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CHICAGO, MARCH 31, 1921 e s i t a n c y is a g a i n m a n i f e s t i n g it s e l f in b u s in e s s in t h e m id d l e H West. Factors in this condition are: uncertainty on account of a continuance of high retail prices for many articles that make up the daily living budget; curtailed building opera tions, due to high cost of construction, and the consequent shortage of housing and further increase of rentals; the attitude of greater resistance by wage earners to any lowering of the pay scale; the turning of the attention of farmers from marketing to new crop preparations, thus delaying liquidation of farm holdings; the continued heavy demand for money and the high interest rates. These more or less conflicting factors tend to confuse the business mind and are resulting in extreme caution and operations on a hand to mouth basis in manufacturing and distributive lines. Offsetting them, however, there come from all the agricultural sections of the Seventh Federal Reserve District reports of favorable weather, the early disappearance of frost from the ground, contributing to early plowing, and an assurance that the wheat has come through the winter in good condition, and has sustained little damage from alternating freezing and thaw ing. This has spurred the farmer to seek increased production. The exceptionally small snow fall during the winter, however, has resulted in a lack of moisture in the soil and this in turn has given rise to some apprehension about the crops soon to go into the ground. This is especiady true in Iowa where the March rainfall has not been so bounteous. LIQU IDATION OF LOANS PRO CEED IN G SLOW LY The liquidation of loans in the Middle West is proceeding in a halting way, although some progress over a period of weeks appears to have been made. Frozen credit is still a factor in banking and the thaw ing out process is becoming slower as the volume of convertible commodities diminishes and the consumer demand for various articles continues at or below the volume of production. Here and there the situation is clearing up, but, taking industry and merchan dising as a whole, the payment of loans at the banks is progressing slowly. One of the features contributing to this situation is the rather large amount of unsold products still held on the farm. Government statistics now avail able for March 1 concern the credit position not only of the farmers but also of other lines of business as depending upon the buying power to absorb the output of the mill and factory. In 1920, the states that are included largely in the Seventh Federal Reserve District produced 1,103,084,000 bushels of corn, of which 971,000,000 were graded “ Merchantable.” The merchantable total for 1919 was slightly smaller than this— 938,000,000 bushels. The farm value of the 1919 crop ranged from $1.28 to $1.48. The total value of the 1920 merchantable crop at the price of March 1, 1920, approximates Compiled March 26, 1921 $1,28$,ooo,ooo. According to the March I statistics this year, the farm value of the merchantable corn crop of 1920 on the farms on March 1, 1921, was $$20,000,000, representing bushel prices ranging from 48 cents to 69 cents. The shrinkage in value of that part in the Seventh Federal Reserve District of the four 1920 crops now remaining on the farms, which were planted and cultivated on the 1919 basis of costs of labor, imple ments, seed, material and other supplies is shown by states as follows: YEAR S CORN Iow a ....................... Illinois................ Indiana.............. W isconsin.......... M ichigan........... T o ta l.............. W HEAT Iow a................... Illinois................ Indiana.............. STOCKS ON FARM D E CLIN E SH R IN K AG E IN MARCH I , I 9 2 I IN CENTS FARM V A L U E BUSHELS P E R B U SH E L I9 2 I-I9 2 O .......... 2 6 5 ,3 2 8 ,0 0 0 80 ? 2 I 2 , 2 6 2 ,4 0 0 .......... 1 4 1 ,2 0 1 ,0 0 0 87 1 2 2 ,8 4 4 ,4 8 7 .......... .......... 93 , 877,000 9° 8 4 ,4 8 9 ,3 0 0 2 6 ,6 7 4 ,0 0 0 76 2 0 ,2 7 2 ,2 4 0 O ATS Iow a ....................... Illinois ................... Indiana ................. W isconsin ............ M ichigan .............. CORN (Thousands o f feusheis) CROP PRODUCTION PART O F CROP H ELD ON FARMS MARCH I FOLLOWING PE R CE N T 1912 •9*3 3»'24,746 2,446,988 1,290,642 866,352 1914 2,672,804 910.894 ' 9*5 2,994.793 1,116 ,5 5 9 19 16 2,566,927 782,303 *9*7 3.o65,*33 1,253,290 1918 >2,562,665 855,269 *9*9 2,858,509 1,070,677 1920 3.232,367 1,572,397 W HEAT (Thousands of Bushels) CROP PRODUCTION I9 I2 730,267 ' 9*3 763,380 1 8 ,9 5 4 ,0 0 0 .......... .......... 3 , 5 * 3,000 .......... 8 ,9 4 7 ,0 0 0 .......... 5 , 4 * 4,000 3 , 997 , 00 ° .......... .......... $ 4 5 8 ,8 2 2 ,4 2 7 5 5 0 ,4 8 0 ,0 0 0 M ichigan .............. ^ T o ta l ................. U. S. CROP ON FARM M ARCH 1 75 74 61 67 2 1 , 8 7 1 ,0 0 0 4 , 933 ,o o o 74 ,497 , 00° H .......... .......... 3 3 ,8 2 5 ,0 0 0 .......... 2 7 ,0 8 6 ,0 0 0 634,750 6 ,6 2 0 ,7 8 0 3 , 302,540 2 , 677,990 $ 1 5 ,2 3 6 ,0 6 0 4* 43 43 4* 45 T o ta l ................. W isconsin ............ M ichigan .............. .......... 1 ,8 7 2 ,0 0 0 T o ta l ................. .......... 1 1 , 8 7 1 ,0 0 0 *9(5' 1916 8 91,017 1,025,801 636,3*8 *9*7 636,655 *9*8 9*M 38 *9*9 934,265 1920 ; 787,128 247 , * 2 2 , 53° 3 2 ,0 3 3 ,7 1 0 4 544 75 * , , ° 1 9 ,4 6 1 ,0 6 0 1 2 ,1 8 8 ,7 0 0 2 * 2 5 ,3 5 0 ,7 5 ° BARLEY Io w a ....................... Illinois ................... I9 I4 60 $ 1 ,8 2 7 ,0 0 0 61 1 ,0 3 8 ,2 2 0 59 52 2 ,8 9 8 ,0 9 0 9 7 3 ,4 4 0 2 6 ,7 3 6 ,7 5 0 G R A N D T O T A L S H R IN K A G E ...................... $606,141,987 The farmers of the five states in the Seventh Fed eral Reserve District stood to realize in one form or another more than $1,500,000,000 from the mer chantable part of their four principal 1919 crops. On the expectation of doing approximately as well with the 1920 crop, they borrowed money and pushed farming operations on a very large scale. Then came the world-wide decline in these commodities. The result was that money borrowed on the high price basis of farm products must be met out of incomes greatly curtailed through the shrinkage in the value of marketable crops. Some