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K^# hk THE BUSINESS REVIEW •S?8h3£ FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA r ••<ui(4i Victory in Europe produced immediate re percussions on the home front, although the full impact of the shift to a one-front war and its possibilities for expanding the civilian economy may not become apparent for some time. Shortly after Germany’s unconditional surrender, pro duction, manpower, and stabilization authorities moved to implement reconversion procedures consistent with the requirements of continuing warfare in the Pacific. Munitions cut-backs, which prior to V-E Day had been confined largely to planned increases, were applied promptly to current rates of output in a limited number of categories. As munitions making is not scheduled to decline precipitously, it is unlikely that the pro duction of civilian goods can be resumed on a large scale for some months. But some sweeping adjustments are indicated later this year, when the cumulative effects of small but progressive cut-backs will permit increasing numbers of producers to reconvert all or part of their facil ities and acquire raw material inventories suit able for the manufacture of peacetime goods. Over much of this transition period, when pro duction is being re-balanced to meet the smaller needs of a one-front war and the requirements of an expanding civilian economy, considerable fluctuation may be expected in the over-all rate of industrial output. JUNE 1, 1945 Europe. A reduction of 12 per cent in munitions contracts was announced simultaneously, imple menting a resumption of civilian goods output to the extent of the materials, facilities, and man power thus released. Subsequent expansion of the reconversion program will be possible within the framework of continuing cut-backs, which are expected to reduce munitions output some what more than one-third by the end of this year. The War Manpower Commission, in reviewing labor markets in the light of declining muni tions requirements, has reclassified several crit ical shortage areas, including Philadelphia, into less urgent categories. The 48-hour week, hir ing ceilings, and certain other emergency meas ures will be retained temporarily in Philadel phia, and throughout most of the other seven counties comprising this manpower area. The war transfer plan, whereby workers had been shifted to war plants from less essential industry was suspended locally shortly after V-E Day and wherever employment conditions permitted, employees were allowed to return to their old jobs. Plans now are being made to simplify na tional manpower regulations, retaining after July 1 only controls consistent .with reduced munitions requirements and the prevention of large-scale unemployment during reconversion. Among the measures taken by stabilization By revoking in whole or in part a series of authorities to facilitate reconversion was a di limitation orders which had forbidden the manu rective from the War Labor Board authorizing facture of a wide range of civilian items using management and labor to bargain collectively war metals, the War Production Board set its for the establishment of wage rates for jobs crestamp of approval on industrial reconversion (Continued on page 11) within a few days of the end of the war in Page One The Bulge in Real Estate Values A residential property built in a suburb north of Philadelphia at a cost of $16,000 in 1937 was sold recently at $23,000. In Wilmington, twostory houses which found no buyers at $3,000 before the war are now selling at $5,000. In the same city a commercial property, centrally located in the business district, which drew no bids at $400,000 some years ago, sold this year at $465,000. A seashore property which sold for $7,500 just a year ago was resold more re cently at $12,500. In Lancaster, a residence built to sell at $6,750 in 1939 was sold last week for $13,000. A farm near Trenton sold at $38,000 about a year ago and was since resold at $50,000. This is not hearsay; they are bona fide transactions. Has the real estate boom started or is it merely a recovery from hereto fore excessively depressed values? The Farm Real Estate Market Prices of farm real estate throughout the United States are now 52 per cent above their pre-war level. Although the pre-war base was somewhat lower than the level before the First World War, there is an ominous parallel be tween rising farm real estate values in the present war and those in the last. Up to March 1945, farm real estate prices, as shown in the accompanying chart, were practically repeat ing their performance during the First World War. real estate in March 1945 were 43 per cent above their pre-war levels, and in New Jersey they have gone up 32 per cent. In each of the three states the rise is practically the same as it was in the last World War, although the up turn in each instance started at a somewhat lower level than in the pre-World War I period. A survey based upon reports from scores of bankers and others familiar with the situation throughout the district reveals that farm real estate prices in various counties have gone up from 10 to 50 per cent since the beginning of the war. This includes all classes of farms, ranging in price up to $600 an acre at present values. The wide range of wartime prices de pends on such things as the type of farm, its location, whether the purchaser is a farmer who knows land values or a city buyer who may not, and whether the farm is bought for purposes of operation, investment, or specu lations. There is apparently no well-defined relation ship between the amount of farmland inflation and such factors as location, farm products, or pre-war value per acre. Nearness to large population centers is not a predominant factor —farm properties rose only 10 per cent in Camden County and 50 per cent in Bucks County which is also adjacent to Philadelphia. Some of the largest increases in farm values occurred in the more remote up-state counties, In view of the collapse of farm real estate such as Center and Mifflin. Neither is the type values after the last war, which brought ruin of farm output a principal factor, because dairy and hardship to thousands of farm owners, products and vegetables are the leading prod there is sufficient reason to be concerned about ucts in counties with both the highest and lowthe present rise in real estate and the possi Farm Real Estate bility that it may lead to a repetition of distress Appreciation in Selected Counties of liquidation and widespread foreclosures. In the Third District creased market activity and high prices are country-wide. In every state, without excep Value per acre Principal sources of of farmland and farm inco me—1939 % increase County tion, land prices are now substantially above buildings— farm value and State Second 1939t First 1940-1945* their pre-war levels. In half of the states the Poultry $101 and over Vegetables 50 increase has been in excess of 50 per cent, and Dairy prod. Field crops 26 — 50 30-60 101 and over Field crops Dairy prod. in nine states over 70 per cent. The greatest Lancaster, Pa.... 30-50 26 — 50 Dairy prod. Field crops 25-30 Poultry Field crops 76 — 100 25-30 appreciation has occurred in the South. 101 and over Dairy prod. Poultry 25 Montgomery Pa.. Bradford, Pa........ In the Third Federal Reserve District the price rise in farm properties has been slightly below the average for the United States, but there is danger of inflation here as elsewhere. In Pennsylvania and Delaware, prices of farm Page Two Mercer, N. J......... Camden, N. J.. . . Burlington, N. J.. Lebanon, Pa......... 20-50 20-50 15 10 w 10 r* 10 Dairy prod. Dairy prod. Field crops Vegetables Dairy prod. Dairy prod. Poultry 26 — 50 Field crops 51 — 75 Dairy prod. ’r 101 and over Poultry \ 101 and over Poultry 51 — 75 Livestock ' 76 — 100 * Baaed upon reports from bankers, real estate dealers, and others, t U. S. Department of Agriculture. FARM LAND VALUES IN TWO WORLD WARS (AS OF MARCH 1 EACH YEAR) PERCENT UNITED STATES PERCENT PENNSYLVANIA 1912-34 1935-45 1935-45 (1935-39 = 100) 1912-34 1935 1910 1940 1915 1945 1920 1950 1925 1935 1940 NEW JERSEY 1945 1920 1950 1925 DELAWARE 1935-45 (1935-39=100) 1935-45 (1935-39 = 100) 1912-34 1912-34 (1912-14=100) 80 1935 1910 1940 1915 1945 1920 1950 1925 1955 1930 1935 1910 1940 1915 1945 1920 1950 1925 1955 1930 Page Three est appreciation in land values. As shown in ago with representatives from farm organiza the accompanying table, sharp appreciation of tions, life insurance companies, the American values has occurred in both high- and low- Bankers’ Association, the Federal Reserve Sys tem, and the Farm Credit Administration, has priced farmland. been urging institutional lenders to hold farm mortgages at reasonable levels. However, The basic factors behind the rising farm val ues are, of course, general conditions brought these efforts are limited in their effectiveness on by the war. Farmers have not only increased because private lenders are taking a more active their output but have also received higher prices part, and loans in recent years have been larger for their products. For the United States, cash by reason of prevailing higher values. income from farm marketing, including Gov Over and beyond these educational admoni ernment payments, rose from $9 billion in 1940 to $21 billion in 1944—an increase of almost tions, more direct measures have been advanced 125 per cent. In Pennsylvania, cash farm in to deal with the speculative phase of the situa come, including Government payments, almost tion. Among these are credit control, taxation, doubled—it increased from $275 million in and price ceilings. Though difficult to admin 1940 to $540 million in 1944; in New Jersey ister, some form of credit control, such as the from $106 million to $195 million—an increase requirement of one-third down payment, has of more than 80 per cent; and in Delaware been urged to restrict the flow of funds to a from $28 million to $78 million—an increase of point where they would cease to be a major almost 180 per cent. While operating expenses factor in a land boom. Another suggestion is increased also, net income rose considerably the imposition of a profits tax with a rate struc ture designed to minimize speculative gains during the war. resulting from purchases and quick resales of Rising values reflect not only the increased farms. A somewhat similar proposal but wider profits to be realized under present conditions, in scope is a capital gains tax which would but also the attraction of buyers who ordinarily apply not only to speculative profits in farm would not be in the market. They include properties but also those arising from urban farmers who wish to add to their holdings; ten real estate. One of the most sweeping pro ants who now find ownership possible; war posals is the establishment of price ceilings and workers seeking a place for investment of sur the requirement of permits for the sale of farm plus earnings or anxious to become full or part properties, but it is questionable whether such time farmers; returning service men for whom measures would receive public support. agriculture has an attraction; and investors Urban Real Estate who seek some hedge against potential infla The war has also boosted urban real estate tion. Distress holdings of farm land by credit values; but generally speaking the dangers of institutions and others have largely been cleared future devaluation are not as great as in farm away. The supply does not equal the demand. Moreover, there is renewed interest on the part real estate. After the war agriculture will of credit grantors in mortgages as a means for not have a backlog of accumulated demand as diversifying and increasing the income from may be expected in residential construction. investments provided that these mortgages can Commercial properties, such as stores and ho be based on values deemed reasonable. This tels, have increased in value, which reflects im interest extends also to individuals, who in 1944 proved business resulting from higher wartime spending. Residential properties have appreci provided 40 per cent of the mortgage loans. ated primarily because of the growing shortage dwellings. The migration of people to war Those who have been watching the continued of production centers, together with the almost advance in values realize the dangers ahead. complete cessation of private residential con Farm organizations, agricultural colleges, and struction since the outbreak of war, has created the United States Department of Agriculture a shortage of living quarters in many areas. have been cautioning people against buying farms which in many areas are now selling at Financial institutions and others in this dis prices that cannot be sustained by earnings over trict indicate that since the outbreak of the war a period of years. The National Agricultural urban properties have increased from 10 per Credit Committee, organized over three years cent to more than 50 per cent; on the average, Page Four prices have gone up from a quarter to a third as shown in the accompanying table. In Phila delphia and its suburbs, residential properties have appreciated about a third since 1940. There is very little evidence of speculative ac tivity—this type of purchaser does not appear to be a dominant factor in today’s market. Most purchases are made not for resale but for occupancy by individuals who need shelter or who want better living quarters. Wartime Gains in Residential Property Values in the Third District—1940-1945 need for a comfortable place to live and a desire to take advantage of increased current earnings by obtaining more housing luxury. But, building cost surveys made over the past two years have convinced builders that at least part of the wartime mark-up in the cost of houses is justi fied. Dwellings built during 1942 at a cost of $4,900 could not be duplicated today for less than $6,000. Appreciation in unimproved prop erties has been practically nil owing to wartime restrictions on building and construction. In each community the price increase is influ enced by such factors as pre-war vacancies, con dition of housing, war contracts and migration. 50 Atlantic City.................... Atlantic, N. J__________ ____ 25 - 50 1 The distribution of war contracts, and the dif 25 - 50 ^ 30 - 33 ^ fusion of sub-contracts in many instances stimu 30 - 33 T** 25 - 33 lated industrial activity in small communities, 25 - 33 1 ^ 20 - 35 1 which overtaxed local housing capacities and 25-30 ’ Trenton............................... Mercer, N. J................................. sent up real estate prices. For example, in 25 - 30 Camden............................... Camden, N. J............................... 25 Towanda, with a population of about 4,000, 25 20 - 30 there is a serious housing shortage because of 20 - 25 20 - 25 the in-migration of workers employed by a Toms River........................ Oc«an. N. J..................................... 20 Lancaster........................ . Lancaster, Pa............................... 18 - 20 company engaged in war work. At the same 15 10 - 15 time, Towanda has an oversupply of large houses for which there is no market. QuakerNote: Based upon reports from bankers, real estate dealers, and others. town, in Bucks County, is another small com munity where a shortage of housing has boosted Homes for rent are almost impossible to find. prices of residential properties 50 per cent. The rent “freeze” instituted by the OPA in October 1942 was designed to hold the line on In Atlantic City, real estate values have ad rentals—an important element in the cost of living. The action accomplished its purpose so vanced considerably, not as a result of war con far as rents are concerned but the pressure is tracts but as a result of war conditions. Real now breaking out in property values. Owing estate has been at a premium because the Gov to the shortage of houses and particularly those ernment pre-empted hotel facilities and because for rent, people who want homes have to buy, there has been a huge demand for homes by and, having the money, they are paying higher out-of-town people. Since available properties are very scarce, prices are advancing rapidly. prices. Despite the sizable upturn in real estate prices, An important result of current developments local bankers do not consider the advances out is a wider enforced ownership of homes. In of proportion in view of the unduly depressed Philadelphia, since OPA rent controls went into state of the market in the years before the war. effect, more than 17,000 tenants have been There is also an active market with advancing forced to vacate because their homes were sold. prices in commercial properties, particularly me The number of such evictions has risen from dium- and small-sized hotels. an average of 50 a month in 1942 to 1,100 a month at present, and the rate is still rising. In Lewistown, residential real estate has in However, enforced ownership is more extensive creased just as much as in Atlantic City. A than indicated by the data on evictions because rather high percentage of homes were in need many tenants buy to avoid eviction. of major