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_ a, 3 •• ^.^-11 Our Changing Economy: A BLS Centennial Chartbook U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics 1984 Bulletin 2211 U.S. Department of Labor Raymond J. Donovan, Secretary Bureau of Labor Statistics Janet L. Norwood, Commissioner August 1984 Bulletin 2211 Our Changing Economy: A BLS Centennial Chartbook century ago, in 1884, Con gress established a Bureau of Labor— later named the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Bureau was to be a permanent and indepen dent agency to “ collect information’’ on the earnings and working condi tions of “ laboring men and women.’’ Founded almost 20 years before the Bureau of the Census was established, BLS was thus a forerunner of a Federal statistical establishment that now includes a number of agencies in departments and commissions throughout government. The Bureau’s present program arose from clearly recognizable social needs. For example, during World War I, A the need to adjust wages in shipyards to rapidly rising prices led to the development of a cost-of-living measure that later became the Con sumer Price Index. Other BLS pro grams developed in similar fashion to answer the needs of business, labor, Congress, and the public for informa tion on economic and social trends. Today, the Bureau publishes a wide array of detailed data on the labor force, employment and unemployment, earnings and hours of work, prices and living conditions, industrial rela tions, productivity and economic growth, occupational injuries and ill nesses, and related subjects. This chartbook celebrates 100 years of BLS statistics. Some charts reveal the long continuity of the Bureau’s series; others show the agency’s response to recent demands for data on new or emerging economic phenomena. The booklet gives a graphic picture of some of the changes in the American economy during the past century. The Bureau’s regular publications, listed in the back of the book, contain more comprehen sive and detailed information on changing economic trends. The chartbook was prepared in the Office of Publications by Constance Bogh DiCesare, Chief of the Division of Special Publications, with the cooperation of the various program of fices of the Bureau. Eugene H. Becker was the editor. Material in this publica tion is in the public domain and may, with appropriate credit, be reproduced without permission. 3 Contents Charts Preface Employment and unemployment statistics Pages 1 1 to 11 4 Productivity and technology 12 to 15 16 Wages and industrial relations 16 to 25 22 Prices and living conditions 26 to 37 34 Occupational safety and health 38 to 39 46 Economic growth and employment projections 40 to 43 48 — 52 A note on sources Employment and Unemployment Statistics 4 The labor force grew rapidly in the past century hen the Bureau of Labor Statistics was created in 1884, the American labor force numbered 16 million persons. A century later, the Nation’s work force had grown to over 110 million. Labor force growth came from different sources over the period. In the early decades, European immigrants swell ed the work force. From 1910 to 1940, internal population growth accounted for most of the increase. Since 1950, the increasing proportion of women taking jobs outside the home has been an important contributor to labor force growth. W 5 The labor force consists of employed and unemployed men and women Millions of persons 1 20 — 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 19801983 Chart 1. Civilian labor force by sex, selected years, 1880-1983 Women’s labor force participation increased dramatically after 1950. By 1983, more than half of all women were in the labor force Chart 2. Labor force participation rates by sex, selected years, 1890-1983 Employment and Unemployment Statistics 6 The rising proportion of women in the labor force has many implications he proportion of women who are in the labor force has grown from one-third in 1950 to more than half today. Since 1970, nearly half of the increase has been among women age 25 to 34. In 1983, 1 out of 4 women workers was in this age group. In contrast, of the 32 million women who were full-time homemakers, 6 out of 10 were 45 years or older. Consistent with these developments has been a rise in the proportion of children with a mother in the labor force— to almost 60 percent of school-age children and 48 percent of preschoolers. Although participation rates for men continue to exceed those for women, the gap has nar rowed considerably. Men were 2 - V 2 times as likely as women to be in the labor force in 1950 but are only 1-1/2 times as likely today. T 7 Fewer women are full-time housekeepers Chart 3. Labor force status of women, 1962 and 1983 Women can expect to spend more years in the labor market Chart 4. Life expectancy and worklife expectancy of women, selected years, 1950-80 Employment and Unemployment Statistics 8 Family patterns have continued to change he composition and nature of American families changed very gradually from 1880 to the beginning of World War II. During the war, an un precedented number of women took jobs outside the home, thus altering the traditional pattern of family life. A decline in fertility dating from the mid 1960’s (along with changing attitudes about the role of women) further in creased women's interest in working. The price