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OF PHILADELPHIA Headquarters Have Human Problems Inflation: Gainers and Losers BUSINESS REVIEW is p roduced in the D epartm ent of R e se arch. Ronald B. W illiam s is Art D irector. Th e au th ors will be g lad to receive co m m e n ts on th eir articles. R e q u e sts fo r additional co p ie s sh o uld be a d d resse d to P u b lic Inform ation, Federal R e serve B an k of P h ilad elp h ia, Philad elp h ia, P e n n sylvan ia 19101. Local government and business leaders throughout the region are disturbed by this loss of headquarters because of the possible adverse impact on the area’s tax base and employment Headquarters Have Human Problems The chart sh ow s the rate of increase or decrease in the num ber of head quarters in each area, 1956-1968*. CHART 1 Per Cent Change 60 40 20 0 -20 -4 0 -6 0 * Data refer to the 750 largest manufacturing and non manufacturing corporations in the nation. Source: Fortune magazine. opportunities. One group of businessmen is particularly dismayed because it has lost income as the number of large headquarters has de clined. The group encompasses suppliers of Philadelphia’s major business services— banks, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA 1 References to Philadelphia throughout the article are to the Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area. It in cludes the counties of Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Mont gomery, and Philadelphia in Pennsylvania; and the counties of Burlington, Camden, and Gloucester in New Jersey. 2 A more detailed discussion of Philadelphia’s chang ing headquarters climate is found in the following Business Review articles: “ Headquarters: Centers of Corporate Control,” May, 1967; “ Philadelphia’s Desire to Acquire,” September, 1967; and “ Where Corporate Headquarters Feel at Home,” May, 1968. BUSINESS REVIEW P H IL A D E L P H IA ’ S H E A D QUARTERS’ LOSS EXCEEDS T H A T O F M O ST M AJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS. by Elizabeth P. Deutermann Between 1956 and 1965, Philadelphia lost its major corporate headquarters at a faster rate than any of the nation’s other large metropol itan areas.1 In addition, assets of corporations that retained home offices in the Delaware Valley grew at the slowest rate among the ten largest urban areas in the country. Nevertheless, Philadelphia was able over those years to hold on to its third-place position as a center of concentration for home-office activity. In spite of the fact that the region’s relative decline did slow down a bit during the following three years, as shown in Chart 1, the Delaware Valley has now slipped from third to fourth, nationally, as a center for corporate headquarters.12 FEBRUARY 1970 Previous B u sin ess Review articles pointed to a decline in corporate headquarters in the Philadelphia region as one of the com m unity’s haunting econom ic concerns. Un fortunately, virtually nothing is known as to why the D elaw are V alley is losing its stature as a headquarters center. A nsw ers are not apparent in available econom ic data. Challenged by this conundrum, we took a person al approach to the head quarters problem and discovered that . . . 3 TABLE 1 How the Largest Regions Rank as Home Base for the Nation’s Major Corporations Standard Metropolitan Area New Y o r k .............. Chicago ................ Los Angeles . . . . PH ILAD ELPH IA San Francisco Detroit ................... St. Louis .............. Pittsburgh ......... Boston .............. Washington ......... Ranking in Number of Major Headquarters* 1968 1965 1 2 3 4 5 5 7 8 9 10 1 2 6 3 4 7 8 4 9 10 1956 1 2 8 3 6 5 6 4 9 10 Population Ranking 1968 1 3 2 4 7 5 10 9 6 8 Major headquarters refers to the 750 largest manufacturing and nonmanufac turing corporations in the nation. Source: Fortune magazine and U.S. Bureau of the Census. RAISING PHILADELPHIA’S STATURE AS A HEADQUARTERS CENTER: GOAL FOR COMMUNITY ACTION Community leaders in large metropolitan areas are aggressively promoting the attractiveness of their regions as headquarters centers. Phila delphians are no exception. For Philadelphia, however, achieving a goal of growth entails halting a downtrend in the number of local headquarters. Headquarters have been lost by moves from the region. They have been lost by corporate acquisitions. And because not enough new headquarters have been born in the area, nor attracted to it, the loss is a net one. Local corporate executives have identified community attributes which detract from their satisfaction with Philadelphia as a headquarters location. Concerted community action has some leverage in turning these detractions into attrac tions which should help the region retain its headquarters base. But community action prob 4 ably has less leverage in stemming the head quarters loss via acquisitions. More importantly, one may question whether losing home offices through acquisitions does more harm than good to the total regional economy. Consequently, local community leaders are confronted with the ever-present problem of action priorities in seeking to elevate Philadel phia’s stature as a headquarters complex. Two courses of action appear to deserve attention. The first is to rectify identified shortcomings in the regional environment which executives of today’s headquarters feel dampen their enthu siasm with a Philadelphia location. The second is to concentrate on creating a business climate which stimulates the birth of new firms and home-grown headquarters. These two courses of action, fortunately, appear to be complementary. Undoubtedly, many reasons for Philadelphia’s loss of headquarters are primarily internal to the corporation. The community has little in fluence over these reasons. In numerous cases, however, there are factors in the regional en vironment that strongly influence corporate loca tion decisions. Civic leadership can exercise some control over many of these factors.'1 There is a basic need for better understanding of what these environmental factors are. What attributes of a community are most de sirable for the location of headquarters? Which of the desired attributes are found in the Dela ware Valley, and which are missing? One approach to answers is to talk directly to executives of Philadelphia’s major head quarters who make location decisions.1 If the 3 For a discussion of leverage of local action in regional economic development, see Bertram W. Zumeta, “What Attracts Growth Industries?” Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, July, 1964. 1 Obviously, executives of corporations headquartered outside of Philadelphia may hold different opinions than those interviewed in this survey. One of the chief objectives of this study, however, is to uncover factors that might lead to a continuing loss of Philadelphia’s remaining headquarters. Furthermore, there is reason to believe the exclusion of interviews outside the region presents less of a problem than one might assume. (See footnote 11.) Philadelphia has many strengths. Table 2 also shows how executives interviewed feel Philadel phia stacks up, compared to the nation’s other 5 See Elizabeth P. Deutermann, “ Seeding ScienceBased Industry,” Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, May, 1966. (1In a study of the economy of the Pittsburgh region, one of the chief locational advantages headquarters executives pointed to was the existing concentration of executive offices. See Ira S. Lowry, Portrait of a Region (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania: University of Pitts burgh Press, 1963), p. 93. 7 For a discussion of the methodology of this survey, see the Appendix. FEBRUARY 1970 BUSINESS REVIEW STARTING WITH FIRST THINGS FIRST past trend continues, it will be, to a large degree, a result of these headquarters moving from the area or merging with companies head quartered outside of Philadelphia. In contrast, if these home offices remain in the region, there is reason to believe they can contribute to the birth of new firms (creating headquarters)5* and serve as an attraction for headquarters seek ing new locations." Twenty-five presidents or board chairmen of major corporations in the Delaware Valley, who play the key role in decisionmaking within their respective firms, were interviewed to see what they believe are the most important factors in choosing a headquarters location.7 According to these executives, availability of quality housing for top management is the first priority item in demand. Minimizing the corporation’s total tax burden is the second major consideration. Third is the availability and quality of corporate bank ing services in the region. Accessible and speedy air transportation for executives, a local labor pool of management and professional personnel, and high-quality law enforcement follow as most desirable community assets. Table 2 shows 18 factors, in order of relative importance, which carry the heaviest weight in the eyes of local executives evaluating a headquarters location. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA advertising agencies, law firms, auditors and ac countants, brokerage houses, public relations firms, and insurance companies. When a corpora tion shifts the location of its home office to another region, such service industries frequently lose a major client and a hefty chunk of income. Industrial and civic leaders in the Delaware Valley hope that in some way the community itself may be able to halt Philadelphia’s head quarters decline, and perhaps even reverse it. This is a tall order, but not necessarily an impossible one. 5 TABLE 2 Factors Influencing the Location of Headquarters— and How Philadelphia Stacks Up* Factors Influencing Location Choice in Order of Relative Importance 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. Housing for management and professional personnel .......................... Corporate tax burden ................................. Major corporate banking s e r v ic e s ............ Air transportation for p e rso n n e l.............. Local availability of management and professional personnel .......................... Community law enforcement .................. Regional public schools ............................ Space costs ................................................. Community im a g e ........................................ Colleges and universities .......................... Cultural environment ................................. Regional political environment (SMSA) . Legal services ............................................... Availability of other personnel (supporting office staff) ....................... Local transportation ................................... Local political e n viro nm en t....................... Corporate legal structure .......................... Availability of scientific and technical p e rso n n e l................................. Philadelphia, compared with other major metro politan areas, is . . . Above Below Average Average Average X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X * Based on opinions of presidents or board chairmen of 25 major corporate head quarters in the Philadelphia metropolitan area. For details see Appendix. mean, however, that they believe all large urban centers place heavy tax burdens on corporations. Consequently, they consider themselves as well off in this regard located in the Delaware Valley as they would be in other regions of similar size. Philadelphia also satisfactorily meets most executive needs for air transportation service. Although many comments were offered with respect to an unsatisfactory physical plant at International Airport and an unattractive land 8 Not included in this study are comparisons of Phila scape leading to the airport, the chief plus delphia with smaller metropolitan areas, which rank factor for air transportation is the speed with lower than tenth in population size. Many headquarters which moved from Philadelphia over the past 20 years which one can get off and on the ground. relocated in regions of smaller size. The nine metro Interviewees are relatively pleased with the politan areas compared with Philadelphia were chosen because, by virtue of size, they have many of the same quality of public schools in areas of the region assets and liabilities as the Delaware Valley, they have the largest concentrations of major headquarters, and where they, or their headquarters employees, are they are considered chief competitors for Philadelphia’s most likely to reside. Costs of commercial space position as a major headquarters complex. major metropolitan areas, in supplying these de sired attributes.s Two-thirds of the most impor tant locational advantages for headquarters are judged to be satisfactory or better in Philadel phia relative to the nine other largest cities listed in Table 1. These data do not imply, for example, that chief executives in Philadelphia feel san guine about the taxes imposed on them. It does8 are believed definitely comparable to those in other major urban centers. The region also is considered to offer betterthan-average opportunities for housing and liv ing amenities for executives. We found the greatest consensus regarding this attribute, which weighs most heavily in location decisionmaking. Clearly, the Delaware Valley is judged superior to other regions in housing quality and quantity, at comparable costs. In summary then, top corporate executives tend to look with satisfaction on Philadelphia as a headquarters location. Community ameni ties which are given greatest consideration in decisionmaking are rated at least satisfactory or better compared to regions of similar size. Nearly all business services which are most sought after in selecting a location are believed to measure up to, or excel, those available in comparable urban areas. Other tangible qualities desired for headquarters satisfaction, such as relatively low taxes and space costs, are rated in Philadelphia as adequate as, or superior to, those in alternative metropolitan areas. Where is the problem? At this point we are somewhat puzzled. If the Philadelphia region is so satisfactory in meeting needs of corporate headquarters, why is the community steadily de clining as a headquarters center? That is the riddle we face. The best clue to unearthing the answer seems to be evidenced in those factors considered by executives as: (1 ) important in location deci sionmaking, and (2 ) less than satisfactory in Philadelphia. The last column of Table 2 shows which factors meet these two tests. Something is believed lacking in the region’s ability to pro vide adequate corporate banking services to meet requirements of large headquarters. In addition, there is thought to be an insufficient supply of high-quality management and pro fessional personnel in the area. Philadelphia’s “ community image,’’ viewed as unfavorable, is felt to have a damaging effect on top manage ment's contentment with a Philadelphia loca tion. The same holds for the political environment, particularly at the local level (city, county, or township) where headquarters are housed. Finally, chief executives consider the Delaware Valley somewhat inadequate as a source of first-class scientific and technical talent. Where in these findings is the clue to the regional riddle? From responses of chief execu tives of area headquarters, a common thread runs through the bill of complaints against Philadelphia as a utopia for home offices. While the more tangible attributes of the Delaware Valley— houses, schools, taxes, space costs— are considered competitive with other metro politan areas, the region is rated as less than competitive in the human qualities executives seek in locating home offices. A common denominator. The six indicated shortcomings of Philadelphia just noted manifest a common denominator in the eyes of head quarters executives. In each case, those attributes rated less than competitive with other regions relate to factors of human quality. These factors cannot be underemphasized. Corporate decision makers clearly consider the human quality of a community to play a much stronger role in the location of headquarters than in the location of production and distribution facilities. Further more, psychological costs appear to have greater weight in locating headquarters than in site selec tion for other corporate facilities. That the prob lem is human in nature is more obvious in some instances than in others. An obvious human problem is the un favorable grade Philadelphia received as a source of management and professional per sonnel. Executives recognized the tight labor market nationally for such employees. But Philadelphia is still rated as slightly tighter than other major urban areas for top-notch person nel to fill high-level corporate positions. For such slots, headquarters recruit nationally wherever qualified personnel can be found. Based on our probe, the home town is not where local executives look first— unless they look within their own companies. The great majority of presidents and board chairmen interviewed were critical of the talent managing Philadelphia’s corporations, other than theirs. One executive went so far as to find fault with his own company’s “ lack of aggressiveness”— an exception to the rule. Cleverly, another interviewee turned the lack of management skills in the area into a personal locational advantage. Because of this short coming in other companies, “ the Philadelphia environment satisfies the egos of our top cor porate management.” The political climate of the Delaware Valley is not considered so conducive to the location of corporate headquarters as that of comparable metropolitan areas. This opinion reflects atti tudes of executives toward the specific county, city, or township in which their headquarters are situated, plus the state— which, in this case, means New Jersey or Pennsylvania. Local political leadership, in contrast to that at the state level, has a stronger impact on negative attitudes of executives toward their location. A community political environment which is unresponsive to business needs can strongly influence an executive’s choice of home-office location. In this investigation, over three-fifths of the presidents or board chairmen 8 interviewed offered strong, unsolicited criticism of the political environment which is felt to have a detrimental impact on corporate operations. Political leaders are blamed for administra tive mismanagement, “ irresponsibility and shortsightedness,” and held responsible for spe cific adverse zoning and tax interpretations executives personally have experienced. In the words of one interviewee, “ there is a very serious need for improvement in businessgovernment cooperation.” A directly germane criticism of both state and local government is that “ they [political leaders] try to attract industry, but won’t try to keep it here.” Another “ people problem” corporate leaders point to is a shortage in Philadelphia of topquality scientific and technical personnel. Availability of these types of workers in a re gion is not one of the highest ranking factors evaluated in headquarters decisionmaking. But it still is considered of above-average impor tance in the ranking game. One reason it places no higher is— as with management personnel— that executives recruit nationally wherever they can find the best brains.9 But, again, in the tight labor market of recent years, the local market is believed a less fruitful hunting ground than most other large urban areas. Three-fifths of the executives interviewed consider the Delaware Valley comparatively inadequate in providing needed scientific and technical personnel. One case in which human problems are not so clear-cut is major corporate banking— as con trasted with routine depository services. Of the community attributes most desired, but consid ered relatively below average, banking receives 9 One reason headquarters decisionmakers consider these personnel at all as a location influence is not necessarily for employment in the headquarters opera tion per se, but because top management appears to prefer R & D operations located close to such office functions as marketing and sales. 