repair before the war, possibly con tributing to a rise of 25 to 50 per cent in prices It appears that those who are forced to buy of acceptable dwellings. Prices also have ad houses pay unusually high prices for dwell vanced considerably in Wilmington where in ings built since the middle thirties at costs rang migration of shipyard workers had created a ing from $6,000 upward, because of an urgent serious housing shortage. Some of the local City County and State % increase Page Five banks are receiving numerous requests for G. I. mortgage loans, many of which have to be turned down because prices are considered out of line with the values of the properties. individual localities, and the release of labor and materials on a broad scale may radically affect the supply situation, offering new homes with up-to-date conveniences to people who have the money but now get along with less Despite the fact that Altoona is not classed satisfactory housing. as an essential war industry community, real The bulge in real estate prices, both farm estate values are up 20 to 25 per cent. The market had been subnormal for a number of and urban, is to some extent a recovery from years but since the war there has been renewed unduly depressed values, but the market is ap activity, and most of the available properties proaching a situation where prices are out of line with sustaining values. High-priced resi have been sold. dential properties reflect in part a real shortage In Scranton, real estate appreciated less than of houses but to a considerable extent it is a in most other areas. The city received few war price-induced shortage brought about by high contracts and had a relatively heavy out-migra wartime incomes and the abundance of liquid tion of workers to other war centers. However, funds. Greater buying power is facilitating general business conditions have improved ma voluntary home ownership and rent controls together with rising property values foster en terially in the past eight or nine months. forced ownership. Throughout the district, residential real Prices of farm properties are rising as a re estate values have gone up primarily because of the shortage of dwellings. Generally, high- sult of increased buying activity, not only on priced properties have appreciated less than the part of farmers but also to a considerable medium- and low-priced properties. Building degree on the part of city buyers who want to has been practically at a standstill since Pearl get away from the strain of city life or indi Harbor, and all but the most essential repairs viduals who are seeking a hedge against infla have likewise been delayed. In the meantime, tion. There is also increasing evidence of specu accumulated funds and current income have lative buying. In view of the substantial appre increased tremendously and returning veterans ciation that has already occurred and its close parallel to the condition during the last war, are now adding to the demand for housing. utmost scrutiny by buyers of properties and lenders of funds is needed to avoid a repetition Concluding Comments of the unfortunate experience after the last In appraising the permanency of present val world war. The greatest home-buying splurge ues, one must look to the post-war period and the at that time did not occur until after the armis changes it will bring. Certainly with the pass tice. This is a significant fact and it should be ing of war, shifts in population will change the emphasized in appraising current and future complexion of the real estate situation in many developments. The Economy of the Third Federal Reserve District Part I—Heritage The future of the Third Federal Reserve Dis trict will be what its people make of their heritage. This is why so much attention has been paid in this study to the development of its population, manufacturing, mining, and agri culture. Of the thirteen original colonies, Penn sylvania was settled comparatively late, but the people who came here soon utilized the re sources they found to make it the leading colony —industrially, commercially, and culturally. Page Siw Dense forests of both conifers and hardwoods covered the land. The area contained rich de posits of anthracite and bituminous coal, petro leum, natural gas, iron ore, and limestone; many miles of navigable waterways which afforded access to the interior and provided potential sources of waterpower; a wide variety of soils, including some of the richest in the country; a mild, humid climate; and land forms varying from plains to mountains, with ample land suit able for agricultural pursuits. The Quaker settlement founded by Penn in 1682 rapidly became a melting pot of many races—English, Dutch, French, German, ScotchIrish, Swedes, and Welsh. Most of them were farmers by profession, but among them were also skilled artisans from the Rhine Valley— the 18th century workshop of Continental Europe. Farming was obviously the major occupation. Farms had to be hacked out of the forests; but land was abundant and the German farmers were quick to seize tracts overgrown with white oak, black walnut, and locust, which thrive best in good limestone soil. The settlers were able to provide their families with shelter, food, and clothing from their own land. Grain and stock farming predominated. Philadelphia became the leading commercial, industrial, and cultural center. Its tidewater location at the junction of the Schuylkill and Delaware Rivers was advantageous for overseas shipping and gave it access to a hinterland storehouse of wealth. Grain, cattle, and timber were transported downstream to Philadelphia where grist mills, packing houses, tanneries, and saw mills converted some of the raw materials into finished products for local markets and where the surplus was loaded on ocean-going vessels for export. Philadelphia was also the cultural center, owing largely to the fact that it was the site of the state capitol until 1799 and of the national capitol until 1800. Although predominantly agricultural, as early as 1750 Pennsylvania was the leading iron pro ducing colony. Furnaces were built first in the upper Schuylkill and later in other valleys where iron ore was found; charcoal was ob tained from large forest tracts, known as iron plantations. The abundance of iron ore, lime stone, and wood for charcoal laid the basis for the growth of a great industrial commonwealth. From the founding of the Republic in 1789 to the close of the Civil War, Pennsylvania grad ually changed from an agricultural to an indus trial state. A number of developments—eco nomic and political, local and national—com bined to make Pennsylvania the keystone state of a rising industrial nation. Manufacturing in the United States made an inauspicious start. England, operating under the doctrine of mer cantilism, continued to ship large quantities of manufactured products to this country in ex change for our raw materials even after we had won our independence. Nevertheless, manu facturing was able to gain a precarious foothold under the protection of Hamilton’s tariff policy. Domestic manufacturing was encouraged in directly by the Napoleonic Wars. The conflict gave an immediate stimulus to our shipping and export trade; American vessels boldly ran the blockade when France and England were trying to starve each other into submission. But when the Embargo and Non-Intercourse Acts stopped this lucrative trade, imports of manufactured goods and exports of raw materials were cut off simultaneously, with the inevitable effect of stimulating home industry. Another important development which helped to shape our destiny was Jefferson’s strategic purchase of Louisiana, which doubled the area of the United States and ultimately led to the opening up of rich agricultural areas with which Pennsylvania could not compete successfully but to which Pennsylvania could sell its manufactures. Access to our great western domain was obtained with the completion of the Erie Canal in 1825, and this in turn gave rise to a stampede of canal building. Not to be outdone, Pennsyl vania also built, against great odds, a portage canal across its rugged terrain. The chief ad vantage Pennsylvania derived from the canal building boom of the 1840’s was the construc tion of shorter tidewater canals, which made her rich anthracite deposits accessible to the heavily concentrated population along the eastern sea board. Still better transportation facilities were provided by the construction of numerous short line railroads immediately after the canal-build ing era. The arrival of the steam age opened up tre mendous markets for the huge