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January

mittee chose a tentative
3 to 7 percent

target range of

for M2 last July.

Reserve

is giving

getingr'

The FOMC

terpret
While

M2 seems to be durably

to nominal

income

over periods

months

or longer,

sitivity

to interest-rate

its usefulness

related

its substantial
changes

as a short-run

course

for monetary

the level of interest

however,

the FOMC

rates may need to
to unanticipated

to tolerate

measures. Generally, M I includes balances
cludes M I plus household savings assets.
2. In fact, even with the increased volatility
in the 1980s, the velocity of M2 appears to
be stationary around a constant mean level,

is to substantialrates,

although it may be more interest sensitive.

might be willing
outside

3. See Moore, George R., Richard D.
Porter, and David H. Small, "Modeling the

its

speci fied ranges.
Finally,
sensitivity

the difficulty

posed by interest

of M2 is strictly

tween M2, prices,

presented at the Federal Reserve Board Conference on Monetary Aggregates and Finan-

a problem

over the short run. The relationship

economy.

and income

cial Sector Behavior in Interdependent

be-

Economies, May 1988.

remains

4. For a thorough analysis of deposit-rate

intact over the long run. Consequently,
As Federal

Reserve

Greenspan

noted in his testimony

before

Congress

should

not conclude

Chairman

in February

Alan

targets

in achieving

term policy objective

5. Congressional testimony of Alan

the longer-

Greenspan, Chairman, Board of Governors

of price stability.

that the Federal

by John B. Carlson and
John N. McElravey

behavior see Moore et al.

for M2 may prove to be espe-

cially useful

1988, one

Money and Velocity
in the 1980s

Disaggregated Demands for M2 and M I in
the 1980's: The U.S. Experience," a paper

the large short-run

of M2 may be consistent

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

used in making transactions, while M2 in-

of

eco-

As the past several

growing

M2 growth

eCONOMIC
COMMeNTORY

Footnotes

recent issue, for definitions of these

If the net

ly change

nomic conditions.

with a steadily

policy.

were

to allow for the uncertainty

1. See the Federal Reserve Bulletin, any

the best

result of policy actions

years have shown,
variability

to determine

target ques-

M2's

•

to in-

on the

the economy

makes

tar-

in conjunction

sen-

in 1988, from 3 to 4 percent-

about how interest

information

aggregates

with other data on the performance

widened

vary in response

will continue

of 18

tionable.

age points,

target ranges

incoming

monetary

up on monetary

P

of the Federal Reserve System; February 23,

rior to 1980, a sharp slowdown

-

1988; Monetary Policy Objectives for 1988.

the money

supply

associated

with a downturn

nomic activity.

was expected

Indeed

was still expressed

John B. Carlson is an economist at the
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. John N.
The I'iews stated herein are those of the

money

supply

precipitously.'

despite

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or of the

measures

rates of

M I and M2

System.

has remained

evidence

growth

is becoming

reflecting

suggests

to changes

P.O. Box 6387

BULK RATE
U.S. Postage Paid
Cleveland, OH
Permit No. 385

affected

has affected

inal income
economic

Cleveland, OH 44101

and

of financial

tion and disinflation.
of the interest-rate
interest

rates may need to vary in
to shocks

to prespecify

to the editor.
Requested:

Please send corrected

mailing label to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland,

it

for policymakers
money

Department,

P.O. Box 6387, Cleveland,

OH 44101

)SSN 0428-1276

an increased sensitivity of money to
interest rates. The implications for
the role of money in the monetary
policy process are also discussed.

of interest-

relatively

In effect,

a substantial

M I growth
usually

during

small.

slowdown

this period

associated

aggregate

spending

economic

activity.

in M I growth

changes

in economic

Indeed,

Reserve

ly relied on M I as a gauge
tary policy during

in
for

to mirror
activity

made it a

for monetary

the Federal

in

and, therefore,
This tendency

changes

useful guidepost

in

was

with a slowdown

policy.
increasing-

for mone-

growth
supply

different.