of these crops, of course, were sold on the decline before the present price level was reached. The Government report of stocks of grain on hand shows that 48.6 per cent of the total production of the corn; 26.4 per cent of the wheat; 46.2 per cent of the oats; and 34.6 per cent of the barley was on the farms on March 1. Taking the difference between the official farm prices of a year ago and those of March 1, 1921, and applying it to the grain not marketed, there ap pears a shrinkage amounting to more than $600,000,000. This, in a measure, indicates money value which the farmers in the Seventh Federal Reserve District expected to have in excess of what they can actually realize at present prices for the purpose of liquidating their bank borrowings and miscellaneous credits. M A R K E T IN G OF GR AIN SLOW ING DOWN Farmers are giving serious consideration to plans During February and the early part of March, the general movement of all grains from the farm was to offset the shrinkage of the value of their left-over quite liberal, but in the closing weeks of March there grain and most of them are figuring on the conversion developed a decided falling off, and the mild weather of their corn and oats into a more merchantable prod and early spring are causing farmers to turn their uct. Necessarily, wheat must be marketed here or attention to spring work, rather than to continued sent abroad to make up for the reported deficit in marketing. This, of course, is accentuated by pre Australia and the Argentine, but the feeding of corn vailing low prices for grains, notwithstanding the re and oats at the present prices to live stock offers a newal of buying of wheat on a large scale by foreigners, method of recouping losses and of liquidating indebted and of corn in moderate quantities. Corn prices are now ness of farmers to their bankers pending the harvest 10 to 15 cents a bushel below Argentine, while wheat ing of new crops. in this country is not far from the Argentine level. RESULT OF FED ER A L R ESERVE FARM Q UESTION NAIRE In order to get at the present farm situation, a questionnaire was sent out to fifty-eight representative bankers in the agricultural sections of this district. Most of these are men who are not only very familiar with the land values and farm conditions in their own immediate sections, but through correspondence and direct contact are familiar with these conditions over a wide range of agricultural territory. From twentyfive replies, covering practically all parts of the dis trict, it is possible to draw a fairly accurate picture of the farming situation in the Middle West. These ad vices indicate that both proprietor and tenant farmer have been seriously affected by the conditions which have prevailed during the crop year just closed. Of the replies, more than two-thirds take a hopeful view of the outlook, predicating this upon normal seed ing, growing and harvesting conditions. The replies also indicate an average decline of io per cent of the prospective acreage of wheat in the territories covered. Bankers are urging farmers to save the situa tion by producing as much primary wealth as their land will bear, letting the matter of prices care for itself. FARM M A R K E T VALUES R E C E D IN G The replies also indicate that the average price of farm lands under cultivation in the sections cov ered, is $183 per acre, with an average high price of $500. This is a considerable reduction from the quoted prices of a year ago. Cash rentals average around $9 per acre compared with $12 per acre a year ago. The problem of the farmer has been one of operating $200 land and furnishing the working capital required when labor cost him 40 cents an hour. This, together with the low prices of farm products, has proved an element of discouragement as the new crop year begins. Many tenant farmers who, under the inspiration of high prices for farm products, undertook to operate land on a high rental basis, are now being carried in the hope that in some way during the process of readjustment they will be able to meet their obligations. There has been some shifting among tenant farm ers. Nearly all of the replies to our questionnaire indicate an absence of speculative operations in land and little activity. This is in contrast with the boom which prevailed in 1919 and early in 1920 when fancy prices were experienced running $450 and upwards with $800 per acre frequently quoted but seldom ac tually realized in dollars. The spread of prices re ported in the Seventh District for cultivated lands, is from $90 to $800 per acre, the latter being for highly improved rich loam land. Prices are notably lower than those reported at this time last year. The March 1 farm settlement was better than expected, but there are a greater number of defaults reported this year than at previous settlement per iods. The decision of the Supreme Court in the Federal Land Bank case has shifted the loan in quiry. Applications to private mortgage bankers for farm loans in the last month are reported to have fallen off from 50 to 80 per cent, the borrowers turning to the land banks for their accommodation. FARM HOLDINGS AN D VALUES OF L IV E STO CK Comparison of the Government statistics showing live stock on the farms in the states comprising this district, reveals some notable changes, both in num ber and value. The number of dairy cows reported in Wisconsin by the Department of Agriculture has increased steadily, while the number in Iowa shows a decrease from 1907 to the present time, with a rather M ilk Cows on steady line in the period from 1911 to our participa tion in the war. The number in Illinois has fluctuated rather unevenly but is lower than in 1907. Michi gan and Indiana show a slightly greater number of milk cows at the present time. Values of the dairy herds advanced sharply in price until 1920. Within the last year there has been a sharp decrease. Farms J an.1 Farm Value 1307 08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘II '12 ‘13 D airy Cows J an. I 14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 '18 ‘19 ‘20 1321 Cattle in Iowa and Illinois from 1907 to the pres ent time show a decrease in number, while in Wis consin there is a slight increase. The number