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HEIN TV k RESERVE B15TEICT iLiD V olum e 6, N um ber 12 C h ic a g o , D e c e m b e r 1, 1923 P ublished M onthly BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN THE UNITED STATES Production of basic commodities, and retail trade increased during October, and the volume of freight shipments and wholesale trade continued large. The level of wholesale prices and the volume of em ployment showed but little change. P R O D U C T I O N — The Federal Reserve Board’s index of production in basic industries advanced 3 per cent in October, after having declined for four months. The increase for the month, while due in part to the resumption of anthracite coal mining, also reflected increases in textiles, lumber, and sugar, and most other industries included in the index. Employment at industrial establishments showed practically no change between September and October. Contract awards for new buildings increased throughout the country considerably more than is usual at this season, and were 25 per cent larger than in September. Residential projects formed a IN D E X O F P R O D U C T IO N IN B A S IC IN D U S T R IE S Combination of 22 Individual Series Corrected for Seasonal Variation PB ctirr 10 4 iO \ /V O nqt * Crop estimates by the Department of Agriculture on November 1 indicated a substantial reduction from the September forecast in the yield of cotton, but larger yields of corn, potatoes, and apples. T R A D E ! — Heavy movement of miscellaneous merchandise and live-stock resulted in October in the largest railroad shipments of any month on record. Wholesale trade was 12 per cent larger than a year ago and sales in all leading lines except shoes showed increases. Department store sales were 13 per cent larger than last October and sales of mail order houses were the largest of any month since 1919. P R IC E S — Wholesale prices declined less than one per cent in October, according to the index of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and stood approxi mately at the level of a year ago. The principal changes for the month were declines in the prices B A N K C R E D IT 800 Member Banks in Leading Cities B A N K C R E D IT A ll Federal Reserve Banks Latest figures November 14, 1923: Loans and Discounts 11,930 m illion; Investments 4,490 m illion; Demand Deposits 11,276 m illion; Time D e posits 4,029 million. Federal Reserve Notes 2,223 million; Earning Assets 1,104 million. -«>°_____________ r f\ V \ s 80 P R IC E S — IN D E X N U M B E R OF W H O L E S A L E P R IC E S U . S. Bureau of Labor Statistics larger proportion of the total than in any earlier month of the year. V N1 60 40 20 0 m t$20 I92t 1922 1923 Latest figure October, 1923: 117. Labor Statistics. Latest figure October, 1923: 153. C o m p il e d N ovem ber 27, 1923 of fuel, clothing, metals, and animal products, while whole sale prices of crops, particularly cotton, increased. During the first half of November the prices of wheat, hogs, pigiron, and hides receded, and prices of cotton and cotton goods, cement, and copper advanced. BANK CREDIT— Since the middle of October there has been a slight decline in demand for credit for commer cial and agricultural purposes at member banks in lead ing cities. Considerable decreases in borrowing for these purposes in the New York and Chicago districts were par tially offset by increases in other districts. Loans secured by stocks and bonds increased somewhat, while investments continued to decline and reached the low point for the year. The total member bank accommodation at Federal Re serve banks declined between October 17 and November 21, and on the latter date was the lowest since the middle of the year. The total volume of Federal Reserve bank credit outstanding, however, remained relatively constant because of increased purchases of bills in the open market. The volume of Federal Reserve note circulation declined by about $50,000,000 during the period, while other forms of money in circulation increased. Money rates showed an easier tendency, and during the early part of November the open market rate on commer-. cial paper in New York declined from 5-5J4 to 5 per cent. BUSINESS CONDITIONS IN THE SEVENTH RESERVE DISTRICT U SIN ESS in the Middle W est presents much the same aspect as a month ago— in general, a substantial vol ume of activity, easily maintained under favorable credit conditions, but conservatively controlled. B Here and there, however, slowing down tendencies have developed, such as the decided drop in coal production dur ing October and the falling off in steel and iron output. Industrial employment, on the other hand, is still gen erally at a high level, and together with the remarkably heavy building operations and the improved agricultural conditions, sustains an extensive purchasing power which finds reflection in the large demand for finished goods. CREDIT AND FINANCE While there are no indications that the general attitude of caution has diminished perceptibly, the general trend of business shows a healthy direction. The peak of the sea sonal expansion of credit apparently was passed during October. This would seem to indicate that while the vol ume of business, considering all lines, has not shown the percentage of recovery usual during the autumn months, fundamental factors rest on a solid foundation so far as the immediate future is concerned and that credit condi tions are such as not to retard a reasonable stimulation of retail sales by seasonable weather. The commercial credit requirements expanded somewhat in October as compared with September, but taking the district as a whole, there has not been much change in the general credit situation. Banks in the country sections are borrowing somewhat more freely to meet the demands of their customers. This has not developed, however, into a pronounced upward trend in bank loans. Thus far the earlier marketing of hogs has not contrib uted toward any considerable liquidation of obligations by farmers. As a result of the early marketing movement, the average weight of hogs marketed was less than a year ago, and the larger receipts resulted in lower prices. These two factors curtailed the aggregate proceeds which the farmer had expected to realize on his autumn marketing. This, together with the slow marketing of wheat, may explain in Page 2 December part the comparatively small liquidation of indebtedness at the banks in the strictly agricultural sections at this time. Building operations, according to reports from some parts of the district, are responsible for a considerable portion of the demand for commercial credit. A s has been the case throughout the autumn months, however, all legitimate credit needs are being amply met and bankers generally are continuing along conservative lines. ’ General business conditions in the agricultural sections of the district are undoubtedly better than a year ago and have shown steady but slow improvement during the autumn months. Industrial and commercial borrowers, however, are using a volume of credit slightly less than normal for this season of the year. Commercial Paper— Sales of commercial paper in O cto ber exceeded those in September by 22.9 per cent, and in creased 25.8 per cent over October, 1922. Demand was reported as generally fair to good. A restricted supply was encountered by practically all reporting dealers, rates, however, remaining stationary at 5J4 per cent. Acceptances— Execution of a markedly larger volume of acceptances in October as compared with September was indicated in summaries received from twenty-six reporting banks. Although two banks reported decreases, and twelve no transactions, the