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THE BUSINESS REVIEW THIRD FEDERAL PHILADELPHIA ijlfi E>x RESERVE DISTRICT JANUARY z, 19x4 By RICHARD L. AUSTIN, Chairman and Federal Reserve Agent FEDERAL RESERVE BANK o f PHILADELPHIA SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN THE UNITED STATES Production of basic commodities and factory employmen decreased in November. Distribution of mer ch a n t se by wholesalers and retailers was somewhat less active, and wholesale prices showed a slight further recession. Production in basic industries decreased about two per cent in November. The decline was due chiefly to reduced production of iron and Production steel and smaller sugar meltings. The Federal Reserve Board’s new index of factory employment which is shown by the accompanying chart also declined, due to lessened activity at iron and steel plants and large seasonal reduc tions at clothing establishments. The volume of em ployment is now two per cent smaller than in the spring but three per cent larger than a year ago. Contract awards for new buildings were smaller in November than in October in all reporting districts except New Y ork but were 20 per cent larger than a year ago. Final estimates by the Department of Agriculture’ show larger yields of corn, oats, tobacco and cotton than in 1922 and smaller yields o f wheat, hay and potatoes. The total value of agricultural production at December INDEX OF PRODUCTION IN BASIC INDUSTRIES C O M B IN A T IO N OF 22 IN D IV ID U A L S E R IE S 1 prices was 12 per cent larger than in 1922. Each of the ten principal crops except wheat showed an increase in value. Railroad freight shipments in November showed about the usual seasonal decline from October but were in heavier volume as compared Trade with previous years. Wholesale trade was 13 per cent less in November than in October, which is more than the usual decrease at this season, but sales continued to be slightly larger than a year ago. Sales of hardware, drugs, and meat were larger than in November, 1922, while sales of shoes were smaller. Retail business was smaller than in October .in most lines. Sales o f mail order houses declined more than sales o f department stores, but were 11 per cent larger than a year ago. The Bureau of Labor Statistics index of wholesale prices d'cebned in November to a point 4 per cent lower tlTah iast spring and about 3 per Prices cent loAer than a year ago. The chief ^eductions occurred in prices cf^ m in al products, fuel, and house-furnishings. Prices o f clothing and crops, on the other hand, inr 2 T he B R usiness BA NK CREDIT BILLIOnS OF DOLLARS FACTORY E M P LO Y M E N T | P Rcent E 1-4-U 600 MEMBER BANKS m LEADING CIT,ES • . Demand Deposits January eview M N H Y A E A E 1919-100 OT L VRG 120 Loans and Disco jots : lOO ------- 80 60 1 Investments.,--— ------------, -------- Time Deposits 40 20 O 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 creased and the latter group averaged higher than in any month since 1920. During the first half o f Decem ber prices o f sheep, beef, sugar, cotton, silk and rubber declined, while quotations on crude oil, wheat and wool were slightly higher. The total volume o f credit extended by member banks in leading cities showed but little change between the middle of November and the Bank credit middle o f December. A seasonal reduction in commercial and agri cultural loans in most districts was accompanied by increased loans on securities, with the result that total loans remained practically constant. During the same period borrowings at the Federal Reserve Banks were also practically unchanged. H old ings o f acceptances increased somewhat, partly in connection with the financing o f cotton exports. Tne increased demand for currency for holiday trade was reflected in both a moderate expansion in Federal R e serve Note circulation and a reduction Hi gold cer tificates held by the Reserve Banks. Rates o f commercial paper sold in the open market continued to show an easier tendency, as indicated by increased sales at 4 Y per cent, particularly in interior \ 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 districts. The December issue of one year 4 % per cent and six months 4 per cent Treasury Certificates, com pared with 4 % per cent on a-six months’ issue sold in September, were largely oversubscribed. This month we present for the first time a chart showing a new index of employment in manufacturing industries, com piled by the Federal Reserve Board’s Division of Research and Statistics. Wide industrial and geographical representation in the composition of the index is obtained by using data collected by a number of Federal and state agencies, covering 33 sepa rate industries which are grouped into ten general classes, as follows: metals; textiles; lumber; vehicles; paper and printing; food; leather; stone, clay and glass; tobacco; and chemicals. The final index in each of the ten group indexes was obtained by combining the 33 individual industry series, weighting them in accordance with their relative importance as determined by the number employed according to the Census of Manufactures of 1919 and 1921. The index is expressed in terms of per centages with the monthly average for 1919 as the base, i.e., ICO per cent. It is so constructed that its movements, although they do not measure the total volume of employment, reflect increases or decreases in this volume. No correction was made for normal seasonal variations because, although these fluctu ations are noticeable in individual industries, they vary as to time ana degree and in the final index largely offset each other. A full description of the data and methods used in compiling this index and of the results obtained was published in the December issue of the Federal Reserve Bulletin. TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE Agriculture .................. Bankers’ acceptances Building ......................... Bricks ............................ Chemicals ...................... Cigars ............................ Coal ............. .................. Coal, anthracite .......... Coal, bituminous ........ Coke ................................ Commercial paper ....... Confectionery ............... Cotton goods ............... Cotton, raw ................. District summary ........ Drugs, wholesale ....... Drygoods, wholesale . Employment and wages . 27 . 6 .. .. 12 11 . 12 . 12 . 26 ,. 16 . 16 . 16 . 16 . 7 ...18 . 17 . 3 . . . 11 10 3 PAGE Financial conditions .............................. Floor coverings ........................................ Foreign exchange ...................................... Gas and electric fixtures ......................... Glass _............................................................ Groceries, wholesale ................................. Hardware, wholesale ................................ Hides and skins ........................................ Hosiery ....................................................... Iron ............................................................. Leather ......................................................... Lumber ........................................................ National summary ................................... O il................................................................... Paint ............................................................ Paper ............................................................ Pottery ........................................................ Printing and publishing ......................... 6 22 8 IS 14 9 10 23 21 15 23 14 1 17 14 25 13 25 PAGE Retail trade . .......- .................................... 8 Savings deposits ........ 7 Securities ................................................... 6 Shoes ............................................................ 24 Shoes, wholesale ..................................... 9 Silk goods .................................................. 21 Silk, raw ..................................................... 20 Silk, thrown .............................................. 21 Steel .......... ;•••.•.......................................... 15 Summary, district ..................................... 3 Summary, national ................................... 1 Synopsis of business conditions ............ 4 Tobacco leaf .............................................. 26 Underwear .................................................. 22 Wholesale trade ........................................ 9 W oolen and worsted goods .................... 20 Woolen and worsted yarns .................... 19 W ool, raw ................................................... 19 SUMMARY OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN THE THIRD FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT In several lines, sales by manufacturers have as usual decreased as the period for taking inventories has ap proached. The same factor has been the cause of a similar decline in wholesale trade, which, however, is larger in most cases than it was a year ago. Retail •trade, as was to he expected, is heavy, and preliminary 1reports indicate that Christmas sales will exceed those o f 1922. Distribution o f goods, as measured by freight car loadings, has decreased, as is customary at this period o f the year. In certain industries conditions are still unsettled, hut optimism has been growing during recent weeks, and considerable confidence exists as regards pros pects for 1924. The pig iron industry recovered some what during late November, and although activity has lessened since then, a goodly volume o f orders was received for delivery both immediately and during the first six months o f 1924. This buying movement tended to lighten stocks, and a further cutting down of production has brought the supply more into line with the demand than it has been in several months. Building operations continue on a large scale for this season o f the year, but the demand for building materials has as usual declined. The value o f building permits issued in this district during November was 3ver $5,000,000 less than the total either in October of his year or in November, 1922. A shrinkage, how^ ver, is customary in November, and is observable throughout the country. Textile products on the whole ipntinue to move rather slowly, partly because o f sea sonal influences. Quotations on raw wool and on cotton strengthened during the month, but silk weak ened, and prices are now about the same as they were )efore the disaster in Japan. Manufacturers o f certain extile goods, including heavy underwear and full-fashoned hosiery, report substantial orders for 1924. Hides and calf skins have been in good request, and leavy leather has been moving better. Conditions in the hoe industry, however, vary; factories making chilh'en’s shoes have sold a considerable part o f their out fit for February and March delivery, but in women’s hoes uncertainty caused by style changes has tended 0 curtail orders. Paper is selling only moderately well, wing, it is said, to the instability of prices. Cigar manufacturers state that business is not quite up to the November level, but it is noteworthy that the higher grades o f cigars are in exceptionally good demand, and Christmas orders have been large. In spite of the varying and somewhat conflicting ten dencies mentioned, the general situation continues dis tinctly favorable. Both manufacturers and merchants are, for the most part, entering the new year with only moderate stocks o f goods. The disposition toward caution in buying continues, although in some indus tries it is apparent that purchases for future delivery are growing. The labor situation, too, is satisfactory. Manufacturing establishments in this district reported a slight decline in employment during the month, ac companied by a decrease in total wage payments, but wage rates were practically unchanged. Mercantile es tablishments increased their number o f employes in preparation for the holiday trade. Commodity prices declined during November for the third consecutive month, the index o f the Bureau of Labor Statistics standing at 152 on November 30, as compared with 153 in October, and 156 in Novem ber, 1922. O f the various commodities, corn and silk were lower, but pig iron, raw wool, and cotton advanced. The banking situation continues to be satisfactory. Money rates are easier, and rates on commercial paper are about % per cent below those o f a month ago. EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES Employment and wages at reporting manufacturing establishments in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Dela ware declined from October to November. The 1,057 industrial plants included in our survey reported a total o f 413,260 wage earners on the payroll, as compared with 419,042 in the previous month— a decline o f 1.4 per cent. Average weekly earnings were about 1 per cent smaller in November, and total wages paid decreased 2.3 per cent. The latter figure closely repre sents the actual decline in plant operations, as the reported changes in wage rates were negligible both in number and amount. Hence, the reduction in total wages paid reflects less employment and shorter work ing hours. W age increases o f from 1 to 25 per cent 4 T he B usiness ... ■ R January eview ....... .............- ..... . .........— ------ - ---- . SYNOPSIS OF BUSINESS CONDITIONS Compiled as of December 22, 1923 Business Demand Third Federal Reserve District Prices Brick Fair Unchanged Chemicals Poor to fair Weak Cigars Good Firm Coal, anthracite Fair to good Coal, bituminous Poor Unchanged to lower Unchanged to lower Coke Fair Unchanged Confectionery Good Cotton goods Poor to fair Firm Unchanged to higher Drugs, wholesale Fair Decreasing Drygoods, wholesale Fair Increasing Floor coverings Gas and electric fix tures Fair to good Unchanged Fair Unchanged Glass Fair to good Unchanged to higher Groceries, wholesale Good Firm Fair Hosiery, seamless Fair Firm Unchanged to lower Unchanged to higher Iron and steel Fair Unchanged Leather belting Leather, heavy Fair Poor to fair Leather, upper Poor to fair Lumber Oils Paint Paper Fair to good Fair to good Fair to good Fair Pottery Fair Lower Lower Unchanged to lower Weak Firm Unchanged Weak Unchanged to lower Hardware, wholesale Hosiery, fullfashioned Fair Printing and publishing Shoes, manufacture Shoes, retail Shoes, wholesale Fair to good Silk goods Poor to fair Silk, thrown Poor to fair Tobacco leaf Underwear, heavy weight Underwear, light weight Woolen and worsted goods Woolen and worsted yarns Fair Unchanged Unchanged Unchanged Unchanged to lower Unchanged to lower Firm to higher Fair Firm to higher Poor to fair Labor situation Supply Wr ages Collections Moderate to heavy Moderate Moderate to light Sufficient Unchanged Poor to fair Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good Moderate Sufficient Unchanged Fair Heavy Sufficient Unchanged Fair Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good Moderate to heavy Moderate Moderate to light Moderate to heavy Moderate to heavy Moderate Moderate to light Moderate to light Moderate to heavy Moderate Some scarcity Fair to good j i Fair Poor to fair Sufficient Unchanged Good Some scarcity Fair Sufficient Fair to good Fair to good Fair Moderate Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good Moderate Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good i Moderate to heavy Moderate Heavy Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good Sufficient Sufficient Unchanged Unchanged Good Fair to good Heavy Sufficient Unchanged Good Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate to light Sufficient Sufficient Sufficient Sufficient Unchanged Fair Good Fair Fair to good Firm to lower Poor to fair Fair Poor to fair Finished stock Sufficient Fair to good Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate to heavy Sufficient Slightly higher Fair to good Fair to good Poor to fair Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good Light Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good Moderate Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good Firm to higher Light Sufficient Unchanged Fair to good Poor to fair Generally unchanged Sufficient Unchanged Fair Poor to fair Firm to higher Moderate to light Moderate to light Sufficient Unchanged Fair Moderate Fair , T r924 hird F R ederal eserve D istrict 5 EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES IN PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE Group and Industry Number of plants reporting Novem ber 15,1923 AH industries: (47)................. Metal m anufactures: Automobiles, bodies and parts. Car construction and repair... Electrical machinery and appa ratus ...................................... Engines, machines and machine tools...................................... Foundries and machine shops . Heating appliances and appa ratus ...................................... Iron and steel blast furnaces. . Iron and steel forgings. . . . . . . Steel works and rolling mills . . Structural iron works.............. Miscellaneous iron and steel... Shipbuilding............................. Non-ferrous metals.............. Textile products: Carpets and rugs..................... Clothing................................... Hats, felt and other................ Cotton goods........................... Silk goods................................. Woolens and worsteds............. Knit goods and hosiery........... Dyeing and finishing textiles.. Miscellaneous textile products. Foods and tobacco: Bakeries.................................... Canneries....................„ ........... Confectionery and ice cream. . Slaughtering and meat packing Sugar refining.......................... Cigars and tobacco................. Building m aterials: Brick, tile and terra cotta prod ucts ....................................... Cement..................................... Glass......................................... F ottery..................................... 1,057 Per cent November 15, 1923 change 413,260 419,042 - .9 2.3 $26.46 $26.69 - _ 3.6 + 11-2 — 6.4 28.42 28.21 32.11 28.80 27.11 31.59 + + 1.6 .8 1.4 $10,933,578 $11,185,322 - 407,725 402,169 + 1.4 23.83 23.64 + 13,094 14;522 .0 13.088 + 15,047 — 3.5 34 5,586 40 4,554 363,976 43 9,88 9 _ 5.1 - 8.0 26 .39 27 .86 27.81 29.23 _ 5.1 — 4.7 4,604 12,985 4,984 51,790 2,811 28,262 4,713 13,123 5,162 51,397 2,989 30 ,609 11,997 3,849 135,922 37 5,42 0 136,660 1,463,327 75,679 80 7,02 2 34 7,76 4 120,095 142,764 368,941 140,395 1,497,563 78,866 899,891 341,384 117,074 29.52 28.91 27.42 28.26 26.92 28 .56 29.25 29.18 30.29 28.11 27.20 29.14 26.39 29.40 28.46 30.42 17,015 + 36 72 16 47 9 7 Per cent change .6 17,113 10 October 15, 1923 5,9 50,6 57 183 446 974,299 36 52 Per cent Novem change ber 15,1923 5,7 35,5 15 204,048 911,713 20 1,79 7 7,234 28,394 11 12 October 15, 1923 206.600 — 2.3 6,766 + 6 9 30,845 — 7.9 346 24 14 11,888 4,116 — — — + — — — + 2.3 1.1 3.4 .8 6.0 7.7 .9 6.9 _ 4.8 + 1.8 2.7 _ 2.3 — 4.0 — 10.3 + 1.9 + 2.6 _ 2.5 + + 2.8 .8 + 2.0 + 2.8 3.0 2.9 4.1 80,411 — 1.0 .0 4,455 + 7,731 — 2.6 5,954 — .8 7,841 — 5.3 21 ,547 — 3.2 .2 14,706 + 10,396 + 1.9 5,535 + 4.5 2,246 + 2.0 1,728,881 123,066 148,134 140,250 172,061 399,269 32 3,44 5 197,353 171,901 53,402 1,771,688 130,571 149,927 132,275 182,761 430,632 331,469 204,225 155,841 53,987 28,891 4,810 3,374 5,915 3,007 4,444 7,341 — 1.9 .4 + — 9.5 — .5 + 2.7 L1.0 + 2 5 62 6,56 0 123,312 65,839 113,920 85,015 117,593 120,881 656,663 127,258 66 ,107 113,288 85.161 141,610 123,239 _ 22.11 15 4 23 28,333 4,829 3,052 5,887 3.0 89 3,954 7,522 17.0 - 1.9 24 .54 21 .57 19.35 27.52 29 .74 16.07 22.73 26 .46 19.59 19.15 28.32 31.87 16.79 — 6.7 — 4.3 81 23,238 22,861 + 1.6 659,210 658,027 + .2 28.37 28.78 - _ 7.2 26.70 29.07 26 .49 31 .83 26.84 30 .10 26 .37 32.45 .5 — 3.4 .5 + — 1.9 — 2.8 — .6 + 5.5 29.83 25 .50 27.74 26.05 32.57 28.79 25 .69 27.34 25.44 30.91 + — + + + 1.9 25.71 25.58 + 1.0 1.0 + 12.1 21 .90 24 .46 31 .42 25.95 20.33 17.42 23 .85 33 .65 25.92 23.42 21 .73 22.18 24.41 29 .19 27.07 19.97 19.29 25.03 31 .85 25.22 24.61 21 .43 + + — + — — + + — + 264 15 39 8 24 71 34 47 17 9 94 22 10 20 22 14 28 17 3,154 7,648 8,077 4,359 3,380 7,267 7,852 4,362 — 6.7 + 5.2 + 2.9 — .1 84,222 222,305 21 3,92 2 138,761 90,712 218,747 20 7,03 9 141,529 29 ,530 8,5 88 2.819 1,422 16,701 2.3 — 6.2 — 4.2 — 3.0 .1 + 86 0,62 7 20 5,33 9 74,888 35 ,950 544,450 85 0,06 9 22 0,40 6 77,060 36,170 516,235 50,749 + 1.4 1,322,785 1,298,218 + 2.3 — 1.2 + 4.2 51,810 85,061 313,990 224,558 15,434 98,433 141,716 133,269 135,953 67,505 55,056 51,303 85,891 280,012 238,546 14.780 112,438 139,142 120,399 128,077 71,283 56,347 71 41 13 7 28,850 8,054 2,700 1,380 16,716 M iscellaneous Industries: Lumber and planing mill prod ucts ..................... ................. Furniture. . . I . ! ! ! ! ! ' . ! ! . ! " ! Musical instruments............... Leather tanning....................... Leather products..................... Boots and shoes....................... Paper and pulp products....... Publishing.......... Rubber tires and goods........... -■'Welties and jewelry............. AH other industries................. 201 51,460 8 2,366 3,477 9,992 8,652 759 5,651 5,941 3,960 5,246 2,882 2,534 10 23 6 37 8 30 24 25 18 10 12 2,313 3,5 19 9,592 8,812 740 5,828 5,560 3,7 80 5.079 2,S97 2,629 _ — + 1.8 2.6 3.0 + 6.9 + 4.8 + 3.3 — .5 — 3 .6 — _ 2.4 — 5.7 — 1.2 — 1.3 4.1 79,582 4,456 7,531 5,909 7,427 20,855 14,735 10,595 5,782 2,292 Chemicals and allied produ cts: Chemicals and drugs............... Explosives................................ Paints and varnishes............... Petroleum refining................... October 15, 1923 Average weekly wages week ended Total weekly payroll week ended Number of wage earners reported— week ended + 6.0 5 9 — 7.3 — 2.4 — 3.4 + 10.3 - 1.1 4.6 — 3.1 — .4 .6 + .2 + + 1.6 3.3 2.0 + 1.2 6.9 + + — 5.9 + 4.4 -1 2 .5 + 1.8 + 10.7 + 6.1 — 5.3 — 2.3 21.72 27.62 19.67 23.73 23.17 19.15 21.95 18.63 29 .73 23 .30 22.03 29.31 19.39 22.22 23.31 19.99 22 .54 19.64 28 .16 24.04 — — + + — — — — 1.4 5.8 1.4 6.8 .6 4.2 2.6 5.1 + 5.6 — 3.1 — 2.7 — 7.3 + 10.1 + 1.0 2.8 1.4 — — 3.6 .7 1.5 2.4 5.4 .5 1.3 .2 7.6 4.1 1.8 9.7 4.7 5.7 2.8 4.8 1.4 6 T he B were reported by 47 establishments, affecting 1,692 employes; whereas decreases affecting 1,417 workers were reported by 10 employers. Thus, less than 1 per cent o f the total number o f employes received increases or decreases in wages. Employment decreased in most o f the industries in cluded in the survey, and only two groups— building materials and miscellaneous industries— showed in creases. In the former group noticeable gains occurred in cement mills and glass plants, while in the latter group the largest increases were in paper and pulp mills, printing establishments, and musical instrument fac tories. The biggest decreases in employment occurred at sugar refineries, canneries, car repair shops, and miscellaneous iron and steel plants. A smaller total weekly payroll was reported in 30 o f the 47 industries, and average weekly earnings were less in 25 industries. Reports received by this bank from mercantile firms ir the Third Federal Reserve District record seasonal changes in employment at these establishments. Retail stores report an increase of 9.4 per cent and wholesale houses a decrease of .8 per cent. FINANCIAL CONDITIONS A falling off in commercial loans from 354 millions on November 14 to 347 millions on December 12 is reported by member banks in four cities o f the Third Federal Reserve District. This brings this item down to the lowest point since May 23. An increase in secured loans from 274 to 281 millions offsets this decline, how ever, so that total loans and discounts remained prac tically unchanged. Investments declined and deposits increased, both in slight amount. Discounted bills at the Federal Reserve Bank o f Philadelphia, after decreasing to 51 millions on Novem ber 21, again turned upward, and on December 19 stood at 61 millions. The total o f bills bought and United States securities remained unchanged during the fourweeks period, deposits declined from 118 to 114 millions, and total reserves increased from 260 to 265 millions. The usual upward trend at this season increased the circulation o f Federal reserve notes from 213 to 230 millions, but the reserve ratio decreased from 78.5 to 77.0 per cent. It is interesting to compare the latest figures with those o f a year ago. This is done in the tabulation be low for the Federal Reserve Bank o f Philadelphia and the Federal reserve system. It will be observed that in the earning asset items the trends were similar— discounts and bills bought in creased and United States securities decreased. But note circulation in the Third Federal Reserve District is higher than it was a year ago, whereas in the country as a whole it is lower. Total reserves increased in both sets o f figures, but it is evident that the Federal Reserve Bank o f Philadelphia holds a greater percentage of the total. R usiness January eview Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia All figures in millions of dollars Federal reserve system Dec. 20, Dec. 19, Dec. 20, Dec. 19, 1922 1923 1922 1923 Bills discounted.............................. Bills bought.................................... United States securities................. 54 22 35 61 27 13 616 252 431 750 322 81 Total earning assets................... 111 101 1,299 1,153 225 110 240 230 114 265 2,457 2,296 1,882 1,883 3,157 3,163 Federal reserve note circulation.. . Total deposits................................. Total reserves................................. Reserve ratio................................... 71.7% 77.0% 72.8% 75.7% Transactions on the New Y ork Stock Exchange hov ered around one million shares a day during the past month, which is in marked conSecurities trast with conditions two and three months ago. This activity has been accompanied by higher prices for industrial shares. The average price o f 20 o f these was $93.63 on December 19, as against $91.35 a month ago. The average for 20 railroad shares, however, declined from $80.56 to $79.34. Second-grade rail bonds and public utility bonds advanced fractionally, and the average of four Liberty bonds advanced from $97.54 to $98.51. Sales of bankers’ acceptances to the Federal Reserve Bank declined in the period from November 15 to December 12, but this falling off Bankers' was largely counterbalanced by acceptances larger sales to out-of-town banks and to purchasers other than banking institutions, so that only a small decline in the weekly average o f all sales resulted. Purchases o f acceptances by dealers dropped from an average o f $1,210,000 a month ago to $688,000 in the latest period. Comparative figures of the transactions o f five dealers in the Third Federal Reserve District follow : Sales in Third District Weekly average for period To Federal Reserve Bank To others Purchases in Third District 1923— Nov. 15 to Dec. 1 2 ............ $ 2 ,215 ,000 $ 1 ,045 ,000 28 6,00 0 Oct. 11 to Nov. 1 4 ............. 3 .0 71.0 00 28 1,00 0 Sept. 12 to Oct. 1 0 ............. 2 .5 20.0 00 31 1.00 0 Aug. 16 to Sept. 1 1 ......... 1.549.000 $ 688,000 1.210,000 32 4.00 0 42 4.00 0 1922— Nov. 13 to Dec. 1 6 ............ 1.670.000 60 5.00 0 22 4.00 0 The offering rate for 30 day bills is 4 per cent and for 60 and 90 day bills— 4 x per cent. Bids average J/6 /s o f one per cent higher. Data on the acceptances created by twelve reporting banks in this district fo llo w : T ! 924 hird For the month ending F ederal 1922 1923 J a n .10 Feb. 10. . March 10 April 10....... May 10. . June 10.. July 10.. Aug. 1 0 . . . . Sept. 10.. . Oct. 10.. Nov. 10. . Dec. 10. . . $ 4 ,095 ,000 3.7 64.0 00 3 .5 13.0 00 4.2 40.0 00 3.7 67.0 00 3 .7 43.0 00 3.7 57.0 00 2.7 15.0 00 3 .2 71.0 00 3.0 82.0 00 5.9 19.0 00 3.0 99.0 00 $ 4 ,4 4 5 0 0 0 5.0 07.0 00 2.3 65.0 00 3.0 97.0 00 3.2 74.0 00 4 .6 12.0 00 2.8 95.0 00 3.9 66.0 00 3.0 20.0 00 3 .2 18.0 00 5.6 61.0 00 3.4 65.0 00 Totals. . . . $44,96 5,00 0 R eserve D istrict 7 as compared with the figures for 1922, are given for those counties from which ten or more complete reports were received, together with comparisons o f the state and district totals. Regular monthly reports from 79 banks in the Third Federal Reserve District show an increase o f 0.4 per cent in savings deposits during November. Increases are reported in 11 out o f the 13 cities. Percentages o f increase or decrease by cities are shown in the preced ing table. $4 5,02 5,00 0 CHRISTMAS SAVINGS Third Federal Reserve District Christmas savings clubs Reports on Christmas savings clubs and other savings deposits, in answer to questionnaires forwarded to all « . banks in the Third Federal Re» ° s .. serve District early in December, deposits J elicited complete replies on Christ mas savings from three-fourths o f the banks, and on other savings deposits from two-thirds. O f 914 reporting banks 599 established Christmas savings clubs in 1923, and reported an increase in such deposits from $19,325,000, in 1922 to $25,727,000 this year, a gain o f 33 per cent. The number o f depositors increased from 490,000 to 605,000, or 24 per cent. R e ports were received from 96 banks in Philadelphia, and their combined figures show an increase from $3,785,000 to $5,646,000, or 49 per cent, in the course o f the year. Data on other savings deposits, though not as com plete as the foregoing, are representative o f the district. Such deposits at the reporting banks increased from $734,599,000 in 1922 to $839,382,000 in 1923, or 14 per cent, and the number o f depositors increased from 1,882,000 to 2,069,000, or 10 per cent. In the table below percentages o f increase or decrease, SAVINGS DEPOSITS Third Federal Reserve District Number of banks Per cent increase or decrease December 1 compared with Month ago Altoona....... Chester........ Harrisburg. . Johnstown... Lancaster. Philadelphia. Heading....... Scranton. .. . Trenton....... Wilkes-Barre Williamsport. Wilmington.. York.. . . . . . Other cities.. Totals 5 5 4 5 3 9 3 6 6 5 4 5 5 14 79 Year ago + 2 .4 + 1.7 - .4 + .4 + 1.3 + -1 + 2 .9 + .7 + .6 + 1.0 - .01 + .4 + 1.2 + -8 + -4 + 15.0 + 13.9 + 2 3 .3 + 13.3 + 2 9 .4 + 8.2 + 16.0 + 17.0 + 4.3 + 2 4 .5 + 8.5 + 9.9 + 14.4 + 16.8 + 10.5 Number oi depositors Other savings deposits Deposits Number o: depositors Pennsylvania: Adams........................... Berks............................ Blair............................. Bucks............................ Cambria....................... Carbon......................... Chester......................... Clearfield...................... Columbia..................... Cumberland................. Dauphin....................... Delaware...................... Franklin....................... Lackawanna................. Lancaster..................... Lebanon....................... Lehigh........................ Luzerne......................... Lycoming..................... Montgomery................ Northampton............... Northumberland.......... Philadelphia................. Schuylkill..................... Y ork............................. + 11 “ +24 “ +32 “ + 15 “ + 15 “ + 15 “ + 16 “ + 19 “ + 19 “ +23 “ +41 “ + 14 “ + 18“ +22 “ +34 “ +34 “ +27 “ +26 “ +42 “ + 14 “ +25 “ +30 “ +49 “ +49 “ +43 “ +26 « New Jersey: Atlantic........................ Burlington.................... Camden........................ Mercer.......................... + + + + + 11 “ “ + 16 “ +22 “ + + 12 % +37 “ + 21 % +21 “ +59 “ +30 “ +32 “ + 16 + 8 +25 +57 +30 + 16 +34 +64 + 7“ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ 4% + 8 “ + 10 “ + 10 “ +11 “ + 14 “ + 5 “ + 18 “ + 4 “ + 6 “ +34 “ +20 “ Deposits + + + + + + + + + + 11 % 11 “ 13 “ 14 “ 17 “ 11 “ 11 “ 17 “ 16 “ 4 “ +20 “ + 15 “ 5 “ 14 “ + 11 “ + 14 “ +32 “ + 18 “ + 10 “ + 16 “ + 6“ +23 “ + 13 “ +22 “ + 14 “ +23 “ + 12 “ + 10 “ + 18 “ + 6“ + 9“ + 2“ + 6“ + 13 “ +44 “ + 9 “ 3 “ 17 “ “ “ “ “ 10 “ 17 “ 4“ 15 “ 13 “ 19 “ 7“ 16 “ 14“ + 16 “ +22 “ +36 “ + 15 “ + 8“ +27 “ + 14% + 10 + 8 +23 + 11 + + + + + + + + + +25 Delaware: K ent............................. New Castle................... Sussex........................... Pennsylvania................... New Jersey...................... Delaware.......................... + 26“ +36 “ + 12 “ +42 “ +21 “ +43 “ + 10 “ + 9 “ +24 “ Third District.............. + 24% +33% + 10 % Sales o f commercial paper during December have in creased over those o f November and will likely also . exceed those made in December, Commercial 1922. Some Philadelphia banks PaPer have purchased heavily, and country banks have continued to buy in fair volume. 