Full text of E.2 Survey of Terms of Business Lending : May 1967
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REVISION FEDERAL RESERVE !'ii'Ann i K ' s t a t i s t i c a l r e l e a s e F TILK-.J-KDKKA ORT-TKKM I'.RS I'I'.IIRI'ARV R-R>, I U All s i x e s ' Feb 1 : Interest rate ( p e r c e n t p e r ' annum) l ess than 5 1 '27 Over 5 Over 5 Over 6 61/2. Over b 1/2 3 1U and ..! 1/2 Total Total Total . 5 V2" - 5 3/4" i n c l u s i v e . . - 6"' i n c l u s i v e less than b 1 / 2 ' . . . and less than 7,1 5.0 b. 100.0 per c e n t - Dollar amount - Nu-mBer of < loans 1 | >•) $'i()0 ,QOO-$V9'-' Fell. 1^67 1 . 2 27. b " i !•'>. b b. b b. 2 b. 1 ion.0 100.0 8.2 15. 61 12. 1 2b. o . I 5.45% Dinar in thm-and,. ^ ^ ' j % ' j • 1 : 5 85S/;26 54V,21% : >i I n . ' 1 ' ... 1.891,845 897 6.13 b. 3 3 6, 7 b. 13 35 c e n t e r s 5.89 6.08 6.5 5.86 New York C i t v b. 3 V 6.57 7 other Northeast .6.17 h. I I 8 North Central ^.">3 . ^ ..08 7 Southeast A. 1 3 6. 27 I b. 1 8 8 Southwest. b^49 4 West C o a s t .1 t o i n c o r p o r a t e etian s been rev \/ B e g i n n i n g w i t h t h i s r e l e a s e , t h e Q u a r t e r 1 v S u r v o v of I n t e r e s t : R a t e s on l.o.i of r e p o r t i n g p e r i oris t h e schediT n .ulcl i t i ifi t h e s a m p l e of r e p o r t i n g h a n k s , and in t h e - f o r m a t f o r p u b l i c a t i o n o | t o e <1,it on of t h e r e v i s e d s e r i e s d e s c r i p t i s h i f t e d f r o m t h e l a s t month of e a c h c a l e n d a r q u a r t e r t o t h e m i d d l e mop to ot tV 7 W forthcoming April Federal Reserve B u l l e t i n . C~G> € C '/* ^ ° ^ M ! 1 & 7 1/ C (-0 f~' A * . 7 . ^ - 7 ^ , - ... 100.0 5b,20A ,i.% . . in.. 3.790,782^ 35,900 I'eh. Ftlb^_l^bi 0. 2.(1 3.1 O.I 7'.... $ 1 00;, O O P - $ . / l l ' ^ / / # ^ / $ S" C FC 5. 90 5.77 6.09 5'. 95 6.03 ' .! . fejexat l?.ese/t 1/c . &vlt<T>r M A y J967* Revision in Quarterly Survey of Interest Rates on Business Loans » ; ' • The Federal Reserve Quarterly Survey of Interest Rates Charged by^Banks on Bysiness Loans has been revised beginning with the first Survey in 1967. While the changes are numerous, they do not alter the basic character of the Survey. Rather, they are generally in the nature of adjustments or refinements, designed to improve the quality of the information collected and published and to take account of shifts in the structure * of bank lending to businesses since the last revision of the Survey in 1948. Nevertheless, , in the aggregate, they do have a small effect on the averages, and they preclude precise comparability between the old and the revised series. The new data will appear regularly in the BULLETIN beginning with this issue (see page 814) and also in the Board's E.2 press release. borrow at lower, rates than small firms—in the first or final months of each quarter of the calendar year. f„ Exclusions. To provide for increased | ? homogeneity in the character of the loans reported, two types of loans are being exeluded from the Survey—namely, loans to foreign businesses and business instalment loans. It has been found that these two types of loans were not reported by a substaritial number of banks in the old Survey. Moreover, the rates charged on both types Of loans are generally higher than those charged on regular business loans to domestic customers, and they are Subject to different influences. Thus, the exclusions ^ should result in rate averages that are somewhat lower but more representative of normal business loans than those previously available. u NATURE AND PURPOSE OF CHANGES " Business instalment loans are mgre simir ' . lar to consumer instalment loans than to The most apparent change is in.the schedother commercial and industrial loans made ule of reporting periods, which his been by banks—including regular term loans, shifted from the last m o n t h # each calendar which often are repayable in instalments. quarter to the middle month of the quarter. The typical instalment loan is an iritprThus, the first survey on the revised basis mediate-term credit for financing specific covers new loans and renewals of outstanditems of machinery or equipment, and it is . i ing loans made during the first 15 calendar usually secured by a chattel mortgage on * days of February, and