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''•A'4 -------- THE BUSINESS REVIEW THIRD FEDERAL PHILADELPHIA *5 RESERVE DISTRICT MARCH i, 1939 "/£* FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA Business and Banking Conditions in the United States Industrial production increased less than seasonally in January and the first three weeks of February, following a rapid advance in the latter half of 1938. Wholesale commodity prices continued to show little change. Production. In January volume of in dustrial production, as measured by the Board’s seasonally adjusted index, was at 101 per cent of the 1923-1925 average as compared with 104 in December. At steel mills, where activity usually increases considerably at this season, output in January and the first three weeks of February was at about the same rate as in December. Automo bile production declined seasonally in the first two months of the year as re tail sales showed about the. usual de crease and dealers’ stocks reached adequate levels. Output -of cement de clined in January, and there was also some reduction in output of lumber and plate glass. In the nondurable goods industries, where production had been at a high level in December, activ ity increased less than seasonally. In creases at cotton, silk, and tobacco factories were smaller than usual and at woolen mills there was a decline. Shoe production and sugar refining con tinued in substantial volume, and activ ity ' at meat-packing establishments showed little change, following a de cline in December. Mineral produc tion increased somewhat in January, reflecting an increase in output of crude petroleum. Value of construction contracts awarded declined in January, accord ing to F. W. Dodge Corporation fig ures, owing principally to a reduction in awards for publicly-financed proj ects, which had been in large volume in December. Contracts for privatelyfinanced residential building continued at the recent advanced level, while awards for private nonresidential build ing remained in small volume. Employment. Factory employment and payrolls showed the usual decline be tween the middle of December and the middle of January. In most individual industries, as well as in the total, changes in the number of employees were of approximately seasonal propor INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FACTORY EMPLOYMENT MONEY RATES IN NEW YORK CITY Index of physical volume of production, ad justed for seasonal variation. By months, Jan ary 1934 to January 1939. Index of number employed, adjusted for seasonal variation. By months, January 1934 to January 1939. For weeks ending January 6, 1934, to February 18, 1939. tions. In trade, employment declined somewhat more than is usual after Christmas. Distribution. Sales at department and variety stores and by mail order houses showed the usual sharp seasonal decline from December to January. In the first two weeks of February department store sales continued at the January level. Volume of freight-car loadings in January and the first half of February was at about the same rate as in De cember. MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND RELATED ITEMS Wednesday figures, January 3, 1934, to Febru ary 21, 1939. Page One Commodity prices. Wholesale com modity prices generally continued to show little change in January and the first three weeks of February. Grain prices declined somewhat, following a rise in December, while prices of hogs increased seasonally. Changes in prices of industrial materials were small. Bank credit. Excess reserves of mem ber banks, which reached a record high level of $3,600,000,000 on January 25, declined somewhat in February. This decline resulted chiefly from a temporary increase in Treasury bal ances with the reserve banks repre senting cash receipts from the sale of the new United States Housing Au thority and Reconstruction Finance Corporation notes. Purchases of these notes were also responsible for an in crease in total loans and investments of reporting member banks in 101 leading cities, following a decline dur ing January. Average yields on United States Government securities declined further during the first three weeks of February to about the lowest levels ever reached. New issues of 91-day Treasury bills, after selling at par or at a slight premium in late De cember and early January, were again on a slight discount basis during Feb ruary. Other open market rates con tinued unchanged. Money rates. Business and Banking Conditions in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Industrial production in the Phila delphia Federal Reserve District de clined 3 per cent in January on a sea sonally adjusted basis, after having ad vanced from a low of 68 per cent of the 1923-25 average last April to 78 per cent in December, the highest level in over a year. The index in the first month of 1939, however, was 10 per cent above a year ago, when produc tive activity declined precipitously. The decrease in January reflected reductions in the output of manufac tured goods, bituminous coal, and crude oil. The output of anthracite expanded more than seasonally for the third successive month. In manufac turing lines the production of both du rable and non-durable goods declined, after