Full text of Business Conditions Digest : September 1985
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary
Sidney L. Jones, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Allan H. Young, Director
Edward K. Smith, Associate Director for
National Analysis and Projections
FeliksTamm, Editor
This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes
Betty F. Tunstall—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)
The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and
sources at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting
of the following persons:
Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor
Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget
Lincoln F. Anderson, Council of Economic Advisers
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Edward K. Smith, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
Helmut F. Wendel, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
ABOUT THIS RiPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.
Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic,
$55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
available on request. Address correspondence
Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.
concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable
to Superintendent of Documents,
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
New Features and Changes for This Issue
BCI»
iii
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes . . . . . . .
1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6
SEPTEMBER 1985
Data Through August
Volume 25, Number 9
PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS
Al
A2
A3
A4
Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components
Chart
Table
10
12
14
15
60
—
—
—
16
19
21
23
. 26
28
31
61
63
64
65
68
69
71
36
—
39
74
77
—
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Bl
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7
Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Cl
C2
C3
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change
The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department. Use of funds
for printing this periodical has been approved
by the Director of the Office of Management
and Budget through September 30, 1986.
BCI»
PART II.
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME
AT
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
AND PRODUCT
GNP and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNP and National Income
Chart
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
Table
80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83
48
49
84
87
51
89
52
53
90
90
56
57
92
93
58
59
59
94
95
96
PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices
PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
97
98
D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (July 1985 issue)
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (August 1985 issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series
105
110
114
Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
Changes in this issue are as follows:
research, newly available time series, and
1
1. The series on expenditures for new plant and equipment by U.S. nonfarm business (series 61 and 970) have been
revised by the source agency for the period 1982 to date.
These revisions reflect the application of new seasonal adjustment factors.
Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, Business Outlook Division.
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
2. The series on newly approved capital appropriations
(series 11 and 965) and backlog of capital appropriations
(series 97) have been revised by the source agency for the
period 1984 to date. These revisions reflect the application
of new seasonal adjustment factors.
Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from The Conference Board, Inc., 845 Third Avenue,
New York, NY 10022.
3. The series on funds raised by private nonfinancial
borrowers in credit markets (series 110) has been revised by
the source agency for the period 1977 to date. This revision
reflects the annual updating of the basic statistics and the
application of new seasonal adjustment factors.
Further information concerning this revision may be
obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System, Division of Research and Statistics, Flow of Funds
Section.
4. Appendix C contains historical data for series 63,
68, 114-119, 348, 349, 618, 620, 622, 651, 652, 667-669, 910,
920, and 930.
5. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series
8, 21, 36, 46, 57, and 90.
The October issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on November 5.
nt
dataf additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.
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HANDBOOK
OF
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
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BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD)
HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS
.,. a monthly report that helps you analyze the current
economy and future trends.
. . . a statistical and technical supplement that helps you
make maximum use of the monthly Business Conditions
Digest.
BCD has 1(a plethora of charts t h a t . . . provide more,
information and perspective per minute of reading time than
anything else you can find," according to Edgar R. Fiedler,
former president of the National Association of Business '
Economists. (Across the Board, February 1984,)
The HANDBOOK contains:
• Descriptions of all BCD series, providing definitions,
methods of compilation, coverage, and sources.
• Historical data for 1947-82 for all BCD series.
BCD contains:
• Composite index methodology explaining the construction of the indexes in step-by-step detail.
• Charts providing a 25-year perspective for about 300
economic time series that cover all major aspects of
the economy. Expansions and contractions in the U.S.
economy are clearly marked so that the leading, coincident,
and lagging characteristics of the series are easy to
observe.
• Reference materials including—
Scores for cyclical indicators
Average leads or lags for cyclical indicators
• Tables listing current data for all 300 series.
Measures of variability
• Appendixes providing historical data, cyclical turning
points, cyclical comparisons, and seasonal adjustment
factors.
Business cycle turning dates
Bibliography
Addresses of data sources.
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METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report is organized into two major parts.
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
part I are also shown in part II to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data,
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government
and defense-related activities, and international
transactions and comparisons.
The two parts are further divided into sections
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
begin with 1959, but those for the composite
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two-panel
format which covers only the period since 1973.
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
shading which indicates periods of recession in
general business activity. The tables contain data
for only the last few years. The historical data for
the various time series are contained in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
In addition to the charts and tables described
above, each issue contains a summary table which
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest. An index appears
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect precise
relationships or order. However, all series
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
the range 1 to 199.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday
adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)
It is the smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
MCD of 1.
The charts in this report generally include
centered MCD moving averages for those series
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
variation about the moving averages and to provide
observations for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates used
in this report are those designated by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They
mark the approximate dates when, according to
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor
the shading for recessions will be entered on the
charts until after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area
have been designated.
The historical reference turning dates are subject
to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed
as a result of revisions in important economic
time series. The dates shown in this publication
for the 1948-70 time period are those determined
by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated
turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82.
Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are based on the results of that study.
Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
conformity to business expansions and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
November 1975 issues of BCD.)
The resulting
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
a new list of indicators classified by economic
process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
relating to section B.)
This information, particularly the scores relating
to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
selection of series to be included in the composite
indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
series from many different economic-process
groups and combine those with similar timing
behavior, using their overall performance scores as
weights. Because they use series of historically
tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
of duplication, composite indexes give more
reliable signals over time than do any of the
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
N.
N.
Economic
Process
Cyclical^
Timing
X .
LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(61 series)
ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)
1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)
II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)
III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)
IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)
V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)
VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(3 series)
Job vacancies
{2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Capacity utilization
(2 series)
Orders ami deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption and
trade (2 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(5 series)
Restdentiat
construction
(3 series)
inventory
investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (2 series)
Profits and profit
margins (7 series)
Cash flows (2 series)
Money (5 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial;: •
production
(4 series)
Consumption and
trade (4 series)
Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(5 series)
LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(19 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(2 series)
TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(8 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(1 series)
Consumption and
trade ( I series)
Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Velocity of money
(2 series)
interest rates
(2 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)
Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)
Interest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (1 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)
B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
\ .
Economic
\Process
CyclicalX
Timing
N.
1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)
II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)
III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)
IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)
V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)
VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(1 series)
Industrial
production
(1 series)
Orders and deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption and
trade (4 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)
Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Stock prices
{1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (3 series)
Profits and profit
margins <6 series)
Cash flows (2 series)
Money (4 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit dHficultits
(2 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)
Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity utilization
(2 series)
Consumption and
trade (3 series)
Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (2 series)
Money (1 series)
Velocity o1 money
(1 series)
Orders and deliveries
(1 series)
Business investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(6 series)
Unit tabor costs
and labor share
(4 series)
Velocity of money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)
LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)
ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)
LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(40 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(5 series)
TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
( 1 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
well-established differences in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through
+ 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series are prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals tljie average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are five indexes based on leading indicators which
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include all 12
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident
indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
12 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to*
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. " L " denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at both peaks and
troughs, all components of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the period since 1970
can be determined by inspection of the charts,
where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of
the NBER reference cycle chronology.
Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
This section covers 111 individual time series,
including the 22 indicators used in the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the
charts in the same manner as described above, but
this section includes series with different timing at
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19
series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the
indicators of this section by economic process and
cyclical timing is summarized in the two
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is
based on the observed behavior of the series at five
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,
August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change
Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
series.
This section also records rates of change for the
three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
(quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
rates of change for the same aggregates are
generally positively correlated, these two measures
present information about two related but distinct
aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
change, while rates of change measure the degree
as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
at the business cycle turns as well.
Part I I . OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
This part is divided into six sections which cover
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
measuring various aspects of economic activity.
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
or to selected foreign countries. The represented
variables include incomes, outputs, and
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity;
labor resources; government receipts,
expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few
key foreign countries.
Section A. National Income and Product
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the personal, business,
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
Section Al shows the gross national product,
final sales, and personal and disposable personal
income. The four major components of the gross
national p r o d u c t - p e r s o n a l consumption
expenditures, gross private domestic investment,
government purchases of goods and services, and
net exports of goods and services-are presented in
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
section A are presented in current as well as
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita
series. The national income and product accounts,
briefly defined below, are described more fully in
the Survey of Current Business, Part I,
January 1976.
Gross national product (GNP) is the market
value of final goods and services produced by the
labor and property supplied by residents of the
United States, before deduction of allowances for
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the
most comprehensive measure of aggregate
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'
income, rental income of persons, dividends,
personal interest income, and transfer payments,
less personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving. It consists
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax
payments to government,
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings,
and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included.
Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
capital goods purchased by private business and Unemployment
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
This section contains measures of the civilian
in the physical volume of inventories held by
labor
force and its major components: Total
private business. The former include all private
purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
goods are also included.
Government purchases of goods and services of worker. Also included are data on participation
(A4) is the compensation of government employees rates for a few principal segments of the labor
and purchases from business and from abroad. It force.
excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
Section D. Government Activities
government, and subsidies. It includes gross
investment by government enterprises but excludes
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surtheir current outlays. It includes net purchases of plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
used goods and excludes sales and purchases of (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
land and financial assets.
government. Also shown is a selection of series
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports from the discontinued Defense
Indicators,
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part These series measure defense activities which
of the national production; imports are not, but are influence short-term changes in the national
included in the components of GNP and are economy. Included are series relating to
therefore deducted. More detail on U.S. obligations, contracts, orders, production,
international transactions is provided in section E. shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
National income (A6) is the incomes that These series are grouped according to the time at
originate in the production of goods and services which the activities they measure occur in the
attributable to labor and property supplied by defense order-production-delivery process. Series
residents of the United States. Thus, it measures measuring activities which usually precede prothe factor costs of the goods and services pro- duction, such as contract awards and new orders,
duced. It consists of the compensation of are classified as "advance measures of defense
employees, proprietors' income, rental income of activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
coincide with production, such as employment, and
Saving (A7) is the difference between income activities which usually follow production, such as
and expenditures during an accounting period. shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
Total gross saving includes personal saving, measures of defense activity."
business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
profits and capital consumption allowances), and Section E. U.S. International Transactions
government surplus or deficit.
This group includes monthly series on exports
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
major expenditure components of GNP (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
(consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as few selected components of these aggregates. Also
percentages of GNP, and the major income shown are the balances between receipts and
components of national income (compensation of expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as and investment income.
percentages of national income.
Section F. international Comparisons
Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
The important data on price movements include
the monthly consumer and producer price indexes
and their major components. Based largely on
these series are the quarterly price indexes from
the national income and product accounts, notably
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights
reflecting the changing proportions of different
expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are
presented for the period since 1973.
The group of series on wages and productivity
consists of data on average hourly earnings and
average hourly compensation (including earnings
and other benefits) in current and constant dollars,
output per hour of work in the business sector, and
rates of change for most of these measures.
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with which we have important trade
relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European
countries in the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1973) provide
important measures of the rates of inflation in the
major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
shown beginning in 1973) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.
Basic Data
(Dec.) (NOT.)
P
I
(NOT.)
(Mar.)
P
T
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)
Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)
Dotted line indicates anticipated data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ( " I V " = fourth
quarter)
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).
Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A "
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are;
used in computing the indexes.
Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.
Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.
Rates of Change
Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.
Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.
Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.
Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3-or4-quarterspans.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, o r -
2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data2
Series title and timing classification
Unit
of
measure
1
Percent change
Annual average
1983
1984
4th Q
1984
1st Q
1985
2dQ
1985
June
1985
July
1985
Aug.
1985
June
July
July
1985
Aug.
1985
4th Q
to
1st Q
1985
istQ
2dQ
1985
I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Al. Composite Indexes
910.
920.
930.
940.
Twelve leading indicators
Four roughly coincident indicators
Six lagging indicators
•
Ratio., coincident index to lagging index
156.0
139.9
111.7
125.4
165.7
154.5
117.3
131 .8
164.5
157.7
121,9
129.3
167.3
158.5
125.0
126.8
167.4
159.5
127.5
125.2
167.8
158.9
128.1
124.0
169.0
159.3
128.3
124.2
170,1
160.0
128.3
124.7
0.7
0.3
0.2
0,2
0.7
0.4
0.
0.4
1 .
0.5
2.5
-1.9
0 .1
0.6
2.0
-1.3
108.8
102.8
104.7
130.7
110.3
105.3
110.8
136.4
109.5
103.2
112.5
135.9
110.5
102.7
113 .1
138.9
110.1
102.0
NA
136.2
110.7
101.6
NA
135.5
110.6
101 .6
NA
137.8
111 .4
101 .5
NA
138.6
-0,1
0.
NA
1 .7
0.7
-0,1
0.6
0.9
-0.5
0.5
2.
-0.4
-0.7
NA
-1.9
Hours
LrL,l
do
L,C,L...
L,C,L... Thousands....
40.1
3.0
426
40.7
3.4
366
40.5
3.4
3 96
40.4
3.3
3 90
40.3
3.2
387
40.4
3.2
392
40.3
3.2
381
40.5
3.3
375
-0.2
0.
2.8
0.5
0.1
1.6
-0.2
-0.1
1 .5
-0.2
-0.1
0.8
L,Lg,U... Ratio
L,Lg,U..., 1967=100...
0.271
0.459
131
0.504
139
0.491
139
0.472
0.488
138
0.490
139
L,L,L,.. 1967=100...
do
C.C.C...,
....do
Lg.Lg.Lg....
....do
L,L,L...
Leading Indicator Subgroups:
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916. Profitability
917. Money and financial flows
L.L.L.
L.L.L.
L.L.L..
L,L,L..
...do...
...do...
...do...
B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
B l . Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
• 1 . Average weekly hours, mfg
21. Average weekly overtime hours, mfg.1
*5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted1)
Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3
46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
• 4 1 . Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
40. Employees in goods-producing industries
90. Ratio, civilian employment to population
of working age3
Comprehensive Unemployment;
37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted*)
43. Unemployment rate (inverted4)3
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv.1)3
•91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted1)
44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.1)9
U,C,C... A.r., bil. hrs...
U.C.C.... Millions
C,C,C...
L,C,U... Thousands....
U,lg,U... Percent
L,Lg,U....
L,Lg,U...
L,Lg,U...
Lg,Lg,Lg...,
Lg,l&Lg....
ThousandsPercent
Weeks
Percent
0.002 - 0 . 0 0 3 - 0 . 0 1 3 - 0 . 0 1 9
-4.3
-4.3
0.7
1 6 8 . 1 5 176.87 178.47 180.17 181 , 2 3 181 .82 181.68 182.72
9 7 . 4 5 101.68 102.66 103.39 1 0 3 . 4 6 103.23 103.74 104.08
90 . 2 0 94.46 9 5 . 8 5
96.64 9 7 . 3 4 9 7 . 4 7 97.72 98.01
2 3 , 3 3 4 24,730 2 4 , 9 7 3 25,077 2 5 , 0 5 5 2 5 , 0 1 0 24,978 25,031
-0.1
0.5
0.3
-0.1
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.2
1.0
0.
0,
0.
0.6
0.1
0.7
-0.1
57.15
58.79
59.07
59.38
59.26
58.99
59.21
59.32
0.22
0.11
0.31
-0.12
10,717
9.6
3.8
20.0
3.8
8,539
7.5
2.8
18.2
2.4
8,233
7 .2
2.8
17.1
2.1
8,426
7.3
2.9
15.7
2.1
8,417
7.3
2.8
15.5
2.0
8,413
7.3
2.8
15.4
2.0
8,451
7.3
2.8
15.4
2.0
8,127
7.0
2.7
15.6
2.0
-0.5
0.
0.
0.
0.
3,8
0.3
0.1
-1.3
0.
-2.3
-0.1
-0.1
8.2
0.
0.1
0.
0.1
1.3
0.1
B2. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars
52. Personal income in .1972 dollars
•51. Personal income less transfer payments
in 1972 dollars
53. Wages and salaries in 1972 dollars, mining, mfg.,
and construction
C,C,C.
Industrial Production:
*47. Industrial production
73. Industrial production, durable mfrs
74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs
49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars
C,C,C... 1977-100...
C,C,C...
do
do
C,L,L...
CtC,C... A.r., bil.dol...
Capacity Utilization:
82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg3
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials3
L,C,U., Percent
L,C,U....
do..
C,C,C... A.r., bil.dol
C,C,C..,.
1534.7
1284.6
1639.3 1662.4 1663 .5 1 6 7 1 . 3
1366.5 1389.5 1399.5 1 4 0 3 . 3 1 3 9 9 . 0 1403.9 1 4 0 4 . 9
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.7
0.5
0.3
C,C,C...
do
1095.0
1177.4 1200.2 1204.0 1 2 0 9 . 1 1 2 0 5 . 6 1207,0 1 2 1 0 . 4
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.4
...do....
213.5
224.8
226.3
109.2
107.7
113.7
688.6
121.8
124.8
122.5
764.5
74.0
75.3
80.8
82.3
228.3
227.2
227.1
226.4
227.5
-0.3
0.5
0.9
-0.5
123.1
127.3
123.5
778.8
123.8
127.7
123.6
773.0
124.2
127.9
124.8
772.2
124.4
127.7
125.4
124.4
127.5
125.8
124.8
128.4
126 .1
0,
-0.2
0.3
0.3
0.7
0,2
0.6
0.3
0.1
-0.7
0.3
0.2
1.0
-0.1
81.1
81 .4
80.5
81.5
80.3
80.4
80.2
80.2
80.0
79.9
80 .2
79.8
-0.2
-0.3
0.2
-0.1
-0.6
0.1
-0.2
-1.1
8 7 . 7 4 100.56 100.75 102 .49 103.20 1 0 6 . 7 8 1 0 4 . 3 7
36.96
41.44
43.2 3
42.32
41.32
41.89
41.93
107.92
43 . 7 4
-2.3
-2 .1
3.4
3.4
1.7
1 .4
0.7
0.1
34.07
37,33
37.29
37.98
37.58
37.40
37.63
38.35
2.69
2.11
-1.63
4.12
0.55
0.72
1.89
2.87
3 2 0 . 1 2 345.44 345.44 347 .10 349.25 349.25 351 .14 3 5 4 . 0 1
54
61
47
49
44
44
44
42
0.6
-2.23
0.5
0
1.9
0.98
0.8
-2
1.9
2.18
0.5
-2
-1.1
0.17
0.6
-3
3 6 8 . 7 7 411 .30 417.83 418.93 4 2 4 . 3 8 418.38 422.24
NA
161 . 7 0 176.08 178.44 179.09 181 .11 178.98 180 .26
NA
109.3
118.2
119.3
119.2
120.1
120.7
120.4
121.3
9 7 . 8 6 108.08 109.92 111.64 114.66 113.73 113.91 116,10
...do
47.75
51 .76
52.48
53.05
54.29
53.90
53.99
55.10
A.r., bil.dol
88.3
102.3
101 ,8
103.2 104.7
Q 1966=100.
87.5
97.5
95.0
94.5
94.3
96.5
94.0
92.4
0.9
0.7
-0.2
0.2
0.2
NA
NA
0.7
1 .9
2.1
0.3
0.4
-0.1
1 .6
1 .1
1 .4
-0.5
1.3
1 .1
0.8
2.7
2.3
1 .5
-0.2
0.8
2.5
-1 .3
NA
B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
6. Mfrs.' new orders, durable goods
L,L,L. Bil. dol..
7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1972 dollars, durable goods
L,L,L...
*8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods
...do
and materials
L,L,L
...do
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods1
L.L.L....
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods'
L(Lg,U..., Bil. dol., EOP .
*32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries3 ©
L,L,L... Percent
Consumption and Trade:
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
•57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
58. Index of consumer sentiment ( u )
C,C,C...
C,C,C....
C,L,C...
C,L,U....
U,L,U....
L,C,C...
L,L,L...
Bil. dol
...do
1977*100
Bil. dol
-2.6
-1.7
0.3
NA
0.8
NA
R4. Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Net business formation
13. New business incorporations
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
*20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1972 dollars
24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods
27. Mfrs.' new orders in 1972 dollars, nondefense
capital goods
L,L,L... 1967=100...
L,L,L... Number
114.8
117.1
116.8
117.7
50,162 52,960 53,193 5 4 , 5 2 1
L,L,L... Bil. dol
L,L,L...
L,L,L...
L,L,L...
do...
do...
...... do...
116.2
118.0
119.0
NA
31.30
31.01
30.95
30.64
31 .89
13.40
22.73
15.43
26.95
14.98
26.33
15.75
26.78
14.83
26.34
15.56
27.98
11.72
13.64
13.07
14.07
13.12
14.01
15.36
26.68
31 .78
0.7
-1.0
15.36
27.20
-1.3
-4.6
0.
1.9
5.1
1.7
-5.8j
-1.6
13.54
-5.7
2.5
7.7
-6.8
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data2
Series title and timing classification
Unit
of
measure
1
Percent change
Annual average
June
to
July
1985
4th Q
to
1st Q
1985
July
to
Aug.
1985
1st Q
to
2dQ
1985
I
4th Q
1984
1st Q
1985
2dQ
1985
June
1985
July
1985
Aug.
1985
83.17
29.10
94.37
83.68
29.94
99.35
81.87
28.60
99.86
69.68
91 . 8 9
91.41
401 .67 4 0 3 . 0 0
141.5
140.6
220 .3
398.40
140.4
NA
140.7
-1.1
-0.1
NA
0.2
1,701
136.5
1,647
135.1
1,749
142.3
-3.2
- 1 .0
6.2
5.3
2.3
-10.8
30
NA
NA
-3.20
-10.5
-6.37
-17 .7
36
31
1983
1984
63.56
22.00
73.50
7 8.07
29.36
94.37
C,Lg,Lg,.,. A.r., bil. dol
304.78
353.54
368.29
3 71 . 1 6 387.83
C,Lg,Lg....
do
C,Lg,U.... 1977 = 100
C Lc C Ar bil dol
320.64 375.00
115.4
134.9
171 .0
204.9
396.32
139.1
213.8
391.54
140.2
2l3.0
1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con.
B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Con.
Business Investment Commitments—Con.:
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space
L,C,U Mil. sq.ft
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg
U,Lg,U.... Bil. dol
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.1
C,Lg,Lg... Bil dol EOP
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment
69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production, business equipment
86 Nonresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars
Residential Construction Commitments and Investment:
28. New private housing units started
*29. Building permits, new private housing units
89. Residential fixed investment in 1972 dollar^
L,L,L... A.r., thousands..
L,L,L... 1967 = 100
L,L,L... A.r., bil.dol
1,703
131.1
53.7
1,747
13 4 . 6
60.2
1,598
124.7
59.2
1,795
132.9
60.0
1,772
138.1
60.9
31.9
-0.5
'
0.6
2.9
5 3
-2.2
-4.5
0 5
9
11
97
0.8
4.5
61
-1.2
0.8
-0 .4
2 .6
0.9
3 .4
69
76
86
12.3
6.6
1 .4
-1.3
3.9
1.5
28
29
89
B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars3
*36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on
order in 1972 dollars (smoothed6)3
31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories, book value3
38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order book value3
.
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value5
70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1972 dollars5
65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value5
•77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in
1972 dollars3
78. Mfrs/ inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order, book value4
L,L,L...
do
-3.6
24.8
16.8
19.1
8.3
L,L,L...
L,L,L.,.
do
do
1.98
11.1
21 . 2 9
53.2
11 . 4 0
31 . 8
8.20
21.3
1.83
3.6
-3.68
22.6
-2.18
1.0
NA
NA
1.50
-21.6
1 .45
0.71
- 1 .68
-0.97
-0.27
1 .68
-0.46
NA
-2.14
NA
0.71
0 .70
38
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 520.28 573.43 573.43 578.77 579.66 579.66 579.75
2 5 9 . 0 2 278.97 278.97 2 8 2 . 7 2 283.48 283.48 283 .88
do
Lg,Lg,Lg,...
do
80.96
89.69
90.12
89.87
89.87
Lg,Lg,Lg....
89.69
89.26
NA
NA
NA
0.
0.1
-0.7
NA
NA
NA
0.9
1 .3
0.5
0.2
0.3
-0.3
71
70
65
1.57
NA
-0.01
NA
0.01
-0.01
77
Ug,l_g.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 208.73 217.30 217.30 214.40 2 1 3 . 6 1 2 1 3 . 6 1 213.15
NA
-0.2
NA
-1.3
-0.4
78
-0.52
239.8
-0.52
-0.17
-0.9
-0.22
-0.45
-0.4
-0.17
-0.90
-4.4
-0.29
1 .28
-1.2
0.44
98
23
99
-2.2
7.3
. 4.2
19
•
L L,L Bil, dol
1.59
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Ratio
1.54
1.56
1.57
1.56
1.58
B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices;
98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials'
23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials©
*99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)3
L,L,L... Percent
U,L,L... 1967 = 100
L,L,L... Percent
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks ©
L,L,L... 1941-43=10... 160.41 160.46
Profits and Profit Margins:
16. Corporate profits after tax
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1972 dollars
79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj
on
ftn
j n 1070 rinllarc
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg.3 •
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
1.24
258.5
1.03
-0.37
278.9
-0.19
-0.12
265.5
-0.48
- 1 .02
253.8
-0.77
f n r n n r a t p npt rash flow
IS
Cnrnnratp net rash flnw in 1972 dollars
0.10
242.9
-0.13
-0.07
2 40.7
-0.35
165.19 177.30 184.80 188.89 192.54 188.36
1 .9
L,L,L..., A.r, bil. dol
do
L,L,L...
do
L,C,L...
1 C1
do
L,L,L... Cents
L,LfL 1977=100
127.4
60.5
149.4
71 .2
4.0
98.0
145.9
68.0
195.9
92 .0
4.6
99.6
141 .0
65.0
203.9
95.0
4.3
100.1
137.0
62.4
207.0
95.4
4.2
99.4
137.4
62.3
214.9
98.8
3.7
99.5
-2.8
-4.0
1.5
0.4
-0.1
-0.7
0.3
-0.2
3.8
3.6
-0.5
0.1
16
18
79
80
15
26
Ar bil dol
318.9
1 49 .3
367.3
16 9 2
375.3
17 1 3
378.9
17 1 8
388.4
175.3
1.0
0 .3
2.5
2 .0
34
35
156.0
157.6
158.4
161.9
162.7
2.2
0.5
63
1.409
1.425
1 .438
1.462
1.473
1.7
0.8
68
215.9
95.1
212.4
88.3
213.6
86.9
216.2
86.7
215.4
85.2
1.2
-0.2
-0.4
-1.5
62
62
75 0
73 4
73.4
73.9
74.2
0.5
0.3
64
0.78
0.95
0 .87
214.0
886 .2
0.47
0.67
0 .93
219.5
917 . 2
0.42
0.90
0.83
220.0
932 . 3
0.80
0.80
0.77
224.0
952 .6
1 .10
0.59
NA
227.3
955.3
1 .65
1.15
HA
230.2
962 .8
0.78
0.71
NA
231.6
967 .8
1 .71
0.93
NA
235.1
975.0
0.38
-0.10
-0.06
1.8
2.2
0.30
-0.21
NA
1.5
0.3
85
102
104
105
106
6.482
1 .300
6.720
1.322
6.791
1 .320
6.708
1.301
6.614
1.297
1 .284
1.281
1.273
-0.083 -0.094
-0.019 -0.004
107
108
L^L... A.r.. bil. dol
77.05
37.55 1 0 0 . 3 8
62.96
77.29
77.85
L>L,L....
do
30 .85
-2.25 -53.76
3 .28
53 . 6 7
39.52
do
L,L,L...
62.72
90.15
76.36
74.12
98.42
47.73
L.L.L.... A.r., percent
3.6
8.8
15.2
9.9
12.1
5.7
L,L L A.r., bil.dol... . 403 50 482 67 5 85 73 43 5 8 9 43 8 3 5
63.55
24.58
74.96
8.8
NA - 1 3 . 5 0
NA
-2.00
78.34 - 2 6 . 5 8
NA
NA 1 2 . 2 4
-1.2
5 ,2
7.6
0.56
14.33
-8.67 -33.10
24.30
-8.27
-3,3
2.2
0.6
-25 .6
33
112
113
111
110
Cash Flows:
Id
0.26
250.7
-0.33
I L L
LL L
do
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, business sector
Lg,Lg,Lg.,.. 1977 = 100
68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product,
nonfinancial corporations
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Dollars
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
a) Actual data
Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1967=100
•b) Actual data as percent of trend3
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
do
215.7
84.9
215.4
84.4
215.9
84.2
-0.1
-0.5
0.2
-0.2
B7. Money and Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply M l 1
102 Chanee in monev SUDOIV M23
104 Change in total liquid assets3
105. Money supply Ml in 1972 dollars
*106 Monev SUDDIV M2 in 1972 dollars
Velocity of Money:
If)7 Ratin GNP to monev SUDDIV M l 3
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23
Credit
33.
112
113.
•111.
110
Flows:
Net change in mortgage debt3
Net change in business loans3
Net change in consumer installment credit3
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3
Funds raised by private nonfjnancial borrowers.
Credit Difficulties:
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted*)3 5
do
L.L.L
do
LC U
do
L,L,L...
L,L,L... Bil.dol
do
LL L
CC C
C,Lg,C...
Ratio
do
L.L.L.... Percent, EOP...
1.94
2.09
2.09
2.40
2.33
2.33
NA
NA
-0.87
-0.44
NA
0.6
0.5
0.93
0.22
NA
1.5
0.7
-0.003
-0.008
NA
NA
-0.31
0.07
39
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data'
Unit
of
measure
Series title and timing classification1
Percent change
Annual average
4th Q
1984
1983
lstQ
1985
2dQ
1985
June
1985
July
Aug.
1985
to
July
1985
July
to
Aug.
1985
4th Q
to
1st Q
1985
1st Q
2dQ
1985
I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con.
87. Money and Credit-Con,
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 3 ©
94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve 3 ©
Interest Rates:
119, Federal funds r a t e 3 ©
114. Discount rate on new Treasury bills 3 ©
116. Yield on new highgrada corporate bonds3 ©
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 ©
117. Yield on municipal bonds3 ©
118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages 1 ©
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans 3 ©
*109, Average prime rate charged by banks3 ©
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding5
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
*101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in
1972 dollars
*95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income3....:
- 5 4 5 -3,046 -3,885
4,607
1 , 0 3 4 3,730
-621
1,426
-All
1,287
-300
1,205
-252
1,107
-238
1,073
-48
-98
10.22
9.57
13.37
11 .99
10.10
13.82
12.02
12.04
8.48
8.18
12.57
11 .43
9.64
13.24
10.10
10.54
7.92
7.52
11 .88
10.91
9.04
12.38
9.90
10.20
7.53
7.01
11.33
10.36
8.69
11.89
7.88
7.05
11 .28
10.51
8.81
12.12
7.90
7.18
11.61
10.59
9.08
11.99
0.35
0.04
-0.05
0.15
0.12
0.23
0.02
0.13
0.33
0.08
0.27
-0.13
9.78
9.50
9.50
-0.28
0.
Lg,Lg,Lg.... I. dol., EOP . 376,01 4 5 2 . 3 7 452,37 476.98 499.52 499.52 505.76
NA
264.66 2 9 9 . 7 3 319.59 326.98 330.89 328.80 330.85 330.68
Lg,Lg,Lg..., Bil. dol
1 .2
0.6
NA
-0.1
L,U,U... Mil. dot
do
L,Lg,U....
L.Lg.Lg.... Percent
C.Lg.Lg....
do..
Lg,Lg,lg....
do..
C,Lg,Lg....
do..
U,Lg,Lg,...
do..
lg,Lg,Lg,..,
do..
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do...
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do...
Lg.Lg.Lg....
Lg,Lg,Lg..
do
9.09
8.62
12.25
10.84
9.51
13.11
10.64
10.79
9.27
8.97
12.63
11 .37
10.12
13.11
11.29
11.80
104.02 115.04 122.86 126 .00 127.36 126.71 127.54 128.22
-3,264
- 3 4 -3,181
-0.79
-0.7 9
-0.06
0.06
-0.48
0.13
-1.19
-1 .26
-149
-139
-0.56
-0.66
-0.69
-0.52
-0.60
-0.86
-0.20
-0,34
5.4
2.3
0.7
0.5
2.6
15.73
15.86
NA
0.13
NA
0.50
0.63
324.6
305.3
319.3
300.1
292.0
322.3
0.2
308,
309
324.7
303.3
318.8
300.9
291.4
322.8
0.2
308.8
309.0
324.3
301
317.8
300.9
292.6
323.5
0.2
308.9
307.2
323.6
294.4
317.3
301.6
291 .3
0
0
0.1
0.
-0.1
-0.6
-0.3
0
0.4
0
0
0
-0.6
-0.2
-2.4
-0.2
0.2
-0.4
1
0.6
0
0.8
-0
-0.3
-3.4
-0.4
0.9
-0.1
0.7
1.2
0
-0
0
0.7
-3.4
0
0.7
0.5
163.8
165.1
165.6
165.5
165.5
-0.1
0.
0.9
94.6
172.5
98.5
106.9
106.0
94.4
173.8
98.3
107.3
106.3
94.5
94.3
94.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
1 .2
0.4
-1.0
-0.8
-0.2
0
-0.2
0.4
0.3
111.55 113.54 1 1 4 . 1 8 115.16 115.18 114.78 115.31 115.30
100.83 105.00 1 0 5 . 9 5 1 0 6 . 7 3 106.76 106.37 106.86 107.17
10,717
8,539 8 , 2 3 3 8 , 4 2 6 8,417 8,413 8,451 8,127
3,738
3,768
3,7 83 3,891
3,767 3,600
5,257 3,932
3,051
3,155
3,192
3,148 3,125 3,192
3,632 3,107
1,444
1,503
1,442
1,559
1,335
1,374
1,829
1,499
6,837
6,913
6,797 6,741
6,964 6,644
9,075 7,057
0.5
0.5
0.5
-3.2
-0.7
13.5
3.3
0
0.3
-3
-4.4
2.1
-14.4
-4.6
0.9
0.7
2.3
0
3 .4
4.1
1 .1
0
0
-0.1
0
1.2
-4.1
-1.7
0.
-0.1
3.5
0.
0.1
-1.8
Percent
12.73
13.85
14.40
14.90
15.53
1972 = 100...
1967=100...
Percent
1967=100...
do
..do...
...do
do
....do
215.3
298.4
0.3
291
303.1
315.7
323.6
312.3
287.2
284.6
223.4
311.1
0.3
302
310.3
322.6
331
320.0
294.1
290.4
226.1
315.4
0.3
306.2
309.8
323.4
327 .4
320
295.3
290.7
229
317.4
0.3
308
309
322
316.2
319.3
298
290.5
230.6
321 .2
0.3
308
309
1977 = 100....
155.3
162.8
162.4
do
do
94.9
161 ,6
98
103.7
103.4
94.8
168.2
98.1
107.0
106.2
94.5
170.5
98.1
108.0
106.9
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
8. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
8 1 . Price Movements
310.
320.
320c.
322.
330.
335.
331.
332.
333.
334.
Implicit price deflator for gross national product
Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) ©
Change in CPI-U (S/A) 3
Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food
Producer price index (PPI), all commodities ©
PPI, industrial commodities©
PPI, crude materials for further processing
PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components
PPI, capital equipment
PPI, finished consumer goods
....do
B2. Wages and Productivity
340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
341. Real average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector
346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector ...
370. Output per hour, business sector
358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
do
...do...
C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
441.
442.
37.
444.
445.
446.
447.
Civilian labor force
Civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
Number unemployed, both sexes 16=19 years of age
Number unemployed, full-time workers
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates:
451. Males 20 years and over3
452. Females 20 years and over3
453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age3
Millions...
..do..
Thousands..,
...do
...do
do
...do
Percent..
..do...
...do.
78.5
53.1
53.5
78.3
53.7
53.9
78,3
53.9
53.8
78.2
54.6
55.6
78.1
54.6
54.3
77.9
54.6
51 .8
77.9
54.5
55.3
77,9
54.6
53.5
-0.1
0.7
1.8
-0.1
0.
-1.3
32
6
1.8
-1.9
1 .1
1.6
-49.0
-4.9
1.2
-3
2.3
3.2
O. Government Activities
D l . Receipts and Expenditures
500.
501.
502.
510.
511.
512.
Federal Government surplus or deficit3
Federal Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures
State and local government surplus or deficit3.
State and local government receipts
. . .,
State and local government expenditures.. .
A.r., bil. do!...
.do. .
..do.. .
..do....
..do....
....do. ..
-178.6 -175.8
641 . 1 704.7
819.7
880.5
44.1
52.9
478.2
523.6
43 4 . 1 470.7
•197.8 -165.1 -214.1
721.9 771 .4 733 .9
919.7 936.5 948.0
55.6
50.3
53.7
539.7 545.6 558.0
484.0 491 .9 507.7
D2. Defense Indicators
517.
525.
548.
557.
570.
564.
Defense Department gross obligations incurred
Defense Department prime contract awards
Nlfrs.' new orders, defense products
Industrial production, defense and space equipment..
Employment, defense products industries
Federal Government purchases for national defense ..
Mil. dol
...do..
...do
1977«100....
Thousands
.r., bil. dol....
20,635 22,437 25,466 21,072 25,769 29,513 31,641
NA
10,787 12,942 15,157 12,099 11,458 11,052 11 ,761
NA
6,773 7,452 7,569 7,336 8,714 1 1 , 2 3 8 9,594 10,795
143.1 157.9 164.0 167.2 171 .4 172.8 173.5 175.0
1,359
1,444
1,550
1 ,488 1,522
1,561
1,566
NA
200.5 221.5 231 .6 233 .9 241 .1
7.2
6.4
-14.6
0.4
0.3
NA
12.5
0.9
NA
-17.3
-20.2
-3.1
2.0
2 .3
1.0
22.3
-5.3
18.8
2.5
1 .8
3.1
Mil. dol...
16,722 1 8 , 1 3 7 18,649 1 8 , 5 6 7 17,544 17,43 8 17,412
3,011 3,146
2,294 2,167
3,118
2,741
2,158
3,536 3 , 8 7 5 4,013 4 , 1 2 6 3,998 3,952 3,615
21,513 2 7 , 1 3 2 26,6 82 28,137 28,802 29,425 26,630
4,3 40 4 , 6 8 9 4,314 3,750 5,005 4,842 3,342
2,937 3 , 7 8 7 3,716 4,425 4,452 4,932 4,161
-0.1
-0.4
-8.5
-9.5
-31.0
-15.6
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-0,4
-12.1
2.8
5.5
-13.1
19.1
-5.5
-16.3
-3.1
2.4
33
0.6
E. U.S. International Transactions
El. Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614.
616.
Exports, excluding military aid shipments
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Imports of automobiles and parts
...do...
...do...
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data2
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
Annual average
1982
1983
1984
lstQ
1984
2dQ
1984
3dQ
1984
4th Q
1984
3d Q
1st Q
1985
2dQ
1985
4th Q
1984
4th Q
to
1st Q
1985
1st Q
to
2dQ
1985
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con.
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
667.
668.
669.
.622.
618.
620.
651.
652.
Balance on goods and services3
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade3
Merchandise exports, adjusted
Merchandise imports, adjusted
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Income on foreign investment in the United States.
Bil. do)..
...do..,
...do...
...do..
...do...
...do,.,
0.02 - 7 . 9 8 - 2 2 . 5 3 - 1 6 . 8 5 -22.26 -29.62 -21.38 -27.
87.51 83.40 9 0 , 6 0 90.76 89.00 91 .12 91 .54 88,
87.49 91.38 113.14 107.62 111.26 120.75 112.92 116 ,
- 9 . 1 1 -15.50 -27 .07 - 2 5 . 5 7 -25.65 -32.51 -24.56 -29.
52.80 50.19 55.08 53.75 54.68 55.53 56 .36 55,
61.91 65.69 82,15 7 9 . 3 2 80 .33 88.04 80.91 85,
21.19 19.51 21.90 2 3 . 5 0 20.90 21.77 21 .44 18.
13.82 13.16 17.12 15.27 17.28 18.51 17 .44 16
-28.46
117.30
-33.00
53.24
86.25
22.10
16.52
8.24
0.5
-6.5
7.95
1.5
-8.1
-1.5
-5.
-5.77
-2.
2.8
-4.97
-1 .2
5.4
-12.0
-6.4
-1.31
-0.1
1.0
-3.47
-4.4
1 .2
17.1
1 .2
3853.1
1671.3
7,008
1663.0
2726.5
1205.3
5,054
1.7
1.0
0.8
1 .9
1.5
0.9
0.6
1 .4
0.1
-0
-0
0.4
-0.4
1 .1
0.5
0.3
1 .1
2.7
2.0
1 .8
2332.7 2361,4 2396.5 2446.5 2493.0
1064.2 1065.9 1075.4 1089.1 1102.1
320.7 317.2 3 2 6 . 3 3 3 4 . 8 339.2
178.6 177.0 1 8 2 . 9 187.0 190.1
858.3 861 ,4 8 6 6 . 5 877,3 891 .9
396.6
395.5 3 9 5 . 0 398.6 40 3.2
1153.7 1182.8 1203.8 1234.4 1261 .9
488.9 493,5 497.5 503.5 5 0 8 . 7
1.5
0.9
2.9
3.3
0.6
-0.1
1 .8
0.8
2.1
1.3
2.6
2 .2
1.2
0.9
2.5
1 .2
1 .9
1 .2
1.3
1 .7
1.7
1 .2
2.2
1 .0
88.85
A. national income ana rroaucc
Al. GNP and Personal Income
200.
50.
217.
213.
224.
225.
227.
Gross national product
Gross national product in 1972 dollars
,
Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars
Final sales in 1972 dollars
Disposable personal income
Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars
3662.8 3553.3 3644.7
1639.3 1610.9 1638.8
6,543 6,926 6,829 6,933
153 8.3 1614.5 1579.3 1618.5
2340.1 2576.8 2502.2 2554.3
1095.4 1169.0 1147.6 1165.3
4,670 4 , 9 3 9 4,865 4 , 9 3 0
...do
A.r., dollars..
3069.3
1480.0
6,370
1490.4
2180.5
1058.3
4,555
A.r., bil. dol..
...do
.do
.do..
. ...do..
do.. .
do...
do....
1984.9 2155.9 2341.8 2276.5
963.3 1009.2 1062.4 1044.1
245.1 279.8 318.8 310-.9
140.5 157.5 178.0 173.7
757.5 801 .7 8 5 6 . 9 841.3
363.1 376.3 3 9 3 . 5 387.1
982.2 1074.4 1166.1 1124.4
459.8 475.4 490.8 483 .4
...do
A.r.F dollars ...
A.r., bil.dol..
3304.8
1534.7
3694.6
1645.2
6,943
1614.6
2606.4
1176.5
4,965
3758.7
1662.4
6,998
1645.6
2644.5
1186.7
4,996
3810.6
1663.5
6,989
1644.4
2654.8
1181 .9
4,965
A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230.
231.
232.
233.
236.
238.
237.
239.
Total
Total in 1972 dollars
Durable goods
Durable goods in 1972 dollars
Nondurable goods.
Nondurable goods in 1972 dollars.
Services
Services in 1972 dollars.
. ,
240.
241.
242.
243.
245.
30.
Total
Total in 1972 dollars
Fixed investment,
..
Fixed investment in 1972 dollars.
Change in business inventories3 .
.. .