8 T he B usiness Rates have declined somewhat, although it can scarcely be said that the decrease amounts to a full quarter o f one per cent. Last month, sales at 4j4 per cent in this district were few, but recently large sales have been consummated at that figure, and comparatively few transactions are at more than 5 per cent. On the Pacific Coast a few notes are said to have sold at as low as 434 per cent, but no dealings at that rate have been reported in this district. The supply o f paper is fair, and new offerings are in light volume, as makers o f paper are in some cases refusing to increase their outstanding bills payable until after January 1. During November the sales by six dealers in this dis trict, as reported to the Federal Reserve Bank, were $5,971,500, as against $8,653,000 in October and $5,717,448 in November, 1922. Purchases by Philadelphia in stitutions totaled $2,777,500, and outside purchases $3,194,000. The rates at which these sales were made varied from 4j4 to 5j4 per cent. A t the latter rate, however, the sales were only slightly more than 1 per cent o f the total. O f the balance, the transactions at 5 per cent were in a large majority, although sales at 5/4 Per cent were in fair volume. Since the marked decrease in the value o f nearly all European currencies in the latter part o f November, political developments and other Foreign factors have combined to imexcnange prove the general situation con siderably, Movements in the sterling exchange market have been largely determined by the recent elections, and quotations have advanced greatly since the low point was reached at $4.2816 on November 17. On December 5, sterling was quoted at $4.3889, but later declined and on December 24 was listed at $4.3441. Continental exchanges are always sensitive to sterling movements, and consequently most o f them are higher than they were at this time last month. Belgian francs strengthened during the month but declined somewhat on December 18. French francs on December 24 declined to $.0508, the lowest level on record. Italian lire have been fairly steady at the average level of $.0435, and quotations for Swiss francs have held at close to $.1744. Other former neu tral currencies are stronger than they were four weeks ago. On December 18, guilders were quoted at $.3815 and Spanish pesetas at $.1307, and though these are not high values for the month, they represent a distinct im provement over quotations at this time last month. Scandinavian exchanges are all stronger than they were a month ago. Far Eastern currencies, with the exception of Japa nese yen, are also stronger. Quotations in H ongkong for Chinese tael are higher at $.5123 than they have been at any time this month, and Shanghai currency in touching $.7370 on December 18 reached the highest point in several months. Japanese yen, however, have R January eview steadily declined during December and are now quoted at $.4654, the lowest at any time this year. This con dition is partly ascribed to heavy purchases made abroad. W ith the exception of Chilean pesos, South Am er ican money has appreciated since the end of November. Chilean paper pesos, on December 13, were quoted at $.1056, which was very near to the low point for the year. Canadian dollars have also declined and are now quoted at $.974719. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES Noon cables Par value London............. $4.8665 Paris.................. .1930 Antwerp............ .1930 Milan................. .1930 Vienna............... .2026 Amsterdam....... .4020 Copenhagen. . . . .2680 Stockholm......... .2680 Madrid.............. .1930 Berne................. .1930 .9648 Buenos Aires. . . Shanghai........... .7411 Dec. 20, 1923 Nov. 20, 1923 Dec. 20, 1922 $4.3649 .0518 .0454 .0432 .000014 .3804 .1786 .2634 .1307 .1743 .7310 .7236 $4.3353 .0538 .0461 .0434 .000014 .3766 .1719 .2642 .1308 .1739 .7042 .7145 $4.6078 .0742 .0681 .0506 .000014 .3968 .2053 .2691 .1566 .1888 .8587 .7059 RETAIL.TRADE The holiday trade this year will probably exceed that of last year, which was the largest on record. And this is the more remarkable because many stores last year were taxed to about the limit o f their facilities. In some o f the smaller cities and towns the open weather is said to have retarded sales o f seasonable articles and to have reduced business somewhat. In the depart ment stores nearly all departments are showing gains as compared with last year. Pianos, furniture, house furnishings, and jewelry are selling particularly well. Sales o f carpets and rugs, on the other hand, are scarcely as large this year as they were last, at least in some of the stores. In nearly all departments articles of medium price are selling more freely than those of high price. The accompanying table indicates that sales in the Third Federal Reserve. District during November were 10.0 per cent greater than in November, 1922. This gain is not as large as that made in October, but the present comparison is with a month o f unusually good business. Sales in cities in the eastern part o f the district, Chester excepted, show a satisfactory gain, but in certain sections they have suffered because of part-time work in the steel mills and bituminous coal mines and the laying off o f some railroad shopmen. Credit houses report that one reason why they are not gaining as much as other stores is that the demand for furniture has fallen off. T !924 hird F ederal R eserve D istrict 9 RETAIL TRADE Third Federal Reserve District 1 Comparison of stocks Comparison of net sales Nov., 1923 with Nov., 1922 July 1 to Nov. 30, 1923 with July 1 to Nov. 30, 1922 Nov. 30, 1923 with Nov. 30, 1922 Nov. 30, 1923 with Oct. 31, 1923 Rate of ;urnover* July 1 to July 1 to Nov. 30, Nov. 30, 1922 1923 Percentage of orders outstanding Nov. 30, 1923 to total purchases in 1922 A ll reporting firms.......................................... firms in— Philadelphia.................................. —Allentown, Bethlehem and Easton —Altoona.......................................... — Chester.......................................... — Harrisburg.................................... — Johnstown..................................... — Lancaster.................................. . . — Reading......................................... —Scranton........................................ —Trenton......................................... —Wilkes-Barre................................ —Williamsport................................. —Wilmington................................... —Y ork.............................................. —All other cities.............................. + 10.0% + 11.2 “ + 7.3 “ + 3 .4 “ - 6.1 “ + 10.3 “ - 9 .2 “ + 7.4 “ + 12.7 “ + 12.3 “ + 8.0 “ + 8.6 “ + 4.3 “ + 6 .4 “ + .2 “ + 6.8 “ + 11.3% + 11.8 “ + 7 .8 “ + 13.2 “ + 13.1 “ + 10.7 “ + 6 .8 “ + 8.8 “ + 11.7 “ +20.3 “ + 7.4 “ + 13.2 “ + 2.3 “ + 6 .2 “ + 4.0 “ + 10.7 “ 13.6% 9 .8 “ 7 .9 “ + 15.2 “ + 8.2% + 13.3 “ - 1.2“ + 2 .3 “ 3.2 3.7 2.3 2.5 3.2 3.6 2.3 2.5 17.2 “ 16.2 “ + 10.2 “ + 13.0 “ +24.0 “ + 15.0 “ +28.3 “ + 16.7 “ + 11.6 “ + 5.2 “ + 6 .9 “ + - + + + — - 1.3 “ 1.8 “ 1.2 “ 2 .5 “ 2.4 “ 1.4 “ 3.3 “ 2.7 “ .9 “ 8 “ 2 .0 “ 22 27 22 2.0 2.6 26 28 19 1.8 2.3 2.4 24 29 23 2.0 28 27 31 24 1.9 3.2 “ 2.5 2.9 AH department stores.................................... department stores in Philadelphia............... department stores outside Philadelphia. . . . + 9.5“ + 10.4 “ + 7 .0 “ + 10.6 “ + 10.7 “ + 10.3 “ + 10.9 “ + 9.7 “ + 13.5 “ + 9.7 “ + 15.2 “ .4 “ 3.6 2.4 3.2 3.5 2.5 6.9 “ 8.1 “ 4.6 “ All apparel stores........................................... Men's apparel stores...................................... —in Philadelphia.................................... —outside Philadelphia........................... V omen’s apparel stores................................. k —in Philadelphia.................................... —outside Philadelphia........................... + + + + + + + 17.8 “ 6 .0 “ 4.1 “ 8.6 “ 17.5 “ 19.5 “ 9.0 “ + 16.6 “ + 6.7 “ + 3.6 “ + 10.2 “ + 19.9 “ + 2 3 .4 “ + 6.7 “ + + + + + + + + - 1.3 “ 1.1 “ 4.9 “ 1.8“ 5.1 “ 5 .6 “ 3 .8 “ 2.1 2.5 1.8 5.0 5.7 2.9 3.5 2.3 2.6 1.9 4.3 4.7 3.3 3.3 “ 19.3 “ Credit houses.................................................. + 4 .6 “ + 12.2 “ +27.8 “ + 3.3 “ 2.6 2.9 3.0 “ + + + + + 12.4 “ 10.1 “ 8.5 “ 11.6 “ 4.3 “ .1 “ 18.7“ 3.2 3.5 6.3% 6.9 “ 3.6 “ 4.3 “ 23 19.3 2.6 2.7 1.8 “ “ “ “ “ *Times per year based on cumulative period. WHOLESALE TRADE Sales at wholesale during December have, as usual, been smaller than were those o f November, but the volume is good and in most lines will probably exceed that o f last year. Prices as a whole have changed but little, except those on cotton goods, which during the month have advanced sharply. Buyers, however, have m many cases declined to purchase at the higher quota tions, and sales o f many articles made of cotton have decreased. During November, sales in all reporting lines were smaller than in October. A s compared with November, 1922, sales o f shoes and drygoods decreased, but those o f groceries, drugs, and hardware gained. Collections during November were considerably slower in all lines than they were in October, and except in groceries were not as good as in November, 1922. December sales by wholesale shoe dealers are re ported to be poor or fair, and the total will probably be smaller than it was in December, Shoes 1922 A s is usual at this season, rubber shoes, and slippers o f vari ous kinds for the holiday trade, are the most active lines. In women’s stylish shoes, suede and velvet strap pumps are in fair request, and some buying o f oxfords in both tan and black is noted. M en’s high shoes in both brown and black, and misses’ and children’s high shoes, mostly in tans, have moved in steady volume. Purchases o f shoes by wholesalers for the spring trade are stated to be smaller than usual for this season; and only a few dealers report that they have gained any concessions in price, and these have been small and only on certain lines. Stocks are in most cases classed as moderate and as somewhat larger than they were last year. Col lections are from poor to fair. During November, sales in this district, as reported to the Federal Reserve Bank, fell off 24.9 per cent from those of October and were 15.1 per cent less than in November, 1922. The ratio of accounts outstanding to sales stood at 310.8 on N o vember 30, 244.3 on October 31, and 250.5 on Novem ber 30, 1922. Jobbers state that for this season o f the year the demand for groceries is good, but that it is not as heavy as it was in November or OctoGroceries her. Deliveries on “ futures” o f the new-pack canned goods and o f dried fruits and vegetables are always heavy during IO T he B usiness October and the first half o f November, so a decline in sales is always looked for in December. Holiday spe cialties,— nuts, raisins, canned fruits, mince meat, dried fruits, candy, and canned vegetables— have been the most active sellers during the month, although staple groceries, too, have been in demand. Prices have held fairly steady. Some commodities, particularly raisins, nuts, corn meal, hominy, dates, figs, peanuts, and brooms, have fallen slightly in price; but jellies, pre serves, sardines, rice, canned corn, and molasses have advanced. The majority o f grocers have heavy stocks on hand, and although some report that stocks are lighter than they were a month ago, in most cases they are as large as in November. A decided decline in buying in the last week o f November caused sales for that month to be smaller than those o f October, but they exceeded those of November, 1922. Our reports from wholesale grocers show that November sales were 5.8 per cent smaller than those o f October, but 8.8 per cent greater than those o f November o f last year. The ratio o f accounts outstanding to sales increased from 104.0 in October to 112.1 in November. R eview January The demand for hardware is only fair; it is poorer than it was in November, but slightly better than at this time last year. This is shown by Hardware the net sales o f 30 hardware firms in the Third Federal Reserve Dis trict during November, which decreased 17.5 per cent from those o f the month before, but advanced 2.1 per cent over the net sales in November, 1922. Our November sales index, compiled from the reports o f 20 represen tative firms, was 112, a decrease o f 20 points from that o f the preceding month, but 1 point above the index number for. November o f last year. Total sales o f hardware by months since January, 1922, are shown in the chart below. The call for sporting accessories and holiday wares, which figured prominently in the market during November, has noticeably declined, as has the demand for builders’ and plumbers’ hardware. Seasonal goods are, o f course, selling in good volume, and in a few cases substantial sales to mining interests have been reported. Sales o f drygoods have been smaller during Decem ber than they were in November, but that is a normal condition. A s compared with the Drygoods sales o f December, 1922, estimates vary, but it seems probable that the total will be smaller this year. One o f the reasons given for this is that the mild weather has retarded sales o f heavy goods at retail and made replacement orders smaller than was expected. The great majority o f the orders in the hands of wholesalers call for prompt shipment and are for goods wanted before Christmas. Some orders are for delivery during the first quarter o f 1924, but the volume o f these has been considerably lessened by the advance in quotations on nearly all lines o f cotton goods. Many retail buyers when asked to pay these advances have re fused. Sellers claim that this refusal to buy is causing a drastic curtailment in production, especially by New England mills. W holesalers’ purchases o f merchandise for the spring season are stated in nearly every report to be either the same as, or less than, they were a year ago. Present stocks, however, are in all cases classed as either mod erate or heavy. Sales of drygoods at wholesale were 13.7 per cent smaller during November than in October, and 2.8 per cent smaller than in November, 1922. The ratio o f accounts outstanding to sales was 226.7 on November 30, 198.9 on October 31, and 201.5 on November 30, 1922. W holesale hardware sales show a m arked seasonal upswing in the spring and fall, and in October o f this year were at the highest p oin t during the last two years. These sales cover those of reporting firms on ly, and n ot the total for the d istrict. Source—Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Prices in general are firm, and quotations for holiday merchandise and for some grades o f building hard ware are higher than they were at this time last year. In many other lines, however, prices are unchanged, and in a few instances they are lower than they were a year ago. Stocks are from moderate to heavy, and though several wholesale firms describe them as larger than they were last month, an equal number say that they are smaller. In the majority o f cases, however, they are unchanged Collections are only fair and in several instances are said to be poor. The ratio o f accounts outstanding to sales was 178.6 in November, as against 152.1 for October, and 164.9 in November, 1922. T t924 hird F R ederal eserve D istrict i i WHOLESALE TRADE Third Federal Reserve District Percentage of increase or decrease in Number of reporting firms Nov. 1922 Oct. 1923 -2 4 .9 % -1 1 .1 “ -1 3 .7 “ - 5 .8 “ -1 7 .5 “ 11 15 19 60 30 Accounts outstanding Nov. 1923, compared with Oct. 1923 Boots and shoes............... Drugs___ Dry goods............. Groceries.. . Hardware. . Net sales Nov. 1923, compared with -1 5 .1 % + 3.5 “ - 2 .8 “ + 8.8 “ + 2.1 " -3 .7 % -1 .6 “ - 1 .6 “ + .5 “ -3 .3 “ The wholesale drug market is rather quiet, and sales are not as good as they were last month. Jobbers re port that seasonable patent mediDrugs cines used for colds, etc., and pharmaceutical chemicals are in good request, but that the call for toilet articles is not as strong as it normally is at this season o f the year. The demand for botanical drugs is rather light, and prices have declined slightly. The fine chemical market is seasonally quiet, and prices are considerably lower than they were a month ago. The trend o f quotations is shown in the table below, which gives the price indexes o f 40 botanical drugs and 35 drugs and fine chemicals, as compiled by the “ Oil, Paint and Drug Reporter.” Price index of 40 botanical drugs Price index of 35 drugs and fine chemicals 1923 Nov. 26. Dec. 3 . . . Dec. 10___ Dec. 17. 