having expanded steadily through out the last six months of 1938. Employment and payrolls in twelve lines of trade and industry in Penn sylvania declined 7 and 6 per cent re spectively from December to January, owing principally to seasonal reduc tions in retail trade activity, building construction, and quarrying, and to a decline of 3 per cent in factory wage payments. Increases were shown only in wholesale trade and anthracite min ing. Compared with January 1938, employment was down 4 per cent but payrolls were 7 per cent larger. Pre liminary reports indicate that factory employment and wage payments in February increased slightly but that the gains were of less than seasonal pro portions. Awards of building contracts in the district declined sharply, following an increase in December. Contracts for the construction of factories and com mercial buildings increased substan tially in the month but the gains were offset by reductions in those for family houses and public works and utilities. Awards for all categories of buildings except educational structures were well above the levels prevailing a year ago. Retail trade declined more than sea sonally from the high level reached in December and was less than the dol lar volume a year earlier. Wholesale trade also declined in the month but was above a year ago for the first time in fifteen months. Inventories at retail stores declined in the month while those at wholesale establishments increased slightly. Prices of staple commodities con tinued to fluctuate narrowly near the low levels which have prevailed since December. Quotations on agricultural staples have shown little change since last July and prices of industrial com modities have lost the gains of the late fall, owing primarily to substantial de clines in prices of hides. The general level of wholesale prices, based on 813 commodities, compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, was 76.6 per cent of the 1926 average in the week ended February 18 as compared with 77 per cent at the turn of the year. Manufacturing. The aggregate de mand for factory products in this dis trict in the early part of February MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY INDUSTRIAL FUEL AND POWER PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PERCENT PERCENT ELECTRIC POWER USED BY INDUSTRIES PRODUCTION (aDJ. for SEAS, variation) EMPLOYMENT FUEL OIL OUTPUT PAYROLLS BITUMINOUS COAL OUTPUT 1933 Page Two 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1934 1935 1936 1937 1939 1940 showed little change from the previous Business Indicators month. In iron and steel, leather goods, Philadelphia Federal Reserve District and textiles, there was some evidence Index numbers: percentages of the 1923-1925 average as 100 of increased sales from the low level Not adjusted Adjusted for seasonal variation prevailing around the first of the year. indexes allow for the usual Compared with a year ago, the volume Adjusted Per cent seasonal change in activity. change of business was up sharply, particu Unadjusted indexes reflect merely the Dec. Jan. Jan. 1939 Jan. Nov. Dec. Jan. actual change which may or may not Jan. Nov. larly in the case of textiles and build from 1938 1938 1938 1939 be typical. 1938 1938 1938 1939 ing materials. At iron and steel plants Month Year sales were reported to be less than last ago ago year at this time. 75p 76 68 r 75 78 76p 3 + 10 69 rj 74 Industrial production...... 73 72p 76 73 p — 4 + 13 63 r 73 Manufacturing—total.............. 64r 72 The volume of unfilled orders has Durable goods......................... 64p 65 1 C onsumers ’ goods .................. 86 shown some downward tendency in the 62 r 61 61 59 Metal products...................... 65 r 63 _ 4 + 2 62 62 78p 79 75 past several weeks as many plants con Textile products.................... 81 77p — 4 + 56 51 49 72 69 70 63 r 60 70 Transportation equipment. 69 — 1 + 10 63 r 63 tinue to work off their backlogs. At 73 75p 77 Food products....................... 73 76p 73 + 4 + 2 75 77 73 70 75 117 97 88 Tobacco and products......... 9 _ 2 90 98 textile mills, backlogs appear to be well 25 30 r 35 22 Building materials................ 33 28 14 35 + 15 25 — 109p 114r 109 Chemicals and products. . . 112p + 1 - 2 112 114 113 111 above February 1938, while at iron 120 114p 107 129 Leather and products..... 107 HOp 103 113 15 + 0 89 84 84 and steel plants they are lower. The 88 85 Paper and printing.............. 84 — 5 - 2 85 84 65 74p 59 Coal mining................................ 70 66 68p 3 + 6 58 64 volume of unfilled orders in other re 75p 65 58 Anthracite............................... 69p + 5 + 3 72 66 67 r 57 65 70 65 Bituminous............................. 57 62 7 + 17 56 49 63 porting lines shows little change in Crude oil..................................... 522 419 437 426 - 2 - 18 502 406 410 409 Electric power the year. Output..................................... 235 253 266 261 1 + ii 222 244 248 246 Sales, tot alt............................ 222 240 244 249 + 2 + 12 229 247 252 257 Operations on the whole have re 166 168 169 Sales to industries!.............. 175 1 + 14 148 153 162 177 mained steady since the first of the year, and wages Pa. with activity at textile mills and at Employment 75 76 Factory—Wage earners........... 