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1 L /dL / THE BUSINESS REVIEW FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA .i'liSiS**, JULY 2, 1945 !j Current Business and Banking Industrial reconversion since V-E Day has been retarded basically by two obstacles—un certainty of military requirements for the war against Japan, and the shortage of steel. Clari fication of the former is expected soon but steel mills and the metal fabricators are heavily booked with high priority orders so that the makers of consumer goods must continue to stand in line. During the past month the War Production Board has continued to prepare the way for large scale reconversion. Production quotas have been set for the manufacture of passenger automobiles and major household appliances; substantial quantities of aluminum and brass have been released for civilian use, and con sumers of copper are permitted to purchase up to a thirty-day supply. The Spot Authorization Plan, having largely served its purpose of initi ating reconversion in small plants with munitionfree facilities, was revised at the end of June. Procedure under the plan as amended enables manufacturers to produce more items on a “catch as catch can” basis. At this stage of the reconversion program par ticular attention is being paid to the needs of the nation’s railroads. The redeployment of troops and the mounting volume of military freight moving westward is causing new and compli cated traffic problems for the carriers. Recog nizing the need for more rolling stock, the War Production Board has placed the entire freightcar building industry and many suppliers of R parts on the National Production Urgency list. The action assures priorities on materials for a large number of producers, including quite a few located in this district. It also assures car builders and their suppliers preference in man power referrals through the United States Em ployment Service. Cut-backs in munitions schedules are increas ingly reflected in an easier manpower situation throughout the country. The number of tight labor areas continues to decline, and in many sections, notably Detroit, controls have been relaxed. In Philadelphia and nearby counties, controls have been relaxed in the past month to the extent of exempting women from employ ment ceilings. As estimates of the labor re quirements of war industry continue to diminish, other manpower regulations in this industrial area may be eased in the third quarter. Industry. Productive activity in the Philadel phia Federal Reserve District slackened con siderably in May and was substantially below the level of a year earlier. Manufacturing oper ations decreased largely as a result of reduced war orders. In the coal mining industry, activity was drastically curtailed by the strike at anthra cite collieries. Output of factory products on an adjusted basis decreased 5 per cent in the month and showed a drop of 13 per cent from May 1944. Pronounced decreases from April to May oc(Continued on page 7) Page One The Economy of the Third Federal Reserve District Part II—Prospects The economic development of this area from its colonial origin to the present has been a process of continuous change in adaptation of local resources to changing needs and require ments. In the light of a rich heritage the ef fects of the war on the livelihood of the people of this district and the post-war prospects may be appraised more effectively. The Third Federal Reserve District is a small but highly industrialized community. In 1940 over 7% million, almost 6 per cent of the coun try’s population, made their living in this area which contains only 1.2 per cent of the total land area of the United States. The 60 counties composing the district had an average popula tion density of 210 per square mile, in contrast with 44 for the entire country. Although it is highly industrialized, this does not mean that most workers were employed in factories. On the contrary, it is surprising how few people were engaged in manufacturing. Of every 100 persons employed in 1940, only 34 worked in factories, 7 on farms, 5 in mines, and 4 in the building trades. Thus, half of the workers were engaged in extracting raw materials from the earth and converting them into physical goods for immediate or ultimate consumption. (See Table 1.) These goods-producing industries are pri mary, not in the sense that they are more im portant than others but because they were the first to be developed and still produce most of the basic necessities of life—food, clothing, and shelter. Of course, the economy is now so highly specialized that the primary industries are interdependent, not only upon each other but also upon the service-producing industries which employ the other half of the gainfully occupied. The service-producing industries are sec ondary in the sense that they facilitate the operations of the primary industries and also afford innumerable ways for increasing the com forts of living. They provide health, travel, education, entertainment, police protection, light, water, heat, repairs, storage, finance, and so forth. Business and personal services, such as insur ance, domestic and professional services, ac counted for 19 per cent of the total employed. Trade accounted for 17 per cent; utilities and transportation, 7 per cent; and Government serv ices, 7 per cent. The importance of these indus tries as a means of livelihood is often over looked, perhaps because they are strictly local industries and ultimately dependent upon manu facturing, mining, and agriculture of the area for their prosperity. But this is not the full picture of the pre-war economy of this district, for it includes only the 2,645 thousand persons who were successful in finding employment. Actually 3,225 thousand persons would have had jobs had there been enough to go around; but there were 580 thou sand persons, or 18 per cent of the labor force unemployed. The District’s Economy—War Peak TABLE I: Estimated Employment in Third District 1940 1943 194X» (Thous.) % (Thous.) % Total................................................ 2,645 100 3,136 100 3,034 Goods-producing industries . . 1,324 50 1,666 53 1,548 51 Manufacturing.......................... Agriculture................................. Mining......................................... Building....................................... 897 174 137 116 34 7 5 4 1,293 168 116 90 41 5 4 3 1,092 174 137 145 36 6 4 5 Service-producing industries . 1,321 50 1,470 47 1,485 49 Service - business and personal Trade........................................... Utilities....................................... Government (excluding mfg.). 