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THE BUSINESS REVIEW ! ^ ®4ft% ■® % , THIRD FEDERAL Am PHILADELPHIA ' !'ill RESERVE DISTRICT APRIL i, 1939 55 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA . _______ ^ ■%- Business and Banking Conditions in the United States In February industrial activity con tinued at the January rate, without showing the usual rise, and retail trade increased less than seasonally. In the first three weeks of March, however, industrial activity and trade showed seasonal increases. Commodity prices continued to show little change. Production. Volume of industrial pro duction was at about the same rate in February as in the two previous months, although usually there is an increase, and the Board’s seasonally adjusted index declined further to 98 per cent of the 1923-1925 average. In the steel industry activity did not show the usual seasonal advance. Pig iron production increased, but new orders for steel were in limited volume and ingot production remained at about 54 per cent of capacity throughout the month. There was some decline in automobile assemblies, following a period of considerable increase. Out put of lumber and plate glass continued to decrease in February, while cement production, which had been curtailed in January, increased considerably. In the first three weeks of March steel INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Index of physical volume of production, ad justed for seasonal variation. By months, January 1934 to February 1939. production increased to about 56 per cent of capacity and automobile out put was also in somewhat larger volume. Textile production in February was at about the same rate as in January. At cotton and woolen mills activity increased somewhat but at silk mills there was a marked decline. Output of shoes and tobacco products con tinued at high levels. In the meat packing industry activity declined further and there was also a decrease in activity at sugar refineries. Bituminous coal production was maintained in February, and crude petroleum output likewise continued in substantial volume. Anthracite out put declined in February, and in March was reduced further as mine owners and workers agreed on a curtailment program. Value of construction contracts awarded declined in February, accord ing to F. W. Dodge Corporation fig ures, owing principally to a further decrease in awards for publicly-fi nanced work. Contracts for privatelyfinanced residential building increased FACTORY EMPLOYMENT Index of number employed, adjusted for sea sonal variation. By months, January 1934 to February 1939. further, while awards for private nonresidential building remained at the low level of other recent months. Employment. Factory employment and payrolls increased somewhat less than is usual between the middle of January and the middle of February. Changes in nonmanufacturing lines were largely of a seasonal nature. Distribution. Department store sales were in about the same volume in Feb ruary as in January, although some increase is usual, and sales at variety stores increased less than seasonally, while mail order sales rose by slightly MONEY RATES IN NEW YORK CITY For weeks ending January 6, 1934, to March 18, 1939. CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED Three-month moving averages of F. W. Dodge Corporation data for value of contracts awarded in 37 eastern states, adjusted for sea sonal variation. Latest figures based on data for December and January and estimate for February. Page One more than the seasonal amount. In the early part of March department store sales increased. Freight-car loadings declined some what from January to February, re flecting for the most part reduced shipments of grains, forest products, and miscellaneous freight. Commodity prices. Wholesale com modity prices were generally main tained with little change during Feb ruary and the first three weeks of March. As is usual at this season prices of livestock and meats increased while dairy products declined. Silk prices advanced considerably in this period. In the early part of March current prices of pig iron and of semi finished and finished steel were re affirmed for the second quarter of this year. Bank credit. Investments in United States Government obligations by New York City banks increased consider ably in February and the first half of March. In this period member banks reduced their holdings of Treasury notes and increased their bonds, re flecting in part exchanges of notes for new bond issues on March IS. Excess reserves of member banks continued somewhat below the high level of $3, 600,000,000 reached at the end of Jan uary, fluctuating largely in accordance with changes in Treasury balances at the Federal reserve banks. Money rates. Average yields on United States Government securities declined to new record low levels from February 27 to March 10, following the announcement by the Treasury that no cash would be raised in the March financing. Yields rose slightly after the middle of March accompanying re newed tension in Europe. New issues of 91-day Treasury bills continued to sell on practically a no-yield basis dur ing March. Other open market rates continued unchanged. Business and Banking Conditions in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Industrial production in the Third Federal Reserve