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Return to library When initialed by th se indicati D Mai t in, «0 Hit □ Attfc]ibety o id THE BUSINESS REVIEW □ Me on)a«v THIRD FEDERAL PHILADELPHIA RESERVE DISTRICT FEBRUARY i, 1938 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA ‘ K 5 Business and Banking Conditions in the United States Industrial output declined further in December and, according to prelimi nary reports, showed little change in the first three weeks of January. Prices of raw materials, which had declined sharply in October and No vember, have been maintained since that time. Production. Volume of industrial pro duction declined further in December and the Board’s seasonally adjusted index was at 84 per cent of the 1923 1925 average as compared with 89 in The decline reflected November. chiefly a continued sharp curtailment of activity in the durable goods indus tries. Steel ingot production aver aged about 26 per cent of capacity, output of automobiles and plate glass was reduced considerably, and produc tion of lumber and cement also de clined. Total output of nondurable goods declined seasonally. There was a sharp decrease in output at silk mills, and cotton consumption declined further. At woolen mills and shoe factories, however, output was main tained, following a considerable period of sharp decline. Activity at sugar refineries increased further. Mineral production in December, as in other recent months, was at a high level. Output of crude petroleum and bitu minous coal declined seasonally, while anthracite production increased some what. In the first three weeks of January output of steel and automobiles in creased somewhat from the extreme low levels reached in the latter part of December. Value of construction contracts awarded in December continued in about the same volume as in the pre ceding three months. During this period there was a decline in awards for privately-financed projects, reflect ing in large part further reductions in residential building, while publiclyfinanced work increased. Employment. Factory employment and payrolls showed further declines between the middle of November and the middle of December, and em ployment at mines, on the railroads, and in the construction industry also continued to decrease. The decline in the number employed at factories was larger than in earlier months in in dustries producing durable goods, and was particularly marked in the steel, machinery, and automobile industries. For the nondurable goods industries as a group, the decline in December was about the same as in each of the previous three months, after allow ance for seasonal changes. There was some increase in employment at shoe factories and little change at plants producing tobacco products, while most other industries in this group showed further decreases. Distribution. Department store sales increased in December by about the usual seasonal amount, and the Board’s adjusted index was 90 per cent of the 1923-1925 average as compared with 91 per cent in November and an averEXCESS RESERVES OF MEMBER BANKS •IILPCWS 0* GOULWI* 6ILU0N8 OF 0GLUR9 * 4 1 AU. . MEV8ER BANKS 3 1 YORK CITY 1934 1936 1936 1937 1938 Wednesday figures of estimated excess re serves for all member banks and for selected New York City banks, January 3, 1934 to Jan uary 19, 1938. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FACTORY EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS WHOLESALE PRICES Index of physical volume of production, ad justed for seasonal variation. By months, January 1934 to December 1937, Indexes of number employed and payrolls, without adjustment for seasonal variation. By months, January 1934 to December 1937. Indexes compiled by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. Indexes compiled by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. By weeks, 1934 to week ending January 15, 1938. Page One age of 93 per cent in the first ten months of the year. Mail-order busi ness and sales at variety stores showed somewhat more than the seasonal in crease, while sales of automobiles de clined substantially. Preliminary re ports indicate that in the first half of January sales at department stores were at about the same level as a year ago. Railroad freight-car loadings con tinued to decline in December, and in that month were 18 per cent lower than the average for the first half of the year, making allowance for usual sea sonal change. Commodity prices. Wholesale prices of basic commodities, after declining sharply in the autumn, showed little change in December and the first three weeks of January. Grains, cotton, print cloths, steel scrap, and bitumi nous coal increased somewhat, while leather, rayon, and woodpulp prices were reduced. Prices of a wide vari ety of finished industrial products showed further declines, and livestock products continued to decrease sharply. Bank credit Excess reserves of mem ber banks increased in the four weeks ending January 19 from $1,010,000,000 to $1,370,000,000 and were larger than at any time since May 1. The post holiday decline in money in circula tion, which accounted for this growth of excess reserves, was larger than the increase that occurred before Christmas. The volume of loans at reporting member banks in 101 leading cities declined sharply in the five weeks end ing January 19, while their holdings of investments showed little net change. Declines occurred in loans to security brokers and dealers and in commercial loans, which decreased both in New York City and in other leading cities. Interbank balances were built up dur ing the period, while other deposits decreased somewhat, reflecting largely the repayment of bank loans, partly off set by a return flow