10 See Appendix. FEBRUARY 1970 BUSINESS REVIEW munity image” achieved the greatest consensus for inadequacy.10 What does “ community image” mean? It is basically the reputation a region has for being a favorable or unfavorable place in which to live and do business. The reputation may be based on facts or folklore. It may be created by experiences visitors encounter today, or by experiences encountered years ago. The repu tation, however, may linger long after facts change. But regardless of how the reputation is created, people are the chief creators. In assessing Philadelphia’s community im age, executives responded in terms of how they thought nonresident businessmen thought. Nev ertheless, this probe of resident businessmen suggests that they consider that the unfavorable image is somewhat deserved. When it comes to the human quality of the region, local execu tives expressed dissatisfaction by assigning inadequate ratings to the attributes discussed earlier. If resident corporate leaders tend to feel Philadelphia is not competitive with other major metropolitan areas in political leadership, bank ing, scientific and technical personnel, and qual ity corporate management, it would be surprising if businessmen outside the area held a higher opinion of the human environment than do the very people who comprise it. The image, as it is relevant to commerce and industry, is created, to a large degree, by contacts with local business men. Their expressed dissatisfaction with human attributes of the community, which they find otherwise satisfactory for home offices, is bound to influence adversely the region’s reputation outside the Delaware Valley. Furthermore, it is of interest to see how local executives evaluate certain other attributes of the area which help outsiders shape their im FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA the least harsh criticism. And much of the criti cism voiced pertains to the comparatively small size of banks in the Delaware Valley. Executives interviewed tend to sympathize with local bank efforts to merge. However, this question of size was frequently related to the quality of bank services, policies, and management. A lack of expertise “ for my business” and, more specifi cally, in handling international transactions were frequently pointed to as human problems. Some credit was given for recent improvements in foreign services, but they still are not viewed as “ up to par.” The strongest and most fre quent complaint was of local bankers’ “ unwill ingness” to pool funds to met large corporate loan demands. Expressions of displeasure with banking service thus recognized legal con straints, but within these constraints the feel ing holds that local bankers can be more cooperative and accommodating in meeting needs of large headquarters. Finally, we come to the question of Phila delphia’s community image. A community’s image carries surprising weight in evaluating the preferred location for headquarters. Ex ecutives who make decisions for Philadelphia home offices view the region’s image as inade quate. And they believe this inadequacy has a damaging effect on corporate operations. The present image, for example, is something man agers feel they must work hard to overcome in order to recruit qualified employees from out side the region. The adverse image also necessi tates a great deal of inefficient traveling time. Furthermore, an executive resents having to travel to other cities for his own board meet ings because fellow board members prefer not to gather in the Delaware Valley. Of a total of 43 community attributes evaluated for their local adequacy ( regardless of whether they were a “ most important” location influence), “ com 9 age of the region. Local presidents and board chairmen rate area hotels as the second (behind “ community image” ) most inadequate regional asset among 43 choices. Good dining spots for entertaining rates sixth in inadequacy. In be tween second and sixth are the “ people prob lems” already discussed. Consequently, area executives tend to agree that food and shelter awaiting business visitors to the area are not so enticing as in other large metropolitan regions. If the resident executives of Philadelphia’s large headquarters evaluate human qualities of the environment, plus bed and bread for visi tors, as somewhat less than adequate, there may be real substance behind the region’s poor rep utation. If not, then opinions held by local executives, if voiced, tend to perpetuate a poor image anyway. FEELINGS AND FACTS As is true in any study of attitudes, we know that people’s views of the facts frequently do not coincide with the facts. Attitudes of execu tives are no exception. Nevertheless, these sub jective attitudes often count more than objective facts when decisions are made. How presidents and board chairmen of Philadelphia’s corporations feel about the region as a desirable location in which to maintain their home of fices can play a major role in whether they remain in, or leave, the area. SUMMING UP THE STATUS QUO From the viewpoint of decisionmaking execu tives of headquarters in the Delaware Valley, the region has many tangible advantages. The following attributes are judged as competitive with those of other large metropolitan areas: good-to-outstanding living arrangements; most needed business services; a supply of supporting office workers; and measurable costs of doing business, as reflected in the tax burden and 10 space costs. An overall air of satisfaction with the region as a home-office location seems to endure at the same time that the region con tinues to lose major headquarters. This part of our investigation leads us to conclude that the apparent cloud of satisfaction has holes in it— holes made by people. The more obvious pattern of relative advantage, or competitiveness, of the region as a headquarters center is incomplete. Executives interviewed do not have a high opinion of the abilities of their counterparts in other local home offices. Top management and professional personnel do not measure up to those available in com parable metropolitan areas, nor do scientific and technical personnel. Similarly, interviewees do not hold a high opinion of political leaders of the region and their attitudes, especially as they concern problems of commerce and indus try. Expressed shortcomings in human qualities of the environment are reflected in the com munity image. The chief tangible assets of the Delaware Valley for headquarters are not be lieved to be matched with vital human induce ments most highly desired by executives for a satisfactory headquarters location.11 NATIONAL CHALLENGE TO A HEADQUARTERS COMPLEX REMAINS Executives of Philadelphia’s major headquar ters believe that rectifying specified shortcom ings in the community can make Philadelphia a more attractive location for home offices. If these shortcomings can be turned into regional assets, perhaps the Delaware Valley will im prove its prospects of retaining the headquarters1 11 In footnote 4, we noted that if corporate executives outside the region had been included in this study, re sponses may have altered our findings. The only other known survey relating directly to our findings did in clude 400 top policymakers located outside, as well as inside, the Delaware Valley. In unanticipated agreement, they viewed Philadelphia as unfavorable for industrial The chart sh ow s the stepped-up n a tional m erger m ovem ent in m an ufac turing and mining industries betw een 1949 and 1968. Number of Firms Acquired 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 n 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 t 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 LL L 1949 195119531955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 19671969 Source: Bureau of Economics, Federal Trade Commis sion. If two corporations in the Delaware Valley* location with respect to the impact of “governmental and community attitudes.” See “ The Impact of LaborManagement Climate on Facility Location Decisions in the Greater Philadelphia Area,” (Report of the South eastern Pennsylvania Economic Development Corpora tion, May, 1967). BUSINESS REVIEW CHART 2 T H E IN C R E A S E IN M ERGERS ELIM INATES EXISTING H EAD Q U ARTERS. merge, only one headquarters survives. If a corporation outside of the region acquires a local firm, another home office disappears from Philadelphia. The national increase in mergers is a significant threat to the number of area headquarters. In the past few years, most of Philadelphia’s major corporations were directly approached with merger offers. Some accepted, and their home offices in the region closed shop. A num ber of corporate executives interviewed, who remain headquartered in Philadelphia, reported that merger offers came as frequently as once a week. Although offers were rejected, 64 per cent of these decisionmakers did give considera tion to the offers to merge. Corporate presidents or board chairmen pointed to two main reasons for rejecting mer ger offers. One was that “ the price wasn’t right.” Some executives explicitly said that if the stock market had been booming when an offer came, they definitely would have sold. But the other major reason for not merging has little to do with the national economy or the economics of the firm. The reason can be summarized as “ family considerations.” Family tradition, family pride, and family refusal to relocate outside of Philadelphia— which a mer ger might necessitate— loomed large in decisions of Philadelphia’s corporate leaders who contem plated, and rejected, offers to merge. But how about executives of Philadelphia headquarters who did accept merger offers and elected to become subsidiaries of corporations headquartered outside of the region? Why did they accept? They based their decisions on the same considerations that the still-headquartered executives did in rejecting a merger. Top man agement of companies which were acquired believed a merger was in the best interest of the family, and that the price was right. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA it now has. This statement is obviously, but of necessity, cautious. The reason for caution is that Philadelphia’s stature as a headquarters complex depends on factors other than just keeping today’s cor porate executives happy in their community environment. Business and civic leaders who are trying to halt the decline in home offices not only have local problems with which to contend, but national ones as well. A nationwide challenge to arresting the de cline in Philadelphia headquarters is the stepped-up pace of mergers in today’s economy, as shown in Chart 2. Any merger automatically kills off a headquarters operation some place. 11 These were general reasons given for merging by executives of 13 local subsidiaries included in our survey.12 The subsidiaries were once Philadelphia-headquartered firms. Between 1951 and 1967 they were acquired by corporations whose home offices are outside the metropolitan area. The firms in the survey, therefore, no longer have a local headquarters but do have the main subsidiary office and other operating facilities within the Delaware Valley. In all 13 interviews with chief executives of subsidiaries, the best interest of the family, which owned the formerly-headquartered cor poration, was given as a prime consideration in choosing to become a subsidiary of another corporation. In some cases, executives said the family was anxious to dump a dying firm. Most of the firms, however, were not at death’s door. The reason for merging, which was noted with greatest frequency, was for tax-free diversifica tion for “ the family.” The Philadelphia firm, previously, had concentrated its output in one major product line to the point where speedy diversification was essential to remain, or again become, profitable. The family owning the com pany, or the bank managing the family trust, concluded that the quickest way to diversify and avoid the distant death knell was to sell to a larger and more diversified corporation. Members of the family-held corporation, or executors of estates, were the key decision makers in selling all 13 firms. The majority of companies, which did not feel ready for burial, were most anxious to obtain financing for expansion— not available to them as closely-held family concerns. The merger opened new financing channels through the larger, better-known, or more profitable parent company. Additional benefits said to 12 For details, see the Appendix. 