1922 1923 119.7 122.0 122.0 122.3 201.7 198.2 ' 196.0 192.3 Nov. 1922 Nov. 1923 Oct. 1923 Nov. 1922 + + + + + 310.8% 156.6 “ 226.7 “ 112.1 “ 178.6 “ 244.3% 138.2 “ 198.9 “ 104.0 “ 152.1 “ 250.5% 147.6 “ 201.5 “ 114.1 “ 164.9 “ 6.4% 7.5 “ 9.4 “ 7.3 “ 10.4 “ contract withdrawals, especially o f caustic soda and soda ash, have in many cases been satisfactory, and the call from retailers for seasonable articles such as medic inal and pharmaceutical preparations is good. The excellent condition o f the paint and linoleum industries has maintained a strong demand for many pigments such as lithopone. However, as the time for taking inventories has approached, most consumers have shown little disposition to buy goods other than for immediate needs, and as the bulk o f the contracts for 1924 have already been placed, activity in chemicals has subsided. Manufacturers state that as a rule consumers have been quite willing to contract for their requirements during 1924, and the amount of business taken compares favorably with that o f last year. But it is reported that some buyers have offered considerable resistance to 1922 123.5 123.3 123.3 123.3 Ratio of accounts outstanding to sales 175.4 176.0 178.1 178.6 During the latter part o f November sales at whole sale fell off considerably from those o f the early part o f the month, and consequently November sales were smaller than those o f October, but they exceeded those o f November, 1922. Our reports from jobbers show that November sales were 11.1 per cent smaller than those o f October, but 3.5 per cent larger than those o f last November. W holesalers’ stocks vary from moderate to heavy and are about the same as in Novem ber. Collections range from fair to good. The ratio o f accounts outstanding to sales in November was 156.6, as compared with 138.2 in October and 147.6 in Novem ber, 1922. CHEMICALS Largely because o f seasonal factors, the spot demand for chemicals is for the most part rather quiet. But The index num ber of chem ical and drug prices is now only 30 per cent higher than it was in l'/13, but that of all c om m od ities is 52 per cent higher. Source— Bureau of Labor Statistics present prices and the competition among sellers, espe cially in heavy chemicals, has been marked. As a result, contract prices for several important products 12 T he B usiness are lower than they were last year, and spot prices have been rather weak. The chart on page 11 shows that the index o f chemical and drug quotations reached a peak for 1923 in April and a low point in August. This index is still considerably lower than that for all commodities, although the twro were about equal dur ing 1913 and 1914. Production o f chemicals in this district varies, some plants operating at or near capacity while the majority are running only about three or four fifths of their equipment. Stocks o f finished goods and o f raw ma terials in the hands o f producers are moderate. The supply o f both skilled and unskilled labor is sufficient, manufacturers stating that in this respect the situation is more satisfactory than it was several months ago. Several producers have complained that collections are slow. CONFECTIONERY The demand for candies is not as good as it was a month ago, as the holiday season is now closed. H o w ever, manufacturing confectioners report that they have a fair amount o f orders on hand, and until the week before Christmas most of them were working at close to capacity on local or rush holiday orders. The majority o f large manufacturers state that the demand is better than it was in December, 1922, but the smaller producers and a few o f the larger find that it is not T h is chart shows im ports o f crude cocoa fo r the first ten m onths o f each year and not total im ports. During this period of 1923 they were the heaviest on record. Im ports since the close of the war have been m ore than twice as great as those of the years im m ediately preceding the war. Source— Department of Commerce so good. In general, the holiday trade has been satis factory, and sales this fall exceeded those of last year. Hard candies, chocolates, and chocolate-coated candies have been in strong demand, and the call for bar choc olate, baking chocolate, chocolate coating, and cocoa is R January eview excellent. The average o f factory operations in this district is now about 80 per cent. Hand to mouth buying is the rule, and few manufacturers have more than 30 days’ business on hand. Imports o f crude cocoa for the first ten months of this year have been the heaviest on record and were nearly three times as large as those for the same period o f 1913. A s the preceding chart shows, they were almost four times greater than those for the same period o f 1910. Since most of the crude cocoa is used in the confectionery industry, it is evident that the first ten months of the year were months of excellent business. Prices o f candies are holding firm and have not changed during the past two months, but manufacturers report that they are meeting with some resistance to present prices from buyers. Sugar is cheaper than it was a month ago, but quotations on other raw materials show little change. Stocks of both finished products and raw materials at the factories are moderate. The supply o f labor is sufficient and wages are unchanged. Collections are fair and the same as they were last month. BUILDING A sharp seasonal decrease in the number o f building permits issued, and in the value o f the contracts they represent, was evident during November. The value o f permits issued by fourteen cities in the Third Federal Reserve District during that month totaled $10,102,598, or $5,341,030 less than that for the preceding month. The total number issued was 2,438, a decrease o f 861 from the figure for October. In Philadelphia the num ber fell from 1,429 in October to 1,053 in November, representing a decline in value o f $5,543,270. All of the other reporting cities, with the exception o f Atlantic City, W ilmington, and Scranton, showed losses in both the number o f permits issued and total values. These three cities recorded increases in the value o f permits, although the number was in each case smaller than that for the preceding month. The value o f permits issued by all reporting cities during November was $5,254,723 less than that for the corresponding month o f 1922, when a total o f $15,357,321 was reached. Notwithstanding the seasonal decline in building operations the demand for bricks continues to be fair although it is not as good as it was Bricks during November, or in December o f 1922. Unfilled orders are smaller than they were last month, and no difficulty is encountered in making prompt shipments. O f orders now on the books the majority are for delivery within the usual 60 day period, with a fair proportion for up to and beyond 90 days. The rate at which reporting firms are operating varies from 35 to 100 per cent of capacity, and unfilled orders will insure operations at the same rate for from two weeks to several months. A T j 924 F hird R ederal eserve D istrict l3 BUILDING PERMITS Third Federal Reserve District January to November, inclusive November, 1922 November, 1923 1922 1923 Permits Operations Estimated cost Permits Operations Estimated cost Permits Allentown. Altoona. Atlantic City*... Camden. Harrisburg........ Lancaster. Philadelphia. . . . Heading. Scranton* Trenton. Wilkes-Barre* Williamsport*... Wilmington___ York... T otal... 70 145 243 110 37 53 1,053 167 117 125 88 67 85 78 87 149 243 129 46 64 1,335 176 117 176 88 67 85 78 $229,950 200,597 941,947 1,192,045 163,508 156,330 5,406,040 213,775 409,650 319,093 284,307 91,885 379,368 114,103 47 106 306 105 44 37 1,088 192 63 107 163 48 95 103 64 113 306 142 65 37 1,558 208 63 138 163 48 95 103 $149,200 733,383 826,224 248,525 196,370 70,250 11,416,730 374,675 294,970 256,167 431,956 40,218 162,753 155,900 2,438 2,840 $10,102,598 2,504 3,103 $15,357,321 Estimated cost Permits Estimated cost 989 1,797 2,542 1,198 855 868 13,699 2,924 1,410 1,703 1,103 994 1,093 1,390 869 $4,745,070 2,966,284 1,706 8.957.133 3,565 1,142 7,708,894 871 7,319,220 775 3,534,315 118,212,940 13,720 4,259,530 3,040 3,334,659 1,320 6,313,739 1,398 1,274 3.042.133 1,191,749 1,012 3,513,549 988 2,084,829 1,341 $3,224,363 3,041,427 8,223,376 4,058,897 3,728,140 2,581,765 106,913,180 4,710,051 4,593,029 4,174,378 3,876,506 1,516,827 2,694,494 1,262,729 32,565 $177,184,044 33,021 $154,598,862 ^Operations not reported. NEW BUILDINGS AND ALTERATIONS 1923 1922 New buildings Alterations Permits Allentown. Altoona. Camden. Harrisburg. . . . Lancaster Philadelphia.. . Heading. Trenton. Williamsport*.. Wilmington___ Y ork.. Oper ations Estimated cost Permits 43 52 47 30 23 543 45 109 34 73 47 60 56 66 37 34 798 54 160 34 73 47 $179,900 130,655 1,156,560 156,923 130,280 4,627,915 157,650 306,468 82,575 371,824 110,545 27 93 63 7 30 510 122 16 33 12 . 31 Oper ations 27 93 63 9 30 537 122 16 33 12 31 Alterations New buildings Estimated cost $50,050 69,942 35,485 6,585 26,050 778.125 56,125 12,625 9,310 7,544 3,558 Permits Oper ations Estimated cost Permits Oper ations Estimated cost 31 42 49 39 20 534 55 90 32 75 55 38 49 86 60 20 985 71 121 32 75 55 $133,050 720,225 158,345 194,495 32,475 10,887,375 318,900 24C617 36,950 157,306 124,050 16 64 56 5 17 554 137 17 16 20 48 26 64 56 5 17 573 137 17 16 20 48 $16,150 13,158 90,180 1*875 37*775 529^355 55,775 14,550 3^268 5,447 31,850 *Operations not reported few manufacturers state that weather and other con ditions may interfere somewhat with production, but that the output during November was practically the same as that for October. No change in prices o f either building or fire bricks has been noted since this time last month, although as J usual at this season some resistance to present quota s tions is being met and in a few cases concessions are requested. . Stocks o f finished goods are moderate but are increaslng- Supplies o f raw materials, though for the most Part moderate, are in a few instances heavy, and are either stationary or decreasing. Some scarcity o f skilled workers is reported in this district, but the supply o f unskilled labor is plentiful. Collections are from fair to good and show little change from those at this time last month or during the corresponding period o f last year. The call for pottery during the month, though fair, has not been as strong as it was in November but has been better than it was during Pottery December o f last year. Unfilled orders are in about the same vol ume as they were at this time last month, and as is customary at this season, the bulk o f orders are for immediate shipment or at least for shipment within 60 days. In only a few cases are there orders now on the books for delivery beyond two months. Some manufacturers reporting to us state that prices are weak, but an equal number o f others describe them as strong. Although quotations for the most part are unchanged from those o f November, some price cutting T he B usiness has been resorted to in order to stimulate sales during the stock taking season, at which time the dealers are usually out o f the market. In one case a reduction of from 10 to 15 per cent in prices is reported. Stocks o f finished goods are from moderate to light and are in creasing, but supplies o f raw materials, which are moderate and in some instances heavy, are, in general, stationary. The end o f the strike last June found manufacturers with large quantities o f unfilled orders on hand, and therefore operations have since then been at a high rate. A t present, many o f these orders have been com pleted, but production is still at an average rate o f about 80 per cent of capacity. The supply of both skilled and unskilled labor is sufficient and in some cases plenti ful. In 17 factories located in Pennsylvania, New Jer sey, and Delaware there were 4,359 workers employed on November 15, earning average wages o f $31.83 per week. In the week ending October 15, there were 4,362 men on the payrolls, who earned an average weekly wage o f $32.45. Collections are from fair to good, and though un changed from those at this time last month, are more prompt than they were in December, 1922. Demand for lumber is from fair to good, and one dealer reports that the market would be even better were it not for the fact that buildLumber ers are encountering difficulty in financing new operations. A s is to be expected, however, the market is not as strong as it was during November, on account o f the seasonal decline o f all construction work. Some dealers say that the present demand is better than that o f Decem ber, 1922, but others have found it not so good. U n filled orders are somewhat smaller than they were at this time in November, and o f those now on the books, over half are for delivery within two months, and the remainder in from three to four months. Prices as a whole are somewhat unstable, and the granting o f concessions on substantial orders is not uncommon. Quotations for white pine, however, are steady, and prices o f Pacific Coast fir and cedar, by reason o f large sales to Japan, have advanced. Quota tions for yellow pine from the South have declined slightly during the last two weeks. Some firms state that present prices are being met with resistance. Manufacturers’ stocks are moderate and in one in stance even light, but supplies o f raw materials are in some cases light and in others heavy. The majority o f both mills and dealers state that stocks are stationary. Manufacturers reporting in this district are operating at an average o f 85 per cent o f capacity, and orders on hand are sufficient to maintain this rate for from 30 to 90 days. The supply o f both skilled and unskilled labor is sufficient and in some cases plentiful. Collections are fair, and though unchanged since last R eview January month, are slower than they were during December, 1922. The call for most products o f the glass industry is from fair to good, but the majority o f firms reporting in this district state that the volGlass ume o f orders, though noticeably smaller than it was in the preced ing month, is as great as it was in December of last year, it not greater. Most o f the orders already taken are for delivery within 60 days, but some are for shipment up to and beyond 90 days. The individual orders are smaller than they were in November. A few advances in prices o f some grades o f fancy and table glassware have been made, but quotations for plate and building glass are unchanged and in general are regarded as firm. Stocks o f both finished goods and raw materials are from moderate to light and are for the most part sta tionary. Manufacturers reporting to us are operating at from 60 to 100 per cent o f capacity, the average rate being approximately 81 per cent, which is about the same as that for last month. Orders to be filled will insure operations for from two weeks to six months. Labor for all requirements in the industry is sufficient, and in some cases is even plentiful, which is commented upon as being rather unusual. Collections are from fair to good and show little change from those o f either last month or this time last year. Both manufacturers and dealers report that the de mand for paint is from fair to good, and although less insistent than it was during NoPaint vember, is better than in the cor responding month o f last year. Most purchasers are requesting shipments either imme diately or within 60 days. V ery few orders are for delivery after that period and none for beyond 90 days. Prices in general are strong and have changed but little from those prevailing at this time last month. The recent advance in the price o f pig lead had a strengthen ing effect on quotations for lead pigments, but prices of all dry and mixed colors not dependent on lead as a base are unchanged. Quotations for linseed oil are main tained at the spot tank-car price of 92 cents per gallon, for delivery from December to February. Stocks o f finished goods in the hands o f both manu facturers and dealers are moderate and as compared with last month are for the most part stationary, al though in one instance they are increasing. Supplies o f raw materials are not heavy, and though these too are about the same as they were in November, they show a tendency to decrease. Manufacturers reporting in this district are operating at an average o f about 77 per cent o f capacity, and in a short time output will largely go into stock, as is customary during the winter months. In an attempt to change this seasonal nature o f their business some o f the larger firms are trying to educate the public to the advantages o f painting in winter whenever possible. j 924 T hird F ederal R eserve D istrict 15 The supply o f both skilled and unskilled labor IS L sufficient. Collections are fair, and although reports vary» are about the same as they were during last month and in December o f last year. The demand for gas and electric fixtures may be escribed as fair, and while some difference o f opinion given. There are few requests for crude steel, but sizable orders for miscellaneous steel products have been received from various industrial enterprises. The scrap market, though quiet, is characterized as fair. Prices o f a few products have advanced since this time last month, but these gains are offset by declines Gas and electric exists as t0 whether or not it: has in others, so that in general, quotations are unchanged. fixtures improved since last month, it is in For twenty-one successive weeks the composite price general held to be better than it of steel, as computed by The Iron Age, has stood at 2.775 ^as in December, 1922. Most o f the orders already cents per pound. Quotations for pig iron, which ad a en specify delivery within 60 days. Prices o f both vanced during the last part of November, have not &as and electric fixtures are firm and are unchanged