of currency from circulation. Money rates and bondyields. l he aver age rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills continued in January at less than *4 of 1 per cent, and yields on Treasury notes and bonds (leclined to new low levels for recent months. Yields on the highest-grade corporate bonds also declined somewhat, while those on the lower-grade railroad is sues rose. Business and Banking Conditions in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Industrial activity in the Philadel phia Federal Reserve District declined further in December and continued in early January at the lowest level since 1935. Output of manufacturing and extractive industries showed an addi tional decrease of 4 per cent, when allowance is made for the usual sea sonal variation. The December index was 76 as compared with 99 a year ago, 81 in December 1935 and 74 in the same month of 1934. Nevertheless, the aver age rate of productive activity for the entire year 1937 was 6 per cent higher than in 1936 and the highest since 1930. The value of building contracts awarded during December declined sharply, although for the whole year it was slightly larger than in 1936. The real estate market generally showed improvement in the first part of 1937 but slackened considerably in the second half of the year. Sales at retail and wholesale during December failed to measure up to the usual seasonal expectations and were smaller than in the same month of the previous year. For the entire year, however, sales were larger than in 1936. Preliminary figures for retail trade in dicate some slight improvement about the middle of January. Inventories of merchandise declined further and were not materially larger than at the end of the preceding year. Industrial employment and payrolls in December declined for the second month and were smaller than a year ago. The sharpest recessions during PRODUCTION AND PRICES the month occurred in the manufactur ing and quarrying industries, whereas retail trade reported the largest gains over November. Early reports from manufacturing industries indicate fur ther declines in January. The burden of public relief increased at the turn of the year largely as a result of industrial conditions, accord ing to a report of the Department of Public Assistance for Pennsylvania. In December the average number of persons receiving public assistance through direct relief, federal work re lief, old age assistance, aid to depend ent children and pensions for the blind approximated 1,300,000, or about 13.5 per cent of the total population in Pennsylvania. Total expenditures for the four types of assistance, excluding INCOME PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PERCENT PERCENT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTKJN _ _ SALES OF _ _ _ _ TARM PRODUCTS (seasonally adjusted) COMMODITY PRICES-US. _(0THER THAN FARM PRODUCTS ___ [INDUSTRIAL PAYROLLS PENNA PRICES OF RAW MATERIALS 1933 Page Two 1934 1935 1936 1937 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 federal work relief and administrative Business Indicators expenses in the year 1937 amounted to Philadelphia Federal Reserve District about $90,000,000. Manufacturing. Activity at manufac Index numbers: percentages of the 1923-1925 average as 100 turing plants in this district declined Adjusted for seasonal variation Not adjusted to an unusually low level at the turn Adjusted indexes allow for the usual seasonal change in activity. Per cent ch ange of the year. The sharp recession that Unadjusted indexes merely the Oct. was in progress during the fourth actual change whichreflector may not Dec. 1937 Nov Dec Dec. 1937 1937 Dec Oct. Nov Dec. may 1936 1937 1937 from from 1936 1937 1937 1937 be typical. quarter of 1937, however, appears 12 Month1 Year mos. lately to have been leveling off some 1936 ago ago what. 99 r 85 r 79 76p 89r 81 4 _ 23 + 6 96 74p Demand for factory products slack Industrial production Manufacturing—total............... 98 83 r 76 72p 87 77 70p 5 — 26 + 6 94 Durable goods....................... +15 ened considerably during December 90 85 75 08p 10 94 Consumers' goods................. 104 81 r 75 73p 2 _ 30 + 0 and the volume of new business con Metal products...................... 109 95 98 81 69 81 72 _ 11 _ 33 +18 104 Textile products.................... 109 71r 59 56p 73 r 62 55p - 4 105 5 — 48 tinued greatly reduced. Unfilled or Transportation equipment. 73 96 93r 85 — 8 + 17 92 90 87 +17 73 Food products........................ 77 75 77 77p ders likewise declined and were much 77 7yp + 2 + 3 80 + 4 76 Tobacco and products......... 111 93 113 113 63 95 86 9 23 + 3 81 smaller than a year earlier. At the Building materials................ 49 42 38 35 — 9 — 29 44 38 32 + 11 45 Chemicals and products___ 129 130 132 126 118p 125 119p + 9 127 5 — 7 majority of reporting plants, stocks of Leather and products........... 141 100 106 91 88p 95 94p + 3 134 1 — 33 Paper and printing............... 94 92 93 90 92 finished goods did not change mate 90 r 91 + 2 — 3 + 9 95 Coal mining................................ 75 57 67 68p 65 68p + 6 — 8 71 - 8 74 rially in the month but in most cases Anthracite............................... 73 55 70 67 69p 65 70p + 8 — 4 - 9 72 Bituminous............................. 88 72 77 68 r 59 61r 56 + 2 92 8 — 36 they were larger than at the close of Crude oil...................................... 487 518 520 531 + 2 + 9 +15 458 518 504 499 Electric power 1936. Inventories of raw materials, Output..................................... 237 237 233 228 + 6 254 244 242 244 2 4 Sales, totalX............................ on the other hand, continued to de 231 234 231 225 _ 3 _ 3 + 7 238 234 238 232 __ Sales to industriest............... 