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R E VI E W FEDERAL r e se r v e ban k FEDERAL RESERVE BANK October 1969 Suburban Jobs and Black Workers Full Silos and Bulging Corn Cribs Bank and Non-Bank Competition Suburban Jobs and Black Workers . . . Suburbanization of employment in the Philadelphia area poses growing prob lems for black workers in blue-collar trades. An improved transit system may be the best of several possible solutions. Full Silos and Bulging Corn Cribs . . . 1969 is shaping up as a banner year for agriculture in most of the Third District. Bank and Non-Bank Competition . . . A look at the expansion o f non-bank financial institutions and the location of merging banks suggest that competition may not have been blunted to the extent their merger figures imply. NOW AVAILABLE: GUIDE TO INTERPRETING FEDERAL RESERVE REPORTS A 43-page b o o k le t entitled, “ G uide to Interpreting Federal R e serve R ep orts,” has b een prepared in the R esearch D epartm ent o f the Federal R eserve Bank o f Philadelphia. This b o o k le t is d e signed to aid readers in understanding significant financial and e co n o m ic d evelop m en ts as reflected in tw o Federal R eserve reports w h ich receiv e w id e circu lation — the W e e k ly C on dition R eport o f Large C om m ercial Banks and the C on solid a ted State m ent o f A ll Federal R eserve Banks. C opies o f the b o o k le t are available u pon request to the P u blic In form ation D epartm ent o f the Federal R eserve Bank o f Phila delphia, Philadelphia, P ennsylvania 19101. BUSINESS REVIEW is produced in4he Department of Research. Evan B. Alderfer is Editorial Consultant; Ronald B. Williams is Art Director. The authors will be glad to receive comments on their articles. Requests for additional copies should be addressed to Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19101. BUSINESS REVIEW In the summer o f 1968 when a “ Jobmobile” searched along the streets o f North and West Philadelphia offering jobs to the residents of ghetto neighborhoods, three thousand applicants filed through the trailer housing the roving em ployment agency. The “ Jobmobile” canvassed areas employers seldom tread, and found that a tip about a job was all that was needed by many o f the unemployed. W ith city-wide unemployment then at a his Suburban Jobs and Black Workers by Richard W. Epps torically low 3.2 per cent, the influx of new workers was welcomed by employers suffering from the tight labor market. But there were problems. Many o f the newly recruited workers needed basic training. Moreover, some em ployers with the greatest number o f job open ings were too far away from North and West Philadelphia to benefit from the newly tapped labor pool. As one businessman who signed up a hundred workers from North Philadelphia complained, the expense and inconvenience of the two-hour bus and trolley ride to his subur ban electronics plant caused most o f the new employees to quit within a few weeks. Although a problem for this suburban man ager, the incident also is indicative o f substantial problems for residents o f older sections in Phila delphia. Because virtually all growth in employ ment is going on in the suburbs, the increasing number o f black workers in older, less accessible areas o f the city may have difficulty in finding jobs. This part o f the economic problem o f the Negro community is receiving increasing notice, and programs are being designed to eliminate the impact o f inaccessibility on employment. Proponents o f black capitalism, for example, urge creation o f new factories in Negro com munities in part to give black workers a better chance o f finding a job close to home. Also, 3 OCTOBER 1969 CHART 1 City Employment has Stagnated while Sub urban Employment has Mushroomed . . . THE CHANGING DISTRIBUTION OF JOBS AND PEOPLE Thousands of Non-Agricultural Employees, Excluding Government Employees phia employers have found suburban locations As have firms in other areas, many Philadel to be more suitable than city industrial areas. Consequently, employment has been expanding rapidly in suburban areas o f Philadelphia, as shown in Chart 1, while the City of Philadel phia, at least since the early fifties, has suffered an absolute decline in employment. The worst loss for the City o f Philadelphia has been in manufacturing activities where em ployment has plummeted nearly 20 per cent ( Chart 2 ). The story in manufacturing has been repeated to a lesser extent in all industries ex cept finance and services. Growth in these two areas has offset most o f the decline in other industries. The profile o f population is similar to that of ’ Chester, Montgomery, Delaware and Bucks Counties in Penn sylvania, and Gloucester, Camden and Burlington Counties in New Jersey. employment. As shown in Chart 3, city popu lation declined slighty during the fifties, but recovered much of the loss during the early Source: County Business Patterns, United States Department of Commerce sixties. Suburban population expanded rapidly some people have suggested that government roughly constant in size, its racial composition subsidies be devoted to mass transit to help ghetto residents get to suburban plants. H ow has shifted sharply. Since proportion of the population o f Philadelphia important a problem is the inaccessibility these has nearly doubled— jumping from 18 to 32 programs are designed to correct? Are Negroes closer or further from jobs, on average, than per cent. are white workers? Although these questions employment and population disguises an im have been widely discussed, there have been portant feature. Industries in which the city throughout the period. While The the city population has remained 1950, the Negro apparent similarity of the shifts in few attempts to give quantitative answers.1 This has done most poorly— manufacturing, trans article reports upon a measurement o f the prob portation and public utilities, and construction— lem for Philadelphia. are the biggest employers o f blue-collar workers. 1 T h e problem has been studied for Chicago and D e troit by John Kain. See John F. Kain, “ Housing Segrega tion, Negro Employment, and Metropolitan Decentraliza tion,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, V ol. 82, N o . 2, (M a y , 1 9 6 8 ), pp. 175-197. paper-shuffling and meeting-going white-collar Replacing these firms are ones offering jobs to Digitized for4 FRASER workers. But the population o f the city has be come increasingly characterized by blue-collar BUSINESS REVIEW CHART 2 A n d , C ity E m ploym ent has Changed from F actories to O ffices. Each bar represents the percentage grow th o f em p loym en t b etw een 1951 and 1967. The City o f Philadelphia has lagged its suburban areas in every sector, but has lost m ost em p loy m en t in industries hiring w ork ers in the manual trades— m anufacturing, con stru ction , and transportation, com m u n ica tion s and p u b lic utilities. Percentage Growth of Employment, 1951-1967 -4 0 0 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 •Chester, Montgomery, Delaware and Bucks Counties in Pennsylvania, and Gloucester, Camden and Burlington Counties in New Jersey. Source: County Business Patterns, United States Department of Commerce workers such as truck drivers, carpenters, and zens. Because Negro workers are especially con janitors. Consequently, the city has a smaller centrated in manual trades, the shift in structure number of appropriate jobs to offer to its citi of jobs probably affects them the most severely. 