inflation of recent years, coupled with rising expectations in liv ing standards, also has enforced the trend toward two-earner, marriedcouple families, and there also has been an increase in the number of families maintained by women. T 9 Nearly two-thirds of all marriedcouple families have 2 or more workers Chart 5. Married-couple families by number of workers, 1955 and 1983 The proportion of families maintained by women has increased Chart 6. Families maintained by women as a percent of all families, 1960-83 Employment and Unemployment Statistics 10 Since 1900, employment growth has been shifting from industries that provide goods to those that furnish services ost of the employment growth in the past three decades has been in industries which pro duce services rather than goods. Among the industries creating the greatest number of jobs since 1950 have been State and local govern ment, trade, and services such as health care. In 1983, of the 90 million employees in nonfarm jobs, 67 million, or more than 7 out of 10, worked in service-producing industries. M 11 The shift from goods to services was especially marked after 1950 Proportion of jobs Chart 7. Nonagricultural employment by major economic sector, 1900, 1950, and 1983 Growth in service industries has spurred the expansion in clerical and professional jobs Clerical workers ^ _____________ 1982 Professionals Service workers Operatives Craft workers Managers Sales workers Non-farm laborers Farm workers 0 5 10 15 Millions of persons Chart 8. Employed workers by major occupations, 1950 and 1982 20 Employment and Unemployment Statistics 12 Sharp increases in unemployment have been a recurring problem ince the end of World War II, there have been eight reces sions. During each downturn, the rate of unemployment rose shar and then usually declined markedly in the recovery phase of the business cy cle. Improvements, however, generally failed to bring the unemployment rate completely back to prerecession levels. Thus, unemployment has had a long-term upward trend since 1970. In 1982, the unemployment rate rose to a record 10.7 percent; by June 1984, it had dropped to 7.1 percent. S 13 The unemployment rate is primarily an indication of the amount of unused labor in the economy currently available Note: Shaded areas represent recessions. Chart 9. Civilian unemployment rates, seasonally adjusted, 1948-83 Employment and Unemployment Statistics 14 Some groups suffer more unemployment than others he Nation’s average unemploy ment rate is a good indicator of the overall health of the economy, but it tells only part of the story. Some groups suffer much more unemployment than others, whether the economy is prosperous or distressed. Unemployment generally is more than twice as high among blacks as it is among whites, and is especially high among teenage blacks. Young people of all races suffer much more unemployment than adults over 35. Unemployment also varies among regions. It tends to be higher in the T heavily industrialized States east of the Mississippi than in the rest of the country. It varies, too, by industry. Workers in goods-producing industries, such as steel and autos, and in con struction, experience greater unemployment than do workers in service industries such as banking. 15 Minorities and youth are vulnerable Unemployment rate 25 - Black White Hispanic 16-19 20-24 25-54 55 + Chart 10. Unemployment rates by race, Hispanic origin, and age, 1983 School dropouts are at risk Unemployment rate 30 — 2520- 1510 — 5 0 — Graduates (with 4 years high school or some college) Students (enrolled in school) Dropouts (less than 4 years high school) Chart 11. Unemployment rates of youth 16-24 years of age by school enrollment and years of school completed, October 1983 Productivity and Technology 16 Today’s workers produce five times as much in an hour as workers did early in the century n the 100 years since the BLS was founded, American workers have steadily increased the quantity of goods and services they produce in an hour. Advances in technology, greater capital investment, and the increasing skill and education of workers all have contributed to this rise in productivity. Since the early 1900’s, worker pro ductivity has risen an average of 2.5 percent a year, but movements over shorter spans have deviated from this trend. Between 1947 and 1973, pro ductivity advanced 3 percent a year. In the past decade, however, the rate slowed to just above 1 percent. I 17 Productivity has grown strongly over the past 71/2 decades Index, 1909 = 100 500- Ratio scale Chart 12. Output per hour, private sector economy, 1909-83 Productivity and Technology 18 New ways to measure productivity have increased our understanding of changes in worker output arly in the century, the Bureau of Labor Statistics began measuring what a worker pro duces in an hour on the job. This way of measuring productivity rests on the relationship of output to a single in put— worker hours. Last year, the Bureau began publishing a new pro ductivity measure that relates what workers produce to the combined in put of their labor and of capital investment. This measure, a multifactor produc tivity yardstick, sheds additional light on the rise in American worker output since World War II. Between 1948 and 1982, multifactor productivity in private business grew about 1.4 percent a year. The first 25 years of that period