Full text of Business Conditions Digest : September 1985
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary Sidney L. Jones, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Allan H. Young, Director Edward K. Smith, Associate Director for National Analysis and Projections FeliksTamm, Editor This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are— Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes Betty F. Tunstall—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541) The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources at the back of this report. This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting of the following persons: Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget Lincoln F. Anderson, Council of Economic Advisers John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury Edward K. Smith, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce Helmut F. Wendel, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ABOUT THIS RiPORT BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides a monthly look at many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts and forecasters. The original BCD, which began publication in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions and prospects. The report's contents were based largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its usefulness to analysts using other approaches to business conditions analysis. Principal additions to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's present title was adopted. The dominant feature of the current BCD is the cyclical indicators section, in which each business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way timing classification according to its behavior at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of presentation is explained in the introductory text which begins on page 1. Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic, $55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are available on request. Address correspondence Most of the data contained in this report also are published by their source agencies. A series finding guide and a complete list of series titles and sources can be found at the back of the report. Cyclical Indicators are economic time series which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process and by their average timing at business cycle peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks and troughs combined. These indicators have been selected primarily on the basis of their cyclical behavior, but they also have proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business conditions and prospects. They include selected components of the national income and product accounts; measures of prices, wages, and productivity; measures of the labor force, employment, and unemployment; economic data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with major foreign countries. concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable to Superintendent of Documents, BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST New Features and Changes for This Issue BCI» iii METHOD OF PRESENTATION Seasonal Adjustments MCD Moving Averages Reference Turning Dates Part I. Cyclical Indicators Part II. Other Important Economic Measures How To Read Charts How To Locate a Series Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes . . . . . . . 1 1 1 1 4 5 5 6 SEPTEMBER 1985 Data Through August Volume 25, Number 9 PART I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Al A2 A3 A4 Composite Indexes Leading Index Components Coincident Index Components Lagging Index Components Chart Table 10 12 14 15 60 — — — 16 19 21 23 . 26 28 31 61 63 64 65 68 69 71 36 — 39 74 77 — CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Bl B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 Employment and Unemployment Production and Income Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Fixed Capital Investment Inventories and Inventory Investment Prices, Costs, and Profits Money and Credit DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Cl C2 C3 Diffusion Indexes Selected Diffusion Index Components Rates of Change The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through September 30, 1986. BCI» PART II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AT A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 AND PRODUCT GNP and Personal Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Gross Private Domestic Investment Government Purchases of Goods and Services Foreign Trade National Income and Its Components Saving Shares of GNP and National Income Chart 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 Table 80 80 81 81 82 82 82 83 48 49 84 87 51 89 52 53 90 90 56 57 92 93 58 59 59 94 95 96 PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Price Movements Wages and Productivity LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Civilian Labor Force and Major Components GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Receipts and Expenditures Defense Indicators U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Merchandise Trade Goods and Services Movements INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Industrial Production Consumer Prices Stock Prices PART III. APPENDIXES A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators) QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators) B. Current Adjustment Factors C. Historical Data for Selected Series 97 98 D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide") E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (July 1985 issue) F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (August 1985 issue) G. Experimental Data and Analyses Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide Titles and Sources of Series 105 110 114 Readers are invited to submit comments and suggestions concerning this publication. Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230 NEW FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE A limited number of changes are made from time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic Changes in this issue are as follows: research, newly available time series, and 1 1. The series on expenditures for new plant and equipment by U.S. nonfarm business (series 61 and 970) have been revised by the source agency for the period 1982 to date. These revisions reflect the application of new seasonal adjustment factors. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Business Outlook Division. revisions made by source agencies in concept, composition, comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc. Changes may result in revisions of 2. The series on newly approved capital appropriations (series 11 and 965) and backlog of capital appropriations (series 97) have been revised by the source agency for the period 1984 to date. These revisions reflect the application of new seasonal adjustment factors. Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from The Conference Board, Inc., 845 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10022. 3. The series on funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (series 110) has been revised by the source agency for the period 1977 to date. This revision reflects the annual updating of the basic statistics and the application of new seasonal adjustment factors. Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics, Flow of Funds Section. 4. Appendix C contains historical data for series 63, 68, 114-119, 348, 349, 618, 620, 622, 651, 652, 667-669, 910, 920, and 930. 5. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series 8, 21, 36, 46, 57, and 90. The October issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for release on November 5. nt dataf additions or deletions of series, changes in placement of series in relation to other series, changes in composition of indexes, etc. ;: r ; ". I " v .-: s. :. .*; v, «.. .S .!• •,£ r1 ;• i t ft M 111 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS if .3 jj 15 S 8f i ,« .s : ! ! • E% rs .y .i lii" BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS .,. a monthly report that helps you analyze the current economy and future trends. . . . a statistical and technical supplement that helps you make maximum use of the monthly Business Conditions Digest. BCD has 1(a plethora of charts t h a t . . . provide more, information and perspective per minute of reading time than anything else you can find," according to Edgar R. Fiedler, former president of the National Association of Business ' Economists. (Across the Board, February 1984,) The HANDBOOK contains: • Descriptions of all BCD series, providing definitions, methods of compilation, coverage, and sources. • Historical data for 1947-82 for all BCD series. BCD contains: • Composite index methodology explaining the construction of the indexes in step-by-step detail. • Charts providing a 25-year perspective for about 300 economic time series that cover all major aspects of the economy. Expansions and contractions in the U.S. economy are clearly marked so that the leading, coincident, and lagging characteristics of the series are easy to observe. • Reference materials including— Scores for cyclical indicators Average leads or lags for cyclical indicators • Tables listing current data for all 300 series. Measures of variability • Appendixes providing historical data, cyclical turning points, cyclical comparisons, and seasonal adjustment factors. Business cycle turning dates Bibliography Addresses of data sources. To: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402 Enclosed is $ _ _ _ Q check LJ money order, or charge to my Deposit Account No. Credit Card Orders Only Total charges $ Fill in the boxes below. MasterCard and VISA accepted. Credit Business Conditions Digest... Annual subscription: $44.00 domestic, $55.00 foreign. Single copy: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Handbook of Cyclical Indicators... $5.50 Company or Personal Name Ad dituDnaia<jdr ?ss/at ten tiori liri e U IStr eet addre ss State Cit} 1 (or Co unt ry) PLEASE PRINT OR TYPE ZIP Cc>de 11 1 I Arsa Code I Area Code i—i—r~ M L Expiration Date <—i—r— Month/Year I I I Order • ; Card No. l,J I I I I iTTT-n Q i Customer's Telephone No.'s Charge orders may be telephoned to the GPO order desk at (202)783-3238 from 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. eastern time, Monday-Friday (except holidays). For Office Use Only Charges Quantity _____ Publications ____ Subscriptions Special Shipping Charges International Handling . Special Charges OPNR . UPNS Balance Due Discount Refund _ „ _ _ __... ___ _ _ __^ 982 GPO 606-91 0 METHOD OF PRESENTATION This report is organized into two major parts. Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time series which have been found to conform well to broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are individual indicators, the rest are related analytical measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes, and rates of change. Part II, Other Important Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which are valuable to business analysts and forecasters but which do not conform well enough to business cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a few exceptions: Four series which are included in part I are also shown in part II to complete the systematic presentation of certain sets of data, such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest section of part II consists of quarterly series from the national income and product accounts; other sections relate to prices, labor force, government and defense-related activities, and international transactions and comparisons. The two parts are further divided into sections (see table of contents), and each of these sections is described briefly in this introduction. Data are shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts begin with 1959, but those for the composite indexes and their components (part I, section A) begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two-panel format which covers only the period since 1973. Except for section F in part II, charts contain shading which indicates periods of recession in general business activity. The tables contain data for only the last few years. The historical data for the various time series are contained in the 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series. Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors, measures of variability, specific cycle turning dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other information of analytical interest. An index appears at the back of each issue. It should be noted that the series numbers used are for identification purposes only and do not reflect precise relationships or order. However, all series considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in the range 1 to 199. Seasonal Adjustments Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive intrayear variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; however, a separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or trading days in each month. As used in this report, the term "seasonal adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made. Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these are the official figures released by the source agencies. However, for the special purposes of this report, a number of series not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a seasonally adjusted basis. MCD Moving Averages Month-to-month changes in a series are often dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the smallest span of months for which the average change in the cyclical factor is greater than that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of 1. The charts in this report generally include centered MCD moving averages for those series with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations for the most recent months. Reference Turning Dates The historical business cycle turning dates used in this report are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general practice, neither new reference turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until after both the new reference peak and the new reference trough bounding the shaded area have been designated. The historical reference turning dates are subject to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed as a result of revisions in important economic time series. The dates shown in this publication for the 1948-70 time period are those determined by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and 1981-82. Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS Business cycles have been defined as sequences of expansion and contraction in various economic processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment, income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive, business cycles of historical experience have been definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in duration and intensity, reflecting changes in economic systems, conditions, policies, and outside disturbances. One of the techniques developed in business cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is the cyclical indicators approach. This approach identifies certain economic time series as tending to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad movements in aggregate economic activity. Such indicators have been selected and analyzed by NBER in a series of studies published between 1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research staff. The present format and content of part I of BCD are based on the results of that study. Section A. Composite Indexes and Their Components All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of timing at business cycle peaks and troughs, conformity to business expansions and contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability (currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme was developed and used to assess each series by all of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced a new list of indicators classified by economic process and typical timing at business cycle peaks and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below relating to section B.) This information, particularly the scores relating to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the selection of series to be included in the composite indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring series from many different economic-process groups and combine those with similar timing behavior, using their overall performance scores as weights. Because they use series of historically tested usefulness and given timing characteristics (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs), with diversified economic coverage and a minimum of duplication, composite indexes give more reliable signals over time than do any of the individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks N. N. Economic Process Cyclical^ Timing X . LEADING (L) INDICATORS (61 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT (C) INDICATORS (23 series) 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (15 series) II. PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) III. CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (18 series) V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) VI. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (18 series) VII. MONEY AND CREDIT (28 series) Marginal employment adjustments (3 series) Job vacancies {2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive unemployment (3 series) Capacity utilization (2 series) Orders ami deliveries (6 series) Consumption and trade (2 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments (5 series) Restdentiat construction (3 series) inventory investment (4 series) Inventories on hand and on order (1 series) Stock prices (1 series) Sensitive commodity prices (2 series) Profits and profit margins (7 series) Cash flows (2 series) Money (5 series) Credit flows (5 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Bank reserves (2 series) Interest rates (1 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive output and income (4 series) Industrial;: • production (4 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) Business investment expenditures (5 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (19 series) Comprehensive unemployment (2 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) (8 series) Comprehensive employment (3 series) Business investment expenditures (1 series) Consumption and trade ( I series) Business investment commitments (1 series) Velocity of money (2 series) interest rates (2 series) Inventories on hand and on order (4 series) Unit labor costs and labor share (4 series) Interest rates (4 series) Outstanding debt (4 series) Sensitive commodity prices (1 series) Profits and profit margins (1 series) Interest rates (1 series) B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs \ . Economic \Process CyclicalX Timing N. 1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (15 series) II. PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) III. CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (18 series) V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) VI. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (18 series) VII. MONEY AND CREDIT (28 series) Marginal employment adjustments (1 series) Industrial production (1 series) Orders and deliveries (5 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments (4 series) Residential construction (3 series) Inventory investment (4 series) Stock prices {1 series) Sensitive commodity prices (3 series) Profits and profit margins <6 series) Cash flows (2 series) Money (4 series) Credit flows (5 series) Credit dHficultits (2 series) Marginal employment adjustments (2 series) Comprehensive employment (4 series) Comprehensive output and income (4 series) Industrial production (3 series) Capacity utilization (2 series) Consumption and trade (3 series) Business investment commitments (1 series) Profits and profit margins (2 series) Money (1 series) Velocity o1 money (1 series) Orders and deliveries (1 series) Business investment commitments (2 series) Business investment expenditures (6 series) Unit tabor costs and labor share (4 series) Velocity of money (1 series) Bank reserves (1 series) Interest rates (8 series) Outstanding debt (4 series) LEADING (L) INDICATORS (47 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT (C) INDICATORS (23 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (40 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive unemployment (5 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) ( 1 series) Inventories on hand and on order (5 series) Bank reserves (1 series) independent measurement error and other "noise" in the included series are smoothed out in the index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly series that are acceptable in terms of relatively prompt availability and reasonable accuracy. The main composite indexes are distinguished by their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of leading indicators, series which historically reached their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the corresponding business cycle turns. There is an index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting of series which historically reached their turning points at about the same time as the general economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which includes series that typically reached their peaks and troughs later than the corresponding business cycle turns. The leading index contains series with long as well as short leads, but each series leads on the average over time and shows a frequency of leads at the individual turns exceeding that attributable to chance, given the historical distribution of cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948, leads were generally more frequent and longer at peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags were generally more frequent and longer at troughs than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and classifying the indicators takes into account these well-established differences in timing. Consequently, rough coincidences include short leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through + 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and plus denotes lags in months.) For purposes of constructing a composite index, each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are divided by the long-run average (without regard to sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile series are prevented from dominating the index. The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals tljie average of the trends of its four components. This trend, which is similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be viewed as a linear approximation to the secular movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both their trends and their average month-to-month percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index. (For a more detailed description of the method of constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.) In addition to these principal composite indexes, differentiated according to cyclical timing, there are five indexes based on leading indicators which have been grouped by economic process. Taken together, these additional indexes include all 12 component series of the overall leading index, plus a few related series. Also shown in this section is the ratio of the index of roughly coincident indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a series known to have a useful pattern of early cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of the composite indexes show the length, in months, of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference turning dates covered. The next set of data consists of series included in the principal composite indexes. These are the 12 components of the leading index, the 4 components of the coincident index, and the 6 components of the lagging index. Following the title of each series, its typical timing is identified by three letter symbols in a small box. The first of these letters refers to the timing of the given indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to* its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs combined. " L " denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a tendency to roughly coincide with the business cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency to lag. Since these series have been selected for the consistency of their timing at both peaks and troughs, all components of the leading index are denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that these classifications are based on limited evidence, namely the performance of the indicators during the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which included five peaks and five troughs. While the timing classifications are expected to agree with the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will not necessarily hold invariably in every instance. The timing of the series in the period since 1970 can be determined by inspection of the charts, where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and 1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of the NBER reference cycle chronology. Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process This section covers 111 individual time series, including the 22 indicators used in the construction of the composite indexes. The peak and trough timing classifications are shown on the charts in the same manner as described above, but this section includes series with different timing at peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at turning points of the given type. Eight series are unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19 series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs is included in the list of cyclical indicators. The classification scheme which groups the indicators of this section by economic process and cyclical timing is summarized in the two tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is based on the observed behavior of the series at five business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53, August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58, February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation distinguishes seven major economic processes and four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells identify subgroups of the given economic process with the given timing characteristic. The number of series in each such group is given in parentheses following the title. Complete information on how individual indicators are classified by timing at peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected measures and scores, is provided in the 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from numerous components. How the individual components of an aggregate move over a given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index which indicates the percentage of components that are rising (with half of the unchanged components considered rising). Cyclical changes in these diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, they are computed from changes measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter) spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans. Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes are shown for the component series included in each of the three composite indexes and for the components of some of the aggregate series shown in section B. Diffusion measures can be derived not only from actual data but also from surveys of anticipations or intentions. Indexes based on responses of business executives about their plans and expectations for several operating variables are presented, along with the corresponding indexes based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion series. This section also records rates of change for the three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate economic activity: GNP in constant dollars (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours in nonagricultural establishments, and personal income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for 1-quarter spans. Although movements in diffusion indexes and in rates of change for the same aggregates are generally positively correlated, these two measures present information about two related but distinct aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes measure the prevailing direction or scope of change, while rates of change measure the degree as well as the overall direction. As is the case for diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates of change tend to lead those of the corresponding indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead at the business cycle turns as well. Part I I . OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES This part is divided into six sections which cover a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series measuring various aspects of economic activity. Some of these series are very comprehensive, pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others have to do with particular sectors or markets, and still others relate to U.S. international transactions or to selected foreign countries. The represented variables include incomes, outputs, and expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; labor resources; government receipts, expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few key foreign countries. Section A. National Income and Product The national income and product accounts, compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and final expenditures for the personal, business, foreign, and government sectors of the economy. Section Al shows the gross national product, final sales, and personal and disposable personal income. The four major components of the gross national p r o d u c t - p e r s o n a l consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, government purchases of goods and services, and net exports of goods and services-are presented in sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in section A are presented in current as well as constant dollars. There are also a few per capita series. The national income and product accounts, briefly defined below, are described more fully in the Survey of Current Business, Part I, January 1976. Gross national product (GNP) is the market value of final goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by residents of the United States, before deduction of allowances for the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the most comprehensive measure of aggregate economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in business inventories. Personal income is the income received by persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income, and transfer payments, less personal contributions for social insurance. Disposable personal income is the personal income available for spending or saving. It consists of personal income less personal taxes and nontax payments to government, Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is goods and services purchased by individuals, operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included. Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and capital goods purchased by private business and Unemployment nonprofit institutions and the value of the change This section contains measures of the civilian in the physical volume of inventories held by labor force and its major components: Total private business. The former include all private purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for numbers of employed and unemployed persons. tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used The number of unemployed is subdivided into selected categories defined by sex, age, and class goods are also included. Government purchases of goods and services of worker. Also included are data on participation (A4) is the compensation of government employees rates for a few principal segments of the labor and purchases from business and from abroad. It force. excludes transfer payments, interest paid by Section D. Government Activities government, and subsidies. It includes gross investment by government enterprises but excludes Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surtheir current outlays. It includes net purchases of plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels: used goods and excludes sales and purchases of (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local land and financial assets. government. Also shown is a selection of series Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports from the discontinued Defense Indicators, less imports of goods and services. Exports are part These series measure defense activities which of the national production; imports are not, but are influence short-term changes in the national included in the components of GNP and are economy. Included are series relating to therefore deducted. More detail on U.S. obligations, contracts, orders, production, international transactions is provided in section E. shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment. National income (A6) is the incomes that These series are grouped according to the time at originate in the production of goods and services which the activities they measure occur in the attributable to labor and property supplied by defense order-production-delivery process. Series residents of the United States. Thus, it measures measuring activities which usually precede prothe factor costs of the goods and services pro- duction, such as contract awards and new orders, duced. It consists of the compensation of are classified as "advance measures of defense employees, proprietors' income, rental income of activity." Series measuring activities which tend to persons, corporate profits, and net interest. coincide with production, such as employment, and Saving (A7) is the difference between income activities which usually follow production, such as and expenditures during an accounting period. shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final Total gross saving includes personal saving, measures of defense activity." business saving (mainly undistributed corporate profits and capital consumption allowances), and Section E. U.S. International Transactions government surplus or deficit. This group includes monthly series on exports Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The major expenditure components of GNP (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as few selected components of these aggregates. Also percentages of GNP, and the major income shown are the balances between receipts and components of national income (compensation of expenditures for goods and services, merchandise, employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as and investment income. percentages of national income. Section F. international Comparisons Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity The important data on price movements include the monthly consumer and producer price indexes and their major components. Based largely on these series are the quarterly price indexes from the national income and product accounts, notably the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights reflecting the changing proportions of different expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are presented for the period since 1973. The group of series on wages and productivity consists of data on average hourly earnings and average hourly compensation (including earnings and other benefits) in current and constant dollars, output per hour of work in the business sector, and rates of change for most of these measures. This section is designed to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which we have important trade relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1973) provide important measures of the rates of inflation in the major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also shown beginning in 1973) tend to be significant as leading indicators. HOW TO READ CHARTS Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded area) as designated by NBER. Basic Data (Dec.) (NOT.) P I (NOT.) (Mar.) P T Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted. ("9" = September) Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or moving averages.) Dotted line indicates anticipated data. Broken line indicates actual monthly data for series where a moving average is plotted. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted. ( " I V " = fourth quarter) Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data. Parallel lines indicates a break in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.). Diffusion Indexes Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Broken line indicates monthly data over 1-month spans. Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual series. "Scale A " is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-1" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles in that distance, etc. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are; used in computing the indexes. Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over 1-quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. Diffusion indexes and rates of change are centered within the spans they cover. Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER. Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over various spans. Rates of Change Solid line indicates percent changes over 3- or 6-month spans. Arabic number indicates latest month used in computing the changes. Broken line indicates percent changes over 1-month spans. Broken line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 1-quarter spans. Solid line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 3-or4-quarterspans. Roman number indicates latest quarter used in computing the changes. HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES 1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, o r - 2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of the report where series are listed numerically according to series numbers within each of the report's sections. Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators Basic data2 Series title and timing classification Unit of measure 1 Percent change Annual average 1983 1984 4th Q 1984 1st Q 1985 2dQ 1985 June 1985 July 1985 Aug. 1985 June July July 1985 Aug. 1985 4th Q to 1st Q 1985 istQ 2dQ 1985 I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS Al. Composite Indexes 910. 920. 930. 940. Twelve leading indicators Four roughly coincident indicators Six lagging indicators • Ratio., coincident index to lagging index 156.0 139.9 111.7 125.4 165.7 154.5 117.3 131 .8 164.5 157.7 121,9 129.3 167.3 158.5 125.0 126.8 167.4 159.5 127.5 125.2 167.8 158.9 128.1 124.0 169.0 159.3 128.3 124.2 170,1 160.0 128.3 124.7 0.7 0.3 0.2 0,2 0.7 0.4 0. 0.4 1 . 0.5 2.5 -1.9 0 .1 0.6 2.0 -1.3 108.8 102.8 104.7 130.7 110.3 105.3 110.8 136.4 109.5 103.2 112.5 135.9 110.5 102.7 113 .1 138.9 110.1 102.0 NA 136.2 110.7 101.6 NA 135.5 110.6 101 .6 NA 137.8 111 .4 101 .5 NA 138.6 -0,1 0. NA 1 .7 0.7 -0,1 0.6 0.9 -0.5 0.5 2. -0.4 -0.7 NA -1.9 Hours LrL,l do L,C,L... L,C,L... Thousands.... 40.1 3.0 426 40.7 3.4 366 40.5 3.4 3 96 40.4 3.3 3 90 40.3 3.2 387 40.4 3.2 392 40.3 3.2 381 40.5 3.3 375 -0.2 0. 2.8 0.5 0.1 1.6 -0.2 -0.1 1 .5 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 L,Lg,U... Ratio L,Lg,U..., 1967=100... 0.271 0.459 131 0.504 139 0.491 139 0.472 0.488 138 0.490 139 L,L,L,.. 