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z7 THE BUSINESS REVIE RESERVE DISTRICT JANUARY x, 1939 THIRD FEDERAL PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA Business and Banking Conditions in the United States The sharp rise in industrial produc tion, which began early last summer, continued in November. Preliminary reports for the first three weeks of De cember indicate some slowing down in the advance. Employment also in creased in November and payrolls showed little change, although a decline is usual at this season. Distribution of commodities to consumers increased considerably. Production. The Board's seasonally adjusted index of industrial produc tion in November rose to 103 per cent of the 1923-1925 average from 96 per cent in October. Output of steel con tinued to increase, contrary to the sea sonal trend, and there was a further sharp rise in automobile production. In the first three weeks of December activity at steel mills declined some what more than seasonally, while out put of automobiles continued at the high level reached at the end of No vember. Lumber production in No vember decreased by more than the usual seasonal amount. In the non durable goods industries, shoe produc tion declined seasonally, while output of textiles showed a considerable expansion, with increased activity at cotton, wool, and silk mills. At mines, bituminous coal output increased fur ther and production of anthracite showed less than the usual seasonal decline. Output of petroleum showed little change. Value of construction contracts awarded in November showed a de cline from the high level reached in October, according to F. W. Dodge figures for 37 Eastern States. Private and public projects both declined, fol lowing increases in October. The de cline in contracts for private residential building was less than seasonal. Employment. Employment increased somewhat further and payrolls showed little change between the middle of Oc tober and the middle of November, although declines are usual at this time of year. In manufacturing the number employed continued to rise, reflecting principally a further sharp increase at automobile factories and substantial increases in the machinery, steel, and textile industries. Employment de- dined seasonally at establishments pro ducing clothing and shoes; in most other industries employment increased somewhat. In lines other than manu facturing, employment showed some increase, when allowance is made for usual seasonal changes. Distribution. Distribution of com modities to consumers showed a con siderable increase in November. De partment store sales and mail order sales, which had been retarded in Oc tober by unseasonably warm weather, rose sharply, and sales at variety stores also increased in November. Sales of MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND RELATED ITEMS Wednesday figures, January 3, 1934 to Decem ber 21, 1938. CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION MILLIONS or DOLLARS PER CERT PER 140 110 -A, pys 'v V\ \ TO /_ 100 90 1} TAL ALL'’'ll 0 THER .TO v/vy J V residential' 60 rn 1934 193S 1936 1937 Index of physical volume of production, ad justed for seasonal variation. By months, January 1934 to November 1938. 1929 1938 Index of number employed, adjusted for sea sonal variation. By months, January 1934 to November 1938. (SO 5 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 193S 1936 1937 1936 Three-month moving averages of F. W. Dodge data for value of contracts awarded in .37 Eastern States, adjusted for seasonal varia tion. Latest figures based on data for Septem ber and October and estimate for November. Page One automobiles to consumers expanded sharply following the introduction of new models and in November were larger than a year earlier. Kreight-car loadings, which had increased considerably in previous months, showed a slightly less than seasonal decline in November. Commodity prices. Prices of some industrial materials, such as nonferrous metals, hides, and cotton goods, de creased somewhat from the middle of November to the third week of De cember. Sugar prices also declined, while grains advanced somewhat. Prices of most other agricultural and industrial commodities continued to show little change. Bank credit. In connection with pre holiday trade, there was a sharp in crease in money in circulation and as the result of this increase in the de mand for currency, together with Treasury operations around Decem ber 15, there was a temporary decline in member bank reserves. hollowing declines during Novem ber, total loans and investments of re porting member banks in 101 leading cities increased during the first three weeks of December, largely reflecting operations of the Treasury. Loans to security dealers by New York banks increased sharply, reflecting temporary borrowing for the purpose of carrying government securities exchangeable for new issues on December 15. Ad justed demand deposits rose to a new high level in the first half of December. Business and Banking Conditions in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Industrial production in the Phila delphia Federal Reserve District during November showed marked im provement