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R e v o lv in g C h e c k C re d it: Is it F a d o r F ix t u r e ? H ig h e r E d u c a t io n in th e T h ir d F e d e r a l R e s e r v e D is tr ic t— A G ro w th In d u s try REVOLVING CHECK CREDIT: How would you like to marry a bank? A lot of which it promotes its plan to the public— steady people are doing it, for marriage, it is said, is money, ready credit, money-matic, check-matic, about what the new revolving check credit ar ready money, check credit, credit checks, and rangements amount to. First, you propose and the many more. Like their names, the details of the bank thinks it over. If it accepts, you enter into plans differ but the general idea is the same. a lasting union whereby you can draw loans Here’s how a typical plan operates. automatically— until death or divorce do you part. The revolving check credit romance is the The customer fills out an application stating the amount he can afford to repay each month. If the bank approves, this figure is multiplied hottest news item in consumer banking. The by a fixed number of months— from 12 to 24, plans are sweeping the industry. Only a handful depending upon the bank’s policy— to determine of banks offered revolving credit in 1958; now, the maximum amount he may borrow. In other hundreds do and each week the total mounts. words, if it is decided that repayments of $50 a The present is rosy indeed, but what about the month can be handled and the bank’s plan is future of this marriage? It’s controversial. Some for 20 months, the limit of the line is $1,000. experts think consumers and revolving check The customer then receives a supply of checks credit may be able to get along well together; which he may use just like any personal check. others feel that they may be bad for each other. When one of these checks is written and comes back to the bank, it is charged to the revolving The way it works credit account and becomes a loan. Revolving check credit is a generic term. (We Monthly repayments begin once a debt is in shorten it to revolving credit in the remainder of curred. They are usually in the predetermined this article.) Each bank has its own name by size regardless of the amount borrowed, al Digitized for 2 FRASER business review though a few plans provide for payments as a Then came the explosion. It is hard to say fraction of the outstanding balance. The cus what touched it off, but here’s the most popular tomer may continue to write checks until he theory. During 1955, 1956, and much of 1957 reaches his maximum line. Once repayments consumer borrowing surged upward. To handle bring his debt below the limit, he may start bor the volume, banks added extra personnel and all rowing all over again. sorts of mechanical equipment. In 1958, how There is no charge of any kind while the ac ever, consumer credit outstanding began to drop count is not in use. When the customer borrows, because of the recession and the poor automobile he must pay interest on the amount outstanding year. Some banks were caught with excess ca — generally around 1 per cent a month. Some pacity in their consumer loan departments. They banks also levy a service charge on each check. began looking for something to take up the slack, preferably something not tied to highly How it ail started volatile automobile sales. The idea of revolving credit is not new. In Two possibilities were given prime consid Europe, it has long been the custom for banks to eration: Charge account plans and revolving permit automatic loans through overdrafts on credit.1 At first, banks leaned toward the charge checking accounts. In this country, department account stores have offered revolving charge accounts oughly tested. Then several large Eastern banks since the 1930’s. But to American idea, which had been more thor banking adopted revolving credit around the turn of this personal revolving credit is new. A Boston bank introduced the first plan in year and achieved spectacular results. Their experience helped influence other banks all over 1955. Other banks heard about it and made the country, and the idea began to spread rap pilgrimages there to see what was going on. For idly. The sharp competition which has grown up in the most part they looked, they studied, and they then filed the idea away. The situation simmered banking in recent years gave the trend further until late in 1958. momentum. Some banks that didn’t offer re INSTALMENT CREDIT HELD BY COMMERCIAL BANKS volving credit found they were losing business BILLIONS OF DOLLARS to those that did. They instituted a plan to hold their existing customers. So the snowball rolls. THE PHILADELPHIA STORY We have no firm figures on how many banks in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve District offer revolving credit. And if we had, they would soon be out of date the way the thing is growing. Our best guess as of the first of September is between 30 and 40 district banks. In Philadelphia County, four banks now provide some type of IC h a r g e account p la ns and other new id e as in b a n k in g will be d is cussed in a subsequent issue of the Business Review. 