forests and min eral resources of interior Pennsylvania and new industries began to flourish. Forest products were used for shipbuilding, canal boats, mine props, railway construction, and tanning. An thracite was used for industrial and domestic heating and also as a blast furnace fuel when charcoal became scarce as a result of the ex haustion of local stands of timber. In 1870, Pennsylvania employed as many peo ple in manufacturing as in agriculture and that period marks a turning point, particularly in the area which was subsequently to become the Third District. In that year Pennsylvania was producing about one-half of the country’s iron, Page Seven two-thirds of its coal, all of its petroleum, and was building most of its iron ships. In the last thirty years of the 19th century, industrial ac tivity expanded very rapidly, and agriculture receded to a relatively inferior position. As a result of the numerous technical developments and the discovery of new resources in other parts of the country, the composition of indus tries in this area took on much of the form we know today. The opening up of Lake Superior iron ore deposits and the change from charcoal and anthracite to coke made from bituminous coal as a blast furnace fuel caused the iron and steel industry to shift from eastern Pennsyl vania to Pittsburgh. During this same period, there was a great westward expansion stimu lated by a railroad-building boom. Tremen dous demands for railway steel were met pri marily by the steel industry of western Pennsyl vania but the plants in eastern Pennsylvania also shared in the huge building program. Mean while, local resources in the eastern part of the state were drawn upon very heavily. Indus trialism was based largely on coal and wood but by 1900 the original stand of timber was prac tically exhausted. of industries in the South and mid-West. This district continued to expand but it was increas ingly handicapped by the penalties of early de velopment. As the cream of many of its natural resources was skimmed off, costs of production rose above those elsewhere. Its greater age also required it to make larger adjustments to meet modern consumer demands. Its industrial equip ment and some of its production techniques are outmoded and less efficient than those of newer establishments. Furthermore, the shift from coal and iron to petroleum and lighter metals has favored areas having richer stores of crude oil and necessary raw materials for the new metals. The Second World War has stimulated the South and West more than this area, although some of their relative gain may be only tem porary. The real problem for the district, how ever, is not to keep pace with rapid growth in newer regions but to maintain its own economic activity at a high and stable level. This goal can be achieved if the people of this district pro duce at competitive prices the goods and serv ices which will be demanded in the post-war As the center of gravity of the heavy manu years. Population facturing industries shifted westward, numerous For the last four decades, the rate of pop lighter industries rose to prominence in this area. Important among these were the textile and ulation growth of this district has diminished apparel industries. By 1900, the eastern part constantly and has been consistently lower than of the state and Philadelphia, its industrial cen that for the nation as a whole. From 1899 to ter, already had a highly diversified industrial 1939 the increase for the district was 54 per cent, in contrast to 73 per cent for the country. structure. In 15 or 20 years the district is expected to In the first two decades of the 20th cen attain its maximum population, whereas the tury the district became more and more indus country may not reach its plateau until several trialized. Most of the people lived in cities and decades thereafter. worked in factories. Other activities were The larger increase in population during the largely complementary to manufacturing. Min ing was highly developed and expanded year four decades was in urban centers in the district, by year; trade, transportation, and other service which increased over 80 per cent, in contrast to industries also occupied a prominent position in an increase of 16 per cent in rural population. the local economy. Agriculture was far less This, of course, reflects migration from the coun important in the district than in the country as try to towns and cities to take advantage of the a whole. Most farmers were self-supporting, expanding employment opportunities in the although there was some specialization near manufacturing and service industries. Although cities. Thus, at the turn of the century the dis this trend was reversed temporarily during the trict was an important segment of the industrial business depression of the early thirties, migra East, whose supremacy had gone unchallenged tion to urban centers was resumed with the business revival of the late thirties. The war by other sections of the country. has accelerated the movement to urban areas During the first four decades of the 20th cen which offer the lure of employment at high tury the industrial development of the Third wages. Both agricultural and mining areas District was surpassed by the rapid expansion have lost heavily to these centers. Page Eight The distribution of population within the dis trict follows closely the pattern of natural re sources and economic development. Population is dense in the eastern half, where most of the manufacturing and mining activity is carried on; it is sparse in most of the western and north ern-tier counties, where farming is the principal economic activity. Manufacturing Although local manufacturing grew faster than agriculture and mining over the first four decades of the 20th century, it did not expand as rapidly as manufacturing outside the dis trict. On the basis of value added, the increase for the district was 244 per cent, compared with the national increase of 335 per cent; if one compares the number of wage earners, the local increase was 19 per cent and the national was 48 per cent. These differences are attributable not only to the rapid development of areas out side the district but also to the character of the district’s output. Predominance of nondurable goods, particularly textiles and apparel, has tended to restrict the growth of the district. Demand for these products depends largely upon population and national income. But pop ulation growth has been slowing down, and ris ing incomes were spent more and more for durable articles like automobiles than for non durable goods like apparel. This district, of course, produces some durable goods; but when the rapidly growing automotive and household appliance industries appeared on the scene and more recently when lighter steel and other met als came to the fore, this district, by and large, continued to produce its accustomed products. products, and leather products; but the stimulus was temporary, and output of these products had to be curtailed when wartime shortages of materials and labor became acute. As part of the already industrialized East, this area received a relatively small proportion of the new facilities which were widely distrib uted throughout the country. As a result, in the later stages of the war the district received a smaller proportion of total war contracts than might have been expected. Through December 1944, major supply contracts in this district amounted to 6 per cent of the total and facility contracts to 4.7 per cent. In contrast, this dis trict produced 8.1 per cent of the value added and employed 9.0 per cent of the country’s man ufacturing wage earners in 1939. It is not sur prising, therefore, that from 1939 to 1943 manu facturing production in the Third District in creased less than that of the country as a whole. The war has altered substantially the indus trial character of this district. Whereas in 1939 durable goods industries employed 36 per cent of all manufacturing workers, in 1943 they em ployed over 50 per cent. This is explained by the tremendous increases in employment in iron and steel, machinery, and transportation equip ment. On the contrary, there have been only small increases in employment in some non durable goods industries and actual declines in others, notably in textiles. It is doubtful that the present wartime structure will be retained with the return of peace, but what the final pattern may be will depend upon the require ments of a world at peace and ability to adapt industry to those requirements. Consumers’ du rable goods, seriously curtailed during the