which continued into De cember. The adjusted index of pro ductive activity rose about 4 per cent from October to November, reaching the highest level of the year. Produc tion of manufactured goods and crude oil showed unusual gains, while the output of anthracite declined less than was to be expected. Production of bi tuminous coal and electric power in creased somewhat more than usual. Early reports indicate that production was well sustained in December, de spite the usual slackening in buying as inventory listing approached. Compared with a year ago, total in dustrial production was only 5 per cent smaller as against a difference of 15 per cent in October and 30 per cent at the low point in June. The recovery since the middle of the year has been in sharp contrast to a drastic decline that was in progress in the same period of 1937. The value of building contracts awarded in this district in November declined somewhat, though there has been a marked expansion in activity since early summer. Total construc tion was below* the 1937 level, and for the eleven months continued in smaller volume than in the previous year. The number of workers employed and the amount of wage disbursements in twelve branches of trade and indus try continued at about the same level in November as in the previous month but were again substantially below a year ago. The sharpest gain in payrolls was reported by the bituminous coal mining industry, while the building and construction and anthracite indus tries registered substantial declines. There were small gains in employment and payrolls at manufacturing estab lishments in November, and prelimi nary reports indicate further substan tial increases in December. INDUSTRIAL AND TRADE ACTIVITY Under the impetus of Christmas buying, the dollar volume of retail trade sales in the middle of December exceeded that of last year for the first time in many months. Sales also in creased from October to November, but the gains fell somewhat short of seasonal expectations. Sales by de partment stores alone registered im provement. The decline from a year ago narrowed considerably in each of the last three months. Inventories at retail stores on a seasonally adjusted basis declined in November and were materially smaller than a year ago. Sales at wholesale increased in most lines from October to November, and the index reached the highest level of the year. The margin of decline from a year ago has narrowed consistently throughout the past five months. Stocks of goods at wholesale estab lishments remained unchanged in the month and were substantially smaller than at the end of November 1937. Prices of staple commodities have INCOME PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PERCENT PERCENT PRODUCTION — SALES OF _ _ _ _ FARM PRODUCTS RETAIL TRADE SALES (seasonally adjusted) !\ INDUSTRIAL PAYROLLS PENNA_ _ _ _ _ _ _ VALUE OF I BUILDING CONTRACTS ---------(3 months moving *vg.) ADJUSTED FOB SEASONAL VARIATION 1932 1933 1934 Page Two 1935 1936 1937 1938 1932 1933 1934 1935 1937 1938 declined since the third week of No Business Indicators vember. The average quotation on Philadelphia Federal Reserve District agricultural products has moved down Index numbers: percentages of the 1923-1925 average as 100 gradually and is now at the lowest level in several months, despite a sharp Adjusted for seasonal variation Not adjusted indexes allow for the usual increase in the price of corn and a re Adjusted seasonal change in activity. Per cent change cent upward tendency in wheat. The Unadjusted indexes reflect merely the 1938 Nov. 1938 Oct. Nov. average of the industrial group moved actual change which may or may not Nov. Sept. 1938 from Nov. Sept. Oct. Nov. from 1937 1938 1938 1938 1938 1937 1938 be typical. 11 up until near the end of November Month Year mos. 1937 but subsequently declined, owing ago ago chiefly to lower prices of hides. The 75p 80r 74r 76 76p 73 5 -24 79 r 72 r Industrial production........ + 4 76 r 73 73 r 74p 73 p + 3 - 3 -26 75 r 71 r 71 price index of 813 commodities com Manufacturing—total............... -39 79 r 57 r 61 r 63p + 3 - 20 Durable goods.......................... piled by the Bureau of Labor Statis 81p + 1 + 9 -17 84 81 75 Consumers’ goods.................... 81 51 57 61 -48 81 52 55 62 +12 - 24 Metal products...................... tics has shown a tendency to decline 62 77 76 77p -27 76 74 74p + 1 + 25 59 Textile products..................... -22 76r 57 r 62 r 60 21 60r 63 80 r 65 r 3 since the middle of September and in Transportation equipment. 77 85 79 77p - 3 82 76 77p + 1 - 1 77 Food products........................ the week ended December 17 was 76.7, 116 117 - 6 113 122 100 + 4 101 98 95 Tobacco and products......... 1 38 37 40 36 -31 38 34 38 r 36 - 4 - 4 Building materials................ the lowest so far this year. 110 126 113 117p 6 117p 111 111 + 5 -16 125 Chemicals and products... . 121 r 113 108p 92 -17 96 109 105 114p + 8 + 18 Leather and products......... Manufacturing. The demand for 86 84 84 90 83 7 9 83 90 87 Paper and printing............... 0 70 r| 51 63 60p 50 58p + -16 + 15 - 13 66 r 51 goods manufactured in this district Coal mining.............................. 