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THE BUSINESS REVIEW THIRD FEDERAL PHILADELPHIA RESERVE DISTRICT NOVEMBER i, i933 By RICHARD L. AUSTIN, Chairman and Federal Reserve Agent FEDERAL RESERVE BANK oj PHILADELPHIA Business and Banking Conditions in the United States During September and the first half of October, industrial activity de clined, as it had in August, following the rapid expansion of the spring and early summer. Factory employment and payrolls increased further between the middle of August and the middle of September. declines in output of automobiles, bi tuminous coal and petroleum were re ported. Steel mill activity, after in creasing in the first half of October, receded in the third week. Employment. Employment of fac tory workers increased between the middle of August and the middle of September, and total earnings were larger, partly as a result of further advances in wage rates and the expan sion of operations in seasonally active industries such as canning. Employ ment in public utilities, railroads, stores and mines also increased and it is estimated that about 600,000 indus trial wage earners found work during the period. Preliminary reports for the first half of October indicate some decrease in employment and a continuation of about the same volume of earnings in basic manufacturing industries. Production. Industrial production, as measured by the Board’s seasonally ad justed index, declined from 91 per cent of the 1923-1925 average in Au gust to 84 per cent in September. Activity decreased in most lines of in dustry, and particularly in those in which output had increased rapidly in earlier months. Production of steel, lumber, cement, bituminous coal and petroleum declined considerably and automobile output was reduced. De liveries of silk to mills were small in September while consumption of cot ton and wool, although reduced during the month, was nevertheless larger than in other recent years at this sea son. Meat-packing plants were more active partly because of processing of pigs under the Government’s emer gency marketing program, and output of flour was larger than the exception ally small volume produced in August. In the first half of October further Construction. Construction contracts awarded increased in September to the highest level for the year, according to reports by the F. W. Dodge Corpora tion, the largest volume of new awards being for public works and for other non-residential projects. In the third quarter of the year value of construc- INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION WH0LESALE PRICES Index number of industrial production, ad justed for seasonal variation. (1923-1925 av erage = 100.) Indexes of the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. (1926 = 100.) tion contracts was 25 per cent of the 1923-1925 average. Sales at department stores in leading cities increased less than seasonally in September, follow ing an unusually large increase in sales in August. Trade reports indi cate that sales volume was affected by unseasonably warm weather and by price advances. Sales of chain variety stores continued in somewhat larger volume than in 1932. On the rail roads, average daily freight shipments during September increased by some what less than is usual in the early autumn, but were in larger volume than at any time since the latter part of 1931. In the first two weeks of Octo ber carloadings were at a higher level than in late September. Distribution. FACTORY EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS • I dim payrolls, without adjustment for seasonal variation. (1923-1925 average = 100.) MILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4000 ----------------- RESERVE BANK CREDIT Wednesday figures for 12 Federal res. banks. Latest figures are for October 18. During September and the first two weeks of October the gen eral average of wholesale prices in the United States was relatively stable at about 71 per cent of the 1926 average, reflecting, however, widely divergent movements in prices of individual commodities. Prices of raw materials traded on organized exchanges de clined sharply during the first two weeks of October and then recovered somewhat. There have been further advances during recent weeks in prices of fuels, iron and steel, building ma terials and housefurnishings, while prices of cotton textiles and leather have declined. Retail prices of food showed little change in September, while prices of clothing continued to advance. Prices. Foreign exchange. The value of the dollar in the foreign exchange market fluctuated around 65 per c.ent of its gold parity during the latter part of September and the first half of Octo ber, advanced to 71 per cent in the third week, and declined to 70 per cent on October 23. Bank credit. Excess reserves of member banks increased by $100,000, 000 between September 13 and Octo ber 20, in consequence of the purchase by the Federal Reserve Banks of $170,000,000 of United States Govern ment securities during the period, off set in part by a further decline in dis counts and a seasonal increase in the demand for currency. While these purchases of United States Govern ment securities were made chiefly in New York City, member bank funds arising from these purchases were transferred to other parts of the coun try through expenditures in outlying areas by Federal agencies and through payment for crops marketed. At reporting member banks in lead ing cities there was little change in loans and investments during this period; a decline in the volume of loans on securities was offset by growth in all other loans. Money rates in the open market continued at low levels. On October 20 the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reduced