2* - 1* 76 r 75 76r 73 73 Payrolls................................... 3* + 12* 66 plants turning out leather goods and -iii* 64 66 64 Man-hours (1927-28 = 100) 3* 57 General (1932 = 100) building materials substantially above 102 104 109 Employment.......................... 7* - 4* 106 142 144 151 the early part of 1938. There was 6* + 7* 134 Payrolls................................... some evidence last month of further Building and real estate 67 64 62 Contracts awarded!—total............ 73 82 + 13 + 19 53 69 62 decreases in stocks of finished goods, 41 42 40 Residential!.................................... 44 51 + 16 +106 20 25 39 73 77 69 and compared with a year ago these NonresidentialJ. . . ..................... 86 80 82 7 - 11 90 65 Public w'orks and utilities!......... 98 116 + 19 + 28 87 105 114 110 91 94 inventories were down sharply. The 24 14 15 Permits for building—17 cities___ 21 9 43 +107 +182 17 15 53 50 43 Real estate deeds—Philadelphia!. .. . 46 51 47 + 7 - 3 48 47 volume of raw materials on hand has Writs for Sheriff sales—Phila......... 214 37 - 28 343 367 348 246 298 328 341 continued at about the same low level for several weeks and is substantially Distribution 58p Retail trade —sales..................... 75p 59 r 89 r 132 76 75 r 80 6 - 2 70p 73 r 86 r 72 stocks................. 79p + 4 - 5 83 r 75r 76 less than last year at this time. 81 89 89 Wholesale trade—sales.................... 9* + 5* 77 58 56 66 stocks................. + 3* — 17* 69 Prices are reported to have shown 133 113 Life insurance sales........................... 96 127 127 + 0 + 43 79 89 91 73 122 96 New passenger auto, registrations. 40* + 37* 54 little change recently but are gener 119 101 Hotels—Occupancy.......... (1934 = 100) + 19* _ 4* 123r 121 129 125 139 r Income, total. . . (1934 = 100) + 3* - 5* 135 ally well below 1938 quotations. The 57 56 59 Freight-car loadings—total............ 50 62 64 + 3 + 13 57 58 55 55 59 Merchandise and miscellaneous. 62 64 + 3 + 14 49 index of finished goods prices com 56 60 68 66 Coal................................................... 64 62 63 + 3 + ii 61 57 58 piled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics liquidations was 80.4 per cent of the 1926 average Business 95 71 Number............................ + 33* — 21* 119r 99 22 34 Amount of liabilities . . . 35* — 22* 29 r 31 in the week ended February 18, com pared with 80.5 at the end of December Payment of accounts 84 86 101 Check payments..................... 94 82 83 81 80 12 + i and 83.0 a year ago. Rate of collections (actual) 35 29 33 Retail trade.......................... 29 29 32 29 + 2 + 2 34 Employment and payrolls in Penn sylvania factories declined 2 and 3 per Prices—United States 77 77 77 Wholesale (1926 = 100). 0* - 5* 81 cent respectively from December to 67 68 Farm products................ 68 1* - 6* 72 73 71 74 Foods............................... 2* — 6* 76 January, after having advanced stead 80 80 Other commodities........ 81 0* _ 4* 83 77 Retail food........................... 79 78 — 3* 1* 80 ily since the early part of last summer. 78 78 Philadelphia.................... 78 1* - 5* 82 75 72 Scranton........................... The decreases in the latest month, how 74 - 2* - 2* 75 ever, were smaller than is usual at this % change from Nov. Jan. Jan. time of year. (In millions of dollars) Month Year 1938 1938 1939 1938 1938 ago ago Among the major industry groups, the only actual gains during January Banking and credit Federal Reserve Bank were reported by plants producing $ 1.1 8 1.3 $ 1.4 $ 1.2 $ 2.4 — 14 - 3 - 7 216 226 226 226 210 nonferrous metal products and those + 6 384 366 380 378 401 +10 72.6 72.7 72.8 72.9 76.0 + 4 turning out leather goods, where ac Reporting member banks ii? 456 $ 418 8 423 $ 427 8 421 - 8 — 1 tivity has been increasing in prepara 723 655 731 734 733 — 0 +12 tion for spring business. Substantially 1,426 1,362 1,425 1,428 1,457 + 2 + 7 Bankers’ acceptances outstanding___ 12.9 10.9 11.2 10.9 - 8 -22 io.o less than seasonal declines occurred in * Computed from data unadjusted for seasonal variation. p—Preliminary. r—Revised the iron and steel plants—the most ! 3-month moving daily average centered at 3rd month, (a) Less cash items in process of collection. favorable comparisons with December t Not included in production index. Page Three STEEL PRICES AND INGOT PRODUCTION OUTPUT OF KNIT GOODS PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PERCENT, PERCENT PRODUCTION UNITED STATES I9< 3-25AvG.= IOO 175 UNDEfW EAR ___ v, 150 A* \j 125 --------L___ f PRICES OF FINISHED STEEL - 100 75 [^PRODUCTION _ PHILA FED. RES. DISTRICT . 