176 178 164 155 - 5 — 12 + 6 167 172 168 148 cline during December and at the end Employment and wages—Pa. of the month were smaller than a year Factory—Wage earners.................. 86 81 9* + 9* 88 91 Payrolls.......................................... ago. 95 83 74 91 Man-hours (1927-28 = 100).... 75 66 11 * 9q* +11* 93 r 87 Prices of factory products in this General (1932 = 100) Employment................................. section decreased further in December, 4- 8* 125 126 121 118 Payrolls.......................................... +19* 177r 185 166 155 continuing a downward tendency since early autumn. The price index pre Building and real estate Contracts awardedf—total........... 59 55 59 61 57 59 66 + 12 + 13 + 2 54 pared by the Bureau of Labor Statis Residential................................... 41 40 38 28 37 30 + 6 39 40 28 19 Non-residentialf........................... 53 74 72 75 102 + 35 + 92 +20 48 80 92 tics for commodities other than farm Public works and utilities!.... 94 71 73 85 65 73 _ 12 _ 22 -23 110 69 Permits for building—17 cities... . 20 products and foods declined appreci 28 +33 14 28 22 23 8 12 __ 49 — 41 Real estate deeds—Philadelphiaf . 50 61 58 61 57 62 47 _ 25 +24 61 7 ably during the fourth quarter of 1937, Writs for Sheriff sales—Phila.. 905 509 328 401 + 22 — 56 -14 923 254 367 409 but fluctuated narrowly in the three Distribution Retail trade —sales.................... weeks immediately following the close 84 83 79 78 + 3 138 95 92 129 7 1 stocks................ 76 83 92 91 74p 80 78p _ 2 + 3 72 of the year. In the week ended Janu Wholesale trade—sales................... 03 r 86 7 88 86p — 2 +12 106 r 99 101 97p stocks................ 72 r 78 82 80 71p 77 76p __ 2 + 6 67 r ary 22 this index was about 84 per Life insurance sales......................... 93 107 98 101 85 96 81 — 15 13 98 New passenger auto, registrations + 10* 174 90 101 102 41 * + 1* cent of the 1926 average, or approxi Hotels—Occupancy.. . (1934 = 100) 125 108 2* -F 7* llOr 131 14* Income, total (1934 = 100) mately the same as a month before and 1* + 4* 135r 139 146 136 7* Freight car loadings—total............. 83 67 52 74 61 60 58 _ 4 30 + 6 74 Merchandise and miscellaneous. 83 little higher than a year ago. 67 72 61 49 61 56 __ 8 — 32 + 7 72 Coal............................................. 78 67 77 68 64 62 61 — 3 — 23 + 1 83 Factory employment and wage pay ments in this district declined respec Business liquidations Number............................. 39 73 — 7* 51 Amount of liabilities___ tively 6 and 10 per cent from Novem +74* 18 31 16 38 ber to December. Larger than seasonal Payment of accounts Check payments.................... 97 87 decreases likewise occurred in Janu 86 92 80 85 + 6 + e 104 89 12 Rate of collections (actual) Retail trade........................ ary, according to preliminary reports 30 32 34 28 33 28 _ 15 7 33 30 Wholesale trade................. _ 76 77 75r 77 + 2 + 1 74 82 78 81 covering the payroll period nearest to the middle of the month. Despite sharp Prices—Umted States Wholesale (1926 = 100). + 7* 85 83 82 recessions in both employment and Farm products............... + 7* 88 76 73 4* 80 Foods............................... wage payments during the fourth quar Other commodities.... 84 84 + 2* + 7* 85 Retail pood........................ 83 ter of 1937, for the year as a whole the Philadelphia..................... Scranton........................... number of workers on the rolls aver 77 77 0* - 5* + 3* 81 80 aged 9 per cent more than in 1936 % change from Dec. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. and the amount of wages disbursed (In millions of dollars) 1936 1937 Month Year 1937 1937 1937 showed a gain of 22 per cent. ago ago In Pennsylvania factories, the pre Banking and Credit Federal Reserve Bank liminary index of employment in De Bills discounted......................... 5 0.4 ! 2.1 5 2.6 & 2.9 +12 +625 t 0.8 Other bills and securities........ 214 cember was 81 per cent of the 1923-25 217 217 219 221 +2 1 + 7 Member bank reserves............ 383 360 365 - 3 361 355 Reserve ratin (per cent).......... average and the lowest for the year. 73.1 72.5 72.5 72.3 71.7 2 - 1 Reporting member banks This compared with the high for 1937 Loans............................................ 5 445 5 479 5 464 I 469 + 3 > 460 - 2 1 Investments................................ 737 692 681 677 of about 92 between April and Sep 662 - 10 Deposits (a)..................................... 1,478 1,374 1,374 - 10 1,353 1,336 - 4 1 Bankers’ acceptances outstanding. tember and an index of 88 in Decem 13.5 14.6 15.8 16.1 15.4 + 14 ber, 1936. Similarly, the payroll index * Computed from data unadjusted for seasonal variation. p—Preliminary. r—Revised+ Not included in production index, (a) Less cash items in process of collection. at 74 was the lowest of any month t 3-month moving daily average centered at 3rd month. Page Three METAL PRODUCTS-EMPLOYE HOURS WORKED OUTPUT OF TEXTILE GOODS PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PERCENT PERCENT STEEL WORKS AND ROLLING MILLS WOOLENS < l AND \ WORSTEDS FOUNDRIES AND MACHINE SHOPS "COTTON 50 — 1932 1933 1934 1935 last year, the highest point reached being 104 in April. In December of the previous year this index was 91. The number of hours actually worked declined steadily after August and in December reached the lowest level since 1935. The number of wage earners em ployed in Delaware factories declined 6 per cent from November to Decem ber and the amount of wage disburse ments decreased 4 per cent. Plants located in southern New Jersey also reported pronounced recessions in em ployment and payrolls. Output of manufactures again de clined sharply in December and for the