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November 1951 ^J%>X 1~ R USINESS REVIEW 10V 27 1951 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA 1952 FORECAST OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES Philadelphia manufacturers plan to spend less for new plant and equipment in 1952 than in the year ended last September. All of the cutback is by producers of nondurables. The outstanding increase is by the industries making transportation equipment. Manufacturers in the metal trades generally expressed optimistic views on the outlook for next year. Local utilities have scheduled larger capital expenditures for 1952 than their 1951 outlays. WHO OWNS THE MORTGAGES? Figures obtained from registration statements under Regulation X provide new and useful information on mortgage lending in this district. At least 3,350 individuals and institutions are engaged in the business of extending real estate credit. They hold about $2 billion of mortgages for their own account and are servicing about $1 billion of mortgages for others. CURRENT TRENDS Business in the Third District was maintained at high levels during September. Production, payrolls, and bank loans increased, while building and trade eased off. THE BUSINESS REVIEW 1952 FORECAST OF CAPITAL EXPENDITURES A preview—based on a survey, showing how much Philadelphia industries plan to spend next year. This Bank has just completed its sixth annual survey of capital expenditures in Philadelphia—that is, money to be spent on plant expansion and modernization of equip ment. SUMMARY 1. Local utilities plan to spend more in 1952 than they did this year—up 47 per cent. 2. Manufacturing concerns are planning to spend less —down 20 per cent. 3. Manufacturers have most of the money in hand to build and to buy new equipment. 4. By next March 11,000 new jobs have to be filled. 5. Right now there is an acute shortage of skilled workers. Capital Expenditures Declining in 1952. Local manufacturers are planning to reduce their expenditures on construction and equipment in the year ending Sep tember 1952. Proposed outlays for the year are $100 million, or one-fifth less than the $126 million invested in the past year. Even with the reduction, spending for plant and equipment in 1952 will be above the 1950 level, which was the post-war low. The survey does not include concerns in the metropolitan area of Philadelphia beyond the city limits. Tools and Floor Space. The greater part of the new money is to go into new tools rather than additional floor space. This is in line with what they did last year and it is only natural because tools become obsolete and wear out faster than buildings. Nevertheless, construc tion, which accounted for one-third of the total of the past year’s expenditures, is expected to exceed 40 per cent of total outlays in 1952. Increased emphasis upon new construction relative to the past year reflects the need for more capacity in the expanding defense program. The cutback in expenditures for equipment may be inter preted to mean that the modernization program has Page 2 passed its peak and that further demands for tools of production are of a more normal replacement character. Durables Plan the Greater Expenditures. Planned expenditures will be more equally divided between dur able and nondurable industries during the coming year than in the past. The figures, however, do not tell the whole story. In Philadelphia, plants making durables are fewer and, dollar-wise, less important; therefore it is significant that they are making more than half of all capital outlays. It is also noteworthy that this will be the first time since World War II that they have ac counted for over 50 per cent of the total. The explanation is undoubtedly the war in Korea and the resultant mobil ization program. In September 1950, soon after the war began, our producers of durables estimated that their expenditures for the next year would amount to $32 million. Under the pressure of increasing defense de mands, however, they actually spent $52 million. Outlays in the coming year are expected to match this. ESTIMATED CAPITAL EXPENDITURES OF MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES IN PHILADELPHIA (In millions of dollars) Nov. 1947 to Sept. 1948 Oct. 1948 to Sept. 1949 Oct. 1949 to Sept. 1950 Oct. 1950 to Sept. 1951 To be spent within next year All manufacturing .... 130.1 111.3 94.9 126.1 100.1 32.8 31.6 52.3 52.3 Durable goods indus tries .............................. 28.4 Nondurable goods in dustries ........................ 