5 OCTOBER 1969 CHART 3 Population, like employment, has stabilized in the City. Population in Thousands from taking employment in distant locations. Also, imperfect flows o f knowledge about jobs and hesitancy o f Negroes to work in all-white areas may reduce the supply available to em ployers located some distance from the ghettos. The average worker in the Philadelphia area spent more than fifty cents a day getting to and from work in 1960, and covered about two and one-half miles each way. More lengthy trips of workers cost up to four dollars a day, and amount to more than fifteen miles each way. These expenditures make a big dent in paychecks of low-income workers, and may act as a powerful incentive for workers to attempt to ’ Chester, Montgomery, Delaware and Bucks Counties in Penn sylvania, and Gloucester, Camden and Burlington Counties in New Jersey. Sources: U.S. Census of Population, 1950 and I960, Population Estimates, series p-25, United States Department of Commerce. find a job close to home, or to take no job at all if there are none close to home. If housing markets functioned better, the cost of commuting would be less of a barrier to choosing a job. Workers could survey the whole metropolitan area for the best job, and move SPACE AND JOBS their residence if that best job were far away. High participation o f Negro workers in city jobs But, moving the residence is not easy for black adds to the importance o f this shift in employ workers. ment structure. In 1960, 92 per cent o f the severely limits the number o f places where black Segregation in housing markets city’s Negro workers found their jobs within workers can live. And for workers with meager the city limits, with a proportionately greater incomes, the necessity o f finding cheap housing number of Negroes working in each occupation in the city than in the suburbs. One can at reduces the alternatives even more. If the best job is in a white community in the suburbs, a tribute this greater concentration of Negro black worker may be effectively shut off from workers in the city to two principal factors: (1 ) the local housing market. the effect of distance to jobs on the supply of Unable to reduce any or all o f the cost of com workers; and ( 2 ) the effect o f discrimination by muting by moving, black workers must sub employers and consumers on the demand for tract transportation costs from each week’s pay- workers. check, significantly reducing their income from distant jobs. Less regular or lower-paying jobs The supply o f Negro workers in the neighborhood become more attractive. available to employers distant from Negro resi If no jobs are available close to home, temporary Supply side. dential areas is less than that available to em withdrawal from the labor force may seem ployers close to these areas. For one thing, justified. commuting costs tend to discourage workers 6 If job openings are far away from the job BUSINESS REVIEW seeker’s neighborhood, chances are he will not Second, Negroes in traditionally white occupa find out about them. Most workers depend upon tions may have a difficult time finding employ advice and information from friends and ac ment except in Negro areas. Employers have quaintances for guidance in their search for a tended to open only certain kinds of employ job. Negroes living in suburban ment to Negro workers, typically in manual or areas, there is little opportunity for the word W ith few menial jobs. Although managers increasingly about these outlying job openings to filter look to Negroes to fill more responsible and through to black workers. Employment agencies, skill-oriented positions, the transition has by no public and private, aid the flow of information, means been completed. Thus, Negro workers but they play a role secondary to that of the seeking non-manual jobs may often have a dif more casual process of verbal communication.2 ficult time finding employment. Their best op Racial composition o f the area in which jobs portunities may be in Negro-owned firms or in are located also has an impact upon the supply firms where most o f the work force is Negro. of workers in a subtle way. Negro workers may be hesitant to venture into all-white areas for Since these firms are concentrated in areas of Negro residents, demand for these workers may jobs. The work force of plants in these areas be low in most white areas. is often predominantly white, and may appear THE BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND non-receptive to black workers. The impact of distance from job opportunities For some black workers, dis differs by occupation. In general, employment tance to jobs is not a constraint— there simply may be few jobs for them outside of black areas. of Negroes in blue-collar trades is most strongly affected by the supply side— the combination of Prejudice by employers or residents in white commuter costs and information flow. White- Demand Side. areas may largely eliminate demand for black collar workers, on the other hand, are most workers. The problem is two-dimensional. First, strongly affected by characteristics of demand— there may be a tendency for employers to hire workers similar in race to their customers. For the low level o f demand for black workers in predominantly white areas. The importance of supply and demand con example, retail merchants in predominantly white areas, suspecting that their customers siderations in employment o f Negro workers would like to trade with members of their own was determined by comparing relative Negro race, may hire mostly white workers. Con employment in each part o f the region with ac versely, stores in mostly Negro areas may hire cessibility .to black workers and the racial bal black workers in the belief that it will help boost sales. Negro physicians and lawyers are ance of local neighborhoods.3 Accessibility com pares the closeness o f an area to Negro workers concentrated in Negro residential areas; black with the closeness o f that same area to white teachers have usually been workers.4 And it represents the relative supply predominant in schools with largely black student bodies. 2 For a discussion of job-seeking behavior see H . L. Sheppard and A . H . Belitsky, T h e Job Hunt: Job Seek ing Behavior of Unemployed. Workers in a Local Econ omy, (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1 9 6 6 ). of black workers available to employers in an 3 Relative employment of Negroes is defined as the per cent of all employees who are Negro. 4 See Appendix for a more extensive explanation of the accessibility index. 7 OCTOBER 1969 TABLE 1 FACTORS UNDERLYING SPATIAL VARIATION IN NEGRO EMPLOYMENT IN THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREAf Occupation Professional, Technical, and Kindred ............. Managers, Officials and Proprietors ............... Clerical W o rkers........... Sales W orkers............... Craftsmen, Foremen . . . Operatives and Kindred W orkers...................... Service Workers ........... La b o re rs........................ Per Cent of Variation in Relative Negro Employment Attributable to: Labor Market Structure Relative Accessibility Market Structure and Accessibility Jointly 12.4 10.6 15.1 61.9 100 Error and Other Factors Total _ ___ . 8.3 14.2 3.9 5.9 1.7 13.1 12.2 10.9 12.4 100 73.6 73.2 70.6 100 100 100 100 2.1 2.2 0 15.0 13.5 17.6 12.6 11.9 0 70.3 72.4 82.4 100 100 100 tSee appendix for an explanation of methodology and data. Bold numbers are significantly different from zero at the .01 level of confidence. The variation in relative employment of Negroes among parts o f the Philadelphia Metropol itan Area is broken into four parts in Table 1. The first two are the minimum amounts attributable separately to market structure, and to accessibility. The third is the part attribut able to market structure and accessibility which, because of the correlation between market structure and accessibility, cannot be statistically divided between the two factors. It is safe to assume, however, that when the independent contribution of one o f the two factors is low, this joint part may be attributed to the other factor.