The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
tflh, QfSl/J THE BUSINESS REVIEW THIRD FEDERAL PHILADELPHIA RESERVE DISTRICT JANUARY i, i93i By RICHARD L. AUSTIN, Chairman and Federal Reserve Agent FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of PHILADELPHIA business and Financial Conditions in the United States Industrial activity and factory em ployment declined further from Oc tober to November, reflecting in part the usual seasonal tendencies. Con tinued gold imports and further re duction in member bank reserve re quirements during November and the first half of December were reflected in a considerable decline in the out standing volume of reserve bank credit. Production and employment. In No vember industrial production showed a somewhat larger decrease than is usual at this season and the Board’s seasonally adjusted index declined from 73 to 72 per cent of the 1923 1925 average. Activity declined at woolen mills, lumber mills, and coal mines, while daily average output at steel mills increased and volume of automobile production showed less than the usual seasonal decline from the low level of October. The No vember increase in steel production was followed by a considerable de cline in the first three weeks of De INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION cember. Output of petroleum in creased further in November to a level slightly lower than that prevail ing last summer before output was sharply curtailed. Volume of employment in most manufacturing industries declined by more than the seasonal amount be tween the middle of October and the middle of November. Reductions were particularly large in the wear ing apparel, leather, and building ma terials industries, while in the auto mobile and tire industries declines were smaller than usual at this season. The value of building contracts awarded, as reported by the F. W. Dodge Corporation, has declined fur ther in recent months and a pre liminary estimate of the Board’s seasonally adjusted index for the last quarter of 1931 is 49 per cent of the 1923-1925 average, compared with 59 for the third quarter, 65 for the second quarter, and 79 for the first quarter of the year; part of this de cline in dollar volume reflects lower building costs. RAILROAD FREIGHT-CAR LOADINGS Production of principal crops in 1931 was about 10 per cent larger than in 1930, according to the Decem ber crop report of the Department of Agriculture, while acreage harvested was slightly smaller than a year ago. There were large increases in the crops of cotton, corn, winter wheat, apples, and peaches, while the har vests of oats, barley, and rye were smaller than last year; as in 1930 the hay crop was unusually small. PERCENT FACTORY EMPLOYMENT 120 110 80 60 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 Federal Reserve Board’s index of factory em ployment with adjustment for seasonal varia tion. (1923-1925Javerage = 100.) BILLIONS OF DOLLARS MEMBER BANK CREDIT BIU.I0M OF DOLLARS 10 All Other Loans Loans on Securities, Investments Index number of industrial production, ad justed for seasonal variation. (1923-25 average = 100.) Indexes of daily average number of cars loaded; adjusted for seasonal variation. (1923-1925 average = 100.) Monthly averages of weekly figures for report ing member banks in leading cities. Latest figures are averages of first two weeks in De cember. Page One Distribution. Commodity distribution continued sit about the same rate in November as in October, the volume of freight car loadings showing a seasonal decline, while sales of de partment stores increased by about the usual amount for that month. Wholesale prices. The general level of wholesale prices remained prac tically unchanged from October to November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics index, prices of grains, petroleum, and silver advanced, while those of livestock and dairy products showed declines, partly of a seasonal character. Between the mid dle of November and the middle of December there were decreases in the prices of many leading commodities including livestock, meats, grains, sugar, silk and silver; during this period prices of copper and rubber showed a decline, followed by a re covery. Volume of reserve bank credit outstanding declined during November and the first half of De cember, and averaged $360,000,000 less in the week ending December 12 than at its October peak seven weeks earlier. The decrease was in large part in the banks’ portfolio of ac ceptances, as discounts for member banks and holdings of United States government securities showed little change for the period. The decline in total volume of reserve bank credit outstanding during the period re flected a growth of $100,000,000 in the stock of monetary gold, largely through imports from Japan, and continued reduction in the reserve balances of member banks reflecting a further liquidation of member bank credit. Demand for currency de clined during the last three weeks of November and showed considerably less than usual seasonal increase in Bank credit. the first half of December. After the middle of December, however, bank suspensions in New England were followed by some increased with drawals of currency, part of which has begun to return. Loans and investments of member banks in leading cities continued to decline and on December 9 were $370, 000,000 smaller than four weeks earlier. The decrease was equally divided between the banks’ loans and their investments. Deposits of these banks, both demand and time, also Showed a decrease with a consequent reduction in required reserves. Money rates in the open market showed little change from the middle of November to the middle of De cember. Rates on prime commercial paper continued at 3 to 4 per cent While rates on 90-day bankers’ ac ceptances advanced from 2J4 to 3 per cent on November 25. Business and Financial Conditions in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Industrial activity slackened con siderably in November and early De cember. Output of manufactures showed more than the usual seasonal decline from October to November. Production of anthracite fell off ma terially after showing a sharp gain in October, while that of bituminous coal increased slightly; in early De cember mining of anthracite increased while that of bituminous declined. The value of building permits and contracts decreased more than was to be ex pected. Retail trade in November failed to measure up to the volume of past years but it was quite active in early December. Wholesale busi ness continues seasonally quiet. Busi ness in all major industries and trades showed marked declines in the first eleven months of this year as com pared with the same period last year. Member banks report further de clines in loans to customers, continu ing the tendency which has been in progress for many months. Rates on prime commercial loans have changed little. An increase in bills discounted by the reserve bank during the month ending in the middle of December seems to have resulted chiefly from Treasury operations ; currency demand was exceptionally quiet, giving little Page Two indication of the strong increase usual at this season. Demand for manu factured products has fallen off as it usually does toward the end of the year. Unfilled orders for finished goods are smaller than a month ago and as compared with last year. Re cessions in Wholesale prices continued, although the decline was compara tively small. Stocks of finished merchandise at plants decreased from the preceding month; they were also smaller than in early December last year. The latest available national index shows that inventories of manufactured goods in October were the lowest in nine years, while those of raw ma terials were the largest for the same period. Factory employment in Pennsyl vania declined less than 1 per cent, while wage payments and operating time decreased 5 per cent from Oc tober to November. In the country, employment decreased 3 per cent and payrolls 5 per cent. Compared with November 1930, Pennsylvania fac tories employed 16 per cent fewer workers and paid out 31 per cent less in wages. Similarly, national indexes Manufacturing. showed a drop of 15 per cent in fac tory employment and 25 per cent in payrolls, indicating curtailment of operations. Productive activity in manufactur ing declined 3 per cent more than it usually does between October and November. This drop may be at tributed chiefly to further curtail ment of activity in metals, textiles, building materials, and paper and print ing. The preliminary index, at 71 per cent of the 1923-25 average, was 20 per cent lower than in November 1930. The sharpest declines from a year ago occurred in metal products, building materials, paper and printing, radio and musical instruments, and transpor tation equipment. In the metal group all items showed declines in output in November ex cept iron and steel castings, which registered gains in daily output. Ac tivity in factories making automobile bodies and parts has been on the in crease since the middle of the year, and in November reached the highest level since April last year. The gain in shipbuilding was not as large as was to be expected, while operations of plants making locomotives and cars and motor vehicles declined further. After reaching a peak in August CHECK PAYMENTS PERCENT 200 and ___________ 1 WAGE PRICES 1923-25 AVG. = 100 PERCENT ALL PAYMENTS MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 1923—?5. AVG.—100 PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE •DELAWARE DISTRICT UNITED STATES l (new yc RK CITY EXCLUDE ) NEW JERSEY' 100 —-—.. 