101.7 Food and tobacco......... Textiles .......................... Apparel .......................... Lumber and furniture . Paper and printing.... Chemicals and petroleum Leather ............................ Iron and steel................. Nonferrous metals......... Machinery (including elec.) .......................... Transportation equip ment ............................ Miscellaneous ............... 78.5 63.3 73.8 47.8 19.6 24.8 1.0 1.1 26.2 25.5 .4 6.7 .8 15.7 23.9 2.5 1.3 12.4 17.7 1.0 8.5 .5 16.4 11.6 1.0 1.1 7.9 20.2 1.2 3.9 2.4 15.8 14.5 2.2 1.5 10.6 24.2 .9 8.3 1.0 8.0 4.9 .7 .6 8.0 23.8 .3 6.2 1.8 11.0 13.5 14.8 32.6 21.5 7.6 5.4 7.0 7.3 8.3 6.1 5.1 9.4 18.8 5.5 THE BUSINESS REVIEW The manufacturers of transportation equipment and the producers of nonferrous metals are the only major groups contemplating bigger capital expenditures than last year. Outlays by the former are to be more than tripled and by the latter almost doubled. Defense always requires mobile equipment of all kinds. Among producers of nondurables, capital expenditures are being reduced in every major category, as shown in the accompanying table. Chemical and petroleum con cerns were the heaviest investors in this group in the past year, and indications are that they will be again. The fact that they are planning to spend just about as much next year as they did in 1951 reflects the import ance of local petroleum refineries, whose products go hand in hand with transportation equipment. Last year, manufacturers of food and tobacco products spent a sub stantial amount on plant and equipment, but expenditures for the ensuing year are to be reduced by one-half. The expanding defense program accelerated capital expenditures by businessmen throughout the country. According to the McGraw-Hill survey reported last March, the country’s manufacturers intended stepping up 1951 expenditures to $13 billion, two-thirds above their 1950 outlays. This is in contrast with an increase of onethird by Philadelphia manufacturers for the years ended in mid-September of 1950 and 1951. Nationally, the larg est percentage increases (1951 over 1950) were planned by the steel industry (134 per cent) and the producers of transportation equipment (81 per cent). Locally, the greatest 1951 increases over 1950 were in the machinery (120 per cent) and the steel (113 per cent) industries. Locally, 1951 outlays by producers of transportation equipment were smaller than the 1950 expenditures. However, contemplated outlays for next year are very much larger, as previously indicated. Source of Funds. Industrial concerns expect to con tinue financing the overwhelming amount of contem plated capital expenditures from their own resources. Manufacturers’ own funds will supply about 91 per cent of the amount needed to carry out scheduled plant ex pansion and purchases of new equipment. This differs very little from the percentage of last year. They expect to borrow $6 million or about 6 per cent of their re quirements from the banks. Expanding Employment. Manufacturing employ ment in this area has been rising and is apparently going still higher. Our survey shows that from September 1950 to September 1951 employment rose 5 per cent, with most of the expansion taking place in the durable goods in dustries. This was in line with the increase in capital expenditures of this group and reflects the speed-up in the defense program. All major lines registered gains over a year ago, except for textiles and leather. Iron and steel and transportation equipment, which occupy key positions in the defense program, accounted for the largest increase in employment. The survey indicates further increases over the short term. Factory employment in Philadelphia, which was 365,000 in September, is expected to rise to 376,000 by March 1952. Manufacturers in the metal trades, already faced with serious shortages of skilled craftsmen, may encounter still greater difficulties in meeting their labor requirements. Comments on the Business Outlook. Various shades of opinions on the business outlook were expressed by Philadelphia manufacturers. A carpet weaver reported: Anticipate only fair business this fall, generally in creasing from February on through spring.” A men’s clothing manufacturer said: “Conditions in our industry do not look too promising.” A producer of industrial chemicals reported: “Outlook continues favorable in the light of continued expenditures for defense;” and a manufacturer of steel castings comments—“The outlook is excellent. We have the biggest backlog of orders we’ve had since February 1945.” Comments on the short-run business