* The fourth part is the amount of varia tion resulting from errors ( probably high) in measuring relative Negro employment and from the operation of other factors.** * Market structure and relative accessibility are partly correlated with each other. Thus, areas having a high (lo w ) relative accessibility to Negroes tend to have a high (lo w ) proportion of Negro residents. In such areas it is not possible to say statistically whether their high (lo w ) relative employment of Negroes is because of their market structure or because of their accessibility. But, when in other parts of the region where the level of accessibility and of market structure differ from each other the level of Negro employment is tied exclusively to, say, accessibility, it is safe to assume that accessibility is the causative factor throughout the region. * * A s explained in the Appendix, the measure of relative Negro employment is based on a 5 per cent sample of employment in the region. W h e n used on as disaggregated a basis as in this study, these data probably in clude a substantial amount of measurement errors. These errors understate the effect of relative accessibility and market structure. T h ey do not, however, bias the conclusions of the study. area. An accessibility of 20 per cent, for exam measures the proportion o f the residents of each ple, means that four times more white workers area of the city that are Negro, and it is a proxy live within commuting distance o f an area than for the effect of demand upon employment op do black workers. The index of racial balance portunities o f Negroes. 8 BUSINESS REVIEW As shown in Table 1, cost of travel and flaws DISTRIBUTION OF JOBS AND RESIDENCES in the flow of information, both proxied for by In 1960, the last year for which small-area accessibility, are of some importance for each employment figures are available, there were occupation. Racial composition of the local mar relatively few white-collar jobs in Negro areas, ket, a proxy for discrimination by employers, but Negro communities were close to large con is an important consideration only for white- centrations o f blue-collar employment. Thus, the collar trades.5 Perhaps because of the importance of dis distribution of jobs was favorable for blue-collar crimination, Negroes in white-collar occupations workers. workers, but unfavorable for white-collar travel less far to work than do their white This line-up of employment is changing be counterparts. As shown in Table 2, Negro sales cause of the shifting structure of the city. Most workers and managers travel less than half as blue-collar jobs are concentrated in manufactur far to their jobs as their white counterparts ing, construction, and public utilities, with a do; and clerical workers sprinkling o f employment through other kinds travel only 80 per cent as far. This shorter dis black professional of businesses. Manufacturing, the largest single tance suggests that jobs at a distance from Negro employer, is currently involved in a search for residential areas are not open to black workers space which is leading many firms engaged in in these occupations. This situation contrasts that pursuit to the outer perimeter of the with that o f Negroes in blue-collar pursuits who metropolis. As a hold-over from the pre-automo generally travel as far or further to work than bile days when transportation facilities were concentrated within the city, a large number of their white counterparts. plants still ring the center city. Close to neigh borhoods of Negro residents, these hold-overs, together with firms operating with port facilities TABLE 2 AVERAGE MILES TRAVELED TO WORK, 1960* White Non-White Occupation Professional .................. Managerial ..................... C le ric a l........................... Sales W orkers................ Craftsmen ..................... Operatives ..................... Service W orkers............ Laborers......................... Total ................ 2.59 1.63 2.50 1.50 2.52 2.39 1.84 2.86 3.83 3.35 3.02 3.35 3.17 2.41 1.85 2.17 2.96 -1_ 2.37 '"The averages are geometric means. Source: "First Work Trip File,” Delaware Valley R< gional Planning Commission. on the Delaware River, form much o f the em ployment market for Negro workers in bluecollar trades. The current movement o f these firms out of the city will reduce this market. In contrast to the story for manual workers, industries employing large numbers o f whitecollar workers— service industries and financial institutions— have grown rapidly within the city. The greater accessibility to Negro workers is less important for this group o f employers, however. Composition o f the product market served by firms and the attitudes of employers are the major determinants of employment opportunities for black workers. It is not clear 5 These conclusions are in agreement with, and rein force, the conclusions of the study of Chicago and Detroit mentioned in footnote 1. that the growth of these firms in the city near Negro neighborhoods has led to any change in 9 OCTOBER 1969 the composition o f markets for their products. Many of b. integrate Negro homes throughout the c. improve transportation and communica region, the institutions that have grown most rapidly serve regional or national markets from a central city location. Those that locate tion channels between Negro and subur in and serve Negro neighborhoods— the retail ban areas. and local service shops— probably have not sus The first approach, advocated by backers o f tained the same growth. Thus, growth of white- black capitalism and by many business and gov collar employment in the city probably has not given black workers special advantages in com ernment leaders, would make a dent in the prob lem o f inaccessibility.6 H owever, it may also peting for jobs. Still, black workers have made have harmful social effects in the long-run. In considerable progress in the white-collar occu part, the growing separation between the Negro pations. has community and major segments o f employment grown more rapidly in white-collar than blue- in the metropolitan area is increasing the breach between black and white communities. In Employment of black workers collar jobs during the sixties, with Negroes fill ing an increasing proportion o f the white-collar opportunities. This gain can be attributed to changes in attitudes o f employers and to a creased job opportunities within Negro com rapidly growing demand for office workers in subsidies would be required to help firms lo general. cating in ghetto areas defray the high costs of munities for primarily black workers might ac celerate this trend. In addition, government operation that have led many firms to leave IN AID OF NEGRO WORKERS The apparent improvement in the outlook for ghetto areas. Integration of housing is a long-term solution. jobs in white-collar occupations affects only one- Efforts in this direction over the last decade fourth o f the Negro labor force, however. For have shown little substantial progress for two the larger segment o f the black work force, the reasons. First, open-housing laws are enforced outlook is dimmer. Accessibility is a growing problem for black on a case-by-case basis. W ith limited manpower available for enforcement, there is a long lag