its buying rate on bills from a range from 1 to per cent for different maturities to a range from, )/?, to 1 per cent. The rediscount rate at New York was reduced from 2^2 per cent to 2 per cent, effective Octo ber 20, and on October 21, the Federal Reserve Banks of Cleveland and Chi cago reduced their rediscount rates from 3 per cent to 2J4 per cent. Business and Banking Conditions in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve District There was an additional improve ment in retail trade activity but a further recession in industrial produc tion during September; these diver gent tendencies continued in early Oc tober for the third successive month. Output of manufactures, after an un usually sharp rise between spring and mid-summer, has shown a fairly steady contraction since a high peak in July. Production of industrial fuels natu rally has reflected a similar trend. Activity in building trades continued at an unusually low level, although lately it has shown some improvement in a certain type of construction heavier than that of residential build ing. Industrial employment and payrolls in the aggregate, as measured by 12 occupations in this section, showed a continued gain for six months, the most pronounced increases occurring in the third quarter, reflecting the in fluence of the application of blanket or industry codes. Latest preliminary reports front Pennsylvania factories and coal mines, however, indicate that the number of wage earners and man hours actually worked in the first part of October decreased. The value of retail trade sales in September again showed an excep tional increase and the volume has been fairly well maintained in Octo ber, gains being most noticeable in the latter part of the month. Wholesale and jobbing business, on the other hand, failed to register the usual in crease by a considerable margin in September. Other indicators of dis tribution, except that of new passen ger automobile sales, show unsatisfac tory comparisons with the previous month, but virtually all of them are at substantially higher levels than they were last year. A brief summary of the trend in production, employment and distribu tion of goods in this district since early spring is given in the table on the next page. Manufacturing. There has been a further falling off in the demand for products manufactured in this district since the middle of last month, so that the aggregate volume of new sales INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RETAIL TRADE SALES PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PERCENT PERCENT SHOE STORES TOTAL MANUFACTURING APPAREL y \ STORES DEPARTMENT STORES COAL MINING 1928 Page Two 1929 1930 1932 1933 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 Indexes, 1923-25 = 100 Indus trial produc tion Em ploy ment* Pay rolls* March 1933, low April........... May............ June............ July............ August. . . . Sept............. 54 57 62 69 74 71 69 59 59 62 66 69 74 77 33 33 38 43 46 53 54 47 62 60 60 58 61 69 Business Indicators Retail sales Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Index numbers: percentages of the 1923-1925 average taken as 100 * Pennsylvania factories, indexes are not adjusted for seasonal variation; production and retail sales indexes are so adjusted and cover Phila, res. district. and reorders has continued to decline from the peak reached in July. Re ports on unfilled orders thus show that there has been an additional decrease in the total of advance business at fac tories as compared with the previous month and in many instances the vol ume is smaller than a year ago for the first time in several months. There also has been some evidence of cancella tions of orders. The supply of finished goods at local establishments shows numerous in creases during the past month, but it still appears to be smaller than a year ago, considering the manufactur ing industry as a whole. Stocks of raw materials also have increased since August and in most instances are larger than they were last year, reflect ing heavier buying in the rising mar kets during the earlier months and a subsequent contraction in the demand for finished products. Prices quoted by reporting manufacturers have been somewhat more stable between the middle of September and October, even though advances continue to ex ceed declines; compared with a year ago, quotations for most commodities originated in this district are substan tially higher. Collections have de clined in the month, but they compare rather well with the volume of pay ments a year ago. Factory employment and payrolls in this district showed further increases from August to September, although the rate of these gains was not as high as in the previous two months. In Pennsylvania, the number of wage earners rose 4 per cent, indicating an addition of about 33,000 workers over August. The gain in pay rolls was nearly one per cent, while the total number of employe-hours actually worked in September showed a decline of 4 per cent as compared with August, following a steady ex pansion in operating time from a rec ord low level in March. This falling off in working time was probably due in part to the slackening of productive activity, particularly in primary metal Adjusted indexes allow for the usual seasonal change which re sults from an uneven distribution of business between the months of the year. Unadjusted indexes reflect merely the actual change which may or may not be up to the usual sea sonal expectations. Adjusted for seasonal variation Percentage comparison Sept. 1932 Aug. 1933 Sept. 1933 with Sept. 1933 Month ago Industrial production................ 