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THE BUSINESS REVIEW THIRD FEDERAL PHILADELPHIA RESERVE DISTRICT APRIL i, 1938 4^ FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA Business and Banking Conditions in the United States Volume of manufacturing production showed little change from January to February, while output of minerals de clined further. Awards for residential building increased somewhat in Febru ary and rose considerably in the first half of March. Production. The Board’s seasonally adjusted index of industrial production, which includes both manufacturing and mining, was 79 per cent of the 1923-1925 average in February as com pared with 80 per cent in January. The decline in the total index was ac counted for chiefly by a reduction in output of minerals, particularly of crude petroleum. Steel ingot produc tion showed about the usual seasonal increase and averaged 32 per cent of capacity in February. Automobile production decreased slightly further, and output of plate glass continued to decline. Lumber production rose seasonally. In the first three weeks of March activity at steel mills and auto mobile factories was at about the same average rate as in February. In the nondurable goods industries there were moderate increases in output in Febru ary at textile mills and shoe factories, where production has recently been at low levels, while at meat packing estab lishments activity declined. Value of construction contracts awarded, as reported by the F. W. Dodge Corporation, showed a sharp de cline from January to February, reflect ing chiefly a marked reduction in awards for publicly-financed projects. Contracts for residential building in creased moderately. In the first half of March there was a considerable fur ther increase reported for residential building and awards for other construc tion also increased. Employment. Factory employment and payrolls increased by somewhat less than the usual seasonal amount between the middle of January and the middle of February. The Board’s sea sonally adjusted index of factory em ployment was at 83 per cent of the 1923-1925 average in February as com pared with 84 in January. In the dura ble goods industries decreases were general in February, though not so large as in preceding months. Em ployment in nondurable goods indus tries increased somewhat following a period of rapid decline. Employment in trade, at mines, on the railroads, and in the construction and public utility INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FREIGHT-CAR LOADINGS Index of physical volume of production, ad justed for seasonal variation. By months, Jan uary 1934 to February 1938. Index of total loadings of revenue freight, ad justed for seasonal variation. By months, Jan uary 1934 to February 1938. industries decreased soir&what from the January level. Distribution. Value of department store sales, as measured lry the Board’s seasonally adjusted index, declined from 90 per cent of the 1923-1925 av erage in January to 88 per cent in February, and in the first three weeks of March there was further decrease. Sales at variety stores and mail order houses in February showed somewhat less than the usual seasonal increase. Freight car loadings decreased fur ther in February, reflecting chiefly re duced shipments of coal and grain, and showed a seasonal increase in the first EXCESS RESERVES OF MEMBER BANKS Wednesday figures of estimated excess re serves for all member banks and for selected New York City banks, January 3, 1934 to March 16, 1938. Index compiled by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. By weeks, 1934 to week ending March 19, 1938, Page One two weeks of March. The current level of car loadings is about 25 per cent less than a year ago. Commodity prices. The general level of wholesale commodity prices, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Sta tistics’ index, showed little change from the middle of February to the third week of March. There were sea sonal increases in prices of livestock and meats, while prices of such basic commodities as wheat, cotton, rubber, zinc, and bituminous coal declined. Bank credit. Excess reserves of mem ber banks increased during the first three weeks of March to over $1,500,- 000,000, the highest level since last April. The bulk of the increase oc curred at New York City banks, which in the third week of the month held over $700,000,000 of excess reserves. During February and the first half of March, there was little net change in deposits and in total loans and in vestments at reporting member banks in 101 leading cities. Holdings of United States Government obligations declined at banks in New York but in creased in Chicago. Commercial loans, which had decreased sharply in the four preceding months, showed a fur ther moderate decline. Condi tions in the short-term money market continued easy in March. Rates on Treasury bills were slightly lower and prime commercial paper was quoted at a range of from to 1 per cent as against the flat 1 per cent rate which has prevailed since a year ago. Yields on Treasury bonds and notes, after de clining for the past six months, ad vanced slightly around the middle of March. Yields on corporate bonds also advanced in March, reflecting princi pally declines in prices of railroad bonds. Money rates and bond yields. Business and Banking Conditions in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Industrial activity in the Philadel phia Federal Reserve