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THE BUSINESS REVIEW
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
OF PHILADELPHIA
• -St u*.*.-
MAT, 1948
Know when to Spend and when to Spare
And You need not be Busy; You’ll never be Bare.
Thomas Fuller, L608-1661
It MAY be that this is the time for a wholehearted return to the nearly-forgotten
Philosophy of Thrift by which our grandfathers lived. Too many of us have taken the
position that unless consumers are clamoring for more goods than are available—
unless we have a sellers’ market—business is “bad.” Actually, this is the time when
consumer spending should be restrained—when saving is, indeed, a virtue. Less
spending by consumers might mean that business would be less “good” now, but it
would mean a better chance for business to be really good in the longer run.
The following articles present the facts on consumer spending and saving. They
indicate that a return to a buyers’ market is not imminent and that in recent months
consumers have been spending more and saving less. The Security Loan Drive
affords an opportunity to increase saving and make a real contribution to the con
trol of inflation.
SPENDING FOR CONSUMPTION
For six successive years, through war and peace,
merchants have been catering to the apparently
insatiable demands of the public. On several
occasions, sales faltered momentarily only to be
followed by another and more vigorous wave of
buying. It has been too good to be true; surely
it must come to an end some day. But when?
When prices climbed so briskly a year or more
ago there was much talk about a buyers’ strike.
People were getting fed-up, it was said, with over
priced merchandise of all-too-frequent inferior
quality. But goods kept getting better in quality,
gradually more plentiful, and prices kept going up.
And people kept on buying. The buyers’ strike
never came. People needed and wanted too many
things, and they had the money or the credit to
buy them.
Retail trade, of course, had its wartime pains
but they were “growing pains.” The goods were
not coming through—that is, not the same kind
of goods as in peacetime. But the dollar volume
went up year by year. When people could not
buy durables like cars and refrigerators they spent
their money on nondurables like food and drink
or furs and finery.
When the war ended, people had about $100
billion more liquid assets than when the war
started. That in itself was a powerful stimulant
to retail trade. Spending power was augmented
by several rounds of wage increases and rising
employment. Rising prices failed to bring forth
enough consumer goods, especially the durables.
Businessmen had to restore depleted inventories;
they had to expand and renovate productive
facilities, which diverted durable goods from con
sumers markets. Heavy exports also delayed
satisfaction of the home market. High levels of
business activity reinforced spending power,
which exerted ever-rising pressure on prices.
Almost the full army of industrial workers—58
million strong—is engaged in a gigantic effort to
produce the goods and services in urgent demand.
In the process, consumer spending power is being
created faster than consumer goods and services.
Traveling at high speed with a wide-open throttle
is sure to set up stresses and strains in the econ
omic machine. Are any of these apparent in con
sumer markets and, if so, are they alarming?
Page 48
An Appraisal of the Current Retail Market
Although current incomes are high, an unusual
ly large portion is being spent for available goods.
Personal savings, which were running well ahead
of their normal relationship to income throughout
the war period, were consistently below “normal”
last year. The actual amount of personal savings
declined from $29 billion in 1945 to $15 billion in
1946 and $11 billion in 1947. Despite smaller
savings, a net addition to liquid asset holdings of
individuals occurred last year.
There has also been a shift in the income pat
tern since the close of the war that indicates some
squeeze on lower income groups. The rise in
wage and salary income lagged during the past
two years. In 1945, wages and salaries accounted
for 68 per cent of total personal income, but
declined to 62 per cent in 1947. The largest in
creases were in business and professional in
comes. Farm proprietors’ incomes and interest
payments and dividend disbursements also rose
substantially. Comparatively, the largest group
of income recipients are not getting as large a
slice of the pie today as they were two years ago
or even in pre-war 1941, when wages and salaries
were 65 per cent of total income.
A larger and larger proportion of income has
been absorbed by the rising cost of the most es
sential consumer goods—foods. A recent study
by the U. S. Department of Commerce shows that
food expenditures have increased from 22 per cent
of disposable income in 1941 to 29 per cent in
1947. While a small part of this increased ex
penditure represents greater per capita consump
tion, the bulk of the increase results from higher
prices. The fact that per capita consumption
declined somewhat between 1946 and 1947 may or
may not be significant. In any event, the increas
ed expenditure for food during the recent past
undoubtedly affected spending for other types
of goods.
Decline in jewelry sales was one of the first in
dications that demand may be weakening, but
probably more significant among recent develop
ments has been an easing in the demand for tex
tile, leather, and rubber products. Prices of auto
mobile tires have been reduced substantially, and
shoe manufacturers are concerned about sales
prospects, particularly for higher-priced lines.
With the exception of rayon, the supply situation
in textiles is less stringent than heretofore. Unit
sales of all types of women’s apparel are down.
CHART H
DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS
THIRD
Consumers have become increasingly price and
quality conscious. Preference for inexpensive
merchandise of reasonable quality has replaced
the wartime habit of buying anything at any
price. Increased business in bargain basements
clearly shows this trend.
SALES
Rising credit activity is another possible in
dication of a tighter market. But to some extent
this credit expansion simply reflects credit pro
motion activity on the part of retailers and in
creased sales of goods normally sold on the in
stalment plan.