Change in.business inventories in 1972 dollars3
A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
.do.
,do.
.do.
do
.do.
.do.
414.9
194.3
441 .0
204
-26
-10.4
471.6
221.0
485.1
224.6
-13.5
-3.6
637.8
289.9
579.6
265.1
58.2
...do..
.do...
..do..
..do...
..do.
..do..
650.5
292.7
258.9
117.0
391 .5
175.7
...do...
...do..,
...do...
...do...
...do..
...do..,
19.0
2 9.7
348.4
147.6
329
118.0
627.0
283.9
576 .4
24.8
623,8
285.5
550.0
253.9
73.8
31.6
685.5
291 .9
269.7
116.2
415.8
175.7
747 .4
302.1
295.4
122.5
452.0
179.6
-8.3
12.6
336.2
139.5
344.4
126 .9
-64.2
-15.0
364.3
146.0
428.5
161 .1
637.8
646.8
643.2
50.6
20.3
662.8
300.2
591.0
269.6
71.8
30.6
289.9
601 .1
273.1
36.6
16.8
292.1
606.1
273.0
40.7
19.1
289.5
625.3
281 .2
17.9
8.3
-3
-3,4
1.7
1.3
-35.2
-13.8
1.4
0
0
0
4.1
2.3
-0.6
-0.9
3.2
3.0
-22.8
-10.8
704.4
289.5
267.6
112.2
436 .8
177.3
743.7
302.1
296 .4
123.2
447.4
178.9
761 .0
306.1
302.0
125.0
458.9
181 .1
7 80.5
310.5
315.7
129.6
46 4.8
180.9
791 .9
310.7
319.9
129.8
472.0
180.9
810 .9
313.5
324.2
129.7
486.7
183.9
2.6
1
4.5
3.7
1.3
-0.1
1 .5
0.1
1.3
0.2
1 .5
0.
2 .4
0.9
1 .3
-0.1
3.1
1 .7
-51.5
-8.3
358.9
144.9
410.4
153.2
-58.7
-11.4
362.4
144.7
421 .1
156 .2
-90 .6
-27.0
368.6
147.4
459.3
174.4
-56.0 - 7 4 . 5
-13.4 - 2 8 . 4
367.2 360.7
147 .1 143.7
423 .2 435.2
160.5 172.1
-94.0
-33.8
347.7
137.9
441 .6
171 .8
34.6
13.6
-0.4
-0.2
-7
-8.0
-18
-15.0
-1
-2
2
7 .2
-19
-5.4
-3.6
-4.0
1 .5
-0.2
1 .3
2.0
0.4
1 .1
0.2
-2.2
1.0
1 .5
0.6
2.9
2.1
-4.3
-1 .0
1 .6
-27 .2
30.8
-1.7
-3.3
2.5
17 .5
-52.4
0.6
263.7
A4. Government Purchases
of Goods and Services
260.
261.
262.
263.
266.
267.
Total
Total in 1972 dollars
Federal Government
Federal Government in 1972 dollars
State and local government
State and local government in 1972 dollars.,
A5. Foreign Trade
250.
255.
252.
256.
253.
257.
Net exports of goods and services3
Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars3..
Exports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars
220.
280.
282.
284.
286.
288.
National income
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj.
Net interest
290.
295.
292.
298.
293.
Gross saving
Business saying.
Personal saving
Government surplus or deficit3 .
Personal saving rate3. . . .
A6. National Income and Its Components
...do...
...do...
..do..
..do..
...do...
..do..
2 446.8 2646 .7 2959.9 2873.5 2944.8 2984.9 3036 .3 3076 .5 3106.5
1864.2 1984.9 2173.2 2113.4 2159.2 2191.9 2228.1 2272.7 2305.9
111.1 121.7 154.4 154.9 149.8 153.7 159.1 159.8 160.7
66.7
61.0
62.0
63.0
64.8
51.5
62.5
64.1
58.3
159.1 2 2 5 . 2 285.7 277 .4 291 .1 282.8 291 .6 2 9 2 . 3 298.5
260.9 2 5 6 . 6
2 84.1 266,8 282.8 293 .5 293.4 287 .0 274.7
do..
do..
... .do..
..do..
Percent.
408.8
43 7 . 2
543.9 551.0 556.4 556.0 550.7 532.6
551.8
498.8 515.3 525.3 535.2 543.5 557.0
388.0 4 5 3 . 6 518.6
136.0 118.1 1 5 6 . 1 152.5 144.8 164.1 163 .0 118.6 139.4
-115.3 -134.5 - 1 2 2 . 9 •107 .4 -109.2 -133.0 -142 .2 -111.4 -163.8
6.2
6.1
5.7
6.3
6.1
4.5
5.1
6.2
5.0
1 .7
1 .7
3.5
1 .7
3.1
0.
A7. Saving
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal
movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of
Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A,
seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption
adjustment,
1
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all
turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U, unclassified.
-0.1
1,9
-0.7
-9.2
-0.1
?
For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual
figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
3
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
'Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of
the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the
period.
5
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of
the span.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
Chart A l . Composite Indexes
Nov. Oct.
P T
July May
P T
Aug. Apr.
P T
Nov. Mar.
P
T
Apr. Feb.
P T
Jan. July July Nov.
P T P T
1, 5,! 8,12,19,20,29,32<36,99,Pj;lll)
(seriesSU7,51,57)
93§ Jndex of six lagging indicators
.VI (series 62, 77,91,95,101,107}
A
ksi\/G
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) In months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.
10
SEPTEMBER 1985
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued
Aug. Apr.
P T
Jan. July July Nov.
P T P
I
Apr. Feb.
P T
Index: 1367 «*l'00i
Capital investment commitments (series 12,20,29)
915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8,
!.
,. .
'
'
-
8
916. Profitability (series 19,26, SO) — ^ r r -
Money and financial flows (series 104
940, Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79
81 82 83 841985
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.
BCI> SEPTEMBER 1985
11
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components
Nov. Oct.
P
T
July May
P
T
Aug. Apr,
P
T
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Nov.
Mar.
Jan. July July
Nov.
P
T
F T P
T
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (tyurs)
Average weeklv initial claims for unemployment insurance
(thousands—inverted scale) [T7~[
in 1972 dollars, consumer goods
Net business formation (index: 1 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 )
Contracts and orders for plant
1948 49
50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67
71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985
Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 , 64, 65, and 66.
12
SEPTEMBER 1985
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
L
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
I
Chart A2, Leading Index Components—Continued
July May
P T
Aug. Apr.
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
Dec. Nov.
P T
Nov. Mar.
P
T
Jan. July July Nov.
P T P T
29, New private housing units authorized by local
building permits (index: 1967 = 100)
36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1972! dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
...,
,/U I
99. Change m sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 11941-43=10)
106, Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (bit. dot.)
Lit
111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
(ann. rate, percent)
[TJX
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985
'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 7 1 , and 72.
ItCII SEPTEMBER 1985
13
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
Jan.July July
P T P
Nov.
T
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolis
cici
47. industrial production (index; 19
1948 49 50 SI 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.
14
SEPTEMBER 1985
Bill
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
IA
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
Nov. Oct.
P T
July May
P T
Aug. Apr.
P T
Dec. Nov.
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
91. Av rage duration of unemptoyment (weeks—inverted scale)
si
Jan. July July Nov.
P T
P
T
Nov. Mar.
P
T
T*
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade in
72 dollars (ratio) i i P i i i P
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
as percent of trend (percent) hg.Lg.Lg
. Average prime rate charged
Commercia and industrial loans outstanding
(bil. dol.)
95. Ratio, consumer
j
' JiMA
> ' :1s
iUVfUUU
'
<
JTi^
fLilTJlil
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.
ItCII
SEPTEMBER
1985
15
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment
Dec.
P
Nov.
I
Nov.
P
Mar.
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
80
81
Nov
T
iMargihal Employment Adjustments!
1. Average weekly hours of production orrtonsupervfeoryworkers,
manufacturing (hours)
[TTT
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing (hours) h,c,L|
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (thousands—inverted scale)
46, Help-wanted advertising in newspapers; Iflndeic 1967=100)
Wg,U
\
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
J
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for thes^ series are shown on page 6 1 .
16
SEPTEMBER 1985
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P T
Jan. July July Nov.
P. T
P
T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
1051
100-
9590-
42. Persons engaged in nonagrtcultural activities
z
85-
80-
75-
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (mlions)
\cccA
70-
65-
28-
40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goods-producing ,
industries (mifof&)
;;
2726-
\
y
ML
W\/l
s
25242322-
\ZL
21-
AJ^\
20-
60-
,; m
90. Ratio, civilian
5958-
nug,ui
57565554-
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 and 62.
I SEPTEMBER 1985
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Jan July
Dec. Nov.
P
T
July
P I P
Nov.
T
44. Unemployment rate, persons
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 62.
18
SEPTEMBER 1985
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B2. Production and Income
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
till
to
[(fcfofcehensive Output and tacome
50. Gross national product j j l j z dollars, Q(ann,j
PW1972 dollars, minta^
53. Wages and
and constr
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 63.
K C I I SEPTEMBER 1985
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued
Apr.
Feb.
P
T
Jan. July
July
«ov.
T
P
T
80
81
P
I Industrial Production!
Industrial production
ion, durable
Industrial production
Industrial production, nondurable manufactures
/'
J
liATti
1AA>
49. Value of goods output in
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1 Capacity Utilization |
82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (percent)
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (percent)
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
20
SEPTEMBER 1985
BCD
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
C h a r t B3. C o n s u m p t i o n , Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Apr.
Feb.
P
T
Jan. July
P
July
Nov.
T
P
T
80
81
8.; Manufattfers' new brdeiilri 1972 doHars^
artel material* ifid||Mp (bii. dol;) ^
25. Change in manufacturers'unfilled orders, durabi»-gowts
industries (bit dffi
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
reiiiiii* slovyef delNries tpieliiijit): H
m
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.
ltd)
SEPTEMBER 1985
21
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued
Jan. July
P T
July
P
80
81
Nov.
T
motion and Trade
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars
(bildl)!
ff
*
iurmg and trade sales
rinlbrc (Wt\ rtnl \
75. Industrial production, consumer
(index: 197j7*100)
of retail stores in m m dollars (bit dot)
C*|QC nt rafeil tinra* fa 1079 ftoltar* (
55. Personal consumption expenditures,
tes, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
J
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.
22
SEPTEMBER 1985
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
I Formation of Business Enterprises
12. Net business sfotroatkm (index: 1967&* 100) 1 1 1 1
business incorporations (thousands
fcrbb
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in current dollars (bi!. doj.)
I Busihess Investment Commitments |
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1972 dollars ( f c
I
24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondt
capital goods industries (bil. do!.)
L
27, M a r ^ d l f r e r s ' new orders in 197? d o l l ^ nonde
fptyds industries (bil. dol.)j n - j j j |
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and i
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.
BCII SEPTEMBER 1985
23
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Jan. July July
Nov,
P T
P
T
""•, " T " ~ T ;
Apr. Feb.
P T
[Business Investment Oommitmenls-~CQn.
97. Backlog of capital appropri
I corporations, Q (bil. dot.)
1,000 manufacturing
11. Newly approved capital appropnauons, 1,000
Q .(bil. dot.)
manufacturing
61. Expenditures for rtew plant and equi
nonfarm businefclj (arm. rate, bil.
I
[ B u i p s s Investment Expenditure^!
. Machinery and equipment sates aod business
76, Industrial produc
(indeic: 1 9 7 7 = 1
C.LeiU
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
business equipment
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.
24
SEPTEMBER 1985
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P T
Nov.
P
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Mar.
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
[Business Investment Expenditures—Con,|
SO-
80-
40-
[Residential Construction Commitments and Investment [j
281 New private housing units started (ann. rate, millions)
EiEi
29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits
i| (index: l$67M-X00)
i ..
« \TT\
89. Gross private residential fixed investment in
1972J dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil, dot.)
wi
/
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
71
2
\
^
71
/
\ /
72
73
74
75
76
80 T
7060-
77
78
79 80
'_n_Ln/m
81 82
4030-
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
SEPTEMBER 1985
25
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Apr, Feb.
P
T
Nov.
P
Dec. Nov.
P
T
'I r Y
I Inventory Investment]
Jan. July
P T
Mar.
T
July Nov.
P . T
30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
lull
36. Change in manufacturing and trade inve
in 1972 dollars (ann. rate, bitJ del.;
nan
Change in manufacturing and trade inventories
ann. rate, bil. dol. MCDmovin^vgJpPerm)
38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materfete and supplies on hand
and on order, book value (bil. dol.;
LLL
f
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
• iHii.
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.
26
SEPTEMBER 1985
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
nvtiorie^on Hand gnct on; Order
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories,
1 bookw!ti|(|.do||
J| Mahpcturmg aniiad^ invefitoifes in 1972 dfars (t$; flit
•
\
'
65. Manufacturers' nyentofies, finished goods
book valtie (bil.
77, Ratio; manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1972 dollars
u1.7-
J
^
^
1.61.51.4-
ILL
78. Manufactured' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order, book value (bil. dol.)
_
280-1
260240220200180160140120100-
80-
60-
401959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.
IICII SEPTEMBER 1985
27
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Apr. Feb.
P T
Nov.
P
Dec. Nov.
P
T
to.
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
80
81
82
98. Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and
intermediate materials (percent; MCD moving; avg.—6:term)
I Sensitive Commodity Prices |
fa
ices (percent; moving
Change in sensitive materials prices
Spot market prices, raw industrial materials (index; 196/ = 1UU)
Stock prices. 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43-10) '
1 Profits and Profit Margins]
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1972 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil.
16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars, Q
(ana rate, bil. dol.)i
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
83
84
85 1986
'This is a weighted 4-term moving average {with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
'
28
SEPTEMBER 1985
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P T
Nov.
P
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Mar.
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
jProfits and Profit Margins—Con. |
IE
200160 *
120-
79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in
currerit dollairsT;l(ann,;Me, bil. d b | | ^
1
80-
40 J
Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj
1^72 dollarjs, Q (irwyate, biL doL) r^n
:[
| .... -
22 iftatio,leotj^rate domestic
domestic income, u (percent*
A>v
!
tax to corporate
\
^ 31 AJ, y-
I rrrn
Mi:
81. Ratio, corporate domestic pipts ap
a p r tax witn ivft ana "w
CCAdj to corporate domestic income, Q
Q (percent))
A
12-
10-
n
\
V\
A
I
t,
L
15. Profits after taxes per dojlar of sales, manufacturing co^Hyations, Q (cents)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit la
business sector. 6 (index: 1977
34. Corporate
(ann, p e , t^t
net cash flow in 1972 dollars, Q
|ate,|M)
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
89 1936
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.
KCII SEPTEMBER 1985
29
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Apr.
Feb.
Dec.
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
P
T
P
T
July
Nov.
T
P
T
80
81
Jan. July
P
I Unit jLabor Costs and Labor Share 1
63. Unit labor cost, business sector, Q
(index: 1977=100) g T ^
jr.
:
68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product in
1972 dollars, rtonfinancial corporations, Q (dollar)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967^100)
/s^s'
|Lg,Lg,Lgl
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income,
Q (percent)
[U17i7\ — 1
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
30
SEPTEMBER 1985
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Jan. July
P T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
July
P
Nov.
T
85. Change in money supply Ml
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
\mm
..ILk.mirm\
.u*f\w&m<M
102. Change in money Supply M2
(percent; MCb moving avg.—6-term
104. Change in total liquid assets (percent; MCD mo
j
j
JOS; Money supply M i l W d o l l a r s (bit. dol.)
107. Ratio, gross rational producttoiti
Q< ratk »i
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 7 1 .
licit SEPTEMBER 1985
31
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Apr.
Feb.
Dec.
Nov.
P
T
P
T
Jan. July
P
T
July
Nov.
P
T
33. Net change in mortgage ctebt held by fin
and life insurance companies (arm. rate, bil. dot.)
-5
(ann. rate, bil. (W.;
112. Net change in
MOD moving avg.—6-term)
dot,; MCD moving avg.
111. Change in business and
rate, percent) !|L,L,L
anciat borrowers in credit
110. Funds raised
markets, Q (arm.
Jl/uuiJL
1959
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
.
75
,
76
~
77
i .
78
:> •.ljui.i.:!..-i..LnJLn.aAi
79
80
81
82
,
83
. .•
84
•
' :; • .
85
1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 7 1 and 72.
32
SEPTEMBER
1985
IICII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
80
81
82
Current liabilities of business failures (mil. d o ! . -
loans delinquent 30 days
39. Percent of consumer i
; (percent—Inverted ^cale)
(bit. M-invertg
^borrowings from the Federal Reserve (bil. do!.)
Ug,U
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
RCII
SEPTEMBER 1985
33
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Jan. July
P T
July Nov.
P
T
rate on new issues of 91-dqg
bills (percent) I r j l g
115. Yieljlft kmg-term Treasur;
IC.U.L
average (percent)
1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.
34
SEPTEMBER 1985
lt€l>
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P
Ian. July
P
T
I
July
Nov.
P
'Iftttefest Rate$^fCon.|
. Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent)
1, I , 1 ;l y1
. i1 17
I Outstanding Debt
credit outstamSng (bil. dol.)
and industrial oans outstanding in current
bil. dol.)
loans outstanding in 1972 dollars
dit outstanding to personal
95. Ratio, consumer
, (percent) [JLJT
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
ttCII SEPTEMBER 1985
35
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes
Mar.
T
Nov.
P
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Apr. Fab.
P
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
950. Twelve leading indicator components (6-m& s p a n * — , 1-mo. s p a n - — )
100 -
50-
951. Four roughly coincident indicator component^ (6-rrtp. s p a n — - , 1-mo. s p a n — )
100-
Mnww
iwunviffuiivniv»v iftUfliiffi/tfiiii i i B i y ill!
IIM23
50-
952. Six lagging indicator Components (6-mo. sparj—•[; 1-mo. span— - )
100-1
50-
961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers
annfarturina inHnctrtoc ^Q.mn en an
I.mn cnan
100-
50-
962. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas
rwit riprlitiififf' Q-mn en an :
I.mn «nan
l^
II
100-1
50-
963. Employees on private nonagricultura! payrolls, 172-186 industries
1 .nfm cnjin
ffi.mn cnari
1
ii
w *"* r*
ft
f
B
^/
f
j
100-
50-
JLful
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
36
SEPTEMBER 1985
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart Cl- Diffusion Indexes—Continued
Apr.
Feb.
Dec.
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
P
T
P
T
Jan. July
P
T
July
Nov.
P
T
964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries
(9-mo. s p a n ^ 1-mo. span.—)
50-
oJ
965. Newly approved capital appropriations in 1972 dollars, 17
; ( 4 - 0 moving avg.-x. 1-0 span* •+)
50-
30-
966.
Industrial production, 24 industries (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo, span---)
100-
50-
0-
967. Spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials
(9-mo, s p a n , ^ t 1-mo. span---)
1001
50-
968.
Stock prices, 500 common stocks, 46-82 industries
(9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span-- - )
100-|
50-
960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies1 (4-Q span)
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
licit SEPTEMBER 1985
37
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
Nov.
P
Jan. July
P T
Mar.
T
r
July
P
Nov.
T
1
Pe^i
|
970. Expenditures for new plant
21 industries (1-Q$j#i) J
! 74. Number of employees, manufactalig a m | |
S75*!! Level of inventories, manufac
(a) Actual expemj&ires *A
971. New orders, manufaqWng (4
976; Sellinl prices,
Net profits, manufacturing a M trade
S77. Seing prices, w h o l e s a l e (
* Net sales, manufacturing m& trade
1973 74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
^
82
978, Selfing prices, retail trac^ (4-Q
83
84 1985
1973 74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84 1985
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400
business executives.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
38
SEPTEMBER 1985
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C3. Rates of Change
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
change at annual rate
index of twelve leading indicators
J: .
. . |l
coincident indicators
920c. Composite index of
930c. Composite index of six lagging indicators
47c. Index of industrial production
50c. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (1-Q
48c Fmnlnvee hours in noiwricultural establishments
n i
icAJL
•••iir...
8
51c. Personal income iess transfer
payments in 1972 {dollars
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published.
SEPTEMBER 1985
39
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A l . GNP and Personal Income
Apr.
Feb.
Dec.
Nov.
Nov.
P
T
P
T
P
Mar.
T
Jan J u l y
P
T
July
Nov.
P
T
m
4500-|
4000350030002500-
200.
t in current dollars, Q ( m rate, ML dol.)
Gross national
2000-
1500223. Personal income in current dollars
(ann. rate, bl. dol.) \
1000-
- 224. Disposable personal income in current
dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. dol.)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. dol)
18001600-
213. Final sales in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
140012001000800-
225. Disposable personal income in 1972
dolars, Q (ann. rate, bi. dol.)
600-
8-
217. Per capita gross national product
765-
(ann. rate, thous. dol.)
1999 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.
40
SEPTEMBER 1985
ItCIt
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Apr. Feb.
P T
Jan. July
P T
July Nov.
P
T
Personal consumption expenditures
n . Nondurable goods, Q
if. 4
1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 8 1 .
SEPTEMBER 1985
41
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
Apr. Feb.
P
P
T
July
July
Nov.
T
P
T
Annual rate, biljortjdofars (current))
Groiis private domestic investment—
30, Change in business inventories, Q
1959 60
61
62
63 64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72 73
74 75
76
77 78
79
80
81
82
83 84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .
42
SEPTEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
Annual rate, b i f a dollars (current) [
puittases of p d s and sgyices—
900800700600500-
400-
300-
200-
266. State and local
government, Q
262. Federal Government, Q
100 -
| Annual rate, billion
400350300250-
200-
267. State and local
150-
100-
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .
ItClft SEPTEMBER 1985
43
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I A I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A5. Foreign Trade
Jan. July
P T
Apr, Feb.
P
T
July
P
Nov.
T
Annual rate, bSton dolars (current)!
253. Imports of goods and s^rvkts, Q
252. Exports of goods land services, Q
250. Net exports o
Annual rate, billion dollars (1972)1
256. Exports of goods ami services, Q——
257. Imports of goods and services, Q
255. Met exports of goods
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
SO
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
44
SEPTEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A6. National Income and Its Components
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Mar.
T
Nov.
P
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
[Annual rate, bion dolars (current)|
Piifr
340030002600220018001400-
10008001<m
— 280. Compensation of employees, Q
600-
400360320280240-
V
286. Corporate profits b^ftgtax with inventory valuation and capjtat
consumptioh adjustpits, Q
"^^
^
200180160140-
M,
120-
V
100908070-
— 2 8 8 . Net interest, Q
50-
282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
40-
284. Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment, Q
/
30-
20-
ifeiii
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
K C i l SEPTEMBER 1985
45
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA I
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
1
Chart A7. Saving
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Jan. July
P T
Mar.
T
Nov.
P
July
P
Nov.
T
[Annual rate, bioo dollars (current)[
600 «
550500450-
r
400350-
290. Gross saving, Q
300250200-
-295. Business saving, Q;
.
298. Government surplus or deficit, Q
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83.
46
SEPTEMBER 1985
BCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income
Apr. Feb.
P T
Dec.
P
Nov.
T
Nov.
P
Mar.
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
268. State and local government purchases
\ of gdpds and services, Q
15-
265, Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q
248. Presidential fixed investment, Q
^
247. Change in business inventories, Q
251. ISIet exports of goods and services, Q
\l ' >>'(?!
^
! Percent of National Income I
80-
$4. Compensation of employees, Q
75-
70*
65-
15-
287 Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation
I and capital consumption adjustments, Q
10-
283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuationand capital consumption adjustments, Q
285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 83.
ItCII SEPTEMBER 1985
47
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
Chart B l . Price Movements
lov.
Jan.
Mar.
July
P
July
T
i Index: 1972= 1MJ
!
ij
Nov.
T
260-|
240
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
Jan.
P
July
July
Nov.
I
T
310c Implicit price deflator for gross | Percent change at annual rate]
product (1-Q span)
220
i|
;i
200-
|| 3104 Implicit price deflator for gross M
ii
§
113110031 product, y
+ 5-
180-
^ J ^ "
160-
311c. Fixed-weighted price index, ^oss domestic business product
311. fixed-weighted price index, gross
j|
domestic business product, Q ~~
1973 74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84 1985
1973 74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84 1985
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 8F
SEPTEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Jan J u l y
P
T
July
Wov.
P
T
322c. All urban consumers, food
Chart B2. Wages and Productivity
341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1
340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (current dollars)1
346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q
!
345. Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q (current doiars)
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
71
72
73
74
75
76
'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.
ItCII
SEPTEMBER 1985
49
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued
Apr.
P
F@b
T
Nov,
P
Dec, Nov.
P
T
| Wages—Con7|
Mar.
T
Jan, July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
[Percent change]
fi-month snaris (mm. rate)
Change jii average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagria
340c. Cufrent-dollar earnings
n
i gs ^Ai^JsJlWAiAi J & f S l ^ .!i! -J i i J^> Jlli. J
6-month spa«s (ann. rate)
' ;r !}
Change in average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q—
345c. Current-dolar compensation
4-quarter spans V V 7
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions—
148; Average first-year changes, Q (arm, r a t e ) . *hJs]'X
f\
349, Average changes over life of
i| contract, Q (ann. rate)
358. Output per hour, all persons,
nonfarm business sector, Q
370. Output per hour, all persons
business sector, Q
370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. 'One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable
with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.
•fc^^Bik
50
SEPTEMBER 1985 I M J )
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Jan. July
P T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
July
P
Nov.
T
441. Civilian labor forc
Civilian labor force participation rates (percent)— | H |
451. Males 20 years and over
Both s e | i i t 6 - 1 9 years of age! j
452. F e n p s 2p, years and over
Number unemployed (millions)
37. Persons unemployed
Males 20 years
andOvir
445. Females 20 years
and over
446. Both sexes 1 6 4 9 ye^rs of age
447. timber unemployed, full4tkne
workers (millions)
448. Number of persons employed part time for
economic rea$^(jrollk>ns)
u
lil;
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
1/0^^1
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 89.
SEPTEMBER 1985
51
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Dec.
P
Now.
T
Nov.
P
Mar.
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
Annual rate, b i t a doflars (current)
1300-1
1100*
900700-
500-
502. Federal Government expenditures, Q
300-
7
501. Federal Government receipts, Q
511. State and local government receipts, Q
300200-
512. State and local government expenditures, Q
510. State and local government surplus or deficit, Q
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
52
SEPTEMBER 1985
BCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I£) I
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
81
82
Ice Measures of Defense Activity!
(bit. dpi.; MCD moving avg,—
525. Defense Department prime contract awards
(Ml. dot; MCD moving avg.~~Stterm1
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (bi. dol.)
548. (Manufacturers' new orders, defense products
M. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
BCII SEPTEMBER 1985
53
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I£ ) I
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P T
Nov. Mar.
P
T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
220200180160 -
and Final Measures of Defense Activity]
$L*V7 Industrial nrnriiriWv HefprKft and snarp enninmpnt
140120-
Dtat&nent net outlays, military functions and military
588. Manufacturers' shipments,
(bil. doJ.)
1959
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 .
54
SEPTEMBER 1985
BCD
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
Apr. Feb,
P T
Dec.
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
P
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
|Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity—C
570, Employment, defense products industries (millions)
Defense ||epartment personnel (r|i|pns|r-
565, National defense purchases as a percent of GNP, Q (percent)
109876541959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 .
BCD
SEPTEMBER 1985
55
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Chart E l . Merchandise Trade
Apr. Feb.
P T
Jan. July
P T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
July
P
Nov.
T
24201612-
8-
602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments
(biLdol.)
543-
604. Exports of domestic agricultural products
(bil.dol.)
1-
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
(bldoL)
34302622181410-
9.08.07.06.05.04.0-
612. General imports (bil. del.)
3.0-
614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
2.0-
1.0-
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (bil. dol.)
0.8-
0.60.4-
0.2-
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 92.
56
SEPTEMBER 1985
BCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E
I
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Jan. July
P T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
July
P
Nov.
T
81
82
Excess of receipts
Excess of
Goods and services—
Merchandise, adjusted• • • • 4 :
•.:•
ib'-
k
['
'-
-I!
-
Balance on merchandise trade, Q
651. U.S. investment abroad, Q
Foreign investment in the United States, Q
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 93.
KCII SEPTEMBER 1985
57
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart F l . Industrial Production
Jan. July
P T
Apr. Feb.
P
T
July
P
Nov.
T
[Index: 1977** 1001
Industrial production^
721. OECD European countries
722. United Kingdom
725. West Germany
!
:
i! A
47. United States
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 94.
58
SEPTEMBER 1985
ItCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F
I
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Chart F2. Consumer Prices
Chart F3. Stock Prices
Jan. July
P T
Nov. Mar.
P
T
,:,•
July Nov.
P
T
{^•••-••••.:^(- • ••••*•• --V1 ^ r
Nov. Mar.
P
T
*<>«<
T
^
F
^
I
^
W
'
I
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
M
180+20
140-
+ 10-
^ c\;i
1200-1
1000-
P"''•"][" ""'"vj! "'¥'":'If**'"""'I'"
: ::
v -'\r::!:^
800-
^rt:!|§j j'v^gf.;.-] $ i ^ ' t i | | § ^ $ | j (/• ^§t>^ |^||S;;:4i|f^#|<-^Ife* • j M
600•,..'i
:••-. , } • - .
-••<.:
?.•'•••
n •,.
f
t i i l i i ! ; T ! , 'i 1 1 : ;!
400300-i
260220-
+ 10-
••••
••"•'/
••••";• •••'
v;
'•
••'
'{'"--"
•'-•"
. .•••--^•. - . ; ' . • . : - ; - :
'r.._..
.••••{•''•
•
J i
••.'•••-
• ) , • •
::--:\LJI.:
nyi^JKuL^r
>r!>.
:Jm>~-)i
180-
MI*;^/^^
if'*!*1'5
140-
;y.i; ijjj ;
+ 20 T
+ 10i k .
:
0^f^&:4k0> -V.
;
•••••••'•••
•
'
• : - • • ' • • ! !
;;
'
• ' " • • • • •
) * • • ' - • " • ' • •
i;
''
<•*
• • • ! l - "
'
'
'
'j j .
' ^^
„ , - ' - ! • !
.
^
•.
ii..1'
'•:
'.'
1
••'•
;
'•
;
• j .
•
'.[
J
;
\
'
''
:
f
'•'
; ; ..
I1
••
••
•
••;
.
J '
. .
L
'
'
^
|
_
L
i k • ••••^•4! • y ? S i ^ f •^^:j|.-!|^p;
t-30| # -
800-1
700600500400-
i^|-i;H.lii.:i||?f
fi^H?i!tJiiff4
^20-
p^fs}^^
0
'
' • • * ? • •
fl
.^•-.•,-^i!-.- .^-.. il-j^-J^f i i i l ]' i[4
J
+ 20-|
•^•^ j ^ - • | i.^o^i^^^^i N^^s^3^^*Sii^3^^ ^^^^*-.??^^j M^^'j^^NHMfc^^^l^
300-
60 ^
400-1
350300 250-
+10
^--s^^g^ 1=^^^--* - < ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
- ^^^^^- ^ ^^^-^^^fe^--^.-^^^^N^^^^r^ ^^^^^^ fc^^^^^^^^^^^^*4*^^^?*=i^^0-1
1973 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 ,81 82 83 84 1985
1973 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 1985
Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.
l t d ) SEPTEMBER 1985
59
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
COMPOSITE INDEXES
Year
and
month
910. Index of
twelve leading
indicators (series
1, 5, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36,
99, 106, 111)
(1967-100)
920. Index of
four roughly
coincident indicators (series
41,47,51,57)
(1967 = 100)
930. Index of
six lagging indicators (series
62, 77, 91, 95,
101, 109)
(1967=100)
940. Ratio,
coincident index
to lagging index
Leading indicator subgroups
914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12,20,
29)
(1967-100)
(1967 = 100)
915. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 8, 32, 36,
99)
(1967 = 100)
916. Profitability (series
19, 26, 80)
(1967 = 100)
917. Money and
financial flows
(series 104,106,
HI)
(1967 = 100)
1983
January . . . .
February . . .
March
145.2
147.4
150.2
134.3
133.5
134.6
115.7
115.8
114.4
116.1
115.3
117.7
106.3
107.0
107.2
97.7
99.2
101.3
97,
98,
100
127.2
129.1
129.8
April
May
June
152.5
154.4
157.3
135.6
137.9
139.8
113.5
111.0
109.8
119.5
124.2
127.3
107,
109.
110.
101.9
102.3
102.5
102,
104,
105.7
129,
129,
131.
July
'
August
September . .
158.2
158.9
160.0
140.7
140.8
143.3
109,
110.
109,
128.3
127.7
130.6
109.
108,
109.3
103.1
104.4
104.7
106.5
107.0
107.9
132.4
132.0
130.2
October
November . .
December . .
162
162
163.4
145.0
145.9
147.5
109.6
110.0
110.9
132.3
132.6
133.0
110.4
110.1
109.2
105.4
105.2
106.1
108.4
108.6
108.8
131.1
132.0
133.9
January . . . .
February . . .
March
164.5
166.5
167.2
149
150
151
109.8
111.3
112.8
E> 136.2
135.3
134.0
110.3
111.5
110.8
106.1
106.8
107.5
109.2
108.4
109.3
133.4
134.8
136.3
April
May
June
168.1
168.2
166.7
152.6
153.9
155.4
114.6
116.4
117.5
133.2
132.2
132.3
110.
110,
111.
E>107.9
107.7
106.0
110.1
110.8
110.5
136.6
138.1
138.0
July
August . . . .
September . .
163.9
164.4
165.7
155.7
156.0
156.5
118.8
119.8
121.0
131,
130.
129.
109.
110.
110.
104.6
103.6
103.8
110,
111.
112,
137,
136,
137.
October . . . .
November . .
December . .
164.2
165.2
164.1
156.5
157.7
158.9
122.0
121.7
122.1
128.3
129.6
130.1
109.
109.
rlO9.3
103.8
103.4
102.3
112.4
112.8
112.3
166.3
167.7
167.9
158
158
158.9
124.2
124.9
125.9
127.4
126.9
126.2
109.3
H>111.6
110.6
102.6
102.8
102.6
112.7
113.2
113.3
166.9
167.4
H67.8
E>160.1
rl59.6
158.9
rl26.0
rl28.3
rl28.1
H27.1
rl24.4
rl24.0
109.8
109.7
110.7
102.5
102,0
101.6
H>rll4.3
159.3
160.0
128.3
E>3128.3
rl24.2
P124.7
rll0.6
pill.4
rlO1.6
plOl.5
1984
135.5
136.0
rl36.2
1985
January . . . .
February . . .
March
April
May
June
July
August . . . .
September . .
169.0
B>x170.1
2
rll3.7
138,
138,
©139.
136.
136.
rl35.5
rl37.8
P138.6
October . . . .
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by 0 ) ; for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series.relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.
Excludes series 36, for which data are not available.
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.
60
SEPTEMBER 1985
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q
Minor Economic
Process
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Timing Class
Year
and
month
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
L,L,L
1, C, L
L.C.L
1. Average weekly hours
of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production
or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing
5. Average weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs1
(Hours)
(Thous.)
(Hours)
Comprehensive
Employment
Job Vacancies
L, Lg, U
60. Ratio, help-wanted
advertising in newspapers
to number of persons
unemployed
(Ratio)
L, Lg, U
U.C.C
46. Index of help-wanted
advertising in newspapers
(1967 = 100)
48. Employee hours in
nonagricultural establishments
(Ann. rate,
bil. hours)
1983
January
February
March
39.4
39.2
39.6
2.4
2.4
2.5
507
478
479
0.215
0.214
0.216
83
83
83
165.75
164.04
165.06
April ,
May
June
39.9
40.0
40.1
2.8
2.7
2.9
470
453
406
0.213
0.230
0.243
81
87
92
166.67
167.07
167.47
July
August
September . . .
40.3
40.3
40.7
3.0
3.1
3.3
380
408
387
0.283
0.273
0.284
100
97
98
168.29
168.25
170.68
October
November . . .
Oecember , . .
40.7
40.6
40.6
3.3
3.3
3.4
386
381
378
0.335
0.359
0.391
111
114
121
171.12
170.69
172.73
40.8
364
D345
348
0.406
0.435
0.420
123
129
124
174.01
175.02
174.40
360
348
350
0.419
0.435
0.485
124
125
134
176.89
176.31
176.99
365
358
368
0.484
0.449
0.459
138
128
129
177.06
177.49
178.87
1984
January
February
March
40.7
3.5
3.5
3.5
April
May
June
41.0
40.7
40.6
^3.6
3.4
3.4
July
August
September . . ,
40.5
40.5
40.6
3.3
3.3
3.3
October
November . . .
December . . ,
40.5
40.5
40.6
3.3
3.4
3.4
405
397
386
0.484
0.501
5>0.527
136
137
(H>145
178.40
177.37
179.63
January
February
March
40.
40.
40.
3.4
3.3
3.2
378
402
389
0.488
0.496
0.489
139
140
138
180.00
179.51
181.00
April
May
June
40.
40.
40.
3.4
3.1
3.2
387
383
392
0.463
0.464
0.488
131
131
138
180.49
181.39
rl81.82
r40.3
P40.5
3.2
p3.3
381
375
0.490
pO.487
139
pl33
rl81.68
E)pl82.72
0)41.1
.
1985
July
August
September . , .
October
November . . .
December . . ,
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
*Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
ItUI SEPTEMBER 1985
61
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q
Minor Economic
Process
Comprehensive Unemployment
Comprehensive Employment—Continued
Timing Class
Year
and
month
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Continued
U.C.C
42. Number
of persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities
(Thous.)
C.C.C
41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls
L.C.U
40. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
producing
industries
(Thous.)
{Thous.)
U, Lg, U
90. Ratio,
civilian employment to population of
working age
(Percent)
L, Lg, U
37. Number of
persons unemployed
L. Lg, U
L, Lg, U
43. Unemployment rate
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programsl
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Thous.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
91. Average
duration of
unemployment
44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Weeks)
(Percent)
1933
January
February
March
95,792
95,756
95,897
88S835
88,740
88,942
22,938
22,836
22,814
56.53
56.43
56.47
11,513
11,556
11,430
10.4
10.4
10.3
4.5
4.5
4.4
19.0
19.2
19.3
4.2
4.2
4.2
April
May
June
96,209
96,282
96,987
89,244
89,578
89,945
22,923
23,051
23,177
56.59
56.56
56.97
11,316
11,258
11,273
10.2
10.2
10.1
4.4
4.2
3.9
19.3
20.3
20.8
3.9
4.0
4.0
July
August
September . . .
97,691
98,101
98,675
90,341
90,041
91,182
23,348
23,449
23,608
57.32
57.51
57.68
10,534
10,595
10,281
9.4
9.4
9.2
3.7
3.5
3.3
21.3
20.2
20.4
3.9
3.6
3.5
October
November . . .
December . . ,
98,758
99,453
99,700
91,473
91,773
92,167
23,796
23,953
24,065
57.65
57.97
58.10
9,872
9,448
9,208
8.4
8.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
20.3
20.1
19.6
3.3
3.1
3.0
January
February
March
100,000
100,524
100,818
92,603
93,115
93,387
24,234
24,464
24,507
58.12
58.40
58.49
9,026
8,836
8,783
8.0
7.8
7.8
3.0
2.9
2.9
19.9
19.0
18.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
April
May
June
101,023
101,795
102,023
93,725
93,998
94,317
24,603
24,670
24,767
58.59
58.97
59.04
8,300
8,560
8,228
7.8
7.5
7.2
2.8
2.7
2,7
18.
18.
18.
2.5
2.5
2.3
July
August
September . . .
102,044
101,884
102,075
94,615
94,893
95,238
24,842
24,889
24,851
58.98
58.80
58.88
8,491
8,481
8,370
7.5
7.5
7.4
2.7
2.7
2.7
18.0
17.6
17.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
October
November . . .
December . . .
102,480
102,598
102,888
95,573
95,882
96,092
24,918
24,955
25,045
58.96
59.06
59.20
8,367
8,142
8,191
7.3
7.1
7.2
2.7
2.8
2.8
16.7
17.4
17.3
2.2
2.1
2.1
January
February
March
103,071
103,345
103,757
96,419
96,591
96,910
E>25,112
25,062
25,056
8,484
8,399
8,396
7.4
7.3
7.3
2.9
3.0
2,9
15.
15,
15.9
2.0
2.1
2.1
April
May
June
103,517
103,648
103,232
97,120
97,421
r97,473
25,090
25,066
r25,010
59.24
59.35
H>59.55
59.41
59.37
58.99
8,426
8,413
8,413
7.3
7.3
7,3
2.8
2.8
2.8
16.
103,737
©104,080
r97,722
E>p98,0IO
r24,978
p25,031
59.21
59.32
8,451
0)8,127
7.3
E>7.0
2.8
B>2.7
15.4
15.6
1984
1985
July
August
September . , .
15
October
November . . ,
December , . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
62
SEPTEMBER 1985
2.1
j>1.9
2.0
2.0
2.0
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
B
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
Comprehensive Output and Income
ccc
Timing Class
Year
and
month
PRODUCTION AND INCOME
50. Gross national product
in 1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot)
ccc
Industrial Production
ccc
223. Current
dollars
52. Constant
(1972) dollars
51. Personal
income less
transfer payments in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Pefsonal income
ccc
53. Wages and
salaries in 1972
dollars, mining,
mfg., and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
CCC
47. Index of
industrial
production
CCC
73. Index of
industrial
production, ,
durable manufactures
CU
74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures •
(1977 = 100)
(1977 = 100)
(1977 = 100)
CCC
49. Value of
goods output
in 1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1983
l,49l'6
2,659.7
2,656.8
2,671.8
1,264.1
1,260.9
1,265.7
1,075.5
1,071.1
1,074.8
210.5
209.4
210.1
102.5
103.3
104.2
98.7
100.1
101.8
107.5
108.2
109.4
658*9
April
May
June
1,524^8
2,693.2
2,715.8
2,734.4
1,268.0
1,275.6
1,282.6
1,077.6
1,083.0
1,091.3
210.5
210.9
212.2
105.6
106.9
107.3
103.3
104.7
105.9
110.6
112.4
113.4
68L6
July
August
September
1,550.2
2,744.9
2,759.9
2,785.0
1,283.3
1,284.9
1,291.1
1,094.2
1,096.8
1,104.1
213.1
213.5
215.9
109.8
111.6
113.7
108.6
110.9
113.1
114.9
116,2
118.0
698 ! l
October
November
December
1,572!)