District increased a little in February and showed some further gains in early March. This up turn reflects a higher rate of operations at manufacturing industries, principally those producing nondurable goods. Production of coal and crude oil, on the other hand, has declined. The sea sonally adjusted index, measuring the combined output of factory and mineral products was 70 in February, com pared with 69 in January and 94 a year ago. In early months of last year the level of industrial production was the highest in six years but subse quently declined sharply, reaching in the first two months this year the low est level since 1934. Awards of building contracts in the aggregate declined further in Febru ary, although the value of contracts let for residential structures, particularly one and two-family houses, was nearly one-third larger than in January. Prices of building materials have eased off a little further. The real estate market generally continues quiet and much less active than early in the spring of last year when purchases of newly constructed dwellings were ex panding rapidly. Retail trade sales increased by a small percentage from January to Feb ruary but were less than last year. Preliminary reports for March show a substantial decline from a year ago, principally under the influence of the later Easter season this year. Business at wholesale also has been less active than last year. Stocks of goods at re tail increased less than they usually do from January to February but at whole sale they registered a somewhat larger than seasonal gain. Inventories in both channels of trade, however, are smaller than a year ago. Sales of new passenger automobiles showed some gain in February but a sharp decline as compared with last year. Life insurance sales registered a smaller than seasonal increase over January and were materially less than at the same time in 1937. Total freight car loadings declined, owing chiefly to decreases in shipments of merchandise and miscellaneous com modities and of coal. Employment in twelve branches of trade and industry showed virtually no change from January to February but payrolls increased about 2 per cent. Seasonal gains in textiles and clothing also are indicated by the preliminary reports for March. Compared with a year ago, however, the number of workers employed in February declined 13 per cent and the amount of wage disbursements decreased 22 per cent. The general level of commodity prices has declined slightly since Janu ary, the largest relative drop being in INDUSTRIAL FUEL AND POWER PRODUCTION AND PRICES PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PERCENT PERCENT INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION ( PHIL A TED. PCS. DIST.) I ELECTRIC POWER USED BY INDUSTRIES COMMODITY TARM PRODUCT: PRICES-U.S. (oTMCR THAN FUEL OIL OUTPUT PRICES OF RAW MATERIALS BITUMINOUS COAL OUTPUT 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 Source tor Pr.ces-U.5.Bureau of Labor Slol.al,cs Page Two 1933 1934 1936 1937 1938 prices of raw materials. Prices chiefly of factory products in March, while fractionally lower than in the previous month, have fluctuated very little. Farm products and foodstuffs were somewhat firmer in the first two weeks of March but declined in the third week. Generally speaking, prices this year have been moving much more evenly than they did last year. Manufacturing. Following sharp de clines for several months, manufactur ing activity shows signs of some im provement particularly in the case of industries producing consumers’ goods. While still in relatively small volume the demand for textile, food, paper and leather products has been noticeably more active since January. Activity in durable goods industries has reached the lowest level since 1935 but also shows evidence of steadiness, as indi cated by the rate of operation and the slight change in payrolls in March. The volume of unfilled orders, al though showing minor seasonal in creases here and there, continues much smaller than a year ago. Inventories of finished goods have declined further to the point that in the majority of cases they appear lower than at this time last year. Buying of raw mate rials lias been extremely conservative, and current supplies at reporting plants seem smaller than they have been for several months and as compared with a year ago. Prices of factory products have been somewhat steadier than in several pre vious months, although current quota tions in the aggregate are the lowest since 1936. The index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, comprising com modities other than farm products and foods, on March 19 was 82.8, relative to the 1926 average, as compared with 83.0 a month before and a high of 86.5 in 1937. Factory payrolls and working hours have shown a measurable seasonal up turn during February and March. While this is due principally to seasonal expansion in the nondurable goods in dustries, preliminary reports for March indicate that a few other important lines registered some gains, particularly in payrolls. The index of employment in Penn sylvania factories in February was about 76 per cent of the 1923-1925 average and that of wage payments was 68. The total number of employehours worked was 3 per cent greater than in January but 38 per cent less Business Indicators Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Index numbers: percentages of the 1923-1925 average as 100 Adjusted for seasonal variation seasonal change in activity. Unadjusted indexes reflect merely the actual change which may or may not Feb. Dec. Jan. Feb. be typical. 