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The Economic Situation of Blacks:
Notable Gains But Gaps Remain
Compensating Victims of Crime:
Blunting the Blow
The Fed In Print
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK o f PHILADELPHIA
business reticle
1978
Financial Analysts and the Nongrowth Cult
. . . In a world worried about the conse
quences of growth, the analyst's job be
comes considerably more difficult for he
must factor the "costs" of growth into the
profit potentials of corporations.
The Economic Situation of Blacks:
Notable Gains But Gaps Remain
. . . Blacks and other minorities chalked up
striking gains in income and employment
during the '60s, but significant gaps still
remain.
Compensating Victims of Crime:
Blunting the Blow
. . . Crime, an everyday occurrence, is an
everyday cost to its victims, and one way
of softening the impact on the victimized is
through compensation programs.
On our cover: On Chestnut Street between Fourth and Fifth streets in Philadelphia is this excellent
specimen of Greek Revival architecture which housed the Second Bank of the United States from around
1825 until its demise in the late 1830s. In 1816 Congress chartered the Bank on much the same terms as
the First Bank of the United States (whose charter had expired in 1811). The Second Bank was the center
of a dramatic power struggle during the 1830s between President Andrew Jackson, who opposed the Bank,
and Nicholas Biddle, its president. Although the Bank's Federal charter expired in 1836, Biddle received a
charter from the state of Pennsylvania, which enabled the institution to continue in business until 1841.
BUSINESS REVIEW
is produced in the Department of Research. Ronald B. Williams is Art Director and Manager,
Graphic Services. The authors will be glad to receive comments on their articles.
Requests for additional copies should be addressed to Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia,
Philadelphia,
Pennsylvania 19101.
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA
Financial Analysts
and the
Nongrowth Cult*
By David P. Eastburn, President
Federal Reserve Bank
of Philadelphia
In the financial field, "go-go" or "performance"-oriented portfolio management
came into vogue. Stocks in a fund not only
must go up, but they must go up faster than
those in competing funds. The new Adam
Smith put it succinctly:
During the 1950s and '60s, many Ameri
cans came to believe that continued eco
nomic growth and prosperity were here to
stay. Immutable forces were at work which
would boost GNP to record levels each year
ad infinitum.
The strongest of these forces were Gov
ernment policies which would keep the
economy from slipping into the major de
pressions and recessions of the pre-Key
nesian era. "Aggregate demand" became
the byword. Washington had both the
spending power and the inclination to wipe
out any sag in aggregate demand that
threatened to pull the economy down. At
the same time, chronic inflation was seen as
an expansive force. Inflation would keep
expectations buoyant and would shift
income from passive savers to active risktakers.
To the next generation the Depression
was only a dim memory, and inflation
was much more visible: The haircuts
that once cost fifty cents cost seventyfive cents and then one dollar and then
two. The next generation also arrived
at positions of responsibility without the
thirty-year apprenticeship that can bank
the fires of the most ambitious. So that
was the new generation, itching to
shake up things because the old boys
had been in the wrong game for twenty
years . . . .
And then one day there was a pool of
money $400 billion strong accounting
for half the business done on the New
* An address delivered before the annual meeting
of the Institute of Chartered Financial Analysts held
at the New York Hilton, New York City, May 22, 1972.
3
BUSINESS REVIEW
JUNE 1972
analyst's function in jeopardy? As I see it,
there are three possibilities:
York Stock Exchange, and run by a
group of tigers who knew they were
right just because the old boys had been
so wrong. The stage was set for “ per
formance." . . . Not only did the "per
formance" fund managers buy the
growth stocks—they traded them. Trad
ing was not for the Prudent Man, the
short-term fluctuations in the market
were not for him. The "performance"
fund managers figured the safest way
to preserve capital was to double it.1
1) The analyst is doomed. He might as
well pack up his charts and P/E
ratios and begin looking for a new
profession.
2) The nongrowth cult is not to be
taken seriously; it's just another pass
ing fad. Thus for the analyst it will
be business as usual.
3) The analyst still has a job to do but
it will be considerably more difficult.
In short, the name of the game was
growth, and as the markets continued to rise
the game was played for fun and profit,
drawing new believers to the growth altar.
In 1969, stock prices tumbled—over 30 per
cent on some indices. The slump put a
crimp in the growth movement, but only
for a time.
Now a new threat, and perhaps a more
lasting one, faces the notion of continuous
growth. Recently a number of scientists and
concerned individuals have challenged the
belief that growth per se is good. They see
a continued emphasis on growth leading to
a deterioration in the quality of life that
cannot be balanced by the increased output
of material goods. They see rising GNP and
population in terms of more pollution, more
congestion, and more human frustration. On
top of that, they believe continued growth
will, in the not-so-distant future, lead to
the doom of mankind. In short, this non
growth cult is asking for a halt in the hectic
pace of change before it's too late.
I would like to examine some of the im
plications of the nongrowth cult for finan
cial analysts. If a major part of the analyst's
job is to ferret out situations where growth
will produce favorable returns to investors,
and if growth is socially bad, then is the
POSSIBILITY 1:
THE DOOMSDAY PARADIGM
A small group of men of different nation
alities and callings met in Rome a few years
ago to ponder the causes and cures of
worldwide chaos—poverty, unemployment,
inflation, urban decay, environmental de
gradation, loss of faith in existing institu
tions, etc. Sponsored by this Club of Rome,
a team of MIT specialists, including a sys
tems analyst and a computer wizard, made
a study in breadth—worldwide in scope.
The team ran the whole world and its
3.5 billion people through a computer and
found that they are multiplying at a rate
which would bring about a collapse of
civilization in a hundred years, if not sooner.
So great is the world's complexity that
everything is related to everything else.
Consequently, the study called for not just
one set of equations and one run through
the computer, but about a hundred runs.
Various assumptions were fed into the com
puter in the hope of finding a brighter
future, but invariably the print-out was a
disappointment. For example, what would
happen if unrenewable resources were
doubled as a result of new discoveries and
new technologies? The answer: greater in
dustrial output but only at the cost of in
tolerable levels of pollution. Or, feed the
computer with "unlimited resources" and
^"Adam Smith," The Money Came (New York:
Random House, 1967), pp. 210-211.