war, will be in great demand and manufacturers in this area may take advantage of opportunities afforded by this market. Over this period there was a vast disparity in the rate of growth of individual industries within the district. Important among those that grew rapidly were women’s and men’s clothing, knit goods, bread and bakery products, silk and Mining rayon goods, petroleum refining, canning and preserving, and electrical equipment. Blast This area has large reserves of valuable min furnace products, shipbuilding, leather tanning, eral resources; but unlike manufacturing, which woolen and worsted goods, and cotton goods is well diversified, the mineral industries are were among the industries that declined. confined for the most part to a few closely re lated lines. Eighty-five per cent of the output The national defense program immediately in 1939 consisted of anthracite, bituminous coal, stimulated manufacturing activity in this region. petroleum, and natural gas—all energy-produc With ready-made facilities for heavy metal ing minerals. Of these, anthracite is overwhelm products and shipbuilding, this area naturally ingly the most important, accounting for 60 per received a large share of early contracts. The cent of the total mineral output. Its history over war also accelerated production of civilian the first forty years of this century is divisible goods, such as apparel, textiles, tobacco, food into two periods: (1) 1899-1917, when anthra Page Nine cite had a virtual monopoly on domestic heating in the Middle Atlantic seaboard, and production rose steadily from an annual output of 60 mil lion tons to 100 million tons; and (2) 1918-1939, when production declined consistently to a level of 50 million tons as a result of growing com petition from other fuels, especially fuel oil and bituminous coal. Employment followed a simi lar trend during the four decades ending in 1939, but owing to increased mechanization and greater efficiency of operation, employment de clined 33 per cent, while production declined only 15 per cent. The war restored to anthracite some of its lost markets when the acute shortage of fuel oil forced conversion to coal-burning units. In 1944, anthracite tonnage was 64 million or 25 per cent above the 1939 level, despite a reduc tion of 21 per cent in employment. Increased output was accomplished in part by longer hours, but the most important development over the war period has been the acceleration of mechanization, as illustrated by growth in the use of machines for cutting, cleaning, loading, and strip mining. the counties of the district are large enough to permit extraction for several centuries. Crude oil production trends have been the reverse of coal. Output declined steadily from about 4 million barrels in 1899 to 2 million bar rels in 1921, and reserves were thought to be running low. Many oil wells, however, were rejuvenated by waterflooding and production was stepped up to 14 million barrels by 1939. In response to war demands for high-grade lubricants, for which Pennsylvania petroleum is especially noted, production reached an all-time peak of 15 million barrels in 1942. Petroleum reserves of the district were esti mated at almost one billion barrels in 1940. This is only a small fraction of the country’s total estimated reserves, but Pennsylvania crude oil is far above average in quality. Experiments to extract oil by mining are now in progress and if they prove successful greater recovery of this valuable resource may be obtained. > Agriculture There need be no fear of early exhaustion of anthracite resources. After more than a cen tury of exploitation, remaining reserves are suf ficient for at least another century and a half at recent rates of extraction. Of course, re serves may be used up sooner if the market for anthracite is increased by improvements in do mestic heating facilities or developments of new uses in the industrial field. During the present century, agriculture in the Third District has declined in relative im portance. The number of persons gainfully employed in agriculture has decreased 36 per cent and land in farms and number of farms each declined about 23 per cent. Farms of this area afforded an important source of man power for the expanding manufacturing and service industries. The history of bituminous coal over this pe riod has been similar to that of anthracite—ex panding output in the two decades before 1919 and subsequent contraction. Between 1919 and 1939 tonnage declined throughout the entire industry as a result of greater efficiency in fuel consumption and more extensive use of fuel oil. The declining production in this area reflected increasing competition from West Virginia, Illinois, and Kentucky. However, the wartime increase of 53 per cent between 1939 and 1943 more than kept pace with the national increase. The 1943 production of 29 million tons was only one million tons below the record output of 1919. t Substantial reserves of bituminous coal still remain despite many years of mining opera tions. It has been estimated that reserves in The minor position which agriculture holds in the district’s economy is illustrated by the fact that in 1940 for every person engaged in agri culture there were over fourteen employed in other industries—manufacturing, mining, and service. However, agriculture has adapted it self to an industrial economy by increasing spe cialization in products intended for nearby urban markets. Page Ten The outstanding change in the composition of the district’s agricultural output has been a, shift from crops to livestock. By 1939, live stock products accounted for about 64 per cent of farm income, in contrast to less than half in 1899. The tremendous increase in production of dairy products, poultry, and poultry products and the decrease in cereal production largely account for this shift. Not only has the total Construction output of the district become more specialized, but individual farms have tended to specialize Construction activity fluctuated between $70 in a few products best adapted to the agricul million and $500 million over the period 1919 tural conditions of the local region. 1943, in accordance with major changes in gen eral business activity. During the twenties, This has led to such an increase in produc residential construction comprised the largest tivity over and above that resulting from tech part of the total, but this type declined sharply nical improvements that despite the declines in in the early thirties when public works and pub land areas farmed, physical volume of output lic utility construction became the most impor has increased over 50 per cent between 1899 tant type. However, residential construction and 1939. The value of this output in 1939 regained its position by 1937. During the war averaged $20 an acre of land in farms, in con years, residential construction was restricted but trast to a national average of $7 an acre. This industrial and commercial construction ex denotes intensive utilization of local agricul panded. tural resources. The district’s dwelling units are generally in Agricultural output has increased in the dis good physical condition in comparison with the trict in response to the demand of war but to a country as a whole. However, the need for lesser extent than national production. The major repairs, running water, and electricity is principal increases have come in poultry and relatively great in many of our rural areas. The poultry products, dairy products, truck crops, influx of migrants into various industrial regions and pork products, whereas production of ce during the war has reduced the vacancy rate in reals, tobacco, and fruit crops has declined sub many of these areas far below normal. This stantially. Wartime trends indicate still greater has led to substantial overcrowding, which has been relieved to some extent by new housing. specialization in livestock products. Business and Banking (Continued from page 1) ated by a resumption of civilian goods produc tion. The purpose of this action is to retain the over-all pattern of rates in plants where certain types of employee operations will differ widely from those performed in munitions-making pro cesses. The Office of Price Administration has moved quickly to clarify pricing policies for goods which have been off the market since the early months of the war. Manufacturers have been given the option of producing under 1942 price ceilings or of applying the agency’s socalled “general rescue provision,” which makes allowances for wartime advances in wage and material costs. In any event, industry in a posi tion to reconvert is urged to start the production of all such items without waiting for the estab lishment of dollars and cents ceilings. 