It had a systematic

ship to interest
before

The apparent
During

the current

of the M I veloc-

was not inherent.
decade,

has varied substantially
in interest

has declined

1982, it is not evident

following

M I velocity

with changes

rates (see chart 2). More-

over, while M I velocity
since

over

stability

ity trend, however,

Cost and the

The substantial

any identifiable

that it is
trend path.

is somewhat

studies,

interest

demand

interest

in

demand.r' In these
is viewed

of its opportunity

lower-yielding

of

(M 1, M2) and

is being confirmed

money

foregone

sensitivity

aggregates

of money

function

to

stable over long periods.i

• Opportunity
Aggregates

studies

relation-

rates in the short run

1980, but was, and continues

be, relatively

the monetary

the 1970s.

The case of M2 velocity

Research

to

The behavior of money has changed
greatly in the 1980s. This article identifies the newly emerging patterns in
money and its relationship to
economic activity. These new patterns, largely a consequence of both
deregulation and disinflation, reveal

their velocities

about how

to the economy,

an appropriate

rate for the nation's

Please send copies

Address Correction

difficult

re-

of

and the uncertainty

has become
that

in the

Given the degree
sensitivity

appeared

M I

related

deregula-

money,
response

provided

patterns

of M I and M2 ultimately

flect the effects

materials

money

This Economic Commentary discusses
velocities

of reprinted

of the

activity.

how the newly emerging

the source is credited.

sen-

hence has

the link between

along a 3-

I). While

rates, the impact

rate changes

ratio of nom-

to money-and

1959 to 1980,

was systematically

interest

in inter-

the behavior

of money-the

From

grew smoothly

-

of

est rates. In turn, this interest-rate
sitivity

in ecoin the behav-

trend (see chart

velocity

more variable,

some bank deposits

to nominal
to be one of

This was evident

M I velocity

that money

sensitivity

of money

was once thought

ior of M I velocity.

by the

increasing

velocity

income
nomics.

strong,

caused

Velocity Trends

The relationship

percent

Recent

is also dis-

the most stable relationships

1988 drought.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Research Department

•
in

Nevertheless,

the problems

the short run. This problem
cussed.

this concern

by some analysts

slowed

the economy

authors and not necessarily those of the

in

to be

in eco-

1987 and 1988 as the growth

Mclilravey is a research analyst at the Bank.

Material may be reprinted

15, 1989

income

money

as a

cost-the
of holding

balances.

As

this cost of holding

money

demand

falls (and velocity

increases).

for money

The opportunity

given deposit

typically

rises, the
cost of a

is measured

by

the difference between the market interest rate on a relatively risk-free, shortterm asset (such as the 3-month
Treasury bill) and the rate paid on that
deposit (its own-rate).
Prior to financial deregulation, beginning in the late 1970s, virtually all
checkable deposits were noninterest
bearing. Thus, the opportunity cost of
M I balances--comprised
of currency
and checkable deposits-was
essentially equal to the Treasury-bill rate. Interest rates drifted upward over most of
the postwar period. Rate levels at the
trough of each recession were higher
than at the previous trough (see chart
2). Money balances continually became more expensive to hold as interest rates and inflation rose. Economizing on money balances motivated
individuals and businesses to find innovative ways to arrange portfolios
and to execute transactions while keeping a minimum of checkable deposits.
Some innovations during the 1970s circumvented regulations on financial institutions. Interest-rate ceilings, for in-