63.3 Manufacturing—total................... Durable or capital goods. . . Consumers’ goods...................... Metal products........................... Textile products......................... Transportation equipment... Food products............................. Tobacco and products.............. Building materials..................... Chemicals and products........... Leather and products............... Paper and printing.................... Electric power output............... Industrial use of electricity. . . Coal mining.................... Anthracite.................................... Bituminous.................................. Employment and wages—Pa. Not adjusted 63.6r 35.4 86.4 30.2r 91.5 44.9r 72. or 75.2r 24.3r 84.7 99.9 79.5r 168.4 116.0 59.7 61.0 51.7 70.7 71.4 50.6 87.8 55.Or 93.9 33.7 68.6 85.2 31.7 96.9 132.8 83.2 194.7r 130.3 62.5 61.0 71.8 68.7p 68.6p 48.3p 84. Ip 53.0‘ 86.3p 39.4 71.9p 80.6 25.8 94.3p 127.3p 81 .4 195.0 141.8 70. Op 74. Op 45.9 Year ago - 2.8 - 3.9 - 4.5 - 4.2 - 3.6 - 8.1 + 16.9 + 4.8 - 5.4 -18.6 - 2.7 - 4.1 - 2.2 + 0.2 + 8.8 +12.0 +21.3 -36.1 + 8.5 + 7.9 +36.4 - 2.7 +75.5 - 5.7 -12.2 - 0.8 + 7.2 + 6.2 +11.3 +27.4 + 2.4 +15.8 +22.2 +17.3 +21.3 -11.2 To date with year ago Sept. 1932 + 5 5* +12 2* + 4.3* +24.1* Payrolls (1932 - 100)... Sept. 1933 + 3.9 64.6 70.3 70.2p + 3.8 65.Or 71.1 70. Ip — 3 9 + 81 +11.0 30.8r 57.3r 53.2 +20.7 92.3 89.6 87.2p -40.1 42.3r 32.4 37.2 - 4.5 75.6r 68.5 75.6p + 2.2 86.9 91.0 93.1 -15.0 26.7r 35.7 27.6 + 2.8 84.2 97.2 93 .4p +20.6 110.2 134.9 139.Op - 5.3 78.7r 81.0 80.7 + 3.0 165.0 185.Or 191.1 + 3.3 123.0 134.2 150.3 60.7 61.9 71 .Op + 5.1 62.0 61.0 75. Op + 3.6 +15.7 52.7 67.5 46.8 + 4 3* +20 8* 63 6 + 0 9* +42 3* +34.9* +1CT8* 43.8 General—12 occupations: Aug. 1933 92.1 73 6p 76 8p 53 Op 53 5p 61 8 59 1 104 Op 109 7p 109.6p 114.3p Building and real estate Contracts awardedt—total......... 35.0 Contracts awardedf—residential. 15.4 Permits for building—17 cities. . 9.7 Mortgages recorded—Phila......... 38.3 Real estate deeds—Phila.... 31.5 19.7 16.3 4.8 - 1.5 - 5.8 -25.0 Writs for Sheriff sales—Phila... . 1315.1 1305.9 906.0 -30.6 -31.1 +12.1 + 6.1 - 9.5 - 0.2 - 6.3 +10.6 - 7.6 - 7.3 -14.3 +15.5 + 2.6 +15.4 - 3.4 - 3.3 +79.4 + 18.8 + 9.4 +22.0 20.0 17.3 6.4 10.9 50.2 * * Distribution Retail trade—sales...................... Retail trade—stocks............... Wholesale trade—sales................. Wholesale trade—stocks............ Life insurance sales........................ New passenger auto, registrations Freight car loadings—total......... Mdse. & misc. (64.9% of total). Coal (23.5% of total)........... -43.7 + 5.8 -50.5 59.5 61.3 68.7p 61 .1 62.7 59.1 56.4 71.9 65. Ip 61.9 59.9 59.8p 105.6 109.0 102.1 46.1 74.8 82.7 49.0 63.0 58.2 52.3 61.7 57.2 50.5 71.9 61.6 -43.3 -36.4 —43 9 * * Business liquidations Number.............................. Amount of liabilities............... 19.6 16.3 5.8 8.6 45.2 61.1 60.6 61.1 + 0.8 0.0 - 8.8 + 45 -10.6 + 11.0 + 1.1 - 3.7 + 8.9 53.4 63.8 64.0 63.9 84.5 44.3 53.3 57.8 52.5 48.5 56.3 67.6 60.2 91.6 82.3 65.0 63.5 69.0 61,9p 65.5 74. Op 61.7p 81.7 79.4 64.6 63.5 64.1 42.3 + 1.9* + 8 4* -10* + 0 2* + 2.7* 4-8 1* + 0.3* + 2 8* + 0.6* + 8.0* 51.5 58.0 24 0 62.8 23.7 61.4 69 5 Prices—United States 58.0 55.3 - 7.1 — 1 2* - 2 2* +11 !o* Wholesale (1926 = 100)............. Farm products.......................... Foods.................................... Other commodities.................... Retail food (1913 = 100)........... Philadelphia............................ Scranton....................................... 18.9 15.2 4.3 49 5 - 0.3 1525.5 1253.7 1051.0 -69.7* -79 V -51.0* 210 !o 139 8 Payment of accounts Check payments............................. Rate of collections (actual): Retail trade................................. Wholesale trade........................ 33.6 14.3 8.7 29.5 29.0 70.8 57.0 76.1 107 .2 110.8 105.8 113.6 114.3 74 1 106 9 Per cent change from (000,000’s omitted in dollar figures) Sept. 1932 June 1933 Julv 1933 Aug. 1933 Sept. 1933 $ 57 144 118 56.4% $ 40 142 119 62.7% $ 34 146 126 64.2% $ 32 148 123 63.9% $596 488 920 12.3 $514 485 898 11.9 *504 512 921 13.0 $502 525 928 12.4 Month ago Year ago $ 29 155 126 63.4% - 9.4 + 4.7 + 2.4 - 0.8 -49.1 + 7.6 + 6.8 +12.4 $498 533 937 14.3 - 0.8 + 1.5 + 1.0 +15.3 -16.4 + 9.2 + 1.8 +16.3 Banking and credit Federal Reserve Bank Bills discounted.......................... Other bills and securities......... Member bank reserves............. Ratio........... (........................... Reporting member banks Loans to customers.................... Other loans and investments.. Deposits........................................ Bankers’ acceptances outstand. . * Computed from data unadjusted for seasonal variation. t 3-month moving daily average. p—Preliminary, r—Revised. Page Three TEXTILE FIBERS EMPLOYMENT PAYROLLS AND WORKING TIME PENNSYLVANIA UNITED STATES MILLIONS^ OF LBS. PERCENT DOLLARS PER. LB. .20 300 COTTON EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYE HOURS WOOL PAYROLLS^ 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 Sources: Department of Commerce, Fairchild News Service, Journal of Commerce, Silk Association of America industries, stone, clay and glass, and in leather products. As shown by the accompanying chart, the spread be tween employment on the one hand and payrolls and working hours on the other has widened since August, after becoming narrower for a few months ending in July. In normal times the levels of employment, pay rolls and working time move rather closely together with a tendency for payrolls and employe-hours to move at a somewhat higher rate than does em ployment if business conditions are satisfactory. Considering the employment situa tion as a whole, it appears that be tween March and September there was a gain of approximately 185,000 wage earners in Pennsylvania factories. The largest