1937 1937 1938 1938 Feb. 1938 from Month Year ago ago Industrial production................... Manufacturing—total........................ Durable goods................................. Consumers’ goods........................... Metal products............................... Textile products............................. Transportation equipment.......... Food products................................. Tobacco and products.................. Building materials.......................... Chemicals and products............... Leather and products.................... Paper and printing........................ Coal mining.......................................... Anthracite........................................ Bituminous...................................... Crude oil............................................... Electric power Output.............................................. Sales, totalt..................................... Sales to industries^:........................ Not adjusted Per cent ch ange 94 94 76 72 69 65 70p 66p 89 58 68 99 r 74 r 68 102 72 62 101 r 58 r 48 84 85 76 76 75 79 108 86 90 49 34 25 125 120 114 141 96 103 94 91 85r 50 87 69 467 531 56p 73p 57 56p 77 74p 91 24 118p 117p 88 64 52p 66 53p 49 48 522 498 236 240 185 228 225 155 222 221 222 222 153 153 54 68 +1 + 3 - 3 + 7 - 8 +17 + 1 - 1 + 0 - 2 + 3 +14 + 2 -18 -20 - 2 - 5 — — — — — — — — — — + — + - 0 - 0 + 0 1938 from Feb. Dec. Jan. Feb. 1937 1937 1938 1938 2 mos. 1937 69 70. -27 96 r 74 64 67p -30 96p 70 —35 — 29 69 59 57 -43 104 -48 108r 57 r 49 60p 87 76 77 - 9 85 76 73 73p - 4 75 63 75 77 -13 91 31 22 r 22 -46 43 - 9 124 119 112 117p 91 107 125p -20 150 92 - 7 94 85 r 88 70 56p + 4 59 67 68 72 56p + 12j 54 59 56 52 -40 95 + 6 467 499 502 498 6 _ 7 — 17 — _ — _ 26 30 37 27 44 44 9 3 16 51 6 17 7 3 6 45 7 - 6 250 - 6 259 -17 183 244 232 148 235 235 229 240 148 152 Employment and wages—Pa. -15* 90 -27* 94 -38* 96 -12* 121 -21* 174 119r 106 106 156 r 133r 136 -21 -10 -18 + 4 -17 - 9 +22 26 — 51 + 3 38 — 56 — 16 — 21 -36 60 -51 36 -12 61 -51 125 -48 22 -15 56 -32 470 61 28 92 85 8 57 409 - 1 - 1 + 2* + 4* -14 + 6* + 4* + 3* - 8 - 6 -12 6 — 2 — 17* — 5* — 24 — 48* — 1* + 4* 35 — 33 33 63 77 -15* 95 77 -19 115 -46* 109 - 1* 127 + 4* 134 -32 73 -32 73 -28 82 129 58 59 71 76 74 77 78 97 69 72 69 85 79 88 102 54 57 109r 120 125 137 r 135 140 50 49 52 49 49 49 61 55 64 + 1* +107* + 7* + 38* General (1923 = 100) 81 75r 66 75 r 76 66 r 68 57 r 59 + 0* 16* + 4* — 27* + 3* - 38* - o* -13* -22* + 2* Payrolls............................................. +99* 58 +24* 30 73 38 -14 93 92 83 78 28 28 34 29 86 91 87 84 84 86 81 82 73 80 84 83 84 77 81 72 76 83 80 82 75 80 70 73 83 78 80 74 Building and real estate Contracts awardedf—total............. 74 Residential..................................... 46 Non-residential t............................. 71 Public works and utilitiesf.......... 154 Permits for building—17 cities .... 28 Real estate deeds—Philadelphiaf.. 52 Writs for Sheriff sales—Phila.......... 461 Distribution Retail trade 69 54 25 22 90 74 91 95 15 13 48 44 298 364 66 30 102 73 12 47 401 —sales...................... stocks.................. 81 80 78 78 76 80 76 79 Life insurance sales............................ New passenger auto, registrations . Hotels—Occupancy.. . (1934 = 100) Income, total... (1934 = 100) Freight car loadings—total............. Merchandise and miscellaneous . Coal................................................... 100 81 89 76 80 80 75 58 56 61 57 52 56 53 57' 51 - 6 53 44 20 17 82 63 87 77 9 10 51 47 343 371 Business liquidations Number................................. Amount of liabilities.......................... 118 120 39 42 Payment of accounts Check payments. ........................ Rate of collections (actual) Retail trade..................................... 92 85 81 77 - 5 - 16 29 28 29 30 + 3 + _ - 8* — 24* 16* — 1* — 7* _ 8* — 9* — 3 Prices—United States Wholesale (1926 = 100)................. harm products................... Foods...................... Other commodities.................... Retail food.......................... Philadelphia.................................... Scranton........................................... (In millions of dollars) Feb. 1937 Nov. 1937 1* 3* 4* 1* 2* 2* 1* Dec. 1937 - 7* -23* -14* — 6* - 7* - 8* Jan. 1938 Feb. 1938 % change from Month Year ago ago Banking and credit Federal Reserve Bank Bills discounted............................ * 0.6 Other bills and securities........... 199 Member bank reserves............... 365 Reserve ratio (per cent)............. 74.3 Reporting member banks Loans.............................................. $ 452 Investments................................... 734 Deposits (a)................................... 1,437 Bankers’ acceptances outstanding. 15.0 * 2.6 219 361 72.3 $ 2.9 221 355 71.7 $ 464 677 1,353 16.1 * 460 662 1,336 15 .4 $ S * Computed from data unadjusted for seasonal variation, t 3-month moving daily average centered at 3rd month. t Not included in production index. 2.4 216 380 72.7 $ 2.5 215 374 72.6 +4 -0 -2 -0 +317 + 8 + 2 - 2 456 656 1,362 12.9 $ 453 660 1,355 12.4 -1 +1 -1 -4 + o - 10 - 6 - 17 p—Preliminary. r—Revised, (a) Less cash items in process of collection. Page Three OUTPUT OF MANUFACTURES BY CLASSES VALUE OF BUILDING CONTRACTS AWARDED PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PER CENT PERCENT CONSUMERS’ GOODS PRICES OF BUILDING MATERIALS (1926-100) NON RESIDENTIAL DURABLE GOODS RESIDENTIAL CONTRACTS ADJ. FOR SEASONAL VARIATION. 