aggregate increase over Sep tember was 56.8 per cent. A pronounced increase in the volume of bills sold and held was also evidenced. A greatly heightened volume of bills bought was shown, largely the result of the purchases by one bank. A re duction of 8.7 per cent in the liability of the banks as acceptors took place, as well as a falling off in the hold ings of their own acceptances. Purchases of bankers’ acceptances by the Federal Re serve Bank decreased from 27 million in September to 22 million in October. Sales from holdings amounted to $5,000. Holdings on October 31 totaled 37 million. Considerable increases in the aggregate and average weekly volume of bills purchased in the five-week period ended November 14, as compared with that of the previous four-week period, were reported by six bill dealers sup plying data to this bank. Sales decreased, however, both in aggregate and weekly averages. Bills held at the close of the period were $7,637,584, which compares with $6,153,661 at the close of the previous four-week period. Rates remained stationary and short maturities were in best demand. An increase of 20.9 per cent in the number of business failures in the Seventh district was reported in October, but the aggregate of liabilities involved shrank 23 per cent from September. In that month the increase over August in number had been 2.4 per cent and 0.9 per cent in liabilities. For the country as a whole the number of business casualties rose 36.4 per cent above September, and liabilities 176.3 per cent. In September as compared with August both number and liabilities declined, the former by 7.1 per cent and the latter by 16.4 per cent. AGRICULTURAL FINANCING Twenty Joint Stock Land banks report loans outstand ing in the five states lying largely in this district on October 31, of $140,418,427, approximately 2 million above the total on September 30, which is about the same rate of increase shown each month since June. Loans out standing of four Federal Land banks in the same territory increased about 2 million above September 30, the total on October 31 being $119,542,190. Federal Intermediate Credit banks, while operating less extensively in this area than Federal Land or Joint Stock Land banks, showed aggregate loans outstanding on O c tober 31 as $271,566, an increase of about 84 thousand over September 30. MEMBER BANKS IN T H E DISTRICT Aggregate loans and discounts o f Chicago and Detroit reporting member banks declined slightly after October 17, reflecting a lessening of the seasonal demand, but were nevertheless well above September volume throughout the month and moved upward on November 7. On November 14, however, the movement was again downward. In other selected cities scattered through the district, re porting member banks showed a slight downward trend in volume of loans and discounts. Holdings of Government securities by Chicago reporting banks tended downward with slight fluctuation, while “ other” investments expanded somewhat. In Detroit similar movements in security holdings by reporting banks took place, though the upward trend of “ other” securities was less marked than that shown in Chicago. A slight downward tendency manifested itself in other selected cities in Government as well as “ other” security holdings until November 14, when the latter showed an upward movement. Net demand deposits of Chicago reporting member banks fluctuated extensively but increased to 1,003 million on November 7, over 20 million above the October 10 figure. On November 14 still further expansion took place. In Detroit net demand deposits moved generally downward, but on November 14 a reversal of this trend was manifest, as was the case in other selected cities, P O S I T I O N R E P O R T I N G M E M B E R B A N K S , 7th D I S T R I C T Distribution by states of the loans of these three classes of banks is shown in the accompanying tabulation: J o in t S t o c k L and B ank s F ederal L and B ank s Number of banks......... ............ 20 Illinois ..................................... $ 38,808,797 Iowa ....................................... 70,060,045 Indiana ................................... 26,425,085 Wisconsin .......................... ..... 4,026,800 Michigan .................. ............... 1,097,700 4 $ 18,830,640 39,931,550 25,998,800 19,846,600 14,934,600 I n te r m e d ia t e C r e d it B a n k s 3 $178,358 38,672 ............. 54,536 ............. $140,418,427 $119,542,190 $271,566 Several issues of Joint Stock Land Bank Farm Loan bonds have been offered since October 1. Tw o Chicago institutions, the Chicago Joint Stock and the First-Trust Joint Stock, each offered $2,000,000 Farm Loan bonds, the former at 5 per cent to yield over 4.77 per cent to 1933 and 5 per cent thereafter; the second at 4 per cent. These were quickly taken, banks and general investing public alike exhibiting considerable interest. A $10,000,000 block of Federal Intermediate Credit Bank 4V* per cent six-month notes likewise found purchasers without great difficulty, though reports indicate banks were the heaviest buyers. Several Joint Stock Land banks, for the most part in Southern States, offered a total of $4,000,000 in Farm Loan bonds on about the same terms as the issues of the Chicago Joint Stock Land banks mentioned above. Page 3 December though less marked. Government deposits in Chicago and Detroit, as well as those in other selected cities, shrank markedly. POSITION OF T H E FEDERAL RESERVE BANK cent o v e r September, and in the twenty smaller centers 10.0 per cent. In October, 1922, the increase over Sep tember o f that year was 9.4| per cent in the four larger centers and 6.5 per cent in the twenty smaller cities re porting debits. Loans to member banks by the Federal Reserve bank of Chicago fluctuated with an upward seasonal trend dur ing October, and on October 31 totaled $118,527,000, the high point for 1923, being more than 6 million above the previous high mark on April 4. On November 7 loans declined to 105 million and on November 14 to 8 2 million. This drop was almost entirely the result of heavy repay ment to the Reserve bank by large banks in Chicago and Detroit, and not a reflection of any decline in loans to members in agricultural sections of the district. Total reserves moved steadily downward during October but showed upward movements November 7 and 14. V O LU M E OF P A Y M E N T BY C H E C K Checks Drawn on Clearing House Banks, 7th District Total earning assets, while exhibiting much fluctuation from, week to week during October, amounted to $165,283,000 on October 31, compared with $153,153,000 on O c tober 3. In the first two weeks of November, however, con siderable declines in earning assets were shown, reflecting lessened volume in discounting operations for member banks. Federal Reserve notes, following a steady down ward movement after October 10, showed a slightly higher level on November 7 than on October 31. This advance, however, was followed by a drop on November 14. PO S ITIO N F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF C H IC A G O Figures used are estimates for calendar months based on weekly reports to this bank. Latest figures shown, October, 1923, in thousands of dollars: Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, and Indianapolis, 4,054,619; 20 other clearing house centers, 664,650. SAVINGS ACCOUNTS AND DEPOSITS Savings deposits throughout the district on November 1 were seasonally more than on October 1, while the gain over a year ago indicates a slight reduction in the spread between this year and last. Reports received from' banks representing approximately 40 per cent o f the sav ings deposits in the district show an increase o f 0.8 per cent over the preceding month and 10.7 per cent over IN D E X N U M B E R O F S AV IN GS PER CENT 130 120 110 100 Latest figures shown, November 14, 1923, in thousands of dol lars: Federal reserve notes, 404,136; total earning assets. 