494 443 197 188 19 17 7 7 465 453 238 314 15 14 8 10 532 507 228 219 18 17 7 7 Note: Figures are rounded and do not necessarily add to totals. ♦194X designates firBt year after reconversion. Page Two (Thous.) % 100 The unlimited demands of war have elim inated this problem for the moment. Young men were drawn into the armed services and total civilian employment rose from 2,645 thou sand to 3,136 thousand in the district between 1940 and 1943, an increase of almost 20 per cent. The necessary emphasis upon fabricated goods further concentrated the working people of this area into manufacturing pursuits. Em ployment in manufacturing grew 44 per cent from the pre-war level of 897 thousand to 1,293 thousand at the war peak, when it constituted 41 per cent of the total employed, in contrast to 34 per cent in 1940. To facilitate expansion in this field, further increases in the industries essential to the proc esses of manufacturing—transportation, com munication, light, heat, and power—were nec essary. This group increased 20 per cent in this district over the war period, from 197 thousand to 238 thousand. The war also stim ulated a substantial increase of employment in Government service; it rose from 188 thousand to 314 thousand as a result of vastly increased needs for manpower in administrative offices and training centers and the migration of some Government departments from Washington to this area. sion has taken place—called 194X. Since re conversion will begin at different times for dif ferent producers and will be of varying duration, it is oovious that 194X cannot be associated with any specific calendar year. However, these estimates suggest the direction of the changes which will take place in the local economy as the war comes to a close. Certain qualifications about 194X should be borne in mind in studying the results of these estimates. First, a considerable lag may be ex pected between the manufacture of civilian goods and their appearance on retailers’ shelves. In some cases there will be even longer delays A slight increase of employment in wholesale where stockpiles of basic raw materials for and retail trade raised the employment level manufacturing have been drawn down below from 443 thousand to 453 thousand. More peo normal levels over the war period, as in the ple were required to handle the larger wartime case of lumber. Secondly, although plants will volume of sales but most or all of the increase be ready to resume civilian production, in many may represent part-time workers. cases they will not be operating at full post-war capacity because not all manufacturers will be The additional persons working in manufac able to expand capacity and obtain needed turing and utilities have be,en drawn not only from the ranks of the pre-war unemployed but equipment immediately. Third, civilian demand also from other fields, such as agriculture, min for goods in this first post-war year will be ab ing, construction, and service. It is priority of normally high, reflecting the accumulation of demand rather than lack of demand which ex wartime shortages. Finally, and most impor plains the decreases in employment. Agricul tant, despite the completion of reconversion, this ture and mining have expanded production will still be a year of transition and adjustment. above pre-war levels by substantially increasing There will be the tremendous job of retraining the productivity of their workers. Construc the labor force to the normal peacetime pattern tion, on the other hand, was operating below its of demands. Many workers losing their jobs pre-war volume in 1943, since much of the war through the contraction of war industries will construction had been finished and shortages be shifting from one job to another. It will of both men and materials prevented the under also be a period when many firms will be offer taking of nonessential contracts. In the serv ing new products and new services to the test ice industries the basic problem was almost of the market. entirely manpower, and as a result their level Total employment in 194X in the district is of activity was necessarily far below that war estimated at 3,034 thousand—a decline of 102 ranted by consumer purchasing power. thousand, or 3 per cent below the war peak. The over-all effect of the war has been a The 194X labor force is expected to be approxi substantial change in the distribution of work mately 4 per cent greater than the pre-war ers from industries producing services to those labor force, or about 3,354 thousand; hence, un producing goods, particularly war goods, rais employment might be in the neighborhood of ing the proportion of total employed in the pri 320 thousand, or 10 per cent of the labor force— mary industries from 50 to 53 per cent and low a substantial reduction over the 18 per cent un ering the share of the secondary industries employed in 1940. Allowing for customary un correspondingly. The realignment of the econ employment due to such causes as illness, seaomy to peacetime demands at a high level of em sonability, and workers shifting from one job ployment will be the basic problem of the imme to another, the problem of full employment will be to absorb an additional 200 thousand diate post-war period. into productive occupations. To accomplish this means raising the employment level above the Short-Run Prospects of the Third District war peak, but with the difference that these On the basis of private surveys, employment human resources will be used less intensively prospects of the Third District have been esti and in different occupations than during the mated roughly for the first year after reconver war. Page Three 1400 tively large increase in employment expected in the construction industry. Although the de mands for building and repair resemble the pent-up demand for many durable manufac tured goods, like trade, this industry may be delayed in getting its operations under way until its raw materials are produced by manu facturing and extractive establishments. The number employed in construction may be ex pected to expand as rapidly as materials become available. 1400 The expected decrease in “utility” employ ment primarily reflects a result of the lower level of operations in manufacturing. However, it should be noted that the decline is only 4 per cent in this field, compared with a decline of 16 per cent in manufacturing. Agriculture and mining are both expected to increase employ ment to pre-war levels, which in each instance will mean greater output than in 1940 as a re sult of wartime increases in productivity. It is not likely that employment in these two indus tries will increase much beyond these levels in the immediate post-war period, since neither the demand for food nor for domestic heating fuel is very elastic. Moreover, the long-run pre-war trend of employment in both these industries was downward, reflecting in both cases substan tial increases in productivity and inelasticity of demand. In the case of mining, the rise of com petitive fuels produced outside the district is another unfavorable factor. ESTIMATED EMPLOYMENT IN THE THIRD DISTRICT THOUS. SERVICES 1940 1943 I94X SERVICE-PRODUCING 40 43 Hx SERVICE HO 43 HX HO H3 4X Ho ’43 '4X TRADE UTILITIES GOVERNMENT 40 43 '4X '40 '43 ’4X MINING BUILDING GOODS 1000 ESS 1940 1943 194 X GOODS-PRODUCING 40 43 4X 40 43 4X MANU - AGRICULTURE TACTURING mum With the exception of trade, the broad occu pational groups which increased over the war period—manufacturing, utilities, and Govern ment—will not maintain their wartime levels through 194X. Those experiencing declines over the war period—agriculture, mining, con struction, and service—will be recruiting addi tional employees in this period. Consumers’ unsatisfied demands for radios, automobiles, good quality apparel, shoes, and the like, will be enormous but they will not entirely replace the needs for tanks, guns, battleships, and other in struments of war. The availability of manpower in 194X will make possible the expansion of trade and serv ices to levels more in keeping with the demands of consumer purchasing power than was pos sible at the war peak. The availability of man power and materials also explains the rela Page Four Finally, a decrease of one-third is anticipated in Government employment as the need for con trols gradually declines. Military and naval establishments will be curtailed, and certain government agencies may be expected to return to Washington. The result of these shifts among the various industries will be a distribution of employment between the pre-war level and the war peak. The economy will have a greater concentration of workers in manufacturing than in 1940, but less than in 1943. Agriculture and mining will rank slightly higher than during the war but not as high as pre-war. The primary industries as a whole will em ploy about 51 per cent of the workers and the service-producing industries as a whole will employ 49 per cent of the total. Only construc tion will surpass both its pre-war and war-peak proportions by employing 5 per cent of total employed in 194X. TABLE II: Estimated Manufacturing Employment in Third District Employment (in thousands*) Manufacturing........................... Textile mill products................. Iron and steel products............ Apparel and other fabricated textile products......................... Food and kindred products. . . Machinery.................................... Chemicals and petroleum and coal products............................. Transportation equipment... . Printing and publishing........... Miscellaneous............................... Stone, clay & glass products. . Leather & leather products. . . Lumber, furniture, and lumber products...................................... Paper and allied products.... Tobacco manufactures.............. Nonferrous metals & products. Rubber products......................... Per cent change 1940 1943 1940194X 1943194X + 22 + 10 + 21 - 16 + 22 - 31 1940 1943 194X 897 156 125 1,293 141 218 1,092 + 44 173 - 10 152 + 75 104 73 73 127 80 137 116 87 106 + 22 4- 9 + 88 + 11 + 20 + 46 - 9 + 10 - 22 62 59 42 36 36 33 83 241 40 50 40 30 75 99 49 39 41 40 + 34 +307 - 5 + 41 + 12 - 8 + + + + + + 22 67 15 10 15 20 + + + 9 59 21 22 2 30 30 27 21 13 8 29 27 20 17 11 34 32 24 14 12 - 2 + 3 - 4 + 36 + 25 + + + + + 13 20 15 13 47 + + + + 15 16 20 17 18 * Figures are rounded and do not necessarily add to totals. Per cent changes are based on full figures. This analysis greatly over-simplifies the vast shifting process in the distribution of the labor force which will occur during the transition, as only broad occupational groups are dealt with. An examination of the changing employment needs of the component industries making up each of these groups, or better still of the indi vidual firms in each of these industries, would reveal the complexity of readjustment. Al though it is impossible to break down each item in the foregoing table into smaller segments, it has been possible to construct estimates for 16 major industries making up the manufacturing group. These are shown in Table 2. Nine of these groups, headed by the textile industry, anticipate increases in their employment over 1943, amounting to 74 thousand in all; but total employment in manufacturing will decline be cause this is not enough to offset decreases of 142 thousand in transportation equipment; 66 thousand in iron and steel; 31 thousand in ma chinery; and declines in other “war” industries. Long-Run Prospects A great deal of thought has been given to planning for tomorrow, that is, for the year or so immediately after the war. It is just as important, if not more so, to lay plans for the day after tomorrow, that is, several years after the war—say 1950. In 194X, the year after reconversion, it may be assumed that most of the major readjustments from war to peace will have been made. But it cannot be assumed that a condition of normalcy will prevail. While perhaps the majority of business enterprises will have done their retooling and made their plants ready to cater to peacetime markets, the flow of goods may be insufficient to satisfy the demands. Residential housing will be inadequate. High way construction will be unfinished. Railroads and other utilities will not have completed their programs of catching up on long-deferred main tenance and renovations. For lack of machin ery and equipment, numerous manufacturing enterprises will not be geared up to a capacity sufficient to meet the needs of products which civilians have had to forego for a number of years. For lack of raw materials such as lum ber and leather, some producers will be unable to supply their market. Just as in the early part of the war a great many munitions items were “on order,” so in 194X numerous civilian goods will have to remain “on order!’ until the readjustment process is completed. It will be a sellers’ market as long as these conditions prevail. By 1950, all or most of these conditions prob ably will have changed. Productive capacity will be adequate—perhaps more than adequate —and the delayed demands for durable goods of both producers and consumers will be satis fied. It may be assumed that every industry and every area will have fully developed potential ities for peacetime production. Competition may be expected to attain a high pitch. It will be a buyers’ market, and only those producers who can turn out goods at low cost will survive. How will the Third District fare in 1950 and beyond? Here, as elsewhere, the common goal is to provide jobs for all who seek employment; but the attainment of substantially full employ ment presents some problems peculiar to this district. Although it is impossible to ascertain how many people will be employed in 1950, it is possible to obtain a broad perspective of how the people in this region will be making their living. On the basis of past trends extending over a great many years, further contraction may be expected in the proportion of workers in the goods-producing industries and an increase in the proportion in the service-producing indus tries. It is estimated that by 1950 about 48 per cent of the workers will be employed in produc ing goods and 52 per cent in production of