70 r 50 63 59p -14 67 r 49 57 p 15 50 +16 Anthracite............................. 68 slackened somewhat after the middle 60 64 70 -32 + 7 + 3 61 59 60 63 Bituminous........................... 520 419 394 419 Crude oil.................................... + 6 - 19 -10 504 r 419 394 406 of November in accordance with the Electric power 5 - 3 242 242 247 253 233 247 240 244 general tendency to reduce stocks for Output................................... + 2 + + 4 - 3 238 240 239 247 231 242 239 240 Sales, total!.......................... + 0 the year-end inventory period. Both - 6 164 161 172 162 Sales to industries!............. - 1 -11 168 171 167 166 inquiries and sales were smaller than and wages Pa. 73r 74 r 75 in the preceding four-week period, Employment + 1* - 13* -20* 86 Factory—wage earners.................. 69 r 73r 74 83 + 2* - 11* -31 Payrolls............................................... particularly at plants producing textile -38* 75 59 63 r 64 + 2* - 15* Man-hours (1927-28 = 100)........... General (1932 = 100) products and building materials. Simi 102 104 104 + 0* - 14* -17* 121 Employment................................. -26* 165 136 145r 145 larly, the volume of unfilled orders on + 0* - 12* Payrolls.......................................... hand appears to have declined, indi Building and real estate 49 56 62 59 cating that operations are being sus 59 50 55 62 +12 + 4 Contracts awarded!—total........... 38 40 39 40 + 5 37 43 39 39 - 2 Residential!................................... tained by working off backlogs in 60 69 44 80 75 13 45 62 65 Nonresidentialf............................ + 6 + 44 88 96 105 73 65 96 99 94 - 5 Public works and utilities!. . . . anticipation of spring business. 17 19 15 22 17 28 23 18 19 Permits for building—17 cities. . . 8 43 46 43 61 + 4 - 25 Producers’ inventories of both raw 62 50 45 47 Real estate deeds—Philadelphia! 367 377 164 367 328 325 328 328 Writs for Sheriff sales—Phila. . . . +0 - 0 and finished goods also have declined in the past few weeks, especially at Distribution 88p 92 76 77 rM 80 -12 74p - 2 Retail trade —sales............... textile mills, and currently are well be 89 r| 75 82p 71p - 4 - 8 77 r 72 stocks............ 89 87 101 - 12* -16* + 6* Wholesale trade—sales............... low the levels of a year ago. Prices 66 62 80 + 0* - 18* stocks............ 96 101 65 -22 91 + 5 - 5 86 96 81 are reported to have declined in both Life insurance sales...................... 96 40 +89* - 5* -51* 101 New passenger auto, registrations . the month and the year, and again the 119p — 6* 114 124r 4* Hotels—Occupancy.. . (1934 = 100) _ 4* - 7* - 5* 147 r 108 137p + 5* Income, total (1934=100) tendency appears to be most pro 59 60 -30 61 + 3 - 3 54 Freight-car loadings—total.......... 59 61 61 -29 + 3 - 2 nounced in the textile industry. Merchandise and miscellaneous 64 68 59 -24 + 3 - 7 Coal.................................................. Factory employment in this district increased for the fifth consecutive Business liquidations + 7 +140* +76* 41 r 103 92 99 Number............................. month in November, gaining 1 per +37* +121* -36* 14r 23 23 31 Amount of liabilities.. .. cent over the October level. The vol of accounts ume of wage payments also has been Payment -11 - 3 - 0 Check payments.................... 86 Rate of collections (actual) increasing for several months and in 33 + 4 - 2 Retail trade........................ November advanced 2 per cent fur States ther, contrary to the usual seasonal Prices—United 77 Wholesale (1926 = 100). - 0* - 7* _ q* 68 + 1* - 10* -22* Farm products............... tendency. Despite recent continuous 74 + 1* 11 * -14* Foods............................... 81 - 1* gains, employment and payrolls re 4* - 4* Other commodities.... 78 - 7* Retail food.......................... — o* - 7* spectively were still 12 and 10 per cent 78 - 1* 7* - 8* Philadelphia................... 72 - 8* 1 * 6 * Scranton.......................... below November 1937, when manu facturing activity was declining % change from Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. Nov. sharply. (In millions of dollars) Month Year 1938 1938 1938 1938 1937 Preliminary reports for December ago ago indicate additional marked increases Banking and credit in employment, payrolls, and working Federal Reserve Bank -50 $ 1.3 +18 $ 1.0 $ 1.1 $ 1.2 $ 2.6 time, whereas declines are usual from + 3 0 226 235 226 234 219 + 5 378 2 384 353 358 361 November to December. If the re + 1 72.8 + 0 72.6 70.1 69.9 72.3 maining returns show a similar trend, Reporting member banks - 9 $ 423 + 1 $ 418 $ 416 $ 418 $ 464 the December index of factory pay + 8 731 + 1 723 720 714 677 - 0 + 5 1425 1377 1426 1372 1353 rolls will exceed that of a year ago. -30 11.2 + 3 10.9 9.9 9.1 Bankers’ acceptances outstanding. 16.1 In Pennsylvania, employment ad p—Preliminary. r—Revised. * Computed from data unadjusted for seasonal variation. vanced 1 per cent and wage disburse (a) Less cash items in process of collection. ! 