131,816. DEBITS TO IN D IVID U AL ACCOUNTS The volume of payment by check in October as reported by clearing house banks in the Seventh district showed an increase of 10.7 per cent over September. This gain is doubtless the reflection of seasonal increases in many lines of business, as well as of the greater number of business days in October than in September. Debits to individual accounts in the four larger cities, i.e., Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit, and Indianapolis, increased 10.8 per Page 4 December M O N TH LY A V E M 6 E 1 9 2 0 = 1 0 0 90 80 AYERAG £ PE R CEN T 130 120 1 10 r100 90 80 ACCOUNT 70 70 60 50 60 50 40 30 20 40 30 20 10 0 10 1919 < 1921 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 II IIIIIHIIII 192.0 192.2. 1923 Based on reports to this bank as of the first of each month from 208 banks in the Seventh district. Latest figures shown, Novem ber 1, 1923: savings deposits, 116.7; average account, 96.6. November 1 last year. The average account of these banks decreased slightly during the month, but was 1.9 per cent larger than a year ago. BONDS AND INVESTM ENTS Corporate financing of unusually large proportions was the outstanding feature of the investment market for the latter part of October! and the early part of November. The most important in this field was the $100,000,000 American Telephone and Telegraph Company twentyyear 5J4 per cent Debenture bonds, which were doubly oversubscribed by noon of the day of the offering. This was the largest individual financing since the Anaconda Copper operations last January. W hile there has been no marked change in prices, the demand for securities is greatly improved. The dissolution of many o f the old syndicates and the subsequent decline in prices made it possible for dealers to clear their shelves o f these issues before they became stagnant; and this in turn has made investors more optimistic in purchasing new underwrit ings, as they were not confronted with a substantial loss on their bonds after syndicates were dissolved. Public utility bonds are still in greatest demand, many investors showing a preference for this type over in dustrials; railroad and equipment bonds experienced a good demand; and tax-exempts continued to be readily absorbed. In the real estate bond market, a considerable improvement is reported for October over September. The principal feature in the Middle W est in this market was the $9,000,000 financing of the Book-Cadillac Hotel in Detroit. AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION A N D CONDITIONS Reports from agents show that 157,340 farmers in 136 counties of the Seventh district had 1.3 per cent fewer hogs on November 1, 1923, than a year ago. Although practically no change is shown in the number of hogs on farms in Iowa, reductions of approximately 4Yz per cent from November 1, 1922, were reported in Illinois and Indiana, but in Wisconsin and Michigan the holdings were about 2y2 per cent greater. These reports also indicate that hogs are being marketed earlier and with less corn finish this fall than usual. H o g cholera has appeared in a few counties of the corn belt. The Government has issued warning that the disease will be increasingly prevalent this fall. Preliminary husking returns show that in 1923 the corn crop yield was less per acre in Iowa and Wisconsin but more in Indiana, Illinois, and Michigan than a year ago. A total production of 963,972,000 bushels in the Seventh district compared with 984,328,000 bushels in 1922 is fore cast by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics. Many of the county agents report that the quality of the crop was lowered because of frosts. The yield of potatoes was smaller per acre in Wisconsin and Iowa this year than in 1922, but the average yield increased in Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan according to final returns. This together with a reduction in acreage in 1923 resulted in a district production of 71,512,000 bushels which is about 13 per cent less than a year ago. Tobacco production in the Seventh district amounted to 51.264.000 pounds in 1923, approximately 8 per cent greater than in 1922, but the quality was affected some by frosts. The total production in the United States was 1,436,738,000 pounds compared with a crop of 1,324,840,000 pounds last year. County agents report the growing wheat as going into the winter in good condition. According to November 1 forecasts by the Bureau o f Agricultural Economics, 3,029,192,000 bushels of corn and 416.722.000 bushels of potatoes were grown in the United States this year compared with 2,890,712,000 and 451,185,000 bushels, the respective crops in 1922. GRAIN M ARKETING Oat receipts and shipments at primary markets in creased, but the movement of corn and wheat was in smaller total volume during October than in either the previous month or the corresponding period in 1921 or 1922. October exports were less than those in September. Prices of grain averaged higher at Chicago during October than in the previous month. UNITED STATES VISIBLE SUPPLY OF GRAIN Stocks in public and private warehouses, at principal points of accu mulation, at lake and seaboard points, and in transit by water in the United States. Figures supplied by the Secretary of the Chicago B oa rd In thousands of bushels W heat November 10, 1923 Warehouses and Afloat.......... ...... 71,445 . ...... 11,628 Bonded ............... . October 13, 1923 Warehouses and Afloat........ ...... 65,840 Bonded ............... ...... 4,726 November 13, 1922 Warehouses and Afloat........ ...... 34,230 B o n d e d .................. ...... 14,955 C oen O ats R ye B arley 1,044 20,272 584 17,372 1.570 3,791 368 1,060 18,032 377 15,580 1,254 3,277 618 9,187 33,827 1,189 10,618 1,467 2,798 1,248 The total United States, Canadian, and British visible wheat supply was 214,216,000 bushels on November 3, 1923, compared with 149,446,000 bushels on September 29, 1923, and 172,796,000 bushels on November 4, 1922. FLOUR Total October output o f thirty-nine flour mills in this district increased 12.3 per cent over September, but despite this increase the operating ratio showed very little change from September, largely because there were three more working days in October. During the month the mills operated at an average of 61.0 per cent of capacity com pared with 61.1 per cent in September and 59.3 per cent in October, 1922. The last ratio is on a basis of twenty-six working days which is one less than in the same month this year. Compared with a year ago production increased 6.8 per cent. Flour other than wheat produced during October, according to figures reported by nine mills, Page 5 December showed little change from September; compared with a year* ago there was an increase in production of 3.7 per cent. Although stocks of flour held at mills were 18.3 per cent larger on October 31 than on September 30, they were 16.0 per cent less than a year ago. Wheat stocks on O c tober 31 were 5.0 per cent larger than on September 30 and 7.7 per cent larger than on October 31, 1922. Sales showed further decreases in October compared with September, of 14.6 per cent in volume and 2.4 per cent in value; compared with a year ago decreases of 17.0 per cent in both volume and value were in evidence. M OVEM EN T OF LIVE STOCK Live stock slaughter was seasonally greater in volume in October than in September, and in excess of October last year. A larger number of cattle, hogs, sheep, and