4
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA
pollution held to a fourth of its present
level, where do we come out? Answer: Food
per capita sinks to the subsistence level, the
death rate rises, and population growth
grinds to a full stop.
If the MIT team did its homework proper
ly, a limit on exponential growth is inevita
ble. Either we impose it, or nature imposes
it for us. In either case the financial analyst
faces doom. If nature drives us to a sub
sistence level, investor capital dries up. If
we manage to ease ourselves into zero
growth, investment funds will be available,
but the prospects will not. How can an
analyst ferret out situations where growth
will produce profitable returns for investors
when the lid is on growth? Self-defenestra
tion may again be in vogue.
ment could not henceforth be counted
on . . . . It meant that in the future the
stimulus of capitalism's investment
would rest on the shoulders of tech
nological progress alone . . . . The future
might be equally as inventive as the
past—perhaps even more so. But the
pace of invention was likewise apt to
be as sporadic and irregular. Unless the
economy were bolstered between its
periods of technological advance, it
would surely develop a succession of
depressions—deep depressions made all
the more intractable by the lack of an
undercurrent of steady human growth
or the easy availability of new geo
graphical markets.2
The chronic stagnation fad was buried by
the baby boom of the 1940s and an astound
ing pace of technological development.
Thus, in view of the past record, the
gloomy MIT report could be just another
growth "scare." If so, it will fade away as
did its predecessors. For the analyst it
’would be business as usual.
POSSIBILITY 2: NOTHING SERIOUS
The second possibility is that the non
growth cult is not to be taken seriously. It's
just another fad—like the tail fins on cars of
a decade ago—or just a 175-year-old rerun
of Parson Malthus' prediction dressed up
with mathematical models. The Parson's
forecast, you may recall, was put to rest by
the phenomenal economic growth of the
past two centuries.
Moreover, since Malthus' time the record
is replete with nongrowth fads. Karl Marx
saw the doom of capitalism. In 1844 Henry
L. Ellsworth, Commissioner of Patents, con
cluded: "The advancement of the arts from
year to year taxes our credulity and seems
to presage the arrival of that period when
human improvement must end." The de
pression of the 1930s gave birth to the thesis
of chronic economic stagnation. Alvin
Hansen was perhaps its outstanding pro
ponent.
POSSIBILITY 3:
HARD WORK FOR ANALYSTS
It seems to me that neither Possibility 1
nor 2 offers a realistic or viable alternative
for society, much less financial analysts.
For one reason, a number of questions
have been raised about the validity of the
MIT model and its implications. Leonard
Silk has pointed out in one of his columns
in the New York Times, for example, that
the model underestimates the ability of
resources to expand.
. . . The price system is the way man
kind—and not merely economists—
measures and regulates scarcity . . . .
. . . Looking at the census figures of the
1930's, Dr. Hansen found an alarming
trend. The rate of population growth
was slowing down . . . . This meant that
the single greatest stimulus to invest
- Robert L. Heilbroner, The Worldly Philosophers:
The Lives, Times, and Ideas of the Great Economic
Thinkers (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1953), pp.
290-292.
5
BUSINESS REVIEW
JUNE 1972
of Europe and the U.S. On a motor trip
in Asia, Justice Douglas once had a con
versation with his native chauffeur. Upon
learning that his chauffeur had a wife and
ten children, Justice Douglas commented
that "it takes a lot of children to keep a man
young."
"Not on one hundred rupees (about
twenty dollars) a month," said the chauf
feur . . . .
Justice Douglas asked him why he had
so many children if he had always been so
poor.
After a long silence, the native chauffeur
replied: "Sahib, you go home at night and
what happens? You have magazines and
books you can read. You have a radio.
Maybe, Sahib, you have, what is it, tele
vision? And you can see. I go home and
what do I have? Nothing but my wife.
Night after night after night. Only my wife.
That's why I have ten children."4
Yet, despite the need for growth the MIT
report does bring one point home: Rapid
economic growth has some undesirable
effects which must be taken seriously by
all. To limit these undesirable effects we
will need to rely more on incentive, tech
nology, and planning. Tax incentives, for
example, can be used to channel growth
away from activities particularly damaging
to the environment. Technology, while
much maligned, provides the best hope for
a cleaner automobile engine, more effective
sewage disposal, and ecologically sound
productive processes. Finally, planning of
fers the means for avoiding many problems
associated with rapid growth before they
occur. For example, zoning plans for a
region can be used to avoid future con
gestion or to limit further industrialization
of an area threatened with ecological
overload.
Is there, then, evidence from price
behavior that the world's resources are
growing scarcer and may soon run out?
The evidence, on the contrary, tends
to go the other way. World resource
prices have been soft; the resourceproducing underdeveloped countries
have been pressing the industrialized
countries, especially in the United Na
tions, to support prices of their exports
. . . . The MIT scholars may have under
estimated the rate at which the pond
[of resources] itself can be expected to
expand.
That was the basic error of their dis
tinguished early nineteenth-century pre
decessor, the Rev. Thomas M. Malthus
—the error of regarding resources as
essentially a fixed pool rather than as a
function of changing technology. Iron
was not a resource at all before the Iron
Age, nor coal before the Steam Age,
nor uranium before the Nuclear Age.3
In addition to questions about the realism
of the MIT model, there is the fundamental
one of whether we really want to put a
freeze on growth. I find it hard to see the
average American sitting still while a slowergrowing pie is being sliced up in a radically
different way. It would seem more accep
table to most people to enlarge the size of
the pie so everyone can have a bigger slice.
Furthermore, economic growth is necessary
to provide the technological equipment and
methods and the income needed to attack
the pollution we already have.
Moreover, to abandon economic growth
is to abandon millions of people in Third
World nations by locking them into poverty.
Indeed, economic growth itself might help
to slow, rather than speed up, population
growth in these countries, as it has for much
3 Leonard Silk, "Questions Must Be Raised about
the Imminence of Disaster," New York Times, March
13, 1972, p. 35
4 William O. Douglas, Behind the High Himalayas
(New York: Doubleday and Company, 1952), p. 24.
6
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA
CONCLUSION
What will these changes spell for the
financial analyst? First, he must factor them
into the profit potentialities of industries.