subsequent surveys that asset. The effective interest rate is will cover loans made in the first half generally almost twice the stated rate, beof May, August, and November. The prin- -. cause the stated rate is applied to the original cipal reason for this change in schedule is amount of the loan rather than to the deto avoid distortions in the interest rate e clining balance, as in the case of regular averages stemming from the large and varibusiness term Ipans. In large banks, business able amounts of borrowing for income tax instalment loans often are administered in a payments by large firms—which are able to separate (instalment loan department along ^ r . 721 I , - . . lj 1 _: • • -j\ ; 722 with automobile and other consumer loans, and the rates and other terms applicable to such loans tend to be influenced by developments in consumer lending. It is recognized that banks extend a subsiantial volume of credit to businesses, particularly smaller businesses, through instalment loans. Thus, rate information on these loans is needed in order to obtain a complete picture on the structure and level of rates charged on business loans. _But in view of the small average size of busi9 ness instalment loans;" their special rate characteristics, and their separate administration at respondent banks, the present Sur-vey does not provide! an optimum arrangemerit for collecting rate information on this type of credit. The exclusion of foreign loans alsO^wHl help to improve the usefulness of the series « as a measure of rates charged on loans to domestic businesses. Because of the greater difficulty in credit review and the,frequently larger risk in extending credit to foreign than : to domestic customers," the^e loans tend to have higher rates than domestic loans. Their exclusion will ease the reporting burden on respondent banks because foreign loans often are administered in a separate department of the bank. Reporting. Modifications have also been made in the reporting of Foan ; maturities/ The major change |has been to substitute a three-way for a twio-way maturity classification. Previously, respondents were asked I to indicate for each loan whether it had a* .maturity of 1 year or less (short-term loan) lor more than 1 year (term loan); in the revised Survey, a new category has been added to cover revolving credits. In the past, published rates were .based . only on the short-term ioans, because the term loans reported in each Survey'werp'not sufficiently F E D E R A L ; R E S E R V E BULLETIN • MAY 1 9 6 7 numerous or. homogeneous to yield analytically useful rate averages. A separate category for revolving credits will increase the homogeneity of the rate information reported and make the resulting;averages more meaningful. These credits,1 while generally governed by a contract of 1 to 2 years maturity, often are disbursed through short-term notes of, say, 90 days maturity. Thus, the rates charged on these are more similar to those on term loans than to short-term loans. Also, the rates on the individual notes made under revolving credits ntay not necessarily reflect the current level of rates on hew loans. Since re, volving credit loans in the previous Survey . were reported as short-term loans by some respondents and a§ term loans by others, the rate information for both categories Will be improved by the separation. In addition, for each ordinary term loan reported, respondents are now^being asked to state the maturity date. This information will provide the basis for some analysis not only of the maturity structure of term loans but also of the relationship between interest rates and loan maturity. A decision regarding possible publication of information on term loan rates is being deferred until the results of several Surveys have been analyzed. To obtain a somewhat more precise measure than formerly of the interest cost on business loans, the revised Survey requires respondents to indicate whether- the interest charge is calculated on a discount basis or accrued on the unpaid balance. Where a discount basis is used, the actual interest cost to the borrower is slightly higher than the stated rate. With the additional information on the method of calculating interest, all rates can;be converted to a uniform