calves were received at public stock yards during October than in the previous month. As a result o f corn prices, the period for heavy marketing o f hogs seems to have arrived earlier than usual this fall, receipts in October and the early part of November being considerably in advance of those for the corresponding period of 1921 or 1922. There was a seasonal decline in the price of live hogs in N o vember. LIVE STOCK SLAUGHTER C attle Eight yards in district, October, 1923— ------- ------Public stock yards in U. S., October, 1923-------------------October, 1922-------October, 1921. H ogs S heep C alves ..284,902 1,095,013 322,498 3,128,998 2,275,930 2,361,560 1,992,051 980,549 893,852 1,066,897 1,340,562 441,761 340,945 412,011 335,845 The October shipment of sheep, cattle, and calves back to the farms for feeding was greater than in September. The Bureau o f Agricultural Economics, on November 2, reported that a smaller number of feeding cattle were shipped from the twelve leading markets into the seven corn belt states during the four months ended November 1, 1923, than a year ago, although the number was larger than for the corresponding months of 1921 or 1920. The report also shows that for the same four months this fall about 20 per cent fewer cattle were taken into Iowa than a year ago, but increases were reported for Illinois and Indiana. AVERAGE PRICES OF LIVE STOCK Per hundred pounds at Chicago W e e k ended M o n t h s of Nov. 10, O ctober S e p t e m b e r O ctober Class Calves 1923 ....... $ ........ ...... ' 5.25 ......... 2.75 ................ ..... ................. ......... 9.00 ..... 6.10 ...... .. 7.03 ......... 10.25 ......... 6.20 ......... 12.60 1923 $10.15 5.45 2.85 11.10 6.00 7.45 9.90 6.45 12.95 1923 $10.20 5.75 3.00 12.10 6.45 8.30 10.50 7.10 13.25 1922 $10.65 5.35 3.10 10.55 6.70 8.85 11.50 6.40 13.80 M EAT PACKING Production of packing house products was greater in October than in any previous month o f 1923, but the out put moved rapidly into consuming channels and the broad distribution resulted in smaller inventories of edible prod Page 6 December In October, there was good Continental demand for straight shipments of pork products, while sales of hog fats such as fat backs and lard from spot stocks on the Continent also continued in large volume. Because of this demand, consignment stockfs already abroad were re ported less on November 1 than a month ago. Present Continental prices are on a parity with those realized in the United States. The recent buying of hams for Christ mas trade in England gave a better tone to British markets and tended to bring prices o f that product to a more satisfactory basis in the United Kingdom than at the be ginning of October. Direct reports from exporting com panies in the United States show that the total volume of meats and lard forwarded by them for export was nearly as great in October as in the previous month. 113,305 ..931,380 ..763,166 ..887,034 ..746,052 ucts in the United States on November 1 than a month ago. Employment also increased slightly. Reports from fifty-nine meat packing companies in the United States show October sales in dollars 2.7 per cent more than in September, 1923, and 8.2 per cent greater than in October last year. The Chicago wholesale prices of fat backs, picnics, and lard were firmer; beef prices were practically unchanged and most of the other meats were lower in October than in September. The trend of prices con tinued downward in early November; however, those for picnics, fat backs, lard, lamb, and dry salt bellies showed a firmer tendency than in the closing weeks of October. DAIRY PRODUCTS AND POULTRY The production of dairy products declined in October compared with September. Representative creameries in the Seventh district produced 14.6 per cent less butter than in September, 1923, but 6.2 per cent more than in October, 1922. The October output in the United States was reported smaller than that in the previous month, but was greater than a year ago according to statistics issued by the American Association of Creamery Butter Manu facturers. Wisconsin factories turned out slightly less cheese in October than in the previous month, but the make was greater than in October last year. A larger volume of dairy products was received at Chi cago during October than a year ago. Compared with totals for September, receipts of butter and eggs declined, but those of cheese and poultry increased. The sales of creamery butter reported for October by representative companies in the district were 1.9 per cent less than in the previous month, but were 7.7 per cent more than in O c tober, 1922. Although cold storage holdings of poultry were larger, the stocks of butter, cheese, and eggs in the United States were smaller on, November 1, 1923, than on October 1, 1923. Increases over a year ago were shown in total hold ings of dairy products and poultry. Average prices dur ing October of butter, eggs, geese, and turkeys at whole sale were higher, but those of cheese, chickens, fowls, and ducks were slightly lower in the Chicago market than in September. INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYMENT CONDITIONS An increase in employment at manufacturing plants of the district during October offset the slight decline ex perienced the previous month. Increases of about one per cent in men, 2 per cent in total hours worked, and of over 4 per cent in payrolls were reported to this bank bjr 296 manufacturing concerns representing an aggregate employment of 211,000 men. As reported by these con cerns, employment has been at practically a uniform level since early last spring, the fluctuations covering a range of not more than 2.5 per cent. At the close of October, the volume of employment was less than one-half of one per cent below that of June, the high point of the year. The iron and steel mills of the district showed a gain of 0.7 per cent in working forces during the month, while man-hours of work fell off 2 per cent. The trend in em ployment in these mills has been continuously upward during the past eight months, the total increase amounting to over 17 per cent; the advance since October, 1922, has been approximately 26 per cent. The iron and steel in dustry as a whole, including the finished products, has been declining since early August, the total drop amounting to 3 per cent. For agricultural machinery alone there has been a decline of 25 per cent since early April. Non-ferrous metals, which increased during the first six months of the year, are now about 4 per cent below the June level, but still 28 per cent ahead of the volume of a year ago. A steady expansion has been going on this year in the manufacture of electrical goods, and employment in this industry for October was 11 per cent greater than a year ago. A gain of one per cent was made by lumber and millwork, partly recovering the loss of September, while musical instruments made a seasonal gain of 3.9 per cent. Other seasonal gains were those of food products in gen eral, the leather industry, boot and shoe manufacturing, and industries that are affected by the holiday trade, such as the manufacture of watches and jewelry. The main decreases in employment for the month were reported by railway equipment plants, railway repair shops, and by automobiles and accessories. A slight let-up also is noticeable at brick yards. The corn harvest and the logging camps have absorbed some of the surplus outdoor labor occasioned by the dis continuance of work on state and county highways. A c cording to the report of the Northern Hemlock and Hard wood Manufacturers’ Association, firms representing about 27 per cent o f the log input estimated for the