•

Disinflation

and Financial

Deregulation
Disinflation and financial deregulation
greatly affected the opportunity cost of
money and its velocity. Disinflation
resulted in sharply falling interest rates,
reversing the upward trend that dated
back to the 1950s. Deregulation allowed banks to compete more effectively for funds by offering interest-bearing checking accounts and market rates
of interest on saving and time deposits.
The opportunity cost of most bank
deposits fell markedly after 1982 when
market rates fell and when banks
priced deposits more competitively.
The combined impact perhaps was
greatest on individual checking accounts. For these deposits, the opportunity cost fell from a high of 18 percent in 1980 to almost zero in 1986.
Because banks can now price these
deposits competitively, it would seem
doubtful that their opportunity cost
would ever soar as high as it did in the
early 1980s. Moreover, the long-run, 3percent growth trend in M I velocity
now appears to have been an artifact of

stance, kept banks from paying higher
rates as market rates increased. New
deposit-like instruments, such as
money market mutual funds, were

secularly rising inflation and interest
rates in a regulated environment. On
the other hand, the long-run trendless
nature of M2 velocity seems unaf-

created to meet the demand of investors for higher yields on their funds,
while maintaining their liquidity.

fected by the events of the 1980s.

others in response to rising market
rates. For example, the own-rate on
other checkable deposits (OCDs) rises
more slowly because it increases a
bank's cost of funds more than an increase in the own-rate on time deposits.
This is because a change in the rates
paid on OCDs affects all existing balances, whereas a change in the rates
paid on time deposits affects only
newly acquired deposits."
The net impact of these tactics is that
bank deposits have become more interest sensitive. Some have speculated
that this may reflect the increased

CHART 1
Ratio
8

aware of alternative assets. Thus, they
are more likely to respond to changes
in opportunity cost.
• Recent Patterns
The opportunity cost of OCDs fell substantially with the decline in the
Treasury-bill rate from 1984 until early
1987. The decline in opportunity cost
spurred rapid growth in these accounts.
As rates started rising in 1987, how-

ment of M2, are responsible for much
of the recent slowdown in M2 growth
in the second half of 1988.

7
6
5

3
M2 velocity

2

o

1960

1963

SOURCE:

15
12

'\

J

'1...//

.

9

Reviewing the experience of the past
three years provides a good example of
how the portfolio effects of M2 opportunity cost work (see chart 3). Interest
rates, opportunity cost, and inflation
were approaching their lows in 1986.
M2 grew at a rapid rate and, at the end
of the year, its level was above the
upper bound of the annual target range
established for it by the Federal
Reserve.

6

T-bill yield

4

3

Although growth in the economy
remained strong in 1987, M2 still fell
substantially below the bottom of its
annual target range because interest

o
3~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--~1960

1963

portunity cost of various deposits constant. With this kind of behavior, interest-rate changes should have less effect

overnight basis and thereby earn

on aggregates of these deposits. This
would seem especially likely for M2
because there are no interest ceil ings
on 83 percent of its deposits.

risen sharply during 1988. It seems
likely that deposit holders would shift

second half of 1988.

I

through which their corporate customers could conveniently purchase
securities owned by the bank on an

sluggish. Banks tend to raise rates on
some deposits more slowly than on

1987

Percent
~18

5

CHART 3
Ratio

ing of some types of deposits is quite

1984

,
1\
\/" \

the first half of 1988. OCD growth
moderated as short-term rates climbed
in the second half of 1988. The ownrate on OCDs has not kept pace with
the increase in market rates, so that the
opportunity cost has again widened.
The interest sensitivity of OCDs accounts for a large part of the post-1980

to adjust to changes in market rates,
making their opportunity costs variable. The opportunity costs of OCDs,
MMDAs, and savings deposits all have

1981

,

tion. In principle, banks can, if they
wish, alter most of their own deposit
rates promptly in response to changes
in market rates and thereby keep the op-

all their deposit rates one-for-one with
movements in market rates. Experience
after deregulation indicates that repric-

1978

6

Also, cash management practices of

In fact, however, banks do not adjust

1975

7

businesses evolved as the rising opportunity cost made bank deposits less attractive relative to market instruments.
Banks began to offer arrangements

and less money was held for the same
amount of transactions and, by definition, velocity increased.

1972

Ratio
8 ~------

SOURCE:

Own-rates on savings deposits and
money market deposit accounts
(MMDAs) in M2 also have been slow

1969

CHART 2

ever, OCD growth dropped off sharply.
Market rates declined after the stockmarket crash, and OCDs surged during

variability of M I velocity.

