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THE BUSINESS REVIEW FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA Pas* ash-, *2 r-.v JANUARY 1, 1941 'Ml\] 4 ‘ •_J Industrial and trade activity in the Third Federal Reserve District has expanded further from the high levels reached in the early fall, and additional ad vances in basic lines are in prospect during the com ing months. Factory payrolls have increased steadily since last spring and by the end of the year were at the highest level in a decade. Retail de mand for goods has been active and well diversified. Over a billion dollars in government orders for de fense materials has been placed in this district since June in addition to a large volume placed earlier. Substantial new orders are being received by fac tories, backlogs are still unusually large, and inven tories generally have not been excessively accumu lated, so that with the acceleration of defense production operating rates and plant capacities are expected to increase further. From October to November manufacturing activ ity and the production of crude oil declined less than seasonally, and the output of coal expanded more than was to be expected. The principal gains in manufacturing lines were again reported by pro ducers of heavy goods. Industrial production in November was somewhat above the high levels pre vailing a year earlier, and during the first eleven months substantially exceeded the corresponding period of 1939. Construction activity increased further from Oc tober to November and for the year as a whole reached the highest levels in a decade. Particularly sharp gains have occurred in the erection and reno vation of industrial and commercial structures. De mand for houses has been increasing. General employment in Pennsylvania increased slightly further in November, and wage disburse ments continued at the high levels reached the month before. Wage payments were reduced some sot; what in some mining operations and in certain serv ice industries, but these declines were offset by in creases at anthracite mines and in factories and distributive establishments. Preliminary reports indicate further gains in factory employment and payrolls in December. Retail trade sales expanded more than usual in November, and Christmas buying reached the larg est volume in the past ten years. Sales at wholesale have declined somewhat, as is to be expected at this season, but the volume of reorders has been substan tial and some advance buying is appearing. Freight shipments have been unusually well maintained and inventories in distributive channels are moderate. Prices of basic industrial and agricultural com modities increased somewhat from October to No vember and have since been fairly steady at levels above those prevailing before the war in August 1939. Wholesale prices generally have been firm. Manufacturing. Manufacturing activity in this district during November continued at the high levels established in the previous month. After al lowing for seasonal variation, the output of facto ries has expanded steadily since early last spring, the principal gains being in heavy goods industries. Employment and income are still increasing, a large volume of new orders is being received, backlogs are heavy, inventories moderate, and prices firm. The prospects are for further increases in activity during the coming year, as consumer demand is im proving and industries in this area are increasingly active on the National Defense Program. Demand for products manufactured in this dis trict has been expanding, except in the case of some textiles and building materials, where seasonal de clines were in evidence. Factory sales in virtually Page One INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS PRODUCTION AND PRICES PENNSYLVANIA 12 BRANCHES OF TRADE AND INDUSTRY PERCENT 19 32 AVC. =100 200 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION ^ (pHILA. FED- RES DIST.) PAYROLL S i 160 A' / V'v. • 1 t 1 1 1 **» * i t 140 _ PRICES OF 120 _ . Vw » RAW MATERIALS , A' V. f* r / Jt / ** r* i i V\ / S * , i (other than farm products AND FOODS) I 1 < 180 COMMODITY PRICES US. v' vj »7 EMPL OYMENT 100 Ka yy 80 1934 1935 1936 1937 938 1939 1940 rce for Prices - U5. Buredu of Labor Statistics all lines are well above a year ago. The volume of unfilled orders at reporting factories declined some what in the month except at plants manufacturing steel and leather products but was substantially above a year ago in nearly all lines. Prices of manufactured goods generally advanced from the middle of November to the middle of De cember to levels above a year ago. Costs of basic materials have shown little change in recent weeks but are still considerably higher than before the war. Inventories of finished goods at reporting facto ries were reduced in the month in all lines and in most cases were somewhat below last year. Manu facturers, however, are maintaining larger supplies of raw materials to meet the requirements of in creased operating rates. Factory operations to the middle of December were