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JUNE 1952 T H E ♦ BUSINESS REVIEW FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA HOW BANKS ADJUST THEIR RESERVES Management of the reserve account is a skilled art, requiring sharp pencils and agile minds. It has grown more important since higher interest rates make it more expensive to hold excess reserves. This article covers three methods of adjusting reserves: buying and selling Government securities, borrowing from the Reserve Bank, 1 AM and borrowing or lending Federal funds. Use of Government securities has recently become less important. Banks are borrowing more from the Reserve Banks and using Federal funds more extensively. This reflects major changes in Federal Reserve policy. SUSPENSION OF CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT CONTROLS Regulation W was suspended on May 7. This article reviews the reasons for and the effects of the regulation. CURRENT TRENDS Business trends in the Third District were mixed during April. Manufacturing production declined and construction contract awards rose. Business loans were steady in May, following a decline in April. Additional copies of this issue are available upon request to the Department of Research, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Philadelphia 1, Pa. THE BUSINESS REVIEW HOW BANKS ADJUST THEIR RESERVES To the Federal Reserve official, member bank reserves are the focal point of monetary policy; they are the pri mary means of influencing the money supply in order to help maintain economic stability at a high level of activity. To the commercial banker, reserves are at the core of everyday operations; they go up and down when customers deposit or draw out currency, when they de posit or write checks, when the bank sells or buys se curities or engages in countless other transactions which are an ordinary part of its business. Management of the reserve account is one of the skilled arts of commercial banking. It is more difficult now that interest rates on Government securities move freely than when they were being pegged by the Federal Reserve. But management of reserves is more important because higher interest rates make it more expensive to hold excess reserves at the Federal Reserve Bank. Each bank faces different problems in managing its reserve account. No general formula can be applied to all situations. Many banks maintain a cushion of excess WHICH BANKS HOLD EXCESS RESERVES? Member Banks—Third Federal Reserve District (Last Half of April 1952) Banks with total deposits (in m illions)— Under SI Of the total amount, of reserves held by banks in each size group this propor tion was in excess of requirements ........... 27% 81$2 82 85 $5 810 810§20 820$100 Over All 8100 banks 22% 14% 12% 9% 5% 0.4% 3% reserves so that they do not have to make delicate ad justments in their reserve positions. Of the total reserves of member banks in the Third Federal Reserve District in the last half of April, only about 3 per cent was in excess of requirements. However, more than one-fourth of the reserves held by the smallest banks were in ex cess. In contrast, the few very large banks held less than I per cent over requirements. Banks which keep practically all of their available funds fully loaned and invested have several ways of adjusting reserves. These methods are of two general types. The first is a redistribution of reserves, from banks with excess reserves to those in need of additional re serve funds. The second is a change in the total amount of reserves. When the individual banker adjusts his re serves, he is not primarily concerned with whether he effects a redistribution or a change in the total volume of reserves. The Federal Reserve is concerned with both a redistribution and a change in total reserves to the extent that they influence the total money supply and, hence, the total volume of spending. Although there are other ways member banks may ad just their reserves, only three will be discussed here: (1) purchases and sales of Government securities, which, de pending on whether or not they involve Federal Reserve holdings, either shift or change the volume of reserves; (2) member bank borrowing from the Federal Reserve Banks, which affects the total volume of reserves; and (3) Federal funds transactions, in which banks simply shift reserves among themselves by lending and borrow ing reserves for very short periods. Government Securities Throughout World War II and during most of the post war period, banks used Government securities extensively to adjust their reserves. The types of issues they used, however, changed from time to time. In the early war period, banks used mostly Treasury bills. Through sup port of the bill rate at % per cent and through an option by which a bank might buy back at this rate any bills sold to the Reserve Bank, Federal Reserve policy made bills as liquid as excess reserves. Even at the peak of bank holdings of bills in mid-1943, however, bills were only used by the larger banks. Two-thirds of the member banks in the Third Federal Reserve District held no Treasury bills at all. Treasury certificates, and even longer-term issues, gradually supplanted bills as an adjusting medium. As , Page 3 THE BUSINESS REVIEW long as a bank had them, the sale of bills was the cheap est way of getting reserves. But Federal Reserve support of the market made all issues, regardless of length of time to maturity, very liquid. Banks found that they could earn more and still adjust reserves easily by holding longer-term issues. Short-term Governments lost much of their importance as liquid investments for banks. By mid1947, over 90 per cent of the member banks in this dis trict had no bills to use in obtaining reserves; almost half of them had no bills or certificates. WHICH BANKS HOLD WHICH GOVERNMENTS? All Member Banks—Third Federal Reserve District Banks with total deposits (in millions)— $2$5- $10- $20- Over $1-■ U $10 $20 $100 $100 Total $2 $1 This was the percent distribution of total Government security holdings in: Bills ................. ... Certificates .. ... Notes .............. .... Bonds .............. ... 1 4 5 90 2 7 5 86 1 6 6 87 # 9 7 84 8 6 86 2 9 8 81 6 8 3 83 2 8 6 84 Total .... ... 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% June 1949 Bills ................ ... Certificates .. ... ... ... 1 6 2 91 2 7 2 89 2 7 2 89 2 10 3 85 2 11 3 84 5 12 4 79 11 9 1 79 5 10 3 82 in mid-1947. Somewhat over half of the banks still hold no bills and about the same number have no certificates. This is quite different, however, from the 1947 situation already described, and even from the mid-1949 situation, in which eight out of ten banks had no bills and half of them had no certificates. Large banks still hold relatively larger amounts of short-terms than do small banks, but the difference has narrowed somewhat in the past three years. Member Bank Borrowing Member banks are resorting more and more to borrowing from the Reserve Banks as a means of getting reserves. This has been one result of the Treasury-Federal Reserve “accord” on debt management and monetary policies. A major objective of the “accord” is “to permit the short term (government securities) market to adjust to a posi tion at which banks would depend upon borrowing at the Federal Reserve to make needed adjustments in their reserves.” The following chart shows that average daily borrow ings of all member banks in the United States during 1951 were consistently above 1950, and thus far this year are still higher than last year. BORROWING AT FEDERAL RESERVE BANKS Total ___ ... 