third consecutive month was below the level of the preceding year. This bank’s seasonally adjusted index de creased to 72 per cent of the 1923-25 average as compared with 76 in No vember, 83 in October and nearly 98 in December, 1936. In the fourth quarter, the index averaged 77 as against an average of 94 in the first nine months of 1937 and 92 in the last quarter of 1936 when production was expanding rapidly. For the year as a whole, however, productive activity was about 6 per cent above the 1936 level and the highest for any twelve month period since 1930. In durable goods' industries the re cession in December as in the previous few months was much greater than at plants making consumer’s goods. Groups producing metal products, in cluding pig iron, steel, and steel cast ings, and building materials and transportation equipment showed the greatest declines as compared with November. Sharp decreases also were reported in the output of such non durable goods as cotton textiles, silk, knit goods, leather and cigars. Pro Page Four 1936 1937 1932 1933 duction of woolens and worsteds, floor coverings and shoes, however, was un usually well maintained. In the case of sugar refining, activity expanded very sharply and was at a much higher level than in December, 1936. Production of electric power, after seasonal adjustment, decreased further in December, continuing a downward tendency since August. Total sales were smaller than in November and consumption of electrical energy for industrial purposes decreased by a larger percentage than it usually does in December. Nevertheless, for the entire year 1937 the total output of electric power was 6 per cent larger than in 1936 and sales for all purposes were 7 per cent greater. Coal and other fuels. Demand for Pennsylvania anthracite has changed little since last month, except for an improvement in takings of steam sizes. Although production of hard coal in creased in December, it was 4 per cent less than a year earlier and was the smallest amount mined in December since 1933. Total production for the year approximated 50,091,000 tons as compared with 54,760,000 in 1936, a low of 49,541,000 in 1933, and an aver age of 79,542,000 tons for the years 1923-1929. The market for bituminous coal con tinues quiet, owing principally to a les sened demand on the part of industry and a decline in the needs of railroads and public utilities. Colliery output sustained additional losses in Decem ber, continuing a downward trend since September. Production of soft coal fell off 36 per cent in December when compared with the correspond ing month of the year before, and reached the lowest point for the en tire year. The volume of bituminous 1934 1935 1936 1937 coal mined in Pennsylvania last year was the greatest since 1930. (Output and shipment figures are daily averages) Anthracite Production.................tons Shipments..................tons Stocks................1000 tons Prices........... (1926=100) Employment.............. No. Bituminous Production................. tons Shipments.......... No. cars Prices........... (1926=100) Employment..............No. Coke Prod. .. .(1923-25=100) Prices............(1926 = 100) Gas and fuel oil Prod. .. .(1923-25 = 100) Prices............(1926-100) Per cent change from 1937 Month Year ago ago 182,800 169,785 2,396f 80.0 97,862 + + + + 282,769 25,275 101.1 123,828 -12 - 5 + 2 - 5 -36 -21 + 4 - 8 84.3 105.5 -15 + 0 -35 + 8 144.2* 76.1 - 5 + 3 - 0 + 8 2 1 2 0 1 - 4 6 5 3 7 Source: Bureau of Mines and Bureau of Labor Statistics. * Estimated. t First of month. Output of by-product coke declined further in December, continuing a sharp recession from the high levels prevailing during the first nine months of 1937. Production was about 35 per cent smaller than in December 1936. Total output in 1937 reached approximately 2,608,000 tons, a gain of 11 per cent over the previous year and the highest annual production in the industry. Production of gas and fuel oils showed increases in four con secutive months, but declined about 5 per cent in December. Building and real estate. Awards of building contracts in this district in December approximated $13,600,000, a decline of 17 per cent from November and 6 per cent as compared with a year before. The decrease in the month was much sharper than usual and reflected a marked reduction in the dollar vol ume of contracts let for all types of construction except public works and utilities and educational buildings. VALUE OF BUILDING CONTRACTS AWARDED MERCANTILE TRADE PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PERCENT PERCENT WHOLESALE DOLLAR SALES __________i\A .PRICES OF BUILDING MATERIALS (laas-.oo) ft I *1 l i * 40 ' V RETAIL DOLLAR SALES NON RESIDENTIAL RESIDENTIAL 1933 Building contracts Philadelphia Federal Reserve District 1934 1935 1936 Per cent change Dec. 1937 1937 From (000’s from omitted) month 12 mos. ago 1936 Residential...................... $ 2,092 Apts, and hotels......... 234 Family houses............. 1,858 Non-residential.............. 7,152 Commercial.................. 922 Factories....................... 115 Educational.................. 1,366 All other........................ 4,749 - 34 - 39 - 33 - 28 - 36 - 72 + 101 - 36 + 5 - 0 + 6 +20 + 6 +66 -27 +72 Total buildings........ $ 9,244 Public works and utilities.................................. 