3 business review revolving plan for consumers and at least one of line in use and the percentage of accounts other is considering it. with outstanding balances are apt to increase banks in leading with time. Some people may not have gotten cities of the district and asked them for some around to using their account yet or may be details about their plans. The table on the opposite saving it for a special purpose. We contacted 14 major The average approved line of $825 would call page is based on what we were told. Repayment terms have been eased consid for an ability to make monthly repayments of erably, since revolving credit was introduced four years ago. The pioneer plans called around $40. This seems to indicate that most for monthly repayments of 1/12th of the ap tively high income groups. banks are extending revolving credit to rela proved line. Faith in the consumer, and com petition from other methods of borrowing caused the terms to be lengthened. Repayment as PROS AND PROBLEMS In talking with bankers and others, we heard a fraction of the amount borrowed rather than both sides of the story. What follows is a com of the total line— which can mean a slower pay posite summary of the alleged advantages and off— is another step toward liberalization. The possible drawbacks of revolving credit as they banks in our sample, most of which are late were told to us. comers in the field, have tailored relatively ex Why bankers like it tended terms into their plans. The primary purpose of revolving credit is to New business. Banks feel that revolving credit make loans, not to extend an unlimited checking will bring them new customers for their regular account service. In order to hold down the services, like auto loans and checking and sav number of checks written, half the banks have ings accounts. People, attracted by revolving set a minimum of either $20 or $25 on each credit, will tend to do their other banking under check. Most banks without formal restrictions the same roof, it is thought. try to discourage customers who repeatedly A competitive weapon. Revolving credit is said to give the banks that offer it— particularly write small checks. We could not get experience reports from all the first bank in a community— an edge over the banks we contacted. Some of them have not those who don’t. It also helps commercial banks been business long win customers away from their keen competitors, enough to collect any figures. Even the informa the small loan and sales finance companies. Only in the revolving credit tion we did get is pretty sketchy, based in most commercial banks can offer checking account cases on only a few months’ trial. privileges and thus only commercial banks can Many of the experience figures shown in the offer revolving check credit. table are likely to change as the plans move out A money maker. Revolving credit advocates of the introductory stage. For instance, the num expect long-run profits to be substantial. It’s an ber of rejections is likely to decrease. Most plans efficient way of lending, they point out. There is make their debut amid promotional pyrotechnics only one application to process, only one credit which attract many applicants who do not meet investigation to make, and thereafter the cus the banks’ credit standards. Both the percentage tomer borrows automatically. This could mean 4 business review THE REVOLVING CREDIT RUN-DOWN Based on reports from banks in leading cities of the Third Federal Reserve District CHARACTERISTICS OF PLANS (14 banks) NO. OF NO. OF BANKS MONTHLY REPAYMENT TERMS 1/ 2 0 1/ 2 4 1/20 1/21 1/24 8 a p p r o v e d line a p p r o v e d line a m o u n t b orrow e d a m o u n t b orrow e d a m o u n t b orrow e d 3 1 1 1 MAXIMUM LINE 13 1 1% ou t s ta n d in g balance . 9 8 % ou tsta n d in g balance LIFE INSURANCE 10 4 Provide d N o t p ro v id e d 1 6 6 1 M INIM UM SIZE OF CHECK $ INTEREST RATE PER MONTH BANKS $5,000 3,500 2,500 no limit 2 5 • /7 20 25 no limit MONTH PLAN W A S STARTED 1 4 4 2 J a n u a ry 1959 May June July August 3 EXPERIENCE PERCENTAGE OF ACCOUNTS SIZE OF APPROVED LINE (10 banks) Average Range $ 825 $ 6 8 5 -$ 1,250 PERCENTAGE OF LINE IN USE (9 banks) Average Range 56% 46% -66% WITH OUTSTANDING BALANCE (9 banks) Average Range 79% 5 4 % —1 0 0 % PERCENTAGE APPLICANTS REJECTED (10 banks) Average Range 36% 10% -61% a saving because normally 6 0 to 8 0 per cent of 1955 and 1956 when consumers were borrowing a bank’s consumer borrowers are repeats. so heavily,” these bankers said, “ but look what Consumers can handle it. The bankers who happened. Delinquencies in the last recession offer revolving credit do not expect a high de- were even lower than some optimists had hoped. fault rate. They put their faith in the American “ It was easy to pyramid debts up over your consumer, pointing out he often has demon head long before revolving credit. A charge ac strated his ability to manage his own financial count here, a credit card