increase—115,000 workers— occurred in the third quarter, reflect ing largely the influence of the com pliance with the industry or blanket codes. The estimated total number of factory wage earners on the roll in Pennsylvania about the middle of Sep tember was in the neighborhood of 795,000, or the highest for any month since early 1931. Incomplete reports for October in dicate a decrease in employment but practically no change in payrolls. Operating time appears to have de creased further, indicating a contrac tion in productive activity for two successive fall months. Output of manufactures in this dis trict continued to decline, in spite of the fact that usually there is a decided increase in the three-month period, August to October; it must be remem bered, however, that there was a sharp increase in production from a record low point in March to July, a period which is usually marked by seasonal Page Four recessions. This bank’s index of fac tory production declined to 69 per cent of the 1923-25 average as com pared with 71 in August and 74 in July, which was the highest point since 1931, after allowance is made for the number of working days and the usual seasonal variation. Com pared with a year ago, the September index of production was almost 8 per cent higher, owing primarily to larger gains that occurred during the earlier months in the output of durable or capital goods, since the production of merchandise which is sold primarily to the ultimate consumers was at a lower level in September this year than last. With the exception of transporta tion equipment and foodstuff indus tries, all manufacturing groups failed to measure up to the usual seasonal changes in the output of their prod ucts. Most of them, however, con tinued at appreciably higher levels than last year in spite of the fact that productive activity in several indus tries has been hampered considerably by strikes and lockouts. The largest decline in September among the individual industries oc curred in such important lines as iron and steel, silk, woolen and worsted goods, cement, brick and motor ve hicles. Among the most pronounced increases were those in the groups comprising electrical apparatus, auto mobile parts and bodies, ship and boat building, hosiery, sugar refining, and paints and varnishes. Some of these increases were of seasonal character, while others resulted from gradual ad justments of labor difficulties. Production of electric power in creased from August to September by slightly more than the usual seasonal quantity, the seasonally adjusted index rising from 194.7 to 195 per cent of the 1923-25 average; this was nearly 16 per cent higher than a year ago. Total sales of electricity rose about 6 per cent in the month and were 18 per cent higher than in September 1932. Industrial consumption of elec trical energy, which constitutes by far the largest part of total sales, in creased about 12 per cent, when com puted on the basis of working days; this gain was rather unusual and shows an improvement over August by nearly 9 per cent, when the nor mal seasonal change is taken into con sideration. Compared with a year ago local industries purchased about 22 per cent more power in September this year. Coal. Owing to unseasonable weather, demand for anthracite has slackened considerably since the middle of last month. Output of collieries showed a substantial gain in September and was the largest for that month since 1930. In the first fortnight of October there was some further gain in the weekly production of mines. The trend of hard coal shipments continued sharply upward during September, when daily loadings were the largest in more than a year. Wholesale prices of anthracite rose nearly 4 per cent between August and September, but were still about 6 per cent lower than those of a year ago. Demand for Pennsylvania bitumi nous coal has slackened since the early part of last month, owing chiefly to the fact that many industrial consum ers bought unusually large supplies in the latter part of September in antici pation of higher prices. Output of collieries decreased sharply in Sep tember, contrary to seasonal expecta- FREIGHT CAR LOADINGS STOCKS OF MERCHANDISE ALLEGHENY DISTRICT PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PERCENT 192 3-2SAVC=IOO WHOLESALE ^■•r.***A* % A /•» kr \y v 'x RETAILX^ x.-/ ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VAR It TION 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 Source: American Railway Association tion, and reflected in part labor disturbances which continued fairly widespread during the month. In early October colliery output declined further. Although shipments of soft coal showed some decrease from Au gust to September, they exceeded those of a year ago by nearly 14 per cent. Wholesale prices of bituminous coal in the country increased about one per cent in September and were 4 per cent higher than a year ago. Building and real estate. Building construction activity in Pennsylvania showed a further substantial increase from August to September, while the construction of streets and highways as well as general contracting work declined sharply. Reports from some 1300 contractors showed gains in Sep tember of about 2 per cent in em ployment and nearly 8 per cent in payrolls for the industry as a whole; working time increased by more than 4 per cent in this period. Aggregate awards of building con tracts declined in September, reflect ing decreases in the value of contracts let for residences and commercial buildings, which more than offset sub stantial gains in the awards for public works, utilities and factory buildings. In October the total of contract awards showed a gain, owing to increased ex penditures for public works and high