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% March 1952 Bills ................ Certificates .. Notes .............. Bonds .............. ... ... ... ... 6 3 5 86 6 5 7 82 6 5 10 79 5 8 15 72 6 8 18 68 8 12 20 60 10 9 13 68 8 9 15 68 All member banks II. S. (Daily averages) MILLIONS $ Total .... ... 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% * Less than 1 per cent. A number of things have happened since then to make short-terms more important. The rise in the rates on short-term Governments has made these issues more at tractive for banks to buy and hold. The postwar demand for private credit caused banks to sell large amounts of Government bonds. In refunding most maturing securi ties with short-term issues, the Treasury has increased the concentration of the public debt in short-term securities. And, finally, the removal of the pegs on Government securities once more has made short-terms more liquid than long-terms. These developments have revived the importance of short-term Governments in bank portfolios. Bills and certificates now comprise 17 per cent of the total Govern ment securities held by member banks in the Third Fed eral Reserve District. This compares with 10 per cent 600 400 200 0 The same tendency has prevailed in the Third Federal Reserve District. In 1951 the number of banks accom modated by this Reserve Bank was the largest since 1948, THE BUSINESS REVIEW but the average daily volume of advances outstanding was higher than at any time during or since World War II. During the first four months of this year, however, activity was running below the same period of a year ago. Number of banks accommodated Year 1952 (5 months) 1951 1950 1949 1948 1947 1946 1945 1944 1943 1942 Loans outstanding (daily average in millions of dollars) 86 7.0 11.3 2.7 3.6 7.1 9.9 8.4 8.9 4.7 1.7 0.7 148 103 126 164 153 113 73 69 50 53 Only about one-fourth of all district member banks bor rowed from the Reserve Bank during 1951; but, as the following table shows, all of the largest banks and onehalf of the banks in the next highest size group borrowed. The large banks, of course, obtained larger dollar amounts than the smaller banks, but relatively less compared with their deposits. Most of the borrowing by the very large banks was for very short periods to make up temporary deficiencies. The smaller banks borrowed less frequently but for longer periods, often using Reserve Bank credit to tide them over seasonal peaks of credit demand. MEMBER BANK BORROWING IN 1951 (Third Federal Reserve District) Banks with total deposits (in millions)— Under SI$1 S2 S2$5 $5S10 $10- $20$20 $100 $100 This percentage of all banks in the size group borrowed 13% 17% 20% 28% 22% 49% 100% Each bank, on the average, borrowed this much each time (in thousands)................ $48 $66 $147 $245 $382 $941 or this percentage of total deposits ...................................... 6% 4% 4% 4% 3% 2% 3% They borrowed this number of days during the year........ 39 84 73 82 42 65 29 and for about this number of days each time.................. 15 18 15 12 13 5 2 $8,697 Federal Funds Banks have also been making more extensive use of Fed eral funds transactions—that is, very short-term borrow ing and lending of excess reserves. Generally speaking, there is little information on the nature and volume of these transactions, but considerable information on Federal funds in Philadelphia has recently become available. In February 1949, a number of Philadelphia banks got together and set up a unique system for dealing in Fed eral funds. Short-term interest rates had been in an upward trend for about a year and a half, making it increasingly expensive for banks to hold excess reserves. Some of the larger institutions were anxious to employ their excess reserve funds, whenever they had them, but found it inconvenient to canvass the other banks in Phila delphia to find out which ones might need reserves tem porarily. The banks arranged with a large securities dealer, therefore, to act as a clearing house for information on Federal funds. Now, representatives of nine banks call the dealer on the telephone every morning, stating whether their banks are in the market to borrow or lend Federal funds. Usually, but not always, they indicate the amounts involved. The dealer simply puts borrowers and lenders in touch with each other. There is no charge for this service. Dealers in other cities frequently offer this same service, but Philadelphia is the only place where infor mation is pooled by all the larger banks as a regular part of the daily routine. Most banks review their reserve positions at the open ing of business and try to anticipate the many factors which will affect their position during the day. This is easier for some banks than for others; also, some watch their reserve positions more closely than others. By about noon most banks have telephoned the securities dealer as to whether they want to borrow or lend reserves. Almost invariably the number of banks in a position to lend does not equal the number of banks wanting to borrow; usu ally there are more borrowers than lenders. This may well be because the anxiety of a bank to make up a small deficiency is greater than the desire of a bank to put a small excess of funds to work. Some banks try to bor row to build up excesses on days when rates are low and then run deficiencies and lend when rates are high. Because 75 per cent of borrowed capital can be added to the capital base for excess profits tax purposes, bor rowing of Federal funds has the additional advantage therefore, of reducing tax liabilities. At any rate, banks which indicate they want to borrow usually do bor row; but banks which report a willingness to lend often may not lend—at least in Philadelphia. If banks are Page 5 THE BUSINESS REVIEW unable to find all the funds they need or enough outlets for their excess funds, they often go to the New York market. Philadelphia transactions are made at the inter est rate currently prevailing in New York. . During 1951, about three-quarters of a billion dollars of Federal funds were borrowed within the city by the nine participating banks. The volume of transactions varied widely from day to day. On a few days as much as $10 million changed hands; on about one-fifth of the days there was no business at all. On the average, the volume of transactions approximated $3% million a day. Most frequently one bank was lending and one borrow ing; less frequently two banks were lending and two borrowing. A good part of the time the number of bor rowers and lenders was the same, but fairly often there were more borrowers than lenders. Less frequently there were more lenders than borrowers. Sizes of the paticipating