In addition to homing in on Continental
Conglomerates' five-year sales projections,
he must assess the likelihood of several of its
plants being closed from stiffer pollution
controls. He must examine the ability of its
management to seek out environmentally
acceptable products and its willingness to
plan for the company's survival in a world
where the premium is on the quality of life
rather than an increase in material goods
and gadgets. In short, the analyst has the
tough job of factoring into the profit pictture of firms the "costs" of growth.
Possibility 3, I think, is the appropriate
response. The nongrowth cult is reacting
against the blind forces of economic growth.
Its remedy, however, is to kill the goose that
lays the golden egg. Economic growth is
needed to deal with the multitude of social
problems facing us.
But today's financial analyst cannot afford
to ignore the nongrowth cult's warning. As
the undesirable effects of growth pile up,
increasing pressure will come to bear on
business to change its ways. This pressure
may even result in some slowing of eco
nomic growth. It will be government's
job to provide the incentives for rechannel
ing growth to socially desirable ends. And,
it will be the job of the analyst to pick for
investors those firms that can adapt through
technology and planning to a world worried
about the consequences of growth. Ana
lysts who are able to factor social demands
into the profit potentials of corporations will
be the "performance" leaders of the '70s
and '80s.
Second, the effort to limit the undesirable
effects of growth may result in a slowing of
overall economic growth. If so, the financial
analyst's job becomes even tougher. When
the economy is expanding by 8 or 9 percent,
it is considerably easier to find profitable
growth situations for investors than when it
is moving at a sluggish 2 or 3 percent.
7
JUNE 1972
BUSINESS REVIEW
NOW AVAILABLE
BROCHURE AND FILM STRIP ON
TRUTH IN LENDING
Truth in Lending became the law of the land in 1969. Since
then the law, requiring uniform and meaningful disclosure of the
cost of consumer credit, has been hailed as a major breakthrough
in consumer protection. But despite considerable publicity, the
general public is not very familiar with the law.
A brochure, "What Truth in Lending Means to You," cogently
spells out the essentials of the law. Copies in both English and
Spanish are available upon request from the Department of Bank
and Public Relations, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Phila
delphia, Pennsylvania 19101.
Available in English is a film strip on Regulation Z, Truth in
Lending, for showing to consumer groups. This 20-minute presen
tation, developed by the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System, is designed for use with a Dukane project that
uses 35mm film and plays a 33 RPM record synchronized with
the film. Copies of the'film strip can be purchased from the
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington,
D. C. 20551, for $10. It is available to groups in the Third Federal
Reserve District without charge except for return postage.
Persons in the Third District may direct requests for loan of
the film to Truth in Lending, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia,
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19101. Such requests should provide
for several alternate presentation dates.
8
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA
the economic /ituotlon of block/:
notable gain/ but gap/ remain
^
by robert rltchle
JUNE 1972
BUSINESS REVIEW
CHART 1
DURING THE PAST DECADE BLACKS MADE IMPORTANT INCOME GAINS BUT
DID NOT ATTAIN THE LEVELS OF THEIR WHITE COUNTERPARTS
Thousands*
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
* Blacks constitute about 92 percent of all persons in this group. Other races included are American
Indians and Orientals. Thus, this statistical series can be taken as an approximate measure of
economic trends among blacks.
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
10
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA
CHART 2
AND WHILE THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OF BLACKS AND WHITES DECLINED
APPRECIABLY DURING THE ’60s, THE BLACK UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REMAINED
NEARLY TWICE THAT OF WHITES
Percent unemployed
14 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Manpower Report of the President, April 1971;
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
11
JUNE 1972
BUSINESS REVIEW
CHART 3
IN ADDITION, BLACKS POSTED SIGNIFICANT GAINS BY MOVING INTO
HIGHER-PAYING OCCUPATIONS . . .
Percent
120
------------------------------------------------------------------
110
PERCENT CHANGE FROM 1960-1970:
IN JOBS HELD BY BLACKS AND OTHER MINORITY RACES
BY OCCUPATION
100
90
IN TOTAL NUMBER OF JOBS BY OCCUPATION
80
70
—
60
—
50 — <
40
30
20
10
0
WhiteCollar
BlueCollar
Service
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
12
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA
CHART 4
BUT BY 1970 THEIR SHARE OF HIGH-PAYING WHITE-COLLAR OCCUPATIONS STILL
FELL SHORT OF THE PROPORTION OF BLACKS IN THE TOTAL WORK FORCE
BLACKS AND OTHER MINORITY RACES
WHITES
Percent
WhiteCollar
Total
Work
Service
Force
* Proportion of Blacks and other minority races in total work force.
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
BlueCollar
13
Farm
BUSINESS REVIEW
JUNE 1972
Compensating
Victims of Crime:
Blunting the Blow
By Duane C. Harris
Murder, forcible rape, robbery, and ag
gravated assault are crimes of violence. A
glance at any large metropolitan newspaper
promptly relates the extent to which such
violence permeates the fabric of our society.
A glance at local, state, and Federal
budgets relates the dollars and cents of our
seemingly futile efforts to control this vio
lence.1 And although we spend millions of
dollars each year for crime prevention, those
millions represent only a portion of the total
cost of crime.
For every crime of violence there is a
victim; for every victim there is personal
loss. The value of lives and limbs lost, earn
ings foregone, the cost of hospitalization,
rehabilitation, and mental and physical an
1 For example, from 1960 through 1969, expenditures
(in real dollars) for police at the local, state, and
Federal levels increased by nearly 60 percent while
the rate of violent crime per 100,000 citizens increased
by over 100 percent.
14
guish are difficult to assess. Yet since crime
remains an everyday occurrence, it is an
everyday cost to its victims. Although we
can bolster our dollar efforts in an attempt
to reduce crime, it will never completely
vanish. Therefore, can we in some way re
duce the impact on those victimized by its
cruelty? One program which is gaining
popularity is governmental compensation to
victims of crime.
E s se n tia lly , co m p ensatio n program s
involve a provision by government of insur
ance against the personal costs of victimiza
tion. Premiums are collected in the form of
tax dollars and claims are paid to individuals
who have been subjected to criminal attack.
Mounting public pressure has led several
states either to adopt or consider such plans.
In addition, movement is underway to pro
vide a national program for compensating
victims of crime (see Box).