8 per cent from April 1944. Activity in both dur able and consumers’ goods lines was somewhat above the March rate. Compared with a year ago, however, a decline of 12 per cent was re ported in heavy industry, while operations at establishments making lighter products was very little lower. A similar relationship pre vailed in the four months ended April. Wholesale commodity prices in the aggregate have not changed materially for several months, although small advances were reported in April in quotations on farm products and foods. Subsequently higher ceiling prices for some in dustrial commodities, including coal and certain steel products, were authorized by the Federal pricing agency. At the retail level, a consider able degree of stability likewise has been pre served, with the cost of goods and services pur chased by wage earners and lower-salaried workers largely unchanged from March to April, and only 2 per cent higher than a year earlier. Industry. Industrial production in the Phila delphia Federal Reserve District showed some increase from March to April, reflecting a slightly higher level of manufacturing opera tions and a substantial gain in coal mining. Out put of factory products on an adjusted basis in Employment in Pennsylvania factories de creased one per cent in the month, but was down creased slightly from March to April, continuing Page Eleven EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS IN PENNSYLVANIA INDUSTRIAL AND TRADE ACTIVITY THIRD FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT 12 BRANCHES OF TRADE AND INDUSTRT PERCENT PER CENT I932AVG. = I 0 'VvVv 300 PAYROLL! PRODUCTION 250 /' V t « 200 DEPARTMENT STORE SALES 150 r" i 'V*' V / > 7s EMPLC YMENT \ ---------^ ^ . 100 50 ADJUSTED row SEASONAL VARIATION 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 ! the gradual downward trend that has been scarcely interrupted over the past fifteen months. The number of production workers in April was estimated at a little less than 1.2 mil lion, down 7 per cent from a year earlier, and the smallest reported since the early months of our participation in the war. Payrolls and total working time also showed small declines in the month. The volume of wage payments has fluc tuated rather narrowly over the past year. Weekly wage disbursements, approximating $54 million in April, were only one per cent less than a year earlier and were within 3 per cent of the wartime peak reached early in 1944. Employee hours worked have followed closely the trend of employment, decreasing slightly in April to a level 5 per cent below the same month last year; the decline from the 1943 high approxi mates 9 per cent. 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 have substantially reduced the tonnage which will be available for heating and industrial pur poses this coal year. The prospect of excep tionally heavy demands on the railroads for the redeployment of troops and the shipment of war goods cross-country to the West Coast, suggests that the movement of coal from mines to con sumers may be subject to interruptions. Production of the solid fuels showed widely < divergent tendencies during April and the first half of May. The volume of bituminous coal mined in the country was down 17 per cent from March, and remained near this reduced level through the first two weeks of May, reflecting unauthorized stoppages in the absence of a fullyapproved working agreement between miners and operators. In the four months ended April, output of soft coal was 7 per cent less than a year earlier in the country and was 11 per cent A The weekly income of wage earners at re smaller in Pennsylvania. At Pennsylvania an porting plants in Pennsylvania averaged $49.23 thracite mines, tonnage increased 14 per cent in in April, or about the same as in March, when April, but subsequently declined drastically, as earnings on that basis were the highest in rec strikes closed most collieries until shortly after ords covering over two decades. Average mid-May, when agreement was reached on the hourly earnings, which have been rising with details of a new contract. Anthracite produc but few interruptions since the fall of 1939, ad tion showed a decrease of 12 per cent in the first vanced slightly in April to a new peak of $1.10. four months this year. Average working time per employee has con tinued to fluctuate around 45 hours a week over t . a period of many months. Construction controls have been relaxed to the extent that essential repairs may be undertaken The supply outlook for solid fuels has grown without specific approval by the War Produc increasingly acute from the standpoint of both tion Board. Home building on a limited scale is production and distribution. Protracted work being programmed where necessary to the relief stoppages in the anthracite and bituminous fields of acute congestion, but further relaxations are Page Twelve FACTORY Production of milk has risen to a new peak for this time of the year; egg production continues at a high rate, but in the aggregate is substan tially less than in the spring of 1944. PAYROLLS PENNSYLVANIA PERCENT CAPITAL GOODS CONSUMERS GOODS 100 ^ 1940 1942 1943 1944 1945 Farm labor supply remains a serious problem nationally and locally, although decreasing munitions requirements in coming months may relieve the situation to some extent. According to the Department of Agriculture, farm employ ment on May 1 was at a record low for that date. An estimated 10 million persons employed in agriculture throughout the country was about 50,000 less than a year ago, with declines re ported in all geographic sections except the Mid dle Atlantic and Pacific Coast states. All of the decline in farm employment over the twelve months was in the number of hired workers. improbable until materials and manpower be Congestion on V-E Day in Atlantic ports and come more generally available than at present. over the rail lines serving them was avoided by taking anticipatory measures which permitted The value of new contracts awarded in this a prompt reversal of the bulk of freight traffic district expanded sharply in April, when place moving in an easterly direction. The shift to a ments were reported for an exceptionally large one-front war does not imply a significant de project in connection with a mine development cline in the over-all volume of traffic, and recur in the Pennsylvania anthracite region. Contracts ring tight situations with respect to both pas for most other types of construction decreased in sengers and freight may be experienced with April, or continued in unusually small volume. the redeployment of troops and the shipment of w Sharp declines from a year ago persisted in the vastly larger supplies westward to the Pacific case of single and multiple family dwellings; theatre. awards for factory, commercial, and educa Freight-car loadings in this section increased tional buildings also were smaller in April this somewhat on an adjusted basis during April, year than last. reflecting gains in all major commodity classi fications except merchandise and miscellaneous Agricultural prospects in this district at the freight and coke. The expansion in shipments beginning of May were less favorable than a of coal and ore was exceptionally sharp, owing month earlier. Adverse weather conditions af to the unusually early opening of navigation on fected both farm operations and crop growth. the Great Lakes. Total commodity loadings, Frequent heavy rains interrupted plowing and however, were little larger than a year ago, and seeding; planting of truck crops was seriously in the four months ended April they were down delayed, and unseasonably cool weather over slightly from the 1944 period. much of the month prevented normal growth of seedlings. Many early vegetables were injured Trade. Business at wholesale expanded con by frost, necessitating an unusual amount of re siderably in April to a level 9 per cent above a planting. In contrast with this situation the year earlier. Substantial increases in dollar condition of pastures and meadows continued to volume were reported during the month in the improve, as moisture supplies were ample. The case of electrical supplies, hardware, and drugs; ’ winter grains are unusually far advanced for so sales of shoes and groceries showed pronounced early in the season, and record or near record decreases but changes in other reporting lines yields are anticipated. Frost damage to orchard were minor. In the