saw rapid improvement (2-percent) an nual growth) followed by deceleration (no growth from 1973 on). E 19 Multifactor productivity indexes take account of capital as well as labor inputs Chart 13. Output per hour of all persons, output per unit of capital, and multifactor productivity, private business sector, 1948-82 20 Productivity and Technology Productivity is an important determinant of prices and costs rices, costs, and productivity relate to one another in com plex ways. Since I960, price and cost trends have moved in an op posite direction from productivity changes. Hourly compensation rose more after the mid-1960’s than before, while the rate of productivity improve ment slowed. As a result, unit labor costs accelerated. This inverse rela tionship continued in 1983, a year when productivity improvements were accompanied by a slowing of unit labor cost increases. A generally opposite relationship also exists between price changes and productivity changes in industries. For example, between 1960 and 1981, prices declined or rose slowly for hosiery, telephone communication, and radio and TV sets, while produc tivity rose in these industries at aboveaverage rates. In contrast, prices climbed strongly for footwear, steel, and wood office furniture— industries where productivity change over the period was comparatively low. P 21 Unit labor costs tend to rise when productivity growth slows Output per hour - all persons 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Chart 14. Output per hour of all persons, unit labor costs, and compensation in the business sector, 1948-83 Prices generally rise more rapidly when productivity increases slowly Average annual percent change -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Synthetic fibers Telephone communications Radio and TV sets Drug and proprietary stores Motor vehicles and equip. Hotels, motels Steel Retail food stores Metal-forming machines - Prices = Output per hour Chart 15. Output per employee hour and prices, average annual percent change selected industries, 1960-81 22 Wages and Industrial Relations Collective bargaining contributes to changing pay patterns ince the early 1900’s, member ship in a union (or coverage under a collective bargaining agreement) generally has resulted in pay levels that are higher than those of nonunion workers. Differences in the rates of increase in pay of union and nonunion workers, as measured by the Bureau’s Employment Cost In dex, were especially large in 1980, a year of double-digit inflation. The high inflation rate triggered large cost-ofliving increases for workers covered by union contracts. More recently, in creases in prices and rates of pay have slowed for all workers. Historically, wage differences be tween skilled and unskilled craftworkers have been substantial, but over the past several decades they have narrowed considerably. For ex ample, in the building construction trades, journeymen’s wages were about double those of unskilled workers at the turn of the century; by the early 1960’s, the difference had narrowed to about a third and has stabilized at about that level. S 23 Wage increases generally have been greater for unionized workers Chart 16. Percent changes in wages and salaries by union status, Employment Cost Index, 1976-83 The gap in wages between skilled and unskilled union workers has grown smaller Chart 17. Average union wage rates for journeymen as a percent of rates for helpers and laborers, building construction, 1907-80 Wages and Industrial Relations 24 Many factors influence a worker’s pay Geographic location of the job can be a prime factor in what a worker earns. Larger metropolitan areas and those in the Midwest and West generally offer higher pay. Relative wage level 140 120 - 100 - Office clerical workers 80 60 40 20 - 0 - Davenport, Iowa Norfolk, Virginia 100 = All metropolitan area average Chart 18. Geographic location as a wage level determinant, 1982 Women workers generally earn less than the average for their industry. This is true in highpaying industries as well as those with lower wage scales. Percent of production workers earning less than average 100 - 90 80 70 - Women Shirt manufacturing, 1981 Prepared meat products, 1979 Chart 19. Sex as a wage level determinant, 1979 and 1981 25 The industrial location of a job can have more influence on pay than the work itself Hourly rate $15 — 12- j Mechanic Janitor 9 - -y Mechanic J- Janitor 6- 3- Petroleum refining 1981 Corrugated and solid fiber boxes 1981 Chart 20. Industry as a wage level determinant, 1981 Skill and experience are important determinants of wages. Workers at the same skill level in different jobs often earn comparable pay. Monthly rate $ 4000- Chart 21. Skill as a wage level determinant, 1983 Wages and Industrial Relations 26 Changes in purchasing power reflect the greater volatility of price rather than wages orkers have received pay increases in all but a hand ful of years during the past century. However, because increases in purchasing power depend not only on changes in workers’ pay but also on the prices of goods and services they consume, purchasing power has not necessarily grown with each pay increase. Since the mid-1970’s, wage gains have fallen behind price in creases, resulting in a decline in a worker’s purchasing power, as measured by the Employment Cost In dex adjusted for changes in the Con