1967=100... do C.C.C..., ....do Lg.Lg.Lg.... ....do L,L,L... Leading Indicator Subgroups: 914. Capital investment commitments 915. Inventory investment and purchasing 916. Profitability 917. Money and financial flows L.L.L. L.L.L. L.L.L.. L,L,L.. ...do... ...do... ...do... B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process B l . Employment and Unemployment Marginal Employment Adjustments: • 1 . Average weekly hours, mfg 21. Average weekly overtime hours, mfg.1 *5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted1) Job Vacancies: 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3 46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Comprehensive Employment: 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments 42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities • 4 1 . Employees on nonagricultural payrolls 40. Employees in goods-producing industries 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age3 Comprehensive Unemployment; 37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted*) 43. Unemployment rate (inverted4)3 45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv.1)3 •91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted1) 44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.1)9 U,C,C... A.r., bil. hrs... U.C.C.... Millions C,C,C... L,C,U... Thousands.... U,lg,U... Percent L,Lg,U.... L,Lg,U... L,Lg,U... Lg,Lg,Lg..., Lg,l&Lg.... ThousandsPercent Weeks Percent 0.002 - 0 . 0 0 3 - 0 . 0 1 3 - 0 . 0 1 9 -4.3 -4.3 0.7 1 6 8 . 1 5 176.87 178.47 180.17 181 , 2 3 181 .82 181.68 182.72 9 7 . 4 5 101.68 102.66 103.39 1 0 3 . 4 6 103.23 103.74 104.08 90 . 2 0 94.46 9 5 . 8 5 96.64 9 7 . 3 4 9 7 . 4 7 97.72 98.01 2 3 , 3 3 4 24,730 2 4 , 9 7 3 25,077 2 5 , 0 5 5 2 5 , 0 1 0 24,978 25,031 -0.1 0.5 0.3 -0.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 1.0 0. 0, 0. 0.6 0.1 0.7 -0.1 57.15 58.79 59.07 59.38 59.26 58.99 59.21 59.32 0.22 0.11 0.31 -0.12 10,717 9.6 3.8 20.0 3.8 8,539 7.5 2.8 18.2 2.4 8,233 7 .2 2.8 17.1 2.1 8,426 7.3 2.9 15.7 2.1 8,417 7.3 2.8 15.5 2.0 8,413 7.3 2.8 15.4 2.0 8,451 7.3 2.8 15.4 2.0 8,127 7.0 2.7 15.6 2.0 -0.5 0. 0. 0. 0. 3,8 0.3 0.1 -1.3 0. -2.3 -0.1 -0.1 8.2 0. 0.1 0. 0.1 1.3 0.1 B2. Production and Income Comprehensive Output and Income: 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars 52. Personal income in .1972 dollars •51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1972 dollars 53. Wages and salaries in 1972 dollars, mining, mfg., and construction C,C,C. Industrial Production: *47. Industrial production 73. Industrial production, durable mfrs 74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs 49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars C,C,C... 1977-100... C,C,C... do do C,L,L... CtC,C... A.r., bil.dol... Capacity Utilization: 82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg3 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials3 L,C,U., Percent L,C,U.... do.. C,C,C... A.r., bil.dol C,C,C..,. 1534.7 1284.6 1639.3 1662.4 1663 .5 1 6 7 1 . 3 1366.5 1389.5 1399.5 1 4 0 3 . 3 1 3 9 9 . 0 1403.9 1 4 0 4 . 9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 C,C,C... do 1095.0 1177.4 1200.2 1204.0 1 2 0 9 . 1 1 2 0 5 . 6 1207,0 1 2 1 0 . 4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 ...do.... 213.5 224.8 226.3 109.2 107.7 113.7 688.6 121.8 124.8 122.5 764.5 74.0 75.3 80.8 82.3 228.3 227.2 227.1 226.4 227.5 -0.3 0.5 0.9 -0.5 123.1 127.3 123.5 778.8 123.8 127.7 123.6 773.0 124.2 127.9 124.8 772.2 124.4 127.7 125.4 124.4 127.5 125.8 124.8 128.4 126 .1 0, -0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0,2 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.7 0.3 0.2 1.0 -0.1 81.1 81 .4 80.5 81.5 80.3 80.4 80.2 80.2 80.0 79.9 80 .2 79.8 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 0.1 -0.2 -1.1 8 7 . 7 4 100.56 100.75 102 .49 103.20 1 0 6 . 7 8 1 0 4 . 3 7 36.96 41.44 43.2 3 42.32 41.32 41.89 41.93 107.92 43 . 7 4 -2.3 -2 .1 3.4 3.4 1.7 1 .4 0.7 0.1 34.07 37,33 37.29 37.98 37.58 37.40 37.63 38.35 2.69 2.11 -1.63 4.12 0.55 0.72 1.89 2.87 3 2 0 . 1 2 345.44 345.44 347 .10 349.25 349.25 351 .14 3 5 4 . 0 1 54 61 47 49 44 44 44 42 0.6 -2.23 0.5 0 1.9 0.98 0.8 -2 1.9 2.18 0.5 -2 -1.1 0.17 0.6 -3 3 6 8 . 7 7 411 .30 417.83 418.93 4 2 4 . 3 8 418.38 422.24 NA 161 . 7 0 176.08 178.44 179.09 181 .11 178.98 180 .26 NA 109.3 118.2 119.3 119.2 120.1 120.7 120.4 121.3 9 7 . 8 6 108.08 109.92 111.64 114.66 113.73 113.91 116,10 ...do 47.75 51 .76 52.48 53.05 54.29 53.90 53.99 55.10 A.r., bil.dol 88.3 102.3 101 ,8 103.2 104.7 Q 1966=100. 87.5 97.5 95.0 94.5 94.3 96.5 94.0 92.4 0.9 0.7 -0.2 0.2 0.2 NA NA 0.7 1 .9 2.1 0.3 0.4 -0.1 1 .6 1 .1 1 .4 -0.5 1.3 1 .1 0.8 2.7 2.3 1 .5 -0.2 0.8 2.5 -1 .3 NA B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Orders and Deliveries: 6. Mfrs.' new orders, durable goods L,L,L. Bil. dol.. 7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1972 dollars, durable goods L,L,L... *8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods ...do and materials L,L,L ...do 25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods1 L.L.L.... 96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods' L(Lg,U..., Bil. dol., EOP . *32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries3 © L,L,L... Percent Consumption and Trade: 56. Manufacturing and trade sales •57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars 75. Industrial production, consumer goods 54. Sales of retail stores 59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles 58. Index of consumer sentiment ( u ) C,C,C... C,C,C.... C,L,C... C,L,U.... U,L,U.... L,C,C... L,L,L... Bil. dol ...do 1977*100 Bil. dol -2.6 -1.7 0.3 NA 0.8 NA R4. Fixed Capital Investment Formation of Business Enterprises: *12. Net business formation 13. New business incorporations Business Investment Commitments: 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment *20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars 24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods 27. Mfrs.' new orders in 1972 dollars, nondefense capital goods L,L,L... 1967=100... L,L,L... Number 114.8 117.1 116.8 117.7 50,162 52,960 53,193 5 4 , 5 2 1 L,L,L... Bil. dol L,L,L... L,L,L... L,L,L... do... do... ...... do... 116.2 118.0 119.0 NA 31.30 31.01 30.95 30.64 31 .89 13.40 22.73 15.43 26.95 14.98 26.33 15.75 26.78 14.83 26.34 15.56 27.98 11.72 13.64 13.07 14.07 13.12 14.01 15.36 26.68 31 .78 0.7 -1.0 15.36 27.20 -1.3 -4.6 0. 1.9 5.1 1.7 -5.8j -1.6 13.54 -5.7 2.5 7.7 -6.8 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data2 Series title and timing classification Unit of measure 1 Percent change Annual average June to July 1985 4th Q to 1st Q 1985 July to Aug. 1985 1st Q to 2dQ 1985 I 4th Q 1984 1st Q 1985 2dQ 1985 June 1985 July 1985 Aug. 1985 83.17 29.10 94.37 83.68 29.94 99.35 81.87 28.60 99.86 69.68 91 . 8 9 91.41 401 .67 4 0 3 . 0 0 141.5 140.6 220 .3 398.40 140.4 NA 140.7 -1.1 -0.1 NA 0.2 1,701 136.5 1,647 135.1 1,749 142.3 -3.2 - 1 .0 6.2 5.3 2.3 -10.8 30 NA NA -3.20 -10.5 -6.37 -17 .7 36 31 1983 1984 63.56 22.00 73.50 7 8.07 29.36 94.37 C,Lg,Lg,.,. A.r., bil. dol 304.78 353.54 368.29 3 71 . 1 6 387.83 C,Lg,Lg.... do C,Lg,U.... 1977 = 100 C Lc C Ar bil dol 320.64 375.00 115.4 134.9 171 .0 204.9 396.32 139.1 213.8 391.54 140.2 2l3.0 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con. B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Con. Business Investment Commitments—Con.: 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space L,C,U Mil. sq.ft 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg U,Lg,U.... Bil. dol 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.1 C,Lg,Lg... Bil dol EOP Business Investment Expenditures: 61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment 69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 76. Industrial production, business equipment 86 Nonresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars Residential Construction Commitments and Investment: 28. New private housing units started *29. Building permits, new private housing units 89. Residential fixed investment in 1972 dollar^ L,L,L... A.r., thousands.. L,L,L... 1967 = 100 L,L,L... A.r., bil.dol 1,703 131.1 53.7 1,747 13 4 . 6 60.2 1,598 124.7 59.2 1,795 132.9 60.0 1,772 138.1 60.9 31.9 -0.5 ' 0.6 2.9 5 3 -2.2 -4.5 0 5 9 11 97 0.8 4.5 61 -1.2 0.8 -0 .4 2 .6 0.9 3 .4 69 76 86 12.3 6.6 1 .4 -1.3 3.9 1.5 28 29 89 B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment Inventory Investment: 30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars3 *36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars (smoothed6)3 31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories, book value3 38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order book value3 . Inventories on Hand and on Order: 71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value5 70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1972 dollars5 65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value5 •77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1972 dollars3 78. Mfrs/ inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order, book value4 L,L,L... do -3.6 24.8 16.8 19.1 8.3 L,L,L... L,L,L.,. do do 1.98 11.1 21 . 2 9 53.2 11 . 4 0 31 . 8 8.20 21.3 1.83 3.6 -3.68 22.6 -2.18 1.0 NA NA 1.50 -21.6 1 .45 0.71 - 1 .68 -0.97 -0.27 1 .68 -0.46 NA -2.14 NA 0.71 0 .70 38 Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 520.28 573.43 573.43 578.77 579.66 579.66 579.75 2 5 9 . 0 2 278.97 278.97 2 8 2 . 7 2 283.48 283.48 283 .88 do Lg,Lg,Lg,... do 80.96 89.69 90.12 89.87 89.87 Lg,Lg,Lg.... 89.69 89.26 NA NA NA 0. 0.1 -0.7 NA NA NA 0.9 1 .3 0.5 0.2 0.3 -0.3 71 70 65 1.57 NA -0.01 NA 0.01 -0.01 77 Ug,l_g.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 208.73 217.30 217.30 214.40 2 1 3 . 6 1 2 1 3 . 6 1 213.15 NA -0.2 NA -1.3 -0.4 78 -0.52 239.8 -0.52 -0.17 -0.9 -0.22 -0.45 -0.4 -0.17 -0.90 -4.4 -0.29 1 .28 -1.2 0.44 98 23 99 -2.2 7.3 . 4.2 19 • L L,L Bil, dol 1.59 Lg,Lg,Lg.... Ratio 1.54 1.56 1.57 1.56 1.58 B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits Sensitive Commodity Prices; 98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials' 23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials© *99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)3 L,L,L... Percent U,L,L... 1967 = 100 L,L,L... Percent Stock Prices: *19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks © L,L,L... 1941-43=10... 160.41 160.46 Profits and Profit Margins: 16. Corporate profits after tax 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1972 dollars 79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj on ftn j n 1070 rinllarc 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg.3 • 26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business 1.24 258.5 1.03 -0.37 278.9 -0.19 -0.12 265.5 -0.48 - 1 .02 253.8 -0.77 f n r n n r a t p npt rash flow IS Cnrnnratp net rash flnw in 1972 dollars 0.10 242.9 -0.13 -0.07 2 40.7 -0.35 165.19 177.30 184.80 188.89 192.54 188.36 1 .9 L,L,L..., A.r, bil. dol do L,L,L... do L,C,L... 1 C1 do L,L,L... Cents L,LfL 1977=100 127.4 60.5 149.4 71 .2 4.0 98.0 145.9 68.0 195.9 92 .0 4.6 99.6 141 .0 65.0 203.9 95.0 4.3 100.1 137.0 62.4 207.0 95.4 4.2 99.4 137.4 62.3 214.9 98.8 3.7 99.5 -2.8 -4.0 1.5 0.4 -0.1 -0.7 0.3 -0.2 3.8 3.6 -0.5 0.1 16 18 79 80 15 26 Ar bil dol 318.9 1 49 .3 367.3 16 9 2 375.3 17 1 3 378.9 17 1 8 388.4 175.3 1.0 0 .3 2.5 2 .0 34 35 156.0 157.6 158.4 161.9 162.7 2.2 0.5 63 1.409 1.425 1 .438 1.462 1.473 1.7 0.8 68 215.9 95.1 212.4 88.3 213.6 86.9 216.2 86.7 215.4 85.2 1.2 -0.2 -0.4 -1.5 62 62 75 0 73 4 73.4 73.9 74.2 0.5 0.3 64 0.78 0.95 0 .87 214.0 886 .2 0.47 0.67 0 .93 219.5 917 . 2 0.42 0.90 0.83 220.0 932 . 3 0.80 0.80 0.77 224.0 952 .6 1 .10 0.59 NA 227.3 955.3 1 .65 1.15 HA 230.2 962 .8 0.78 0.71 NA 231.6 967 .8 1 .71 0.93 NA 235.1 975.0 0.38 -0.10 -0.06 1.8 2.2 0.30 -0.21 NA 1.5 0.3 85 102 104 105 106 6.482 1 .300 6.720 1.322 6.791 1 .320 6.708 1.301 6.614 1.297 1 .284 1.281 1.273 -0.083 -0.094 -0.019 -0.004 107 108 L^L... A.r.. bil. dol 77.05 37.55 1 0 0 . 3 8 62.96 77.29 77.85 L>L,L.... do 30 .85 -2.25 -53.76 3 .28 53 . 6 7 39.52 do L,L,L... 62.72 90.15 76.36 74.12 98.42 47.73 L.L.L.... A.r., percent 3.6 8.8 15.2 9.9 12.1 5.7 L,L L A.r., bil.dol... . 403 50 482 67 5 85 73 43 5 8 9 43 8 3 5 63.55 24.58 74.96 8.8 NA - 1 3 . 5 0 NA -2.00 78.34 - 2 6 . 5 8 NA NA 1 2 . 2 4 -1.2 5 ,2 7.6 0.56 14.33 -8.67 -33.10 24.30 -8.27 -3,3 2.2 0.6 -25 .6 33 112 113 111 110 Cash Flows: Id 0.26 250.7 -0.33 I L L LL L do Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share: 63. Unit labor cost, business sector Lg,Lg,Lg.,.. 1977 = 100 68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfinancial corporations Lg,Lg,Lg.... Dollars 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. a) Actual data Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1967=100 •b) Actual data as percent of trend3 Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent 64. Compensation of employees as percent of do 215.7 84.9 215.4 84.4 215.9 84.2 -0.1 -0.5 0.2 -0.2 B7. Money and Credit Money: 85. Change in money supply M l 1 102 Chanee in monev SUDOIV M23 104 Change in total liquid assets3 105. Money supply Ml in 1972 dollars *106 Monev SUDDIV M2 in 1972 dollars Velocity of Money: If)7 Ratin GNP to monev SUDDIV M l 3 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23 Credit 33. 112 113. •111. 110 Flows: Net change in mortgage debt3 Net change in business loans3 Net change in consumer installment credit3 Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3 Funds raised by private nonfjnancial borrowers. Credit Difficulties: 39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted*)3 5 do L.L.L do LC U do L,L,L... L,L,L... Bil.dol do LL L CC C C,Lg,C... Ratio do L.L.L.... Percent, EOP... 1.94 2.09 2.09 2.40 2.33 2.33 NA NA -0.87 -0.44 NA 0.6 0.5 0.93 0.22 NA 1.5 0.7 -0.003 -0.008 NA NA -0.31 0.07 39 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data' Unit of measure Series title and timing classification1 Percent change Annual average 4th Q 1984 1983 lstQ 1985 2dQ 1985 June 1985 July Aug. 1985 to July 1985 July to Aug. 1985 4th Q to 1st Q 1985 1st Q 2dQ 1985 I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con. 87. Money and Credit-Con, Bank Reserves: 93. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 3 © 94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve 3 © Interest Rates: 119, Federal funds r a t e 3 © 114. Discount rate on new Treasury bills 3 © 116. Yield on new highgrada corporate bonds3 © 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 © 117. Yield on municipal bonds3 © 118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages 1 © 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans 3 © *109, Average prime rate charged by banks3 © Outstanding Debt: 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding5 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding *101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972 dollars *95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income3....: - 5 4 5 -3,046 -3,885 4,607 1 , 0 3 4 3,730 -621 1,426 -All 1,287 -300 1,205 -252 1,107 -238 1,073 -48 -98 10.22 9.57 13.37 11 .99 10.10 13.82 12.02 12.04 8.48 8.18 12.57 11 .43 9.64 13.24 10.10 10.54 7.92 7.52 11 .88 10.91 9.04 12.38 9.90 10.20 7.53 7.01 11.33 10.36 8.69 11.89 7.88 7.05 11 .28 10.51 8.81 12.12 7.90 7.18 11.61 10.59 9.08 11.99 0.35 0.04 -0.05 0.15 0.12 0.23 0.02 0.13 0.33 0.08 0.27 -0.13 9.78 9.50 9.50 -0.28 0. Lg,Lg,Lg.... I. dol., EOP . 376,01 4 5 2 . 3 7 452,37 476.98 499.52 499.52 505.76 NA 264.66 2 9 9 . 7 3 319.59 326.98 330.89 328.80 330.85 330.68 Lg,Lg,Lg..., Bil. dol 1 .2 0.6 NA -0.1 L,U,U... Mil. dot do L,Lg,U.... L.Lg.Lg.... Percent C.Lg.Lg.... do.. Lg,Lg,lg.... do.. C,Lg,Lg.... do.. U,Lg,Lg,... do.. lg,Lg,Lg,.., do.. Lg,Lg,Lg.... do... Lg,Lg,Lg.... do... Lg.Lg.Lg.... Lg,Lg,Lg.. do 9.09 8.62 12.25 10.84 9.51 13.11 10.64 10.79 9.27 8.97 12.63 11 .37 10.12 13.11 11.29 11.80 104.02 115.04 122.86 126 .00 127.36 126.71 127.54 128.22 -3,264 - 3 4 -3,181 -0.79 -0.7 9 -0.06 0.06 -0.48 0.13 -1.19 -1 .26 -149 -139 -0.56 -0.66 -0.69 -0.52 -0.60 -0.86 -0.20 -0,34 5.4 2.3 0.7 0.5 2.6 15.73 15.86 NA 0.13 NA 0.50 0.63 324.6 305.3 319.3 300.1 292.0 322.3 0.2 308, 309 324.7 303.3 318.8 300.9 291.4 322.8 0.2 308.8 309.0 324.3 301 317.8 300.9 292.6 323.5 0.2 308.9 307.2 323.6 294.4 317.3 301.6 291 .3 0 0 0.1 0. -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 0 0.4 0 0 0 -0.6 -0.2 -2.4 -0.2 0.2 -0.4 1 0.6 0 0.8 -0 -0.3 -3.4 -0.4 0.9 -0.1 0.7 1.2 0 -0 0 0.7 -3.4 0 0.7 0.5 163.8 165.1 165.6 165.5 165.5 -0.1 0. 0.9 94.6 172.5 98.5 106.9 106.0 94.4 173.8 98.3 107.3 106.3 94.5 94.3 94.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 1 .2 0.4 -1.0 -0.8 -0.2 0 -0.2 0.4 0.3 111.55 113.54 1 1 4 . 1 8 115.16 115.18 114.78 115.31 115.30 100.83 105.00 1 0 5 . 9 5 1 0 6 . 7 3 106.76 106.37 106.86 107.17 10,717 8,539 8 , 2 3 3 8 , 4 2 6 8,417 8,413 8,451 8,127 3,738 3,768 3,7 83 3,891 3,767 3,600 5,257 3,932 3,051 3,155 3,192 3,148 3,125 3,192 3,632 3,107 1,444 1,503 1,442 1,559 1,335 1,374 1,829 1,499 6,837 6,913 6,797 6,741 6,964 6,644 9,075 7,057 0.5 0.5 0.5 -3.2 -0.7 13.5 3.3 0 0.3 -3 -4.4 2.1 -14.4 -4.6 0.9 0.7 2.3 0 3 .4 4.1 1 .1 0 0 -0.1 0 1.2 -4.1 -1.7 0. -0.1 3.5 0. 0.1 -1.8 Percent 12.73 13.85 14.40 14.90 15.53 1972 = 100... 1967=100... Percent 1967=100... do ..do... ...do do ....do 215.3 298.4 0.3 291 303.1 315.7 323.6 312.3 287.2 284.6 223.4 311.1 0.3 302 310.3 322.6 331 320.0 294.1 290.4 226.1 315.4 0.3 306.2 309.8 323.4 327 .4 320 295.3 290.7 229 317.4 0.3 308 309 322 316.2 319.3 298 290.5 230.6 321 .2 0.3 308 309 1977 = 100.... 155.3 162.8 162.4 do do 94.9 161 ,6 98 103.7 103.4 94.8 168.2 98.1 107.0 106.2 94.5 170.5 98.1 108.0 106.9 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES 8. Prices, Wages, and Productivity 8 1 . Price Movements 310. 320. 320c. 322. 330. 335. 331. 332. 333. 334. Implicit price deflator for gross national product Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) © Change in CPI-U (S/A) 3 Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food Producer price index (PPI), all commodities © PPI, industrial commodities© PPI, crude materials for further processing PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components PPI, capital equipment PPI, finished consumer goods ....do B2. Wages and Productivity 340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls 341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls 345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector 346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector ... 370. Output per hour, business sector 358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector do ...do... C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 441. 442. 37. 444. 445. 446. 447. Civilian labor force Civilian employment Number of persons unemployed Number unemployed, males 20 years and over Number unemployed, females 20 years and over Number unemployed, both sexes 16=19 years of age Number unemployed, full-time workers Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates: 451. Males 20 years and over3 452. Females 20 years and over3 453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age3 Millions... ..do.. Thousands.., ...do ...do do ...do Percent.. ..do... ...do. 78.5 53.1 53.5 78.3 53.7 53.9 78,3 53.9 53.8 78.2 54.6 55.6 78.1 54.6 54.3 77.9 54.6 51 .8 77.9 54.5 55.3 77,9 54.6 53.5 -0.1 0.7 1.8 -0.1 0. -1.3 32 6 1.8 -1.9 1 .1 1.6 -49.0 -4.9 1.2 -3 2.3 3.2 O. Government Activities D l . Receipts and Expenditures 500. 501. 502. 510. 511. 512. Federal Government surplus or deficit3 Federal Government receipts Federal Government expenditures State and local government surplus or deficit3. State and local government receipts . . ., State and local government expenditures.. . A.r., bil. do!... .do. . ..do.. . ..do.... ..do.... ....do. .. -178.6 -175.8 641 . 1 704.7 819.7 880.5 44.1 52.9 478.2 523.6 43 4 . 1 470.7 •197.8 -165.1 -214.1 721.9 771 .4 733 .9 919.7 936.5 948.0 55.6 50.3 53.7 539.7 545.6 558.0 484.0 491 .9 507.7 D2. Defense Indicators 517. 525. 548. 557. 570. 564. Defense Department gross obligations incurred Defense Department prime contract awards Nlfrs.' new orders, defense products Industrial production, defense and space equipment.. Employment, defense products industries Federal Government purchases for national defense .. Mil. dol ...do.. ...do 1977«100.... Thousands .r., bil. dol.... 20,635 22,437 25,466 21,072 25,769 29,513 31,641 NA 10,787 12,942 15,157 12,099 11,458 11,052 11 ,761 NA 6,773 7,452 7,569 7,336 8,714 1 1 , 2 3 8 9,594 10,795 143.1 157.9 164.0 167.2 171 .4 172.8 173.5 175.0 1,359 1,444 1,550 1 ,488 1,522 1,561 1,566 NA 200.5 221.5 231 .6 233 .9 241 .1 7.2 6.4 -14.6 0.4 0.3 NA 12.5 0.9 NA -17.3 -20.2 -3.1 2.0 2 .3 1.0 22.3 -5.3 18.8 2.5 1 .8 3.1 Mil. dol... 16,722 1 8 , 1 3 7 18,649 1 8 , 5 6 7 17,544 17,43 8 17,412 3,011 3,146 2,294 2,167 3,118 2,741 2,158 3,536 3 , 8 7 5 4,013 4 , 1 2 6 3,998 3,952 3,615 21,513 2 7 , 1 3 2 26,6 82 28,137 28,802 29,425 26,630 4,3 40 4 , 6 8 9 4,314 3,750 5,005 4,842 3,342 2,937 3 , 7 8 7 3,716 4,425 4,452 4,932 4,161 -0.1 -0.4 -8.5 -9.5 -31.0 -15.6 NA NA NA NA NA NA -0,4 -12.1 2.8 5.5 -13.1 19.1 -5.5 -16.3 -3.1 2.4 33 0.6 E. U.S. International Transactions El. Merchandise Trade 602. 