generally increased further. Seasonal de clines were in evidence only at plants producing tex tiles and building materials. In virtually all lines output has been above a year ago. Expanded pro duction and prospects for continued strong market conditions have encouraged an increasing amount of expansion of plants and equipment. Factory employment and payrolls in Pennsyl vania again increased slightly in November, con tinuing the steady advance which has been in evidence since April and May. Approximately 110,000 workers have been added to the rolls in Pennsylvania factories and wage income has ex panded by more than $4,500,000 a week since last spring. Early reports indicate that further ad vances occurred in December. For the year as a whole total wage disbursements at Pennsylvania factories showed a gain of about 15 per cent over 1939, reflecting substantial expansion in activity in capital goods lines, particularly metal Page Two 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 products and transportation equipment. Operations at establishments turning out lighter products ag gregated about the same as a year before. From October to November the principal im provement in specific industries occurred in the case of iron and steel, nonferrous metal products, build ing materials, furniture, and a few textile lines. In such consumers’ lines as clothing and shoes, wage disbursements declined substantially less than was to be expected. Hourly wages of factory workers in Pennsylvania expanded fractionally to nearly 73 cents, the high est level in the past seventeen years. Average hours per week declined slightly, so that weekly in come was reduced from a record average of $28.28 in October to $28.17 in November. Factory employment and payrolls in southern New Jersey declined 4 and 2 per cent respectively in November but continued well above a year ear lier. At Delaware factories employment declined 5 per cent in the month and payrolls 3 per cent. The output of factory products in this district de clined 2 per cent less than usual in November and was larger than a year earlier when activity was ap proaching a peak. The principal improvement in the month in dura ble lines was in the output of locomotives and cars, automobile bodies and parts, cement, and iron and steel products. In the case of consumers’ goods, the largest gains were in the output of foods, woolens, and leather. Compared with a year ago, iron and steel and transportation equipment showed large in creases, while all textile lines operated at lower rates. The output of electric power increased seasonally from October to November, and total sales and sales to industry expanded more than usual. ACTIVITY IN THE STEEL INDUSTRY TEXTILE ACTIVITY EMPLOYEE-HOURS PERCENT PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT EMPLOYEE-HOURS IN PENNSYLVANIA FACTORIES PER CENT FOUNDRIES STEEL WORKS AND .ROLLING MILLS WOOLENS AND WORSTEDS "MACHINERY AND PARTS TEXTILES 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 Coal and other fuels. The domestic demand for fuels is well sustained, reflecting increasing indus trial requirements for bituminous coal and coke and a fairly steady demand for anthracite. Prices of fuels are generally firm and above a year ago. Production of anthracite increased in November, contrary to seasonal expectations, and expanded further during early December. Colliery output averaged 161,000 tons a day in November as against 157,000 in October and 166,000 a year ago. The volume of hard coal produced in the first eleven months of 1940 was about 5 per cent less than the unusually high levels prevailing a year ago. Sales of bituminous coal have expanded further since the middle of last month and approximate the volume of a year ago. Operations showed unusual expansion from October to November and produc tion was the largest since November 1939. The out put of soft coal thus far this year, aggregating 103, 000,000 tons, was 25 per cent above a year ago and the largest since 1937. By-product coke ovens continue unusually active, owing to the heavy requirements of the iron and steel industry. Output of gas and fuel oil in creased sharply from October to November to the highest point since March. During the first eleven months activity at by-product coke ovens and oil re fineries was substantially above 1939. Building. Construction activity in this district, as indicated by contract awards, increased more than seasonally from October to November and was above the levels prevailing late in 1939. The principal increases in operations have occurred in the case of residential and industrial building. The construc tion of public works and utilities declined further in the month, although activity in this field also was somewhat greater than a year earlier. 