District increased more than seasonally from January to February. The adjusted index of pro ductive activity rose 1 per cent to 77, a level only slightly below the recent high reached in December and 14 per cent above the 1938 low last July. The improvement during February reflected gains in the output of manufactured goods, particularly of the durable type in which the current level of production is nearly 28 per cent above last sum mer’s low. The output of coal and crude oil, on the other hand, declined on a seasonally adjusted basis. Total construction activity in the dis trict, as measured by contract awards, declined sharply in the month and was somewhat below a year ago. Despite the declines in each of the first two months of this year, however, the value of awards was substantially above early 1938. An encouraging sign in February; was the slight increase from the previ ous month in awards for residential construction, which reflected a sub stantially larger volume of awards for family houses. Employment and payrolls in twelve lines of trade and industry increased 1 and 3 per cent respectively in Feb ruary, following substantial reductions in the previous month. The gain in February was due largely to increased activity at manufacturing plants. Most lines reported increases in the volume of wages disbursed, the only substantial declines being in the building and con struction industry and at retail estab lishments. Compared with February 1938 employment was down 2 per cent, while wage payments showed an in crease of 8 per cent. Preliminary reports for March in dicate that changes in factory employ ment, payrolls and working time have been about usual as compared with February, although some improvement is evident in miscellaneous manufactur ing lines. • Retail trade increased slightly less than usual from January to February and continued below the levels of a year ago. Early data for March, how ever, indicate seasonal improvement in most lines. Aggregate wholesale trade increased in February and for the sec ond successive month was above the levels of a year earlier. Inventories in both channels of trade showed some tendency to accumulate in the month but were substantially smaller than in early 1938. Prices of staple industrial commodi ties, after having declined irregularly from the first of the year to the end of February, increased almost steadily in March to recover nearly all of the INDUSTRIAL AND TRADE ACTIVITY VALUE OF BUILDING CONTRACTS PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PERCENT PERCENT MOS. MOVING AVG. RETAIL TRADE I SALES PRODUCTION INDUSTRIAL RESIDENTIAL VALUE OF BUILDING CONTRACTS ^3 months moving! avg. J Sources; F.WDodge Corp for codirdcf* ADJUSTED FOB SEASONAL VARIATION 1934 Page Two 1935 1936 i 1937 1938 1939 1935 1936 1937 1939 1939 losses. The agricultural group, on the other hand, has continued to fluctuate narrowly. The index of 813 wholesale commodity prices has shown little change since the first of the year and at the end of the third week in March was 76.7 per cent of the 1923 1925 average compared with 76.6 a month earlier. Prices of foods during this period were somewhat weak while other prices had a tendency toward firmness. Manufacturing. The demand for manufactured goods in this district has been fairly well sustained since Jan uary, following the customary contrac tion during the year-end inventory period. There has as yet been no evi dence of a resumption of the sharp upward trend which prevailed through out the latter half of 1938, but neither has there been any sign of an unex pected decline. Buying continues cau tious throughout industry and trade. In most lines, the volume of sales and unfilled orders in early March was approximately the same as a year ago; in the case of textiles and leather goods, however, the volume in 1939 has been larger owing principally to the improved inventory positions at most distributing establishments this year as compared with last. Plant operations in the aggregate have shown a slight increase since the first of the year, a reduction in textile activity in the latest period being offset by the increased output of building ma terials. Operations at most plants, es pecially textile mills, continue at a level above early 1938. Stocks of both raw materials and finished goods continued at the low levels prevailing since the turn of the year, further substantial reductions be ing reported in the latest period by textile mills. In all reporting lines in ventories are well below 1938. Prices quoted by manufacturers in this district generally are subject to bargaining and are somewhat lower than in the preceding month and well under the quotations of a year earlier. Employment and payrolls at Penn sylvania factories increased seasonally in February, being 2 and 4 per cent respectively above the preceding month. These gains followed a seasonal con traction in January, which was the first month to show a decline since the sum mer of 1938. In March employment, payrolls and working time have ap parently been maintained at seasonal levels. Business Indicators Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Index numbers: percentages of the 1923-1925 average as 100 Not adjusted Adjusted for seasonal variation seasonal change in activity. Per cent cha nge Unadj usted indexes reflect merely the actual change which may or may not Feb. Dec. Jan. Feb. be typical. 