2,814.9
2,834.2
2,860.4
1,306.2
1,312.1
1,321.2
1,119.1
1,121.9
1,130.8
217.2
218.4
219.8
114.4
114.8
115.5
114.4
114.9
116.3
117.9
117.9
117.5
715.* 5
January
February
March
1,610*9
2,897.4
2,923.5
2,940.6
1,332.8
1,341.7
1 ?dd n
1,144.1
1,153.1
118.4
119.3
1
90. 11
1CU
119.6
121.0
119.5
121.0
1 1 EC 0
1 , IJJ.0
221.9
223.1
99? 7
ccc. /
1
99 9
LCC . C
101 C
ic i . 0
April
May
June
1,638.8
2,968.5
2,978.8
3,006.5
1,354,2
1,358.9
1,371.6
1,165.0
1,169.7
1,181.8
224.6
224.7
225.6
120.7
121.3
122.3
123.3
123.8
124.7
121.9
122.3
123.2
767.4'
July
August
September
1,645:2
3,027.7
3,045.8
3,068.3
1,373.1
1,373.2
1,380.3
1,183.9
1,183.9
1,191.9
225.5
225.7
225.1
123.2
123.5
123.3
126.4
127.7
127.2
123.9
123.2
123.1
766.'8
October
November
December
1,662^4
3,079.3
3,097.5
3,111.8
1,381.5
1,389.0
1,397.9
1,191.8
1,198.4
1,210.3
224.5
226.3
228.0
122.7
123.4
123.3
127.0
127.5
127.4
123.3
123.8
123.4
E>778/8
1,663.5
3,129.2
3,146.0
3,156.2
1,397.0
1,400.7
1,400.9
1,201.6
1,204.6
1,205.8
0)229.0
227.8
228.2
123.6
123.7
124.0
127.8
127.2
128.0
123.2
123.8
123.9
773\6
H>rl,67il3.
r3,184.7
r3,163.7
r3,175.7
E>rl,411.7
rl,399.2
rl,399.0
jH)rl,216.8
rl,204.8
r1 l1 ) ?D^
fi
CUD.U
227.4
227.2
227.1
124.1
H24.1
rl24.4
128.2
rl27.9
rl27.7
124.3
rl24.7
r3,189.7
[H>p3,198.9
rl,403.9
pi,404.9
r226.4
P227.5
rl24>4
(H)pl24.8
rl27.5
g>pl28.4
Vl25.8
' |H>Pl26.1
January
February
March
1984
744.9
1985
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
rl,207.0
pi,210.4
r772.2
r iCD • *r
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.
1
"Flash" estimate.
K C I I SEPTEMBER 1985
63
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
• H
Mm
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
PRODUCTION AND
INCOME—Continued
Capacity Utilization
Timing Class
L,C f U
Year
and
month
Q
82. Capacity
utilization rate,
manufacturing
Orders and Deliveries
L.C.U
84. Capacity
utilization rate,
materials
L, L,L
(Percent)
L.L.L
Manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
7. Constant
(1972) dollars
6. Current
dollars
(Percent)
CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
L.L.L
8. Manufacturers' new
orders in 1972
dollars, consumer goods
and materials
(Bil. dol.)
L, L, L
25. Change in
manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
(Bil. dol.)
U.L
L, Lg, U
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries (u)
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil. dol.)
1983
69.5
70.1
70.9
70.7
71.4
72.1
82.16
77.17
78.99
35.17
32.78
33.57
31.29
31.53
31.61
4.06
-0.82
-0.42
291.86
291.04
290.62
41
42
50
April
May
June
71.8
72.6
73.2
72.9
73.8
74.0
82.40
82.87
88.87
34.96
35.04
37.42
32.03
33.06
33.84
2.11
1.28
4.16
292.73
294.01
298,17
52
52
52
July
August
September
74.6
75.7
76.9
75.8
76.8
78.4
87.96
88.80
91.58
36.94
37.26
38.38
34.38
35.02
35.17
3.33
2.53
3.22
301.50
304.04
307.25
52
61
60
October
November
December
77.3
77.3
77.6
79.0
79.3
79.6
95.40
98.04
98.63
39.93
40.97
41.11
36.32
37.07
37.55
5.85
5.13
1.89
313.10
318.24
320.12
64
59
67
January
February
March
79.2
80.0
80.4
81.6
82.1
82.5
99.55
101.79
104.45
41.51
42.24
43.18
38.33
38.30
37.21
4.38
5.44
324.50
329.94
338.09
63
68
0)72
April .
May
June .
80.7
80.7
81.1
82.6
82.6
82.8
97.31
100.95
98.34
40.13
41.65
40.47
37.16
37.42
1.85
4.06
n . fii
U
Dl
339.93
343.99
71
70
OHH-. OU
oo
July
August
September
81.7
0)81.8
81.3
83.0
B>83.1
82.7
101.98
101.86
98.21
41.98
41.85
40.32
37.51
37.39
36.21
4.14
1.61
0.00
348.73
350.34
350.34
60
54
58
•[October
November
i December
81.1
81.2
80.9
81.3
81.5
81.3
96.51
104.43
101.31
39.65
42.78
41.52
36.98
37.68
37.20
-4.30
2.04
-2.63
346.04
348.08
345.44
52
50
45
80.7
80.4
80.5
81.7
81.5
81.4
105.45
102.47
99.54
43.20
41.86
40.60
0)39.23
37.82
36.90
3.48
0.75
-2.58
348.92
349.67
347.10
47
48
46
April .
May
June
80.5
r80.3
r80 t 2
80.9
r80.1
r80.2
99.84
102.97
rlO6.78
40.70
41.86
r43.23
37.47
37.88
37.40
-2.22
0.25
r4.12
344.87
345.13
r349.25
44
44
44
July
August . .
September
r80.0
P80.2
r79.9
p79.8
rlO4.37
0)plO7.92
r42.32
|H>p43.74
r37.63
P38.35
rl.89
p2.87
r351.14
E)P354.O1
44
42
January
February
March .
....
1984
©8.14
OAA
en
1985
January
February
March
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.
64
SEPTEMBER 1985
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
| 3
• 1
l i l
CONSUMPTION, TRADE, OROERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continued
Minor Economic
Process
Formation of Business Enterprises
Consumption and Trade
Timing Class
C,C,C
C,C,C
Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month
56. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)
57. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. doi.)
C, L, C
75.Index of
industrial
production,
consumer
goods
C.L.U
U, L, U
Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars
(1977 = 100)
(Mil. doi.)
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
59. Constant
L.CC
55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles
L.L.L
58. index of
consumer
sentiment ©
L.L.L
12. Index of
net business
formation
L, L,L
13. Number of
new business
incorporationsl
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1st Q
1966=100)
(1967-100)
(Number)
1983
January
February
March
347,323
345,215
350,370
154,166
153,092
155,596
103.0
103.7
104.5
92,041
92,159
94,231
45,542
45,646
46,534
78\4
70.4
74.6
80 8
111.4
113.3
112 7
49,999
48,296
48 032
April
May
June
353,371
360,313
368,553
155,840
159,750
163,430
106.2
107.8
108 8
95,073
96,827
98 291
46,742
47,464
48,158
88*. 1
89.1
93.3
92 2
112.0
114.8
116 4
48,903
50,211
50 992
July
August
September
370,864
374,813
380,348
162,746
163,623
165,068
110.3
112.2
113.4
98,651
98,590
99,534
48,169
47,999
48,364
9CL2
93.9
90.9
89.9
115.2
114.4
115.8
48,601
52,828
50,445
October
November
December
385,163
389,775
399,089
166,438
168,593
172,020
113.6
113.6
114.4
100,980
102,202
102,867
48,996
49,613
49,815
96.* 3
89.3
91.1
94.2
118.0
117.8
116.3
50,441
51,642
51,557
January
February
March
402,489
402,395
404,612
173,254
172,231
172,733
116.2
116.9
117.3
106,136
105,726
104,525
51,076
50,928
50,228
101.9
100.1
97.4
0)101.0
115.9
117.2
116.9
53,044
53,591
53,424
April
May
408,342
412,524
413,976
174,104
177,265
178,302
118.3
117.7
118.5
107,443
107,941
109,085
51,630
52,020
52,698
104.6
96.1
98.1
95.5
117.5
115.7
117.0
53,933
51,166
54,729
412,233
413,300
412,276
176,575
177,143
176,087
119.1
118.4
118.3
107,563
107,396
108,373
51,713
51,509
51,878
100.9
96.6
99.1
100.9
115.8
119.1
E)119.7
52,092
51,723
52,237
414,243
417,635
421,613
176,602
178,276
180,437
118.5
119.6
119.7
108,974
110,255
110,519
51,991
52,628
52,829
loi.'s
96.3
95.7
92.9
117.7
116.0
116.6
52,587
53,490
53,503
417,350
418,667
420,776
178,600
179,051
179,626
118.8
119.1
119.8
110,972 •
112,096
111,854
52,844
53,303
53,011
103.2
96.0
93.7
93.7
117.8
118.7
116.6
53,266
54,533
p55,764
426,472
E> 428,275
r418,378
rl81,644
E>rl82,711
rl78,984
119.5
rl20.0
r!20.7
115,351
114,884
rll3,730
54,539
54,422
r53,900
94.6
91.8
96.5
116.6
114.3
117.6
(NA)
[H)rlO4.7
p422,243
(NA)
pl80,262
(NA)
rl20.4
E>P121.3
rll3,912
E>pll6,102
r53,987
H>P55,1O3
94.0
92.4
118.0
P119.0
1984
June
July
August
September
,
October
November
December
1985
l&nuzry
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
, November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23.
S e r i e s 13 reached i t s high value (57,507) in December 1982.
SEPTEMBER 1985
65
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
| H
Minor Economic
Process
Business Investment Commitments
Timing Class
L.L.L
L, I, L
Contracts and orders for
plant and equipment
Year
and
month
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued
10. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)
20. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Bil. dol.)
U,L
L, L,L
Manufacturers' new orders,
nondefense capital goods industries
24. Current
dollars
(Bil. dot.)
U, Lg. U
L, C. U
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings1
27. Constant
(1972) dollars
Square feet of
floor space
(Bil. dol.)
(Millions)
Square meters of
floor space»
(Millions)
1983
11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
C Lg, Lg
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
Revised 3
Revised 3
...
January
February
March
23.72
24.07
23.82
11.85
11.77
12.59
20.94
19.18
20.13
10.67
9.68
11.01
61.13
58.88
55.37
5.68
5.47
5.14
20.07
April
May
June
26.07
26.57
27.49
13.32
13.08
14.15
22.26
21.50
23.69
11.68
10.91
12.54
57.11
57.60
63.13
5.31
5.35
5.86
20!87
July
August
September
25.73
27.36
28.91
12.92
13.51
15.04
22.15
22.96
24.99
11.41
11.65
13.38
63.03
63.93
70.18
5.86
5.94
6.52
22'.78
October
November
December
29.28
28.57
28.59
14.60
13.90
14.04
25.38
24.33
25.23
12.95
12.10
12.62
71.15
73.07
68.14
6.61
6.79
6.33
24'.26
January
February
March
29.37
30.98
30.97
14.85
15.55
15.75
25.72
27.02
26.76
13.32
13.89
14.00
72.72
64.41
74.95
6.76
5.98
6.96
26.92
April
May . . .
June
30.22
33.30
31.86
14.94
16.56
15.95
26.33
28.56
27.72
13.33
14.61
14.25
79.78
82.49
74.90
7.41
7.66
6.96
H>34*.i2
July
August
September
33.16
r31.17
31.59
15.62
rl5.46
15.58
28.14
26.74
27.39
13.57
13.65
13.86
79.55
82165
75.84
7.39
7.68
7.05
27.31
7.34
7.78
8.06
29.10
69! 60
70.58
72.57
73.50
1984
78.46
89.18
92.06
30.29
31.60
31.15
14.88
15.86
14.19
25.26
26.84
26.89
12.83
13.92
12.47
79.04
83.75
86.73
27.34
E>33.73
31 77
12.80
[H> 18.55
15 89
23.63
0)29.49
27 21
11.31
E>16.85
14 06
81.14
82.48
87.41
7.54
7.66
8.12
29.94
April
May
June
29.99
30.03
r31.89
14.13
14.79
r]L5.56
25.46
25.59
r27.98
12.33
13.02
rl4.01
I©91.95
83.99
69.68
8.54
7.80
6.47
P28.60
July
August
September
r32.11
p31.78
rl5.36
plS.36
r26.68
P27.2O
rl3.21
P13.54
91.89
91.41
E>8.54
8.49
October
November
December
94.37
1985
January
February
March
0>p99'.86
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
lr
rhis is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
66
SEPTEMBER 1985 I N ] I I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
J J
Minor Economic
Process
Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment
Business Investment Expenditures
Timing Class
Year
and
month
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued
.
C Lg, Lg
C, Lg, Lg
61. Expenditures for new
plant and equipment by U.S.
nonfarm business
69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business construction
expenditures*
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
C, Lg, U
76. Index of
industrial production, business equipment
' (1977 = 100)
' C, Lg, C
Lg, Lg, Lg
C, Lg, C
Gross private nonresidential
" fixed investment in 1972 dollars
86. Total
87. Structures
(Ann. rate,
. bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L, L, L
L, L, L
28. New private housing
units started
29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
(1967-100)
L.L,L
89. Gross private residential
fixed investment
in 1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised1
1983
310.84
300.99
311.35
109.2
109.4
295.24
312.62
303.44
324.11
308!79
161.6
49.0
112.5
1,605
1,675
1,635
115.2
118.8
119.2
46.2
111.5
112.4
113.4
165!3
48*. 1
-117l2
1,512
1,780
1,716
126.5
134.8
142.9
53!4
318.69
321.45
327.37
: 114.6
117.7
120.8
172.6
48!3
124! 3
1,775
1,907
1,677
145.0
138.4
128.0
57*.2
325!75
326.58
337.58
352.66
120.7
121.7
123.0
184.5
51.4
133! i
1,696
1,748
1,704
138.6
134.7
131.4
57.*8
January
February
March
344.25
347.76
360.86
127.1
128.5
130.4
1,933
337!95
19^3
54! i
139.2
0)2,208
1,700
146.7
E>157.6
138.7
60.6
April
May
June
349.97
360.32
372.34
380.00
131.2
133.3
135.5
202.9
56!8
146.6
1,949
1,787
1,837
142.6
140.7
143.9
60,8
July
August
September
361 '.48
372.18
379.37
393.90
137.0
139.1
139.2
209! 5
57!i
152^4
1,730
1,590
1,669
126.9
123.0
121.0
6o!i
October
November
December
368!29
387.81
392.33
E>408.82
139.1
139.8
138.4
21^8
59!i
154'.4
1,564
1,600
1,630
117.8
128.9
127.5
59.2
37l!l6
376.70
390.74
407.17
. 140.4
140.0
140.2
213!6
60.8
152.2
1,849
1,647
1,889
130.4
129.5
138.8
6o!6
0)387.83
403.73
r398.28
r403.00
0)142.0
rl41.9
•T140.6
0>r22O.3
G>r62.1
H>rl58.2
1,933
1,681
rl,701
135.9
141.8
136.5
E>r60.9
a389.*54
P398.40
(NA)
rl40.4
P140.7
rl,647
pi,749
135.1
142.3
January
February
March . /
289!36
April
May
June
;
July
August
September
October
November ,
December
,.
110.0
1984
1985
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
:
.
a387.40
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
^ee "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
SEPTEMBER 1985
67
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
NVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
Inventories on Hand and on Order
Inventory Investment
L, L, L
30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
UL.L
L.L.L
36. Change in mfg, and trade
inventories on hand and on
order in 1972 dollars
Actual
Smoothed'
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
31. Change
in mfg. and
trade inventories, book
value
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L, L, L
38. Change in
mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order
(Bil. dol.)
Lg. Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Book
value
(Bil. dol.)
70. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Bil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
65. Manufacturers' inventories,
finished
goods, book
value
77. Ratio,
mfg. and
trade inventories to
sales in
1972 dollars
L. Lg, Lg
78. Mfrs.'
inventories,
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order
(Ratio)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
1983
-30.0
-7.4
-38.6
-0.04
1.00
0.54
506.71
506.10
502.88
257.82
257.60
256.06
84.37
83.74
82.68
1.67
1.68
1.65
191.29
192.29
192.83
2.3
7.5
8.9
-0.02
0.64
2.09
503.07
503.70
504.44
255.89
256.22
255.65
82.32
82.06
81.86
1.64
1.60
1.56
192,81
193.45
195.54
6.63
10.44
13.84
10
30
39.1
1.77
2.96
1.57
505.33
507.85
511.10
255.86
256.31
256.78
82.14
81.70
81.45
1.57
1.57
1.56
197.31
200.27
201.84
20.28
19.19
13.51
16.32
17.07
17.45
24.8
36.6
48.7
E>3.02
1.96
1.91
513.17
516.22
520.28
257.29
258.06
259.02
81.20
81.55
80.96
1.55
1.53
1.51
204.86
206.82
208.73
H>31.6
27.55
E)47.38
25.36
18.87
24.78
31.46
2.81
2.82
2.35
524.73
532.14
538.82
260.17
263.23
265.12
81.16
81.90
83.14
1.50
1.53
1.53
211.54
214.36
216.71
April
May
June
20.3
39.68
28.45
-6.72
E>35.45
34.32
25.82
85.3
54.9
23.0
1.81
1.66
-0.22
545.93
550.50
552.42
267.98
270.03
270.03
84.14
85.11
86.38
1.54
1.52
1.51
218.52
220.18
219.97
July
August
September . . .
30.6
27.41
19.49
16.56
18.42
14.89
17.27
57.0
54.
45.
2.61
-0.18
-0.05
557.17
561.72
565.48
272.11
274.34
276.10
86.95
87.80
88.55
1.54
1.55
1.57
©222.58
222.40
222.35
October
November . . .
December . . .
16.8
8.39
0.07
-5.72
17.98
11.58
4.63
39.3
29.9
26.3
-2.43
-1.56
-1.06
568.75
571.24
573.43
277.64
278.27
278.97
88.89
89.27
89.69
1.57
1.56
1.55
219.92
218.36
217.30
19.1
22.68
19.98
-5.82
3.30
9.00
12.30
28.4
37.7
-2.1
0.65
-0.48
-3.07
575.80
578.94
578.77
280.39
282.33
282.72
89.69
89.86
90.12
1.57
1.58
1.57
217,95
217.47
214.40
-0.94
-1.54
1.68
0)580.20
577.78
r579.66
r283.44
r282.80
r283.48
90.12
H>90.13
89.87
1.56
1.55
E>1.58
213.46
211.93
213.61
p-0.46
(NA)
P579.75
(NA)
[H)p283.88
89.26
(NA)
pi.57
(NA)
P213.15
January . .
February .
March . . .
-16.5
-14.18
2,20
-15.07
April . . . .
May . . . .
June
-6.1
2.99
9.18
0.82
July . . . .
August . .
September
0.9
16.79
18.22
12.22
October . .
November
December
7.2
-24.16
-17.24
-9.98
-6
-2
1
1984
January
February
March
1985
January
February
March . . . . . .
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
8.3
r2.94
r8.99
r-13.15
r4.19
r0.18
r-3.68
17.2
-29.0
r22.6
pi.88
(NA)
p-2.18
(NA)
pl.O
(NA)
(NA)
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27.
1
This s e r i e s i s a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
SEPTEMBER 1985
Hill
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q j
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
Stock
Prices
Sensitive Commodity Prices
L.L.L
98. Change in
producer prices
for 28 sensitive
crude and
intermediate
materials
(Percent)
23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrial,
materials' @
(1967 = 100)
U,L
U,L
U, L, L
99. Change in sensitive materials
prices
Smoothed2
Actual
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
(Percent)
(Percent)
1.40
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks @
Profits and Profit Margins
L.L.L
L.L.L
Corporate profits after tax
16. Current
dollars
18. Constant
(1972) dollars
L, C,L
L.CL
Corporate profits after tax
with IVA and CCAdj3
79. Current
dollars
80. Constant
(1972) dollars
L.L.L
22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax to corporate domestic
income
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Percent)
144.27
146.80
151.88
102^6
4&\9
120*6
57.3
5*.3
(1941-43 = 10)
1983
0)2.53
1.72
232.1
241.3
248.8
0)2.49
1.80
-0.04
0.78
1.61
0.04
1.62
2.28
253.2
251.5
250.5
0.53
0.66
1.09
H> 1.75
1.30
0.88
157.71
164.10
166.39
123.4
58*9
14l'.9
67l9
6*3
July
August
September
0.81
1.24
-0.43
256.0
265.2
267.9
1.04
1.71
0.08
0.85
1.10
1.11
166.96
162.42
167.16
142*6
67*9
160.* 2
76\5
7.1
October
November
December
1.60
1.08
0.84
273.4
279.8
282.4
1.43
1,24
0.70
1.01
1.00
1.02
167.65
165.23
164.36
141.' 1
66*4
175.5
83*0
6*9
January
February
March
..
-1.09
0.97
0.29
283.6
283.6
289.2
-0.45
0.53
0,73
0.81
0.38
0.26
166.39
157.25
157.44
H>150.*6
B>7i."6
184.7
87*5
7*1
April .
May
June
-0.29
-0.71
-1.04
288.6
0)289.5
286.2
-0.20
-0.28
-0.89
0.31
0.22
-0.19
157.60
156.55
153.12
150.2
70*3
195^2
92] i
(8)7*1
July
August
September
-1.54
-1.20
0.54
280.1
275.6
274.0
-1.43
-1.12
0.13
-0.66
-1.01
-0.98
151.08
164.42
166.11
141.'7
65.7
199^8
93*6
h'.s
October
November
December
-0.13
0.17
-0.40
266.4
268.3
261.9
-0.88
0.30
-0.93
-0.72
-0.39
-0.33
164.82
166.27
164.48
141.6
65.6
203.9
95.0
-0.71
-1.72
-0.62
255.8
253.1
252.4
-1.06
-1.20
-0.39
-0.53
-0.81
-0.97
171.61
180.88
179.42
137.0
62~4
207.0
95.4
6.2
r-0.28
rO.97
0.10
257.1
252.0
242.9
0.39
-0.09
-1.00
-0.64
-0.22
-0.13
180.62
184.90
188.89
rl37.4
r62.3
H>r214.9
[H>r98.8
rf.O
-0.07
-0.52
240.7
239.8
"238,0
-0.31
-0.40
-0.35
-0.52
0)192.54
188.31
5
183.69
1.56
January
February
March
April
May
June
1984
1985
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
l
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
See footnote 1 on page 68. 3IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
''Average for September 1-24.
5
Average for September 4, 11, IS, and 25.
2
inn
SEPTEMBER 1985
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
g j
Minor Economic
Process
Cash Flows
Profits and Profit Margins—Continued
Timing Class
Year
and
month
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued
L,L,L
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share
U,L,L
L,L, L
L,L,L
81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp. domestic
income1
15. Profits after
taxes per dollar
of sales, manufacturing corporations
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit
labor cost,
nonfarm business sector
(Percent)
(Cents)
(1977 = 100)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1977-100)
156!8
L, L, L
Corporate net cash flow
34. Current
dollars
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg,»Lg
63. Index of
unit labor cost,
business sector
68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial corporations
35. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Dollars)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
62. Index of labor cost per unit
of output, manufacturing
Actual data
Actual data
as a percent
of trend
(1967 = 100)
(Percent)
64. Compensation of employees as a
percent of national income
(Percent)
1983
January
February
March
6*. 5
^3
96\4
280.0
13CK9
April
May
June
7. # 5
4*.6
97.9
31CL5
July .
August
September
Q.'l
4^2
9&\7
October
November
December
8.9
i!s
9a
4*.9
1.421
221.9
220.2
219.0
100.3
99.0
98.0
7616
146! 2
1.408
218.4
216.7
216.5
97.3
96.1
95.6
75.2
339.6
159.2
1.400
214.3
212.0
211.0
94.1
92.7
91.8
74*.5
9&\8
345! 6
16CK9
156!s
1.408
211.9
213.5
215.1
91.8
92.0
92.3
74*.3
9&\7
360'.4
167^5
157.7
1.415
213.0
213.1
90.9
. 90.5
1984
January
February
March
73^5
QQ Q
O? . O
April
May
June
,
9!6
E>4.'9
99.*8
366^7
16913
156\5
1.414
212.9
212.5
211.7
89.6
89.0
88.2
73.3
July
August
September
9*.7
i.'i
99^7
366'.7
168!i
158.6
1.434
210.5
210.8
211.3
87.3
87.0
" 86.8
73^4
October
November
December
9^9
4^3
E>ioo!i
375*.3
17K3
15814
1.438
212.1
213.2
215.6
86.7
86.8
87.3
73^4
<L9
4^2
99.4
378^9
ll'l.S
161.*9
1.462
(H>216.4
216.0
216.1
87.2
86.7
86.3
73^9
0)10.1
3.7
99.5
[H>r388.*4
[H>162.7
fi>1.473
215.1
r215.3
85.5
r85.2
r84.9
r84.4
p84.2
1985
January
February
March
April
May
June
. . .
[H>rl75!3
July
August
September
r215.7
r215.4
P215.9
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.
l
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment,
70
SEPTEMBER 1985
B>74.2
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q |
Minor Economic
Process
Money
Timing Class
L, C. U
Year .
and
month
MONEY AND CREDIT
85. Change
in money
supply M l
(Percent)
102. Change
in money
supply M2
(Percent)
UL,L
104, Change
in total liquid
assets
(Percent)
Velocity of Money
L, L, L
105. Money
supply Ml in
1972 dollars
(Bil. dol.)
UL.L
106. Money
supply M2 in
1972 dollars
(Bil. dol.)
C.C.C
107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
Ml
(Ratio)
Credit Flows
C Lg, C
108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
M2
(Ratio)
L.L.L
L, L, L
33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
112. Net change
in business loans
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1983
January
February
March
0.75
1.18
1.16
0)2.78
1.83
0.82
!
0.98
.0.74
206.7
209.2
211.4
857.2
873.5
879.7
6.476
1.324
1.299
1.295
45.77
40.99
-40.55
46.25
-1.91
10.98
April
May
June
0.69
1.32
0.81
0.70
0.78
0.68
0.87
0.66
0.82
211.5
213.4
214.6
880.0
883.2
887.1
6.469
1.296
1.297
1.297
1.30
-38.76
32.99
-46.07
-45.98
3.02
July
August
September . ...
0.96
0.70
0.41
0.61
0.52
0.63
1.01
0.88
0.71
215.8
216.6
216.7
889.0
890.6
893.0
6.462
1.294
1.295
1.298
63.30
70.21
5.22
-3.26
14.05
-0.50
October
November , . .
December . . .
0.67
0.42
0.34
0.90
0.64
0.49
0.53
0.89
1.13
217.4
217.6
217.7
898.0
900.7
902.4
6.523
1.301
1.301
1.307
81.37
78.73
110.02
-8.98
18.46
53.30
January
February
March
0.64
0.53
0.58
0.61
0.67
0.55
0.72
0.79
1.17
217.7
218.0
218.7
902.4
904.8
907.1
6.650
316
319
1.319
78.56
89.56
110.09
0.16
55.91
0)110.20
April
May
June
0.35
0.61
0.88
0.54
0.63
0.63
0.97
1.09
1.15
218,
219,
221.0
908.2
912.4
916.3
6.712
1.325
1.321
1.325
129.68
131.71
113.03
87.13
81.90
93.26
July
August
September . . .
-0.07
0.37
0.47
0.48
0.55
0.68
1.05
0.79
0.89
220.1
220.0
220.3
917.8
919.0
922.0
6.728
.328
.328
0)1.329
113.89
109.14
E)140.08
38.29
15.88
42.76
October
-0.58
1.00
0.85
0.47
1.16
1.08
0.62
r0.81
1.07
218.4
220.1
221.5
923.7
932.7
940.4
5.791
1.328
1.320
1.312
87.59
70.76
30.52
52,49
57.98
8.10
0.75
1.19
0.47
1.15
0.92
0.34
0.64
0.88
0.78
222.7
224.6
224.6
949.4
954.8
953.6
6.708
1.304
1.299
1.299
r86.58
r44.72
rl00.56
38.95
21.36
32.24
0.49
,17
,65
-0.08
0.71
1.15
0.08
pO.50
(NA)
224.8
227.0
230.2
949.2
954.0
962.8
r6.614
rl.312
1.294
r1.284
r90.41
r66.08
r77.05
r32.30
r-53.76
rO,78
0>pl.71
M.49
rO.71
pO.93
231.6
0>p235.1
r967.8
0)p975.O
rl.281
pi.273
P63.55
1984
November . . .
December . . .
1985
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August . .
September
,
(NA)
14.71
r24.58
p-2.00
October . .
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.
1
Average for weeks ended September 2 and S
BCII SEPTEMBER 1985
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
L.L.L
113. Net change
in consumer
installment
credit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L, L,L
111. Change in
business and
consumer credit
outstanding
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Bank Reserves
Credit Difficulties
Credit Flows—Continued
Timing Class
MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued
L.L.L
L.L.L
110. Funds
raised by private
nonfinancial
borrowers in
credit markets
14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures (u)
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
L.L.L
L.U.U
Interest Rates
L, Lg, U
39. Percent
of consumer
installment
loans delinquent 30 days
and over
93. Free
reserves ©
94. Member
bank borrowings from the
Federal
Reserve (u)
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
L, Lg, Lg
119. Federal
funds rate (u)
(Percent)
C, Lg, Lg
114. Discount
rate on new
issues of 91-day
Treasury bills 0
(Percent)
1
Revised
1983
January
February
March
23.30
21.24
40.02
8.4
2.9
0.1
295,504
2,158.1
1,086.4
1,154.7
April
May
June
33.78
35.38
47.28
-0.6
-3.8
5.5
396,432
1,125.6
920.0
2,188.6
July
August
September . . .
53.48
54.48
44.68
8.9
9.9
2.6
396,536
October
November . . .
December . . .
73.66
69.02
76.45
8.6
11.7
14.3
525,532
63.20
74.26
71.15
10.3
15.1
20.3
81.50
0)109.12
84.98
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
46
-122
-415
500
557
852
8.68
8.51
8.77
7.81
8.13
8.30
1.92
-517
-453
-1,234
993
902
1,714
8.80
8.63
8.98
8.25
8.19
8.82
829.2
1,353.1
947.2
1.95
1.90
1.88
-875
-1,127
-943
1,382
1,573
1,441
9.37
9.56
9.45
9.12
9.39
9.05
1,816.8
1,624.5
868.5
1.91
1.86
1.94
-332
-383
-184
837
912
745
9.48
9.34
9.47
8.71
8.71
8.96
(NA)
416,056
1.84
1)1.78
1.85
-102
376
-241
715
567
952
9.56
9.59
9.91
8.93
9.03
9.44
20.0
0)24.0
20.6
521,868
2.06
1.96
2.02
-742
-2,408
-2,526
1,234
2,988
3,300
10.29
10.32
11.06
9.69
9.90
9.94
77.77
72.26
59.78
13.7
11.8
17.1
407,008
1.96
1.93
2.10
-5,311
-7,328
-6,614
5,924
)8,017
7,242
11.23
0)11.64
11.30
10.13
0)10.49
10.41
67.57
72.96
81.83
11.1
12.1
6.4
E>585,732
1.91
1.97
2.09
-5,397
-3,924
-2,333
6,017
4,617
3,186
9.99
9.43
8.38
9.97
8.79
8.16
January
February
March
86.68
108.49
100.10
13.9
9.2
13.3
435,892
2.20
2.19
2.40
-650
-386
-827
1,395
1 ,.289
1,593
8.35
8.50
8.58
7.76
8.22
8.57
April
May
June
99.24
108.50
r62.72
11.5
11.3
r3.6
2.38
2.25
2.33
-585
-530
-300
1,323
1,334
1,205
8.27
7.97
7.53
8.00
p438,352
74.96
(NA)
r8.8
p7.6
(NA)
r-252
p-238
1,107
pi,073
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
1985
July
August
September . . ,
7.88
7.90
7.84
2
3
7.17
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 32, 33, and 34.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
2
Average for weeks ended September 4, 11, and 18.
3
Average for weeks ended September 5> 12, and 19.
72
SEPTEMBER 1985
ItCIt
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^ J
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
MONEY ANO CREDIT—Continued
Interest Rates—Continued
Lg, Lg, Lg
C, Lg, Lg
U, Lg, Lg
116. Yield on
new issues of
high-grade
corporate
bonds @
115. Yield on
long-term
Treasury
bonds ©
117. Yield on
municipal
bonds, 20bond average ©
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
Outstanding Debt
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg. Lg, Lg
118. Secondary
market yields
onFHA
mortgages ©
67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans ©
(Percent)
(Percent)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks ©
66. Consumer
installment
credit outstanding
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
72. Current
dollars
(Mil dol.)
101. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
outstanding
to personal
income
(Percent)
1983
January .
February
March . .
12.04
12.11
11.81
10.37
10.60
10.34
9.50
9.58
9.20
12.87
12.65
12.68
10.20
11.16
10.98
10.50
330,217
331,987
335,322
268,553
268,394
269,309
106,653
106,253
106,699
12.42
12.50
12.55
April . . .
May . . .
June . . .
11.58
11.24
11.90
10.19
10.21
10.64
9.05
9.11
9.52
12.50
12.41
12.96
10.31
10.50
10.50
10.50
338,137
341,085
345,025
265,470
261,638
261,890
105,178
103,373
103,147
12.56
12.56
12.62
July
August
September . . .
12.46
12.89
12.68
11.10
11.42
11.26
9.53
9.72
9.58
14.23
13.78
13.55
11.09
10.50
10.89
11.00
349,482
354,022
357,745
261,618
262,789
262,747
102,756
102,732
102,515
12.73
12.83
12.85
October
November . . .
December . . .
12.54
12.86
12.87
11.21
11.32
11.44
9.66
9.75
9.89
13.23
13.23
13.25
10.95
11.00
11.00
11.00
363,883
369,635
376,006
261,999
263,537
267,979
101,985
102,743
104,272
12.93
13.04
13.15
12.65
12.80
13.36
11,29
11.44
11.90
9.63
9.64
9.93
13.08
13.20
13.68
11.06
11.00
11.00
11.21
381,273
387,461
393,390
267,992
272,651
281,834
103,632
105,108
107,941
13.16
13.25
13.38
13.64
14.41
0)14.49
12.17
12.89
0)13.00
9.96
10.49
0)10.67
13.80
0)15.01
14.91
12.45
11.93
12.39
12.60
400,182
409,275
416,357
289,095
295,920
303,692
110,595
113,163
116,179
13.48
13.74
13.85
July ,
August
September . . .
14.25
13.54
13.37
12.82
12.23
11.97
10.42
9.99
10.10
14.58
14.21
13.99
0)13.29
13.00
0)13.00
12.97
422,838
428,860
433,842
306,883
308,206
311,769
117,176
118,132
120,050
13.97
14.08
14.14
October
November . . .
December . . .
13.02
12.40
12.47
11.66
11.25
11.21
10.25
10.17
9.95
13.43
12.90
12.99
11.29
12.58
11.77
11.06
439,473
445,553
452,372
316,143
320,975
321,650
121,687
123,215
123,664
14.27
14.38
14.54
January
February
March
12.46
12.39
12.85
11.15
11.35
11.78
9.51
9.65
9.77
13.01
13.27
13.43
10.10
10.61
10.50
10.50
459,595
468,636
476,978
324,896
326,676
329,363
125,008
125,887
127,118
14.69
14.90
15.11
April
May
June
12.45
11.85
11.33
11.42
10.96
10.36
9.42
9.01
8.69
12.97
12.28
11.89
9.90
10.50
10.31
9.78
330,589
485,248
494,290 [H>r333,281
r328,801
r499,517
127,296
rl28,086
rl26,706
rl5.24
15.62
rl5.73
11.28
11.61
Ml.68
10.51
10.59
'10.67
8.81
9.08
9.23
12.12
11.99
127,544
330,849
p330,682 0>pl28,221
0)pl5.86
(NA)
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
1985
July
August
September . . .
2
9.27
3
9.50
9.50
9.50
0)505,764
(NA)
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
'Average for weeks ended September 6, 13, and 20.
2
Average for weeks ended September 5, 12, and 19.
3
Average for September 1 through 24.
SEPTEMBER 1985
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
month
950. Twelve leading
indicator components
(series 1, 5, 8, 12,19,
20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106,
111)
1-month
span
6-month
span
951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41,47,51,57)
1-month
span
6-month
span
952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62, 77, 91, 95,
101,109)
1-month
span
6-month
span
961. Average weekly
hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers,
20 manufacturing
industries
1-month
span
9-month
span
962. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, 51
areas'
1-month
span
9-month
span
963. Employees on
private nonagncuttural
payrolls, 186
industries
1-month
span
6-month
span
1983
January
February
March
75.0
70.8
66.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
33.3
50.0
25.0
16.7
16.7
16.7
82.5
15.0
100.0
90.0
90.0
87.5
68.6
57.8
35.3
98.0
96.1
100.0
52.2
45.9
59.7
50.0
62.4
65.7
April
May
June
87.5
70.8
87.5
91.7
100.0
91.7
87.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
100.0
25.0
8.3
25.0
16.7
16.
33.
95.0
95.0
90.0
90.0
80.4
48.0
78.4
84.3
52.
92.
90,
92,
70.0
68.9
63.0
67.8
74.3
78.4
July
August
September . . ,
62.5
62.5
66.7
91.7
83.3
66.7
75.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
58.
58,
16,
33.
41.
66,
77.
67.
87.5
95.0
95.0
95.0
70.6
7.8
96.1
94,
80,
72, 7
69. 5
73. 2
79.7
79.5
78.9
October . .
November
December
75.0
45.8
62.5
83.3
83.3
79.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
41.
58.
75.0
66.
66.
66.7
52.5
42.5
50.0
100.0
87.5
95.0
58.8
35.3
60.8
84,
86,
68.6
74.1
66.8
68.9
79.2
79.7
78.4
January .
February
March , ,
58.3
70.8
50.0
75.0
70.8
62.5
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
8.3
75.0
75.0
66.7
66.7
75.0
70.0
82.5
10.0
80.0
42.5
37.5
36.3
72,5
68.6
76.5
90.2
56.9
67.3
72.7
66.8
79.2
77.8
77.3
April
May
June
58
41.
25.0
25.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
83.
66.
66.
83,
83.
83,
95.0
2.5
30.0
27.
47.
15.0
43.
29.
92,
66.7
70.
38.
67.3
60.5
64.3
75.4
69.2
64.9
July
August
September . . .
16.7
37.5
75.0
25.0
75.0
87.5
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
83.3
75.0
66.7
83,
66,
66.
37.5
45.0
72.5
10.0
45.0
7.5
19.6
51.0
74.5
27,
37.
13.7
65.
58.
48.4
63,
64,
67.0
October
33.3
70.8
41.7
66.
50.
50.0
62.5
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
58.3
50.0
66.7
66.7
66.7
58.3
25.0
57.5
62.5
5.0
27.5
17.5
7.8
70.6
72.5
33,
15.
31.4
66.5
55,1
63.5
59.7
57.6
60.3
January
February
March
70.8
50.0
41.7
58.3
50.0
58.3
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100,0
50.0
66.7
50.0
5O'.O
50.0
50.0
66.7
32.5
5.0
85.0
40.0
r32.5
r37.5
13,
70,
84.
33.3
r45.1
p66.0
57.6
50,3
55.9
52.2
49.5
r44.3
April
May
June
37.5
70.8
50.0
50.0
63.6
100,0
r62.5
r75.0
100.0
100.0
41.7
50.0
33.3
41.7
*50.0
12.5
75.0
r67.5
P55.0
19.6
45.1
(NA)
r43.5
p45.9
r86.3
44.6
50.3
r47.0
plO.O
(NA)
r51.4
P59.7
1984
25.0
November . . .
December . . ,
33,
29.
1985
July
August
September . . .
62.5
2
50.0
2
87.5
3
100.0
3
41.7
"37.5
r25.0
p70.0
October
November . . .
December . . .
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
figures are the percent of components declining.
2
Excludes series 36, for which data are not available.
3
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
^Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.
74
SEPTEMBER 1985
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Year
and
month
964. Manufacturers'
new orders, 34
durable goods industries
1-month
span
9-month
span
965, Newly approved
capital appropriations
in 1972 dollars, 17
manufacturing
industries
1-quarter
span
966. Industrial production, 24 industries
967. Spot market
prices, 13 raw
industrial materials ©
1-month
span
9-month
span
968. Stock prices, 500
common stocks1 ©
960. Net profits,
manufacturing, about
600 companies 7 ©
4-Q moving
average
1-month
span
6-month
span
56
83.3
62.5
66.7
83.3
91.7
95.8
61.5
76.9
57.7
80.8
61.5
57.7
63.3
59.2
73.5
83.3
95.8
100.0
65.4
46.2
46.2
80.8
96.2
88.5
81
91
65
89.8
52
79.2
77,1
70.8
95.8
95.8
89.6
57.7
73.1
57.7
88.5
80.8
73.1
52.0
30.
85,
91,
80,
72.
82
59
95.8
75.0
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
69.2
76.9
42.3
80.8
80.8
73.1
47.9
57.4
61.7
38.3
40.4
34.0
81
60
60.4
58.3
58.3
95.8
91.7
87.5
38.5
61.5
65.4
73.1
65.4
42.3
52.1
10.6
60.6
41.5
25.5
58.7
76
56
87.5
91.7
64.6
83.3
66.7
70.8
50.0
50.0
42.3
34.6
30.8
30.8
43.6
36.2
36.2
30.4
37.0
37.0
76
r58
66.7
43.8
66.7
66.7
62.5
50.0
34.6
46.2
46.2
23.1
15.4
15.4
34.8
93.5
73.9
60.9
54,
65.
68
r54
79.2
43.8
45.8
41.7
37.5
45.8
30.8
57.7
19.2
15.4
19.2
34.6
34.8
78.3
26.1
82.
82,
p50
47.9
62.5
41.7
89.
93.
41.
77.8
73.3
85.6
57.
66.
75.6
77.8
1-month
span
9-month
span
(4-quarter span)
1983
January
February
March
72.1
57.4
61.8
88.2
82.4
85.3
45
April
May
June
79.4
63.2
69.1
86.8
88.2
91.2
53
July
August . . . . . .
September . . .
55.9
61.8
70.6
97.1
91.2
91.2
50
October
November . . .
Oecember . . .
63.2
64.7
58.8
97.1
94.1
91.2
59
January .......
February
March . . . ' . . .
67.6
50.0
52.9
91.2
79.4
85.3
71
April
May
June
35.3
58.8
26.5
75.0
52.9
41.2
59
July
August
September . . .
55.
51,
41.
44,1
61.8
52.9
36
October
55.9
55.9
52.9
29.4
55.9
44.1
>65
January
February
March
52.9
35.3
55.9
45.6
63.2
r52.9
r56
50.0
52.1
66.7
58.3
62.5
r66.7
23.1
38.5
57.7
23.1
23.1
23.1
April
May .
June
47.1
60.3
61.8
P58.8
p42
45,8
r72.9
r50.0
r66.7
P66.7
76.9
38.5
23.1
23.1
"38.5
100.0
98.0
93.9
87,
86,
71
74
1984
November . . .
December . ...
68
91.3
1985
July . . . . .
August
September
55.9
p47.1
r62.5
p66.7
38.5
46.2
M6.2
76.7
30.0
October
November
December
See note on page 74.
• ... •
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
1
Based on 49 industries through August 1983, on 48 industries through October 1983, on 47 industries through June 1984, and on 46 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
"Based on average for September 3, 10, 17, and 24.
SEPTEMBER 1985
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Q j
Year
and
quarter
970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment
by U.S. nonfarm business, 21 industries
(1-Qspan)
Revised
c. Early
projections
b. Later
projections
a. Actual
expenditures
(1-Q span)
(1-Q span)
2
Revised
8
Revised
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
971. New orders, manufacturing' ©
972. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade] ©
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
{4-Q span)
973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade 1 ©
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
2
1982
First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . . . . .
Fourth quarter . . . .
42.9
23.8
14.3
28.6
47.6
38.1
33.3
52.4
47.6
61.9
66.7
66.7
52
50
52
56
60
68
64
60
53
52
52
54
61
66
66
60
63
58
57
60
65
70
72
65
38.1
50.0
81.0
95.2
47.6
66.7
90.5
81.0
42.9
54.8
76.2
76.2
66
74
78
84
66
77
82
85
62
66
71
74
64
73
80
81
66
74
74
80
68
78
84
86
88.1
71.4
88.1
61.9
76.2
64.3
76.2
71.4
57.1
78.6
92.9
54.8
90
86
84
79
88
91
90
88
80
79
74
74
84
86
88
84
85
84
82
80
88
90
90
88
57.1
73.8
52.4
76.2
61.9
47.6
85.7
76.2
42.9
74
74
82
84
82
80
70
69
80
81
81
78
76
74
84
84
84
81
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter . . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
Q j
Year
and
quarter
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
974, Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade' ©
975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade' @
976. Selling prices, manufacturing1 ©
Actual
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
Anticipated
978. Selling prices, retail
trade 1 ©
977. Selling prices, wholesale
trade1©
Anticipated
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
72
67
68
61
82
78
72
68
78
75
74
68
82
81
76
72
65
66
70
69
63
62
68
70
68
64
68
72
68
72
69
72
69
67
70
71
74
70
70
68
74
76
76
72
73
69
65
65
72
76
75
72
72
68
70
70
70
74
74
68
65
62
70
70
64
62
64
60
68
66
66
60
66
63
65
70
67
62
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
48
46
46
46
50
51
51
48
58
52
52
52
54
56
56
50
72
68
63
60
80
76
68
66
48
54
58
61
50
56
59
60
54
59
62
68
52
58
62
64
61
60
65
68
65
63
62
62
62
64
64
62
72
70
70
70
66
70
70
66
60
58
60
62
59
58
66
63
64
66
62
58
(4-Q span)
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated b y © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p" r preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of the$t scries are shown on paje 38.
x
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc. Dun §
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
76
SEPTEMBER 1985
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change
1985
Diffusion index components
January
February
March
April
June r
May
Augustp
961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURING '
(Hours)
All manufacturing industries
40.6
40.1
40.4
40.2
40.4
40.4
40.3
40.5
Percent rising of 20 components ,
(32)
(5)
(85)
(12)
(75)
(68)
(25)
(70)
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
39.7
40.4
38.9
39.5
39.6
39.5
39.5
39.3
39.8
38.9
40.1
38.9
39.6
38.9
39.6
39.4
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
41.7
41.0
41,6
40,9
42.0
41.1
42.0
41.0
42.1
41.2
41.9
41.6
42.0
41.4
41.8
41.8
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical ...
41.4
41.7
40.9
41.1
41.1
41.6
41.1
41.2
41.1
41.4
41.3
41.6
41.3
41.3
41.2
41.5
Electric and electronic equipment.
Transportation equipment
40.8
43.1
40.2
41.9
40.7
42.5
40.2
42.3
40.4
42.6
40.6
42.3
40.3
42.5
40.5
43.1
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing
41.2
39.2
40.7
39.0
41.0
39.1
40.7
39.0
40.9
39.3
41.1
39.4
40.6
39.0
40.8
39.5
Food and kindred products ..
Tobacco manufacturers
39.8
38.3
39.7
39.2
39.8
38.9
39.6
35.4
40.1
37.0
39.6
36.6
40.1
34.8
39.9
37.7
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products ...
39.2
36.2
38.8
35.9
39.1
36.1
38.8
35.6
38.9
36.2
39.4
36.3
39.2
36.3
39.7
36.2
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing ...
43.0
37.8
42.9
37.7
42.9
37.6
43.0
37.6
43.0
37.4
42.9
37.5
42.7
37.5
43.0
38.1
Chemicals and allied products ...
Petroleum and coal products
42.0
43.2
41.9
43.1
42.1
43.3
41.9
42.0
41.9
41.7
42,0
42.6
41.9
42.5
41.9
42.7
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products .
Leather and leather products
41.5
36.8
40.5
36.4
41.1
37.1
40.9
37.0
40.9
37.1
41.2
37.0
40.6
36.9
40.5
37.5
99,839
+ 102,971
+ 106,780
104,370
+ 107,916
(60)
(62)
(56)
(47)
Durable goods industries:
Nondurable goods industries:
964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES '
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
+ 105,447
- 102,467
99,544
(53)
(35)
(56)
(47)
11,169
13,457
+
10,559
13,593
+
-
10,736
13,426
+
10,604
14,206
+
+
10,632
14,927
Percent rising of 34 components .
+
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products,..
+
+
10,803
13,582
-
10,015
12,979
+
+
10*020
13,253
Machinery, except electrical .
Electrical machinery
+
15,255
17,935
+
-
20,497
14,502
+
18,782
15,871
-
17,002
14,378
+
+
17,332
14,947
+
+
17,822
16,200
-
17,766
15,189
-
17,366
14,897
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries
+
+
27,818
20,054
-
24,831
19,643
-
22,532
19,086
+
+
23,975
19,858
+
+
26,416
20,124
+
+
28,300
20,296
-
26,730
19,875
+
-
30,590
19,504
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p",
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of
change for the six major industry groups shown here.
SEPTEMBER 1985
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued
1985
Diffusion index components
January
February
966.
123.6
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components
3
March
Apri 1
May
Julyr
June
August' 3
INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION '
(1977 = 100)
+
(50)
123.7
+
124.0
(52)
(67)
+
124.1
o
(73)
(46)
o
124.4
124.1
124.4
(50)
124.8
(62)
(67)
(NA)
144.6
(NA)
(NA)
Durable manufactures:
Lumber and products.,
Furniture and fixtures .
109.2
136.5
+•
109.1
139.0
109.5
139.2
Clay, glass, and stone products,.
Primary metals
112.7
81.7
-
110.5
Fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical machinery...
106.4
145.0
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
176.0
120.4
+
+
Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures .
138.7
99.0
Foods
Tobacco products
128.2
97.2
Textile mill products
Apparel products....
93.6
102.6
Paper and products
Printing and publishing ..
128.3
150.4
Chemicals and products .
Petroleum products
125.7
84.1
Rubber and plastics products.'
Leather and products
145.9
69.1
+
+
112.2
142.0
111.4
81.8
110.9
141.0
114.5
81.4
+
107.6
144.9
173.2
120.5
108.6
146.5
109.1
148.9
173.1
120.8
o
138.7
96.4
139.0
96.0
+
+
+
+
+
129.4
103.8
98.5
103.1
126.4
150.3
125.8
84.0
80.2
116.3
76.4
+
+
114.0
141.9
115.8
78.3
+
108.3
149.1
-
107.4
145.9
168.9
120.7
+
+
169.3
120.9
169.9
121.7
138.5
98.3
+
o
139.9
98.3
+
116.5
78.3
+
(NA)
78.9
+
+
107.7
145.8
165.7
123.2
+
107.5
146.5
+
+
165.9
126.8
140.7
97.8
o
140.7
96.3
+
141.2
(NA)
Nondurable manufactures:
+
-
128.5
103.4
+
-
99.4
101.3
+
+
+
130.8
98.4
131.4
95.7
+
+
131.8
100.5
-
131.5
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
99.0
100.2
100.0
100.3
+
-
103.3
99.2
+
+
104.0
100,9
(NA)
(NA)
126.9
152.6
+
125.1
154.2
124.1
155.4
+
+
127.1
156.3
+
+
127.9
156.4
+
(NA)
157.8
126.5
84.7
+
125.8
87.3
+
+
126.7
87.4
-
126.4
87.0
+
+
127.0
87.5
+
(NA)
88.4
145.7
69.2
144.1
69.4
+
+
144.9
69.9
+
144.3
71.0
+
74.5
121.5
83.6
131.9
81.2
128.5
108.2
119.8
106.8
118.7
106.5
118.5
144.6
70.5
145,5
71.3
(NA)
(NA)
78.3
128.7
77.2
134.0
76.1
128.0
(NA)
127.0
106.9
118.7
106.7
117.9
107.0
117.8
106.5
(NA)
Mining:
Metal mining .
Coal
70.5
118.5
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals .
110.7
118.5
+
+
-
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (—) = falling,
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
The "r" indicates revised; "p"
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
2
78
SEPTEMBER 1985
ItCIt
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Continued
Q
1985
Diffusion index components
January
March
February
April
May
967. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS
Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100) . . . .
-
255.8
-
(23)
Percent rising of 13 components
253.1
-
(38)
252.4
+ 257.1
(58)
(77)
-
June
July
August
September1
2
252.0
-
242.9
-
(23)
(38)
240.7
-
(38)
239.8
-
(46)
238.0
(46)
Dollars
Copper scrap
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
+
0.450
0.992
+
0.462
1.019
-
0.454
1.001
+
0.479
1.056
-
0.475
1.047
-
0.471
1.038
-
0.460
1.014
-
0,445
0.981
+
0.450
0.992
Lead scrap
(pound).,
(kilogram),.
-
0.109
0.240
o
0.109
0.240
-
0.099
0.218
+
0.114
0.251
+ 0.120
0.265
-
0.112
0.247
-
0.109
0.240
+ 0.112
0,247
-
0.111
0.245
Steel scrap ..,.'....•
Tin
Zinc
Burlap
+ 91.000
100.309
+ 94.500
104.167
+ 95.500
105.270
- 85,600
94.357
- 73.000
80.468
- 70.500
77.712
+ 74.000
81.570
+ 80.500
88.735
+ 80.750
89.011
(pound).,
(kilogram)..
-
5.085
11.210
-
+ 5.225
11.519
+ 5.528
12.187
+• 5,545
+ 5.650
12.456
+ 5.848
12.893
-
5.835
12.864
-
5.698
12.562
(pound).,
(kilogram)..
-
0.444
0.979
-
0.439
0.968
+
0.459
1.012
+ 0.474
1.045
+. 0.475
1.047
-
0.466
1.027
-
0.426
0.939
-
0.414
0.913
-
0.406
0.895
(yard).,
-
0.394
0.431
-
0.374
0.409 .
-
0.356
0.389
+ 0.362
0.396
-
0.358
0.392
-
0.323
0.353
-
0.306
0.335
-
0.289
0.316
-
0.261
0.285
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
-
0.610
1.345
-
0.599
1.321
+ 0.612
1.349
+ 0.632
1.393
-
0,614
1.354
-
0.610
1.345
-
0.608
1.340
-
0.592
1.305
-
0.579
1.276
(yard).,
-
0.746
0.816
-
0.702
0.768
o
0.702
0,768
-
0.642
0.702
-
0.610
0.667
-
0.600
0.656
o
0.600
0.656
+
0.602
0,658
+
0.635
0.694
3.000
6.614
o
3.000
6.614
o
3.000
6.614
0.675
1.488
(U.S. t o n ) . ,
(metric ton)..
(meter)..
Cotton
Print cloth
(meter)..
5.040
11.111
12.225
Wool tops
(pound).,
(kilogram)..
o
3.500
7.716
o
3.500
7.716
o
3.500
7.716
-
3.140
6.922
-
3.000
6.614
o
3.000
6.614
o
Hides
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
-
0.560
1.235
-
0.520
1.146
+
0.552
1.217
+
0.645
1.422
+
0.674
1.486.
-
0.634
1.398
+ 0.639
1.409
+ 0.656
1.446
+
Rosin
(100 pounds)..
(100 kilograms)..
o 47.000
103.616
o 47.000
103.616
0 47.000
103.616
+ 47.600
104.939
+ 50.000
110.230
o 50.000
110.230
o 50.000
110.230
o 50.000
110.230
o 50.000
110.230
Rubber
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
-
0.421
0.928
o
0.421
0.928
-
0.414
0.913
+
0.417
0.919
-
0.408
0.899
+
0.416
0.917
o
0.416
0.917
+ 0.422
0.930
+
0.432
0.952
Tallow
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
-
0.198
0.437
+
0.202
0.445
+
0.206
0.454
+
0.208
0.459
-
0.192
0.423
-
0.165
0.364
-
0.154
0.340
-
-
0.142
0.313
0.144
0.317
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged; and ( - ) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p"
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
a
The index is the average for September 1 through 24; component prices are averages for September 3, 10, 17, and 24,
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
SEPTEMBER 1985
79
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
0 1
Year
and
quarter
200. Gross national product in current dollars
b. Difference
a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME
217. Per capita
gross national
product in 1972
dollars
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars
c. Percent
change at
annual rate
b. Difference
a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. do).)
c. Percent
change at
annual rate
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
213. Final sales
in 1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
3,026.0
3,061.2
3,080.1
3,109.6
-1.9
35.2
18.9
29.5
-0.2
4.7
2.5
3.9
1,483.5
1,480.5
1,477.1
1,478.8
-17.8
-3.0
-3.4
1.7
3,173.8
3,267.0
3,346.6
3,431.7
64.2
93.2
79.6
85.1
8.5
12.3
10.1
10.6
1,491.0
1,524.8
1,550.2
1,572.7
3,553.3
3,644.7
3,694.6
3,758.7
121.6
91.4
49.9
64.1
14.9
10.7
5.6
7.1
3,810.6
r3,853.1
'3,909.4
51.9
r42.5
'56.3
5.6
r4.5
l
6.0
rl,671.3
*1,683.0
-4.6
-0.8
-0.9
0.5
6,408
6,381
6,349
6,341
1,490.3
1,484.5
1,483.5
1,503.4
12.2
33.8
25.4
22.5
3.3
9.4
6.8
5.9
6,379
6,510
6,602
6,681
1,507.5
1,530.9
1,549.3
1,565.4
1,610.9
1,638.8
1,645.2
1,662.4
38.2
27.9
6.4
17.2
10.1
7.1
1.6
4.3
6,829
6,933
6,943
6,998
1,579.3
1,618.5
1,614.6
1,645.6
1,663.5
1.1
r7.8
U1.7
0.3
rl.9
'2.8
6,989
r7,008
1,644.4
rl,663.0
1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
Q
Year
and
quarter-
GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME-Continued
f Q
230. Total in current
dollars
Disposable personal income
224. Current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
231. Total in 1972
dollars
232. Durable goods
in current dollars
2 33. Durable goods
in 1972 dollars
227. Per capita in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
2,132.0
2,156.8
2,195.8
2,237.5
1,052.8
1,054.8
1,057.9
1,067.6
4,548
4,546
4,548
4,578
1,931.3
1,960.9
2,001.3
2,046.1
953.7
958.9
964.2
976.3
239.4
241.6
244.5
255.0
138.5
138.8
139.3
145.2
2,261.4
2,302.9
2,367.4
2,428.6
1,073.1
1,082.0
1,102.2
1,124.3
4,591
4,619
4,694
4,776
2,070.4
2,141.6
2,181.4
2,230.2
982.5
1,006.2
1,015.6
1,032.4
259.4
276.1
284.1
299.8
146.8
156.2
159.6
167.2
2,502.2
2,554.3
2,606.4
2,644.5
1,147.6
1,165.3
1,176.5
1,186.7
4,865
4,930
4,965
4,996
2,276.5
2,332.7
2,361.4
2,396.5
1,044.1
1,064.2
1,065.9
1,075.4
310.9
320.7
317.2
326.3
173.7
178.6
177.0
182.9
2,654.8
r2,726.5
rl,205.3
1,181.9
4,965
r5,054
2,446.5
r2,493.0
1,089.1
rl,102.1
334.8
F339.2
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
187.0
rl90.1
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p" t preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 4 1 .
'"Flash" estimate.
SEPTEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENEWTURES—Continued
Year
and
quarter
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
238. Nondurable
goods in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Q
237. Services in
current dollars
239. Services in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
240. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
241. Total in
1972 dollars
242. Fixed investment in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
243. Fixed investment in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
746.4
750.6
762.5
770.6
360.5
362.0
363.7
366.0
945.4
968.6
994.2
1,020.6
454.7
458.1
461.2
465.1
436.2
431.2
415.9
376.2
204.7
200.4
194.3
177.8
453.2
442.1
431.3
437.3
211.4
204.5
200.7
202.4
775.2
796.9
811.7
823.0
368.8
374.9
378.5
383.2
1,035.8
1,068.6
1,085.7
1,107.5
466.8
475.1
477.6
482.0
405.0
449.6
491.9
540.0
191.3
212.6
230.6
249.5
447.9
469.0
496.2
527.3
207.8
218.7
229.8
242.2
841.3
858.3
861.4
866.5
387.1
396.6
395.5
395.0
1,124.4
1,153.7
1,182.8
1,203.8
483.4
488.9
493.5
497.5
623.8
627.0
662,8
637.8
285.5
283.9
300.2
289.9
550.0
576.4
591.0
601.1
253.9
263.7
269.6
273.1
877.3
398.6
r403.2
1,234.4
rl,261.9
503.5
r508.7
646.8
r643,2
292.1
r289.5
606.1
r625.3
273.0
T281.2
266. State and
local government
in current dollars
267. State and
local government
in 1972 dollars
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
r891.9
• H
• S I
Year
and
quarter
GROSS PRIVATE
DOMESTIC INVEST.—Con.
245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars
30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
260. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
261. Total in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
262. Federal
Government in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
263. Federal
Government in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
-17.0
-10.9
-15.3
-61.1
-6.7
-4.0
-6.4
-24.6
630.9
633.7
656.3
681.0
290.2
287.0
292.8
300.6
249.8
245.0
-42.9
-19.4
-4.3
12.7
-16.5
-6.1
0.9
7.2
678.8
682.2
689.8
691.4
73.8
50.6
71.8
36.6
31.6
20.3
30.6
16.8
40.7
19.1
8.3
261.6
279.4
114.8
111.0
117.2
124.8
381.1
388.7
394.7
401.6
175.4
176.0
175.7
175.8
294.3
292.4
292.0
288.8
273.0
270.5
269.2
266.3
119.0
117.2
115.6
113.0
405.8
411.6
420.6
425.1
175.3
175.2
176.4
175.8
704.4
743.7
761.0
780.5
289.5
302.1
306.1
310.5
267.6
296.4
302.0
315.7
112.2
123.2
125.0
129.6
436.8
447.4
458.9
464.8
177.3
178.9
181.1
180.9
791.9
r810.9
310.7
313.5
319.9
r324.2
129.8
rl29.7
472.0
r486.7
rl83.9
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
rl7.9
180.9
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43.
SEPTEMBER 1985
81
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT-Continued
•
Year
and
quarter
252. Current
dollars
255. Constant
(1972) dollars
280. Compensation of
employees
257. Constant
(1972) dollars
253. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate
bil dol.)
(Ann. rate
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
{Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
256. Constant
(1972) dollars
NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS
220. National in
come in current
dollars
Imports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services
Net exports of goods and services
250. Current
dollars
Wtm
183
FOREIGN TRADE
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
27.7
35.5
6.6
6.3
34
34
25
24
9
1
7
1
359
366
346
321
4
3
3
7
152 .2
155 . 1
146 .6
136 .7
331 .7
330 .8
339 .7
315 .4
117 .3
121 .0
120 .9
112 .6
2,422 .3
2,443 .9
2,452 .4
2,468 .6
1,834.2
1,857.7
1,876.3
1,888.7
19.6
-6.5
-16.4
-29.8
22
13
11
2
9
6
9
0
328
328
342
346
5
1
0
1
138 . 2 ( )
137 .0
141 .6
141 .0
308 .9
334 .5
358 .4
375 .9
115 .3
123 .4
129 .7
139 .1
2,527 .0
2,609 .0
2,684 .4
2,766 .5
1,921.3
1,962.4
2,000.7
2,055.4
-8 3
-11 4
-27 0
-13 .4
358
362
368
367
9
4
6
2
144 .9
144 .7
147 .4
147 . 1
410 .4
421 . 1
459 .3
423 .2
153 .2
156 .2
174 .4
160 .5
2,873 .5
2,944 ,8
2,984 .9
3,036 .3
2,113.4
2,159.2
2,191.9
2,228.1
360 7
r347 7
143 .7
435 .2
172 .1
rl37 .9
r441 .6
rl71 .8
3,076 .5
r3,106 .5
2,272.7
r2,305.9
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
-51.5
-58.7
-90.6
-56.0
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
-28 4
8
-74.5
r-33
r-94.0
iE
rear
and
quarter
282. Proprietors'
income with tVA
andCCAdj1
1
284. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
Q
NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS—Continued
286. Corporate
profits before tax
with IVA and
CCAdj1
288. Net interest
(Ann. rate,
bi . dol.)
(Ann rate,
bil. iol.)
-290. Gross saving
SAVING
292. Personal
saving
295 Business
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
8
7
2
6
47 .8
48 .3
52 .9
57 .0
159
161
163
151
9
7
3
6
263 .6
268 .5
257 .7
253 .8
447
445
397
344
0
4
9
8
378.3
386.2
393.8
393.9
142.6
136.7
134.5
130.2
114. 7
116. 9
123. 3
131. 9
57 .7
59 .0
56 .2
60 .4
179
216
245
260
1
7
0
0
254 .2
254 .2
259 ,2
258 .9
393 4
414 7
455 2
485 7
417.0
441.4
469.7
486.4
128.0
96.7
154. 9
149. 8
153. 7
159. 1
61 .0
62 .0
63 .0
64 . 1
277
291
282
291
4
266 .8
282 .8
293 .5
293 .4
543
551
556
556
9
1
8
6
0
4
0
498.8
515!3
525.3
535.2
152.5
144'.8
164.1
163.0
159. 8
64 .8
r66 .7
292 3
*298. 5
287.0
r274 .7
550 7
r532. 6
543.5
r557.0
118.6
rl39.4
116.
107.
102.
117.
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
119.0
128.7
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Thirri
njiartor * « * • •
I r l f l U LJUdllcF
Fourth quarter . . . .
rl60. 7
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.
X
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
82
SEPTEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Q
Year
and
quarter
SAVING—Continued
298. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Q J
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
293. Personal
saving rate
Percent of gross national product
235. Personal consumption expenditures
(Percent)
(Percent)
248. Nonresidential
fixed investment
(Percent)
249. Residential
fixed investment
247. Change in
business inventories
(Percent)
(Percent)
251. Net exports of
goods and services
(Percent)
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
-73.8
-77.6
-130.4
-179.2
6.7,
6.3
6.1
5.8
63.8
64.1
65.0
65.8
12.1
11.5
11.1
10.9
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.1
-0.6
-0.4
-0.5
-2.0
0.9
1.2
0.2
0.2
-151.7
-123.4
-133.5
-129.3
5.7
4.2
5.0
5.3
65.2
65.6
65.2
65.0
10.5
10.4
10.6
11.2
3.6
4.0
4.3
4.2
-1.4
-0.6
-0.1
0.4
0.6
-0.2
-0.5
-0.9
-107.4
-109.2
-133.0
-142.2
6.1
5.7
6.3
6.2
64.1
64,0
63.9
63.8
11.2
11.5
11.8
11.9
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.1
2.1
1.4
1.9
1.0
-1.4
-1.6
-2.5
-1.5
-111.4
4.5
r5.1
11.8
r64.7
4.1
4.1
1.1
0.5
-2.0
-2.4
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
r-163.8
64.2
| Q
Year
and
quarter
rl2.1
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME—Continued
Percent of GNP—Continued
265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services
Percent of national income
268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services
64. Compensation of
employees
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
andCCAdj1
285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj1
(Percent)
(Percent)
287. Corporate profits
before tax with
IVA and CCAdj1
(Percent)
289. Net interest
(Percent)
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
8.3
8.0
8.5
9.0
12.6
12.7
12.8
12.9
8.6
8.3
8.0
7.8
12.8
12.6
12.6
12.4
7.5
8.1
8.2
8.4
8.4
8.4
75.7
76.0
76.5
76.5
4.8
4.4
4.2
4.8
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.3
6.6
6.6
6.7
6.1
10.9
11.0
10.5
10.3
76.0
75.2
74.5
74.3
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.8
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.2
7.1
8.3
9.1
9.4
10.1
9.7
9.7
9.4
12.3
12.3
12.4
12.4
73.5
73.3
73.4
73.4
5.4
5.1
5.1
5.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
9.7
9.9
9.5
9.6
9.3
9.6
9.8
9.7
12.4
12.6
73.9
74.2
5.2
5.2
2.1
9.5
9.6
9.3
r8.8
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
•
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
:
Fourth quarter . . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
*IVAf inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
ItO
SEPTEMBER 1985
83
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
Q
Implicit price deflator for
gross national product
Year
and
month
310. Index
(1972 = 100)
PRICE MOVEMENTS
310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
311. Index
(1972 = 100)
311c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Consumer price index for
all urban consumers, food
Consumer price index
for atl urban consumers
Fixed-weighted price index,
gross domestic business product
320. Index ©
(1967-100)
320c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(Percent)
320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
322. Index
(1967 = 100)
322c. Change
over 1-month
spansl
(Percent)
322c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1983
5.0
January
February
March
212*9
April
May
June
214'.2
July
August
September
215*9
October
November
December
218*2
2.7
293.1
293.2
293.4
0.3
-0.1
0.1
1.4
2.3
3.4
288.5
288.9
290.2
0.0
0.1
0.4
2.4
2.8
2.2
3.9
295.5
297.1
298.1
0.7
0.4
0.2
3.6
4.4
5.0
291.3
292.1
291.5
0.4
0.3
-0.2
2.1
1.9
1.7
4.5
299.3
300.3
301.8
0.4
0.3
0.4
4.2
4.1
4.2
291.5
291.7
292.7
0.0
0.1
0.3
1.7
1.5
3.0
3.5
302,6
303.1
303.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
4.7
4.8
4.6
293.8
294.3
295.9
0.4
0.2
0.5
5.8
7.2
6.4
4.2
305.2
306.6
3fi7 ?
0.6
0.4
n ?.
4.8
4.5
299.9
302.0
qrn n
1.4
0.7
n n
5.4
4.6
A
4.1
308.8
309.7
310.7
0.4
0.2
0.2
3.6
3.7
3.8
301,6
301.0
301.5
-0.1
-0.2
0.2
1,8
1.5
1.7
4.0
311.7
313.0
314.5
0.3
0.4
0.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
302.6
304.2
304.4
0.4
0.5
0.1
2.5
3.3
3.8
3.5
315.3
315.3
315.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
3.4
3.3
3.5
305.4
305.9
307.2
0.3
0.2
0.4
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.6
316.1
317.4
318.8
0.2
0.3
0.5
3.7
3.8
3.7
307.7
309.3
309.2
0.2
0.5
0.0
2.2
1.6
0.8
320.1
321.3
322.3
0.4
0.2
0.2
3.7
3.4
308.7
•308.3
308.5
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.7
-0.3
322.8
323.5
0.2
0.2
308.8
308.9
0.1
0.0
220.'4
2.6
222.* 5
3.1
225^6
4.4
226*. 9
1984
January
February
March
220*6
April
May
June
222.'4
4.4
229*3
3.3
July
August
September
23i*6
'
3.9
224*6
October
November
December
233'.9
2.8
226*. i
236*0
-5
o o
1985
January
February
March
229.1
April
May
June
236*6
July
August
September
5.4
238.1
r2.6
2
2
232*3
r3.7
r240*3
3.1
....
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
1
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
2t
'Flash" estimate.
84
SEPTEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
.
330. Index ©
(1967 = 100)
330c. Change
over 1-month
spans'©
(Percent)
Producer price index, crude materials
for further processing
Producer price index, industrial commodities
Producer price index, all commodities
Year
and
month
^ H PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued
330c. Change
over 6-month
spans'©
(Ann. rate,
percent)
335. Index©
335c. Change
over 1-month
1
spans
(1967-100)
©
335c. Change
over 6-month
331. Index
spans' ©
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967 = 100)
331c. Change
over 1-month
spans'
(Percent)
331c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1983
299.9
300.9
300.6
-0.3
0.3
-0.1
0.5
0.8
1.1
313.9
313.9
313.5
-0.4
0.0
-0 1
-1.2
-0.9
0 1
316.3
318.0
320 0
-0.5
0.5
0 6
4.1
1.5
2 1
300.6
301.5
302.4
0.0
0.3
0.3
2.2
2.5
3.2
312.4
313.6
315.3
-0.4
0.4
0.5
1.7
2.2
2 3
322.2
321.0
321 1
0.7
-0.4
0.0
1.1
4.8
6 1
July
August
September
303.2
304.7
305.3
0.3
0.5
0.2
3.6
2.7
2.5
316.5
317.3
317.1
0.4
0.3
-0.1
3.9
3.0
2.0
318.1
325.5
329.6
-0.9
2.3
1.3
4.7
5.4
7.9
October
November
December
306.0
305.5
306.1
0.2
-0.2
0.2
3.2
2.8
3.8
318.5
318.3
318.4
0.4
-0.1
0.0
1.6
2.1
3.1
329.7
329.5
333 5
0.0
-0.1
1.2
11.7
2.9
4 6
January
February
March
308.0
308.9
311.0
0.6
0.3
0.7
3.5
4.0
3.4
319.1
320.6
321.9
0.2
0.5
0,4
2.6
3.1
3.4
336.2
330.2
337.1
0.8
-1.8
2.1
3.5
1.8
-1.9
April
May
June
311.3
311.5
311.3
0.1
0.1
-0.1
2.5
1.2
-1-1
322.6
323.2
323,8
0.2
0.2
0.2
3.0
1.7
0.2
335.4
332.5
330.4
-0.5
-0,9
-0,6
-2.9
-1.7
-5.6
July
August
September
311.9
310.7
309 3
0.2
-0.4
-0 5
-1.2
-0.8
-1 0
323.9
323.3
322 2
0,0
-0.2
-0 3
0.5
0.4
-0 5
331.3
327.4
327 6
0.3
-1.2
0.1
-6.4
-2.0
-1.1
309.4
310.3
309.8
0.0
0.3
-0.2
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
323.4
323.8
323.0
0.4
0.1
-0.2
-0.6
-0.7
0.2
324.5
329.1
328.5
-0.9
1.4
-0.2
-5.7
-6.8
-9.9
January
February
March
309.5
309.1
308.6
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
322.9
322.2
322.5
0.0
-0.2
0.1
0.2
0.9
1.1
321.7
316.0
311.0
-2.1
-1.8
-1.6
April
May
June
309.3
309.9
309.1
0.2
0.2
-0.3
-0.3
-1.2
323.8
325.3
324.7
0.4
0.5
-0,2
0.9
0.9
r307.4
305.1
303.3
r-1.2
r-0.7
-0.6
July
August
September
309.0
307.2
0.0
-0.6
324.3
323.6
-0.1
-0.2
301.6
294.4
-0.6
-2.4
January
February
March
April
May
June
. ..
1984
,.
October
November
December
:
1985
r-10.3
-14.1
-14.8
-12.1
-13.2
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
1
Changes are centered within the spans:
SEPTEMBER 1985
1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
85
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PROOUCTIVITY-Continued
R f l
Producer price index, intermediate
materials, supplies, and components
Year
and
month
332. Index
332c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued
Producer price index, capital equipment
332c. Change
333. Index
over 6-month
spans'
333c. Change
over 1-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
(1967 = 100)
(Percent)
percent)
(1967=100)
(Percent)
Producer price index, finished consumer goods
333c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
334. Index
(1967 = 100)
334c. Change
over 1-month
spans'
(Percent)
334c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann, rate,
percent)
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
.
August
September
October
November
December
309.9
310.0
309.3
-0.4
-1.0
-0.6
0.1
284.1
285.0
285.8
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
308.5
309.6
311.1
-0.3
0.4
0.5
1.4
2.1
3.8
285.9
286.3
286.9
312.1
313.2
315.1
0.3
0.4
0.6
4.9
4.1
3.4
315.9
315.9
316.4
0.3
0.0
0 2
317.1
317.9
319.6
2.6
2.3
1.8
283.4
283.3
282.9
-0.9
0.0
-0.1
-0.6
-1.0
-0.9
0.0
0.1
0.2
2.3
2.4
1.8
282.8
283.6
284.7
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.8
1.6
2.3
287.3
288.4
288.4
0.1
0.4
0.0
2.2
2.0
2.0
284.5
285.5
286.1
-0.1
0.4
0.2
2.6
1.4
1.3
3.2
3.0
2 9
289.0
289.2
289 7
0.2
0.1
0 2
2.2
2.3
2 9
286.5
285.6
286 5
0.1
-0.3
3.0
2.8
0.2
0.3
0.5
2.7
3.2
3 2
290.5
291.7
292 5
0.3
0.4
0 3
3.7
3.2
3 1
288.8
289.5
291 2
0.8
0.2
0 6
3.1
3.5
2 7
320.1
320.9
321.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
2.4
1.5
0 3
294.3
293.8
294 1
0.6
-0.2
0 1
2.9
2.5
2 3
290.9
290.5
290 3
-0.1
-0.1
-fl 1
1.5
0.4
-0 9
320.9
320.3
320.0
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.5
294.7
295.3
295.8
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.5
1.4
0.6
291.0
290.1
289.9
0.2
-0.3
-0.1
-0.7
0.3
0.6
320.4
320.9
320.7
0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.8
-0.9
295.1
295.9
295.0
-0.2
0.3
-0.3
1.1
2.2
2.5
289.9
290.9
291.2
0.0
0.3
0.1
-0.3
0.1
0.4
320.4
319.0
318.5
-0.1
-0.4
-0.2
-0.8
-0.6
-1.2
296.3
298.6
299.5
0.4
0.8
0.3
3.1
2.6
4.0
290.6
290.3
290.5
-0.2
-0.1
0.1
1.4
1.2
0.1
319.1
320.0
318.8
0.2
0.3
-0.4
-1.6
-1.1
r299.,6
299.7
300.9
3.1
2.0
291.9
292.6
291.4
0.5
0.2
-0,4
1.4
0.7
317.8
317.3
-0.3
-0.2
292.6
291.3
0.4
-0,4
0.3
0.3
0 T
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
. .
August
September
October
November
December
1985
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
. . .
August
300.9
301.6
rO.O
0.0
0.4 .
0.0
0.2
September
October
November
Oecember
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
1
Changes are centered within the spans:
1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
SEPTEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Q
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1
Year
and
month
Current-dollar earning;
340. Index
(1977-100)
340c. Change
over 1-month,
spans2
(Percent)
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Real earnings
340c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
341. Index
(1977 = 100)
Current-dollar compensation
341c. Change
over 1-month
spans!
341c, Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
345. Index
(1977=100)
over 1-quarter
spans2
345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
345c. Change
1983
January . .
February . .
March
152.9
153.6
153.6
0.5
0.5
0,0
4.4
4.7
3.9
94.8
95.3
95.1
April
May
June
154.2
154.8
155.1
0.4
0.4
0.2
3.7
2.5
3.5
July
August . . .
September ,
155.7
155.5
156.3
0.4
-0.1
0.5
October
November
December
157.2
157.3
157 9
January
February
March
0.3
0.5
159.7
-0.2
3.1
2.5
0.9
94.8
94.9
94.9
-0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2
-1.8
-1.1
16116
3.9
3.3
3.7
94.9
94.4
94.6
0.0
-0.5
0.2
0.1
-0.2
0 2
16ll9
0.6
0.1
0.4
3.8
4.3
3 8
94.9
94.8
95 0
0.3
-0.1
0 2
0.0
1.0
1 2
163. 7
158.6
158.7
159.2
0.4
0.1
0.3
3.7
3.3
3.2
94.9
94.9
95.1
-0.1
0.0
0.3
1.3
0.5
0.5
165.*9
April
May
June
160.1
159.9
160 5
0.5
-0.1
0 3
3.0
2.6
3 2
95.5
95.0
95 2
0.3
-0.5
0 2 "
0.7
-1.4
-1 8
167^4
July
August
September
161.0
160.8
161.7
0,4
-0.1
0.6
1.8
2.9
3.6
95.2
94.2
94.3
0.0
-1.1
0.1
-2.9
-1.1
-0.8
16&\9
October
November
December
161.6
162.2
163 4
-0.1
0.4
0 7
2.5
4.0
3 3
94.1
94.5
94 9
-0.2
0.4
0 4
-1.5
1.2
0 6
17CK5
163.0
164.0
164.4
-0.2
0.6
0.3
4.0
3.2
94.5
94.7
94.5
-0.4
0.3
-0.2
0.6
-0;5
April
May
June
164.8
164.9
rl65.6
0.2
0.1
rO.5
94.4
94.3
r94.5
-0.2
-0,1
r0.3
July
August . . .
September
165.5
P165.5
r-O.l
pO.O
r94.3
p94.2
r-0.2
p-0.2
5.7
4.1
3.3
3*.9
2.3
3*.9
4.5
3!9
1984
5.4
4.*3
3.5
ili
3.7
4.0
3.8
3^9
1985
January
February
March
r2.8
3.1
pi. 8
4.8
172.5
r-0.8
-0.3
p-1.2
3.2
173.8
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
1
Adjusted for overtime (-in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
ItCII SEPTEMBER 1985
87
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued
Negotiated wage and
benefit decisions
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector—Continued
Year
and
month
Real compensation
346.Index
(1977-100)
346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans]
346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
348. Average
first-year
changes ©
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Output per hour, all persons, business sector
349. Average
changes over
life of
contract ©
(Ann. rate,
percent)
370. Index
(1977 = 100)
358. Index of
output per hour,
all persons,
nonfarm business sector
370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'
370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1977 = 100)
3.4
101.6
3.1
103.6
3.5
104.1
3.3
104.4
2.7
105.2
3.2
106.6
1.1
106.3
0.3
106,9
1983
-1.6
5.3
January
February
March
98.7
April
May
June
98.5
July
August
September . . .
98.0
October
November . . .
December . . .
3.1
102.2
4.4
-1.0
103.6
5.0
2.8
4.3
-0.6
0.1
5.9
3.6
0.6
-1.8
2.1
1.4
1.5
104.3
4.9
1.4
3.1
-0.4
104.7
1984
5.1
O.I
January . .
February ,
March . . ,
98.1
April
May
June
98.1
July
August
September .". ,
98,1
October
November . . ,
December . . .
98.1
4.7
0.1
-0.2
3.5
107.0
2.7
0.4
0.2
4.9
3.2
0.1
0.0
4.0
105.7
0.6
3.1
107.2
3.7
0.2
2.0
3.1
108.0
1985
January . ' . . . ,
February
March
98.5
April
May
June
98.3
1.5
3.6
3.1
-3.9
106.9
-1.0
p3.8
p3.5
106,0
1.3
107.3
106.3
July
August
September . . .
October . .
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
1
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are
placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
SEPTEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Q |
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Civilian tabor force
Year
and
month
441. Total
442. Civilian
employment
Number unemployed
37. Persons
unemployed
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
444. Males
20 years
and over
(Thous.)
447. Number
unemployed,
full-time
workers
448. Number
employed
part time
for economic
reasons
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
446. Both
445. Females
20 years
and over
sexes 16-19
years of age
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
Civilian labor force participation rates
451. Males
20 years
and over
(Percent)
452. Females
20 years
and over
(Percent)
453. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age
(Percent)
1983
January
February
March
110,746
110,700
110,733
99,233
99,144
99,303
April
May
June
110,906
110,892
111,717
July
August
September
October
November
December
11,430
5,587
5,737
5,620
3,990
3,950
3,895
1,936
1,869
1,915
9,802
9,915
9,747
6,179
99,590
99,634
100,444
11,316
11,258
11 273
5,669
5,657
5 408
3,751
3,750
3 861
1,896
1,851
2 004
9,656
9,521
9 382
6,021
5,989
5 945
111,707
112,184
112,264
101,173
101,589
101,983
10,534
10,595
10,281
5,186
5,129
5,016
3,481
3,567
3,513
1,867
1,899
1,752
8,934
8,948
8,733
111,914
112,150
112,237
102,042
102,702
103,029
9,872
9,448
9,208
4,801
4,592
4,382
3,359
3,225
3,227
1,712
1,631
1,599
112,320
112,724
112,906
103,294
103,888
104,123
9,026
8,836
8,783
4,273
4,139
4,048
3,191
3,135
3,148
. 113,202
113,722
113,619
104,402
105,162
105,391
8,800
8,560
8,228
4,087
3,909
3,807
July
August
September
113,868
113,629
113,764
105,377
105,148
105,394
8,491
8,481
8,370
October
November
December
114,016
114,074
114,464
105,649
105,932
106,273
January
February
March
114,875
115,084
115,514
April
53.9
53.0
53 0
78.2
78.2
78 2
53.0
52 9
78.4
52.9
78.4
78 6
52.7
CO 1
5,858
5,958
5,974
78.7
78.6
78.5
52.9
53.3
53.5
53.7
54.9
53.6
8,315
7,924
7,679
5,726
5,884
5,677
78.4
78.4
78.3
53.3
53.2
53.3
52.8
53.3
53.5
1,562
1,562
1,587
7,532
7,321
7,301
5,719
5,697
5,465
78.3
78.3
78.3
53.1
53.3
53.5
53.4
53.8
53.9
3,161
3,127
2,972
1,552
1,524
1,449
7,331
7,056
6,578
5,520
5,377
5,549
78.3
78.3
78.3
53.6
54.1
53.8
54.2
54.3
54.3
3,884
3,836
3,817
3,130
3,214
3,044
1,477
1,431
1,509
7,010
6,933
6,931
5,482
5,384
5,449
78.3
78.3
78.3
54.0
53.9
53.6
54.5
53.0
8,367
8,142
8,191
3,731
3,725
3,759
3,173
3,027
2,952
1,463
1,390
1,480
6,932
6,768
6,811
5,483
5,413
5,596
78.3
78.3
78.3
53.9
53.9
54.0
53.7
53.5
54.1
106,391
106,685
107,119
8,484
8,399
8,396
3,798
3,774
3,731
3,161
3,126
3,179
1,525
1,499
1,485
6,963
6,954
6,821
5,389
5,077
5,400
78.2
78.2
78.2
54.4
54.5
54.8
55.2
55.7
56.0
115,371
115,373
114,783
106,945
106,960
106,370
8,426
8,413
8 413
3,807
3,651
3,891
3,197
3,231
3,148
1,422
1,531
1,374
6,852
6,797
6 741
5,374
5,617
5 257
78.2
78.1
55.3
55.8
77 Q
54.7
54.5
54 6
R1
115,314
115,299
106,862
107,172
8,451
8,127
3,767
3,600
3,125
3,192
1,559
1,335
6,964
6,644
5,350
5,443
77.9
77.9
54.5
54.6
55.3
53.5
11,513
11,556
6,456
6,303
53.0
52.8
52.5
1984
January
February
March
April
May
June
54.2
1985
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 51.
SEPTEMBER 1985
8
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
DEFENSE INDICATORS
RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
Federal Government1
Year
and
month
State and local government'
Advance measures of defense activity
500. Surplus
or deficit
501. Receipts
502. Expenditures
510. Surplus
or deficit
511. Receipts
512. Expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.}
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred
(Mil. dol.)
525. Defense
Department
prime contract awards
543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
548. Manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products
(Mil. dol.)
1983
January
February
March
-185.7
619.8
805.6
34.1
458.3
424.2
21,340
19,502
20,444
16,908
13,042
7,351
122,628
123,803
125,570
9,555
5,014
6,361
April .
May .
June .