winter, have now on hand 85 per cent of their labor requirements. This compares favorably with; conditions of a year ago when less than 60 per cent of the required men were on hand. The ratio of applicants to places available at the free em ployment offices of Illinois, however, has shown a decided increase, rising from 106.2 per cent in September to 117.5 in October. FUEL AND POWER PRODUCTION COAL A drop to approximately the level maintained before the anthracite strike was shown in October when weekly pro duction of bituminous coal in the United States ranged from 10,694,000 tons to 10,953,000 tons compared with a weekly average of over 11,000,000 tons in September. While there were a number of mines which suspended operation during October, partly in an effort to curtail production on account of the lack of demand for coal, this development did not seriously affect the October production of bituminous coal in the Illinois field. The suspension of operation, which in some cases was for short periods, pre vailed chiefly in those mines having a higher production cost. In Illinois 6,571,350 tons of coal were mined during October, and although this represents an increase of 5.1 per cent in production over September, the expansion is less than half the increases reported for each of the two pre ceding months. Anthracite mining in the United States during October continued at a weekly rate of over 2,000,000 tons, the level reached during the week ended September 29. Total O c tober production amounted to 8,724,000 tons compared with 2,917,000 tons in September. Weather conditions continue to be the chief factor in local markets. Practically no contract orders are being placed and demand in the spot market is very slow, showing only slight spurts of activity at each drop in temperature. Prices, accordingly, show little change, though a firming tendency was in evidence on the cooler days. The fine coal market has strengthened a little, as buying in these sizes is keeping fair pace with production. The light demand for Pocahontas caused further recessions in the price of mine-run which is now quoted at $1.75@$2.50. Anthracite is in steady demand, domestic sizes retailing at $17.00 in Chicago. For the week ended November 5, the average spot price of bituminous coals, as compiled by Coal Age, was $2.21, a new low level for the year, and a drop of 28 cents since the week ended September 10 which was the first full week of the anthracite strike. ELECTRIC ENERGY Seasonally increased production was indicated by the October reports of eight central station companies in the district reporting to this bank. Average daily production was 8.6 per cent greater than in September. The aggregate monthly output of these plants was 560,808,864 K.W .H ., an increase o f 12.3 per cent over September and 16.7 per cent over October, 1922. The load factor increased slightly, being 54.9 per cent in October compared with 54.1 per cent Page 7 December in September. It was 55.9 per cent in October, 1922. The peak load demand was 81.7 per cent of plant capacity in October, compared with 77.9 per cent in September, and 74.7 per cent in October, 1922. Aggregate sales to industrial users were 3.2 per cent greater than in September, and 19.4 per cent over October, 1922. The daily average, based on the actual number of working days, however, was 8.3 per cent less as compared with September, and 15.0 per cent greater than in October, 1922. MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES AND OUTPUT AU TO M O BILE PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION An increase of 11.5 per cent over September took place in combined passenger car and truck production during O c tober. This gain is the result o f the larger number of days in October, as the daily average production during the month was slightly lower than in September. A gain of 53.4 per cent was made over October of last year when the rate of increase over September amounted to 15.0 per cent. Manufacturers, reporting through the National Auto mobile Chamber of Commerce and direct to this bank, representing practically complete September production, built 334,244 passenger cars in October compared with 298,600 in September, a gain of 11.9 per cent. The October output of trucks advanced 6.5 per cent for identical com panies producing 29,638 trucks compared with 27,841 in September. The volume of wholesale distribution of automobiles during October declined compared with September, but comparisons with October a year ago indicate an increase in the number and value of cars sold at wholesale. Retail sales in October were greater than those in the previous month and in October, 1922, in number and value. New cars on hand at the end of October considerably exceeded the number on September 30 as well as on October 31, 1922. Sales of used cars increased over the preceding month and the corresponding month of last year. The number and value of salable used cars held by reporting dealers were equal to 122 per cent of the October used car sales. DISTRIBUTION OF AUTOMOBILES Changes in October, 1923, from previous months P er c e n t c h a n g e from S e p t . 1923 O c t . 1922 Number of new cars sold W holesale....... .............. — 12.1 Retail _________ ______ + 5.7 Value of new cars sold Wholesale ................... — 15.6 Retail .............. - ........... + 9.6 New cars on hand at end of month Number ............ ....... + 26.8 Value ........... ............ + 21.0 Number of used cars sold + 3.6 Salable used cars on hand at end of month Number ................... + 16.6 Value .... ................... +15.1 C o m p a n ie s in c l u d e d S e p t . 1923 O c t . 1922 +13.4 +17.7 44 77 34 56 +16.8 +16.4 44 77 34 56 +11.7 — 7.1 + 3.9 71 71 78 43 43 55 +24.5 +24.0 70 70 42 42 Carload shipments of automobiles reported by the Na tional Automobile Chamber of Commerce increased con siderably with a corresponding seasonal decrease in driveaways and boat shipments. Exports of passenger cars from the United States during September increased markedly in number and value from August, while the number and value of exported trucks Page 8 December declined. Further curtailment in the production of casings and inner tubes, which exceeded shipments during Sep tember, resulted in smaller inventories on September 30 than on August 31. IRON, STEEL, AND OTHER METALS A further decrease in the average daily production of pig iron took place in October, and another low point in average daily production for the year was reached. The drop, however, was less pronounced than in the previous three months. Total production was about one per cent greater than in September, owing to the one additional day in the month. Steel ingots in the aggregate also showed an increase, but on a daily average basis were slightly lower in October than in September. Eighteen pig iron furnaces were blown out during the month and eight blown in. Unfilled orders showed about the same decrease in October as in September from preceding months. Bookings in the Chicago district were larger than in September, being nearly equal to shipments, but are not sufficient in volume to keep pace with the present rate of production, resulting in some curtailment of steel pro duction in the early part of November. A fair volume of buying by railroads is reported, but outside of these bookings, new orders are largely confined to nearby de liveries. In general, inventories of iron and steel at mills in the district were low. The composite of iron and steel prices in October continued downward but less exten sively than if steel prices, in their comparative firmness, had not compensated for the sharp decline in iron quota tions. Iron prices, however, have been firming the first half of November, particularly in the Chicago district. Figures compiled by the American Zinc Institute show production of slab zinc in October to be greater than in September, the figures for these two months being respectively 42,098 and 39,105 tons. October shipments decreased; the September total was 42,683 tons and that for October 39,204 tons. CASTINGS Consumption of iron and steel by twenty-seven reporting casting foundries was in greater volume in October than in September, and showed an increase over the average melt in the preceding nine months. An increase was like wise reported in shipments. CHANGES IN OCTOBER, 1923, FROM PREVIOUS MONTHS Compiled from direct reports to. this bank P er c e n t c h a n g e from C o m p a n ie s in c l u d e d S ept. Mo. Av. S e p t . Mo. Av. Pig iron consumed................... .. Iron scrap consumed............... .. Steel scrap consumed............... .. Total tonnage consumed......... .. Castings shipped (tonnage)....... Castings shipped (dollars)..... .. 