3-month moving daily average centered at 3rd month. % Not included in production index. ments increased 2 per cent in NovemPage Three METAL PRODUCTS-EMPLOYE HOURS WORKED OUTPUT OF KNIT GOODS PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PERCENT PERCENT UNDERWEAR STEEL WORKS AND ROLLING MILLS FOUNDRIES AND MACHINE SHOPS 1932 1934 1935 1936 ber, continuing the steady improvement which has been in progress since the middle of the summer. More workers were employed in the latest month than at any time since last February, and the amount paid in wages was the largest since December 1937. The most substantial gains were reported by plants manufacturing iron and steel, and stone, clay, and glass products, although considerable improvement again occurred at those producing transportation equipment. These three groups of industries since early fall have been among the leaders in the expansion of industrial activity, owing for the most part to the increase in automobile production and to the con tinued heavy volume of construction. The textile and clothing group con tinued to lag, largely because of a sharp drop in the production of men’s clothing. Working time increased further in November, the gain amounting to about 2 per cent as compared with 6 per cent in the previous month. Av erage weekly earnings also advanced slightly for the fourth consecutive month to $23.65. In October the av erage weekly income of wage earners was $23.49, and in June, when manu facturing activity was at the low point, the weekly wage was $21.74. Hourly earnings increased somewhat further in November. In Delaware factories, employment showed no change from October, and payrolls increased 1 per cent. Sub stantial gains were reported at estab lishments producing transportation equipment, but there were sharp de clines at those turning out foods, ci gars, furniture, and chemical products. In this region, textile mills reported Page Four 1937 1938 1934 increases in both the number of work ers and the amount of wage disburse ments, while plants manufacturing metal products reported declines. At factories in Southern New Jersey em ployment advanced 3 per cent and pay rolls nearly 2 per cent, following declines in the previous month. The output of manufactured goods in this district increased 3 per cent from October to November on a sea sonally adjusted basis and was only 3 per cent below the level of last year. This decline from 1937 approximated 30 per cent throughout the first five months of this year and reached 33 per cent at the year’s low last June. Since that time the decline has nar rowed consistently. This year the rate of manufacturing activity has expanded in four of the past five months, while in 1937 the adjusted index declined steadily from April to the end of the year. Durable goods again led the expan sion in November, the gain amounting to 3 per cent, after allowance for sea sonal variation, compared with an advance of but 1 per cent in the pro duction of consumers’ goods. The manufacture of metal products in creased 12 per cent, and the output of chemical and leather products respec tively was 5 and 8 per cent above sea sonal levels. All other lines showed only slight gains or losses. In the textile group, which advanced 1 per cent in the aggregate, the greatest improvements were 21 per cent in the weaving of carpets and rugs and 15 per cent in woolens and worsteds. Total sales of electricity increased seasonally 3 per cent from October to November and were 4 per cent above a year ago. 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 Coal and other fuels. Output of an thracite decreased much less than usual in November and continued to exceed seasonal expectations during the first half of December, sales at the mines being stimulated by colder weather. Shipments also declined somewhat in November, following a sharp expan sion in the two preceding months. Both production and shipments were substantially below November 1937 and in the first eleven months were 14 and 13 per cent, respectively, smaller than a year ago. The output of bituminous coal ex panded more than seasonally in No vember and was the largest since October 1937, reflecting the improve ment in industrial conditions which has been in evidence over the past several months. In early December produc tion showed some additional gain. Shipments increased in November for the sixth consecutive month and were the largest reported this year. In the first eleven months, however, produc tion was about one-third and shipments nearly one-quarter less than in the same period of 1937. Output of by-product coke increased sharply in November and for the first time in 1938 exceeded the volume of a year ago. Production of gas and fuel oils has been increasing since August. In November, the crude oil run to stills was the largest for any month since last February and only 2 per cent smaller than a year ago. Building. Awards of building con tracts in this district declined in No vember, following substantial gains in the three preceding months. The con tract total approximated $15,000,000, a decrease of 10 per cent from October and of 9 per cent from a year ago. FREIGHT CAR LOADINGS VALUE OF BUILDING CONTRACTS ALLEGHENY PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT DISTRICT 192 3-25AVG. = IOO PERCENT COAL INDUSTRIAL TOTAL RESIDENTIAL tW MERCHANDI SE AND MI5CEL LANEOUS ADJUSTED FC R SEASONAL 1935 1938 1936 Contracts for nonresidential struc tures declined 16 per cent in Novem ber, despite sharp increases in the construction of factories and educa tional building's. The value of con tracts for public works and utilities also declined. A small increase in residential building was due entirely to a substantial gain in the volume of awards for apartments and hotels. Contracts let for family houses de creased, following the sharp rise in October. Building contracts Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Per cent change Novem ber 1938 1938 From from (000’s month 11 omitted) ago mos. 1937 Residential........................... $ 5,019 Apts, and hotels............. 