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CHICAGO, AUGUST 25, 1920 T I O N RULES IN BUSINESS IN THE SEVENTH D ISTRICT. TH E PROC A Uducer is cautious for the very good reason that mistakes cannot be made in high-priced labor and raw materials without loss both of prestige and profits. Middlemen are cautious because the retailers compel them so to be. And retailers are taking frequent soundings because they have “ sensed” shoals in the popular purchasing power. The buying public— at length instructed on the dangers of spending everything from pay day to pay day— are checking the extravagances which have made bonanzas hitherto for the long line of industries and trades engaged in supplying popular desires and needs, regardless of prices. Therefore, shrewd men of business in all positions are slowing up a little, taking their bearings and trying to find out when, where and how far the heralded drop in prices is going to go. Net result: caution, a waiting attitude, and a certain grim resignation to the inevitable. W HAT SY ST E M A TIC IN Q U IR Y REVEALS IN TH E M ID D LE W EST Our recent “ Wholesale Questionnaire” brought ioo per cent affirmative reply to the question “ Is the trade following a course of caution in commitments?” Unanimously “ Yes” — everybody is very wary and waiting to see what is to happen. The key to the whole situation is a dearth of liquid capital and restriction of bank credit. With the busi ness world in a most adventuresome and daring frame of mind— everyone determined to get his share of the profits scented in the ruling high prices— it was neces sary for the banks to take stern action to avert the otherwise certain repetition of what has happened in China and Japan. The only way open to accomplish liquidation painlessly and safely was that chosen by the banks— namely, to compel progressive liquidations of hoarded or “ cornered” products, as a condition pre cedent to the granting of further loans. That is to say, the banks have put down the heel of their impera tive “ No” upon speculation and profiteering every where. As a result there is much shifting of burdens and responsibility. The jobber, finding it impossible to obtain as much money or credit as he desires to carry out his plan for holding this or that commodity, is refraining from his usual purchases and compelling first hands to carry the product. But it is no easier for the manufacturer to borrow unlimited funds at the banks than for the jobber. Thus it happens— by one of the curious economic paradoxes of the day— that the manufacturer of many things is spared from the danger of disastrous losses later on by the present inefficiency and low productivity of the average worker. The goods that are piling up in warehouses, being carried on someone’s borrowings at banks, must be marketed some time. What they bring depends wholly cn supply and demand factors. That there will be losses on much merchandise is con ceded by conservative judges; but the losses will be much less severe and serious than would be the case if the banks had been more prodigal in financing excessive inventories and extravagant manufacturing activities at a time when the proper law of economic procedure was prudence and not speculation. That there must be wholesale liquidation of the stocks resting in first hands is generally admitted; and the business world is resigned to the necessity, believing that there can be otherwise no speedy readjustment of wage and price factors whereby normal economic con ditions may be restored to the country. Compiled August 21, 1920 GENERAL BUSINESS APPEARS TO BE MARKING TIME In consequence of this and other influences, general business appears to be marking time pending a definite turn in affairs one way or the other, while uncertainty dominates the business mind, with some outcropping of pessimism here and there. Failure of the wheat crop to come up to expectations is having its influence, but the dominant factor is the credit situation. Crops, speaking generally, promise well, with in dications for a larger production than a year ago in all excepting wheat. Rain is needed all through the Dis trict to bring the corn crop up to expectations, but the greatest obstacle to the farmer at the present time is to market his grain or live stock, because of inadequate transportation facilities. The question of holding crops for higher prices no longer enters into the prob lem, for the farmer could not sell if he wanted to under the present conditions because of inability to make