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T ; y\ J BUSINESS REVIEW M9£| FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA JULY I, 1946 Expansion of Consumer Spending * The end of the war with Japan was not fol lowed by declines in activity of the magnitudes predicted in many quarters. Retooling of indus try for peacetime production required much less time than was originally anticipated. In spite of the delays in industrial production caused by strikes in key industries such as automobiles, steel, electrical machinery, coal, and others the slack has been taken up by expansion in other lines of activity. Consumer income has been sustained at a high level since V-J Day and probably the most unexpected trend has been the continued upsurge of consumer spending. Consumer expenditures during the first quar ter of this year were at an annual rate of $120 billion compared with only $105 billion in the same period a year ago which at that time rep resented the wartime peak. This expansion occurred despite the fact that durable goods, which were counted upon to bolster the market, had not yet been produced in sufficient quantity to be an important factor. * The so-called spending spree is really nothing unusual in the light of past relationships be tween the flow of income and consumer habits of spending. It is commonly agreed that con sumer spending is largely determined by con sumer incomes. During the past year, total income has remained at a high level because the anticipated net decline in manufacturing employment failed to occur and employment in creased in nonmanufacturing industries. In crease in wage rates was also an important factor. Income payments to individuals in the first quarter of this year were at an annual rate of $156 billion, only 5 per cent lower than a year ago. The current financial position of con sumers was improved by the decline in personal taxes and nontax payments from a rate of $22 billion to $17 billion. As a result, disposable income of individuals was only 1 per cent below last year. During the war, shortages of goods and patri otism were incentives for tremendous increases in savings of individuals in the form of Govern ment securities, bank deposits, and currency. These savings during the war were extremely high even in relation to expanded incomes. With cessation of hostilities, payroll deductions for purchases of Government securities dropped off and the annual rate of savings declined to $19 billion in the first quarter of this year compared with $37 billion in the same period a year ago. According to the U. S. Department of Com merce, the current rate of saving is the rate nor mally expected at the present level of income. Supplementary sources of consumer spending are accumulated savings and availability of credit. The end of the war found both sources in excellent condition. Personal holdings of liquid assets had tripled during the war to about Page 67 $150 billion and consumer debt declined 50 per durables by impatient consumers. Third, fear cent from a peak of $10 billion to $5 billion. of inflation may have stimulated sales. Antici The credit rating of the consumer was high and pated relaxation of OPA regulations which were increased purchases out of future income have expected to be followed by higher prices has already been evident with a rise in consumer probably resulted in advance buying of nondur debt to $7.4 billion by the end of April. There ables and, of course, would also have expanded is little question that use of credit will increase sales of durables had they been available to the further as durable items which are normally public. sold on the instalment plan reach the market While some of the expansion in current activ in greater quantity. Sales promotion campaigns by aggressive credit managers will also expand ity can be attributed to conditions which give use of credit. Many consumers appear to be re only a temporary boost to sales, the outlook is luctant to part with their savings and are con for continued high levels of retail business. templating the use of credit facilities which Wear and tear on consumer household and per are being made available from a variety of sonal goods and the addition of many new family units have created a demand for merchan competitive sources. dise that cannot be satisfied for some time. Men Although there are whispered fears of a pos in the retail field expect the present large vol sible buyers’ strike, there is little indication ume of spending to continue. Demand for soft from current activity that this is likely to occur goods is expected to sustain the market until the on a mass scale in the near future. Consumer continuous flow of hard goods can take up the demand continues strong for all types of goods. slack. A real buyers’ strike is not expected if Of the $15 billion increase in the annual rate of prices continue at reasonable levels. Mainte consumer spending over a year ago, almost $11 nance of such levels depends upon the continued billion represented increased spending for non flow of goods, increased supplies in some in durable goods. Spending on durable goods and stances, reasonable restraint in the buying prac services is still lagging far behind