1938 1938 1939 1939 Feb. 1939 from Month Year ago ago Industrial production................... Manufacturing—total........................ Metal products............................... Textile products............................. Transportation equipment.......... Food products................................. Tobacco and products.................. Building materials......................... Chemicals and products............... Leather and products.................... Paper and printing........................ Coal mining......................................... Anthracite........................................ Bituminous...................................... Crude oil............................................... Electric power Output.............................................. Sales, total J..................................... Sales to industries!........................ 68 r 65 r 58 r 73 57 58 63 r 74 91 24 106 111 88 52 53 48 498 79 r 76 65 87 r 65 83 r 70 73 97 33 111 129 88 66 66 62 437 62 80p 71 74p 104 35 117p HOp 86 61p 61p 60 414 + i + 3 + 5 + 3 - 1 + 2 + 2 - 2 + 18 + 22 + 2 + 0 + 2 -10 -12 + 5 - 3 + + + + + + + + + + + 247 248 177 + i - 0 + i + 12 + 12 + 16 76 73 77p 75p 63 78 69 76 88 29 r 114 109 84 68 69 57 426 221 248 246 222 244 249 153 177 175 — + + + 13 15 17 16 10 38 13 1 14 48 10 1 2 16 15 25 17 1939 from 2 mos. 1938 + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + - Feb. Dec. Jan. Feb. 1938 1938 1939 1939 12 15 11 18 6 47 11 2 6 33 5 2 2 10 8 21 18 + ii + 12 + 15 69 r 76 76 66 r 74 r 72 57 63 64 r 72 77 21 106 118 88 56 57 52 498 62 80 r 70 73 70 30 109 120 89 65 65 65 410 61 80 69 75 73 25 111 113 84 73 74 65 409 235 266 261 240 252 257 152 168 169 78p 76p 63 86p 72 74 p 88 30 116p 117p 86 66p 66p 66 414 262 268 175 Employment and wages—Pa. 0* + 2* + 1* + 4* + 13* + 12* + 4* + 15* + 13* General (1932 = 100) Building and real estate Contracts awardedf—total............. Residential!..................................... Non-residentialJ............................ Public works and utilities!.......... Permits for building—17 cities .... Real estate deeds—Philadelphia! . Writs for Sheriff sales—Phila.......... Distribution Retail trade —sales...................... + 1* + 3* 54 73 82 22 44 51 74 86 80 95 98 116 13 21 43 44 43 47 364 341 214 81 r Sir 79 80 r 76 76 Life insurance sales............................ 76 Freight-car loadings—total........... Merchandise and miscellaneous . Coal.................................................... 52 53 51 127 i27 62 62 62 64 64 63 69 51 69 119 18 43 318 79p 77p 85 60 60 60 Business liquidations 3* + 7* -15 - 2 -14 + 3 -58 - 7 +49 + 27 + 126 — 7 + 26 + 41 — 2 - 13 - 0 + 2 + 4* + e* -33 + 10* + 1* + 3* - 6 - 6 - 6 _ _ + + + _ + + + 2 4 4* 7* 12 42* 6* 5* 16 13 18 75 73 64 76 76 67 _ 4* 105 109 101 + 7* 136 151 142 102 146 + 20 + 118 - 17 + 18 + 112 - 4 - 20 - 4 + 5* + + + + + 75 68 58 76 76 66 44 67 64 17 42 41 63 77 73 77 114 110 10 14 24 47 53 50 371 348 246 60 r 132 58 77 r 71r 69 - 0* 30* - 25* 123r 71 + 44* _ 21* - 22* 41r 34 95 22 86 32 Payment of accounts 77 94 82 82 + 0 + 7 30 29 30 r 31 + 2 + 1 Prices—United States ...... Scranton......................................... 59p 75p 98 27 88 133 113 39* 57 122 73 81 5* 125 101 116r 118 5* 140 125 129 133 56 13 49 56 57 55 49 55 55 13 55 66 68 65 14 _ Check payments................................. Rate of collections (actual) 56 39 59 97 14 46 324 0* _ 0* 0* 0* _ - 1* - 0* _ - 0* _ - 4* 4* 3* 3* 2* 3* 1* + — _ - 4 4* 5* 5* 4* 3* 4* 2* 78 101 84 83 30 r 29 35 30 77 68 73 80 79 78 75 77 67 71 80 77 78 74 77 67 71 80 77 78 74 80 70 73 83 78 80 74 % change from (In millions of dollars) Feb. 1938 Nov. 1938 Dec. 1938 Feb. 1939 Jan. 1939 Month ago Year ago anking and credit Federal Reserve Bank Bills discounted.............................. $ 2.5 Other bills and securities............. 215 Member bank reserves................. 374 Reserve ratio (per cent)............... 72.6 Reporting member banks Loans................................................. $ 441 Investments..................................... 650 Deposits (a)..................................... 1355 Bankers’ acceptances outstanding. 12.4 $ 1.3 226 378 72.8 * 1 .4 226 366 72.9 * 1.2 210 401 76.0 S 1 .2 209 401 76.7 0 -0 0 +i -52 - 3 + 7 + 6 $ 411 721 1425 11.2 S 415 724 1428 10.9 $ 409 723 1457 10.0 S 407 723 1455 9.7 -0 0 -0 -3 - 8 +n + 7 -22 * Computed from data unadjusted for seasonal variation. t Not included in production index. t 3-month moving daily average centered at 3rd month. p—Preliminary. r—Revised. (a) Less cash items in process of collection, Page Three METAL PRODUCTS-EMPLOYEE HOURS WORKED textile activity EMPLOYEE-HOURS IN PENNSYLVANIA PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT percent PERCENT CARPETS AND RUGS STEEL WORKS AND ROLLING MILLS WOOLEN AND LWORSTED , S GOODS ft FOUNDRIES AND MACHINE SHOPS MENS CLOTHING 1934 1935 1936 1937 The greatest improvement in Feb ruary was in the wages paid by pro ducers of transportation equipment, where there was an increase of 4.5 per cent; customarily payrolls at these plants are reduced in February. The volume of wage payments at clothing factories and at plants turning out nonferrous metal products increased more than is customary at this time of year. At iron and steel plants increases were seasonal. There