12 have resulted from the merger were needed managerial expertise and accessibility to research and development resources provided by the acquirer. COMMUNITY RESPONSE IN QUESTION Philadelphia’s civic leaders who are seriously disturbed at the loss of home offices to the region tend to “ blame” the loss on acquisitions. Some local action already has been planned to try to prevent “ outsiders” from acquiring firms headquartered in Philadelphia. No doubt mergers are a source of disappearing headquar ters. But whether the costs to the regional economy of a disappearing home office, via acquisition by a non-Philadelphia corporation, outweigh benefits resulting from the newly con stituted subsidiary has not been previously ex plored.13 If the answer is not clear-cut, perhaps there is a better alternative to maintaining the region’s headquarters complex than in trying to halt acquisitions of Philadelphia firms by cor porations whose home offices are out of the area. Probing cost experience. There is evidence of some acquisition cost to the local economy in the experience of the 13 subsidiaries surveyed. One cost appears to be a regional “ brain drain.” In the case of headquarters which are closed fol lowing acquisitions, top-management talent is forced out of the local office as headquarters func tions are cut back, abolished, or relocated. Exec utives caught in this squeeze tend to look to the 13 There are many difficulties involved in assessing the economic impact on a region of acquisitions. No research is known to exist which has tackled the problem in depth. Findings reported in this article are based on interviews with top executives of local firms which were once headquartered in Philadelphia and are now sub sidiaries as a result of acquisitions. Obviously, no one knows what the experience of these firms would have been had they not been acquired. ACQUISITIONS OF FIRMS HEADQUARTERED IN PHILADELPHIA ARE FOLLOWED BY A SHIFT IN HOME OFFICE FUNCTIONS TO HEADQUARTERS OUTSIDE THE REGION. R ESP O N SIB ILIT IE S FOR: Financial Decisions Acquisition Programs ............ ...................I m m Personnel Policies New Product Development Expansion Planning Marketing and Advertising }Z Z= Z3 0 - T5™ ! 1 30 50 40 i _ J ------ 1------ 1-----60 70 80 90 100 Percentage of Firms Shifting Functions Out of the Area Source: Survey of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadel phia, 1969. See Appendix. FEBRUARY 1970 BUSINESS REVIEW FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA planning and decisionmaking is now carried out at the parent headquarters, not in the Delaware Valley. Prior to the merger, profes sional personnel were employed in the local home office to perform these financial functions. Similarly, acquisition planning and performance was the function of Philadelphia executives prior to the merger. In 77 per cent of the cases, this headquarters activity shifted out of the region when the merger was consummated. Over half of the local subsidiaries lost responsi bility for personnel and salary policies to a nonregional headquarters following acquisi tions. Less than half, or 46 per cent, of the sub sidiaries were stripped of responsibility for planning for expansion and for development of new products in the post-merger period. The majority of the subsidiaries, consequently, still retain management personnel to perform these national market for the best professional op portunities. If these opportunities are not found in the Delaware Valley, executives may leave the region. Some may move to the home office of the new parent firm, which in the surveyed group is not in the Philadelphia area. Among subsidiaries in this study, 69 per cent of the executives interviewed reported a reduc tion in managerial and/or research and development personnel at the top and middlemanagement levels following mergers. Types of personnel phased out as a result of the loss of the home office is indicated by the headquarters functions which were shifted away from the Philadelphia metropolitan area. Our findings, as shown in Chart 3, suggest that local employees responsible for high-level corporate decisions lost responsibilities after acquisitions. For example, in 92 per cent— or all but one — of the subsidiaries surveyed, major financial 13 functions. However, one would expect some reduction in top personnel to perform these activities since final decisions on expansion and new products depend on financial decisions made by executives at the parent headquarters outside Philadelphia. As such home-office responsibilities are re duced or phased out following an acquisition, so too are the executives performing them. If they move from the region, the quality of the local labor force is weakened. This is what is meant by a brain drain. Many secondary effects on the economy follow this movement. Payrolls and the tax base are reduced. Upper-income familities out-migrate with the breadwinners. This is the start of a detrimental rippling im pact on area retail sales and services which can become far-reaching. Another cost to the region of losing execu tives, as a result of acquisitions, is believed to be a decline in business support of civic and cultural activities. Local folklore holds that not only does the loss of management personnel to the region have an adverse impact on these activities, but that headquartered corporations are more civic-minded per se than are subsidi aries. This study, however, did not find a decline in community involvement to be a seri ous cost consideration stemming from the loss of headquarters via merger. Top executives of subsidiary offices in Philadelphia were questioned as to their firms’ participation in specific civic and cultural activi ties in both the pre-merger and post-merger periods. Such activities included different types of support of area colleges and universities; participation in the Greater Philadelphia Cham ber of Commerce; contributions to the United Fund; personal and financial support of cultural activities; and participation in nonprofit develop ment corporations and other similar urban affairs. 14 Based on interviews with resident managers of subsidiaries, civic and cultural activities ex perienced a very slight cutback in support from a few firms in the post-merger period while some activities, in contrast, received increased involvement following acquisitions. Over onehalf of the subsidiaries, however, reported no change in their participation in any community activities. And today, two-thirds of the firms are not actively involved in any specific civic endeavor. The majority of companies reporting “ no change” indicated no change from nothing to nothing. As Philadelphia-based headquarters, they made virtually no active contribution to the civic and cultural life of the community. As sub sidiaries, their contribution is largely unchanged. Some interviewees tended to be apologetic for their lack of civic participation. The ma jority of executives, however, expressed the opinion that the degree of business involvement in community affairs was not strongly influenced by whether the firm was a headquarters or a subsidiary. The viewpoint of respondents is that geographical location and type of industry has a greater impact on community involvement of business than corporate structure. If a firm is located in the core city, it is more likely to be active in civic affairs than if it is located in a suburban area where commuting time to cen ter city is a very high cost. Executives also stated that if they could expect their companies to be direct beneficiaries of civic and cultural improvements, they would be more active. All but one of the subsidiaries included in this survey are in manufacturing as opposed to service industries. Their top executives claim that if they were operating such services as hotels, banks, transportation facilities, or retail outlets, their concern with urban affairs would be greatly enhanced. Opinions also reflect the fact that all of the subsidiaries, but one, are located outside of center-city Philadelphia. Of these, half are in suburban communities of the metropolitan area and half are in outlying areas of the city. Downtown meetings necessary for active participation in civic and cultural affairs of the community are not conveniently accessi ble to offices of executives. The cost to the region of acquisitions most frequently noted is a substantial loss of income to local business services. Twelve out of 13 types of business which receive income from supplying headquarters’ needs lost clients after an acquisition, as shown in Chart 4. When firms were headquartered in Philadelphia, prime suppliers of 88 per cent of their service needs were located in the region.14 Following acquisi tions, the subsidiaries discontinued buying from many of these Philadelphia industries. Post merger, local industries were prime suppliers for only 53 per cent of the services required by the reorganized subsidiaries. The region’s loss of headquarters was followed by a shift in buying of business services to other parts of the country. Some industries were harder hit than others after acquisitions. Philadelphia insurance com panies lost the largest number of clients when locally headquartered corporations merged. Eighty-three per cent of the merged companies shifted the bulk of their insurance purchases to companies outside of the metropolitan area, as shown in Chart 4. Fifty per cent or more of the acquired firms, which had previously pur chased services primarily from local public re lations firms, brokerage houses, auditors and accountants, banks, and advertising agencies, switched to other firms outside the Delaware Valley after they became subsidiaries.1 11 If a local service industry received over 50 per cent of the firm’s budget for that service, the industry was considered a “prime supplier.” The benefit side of the ledger. There is reason, however, to question the damage done to the total regional economy because of mergers. It is very possible that companies which have been a drag on the local economy may be greater assets to the area if they are acquired, even though headquarters may be lost in the process. If better management, new capital investment, and greater national competitiveness result from acquisi tions, local economic benefits may far outweigh the cost of fewer corporate headquarters. In the survey of subsidiaries, today’s operat ing executives unanimously agreed that merging was the only hope for growth. For