1938 1939 1940 The value of new contracts placed in November increased 28 per cent to $21,000,000 and was the largest for that month since 1929. Awards for resi dential and factory buildings expanded sharply and together constituted about 70 per cent of the total as against only 46 per cent in October. Contracts for other types of construction showed decreases ranging from 15 per cent for commercial buildings to 49 per cent in the case of unclassified structures. Compared with a year ago, substantial gains were reported in all lines except educational buildings, where the value of awards was sharply below the unusually high level of 1939. Building contracts Philadelphia Federal Reserve District November 1940 (000’s omitted) Residential...................................... Apts, and hotels............................. Per cent change From month ago From year ago 1940 from 11 mos. 1939 Family houses................ ............. Nonresidcntial............................... Commercial..................................... Factories........................................... Educational..................................... All other............................................ $10,464 4,748 5,716 7,161 1,336 4,256 277 1,292 + 81 + 318 + 23 + 15 - 15 + 161 - 46 - 49 + 54 + 98 + 30 + 89 + 18 + 341 - 78 + 180 - 2 + 8 - 5 + 42 + 24 + 177 Total buildings............................ Public works and utilities. . . $17,625 3,412 + 46 - 23 + 67 + 73 + 15 + 2 Grand total................................... $21,037 + 28 + 68 + 11 , - 4 Source: F. W. Dodge Corporation. The total of contracts placed in 1940 reached the largest volume in a decade. In the first eleven months, awards exceeded $200,000,000, and were 11 per cent larger than in the preceding year. Residential construction was somewhat smaller than in the unusually active 1939 period. Sales of small houses in the Philadelphia area have been substantial, and the renting demand for dwellings and manufacturing space has been in creasingly active since the early fall. In the case of houses and apartments renting for $35.00 a month or less, vacancies have declined to an unPage Three VALUE OF BUILDING CONTRACTS PER CENT RETAIL TRADE PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT rtRCLNI 1923 -25AVG.-I0.0 100 INDUSTRIAL >ALES Arv rL SO .J » l r ! —y * iV*» Mr RESIDENTIAL ^STOCKS 60 20 40 ADJUSTED 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 usually low level, reflecting in part the increasing need for dwellings to accommodate defense work ers in this area. Rentals for residences generally have shown a rising tendency in the past several months, with the largest increases reported in lowrent dwellings. Trade. Retail trade sales expanded sharply in the last two months of the year, and the Christmas buy ing season was the most active in a decade. Sus tained high levels of consumer incomes and pros pects for further advances in general business have resulted in a substantial increase in the volume of sales and a general preference for higher quality goods than has been the case for some time. Wholesale trade was reduced slightly in Novem ber as was to be expected at that season, but the volume of reorders continued large and some ad vance buying for January sales and spring promo tions was in evidence. Freight shipments have been well sustained. Activity in virtually all channels of distribution has been above a year ago, and no significant accumulation of inventories has been in evidence. Sales at retail increased 8 per cent more than usual in November and further improvement was shown in early reports for December. These gains followed smaller than seasonal expansion in Sep tember and October. The seasonally adjusted index of sales in November was somewhat above the peak reached a year earlier, and for the full year 1940 a gain of about 5 per cent over 1939 is indicated. The principal improvement in sales from Octo ber to November was at men’s apparel and shoe stores, although substantial increases were shown at department stores and establishments handling dura ble consumers’ goods. Inventories have generally been maintained at levels slightly higher than a Page Four 1934 OR SEASON* 1935 L VARIATIOnJ 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 month and a year earlier. Some forward buying has been in evidence but for the most part retailers continue cautious in their inventory policies. Sales by wholesale establishments in November were about 2 per cent smaller than a month before but were somewhat larger than in November 1939. In the first eleven months, sales averaged 5 per cent above the corresponding period a year ago. Sharp declines in the latest month were reported in sales of paper and footwear, but these were counterbal anced in part by increases in the case of jewelry, electrical supplies, and groceries. In 1940 as com pared with 1939 the principal improvement was in the case of hardware, jewelry, and electrical sup plies. Inventories at wholesale establishments were about the same in November as in October and only slightly above the levels a year ago. Shipments by rail freight were well sustained in November, when a decline was to be expected. In the first eleven months, total shipments averaged 15 per cent above the year before and indications were that the movement of freight in 1940 reached the largest volume in the