in Indiana and Michigan runs about the same, with a decrease in number at the end of the period. The value of cattle, except dairy cows, dropped in Iowa In tkoulAxds W C attle (except dairy cows) on and Illinois from the peak, but in Iowa is larger than thirteen years ago. In Indiana and Illinois it is slightly less, while in Michigan it is about equal to that of thirteen years ago. Wisconsin shows a small gain over the period. Farm V alue C a t t l e ( except Farms J an .! dairy cows) J m lI $ M illio n —J? l ----\ 1C WA — -- -- ILUWC i 2M 0 VASCO 4SVM I86 0 = ^ 0 'u ----- 08 09 *10 *11 It *19 14 15 16 *17 Id *29 1921 Hog production in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin is greater, while in Michigan the line runs fairly steady. The value advanced sharply during H ogs In on % \ / 1907 '06 '03 70 71 72 73 74 7S 76 17 78 7* ’20 1321 the war period, especially from 1916 to the armistice, after which there was a sharp drop following the market. Farms J an.1 ____ ____ \ litd xx !-_ s *■ *-7 !W M ICH . ffwrrrigs**- - ' * — **’ r~ ~ 0 1507 / _ IL| rTU IHD lf MICHU AN Y \* IOW A — ____ ________ __ / > / NA w » c c <5! It — — IJ07 *8 — — '09 10 'l l — IZ 13 — 14 — IS — 16 — 17 ^ ‘ msc hgam ’ 78 79 ‘20 1821 1907 08 09 70 II. 12 13. 74 IS 76 77 78 79 '20 1921 D EM AN D FOR FU R N ITU R E CONTIN UES SLOW Restricted buying power, due to the housing situa tion and to other factors, has curtailed the demand for furniture sufficiently to keep it below the production schedule of the last few months. Stocks on hand the middle of March outside Chicago are reported to be larger than they were a year ago, due to the cancella tion of orders by dealers previous to the beginning of the current year. In Chicago the operating forces have been increased somewhat and 38 plants are operating 52 per cent of the first two months of 1920 and 64 per cent of pre-war normal. The recapitulated replies to the questionnaires sent out by the Fed eral Reserve Bank of Chicago to members of the Chicago Furniture Manufacturers Association, based on the average of 38 factories reporting, show the fol lowing condition at the beginning of March: Percentage o f manufactured and finished stock on hand compared with 1. 1. One year ago...................................................................... Pre-war normal of 1914................................................... 128% 138%* Percentage o f capacity at which plants are operating at the present time compared with 1. 2. One year ago...................................................... ................ Pre-war normal of 1914.................................................... 52% 64% Increase in operations within the past 30 days 1. 2. 18 factories report no increase. * 20 factories report increases. Collections good or bad. 1. 2. 3. 4 factories report good. 23 factories report fair. 11 factories report bad. Whether retailers are overstocked or understocked. Percentage o f raw material stock on hand compared with 1. _ One year ago....................................................................... 2. Pre-war normal o f 1914.................................................... 96% 201% 1. 2. 3. 4 factories report overstocked. 8 factories report normal. 26 factories report understocked. AU TOM OBILE IN D U ST R Y R ECO VER IN G SLOW LY In the automobile industry improvement is noted in practically all of the reports and this is supported by the statistical data showing that the number of employees at work in the plants at Detroit, which of course is the automobile center, has increased about 22 per cent. This refers not only to car build ing plants but also to those engaged in making acces sories. Reports on deliveries for February indicate a total shipment of 9,400 carloads of automobiles with 6,700 machines driven away. Computing driveaways in carload equivalents, the February shipments are running approximately 50 per cent greater than in January, and about one-third of the total deliveries for February, 1920, when shipments amounted to 25,505 carloads and 43,719 machines driven away. It is difficult even if possible for automobile manu facturers at this time to determine upon any definite production program for this year. Most of the manu facturers are working up material on hand, and as one of the larger manufacturers explains, they are following a policy of producing only what they have firm orders to ship. Necessarily under this policy stocks of raw material and of finished material, other than completed cars, are smaller than a year ago. The diminished production of cars during the win ter was regarded necessary, because dealers had ab sorbed all they could carry before the year ended. Stocks of cars in the hands of the dealers are not much greater according to advices than ordinarily at the beginning of spring but the buying power so far has not manifested itself in the purchase of new cars to the same extent as a year ago. Stocks of the higher priced cars are moving much more slowly than the moderate priced cars, but the demand has increased for all classes in the last month. On account of the money strin gency, automobile manufacturers have been rather len ient during the winter in enforcing prompt payment on parts accounts, allowing dealers and distributors to use the cash they had to take up drafts covering car ship ments. The bulk of the sales of cars is on a “ Sight Draft bill of lading” basis, credit being extended for parts accounts. Drafts covering car shipments are reported as being taken up more promptly than earlier in the year. Outstanding parts accounts are reported by several manufacturers as lower on March 1 than on February 1, indicating that not only were the shipments of these concerns made in January paid for in February, but a part of the delinquent accounts of previous months were met. Manufacturers continue cautious but express in their reports a feeling of en couragement regarding the buying attitude of the pub lic, the country over; collections show improvement, the only exceptions being the condition in the cotton belt, and in a part of the Minneapolis district, and in the territory tributary to Salt Lake City, where settlements are slow for local reasons. The production of passenger automobiles last