deliveries owing to a lack of cars. He has been forced to hold his grain and necessarily he will not move it now even with improvement in the car situation until this can be done without interference with the fall farm work, as there is a serious shortage of farm help that already has crippled him greatly. Unless there is a strong revival in buying of canned goods at present prices (which include only a moderate profit over cost) the canners will be obliged to dump their stocks on a weak market. In such event, the relatively small stocks in first hands may turn out to be a life saver, as labor, materials and tin plate rule high, while transportation difficulties and the scarcity of sugar further complicate the troubles of the canning industry. Fruit and vegetables throughout the Seventh District are normal, and an average potato crop is maturing. Ordinarily credit demand is heaviest in the fall of the year, because of agricultural necessity, and the present year is no exception. Considerable attention has been devoted to the possible effect of new crop requirements at the banks because of their already loaned-up condition. There is a wide divergence of opinion among bankers as to the probable demands. Both the country elevator operators and the farmers are clearing bins of any carry-over from the 1919 crop where possible, to make way for the new yield, but this is a slow process. Credit frozen to grain carried over from last year will be released for new usage with the marketing of old grain, which is now actively under way with an added supply of cars in the grain belt. FAR M ER S’ DISPOSITION IS TO M A R K E T W H EAT AS TH RESH ED This transportation situation also has a bearing on the disposition of the 1920 harvest. Wherever the transportation facilities have been adequate, the atti tude of the farmer has been to market his grain as fast as it could be taken from the thresher, thus saving rehandling, but in most localities cars were not available and the elevators were full. Wherever the farmer has been forced to store his wheat in bins, the disposition is to hold for higher prices, in order to offset shrinkage and the cost of re-handling, as well as the loss of interest through inability to liquidate loans. It will be recalled that last year there was a heavy carry-over of grain, farmers starting out with the in tention of holding for a few months for a more favorable price level. They encountered an extremely bad trans portation situation which prevented the marketing of grain when prices did improve. The result was rather disastrous, as in many instances farmers were forced to carry grain for many months against their wish and to borrow at the banks. Much of this is still being carried by the banks, either on farms or in country elevators. This tends to make the farmer cautious. If cars are obtainable the farmer as a rule is not delay ing shipment of his grain to market. Another factor militating against widespread storage of grain is the uncertainty as to the future course of the commodity markets. Few persons have the courage to back up their guess as to what prices will do in the next few months; others fear repetition of the car scarcity of last year, in event values do rise. Frequent comment is heard regarding the farmers’ prosperity. Many of them have made advantageous sales of land in the last year, which have given them a tidy surplus to work on. Those who have not sold land as a rule are able to borrow money from their neighbors. It is needless to say that little of such talk is heard from the farmers themselves who through inability to market their grain and live stock in many cases already have suffered heavy losses and many of them complain that there is not sufficient new credit obtainable to re-stock pastures and feed lots. D IF F IC U L T IE S OF T H E C A T T L E GROW ERS SERIOUS In the cattle industry there is much complaint about present conditions in the money market and the inevitable reaction on growers of live-stock. Leading cattle loan men operating with Chicago as a center say that money is costing them about ten per cent, making rates prohibitive to the cattle industry and forcing liquidations at heavy losses. In the breeding and feeding regions a large acreage of fine grass is said to be going to waste because of the inability of local banks to afford the necessary financing. Bankers say they are doing all that is possible for the financing of the animal industry, but with the available supply of money and the small margin of