services. In the goods-producing industries the longrun prospects for expanding job opportunities are most favorable in manufacturing and con l Page Five struction and least favorable in mining and agriculture. Agriculture in this area affords very little, if any, opportunity for increased employment. For several decades agricultural employment here has been almost stationary, though physical output has been steadily increased. Expanding output with a substantially constant labor force has been achieved through mechanization, soil enrichment, and scientific practices in plant and animal husbandry. During the war, our farm ers increased their output materially with a smaller labor force than they had in the period immediately preceding the war. After the war some of the workers in war industries and some veterans will return to the farms, but most of them will take the place of older workers who carried on patriotically during the war. country’s most important areas in production for war can be utilized to make it an equally im portant area in production for peace. It has a highly skilled and well trained supply of labor. It has a great variety of established industries which make for the stability which goes with diversification. It has a vast accumulation of capital and abundant credit facilities. It has a highly developed and integrated system of transportation, both land and water, which af fords easy access to world-wide markets and raw materials. Whether local industries can create expand ing employment opportunities depends very largely upon the breadth of vision used in the plans for reconversion. Planning on the basis of pre-war products is not enough because many will be obsolete. One of the few useful by products of war is a pronounced acceleration of technological developments which will give rise Mining, likewise, offers little opportunity for to a great variety of improved and new prod expanding employment. Any appreciable in ucts. For example, the development of radar crease would have to come from anthracite, will have a pronounced effect upon the com which accounts for almost two-thirds of the munications industries. Similarly, other indus mineral output of the district. This is unlikely. tries will be affected by wartime developments The market for anthracite has been contracting in the production and use of plastics, plywood, ever since the First World War, and further light metals, synthetic rubber, high octane gaso more, the moderately increased production stim line, and new textile fabrics. ulated by the present war was obtained with a smaller labor force due, in part, to mechaniza Every job created in manufacturing leads to tion of the process. Prospects for greater em the creation of still more jobs in the service in ployment in this field are not very favorable dustries. The manufacture of goods requires unless chemists develop some new uses for the use of power produced by utilities; trans anthracite, such as converting the mineral into carbon black or liquid fuel. There is also little portation furnished by railroads and motor likelihood of greater employment in the district trucks; money and credit supplied by banks; bituminous area. It is on the marginal fringe protection from certain risks provided by insur of the vast Appalachian beds whose richest de ance companies; distribution effected by whole posits lie outside of the district in Kentucky, salers and retailers, as well as storage, repair, Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. and allied services contributed by a host of re lated specialists. In addition to these services facilitating the production and distribution of The building trades afford growing job op goods are numerous independent services, such portunities. In addition to expanding needs as education, travel, and entertainment—all of based on normal growth of population, the long- which make for higher standards of living and delayed construction program will hardly have well-being. Trade and services, as a whole, are been completed by 1950. Operating processes occupying an increasingly important position and traditional practices are not likely to under and may be expected to employ more and more go change so radically as to cause technological people in the future. While some of these serv displacement of workers. In the event that ices are dispensable in times of adversity, im construction costs are reduced substantially by proved standards of living are reflected in em prefabrication or other means, lower cost hous ployment of a larger proportion of workers in ing might stimulate still greater employment. these fields. Manufacturing has been the basic economic activity of the district for many years. The same factors that made this region one of the Page Six The Third District, which is part of the oldest industrial region of the United States, has all the characteristics of a seasoned economy. It has passed through the stage of most rapid growth, it has greater stability than more re cently developed areas, and it has a large ac cumulation of wealth which makes for a high standard of living. Numerous yardsticks may be used as evidence of a higher standard of well being. Compared with the country at large, the people of this district file more income tax returns per 100 of population; they have more telephones and radios per capita; they have better housing, as shown by the smaller percentage of homes in need of major repairs or the larger percentage of homes equipped with such conveniences as running water and electric lighting equipment; and relatively more people are home owners. Perhaps the greatest danger is the possibility that these higher standards may foster an at titude of complacency. Other areas which are not as highly industrialized will, of course, grow faster but that is no reflection upon the older and more industrialized regions. In an area such as this, the major problem is to maintain or raise existing standards by continuous ef fort to improve and adapt productive facilities to the constantly changing conditions of the economic environment. Current Business and Banking (Continued from page 1) curred in heavy industry lines, particularly at plants turning out transportation equipment. Production of nondurable goods in the aggre gate was only slightly smaller than in April, but decreases were widespread, occurring in all lines except leather and paper and printing. Compared with a year ago, the production of durable goods was down 18 per cent, in contrast with a decrease of only 5 per cent in nondura bles. Through the first five months of 1945 declines from the preceding year have con tinued more pronounced in heavy industry than at plants making lighter products. Wholesale prices rose slightly during the sec ond half of May and in the early part of June, reflecting advances in certain foods and an in crease of one dollar a ton in the price of anthra cite fuel at the mines. Retail prices also moved upward a little