only been maintained, but in some cases have gone still rom those quoted at this time last month. higher. On November 20, Philadelphia 2 X pig iron stocks o f finished goods are from moderate to light was quoted at $22.64 per ton. One week later the 1 except for one instance, in which a decrease is re price increased to $24.14 per ton, followed by another 1 ported, are stationary. Raw materials, too, show little advance o f 12 cents on December 4. Since that time, c iange, and supplies o f these are in moderate quantities. quotations have been steady at $24.26 per ton. anufacturers reporting to us are operating at an The production of pig iron declined considerably average o f about 80 per cent o f capacity, which is during November. The total output in the entire coun approximately the same as the average rate for last try was estimated at 2,894,295 gross tons, as compared rnonth. Skilled labor is in some instances scarce, but with 3,125,512 gross tons for the 31 days o f October. is no shortage o f unskilled workers. The average daily output in November was 96,476 gross tons, which was the lowest for the year. The total . S ection s are fair and show little change from eR er those at this time last month or during Decem number of furnaces in blast on December 1 was 231, ber, 1922. a loss o f 14 from the number running on November 1. In this district, on the first o f this month, there IRON AND STEEL were 30 furnaces in blast and 36 blown out, a loss At the time o f the buying movement in pig iron a nionth ago it was expected that the turning point in j market had been reached and that the revival of the demand for tonnages had marked the beginning a more active period in the iron and steel industry. It now appears that the stimulation in purchasing was Tie to the fact that manufacturers were willing to seh at a loss in order to lighten their stocks and con sumers feared that further postponing o f orders was likely to result in a drastic curtailment o f production. Such a result, it was thought, would lead to a rush o f JUynig in order to cover requirements, which for many reasons buyers wished to avoid. But when it became ewdent that the market was capable of meeting the remand, the number o f inquiries naturally declined, and at present the call for pig iron is only fair. The steel market, too, is quiet, and no general increase p Tm and is expected until after the first o f the year, requests for iron and steel castings are fewer than they vveie at this time last month, and sales have been nnde mostly to railroads, crane builders, and building contractors. The call for plates and structural shapes ls a xmt the same as it was during November, and oil ne9 es and mines are taking most o f the deliveries, upphes o f machinery and tools are being sold to pu lie utility companies in fair quantities, but sales lron bars to locomotive and textile manufacturers are s^ . The demand for both light and heavy hard ow ware ranges from poor to good, though for instances ln which it is described as poor, seasonal reasons are Unfilled orders of the United States Steel Corporation have declined steadily since April and are now nearly down to the low point of 1922. The outp ut of pig iron and of steel ingots turned downward in June and is now very near the level prevailing during Novem ber of last year. Source—Iron Age of four from the first o f November. The production of steel ingots during November averaged 119,762 tons per day, representing a reduction o f about 9 per cent from the output for the preceding month. Corporation companies according to The Iron Age, are operating at close to 84 per cent o f capacity, a i6 T he B usiness slightly lower rate than that of last month; but inde pendent companies are maintaining an average rate of 70 per cent, as they did during No\ ember. Unfilled orders of the United States Steel Corporation have declined for the eighth consecutive month. The total for November was 4,368,584 tons, as against 4,672,825 tons for October, a reduction o f 304,241 tons. The decline is illustrated in the chart on page 15, which also depicts the trend o f production o f both pig iron and steel ingots in the last two years. The supply o f both skilled and unskilled labor in most cases is sufficient. On November 15, the total number o f employees in 54 foundries and machine shops declined 3.9 per cent from that on October 15 but the number of workers in 46 steel works and rolling mills increased .9 per cent. The average wage declined 7.3 per cent in the former case and 2.1 per cent in the latter. Collections are from fair to good and are for the most part unchanged since this time last month. COAL The demand for the domestic sizes of anthracite has decreased since November, partly because o f the mild weather prevailing during DeAnthracite cember. The call for nut and stove coal has remained more nearly constant than has that for egg coal, which has fallen off noticeably during the past two weeks. Com paratively speaking, the call for steam sizes, particularly number 2 buckwheat, is poor and is even weaker than it was at this time last month. Spot quotations for Company coal in the domestic sizes are unchanged, but reports received by us state that prices o f some steam grades have been consider ably reduced in an effort to move surplus stocks. H ow ever, the weekly table o f prices, as compiled by The Coal Age, quotes the spot Company prices o f barley and rice sizes on December 17 as being respectively $1.50 and $2.50 per ton, f. o. b. mines, which are the same as those quoted on November 26. Production declined to some extent during the last week in November on account o f the celebration of Thanksgiving Day, but output again increased during the first three weeks o f December. The table below gives the output in tons for the last five weeks and for the corresponding five weeks o f last year. ANTHRACITE PRODUCTION* 1923 Week ending November 17..................... November 24 ..................... December 1...................... December 8 ........................... December 15...................... 1.725.000 net tons 2.230.000 net tons “ 2.100.000 “ “ 2.213.000 “ “ 1.748.000 “ “ 1.852.000 “ “ 1.899.000 “ “ 2.075.000 “ 2.013.000 “ “ 2.237.000 “ ♦Compiled by the Geological Survey. 1922 R January eview A scarcity of labor is reported in some sections of the anthracite fields, but one operator states that although at this season miners move from one mine to another, thus causing temporary shortages, they do not as a rule leave a given locality. During the week ending December 3 the number of inquiries for bituminous increased, and it was thought that there would be a distinct imBituminous provement in the demand, which has been poor for some time past. This hope, however, proved groundless, and there is little call for bituminous in this district at the present time. Some operators report that coal is being shipped to the New England states, where it is assumed that some at least is being used for heating purposes. In general, however, railroads and public utilities continue to be the chief consumers. There is considerable spread between spot prices and contract prices, the former being reported in some cases as lower than the actual cost o f production. Although the spot price o f Pool 10 coal in Philadel phia has ranged from $1.75 to $2.00 during the past month, quotations for a few other grades are slightly lower than they were at this time in November. On account o f the poor demand, production has de clined, as will be seen in the table below, giving the estimated output in tons for the last four weeks. For comparative purposes the output in the corresponding four weeks o f last year is also given. The sharp de cline in production during the week ending December 1, was caused by the general observance o f Thanks giving Day. PRODUCTION OF BITUMINOUS* Week ending 1923 1922 November 24 .................. 10,160,000 net tons 11.100.000 net tons “ 10.387.000 “ December 1.................. 8.923.000 “ “ “ 11.495.000 “ December 8 ....................... 9.829.000 “ “ * 10.667.000 “ • December 15................... 9.828.000 “ “ *Compiled by the Geological Survey. There are heavy stocks on hand throughout the country and they are no doubt increasing, though ac curate data on this subject are difficult to obtain. Operators reporting to us state that their mines are being worked at an average o f less than 50 per cent o f capacity, and in one case the rate is as low as 10 per cent. In other instances the mines are working but two or three days per week. On this account there is no shortage o f labor in the industry at present. The demand for coke, which follows closely that for pig iron, has decreased since the falling off of inquiries for the latter, which succeeded Coke the buying movement o f a month ago. The call is now little more than fair, and producers are not expecting any material improvement until after the first o f the year. j 924 T hird F ederal R eserve D istrict i7 cases is steadily increasing. This is attributed partly to the fact that the granting o f premiums is being ad vocated and in some instances actually practiced. It is claimed also that the oil produced in this state is superior for lubricating purposes to that found in other fields. Production in the Mid-Continent, California, and Powell pools has declined to some extent in recent months, but the output in the Western New Y ork and Pennsylvania fields has been increased by the new methods used for the reclaiming o f crude oil from old territories. Stocks are somewhat greater than they were at this time last year, and although in no instances are they reported in this district as heavy, they are said to be increasing. In contrast to this, stocks in the South and Southwest are said to be unusually large as a result o f overproduction. Since July o f this year, production o f Pennsylvania crude oil has been less than it was in the corresponding period o f 1922, as is shown in the accompanying table. Only two price changes have been made since O cto ber 1. On November i3 a reduction of 15 cents per nces have fluctuated somewhat during the month are now not particularly firm. On December 18 ^urnace coke was quoted at $4.00 per net ton, which was same as it was in the four preceding weeks, and e ?nce ^or foundry grades, after advancing 25 cents <K 0 $5.00 per net ton on December 4, declined on Deceme^.. *° former figure. omce May, the production o f all coke has been de creasing as is shown by the preceding chart which gives the total output by months during the last two years, together with the trend in average prices since the beginning of 1922. Except in the week ending November 24, production of beehive coke has been steadily decreasing since the middle o f September until the week ending December 8. The estimated output during the four weeks ending November 24 was 1,031,000 net tons, a decline o f 127,000 tons from the total for the four weeks of the preceding month. Production figures for e last five weeks are given in the table below. It will e noticed that the figures for the corresponding five weeks in 1922, which are also given, are considerably greater than those for this year. ESTIMATED p r o d u c t i o n o f b e e h iv e c o k e * Week ending N ovem ber 17 N ovem ber 24 D ecem ber 1 D ecem ber 8 D ecem ber 15 = = = ---------- 1923 264.000 net tons 288.000 “ “ 298.000 “ “ 291.000 “ “ 299.000 “ “ J u ly ................................................... ' 616,000 bbls.* 613.000 “ A u gu st.............................................. 569.000 “ Septem ber....................................... 632.000 “ O cto b e r ............................................ 1922 622.000 bbls. 669.000 “ 630.000 “ 664.000 “ T o t a l............................................. 2,430,000 bbls. 2,585,000 bbls. ♦Barrels of 42 United States gallons. ♦♦As estimated by the Geological Survey. barrel went into effect on several grades, and quite re cently quotations for Bradford oil were advanced 25 cents. Present quotations per barrel are as fo llo w s: Bradford-Allegheny, $2.85; Tide W ater and the Emery Pipe Line, $2.60 and $2.61; and Bradford Oil and Refinery, $2.75. The demand for some refined products, such as kero sene and gasoline, is from fair to good, and the call for wax is exceptionally strong. The tank wagon price o f gasoline is 14 cents per gallon in this district, as compared with 15 cents a month ago. The supply o f labor is sufficient in both the fields and the refineries, and in some cases is in excess o f the demand. Collections are characterized as good. COTTON Compiled by the Geological Survey. OIL ^jnce .October, the refinery demand for Pennsylvania rude oil has been from fair to good and in some 1923 1922 246.000 net tons 260.000 “ “ 244.000 “ “ 257.000 “ “ 242.000 " " PENNSYLVANIA CRUDE OIL** During November a steady increase in prices was the outstanding feature o f raw cotton markets, but during December an element o f Raw cotton weakness developed and fluctua tions were marked. On Decem ber 1 spot middling reached 37.65 cents per pound, largely because o f lower estimates o f the crop and o f good buying by mills,, speculators, and foreign agencies. But by December 10 it had dropped to 33.70 cents a i8 T he B usiness pound, after which it again rose, and on December 22 was quoted at 36.30 cents per pound. Factors affecting the supply have continued to be mainly responsible for these changes in price. During the latter part o f November a number o f private agencies estimated the crop to be considerably less than ten million bales; in fact, some estimates were below nine and a half million bales. Then other figures were given which placed the crop at close to ten million bales. A s a result, prices declined sharply, first at Liverpool and soon after at New Y ork and New Orleans. Shortly afterward, government reports on ginnings and pro duction confirmed the larger estimates. The amount o f cotton ginned prior to December 1 was reported by the Census Bureau to be only slightly smaller than that o f the same period last year, and ginnings up to December 13 were 9,548,805 bales, as compared with 9,488,852 bales on the same date in 1922. Further, the Department o f Agriculture placed the production in 1923 at 10,081,000 bales o f 500 pound weight, not including linters, which from 1917 to 1921 inclusive have averaged 6.2 per cent o f lint production. N ot withstanding the assurance o f a somewhat larger crop than was expected in some quarters, however, it must be remembered that the crop is still a comparatively small one and that it does not equal the total of domestic consumption and exports in either of the past two seasons. Since the supply o f cotton has now been more or less accurately determined, attention is being directed to the question o f demand and consumption. Reports of curtailment o f operations in plants making cotton products because o f their inability to get business are increasing. Nevertheless, according to the Depart ment o f Commerce, domestic consumption during the four months ending November 30 aggregated 2,048,912 bales this year, as against 2,133,327 bales in 1922. During the same period exports totaled 2,478,370 bales in 1923, in contrast with only 2,298,199 bales last year. But w orld’s takings o f American cotton to December 21, as shown by the following figures o f the New Y ork Cotton Exchange, were 653,786 bales smaller this year than last. And stocks o f cotton in consuming estab lishments and in public storage in this country on November 30, 1923, were 12 per cent less than on the same date in 1922. Decreased demand, largely due to seasonal influences and to weakness in raw cotton, and upward revisions in the prices o f various finished Cotton goods fabrics were features o f the cot ton goods market during the past month. The same conservatism as has marked the attitude o f buyers for some time is still the rule, and business continues generally unsatisfactory. Few pro ducers have been able or willing to book orders for delivery further than 60 days ahead. The call for tapestry and upholstery goods is reported to be light, R January eview SUPPLY AND TAKINGS OF AMERICAN COTTON* Season of 1923-1924 In Bales Season of 1922-1923 Season of 1921-1922 Visible supply, American, at end of previous season (July 31) 869,968 1,968,159 4,112,651 Crop in sight, American, on Dec. 21................................... 7,921,607 7,924,325 6,464,330 Total....................................... 8,791,575 9,892,484 10,576,981 Visible supply, American, on Dec. 21................................... 3,391,843 3,838,966 4,620,102 World’s takings of American to Dec. 21................................... 