outlook by producers of soft goods—notably apparel, textile and paper products—were generally un favorable but most manufacturers of durables, par ticularly the basic metals and fabricated metal products used in the defense program, made optimistic forecasts. Larger Expenditures by the Utilities. The local utilities—communications, electricity, gas, city transit, and the railways are planning to spend approximately $100 million next year in contrast with $68 million last year. In the case of one of the utilities, however, the estimates include expenditures for not only Philadelphia proper but also the adjoining counties of the metropolitan area. This is by way of providing for future needs of new industries growing up in the ever-widening indus trial fringe of Philadelphia. Page 3 THE BUSINESS REVIEW WHO OWNS THE MORTGAGES? Analysis of Registration Statements under Regulation X Filed by Lenders in the Third Federal Reserve District At the end of last May at least 3,350 individuals and institutions in the Third Federal Reserve District, in one way or another, were engaged in the business of extend ing real estate credit. They held approximately $2.2 bil lion of mortgages for their own accounts, and were serv icing about $1 billion for others. These figures, and those which follow, are the high lights of tabulations of registration statements filed un der Regulation X of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Before giving further details, it should be made clear what the figures do not represent. They do not represent the total volume of mortgages or the total number of lenders. Lenders who extended credit less than four times in 1950 or 1951 and who extended an aggregate volume of $50,000 or less during the same periods were not required to register. The data do not include loans for real estate purposes which are not secured by mortgages. They are a measure of the amount NUMBER OF REGISTRANTS AND AMOUNT OF MORTGAGES OUTSTANDING Third Federal Reserve District—May 31, 1951 Number of registrants with— gages No Mort serv jages held iced mort for for own gages others and no account ( mil servic (mil ing lion8 $) lions $ ) 3 651 654 1 23 24 10 10 .. . 684 2 ** Mutual savings 207 Trust departments 10 Non-profit organ- 1 3 141 145 45 1 27 Mortgage com- 46 26 487 3 5 22 30 18 34 82 82 529 332 295 37 360 267 1,184 636 ............. 2,155 1,013 870 340 2,140 3,350 Real estate brokers Others ................... Total * Includes registrants with loans for own account and loans serv iced for others. * * Less than $500,000. Page 4 DISTRIBUTION BY SIZE OF MORTGAGE HOLDINGS 621 350 142 All regis trants 621 731 286 Commercial banks. Savings and loan associations .... Insurance com- Mort gages serv Mort iced for gages others for own only account* of mortgages held by institutions and individuals in this district, not of the total amount of mortgage debt owed by people in the district. Finally, they represent the volume of mortgages held, rather than the amount of loans made. Although the data have limitations, they nevertheless provide considerable new and useful infor mation about mortgage loans in the Third District. More than one-third of those who registered under Reg ulation X held no loans at all for their own account on May 31, 1951. In this category were, for the most part, real estate brokers, builders and developers, mortgage brokers, and the like, who usually do not hold mortgages permanently. Many of these reported mortgages held for the account of others which they were servicing. At the other extreme the statements indicate that there are about two dozen lenders who hold over $10 million each of mortgages and who account for about one-third of the total amount reported in the district as a whole. These are the extremes. The typical lender is a small busi ness. The amount of mortgages held for its own account averaged about $1 million per registered lender. The picture varies widely, however, depending on the type of lender we are talking about. The figures indicate that four main types of lending institutions hold nine- Percentage distribution Amount of mortgages held for own account No loans ................................ Under $25,000 ................. $25,000-100,000 ................. $100,000-500,000 .................. $500,000-1,000,000 ............. $1,000,000-5,000,000 .......... $5,000,000-10,000,000 .... $10,000,000-25,000,000 ... $25,000,000-50,000,000 ... $50,000,000 and over----Total ..................................... * Less than 0.5 per cent. Type of mortgage Number °f. regis trants FHA 37% 11 10 21 9 11 1 VA All NonConven resi mort tional dential gages * * * * * * * i * * i i * 8 8 4 3 12 10 9 6 36 37 35 41 25 13 11 12 17 14 11 10 * 12 9 12 5 3 * 6 5 3 16 18 * 12 15 37 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% n n THE BUSINESS REVIEW tenths of the mortgages, and these lenders seem to fall into two groups: commercial banks and savings and loan associations form one group; insurance companies and mutual savings banks make up another. Commercial banks and savings and loan associations each account for about one-third of the total outstanding mortgages held for own account. They are the most numerous of the four types of institutions, their average portfolio is small (about $1 million), and they operate for the most part on a local level. Insurance companies and mutual savings banks account for 13 and 10 per cent, respectively, of CHARACTERISTICS OF MORTGAGE PORTFOLIOS OF MAJOR LENDERS (Mortgages held for own account) Com mercial banks Savings and loan assoc. Insurance companies Mutual savings banks $11.9 $20.7 Third Federal Reserve District Average amount (millions) . $1.2 $1.0 Distribution of holdings: FHA Insured...................... VA insured or guaranteed Not guaranteed or insured 13% 25 38 i% 19 79 20% 18 42 16% 22 54 Total residential .... Other properties ............... 76% 24 99% 1 80% 20 92% 8 Total ............................ 100% 100% 100% 100% Philadelphia Average amount (millions) $4.0 $1.2 $20.9 $45.1 Distribution of holdings: FHA insured ...................... VA insured or guaranteed Not guaranteed or insured 29% 10 39 2% 20 77 22% 19 37 18% 24 50 78% 22 99% 1 78% 22 92% 8 Total ............................ 100% 100% 100% 100% Total residential___ Other properties ............... Outside Philadelphia Average amount (millions) $1.1 $1.0 $3.0 $4.4 Distribution of holdings: FHA insured...................... VA insured or guaranteed Not guaranteed or insured 10% 28 38 1% 18 80 6% 16 70 1% 8 83 Total residential__ _ Other properties ............... 76% 24 99% 1 92% 8 92% 8 Total ............................ 100% 100% 100% 100% total outstandings. In contrast with the more than 1,200 commercial banks and savings and loan associations, there are only 34 registered insurance companies and mutual savings banks, and their lending activities are large-scale. The average portfolio of the insurance com panies is about $12 million, and over 90 per cent of the total holdings of insurance companies is held by four companies with portfolios of more than $25 million each. The average portfolio of mutual savings banks is even larger. The lending institutions pursue different portfolio policies depending upon their size and location. For example, savings and loan associations tend to con centrate on conventional loans (that is, loans not guar anteed or insured by the Government) ; these account for more than three-fourths of their total holdings. Of the four types of institutions, commercial banks have gone most heavily into VA financing. In contrast, insurance companies concentrate to a greater extent than the other lenders on FHA mortgages. The concentration of lending is greater in the case of some types of mortgages and some types of lenders than in others. Less than one per cent of the registrants held more than one-half of the FHA mortgages, as compared with one-fourth to one-third of the VA and “conventional” loans. There are exceptions, of course. Considerable differences in portfolios can be observed between lenders located in Philadelphia and lenders in other parts of the district. As far as savings and loan associations are concerned, location seems to make little difference. But commercial banks in Philadelphia have about three times as much in FHA as in VA mortgages, while the exact reverse is the case in banks outside of Philadelphia. Insurance companies outside of Philadelphia follow policies more nearly like those of smaller financial institutions; they hold a much larger proportion of conventional loans and a smaller proportion of FHA loans. Similarly, sav ings banks outside of Philadelphia place more emphasis on conventional loans and less on both FHA and VA loans. Servicing of mortgages for others is carried on mostly by mortgage companies, although commercial banks take over a large part of this function in areas outside of Philadelphia. Page 5 THE BUSINESS REVIEW CURRENT TRENDS Economic activity in the Third Federal Reserve District continued buoyant in September. Most major business and bank ing indexes showed gains for the month with construction and department store sales among the