in the month ended May 15, when the cost of food purchased by wage earners and lower-salaried workers showed an average rise of nearly 2 per cent in large cities throughout the country. In Philadelphia, the advance in food costs was close to 3 per cent in this period. Minor increases were reported na tionally and locally in retail prices of clothing. Employment and wage payments in major lines of industry, trade, and service in Pennsyl vania decreased somewhat further from April to May and in the aggregate were down 6 and 8 per cent respectively from levels prevailing a year earlier. Payrolls at bituminous mines rose steeply in May with the resumption of normal operations under a new working agreement, but at anthracite mines the strike reduced wage disbursements to a fraction of their April vol ume. Changes in most trade and service lines were rather narrow. Factory employment, payrolls, and total working time in Pennsylvania continued to de crease in May reflecting in part declining pro duction schedules in several munitions lines. The number of production workers, which has shown a gradual but uninterrupted decline since early last summer, was reduced 1 per cent from April to a level 7 per cent below a year ago. Wage payments and employee-hours worked de creased 3 per cent in the month and were re spectively 7 and 9 per cent less than in May 1944. Previously the volume of payrolls had fluctu ated rather narrowly a little below the wartime peak reached early in 1944. The decline in May was quite general; it was especially pronounced in the transportation equipment industry, where wage payments to workers in shipyards and automotive plants were reduced nearly 15 per cent, as some contracts were completed and others were cancelled. All other major indus try groups except stone, clay and glass, and paper and printing reported smaller payrolls in May than in April. In the case of the textile, clothing, and leather groups, however, the de creases were of much smaller than seasonal proportions. The weekly income of wage earners at report ing plants in Pennsylvania decreased to an aver age of $47.96 in May from $48.96 in the pre ceding month, and $48.14 a year ago. Average hourly earnings remained at the record high Page Seven METAL PRODUCTS PRODUCTION AND PRICES EMPLOYEE-HOURS IN PENNSYLVANIA 1932 AVeLiOO PERCENT PRODUCTION * IRON AND STEEL PHILA. FEDERAL RESERVE WHOLESALE COMMODITY PRICES U.S. METALS COST OF LIVING IN PHILADELPHIA 1939 1940 1943 1944 1945 of $1.09 reached in March. Average working time, which had approximated or exceeded 45 hours a week for nearly two years, was reduced to about 44 in May. Production of bituminous coal in Pennsylvania increased considerably in May from the small volume of the preceding month, when opera tions were curtailed by work stoppages. Output continued at a high rate through the first half of June. The tonnage mined in the five months ended May showed a decrease from a year ago of 12 per cent in this state, and 8 per cent in the country as a whole. At Pennsylvania anthra cite mines, production in May declined dras tically to the lowest level in two decades, as operations at most collieries were virtually sus pended until a new wage contract was signed. Output of hard coal was 28 per cent smaller in the first five months this year than last and below that of any similar period since 1940. Although restrictions on new construction have been eased somewhat, increases in activity in this field may be limited for some months by the tight supply situation in key building mate rials, including lumber, most forms of steel, and plumbing and heating equipment. Port land cement, face brick, and certain types of wall board are available in sufficient quantities to permit a substantially higher rate of construc tion activity than now prevails. Manpower pre viously lost to war industry may be recovered to a considerable extent by munitions cut-backs scheduled in coming months. Total expenditures for construction in the United States increased about 6 per cent in May Page Eight 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 to an estimated $444 million, and were nearly 15 per cent greater than a year earlier. The gains in both the month and year reflected con tinued expansion in the dollar volume of pri vately financed undertakings. With most of the military installations and facilities for expand ing productive capacity for war material com pleted or nearing completion, publicly financed construction is declining rapidly. In this district the dollar volume of new con tracts awarded declined sharply from the excep tionally high level reached in April. Awards for all types of construction except factory building and unclassified projects, which include municipal and other public buildings, showed large percentage decreases from May 1944. Ac tivity in residential building is expected to in crease soon owing to a recent authorization for the construction of some 2,000 dwellings needed to relieve the tight housing situation in the Philadelphia area. Unseasonably cool weather in May continued to retard the growth of crops, and frequent heavy rains further delayed field work in most parts of this district. Late frosts again damaged some orchard fruits and garden vegetables. Higher temperatures in June resulted in a de cided improvement in the condition of most field and truck crops. Pastures have continued to furnish abundant feed for livestock, and pro duction of milk has risen to a high level. In spite of the repeated interruptions to sea sonal farming operations, the demand for work ers in most sections still exceeds the supply by TEXTILE ACTIVITY VALUE OF BUILDING CONTRACTS AWARDED EMPLOYEE - HOURS IN PENNSYLVANIA $ PERCENT third federal reserve district TOTAL COTTON GOODS { , WOOLENS /'"'AND WORSTEDS VvPUBLIC WORKS J—AND UTILITIES 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 a wide margin. Employment on farms increased less than seasonally from May to June in the country as a whole and was nearly 3 per cent less than a year earlier. The difficulty farmers are experiencing in meeting their labor require ments is reflected in a continuing advance in wage rates, which have almost doubled in the past three years. By June 1, monthly wage rates, with and without board, had reached the highest levels in records covering over two decades. Farm cash income in Pennsylvania, New Jer sey and Delaware declined somewhat in April and was a little less than in the same month last year. Receipts from the sale of both crops and livestock products showed decreases from March, and income from livestock products mar keted was below the level of April 1944. In come in the four months ended April was $236 million—about 5 per cent greater than a year earlier. The movement of rail freight in this section increased less than seasonally during May, fol lowing the reversal of traffic originally sched uled for trans-Atlantic shipment. Freight-car loadings, on an adjusted