1932 1933 1934 1935 >/ . * i \ t • • /V “ A' # t • \\ 1 »• r l i f\J /v HOSIERY-'* 50 I936~ 1937 being in forgings, structural steel, foundry products and engines and pumps—and at plants turning out tex tiles, and stone, clay and glass products. The January level of employment was only 1 per cent below a year ago and wage payments were nearly 12 per cent larger than in January 1938. These comparisons are better than in any month since the fall of 1937, when activity was declining sharply. At tex tile mills wage payments at the begin ning of 1939 were one-third higher than a year earlier, and at clothing, leather, and stone, clay and glass fac tories the gains in the year ranged from one-fifth to one-fourth. Total employee-hours in January de clined about 3 per cent from Decem ber but were 11 per cent above the level twelve months earlier. Working time averaged 34.6 hours a week, com pared with 3S.4 in December and 30 a year ago. Average weekly earnings also declined slightly in the month to $23.93. This compares with an aver age of $20.94 earned in January 1938. In Delaware factories employment and wage payments increased fraction ally in January, owing principally to increased activity at textile mills and at plants manufacturing chemicals and leather and rubber products. In south ern New Jersey employment declined about 2 per cent and wage payments 4 per cent from December, but both were substantially above a year ago. An upward trend in manufacturing activity in this district prevailed throughout the latter half of 1938 and by December had carried the index to the highest level in over a year. In / A / A 'JJ 1 h '# r ■ » 1938 1939 25 ADJUSTED FC R SEASONAL 1934 Page Four */. Vfs V A L 1935 January, however, the index of factory production, after adjustment for sea sonal variation, declined about 4 per cent from 76 to 73. The decline was due primarily to a contraction of 4 per cent on an ad justed basis in the output of consum ers’ goods, reflecting a sharp reduc tion in the output of shoes and declines in printing and in the manu facture of textiles and tobacco prod ucts. Durable goods in the aggregate showed only a slight contraction, being sustained by substantial increases in shipbuilding and the output of iron castings. The upturn last July and August was led by increases in con sumers’ goods but since that time the durable products have made a con sistently better showing. Despite the decline in the month, the output of factory products in January was 13 per cent higher than a year ago, making the most favorable an nual comparison for any month since the middle of 1937. Production of durable goods was S per cent higher than a year ago and consumers’ goods 20 per cent, activity in the textile in dustry alone being over half again as great as in January 1938. Among in dividual lines the sharpest improve ment was in carpets and rugs, where output was more than triple the 1938 level. Sales of electricity for lighting in creased 6 per cent, while sales to in dustries for power showed little change. Total output of electricity in the month decreased 2 per cent. Coal and other fuels. Production of anthracite increased more sharply than ARIATION 1936 1937 1938 1939 usual from December to January, and was the largest for the latter month since 1936. In the first half of Feb ruary colliery output slackened season ally but continued substantially above the level of a year earlier. Shipments from the mines in January also showed a gain over the preceding month, reach ing the largest volume reported in nearly a year. Supplies of anthracite in producers’ storage yards were re duced more than usual during the final quarter of 1938 and at the turn of the year were the smallest since 1933. Demand for bituminous coal by in dustrial consumers has been fairly well sustained over the past several weeks. Output of mines in Pennsylvania, how ever, showed a contraseasonal decline from December to January and de creased somewhat further in early February, according to preliminary re ports. Shipments of soft coal slack ened in January, but continued sub stantially above the volume of a year earlier. Production of by-product coke showed a further decline, instead of the customary seasonal increase. Activity at plants in eastern Pennsylvania, however, was maintained at a consid erably higher level than a year ago. Output of gas and fuel oils expanded sharply for the second successive month, but was about 5 per cent less than in January 1938. Building. Awards of building con tracts in this district in January ap proximated $14,245,000, a total nearly one-fourth smaller than in December, but 41 per cent greater than a year ago. The decrease in the month was due FREIGHT CAR LOADINGS VALUE OF BUILDING CONTRACTS ALLEGHENY PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT DISTRICT PERCENT PERCENT 1923 -25AVO.*IOO IOO INDUSTRIAL COAL ft/TOT/ L 75 RESIDENTIAL 50 o 1935 1937 1936 1938 to marked recessions in the value of contracts awarded for public works and utilities, educational buildings and family houses. Contracts let for com mercial and factory structures in creased sharply in January, and a somewhat smaller gain was reported in awards for apartments and hotels. Building contracts Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Per cent Jan. change 1939 (000’s From From omitted) month year ago ago Residential........................... $ 4,354 Apts, and hotels............. 1,525 Family houses................. 2,829 Non-residential.................. 6,173 Commercial...................... 2,178 Factories........................... 878 Educational..................... 387 All other........................... 2,730 - 14 + 38 - 28 - 20 +190 +147 - 92 + 51 +149 +541 + 87 + 9 + 93 +971 - 85 + 44 Total buildings........... $10,527 Public works and utilities. 