there, you could owe affairs. “ A lot of people were worried back in the finance company, the grocer, the bank, the 5 business review gas company. Yet the vast majority of people credit being risky. They claim there’s no way of didn’t get in trouble and they aren’t much more telling when a borrower’s circumstances change. likely to now.” Popular appeal. Judging by their enthusiastic response, Mr. and Mrs. Consumer like the idea of revolving credit, its backers point out. Con He could lose his job or incur all sorts of addi tional expenses and still be able to borrow the same amount. Under revolving credit the bank never knows venience is the big feature. Revolving credit is why a customer is borrowing. It could be for available for instant use anywhere, any time. It is well suited to young families who are acquir frivolous things like nightclub sprees which could reduce the incentive to repay. ing household goods. It’s a valuable service for In addition, the delinquency picture can be salesmen and others with fluctuating incomes. distorted. The borrower can “ roll a payment” And it can help anybody meet those big budget- or two, that is borrow from his account to make busters like tuition, taxes, and insurance. a regular repayment. Thus, the bank gets no Ifs, ands, and rebuttals does with an instalment loan. quick notice that the borrower is in trouble as it A substantial number of people feel that re Borrowing too easy. Perhaps the most vehe volving credit is far from an unalloyed blessing ment objections we heard to revolving credit were to banks and to consumers. This is what they are based on these grounds: it makes it too easy to saying. get in debt and stay in debt. It could encourage Other expenses. “ Costs may be higher than people to fritter away their borrowing power on you think,” the critics warn. First of all, the frills and luxuries, then have nothing left for initial credit investigation will have to be espe real emergencies— a new roof, an illness, or cially thorough— and expensive. Lots of adver something like that. tising is necessary, both to introduce a plan and As you can see, there are many arguments— or to keep it going. Checks must be processed, in should we say suppositions— both pro and con. terest computed, and statements prepared and To be perfectly frank, it’s too soon to properly mailed each month. Then, losses and collection evaluate revolving credit. The economy will expenses could be relatively high. Furthermore, probably have to go once around the business in order to protect itself, the bank should watch cycle at least before we can. closely the borrowing performance of each ac count. Some sort of regular review of each JUST SUPPOSING account, say every year or two, might also prove The overall impact of revolving credit on the desirable. economy is still small. The amount now out No one denies that a revolving credit plan can standing is negligible compared to other types be operated at a profit. But these administrative of consumer credit. But what happens if revolv expenses could mean that it is better suited to ing credit continues to grow as it has in the large banks which can use mechanical equip last 6 months? What will the situation be in a ment. The risk element. Some consumer credit men are concerned about the possibility of revolving 6 year, or two, or three? Nobody knows, but the possibilities are interesting. Let’s mull some of them over. business review Revolving credit, in substantial quantity, could times, it could be inflationary; if it is used when affect there is slack in the economy, it probably would the distribution of consumer spend ing. W e’re not saying it will, mind you, only that tend to increase output rather than prices. it could. Here’s how. Revolving credit is not On the third point there is reason to sup well suited to the purchase of new automobiles. pose that the use of revolving credit will be more They’re too expensive; remember, the average evenly spread over the business cycle than the line is $825. Revolving credit is better adapted regular installment loan. Revolving credit is not to appliances, vacations, and many nondurables so closely tied to durable goods which, because and services. People might be tempted to spend their purchase is postponable, tend to fluctuate more of their income for these things— because widely. Furthermore, it is possible that the use revolving credit makes it easy and convenient— of revolving credit will hold up better in reces and then have less left for automobiles. sions than conventional consumer loans. When Revolving credit could also affect where people consumers have their lines established, they buy. Account holders don’t need credit from the need no further bank approval to borrow. In merchant— they just write a check. Maybe they slack times they would be able to borrow for will shop around more and bargain harder. living expenses, or to take advantage of lower Maybe they will shift to discount houses and prices. other retailers who don’t offer credit. Many wonder if revolving credit will be in