4,335 - 29 +13 + 30 -23 Grand total............... $13,579 - 17 + 2 Source: F. W. Dodge Corporation. For the entire year 1937 the value of all contracts awarded was about $174,000,000 or 2 per cent more than in 1936. This contract total was the largest for any year since 1931 but it was quite small in comparison with the peak of $500,000,000 awarded in 1928 and the 1923-1929 average of $390, 000,000. Contracts let for residential buildings were 5 per cent greater than in 1936 and constituted 31 per cent of the dollar volume of all contract awards as compared with 44 per cent in 1928 and 19 per cent in 1934. Wholesale prices of building ma terials in the country as a whole aver age nearly 10 per cent higher in 1937 than in 1936. Quotations for many essential materials advanced sharply in the early months of 1937 and in May reached the highest levels in the past decade. With a few exceptions prices showed a declining tendency in the succeeding four months and a more definite recession in the last quarter of the year. In the first three weeks of January quotations showed some fur ther decrease. The local real estate situation showed a mixed trend of improvement and re 1937 1938 1932 cession during 1937. In the early months of the year the renting demand for houses and apartments was more active than in any period since the de pression, and rentals generally showed a pronounced upward trend. Sev eral new residential operations were started and sales of houses ranging in price from $4500 to $6500 increased appreciably. The supply of commercial and industrial space diminished rapidly and in some cases manufacturers made plans for expanding their plants. Since early summer, however, the real estate market has been unusually quiet. Many recently completed dwell ings have not been sold and there has been a pronounced slackening in the demand for commercial space. The number of residential properties avail able for rent has shown no appreciable increase, but the upward adjustment of rentals, which had been in progress for more than a year, has not continued. Distribution, trade and service. The dollar volume of retail trade sales by department, apparel, shoe and credit stores was 7 per cent smaller in De cember last than in the same month of 1936. All lines showed declines. The expansion in sales from November to December exceeded 40 per cent, failing by a small margin to equal the usual seasonal rate of increase. The ad justed index thus declined only slightly from 79 per cent of the 1923-1925 aver age in November to 78 in December. Aggregate sales in the year 1937 were 3 per cent larger than in 1936. Dollar sales in eight important branches of wholesale trade were 7 per cent smaller in December 1937 than a year before. All lines except drugs showed losses. Compared with No vember, dollar sales in wholesale lines 933 1934 1935 1936 1937 declined about 2 per cent more than usual. Aggregate sales were 12 per cent greater in the year 1937 than in 1936. In both retail and wholesale trade stocks of goods decreased more sharply than usual from November to Decem ber. At the end of the year, however, inventories at retail were 3 per cent larger than on December 31, 1936, and at wholesale they were about 6 per cent greater. Total shipments of commodities by railroad freight in this area on a sea sonally adjusted basis declined 4 per cent in December, owing largely to smaller loadings of merchandise and miscellaneous freight. While loadings in December were 30 per cent smaller than a year ago, total shipments in 1937 exceeded those of the previous year by nearly 6 per cent and were the larg est since 1930. The volume of rail freight consisting chiefly of manufac tures originating in the Philadelphia industrial area declined further in De cember and was 13 per cent less than a year ago. Sales of new passenger automobiles in this district increased slightly in December but they were nearly 41 per cent smaller than in the same month last year. Total sales for the Hotel business Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Room occupancy.................... Per cent of capacity used: Dec. 1937................ 50.0 Nov. 1937................ 54.9 Dec. 1936................ 47.7 Income from: Guest rooms........................ Food....................................... Other sources....................... Total revenue.................. Dec., per cent change from Month Year ago ago 1937 from 12 mos. 1936 + o -14 +0 -2 +7 -20 + 0 + 6 +3 +1 -0 +7 +4 +1 - 7 +1 +4 Page Five entire year 1937 approximated 218,000 units; they were about 10 per cent greater than in 1936 and were the larg est in the history of the industry. Room occupancy at non-resort com mercial hotels declined 14 per cent in December and was 2 per cent smaller than a year ago. Total revenue showed a gain of 1 per cent when compared with a year earlier. Banking conditions. In the latter part of December and the first half of Jan uary the reserve balances of member banks were substantially larger than in the first half of December, owing chiefly to the return of currency from circulation after the holidays. In the first fifteen days of January reserves of Reserve balances of member banks (Dollar figures in millions) Ratio Re Ex of ex Held quired cess cess to re quired Reserve city banks Dec. 1-15................... $207.4 *184.6 $22.8 12% Dec. 16-31................... 216.2 185.0 31.2 17” Jan. 1-15................... 233. G 185.9 47.7 26” Country banks Dec. 1-15................... Dec. 16-31................... Jan. 1-15................... 