90 y 80 WHOLES/\LE PRICES 70 V \ PENNSYLVANIA 60 50 CHECK PAYMENTS ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATIONS ~1928 1929 1930 and September, output of textile products fell off more than usual in the two following months, all lines sharing in the recession except knit underwear. Canning and preserving and output of ice cream measured up to seasonal volumes, even though the totals were smaller than in several years past; other lines in the food group regis tered declines during the month. Production of cigars held more than its ground, although November was the third smallest month since 1924. A decline of 11 per cent in the out put of shoes was somewhat smaller than is customary for November; the drop in the country’s shoe production was IS per cent from October to November. Activity in the leather tanning industry also declined season ally. The hide market generally is quiet and prices show continued weak ness. In the building materials group, operations of plants making cement, and paints and varnishes were more active than ordinarily was to be ex pected, while the output of brick, and lumber and planing mill products de clined as usual. Production of ex plosives and oil and petroleum prod ucts showed rather exceptional gains. Electric power output was smaller in November than October, which is contrary to the usual seasonal tend ency ; it was also less than a year ago. The use of electrical energy by indus tries declined slightly in November, and it was 10 per cent below the quan tity consumed a year ago. Detailed comparisons follow: 1931 1932 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 November, 1931 Percentage change since Business indicators Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Amount Oct., 1931 Nov., 1930 Retail trade*—estimated net sales (161) stores Department (67)................................................... Men’s apparel (25)............................................... Women’s apparel (15)................................... Shoe (36)................................................................. Credit (18).............................................................. $832,600 $722,700 $22,500 $62,500 $8,700 $16,200 + 1.8 + 2.3 + 8.8 - 1.9 -9.4 - 6.9 20.0 Wholesale trade*—net sales (100 firms)............ Boots and shoes (5).............................................. Drugs (10)............................................................... Dry goods (12)....................................................... Electrical supplies (8).......................................... Groceries (29)......................................................... Hardware (20)....................................................... Jewelry (9).............................................................. Paper (7).................................................................. $247,562 $3,654 $54,238 $12,343 $10,208 $93,323 $50,784 $10,436 $12,576 + 4.4 -13.9 + 6.3 - 8.5 +10.7 + 1.7 + 3.5 - 4.1 12.6 3.0 4.3 16.5 46.7 3.1 12.7 34.6 17.5 Productive activity*— Employment—823 plants in Penna................. Wage payments (weekly average)................... Shoe production!—80 f actories......................... Hosiery production!—133 mills................. . . . Underwear production!—53 mills................... Wool consumption!—60 mills............................ Active cotton spindle hours............................... Pig iron production............................................... Iron casting production—31 foundries........... Steel casting production—9 foundries............. Anthracite................................................................ Bituminous coal—Penna..................................... Petroleum receipts at Port of Philadelphia... Cement...................................................................... Electric power output—11 systems.................. 246,153 $4,639,280 41,434 58,952 13,716 209,766 514,291 2,568 95 83 180,000 306,300 40.200 - 0.7 - 5.0 - 15.6 - 31.4 doz. prs. . doz. pcs. . .........lbs. . ..tons.. ..tons. . . . tons. . ..tons. . . . tons.. . . bbls. . . . bbls. . KWH. . 68.200 - 19.8 23.9 17.3 31.4 24.6 6.2 -10.8 -21.8 - 0.4 - 2.2 + 9.0 + 2.7 -28.6 + 1.7 - 7.6 -10.8 - 20.3 47.1 38.5 40.8 19.1 24.4 25.8 14.4 1.3 17,633,900 - 3.2 Financial and credit— Debits (check payments)*—17 cities..................................................... $76,254,500 Loans and investments—December 16 reporting member banks in 4 cities.................................................................................................... $1,240,000,000 Bills discounted held by F. R. B. of Phila. (daily average)........... $108,311,000 Bankers’ acceptances outstanding—end of month............................ $17,289,000 Commercial paper sales*—4 dealers....................................................... $24,875 Commercial failures—number.................................................................. 130 Commercial failures—liabilities............................................................... $5,199,363 -13.5 26.3 + 0.6 +21.3 + 0.5 -31.2 -21.2 -41.7 - 5.6 +452.5 - 32.0 - 89.8 + 39.8 + 27.8 Building and real estate— Building permits*—17 cities....................................................................... Building contracts awarded*...................................................................... Number of real estate deeds recorded* (Philadelphia county)........ Value of mortgages recorded* (Philadelphia county)......................... Sheriff sales writs issued for December—(Philadelphia county) $113,458 $331,100 182 $309,461 1,832 -28.6 -66.3 -11.7 +18.4 +35.0 - 49.0 - 7.6 - 50.0 + 49.6 21,770 $4,487,300 292 - 9.1 +28.9 -10.4 20.1 2.7 3.3 Miscellaneous*— Freight car loadings (Allegheny district)...................... Sales of life insurance (Penna., N. J., and Del.)........ Automobile sales registrations of new passenger cars * Daily average of monthly figures. ! Bureau of the Census preliminary figures. Page Three TEXTILE UNITED FIBERS STATES WHOLESALE TRADE PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT DOLLAR* COTTON PERCENT AVG. 1923-25=100 DRUGS WOOL PAPER 4.00 1930 Sources: Department of Commerce, Fairchild’s Publications, Dun\ Review Electric power Philadelphia Federal Reserve District 11 systems Nov., 1931, per cent change from Nov., 1930 Oct., 1931 Rated generator capacity............ + 1.9 0.0 Generated output........................... Hydro-electric............................ Steam............................................ Purchased..................................... - 1.3 +26.8 - 7.4 +19.5 - 3.2 -14.9 - 2.6 - 2.7 Sales of electricity.......................... Lighting........................................ Municipal................................. Residential and commercial. Power............................................ Municipal................................ Street cars and railroads. . . Industries*............................... All other sales............................. - 3.3 + 6.7 + 2.7 + 7.2 -10.4 + 7.6 -13.8 -10.2 +38.1 + 3.9 +16.0 +11.5 +16.6 + 0.3 +10.8 + 2.0 - 0.2 + 4.2 * Working days average—other items are com puted on calendar days. Awards of contracts for building construction during Novem ber were about one-third of those let in October, which was a much sharper decline than usual. All classes of con struction, except factories, sustained marked losses in the value of con tracts awarded, and the November vol ume was the lowest in many years. Awards in the first half of December decreased further and were less than one-half the volume of a year ago. The drop in building permits in No vember was slightly more than sea sonal; permits in November were only about one-fourth of those a year ago. Employment in building construc tion in Pennsylvania was 10 per cent smaller and wage payments 11 per cent less in November than October. The drop in payrolls varied from 10 per cent in Philadelphia and Erie to 19 per cent in Reading. Decreases in the Building. Page Four number of em DRY GOODS ploye - hours worked amounted to 11 per cent in v-v ,, LA Philadelphia, 16 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED per cent in Scran 1928 1929 1932 1930 1931 ton, and 18 per cent in Reading, showing largely seasonal curtailments past season; dairy cattle were in healthy condition and yields of milk in operations. and butter compared favorably with those of a year earlier. Slaughtering Per cent change Eleven fr m Contracts awarded months of swine last fall was noticeably larger in selected cities 1931 (000’s and district than in the corresponding period of omitted) 1926-29 1930 1930. average Philadelphia.............. S 52,664 3,108 Reading...................... Scranton..................... 1,195 Camden...................... 2,137 Trenton...................... 3,627 Wilmington............... 3,781 “All other”............... 114,371 -55.4 + 6.6 -67.5 -49.8 + 2.9 -45.7 -33.0 -71.3 -50.0 -71.6 -77.1 -56.6 -45.1 -45.1 District, all cities... -41.7 -57.6 180,882 Source: F. W. Dodge Corporation. Owing to sharp declines in the wholesale prices of many farm products, the aggregate value of crops produced in 1931 was substantially lower than in either of the two preced ing years. The total acreage harvested this year was only slightly smaller than in 1930, while yields per acre were materially higher. Preliminary reports indicate that the Pennsylvania tobacco crop was excep tionally high in quality and was the largest produced since 1925; yield? of corn, tame hay and white potatoes were substantially larger than those of a year ago, while the wheat and oats harvests were somewhat smaller. The condition of livestock on farms was generally satisfactory during the Agriculture. Output of farm products Phila. Fed. Res. Dist. 1931 (OpO’s omitted) Acreage harvested. . Value of farm crops. 5,047 119,515 Per cent change 1929 1930 - 1.2 -33.8 - 0.7 -25.2 Source: U. S. Department of Agriculture. The anthracite market has been rather quiet since the middle of November, owing largely to unseason able weather. Colliery output in No vember, which averaged 180,000 tons daily, declined sharply and was the second smallest for that month in nine years; in early December the weekly production of mines increased but con tinued smaller than in the correspond ing period of 1930. Shipments also showed a marked reduction and were only slightly above the low level of September. Although prices at whole sale remained unchanged, they were about 5 per cent higher than in No vember, 1930. Production of Pennsylvania bitu minous coal increased in November; Coal. TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT REAL ESTATE PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PERCENTr PRODUCTIVE ACTA PHILADELPHIA ^DEEDS RECORDED SHIPBUILDIfVG MORTGAGES RECORDED Jn millions os dollars) L0COMOTIVI SHERIFF SALES SEASONALLY CORRECTED 1927 1928 1930 Source: Philadelphia Real Estate Board in the first fortnight of December the weekly output of collieries was reduced. Shipments were sharply cur tailed in November and were the smallest since August; compared with November 1930, they showed a decline of about 22 per cent. Prices increased fractionally but were noticeably lower than those of a year ago. Distribution. Retail sales showed a gain of 2 per cent from October to November but this increase was not as large as was to be seasonally expected. In comparison with a year ago, the dollar volume of sales was 20 per cent smaller and for the first eleven months of this year they were 12 per cent smaller, declines ranging from 10 per cent in sales of credit stores to 20 per cent in those of shoe stores. Figures from department and apparel stores in the accompanying table indicate that declines in retail business of Philadel phia stores were more pronounced than those in other leading