-167.3
649.3
816.7
43.9
473.5
429.6
19,332
19,554
21,518
10,132
10,111
10,814
126,165
126,532
129,720
63578
5,609
7,412
July
August
September . . .
-180.9
640.2
821.1
47.4
486.1
438.7
19,409
20,489
20,388
11,017
10,727
10,921
131,172
130,829
133,056
7,115
5,496
5,804
October
November . . .
December . ..
-180.5
655.0
835.5
51.2
495.0
443.8
17,201
24,242
24,204
2,820
16,140
9,463
131,130
139,062
141,820
6,792
8,506
7,038
January
February
March
-161.3
686.4
847.6
53.9
509.6
455.7
21,145
22,667
23,445
15,089
14,273
13,779
142,169
145,648
150,842
6,503
6,884
11,713
April .
May .
June .
-163.7
704.3
868.0
54.5
520.6
466.1
19,185
20,342
19,781
11,398
9,459
11,644
149,369
149,452
151,538
5,139
6,648
6,834
July
August
September . . ,
-180.6
706.2
886.8
47.6
524.6
477.0
20,988
23,098
22,191
10,101
12,647
11,441
152,828
156,271
156,950
7,600
8,090
7,301
October
November . , .
December . . ,
-197.8
721.9
919.7
55.6
539.7
484.0
20,821
28,892
26,686
12,901
25,552
7,017
159,226
168,321
172,010
5,167
10,091
7,448
-165.1
771.4
936.5
53.7
545.6
491.9
22,492
20,377
20,346
13,405
12,805
10,088
174,180
173,704
174,338
11,061
4,708
6,240
r-214.1
r733.9
r948.0
r50.3
r558.0
r507.7
22,655
25,140
29,513
8,716
14,605
11,052
174,867
178,000
179,337
6,130
8,773
rll,238
p31i641
pll>761
pl82,074
(NA)
r9,594
plO,795
1984
1985
January .
February
March . .
April
May
June
July . . . .
August . .
September
CNA)
(NA)
October . .
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
x
Based on national income and product accounts.
90
SEPTEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
1
J
DEFENSE INDICATORS—Continued
National defense
purchases
Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month
557. Index of
industrial
production,
defense and
space equipment
559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products/ book
value
561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(1977 = 100)
580. Defense
Department
net outlays,
military
(Mil. dol.)
588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products
(Mil. dol.)
570. Employment, defense
products industries
(Thous.)
Defense Department
personnel
577. Military
on active
duty ©
(Thous.)
564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
578. Civilian,
services,
direct hire
national
employment © defense
(Thous.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
565. National
defense purchases as a
percent of
GNP
(Percent)
1983
January
February
March
137.8
139.2
140.4
16,585
16,455
16,758
100,987
100,757
101,896
17,058
16,772
16,804
5,174
5,244
5,222
1,344
1,346
1,342
2,120
2,122
2,127
1,024
1,028
1,030
194^7
6.1
April
May
June
141.6
142.7
143.6
16,826
17,175
17,331
103,198
103,529
105,568
17,529
16,854
17,189
5,276
5,278
5,373
1,347
1,352
1,356
2,123
2,120
2,116
1,029
1,040
1,049
199^3
o!i
July
August .
September
144.9
145.0
146.3
17,321
17,813
17,436
107,018
107,084
107,453
16,975
18,455
17,463
5,665
5,430
5,435
1,366
1,350
1,372
2,113
2,115
2,123
1,053
1,052
1,026
20CL9
e!6
October
November
December
146.4
145.2
145.5
17,278
17,450
17,837
108,627
111,449
112,754
17,781
17,329
18,726
5,618
5,684
5,733
1,374
1,377
1,383
2,120
2,126
2,124
1,034
1,040
1,045
207^2
6\6
January
February
March
148.8
151.3
151.9
17,861
18,190
18,746
113,575
114,624
120,647
18,448
17,801
17,794
5,682
5,835
5,690
1,391
1,398
1,408
2,130
2,135
2,140
1,042
1,043
1,046
213.4
...
6.0
April
May
June
155.6
156.0
157.2
19,017
19,514
20,035
119,870
120,758
121,672
18,525
18,609
18,953
5,916
5,760
5,920
1,415
1,427
1,440
2,138
2,141
2,143
1,049
1,061
1,071
22CL8
S.I
July
August
September
158 5
160.7
163 4
20,734
21,315
22,141
123,219
125,276
126,496
18,405
19,181
19,469
6,053
6,033
2,142
2,144 •
2,138
1,079
1,074
1,043
220.3
6.0
6,081
1,450
1,459
1,470
October
November
December
163.5
163.3
165.3
22,551
22,581
22,517
125,340
129,092
129,775
18,687
20,152
19,899
6,323
6,339
6,765
1,480
1,486
1,498
2,138
2,141
2,138
1,058
1,065
1,067
231.6
6.2
165.3
167.3
169.0
23,091
23,405
134,455
132,467
131,990
18,762
20,058
20,465
6,380
6,695
6,718
1,511
1,522
1,532
2,146
2,147
2,148
1,065
1,069
1,072
233^9
oil
April
May
June
170.-1
H71.2
rl72.8
24,006
23,962
24,721
131,769
133,958
6,352
6,584
r7,221
1,540
1,550
1,078
1,089
1,099
r6.3
rl,561
2,148
2,149
2,151
r241.'i
rl37,975
19,597
20,603
20,554
July
August
September
rl73,5
P175.0
25,317
(NA)
r140,742
pl44,552
r21,498
p22,487
r6,827
p6,985
p i , 566
(NA)
2,156
p2,157
1,110
(NA)
'
1984
1985
January
February
March
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
SEPTEMBER 1985
91
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
MERCHANDISE TRADE
602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments
604. Exports of domestic
agricultural products
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
612. General imports
Year
and
614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum
products
616. Imports of automobiles and parts
month
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dpi.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1983
January
February
March
17,232
16,312
16,690
3,128
2,985
2,811
3,644
3,359
3,499
20,127
18,804
19,528
4,481
3,183
3,603
2,329
3,019
2,676
April
May
June
16,095
15,655
16,959
2,891
2,715
2,977
3,513
3,433
3,265
19,914
21,446
20,916
3,749
5,432
4,215
2,746
2,819
2,823
July
August
September , . .
16,486
16,582
17,257
3,072
973
322
655
290
718
21,828
22,714
22,451
4,622
4,597
4,929
2,936
2,813
2,636
October
November . . .
December . . .
17,033
17,063
17,298
979
109
3,175
689
686
3,683
24,333
23,115
22,976
4,818
4,459
3,997
3,233
3,415
3,801
January
February
March
17,889
17,208
17,906
3,457
3,198
3,336
4,009
3,848
3,764
26,204
26,420
26,948
4,515
4,660
5,393
3,684
3,751
3,680
April
May
June
17,520
17,978
17,705
3,030
3,245
2,715
3,811
3,976
3,746
28,074
26,012
25,276
6,000
5,113
4,694
3,838
3,635
3,683
July
August
September . , .
19,154
18,123
18,210
3,236
3,022
3,153
3,790
3,878
3,640
31,334
26,866
28,409
4,674
4,021
4,261
3,947
3,773
4,302
October
18,411
18,395
19,142
2,799
3,242
3,314
4,007
3,905
4,128
26,783
27,331
25,933
4,007
4,637
4,298
3,600
3,817
3,732
January
February
March
19,401
17,853
18,446
2,945
2,842
2,436
4,247
970
160
28,297
27,985
28,129
4,005
3,833
3,411
033
999
243
April
May
June
17,779
17,414
17,438
2,624
2,092
2,167
970
073
952
28,295
28,685
29,425
4,936
5,237
4,842
4,350
4,073
4,932
July
August
September . . .
17,412
(NA)
2,158
3,615
26,630
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
3,342
(NA)
4,161
(NA)
1984
November . . ,
December . . .
1985
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
SEPTEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
E
|
GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)
Merchandise, adjusted'
Goods and services
Year
and
month
667. Balance
(Mil. doL)
668. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
669. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
622. Balance
(Mil. dol.)
618. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
Income on investment
620. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
651. U.S. investment abroad
(Mil. dol.)
652. Foreign
investment in
the United States
(Mil. dol.)
1983
January
February
March
-1,454
31,411
82,865
-9,621
49,227
58,848
17,935
12,283
-7,163
81,712
88,875
-14,754
48,862
63,616
19,172
12,856
July
August
September
-9,091
85,068
94,159
-17,230
50,399
67,629
20,985
13,588
October
November
December
-14,228
85,396
99,624
" -20,407
52,257
72,664
19,932
13,893
January
February
March
-16,852
90,764
107,616
-25,569
53,753
79,322
23,502
15,268
April
May
June
-22,261
88,996
111,257
-25,649
54,677
80,326
20,895
17,277
July
August
September
-29,624
91J24
120,748
-32,507
55,530
88,037
21,769
18,5i3
October
November
December
-21,382
91,539
112,921
-24,557
56,355
80,912
21,445
17,442
January
February
March
r-27,153
r88,939
rll6,092
r-29,532
r55,707
r85,239
rl8,868
rl6,33I
April
May
June
p-28,459
p88,846
pll7,305
rp-33,001
rp53,245
rp86,246
p22,104
pl6,522-
April
May
June
:
1984
1985
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
1
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).
I M J I SEPTEMBER 1985
93
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Year
and
month
47. United States,
index of industrial production
(1977^100)
721. OECD1
European countries, index of
industrial
production
(1977 = 100)
728. Japan,
index of industrial production
(1977 = 100)
725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production
(1977-100)
726. France,
index of industrial production
(1977 = 100)
722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
(1977 = 100)
727. Italy, index
of industrial
production
(1977-100)
723. Canada,
index of industrial production
(1977 = 100)
1983
January
February
March
102.5
103.3
104.2
102
104
104
120.0
119.5
122.2
99
101
102
102
101
101
100
100
99
105.4
107.6
105.6
97.6
97.9
98.3
April
May
June
105.6
106.9
107.8
102
104
104
122.0
122.0
123.2
102
102
105
101
104
102
100
100
100.6
103.1
100.1
99.8
99.8
102.2
July
August
September . . .
109.8
111.6
113.7
105
104
105
123.4
126.8
129.0
102
103
104
104
104
102
101
101
101
103.8
101.5
104.0
101,
104.
106.4
October . .
November
December
114.4
114.8
115.5
104
107
107
127.5
130.0
131.3
104
106
107
101
104
104
101
101
105
102.4
109.3
103.7
107.8
108.7
110.5
January
February
March
118.4
119.3
120.1
108
108
107
131.5
135.4
134.2
106
108
105
105
104
105
105
104
103
105.7
104.3
108.1
111.0
108.0
110.0
April
May
June
120.7
121.3
122.3
106
107
rlO5
135.
137.
138,
105
106
95
102
105
103
rlO3
rlO2
rlO3
103.8
107,
108,
109,
110,
111
July
August
September . , .
123.
123.
123.
108
109
109
139,
140,
139.4
109
107
108
109
109
105
102
102
103
107.1
108.7
110.0
115
114.5
112.2
October
November , . ,
December . . .
122.7
123.4
123.3
109
109
rlO9
143.3
143.4
142.7
109
110
109
107
104
102
103
103
104
107.3
106.1
106.6
112.2
114.1
115.0
123.6
123.7
124.0
108
rllO
111
143.0
142.8
140.8
110
109
110
100
rlO5
107
rlO5
rlO5
rlO7
102.5
111.5
111.8
114.2
113.8
rll3.9
April
May
June
124.1
rl24.1
rl24.4
109
rllO
pill
144.5
rl48.2
P146.1
110
rill
pll3
103
105
plO3
rlO8
108
plO8
107.0
rlO8.3
pill.5
114,6
rll4.2
P115.9
July
August
September . . .
rl24.4
P124.8
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1984
1985
January
February
March
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pafe 58.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
94
SEPTEMBER 1985
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F
I
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Q
United States
Year
320. Index ©
and
month
(1967 = 100)
West Germany
Japan
320c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
738. Index ©
(1967 = 100)
CONSUMER PRICES
738c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
735. Index ©
(1967 = 100)
France
735c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
736. Index©
(1967-100)
United Kingdom
736c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann, rate,
percent)
732. Index ©
(1967 = 100)
732c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1983
1.4
0.7
306.6
305.5
307.5
2.1
1.2
201.2
201.3
201.2
1.9
1.2
390.1
392.9
396.5
10.8
10.0
523.5
525.8
526.7
5.0
308.6
312.0
309.7
1.1
1.9
1.0
201.7
202.2
202.9
2.4
3.6
4.1
401.8
404.5
406.9
9.8
9.9
10,3
534.1
536.4
537.7
5.0
5.4
6.1
299.3
300.3
301.8
4.2
4.1
4.2
308.3
307.4
311.4
2.0
1.6
2.3
203.6
204.3
204.9
3.6
3.2
9,1
8.9
3,8
410,4
412.8
416.0
8.6
540.6
543.0
545.4
6.5
6.3
6.6
302.6
303.1
303.5
4.7
4.8
4.6
314.2
312.2
311.4
2.6
4.0
3.8
204.9
205.2
205.7
3.0
2.2
2.2
419.2
420,9
422.4
8.3
8.0
7.1
547.3
549.2
550.7
5.3
4.8
4.4
January
February
March
305.2
306.6
307.3
4.8
4.5
4.3
312.3
314.2
315.1
2.7
2.4
1.5
206.6
207.1
207.3
2.6
2.5
1.9
425.4
428.0
431.0
6.6
6.6
6.9
550.4
552.6
554.4
4.1
4.0
3.7
April
May
June . . .
308.8
309.7
310.7
3.6
3.7
3.8
315.9
318.2
315.6
2.5
-0.1
0.8
207.7
207.8
208.6
1.6
1.3
0.9
433.6
436.2
438.4
6.8
7.0
7.2
561.8
563.9
565.3
3.6
5.1
5.1
311.7
313.0
314.5
3.5
3.6
3.7
316.2
313.4
318.5
1.6
1.9
3.8
208.2
207,8
208.0
1.6
1.7
2.1
441.5
443.7
445.9
7.7
7.4
6.8
564.7
570.0
571.1
5.7
5.9
5.4
315,3
315.3
315.5
3.4
3.3
3.5
321.0
319.0
319.6
3.2
3.0
2.5
209.2
209.6
209.8
2.7
3.4
4.3
449.0
450.3
451.2
6.4
5,9
5.8
574.6
576.4
575.9
316.1
317.4
318.8
3.7
3.8
3.7
321.3
318.7
320.2
2.2
1.3
1.4
211.0
211.9
212.6
3.4
3.4
2.4
453.5
455.8
459.0
5.5
5.5
6.0
578.0
582.7
588.1
8.2
8.3
8.5
320.1
321.3
322.3
3.7
3.4
321.9
323.3
323.5
(NA)
212.9
213.1
213.3
1.6
(NA)
462.2
464.5
466.4
5.8
(NA)
600.6
603.4
604.7
7,3
616 ,
January
February
March
293.1
293.2
293.4
April
May
June
295.5
297.1
298.1
3.6
4.4
July
August
September
October
November
December
2.3
3.4
1.7
11.9
•3/5
3.2
3/8 .
1984
July
August .
September
...
October .
November
December
!
6'. 5
' 5.6
7,1
1985
January
February
March
April
May
June
.
July
August
September
322.8
323.5
(NA)
212.9
(NA)
468.2
(NA)
603.5
605.1
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
KCII SEPTEMBER 1985
95
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F
I
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued
Q j
Italy
Year
and
month
737.Index ©
E
CONSUMER PRICES—Continued
19. United
Canada
737c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
733. Index ©
733c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
|
STOCK PRICES
748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices ©
745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ©
746. France,
index of
stock
prices ©
742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ©
index of
stock
prices ©
743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ©
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967-100)
(1967 = 100)
747. Italy,
stocks ©
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967-100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
602.7
610.5
616.0
14.3
14.2
13.8
312.5
313.9
317.1
4,2
3.4
4.2
156.9
159.7
165.2
533.3
530.8
544.2
126.0
131.9
143.9
159.1
165.0
179.1
371.9
381.6
388.3
95.5
109.1
118.7
210.0
216.6
219.5
April
May
June
622.2
628.2
632.2
14.0
13.2
12.7
317.1
317.9
321.5
5.2
5.9
4.7
171.6
178.5
181.0
559.7
573.4
583.3
157,0
158.6
159.5
188.7
200.4
196.8
410.4
403.7
426.1
115.8
111.6
110.3
240.0
251.8
260.2
July,
August . . . . . . . . .
September
638.5
641.1
649.4
12.4
11.8
11.7
322.9
324.5
324.5
5.6
5.0
4.9
181.6
176.7
181.8
598.7
606.4
619.7
169.0
166.9
164.7
206.1
220.2
224.9
418.9
431.8
422.6
112.9
120.5
118.4
264.3
267.3
272.0
October.
November
December
660.4
667.0
670.3
11.1
11.5
11.5
326.5
326.5
327.5
5.4
5.1
4.6
182.4
179.7
178.8
621.0
621.5
638.6
173.4
176.7
179.2
225.3
239.5
247.6
411.2
424.1
432.6
111.6
112.7
112.8
251.1
273.6
268.6
January . . . . . . . . .
February
March
678.3
685.8
690.6
11.1
10.9
10.9
329,2
331.1
331.9
4.3
4.7
3.4
181.0
171.1
171.3
687.6
699.6
736.1
185.3
182.3
178.4
275.9
263.4
261.1
457.2
457.2
485.3
125.3
128.7
128.5
259.5
259.5
260.0
April
May
June
695.4
699.6
703.8
10.0
9.4
8.1
332.7
333.3
334.7
3.1
2.3
3.0
171.4
170.3
166.6
776.0
744.6
711.2
177.9
178.0
175.8
285.4
277.1
272.3
495.0
489.6
468.7
124.9
122.5
119.6
252.0
P245.6
p242.6
July
August
September
705.9
708.0
713.0
6.8
6.4
6.8
336.6
336.6
336.9
2.5
3.4
4.2
164.3
178.9
180.7
701.3
728.8
738.6
167.2
172.0
178.3
256.7
274.3
287.0
447.5
478.6
497.0
121.4
128.7
127.6
P234.0
P252.5
p256.6
October
November
December
720.1
724.4
729.5
7.2
7.7
8.9
337.5
339.7
339.9
4.3
5.2
4,4
179.3
180.9
178.9
760.5
774.7
804.7
185.2
185.1
187.4
287.9
286.0
285.2
503.7
525.9
551.2
127.4
130.5
130.5
P257.1
p259.2
P256.0
736.8
744.2
749.4
10.7
11.1
10.4
341.3
343.5
344.3
5.3
4.5
4.0
186.7
196.8
195.2
839.5
851.9
900.4
195.1
202.0
213.4
294.3
307.9
317.8
578.1
585.1
592.3
147.2
164.1
165.0
P264.7
P281.5
P282.5
756.1
760.6
764.4
10.0
9.4
345.7
346.5
348.3
3.4
2.9
196.5
201.1
205.5
880.3
890.6
915.0
212.5
218.7
234.2
328.9
336.4
337.2
592.0
607.0
591.3
164.4
188.7
199.0
P284.5
P289.2
P294.1
209.4
204.8
P199.8
941.6
rp925.1
P925.6
234.8
rp237.3
P252.3
321.9
rp315.1
p316.9
568.4
597.0
P610.2
212.9
rp221.6
p236.2
P299.1
rp301.1
P295.4
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
1983
January
February
March
........
1984
1Q0K
130J
January . . .
February
March
., ,
April
May
June
July
August .
September
..
766.7
768.2
349.5
350.1
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
96
SEPTEMBER 1985
APPENDIXES
B. Current Adjustment Factors
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
. .
13. New business incorporations
1
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Aug. Sept.
Oct.
145 7 101 0
90 3
92 7
83.1
87 5 105 7
86.3
81 4
95 9 105 6 125 2
105.3 106.0
99.1 103.3
98.5
94.0 105.0
104.7
15. Profits after taxes per dollar
of sales,
manufacturing corporations2
33 Net change in mortgage debt
13
91.3 103.1
95.7
-1229 -2514
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding in current dollars'*
1985
July
Feb.
Jan.
108.8
1003
1376
939
-584
99.9 100.0 100.3 100.2 100.1
99.9
99.9
99,9
446
608
92.7
Dec.
96 9
95.7
100.0
815
-1691
Nov.
439
255
100.2
99.8
517. Defense Department
gross obligations
incurred1
119.0
96.2 104.1
98.9
87.8
80.9
88.5
86.9 117.7 112.7 105.4 101.8
525. Defense Department prime contract awards
105.5
96.6 114.5
94.3
86.4
84.9
75.7
78.6 191.6
80.5 100.1
543. Defense Department gross unpaid
obligationsoutstanding . .
103 3 103.2 103.1
103.7 101.4
98.9
97.0
93.8
98.6
99.7 100.1
100.1
570. Employment, defense products industries . . 100.2 100.0 100.0
580 Defense Department net outlays1
99.8
97.0
99.9 100.0
90.9
99.1 100.7
99.3 100.0 100.0 100,1
100.5
95.8 102.8 100.0 104.3
98.3
99.9 100.4
95.6 101.8
604. Exports of domestic agricultural products . 106.7 105.2 115.0 103.0 100.9
94.8
83.5
83.0
91.8 100.8 108.8 106.3
99.9 102.8 105.1
102.7
95.5
99.5 106.0
101.0
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
614. Imports of
petroleum and petroleum
products1 . . .
....
616. Imports of automobiles and parts
1
....
93.8
90.7 110.3
99.2
91.9
86.0
109.4
84.1
106.1
90.2
84.3
98.1
107.2 118.4 104.3
97,9
98.1
95.6
98.3
114.9 113.3 107.0 115.0 102.8
95.3
98.4
87.8
87.9 104,3
96.4
94.3
NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis rather than by the source agency. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST whenever they are available. For a description
of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, THE X-ll VARIANT OF THE CENSUS METHOD
II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM.
factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly
series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to
yield the seasonally adjusted net change. These factors are computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program.
**These factors apply only to the loans portion of this series.
97
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year
Jan.
114.
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960.,,
1961...
196 2 . . .
1963...
1964. . .
1965...
1966 . . .
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972.. .
1973.. .
1974...
1975.. .
1976...
1977 . . .
1978..,
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1.39
1.69
2.04
1.21
1.26
2.46
3.21
2.60
2.84
4.44
2.30
2.75
2.91
3.53
3.83
4.76
5.08
6.13
7.91
4.49
3.40
5.31
7,76
6.49
4.96
4.60
6.45
9.35
12.04
14.72
12.41
7.81
8.93
Mar.
Feb.
May
June
July
1952 . . .
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962. . .
1963...
1964..,
1965...
1966...
1967 , . .
1968,..
1969..,
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973,..
1974...
1975...
1976,..
1977...
1978...
1979, . .
1980..,
1981.. .
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1.55
1.77
1.94
0.95
1.75
2.66
3.26
1.84
3.41
2.95
2.38
2.78
3.16
3.55
5.10
7.01
5.20
7.13
5.33
7 ,04
4.06
8.02
7.75
6.16
5.28
5.15
7.07
9.26
8.13
14.70
11.91
9.12
10.13
4.01
8.67
8.74
6.46
5.15
5.50
7.04
9.45
9.26
15.61
9.01
9.39
10.49
4.65
8.48
8.36
6.38
5,08
5.77
7.84
10.18
10.32
14.95
8.20
9.05
10.41
4.72
7.16
7.24
6.08
4.93
6.19
8.13
11.47
11.58
13 .87
7.75
8.71
9.97
4.77
7.87
7.58
5,47
4.81
6.16
8.79
11.87
13.89
11.27
8.04
8.71
8.79
5.06
7.36
7.18
5.50
4.35
6.06
9.12
12.07
15.66
10.93
8.01
8.96
8.16
3.43
5.64
7.60
5.87
4.95
4.62
6.41
9.36
13.46
14.37
12.89
8.08
9.13
5.51
6.24
6.75
4.21
3.75
6.61
8.27
5.40
5.17
4.83
6.48
9.37
10.05
14.83
12.36
6.42
9.84
2.56
2,71
2.98
2.52
2.92
3.21
3.66
3.75
4.26
3.84
4,02
3.94
4.04
4.16
4.25
4.79
4.99
5.09
6.32
6.63
5.56
5.70
6.41
7.30
7,28
6.70
6.94
7.82
8.68
10.94
14.14
11 .48
11 .26
11.97
2.61
2.66
2.70
2.42
2.61
2.59
2.66
2.57
2.83
2.54
2.87
3.20
2.86
2.57
2.89
3.30
2.79
2.59
2.91
3.40
3.76
4.11
3,91
3.98
3.89
4.07
4.16
4.28
4.70
5.19
5.24
6.27
6.59
5.46
5.69
6.25
7.22
7.29
6,65
7.08
8.07
9.44
11.20
14.13
10.51
11.21
11.66
3.70
4.12
3.93
3.98
3.87
4.11
4.12
4.34
4.74
5.44
5.36
6.52
6.24
5.46
5.51
6,30
6.93
7.21
6.62
7.16
8.16
9.80
11.83
12.68
10.18
11 .32
11.25
3.80
4.27
3.88
4.06
3.87
4.14
4.14
4.43
4.65
5.36
5.66
6.81
5.97
5,62
5.63
6.35
6.77
7 .17
6.38
7.24
8.36
9.58
11.89
12.88
10.33
11.44
11.21
2.84
2.61
2.75
2.89
3.27
3.26
3.92
4.22
3.83
4.06
3.91
4.16
4.15
4,56
4.44
5.24
5.88
6.56
5.82
5.65
6.10
6.64
6.70
6,91
7.01
7.58
8.44
11.15
12.01
13.45
10.44
11.54
2.61
3.07
2.52
2.82
2.99
3 .43
3.15
4.06
4.11
3.80
3.89
3.98
4.16
4.14
4.58
4.71
5.30
5.91
6.82
5.88
5.66
6.23
7.05
6.97
6.89
7.10
7.85
8.44
10.02
12.66
12.94
10.35
12.69
3.01
2.49
2.93
3.13
3.63
3.57
4.16
3.83
3.97
3.98
4.01
4.14
4.20
4.78
4.93
5.07
6.14
6.65
5.75
5.63
6.60
7.27
7.09
6.79
6.98
7.93
8.48
10.43
13.60
12.20
11.26
12.34
2 !83
2,57
2.89
3.30
3 .53
3 17 5
4.17
3.91
4.01
3.88
4.11
4.14
4.35
4.70
5.33
5.42
6.53
6.27
5.52
5.61
6.30
6.97
7.22
6.55
7.16
8.20
9.61
11.64
13.23
10.34
11.32
11.37
2^4
2.55
2.84
3.08
3 .47
3.43
4.08
4.02
3.90
3.95
4.00
4.15
4.21
4.65
4.85
5.26
6.12
6.58
5.74
5.64
6.31
6.96
7 .00
6.78
7.06
7.89
8.74
10.81
12,87
12.23
10.84
11.99
5.54
6.49
3.72
6.05
7.99
5.54
5.05
4.61
6.32
9.46
15.53
13.48
12.49
8.30
9.44
3.72
6.29
8.23
5.69
4.88
4.54
6.31
9.49
14.00
13.63
12.82
8.25
9.6 9
3.65
6.35
8.43
5.32
5.18
4.94
6.43
9.58
9.15
16.30
12.15
8.19
9.90
3.87
7.19
8,14
5.19
5.44
5.00
6.71
9.05
7.00
14.56
12.11
8.82
9.94
116 .
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
5.38
7.00
3.83
3.26
Annual
4.36
5.01
5.01
5.92
7.72
3.81
3.64
5.62
6.06
3
.25
3,92
4.08
3.78
4.01
3.93
4.16
4.15
4.63
4.45
5.39
6.05
6.39
5.71
5.66
6.20
6.81
6.77
6.88
7,20
7.63
8.45
11.87
12.15
12.98
10.34
11.90
1.53
1.68
2.20
0.81
1.51
2.60
3.16
1.02
3.02
3.09
2.33
2.72
2.94
3 .48
3 ".88
4.60
3.66
IV Q
4.08
5.34
4.76
5.49
7.19
3.90
3.85
5.36
6.15
3.26
3.92
4.22
3.81
4.09
3.92
4.14
4.16
4.61
4.47
5.16
5.66
6.44
5.84
5.67
6.14
6.54
6.66
6.92
7.16
7.60
8,43
11.55
12.23
13,63
10.60
11.44
1.40
1.64
2.05
1.08
1 .26
2.38
3.17
1.84
2.80
3.94
2.38
2.74
2.91
3 .54
3^90
4.63
4.53
5.06
6.14
7.26
III Q
4.03
5.39
3.93
4.29
5.14
6.08
6.71
3.24
3.91
4.37
3.89
4.08
3.89
4.15
4.14
4,43
4.40
5.18
5,74
6.86
5.92
5,62
5.96
6.56
6.68
6.93
6.68
7.51
6.43
10,03
11.65
13.73
10.37
11.29
II Q
3.84
4.93
1 .64
1.88
2.09
0.89
1.88
2.61
3.40
1.69
3.36
2.29
2.40
2.84
3.32
2.47
2.70
2.89
2.53
2.78
2.93
IQ
1.73
2.13
1.63
1.17
2.56
3.23
3.10
2.61
4.57
2.27
2.62
2.86
3.52
1.59
1.82
2.10
0.71
1.62
2.33
3.16
0.96
3.24
2.40
2.27
2.94
3.14
2.40
2.71
2.83
2.62
2.78
2.85
Dec.
1.61
1.86
1.43
0.95
2.22
3.00
3.34
2.76
4.21
2.38
2.46
2,80
3.52
1.50
1.70
2.23
0.65
1.43
2.53
3.32
0.88
3.25
2.64
2.36
2.72
3.00
2.39
2.74
2.80
2.69
2.68
2.88
Nov.
1.61
1.78
1.40
0.99
2.26
2.96
3.59
2.79
4.12
2.43
2.35
2,75
3.45
1,58
1.71
2.20
0.78
1.49
2.65
3.04
1.05
2.85
3.39
2.29
2.69
2.92
3 .53
3.93
Oct.
©
1.65
1.79
1.88
1.01
2.09
2.85
3.58
2.48
4.00
2.49
2.30
2.79
3.38
3 .53
3.91
5.36
1.52
1.62
2.18
1.01
1.62
2.61
3.11
1.13
2.96
3.24
2.33
2.74
2.91
115 . YIELD ON LONG-TERM TREASURY BONDS
(PERCENT)
1951,..
Sept.
Aug.
1.42
1.66
2.08
1.05
1.34
2.31
3,14
1.35
2.85
3.44
2.42
2.72
2.90
3.55
3.94
1.39
1.57
2.02
0.98
1.16
2.37
3.16
1.56
2.71
3.95
2.41
2.75
2.92
4.55
4.97
6.16
7.16
3.77
3.18
5.56
7,06
5.58
4.85
4.66
6.46
9.27
12.81
14.90
13.78
8.13
9.03
Apr.
DISCOUNT RATE OH HEW ISSUES OP 91-DAY TREASURY BILLS
(PERCENT)
1.63
1.83
2.02
0.87
1.86
2.60
3.38
1.71
3.53
2.39
2.32
2.86
3.28
3.51
3!86
5.05
4.35
5.23
7.05
6.38
5.05
4.24
8.39
8.28
6.33
5.17
5.47
7.32
9.63
9.24
15.09
9.71
9.19
10.34
1.65
1.92
1.49
1.04
2.35
3.06
3.34
2,79
4.30
2.36
2.48
2.80
3.50
3.69
4!16
5.25
4.79
5.58
7.32
5.36
4.23
4.85
7.46
7.33
5.68
4.70
6.14
8.68
11.80
13.71
12.02
7.93
8.79
8.97
3." 95
4.68
4.33
5.34
6.69
6.44
4.34
4.07
7.03
7.87
5.82
5.00
5.26
7.22
10.04
11.61
14.08
10,72
8,62
9.57
®
2.56
2 ,64
2.97
2.48
2.82
3.07
2.63
2 . 57
3.11
2.54
2.81
2.97
2.65
2.61
3.13
2.55
2.82
2.§3
2.63
2.61
3.02
2 .47
2.91
3.00
2.57
2.70
3.02
2.48
2.95
3.17
3.12
4.01
4.18
3.80
3.89
3.97
4.20
4,15
4.55
4.51
5.2 8
5.84
6,53
5.75
5.74
6.11
7.04
7.05
6.73
7.13
7.74
8.44
10.83
12.62
12.84
3.14
4.08
4.16
3.7 3
3.88
3.97
4.16
4.14
4.57
4.76
5.40
5.85
6.94
5.96
5.64
6.25
7.09
7.01
7.01
7.17
7.87
8.5 5
9.82
12.96
12.67
10.19
12.17
10.21
12.89
3.20
4.09
3.98
3.88
3.90
4.00
4.13
4.14
4.63
4.86
5.23
6.05
6.99
5.94
5.59
6.32
7.02
6.86
6.92
6.99
7.94
8.32
9.40
12.39
13.32
10.64
13,00
3.36
4.11
3.66
3.90
4.02
4,01
4.13
4.15
4.75
4.86
5.09
6.07
6.57
5.91
5.59
6.53
7.18
6.69
6.85
6.98
8.10
8.35
9.83
13.05
12.97
11.10
12.82
3.60
4.10
3.79
4.00
3.98
3.99
4.14
4.19
4.80
4.95
5.04
6.02
6.75
5.78
5.59
6.85
7.33
7,11
6.82
7.01
7.88
8.42
10.53
13.61
12.15
11 .42
12.23
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
YIELD ON HEW ISSUES OF HIGH-GRADE CORPORATE BONDS
(PERCENT)
©
1951.. .
2.74
2.78
2.90
3.06
2.98
3.24
3.20
3.01
2.91
3.09
3.36
3.22
2.81
3.22
3.04
3 ! X7
3.00
1.99
3.20
+ .28
3.62
+ .58
5.34
• .63
+ .56
+ .22
en
4^45
4.93
5.53
6.57
7.29
9.00
7.63
7.36
7.61
8.32
9.17
8.97
7.96
8.70
9.47
11.65
14.01
16.34
12.04
12.65
3.26
2.88
3,09
3.07
4 .13
3.53
2.86
3.11
3.55
4.23
3.80
2.90
3.15
3.48
4.41
3.82
2.91
3.11
3.56
4.81
3.59
2.94
3.14
3.56
3.46
2.94
3.41
4.02
3.60
3.01
3.27
3.96
3.09
2.84
3.15
3.94
3.13
2.94
3.17
4.29
3,23
2,87
i .27
• .26
3.28
2.87
3.07
3.17
3.55
2.96
3.27
3.85
3.15
2.88
3.20
4,16
3.42
2.90
3.17
3.68
4.60
5.24
4,43
4.53
4,25
4.39
3.41
2.74
3.14
3.25
4.18
4.53
4.98
4.37
4.41
4.28
4.45
3.09
3.14
3.72
2.90
3.12
3.53
3.04
1953!"
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957.. .
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963.. .
1964.
196 5 ! ! . '
1966...
1967.. .
1968...
1969...
1970,..
1971...
1972...
1973.. .
1974..,
1975., .
1976.. .
1977.. .
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981.. .
1982...
1983...
1984.. .
1985...
4,60
4.97
4.57
4.37
4.35
4.92
4.95
4.67
4.32
4.36
5.00
4.91
4.82
4.30
4.32
4.95
4.79
4.81
4.41
4.90
4.65
4.79
4.39
5.28
4.64
4.72
4.28
5.37
4.75
4.60
4.26
4.35
5.14
4 .82
4.52
4.23
t .44
.27
t.94
t.58
.28
3.74
4.57
5.19
4.48
4.50
3.65
4.84
4.94
4.69
4.33
4.27
5.04
4.6 9
4.77
4.36
4.42
5.26
4.84
4.57
4.26
4.02
4.93
4.92
4.63
4.36
4 .49
4 .49
4 .48
A0
4.45
4.49
4.46
4.49
4^5
5.09
5.35
6.57
7.33
8.84
7.54
7.57
7.67
8.21
8.64
8.71
8.18
8.70
9.52
13.23
14.60
16.35
12.11
12.80
5.33
5.55
6.80
7.76
9.00
7.62
7.53
7,75
8.60
9.46
8.73
8.33
8.70
9.65
14.08
14.49
15.72
11,81
13.36
5.38
5.59
6.79
7.54
9.09
7.76
7.77
7.70
9.04
9.61
8.68
8.30
8.88
9.69
13.36
15.00
15.62
11.58
5.55
5.90
7.00
7.62
9,53
8.25
7.61
7.69
9.39
9.76
9.00
8.38
9,00
9.82
11.61
15.68
15.37
11.24
13.64
14.41
5.67
6.06
7 .02
8.04
9.70
8.15
7.63
7.73
9.59
9.27
8.90
8.08
9.15
9.51
11.12
14.97
15.96
11.90
14.49
5.81
6.06
6.91
8.06
9.09
8.24
7.72
7.97
10.18
9.56
8.76
8.12
9.27
9.47
11 .48
15.67
15.75
12.46
14.25
6,04
6.30
6.54
8.05
9.08
8.14
7.59
8.45
10.30
9,71
8.59
8.06
6.83
9.57
12.31
16.34
14.64
12.89
13.54
6.14
6.33
6.69
8.36
9 .00
7.90
7.72
8.10
10.44
9.89
8.37
8.11
8.78
9.87
12.74
16.97
13.78
12.68
13.37
6 .04
6.53
6.88
8.46
9.14
7,72
7 .66
7 .97
10.29
9.54
8.25
8.21
9.14
11.17
13.17
16.96
12.63
12.54
13.02
6.11
6.87
7 .00
8.94
8.97
7.67
7.46
7 .95
9.22
9.48
8.17
8.26
9.30
11.52
14.10
15.53
11.89
12.86
12,40
5.98
6.93
7 .28
9.22
8.13
7,54
7.50
8.09
9.47
9.59
7.90
8.39
9.30
11.30
14.38
15.55
12.15
12.87
12.47
5.12
5.48
6.65
7.46
8.95
7.60
7.49
7.68
8.38
9.16
8.80
8.16
8.70
9.55
12.99
14.37
16.14
11.99
12.94
5.53
5.85
6.94
7.73
9.44
8.05
7.67
7.71
9.34
9.61
8.86
8.25
9.01
9.67
12.03
15.22
15.65
11.5?
14.18
6.00
6.23
6.71
8.16
9.06
8.09
7.68
8.17
10.31
9.72
8.57
8.10
8.96
9.64
12.18
16.33
14.72
12.68
13.72
6.04
6.78
7.05
8.87
8.75
7.64
7.54
8.00
9.66
9.54
8.11
8.29
9.25
11.33
13.88
16.01
12.22
12.76
12.63
4 .47
4.61
5.67
6.08
6.84
8.06
9.05
7.85
7.59
7.89
9.42
9.51
8.59
8.20
6.98
10.05
12.77
15.48
14.68
12 .25
13.37
NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
(SEPTEMBER 1985)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
117.
Apr.
May
June
1951...
1952...
1953...
1.61
2.09
2.43
1.58
2.07
2.55
1.74
2.08
2.65
1.94
2.04
2.65
2.00
2.06
2.78
2.19
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964.. .
1965...
1966...
1967.. .
196 8 . . .
1969...
1970...
1971...
197 2 . . .
197 3 . . .
2.40
2.50
3.18
2.91
3.42
3.72
3.40
3.34
3.10
3.22
3.06
3.52
3.54
4.29
4.85
6.65
5.36
5.12
5.05
2 .44
2 .44
3.00
3.02
3.36
3.60
3.31
3.21
3.15
3.14
3.09
3.64
3.52
4.31
4.98
6.36
5.23
5.28
5.13
2.44
2,57
3.10
3.06
3.30
3.56
3.45
3.14
3.05
3.28
3.18
3.72
3.55
4.54
5.26
6.03
5.17
5.31
5.29
2.41
2.70
3.13
2.96
3.39
3.56
3.50
3.06
3.10
3.28
3.15
3.56
3.60
4.34
5.19
6.49
5.37
5.43
5.15
1975!!!
1976...
1977.,.
1978...
1979...
6*82
7.07
5.87
5.71
6.47
7.35
9.68
13.28
9.50
9.63
6.39
6.94
5.89
5.62
6.31
8.16
10.10
12.97
9.58
9.64
6.74
6.92
5.89
5.61
6.33
9.17
10.16
12.82'
9.20
9.93
4.08
4.26
4.34
4.75
4.56
4.73
4.08
4.27
4.34
4.69
4 .56
4.70
5.36
5,56
5.58
4.12
4.29
4.34
4.64
4.59
4.68
5.35
5.51
5.57
5.89
5.68
5,48
5.45
5.45
5.82
5.65
5.47
5.45
5.45
6.00
6.35
6.83
8.05
9.20
7.32
7.45
7.63
8.66
1980 , , .
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
2.06
2.38
2.75
2.09
2.38
2.60
2.34
2.51
2.95
3.42
3.45
3.62
3.53
3.42
3.02
3.20
3.25
3.40
3.94
4.30
4.49
6.09
6.39
5.06
5,18
5.05
2.05
2.38
2.62
2.3 2
2.46
3.16
3.37
3.32
3.55
3.40
3.41
3.04
3.30
3.18
3.46
3.86
4.34
4.60
6.30
5.93
5.20
5.02
5.18
7.39
6.30
5.64
6.13
7,08
7,43
6.29
5.49
6.19
7.30
Q
YIELD OH MUNICIPAL BONDS, IO-BOND AVERAGE
(PERCENT)
1955 . . .
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1961!!!
1962...
196 3 . . .
196 4 . . .
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969.. .
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975..
1976" .
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
5*58
5.60
6.00
5.69
5.52
5.45
5.45
5.70
6.62
6.81
2.13
2.99
2.02
2.24
2.90
2,38
2.68
3.27
2.92
3.58
3.60
3.43
3.11
3.11
3.20
3.17
3.65
3.89
4.54
5.33
7.00
5.90
5.30
5.14
2.41
2.54
3.41
2 .97
3.72
3.55
3.52
3.26
3 .21
3.20
3 .24
3.77
3.96
4.50
5.76
6 .96
5.95
5.34
5.18
2.54
2.65
3.40
3.09
3.71
3.50
3.52
3.28
3.22
3.18
3.27
3.95
4.02
4.33
5.75
6.53
6.06
5.41
5.40
2.60
2.80
3.54
3.36
3.58
3.34
3.52
3.23
3.13
3.19
3.24
4.12
3.99
4.21
6.00
6.20
5.82
5.30
5.48
2.01
2.30
2.90
2.31
2.58
2.94
3.54
3.54
3.78
3.42
3.53
3.11
3.20
3.23
3.35
4.12
4.12
4.38
6.26
6.25
5.37
5.36
5.10
6.95
6.60
5.73
5.80
6.29
8.63
10.62
12.59
9.05
9.96
6.97
6.87
5.75
6.03
6.25
7.59
10.78
11.95
9.11
10.49
6.95
6.87
5.62
6.22
6.13
7.63
10.67
12.45
9.52
10.67
7.07
6.79
5.63
6.28
6.13
7.17
6.61
5.62
6.12
6.20
7 .44
6.51
5.51
6.09
6.52
4.19
4.29
4,27
4,29
4'.62
4.60
4.71
5.35
5.43
5.58
7.* 49
7.55
8.99
9.06
8.45
9.18
10.24
12.60
14.23
17.38
12.87
13.08
6 .46
6.78
7.99
9.29
7.46
7.56
8.54
9*04
8.55
10 .24
14*. 7 9
17.10
12.65
13.20
..