was some improve ment also at cigar and tobacco fac tories, but most other lines either de clined slightly or failed to increase as much as was to be seasonally expected. At Delaware factories, employment increased 1.5 per cent and payrolls slightly less than 1 per cent from Jan uary to February. The largest gain occurred at establishments turning out metal products, although substantial gains also were reported by manufac turers of textile and chemical products. In Southern New Jersey, the number of workers at manufacturing plants in creased 1 per cent, and total wage dis bursements were fractionally larger than in the previous month. Throughout the district the number of factory workers in February was somewhat larger than a year earlier, and the volume of payrolls was nearly 12 per cent greater. The earnings of Pennsylvania factory workers also improved in February, despite the slight decline in average hourly wage payments. Average weekly earnings rose from $24.01 to $24.58, which is the highest level since October 1937 and compares with only $21.74 in February last year. The output of manufacturers in this district in February resumed the up ward trend which had proceeded al Page Four 1938 1939 1935 most without interruption from June to December. The index of factory production, adjusted for seasonal varia tion, was 75.2 per cent of the 1923-1925 average compared with 73.3 a month earlier and 76.3 in December. Since February 1938 the net gain has amounted to an even 10 points or 15 per cent. The output of durable goods increased 5 per cent in February, ow ing principally to increased activity at plants manufacturing transportation equipment and cement. Continued ex pansion in the production of hosiery and other textiles and tobacco products was largely responsible for the 3 per cent improvement in the output of con sumers’ goods. Production of nearly all types of goods was substantially greater in the first two months of this year than dur ing early 1938. The greatest improve ment was in the output of textiles which was nearly 47 per cent larger than last year; the manufacture of building materials was nearly one-third greater. Sales of electric power to industry increased 1 per cent from January to February, while total sales declined slightly, after adjustment for seasonal variation. The output of electric power was 1 per cent greater than in Jan uary. Compared with a year ago, both output and sales in February were 12 per cent larger. Coal and other fuels. While declin ing from January, anthracite produc tion during February was the largest for that mouth since 1936. In the first three weeks of March colliery output slackened further, as is to be expected at this season. Another factor in the decline was an agreement reached by 1936 1937 1938 1939 mine operators and workers to curtail operations in an effort to stabilize the anthracite market. Shipments con tinued substantially larger than a year ago. Stocks in producers’ storage yards have been reduced sharply from the high levels prevailing last autumn, and early in January were the smallest in nineteen months. Demand for Pennsylvania bituminous coal has been fairly well sustained. In recent weeks, however, industrial consumers have covered only their im mediate requirements, pending a deci sion on wage rates, which is expected to be announced about April 1. Col liery output increased in February, al though a decline is usual, and showed a further small gain in the early part of March. Shipments from the mines increased slightly and were nearly 25 per cent greater in February this year than last. Activity at by-product coke plants in February for the third successive month failed to show the usual expansion, so that the seasonally adjusted index de clined from 105 in November to 97 in February. Production in Eastern Pennsylvania, however, was approxi mately one-quarter greater than the vol ume reported a year earlier. Output of gas and fuel oils, showed a further sharp increase in February and was 6 per cent larger than a year ago. Building and real estate. There was a sharp increase in the awards of con tracts for family houses in February and as compared with a year ago. Some increase in the month also oc curred in the case of educational build ings. All other types of construction including commercial buildings, facto ries, and public works declined con siderably. As a result of these changes, SALES OF NEW PASSENGER AUTOMOBILES HOSIERY AND SILK OUTPUT THOUSANDS OF CARS PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PERCENT PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT HOSIERY 1937 1936 1939 SILK MANUFACTURES 1938 1935 1936 1937 1936 1939 JAN FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC at present show a decided gain over average basis and adjusted for seasonal last year. The market for more ex changes. Compared with a year ago, pensive dwellings, on the other hand, the dollar volume was 2 per cent smaller and in the first two months has been unusually quiet. sales were four per cent smaller. Agriculture. Planting intentions of Inventories at retail establishments at farmers in this district indicate some increase this year in the acreage to be the end of February, while increasing allotted to tobacco, hay, barley, and over January, were 4 per cent smaller soy beans, but little change is con than on the