first four months, sales were fruits in April appears to have been somewhat 5 per cent larger than a year ago, owing to in more extensive than early reports indicated. creases at establishments handling groceries, Peaches are said to have withstood the low tem hardware, electrical supplies, and drugs. Whole peratures better than apples, pears, and cherries. salers' inventories did not change significantly Page Thirteen justed demand and time deposits through May 23 has been well over $300 million, raising these balances to a record $2,141 million, nearly $60 Retail sales by department, apparel, and shoe million higher than the peak reached early in stores in this district on an adjusted basis showed the last loan drive. declines ranging from about one-fifth to consid erably more than one-third in April. The de Local gains in customers’ deposits since the creases followed unusually sharp expansion in latter part of April have been larger than the most lines during the preceding month, and were net withdrawals from war loan and interbank partly attributable to one-day closings following balances. Funds derived from the moderate the death of President Roosevelt. Dollar vol ume was slightly larger than in April 1944 at increase in total deposits were applied in part department and women’s apparel stores, but sub to reduction of indebtedness and to increase in stantial declines were reported at establishments reserves carried with the Federal Reserve Bank. specializing in men’s apparel and footwear. The investment in Government securities Sales in the four months ended April continued changed little in total; substantial purchases of to exceed those of a year ago. Inventories in all Treasury notes and a small increase in bills reporting lines increased from March to April, were offset by sales of United States bonds and after allowance for seasonal influences; stocks certificates. were somewhat larger than a year earlier, ex cept at shoe stores, where they were down The modest upturn in loans at reporting banks nearly one-fourth. recently has been principally in the unclassified category. Advances to purchase or carry Gov Banking conditions. Offerings of marketable se ernments continue small, accounting for less curities in the Seventh War Loan have been than 3 per cent of total loans. Commercial available to individuals, partnerships (other loans declined to the lowest point of the war than securities brokers and dealers), and to personal trust accounts since May 14. Sales period. through the 31st of the month, including savings bonds and savings notes processed since April Heavy gains in interdistrict commercial and 9, have reached 50 per cent of quota in Penn financial transactions over the four weeks ended sylvania ; in the case of E bonds, the proportion May 23 were reflected partly in an increase of of quota attained was 41 per cent. $37 million to $771 million in reserves of all member banks in the district. The expansion in Nonbank investors other than individuals will reserves was limited by net payments to the be able to subscribe to marketable issues over a Treasury; an outflow of currency prior to the period extending from June 18 through the 30th. loan drive; and a decline in the local use of Re Issues open to them will comprise 2*4 and 2i/2 serve Bank credit. The principal change in such per cent bonds and % Per cent certificates of credit was a decrease of $18 million to $200 indebtedness, with the exception that the cer million in Treasury bills held under repur tificates will not be available to brokers and chase option. Direct bank borrowing from this dealers. Apart from the drive, commercial banks Bank continues light; the latest figures show $11 having savings deposits or issuing time certifi million of discounts and advances to member cates of deposit may enter limited subscriptions banks, and the highest point of the year has to the certificates, 1 Vi per cent bonds, and Series been only $18 million. F and G savings bonds. from March to April, but they were down 13 per cent from a year earlier. Largely as a result of Treasury disbursements of funds from the proceeds of the Sixth War Loan, customers’ deposits at reporting banks have expanded sharply since the turn of the year. At banks in leading cities of the Third Federal Reserve District the increase in ad Page Fourteen The reserves of member banks averaged $765 million in the first half of May. At Philadelphia banks reserves were only 2 per cent above re quirements, while the less closely invested coun try banks showed excess reserves equal to 24 per cent of requirements. BUSINESS STATISTICS Production Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Indexes: 1923-5=100 ?( A Adjusted for seasonal variation Per cent cllan ge Apri 1945 I 945 Apr. Mar. Apr. fr om fi om 1945 1945 1944 4 Mo. Year n108. 1 944 ago ago INDUSTRIALPRODUCTION MANUFACTURING............... Durable goods......................... Consumers’ goods................ Metal products....................... Textile products...................... Transportation equipment.. Food products......................... Tobacco and products.......... Building materials................. Chemicals and products.... Leather and products........... Paper and printing................ Individual lines Pig iron...................................... Steel............................................ Silk manufactures.................. Woolen and worsteds............ Cotton products...................... Carpets and rugs.................... Hosiery...................................... Underwear................................ Cement...................................... Brick.......................................... Lumber and products........... Bread and bakery products. Slaughtering, meat packing. Sugar refining.......................... Canning and preserving.... Cigars........................................ Paper and wood pulp............ Printing and publishing. . . . Shoes.......................................... Leather, goat and kid........... Paints and varnishes............. Coke, by-product................... COAL MINING...................... Anthracite................................. Bituminous............................... CRUDE OIL............................ ELECTRIC POWER............... Sales, total................................ Sales to industries.................. 101 105 168p 98 83 96 99 76p 86 155 84 82 98 322 431 424 350 BUILDING CONTRACTS TOTAL AWARDSf................. Residential............................. Nonresidentialf..................... Public work^ and utilitiesf. . 81 4 75 327 137p 140p 211p 93p 181 67p 481 120p 99 34p 172 88p 94 135 139 210 91 174 65 493 120 95 36 168 81 95 148r 152r 239 r 93 189 68 607 r 117r 97 34 163 r 99 93 87 93 83 131 128 131 85 83 83 66p 64r 62 42 40 41 56p 57 52 67 65 65 138 128 145 22p 26 24 50 52 48 32 33 33 102 68 167 94 83 r 97 92 69r 91 162 74 72 95 325 426 443 357 40 4 70 49 127 85 153 r 96 82 95 117 82 92 164r 84 r 81 lllr 374 419 424 358 + 2 - 8 + 1 - 8 + 1 - 12 + 3 - 1 + 4 - 4 + 3 - 2 - 2 - 21 +1 + 3 + 4 + 2 - 6 + 2 + 3 + 6 + 9 - 12 - 1 + i 5 2 1 2 1 1 0 + 8 -18 - 6 0 — 2* 0 +54 + 1 + 5 + 1 - 1 + 7 +10 - 6 - 4 +12 +14 + 3 - 1 + 1 - 4 - 2 - + + + - + + + + + + + + + + + - 7 0 3 6 4 9 3 5 9 4 * Unadjusted for seasonal variation. t 3-month moving daily average centered at 3rd month. in Pennsylvania Apr. Mar Apr. 1945 1945 1944 _ — _ _ _ + _ + + — _ _ + + _ 8 8 11 1 5 4 19 1 3 2 6 13 1 6 3 3 2 8 8 8 6 9 4 2 6* 24 17 11 4 0 1 8 18 4 3 12 12 ii 15 3 1 0 + 28 83 + 44 +157 135p 136 138p 140 146r 150r 173 181 66 628 r 112r 88 33 165 98 95 174r 67 498 516 116p 116 90 88 34p 34 r 175 169r 86p 83 96 97 98 95 105 138 137 137 81 86 83 61p 58 42 43 44 55p 58 51 65 67 67 135 140r 142 22p 20 24 52 51 32 32 30 99 136 147p 89 84 98 99 74 90 161 83 82 89 332 422 436 353 78 3 77 301 96 104 149 87 84 99 98 93 168 75 72 96 332 435 438 339 124 110 129r 88 83 97 117 79 r 96 171 83 81 lOlr 385 410 437 361 35 3 70 45 33 14 44 63 Mar. 1945 April 1944 Mar. 1945 April 1944 Allentown........... Altoona................ Harrisburg.......... Johnstown........... Lancaster............ Philadelphia.... Beading............... Scranton.............. - 1 0 - 3 - 1 - 5 - 1 - 1 0 - 1 + 3 - 2 0 -15 -10 - 3 + 3 0 + 3 - 3 +1 - 6 - 2 0 - 8 Wilkes-Barre.... Williamsport.... Wilmington......... York..................... + - + 3 - 9 -13 0 - 9 0 - 6 - 4 +12 - 22 +15 - 1 + 5 - 74 + 4 + 94 -12 +182 — 4 + 5 +393 +14 - 67 +195 +16 - 35 - 6 + 14 -11 - 46 + 7 - 50 Fac tory emplc yment 3 2 4 4 Fac tory pay rolls Buil ding perinits va ue Mar. 1945 D« bits Mar. 1945 April 1944 Mar. 1945 April 1944 + + + -32 -29 -27 -20 -28 —24 -26 -31 -29 -30 -13 - 5 - 3 + 1 - 7 — 3 -12 - 3 6 + 3 + 4 -16 - 4 -10 + 7 +27 + 5 + 9 - 4 +11 +19 +1 -26 -31 - 4 - 3 +325 + 96 +109 - 1 + 17 - 55 + 20 Per cent April changefrom April changefrom GENERAL INDEX............ 