four of the 13 companies, the stated choice facing the firm was either be acquired or die. On the basis of in formation provided by interviewees, all of the acquisitions were followed by growth, or at least stabilization, of subsidiary operations in the Delaware Valley. All subsidiaries were able to improve, mod ernize, expand, or develop new products as a result of financial resources made available by the acquiring corporation, not available prior to the merger. Eighty-five per cent of the sub sidiary executives said that local production be came more competitive in the national market as a result of improved management assistance and R & D expertise provided by the parent company. Data to back up these claims are not easy to come by. Survey results show, however, that both assets and sales of the Philadelphia sub sidiaries increased following acquisitions in 92 per cent of the cases. Employment within the Delaware Valley increased at 69 per cent of the subsidiaries in the post-merger period. The remaining companies which reported a decline in regional employment attributed the drop to long-overdue modernization programs which substituted capital for labor. All subsidiaries, CHART 4 FOLLOW ING ACQUISITIONS AND THE LOSS OF AREA HEADQUARTERS, PHILADELPHIA BUSINESS SERVICES LOST BUYERS. Percentage of com panies shifting local purch ases to firms out of the region in the post-m erger period, 1951-1968. LOCAL IN D U STRY Insurance Public Relations Brokerage Auditing and Accounting Banking Advertising Legal Services R&D Consulting Executive Recruiting Management Consulting Office Supplies Printing Machine Rental and Repair 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percentage of Companies Shifting Purchases Away from Philadelphia Source: Survey of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadel phia, 1969. See Appendix. but one, made capital investments in the metro politan area after the acquisition. Almost two-thirds of the subsidiaries, post merger, invested in new plants or in major expansions or modernization of existing facili ties in Philadelphia. In only two cases were physical facilities actually closed in the area after the merger. In the first case, the personnel in the core city headquarters moved to the suburban plant. In the second case, three obso lete factories were closed, and these operations 16 were consolidated under one roof in a new suburban location. Two faces of Janus. This look at some of the costs and benefits of acquisitions of firms head quartered in Philadelphia, by corporations out side of the region, only scratches the surface. But that surface needs some scratching. Since most major metropolitan areas are losing corporate headquarters through the merger process, it is important to recognize that the regional eco Nevertheless, legitimate reasons were noted for Philadelphia’s community leaders to be con cerned with the decline in local headquarters. But is the concern focused on the major prob lem? Some headquarters have moved from the region because the grass was greener elsewhere. Others have been lost in the merger process. And this loss is a hard battle for Philadelphia civic leaders to fight. A serious question for the community is why the loss of headquarters has been a net one, which reduced Philadelphia’s stature as a headquarters complex. Home offices today may be gone tomorrow, but the area’s stature as a headquarters center can only slip if the loss is not replenished by new head quarters coming on stream. This is exactly what has not been happening in the Philadelphia metropolitan area. The local economy has not been generating enough new headquarters to offset its losses. Of the 32 locally headquartered corporations and subsidi aries included in this survey which were founded in Philadelphia, the average year of birth was 1882. The most recent birth was 1947— but that was a real standout. Prior to that one, the most recently formed corporation dates to 1929. The average year of founding of all head quarters in the study, which make up the re gion’s home-office complex today, is 1879. Corporations which were headquartered in the area prior to acquisition (after 1950) have birth dates averaging around the year 1889. Apparently, Philadelphia’s headquarters complex FEBRUARY 1970 FIRM FOUNDATION FOR A HEADQUARTERS COMPLEX In exploring the decline of Philadelphia as a headquarters center, two underlying reasons have been probed in depth. First, factors in the community environment which may influence existing headquarters to move were pointed out by local corporate executives. If identified shortcomings can be turned into assets, the region’s present headquarters complex should have stronger reasons for remaining intact. Rectifying observed shortcomings in human qualities of the environment might even have some influence in attracting headquarters onthe-move to the Delaware Valley. But this pop ular panacea of attraction is highly over rated. Certainly in Philadelphia, efforts to at tract new offices have not been very successful. In this study, of the 38 companies surveyed, only six were born outside the region. These six were not attracted here in the usual sense of the term. A more typical example of an out side firm relocating its headquarters in Phila delphia is the case of the Philadelphia resident who bought a New York firm and moved it here. It is an atypical case when corporate management of a firm surveys alternative com munities for headquarters relocation and settles on Philadelphia. 15 A check of all manufacturing companies in the Philadelphia SM SA which have no headquarters outside of the region shows 73 per cent were founded prior to 1929. See the Appendix for a description of the universe from which the sample of interviewees was drawn. BUSINESS REVIEW A RETURN TO THE CHALLENGE AT HOME is a result of a boom in entrepreneurship which preceded the 1929 depression.15 With few new major corporations postdating the depression, Philadelphia’s net headquarters loss is under standable. The Delaware Valley needs to grow its own home offices if a continuing net loss in headquarters is to be arrested. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA nomic impact need not be all bad. There are two sides to the coin. If local firms become more com petitive nationally as a result of a merger, bene fits to the Philadelphia economy may far outweigh the loss of headquarters. 17 A second major force behind the region’s headquarters decline is the national increase in acquisition activity. How effective community action can be in mitigating the local impact of this national trend is questionable. As pointed out, there are reasons to challenge whether such a goal is in the best interest of the regional economy as a whole. It seems highly probable that the Delaware Valley will continue to lose home offices through acquisitions by corpora tions headquartered outside the area. Holding on to today’s headquarters complex is an important thumb-in-the-dyke objective to maintain Philadelphia’s home-office strength. But it is still just a holding operation. A further loss in headquarters by acquisition appears very probable. The most likely chance Philadelphia has of preventing a further net loss is by grow ing its own headquarters at home through a resurgence in human enterprise. Philadelphia’s “ concerned community” can not form new firms to create local headquarters. But it can make conditions in the community more amenable to a corporate baby boom. For example, new venture-capital corporations, which recently have appeared on the local scene, are a response to a vital need. Turning Phila delphia’s shortcomings in human qualities into regional assets can make the area a more attrac tive climate for business generation and healthy growth. Incubator facilities which provide man agement assistance, such as those available at the Regional Development Laboratory in West Philadelphia, can aid new businesses in getting off the ground. Philadelphia’s civic and business leadership can go a long way to improve the area’s climate for new-firm formations and concomitant head quarters generation. Unfortunately, leadership cannot force new entrepreneurs to step forth. Human venturesomeness is a fundamental necessity for new-business enterprise. An entre preneurial renaissance, of the pre-depression variety, is essential if the community’s net loss of headquarters is to turn into a net gain in the future. Generating home offices within the region is basic to a firm foundation for a major headquarters complex in Philadelphia. Methodology Of This Investigation And The Meaning Of The Findings Findings reported in this article are based on data collected through personal, in-depth inter views with key executives of 38 business firms in the Philadelphia area. These 38 were respon dents in a sample of 40 firms selected from a universe of all firms (manufacturing and non manufacturing ) in the Philadelphia eight-county area (SM SA) which: (a) are listed by Dun and Bradstreet as having a corporate headquar ters office or a headquarters office of a subsidiary located in the SMSA; (b ) have a net worth of $1,000,000 or more; and (c) are classified in two-digit SIC groups which have an aggregate employment of 10,000 persons or more. The universe may be described as those business firms in industry groups upon whom the eco nomic health of the region most heavily depends and who have made headquarters location deci sions relating to the Philadelphia area. Within this segment of the business com- FEBRUARY 1970 BUSINESS REVIEW quarters and the sub-sample of 13 firms with subsidiary headquarters located in the area to be representative of all such firms in these two respective groups. The 25 headquarters included in the survey equal 4.4 per cent of all corporations headquar tered in the area and employ 50.6 per cent of all people employed by corporations having headquarters in the region. The 13 subsidiaries included in the survey equal 26 per cent of all subsidiaries with their main office in the area. They employ 93 per cent of all persons employed by subsidiaries with main offices in the region. Data used for the article were obtained through personal interviews, ranging between one and a half and three hours, with the presi dent or chairman of the board of each head quartered corporation, or in the case of subsidiaries, with the top local executive. To insure comparability, each person interviewed in the headquarters sub-sample and in the sub sidiary sub-sample was asked the same ques tions by the same interviewer. However, interviews were open-ended. Executives ex pressed themselves freely and at length. The first part of this article draws heavily on a section of the headquarters questionnaire in which executives were first asked to select and rank, in order