way construction, which included awards of $1,140,080 approved by the Federal Government, for sixteen high way projects involving about twentyseven miles of road building in Penn sylvania. The average of total awards for the three months from July through September showed a small de cline, following an upward trend since early spring and was about 44 per cent lower than last year. Estimated cost of proposed building under permits issued in 17 cities of this district declined sharply in Sep tember and with the exception of last March was the smallest of any month in recent years. The total value of contemplated construction, as meas ured by permits issued in September, was only one-half as large as that of a year ago and in the nine months since January 1 showed a decline of 43 per cent from the like period of 1932. Agriculture. Owing to more favor able weather, seasonal farming opera tions have progressed rapidly since the middle of September. Estimated yields of corn, wheat, hay and white potatoes have been revised upward since September, indicating that con siderable portions of these crops re covered from the effects of damaging storms in late August. The Pennsyl vania tobacco crop, on the other hand, bears out earlier estimates and will be one of the smallest in several years. As compared with last year’s harvest, yields of corn, wheat and hay are ex pected to be somewhat larger, while those of oats and white potatoes will probably show some decrease. As indicated by condition on October 1, production of orchard fruits will be unusually small in 1933 and consider ably below the average of the fiveyear period from 1926-1930. The condition of dairy cattle as well as other livestock generally continues satisfactory. Swine slaughterings are about equal to those of a year earlier and new hogs are said to be in good market condition. Sales of representative department, apparel, shoe and credit stores in this district during Septem ber showed an additional gain of al Distribution. most 28 per cent as compared with the usual normal increase of 13 per cent between August and September; there was thus considerable improve ment in retail trade beyond the cus tomary change at this time. All re porting lines shared in this better ment. Our September index number of dollar sales, which allows for the number of trading days and for sea sonal change, rose to 69 per cent of the 1923-25 average, which was the highest since 1931, with one excep tion; it continued 16 per cent higher than a year ago, reflecting in part the influence of higher prices. Sales in October continued fairly active, further gains being noticeable particu larly since the second week of that month. Prices have been increasing rather consistently. The supply of merchandise at retail establishments was 16 per cent larger at the end of September than a month before; this was an increase of 6 per cent in excess of the usual gain which occurs from August to September. The largest actual increases in stocks occurred in Philadelphia department and women’s apparel stores and in men’s apparel stores outside Philadel phia. In comparison with a year ago, inventories of reporting stores were 3 per cent larger, Philadelphia depart ment and women’s apparel stores re porting the greatest increases. The rate of stock turnover was 4 per cent larger this year than last. The volume of wholesale trade was 10 per cent larger in September than August, but this increase was only about one-half of the estimated sea sonal gain for this period. This lack of improvement was due largely to smaller than usual increases in the sale of dry goods, electrical supplies, and Page Five groceries. Compared with a year ago, smaller in the first nine months this posits not being sufficient to offset the however, the total value of sales in year than last. rise in the reserves of member banks. the eight wholesale lines was 16 per The increase in the combined note and cent greater, reflecting it; a large meas Banking conditions. During the past deposit liabilities was accompanied by ure higher prices. In the first nine month borrowings from the reserve only a small rise in the sum of gold months of this year, sales also were bank have been reduced a little and and other cash held by the bank, so larger by S per cent than in the same banks have added substantially to their that the ratio decreased from 62.9 to period last year, owing solely to in reserves. Deposits at reporting mem 62.5 per cent. creased business in dry goods, elec ber institutions increased materially; Since the end of April loans to cus loans to customers declined, but nearly tomers at the reporting member banks trical supplies, groceries and paper. Stocks of goods at wholesale estab all of this was in those that were made have declined 36 millions, but 35 mil lishments showed a further gain of 3 on the security of stocks and bonds. lions of this was in loans on the se In the four weeks ending on Octo curity of stocks and bonds; other loans per cent, but this change upward was not quite as large as is to be expected ber 18, commercial and financial to customers have not varied more at this time. The greatest increases transactions with other reserve dis than 5 millions in this space of time. in inventories appear to have taken tricts resulted in a balance of over 19 In the past month there has been only place in drugs and dry goods. The millions in favor of this district; this a slight decline in the latter type, rate of stock turnover has been nearly exceptional gain appears to have been while those with security collateral 18 per cent higher this year than in due largely to the receipt of funds to decreased 7 millions. Despite the re be held on deposit for other banks. payment of loans, net demand