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THE BUSINESS REVIEW FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA 'O Vi, MARCH 1, 194T .f % a EBusiness and banking activity in the Third Fed \ \ ?> industries, at least through the balance of 1941. eral Reserve District in January continued near Construction of both residential and nonresidential the peak levels reached at the end of 1940, despite buildings continues active. some curtailment in manufacturing operations for Employment and wage payments in most major inventory appraisal and repairs to machinery. lines of industry and trade were reduced'in January Early reports indicate substantial expansion in in but continued well above a year ago. yin February dustry and trade during February. the sharp expansion was resumed, especially at The production of materials for national defense steel and textile mills. has shown a steady and sharp advance since the Sales of general merchandise through retail dis beginning of the program last June. Many plants tributors declined more than usual in January, but have been erected or renovated and a substantial the demand for durable consumers’ goods con amount of new special equipment has been in tinued active. In wholesale trade some decrease stalled. Further large increases in operations on in business was also reported. The movement of government orders are in prospect. freight increased further in the month, when there Active defense buying has also stimulated pri is ordinarily some decline. V vate purchases, to some extent for the purpose of accumulating inventories in anticipation of pos sible difficulties in obtaining supplies of basic ma terials. The principal stimulus to civilian business has been the consistent high level of consumer in comes. The shift from peacetime to defense production has required substantial expansion of plant facili ties and has created an unusually active demand for various strategic goods. This has resulted in actual or threatened shortages of certain key ma terials and skilled labor. Adequate funds are available to finance a large expansion in business. Bank deposits continue near the all-time peak reached at the end of last year, and the volume of surplus funds in the bank ing system available for lending or investing is large. Industrial activity in this district during January declined somewhat. The principal reductions were in the output of consumers’ goods. The output of heavy goods was well sustained at levels substan tially above a year earlier. Large backlogs assure continued operations near capacity in many basic Securities markets since the first of the year have been somewhat unsettled, with prices showing a declining tendency. This has reflected in large part the uncertainties as to prospective develop ments abroad and as to the probable effects of the increased private and public demand for credit. Prices of commodities are generally firm, al though no sharp increases have occurred recently. When shortages in some lines have been in evi dence, priorities have been invoked either by in dustry or through the defense authorities. The cost of living has shown little change recently. INDUSTRIAL AND TRADE ACTIVITY EMPL0YMENT AND PAYROLLS IN PENNSYLVANIA PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PER CENT PERCENT PRODUCTION PAYROLLS ti RETAIL TRADE SALES EMPLOYMENT 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 Manufacturing. The demand for products manufactured in this district has expanded further, particularly in such industries as steel and textiles where defense buying has been active. The volume of inquiries and orders continued to advance from the middle of January to the middle of February and, despite increased operations in many basic lines, additional backlogs were accumulated. Re cent heavy shipments have reduced stocks of fin ished goods at reporting factories, while inventories of raw materials have been increased further to meet the requirements of higher operating rates and active deliveries in prospect. Prices of manu factured goods are firm or increasing at levels above those prevailing a year ago. 