1923-23» 100 (3monlha 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 than a year ago. Our estimates indi cate that manufacturing establishments in this state about the middle of Febru ary employed some 800,000 workers receiving compensation of nearly $17, 500,000 a week. In Delaware factories employment and payrolls declined 4 and 6 per cent respectively from the middle of Janu ary to the middle of February. The number of workers employed registered a decrease of 19 per cent as compared with a year ago and wage disburse ments were 21 per cent smaller. Man ufacturing plants in southern New Jersey reported little change in employ ment and payrolls in February but re cessions from a year earlier were sub stantial in both cases. Output of manufactures increased in February, following a continuous de cline for five months. This bank’s sea sonally adjusted index advanced to 66 per cent of the 1923-1925 average, as compared with 65 in January, 72 in De cember and 94 a year ago. In April 1937 this index reached a high for re cent years of nearly 98. The average rate of productive activity in the first two months of 1938 was 30 per cent less than a year ago and the lowest for that period since 1934. The improvement in activity in February reflected principally increases in the production of textile manufac tures, meat packing, leather and shoes, petroleum products, and paper. Out put of certain durable manufactures including automobile parts and bodies, industrial chemicals, and brick and ce ment also turned upward. Production of pig iron, iron and steel castings, elec trical apparatus, and lumber, however, registered appreciable declines and the Page Four 1937 1938 1932 1933 output of motor vehicles, locomotives and cars, and steel failed to show the usual expansion from January to February. At shipbuilding yards ac tivity improved, but in the case of sugar refining operations rose by a much smaller percentage than was to be expected. Production of electric power by eight central stations showed a further slight decline in February, when the adjusted index was 13 per cent below the peak of last April. Sales by ten systems were somewhat larger than in January, owing mainly to a seasonal gain in the consumption of electrical energy by in dustries. Compared with a year ago, output and sales of electricity were from 6 to 7 per cent smaller. Coal and other fuels. The continu ance of extremely mild weather has contributed to a considerable slacken ing in the demand for anthracite. Col liery output in February exceeded the unusually low figure of a year earlier, but in comparison with January showed a decline of much more than seasonal proportions. A further decrease was reported during the first half of March. Shipments of hard coal also fell off sharply from January to February but were about equal to those in February 1937. The low level of activity in industry and transportation is reflected in con tinued quiet in the market for Penn sylvania bituminous coal and a further decrease since the middle of last month in the takings of manufacturing plants, railroads, and public utilities. A re duction in output from January to February was little more than that which usually takes place but the amount mined in both months was much 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 smaller than a year ago. Shipments have been declining for four consecu tive months and likewise compare un favorably with the amount transported early in 1937. Production of by-product coke was virtually unchanged in February, al though an increase is usual, and was 37 per cent smaller than a year earlier. Output of gas and fuel oils, on the other hand, increased in February; it was 24 per cent greater than a year earlier and was the largest for the month since 1928. Building and real estate. Of particu lar interest in the building figures of this district in February was an ex pansion from $1,500,000 to $2,000,000 in contracts awarded for one- and twofamily houses. The only other sub divisions to show increases were apart ments and hotels and factories, but the dollar amount involved remained small. Sharp decreases from January to February in the value of contracts let for public works and utilities and for nonresidential buildings other than fac tories were reflected in a decline of 11 per cent in total awards to $8,900,000. In comparison with a year ago con tracts have declined materially. The February figures show that this de crease extended to all classes of con struction save educational buildings, and apartments and hotels; the decline in the aggregate was 48 per cent. Totals for the first two months of 1938 show much the same situation; the resi dential group decreased 51 per cent and the combined total was 36 per cent under the corresponding months of 1937, although materially larger than in several prior years. SALES OF NEW PASSENGER AUTOMOBILES RETAIL TRADE PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT THOUSANDS OF CARS PERCENT SALES 1937 STOCKS 1938 1932 1934 1933 Building contracts Philadelphia Federal Reserve District 1935 Per cent cha nge Feb. 1938 1938 From from (000’s omitted) month 2 mos. ago 1937 Residential........................... $2,277 Apts, and hotels............. 270 Family houses................. 2,007 Non-residential................... 