5,399,732 6,053,528 5,956,879 ♦Figures compiled by New York Cotton Exchange. and though there has been a fair demand for draperies, this has slackened considerably. Some manufacturers state that they have encountered keen competition from foreign tapestries, especially from Italy. Plush, how ever, is still in good request. In view o f the higher cost of cotton, many advances have been made in quotations on cotton goods, not withstanding poor demand and resistance to prices on the part o f buyers. But as compared with those o f a year ago, quotations are on the average only about 11 per cent higher, whereas prices o f raw cotton show an increase of about 38 per cent. Thus the manu facturer’s margin o f profit has been considerably re duced, and this, coupled with his inability to book sufficient business, has led to the curtailment of oper- C O T TO M _ Consumption Southern states W fflh Northern states Active spindles — _ Southern states Northern states 1912-13 1913-14 1914-15 19B-'K 191617 191718 1918-19 191923 1920^1192t22 192223 19324 There are more active spindles in northern than in southern states b ut the South consum es m uch more cotton than the North. T his is largely attributable to the longer working day in the southern states. T he steady growth of active spindles in the South during the past 10 years is notable. Source—Department of Commerce ations. Although some manufacturers in this district are operating at or near capacity, the majority are running less than three-fourths o f their equipment. In 1924- T hird F ederal R plants making tapestry and upholstery fabrics, from one to two-thirds o f the equipment is reported to be idle. However, curtailment has in most instances pre vented the accumulation o f finished goods in the hands o f producers. Stocks o f raw materials are moderate and are either stationary or decreasing. Reports now indicate that the supply o f labor exceeds the demand. In many fabrics competition for business is keen, and because o f higher operating costs, most o f the cur tailment has occurred in northern rather than in south ern mills. The chart on page 18 shows the increasing importance of the South in cotton manufacturing. Since 1912 the number o f active spindles in southern states has advanced steadily, while in the northern states the number increased but little from 1912 to 1919, and since then has fluctuated sharply and shown a ten dency to decrease. Although there are still more active spindles in the North than in the South, the actual consumption o f cotton is considerably larger in southern than in northern states. This is mainly due to the fact that the working hours per week are fewer in the North than in the South. Evidence o f this is seen in the number o f active spindle hours, which during the first ten months o f 1923 was 27 per cent greater in southern than in northern states. eserve D istrict 19 have steadily diminished and are in general compara tively light. However, notwithstanding the appreciation in quotations, the bulk of the wool held on consignment in this market has not yet been released. The accompanying chart represents the consumption o f wool in this country by sections, the figures covering about 80 per cent o f the industry. It is significant that the great majority of the wool consumed in the United States is used in the New England and Middle Atlantic states. Total consumption during August, September, and October was 15.4, 14.5 and 12.8 per cent respectively, smaller this year than last, although during the first half o f 1923 consumption was 13.1 per cent greater than during the similar period o f 1922. During September, consumption in the Middle Atlantic States reached the lowest point since figures were first collected in May, 1922, but during October the amount consumed increased decidedly. Reports from 88 manu facturers in this district indicate that during November wool consumption was 12.5 per cent larger than during the previous month. WOOL Perhaps the outstanding feature of the local raw wool market has been the rise o f prices in spite of but fair demand and o f strong reRaw wool sistance to quotations on the part o f consumers, who as a rule are finding it rather difficult to sell their products at a profit. Buying o f wool for consumption is believed to have played only a minor part ‘ in the recovery o f raw wool prices in the United States, the principal factor being the persistent increase o f quotations abroad. Reports o f recent auctions in foreign coun tries show that prices were considerably higher than at previous sales. A nd the disparity in price between domestic and foreign wool markets still exists. Con sequently, imports o f raw wool into this country are comparatively small, and although re-exportings have decreased somewhat, they still continue. During the past month, the desire o f consumers to avoid the increase o f stocks prior to taking inventories has caused some slackening in the demand for raw wool, and in a few instances forward datings have been granted. Otherwise, however, the improvement which began during November has been maintained. Medium and low grade wools continue in better request than the finer grades, and dealers are o f the opinion that this is mainly due to a change in production from fine to lower quality merchandise in order to reduce prices. Quotations on fine grade wools have advanced pro portionately less than those on the coarser grades, dealers state that supplies o f raw wool in their hands Of the reported am oun t of wool consumed in this country the Middle Atlantic States use about 42 per cent and the New England States about 49 per cent. Since July, total consum ption has been considerably less than it was last year, although the reverse was true during the first half of 1923. Source— Department of Commerce Spinners of woolen and worsted yarns are almost unanimous in reporting a slackening o f demand during j . the past month. In addition to o ° en and the normal seasonal decrease due wors e yarns tQ t^e hQjjdayg and the taking of inventories, the continued slow movement o f many worsted fabrics has been unfavorable to a better call for yarns. Consequently sales, especially o f weaving yarns, are still unsatisfactory, and duplicate orders have been few. Since woolen goods have sold more actively than worsted fabrics, however, yarns for the former are in better request than those for the latter. Some sampling o f yarns for heavy weight goods has been 20 T he B usiness done by producers of men’s wear, and in a few instances manufacturers have contracted for their future require ments. But this has not been general, and spinners state that most consumers refuse to purchase much in advance of their immediate needs. Requests to post pone deliveries until after January 1 are reported. Problems of the spinner have been further compli cated by the recent increase in the price of raw wool. Owing to the keen competition for business, many spinners are unable to secure advances in quotations on yarns commensurate with those on wool. But in spite of decided resistance to higher prices, quotations are firmer, some spinners having increased them from 5 to 7 / 2 per cent. 1 Although a few producers are operating at capacity, the majority are running only about three-fourths of their equipment, and some curtailment has occurred during the month. Stocks o f yarn and of raw mate rials in the hands of spinners range from light to moderate, but the former are either stationary or in creasing, while the latter are either stationary or de creasing. Reports indicate that the supply of unskilled help exceeds the demand and that that o f experienced help is adequate. Some complaints o f unsatisfactory collections have been made and in general they are but fair. Dulness in the demand for woolen and worsted goods has been accentuated by a seasonal decrease in sales during the past month. Buyers Woolen ana have not wished to increase their worste goo s stocks prior to taking inventory and in some cases have asked for future datings and the postponements o f shipments. Practically all of the busi ness in piece goods for fall has been done, and the de mand for light weight fabrics continues to be of the hand-to-mouth variety, prompt deliveries being re quested. Manufacturers report that low-priced goods are selling more actively than the most expensive varieties, and that woolen fabrics, particularly novelties for women’s wear, have the call over the staple worsteds. Producers o f staple dress goods have sought to meet the demand for fancy fabrics by making goods with dis tinctive designs and colorings. Samples for the 1924 heavy weight season are now in the process of manufacture, and there is consider able speculation as to prices and the date of the open ings. A s regards quotations, it is noteworthy that woolen blanket lines, opened recently, are higher than they were a year ago. However, considerable resist ance to present prices is reported, and owing to poor business in light weight goods, quotations in some in stances have been reduced. A number o f producers are operating on greatly cur tailed schedules, and the average for the district ranges only from 60 to 80 per cent of capacity. But some manufacturers o f woolen novelties for dress goods are running practically all of their equipment. Reports in R January eview dicate that the supply o f both skilled and unskilled help exceeds the demand. Although a few producers are carrying sizable stocks o f finished goods, supplies are for the most part moderately light. Stocks o f raw material range from light to moderate and are decreasing. Collections are in some instances complained o f as being slow, but in general they are fair. SILK N o important changes have occurred in the raw silk market during the past month, and quotations have fluctuated within a comparatively Raw silk small range. Kansai double extra cracks, after advancing from $8.25 to $8.35 per pound on November 24 to from $8.50 to $8.55 per pound on December 5, again weakened, and on December 22 was quoted at from $8.05 to $8.15 per pound. Since the call for finished silks is still dull and producers do not wish to increase their inventories at the present time, demand for raw silk has continued rather quiet. Transactions at Y ok o hama, too, have been relatively small. The following figures, compiled by the Silk A sso ciation of America, show that during November deliv eries of raw silk to American mills were smaller than during any month since July, 1922, with the single exception o f last May. In fact, from August 1 to December 1 imports exceeded deliveries to mills by 11.2 per cent, with the result that stocks in American warehouses increased from 25,459 bales to 35,398 bales. Stocks at Yokohama have also increased, and accord ing to the December 12 report of H . L. Gwalter & Company, were 36,500 bales, as compared with 42,000 bales a year ago. SILK IMPORTS, STOCKS AND DELIVERIES AMERICAN MILLS* Imports during month In bales 1923 January .............. February......... March.............. April................ M ay................. June................. July.................. August............. September....... October........... November....... D ecem ber . 32,593 33 ,759 2 8 ,3 3 0 27,414 25,814 23,727 25,622 36,092 28,837 3 1 ,2 2 9 27,944 . 1922 40,177 19,950 19,746 21,438 34,842 35 ,598 25,575 39,813 38,492 46 ,569 36,733 33 ,057 Storage at end of month Deliveries to American mills 1923 1922 1923 47,087 44,615 39,436 28,657 29,962 25,865 22,914 25,459 27,367 32,679 35,398 31,139 28,982 22.077 19,268 20 ,826 26 ,895 27,474 32,515 36,795 45,893 47.1591 49,174 34,680 36,231 33 ,515 38 ,193 24,509 27 ,824 28,573 33,547 26,929 25,917 25,225 1922 33,842 22,107 26,651 24,247 33 ,284 29,529 24,996 34 ,772 34,212 37,471 35 ,467 31 ,042 Total . . . 321,367 3 9 1,99 0 335,143 36 7,62 0 Monthly average............... 29,215 32,666 32,676 32,350 30 ,468 30 ,635 ♦Silk Association of America. *924 T hird F ederal R Reports of improvement in the demand for silk fabrics are not lacking, but as a rule the dulness which has characterized the business for Silk goods some time has continued during the past month. Consumers still show little inclination to buy beyond their immediate needs, with the result that the great majority of orders on the books o f producers are for delivery in the near future. Still, the demand is not lifeless, and crepes, particularly georgette and crepe-de-chine, are selling in fair quantities for prompt shipment. Printed crepes for spring, too, give promise of being active. Most manufacturers in this district are operating on curtailed schedules, and some are running only about half of their equipment, although the average is some what greater. But this curtailment has evidently not been sufficient to prevent the accumulation o f finished goods, which are reported to be moderately heavy and increasing. On the other hand, supplies of raw mate rial are moderately light and are either stationary or decreasing. Because of the lower quotations on raw and thrown silk, together with the quiet demand and the resistance to prices on the part of buyers, quota tions on silk goods are rather weak, and some reduc tions have been made. Collections are either fair or good. Little change has occurred in the demand for thrown silk. Business continues quiet, and practically all orders are for delivery in the Thrown Silk near future. In the face o f an uncertain and generally dull de mand for their products, neither broad silk nor hosiery mills have purchased thrown silk in other than small amounts as needed. Throwsters who cater to the hosiery trade, however, have at times encountered flurries of buying of silk and wool mixtures. Operations in most instances are still restricted, and some throwsters are running as little as one-fourth of their equipment. A t the present rate of production unfilled orders will insure operations for no more than 30 days in the majority o f mills. Like those on silk goods, quotations on thrown silk are rather weak, and some concessions have been granted. A few complaints o f slow payments have been made, but as a rule col lections are satisfactory. HOSIERY Conditions in the hosiery industry continue to vary a great deal. During late November and early Decem ber the usual demand for the holiday trade was in evi dence, but since then the market, as a whole, has been dull. For the Christmas trade full-fashioned silk hosiery for women was bought in fair quantity, but some manufacturers state that competition was very severe and that sales were made at prices below the cost of manufacture by makers who were desirous of turning large inventories into cash. W om en’s fancy eserve D 21 istrict woolen hosiery has sold slightly better than during recent months, but the demand for it is far smaller than it was a year ago. Full-fashioned mills that sell to the wholesale trade have secured a considerable volume o f business for de liveries over the first half of 1924. In some cases a reduction in price has been made, but as a rule quota tions are about the same as they were during the past season. A s retailers have confined their purchases to merchandise for delivery in the near future, mills sell ing to the retail trade have very little business on their books for shipment later than February. Cotton hosiery has been advanced in price because o f the higher quotations for yarns, but buyers are show ing strong resistance to these increases, and business is decidedly spotty. Artificial silk hosiery for infants has sold fairly well, and mixtures o f artificial and pure silk are among the leading lines for both men’s and women’s wear. Production by 379 mills situated throughout the United States, as reported by the Department o f Com merce, was 14 per cent greater in October than in September. In the Third Federal Reserve District a majority of the reporting mills show a lower produc tion in November than in October, but some mills made substantial gains. In the accompanying table the re ports o f the district mills are summarized. A s will be noted, unfilled orders on hand at the end o f November were smaller than they were at the same period of 1922. HOSIERY INDUSTRY Third Federal Reserve District In terms of dozens of pairs Firms selling to the wholesale trade: Number of reporting firms—30 Product manufactured during month Finished product on hand at end of month............................................. Orders booked during month........... Cancellations received during month Shipments during month................. Unfilled orders on hand at end of month............................................. Firms selling to the retail trade: Number of reporting firms— 9 Product manufactured during month Finished product on hand at end of Nov., 1923 Nov., 1923 compared with compared with Oct., 1923 Nov., 1922 + 2 . 