But before running headlong into the pub
lic provision of victim benefits, we should
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA
NEW EMPHASIS ON AN OLD IDEA
Although new in practice to the modern world, the concept of compensation to vic
tims of crime dates back 4000 years to the Babylonian Code of Hammurabi. Under this
code, a man who had been robbed made an itemized statement of his loss and was
compensated by the city and governor in whose province and jurisdiction the robbery
was committed. In Anglo-Saxon England, seventh-century laws included a list of pay
ments for a variety of crimes from murder to adultery. Every part of the body had its
value, from 50 shillings for an eye or foot to a sixpence for a toenail.
But by the middle of the tenth century, compensation for victims had been replaced
largely by mutilation and death for the offender. The Christian concepts of sin
were incorporated into law such that many crimes could no longer be settled by com
pensation. Murder, robbery, and rape were considered sins for which punishment was
required.* For nearly a thousand years the principle of compensation remained dor
mant until New Zealand and Great Britain initiated programs in 1964.
These leaders in the modern crime compensation movement provided a basis for
most subsequent compensation plans. As the program was initially designed in New
Zealand, awards were only for a list of specific crimes and were either in the form of
a lump sum or a periodic payment. Medical expenses were not an issue, since New
Zealand has a social security system which provides free hospital care and meets a
good portion of the costs of private medical care.
Great Britain devised a plan which is more flexible and less specific than New Zeal
and's. No payments are awarded for pain and suffering, but no limit is put on total
payments for any one case. In addition, the program also helps those who are injured
while trying to avert a crime or capture an offender. The main requirement for pay
ment is that the circumstances of the crime must be the subject of criminal proceedings
or the crime must have been reported to the police without delay.
In the United States, California and New York have been the forerunners in the vic
tim compensation area. California maintains two programs: one for victims of violent
crime, and another for those injured trying to prevent a crime or assisting in the appre
hension of a criminal ("Good Samaritan" program). As in Great Britain, no payments
are made for pain and suffering, but, unlike New Zealand and Great Britain, crime
victims must establish need. Usually awards are made only to families with dependents,
and payments are limited to a maximum of $5000. Most payments are periodic.
New York, incorporating aspects of both the British and California plans, makes no
award for pain and suffering and requires that need be proved. No limit is placed on
payments for medical expenses, but total reimbursement for lost earnings or loss of
support may not exceed $15,000. Here too, payments are made at periodic intervals.
In addition, Maryland, Hawaii, Massachusetts, and Nevada have initiated some form
of crime compensation legislation, although the programs vary in administration, quali
fications for awards, and maximum compensation allowed. Almost all of the states
make benefits available to dependents if the victim dies, and awards are generally re-
15
BUSINESS REVIEW
JUNE 1972
duced by any other additional compensation. The philosophy of victim reimbursement
has spread, and bills for crime compensation have recently been introduced in Illinois,
Ohio, Michigan, Arkansas, and New Jersey.
Reflecting this general trend in the country, crime compensation bills also have been
introduced in Congress. In 1965, Senator Ralph Yarborough introduced the first vic
tim compensation bill. Although the bill was not passed, other legislators have resub
mitted crime compensation legislation: Senator Mike Mansfield introduced a bill to the
Senate in 1970, and Representative William J. Green, Jr. introduced a companion bill to
the House in 1971.
* For an interesting discussion of the historical predecessors to current victim compensation programs
see Richard L. Worsnop, "Compensation for Victims of Crime," Editorial Research Reports, 22 September
1965, pp. 685-700.
carefully weigh the pros and cons of such
action.2 Does victim compensation appro
priately qualify as a public good? Or does
the private sector adequately achieve the
wants of society? Although these issues are
sticky, they must be settled if we are to best
use our already strained public resources
and at the same time meet the urgent needs
of victims of crime.
VICTIM COMPENSATION:
PUBLIC OR PRIVATE PROBLEM?
At a time when many taxpayers are already
screaming about the burden of the public
sector on their pocketbooks, public officials
must take special pains to allocate tax dol
lars to those areas not adequately served by
the private marketplace. For the most part,
casting our economic votes in the private
sector results in the production of those
goods and services most desired by society.
Yet, we know some situations arise in which
the market cannot secure socially desired
results. In these cases the public sector is
called upon to achieve our wants.
2 For a more extensive discussion of the issues sur
rounding victim compensation, see the articles cited
in the selected bibliography on page 20.
16
Externalities? One such situation occurs
when the private provision of a good or
service involves substantial externalities or
neighborhood effects. For example, in the
crime prevention area, police protec
tion is included in the public domain. For
if I privately hire a policeman to guard my
house, his very presence in my yard affords
my neighbor some protection also. Yet I
incur the total cost and my neighbor none.
So where benefits cannot be isolated only
for those who pay the cost, the public sector
is often used to "split the bill." Everyone
is required to purchase (through his tax dol
lar) some police protection since everyone
receives some protection.
But is the case the same for victim com
pensation? Clearly the answer is no. Private
remedies, including civil action and private
insurance, do not involve these neighbor
hood effects. If I incur the cost of suing
my attacker, any benefits forthcoming accrue
to me and me only. Likewise if I purchase
private life, medical, and disability insur
ance, claims are paid to me and not to my
neighbor.
But why should I have to provide privately
for society's failure to protect me? Since
society has assumed the duty to protect its
citizens, is it not liable when it fails? Until
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA
does not guarantee their effectiveness.3
Many crimes of violence go unsolved so
that the victim has no individual against
whom to bring suit. And even if the criminal
is apprehended, recovery of damages may
be difficult if he is destitute. Finally, civil
procedures are expensive at best and may
be so distasteful that the victim is effectively
prevented from pursuing that avenue of
relief.
But if individuals regard the civil process
as offering inadequate protection against the
costs of victimization, they still have the
option of privately insuring against such
losses. Life insurance is available to cover
the lost earnings or service potential of a
victim, disability insurance to offer an in
come stream while the injured victim is out
of work, and medical insurance to provide
for the out-of-pocket expenses of hospital
ization and rehabilitation. Although pro
ponents of victim compensation argue that
only a fraction of victimization costs are
covered by life, disability, and medical in
surance, that evidence alone is not enough
to indict private insurance for failure. Rather,
it may simply indicate that individuals have
exercised their right of choice and decided
not to pursue private protection. For ex
ample, as an individual decides how to di
vide his limited paycheck, he consciously
or subconsciously assesses the probabilities
and costs of becoming a victim of crime.