areas of the dis trict. Continued price recessions, un favorable industrial conditions, and unseasonable weather explain these adverse comparisons. Preliminary re ports show that seasonal sales in early December were stimulated consider ably by colder weather. Inventories at retail establishments increased 3 per cent from October to November but were IS per cent smaller than a year earlier. The rate of turnover was slightly higher this year than last. The ratio of collec tions during November to outstanding balances at the beginning of that month was 30 per cent as compared Percentage change Retail trade Philadelphia Federal Reserve District November, 1931 Net sales: 1931, compared with 1930 Stocks: Nov. 30, 1931, compared with Nov. Eleven months Nov. 30, Oct. 31, 1930 1931 All reporting stores___ -20.0 -12.2 -14.5 Department................... in Philadelphia......... outside Philadelphia Men’s apparel............... in Philadelphia......... outside Philadelphia Women’s apparel......... in Philadelphia......... outside Philadelphia. Shoe...................... .. Credit.............................. -19.8 -20.5 -18.0 -23.9 -29.3 -19.8 -17.3 -18.1 -11.5 -31.4 -24.6 -12.1 -13.5 - 8.7 -16.2 -20.1 -13.0 -10.7 -10.7 -11.0 -19.9 -10.1 -14.2 -14.0 -14.7 -13.5 -16.3 -11.4 -17.8 -18.8 -12.3 -17.7 -17.4 Wholesale trade Philadelphia Federal Reserve District November, 1931 (Percentage change is indicated by + and — signs) Net sales— Eleven months 1931 com pared with eleven months 1930. . . Nov., 1931, compared with: October, 1931................... November, 1930............. Actual index*: November, 1931.............. October, 1931.................. November, 1930............. Seasonally adjusted index*: November, 1931............. October, 1931.................. November, 1930............. Stocks—Nov. 30, 1931 Change from: October 31, 1931............ November 30, 1930........ Ratios of collections to receivables: November, 1931.................. November, 1930.................. Rate of turnover eleven months Ratios of collections to receivables, November 1930 1931 1930 1931 + 3.4 3.41 3.47 30.7 29.6 + 3.7 + 4.7 + 1.7 + 8.0 +21.0 + 0.8 - 4.5 - 5.3 - 0.3 - 4.5 + 4.2 3.43 3.77 2.73 1.98 2.16 1.84 5.55 5.87 3.64 2.42 2.24 3.47 3.72 2.94 1.96 2.11 1.85 5.94 6.37 3.60 2.33 2.47 35.1 32.3 32.7 28.6 33.5 23.7 11.5 30.8 30.3 10.1 Boots and shoes Drugs Dry goods Elec trical supplies -20.6 - 5.0 -17.5 -20.0 -13.4 -19.2 —36.8 —18.7 -13.9 - 3.0 + 6.3 4.3 - 6.2 -16.5 - 8.5 -46.7 +10.7 - 3.1 + 1.7 -12.7 + 3.9 -33.8 - 4.1 -17.5 62.2 72.2 64.1 101.5 95.5 106.1 55.8 59.5 66.8 55.2 60.3 103.6 93.2 84.2 96.2 72.6 71.4 83.2 65.9 63.4 99 5 65.4 68.2 79 3 58.7 58.2 60.5 98.5 97.4 103.0 43.3 44.7 51.8 42.5 47.1 79.7 85.5 77.2 88.3 65.4 62.6 75.0 46.1 47.3 69.6 62.3 63.7 75.5 + 0.6 -10.0 - 9.1 -14.8 -12.1 -39.1 - 1.4 -17.5 - 2.6 - 2.7 - 3.4 -28.1 - 3.3 -18.0 79.1 75.6 40.7 40.4 47.1 69.2 84.7 87.9 36.3 36.0 15.4 13.6 50.1 65.4 29.2 25.5 Grocer ies Hard ware Jewelry Paper ♦These indexes are percentages of the 1923-25 average taken as 100. Page Five with 31 per cent a year ago, indicating a slight decline in payment of ac counts. Sales at wholesale were 4 per cent larger in November than October. Exceptional gains were reported by dealers in groceries and hardware; business in drugs was also slightly larger than usual, while the gain in jewelry was not as large as was to be expected. Larger than seasonal de clines occurred in the sale of dry goods and paper, while in shoes decreases were a little less than was to be sea sonally anticipated. In early Decem ber wholesale business slackened as it ordinarily does toward the end of the year. Compared with November 1930, dollar sales at wholesale were 13 per cent smaller, declines varying from 3 per cent in shoes to 47 per cent in elec trical supplies. Sales in the first eleven months of this year were 15 per cent smaller than in the same period last year, reflecting in part the influence of lower prices. Dealers’ stocks declined in Novem ber and were appreciably smaller than a year ago. Percentages of collections during November to receivables at the beginning of the month were some what higher than a year ago in shoes, drugs, jewelry, dry goods and hard ware but lower in electrical supplies, groceries and paper. Shipments of commodities by rail road freight in this section were 9 per cent smaller than in the preceding month, this decline being somewhat less than usual. Loadings for the year to date as compared with the same period last year were 21 per cent smaller. Sales of new automobile passenger cars as measured by registrations de clined 10 per cent from October, which was a smaller decline than usual; com pared with last year, sales were only 3 per cent smaller. The demand for currency has been quiet over the past month and rates on prime com mercial loans have shown little change, but member bank loans to customers have declined further. From November 18 to December 16 payments of currency only slightly ex ceeded receipts, although Christmas savings deposits usually are disbursed in this period and holiday retail sales ordinarily are heavy. Both a year ago Financial conditions. Changes in— Federal Reserve Philadelphia (Dollar figures in millions) Dec. 16, 1931 Bills discounted for banks in— Philadelphia. . . . $ 64.5 20 other large cities................. 28.8 Other communi ties .................... 24.3 Total bills dis counted ........... $117.6 Bills bought............ 4.4 United States se curities ............. 54.1 Other securities. . . 5.8 Total bills and securities......... $181.9 Federal reserve note circula tion ................... 273.5 Member bank re serve deposits. 127.7 Cash reserves......... 264.1 Reserve ratio.......... 64.0% Four weeks One year +$5.4 +* 61.0 + 2.9 + 18.3 + 1.4 + 14.1 +$9.7 - 2.5 +$ 93.4 + 0.9 - 4.0 - 2.0 + + +*1.2 +$103.2 + 2.1 + 143.9 - 2.5 - 5.8 + - 0.7% - DEPOSITS REPORTING MEMBER BANKS-- -- - PHILADELPHIA DISTRICT MILLIONS DOLLARS 800 NET DEMAND DEPOSITS 750 3.1 5.8 13.3 32.1 21.5% and two years ago at this time of the year the excess of currency payments over receipts amounted to well over 20 millions. Although currency had slight effect on the demand for reserve bank credit, and payments and receipts in the inter district settlements almost balanced, there was an increase from 108 to 118 millions in borrowings from this bank, over half of which represented addi tional loans to Philadelphia banks. This increase may be explained largely by Treasury operations. In the four weeks, government collections, includ ing income tax checks and withdrawals from deposits set up in payment for securities issued several months ago, exceeded local disbursements by about 11 millions; of this amount about 3j4 millions was absorbed by the redemp tion of securities held by this bank. The reports of member banks in Philadelphia, Camden, Scranton and Wilmington reflect new financing by the government on December 15. United States deposits credited in pay ment for securities allotted to these banks totaled 40 millions on December 16; practically all of this was in con nection with the new issues of Decem ber 15, as nearly all of the 10 millions reported a month ago had been with drawn. Government security holdings increased from 190 to 219 millions. Net demand deposits have been rather stable over the past few months and show an increase of 2 millions in the four weeks, but time deposits show a further decrease from 299 to 273 mil lions and are at the lowest point since the end of 1929. Customers’ loans COMMERCIAL PAPER SALES BY DEALERS OPERATING IN THE PHILADELPHIA DISTRICT MILUONS dollars Fl|ur >s cum j Idled from J anuary i j / 100 19.so—, / 700 75 450 7 f 400 y 50 ~7~ TIME DEPOSITS / / A 25 X 193 192 /« .9* 0 200 1928 Average first three Wednesdays Page Six J FMAMJ JASON D decreased from 729 to 713 millions in the month, owing largely to a decline in loans on securities. Weekly reporting member banks (000,000’s omitted) Nov. 18 Dec. 9 Dec. 16 Loans to customers......... $ Loans to the open-market United States securities. Other securities................. 729 $ 20 190 293 721 $ 18 187 291 713 19 219 289 Total loans and investments.......................... $1,232 $1,217 $1,240 Net demand and time deposits.......................... 972 984 960 Government deposits___ 10 1 40 During the past year deposits, in cluding net demand, time and govern ment funds, have decreased from; 1,137 to 1,000 millions of dollars; loans and investments show a shrinkage of only 74 millions, from 1,314 to 1,240 mil lions, hut borrowings from the Federal Reserve Bank have risen materially. Sales to— paper sales (four dealers) City banks Country banks Total sales 1931—Aug.... $2,635,000 $2,494,500 $5,129,500 Sept.... 60,000 535.000 595.000 Oct. ... 0 850.000 850.000 Nov.... 0 497,500 497,500 1930—Nov.... 1929—Nov.... 3,165,000 1,582,500 4,747,500 530,000 3,695,000 4,225,000 The composition of the loan and investment total has changed sub stantially ; loans show a decline of 146 millions, chiefly in loans to customers ; i n vestments, owing to increased hold ings of United States securities, have risen from 436 to 508 mil lions and the pro portion to total loans and invest ments has ad vanced from 33 to 41 per cent. Four dealers reported only $497,000 of com mercial paper sales in Novem ber, establishing a new low record for the year; a year ago sales were nearly ten times as great. No sales to Philad e1p hia banks were reported. Percentage change—Nov., 1931, from Nov., 1930. City areas* Employ ment Allentown................................. Altoona...................................... Harrisburg................................ Johnstown................................ Lancaster.................................. Philadelphia............................ Scranton.................................... Trenton..................................... Wilkes-Barre............................ Wilmington.............................. Wage pay ments Building permits (value) -24.3 -11.6 -23.5 -45.9 - 3.9 -12.4 -10.9 -26.9 -12.6 - 5.5 - 1.8 -12.5 -12.5 -37.4 -27.9 -39.4 -53.1 -18.8 -23.5 -27 0 -28.1 -31.0 -21.2 — 1.1 -28.0 —31.3 - 78.6 - 81.0 +220.8 - 48.7 - 82.9 - 85.0 + 38 0 + 31.7 +310.7 - 77.9 — 82.4 + 62.2 - 79.6 Wilmington.............................. + + + + - 3.5 1.5 2.7 3.4 3.4 0.8 1.5 1.0 0.5 3.0 9.3 3.1 3.4 - 8.7 - 1.8 -14.6 - 1.0 - 3.0 - 5.2 - 1.4 - 1.2 - 7.0 - 1.0 -11.9 - 8.3 -10.7 - 30.1 - 56.1 +224.9 - 0.3 + 24.3 - 58.2 +169.5 - 12.4 - 27.1 - 14.1 — 63 2 + 20.3 + 26.3 Per cent change since Per cent change since Nov. index * Nov., 1930 Oct., 1931 Nov. index * Nov., 1930 Oct., 1931 All manufacturing industries (51)....................................... 