of relative importance, the ten attributes in a community which would weigh most heavily in the selection of a location for their headquarters. Interviewees had 45 attri butes (plus an option of “ other” ) from which to choose. They were then asked to rate every attribute, whether most important to them or not, as superior, satisfactory, or inadequate in the Philadelphia SMSA, in terms of their own needs, relative to the nine other largest metro politan areas in the nation. These adjectives used for rating are treated synonymously, in the FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA munity, four separate sub-groups of firms were identified, for subsequent sampling. Sub-group (A ) consisted of all 13 firms in the region which employ 10,000 persons or more. The total number of employees reflects the number of people employed by firms whose corporate or subsidiary headquarters are located in the SMSA, without respect to the number of employees who actually work in the area. Of chief executives of the 13 firms included in the sample, one refused to be inter viewed. Findings reported in the text, then, include all headquarters and subsidiaries in the region, except one, which employ 10,000 per sons or more. Sub-group ( B ) consisted of ten two-digit SIC groups in which firm employment ranged between 3,000 and 9,999. The firm in each SIC group with the largest number of employees was selected for inclusion in the study. Eight of these firms have corporate headquarters, and two have their subsidiary’s main office in the Philadelphia area. Sub-group ( C ) consisted of all remaining companies (employing fewer than 3,000 peo ple) in the universe which have their corporate headquarters in the area. Seven of these were selected for inclusion in the study by using sys tematic sampling procedures. One, however, did not respond to the interview. Sub-group (D ) consisted of all remaining firms in the universe which have the main of fice of the subsidiary located in the area. Ten of these were selected for inclusion in the study by the same sampling procedures used with sub-group (C ). Taken together, we assume the sample of 40 firms to be representative of all large firms with corporate or subsidiary headquarters offices located in the Philadelphia SMSA. We assume the sub-sample of 27 firms with corporate head 19 text, with above average, average, and below average, respectively. Table A shows the 18 factors most fre quently chosen as most important in location decisionmaking. The table records the number of times each factor was ranked as one of the ten prime considerations. As shown in Table A, there was wide variation in relative weights executives assigned to locational factors. Inter estingly, the table indicates that many attributes which tend to rank high in plant location choices, such as proximity to markets and sup pliers, labor-management relations, wage rates, labor productivity, and transportation for ma teriel, are relatively unimportant in decision making for locating headquarters offices. The TABLE A Factors Influencing the Location of Headquarters Philadelphia was judged to compare with other major Number of Factors Influencing Location metropolitan areas as: Respondents Choice in Order of Relative Placing Factor Seriously or Importance Satis in the Top Ten Superior Somewhat factory Inadequate 1. Housing for management and professional p e rso n n e l........................ 2. Corporate tax burden . . . 3. Major corporate banking services .......................... 4. Air transportation for p e rso n n e l........................ 5. Local availability of management and professional p e rso n n e l............ 6. Community law enforcement ............................... 7. Regional public schools . . 8. Space c o s t s ........................ 9. Community image ............ 10. Colleges and universities . 11. Cultural environment . . . . 12. Regional political environment (SMSA) . . 13. Legal services ................... 14. Availability of other personnel (supporting office staff) ................... 15. Local transportation . . . . 16. Local political environment 17. Corporate legal stru cture . 18. Availability of scientif c and technical personnel 20 19 16 19 2 6 18 0 5 14 7 9 9 13 1 18 6 12 3 11 11 12 11 10 9 8 8 14 8 7 0 13 11 9 14 16 6 8 10 2 3 2 19 4 4 8 8 0 12 12 10 13 3 7 7 7 6 8 10 1 2 15 14 9 21 2 1 15 2 6 4 6 15 TA B LE B Extent to Which Community Attributes Were Judged Inadequate by 25 Interviewees Community Attribute Rated as Inadequate by: Community image .............. . . . H o t e ls ..................................... . . . Local political environment . . . . Availability of scientific and technical personnel . . . . Regional political environment (SMSA) . . . . . . D in in g ..................................... . . . Proximity to other area headquarters ................... . . . Highways (for personnel use) ................................... . . . Availability of management personnel .......................... . . . International transportation . . . Banking: major corporate s e r v ic e s .............................. . . . Executive recruiters ............ .. . Public relations services . . . . . Advertising services ............ .. . Brokerage services .............. . . . Zoning ................................... . . State political environment . Labor p rod uctivity................ . . . Proximity to m a r k e ts ......... . . . Air transportation (for personnel) ................ . . 19 17 15 15 13 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 Community Attribute Rated as Inadequate by: Taxes ........................................ Labor-management relations Cultural e n v iro n m e n t............ . Colleges and universities . . . . Regional public schools . . . . Corporate legal services . . . Space requirements ............ . Rail transportation (for p e rs o n n e l)................... Proximity to suppliers ......... Law enforcement ................... Space costs ............................ Availability of supporting office staff .......................... Corporate legal structure . . C o st-o f-livin g .......................... Recreation ............................... Transportation for materiel . Fire protection ....................... Proximity to other units of co rp o ratio n ..................... Local tra n sp o rtatio n .............. Housing for management . . Salary le v e ls ............................ Banking: routine depository s e r v ic e s ............ Regional private schools . . . . . . . 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 . 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 FEBRUARY 1970 BUSINESS REVIEW executives gave attributes in Philadelphia rela tive to other regions, ratings of superior, satis factory, and inadequate are referred to as above average, average, and below average, respec tively. The rating receiving the most responses for each attribute was arbitrarily assigned that overall rating. When a tie score for the most checks occurred, if satisfactory plus superior FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA cutoff point of 18 out of 45 factors was arbi trarily set by any factor receiving a larger number of “ relative importance” checks than one would expect if checks were evenly dis tributed between the 45 options— in which case each factor would have received 5.6 checks. Table 2 in the text was developed from raw data in Table A. In summarizing the ratings 21 was less than satisfactory plus inadequate then “ inadequate” or “ below average” received the summary evaluation in Table 2 of the article. Since the first part of the text dealt at length with community attributes executive decision makers of corporate headquarters felt were less than satisfactory, Table B contains all 43 attri butes amenable to rating, in declining order of relative dissatisfaction. ( “ Blue laws” and “ fam 22 ily ties of top management,” included on the questionnaire, were not rated as superior, satis factory, or inadequate.) The table also shows the frequency with which executives judged each attribute to be comparatively inadequate in the Delaware Valley for their specific needs. In 25 interviews, the maximum number of “ inade quate” responses any attribute could receive is 25. FEBRUARY 1970 EXPECTED VS. UNEXPECTED INFLATION What people believe about the course of future events influences their present actions. Expecta tions about future inflation are no exception. If people, looking ahead, expect inflation, they may be able to adjust their present earning, pur chasing, lending, and borrowing activities. By doing so, they may overcome the expected de preciation in the value of money. This process, recently dubbed “ inflationary psychology,” con tinues until people have reason to foresee or expect a stable price level. One example of inflationary psychology in operation would be that of a lender who in cludes in his loan charges the expected or an ticipated rate of price inflation. His reason for doing so is obvious. Suppose you loan $1,000 to a friend for one year, and you expect the price level to rise by 10 per cent during that period. What rate of interest would be appro priate if you wanted to earn a real return (in terms of constant purchasing power) of 5 per cent? Answer: about 15 per cent. This mone tary return would allow you a real return of 5 BUSINESS REVIEW by W. Lee Hoskins FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA Inflation: Gainers and Losers How much is inflation costing you? When the cash register rings, the Pavlovian response of most Americans is “ plenty.” This reaction, re inforced by news media, civic leaders, and street-corner philosophers, may not be wholly warranted, for the burden of rising prices, like almost everything else, is not distributed equally among us. In fact, a sizeable number of Ameri cans may actually gain from inflation. 