sumer Price Index. The bulk of the decline, however, occurred between 1978 and 1981. Workers began to recover lost purchasing power late in 1981 as wage gains slowed but as price increases declined even faster. W 27 Workers’ purchasing power increased in 1976-77 and again in 1982-83 Note: Shaded area represents change in purchasing power. Percent change 1b 14— _____ Consumer Price . Index (CPI) 1976 1977 1978 1979 Employment Cost Index: ------ Current dollars 1980 1981 1982 1983 Chart 22. Percent change in the Employment Cost Index for wages and salaries of private industry workers and in the Consumer Price Index for urban wage earners and clerical workers, 1976-83 Wages and Industrial Relations 28 Workers’ pay and benefits frequently include some pro tection against catastrophic medical expenses mployee benefits, such as paid leave, health, insurance, and retirement programs, have been increasing their share of com pensation in the post-World War II era. Currently, they make up at least 25 per cent of the wage and benefit package. Of these benefits, major medical in surance plans have registered among the largest gains. Such plans, geared toward catastrophic illness or injury, now cover 175 million people, up from 100,000 some 30 years earlier. E 29 Major medical plans are a popular supplement to workers’ pay Millions of persons covered 175150125 100 75 50250 -------1951 1960 1970 1982 Chart 23. Workers and dependents covered by major medical plans, selected years, 1951-82 Wages and Industrial Relations 30 Wages of many union workers are changed each year under cost-of-living adjustments A s 1984 began, the wages of almost three-fifths of the near ly 8 million workers covered under major collective bargaining agreements were subject to automatic cost-of-living adjustments (COLA’s). A decade earlier, less than a third were covered by COLA clauses. Historically, COLA’s have helped to recover some of the purchasing power that has been lost as a result of price increases. Typically, one-half to twothirds of the rise is recovered when a COLA is triggered. (However, some COLA clauses decrease wages when prices fall.) The size of the adjustment depends on several factors, including the formula used to calculate the COLA— this may include a “ cap” on the size of the COLA— and the timing of the COLA review process. COLA’s generally go into effect after the CPI has changed by an amount specified in the collective bargaining agreement. The percentage of union workers covered by COLA’s has been fairly constant since 1976 Chart 24. Percent of workers covered by COLA clauses in collective bargaining agreements covering 1,000 workers or more, 1971-84 Wages and Industrial Relations 32 Although union membership has continued to grow, it has not kept pace with the increase in the labor force assage in 1935 of the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA)— which guaranteed the right of workers to organize and bargain collectively— marked the beginning of the rapid growth of unions in the United States. By the end of World War II, U.S. union membership had quadrupled to almost 15 million. Over the following decades, membership grew at a much slower pace— to about 20 million in 1980. Despite this expansion in numbers, union membership has failed to keep up with the growth of the labor force. Union representation in the labor force in 1980, at about 18 percent, was at its lowest level since 1942. Union membership alone is no longer an accurate measure of the number of workers represented by labor organizations. Since the early 1960’s, professional and government employee associations increasingly have shifted to bargaining activities. Together, unions and employee associations counted 22.4 million U.S. workers as members, about one-fifth of the labor force. P 33 Federal law provided the impetus for union growth in the 1930’s Note: Starting in 1968, includes members of employee associations. Members (in millions) 25- 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 Chart 25. Union membership in the U.S., 1900-1980 Prices and Living Conditions 34 The trend of consumer prices has changed over the century onsumer prices were fairly stable from 1880 until the eve of World War I. After the warinduced inflation, prices fell and declin ed further during the depression of the 1930’s. But since the start of World War II, prices have risen almost con tinuously, though the annual increases were small during the 1953-55 period and the early 1960’s. C 35 Consumer prices have risen almost continuously since 1940 in contrast to the ups and downs of earlier years Index, 1967 = 100 4035- 1915 Note: Data before 1973 are estimated from several sources Ratio scale IM 1950 1920 I I Ii 1955 1925 M I II 1960 1930 l I I II 1965 1935 I I I II 1940 I II 1970 Chart 26: Consumer Price Index, 1880-1983 Il 1975 1945 I I I II 1980 1950 I I l I 1985 36 Prices and Living Conditions The pace of inflation has varied from year to year ince 1960, there have been three big spurts in consumer prices— one during the Viet nam conflict, one following the oil bargo of 1973, and the third during the Iranian crisis. Inflation reached a peak of more than 14 percent in mid-1980. Such inflationary surges generally reflect a sudden increase in the de mand for goods and services, a sharp drop in supply, a failure of supply to S keep up with the economy’s growth, or a