the volume tices of consumers, and other factors including expected at the present high levels of income. costs and efficiency of production and distri Spending on durables, of course, has been bution. limited by the supply of goods. Future demand Department Store Sales for these items should greatly exceed the volume in the Third Federal Reserve District ordinarily to be expected at current levels of income because of the demand that accumulated Department store activity in this district more during the war. Even though spending on non than matched the national expansion in total durable goods may not hold at the present high consumer expenditures in the early months of levels, any reduction will probably be taken up this year. Sales during the first five months by spending on durables and services. The greatest change that is likely to occur if incomes are maintained is a shift in the buying pattern— CHART I a shift from nondurable goods to durable goods DEPARTMENT STORE SALES AND STOCKS and service. THIRD FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Current spending on nondurable goods in vol ume greater than is normally to be expected at the present level of income, seems to reflect in large part the temporary influence of three fac tors on the market. First, the return of members of the armed forces expanded the group of civil ian consumers. Their effect on the market is clearly shown in the gain in sales of men’s ap parel. Once their accumulated needs for cloth ing and other items are satisfied there will probably be some leveling off in sales of this type. Second, the failure of durable goods to appear on the market because of strikes may have resulted in accelerated spending for non Page 68 SALES' ■STOCKS were 25 per cent above a year ago and have continued especially strong through May and the first two weeks of June with increases of approximately 35 per cent. (See Chart I.) These gains are greater than in any comparable pe riod during the wartime boom. current volume of business accounted for only about the same proportion of total sales that prevailed in 1941. The home furnishings de partments suffered most from supply shortages and there is little likelihood that demand will be satisfied for many months to come. Increased spending is general for all types of goods. Only four of the 34 principal depart ments showed declines in activity, and the only large decline was in women’s and children’s hosiery where shortages of merchandise re stricted buying. Inventories The influence of the returning veteran is re flected in sales of men’s clothing. As veterans were transferred to the army of civilian buyers, supplies of many apparel items were quickly exhausted, and purchases have continued to be determined by availability of goods. While the supply problem has shown some improve ment since the beginning of the year, critical shortages persist in many items and the outlook for sales is good for some time. In the case of men’s coats and suits for example, inventories at the end of January were only one-third the volume of a year earlier, and the available goods in large part were not the seasonal items then in demand. In each succeeding month, however, stocks have gradually improved and at the end of April had increased to two-thirds of the supply in the previous year. As supply improved, sales also showed continuously in creasing gains after the turn of the year and in April were 119 per cent over the same month a year ago compared with only a 4 per cent gain in January. Availability of merchandise continues to de termine the volume of sales for many types of goods. While retailers feel that there has been some improvement in supply, recovery has been CHART H DEPARTMENT STORE INVENTORIES NUMBER OF MONTHS’ SUPPLY ON HAND THIRD FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT MAIN STORE-TOTAL APRIL 30,1946 APRIL 30,1941 \//\ BASEMENT STORE-TOTAL WOMEN'S APPAREL AND ACCESSORIES COATS AND SUITS DRESSES BLOUSES, SKIRTS, SPORTSWEAR ■AINIORS* AND GIRLS’ WEAR UNDERWEAR, SLIPS, NEGLIGEES INFANTS' WEAR WOMENS AND CHILDREN'S SHOES WOMEN'S AND CHILDREN’S HOSIERY MEN’S AND BOYS’ WEAR 777777m MEN’S CLOTHING MENS FURNISHINGS, HATS, CAPS BOYS'CLOTHING AND FURNISHINGS 777777A MENS AND BOYS’ SHOES AND SLIPPERS HOME FURNISHINGS Sales of home furnishings, which include the bulk of durable goods sold at department stores, gave added impetus to over-all gains. They accounted for 48 per cent of the total increase in department store sales during the first four months of this year compared with a year ago. The gains from last year ranged between 30 and 50 per cent for all principal departments in this group with the exception of major household appliances, which increased 553 per cent. This large gain in appliance sales, however, is very misleading because it reflects a gain over a very negligible amount of business that prevailed throughout the late war years. Actually, sales of appliances thus far this year account for well under one-half of their normal proportion of total activity. Despite increases in the combined sales of all home furnishing departments, the YZZZZ/a 7777777777 7777A FURNITURE, BEOS, MATTRESSES, SPRINGS DOMESTIC FLOOR COVERINGS