profit obtainable by rediscounting at present rates, they are unable to fully meet the demands of the stock growers for liberal credits extending over long finishing periods. The live stock industry requires a large amount of rather long time financing. The paper representing such financing, however, is not eligible for rediscount. The banker is between the two horns of the dilemma. He earnestly desires to protect this great food producing industry; yet if he does so to the extent required, he is burdened with a great volume of frozen credit— at least so far as rediscount availability at the Federal Reserve Bank is concerned— for si? months is the limit. The effect of the conditions now prevalent in the stock growing regions, according to some of the import ant cattle loan men, will be to drive to the stock mar kets during the next two months an enormous glut of thin “ feeder” cattle. In ordinary times these cattle would find ready financing at the banks and would go into finishing and fattening for the spring crop of juicy beefsteaks. But as matters now stand, those who usually buy such feeders will stand aloof from the market, compelling the shipper to “ dump” them for canning purposes, involving demoralization of prices for all cattle and necessarily making a big shortage of fat cattle in the spring. Chicago Union Stock Yards report lighter receipts of live stock and a firming up of prices after the early slump. Domestic demand is lively and present prices likely to hold for the next 60 days. The foreign de mand is sluggish and comparatively little being done on account of the foreign exchange demoralization. Packers are operating with great caution and refrain ing from excessive accumulations of product. LABOR SITU ATION D IST IN C T L Y B E TT E R : The labor situation is distinctly better, though there is some shortage. Good wages are being paid and the packing house employees are less restless than a few months ago when it seemed that there was no limit to the amount of money a worker might demand and obtain, under threat of strikes and paralysis of pro ductive industry. The traditional irresistible demand for more houses and rentable rooms continues to beat its head against the immutable difficulty of building on the present levels of wages and structural materials. Only here and there is there anything encouraging to report. Masons, carpenters, plasterers, hod carriers, plumbers HOUSING CRISIS STILL A CU TE and the rest of the structural trade gentry demand such princely compensation, and the cost of lumber, mill work, cement, sand, stone, wire nails and plumbing supplies rules so high that it is an exceptional financier who can see any profit in building houses for the neces sitous factory hands. Meantime, in the great centers of population there goes on the rancorous quarrel be tween the renter, who thinks he is going to be gouged by rent profiteers, and the apartment house owner or agent, who thinks he will go into bankruptcy if he cannot make new leases on an advance of from 40 to 70 per cent. Nothing, apparently, can save the day unless it is a general scaling down of wages and material costs. M E R CA N TILE SPECU LATION ON TH E W ANE Dry goods conditions appear to be fairly satisfac tory. Sales for immediate delivery are on a more conservative basis and the selling of futures is nil, the trade generally declining to quote prices for next spring until there is more information as to the “ next jump of the cat” in cotton and textiles. Stocks are being held as small as possible in all positions, for the good reason that nobody wants to assume the burden of carrying merchandise at a time when the banks are doing all they can to force liquidation of excess inven tories and restricting credits that savor or smack of “ running corners for a rise.” There is far less of the speculative element in dry goods merchandising. For this the bankers are mainly to be thanked, though the Washington propaganda in favor of reduced buying at the top is credited with much influence, especially in the woolen department. FU R N ITU RE SCAR CE AND M A K ER S U N EA SY Stocks of furniture are at a low level and the diffi culties in the way of replenishment are somewhat serious, as it is impossible to obtain some of the fine woods needed, hardware and fittings are scarce and high in price and the labor market though distinctly less nervous leaves a good deal to be desired in efficiency and stability. Worst of all, the financing of furniture production demands much working