workers in the blue-collar trades. The negative between occurrence of alleged discrimination impact of distance from job opportunities, com and correction o f the abuse. Second, segregation bined with the movement of blue-collar jobs to may be partly voluntary. Given freedom o f the suburbs and the concentration o f Negroes choice, many black workers may choose to live in the city casts a threatening shadow on the in black communities, although possibly not in outlook for employment o f Negroes in bluecollar occupations. Efforts to counteract the the city. effect of distance, therefore, will become im o f communication are perhaps the more practical portant ways of counteracting the problems o f inaccessi as suburbanization of employment Improvements in transportation and channels continues. In the abstract, there are three different kinds of solutions to the problem o f inaccessibility: a. increase employment in Negro areas, 10 6 For a more extensive discussion of this alternative see Richard W . Epps, “ T he Appeal of Black Capital ism,” Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Phila delphia, M ay, 1969. BUSINESS REVIEW bility in the near term. The flow of job infor campaign of the National Alliance of Business mation and transportation o f workers is more men, an effort to recruit the hard-core unem amenable to alteration by public policy than ployed, are helping improve communication on are housing patterns. Also, the consequent in employment opportunities. But, improved com crease in contact between black and white munications alone will not be sufficient to workers would be beneficial on social grounds. eliminate the effect of suburbanization o f em Urban transportation systems typically are ployment upon black workers in blue-collar composed o f public or quasi-public facilities, trades. A combination o f subsidized transporta subject to substantial government control, if not tion to reduce commuting cost and improved to direct public ownership. The kinds and lo communications would seem to have the great cations o f facilities provided, therefore, can be est chance of success. guided by government to serve objectives such as providing adequate transportation to ghetto residents. But, two problems complicate the provision o f transportation services to ghetto APPENDIX: A Note on the Methods and Data of the Study residents. First, because of the cost o f auto Estimates of the impact o f supply and demand ownership, most residents of poor neighborhoods upon the spatial variation of Negro employ must rely on mass transit. W hile fees on users of ment in the Philadelphia metropolitan area highways support the construction and main were made by correlation analysis. Three vari tenance of highways, fees on users of mass transit have generally not been sufficient to support their ables were correlated: one representing Negro employment; one representing the effect of de construction and maintenance. Thus, govern ment must decide to subsidize the transporta mand (market structure); and one representing the effect o f supply (accessibility). tion o f poor workers if it is to provide a suit able system o f mass transit for their use. Second, Negro Employment. The proportion of em suburban locations of employment are widely dispersed; they are laid out according to an autooriented transportation system. Mass transit is ployment made up by Negro workers in each area o f the city was used as the measure of most efficient for concentrated centers of em Negro employment: ployment and housing. Consequently, if mass % Negro employment in area i = number of Negro employees in area i transit can provide adequate transportation to dispersed centers o f employment in the suburbs, total number o f employees in area i the cost o f so doing will be high. Government and industry are currently in volved in communicating information on job Market Structure. The racial composition of openings. As evidenced by Philadelphia’s “ Job- each area was used as a proxy for variations mobile,” government is experimenting with new among areas in relative demand for Negro ways o f getting information on jobs to residents o f poor, inaccessible neighborhoods. In addition, workers. As explained in the text, demand for black workers may be affected by the composi special efforts by industry, such as the “ Jobs” tion of the market area served by the employer. 11 OCTOBER 1969 In occupations traditionally considered “ white,” As a first step, we measure the distance that demand for black workers may be low except workers must travel within and between dis in Negro firms and firms with mostly Negro tricts to get to work: work forces, both o f which tend to concentrate Distance From District Number in Negro areas. The relative number of Negroes living in each area, the index of demand, was 1 2 3 defined as: % Negro residents in area i = number o f Negro residents in area i total number o f residents in area i To district number 1 2 3 .5 1.0 1.5 1.0 .3 2.0 1.5 2.0 .4 Second, from a survey o f travel habits, we find out how far workers typically travel. From this we determine a curve showing the proportion Accessibility. An index o f relative accessibility of each area to Negro workers was used as a o f the workers that may be expected to travel each distance (see diagram). The fairly rapid proxy for supply. Conceptually, relative acces sibility represents the proportion o f all workers applying for work in each area that would be expected to be Negro. The index was computed in two parts— accessibility to all workers and Per Cent of Work Trips accessibility to Negro workers. The accessibility to Negro workers was then expressed as a per centage o f accessibility to all workers. Miles W e can explain the process o f computation by a simple example for a small town. Assume that a small town o f thirty workers is divided decline in the curve results from both the cost into three districts, as shown below: o f travel and the flow o f information about jobs. Finally, we apply this curve to the distance and Number of workers living in district District White Negro 1 2 3 0 10 5 10 0 5 ................... - labor force figures to determine how many workers may be expected to travel from each district to each other district. As an example, the number o f Negroes expected to travel to District Number 1 from each district is com puted in the following table: 12 A B C D E District Number Labor Force of District Distance to District 1 Proportion of Workers Expected to Travel Each Distance Column D Times Column B Equals Number of Workers Expected to Travel to District 1 i 2 3 10 workers 0 5 .5 miles 1.0 1.5 30% 15 5 3.33 0 .25 3.58 BUSINESS REVIEW The number o f Negro workers expected to racial composition o f the market travel to District 1 is 3.58. If the same calcu and relative accessibility, the two lation were carried out for all workers, we independent variables. would find that a total o f 5.33 workers would be expected to travel to District 1. Dividing the Then, Negro figure by the total figure gives the rela 1. The minimum per cent o f the variation tive accessibility of District 1 to black workers, in relative Negro employment separately equal to 67.2 per cent. attributable to the racial composition of These steps were carried out for 162 districts the local market is equal to, which comprise the greater Philadelphia area. All o f the data used were derived from the Transportation Survey o f the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission. Allocation of Variance. The variance com po nents listed in Table 1 were calculated from T>2 ^ e .a m _ 2 *ea 2. and, the minimum per cent