year by all excepting a few smaller plants totaled 1,609,000. while the shipments from the same plants, (figuring carload lots in machine equivalents) amounted to I,428,277. There have been shipped since the first of January approximately 67,850 passenger automobiles. IN D U STR IAL E M PLO YM E N T CONDITIONS Labor is facing the natural outcome of the indus trial readjustment period through which the country is passing. The question of the necessity of effecting a general wage reduction is becoming more and more insistent. The railroad dispute has been up for set tlement since January Reports concerning volume of employment show no improvement during the past month. Returns from our own labor questionnaire also show little change. E N T IR E CH ICAG O I. II. III. Number employed as compared with (a) the preceding m o n th ....................... (b) the same month a year a g o ........... Amount o f pay roll as compared with (a) the preceding m onth....................... (b) the same month a year ago........... . Percentage o f capacity o f plant operating (a) February, 1921............................... (b) January, 1921................................. (c) February, 1920............................... These figures were computed from the returns of 71 manufacturing firms, 33 of which are located in Chicago. The total number employed by these plants at the present time is 51,528 and about 12 per cent of these are women. There was a small increase in the activity of plants manufacturing lumber, cement, and paint, and in the sash and door factories. The increase in the amount of employment of these industries taken to gether was 8.6 per cent over the previous month, which is still about 35 per cent below that of a year ago. The makers of boots and shoes, and food products experienced little change. Furniture de creased by 2.6 per cent but the metal and ma chinery workers, comprising about one third of the total number reported, showed a slight falling off. D ISTR ICT 0.2% decrease 2.4% increase 21.4% decrease 31.2% decrease 3.0% decrease 2.4% '[increase 21.4% decrease 38.8% “decrease 63% 62% 90% In comparing the volume of employment with that of a year ago in these industries, boots and shoes de clined 48 per cent, food products 29 per cent, metal and machinery 35 per cent, and furniture 23 per cent. The reduction in the pay roll for the same period kept slightly ahead of the reduction in the working force, except in food products where the decrease was slightly lower, 27 per cent as against 29 per cent. Returns from distributive concerns indicate an in crease of 2 per cent in their working force for the month and a decrease of 22 per cent for the year. The situation in Detroit as indicated by statistics compiled by the employers is improving but at a slow rate. As quoted in our last issue 54,870 men were employed on February 22, of whom 36,650 were work ing part time, 37 hours per week. The latest figures furnished us March 22, give 82,187 employed with 46,082 working 39 hours per week. Indianapolis reports a falling off of 22 per cent and Chicago 2.9 per cent during February. The records of the Free Employment Bureaus of the several states in this district give further data on the employment situation. The supply of labor as indicated by the number of registrations for each 100 places open shows the following changes for the month: 1921 FE B R U A R Y IL L IN O IS Agriculture............................ Building and Construction........... C lerical.......................... M etal and M achinery................. Miscellaneous.................. Common L ab or........................ Chicago................................ Illinois (including Chicago).......... . . . . M ichigan............................ JANUARY 298.6 I ° 35-9 2 l8 .6 84O.8 317.9 653-9 4 O O .3 329.I 261.2 274-5 432.0 This seems to indicate a considerable increase in building activity but a great falling off in the metal and machinery trades. Clerical workers also are in less demand while common labor gained somewhat. A report from the Bureau of Labor of Iowa gives the following estimate of reductions in the number employed as compared with normal times: Textile products, clothing, hosiery, underwear— 10 plants inspected during February— a decrease of 43 per cent. Clay, glass, cement, and stone products— 6 plants in the heavy clay producing territory— 32 per cent reduction. Metal products, machinery, electric goods, foun dry products covering 42 plants in 13 cities— 57 per cent reduction in working forces. Lumber, house furniture, boxes and products— 14 plants in 6 cities— 56 per cent reduction. Packing houses and food products— 23 plants in 10 cities— 48 per cent reduction. Five railway shops in 5 cities— 35 per cent reduc tion. The Department of Labor figures for February 28, compared with those for January 31, show a decrease in the number of workers employed in the United States from 1,643,253 to 1,626,958 or nearly 1 per cent. Our figures covering normal working capacity of about 85,000 employees show an average of 2.4 per cent increase in number employed between the two dates. M ERCH AN TS B U YIN G CAU TIO U SLY A N D R E D U CIN G STOCKS offered and not as a general stimulant to trade activi Cautious buying and a tendency to reduce stocks ties. Changes in buying power have not been the to a minimum are reported as continuing on the part same in various industries, and in fact in the same in of both wholesaler and retailer. From reports of results of special bargain sales, it appears that these dustry, about half the firms showing increases while have been effective only for the particular “ Bargains” the other half show no changes. R E T A IL T R A D E — T W E N T Y D E P A R T M E N T STO R E S— F E B R U A R Y , 192x 6.3% decrease N et Sales— February, 1921, compared with February, 1920..................................................................................................... ............; . N et Sales— January-February, 1921, compared with January-February, 1920...................................................................................... 5.9% decrease Stocks— February, 1921, compared with February, 1920............................................................................................................................ 