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 dustry, the number of wage earners also increased, while payrolls declined, partly as a result of a re duction in overtime work. At plants manufacturing consumers’ goods, de clines in both employment and payrolls predomi nated in January, especially in the textile industry. Dyeing and finishing operations and the production of knit goods and woolens and worsteds were fairly well sustained, but sharp declines were reported in silk and other lines. Hourly earnings of factory workers in Pennsyl vania increased fractionally to a new high average of slightly more than 74 cents. Average working time was reduced to 39 hours, and weekly income declined to $28.78 from the peak of $29.53 reached in December. Employment and payrolls at Pennsylvania fac tories declined less than seasonally in January, At Delaware factories, employment increased 2 and preliminary reports for February indicate per cent from December to January, and payrolls widespread advances in many lines. In capital goods industries the number of workers was in declined 4 per cent. In southern New Jersey, fac creased in January and wage payments were well tory employment declined 2 per cent and payrolls sustained near the peak levels reached in Decem 3 per cent in the month, but current levels continue ber. Declines were reported in the case of consum substantially above those prevailing in early 1940. ers’ goods. The total number of factory wage The output of manufactured products in the earners in the state continued near 1,000,000, or Third Federal Reserve District was reduced about 8 per cent more than a year ago, and wage pay 4 per cent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the ments aggregated about $26,500,000 a week, or 17 ten-year peak reached in December. But activity per cent more than in January 1940. was still 11 per cent above January 1940. The Employment in the steel industry increased from principal reductions in the month were in the output December to January and wage disbursements of consumers’ goods, particularly textiles, where showed little change. The greatest improvement operations were below a year ago. The production was at plants manufacturing structural products, of capital goods was reduced only slightly from electrical apparatus, castings, and forgings. Em the high levels of December and was 28 per cent ployment in nonferrous metal industries expanded larger than a year before. in the month and wage payments were reduced less than usual. In the transportation equipment in Page Two Production of metals increased somewhat less than seasonally, and the output of building ma- ACTIVITY IN THE STEEL INDUSTRY TEXTILE ACTIVITY EMPLOYEE-HOURS IN PENNSYLVANIA EMPLOYEE-HOURS IN PENNSYLVANIA FACTORIES PER CENT PER CENT FOUNDRIES WOOLENS AND / WORSTEDS STEEL WORKS AND ROLLING MILLS \ 250 —J 200 r? TEXTILES 1936 1937 1938 1940 1941 terials and transportation equipment was reduced 4 per cent more than was to be expected. Gains over last year in these lines ranged from 25 to nearly 50 per cent. • The production of electric power increased 3 per cent from December to January and total sales advanced 5 per cent on an adjusted basis. Both out put and sales were well above a year ago. 1937 193 8 1939 1940 1941 reduced. During January operations at coke ovens and oil refineries were below a year ago. Building. Construction activity in this district, as indicated by the trend of contract awards, in creased in January and was substantially greater than in the early months of 1940. Industrial building expanded further after the turn of the year, and the construction of small houses was unusually well sustained. Coal and other fuels. The domestic demand for fuels continues active. Expanding industrial activity and heavy rail traffic have stimulated sales of bituminous coal. The market for anthracite has been well sustained. Preliminary estimates show that the output of anthracite in 1940 approximated 50,000,000 tons. Prices of fuels have been firm. Awards of new contracts increased 4 per cent from December to $18,400,000 and were the larg est for any January since 1930. Substantial in creases in the month were reported in new con tracts for commercial buildings, apartments and hotels, educational structures, and public works and utilities. These gains were partly offset by Output of anthracite increased less than season smaller awards for one and two-family houses and ally from 188,000 tons a day in December to miscellaneous construction. A small decline also 191,000 tons daily in January. This compared occurred in the case of factories, but awards for with 216,000 tons in January 1940, the peak month these buildings, reflecting in large part the require of last year. The volume of hard coal mined changed ments for additional defense facilities, accounted for 30 per cent of total contracts let in January, as little in early February. against an average of only 6 per cent in the same Industrial consumption of bituminous coal con month of the five preceding years. Compared with tinued active, and sales expanded further in the a year ago, the value of contracts awarded in early part of February. Colliery output in Jan creased sharply in most lines. The exceptions were uary increased less than usual from the high levels multiple family dwellings and public works and reached in December but was the largest for the utilities, which showed declines of 54 and 35 per month since 1930. In some cases inventories are cent respectively. being accumulated. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ index of whole The production of by-product coke declined sale prices for the principal building materials still from December to January but remains active, approximates the fifteen-year high reached in midowing largely to the heavy requirements of the steel January. Quotations for certain lumber products industry. The output of gas and fuel oils was also during the first half of February decreased some- Page Three BUILDING CONTRACTS FREIGHT CAR LOADINGS PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT ALLEGHENY DISTRICT MILLIONS PER CENT TOTAL MERCHANDISE AND MISCELLANEOUS' TOTAL RESIDENTIAL INDUSTRIAL1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 what from previous high levels, while prices of plumbing and heating supplies advanced slightly. Trade. The volume of retail business was fairly well sustained in January following unusually active sales in the previous month, and early re ports indicate substantial improvement in the first half of February. Sales at wholesale declined somewhat over the turn of the year, Mmt advance orders for seasonal merchandise have been re ported as unusually large and reordering for im-l mediate delivery has been heavy in some lines. ‘ The movement of rail freight increased somewhat from December to January, when there is ordi narily a decline, and distributive activity generally was well above a year ago. Sales by department stores in January declined 5 per cent more than seasonally from the peak levels reached in December but were considerably larger than in January 1940. The volume of busi ness at these establishments appears to have in creased more than was to be expected in February. At women’s apparel stores, sales declined more than usual from December to January and were about the same as a year earlier. At shoe and men’s apparel stores the reduction in business in the month was about as large as was to be expected, but in both lines the volume of sales was substantially above that reported twelve months earlier. In the case of establishments handling such durable consumers’ goods as refrigerators, radios, and furniture, the decline from December was smaller than seasonal. Purchases of these goods have been active for some time, owing to the sustained high levels of consumer incomes. Stocks at retail establishments were reduced Page Four 1936 1937 1938 1940 1941 more than was to be expected in January and are relatively small as compared with sales. Despite favorable prospects for retail business, buyers for the stores appear to be cautious in making forward commitments. Sales at wholesale declined from December to January in the case of all reporting lines except electrical supplies and paper. The greatest reduc tion was in the case of jewelry, which had been purchased in large amounts for the holiday trade. Inventories at wholesale establishments increased in the month and were generally somewhat larger than a year earlier. Shipments by rail freight increased slightly from December to January and were substantially larger than in January 1940. The movement of merchandise and miscellaneous goods was sustained at the levels reached in December although there is ordinarily some decline; loadings of coal and coke increased more than was to be expected; and shipments of ore declined substantially less than seasonally. The sharpest gain in the month was in the movement of grain; shipments of live stock declined more than usual. Loadings of both types of agricultural products were slightly smaller than a year earlier, while loadings of the heavy industrial goods showed large gains in the twelve months. The movement of freight in the Phila delphia area was active in January and increased further in early February. Registrations of new passenger automobiles in this district declined 35 per cent from December to January and were slightly below January 1940. Occupancy and income of nonresort hotels in creased 16 and 5 per cent respectively in the month and were considerably above a year earlier. COMMERCIAL LOANS AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DEP0SITS AT MEMBER BANKS PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT INDEX MILLIONS MILLIONS COMMERCIAL LOANS * REPORTING BANKS 1800 COUNTRY BANKS PHILADELPHIA BANKS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (unadjusted) 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 1937 1938 1939 1940 1941 *~ALL OTHER'LOANS UP TO MAY 12,1937 Banking conditions. Credit extended by re porting banks in this district has increased to the highest point since the fall of 1931. This has been due partly to expansion in commercial loans, re flecting increased needs for working capital to finance the heavy volume of defense business and the general expansion in commercial and indus trial activity. Earning assets of the banks have also increased since January through the purchase of Treasury securities. Deposits have declined slightly further from the record levels prevailing at the first of the year. The reserve balances of all member banks were reduced from $712,000,000 on January 22 to $701,000,000 on February 19, despite substantial gains through commercial and financial transac tions with other districts. Operations of the Treas ury absorbed approximately $16,000,000. Heavy defense expenditures and other disbursements were exceeded by receipts, which included large cash payments on new defense securities, quarterly in stalments on Social Security taxes, and consider able amounts of unemployment trust funds received from the states for investment. Other factors tending to reduce reserves included an increase in outstanding officers’ checks of this bank and the greater than seasonal demand for $15,000,000 of currency and coin. At present levels reserves are substantially larger than a year ago and for the member banks in this district as a whole are more than double the amounts required to be held against deposits. Under these circumstances demands for Federal Reserve bank credit have been light. On February 19 discounts for member banks amounted to less than $500,000 and working capital advances to established businesses were $2,400,000. The par ticipation of this bank in System holdings of gov ernment securities has not changed since the first of the year, but the amount of $174,800,000 now held is $28,300,000 less than a year ago, reflecting sales from the System Open Market Account. Loans and investments of the reporting member banks have increased $20,000,000 in the past four weeks to $1,233,000,000, and exceed the level of a year ago by $70,000,000. An increase in loans during the latest period was due chiefly to an ex pansion of $7,000,000 in commercial accommoda tion. While commercial loans locally have not ad vanced steadily over the past five months as have the national figures, they show the same increase of 21 per cent over a year ago. In the past year the banks in this district have also added to their holdings of open market paper and increased the volume of their miscellaneous loans, which include credit extended on municipal, personal, and instal ment paper. Security loans and loans on real estate, however, have shown very little change. Security holdings have been increased $15, 000,000 in the past month, but currently are only about one per cent larger than a year ago. Addi tional investments made in the latest period in cluded $11,000,000 of United States bonds and $3,000,000 of Treasury notes. Deposits at the reporting banks show a small decline in the past month to $1,839,000,000 and are $20,000,000 under the record volume reported at the close of 1940. But deposits continue well above a year ago. The sharp upturn in total de posits at all member banks in the district in the past three years, amounting to about $660,000,000 or 24 per cent, has been entirely in demand bal ances. Page Five BUSINESS STATISTICS Production Employment and Income Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Adjusted for seasonal variation in Pennsylvania Not adjusted Industry, Trade and Service Per cent change Indexes: 1923-5=100 Jan. 1941 Dec. 1940 Jan. 1940 Jan. 1941 from Month ago INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION.. MANUFACTURING..................... Metal products.............................. Textile products............................ Transportation equipment........ Food products................................ Tobacco and products................. Building materials........................ Chemicals and products............. Leather and products.................. Paper and printing....................... Individual lines Pig iron.............................................. Steel.................................................... Iron castings.................................... Steel castings................................... Electrical apparatus..................... Motor vehicles................................ Automobile parts and bodies . . Locomotives and cars.................. Shipbuilding.................................... Silk manufactures......................... Woolen and worsteds................... Cotton products............................ Carpets and rugs........................... Hosiery.............................................. Underwear........................................ Cement.............................................. Brick................................................... Lumber and products.................. Slaughtering, meat packing. ... Sugar refining................................. Canning and preserving.............. Cigars................................................. Paper and wood pulp.................. Printing and publishing.............. Shoes................................................... Leather, goat and kid................. Explosives........................................ Pain ts and varnishes.................... Petroleum products...................... Coke, by-product.......................... COAL MINING............................... Anthracite........................................ Bituminous...................................... CRUDE Oil....................................... ELEC. POWER—OUTPUT... . Sales, total........................................ Sales to industries......................... BUILDING CONTRACTS TOTAL AWARDSf........................ Residential t..................................... Nonresidentialf.............................. Public works and utilities!.... 96p 96p 113p 83p 122p 72p 145 81p 101 50 133p 104p 88 101 100 115 89 123 83 150 83 100 52 r 140 111 91 88r 86 88 85 97 77 97 79 110 38 131 113 88 81 91 91 95 109 116 87 80 96p 87 137 141 146r 107 154 22 32 34 78 116 102 37 49 46 427 686 684 70 78 69 71r 60 56 51 53 52 116 132 105 94 94 80 141 133 136 66 75 46 48 65 62r 28 31 32 r 105 101 96 134 69 112 70p 70 60 110 101 99 78 79 78 93 90 90 137 126 131 83p 86 96 143 122 91 88 91 86 163p 170 169 140 135p 150 69 r 70r 64 70 r 62 67 r 77 82 70 423 303 311 219 Year ago - 5 + 9 + 11 + 28 2 + 26 — 6 + 49 + 3 — 8 + 30 + 2 — 8 0 - 4 - 2 - 7 - 1 -13 - 4 - 1 + i - 4 - 5 - 6 - 3 - 1 - 6 +n - 3 + 6 - 6 -13 + 5 0 -10 -15 + i - 9 -14 - 2 -11 + 4 - 2 _ 4* - 8 + 93 + i + 2 - 2 - 3 - 9 - 2 -15 + 4 - 4 -10 - 7 - 7 - 6 - 5 445 295 449 275 298 229 281 192 + 5 - 4 66 64 47 51 + 17 4 + 76 73 40 78 + 16 -17 69 75 88 60 Employment Dec. Jan. 1940 1940 Jan. 1941 + 3 + + + + + + + + + + + — — — — + + + + + + — — — — + + 95p 94p 118p 74p 145 80p 84 42 130p 108p 88 12 88 15 107 21 88p 57 145 44 145 47 28 30 101 31 47 61 700 71 1 6 60 53 2 21 100 15 84 5 130 45 46 34 60 10 29 2* 88 105 5 20 92 18 70p 8 83 77 1 90 0 128 4 13 88p 33 122 82 6 161p 3 135p 4 — — 9 — 11 + 10 6 + 10 + 11 + 14 74 72 88 88 85 117 80 151 82 73 47 r 139 105 92 94 79 97 77 91 32 128 117 88 90 78 109 93 73 80 135 92 142 r 100 27 19 114 78 36 46 718 436 79 71 57 r 66 54 55 111 124 91 98 135 138 32 61 60r 45 31 26 92 86 111 113 77 45 71 58 71 90 78 80 94 90 117 134 102 ya 141 91 77 85 169 168 146 140 73 r 71 r 81 81 80 86 406 321 320 212 218 76 431 292 418 315 307 74 62 + 47 + 45 + 118 — 23 * Unadjusted for seasonal variation. f 3-month moving daily average centered at 3rd month. 98 97 60 95 77 289 186 Allentown......... Altoona............. Harrisburg.... Johnstown. . . . Lancaster......... Philadelphia... Reading............ Scranton........... T renton............ Wilkes-Barre. . Williamsport. . W ilmington . . . York................... Employment Payrolls Building permits value 82 87 Retail sales Jan. 1940 Dec. 1940 Jan. 1940 Dec. 1940 Jan. 1940 Dec. 1940 Jan. 1940 -1 0 +3 +3 -1 0 0 -3 -1 -5 0 +2 -3 + 13 - 1 + 16 + 8 - 1 + 13 + 6 - 2 +10 - 1 + 5 + 14 + 12 -3 -7 +i +2 -2 -2 -2 -7 0 -5 -5 -4 -5 + 29 0 + 28 + 12 - 14 + 51 + 1160 + 757 + 219 - 19 + 90 1 + 106 + 329 - 97 - 74 - 38 + 36 + 109 + 151 +263 + 32 + 49 + 16 - 71 + 195 + 197 + 184 + 208 + 107 -61 -64 -59 -66 -59 -60 -62 -61 -67 -62 + 4 - 4 + 16 + 9 + 7 + 7 + 4 + 1 + 0 ~ 1 + 9 + 18 + 3 + 6 -60 -64 + 7 + 5 - 3 - 9 -11 - 8 - 9 -15 - 7 -10 -15 - 9 - 5 -29 - 9 Page Six 67 107 45 96 132 99 106 121 99 107 100 - 6 0 - 1 - 1 -15 - 9 - 2 - 1 -29 - 1 0 + i - 1 + 7 + 8 - 1 - 1 + 12 + 3 0 + 4 + 6 + 2 - 2 + 7 + 12 180 244 66 228 69 195 160 112 123 130 120 137 117 - 7 - 3 -10 - 4 -18 -11 + i - 1 -29 - 4 - 2 0 - 3 + 13 + 17 -26 +n + 25 + 18 + 3 + 6 + 3 + 7 + 2 + 8 + 17 Payrolls* Employment* Per cent Per cent Jan. change from Jan. change from 1941 1941 index Dec. Jan. index Dec. Jan. 1940 1940 1940 1940 Index: 1923-5=100 TOTAL........................................ Iron, steel and products. . . Nonferrous metal products Transportation equipment Textiles and clothing............ Textiles................................... Clothing.................................. Food products........................ Stone, clay and glass........... Lumber products................... Chemicals and products. . . Leather and products.......... Paper and printing............... Printing................................... Others: Cigars and tobacco............ Rubber tires, goods............ Musical instruments.......... 97 147 72 92 86 115 106 86 63 98 91 98 90 0 + 8 +2 + 14 +3 + 18 + 1 + 14 -2 0 -2 0 0 -2 -3 + 2 -3 + 10 -4 + 0 -1 + 6 0 +3 0 -2 -2 + 1 100 134 196 78 86 80 111 110 91 59 112 94 105 97 65 88 70 -3 + 17 0 + 5 +i + 14 63 102 74 96 - 3 - 1 - 2 - 5 - 5 - 5 - 5 - 7 - 7 -10 - 4 + 5 5 - - 3 + i - 3 -23 + 25 17 + +30 + 13 + 6 + 4 + 12 + 3 + 18 + 15 + 9 + 6 + 2 + 2 + 34 + 18 +27 * Figures from 2,436 plants. Hours and Wages Weekly working time* Hourly earnings* Aver Aver Ch’ge age Ch’ge age hours Weekly earningsf Aver Ch’ge age Debits Dec. 1940 * Area not restricted to the corporate limits of cities given here. 119 152 Manufacturing Factory workers Averages January 1941 and per cent change from year ago Jan. 1940 + 24 + 9 + 10 + 23 + 31 GENERAL INDEX............ Manufacturing........................ Anthracite mining................ Bituminous coal mining . . . Building and construction.. Quar. and rionmet. mining. Crude petroleum prod......... Public utilities........................ Retail trade............................. Wholesale trade..................... Hotels......................................... Laundries.................................. Dyeing and cleaning............ p—Preliminary, r—Revised. Dec. 1940 + 24 + 16 Indexes: 1932 = 100 52 42 44 100 Local Business Conditions* Percentage change— January 1941 from month and year ago Payrolls Per cent Per cent Jan. change from .Tan. change from 1941 1941 index Dec. Jan. index Dec. Jan. 1940 1940 1940 1940 + 3 + 9 - 6 + 18 + 11 + 29 + 27 + 15 TOTAL.............................. 39.0 Iron, steel and prod.. . 40.7 Nonferrous metal prod. 39.7 Transportation equip. 40.8 Textiles and clothing. . 34.6 Textiles.......................... 34.8 Clothing......................... 33.6 Food products............... 38.8 Stone, clay and glass.. 36.5 Lumber products......... 37.8 Chemicals and prod... 38.2 Leather and products. 38.8 Paper and printing. . . 38.4 Printing.......................... 36.2 Others: Cigars and tobacco. . 37.4 Rubber tires, goods.. 37.2 Musical instruments. 40.9 * Figures from 2,199 plants. +3 +1 +3 +3 +4 +2 +1 +3 0 +2 +3 +2 $28.78 33.24 26.74 33.07 18.66 18.96 17.74 24.02 26.28 21.49 30.84 21.37 29.09 34.51 + 11 + 8 + 2 + 5 + 5 + 7 0 + 6 + 10 + 2 + 5 + 2 0 +5 +1 +9 18.05 26.92 27.68 + 15 + 13 + 9 + 5 + 8 + 5 0 + 2 + 1 + 6 1 + 5 + 6 + 2 + 3 0 — 1 •If .743 .819 .674 .809 .542 .547 .523 .609 .724 .581 .816 .555 .735 .931 +4 +3 + 9 + 12 0 .482 .724 .677 + 9 t Figures from 2,436 plants. Distribution and Prices Per cent change Wholesale trade Adjusted for seasonal variation Jan.1941 from Unadjusted for seasonal variation Month ago Year ago Jan. 1941 Indexes: 1935-9 = 100 Dec. 1940 Month ago + 16 + 45 + 1 +33 + 9 + 43 + 52 + 5 Inventories + 3 -j- 3 RETAIL TRADE Sales Department stores—District.................... o + 10 — 2 — 3 lllp 116 110 116 124p 123 103 107 115 139p 128 Men’s apparel........................... Women’s apparel............................ Shoe............................................... Credit....................................... -15 + 29 + 8 + 13 + 7 -13 +33 101 96 105 96 113 95 89 95 0 Basic commodities 7 industrial............... 7 agricultural........... Wholesale (813)* . . Raw materials......... Finished products.. b arm........................... Food............................ Other.......................... Retail food* (1935-9 = 100).. . . Philadelphia............. Scranton.................... Month Year ago ago 90 57 81 75 83 72 74 84 0 +4 +1 +1 98 95 97 Aug. 1939 +3 0 0 +5 +1 +2 +1 +2 +4 +3 0 + 27 + 18 + 8 + 12 + 6 + 17 + 10 + 5 140 139 102 118 306 162 114 98 104 126 124 101 117 + 3 + 1 + 3 73 113 100 100 100 0 -35* +1 0 -2 +3 +3 +1 + 5 + 2 + 6 144 141 105 120 335 172 105 MISCELLANEOUS Life insurance sales.......................... New passenger auto, registrations................ Hotels— Occupancy............................................ Income, total................................. Business liquidations Number..................................... Amount of liabilities............................... Check payments................................ * Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Jan. 1940 74 74 - 8 + 15 100 FREIGHT-CAR LOADINGS—TOTAL Merchandise and miscellaneous............ Merchandise—I.c.l.......................... Coal................................... Ore............................................ Coke.................................. Forest products.......................... Grain and products................... Livestock..................................... Dec. 1940 80 + 9 lOlp 96 99 Women’s apparel....................... Shoe............................................... Credit........................................... Jan. 1941 Year ago + 7 + 8 99 Inventories Department stores—District........... Per cent change from Jan. 1941 103 102 118 102 133 Source: U. S. Department of Commerce. Commodity prices Index: 1926 = 100 Jan.1941 from Jan. 1940 Sales — 9 — 5 — 17 + 5 — 3 —30 -72 + 1 Not adjusted Per cent change 79p + 6 + 8 90p 88 81 85p 103p + 14 + 14 121 121 — 2* 104 120 109 + 5* 116 * Computed from unadjusted data. 134 110 -16* -14 p—Preliminary. BANKING STATISTICS Reporting member Feb. 19, 1941 (000,000’s omitted) Changes in— Four weeks One year +$ 7 + 1 + $ 42 + 9 Assets $ 238 34 24 32 50 Other loans to carry secur.. + 1 1 9 103 $ 481 +$ 5 + $ 60 Government securities......... $ Obligations fully guar’teed. 384 89 279 + 114 - 1 + 2 + $ 14 - 10 + 6 $ 752 + $15 + $ 10 Total loans & investments $1,233 Reserve with F. R. Bank .. 524 Cash in vault........................... 23 Balances with other banks. 211 80 1 2 + - + $20 - 13 0 - 11 0 + $ 70 + 87 + 3 - 16 6 Demand deposits, adjusted. $1,096 260 10 473 Borrowings............................... 15 217 -$ 2 + $153 2 - 44 + 29 + - 1 3 + 2 Feb.12 Feb.19 Changes in four weeks* +0.4 -9.4 +9.4 - 4.6 + 11.3 -16.0 + 4.3 + 9.7 -4.5 + 0.1 + 10.5 - 5.0 + 0.2 + 28.1 -16.1 - 9.3 + 9.5 + 11.6 + 12.2 +2.1 -0.9 -0.7 -0.1 + 5.2 -18.3 + 3.8 - 0.0 + 6.6 + 1.6 + 1.3 -0.0 + + + - 1.2 6.5 4.0 0.1 + 15.1 -11.1 + 8.4 - 0.2 +0.4 Total........................................................ Uses of funds: Currency demand............................ Member bank reserve deposits............ .. “Other deposits” at reserve bank.......... Other Federal Reserve accounts..................... Feb. 5 +0.4 Sources of funds: Reserve bank credit extended in district................... Commercial transfers (chiefly interdistrict).... Treasury operations.................................... Total.................................................... Liabilities U. S. Government deposits. Changes in weeks ended— Jan. 29 Philadelphia Federal Reserve District (Millions of dollars) - 9.3 +9.5 + 11.6 + 12.2 * Preliminary. Member bank reserves (Daily averages: dollar figures in millions) Held Re quired Phila. banks 1941: Jan. 1-15.. $513.9 $232.0 Jan. 16-31. . 519.0 232.7 Feb. 1-15.. 505.8 231.3 1940: Feb. 1-15.. 429.9 211.5 Country banks 1941: Jan. 1-15.. Jan.16-31.. Feb. 1-15.. 1940: Feb. 1-15.. 201 .7 103.3 193.0 101.8 190.4 102.1 174.4 96.2 Ex cess Ratio of excess to re quired $281.9 122% 286.3 123 “ 274.5 119 “ 218.4 103 “ 98.4 91.2 88.3 78.2 95 90 86 81 “ “ “ “ Federal Reserve Bank of Phila. (Dollar figures in millions) Feb. 19, 1941 Bills discounted.... Bills bought............... Industrial advances U. S. securities......... $ 0.5 0.0 2.4 174.8 $ 177.7 413.9 701.4 38.4 76.2 29.4 1,104.9 Reserve ratio............ 87.7% Note circulation... . Member bk. deposits U. S. general account Foreign deposits... Other deposits.......... Changes in— Four weeks One year -$ 0.1 -$ 0.1 + - 0.8 - 28.3 0.3 + $ 0.2 + 10.1 - 11.1 + 20.9 - 0.5 + 8.4 + 27.4 + 0.2% -$29.2 + 68.5 + 106.0 - 5.8 + 41.0 + 3.1 + 244.5 + 5.5% Page Seven National Summary of Business Conditions INDUSTRIAL Industrial activity continued at a high level in January and distribution of com modities was maintained in large volume. PRODUCTION Production Index of physical volume of production, ad justed for seasonal variation, 1935-1939 aver age =100. By months, January 1934 to Janu ary 1941. Index of total loadings of revenue freight, ad justed for seasonal variation, 1923—1925 aver age = 100. Miscellaneous, coal, and all other expressed in terms of points in the total index. By months, January 1934 to January_1941. In January volume of industrial production declined less than seasonally and the Board’s adjusted index rose one point further to 139 per cent of the 1935-39 average. There were further considerable increases in activity in industries making machinery, aircraft, ships, and similar products important to the defense program, and output of industrial materials, such as steel and nonferrous metals, continued