1923 + 9.9 +16.2 + 9.9 +10.3 +19.5 +15.9 9 Mo. 1923 + 7.0 +24.9 — 2.4 + 0.6 + 12.2 + 19.0 1923 9 Mo. 19; 27 23 27 23 27 23 27 23 22 26 22 25 STOVES AND FURNACES The demand for stoves and furnaces in October, accord ing to reports to this bank from seventeen manufacturers in the district, showed nearly as large an increase over September as did that month over August. Shipments were substantially greater in October but the increase was less than that which took place in September as compared with August. A slight decrease in inventories as com pared with last month—but a large increase as compare4 with October, 1922— was indicated by the reports. Mould ing room operations increased slightly. CHANGES IN OCTOBER, 1923, FROM PREVIOUS MONTHS Compiled from direct reports to this bank P er c e n t c h a n g e from C o m p a n ie s in c l u d e d S e pt. O ct. S e pt. O ct. Shipments ............................. Orders accepted................... Inventories ........................... Operations (moulding room) 1923 +19.0 + 44.7 -—■ 8.3 + 6.4 1922 +27.6 + 39.9 + 38.6 + 15.8 1923 17 12 12 16 1922 17 12 12 16 Representative tanners in the district report October sales in greater total volume than those in September, but the reports indicate that in some of the companies the im provement has been reflected in a slight reduction in inventories rather than an immediate increase in produc tion. However, employment, hours worked, and total pay rolls for the period covered by the last pay-date in October were greater than the previous month. The Chicago market for green hides and skins was less active in October than in September and although a few tanners in the district bought more freely of raw material, in most instances purchases continue to be limited to immediate needs. A large volume o f packer green hides was sold at Chicago during the opening weeks o f Novem ber, but inquiry for country hides has been very limited. After November 1, the prices of country hides trended downward and other kinds were slightly easier than in October. AGRICULTURAL M ACHINERY AND EQUIPM ENT Reports from ninety-eight manufacturers in the United States to this bank show a decrease of 18.9 per cent in total domestic and foreign sales compared with September. This is the fourth consecutive month in which decreases have been shown. Domestic sales fell off 15.0 per cent, and foreign sales 31.3 per cent. The yearly comparable sales figures available from seventy-nine of these manufac turers for October, indicate an increase of 7.3 per cent in the aggregate sales over October, 1922; domestic sales in creased 6.7 per cent over last year, while sales abroad in creased 9.5 per cent. October sales were somewhat spotted and while the majority o f manufacturers reported de creases compared with the previous month, some showed substantial gains. Production during October as indicated by employment statistics was at a rate of 62.2 per cent of normal, compared with 62.0 per cent in September. SHOE MANUFACTURING, TANNING, AND HIDES While October production and shipments of shoes were seasonally greater than in September, according to reports submitted to this bank by manufacturers in the Seventh district, the fact that production was nearly on a par with the volume of current shipments resulted in a November 1 inventory about equivalent to that of a month ago. The reports also show that at the beginning of November, thirty of the reporting companies had stocks on hand equal to 61.4 per cent of their October shipments. The volume of unfilled orders reported for November was sufficient for six weeks’ business, based on the activity maintained during October. CHANGES IN OCTOBER, 1923, COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS MONTHS Based on pairs and compiled from direct reports to this bank P er c e n t c h a n g e from C o m p a n ie s in c l u d e d S ept. O ct. S ept. O ct. Production .......................... Shipments ............... ............. Inventories ......... .................. Unfilled orders............ „ ....... 1923 +18.6 + 1.5 + 4.8 + 3.0 1922 + 4.6 — 3.9 + 37.4 — 38.4 1923 34 34 30 24 1922 34 34 30 20 R A W W O O L AND FINISHED W O O LEN S The continued reshipping of bonded wools abroad has been a factor in causing the slight strengthening in local markets during October. Advances in prices ranging from 3 to 5 per cent reflect the increased demand for medium and lower grades during the month; asking prices for fine wool were firm, although demand was only fair. Most mills are continuing their policy of hand-to-mouth buying, with consignors unwilling to offer their wools at present prices. Manufacturers of ladies’ garments and novelties have been the heaviest purchasers during the month; man ufacturers of woolens for men’s clothing have also been buying more liberally, although for the most part only at rates lower than published prices. This slightly increased buying on the part of the latter mills may be attributed to the fact that in October orders for fall duplicates were received by men’s clothing manufacturers in a more satis factory volume than during the previous month, and that orders are beginning to come in for 1924 spring lines. FURNITURE Unlike the trend in the two preceding years, orders booked during October showed a slight decline from Sep tember, according to reports from fifteen furniture manu facturers in this district. Compared with a year ago, orders were 36.8 per cent less. Operations o f fourteen furniture plants averaged 88.9 per cent o f capacity compared with 85.9 per cent in September. Despite the reduction in orders in October, shipments increased 31.5 per cent over the previous month and 4.6 per cent over a year ago, leaving unfilled orders reported by eleven firms 23.1 per cent less than at the beginning o f the month and 49.3 per cent less than last year. Based on October shipments, these firms showed an average of about four weeks’ business on hand November 1. Collections were reported about on a par with September, but showing an improvement over a year ago. Page 9 December PAPER INDUSTRY According to the American Paper and Pulp Association report for October, most grades of paper were in better demand than during September, with the book and fine papers, however, showing the only marked increase. Large imports of kraft wrapping paper at prices below the Amer ican products caused a general depression in the wrapping paper business, and affected somewhat the whole paper market. October returns from fifteen paper and printing estab lishments in the district indicate no change since September in the number employed. Pay for overtime work, however, increased