DRAPERIES, CURTAINS, UPHOLSTERY MAJOR HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES 7//////////1 DOMESTICS, BLANKETS, LINENS, ETC 7ZZZZZZA CHINA AND GLASSWARE HOUSEWARES SMALL WARES NOTIONS TOILET ARTICLES, DRUG SUNDRIES, ETC. 77777A JEWELRY AND SILVERWARE 77777777/7\ MISCELLANEOUS I 2 3 4 5 6 7 MONTHS'SUPPLY IN TERMS OF APRIL SALES Page 69 slow. Eight of the 34 large departments showed actual declines in inventories at the end of April compared with a year ago. These departments were restricted to the clothing groups, with men’s clothing and furnishings leading the list. Gains in other groups are misleading when we consider that the data in many cases reflect changes from very low levels and that actually supplies are extremely low today. The areas of shortest supply are suggested in Chart II which shows the number of months’ supply of goods on hand at the end of April this year compared with April 1941. Housefurnishings, men’s and boys’ wear, and piece goods departments are most affected. Inventories compared best in some women’s apparel depart ments, notions, toilet articles, and basement de partments. The trend away from purchases in basement departments explains to a large extent the improved supply situation there. While total inventories continue to lag well behind sales, the consumer can find real solace in the fact that stocks on hand have continued to increase since the beginning of the year even in the face of greatly expanding sales. (See Chart I.) Department store executives indicate that they are following this trend with keen interest and are exercising due caution in main taining quality merchandise insofar as possible. Ersatz goods have largely disappeared from the counters and shelves. As supplies of improved quality increase, re placed items will be difficult to move at a profit. Bulky boxer shorts that were sold at $2 during the war as a substitute for more comfortable men’s underwear are now being placed on sale at less than half the original price. Broadcloth shorts with gripper fasteners are now available at 75 cents or less. Metal toys are rapidly re placing the substitute paper, wooden, and plas tic items that now fail to satisfy youthful buyers. These are only a few examples that indicate improvement in supply and the tendency of con sumers to be more cautious in their buying as merchandise of real quality appears on the mar ket. Some of the first durable consumer goods to appear on the market now prove to be inferior in quality and costly in comparison with pre-war items. Increased Use of Credit The war boom was accompanied by a substan tial reduction in the use of credit for consumer purchases. As pay envelopes grew fatter, pur chasers did more buying on a cash basis. At department stores in this district, cash sales in creased from approximately 40 per cent of total business in 1941 to 55 per cent in late war years. During the same period, charge account volume dropped from 50 per cent to 40 per cent and instalment transactions were cut from 10 to 5 per cent. (See Table I.) Table I SHIFTS IN THE PATTERN OF CREDIT BUYING AT DEPARTMENT STORES Distribution of total sales by type of transaction Total sales 100 100 41 55 49 40 10 5 100 100 100 100 100 56 54 54 50 51 39 41 42 44 45 5 5 4 6 4 1946: May.............................................. Charge Instalmen t sales acct. sales This new pattern in type of transaction re mained almost constant through the last three war years, but since the beginning of this year there appears to be a shift back toward the pre war pattern. Although there has been little change in the use of instalment credit at depart ment stores, the trend has been quite marked in the case of charge account credit. Charge ac count sales have increased steadily from 39 per cent of total sales in January to 45 per cent in May. Instalment sales are also expected to in crease proportionately as durable goods, which are normally sold on time, become available in larger quantities. 0*— ■•••&— Page 70 Gash sales Jobs in Pennsylvania Industries Manufacturing employment during the first nine months of peace reflects both the progress and the pitfalls of industrial demobilization. Physical reconversion was accomplished so fast that it had relatively few ill effects upon em ployment. Wage-rate reconversion proved a bigger stumbling block than plant recondition ing. Pennsylvania affords a good cross-section of industrial employment. Before the war, manu facturing plants of the state employed almost one million people or about one-third of the working population of the Commonwealth. Al most every one of the 450 industries classified by the census is represented here. Manufac turing plants are widely dispersed throughout the state, which has more industrial cities of 10,000 inhabitants and over than any other state in the country. In 1939, manufacturing plants in this area converted almost $3 billion worth of raw materials into more than $5 billion worth of finished products of all kinds. New York is the only state that employed more people and produced more manufactured products than Pennsylvania. Background for Peace In producing for national defense, manufac turing employment in Pennsylvania increased from almost a million workers