same date a year ago. The templated in the case of other leading rate of stock turnover was somewhat field crops such as corn, wheat, oats, higher in the first two months this year and potatoes. Stocks of grains on than last. Per cent Wholesale establishments reported an farms at the beginning of 1939 were change Building contracts Feb. Philadelphia increase of 4 per cent in their sales as nearly one-third larger than the 1928 1939 1939 Federal Reserve (000’s From from District 1937 average. Compared with a year compared with January and with a omitted) month 2 mos. ago, however, supplies of wheat showed year ago. For the year to date, the 1938 ago virtually no change, and stocks of corn dollar volume was 5 per cent larger, Residential...................... $4,422 + 2 + 118 +277 reflecting increased business in shoes, Apts, and hotels......... 392 -74 were 7 per cent smaller. Family houses............. 4,030 +42 + 95 electrical supplies, hardware, jewelry, Farm cash income in this district in Non-residential.............. 2,272 -63 - 17 Commercial................. 605 -72 + 42 and paper. Inventories increased dur creased sharply in January, after Factories...................... 309 + 182 -65 Educational................. ing February but at the end of the 432 + 12 - 82 reaching in December the lowest level All other....................... 926 + 9 -66 since early 1936. Receipts from the month were 7 per cent smaller than a Total buildings.... $6,694 -36 + 21 sale of crops declined appreciably year ago. Reductions occurred in all Public works and utilities................................. -50 1,870 + 18 throughout the second half of 1938, but lines except paper. Registrations of new passenger auto Grand total............. $8,564 -40 + 20 showed substantial gains immediately mobiles in this district, after having following the turn of the year. In the Source: F. W. Dodge Corporation. case of livestock products, particularly shown a sharp seasonal contraction in milk and eggs, sales have shown a pro the first month of the year, resumed Wholesale prices of building ma nounced upward trend since last Oc the upward trend which has been in terials increased during the first half evidence since new models were intro tober. of March, reflecting higher quotations Prices of agricultural commodities duced last fall. In the first two months for a wide variety of materials, includ have fluctuated narrowly around 67 of this year compared with last, regis ing lumber, brick, glass, sand, and per cent of the 1926 average for sev trations in this district were 39 per plumbing fixtures. eral months. Quotations for livestock cent higher, while in the same period There is some evidence of seasonal and poultry products have advanced factory sales in the country were nearly improvement in the local real estate sit considerably during the past two double the 1938 volume. uation. Renting demand for residential months, but these gains have been off Freight shipments by rail in Feb properties has expanded considerably, set by lower prices for other farm ruary declined somewhat, owing to reduced loadings of coal. Shipments and in the case of small houses and products, including grains. apartments comparisons with a year Distribution, trade and service. Busi of both coal and merchandise and mis ago continue favorable. Demand for ness at retail has shown a marked im cellaneous commodities decreased 6 per commercial and industrial space has not provement in March, preliminary to cent, on a seasonally adjusted basis, changed materially. Sales of houses the Easter season. Sales in February but continued well above last year. costing less than $6,000 have increased continued at about the same level as in The income of nonresort hotels in sharply during the past six weeks, and January, when computed on a daily February was 3 per cent larger than all contract awards in this district dur ing February aggregated about $8,564, 000, showing a drop of 40 per cent from the January volume and 4 per cent from a year ago. In the first two months of this year, however, the dol lar volume was 20 per cent larger than in the same period last year, all types of construction showing marked gains except educational buildings. Page Five in the previous month but 5 per cent smaller than in February 1938. Hotel business Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Room occupancy.................... Per cent of capacity used: Feb. 1939................. 55.4 Jan. 1939................. 54.8 Feb. 1938................. 58.9 Revenue from: Guest rooms........................ Food....................................... Other sources...................... Feb., per cent 1939 change from from Month Year ago ago 0 +i +3 +i +6 —0 -6 -8 -3 -2 mos. 1938 -5 -7 -4 -3 Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (Dollar figures in millions) March 22, 1939 Bilb discounted........... * 0.3 Industrial advances .. U. S. securities............ 2.9 205.9 Total.......................... Note circulation......... Member bank deposits U. S. general account. Foreign bank deposits Other deposits............. Total reserves.............. Reserve ratio............... $209.1 312.2 412.4 75.2 22.7 4.9 641.0 77.5% Changes in— Five weeks -$0.9 - 0.0 0 -$0.9 - 5.0 +20.1 + 6.0 - 3.1 - 1.9 + 16.3 + 0.5% One year -$ - 1.7 0.0 0.4 5.7 -$ 7.8 + 3.7 + 55.2 + 62.0 + 11.6 + 3.7 + 143.0 + 5.5% Reporting member Mar. 22, (000,000's omitted) Assets Commercial loans................... Open market paper................ Loans to brokers, etc.............. Other loans to carry secur.. . Loans on real estate............... Loans to banks........................ Total loans........................... $ U. S. Government securities. $ Obligations guaranteed by U. S......................................... Other securities....................... 1939 184 23 23 32 52 Changes in— Five One weeks year +$ i 1 —$22 - 6 + 5 2 2 1 412 + 8 4 365 +8 94 262 + - —824 1 +$59 2 + 6 6 + 12 smallest amount shown in any weekly Total investments.............. $ 721 -$ 3 + $77 statement since 1936. The number Total loans & investments $1,133 + $53 + $ 151 + of banks receiving accommodation Reserve with F. R. Bank . . . 275 + 51 Cash in vault........................... Banking conditions. The reserves of dropped from 20 to 8. 17 0 + 1 Balances with other banks. . 162 - 10 + 29 member banks in the first fifteen days 105 + i 0 Deposits at reporting member banks Other assets—net................... of March, averaging $407,000,000, have been consistently at higher levels Liabilities were about SO per cent above require than early in 1938. The total of $1, Demand deposits, adjusted . * 789 +812 +854 lime deposits........................... 283 0 + 2 ments, the excess approximating 47 454,000,000 on March 22 was $140, U. S. Government deposits.. 53 1 + 30 deposits.................. 329 - 6 + 54 per cent at banks in Philadelphia and 000,000 or nearly 11 per cent larger Interbank Borrowings............................... Other liabilities........................ 56 per cent at country banks. The 16 + 1 - 2 than on the corresponding date last banks also have been carrying very year. An increase of $5,000,000 in the Capital account....................... 222 + i — 4 substantial balances with their corres five weeks ended March 22, despite pondents, data for the first half of withdrawals by other banks and pay ruary 15. The investment in direct obligations of the Federal Government January showing $286,000,000 due ments of income taxes, was due to an has been at record levels, averaging from domestic banks, an amount more increase in balances to the credit of over $360,000,000 in the past month than equal to required reserves in that states and political subdivisions. and comprising 32 per cent of the out period. Outstanding credit also has expanded standing credit of the reporting banks. in the past year, but in smaller amount A decline of $9,000,000 in holdings of Member bank Ratio of than deposits, with the result that funds Re Ex reserves excess Treasury notes to $42,000,000 and a Held (Dollar figures in quired cess to re carried with the reserve bank and cor millions) quired rise of $10,000,000 in government bonds respondents have increased substan to $323,000,000 have been partly due Reserve city banks: tially. Additional accommodation ex 1939—Feb. 1-15 $260.7 $176.3 $84.4 48% to the exchange of notes of the June 15 Feb. 16-28 249.4 175.2 74.2 42 " tended to brokers and dealers and on Mar. 1-15 258.0 175.3 82.7 47 ” 1938—Mar. 1—15 228.1 183.4 44.7 24 ” commercial account was reflected in an maturity under the recent offer of the increase of $4,000,000 in total loans in Treasury. Country banks: 1939—Feb. 1-15 146.1 Year-end figures covering all mem 95.1 51.0 54 ” the period from February 15 to March Feb. 16-28 144.9 95.1 49.8 52 ” Mar. 1-15 149.0 95.3 53.7 56 ” 22. The rise of $6,000,000 in commer ber banks in the district show that in 1938—Mar. 1-15 146.7 110.9 35.8 32 * cial loans was the most substantial up 1938 the outstanding credit of banks turn in this classification since 1937, in Philadelphia increased, expansion of On February 15 the reserves of although the amount currently extended $79,000,000 in security holdings more member banks were reduced by pay remains 11 per cent under a year ago. than offsetting a decline of $40,000,000 ment for notes of the Reconstruction Holdings of corporate and municipal in loans which reflected chiefly the re Finance Corporation. Subsequently securities have decreased $6,000,000 in payment of commercial loans. Both there was an upward trend for four recent weeks and at present are $30, loans and investments of country banks consecutive weeks, which was only 000,000 under the high point in No declined, the combined shrinkage being partly offset by a decline in the fifth, vember. Direct and contingent obliga $23,000,000. At the end of 1938 the so that in the five weeks ended March tions of the United States, on the other loans of all member banks were the 22 reserves increased $20,000,000 to hand, showed increases of $1,000,000 lowest in nearly twenty years and less $412,000,000. This rise was due princi and $2,000,000 respectively since Feb- than half the average level of 1929. pally to a gain of nearly $28,000,000 MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND RELATED FACTORS in transactions with other districts, to which payments to the Treasury and Changes in weeks ended— Changes Philadelphia Federal Reserve District security sales contributed. Funds in five (Millions of dollars) Feb. Mar. Mar. Mar. Mar. weeks 22 1 8 15 22 gained through the settlements were partly offset by an expansion in the Sources of funds: Reserve bank credit extended in district......... -0.8 +0.8 -1.6 + 3.6 - 2.2 - 0.2 demand for currency, exceeding that Commercial transfers (chiefly interdistrict) . . +0.5 +5.1 + 0.1 +24.7 - 2.5 +27.9 +4.4 —2 8 +4.2 -14.0 - 4.8 reported a year ago, and by net Treas +4.1 + 3.1 ury receipts of about $5,000,000. +2.7 + 31.7 -18.7 +22.9 Outstanding credit of the reserve Uses of funds: + 1.0 +0.9 + 1.6 + 1.3 - 0.3 + 4.5 bank declined slightly. An increase in + 2.8 +4.7 + 1.3 +30.0 -18.7 + 20.1 "Other deposits” at reserve bank...................... + 0.5 -2.6 -0.2 - 0.0 + 0.4 float was more than equaled by a re - 1.9 —0.1 -0.0 -0.0 + 0.4 - 0.1 + 0.2 duction in member bank borrowing +4.1 +3.1 +2.7 +31.7 -18.7 + 22.9 from $1,200,000 to about $300,000, the Total revenue.................. +3 Page Six -5 -5 Employment and Payrolls in Pennsylvania ALL MEMBER BANKS MILLIONS PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT (All figures are rounded from original data) 3000 - Manufacturing Indexes DEPOSITS 2500 Employment* (Indexes are percentages of the 1923-25 average taken as 100. Total and group in dexes are weighted propor tionately.) 2000 LOANS 1500 INVESTMENTS 1929 ’30 ’33 ’31 ’34 ’35 ’36 '37 38 * "Mai less cash if INVESTMENTS OF ALL MEMBER BANKS PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Per cent Per cent Feb. change from Feb. change from 1939 1939 index Feb. Jan. index Feb. Jan. 1938 1939 1938 1939 All manufacturing___ Iron, steel and prods.. . . Non-fer. metal prods.. . . Transportation equip___ Textiles and clothing... . Textiles........................... Clothing.......................... Food products................... Stone, clay and glass. . . . Lumber products............. Chemicals and prods........ Leather and products. . . Paper and printing.......... Printing.......................... 76 67 102 54 98 93 116 101 66 51 80 94 94 88 Cigars and tobacco. . . Rubber tires, goods. . . Musical instruments. . 55 80 56 + i - 3 - 4 + 2 + 10 + 10 + 8 - 0 + 2 + 9 - 4 + 9 - 1 - 4 + + + + + + + — + + 2 2 2 4 3 3 5 0 0 1 1 + 3 + 1 + 1 -14 + 14 + 8 + 0 + 9 + 2 * Figures from 2269 plants. MILLIONS Employehoursf Payrolls* 76 75 116 53 90 86 105 102 62 42 87 94 97 93 Feb. 1939— per cent change from Feb. Jan. 1938 1939 + 15 + 14 + 9 +27 + 24 + 26 + 16 + 2 + 16 + 11 + 1 + 11 + 1 - 4 + 4 + 4 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 14 + 1 + 8 + 1 - 0 + 5 + 4 + 2 43 -13 +26 -16 88 +22 - 1 +22 57 +22 + 4 +20 + 32 + 1 + 3 + 13 + 16 + 4 + 18 + 17 + 17 + 15 + 2 + 16 + 18 + 3 + 14 + 2 - 0 + 4 + 4 + 3 + 4 + 7 + 5 + 14 - 0 - 0 + 3 - 0 + 4 + 4 + 3 t Figures from 2041 plants. US GOVERNMENT OBLIGATIONS (direct and guaranteed) General Index Numbers Covering twelve branches of trade and industry (Indexes are percentages of the 1932 average taken as 100. In dividual indexes are combined proportionately into general in dex number.) 400 STATE AND MUNICIPAL SECURITIES General index 30 '31 ’33 34 ’35 '36 37 '38 '39 Percentage change—February 1939 from February 1938 City areas* Payrolls Employment OTHER SECURITIES Manufacturing Employ ment Wage payments Building permits (value) Debits trade sales Allentown............. Altoona.................. Harrisburg............ Johnstown............. Lancaster..............' Philadelphia......... Reading................. Scranton................ Trenton.................. Wilkes-Barre. . . . Williamsport........ Wilmington.......... York....................... + 7 +60 + 0 - 6 + o - 0 + 7 + » + 8 + 4 + 8 + 9 + 2 + 17 +281 + 10 + 23 + 15 + 5 + 24 + 22 + 16 + 13 + 17 + 11 + 9 - 8 + 95 - 58 - 82 + 5 + 16 + 82 - 27 - 40 + 52 + i+ 747 - 37 + i + 6 + 5 - 7 + 14 + 7 + 13 + 10 + 3 + 2 + 0 + 7 + 10 - 2 +ii + 6 - 1 + 2 - 7 + 5 - 2 - 7 - 3 Allentown............. Altoona.................. Harrisburg............ Johnstown............ Lancaster............. Philadelphia......... Reading................. Scranton................ Trenton................. Wilkes-Barre.... Williamsport........ Wilmington.......... Y ork....................... + + + + + + + + + + + + - (weighted)___ Manufacturing............................. Anthracite mining...................... Bituminous coal mining............ Building and construction........ Quarrying and non-met. mining Crude petroleum producing. . . Public utilities.............................. Retail trade................................... Wholesale trade........................... Hotels.............................................. Laundries....................................... Dyeing and cleaning.................. Feb. 1939 index 102 120 70 104 46 82 130 92 97 120 108 94 92 Per cent change from Feb. 1938 Jan. 1939 - 3 + 1 -13 - 6 -14 + 0 -18 - 4 - 9 + 5 - 5 - 6 - 2 +i +2 +4 +1 -5 +i -2 -0 -2 +4 -0 -1 -0 Per cent change from Feb. 1939 index 146 186 77 197 59 134 154 101 111 119 122 117 107 Feb. 1938 Jan. 1939 + 7 + 13 + 3 + 4 + 19 + 4 -10 + 4 + 4 - 0 - 5 + 3 + 2 - 2 + 3 - 2 + 16 -15 + 20 -15 - 3 - 7 + 3 - 7 + 3 + 4 INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS PENNSYLVANIA PERCENT PAYROLLS - 4 + 4 February 1939 from January 1939 4 5 5 1 1 1 3 1 0 7 1 2 0 + 8 - 1 + 8 + 10 + 3 + 2 + 6 + 8 - 0 + 15 + 2 + 1 + 4 + 48 - 5 - 20 + 144 - 4 - 74 - 17 + 86 - 90 + 77 + 116 +407 - 81 -14 -21 -18 -11 -12 -13 -17 - 7 + 2 -20 -14 -29 -15 + 18 + 20 + 14 + 36 - 3 + i + 6 + 3 + 2 + 5 EMPLOYMENT -11 + 11 1933 1934 1936 1937 1938 1939 * Area not restricted to the corporate limits of cities given here. Page Seven RETAIL TRADE PHILAD ELPHIA FEDERAL RESE WE DISTRIC T ADJUSTED rod SEASONAL VAN TOTAL Index numbers of individual lines of trade and manufactures SALES Philadelphia Federal Reserve District STOCKS . / Index numbers: percentages of the 1923-1925 average as 100 Adjusted for seasonal variation Adjusted indexes allow for the usual seasonal change in activity. Not adjusted Per cent change Unadjusted indexes reflect merely the actual change which may or may not Feb Dec. Jan Feb be typical. 