the payrolls to 4.9 above the previous month. As in August and September, employment was slightly be low last year, but payrolls continued higher. BUILDING MATERIAL AND CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITIES CEMENT Another high record for the production of cement was established during the month of October. Mills operated at capacity and shipments increased. In the rural districts the demand is still below normal. Reports indicate that larger dealers and contractors began to feel the seasonal decline in demand during the last few days of the month and that supplies were obtainable near at hand, thus eliminating freight charges on shipments from distant sources of supply. The report issued by the Geological Survey shows that for the entire country production increased 1.8 per cent over September. Stocks continued to decline but were 10.8 per cent greater than at the end of October last year. several inquiries. Industrial buyers who have been out of the market during the greater part of the summer are now obliged to buy in larger quantities, and while they are not placing many orders for future shipment, the present vol ume is satisfactory. At most yards stocks were reported as normal and in a few cases, above the average. The demand for Southern soft woods in parts o f the district has been light. Reports show that some smaller mills have come into the market with lower grades at reduced prices. This has had a tendency to depress the market in some localities on certain grades. Hemlock and Northern hardwoods have re mained steady owing to a good demand and a limited sup ply of the better grades in some markets. BRICK CONTRACTS AND PERMITS There has been an increase in the number of orders taken by the brick industry during October in many parts of the district, especially in the vicinity of larger cities. A few producers who had closed their plants with full yards reported that they expected to resume operations in the near future, stating that many orders were received during the latter part of the month and that stocks were being called for in large quantities. Face brick plants con tinue practically at capacity with orders about equal to production. In some rural sections, particularly in Iowa, however, there has been very little change in conditions and reports from dealers show that the demand is not up to normal. Many of the plants are closed and others are operating at reduced schedule. LUMBER Considerable improvement was shown in the lumber in dustry during the month of October. Although a few dealers reported less business than for September, many reported increases amounting in some instances to 30 per cent. Practically all reports show an increase over last year. Receipts of lumber at Chicago were 12.3 per cent over the previous month while shipments increased 9.3 per cent. Car companies are clearing up their orders and very few new ones are being placed, though there have been Contracts and permits continued their upward trend dur ing October. The total value of contracts awarded in the district amounted to $58,239,744, an increase of 14.5 per cent over September. The gain in residential construction amounted to 76.8 per cent and showed a greater gain than all others combined. Iowa was the only state showing a loss in residential construction, the decrease amounting to 16.2 per cent for the month. The greatest gain, 202.7 per cent was made in Michigan, while the increase for all types in the state was only 9.5 per cent. In Indiana and Illinois the percentage gain in residential construction was marked, while in Iowa and Wisconsin other construction showed large expansion. The total number of permits issued by fifty cities in the district increased 16.3 per cent above September and was 24.5 per cent over the same month last year. The estimated cost advanced 12.4 per cent and 59.9 per cent, respectively. O f the fifty cities there were thirty-seven that showed increases over the previous month and thir teen that showed decreases. For the five large cities the increase in the estimated value of permits was 14.8 per cent. Indianapolis, Detroit, and Milwaukee showed gains, while Des Moines showed a loss of 29.7 per cent and Chicago remained practically the same with a decrease of 0.1 per cent. MERCHANDISING CONDITIONS W H O L E SA LE TRADE Distribution of goods at wholesale during October varied for different commodities. In groceries, with over a third of the dealers reporting slower sales than in September, a spotted condition prevailed resembling that of October, Pagv 10 December 1921, and 1922. Dry goods firms also were divided in their comparisons with the preceding month, but the increases were confined to those firms whose September sales had fallen off from August, indicating a difference in the sea sonal trend rather than in the total volume of trade. Drug sales, as may be seen from the accompanying chart, reached a new level, several points above October, 1921, and 1922, the peak month in both years. In hardware and shoes, dealers with few exceptions reported expansion of business over September, averaging for the district more marked increases than last year. On the whole, despite unevenness among individual firms, the aggregate move ment of all goods was large, and well in excess of October, 1922. October 31 inventories were lower than at the beginning of the month for all reporting dry goods and drug firms, as well as for the large majority of shoe, hardware, and auto mobile accessory dealers. In groceries, on the other hand, twenty-two firms out of twenty-four were inventoried higher— the result in many cases of slackened October trade. Compared with a year ago stocks were heavier in all commodities except shoes and drugs, and for dry goods and groceries were larger in proportion to sales. As in previous months this year, accounts outstanding October 31 exceeded those of 1922 for most of the firms, with the shoe group, however, continuing below last year. Collections showed general improvement over the previous month and a year ago. W H O L E S A L E DRUG SALES Inventories October 31 for the district as a whole were practically the same as at the end of September; individ ually, however, a third of the firms had reduced their stocks during the month. Compared with October 31, 1922, stocks were heavier for all but nine firms. With two exceptions October collections were larger than in 1922, averaging a total increase of 20.0 per cent. Their ratio of 47.6 per cent to accounts outstanding at the beginning of the month compares with 46.5 per cent last year. CHAIN STORE TRADE Three grocery chain store systems reporting to this bank made new monthly sales records during October, with an average increase of 10 per cent over September, and of nearly 30 per cent over a year ago. Drug sales averaged an even more marked gain over October, 1922, but showed little change from September, 1923. In musical instruments, the gain over the previous month, larger than in 1922, reflects a later seasonal expansion this year than last. For all commodities of chain stores reporting to this bank, the aggregate increase over September was 11 per cent and over October, 1922, nearly 25 per cent—the latter, however, partly the result of additional branches, as aver age sales per store increased only 9 per cent. M AIL ORDER TRADE October sales by Chicago’s two leading mail order houses were the largest in dollar amount for any month since March, 1920. The 25 per cent gain over October, 1922, however, is smaller than corresponding increases earlier in the year. In fact, the spread between the two years’ busi ness has been gradually decreasing from 41.1 per cent in February to 32.6 per cent for the