to a peak- in November 1943 of more than a million and a half. Expansion occurred in every major line of industry except textiles and leather. The war by-passed these two industries very largely because they produce consumer goods for the most part inapplicable to military needs. The principal textiles of this area are silk and rayon and women’s hosiery. Likewise in the leather industry, a large number of plants in this area are shoe manufacturing concerns specializing in women’s and children’s shoes which were ra tioned during the emergency. Employment During the First Nine Months of Peace Although many changes occurred in plant personnel immediately after the end of hostili ties, the transition to peace was accomplished with very little recession in total manufacturing employment. From August to September 1945 many jobs vanished in such industries as metals, machinery, and transportation equipment. However, such losses were offset in part by in creased employment in foods, tobacco, paper, printing, and petroleum. The net decrease in employment in the first post-war month was only 12 per cent. The decline was smaller and of shorter duration than many had anticipated. Immediately thereafter employment rose under the stimulus of an almost insatiable demand for goods of every kind. Interruptions to expanding employment aris ing out of labor-management disputes occurred earlier in the automobile industry, but such diffi culties did not strike heavily in Pennsylvania until January when workers and management in the steel industry came to an impasse. In that month the electrical industries were also con fronted by demands for higher wages. Strikes in these two large industries were primarily responsible for the over-all 20 per cent decline in employment in February as indicated in the accompanying chart. The entire peace-time gain of about 75,000 workers immediately after POST-WAR JOBS AND EARNINGS IN PENNSYLVANIA MANUFACTURING (SEPTEMBER 1945*100) PAYROLLS' V'-EMPLOYMENT The job of expanding production in the early months of the national defense effort was done so well that many plants reduced their working force 20 months before the end of the war. In the period from November 1943 to the capitula tion of Japan, manufacturing employment de clined 14 per cent to a level of 1% million workers. SEPT OCT NOV 1945 OEC JAN. rEB. MAN APR. 1946 Page 71 the war was temporarily wiped out by inability to work out mutually satisfactory wage con tracts. But manufacturing employment re covered rapidly after settlement of the steel strike and by April was close to the January level. In May, however, the fuel shortage brought about by the prolonged dispute in the soft coal industry caused a slight decline. Thus strikes have delayed employment reconversion by several months. Production has been held back even more than the employment figures indicate. Since the industries involved in strikes were comparatively high-wage industries, wage pay ments to all manufacturing workers declined more than employment during the period of wage disputes and made a more substantial re covery after the settlement of the difficulties. Total earnings of wage earners in manufactur ing plants, which had advanced from an esti mated $38 million in September to $41 million in January, dropped to $30 million when the steel and electrical workers were idle. By April, payrolls were up to a new post-war peak esti mated at $44 million, and in May $43 million was paid out. These higher levels are indica tive of the basically strong recuperative powers of industry. Employment Changes in Major Industries After nine months of peace, manufacturing employment in most industries was above the immediate post-war levels notwithstanding fre quent labor-management disputes. Some of the greatest post-war gains in employment occurred in the durable goods industries, as shown in the accompanying chart. Rubber, clay, glass and stone, furniture, and nonferrous metal plants made the greatest percentage gains in employ ment. Employment in durable goods manufac turing in Pennsylvania, however, is influenced largely by what happens in steel. The iron and steel industry sets the pace because of the stra tegic position its products occupy in our machine economy. Steel plants, in fact, employ over onefourth of all factory workers in Pennsylvania. While employment in the steel industry rose only 6 per cent between September and May, expansion in this industry alone accounted for 18,000 new jobs—almost 30 per cent of the total increase in manufacturing employment. By May, employment in the machinery indus tries had advanced to a level which was 5 per cent above that prevailing at the end of the war. The relatively low level of employment EMPLOYMENT CHANGES IN PENNSYLVANIA MANUFACTURING FROM SEPTEMBER 1945 TO MAY 1946 PERCENT PERCENT NONFERROUS METALS LEATHER PRINTING CLAY & GLASS FURNITURE TEXTILES PAPER TOBACCO PETROLEUM CHEMICALS APPAREL STEEL MACHINERY AUTO LUMBER ELEC EQUIPMENT FOOD -37 TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT DURABLES Page 12 NONDURABLES during the preceding months had not been due to a lack of demand for the industry’s products, but to shortages of materials caused by strike bound suppliers as