combination of these changes. In ternational events have clearly con em tributed to supply shortages (the worldwide food crisis of 1973-74 and the oil cutbacks) and to increases in demand (the Vietnam war and other defense expenditures). But domestic factors— such as government fiscal and monetary policies and the rate of wage increases— are of fundamental importance. One measure of inflation is the Con sumer Price Index, produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is a monthly measure of what consumers pay for a fixed market basket of goods and services that is representative of almost everything consumers buy. Three components of that index have been especially sensitive to changes in economic conditions— energy, food, and shelter costs. The slowdown in the rate of inflation since 1981 has reflected the sharp slump in the demand for energy and the slow decline in the increase of food prices during a worldwide economic recession. 37 International Percent events have had a 1 5 strong influence on the CPI Iranian crisis 12- 9- Oil embargo 6— Vietnam War 3 - 0 —i i 1960 i i i I i 1965 i i i I 1970 i i i 1975 Chart 27. Annual rate of change in CPI, 1960-83 i 1980 Prices and Living Conditions 38 Variations in the prices of some 300 items are reflected in the CPI rice changes for individual items and groups of items may vary substantially from the average. Medical care prices, for ex ample, have risen over twice as much as clothing prices since 1967. Changes in medical care prices or apparel prices have much less effect on the CPI than a change of the same magnitude in housing prices because housing is a much more important item in the household budget. During both the 1973-74 and 1978-81 periods of double-digit inflation, food, energy, and shelter prices accounted for twothirds of the increase in the CPI. It was the increase in food prices that had the greatest effect on the index in earlier years and the rise in shelter prices that had the greatest effect in 1978-81. Similarly, the slowdown in the rise of energy, food, and shelter prices ac counted for most of the slowdown in the CPI that began in 1981. Prices of other items also rose less. P 39 Medical care, housing, and transport prices have risen faster than other prices Chart 29. Percent increases for major expenditure groups from 1967 through 1983 Housing is the biggest expenditure in the CPI market basket Chart 30. Relative importance of major expenditure groups, December 1983 Prices and Living Conditions 40 Consumers have been changing their food buying habits merican families have been spending a smaller share of their budgets on food than they did in the past. A century ago, nearly half of the average spending dollar went for food; in recent years, less than a fourth, leaving a larger share for shelter, recreation, and other items. But families in the lower income bracket (the bottom 20 percent) still spend more than 40 percent of their income on food. Meals away from home (restaurants) now account for almost a third of the total food budget of all families. Data on consumer spending are now being obtained by BLS in a pro gram of continuing surveys launched during 1980-81. A 41 Consumers have been spending less of their 1888 income on food, but spending more of their food 1950 budget in restaurants 1980-81 (estimated) I 50 Percent Chart 31. Food spending as a percent of family income, selected years Income group Lower 20% Middle 20% Upper 20% Percent 0 10 20 30 40 Chart 32. Food expenditures by income group, 1981 Chart 33. Food away from home as percent of all food expenditures, selected periods 50 Prices and Living Conditions 42 The producer price index is used as a principal indicator of economic trends he Bureau’s Producer Price Indexes are important measures of inflation. The stage of processing indexes, particular ly the Finished Goods Price Index, facilitate the analysis of inflationary movements throughout the economy. They also permit the tracing of the ef fects of government price stabilization efforts and wage and price policies directed at specific industries. Private business firms use PPI data in forecasting, in market analysis, and in comparing their costs with the prices they receive for their products with na tional averages. But one of the more important uses of PPI data by businesses is as an escalator in long term sales and purchase contracts. T 43 Raw material prices are more volatile and generally rise faster than prices for intermediate or finished goods Chart 34. Produce price indexes by stage of processing, 1967-83 Changes in producer prices for finished goods are a barometer of inflation in the overall economy Percent change CPI commodities 2— 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 Chart 35. Retail and producer price changes for consumer goods, 1968-83 Prices and Living Conditions 44 Import and export price indexes are used to analyze American price competitiveness ver the past two decades, the Comprehensive indexes now are being United States has greatly in issued by the BLS and provide better creased its sales to foreign information on price trends of exports countries and its purchases fromand imports. They also are important them. Exports of merchandise rose tools in the escalation of contracts from 8 to 15 percent of the Nation’s where imported or exported products output of goods. The rise in imports