basis, declined 5 per cent from April and were 4 per cent less than a year ago. Decreases in the month occurred in all commodity classifications, except coke, which showed a larger than seasonal rise. Shipments of merchandise and miscellaneous freight were somewhat larger than in May 1944, while in other categories declines ranged to nearly 20 per cent. Total loadings in the first five months were down 3 per cent from a year ago. 1940 1942 Til iJ I 1943 1944 Wholesale trade sales decreased some what in May following a sharp rise in the pre ceding month. Smaller sales of drugs, dry goods, hardware, and paper more than offset increases in other lines ranging from 4 per cent in shoes to 13 per cent in groceries. Total dol lar volume was 3 per cent less than a year ago, although sales in the five months ended May showed an increase of like amount over the cor responding period of 1944. Wholesalers’ inven tories in the aggregate did not change signif icantly from April to May, but they were about one-tenth smaller than a year earlier. Trade. Retail sales generally increased in May from unusually low levels reached in April, when stores were closed for one day, following the death of President Roosevelt. On an adjusted basis, the dollar volume at department stores in this district increased 4 per cent in the month to about the level of May 1944. Sales by women’s apparel stores were about one-fourth larger than in April, and they exceeded those of a year ago by 12 per cent. At shoe stores, the gain was 6 per cent in May, but sales were down by that percentage from a year earlier. Busi ness at establishments specializing in men’s ap parel remained near the April level, and was 7 per cent less than in May of last year. Inventories at retail stores in this district in creased contra-seasonally in May, with gains over the twelve months indicated in all report ing lines but shoes. The value of orders out standing placed by department stores has been declining for three successive months. At the close of May, nevertheless, commitments were nearly one-fifth greater than a year ago. Page Nine By the latter part of June, sales of E bonds, so important in the over-all objective of holding down inflationary pressures, were still materially short of the quota set for this security in the Seventh War Loan. Total sales to individuals, however, had reached quota and sales to corporate investors were double the goal. Loan drive results in the three states of the Third Federal Reserve District were simi lar to those shown for the country as a whole. Banking conditions. DEPOSITS AND EARNING ASSETS THIRD FED. RES. DISTRICT REPORTING MEMBER BANKS MILLIONS 3000 DEPOSITS 2800 2600 2400 2200 No small part of the huge volume of sales was made possible by active extension of bank credit. This credit was made available both through loans and through purchases of out standing securities. Reporting banks in leading cities of this district increased their holdings of Government securities by $310 million or 17 per cent over the four-week period ended June 20. Allowing for exchanges of maturing cer tificates and guaranteed bonds for Treasury notes on June 1, it appears that the largest pur chases were of certificates and bonds. Loan expansion was less of a factor here than in the national totals. Nevertheless, loans on Governments to brokers and dealers by report ing institutions moved up from an average of $6 million in May to $19 million on June 13, and dropped back to $11 million on the 20th. Simi lar advances to other customers increased slowly early in June from a.level of approximately $5 million and then jumped to $35 million on June 20. Even at these expanded levels, loans to purchase or carry Governments accounted for less than 2 per cent of earning assets, as against 6 per cent for all reporting banks in the United States. The increase of $367 million in total loans and investments over a four-week period was the largest in any loan drive, and it was paralleled by corresponding growth in deposits. Material changes were shown in the deposit structure. Customers’ balances, as reflected in adjusted demand and time deposits, increased $100 mil lion over the first three weeks to a record high point of $2,244 million. But in the following week they dropped $240 million as quarterly income taxes were paid and marketable secur ities in the loan drive were opened up to cor porate and institutional investors. United States Government deposits at reporting banks increased over $450 million in this week. Wide spread use of credits to war loan accounts in Page Ten LOANS AND _ INVESTMENTS 2000 J JASON 0AJ FMAMJJASON 0AJ f M A M J J A S O ND, 1943 1944 making payment for Government securities was reflected for the district as a whole in an in crease in balances with depository banks from $398 million on May 23 to $1,074 million on June 20. The record shows that payments out of bank reserves also were in substantial volume over the four-week period. Treasury receipts in the Third District were $100 million larger than the continuing heavy disbursements characteristic of the war period. Currency in circulation in creased, but the amount involved was less than usual, suggesting that hand-to-hand money had been used in part for security purchases and tax payments. These transactions, tending to re duce member bank reserves, were much more than offset by heavy gains in interdistrict com mercial and financial operations, probably re sulting in part from sales of Government se curities by investors who were adjusting their portfolios in anticipation of purchases during the Seventh War Loan. Surplus funds were absorbed in part by a re duction in Federal Reserve credit extended directly in the district, with the result that bank reserves increased only $23 million to $795 mil lion. Reserve Bank advances to member banks reached a 1945 high of nearly $40 million in the middle of June, but by the 20th of the month had declined to $3 million, showing a net de crease of $8 million over the past four weeks. The principal change in credit supplied locally, however, was a decrease in Treasury bills held under repurchase option from $200 million to approximately $162 million. BUSINESS STATISTICS Production Employment and Income Philadelphia Federal Reserve District in Pennsylvania Adjusted for seasonal variation Per cent change Indexes: 1923-5=100 May 1945 from May Apr. May 1945 1945 1944 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION MANUFACTURING............ Durable goods...................... Consumers’ goods.............. Metal products..................... Textile products................... Transportation equipment. Food products....................... Tobacco and products........ Building materials................ Chemicals and products.... Leather and products........... Paper and printing................ Individual lines Pig iron...................................... Steel............................................ Silk manufactures.................. Woolen and worsteds............ Cotton products...................... Carpets and rugs.................... Hosiery...................................... Underwear................................ Cement...................................... Brick.......................................... Lumber and products........... Bread and bakery products. Slaughtering, meat packing. Sugar refining.......................... Canning and preserving.... Cigars......................................... Paper and wood pulp........... Printing and publishing. . . . Shoes.......................................... Leather, goat and kid........... Paints and varnishes............. Coke, by-product................... COAL MINING........................ Anthracite................................. Bituminous............................... CRUDE OIL.............................. ELECTRIC POWER.............. Sales, total................................ Sales to industries.................. BUILDING CONTRACTS TOTAL AWARDSf................. Residential t............................. Nonresidentialf...................... Public works and utilitiesf.. 126p 133p 195p 90p 171 63p 428 ll7p 93 35 165p 87p 96 136 140 210 92 179r 65 481 120 99 36 174r 82 94 149 153 237 95 185 70 604 123 r 96 35 159r U3r 94 89 86 r 97 127 130r 131 84 83 86 62p 64 64 42 40 46 53p 54 54 61 65 70 130 138 142 23 27 29 48 50 47 35 33 33 Mo. ago Year ago - 7 - 5 - 7 - 2 - 4 - 2 -11 - 3 - 6 - 1 - 5 + 5 + 2 - 15 13 18 5 7 9 S3 5 3 0 + 4 - 23 + 3 + + + + + - + 90 - 70 + 25 +262 104 101 95 105 165p 166 92 98 82 83 99 96 108 99 66p 66 86 86 150p 155 39 83 r 31 82 103 95r 323 322 446 431 435 424 326 350 126 107 163r 95 84 96 131 96 r 94 164 88 84 116 366 439 441 341 r + 3 - 2 + 2 - 3 + 4 - 3 - 6 - 6 -13 - 3 + 5 - 4* + 3 - 9 - 1 - 7 - 1 + 3 + « + 1 0 - 3 -53 -62 + 9 0 + 4 + 3 - 7 74 4 56 425 39 14 44 117 - 9 +n -26 +30 81 4 75 327 * Unadjusted for seasonal variation. 13-month moving daily average centered at 3rd month. 8 4 2 4 8 2 13 8 19 2 8 1* 18 11 i 4 2 3 18 31 8 8 55 63 11 12 2 1 5 Not adj us ted 1945 from 5 mos. 1944 10 - 9 - 13 - 3 6 6 - 21 0 - 3 - - 1 + 5 - 16 + 1 - 6 - 3 3 + 1 + + + + - 23 10 8 4 - 21 + - 10 - 23 - 4 - 4 - 21 - 23 - 12 - 15 + 2 0 - 1 + 41 - 82 + 41 +200 May Apr. May 1945 1945 1944 Factory employment April 1945 May 1944 Fac■tory payrolls April 1945 May 1944 Building permits value April 1945 May 1944 125p 134 131p 137 147 151 169 61p 445 112p 90 36 167p 79p 97 172r 63 498 115 90 35 176r 81 96 182 67 625 115r 93 36 I62r 103r 95 92 133 81 58p 41 52p 61 131 26 51 33 121 105 117 134p 89 82 100 98 60p 91 156p 38 31 93 335 415 417 332 97 r 136r 81 59 42 53 65 135 26 52 32 127 99 136 140 89 84 98 99 64r 91 r 161 82 r 82 87 r 332 422 436 353 101 138 83 61 45 53 70 143 32 50 30 123 126 132 125r 92 84 97 119 87 100 170 86 84 104 381 409 423 348 71 4 59 298 78 3 77 301 38 15 47 82 April 1945 + + + + + 2 5 1 9 2 0 2 1 6 7 - 6 + 9 - 3 - 1 -88 + 7 + 1 + 2 - 1 + 1 0 - 1 + 2 + 1 - 1 - 6 - 7 -89 -12 - 3 -10 - 4 0 + 9 - 1 + 2 - 3 - 9 310 468 9 330 110 252 258 152 159 150 183 182 182 — 2 - 3 -90 +62 - 4 + 4 + 3 0 — 1 - 2 + 4 — 1 - 2 — 7 —91 -10 —17 — 10 + 8 + 5 + 2 + 8 - 5 Employment* Payrolls* Per cent Per cent May chang efrom May changefrom 1945 1945 index Apr. May index Apr. May 1945 1944 1945 1944 Indexes: 1923-5 —100 TOTAL..................................... Iron, steel and products... Nonferrous metal products Transportation equipment Textiles and clothing.......... Textiles................................. Clothing................................ Food products....................... Stone, clay and glass............ Lumber products................. Chemicals and products. . . Leather and products......... Paper and printing.............. Printing................................. Others: Cigars and tobacco............ Rubber tires, goods........... Musical instruments......... 110 120 220 141 75 69 97 120 80 50 115 70 99 94 - 1 - 1 0 - 4 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 2 0 0 0 - 1 0 + 1 - 7 - 6 +n -18 - 6 - 5 - 9 0 - 7 - 1 - 1 - 4 - 1 +1 191 263 462 253 118 110 157 186 128 85 212 117 155 141 - 3 2 2 8 2 2 4 4 0 1 1 2 2 3 - 7 - 6 + 9 -20 - 2 - 1 - 6 0 - 3 + 5 + 2 + 3 + 5 + 8 48 144 86 - 1 - 1 -14 -10 - 3 +1 74 305 113 - 1 - 3 -18 - 1 + 1 -25 + + * Figures from 2800 plants. Hours and Wages Debits May 1944 124 171 5 69 45 76 130 97 121 102 103 99 97 Manufacturing Factory workers Averages May 1945 and per cent change from year ago Retail sales Payrolls Per cent Per cent May chang efrom May changefrom 1945 1945 index Apr. May index Apr. May 1945 1944 1945 1944 GENERAL INDEX............ Manufacturing...................... Anthracite mining................ Bituminous coal mining. . . Building and construction.. Quar. and nonmet. mining. Crude petroleum prod......... Public utilities...................... Retail trade........................... Wholesale trade.................... Hotels...................................... Laundries............................... Dyeing and cleaning........... p—Preliminary, r—Revised. Allentown........... 0 0 - 8 + 2 - 57 - 95 +10 Altoona................ 0 + 3 - 2 + 8 +132 +169 + 6 Harrisburg.......... — 3 — 3 + 1 +117 +336 + 6 Johnstown.......... — 2 — 7 0 - 26 + 47 +11 Lancaster.... + 1 —13 0 -12 - 22 - 49 + 5 Philadelphia. . . . - 1 -10 - 4 -10 + 7 Reading............... - 1 - 2 - 1 + 2 - 3 +183 + 9 Scranton.............. 0 + 2 — 4 + 2 - 16 - 2 + 2 Trenton............... - 14 - 32 +13 Wilkes-Barre.... 0 + 4 - 2 +12 +209 + 87 + 8 Williamsport... . — 9 — 5 - 8 4- 34 + 38 Wilmington........ - 5 -18 - 9 -23 +229 + 42 + 3 York — 3 - 1 - 3 4- 4» — - «iy 59 — - 49 +15 ............................... ....................... *"____r * Area not restricted to the corporate limits of cities given here Employment Indexes: 1932 =100 Local Business Conditions* Percentage change— May 1945 from month and year ago Industry, Trade and Service 1945 1944 + 7 + 6 + 4 + 6 - 1 + 8 - 4 + 9 +28 + 9 + 4 0 + 8 +22 +33 +10 +12 -10 +18 +14 +13 +17 +18 +18 + 18 +32 Wee kly work ing tim 5* Hourly earniilg8* Weekly earningst Aver age Ch’ge Aver Ch’ge Aver Ch’ge hours age age 44.2 — 3 $1.092 + 3 $47 96 0 45.7 — 3 1.151 + 3 52.58 0 45.2 — 2 1.022 + 3 4-6.19 + 1 44.0 — 8 1.307 + 4 57.47 - 4 39.1 — 2 .814 + 7 31.66 + 4 40.1 — ] .814 + 4 33.16 + 5 36.5 — 2 .783 + 8 28.45 + 4 43.1 — 3 .831 + 2 36.38 0 41.7 0 .955 + 4 39.68 + 5 43.1 — 2 .799 + 5 34.21 + 3 46.5 + 2 1.074 + 2 49.84 + 3 42.4 + 1 .788 + 5 33.46 + 7 44.6 + 2 .946 + 5 42.42 + 7 42.2 + 4 1.106 + 6 46.85 + 9 TOTAL............................. Iron, steel and prods.. .. Nonfer. metal prods.. . Transportation equip.. Textiles and clothing. . Textiles........................ Clothing....................... Food products.............. Stone, clay and glass.. Lumber products......... Chemicals and prods... Leather and products. Paper and printing. . . Printing........................ Others: Cigars and tobacco. . 42.3 Rubber tires, goods. . 44.2 Musical instruments. 