variation separately attributable to relative acces sibility is equal to, ■p2 ^ e .a m _ r2 em correlation coefficients in the following manner: 3. and, the per cent variation attributable Let, rem—correlation coefficient between rela to relative accessibility and/or the racial tive Negro employment and racial composition of the local market, but not composition of the local market separable, is equal to, rea = correlation coefficient between rela tive Negro employment and relative accessibility Re am= coefficient of multiple correlation between 4. The per cent variation attributable to error and other factors is equal to, relative Negro employ ment, the dependent variable, and 13 OCTOBER 1969 Tall corn makes full silos, assuring succulent silage for winter-feeding to dairy cows and beef cattle. The ears o f yellow corn are big and full; bulging granaries gladden the hearts of dairy farmers and poultrymen. The Pennsylvania corn crop will probably come very close to the 1967 harvest which is the highest on record. The Commonwealth’s crop o f hay is said to be the largest since 1924 Full Silos and Bulging Corn Cribs by Evan B. Alderfer when Cal Coolidge presided over the country. South Jersey’s great market garden, which pro duced $60 million worth of vegetables in 1968, is currently expected to duplicate last year’s record in tonnage and might do even better in value. Reports from Delaware also promise an excellent 1969 harvest, based upon a late sum mer’s survey. What made the year so good for so many farmers in these three states was that the weather was on its best behavior most of the season— not too much frost, hail, high winds, high water, or drought. Farmers fare best when rain falls in the right amount at the right time. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN After the melting o f winter’s snow, moisture was generally adequate in April so that Penn sylvania farmers found the soil in good condi tion for plowing. May was warm and dry, permitting farmers to do their field work. June rainfall was a bit below normal, but soil was moist enough for good growth all month. July rainfall was overabundant, in some sections damaging. Corn grew so fast that it could al most be heard cracking, as they say in Iowa. Grass also luxuriated, but the abundance o f rain which brought heavy yields of hay impaired its quality in areas where the amount and fre quency o f rainfall interfered with drying and baling. The weather pattern in New Jersey and in Delaware was similar to that in Pennsylvania. 14 BUSINESS REVIEW HEAPING HARVESTS The dairy farming section o f northeastern Penn Mushrooms, o f course, are not affected by rainfall. In the fiscal year ending June 30, 1969, as people, experienced the best growing season Pennsylvania produced a $42 million crop. This is the Commonwealth’s leading cash crop, and ever. G ood weather for hay and good prices for the 121 million pounds produced accounted for sylvania, where there are almost as many cows milk made the region flow with milk and money. 64 per cent of the country’s mushroom pro One evidence o f prosperity in the northeast is duction. the number o f silos being built this year— more than in the past five years. South Jersey’s July rainfall was two and a half times the normal. That helped some crops but In our pomological paradise— Adams, Frank hurt others. Field crops and fruits seemed to lin, and York counties— fruit hung heavy at flourish with the excess moisture, but certain harvest. Apples are o f excellent size and hue, vegetables suffered. as were the peaches and pears harvested earlier. King of the New Jersey market garden is the However, considerable tonnage of cherries was tomato— some grown for the fresh market, left on the trees because heavy July rains caused others for processing. The ’69 harvest o f toma much cracking of the fruit. toes for the fresh market is expected to be about Perenially prosperous Lancaster County was 10 per cent less than the ’68 crop, but that per short on rainfall this season, but prospered all the same. Perhaps the shortage o f rain was con haps is explained by a reduction of the same proportion in acreage. Tomatoes grown for proc fined to the immediate area of the official rain gauges! There was a good harvest of hay. The essing are always measured and talked of in tons rather than hundred-weights. Canhouse toma corn fields look as if silos are going to overflow. toes, to use the trade lingo, suffered somewhat Fruits and vegetables did well. Tobacco fields from the July deluge. But not all of the 28 per cent drop in the ’69 expected harvest, com were reported to be yielding close to a ton per acre versus 1,700 to 1,800 pounds in previous years. A satisfactory crop of potatoes is also pared with ’68, can be attributed to excessive moisture. There was also a 19 per cent drop in expected. Dairymen and beef cattle feeders are acreage. Some o f the shrinkage in acreage may getting good yields of field crops for winter be attributable to unhappy memories of the ’68 feeding. The abundance of corn on the ear also strike at a leading canhouse which left tonnage benefits the poultrymen who have been receiving to rot in the fields. good prices for eggs. G ood land makes good New Jersey orchards yielded bountifully. The farming in Lancaster County. The w orld’s number one vegetable— the Irish expected harvest o f apples will be about 8 per potato— is a favorite crop with many farmers and a favorite ingredient in many chefs’ crea per cent. Blueberries are probably the best since tions. The 1969 Pennsylvania harvest is ex and size o f crop. cent over last year, and the peach crop up 24 the record 1966 crop, both for size of berries pected to be about 8 per cent larger than a year Cranberry bogs still keep New Jersey bar ago, and the New Jersey crop 8 per cent smaller relling along as the country’s third ranked because o f the damage done by the heavy July producer, despite a decline of about 5 per cent rains. from last year’s harvest o f 155,000 barrels. Late 15 OCTOBER 1969 spring frosts and late July’s heavy rains did That’s because it is April, and these tomatoes the damage. Incidentally, cranberry production were grown in a nearby greenhouse. is now farmer highly mechanized; who formerly for employed a The tomato greenhouse looks like an ordinary 500 glass greenhouse, or it may be a plastic affair. example, over workers now gets along with only 16 men. The seedlings, usually homegrown to reduce the Delaware farmers also had a growing season danger o f introducing disease problems, are characterized by local shortages of spring rains, planted in an artificial mixture o f horticultural precipitation aplenty at mid-season, and near ideal weather in late summer to assure good to vermiculite and shredded peat. For the spring crop, the seedlings may be started about Christ overflowing harvests. By all appearances, good yields are in store for the growers o f field corn mas time, transplanted about mid-February, and picked for the first time late in April. During the and soybeans— the state’s leading cash crops. entire growing season, these greenhouse plants Potatoes did well, although tomatoes encount need a tremendous amount o f care— pruning, ered too much moisture at harvest time for best watering, feeding, spraying, pollinating, and results. controlling temperature and humidity. Growing Broilers continue to hold the top spot in farm a crop of healthy greenhouse tomatoes is a task income in Delaware. Demand for broilers is that requires intensive care. A goof may ruin the holding up well, and broiler people are pros-, whole crop. pering. But broiler-growing has changed. Many small, independent