While there are more frequent signs of weak
ness in the consumer market, they are scattered
and not severe. It is particularly noteworthy that
while dollar volume of retail sales has been in
creasing steadily since the end of the war, physi
cal volume today probably is only slightly higher
than it was in mid-1946. (Chart I). Dollar volume
of sales adjusted for seasonality declined in the
early months of this year, but it is too early to
ascertain the significance of this development.
CHART I
RETAIL SALES
UNITED STATES
INDEX
■NON-DURABLE'
GOODS STORES
DURABLE GOODS
STORES ,
SALES ADJUSTED FOR PRICE CHANGES
TOTAL
I
; :t; ,,
1945
1946
1947
FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT
INDEX
{/-STOCKS
1945
1946
1947
1946
Trends at Department Stores in the
Third District
A review of department store activity reveals
the ever-changing character of demand for dif
ferent types of goods. During the post-war
period, department store activity has been more
sensitive to changes in consumer habits and re
actions than total retail sales. Two important
items in total trade, which are not of great sig
nificance in department store activity, are foods
and durable goods, especially automobiles. Strong
consumer demand for both these items has tended
to smooth out the trend of total retail sales.
Many types of merchandise sold at department
stores are in the nature of semi-essential items.
Apparel, both men’s and women’s, and housefurnishings make up the bulk of department store
volume. While purchase of these goods cannot
be postponed indefinitely, it can be delayed for
short periods of time, and the delay is frequently
reflected in sales volume.
Department store sales in the Third Federal
Reserve District totaled $607 million last year,
a new all-time high. This volume was $60 mil
lion greater than in the previous year and two
and one-half times pre-war. A record Christmas
season was a fitting climax to a very successful
year.
Page 49
Although sales continue to increase, the upward
trend is slowing down. (Chart II).
but furniture volume has also been rising for the
past year after a slight decline in the second half
of 1946.
The most rapid rise occurred in the year follow
ing V-J Day, as service men returned to the con
The smallest post-war increase in dollar sales
sumer markets and employment and income in has been in women’s apparel and accessories, and
creased. A poor winter season followed, and small wares. Both of these departments enjoyed
sales during late 1946 and early 1947 averaged vigorous expansion during the war years, and
below the mid-1946 peak. The shock of sharply activity is still maintained at a high level. In the
rising prices and the growing quality conscious women’s apparel and accessories department, ac
ness on the part of consumers accounted for this cessories have shown greatest stability. Apparel
temporary slump.
sales have been much more erratic and contrib
uted prominently to the slump in total department
Buying began to increase again in the late store sales a year ago.
spring of 1947 reaching a new peak in the Christ
mas season. Dollar sales adjusted for normal
Other major main store departments reflect
seasonal changes, declined somewhat in the first the total main store trend—a sharp rise in the
three months of this year, and averaged only first half of the post-war period, followed by a
slightly more than in the last half of 1947. Easter leveling off at a high plateau in the last half.
trade this year was generally up to expectations.
If food prices remain high and food still takes an
unusually high proportion of the consumer’s dol
lar, prospects for a large increase in spending at Credit Buying
department stores are not too good.
Expanding credit business accounted for the
total increase in department store sales last year.
Cash sales actually declined slightly while instal
Sales by Departments
ment purchases rose 55 per cent and charge
account volume was 19 per cent higher.
Consumer demand for different types of goods
has varied considerably during the past three
This shift from the wartime habit of buying
years. Changes in the purchase pattern are in for cash started early in 1946, and there is no
dicated by seasonally-adjusted indexes of sales evidence to indicate that this new trend is slowing
in major departments of stores in this district. down. Cash purchases accounted for 55 per cent
(Chart III).
of total sales in 1945, only 45 per cent last year,
and 42 per cent in March this year. The cashThe most significant development has been the credit pattern today is similar to that of pre-war
increasing demand for less expensive merchan 1941 when cash purchases were 41 per cent of
dise, as evidenced by a comparison between main the total, charge accounts 49 per cent, and instal
store and basement store activity. Sales in the up ment 10 per cent.
stairs-store rose much more rapidly than base
ment sales in the first year following V-J Day,
As credit buying expanded, the repayment rate
but more recently the opposite has been true. —the ratio of repayments to consumer debts
Basement sales continued to rise and main store outstanding—slowed down and receivables rep
sales leveled off. The pressure of skyrocketing resented an increasing part of department store
prices following the removal of controls forced assets. Despite this decline, however, credit bal
more and more customers into the economy base ances are still being repaid faster than in pre-war
ments. The growing horde of underground shop 1941.
pers is once again requiring the attention of re
tailers. The trend of men’s and women’s apparel
Liberalization and elimination of Regulation
sales clearly illustrates this changing pattern.
W contributed to the expansion of credit and slow
ing down of payments. The return of durable
The only major department in the main store goods normally sold on deferred payments, ag
that continues to show a strong upward trend is gressive credit promotion, and the price squeeze
housefurnishings. The rise in sales of major on lower income groups were also contributing
household appliances has been most spectacular, factors.