604. 606. 612. 614. 616. Exports, excluding military aid shipments Exports of domestic agricultural products Exports of nonelectrical machinery General imports Imports of petroleum and petroleum products Imports of automobiles and parts ...do... ...do... NA NA NA NA NA NA Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data2 Series title Unit of measure Percent change Annual average 1982 1983 1984 lstQ 1984 2dQ 1984 3dQ 1984 4th Q 1984 3d Q 1st Q 1985 2dQ 1985 4th Q 1984 4th Q to 1st Q 1985 1st Q to 2dQ 1985 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con. E2. Goods and Services Movements Except Transfers Under Military Grants 667. 668. 669. .622. 618. 620. 651. 652. Balance on goods and services3 Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Balance on merchandise trade3 Merchandise exports, adjusted Merchandise imports, adjusted Income on U.S. investment abroad Income on foreign investment in the United States. Bil. do).. ...do.., ...do... ...do.. ...do... ...do,., 0.02 - 7 . 9 8 - 2 2 . 5 3 - 1 6 . 8 5 -22.26 -29.62 -21.38 -27. 87.51 83.40 9 0 , 6 0 90.76 89.00 91 .12 91 .54 88, 87.49 91.38 113.14 107.62 111.26 120.75 112.92 116 , - 9 . 1 1 -15.50 -27 .07 - 2 5 . 5 7 -25.65 -32.51 -24.56 -29. 52.80 50.19 55.08 53.75 54.68 55.53 56 .36 55, 61.91 65.69 82,15 7 9 . 3 2 80 .33 88.04 80.91 85, 21.19 19.51 21.90 2 3 . 5 0 20.90 21.77 21 .44 18. 13.82 13.16 17.12 15.27 17.28 18.51 17 .44 16 -28.46 117.30 -33.00 53.24 86.25 22.10 16.52 8.24 0.5 -6.5 7.95 1.5 -8.1 -1.5 -5. -5.77 -2. 2.8 -4.97 -1 .2 5.4 -12.0 -6.4 -1.31 -0.1 1.0 -3.47 -4.4 1 .2 17.1 1 .2 3853.1 1671.3 7,008 1663.0 2726.5 1205.3 5,054 1.7 1.0 0.8 1 .9 1.5 0.9 0.6 1 .4 0.1 -0 -0 0.4 -0.4 1 .1 0.5 0.3 1 .1 2.7 2.0 1 .8 2332.7 2361,4 2396.5 2446.5 2493.0 1064.2 1065.9 1075.4 1089.1 1102.1 320.7 317.2 3 2 6 . 3 3 3 4 . 8 339.2 178.6 177.0 1 8 2 . 9 187.0 190.1 858.3 861 ,4 8 6 6 . 5 877,3 891 .9 396.6 395.5 3 9 5 . 0 398.6 40 3.2 1153.7 1182.8 1203.8 1234.4 1261 .9 488.9 493,5 497.5 503.5 5 0 8 . 7 1.5 0.9 2.9 3.3 0.6 -0.1 1 .8 0.8 2.1 1.3 2.6 2 .2 1.2 0.9 2.5 1 .2 1 .9 1 .2 1.3 1 .7 1.7 1 .2 2.2 1 .0 88.85 A. national income ana rroaucc Al. GNP and Personal Income 200. 50. 217. 213. 224. 225. 227. Gross national product Gross national product in 1972 dollars , Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars Final sales in 1972 dollars Disposable personal income Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars 3662.8 3553.3 3644.7 1639.3 1610.9 1638.8 6,543 6,926 6,829 6,933 153 8.3 1614.5 1579.3 1618.5 2340.1 2576.8 2502.2 2554.3 1095.4 1169.0 1147.6 1165.3 4,670 4 , 9 3 9 4,865 4 , 9 3 0 ...do A.r., dollars.. 3069.3 1480.0 6,370 1490.4 2180.5 1058.3 4,555 A.r., bil. dol.. ...do .do .do.. . ...do.. do.. . do... do.... 1984.9 2155.9 2341.8 2276.5 963.3 1009.2 1062.4 1044.1 245.1 279.8 318.8 310-.9 140.5 157.5 178.0 173.7 757.5 801 .7 8 5 6 . 9 841.3 363.1 376.3 3 9 3 . 5 387.1 982.2 1074.4 1166.1 1124.4 459.8 475.4 490.8 483 .4 ...do A.r.F dollars ... A.r., bil.dol.. 3304.8 1534.7 3694.6 1645.2 6,943 1614.6 2606.4 1176.5 4,965 3758.7 1662.4 6,998 1645.6 2644.5 1186.7 4,996 3810.6 1663.5 6,989 1644.4 2654.8 1181 .9 4,965 A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures 230. 231. 232. 233. 236. 238. 237. 239. Total Total in 1972 dollars Durable goods Durable goods in 1972 dollars Nondurable goods. Nondurable goods in 1972 dollars. Services Services in 1972 dollars. . , 240. 241. 242. 243. 245. 30. Total Total in 1972 dollars Fixed investment, .. Fixed investment in 1972 dollars. Change in business inventories3 . .. . Change in.business inventories in 1972 dollars3 A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment .do. ,do. .do. do .do. .do. 414.9 194.3 441 .0 204 -26 -10.4 471.6 221.0 485.1 224.6 -13.5 -3.6 637.8 289.9 579.6 265.1 58.2 ...do.. .do... ..do.. ..do... ..do. ..do.. 650.5 292.7 258.9 117.0 391 .5 175.7 ...do... ...do.., ...do... ...do... ...do.. ...do.., 19.0 2 9.7 348.4 147.6 329 118.0 627.0 283.9 576 .4 24.8 623,8 285.5 550.0 253.9 73.8 31.6 685.5 291 .9 269.7 116.2 415.8 175.7 747 .4 302.1 295.4 122.5 452.0 179.6 -8.3 12.6 336.2 139.5 344.4 126 .9 -64.2 -15.0 364.3 146.0 428.5 161 .1 637.8 646.8 643.2 50.6 20.3 662.8 300.2 591.0 269.6 71.8 30.6 289.9 601 .1 273.1 36.6 16.8 292.1 606.1 273.0 40.7 19.1 289.5 625.3 281 .2 17.9 8.3 -3 -3,4 1.7 1.3 -35.2 -13.8 1.4 0 0 0 4.1 2.3 -0.6 -0.9 3.2 3.0 -22.8 -10.8 704.4 289.5 267.6 112.2 436 .8 177.3 743.7 302.1 296 .4 123.2 447.4 178.9 761 .0 306.1 302.0 125.0 458.9 181 .1 7 80.5 310.5 315.7 129.6 46 4.8 180.9 791 .9 310.7 319.9 129.8 472.0 180.9 810 .9 313.5 324.2 129.7 486.7 183.9 2.6 1 4.5 3.7 1.3 -0.1 1 .5 0.1 1.3 0.2 1 .5 0. 2 .4 0.9 1 .3 -0.1 3.1 1 .7 -51.5 -8.3 358.9 144.9 410.4 153.2 -58.7 -11.4 362.4 144.7 421 .1 156 .2 -90 .6 -27.0 368.6 147.4 459.3 174.4 -56.0 - 7 4 . 5 -13.4 - 2 8 . 4 367.2 360.7 147 .1 143.7 423 .2 435.2 160.5 172.1 -94.0 -33.8 347.7 137.9 441 .6 171 .8 34.6 13.6 -0.4 -0.2 -7 -8.0 -18 -15.0 -1 -2 2 7 .2 -19 -5.4 -3.6 -4.0 1 .5 -0.2 1 .3 2.0 0.4 1 .1 0.2 -2.2 1.0 1 .5 0.6 2.9 2.1 -4.3 -1 .0 1 .6 -27 .2 30.8 -1.7 -3.3 2.5 17 .5 -52.4 0.6 263.7 A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services 260. 261. 262. 263. 266. 267. Total Total in 1972 dollars Federal Government Federal Government in 1972 dollars State and local government State and local government in 1972 dollars., A5. Foreign Trade 250. 255. 252. 256. 253. 257. Net exports of goods and services3 Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars3.. Exports of goods and services Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars Imports of goods and services Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars 220. 280. 282. 284. 286. 288. National income Compensation of employees Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj. Net interest 290. 295. 292. 298. 293. Gross saving Business saying. Personal saving Government surplus or deficit3 . Personal saving rate3. . . . A6. National Income and Its Components ...do... ...do... ..do.. ..do.. ...do... ..do.. 2 446.8 2646 .7 2959.9 2873.5 2944.8 2984.9 3036 .3 3076 .5 3106.5 1864.2 1984.9 2173.2 2113.4 2159.2 2191.9 2228.1 2272.7 2305.9 111.1 121.7 154.4 154.9 149.8 153.7 159.1 159.8 160.7 66.7 61.0 62.0 63.0 64.8 51.5 62.5 64.1 58.3 159.1 2 2 5 . 2 285.7 277 .4 291 .1 282.8 291 .6 2 9 2 . 3 298.5 260.9 2 5 6 . 6 2 84.1 266,8 282.8 293 .5 293.4 287 .0 274.7 do.. do.. ... .do.. ..do.. Percent. 408.8 43 7 . 2 543.9 551.0 556.4 556.0 550.7 532.6 551.8 498.8 515.3 525.3 535.2 543.5 557.0 388.0 4 5 3 . 6 518.6 136.0 118.1 1 5 6 . 1 152.5 144.8 164.1 163 .0 118.6 139.4 -115.3 -134.5 - 1 2 2 . 9 •107 .4 -109.2 -133.0 -142 .2 -111.4 -163.8 6.2 6.1 5.7 6.3 6.1 4.5 5.1 6.2 5.0 1 .7 1 .7 3.5 1 .7 3.1 0. A7. Saving NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A, seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment, 1 The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U, unclassified. -0.1 1,9 -0.7 -9.2 -0.1 ? For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available. 3 Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series. 'Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed. 5 End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period. 5 This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of the span. CYCLICAL INDICATORS A COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Chart A l . Composite Indexes Nov. Oct. P T July May P T Aug. Apr. P T Nov. Mar. P T Apr. Feb. P T Jan. July July Nov. P T P T 1, 5,! 8,12,19,20,29,32<36,99,Pj;lll) (seriesSU7,51,57) 93§ Jndex of six lagging indicators .VI (series 62, 77,91,95,101,107} A ksi\/G 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985 NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) In months from reference turning dates. Current data for these series are shown on page 60. 10 SEPTEMBER 1985 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued Aug. Apr. P T Jan. July July Nov. P T P I Apr. Feb. P T Index: 1367 «*l'00i Capital investment commitments (series 12,20,29) 915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8, !. ,. . ' ' - 8 916. Profitability (series 19,26, SO) — ^ r r - Money and financial flows (series 104 940, Ratio, coincident index to lagging index 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 81 82 83 841985 NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates. Current data for these series are shown on page 60. BCI> SEPTEMBER 1985 11 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A2. Leading Index Components Nov. Oct. P T July May P T Aug. Apr, P T Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T Nov. Mar. Jan. July July Nov. P T F T P T 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (tyurs) Average weeklv initial claims for unemployment insurance (thousands—inverted scale) [T7~[ in 1972 dollars, consumer goods Net business formation (index: 1 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 ) Contracts and orders for plant 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985 Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 , 64, 65, and 66. 12 SEPTEMBER 1985 KCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS A L COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued I Chart A2, Leading Index Components—Continued July May P T Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T Nov. Mar. P T Jan. July July Nov. P T P T 29, New private housing units authorized by local building permits (index: 1967 = 100) 36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1972! dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bil. dol.) ..., ,/U I 99. Change m sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent) 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 11941-43=10) 106, Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (bit. dot.) Lit 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (ann. rate, percent) [TJX 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985 'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 7 1 , and 72. ItCII SEPTEMBER 1985 13 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A3. Coincident Index Components Jan.July July P T P Nov. T 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolis cici 47. industrial production (index; 19 1948 49 50 SI 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985 Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65. 14 SEPTEMBER 1985 Bill CYCLICAL INDICATORS IA COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A4. Lagging Index Components Nov. Oct. P T July May P T Aug. Apr. P T Dec. Nov. P T Apr. Feb. P T 91. Av rage duration of unemptoyment (weeks—inverted scale) si Jan. July July Nov. P T P T Nov. Mar. P T T* 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade in 72 dollars (ratio) i i P i i i P 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing as percent of trend (percent) hg.Lg.Lg . Average prime rate charged Commercia and industrial loans outstanding (bil. dol.) 95. Ratio, consumer j ' JiMA > ' :1s iUVfUUU ' < JTi^ fLilTJlil 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985 Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73. ItCII SEPTEMBER 1985 15 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment Dec. P Nov. I Nov. P Mar. T Jan. July P T July P 80 81 Nov T iMargihal Employment Adjustments! 1. Average weekly hours of production orrtonsupervfeoryworkers, manufacturing (hours) [TTT 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours) h,c,L| 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (thousands—inverted scale) 46, Help-wanted advertising in newspapers; Iflndeic 1967=100) Wg,U \ 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 J 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for thes^ series are shown on page 6 1 . 16 SEPTEMBER 1985 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Jan. July July Nov. P. T P T Dec. Nov. P T 1051 100- 9590- 42. Persons engaged in nonagrtcultural activities z 85- 80- 75- 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (mlions) \cccA 70- 65- 28- 40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goods-producing , industries (mifof&) ;; 2726- \ y ML W\/l s 25242322- \ZL 21- AJ^\ 20- 60- ,; m 90. Ratio, civilian 5958- nug,ui 57565554- 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 and 62. I SEPTEMBER 1985 17 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Jan July Dec. Nov. P T July P I P Nov. T 44. Unemployment rate, persons 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 62. 18 SEPTEMBER 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B2. Production and Income Nov. Mar. P T till to [(fcfofcehensive Output and tacome 50. Gross national product j j l j z dollars, Q(ann,j PW1972 dollars, minta^ 53. Wages and and constr 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 63. K C I I SEPTEMBER 1985 19 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Jan. July July «ov. T P T 80 81 P I Industrial Production! Industrial production ion, durable Industrial production Industrial production, nondurable manufactures /' J liATti 1AA> 49. Value of goods output in (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1 Capacity Utilization | 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (percent) 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (percent) 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64. 20 SEPTEMBER 1985 BCD CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued C h a r t B3. C o n s u m p t i o n , Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Apr. Feb. P T Jan. July P July Nov. T P T 80 81 8.; Manufattfers' new brdeiilri 1972 doHars^ artel material* ifid||Mp (bii. dol;) ^ 25. Change in manufacturers'unfilled orders, durabi»-gowts industries (bit dffi 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reiiiiii* slovyef delNries tpieliiijit): H m 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 64. ltd) SEPTEMBER 1985 21 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued Jan. July P T July P 80 81 Nov. T motion and Trade 56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (bildl)! ff * iurmg and trade sales rinlbrc (Wt\ rtnl \ 75. Industrial production, consumer (index: 197j7*100) of retail stores in m m dollars (bit dot) C*|QC nt rafeil tinra* fa 1079 ftoltar* ( 55. Personal consumption expenditures, tes, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) J 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 65. 22 SEPTEMBER 1985 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment Apr. Feb. P T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T I Formation of Business Enterprises 12. Net business sfotroatkm (index: 1967&* 100) 1 1 1 1 business incorporations (thousands fcrbb Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current dollars (bi!. doj.) I Busihess Investment Commitments | 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars ( f c I 24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondt capital goods industries (bil. do!.) L 27, M a r ^ d l f r e r s ' new orders in 197? d o l l ^ nonde fptyds industries (bil. dol.)j n - j j j | 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and i 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66. BCII SEPTEMBER 1985 23 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued Jan. July July Nov, P T P T ""•, " T " ~ T ; Apr. Feb. P T [Business Investment Oommitmenls-~CQn. 97. Backlog of capital appropri I corporations, Q (bil. dot.) 1,000 manufacturing 11. Newly approved capital appropnauons, 1,000 Q .(bil. dot.) manufacturing 61. Expenditures for rtew plant and equi nonfarm businefclj (arm. rate, bil. I [ B u i p s s Investment Expenditure^! . Machinery and equipment sates aod business 76, Industrial produc (indeic: 1 9 7 7 = 1 C.LeiU 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 business equipment 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67. 24 SEPTEMBER 1985 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Nov. P Dec. Nov. P T Mar. T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T [Business Investment Expenditures—Con,| SO- 80- 40- [Residential Construction Commitments and Investment [j 281 New private housing units started (ann. rate, millions) EiEi 29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits i| (index: l$67M-X00) i .. « \TT\ 89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1972J dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil, dot.) wi / 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 71 2 \ ^ 71 / \ / 72 73 74 75 76 80 T 7060- 77 78 79 80 '_n_Ln/m 81 82 4030- 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 67. SEPTEMBER 1985 25 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment Apr, Feb. P T Nov. P Dec. Nov. P T 'I r Y I Inventory Investment] Jan. July P T Mar. T July Nov. P . T 30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) lull 36. Change in manufacturing and trade inve in 1972 dollars (ann. rate, bitJ del.; nan Change in manufacturing and trade inventories ann. rate, bil. dol. MCDmovin^vgJpPerm) 38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materfete and supplies on hand and on order, book value (bil. dol.; LLL f 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 • iHii. 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on page 68. 26 SEPTEMBER 1985 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued Jan. July P T July P Nov. T nvtiorie^on Hand gnct on; Order 71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1 bookw!ti|(|.do|| J| Mahpcturmg aniiad^ invefitoifes in 1972 dfars (t$; flit • \ ' 65. Manufacturers' nyentofies, finished goods book valtie (bil. 77, Ratio; manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1972 dollars u1.7- J ^ ^ 1.61.51.4- ILL 78. Manufactured' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order, book value (bil. dol.) _ 280-1 260240220200180160140120100- 80- 60- 401959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 68. IICII SEPTEMBER 1985 27 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits Apr. Feb. P T Nov. P Dec. Nov. P T to. T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 80 81 82 98. Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and intermediate materials (percent; MCD moving; avg.—6:term) I Sensitive Commodity Prices | fa ices (percent; moving Change in sensitive materials prices Spot market prices, raw industrial materials (index; 196/ = 1UU) Stock prices. 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43-10) ' 1 Profits and Profit Margins] 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. 16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars, Q (ana rate, bil. dol.)i 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 83 84 85 1986 'This is a weighted 4-term moving average {with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Current data for these series are shown on page 69. ' 28 SEPTEMBER 1985 KCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Nov. P Dec. Nov. P T Mar. T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T jProfits and Profit Margins—Con. | IE 200160 * 120- 79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in currerit dollairsT;l(ann,;Me, bil. d b | | ^ 1 80- 40 J Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj 1^72 dollarjs, Q (irwyate, biL doL) r^n :[ | .... - 22 iftatio,leotj^rate domestic domestic income, u (percent* A>v ! tax to corporate \ ^ 31 AJ, y- I rrrn Mi: 81. Ratio, corporate domestic pipts ap a p r tax witn ivft ana "w CCAdj to corporate domestic income, Q Q (percent)) A 12- 10- n \ V\ A I t, L 15. Profits after taxes per dojlar of sales, manufacturing co^Hyations, Q (cents) 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit la business sector. 6 (index: 1977 34. Corporate (ann, p e , t^t net cash flow in 1972 dollars, Q |ate,|M) 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 89 1936 Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70. KCII SEPTEMBER 1985 29 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued Apr. Feb. Dec. Nov. Nov. Mar. P T P T P T July Nov. T P T 80 81 Jan. July P I Unit jLabor Costs and Labor Share 1 63. Unit labor cost, business sector, Q (index: 1977=100) g T ^ jr. : 68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product in 1972 dollars, rtonfinancial corporations, Q (dollar) 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967^100) /s^s' |Lg,Lg,Lgl 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income, Q (percent) [U17i7\ — 1 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 70. 