banks vary so widely that loans by several of the smaller banks sometimes cannot make up a deficiency of one large bank. National banks are prohibited from lending more than 10 per cent of their paid-in capital and unimpaired surplus to any one borrower, and from having aggregate borrowings in ex cess of their capital stock. Since transactions in Federal funds are considered borrowing and lending (although commonly referred to as buying and selling), these re strictions—which all participating banks observe—are important factors in the Federal funds market. The lend ing limits of the participating banks range from less than half a million dollars to about $5 million. The greater the differences in the sizes of participating banks the more difficult it is for such a pool to function efficiently. This, plus the fact that Federal funds operations are profit able only when fairly large amounts are involved, suggest that the arrangement is feasible only for groups of large banks. Many small country banks undoubtedly participate in the pool indirectly when they obtain funds from their correspondents which, in turn, borrow in the Philadelphia Federal funds market. This arrangement for pooling information tends to encourage Philadelphia banks to obtain needed reserves or lend out excess reserves in the local market before going to New York. To the extent that it lessens reliance on the New York money market, it contributes in a small way toward reducing the day-to-day in- and out-flows of funds, often an important unstabilizing factor in the New York money market. Page 6 Some Factors Which Commercial Bankers Consider The choices which banks make among the above methods of adjusting reserves are influenced by three closely re lated considerations: (1) the time element, (2) costs and earnings, and (3) liquidity and attitude toward bor rowing. Time element. All banks face the problem of funda mental, long-run movements of funds. Some sections of the country, some towns, some banks grow faster than others. Such changes require permanent rather than tem porary adjustments. Neither borrowing from the Reserve Bank nor Federal funds can be used for permanent ad justments, but Government securities do provide such a medium. It is the shorter-run, temporary movements which we are primarily interested in here, however. Not all banks, as pointed out earlier, attempt to adjust to these shifts. Many simply hold excess reserves sufficient to absorb them. Furthermore, member banks are not required to maintain the prescribed ratio of reserves to deposits every day—only as an average during a certain period. Coun try banks must hold sufficient reserves to meet the pre scribed ratio on the average during a half-month period; all other member banks average their reserves and de posits over a weekly period. This averaging method of computing reserve requirements tends to decrease the amount of adjustment necessary. It enables country banks to ignore day-to-day movements which cancel out over the half-month period. Some of the large banks, however, frequently go out of their way to build up excess re serves or run deficiencies in order to take advantage of expected movements of funds and interest rates later in the reserve period. A number of banks resort to borrowing from the Fed eral Reserve Banks to meet intermediate-term fluctuations such as seasonal credit demands. Some banks in the agricultural sections of Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, for example, frequently borrow from the Philadelphia Reserve Bank in the fall in order to finance farmers who are fattening beef cattle, and in the spring to finance crop farmers. Some banks in seashore resorts borrow in the spring to meet demands for credit by businessmen preparing for the vacation season. The very short-run adjustments are mostly made by larger banks, through borrowing from the Federal Re serve Banks and borrowing Federal funds. At least two THE BUSINESS REVIEW other practices compete to some extent with these meth ods, however. The very large banks sometimes put ex cess funds to work overnight by buying Government securities one day under an agreement to sell back on the next. Transactions under such agreements have no particular rate advantage compared with Federal funds; but because they are considered purchases and sales, they are not limited by the legal provisions which restrict loans to any one borrower. Amounts many times the volume of Federal funds transactions are invested in this way. Banks do not use the reverse procedure to obtain reserves nor do they make such deals among themselves; the purchase-sale agreement is a one-way street as a method of adjusting reserves. Large banks also employ excess reserves by making very short-term loans to Gov ernment security dealers, Government securities serving as collateral. The effect is much the same as a purchasesale agreement, but amounts are limited to 25 per cent of capital and surplus to any one borrower. Costs and earnings. The choice among methods of adjusting reserves also involves weighing costs against earnings. Subject to other considerations, such as liquidity and attitudes toward borrowing, banks attempt to get reserves in the cheapest way possible and to put surplus funds to the most profitable use. A certain amount of expense is involved in keeping close watch over the reserve position and in the process of obtaining needed reserves or investing excess reserves. This element of expense is, to a certain extent, fixed; it does not rise proportionately with increases in the amount of funds involved. Moreover, the amount of funds involved must be fairly large to make close adjustments worthwhile. As an illustration, investment of $1 million for one day at 1 per cent yields only about $28. Large banks find it more to their advantage to manage their reserve accounts closely, therefore, than do the small banks. This is one reason why the smaller banks hold proportionately much larger excess reserves. But the choice of holding excess reserves involves a cost, just as truly as does borrowing from a Reserve Bank or ob taining reserves by any other method. This cost is mea sured by the rate which funds could have earned had they not been held idle. Holding excess reserves is one way of making close adjustments in the reserve account unnecessary, but it is not a cost-less way. The cost of obtaining Federal funds (and the return on them) is the lowest of the three methods discussed. On days when funds are plentiful and demand is light, the Federal funds rate may be as low as 1/16 of 1 per cent. It never drops below the point where the return is less than the cost of paper-work involved, and never rises above the rate at which banks can borrow from the Fed eral Reserve Banks. The discount rate, of course, is set by the Federal Re serve authorities and can be raised or lowered depending on whether the economic situation calls for restriction or expansion of money and credit. The fact that the discount rate has remained unchanged for almost two years while rates on short-term Governments have risen, has increased the attractiveness of borrowing from the Reserve Bank in