CHART HI
SALES BY DEPARTMENTS
THIRD FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT
(INDEX 1942=100)
INDEX
MAIN STORE-TOTAL
BASEMENT
INDEX
STORE-TOTAL
200
I 50
100
50
1945
1946
1947
1948
1945
1946
1947
1948
MAIN STORE DEPARTMENTS
INDEX
WOMEN'S APPAREL
AND ACCESSORIES
INDEX
MEN'S AND BOYS' WEAR
200
200
I 50
150
100
I 00
50
50
PIECE GOODS AND
HOUSEHOLD TEXTILES
SMALL WARES
200
200
I 50
100
50
HOUSEFURNISHINGS
MISCELLANEOUS
200
200
150
I 00
50
1945
1946
1947
1948
1945
1946
T947
1948
BASEMENT STORE DEPARTMENTS
INDEX
WOMEN'S APPAREL
AND ACCESSORIES
MEN'S AND BOYS'WEAR
150
1 00
v
50
1945
1946
t
V
a!**
200
1947
1948
1945
INDEX
200
1 50
1 00
1
1
1946
50
1
1947
1948
Page 51
Inventories
Summary
“Caution” has characterized inventory policy
at department stores in this district throughout
the post-war period. While stocks on hand have
fluctuated, generally they have been maintained
below the pre-war relationship to sales. The
largest increase occurred during the first eleven
months of 1946 as reconversion of industry was
completed and civilian goods flowed into the
market in greater quantities. With the slump
in sales during the winter months, store managers
quickly reversed their inventory policies. Inferior
merchandise was sold at reduced prices, new
orders were placed with greater care, and, in
some instances, outstanding orders were can
celled.
At the present time it is by no means apparent
that a return to a buyers’ market is imminent.
Isolated instances of price cutting have taken
place. Some lines are moving more slowly. In
ventory positions are vulnerable to a sudden drop
in sales in many instances. Most urgent consumer needs have been satisfied. But these con
ditions are not sufficiently general or severe to
be decisive. At most, they are indications of broad
changes which may eventually come.
Consumer resentment of high prices, which may
well be increasing, should not be mistaken for
effective buyer resistance. For the time being,
the “squeeze” on some income groups is being
offset by the expansion of consumer credit and
additional spending by those able to pay the price.
t
**
The practices of ordering well in advance of
need and duplicate ordering, that grew out of the
scramble for merchandise during the war, were
gradually eliminated as supplies became more
plentiful. The normal pattern of seasonal buying
is being reinstated rapidly, and outstanding orders
are again in line with sales.
The high level of personal incomes, the avail
ability of consumer credit and large holdings of
liquid assets indicate that a sharp decline in the
dollar volume of retail trade and a sudden shift
to a buyers’ market are unlikely. Lower taxes
and the prospect of greater Government ex
penditures indicate a substantial decrease in the
Treasury’s cash surplus during the coming year.
Thus it appears that Treasury operations will
Stocks on hand have been increasing rapidly withdraw
a much smaller amount of money from
within recent months but do not appear to be the income stream than last year. Investment
excessive. Retailers are as price and quality and employment are at high levels and no break
conscious as their customers—as indeed they in them is anticipated for the near future.
must be.
An over-all view which points toward a high
level of sales and higher prices does not preclude
The biggest problem today is how to maintain the possibility of trouble in certain lines. More
an adequate stock of lower-priced merchandise over, the longer inflationary pressures continue,
to meet the demands of basement shoppers.
the more serious the reaction may be.
SAVING FOR SECURITY
Business is “good” today, not only in retail
trade but in most other fields as well. It is apt to
be “good” tomorrow; but it would be better the
day after tomorrow if it were not so “good” today.
“Good” business has come to mean a sellers’
market, and there is a growing feeling that unless
consumers are clamoring for more goods than
are available to buy, business is “bad”. This
sounds very much like the definition of inflation:
a condition in which effective demand exceeds the
supply of goods at stable prices. Indeed, the facts
show that the business boom has been a process
Page 52
of inflation. Demand is huge, bolstered by record
high incomes, use of accumulated savings, and
the free use of credit. Supply, although larger
than ever before in peace time, is short of demand.
Prices are still rising.
Fear of a slump is grounded on the feeling that
this situation cannot last. Continued inflation
eventually produces stresses and strains in the
economy, bringing on a downward spiral. Busi
ness turns “bad” when demand falls off and the
market becomes a buyers’ market.
*
LIQUID SAVING BY INDIVIDUALS
SPENDING AND SAVING
UNITED STATES
150
DISPOSABLE
NCOME
100
CONSUMPTION
(Billions of dollars)
1945
1946
Currency and bank deposits ...
Savings and loan associations. . .
Insurance and pension reserves.
U. S. savings bonds.......................
Other U. S. Government securi
ties ................................................
State and local government
securities .....................................
Corporate and other securities. .
Liquidation of debt (minus indi
cates increase in debt)...........
+19.0
+ 1.1
8>5
+ 6.8
+11.9
4"
+ 6.9
+ 0.9
+ 3-7
*
+ 1.3
— 0.2
— 0.7
— 0.4
+ 0.4
+ 0.3
+ 1.2
— 1.3
— 6.5
— 6.7
Total liquid savings..............
+36.9
+14.4
+ 8.9
1947
+
+
+
+
3.3
1.2
6.6
1.8
•Less than $50 million.
Source: Securities and Exchange Commission.