If the probabilities and costs seem low
enough, he may decide to spend more on
food, housing, or transportation and less on
insurance protection.
Is society responsible for assisting victims of
crime?
taxpayers vote enough dollars to provide
everyone with a personal bodyguard, it
seems clear that society elects to provide a
general aura of safety rather than safety in
every case. Thus, society does not assume
the role of protecting each and every one of
us, every minute, from every criminal act.
Rather, it seeks to promote conditions
whereby the norm will be one of personal
safety. As such, all of us are susceptible to
the probabilities of criminal violence.
Inadequate Private Remedies? So, if peo
ple must take chances when they walk the
streets, can they rely on private remedies
to meet restitution “ needs"? Or do these
remedies fail to provide the desired pro
tection?
Individuals victimized by crime are nor
mally entitled, under ordinary tort law, to
sue their assailants for money damages. But
the mere availability of legal procedures
Merit and Equity? So, if private remedies
are available and serious externalities do not
exist in the private provision of victim com
pensation, is there some other cause for
3 One study found that only 3 of 167 individuals—
less than 2 percent— collected anything from their
attackers. See Allen M. Linden, "Victims of Crime
and Tort Law," Canadian Bar Journal 12(1969) :17-33.
17
JUNE 1972
BUSINESS REVIEW
everyone access to some minimum level of
protection, government may have to make
special insurance provisions for low-income
victims of crime.
providing compensation out of the public
purse? One basis is to determine that pro
tection from the ravages of crime is a merit
good. Even though individuals, for whatever
reason, might otherwise choose to carry no
insurance, society might wish to impose its
"better" judgment and guarantee that "ade
quate" protection be provided. If indeed,
victim compensation is deemed so impor
tant (has such merit) that we feel everyone
should have claim to it, then we may wish
to guarantee that compensation through the
public sector.
But merit goods pose a knotty problem,
because the public satisfaction of such
considerations interferes with consumer
preferences. Just how far should we go in
designating various goods and services to
have merit qualities? So far society has been
unwilling to designate insurance in general
to be a merit good. We have yet to com
pensate publicly death and injury resulting
from auto and home accidents, or from
other disasters such as fires, tornados, and
floods. So should victim compensation oc
cupy a place in the public pocketbook more
special than these others?
For the majority of citizens who have the
income to exercise their choice concerning
private insurance against the consequences
of criminal violence, there seems little argu
ment in favor of providing public com
pensation for crime-related injuries. The
difficulty arises with protection for the poor.
Given that the poor have a severely limited
budget, there simply may be too many other
choices that take precedence over insurance
protection. And evidence indicates that the
poor are the very ones who face the highest
probability of criminal injury.4 So to give*
RESTITUTION FOR THE POOR
Thus, although victim compensation may
not pass many of the standard tests to qualify
for inclusion in the public sector, it
may qualify on equity considerations.
Society may simply determine that every
one should have access to protection
against the costs of crime—regardless of in
come level. For that reason it may choose
to provide such protection through the pub
lic till. But that is only part of the story.
Although we may determine that protection
be supplied free of direct charge to the poor,
the problem of deciding how it is to be pro
vided-through the private sector or through
direct government management—still exists.
There are several ways to provide insur
ance protection through the private sector.
One would be to give the poor an income
supplement so that insurance protection
becomes a realistic alternative in their in
come-budgeting process. With additional
cold cash via income transfer, the individual
could purchase insurance—or items such as
food and housing which he valued more
than insurance. Although an income sup
plement would not guarantee that the poor
would be insured, it would give them the
choice of being insured.
For those who value freedom of choice
highly, the income-transfer approach seems
to be a good solution to many problems
facing the poor. But there are other persons
who are concerned about poverty, yet are
less willing to allow a recipient of public
funds full reign on how these funds are to
*A 1967 study (Executive Office of the President,
The President's Commission on Law Enforcement and
Administration of Justice, The Challenge of Crime in
a Free Society [Washington: Government Printing
Office, 1967]) indicated that approximately 65 per
cent of total forcible rapes, robberies, and aggravated
assaults were committed against victims with less than
$6000 income. Over 30 percent were committed
against individuals with incomes less than $3000. At
the same time, families with incomes less than $6000
accounted for under 45 percent of total families.
18
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA
Alternatives in public assistance to the victim.
must be willing to spend tax dollars—and
plenty of them.
be spent. If society can better determine
what is "good" for the individual and those
around him than the individual himself, then
some type of "tied" provision is necessary.
One possibility would be an insurance
voucher. Each year the poor could be issued
a voucher which would be traded for in
surance protection from a private insurance
company. The insurance company would
then collect from the government unit spon
soring the program. Another possibility
would be for private companies to bid for
the crime-victim insurance business funded
by the government.
Government-managed compensation plans
could take the form of any of the several
already in existence. Certainly the track
record of these existing plans will provide
useful information for governmental units
currently contemplating victim assistance of
some kind.
In the end, that form of victim assistance
offering the most benefit for the least cost
should be chosen. Unfortunately, little in
formation is available on the cost of these
private and government alternatives. But
regardless of the plan, it appears that if
government is to make anything more than
a token provision for victims of crime, it
THE DOLLAR DECISION
For example, in 1970 there were more
than 700,000 victims of violent crimes in
the U.S. For Pennsylvania and New Jersey
the totals exceeded 25,000 and 20,000 re
spectively. Now, for a rough-and-ready
cost estimate, suppose these victims of crime
are compensated at the same average level
as workers injured on the job (via work
men's compensation).5 The average pay
ment per case in Pennsylvania and New
Jersey has been approximately $1500 over
the past few years.6 If we apply that figure
to the victim totals above, we find that the
cost of compensation at the national level
in 1970 would have been over $1 billion.
c This assumes that the distribution of the severity
of injuries from crime is the same as the distribution
for on-the-job injuries. It also assumes the payments
society deems appropriate for work-related injuries
should apply to those related to crime.
6 Cursory evidence indicates, however, that the
$1500 figure may be somewhat less than the average
cost of crimes of violence. One study estimated that
the economic impact of crimes of violence in the U.S.
for 1965 was in excess of $815 million. That works
out to somewhat more than $2000 per violent offense.