142.3 115.0 27.3 24 ” 144.1 115.5 28.6 25” 145.8 114.4 31.4 27” all member banks in this district aver aged $379,400,000, as against $349,700, 000 a month earlier. There was an increase in the excess over require ments from $50,100,000 to $79,100,000, or from 17 to 26 per cent of require ments. From $3,200,000 on December 15, this bank’s discounts for member banks declined to $2,300,000 on January 19. Small though this figure was, it repre sented accommodation to a substantial number of banks. The principal change in the reserve bank’s earning assets over the turn of the year, however, was a decrease of $5,200,000 to $211, 600,000 in its participation in System holdings of United States securities. This decline was due to an adjustment made in the distribution of securities among the various reserve banks in ac cordance with the formula for allot ment prescribed by the Federal Open Market Committee, based on earning requirements for each quarterly period. The first week of the period from December 15 to January 19 was marked by substantial payments of in come taxes to the Treasury and the final increase in currency demand prior to the holidays. However, there was a sufficient inflow of funds from other sections to offset demands upon the banks, and their reserve balances increased somewhat. Over the subse quent four weeks there was a substanPags Six Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Jan. 19, (Dollar figures in 1938 millions) Bills discounted.......... * 2.3 Bills bought................. 0.1 Industrial advances. . 3.5 United States securi ties ......................... 211.6 Total bills and se curities .................. Federal reserve note circulation................ Member bank reserve deposits.................... U.S Treasurer—gen eral account............. Foreign bank deposits Other deposits............. Total reserves............. Reserve ratio............... Changes in— Five weeks Reporting member banks (000,000’s omitted) One year -$0.9 - 0.2 - 0.1 +$ 1.9 - 0.3 - 1.0 - 5.2 + 16.8 $217.5 -S8.4 +*17.4 311.2 -12.2 + 7.6 377.7 +24.2 - 8.2 6.8 16.5 1.8 520.2 72.9% -14.5 - 4.7 - 0.3 + 0,1 + 0.8% - 4.9 + 7.6 + 0.0 - 10.9 - 1.7% tial adverse balance in commercial and financial transactions with other dis tricts, but the return of money from circulation and net Treasury disburse ments were in sufficient volume more than to compensate for amounts which moved out through the settlements. The five week period as a whole shows a small gain in the interdistrict settlements and a close balance between Treasury receipts and local disburse ments. The decrease in currency de mand was strongly marked, exceeding the increase prior to Christmas. Demand deposits declined $13,000, 000 at reporting banks in the week of December 22, largely as a result of tax payments. In the following four weeks such deposits increased $10,000, 000 as currency returned from circula tion, but the principal factor respon sible for a gain in total deposits was an increase of over $20,000,000 in funds held for other banks. Changes in other types of deposits were minor. Increases of $23,000,000 in reserves and $9,000,000 in balances with corre spondents were reported between De cember 15 and January 19. This ex pansion in available funds reflected not only the growth in deposits but also a reduction in loans and investments. Investments decreased $15,000,000 in the first three weeks and increased $8,000,000 in the following two weeks. The net reduction of $7,000,000 re Changes in— Jan. 19, 1938 Assets Commercial, industrial and agricultural loans: On securities........................ * Otherwise secured and unsecured.............................. Open market paper................ Loans to brokers and dealers in securities................... Other loans to purchase or carry securities.................... Loans on real estate.............. Loans to banks........................ Other loans: Five One weeks year 48 + 4 161 24 + 9 4 20 + 1 - 9 35 59 3 + 1 1 1 + 4 i - 2 * * 50 Otherwise secured and unsecured.............................. 59 Total loans........................... $ Lnited States Government 459 -* 3 +$ 6 305 - 5 - 47 92 261 - 2 + 3 - 41 Obligations fully guar, by Other securities....................... Total loans and investments..................................... *1,117 Reserve with Federal Reserve Bank........................... 245 17 Balances with other banks. . 145 Other assets—net................... 84 * -S10 —$79 + 23 - 3 + 9 - 4 - 18 -$ 3 + 3 —$40 + 13 - 30 - 49 Liabilities Demand deposits, adjusted . * Time deposits.......................... U. S. Government deposits . Interbank deposits................. 782 274 25 282 + 22 Other liabilities....................... Capital account...................... 19 226 - 6 1 — - - 7 3 1 * Comparable figures not yet available. fleeted principally a decrease of $5, 000,000 in United States Government securities to a point $47,000,000 under a year ago. Miscellaneous securities, chiefly the obligations of corporations, states and other political units, cur rently are $41,000,000 smaller than a year earlier. Loans decreased $3,000,000, but on the 19th still were $6,000,000 larger than a year ago. The principal changes in the last five weeks have been an in crease of $4,000,000 in open market paper and a decline of $5,000,000 in commercial loans. Loans to commerce, industry and agriculture on January 19 were $209,000,000, or about the same amount as that reported on December 8 but $15,000,000 below the peak reached in September. In the last half of December, total MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND RELATED FACTORS Changes in weeks ended— Changes in five weeks Philadelphia Federal Reserve District (Millions of dollars) Dec. 22 Dec. 29 Jan. 5 Sources of funds: Reserve bank credit extended in district.... Commercial transfers (chiefly interdistrict). . Treasury operations.............................................. + l.o +25.5 -17.3 - 1.8 + 1.8 + 6.4 + 0.4 - 2.1 + 4.6 - 0.8 -10.2 + 3.1 + 0.7 -11.3 + 2.8 - 0.5 + 3.7 - 0.4 Total..................................................................... + 9.2 + 6.4 + 2.9 - 7.9 - 7.8 + 2.8 + + + 4.9 4.4 0.1 0.0 - 9.4 +15.5 + 0.3 - 0.0 - 9.0 +13.8 - 1.2 - 0.7 + + + 5.0 5.9 0.8 2.3 -22.7 +24.2 - 0.3 + 1.6 + 9.2 + 6.4 + 2.9 - 