The jorm of saving is also changing. As the
rate
of total saving declines there has been a
SAVING
tendency
for individuals to add less to their cur
"35
'40
1945
1946
1947
1946
rency and bank deposit holdings. Savings in
insurance and pension reserves remained relative
ly constant in 1947, thus constituting a larger
But there is no inevitability in this sequence portion of the total. There has been a noticeable
of events. Restraint of inflationary forces is the shift of liquid saving into private debt forms
first step in preventing a depression. Since our since the war. Purchases of the securities of
economy is operating near peak capacity, there is corporations, for example, have increased as a
little prospect of combating today’s inflation result of a growing supply of such issues and
through more output. We must focus attention rising interest rates.
on demand. One of the most effective ways to
reduce demand is simply not to spend as much—
Investment in savings bonds is much smaller
to save more. More saving and less spending than during the war, but these securities still
might mean that business would not be as “good” remain an important part of total savings. Moreas it has been but would mean better business in
the long run.
SALES AND REDEMPTIONS OF SAVINGS BONDS
ANNUAL
QUARTERLY-ANNUAL RATES
UNITED STATES
Savings Trends
ALL SERIES
An important reason why dollar retail sales have
continued to rise since the war is that individuals
are spending more and saving less of their in
comes. It has also been an important reason why
consumers’ prices have risen so rapidly. In the
year and a half since prices were de-controlled, the
cost of living has risen by one-fourth. At the same
time, consumer expenditures have increased and
personal saving has decreased at about the same
rate as the price rise. The portion of incomes
saved is now somewhat below “normal”—that
is, compared with the 1929-1941 relationship.
Surveys made during 1947, moreover, indicated
that the distribution of savings was changing.
Many individuals in the lower income groups were
using liquid assets which they accumulated dur
ing the war to meet the higher cost of living and
to pay for emergencies. Many are slowing down
repayment of debts and are incurring new debt,
particularly for buying consumers’ goods and
housing.
SOLD
k
^Lsold
0
500
A
M
fc|B
1 EXCESS OF SALES OVER REDEMPTIONS
I
I EXCESS OF REDEMPTIONS OVER SALES
SERIES E
i
m
SERIES F
v-SOLD
0
500
'41 '42 '43 '44
JL
Asold
-✓-REDEEMED
SERIES G
redeemed
1945
Page 53
over, sales of all savings bonds, as shown in the
chart, have almost consistently exceeded redemp
tions. In April, however, individuals redeemed
more Series E bonds than they bought. In 1946
and again in 1947 redemptions exceeded sales in
the middle of the year. The possibility of a con
tinuance of this unfavorable sales-redemption
relationship is a strong reason for increasing
sales during the coming months.
Security Loan Drive
The nation is currently engaged in a Security
Loan Drive which began April 15 and will continue
until the end of June. Pennsylvania’s quota is
$175,000,000 of which it is hoped that $110,250,000
will be realized through the sale of Series E bonds
and $64,750,000 in Series F and G bonds. Phila
delphia’s quota is $49,000,000.
The drive is designed particularly to appeal to
small savers. But, as the accompanying table in
dicates, the offerings meet the needs of other in
vestors as well. As a special inducement to larger
savers, for example, the limitation on individual
purchases of Series E savings bonds during the
calendar year has been raised from $5,000 (ma
turity value) to $10,000.
each $1 million of savings deposits. For the bonda-month plan, it has been proposed that banks
consider one out of each 4Y2 checking accounts
as a likely prospect.
This intensive effort to induce people to save
is appropriately called the Security Loan Drive.
Surely the tremendous political, social, and eco
nomic upheavals now going on and likely to
come make the search for security one of the most
important basic human drives today. Savings
bonds can be one answer to the problem of per
sonal economic security confronting all of us.
“Saving for a rainy day” is a manifestation of
the desire to protect ourselves against risks and
uncertainties ahead. From an economic point
of view, this is often just a matter of common
sense. Incomes are high today, but they become
worth less and less as prices rise. If a slump
comes, incomes are likely to decline but the sav
ings built up during prosperity can serve as a
backlog. Moreover, they will be worth more as
prices decline.
Savings bonds are designed to meet our needs
for personal security. They are free from the
risk of market fluctuations and can be turned in
for cash on relatively short notice. They yield
a comparatively high return—in the case of Series
E bonds as high as 2.9 per cent. Series G bonds
Banks can play a very important part in selling can be used to provide current income in the fu
these securities to the saving public. A rough ture, or regular purchases of Series E bonds can
yardstick which has been suggested for banks is build up an annuity. Their purchase requires a
sales of $5,000 of savings bonds a month for each minimum of investment analysis and inconven
$1 million of commercial deposits and $2,500 for ience. For the wage earner, regular purchases
OFFERINGS IN THE SECURITY LOAN DRIVE
Series E
Savings Bonds
Series F
Savings Bonds
Series G
Savings Bonds
75% of maturity value
74% of maturity value
100%
10 years from date of issue 12 years from date of issue 12 years from date of issue
Rate
.................................................................................................. Varies; 2.90% if held to Varies; 2.53% if held to
maturity
maturity
Denominations ................................................................................ $25
to
$1,000 (maturity $25
value)
Redeemable for cash prior to maturity.................................. At holder’s option only,
after 60 days from issue
date at stated redemption
values
to
$10,000
value)
(maturity
2 Vt%
$100 to $10,000
At holder’s option only,
after 6 months on one
calendar month’s notice at
stated redemption values
At holder's option only,
after 6 months, on one
calendar month's notice at
stated redemption values*
Use as collateral..............................................................................
No
No
No
Salable in open market................................................................