comparison with selling Governments to get reserves. The cost of adjusting reserves by selling Governments, like the cost of excess reserves, is measured by the income which the securities would have yielded had they been retained. One of the effects of the rise in Government security rates since 1947, first in short-term issues and later in long-term bonds, has been to make it more costly to sell Governments to obtain reserves. The drop in the prices of Governments after the market was unpegged also has increased the cost of obtaining reserves by caus ing a capital loss on sales of Governments. Large banks which follow very short-run movements in the money market closely are quick to take advantage of changing relationships among different rates. If rates on Treasury bills, for example, are above the discount rate, banks may invest surplus funds in bills and then borrow from the Reserve Bank if necessary. They may also invest in bills rather than lend Federal funds at a very low rate. If the Federal funds rate is above 1 per cent, however, there are advantages in lending Federal funds rather than buying bills, for a Federal funds trans action, like any loan or repurchase agreement, is con tractual—the return is certain. But an overnight invest ment in bills can be made unprofitable by the spread between bid and asked prices (now wider than before the “accord”), or by a decline in market prices. The danger of a loss becomes greater in the case of longerterm issues. These are only a few of the cost and earnings considerations requiring sharp pencils and agile minds. Liquidity and attitude toward borrowing. Unpeg ging Government security prices has affected the liquidity of Government securities. Liquidity of an asset depends on the ability to convert it into cash not only quickly Page 7 THE BUSINESS REVIEW but without a significant loss of value. Banks can no longer be certain of getting at least par for securities they sell. In contrast to the wartime situation in which market support made all issues equally liquid, securities closer to maturity are now more liquid than longer-term issues. Although this has tended to some extent to restore the use of short-terms as a medium for adjusting reserves, uncertainties as to changes in market prices tend to favor the use of Federal funds, borrowing from the Federal Reserve Banks, and other such contractual arrangements. Moreover, the rapid expansion of bank holdings of pri vate debt during the postwar period has reduced over-all bank liquidity. Many banks are reluctant to reduce liquidity further by selling Governments. Banks have long been loath to be in debt for extended periods. They prefer to borrow for temporary needs only and to pay off the debt as soon as possible. Over the years this attitude has grown into a strong tradition against borrowing. Conclusions Management of the reserve account is one of the difficult arts of commercial banking. Many banks avoid the need for making close adjustments by holding large excess reserves. Banks which do make adjustments—mostly the larger institutions—have several methods available. Of the three methods discussed here, the use of Government securities has recently become less important, despite a revival of the role of short-term Governments in bank portfolios. Use of borrowing from the Reserve Banks and use of Federal funds, on the other hand, have increased. This reflects, to a considerable extent, changes in Federal Reserve policies. The Federal Reserve is primarily interested in the total quantity of reserves. For changes in the total volume of reserves influence the total volume of bank deposits and, in turn, spending. Since the “accord” between the Treas ury and the Federal Reserve was reached over a year ago, reserves have been less freely available. Because prices of Government securities now move freely in response to supply and demand conditions, banks have been dis couraged from adjusting reserves by selling Governments. In an unsupported Government securities market, banks must find buyers other than the Federal Reserve. Any reserves they obtain then constitute merely a shift from other holders, not an increase in the total volume of reserves. With reserves less freely available from other sources, banks have borrowed more extensively from the Reserve Banks. This has definite advantages from the Federal Reserve point of view. When a bank borrows from the Reserve Bank the addition to reserves is much less likely to be permanent than when a bank sells Governments to the Federal Reserve. The reason is not only that banks dislike to be in debt for extended periods but also that the borrowing transaction is for a short, fixed period and involves close contact between the member bank and the Reserve Bank; excessive borrowing can be discour aged directly, if necessary. The increased use of Federal funds also reflects the tightening in reserves. Banks have become more anxious to economize the reserves available and to avoid the ex pense of holding excess reserves. SUSPENSION OF CONSUMER INSTALLMENT CREDIT CONTROLS On May 7, the Board of Governors of the Federal Re serve System suspended Regulation W, the rules govern ing the extension of consumer instalment credit. The suspension was not required by Congress. It was the Board’s decision, made under its discretionary powers. The basic legislation authorizing the Federal Reserve System to regulate instalment loans and sales—the De fense Production Act of 1950—has remained in effect and is still on the books as of the middle of June. Page 8 Regulation W, like many other measures which restrict long-established business practices, is a controversial mea sure. The regulation is a relatively new addition to the arsenal of anti-inflation weapons and it has been difficult to gauge its effect and to measure the seriousness of the administrative problems involved. Unfortunately, as long as the international situation makes the threat of infla tion a continuing problem, consumer credit controls may yet have to be reimposed some time in the future. Now THE BUSINESS REVIEW that the regulation is not in effect, however, and we have reached what appears to be a lull in the upward move ment of prices, it may be possible more calmly to ap praise consumer credit controls as an instrument of eco nomic stabilization. This is not the first time that lenders and merchants have witnessed the suspension of Regulation W. The first suspension occurred in November 1947, when many of the World War II controls expired. It was reinstated in September 1948, following a period of rising prices, and again expired in June 1949. The present suspension fol lows a 20-month period of regulation which began shortly after the outbreak of the Korean war. While the regula tion was in effect the terms under which consumer credit could be extended were sometimes relaxed and sometimes tightened. Although the particular dates of expiration and re-imposition have been the result of a combination of factors, the on-again, off-again pattern of consumer credit regulation nevertheless provides an important key to the reasons for Regulation W and to an evaluation of its usefulness. The