exceptions. Production in Pennsylvania manufacturing plants increased for the first time in six months. The greatest advances in output occurred in the industries producing nondurable goods such as food and tobacco, where seasonal expansion took place. Manufacturers of durables, especially furniture, also registered gains. Increased industrial production was accom panied by larger payrolls and a longer work week, but there was no significant change in employment. Retail trade, judged by department store sales, dipped slightly during September. Buying failed to attain last year’s level for the third consecutive month but latest reports indicate that sales were holding their own in October. Although department stores have been reducing their stocks, inventories are still large in view of declining sales. The value of construction contract awards dropped during the month, reflecting decreases in both residential and nonresidential building. Awards continued below those of the corresponding month a year ago. Repayments exceeded new loans made in the four weeks to October 24 at Third District weekly reporting member banks and total loans declined $8 million. The moderate decline in loans was due principally to a decrease in mort gage loans, although accommodation to business was also down somewhat. The Nation’s privately owned money supply increased by almost SI billion in September, bringing expansion for the past three months above S3 billion. Renewed vigor in bank lending during the third quarter, and purchasing of Govern ments, plus a shift of deposits from Government to private accounts contributed to the expansion. The rise in the private money supply in the third quarter was larger than for the comparable period of any other post-war year. Third Federal Reserve District SUMMARY United States Per cent change Per cent change EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME Factory employment. . . Factory wage income... Sept. 1951 from 9 mas. 1951 from year year ago ago Sept. 1951 from mo. ago OUTPUT Manufacturing production. Construction contracts.... Coal mining........................... mo. ago + 1* + 2* + 1D + 1 + 4 -10 -15 + 7 - 4 PRICES Wholesale. . Consumers. OTHER Check payments.... Output of electricity. -15 + 16 -13 - 9 LOCAL CONDITIONS + 13 + 13 + 5 Payrolls Sales Stocks Per cent change Sept. 1951 from Per cent change Sept. 1951 from Per cent change Sept. 1951 from Per cent change Sept. 1951 from year ago + 6 + 20 -10 - 7 4 -15 - 3 - 9 - 5 + 5 0 + 4 + 5 + 17 - 5 +21 + 4 + 12 +23 - 3 - 3 + 3 + 10 - 2 2 - 2 + - 2 -6 + 9 + 12 year ago mo. ago + 5 + 3 8 year ago mo. ago year ago mo. ago year ago Per cent change Sept. 1951 from mo. ago mo. ago + 9 0* + 9* + 0* + 12* + 24* 3* - 4 + 5 +2 +1 +1 +1 +1 + 15 + 23 + 2 + + 3 - + -11 + + 0 + 4 + 6 8 - 8 2 + 12 + 7 + 15 + 23 + 6 + 6 1 - 4 1 6 1 1 + 6 - + 7 5 + Of + 7f + 10+ - 3 Lancaster........................... -1 - 1 + i + 6 + 20 Philadelphia...................... ♦Pennsylvania _ . **Adjusted for seasonal variation, fPhiladelphia. Page 6 9 mos. 1951 from year year ago ago Check Payments Employ ment —1 -2 +4 TRADE** Department store sales. . . . Department store stocks.. . BANKING (All member banks) Deposits.......................... Loans............................... Investments................... U.S. Govt, securities. Other............................. Department Store Factory* +2 + i + 3 + 8 + 47 -3 + 6 + 4 -10 - 3 - 2 + 29 -4 + 2 + 24 - 9 — ID - 4 + 2 +3 + 13 + 18 -21 + 1 -8 + 3 -10 - 3 - 1 + i + 12 + 7 -11 -13 Reading.............................. 8 -11 -1 - +3 - 6 + 7 - 1 + 4 - 2 + 14 + 15 + 9 +33 Wilkes-Barre..................... -1 - 2 + 4 + 5 York.................................. 0 + 5 0 — 2 + 3 - 9 - 2 - 1 + 1 + 13 — 2 +1 + 14 + 22 + 5 +3 + 8 + 11 ♦Not restricted to corporate limits of cities but covers areas of one or more counties. THE BUSINESS REVIEW MEASURES OF OUTPUT EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME Per cent change 9 mos. Sept. 1951 1951 from month ago MANUFACTURING (Pa.). Durable goods industries.............. Nondurable goods industries year ago year ago +11 + 1 + 1 Foods........................ Tobacco................. Textiles.................... Apparel........................ Lumber...................... Furniture................ Paper........................ Printing and publishing................ Chemicals.................. Petroleum and coal products. . . Rubber....................... Leather...................... Stone, clay and glass.......... Primary metal industries........... Fabricated metal products.... Machinery (except electrical) . . . Electrical machinery. . . . Transportation equipment........... Instruments and related products Misc. manufacturing industries + 1 - 1 + 6 + 1 + i + i 0 +21 0 4- 2 o + 3 + 2 + i COAL MINING (3rd F. R. Dist.)*. . . . Anthracite................... Bituminous.................. CRUDE OIL (3rd F. R. Dist.)** + 15 +20 + 15 + 2 + 31 + 4 -13 - 9 - 7 CONSTRUCTION—CONTRACT AWARDS (3rd F. R. Dist.)t. Residential.................. Nonresidential............ Public works and utilities. . -12 - 2 - 8 + 13 -15 - 2 + 16 + 61 | *U.S. Bureau of Mines. ♦♦American Petroleum Inst. Bradford field. F W- Dodge Corporation. Changes computed from o-montn moving averages, centered on 3rd month. Pennsylvania Manufacturing Industries* Era ployment Average Weekly Earnings Payrolls Per cent change change Sept. Sept. from from 1951 1951 (In- mo. year (In- mo. year dex) ago ago ago ago AH manufacturing___ 138 0 0 400 + 3 +12 Durable goods industries........... 168 + 6 469 1 + 20 Nondurable goods % chg. from Indexes (1939 avg. = 100) Tobacco............. Textiles............ 109 134 88 69 130 157 Lumber.............. Furniture and lumber products............. 107 134 Printing and........... publishing............ 122 Chemicals. . . 152 Petroleum and coal products............. 158 Rubber............... 246 81 Stone, clay and 144 Primary metal industries............... 142 Fabricated metal products............. 176 Machinery (except electrical).... 242 Electrical 268 Transportation 169 Instruments and related products. . . 188 Misc. manufacturing industries............... 143 0 +5 +7 0 -1 +6 +2 +1 + 1 -21 -29 195 375 315 108 0 + 5 0 432 -13 -1 1951 Sept. 1951 ago $64.89 +11 % chg. from ago $1.61 +11 72.01 + 13 1.74 +12 54.22 55.63 36.59 50.39 40.78 45.71 + + + — + + 6 8 9 2 9 4 1.40 1.33 .94 1.38 1.14 1.10 + + + + + + -26 + 4 55.34 63.53 + 7 + 7 1.26 1.52 +12 + 5 74.93 66.02 + i> + 3 1.90 1.58 + 5 + 4 + 8 + 22 -10 82.36 77.91 44.74 + 8 + 11 + 3 2.00 1.89 1.21 + 7 + 17 + t + 19 64.89 + 9 1.63 + 9 + 23 80.31 + 15 1.95 + 11 . ~ + 7 + 13 0 + 6 + 11 -22 - 1 322 422 -1 Average Hourly Earnings 0 + 1 1 0 409 8 6 7 9 8 6 -F"5 + 1 486 + 1 +11 65.71 + 8 1.60 + 8 +u 687 + 1 + 28 72.15 + 15 1.69 + 13 646 + 5 + 12 0 + 17 472 0 + 12 539 +1 + 3 377 0 +5 + 20 67.50 + 12 1.64 +29 79.27 + 11 1.90 + 7 + 2 +25 65.51 + 12 1.60 + 10 + 2 +10 53.94 + 8 1.29 + 8 ♦Production workers only. TRADE Per cent change Third F. R. District Indexes: 1935-39 Avg. = 100 Adjusted for seasonal variation Sept. 1951 Sept. 1951 from (Index) month year ago ago - 3 - 4 -12* STOCKS Department stores............. Women’s apparel stores. . . . Furniture stores......... 302p 252 0 +3 0* + 10 + 5 + 16* ‘ ■ : Per cent change from year ago -6 0 0 -2 +3 Main store total........... Piece goods and household textiles......... Small wares.......... Women’s and misses’ accessories. . . Women’s and misses’ apparel. . Men’s and boys’ wear......... Ilomefurnishings.... Other main store......... p—preliminary. -10 6 -12 -14 3.1 +i 4.0 3.1 2.0 4.3 2.9 4.8 +i Basement store total........... Domestics and blankets.......... Small wares............ Women s and misses’ wear........... Men s and boys’ wear.... Homefurnishings. . . Shoes.................. Nonmerchandise total......... ♦Not adjusted for seasonal variation. 2.9 ; : : October 6 October 13. . . October 20... . October 27 November 3. . . . Stocks (end of month) Total—All departments. . . Recent Changes in Department Store Sales in Central Philadelphia Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Week ended Sales % chg. % chg. % chg Sept. 9 mos. Sept. Ratio to sales 1951 1951 1951 (months’ supply) from from from September year year ago 1951 1950 ago ago * -1 -7 + 5* Third F. R. District i $— — i i 302 219 Departmental Sales and Stocks of Independent Department Stores eo +++ SALES Department stores........... Women’s apparel stores......... Furniture stores............ 9 mos. 1951 from year ago i } 2.2 o + 11 - 5 1.7 2.6 2.8 2.4 +2 Page 7 THE BUSINESS REVIEW BANKING CONSUMER CREDIT Receiv ables (end of month) Sales Sale Credit MONEY SUPPLY AND RELATED ITEMS United States (Billions $) Sept. 26 1951 % chg. % chg. % chg. Sept. Sept. 9 mos. 1951 1951 1951 from from from year ago yearago year ago Third F. R. District Money supply, privately owned. 177.9 Demand deposits, adjusted. . . . Time deposits............................... Currency outside banks............. + 2 + 5 -13 Turnover of demand deposits. . . Department stores - 7 - 7 -17 Charge account................................................................. Instalment account.......................................................... + 3 -15 Changes in— four weeks 4- .9 +6.3 92.0 60.5 25.4 + + + 4.0 + 1.4 + .9 22.0* + 1.4* + 1.4* -6 .2 + .1 Commercial bank earning assets Instalment account ........................................................ + 6 + 15 + 6 Loan bal ances out standing (end of month) Loans made Loan Credit Third F. R. District - 7 % chg. % chg. % chg. Sept. Sept. 9 mos. 1951 1951 1951 from from from yearago yearago year ago Consumer instalment loans Commercial banks........................................................... Industrial banks and loan companies........................ Small loan companies................................................... Credit unions................................................................ ■ • - 4 — 2 + 14 + 6 - 6 0 + 14 + 3 - 4 4- 1 + 10 + 7 + 1.5 + 5.0 56.0 59.7 12.9 + 8 + .5 + -2 +7.0 19.4 18.8 .6 + .5 + -3 + 2.7 Required reserves (estimated). Excess reserves (estimated). . . + 3 - 6 - 4 128.6 Loans.............................. .. ......... U.S. Government securities . . . Other securities........................... Member bank reserves held. . . . Furniture stores + -2 -2.8 + •» + 3.0 - .3 Changes in reserves during 4 weeks ended September 26, reflected the following: Effect on reserves Increase in Reserve Bank holdings of Governments. . Other Reserve Bank credit................................................ Gold and foreign transactions.......................................... Net payments to the Treasury........................................ Other transactions................................................................ +.4 + -3 + -2 — -2 ” -2 Change in reserves................................................................ +-3 * Annual rate for the month and per cent changes from month and year ago at leading cities outside N. Y. City. Oct. PRICES OTHER BANKING DATA four weeks 20.5 1.8 5.6 .6 5.9 + .4 - .1 0 + .2 0 + + + + 34.4 38.7 83.0 + .5 + -8 + 1.6 + 4.8 - 1.4 + 5.1 + + + 4 i 9 2 2 + 206 + 1 - 2 + 7 + 16 - 8 + i + 9 + 228 -199 + 35 + + + + - + 3.2 + 4.4 - 1.1 + 1.2 + -1 Per cent change from Sept. 1951 (Index) Index: 1935-39 average =100 month ago year ago 220 249 238 206 Week ended November 6.......................... Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 8 All com modi ties 220 220 220 220 220 5 5 6 5 0 0 0 +i + + + + 7 1 7 9 152 221 169 Weekly Wholesale Prices—U.S. (Index: 1935-39 average =100) + + + + 187 186 221 204 Consumer prices 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 Farm prod ucts 254 257 253 253 254 Foods 242 242 240 240 240 + 4 + 9 + 10 Weekly reporting banks—leading cities United States (billions $): Loans— . , Commercial, industrial and agricultural. Security.............. .............................................. Real estate....................................................... To banks........................................................... All other............................................................ Total loans—gross. Investments................ Deposits...................... Third Federal Reserve District (millions $): Loans— . Commercial, industrial and agricultural. . . Security............................................................... Real estate......................................................... To banks............................................................. All other.............................................................. Changes in— 1951 801 44 133 7 392 Total loans—gross.......................................... Investments.......................................................... Deposits................................................................. 1,377 1,508 3,207 Other Member bank reserves and related items United States (billions $): Member bank reserves held.......................... Reserve Bank holdings of Governments. . Gold stock........................................................... Money in circulation.............. ........................ Treasury deposits at Reserve Banks.......... 19.8 23.7 22.1 28.3 .5 203 203 203 203 204 Federal Reserve Bank of Phila. (millions $): Loans and securities........................................ Federal Reserve notes......... ........................... Member bank reserve deposits.................... Gold certificate reserves................................. Reserve ratio (%)............................................ 1,500 1,691 923 1,199 44.4% .5 .2 .1 .2 .3 year 4.2 .4 .5 .3 -2 + 217 1 + 77 + 132 + 10 - 56 - 5 - .i% - 5.2% -
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