8.65
9.35
10.26
14.63
15.04
16.41
12.68
13.68
5.77
5.64
5.46
5.45
5.45
.
r.64
2.08
2.54
2.06
2.23
2.93
2.07
2.38
2.66
1.95
2.19
2.7 3
2.36
2.57
3.22
3.04
3.34
3.68
3.40
3.47
3.07
3.27
3.13
3.54
3.86
4,43
4.82
6.82
5.46
5.21
5.05
5.12
2.43
2.50
3.09
3.00
3.36
3.63
3,39
3.23
3.10
3.21
3.11
3.63
3.54
4.38
5.03
6.35
5.25
5.24
5.16
2.40
2.64
3.27
2.95
3.56
3.57
3.48
3.14
3.14
3.23
3.19
3.66
3.82
4.46
5.43
6.82
5.74
5.36
5.16
2*57
2.80
3.49
3.33
3.69
3.42
3.52
3.21
3.18
3.20
3.29
4.06
4.04
4.31
6.00
6.33
5.75
5.36
5.33
2.51
3.11
3.28
3.37
3.62
3.44
3.43
3.04
3.26
3.19
3.47
3.89
+ .36
+ .64
&.40
5.93
5.16
$.08
5.12
2,39
2.48
2.76
3.28
3.16
3.56
3.52
3.46
3.16
3.17
3.21
3.26
3.81
3.94
4.45
5.72
6.35
5.48
5.26
5.19
7.31
5.94
5,57
6,50
7.22
6*65
6.98
5.88
5.65
6.37
5.96
6.96
6.78
5.70
6 .02
6.22
7.95
10.69
12 .33
9.23
10.37
4.25
4.29
11.14
12.28
9,53
10.42
12.26
11.23
9.72
9.99
12.92
10 .66
9.58
10.10
12.83
9.69
9.66
10.25
11.89
10.06
9.75
10.17
12.91
9.96
9.89
9.95
4.59
4.63
4,78
5.32
5.39
5,64
4.29
4.30
4.67
4.57
4.63
4.81
5.35
5.37
5.71
4.31
4.30
4.7 4
4.56
4.64
4.81
5.38
5.35
5.75
4.31
4.30
4.82
4.56
4.67
4.87
4.30
4.30
4.86
4.56
4.70
4.92
4.27
4.31
4.82
4.56
4.27
4.32
4.81
4.56
4.26
4,32
4.78
4,56
4.09
4.27
4.34
4.69
5.37
5.80
5.50
4.95
5.63
5.57
5'.6*0
5.59
5.68
5,58
5.68
5.57
5.69
5.56
5,45
6.32
6 ,44
5.44
6.45
6.51
7.52
8.35
9.16
7.89
7.54
7.89
9.46
5.46
5.44
6.51
6.53
7.42
8.36
9.11
7.97
7.54
8.19
9.85
5.46
5.45
6.58
6.60
7.35
8.36
9.07
7.92
7.55
10.30
5.46
5.46
6.63
6.63
7.28
8.40
9.01
7.84
7.56
9.18
10.38
8*99
8.77
9.96
10.46
12.39
16.76
16.29
14.23
14.58
8.93
8.77
9.81
10.58
13.54
17.96
14.61
13.78
14.21
8.82
8.74
9.81
11.37
14.26
18.55
14.03
13.55
13.99
8.06
9.11
7.75
7.53
7.79
9.46
8'.82
8.64
9.44
9*74
13*45
15.91
16.31
12,50
13.80
119 .
9.03
10.61
11.99
16.33
16.19
12.41
15.01
9.05
8.77
10.49
11 .85
16.31
16.73
12.96
14.91
1 .37
2.44
2.93
2.72
2.48
3.99
1.45
2.14
2.91
3.48
3.90
4.42
4.94
4.60
6.30
8.98
4.14
3.50
5.94
9.65
7.13
4.87
4.61
6.70
10.07
13.82
19.08
13.22
8.68
9.56
1 .29
2 .50
3.00
1.67
2.40
3.97
2 .54
2.37
3.00
3.48
3.98
4 .60
5.00
4.72
6.64
8.98
3.72
3.29
6.58
8.97
6.24
4.77
4.68
6.78
10.06
14.13
15.93
14.78
8.51
9.59
1.35
2.50
2.96
1.20
2.80
3.84
2.02
2.70
2.98
3.43
4.04
4.65
4.53
5,05
6.79
7.76
3.71
3.83
7.09
9.35
5.54
4.84
4.69
6.79
10.09
17.19
14.70
14.68
8.77
9.91
1.43
2.62
3.00
1.26
2.96
3.92
1.50
2.69
2.90
3.47
4.09
4.67
4.05
5.76
7,41
8.10
4.15
4.17
7.12
10.51
5.49
4.82
4.73
6.89
10.01
17.61
15.72
14.94
8.80
10.29
FEDERAL FUNDS RATE
(PERCENT)
1.43
2.75
3.00
0.63
2.90
3.85
1.98
2.29
3.00
3.50
4.10
4.90
3.94
6.12
8.67
7.94
4.63
4.27
7.84
11.31
5 .22
5.29
5.35
7.36
10 .24
10.98
18.52
14.45
8.63
10.32
1.62
2.71
3 .00
0.93
3.39
3.32
1 .73
2.68
2.99
3.50
4.04
5.17
3.98
6 .07
8.90
7 .60
4.91
4.46
8.49
11 .93
5.55
5.48
5.39
7.60
10 .29
9.47
19.10
14.15
8.98
11.06
\. 7 4
7.38
>,18
5.57
j.27
7.20
1.62
1 J.54
J.9O
S.77
10.12
7.05
5.64
5.68
5.02
S.52
b.ou
11.33
11.66
9.51
10.10
1.68
2 .74
2.99
0.68
3.44
3.23
1.16
2.71
3.02
3.42
4.09
5.30
3.79
6.02
8.61
7.21
5.31
4.55
10.40
12.92
6.10
5.31
5.42
7.81
10.47
9.03
19.04
12.59
9.37
11.23
4.70
4.59
5.63
5.60
6.23
5*55
5.58
5.70
5.55
5.70
5.54
5.69
5.53
5.90
5.67
5.45
5.49
5.45
5.51
6.81
6.77
7.36
8.48
8.90
7.62
7.57
8.86
5.45
5.45
6.48
6,41
...
5.45
5.62
6.77
6.81
.7.50
8.62
8.40
7.59
7.56
8.78
9.51
5*61
5.45
5.45
5.45
8.45
8.81
10.04
12.41
14.47
15.98
12.82
13.23
12.90
8.28
8.96
10.23
12.24
14.08
16.43
12.80
13.25
12.99
8.55
8.81
9.98
14*38
17.43
12.99
13.23
13.43
6.81
7.47
7.58
8*16
9.12
7.67
7.52
7.80
9.36
8.97
8*55
10.25
14.69
16.96
12,73
13.32
12.43
16.18
16.41
12.62
14.57
4.27
4.32
4.80
4.56
5.41
1
5.68
5.57
5.45
5.46
5,45
6.57
6.59
7.35
8.37
9.06
7.91
7.55
4.23
4.30
4.60
4.65
4.87
4 .77
5.34
5.40
5.64
5.61
5.60
6.23
6.65
7.29
8.48
8.97
7.75
7.57
8.97
10.13
4.31
4.30
4,81
4.56
5.62
5,59
5*49
5.70
5.54
5.45
5.45
5.54
...
5,60
5.46
5.45
5.47
6.74
7.38
8.53
8.76
7,65
7.57
8.87
6.56
7*53
10.18
8.91
8.76
9.86
10.80
13.40
17.76
14.98
13.85
14.26
8.43
8,86
10.08
14.31
16.61
12.87
13.24
13.11
16.31
15.30
13.11
13.82
©
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1.90
2 .74
3.24
1.53
3.50
2.98
2.00
2.93
3.49
3.50
4.12
5.53
3.89
6.03
9.19
6.61
5.57
4.80
10.50
12.01
6.14
5.29
5.90
8.04
10.94
9.61
17.82
10.12
9.56
11.64
1 .07
2.18
2.95
3.50
1 .76
3.76
2.60
1.88
2.90
3.48
3.45
4.01
5.40
4.00
5.78
9.15
6.29
5.55
4.87
10.78
11.34
6.24
5.25
6.14
8.45
11.43
10,87
15.87
10.31
9.45
11.30
NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
7*23
6.64
5.59
6.16
6.28
8.58
12,11
11 .39
9.61
10.17
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1951 . . .
1952 . . .
1953 . . .
1955...
1956.. .
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974.,.
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
Annual
2.04
2 .08
2.81
8.23
9.98
13.02
9.43
9.73
6.29
6.94
8.06
9.10
7.37
7.50
7.73
9.17
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
2.15
2.15
2.98
(PERCENT)
1951.. .
1952...
1953...
1954...
III Q
II Q
0 .90
2.24
2.96
3.50
1.80
3.98
2.47
2.26
2.90
3.50
3.36
4 .08
5.53
. 3.88
5.92
9.00
6.20
5.20
5.04
10.01
10.06
5.82
5.03
6 .47
8.96
13.77
12.81
15.08
9.71
9.48
9.99
0 .91
2.35
2.88
3.22
2.27
4.00
2.44
2.62
2.94
3.48
3.52
4.10
5.77
4.12
5.81
8.85
5.60
• •91
.06
11 >.O3
.45
.22
*.95
.51
.76
13.18
15.85
13.31
9.20
9.34
9.43
1 .26
2.48
2.94
2,98
2.42
3.99
1.98
2,33
2.93
3.38
3.85
4.32
5.40
4.51
6.02
8.97
4.90
4 .14
5.33
9.95
8.53
5.20
4.65
6.56
10 .03
13,78
18.90
12,37
8.95
9.47
8.38
1.34
2.48
.96
.86
.56
.93
.00
1.40
1.96
J.46
.97
+ .56
+ .82
t.79
6.58
8 .57
3.86
3.54
6.54
9.32
6.30
4.83
4.66
6.76
10 .07
15.05
16.57
14.23
8,65
9.69
1.49
2.69
3.00
0.94
3 .08
3.70
1.74
2.55
2.96
3.49
4.08
4.91
3.99
5.98
8.33
7 .88
4.56
4.30
7.82
11 .25
5.42
5.20
5.16
7.28
10.18
12.69
17.78
14,51
8 .80
10.56
1.92
2.81
3.24
1.32
3.57
2.94
1.68
2.85
3.33
3.46
4.07
5.41
3.89
5,94
8.9 8
6.70
5.48
4.74
10.56
12,09
6,16
5.28
5.82
8.10
10.95
9.84
17.58
11.01
9.46
11.39
1.02
2.36
2.93
3.23
2.16
3.99
2.30
2.40
2.92
3.45
3.58
4.17
5.57
4.17
5.92
8.9V
5.57
4.75
5.14
10.00
9.35
5.41
4.88
6.51
9.58
13.58
15.85
13.59
9.29
9.43
9.27
1.78
2.73
3.11
1 .57
3.30
3.22
1.96
2.68
3.18
3.50
4.07
5.11
4.22
5.66
8.21
7.17
4.66
4.44
8.74
10.51
5.82
5.05
5.54
7.93
11.19
13.36
16.38
12.26
9.09
10.22
(SEPTEMBER 1985)
99
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Feb.
Jan.
Mar.
Apr,
May
June
1951...
1952...
1953.,.
1954.. ,
1955..,
1956...
1957...
1958. ..
1959. ..
I960...
1961...
1962.. .
1963.. .
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970,, .
1971...
1972...
1973.,.
1974...
1975.. .
1976.. .
1977 .. .
1978...
1979.. .
1980.. .
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984..,
1985.. .
58.7
55.5
59.7
55.6
64.1
67.0
6 5.4
62.2
71.4
72.9
70.9
78.8
81.6
87.2
94.5
99.9
97.4
104.4
112.2
107.5
108.6
119.2
132.4
128.7
107,7
126.1
134,5
141.0
147.7
141.4
142.1
135.1
145.2
164.5
58.2
55.6
59.8
56.1
65.2
66.7
65.3
61.6
72.3
72.1
71.4
79.9
82.4
88.2
94.8
100.8
97.0
105.5
112.1
106.6
110 .2
120.7
134.1
128.0
107.6
128.0
136.5
142.8
147.5
140.4
140.4
135.7
147.4
166.5
910C.
1951.. ,
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956. . .
1957 . . .
1958...
1959.. .
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963., .
1964.. .
1965.. .
1966. . .
1967...
1968,..
1969.. .
1970., .
1971.. .
1972.. .
1973.. .
1974.. .
1975...
1976...
1977.. .
1978.. .
1979...
1980...
1981.. .
1982.. .
1983...
1984...
1985..,
25.5
2.2
12.9
4.4
20 . 8
-3.5
-10.4
1.9
24.7
-4.8
8.9
0.0
9.3
7.1
10,7
10.1
13.2
0.0
7.8
-16.2
15.5
12,9
9.5
0.0
-15.3
37.5
0.0
-11.2
4.2
8.0
-7.3
-9.3
43.4
8.4
17.3
1951 .
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
m.9
122.2
134.2
127.8
107.8
128.8
138,4
144.9
149.3
137.4
141 .7
134.7
150.2
167.2
56.7
55,4
59.7
56.7
66.1
67.4
64.8
62.2
74.0
70.9
73.9
79.6
83.9
89.3
95.0
101.5
97.1
104.7
112.7
104.5
112.9
123.0
133.4
126.1
111.0
129.3
138,5
146.3
146.4
133.4
144.6
136.0
152.5
168.1
56,3
55.9
59.1
57.3
66.5
66.3
65.0
63.4
74.2
71.0
74.8
78.7
84.7
90.2
95.6
100.2
97.9
105.4
112.2
105.1
113.7
122.9
133.5
125.5
113.4
130.5
138
146
147.6
130.9
144.5
136.2
154,4
168.2
55.1
57.1
58.1
57.9
66.7
66.0
65.3
64.7
73.7
71.1
75.7
77.9
84
89
95.3
99.4
99.2
106.
111.
105.
113.
123.
133.
123.
115.
131.
139.8
146.9
146.5
132.0
143.2
135.5
157.3
166.7
Sept. Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
54.9
58.7
55.8
60.9
67.1
66.4
63.5
69.4
72.7
71.2
77.5
80.0
86.3
92.8
97.0
96.7
102.5
110.3
110,7
104.4
115.5
129.4
131.0
113.5
122.0
132.2
141.9
147 . 9
141.7
142.4
136.9
138.6
162.4
164.2
54.9
58.9
55.
62.3
67.5
66 . 4
62.7
70.4
71.9
70.8
78.5
80.8
86.5
93.1
98.0
96.5
103.2
110.8
109.5
105.0
116.5
130.3
131.1
111.2
122.4
133.5
141 .6
147.6
140.1
143.4
137.0
139.4
162.5
165.2
55.4
59.1
55.4
63.1
67.2
66.0
62.1
70.1
73.2
70,4
78.8
81 .0
86.7
93.7
99.1
96.4
104.4
111.5
109.1
107.3
118.0
131 .4
128.7
109 .2
122.8
134.5
142.4
147.2
140.5
143.0
136.2
140.9
163.4
164.1
58.3
55.6
59.9
55.9
65.1
66.9
65.3
61.9
72.5
71.9
71.7
79.6
82.4
87.9
94.8
100.9
97.1
105.2
112.0
106.5
110.2
120.7
133.6
128.2
107 .7
127.6
136.5
142 .9
148.2
139.7
141 . 4
135.2
147.6
166.1
56.0
56.1
59.0
57.3
66.4
66.6
65.0
63.4
74.0
71.0
74.8
78.7
84.4
89.8
95.3
100.4
98.1
105.4
112.0
105.0
113.4
123.1
133.3
125.1
113.4
130.5
139.1
146.5
146.8
132.1
144.1
135.9
154.7
167.7
-6.0
4.4
6.2
0.0
7!4
0.0
8.1
25.9
-19.6
24.2
1.5
12.3
2.8
5.2
13.9
-1.2
2.3
-4.2
-11.7
20.2
16.0
0.9
-1.9
2.3
7.8
18.0
19.1
15.7
-22.8
11.7
-8.5
25.3
5.2
1 .4
-22.2
-8.3
-7.7
13.6
1.6
5.5
-8.8
3.9
5.0
1.7
21.7
-5.8
10.6
12.9
-2.5
-4.6
2.5
-10.8
11.3
-10.8
11.3
8.1
-6.9
-14.8
42.1
4.8
0.9
12.2
-21.0
-29.8
27.5
12.2
20.0
6.7
-6.9
-8.1
11.4
-11.4
13.5
7.5
-17.9
3.8
25.8
3.3
1.7
15.6
-12.8
12.1
12.8
7.8
-14.3
10.3
8.3
-5.2
7.1
6.8
-1.0
0,9
-5.6
29.3
11.7
3.5
0.8
10.3
-20.3
-0.B
1 .8
16.0
0.7
3.7
-22,8
29.0
-18.5
13.3
3.7
-5.3
5.7
27.6
-7.8
1.7
15.4
-11.5
-2.8
-3.9
-3.7
-9.2
17.2
7.0
-10.2
4.7
-2.1
4.0
-3.5
-15.1
28.6
10.6
8.1
4.2
-8.6
10.6
-10.3
-6.0
25.0
-10.2
2.9
3.2
2.9
7.0
5.2
19.8
-0.4
-4.1
-0.3
22.3
-12.3
14.0
6.5
11.3
6.2
6.6
11.8
2.4
5.2
0.8
-17
10.7
-12.5
13.5
4.3
-5.9
0.2
19.1
0.2
1.7
17.6
-10.0
6.6
7.3
0.5
-9.4
10.0
1.5
-1.4
0.3
6.0
3.7
-3.2
-11.8
33.3
9.0
4.2
5.7
-6,4
-13.2
5.5
2.7
20.3
-0.9
-0.1
54.5
56.8
58.2
58.7
67.4
66.4
65.2
66.2
73.4
71.4
75.7
78.7
84.3
90.8
95.5
99.1
100.1
106.9
110.2
104.8
113.3
124.4
132.7
123.5
118.2
132.2
138.5
145.4
145.2
135.1
142.9
136.2
158.2
163.9
2,1
2.9
6.9
5,2
19.7
-0.6
-4.2
-0.6
22.2
-12.5
13.7
6,2
11.3
8.1
6.6
11.8
5.1
0.7
-12.6
18,3
15.0
8.8
-2.8
-5.0
21.0
3!4
-0,3
0.9
-8.1
-3.7
25.0
10.2
6.2
I'.t
5.S
-8.^
-3.6
-2.9
29.1
9.6
9.6
2.1
-12.9
-0.7
0.0
8.2
13.1
2.4
-3.6
0.0
15.4
-10.5
18.0
4.1
11.8
10.0
2.1
6.6
- 1 .2
1.2
-10.7
16.8
13,4
3.1
15.9
-3.5
-20.8
21.7
9.0
1.5
-12.4
2.2
.6
.8
.2
.4
.8
12.2
10.9
-6.0
20.5
-5.9
11.6
9.4
3.4
-2.4
3.8
-0.4
0.4
-5.5
13.3
7.5
-1.8
-7.6
23.4
8.0
7.2
10.5
0.3
- 2 4 .4
12.2
1.5
20.4
4.1
-0.7
-18.0
9.6
- 1 2 .7
13.5
4.3
-6.4
0,0
18.6
0.0
1.7
17.6
-ioa
6.4
7.0
0.4
-9.5 .
9 .8
1.1
-1.8
0.0
5.8
3.6
- 3 .2
-11.9
33.2
9.0
4.1
5 .6
-7.3
-14.8
4.3
2 .4
20.3
-1.2
-0.2
-14.6
10.5
-9.7
14.9
8,1
-5.8
2.5
28.3
-3,2
2.9
10.1
-4.4
1.9
6.9
2.1
-9.1
12.9
8,7
-8.6
1.2
1.4
4.6
- 2 .1
-8.0
28.6
9.3
0,0
-2.4
-3.2
5.2
-4.6
0.6
15.8
-9.6
5,1
-12.3
-6.1
2.1
17.9
13.3
7.5
-1.8
31.7
-4.8
5.2
0.0
13.0
-2.8
1 2 ,,7
.5
-3.6
11.4
10.7
-10.3
-7.7
-2.1
11.2
-3.5
-2.9
27.9
5.6
-1K6
-10.1
32.1
-2.5
6.4
7.1
-18.4
8.9
-14.7
12.0
-11.6
7.9
6.2
1.2
0.6
28.5
-5,8
2.3
10.6
3 .1
0.0
5.9
0.8
-7.4
17 . 4
4,2
-6.6
-1.5
0,0
10.5
-5.9
-15.6
21.3
4.4
4,7
-0.5
-5.7
-0.3
12.2
-8.7
6.6
76.7
79.3
84.7
91.5
95.8
98.3
101.9
106.5
110.3
104.7
113.7
126.0
131.5
120.3
119.0
131.9
140.5
146.2
144.5
138.3
142.4
136.1
158.9
164.4
55.9
59.7
67.9
66.3
64.2
68.7
73.3
71.5
76.4
79.9
85.7
92.7
96.4
97.3
102.3
108.1
110.8
104.9
114.6
127.5
130.9
116.5
120.6
132.4
141 .1
146.8
144.5
141.2
139.3
137.5
160.0
165.7
-8.5
15.8
-17.1
-6.0
1.8
1.8
-1.8
26.3
-4.8
0.0
17.1
9.5
5.8
9.7
3.8
-9.3
23.8
-4.4
1.1
-1.1
4.3
16 .6
-10.3
-27.0
8.4
-2.7
18.8
6.8
-5.6
32.4
-4.1
-0.9
5.4
3.7
8.1
100
Annual
4.5
-9.7
-2.1
27.0
0.0
4.2
-10.2
31.4
11.5
4.2
2 .2
16.5
-3!5
-15.4
23.5
3.3
1.7
-4.6
9.5
15.1
16,9
7.8
-11.5
4.8
19.6
5.6
2.3
9.9
15.3
-5.3
-32.0
17.4
4.6
5.2
K8
-12.3
12.9
-9.4
-4.9
18.7
1.5
8.7
1.3
7.7
-7.2
2 .4
27.3
-1.1
-5.6
9.8
19.4
0.9
-26.9
14.9
-1.8
7.0
9.4
-20.9
10.7
-18.8
10.0
19.6
-10.3
0.0
-14.1
18.7
-12.4
-6.5
16.6
12.7
2.8
3.9
13.1
-2.5
8.5
5.6
-12.3
7.1
10.9
8.7
0.9
-21.8
4.0
12.5
-2.5
-2.4
-12.7
8.8
0.9
7 .2
0.7
7.6
-10.9
-5.0
24.0
-6.6
4.7
3 .0
2 ,8
8.0
14,3
-1.2
14.9
7.9
-4.3
29.7
16.6
10.6
-19.9
-19.6
4.0
9.4
7.0
-3.2
3.5
-3.3
-6.8
13.7
6.9
-7.7
28.3
-23.2
13.1
8.6
9.9
-2.9
15.5
-14.3
13.0
7.4
1.8
-6.6
27.1
- 2 .2
2.3
3.8
10.7
5.8
13.1
4.7
-8.2
13.1
6.2
-1.4
-2.3
3.9
14.3
-6.4
-21.6
17 .6
2.5
3.8
-0.3
-5.3
30.9
-10.5
6.0
7 .0
-2 .4
3.0
14.1
-15.5
15.9
-1.8
0.0
-10.0
20.8
-3.8
-1.1
9.9
6.8
9.8
9.1
6.4
-9.3
9.9
13.3
1.8
-1.5
8.0
17.1
-5.0
-28.7
13.5
0.0
10.2
7.1
-9.3
23.4
-15.8
7.2
11.0
0.7
6.0
10.1
-13.2
29.5
0.0
-0.6
-14.0
18.3
-6.4
-3.3
9.7
7.8
8.8
7.2
,5
-7 .1
5.2
17 .2
-2.9
1.2
10.2
14.4
-1.2
-27.0
11 .
4.
3!
-11.
15.
-14.
10.1
9.4
2.0
54.4
57.8
57.1
58.9
67.6
66.4
64.8
67.5
73.3
71.4
76.3
79.3
84.9
91.7
95,9
98.2
101.4
107.2
110.4
104.8
113.9
126.0
131 .7
120.1
119.3
132.2
140.0
146.1
144.7
138.2
141.5
136.6
159.0
164.7
55.1
136.7
139.6
162.8
164.5
56.0
57.1
57.9
58.6
66.6
66.5
64.5
65.7
73.1
71.3
75.2
79.6
84.5
90.6
96.0
99.0
100.0
107.2
111.1
105.5
113.5
125.0
132.2
121.2
115.7
130.9
139.4
145.8
145.1
138.2
140.9
136.8
156.0
165.7
5.3
-0.4
-3.4
25.0
-3.7
-1.7
-12.
8.
0.
-6 .
13.
5.
4,
4.
11.
-3.6
8.6
13.6
-5.9
10.4
12.4
12.9
-6.0
-22.8
7 .6
6.7
3.8
1.3
-10.0
5.4
-8.2
10.3
9.1
-2.
7.
-5.
14.
7
-1.
-5.
13.7
5.3
-3.6
12.3
3.2
7.2
8,2
5.9
-2.3
8.6
7.2
-1.9
-1.0
10.
11.5
-1.6
-14.5
13.5
10.0
6.2
3.8
-3.9
3.9
-3.9
3.8
16.5
58.9
55.5
62.1
67.3
66.3
62.8
70.0
72.6
70.8
78.3
60.6
86.5
93.2
98.0
96.5
103.4
110.9
109.8
105.6
116.7
130.4
130.3
111.3
122.4
133.4
142.0
147 .6
140.8
142.9
AVERAGE FOR
14.2
41.9
-25.7
30.2
-7!o
-2.7
-4.7
21.7
12.5
8.1
6.1
- 7 .7
-3.0
-4.1
29.5
9.7
9.8
-2.2
17.2
-13.6
14.0
7.5
1.9
-6.3
27.2
-2.1
2.3
4.2
10.7
6.0
13.1
4.7
-8.1
13.3
8.6
-1.2
-2,2
4.0
14.4
-6.4
-20.6
17.9
2.5
4.5
0.1
-5.2
30.9
-9.9
6.2
7.0
-1.6
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
5.2
-0.7
-3.5
24.8
-4.1
-1.8
-12.5
8.4
-0.5
-6.0
13.2
5.6
4.7
4.4
11.7
-3.6
8.5
13.2
-6.0
9.5
12.4
12.8
-6.6
-22.8
7.5
6.5
3.7
1.1
-10.6
5.2
-8.6
10.3
8.8
-3.8
NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. Percent changes are
centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month.
Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes.
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
54.1
57.5
57.3
58.4
67,5
66.5
65.1
CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
5.0
5.2
6.3
5.9
20.0
-4,7
-6.5
-6.8
11.2
1.1
3.4
7.3
8.2
8.1
7.5
11.9
2.1
9.2
4.8
-10.2
21.3
15.2
12.2
-9.1
-12.3
19.6
III Q
INDICATORS
CHANGE IR COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
-9.8
2.2
2.0
11.3
22 .7
-5.2
-1.8
-11.0
16.2
-12.4
8.8
18.1
12,4
14.7
3.9
11.4
-4.8
13.4
-1.1
-9.6
19.2
16.2
16.5
-6.3
-1.1
19.7
19.4
16.4
-1.6
-8.2
-13.4
5.5
19.8
15.6
10.6
910C.
57.9
55.8
60.1
56.1
66.0
67.1
65.3
62.0
73.7
70.8
72.7
80.0
83.2
88.4
95.2
101 .9
96.9
105.7
111,7
105.5
Aug.
July
COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING
(1967-100)
4.4
7 .0
-1.4
22,7
-0.6
-5.9
- 7 .9
12.0
1 .1
-1.7
6.9
8.2
4.2
7.5
12.5
2,9
7 .6
7 .1
-11.1
17.1
13.4
9 .6
-6.8
-18.9
14.1
7.1
-2.5
-0.5
-0.8
-0.8
-5.2
20.5
5 .3
5.2
-1.9
2.5
4.4
6.4
17.6
-I .0
-4.8
-2.5
16 . 3
-7.3
11.7
5.9
10 , 4
8 7
4
10.1
1.0
5.2
2.4
- 1 1 ,2
18.6
14.5
8.0
-6.6
-1.5
17.0
11.3
8.8
0.7
-9.5
-1.5
-1.3
25.3
9.6
5.8
6.9
4.9
0.2
19.7
2.6
-0.5
16.1
-6.8
6.6
7.8
2.0
-7.0
8.8
3.1
-3.3
- 1 .4
6.8
5.2
-2.4
-9.2
28.4
8.8
4!6
-3.4
-11.3
4.0
1.5
18.8
-2.2
1.4
-4.9
13.9
-13.8
12.3
3.9
1.0
-5.3
25.5
-3.9
1.2
8.1
6.9
5.2
9.4
4.0
-8.3
13.5
8.6
-2.1
-1.8
4.0
14.0
-5.8
-22.0
17.5
2.3
6.2
2.1
-7,6
26.3
-10.7
4.3
10.1
-3.5
5.2
5.5
-6.0
25.7
-1.6
-2 .8
-11.5
12.9
-1 .9
-3.7
9.9
7.2
5.9
6.4
11.2
-2.6
7 .1
12,5
-6.7
9.3
12.0
12.3
-4.9
- 2 2 .9
11 .2
6.2
i!s
-7.7
6.7
-9.4
13.6
7.8
1.1
-4.1
7.3
-6.1
14.2
6 .7
- 1 .9
-5.3
13.9
3.2
-2.6
11.4
3.3
s!l
5.6
-1.9
7 .6
7.3
-2.4
-1.3
10.4
11.5
-1.2
-15.1
13.9
8.6
4,2
-4.5
3.0
-4,4
4.5
15.5
1.3
(SEPTEMBER 1985)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
1951...
1952...
1953.. .
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
57.6
57.9
63.8
60.0
61.9
66.3
69.6
64.3
67.0
71.9
67,0
72.0
57.4
58.8
64.3
60.0
62.3
68.2
70.0
63.0
67.7
71.6
66.8
72.7
1963 . . .
1964.. .
196 5 . . .
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969.. .
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976.,.
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
74.5
78.6
85.4
93.6
99.4
102.8
109.1
110.8
108.6
114.0
125.5
128.7
116.2
121.4
128.3
137.1
149.3
150.7
146.8
138.4
134.3
149.5
79.4
86.0
94.3
98.8
103.5
109.9
110.8
108.5
114.4
127.0
128.0
114.6
122,9
129.2
13 8 . 3
149.4
149.6
147.2
139.9
133.5
150.6
Feb.
Mar.
June
July
Oct.
Nov.
L
I
57.3
61.6
63.4
59.0
66.7
68.9
68.4
64.2
67.9
69.3
70.2
74.2
57.6
62.5
63.1
59.4
67.4
69.6
67.7
64.6
67.6
69.1
71.0
74-4
57.8
62,8
61.9
60.4
67.8
69.4
66.6
66.2
68.3
68.1
72.0
74.7
82. 5
89. >
97. )
100. }
106. J
112. >
109. 1
109. S
119. J
127 . i
127. »
117. }
125. )
134. S
145.< }
150. >
141. I
147..
1 3 5 . -I
140.1 J
156. )
83.1
90.2
97.7
100.4
107.1
112.6
109.0
110.1
119.9
128.7
126.5
118.1
125.6
135.8
146.1
150.4
142.7
146.5
134.5
143.3
156.5
82.1
91 . 2
98.3
100.3
107.7
112.9
106.7
110.2
121.8
129,7
125,2
118.5
125.3
136.6
147.4
150.3
144.2
144.5
132.9
145.0
156.5
Aug.
Apr.
May
57.6
58.7
64.9
59.4
63.5
68.2
69.9
62.1
68.8
71.0
67.3
73.2
57.9
58.5
64.9
59.1
64.3
68.8
69.3
61.0
69.8
71.3
67.5
73.7
57.8
58.8
65.0
58.9
65.2
68.4
68.9
61.2
70 .6
70.9
68.3
73.7
57.9
58.4
64.7
58.9
65.6
68.4
69.1
62.1
70.8
70.4
69.3
73.6
57.3
57.3
64.9
58.7
66.2
65.9
69.1
63.1
70.2
70.0
69.4
74.0
57.
59.
64.
58.
66.
68.
69,
63.
68.
69.
70.
74.
79.5
86.8
95.4
98.9
104.0
110.5
110.8
108.8
115.6
127.4
127.8
113.0
123.6
130.9
140.0
151.2
148.1
147.2
139.2
134.6
151.1
80.4
87.3
95.5
99.1
104.4
110.8
110.5
109.1
116.6
127.2
127.6
113.3
124.3
131.6
143.0
149.1
145.1
147.1
138.0
135.6
152.6
81.0
87.9
96.0
99.0
105.2
110.8
110.1
109.6
117.2
127.5
128.2
114.1
124,6
132,5
143.1
150.6
142.4
146.9
138.8
137.9
153.9
81.2
68.5
97.1
99.2
106.0
111.4
109.7
109.8
116.9
127.8
128.3
114.9
124.8
133.6
144.2
150.6
141.1
147.5
137.3
139.8
155.4
81.9
89.4
97.3
99.5
106.6
112.1
109.8
109.6
117.8
128.7
128.2
115.6
125.3
134.3
145.0
151.0
140.8
147,6
136.4
140.7
155.7
Sept
Dec.
11.0
4.2
7.8
-14.7
14.6
1.8
-5.0
-18.4
22.0
18.3
196 2 ! . .
1963.. .
196 4 . . .
1965...
1966..,
1967...
-6^
1.6
4.7
4.3
8.0
10.2
196 8 . . .
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972.!.
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980.. .
1981.. .
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985.. .
-5.7
2.2
-12.1
11.7
21.0
10.1
-9.7
-20.2
20.8
4.8
-8.4
-3.2
5.7
5.9
-19.3
16.5
17.5
57.7
63,4
60.8
61.2
68.2
69.9
65.4
65.9
70.9
67.2
72.4
74,4
57.5
58.5
64.3
59.8
62.6
68.2
69.8
63.1
67.8
71.5
67.0
72.6
57.9
58.6
64.9
59.0
6 5.0
68.5
69.1
61.4
70.4
70.9
68.4
73.7
}
L
f
I
iI
L
)
57.' ^
59.(
64.]
58.(
66.4
67.3
68.<
63. i
68.;
69.1
69.$
74.]
57.7
62,9
61.9
60.3
67.8
69.6
66.6
65.6
68.9
68.1
71.8
74.5
57.6
59.9
63.
59.
65.
68.
68.
63.4
69.0
70,0
69.3
73.7
83.7
92.1
98.3
102.0
108.5
111.9
105.8
111.0
123.2
130.7
122.2
118.9
126.8
137.2
148.4
149.9
145.3
143.0
132.7
145.9
157.7
85!l
93.0
98.6
103.3
108.9
112.0
107 .6
112.2
124.5
129.8
118.4
119.5
127 . 8
138.1
149.7
150.0
146.1
140.9
132.6
147.5
158.9
7 5.0
79.2
86.1
94.4
99.0
103.4
109.8
110.8
108.6
114.7
126.6
128.2
114.6
122.6
129.5
138.5
150.0
149.5
147.1
139.2
134.1
150.4
7 6.3
80.9
87.9
96.2
99.1
105.2
111.0
110.1
109.5
116.9
127.5
128.0
114.1
124.6
132.6
143.4
150.1
142.9
147.2
138.0
137.8
154.0
77.1
82..
89.1
97..
100.]
106.8
112.' •
109.<
109.1
119.(>
128. <
127.2
117.C
125.:
134.S
145.1
150.1
141.6
147.1
135.4
141 .«
156.1
7 8.0
83.6
92.1
98.4
101.9
108.4
112.3
106.7
111.1
123.2
130.1
121.9
119.0
126.6
137.3
148.5
150.1
145.2
142,8
132.7
146.1
157.7
76.6
81.5
89.0
96.6
100.0
106.0
111.4
109.2
109.7
118.4
126.2
126.4
116.2
124.8
133.6
144.0
150.2
144.8
146.0
136.3
139.9
154.5
-2.1
12.1
-19.4
17.1
7.3
9,0
-19.6
-5.3
56.6
3.7
7.5
9.8
-8.7
16.1
0.0
0.1
-18.7
18.9
2.1
-1.9
-1.2
-3.3
14.0
1.4
-4.3
1.3
12.4
-3.(
29.S
-1 A
O.C
7.C
9.2
-3.£
14,2
-14.«
2.9
12.3
-15.2
15.9
9 .3
6 .2
-16.3
12.2
21.5
0.8
12.6
2.3
5.<S
3.2
6 .4
8.3
10.8
1.5
8.9
8.1
7.5
1.3
7.9
3.3
-3.9
3 .7
4.8
1.3
1.6
6.9
3.9
8.5
13.1
-0.9
- 1 7 .5
0.9
-5.0
16.5
11.9
0.2
9.7
8.C
X.I
5.C
4.'.
4.<
-2.!
1 .!
10.7
3.2
- 5 .t
11.7
2.6
6.S
5.4
-0.5
4.S
-2.6
-7.S
10.£
2.£
13.3
1.2
5.0
11.5
13.0
3.8
12.5
6 .9
-1.9
-3.3
8 .0
16.3
3.8
-22.9
4.8
7.5
7.0
10.2
-1.0
9.9
-14.4
-5.4
12.3
6.4
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
-6.1
39.9
-12.3
6.3
9.4
13.0
-11.5
11.9
-3.5
-* i
1.7
0.0
6.5
19.0
-5.5
8.4
13.3
12.9
-11.6
7.7
-5.2
4.2
5.9
-20.6
22.2
7.4
-3.4
-17.8
34.1
13.2
14.6
18.3
I
1. f
3. J
10.
9.1
8,3
1.2
1 .2
-13.5
14.1
7.6
-1.2
26.1
12.5
0.0
22.3
22.0
12.4
3.7
16.4
7 .0
7.8
1 .1
2 ..
4 . J4
-5. 1
1.1
-3.2
-3.0
2.9
0.9
8.7
9.6
8.8
-0.9
7.6
16. +
-8.
-8. I
19. L
6.2
8.8
-7,3
8.5
3.2
-22.6
1.1
20.8
9.7
-11.7
4.1
-10.1
-9.7
9.1
14.7
9.7
-25.3
4.1
1.1
22.4
13.8
13.4
-8.0
-31.6
6.2
9.6
0.0
-10.4
5.0
-12.2
17.8
12.3
6 ,9
3.2
-2.5
0.8
-7.6
8.0
2.3
7.
-3. I
3. >
-2 . +
-10.
0. )
2..\
1.7
-1.6
13.5
-6.3
-6.0
23.5
3.9
11.2
-0.8
13.4
-15.2
-13.4
15.2
0.0
8.5
-3.1
9.5
-11.8
-1.8
7.7
9.6
11.0
0.8
6.8
-16.3
-0.9
14.0
9.5
-4.1
20.3
9.8
0.0
8.0
-1.7
7.1
-21.7
13.3
4.3
-2.0
11.8
-11.4
25.7
0.0
-1.7
-15.9
21.3
6.4
-4.0
0.0
-5.9
16.2
11.1
-9.8
-19.3
18.9
-2.1
6.3
1.9
-4.0
18.2
-6.8
-6.7
4.0
14.7
2,1
-7.9
-5.4
0.0
7.6
0.0
3.5
19.1
3.5
-11.8
-20.4
3.8
-4.0
11.5
-36.0
0.0
21.1
-9.7
-3.5
12.3
10.1
12.9
8.8
9.4
-7.0
9.4
8.6
4.9
1.5
11.8
14.9
1.2
3.6
8.5
10.0
14.5
7.1
1.3
2.5
15'.2
0.0
4.8
9.3
8.6
6.5
- 1 .2
19.1
-1.6
4.8
3.0
8.5
14.7
2.5
K7
6.7
6. >
70.
-13. J
0.0
0. )
50. }
0.0
9. )
-30.5
-5.0
12. 3
3.
10.8
12.9
2.5
3.7
8.5
9.2
0.0
-1.1
4.3
15.3
-6.3
-15.3
15.9
6.0
6.8
0.0
3.4
13!3
3.8
-1.9
-15.5
7.1
4.7
3.3
-3.2
3.4
10.9
-1.9
-1.9
3.2
7.0
9 .6
0 .0
-4.3
5 .6
9 .5
6.7
-4.3
2.9
5.8
8.8
11.0
0.8
-8.4
3.3
13.8
-6.9
9.2
15.8
15.5
-11.4
0.0
-5.8
10.3
4.1
29.0
-15.5
-21.8
-0.8
-9.9
9,3
12.6
0.8
12.8
-20.2
-1.6
7 .2
22.4
10.7
\'[
,
920C.
Annual
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
J
CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 4~~RODGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATOR 5 OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
IV Q
II Q
(1967-100)
920C.
niq
IQ
2,9
6.1
-4.0
4.7
12.9
9.7
-6.0
-17.0
14.6
10.2
6.1
4.4
-4.7
3.1
-3.8
6.6
10.3
0.1
1.2
12.0
-3.5
1.2
11.6
4.2
-6.1
2.3
9.6
-4.8
8.0
2.9
5.3
9.1
9.3
6.1
5.1
5 .5
3.0
-3.4
4.
11.
4.
-8.;
};*
8.7
0.5
-1.9
-3.3
-5.5
11.6
7.8
CHANGE IN COMPOSITE ] NDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
AVERAGE FOII PERIOD
1951...
1952...
1953.. .
1954...
1955...
1956 . . .
1957 . . .
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961.. .
1962...
1963.. .
1964...
1965...
1966.. .
1967.. .
1968.. .
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983..,
1984...
1985...
12.0
7 .1
9.9
-11.7
13.2
2,4
3.5
9!4
20.8
-7.4
3.9
2.2
3.5
7.1
9.8
-8.9
15.9
0.0
0.0
-18.7
18.8
0.6
0.6
4.5
5.5
2.1
4.2
7.1
-5.9
16.4
3.0
-1,7
-19.0
17.8
-3.3
3.0
9.8
8.3
2.8
0 .0
4.4
-7.1
20.0
1.2
-6.1
- 1 0 .9
18.3
-3.9
9.3
5.6
6.5
2.1
-2.0
-1.2
-3.3
13.9
1 .2
-4.5
0 .0
12.1
-3.3
12.4
2.2
6.5
-4.J
-8.C
0 .(
-2 ,
12.
-15.
14.*
2.
-7 .
11."