71.5 -15.6 - 0.7 51.3 -31.4 - 5.0 Metal products.......................... Blast furnaces........................ Steel wks. and rolling mills. Iron and steel forgings........ Structural iron work............ Steam & hot wtr. htg. app. . Stoves and furnaces............. Foundries................................ Machinery and parts........... Electrical apparatus............. Engines and pumps............. Hardware and tools............. Brass and bronze products. 62.8 37.8 53.8 63.4 85.7 84.9 66.5 59.0 71.6 92.5 43.6 68.9 58.8 -23.6 -19.6 -27.6 -27.1 -15.3 -10.7 -13.3 -24.9 -20.4 -17.3 -38.1 -14.1 -21.6 + + - 39.1 23.1 31.2 43.2 54.2 56.1 53.4 31.2 47.9 67.3 26.5 45.4 42.4 -44.3 -45.9 -48.3 -49.0 -34.0 -34.4 -14.1 -50.4 -36.0 -40.8 -53.9 -29.7 -36.6 - 8.6 - 8.3 - 5.5 -17.2 -14.8 -15.9 - 1.1 - 5.5 + 1.9 -15.5 -10.2 - 7.3 -12.2 Transportation equipment.. . . Automobiles............................ Auto, bodies and parts.... Locomotives and cars.......... Railroad repair shops.......... Shipbuilding........................... 42.7t 42.8 62.0 19.3 66.4 41.2 -34.3 - 4.0 +10.1 -47.7 - 7.8 -54.1 - 3.8 -22.3 +25.0 -16.1 + 3.6 + 2.0 34.4| 19.4 72.6 13.6 48.6 56.3 -39.5 - 6.3 +63.9 -56.7 -25.7 -60.5 + 4.2 -17.8 +31.3 - 8.1 - 4.5 + 2.2 Textile dyeing and finishing Carpets and rugs.................. Hats.......................................... Hosiery.................................... Knit goods, other................. Men’s clothing...................... Women’s clothing................. Shirts and furnishings......... 89.3 61.9 60.7 91 .3 83.8 64.5 74.5 115.5 88.5 67.9 97.3 144.3 - 7.4 + 5.1 + 4.3 -14.7 - 9.2 + 4.7 -14.6 - 2.7 -13.1 -14.1 -15.8 0.0 75.3 - 0.3 - 3.0 51.0 - 8.9 49.4 83.8 - 2.1 - 0.8 70.7 - 3.7 51.5 + 1.2 47.6 + 7.1 105.9 67.6 - 4.1 -17.7 52.4 + i.i 79.8 - 4.0 116.5 -18.2 + 1.8 0.0 -24.8 -19.8 - 1.9 -27.8 -16.6 -37.5 -19.5 -28.9 -12.2 - 3.0 - 4.1 -10.8 - 7.0 + 3.5 -12.9 -17.6 + 9.3 -12.0 -27.9 + 3.1 - 7.0 Foods and tobacco.................... Bread and bakery products Confectionery........................ Ice cream................................. Meat packing......................... Cigars and tobacco............... 103.1 104.9 104.1 83.4 97.6 100.7 - 3.1 - 5.8 + 2.9 -10.9 + 0.2 - 4.0 + + - 1.2 0.9 3.1 6.2 1.6 1.2 90.5 95.2 84.3 78.9 85.5 87.0 - 9.3 -12.4 0.0 -15.6 - 8.3 - 9.4 - 4.0 - 2.1 -19.2 - 9.7 - 0.5 + 5.5 Stone, clay and glass products Brick, tile and pottery........ Cement.................................... Glass......................................... 55.7 66.6 46.5 59.6 -12.8 -12.5 -17.8 - 5.1 - 3.5 2.8 5.7 0.2 34.4 35.5 29.0 49.4 -31.6 -36.7 -33.6 -14.8 -11.1 - 9.9 -14.2 - 3.3 1.4 0.8 2.0 2.1 Textile products........................ Cotton goods.......................... W oolens and worsteds......... + + - 0.5 1.0 0.9 8.8 3.9 3.7 2.3 1.7 0.0 3.5 2.3 2.5 3.6 Retail trade sales Lumber products....................... Lumber and planing mills.. Furniture................................. Wooden boxes........................ 55.8 36.7 62.4 60.1 -17.1 -31.0 -12.4 -11.0 + - 44.6 30.5 51.4 41.4 -26.0 -31.3 -24.3 -25.9 - 7.3 - 5.0 - 4.8 -19.1 -20.8 -23.4 -19.5 -31.7 -22.3 -26.6 -22.7 -27.6 -17.6 -26.4 -20.6 -20.6 Chemical products.................... 84.9 Chemicals and drugs........... 63.4 Coke.......................................... 60.9 Explosives............................... 75.4 Paints and varnishes........... 95.2 Petroleum refining................ 124.5 - 0.7 - 1.6 -19.3 - 4.7 +10.3 + 8.0 + 2.8 75.3 - 0.2 53.5 - 1.0 29.6 - 0.9 89.8 +11.9 78.0 + 3.8 123.4 -13.7 -16.1 -51.5 - 3.5 - 8.0 - 0.9 + + + + - 9.0 - 4.2 -14.6 —21 2 -22.8 -20.6 - 8.4 -22.2 -12.4 Leather and rubber products. Leather tanning.................... Shoes......................................... Leather products, other... . Rubber tires and goods.... 88.2 90.8 95.3 64.9 81.9 - 9.1 -18.5 + 8.5 -18.0 -1.2 + 5.2 6.0 5.3 7.0 0.2 70.1 76.8 67.4 56.1 58.0 -23.0 -27.1 - 5.1 -35.5 -24.5 -13.5 - 7.7 -20.3 -13.0 -30.5 Paper and printing.................... Paper and wood pulp.......... Paper boxes and bags.......... Printing and publishing.... 92.0 78.1 88.9 97.8 - + + 0.1 1.5 1.7 0.4 84.8 62.8 85.9 93.5 -15.7 -15.9 -17.4 -14.1 - Anthracite.................................... 81.2 -14.3 - 3.8 62.3 -25.1 -19.4 75.5 -10.8 - 2.7 -25.4 -14.1 -22.1 -25.5 -31.6 -28.4 -20.5 -14.4 -21.1 - 0.9 -2717 -21.4 * Area not restricted to the corporate limits of cities given here. Employment and wages in Pennsylvania Payrolls November, 1931 Debits -18.3 November, 1931, from October, 1931 Allentown................................. Altoona..................................... Harrisburg................................ Johnstown................................ Lancaster.................................. Philadelphia............................. Reading..................................... Scranton................................... Trenton..................................... Wilkes-Barre............................ Employment November, 1931 -11.3 - 8.7 - 4.3 -23.2 -14.1 - 9.9 -13.7 +19.8 - 8.9 - 4.2 -10.2 5.1 5.9 4.4 3.8 2.3 6.3 8.9 8.3 4.7 6.2 2.4 1.3 3.4 2.9 + 0.9 — 8.6 Street railways.......................... 75.8 - 5.4 - 0.8 Retail trade................................. 88.3 -14.4 - 3.5 Wholesale trade........................ 89.3 - 2.4 — 8 8 - 1.9 * 1923-1925 average = 100. j* Preliminary. Page Seven Synopsis of Industrial and Trade Conditions in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Demand Operations Stocks Manufacturing Iron and steel Quiet Steel works and Declined rolling Slow and machine Declined Quiet Daily output of iron and steel castings increased Slow Foundries Declined Transportation equipment Quiet Declined More active Increased but not as much as usual Fair, some gain, prices lower Declined Textiles Increased Slow, prices lower Declined Slow, prices lower Declined Little change, year ago Declined, smaller than a year ago smaller than a Slow, declined, prices lower Declined Fair, some gain Declined Smaller than a year ago Slow, declined, prices lower Declined sharply Some increase in November but smaller than a year ago Leather products Slow, unfilled prices lower orders smaller, Declined Little change, smaller than a year ago Quiet, little change Little change Declined Increased Little change Smaller than a year ago Slow, unfilled orders smaller Declined Little chang,«, year ago Slow, declined Declined in December Larger than a year ago Slow, declined ................................... Slow, little change, prices lower Quiet, some gain kid Declined Little change Increased Building materials smaller Paints and varnishes............... Slow, declined Increased in November Slow, unfilled orders smaller Little change Little change Slow, declined, prices lower Little change a Smaller than a year ago Pottery than Little change Little change .................................... Miscellaneous Slow, prices lower Declined Smaller than a year ago Quiet, some gain Building Decline in November not as large Smaller than a year ago as usual Slow, declined Printing and publishing.... Little change Quiet, unfilled orders smaller Little change Declined Quiet, little change Declined Contract awards declined sharply Employment and payrolls declined in November Coal mining Anthracite ......................................... Little change prices in Quiet demand and Declined in November but creased in early December in Daily output increased in Novem ber Trade Active, increased Wholcfsale and jobbing.... Page Eight Larger but below last year Declined as usual Declined, smaller than a year ago A SUPPLEMENT TO THE BUSINESS REVIEW JANUARY, i93z Department of Research and Statistics Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia A Description of the Construction of an Index of Productive Activity in Manufacturing in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve District In the discharge of its responsibility for the “proper adjustment of the sup ply of credit to the needs of industry and commerce,” the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, like other re serve banks, must have continuous, prompt and dependable information on business conditions. Many business men—manufacturers, merchants, or bankers—realize the importance of having accurate measurements not only of the current activity in their own lines of business but also of the changes in trade and industry generally, in order to plan their budgets and opera tions in accordance with current devel opments. To meet the various needs for more adequate information, an index of productive activity in the manufacturing industry of this district has been constructed and is presented here.* It is shown on the accompany ing chart (page 2) and in the tables at the end of this article. The index is based on the 1923-1925 averagetaken as 100, and is given both with and without adjustment for the usual seasonal changes. The purpose of the new index is to measure changes in the rate and vol ume of output of manufactures, by far the most important industry in the dis trict. It is especially useful in analyz ing business developments, in combina tion with other data, such as those showing changes in employment and wage payments, volume of wholesale and retail trade, shipments of com modities, construction, and mining. The index relates to manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve District, which comprises 48 counties of eastern Pennsylvania, 9 * This index was planned and constructed un der the direct supervision of Casimir A. Sienkiewicz, with the assistance of J. Frank Rehfuss, Helen M. Conine, and Rhea D. Johnson. Grate ful acknowledgment is made to Aryness Joy. Woodlief Thomas, and Donald Thompson of the Division of Research and Statistics of the Fed eral Reserve Board for their helpful suggestions and criticisms. counties of southern New Jersey, and the State of Delaware. About 9 per cent of the total volume of manufac turing in the United States is done in this area. The economic importance of the district both in manufacturing and in other lines of industry is shown by Table I. Industrially the district is highly diversified and, in order to obtain a fair cross section of manufacturing activity, it has been necessary to secure figures for some of the most important lines in each of the major groups. To that end, figures bearing on the pro ductive activity of individual manu factures have been collected by months extending back to 1923; but until recently they have not been properly coordinated and so it has been ex tremely difficult to measure currently the central tendency among diverse changes of individual lines of manu facture. The new index provides such a measuring device. The bulk of manufactures produced here consists of goods ready for final consumption, and to a lesser extent