Reasons for Regulation W The regulation has been imposed and tightened at times when prices were rising and more inflation threatened. In 1941 and 1950, Regulation W was imposed in conection with intense defense and war efforts. In 1948 its imposition was related to the extraordinary situation pre vailing during the aftermath of war. Generally speaking, Regulation W has been relaxed and suspended at times when it was felt that inflationary pressures had subsided; thus Regulation W—a so-called selective credit regula tion—has been designed to help fight inflation in con junction with other fiscal-monetary and direct controls. It should be considered in the light of the special circum stances—chiefly emergency situations—in which it has been used. It is not an attempt to prescribe standards of business practice or to maintain some pre-determined level of credit outstanding. It is with current changes in the level of credit outstanding and their relationship to current market conditions that the administrators of Regulation W are concerned. This is another key to an understanding of consumer credit controls. During periods of inflation, the amount of consumer credit on the books is not nearly so important as the speed with which the total is increasing. At all times, new loans are being made and old loans are being paid off. When consumers’ incomes are rising and employment prospects are good, there is a tendency for new loans to exceed pay-offs. When this situation is combined with threats of shortages and rising prices, as was the case at the outbreak of the Korean war, the-demand for con sumer credit becomes very strong and the total outstand ing rises rapidly. This simply means that in addition to their growing incomes, new credit is giving consumers more buying power. When there is room for expansion of production in our economy this additional stimulation can be constructive. There is, in fact, little doubt that the institution of instalment credit has helped to create the mass markets for durable consumers’ goods which manu facturers require in order to put a product into mass production. But when industry is straining under a de fense production program, when steel, copper, aluminum and other basic materials are short, when labor is scarce —and all of these things were true at the beginning of the current defense effort—then there is no possibility of expanding production for the purpose of turning out more washing machines and automobiles. Additional buying power available to consumers as the result of credit expansion under these conditions creates intense competition for relatively short supplies of merchandise. Prices are likely to shoot up, not only for goods at retail but, as distributors and manufacturers scramble for addi tional goods to restock depleted inventories, at all levels of the production and distribution process. Increased consumer credit is regarded as new buying power, not merely as money transferred from one buyer to another, by reason of the fact that most of it comes ultimately from the commercial banking system, thus contributing to an expansion of deposits and of the total supply of money. The banks make many loans directly but they also provide a large amount of the funds used by finance companies and loan companies, and they fre quently provide working capital which enables retailers to carry their own instalment or charge accounts. Even those loans which are made out of equity funds or bor rowed savings may increase the total stream of spending in the economy, since these funds otherwise might not have gone into the market places so quickly and might have been used for the purchase of Government securities. Recent Experience During 1950, instalment credit increased by $2.6 bil lion, most of the gain coming between April and October. Page 9 THE BUSINESS REVIEW Dollar-wise, this was a very rapid expansion—the most rapid in our history. This is not to say that the increase in instalment credit was primarily responsible for the inflation which took place during that period. A look at the statistics will suffice to show that the main respon sibility must be elsewhere, among a combination of many factors. It cannot be denied, however, that once it was started the buying spree and the price rises were accen tuated by the creation of new consumer buying power, and economic and financial difficulties of the defense effort were thus intensified. The same effects occur during any business upturn, whether it is induced by the danger of war or not, but the likelihood of intensive periods of scare buying during periods of international tension aggravates the situation. It is this problem to which Regulation W primarily has been directed. The increase in required down pay ments and monthly payments, which the regulation put into effect, would have had a tendency to reduce credit outstanding even if the rate of new instalment sales and loans had remained unchanged. The probability is that the tighter requirements actually delayed a large number of sales of consumers’ durable goods during the periods they were in effect. A precise determination of the impact of Regulation W is impossible because of side effects which are not measurable and the unknown influences of other factors which contributed to the same results. The pay-off, however, is the change in regulated credit out standing and in this regard the experience of recent months is significant. The regulation which went into effect in September 1950 covered consumer instalment credit only—loans repayable in two or more scheduled payments, and in stalment credit arising out of the sale of listed consumers’ goods. Charge accounts and single-payment loans were not affected. After rising rapidly during 1949 and the first, nine months of 1950, instalment credit outstanding leveled off during October 1950—the month following the effective date of the regulation—and moved irregularly downward until August of 1951, after liberalized terms prescribed by Congress went into effect. There was a mod erate increase from that time until the end of the year. During the first quarter of 1952, another decline oc curred, followed by a subsequent upturn in April. As the chart shows, the rate of increase in loan credit outstanding was slowed after the regulation went into effect, but the total continued to rise. The declines Page 10 CONSUMER INSTALMENT CREDIT OUTSTANDING BILLIONS $ TOTAL INSTALMENT CREDIT : INSTALMENT SALES CREDIT occurred entirely in instalment sale credit relating to sales of automobiles, home improvements, television sets, and other appliances. What has happened to the lines on the chart since the regulation was suspended on May 7 is not yet known. There are fragmentary reports that easier credit terms have stimulated sales in certain lines. The Effects of Regulation W On its face, this is a rather impressive anti-inflationary record. Coming at a strategic point—the consumer level —there is no doubt that another billion dollars of buying power, more or less, would have made the situation more difficult. However, this record should be qualified some what. No one would argue, of course, that in a $330 bil lion