well as labor difficulties in the electrical division. Manufacturers of en gines, turbines, industrial and household equip ment had been handicapped by a deficiency of steel bars, castings, and sheets, but, temporarily at least, some of these difficulties had been over come. Electrical equipment manufacturers were not so well off. In some of the plants, workers were out on strike and in other plants copper was scarce because refinery workers were on strike. Employment increased substantially in the clay, glass and stone industries. Expansion in this group was accounted for largely by heavy demands for building materials such as cement, glass, and structural clay products. The only major line in which employment has fallen off sharply since the end of the war is in the manufacture of transportation equipment. Most of this shrinkage represents declining ac tivity in aircraft plants and in shipyards, which was to be expected. Some of the decline is also due to curtailed operations in railroad equip ment shops which were involved directly or in directly in the steel strike. In the nondurable goods industries, employ ment rose steadily in almost every major division. The textile and apparel industries are the largest employers among the nondurable goods producers. Each of these industrial groups, like steel and machinery in durable goods, employs workers in excess of a hundred thousand. Employment in textile mills of Penn sylvania expanded each successive month since the end of the war. Between September and May the textile industries increased their em ployment about 15,000, and in most lines output was still considerably short of demand. Some what lower-than-average wage levels in some of the plants in this group have been an obstacle in attracting the required number of workers. Manufacturers of apparel, the second largest employers of labor in nondurable goods indus tries, have augmented their employment moder ately—about 5,000 workers. Employment in apparel is, of course, largely dependent upon activity in the textile mills, and to meet imme diate post-war demands apparel manufacturers have tried to take on workers as fast as the textile mills could supply fabrics. Among the nondurables, the greatest expan sion in employment, percentage-wise, occurred in the leather industries—tanning and shoe manufacturing. However, in terms of new job openings, these industries were overshadowed by the printing trades, where actual employ ment increased by over 8,000 between Septem ber and May. The greater part of this expansion occurred in the newspaper and periodical divi sion. Attractive wage rates facilitated the sub stantial gains in employment in all branches of the printing industries. Employment in the food industries has de clined since the end of the war. To a large extent this decline is due to seasonally curtailed activity in canning. Limitations of raw materials in other food lines were also a factor. The Philadelphia Area Manufacturing employment in the Philadel phia area, as reported by the United States Employment Service, was less in May than in March. Reductions in shipbuilding and auto mobile employment, which are concentrated in the area, were largely responsible for the de cline. At the end of May the number of workers involved in industrial disputes in Philadelphia was very small. Labor bottlenecks, however, threatened in several industries, especially tex tiles, tobacco, and apparel. These industries use relatively low-wage and predominantly female labor; and although anticipated declines in shipbuilding and certain other “heavy” indus tries will release sufficient male workers to meet requirements during the summer, labor supply will probably be a continuing problem in those three fields. There is also a shortage of certain skilled workers. By May over two-thirds of the 290,000 veterans who returned to this area were em ployed. It is estimated that 60,000 veterans are looking for jobs. Because of their youth and physical fitness they constitute a valuable ad dition to the labor force. Basic Considerations Within a month or two after the war ended, manufacturing plants throughout the country had been retooled for civilian production, and Page 73 employment was expanding as rapidly as plants could obtain workers and material. Intensive activity and expanding employment seemed as sured by the combined forces of the virtually unlimited need for goods and the enormous spending power. Almost as soon as the rising indexes of production and employment gave promise that long-awaited civilian goods were at last on the way, industrial activity was inter rupted by an epidemic of strikes. First, they appeared in the automobile industry, later in steel, electrical machinery, meat packing, coal, and the railroads. By February, another allAmerican record had been established — the greatest number of man-days of working time lost as the result of strikes—a peak of over 20 million. of the largest costs in most enterprises. Devel opments during the first half of this year clearly demonstrate how wage increases push up prices. Workers received increases of 18% cents an hour in the automobile, steel, and bituminous coal industries. Price increases followed almost immediately