for use in further manufacture. Table II shows the diversity,, character and im portance of some of the individual commodities manufactured in this dis trict as compared with the country as a whole. Data used in the index and their characteristics The index is made up of 45 series of figures covering most of the im portant industries in this district. The industries included in the index repre sent about two-thirds of the total out put of manufactures in the district. Table III shows the comprehensive nature of the index and its industrial groups. The only important indus tries not represented are railroad re pair shops, rubber tires and goods, glass and pottery, textile dyeing and Table I Per cent this dis trict of United States The economic importance of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Land area and population Area—square miles................................. Population, total..................................... Population, gainfully employed.......... Banking, etc. Resources of national and state bank ing institutions..................................... Persons engaged in— Banking and brokerage...................... Insurance and real estate.................. Manufacturing Wage earners............................................. Wages...................................... j................. Cost of materials..................................... Value of products..................................... Value added by manufacture............... Extraction of minerals Anthracite coal—tons............................. Bituminous coal—tons........................... Persons engaged in—coal mines.......... Persons engaged in—others.................. Building Contracts awarded*................................ Persons engaged in building industry. Families (preliminary)............................ Agriculture Farm population (rural and urban). . Number of farms..................................... Land area in farms.................................. Value of land in farms........................... Value of farm buildings and imple ments ....................................................... Cash income.............................................. Volume of trade Retail sales (60 cities)............................ Wholesale sales......................................... Automobile sales (registrations of new passenger cars)............................ Persons engaged in retail and whole sale trades, except automobiles. .. . Port of Philadelphia—foreign and domestic trade**................................. Transportation and communication Persons engaged in................................. 1.2 6.2 6.2 7.6 5.8 5.7 9.5 9.2 7.7 8.1 8.6 100.0 4.3 27.7 4.2 7.7 7.5 6.3 2.2 2.2 1.2 1.3 4.3 2.6 4.6 4.8 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.6 * 37 states in the United States. ** 60 ports in the United States. finishing and structural iron and steel. About 30 of the lines used in the index, with weights aggregating nearly twothirds of the total, represent either actual output of products measured in physical units, such as number of pairs of shoes, tons of steel castings; con sumption of raw materials, such as number of pounds of wool consumed by mills; or machinery activity. For the remaining industries, physical vol ume of production is measured indi rectly by the use of monthly statistics Page One INDEX OF MANUFACTURING PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL ACTIVITY RESERVE PERCENT DISTRICT 1923-25 AVG. = 100 ACTUAL ADJUSTED FOR & 1 1 1 1Al 924 1925 1926 GROUPS SEASONAL VARIATIONS 1927 1928 COMPOSING 1929 THE 1930 193 INDEX ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATIONS METALS PERCENT 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 PERCENT 1929 1930 1931 TRANSPORTATION 1923 1924 1932 1925 1926 1927 EQUIPMENT 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1929 1930 1931 1932 1930 1931 1932 FOODS I 20 100 80 60 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 BUILDING I 20 1928 1924 1925 1926 1927 LEATHER MATERIALS 1925 1923 1932 1928 PRODUCTS I 00 80 60 40 1923 1924 1926 PAPER I 40 1927 1929 1930 1931 AND PRINTING 80 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 CHEMICALS 140 I 20 I 20 I 00 1923 1932 I 00 ./V•*\r 1923 19 24 1925 1 9 26 1 92 7 1928 19 2 9 1930 1931 193 2 TOBACCO 80 200 1923 1924 1925 SCALE ENLARG ED FOR 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 CONVEN IENCE I 50 100 1923 1924 1925 Digitized Page Two for FRASER 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 50 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 of wage payments in the district, ad justed either annually or biennially to conform with figures of the actual physical volume of production. The use of data on wage payments as a measure of productive activity is a novel feature of the index and makes possible the representation of a num ber of important industries such as transportation equipment, printing and publishing, and certain food lines, without which a measure of manufac turing in the Philadelphia district would be incomplete. The general trend of payrolls in the district corresponds closely with the trend of manufactures as indicated by value added by manufacture reported in the census. For individual in dustries, 'however, total wage pay ments do not always fluctuate in the same way as volume of production because of the introduction of econ omies in operation; accordingly sta tistics of wage payments in each in dustry have been adjusted to the appropriate level as shown by produc tion figures. In some industries, such as railroad locomotives and shipbuild ing, monthly payrolls are probably a better measure of output than the num ber of units completed, since several months are ordinarily required for completion of these units. In a numTable II Some of the principal manufactures of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Explosives..................................................... Carpets and rugs........................................ Locomotives and cars................................ Leather—tanned, curried, and finished Sugar refining.............................................. Steel works and rolling mills................... Electrical machinery................................. Structural iron and steel........................... Cigars............................................................. Dyeing and finishing textiles................... Railroad repair shops................................ Woolens and worsteds............................... Paints and varnishes................................. Bread and bakery products..................... Confectionery.............................................. Men’s clothing............................................. Petroleum refining..................................... Class.............................................................. Printing and publishing............................ Paper and wood pulp................................. Blast furnaces.............................................. Cotton goods................................................ Planing mills................................................ Aircraft......................................................... Foundries and machine shops................. Boots and shoes.......................................... Slaughtering................................................ Automobile bodies and parts.................. Women’s clothing...................................... Output— per cent of United States 41.6 41.5 29.7 27.0 24.5 24.1 23.9 23.9 19.3 15.8 15.7 15.6 13.8 13.6 13.5 12.4 12.3 11.6 11.3 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.3 8.2 7.8 7.5 7.2 6.9 6.8 6.1 5.6 5.9 4.9 4.8 4.4 4.0 ber of the other industries, payrolls are probably not quite as satisfactory a measure of the physical volume of production as total monthly output for the reason that payroll figures gener ally relate to the pay period ending nearest the 15th of the month rather than to the month as a whole, result ing in some differences in seasonal fluctuations. Each of these series has been carefully tested, and after ad justment to production statistics, is believed to represent the output of the industry reasonably well. Most of the data pertain directly to the area covered by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve District. In several instances, however, it was not possible to secure satisfactory figures for the district but only those covering a larger geographic area. In such cases only those series were used which showed that at least three-fourths of the total output was produced in this district and that the current reports from local manufacturers were well represented in the figures. Daily averages and adjustments to census changes Figures of output as originally re ported in most cases are on a monthly basis, taking no account of the differ ence in the number of working days from one month to another as well as from one year to another. In order to make these figures truly comparable, they have been reduced to daily aver ages for all the series, except those representing machinery activity and those which have been derived from wage payments. In the latter, how ever, special adjustments have been made in the case of the periods which include a holiday in one year and do not in other years. The number of working days each year has been deter mined separately for each line of manufacture. After selecting the necessary data and making preliminary adjustments, figures for each line were then ex pressed in percentages, or relatives, as they are technically called, of the monthly average of the three years, 1923, 1924 and 1925. Annual figures for each industry were next compared with the trend as shown by the census of manufactures and whenever necessary were adjusted to the level of change indicated by the census, which at present is the most complete record available. The neces sity for this adjustment arises from Table III Adequacy of data used in the index* Group and industry Per cent of total output repre sented by index Groups Indus tries All manufacturing industries........ 65.7 Metals................................................. 57.1 72.9 Active cotton spindle hours___ Carpets and rugs......................... 50.6 Locomotives and cars................. Motor vehicle bodies and parts. 88.3 20.5 16.0 94 8 50.1 77 1 60 5 20.6 100.0 66 8 94.6 91.7 85.8 47.9 89.4 91.2 64.0 92.1 Foods....................... Bread and bakery products.... 81.2 Tobacco......................... 87.7 Tobacco and snuff....................... Building materials..................... Lumber and planing mills......... Brick........................ 