effectiverate basis. In addition, this information can INTEREST RATES ON BUSINESS LOANS 723 be used for observing and analyzing any. in the Appendix, page 727) instead of three shifts that might occur, either cyclically or (New York City, other northern and eastern secularly, in the methods banks use in comcities, and southern and western cities), puting interest charges. > Weighting procedure! In the revised SurExpanded coverage. In keeping with the vey the reported information on interest traditional orientation of the Survey to prorates will be converted into averages by vide information on interest rates charged using weighting procedures similar to those by large banks in financial centers, the panel employed in the old Survey.1 However, beof respondents has been enlarged to reflect cause of significant shifts oyer the years in changes in the structure of business lending the size and area distribution of bank loans since the previous panel was selected. The to business, "the weights derived from the number of financial centers covered by the 1946 Survey were no longer appropriate. Survey has been raised from 19 to 35 and Moreover, the extensive changes in coverthe number of respondent banks from age incorporated in the current revision 66 to 126. In general, financial centers meant that even if weights derived from reare being included in the Survey if cent interest rate Surveys on the old basis the banking offices in that center had were used, they would not be representative, roughly $150 million or more of business Accordingly, a new set of fixed weights loans outstanding in December 1964. As is to be derived from the revised Survey, a ;rule individual banks i|i each center were Weights to be used in the first three Surveys included if their business loans totaled $40 will be based on the size of loan and area million or more; there were some excepdistribution of the amounts of loans rations where the volume of loans in the reported in the first quarterly Survey. After porting center covered by large respondents the fourth Survey is completed,'new weights was unusually jjiigh and the additional small will be derived from the combined data of banks would not appreciably influence the the first four Surveys, and th^se will be used averages. About five banks in the old reto revise data for those Surveys and in , porting panel fell below the cutoff, and they compiling the series for the next 4 years. At were dropped from the Survey. Respondents the end of this 5-year period, it is planned in the revised Survey, as in the previous one, th'at the weighting system will be reviewed will continue to report information on each and any necessary revisions will be made. loan above prescribed size cutoffs made in (Size categories. Since the last revision of the 15-day reporting period except for the Survey, the size distribution of bank large branch systems, where sampling is loans to businesses has shifted substantially permitted. upward, particularly, toward loans of $1 This expansion in coverage suggested the million and over. This shift has suggested the desirability of refining the geographic groupdesirability of creating additional loan-size ings of reporting centers that are used categories'for publishing information on for calculating and publishing the rate rates and volume of loans reported. The averages. Beginning with the February Suravailability of additional size-of-loan detail vey, average rates will be published for six also should help to pinpoint the rate effects geographic areas (the areas and the reporting centers in the revised Survey are listed - T i ^ > e d e I a l R c s e r v e BULLETIN, March 1949, 234 and 235. , , PP . 