represent a substantial share of total was even greater— from 6 to 19 cost, and in other economic studies. percent. The relationship between prices and the exchange rate value of the dollar The rapid growth of foreign trade is illustrated by data on the machinery has made it increasingly necessary to and equipment industry, which ac measure changes in prices of im counts for more than a third of U.S. ported and exported merchandise, merchandise exports. The increasing because these prices (along with value of the dollar since 1980 has changes in the value of the dollar in meant that it buys more in the world terms of foreign currencies) greatly in market than it did earlier. At the same fluence the flow of trade, and also time, the decline in the value of have an effect on price levels in the foreign currencies has made it more U.S. economy. But until the 1980’s, costly for other countries to buy from the United States did not have com the United States. This trend has tend prehensive indexes covering all im ed to discourage foreign buyers of ports and exports of merchandise. U.S. goods and exerted pressure on U.S. exporters to hold prices steady; it also has increased the attractiveness to foreigners of selling in the U.S. market and put downward pressure on U.S. import prices. During the 1970’s, however, when the value of the dollar generally was declining in terms of foreign currencies, there was a grow ing incentive for foreigners to buy U.S. products, and a declining incentive for them to sell products in the U.S. market. O 45 The importance of foreign trade has doubled since 1960 Chart 36. Exports and imports as a percent of Gross National Product, 1960 and 1983 The increasing value of the U.S. dollar drives up prices of U.S. ex ports in foreign currencies Chart 37. Price indexes of exports of machinery and transportation equipment in U.S. dollars and in foreign currencies, 1979-83 Occupational Safety and Health 46 Occupational injury and illness rates have fallen over the past decade, especially in the goods-producing sector ince 1972, when the Bureau The total injury and illness rate in began a new statistical series the goods-producing sector has been on occupational injuries and about double the rate in the serviceillnesses for private industry, the total producing sector. Traditionally, factory injury and illness incidence rate declin work and construction jobs have con ed despite a sizeable increase in tributed the lion’s share to these high employment. On average, 1 in 13 rates. Nevertheless, since 1979, there workers was injured or became ill in has even been a drop in the rates in the construction and manufacturing in 1982 compared with 1 in 10 in 1972. However, there has been virtually no dustries. Except for transportation and public change in the rate of occurrence of lost workday cases. utilities, where rates are comparable to the goods-producing industries, in cidence rates in the service-producing industries have remained almost stable. In fact, because many in dustries in this sector have a low risk of injury or illness, they are exempt from the Occupational Safety and Health Administration’s general record keeping requirements. But despite the overall decline, there were still almost 5 million jobrelated injuries and recognized ill nesses in 1982. S 47 The incidence of Rates per 100 full-time workers lost workday 12— H cases has remained virtually 10unchanged over the decade 8- Total cases Lost workday cases Cases without lost workdays 6— 4— 2 — 0— 1972 1982 Chart 38. Occupational injury and illness incidence rates in the private sector, 1972 and 1982 Workers in goods-producing industries face a greater chance of injury or illness on the job than service-producing workers Chart 39. Occupational injury and illness rates by major industry sector, 1972-82 Economic Growth and Employment Projections 48 The next decade will bring a slowdown in labor force growth and an increase in jobs in the services industries abor force growth is expected to slow through 1995 in con trast to the increases regis tered from 1970 to 1982. Fewer per sons reached working age in recent years because the high birth rates of the 1950’s and early 1960’s have not been sustained. In addition, fewer teenagers are entering the labor force than in previous years, a trend likely to continue. While women’s labor force participation is the highest it has ever been, the rate of increase has begun to slow, especially among those who are 20 to 44 years old. The continuing shift from goodsproducing to service-producing jobs, begun several decades ago, will grow even more pronounced over the next 10 years. Manufacturing still will, however, be an important source of new jobs in the years ahead. L 49 During the late 1980’s and early 1990’s, labor force growth will be largely among 25-to-54-year olds with declines falling heaviest on older and younger men Chart 40. Annual rate of labor force change, 1950-82 and projected 1982-95 Industries providing services employ more people than those providing goods and will continue to do so in future years Chart 41. Employment by major economic sector, 1955-82 and projected 1982-95 Economic Growth and Employment Projections 50 Projected growth of major occupations will follow past patterns rofessional and technical jobs will continue their rapid ex pansion and will account for the largest numerical