No
No
No
Amount for which eligible investor may subscribe........... Not more than $10,000 ma Not more than $100,000 issue price of Series F and G
turity value in each cal
together in any one calendar year
endar year
after* decease63*^1 °* owner’ rec^ecnla^^e at 100% after 6 months from issue date if application for redemption is made within 6 months
Page 54
can be made automatically through pay roll de proper volume and use of savings can help to
ductions. The self-employed person can partici smooth out the fluctuations in economic activity
pate in the bond-a-month program in which his which have plagued all of us in the past.
bank will make regular purchases for him out of
his deposit account. Others will find numerous
Economic security can help to assure political
opportunities to buy—from the local bank, retail
security.
The more people holding the Govern
store, or door-to-door canvasser.
ment debt the greater will be the participation in
Personal security means security for our econ the financial management of the country. If we
omic system. More saving today would dampen can prevent the fluctuations characteristic of our
the demand for goods and consequently the up system in the past, we can greatly strengthen
ward pressure on prices. It would help to solve the economic and political system which we have
the current problem of excessive spending power and want to retain. And a strong internal system
represented by our large supply of money. Great enables this country to give greater assistance to
er saving could enable business to finance a large- less fortunate peoples abroad.
er part of its expansion out of current saving
rather than by borrowing from banks, thus avoid
“Normalcy” is a myth. We can never remain—
ing the expansion of the money supply which re nor could we afford to remain—static. “Secur
sults from bank lending. By using our savings ity” does not mean “normalcy.” But surely we
to buy savings bonds, we turn over to the Treas have enough control over our destinies to be able
ury funds with which it can pay off bank-held to meet the changes which must come and yet to
debt and thus reduce the money supply. If and secure ourselves against the uncertainties and
when business activity starts on the downswing, difficulties which they will bring. The overwhelm
the use of accumulated savings can stimulate the ing success of the Security Loan Drive would be
economy when it needs it most. In short, the an important step in that direction.
BUSINESS STATISTICS
Production
Philadelphia Federal Reserve District
Adjusted for Seasonal Variation
Not Adjusted
Production Workers in Pennsylvania
Factories
Per cent chsmge
Indexes: 1923-25 = 100
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
MANUFACTURING..............
Durable Goods.......................
Consumers’ Goods................
Metal products.....................
Textile products..................
Transportation equipment
Food products.......................
Tobacco and products ...
Building materials..............
Chemicals and products. .
Leather and products.........
Paper and printing.............
Individual Lines
Pig Iron..................................
Steel.......................................
Iron castings.........................
Steel castings.......................
Electrical apparatus...........
Motor vehicles.....................
Automobile parts & bodies
Locomotives and cars....
Shipbuilding.........................
Silk and rayon....................
Woolens and worsteds. .. .
Cotton products..................
Carpets and rugs................
Hosiery..................................
Underwear...........................
Cement..................................
Brick.......................................
Lumber and products....
Bread & bakery products.
Slaughtering, meat pack..
Sugar refining....................
Canning and preserving. .
Cigars....................................
Paper and wood pulp ...
Printing and publishing. .
Shoes.......................................
Leather, goat and kid. .. .
Explosives...........................
Paints and varnishes.........
Petroleum products...........
Coke, by-product................
COAL MINING
Mar. Feb. Mar.
1948 1948 1947
109p
112p
123p
lOlp
145
75p
125p
120p
117
56p|
160p|
86p
116 |
88
114
91
97
226
30
118
57
—
88
79p
38p
!09p
82
138
95p
61
30
—
121
72
185p
118
101
119
96
77p
102p
114
208p
157p
67p
68
57p
CRUDE OIL................................ 284
488
ELECTRIC P’lVR—OUTPUT
516
Sales, to industries............. 359
BUILDING CONTRACTS
TOTAL AWARDS+........... 198
Residential....................... 169
Nonresidential+................ 169
Public works & utilities-!-. 333
Mar. 1948
from
107r
108
114r
lOlr
137
70r
112
123
119
55r
158r
87
117
Month
ago
— 21
— 1
o1
— 2
+ 3
+ 3
— 2
0
—17
— 8
— 8
— 9
— 3
87
100
85
98
228
47r
120r
59
_
85
75
45
85
72r
130r
97r
58
29
_
102 105
66
64
194 196
141 120
101
91
123r 122
101r 90
89
85r
105r 77
120 107
234 215r
167 162
75
74
74
71
86 101
285 273
470 450
487 460
372 343
—14
+ 5
+ 3
+ 11
+ 3
—21
— 3
0
+ 2
+ 3
+ 4
— 1
+ 1
+ 1
— 1
—15
— 1
+ 1
— 2
+19
+10
— 5
—16
0
— 4
— 5
—14
— 3
— 5
—ii
— 6
—11
—8
—34
— 1
+ 4
+ 6
— 3
165
177
139
269
+20
— 4
+22
+24
111
113
123
103
140
73
128
121
141
61
174
95
120
102r
108
89r
88
220r
38
121
57
_
85r
76
38
108
81r
139
112
62
30
128
157
107
101
1
1948 Mar. Feb. Mar.
from
1948 1948 1947
3
Year mos.