30 SEPTEMBER 1985 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit Apr. Feb. P T Jan. July P T Dec. Nov. P T July P Nov. T 85. Change in money supply Ml (percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term) \mm ..ILk.mirm\ .u*f\w&m<M 102. Change in money Supply M2 (percent; MCb moving avg.—6-term 104. Change in total liquid assets (percent; MCD mo j j JOS; Money supply M i l W d o l l a r s (bit. dol.) 107. Ratio, gross rational producttoiti Q< ratk »i 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 7 1 . licit SEPTEMBER 1985 31 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Apr. Feb. Dec. Nov. P T P T Jan. July P T July Nov. P T 33. Net change in mortgage ctebt held by fin and life insurance companies (arm. rate, bil. dot.) -5 (ann. rate, bil. (W.; 112. Net change in MOD moving avg.—6-term) dot,; MCD moving avg. 111. Change in business and rate, percent) !|L,L,L anciat borrowers in credit 110. Funds raised markets, Q (arm. Jl/uuiJL 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 . 75 , 76 ~ 77 i . 78 :> •.ljui.i.:!..-i..LnJLn.aAi 79 80 81 82 , 83 . .• 84 • ' :; • . 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 7 1 and 72. 32 SEPTEMBER 1985 IICII CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 80 81 82 Current liabilities of business failures (mil. d o ! . - loans delinquent 30 days 39. Percent of consumer i ; (percent—Inverted ^cale) (bit. M-invertg ^borrowings from the Federal Reserve (bil. do!.) Ug,U 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 72. RCII SEPTEMBER 1985 33 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Jan. July P T July Nov. P T rate on new issues of 91-dqg bills (percent) I r j l g 115. Yieljlft kmg-term Treasur; IC.U.L average (percent) 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73. 34 SEPTEMBER 1985 lt€l> CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Apr. Feb. P Ian. July P T I July Nov. P 'Iftttefest Rate$^fCon.| . Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent) 1, I , 1 ;l y1 . i1 17 I Outstanding Debt credit outstamSng (bil. dol.) and industrial oans outstanding in current bil. dol.) loans outstanding in 1972 dollars dit outstanding to personal 95. Ratio, consumer , (percent) [JLJT 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 73. ttCII SEPTEMBER 1985 35 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes Mar. T Nov. P Dec. Nov. P T Apr. Fab. P T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 950. Twelve leading indicator components (6-m& s p a n * — , 1-mo. s p a n - — ) 100 - 50- 951. Four roughly coincident indicator component^ (6-rrtp. s p a n — - , 1-mo. s p a n — ) 100- Mnww iwunviffuiivniv»v iftUfliiffi/tfiiii i i B i y ill! IIM23 50- 952. Six lagging indicator Components (6-mo. sparj—•[; 1-mo. span— - ) 100-1 50- 961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers annfarturina inHnctrtoc ^Q.mn en an I.mn cnan 100- 50- 962. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas rwit riprlitiififf' Q-mn en an : I.mn «nan l^ II 100-1 50- 963. Employees on private nonagricultura! payrolls, 172-186 industries 1 .nfm cnjin ffi.mn cnari 1 ii w *"* r* ft f B ^/ f j 100- 50- JLful 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 74. 36 SEPTEMBER 1985 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart Cl- Diffusion Indexes—Continued Apr. Feb. Dec. Nov. Nov. Mar. P T P T P T Jan. July P T July Nov. P T 964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries (9-mo. s p a n ^ 1-mo. span.—) 50- oJ 965. Newly approved capital appropriations in 1972 dollars, 17 ; ( 4 - 0 moving avg.-x. 1-0 span* •+) 50- 30- 966. Industrial production, 24 industries (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo, span---) 100- 50- 0- 967. Spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (9-mo, s p a n , ^ t 1-mo. span---) 1001 50- 968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks, 46-82 industries (9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span-- - ) 100-| 50- 960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies1 (4-Q span) 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Current data for these series are shown on page 75. licit SEPTEMBER 1985 37 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued Jan. July P T July P Nov. T Nov. P Jan. July P T Mar. T r July P Nov. T 1 Pe^i | 970. Expenditures for new plant 21 industries (1-Q$j#i) J ! 74. Number of employees, manufactalig a m | | S75*!! Level of inventories, manufac (a) Actual expemj&ires *A 971. New orders, manufaqWng (4 976; Sellinl prices, Net profits, manufacturing a M trade S77. Seing prices, w h o l e s a l e ( * Net sales, manufacturing m& trade 1973 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 ^ 82 978, Selfing prices, retail trac^ (4-Q 83 84 1985 1973 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 1985 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. Current data for these series are shown on page 76. 38 SEPTEMBER 1985 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C3. Rates of Change Jan. July P T July P Nov. T change at annual rate index of twelve leading indicators J: . . . |l coincident indicators 920c. Composite index of 930c. Composite index of six lagging indicators 47c. Index of industrial production 50c. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (1-Q 48c Fmnlnvee hours in noiwricultural establishments n i icAJL •••iir... 8 51c. Personal income iess transfer payments in 1972 {dollars 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published. SEPTEMBER 1985 39 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart A l . GNP and Personal Income Apr. Feb. Dec. Nov. Nov. P T P T P Mar. T Jan J u l y P T July Nov. P T m 4500-| 4000350030002500- 200. t in current dollars, Q ( m rate, ML dol.) Gross national 2000- 1500223. Personal income in current dollars (ann. rate, bl. dol.) \ 1000- - 224. Disposable personal income in current dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. dol.) 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol) 18001600- 213. Final sales in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 140012001000800- 225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dolars, Q (ann. rate, bi. dol.) 600- 8- 217. Per capita gross national product 765- (ann. rate, thous. dol.) 1999 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80. 40 SEPTEMBER 1985 ItCIt OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES IA I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures Apr. Feb. P T Jan. July P T July Nov. P T Personal consumption expenditures n . Nondurable goods, Q if. 4 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 8 1 . SEPTEMBER 1985 41 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment Apr. Feb. P P T July July Nov. T P T Annual rate, biljortjdofars (current)) Groiis private domestic investment— 30, Change in business inventories, Q 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 . 42 SEPTEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services Jan. July P T July P Nov. T Annual rate, b i f a dollars (current) [ puittases of p d s and sgyices— 900800700600500- 400- 300- 200- 266. State and local government, Q 262. Federal Government, Q 100 - | Annual rate, billion 400350300250- 200- 267. State and local 150- 100- 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 . ItClft SEPTEMBER 1985 43 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES I A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A5. Foreign Trade Jan. July P T Apr, Feb. P T July P Nov. T Annual rate, bSton dolars (current)! 253. Imports of goods and s^rvkts, Q 252. Exports of goods land services, Q 250. Net exports o Annual rate, billion dollars (1972)1 256. Exports of goods ami services, Q—— 257. Imports of goods and services, Q 255. Met exports of goods 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 SO 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. 44 SEPTEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A6. National Income and Its Components Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T Mar. T Nov. P Jan. July P T July P Nov. T [Annual rate, bion dolars (current)| Piifr 340030002600220018001400- 10008001<m — 280. Compensation of employees, Q 600- 400360320280240- V 286. Corporate profits b^ftgtax with inventory valuation and capjtat consumptioh adjustpits, Q "^^ ^ 200180160140- M, 120- V 100908070- — 2 8 8 . Net interest, Q 50- 282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and 40- 284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q / 30- 20- ifeiii 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. K C i l SEPTEMBER 1985 45 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES IA I I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued 1 Chart A7. Saving Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T Jan. July P T Mar. T Nov. P July P Nov. T [Annual rate, bioo dollars (current)[ 600 « 550500450- r 400350- 290. Gross saving, Q 300250200- -295. Business saving, Q; . 298. Government surplus or deficit, Q 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83. 46 SEPTEMBER 1985 BCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income Apr. Feb. P T Dec. P Nov. T Nov. P Mar. T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 268. State and local government purchases \ of gdpds and services, Q 15- 265, Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q 248. Presidential fixed investment, Q ^ 247. Change in business inventories, Q 251. ISIet exports of goods and services, Q \l ' >>'(?! ^ ! Percent of National Income I 80- $4. Compensation of employees, Q 75- 70* 65- 15- 287 Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation I and capital consumption adjustments, Q 10- 283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuationand capital consumption adjustments, Q 285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 83. ItCII SEPTEMBER 1985 47 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Chart B l . Price Movements lov. Jan. Mar. July P July T i Index: 1972= 1MJ ! ij Nov. T 260-| 240 Nov. Mar. P T Jan. P July July Nov. I T 310c Implicit price deflator for gross | Percent change at annual rate] product (1-Q span) 220 i| ;i 200- || 3104 Implicit price deflator for gross M ii § 113110031 product, y + 5- 180- ^ J ^ " 160- 311c. Fixed-weighted price index, ^oss domestic business product 311. fixed-weighted price index, gross j| domestic business product, Q ~~ 1973 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 1985 1973 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 1985 Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 8F SEPTEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Jan J u l y P T July Wov. P T 322c. All urban consumers, food Chart B2. Wages and Productivity 341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1 340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (current dollars)1 346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector, Q ! 345. Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector, Q (current doiars) 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 71 72 73 74 75 76 'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88. ItCII SEPTEMBER 1985 49 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued Apr. P F@b T Nov, P Dec, Nov. P T | Wages—Con7| Mar. T Jan, July P T July P Nov. T [Percent change] fi-month snaris (mm. rate) Change jii average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagria 340c. Cufrent-dollar earnings n i gs ^Ai^JsJlWAiAi J & f S l ^ .!i! -J i i J^> Jlli. J 6-month spa«s (ann. rate) ' ;r !} Change in average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector, Q— 345c. Current-dolar compensation 4-quarter spans V V 7 Negotiated wage and benefit decisions— 148; Average first-year changes, Q (arm, r a t e ) . *hJs]'X f\ 349, Average changes over life of i| contract, Q (ann. rate) 358. Output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector, Q 370. Output per hour, all persons business sector, Q 370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. 'One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88. •fc^^Bik 50 SEPTEMBER 1985 I M J ) OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major Components Apr. Feb. P T Jan. July P T Dec. Nov. P T July P Nov. T 441. Civilian labor forc Civilian labor force participation rates (percent)— | H | 451. Males 20 years and over Both s e | i i t 6 - 1 9 years of age! j 452. F e n p s 2p, years and over Number unemployed (millions) 37. Persons unemployed Males 20 years andOvir 445. Females 20 years and over 446. Both sexes 1 6 4 9 ye^rs of age 447. timber unemployed, full4tkne workers (millions) 448. Number of persons employed part time for economic rea$^(jrollk>ns) u lil; 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 1/0^^1 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 89. SEPTEMBER 1985 51 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures Apr. Feb. P T Dec. P Now. T Nov. P Mar. T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T Annual rate, b i t a doflars (current) 1300-1 1100* 900700- 500- 502. Federal Government expenditures, Q 300- 7 501. Federal Government receipts, Q 511. State and local government receipts, Q 300200- 512. State and local government expenditures, Q 510. State and local government surplus or deficit, Q 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. 52 SEPTEMBER 1985 BCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES I£) I GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 81 82 Ice Measures of Defense Activity! (bit. dpi.; MCD moving avg,— 525. Defense Department prime contract awards (Ml. dot; MCD moving avg.~~Stterm1 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (bi. dol.) 548. (Manufacturers' new orders, defense products M. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term) 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. BCII SEPTEMBER 1985 53 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES I£ ) I GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Nov. Mar. P T Dec. Nov. P T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 220200180160 - and Final Measures of Defense Activity] $L*V7 Industrial nrnriiriWv HefprKft and snarp enninmpnt 140120- Dtat&nent net outlays, military functions and military 588. Manufacturers' shipments, (bil. doJ.) 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 . 54 SEPTEMBER 1985 BCD OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued Apr. Feb, P T Dec. Nov. Nov. Mar. P T P T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T |Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity—C 570, Employment, defense products industries (millions) Defense ||epartment personnel (r|i|pns|r- 565, National defense purchases as a percent of GNP, Q (percent) 109876541959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 . BCD SEPTEMBER 1985 55 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Chart E l . Merchandise Trade Apr. Feb. P T Jan. July P T Dec. Nov. P T July P Nov. T 24201612- 8- 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (biLdol.) 543- 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (bil.dol.) 1- 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (bldoL) 34302622181410- 9.08.07.06.05.04.0- 612. General imports (bil. del.) 3.0- 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products 2.0- 1.0- 616. Imports of automobiles and parts (bil. dol.) 0.8- 0.60.4- 0.2- 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 92. 56 SEPTEMBER 1985 BCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES E I U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements Apr. Feb. P T Jan. July P T Dec. Nov. P T July P Nov. T 81 82 Excess of receipts Excess of Goods and services— Merchandise, adjusted• • • • 4 : •.:• ib'- k [' '- -I! - Balance on merchandise trade, Q 651. U.S. investment abroad, Q Foreign investment in the United States, Q 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 93. KCII SEPTEMBER 1985 57 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Chart F l . Industrial Production Jan. July P T Apr. Feb. P T July P Nov. T [Index: 1977** 1001 Industrial production^ 721. OECD European countries 722. United Kingdom 725. West Germany ! : i! A 47. United States 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 94. 58 SEPTEMBER 1985 ItCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Chart F2. Consumer Prices Chart F3. Stock Prices Jan. July P T Nov. Mar. P T ,:,• July Nov. P T {^•••-••••.:^(- • ••••*•• --V1 ^ r Nov. Mar. P T *<>«< T ^ F ^ I ^ W ' I Jan. July P T July P Nov. T M 180+20 140- + 10- ^ c\;i 1200-1 1000- P"''•"][" ""'"vj! "'¥'":'If**'"""'I'" : :: v -'\r::!:^ 800- ^rt:!|§j j'v^gf.;.-] $ i ^ ' t i | | § ^ $ | j (/• ^§t>^ |^||S;;:4i|f^#|<-^Ife* • j M 600•,..'i :••-. , } • - . -••<.: ?.•'••• n •,. f t i i l i i ! ; T ! , 'i 1 1 : ;! 400300-i 260220- + 10- •••• ••"•'/ ••••";• •••' v; '• ••' '{'"--" •'-•" . .•••--^•. - . ; ' . • . : - ; - : 'r.._.. .••••{•''• • J i ••.'•••- • ) , • • ::--:\LJI.: nyi^JKuL^r >r!>. :Jm>~-)i 180- MI*;^/^^ if'*!*1'5 140- ;y.i; ijjj ; + 20 T + 10i k . : 0^f^&:4k0> -V. ; •••••••'••• • ' • : - • • ' • • ! ! ;; ' • ' " • • • • • ) * • • ' - • " • ' • • i; '' <•* • • • ! l - " ' ' ' 'j j . ' ^^ „ , - ' - ! • ! . ^ •. ii..1' '•: '.' 1 ••'• ; '• ; • j . • '.[ J ; \ ' '' : f '•' ; ; .. I1 •• •• • ••; . J ' . . L ' ' ^ | _ L i k • ••••^•4! • y ? S i ^ f •^^:j|.-!|^p; t-30| # - 800-1 700600500400- i^|-i;H.lii.:i||?f fi^H?i!tJiiff4 ^20- p^fs}^^ 0 ' ' • • * ? • • fl .^•-.•,-^i!-.- .^-.. il-j^-J^f i i i l ]' i[4 J + 20-| •^•^ j ^ - • | i.^o^i^^^^i N^^s^3^^*Sii^3^^ ^^^^*-.??^^j M^^'j^^NHMfc^^^l^ 300- 60 ^ 400-1 350300 250- +10 ^--s^^g^ 1=^^^--* - < ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ - ^^^^^- ^ ^^^-^^^fe^--^.-^^^^N^^^^r^ ^^^^^^ fc^^^^^^^^^^^^*4*^^^?*=i^^0-1 1973 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 ,81 82 83 84 1985 1973 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 1985 Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96. l t d ) SEPTEMBER 1985 59 CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS COMPOSITE INDEXES Year and month 910. Index of twelve leading indicators (series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106, 111) (1967-100) 920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators (series 41,47,51,57) (1967 = 100) 930. Index of six lagging indicators (series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (1967=100) 940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index Leading indicator subgroups 914. Capital investment commitments (series 12,20, 29) (1967-100) (1967 = 100) 915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8, 32, 36, 99) (1967 = 100) 916. Profitability (series 19, 26, 80) (1967 = 100) 917. Money and financial flows (series 104,106, HI) (1967 = 100) 1983 January . . . . February . . . March 145.2 147.4 150.2 134.3 133.5 134.6 115.7 115.8 114.4 116.1 115.3 117.7 106.3 107.0 107.2 97.7 99.2 101.3 97, 98, 100 127.2 129.1 129.8 April May June 152.5 154.4 157.3 135.6 137.9 139.8 113.5 111.0 109.8 119.5 124.2 127.3 107, 109. 110. 101.9 102.3 102.5 102, 104, 105.7 129, 129, 131. July ' August September . . 158.2 158.9 160.0 140.7 140.8 143.3 109, 110. 109, 128.3 127.7 130.6 109. 108, 109.3 103.1 104.4 104.7 106.5 107.0 107.9 132.4 132.0 130.2 October November . . December . . 162 162 163.4 145.0 145.9 147.5 109.6 110.0 110.9 132.3 132.6 133.0 110.4 110.1 109.2 105.4 105.2 106.1 108.4 108.6 108.8 131.1 132.0 133.9 January . . . . February . . . March 164.5 166.5 167.2 149 150 151 109.8 111.3 112.8 E> 136.2 135.3 134.0 110.3 111.5 110.8 106.1 106.8 107.5 109.2 108.4 109.3 133.4 134.8 136.3 April May June 168.1 168.2 166.7 152.6 153.9 155.4 114.6 116.4 117.5 133.2 132.2 132.3 110. 110, 111. E>107.9 107.7 106.0 110.1 110.8 110.5 136.6 138.1 138.0 July August . . . . September . . 163.9 164.4 165.7 155.7 156.0 156.5 118.8 119.8 121.0 131, 130. 129. 109. 110. 110. 104.6 103.6 103.8 110, 111. 112, 137, 136, 137. October . . . . November . . December . . 