1966

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

What is curious is that, in the short run,
most bank deposits appear more interest sensitive now than before deregula-

market yields on funds otherwise held
in non interest-bearing deposits. The
net effect of the evolution of these innovations and practices was that less

Rates paid on small time-deposits, also
a large part of M2, have been more
responsive to market rates, and their opportunity cost has varied less than that
of the nontime deposits. As a consequence, small time-deposits have
grown more rapidly than the others,
though not enough to offset weakness
in the other M2 components in the

4

sophistication of most deposit holders
and the improved information and communications technologies that have
made funds transfers more convenient.
Even if opportunity costs were less affected by changes in interest rates now
than before deregulation, deposit
holders are much more conscious and

out of these assets into more competitively priced instruments. These accounts, which comprise a large seg-

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

rates and opportunity cost rose, and inflation accelerated. Falling market interest rates after the stock-market crash
spurred M2 growth to about 8 percent

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Percent

1.9.....----------------------------------------------------,

,'

8

M2 opportunity costa, \

1.8

I,

I

1.7

through June 1988. A series of policy
tightening moves by the Federal
Reserve during the spring and summer
raised market rates, which led to M2

6

growth below the midpoint of its 1988
range by late in the year.

4

•

Policy Implications

As the traditional relationship between
M I and nominal income broke down,
2

1.6
1 .5 L...&--'-....L. ....•...•
.A--lL.....J. •..••.••.••.••••••..&.....&.....L--'--'-..L-.&......I--'--'-

1960

1963

a. Two-quarter
SOURCE:

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

moving average.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

...•...•.&.....<L......I.•..••.••.•....&......&......&......I--'-_0
1981

1984

1987

M I became less useful in the monetary
policy process. The Federal Reserve's
Federal Open Market Committeee
(FOMC) dropped M I from its reported
objectives in 1987; M2 has received
the most attention since then. In
February, the FOMC chooses and
reports its targets for M2 and other
financial objectives for 1989. The Com-

the difference between the market interest rate on a relatively risk-free, shortterm asset (such as the 3-month
Treasury bill) and the rate paid on that
deposit (its own-rate).
Prior to financial deregulation, beginning in the late 1970s, virtually all
checkable deposits were noninterest
bearing. Thus, the opportunity cost of
M I balances--comprised
of currency
and checkable deposits-was
essentially equal to the Treasury-bill rate. Interest rates drifted upward over most of
the postwar period. Rate levels at the
trough of each recession were higher
than at the previous trough (see chart
2). Money balances continually became more expensive to hold as interest rates and inflation rose. Economizing on money balances motivated
individuals and businesses to find innovative ways to arrange portfolios
and to execute transactions while keeping a minimum of checkable deposits.
Some innovations during the 1970s circumvented regulations on financial institutions. Interest-rate ceilings, for in-

•

Disinflation

and Financial

Deregulation
Disinflation and financial deregulation
greatly affected the opportunity cost of
money and its velocity. Disinflation
resulted in sharply falling interest rates,
reversing the upward trend that dated
back to the 1950s. Deregulation allowed banks to compete more effectively for funds by offering interest-bearing checking accounts and market rates
of interest on saving and time deposits.
The opportunity cost of most bank
deposits fell markedly after 1982 when
market rates fell and when banks
priced deposits more competitively.
The combined impact perhaps was
greatest on individual checking accounts. For these deposits, the opportunity cost fell from a high of 18 percent in 1980 to almost zero in 1986.
Because banks can now price these
deposits competitively, it would seem
doubtful that their opportunity cost
would ever soar as high as it did in the
early 1980s. Moreover, the long-run, 3percent growth trend in M I velocity
now appears to have been an artifact of

stance, kept banks from paying higher
rates as market rates increased. New
deposit-like instruments, such as
money market mutual funds, were

secularly rising inflation and interest
rates in a regulated environment. On
the other hand, the long-run trendless
nature of M2 velocity seems unaf-

created to meet the demand of investors for higher yields on their funds,
while maintaining their liquidity.