940 Family houses................. 4,079 6,265 Nonresidential..................... Commercial...................... 523 Factories........................... 1,567 Educational..................... 2,722 All other........................... 1,453 +327 - 13 - 16 - 65 + 70 + 63 - 58 -14 -11 -15 - 9 -24 -63 +26 +16 Total buildings........... $11,284 Public works and utilities. 3,668 - 9 - 13 -11 - 1 Grand total.................. $14,952 - 10 - 9 Source: F. W. Dodge Corporation. Aggregate contracts of $146,000,000 in the first eleven months of 1938 were 9 per cent less than last year. Resi dential contracts amounting to $44, 500,000 were 14 per cent below 1937. Since July, however, there has been a pronounced improvement in the resi dential field, contracts having averaged nearly $5,000,000 a month, as against slightly over $3,000,000 in the first half of 1938 and about $4,500,000 a year ago. Wholesale prices of building mate rials have shown only small fluctua tions over the past several weeks, increases in quotations for yellow pine 1939 1933 1934 timbers and shingles having been vir tually offset by slightly lower prices for common brick. Since early No vember the price index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics has continued at approximately 89 per cent of the 1926 average, compared with 90 in October and 94 a year ago. Distribution, trade and service. Vol ume of holiday trade at retail has in creased sharply since early November, and in the two weeks preceding Christ mas, sales exceeded the dollar volume of the same period of 1937. Sales by department stores expanded more than usual from October to No vember, owing to substantial gains at Philadelphia establishments. In other reporting lines of retail trade through out the district, dollar sales in Novem ber did not measure up to expectations. As a result, the adjusted index of ag gregate sales was about 2 per cent be low the previous month. Compared with a year ago, total sales decreased 5 per cent, the smallest decline from 1937 reported in any month this year. Business at wholesale increased 6 per cent from October to November, actual gains being reported in all lines except shoes and hardware. Com pared with a year ago, dollar sales in the aggregate showed a decline of 12 per cent, as against 14 per cent in October. Stocks of merchandise in both chan nels of trade showed virtually no change from October to November. In retail lines inventories were 8 per cent smaller than a year ago, and at whole sale establishments they were 18 per cent less. Freight-car loadings in this district declined less than seasonally from Oc tober to November, owing largely to ARIATION 1935 1936 1937 .......... 1938 the fact that shipments of merchandise and miscellaneous commodities and coal were above their customary levels. Total car loadings showed a decrease of only 3 per cent from November 1937 but were nearly one-third smaller in the first eleven months this year than last. Shipments of manufactures originating in the Philadelphia indus trial area declined somewhat more than seasonally in November, but showed some gain early in December. Sales of new passenger automobiles in this district nearly doubled in No vember and were the largest since last April. The decline from a year ago was only 5 per cent in November, having narrowed considerably since the spring. Owing to the unusually small number of cars sold during the spring and summer, aggregate sales in the first eleven months this year were 51 per cent less than in 1937. Despite a decrease in room occu pancy from October to November, non resort commercial hotels reported an increase in total revenue. Hotel business Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Nov.: per cent 1938 change from from 11 Month Year mos. 1937 ago ago Room occupancy.................... Per cent of capacity used: Nov. 1938........... 50.6 Oct. 1938................ 52.8 Nov. 1937 ................ 