4.581 825 Commercial...................... 339 Factories.......................... Educational..................... 1,962 All other........................... 1,455 + 30 + 13 Total buildings........... $6,858 Public works and utilities. 2,068 - Grand total................. 1936 + 33 - 19 - 27 +313 - 23 - 23 $8,926 -51 -41 -52 -12 -42 -82 +82 - 2 7 -28 - 23 -51 - 11 -36 Source: F. W. Dodge Corporation. Reports indicate that houses avail able for rent are not numerous hut the purchasing demand for newly finished houses remains quiet. This is to be expected in view of the recession in business, although more liberal financ ing provisions under amendments to the Federal Housing Act may stimulate activity. Latest reports indicate a continuance of slack demand for building materials, despite the increase in residential con tracts. The price index of the Bu reau of Labor Statistics, measuring wholesale prices of building materials in the country as a whole, has shown a substantial decline from 97.2, relative to the 1926 average, at the peak last May, to 90.6 in the middle of March. This compares with an index of 82.8 for all commodities other than farm products and foods on March 19. The most pronounced declines in the nine months from May to February oc curred in quotations for lumber, paint and miscellaneous materials, while prices of cement and structural steel have shown virtually no change. 1938 JAN FEB. MAR. APR. MAY JUNE JULY AUG. SEPT OCT NOV Distribution, trade and service. Retail trade sales by department, apparel, shoe and credit stores in this district in February and in the first two months were 6 per cent smaller than a year ago. The value of department store sales in Philadelphia was 4 per cent less than in February last year and the decline outside the city was 6 per cent. Compared with January dollar sales showed a small increase that was nearly in line with seasonal expectation, so that our seasonally adjusted index in February continued at 76 per cent of the 1923-1925 average. A year ago it was 81. Preliminary reports for March indi cate substantial declines in sales from a year ago, reflecting partly the influ ence of decreased industrial activity and partly the fact that the Easter season this year is three weeks later than it was last year. In the case of Philadelphia stores, the sales tax which became effective early in March also apparently was a contributing factor to reduced sales. The value of wholesale trade sales in February in eight important branches was 17 per cent less than a year ago. Decreases were reported in all lines and were 25 per cent or more in the case of dry goods, electrical supplies, jewelry, and hardware. Sales in the aggregate were 15 per cent smaller in the first two months this year than last. Inventories of merchandise at retail increased a little less than was to be expected from January to February but in wholesale lines they expanded somewhat more than they usually do. In both channels of trade, however, they continued smaller than in Febru ary 1937. DEC Shipments of commodities by rail road freight in this section slackened further in February, continuing a pro nounced downward trend since Septem ber. They showed a decline of 35 per cent as compared with a year ago and were 32 per cent less in the first two months this year than last. The de crease in the month was due largely to smaller loadings of merchandise and miscellaneous commodities, and coal. Railroad shipments chiefly of manu factures originating in the Philadelphia industrial area have improved recently, following a period of substantial de clines. Total shipments, however, were nearly 10 per cent smaller than a year ago. Sales of new passenger automobiles in this district on a daily average basis increased 6 per cent from January to February, although the monthly total declined slightly. They showed a drop of 48 per cent as compared with a year ago and were 46 per cent smaller in the first two months this year than last. In the country as a whole daily average sales of new passenger cars likewise expanded in February but continued substantially below a year ago. The number of new units financed at re tail in February was the smallest for that month since 1934. Room occupancy at nonresort com mercial hotels showed some gain in February but a slight decline as com pared with a year ago. Revenue from guest rooms and miscellaneous sources also was larger than in January but in come from food was a little smaller. Total revenue was about 4 per cent greater in the first two months this year than last. Page Five Hotel business Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Feb., per cent 1938 change from from 2 Month Year mos. 1937 ago ago -1 +4 Room occupancy.... Per cent of capacity used: Feb.1938................. 59.6 Jan. 1938................. 56.4 Feb.1937................. 56.3 Income from: Guest rooms........... Food.......................... Other sources......... —1 -1 -1 +5 -1 +6 +2 +3 +7 +3 Total revenue... +i +5 +9 4-4 +4 Banking conditions. The reserves of member banks in this district have de clined in recent weeks, but continue sub stantially in excess of requirements. In the first half of March the average amount held was $374,800,000, and excess reserves were $80,500,000. In the case of reserve city banks the ratio of excess to requirements was 24 per cent, comparing with an av erage of 16 per cent in the last three months of 1937. At the country banks the excess was equivalent to 32 per cent, as against 28 per cent in the first two months of 1938 and 25 in the final quarter of last year. Reserve balances of member banks (Dollar figures in millions) Held Ratio of Re Ex excess quired cess to re quired Reserve city banks: Jan. 16-31........... $236.7 $187.4 $49.3 Feb. 1-15........... 