fected by the events of the 1980s.

others in response to rising market
rates. For example, the own-rate on
other checkable deposits (OCDs) rises
more slowly because it increases a
bank's cost of funds more than an increase in the own-rate on time deposits.
This is because a change in the rates
paid on OCDs affects all existing balances, whereas a change in the rates
paid on time deposits affects only
newly acquired deposits."
The net impact of these tactics is that
bank deposits have become more interest sensitive. Some have speculated
that this may reflect the increased

CHART 1
Ratio
8

aware of alternative assets. Thus, they
are more likely to respond to changes
in opportunity cost.
• Recent Patterns
The opportunity cost of OCDs fell substantially with the decline in the
Treasury-bill rate from 1984 until early
1987. The decline in opportunity cost
spurred rapid growth in these accounts.
As rates started rising in 1987, how-

ment of M2, are responsible for much
of the recent slowdown in M2 growth
in the second half of 1988.

7
6
5

3
M2 velocity

2

o

1960

1963

SOURCE:

15
12

'\

J

'1...//

.

9

Reviewing the experience of the past
three years provides a good example of
how the portfolio effects of M2 opportunity cost work (see chart 3). Interest
rates, opportunity cost, and inflation
were approaching their lows in 1986.
M2 grew at a rapid rate and, at the end
of the year, its level was above the
upper bound of the annual target range
established for it by the Federal
Reserve.

6

T-bill yield

4

3

Although growth in the economy
remained strong in 1987, M2 still fell
substantially below the bottom of its
annual target range because interest

o
3~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~--~1960

1963

portunity cost of various deposits constant. With this kind of behavior, interest-rate changes should have less effect

overnight basis and thereby earn

on aggregates of these deposits. This
would seem especially likely for M2
because there are no interest ceil ings
on 83 percent of its deposits.

risen sharply during 1988. It seems
likely that deposit holders would shift

second half of 1988.

I

through which their corporate customers could conveniently purchase
securities owned by the bank on an

sluggish. Banks tend to raise rates on
some deposits more slowly than on

1987

Percent
~18

5

CHART 3
Ratio

ing of some types of deposits is quite

1984

,
1\
\/" \

the first half of 1988. OCD growth
moderated as short-term rates climbed
in the second half of 1988. The ownrate on OCDs has not kept pace with
the increase in market rates, so that the
opportunity cost has again widened.
The interest sensitivity of OCDs accounts for a large part of the post-1980

to adjust to changes in market rates,
making their opportunity costs variable. The opportunity costs of OCDs,
MMDAs, and savings deposits all have

1981

,

tion. In principle, banks can, if they
wish, alter most of their own deposit
rates promptly in response to changes
in market rates and thereby keep the op-

all their deposit rates one-for-one with
movements in market rates. Experience
after deregulation indicates that repric-

1978

6

Also, cash management practices of

In fact, however, banks do not adjust

1975

7

businesses evolved as the rising opportunity cost made bank deposits less attractive relative to market instruments.
Banks began to offer arrangements

and less money was held for the same
amount of transactions and, by definition, velocity increased.

1972

Ratio
8 ~------

SOURCE:

Own-rates on savings deposits and
money market deposit accounts
(MMDAs) in M2 also have been slow

1969

CHART 2

ever, OCD growth dropped off sharply.
Market rates declined after the stockmarket crash, and OCDs surged during

variability of M I velocity.