10.
i
3
J
S
2.1
41.5
-10.6
4.9
7.5
20.8
-13.0
12.1
10 .0
12.2
-15.4
15.8
9.3
8.6
-18.3
17.9
5.4
6.1
8.9
-8.8
15.2
-3.3
1.1
-4.4
15.4
24.2
-7 .£
1 A
6.<
13 .9
-15.6
15.3
8.2
1.8
10.2
-3.4
0.9
11.4
1
I
+
L
3
)
-7.9
9.9
-14.0
-5.0
9.5
2.2
-13.7
17.4
1.2
-8.9
11.3
2.7
-16.4
11.0
18.9
-11.6
13.1
1.1
4.4
2 .6
7.6
8.0
9. 7
7. 9
1.0
8.3
5.9
11 .6
2.9
7.0
10 . 0
13.0
3.7
12.1
-18.6
15.7
28.0
- 1 1 ,6
5.8
0.5
3,1
17 .1
10.9
4,6
10.3
-19.2
15.3
6.0
-1.3
6.1
5.3
8.3
9.6
9.7
0.7
13.e
-14.2
-5.S
8 .(
2.1
4.C
6.1
8.
-2. 5
1 .1
10. 7
2 .B
-5. 5
-10.8
2 .2
14.3
3.1
-9.0
-12.2
6 .4
13.7
9.4
-15.1
-5.0
7 .9
16.3
3.5
-23.3
7.3
14.5
12 .7
-3.0
-25.8
5.9
-3.1
5.7
11.6
9.3
-5.8
1 .2
10.9
-4.8
11.1
3 .1
5.8
8.3
9.1
7.5
1.2
7.8
3.8
-3.0
3 .2
6 .3
2.6
1.4
-5. J
14.7
16.0
-10.7
10.1
1.4
4.0
11.0
11.8
3.7
9.8
6.2
-3.8
- 3 ,3
9 .6
14.2
3.3
-21.4
2.6
7.0
-3.8
7.1
3.3
4.9
8.4
9.6
6.4
4.1
6.0
2.6
-3.7
4.8
10.8
4.4
-
0 .0
7.0
6.8
-1.8
10 . 0
-8.1
-9.9
12.8
2.1
4.2
8.0
7.0
-1.8
12.1
-11.2
-7.2
15.3
4 .4
7.2
6.9
10.2
-1.1
9.9
-14.4
-5.5
12.2
6.3
9.9
1.5
5.3
1.1
7.4
-15.8
4.3
13.0
4.4
12.8
9.5
9.1
2.1
-6.6
3.0
-4.8
4.2
10.7
2.3
4.3
9.2
11.0
2.3
-15.6
0.5
-4.3
15.4
9.8
0.3
l.f J
6. i
6. i
-0, J
3, i
-3..
-9.3
10.< >
3.
?!l
5.5
7.5
-0.6
9.8
-13.8
-2.8
13.5
5.0
.7
1.6
5.8
- 1.2
) .4
- j.3
10,9
7.3
-1.4
7 .7
-5.4
-1 .4
6.3
-1.2
1.2
16,6
-13.4
-6.6
11.0
2 .7
2.1
6.0
5.3
-3.9
2.7
6.0
-4.2
6.4
6.4
-1.1
-2.5
7.9
3.3
-3.9
8.7
4.8
-2.5
-2.9
12.8
12.9
-8.0
12.7
9.6
-6.0
9.4
5.5
-3.4
1.6
0.6
1.3
1.6
4.8
1.9
0.9
-2.8
14.2
7.8
3.2
2.7
-0.8
5.3
-8.4
2.4
13.5
2.0
14.4
10.1
5.6
4.1
-5.0
3.0
-4.7
6.2
10.1
0.0
9.9
10.7
18.4
-0.5
-14.1
0.8
-1.2
3.9
8.6
4.9
6.7
5.6
10.6
14.6
3 .3
-17 .9
-0 .8
-3.1
13.8
9 .1
2.8
3.9
8.5
12.6
- 1 .6
-17.6
0.8
-5.3
16.4
11.9
0.0
3.3
8.5
5.7
5.2
- 1 1 .3
1 .4
-4,6
15.9
8.4
-2.0
2.9
6.5
8.1
0 .0
- 3 .3
1 .1
- 1 0 .0
8.7
5.6
1 .0
-4.
23.
-7,
0.
6.
3.
-4.
14.
-15.
-6.
5.
3.
2.
6.
5.
-0.
4.
-2.
-7.
10.
2.
&
8
4
5
5
7
9
k
9
NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. Percent changes are
centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month.
Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes.
4.">
^
o!i
10.f J
!s
(SEPTEMBER 1985)
101
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
930.
1951...
1952.. .
1953...
1954...
42.8
50.2
53.3
57.9
43.7
50.3
53.8
57 .3
1955 • • .
1956.. .
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960.. .
1961.. .
196 2 . . .
1963...
1964...
196 5 . . .
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971.. .
1972...
1973.. .
1974...
1975...
1976,. .
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980.. .
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
52.6
60.0
67.0
71.8
64.1
74.9
76.7
73.8
77.9
81 .9
87.0
92.4
99.3
99.8
104.9
114.8
109.1
104.4
106.2
114.6
121 .0
104.3
103.8
111.4
119.2
126.2
121.7
126.1
115.7
109.8
52,7
60.2
66.6
69.3
64.0
76.2
76,6
73.5
78.1
82.9
87.7
93 . 3
99!6
100.4
105.6
114.8
108.8
104.2
107.3
114.4
119.0
103.8
104.3
111.6
119.7
127.1
120.7
125.3
115. 8
111.3
930C
44.5
50.8
54.1
56.3
53 • 0
61.2
67.0
69.2
64.3
77.0
75.8
73.9
78.3
83.4
88.2
93 .6
100.3
100.3
105.9
115.1
108.3
104.4
107.6
113.6
118.6
103.3
104.2
112.3
118.8
130.2
119.0
125.1
114.4
112 .8
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
COMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS
(1967-100)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
47,1
51.9
57.3
53.5
47.3
51.9
57.9
53.2
47 . 8
51.7
58.1
53.0
48.3
52.3
58.3
53.0
49.4
53.0
58.5
52.9
43.7
50.4
53.7
57.2
45.7
51.4
56.2
54.8
47.1
52.0
57.4
53.6
53.2
63.9
68.1
64.6
66.1
78.6
74.5
74.8
7 8.5
83.5
89.8
54 .2
66.1
68.4
62.6
69.4
79.2
73.3
75.9
79.5
83.8
89.7
56 .5
64.9
71.0
61.9
71.4
78.4
73.1
76.2
80.0
85.0
90.7
56 ,9
65.9
72.3
63.5
75.1
75.8
73.4
76.6
80.3
85.9
90.5
66.0
71.8
64.0
76.3
75.8
73.1
77.1
80.7
86.6
91 . 2
66.6
72.6
63.8
76,4
76.4
72.6
77.5
82.1
85.7
91 . 9
100.2
101.5
109.0
113.6
107.3
105.1
109.6
116.7
112.8
103.4
105.2
112.8
121.0
129.6
122.2
125.1
111.0
116.4
100.4
101.8
109.2
114.0
105.2
105.9
110.7
117.1
108.6
102.9
106.3
113.7
122.3
125.5
122.4
124.8
109.8
117.5
100.5
101.5
109.3
113.5
106 . 0
105.4
112.0
117.1
108.0
103.2
106.2
114.3
122.3
121.8
122.5
124.3
109.7
118.8
99.8
102.2
109.9
114.1
107.0
105.0
112.0
117.2
106.9
103.2
107 .2
114.8
123.0
120.5
123.3
122.3
110.3
119.8
100.3
102,5
110.4
113.6
106.9
104.9
113.2
118.6
105.9
103.9
107.7
115.4
124.7
119.4
124. 7
121.4
109.7
121.0
100.1
102.6
111.1
113,5
106,4
105.1
113.3
118.7
106.0
104.2
108.3
115.3
125.8
119.0
125.0
120.2
109.6
122.0
99.6
103.2
111.3
112,8
106.0
105.1
113 .6
119.7
104.7
103.8
109.0
117 .1
126.3
120.1
124.5
118.2
110.0
121.7
66.4
73.2
64.7
75.2
77.2
73.0
78.0
82.4
86.1
92.3
99.3
99^
104.3
111.8
111.0
105.9
104.8
114.5
121.1
104.6
103.7
109.4
118.0
126.1
123.0
124.4
116.7
110.9
122.1
60.5
66.9
70.1
64.1
76,0
76.4
73.7
78.1
82.7
87.6
93 .1
99.7
100.2
105.5
114.9
108.7
104.3
107.0
114.2
119.5
103.8
104.1
111 . 8
119.2
127.8
120.5
125.5
115.3
111.3
63.6
68.0
65.2
66.2
78.4
74.4
75.0
78.6
83.9
89.5
9 5.5
100.3
101.5
108.1
113.8
106.6
105.2
109.9
116.5
112.2
103.0
105 . 4
112.7
121.7
129,1
121.2
125.3
111.4
116 . 2
55.9'
65.6
70.6
62.7
72.0
77.8
73,3
76.2
79.9
84.9
90.3
97.3
100.2
102.1
109.9
113.7
106.6
105.1
112.4
117.6
106.9
103.4
107.0
114.8
123.3
120.6
123.5
122.7
109.9
119.9
13.3
31.0
26.0
19.3
7.2
19.2
22.0
-13.4
23!o
6.9
-29.1
29.1
8.1
-7.8
26.8
12.4
28.7
3.6
48.4
4.2
-2.2
19.6
3.3
5.5
8.2
1,8
-1.5
5.4
6.8
8.4
3.0
4.7
-0.2
2.9
-2!o
7.5
11.2
1.4
8.2
7.8
-2.7
7.3
-3.5
-10.5
5.9
-1.2
6.8
-3,7
-8.6
-3.7
-0.4
13.2
-29.5
-1.4
8.4
5.5
13.5
-10.9
13.2
-0.8
-14.9
5.4
-9.6
4.0
5.5
6.1
8.3
-17.6
8.9
-4.6
-0.7
6.5
9.7
4.7
13.7
6!l
-12.8
-0.7
5.6
8.2
7.4
-0.1
-10.3
-0,2
-14.5
4.6
12.5
3.8
-5.7
-4.5
10.5
5 2.6
62.5
67.8
67.8
64.3
77.3
75.0
74.5
7 8.3
83.8
88.9
100.2
101.1
107.0
113.7
107.2
104.7
109.4
115.6
115.2
102.8
104.7
111.6
121.7
132,3
119.0
125.9
113 . 5
114.6
25.4
21.3
7,0
-11.6
-11.8
-19.0
-19.4
-8.3
-12.4
-4.3
-12.5
1956!!!
1957...
1958...
1959...
12.8
11.4
-20.7
-10.6
4.1
-6.9
-34.6
-1.9
21,9
7.5
-1,7
5.8
28.7
15.3
-21.8
0.0
30.5
5.4
-44.0
39.3
9.8
0.0
-21.6
48.1
36 .7
5.4
-12.5
21.1
-19.7
56.5
-12,6
40.6
-6.5
8 .8
20.1
24.3
35.8
83.4
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1 965 . . .
1966...
1967 . . .
196 8 . . .
1969...
1970...
1971,..
1972...
197 3 . . .
1974...
1975...
1976.. .
1977., .
1978...
1979...
1980,. .
1 981
1982...
1983...
-7.5
14.0
-1.5
-7.0
13.3
-11.8
6.7
3.1
7.5
7 .1
-7,7
4.9
3.1
-4.2
12,8
ll'.*
0.0
-6.3
4.9
7.9
-6,9
-3,2
4.8
7.8
18.6
5.0
6,5
4.6
13.5
8.8
-12.0
10,2
0.0
5.9
10.0
13.'6
-1.2
-12.2
13.6
7.9
12.1
1.3
0.0
2.4
7.1
37.4
-18.7
-15.7
17.3
1.1
-1.0
-3.4
1,2
24.3
12.9
1.0
-12.0
17 I?
-9.8
-1.6
-4.8
3.1
15.7
10 .1
12.3
3.7
7.5
8.3
0.0
-3.3
-2.3
13.2
-2.1
-18.1
-5.6
5.9
2.2
5.2
8.9
2.4
1.2
6.4
-8.0
3.5
3.2
-5.4
2.3
-13.7
-11.5
3.5
-1.1
1.1
4.7
4.3
-21.1
9.5
-5.1
9.5
-5.5
6.5
11.9
-4.5
-8.1
-4,0
-5.6
-1,1
7.8
-8.7
33.5
23.3
-29.5
-5.7
5.9
-7.2
33.6
21.2
12,0
-22.3
7,2
5.9
13.7
-6.7
-21.9
4'.2
-36,6
-5.7
13.3
10.0
13.7
-32.0
0.0
-6.4
3.6
-1.1
6.5
0.0
-30.2
-K9
-13.6
1985.. .
-11.3
22.7
7.9
-9.0
20,9
1.0
-7.4
-23.5
20.6
24.2
-2.8
-12.2
11.9
-1.9
-4.7
-1.1
14.1
1.9
~7!4
1 .0
17.7
7.0
930C.
1951.. .
1952...
1953...
1954,,.
1955...
1956...
1957,.,
1958..•
1959...
1960...
1961 . . .
196 2 . . .
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
196 8 . . .
1969!!!
1970.. .
1971...
1972...
1973.. .
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
197 9 . . .
1980...
1981.. .
1982.. ,
1983...
1984...
1985...
11.8
17.6
12.0
-6.7
-2.2
5.5
0.0
io!o
17.4
-4.6
Annual
47.0
52.3
56.9
54 .1
45.6
51.3
56.5
54.9
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
24.3
12.6
IV Q
46.5
52.2
56.8
54.3
53 .9
64.4
68.1
63.3
68.3
79.4
73.7
75.6
79.0
84.3
89.9
45.1
50.6
55.2
55.3
CHANC E IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF & LAGGING INDICATORS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
(ANNUAL RAT E, PERCENT)
28.4
2.4
III Q
14.1
17.9
26.4
23.2
13,7
2.3
2.6
-8,8
5.2
13,4
48.5
52.3
58.3
53.0
46.3
51.5
56.4
54.6
59.0
66.3
72.5
64.2
76.0
76.5
72.9
77.5
81.7
86.1
91.8
9 8,7
99.8
103.4
111.4
112.4
106.1
105.0
113.8
119.8
105.1
103.9
108.9
116.8
126.1
120.7
124.6
118.4
110.2
121.9
55.2
64.0
69.5
65.5
69.6
77.2
74.2
75.6
79.6
84.4
89.8
96.2
100.0
101.8
108.7
113.7
107.0
104.9
110.8
117.0
110.9
103.5
106.4
114.0
122,6
124.6
122.4
123.0
111.7
117.3
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
-4.4
31.1
1.8
-8.0
9.9
21.0
0 .0
-4.8
8.1
6.1
0.0
-2.2
8.6
-14.1
27.8
11.5
14.2
-3.7
1.6
9.9
-7.9
6.4
22.9
0 .0
-3.5
10.4
18.3
-17.3
13.3
6.8
8.0
4.5
I2I9
4.0
-19.0
-2.2
10.5
-7.0
5,3
1.6
0.0
6.2
3.6
2.5
-2.4
17.2
-5.8
3.7
0.0
-5.1
-1.1
-1.1
-1.1
-5.5
2.3
-7.2
-4.4
0.0
-17.6
-1.1
-3.4
0 •0
1.0
-11.6
0.0
11.9
5.4
7.1
-12.1
13.6
15.3
-10.7
8.5
5.7
6.5
17.9
-10.4
1 .1
1.0
1.1
3.5
6.9
-1.0
11 .1
-3.9
10.6
-13.8
-4.5
8.0
20.4
4.9
11.7
15.0
-1.1
-1.1
4.5
9.6
-1.9
33.2
-17.7
6,8
10.6
0.0
-8.5
-6.3
12.7
-11.2
-1.1
-18.2
4.5
-14.2
10.3
5.8
4.2
13.5 •
-9.1
-5.2
-3.0
-7.7
-4.9
2.0
11.4
3.1
14.5
-12.4
2.8
-7.5
-10.6
9.6
3 .7
8 .0
12.5
0 .4
13.2
7.8
CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF f > LAGGING INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
(AHNOAL RATE, PERCENT)
17.9
7.8
10.7
-9.4
13.7
12.9
11.3
-9.1
19.3
3.9
-5.3
6.9
5.8
4.9
7 .4
7.7
0,4
4.8
7.3
0.0
-4.1
-0.8
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
26.0
11.8
8.6
-14.2
9.8
12.7
3.7
23.3
3.2
15.0
-16.8
0.0
17.7
4.9
18.6
8.2
21.6
-15.7
3.8
26.9
9.3
19.2
11.5
21.5
-13.5
7.0
22.6
6.7
17.9
14.1
12.9
-8.4
12.7
25.1
3.6
13.8
4.8
5.8
-9.8
27 .2
6 .4
18.2
7.1
-2.3
8.0
-7.9
24.2
9.6
27 . 0
7.0
-4.5
8.7
-7.9
33,0
-0.6
21 . 4
10.6
3.1
7.2
-3.7
22.2
10,9
9.3
19.0
8.8
4.2
-2.2
18.8
3.1
5.1
21.6
13.0
-1.4
-3.0
13.0
6 ,2
0.0
20 . 4
10.9
11.9
-12.6
-0.5
12 .0
2.9
18.6
11.3
18.7
-12.5
7.8
24.9
6.5
9.3
-0.7
7.5
-8.5
28.1
5.1
22.2
17.1
8.3
3.3
-3.0
18.0
6,7
4.8
16.3
7.4
10.3
-9.1
13 . 4
12.2
9.1
-2.5
9.9
1.3
13.4
13.8
13.2
27.3
13.1
35.7
10.2
36.1
- 1 .0
46.2
-16.9
46.1
-16.1
31.1
-9.8
0.5
7.6
-7.1
4.8
0.0
7 .4
25.6
12.2
42.8
-11.3
8,2
0.9
3.8
2.1
9.6
7.3
2.1
9.5
3.6
7.7
6.3
7.7
7.9
5.4
6.7
6.5
6.2
7.0
10.9
7 .5
10 .9
4.2
6.1
4.6
2.2
8.2
4,0
6,5
6.9
6.2
9.3
9.7
5.0
1.5
4.9
10.1
2.4
3.3
9!&
13.2
-13.4
-6.6
4.1
2 8
6^
12.3
-9.4
-5.5
3 .7
2.4
0.4
1.2
-1.6
-0.4
-1.6
6.3
-0.8
7.6
-2,8
6.7
-1,2
e!3
-3.8
-6.8
1.2
9!4
-4.1
-5.4
3.5
13 ! l
-3.8
-11.0
5.9
8.9
-0.7
-4.4
2.7
7 .2
1.8
-1.1
-0.4
4.5
-1.4
6.6
-3.7
6.8
0.0
1.5
-1.1
5.2
-4.5
-3.7
0.4
5.2
-8.8
-3.7
-0.4
14.0
-14.6
-7.3
4.3
7.3
3.4
3.8
e!i
7.2
-9.9
-3.6
10.8
2.8
-2.3
-3.4
1.9
9.9
9.2
2,6
2.0
2.6
- 7 ,9
4.8
10.9
-3.1
-8.0
-4.9
1.9
11.0
2 .7
13.7
-12.4
2.6
-7.7
7.0
13.0
3.5
-17.8
-5.6
3.5
0.7
8.7
20.8
-8.6
-0.6
-7 .4
18.7
5.9
-19-3
-1,5
3.5
4.4
4.4
8.1
5.1
-0.6
-15.6
19.6
11.3
-29.7
-1.5
8.3
5.1
12.3
-13.7
11.9
-1.0
-15.1
17.7
7.2
-22.8
1.6
5.9
10.0
2.0
-28.2
12.3
-5.0
-12.7
15.5
7.5
-19.3
-0.8
7.8
7,3
6 .8
-25.3
3.6
-8.7
-2.5
12.2
0.0
-9,6
3.9
5.4
6,1
8.1
-18.1
7,7
-10.5
-0,4
12.5
-7.2
3.9
8.1
3.5
11.9
-8.9
8.4
-12.6
-0.4
11.2
-8.0
2.3
6.9
8.3
11.2
-1.3
4.0
-12.8
-1.1
6.5
-4.8
-0.8
6.5
9 .3
4.6
12.6
-1.0
-14.6
4.4
3.7
-6.3
-1.5
12.0
14.2
1.3
9.4
3.6
-14.2
0.7
7 .4
7 ,1
11.1
1.3
4 .1
10 .*5
-2.9
-6.9
4.0
10.3
8.8
-23.9
-0.5
5.9
6.5
6.2
-11.3
9.8
- 2 ,1
-14.5
17.6
8,7
4,6
5.2
-1.2
3.3
6!2
0.1
2.3
-1.7
7.7
4.2
-12.0
2.3
7.1
5.6
8.9
-17.4
6.6
-10.6
-1.1
12.0
6.3
6.9
-1.6
6 8
s!l
-9.3
-4.9
1.4
5.1
8.5
-6.4
0.0
8.5
10.6
5.7
6.9
2.2
-13.9
1.3
5.9
19 !2
1.3
,tg
.4
.6
>.l
.9
.6
.5
1 .3
-1.0
1.1
5.1
3.1
4,0 *
2 .7
9.0
6 .9
NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. Percent changes are
centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month.
Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes.
102
-9.4
-4.6
2 .4
7 .2
6.9
12.4
-6.3
1.5
- 7 .7
10 . 2
9.9
8.2
-1.2
-4.8
0.0
8.4
5.6
-12.9
-0.7
6.0
7.5
6.9
-2.4
3.0
-6.3
-5.5
11.4
(SEPTEMBER 1985)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
63.
IQ
IV Q
ll.Q
Annual
INDEX OP UNIT LABOR COST, BUSINESS SECTOR
(1977-100)
1951
1952.,...
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
19S1
1982
1983.....
1984
1985
41.9
43.1
44.9
46.0
45.0
46.8
49.0
50.5
50.0
51.
52.7
52.5
52.9
52.9
53.2
54.0
56.8
58.4
61.3
66.8
68.4
71.1
72.8
80.3
90.6
92.7
98.1
105.0
114.8
127.3
138.5
150.0
156.8
157.7
42.9
43.4
44.9
46.3
45.1
47.6
49.4
50.2
50.0
52.0
52.3
53.0
52.4
53.0
53.4
55.2
56.7
59.0
62.8
67.1
69.5
71.2
74.5
83.0
89.8
94.2
99.3
106.5
117.8
131.8
140.9
153.4
155.4
156.5
42.5
43.8
45.5
45.6
45.1
48.0
49.7
50.3
51.1
52.1
52.3
52.6
52.5
53.1
53.3
55.7
57.1
59.6
64.1
67.5
69.8
86.0
89.6
95.9
100.1
108.9
121.2
134.4
142.9
155.3
155.1
158.0
42.7
44.6
45.4
45.6
45.7
48.3
50.1
49.7
51.5
52.6
52.1
52.7
52.8
53.3
53.3
56,3
57 .3
60,7
65.4
68.8
70.1
72,0
77.5
88.3
91.9
97.7
102 .4
111.3
124.0
137.1
147.1
155.9
156,8
158.4
42.5
43.8
45.1
45.9
45.2
47 .7
49.5
50.2
50.7
52.1
52,3
52.7
52.7
53.1
53.3
55.3
57.0
59.4
63.4
67.5
69.5
71.5
75.3
84.4
90.5
95.1
100.0
108.0
119.5
132.6
142.4
153.6
156 .0
157.6
618.
9.0
8.9
11.3
10.6
9.7
7.1
6.9
12.9
10.5
9.0
13.2
2.8
8.8
7.7
1.9
-1.6
5.1
8.5
12.9
16.3
11.5
8.1
7.8
9.2
8.9
8.9
8.9
6.8
10,5
10.2
11.6
2.6
4.4
3.5
8.5
11.6
16.0
15.0
8.7
7.2
11.9
11.3
10.0
10.2
7.2
9.0
11.4,
10.5
6.2
5.0
2.7
9.0
13.3
10.6
12.7
7.3
6.1
14.6
14.0
6.8
9.5
6.1
8.5
8.5
11.0
3.3
4.9
3.7
MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, ADJUSTED, EXCLUDING MILITARY*
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
4,6 85
5,095
5,077
5,063
6,242
5,768
7,242
7,752
7,997
7,468
10,258
10,920
11,833
15,474
22,614
27,480
27,575
29,668
30,947
42,036
54,752
60,793
55,482
49,227
53,753
4,916
4,806
5,336
5,599
6,199
6,876
7,169
7,693
8,325
9,53 6
10,744
10,878
11,618
17,112
24,500
25,866
28,256
30,852
35,392
43,834
55,843
60,064
55,118
48,862
54,677
5,031
5,038
5,331
5,671
6,423
6,6 43
7,290
7,531
8,744
9,400
10,665
11,548
12,351
18,271
24,629
26,109
29,056
30,752
36,811
47,236
55,785
57,812
52,07 9
50,399
55,530
II! Q
IQ
5,018
5,169
5,037
5,939
6,637
7,174
7,609
7,690
8,560
10,010
10,802
9,973
13,579
20,553
26,563
27,633
29,858
29,544
38,904
51,367
57 ,889
58,416
48,519
52,257
56,355
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
19 57
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
196 9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977.
1978
1979
1980
1981...,.
1982
1983
1984
1985
0 .401
0.422
0,43 5
0.451
0.435
0.458
0.479
0.502
0.490
0.499
0.511
0.499
0.499
0.492
0.496
0.504
0.535
0.550
0.577
0.624
0.635
0.653
0.669
0.7 43
0.842
0.853
0.913
0.975
1.053
1.174
1.274
1.372
1.421
1.415
0.409
0.428
0.438
0.449
0.43 5
0.46 4
0.481
0,500
0.488
0.508
0.506
0.504
0.493
0.496
0.495
0.514
0.535
0.555
0.588
0.628
0.642
0.658
0.6 83
0.773
0,832
0.870
0.920
0.982
1.079
1.215
1.294
1.395
1.408
1.414
349.
NEGOTIATED WAGE AND B
CHANGES OVER LIFE OF CONTRACT
348.
NEGOTIATED WAGE AND BENEFIT DECISIONS, AVERAGE
FIRST-YEAR CHARGES
©
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
196 5
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971.....
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
Year
IV Q
68.
LABOR COST IB CURRENT DOLLARS PER UNIT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN 1 9 7 2 DOLLARS, NOKFIKANCIAL CORP.
(DOLLARS)
8.8
11.7
13.6
12.4
8.4
7.0
10.6
11.8
9.0
9.4
8.3
7 .7
9.7
10.2
3.5
3.2
3.8
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
.
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
196 4
1965.....
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
620.
TOTAL
14,243
13,449
12,412
12,929
14,424
17,556
19,562
16,414
16,458
19,650
20,108
20,781
22,272
25,501
26,461
29,310
30,666
33,626
36,414
42,469
43,319
49,381
71,410
98,306
107,088
114,745
120,816
142,054
184,473
224,269
237,085
211,198
200,745
220,315
6.1
6.7
8.0
8.5
8.2
5.6
6.2
7.7
8.0
7.5
8.2
5.3
6.7
7.2
1.2
1.4
4.7
6.8
10.3
10.9
8.2
7.3
6.7
7 .7
7.3
7.2
6.0
6.0
7.8
7.4
10.8
2.1
3.6
3.2
0.409
0.433
0.440
0.444
0.440
0.471
0.486
0.498
0.498
0.505
0.503
0.500
0.491
0.498
0.498
0.519
0,540
0.559
0.598
0.631
0.644
0.661
0.697
0.804
0.82 9
0.884
0.928
1.007
1.107
1.227
1,313
1.404
1.400
1.43 4
0.412
0.43 5
0.451
0.442
0.446
0 .47 7
0.492
0.491
0.499
0.508
0.497
0.497
0.494
0.501
0.497
0.525
0.540
0.566
0.611
0.641
0.645
0.665
0.716
0.82 5
0.844
0.903
.950
.025
.136
.255
• 348
.419
.408
1.43 8
3,812
3,394
3,966
,064
,416
,711
,012
08
96
7, 44
9,
10,
13,
16, 85
21,952
24,980
28,176
36,585
42,105
46,812
64,478
65,268
62 ,540
58,848
79,322
3,858
3,438
4,080
4,226
4,598
5,428
6,195
6 ,475
8,051
9,527
9,766
11,614
13,254
17,168
26,346
22,832
30,182
38,063
43,751
51,166
62,409
67,369
60,916
63,616
80,326
AVERAGE
0.40 8
0.43 0
0.441
0.446
0.439
0.467
0.484
0.497
0.494
0.505
0.504
0.500
0.494
0.497
0.497
0.515
0.538
0.558
0.594
0.631
0.641
0.659
0.692
0.7 86
0.837
0.878
0.928
0.998
1.094
1.218
1.307
1.397
1.409
1.425
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
6.5
7.8
11.6
8.7
7.3
6.3
8.0
8,7
7.4
6.2
5.9
6.1
7.2
8.1
4.7
4.3
3.1
6.4
9.0
7.5
10.6
6.6
5.6
8.7
8.7
5.2
6.3
5.2
6.0
6.1
5.8
4.8
3.1
2.0
MERCHANDISE IMPORTS, ADJUSTED, EXCLUDING MILITARY'*
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1951..
1952,
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967 ,
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981 .
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
Annual
3,648
3,809
4,116
4,372
4,7 56
5,516
6,576
6,526
8,612
9,3 80
10,049
12,171
14,022
1 7 , 6 83
27,368
24,487
32,213
38,005
44,383
54,257
59,778
66,209
64,435
67,629
88,037
3,440
3,896
4,098
4,386
4,930
5,855
6,710
7,157
8,532
9,456
10 ,464
11 ,914
15,020
19,363
28 ,145
25,886
33,657
39,254
45,762
59,774
63,085
66,217
59 ,751
72,664
80,912
6.4
8.4
9.5
9.0
7.4
6.0
7.6
8.1
7.0
6.5
6.3
6.3
6.8
8.0
3.2
3.1
3.2
TOTAL
11,176
10,838
10,975
10,353
11,527
12,803
13 ,291
12,952
15,310
14,758
14,537
16,260
17,0 48
18,700
21,510
25,493
26,866
32,991
35,807
39,866
46,299
55,797
70,499
103,811
98,185
124,228
151,907
176,001
212,009
249,750
265,063
247,642
262 ,757
328,597
•
NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain no revisions but are r e p r i n t e d f o r the convenience of the user.
1
This series contains revisions beginning with 1983. 2 This series contains revisions beginning w i t h 1978.
{SEPTEMBER 1985)
103
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
IV Q
IQ
622. BALANCE ON MERCHANDISE TRADE
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
19 80
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
652.
873
1,701
1,111
999
1,826
1,057
1,230
1,044
201
24
671
320
-1,668
-811
662
2,500
-601
-6.917
-11,158
-4.776
-9,726
-4,475
-7,058
-9,621
-25,569
1,058
1,368
1.256
1,373
1.601
1,448
974
1,218
274
9
978
-736
-1,636
-56
-1,846
3.034
-1,926
-7,211
-8,359
-7,332
-6.566
-7,305
-5,798
-14,754
-25,649
1,3 83
1,229
lh215
1,299
1,667
1,12 7
714
1.005
132
20
616
-623
-1,671
588
-2,739
1,622
-3,157
-7.253
-7,572
-7,021
-3,993
-8,397
-12,356
-17,230
-32.507
282
245
271
371
43 7
487
566
679
7 84
1,004
1,422
1 ,227
1,479
2,102
2,706
3,23 7
3,405
3,099
4,372
7,260
10,336
12,398
13,441
12,283
15,268
27 1
245
277
380
441
526
584
681
838
1,148
1,405
1,283
1,623
2,392
3,005
3,143
3.332
3,398
5,326
7,845
10,262
13,383
14,537
12,856
17,277
267
254
281
393
43 9
515
652
672
867
1,324
1,377
1,428
1,650
2,518
3.276
3,212
3 , 2 93
3,612
5,630
8,525
10,505
13,796
14,086
13,588
18,513
1,578
1,273
939
1,553
1,707
1,319
899
533
28
554
338
-1,221
-1,441
1,190
-1,582
1,7 47
- 3 , 7 99
-9,710
-6,858
-8,407
-5,196
-7,801
-11,232
-20,407
-24,557
245
263
283
416
466
562
679
715
890
1,392
1,311
1,497
1,821
2,643
3,098
2,973
3,281
4,107
6,352
9,328
11,017
12,752
13,210
13,893
17,442
668. EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES. EXCLUDING TRANSFERS
UNDER U.S. MILITARY GRANTS3
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
6.605
7,225
7,354
7,997
9,574
9,34 L
10,92 I
11,818
12,435
12,428
15,902
17,097
18,51 I
23,958
34,293
39,260
41,112
44,83
49,18
.
64,go-
SS,31"
93,94f
90,23;
81 , 4 1
90,764
6,85
6 ,963
7,806
8,56 L
9,452
10 ,610
10,94 1
11,654
13,071
14,75
1 6 , 6 8 ()
17,288
18,445
26,259
36,730
37,474
42,200
46,699
53,819
68,178
82,85*
94,878
91,34(
81,71
88,99(
7,060
7 ,255
7,764
8,628
9,799
10 , 3 4 2
11,135
11,725
13,563
14,871
16,532
17,943
19,498
28,544
37,033
38,293
43,644
47,049
56,214
74,257
85,584
93,436
87 , 4 0 8
85,068
91,124
NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain
'This series contains revisions beginning with 198
series contains r e v i s i o n s beginning with 1981.
104
Year
7,079
7,441
7 , 6 85
9,030
10,002
10,795
11,559
12,118
13,297
15,469
16,561
16,508
21.039
31,479
38,609
40,703
44 , 6 7 4
45,692
60,775
79,454
88,730
93,501
81,077
85,396
91 , 5 3 9
3,067
2,611
1,43 7
2,576
2,897
4,753
6,271
3,46 2
1,148
4,892
5,571
4,521
5,224
6,801
4,951
3,817
3,800
635
607
2,603
-2,260
-6,416
911
-5,505
8,903
-9,483
-31,091
-33,947
-27,536
-25,481
-27 , 9 7 8
-36,444
-62,012
-108,282
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965,
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961 .
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968,
1969.
1970 .
1971.
1972 ,
1973.
1.97 4.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981 .
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
807
942
1,092
1,490
1,689
1,953
1,857
1,875
2,430
2,673
3,030
3,198
3,576
5,187
7,104
6,002
7,371
7,999
9,704
14,929
15,933
21,736
22,522
19,172
20,895
846
997
1,084
1,531
1,739
1,853
1,873
2,075
2,402
2 , 7 94
2,977
3,156
3,80 3
5,913
7,123
6,352
7,429
8,337
10,465
17,445
17,807
22,088
21,862
20,985
21,769
TOTAL
892
1,032
1,245
1,604
1,677
1,733
1,959
2,181
2 , 3 46
2,875
2,773
3,340
3,933
6,080
6,46 4
6,864
7,455
8,129
12,465
18,285
18,818
21,887
19,407
19,932
21.445
1,488
1,308
1,152
2,091
2,390
1,961
1,420
1,258
657
1,107
1,080
-170
-222
4,568
1,630
6,050
1,179
-4,905
-12
482
3,824
3,113
-3,772
-14,228
-21,382
3,817
2,356
532
1,959
2,153
4,145
5,901
2,356
310
5,132
6,346
6,025
7,167
9,604
8,285
5,963
5,708
3,563
3,393
5,625
2 ,269
-1,941
11,021
9,147
22,729
9,205
-9,894
-10,321
4,659
8,950
13,186
84
-31,937
-90,119
589
1,640
1,121
1,486
2,551
1,933
1,827
1,533
826
774
1,407
1,508
-690
903
4,589
5,421
3,569
-1,625
-5,013
2,065
124
5,012
2,597
-1,454
16,852
803
1,324
1,43 2
1 ,870
2,241
2 ,363
1,534
1,480
1,160
742
1,7 82
485
-710
1,903
1,958
6,126
2,627
-1,803
-3,138
86
35
2,771
3,982
-7,163
-22,261
1,160
1,257
1,336
1,721
2,421
2,025
1,181
1,435
922
766
1,354
444
-319
3,647
968
5,151
1,82 8
-1,563
-2,158
2,026
4,965
2,291
-2,724
-9,091
-29,624
5,591
6,133
6,533
6,939
7,612
8,834
10,139
10,860
12.6 40
14,362
15,481
16,678
21.261
26,911
36,979
34,653
43,495
50,597
60.7 87
78,972
84,906
90,388
84,849
99,624
112,921
15.047
15,766
16,546
15 ,930
17.795
19,627
20,752
20,861
23,342
23,729
23,591
25,778
27 ,047
29,222
32,801
38,599
41 , 6 0 6
48,600
54,129
60,050
66,569
7 9,43 5
99,219
137,519
133,000
162,425
194,170
230,316
2 82,138
333,536
362,573
349,974
365,524
452,539
TOTAL
669. IMPORTS OF GOODS AHD SERVICES
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
18,864
18,122
17,078
17,889
19,948
23,772
26,653
23,217
23.652
28,861
29,937
31,80 3
34,214
38,826
41 ,087
44,562
47 ,314
52,363
57,522
65,674
6 8,836
77,495
110,241
146,666
155,729
171,630
184,276
219,994
286,796
342,485
375,759
350,058
333,586
362,421
806
973
999
1,532
1,718
1,698
1,837
1,890
2,190
2,569
2,968
3,012
3,451
4,628
6,895
6,113
7,031
7,714
9,612
13,474
19,949
20 , 7 0 1
20,978
17,935
23,502
1951 .
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963 .
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967 .
1968.
1969,
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
^visions beginning with 1978.
2
This series contains revisions beginning with 1977,
6,016
5,5 85
6,233
6,511
7,023
7,40 8
9,094
10,285
11,609
11,654
14,495
15,589
19,202
23,055
29,704
33,839
3 7,543
46,462
54,200
62,842
85,193
88,934
87,636
82,865
107,616
6,050
5,639
6,374
6 ,691
7,211
6,247
9,413
10 , 1 7 4
11,911
14,011
14,898
16,803
19,155
24,356
34,772
31,348
39,573
48,502
56,957
68,092
82,821
92,107
87,358
88,875
111,257
5,900
5,998
6,428
6,907
7,378
8,317
9,954
10,290
12,641
14,105
15,178
17,499
19,817
24,897
36,065
33,142
41,816
48,612
58,372
72,231
80,619
91,145
90,132
94,159
120,748
Annual
1,882
1,82 8
1,910
2,227
2,444
2,662
2,817
2,845
3,043
4,616
4,999
5,618
6,157
6,824
7.43 7
7,528
8,020
9,368
10,912
11,747
12,707
14,764
21 . 80 8
27,587
25,351
29,286
32,179
42,245
64,132
72,506
86,411
84,76 8
78,023
87,609
667. BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
414
421
461
420
489
568
639
669
828
1,237
1 ,245
1,324
1,561
1,764
2,088
2,481
2 , 7 47
3,378
4,869
5,516
5,43 6
6,572
9,655
12,084
12,564
13,311
14,217
2 1 , 6 80
32,960
42,120
52,329
55,273
52,621
68,500
IV Q
IQ
651. INCOME ON U.S. INVESTMENT ABROAD 1
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
INCOME ON FOREIGN IHVESTMENT IN THE UNITED STATES *
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
196 0
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
Annual
TOTAL
{SEPTEMBER 1985)
3
This
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T
III III
Components of BCD series 26 1
Year
and
quarter
Implicit price
deflator, gross
nonfarm business
product
(Index: 1977=100)
Unit labor cost,
all persons, nonfarm
business sector
(Nov.)
T
TTT
Components of BCD series 26—
(Index: 1977=100)
1983
I Q....
II Q...
Ill Q..
IV Q...
(Jan.)(July) (July)
P T
P
151.9
152.7
153.8
155.2
157.6
155.9
155.9
157.1
156.3
157.3
159.0
160,1
158.3
157.6
159,5
160.0
162.3
163.4 ,
163.3
164.2
:it price deflator, gross nonfarm
Implicit
business product, Q
(index: 1977 = 100)
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
-» 80
1984
I Q,...
II Q...
Ill Q..
IV Q...
1985
I Q....
II Q...
Ill Q..
IV Q...
Unit labor cost, all persons, nonfarm
business sector, Q
^
(index: 1977 = 100)
Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars 2
Year
and
month
Manufacturing
(Ratio)
Merchant
wholesalers
(Ratio)
Ratio scale
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars (ratio)
Retail trade
Arithmetic
scale
-I
2.2
(Ratio)
2.1
1984
Jan....
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
1.71
1.72
1.72
1.74
1.74
1.75
1.30
1.34
1.33'
1.34
1.30
1.29
1.29
1.33
1.36
1.34
1.32
1.30
July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec..
1.77
1.76
1.80
1.80
1.78
1.74
1.32
1.34
1.37
1.37
1.37
1.36
1.33
1.34
1.33
1.36
1.35
1.34
2,0
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.5
1.4
1985
Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
1.78
1.78
1.77
1.78
1.76
rl.78
1.36
1.38
1.38
1.35
1.34
1.43
1.37
1.37
1.38
1.36
1.35
1.36
July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
pi. 78
(NA)
pi.39
(NA)
pi.36
(NA)
1972
NOTE:
The
"r"
indicates
revised;
"p",
preliminary;
and
"NA">
not
available.
1
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
1.3
1.2
1.5
1.4
1.3
1983 1984 1985
105
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly, Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Net contribution to index
Basic data
Series title
(and unit of measure)
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). .
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs1 (thous.). . .
8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer
goods and materials industries (bil. do!.). .
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving slower deliveries (percent) . . . .
12. Net business formation
(index: 1967=100)
..
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)
29. New private housing units authorized by
local building permits (index: 1967=100). . .
36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in
1972 dol., smoothed2 (ann. rate, bil. dol.) .
99. Change in sensitive materials prices,
smoothed2 (percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index; 1941-43=10)
106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars
(bil. dol.)
111. Change in business and consumer credit
outstanding (ann. rate, percent)
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators3
(index: 1967=100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thous.)
51. Personal income less transfer payments in
1972 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
47. Industrial production
(index: 1977=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972
dollars (mil. dol.)
920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident
indicators3 (index: 1967=100) .
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment1
(weeks)
77, Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories
to sales in 1972 dollars (ratio)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing-actual data as a percent of trend (percent) .
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
101, Commercial and i n d u s t r i a l loans outstanding
in 1972 dollars ( m i l . d o l . )
. . . . . . . . . .
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit
outstanding to personal income (percent). . .
930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 3
(index: 1967=100)
May
1985
June
1985
May
to
June
1985
Aug.
1985
July
1985
June
to
July
1985
July
to
Aug.