capital, and it is more difficult than ever to obtain funds at the banks. The demand is good— too good, in fact, for the pro ductive capacity of the makers. Housing difficulties, high domestic costs and other common vagaries of popular taste are continually driving people to hotel life, and it is increasingly difficult to buy the needed interior outfittings for large hostelries. IM P LE M E N T M A C H IN E R Y CONDITIONS Tractor makers are complaining that they have difficulty in financing heavy machinery in the existing state of bank credits. The demand is strong and stocks are small as a necessary result of the prevalent shortage of pig iron and numerous other necessary materials. The labor situation is better all around but as an offset the car shortage and transportation annoyances remain. On the whole, matters are looking up. The farm situation makes it obligatory on farmers to use machine tools more and more liberally. COLLECTIONS APPEAR r° BE LESS FAVORABLE Evidence of a recession in business is to be found in the slowing up of collections during the last thirty to sixty days. An exhaustive investigation of this phase of mercantile affairs reveals that in virtually all branches of trade there is manifest a more general tendency on the part of the purchaser of goods to ignore discounts or ask extensions. Some of this is traceable to the usual seasonal let-up but not all of it can be so explained. Of those complaining of less satisfactory collections, 25 per cent cite as the cause the banking restrictions on credit extensions, and the effort to bring about a cur tailment of loans. About 20 per cent cite the recent transportation difficulties as a governing cause. This does not mean that all business is suffering from poor collections. The majority of replies to a general questionnaire on the subject say that collec tions either are “ good” or “ normal,” but the situation generally is less satisfactory than a month or so ago, with slightly more than 28 per cent of the answers complaining of the ruling state of things. In cer tain lines, of course, the collections are poor. Exact records by a representative clothing manu facturer show a decline in collections during the period April to July, 1920, inclusive, as against January to March inclusive. This is measured by an increase of 47.5 per cent average monthly unsettled and out standing receivables. On the other hand a long established grocery house shows similar figures indicat ing a decline of 54.5 per cent in the monthly total of outstanding accounts between March and July. A wholesale dry goods house shows an average monthly gain in collections for the first seven months of 1920 of 6.4 per cent over the like period of 1919. Another indication of less satisfactory collection conditions is noted by a clothing house. In April only 23 per cent of the month-end accounts were overdue more than 30 days. In June 82 per cent of the outstandings were over the 30-day limit. TRA N SPO R TATIO N SITUATION SHOWS IM PRO V EM EN T The transportation situation has improved some what in recent weeks, because of the return of railroad labor to service, following the substantial increase in wages awarded by the railway labor board, and to the steadily increasing operating efficiency. Complaint is heard from manufacturers who have been affected by the withdrawal of cars from their service to serve the coal fields and grain belt. Concentration of thousands of freight cars in the granger territory has relieved the tension there, although as a rule this is not particularly perceptible on the ground, because of the allocation of the available supply of cars over a wide territory. SE T T LE M E N T OF M IN E R S’ ST R IK E S RELIEVES COAL SH ORTAGE SOME The settlement of strikes in the coal fields has given the fuel situation a brighter aspect, temporarily at least. Coal has been received from the mines in a much heavier volume than for some time back, but manufacturers, utilities and householders alike are still worried as they have no assurance that the miners will stay on the job and accept as final the terms by which they returned to their posts. As this is written the newspapers are making mention of the possibility of another coal miners’ strike. While production is better at the moment, the winter supplies are uncomfortably low and accumula tions at markets are seriously hampered by scarcity and condition of rolling stock. Preferential treatment of fuel shipments is having a good effect and conditions appear to be getting