164.2 165.2 164.1 156.5 157.7 158.9 122.0 121.7 122.1 128.3 129.6 130.1 109. 109. rlO9.3 103.8 103.4 102.3 112.4 112.8 112.3 166.3 167.7 167.9 158 158 158.9 124.2 124.9 125.9 127.4 126.9 126.2 109.3 H>111.6 110.6 102.6 102.8 102.6 112.7 113.2 113.3 166.9 167.4 H67.8 E>160.1 rl59.6 158.9 rl26.0 rl28.3 rl28.1 H27.1 rl24.4 rl24.0 109.8 109.7 110.7 102.5 102,0 101.6 H>rll4.3 159.3 160.0 128.3 E>3128.3 rl24.2 P124.7 rll0.6 pill.4 rlO1.6 plOl.5 1984 135.5 136.0 rl36.2 1985 January . . . . February . . . March April May June July August . . . . September . . 169.0 B>x170.1 2 rll3.7 138, 138, ©139. 136. 136. rl35.5 rl37.8 P138.6 October . . . . November . . December . . NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by 0 ) ; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series.relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11. Excludes series 36, for which data are not available. Excludes series 57, for which data are not available. Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available. 60 SEPTEMBER 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q Minor Economic Process Marginal Employment Adjustments Timing Class Year and month EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT L,L,L 1, C, L L.C.L 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs1 (Hours) (Thous.) (Hours) Comprehensive Employment Job Vacancies L, Lg, U 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number of persons unemployed (Ratio) L, Lg, U U.C.C 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (1967 = 100) 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments (Ann. rate, bil. hours) 1983 January February March 39.4 39.2 39.6 2.4 2.4 2.5 507 478 479 0.215 0.214 0.216 83 83 83 165.75 164.04 165.06 April , May June 39.9 40.0 40.1 2.8 2.7 2.9 470 453 406 0.213 0.230 0.243 81 87 92 166.67 167.07 167.47 July August September . . . 40.3 40.3 40.7 3.0 3.1 3.3 380 408 387 0.283 0.273 0.284 100 97 98 168.29 168.25 170.68 October November . . . Oecember , . . 40.7 40.6 40.6 3.3 3.3 3.4 386 381 378 0.335 0.359 0.391 111 114 121 171.12 170.69 172.73 40.8 364 D345 348 0.406 0.435 0.420 123 129 124 174.01 175.02 174.40 360 348 350 0.419 0.435 0.485 124 125 134 176.89 176.31 176.99 365 358 368 0.484 0.449 0.459 138 128 129 177.06 177.49 178.87 1984 January February March 40.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 April May June 41.0 40.7 40.6 ^3.6 3.4 3.4 July August September . . , 40.5 40.5 40.6 3.3 3.3 3.3 October November . . . December . . , 40.5 40.5 40.6 3.3 3.4 3.4 405 397 386 0.484 0.501 5>0.527 136 137 (H>145 178.40 177.37 179.63 January February March 40. 40. 40. 3.4 3.3 3.2 378 402 389 0.488 0.496 0.489 139 140 138 180.00 179.51 181.00 April May June 40. 40. 40. 3.4 3.1 3.2 387 383 392 0.463 0.464 0.488 131 131 138 180.49 181.39 rl81.82 r40.3 P40.5 3.2 p3.3 381 375 0.490 pO.487 139 pl33 rl81.68 E)pl82.72 0)41.1 . 1985 July August September . , . October November . . . December . . , See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17. *Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. ItUI SEPTEMBER 1985 61 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q Minor Economic Process Comprehensive Unemployment Comprehensive Employment—Continued Timing Class Year and month EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Continued U.C.C 42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (Thous.) C.C.C 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls L.C.U 40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, producing industries (Thous.) {Thous.) U, Lg, U 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (Percent) L, Lg, U 37. Number of persons unemployed L. Lg, U L, Lg, U 43. Unemployment rate 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programsl (Percent) (Percent) (Thous.) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 91. Average duration of unemployment 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (Weeks) (Percent) 1933 January February March 95,792 95,756 95,897 88S835 88,740 88,942 22,938 22,836 22,814 56.53 56.43 56.47 11,513 11,556 11,430 10.4 10.4 10.3 4.5 4.5 4.4 19.0 19.2 19.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 April May June 96,209 96,282 96,987 89,244 89,578 89,945 22,923 23,051 23,177 56.59 56.56 56.97 11,316 11,258 11,273 10.2 10.2 10.1 4.4 4.2 3.9 19.3 20.3 20.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 July August September . . . 97,691 98,101 98,675 90,341 90,041 91,182 23,348 23,449 23,608 57.32 57.51 57.68 10,534 10,595 10,281 9.4 9.4 9.2 3.7 3.5 3.3 21.3 20.2 20.4 3.9 3.6 3.5 October November . . . December . . , 98,758 99,453 99,700 91,473 91,773 92,167 23,796 23,953 24,065 57.65 57.97 58.10 9,872 9,448 9,208 8.4 8.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 20.3 20.1 19.6 3.3 3.1 3.0 January February March 100,000 100,524 100,818 92,603 93,115 93,387 24,234 24,464 24,507 58.12 58.40 58.49 9,026 8,836 8,783 8.0 7.8 7.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 19.9 19.0 18.9 2.8 2.7 2.6 April May June 101,023 101,795 102,023 93,725 93,998 94,317 24,603 24,670 24,767 58.59 58.97 59.04 8,300 8,560 8,228 7.8 7.5 7.2 2.8 2.7 2,7 18. 18. 18. 2.5 2.5 2.3 July August September . . . 102,044 101,884 102,075 94,615 94,893 95,238 24,842 24,889 24,851 58.98 58.80 58.88 8,491 8,481 8,370 7.5 7.5 7.4 2.7 2.7 2.7 18.0 17.6 17.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 October November . . . December . . . 102,480 102,598 102,888 95,573 95,882 96,092 24,918 24,955 25,045 58.96 59.06 59.20 8,367 8,142 8,191 7.3 7.1 7.2 2.7 2.8 2.8 16.7 17.4 17.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 January February March 103,071 103,345 103,757 96,419 96,591 96,910 E>25,112 25,062 25,056 8,484 8,399 8,396 7.4 7.3 7.3 2.9 3.0 2,9 15. 15, 15.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 April May June 103,517 103,648 103,232 97,120 97,421 r97,473 25,090 25,066 r25,010 59.24 59.35 H>59.55 59.41 59.37 58.99 8,426 8,413 8,413 7.3 7.3 7,3 2.8 2.8 2.8 16. 103,737 ©104,080 r97,722 E>p98,0IO r24,978 p25,031 59.21 59.32 8,451 0)8,127 7.3 E>7.0 2.8 B>2.7 15.4 15.6 1984 1985 July August September . , . 15 October November . . , December , . . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18. 1 Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. 62 SEPTEMBER 1985 2.1 j>1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued B MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic Process Comprehensive Output and Income ccc Timing Class Year and month PRODUCTION AND INCOME 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dot) ccc Industrial Production ccc 223. Current dollars 52. Constant (1972) dollars 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Pefsonal income ccc 53. Wages and salaries in 1972 dollars, mining, mfg., and construction (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) CCC 47. Index of industrial production CCC 73. Index of industrial production, , durable manufactures CU 74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures • (1977 = 100) (1977 = 100) (1977 = 100) CCC 49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1983 l,49l'6 2,659.7 2,656.8 2,671.8 1,264.1 1,260.9 1,265.7 1,075.5 1,071.1 1,074.8 210.5 209.4 210.1 102.5 103.3 104.2 98.7 100.1 101.8 107.5 108.2 109.4 658*9 April May June 1,524^8 2,693.2 2,715.8 2,734.4 1,268.0 1,275.6 1,282.6 1,077.6 1,083.0 1,091.3 210.5 210.9 212.2 105.6 106.9 107.3 103.3 104.7 105.9 110.6 112.4 113.4 68L6 July August September 1,550.2 2,744.9 2,759.9 2,785.0 1,283.3 1,284.9 1,291.1 1,094.2 1,096.8 1,104.1 213.1 213.5 215.9 109.8 111.6 113.7 108.6 110.9 113.1 114.9 116,2 118.0 698 ! l October November December 1,572!) 2,814.9 2,834.2 2,860.4 1,306.2 1,312.1 1,321.2 1,119.1 1,121.9 1,130.8 217.2 218.4 219.8 114.4 114.8 115.5 114.4 114.9 116.3 117.9 117.9 117.5 715.* 5 January February March 1,610*9 2,897.4 2,923.5 2,940.6 1,332.8 1,341.7 1 ?dd n 1,144.1 1,153.1 118.4 119.3 1 90. 11 1CU 119.6 121.0 119.5 121.0 1 1 EC 0 1 , IJJ.0 221.9 223.1 99? 7 ccc. / 1 99 9 LCC . C 101 C ic i . 0 April May June 1,638.8 2,968.5 2,978.8 3,006.5 1,354,2 1,358.9 1,371.6 1,165.0 1,169.7 1,181.8 224.6 224.7 225.6 120.7 121.3 122.3 123.3 123.8 124.7 121.9 122.3 123.2 767.4' July August September 1,645:2 3,027.7 3,045.8 3,068.3 1,373.1 1,373.2 1,380.3 1,183.9 1,183.9 1,191.9 225.5 225.7 225.1 123.2 123.5 123.3 126.4 127.7 127.2 123.9 123.2 123.1 766.'8 October November December 1,662^4 3,079.3 3,097.5 3,111.8 1,381.5 1,389.0 1,397.9 1,191.8 1,198.4 1,210.3 224.5 226.3 228.0 122.7 123.4 123.3 127.0 127.5 127.4 123.3 123.8 123.4 E>778/8 1,663.5 3,129.2 3,146.0 3,156.2 1,397.0 1,400.7 1,400.9 1,201.6 1,204.6 1,205.8 0)229.0 227.8 228.2 123.6 123.7 124.0 127.8 127.2 128.0 123.2 123.8 123.9 773\6 H>rl,67il3. r3,184.7 r3,163.7 r3,175.7 E>rl,411.7 rl,399.2 rl,399.0 jH)rl,216.8 rl,204.8 r1 l1 ) ?D^ fi CUD.U 227.4 227.2 227.1 124.1 H24.1 rl24.4 128.2 rl27.9 rl27.7 124.3 rl24.7 r3,189.7 [H>p3,198.9 rl,403.9 pi,404.9 r226.4 P227.5 rl24>4 (H)pl24.8 rl27.5 g>pl28.4 Vl25.8 ' |H>Pl26.1 January February March 1984 744.9 1985 January February March April May June July August September rl,207.0 pi,210.4 r772.2 r iCD • *r October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40. 1 "Flash" estimate. K C I I SEPTEMBER 1985 63 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued • H Mm MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic Process PRODUCTION AND INCOME—Continued Capacity Utilization Timing Class L,C f U Year and month Q 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing Orders and Deliveries L.C.U 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials L, L,L (Percent) L.L.L Manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries 7. Constant (1972) dollars 6. Current dollars (Percent) CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) L.L.L 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods and materials (Bil. dol.) L, L, L 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Bil. dol.) U.L L, Lg, U 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries 32. Vendor performance, companies receiving slower deliveries (u) (Percent reporting) (Bil. dol.) 1983 69.5 70.1 70.9 70.7 71.4 72.1 82.16 77.17 78.99 35.17 32.78 33.57 31.29 31.53 31.61 4.06 -0.82 -0.42 291.86 291.04 290.62 41 42 50 April May June 71.8 72.6 73.2 72.9 73.8 74.0 82.40 82.87 88.87 34.96 35.04 37.42 32.03 33.06 33.84 2.11 1.28 4.16 292.73 294.01 298,17 52 52 52 July August September 74.6 75.7 76.9 75.8 76.8 78.4 87.96 88.80 91.58 36.94 37.26 38.38 34.38 35.02 35.17 3.33 2.53 3.22 301.50 304.04 307.25 52 61 60 October November December 77.3 77.3 77.6 79.0 79.3 79.6 95.40 98.04 98.63 39.93 40.97 41.11 36.32 37.07 37.55 5.85 5.13 1.89 313.10 318.24 320.12 64 59 67 January February March 79.2 80.0 80.4 81.6 82.1 82.5 99.55 101.79 104.45 41.51 42.24 43.18 38.33 38.30 37.21 4.38 5.44 324.50 329.94 338.09 63 68 0)72 April . May June . 80.7 80.7 81.1 82.6 82.6 82.8 97.31 100.95 98.34 40.13 41.65 40.47 37.16 37.42 1.85 4.06 n . fii U Dl 339.93 343.99 71 70 OHH-. OU oo July August September 81.7 0)81.8 81.3 83.0 B>83.1 82.7 101.98 101.86 98.21 41.98 41.85 40.32 37.51 37.39 36.21 4.14 1.61 0.00 348.73 350.34 350.34 60 54 58 •[October November i December 81.1 81.2 80.9 81.3 81.5 81.3 96.51 104.43 101.31 39.65 42.78 41.52 36.98 37.68 37.20 -4.30 2.04 -2.63 346.04 348.08 345.44 52 50 45 80.7 80.4 80.5 81.7 81.5 81.4 105.45 102.47 99.54 43.20 41.86 40.60 0)39.23 37.82 36.90 3.48 0.75 -2.58 348.92 349.67 347.10 47 48 46 April . May June 80.5 r80.3 r80 t 2 80.9 r80.1 r80.2 99.84 102.97 rlO6.78 40.70 41.86 r43.23 37.47 37.88 37.40 -2.22 0.25 r4.12 344.87 345.13 r349.25 44 44 44 July August . . September r80.0 P80.2 r79.9 p79.8 rlO4.37 0)plO7.92 r42.32 |H>p43.74 r37.63 P38.35 rl.89 p2.87 r351.14 E)P354.O1 44 42 January February March . .... 1984 ©8.14 OAA en 1985 January February March October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21. 64 SEPTEMBER 1985 KCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS | 3 • 1 l i l CONSUMPTION, TRADE, OROERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continued Minor Economic Process Formation of Business Enterprises Consumption and Trade Timing Class C,C,C C,C,C Manufacturing and trade sales Year and month 56. Current dollars (Mil. dol.) 57. Constant (1972) dollars (Mil. doi.) C, L, C 75.Index of industrial production, consumer goods C.L.U U, L, U Sales of retail stores 54. Current dollars (1977 = 100) (Mil. doi.) FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT 59. Constant L.CC 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles L.L.L 58. index of consumer sentiment © L.L.L 12. Index of net business formation L, L,L 13. Number of new business incorporationsl (1972) dollars (Mil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (1st Q 1966=100) (1967-100) (Number) 1983 January February March 347,323 345,215 350,370 154,166 153,092 155,596 103.0 103.7 104.5 92,041 92,159 94,231 45,542 45,646 46,534 78\4 70.4 74.6 80 8 111.4 113.3 112 7 49,999 48,296 48 032 April May June 353,371 360,313 368,553 155,840 159,750 163,430 106.2 107.8 108 8 95,073 96,827 98 291 46,742 47,464 48,158 88*. 1 89.1 93.3 92 2 112.0 114.8 116 4 48,903 50,211 50 992 July August September 370,864 374,813 380,348 162,746 163,623 165,068 110.3 112.2 113.4 98,651 98,590 99,534 48,169 47,999 48,364 9CL2 93.9 90.9 89.9 115.2 114.4 115.8 48,601 52,828 50,445 October November December 385,163 389,775 399,089 166,438 168,593 172,020 113.6 113.6 114.4 100,980 102,202 102,867 48,996 49,613 49,815 96.* 3 89.3 91.1 94.2 118.0 117.8 116.3 50,441 51,642 51,557 January February March 402,489 402,395 404,612 173,254 172,231 172,733 116.2 116.9 117.3 106,136 105,726 104,525 51,076 50,928 50,228 101.9 100.1 97.4 0)101.0 115.9 117.2 116.9 53,044 53,591 53,424 April May 408,342 412,524 413,976 174,104 177,265 178,302 118.3 117.7 118.5 107,443 107,941 109,085 51,630 52,020 52,698 104.6 96.1 98.1 95.5 117.5 115.7 117.0 53,933 51,166 54,729 412,233 413,300 412,276 176,575 177,143 176,087 119.1 118.4 118.3 107,563 107,396 108,373 51,713 51,509 51,878 100.9 96.6 99.1 100.9 115.8 119.1 E)119.7 52,092 51,723 52,237 414,243 417,635 421,613 176,602 178,276 180,437 118.5 119.6 119.7 108,974 110,255 110,519 51,991 52,628 52,829 loi.'s 96.3 95.7 92.9 117.7 116.0 116.6 52,587 53,490 53,503 417,350 418,667 420,776 178,600 179,051 179,626 118.8 119.1 119.8 110,972 • 112,096 111,854 52,844 53,303 53,011 103.2 96.0 93.7 93.7 117.8 118.7 116.6 53,266 54,533 p55,764 426,472 E> 428,275 r418,378 rl81,644 E>rl82,711 rl78,984 119.5 rl20.0 r!20.7 115,351 114,884 rll3,730 54,539 54,422 r53,900 94.6 91.8 96.5 116.6 114.3 117.6 (NA) [H)rlO4.7 p422,243 (NA) pl80,262 (NA) rl20.4 E>P121.3 rll3,912 E>pll6,102 r53,987 H>P55,1O3 94.0 92.4 118.0 P119.0 1984 June July August September , October November December 1985 l&nuzry February March April May June July August September October , November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23. S e r i e s 13 reached i t s high value (57,507) in December 1982. SEPTEMBER 1985 65 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS | H Minor Economic Process Business Investment Commitments Timing Class L.L.L L, I, L Contracts and orders for plant and equipment Year and month FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued 10. Current dollars (Bil. dol.) 20. Constant (1972) dollars (Bil. dol.) U,L L, L,L Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods industries 24. Current dollars (Bil. dot.) U, Lg. U L, C. U 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings1 27. Constant (1972) dollars Square feet of floor space (Bil. dol.) (Millions) Square meters of floor space» (Millions) 1983 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations C Lg, Lg 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) Revised 3 Revised 3 ... January February March 23.72 24.07 23.82 11.85 11.77 12.59 20.94 19.18 20.13 10.67 9.68 11.01 61.13 58.88 55.37 5.68 5.47 5.14 20.07 April May June 26.07 26.57 27.49 13.32 13.08 14.15 22.26 21.50 23.69 11.68 10.91 12.54 57.11 57.60 63.13 5.31 5.35 5.86 20!87 July August September 25.73 27.36 28.91 12.92 13.51 15.04 22.15 22.96 24.99 11.41 11.65 13.38 63.03 63.93 70.18 5.86 5.94 6.52 22'.78 October November December 29.28 28.57 28.59 14.60 13.90 14.04 25.38 24.33 25.23 12.95 12.10 12.62 71.15 73.07 68.14 6.61 6.79 6.33 24'.26 January February March 29.37 30.98 30.97 14.85 15.55 15.75 25.72 27.02 26.76 13.32 13.89 14.00 72.72 64.41 74.95 6.76 5.98 6.96 26.92 April May . . . June 30.22 33.30 31.86 14.94 16.56 15.95 26.33 28.56 27.72 13.33 14.61 14.25 79.78 82.49 74.90 7.41 7.66 6.96 H>34*.i2 July August September 33.16 r31.17 31.59 15.62 rl5.46 15.58 28.14 26.74 27.39 13.57 13.65 13.86 79.55 82165 75.84 7.39 7.68 7.05 27.31 7.34 7.78 8.06 29.10 69! 60 70.58 72.57 73.50 1984 78.46 89.18 92.06 30.29 31.60 31.15 14.88 15.86 14.19 25.26 26.84 26.89 12.83 13.92 12.47 79.04 83.75 86.73 27.34 E>33.73 31 77 12.80 [H> 18.55 15 89 23.63 0)29.49 27 21 11.31 E>16.85 14 06 81.14 82.48 87.41 7.54 7.66 8.12 29.94 April May June 29.99 30.03 r31.89 14.13 14.79 r]L5.56 25.46 25.59 r27.98 12.33 13.02 rl4.01 I©91.95 83.99 69.68 8.54 7.80 6.47 P28.60 July August September r32.11 p31.78 rl5.36 plS.36 r26.68 P27.2O rl3.21 P13.54 91.89 91.41 E>8.54 8.49 October November December 94.37 1985 January February March 0>p99'.86 October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24. lr rhis is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 66 SEPTEMBER 1985 I N ] I I CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS J J Minor Economic Process Residential Construction Commitments and Investment Business Investment Expenditures Timing Class Year and month FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued . C Lg, Lg C, Lg, Lg 61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment by U.S. nonfarm business 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures* (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C, Lg, U 76. Index of industrial production, business equipment ' (1977 = 100) ' C, Lg, C Lg, Lg, Lg C, Lg, C Gross private nonresidential " fixed investment in 1972 dollars 86. Total 87. Structures (Ann. rate, . bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 88. Producers' durable equipment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L, L L, L, L 28. New private housing units started 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (Ann. rate, thous.) (1967-100) L.L,L 89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 1983 310.84 300.99 311.35 109.2 109.4 295.24 312.62 303.44 324.11 308!79 161.6 49.0 112.5 1,605 1,675 1,635 115.2 118.8 119.2 46.2 111.5 112.4 113.4 165!3 48*. 1 -117l2 1,512 1,780 1,716 126.5 134.8 142.9 53!4 318.69 321.45 327.37 : 114.6 117.7 120.8 172.6 48!3 124! 3 1,775 1,907 1,677 145.0 138.4 128.0 57*.2 325!75 326.58 337.58 352.66 120.7 121.7 123.0 184.5 51.4 133! i 1,696 1,748 1,704 138.6 134.7 131.4 57.*8 January February March 344.25 347.76 360.86 127.1 128.5 130.4 1,933 337!95 19^3 54! i 139.2 0)2,208 1,700 146.7 E>157.6 138.7 60.6 April May June 349.97 360.32 372.34 380.00 131.2 133.3 135.5 202.9 56!8 146.6 1,949 1,787 1,837 142.6 140.7 143.9 60,8 July August September 361 '.48 372.18 379.37 393.90 137.0 139.1 139.2 209! 5 57!i 152^4 1,730 1,590 1,669 126.9 123.0 121.0 6o!i October November December 368!29 387.81 392.33 E>408.82 139.1 139.8 138.4 21^8 59!i 154'.4 1,564 1,600 1,630 117.8 128.9 127.5 59.2 37l!l6 376.70 390.74 407.17 . 140.4 140.0 140.2 213!6 60.8 152.2 1,849 1,647 1,889 130.4 129.5 138.8 6o!6 0)387.83 403.73 r398.28 r403.00 0)142.0 rl41.9 •T140.6 0>r22O.3 G>r62.1 H>rl58.2 1,933 1,681 rl,701 135.9 141.8 136.5 E>r60.9 a389.*54 P398.40 (NA) rl40.4 P140.7 rl,647 pi,749 135.1 142.3 January February March . / 289!36 April May June ; July August September October November , December ,. 110.0 1984 1985 January February March April May June July August September October November December : . a387.40 See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25. ^ee "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. SEPTEMBER 1985 67 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS NVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month Inventories on Hand and on Order Inventory Investment L, L, L 30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) UL.L L.L.L 36. Change in mfg, and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars Actual Smoothed' (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories, book value (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L, L 38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (Bil. dol.) Lg. Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Manufacturing and trade inventories 71. Book value (Bil. dol.) 70. Constant (1972) dollars (Bil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods, book value 77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1972 dollars L. Lg, Lg 78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (Ratio) (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) 1983 -30.0 -7.4 -38.6 -0.04 1.00 0.54 506.71 506.10 502.88 257.82 257.60 256.06 84.37 83.74 82.68 1.67 1.68 1.65 191.29 192.29 192.83 2.3 7.5 8.9 -0.02 0.64 2.09 503.07 503.70 504.44 255.89 256.22 255.65 82.32 82.06 81.86 1.64 1.60 1.56 192,81 193.45 195.54 6.63 10.44 13.84 10 30 39.1 1.77 2.96 1.57 505.33 507.85 511.10 255.86 256.31 256.78 82.14 81.70 81.45 1.57 1.57 1.56 197.31 200.27 201.84 20.28 19.19 13.51 16.32 17.07 17.45 24.8 36.6 48.7 E>3.02 1.96 1.91 513.17 516.22 520.28 257.29 258.06 259.02 81.20 81.55 80.96 1.55 1.53 1.51 204.86 206.82 208.73 H>31.6 27.55 E)47.38 25.36 18.87 24.78 31.46 2.81 2.82 2.35 524.73 532.14 538.82 260.17 263.23 265.12 81.16 81.90 83.14 1.50 1.53 1.53 211.54 214.36 216.71 April May June 20.3 39.68 28.45 -6.72 E>35.45 34.32 25.82 85.3 54.9 23.0 1.81 1.66 -0.22 545.93 550.50 552.42 267.98 270.03 270.03 84.14 85.11 86.38 1.54 1.52 1.51 218.52 220.18 219.97 July August September . . . 30.6 27.41 19.49 16.56 18.42 14.89 17.27 57.0 54. 45. 2.61 -0.18 -0.05 557.17 561.72 565.48 272.11 274.34 276.10 86.95 87.80 88.55 1.54 1.55 1.57 ©222.58 222.40 222.35 October November . . . December . . . 16.8 8.39 0.07 -5.72 17.98 11.58 4.63 39.3 29.9 26.3 -2.43 -1.56 -1.06 568.75 571.24 573.43 277.64 278.27 278.97 88.89 89.27 89.69 1.57 1.56 1.55 219.92 218.36 217.30 19.1 22.68 19.98 -5.82 3.30 9.00 12.30 28.4 37.7 -2.1 0.65 -0.48 -3.07 575.80 578.94 578.77 280.39 282.33 282.72 89.69 89.86 90.12 1.57 1.58 1.57 217,95 217.47 214.40 -0.94 -1.54 1.68 0)580.20 577.78 r579.66 r283.44 r282.80 r283.48 90.12 H>90.13 89.87 1.56 1.55 E>1.58 213.46 211.93 213.61 p-0.46 (NA) P579.75 (NA) [H)p283.88 89.26 (NA) pi.57 (NA) P213.15 January . . February . March . . . -16.5 -14.18 2,20 -15.07 April . . . . May . . . . June -6.1 2.99 9.18 0.82 July . . . . August . . September 0.9 16.79 18.22 12.22 October . . November December 7.2 -24.16 -17.24 -9.98 -6 -2 1 1984 January February March 1985 January February March . . . . . . April May June July August September . . . 8.3 r2.94 r8.99 r-13.15 r4.19 r0.18 r-3.68 17.2 -29.0 r22.6 pi.88 (NA) p-2.18 (NA) pl.O (NA) (NA) October November . . . December . . . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27. 1 This s e r i e s i s a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. SEPTEMBER 1985 Hill CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q j Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month Stock Prices Sensitive Commodity Prices L.L.L 98. Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and intermediate materials (Percent) 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial, materials' @ (1967 = 100) U,L U,L U, L, L 99. Change in sensitive materials prices Smoothed2 Actual PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (Percent) (Percent) 1.40 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks @ Profits and Profit Margins L.L.L L.L.L Corporate profits after tax 16. Current dollars 18. Constant (1972) dollars L, C,L L.CL Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj3 79. Current dollars 80. Constant (1972) dollars L.L.L 22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to corporate domestic income (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Percent) 144.27 146.80 151.88 102^6 4&\9 120*6 57.3 5*.3 (1941-43 = 10) 1983 0)2.53 1.72 232.1 241.3 248.8 0)2.49 1.80 -0.04 0.78 1.61 0.04 1.62 2.28 253.2 251.5 250.5 0.53 0.66 1.09 H> 1.75 1.30 0.88 157.71 164.10 166.39 123.4 58*9 14l'.9 67l9 6*3 July August September 0.81 1.24 -0.43 256.0 265.2 267.9 1.04 1.71 0.08 0.85 1.10 1.11 166.96 162.42 167.16 142*6 67*9 160.* 2 76\5 7.1 October November December 1.60 1.08 0.84 273.4 279.8 282.4 1.43 1,24 0.70 1.01 1.00 1.02 167.65 165.23 164.36 141.' 1 66*4 175.5 83*0 6*9 January February March .. -1.09 0.97 0.29 283.6 283.6 289.2 -0.45 0.53 0,73 0.81 0.38 0.26 166.39 157.25 157.44 H>150.*6 B>7i."6 184.7 87*5 7*1 April . May June -0.29 -0.71 -1.04 288.6 0)289.5 286.2 -0.20 -0.28 -0.89 0.31 0.22 -0.19 157.60 156.55 153.12 150.2 70*3 195^2 92] i (8)7*1 July August September -1.54 -1.20 0.54 280.1 275.6 274.0 -1.43 -1.12 0.13 -0.66 -1.01 -0.98 151.08 164.42 166.11 141.'7 65.7 199^8 93*6 h'.s October November December -0.13 0.17 -0.40 266.4 268.3 261.9 -0.88 0.30 -0.93 -0.72 -0.39 -0.33 164.82 166.27 164.48 141.6 65.6 203.9 95.0 -0.71 -1.72 -0.62 255.8 253.1 252.4 -1.06 -1.20 -0.39 -0.53 -0.81 -0.97 171.61 180.88 179.42 137.0 62~4 207.0 95.4 6.2 r-0.28 rO.97 0.10 257.1 252.0 242.9 0.39 -0.09 -1.00 -0.64 -0.22 -0.13 180.62 184.90 188.89 rl37.4 r62.3 H>r214.9 [H>r98.8 rf.O -0.07 -0.52 240.7 239.8 "238,0 -0.31 -0.40 -0.35 -0.52 0)192.54 188.31 5 183.69 1.56 January February March April May June 1984 1985 January February March April May June July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29. l This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. See footnote 1 on page 68. 3IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. ''Average for September 1-24. 5 Average for September 4, 11, IS, and 25. 2 inn SEPTEMBER 1985 69 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS g j Minor Economic Process Cash Flows Profits and Profit Margins—Continued Timing Class Year and month PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued L,L,L Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share U,L,L L,L, L L,L,L 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj to corp. domestic income1 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector (Percent) (Cents) (1977 = 100) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (1977-100) 156!8 L, L, L Corporate net cash flow 34. Current dollars Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg,»Lg 63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector 68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfinancial corporations 35. Constant (1972) dollars (Dollars) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Actual data Actual data as a percent of trend (1967 = 100) (Percent) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Percent) 1983 January February March 6*. 5 ^3 96\4 280.0 13CK9 April May June 7. # 5 4*.6 97.9 31CL5 July . August September Q.'l 4^2 9&\7 October November December 8.9 i!s 9a 4*.9 1.421 221.9 220.2 219.0 100.3 99.0 98.0 7616 146! 2 1.408 218.4 216.7 216.5 97.3 96.1 95.6 75.2 339.6 159.2 1.400 214.3 212.0 211.0 94.1 92.7 91.8 74*.5 9&\8 345! 6 16CK9 156!s 1.408 211.9 213.5 215.1 91.8 92.0 92.3 74*.3 9&\7 360'.4 167^5 157.7 1.415 213.0 213.1 90.9 . 90.5 1984 January February March 73^5 QQ Q O? . O April May June , 9!6 E>4.'9 99.*8 366^7 16913 156\5 1.414 212.9 212.5 211.7 89.6 89.0 88.2 73.3 July August September 9*.7 i.'i 99^7 366'.7 168!i 158.6 1.434 210.5 210.8 211.3 87.3 87.0 " 86.8 73^4 October November December 9^9 4^3 E>ioo!i 375*.3 17K3 15814 1.438 212.1 213.2 215.6 86.7 86.8 87.3 73^4 <L9 4^2 99.4 378^9 ll'l.S 161.*9 1.462 (H>216.4 216.0 216.1 87.2 86.7 86.3 73^9 0)10.1 3.7 99.5 [H>r388.*4 [H>162.7 fi>1.473 215.1 r215.3 85.5 r85.2 r84.9 r84.4 p84.2 1985 January February March April May June . . . [H>rl75!3 July August September r215.7 r215.4 P215.9 October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30. l IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment, 70 SEPTEMBER 1985 B>74.2 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q | Minor Economic Process Money Timing Class L, C. U Year . and month MONEY AND CREDIT 85. Change in money supply M l (Percent) 102. Change in money supply M2 (Percent) UL,L 104, Change in total liquid assets (Percent) Velocity of Money L, L, L 105. Money supply Ml in 1972 dollars (Bil. dol.) UL.L 106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (Bil. dol.) C.C.C 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml (Ratio) Credit Flows C Lg, C 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (Ratio) L.L.L L, L, L 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 112. Net change in business loans (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1983 January February March 0.75 1.18 1.16 0)2.78 1.83 0.82 ! 0.98 .0.74 206.7 209.2 211.4 857.2 873.5 879.7 6.476 1.324 1.299 1.295 45.77 40.99 -40.55 46.25 -1.91 10.98 April May June 0.69 1.32 0.81 0.70 0.78 0.68 0.87 0.66 0.82 211.5 213.4 214.6 880.0 883.2 887.1 6.469 1.296 1.297 1.297 1.30 -38.76 32.99 -46.07 -45.98 3.02 July August September . ... 0.96 0.70 0.41 0.61 0.52 0.63 1.01 0.88 0.71 215.8 216.6 216.7 889.0 890.6 893.0 6.462 1.294 1.295 1.298 63.30 70.21 5.22 -3.26 14.05 -0.50 October November , . . December . . . 0.67 0.42 0.34 0.90 0.64 0.49 0.53 0.89 1.13 217.4 217.6 217.7 898.0 900.7 902.4 6.523 1.301 1.301 1.307 81.37 78.73 110.02 -8.98 18.46 53.30 January February March 0.64 0.53 0.58 0.61 0.67 0.55 0.72 0.79 1.17 217.7 218.0 218.7 902.4 904.8 907.1 6.650 316 319 1.319 78.56 89.56 110.09 0.16 55.91 0)110.20 April May June 0.35 0.61 0.88 0.54 0.63 0.63 0.97 1.09 1.15 218, 219, 221.0 908.2 912.4 916.3 6.712 1.325 1.321 1.325 129.68 131.71 113.03 87.13 81.90 93.26 July August September . . . -0.07 0.37 0.47 0.48 0.55 0.68 1.05 0.79 0.89 220.1 220.0 220.3 917.8 919.0 922.0 6.728 .328 .328 0)1.329 113.89 109.14 E)140.08 38.29 15.88 42.76 October -0.58 1.00 0.85 0.47 1.16 1.08 0.62 r0.81 1.07 218.4 220.1 221.5 923.7 932.7 940.4 5.791 1.328 1.320 1.312 87.59 70.76 30.52 52,49 57.98 8.10 0.75 1.19 0.47 1.15 0.92 0.34 0.64 0.88 0.78 222.7 224.6 224.6 949.4 954.8 953.6 6.708 1.304 1.299 1.299 r86.58 r44.72 rl00.56 38.95 21.36 32.24 0.49 ,17 ,65 -0.08 0.71 1.15 0.08 pO.50 (NA) 224.8 227.0 230.2 949.2 954.0 962.8 r6.614 rl.312 1.294 r1.284 r90.41 r66.08 r77.05 r32.30 r-53.76 rO,78 0>pl.71 M.49 rO.71 pO.93 231.6 0>p235.1 r967.8 0)p975.O rl.281 pi.273 P63.55 1984 November . . . December . . . 1985 January February March April May June July August . . September , (NA) 14.71 r24.58 p-2.00 October . . November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32. 1 Average for weeks ended September 2 and S BCII SEPTEMBER 1985 71 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q Minor Economic Process Year and month L.L.L 113. Net change in consumer installment credit (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L,L 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (Ann. rate, percent) Bank Reserves Credit Difficulties Credit Flows—Continued Timing Class MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued L.L.L L.L.L 110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets 14. Current liabilities of business failures (u) (Ann. rate, mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) L.L.L L.U.U Interest Rates L, Lg, U 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over 93. Free reserves © 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (u) (Percent) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) L, Lg, Lg 119. Federal funds rate (u) (Percent) C, Lg, Lg 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills 0 (Percent) 1 Revised 1983 January February March 23.30 21.24 40.02 8.4 2.9 0.1 295,504 2,158.1 1,086.4 1,154.7 April May June 33.78 35.38 47.28 -0.6 -3.8 5.5 396,432 1,125.6 920.0 2,188.6 July August September . . . 53.48 54.48 44.68 8.9 9.9 2.6 396,536 October November . . . December . . . 73.66 69.02 76.45 8.6 11.7 14.3 525,532 63.20 74.26 71.15 10.3 15.1 20.3 81.50 0)109.12 84.98 July August September . . . October November . . . December . . . 46 -122 -415 500 557 852 8.68 8.51 8.77 7.81 8.13 8.30 1.92 -517 -453 -1,234 993 902 1,714 8.80 8.63 8.98 8.25 8.19 8.82 829.2 1,353.1 947.2 1.95 1.90 1.88 -875 -1,127 -943 1,382 1,573 1,441 9.37 9.56 9.45 9.12 9.39 9.05 1,816.8 1,624.5 868.5 1.91 1.86 1.94 -332 -383 -184 837 912 745 9.48 9.34 9.47 8.71 8.71 8.96 (NA) 416,056 1.84 1)1.78 1.85 -102 376 -241 715 567 952 9.56 9.59 9.91 8.93 9.03 9.44 20.0 0)24.0 20.6 521,868 2.06 1.96 2.02 -742 -2,408 -2,526 1,234 2,988 3,300 10.29 10.32 11.06 9.69 9.90 9.94 77.77 72.26 59.78 13.7 11.8 17.1 407,008 1.96 1.93 2.10 -5,311 -7,328 -6,614 5,924 )8,017 7,242 11.23 0)11.64 11.30 10.13 0)10.49 10.41 67.57 72.96 81.83 11.1 12.1 6.4 E>585,732 1.91 1.97 2.09 -5,397 -3,924 -2,333 6,017 4,617 3,186 9.99 9.43 8.38 9.97 8.79 8.16 January February March 86.68 108.49 100.10 13.9 9.2 13.3 435,892 2.20 2.19 2.40 -650 -386 -827 1,395 1 ,.289 1,593 8.35 8.50 8.58 7.76 8.22 8.57 April May June 99.24 108.50 r62.72 11.5 11.3 r3.6 2.38 2.25 2.33 -585 -530 -300 1,323 1,334 1,205 8.27 7.97 7.53 8.00 p438,352 74.96 (NA) r8.8 p7.6 (NA) r-252 p-238 1,107 pi,073 1984 January February March April May June 1985 July August September . . , 7.88 7.90 7.84 2 3 7.17 October November . . . December . . . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 32, 33, and 34. 1 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 2 Average for weeks ended September 4, 11, and 18. 3 Average for weeks ended September 5> 12, and 19. 72 SEPTEMBER 1985 ItCIt CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^ J Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month MONEY ANO CREDIT—Continued Interest Rates—Continued Lg, Lg, Lg C, Lg, Lg U, Lg, Lg 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds @ 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds © 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20bond average © (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) Outstanding Debt Lg, Lg, Lg Lg. Lg, Lg 118. Secondary market yields onFHA mortgages © 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans © (Percent) (Percent) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 109. Average prime rate charged by banks © 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (Percent) (Mil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 72. Current dollars (Mil dol.) 101. Constant (1972) dollars (Mil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (Percent) 1983 January . February March . . 12.04 12.11 11.81 10.37 10.60 10.34 9.50 9.58 9.20 12.87 12.65 12.68 10.20 11.16 10.98 10.50 330,217 331,987 335,322 268,553 268,394 269,309 106,653 106,253 106,699 12.42 12.50 12.55 April . . . May . . . June . . . 11.58 11.24 11.90 10.19 10.21 10.64 9.05 9.11 9.52 12.50 12.41 12.96 10.31 10.50 10.50 10.50 338,137 341,085 345,025 265,470 261,638 261,890 105,178 103,373 103,147 12.56 12.56 12.62 July August September . . . 12.46 12.89 12.68 11.10 11.42 11.26 9.53 9.72 9.58 14.23 13.78 13.55 11.09 10.50 10.89 11.00 349,482 354,022 357,745 261,618 262,789 262,747 102,756 102,732 102,515 12.73 12.83 12.85 October November . . . December . . . 12.54 12.86 12.87 11.21 11.32 11.44 9.66 9.75 9.89 13.23 13.23 13.25 10.95 11.00 11.00 11.00 363,883 369,635 376,006 261,999 263,537 267,979 101,985 102,743 104,272 12.93 13.04 13.15 12.65 12.80 13.36 11,29 11.44 11.90 9.63 9.64 9.93 13.08 13.20 13.68 11.06 11.00 11.00 11.21 381,273 387,461 393,390 267,992 272,651 281,834 103,632 105,108 107,941 13.16 13.25 13.38 13.64 14.41 0)14.49 12.17 12.89 0)13.00 9.96 10.49 0)10.67 13.80 0)15.01 14.91 12.45 11.93 12.39 12.60 400,182 409,275 416,357 289,095 295,920 303,692 110,595 113,163 116,179 13.48 13.74 13.85 July , August September . . . 14.25 13.54 13.37 12.82 12.23 11.97 10.42 9.99 10.10 14.58 14.21 13.99 0)13.29 13.00 0)13.00 12.97 422,838 428,860 433,842 306,883 308,206 311,769 117,176 118,132 120,050 13.97 14.08 14.14 October November . . . December . . . 13.02 12.40 12.47 11.66 11.25 11.21 10.25 10.17 9.95 13.43 12.90 12.99 11.29 12.58 11.77 11.06 439,473 445,553 452,372 316,143 320,975 321,650 121,687 123,215 123,664 14.27 14.38 14.54 January February March 12.46 12.39 12.85 11.15 11.35 11.78 9.51 9.65 9.77 13.01 13.27 13.43 10.10 10.61 10.50 10.50 459,595 468,636 476,978 324,896 326,676 329,363 125,008 125,887 127,118 14.69 14.90 15.11 April May June 12.45 11.85 11.33 11.42 10.96 10.36 9.42 9.01 8.69 12.97 12.28 11.89 9.90 10.50 10.31 9.78 330,589 485,248 494,290 [H>r333,281 r328,801 r499,517 127,296 rl28,086 rl26,706 rl5.24 15.62 rl5.73 11.28 11.61 Ml.68 10.51 10.59 '10.67 8.81 9.08 9.23 12.12 11.99 127,544 330,849 p330,682 0>pl28,221 0)pl5.86 (NA) 1984 January February March April May June 1985 July August September . . . 2 9.27 3 9.50 9.50 9.50 0)505,764 (NA) October November . . . December . . . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35. 'Average for weeks ended September 6, 13, and 20. 2 Average for weeks ended September 5, 12, and 19. 3 Average for September 1 through 24. SEPTEMBER 1985 73 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE DIFFUSION INDEXES Year and month 950. Twelve leading indicator components (series 1, 5, 8, 12,19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106, 111) 1-month span 6-month span 951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (series 41,47,51,57) 1-month span 6-month span 952. Six lagging indicator components (series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101,109) 1-month span 6-month span 961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing industries 1-month span 9-month span 962. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas' 1-month span 9-month span 963. Employees on private nonagncuttural payrolls, 186 industries 1-month span 6-month span 1983 January February March 75.0 70.8 66.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 25.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 33.3 50.0 25.0 16.7 16.7 16.7 82.5 15.0 100.0 90.0 90.0 87.5 68.6 57.8 35.3 98.0 96.1 100.0 52.2 45.9 59.7 50.0 62.4 65.7 April May June 87.5 70.8 87.5 91.7 100.0 91.7 87.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100,0 100.0 25.0 8.3 25.0 16.7 16. 33. 95.0 95.0 90.0 90.0 80.4 48.0 78.4 84.3 52. 92. 90, 92, 70.0 68.9 63.0 67.8 74.3 78.4 July August September . . , 62.5 62.5 66.7 91.7 83.3 66.7 75.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 58. 58, 16, 33. 41. 66, 77. 67. 87.5 95.0 95.0 95.0 70.6 7.8 96.1 94, 80, 72, 7 69. 5 73. 2 79.7 79.5 78.9 October . . November December 75.0 45.8 62.5 83.3 83.3 79.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 41. 58. 75.0 66. 66. 66.7 52.5 42.5 50.0 100.0 87.5 95.0 58.8 35.3 60.8 84, 86, 68.6 74.1 66.8 68.9 79.2 79.7 78.4 January . February March , , 58.3 70.8 50.0 75.0 70.8 62.5 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 8.3 75.0 75.0 66.7 66.7 75.0 70.0 82.5 10.0 80.0 42.5 37.5 36.3 72,5 68.6 76.5 90.2 56.9 67.3 72.7 66.8 79.2 77.8 77.3 April May June 58 41. 25.0 25.0 25.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 83. 66. 66. 83, 83. 83, 95.0 2.5 30.0 27. 47. 15.0 43. 29. 92, 66.7 70. 38. 67.3 60.5 64.3 75.4 69.2 64.9 July August September . . . 16.7 37.5 75.0 25.0 75.0 87.5 50.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 83.3 75.0 66.7 83, 66, 66. 37.5 45.0 72.5 10.0 45.0 7.5 19.6 51.0 74.5 27, 37. 13.7 65. 58. 48.4 63, 64, 67.0 October 33.3 70.8 41.7 66. 50. 50.0 62.5 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 58.3 50.0 66.7 66.7 66.7 58.3 25.0 57.5 62.5 5.0 27.5 17.5 7.8 70.6 72.5 33, 15. 31.4 66.5 55,1 63.5 59.7 57.6 60.3 January February March 70.8 50.0 41.7 58.3 50.0 58.3 50.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100,0 50.0 66.7 50.0 5O'.O 50.0 50.0 66.7 32.5 5.0 85.0 40.0 r32.5 r37.5 13, 70, 84. 33.3 r45.1 p66.0 57.6 50,3 55.9 52.2 49.5 r44.3 April May June 37.5 70.8 50.0 50.0 63.6 100,0 r62.5 r75.0 100.0 100.0 41.7 50.0 33.3 41.7 *50.0 12.5 75.0 r67.5 P55.0 19.6 45.1 (NA) r43.5 p45.9 r86.3 44.6 50.3 r47.0 plO.O (NA) r51.4 P59.7 1984 25.0 November . . . December . . , 33, 29. 1985 July August September . . . 62.5 2 50.0 2 87.5 3 100.0 3 41.7 "37.5 r25.0 p70.0 October November . . . December . . . NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 36. figures are the percent of components declining. 2 Excludes series 36, for which data are not available. 3 Excludes series 57, for which data are not available. ^Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available. 