1985
40.4
40.4
r40.3
p40.5
0.00
-0.08
0.17
3 83
392
381
375
-0.06
0.08
0.05
37.88
37.40
r37.63
p38.35
-0.06
0.03
0.10
44
44
44
42
0.00
0.00
-0 .09
114.3
117.6
118.0
P119.0
0 .40
0.05
0.13
14.79
rl5.56
rl5.36
pl5.36
0.11
-0.03
0.00
141 .8
136.5
135.1
142.3
-0.11
-0.03
0.17
r0.18
r-3.68
p-2.18
-0.22
0.08
-0.22
-0.13
-0.35
-0.52
0.04
-0.09
-0.07
184.90
188.89
192.54
188.31
0.13
0.12
-0.15
954.0
962.8
r967.8
p975.0
0.29
0.17
0.26
11.3
r3.6
r8.8
p7.6
-0.40
0.27
-0.07
167.4
rl67.8
rl69.0
pl70.1
0.24
0.72
0.65
97,421
r97,473
r97,722
p98,010
0.04
0 .21
0.32
rl , 2 0 4 . 8
rl,205.6
rl , 2 0 7 . 0
pi,210.4
0.03
0.06
0.18
rl24.1
rl24.4
rl24.4
p!24.8
0.07
0.00
0.12
rl82,711
rl78,984
pl80,262
-0.46
0.16
rl59.6
158.9
rl59.3
pl60.0
-0.44
0.25
0.44
14.9
15.4
15.4
15.6
-0.24
0.00
-0.14
1.55
1.58
pi.57
0.40
-0.13
r85.2
r84,9
r84.4
p84.2
-0.11
-0.18
-0.11
10.31
9.78
9.50
9 .50
-0.37,
-0.20
0.00
rl28,086
rl26,706
127,544
-0.29
0.17
0.20
15.62
rl5.73
pl5.86
0.42
0.50
rl28.3
rl28.1
rl28.3
-0.16
0.16
NA
NA
NA
pl28,221
NA
pl28.3
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.00
NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. I t is
computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components
and dividing that result by the index standardization f a c t o r . See the February 1983 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 108-109) or
the 1984 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 67-68) for the weights and standardization factors. NA, not available. p, p r e l i m i nary, r, revised, e, estimated.
''This series is inverted in computing the composite index; i . e . , a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
f i g u r e s in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment factor
for the leading index is 0.139; for the coincident index, -0.175; for the lagging index, 0.018.
2
106
G Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
1J1111M] I M 1111 M 11111111111111 [ I H 11 [ I Ft M 1
8. New orders for consumer goods and
materials, 1972 dollars, smoothed1
DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
DATA
YEAR
TROUGH
7/81
l
SERIES
8
BIL. DOL.
II1111II111 M i l III1 111 III11] IIII111 M M l 111IIII1111
Deviations
from
specific
troughs
8. New orders for consumer goods and
materials, 1972 dollars, smoothed1
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
Percent
21
22
23
24
8.7
8.2
8.5
9.5
37.04
36.86
36.96
37.29
8/84
9/84
10/84
11/84
25
26
27
28
11 .7
11 .8
11.5
9.8
38.04
38.08
37.98
37.40
12/84
1/85
2/85
3/85
29
30
31
32
9.8
10.3
10.5
10.9
37.42
37.58
37.64
37.79
4/85
5/85
6/85
7/85
50
• 42
-
40
-
30
#40
• 33
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
10/82
DATA
YEAR
• 36
-
20
•
34
•
32
•
145
•
135
SERIES
8
BIL. DOL
22
23
24
28.3
27.6
28.0
37.04
36.86
36.96
8/84
9/84
10/84
25
26
27
28
29.1
31.7
31.9
31.5
37.29
38.04
38.08
37.98
11/84
12/84
1/85
2/85
29
30
31
32
29.5
29.6
30.1
30.3
37.40
37.42
37.58
37.64
3/85
4/85
5/85
6/85
30.9
37.79
7/85
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
DATA
YEAR
7/81
SERIES
46
1967=100
46. Help-wanted advertising
22
23
24
4.9
10.6
11.4
129
136
137
9/84
10/84
11/84
25
26
27
28
17.9
13.0
13.8
12.2
145
139
140
138
12/84
1/85
2/85
3/85
29
30
31
32
6.5
6.5
12.2
13.0
131
131
138
139
4/85
5/85
6/85
7/85
33
8.1
133
8/85
M25
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
FROM
SPEC.
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
DATA
YEAR
9/82
M05
*
SERIES
46
1967=100
-
40
- 30
24
76 . 7
129
9/84
25
26
27
28
86
87
98
90
.3
.7
.6
.4
136
137
145
139
10/84
11/84
12/84
1/85
29
30
31
32
91.8
89.0
79.5
79.5
140
138
131
131
2/85
3/85
4/85
5/85
33
34
35
89.0
90.4
82.2
138
139
133
6/85
7/85
8/85
- 20
• 85
- 10
• 75
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 11 • l i 11 ] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
-12 - 6
0 + 6
+12+18+24+30+36
Months from reference troughs
-J 0
I I f 11 M 111 (f I (1111111 11111 U 11111 11111111111111111
-12 - 6
0 + 6 +12+18+24+30+36
Months from specific troughs
NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of the July 1935 issue.
*This series is an MCD moving average placed on the center month of the span. Specific trough dates used, however, are those for the actual series.
Numeral indicates latest month used in computing the series.
107
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued
[Mill 111 ii 11 ni i n n j ii i n j n ii I I T I I I I I UTI I I IT n i
Actual
data
21. Average weekly overtime hours,
manufacturing
1 1 1 1 M 1 1 IT 1 1 1 T 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 ! l l P T T T I I I l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH
CURRENT MONTH
AND
ACTUAL
DATA YEAR
Devi- Actual
ations data
for
from
specific current
21. Average weekly overtime hours,
manufacturing
SERIES 21
HOURS
L,C,L
D
4.5
1970
3.3
3,3
3.4
25
26
27
28
3.4 12/84
3.4
1/85
3.3 2./85
3.2 3/85
29
30
31
32
3.4
3.1
3.2
3.2
4/85
5/85
6/85
7/85
3.3
8/85
4.0
3.5
9/84
10/84
11/84
22
23
24
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MOHTH
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH 12/82
DATA YEAR
SERIES 21
HOURS
21
22
23
24
1 .0
1 .0
1.1
1 .1
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
9/84
10/84
11/84
12/84
2.5
25
26
27
28
1 .1
1 .0
0.9
1 .1
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.4
1/85
2/85
3/85
4/85
2.0
29
30
31
32
0.8
0.9
0.9
1 .0
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.3
5/85
6/85
7/85
8/85
3.0
• 2.6
• 2.4
MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH
CURRENT MONTH
AND
ACTUAL
DATA YEAR
-i
60
59
22
23
24
58.88
58.96
59.06
9/84
10/84
11/84
25
26
27
28
59.20
59.24
59.35
59,55
12/84
1/85
2/85
3/85
29
30
31
32
59.41
59.37
58.99
59.21
4/85
5/85
6/85
7/85
59.32
8/85
58
57
55
Median
iiliniilimi iiiiiliinilimiliiinliiiiilmn
54
Actual
3.0
2.5
19
20
2.45
2.53
58.88
58.96
9/84
10/84
21
22
23
24
2 .63
2 .77
2.81
2.92
59.06
59.20
59.24
59.35
11/84
12/84
1/85
2/85
25
26
27
28
3.12
2.98
2.94
2.56
59.55
59.41
59.37
58.99
3/85
4/85
5/85
6/85
29
30
2.78
2.89
59.21
59.32
7/85
8/85
Months from reference troughs
NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of the July 1985 issue.
• 59.0
2.0
SERIES 90
PERCENT
0 + 6 +12+18+24+30+36
90. Ratio, civilian employment to
population of working age
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
2/83
DATA YEAR
TROUGH
56
108
0.0
SERIES 90
PERCENT
90. Ratio, civilian employment to
population of working age
-12 - 6
-
1
1.5
1.0
0.5
-J 0.0
HI him IIII ii in 11 If mi limihmi mm It
-12 -6
0 +6 +12+18+24+30+36
Months from specific troughs
• 58.0
#57,5
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued
r 11 m r 111 H I T 11 i i r 111 r i r 11
N M
1111 ii 11 (
M
11111 ( n
Actual
36. Net change in inventories on
hand and on order, smoothed'
MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH
CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
DATA
YEAR
Deviations
from
specific
troughs
36. Net change in inventories on
hand and on order, smoothedx
SERIES
36 x
ANN. RATE
B I L . DOL
+ 40
+ 30
+20
+ 10
14.89
17.27
17.98
11.58
21
22
23
24
8/84
9/84
10/84
11/84
25
26
27
28
4.63
3.30
9.00
12.30
12/84
1/85
2/85
3/85
29
30
31
•32
8.99
0.18
-3.68
-2.18
4/85
5/85
6/85
7/85
Actual
- 1 60
50
40
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
DATA
YEAR
1/83
+10
30
57. Manufacturing and trade sales,
1972 dollars
• 0
19
20
39.05
41.43
14.89
17.27
8/84
9/84
20
-10
21
22
23
24
42.14
35.74
28.79
27 .46
17.98 10/84
11.58 11/84
4.63 12/84
3.30
1/85
10
-20
25
26
27
28
33.16
36.46
33.15
24.34
9.00
12.30
8.99
0.18
2/85
3/85
4/85
5/85
-3.68
-2.18
6/85
7/85
29
30
20.48
21.98
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
FROM
REF.
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
7/81
YEAR
DATA
3/70
57. Manufacturing and trade sales,
1972 dollars
SERIES 57
MIL, DOL,
21
22
23
24
10.4
9.8
10.1
11.2
177143
176087
176602
178276
8/84
9/84
10/84
11/84
25
26
27
28
12.5
11.4
11.6
12.0
180437
178600
179051
179626
12/84
1/85
2/85
3/85
29
30
31
32
13.3
13.9
11.6
12.4
181644
182711
178984
180262
4/85
5/85
6/85
7/85
185,000
• 180,000
DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
SPEC.
YEAR
DATA
TROUGH
10/82
• 170,000
- 12
SERIES
57
MIL, DOL.
iiinimliiiii
-12 - 6
nlnnilinimimlnm
0 + 6 +12+18+24+30+36
current
cycle
D
SERIES 36*
ANN. RATE
BIL. DOL.
-30
Actual
data
for
22
23
24
18.6 17 7143
17.9 176087
18.2 176602
8/84
9/84
10/84
25
26
27
28
19.3
20.8
19.6
19.9
178276
180437
178600
179051
11/84
12/84
1/85
2/85
29
30
31
32
20.2
21.6
22.3
19.8
179626
181644
182711
178984
3/85
4/85
5/85
6/85
33
20.7 180262
7/85
Months from reference troughs
-
•
165,000
•
160.000
8
• 155,000
—1 0
•
150,000
Months from specific troughs
NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of the July 1985 issue.
*This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
109
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
A
Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Consumer sentiment, index
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, retail trade, Dl
Prices, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, manufacturing and trade, 01
Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Automobiles
Imports of automobiles and parts
Personal consumption expenditures
604
56
92
11/84
61
970
58
974
975
971
976
978
977
972
973
24
38
22
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
67
76
65
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
5/85
5/85
1/84
1/85
1/85
1/85
1/85
1/85
1/85
1/85
1/85
23
23
20
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
616
55
56
22
92
65
11/84
9/84
56
39
B
Balance of payments—See International transactions.
Bank loans—See Business Loans.
Bank rates-See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
Bonds—See Interest rates.
Borrowing—See Credit.
Budget—See Government.
Building—See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation, index
Business incorporations
Business inventories—See Inventories.
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Business saving
C
Canada—See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing
Materials
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
Newly approved
Newly approved, Dl
Capital equipment, producer price index
Capital investment—See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian labor force—See also Employment.
Employment
Employment as percent of population
Labor force
Unemployed
Coincident indicators, four
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded
Commercial and industrial loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Compensation—See also Income.
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Four coinciders, index
Four coincides, rate of change
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
Six laggers, index
Six laggers, rate of change
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Money and financial flows
Profitability
Twelve leaders, index
Twelve leaders, rate of change
See notes at end of index.
110
93
94
29
76
61
970
14
12
13
33
33
13,25
24
24
38
33
12,23
23
72
72
67
67
67
76
72
65
65
4/85
4/85
7/85
8/85
5/85
5/85
2/85
12/84
12/84
35
35
24
12
23
23
34
21
21
101
72
112
295
15,35
35
32
46
73
73
71
82
5/85
5/85
5/85
11/84
32
32
32
26
82
84
20
20
64
64
8/85
8/85
14
14
97
24
66
11
965
333
24
37
48
66
75
86
2/85
2/85
2/85
5/85
22
22
22
51
914
35
34
11
29
29
60
70
70
7/84
9/84
9/84
5
26
26
3/85
2/85
3/85
2/85
9
9
9
9
5
442
90
441
37
51
89
17
62
51
89
18,51 62,89
920
10
60
920c
951
940
9
39
36
11
23
....
74
60
66
9/85
9/85
12/84
7/84
12/83
"5
101
72
112
15,35
35
32
73
73
71
5/85
5/85
5/85
32
32
32
345
280
49
45
87
82
12/84
10/84
46
46
64
30,47
70,83
9/84
46
46
21
346
49
88
12/84
340
49
87
8/84
5
341
348
349
49
50
50
87
88
88
5/85
9/85
9/85
5
53
53
53
19
63
3/85
11
920
920c
940
10
39
11
60
9/85
9/85
7/84
5
930
930c
10
39
60
914
915
917
916
910
910c
11
11
11
11
10
39
60
60
60
60
60
60
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Series
description
(*)
"5
9/85
9/85
5
7/84
7/84
7/84
7/84
9/85
9/85
5
5
5
5
5
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and
industrial buildings
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales
Gross private fixed investment
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Housing starts
Consumer finished goods, producer price index
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures—See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contract awards, Defense Department
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits—See Profits.
Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Current issuc
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables
D
Debt-See Credit.
Defense and space equipment, industrial production
Defense Department
Gross obligations incurred
Gross unpaid obligations
Net outlays
Personnel, civilian
Personnel, military
Prime contract awards
Defense products
Inventories, manufacturers'
New orders, manufacturers'
Shipments, manufacturers'
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products industries, employment
Defense purchases, goods and services
Defense purchases, percent of GNP
Deficit—See Government.
Deflators—See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Deliveries, vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators..
Leading indicators
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components
New orders, manufacturing
.-.
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, manufacturing and trade
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Raw industrials, spot market prices, components
Sales, manufacturing and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing
Selling prices, retail trade
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Disposable personal income—See income.
Series
description
C)
29
13,25
67
7/85
9
69
23
24
66
67
12/83
8/85
21
17
86
248
87
89
249
28
334
8
75
25
47
25
25
47
25
48
12,21
22
67
83
67
67
83
67
86
64
65
9/84
10/84
9/84
9/84
10/84
3/85
5/85
7/85
8/85
40
40
40
40
40
24
51
15
12
66
113
95
39
35
32
15,35
33
73
72
73
72
6/85
6/85
6/85
7/85
33
33
33
34
320
322
58
49
49
22
84,95
84
65
4/85
4/85
1/84
49
49
20
525
53
90
11/84
55
20
12,23
66
8/85
21
66
73
8/85
9/85
21
35
10
116
23
34
Credit
Borrowing, total private
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Credit outstanding, percent change
Mortgage debt, net change
Crude and intermediate materials, change in
producer prices
Crude materials, producer price index
Historical
data
(issue date)
110
32
72
11/84
101
72
112
15,35
35
32
73
73
71
5/85
5/85
5/85
32
32
32
66
113
95
39
Ill
33
35
32
15,35
33
13,32
32
73
72
73
72
72
71
6/85
6/85
6/85
7/85
6/85
5/84
33
33
33
34
31
31
98
331
28
48
69
85
3/85
4/85
51
50
557
54
91
8/85
517
543
580
578
577
525
53
53
54
55
55
53
90
90
91
91
91
90
1/84
11/84
3/85
1/84
1/84
11/84
55
55
56
56
56
55
559
548
588
561
570
564
565
54
53
54
54
55
55
55
91
90
91
91
91
91
91
7/85
7/85
7/85
7/85
7/85
9/84
9/84
17
15
17
15
5
43
43
39
32
33
12,21
72
64
7/85
2/85
34
17
970
965
951
974
963
966
38
37
36
38
36
37
5/85
2/85
12/84
1/85
8/85
8/85
23
22
5
37
5
12
962
975
952
950
964
36
38
36
36
37
i/85
"8
37
5
5
15
971
960
972
967
38
37
38
37
973
976
978
977
968
961
38
38
38
38
37
36
76
75
74
76
74
75
78
74
76
74
74
75
77
76
75
76
75
79
76
76
76
76
75
74
77
1/85
12/84
12/84
7/85
i/85
5/85
1/85
1/85
i/85
1/85
1/85
1/85
7/85
8/85
'37
37
37
25
37
37
37
37
25
5
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Current issue
Series (page n u m b e f S >
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
E
Earnings—See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Civilian labor force
Defense Department personnel, civilian
Defense Department personnel, military
Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
Rate of change
Total
Employees in goods-producing industries
Employees, manufacturing and trade, 01
Employees on nonagricultural[payrolls
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, Dl
Employment, civilian
Employment, defense products industries
Employment, ratio to population
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl
Overtime hours, manufacturing
Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Unemployed, both sexes 1619 years of age
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment, civilian
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured
Unemployment rate, total
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Workweek, manufacturing, Dl
Equipment—See Investment, capital.
Exports—See International transactions.
441
578
577
51
55
55
48c
48
40
974
41
963
442
570
90
46
60
5
962
21
453
452
451
448
42
446
445
447
444
91
37
44
45
43
1
39
17
17
38
14,17
36
51
55
17
16
16
12,16
36
16
51
51
51
51
17
51
51
51
51
15,18
18,51
18
18
18
12,16
961
36
89
91
91
6i'
62
76
62
74
89
91
62
61
61
61
74
61
89
89
89
89
62
89
89
89
89
62
62,89
62
62
62
61
77
74
3/85
1/84
1/84
9
56
56
12/84
12/84
7/85
1/85
7/85
8/85
3/85
7/85
2/85
2/85
2/85
1/85
1/85
7/85
3/85
3/85
3/85
3/85
2/85
3/85
3/85
3/85
3/85
2/85
2/85
2/85
3/85
2/85
7/85
"5
5
37
5
5
9
5
9
9
9
8
8
5
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
9
5
8/85
"5
Federal funds rate
Federal Government—See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, Cl
Fixed investment—See Investment, capital.
Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic
business product
Food—See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade—See International transactions.
France—See International comparisons.
Free reserves
H
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Hours, manufacturing
Average weekly hours. .
Average weekly hours, components
Average weekly hours, Dl . .
Average weekly overtime
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local building permits
Residential GPDI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP
..
..
..
...
...
.
..
119
34
72
9/85
94
213
917
33
40
11
72
80
60
4/85
10/84
7/84
311
48
84
9/84
93
33
72
4/85
35
38
5
49
20
63
9/84
502
501
500
512
511
510
298
52
52
52
52
52
52
46
90
90
90
90
90
90
83
9/84
9/84
9/84
9/84
9/84
9/84
11/84
53
53
53
53
53
53
48
263
262
265
564
565
267
266
268
261
260
43
43
47
55
55
43
43
47
43
43
81
81
83
91
91
81
81
83
81
81
10/84
10/84
10/84
9/84
9/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
311
68
48
30
84
70
9/84
9/85
49
28
63,80
80
80
80
80
80
71
63
84
80
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
5/85
9/84
9/84
10/84
38
38
38
38
38
38
30
14
38
38
9
9
50 19,40
50b ....
50c
39
200 40
200b
200c
107
31
49
20
310 48
217 40
43
43
43
capital.
46
60
16
16
61
61
2/85
2/85
1
12,16
5
36
16
61
77
74
61
7/85
961
21
8/85
7/85
"b
5
..
Current issue
Series <page n u m b f i r s >
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
28
29
89
249
25
13,25
25
47
67
67
67
83
3/85
7/85
9/84
10/84
310
48
84
9/84
345
280
49
45
87
82
12/84
10/84
Series
description
C)
24
24
40
40
I
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Imports—See International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita,
constant dollars
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars
Rate of change
Total
F
G
Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget
Federal expenditures . . . .
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit
.
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense
National defense, percent of GNP
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars .
Total, current dollars
Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted
price index..
.
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes
GNP, current dollars . . . .
GNP, current dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply M l
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator ..
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic investment—See Investment,
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Series
description
(•)
Personal income, ratio to money supply M2
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial commodities, producer price index
Industrial production—See also International comparisons.
Business equipment
Consumer goods
Defense and space equipment
Durable manufactures
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total, components
Total, Dl
Total, rate of change
Industrials, raw, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Installment credit—See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Average weekly initial claims
Average weekly initial claims, Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
. .
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
Intermediate materials, producer price index
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
Italy
.
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
46
46
64
30,47
70,83
9/84
46
346
95
286
49
15,35
45
88
73
82
12/84
6/85
11/84
46
33
26
287
225
224
47
40
40
83
80
80
11/84
10/84
10/84
26
U
11
227
40
80
10/84
340
49
87
8/84
341
652
651
288
289
220
52
223
49
57
57
45
47
45
19
40
87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63
5/85
9/85
9/85
11/84
11/84
10/84
9/84
9/84
5
57
57
47
47
46
11
11
51c
39
51
14,19 63
ii
30
47
108
282
31
45
71
82
9/84
9/84
4/85
10/84
283
284
47
45
83
82
10/84
10/84
47
47
285
348
349
47
50
50
83
88
88
11/84
9/85
9/85
47
53
53
53
13
335
19
23
48
63
65
85
3/85
12/84
5/85
21
51
8/85
8/85
8/85
8/85
8/85
8/85
12
12
13
12
12
12
8/85
8/84
i2
76
24
75
22
557
54
73
20
74
20
47 14,20,58
67
65
91
63
63
63,94
78
75
U
966
47c
37
39
967
23
37
28
79
75
69
1/85
1/85
25
25
5
962
45
288
289
12,16
36
18
45
47
61
74
62
82
83
1/85
1/85
3/85
11/84
11/84
8
8
8
47
47
67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
332
35
34
34
34
34
35
34
34
48
73
73
72
73
73
73
72
73
86
2/85
9/85
9/85
9/85
9/85
6/85
9/85
9/85
5/85
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
50
733
736
737
738
732
320
735
59
59
59
59
59
49
59
96
95
96
95
95
84,95
95
6/85
6/85
6/85
6/85
6/85
4/85
6/85
60
61
61
61
60
49
61
94
94
94
94
94
94
63,94
94
5/84
5/84
5/84
5/84
5/84
5/84
8/85
5/84
59
59
59
59
58
58
12
723
58
726
58
727
58
728
58
721
58
722
58
47 14,20,58
725
58
59
See notes at end of index.
111
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
International transactions
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, excluding military aid
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, constant dollars
Exports of goods and services, current dollars
Exports of goods and services, excluding military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, general
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services, constant dollars
Imports of goods and services, current dollars
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S, investment abroad
Net exports of goods and services,
constant dollars
Net exports of goods and services,
current dollars
„
Net exports of goods and services, percent of GNP
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories, change, percent of GNP
Defense products, manufacturers'
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade, book value
Manufacturing and trade, change in book value
Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing and trade, on hand and
on order, change
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers'
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers', change
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, 01
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Business inventories, change—See Inventories.
Fixed investment, constant dollars
Fixed investment, current dollars
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential producers' durable equipment,
constant dollars
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
New orders, nondefense capital goods,
constant dollars
New orders, nondefense capital goods,
current dollars
Plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new
Business expenditures, new, 01.....
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Italy—See International comparisons.
Current issue
Series (page n u m b e r s >
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
743
746
747
748
742
19
745
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
96
96
96
96
96
98
96
1/84
1/84
1/84
1/84
1/84
1/84
1/84
63
63
63
63
.63
25
63
667
622
602
618
604
256
252
668
606
612
620
616
669
257
253
614
652
651
57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57
93
93
92
93
92
82
82
93
92
92
93
92
93
82
82
92
93
93
9/85
9/85
11/84
9/85
11/84
10/84
10/84
9/85
11/84
11/84
9/85
11/84
9/85
10/84
10/84
11/84
9/85
9/85
57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57
255
44
82
10/84
250
251
44
47
82
83
10/84
10/84
44
44
30
26,42
245 42
247 47
559 54
65
27
77 15,27
915
11
71
27
31
26
70
27
975
38
68,81
81
83
91
68
68
60
68
68
68
76
9/84
10/84
10/84
7/85
6/85
11/84
7/84
11/84
6/85
11/84
1/85
40
40
40
17
17
17
5
17
17
17
37
36 13,26
68
3/85
17
78
27
68
6/85
17
38
26
68
6/85
17
97
11
965
914
9
24
24
37
11
23
66
66
75
60
66
2/85
2/85
2/85
7/84
12/83
22
22
22
5
21
69
24
67
8/85
243
242
86
248
42
42
25
47
81
81
67
83
10/84
10/84
9/84
10/84
40
40
40
40
88
87
89
249
241
240
25
25
25
47
42
42
67
67
67
83
81
81
9/84
9/84
9/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
40
40
40
40
40
40
27
23
66
8/85
24
23
m
8/85
61
24
970 38
20 12,23
10
23
67
76
66
66
5/85
5/85
8/85
8/85
23
23
21
21
652
651
57
57
93
93
9/85
9/85
57
57
68
63
30
30
70
70
9/85
9/85
28
28
30
15
29
70
70
70
8/85
8/85
1/85
28
28
28
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Leading indicators, twelve
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
See notes at end of index.
112
62
62
26
930
10
60
930c
952
39
36
74
910
910c
10
39
60
9/85
9/85
12/84
9/85
9/85
Current issue
Series (paee numbws?
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(•)
950
14
104
36
33
31
74
72
71
12/84
2/85
4/85
78
27
68
6/85
38
84
8
26
20
12,21
68
64
64
6/85
8/85
7/85
917
11
60
7/84
104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117
31
31
31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
73
73
4/85
4/85
4/85
4/85
4/85
5/85
4/85
5/84
9/85
9/85
29
29
29
30
29
30
30
31
35
35
27
24
8
23
23
12,21
66
66
64
8/85
8/85
7/85
15
15
15
20
12,23
66
8/85
21
10
548
7
6
23
53
21
21
66
90
64
64
8/85
7/85
7/85
7/85
21
15
15
15
964
37
75
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
971
38
76
7/85
1/85
'l5
37
Nonresidential fixed investment
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
9/84
9/84
9/84
10/84
40
40
40
40
55
55
58
Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets, change in total
Loans-See Credit.
M
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories, change
Materials, capacity utilization rate
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials prices—See Price indexes.
Merchandise trade—See International transactions.
Military-See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total
Money supply M l , constant dollars
Money supply M l , percent changes
Money supply M2, constant dollars
Money supply M2, percent changes
Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
5
34
29
17
14
15
N
National defense—See Defense.
National Government—See Government.
National income—See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense,
constant dollars
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars
Durable goods industries, current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
77
88
25
67
Structures, constant dollars
87
25
67
Total, constant dollars
Total, percent of GNP
86
248
25
47
67
83
517
53
90
543
721
53
58
90
94
1/84
11/84
5/84
580
54
91
3/85
49
20
63
9/84
62
62
370
358
82
84
21
30
15
50
50
20
20
16
70
70
88
88
64
64
61
8/85
8/85
1/85
1/85
8/85
8/85
7/85
28
28
52
52
14
14
453
452
451
51
51
51
89
89
89
3/85
3/85
3/85
9
9
9
55
233
232
238
236
239
22
41
41
41
41
41
65
80
80
81
81
81
237
41
81
231
230
235
41
41
47
80
80
83
9/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
10/84
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
0
Obligations incurred, Defense Department
J
Japan—See International comparisons.
L
Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output, business sector
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Labor force—See Employment.
Lagging indicators, six
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Obligations unpaid, Defense Department
OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders-See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Outlays, Defense Department
Output—See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Goods output, constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Per hour, business sector
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing
Ratio to capacity, materials
Overtime hours, manufacturing....
P
Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total,
Total,
Total,
Personal
constant dollars
current dollars
percent of GNP
income—See Income.
5
Personal saving
292
46
82
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and petroleum products, imports
Plant and equipment—See also Investment, capital.
Business expenditures, new
Business expenditures, new, Dl
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Population, civilian employment as percent of
293
614
46
56
83
92
11/84
11/84
11/84
48
48
56
61
970
20
10
90
24
38
12,23
23
17
67
76
66
66
62
5/85
5/85
8/85
8/85
2/85
23
23
21
21
9
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Price indexes
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Deflators
Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Current issue
Series
number Charts Tables
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Stock prices—See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime contract awards, Defense Department
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer prices—See Price indexes.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI
Production—See Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Productivity
Output per hour, business sector
Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate profits after tax
Constant dollars
Current dollars
. . .
With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars
Corporate profits before tax
With IVA and CCAdj
With IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income.
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing, Dl . . .
.
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
. .
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate
domestic income..
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of
national income
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Reserves, free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars...
Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP....
Residential structures—See Housing.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
C)
49
49
84,95
84
4/85
4/85
49
49
311
310
26
48
48
29
84
84
70
9/84
9/84
1/85
49
38
28
330
333
331
334
335
332
98
48
48
48
85
86
85
86
85
4/85
5/85
4/85
5/85
5/85
5/85
3/85
50
51
50
51
51
50
51
967
23
37
28
79
75
69
1/85
1/85
25
25
98
99
28
13,28
69
69
3/85
3/85
51
25
19
968
26
13,28
37
29
75
70
1/84
7/85
1/85
25
25
28
976
978
977
525
109
38
38
38
53
35
76
76
76
90
73
1/85
1/85
1/85
11/84
6/85
37
37
37
55
35
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Salaries—See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, 01
Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade..
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit...!!
'.
Gross saving
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Selling prices-See Prices, selling
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Shipments of defense products
Spot market prices, raw industrials
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
State and local government—See Government.
Stock prices—See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Surplus—See Government.
Current issue
Series
* p a g e numbers)
number
Charts
Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
C)
10/84
213
40
69
57
56
973
77
59
54
24
14,22
22
38
15,27
22
22
67
65
65
76
68
65
65
8/85
11/84
11/84
1/85
11/84
4/85
4/85
17
17
17
37
17
20
20
295
298
290
292
293
46
46
46
46
46
82
83
82
82
83
11/84
11/84
11/84
11/84
11/84
26
48
48
48
48
98
99
588
28
13,28
54
69
69
91
3/85
3/85
7/85
51
25
17
967
23
'37*
28
79
75
69
1/85
i/85
25
25
19
968
13,28
37
69
75
1/84
7/85
25
25
114
115
34
34
72
73
9/85
9/85
35
35
91
60
5
962
15,18
16
12,16
36
62
61
61
74
2/85
2/85
1/85
1/85
9
9
8
8
446
445
447
444
37
51
51
51
51
18,51
89
89
89
89
62,89
3/85
3/85
3/85
3/85
2/85
9
9
9
9
9
44
45
43
18
18
18
62
62
62
2/85
3/85
2/85
9
8
9
561
96
25
54
21
21
91
64
64
7/85
6/85
6/85
15
15
15
107
108
32
31
31
12,21
71
71
64
5/85
4/85
2/85
30
30
17
1
12,16
961*
'36*
61
77
74
8/85
9/84
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
1/85
1/85
7/84
52
52
5
69
69
69
69
9/84
9/84
9/84
9/84
26
26
26
26
45
47
38
37
29
11
29
82
83
76
75
70
60
11/84
11/84
1/85
5/85
1/85
7/84
9/84
26
26
37
37
27
5
26
81
282
29
45
70
82
9/84
10/84
26
47
283
47
967
23
284
37
28
45
79
75
69
82
1/85
1/85
10/84
25
25
47
285
93
89
249
47
33
25
47
83
72
67
83
11/84
4/85
9/84
10/84
47
35
40
40
59
54
22
22
65
65
4/85
4/85
20
20
370
358
916
50
50
11
18
16
28
28
29
29
286
287
972
960
15
916
22
10/84
U
Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl ....
Number unemployed
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Full-time workers
Males 20 years and over
Total unemployed
Unemployment rates
15 weeks and over
Insured unemployment
Total
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change
United Kingdom—See International comparisons.
Velocity of money
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Series
description
320
322
Producer prices
All commodities
Capital equipment
Crude materials
Finished consumer goods
Industrial commodities
Intermediate materials
Historical
data
(issue date)
GNP to money supply Ml, ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio..
Vendor performance, slower deliveries
W
Wages and salaries—See Compensation.
West Germany—See International comparisons.
Wholesale (producer) prices—See Price indexes.
Workweek, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
.
. .
Components
Diffusion index
7/85
NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustm
* The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears.
113
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this
report in which they appear. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect relationships or
order among the series. " M " following a series title
indicates monthly data; "Q" indicates quarterly data.
Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by
"EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below
are referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Following the source for each series is an indication of
the pages on which that series appears. The "Series
Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers
for each series.
I-A. Composite Indexes
910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators
(includes series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99,
106,111) (M).-Source 1
(10,39,60)
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis
(23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).—The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(12,23,65)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(23,65)
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).—
Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home
Loan Bank Board; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(32,71)
34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(29,70)
36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on
hand and on order in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(13,26,68)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun
& Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)
37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2 and Federal Trade
Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(29,70)
38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials
and supplies on hand and on order, book value
(M),-Source 2
(26,68)
(18,51,62,89)
16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent
30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers
Association
(33,72)
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)
40. Employees on nonagriculturat payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M).—Source 3
(17,62)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—
Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source
3
(14,17,62)
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (M).-Source3
(17,62)
917. Composite index of money and financial flows
(includes series 104, 106, 111) (Wl).—Source
1
(1160)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(12,23,66)
920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—
Source 3
(16,61)
930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)
22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total
corporate domestic income (Q).—Source 1 (29,69)
914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)
915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).—Source
1
(11,60)
916. Composite index of profitability (includes series
19,26,80) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)
940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to
lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source
1
(11,60)
23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau,
Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981,
this series may not be reproduced without written
permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)
(28,69,79)
t-B. Cyclical Indicators
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3
(12,16,61,77)
24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2
(23,66)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)
43. Unemployment rate (M).-Source 3
(18,62)
44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks
and over (M).-Source 3
(18,62)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration
(18,62)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).-The Conference Board
(16,61)
47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
(M).-Source3
(17,39,61)
49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(20,63)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q),-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).—U.S. Department
of Labor, Employment and Training Administration;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(12,16,61)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3
(29,70)
(19,63)
6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64,77)
27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(23,66)
53. Wages and salaries in 1972 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).—Source 1 (19,63)
7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (21,64)
28. New private housing units started (M).—Source
2
(25,67)
8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).—Sources
land 2
(12,21,64)
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Source 2
(13,25,67)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(23,66)
114
30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)
31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories,
book value (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management Association of Chicago
(12,21,64)
51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1972
dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
52. Personal income in 1972 dollars (M).-Source 1
54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source
2
(22,65)
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
(Q).-Source 1
(22,65)
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars
(M),-Sourcesland2
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars
(M).-Sourcesland2
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University
of Michigan, Survey Research Center
(22,65)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (M)-Sources 1
and 2
(22,65)
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1972 dollars, producers' durable equipment ( Q ) . Sourcel
(25,67)
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to
number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1,
3, and The Conference Board
(16,61)
61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment by U.S.
nonfarm business (Q).—Source 1
(24,67)
89.
Gross private residential fixed investment in 1972
dollars (Q).—Source 1
(25,67)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1 and 4 .
(15,30,70)
90.
Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(17,62)
63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).—Source
3
(30,70)
91.
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).—Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods, book
value (EOM).-Source2
(27,68)
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).—
Source 4
(35,73)
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source
4
(35,73)
68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross
domestic product in 1972 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).-Source 1
(30,70)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (M).—Source
2
(24,67)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68)
(15,18,62)
93. Free reserves (M).-Source 4
(33,72)
94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source4
(33,72)
95.
Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to
personal income (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)
96.
Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Source 2
(21,64)
97.
Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board
(24,66)
98.
Percent change in producer prices for 28 sensitive
crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1
and 3
(28,69)
99.
Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1,
3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(13,28,69)
101.
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972
dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve
Bank of New York
(15,35,73)
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value
(EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal
Reserve Bank of New York
(35,73)
Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).—
Source 3
950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components (M).-Source 1
(36,74)
951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).-Source 1
(36,74)
952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Sourcel
(36,74)
960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about
600 companies ( Q ) . - D u n & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(35,75)
961. Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing
industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(36,74,77)
962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).—Source
1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and
Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(36,74)
963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries (M).—Source
3
(36,74)
964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35
durable goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2
(37,75,77)
965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 1972 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).-The Conference Board
(37,75)
102.
Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4
104.
Change in total liquid assets (M).—Sources 1 and
4
(31,71)
966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78)
73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M).-Source4
(20,63)
105.
Money supply M l in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 4
(31,71)
74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (M).-Source 4
(20,63)
106.
Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 4
(13,31,71)
967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (M) .-^Sources 1, 3, and Commodity
Research Bureau, Inc.
(37,75,79)
75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods
(M).-Source 4
(22,65)
107.
Ratio, gross national product to money supply M l
76. Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).~Source 4
(24,67)
108.
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).—
Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in
1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(15,27,68)
109.
Average prime rate charged by banks
4
110.
Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)
111.
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
(M).—Sources 1, 4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (13,32,72)
78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order, book value (EOM).—Source
2
(27,68)
79. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q). -Source 1
(29,69)
80. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with
inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q).—
Source 1
(29,70)
82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing ( M ) . - Source 4
(20,64)
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).—Source
4
(20,64)
85. Change in money supply Ml (M).—Source 4
112.
113.
87. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1972 dollars, structures (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)
(31,71)
.—Source
(35,73)
968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks,
46-82 industries (M).—Source 1 and Standard &
Poor's Corporation
(37,75)
970. Diffusion index of expenditures for new plant and
equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, 22 industries
(Q).-Sourcel
(38,76)
971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1, 4,
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71)
series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
Net change in consumer installment credit (M).—
Source 4
(32,72)
973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and
114.
Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury
bills (M).-Source 4
(34,72)
115.
Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).—U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)
116.
Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).—Citibank apd U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)
117.
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).--The
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
118.
Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).—
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
Federal Housing Administration
(34,73)
119.
Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4
(31,71)
86. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)
(Q).-Sourcesland4
(31,71)
I-C. Diffusion Indexes
(34,72)
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
115
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—
about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)
977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale tradeabout 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).
Source 1
(47,83)
245.
Change in business inventories in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
290. Gross saving (Q).-Source 1
(46,82)
292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1
(46,82)
Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47 r 83)
293. Personal saving rate (Q).—Source 1
(46,83)
247.
295. Business saving (Q).-Source 1
(46,82)
248. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 298. Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1
(46,83)
1
(47,83)
978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 249. Gross private residential fixed investment as a II—B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
1
(47,83) 310. Implicit price deflator for gross national product
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the 250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q).-Sourcel
(48,84)
source.)
(38,76)
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
Il-A. National Income and Product
gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers
30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars (Q).— 252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars
(M).-Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)
<Q).—Source 1
(44,82) 322. Consumer price index for all urban consumers,
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars
food (M).-Source 3
(49,84)
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
330. Producer price index, all commodities (M).—Source
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national 255. Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars
3
(48,85)
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
(Q).-Sourcel
(44,82)
331. Producer price index, crude materials for further
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).— 256. Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars
processing (M).—Source 3
(48,85)
Source 1
(40,80)
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82) 332. Producer price index, intermediate materials, sup213. Final sales in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(40,80) 257. Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars
plies, and components (M).—Source 3
(48,86)
(Q).-Sourcel
(44,82)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars
333. Producer price index, capital equipment (M). (Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(40,80) 260. Government purchases of goods and services in
Source 3
(48,86)
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
220. National income in current dollars (Q).—Source
334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods
L
(45,82) 261. Government purchases of goods and services in
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)
I
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
335. Producer price index, industrial commodities
223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source
(M).-Source3
(48,85)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser1
(40,63)
vices in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81) 340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).—
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural
Source 1
(40,80) 263. Federal Government purchases of goods and serpayrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,87)
vices in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80) 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser- 341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagriculvices as a percent of gross national product (Q).—
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 doltural payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,87)
Source 1
(47,83)
lars (Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars (Q),-Source 1
(41,80)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in current dollars (Q).~Source 1
(43,81)
345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,87)
231. Personal consumption expenditures in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
267.
State and local government purchases of goods and
services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
232. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
268.
State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product
(Q),-Source 1
(47,83)
346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,88)
233.
Personal consumption expenditures in 1972 dollars, durable goods (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)
237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
238. Personal consumption expenditures in 1972 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)
280.
Compensation of employees (Q).-Source 1
282.
Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source
1
(45,82)
Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
(42,81)
241. Gross private domestic investment in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment in current
dollars (Q).—Source 1
(42,81)
116
349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
changes over life of contract (Q)-Source 3 (50,88)
358.
Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,88)
283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments as a percent of
national income (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)
284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).—Source 1
(45,82)
Il-C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
285.
239. Personal consumption expenditures in 1972 dollars, services (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)
240.
(45,82)
348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
first year changes (Q).—Source 3
(50,88)
Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)
37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3
(18,51,62,89)
286.
Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—
Source 1
(45,82)
287.
Corporate profits before tax with inventory valua- 444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
tion and capital consumption adjustments as a
(M).-Source 3
(51,89)
percent of national income (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
(M).-Source3
(51,89)
Net interest (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)
288.
441. Civilian labor force (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
442. Civilian employment (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES—Continued
446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of
age (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
447.
Number unemployed, full-time workers (M).—
Source 3
(51,89)
448.
Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
452.
Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
453.
Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes
16-19 years of age (IW)-Source 3
(51,89)
570.
577. Defense Department military personnel on active
duty (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
578.
580.
II—D. Government Activities
500.
Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q). - Source
1
(52,90)
501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1
(52,90)
502.
Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)
510. State and local government surplus or deficit (Q).—
Source 1
512.
State and local government expenditures (Q).—
Source 1
(52,90)
517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the
Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
525.
588.
Defense Department prime contract awards for work
perlformed in the United States (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of
Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters
Services, Directorate for Information Operations
and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
Defense Department civilian personnel, direct hire employment (EOM) .-U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller),
Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for
Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
Defense Department net outlays, military functions
and military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of
Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense
(Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(54,91)
Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(54,91)
II—E, U.S. International Transactions
602.
(52,90)
511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)
Employment, defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(55,91)
Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).—
Source 2
(56,92)
604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
606.
Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source
2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
612.
General imports (M).-Source2
(56,92)
614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
(M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(56,92)
616.
Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
618.
Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
620.
Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
622.
Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense,
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)
651. Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)
548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products ( M ) —
652.
Income on foreign investment in the United States
(Q).-Sourcel
(57,93)
667.
Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1
668.
Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
669.
Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1
Source 2
557.
(53,90)
Index of industrial production, defense and space
equipment (M).—Source 4
(54,91)
559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book
value (EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products
(EOM).-Source2
(54,91)
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).—Source 1
(55,91)
565.
National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
(57,93)
(57,93)
47. United States, index of industrial production (M) .—
Source 4
320.
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)
United States, consumer price index for all urban
consumers (M).-Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)
722.
United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M) .-Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)
723.
Canada, index of industrial production ( M ) . —
Statistics Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)
725.
West Germany, index of industrial production (M).
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(58,94)
726. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)
727.
Italy, index of industrial production (M).-Istituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)
728.
Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)
732.
United Kingdom, consumer price index (M).—
Department of Employment (London); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
733.
Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
735.
West Germany, consumer price index
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden);
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
ic Analysis
736.
France, consumer price index (M).—Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris);
percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(59,95)
(M).—
percent
Econom(59,95)
737. Italy, consumer price index (M).—Istituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
738. Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M), Central
Statistical Office (London)
(59,96)
743.
Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa)
(59,96)
745.
West Germany, index of stock prices (M). Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)
746.
France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
747.
Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Banca d'ltalia
(Rome)
(59,96)
(57,93)
Il-F. International Comparisons
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
(59,96)
748. Japan, index of stock prices (M). Bank of Japan
(Tokyo)
(59,96)
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