easier every day. The chief thing operators are praying for is a new spirit of pacifism among the pit workers. If they will only take their increased wages and load coal into cars at the best rate possible there is yet time to stave off the sharp and frosty edge of a fuel famine this winter. Virtually all replies received from the manufacturing industries of the District, to aid us in the preparation of this report, make specific mention of the serious implications of the small movement of coal at this time of the year. Storage supplies are small indeed. ST EEL PRODUCTION IS SLOW ING DOWN There has been some slowing up in the steel trade, with business at low ebb for a few of the smaller cor porations. Those concerns with sufficient orders on hand to justify large production have been restricted by transportation and fuel difficulties. Cessation of building projects has had a great effect on the steel trade. There is a slight tendency to shade prices in some lines, but this has not assumed readily perceptible proportions to date. Pig iron and coke dealers report very scanty stocks of pig iron and conditions indicate no relief in the im mediate future. Sales of pig iron for 1921 delivery are reported at $50 a ton base, Northern Furnace. It is, however, impossible to obtain foundry iron in any large quantities, and consumers are forced to pick up job lots wherever they can find them and at whatever price sellers demand. WOOLEN GOODS BOOKED FOR LOW ER LEVELS Fine wools are scarce and coarse wools are a drug on the market. The weavers have gone on short time and the Government has been advising people to avoid unnecessary buying of clothes until the market drops. Consequently there was a flood of cancella tions, slow payments for goods already delivered and a general slowing down of the apparel industries. The situation is regarded as painful, if not positively bad for the manufacturers and all who are “ stuck” with high-priced wool. Bank credits are being watched with hawk-eyed keenness; and the immediate problem is to avoid being caught with too much of the goods in stock. Indications now point to recessions in cloth ing prices during the next 60 to 90 days. HIDES AND LE A TH E R CAN CELLATIO N S NUMEROUS First hands are holding the leather and having more than the usual difficulty in financing it. Can cellations are coming in in volume, sales are 50 per cent off 1919 for the first seven months of the year and all signs point to lower prices later in the season. The automobile demand for leather is the only really rosy spot in the picture. It looks as if the makers of cars would return to the market in time and ease up the present pressure. IN VESTM EN T M A R K E T ENCOU RAGING Notwithstanding the depressing effect of the reign ing low quotations for Liberties and other Government bond issues, principal operators in the investment security field give optimistic accounts of present con ditions. There is a better market for municipals and a good absorptive demand. Long term issues are being readily taken by shrewd buyers who realize that the present scale of net yields cannot be maintained forever. An influence markedly for good was the rate decision of the Interstate Commerce Commission, which was followed almost immediately by a revived demand for the choicest railway loans. Generally speaking, the investment outlook is distinctly better than it was earlier in the year. BAN K IN G STATISTICS SHOW M ODERATION Credit movement, as indicated in the aggregate debits to individual accounts, shows a decrease from the July figure, although it is moderately larger than in the corresponding period of 1919. The total debits as of August 11, 1920, reported by 195 banks in 24 leading clearing house centers including Chicago, was $1,092,341,000, which compares with $1,209,122,000 on July 14, 1920, when 187 banks reported in 23 leading clearing house centers, and $1,031,256,000 on August 13 , 1919. Savings deposits maintain a strong upward tend ency, both in dollar volume and in number of accounts. There are a few instances where the downward trend has developed in the last few months. One savings bank, speaking of the improvement in savings de posits which has been noticeable for some time, attri butes this to the wage earners becoming more thrifty, and the increase in the number of small accounts opened would seem to bear this out. Practically all the banks in this district pay only 3 per cent on savings, hence they cannot compete with the return offered larger savers from