10.7% decrease Stocks— February, 1921, compared with January, 192 1.............................................................................................................................. 4-4% increase Ratio o f Stocks to Sales— January-February, 1 9 2 1 ..................................................................................................................................... 398.0% Outstanding orders February, 1921, to total purchases 1920...................................................................................................................... 9-6% The rate at which stocks are being moved is indi cated by average January and February inventories to average January and February sales given as 398.0 per cent, i. e., the average stocks were approximately 4 months’ sales; in other words that at this rate, stock would turn over 3 times per year. An increase in percentage of outstanding orders over last month is noted. A small increase in inventories is shown for the month. Retail dry goods merchants continue on a short buying program with stocks somewhat heavier than last month due to receipt of the spring goods but with less on hand than a year ago. Prices have de clined from 20 to 25 per cent on the average. Wholesale grocers report stocks less than a year ago and generally less than the preceding month. Activity in sugar is particularly noticeable. Prices average 30 to 40 per cent less than a year ago, decreases up to 63 per cent being shown while increases occur in very few articles. Wholesale hardware stocks are larger than a year ago with retailers’ stocks light. Prices average about 10 per cent less than a month ago ^nd from 10 to 25 per cent less than a year ago. Volume of wholesale busi ness in pianos shows increase of over a month ago but considerably under that of a year ago. Retail stocks have not yet been liquidated but sales compare fav orably with a year ago with volume at least as great as last month. Raw wool sales are satisfactory in volume of units, but with little if any advance in prices over last month. W H O LE SA L E T R A D E — F E B R U A R Y , 1921 N E T SA LE S IN COM PARISON PR ICE T E N D E N C Y N ON W ITH FE B R U A R Y I9 2 O NUM BER D ry Goods. .13 S h o e s.......... 8 Groceries . . . 20 Clothing---- 5 Tailoring . . . 4 46.4% 53.0% 24.1% 58.0% 31.0% Decrease Decrease Decrease Decrease Decrease DOWN ST A B L E CO M M ITTAL 12% 33% 59% 45% 18 % 55 % 23% 13% 100% 100% 42% Cancellations of orders were negligible. Buying continues cautious but less so than in the previous month. In the shoe trade 30 per cent reported buy- ing as normal. With regard to prices the reports vary, and many did not venture any opinion as to future developments. LE A TH E R AN D SHOE T R A D E M A R K IN G T IM E While hides and skins continue at prices below those prevailing in 1914, leathers vary from approxi mately pre-war prices on certain grades to 25 per cent above on others. That the reduction in leather has not kept pace with that in raw material is ex plained by the increased cost of tannage. Stock of leather in the hands of shoe manufacturers is being kept as low as possible. Stock of finished goods in some cases above normal, due to cancellations in the last six months, is being reduced. Wholesale shoe prices range from pre-war levels to 30 or 35 per cent above, and are made in many cases below reproduc tion cost, in order to move stock and liquidate inven- tories. Manufacturers have taken losses on goods held at high prices and, while retailers generally have not followed the wholesale price downward, a growing tendency to do so is in evidence. Exports are im proving. In the domestic market, rush orders to accommodate the Easter demand have been placed, showing the tendency of the retailer to enter orders only to fill his immediate requirements. Tanners report production approximately the same as last month and 40 to 50 per cent of the vol ume a year ago. Stocks of finished and partially finished goods are larger than at this time last year. PROD UCTION M OVING SLOW LY The production in bituminous coal is lower than at any other time in the last four years. In the last three months the demand for immediate shipment has been the limiting factor, the transportation and labor supply are now sufficient whereas last year produc tion was limited only by labor and car supply. Increased demand for spot shipment pig iron is noted. Much hope is being based on the resumption of activities in the motor industry as giving an oppor tunity to foundrymen to liquidate stocks of castings, which have been held in storage for many months and this in turn will enable them to specify more liberally for shipments against their contracts for pig iron and coke. Demand for steel products is far below normal but signs of improvement are in evidence. New busi ness is coming in slowly and most of the mills are re ducing their obligations. Lumber production shows an increase of around 10 per cent over last month, but a 60 per cent decrease from last year. Stocks are light at mill manufacturing points but heavy at distributing points. Production of watches and jewelry is not increas ing. Inventories in the hands of retailers are about the same as a year ago, having been reduced during the past month. The textile market is unsettled and buying con tinues on a hand to mouth basis. L IV E STO CK R ECEIPTS Chicago hog receipts for the month show an in crease over the corresponding period last year and a slight decrease over last month at an average price considerably under last year. Sheep receipts were under a month ago but over last year with some fluc tuation in price. During February sheep prices touched the lowest point in five years. Cattle re ceipts decreased from the previous month and year, Receipts o f live stock at the principal markets during February, and periods o f the previous year, show the following changes: 1921 CA T T L E February........................................... 26 per cent decrease First two m onths............................ 29 per cent decrease but prices are slightly higher compared with the previous month. Receipt o f live stock at Chicago for the four weeks ending M arch 12, 1921, compares with 1920 as follows: YEAR CA T T L E 1921........... 