23 per cent, and you would avoid a loss of wealth, but perhaps not of a friend. If, however, in making the loan, you underestimated the rise in prices, the return you would receive would be insufficient to compensate fully for the re duced purchasing power of the repaid loan plus interest, and you would have joined ranks with inflation losers. Your failure to foresee accu rately the rate of inflation would result in a redistribution of your wealth from you to your friend. Your friend would be an inflation gainer because he does not repay as much in terms of purchasing power as he borrowed. Not all people are equally able to make the necessary adjustments in their earning, purchas ing, lending, and borrowing activities to com pensate for inflation they see on the horizon. Even if they were, that would not be the end of the story, for it is because inflation is incor rectly foreseen that gains and losses are often incurred. All people do not have equal ability or luck at predicting future events or doing some thing about it. Consequently, inflations in the United States have not been fully anticipated by all, and wealth redistribution has occurred. One key to this redistribution is the relationship between debtors and creditors. THE ADVANTAGE OF DEBT The reason wealth is taken from some and bestowed on others by unforeseen inflation stems from the fact that there are two kinds of assets, monetary and real, linking debtors and creditors. Monetary assets include bonds, certificates of deposit, promissory notes, ac counts receivable, and other legal contracts that promise a fixed, number of dollars. Of course, for every monetary asset there is a monetary lia bility. For instance, to the landlord a lease represents a monetary asset, while to the tenant 24 it is a monetary liability— a promise to pay a fixed number of dollars. In return for this prom ise to pay, the tenant receives a real asset— living space. People may issue monetary liabili ties in order to finance purchases of real assets (cars, houses, inventories, and factories) or for consumption. The crucial difference between the two is that a real asset is a claim to a fixed amount of goods or services whose money value is tied to infla tion, while a monetary asset represents a claim to a fixed number of dollars regardless of infla tion.1 During an unexpected inflation, the dollar value of a real asset increases as prices rise, leaving its real value in terms of purchasing power unchanged; while the amount of dollars in a monetary asset ( savings certificate) remains constant, and its real value falls. An investor holding a monetary asset loses purchasing power or wealth. (See Table 1.) The person who holds a monetary liability (in other words, who is in debt) during an unexpected inflation gains un expectedly because he repays his debt in dollars that are worth less in terms of purchasing power. 1 The market value of the asset may vary but the number of dollars it promises to return remains fixed. Corporate and Government bonds are good examples of this type of monetary asset. A share of common stock represents ownership in an equity composed of both real and monetary assets. The extent to which the share price changes as a result of an unanticipated inflation depends on the relative holdings of these assets. Suppose a hypo thetical firm has $200 million of monetary assets con sisting of cash on hand, loans to other firms, Government securities, and accounts receivable. It also has $800 mil lion in monetary liabilities (bonds, loans, and accounts payable). The firm is a net monetary debtor to the tune of $600 million. If 30 million shares of stock were out standing, each would bear a debt of $20. Suppose the stock sold for $40. Then each share would represent a claim for real goods of $60 (the $40 received for the share plus $20 borrowed by the firm) and a 10 per cent rise in the price level would increase the equity of a shareholder by 15 per cent (1 0 per cent of $60 represents a 15 per cent rise in a $40 equity), unless other people anticipated the inflation and previously bid up the share price of the stock. TABLE t The Change from 1958 to 1968 in Monetary Value of Selected Assets in Unadjusted Dollars and in Dollars of 1957-1959 Purchasing Power Percentage Change in Value Unadjusted $ 1957-59 $ Asset Cash ...................................................................... Bonds: U.S. Treasury* ............................................... N.Y. C it y * * ...................................................... Preferred Stock A v e ra g e ................................... Common Stock Averages: Industrials ...................................................... Public Utilities ............................................... New York City B a n k s ................................... — - 2 3 .7 -1 9 .9 - 2 1 .4 - 2 3 .2 -3 5 .3 - 3 6 .4 - 3 7 .9 + 91.7 + 61.0 + 104.3 + 55.0 + 30.2 + 65.2 The table shows changes in the value of various types of investments for the period 1958-1968. These changes are shown unadjusted for price level changes and in dollars of 1957-1959 purchasing power. An indication of the change in value that may be attributed to inflation is found by comparing the unadjusted change in value and the change in dollars of 1957-1959 purchasing power. Mone tary assets (cash, bonds, and preferred stock) have all suffered declines in value ranging from approximately 23.7 per cent to 37.9 per cent in terms of 1957-1959 dollars. For example, holding $100 in cash for the ten year period would have resulted in a 23.7 per cent loss in purchasing power. The common stock averages have all realized an increase in value. However, the increase is considerably less when inflation is taken into account. * U.S. Treasury 3 -l/4 s, 6/15 /78-83 ** N.Y. City 4-1/4s, 3/1 /81 Most families have real assets, monetary as sets, and debts (monetary liabilities). The rela tive holdings of these items during periods of unanticipated increases in the price level deter mine whether or not a given family gains or loses from inflation. If a family holds more monetary liabilities than monetary assets, it gains. Conversely, if monetary assets exceed debts, the family loses. (See box.) So, being in debt can have advantages during periods of unexpected inflation. This statement does not mean that saving makes no sense. Savings held in nonmonetary form do not lose value. More over, savings held in monetary form may lose value only when inflation is unanticipated. If in flation were accurately anticipated, adjustments could be made so that savings held in monetary asset form (except cash) would make sense as well. TAKING ACCOUNT OF INCOME A family’s status as a net monetary debtor or creditor is not all that determines whether inflation robs it or blesses it. Income also fits into the picture. Let’s focus first on income from certain pension plans, insurance policies, and other types of programs which promise to pay a fixed number of dollars per year. These promises to pay are monetary assets to the pensioner, and the amount they pay is unaffected by a rise in the price level.2 People 2 Social Security payments do not appear to fall in this category. As prices climbed during the 1960’s, Congress periodically raised the allowable monthly pay ments. CALCULATING GAINS AND LOSSES The redistribution of wealth accompanying an unanticipated inflation can be better understood by tracing through some relatively simple ex amples. Suppose a hypothetical balance sheet for an individual before an unanticipated infla tion is: Balance Sheet— Inflation Gainer Market Value before Unanticipated Inflation Assets Cash House $ Equity + Liabilities 500 40,000 Mortgage $40,000 Equity 500 $40,500 $40,500 If a particularly severe inflation occurs and the price level doubles, this individual would be in an enviable position indeed! Let’s look at his new balance sheet: Balance Sheet— Inflation Gainer Market Value after Unanticipated Inflation Assets Cash House Equity + Liabilities 500 80,000 Mortgage $40,000 Equity 40,500 $80,500 $80,500 $ The dollar value of his house rises with the price level, since it is a real asset. (The extent of the rise may vary depending on how the inflation is introduced into the economy and on other factors affecting the housing market). His $40,000 debt, a monetary liability incurred in purchasing the house, remains an obligation to repay $40,000. Equity has increased from $500 to $40,500 which, in terms of pre-inflation 26 dollars, is a $19,750 increase in wealth. The increase in wealth is found by dividing the post inflation equity, $40,500, by the new price level, which in this case is 2 ( the old price level, taken as 1, plus the percentage increase in the price level), and subtracting from the result the original equity of $500. Where did the gain come from? It came from the wealth of the creditor who lent $40,000 to finance the purchase of the house, but who failed to foresee that the price level would double. Some $20,000 was gained at the expense of the creditor; however, the value of the $500 cash dropped $250, leaving a net wealth gain in terms of constant purchasing power of $19,750. If the lender had foreseen the infla tion, he would have made adjustments in the amount to be repaid or in the interest charge upon granting the loan. Losses result from holding more monetary assets than monetary liabilities. Let’s suppose this is the balance sheet of the lender who loaned the money for the house before the unanticipated inflation: Balance Sheet— Inflation Loser Market Value before Unanticipated Inflation Assets Cash $ 500 Mortgage Held 40,000 $40,500 Equity + Liabilities Debt Equity $40,500 $40,500 Now, if the price level were to double, the balance sheet would be unchanged. $40,500 Debt Equity $40,500 $40,500 Since no real assets were held, equity did not increase. But, because of the higher price level, the $40,500 equity will not purchase as much holding such assets are said to be on “ fixed incomes;” hence, they suffer a loss from unan ticipated inflation. However, the person on a “ fixed income” may hold other monetary assets and liabilities as well. And it is the relative holdings of all of these that determine whether or not a person’s wealth expands, shrinks, or is unaffected when the price level climbs unex pectedly. Undoubtedly, the most important source of income for most families is wage and salary earnings. Unforeseen inflation can have an im pact upon this type of income too. For exam ple, a wage contract promising to deliver a specified number of hours of labor for a fixed number of dollars may cause the laborer to lose, for such a contract represents a monetary asset to him. Moreover, wages are bid up faster in some sectors than others because of the manner in which the inflation is introduced and transmitted through the economy. Conse quently, some redistribution does occur. But generally, wages and salaries simply reflect what we receive in return for the sale of real assets (hours of labor), and as such are usually bid up during an inflation. For example, during the current period of rising prices, average hourly pre-inflation dollars or ^ $40,500 ^ — $40,500. The lender lost $20,000 to the borrower, plus $250 as a result of holding $500 in cash. Additional balance sheet examples can be found in Armen A. Alchian and William R. Allen, University Economics, 2nd Edition (Bel mont, California: Wadsworth Publishing Com pany, Inc. 1967), Chapter 32. earnings increased at a faster pace than con sumer prices, as indicated in the chart. From 1965 through 1969, average hourly earnings soared 24 per cent while the Consumer Price Index jumped only 16 per cent. Of course, some of the increases in wage rates may have been caused