230.4 186.4 44.0 Feb. 16-28........... 230.0 184.7 45.3 Mar. 1-15........... 228.1 183.4 44.7 26% 24 ” 25 ” 24 * Country banks: Jan. 16-31........... Feb. 1-15........... Feb. 16-28........... Mar. 1-15........... 26 ” 28 ” 29 ” 32” 143.1 143.8 143.9 146.7 113.3 112.6 111.6 110.9 29.8 31.2 32.3 35.8 There was a decline in the number of borrowing banks during the five weeks ended March 23 and a contraction of $600,000 in the discounts of this bank to $1,900,000. The bank’s participa tion in System holdings of United States securities continued at $211, 600,000, but the distribution of this total into bonds, notes, and bills changed somewhat. Member bank reserves increased in the two weeks ended March 2, but de clines were reported in each of the three following weeks, so that the pe riod as a whole shows a net decrease of $15,000,000. This loss of funds was due mainly to tax payments to the Treasury. The Government disbursed substantial amounts in connection with interest on the public debt and redemp tions of maturing Treasury bills, but its total expenditures in the district fell short of tax collections and other re ceipts by about $13,000,000. Reserves also were reduced by a small increase Page Six Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (Dollar figures in millions) Changes in— 23, 1938 Five weeks Bills discounted.... * 1.9 Bills bought.............. 0.1 Industrial advances. 3.3 United States securities...................... 211.6 -$0.6 + 0.0 - 0.1 + SO.9 - 0.3 - 1.0 0 Reporting member banks (000,000’s omitted) One year + 16.8 Total bills and securities............... Federal reserve note circulation......... Member bank reserve deposits. . U. S. Treasurer— general account Foreign bank deposits.................. Other deposits.......... Total reserves........... Reserve ratio............ Mar. 23, 1938 Assets Commercial, industrial and agricultural loans: On securities...................... $ Otherwise secured and unsecured....................... Open market paper............. Loans to brokers and deal- $216.9 -$0.7 +S16.4 308.5 - 2.3 + 357.2 -15.1 - 40.7 13.2 + 2.2 - - 3.9 -f 0.2 -15.8 - 0.4% ■+ i.i - 74.9 -129.1 - 5.9% 11.1 1.2 497.9 72 .0% Other loans to purchase or carry securities............. 1.1 Other loans: On. securities...................... Otherwise secured and unsecured....................... 0.1 in currency demand and a decrease, principally in float, in reserve bank credit extended locally. The only sus taining factor was a gain of nearly $4,000,000 in commercial and financial transactions with other districts. Member banks in leading cities re ported a decrease of $31,000,000 in de posits in the five weeks to $1,314,000, 000, the lowest point in more than two years. The decrease was almost en tirely in adjusted demand deposits and reflected in considerable measure tax collections. There also was a small de cline in funds held for other banks, but an increase in time deposits. The shrinkage in deposits was met chiefly through a reduction of $15,000,000 in reserves and the withdrawal of $7, 000,000 from correspondents. Outstanding credit of the reporting banks declined $9,000,000. While $3, 000,000 of open market paper was pur chased, declines of $6,000,000 each oc curred in loans to customers and in security holdings. The drop in invest ments was chiefly in obligations guar anteed by the United States Govern ment. Holdings of direct issues of the Government have decreased slightly but still are $7,000,000 above the low level reached at the end of 1937. The contraction in loans to cus tomers was largely in those which are United States Government securities......................... Obligations fully guar, by U. S. Government.... Other securities..................... 49 159 29 Changes in— Five weeks One year -* i * + 3 * $ 10 18 * 34 58 2 - 49 - 1 * 50 - 4 * 1 - 4 1 -* 3 306 - 1 - 35 88 260 - 4 1 - 4 33 Total loans and investments............................... $1,102 Reserve with Federal Reserve Bank..................... 224 Cash in vault......................... 16 Balances with other banks. 133 Other assets—net................. 83 Liabilities Demand deposits, adjusted $ Time deposits........................ U. S. Government deposits. Interbank deposits............... 735 281 23 275 Capital account.................... 18 226 -* 9 -® 72 - 15 + i - 7 - 2 - — $31 + 3 -$129 + 18 + 2 - 15 1 9 - 2 - i 50 2 3 7 * Comparable figures not available. not classified. Accommodation ex tended to finance commerce, industry and agriculture has shown only minor fluctuations and no net change in the five week period. The trend in loans of this type has been quite similar to a year ago, when the low point for the year was reached early in March. Commercial loans on March 23 were only 7 per cent under the high point of last September, while figures for all reporting banks throughout the country show a decline of 12 per cent from their October peak. The reports indi cate that the volume of these loans out standing continues greater than a year ago, despite the lower level of business activity. Outstanding acceptances of banks in this district have declined from $16,- MEMBER BANK RESERVES AND RELATED FACTORS