deposits the first nine months last year. Collections of retail accounts were Funds obtained in this manner, aug at these banks increased 22 millions, less rapid in September than August, mented by a decline of 2 millions in owing largely to an inflow of funds which is somewhat contrary to the special deposits at the reserve bank, which added 20 millions to the bal usual experience; nevertheless, the were partly absorbed by a 6 million ances due to banks. Government de September ratio of payments to re excess of local Treasury receipts over posits at these institutions declined 9 ceivables outstanding was 9 per cent disbursements in this district; the re millions, but it is probable that a part higher than a year ago. Account set ceipts included 11 millions withdrawn of this sum found its way back into tlements at wholesale establishments from depositary banks. And, too, a the banks as the Treasury paid interest were also less favorable in September substantial demand for currency prior charges and other federal expendi than August, but they exceeded the to Columbus Day was only partly off tures. Holdings of United States se rate of last year’s collections by 11 set by the amount returned subse curities were increased by 11 millions, quently, so that for the period as a and the banks added 8 millions to per cent. Shipments of commodities by rail whole currency payments to banks ex their reserve balances at the reserve road frdight declined further, follow ceeded receipts from them by nearly bank, but deposits held with other ing a steady increase between March 2 millions. After these demands had banks did not change. and July. The current index numb“r' been met, a sufficient balance of avail In keeping with the usual tendency, of total shipments, however, is still able funds remained to enable the the volume of outstanding acceptances considerably higher than in the earlier banks to reduce borrowings from the of banks in this district rose from months as well as last year. The larg reserve bank by almost 3 millions and $12,400,000 to $14,300,000 during Sep est actual and relative declines oc to add 11 millions to their reserve bal tember ; this was the largest amount curred in the transportation of coal, ances at this bank. since April 1932 and compared with The bill and security holdings of and merchandise and miscellaneous $12,300,000 a year ago. The national commodities; these two classifications this bank increased 5 millions during total also expanded in the month from constitute about 85 per cent of all the four weeks. The decline of 3 mil 694 to 715 millions, most of this rise freight car loadings in this section. lions in bills discounted for banks was being in bills covering import and ex A rather sharp drop in deliveries of more than balanced by an increase of port transactions. goods by motor truck during Septem 8 millions in United States securities, Under date of October 15 the ber reflected a considerable interrup representing the bank’s participation Treasury offered bonds maturing in in purchases of such securities by the tion in shipments incident to the strike system. There was little change in 1945, with interest at 4% per cent for of motor drivers. the first year and 3>4 per cent for the Sales of new passenger automobiles, the amount of federal reserve notes in circulation, but deposits increased, de balance of the term. Subscriptions as measured by registrations in this were receivable on the basis of a par district, have continued at an excep creases in government and special de tionally high rate, reaching in Sep tember the largest number of units sold since the end of 1931, when al RESERVE BANK CREDIT AND THE FACTORS WHICH AFFECT IT lowance is made for the usual sea Philadelphia Federal Reserve District September 21 to October 18, inclusive sonal change; compared with a year (In millions of dollars) ago September sales were 79 per cent Uses of funds Sources of funds larger, and for the year to date total Currency demand.......................................... + 1.7 Reserve bank credit extended in this dis Member bank reserve deposits................. +10.9 sales were 11 per cent larger than in trict............................................................. ...... ~ 3.2 Special and “Other” deposits at reserve Commercial and financial transactions the first nine months of last year. bank.............................................................. — 1.9 (chiefly interdistrict)..................................... +19.4 Unexpended capital funds of reserve bank —0.4 Treasury operations.......................................... — 5.9 Life insurance sales were smaller in Total......................................................... +10.3 September than August by a consider Total............................................................. +10.3 ably larger margin than usual; they Note: This table gives, in balance sheet form, a summary of the banking changes which have had an were also 3 per cent below the sales influence on the amount of reserve bank credit in use in the district. of a year ago and were 11 per cent Page Six * for par exchange for Fourth Lib erty Loan bonds, some of which have been called for payment next April, or at 1013^2 if payment was to be made in cash or by credit at subscribing banks. Exchange sub scriptions, all of which are being accepted, had not been terminated at the date of writ ing ; other local subscriptions to taled 115 millions, of which 29 mil lions was allotted. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (In millions of dollars) Changes in— Oct. 18, 1933 Four weeks One year -$ 2.7 0 -823.3 - 2.6 + 7.7 0 + 24.1 - 0.8 Factory Employment and Payrolls in Pennsylvania Employment* Bills discounted. . . $ 25.6 Bills bought............ 