53.0 Revenue from: Guest rooms......................... Food....................................... Other sources...................... - 0 - 4 +0 -4 -6 - 3 + 7 +18 -6 -7 -8 -6 -4 Total revenue.................. + 5 -7 —5 In the past year the reporting banks have experienced a decline in the volume of loans, but they have gained deposits and have put a portion of their surplus funds to Banking conditions. Page Five use through the purchase of a substan tial amount of securities. The reserves of all member banks averaged $370,000,000 in the first half of December, as against $350,000,000 a year earlier. Owing to this increase and to the reduction in requirements in the spring, excess reserves have risen from $50,000,000 to $103,000, 000. Since this reduction was made in April, the proportion of excess to required reserves at country banks in this district has averaged close to 50 per cent. While there has been some decline at Philadelphia banks in the past six months, the ratio in the latest period was 33 per cent, substantially above that reported a year ago. Member bank reserves (Dollar figures in millions) Held Re Ex quired cess Reserve city banks 1938—Nov. 1-15 $238.7 $171.3 $67.4 Nov. 16-30 234.6 172.1 62.5 Dec. 1-15 227.9 171.4 56.5 1937—Dec. Ratio of excess to re quired 39% 36 ” 33 ” 1-15 207.4 184.6 22.8 12 ” Country banks 1938—Nov. 1-15 142.4 Nov. 16-30 140.9 Dec. 1-15 141.8 94.8 94.6 94.7 47.6 46.3 47.1 50 ” 49 ” 50 ” 115.0 27.3 24 ” 1937—Dec. 1-15 142.3 In the third week of December there was a sharp decline in member bank reserves, owing to heavy payments to the Treasury for income taxes and new securities, with the result that on De cember 21 they were $17,000,000 smaller than they were four weeks earlier. In this period $33,000,000 of funds was withdrawn from the market through Treasury operations. An other major factor in reducing the level of reserves was a seasonal in crease of $14,600,000 in the demand for currency, which slightly exceeded that reported a year earlier. Among the several factors tending to sustain the level was a favorable balance of $27,000,000 in commercial and financial transactions with other districts. Despite the usual need for credit at this season, there was very little in crease in borrowing from this bank. On December 21 discounts were only $1,400,000, representing accommoda tion extended to 36 banks, as against $3,000,000 to 54 banks a year ago. Over $45,000,000 of new Treasury securities was allotted to this district on December 15, in.addition to those received in exchange for earlier issues. Chiefly as a result of these allotments, holdings of United States Government securities by reporting member banks Page Six Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (Dollar figures in millions) Dec. 21, 1938 $ Industrial advances. . . 1.4 3.1 222.8 $227.3 324.6 Member bank deposits. 353.0 U. S. general account. . 62.7 Foreign bank deposits. 19.1 7.1 560.9 73.2% Changes in— Four weeks Reporting member banks (000,000’s omitted) One year +$0.1 + 0.0 - 0.1 0 -$1.6 - 0.2 - 0.6 + 5.9 +$0.0 + 8.9 -16.9 +32.1 - 1.6 - 1.6 +19.3 + 0.6% +$3.5 - 1.1 - 4.8 +55.3 + 0.6 + 5.1 +51.7 + 1.6% in the four weeks ended December 21 increased $22,000,000 to the highest point on record. This increase and a rise of $4,000,000 in loans resulted in an expansion of $16,000,000 in total bank credit outstanding. Holdings of guar anteed and of corporate and municipal securities declined. The growth in loans was due to a rise of $6,000,000 in the unclassified group, which includes municipal paper, as well as personal and installment loans. Currently this category shows an increase of $11,000,000 from the low point in the summer and is slightly above a year ago. Commercial loans have fluctuated narrowly in the past few months, following a downward trend which was quite marked in the late spring and summer. An increase in aggregate deposits at the reporting banks in the past four weeks was due to a rise in deposits credited to the Federal Government in payment for securities and to an in crease in adjusted demand deposits. Declines in balances held for other banks apparently reflected the recall of funds to care for seasonal demands, and a decrease in time deposits was the result in part of the paying out of Christmas savings. Gains in all major classifications contributed to an expansion of $99, 000,000 or more than 7 per cent in deposits over the past year, but the most pronounced increases were in government and interbank balances. Dec. 21, 1938 Changes in— Four weeks One year Assets $ 185 22 20 33 58 2 109 -$ 1 - 2 + 1 —$31 + 2 + 1 - 3 - 1 + + $ 429 +S 4 —$31 Government securities........ $ Obligations fully guaranteed 365 93 286 + 22 - 4 - 6 +$62 + 3 + 23 $ 744 +$12 +*88 Total loans & investments $1,173 Reserve with F. R. Bank. . 228 22 Balances with other banks. 166 83 Liabilities Demand deposits, adjusted $ 790 283 U. S. Government deposits. 55 Interbank deposits............... 300 i9 225 +$16 11 + 3 + 2 - 1 +$57 - 1 + 1 + 38 - 4 +$16 - 5 + 17 - 19 +$18 + 12 + 30 + 39 + - - Other loans to carry secur.. Loans on real estate............ 6 2 2 Sources of funds: Reserve bank credit extended in district............... Commercial transfers (chiefly interdistrict) . . Treasury operations........................... Total........................................ Uses of funds: Currency demand..................................... Member bank reserve deposits................ “Other deposits” at reserve bank. . . . Unexpended capital funds.................... Total............................................ 