63.7 Leather...................... Boots and shoes................... Paper and printing.................. Printing and publishing............. Paper and wood pulp.................. Chemicals................. Paints and varnishes... 100.0 100.0 99.0 100.0 60.4 80.8 37.1 100.0 94.1 20.4 33.8 29.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Gas and fuel oil............................ Lubricants................................. Radio and musical instruments. . 30.5 68.8 43 9 54.6 52.0 50.1 40 0 100.0 100.0 100.0 * Based on Census of Manufactures, 1927. the fact that many of the figures used in the index do not cover the entire industry, but only a limited number of manufacturers who are believed to be representative of each line. Statistical measurements of commercial and in dustrial activity derived from sample data, not from figures covering the entire industry or trade such as a monthly census would furnish, are sub ject to some bias in view of the fact that they do not reflect all of the changes in the activity or composition of the industry. The record provided by the biennial censuses affords a means for removing this bias so that the figures for each line show the same trend as does the census. This adjust ment affects only the yearly figures and does not disturb the current monthly changes as given by the index. Page Three SEASONAL VARIATION in MANUFACTURING PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE AVERACE FOR YEAR ACTIVITY DISTRICT COMPARISON OF MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY with EMPLOYMENT PERCENT I 10 105 100 s_ 95 “V s/ / NX 90 FMAMJJASON ___ Adjustment for seasonal variation All but four industries represented in the index show marked seasonal, or month-to-month fluctuations, such as recession in midsummer and midwinter and expansion in spring and autumn months. These fluctuations reflect an uneven distribution of production through the year and render the analy sis of current changes extremely diffi cult. For example, for the entire manufacturing industry the extreme points deviate from the monthly aver age of 100 in this manner: 102 for March, 96 for July, 104 for October and 99 for January and December. Variations in most individual lines are much more pronounced. Obviously, it is necessary to make some adjustment for these swings in order to show cur rently whether there is any improve ment or decline in each industry be yond the usual seasonal changes. There are several methods for re moving the influence of these seasonal ups and downs, but the one used in the present index is known technically as the median-ratio-to-moving-average method; it has been used by the Fed eral Reserve Board for some years and found quite satisfactory for prac tical purposes. A set of twelve sea sonal indexes, one for each month in the year, was computed for each indus try. These indexes measure the output in each month in relation to the aver age for a typical year and resemble those shown on the chart for manu facturing as a whole. In industries in which there was clear evidence that the character of the seasonal move ments was changing, some months gaining, others losing over a period of years, a separate set of monthly indexes was derived for each year. In computing these measures of sea sonal variations, allowance was made for unusual circumstances in the in dustry, such as labor stoppages, and Page Four for the general trend of production over a period of years. Once these factors are computed, the removal of seasonal influences is quite simple. For example, the actual index of hosiery output for October 1931, was 113.7 per cent of the 1923-25 average, while the typical seasonal factor for that month is 110.0; divid ing the former by the latter, a new index, 103.4, which is free from sea sonal effects, is obtained. The pro cedure has been followed in all indi vidual lines, except those which showed no conclusive evidence of the presence of normal seasonal variations. The total index and the group in dexes are available in two forms, the one without adjustment for seasonal variation, the other with such adjust ment. They are given in tables at the end of this description. Importance and combination of individual figures After all necessary adjustments were completed, the indexes for individual industries were combined into com posite indexes for groups, and then into the final index for manufacturing as a whole. This combination has been effected by the use of weights, or percentages, showing the relative importance of one industry to another and in relation to all lines included in the index. These weights have been derived from figures for value added by the process of manufacture in the industries represented, as reported in the biennial censuses of 1923 and 1925. In order to make the weights apply more precisely to the three-year base period, value added by manufacture for the two census years in most cases was adjusted for 1924, a year for which there was no census of manu factures. The proportionate importance of industries which are represented in the index is shown by Table IV, which follows, together with the sources of the data for each industry. The application of the index The critical use of the index for over a year has demonstrated its effec tiveness in measuring monthly changes in the manufacturing activity of this district. The likeness of fluctuation between the index and some of the re lated data, shown on the chart given above, is quite pronounced. Even in the case of factory employment, which has undergone many changes since the war, the relationship is apparent, though the trend varies from that of manufacturing output. Prior to 1925 the index of factory employment fol lowed very closely the trend of produc tion, but since that time it has notice ably dropped below production. The fact that this spread has narrowed down in 1930 and 1931 is due mainly to a more pronounced curtailment of output than of employment, which is characteristic of depression periods. The figures in the following table show differences in the trend of fac tory production, employment and pay rolls for the United States as a whole. Census year Volume of output Employ ment Payrolls 1914........... 1919........... 1921........... 1923........... 192.5........... 1927........... 1929........... 79.3 100.0 79.4 122.0 127.9 128.6 144.3* 76.6 100.0 77.2 97.5 93.1 92.8 97.9 38.9 100.0 78.4 105.2 102.6 103.7 111.4 * Preliminary. The fact that employment has ac tually declined since 1919 is rather unusual in view of the remarkable expansion during this period of stlch enterprises as the motor, electrical, air craft and rayon industries, the pro- Table IV DATA USED IN THE INDEX MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES—PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Industry and group Relative impor tance Series Manufacturing industries (com bined) 100.00 Iron and steel and their products: Crude iron and steel and rolled products Blast furnaces........................... Steel works and rolling mills. Source 21.26 13.31 Secondary metal products......... Foundries and machine shops. Electrical machinery and ap paratus Textiles and their products: Silk manufactures........................ Woolen goods................................. Woolen and worsted goods.. . Pig iron production. . Output of steel and products Iron castings pro duction Steel castings pro duction Payrolls...................... 0.86 12.45 7.95 1.64 1.04 0.60 I University of Pennsylvania, Dept, of f Industrial Research 6.31 Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Wool consumption.. Machinery activity. Machinery activity. 1.45 2.03 Payrolls...................... Active spindle hours Carpets and rugs.................. 26.00 7.78 5.71 3.68 2.23 3.85 3.32 0.53 Production. 5.65 4.89 Production. 0.76 Pieces cut in Phila delphia 3.01 Machinery activity. Cotton goods—incl. small wares Knit goods. Hosiery. . Underwear. . Men’s clothing. Transportation enuipment: Motor vehicles.............................. Motor vehicles—bodies & parts Locomotives and cars............... Ship and boat building............... Building materials: Cement............................................ 7.91 Payrolls. Payrolls. Payrolls. Payrolls. Brick...................................... Portland cement pro duction ................. Production................ Lumber and its products. Production. Food and allied products: Bread and bakery products. Ice cream.................................. Meat packing.......................... Animals slaughtered......... Sugar refining. Canning and preserving. Tobacco manufactures: Leather and its products: Boots and shoes............................ Leather, tanned, curried and finished Paper and printing: Paper and wood pulp.................. Printing and publishing......... Chemicals and allied products: Explosives................................... Paints and varnishes............... Petroleum refining................... Coke by-product.......................... Radio and musical instruments: Electric power: 3.06 2.79 5.13 Cattle........................... Calves........................... Sheep............................ Swine............................ Receipts at Philadel phia Payrolls........................ Chewing and snuff.. Cigars......................... Production.................. Goat and kid leather production Production.................. Payrolls. Production.............. Payrolls.................... Production: Gasoline.............. Kerosene............. Gas and fuel oil. Lubricants.......... Asphalt................ Production.............. Payrolls.................... Production.............. gressive shortening of working hours, and of the increase in population. The causes of this disparity in the trend of factory production and employment may be attributed in large measure to the invention and installation of new 1.53 1.92 2.93 1.53 10.98 9.46 Payrolls. Payrolls. Iron Age American Iron and Steel Institute Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank 3.69 1.48 1.51 0.32 0.06 0.05 1.08 0.46 2.32 3.86 0.09 3.77 3.12 1.52 1.60 10.29 1.73 8.56 4.03 0.60 1.12 1.79 0.87 0.19 0.38 0.29 0.06 0.52 2.09 1.00 Silk Association of America Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce Philadelphia Federal Philadelphia Federal Philadelphia Federal /Philadelphia Federal IN. J. Department of Reserve Reserve Reserve Reserve Labor Bank Bank Bank Bank Bureau of Mines, Dept, of Commerce Census of Manufactures Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Census of Manufactures Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank iDepartment of Agriculture, Bureau of Animal Industry Weekly Statistical Sugar Trade Jour. New Jersey Department of Labor Internal Revenue, Treasury Dept. Internal Revenue, Treasury Dept. Bureau of the Census Census of Manufactures Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Bureau of Mines, Dept, of Commerce Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Bureau of Mines, Dept, of Commerce Bureau of Mines, Dept, of Commerce Bureau of Mines, Dept, of Commerce Bureau of Mines, Dept, of Commerce Bureau of Mines, Dept, of Commerce Bureau of Mines, Dept, of Commerce Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank machinery, scientific management, in creased efficiency of workers, and probably economies effected through mergers. Fluctuations in payrolls agree more closely than employment with actual production, as is to be expected since they usually indicate changes in the rate of operations. The chart also gives comparisons of factory productive activity in this dis trict with the production index of the Federal Reserve Board which is rep resentative of manufacturing activity in the country. It is evident that there exists a striking similarity, certainly in major swings, between the two in dexes and the degree of this corre spondence is quite high. Changes in the national index in many instances precede those in the local index, owing probably to differences in the various stages and types of manufactures which compose each index. Variation in the two indexes indicates the impor tance of regional studies of productive activity, which supplement national in dexes, furnishing more specific infor mation concerning business conditions and requirements for bank credit in various districts. Comparison of the manufacturing activity index with freight car loadings of merchandise (less-than-car-load) and miscellaneous commodities com bined in the Allegheny shipping area disclose an exceedingly high degree of likeness in their trends over a period of years as well as in monthly fluctua tions, even though figures for ship ments cover a much larger area than do those for production. Changes in productive activity seem to occur somewhat later than changes in the shipment of commodities, owing prob ably to the incoming volume of those commodities which are used for further manufacture. The closeness of this relationship is all the more striking in view of the rapid develop ments during recent years in the trans portation of goods by truck, satisfac tory figures for which are not yet available. Commodities, especially those in earlier stages of manufacture, con tinue to be carried by railroad freight, certainly in the case of long distances, and thus changes in this movement furnish a valuable; supplement to the study of productive activity. Careful tests and comparisons with other indicators, therefore, show that the index of productive activity in the manufacturing industry of this district provides a useful measurement for both specific and general purposes. It brings together isolated figures for many individual lines for the first time, and suggests a further need for like studies by geographical divisions in order to measure more effectively di verse changes and trends in various parts of the country. Page Five Index of Productive Activity in Manufacturing in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve District 1923-25 average = 100 ALL MANUFACTURING Without seasonal adjustment Adjusted for seasonal variation 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 100.1 101.1 101.3 97.4 93.8 88.9 84.5 87.5 91.4 96.6 96.2 98.5 98.6 101.0 101.8 100.4 102.6 101.5 99.8 100.8 103.2 109.5 107.2 105.9 104.6 107.6 108.6 105.9 104.8 105.1 102.8 106.3 110.6 114.5 112.1 109.0 104.7 107.5 107.5 104.5 103.9 103.1 100.6 102.9 104.5 103.8 101.9 98.9 98.5 103.5 100.5 96.7 98.0 101.1 97.9 101.2 105.4 109.1 107.2 102.3 102.2 107.9 108.4 109.0 111.5 112.9 110.4 116.0 116.8 116.3 110.0 102.8 102.6 104.3 103.5 101.1 99.1 95.2 90.6 93.4 97.5 97.8 90.6 80.0 78.1 81.9 81.8 83.1 79.8 75.8 73.1 75.8 76.5 75.8 72.3p Dec... 96.1 97.5 102.2 103.0 107.0 106.6 101.5 101.4 103.4 104.7 104.4 102.9 Avg... 102.6 94.8 102.7 107.7 103.7 101.8 110.4 1923 1931 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 96.2 95.4 99.1 102.5 108.2 109.5 107.5 104.3 104.8 101.5 102.8 101.0 99.8 99.1 98.9 97.1 94.8 91.2 89.1 89.7 92.2 93.2 94.1 96.9 98.9 98.9 99.2 100.1 103.7 103.7 105.1 103.4 103.9 105.8 105.4 104.9 105.7 105.7 106.4 106.2 105.9 106.5 107.4 107.3 109.8 109.9 110.1 108.7 106.4 106.1 106.2 105.9 105.6 104.3 104.4 103.2 102.5 99.6 99.9 99.8 100.4 102.4 99.7 98.2 99.2 101.5 101.2 101.0 103.6 105.0 105.5 104.5 104.4 106.9 107.3 110.9 113.3 113.0 113.8 114.8 114.3 111.7 108.4 105.5 104.8 103.5 102.7 102.8 100.2 95.0 93.1 92.3 95.2 93.4 88.8 81.9 79.5 81.1 81.2 85.1 80.8 75.7 75.2 75.8 74.7 72.9 71.0p 96.3 Jan. .. Feb.. . Apr.. . May. . June.. July. . Aug. . Sept. . Oct. .. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. p—preli mi nary METALS Without seasonal adjustment Adjusted for seasonal variation 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 Dec... 90.2 93.1 99.4 98.3 108.9 108.2 97.7 104.9 106.4 109.7 109.4 108.2 103.3 106.7 106.8 104.0 95.2 82.5 71.7 78.5 83.4 88.5 88.6 99.5 104.7 106.1 105.2 102.9 101.8 100.8 94.9 98.9 101.4 112.2 112.6 116.1 113.9 119.4 121.2 118.2 114.7 116.4 108.2 113.4 118.4 125.4 120.7 119.9 107.2 111.2 111.5 108.6 104.2 104.7 95.0 101.1 98.5 97.2 95.7 95.2 93.6 108.0 106.9 102.0 105.0 103.7 98.3 111.5 111.6 119.5 116.9 112.4 113.2 119.4 119.3 121.6 127.3 127.8 125.8 137.6 129.0 127.2 122.3 112.5 117.1 117.7 115.5 114.7 111.7 103.8 94.7 97.8 97.4 92.5 83.8 73.5 Avg... 102.9 92.4 104.8 117.5 102.5 107.5 123.6 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 88.1 89.6 93.9 92.9 107.8 113.2 110.5 112.0 113.7 107.4 108.1 101.5 101.2 102.8 101.2 98.4 94.4 86.1 81.0 83.8 89.3 86.2 87.2 93.3 102.9 102.4 99.7 98.2 101.7 104.8 106.8 104.3 107.4 109.2 111.4 109.6 113.6 115.5 115.6 114.5 115.6 118.8 119.6 117.0 123.1 122.1 120.0 115.2 108.2 107.9 107.2 107.4 104.5 106.4 103.0 101.6 100.4 94.3 95.1 94.0 95.9 105.5 103.4 101.8 104.3 104.4 104.9 109.5 111.6 116.0 116.7 115.3 117.2 117.1 116.4 123.1 127.0 126.6 131.0 131.7 128.4 123.3 122.3 118.0 121.4 115.9 113.1 117.1 112.0 102.8 98.5 93.2 96.5 89.4 83.6 77.2 77.0 71.8 70.3 78.3 68.5 60.7 59.1 54.6 52.8 49.2 46.2 101.7 Feb.. . July. . 1931 74.2 72.9 71.8 76.6 68.2 61.2 57.0 57.5 53.6 51.3 46.4 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. TEXTILES Without seasonal adjustment Adjusted for seasonal variation 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 106.1 102.3 100.7 91.5 84.9 81.7 75.3 78.3 87.3 98.3 96.1 98.6 102.7 106.5 107.4 103.2 109.0 106.5 104.9 105.8 106.4 111.4 110.0 106.9 108.5 109.0 108.6 99.1 96.6 97.6 94.1 94.3 100.2 102.6 103.1 103.5 105.0 109.9 106.7 98.5 100.0 97.3 98.3 97.2 101.3 101.7 103.5 102.2 105.4 111.7 102.6 91.5 91.4 96.9 92.9 90.6 99.6 104.3 102.8 100.5 105.0 111.0 110.7 103.9 106.0 108.0 101.2 104.0 109.1 108.9 105.2 97.0 102.2 104.3 100.4 89.6 82.4 82.0 75.7 75.4 84.6 89.2 90.5 80.6 80.1 89.3 86.9 85.6 81.9 79.3 77.8 83.1 88.0 86.4 81.6 Dec... 105.2 105.1 107.1 106.1 106.3 104.0 98.8 93.9 95.3 99.7 97.9 98.6 Avg... 101.5 91.8 106.7 101.4 101.8 99.2 105.8 1923 1931 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 100.1 98.0 100.9 106.9 108.4 108.0 107.0 101.7 99.8 96.6 96.4 96.9 100.2 95.2 94.8 92.5 86.3 84.5 81.7 85.0 90.7 94.9 93.9 96.6 98.0 98.9 101.8 105.0 111.5 110.7 113.1 113.7 109.1 108.8 108.3 105.0 104.5 101.4 103.5 101.6 99.1 100.9 100.1 100.4 101.6 100.6 101.5 102.2 101.2 101.8 102.0 101.6 103.0 99.8 103.9 102.9 102.0 99.8 101.4 101.7 101.7 103.5 98.3 95.1 94.6 99.0 98.4 95.5 99.5 102.5 101.0 100.7 101.0 102.6 106.3 108.1 109.8 110.0 107.7 109.5 108.6 106.4 102.6 97.2 98.6 96.6 96.6 93.3 85.8 83.8 80.5 79.6 84.0 87.0 88.1 80.8 77.1 82.3 83.2 90.1 83.7 80.6 82.7 87.4 87.3 84.4 79.7 1931 88.1 Feb.. . July. . Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. TRANSPORTATION EQUIPMENT Without seasonal adjustment 1923 1924 Adjusted for seasonal variation 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 Dec... 112.0 117.8 126.0 126.9 134.5 127.1 126.2 123.3 114.4 107.6 112.5 113.4 84.3 82.5 85.9 90.6 85.8 82.3 78.7 74.4 73.3 78.5 79.6 85.1 84.6 88.2 97.4 97.3 102.9 104.1 100.8 94.4 99.9 106.7 97.9 102.8 105.3 106.3 110.1 114.5 111.7 104.3 97.0 98.4 96.2 98.0 95.4 100.3 100.3 105.0 105.2 99.8 97.8 94.8 91.6 90.0 86.8 80.8 79.9 78.6 74.6 77.5 72.0 72.0 74.0 75.2 71.0 70.6 72.1 71.5 72.3 76.7 80.4 95.6 103.6 109.5 100.6 94.8 91.9 85.1 89.1 90.0 90.5 95.9 91.9 92.8 101.8 104.8 102.7 91.6 83.0 76.2 79.1 75.8 70.4 68.2 Avg... 120.1 81.8 98.1 103.1 92.6 73.3 93.9 86.5 Feb.. . July - • Page Six 1923 1931 62.8 63.4 62.8 66.5 61.6 53.8 49.7 50.1 51.1 56.4 60.1 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 114.2 114.7 117.3 118.2 131.4 123.6 128.2 125.4 119.9 113.7 119.6 114.5 85.8 80.4 80.3 84.5 82.8 79.9 80.4 76.7 77.1 83.0 84.4 86.6 86.4 85.8 90.8 89.9 98.4 100.7 103.5 98.6 105.6 112.8 103.7 104.1 107.2 103.5 102.8 106.2 107.0 100.5 99.1 102.0 101.5 103.2 100.7 100.8 102.0 103.5 98.6 93.2 93.5 91.9 93.6 92.6 91.8 85.4 84.4 79.2 75.8 75.7 67.2 66.8 70.6 72.9 72.5 73.6 78.7 75.5 76.8 78.1 82.0 93.0 96.5 101.3 95.8 92.1 93.6 88.2 94.5 94.8 95.4 96.3 93.5 91.5 95.4 97.3 97.6 89.1 84.7 78.2 83.9 79.6 73.1 68.3 64.5 63.1 59.1 61.9 60.7 52.5 50.8 51.9 54.4 59.2 62.9 FOODS Without seasonal adjustment ' 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 Jan. .. Feb.. . Mar. . Apr.. . May . June.. July.. Aug.. . Sept. . Oct. .. Nov. . Dec... 85.7 84.3 90.7 93.7 95.2 96.0 97.7 100.0 107.5 109.3 100.0 100.8 98.0 102.0 100.9 100.9 104.3 98.2 101.3 104.6 107.9 107.2 101.6 98.3 100.2 99.8 99.4 99.8 102.4 100.3 97.0 99.6 108.3 106.6 100.4 100.1 95.1 94.1 93.6 91.1 93.0 93.8 101.0 112.3 135.5 131.8 117.0 111.6 107.5 108.9 111.5 107.4 108.7 104.2 100.9 112.2 112.7 113.9 95.6 92.5 93.3 92.4 93.7 94.8 92.8 92.2 88.5 87.9 90.2 91.8 93.4 92.1 91.9 92.2 94.9 95.0 93.7 90.6 93.4 95.2 99.8 99.3 93.5 91.5 87.7 87.0 87.8 89.1 94.3 86.4 89.0 91.9 90.9 89.1 83.9 79.6 Avg... 96.7 102.1 101.2 105.8 106.3 91.9 94.3 Adjusted for seasonal variation 88.1 1931 76.9 81.0 81.7 79.4 79.9 79.2 81.1 83.9 80.8 80.8 76.3p 1923 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 89.7 86.3 92.5 97.1 101.0 102.3 100.2 96.2 98.5 102.2 98.6 101.5 99.8 103.8 103.9 105.2 109.5 105.1 104.9 100.8 98.8 99.3 100.0 99.5 103.0 102.2 102.0 103.8 108.6 105.7 99.1 93.5 98.6 98.0 99.3 104.1 98.3 96.5 95.3 93.6 94.9 96.8 101.9 111.4 119.6 117.2 116.9 114.3 110.7 111.8 114.4 112.0 113.9 110.1 104.4 105.2 100.2 102.7 95.3 94.6 96.4 94.2 95.4 96.2 94.8 94.9 90.2 86.0 85.8 88.2 95.3 95.0 94.6 93.6 95.0 96.8 95.7 93.2 94.9 92.3 94.2 94.3 93.9 93.0 89.9 88.9 89.0 90.1 94.2 87.8 89.9 89.5 86.4 85.2 87.1 81.4 1931 78.1 81.2 82.2 80.5 80.3 80.0 81.3 83.6 77.8 78.4 76.6p TOBACCO Without