724 FEDERAL R E S E R V E BULLETIN • MAY 1 9 6 7 of fluctuations from quarter to quarter in the volume of loans reported, which often are substantial in the larger loan categories. Accordingly, instead of the two major groupings above $100^00 used in the old Survey ($100,000-199,999 and $200,000 and over), the revised Survey has three ($100,000-499,999, $500,000-999,999, , and $ 1,000^000 and over). The BULLETIN table will show not only the interest! fate averages in each loan-siz^ category, as previously, but also the percentage distribution of the dollar amount of loans reported at each rate or in each rate range. This information previously has been avarlable_only in the E.2 press release. per cent larger than the volume reported by the 66 respondents in the old Survey; this smaller increase reflects the fact that the new respondents generally are Smaller. Because the new Survey incorporates changes in both concept and sample, with no provision for complete one-time reporting oi\ both the old and the new basis, it is not possible to isolate all of the effects of the .revisions on the amount of change in shortterm rates between the Surveys in December and in February. However, it has been possible to segregate the data reported in February by the 66 banks in the old Survey that are retained for the new Survey and to tabulate data for these banks separately. These tabulations provide the basis for determining EFFECT OF CHANGES the rate effects for the three revisions in which such effects can be measured— Expansion of the sample has increased both namely, changes in the sample of reporting the number and the volume of loans m banks in the method of calculating fhe efwhich rate information is reported; for the fective rate for discounted loans, and in the number the increase was substantial. In Febweights for size of loan and geographic ruary the 126 respondents in the new Surarea used in calculating the rate averages. vey reported information on nearly 36,000 individual short-term loans. This was 74 The net effects on the short-term rate aver ages of the remaining changes—exclusion of per Cent more than the number reported by foreign, business instalment, and revolving the 66 hanks in the old Survey that were credit loans and change in timing of the Surretained in the new sample, as shown in f able 1. The increase in dollar amount of . vey—cannot be ascertained. The exclusion of foreign and business instalment loans loans reported by all respondents was 28 C O M P A R I S O N OF" SHORT-TERM B U S I N E S S L O A N S R E P O R T E D BY OLD A N D NEW S A M P L E S OF R E S P O N D E N T BANKS, FEBRUARY 1 - 1 5 , 1 9 6 7 ( A m o u n t s arc s h o w n in t h o u s a n d s of d o l l a r s ) Amount sample A|l centers ... New York City.'. Other N o r t h e a s t . . . . . . . . North centra! Southeast Southwest. ; Number ,S„ | -sample 12,969,100 $3,7'X),782j $821,682 . 841,109 398,001 1,058,717 143,812 299,759 227.702 907,419' 616,143, 237,560] 20,594 . 66,310 218.142 ' 545,5741 • » 245,815 18:18 9,858 sample 35,900 15.306 II I] 1 ^ it:}" Increase 2,760" 212 . 1 15.0 I N T E R E S T TABLE R A T E S O N B U S I N E S S L O A N S 7 2 5 1 2 RATES ON SHORT-TERM BUSINESS BANKS, FEBRUARY 1-15, 1967 LOANS REPORTED BY O L D A N D NEW % SAMPLES OF RESPONDENT (Weighted averages; per cent per a n n u m ) Size of loan (in t h o u s a n d s of dollars) Area 10-99 • 100-499 -999 sample '6.73 New York City Other N o r t h e a s t . . North central Southeast 6 ! 08 6.' 29 1.000 and over Old 5.85 6.41 6.06 6.14 6.17 6.27 6.55 6.75 6.80 6.58 6.65 7.26 6.68 6.55 6.75 6.72 6.75 6.93 7.29 6.32 6.50 6.90 6-45 6.71 6.91 1 6.33 6.32 6.57 6.39 6.06 6.27 6.49 6 .'52 6.35 6.08 6.29 6.49 Ig.O, 5,90" , V . 7*7 6.17 6.03 6.13 6.27 6.14 6.06 6.11 6.26 5.92 5.84 5.95 6.03 5.91 5.82 5.95 6.03 NOTE.—All rates are derived in accordance with reporting and processing procedures established for the new Survey. T h u s , they exclude foreign and business instalment foans and revolving credits and are based on weights derived f r o m the size a n d area distribution of loans reported in the February Survey. • would tend to lower the averages while the confined to the old sample of banks arid the exclusion of revolving credit loans and the averages calculated on the basis of the old shift of the reporting "peribd away from procedures. These adjusted rates are comquarterly tax-borrowing months probably parable with the datafoi'-rhjbSurveys in Dewould tend to raise them. The net effect of* cember and earlier on the (fid basis—except all these" changes on the rate averages is for the revisions mentioned above for which likely to be slightly downward. the rate effects cannot be* ascertained. The net effect of the expansion of the in all geographic areas except southern > sample of reporting banks was to raise the and western