WILL THE MARRIAGE LAST? Back to our title question, is revolving credit fad flationary. We can only say “ it depends.” First, or fixture? At the present time, it looks as it depends on the total amount in use. It is doubtful whether the present quantity has much though revolving credit will earn a permanent place in the consumer credit framework. But it effect on prices. Second, it depends on whether may turn out to be a top-of-the-line service re revolving credit adds to total consumer credit served for good credit risks. As such, it prob outstanding or merely borrows business from ably will supplement rather than replace other other types of credit like personal loans. Third, forms of consumer lending. There always will be if revolving credit is a net addition, the timing many cases where the borrower needs discipline of its use is important. If it bunches up in boom and the bank needs security. 7 HIGHER EDUCATION IN THE THIRD FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT A GROW TH INDUSTRY One sure sign that summer is over: the doors of We asked them what their enrollments will be the ivy-covered college walls have once again this fall, and how much room there is for addi swung open. If you live in the neighborhood of tional students; how fast enrollments have been a college or university, you’ve probably already growing and how fast they are expected to grow noticed the lack of parking space— for cars, that in the near future. is. You may have noticed a lack of parking space for students as well— especially if you are a re ENROLLMENTS— PAST, PRESENT, PROSPECTIVE cent high school graduate, a parent with teen In our survey we asked about enrollments of age children, or a college administrator. The undergraduate students working for a degree— schools beyond high school have been laboring the core of the college clientele. The answers we under a boom in enrollments of such proportions received outlined the story of expansion. Enroll as to make many observers wonder if they will ments are up this year from last; they were sub be able to meet the growing demand for higher stantially higher last year than they were in education. 1954; enrollments are expected to be substan How has the surge in enrollments affected in tially higher in 1964 than they are today. stitutions of higher education in the Third Fed With the rolls just about closed for the cur eral Reserve District? Will there be room for rent semester, college officials expect an enroll all deserving applicants in the years to come? ment of almost 105,000 undergraduates. This is To find out, we talked to four score and seven about 4,500 more than enrolled last year, and registrars and deans of admission last month. represents an increase of about 4 % per cent. 8 business review All four major classifications into which we ENROLLMENTS: A RECORD OF GROWTH AND have divided the schools recorded an increase. MORE TO COME Junior colleges and technical institutes offering U n d e rgrad uates W o rk in g for Degrees two-yeal programs reported the highest rate of in Third District Institutions of H ig h e r Education expansion; their increase over last year will be about 11 per cent. Independent professional Fall Enrollments Type of Institution 1954 1958 1959* 1964* * schools, including teachers’ colleges, reported in creased enrollments of about 6Y2 per cent. Lib Junior C o lle ge s and Technical Institutes 3,086 4,678 5,193 7,506 eral arts colleges indicated about a 4 % per cent Liberal A rts C o lle ge s 23,347 32,751 34,260 41,164 increase, and universities offering a wide va Professional Institutions including Teachers' riety of curriculums reported a 3 per cent in Over 27,000 more students are enrolling this year than enrolled five years ago in 1954— an 10,983 16,1 18 17,157 21,338 Universities crease. 40,344 46,902 48,290 61,944 Total 77,760 100,449 104,900 131,952 C o lle ge s * Estim ated as of A u g u s t , 1959 * * Projected expansion of about 35 per cent. The pattern of growth among the different types of schools is Liberal arts colleges reported an increase of very similar to the pattern taken by the expan about 47 per cent, and universities about 20 per sion of enrollments this year over last. Over the cent. past five years, junior colleges and technical in These percentage increases in enrollments no stitutes grew most rapidly, expanding their en rollments about 68 per cent. Independent profes doubt reflect the capacity of different types of educational institutions to satisfy demand as sional schools reported the next most rapid well as the growth in demand for different types growth; enrollments expanded about 56 per cent. of education. OVER 100,000 UNDERGRADS— AND WHERE THEY ARE When we asked the registrars about enroll ments they anticipate five years from now, in 1964, they answered with some uncertainty. Sev 1959 Fall Enrollment of Undergraduate Students Working for Degrees at Institutions of Higher Education in the Third District eral simply could not give a figure because they THOUSANDS available for expansion. PER CENT