growers with little capital have been displaced by large, integrated oper A SUGAR BEET POSTSCRIPT ators with big money. Major meat packers and being grown in our area. Lehigh, Northampton, Sugar beets, long grown in the W est, are now mash makers now own and operate the works and Bucks are the major counties raising sweet from beginning to end: they own the chicks, beets, although they also are being produced make the mash, run the dressing plants, sell in Lancaster, Berks, and Lebanon counties. the dressed broilers, and may even operate the Probably 1,500 acres o f the beets were planted restaurants where broilers are served. Some big in Pennsylvania this year. The crop is mainly operators own and process over forty million under contract to a sugar refinery in New York birds a year. Perhaps the most significant indi State. Yields o f 25 to 30 tons per acre are cation of the change in this industry was the expected. Sugar beets command $14 to $18 a permanent closing in mid-summer o f the Eastern ton, depending upon the sugar content, and Shore Poultry Growers Exchange. A GREENHOUSE TOMATO POSTSCRIPT there is also a Federal Government subsidy of $2 a ton. Under favorable circumstances, there fore, a farmer might gross as much or more in sugar beets as in tobacco. O f course, an invest As early as April, locally grown tomatoes appear ment of $12,000 to $15,000 for specialized in Philadelphia food markets— at a price. Tw o machinery is required to grow sugar beets. tomatoes, one about the size o f a baseball and Whether sugar beets have come here to stay, we the other a trifle smaller, may cost you 59 cents. do not know. 16 BUSINESS REVIEW For every ten commercial banks which existed in the Third Federal Reserve District two decades ago, there are only six today. This shrinkage has brought the banking industry under attack. Competition, it is claimed, is being threatened. The main concern generally is not for large corporations or for wealthy individuals. They are not likely to be limited to any specific geographical location, and can generally choose from a wide variety o f financial alternatives. Bank and Non-Bank Competition by Mark H. Willes Rather, the concern is for small corporations and the majority o f individuals who usually must fill their financial needs locally and, there fore, have the choice o f fewer alternatives. These are the customers most affected by any drop in the degree of competition in local finan cial markets. When examining changes in the competitive atmosphere in local banking markets, it is nec essary to do more than look at the number of mergers that have occurred and the concentra tion o f bank resources that has resulted. The growth o f non-bank financial institutions, as well as the location o f merging banks them selves, must also be considered in weighing the impact o f mergers on competition. Within the Third District, a study of these factors suggests that competition may not have been reduced to the extent that bank merger figures alone imply. COMPETITION FROM NON-BANKS Even though the number o f banks has slipped sharply, competition may not have been reduced correspondingly, thanks to the increased role of non-bank financial institutions. Growth of non bank financial institutions is significant to the financial customer because he can get a greater variety o f services at an increased number of alternative institutions. Non-bank institutions 17 OCTOBER 1969 provide substitutes for some o f the services of commercial banks ( for example, savings accounts and mortgage loans) and, therefore, help boost competition in at least some financial markets.1 For most individual and small corporate CHART 1 G row th o f com m ercia l banks in the district o v e r the past tw o d eca d es has lagged that o f n on -ban k financial institutions. Per Cent of Assets savers and borrowers in the Third District, the most familiar and ready alternatives to com mercial banks are mutual savings banks (M SB ’s) and savings and loan associations (S&L’s ).2 In the District as in the nation, these non-bank financial institutions have grown much more rapidly than commercial banks, as shown in Chart 1. From 1950 to 1967, assets o f savings banks in the Third District expanded steadily at an average annual rate o f 12.7 per cent, while District savings and loan associations grew at an average annual rate o f 27.4 per cent. In con trast, the average annual growth since 1950 of assets at commercial banks in the District has been only 7.9 per cent. The expansion of MSB’s and S&L’s in the District suggests that banks may now face more intense competition than they did in the past. H ow this relative growth o f other financial institutions has affected banking competition in so far as individuals and small businesses are concerned can be measured realistically only at SAVINGS AND LOAN ASSOCIATIONS the local market level.3 Since the degree o f bank competition in these local markets is primarily inesses, national or District banking data are determined by the number and size o f financial poor indicators of the competitive picture. A l alternatives open to individuals or small bus- though a banking market cannot be easily de termined, and no universal definition of a market 1 Mutual savings banks and savings and loan associa tions are pressing hard for expanded lending powers. If granted, this authority could lead to direct competition with commercial banks in additional consumer lending markets. 2 A more nearly complete picture of non-bank finan cial alternatives would include sales and consumer finance companies, credit unions, and insurance com panies. Suitable data, however, were not available for these institutions. 3 T he appendix contains a discussion of the definition of banking markets used in this article. 18 exists, it is possible to use counties as a very rough approximation.4 County borders certainly do not coincide with the complex boundaries of actual local bank markets for different prod4 It should be emphasized that the definitions and measures of markets used in this article are not neces sarily those used by the Federal Reserve or other agencies in determining the competitive effects of specific mergers. BUSINESS REVIEW TABLE 1 SHARE OF ASSETS HELD BY COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE THIRD DISTRICT (Number of Counties) Percentage of Total Assets Year Under 50% 1950 1967 0 1 50% -60 % 6 0 % -7 5 % 7 5 % -8 5 % 8 5 % -9 5 % 95% -10 0% 0 1 1 13 8 11 19 13 ucts. Counties, however, are the smallest geo graphical areas for which data can be readily 32 21 CHART 2 be suggestive of what has happened in many The share o f total assets held b y non-bank financial institutions is larger in m etro politan areas than in rural areas. local markets. Per Cent of Assets obtained, and the trends at this level should At the county level in the Third District, the growth of savings banks and S&L’s in the last two decades seems to have created new and stronger competitors for many Third District commercial banks. In 1950, commercial banks held 85 per cent or more of the combined as sets o f commercial banks, savings banks, and S&L’s in 51 o f the 60 Third District counties. By 1967, commercial banks had maintained that same share o f assets in only 34 counties; their relative role had increased in only six counties (see Table 1 ). MSB’s operate in only a half dozen of the sixty counties in the District. S&L’s, however, exist in all but nine counties. Between 1950 and 1967, the assets of S&L’s were expanding faster than those of commercial banks in 54 of the 60 counties, and MSB assets were growing faster than commercial bank assets in all but one of the counties in which MSB’s operate. Commercial banks located in metropolitan METROPOLITAN THIRD DISTRICT areas of the District probably have had to face tougher competition from S&L’s and savings banks than have their rural counterparts, largely because all savings banks in the Third District RURAL THIRD DISTRICT SAVINGS AND LOAN ASSOCIATIONS MUTUAL SAVINGS BANKS M W iM COMMERCIAL BANKS 19 OCTOBER 1969 are located in metropolitan counties.0 Chart 2 the diminishing number o f banks in the nation shows that commercial banks in rural areas and within metropolitan areas of the country. traditionally have controlled a larger share of financial assets in their respective markets than in the Third District is decreasing (see Chart It is certainly true that the number o f banks have metropolitan banks in their own markets. 