cities^ tjiie net effects of all meas- . average rate 5 basis points above the level urable changes on the over-all rate averages that would have been obtained from data were small. In other words, the upward reported by the old sample of respondents, rate effects from expansion of the sample as shown in Table 2. In the small loan cateand the new method for calculating interest . gories, rates reported by the new respondon discounted loans were about offset by ents generally tended to be lower than those the downward effects stemming from the revisions in weights, which reflected mainly reported by respondents in the old Survey; the increased influence on the averages of for larger loans, the new respondents charged the larger loans carrying relatively low insomewhat higher rates than did the old.; terest rates. Within individual loan-size cateTable 3 summarizes all the measurable gories, however, the revisions in some cases effects of the revisions on short-term interest were substantial. The effects of the change rates, including the effects of expansion qf in the method used for calculating the inthe sample. In this table the algebraic signs terest charge on discounted loans was much of these effects are the opposite of their greater in New York City and in other actual effect on the level of rates. This makes northern and eastern cities than in southern it possible to derive from the rate averages and western cities—reflecting "differences in shown by the new Survey, through subtracthe volume of discounted loans reported, tion, the rate averages that would have been obtained in February had the Survey been . Discounted loans accounted for almost half 726 F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BULLETIN - MAY 1 9 6 7 the number and one-third the dollar -volume other northern and eastern cities compared of all short-term loans reported by old-Sur- * with less than one-sixth the number and vey respondents in New York City and in dollar amount in southern and western cities. TABLE 3 EFFECTS O F S U R V E Y R E V I S I O N S O N S H O R T - T E R M (Per c e n t per a n n u m ) I N T E R E S T RATES, FEBRUARY 1-15, 1967 1 Size of loan (in thousands of dollars) Rate, and type of adjustment 100-199 Adjustments to eliminate measurable effects of revisions—Total, Expansion of sample Change in rate calculation for discounted loans i Changes in weights ' 200 and over II Average rate, adjusted : New York City: Average rate, new Purvey Adjustments to eliminate measurable effects c Expansion of sample Change in rate calculation for discounted It Changes'in weights j Average rate, adjusted : . . . . .Other northern and eastern "cities: Average rate, new Survey Adjustments to eliminate measurable effects of revisions—Total. Expansion Of sample I Change in rate calculation for discounted loans i n weights i Average rate, adjusted 2 . . . a Southern and western cities: Average rate, new Survey.. 6.531 6.34 . Adjustments to eliminate measurable effects of revisions—Total. Expansion of sample Change in rate calculation for discounted loans > Changes in weights 1 : Average rate, adjusted 2 1 CalculatedJrom data reported by 66 banks in the old Survey. ' The adjusted rates are those that would be obtained by processing the February Survey data from the 66 respondents in the old Survey according to the procedures used in the old Survey. These averages are not entirely comparable with those published for December'end earlier periods because of the exchision of foreign, business instalment, and revolving credit loans and the shift in reporting period for which the rate effects cannot be ascertained. : - -j, .1 ' INTEREST RATES ON BUSINESS: I HANS ' 727 APPENDIX Geographic area Reporting center Geographic area Reporting center New York City New York City Southeast Other Northeast Boston Hartford and Providence Buffalo Nassau County, N.Y. Rochester Newark Philadelphia Baltimore , Richmond j1 *" Washingon, 0.C. Charlotte Atlanta New Orleans Nashville • North central ClevelandPittsburgh Cincinnati Chicago Detroit Indianapolis Milwaukee Minneapdfos-hand St. Paul St. Louis Louisville ™1 Memphis Kansas City , ' Oklahoma City and Tulsa Denver Dallas and Fort Worth ^ Houston . | West coast San Francisco Los Angeles Seattle Portland