permanent investments. SELECTED M EM BER BA N K ST A TIST ICS— SEVEN TH D IST R IC T (cod’s omitted) C H IC A G O ------50 Member Banks-----Aug. 6, Aug. 8, July 9, 1920 1920 1919 D E T R O IT ------12 Member Banks-----Aug. 6, Aug. 8, July 9, 1920 1919 1920 Ite m s— T otal U. S. Securities.................................. Loans— (exclusive of rediscount) Secured by U. S. war obligations......... Loans secured by stocks and bonds other than U. S. securities................. All other loans and investm ents........... (exclusive of rediscounts) Reserve Balance with Federal Reserve B anks............................... ..................... Cash in v a u lt......................... ..................... Deposits— N et Dem ands...................... ..................... T im e...................................... Governm ent....................... ...................... #56,574 $61,280 14,516 11,180 12,795 59,999 323, 7°7 59,006 324,196 297,5 U t $66,492 $104,899 #53,550 #54,123 #63,452 13,676 15,019 14,564 56,308 316,520 314,657 57,89! 63,785 72,822 342,036 882,627 344,589 870,100 916,422! I 33,°79 36,963 137,938 39,868 120,433 37,201 28,561 13,465 26.935 14,467 27,621 12,528 26,354 15,669 27,287 16,671 29,375 13,478 957,209 961,607 284,413 2,590 880,209 167,8^1 49,! 73 202,676 224,798 367 200,638 224,070 1,817 196,861 175,887 17,726 228,425 118,648 1,776 234,041 118,550 821 2,19,163 4 ,H 9 ♦ Figures for August 8, 1919, were from 44 Banks. #56,43° $160,761 OTH ER — 45 Member Banks— Aug. 6, Aug. 8, July 9, 1920 1920 '93 * 9 58,622 tlncludes loans secured by stocks and bonus except U. S. Securities. 307 ,H 9 t 99,567 n , 35 i OPEN M A R K E T DISCOUN T AND IN T E R E ST RATES IN CHICAGO The open market range of discount and interest rates prevailing in Chicago during the thirty-day period ending August 15, 1920, together with a comparison of rates during the thirty-day periods ending July 15, 1920, and August 15, 1919, follows: A U G U S T , 1920 High Low 1. Rates o f discount charged by banks to customers for prime commercial paper such as is now eligible under the Federal Reserve Act: 5. Running 30, 60 and go d ays................... 7 ' U- 6 b. Running 4 to 6 m onths............................. 7 7 2. Rates for prime commercial paper purchased in the open market: 3. Rates charged on loans to other banks— secured by J U L Y , 1920 AU G U ST Customary High 7 7 7 7 6 6^ 7 7 6 6 Low ’ Custom ary High J9T9 Customa Low 5l< c K @6 5 K @6 5K 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 5K 5>^ 5K 5X 5K @ 5H 5 K @5 K 7 7 7 7 7 7 5^ 5^ 5^ 6K 6 6 @6j £ 6X 6TtG6K 6« 6K 5K 6K SV s 6 6 45/16 4/8 4^ 4/4 4/4 @45Yg 4 K@ 45/fo 7 6k 7 7 cy 7 6 5K 5 K @6 6K 7 7 7 7 6k 6k 7 7 6 6 5H 5^ 5 K @6 5 K @6 1 7 7 7 7 6 5^ 5J4 @6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5K 5K@ 6 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5^ 5 Rates for bankers’ acceptances of 60 to 90 days maturities: 5. Rates for demand paper secured by prime stock ex6. 7. 2 Rates for time paper secured by collateral mentioned in No 5: 7 7 Rates (when paper is current in city) for: a. Cattle loans.................................................. 7 b. Comm odity paper secured by warehouse chase o f bonds) secured by: a. Liberty bonds............. 6 6 j£ BU ILD IN G PERM ITS OF SEVEN TH FE D E R A L RESE R VE D IST R IC T CITIE S JU LY, of Permits Illinois A urora ........................................................ Chicago........................................... ................................... D ecatur........................................... E van ston ........................................ Peoria.............................................. R ockford......................................... Indiana Fort W ayn e.................................... Ham m ond...................................... ................................... Indianapolis................................... ................................... Richm ond ............................................... South B en d ............................................ ............................. Terre H au te .......................................... Iowa Cedar R apids ........................................ ................................... D avenport ............................................... ................................... Des M oines ............................................ ................................... D ubuque ................................................. ................................... Mason C it y ............................................ ................................... Michigan Battle C reek .......................................... B ay C i t y ................................................ D etro it............................................ F lin t................................................. Grand R apid s................................ Jackson............................................ ............................. K a la m a z o o .................................... ............................. Lansing........................................... Per Cent Gain Per Cent Loss Estimated Cost of Permits Estim ated Cost 43,608 6,669,30 0 150 ,3 50 87,990 91,4 0 0 169,480 40 606 $ 1 7 4 ,2 7 4 7 ,7 1 4 ,7 0 0 75 84 230 ,9 25 448.448 34 27^556 74 85 174 ,2 0 0 2 1 1 ,5 4 0 64 U 7 4 6 ,3 5 7 J 5,200 180 $ 253 3i 52 “ 7 13 80 64 69 260,900 5 5 8 ,4 15 56 38 347-525 777 1,2 5 6 ,0 10 42,000 2 2 7 ,7 7 1 59,440 784 20 217 65 2 5 1 ,3 8 7 70 ,4 50 210,000 266,063 3 0 .275 86 142 I4O 22 424,000 384,278 69 8,350 16 8 ,3 9 4 7 7 ,6 7 0 64 3 3,0 95 52,322 9 2 ,12 3 5,8 0 5,190 598,968 87 80 2,465 7 1,0 0 0 9 7,94 0 8,0 79,965 3 27 189 1 ,3 9 2 ,1 3 5 2 8 5 ,4 16 36,480 12 7 ,6 6 4 B7 39 330,087 16 2 ,5 6 5 103,953 17 9 3 4 9 ,9 75 21 70 1,3 4 6 ,2 75 230,289 220 27 0 ,4 3 7 14 264 6 6 9 ,2 3 7 66 34 67 52 14 3 ,6 2 5 1 ,6 0 3 ,1 5 4 42,980 128 73 7 t, 8 i 9 604 383 *5 89 67 l6 82 343 . i 65 379.698 60 33 Saginaw ........................................... ............................. 221 Wisconsin Kenosha.......................................... M adison.......................................... ............................. M ilw aukee...................................... O shkosh.......................................... 3S ................................. 106 Sheboygan...................................... ............................. n 6 J U L Y , 1919 1920 224,432 46,830 1,63 0 ,0 79 97 ,9 18 198,80 5 500,824 521 28 9 U 5° 3° 5° 82 153 a6 5 28 57 33 P R O D U C T IO N OF CORN , W H EA T, CO T TO N , OATS A N D H A Y , B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E D IS T R IC T S Forecast of the Bureau of Crop Estimates as of August I, 1920. (In thousands of units of measurement.) CORN (Bushels) A ug. 1 Forecast Federal Refor serve District 1920 Boston................ New Y o rk .......... P h iladelphia.. . . C leveland........... Richm ond.......... A tla n ta ............... Chicago.............. St. Louis............. M inneapolis. . . . Kansas C i t y . . . . D a lla s................. San F rancisco... TO TAL W HEAT (Bushels) July 1 Forecast for 1920 7,081 7,005 34,223 57,153 34,729 55,446 198,893 190,672 253,202 891,552 438,887 245,420 483,172 193,853 10,276 41,089 66,444 212,297 188,994 187,846 180,805 230,761 859,627 398,851 241,114 402,781 170,709 9,214 T o ta l...........3 ,003,322 Estimate for 1919 240,315 927,852 380,722 242,363 372,870 225,743 8,485 9,!79 2,778,903 2,9 J7,45° Aug. i Forecast for 1920 July 1 Forecast for 1920 August 1 Forecast for 1920 Boston................... New Y o rk ............ Philadelphia........ Cleveland............. Richm ond............ A tla n ta ................. Chicago................. St. Louis............... M inneapolis......... Kansas C it y ........ D a lla s................... San F rancisco.. . . T o ta l............. July 1 Forecast for 1920 463 n ,8 i6 23,838 34,633 37,613 6,614 65,3*5 54,774 183,197 261,226 15,184 99,444 245,270 16,285 103,244 480 12,493 25,922 63,748 37,094 10,326 112,202 108,022 135,094 300,994 33,605 101,008 794,147 809,600 940,988 456 11,546 24,269 34,788 35,891 6,676 65,803 55,837 209,535 11,094 23,510 34,027 July 1 Forecast for 1920 Aug. 1 Forecast for 1920 Ju ly 1 Forecast for 1920 463 722 328 606 456 656 324 57! 480 750 316 1,034 15,785 833 19,140 1,001 284,531 32,707 61,075 15,874 889 176,012 19^762 778 46,072 78 i 129,337 16,463 898 731,636 261,506 10,890 11,743 25,606 62,714 53,372 23,945 34,217 35,89! 6,676 50,018 55,004 8,379 224,357 15,504 53,364 532,641 518,245 37,613 6,614 49,471 53,885 7, i 85 241,464 14,406 37,094 10,326 93,062 107,021 5,757 201,156 20,913 49,880 39,933 291,355 209,352 H A Y , tame and wild (Tons) July 1 Forecast for 1920 Estim ate for 1919 August 1 Forecast for 1920 13,433 12,600 42,149 24,742 71,522 26,826 29,101 484,323 67,302 289,700 186,366 41,419 46,015 12,123 31,856 23,214 70,279 4,339 4 ,160 5,664 4,912 7P 73 2,939 5,463 3,155 29,008 461,082 4,540 4,494 I 7 , i 85 4,088 4 , i 94 1,322,065 2,190 2,990 2,079 2,372 2, 75! 