OF TOTAL TOTAL UNIVERSITIES LIBERAL ARTS COLLEGES PROFESSIONAL INSTITUTIONS INCLUDING TEACHERS' COLLEGES JUNIOR COLLEGES AND TECHNICAL INSTITUTES were not sure as to whether money would be On the basis of the answers we did get, how ever, we estimate an increase in 1964 over cur rent enrollments of at least 26 per cent— an increase of about 27,000 students. This is a mini mum estimate because whenever a registrar was uncertain as to whether expansion would be pos sible, or told us of a school policy to keep the number of students from growing, we kept his institution’s enrollment at its 1959 level. The pattern of expansion over the next five ( Continued on page 12) 9 THE HIGHER LEARNING The tri-state area that comprises the Third sented. There are 40 professional institutions and Federal Reserve District has an old and honor teachers’ colleges and also 40 liberal arts col able tradition in the field of higher education. leges; these are the two largest categories by To be sure, the first college in colonial America number. There are 17 junior colleges and tech was Harvard, which was founded in Cambridge, nical institutes offering two-year programs; and Massachusetts in 1638. Nevertheless, at least 11 universities offering a wide variety of under four schools now operating in this district can graduate, graduate, and professional training. trace their origins back to the years preceding the Declaration of Independence. These are largest in total enrollment; over one-half of all Universities, though smallest in number, are Princeton University, the University of Penn the students enrolled in the district attend a sylvania, the University of Delaware, and Mo university. Over 25 per cent of the students ravian College in Bethlehem. V - enrolled attend a liberal arts college, and over A minimum of 17 more of the district’s pres ent-day universities and colleges are graced 4 15 per cent attend professional institutions and teachers’ colleges. Somewhat under 3 per cent with over 110 years of ivy and tradition, hav are enrolled in junior colleges and technical ing been founded institutes. after the Revolution and prior to 1850. The schools in the district range in size from However, the largest number of institutions the massive university, several of which have were established in the last half of the nine enrollments exceeding 16,000, to the pocket-sized teenth century. This period of rapid economic junior college with enrollments of between 50 growth, which saw the beginnings of much that and 100. we identify with modern America, also saw Clearly, higher education is as varied and di the beginnings of at least 44 institutions of versified as manufacturing in the Third Federal higher learning in the Third District. Reserve District. The industry today The Third District and the United States The number of institutions in the Third District In the fall of 1958 about 158 for every 10,000 > has continued to expand up to the present day. people in the district enrolled at district institu There are over 100 institutions of higher learn tions of ing with total enrollments of about 148,000 cur as a whole, about 186 for every 10,000 signed up rently operating in the district. with t- As can be seen on the accompanying map, the universities and colleges are widely x higher education. For the country colleges, universities, and professional schools. spread the result of an unusually large district popula however, around the Philadelphia-Delaware Val tion. In fact, each school in the district has, on ley area. average, over 2,600 fewer residents to serve than A The smaller proportion in the district is not throughout the region. There is a concentration, x The four major classifications into which we have divided the schools are all well repre-* *The schools discussed are those re porting to the U. S. Departm ent of H ealth, Education, and W e lfa re . These include virtua lly all a ccred ited schools. do schools throughout the country as a whole. The institutions in the district are on average, however, significantly smaller than schools in other parts of the country. Enrollments for all *r N THE THIRD DISTRICT* schools in the district last year averaged about education in other areas of the country. 1,400; for the entire country, enrollments aver Of course it is possible, for one reason or an aged about 1,700. The universities in the district other, that a smaller proportion of population in are substantially smaller than a number of uni the district than in the rest of the country is seek versities in other parts of the country; none is ing and obtaining higher educations. But to the numbered among the big ten enrollment-wise. extent that this is not the case— and there is no Half of the schools in the district have enroll conclusive evidence to show that it is— the facts ments under 500. suggest that there is a net outflow of students Many of the district’ s institutions are charac terized by high entrance standards, high tuitions, from the district to schools elsewhere. There are, without doubt, students coming