3,718 - 18 - 36 + 42 + 39 Grand total.................. $14,245 - 24 + 41 Source: F. W. Dodge Corporation. Despite the substantial decline from December, the January awards were the heaviest for that month since 1930, owing chiefly to a volume of awards for industrial buildings and public works and utilities unusually high for this time of year. In the residential field, awards for one- and two-family dwellings showed a pronounced in crease over a year ago, but they were substantially less than in January 1937. Wholesale prices of building mate rials have fluctuated narrowly during the past twelve months. Average quo tations advanced slightly at the turn of the year but have decreased some what since then, owing principally to lower prices for sand, gravel, and sev 1939 MERCh ANDISE AN D M ISC ELLANEO JS ADJUSTED FOR SEASON AL VARIATIO 1933 1934- eral grades of lumber. The price index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics about the middle of February was 89 per cent of the 1926 average, compared with 90 five weeks earlier and 91 a year ago. Distribution, trade and service. Retail trade sales in this district declined 6 per cent more than seasonally from December to January and were 2 per cent below the level prevailing a year earlier. The contraction from the De cember holiday volume was greater than usual in all reporting lines, de creases ranging from 3 per cent at department stores to 11 per cent at shoe and men’s apparel stores. In both department and apparel stores there was a smaller reduction in sales in Philadelphia than at establishments out side the city. The volume of business done by metropolitan retailers on the whole compared somewhat less favor ably with January 1938. Comparisons with a year ago in in dividual lines ranged from a decline of 9 per cent reported by shoe stores to a gain of the same amount at credit stores. Sales by department stores were down 5 per cent, after having reached in December a level only 1 per cent below a year earlier. Inven tories declined by a smaller amount than that which seasonally occurs from December to January; they continued 5 per cent under the levels of a year ago. Wholesale trade declined 9 per cent from December to January, decreases extending to nearly all reporting lines. Sales of drugs and groceries alone showed gains, increasing 5 and 3 per 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 cent respectively. The greatest de crease was in jewelry, reflecting the usual reaction from the large volume of Christmas trade. Sales of electrical supplies, after increasing 36 per cent in the preceding month, also declined 18 per cent. Compared with a year ago, however, the total volume of wholesale business showed an increase for the first time since October 1937, January trade being 5 per cent above the correspond ing month last year. Dry goods and groceries were the only lines report ing declines. Inventories at wholesale establishments increased 3 per cent in the month but continued substantially below a year earlier. Freight-car loadings in the district increased somewhat in January so that the adjusted index advanced 3 per cent over the previous month. The gain re flected equal increases in the season ally adjusted shipments of both coal and merchandise and miscellaneous materials. Registrations of new" passenger au tomobiles in this district were 37 per cent larger in January than a year ago. After increasing substantially each month since the introduction of new models, however, there was a de cline of 40 per cent from December to January, reflecting seasonal influences. Total revenue of nonresort hotels in creased 3 per cent in January, follow ing a decline of 10 per cent in Decem ber, but was 5 per cent below a year ago. The gain in the month reflected improved room occupancy, income from other sources showing a substan tial decline. Page Five Jan., per cent change from Hotel business Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Month ago Year ago Capacity......................................... Room occupancy.......................... Per cent of capacity used: Jan. 1939...................... 51.4 Dec. 1938...................... 43.1 Jan. 1938...................... S3.3 Revenue from: Guest rooms.............................. Food............................................ Other sources............................ - 0 +19 -0 -4 +20 - 2 -10 -6 -5 -3 Total revenue........................... + 3 -5 Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (Dollar figures in millions) Feb. 15, 1939 Bills discounted.......... $ 1.2 Industrial advances. . U. S. securities............ 2.9 205.9 Total.......................... Note circulation......... Member bank deposits U. S. general account. Foreign bank deposits Other deposits............. Total reserves............. Reserve ratio............... $210.0 317.2 392.3 69.2 25.8 6.8 624.7 77.0% Changes in— Four weeks Reporting member hfltilfR (000,000’s omitted) One year -$0.0 + 0.0 - 0.1 0 - $1.3 + 0.0 - 0.5 - 5.8 -S0.1 + 3.5 - 9.9 +23.3 +10.6 + 0.1 +30.5 + 1-2% - $7.6 + 6.5 + 20.0 + 58.2 + 10.8 + 5.8 +111.0 + 4.6% Feb. 15, 1939 Assets Commercial loans................. $ Open market paper.............. Loans to brokers, etc........... Other loans to carry secur.. Loans on real estate............ Loans to banks...................... Other loans............................. 178 23 19 32 53 2 101 Total loans......................... $ 408 Government securities........ Obligations fully guar’teed. Other securities..................... Member banks in this district continue to maintain reserves substantially in excess of requirements. In the first half of Feb ruary, the proportion of excess to re quired reserves was 48 per cent at re serve city banks in Philadelphia and 54 per cent at the country banks. A year ago, when requirements were higher, these proportions were respec tively 24 and 28 per cent. Member bank reserves (Dollar figures in millions) Held Ratio of Re Ex excess quired cess to re quired Reserve city banks: 1939—Jan. 1-15 $246.3 $174.8 S71.5 Jan. 16-31 261-8 176.9 84.9 Feb. 1-15 260-7 176.3 84.4 1938—Feb. 1-15 230-4 186.4 44.0 41% 48 * 48 " 24 ” Country banks: 1939—Jan. 1-15 Jan. 16-31 Feb. 1-15 1938—Feb. 1-15 53 53 54 28 148 1 146 3 143.8 96.5 95.5 95.1 112.6 51.6 50.S 51.0 31.2 » ” * ” There was a decline of nearly $10, 000,000 in member bank reserves in the four weeks from January 18 to February 15. This was due princi pally to the net flow of about $19,000, 000 into the Treasurer’s account, which reflected payments to the gov ernment for new securities of the United States Housing Authority and the Reconstruction Finance Corpora tion, as well as Social Security taxes and a substantial amount of unemploy ment trust funds turned over to the Treasury for investment. Another factor contributing to the reduction in reserves was an expansion of more than $7,000,000 in currency demand, which substantially exceeded the in creases reported a year and two. years ago. On the other hand, the banks gained substantially in commercial and financial transactions with other dis tricts, representing in part the move ment of funds to this district in con nection with various payments to the government. Page Six Reserve bank credit extended locally showed no material change other than a decline in float, which varies from day to day in accordance with the time required to collect checks. Discounts for members continued negligible and virtually unchanged in amount, but the number of banks receiving accommo dation declined from 27 to 20. In the course of the period certain loans and investments which in sub stance represented bank premises and other real estate were transferred to “Other assets” in the weekly reports of member banks in leading cities. Apart from this change, the outstand ing credit of these banks increased $3,000,000 in the four weeks ended February 15. The investment in cor porate and municipal securities de clined, but holdings of direct and guar anteed obligations of the United States Government increased $6,000,000 to a level $57,000,000 higher than a year ago. Reporting member banks’ hold ings of direct government securities since December have been the largest on record, exceeding the previous peak in January 1937 by about $12,000,000. Small increases in open market paper and in loans to brokers and dealers were offset by decreases in other cate gories, with the result that total loans were unchanged. Commercial loans have shown little variation lately and Four One weeks* year* -S + + - 1 1 1 1 —$28 - 3 + 1 - 3 - 1 + +* 4 + 2 - 3 +*57 724 +* 3 +*74 Total loans & investments $1,132 Reserve with F. R. Bank. . 260 Cash in vault......................... 17 Balances with other banks. 172 Other assets—net................. 104 +S 3 - 9 +*43 + 21 + 2 + 32 - 3 Liabilities Demand deposits, adjusted. $ Time deposits........................ U. S. Government deposits. Interbank deposits............... Borrowings............................. Other liabilities..................... Capital account.................... - 3 777 283 54 335 + 2 + 7 15 221 - 1 + 1 + 17 +$11 -$18 + Sources of funds: Reserve bank credit extended in district............... Commercial transfers (chiefly interdistrict).......... Treasury operations..................................................... Uses of funds: Currency demand......................................................... Member bank reserve deposits................................. “Other deposits” at reserve bank........................... Unexpended capital funds.......................................... 4 * Revised. remain nearly 14 per cent under a year ago. Adjusted demand deposits declined $18,000,000 in the month, reflecting the influence of Treasury operations and currency requirements, but the de crease in aggregate deposits was held to but $9,000,000 by increases in time balances and in funds held for other banks. Expansion in interbank de posits has accounted for $58,000,000 of the total increase of $104,000,000 in deposits in the past year. Outstanding acceptances of banks in this district amounted to $10,029,000 at the end of January, the smallest vol ume for any like date since 1927. De clines in import and export bills were principally responsible for a decrease of $878,000 in the month and, together with a sharp contraction in bills cov ering domestic warehouse credits, ex plain a decrease of $2,845,000 in comparison with a year ago. Bills re lating to domestic shipments increased substantially in the year. MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND RELATED FACTORS Philadelphia Federal Reserve District (Millions of dollars) 3 — $31 364 92 268 Total investments........... $ Banking conditions. Changes in— Changes in weeks ending— Jan. 25 Feb. 1 Feb. 8 Feb. 15 Changes in four weeks -2.0 +3.7 +6.8 -1.7 +6.8 -6.8 -0.7 +0.8 +3.2 + 2.1 + 7.9 -22.9 - 2.3 +19.2 -19.7 +8.5 -1.7 +3.3 -12.9 - 2.8 -0.7 +9.1 +0.2 -0.1 +2.1 -3.6 -0.2 +0.0 + 1.9 + 1.2 +0.2 +0.0 + 3.9 -16.6 - 0.1 - 0.1 + + - +8.5 -1.7 +3.3 -12.9 72 9.9 0.1 0.2 - 2.8 Employment and Payrolls in Pennsylvania COMMERCIAL LOANS MILLIONS PHILA. FED. RES. DIST REPORTING MEMBER BANKS (All figures are rounded from original data) Manufacturing Indexes Employment* Payrolls* (Indexes are percentages of the 1923-25 average Per cent Per cent taken as 100. Total and group indexes are weight Jan. change from Jan. change from 1939 1939 ed proportionately.) index Jan. Dec. index Jan. Dec. 1938 1938 1938 1938 1938 All manufacturing. . .. JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT Note:-*AII other* loans up lo 12,1937 OCT NOV DEC. MEMBER BANK RESERVES MILLIONS MILLIONS PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Employeehourst Jan. 1939— per cent change from Jan. Dec. 1938 1938 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 5 8 0 4 3 3 73 71 113 51 84 82 93 102 64 42 88 90 93 90 +12 +10 - 4 + 4 +31 +33 +22 + 2 +24 + 11 - 3 +n - 1 + 8 + 2 - 1 - 2 + 1 - 4 +39 - 4 +42 - 1 +22 - 3 + 1 - 7 +18 -11 + 9 - 1 + o +21 + 7 +18 + 2 - 5 + 2 - 0 - 6 - 4 - 3 - 1 + 0 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 2 - 7 -10 -11 - 1 + 8 - 6 - 7 -24 - 0 - 3 34 89 54 -21 +25 +8 -46 - 0 - 8 75 - 1 Iron, steel and products . 66 - 9 Non-ferrous metal prods. 100 -11 Transportation equip.. . . 52 -10 Textiles and clothing.... 95 +13 Textiles........................... 91 +12 Clothing.......................... 111 +17 Food products................... 101 - 1 Stone, clay and glass.... 67 + 1 Lumber products.............. 50 + 3 Chemicals and products . 82 - 4 Leather and products.... 92 +12 Paper and printing........... 93 - 3 Printing........................... 88 - 4 Others: Cigars and tobacco.... 48 -14 Rubber tires, goods . . . 80 + 6 Musical instruments.. 54 + 1 + + - * Figures from 2,273 plants. t Figures from 2,045 plants. -42 + -101 -25 +23 +7 General Index Numbers TOTAL Covering twelve branches of trade and industry Payrolls Employment (Indexes are percentages of the 1932 average taken as 100. In dividual indexes are combined proportionately into general in dex number.) EXCESS General index REQUIRED 1929 ’30 '32 31 ’33 '34 ’35 '36 ’38 ’39 La+esI Jgo, i«-3i, isaa Percentage change—January 1939 from January 1938 City areas* Manufacturing Employ ment Wage payments Wilkes-Barre.... Williamsport........ Wilmington.......... Y ork....................... + 4 - 6 - 3 -15 + 5 + 0 + 5 +12 + 9 - 2 + 6 + 3 + 9 +16 +44 + 9 + 2 +20 + 7 +31 +23 +24 +10 + 16 + 3 +21 Allentown............. Altoona.................. Harrisburg............ Johnstown............. Lancaster.............. Philadelphia......... Reading................. Scranton................ Trenton................. Wilkes-Barre.... - Wilmington.......... York , +1 — 13 Allentown............. Altoona.................. Harrisburg............ Johnstown............ Lancaster.............. Philadelphia......... Reading................. Scranton................ Building permits (value) + 41 + 37 - 71 - 10 +136 +270 + 47 - 2 + 84 - 74 + 97 +780 Debits - 2 +10 +11 - 6 +17 + 1 +19 - 1 -15 + 3 + 3 - 1 + 5 Retail trade sales - 9 - 4 - 9 -11 - 6 - 4 + 6 + 4 + 3 - 6 (weighted)___ Manufacturing............................. Anthracite mining....................... Bituminous coal mining............ Building and construction........ Quarrying and non-met. mining Crude petroleum producing. . . Public utilities.............................. Retail trade................................... Wholesale trade............................ Hotels.............................................. Laundries....................................... Dyeing and cleaning................... Jan. 1939 index 102 118 67 103 49 82 132 92 103 117 108 96 92 Per cent change from Jan. 1938 Dec. 1938 - 4 - 1 -16 -11 -20 - 3 -18 - 6 - 2 + i - 3 - 5 - 4 - 7 - 2 + i - 0 -11 - 9 - 2 - 2 —25 + 2 ~ 1 - 1 — 5 Per cent change from Jan. 1939 index 142 179 65 180 65 131 142 101 124 117 120 120 103 Jan. 1938 Dec. 1938 + 7 +12 -17 +14 -15 +24 -15 - 2 + 3 + 2 - 7 + 2 + 2 - 6 - 3 +17 - 8 -11 -14 - 3 - 2 -19 +1 - 3 - 2 -10 INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS PENNSYLVANIA PERCENT PAYROLLS - 3 - 2 January 1939 from December 1938 1 4 5 1 2 1 1 1 4 5 - 4 - 1 - 2 + i - 3 - 2 - 3 - 9 - 8 -14 — 2 + i -17 +166 +380 - 24 - 50 - 20 +206 - 91 - 75 +398 - 83 +154 - 57 - 6 - 9 -17 -13 -10 -15 -19 -13 -42 -19 — 14 -42 - 9 -64 -60 -60 -63 -60 -59 -62 -60 -66 -62 EMPLOYMENT -58 -65 1933 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 * Area not restricted to the corporate limits of cities given here. Page Seven OUTPUT OF MANUFACTURES PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT AOJVSTCD ro« 3CASONAL VAHIATlOH STEEL PERCENT Index numbers of individual lines of trade and manufactures 75 50 ____ _ 25 Philadelphia Federal Reserve District O LOCOMOT VES AND CARS 75 Index numbers: percentages of the 1923-1925 average as 100 Adjusted for seasonal variation Adjusted indexes allow for the usual seasonal change in activity. Unadjusted indexes reflect merely the actual change which may or may not be typical. Not adjusted O Jan. 1939 from Jan. 1938 Nov. Dec. 1938 1938 Jan. 1939 100 75 50 Retail trade Stocks of goods Total of all stores..................... Department............................ Women’s apparel.................. Shoe.......................................... Credit....................................... 25 76 71 70r 95r 85 r 78 75 r 67 r 65 r 91r 90r 83 75p 6 67p — 3 69p — 11 90p — 8 77p — 11 85p 6 80 70 r 78 98 87 91 — — — — + 2 5 1 5 9 9 59 r 51 69 r 87 r 67 r 52 89 r 82 73 r 108 87 r 107 132 127 r 127 154 111 140 58p 48p 69p 83p 61p 56p 100 VA.J 83 r 75 r 76 54 r 51r 51 113r 97 r 104 62 68 61 102 101 104 79p + 50p — 107p + 67p + 98p 4 1 3 9 6 — — — 5 7 5 2 3 + 4 — 73 r 48 r 95 r 62 96 86 r 60 r 119r 65 115 72 47 98 58 96 70p 45p 91p 61p 93p 0 27 50 125 50 Sales Total of all lines........................ Boots and shoes.................... Drugs....................................... Dry goods............................... Electrical supplies................ Groceries................................. Hardware................................ Jewelry..................................... Paper........................................ 9* + 5* 77 _ 12* + 37* + + 14* 14* 10* _ 18* + 31* + 3* 1* 30* + 7* 79* + 1* _ 1* + 6* 89 Stocks of goods Total of all lines...................... Dry goods............................... Electrical supplies................ Groceries................................. Hardware................................ Jewelry..................................... Paper........................................ + 3* + 9* + 15* 2* + 8* + 0* + 7* 66 100 89 81 38 40 61 50 49 49 83 74 65 89 18 22 60 51 27 13 252 230 56 79 31 55 31 41 40 90 63 95 92 r 131 20 55 30 33 25 25 83 81 55 89 60 90 127 81 73 75 162 82 i 42 62 46 77 75 r 19 74 14 264 87 62 43 115 109 138r 43 35 26 93 89 90 31 51 52 97 95 67 68 87 93 149 176 79 84 76 79 75r 79 152 144 105 103 41 60 52 72 72 19 62 14 293 82 58 44 133 102 129 29 33 26 4 3 + 14 — 6 — 5 — 3 — 16 0 + u — 6 — 6 + 4 + 16 — 6 — 7 — 34 — 4 — 1 3* 94 + 5 96 +207 53p + 0 87 — 9 68 + 1 87 — 6 133 — 25 88p + 4 68 — 14 79 + 0 151p + 5 100 ~ 3 * Computed from data unadjusted for seasonal variation. — + 2 + 21 + 6 — 3 — 19 — 13 + 21 — 48 + 16 + 44 + 88 + 41 +230 + 61 + 39 + 41 + 11 + 5 1* + 12 + 18 — 5 — 2 + 13 — 4 + 5 + 8 — 7 + 5 — 6 + 22 V* V"\ V C EMENT /V'- 25 0 56 58 25 Wv yv>\T v if LUMBE R PRODUCTS 75 — 50 _ _ _ __ _ _ HOSIERY ------- -------vJV 75 50 _ 17* 69 9* 35* 14* 11* 16* 7* lJ O 150 75 Wholesale trade Page Eight \\vVA? 75 100 Pig iron............................................ Steel................................................... Iron castings................................... Steel castings.................................. Electrical apparatus..................... Motor vehicles............................... Automobile parts and bodies. . . Locomotives and cars.................. Shipbuilding.................. »............... Silk manufactures......................... Woolen and worsteds................... Cotton products............................. Carpets and rugs........................... Hosiery............................................. Underwear....................................... Cement............................................. Brick................................................. Lumber and products.................. Bread and bakery products.... Slaughtering, meat packing. . .. Sugar refining................................. Canning and preserving.............. Cigars................................................ Paper and wood pulp................... Printing and publishing.............. Shoes................................................. Leather, goat and kid.................. Explosives........................................ Paints and varnishes.................... Petroleum products...................... Coke, by-product.......................... WOOLENS AND WORSTEDS 125 25 Rate of stock turnover January (actual, not indexes) Output of manufactures SILK 125 Month Year ago ago Sales Total of all stores..................... Department............................ Men’s apparel...................... Women’s apparel.................. Shoe......................................... Credit....................................... 50 25 Per cent change Jan. Nov. Dec. Jan. 1938 1938 1938 1939 IM3-2SAYC. .IOO 100 — 0 PAPER AN 0 WOOD PULP 100 75 — 50 25 39 49 45 78 83 19 51 27 257 58 31 32 39 66 91 14 28 23 88 92 56 54 73 60 90 129 86 73 68 161 82 p—Preliminary. 38 58 50 77 69 15 63 12 230 80 59 43 102 108 132 54 33 25 91 103 59 55 116 67 88 140 76 76 78 r 152 101 42 58 43 74 73 r 15 73 14 277 89 r 58 46 109 106 136 36 33 r 26 96 20 53 68 68 94 150 92 78 76 143 100 40 59 47 76 67 17 62 14 299 83 59 45 125 106 126 20 31 24 87 103 66 52p 71 67 87 136 93p 68 71 150p 100 r—Revised. 5HOES 200 175 150 _AAi v V 125 IOO 75 \ H”\nH V V GOAT AND KID LEATHER 125 - A-A / \ "/ V IOO 75 50 PETROLE UM REFINING 200 175 150 125 100 rJtf CIGARS 150 125 IOO r\ /W 75 50 1935 1936 1937 19. 8 1939
@FedFRASER