2,816 2,173 1,906 1,789 885 4,081 (a) 187 860 (a) 180 (a)U 7 (b)!2,5i8 (b) 11,566 (b) 11,030 1,402,064 3,097 Estimate for 1919 August 1 Forecast for 1920 44,619 25,807 82,061 27>53o 28,128 530,141 71,508 289,219 198,783 44,561 46,274 832 S P R IN G W H E A T (Bushels) Estimate for 1919 O A TS (Bushels) Estim ate for 1919 3,779 Aug. 1 Forecast for 1920 Estimate for 1919 C O T T O N (Bales) Federal Re serve District W IN T E R W H E A T (Bushels) 6,058 3,168 6,011 26,397 99,004 7,658 18,831 20,257 1,792 40,219 1,248,311 63,595 208,857 182,677 July 1 Forecast for 1920 Estim ate for 1919 6,089 4,916 4,272 18,629 8,124 15,899 7,H 7 9,054 1 2,933 13,367 1,419 11,449 17,245 19,907 2,309 12,035 107,266 84,813 108,666 (a) In addition the following amounts were estimated grown in Lower California (Mexico): Aug. i , 1920 forecast-— 93,000 bales; July 1, 1920 forecast— 91,000 bales; estimate for 1919— 52,000 bales. (b) Cotton grown outside o f cotton belt included as follows: Aug. 1, 1920 forecast— 12,000 bales; Ju ly I , 1920 forecast— 11,000 bales; estimate for 1919— 8,000 bales. R E C E IP T S A N D SH IPM EN TS OF IM P O R T A N T CO M M O D IT IE S A T CH ICA G O (ooo’s omitted) R E C E IP T S Products 1920 Flour, barrels................................... W heat, bushels................................ Corn, bushels................................... Oats, bushels.................................... R ye, bushels ................................. Barley, bushels ............................. Cured M eats, pounds..................... Fresh M eats, pounds..................... Lard, pounds................................... Cheese, pounds................................ Butter, pounds................................ Eggs, cases........................................ Potatoes, bushels............................. Hides, pounds.................................. W ool, p o u n d s................................. Lum ber, thousand feet.................. S H IP M E N T S July June 1919 1920 606 8l l 2,562 9,375 1,509 .................... 9,0 67 .................... .................... 7,299 4,8 8 7 XI,O I2 467 2 ,8 lO .................... 8,864 4,674 .................... 19,463 478 869 9,686 .................... 10 1 ,6 3 4 45,250 369 5,524 56,977 ................. I 3 , 76 o .................... 2 1,8 5 3 ................. 4 2 ,9 1 7 24,505 1 2 ,6 15 22,328 1 9 ,'9 3 40,626 966 242 41,523 622 .................... .................... ................. 6 17 563 9,855 9,192 18 ,26 3 2 2 ,6 l8 200 9 >! 79 12,0 23 234 Ju ly June 1919 192 0 1919 747 508 2 ,6 3 2 340 548 1 ,2 9 2 4,073 856 8 ,0 77 1 0 ,1 1 3 165 3,5i 6 16 ,7 6 4 125,734 23,355 22,8 0 7 4 6 ,3 3 1 1,080 1 ,1 9 1 18 ,4 2 0 14,2 78 18 4 192 0 2,995 2 ,3 1 6 2,4 78 4,323 6,443 533 4,309 597 439 389 398 45,503 1 5 0 ,1 6 5 22,0 64 8 ,241 2 2 ,4 5 9 267 124 1,7 8 9 9 6 ,4 8 7 177,395 55,215 29,875 4 1 ,9 1 9 286 9,793 399 13,897 8 ,4 16 82 15,2 0 6 90 »9 X9 501 1,0 40 2,228 6 ,2 1 1 51,8 8 5 2 1 4 ,4 4 7 171 2 ,0 10 1 1 8 ,5 6 4 • 2 5 6 ,12 6 28,348 58,736 5,903 1 6 ,1 8 6 22,0 70 252 119 10,08 4 9 ,2 8 1 33 , 7 o o 90 243 454 16 ,0 2 1 ! 2,473 80 PROD UCTION OF BITUM INOUS COAL IN TH E U N ITE D STATES Explanation for the present shortage of coal is to be found in the chart below, showing the production of coal so far in 1920 as compared with the output during the last three years. Study of the curves discloses that the coal output was just reaching a favorable level when the labor trouble developed and there was a sharp decline in the output. For the better part of this year production has been below the 1918 and 1917 total, although above 1919. The small production last year meant no reserve for this year. The chart showing average daily production of bituminous coal, including coal coked, based on figures compiled by the United States Geological Survey follows: IN CREASE IN CAR LO AD IN G B Y W ESTE R N RAILRO ADS Railroads of the United States are carrying very much more freight this year than last, in spite of a lessened supply of cars. This is made possible by increasing operating efficiency obtained by the carriers. In the following chart is shown per cent of increases in JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH cars loaded on the five railroads which carry the greater part of the freight moving within the Seventh Federal Reserve District. These figures cover the first six months of 1920 and are compiled from official reports by these railroads. APRIL MAY
@FedFRASER