6 2 Additional amounts were made avail able to the banks through the re payment of loans, which declined $31,000,000. The reporting banks have made sub stantial additions to investments since the spring, and on December 21 their security holdings were $88,000,000 larger than on the corresponding date of 1937, nearly three-fourths of the in crease being in governments. Outstanding acceptances of banks in this district continue to run substan tially below the levels of last year, owing principally to the smaller amount of import bills that are being created. The decrease of over 30 per cent in the total to $11,154,000 at the end of No vember also reflected sharp declines in bills covering exports and domestic warehouse credits. Those based on goods stored in or shipped between foreign countries show little change in volume, while bills relating to domestic shipments have increased over $500,000 in the year to $1,821,000, the largest amount reported since the fall of 1932. MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND RELATED EACTORS Philadelphia Federal Reserve District (Millions of dollars) i Changes in weeks ending— Nov. 30 Dec. 7 Dec. 14 Deo. 21 Changes in four weeks +0.3 -5.6 -1.1 - 1.1 + 9.4 + 2.4 + 1.7 +17.9 + 0.3 + 1.2 + 5.9 -34.5 + 2.1 +27.6 -32.9 -6.4 +10.7 +19.9 -27.4 - 3.2 +0.1 -6.1 -0.3 -0.1 + 7.0 + 4.0 - 0.3 0 + 3.4 +15.2 + 1.4 - 0.1 + 4.1 -30.0 - 2.4 + 0.9 +14.6 -16.9 - 1 .6 + 0.7 -6.4 +10.7 +19.9 -27.4 - 3.2 Employment and Payrolls in Pennsylvania COMMERCIAL LOANS REPORTING MILLIONS member banks phila. fed. res. dist (All figures are rounded from original data) Manufacturing Indexes 1938 Employment* Payrolls * (Indexes are percentages of the 1923-25 average Per cent Per cent taken as 100. Total and group indexes are weight Nov. change from Nov. change from 1938 1938 ed proportionately.) index Nov. Oct. index Nov. Oct. 1937 1938 1937 1938 1937 Employehoursf Per cent change from Nov. Oct. 1937 1938 1937 JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT No<e:~ All other loans up lo May l£, 1937 OCT NOV 75 All manufacturing__ Iron, steel and products . 65 Nonferrous metal prods.. 99 Transportation equip.. . . 50 Textiles and clothing.... 93 Textiles........................... 89 Clothing.......................... 109 T ood products................... 105 Stone, clay and glass .... 71 Lumber products.............. 57 Chemicals and products . 81 Leather and products.... 87 Paper and printing........... 95 Printing........................... 89 Others: Cigars and tobacco.... 67 Rubber tires, goods . . . 79 Musical instruments .. 55 DEC CURRENCY DEMAND PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT MILLIONS MILLIONS -13 -22 -17 -25 - 1 - 3 + 3 + o -16 — 5 -14 + 3 - 5 - 6 +i +2 +1 +2 +0 +1 -3 -0 +4 -0 +1 -2 +2 +2 74 70 109 54 83 82 91 106 69 49 87 78 95 90 -11 -19 -18 -16 + 6 + 5 +12 - 1 -11 - 8 -11 +16 - 4 - 6 +2 +5 +u +2 -2 -1 -6 -2 +5 -6 +4 -1 +0 +1 -15 -21 -19 -31 +15 +14 +10 - 4 -13 -10 -14 +12 - 4 - 9 +2 +4 -0 +2 -1 +0 -5 -1 +2 -6 +6 -4 -0 -0 - 4 + i + 2 -1 -3 +4 61 84 57 -10 +15 + 8 -7 -6 +5 -11 + 12 + 5 -7 -7 +6 * Figures from 2298 plants. t Figures from 2067 plants. + 100 - General Index Numbers 1938 Covering twelve branches of trade and industry 1937 1936 - +20 (Indexes are percentages of the 1932 average taken as 100. In dividual indexes are combined proportionately into general in dex number.) General index (weighted).... - 80 JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT. OCT. NOV DEC. Percentage change—November 1938 from November 1937 City areas* Allentown............. Altoona.................. Harrisburg............ Johnstown............. Lancaster.............. Philadelphia......... Reading................. Scranton................ Trenton.................. Wilkes-Barre.... Williamsport........ Wilmington.......... York....................... Manufacturing Employ ment Wage payments Building permits (value) Debits - 7 -13 -16 -34 - 3 -12 - 8 - 1 - 2 - 6 + 3 -13 - 3 - 1 -12 -17 -29 + 2 -12 - 1 + 9 + 4 - 8 + 5 -19 + 2 +247 - 86 - 36 - 52 - 71 - 40 + 32 + 67 - 46 + 16 - 7 - 42 +336 -10 - 4 - 7 -24 - 3 - 0 + 7 - 3 + 8 - 4 - 1 +18 -10 Manufacturing............................. Anthracite mining....................... Bituminous coal mining............. Building and construction......... Quarrying and nonmet. mining. Crude petroleum producing . . . Public utilities.............................. Retail trade................................... Wholesale trade........................... Hotels.............................................. Laundries....................................... Dyeing and cleaning................... Payrolls Employment Nov. 1938 index 104 118 68 102 57 98 136 95 109 113 109 98 102 Per cent change from Oct. Nov. 1937 1938 -14 -13 -16 -17 -37 -16 -16 - 5 -10 - 5 - 6 - 7 - 4 +0 +1 -3 +2 -3 +i +i +i -0 -3 -1 -4 Nov. 1938 index 145 180 62 201 75 174 158 104 124 113 123 123 131 Per cent change from Nov. Oct. 1937 1938 -12 -11 -26 - 4 -38 - 7 -10 - 5 - 9 — 5 - 6 + 0 +10 + 0 + 2 -16 +12 -13 - 1 + 3 + 1 + 1 - 1 - 0 + 2 - 6 trade sales - 7 4 9 7 5 9 2 2 3 5 INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS PENNSYLVANIA PERCENT PAYROLLS - 5 - 3 November 1938 from October 1938 Allentown............. Altoona.................. Harrisburg............ Johnstown............. Lancaster.............. Philadelphia......... Reading................. Scranton................ Trenton.................. Wilkes-Barre.... Williamsport........ Wilmington.......... York....................... + + + + + + + + - 2 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 5 1 0 1 3 + + - 2 4 3 2 - 3 +1 +1 - 5 + 1 - 4 - 1 + 2 - 4 +102 - 69 - 30 - 55 - 77 - 26 + 33 - 7 4- 27 - 9 - 87 - 59 - 16 -12 + 2 -21 - 6 - 8 - 6 - 9 + 0 + e - 3 - 7 + 6 + 2 - 8 - 7 +10 - 6 +1 +u + 8 - 6 + 7 - 0 + 1 EMPLOYMENT 1933 1935 1936 1937 * Area not restricted to the corporate limits of cities given here. Page Seven 3? RETAIL TRADE Index numbers of individual lines of trade and manufactures TOTAL SALES Philadelphia Federal Reserve District r '-'d Index numbers: percentages of the 1923-1925 average as 100 Adjusted for seasonal variation seasonal change in activity. Not adjusted Per cent cha nge Unadjusted indexes reflect merely the actual change which may or may not Nov. Sep. Oct. Nov. be typical. 1937 1938 1938 1938 Retail trade Sales Total of all stores........................... Department................................. Men’s apparel............................. Women’s apparel........................ Shoe............................................... Credit............................................ V STOCKS 77 r 75 r 67 94 75 80 80 68 76 125 84 87 75 65 70 98 79 90 74p 68p 63 90 78p 82p DEPARTMENT STORES Nov. 1938 from 1938 from Nov 11 1937 Month Year mos. ago ago 1937 - 2 + S -10 - 9 - 1 - 9 — _ — _ + + 5 9 6 5 4 3 -12 92 -13 89 -14 77 - 8 113 - 8 73 -12 102r — Sept. Oct. Nov. 1938 1938 1938 SALES 76 86 88p 67 75 82p 63 74 72 107 110 108 86 81 76p 83 110 106p 1 — — STOCKS MENS APPAREL STORES Stocks of goods Credit............................................ 77 r 58 r 105 71 104 72 74 71p 52 52 52p 106 93 92* 66 62 62 99 109 lOlp 11 - 7 - 3 Rate of stock turnover 11 months (actual, not indexes) . 117 101 116 115p 3.44 4* 3.58 Wholesale trade Sales women's + g* 19* 101 -12* 4- 45* - 1* + 1* + 0* — 2* +11* 6* —25* +10* —39* + 4* 5* — 7* -10* 12* —22* 8* —26* + 3* + 3* + 1* — 19* Hardware..................................... Jewelry.......................................... 87 84 89 APPAREL STORES ........... Stocks of goods Slaughtering, meat packing............. Sugar refining...................................... Canning and preserving.................... Cigars..................................................... Paper and wood pulp......................... Printing and publishing.................... Shoes...................................................... Leather, goat and kid........................ Explosives............................................. Paints and varnishes..................... Petroleum products........................... Coke, by-product............................. 18* 7* 9* + — + + 10* 16* 15* 16* 80 62 66 66 51 66 61 103 117 19 72 36 287 r 79 35 40 48 98 101 48 37 32 91 96 51 59 111 63 96 100 84 90 34 49 48 62 59 14 50 14 244 84 55 41 93 100 125 59 31 27 96 98 106 68 115 68 89 176 68 r 74 74 153 82 39 55 52 69 62 16 58 12 254 82 r 52 43 83 103 133 65 34 r 29 88 103 98 59 121 66 S3 156 71 73 77 155 92 38 58 50 77 68 15 63 12 227 79 59 44 102 108 132 54 33 27 91 103 59 56p 116 67 +13* Groceries...................................... Hardware..................................... Output of manufactures Pig iron.................................................. Steel....................................................... Iron castings........................................ Steel castings....................................... Electrical apparatus........................... Motor vehicles..................................... Automobile bodies and parts.......... Locomotives and cars........................ Shipbuilding......................................... Silk manufactures............................... TV oolen and worsteds......................... Cotton products.................................. Carpets and rugs................................ Hosiery.................................................. Underwear............................................ Cement.................................................. Brick...................................................... Lumber and products........................ + 0* - 3* -11* 50 69 59 110 111 22 79 39 287 r 78 33 38 44 86 100 48 37 32 36 39 38 55 61 51 47 49 49 68 73 83 53 57 65 16 17 18 53 61 69 13 14 13 257 264 227 84 80 r 79 51 47 r 55 43 42 42 86 74 90 100 94 95 125 122 130 58 55 51 31 34 r 33 26 28 27 87 98 99 93 79 123 116 90 54 53 45 49p 93 99 98 97 63 68 65 67 95 90 87 87 106 155 145 149 87 65 r 68 80p 90 74 72 76 82 78 72 73 170 151 153 161p 103 86 94 105 18 Computed from data unadjusted for seasonal variation. 2* 3* 2* 4* - 4 +n - 0 +14 +14 + 1 +12 + 2 -14 - 2 +15 - 0 +21 + - 26 12 18 25 42 18 13 67 21 + 1 + 66 + 10 +106 + 10 + 30 + 13 — — — — — _ — — — 6 5 2 4 — + 3* - 6 + -22 + +ii - 2 + 3 - 0 + 3 +18 + 6 + 2 + 5 +12 + + -57 -49 -41 -54 -47 -27 -35 -58 - 4 -21 -34 -41 -49 -19 -13 - 6 11 -53 15 -29 1* — 3* 8 + j 14 - 5 9 - 8 4 - 5 7 -12 9 + 40 7 15 _ 11 — — 5 + 2 - 8 - 4 -34 -20 -18 85 - 9 171 -39 99 p—Preliminary. 88 140 78p 76 76 161p 101 CREDIT STORES q itV- ‘7 \ 11 \j V 'V- ''AVr U^SALES r—Revised. 1934 Page Eight V 1935 1936 1937 1938
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