See The Challenge of Crime in a Free Society.
19
JUNE 1972
BUSINESS REVIEW
VICTIMS AND THE PUBLIC PURSE
Pennsylvania's price tag would have ex
ceeded $35 million, New Jersey's $30 million.
So, in our attempt to meet the needs of
crime victims and yet retain the public purse
for those programs most clearly public in
nature, we most likely will have to resort
to complementary private and public pro
grams. Our goal should be one of providing
everyone with realistic access to protection
against the costs of violent crime. For those
individuals with sufficient income, access is
already available through private insurance
programs. For the poverty-stricken, the
only avenue may be to provide protec
tion through government-sponsored plans.
Hopefully, a private and public partnership
in victim compensation can go a long way
toward blunting the blow of crimes of
violence.
Even if we limited compensation only to
the poor (defined as those with incomes
under $3000) and paid victims the
equivalent of workmen's compensation
benefits, the total dollar tab likely would
run in excess of $350 million at the national
level, $12 million for Pennsylvania, and $10
million for New Jersey. It is likely that even
these reduced figures will strike fear in the
hearts of lawmakers who are already stretch
ing national and state budgets to accommo
date ever-increasing expenditure demands.
But, nonetheless, they point up the com
mitment we are going to have to make if
we are to alleviate some of the costs to
victims of crimes of violence.
SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY
Executive Office of the President, The President's Commission on Law Enforcement and
Administration of Justice. The Challenge of Crime in a Free Society. Washington:
Government Printing Office, 1967.
Lamborn, LeRoy L. "Remedies for the Victims of Crime." Southern California Law
Review 43 (1970): 22-53.
Linden, Allen M. "Victims of Crime and Tort Law." Canadian Bar journal 12 (1969):
17-33.
Schmutz, John F. "Compensation for the Criminally Injured Revisited: An Emphasis on
the Victim." Notre Dame Lawyer 47 (1971): 88-119.
Worsnop, Richard L. "Compensation for Victims of Crime." Editorial Research Reports,
22 September 1965, pp. 685-700.
20
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA
The Fed In Print
Business Review Topics,
First Quarter 7972,
Selected by Doris Zimmermann
Articles appearing in the Federal Reserve
Bulletin and in the business reviews of the
Federal Reserve banks during the first quar
ter of 1972 are included in this compilation.
A cumulation of these entries covering the
years 1969 to date is available upon request.
Write to the Publications Department, Fed
eral Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
To receive copies of the Federal Reserve
Bulletin, mail sixty cents for each to the
Federal Reserve Board at the Washington
address on page 26. You may send for busi
ness reviews of the Federal Reserve banks,
free of charge, by writing directly to the
issuing banks, whose addresses also appear
on page 26.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
Cyclical and structural change in the U.S.
trade balance —Bost March 72 p 12
U.S. balance of payments and investment
position — F R Bull April 72 p 325
BANK CREDIT CARDS
Boom in bank credit cards — Phila Feb 72
p 10
BANK EARNINGS
Effect of holding company acquisitions
on bank performance — F R Bull Feb
72 p 105
Record income despite squeeze —San
Fran March 72 p 3
BANK LOANS — BUSINESS
Changes in bank lending practices, 1971 —
F R Bull April 72 p 375
BANK SUPERVISION
Money and banking in a new environment
(Hayes) - N.Y. Feb 72 p 19
BANK LOANS — REAL ESTATE
Nondiscriminatory statement, Dec 17,
1971 - F R Bull Jan 72 p 80
Statement on nondiscriminatory effective
May 1 — F R Bull March 72 p 321
BANK TAX
State taxation of national banks — F R Bull
Jan 72 p 40
BANK MARKETS
Consolidation of banks reshaping Texas
markets — Dallas Jan 72 p 1
BANKING DEFINITION
Multibanking terms —Dallas Jan 72 p 2
BANKING — FOREIGN BRANCHES
Assets and liabilities of foreign branches of
U.S. banks — F R Bull Feb 72 p 106
BANK PORTFOLIOS
Bank bond management: The maturity
dilemma — Phila March 72 p 23
BANK RESERVES
Revision of aggregate reserves and mem
ber bank deposits series — F R Bull
Feb 72 p 197
BANKING STRUCTURE
Banking structure and performance: Some
evidence from Ohio —Cleve March
72 p 3
BLACK BANKS
Minority-owned banks—Kansas City Feb
72 p 11
BANK RESERVES — EXCESS
Excess reserves and bank size —Cleve Jan
72 p 3
21
JUNE 1972
BUSINESS REVIEW
CAPITAL MARKET
Capital market developments 1952-1970 —
Cleve Jan 72 p 12
BRIMMER, ANDREW
Statement to Congress, Feb 23, 1972 (mi
nority economics) — F R Bull March
72 p 257
CHINA
The new China trade —San Fran Jan 72 p
3
China and the future —San Fran Jan 72 p
17
BROILER INDUSTRY
Where the chickens come home to roost
—Atlanta Feb 72 p 23
BURNS, ARTHUR F.