1% 8 .2 % + 8.9 “ + 3 8 .8 “ -4 0 .6 “ - 3.8“ + 2 3 .1 + 19.5 -6 2 .6 .5 + 18.6 “ - 9.5“ - - 3.7% 3 .4 % + 7.8“ 1 .6 “ + 9 9 .1 “ -2 3 .2 “ - Cancellations received during month + + 16.7 + .2 + 2 0 4 .8 - 7.2 “ “ “ “ “ “ “ “ Unfilled orders on hand at end of - 2.5 “ - 20.6 “ Stocks of hosiery at some of the mills are fairly heavy but in others are practically nil. The total of stocks is probably moderate, but not burdensome. As 22 T he B u s i n e s s styles change with considerable frequency, it cannot be definitely stated whether this stock is readily market able or whether it consists in large part of merchandise no longer in style. Collections show but little change during the month, the majority o f the reports classing them as either good or fair. Some manufacturers, however state that col lections are difficult. UNDERWEAR Heavy-weight underwear lines for the autumn o f 1924 have been opened by a few large mills in the South and Middle W est. Sales o f considerable magnitude are said to have been made by them at prices which, though considerably higher than those o f a year ago, are lower than they would be if based on the present cotton mar ket. Last year the prices obtained at the opening were from 5 to 10 per cent above those for the fall season o f 1922, and this year’s prices are at least 15 per cent higher than last year’s. Other large manufacturers decided that they would not open their lines until after January 1, because they believed that the high prices which it would be necessary to name, combined with the present determination o f buyers o f most lines o f merchandise to purchase only for early delivery, would militate against a successful opening. Much surprise has been expressed, therefore, at the success attained by those manufacturers who have held openings. It is now reported that certain others, whose lines are not officially open, are quietly booking some orders. Business in spring underwear continues to be ex tremely spotty. Those manufacturers o f men’s under wear who are willing to sell at or near the prices o f two or three months ago have been able to obtain a fair volume o f business and are in many cases sold up for the season. But those who have raised their prices to any considerable extent meet with serious resistance to these quotations and in most instances report that new business is small. W om en’s underwear for spring is selling poorly, and manufacturers o f this line are con fronted not only with the problem o f price but with the strong competition o f silk underwear. The volume o f knit underwear to be used during the coming season is a question o f much debate and concern throughout the trade. A ccording to statistics collected by the Department o f Commerce, the value o f knit underwear produced in the United States in 1914 was $93,119,085, in 1919 was $203,530,283 and in 1921 was $134,864,534. Price variations were largely, though not entirely, responsible for the large difference in these totals. The following table shows the average prices o f cotton underwear from January 1, 1922, to March 31, 1923. Production during the past month has on the whole changed but little, although more mills report that they are running at full capacity than was the case a month R January e v i e w UNDERWEAR PRICES* Average wholesale price, New York, per dozen garments JanuaryMarch, 1922 AprilJune, 1922 JulySeptember, 1922 OctoberDecember, 1922 JanuaryMarch, 1923 $7.50 $7.50 $7 50 $7.50 $7.11 Women’s union suits, combed yarn.............. $11.50 $11.50 $11.50 $12.00 $12.17 Cotton Underwear Men’s shirts and drawers........ ♦Figures compiled by the Department of Commerce. ago. Stocks o f finished underwear in the mills are reported as light, and many mills are working on orders only. The supply o f labor is sufficient, except in two establishments which report a local scarcity; but in no instance has there been a change in wages. Collections are as a whole satisfactory; only one mill reports that drey are poor, the balance stating that they are either fair or good. In the accompanying table the reports o f firms in the Third Federal Reserve District are summarized. UNDERWEAR INDUSTRY Third Federal Reserve District In terms of dozens Summer underwear: Number of reporting firms— 11 Product manufactured during month Finished product on hand at end of month............................................. Orders booked during month........... Cancellations received during month Shipments during month................. Unfilled orders on hand at end of month............................................. Nov., 1923 Nov., 1923 compared with compared with Oct., 1923 Nov., 1922 - 5.9% +46.9% + 9 .9 “ + 5.2 “ -5 2 .1 “ -2 7 .2 “ + 2.2 -3 1 .4 +66.3 - 7.1 + 9.4 “ + 3 1 .5 “ Winter underwear: Number of reporting firms—8 Product manufactured during month -1 9 .1 % Finished product on hand at end of month............................................. +25.4 “ Orders booked during month........... -1 8 .5 “ Cancellations received during month + 160.6 “ Shipments during month................. -2 0 .3 “ Unfilled orders on hand at end of month............................................. -4 1 .1 “ “ “ “ “ +28.9% +74.1 -8 4 .8 +215.1 + 18.9 “ “ “ “ - -6 1 .1 “ FLOOR COVERINGS Sales o f carpets and rugs have decreased consider ably, as is not unusual at this season o f the year. Many retailers use a considerable part o f their floor cov ering departments for the display o f toys and other Christmas goods and therefore do not wish to take in new lots of carpets and rugs. Hence, numerous re quests have been coming to the mills to hold shipments back until after January 1. Manufacturers have in ! 924 T hird F ederal R some instances curtailed production because they either lack the facilities, or are not willing, to accumulate stocks in anticipation o f the wants o f the buyer. On the other hand, sales o f carpets and rugs by retail establishments during the autumn were large, and it is the general opinion that stocks in retail stores are now at a low point. This is especially true o f the cheaper grades of Axminsters and of velvets and tapestries, which grades have been the best sellers during recent months. Sales o f wool fibre and o f grass rugs for spring delivery have been in fair volume, and wool fibre looms are reported as being more active than they were a year ago. The demand for linoleums and felt-base goods con tinues to be heavy, and the year 1923 has witnessed the largest distribution ever recorded in these lines. The export demand for felt-base goods, however, which was large during the early autumn, has decreased in the past month. Prices o f all floor coverings are unchanged, but the quotations for raw materials entering into the manu facture o f carpets and rugs are higher, cotton greatly so, and wool slightly. Labor is in plentiful supply, and no changes in wages are reported. Collections are in general good, but some reports state that a number o f firms have ceased to discount their bills and are allowing them to run to maturity. LEATHER Packers have continued to sell hides actively and are now closely sold up. The market is stronger than it jw. , was a month ago, the decline has e8, been arrested, and in some cases an 8 tns prices are fractionally higher. It must also be noted that the hides now being offered are o f poorer season than were those sold during November. Not only have domestic tanners bought fair quantities, but purchases o f considerable size have been made for shipment to continental Europe. I f hide prices in this country had not been at least as low as those in Argen tine and India, these sales could not have been made. The small packer and country hide markets have acted m sympathy with the large packer market and are steady at the present range o f prices. Calf skins, too, have been in fair demand, light-weight skins especially finding a ready sale at unchanged prices. Goat skins have continued to fall in price, and dealers have accepted offers which a month ago they would not have considered. The accompanying table shows that stocks o f raw hides and skins declined during October and were lower than they have been for sev eral months. A s compared with those on hand on October 31, 1922, stocks o f goat and kid skins are heavier, but those o f the others are lower, especially calf and kip. Since October 31 a curtailment in the wetting o f hides has occurred, but it is estimated that even at the eserve D istrict 23 STOCKS OF RAW HIDES AND SKINS* Date Calf and kip Goat and kid Sheep and Lamb Cattle Oct. 31, 1 9 2 2 ............ 5,838,412 June 30, 1 9 2 3 ........... 6,0 86,1 20 July 31, 1 9 2 3 ............ 5,9 31,2 88 August 31, 1 9 2 3 ___ 5.6 34.8 64 Sept. 30, 1 9 2 3 .......... 5,486,802 Oct. 31, 1 9 2 3 ............ 5.2 77.8 65 4,5 52,0 09 4,3 60,2 39 4,2 60,4 03 3,9 72,0 86 3,4 29,1 72 3,1 18,8 45 8 ,6 80,9 67 10,186,623 11,571,482 11,796,882 10,999,361 10,889,491 9.5 6 1 ,3 6 4 9.9 1 5 ,6 8 0 9 ’ 57 3,48 9 9 ,0 76,5 15 9,2 02,8 31 8,898,601 ♦Figures compiled by the Department of Commerce. present rate o f production the output is more than sufficient to take care o f the hides o f the domestic slaughter o f cattle, together with a reduced number o f foreign hides. December is usually a dull month in the leather mar kets, for practically all buyers take the annual inventory at the end o f the year, and only Leather the conviction th.it purchases can be made more advantageously now than after the first o f the year will tempt them to add to the stock account. This year has been no excep tion to the rule, and December has added another poor month to those which immediately preceded it. In the heavy leather markets, however, signs o f re newed confidence are appearing, and some buyers are reported to have taken advantage o f the low prices at which they could purchase and to have bought some fair-sized lots. Belting butts have been dull. The de creased demand for belting has resulted in only small purchases o f butts, and considerably lower prices are said to have been made to actual buyers. Belt makers in their turn have reduced prices at least 10 per cent. Some manufacturers report a fair demand for belting for delivery in the first half o f 1924 at the lower prices SOLE LEATHER CENTS MILLIONS PER or POUND 40 1921 1922 1923 The average price of sole leather, N o. 1 scoured oak backs, in November, 1923, was 42 cents per pound. This figure is the lowest for the three years depicted in the chart, and is more than 5 per cent below the average price for the year 1913. Source— Dun's Review and Bureau of the Census T 24 he B usiness R January eview now ruling, but others state that orders are small and are for prompt shipment. Harness leathers are dull, and on them also the trend o f prices is lower. The selling o f surplus stocks by the United States Government at less than manufacturing cost continues to affect this branch o f the trade adversely. The chart on page 23 shows that stocks o f sole leather have been steadily increasing since early in 1923 notwithstanding the attempted curtailment in production. Prices have been declining for some months. The following table indicates that, owing to the re duced output, production o f belting butts during O cto ber about kept pace with consumption. In backs, bends and sides, and offal, which, to the surprise o f the trade, showed an increase in production, consumption increased also, but not sufficiently to prevent a gain in the stocks o f backs, bends and sides. During October, as is shown in the accompanying table, production o f upper leathers varied considerably. The output o f cattle side leather fell sharply, but stocks increased somewhat none the less. Production o f calf, kid, and cabretta leathers increased, but the changes in stocks were slight. HEAVY LEATHER* A t the present time retailers are buying but little. The fall season was late in starting, and although conditions are improving, stocks are fairly Shoes large, and dealers may not require many new shoes before the spring season begins. Therefore they are holding back as long as possible, in order to secure the latest styles. This makes it impossible for the factories producing women’s shoes to operate except on a reduced schedule. W hole salers are buying cautiously for their early spring needs, but most of these purchases have been confined to fairly staple lines. Manufacturers o f children’s shoes have contracted for a considerable part o f their output for February and March delivery, and some orders for April shipment have been taken; but even in children’s shoes the element o f style is entering largely, and manu facturers hesitate to cut orders for distant delivery be cause o f the fear o f cancellation o f the contract on ac count o f a change in style. A n increased number o f complaints that collections are poor and have become slower have been received, but a majority o f the manufacturers state that collec tions are either fair or good. Production o f shoes in the United States during October was 30,555,284 pairs, according to figures is sued by the Department o f Commerce. This total is almost the same as that for October, 1922, which was 30,365,148 pairs. The table on page 25 summarizes the activities o f the reporting firms in the Third Federal Reserve Dis trict during November. Sales o f shoes at wholesale were poor during Novem ber and have shown but little improvement this month. Retailers’ stocks appear to be sufficient for their present needs, and fill-in orders are not as large as usual. From the table on page 11 it will be seen that sales in Novem ber were smaller by 24.9 per cent than those in October, and by 15.1 per cent than those o f November, 1922. The cooler weather o f this month has increased the October, 1923, as compared with September, 1923 Production during month Backs, bends and sides..................... Belting butts..................................... Offal, sole and belting...................... + 7.1 -1 0 .6 + 9.0 % Stock at end of month % + 1.4 _ 2 - .2 ♦Figures compiled by Department of Commerce. In leather goods the demand for fitted cases and for fancy articles for the holiday trade has been good, and in some cases manufacturers have had difficulty in filling their orders, even though their plants have been work ing at capacity. Bags, however, have been in only fair request, and the call for trunks has decreased. The number o f orders for trunks is large, but the individual order is generally small in size. Prices for leather goods and trunks show but little change during the past season. The trend o f quotations for raw materials varies; cot ton goods are higher, but leather, lumber, and hardware have declined. Trading in upper leathers has been limited in quantity. Manufacturers o f kid leather are further curtailing production, as sales, which are usually at their highest point during the autumn, have proved disappointing. Stocks have not decreased despite the fact that the quantity o f kid leather tanned during the second half o f the year was considerably smaller than that made during the first six months o f 1923. Sales o f kid in the low grades continue to equal the production, but in the medium grades and in the larger skins in the higher grades stocks are fairly heavy. In calf leather, a demand for suede is noted, but it is far smaller than it was in the autumn. Grain calf in both black and brown is in fair request. The demand is all for prompt delivery, as shoe manufacturers are buying upper leathers only for their immediate needs, since, owing to the many and rapid changes in style, they do not know what color or kind o f leather to buy. UPPER LEATHERS* October, 1923, as compared with September, 1923 Production during month Cattle side......................................... Calf and kip...................................... Goat and k id ..................................... } Cabretta............................................ % -1 9 .8 + 2.0 +13.6** Stock at end of month + + - % 1.5 .1 1.0 .9 ♦Figures compiled by the Department of Commerce. ♦♦Production figures not separated. 1924. T hird F ederal R BOOT AND SHOE INDUSTRY Third Federal Reserve District Number of reporting firms— 31 In terms of pairs • product manufactured during month.. Shipments during month................... Orders booked during month............... Urders on hand at end of month......... Cancellations received during m onth.. stocks (unsold) on hand at end of month.................... Nov., 1923 Nov., 1923 compared with compared with Oct., 1923 Nov., 1922 -1 2 .4 % + 4.2 “ - 5 .8 “ + 19.2 “ -3 9 .6 “ -1 1 .5 % +84.1 « -5 1 .8 “ -1 9 .0 “ -2 7 .4 “ + 11.1 “ +48.5 “ sales o f shoes at retail, but stocks are fairly large, and the season is now so late that it will be difficult to make up any ground that has been lost. The accompanying table shows that sales by reporting firms were almost exactly the same in November as in October, but were 8 per cent larger than in November, 1922. Stocks are lower than they were a month ago but larger than they were a year ago; and the rate o f turnover is con siderably lower than it was during 1922. RETAIL SHOE TRADE In terms of dollars t- NET SALES : (a) November, 1923, as compared with October, 1923 + .01% (b) November, 1923, as compared with November, 1922.........................................................................