economy the relatively small amount of additional credit which Regulation W prevented was the one factor which stemmed the rising tide of prices. Moreover, there is some question about the extent to which Regulation W was aided, both by business factors and other controls, in reducing instalment credit. To some extent, consumer purchases of durable goods were probably due to fall off during 1951, anyway. Obviously, there had been many THE BUSINESS REVIEW instances of forward buying and over-buying during the early days of the Korean conflict, and some dampening of the enthusiasm for buying was likely regardless of the credit restrictions. To some extent too, other anti-infla tion measures had some indirect influence. Wage and price controls may have reduced expectations of higher incomes and prices. The other actions of the Federal Re serve—the withdrawal of fixed price supports for Govern ment securities, for instance—created a business atmos phere that was not conducive to inflationary financial expansion. Alternative Controls This raises a further question with regard to the need for Regulation W. Assuming the desirability of utilizing free market forces to the fullest possible extent to bring about necessary economic adjustments, would it not be better to leave the fight against inflation completely to increased taxation or to the indirect monetary controls (such as variations in the discount rate and open market operations) exercised by the Federal Reserve System? It is generally agreed that these measures, directed as they are to the control of the volume of money and spending, get to the heart of the inflation problem. No anti-infla tion program is likely to succeed without their effective use. Why become involved with the administrative prob lems incident to the regulation of thousands of financial institutions and merchants? This is a question that will receive continuing study. In general, the answer is that the control of inflation during emergency situations requires a flexible and many-sided program. There are limits beyond which taxation affects incentives; more over, increased tax rates often cannot go into effect as quickly as may be necessary. The general credit instru ments available to the Federal Reserve can be powerful but their use has widespread ramifications which must be taken into consideration. It is desirable that they be supplemented by measures whose impact on the economy is narrower, less powerful. In this connection also the point has been made that the nature of consumer credit makes it relatively unresponsive to over-all changes in credit policy. If it is deemed necessary to slow the expansion of consumer credit and a more specific meas ure such as Regulation W is not available, then a more aggressive use of general controls than is consistent with other objectives might be required and one objec tive or the other might have to be sacrificed; and if the full complement of fiscal-monetary controls cannot be fully effective, then there is a tendency to place greater reliance on direct wage, price, and rationing controls which are undoubtedly more burdensome and more likely to create undesirable economic distortions than even the most specific credit regulation. What Regulation W Is Not Regulation W has received some support on the grounds that it keeps credit merchants from granting instalment terms that are too lenient and does away with competi tion in “easy credit.” This is not the purpose of the regu lation: it is not a “fair trade” device. The extensive use of unsound credit terms would be a matter for con cern if it should develop; but Regulation W was not concerned with it and the terms offered by individual lenders or merchants were not in themselves a considera tion in deciding to impose or suspend controls. Nor does Regulation W attempt to set forth sound lending stand ards as such. The effect of setting a limit on terms is to narrow the differences among lenders, but it is the over all situation, not the differences, with which the admin istrators of the regulation were concerned. There have been some who regarded Regulation W primarily as a device for correcting the inventory posi tion of certain consumers’ goods. The issue was never stated so crudely as this; yet many argued that the regulation might well be made more stringent when inventories were depleted and that it had to be made more lenient when inventories were rising. It is true that the inventory situation is one of the factors that must be taken into consideration in deciding whether to impose stricter instalment credit terms or to relax them. But it is only one of many factors, for the Federal Reserve is primarily concerned with the supply of credit in relation to the needs of the entire economy. Credit is fluid. Once created, regardless of its origin, it moves into every part of the financial mechanism. The effect of increasing in ventories in any particular line has to be measured against the general economic situation. This became a difficult problem in 1951 when, despite rising stocks of certain consumers’ goods, the outlook for defense needs was such that creation of additional consumer credit ap peared to be unwise. The accumulation of inventory at some times may, in fact, be an indication of the effective ness of the regulation and a wholly desirable development both for the purpose of storing goods for future use and Page 11 THE BUSINESS REVIEW diverting productive facilities to defense production. In ventory alone is therefore an unsatisfactory guide for consumer credit regulation. The Future of Regulation W The full story on consumer credit regulation cannot yet be written. The experience of recent years is insufficient to allow such controls to be given the status accorded the long-used general instruments of Federal Reserve policy; yet Regulation W has been successful enough to warrant further consideration for its use, particularly PEN Page 12 THE THIRD FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT during periods of international stress when consumer reactions to events can be sudden and sharp. By itself, its usefulness would be highly questionable. As a sup plement to a well-integrated, fiscal-monetary, anti-infla tion program, it appears to play a significant role, and the Board of Governors has requested that the temporary powers to regulate instalment credit contained in the Defense Production Act be retained. Future use of Regulation W requires a careful balance of the ad ministrative difficulties it entails against the needs of the developing economic situation. THE BUSINESS REVIEW CURRENT TRENDS Business in the Third District continued to drift rather aimlessly during April. Declines in some lines were about bal anced by gains in others. The pace of activity in Pennsylvania factories slackened noticeably in April. After being steady for four months, industrial output fell considerably during the month. All industries but one—lumber—shared in the decline, with the major decreases being registered by apparel and furniture. Many of the declines were of a seasonal nature, but the labormanagement dispute in steel also was a factor. Employment