and a desire to keep their student bodies limited into the district. Many institutions here have na in size. This characterization is especially nota tional and international reputations, and they ble when these institutions are compared with attract students from all over the world. But large state universities which dominate higher there may well be more students leaving. .ATI ON In d e p e n d e n t professiona institutions in c lu d in g teachers' co lle g e s— m ay require pre vious d e g re e U niversity A ll classes A ssociate, bachelor's, g ra d u a te and professional 108 N u m b e r with sym b ol ind icate s total num ber of institutions in class within county. O n ly location of m ain ca m p u s is shown for institutions with one o r m ore branches. business review (Continued from page 9) bodies at about the same size as they are now. years will probably be somewhat different from This policy could throw the burden of future ex previous patterns. Junior colleges and technical pansion on the large universities as they repre institutes still anticipate more rapid expansion sent the closest substitute for applicants whose than any other class of institution. But universi first choice might be a liberal arts college. ties anticipate the second most rapid expansion; only the universities, in fact, expect a more rapid The outlook for higher education increase in enrollments over the next five years than they experienced over the past five years; Because of a substantial increase in the birth rate in the 1940’s, we can expect an increasing teachers’ colleges and other professional institu college-age population for some time to come. tions follow closely behind the universities in There are almost 700,000 more 18-to-24-year- their anticipated expansion. Liberal arts colleges olders in our population today than there were anticipate the least rapid growth. five years ago; there will be almost 2% million The liberal arts colleges, which bulk very large more five years from now than there are today. in the district’s educational structure (they will Moreover, there has been an increasing ratio enroll over 30 per cent of all undergraduates in of enrollments to college-age population. In fact, 1959), anticipate an increase of only about 20 the ratio has been increasing rather steadily per cent. It might be recalled that from 1954 since the middle of the 19th century. It took a to 1959 their enrollments increased about 47 per big jump after World War II— in large part due cent. to returning veterans and the G.I. Bill— and Many of the liberal arts college registrars told shows no signs of stabilizing yet. In 1954, about us that they would like to keep their student 18 for every 100 in the college-age population PATTERNS OF GROWTH enrolled in institutions of higher education; this Increases in Enrollments of Undergraduates Working for Degrees at Institutions of Higher Education in the Third District . . . year the ratio is almost 24 for every 100. Changing attitudes are one reason for this ris ing ratio. It is clear that most people today con sider a college degree and the training it implies a very valuable asset. Perhaps as a consequence a college education has also become, in the minds of many, a prerequisite for equality of op portunity in a democracy. “ Many applicants,” one of the registrars told us, “ now seem to feel that a college education is their right.” Economic growth— rising real income— has made it pos sible for growing numbers to purchase this “ right” for themselves and their families. Most industries considering the prospect of a rapidly expanding, effective-money demand for their services would not think they had a prob lem. In the higher education industry, however, 12 business review SOME ROOM, BUT NOT MUCH , Excess Capacity in Third District Institutions Fall 1959 Size of Institution by Enrollment Type of Institution 0-499 500-999 1,000 All sizes and over Enrollment as % of Capacity All sizes ( N um ber of Students Short of Full C a p a c ity ) Junior Colleges and Technical Institutes 269 430 Liberal Arts Colleges 865 45 825 1,735 95.2 Professional Institutions including Teachers' Colleges 188 525 75 788 95.6 875 875 98.2 96.2 Universities Total 699 1,322 Enrollment as % of Capacity— All Types 1,000 1,775 4,097 85.4% 9 5 .3 % 9 7 .7 % 88.1% 9 6 .2 % the service charge— tuition— does not begin to applications in the fall of 1949. This fall only rover the full cost of turning out graduates. Neither colleges nor universities can turn a loss about 10 per cent of the same group had accep tance rates that high. Many students, fearing re per unit of sale into a profit by increasing vol jection at their first-choice school because of ume, any more than can the ordinary business overcrowded conditions, have been making mul man. The institutions in the Third Federal Reserve tiple District cations have been raising standards. have participated in the past with applications. Many schools faced with growing numbers of applicants as well as appli schools throughout the country in the generally