ago 1947
+ 2 + 2 109p 111 107r
+ 3 + 2 112p 112 108r
+ 8 4- 5
0
0
+ 6 + 5 146 141 137
77p 77
72r
+ 6 + 4
+11 + 3 133p 131 120r
— 2 - 4 116p 117 118
— 2 - 4 108 118 110
+1 + 4
49p 50
48r
+1
160p 173 159r
— 2 +10
90r
88p 101
— 1
0 118 120 119
+ 1 + 1 101 105r
+14 + 8 122 114
+ 8 - 1
96
91r
— 1 -10 109
98
— 1
0 210 211r
—36 -29
32
38
— 2 + 2 129 131
— 2 -10
62
59r
+45 + 19
_
_
+ 4
0
91
90r
+ 6 + 5
76p 79
—17 -19
40p 41
-f 28
-30 109p 110
+ 13
- 8
85
84
+ 6 ^ 7 150 151
— 2
- 4
73p 78
+ 4 -- 3
60
59
+ 6 +
6
29
29
— 5 - 4 108 lllr
+ 16 + 2 114 101
+ 13 -ii 111
86
— 6 - 4 164p 179
— 1 - 2 109 119
+11 + 9 103 101
— 3 - 2 121 123r
+ 6 + 8 101
106r
— 9 +14
76p 97
+33 +18 102p 105r
+ 7 + 7 116 117r
— 4 - 5 206p 230
— 3 - - 3 163p 176
—10 - 3
67p 76
— 4 + 1
68
74
—43 -21
62p 94
+ 4
0 289 285
8 + 8 498 498
+12 + 10 511 526
,+ 5 + 6 342 368
1 . -f-55 +72 172 163
+ 7 +33 128 125
+57 +54 169 140
|+230|+264 303 322
* Unadjusted for seasonal variation.
100
107
89
110
212
50r
131r
64
87
72r
48
85r
75r
142r
75r
57
27
115
99
98
174
110
93
124
96
84r
77
109
214r
169
75
71
103
279
459
455
326
in
119
107
92
p Preliminary.
r Revised.
+ 3-month moving daily average centered at 3rd month.
** Increase of 1000% or more.
Local Business Conditions*
Percentage
change—
March
1948 from
month and
year ago
Allentown.........
Altoona..............
Harrisburg. . . .
Johnstown.........
Lancaster.........
Philadelphia . .
Reading..............
Scranton...........
Factory
employment
Factory
pay rolls
Feb.
1948
— 1
0
— 1
+ 1
+ 1
0
0
0
Mar.
1947
— 1
— 9
— 3
+ 7
+ 3
0
— 5
+ 5
Feb.
1948
— 2
— 2
0
— 4
+ 2
0
+ 1
0
Wilkes-Barre . + 1
0
Williamsport. . .
Wilmington. . . . + 2
York.................. — 1
— 8
—14
+ 7
— 4
+ 2
0
+ 4
+ 1
Building
permits
value
Mar. Feb. Mar.
1947 1948 1947
+14 + 19 +110
+ 8 +231 + 96
+ 14 — 94 — 52
+19 — 42 +102
+17 +219 + 33
+ 9 + 107 +339
+17 + 4 + 81
+23 +375 — 37
+ 65 — 35
+ 11 + 35 + 78
+ 1 +904 +405
+ 16 + 12 + 71
+ 7 +225 — 35
Retail
sales
Feb.
1948
+33
+87
+ 18
+20
+27
+33
+19
+42
+31
+40
+25
_
+27
Mar. Feb.
1947 1948
— i +15
+ 8 +17
+ 5 - -27
-14
+29
-31
+ 5
-17
+ 8
-12
+ 6
-21
+ 6
- 2
+ 12
+ 5
-28
-18
+12
_ -22
+ 7
1-20
• Area not restricted to the corporate limits of cities given here.
** Increase of 1000% or more.
56
Digitized Page
for FRASER
Debits
Mar.
1947
+37
+12
+ 6
+23
0
+16
+ 6
+ 8
+ 6
+14
+16
+17
0
Summary Estimates—March 1948
Weekly
Weekly man-hours
pay rolls
worked
All manufacturing......... 1,113,500 $55,465,000 44.923.000
Durable goods industries 631,200 34.457.000 25.843.000
Nondurable goods
482,300 21.009.000 19.080.000
Employ
ment
Changes in Major Industry Groups
Employment
Per cent
Mar. change
1948
In
1947
dex Feb.
1948 Mar.
All manufacturing........... 130
0
0
Durable goods industries. 156 +i
0
Nondurable goods
industries......................... 106
0
0
Food....................................... 121 —1
- 2
Tobacco................................ 101 —1
- 1
Textiles................................
- 4
89
0
- 2
Apparel................................
96 +1
b 4
Lumber.................................. 94 +2
Furniture and lumber
products............................ 103 —2 + 1
0 + 1
Paper..................................... 121
Printing and publishing. . 135 —3
0
- 1
0
Chemicals.............................. 121
Petroleum and coal
products........................... 150 +1 + 7
-15
Rubber.................................. 159 —2
- 2
Leather.................................. 95
-1
Stone, clay and glass......... 134 +2
Iron and steel....................... 139 +1 + 1
-12
0
Nonferrous metals.............. 148
Machinery (exci. elect.). . 212 +1 + 7
- 3
Electrical machinery......... 229 —1
Transportation equip.
220
+3
- 9
(excl. auto).......................