Changes in weeks ending— Feb. 23 Mar. 2 Mar. 9 Mar. 16 Mar. 23p Changes in five weeks Sources of funds: Reserve bank credit extended in district.... Commercial transfers (chiefly interdistrict). . Treasury operations.............................................. -3.0 +4.8 +3.4 +2.2 -1.0 +6.8 - 0.8 -13.2 + 5.8 - 3.0 - 1.6 - 7.3 + 1.6 +14.7 -21.8 - 3.0 + 3.7 -13.1 Philadelphia Federal Reserve District (Millions of dollars) Total..................................................................... +5.2 +8.0 - 8.2 -11.9 - 5.5 -12.4 Uses of funds: Currency demand.................................................. Member bank reserve deposits.......................... “ Other deposits” at reserve bank.................... Unexpended capital funds.................................. +1.5 +3.9 +0.0 -0.2 +0.0 +8.3 -0.2 -0.1 + - 0.1 8.2 0.1 0.0 + 1.6 -14.3 + 0.2 + 0.6 + - 0.7 4.8 0.1 0.1 + 2.3 -15.1 + 0.2 + 0.2 Total..................................................................... +5.2 +8.0 - 8.2 -11.9 - 5.5 -12.4 p—Preliminary. 079,000 to $12,446,000 in the past three months. The total at the end of February was less than half of the peak amount reported eight years earlier and was $2,600,000 under the corresponding date in 1937. In the past year import bills have declined $4,000,000 and those covering goods stored in or shipped between foreign countries have shown a small decline. Increases in other classifications included $1,100, 000 in domestic warehouse credits. Manufacturing Indexes Employehours! \ DEPOSITS * vW 1400 zv'-'W a, "A 1200 TOTAL LOANS AND INVESTMENTS Employment* Payrolls* (indexes are percentages of the 1923-25 average Per cent Per cent taken as 100. Total and group indexes are weighted Feb. change from Feb. change from 1938 1938 proportionately.) index Feb. Jan. index Feb. Jan. 1937 1938 1937 1938 Feb. 1938— per cent change from 76 -16 Iron, steel and prods....... Non-fer. metal prods.. . . Transportation equip.. . . Textiles and clothing. . . . Textiles........................... Clothing.......................... Food products................... Stone, clay and glass. . . . Lumber products............. Chemicals and prods.. . . Leather and products . . . Paper and printing.......... Printing........................... Others: Cigars and tobacco. . . Rubber tires, goods. . . Musical instruments. . PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT 1600 IOOO (All figures are rounded from original data) All manufacturing.......... REPORTING MEMBER BANKS MILLION 5 $ Employment and Payrolls in Pennsylvania -38 69 105 57 89 84 108 101 66 45 84 85 95 91 -18 — 16 -19 -20 -20 -18 - 1 -24 -24 -10 -14 - 3 - 2 64 76 52 - 0 -20 - 5 * Figures from 2,314 plants. + + + + 0 68 -27 4 6 1 6 +14 - 1 - 1 - 4 - 1 + 5 - 0 - 0 65 112 50 76 73 91 101 53 35 85 81 95 94 -37 -20 -24 -26 -27 -21 +15 - 1 - 4 50 72 47 - 7 -29 - 5 4 Feb. Jan. 1937 1938 + 4 - 0 - 5 +10 + 4 + 3 -45 -32 -34 -33 -35 -26 - 8 -45 -40 -27 -23 -10 - 5 + 14 + 1 - 5 -11 -35 -14 +20 +1» +20 - 0 + 5 - 3 -36 -32 -13 -19 - 4 - 2 + 3 - 1 - 5 + 2 +18 + 18 +19 + o + 6 - 1 + 3 +12 + 5 + 2 +17 + 1 - 6 t Figures from 2,072 plants. INVESTMENTS 800 General Index Numbers — V*»% Covering twelve branches of trade and industry m*s 600 Employment (Indexes are percentages of the 1932 average taken as 100. In Per cent dividual indexes are combined Feb. change from proportionately into general in 1938 dex number.) index Feb. Jan. 1937 1938 LOANS KTC'"........ 400 'A General index (weighted)___ BALAN CES AT RESERVE Manufacturing............................. Anthracite mining....................... Bituminous coal mining............ Building and construction........ Quarrying and non-met. mining Crude petroleum producing . . BANK A ND OTHER BANKS 200 Retail trade................................... Wholesale trade........................... Hotels.............................................. Laundries....................................... Dyeing and cleaning.................. n 193 6 Less cash items in process of collection 1937 1938 106 -13 319 80 109 54 81 158 95 109 114 113 100 94 -16 — 6 -15 -22 -25 - 0 + — — + 4 5 5 3 + 1 - 1 Payrolls Feb. 1938 index 136 - 0 + 0 + 1 — 5 -11 166 79 171 69 110 168 - 3 - 1 — 2 + 4 - 1 + 1 - 1 - 1 120 114 132 115 105 Per cent change from Feb. 1937 Jan. 1938 -22 -27 + 3 -31 -14 -46 + + + - 3 1 8 -10 + 4 - 0 - 0 - 3 +10 + 6 + 2 - 0 - 1 + 2 - 2 + 4 2 4 Percentage change—February 1938 from February 1937 City areas* Manufacturing Building permits (value) EmploymentAllentown. . . Altoona......... Harrisburg. . Johnstown... Lancaster. . . Philadelphia. Reading........ Scranton. .. . Trenton......... Wilkes-Barre Williamsport Wilmington.. York.............. Wage payments -14 -19 -22 -44 + - 8 68 -20 + - 23 15 5 64 30 70 71 - 46 + - 26 76 22 -10 -32 -14 -12 -15 -19 -13 -13 — 7 -19 -21 -52 -19 -15 -27 -21 -20 -24 -13 -22 -27 + - Debits Retail trade sales -10 - -16 - 4 -23 -11 - 15 - 9 - 4 -13 - 2 - 7 -10 -18 -19 -13 -14 - 7 -15 -13 + 8 + 6 INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS PENNSYLVANIA PERCENT PAYROLLS 1 -15 -21 February 1938 from January 1938 Allentown. . . Altoona......... Harrisburg. . Johnstown... Lancaster. . . Philadelphia. Reading........ Scranton. . . . Trenton......... Wilkes-Barre Williamsport Wilmington.. York.............. + 1 + 3 1 + 9 + + + 0 2 2 2 2 4- l +4 o + 4 + + 6 + 6 3 +10 - 8 + 4 +13 + + 6 6 + 9 +7 1 +13 + 126 - 33 - 44 +1133 + 116 - 17 - 33 + 150 + 214 + 115 - 44 + 18 + 162 -17 -17 -14 -10 -10 + + 8 3 - 5 +25 -10 -18 -13 -16 -16 -19 + 4 -34 -19 -10 -11 + 6 + 8 +13 + EMPLOYMENT 1 1933 * Area not restricted to the corporate limits of cities given here. 1934 1935 1937 1938 Page Seven OUTPUT OF MANUFACTURES Index numbers of individual lines of trade and manufacture PHILADELPHIA FEDERAL RESERVE DISTRICT Philadelphia Federal Reserve District Index numbers: percentages of the 1923-1925 average as 100 Not adjusted Adjusted for seasonal variation Adjusted indexes allow for the usual seasonal change in activity. Per cent change Unadjusted indexes reflect merely the actual change which may or may not Feb. Dec. Jan. Feb. 1937 1937 1938 1938 be typical. Feb. 1938 1938 Month Year ago ago mos. 1937 - 6 — 5 - 8 - 8 - 6 -12 Feb. Dec. Jan. Feb. 1937 1937 1938 1938 Retail trade Sales Total of all stores....................... Department............................ Men’s apparel......................... Women’s apparel................... Shoe........................................... Credit........................................ 81 r 76 77 107 72 82 78 72 71 108 72 81 76 76 71 72 75 65 98 100 73 70 78 78 - 1 + 2 -13 + 2 - 4 + 0 - 6 - 5 -15 - 7 - 2 - 5 Stocks of goods Total of all stores....................... Department............................ Men’s apparel......................... Women’s apparel................... Shoe........................................... Credit........................................ 80 62 r 69 123 72 107 80 79 55 56 84 90 111 109 107 107 71 68 78 103 101 106 - 1 + 1 -24 + X +15 + 5 - 2 -10 +22 -13 + 9 - 1 78 Rate of stock turnover 2 months (actual, not indexes) 63 58 r 62 79 55 73 129 130 120 162 93 125 58 51 70 88 58 52 77 59 r 68 116 74 52 92 102 66 95 71 76 49 53 87 83 91 101 62 72 96 104 66 105 0* 59 55 53 74 53 70 0.54 0.54 Wholesale trade + 2* +68* Total of all lines......................... Boots and shoes...................... Drugs........................................ Dry goods................................ Electrical supplies................. Groceries.................................. Hardware................................. Jewelry..................................... Paper........................................ - 3* _ 4* +17* - 9* + 7* +32* + 5* Stocks of goods Total of all lines......................... Boots and shoes..................... Dry goods. , . ......................... Electrical supplies................. Groceries.................................. Hardware................................. Jewelry..................................... Paper........................................ Output of manufactures Pig iron............................................. Steel................................................... Iron castings.................................... Steel castings................................... Electrical apparatus...................... Motor vehicles................... ............. Automobile parts and bodies.... Locomotives and cars................... Shipbuilding..................................... Silk manufactures.......................... Woolen and worsteds.................... Cotton products............................. Carpets and rugs............................ Hosiery.............................................. Underwear....................................... Cement.............................................. Brick............... ................................... Lumber and products................... Bread and bakery products......... Slaughtering, meat packing........ Sugar refining.................................. Canning and preserving............... Cigars................................................ Paper and wood pulp.................... Printing and publishing............... Shoes.................................................. Leather, goat and kid.................... Explosives....................................... Paints and varnishes..................... Petroleum products....................... Coke, by-product........................... 83 89 92 81 52 136 81 46 56 55 56p 61 107 84 89 89 75 64 60 64 98 97 90 r 92 179 120 127 150 105 74 r 81 86p 85 86 73 83 75r 73 91 81 159 165 162 168p 125 87 82 78 * Computed from data unadjusted for seasonal variation. Page Eight 77 78 77 69 69 72 72 101 81 127 115 26 73 43 240 110 89 65 184 117 162 43 61 33 90 92 35 54 50 35 50 42 105 15 62 32 293 73 34 35 50 77 91 36 33 28 91 87 39 49 45 78 83 19 51 27 257 58 31 32r 39 68 56 88 56 89 75 98 188 113 85 89 157 132 61 65 98 102 80 86 79 165 84 -lo* 95 -37* - 5* -33* -34* — 2* -26* -25* - 6* -28* -25* -24* + 4* + 6* + 5* -10* + 1* + 9* _ 4* — 4* 70 35 40 33 50 47 96 79 54 49 41 113 89 74 59 120 108 89 81 19 22 18 25 51 68 64 27 52 26 42 32 245 279 252 262 56 r 68 104 71 36 87 36 31 33 31 32 61 181 52 40 47 113 79 63 79 148 92 93 100 61 44 20 23 63 34 30 r 30 34 28 25 22 97 -17* -18* _ 4* -35* — 5* -12* + 4* -21* _ \* + 6* -16 — 5 -16 -20 - 9 -16 +1 - 4 + 4 +21 + 17 -52 -51 -48 -48 -33 -27 -23 -37 + 7 -34 -58 -47 -74 -30 -33* + 3 + 18 +24 + 7 +13 + 1 -11 - 0* + 7 -44 + 0 + 0 + 6 + 2 +18 + 6 +13 - 3 + 4 - 5 -24* -33 -62 -53 -36 - 3* - 3 -13 - 9 -16 -14 - 5 -16 -18 - 3 -19 +« -37 -49 -51 -41 -43 -29 -14 -29 -34 + 8 -39 -61 -49 -75 -39 -35 -57 —52 -32 - 2* - 4 -23 - 9 -13 -17 — 5 -22 -20 -10 -20 + a -37 p—Preliminary. 86 66 78 19 56 27 257 73 37 35 48 82 66 109 91 14 16 28 r 29 23 21 88 88 92 90 56 59 54 52p 73 75 60 64 90 r 92 129 157 86 93p 73 83 68r 72 161 167p 82 82 r—Revised
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