1920........... 197,656 208,880 Increase... f Decrease. 11,224! C A LV E S HOGS SH EEP 60,471 55,585 710,702 615,994 358,242 4,886 94,'708 107,705 250,537 •ing the first two months of 1921, compared with the corresponding CA LV E S 12 per cent decrease 15 per cent decrease SH EE P AN D LAM BS HOGS 8 per cent increase 3 per cent decrease 3 per cent decrease 9 per cent decrease Receipts o f hogs at the six principal markets during February, 1921, aggregated 1,923,806 head, against 1,909,122 in February, 1920. The average prices compared as follows per hundredweight: February, 1921.......................................................................................................... February, 1920...................................... Tw o months— 1921................................................................................................... Two months— 1920................................................................................................... CA TTLE CATTLE CH OICE COMMON $10.56 16.50 10.65 17.28 $ 8.52 13.01 8.51 13.51 SH EE P $ 5.19 13.35 5.00 12.42 LAM BS HOGS $ 9.42 20.00 10.00 19.64 ? 9-35 14.95 9.37 Cash lard in February, 1921, ranged from $11.3254 to $12.5754 cwt. compared with $19.75 t0 $2 I -55 "ln February, 1920. Cash ribs in February, 1921, ranged from $11.00 to $11.75 cw t- compared with $17.8754 to $19.3754 in February, 1920. 14-75 BU ILD IN G A C T IV IT Y IN PROSPECT F E B R U A R Y , 1921 Structural production is at a low point. The brick industry is at a standstill with brick manufactured in mid-summer of last year still awaiting delivery. High wages, money rates and uncertainty over the general outlook contribute to the general building inactivity. However, building permit statistics for February in leading cities of the district offer much encouragement, showing an increase in number of 29 per cent and a decrease of only 8 per cent in estimated cost compared with a year ago. An increase in Chicago both in number and estimated costs points to some revival there, although two especially large permits of $1,000,000 and $3,500,000 respectively, are included. Out of 311 permits in that city, 181 are for residence construction. Building permits of cities of the Seventh Federal Reserve district compare as follows: F E B R U A R Y , 1921 IL L IN O IS A ufo ra ............. Chicago............ D ecatur........... E vanston......... Peoria............... Rockford......... ' Springfield----T o t a I ............ IN D IA N A Fort W a y n e ... G ary ................. H a m m o n d .... Indianapolis... Richm ond........ South B e n d ... Terre H a u te ... T o ta l............ Estimated Cost No. o f Buildings 13$ 25,325 27610,417,700 29 228,350 37 69,080 33 101,525 37 118,735 65 584,435 .. 47 .. 49 .. •• .. 571 49 ° * i i »545, i 5° 36 * I 57 57 39 512 9 67 56 5, 7 I 4,245 $208,600 177,955 135,900 617,834 287,063 72,955 244,260 797 #U744,567 20 $ 108,630 26 125,630 19 76,402 3711,313,591 11 29,800 126 82,089 22 68,175 595 Cedar R apid s.. D aven port. . . . Des M oines. . . Dubuque......... Mason C i t y . .. Sioux C ity . . . . T o ta l... ^1,804,317 91 41 78 .. 889 •• 258 Per Cent Cost Gain Loss 61 $121,820 28 41 56 14 *7 54 59,870 73 176,390 61,860 5,150 79,610 $504,700 243 $106,000 310,500 82 6 28 84 15 13,500 80 54 388,750 358 26,520 80 379,400 79 301 $1,224,670 58 25,359 2 20 M IC H IG A N Battle Creek.. B ay C ity ......... D etro it............ F lin t................. Grand Rapids J ackson............ Kalam azoo. . . Lansing............ Saginaw ......... Per Cent Cost Gain Loss M 11,575 311 15,366,000 38 5W 5 44 103,025 39 71,100 72 54,170 59 57,200 Estimated Cost No. o f Buildings IOW A F E B R U A R Y , 1920 Estimated Cost Estimated Cost 31 * 40 1,101 121 ” 3 29 29 73 112 24,725 16 $ 37,500 56 2,659,280 120,71:6 198,323 47,805 32,080 r 3 3 ,I2 5 106,083 809 105 54 T o ta l............ 1,649 * 3 ,359,677 16 47,000 7,767,680 223,302 222,177 13,800 136,700 57 75 77,225 72,985 52 13 65 46 10 246 VO No. o f Buildings No. of Buildings F E B R U A R Y , 1920 72 45 60 1,199 $8,586,228 77 30 W ISC O N SIN 54 90 Kenosha.......... M adison........... M ilw aukee__ Oshkosh........... S h e b o y g a n .... 36 $ 38,030 19 27,700 3381,191,723 .. 14,195 47 25,625 53 $ I 73>°37 45 138,875 1251,173,273 40 31,200 26 17,674 •• .. 1 .. 45 78 .. . . 15 8 53 Total.......... 440 $1,297,273 289 $1,534,059 Grand Total. 3,7oo$22,62o,462 2,874 $24,694,424 11 Building Statistics compiled by F . W . Dodge Company. 80 54 3 BU ILD IN G STATISTICS FOR TH E M ONTH OF FE B R U A R Y , 1921 CH ICAGO D ISTR ICT (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Missouri and portions of Eastern Kansas and Nebraska.) CO N TE M PLA TE D PRO JECTS CO N TRACTS AW ARD ED N O. OF N O. OF C LA SS PROJECTS V A L U A T IO N NEW PROJECTS FLOOR SPACE V A L U A T IO N (SQ . F T .) Business Buildings............................ Educational Buildings..................... Hospitals and Institutions. . . . . . . . Industrial Buildings......................... M ilitary and N aval Buildings....... Public Buildings................................ Public Works and Public Utilities. Religious and Memorial Buildings Residential Buildings....................... Social and Recreational Buildings. 272 831 68 $13,530,200 17,927,500 2,057,000 11,844,500 169,500 1,714,000 3 5,006,900 4,041,000 19,380,400 8,591,000 1,867 $114,262,000 14 1 20 96 5 18 361 (a) T o ta l........................................... 55 121 29 6 54 2 4 ” 5 15 (b) 572 18 1,469,000 427,500 85,600 602,200 6,000 62,500 ................... 148,000 1,685,300 266,900 936 $6,325,100 2,432,000 702,000 2 ,693,300 35,000 451,800 8,937 ,100 872,000 7 ,953 ,3«5 2,189,500 $32,59!,100 CO N TRACTS AW ARDED January 1 to M arch 1 192 1....................................... 1920....................................... 1 9x9 ....................................... 1918....................................... ( a ) . . . . 1,287 Buildings. (b) . . . . 732 Buildings. $ 68,424,000 129,880,000 68.918.000 33.438.000 *9 * 7 ....................... 1916 ....................... 1915....................... i 9 * 4 ....................... ....................... 