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Forecasting the COVID-19 Epidemic for the U.S. Projection Update Paul Ho Thomas A. Lubik Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond∗ Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond† Christian Matthes Indiana University‡ June 9, 2020 ∗ Research Department, P.O. Box 27622, Richmond, VA 23261. Email: paul.ho@rich.frb.org. Research Department, P.O. Box 27622, Richmond, VA 23261. Email: thomas.lubik@rich.frb.org. ‡ Wylie Hall, 100 South Woodlawn Avenue, Bloomington, IN 47405. Email: matthesc@iu.edu. † 1 United States 4 10 6 cumulative cases 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 new cases 0 April 2 10 4 10 5 July April cumulative deaths July new deaths 3000 1.5 2000 1 1000 0.5 0 0 April July April 2 July District of Columbia 2 10 4 cumulative cases new cases 400 1.5 300 1 200 0.5 100 0 0 April July April cumulative deaths July new deaths 1500 25 20 1000 15 10 500 5 0 0 April July April 3 July Maryland 10 4 cumulative cases new cases 2000 10 1500 8 6 1000 4 500 2 0 0 April July April cumulative deaths July new deaths 8000 150 6000 100 4000 50 2000 0 0 April July April 4 July North Carolina 10 10 4 cumulative cases new cases 2000 8 1500 6 1000 4 500 2 0 0 April July April cumulative deaths July new deaths 4000 80 3000 60 2000 40 1000 20 0 0 April July April 5 July South Carolina 3 10 4 cumulative cases new cases 500 400 2 300 200 1 100 0 0 April July April cumulative deaths July new deaths 1500 40 30 1000 20 500 10 0 0 April July April 6 July Virginia 2.5 10 5 cumulative cases new cases 4000 2 3000 1.5 2000 1 1000 0.5 0 0 April July April cumulative deaths July new deaths 150 10000 8000 100 6000 4000 50 2000 0 0 April July April 7 July West Virginia cumulative cases new cases 4000 100 3000 80 60 2000 40 1000 20 0 0 April July April cumulative deaths July new deaths 200 6 150 4 100 2 50 0 0 April July April 8 July
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