Automobiles and
-10
equipment....................... 171 —4
- 8
Other manufacturing.... 135 —1
Indexes
(1939 average = 100)
Pay rolls
Per cent
Mar. change
1948
from
In
Mar.
dex Feb.
1948 1947
288 +1 +14
328 +2 +15
241
232
222
225
251
199
0
+1
0
+1
+1
+1
+11
+H
-- 2
- -19
+14
+22
240
260
265
246
—2
—1
—3
—1
(-11
-13
- 6
b ?
284
284
193
287
290
308
443
476
0
—6
—6
+3
+3
+1
+1
0
+15
-24
+ i
+ 13
+20
+ 1
+21
+ 9
424
+5
+ 8
345
263
—6
0
- 3
- 3
Average Earnings and Working Time
March 1948
Per cent change
from year ago
Weekly
earnings
Hourly
earnings
Weekly
hours
Aver Ch’ge Aver Ch’ge Aver Ch'ge
age
age
age
All manufacturing. . . $49.81 +13 $1,235 +11 40.3 + 2
40.9
+ 4
54.59 + 16 1.333 +11
Durable goods Indus.
Nondurable goods
0
43.56 +10 1.101 +10 39.6
industries..................
0
42.94 + 13 1.041 + 13 41.2
Food................................
.752 + 1 38.5 + 1
28.95 + 3
Tobacco.........................
45.16 + 14 1.141 + 13 39.6 + 1
Textiles.........................
.942 + 10 39.0 + 1
36.77 + 12
Apparel.........................
.996 +16 39.6 + 2
39.43 + 18
Lumber.........................
Furniture and lumber
.998 + 9 43.0 + 1
42.92 + 10
products.....................
46.6f + 12 1.046 +11 44.6 + 1
Paper..............................
55.44 + 6 1.44f + 9 38.3 — 3
Printing and pub........
0
48.55 + 8 1.185 + 8 41.0
Chemicals....................
Petroleum and coal
39.3
—
2
1.469
57.66
+
»
+
8
products.....................
44.30 —11 1.28£ + 5 34.4 —15
Rubber...........................
35.7
—
6
.972
+11
34.72 + 4
Leather.........................
48.95 + 14 1.18C + 10 41.5 + 3
Stone, clay and glass.
56.01 +19 1.363 + 11 41.1 + 7
Iron and steel..............
54.18 +14 1.333 +13 407 + 1
Nonferrous metals. . .
Machinery (excl.
53.00 +13 1.309 +11 40.5 + 2
electrical)................
58.06 + 12 1.435 +10 40.5 + 2
Electrical machinery.
Transportation equip.
40.3 + 9
58.84 + 19 1.460
(excl. auto)..............
Automobiles and equip 55.55 + 1 1.364 +12 40.7 — 4
40.96 + 4 1.069 + 7 38.3 — 3
Other manufacturing
Distribution and Prices
Per cent change
March 1948 1948
from
from
3
Month) Year mos.
ago | ago 1947
Wholesale trade
unadjusted for seasonal
variation
Total of all lines..................
Drugs ..................................
Dry goods ...........................
Electrical supplies ...........
Groceries ..............................
Hardware ..............................
Jewelry ................................
Paper ....................................
Inventories
Total of all lines ................
Dry goods..............................
Electrical supplies ...........
Groceries ..............................
Hardware ...........................
Paper ..................................
+ 5
+ 13
+ 15
+ 2
+ 5
+ 13
+ 17
— 7
+ 6
—10
+ 2
— 8
— 3
+ 4
— 3
+
+
+
—
+
—
+10
+16
+ 5
— 2
+25
+46
3
8
6
2
4
1
— 8
— 3
0
+ 2
0
+ 4
Source: U. S. Department of Commerce.
Prices
Basic commodities
(Aug. 1939 = 100).
Wholesale (1926 =
100) .......................
Farm ....................
Food .......................
Other ....................
Living costs (1935
1939 = 100)
United States . . .
Philadelphia ....
Food ..................
Clothing .............
Fuels ..................
Housefumishings
Other ..................
Per cent change from
Mar.
Year Aug.
1948 Month]
ago ' ago
1939
318
— 2
- 5
+218
161
186
174
148
0
0
+ 1
0
+ 8
+ 2
+ 4
+13
+ 115
+205
+ 159
+ 84
167
166
196
192
135
196
142
0
— 1
— 2
0
0
+ 1
0
-
7
6
6
6
8
9
4
Indexes: 1935-1939 = 100
+1
+ 69
+ 69
-Ill
- - 93
- 40
- 95
- 41
RETAIL TRADE
Sales
Department stores—District...........
Philadelphia
Women’s apparel ...........................
Men’s apparel..................................
Shoe ..................................................
Furniture ...........................................
Inventories
Department stores—District .........
Philadelphia
Women’s apparel .............................
Shoe ......................................................
Furniture ...........................................
FREIGHT-CAR LOADINGS
Total ......................................................
Merchandise and miscellaneous. ,
Merchandise—lc.l................................
Coal ......................................................
Ore ....................................................
Coke ....................................................
Forest products ................................
Grain and products .........................
Livestock.............................................
MISCELLANEOUS
Life insurance sales .......................
Business liquidations
Number ...........................................
Amount of liabilities..................
Check payments ..............................