by workers as they anticipated some DURING THE 6 0 S , AVER AGE H O U R L Y E A R N IN G S ROSE FASTER TH A N THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX. Per Cent Increase A verage H o urly E a rn in g s of Non-Supervisory, Private, Non| Agricultural Workers Consumer Price Index h ___ 1(1957-59 Base) 6-I ""I 'j.i.iiHltt rill I960 1961 1962 196319641965196619671968 1969 FEBRUARY 1970 Equity + Liabilities BUSINESS REVIEW Assets Cash $ 500 Mortgage Held 40,000 in goods and services as it would have before the inflation. The loss in wealth is $20,250 in FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA Balance Sheet— Inflation Loser Market Value after Unanticipated Inflation 27 but not all of the inflation. It is not clear, there fore, that even unanticipated inflation robs the average working man of his wage. When income is taken into account, the prob lem of calculating gains and losses becomes more complicated, but the principle remains the same: The gainer is the guy who owes more money than is owed to him during an unforeseen infla tion. REDISTRIBUTION ON WHAT BASIS? The household sector of the economy has been, by far, the leading net monetary creditor since World War II, while the Federal Government has been in the enviable position of the number one net monetary debtor. (See Table 2.) The nonfinancial corporate sector also has been a net monetary debtor but to a much smaller degree than the Federal Government. To the extent that the household sector holds monetary debts and liabilities of the Federal Government, unantici pated inflation results in a gain for the Govern ment and a loss to the household sector. This transfer of wealth is often called an inflation tax. But this does not end the process, because the Government ( which belongs to all of u s) passes its gain along to someone. The gain in the cor porate sector goes only to net debtor firms. And since people own business firms, they ultimately realize most of the fruits, be they bitter or sweet, that corporations receive from an unexpected rise in the price level. More importantly, however, both the busi ness and household sectors are composed of monetary creditor and debtor units, and it is the unexpected price level increases which cause redistribution of wealth and income within these groups that many people find objection able about inflation. Redistribution of wealth and income on some criterion which is in ac cordance with our concept of fairness or equity is commonplace— witness the numerous subsidy and aid programs, not to mention that allegedly great equalizer, the progressive income tax. When inflation redistributes wealth, however, no consideration is given to individual circum stances, such as poverty, health, or number of dependents. Unanticipated inflation, unlike Robin Hood, takes from some and gives to others, be they poor, rich, young, or old. As a consequence, redistribution may not be on the basis of social goals or objectives. Aside from its lack of social conscience, infla tion has another trait which is reason for further concern. Use of money as a medium of exchange is an integral part of a high-output, TABLE 2 Estimated Net Debtor and Creditor Status (in Billions of Dollars) of Household, Corporate Business, and Government Sectors, 1945-1967* Sector 1945 4-213.8 4.2 1952 + 237.9 - 26.7 Year 1959 1967 Households + 306.4 + 505.0 Corporate Business - 96.5 - 42.0 (nonfinancial) -2 2 1 .8 U.S. Government -1 9 3 .1 -2 0 8 .1 -2 3 4 .9 * Positive sign indicates net creditor and negative sign indicates net debtor. 28 specialized, and complex economy. Money makes possible the efficient flow of goods and services by eliminating the costly barter system. However, inflation makes the use of money more costly, and if severe enough, may cause a reduction in the real output of goods and ser vices. People and business firms, in attempting to economize on the use of money, may resort to practices which tend to reduce specialization. They may spend time and effort searching out exchanges of goods and avoiding organized markets (for example, business firms inte grating vertically to bypass supplier’s and dis tributor’s markets). Such actions would slash productivity in the economy. In a sense, society would be a loser. ANTICIPATING INFLATION— HOW MUCH, FOR HOW LONG, AND AT WHAT COST While there is little evidence that today’s economy is coming apart at the seams, there are unmistakable signs that people, after experi encing four years of soaring prices, have come to expect future price increases. In order to pro tect themselves against the wealth-robbing ef fects of inflation, many people have acted upon their expectations. Consequently, we have high interest rates, built-in wage increases in some industries, reduced holdings of money balances by corporations and individuals, and wealth losses by those of us unfortunate enough to have had more money owed to us than we owed during these years. Two considerable problems face the prospec tive anticipator of inflation. First, he must be able to estimate not only the amount or degree of inflation, but also its duration. That estima tion is tough to make because the range of possible combinations of amounts and dura tion is infinite. For example, will prices rise 4 per cent for the next 20 years and then stabilize, or will they rise 6 per cent next year and then fall for several years? Even the best guru has trouble here. A correct answer would require an accurate forecast of future Govern ment monetary and fiscal decisions in addition to any major event or disaster that would affect the physical stock of goods and services avail able. Instead of making crystal-ball estimates, many people simply negotiate contracts with escalator clauses tied to the cost of living or acquire assets with an equity “ kicker” (such as convertible bonds). Increased use of such clauses and kickers in recent years is a rough gauge of how uncertain people are about the degree of expected inflation. But an accurate estimate of expected changes in the price level is only the first obstacle to be overcome in anticipating inflation. The second and perhaps even more difficult problem centers on the ability of an individual to alter his asset and liability holdings to avoid being hurt by the coming inflation. For example, a person may not be able to reduce his holdings of monetary assets if they are of the nonnegotiable type, such as certain pension plans and insurance policies. Furthermore, he may not be able to contract enough debt to offset his holdings of monetary assets. In either case, even though the individual foresees the inflation, he is unable to forestall a loss in the purchasing power of his wealth when inflation occurs. Closely associated with this problem is that of the cost entailed in altering the form in which wealth is held. The cost of altering asset holdings depends upon the types of assets held; consequently, the cost of anticipating inflation differs among indi viduals holding different sets of assets. Anticipating inflation for fun or profit is no easy matter. In addition, it is an expensive game to play because of the time and energy spent in calculating likely price level changes and attempting to alter the form in which wealth is held. If the costs and uncertainties entailed in anticipating inflation are added to those inefficiencies and inequities associated NOW AVAILABLE: FILM STRIP ON TRUTH IN LENDING FOR CONSUMERS 30 with inflation itself, it is easy to understand the merit of a stable price level. Price stability insures that gainers and losers will be deter mined on traditional values of thrift, hard work, and enterprise, rather than on the ability to anticipate and respond to price level changes. A film strip on Regulation Z, Truth in Lending, for showing to groups of consumers has been developed by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. The 20-minute presentation is designed for a Dukane projector which uses 35mm film and plays a 33 RPM record synchronized to the film. Copies of the film strip can be purchased from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D.C. 20551, for $10.00. It is also available to groups in the Third Federal Reserve District without cost except for return postage. Groups in the Third District may direct re quests for loan of the film to Truth in Lending, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Phila delphia, Pennsylvania 19101. These requests should provide for several alternate presenta tion dates. Others not in the Pennsylvania, New Jersey, or Delaware area should direct requests to their nearest Federal Reserve Bank or branch. FOR THE RECORD... SU M M A R Y Third Federal Reserve District United States Per cent change Per cent change Dec. 1969 from mo. ago year ago 12 mos. 1969 from year ago Dec. 1969 from mo. ago year ago Manufacturing 12 mos. 1969 from year ago LO CA L CH A N G ES Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas* MANUFACTURING Production .................. Electric power consumed Man-hours, total* . . . Employment, total . . . . Wage income* ............ CONSTRUCTION" ........ COAL PRODUCTION . . . 0 0 + 1 + 3 0 + + + 0 1 6 15 3 0 - 3 + 7 - 8 + 2 3 + i + 4 + 5 + 4 - 1 0 - 2 - 2t - 1 + 10 - 9 -1 6 - 4 + io t Payrolls Check Payments* • Total Deposits* •• Per cent change Dec. 1969 from Per cent change Dec. 1969 from Per cent change Dec. 1969 from Per cent change Dec. 1969 from mo. ago Wilmington .. + 19 - 6 + 15 + 1 + 9 0 + 4 + 11 0 - 9 + 8 +181 + 6 + 3 0 - 1 0 + 1 - 1 + 10 -1 0 -1 7 - 3 + 9 +• 3 + 12 - 2 -1 1 + 6 + 15 + 5t 0 + 1 + 5 + 6 + 4 + 5 0 + 6* •Production workers only ••Value of contracts •••Adjusted for seasonal variation 0 mo. ago year ago mo. ago + i - - 1 15 SMSA's ^Philadelphia 0 + 1 year ago year ago mo. ago 8 + 14 +n + 4 + 17 + i + 5 + 2 - 1 + 17 + 6 + 13 i + 2 Altoona ........ + 1 + 4 0 + 8 + 4 + 7 + 3 + 7 Harrisburg . . . + 1 + 2 + 5 + 13 + 4 + 16 + 3 + 8 Johnstown . . . 0 + 8 + 1 + 20 + 11 + + + 1 + 12 2 + 12 + + 0 + 3 - 2 + 2 - 2 + 6 - 5 + 10 - 2 + 11 + 18 + 3 + 12 + 2 + 12 + 1 - 7 + 8 - 1 + 1 + 6 + 15 + 14 + 2 -2 0 Lancaster . . . 0 Lehigh Valley. 0 Philadelphia . 0 Reading ........ Scranton . . . . Y o rk .............. 3 0 - 1 2 0 - 0 + Wilkes-Barre . 0* year ago 0 Trenton ........ PRICES Wholesale .................... Consumer .................... Employ ment Atlantic C ity .. BANKING (All member banks) Deposits ...................... Loans ........................... Investments ................ U.S. Govt, securities. . Other ......................... Check payments*•• . .. Banking 3 0 + + + 1 3 1 + - 1 3 1 1 1 3 + 12 3 + + + + 6 8 6 2 7 + 20 0 + 5 •Not restricted to corporate limits of cities but covers areas of one or more counties. ••All commercial banks. Adjusted for seasonal variation. •••Member banks only. Last Wednesday of the month.