Statement to Congress, Feb 9, 1972 (eco
nomic stabilization) — F R Bull Feb 72
p 123
Statement to Congress, Feb 24, 1972 (for
eign exchange rates) — F R Bull March
72 p 269
Statement to Congress, March 2, 1972 (Par
Value Modification Act) — F R Bull
March 72 p 274
THE CHINA TRADE
available —San Fran March 72 p 19
COAL INDUSTRY
A salute to King Coal — Phila Jan 72 p 16
Coal: Roaring again! —Atlanta March 72
p 42
COMMERCIAL POLICY
Restrictions on world trade —Chic Feb 72
P 2
BUSINESS FORECASTS & REVIEWS
The Southeast in 1971 —out of the woods
—Atlanta Jan 72 p 2
Review and outlook 1971-72 —Chic Jan 72
P 2
1971: A year of reluctant recovery — F R
Bull Jan 72 p 1
District economy in '71 — on the way up —
Phila Jan 72 p 9
Third District businessmen look toward
7 2 -P h ila Jan 72 p 15
Financial developments in the Fourth
Quarter of 1971 — F R Bull Feb 72 p
95
The economy in 1972 —St. Louis Feb 72
P 2
Spectacular year —San Fran Feb 72 p 3
The 1971 forecasts revisited and a look at
1972 —Atlanta March 72 p 38
COMPENSATORY BALANCES
Compensating balance requirements inte
gral to bank lending — Dallas March
72 p 1
CONSTRUCTION
Residential building leads —Chic Jan 72 p
12
Private housing completions —a new di
mension in construction statistics —
F R Bull Jan 72 p 15
Ways to moderate fluctuations in the con
struction of housing — F R Bull March
72 p 215
CONSUMER EXPENDITURES
Credit rise boosts consumption — Chic
March 72 p 2
CONSUMER PROTECTION
Banking in the consumer protection age:
Part II — Rich Jan 72 p 2
Banking in the consumer protection age:
Part III — Rich Feb 72 p 3
CORPORATE FINANCE
The pleasant predicament of the corporate
treasurer in 72 — Phila Feb 72 p 14
22
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA
CORPORATE PROFITS
Profit size and measurement — Rich March
72 p 9
Profits and wages: 1965-1971 — Rich
March 72 p 14
Agents and Directors —F R Bull Jan
72 p 83
Board of Directors —Atlanta Feb 72 p 30
List of banks' and branches' — F R Bull
Feb 72 p 180
CREDIT CARDS
Nation-spanning credit cards — San Fran
March 72 p 10
FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS — EARNINGS
In 1971 $3,723 million. Payments to Trea
sury $3,357 - F R Bull Jan 72 p 79
DEBT, PUBLIC
Government debt, money, and economic
activity —St. Louis Jan 72 p 2
FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS —
FISCAL AGENCY DEPT.
Farm Credit Act of 1971 — F R Bull Jan 72
p 40
DISCOUNT OPERATIONS
Eligibility of consumer loans and finance
company paper — F R Bull March 72
p 279
FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS — OPERATIONS
Annual operations — Phila Jan 72 p 21
Operations of the Federal Reserve Bank of
St. Louis —1971 —St. Louis Feb 72 p
13
ECONOMIC STABILIZATION
Phasing the economic future — Kansas City
Jan 72 p 3
1972 Agricultural outlook under the new
economic program — Kansas City Jan
72 p 16
Forecasts 1972: Success for the new eco
nomic program? — Rich Feb 72 p 12
The 1972 national economic plan: An ex
periment in fiscal activism — St. Louis
March 72 p 3
FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD
Membership of the Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System, 1913-72
- F R Bull Jan 72 p 31
FEDERAL RESERVE — FOREIGN EXCHANGE
Treasury and Federal Reserve foreign ex
change operations — N.Y. March 72
p 43
ECONOMIC STABILIZATION
ACT OF 1970
Amendment Dec 22, 1971 — F R Bull Jan
72 p 40
Treasury and Federal Reserve foreign ex
change operations — F R Bull March
72 p 228
FARM CREDIT
1971 farm financial and credit conditions
— Rich Feb 72 p 16
FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM— PUBLICATIONS
PERSPECTIVE available N. Y. Jan 72 p 6
The Fed in print — Phila March 72 p 30
FARM OUTLOOK
Agricultural developments —Chic Jan 72
p 15
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
International developments in a critical
year —Chic Jan 72 p 19
FEDERAL FUNDS MARKET
A market comes of age in the Eleventh
District: Part I — Dallas March 72 p 1
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES
At the Smithsonian —San Fran Feb 72 p 6
International money markets and flexible
exchange rates — F R Bull March 72
p 226
FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS — DIRECTORS
Appointments Jan 1, 1972 of Chairmen,
23
BUSINESS REVIEW
JUNE 1972
GOVERNMENT AGENCY SECURITIES
Federal Agency issues — Rich Jan 72 p 15
Federal Agency issues: Newcomers in the
capital market —Cleve Feb 72 p 3
Has monetarism failed? —The record ex
amined (Francis) —St. Louis March 72
p 32
MORTGAGES
FHA mortgage insurance and subsidies —
Chic March 72 p 8
Mortgage, construction, and real estate
markets — F R Bull March 72 p 201
GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES
Productivity in urban areas (Eastburn) —
Phila Feb 72 p 3
Wage pressures on City Hall: Philadel
phia's experience in perspective —
Phila March 72 p 3
OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS
Record of policy actions, Sept 21, 1971 —
F R Bull Jan 72 p 33
Record of policy actions, Oct 19, Nov 16,
and Dec 14, 1971 - F R Bull Feb 72
p 129
Monetary expansion and Federal Open
Market Committee operating strategy
in 1971 —St. Louis March 72 p 11
Open market operations and the mone
tary and credit aggregates —1971—
F R Bull April 72 p 340
Record of policy actions, Jan 11, 1972 —
F R Bull April 72 p 390
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEX
Consumption of electricity included in
new Texas index —Dallas Jan 72 p 8
Uneven year —San Fran Feb 72 p 12
INSURANCE, FIRE
Hard economics of ghetto fire insurance
— Bost March 72 p 2
INVENTORIES
Inventory investment —A volatile compo
nent of GNP — Kansas City Feb 72 p 3
LUMBER INDUSTRY
Lumbermen's Phase II —San Fran March
72 p 10
OVER-THE-COUNTER MARKET
Criteria for OTC margin stocks April 11,
1972 - F R Bull April 72 p 431
MEAT INDUSTRY
What's happening to meat prices —Chic
Feb 72 p 11
PRICE CONTROL
Price-wage controls: The Israeli experi
ence — Bost Jan 72 p 2
MODELS (STATISTICS)
Optimal distributed lag responses and ex
pectations — F R Bull Feb 72 p 104
Projecting with the St. Louis model —St.