38.7 * Figures from 2656 plants. + 1 .662 +K) 28.01 + 11 0 1.060 + 3 46.87 + 3 -20 .885 - 8 34.26 -26 t Figures from 2800 plants. Page Eleven Distribution and Prices Wholesale trade Unadjusted for seasonal variation Per cent change May 1945 1945 frt>m from 5 Month Year mos. 1944 ago ago Sales Total of all lines................... Boots and shoes.................. Drugs..................................... Dry goods........._.................. Electrical supplies............. Groceries............................... Hardware............................. Jewelry................................. Paper..................................... - 2 + 4 - 5 - 6 + 5 +13 -16 + 5 - 3 - 3 -15 0 -19 +18 + 7 + 4 -15 -17 + 6 -14 +12 + 11 + 10 -14 - 7 184 0 106 130 107 99 0 +1 +1 0 128 + 127 + 138 + 146 109 144 121 of Labor + 84 + + + + + 41 +113 + 59 + 24 + 2 1 + 3 1 3 + 4 + 6 0 0 0 0 + 8 + 1 0 Statistics. May April May 1945 1945 1944 Sales Department stores—District........................ Philadelphia............... Women's apparel.............................................. 162p 151 180 138 147 152 143 158 129 125 161 154r 161 148 157 159 156 197 69 153 152 181 64 150 149 177 76 - 3 +1 +1 -13 + 9 - 7 -18 0 -11 146 139 92 133 288 209 109 135 107 144 140 96 141 208 178 103 147 111 152 137 89 165 301 216 131 137 127 +19 +n 134 140 113 -73* -81* +17 4 2 -63* + 7 191 3 1 184 16 10 163r 168p 163 189 148 119 162 152 150r 150 112 168 165r 169 160 127 + 4 + 7 +26 - 1 + 6 + 8* +1 - 2 +12 - 7 - 6 - 7* 158 156 205 63 149 14Q 181 58 150 149 183 69 + 7 + 4 +13 + 9 - 2* + 6 + 5 +12 - 9 + 5* 144 135 92 150 227 246 113 145 117 151 141 96 177 401 220 123 158 121 151 133 89 185 237 255 136 147 140 - 5 - 4 - 4 -15 -43 +12 - 8 - 8 - 3 - 4 + 2 + 3 -19 - 4 - 3 -17 - 2 -16 MISCELLANEOUS Life insurance sales.......................................... Business liquidations 136 140 114 - 3 Check payments.............................................. 191 163r +50* +67* + 2 + 10 + 8 +17 +13 + 6 Inventories +1 2 6 2 1 Not adju sted RETAIL TRADE Shoe...................................................................... Per ce it chan ?e from May Year Aug. Month 1945 1939 ago ago Basic commodities (Aug. 1939=100). .. . Wholesale (1926=100)................ Farm............................. Food.............................. Other............................ Living costs (1935-1939=100).. . . United States............. Philadelphia............... Food............................ Clothing..................... F uels........................... Housefurnishing8. . . Other.......................... Source: U. S. Bureau Indexes: 1935-1939 =100 + 3 Inventories -10 Total of all lines................... +1 Dry goods............................ -43 +14 Electrical supplies............. +23 +« - 2 Groceries.............................. -ii - 4 - 2 Hardware............................. 0 -19 Jewelry................................. -22 0 Paper..................................... Source: U. S. Department of Commerce. Prices Ac juste d for a easonal varial ion Per cent ch mge May 1945 1945 May April May from from 1945 1945 1944 5 Month Year mos. ago ago 1944 + + + + + + + 30 30 48 47 13 43 20 FREIGHT-CAR LOADINGS Merchandise and miscellaneous................... Merchandise—l.c.l............................................ Coal...................................................................... Coke..................................................................... Forest products...................... ■......................... Grain and products......................................... Livestock............................................................ * Computed from unadjusted data. 188 p—Preliminary. r—Revised. BANKING STATISTICS MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND RELATED FACTORS Changes in— Reporting member banks (Millions $) June 20, 1945 Assets Commercial loans................ $ 202 52 Loans to brokers, etc.......... 48 Other loans to carry secur.. 33 Loans on real estate........... 1 Loans to banks..................... 141 Other loans............................ Four weeks + + + 7 33 19 Oue year -$ + + + 38 18 35 3 5 39 Third Federal Reaerve District (Millions of dollars) May 30 June 6 June 13 June 20 Changes in four weeks Sources of funds: Reserve Bank credit extended in district........................... Commercial transfers (chictly interdistrict)....................... Treasury operations.................................................................. +12.2 +27.0 -31.9 - 9.0 +25.3 +16.9 -17.7 +45.5 - 1.7 -28.8 +85.2 -85.5 - 43.3 +183.0 -102.2 Total............................................................................................. + 7.3 +33.2 +26.1 -29.1 + 37.5 + + + - 5.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 - 1.6 +35.4 - 0.6 + 0.0 + 8.7 +15.7 + 1.8 - 0.1 - 5.0 -29.6 + 5.2 + 0.3 + 7.4 + 23.1 + 6.9 + 0.1 + 7.3 +33.2 +26.1 -29.1 + 37.5 Changes in weeks ended — Uses of funds: Currency demand.................. .................................................... Member bank reserve deposits............................................... “Other deposits” at Reserve Bank....................................... Other Federal Reserve accounts............................................ Total loans........................... $ 477 +$ 59 +$ 46 Government securities.... $2100 Obligations fully guar’teed. 173 Other securities.................... +$364 - 54 2 +$529 - 54 Total............................................................................................. Total investments............. $2273 +$308 +$475 Total loans & investments. $2750 Reserve with F. R. Bank.. . 448 30 Cash in vault......................... Balances with other banks.. 85 43 Other assets—net................. +$367 + 2 +$521 + 27 Member bank reserves (Daily averages; + - + - Liabilities Demand deposits, adjusted. $1796 208 Time deposits................. .. • . U. S. Government deposits. 687 Interbank deposits.............. 404 Borrowings............................. 16 Other liabilities..................... 245 Capital account.................... Page Twelve 6 5 Ex cess 5 10 1944: June 1-15.. -$138 + i + 455 + 60 8 Re Held quired +$ 16 + 29 + 437 + 47 1 1 + 16 May 16-31. . Country banks May 16-31. . June 1-15. . $403 430 438 465 $394 421 428 450 9 9 10 15 283 335 336 346 228 271 271 269 55 64 65 77 Federal Reserve Ratio Bank of Phila. (Dollar figures in of millions) excess) to required Discounts and Industrial loans.... 2% U. S. securities......... 2 Total......................... 2 Note circulation.. . . 3 Member bk. deposits U. S. general account Foreign deposits... . 24 Other deposits......... 24 (iold certif. reserves. 24 Reserve ratio............. 29 Changes in June 20, 1945 Four weeks 2.6 1377.3 $ 8 3 -J 1.0 + 18.9 +$ 1.1 2.2 + 358.8 +$ 9.6 + 10.4 + 23.1 + 6.4 + 6.0 + 6.9 + 38.3 + 0.7% +$357.7 + 255.1 + 100.0 + 33.6 - 34.2 + 2.6 + 4.0 7.1% $1383.0 1508.1 794.6 34.8 106.7 11.2 1057.9 43.1% One year