1966

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

What is curious is that, in the short run,
most bank deposits appear more interest sensitive now than before deregula-

market yields on funds otherwise held
in non interest-bearing deposits. The
net effect of the evolution of these innovations and practices was that less

Rates paid on small time-deposits, also
a large part of M2, have been more
responsive to market rates, and their opportunity cost has varied less than that
of the nontime deposits. As a consequence, small time-deposits have
grown more rapidly than the others,
though not enough to offset weakness
in the other M2 components in the

4

sophistication of most deposit holders
and the improved information and communications technologies that have
made funds transfers more convenient.
Even if opportunity costs were less affected by changes in interest rates now
than before deregulation, deposit
holders are much more conscious and

out of these assets into more competitively priced instruments. These accounts, which comprise a large seg-

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

rates and opportunity cost rose, and inflation accelerated. Falling market interest rates after the stock-market crash
spurred M2 growth to about 8 percent

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Percent

1.9.....----------------------------------------------------,

,'

8

M2 opportunity costa, \

1.8

I,

I

1.7

through June 1988. A series of policy
tightening moves by the Federal
Reserve during the spring and summer
raised market rates, which led to M2

6

growth below the midpoint of its 1988
range by late in the year.

4

•

Policy Implications

As the traditional relationship between
M I and nominal income broke down,
2

1.6
1 .5 L...&--'-....L. ....•...•
.A--lL.....J. •..••.••.••.••••••..&.....&.....L--'--'-..L-.&......I--'--'-

1960

1963

a. Two-quarter
SOURCE:

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

moving average.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

...•...•.&.....<L......I.•..••.••.•....&......&......&......I--'-_0
1981

1984

1987

M I became less useful in the monetary
policy process. The Federal Reserve's
Federal Open Market Committeee
(FOMC) dropped M I from its reported
objectives in 1987; M2 has received
the most attention since then. In
February, the FOMC chooses and
reports its targets for M2 and other
financial objectives for 1989. The Com-

January

mittee chose a tentative
3 to 7 percent

target range of

for M2 last July.

Reserve

is giving

getingr'

The FOMC

terpret
While

M2 seems to be durably

to nominal

income

over periods

months

or longer,

sitivity

to interest-rate

its usefulness

related

its substantial
changes

as a short-run

course

for monetary

the level of interest

however,

the FOMC

rates may need to
to unanticipated

to tolerate

measures. Generally, M I includes balances
cludes M I plus household savings assets.
2. In fact, even with the increased volatility
in the 1980s, the velocity of M2 appears to
be stationary around a constant mean level,

is to substantialrates,

although it may be more interest sensitive.

might be willing
outside

3. See Moore, George R., Richard D.
Porter, and David H. Small, "Modeling the

its

speci fied ranges.
Finally,
sensitivity

the difficulty

posed by interest

of M2 is strictly

tween M2, prices,

presented at the Federal Reserve Board Conference on Monetary Aggregates and Finan-

a problem

over the short run. The relationship

economy.

and income

cial Sector Behavior in Interdependent

be-

Economies, May 1988.

remains

4. For a thorough analysis of deposit-rate

intact over the long run. Consequently,
As Federal

Reserve

Greenspan

noted in his testimony

before

Congress

should

not conclude

Chairman

in February

Alan

targets

in achieving

term policy objective

5. Congressional testimony of Alan

the longer-

Greenspan, Chairman, Board of Governors

of price stability.

that the Federal

by John B. Carlson and
John N. McElravey

behavior see Moore et al.

for M2 may prove to be espe-

cially useful

1988, one

Money and Velocity
in the 1980s

Disaggregated Demands for M2 and M I in
the 1980's: The U.S. Experience," a paper

the large short-run

of M2 may be consistent

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

used in making transactions, while M2 in-

of

eco-

As the past several

growing

M2 growth

eCONOMIC
COMMeNTORY

Footnotes

recent issue, for definitions of these

If the net

ly change

nomic conditions.

with a steadily

policy.

were

to allow for the uncertainty

1. See the Federal Reserve Bulletin, any

the best

result of policy actions

years have shown,
variability

to determine

target ques-

M2's

•

to in-

on the

the economy

makes

tar-

in conjunction

sen-

in 1988, from 3 to 4 percent-

about how interest

information

aggregates

with other data on the performance

widened

vary in response

will continue

of 18

tionable.

age points,

target ranges

incoming

monetary

up on monetary

P

of the Federal Reserve System; February 23,

rior to 1980, a sharp slowdown

-

1988; Monetary Policy Objectives for 1988.