showed little change, but a reduction in the work-week was evidenced in lower payrolls. Consumer buying was less active in April. Department store sales, after a special adjustment for the later Easter, were below those of the preceding month as well as the previous year. Inventories held by department stores remained steady and at the end of the month were 16 per cent under last year’s high level. The volume of construction contract awards registered a sharp gain for the month but failed to equal that of a year ago. All major fields shared in the increase over March, but only public works and utilities showed improvement over 1951. The consumer price index for Philadelphia advanced for the first time in many months. Higher food prices were pri marily responsible for the rise. Business loans of weekly reporting member banks in the Third Federal Reserve District declined 6 per cent during the first five months this year, as compared with an increase of 15 per cent during the same period in 1951. For the coun try as a whole, business loans have declined 5 per cent thus far this year as against a 7 per cent rise in the first five months of 1951. The nation s privately held money supply rose $800 million in April as Treasury expenditures in excess of receipts shifted funds from Government to private accounts. Third Federal Reserve District United States Per cent change Per cent change SUMMARY April 1952 from 4 mos. 1952 from year year ago ago April 1952 from mo. ago year ago 4 mos. 1952 from year ago OUTPUT Manufacturing production. . _ 4* _ 7* - 3* -2 Construction contracts. . . 4-31 - 8 -21 4-18 Coal mining.......... 4- 6 4-11 4- 3 -1 - 4 -14 - 8 -1 -9 -2 -1 - 3 -3 -2 +1 - 1 -16 -5 mo. ago EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME Factory employment.............. - 1* - 5* — 4* Factory wage income.............. - 5* - 4* 4- l* TRADE** Department store sales..... - 7 Department store stocks. . . . 0 - 3 -16 - 5 BANKING (All member banks) Deposits........................................ Loans.......................... Investments........................... .. U.S. Govt, securities............ Other............................... 44- PRICES Wholesale............................. Consumers.............................. 4- It 4- 2f 4- 2t 0 1 1 1 1 OTHER Check payments....................... 4- 1 Output of electricity............... - 3 4- 9 + 6 + 1 - 1 4- 8 + 2 4- 2 4- 3 4- 7 0 - 2 4- 7 4 1 4- 2 ♦Pennsylvania ♦♦Adjusted for seasonal variation. fPhiladelphia. Factory* Department Store Check Payments Employ ment Payrolls Sales Stocks Per cent change April 1952 from Per cent change April 1952 from Per cent change April 1952 from Per cent change April 1952 from mo. ago year ago mo. ago year ago mo. ago mo. ago Allentown............................ -2 - 3 -5 - 5 Harrisburg.......................... LOCAL CONDITIONS year ago year ago Per cent change April 1952 from mo. ago year ago o -f l 0 + 4 -3 4- 6 Lancaster............................. 0 - 3 -1 - 3 - 7 4-U 4-7 -12 4-3 4-20 Philadelphia....................... -1 - 3 -3 0 4- 3 4- 4 4-1 -17 4-2 4- 1 Reading................................ -2 -12 -6 -19 4-17 - 2 4-7 -18 4-2 4- 1 +1 - 5 +1 0 —7 - 1 4- 5 -1 +1 -1 -1 4-1 4 + + -14- 5 7 4 3 8 +5 +8 +4 +4 4-7 0 +1 4- 3 4-3 Wilkes-Barre...................... -1 - 3 - 9 -1 4- 8 4-4 York...................................... -1 - 1 —6 - 3 - 2 + 8 4-17 + 1 + 6 — 12 4-4 4- 2 4- 1 4-3 -23 -7 4- 7 4-8 - 7 4-12 4-10 4-3 -13 •Not restricted to corporate limits of cities but covers areas of one or more counties. Page 13 THE BUSINESS REVIEW EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME MEASURES OF OUTPUT Per cent change 4 mos. April 1952 1952 from from month year year ago ago ago (1939 avg. = 100) MANUFACTURING fPa.)...................... Durable goods industries.......................... Nondurable goods industries................... - 4 - 5 - 4 - 7 - 4 -10 - 3 + i - 8 Foods................................................................ Tobacco............................................................ Textiles............................................................. Apparel............................................................. Lumber............................................................. Furniture......................................................... Paper................................................................. Printing and publishing............................ Chemicals........................................................ Petroleum and coal products.................. Ruhher............................................................. Leather............................................................. Stone, clay and glass.................................. Primary metal industries.......................... Fabricated metal products....................... Machinery (except electrical)................. Electrical machinery................................... Transportation equipment........................ Instruments and related products......... Misc. manufacturing industries.............. - 1 - 8 - 6 -10 0 -10 - 3 - 2 - 3 - 1 - 8 - 7 - 3 - 6 - 4 - 3 - 4 - 7 - 2 - 3 - 2 -10 -20 -21 -11 - 7 -15 - 3 - 2 - 3 - 8 -11 -14 - 5 -11 - 2 + 2 + 12 - 3 -19 - 3 - 4 -19 -15 -11 - 6 -12 - 1 + i 0 + 3 -12 -10 + 2 — 6 + 2 + 5 + 25 + 2 -18 COAL MINING (3rd F. R. Dist.)*____ Anthracite....................................................... Bituminous...................................................... + 6 + 9 -10 +n + 16 -15 + 3 + 4 - 6 Primary metal CRUDE OIL (3rd F. R. Dist.)**......... - 2 - 2 - 1 Machinery (except CONSTRUCTION—CONTRACT A WAR US (3rd F. R. Dist.Jt............ Residential...................................................... Nonresident ial............................................. Public works and utilities...................... + 31 + 34 + 18 + 49 - 8 -15 -26 + 87 -21 -30 -33 + 38 All manufacturing.. . . Durable goods Per cent change from April 1952 % chg. from year ago April 1952 % chg. from year ago - 4 $64.14 + i $1.64 + 5 - 1 70.29 + i 1.75 + 4 - 5 + 1 - 8 - 6 -11 + 1 - 9 + 4 - 6 -20 -19 - 7 54.53 56.59 33.15 52.38 38.73 47.11 + + 0 7 3 2 8 3 1.45 1.41 .96 1.41 1.15 1.14 + + + + + + 365 404 -12 - 3 - 3 - 9 56.90 64.11 + 7 0 1.31 1.57 + 4 + 8 - 2 - 8 322 410 - 2 - 4 + 2 _ 4 77.14 69.20 + 5 + 4 2.00 1.62 + 7 + 3 0 -2 -1 + 1 - 3 - 9 433 711 214 0 - 7 - 7 0 0 - 8 83.07 74.48 44.57 - 1 + 3 + i 2.07 1.94 1.22 + 3 + 11 + 1 131 0 -11 367 - 3 -11 63.96 0 1.64 + 4 142 -1 0 376 - 7 - 4 73.90 - 4 1.91 + i 172 -1 - 8 478 - 4 - 8 65.94 0 1.64 + 4 243 0 0 703 - 3 + 3 73.34 + 2 1.72 + 5 272 -1 0 670 - 3 + 12 68.96 + 12 1.72 + 11 174 -3 + 8 483 - 8 + 14 78.69 1.92 + 3 186 0 0 545 - 2 0 66.66 - 1 1.64 + 2 124 0 -17 335 - 4 -14 55.41 + 3 1.35 + 6 mo. ago mo. ago year ago -1 - 5 385 - 5 -1 - 2 453 - 5 104 117 90 68 123 143 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 -10 - 2 - 3 -19 -12 -10 296 295 227 199 337 387 118 136 -7 0 - 9 - 9 118 141 0 -4 157 237 82 135 166 Furniture and lumber Printing and............... Petroleum and coal Stone, clay and Fabricated metal Electrical *IJ.S. Bureau of Mines. **American Petroleum Inst. Bradford field. fSource: F. W. Dodge Corporation. Changes computed from 3-month moving averages, centered on 3rd month. Per cent change from April 1952 year (Inago dex) 1952 (Index) Nondurable goods Transportation Instruments and related products. . . Misc. manufacturing industries................... Average Hourly Earnings Average Weekly Earnings Payrolls Employment Pennsylvania Manufacturing Industries* 4 6 4 2 1 5 ♦Production workers only. TRADE Per cent change Third F. R. District Indexes: 1947-49 Avg. = 100 Adjusted for seasonal variation April 1952 April 1952 from (Index) month year ago ago 4 mos. 1952 from year ago -7 +4 0* - 3 - 4 - 3* -5 -1 +9* 0 +4 + 1* -16 - 9 -16* SALES Department stores............ Women’s apparel stores. Furniture si ores................. STOCKS Department stores............ Women’s apparel stores. Furniture stores................. 102 90 112p 109 Recent Changes in Department Store Sales in Central Philadelphia Week Week Week Week Week ended ended ended ended ended May May May May June 10.................................................................... 17.................................................................... 24.................................................................... 31.................................................................... 7...................................................................... ♦Not adjusted for seasonal variation. Page 14 p—preliminary. Per cent change from year ago 0 -4 +2 +4 -6 Deparlmental Sales and Stocks of Independent Department Stores Third F. R. District Sales Stocks (end of month) % chg. % chg. April 4 mos. 1952 1952 from from % chg. Ratio to sales April 1952 ^months’ supply) from April ago ago ago 1952 1951 + 9 - 5 -19 3.2 4.2 + 7 -13 + 7 +27 + 14 +21 -14 +25 - 6 -15 0 - 1 0 - 2 -15 - 4 -18 -27 - 9 -10 - 9 -16 -24 -29 3.6 4.6 4.2 2.8 1.9 4.3 5.1 3.2 4.6 5.4 5.0 3.9 2.4 6.3 5.7 5.3 + 15 - 3 + 32 + 24 +20 -20 + 25 + + - 0 4 5 2 3 8 3 -20 -42 -12 -10 -27 -19 -16 1.9 3.0 1.7 1.2 2.2 3.7 2.3 2.7 5.1 2.6 1.7 3.5 3.7 3.5 + 8 + 1 THE BUSINESS REVIEW CONSUMER CREDIT BANKING Sales Sale Credit Receiv ables (end of month) % chg. % chg. % chg. April 4 mos. April 1952 1952 1952 from from from yearago year ago year ago Third F. R. District Department stores Cash................................... Charge account...................... Instalment account................. +10 +10 + 9 Furniture stores Cash........................................ Charge account........................ Instalment account................. - 6 -14 + 12 - 2 - 5 - 7 - 3 -16 +10 +7 -6 MONEY SUPPLY AND RELATED ITEMS United States (billions $) year 183.8 + .8 + 10.4 Demand deposits, adjusted................. Time deposits.......................... Currency outside banks........................ 95.1 62 8 25.9 + .3 + .2 + 5.6 + 3.5 + 1.3 Turnover of demand deposits................. 21.3* -1.4* - 5.3* 132.3 - .2 + 7.0 13.7 + .1 + 1.1 19.9 - .3 + 1.0 19.1 .8 — Money supply, privately owned. . , Commercial bank earning assets............ +2 Member bank reserves held.............. Required reserves (estimated)................... Excess reserves (estimated).......... Loans made Loan Credit Third F. R. District % chg. % chg. % chg. April 4 mos. April 1952 1952 1952 from from from yearago yearago year ago + 33 + 33 + 27 + 38 + 39 + 34 + 16 +20 - 4 + 14 + 16 + 7 PRICES Monthly Wholesale and Consumer Prices April 1952 (Index) Wholesale prices—United States (1947-49 = 100). . . Farm products................... Foods................................ Other.............................. Consumer prices (1935-39 = 100) United States..................... Philadelphia............................ Food.................................. Clothing................................. Fuel................................... Homefurnishings..................... Other.......................................... Weekly Wholesale Prices—U.S. (Index: 1947-49 average =100) Week Week Week Week ended ended ended ended May May May June 13............................ 20.............. 27............ 3..................... modities month ago year ago 112 109 108 113 0 0 -1 0 -4 -7 -3 -3 190 189 228 198 154 213 174 +1 +1 +2 -1 0 -1 0 +3 +2 +4 -3 +1 -6 +2 products Weekly reporting banks—leading cities United States (billions $): Loans— Commercial, industrial and agricultural. Security................................................................. Real estate............................................................ To banks............................................................... All other......................................................... Total loans—gross. Investments................. Deposits........................ Third Federal Reserve District (millions $): Loans— Commercial, industrial and agricultural. . Security............................................................. Real estate.............................................................. To banks................................................... ! All other............................................. Total loans—gross. Investments................. Deposits.......................... Member bank reserves and related items United States (billions $).Member bank reserves held.......................... Reserve Bank holdings of Governments. Gold stock............................................................ Money in circulation....................................... Treasury deposits at Reserve Banks.... essed foods + '3 _ 3 * Annual rate for the month and per cent changes from month and year ago at leading cities outside N. Y. City. OTHER BANKING DATA Per cent change from 3 0 Changes in reserves during 5 weeks ended April 30, reflected the following: Effect on reserves Increase in Reserve Bank loans......................................... +.5 Net payments to the Treasury.............................’*’[*[ _ ‘4 Decrease in Reserve Bank holdings of Governments. — .2 Decrease in other Reserve Bank credit........................... — .1 Increase of currency in circulation...............................’ ’ _j Change in reserves................................................................. Consumer instalment loans Commercial banks............ Industrial banks and loan companies. . . Small loan companies.......... Credit unions............... Changes in— five weeks Loans............................................ U.S. Government securities.............. Other securities.......................... Loan bal ances out standing (end of month) April 30 1952 May 21 1952 Changes in— four weeks year 20.6 2.3 5.7 .5 6.1 - .2 0 0 + .1 + .1 +1.5 + .3 + .2 0 + .2 35.2 38.7 83.2 0 + .3 + .8 + 2.2 +1.8 +4.3 790 68 132 13 405 + ~ + + + + + 1 7 1 1 4 35 17 8 6 16 1,408 1,521 3,248 + 8 - 10 - 23 + 66 - 13 + 46 20.1 22.3 23.3 28.5 .4 + .3 - .1 0 + .3 - .5 +1.5 - .1 +1.5 +1.2 - .4 + 25 + 2 - 41 -139 - 3.4% + + + + Federal Reserve Bank of Phila. (millions $): 110.1 109.3 112.8 Federal Reserve notes................. Member bank reserve deposits. Gold certificate reserves............ Reserve ratio (%).......................... 1,412 1,720 888 1,245 46.4% 12 85 25 20 .3% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 15