increase in job among the major occupational groups. Clerical jobs also will have a large numerical increase over this period. Although growth rates for these workers are expected to be only average, clerical jobs will continue to employ more workers than any other major group. Farm workers are ex pected to continue their long term decline. Technological change will continue to have a significant affect on occupa tional growth. The continuing develop ment of computer technology and the increasing use of computers in a wide variety of functions, for example, will have a significant effect on growth among detailed occupations. Five of the ten occupations expected to have the fastest growth from 1982 to 1995 are directly associated with the computer. P 51 Half of the 10 fastest growing occupations will be in computer fields Computer Service Technicians Legal Assistants Computer Operators Office Machine Repairers Physical Therapy Assistants Civil Engineering Technicians Peripheral EDP Equipment Operators Electrical and Electronic Technicians Mechanical Engineering Technicians Registered Nurses Percent change I I II 0 20 I I I I I I I I I 40 60 80 100 120 Chart 42. Occupations projected to have the fastest growth, 1982-95 Between 1982 and 1995, professional/ technical, clerical and sales occupations will experience the largest growth Clerical Professional and Technical Service Operatives Craft Managers and Administrators Sales Nonfarm Laborers Farm Workers Millions I 0 1982 Projected 1995 lI lI Il Il 5 10 15 20 Chart 43. Employment by major occupation group, 1982 and projected 1995 Il 25 52 I A note on sources Current data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, represented by the charts in this bulletin, are available from a variety of sources. These in clude the Bureau’s news releases, periodicals, bulletins and reports, and its file of unpublished data contained in the Bureau’s computer data banks. To assist the reader in locating more information on BLS programs, in cluding analytical articles, technical program descriptions, and detailed statistical compilations, the references found here have been organized by source. NEWS RELEASES Employee Benefits (annual) Employment Cost Index (quarterly) Major Collective Bargaining Settlements (quarterly) Multifactor Productivity Indexes (annual) Occupational Safety and Health Statistics (annual) Producer Price Indexes (monthly) Productivity and Costs: Nonfarm Business, and Manufacturing Sectors (quarterly) Productivity and Costs: Nonfinancial Corporate Sector (quarterly) Real Earnings (monthly) State and Metropolitan Area Unemployment (monthly) The Consumer Price Index (monthly) The Employment Situation (monthly) U.S. Export and Import Price Indexes (quarterly) 53 PERIODICALS R e p o r t . Provides current data on consumer price movements and rates of change as well as technical notes and charts, (monthly) C P I D e ta ile d W a g e D e v e l o p m e n t s . Presents current information and analytical ar ticles on employee compensation, col lective bargaining activities, and statistical summaries of wage and benefit changes and work stoppages, (monthly) C u rre n t E m p l o y m e n t a n d E a r n i n g s . In addition to articles describing the most recent statistical procedures in the employ ment and unemployment statistics pro grams, contains current detailed data on the labor force, earnings, employ ment, unemployment, and various worker characteristics, (monthly) E m p l o y m e n t in P e r s p e c tiv e : M in o r it y Provides latest quarterly data on the employment situation of workers who are black, of Hispanic origin, and white. Data are disag gregated by sex. (quarterly) W o rk e rs : E m p lo y m e n t in P e r s p e c t iv e : W o rk in g Provides latest data on the employment characteristics of working women, including their labor force par ticipation rates, employment status, unemployment rates, and family status. Most data are disaggregated by age. (quarterly) W om en: L a b o r R e v i e w . Contains the results of BLS research, analytical ar ticles, regular monthly departments, and current statistics on employment and unemployment, prices, wages, and productivity, (monthly) M o n th ly O c c u p a t i o n a l O u t l o o k Q u a r t e r l y . Pro vides information on new occupations, training opportunities, salary trends, and career counseling programs. P r o d u c e r P r i c e s a n d P r i c e I n d e x e s . In cludes price movements on both farm and industrial goods, by industry and stage of processing as well as technical notes, (monthly) U .S . D e p a r tm e n t o f S ta te L iv in g C o s ts A b ro a d , A llo w a n c e s , a n d In d e x e s o f Q u a rte rs E ia r d s h ip D if f e r e n Contains data for foreign cities computed by the Department of State to establish allowances to compensate American civilian government employees for costs and hardships related to organizations to assist in establishing compensation systems. tia ls : 54 BULLETINS AND REPORTS A B LS R e ad e r on P r o d u c tiv ity , Bulletin 2171, June 1983 A C e n tu ry o f C hange in B o s to n F a m ily (New England Regional Office) Regional Report 79-5, 1979 C o n s u m p tio n P a tte rn s o f W o r k S t o p p a g e s (Annual Bulletins; publication discontinued with the release of 1980 data.) A n a ly s is B a r g a in in g B LS U sed C a le n d a r E c o n o n ic