past ten years. The principal gains from October to November were in shipments of coal and ore, and for the year to date the largest increases were in shipments of ore and coke, which were sharply stimulated by expanded operations in the steel industry. Loadings of less-than-carlot merchandise declined about seasonally in Novem ber and were somewhat lower than November 1939. In the first eleven months these shipments were in slightly greater volume than a year earlier. Sales of new passenger automobiles increased 15 per cent from October to November and were 27 per cent above a year ago. Income of nonresort hotels in this district in No vember was about the same as in October but was 12 per cent above November 1939. CURRENCY DEMAND COMMERCIAL LOANS REPORTING MEMBER BANKS MILLIONS PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PHILA. FED. RES. DISTRICT Changes from Jan. 1,1932 MILLIONS + 200 1940 + 150 + IOO + 50 1939 JAN FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT OCT NOV DEC Banking conditions. Active trade and industry have resulted in heavier demands upon the banks to finance current operations. Commercial loans at reporting banks have shown a further small advance to the highest point in recent years, and additional credit has been extended through the purchase of government securities and loans to brokers and dealers. Deposits have been at record levels, de spite the unusual demand for currency and pay ments to the Treasury for new National Defense securities. Member hank reserves were reduced in the four weeks ended December 18 to $679,000,000 from $700,000,000, but larger balances are being car ried with correspondents than was the case a month ago. Surplus funds continue large. In the first half of December the excess of reserves over require ments was 111 per cent at Philadelphia banks and 95 per cent at the country member banks. The principal influences upon reserve balances in the four latest weeks have been the seasonal demand for currency and the operations of the Treasury. Nearly $26,000,000 of currency was called into use as against $22,000,000 a year earlier, reflect ing more active trade and increased factory pay rolls. Government disbursements were materially greater than a year ago, owing to heavier expendi tures on national defense. Total payments by the Treasury in this district were about $16,000,000 less than receipts, which included the quarterly in stallment on the income tax and the cash payment of $20,000,000 on the $25,200,000 of National Defense notes allotted here. The decline in reserves resulting from these transactions was partly offset by $20,000,000 gained in the interdistrict settle ments. Over most of the period the'System continued to sell securities from its Open Market Account, so JAN. FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT OCT NOV DEC. that the participation of this bank declined by $4,100,000 to $183,000,000. Discounts for mem ber banks and industrial advances were virtually unchanged. Inquiries made of this bank by prime contractors and subcontractors indicate an increasing amount of bank financing of defense projects. The volume actually lent thus far, however, has been relatively small. A credit was opened by a group of Phila delphia banking institutions for the Cramp Ship building Company to supply funds for plant facil ities, but advances under this credit will enter the loan figures only as the work progresses. This also holds true of the credit opened by the Federal Re serve Bank of Philadelphia to supply working capital. Commercial loans of the reporting member banks increased $3,000,000 in the four weeks ended De cember 18 to $234,000,000. A new high for recent years was established and the amount now out standing exceeds the level of a year ago by 19 per cent and the peak of 1937 by about 7 per cent. Loans to brokers and dealers were also increased by $3,000,000, but declines wTere reported in other categories, so that total loans on December 18 were unchanged from a month earlier. Investments, on the other hand, were increased by $12,000,000, largely through the purchase of United States Gov ernment bonds. Total loans and investments reached $1,217,000, 000, a new high since 1931. Deposits also showed gains and are at record levels. An increase of $9,000,000 in aggregate balances at reporting banks to $1,828,000,000 was due to a considerable ex pansion in deposits of individuals and business con cerns, which was only partly offset by withdrawals from government deposits and from funds held for other banks. Page Five BUSINESS STATISTICS Production Employment and Income Philadelphia Federal Reserve District in Pennsylvania Adjusted for seasonal variation Not adjusted Industry, Trade and Service Per cent change Indexes: 1923-5=100 Nov. Oct. 1940 1940 93p 91 93p 91 loop 102 82p 83 HOp 104 72p 73 143 145 83p 80 100 103 47 50 139p 133 117p 104 85 87 r INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION MANUFACTURING................. Metal products........................... Textile products......................... Transportation equipment. . . Food products............................. Tobacco and products............. Building materials..................... Chemicals and products......... 