27,419,000 1913 ....................... 1912....................... 1 9 1 1 ....................... 1910....................... .......................$22,330,000 ....................... 13,724,000 ....................... 31,384,000 ....................... 26,185,407 Statistics compiled by F. W . Dodge Company. BAN K ST A TE M E N T R E F L E C TS C R E D IT SITUATION As shown by the accompanying charts, the March i settlement period combined with tax payments a F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F C H IC A G O B IL L S O N H A N D A N D P R IN C IP A L L I A B I L I T Y IT E M S MILLIONS OF DOLLARS short time later, was anticipated by increase of bor rowings at the Federal Reserve Bank of TO R ;s. -JOTe s In / CT JA cikct LA riaN. Chicago, the latter part of February with some reduction by March 4, after which an increase is again noted. TonA1 RE IE I V S3 The settlements involved a large number of renewals \ and held over payments and it is generally believed that proceeds of a new crop must be realized before TOTA D EI os T.! general liquidation of farmer paper can be effected. Considerable decrease in Federal Reserve notes in actual circulation is shown with an increasing re serve until February 11. The ratio of total reserves to combined deposit and Federal Reserve note liabil ity, shows increase to February 11, with decrease and fluctuations thereafter, and followed by a sharp decline after March 18, as will be seen in the accom panying chart. 7 14 21 a JAW. 4 II 18 25 4 T£B. II IS 25 MAR,. Note:— On M arch 18, a change was made in the method o f com putation o f the reserve ratio from which date, Total Deposits were used instead o f N et Deposits as previously. Th e result o f computation by each method is shown in the chart; (A) gives the reserve ratio as actually computed to M arch n , and (B) that based on the method o f computation in use beginning M arch 18. CLEARIN GS M O VEM EN T SHOWS IN CREA SE Clearings movement, as indicated in the aggregate debits to individual accounts, shows an increase of about 11.4 per cent compared with the previous month, and a decrease of 24.7 per cent over a year ago. The total debits as of March 16, 1921, reported by 209 banks in 24 leading clearing house centers, in cluding Chicago, were $994,098,000, an increase of $102,077,000 over the corresponding week of Febru ary, and a decrease of $325,986,000 compared with the same period of last year. CO M M ERCIAL P A PE R AN D A C C E P T A N C E M A R K E T The results of inquiries from commercial paper dealers indicate that there has been a strong demand for money from regularly borrowing industries. Buy ing was chiefly country banks and small banks of the large cities. Rates for February ranged from 7 to 8 per cent. The market for acceptances has widened consider ably. Reports from one large firm show an increase of 200 per cent in number of customers, over Febru ary, 1920. The range of rates reported for February was 5 K per cent to 6 per cent. Confidential inquiry in Chicago regarding volume and rates on bankers’ acceptances shows that five leading banks and one dealer handled during February: Total bankers acceptances bought during month..............$25,887,409 Total bankers acceptances sold during m onth................... $24,763,067 T otal bankers acceptances held during m o n th .................. $ 4,142,013 Selling Rates o f Prime Bills: h ig h 30 day m atu rity..................................................... $X% 60 day m atu rity..................................................... 57^% 90 day m atu rity................................ : ................ 6% low $% % 5^% 5K % Trade acceptances have not as yet developed as an open market factor. They are mostly discounted by the holders’ banker and retained by the bank. COMPARATIVE PRICES SINCE i860 IN U. S. In the following chart, Dun’s Index number is shown as of July 1 for the last sixty years; also the spread for H IG H E S T the years 1910 to 1920; and the index numbers by months for 1919 and 1920. P R .IC D . JUQW EST "PRICE) OPEN M A R K E T DISCOUN T AN D IN TE R E ST RATES A T CHICAGO The open market range of discount and interest comparison of rates during the thirty-day periods rates prevailing in Chicago, during the thirty-day ending February 15, 1921, and March 15, 1920, period ending March 15, 1921, together with a follows: M A R C H , 1921 F E B R U A R Y , 1921 M A R C H , 1920 * CU STO M HIGH Rates o f discount charged by banks to customers for prime commercial paper such as is now eligible under the Federal Reserve A ct: a. Running 30, 60 and 90 d ay s................................... b. Running 4 to 6 m onths........................................... Rates for prime commercial paper purchased in the open market: a. Running 30 to 90 d a y s ........................................... b. Running 4 to 6 m onths............................................ Rates charged on loans to other banks— secured by bills payable................................................................................... Rates for bankers acceptances o f 60 to 90 days maturities: a . Endorsed..................................................................... b. Unendorsed................................................................ Rates for demand paper secured by prime stock exchange collateral or other current collateral................................. Rates for time paper secured by collateral mentioned in Number 5: a. Running 3 m onths.................................................... b. Running 3 to 6 m onths............................................ Rates (when paper is current in city) for: a. Cattle loans................................................................ b. Commodity paper secured by warehouse re ceipts, e tc ............................................ .......................... Rates for ordinary ^commercial loans running 30, 60, 90 days (not including loans to enable purchase o f bonds) secured by Liberty bonds and certificates o f indebted ness.......................................................................................... 7 7 8 LOW * ARY 6K 7 7 7 7 7 CU S TO M HIGH 7 7 9 LOW 6K 7 7 ARY 7 7 7 CU S TO M HIGH LOW ARY 7 7 6 6 6@ 6^ 6@ 6 K 7 7 6 6 6(31 6K 5^ 6@ 6 K 6^ 6 6 6 6@ 6^ 6@6 - k 6@ 6>£ 7 6 y3 7 7 6K 7 7 6 6 @ 6K 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 6K 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6@6.K 6@ 6 ^ 7 7 7 7 7 7 6y 6K ey * 7 7 7 7 7 7 6y 6y 6 ^ 7 6y 6y 5K 6 @ 6 }£ 7 l 6 'A > 6y @ y 6 K @7 SPREAD OF WHEAT PRICES COVERING 60 YEARS The spread of wheat prices for the past sixty years is shown in the accompanying chart; also the spread by months for 1919 and 1920. These prices are taken from the Chicago Board of Trade Records. It is interesting to note that the peak reached by general commodity prices during the Civil War shows higher by Dun’s index number than in the period of re adjustment following the World War, while that of wheat prices in 1920 is higher than at any other time since i860. R EC EIPTS AN D SH IPM ENTS OF IM PO R TA N T COM M ODITIES A T CHICAGO (ooo’s Omitted) R E C E IP T S S H IP M E N T S FEBR U A RY JANUARY 1921 1920 1921 1920 1921 1920 1921 796 1,007 2,231 691 1,144 1,814 734 3 ,! 4 I 2 , 7 15 3,645 479 802 1,415 7,056 4,200 3,590 3,903 5,776 57 i 670 427 Corn.................. .. Bushels............. O ats.................. .. Bushels............. R y e ................... . .Bushels............. I3.657 7,759 i , i 93 21,606 3.874 6,841 5,806 367 710 B arley............... . .Bushels............. 483 968 Cured M eats... Fresh M eats... . .Pounds.............. 3.575 6,599 62,723 82,284 L a rd .................. . .Pounds.............. Cheese.............. . .Pounds.............. 18,594 11,760 13,670 12,311 B u tter.............. . .Pounds.............. E g g s . . . . . ........ . .C ases................. 15,412 M 34 "4 F lour................ . .B arrels.............. W heat.............. . .B ushels............. JANUARY COO r» FE B R U A R Y 1,192 1920 8,124 5,166 3,304 424 7,297 754 234 605 952 1,000 465 370 3 ,W 9 53,786 10,547 103,469 79,932 136,482 101,022 60,093 130,472 125,967 277,562 10,422 20,757 53,752 199,337 49,376 35 ,6oi 72,477 11,601 9,666 32,780 8,756 21,032 16,370 13,564 15,888 17,267 16,817 45,256 18,077 28,495 234 166 62 58 i 45 117 Potatoes........... . .Bushels............. 1,006 1,128 918 1,132 18,007 183 291 334 275 173 313 20,373 22,922 16,855 23,720 5,214 2,674 81 3,094 4 ,3 7 i 71 H ides................ 8,318 18,492 W ool................. 259 1,114 8,955 454 Lum ber............ . .Thousand feet 123 235 108 i ,957 208 55 48 803 FOREIGN PR ICE T R E N D AS R E F L E C T E D B Y IN D E X NUM BERS The trends of prices in foreign countries as com pared with the United States are seen from the ac companying chart. To secure uniform comparison, most of the Index Numbers have been placed on a 1913 base, introducing an approximation in some cases. The index used for the United States was compiled on this base by the Federal Reserve Board from 90 quotations, weighted according to the importance of each commodity. In the chart to the left, the United Kingdom is represented by the heavy line, Ita ly by the lighter line, France by the dotted line, and the United States, by months only, is shown by a dot and dash line, while in the chart to the right Australia is represented by a heavy line, Sweden b y a lighter line, Canada by a dot and dash line, Tokyo by a dotted line, and Calcutta is show in months only, by a dot and dash line. D ata for this United States index and that o f Calcutta were not compiled previous to 1920 and therefore are not shown by years. Foreign indices were taken by the Federal Reserve Board from the following sources: United Kingdom, “ Statist” (45 commodities); France, “ Bulletin de la Statistique Generale” (45 commodities); Italy, Prof. Bachi (40 commodities); Sweden, “ Svensk Handelstidning” (47 quotations); Japan, Bank o f Japan for Tokyo (56 commodities); Australia, Commonwealth Bureau Census and Statistics (92 commodities); Canada, Depart ment o f Labor (272 quotations); Calcutta, India, Department o f Statistics (75 commodities). SELECTED M EM BE R BA N K STATISTICS SEVENTH DISTRICT (ooo’s Omitted) C H IC A G O Number o f Banks Reporting.................... Loans and Discounts (exclusive o f re discounts) (a) Secured by U. S. G ovt, obliga tions ................................................... (b) Secured by stocks and bonds, other than U . S. Bonds................. (c) All other.......................................... Investments: (a) U. S. Bonds.................................... (b) U. S. V ictory N otes...................... (c) U . S. Certificates o f Indebtedness (d) Other Bonds, Stocks and Securi ties ......................................................... Reserve balances with F. R . B an k .......... Cash in v au lt............................................... Deposits: N et Dem and............................................ T im e.......................................................... Governm ent............................................. D E T R O IT O T H E R S E L E C T E D C IT IE S M AR . I I , FEB. I I , JAN. 14 , M AR . I I , FEB. I I , JAN . 14 , M AR . I I , FEB. I I , JAN. I 4 19 2 1 19 2 1 1921 192 1 19 2 1 I9 2 I I9 2 I 192 1 192 1 52 52 52 x3 5X,373 4 8 ,0 9 0 4 7 ,2 0 6 7,244 3 2 3 ,4 XX 739^76 3 1 8 ,5 6 2 3 2 5 ,2 8 9 6 1 ,8 0 7 6 2 ,1 7 1 6 3 ,1 6 5 6 0 ,4 4 7 6 0 ,1 5 2 5 8 ,7 9 8 7 3 6 ,3 6 2 7 2 4 ,8 5 1 1 9 1 ,8 6 4 1 9 4 ,6 5 0 2 0 2 ,8 1 9 2 5 4 ,6 3 9 2 5 6 ,7 4 0 2 5 9 ,7 9 2 1 9 ,2 8 2 1 9 ,0 3 2 1 6 ,5 3 8 2 2 ,7 1 6 2 3 ,2 1 2 2 6 ,7 1 1 I2,QQO 35 , 9 X8 35 , 39 x 35,803 1 2 ,8 6 7 1 2 ,8 9 9 1 5 ,0 1 9 1 5 ,0 4 4 1 5 ,0 2 5 6 ,1 6 6 6 ,0 8 1 6 ,0 6 7 8,599 8 ,6 4 8 8 ,2 5 5 1 1 ,3 6 6 x , 2 77 x 1 1 ,2 0 7 7,998 6 ,9 8 8 6 ,5 8 1 1 4 4 ,0 5 1 13 8 ,8 0 3 1 3 7 ,6 3 7 1 1 9 ,4 2 3 1 1 9 ,6 6 5 1 2 0 ,1 3 4 4 6 ,4 2 1 1 3 4 ,4 3 0 3 1 ,1 6 0 1 3 4 ,7 4 1 2 4 ,3 8 5 8 ,6 0 5 2 4 ,8 3 2 2 3 ,0 1 6 2 7 ,8 4 5 8 ,8 2 3 4 73o 45,453 27,553 x 3,992 44,657 29,533 8 ,0 0 0 935,793 9 3 4 ,2 9 7 9 3 5 ,8 8 5 x 73 , 1 6 4 1 6 6 ,2 5 2 17 6 ,3 1 1 2 2 9 ,2 4 7 2 3 4 ,2 8 1 2 2 8 ,0 3 9 3 io ,337 3 i o, I29 3 0 8 ,6 6 3 2 1 7 ,8 4 5 2 2 0 ,2 7 4 2 2 3 ,5 2 0 1 3 0 ,1 8 9 1 3 0 ,4 4 0 1 3 0 ,1 2 7 2 ,1 8 6 2,396 3»x46 1 ,2 0 0 1,8 5 6 93 x x,443 x,398 1 ,0 4 1 I 33 , 4 i 8 32,705 3 6 ,0 1 5 x3 7 ,1 0 2 X3 7,340 x» 49 x 3,x57 x , x 5° 5° 3,°77 12,450 1 6 ,0 0 0
@FedFRASER