127 Manufacturing...................... 174 Anthracite mining............... 53 Bituminous coal mining. . . 64 Building and construction.. 45 uar. and nonmet. mining, 74 rude petroleum prod........ 131 Public utilities....................... 97 Retail trade........................... 114 Wholesale trade.................... 104 Hotels...................................... 101 Laundries................................ 99 Dyeing and cleaning........... 8 - 1 - 1 +14 -11 + 5 + 1 + 1 0 - 5 - 1 +1 0 o - 5 - 7 + 8 -19 + 6 -11 - 3 0 + 2 - 1 + 1 - 4 - 3 322 - 2 489 - 1 104 +10 203 -40 114 + 9 242 + 2 252 + 2 152 0 161 - 3 154 0 177 0 180 + 3 186 + 1 - 1 - 1 +16 -44 + 4 - 9 + 1 +10 + 6 + 8 + 6 + 5 + 8 Manufacturing Employment* Indexes: 1923-5 =100 TOTAL..................................... Iron, steel and products... Nonferrous metal products Transportation equipment. Textiles and clothing.......... Textiles............................... . Clothing............................... Food products...................... Stone, clay and glass.......... Lumber products................. Chemicals and products.. . Leather and products......... Paper and printing.............. Printing................................. Others: Cigars and tobacco............ Rubber tires, goods........... Musical instruments......... Payrolls* Fer cent Per cent April changefrom April chang efrom 1945 1945 index Mar. Apr. index Mar. Apr. 1945 1944 1945 1944 112 - 1 122 - 1 219 0 146 - 2 76 - 2 70 - 2 98 - 2 123 - 1 80 - 2 50 - 2 115 - 1 71 - 1 99 - 1 93 0 - 7 - 6 +10 -16 - 6 - 6 - 8 + 2 - 8 - 1 - 2 - 4 - 3 - 1 199 274 473 278 121 112 163 193 129 85 213 120 153 137 - 1 0 3 4 4 3 6 0 - 1 - 3 0 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 0 +12 - 9 + 4 + 4 + 3 + 8 - 1 + 7 + 1 + 6 + 3 + 5 48 148 98 -12 - 1 + 7 74 316 140 - 1 - 1 0 + 3 + 6 -16 - 1 0 + 2 - * Figures from 2802 plants. Hours and Wages April 1944 72 64 87 33 26 Payrolls index Mar. Apr. index Mar. 1945 1944 1945 1944 Factory workers Averages April 1945 and per cent change from year ago Re tail 88 les * Area not restricted to the corporate limits of cities given here. * Employment p—Preliminary, r—Revised. Local Business Conditions* L Percentage T change— O b 'April 2 1945 from f- month and year ago Industry, Trade and Service Not adjusted Indexes: 1932 =100 — _ + 7* 420 23 + 10 + 2 — 1 1 + 15 6 — 7 _ 6 — i — i 12 _ — 14 _ 3 + 0 + 2 35 +105 +136 15 + 6 - 75 43 + 7 + 75 69 +567 +374 Employment and Income + 5 -35 -~7 — 6 + 1 - 8 0 + 7 + 3 +16 TOTAL............................. Iron, steel and prods... Nonfer. metal prods.. . Transportation equip.. Textiles and clothing. . Textiles........................ Clothing....................... Food products.............. Stone, clay and glass... Lumber products .... Chemicals and prods... Leather and prods........ Paper and printing.... Printing........................ Others: Cigars and tobacco.... Rubber tires, goods... . Musical instruments. . f Wee kly work ing tim e* Hou rly earni QgS* Wee kly eami Qgsf Average Ch’ge Aver Ch’ge Aver Ch’ge hours age age 45.2 + 1 $1.095 + 4 $49.23 b 5 46.9 + 1 1.156 + 5 54.16 b 6 45.3 0 1.013 + 2 45.92 b 3 45.8 - 3 1.303 + 8 59.65 b 5 39.8 + 4 .810 + 7 32.21 bl2 40.8 + 4 .821 + 7 33.52 bll 37.3 + 4 .782 + 9 29.42 bl3 44.2 + 2 .823 + 1 36.78 b 5 42.2 + 3 .947 + 4 39.88 h 7 43.5 - 1 .802 + 6 34.76 5 46.7 + 2 1.074 + 2 50.02 - b 3 42.7 + 3 .790 + 7 33.86 +11 44.5 + 3 .939 + 5 41.79 + 7 41.5 + 3 1.103 + 5 45.84 + a_ 42.8 44.7 41.0 * Figures from 2658 plants. + 9 + 3 -16 .650 + 7 1.062 + 3 .909 - 6 27.81 +17 47.44 + 7 37.24 -22 t Figures from 2802 plants. Page Fifteen Distribution and Prices Per cent cha nge Unadjusted £pr seasonal Month ago Indexes: 1935-1939 =100 mos. RETAIL TRADE Sales Inventories . Total of all linesO Dry goods........... Electrical supplies Groceries. Hardware Jewelry Paper Source: U. S. Department of Commerce. Basic commodities (Aug. 1939=100).... (1026 —100)................ Living costs (1935-1939 =100).... Housefurnishings.. . Other.......................... + 2 + 84 0 +1 + 1 0 + + + + 2 5 1 1 -f 41 -mi + 57 + 24 0 0 0 0 - 1 0 0 + + + + + + 2 2 1 7 1 9 2 + + -j+ + + + 0 106 129 106 99 127 126 134 145 109 145 121 . Inventories. Percent change from Apr. 1945 Month Year Aug. 1939 ago ago 184 April 1945 fro m Apr. Mar. Apr. 1945 1945 1944 29 28 44 46 13 44 20 MISCELLANEOUS +1 +12 +10 0 +18 + 3 +19 - 9 -24 +11 + 4* 152p 143 158 129 134p 136 133 181 168 55p 54 146 146 171 73 + 9 +12 + 2 + 2 + 6 -24 + 8* 153 147 152 137 181 185 61p 61 151 141 96 177 401 220 123 158 121 146 141 90 138 260 223 + 3 0 + 7 +28 +54 - 2 +12 +15 +11 + + + 1 3 7 - 7 +33 — 14 -15 +22 -18 - 2 109 149 137 90 191 301 256 144 129 148 140 132 122 + 6 177 0* +20* - 1 no 137 + 8 + 2 + 4* Business liquidations 188 189 158 r 148r 157 147 180r 151 149 171r 81 138 136 90 142 114 210 95 130 101 142 135 90 153 156 + i -10 144 140 96 141 208 178 103 147 111 +14 +10 140 137 122 —33* -68* -61* -50* + 5 3 1 184 3 1 187 4 4 173r + 0i -11 +20 - 8 -18 + 6 121 120 136 — * Computed from unadjusted data. Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. —21 -21 -32 -34 -41 - 6* 204 191 220r 229 202 149 FREIGHT-CAR LOADINGS 200 185 241 r 208 212 161 r 151r 145 165 156 r 162p 152 149 150 120p ri, Apr. Mar. Apr. 1945 1945 1944 1945 from 4 mos. 1944 Month Year ago ago Sales Total of all lin Boots and s Drugs....... v« Dry goods,.. Electrical supplies Groceries Hardware Jewelry....................... Prices Not adjusted Adjusted for seasonal variation change WholdMl^ade p—Preliminary. r Revised. BANKING STATISTICS MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND RELATED FACTORS Changes in four weeks Changes in weeks ended— Third Federal Reserve District (Millions of dollars) May 2 May 9 May 16 May 23 Sources of funds: < . Reserve Bank credit extended in district. . . Commercial transfers (chiefly interdistrict). Treasury operations............................................. -45.3 +48.1 +14.6 + 7.6 +47.2 -29.6 +14.5 - 0.7 + 4.5 - 1.8 +28.9 -36.9 - 25.0 +123.5 - 47.4 +17.4 +25.2 +18.3 - 9.8 + 51.1 + 3.8 +14.8 - 1.2 + 0.0 + 9.8 +15.7 - 0.4 + 0.1 + 4.8 + 13.1 + 0.5 - 0.1 - 3.3 6.4 0.1 0.0 + 15.1 + 37.2 — 1.2 - 0.0 +17.4 +25.2 +18.3 - 9.8 + 51.1 Changes in— Reporting member banks (Millions $) May 23, 1945 _ Assets Commercial loans................ Loans to brokers, etc.......... Other loans to carry secur.. Loans on real estate............ Loans to banks..................... Other loans............................. Four weeks One year $ 202 45 15 33 1 122 -* 4 + 3 1 1 8 -$ 41 + n + 3 5 1 + 21 + + $ 418 +* 7 -$ 12 Government securities.... $1736 Obligations fully guar’teed. 54 175 Other securities..................... -$ 1 +*182 + 22 $1965 -* 4 +$204 Total loans & investments. $2383 446 Reserve with F. R. Bank.. 30 Cash in vault........................ Balances with other banks. 79 48 Other assets—net................. +* 3 + 15 - 1 + 3 +*192 + 47 + i + 9 - 12 Total loans. Total investments. Liabilities _ Demand deposits, adjusted. Time deposits...................... • U. S. Government deposits Interbank deposits............... Borrowings............................. Other liabilities..................... Capital account.................... Page Sixteen $1934 207 232 344 8 16 245 - Total. Uses of funds: Currency demand.................. :........... Member bank reserve deposits.... “Other deposits’* at Reserve Bank. Other Federal Reserve accounts... Total. 3 +*82 + 2 - 49 - 8 - 8 - i + 2 +*187 + 27 - 31 + 36 + 4 + 14 Member bank reserves (Daily averages; dollar figures in millions) Re Held quired Ratio of Ex cess excess to re quired 1944: May 1-15.. 1945: April 1-15. . April 16-30. . May 1-15. . $372 410 415 430 *364 402 409 421 *8 8 6 9 Country banks 1944: May 1-15. . 1945: April 1-15.. April 16-30.. May 1-15.. 268 322 319 335 220 263 266 271 48 59 54 64 2% 2 1 2 22 22 20 24 Changes in Federal Reserve Bank of Phila. (Dollar figures in millions) Discounts and Industrial loans.... U. S. securities......... * May 23, 1945 Four weeks 11.3 3.6 1358.4 -* 6.2 + 0.4 + 22.5 +* 4.4 1.9 + 429.5 +$16.7 + 10.3 + 37.2 - 12.6 + 1.6 - 1.2 + 21.5 + 0.3% +$432.0 + 270.3 + 121.6 + 1.9 - 37.4 1.5 - 79.3 - 11.4% $1373.3 Note circulation.... . 1497.7 Member bk. deposits 771.4 28.4 U. S. general account 100.7 Foreign deposits---4.4 Other deposits.......... 1040.4 43.3% Reserve ratio............ One year
@FedFRASER