0.7 United States securities................. 163.3 Other securities. . . 0.5 Total bills and securities........ Federal reserve note circulation........... Federal reserve bank note circulation.................... Member bank reserve deposits.. . Special deposits— member and nonmember banks. . Government deposits.................... Foreign bank deposits.................... Gold reserves and other cash........... Ratio........................ 8190.1 +$ 5.0 - 0.3 - + 2.1 + 9.2 All manufacturing.. 135.9 + 10.9 + 14.8 10.7 - 1.9 + 10.7 1.6 - 4.0 + 0.2 1.4 - 0.2 + 0.6 242.2 + 62,5% - 1.4 + 32.8 0.4% + 4.7% LOANS AND INVESTMENTS - 1933 REPORTING MEMBER BANKS Per cent change com pared. with Sept. 1932 Employehours f Payrolls* PHILA. FED. RES DISTRICT MILLIONS LOANS TO CUSTOMERS Iron & steel & their products................ Non-ferrous inetal products................ Transportation equipment............. Textiles and clothing Textiles.................. Clothing................ Fooa products........... Stone, clay and glass products.............. Lumber products........... Chemical and allied products.............. Leather and its prod ucts ...................... Paper ana printing.... Printing................... Others: Cigars and tobacco Rubber tires and goods................... Musical instru ments................... Aug. 1933 Sept. 1933 index Per cent change com pared with 1.6 9.2 Sept. 1933 index -$ 2 .6 237.3 (Indexes of factory em ployment and payrolls are expressed in per centages of the 1923-25 average which is taken as 100) Sept. 1932 Aug. 1933 Per cent change Sept, com pared with Aug. 76.8 +20.8 + 4.3 53.5 +42 62.6 +31.0 + 3.0 43.2 +85 - 7.3 - 9.4 84.8 +25.3 + 6.1 +36 + 5.4 + 7.0 1.2 + 2.7 56.3p +17.0 + 12.5 98.2 +15.8 108.0 + 2.2 104.2 +14.5 100.2 66.9 + 3.1 33.7p + 5.8 78.5 + 8.3 76.9 - 2.2 85.9 + 9.3 82.3 + 0.9 +27 +29 +23 +35 +16 - + 7.5 + 8.8 + 0.8 + 2.1 + 1.5 + 8.9 -14.9 +10.7 75.9 56.8 +36.5 0.0 37.9 +40.9 +23.2 36.7 +64, +36, - 2.6 +24.4 - 8.7 +27.5 88.9 +31.1 + 5.7 70.5 +41 + 3.8 - 4.2 96.2 90.2 85.3 +27.9 + 1.1 82.7 +11.6 + 4.6 72.4 + 0.7 + 4.5 73.3 +45 + 9 + 2.6 61.8 2.7 - 6.2 43.7 - 8.4 + 7.7 - 3.2 +10.6 + 0.5 +0 - 0 - 2.7 - 5.2 100.1 +51 .9 + 1.9 82.3 +82 - 3.4 -10.0 40.5 +31.1 + 7.7 37.0 +54 + 9.5 + 7.4 * Figures from 1,738 plants, t Figures from 1,252 plants, p—Preliminary, General Indexes of Employment and Payrolls in Pennsylvania Employment * Occupation (1932=100) OPEN MARKET LOANS AND INVESTMENTS * NEW ISSUES JAN FEB MAR or ► APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC Manufacturing Employ ment Allentown. . . Altoona......... Harrisburg. . Johnstown... Lancaster. . . Philadelphia. Reading........ Scranton.... Trenton......... Wilkes-Barre Williamsport. Wilmington.. York.............. Wage payments + 9.9 +14.8 +13.1 +28.5 +36.0 +27.7 +14.5 +36.5 +43.8 +10.2 +90.4 +34.2 +25.4 + 31.1 + 79.9 + 33.4 + 114.2 + 48.5 + 33.8 + 49.2 + 38.3 + 68.8 + 13.9 +104.2 + 34.5 + 55.3 Per cent change compared with Sept. 1932 Aug. 1933 Sept. 1933 index Per cent change compared with Sept. 1932 Aug. 1933 US. SECURITIES Percentage change—September 1933 from September 1932 City areas* Sept. 1933 index Payrolls Building permits (value) Debits - 59.6 - 70.6 + 88.4 - 71.4 + 125.0 - 62.1 - 75.8 - 61.4 — 5.4 + 62.4 - 26.7 + 59.2 - 35.1 - 1.7 - 2.8 +16.6 - 7.6 - 9.8 - 1.8 -15.4 -12.8 - 2.9 -12.8 -19.0 + 9.9 +ii.i Retail trade sales + 7.4 +48.0 + 8.5 +15.9 + 15.8 +13.2 +22.9 +11.1 +19.4 +19.3 General index number.. 109.7 + 12.2 + 5.5 114.3 +24.1 + 4.3 Manufacturing...................... Anthracite mining................. Bituminous coal mining... . Building and construction. . Quarrying and non-metallic mining................ Crude petroleum producing Public utilities........................ Retail trade................. Wholesale trade..................... Hotels............................ . Laundries................................ Dyeing and cleaning............. 119.3 90.9 113.6 96.2 +20.8 + 1 .6 +17.2 -12.9 + 4.3 131.4 +19.0 113.1 + 3.7 123.0 + 1.8 76.6 +42.3 +29.1 +40.9 -24.5 + 0.9 +30.2 + 5.5 + 7.7 118.8 146.1 90.3 105.0 100.2 94.6 94.9 114.0 +17.7 +46.1 - 8.5 +16.5 + 2.6 - 1 .9 - 1.1 +12.5 - 0.2 +13.5 + 0.9 +10.8 + 2.3 + 0.4 + 0.1 +13.4 +15.2 +13.0 -12.5 +18.7 - 3.0 -10.9 - 1.4 +12.4 -13.1 + 5.7 - 1.4 + 11.7 + 0.4 + 3.0 + 5.0 +44.3 121.0 112.4 81.5 101.1 91.2 81.2 89.5 110.8 INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS PENNSYLVANIA PERCENT -1? MANUFACTURING AND NON-MAHUf.CTURING INDUSTRIES AND + 5.5 September 1933 from August 1933 Allentown......... Altoona............ Harrisburg. . . Johnstown.... Lancaster......... Philadelphia. . , Reading............ Scranton........... Trenton............. Wilkes-Barre. . Williamsport.. Wilmington.... Y ork................... - 3.4 + 0.7 + 3.4 - 1.8 + 2.8 + 7.0 +37.3 +10.3 + 7.8 - 4.0 +13.5 + 3.8 + 1.6 _ — + — + + + + + — + + + 10.0 10.1 1.0 23.5 4.0 8.0 35.6 11.7 5.4 10.7 8.6 4.9 5.1 - 68 - 53 +144 - 49 +343 - 42 - 27 + 24 + 88 - 32 - 7 - 21 - 70 5 9 1 7 3 6 6 7 9 2 5 7 2 + 1.9 + 3.0 + 2.9 +23.3 +11.4 + 0.5 +12.4 - 3.7 - 1.3 - 4.4 + 5.8 + 8.6 + 3.7 * Area not restricted to the corporate limits of cities given here. +24.3 +11.6 +35.5 + 6.8 +31.1 +26.9 +49.4 +40.1 +29.4 +23.8 EMPLOYMENT PAYROLLS + 7.5 1932 193 3 19 3 4 Page Seven Index numbers of individual lines of trade and manufacture OUTPUT OF MANUFACTURES PERCENT PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ADJUSTED TO* SEASONAL VARIATION IMJ-EiRfO.