Institutions in the district are currently oper increasing demand for higher education. Of ating at about 96 per cent of capacity. While course there may be exceptions, but it is reason “ capacity” is no doubt a flexible concept in the able to expect that most district schools will be minds of many administrators, this high fig under pressure from the rising tide of would-be ure signifies stress. It means that college offi college students in the years to come. In fact, our cials believe that there is now only room for survey disclosed that many schools in the dis approximately 4,000 additional undergraduates trict are already under pressure and have been — less than the increase in enrollments this year. for some time. An indication of the squeeze on schools and About one-third of this limited “ excess ca pacity” can be found in the small schools with students as well is the falling rates of acceptances undergraduate enrollments of less than 500. Over to applications. About one-half of the 61 schools 40 per cent can be found in relatively large providing us information on these rates had ac schools with undergraduate enrollments of 1,000 cepted 90 per cent or more of their enrollment or more. The schools with enrollments of be 13 business review tween 500 and 1,000 seem to have the least others will be able to enlarge their student room; and in this size category, the liberal arts bodies. But if total capacity does not expand college and the university categories appear to with total demand, an increasing number of have almost no room at all. applicants to schools in the district will be dis The 1964 enrollments projected by the regis appointed. Some may turn to schools in other trars with whom we talked also seem to reflect parts of the country for their education, thus the current pressure on Third District institu increasing what already appears to be a net tions. The estimated minimum increase of 26 per cent— about 27,000 students— over this year may outflow of students. appear substantial. But it is really quite modest in applicants rises— when the chips are down— pri view of the 35 per cent increase in enrollments— vate schools may somehow find endowments that Of course, when the number of high-quality a little over 27,000 students— between 1954 and enable them to expand and many may relax 1959, the rate at which college-age population is their self-imposed limits on size; state schools increasing, and the spreading desire for higher may be able to convince legislatures to vote education. Some schools will find that the growth in more money for education. To shoulder their demand gives them a long-sought opportunity to rollments, some schools in the district will prob improve the quality of their student bodies; ably have to expand more than they now plan. 14 share of the burden in the coming push in en FOR TH E RECORD... BILLIONS Third Federal Reserve District Per cent change MEMBER BANKS 3RD F.R.D. United States Per cent change $ SU M M ARY 7 mos. 1959 from year a go July 1959 from mo. ago year ago July 1959 from year ago mo. ago Departm ent Storef Factory* Em ploy ment 7 mos. 1959 from year a go LOCAL CHANCES Payrolls Sales Per cent change July 1959 from Per cent change July 1959 from Per cent change July 1959 from mo. ago year mo. ago ago year mo. ago ago Check Payments Stocks Per cent change July 1959 from Per cent change July 1959 from year mo. ago ago year mo. ago ago year a go OUTPUT M anufacturin g p ro d u ctio n . Construction contracts ... C o a l m ining .................. — i - i -4 4 + 9 + & + 10 + 7 -2 0 - 7 0 -3 6 + 16 + 1 0 + 16 + M + b + EM PLO YM ENT A N D IN C O M E Factory em ploym ent (Total) .......................... Factory w age in com e ...... 2 + 5 + 4 +20 + 5 — 2 + 1 + 7 0 + 0 1 + 8 + 0 + b - 1 + 12 + n Philadelphia . 0 + 2 + 1 1 + 5 + 15 0 +21 Lancaster .. .. — 9 0 + 4 0 + 13 + 8 + 6 + 9 — 1 +22 + 4 + b + 12 + 10 + 3 + 13 + 12 + 5 + 10 + 1 + 14 1 + 14 - 2 + 16 5 TRADE* Departm ent store sales ... Departm ent store stocks .. + 5 0 + 5 + 10 + 7 + + 3 1 + + 6 7 + 8 ...... + 1 + Scranton ...... - B A N K IN G (A ll m em ber banks) D eposits ........................ Loans ............................. Investments .................... U.S. G ovt, securities...... O ther ........................... Check payments ............ Reading + + + - 1 0 1 1 0 It + + — — + 2 10 3 4 1 I2f + + + + 5 7 5 5 + + 1 2 0 0 0 3 + + — + + 3 13 5 7 3 14 + 4 + 8 + 4 + 2 + 8 + 9 Ot + •Adjusted for seasonal variation. 2 - 1 7 - 2 + 2 + 1 — 7 + 1 3 + b - 2 + 14 + 6 + 5 - 4 + 9 + 13 - 1 9 W ilkes-Barre . - 2 + 7 — 2 + 12 + 6 + 2 + 7 + 7 - 1 + 8 - 7 + 12 1 1 + 1 - 2 + 10 0 + + U + U |20 C ities 0 0 + 0 1 + 0 1 tPhiladelph W ilm in gto n .. 0 + 5 - 3 + 14 + 10 + b + 3 + York ............ + I2f P R IC E S W ho lesale ..................... Consum er ....................... 2 - Trenton ........ - 0 + 2 - 3 + 7 + 9 + 3 + * N o t restricted to corporate lim its of cities but covers areas of one or more counties, t Adjusted for seasonal variation. 2 1
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