7.9 - 7.8 + 2.8 Uses of funds: Currency demand................................................. Member bank reserve deposits.......................... ‘‘Other deposits” at reserve bank.................... Unexpended capital funds.................................. Total..................................................................... p Preliminary. Jan. 12p Jan. 19p 4.2 3.6 0.1 0.0 deposits of all member banks in this district averaged $2, 706,000,000, or $168,000,000 smaller than a year ago. The bulk of the decline, $162,000,000, occurred at the reserve city banks. Deposits at country banks in cities and towns of over 15,000 population also showed a decrease of $15,000,000, but there was an increase of $9,000,000 at banks in smaller centers. REPORTING MEMBER BANKS MILLIONS PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Employment and Payrolls in Pennsylvania (All figures are rounded from original data) Manufacturing Indexes Employment* Payrolls* (Indexes are percentages of the 1923-25 average Per cent Per cent taken as 100. Total and group indexes are weight Dec. change from Dec. change from 1937 1937 ed proportionately.) index Dec. Nov. index Dec. Nov. 1936 1937 1936 1937 All manufacturing......... Iron, steel and products . Non-ferrous metal prods. Transportation equip. . . Textiles and clothing.... Textiles........................... Clothing.......................... Food products................... Stone, clay and glass.... Lumber products.............. Chemicals and products . Leather and products___ Paper and printing........... Printing.......................... Others: Cigars and tobacco.... Rubber tires, goods......... Musical instruments . . 1600 DEPOSITS* TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS 1000 Employehoursf Dec. 1937— per cent change from Dec. Nov. 1936 1937 81 78 116 61 87 84 99 104 79 54 90 80 98 94 - 9 - 4 - 2 -11 -20 -19 -24 - 1 + 3 -20 - 3 -16 +1 +1 - 6 - 7 - 3 - 9 - 7 - 8 - 6 - 1 - 7 -10 — 5 - 3 - 2 - 1 74 76 136 55 68 67 74 106 63 45 92 66 100 98 -19 -22 + 3 -17 -33 -33 -31 + 5 -13 -21 - 3 -26 + 0 + 2 -11 -12 + 2 -17 -13 -14 - 9 - 1 -19 -14 - 6 - 1 +1 + 2 -29 -32 -15 -25 -39 -39 -35 - 4 -24 -31 -20 -33 - 7 - 2 -11 -12 _ 2 -16 - 9 - 9 - 7 - 3 -13 -16 - 8 - 4 + 1 + 2 68 77 55 +1 -11 + 0 - 3 - 2 + X 65 77 58 +10 -19 + 5 - 3 + 7 -31 - 7 + 2 +10 * Figures from 2340 plants. +10 f Figures from 2093 plants. INVESTMENTS General Index Numbers Covering twelve branches of trade and industry LOANS (Indexes are percentages of the 1932 average taken as 100. In dividual indexes are combined proportionately into general in dex number.) BALANCES AT RESERVE BANK AND OTHER BANKS 1935 General index 193 7 Less cash Hens in process of collection 1938 (weighted)___ Manufacturing............................. Anthracite mining....................... Bituminous coal mining............. Quarrying and non-met. mining Crude petroleum producing. . . Public utilities.............................. Retail trade................................. Wholesale trade........................... Hotels.............................................. Laundries....................................... Dyeing and cleaning................... Employment Dec. 1937 index 118 127 82 117 105 162 100 142 117 116 102 100 Per cent change from Dec. 1936 Nov. 1937 -5 -9 -7 -8 -7 +i +8 -2 +2 +8 +0 +2 - 6 + 1 — 5 -10 + o - 0 + 17 - 1 + 0 - 3 - 5 - 2 Payrolls Dec. 1937 index 155 181 87 213 148 177 111 153 119 134 118 109 Per cent change from Dec. 1936 Nov. 1937 -12 -19 - 6 -11 + 4 + 2 -21 + 0 + 1 + 13 - 1 + 3 - 3 - 9 -15 -11 -27 +11 +10 + 4 + 6 + 14 + 9 +12 Percentage change—December 1937 from December 1936 City areas* Manufacturing Employment Allentown. . . . Altoona........... Harrisburg. . . Johnstown___ Lancaster. . . . Philadelphia. . Reading.......... Scranton......... Trenton........... Wilkes-Barre. Williamsport. Wilmington.. Y ork................ Wage payments - 4 -15 -13 -44 -14 -38 -13 - 7 -23 -19 - 1 -11 - 8 - 9 - 7 -12 -20 6 - 9 -17 - - 9 -11 - 8 -22 Building permits (value) - 51 - 71 4- 11 + 12 + 175 - 20 - 81 + 1 34 91 68 68 89 Debits + - 5 7 3 3 - 2 — 15 - 6 - 8 + - 6 3 -10 +19 0 Retail tirade sales - 2 -17 + 3 -13 +- 6 1 - INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS PENNSYLVANIA 12 MANUFACTURING AND NON - MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES AND SERVICES PERCENT - 7 2 - 4 +- +■ 1 + 1 PAYROLLS December 1937 from November 1937 Allentown. . . . Altoona........... Harrisburg. . . Johnstowp.... Lancaster. . . . Philadelphia. . Reading.......... Scranton......... Trenton........... Wilkes-Barre. Williamsport. Wilmington.. York................. - 4 - 4 - 6 -15 - 5 - 7 -26 - 9 -25 - 10 +- 86 6 - 6 - - 5 -12 - 6 -11 - 0 - 7 - 4 - 4 - 44 - 67 66 - 40 + 115 - 49 - 74 +- 5 - 34 - + 9 + + 10 12 + 24 + 15 1 + + + 21 8 + 14 + 41 + 21 + 21 + 6 +126 +72 +64 +55 +60 +73 +35 +59 +59 +57 +55 EMPLOYMENT +86 1932 1933 1934 1935 “ Area not restricted to the corporate limits of cities given here. Page Seven 01JTPUT Index numbers of individual lines of trade and manufacture OF MANUFAC:tures PHILAD ELPHIA FED :ral reser VE DISTRICT SCASONAL VAdlA PERCENT STEEL IOO y A A 75 Philadelphia Federal Reserve District 25 O Index numbers: percentages of the 1923-1925 average as 100 Dec. 1937 fro m Month Year ago ago 75 25 Per cent change Unadjusted indexes reflect merely the actual change which may or may not Dec. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1930 1937 1937 1937 be typical. 1937 from 12 mos. 1936 Dec. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1936 1937 1937 1937 150 83 74 81 no 87 92 Stock s of goods Total of all stores........................... 76 83 Department................................. 56 60 Women’s apparel....................... 