in every instance. The average price of anthracite has just been advanced 91 cents a ton as a result of a wage increase in the hard coal industry. In one industry after another wage-rate re conversion temporarily improves the position of workers but unless accompanied by increased productivity the advantage of higher wages is apt to be wiped out by higher prices. Moreover, raising selling prices to safeguard profits may in turn be offset by renewed demands for higher Labor trouble is a symptom of maladjustments wages. The difficulties are most acute in the arising out of war. Workers are striving to sus durable goods industries where the greatest tain their wartime standards of living which are readjustments had to be made. In these lines it being undermined by reduced hours of work and is particularly urgent to avoid a futile race be rising cost of living. Unfortunately, settlement tween cost and prices. Later, when output and of a strike in one industry usually generates un demand are in closer balance, the forces of com settlement in others. Higher wages almost in petition may be counted upon to help preserve a variably spell higher prices because labor is one proper relationship between these factors. ..... Page 74 BUSINESS STATISTICS Employment and Income in Pennsylvania Production Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Adjusted for seasonal variation Indexes: 1923-5 =100 May Apr. May 1946 1946 1945 Mo. ago INDUSTRIALPRODUCTION MANUFACTURING............... 98p 103 126r 98p 105 133 111 195 99p 99 91 96 104 170 74p 73 64 143p 198 428 121p 120 120 121 128 93 40p 43 37 133p 136 164r 90p 84 88 114 115 96 Consumers’ goods................. Metal products........................ Textile products...................... Transportation equipment. . Food products......................... Tobacco and products.......... Building materials.................. Chemicals and products. . . . Leather and products........... Paper and printing................ Individual lines Pig iron..................................... 78 Steel........................................... 90 Iron castings............................ 73 Steel castings........................... 110 Electrical apparatus.............. 115 Motor vehicles........................ 35 Automobile parts and bodies 88 Locomotives and cars........... 63 Slaughtering, meat packing. Sugar refining.......................... Canning and preserving. . . . Cigars........................................ Paper and wood pulp.......... Printing and publishing........ Shoes................................... Leather, goat and kid........... Explosives................................ Paints and varnishes............. Petroleum products............... Coke, by-product................... COAL MINING........................ Anthracite................................. Bituminous............................... CRUDE OIL.............................. ELECTRIC POWER.. Sales, total................................ Sales to industries.................. BUILDING CONTRACTS TOTAL AWARDS!................. Residential-!-............................. Nonresidentialt...................... Public works and utilities-!-.. — _ — + — + — — + 5 6 15 0 7 1 2S J 5 7 2 7 ] Year ago + + + + + + 22 26 52 9 43 16 67 0 31 9 18 3 18 108 105 176p 122 89 119 122p 60p 66 86 194p 105p 73 79 23 295 429 419 283 114 104 34 95 172 172 129 92 82 82 122 99 112 108 58 69 69 211 88 86 194r 198 114 158 68 r 38 76 r 30 2r 103r 296 323 423 446 412 435 290 326 2 - 13 K - 30 9 - 4 1 - 50 4 - 58 0 - 22 8 - 26 — + 12 - 33 38 - 75 + 5 + 9 2 + 23 + 5 + 21 2 + 36 + 2 + 26 1 + 9 9 + 85 — 13 - 7 _ + 2 - 17 3* — 4* 5 + 4 _ + 213 + 10 + 2 + 2 5 + 33 + 9 + 8 2 + 20 + 9 + 13 + 4 + 13 4 - 69 2 0 _ 0 - 2 — 8 - 34 + 7 + 91 + 4 +163 +1010 - 77 0 - 8 + 1 - 4 + 2 - 4 3 - 13 208 223 160 223 138 74 162 4 128 56 85 425 + 50 +179 + 37 ** + 25 +187 + 163 - 48 Silk manufactures.................. Woolen and worsteds............ Cotton products...................... Carpets and rugs.................... Hosiery...................................... Underwear.............................. Cement...................................... Brick........................................ Lumber and products........... 79 r 90 100 127 81 76 110 221 120r 276 35 46 96 120 57 95 91 87 84 79p 81 64 51 48 42 55 74p 76 76 75 61 142 143 130 54p 60 29 45 52 48 29 29 35 Not adjusted Per cent ch ange May 1946 1946 from from — — — — — * Unadjusted for seasonal variation. t 3-month moving daily average centered at 3rd month. ** Increase of 1000% or more from the low level of a year ago. Employment May Apr. May 1946 1946 1945 mos. 1945 + + + + + + 25 27 49 6 47 8 59 1 28 21 18 3 21 - 18 - 39 + 3 - 60 - 57 - 33 - 30 - 49 — 64 + 2 + 17 + 15 + 26 + 12 + 2 +124 + 2 - 19 — 4* + 15 - 29 + 2 + 30 + 8 + 23 + 1 - 11 - 68 0 + i - 30 + 14 + 22 - 27 - 6 - 5 - 6 - 16 97p 102 97p 103 97 72p 150p 115p 118 42 135 82p 115 103 71 208 113 116 43 137 83 119 81 94 76 114 106 45 93 62 89 105 84 113 104r 44 104 61 88 74p 50 72p 76 143 61p 47 27 117 108 129 143p 118 89 120 lllp 86 74 50 72 75 140 59 54 27 110 44 145 117 93 124r 112 56 67 70 91 92r 193p 194 r 11 Op 119 73 68 r 79 76 r 21 2r 307 305 399 415 402 424 288 293 +129 199 133 ** 236 151 +101 168 131 156 - 46 78 p—Preliminary, r—Revised. Allentown........... Altoona............... Harrisburg.......... Johnstown........ .. Lancaster............ Philadelphia... . Reading............... Scranton.............. Trenton............... Wilkes-Barre___ Williamsport... . Wilmington........ York..................... Factory employment Factory payrolls Apr. 1946 May 1945 Apr. 1946 May 1945 +1 - 6 0 0 - 2 - 2 + 5 + 1 -18 -10 - 8 -17 - 8 + 2 - 7 -32 0 - 3 + 6 - 2 -30 - 5 -18 -29 - 7 -25 + 3 -12 -24 - 9 -34 - 3 + + - 4 1 7 3 - 3 + + - I 1 6 1 +n -10 -17 + 2 -27 -37 -14 Building permits value Apr. May 1946 1945 + 32 + 9 + 20 +131 +175 - 66 - 21 - 65 — 9 + 35 - 39 - 23 - 13 ** - 35 +837 +439 +354 +415 + 56 - 14 +257 + 3 +104 +298 ** * Area not restricted to the corporate limits of cities given here. ** Increase of 1000% or more from the low level of a year ago. Retail sales 168 62 445 112 90 37 166 r 80 97 93 134 79 229 254 58 126 93 si 60 41 54 61 131 33 51 33 121 105 117 131 89 82 100 98 63 214 91 198 165 37 30 92 r 335 415 417 332 122 155 31 64 92 145 111 129 117 127 105 102 0 0 +150 + 5 + 2 - 1 + 1 - 6 - 1 + 4 0 - 1 - 2 - 9 -57 -41 -21 -13 -16 - 7 -14 -23 - 6 h 5 281 391 82 140 300 266 181 205 186 253 231 241 - 9 -17 -75 -27 -21 - 4 - -24 -29 r21 r39 -28 -32 0 - 2 +168 + 4 - 5 - 2 + + + + 2 i 4 2 3 Manufacturing Employment* Payrolls* Per cent Per cent May changefrom May changefrom 1946 index Apr. May index Apr. May 1946 1945 1946 1945 Indexes: 1923-5=100 TOTAL................................... Iron, steel and products... Nonferrous metal prods.... Transportation equip......... Textiles and clothing......... Textiles............................... Clothing.............................. Food products..................... Stone, clay and glass.......... Lumber products. 100 0 99 +1 189 +1 91 - 6 82 +1 77 +1 101 +1 119 0 96 - 2 51 - 1 112 + i 85 - 1 121 0 119 + i - 9 -17 -14 -37 + 9 +11 + 4 - 1 +20 + 1 - 2 +21 +22 +26 160 - 2 189 - 4 418 +1 148 - 6 148 + 3 140 + 3 187 + 3 196 0 156 - 4 84 - 2 202 0 148 +1 205 - 1 192 - 1 +22 - 1 - 4 +26 +32 +36 53 141 113 Leather and products. Paper and printing......... . Printing.......................... Others: Cigars and tobacco... Rubber tires, goods.. Musical instruments. +n - 2 +32 85 331 200 +16 + 18 +77 0 + 2 - 2 + 3 - 2 +1 -17 -28 -10 -42 +26 +28 + 19 * Figures from 2763 plants. Hours and Wages Debits May 1945 Apr. 1946 May 1945 - 4 - 1 - 7 - 5 +1 - 4 - 4 - 9 + 1 - 8 +35 +44 +32 -i-30 +41 +34 +36 +51 +52 +38 + 6 - 1 + 4 0 - 5 +14 +22 +16 +12 - 1 +55 +32 +10 + 5 + 6 — 2 -24 - 2 Per cent Per cent May chang e from May change from 1946 1946 index Apr. May index Apr. May 1946 1945 1946 1945 GENERAL INDEX............. Manufacturing...................... Bituminous coal mining. ... Building and construction.. Quar. and nonmet. mining.. Crude petroleum prod......... Public utilities....................... Retail trade............................ Wholesale trade..................... Hotels...................................... Laundries................................ Dyeing and cleaning............ Factory workers Averages May 1946 and per cent change from year ago - 6 + 3 Payrolls 71 4 59 298 Apr. 1946 0 Indexes: 1932 =100 125 132 Local Business Conditions* Percentage change— May 1946 from month and year ago Industry, Trade and Service h 6 (- 5 [-14 b22 +13 — .1 7 0 TOTAL............................ Iron, steel and prods.. Nonfer. metal prods... Transportation equip.. Textiles and clothing.. Textiles......................... Clothing....................... Food products.............. Stone, clay and glass.. Lumber products......... Chemicals and prods.. Leather and prods....... Paper and printing.... Printing........................ Others: Cigars and tobacco... Rubber tires, goods... Musical instruments. Wee dy work ing tim e* Hou rly earni ugs* Weei dy eamir gst Average Ch’ge Aver Ch’ge Aver Ch’ge hours age age 38.8 37.2 40.2 40.1 39.7 40.6 37.2 41.5 38.7 41.1 40.4 40.5 41.9 40.2 -12 $1,115 + 2 $43.22 -19 1.205 + 5 44.90 -11 1.101 + 8 44.27 1.269 - 3 50.83 - 9 + 2 ' .913 -12 36.21 + 1 .930 -13 37.81 + 2 .861 -10 32.51 - 4 .915 -10 38.35 - 7 1.044 - 9 40.23 - 5 .844 - 6 34.69 -13 1.207 -13 48.66 - 5 .857 - - 9 34.88 - 6 1.084 +15 45.72 - 5 1.266 +14 40.80 38.4 43.0 45.4 - 9 - 1 +17 * Figures from 2620 plants. .760 +14 1.216 + 16 1.015 +15 29.20 52.24 46.06 -10 -15 - 4 -12 +14 +14 +14 + 5 +1 +1 - 2 + 4 + 8 -13 + 5 +15 +34 f Figures from 2763 plants. Page T> Distribution and Prices Wholesale trade Unadjusted for seasonal variation May 1946 from Per cent ch ange 1946 from Month Year ago ago mos. 1945 +1 + 6 - 4 + 2 + 8 + 6 0 +10 + 6 +33 +68 +15 +56 +90 +24 +69 +97 +12 0 + 6 + 6 -10 - 2 +42 0 +30 +67 +50 +13 +13 +271 +33 Drugs....................................... Dry goods............................... Groceries................................. Hardware................................ Jewelry.................................... Paper........................................ I nventories Paper....................................... +14 +32 Basic commodities (Aug. 1929=100).... Wholesale (1926=100)................ Farm............................. Food.............................. Other............................ Living costs (1935-1939=100) United States............. Philadelphia............... Food........................... Clothing..................... Fuels........................... Housefurnishings.. . Other.......................... 1946 from 5 mos. 1945 Month Year ago ago 223 204 238 206 226 228 211 262 252 248 164 r 154 180 138 147 179 177 235 61 173 172 209 59 157 152 197 69 - 34 - 19 - 24 - 18 0 + 4 - 42 - 12 - 66 - 62 - 83 - 49 - 16 - 8 - 18 - 5 + 13 0 97 105 92 77 97 36 91 110 121 98 125 101 34 61 69 95 100 130 146 139 92 133 288 209 109 135 107 + 62 217 255 134 +150* + 67* + 70* 7 +735* +780* 17 - ii - 6 + 9 201 3 1 221 4 2 191 232 220 250 222 182 224r 207 226 263 203 171r 165r 188 148 119 + 4 + 6 + 10 - 16 - 10 + 7* + + + + + + 36 33 32 49 54 67* 177 179 244 55 +23 +36 +82 + 9 170 170 210 53 155 I53r 205 63 + 4 + 5 + 16 + 5 + 3* + + + + 14 17 20 12 20* 96 102 92 87 77 42 95 119 133 104 126 101 43 117 85 113 107 142 144 135 92 150 227 246 113 145 117 - 8 - 19 - 9 +103 - 35 - 51 - 16 + ii - 6 MISCELLANEOUS Life insurance sales............................................ Business liquidations 220 255 135r - 14 Check payments................................................. 201 Department stores—District........................ Inventories Per cent change from May 1946 Month Year Aug. 1939 ago ago 192 +1 + 4 +1 + 2 + 1 + 1 + + + + 5 6 4 5 + 48 +125 + 66 + 30 132 0 131 + 1 141 + 1 153 + 1 115 + 0 153 + 0 + 122 0 Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 3 3 2 5 5 6 1 + + + + + + + FREIGHT-CAR LOADINGS Merchandise and miscellaneous................... Merchandise—l.c.l............................................ + 92 111 138 112 104 33 33 52 54 19 52 21 May Apr. May 1946 1946 1945 RETAIL TRADE Source: U. S. Department of Commerce. Prices May 1946 from May Apr. May 1946 1946 1945 Indexes: 1935-1939=100 +23 Sales Total of all 1 ues..................... Not adjusted Adjusted for seasonal variation Per cent change Forest products................................................. Grain and products......................................... Livestock............................................................ * Computed from unadjusted data. i9i 226 p—Preliminary. + + + + + 25 23 31 32 41 + 66 r—Revised. BANKING STATISTICS MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND RELATED FACTORS June, 19, 1946 Assets Commercial loans................... $ 282 Loans to brokers, etc............ 43 61 Other loans to carry secur... Loans on real estate.............. 44 1 159 Other loans.............................. Four weeks One year +$ + + 7 1 1 3 +$ 76 - 10 + 3 + 11 + 5 + Total............................................................................................. Uses of funds: Total loans............................. * 590 +$ 15 +$113 Member bank reserve deposits............................................... “Other deposits” at Reserve Bank....................................... Other Federal Reserve accounts............................................ Government securities.......... $1765 -$ 75 -$335 Total............................................................................................. Other securities....................... 190 - 2 + 33 -$ 77 -$318 Total loans & investments. $2545 Reserve with F.R. Bank.. . . 435 32 Cash in vault........................... Balances with other banks.. 89 43 -$ 62 -$205 + 18 - 13 2 1 + + 4 + 4 6 Liabilities Demand deposits, adjusted.. $1852 241 U. S. Government deposits. . 386 Interbank deposi ts................. 377 1 Borrowings............................... Other liabilities....................... 26 261 Capital accounts..................... +$ 77 +$ 56 + 33 - 139 - 301 + 16 - 27 1 — 4 + + 2 + 10 + 1 + 16 Page 76 June 12 June 19 - 2 +52 -42 +35 -20 -46 +61 - 9 - 20 +138 - 72 +17 + 8 +15 + 6 + 46 +12 + 5 - 3 + 9 + 2 + 5 +11 - 2 + 1 - 6 +12 + 8 + 37 +”i +17 + 8 +15 + 6 + 46 17 Total investments................ $1955 Changes in four weeks June 5 May 29 Sources of funds: _ _ Reserve Bank credit extended in district............................ Commercial transfers (chiefly interdistrict)...................... Treasury operations................................................................... X Reporting member banks (Millions $) Third Federal Reserve District (Millions of dollars) l +10l Changes in weeks ended— Changes in— Changes in— Member bank reserves (Daily averages; dollar figures in millions) Phila. banks 1945: June 1-15.. 1946: May 1-15. . May 16-31.. June 1-15.. Country banks 1945: June 1-15.. 1946: May 1-15. . May 16-31. . June 1-15.. Re Held quired Ex cess Ratio of excess to re quired $465 412 409 421 $450 400 399 409 $15 12 10 12 3% 3 2 3 $347 372 369 376 $269 313 315 319 $78 59 54 57 29% 19 17 18 Federal Reserve Bank of Phila. (Dollar figures in millions) Disc, and advances.. $ U. S. securities.......... June 19, 1946 12 1 1569 Total......................... $1582 Fed. Res. notes......... 1619 Member bk. deposits 804 U. S. general account 19 Foreign deposits.. . . 43 3 Gold certificate res.. 906 36.4% Reserve ratio............ Four weeks +$ 5 - 25 One year +$ 9 1 + 191 +$199 + 111 + 9 - 16 - 64 8 + 33 - 152 6.7% + 1.1% - —$20 + 12 + 37 - 23 - 9
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