the money

supply

associated

with a downturn

nomic activity.

was expected

Indeed

was still expressed

John B. Carlson is an economist at the
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. John N.
The I'iews stated herein are those of the

money

supply

precipitously.'

despite

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or of the

measures

rates of

M I and M2

System.

has remained

evidence

growth

is becoming

reflecting

suggests

to changes

P.O. Box 6387

BULK RATE
U.S. Postage Paid
Cleveland, OH
Permit No. 385

affected

has affected

inal income
economic

Cleveland, OH 44101

and

of financial

tion and disinflation.
of the interest-rate
interest

rates may need to vary in
to shocks

to prespecify

to the editor.
Requested:

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mailing label to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland,

it

for policymakers
money

Department,

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OH 44101

)SSN 0428-1276

an increased sensitivity of money to
interest rates. The implications for
the role of money in the monetary
policy process are also discussed.

of interest-

relatively

In effect,

a substantial

M I growth
usually

during

small.

slowdown

this period

associated

aggregate

spending

economic

activity.

in M I growth

changes

in economic

Indeed,

Reserve

ly relied on M I as a gauge
tary policy during

in
for

to mirror
activity

made it a

for monetary

the Federal

in

and, therefore,
This tendency

changes

useful guidepost

in

was

with a slowdown

policy.
increasing-

for mone-

growth
supply

different.

It had a systematic

ship to interest
before

The apparent
During

the current

of the M I veloc-

was not inherent.
decade,

has varied substantially
in interest

has declined

1982, it is not evident

following

M I velocity

with changes

rates (see chart 2). More-

over, while M I velocity
since

over

stability

ity trend, however,

Cost and the

The substantial

any identifiable

that it is
trend path.

is somewhat

studies,

interest

demand

interest

in

demand.r' In these
is viewed

of its opportunity

lower-yielding

of

(M 1, M2) and

is being confirmed

money

foregone

sensitivity

aggregates

of money

function

to

stable over long periods.i

• Opportunity
Aggregates

studies

relation-

rates in the short run

1980, but was, and continues

be, relatively

the monetary

the 1970s.

The case of M2 velocity

Research

to

The behavior of money has changed
greatly in the 1980s. This article identifies the newly emerging patterns in
money and its relationship to
economic activity. These new patterns, largely a consequence of both
deregulation and disinflation, reveal

their velocities

about how

to the economy,

an appropriate

rate for the nation's

Please send copies

Address Correction

difficult

re-

of

and the uncertainty

has become
that

in the

Given the degree
sensitivity

appeared

M I

related

deregula-

money,
response

provided

patterns

of M I and M2 ultimately

flect the effects

materials

money

This Economic Commentary discusses
velocities

of reprinted

of the

activity.

how the newly emerging

the source is credited.

sen-

hence has

the link between

along a 3-

I). While

rates, the impact

rate changes

ratio of nom-

to money-and

1959 to 1980,

was systematically

interest

in inter-

the behavior

of money-the

From

grew smoothly

-

of

est rates. In turn, this interest-rate
sitivity

in ecoin the behav-

trend (see chart

velocity

more variable,

some bank deposits

to nominal
to be one of

This was evident

M I velocity

that money

sensitivity

of money

was once thought

ior of M I velocity.

by the

increasing

velocity

income
nomics.

strong,

caused

Velocity Trends

The relationship

percent

Recent

is also dis-

the most stable relationships

1988 drought.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Research Department

•
in

Nevertheless,

the problems

the short run. This problem
cussed.

this concern

by some analysts

slowed

the economy

authors and not necessarily those of the

in

to be

in eco-

1987 and 1988 as the growth

Mclilravey is a research analyst at the Bank.

Material may be reprinted

15, 1989

income

money

as a

cost-the
of holding

balances.

As

this cost of holding

money

demand

falls (and velocity

increases).

for money

The opportunity

given deposit

typically

rises, the
cost of a

is measured

by