1938 1938 1939 1939 Feb. 1939 from Month Year ago ago Retail trade Sales (r) Total of all stores........................... 81 81 Department................................. 71 70 Men’s apparel............................. 69 76 Women’s apparel........................ 1U1 101 Shoe............................................... 89 101 Credit............................................ 95 89 DEPARTM ENT 1939 from 2 mos. 1938 5TOR £S Feb: Dec Jan Feb. 1938 1938 1939 1939 SALES ------------7 79 79p - 0 — 68 68p - 1 _ 76 68 -11 _ 99 96p - 3 — 77 87 + 13 — 99 lOOp + 1 + 2 5 1 6 2 5 — __ _ — + 4 5 1 5 6 6 60 55 73 62 70 132 127 127 154 111 140 58 49 69 81 61 56 - STOCKS 59p 52p men’s ap =AREL STOP ES 69p 61 73p Stocks of goods (r) 80 76 76 77p + 9 54 51 50 106 106 101 104p + 3 72 62 68 75' 104 105 98 lOOp 75p \ 104 + Wholesale trade Sales Total of all lines.............................. Boots and shoes.......................... Dry goods..................................... Electrical supplies...................... Groceries...................................... Hardware..................................... Jewelry.......................................... Paper............................................. Pig iron.................................................. Steel....................................................... Iron castings........................................ Steel castings....................................... Electrical apparatus.......................... Motor vehicles..................................... Automobile parts and bodies........... Locomotives and cars........................ Shipbuilding......................................... Silk manufactures............................... Woolen and worsteds........................ Cotton products.................................. Carpets and rugs................................. Hosiery.................................................. Underwear............................................ Cement.................................................. Brick...................................................... Lumber and products........................ 93 lOOp 4* 0.54 o.5e VOMENS A 3PAREL STC)RES + 4* + 29* — 0* - 1* — 5* + 13* +67* + 3* Stocks of goods Total of all lines.............................. Dry goods..................................... Electrical supplies...................... Groceries...................................... Hardware..................................... Jewelry.......................................... Paper............................................. Output of manufactures 96 SALES Rate of stock turnover 2 months (actual, not indexes) . . + + + + + + 4* 2* 6* 10* 0* 12* 39* 10* + 5* + 19* 8* + 21* 0* + lo* + ?n* + 8* STOCKS V / 33 47 41 59 81 18 52 26 258 68 36 32 47 79 lOOr 23 29 22 42 41 43 62 60 58 46 52 45 77 72 67 75 72 74 19 19 18 74 62 55 14 14 16 264 293 323 87 81 r 84 62 58 59 43 44 42 115 133 132 109 L02 107 138 129 132 43 29 56 35 36 r 36 26 26 23 14 Computed from data unadjusted for seasonal variation. ■*-* f\ + « - 3 -12 - 6 + 4 - 6 -11 + 16 + 10 + 4 + 1 - 4 - 1 + 6 + 2 + 96 0 -12 30 24 11 14 8 4 _ + 6 37 + 25 + 24 + 63 + 32 + 177 + 35 + 32 + 144 + 24 + 5 + 0 -36 + 0 + 18 + 4 + 2 - 0 + 1 + 16 - 4 + 3 - 3 + + + + + + + + _ + _ + + + V vy ''SALES + 14 35 + 23 50 + 8 42 + 5 66 14 78 9 19 _ + 14 56 43 27 + 21 253 + 32 72 + 74 37 + 36 35 + 202 48 + 47 82 + 36 109r + 93 16 + 22 28 + 5 21 5 + 9 90 34 + 26 59 3 3 51 15 + 6 75 11 + 12 64 4 4 92 12 4 157 _ 19 + 13 80 4 _ 5 83 4 + 4 72 12 + 4 141 23 + 23 82 p—Preliminary. 42 58 43 74 73 15 73 14 277 89 58 46 109 106 136 36 33 26 40 59 47 76 67 17 62 14 299 82 r 59 45 125 106 126 20 33 r 24 96 20 53 68 68 94 150 92 78 76 143 100 103 96 66 80 52 50p 71 86' 67 71 87 89 136 139 92 96p 68 79 71 75 154 159p 100 102' SHOE STORES 45 61 46 75 71 18 60 17 317 89 60 46 134 111 144 39 34 22 SALES • 1 •» s’K % STOCKS CREDI1 STORES STOCKS 1+A\ r s\'M r— V V'-~i SALES -Revised. 193 5 Page Eight A Jt/7y + 6* 7* + 10* 2* + H* 2* + 1* 16* + 2* 15* + 6* 6* + 7* + 7* Slaughtering, meatpacking............. 89 89 94 94 Sugar refining...................................... 46 31 96 61 Canning and preserving.................... 55 52 54 54p Cigars.................................................... 89 95 87 103 Paper and wood pulp........................ 64 68 68 71 Printing and publishing.................... 92 93 87 89 Shoes...................................................... 150 176 133 132 Leather, goat and kid........................ 74 84 87 88p Explosives............................................. 83 79 68 79 Paints and varnishes.......................... 73 79 79 76 Petroleum products........................... 143 144 .56 I61p Coke, by-product............................... 78 103 100 97 • f ’«V \ 193 A 1937 1938 1939
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