at near capacity rates. Lumber production also was in unusually large volume owing to demand arising from construction under the defense program as well as from private building. Automobile production,- which ordinarily declines considerably at this time of year, was maintained at a high rate in January and the first half of February. This reflected in part an unusually large volume of retail sales and in part the industry s efforts to build up dealers’ stocks of cars as much as possible with a view to having an adequate supply on hand in case priorities or work on defense orders should neces sitate curtailment of automobile production. Currently dealers’ stocks of new cars are probably near record levels. In the cotton textile industry, activity in January showed some further increase from the record level reached in December but the rise was less than usually occurs at this season. At wool textile mills there was some decline from the high level of November and December, while output at rayon mills was maintained in large volume. Defense program orders for textiles, particularly wool and cotton products, have been substantial for some time, and these combined with considerable civilian demand have resulted in the accumulation of large order backlogs at most mills. Activity at meat packing establishments was reduced in January owing chiefly to a sharp decline in hog slaughter, which has been exceptionally large in the latter part of 1940. Shoe production advanced by less than the usual seasonal amount following a high rate of output in November and December. At mines output of most metals continued at record levels in January. Production of fuels was sustained in large volume but was not at such high levels as. output of other minerals owing in part to the existence of considerable stocks, particularly of petroleum products. Value of construction contracts, as reported by the F. W. Dodge Corporation, declined in January. The decrease reflected chiefly a sharp reduction in awards for public construction from the exceptionally large December total, which had included a number of defense projects not previously reported by the Dodge Corporation for lack of detailed information. Contracts awarded for private nonresidential building declined somewhat in January but as in December were twice as large as the amount awarded in the corresponding period a year ago. Awards for private residential build ing increased and on a seasonally adjusted basis were at the highest level since the middle of 1929. Distribution Distribution of commodities to consumers in January was maintained at the high level reached in the latter part of 1940. Sales at department and variety stores de clined seasonally following an unusually large amount of Christmas trade, while sales of automobiles continued near the rate prevailing in December. In the early part of February department store sales were sustained in large volume. Total freight-car loadings, which usually decline from December lo January, showed little change this year and the Board’s seasonally adjusted index rose two points further to 86 per cent of the 1923-25 average. Federal Reserve groupings of Bureau of Labor Statistics’ data. Thursday figures, January 4, 1934 to February 13, 1941. MONEY RATES IN NEW YORK CITY Wholesale Commodity Prices Prices of industrial materials and foodstuffs generally showed little change from the middle of January to the middle of February. Some imported commodities, prin cipally coffee, cocoa, rubber, and tin, rose slightly and there were increases also in prices of lard and wool tops, while declines were reported for livestock and meats, hides, grains, lumber, and scrap metals. Prices of some finished commodities, par ticularly textile products, showed advances in this period. Bank Credit Total loans and investments at reporting member banks in 101 leading cities in creased substantially during January and the first half of February, reflecting largely purchases of new defense notes issued by the government. Commercial loans at these banks increased further while loans to New York security brokers and dealers declined. United States Government Security Prices For weeks ending January 6, 1934, to February 15, 1941. Page Eight Prices of United States Government securities continued to decline in the latter half of January and the first half of February, more than canceling the gains from the end of October to the peak on December 10. The 1960-65 bonds on February 14 were selling on a yield basis of 2.28 per cent, compared with a low of 2.03 per cent on Decemher 10.
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