1 weather and products.............. Paper and printing.................... Individual lines Pig iron.......................................... Steel................................................. Iron castings................................ Steel castings............................... Electrical apparatus................. Motor vehicles............................ Automobile parts and bodies. Locomotives and cars.............. Shipbuilding................................. Silk manufactures..................... Woolen and worsteds............... Cotton products......................... Carpets and rugs....................... 1 losiery.......................................... Underwear.................................... Cement.......................................... Brick............................................... Lumber and products.............. Nov. 1939 92 90 r 92 r 90 100 87 101 79 94 48 133 122 89 Nov. 1940 from 1940 from 11 Mo. Year mos. ago ago 1939 + 2 + 2 + 4 0 + 5 0 - 2 + 3 - 3 + 5 + 5 + 13 ~ 1 87 107 73p 130 121 29 122 46 623 77 61 48 92 85 136 78 56 30 85 80 + 3 102 102 + 0 71 57 + 4 127 144 + 2 115r 96 + 6 28 20 + 4 112 96 + 9 42 33 + 10 678 413 - 8 78r 92 - 1 56 66 r + 9 47 56 + 3 91 126* + 1 92 103 - 8 127 155 + 7 68 69 + 14 0 56 r 58 0 30 r 30 - 2* 97 - 3 100 103 71 106 112 + 51 67p 63 58 + 7 97 102 93 - 4 77 77 81 0 87 89 r 91 - 2 135 132 144 + 2 77 lOlp 100 + 30 153 160r 105 - 5 80 83 81 167p 153 170 + 9 147 146 + 4 152 62 58 64 r + 7 56 60 61 r + 7 81 78 87 r + 4 412 403 482 + 2 294 293 0 272 297 276 + 2 290 215 206 194 + 4 Slaughtering, meat packing. . Sugar refining.............................. < banning and preserving.......... Cigars............................................. Paper and wood pulp............... Printing and publishing.......... Shoes............................................... Leather, goat and kid.............. Explosives..................................... Paints and varnishes................ Petroleum products................... Coke, by-product....................... COAL MINING............................ Anthracite.................................... Bituminous................................... CRUDE on,.................................. ELEC. POWER—OUTPUT... Sales, total.................................... Sales to industries..................... BUILDING CONTRACTS TOTAL AWARDS!..................... Residential f................................. Nonresidentialf.......................... Public works and utilities!... 76 68 79 96 73 52 79 110 59 57 46 92 + 5 + 32 0 -13 + i + 2 + 15 - 9 +10 -17 + 42 + 4 + 6 + 4 + 4 - 4 - 4 Employment Nov. Oct. 1940 1940 + 7 95p 94p Nov. 1939 95 95 94 92 + 29 + 33 -13 + 39 + 8 + 5 + 8 + 9 - 9 + i 109p 107 75p 76 137 139 84p 86 118 125 49 50 139p 135 112p 110 86 88 r + 63 + 31 + 33 + 25 +37 + 3 + 20 +85 + 51 -14 - 9 - 5 -18 -16 - 7 99 91 97 80 112 47 134 116 90 + 9 + 5 +27 -10 +26 +43 +27 +40 +51 -16 - 7 -14 -27 -18 -12 + 13 - 3 0 + 2* + 3 - 5 + 15 + 5 - 5 - 4 - 7 0 +45 - 2 - 2 + 4 - 2 - 2 - 7 -15 + 3 + 8 + 11 88 103 75p 1 21 129 26 112 43 623 77 66 50 103 96 138 77 + 19 55 30 + 6 + 1* 91 + 3 111 -17 69 75p + 15 117 + 5 77 + 8 88 0 -11 127 97p - 6 + 39 153 + 4 84 167p + 28 146 64 - 1 - 5 61 + 25 90 - 2 399 + 3 306 + 9 305 + 10 220 84 102 75 120 125r 26 106 40 651 79 61 48 102 101 139 r 77 56 r 31r 93 108 59 84 125 78 90 r 142 80 162r 85 154 144 62 59 84 403 302 290 200 81 98 59 134 102 18 88 31 413 93 72 59 144 117 157 68 57 30 90 108 73 64 111 81 92 136 97 105 85 171 140 66 62 96 r 468 283 284 198 + 30 + 20 +70 + 4 + 6 - 5 + 31 - 1 75 60 76 116 * Unadjusted for seasonal variation. f 3-month moving daily average centered at 3rd month. Allentown........ Altoona............. Harrisburg.. . . Johnstown.... Lancaster......... Philadelphia... Reading............ Scranton........... Trenton............ Wilkes-Barre. . Wilmington . . . York.................. Employment Payrolls Building permits value Retail sales Oct. 1940 Nov. 1939 Oct. 1940 Nov. 1939 Oct. 1940 Nov. 1939 Oct. 1940 Nov. 1939 0 0 0 +3 +1 +2 -1 +1 +2 +2 +1 +2 -1 + 9 + 2 + 10 + 6 - 1 + 9 - 2 - 8 + i + 2 - 2 + 6 + 2 0 -2 -2 +i -2 +2 -2 +2 +2 0 -1 +1 +2 + 15 - 2 + 12 + 6 0 + 17 + 3 - 6 + 6 + 3 — 1 + 13 + 12 + 3 -21 -46 + 53 -60 -67 + 32 -37 -48 -72 —31 -28 -12 0 - 25 - 62 + 121 + a - 20 - 89 + 8 - 22 + 90 - 34 - 48 + 141 + 12 + 9 +23 - 1 + 13 + 14 + 13 + 6 + 17 + 9 + 5 + 3 + 19 + 4 + 12 + 8 + 7 — 5 -10 - 2 - 3 - 8 + 2 - 3 + 8 - 3 - 8 0 + 3 - 4 + 10 + 9 + 11 + 4 + 5 + 15 + 9 + 6 + -5 + 9 + 5 +27 + 12 * Area not restricted to the corporate limits of cities given here. + 13 - 1 +1 +i +2 +1 -3 -4 +i +i +3 +3 -2 -1 -2 + 3 + 3 - 1 - 4 + 9 + 2 + 4 + 6 + 3 + 4 - 2 + 8 + 11 180 237 64 222 82 218 163 114 134 130 124 133 128 0 + 10 - 3 -13 -14 + i 0 + 2 + 2 0 - 8 + 5 + 8 -10 - 9 + 5 - 5 + 3 + S + 3 + 5 + 4 + 5 + 9 Employment* Payrolls* Per cent Per cent Nov. change from Nov. change from 1940 1940 index Oct. Nov. index Oct. Nov. 1940 1939 1940 1939 Index: 1923-5 = 100 TOTAL........................................ Iron, steel and products.. . Nonferrous metal products. Transportation equipment. Textiles and clothing........... Textiles.................................... Clothing.................................. Food products........................ Stone, clay and glass............ 1 jumber products................... Chemicals and products. . . Leather and products.......... Paper and printing............... Printing................................... Others: Cigars and tobacco............. Rubber tires, goods............ Musical instruments.......... 95 93 138 71 93 87 114 110 87 66 98 86 100 91 +1 + 3 + 10 + 11 + 13 - 7 - 9 - 1 + i + 4 0 + 3 - 4 - 1 - 1 97 125 178 79 88 85 106 117 93 65 112 83 105 96 +1 +2 +4 +3 0 0 -1 -2 +2 +2 0 -2 0 0 +2 +1 0 -1 0 -6 -2 -1 +2 0 -4 0 0 + 8 + 13 + 14 + 18 - 5 - 6 + i + 4 + 5 + 3 + 4 0 - 1 0 68 84 70 +i 0 0 + 12 - 7 + 13 62 94 92 0 -4 -1 +10 - 3 + 29 * Figures from 2,445 plants. Hours and Wages Weekly working time* Hourly earnings* Aver Aver Ch’ge age Ch'ge age hours Weekly earnings! Aver Ch’ge age Debits Nov. 1939 + 10 + 2 + 15 121 148 67 107 59 114 137 102 118 123 102 105 105 Manufacturing Factory workers Averages November 1940 and per cent change from year ago Oct. 1940 Page FRASER Digitized for Six GENERAL INDEX............. Manufacturing....................... Anthracite mining................ Bituminous coal mining . . . Building and construction. Quar. and nonmet. mining. Crude petroleum prod......... Public utilities........................ Retail trade.............................. Wholesale trade..................... Hotels........................................ Laundries.................................. Dyeing and cleaning............ p—Preliminary, r—Revised. Local Business Conditions* Percentage change— N ovembcr 1940 from month and year ago Indexes: 1932 = 100 64 64 46 106 83 76 79 111 Payrolls Per cent Per cent Nov. change from Nov. change from 1940 1940 index Oct. Nov. index Oct. Nov. 1940 1939 1940 1939 TOTAL.............................. Iron, steel and prod.. . Nonferrous metal prod. Transportation equip.. Textiles and clothing. . Textiles.......................... Clothing......................... Food products............... Stone, clay and glass.. Lumber products......... Chemicals and prod.. . Leather and products , Paper and printing . . . Printing.......................... Others: Cigars and tobacco. . Rubber tires, goods. . Musical instruments. 38.9 39.9 39.4 41.1 35.5 36.1 33.0 40.4 37.5 40.0 38.3 34.1 38.4 35.7 + 1 $.729 .811 +2 0 .669 0 .801 -2 .532 -2 .541 -5 .494 -1 .594 .712 +i .591 +i +i .813 -4 .555 .722 -4 -2 .928 +3 $28.17 +2 32.30 +3 26.35 32.96 -1 18.83 +5 +4 19.60 +8 16.41 +3 24.62 0 26.54 +4 23.11 0 30.74 +1 19.05 +3 28.76 34.27 +2 38.2 35.1 47.e -1 0 +3 -1 +4 +9 * Figures from 2,209 plants. .444 .737 .715 16.93 25.89 34.06 t Figures from 2,445 plants. + + + + + + + + + + + + 4 4 3 1 2 3 2 1 1 5 i 2 i i - 1 + 4 + 12 Distribution and Prices Per cent change Wholesale trade Unadjusted for seasonal variation Nov. 1940 from Month Year ago ago Sales Total of all lines..................... Boots and shoes................... Dry goods............................... Electrical supplies............... Groceries................................. Hardware........................... Jewelry.................................... Paper........................................ Inventories Paper........................................ - 2 -15 + 2 - 3 + i -16 + i - 4 — 7 - 8 +n + 7 + 11 0 -18 0 3 5 3 3 1 4 1940 from 11 mos. 1939 + 1 - 7 + 14 — 1 + 13 + 5 - 4 - 2 + + + - + 5 + 2 - 1 + 17 0 + 14 +20 +ii Adjusted for seasonal variation Not adjusted Pert ent ch ange Nov. Oct. 1940 1940 Indexes: 1923-5 = 100 RETAIL TRADE Sales • Total of all stores.............. Department.......................................... Men s apparel........................ Women s apparel.............................................. Shoe....................................... Credit........................................................... Nov. Nov. 1940 1939 frc m 1940 from 11 Mo. Year mos. ago ago 1939 91p 82 88p 99 94 107 84 75 78 99 83 100 88 78 84 102 93 107 + 8 + 9 + 13 0 + 13 + 8 + + + + 2 5 5 3 i 0 80p 56* 108 79 55 107 r 79 + 1 + 2 0 + 1 + 3 o + 2 -j- i + 9 + 7 0 + 14 + 26 + 2 - 6 + 3 + 3 - 1 + 15 + 1 + 13 - 6 + 1 - 3 + 16 - 8 +43 + 3 + 48 + 8 + 8 -28 - 7 + 13 + 12 Nov. Oct. Nov. 1940 1940 1939 + 4 + 6 + 5 0 0 + 4 108 107 103 95 93 114 90 130 82 81 54 79 120 94 32 139 39 83 82 55 73 165 90 37 121 39 83 80 57 82 130 91 30 194 34 - 5 + 5 + 15* + 27* + 33* 100 144 90 125 95 113 — 11* + 4* + 6* 0* + 12* + 9* Inventories . Total of all stores................................... 106p 98 99 87 98p 87 111 112 92 93 131 125 146p 145 130 r + 3* 12* - 3* — 2* + 22 + 26 + 6 114 90 91 Source: U. S. Department of Commerce. Commodity prices Index: 1926 = 100 Basic commodities 7 industrial............... 7 agricultural........... Wholesale (813)* . . Raw materials......... Finished products.. h arm........................... Food............................ Other........................... Retail food* (1935-9 = 100). . . . Philadelphia............. Scranton.................... Per cent change from Nov. 1940 Month Year Aug. 1939 ago ago 91 54 80 73 83 68 72 84 +3 +2 +1 +2 +1 +3 +2 +1 0 +2 +1 0 +1 +1 0 0 + 12 + 8 + 5 96 94 97 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 + 3 + 1 + 5 + 29 +n + 6 + 9 * Source: U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. FREIGHT-CAR LOADINGS—TOTAL............. Merchandise and miscellaneous............................... Merchandise—1. c. 1.................................... Coal.............................................. 82 82 52 73 153 92 34 122 34 MISCELLANEOUS Life insurance sales.............................................. 83 81 56 75 167 89 31 170 30 94 Coke............................... Forest products..................... Grain and products......................... Livestock.................................................... 75 76 52 64 122 90 36 118 33 99 90 Hotels—(1934 = 100) Occupancy............................................................. Income, total.......................................... Business liquidations Amount of liabilities....................................... Check payments............................................................. * Computed from unadjusted data. 107 88 85 p—Preliminary r—Revised BANKING STATISTICS Reporting member banks (000,000’s omitted) Assets Commercial loans.................. Open market paper............... Loans to brokers, etc............ Other loans to carry secur. Loans on real estate.............. Loans to banks........................ Other loans............................... Total loans Government securities......... Obligations fully guar’teed Other securities....................... Total investments Total loans & investments Reserve with F. R. Bank .. Cash in vault........................... Balances with other banks . Other assets—net................... Liabilities Demand deposits, adjusted. Time deposits.......................... U. S. Government deposits. Interbank deposits................ Borrowings............................... Other liabilities....................... Capital account...................... Dec. 18, 1940 $ 234 34 24 33 50 Changes in— Four weeks $3 One year* + $37 103 1 1 + 9 3 - 1 1 + 2 0 0 0 + 12 0 4 $ 479 + $59 + + $16 8 5 $ 372 90 276 + +$10 0 2 + $12 + $13 Dec. 4 Dec. 11 Dec. 18 Changes in four weeks Sources of funds: Reserve bank credit extended in district.... Commercial transfers (chiefly interdistrict)......................... Treasury operations........................................................................ + 2.7 -11 .8 + 12.6 - 3.0 + 4.9 -10.4 -1.2 + 0.4 + 3.3 + 2.9 +26.4 -21.9 + 1.4 + 19.9 -16.4 Total................................................................................................ + 3.5 - 8.5 + 2.5 + 7.4 + 4.9 + + 8.4 2.0 3.0 0.1 + 5.0 -15.1 + 1.6 - 0.0 + 5.9 -4.1 +0.6 +0.1 + + + 6.4 0.2 0.4 0.8 +25.7 -21.4 - 0.4 + 1.0 + 3.5 - 8.5 + 2.5 + 7.4 + 4.9 Uses of funds: Currency demand............................................................................ Member bank reserve deposits................................................. “O ther deposits” at reserve bank............................................. Other Federal Reserve accounts................................................ + $ 738 Changes in weeks ended— Nov. 27 Philadelphia Federal Reserve District (Millions of dollars) $1217 504 27 234 78 $1065 259 41 463 ' ’ ie 216 + $12 - 17 + 4 12 + - 2 + $18 + 6 1 - - 4 + - 2 2 + $72 Total............................................................................. Member bank reserves (Daily averages: dollar figures in millions) Held Re quired Phila. banks: 1940: Nov. 1-15.. *484.7 $226.8 Nov. 16-30. . 500.0 230.7 Dec. 1-15.. 483.1 228.9 1939: Dec. 1-15. . 418.5 209.4 Country banks: 1940: Nov. 1-15.. Nov. 16-30. . Dec. 1-15. . 1939: Dec. 1-15.. 197.8 101 .2 195.6 101.6 200.3 102.7 167.1 97.6 Ex cess $257.9 269.3 254.2 209.1 96.6 94.0 97.6 69.5 Ratio of excess to re quired 114% 117 * 111 ” 100 ” 95 92 95 71 " * » ” Federal Reserve Bank of Phila. (Dollar figures in millions) Dec. 18, 1940 Four weeks One year Bills discounted......... Bills bought......... .. Industrial advances. U. 8. securities........... $ 0.5 0 2.1 183.0 + $0.0 0 0.0 — 4.1 — - $0.4 0 - 1.0 - 30.8 Total............................ Note circulation. . . . Member bk. deposits IJ. S. general account Foreign bk. deposits. Other deposits............ Total reserves............. Reserve ratio.............. $185.6 409.4 679.1 33.5 75.8 30.5 1064.3 86.6% * 4.1 + 17.8 21.4 + 7.5 + 0.5 — 0.4 + 7.7 + 0.3% -$32.2 + 56.7 + 90.8 - 42.4 + 36.2 + 17.0 + 205.4 + 6.3% Changes in— * Comparable basis. Page Seven National Summary of Business Conditions Industrial activity continued at a high rate in November and the first half of December and distribution of commodities increased considerably. Commodity prices generally showed little change following earlier advances. Production Index of physical volume of production, ad justed for seasonal variation, 1935-1939 aver age =100. By months, January 1934 to No vember 1940. Index of total loadings of revenue freight, ad justed for seasonal variation, 1923-1925 aver age =100. Miscellaneous, coal, and all other expressed in terms of points in the total index. By months, January 1934 to November 1940. Volume of industrial production, which usually declines at this season, showed little change from October to November, and the Board’s seasonally adjusted index rose 3 points further to 132 per cent of the 1935-1939 average. Reflecting work on a large volume of orders for national defense purposes and for civilian needs, activity in the machinery and textile industries continued to in crease sharply. At machinery plants and at cotton textile mills activity reached new high levels and at woolen mills output was close to the previous peak reached early in 1937. Steel ingot production, which had been at about 94 per cent of capacity in October, increased somewhat further in November and the first half of December. Automobile production continued in unusually large volume, amounting in November to around 500,000 cars and trucks. Retail sales of new cars have been large this autumn and production has been maintained at high levels in order to supply this demand and to build up dealers’ stocks. Lumber production declined less than seasonally from October to November. New orders for lumber continued somewhat above the current rate of production although below the high level of the three pre ceding months when large orders were placed for cantonment construction. Lumber stocks at mills continued to decline and were smaller than at any time in recent years. Bituminous coal production increased considerably in November, following a sharp decline in the previous month, while output of crude petroleum was maintained at about the October rate. Production of most metals continued in large volume. Value of total construction contract awards declined less than seasonally in No vember. In the 37 eastern States for which F. W. Dodge Corporation data are avail able total contracts showed little change; awards for public construction increased further and those for private work declined by somewhat less than the usual seasonal amount. In the far western States contract awards showed a decline from the un usually high level reached in October. Distribution Distribution of commodities to consumers increased considerably in November. Sales at department stores and mail-order houses rose sharply, while variety store sales increased by about the usual seasonal amount. In the first half of December there was the customary large expansion in retail sales. Total freight car loadings showed considerably less than the usual seasonal de cline in November and the early part of December. Loadings of coal, which had been curtailed in October, increased sharply and shipments of ore and of miscel laneous merchandise declined much less than is usual at this time of the year. Wholesale Commodity Prices Three-month moving averages of F. W. Dodge Corporation data for value of contracts awarded in 37 eastern States, adjusted for seasonal variation. Latest figures based on data for October, November and estimate for December. Prices of basic commodities, which had risen substantially since August, gen erally showed little change from the middle of November to the middle of December. Prices of a few imported commodities, particularly cocoa, burlap, and shellac, in creased considerably and there were small advances in steel scrap and some other domestic commodities, while moderate declines were reported for such varied com modities as lead, grains, and lard. Bank Credit MEMBER BANKS IN 101 LEADING CITIES Total loans and investments at reporting member banks in 101 leading cities have increased sharply since the beginning of October. Commercial loans continued to increase in November and the first half of December, and holdings of United States Government obligations at New York City banks rose sharply. Principally as a re sult of the expansion of bank loans and investments, Government expenditures, and foreign disbursements financed by additional gold imports, bank deposits increased to new high levels. At the same time there has been a considerable increase in cur rency in circulation partly in response to seasonal trade demands. United States Government Security Prices ’34 1935 Wednesday figures, September 5, 1934 to De cember 11, 1940. Commercial loans based on new classification beginning May 19, 1937. Page Eight Prices of United States Government securities continued to rise during half of November and the early part of December, and the 1960-65 bonds to successive new high levels, with a peak of about 111% on December 10. on this issue declined to a low point of 2.03 per cent on the latter date, but slightly toward the middle of the month, reflecting some easing in prices. the latter advanced The yield increased
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