3 ). But the decline in the number of banks does And the role o f commercial banks has not not present the entire story of local bank-to- declined as much in rural areas as it has in bank competition. A more realistic picture of metropolitan areas. In their respective markets, concentration within the banking industry is rural commercial banks still hold nearly 9 out of 10 dollars of total assets, compared with 7 one which is focused on the local market area relevant to any one customer and any one bank. out of 10 for metropolitan banks. The competitive implication of any merger may appear quite different when viewed in this INTER BANK COMPETITION way. For example, if a bank merges into a mar While it appears that in some counties many ket area where it previously had no offices, commercial banks now face greater competition competition in that area is not necessarily re from non-banks, commercial banks offer some services, such as checking accounts, which are duced. In fact, it may be enhanced by the entrance of a larger institution which possibly not available at other types o f financial institu is more progressive. tions. Demand for services offered exclusively by commercial banks, coupled with the demand for one-stop banking, makes the competition CHART 3 The number of commercial banks in the third district has declined. among commercial banks particularly important. As the number of commercial banks declines through merger, and the number o f branches in creases, it is argued that more and more bank offices are controlled by fewer and fewer banks. Thus, the assets o f commercial banks in any given geographical area are being increasingly concentrated into a few organizations— a de velopment which raises all the standard fears and warnings of the dangers o f oligopoly and monopoly. This line of argument has been prevalent in much o f the recent concern about bank mergers, and is an important factor in merger cases. This was noted, for example, in the denial o f the Philadelphia National-Girard Trust merger in 1962, when the Supreme Court commented on5 5 Counties designated as metropolitan are those included in one of the Third District’s 13 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas, as defined by the Bureau of the Budget. Rural counties are those not part of a S M S A . 20 BUSINESS REVIEW TABLE 2 Distance between Two Closest Offices Mergers Approved between January 1,1950 and May 31,1969 in the Third District Miles Mergers 0 Less than 1 1 to 2 2 to 5 5 to 10 10 to 15 Over 15 Total District Mergers Number 33 Per Cent 8.7 40 10.6 31 8.2 54 14.3 96 25.4 51 13.5 73 19.3 378 100.0 Metropolitan Area Mergers Number Per Cent 7 3.9 33 18.2 22 12.2 27 14.9 36 20.0 22 12.2 34 18.8 181 100.0 Non-Metropolita n Area Mergers Number 25 Per Cent 12.7 7 3.6 9 4.6 27 13.7 60 30.5 29 14.7 39 20.0 197 100.0 Table 2 presents results of a case-by-case though there is no steadfast rule that can be examination of the mergers approved in the used as a guideline to define a banking market, Third District since 1950. For each merger, the there is considerable evidence to support the distance between the two closest offices of the view that the market area for a given bank merging banks was measured. In cases where the two closest offices were located in the same office and for many important services is a localized one.6 If market areas extend two miles small town, a distance of zero miles was re corded, under the assumption that the market beyond a bank’s outermost branches, then 27.5 area o f a bank in a small town encompasses that since 1950 joined banks whose markets over lapped, and, therefore, by this definition, re duced competition because they cut the number entire town. If the two closest branches were located in the same city, but within one of the 13 SMSA’s in the Third District, actual mileage between the offices was used. This procedure per cent of the mergers that have occurred of options open to customers in those areas. If the definition of a market area were extended was used in the belief that the market area of a bank in a large metropolitan area does not neces sarily spread over the entire area. This would be especially true for the earlier years in the study period when the economic interaction between different sections of metropolitan areas was less than it is today. All mileages were taken as “ the shortest distance between two points,” not road miles. T o interpret the results o f this study, it is necessary to establish some criteria to deter mine the size of a bank’s market area. A l 6 A study completed in St. Louis showed that the average distance between a business firm and its hank was 5.7 miles for large firms and 2.9 miles for small firms. (Clifton B. Luttrell and W illiam F. Pettigrew, “ Banking Markets for Business Firms in the St. Louis Area,” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Review, September, 1 9 6 6 .) Metropolitan bankers consider the market area of their branch offices to be very local because the bulk of their business originates within a one-mile radius. (Thom as R. Hawk, “ Changes in Competition and Con centration W ith in Philadelphia Financial Markets, 19461966,” [Unpublished Master’s Thesis], University of Pennsylvania, 1 9 6 7 .) Each of these studies, and the cutolf values for market boundaries used in this section, imply a “ service-area” definition of bank markets. The appendix contains a discussion of this and other defini tions which could be used. 21 OCTOBER 1969 to five miles beyond the outermost branches, merger eliminates the possibility for potential the proportion o f these “ competition-reducing” competition, even though a given merger may mergers would climb to 41.8 per cent. Other not adversely affect existing competition.7 cutoff points, o f course, would yield still dif CONCLUSIONS ferent results. Bank offices in metropolitan areas usually The merger trend since 1950 has caused a con serve a smaller geographical market than those solidation within the banking industry that in rural areas. Table 2 shows a distribution of mergers in metropolitan and non-metropolitan many find alarming. Ample evidence can be pre sented to show that the number o f banks in the areas. When the two-mile limit is applied to the metropolitan mergers and the larger five-mile nation or in any large geographical area has declined in the last two decades, but it is de limit is used for the mergers that occurred in batable whether the necessary conclusion of this non-metropolitan areas, 34.1 per cent of the trend is greatly reduced competition. mergers may have reduced competition within local markets. Concern over the declining number of banks Extensive growth of non-bank financial in stitutions suggests that they have strengthened the degree o f competition faced by many com particularly