109 102 71 Shoe............................................... 67 Credit............................................ lOlr 114 79 78 78 72 67 71 94 108 75 72 80 81 - 1 - 7 + 6 +15 - 3 + 2 — — — — — 80 78p 59 56p 105 109 71 71 104 103 - 2 + + 4 - 1 ~ 1 _ + + + 7 5 3 6 5 14 3 3 6 4 1 3 129 130 120 162 93 125 138 137 124 173 99 146r 95 85 85 123 89 112 92 89 77 113 73 103 V" 92 68 129 78 121 91 74p 69 53p 129 102 75 66 117 95 50 WOOLENS AND WORS TEDS IOO i 75 50 - 7* 4.10 4.41 25 O HOSIERY 150 125 KX) 75 Wholesale trade AA in/v A/V 50 Sales Total of all lines.............................. 93 r 86 Boots and shoes.......................... 43 36 Drugs............................................ 105r 109 Dry goods.................................... 58 r 50 Electrical supplies...................... 81 r 85 Groceries...................................... 128 115 Hardware..................................... 69 63 Jewelry.......................................... 62 69 71 Paper............................................. 91 88 86p 31 28 106 113p 46 47 87 7 op 124 125p GO 60 59 49p 74 69 - 2 -10 + 7 + 2 -14 +1 - 0 -16 - 6 Stocks of goods Total of all lines.............. ............... 72 r 78 Boots and shoes.......................... 44 30 50 Dry goods.................................... 44 Electrical supplies...................... 120r 112 Groceries...................................... 72 r 81 Hardware..................................... 69 85 Paper............................................. 61 61 77 76p 24 31 50 49 123 116 77 74p 83 73 58 59 - 2 +30 - 1 - 6 - 4 -12 +1 — + — — — — — — + — + + + 7 34 17 19 7 2 12 20 24 97p 27 115p 49 125p 126p 66 lOlp 66 106 r 41 107 r 60 r 134 r 129 75 126 + 8 87 99 44 106 67 109 125 72 92 75 101 33 109 60 114 135 67 84 78 67 r 34 38 107 r 74 r 65 59 82 30 52 125 87 81 62 80 71p 22 24 48 43 133 103 84 77p 77 70 58 57 +12 -12 +10 + 9 +44 + 6 + 7 6 29 12 4 4 7 4 Rate of stock turnover 12 months (actual, not indexes). + 4* 6.49 6.77 .... A CEMENT 75 50 /M 25 r\ a J O LUMB R PRODUCT S 50 25 O PAPER AND WOOD P ULP ------- ------- V 75 50 25 SHOES 225 65 102 80 123 132 26 88 37 169 106 97 60 182 125 156 64 58 35 75 87 60 114 118 16 87 43 291 88 40 49 54 99 104 50 54 31 90 86 58 30 63 51 110 91 72 70 98 97 174 111 110 90 107 94 90 84 159 174 134 123 50 69 59 110 111 22 r 79 39 284 78r 33 38 44 86 lOOr 48 37 r 32 r 35 58 54 89 108 19 63 32 281 71 36 33 52 79 92 44 35 28 87 81 79 136 54 56p 93 84 63 65 95 97 106 120 85 69p 90 86 82 81 170 164p 103 87 * Computed from data unadjusted for seasonal variation. * Page Eight vA IOO 72 54 101 63 94 r + + + + + + 3 1 0 5 2 Rate of stock turnover 12 months (actual, not indexes).. A 125 75 Sales Total of all stores........................... 84 Department................................. 76 Men’s apparel............................. 74 Women’s apparel....................... 115 Shoe.............................................. 77 Credit............................................ 95 r Pig iron................................................ Steel........................................................ Iron castings........................................ Steel castings....................................... Electrical apparatus........................... Motor vehicles................... ................. Automobile parts and bodies.......... Locomotives and cars........................ Shipbuilding......................................... Silk manufactures............................... Woolens and worsteds....................... Cotton products.................................. Carpets and rugs................................. Hosiery.................................................. Underwear............................................ Cement.................................................. Brick....................................................... Lumber and products........................ Bread and bakery products............. Slaughtering, meat packing............. Sugar refining...................................... Canning and preserving.................... Cigars..................................................... Paper and wood pulp........................ Printing and publishing.................... Shoes...................................................... Leather, goat and kid........................ Explosives....................................• • ■ • Paints and varnishes.......................... Petroleum products............................ Coke, by-product................................ — O Retail trade Output of manufactures J A 50 Not adjusted Adjusted for seasonal variation Adjusted indexes allow for the usual seasonal change in activity. f\ 50 46 -30 -16 — 43 -10 — 33 -19 — 27 - 3 — 18 -12 — 27 -19 — 28 -18 — 12 - 1 + 66 - 8 — 33 +ii — 63 -14 — 46 +19 — 71 - 8 — 36 - 8 — 41 - 9 _ 31 - 5 — 38 -11 — 19 - 1* + 1* - 7 10 +72 +136 + 3 — 12 - 9 — 24 + 4 _ 10 + 2 — 2 31 +13 -18 _ 37 — - 4 _ 20 - 1 — 10 - 3 + 4 -16 35 +44 65 +15 96 +13 74 +20 118 +20 128 +43 21 86 +30 37 +15 178 + 2 108 -17 90 +12 64 -11 172 - 5 121 - 7 154 - 0 53 +20 56 +15 34 + 4* 90 + 3 96 - 2 37 + 2 64 + 2 79 + 8 73 + 9 99 + 8 148 - 2 120 + 6 106 + 8 87 + 9 158 +11 130 p—Preliminary. 75 87 63 109 129 14 82 41 279 90 43 50 59 109 113 56 54 32 95 90 26 69 112 72 98 120 93 95 90 175 120 51 66 61 103 11-7 19r 72 36 284 79 r 35 40 48 98 lOlr 48 37 r 32r 91r 96 51 59 111 63 96 100 82 90 85 171 99 35 54 50 86 105 15 62 32 295 73 34 35 50 77 91 36 34 28 91 87 88 58p 61 66 98 102 75p 86 79 163p 84 r—Revised. 200 H\ 175 150 125 IOO y A l 75 .______ 150 fit V LEATHER - GOAT ANC 125 IOO A IP- V-- 75 KID v V -\ 200 175 \r^ 150 t A . 125 r 100 CIGARS 150 125 too 75 50 1933 1934 19 3 S 1936 1937
@FedFRASER