G ro w th F o r P r o je c t io n s 2112, 1982 (annual bulletin.) M o d e l S y s te m to 1990, B LS F ia n d b o o k o f M e th o d s , Vol. I, Bulletin 2134-1, Dec. 1982 Labor Force Chapters 1-3 Prices and Living Conditions Chapters 6-8 Wages and Industrial Relations Chapters 9-12 Productivity and Technology Chapters 13-16 Occupational Safety and Health Chapter 17 F i a n d b o o k o f M e t h o d s , Vol. II, Bulletin 2134-2, April 1984, The Con sumer Price Index B LS Bulletin B LS M a c h in e - r e a d a b le T a b u la tin g B LS R o u tin e s , P u b lic a tio n s T e c h n o lo g y , D ir e c to r y E m p lo y e e on D a ta a nd Report 620, 1981 P r o d u c tiv ity a nd Report 671, Oct. 1982 o f N a t io n a l U n io n s A s s o c ia tio n s , a nd Bulletin 2079, Sept. 1980 E m p lo y m e n t P r o je c t io n s fo r 1995, Bulletin 2197, 1984 E s c a la tio n a n d In d e x e s : A G u id e P a r tie s , P r o d u c e r P r ic e f o r C o n tr a c tin g Report 570, 1979 F ia n d b o o k o f L a b o r S ta t is t ic s , Bulletin 2175, Dec. 1983 W a g e S u r v e y s : (Various in dustries and dates; BLS Bulletin series. In d u s tr y 55 L a b o r F o rc e th e S ta t is t ic s D e r iv e d C u r r e n t P o p u la tio n OTHER DATA SOURCES fro m S u rv e y : A Vols. I and II. Bulletin 2096, D a ta b o o k , m e n t M a tr ix , Sept. 1982 N a t io n a l S u r v e y o f P r o fe s s io n a l, m in is t r a t iv e , P ay, T e c h n ic a l, M a rc h 1983, U n it e d a n d A d C le r ic a l Bulletin 2181, 1983 O c c u p a tio n a l I n ju r ie s th e S ta te s b y a n d I lln e s s e s In d u s tr y , P e r s p e c t iv e s on W o r k in g C h a rtb o o k , E con o m y: A Bulletin 2172, June 1983 U.S. Bureau of the Census, S ta t is t ic s o f th e T im e s to 1957, U rb a n U .S ., A d u s tr ie s , M e a s u re s fo r S e le c te d In Bulletin 2189, Dec. 1 9 5 4 -8 2 , 1983 D e p o r t s , (Reprints from the M o n t h l y L a b o r F l e v i e w cover ing various aspects of the labor force; includes detailed tables not published in the Review.) Bulletin 2192, “ Students, Dropouts, and Graduates,’’ Dec. 1983 S p e c ia l L a b o r F o r c e T a b le s o f W o r k in g D e c r e m e n t M o d e l, L ife : The In c re m e n t- Bulletin 2135, Nov. 1982 T re n d s in 1 9 4 8 -8 1 , U n io n M u lt if a c t o r P r o d u c t iv it y , Bulletin 2178, Sept. 1983 W ages T ra d e s , a n d B e n e fits : B u ild in g July 1980, Bulletin 2091 C o n s u m e r E x p e n d itu r e S u rv e y , W age A re a s , 1 9 8 0 -8 1 , D if f e r e n c e s 1982, S u r v e y : D ia r y Bulletin 2173, 1983 A m o ng U n it e d H is t o r ic a l S ta te s , C o lo n ia l Washington, D.C., 1960 M e tr o p o lita n Summary 83-5, 1983 S tu d y o f C o n s u m e r E x a n d S u r v e y s , Vol. XVIII, University of Pennsylvania, 1957 1 9 8 2 -8 3 P r o d u c tiv ity E m p lo y 1 9 9 5 A lte r n a tiv e s (Published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics but available only from the National Technical Information Service, 5285 Port Royal Road, Springfield, VA 22161.) p e n d itu r e s , th e to W om en: A Bulletin 2080, Oct. 1980 P r o d u c tiv ity a n d 1982 in Bulletin 2164, 1983 D a ta b o o k , N a tio n a l I n d u s tr y - O c c u p a tio n In c o m e s S o u rc e B oo k o f H e a lth Health Insurance Association of America, 1983 s u ra n c e D a ta , In 56 How to obtain BLS data News releases Reports News releases are available without charge from the Bureau’s regional of fices listed in this publication and from Inquiries and Correspondence, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington, D.C. 20212. Regular mailings of releases on specific subjects are available upon request to be put on the mailing list. Reports on national data are available without charge from the Washington or regional offices. Regional offices also issue reports presenting local or regional data. These are available from the originating office. Bulletins Periodicals Subscriptions to the Bureau’s periodicals may be ordered from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Single copies also may be ordered. Bulletins may be purchased from any of the Bureau’s regional offices or from the Superintendent of Docu ments. Bulletins that are out of print may be available for reference at leading public, college, or university libraries, and at Federal depository libraries. Machine-readable data Many BLS published series are available on magnetic tapes, usually for a fee equal to costs. To purchase tapes, contact the Bureau’s Division of Financial Planning and Management for ordering information. * U.S G .P .O . 1984-449- 18: 19027 BLS Regional Offices Region I—Boston Region III—Philadelphia 1603 JFK Federal Building, Government Center, Boston, Mass. 02203 3535 Market Street, P.O. Box 13309, Philadelphia, Pa. 19101 Region II—New York Region IV—Atlanta 1515 Broadway, Suite 3400, New York, N.Y. 10036 1371 Peachtree Street, N.E., Atlanta, Ga. 30367 Region V—Chicago 9th Floor, Federal Office Building, 230 S. Dearborn Street, Chicago, III. 60604 Region VI—Dallas Second Floor, 555 Griffin Square Building, Dallas, Tex. 75202 Regions VI and VIII—Kansas City 911 Walnut Street, Kansas City, Mo. 64106 Regions IX and X—San Francisco 450 Golden Gate Avenue, P.O. Box 36017, San Francisco, Calif. 94102
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