+8.0 “ (c) July 1 to November 30, 1923, as compared with July 1 to November 30, 1922............................... +5.8 2. STOCKS (selling price): (a) November, 1923, as compared with October, 1923 —2.7 “ (b) November, 1923, as compared with November, 1922................................................• ........................+4.6 “ 3* RATE OF TURNOVER (times per year based on cumulative period): (a) July 1 to November 30, 1923................................... 2.7 (b) July 1 to November 30, 1922................................... 3.2 v1 umber of stores reporting above items: 1.........................19 2 ....................... 17 3 ....................... 16 PAPER The demand for most grades o f paper is not as good as it was last month nor as heavy as in December, 1922, and the majority o f manufacturers declare it to be unsatisfactory. v The approach o f the annual inventory Period always causes a falling off in orders, but this year, owing to the uncertainty o f prices, buyers lack confidence and are buying for immediate needs only. Manufacturers o f wrapping and kraft papers report that heavy imports and large increases in domestic capacity this fall have made serious cuts in their busi e s , and few are operating at more than 70 per cent. Makers o f tags and tag stocks find that their products are in only fair request, and are operating at about 60 eserve D istrict 25 per cent. Producers of book paper also report only a fair demand, and their mills are running at about 70 per cent. The call for bond and writing papers is not as good as it was last month, and consequently produc tion at fine paper mills has declined to about 75 per cent o f capacity. Manufacturers o f fine tissues report a good demand; but the call for toilet tissues and crepe towels is poor. W all papers are in request, and most factories have at least 60 days’ business on hand and are working at capacity. The demand for envelopes continues to be fairly good, and the average o f opera tions is about 85 per cent. B ox boards, particularly news and chip, are in slightly better request than they were a month ago, but sales in tons are smaller than they were in December, 1922. Except for wall papers, practically all orders are for immediate shipment. Job bers report that their sales show a decline from those o f October and November, but the majority state that sales compare favorably with those of December, 1922. Their coarse paper departments, however, are not as active as they were a year ago. Paper prices are still weak, and though on the whole they have changed but little since last month, conces sions are readily obtained by large buyers. A t the close o f last month several manufacturers reduced their prices on sulphite bonds by about 10 per cent, but ragcontent bonds are holding firm. Boxboard prices have remained stationary at the lower levels established at the close o f November. Chemical and mechanical pulp prices show only slight changes from those o f a month ago and are firm. Finished stocks at the mills vary from moderate to light, and in general are decreasing. Stocks o f raw materials are moderate and are also decreasing. The supply o f skilled labor is adequate, and unskilled labor is plentiful. W ages are unchanged. Collections range from fair to good and are much the same as they were in November, but slower than in December, 1922. PRINTING AND PUBLISHING The majority o f commercial printers report that the demand for printing is only fair and not quite as good as it was in October or November. In December, 1922, it was greater than it has been this month, and nearly all printers were busier than they are now. The amount o f new catalogue and general advertising orders placed this month is less than that o f either o f the two pre ceding months, and the volume o f general job work has not been large. A few job printers find business very good and are working overtime, but the average o f plant operations in this district is only about 70 per cent. Magazine publishers report that their sales o f advertising space during the month, for their January issues, show a decided increase over those o f a year ago. The automobile and allied industries are the heaviest purchasers, but other industries, too, are taking good amounts. Subscription sales also show an increase 26 T he B usiness over those o f a year ago, and publishers o f agricultural journals state that farmers are subscribing readily ex cept in the northern sections o f the great wheat belt. Book publishers have enjoyed an excellent holiday busi ness and have still sufficient orders on hand to assure a large output. Lithographers state that manufacturers o f foodstuffs, toilet preparations, and rubber products are purchasing window display advertising in big quan tities. The 1924 calendar demand has been large, and lithographers are operating at capacity. Printing and publishing costs have changed but little during the past three months. Some grades o f paper have declined slightly, but inks and other materials have held firm. Competition is still very keen, and commer cial printers are forced to quote their lowest prices to obtain orders. The supply o f labor, both skilled and unskilled, is ade quate, and wages remain unchanged. Collections vary from fair to good. TOBACCO Leaf dealers report that the demand for the various grades o f cigar tobaccos is only fair and that manu facturers are buying cautiously Tobacco leaf because o f the approach of the inventory period. H owever, sales compare favorably with those o f December, 1922, and are satisfactory for this time o f year. The Lancaster tobacco market has been fairly active, and sales o f moderate size have been made. Prices are very firm. The 1922 Pennsylvania wrappers are sell ing at from 28 to 32 cents per pound, actual weight, and fillers at from 10 to 14 cents. Packers have been buying the new 1923 Pennsylvania tobacco in consider able quantities during the month, and they estimate that the growers have sold 25 to 30 per cent o f the new crop. Wrappers in the bundle are selling at from 18 to 23 cents per pound and fillers at from 5 to 6 cents. The quality o f the 1923 crop is much superior to that o f the crops o f 1922 and 1921 and better than the average. The leaf is large, is o f good burning quality, and has cured very well. Leaf spots and discolorations are more prevalent than they were last year, but the quality has not been greatly affected by these. In W isconsin the Co-operative Tobacco Pool has an nounced its prices for the 1923 crop, and several million pounds have been sold to Eastern buyers. The prices o f W isconsin tobacco are slightly higher than last year’s, because o f heavy injury to the crop by early frosts. The Connecticut shadegrown and broadleaf market is fairly active, many buyers having inspected the new crop at H artford and purchased moderate quantities. The quality o f this crop is very good, and the prices announced by the pool are the same as or slightly above those o f 1922. The new crops o f Ohio, Georgia, and Florida cigar tobaccos are in good demand, and the quality o f these R eview January is said to be the finest ever grown. Withdrawals o f Sumatra, Java, and Havana tobacco from the warehouses have been fairly heavy during the month. Despite the fact that manufacturers have received numerous rush orders for Christmas delivery, the de mand for cigars is not as heavy, Cigars in general, as it was in November. But the majority state that busi ness is better than it was in December, 1922. A few large manufacturers o f Class C and Class D cigars are oversold, and because o f their inability to supply goods in time for Christmas have been obliged to reject many orders. However, most o f the producers have been able to meet the demand and could actually supply greater needs were they operating at capacity. The majority o f those manufacturers who were heavily over sold last December, have greatly increased their manu facturing capacity during this year and can now fill orders more readily than they could a year ago. The average o f operations in this district is lower than it was in November, the large manufacturers operating at about 80 per cent and the smaller at about 65 per cent. Cigar jobbers report that the demand is greater than it was last month and slightly better than in December, 1922. The following chart shows that domestic production o f cigars for the first ten months o f this year exceeded that for the same period o f 1921 and 1922, but was less than for the first ten months o f 1920. Cigarette production for the first ten months o f 1923 was the heaviest on record ; in fact, cigarette production has steadily increased annually. Our imports o f cigars for the first ten months o f this year were large, and exceeded those o f the same period o f 1922 and 1921, This chart shows data for the first ten m onths o f each year only. Im ports of cigars and exports o f cigarettes in 1923 exceeded those of 1922 and 1921, but were less than 1920. Especially noticeable is the steady increase in the p rod u ction o f cigarettes during the past fou r years. Source—Department of Commerce and Commissioner of Internal Revenue T 1924 hird F ederal R eserve D istrict 27 CROP PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES* 1923 Corn.............................. AH wheat...................... Oats............................... Bariev. . R y e . ........ Buckwheat................... Rice............................... Flaxseed ....................... Potatoes, white............ Sweet potatoes............. All hay.......................... Cotton........................... Cottonseed................... Tobacco........................ Cloverseed.................... Sugar beets................... Maple sugar and syrup Sorghum syrup............. Peanuts......................... Beans............................ Crain sorghum............. Broomcorn.................... Onions........................... Hops.............................. Apples, total................. Apples, commercial Peaches......................... Pears............................. Oranges......................... 3,054,395,000 bus. 785,741,000 “ 1,299,823,000 “ 198,185,000 “ 63,023,000 “ 13,920,000 “ 33,256,000 “ 17,429,000 “ 412,392,000 “ 97,177,000 “ 106,626,000 tons 10,081,000 bales 4,476,000 tons 1,474,786,000 lbs. 1,233,000 bus. 6,893,000 tons 33,533,000 lbs. 32,001,000 gals. 636,462,000 lbs. 15,740,000 bus. 105,619,000 “ 69,300 tons 16,318.000 bus. 17,770,000 lbs. 196,770,000 bus. 34,403,000 bbls. 45,702,000 bus. 17,390,000 “ 34,800,000 boxes 1922 2,906,020,000 bus. 867,598,000 “ 1,215,803,000 “ 182,068,000 “ 103,362.000 “ 14,564,000 “ 41,405,000 “ 10,375,000 “ 453,396.000 “ 109,394,000 “ 112,013,000 tons 9,761,817 bales 4,336.000 tons 1,246,837,000 lbs. 1,887,000 bus. 5,183,000 tons 34,263,000 lbs. 36,440,000 gals. 633,114,000 lbs. 12,734,000 bus. 90,524,000 “ 37,300 tons 18,763,000 bus. 27,744,000 lbs. 202,702.000 bus. 31,945,000 bbls. 55,852,000 bus. 20,705,000 “ 30,200,000 boxes 1921 3,068,569,000 bus. 814,905,000 “ 1.078.341.000 “ 154,946,000 “ 61.675,000 “ 14,207,000 “ 37,612,000 “ 8,029,000 “ 361,659,000 “ 98,654,000 97,770,000 tons 7,953.641 bales 3,531,000 tons 1,069,693,000 lbs. 1,538,000 bus. 45,566,000 gals. 829,307.000 lbs. 9,150,000 bus. 113,990,000 “ 38,200 tons 29,340,000 lbs. 99,002,000 bus. 21,557,000 bbls. 32,602,000 bus. 11,297,000 “ 20,300,000 boxes *Department of Agriculture but were smaller than those o f 1920. Cigarette exports have been enormous and exceed those o f the first ten months o f 1921 and 1922; but they are considerably less than they were in the same period o f 1920. Cigar prices are firm and unchanged. Some grades ° f tobacco leaf, particularly Havana and Porto Rican, are slightly higher than they were a month a g o ; but prices o f other grades show little change. All grades o f C 1gar tobaccos, however, are higher than they were a year ago. Finished stocks at most factories are light and the supplies o f raw materials moderate. The supply ° f all kinds o f labor is adequate, and wages remain unchanged. Collections range from fair to good and show little variation since November. AGRICULTURE Mild weather and ample rainfall during the month have helped the winter wheat and cover crops. Much ' ' heat was planted very late, and had the weather been ess moderate, a considerable portion o f the crop would have been destroyed or injured. The stand of wheat ls n°w very good, not only in this district but over the entire country, and the crop is well enough devel°Ped to withstand a very severe winter. Cover crops, 0°, are in excellent condition, and many farmers are a lowing their dairy herds to graze lightly over the eMs. Corn husking was completed before the middle o f the month, and as excellent weather dried the crop well, it has been stored in good condition. The United States Department o f Agriculture on December 17 published its estimate o f crop yields and crop values for the year of 1923. The production of corn, barley, flaxseed, tobacco, cotton, cottonseed, sugar beets, beans, peanuts, oranges, and apples (fo r com mercial use) was greater than in 1922; but the output o f wheat, rye, buckwheat, rice, white potatoes, sweet potatoes, hay, cloverseed, onions, hops, apples (total), peaches, and pears fell off. The total farm value o f all crops on December 1 was estimated at $8,322,695.000, an increase o f nearly nine hundred million dollars over that o f the 1922 crops, which was $7,449.804.000. The value o f the 1921 crops was esti mated at $5,629,548,000, or $2,700,000,000 less than that o f the 1923 crops. The table above gives the production o f crops in the United States for the last three years, as estimated by the Department o f A gri culture. The following chart illustrates the fact that the prices o f all farm products, taken as a whole, are higher than they were a year ago and considerably above those of December, 1921. O f the important groups o f agri cultural products, livestock prices show no increase over those o f last December and are actually lower than they were in 1913, and fruit prices are low'er than in 1922. The livestock index is weighted according to a five-year average o f consumption o f beef and veal. 28 T he B usiness R January eview ACREAGE SOWN TO WINTER WHEAT P R ELIM IN A R Y M inions United States ACRES ES TIM ATES ITHOUSMtO? OF ACRES Pennsylvania, N Jersey*. D w re ew ela a 2 ,5 0 0 Average 1921 1922 1923 1914-23 Source — Interstate Milk fProducers' Association, Bureau o f Labor Statistics, and Department of Agriculture mutton and lamb, and pork, and is based on the farm price o f beef cattle, sheep and hogs. The present low price o f hogs is the chief cause o f the low index for livestock. The grain index, which is weighted accord ing to the ten-year average production o f corn, oats, and wheat, shows, that grain prices as a whole are much higher than they were a year ago. In fact, the spread between grain prices and livestock prices is unduly large, and during the next year we may expect these to be more nearly commensurate. The index o f fruits is based on the mean annual price o f apples, peaches, and pears, and is weighted according to the Average 1921 1922 1923 1914-23 The'area sown to winter wheat this fall in both the United States and in this district was smaller than that of 1922 and 1921 and less than the ten-year average. Source— Department of Agriculture five-year average o f production. O f all the groups, the dairy industry is most prosperous, the price o f milk being about 180 per cent o f the 1913 price. The preliminary estimate by the Department of A gri culture o f the acreage sown to winter wheat in the United States this fall shows a decrease o f 13 per cent from last fall’ s plantings, as compared with a 7 per cent decrease in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Dela ware. A s illustrated in the preceding chart, the acreage sown in the entire country is 5 per cent less than the average for the last ten years, and that sown in Penn sylvania, Delaware, and New Jersey is 15 per cent less. COM PILED AS OF DECEM BER 22, 1923 This business review will be sent regularly without charge to any address upon request
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