Louis Feb 72 p 20
PRODUCTIVITY
The business situation — N.Y. Feb 72 p 24
RECREATION INDUSTRY
Ski area profitability — Kansas City March
72 p 3
MONETARY POLICY
Policy variables, unemployment, and price
level changes — F R Bull Jan 72 p 16
REGIONAL CHECK PROCESSING CENTERS
Guidelines approved Feb 2, 1972 —F R
Bull Feb 72 p 195
MONEY SUPPLY
A critical look at monetarist economics —
St. Louis Jan 72 p 10
. . . monetarist approach to demand man
agement —St. Louis Jan 72 p 26
Determinants of change in the money
stock 1960-1970— Rich March 72 p 2
REGULATION T
Changes in OTC margin stocks — F R Bull
Feb 72 p 197
Interpretations of Regulation T —F R Bull
April 72 p 398
24
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA
REGULATION Y
Amendment Feb 1, 1972 — F R Bull Feb 72
p 149
STOCK PRICES
Explaining stock prices — Kansas City
March 72 p 10
RESERVE REQUIREMENTS
Need for a uniform system of reserve re
quirements (Morris) — Bost Jan 72 p
14
TIME DEPOSITS
Changes in time and savings deposits JulyOct 1971 - F R Bull Jan 72 p 17
Consumer time and savings deposits at
District member banks —Atlanta Feb
72 p 29
Changes in time and savings deposits at
commercial banks — F R Bull April 72
p 363
ROBERTSON, J. L.
Statement to Congress, March 22, 1972
(Regulation Z) — F R Bull April 72 p
380
SAVINGS DEPOSITS
Money and credit —an overview —Chic
Jan 72 p 24
SELECTIVE CREDIT CONTROLS
Can credit controls be controlled? — Phila
Jan 72 p 3
TRANSFER OF FUNDS
Checks and the payments mechanism —
Atlanta Feb 72 p 18
Proposed regulatory changes —San Fran
March 72 p 12
SHEEHAN, JOHN E.
Appointment to Board of Governors Dec
23, 1971 - F R Bull Jan 72 p 78
UNEMPLOYMENT
The '72 unemployment puzzle — Phila
March 72 p 18
SOCIAL SECURITY
Social security financing — Rich Jan 72 p
VOLUNTARY FOREIGN LOAN
CREDIT RESTRAINT, 1965
Interpretations since Nov 11, 1971 — F R
Bull Jan 72 p 79
Guidelines amendment March 9, 1972 —
F R Bull March 72 p 321
10
SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS
Sources and uses —San Fran Feb 72 p 18
STATE FINANCE
The structure of state revenue —Cleve
March 72 p 15
25
JUNE 1972
BUSINESS REVIEW
FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS AND BOARD O F GOVERNORS
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City
Federal Reserve Station
Kansas City, Missouri 64198
Publications Services
Division of Administrative Services
Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
Washington, D. C. 20551
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
Minneapolis, Minnesota 55440
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Federal Reserve Station
Atlanta, Georgia 30303
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Federal Reserve P.O. Station
New York, New York 10045
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
30 Pearl Street
Boston, Massachusetts 02106
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
925 Chestnut Street
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19101
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Box 834
Chicago, Illinois 60690
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
P.O. Box 27622
Richmond, Virginia 23261
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
P.O. Box 6387
Cleveland, Ohio 44101
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
P.O. Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Station K
Dallas, Texas 75222
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
San Francisco, California 94120
26
FOR THE RECORD
■n
Third Federal
Reserve District
Percent change
SUM M ARY
March 1972
from
mo.
ago
year
ago
Percent change
3
mos.
1972
from
year
ago
March 1972
from
mo.
ago
3
mos.
1972
from
BANKING
(All member banks)
Deposits..........................
Loans.............................
Investments.....................
U.S. Govt, securities.........
Other..........................
Check payments***............
+ 3
+ 1
+ 1
+ 2
+38
- 1
0
+ 2
+ 2
0
+ 3
- 4f
PRICES
Wholesale........................
Consumer........................
‘ Production workers only
“ Value of contracts
‘ “ Adjusted for seasonal variation
01
+
+
+
-
2
1
2
6
2
5
+10
+ 12
+16
+ 1
+25
+ 7f
+ 3{
+ 3
- 2
- 3
+ 4
+10
- 4
+14
+ 11
+17
+ 3
+24
+13f
+ 3t
LOCAL
CHANGES
Standard
Metropolitan
Statistical Areas*
Banking
Employ
ment
Payrolls
Check
Total
Payments** Deposits***
Percent
change
March 1972
from
Percent
change
March 1972
from
Percent
Percent
change
change
March 1972 March 1972
from
from
month year month year month year month year
ago ago
ago ago ago ago ago ago
year
ago
year
ago
Wilmington...........
+ 7
2 + 8
-
+ 2 + 5
+ 4
Atlantic City..........
-
1 -
4
0
+10
+ 3 N/A
+ 1 N/A
+ 9 N/A
+15 +20
- 5 - 7
Bridgeton.............
-
1
3
+ 2
+10
-2 1
-1 6
-
1 + 4
+1 1
+11
+ 2 +10
-
+15
+ 2
MANUFACTURING
Electric power consumed.....
Man-hours, total*...............
Employment, total..............
Wage income*...................
CONSTRUCTION**...............
COAL PRODUCTION.............
Manufacturing
United States
+ 1
+ 1
+ 2
+30
+ 9
+
+
+
+
-
0
2
2
1
2
2
+ 7
+12
+10
+ 1
+16
+10
+10
+ 11
+11
+ 1
+17
+13
0 + 4 + 4
0 + 4 + 4
fl5 SM SA ’s
{Philadelphia
Trenton...............
Altoona................
0
-
-
-
1 -
3
5 +
1 -1 6
-
+ 8 + 4 + 4
7 + 7 +
1 +23
1 +10
Harrisburg............
0
-
1 + 2
Johnstown............
+ 2
-
5
Lancaster.............
+
1 -
1 + 5
+14
+
1 -
Lehigh Valley.........
+
1 -
3
+ 9
-
1 + 7 +
1 +14
Philadelphia..........
0
Reading...............
0
-
+ 7
4
+ 6 + 6 + 5 +29
+ 2
0
+13
2
+
1 + 6
-
1 + 8
-
1 + 9
+ 2
+10
+
1 + 4 +
1 + 7
+ 3 + 6 + 2
+
1 + 5
+ 3
+ 9
Wilkes-Barre.........
+
1 -
2
+ 3
+ 8 + 2
Williamsport..........
-
0
1
+10
1 + 7
0
Scranton..............
York...................
+
+ 3
+
1 +10
+ 4
-
+28
0
7 +32
+15
+ 1 +21
-
-
+ 1 +12
‘ Not restricted to corporate limits of cities but covers areas of one or more
counties.
“ All commercial banks. Adjusted for seasonal variation.
‘ “ Member banks only. Last Wednesday of the month.
@FedFRASER