-lOO STEEL Philadelphia Federal Reserve District 75 Index numbers: percentages of the 1923-1925 average taken as 100 Adjusted indexes allow for the usual seasonal change which re sults from an uneven distribution of business between the months of the year. Unadjusted indexes reflect merely the actual change which may or may not be up to the usual sea sonal expectations. Adjusted for seasonal variation A J Not adjusted LOCOMOTIVES AND CARS Percentage comparison Sept. 1933 with Aug. 1933 Sept. 1933 Year ago To date with year ago Aug. 1933 - 8.8 - 8.0 - 7.9 - 0.3 -10.6 -16.4 Sept. 1932 53.4 52.7 41.1 78.5 58.8 45.8 48.5 47.2 42.4 58.2 48.9 49.7 63.8 56.0 55.9 93.6 63.6 72.5 Month ago Sept. 1932 56.3 65.5 51.7 61.Ip 46.0 54.0 84.7 108.8 57.9 59.0 60.9 69.7 Sept. 1933 SILK A Retail trade Sales Total of all stores...................... Department............................. Men’s apparel......................... Women’s apparel................... Shoe........................................... Credit........................................ 59.5 58.9 48.1 91.1 63.2 48.2 61.3 61.7 51.5 86.3 59.6 52.3 68.7p 66. Ip 54. Ip 99.6 81 .0 61.7 +12.1 + 7.1 + 5.0 +15.4 +35.9 +18.0 +15.5 +12.2 + 12.5 + 9.3 +28.2 +28.0 61.1 53.8 51.5 87.2 60.6 71.1 59.1 62.7 55.6 58.7p 44.8 49.6 95.8 100.9 59.7 56.2 62.1 68.3 + 6.1 + 5.6 +10.7 + 5.3 - 5.9 + 10.0 + 2.6 + 9.1 - 3.7 + 15.7 - 7.3 - 3.9 Stocks of goods Rate of stock turnover 61.9p 59.2p 46.3p 85.9 75.3 58.6 75 v \ A\ A \ V V r~ —v 50 WOOLENS AND WORSTEDS 25. l\ 1 HOSIERY 2.65 + 3.9* 2.55 50 Wholesale trade Sales Total of all lines......................... Boots and shoes..................... Drugs......................................... Dry goods................................ Electrical supplies................. Groceries................................... Hardware................................. Jewelry...................................... Paper......................................... CEMENT 56.4 38.5 80.9 31 .8 49,7 77.2 34.2 26.3 52.3 71.9 54.2 77.0 41.9 76.8 96.5 41.1 38.6 67.5 65.1 p 35.3p 80.4 36.6 56.8p 91.4 41.3 40.0 61.4p - 9.5 -34.9 + 4.4 -12.6 -26.0 - 5.3 + 0.5 + 3.6 - 9.0 +15.4 - 8.3 - 0.6 + 15.1 + 14.3 +18.4 +20.8 +52.1 +17.4 + 4.5 - 2.6 -10.8 + 2.4 +27.4 + 6.2 -16.7 -22.8 + 3.9 64.0 55.4 83.3 42.3 59.6 85.7 35.9 32.6 53.3 67.6 74. Op 61.2 50.8p 71 .6 82.8 39.0 48.7 63.0 68.Ip 94.6 101.5 36.6 43.4 34.0 49.6 64.0 62.6p 50 25 LUMBER PRODUCTS 75 Stocks of goods 61.9 102.8 32.1 73.9 76.9 67.4 50.6 57.9 59.9 98.7 34.6 59.3 77.3 63.3 46.5r 57.2 59.8p 109.1 38.2 56.5p 73.8 62.7 44.8 57.7p - 0.2 +10.5 + 10.4 - 4.7 - 4.5 - 0.9 - 3.7 + 0.9 63.9 60.2 105.9 101.7 35.3 37.0 79.1 63.5 76.9 71.9 62.7 66.1 55.2 51,6r 58.3 59.1 - 3.4 + 6.1 +19.0 -23.5 - 4.0 - 7.0 -11.5 - 0.3 Rate of stock turnover 61.7p 112.4 42.0 60.5p 73.8 61.4 48.8 58.9p -25 PAPER AND WOOD PULP 100 3.74 +17.6* 3.18 25 SHOES Output of manufactures Pig iron.............................................. Steel.................................................... Iron castings.................................... Steel castings................................... Electrical apparatus...................... Motor vehicles................................. Automobile parts and bodies. . . . Locomotives and cars.................... Shipbuilding..................................... Silk manufactures.......................... Woolen and worsteds.................... Cotton products.............................. Carpets and rugs............................ Hosiery.............................................. Underwear........................................ Cement.............................................. Brick.................................................. Lumber and products................. 8.9 25.3r 24.9 19.7 44.5r 19.5 22.0 14.9r 156.5 121.6 53.3 41.6 39.6 120.8 134.1 42.3 23.7r 13.9r 29.7 58.1 42.2 35.0 56.5 17.5 41.4 13.3 79.1 122.6p 69.9 51.9 53.9 92.9 163.0 39.8 46.0 19.0 26.6 51.5 41.2 34.0 63.2 13.4 46.9 13.9 104.7 98.2p 59.3 47.1 52.9 111.2 146.6 26.1 37.0 19.6 Slaughtering, meat packing. . . . Sugar refining................................ Canning and preserving............. Cigars............................................... Paper and wood pulp.................. Printing and publishing............. Shoes................................................ Leather, goat and kid................. Explosives....................................... Paints and varnishes................... Petroleum products..................... Coke, by-product......................... 102.5 82.8 29.2 74.0 49.7i 85.7i 129.6 71.6 55.7 54.1 123.8 49.6 108.3 55.8 30.2 84.6 69.1 86.0 137.2 128.6 71.4 59.0 131.5 88.9 103.9 64.5 31.2J 79.6 65.0 84.7 137.1 117.91 73.0 68.9 119.41 87.0 -10.4 -11.4 - 2.4 - 2.9 +11.9 -23.4 +13.3 + 4.5 +32.4 -19.9 -15.2 - 9.2 - 1.9 + 19.7 -10.1 -34.4 -19.6 + 3.2 + 8.1* - 4.1 +15.6 + 3.3 - 5.9 - 5.9 - 1.5 - 0.1 - 8.3 + 2.2 +16.8 - 9.2 - 2.1 +198.9 +103.6 +65.5 +72.6 +42.0 -31.3 + 113.2 - 6.7 -33.1 -19.2 +11.3 + 13.2 +33.6 - 7.9 + 9.3 -38.3 +56.1 +41.0 + 3.0* + 1.4 -22.1 + 6.8 + 7.6 +30.8 - 1.2 + 5.8 +64.7 +31.1 +27.4 - 3.6 +75.4 +36.5 +27.8 + 4.7 + 9.9 - 6.3 -54.9 -11.0 -31.4 -48.0 +22.6 +35.6 + 12.8 - 7.8 + 11.7 +40.9 -29.5 + 13.6 -15.7 - 0.9* + 4.1 - 9.0 - 1.5 + 2.8 + 3.1 - 6.4 +23.8 +17.1 + 9.9 - 0.6 + 0.6 +23.0 8.4 24. Ir 25.1 17.9 48.9r 16.8 20.9 14.3r 148.7 121.6 58.9 39.4 38.4 120.8 134.1 49.5 23.9r 14.6r 85.5r 102.5 71.2 41.5 85.8 49.7i 84.8i 147.7 74.5 55.7 51.4 125.0 47.6 26.1 59.3 40.9 33.6 62.7 14.7 38.9 13.4 78.3 118.9p 71.7 46.9 51.7 80.8 151.6 49.8 47.8 20.7 81.5 90.4 48.0 37.6 90.5 69.1 83.4 146.8 123.5 71.4 60.2 132.0 87.1 25.0 48.9 41.6 30.9 69.5 11.5 44.6 13.3 99.5 98.2p 65.2 44.7 51.3 111.2 146.6 30.5 37.4 20.6 88.1 103.3 55.5 46.3p 92.3 65.0 83.9 156.3 122.6p 73.0 65.5 120.5p 83.5 A 125 A / ^ / Va r \ 100 50 LEATHER - GOAT AND KID 150 \r\Av *------------------ 1 /V 50 PETROLEUM REFINING 175 i$0 \/~\J 75 CIGARS • 50 * Computed from data unadjusted for seasonal variation. Page Eight p—Preliminary. r—Revised. 1930 1931 1932 1933
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