ten months ending O c tober 31. The increase of nearly 45 per cent in October sales over September compares with 40.8 per cent last year, and corresponding gains of less than 20 per cent in 1920 and 1921. TRANSPORTATION DEPARTMENT STORE TRADE Expansion in department store trade during October was fairly uniform throughout the district, the only excep tions to the general increase in sales being two stores that had shown marked gains earlier in the season. This in crease over September of nearly 20 per cent, however, is partly the effect of the three more trading days in October. With sales for all but five stores larger than during O c tober, 1922, the percentage gain for the district was higher than the average for the summer months, although less than that shown in the first part of the year. Cumulative sales since July exceeded the corresponding four months in 1922 by 15 per cent, and reflect increases by most of the firms. A notable increase during October in merchandise and miscellaneous freight was largely responsible for the fact that the month showed the greatest volume of carloadings of any month this year. Since July the monthly totals have exceeded those of corresponding months in previous years. Freight revenues of the railroads, however, have not in creased accordingly. A comparison of the theoretical monthly apportionment by the Bureau of Railway Econom ics of the net operating income of Class I railroads, with their actual earnings, is significant. This indicates that during the earlier months of the year when carloadings were below the present levels, the railroads’ income more nearly approached 5J4 per cent, the “ fair” return on tentative valuation as established by the Interstate Com merce Commission, than was the case during August and September. Page 11 December M ONTHLY BUSINESS INDICES COMPUTED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF CHICAGO (Index numbers express a comparison of unit or dollar volume for the month indicated, using the monthly average for 1919 as a base, unless otherwise indicated. Figures for latest month shown partly estimated on basis of returns received to date. Data refer to the Seventh Federal Reserve District unless otherwise noted.) No. of Oct. Employment— Firms 1923 Iron and Steel Products: Number Employed..... 56 89.2 88.1 Amount of Payroll..... 56 A ll Industries: Number Employed..... 296 98.6 Amount of Payroll....296 117.8 Meat Packing— (U. S.)— Sales (in dollars)1 ........... 63 109.0 Stoves and Furnaces— Shipments (in dollars).... 18 137.2 Agricultural Pumps— (U. S.)— 98.4 21 Shipments (in dollars Furniture*— 13 111.3 Orders (in dollars).... 13 158.5 Shoes*— 175.5 37 Production (in pair: 172.2 37 Shipments (in pairs) Electric Energy— Output of Plants 161.0 10 175.2 Industrial Sales (K W H ) 10 Flour Production— 116.5 45 Freight Carloadings— (U . S.) Grain and Grain Prod 126.6 ucts .............................. 132.1 Live Stock ...................... 118.7 Coal .................................. 130.7 Coke .................................. 129.4 Forest Products ............. 164.9 Ore .................................... Merchandise and Mis 159.5 cellaneous ..................... 133.9 Total ................................ Iron and Steel— Pig Iron Production: 147.4 Illinois and Indiana.... 123.6 United States ............. Steel Ingot Production 122.8 (U. S.) ..................... — Unfilled Orders U. S. 78.0 Steel Corp...................... Automobiles— (U . S.)— Production: 242.0 Passenger Cars ........... 114.6 Trucks .......................... Shipments (Monthly Average, 1920=100): 199.3 Carloads ...................... 99.9 D riveaw ays.................. Boat (Base Figures (1920), partly esti 235.8 mated) .......................... Stamp Tax Collec tions— (First Illinois Internal R e v e n u e District)— Sales or Transfer of 103.8 Capital Stock................ Sales of Produce on 37.5 Exchange— Futures .... Sept. 1923 Oct. 1922 Sept. 1922 89.8 84.3 81.3 74.2 79.1 68.1 97.2 112.8 90.8 102.1 88.3 96.8 106.1 99.6 91.1 114.7 119.4 92.9 85.9 100.8 97.1 120.7 125.5 183.6 147.9 143.3 131.3 148.0 169.7 167.1 180.6 147.3 162.3 143.4 169.8 138.3 147.3 127.6 147.0 103.8 112.6 97.4 128.3 108.8 145.0 127.1 196.9 131.8 121.7 117.9 113.0 103.7 125.8 129.3 106.5 105.3 93.8 98.5 139.7 128.8 121.6 114.9 145.4 122.6 103.0 103.5 85.7 79.8 114.8 118.0 97.5 84.0 115.1 111.6 216.2 107.7 156.4 81.6 135.7 72.8 172.0 101.1 129.5 89.7 125.9 76.9 249.5 224.2 239.3 123.9 89.8 94.7 120.0 42.0 Monthly 47.6 Average 57.2 No. of Firms Wholesale Trade— Net Sales (in dollars): Groceries ................ ...... 40 Hardware ............... ___ 21 Shoes ...................... ..... 11 Drugs .................... ..... 14 Dry Goods ................... 13 Automobile A ccessories ............................ 7 Retail Trade (Depart ment Stores)— Net Sales (in dollars): Chicago ........................ 9 Detroit .......................... 6 Des Moines ................. 3 Indianapolis ................ 4 Milwaukee .... .............. 5 Outside ........................ 43 Seventh District ......... 70 Retail Trade (U. S.)— Department Stores ....... 304 Mail Order Houses.......... 4 Chain Stores: Grocery ......................... 27 D r u g .............................. 10 Shoe ............................... 6 Five and Ten Cent...... 5 Music .........- ................. 4 C ig a r.................... ....... 3 Candy ............................ 3 Movement of Grain at U. S. Interior Pri mary Markets— Receipts: Oats ...................... ....... Corn ...................... Wheat .................. ....... Shipments: Oats ...................... ....... Corn ...................... ....... Wheat .................. ....... Building Construction— Contracts Awarded (in dollars): Residential .................. Total ............................ Permits: Chicago .........Number Cost .... Indianapolis ..Number C o s t..... Des Moines....Number Cost .... Detroit .........Number Cost .... Milwaukee ....Number C o st..... Others (45)....Number C o s t ..... Fifty Cities....Number C o s t..... 1919-1920-1921= 100; Oct. 1923 Sept. Oct. 1923 , 1922 Sept. 1922 86.1 120.0 72.5 115.0 108.9 85.9 108.3 63.8 104.2 116.7 82.0 103.3 77.5 104.2 98.9 81.8 99.6 76.1 94.2 106.5 97.0 81.8 64.0 77.5 141.9 159.7 117.5 137.0 170.4 168.9 128.7 151.8 * 136.8 136.0 104.6 126.6 124.3 130.5 106.5 150.7 143.3 109.2 128.1 104.0 133.7 109.6 130.4 123.5 93.3 118.0 148 134 113 . 92 130 109 106 75 191 152 139 180 137 138 185 171 143 127 151 102 140 244 150 133 121 155 119 127 195 142 129 116 135 118 135 199 144.5 110.4 122.0 135.6 124.8 147.1 126.0 220.6 156.1 117.6 231.3 182.0 106.4 60.6 60.6 86.6 77.5 86.1 88.4 157.3 88.4 89.6 130.3 106.0 157.4 105.9 89.0 92.5 126.2 94.7 93.4 113.2 294.7 320.6 282.0 258.7 230.4 135.0 19T.5 180.5 269.0 310.8 238.8 179.6 241.7 236.8 220.2 321.(1 240.9 154.8 289.2 192.1 184.2 140.4 202.4 166.8 213.0 170.8 207.7 210.6 ... .... . 200.9 168.3 172.7 141.2 226.4 187.3 228.1 180.9 124.5 161.8 370.7 135.3 136.6 153.7 125.2 144.8 232.9 216.1 136.0 147.2 189.7 166.6 132.1 '118.7 194.1 * 171.5 140.5 148.1 3. Monthly Average of 1920-1921=100 ; 2. 1. Monthly Average mean of production and shipments in 1919=100. The following are sources of data used in obtaining the index numbers in cases where they are not based on direct returns to this bank: Iron and Steel—Iron Age, Iron Trade Review, and Steel and Metal Digest; Automobile shipments—National Automobile Chamber of Commerce; Freight Carloadings—American Railway Association; Retail Trade, United States—Federal Reserve Board; Movement of Grain—Howard, Bartels & Co., Daily Trade Bulletin. Page 12 December
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