Adjusted for seasonal variation
Not adjusted
Per cent chtange
March 1948 1948
Mar. Feb. Mar.
from
from
1948 1948 1947
3
Month Year mos.
ago
ago
1947
Mar. Feb. Mar.
1948 1948 1947
+12
+11
+ 6
+ i
— i
284
258
290
259
253p
216
195
208
186
146
256r
235
282
279
250
—
260p
228p
241
140p
—
246
221
244r
141
—
224r
209
242
125
—
— 6
— 3
—13
—13
+12
— 1
—10
—20
—25
121
128
83
110
84
163
81
108
74
123
121
77
140
65
192
71
102
68
135
132
95
150
70
188
83
140
84
— 2
189
205
201
18
17
249
21
17
250
31
47
217
258
237
213
284
241p
263
232
234
238
200
237r
220
217
317
245
— 2
+ 2
— 9
+19
+20
+23*
+ 9
+ 8
— 2
—10
— 2
+ 8*
260p
226p
246
125p
~~
253
228
249r
137
—
224r
207
247
112
—
+
—
—
—
+
+16
+ 9
0
+ 12
+ 11*
129
133
83
107
191
173
93
114
80
134
133
82
135
171
179
88
116
74
143
138
95
145
159
200
95
147
91
— 4
+ 1
+ 2
—21
+12
— 3
+ 6
— 2
+ 8
—10
— 3
—12
—26
+20
—13
— 2
—23
—12
182
190
194
— 4
— 6
220
—14* —43* +39*
+ i* —65* + 3*
— 2 +14 + 9
251
• Computed from unadjusted data.
258
p Preliminary.
3
1
1
8
5*
r Revised.
Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
BANKING STATISTICS
MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND RELATED FACTORS
Reporting member
banks
(Millions $)
Assets
Commercial loans .........
Loans to brokers, etc. .
Other loans to carry secur.
Loans on real estate. . . .
Loans to banks ..............
Other loans ......................
Changes
in —
Apr. 28
1948 four
wks.
496
17
14
72
2
251
One
year
— 9 + 49
+ 2 — 4
+ 1 — 4
— 2
—13 — 1
+ 7 + 50
..............................
852 —12 + 88
Government securities .
Other securities ..............
1392 +50 —131
256
+ 6
—
Total investments . . .
1648 +50 —125
Total
Total loans & invest.
Reserve with F. R. Bank
Cash in vault ................
Balances with other bks.
Other assets—net...........
Liabilities
Demand dep. adjusted
Time deposits..................
U.S. Gov. Deposits ....
Interbank deposits ...
Borrowings ....................
Other liabilities ..............
Capital account ................
2500
473
42
106
58
2011
436
60
341
2
28
301
+38
+ 7
+ 1
—40
— 2
—
+
+
—
+
37
10
5
17
2
— 6 — 25
+15 — 2
— 4 — 14
+ 5
+ 2 — 3
— 3 + i
+ i
..._
Changes in weeks ended
Third Federal Reserve District
(Millions of dollars)
Apr.
14
Sources of funds:
Reserve Bank credit extended in district...........
Commercial transfers (chiefly interdistrict). . . .
Treasury operations .................. ;...............................
Total
.............................................................................
Uses of funds:
Currency demand .........................................................
Member bank reserve deposits..................................
“Other deposits” at Reserve Bank.........................
Other Federal Reserve accounts........... ..................
Total
.............................................................................
Member bank
reserves
(Daily averages;
dollar figures in
millions)
Phila. banks
1947 Apr. 115 .
1948 Mar.1-15 . . .
Mar. 16-31
Apr. 1-15. . .
Held
Re Ex
quir’d cess
Ratio
of
excess
to re
quired
$410
427
429
414
$403
420
415
405
$ 7
7
14
9
2%
2
4
2
Country banks
$379
1947 Apr. 1-15 .
1948 Mar. 1-15. .
380
Mar. 16-31 . 384
Apr. 1-15. . 391
$330
341
342
348
$ 49
39
42
43
15%
11
12
12
Apr.
21
+ 5
+24
+30
—42
—23
1 —18 'l 4-12
+ 9
+ 8
4-17
Ch’ges
in four
weeks
Apr.
28
—
—
+
~
8
— 3
4
+59
3
—54
9 ) + 2
1
— 1
+18
+17
|
—18
— 3
+15
—18
+ 12
Federal Reserve
Apr. 28
Bank of Phila.
(Dollar figures in
1948
millions)
Discounts & advances $ 18.2
Industrial loans .. .
.5
1460.0
U.S. securities.........
Total .................... $1478.7'
Fed. Res. notes . . .
Member bank dep.
U. S. general acct..
Foreign deposits . .
Other deposits .. ..
Gold cert, reserves.
Reserve ratio .........
|
+ 2
—11
— 2
+ 4
— 9
+ 2
Changes in—
Four
weeks
One
year
$+ 1-1 $+ 10.7
—
.1 — 0.6
— 31.9 —162.7
30.9 $—152.6
$1620.7 $— 4.9 $— 14.8
803.8 + 3.9 + 14.0
94.5 — 77.1 + 59.1
29.3 — 5.9 — 13.4
2.0 +
.1 — 0.4
1075.7 — 43.0 +181.9
42.2% —0.3%
+6.5%
Page 57
4
PEN
THE THIRD FEDERAL
RESERVE DISTRICT
@FedFRASER