strong in metropolitan mercial banks. Expansion of these institutions areas. In the Philadelphia SMSA, for example, indicates that their role in some banking mar is often the number of banks has plunged from 122 in kets is large enough to provide some important 1950 to 37 in 1967. It is often felt that figures competitive alternatives to commercial banks. like these are an indication o f the adverse ef The merger trend itself in the Third District, fects of bank mergers on competition within although it certainly reduces the number o f banks, metropolitan areas. Table 2, however, shows that may not have the anti-competitive effects that mergers in the Third District have had no more are claimed. If one definition of market areas (or equally) serious competition-reducing con is used, almost two-thirds of the mergers since sequences for metropolitan areas than for non 1950 occurred between banks which were suf metropolitan limit ficiently separated geographically so that a sub definition for metropolitan bank markets and stantial reduction o f direct competition is less areas. If the two-mile the five-mile limit for markets of non-metro than a certainty.8 In fact, increased competition politan banks are used, 34 per cent of the could be a possible consequence of some mer mergers in metropolitan areas and 35 per cent gers if they bring a more aggressive institution of those in non-metropolitan sectors may have into a local market. adversely affected existing competition. One caution should be noted. The designation of “ competition-reducing” mergers should be considered in terms o f potential as well as direct competition. Although the market areas of merging banks may not overlap, there may be the potential for de novo branching of one bank into the other’s market area. In such a case, 22 7 This could have immediate as well as longer-run effects on competition, since the threat of entry of potential competitors may influence the policies of exist ing competitors. 8 This statement does not take into account possible reduction in potential competition. There may be a tendency on the part of some observers who focus on issues of potential competition to overstate the anti competitive effects of many mergers. Some preliminary investigations into this area are currently underway at this Bank. BUSINESS REVIEW APPENDIX: Definition of a Bank Market Suppose, for example, Bank A is quite far from There is no unique definition of a banking mar Bank C and neither one can branch into the ket which is suitable for all purposes because, other’s area, so there appears to be little or no in part, there are many different bank markets direct or potential competition. It is neverthe which have quite different properties and di less possible that Bank A may be influenced by mensions. For example, a single bank may com the policies of Bank C if there is another bank, pete with other banks, non-bank financial in stitutions, and the open-market in the national Bank B, located between them which competes with both of them. This kind of indirect com market for large business loans. At the same petition would suggest that banking markets time, it may compete with only a few local banks should be drawn sufficiently large to include in direct as well as direct competitors. for the deposits o f neighborhood residents. The geographical and institutional dimensions of a Inclusion o f indirect and potential competi bank’s market, thereore, may vary widely de tors as well as direct competitors in a banking pending on what specific bank service ( product) market is very difficult in practice. Only those is being considered and the size of the bank. indirect and potential competitors that have But there is another and more difficult prob lem in trying to define a banking market. Some should be included. Unfortunately, no measures a significant effect on behavior in the market argue that banks compete only with banks or have yet been developed which can satisfactorily other institutions that draw customers from the same service area. On the other hand, it can be argued that the behavior o f an individual bank gauge the effects on competition o f indirect can be influenced by other banks that do not draw customers from the same service area. For example, if a bank knows that there are other what variables and elasticities are the important ones to measure. banks which could set up branches in its service essentially the service-area concept. It was not and potential competitors. In fact, there are still some unresolved theoretical issues as to The market concept used in this paper is area, but which are not there now, it might used because it was regarded as superior to behave differently than if there were no po broader definitions which include indirect and tential entrants into its area. Consequently, some would argue that the boundaries o f a potential competitors, but rather because of banking market should be drawn widely enough volved in other definitions. The market defini great theoretical and empirical complexities in to include potential as well as direct competitors. tions and measures used here do not necessarily Even where bank entry through branching is correspond to those used by the Federal Reserve not possible (for legal, regulatory, or other or other agencies in determining the competitive reasons), the situation can still be complicated. effects of specific mergers. 23 FOR THE RECORD... INDEX SUM M ARY BILLIONS $ Third Federal Reserve District United States Per cent change Per cent change August 1969 from mo. ago year ago 8 mos. 1969 from year ago August 1969 from mo. ago year ago Manufacturing Employment 8 mos. 1969 from year ago LOCAL CHANGES Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas* MANUFACTURING Production .................... Electric power consumed Man-hours, total* . . . Employment, total ___ Wage income* ............. CONSTRUCTION** ......... COAL PRODUCTION . . . . + 4 + 1 + 2 + 1 + 3 -2 8 + 42 + + + + + - 7 2 1 9 16 3 + 7 0 - 4 + 7 + 14 - 1 + 7 + 5 0 0 0 + 3 - 2 ot + 1 + 6 + 9 + 12 0 + 4 - 6 - 9 + 6 + 12 +1 7 1 + 211 + 6 + 41 + 3 - 4 + 11 - 4 + 1 1 1 1 1 2 + 2 + 12 - 4 -1 3 + 4 + 11 + + + + + 6 13 2 8 10 17 PRICES Wholesale ...................... Consumer ...................... + It •Production workers only ••Value of contracts •••Adjusted for seasonal variation 24 + 6t + 51 Wilmington . Per cent change August 1969 from Banking Payrolls Check Payments** Total Deposits*** Per cent change August 1969 from Per cent change August 1969 from Per cent change August 1969 from mo. ago year ago mo. ago year ago + 6 + 5 + 4 + 6 Atlantic City. BANKING (All member banks) Deposits ........................ Loans ............................ Investments ................. U.S. Govt, securities.. Other .......................... Check payments*** . . . MEMBER BANKS. 3RD. F.R.B. 0 0 + 4 + 6 +15 SMSA's ^Philadelphia + 4 + 5 year ago mo. ago mo. ago year ago - 1 + 38 + 2 + 8 - 4 0 + 3 + 7 Trenton . . . . + 1 + 5 + 2 + 4 + 12 + 11 - 4 + 8 Altoona ___ + 1 + 4 + 1 + 12 -1 1 + 4 + 1 + 8 0 + 2 + 7 + 2 + 15 0 + 10 1 0 +24 0 + 8 0 + 11 Harrisburg .. 0 Johnstown .. 0 Lancaster .. + 1 + 3 + 3 + 12 - 4 + 17 0 + 13 Lehigh Valley + 1 0 + 2 + 11 + 2 + 11 0 - 1 + 2 + 8 0 + 13 0 0 + 2 + 7 + 5 - 4 +22 0 + 9 - Philadelphia Reading . . . . 0 + 1 - - 7 Scranton . . . + 1 + 1 + 2 + 6 3 + 2 0 + 2 Wilkes-Barre . + 3 + 1 + 2 + 8 + 2 + 12 0 -2 0 Y o rk ............... + 2 + 3 + 3 + 11 - + 9 0 + 7 2 •Not restricted to corporate limits of cities but covers areas of one or more counties. ••All commercial banks. Adjusted for seasonal variation. •"Member banks only. Last Wednesday of the month.
@FedFRASER