seasonal adjustment Adjusted for seasonal variation 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 Jan. .. Feb. . . Mar. . Apr. . . May. . June.. July . . Aug.. . Sept. . Oct. .. Nov. . Dec... 96.1 91.7 94.1 99.9 96.1 110.0 99.9 103.4 119.9 114.6 112.1 89.1 91.8 84.2 93.6 80.4 93.8 95.6 102.8 105.3 107.6 109.6 109.3 91.3 84.8 90.4 94.4 94.4 100.7 106.2 106.2 96.6 110.8 126.5 115.2 82.6 80.7 95.9 96.5 100.2 106.9 112.7 114.8 112.7 117.6 127.6 130.1 87.6 96.1 98.3 98.8 92.0 109.5 115.5 122.8 110.9 133.6 130.7 133.3 78.9 96.5 96.5 103.5 96.5 105.6 121.0 123.3 113.7 131.9 138.4 136.7 84.6 87.2 96.8 107.3 118.8 116.4 125.8 131.7 131.3 141.2 149.7 139.4 89.5 87.0 102.9 96.1 101.9 113.2 117.0 114.8 113.6 114.0 127.2 120.3 66.0 76.7 82.9 95.2 94.8 98.6 110.0 98.2 97.8 100.1 108.3 105.4 Avg... 102.2 97.1 100.7 106.9 110.0 112.4 119.6 106.2 1923 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 104.1 102.6 100.0 109.7 98.9 105.8 97.1 101.3 108.1 100.8 100.6 98.1 100.5 95.2 99.5 88.2 96.6 91.9 98.9 103.1 96.9 95.6 97.9 100.5 98.1 101.1 100.3 103.5 102.7 101.1 100.3 94.7 99.8 107.5 100.6 97.2 94.5 106.2 103.5 110.0 109.0 107.3 106.5 110.4 106.0 107.6 109.8 110.8 115.3 108.9 107.1 101.0 112.8 110.0 111.9 108.6 114.4 108.4 112.5 107.8 117.0 110.6 112.2 105.9 108.8 114.1 112.3 110.4 113.1 112.9 115.4 115.5 105.7 113.4 116.3 130.5 119.9 118.6 120.0 126.2 121.0 121.2 117.7 122.1 105.3 122.0 104.2 111.8 116.5 110.4 104.7 109.3 97.7 102.3 101.6 89.9 92.7 98.2 103.2 104.0 101.5 103.8 89.7 94.1 85.9 87.2 89.1 BUILDING MATERIALS Without seasonal adjustment Adjusted for seasonal variation 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 Jan.*.. Feb... Mar. . Apr.. . May. . June.. July. . Aug... Sept. . Oct. .. Nov. . Dec.. . 82.0 83.2 91.2 95.8 104.3 109.1 105.2 111.0 107.8 104.8 105.6 98.2 92.9 101.0 101.8 100.4 98.7 98.0 103.1 106.2 99.7 98.8 101.3 96.3 88.4 97.0 97.2 99.7 99.7 104.0 107.7 103.2 103.0 106.5 101.2 96.2 91.0 92.8 94.3 97.5 101.8 103.6 103.3 103.4 104.8 106.2 103.2 93.3 83.7 85.9 89.1 100.1 96.8 100.1 99.1 99.0 98.0 94.1 90.3 82.0 69.6 71.6 74.6 78.9 85.0 92.0 90.3 94.7 91.1 91.2 86.2 81.6 74.0 75.6 75.0 81.3 85.3 92.3 92.2 94.7 90.4 87.2 80.9 71.3 65.0 65.9 68.6 72.8 77.3 75.4 71.8 72.3 65.5 57.7 52.2 42.7 36.5 40.4 43.0 47.7 49.8 47.7 44.1 47.5 44.7 42.1 38.4 Avg... 99.9 99.9 100.3 99.6 93.2 83.9 83.4 65.6 1923 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 92.4 87.1 93.6 97.1 104.7 106.9 101.9 104.4 104.7 101.1 102.9 100.4 104.1 106.1 104.5 101.7 98.6 95.8 98.8 99.4 96.3 94.8 98.4 99.4 99.1 102.6 101.5 101.0 99.8 101.4 101.8 97.3 99.3 101.1 98.8 100.0 103.7 100.9 100.0 98.7 101.1 99.0 97.4 97.0 99.8 100.2 100.6 97.8 97.2 96.2 96.6 101.2 95.5 93.6 92.6 90.9 91.0 88.7 88.4 87.2 82.2 81.6 82.7 79.9 82.7 84.6 83.5 85.2 84.6 85.7 85.8 87.2 87.1 86.6 83.4 82.3 83.1 85.4 85.5 84.2 84.0 82.1 81.0 76.9 76.9 75.9 77.1 73.3 74.4 69.2 65.6 63.6 60.2 54.4 52.6 47.0 44.1 47.9 49.6 47.8 46.9 42.9 40.3 41.3 40.6 39.4 38.7 LEATHER PRODUCTS Without seasonal adjustment_______________ 1923 Adjusted for seasonal variation 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 Jan. .. 120.7 Feb.. . 128.4 Mar. . 133.8 Apr.. . 123.9 May. . 123.4 June. . 120.8 July. . 108.0 Aug... 111.6 Sept. . 112.6 Oct. .. 107.8 Nov. . 102.2 Dec.. . 102.4 89.5 91.5 93.5 85.7 82.6 72.1 63.9 74.1 84.7 92.4 86.8 89.8 94.0 104.8 104.8 97.8 101.4 89.8 82.6 99.4 103.0 106.7 102.6 111.2 116.7 126.4 125.0 117.2 111.0 101.2 95.1 108.9 111.8 113.2 108.4 113.6 121.3 125.7 117.8 112.0 108.4 114.1 104.0 122.5 126.9 128.3 115.3 121.9 129.4 129.8 126.1 121.0 112.1 123.3 112.7 122.8 133.9 126.6 112.6 113.9 117.4 128.8 123.6 118.9 114.2 127.3 121.5 128.8 137.0 148.5 131.9 133.2 128.6 134.4 137.3 127.8 118.2 117.5 112.3 124.4 133.6 123.0 105.5 98.6 104.2 Jan. 122.7 Feb. 132.8 Mar. 131.2 Apr. 120.1 May 110.3 June 111.8 July 126.4 Aug. 129.2 Sept. 108.1 Oct. 98.2p Nov. 119.1 117.9 121.1 120.4 121.7 131.3 128.5 117.6 112.9 104.7 104.2 99.7 87.6 83.2 84.6 83.6 81.2 78.3 76.6 90.3 95.3 94.8 96.8 99.9 97.5 99.0 104.7 103.0 104.0 105.8 108.7 110.9 115.2 115.4 117.3 111.5 107.2 113.0 111.9 110.8 110.1 112.8 112.2 115.2 115.5 111.8 113.8 115.9 118.8 119.0 121.6 121.2 122.4 120.7 122.4 124.3 121.2 122.9 123.1 112.8 120.8 120.9 120.9 125.5 129.4 134.6 127.3 126.5 140.1 137.9 134.6 123.5 126.0 134.6 129.9 129.9 119.3 124.6 123.4 123.2 116.4 110.2 100.1 115.2 129.6 133.1 132.0 112.4 123.9 125.1 119.0 102.1 102.7p Avg.. 83.9 99.8 112.4 118.2 122.0 127.6 121.8 . 116.3 Dec. 77.7 84.6 89.7 88.1 87.8 122.4 125.6 127.2 121.8 124.6 119.6 117.8 114.9 99.9 Page Seven PAPER AND PRINTING Without seasonal adjustment Adjusted for seasonal variation 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 98.7 102.2 102.7 103.6 101.7 100.8 95.6 93.1 97.8 101.9 102.2 105.4 102.0 100.3 104.0 105.7 102.8 98.0 102.0 98.6 99.8 105.3 105.6 107.5 104.4 106.8 107.9 109.4 107.0 106.1 106.4 107.1 107.1 110.1 111.0 114.1 108.7 107.9 111.6 110.5 109.9 110.4 107.1 107.0 108.3 110.2 112.8 113.7 114.6 114.0 115.8 115.3 115.6 113.8 109.9 111.7 112.9 116.6 117.9 116.2 115.8 118.0 119.0 118.4 119.5 117.8 109.2 115.4 122.8 121.6 120.5 118.0 115.9 122.3 122.8 120.4 115.1 112.2 106.9 108.2 109.8 111.8 107.7 109.2 104.8 107.4 107.5 105.7 103.2 97.6 91.9 93.1 96.1 94.9 92.3 Dec... 92.0 93.4 97.9 99.8 103.2 100.7 97.4 88.3 92.7 96.3 101.2 99.8 Avg... 96.9 100.5 102.6 108.1 109.8 114.5 118.0 1923 1931 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 92.2 93.4 96.0 98.1 102.4 101.7 100.5 90.5 93.3 95.2 100.4 98.8 98.9 102.2 100.7 101.7 100.9 101.8 98.7 95.5 98.7 100.7 101.4 104.3 102.1 100.3 101.9 103.7 102.0 99.0 105.4 101.2 100.7 104.0 104.7 106.5 104.6 106.8 105.8 107.5 106.1 107.1 109.8 109.9 107.9 108.8 110.1 113.0 108.8 107.9 109.3 108.5 109.0 111.6 110.6 109.8 109.2 109.0 111.8 112.6 114.8 114.0 113.6 113.2 114.6 114.9 113.4 114.7 113.9 115.3 116.9 115.0 115.9 118.0 116.7 116.3 118.5 119.0 112.7 118.5 123.9 120.2 119.6 116.9 116.1 122.3 120.4 118.2 114.1 113.4 110.4 111.1 110.8 110.5 106.8 108.1 104.9 107.4 105.4 103.7 102.4 98.6 94.9 95.6 97.0 93.9 91.5 113.5 Feb... Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. CHEMICALS Without seasonal adjustment Adjusted for seasonal variation 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 97.6 99.6 103.7 103.4 104.9 104.0 95.9 100.6 98.3 98.8 104.8 103.6 100.9 103.7 102.9 103.3 105.8 102.9 104.7 105.3 92.9 93.4 98.7 97.4 101.2 106.9 112.7 112.9 115.1 116.4 118.7 114.9 116.0 120.6 122.3 118.6 112.5 109.3 112.9 112.1 114.1 105.3 107.6 110.6 111.2 116.8 114.4 112.6 111.9 114.1 108.7 115.3 118.1 115.9 112.3 114.6 121.9 120.3 120.0 117.6 117.5 118.3 115.2 119.4 124.2 125.7 117.6 123.0 127.0 126.5 124.9 122.7 119.3 117.5 116.1 120.1 120.8 117.3 112.3 116.4 113.1 113.2 109.5 104.8 101.3 103.2 104.5 103.4 111.7 104.3 103.1 100.3 103.4 102.4 107.3p Dec... 93.6 95.2 93.6 102.5 98.6 99.3 98.5 96.4 96.2 96.4 100.3 103.1 Avg... 97.8 101.3 101.0 114.7 111.6 115.9 121.8 1923 1931 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 93.5 93.2 93.7 101.9 98.8 99.5 99.8 97.9 98.5 96.5 99.1 101.3 97.5 97.8 103.9 102.7 104.6 103.6 96.9 102.1 100.9 99.1 103.6 102.1 101.0 102 3 102.7 102.5 105.9 103.3 106.3 106.1 95.3 93.0 97.5 96.3 102.3 105.7 112.5 111.6 114.6 115.7 121.3 114.8 118.2 119.8 121.2 118.6 114.6 109.4 112.7 110.6 112.6 104.4 109.8 110.5 112.3 115.6 113.6 113.3 114.2 114.9 108.4 113.9 116.3 114.9 114.3 114.3 123.0 118.5 119.5 118.6 120.7 119.3 114.7 117.6 121.8 124.9 120.0 122.4 128.2 124.3 124.3 124.0 122.5 117.8 115.4 118.1 118.3 116.5 114.4 115.8 114.2 111.2 109.1 106.3 103.9 103.8 104.1 101.9 109.4 103.5 104.8 99.7 104.1 100.7 106.9p 115.0 Feb. . July. . Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. ELECTRIC POWER Without seasonal adjustment Adjusted for seasonal variation 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 104.0 102.9 97.9 96.7 92.2 91.0 89.5 90.0 96.0 103.7 104.8 114.0 115.2 114.3 109.1 108.2 104.4 108.4 109.6 110.8 116.6 124.7 125.4 133.6 130.2 134.2 130.5 122.1 117.1 124.4 122.3 126.7 133.8 141.4 149.3 152.8 148.1 147.9 144.8 139.4 134.6 137.1 131.4 138.0 140.0 146.5 151.6 156.0 152.7 153.3 158.0 155.6 149.2 155.2 158.3 163.8 166.3 181.7 178.9 175.2 180.8 190.6 183.2 189.0 182.0 176.2 175.9 186.1 189.8 212.2 209.9 213.4 212.2 203.3 202.8 199.1 190.4 182.7 173.7 176.2 187.1 196.7 193.6 199.6 193.5 193.5 191.5 193.2 187.5 182.9 182.2 182.8 190.0 197.4 191.1 Dec... 84.1 85.1 85.0 83.0 82.3 81.5 80.4 83.6 85.2 93.7 96.0 98.8 Avg... 86.6 98.6 115.0 132.1 143.0 162.4 190.8 1923 1931 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 79.3 80.3 83.3 84.7 88.5 85.8 86.5 88.0 86.9 91.0 92.3 92.3 98.1 97.1 96.0 98.7 99.1 95.8 96.2 94.7 98.0 100.7 100.8 106.5 108.7 107.8 107.0 110.4 112.3 114.1 117.8 116.6 119.0 121.1 120.6 124.9 122.8 126.6 127.9 124.6 125.9 130.9 131.5 133.4 136.5 137.3 143.6 142.8 139.7 139.5 142.0 142.2 144.7 144.3 141.3 145.3 142.9 142.2 145.8 145.8 144.1 144.6 154.9 158.8 160.4 163.4 170.2 172.4 169.7 176.4 172.0 163.7 170.6 179.8 179.6 192.9 195.7 185.5 189.1 195.9 193.7 206.1 201.8 199.4 200.2 191.8 198.8 203.2 204.7 192.3 186.8 185.5 190.9 191.0 186.2 186.5 182.5 182.5 187.7 197.1 201.6 192.5 195.9 192.4 193.9 191.7 183.8 193.1 Feb July . Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. RADIO AND MUSICAL INSTRUMENTS Without seasonal adjustment Adjusted for seasonal variation 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 139.0 136.4 126.5 104.0 104.9 103.5 96.4 100.0 109.8 114.2 122.9 124.4 89.1 59.1 43.3 37.5 41.9 46.5 42.3 83.4 88.9 116.3 122.9 110.0 94.1 99.1 101.6 100.5 97.1 103.7 114.5 108.5 111.5 151.9 164.9 140.3 125.9 120.1 116.4 115.4 107.7 108.5 119.0 122.2 131.9 124.9 135.4 166.9 154.4 151.2 123.2 110.9 106.1 126.7 156.1 175.2 197.1 201.8 193.7 155.2 104.9 120.6 99.2 112.1 169.7 173.2 215.6 276.9 248.4 227.1 130.9 133.6 108.3 86.8 77.6 76.5 83.2 85.9 131.8 214.8 309.2 356.8 222.8 130.4 108.8 93.4 72.4 88.6 74.1 67.3 72.8 81.3 82.6 109.6 104.9 Dec... 100 0 101.9 102.5 103.9 101.7 105.7 105.7 97.0 120.6 122.2 135.9 139.4 Avg... 111.4 115.2 73.4 115.6 124.5 154.3 167.7 157.0 1923 1931 T„n Feb July Page Eight Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 98.0 107.3 119.2 131.5 125.6 124.4 117.4 90.7 109.6 99.3 108.7 119.1 136.3 143.6 147.1 131.6 129.5 121.8 107.1 93.5 99.8 92.8 98.3 106.3 87.4 62.2 50.3 47.5 51.7 54.7 47.0 77.9 80.8 94.6 98.3 94.0 92.3 104.3 118.1 127.2 119.9 122.0 127.2 101.4 101.4 123.5 131.9 119.9 123.4 126.4 135.3 146.1 133.0 127.6 132.2 114.2 119.9 101.5 108.3 142.6 151.4 159.2 143.3 140.4 131.0 149.1 173.4 163.7 179.2 164.1 155.0 132.6 102.8 126.9 115.3 141.9 209.5 203.8 239.6 258.8 225.8 184.6 104.7 114.2 106.2 91.4 90.2 96.8 102.7 101.1 146.4 200.7 281.1 290.1 178.2 111.5 106.7 98.3 84.2 112.2 91.5 79.2 80.9 76.0 75.1 89.1 83.9
@FedFRASER