74 SEPTEMBER 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued Year and month 964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34 durable goods industries 1-month span 9-month span 965, Newly approved capital appropriations in 1972 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries 1-quarter span 966. Industrial production, 24 industries 967. Spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials © 1-month span 9-month span 968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks1 © 960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies 7 © 4-Q moving average 1-month span 6-month span 56 83.3 62.5 66.7 83.3 91.7 95.8 61.5 76.9 57.7 80.8 61.5 57.7 63.3 59.2 73.5 83.3 95.8 100.0 65.4 46.2 46.2 80.8 96.2 88.5 81 91 65 89.8 52 79.2 77,1 70.8 95.8 95.8 89.6 57.7 73.1 57.7 88.5 80.8 73.1 52.0 30. 85, 91, 80, 72. 82 59 95.8 75.0 91.7 95.8 91.7 91.7 69.2 76.9 42.3 80.8 80.8 73.1 47.9 57.4 61.7 38.3 40.4 34.0 81 60 60.4 58.3 58.3 95.8 91.7 87.5 38.5 61.5 65.4 73.1 65.4 42.3 52.1 10.6 60.6 41.5 25.5 58.7 76 56 87.5 91.7 64.6 83.3 66.7 70.8 50.0 50.0 42.3 34.6 30.8 30.8 43.6 36.2 36.2 30.4 37.0 37.0 76 r58 66.7 43.8 66.7 66.7 62.5 50.0 34.6 46.2 46.2 23.1 15.4 15.4 34.8 93.5 73.9 60.9 54, 65. 68 r54 79.2 43.8 45.8 41.7 37.5 45.8 30.8 57.7 19.2 15.4 19.2 34.6 34.8 78.3 26.1 82. 82, p50 47.9 62.5 41.7 89. 93. 41. 77.8 73.3 85.6 57. 66. 75.6 77.8 1-month span 9-month span (4-quarter span) 1983 January February March 72.1 57.4 61.8 88.2 82.4 85.3 45 April May June 79.4 63.2 69.1 86.8 88.2 91.2 53 July August . . . . . . September . . . 55.9 61.8 70.6 97.1 91.2 91.2 50 October November . . . Oecember . . . 63.2 64.7 58.8 97.1 94.1 91.2 59 January ....... February March . . . ' . . . 67.6 50.0 52.9 91.2 79.4 85.3 71 April May June 35.3 58.8 26.5 75.0 52.9 41.2 59 July August September . . . 55. 51, 41. 44,1 61.8 52.9 36 October 55.9 55.9 52.9 29.4 55.9 44.1 >65 January February March 52.9 35.3 55.9 45.6 63.2 r52.9 r56 50.0 52.1 66.7 58.3 62.5 r66.7 23.1 38.5 57.7 23.1 23.1 23.1 April May . June 47.1 60.3 61.8 P58.8 p42 45,8 r72.9 r50.0 r66.7 P66.7 76.9 38.5 23.1 23.1 "38.5 100.0 98.0 93.9 87, 86, 71 74 1984 November . . . December . ... 68 91.3 1985 July . . . . . August September 55.9 p47.1 r62.5 p66.7 38.5 46.2 M6.2 76.7 30.0 October November December See note on page 74. • ... • Graphs of these series are shown on page 37. 1 Based on 49 industries through August 1983, on 48 industries through October 1983, on 47 industries through June 1984, and on 46 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source. 2 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc. 3 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. "Based on average for September 3, 10, 17, and 24. SEPTEMBER 1985 75 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Q j Year and quarter 970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, 21 industries (1-Qspan) Revised c. Early projections b. Later projections a. Actual expenditures (1-Q span) (1-Q span) 2 Revised 8 Revised DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued 971. New orders, manufacturing' © 972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade] © Actual Actual Anticipated (4-Q span) {4-Q span) 973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade 1 © Actual Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) Anticipated 2 1982 First quarter . . . . . . Second quarter . . . . Third quarter . . . . . Fourth quarter . . . . 42.9 23.8 14.3 28.6 47.6 38.1 33.3 52.4 47.6 61.9 66.7 66.7 52 50 52 56 60 68 64 60 53 52 52 54 61 66 66 60 63 58 57 60 65 70 72 65 38.1 50.0 81.0 95.2 47.6 66.7 90.5 81.0 42.9 54.8 76.2 76.2 66 74 78 84 66 77 82 85 62 66 71 74 64 73 80 81 66 74 74 80 68 78 84 86 88.1 71.4 88.1 61.9 76.2 64.3 76.2 71.4 57.1 78.6 92.9 54.8 90 86 84 79 88 91 90 88 80 79 74 74 84 86 88 84 85 84 82 80 88 90 90 88 57.1 73.8 52.4 76.2 61.9 47.6 85.7 76.2 42.9 74 74 82 84 82 80 70 69 80 81 81 78 76 74 84 84 84 81 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1984 First quarter . . . . . . . Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . Q j Year and quarter DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued 974, Number of employees, manufacturing and trade' © 975. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade' @ 976. Selling prices, manufacturing1 © Actual Actual Actual Anticipated Anticipated 978. Selling prices, retail trade 1 © 977. Selling prices, wholesale trade1© Anticipated Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 72 67 68 61 82 78 72 68 78 75 74 68 82 81 76 72 65 66 70 69 63 62 68 70 68 64 68 72 68 72 69 72 69 67 70 71 74 70 70 68 74 76 76 72 73 69 65 65 72 76 75 72 72 68 70 70 70 74 74 68 65 62 70 70 64 62 64 60 68 66 66 60 66 63 65 70 67 62 (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 48 46 46 46 50 51 51 48 58 52 52 52 54 56 56 50 72 68 63 60 80 76 68 66 48 54 58 61 50 56 59 60 54 59 62 68 52 58 62 64 61 60 65 68 65 63 62 62 62 64 64 62 72 70 70 70 66 70 70 66 60 58 60 62 59 58 66 63 64 66 62 58 (4-Q span) 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1984 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated b y © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p" r preliminary; and "NA", not available. Graphs of the$t scries are shown on paje 38. x This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc. Dun § Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. 3 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 76 SEPTEMBER 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change 1985 Diffusion index components January February March April June r May Augustp 961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURING ' (Hours) All manufacturing industries 40.6 40.1 40.4 40.2 40.4 40.4 40.3 40.5 Percent rising of 20 components , (32) (5) (85) (12) (75) (68) (25) (70) Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures 39.7 40.4 38.9 39.5 39.6 39.5 39.5 39.3 39.8 38.9 40.1 38.9 39.6 38.9 39.6 39.4 Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries 41.7 41.0 41,6 40,9 42.0 41.1 42.0 41.0 42.1 41.2 41.9 41.6 42.0 41.4 41.8 41.8 Fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical ... 41.4 41.7 40.9 41.1 41.1 41.6 41.1 41.2 41.1 41.4 41.3 41.6 41.3 41.3 41.2 41.5 Electric and electronic equipment. Transportation equipment 40.8 43.1 40.2 41.9 40.7 42.5 40.2 42.3 40.4 42.6 40.6 42.3 40.3 42.5 40.5 43.1 Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing 41.2 39.2 40.7 39.0 41.0 39.1 40.7 39.0 40.9 39.3 41.1 39.4 40.6 39.0 40.8 39.5 Food and kindred products .. Tobacco manufacturers 39.8 38.3 39.7 39.2 39.8 38.9 39.6 35.4 40.1 37.0 39.6 36.6 40.1 34.8 39.9 37.7 Textile mill products Apparel and other textile products ... 39.2 36.2 38.8 35.9 39.1 36.1 38.8 35.6 38.9 36.2 39.4 36.3 39.2 36.3 39.7 36.2 Paper and allied products. Printing and publishing ... 43.0 37.8 42.9 37.7 42.9 37.6 43.0 37.6 43.0 37.4 42.9 37.5 42.7 37.5 43.0 38.1 Chemicals and allied products ... Petroleum and coal products 42.0 43.2 41.9 43.1 42.1 43.3 41.9 42.0 41.9 41.7 42,0 42.6 41.9 42.5 41.9 42.7 Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products . Leather and leather products 41.5 36.8 40.5 36.4 41.1 37.1 40.9 37.0 40.9 37.1 41.2 37.0 40.6 36.9 40.5 37.5 99,839 + 102,971 + 106,780 104,370 + 107,916 (60) (62) (56) (47) Durable goods industries: Nondurable goods industries: 964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES ' (Millions of dollars) All durable goods industries + 105,447 - 102,467 99,544 (53) (35) (56) (47) 11,169 13,457 + 10,559 13,593 + - 10,736 13,426 + 10,604 14,206 + + 10,632 14,927 Percent rising of 34 components . + Primary metals Fabricated metal products,.. + + 10,803 13,582 - 10,015 12,979 + + 10*020 13,253 Machinery, except electrical . Electrical machinery + 15,255 17,935 + - 20,497 14,502 + 18,782 15,871 - 17,002 14,378 + + 17,332 14,947 + + 17,822 16,200 - 17,766 15,189 - 17,366 14,897 Transportation equipment Other durable goods industries + + 27,818 20,054 - 24,831 19,643 - 22,532 19,086 + + 23,975 19,858 + + 26,416 20,124 + + 28,300 20,296 - 26,730 19,875 + - 30,590 19,504 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. 1 Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of change for the six major industry groups shown here. SEPTEMBER 1985 77 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued 1985 Diffusion index components January February 966. 123.6 All industrial production Percent rising of 24 components 3 March Apri 1 May Julyr June August' 3 INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION ' (1977 = 100) + (50) 123.7 + 124.0 (52) (67) + 124.1 o (73) (46) o 124.4 124.1 124.4 (50) 124.8 (62) (67) (NA) 144.6 (NA) (NA) Durable manufactures: Lumber and products., Furniture and fixtures . 109.2 136.5 +• 109.1 139.0 109.5 139.2 Clay, glass, and stone products,. Primary metals 112.7 81.7 - 110.5 Fabricated metal products Nonelectrical machinery... 106.4 145.0 Electrical machinery Transportation equipment 176.0 120.4 + + Instruments Miscellaneous manufactures . 138.7 99.0 Foods Tobacco products 128.2 97.2 Textile mill products Apparel products.... 93.6 102.6 Paper and products Printing and publishing .. 128.3 150.4 Chemicals and products . Petroleum products 125.7 84.1 Rubber and plastics products.' Leather and products 145.9 69.1 + + 112.2 142.0 111.4 81.8 110.9 141.0 114.5 81.4 + 107.6 144.9 173.2 120.5 108.6 146.5 109.1 148.9 173.1 120.8 o 138.7 96.4 139.0 96.0 + + + + + 129.4 103.8 98.5 103.1 126.4 150.3 125.8 84.0 80.2 116.3 76.4 + + 114.0 141.9 115.8 78.3 + 108.3 149.1 - 107.4 145.9 168.9 120.7 + + 169.3 120.9 169.9 121.7 138.5 98.3 + o 139.9 98.3 + 116.5 78.3 + (NA) 78.9 + + 107.7 145.8 165.7 123.2 + 107.5 146.5 + + 165.9 126.8 140.7 97.8 o 140.7 96.3 + 141.2 (NA) Nondurable manufactures: + - 128.5 103.4 + - 99.4 101.3 + + + 130.8 98.4 131.4 95.7 + + 131.8 100.5 - 131.5 (NA) (NA) (NA) 99.0 100.2 100.0 100.3 + - 103.3 99.2 + + 104.0 100,9 (NA) (NA) 126.9 152.6 + 125.1 154.2 124.1 155.4 + + 127.1 156.3 + + 127.9 156.4 + (NA) 157.8 126.5 84.7 + 125.8 87.3 + + 126.7 87.4 - 126.4 87.0 + + 127.0 87.5 + (NA) 88.4 145.7 69.2 144.1 69.4 + + 144.9 69.9 + 144.3 71.0 + 74.5 121.5 83.6 131.9 81.2 128.5 108.2 119.8 106.8 118.7 106.5 118.5 144.6 70.5 145,5 71.3 (NA) (NA) 78.3 128.7 77.2 134.0 76.1 128.0 (NA) 127.0 106.9 118.7 106.7 117.9 107.0 117.8 106.5 (NA) Mining: Metal mining . Coal 70.5 118.5 Oil and gas extraction Stone and earth minerals . 110.7 118.5 + + - NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (—) = falling, preliminary; and "NA", not available. The "r" indicates revised; "p" x Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. 2 78 SEPTEMBER 1985 ItCIt CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Continued Q 1985 Diffusion index components January March February April May 967. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES, RAW INDUSTRIALS Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100) . . . . - 255.8 - (23) Percent rising of 13 components 253.1 - (38) 252.4 + 257.1 (58) (77) - June July August September1 2 252.0 - 242.9 - (23) (38) 240.7 - (38) 239.8 - (46) 238.0 (46) Dollars Copper scrap (pound).. (kilogram).. + 0.450 0.992 + 0.462 1.019 - 0.454 1.001 + 0.479 1.056 - 0.475 1.047 - 0.471 1.038 - 0.460 1.014 - 0,445 0.981 + 0.450 0.992 Lead scrap (pound)., (kilogram),. - 0.109 0.240 o 0.109 0.240 - 0.099 0.218 + 0.114 0.251 + 0.120 0.265 - 0.112 0.247 - 0.109 0.240 + 0.112 0,247 - 0.111 0.245 Steel scrap ..,.'....• Tin Zinc Burlap + 91.000 100.309 + 94.500 104.167 + 95.500 105.270 - 85,600 94.357 - 73.000 80.468 - 70.500 77.712 + 74.000 81.570 + 80.500 88.735 + 80.750 89.011 (pound)., (kilogram).. - 5.085 11.210 - + 5.225 11.519 + 5.528 12.187 +• 5,545 + 5.650 12.456 + 5.848 12.893 - 5.835 12.864 - 5.698 12.562 (pound)., (kilogram).. - 0.444 0.979 - 0.439 0.968 + 0.459 1.012 + 0.474 1.045 +. 0.475 1.047 - 0.466 1.027 - 0.426 0.939 - 0.414 0.913 - 0.406 0.895 (yard)., - 0.394 0.431 - 0.374 0.409 . - 0.356 0.389 + 0.362 0.396 - 0.358 0.392 - 0.323 0.353 - 0.306 0.335 - 0.289 0.316 - 0.261 0.285 (pound).. (kilogram).. - 0.610 1.345 - 0.599 1.321 + 0.612 1.349 + 0.632 1.393 - 0,614 1.354 - 0.610 1.345 - 0.608 1.340 - 0.592 1.305 - 0.579 1.276 (yard)., - 0.746 0.816 - 0.702 0.768 o 0.702 0,768 - 0.642 0.702 - 0.610 0.667 - 0.600 0.656 o 0.600 0.656 + 0.602 0,658 + 0.635 0.694 3.000 6.614 o 3.000 6.614 o 3.000 6.614 0.675 1.488 (U.S. t o n ) . , (metric ton).. (meter).. Cotton Print cloth (meter).. 5.040 11.111 12.225 Wool tops (pound)., (kilogram).. o 3.500 7.716 o 3.500 7.716 o 3.500 7.716 - 3.140 6.922 - 3.000 6.614 o 3.000 6.614 o Hides (pound).. (kilogram).. - 0.560 1.235 - 0.520 1.146 + 0.552 1.217 + 0.645 1.422 + 0.674 1.486. - 0.634 1.398 + 0.639 1.409 + 0.656 1.446 + Rosin (100 pounds).. (100 kilograms).. o 47.000 103.616 o 47.000 103.616 0 47.000 103.616 + 47.600 104.939 + 50.000 110.230 o 50.000 110.230 o 50.000 110.230 o 50.000 110.230 o 50.000 110.230 Rubber (pound).. (kilogram).. - 0.421 0.928 o 0.421 0.928 - 0.414 0.913 + 0.417 0.919 - 0.408 0.899 + 0.416 0.917 o 0.416 0.917 + 0.422 0.930 + 0.432 0.952 Tallow (pound).. (kilogram).. - 0.198 0.437 + 0.202 0.445 + 0.206 0.454 + 0.208 0.459 - 0.192 0.423 - 0.165 0.364 - 0.154 0.340 - - 0.142 0.313 0.144 0.317 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged; and ( - ) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p" preliminary; and "NA", not available. a The index is the average for September 1 through 24; component prices are averages for September 3, 10, 17, and 24, 2 Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. SEPTEMBER 1985 79 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES IA I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT 0 1 Year and quarter 200. Gross national product in current dollars b. Difference a. Total (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME 217. Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars c. Percent change at annual rate b. Difference a. Total (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. do).) c. Percent change at annual rate (Ann. rate, dollars) 213. Final sales in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 3,026.0 3,061.2 3,080.1 3,109.6 -1.9 35.2 18.9 29.5 -0.2 4.7 2.5 3.9 1,483.5 1,480.5 1,477.1 1,478.8 -17.8 -3.0 -3.4 1.7 3,173.8 3,267.0 3,346.6 3,431.7 64.2 93.2 79.6 85.1 8.5 12.3 10.1 10.6 1,491.0 1,524.8 1,550.2 1,572.7 3,553.3 3,644.7 3,694.6 3,758.7 121.6 91.4 49.9 64.1 14.9 10.7 5.6 7.1 3,810.6 r3,853.1 '3,909.4 51.9 r42.5 '56.3 5.6 r4.5 l 6.0 rl,671.3 *1,683.0 -4.6 -0.8 -0.9 0.5 6,408 6,381 6,349 6,341 1,490.3 1,484.5 1,483.5 1,503.4 12.2 33.8 25.4 22.5 3.3 9.4 6.8 5.9 6,379 6,510 6,602 6,681 1,507.5 1,530.9 1,549.3 1,565.4 1,610.9 1,638.8 1,645.2 1,662.4 38.2 27.9 6.4 17.2 10.1 7.1 1.6 4.3 6,829 6,933 6,943 6,998 1,579.3 1,618.5 1,614.6 1,645.6 1,663.5 1.1 r7.8 U1.7 0.3 rl.9 '2.8 6,989 r7,008 1,644.4 rl,663.0 1983 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1984 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . Q Year and quarter- GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME-Continued f Q 230. Total in current dollars Disposable personal income 224. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 225. Constant (1972) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 231. Total in 1972 dollars 232. Durable goods in current dollars 2 33. Durable goods in 1972 dollars 227. Per capita in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, dollars) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 2,132.0 2,156.8 2,195.8 2,237.5 1,052.8 1,054.8 1,057.9 1,067.6 4,548 4,546 4,548 4,578 1,931.3 1,960.9 2,001.3 2,046.1 953.7 958.9 964.2 976.3 239.4 241.6 244.5 255.0 138.5 138.8 139.3 145.2 2,261.4 2,302.9 2,367.4 2,428.6 1,073.1 1,082.0 1,102.2 1,124.3 4,591 4,619 4,694 4,776 2,070.4 2,141.6 2,181.4 2,230.2 982.5 1,006.2 1,015.6 1,032.4 259.4 276.1 284.1 299.8 146.8 156.2 159.6 167.2 2,502.2 2,554.3 2,606.4 2,644.5 1,147.6 1,165.3 1,176.5 1,186.7 4,865 4,930 4,965 4,996 2,276.5 2,332.7 2,361.4 2,396.5 1,044.1 1,064.2 1,065.9 1,075.4 310.9 320.7 317.2 326.3 173.7 178.6 177.0 182.9 2,654.8 r2,726.5 rl,205.3 1,181.9 4,965 r5,054 2,446.5 r2,493.0 1,089.1 rl,102.1 334.8 F339.2 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1984 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 187.0 rl90.1 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p" t preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 4 1 . '"Flash" estimate. SEPTEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENEWTURES—Continued Year and quarter 236. Nondurable goods in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 238. Nondurable goods in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) Q 237. Services in current dollars 239. Services in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 240. Total in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 241. Total in 1972 dollars 242. Fixed investment in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dot.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 243. Fixed investment in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 746.4 750.6 762.5 770.6 360.5 362.0 363.7 366.0 945.4 968.6 994.2 1,020.6 454.7 458.1 461.2 465.1 436.2 431.2 415.9 376.2 204.7 200.4 194.3 177.8 453.2 442.1 431.3 437.3 211.4 204.5 200.7 202.4 775.2 796.9 811.7 823.0 368.8 374.9 378.5 383.2 1,035.8 1,068.6 1,085.7 1,107.5 466.8 475.1 477.6 482.0 405.0 449.6 491.9 540.0 191.3 212.6 230.6 249.5 447.9 469.0 496.2 527.3 207.8 218.7 229.8 242.2 841.3 858.3 861.4 866.5 387.1 396.6 395.5 395.0 1,124.4 1,153.7 1,182.8 1,203.8 483.4 488.9 493.5 497.5 623.8 627.0 662,8 637.8 285.5 283.9 300.2 289.9 550.0 576.4 591.0 601.1 253.9 263.7 269.6 273.1 877.3 398.6 r403.2 1,234.4 rl,261.9 503.5 r508.7 646.8 r643,2 292.1 r289.5 606.1 r625.3 273.0 T281.2 266. State and local government in current dollars 267. State and local government in 1972 dollars 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1984 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . r891.9 • H • S I Year and quarter GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVEST.—Con. 245. Change in business inventories in current dollars 30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 260. Total in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 261. Total in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 262. Federal Government in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 263. Federal Government in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . -17.0 -10.9 -15.3 -61.1 -6.7 -4.0 -6.4 -24.6 630.9 633.7 656.3 681.0 290.2 287.0 292.8 300.6 249.8 245.0 -42.9 -19.4 -4.3 12.7 -16.5 -6.1 0.9 7.2 678.8 682.2 689.8 691.4 73.8 50.6 71.8 36.6 31.6 20.3 30.6 16.8 40.7 19.1 8.3 261.6 279.4 114.8 111.0 117.2 124.8 381.1 388.7 394.7 401.6 175.4 176.0 175.7 175.8 294.3 292.4 292.0 288.8 273.0 270.5 269.2 266.3 119.0 117.2 115.6 113.0 405.8 411.6 420.6 425.1 175.3 175.2 176.4 175.8 704.4 743.7 761.0 780.5 289.5 302.1 306.1 310.5 267.6 296.4 302.0 315.7 112.2 123.2 125.0 129.6 436.8 447.4 458.9 464.8 177.3 178.9 181.1 180.9 791.9 r810.9 310.7 313.5 319.9 r324.2 129.8 rl29.7 472.0 r486.7 rl83.9 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1984 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1985 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . rl7.9 180.9 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43. SEPTEMBER 1985 81 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT-Continued • Year and quarter 252. Current dollars 255. Constant (1972) dollars 280. Compensation of employees 257. Constant (1972) dollars 253. Current dollars (Ann. rate bil dol.) (Ann. rate bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) {Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 256. Constant (1972) dollars NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS 220. National in come in current dollars Imports of goods and services Exports of goods and services Net exports of goods and services 250. Current dollars Wtm 183 FOREIGN TRADE (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 27.7 35.5 6.6 6.3 34 34 25 24 9 1 7 1 359 366 346 321 4 3 3 7 152 .2 155 . 1 146 .6 136 .7 331 .7 330 .8 339 .7 315 .4 117 .3 121 .0 120 .9 112 .6 2,422 .3 2,443 .9 2,452 .4 2,468 .6 1,834.2 1,857.7 1,876.3 1,888.7 19.6 -6.5 -16.4 -29.8 22 13 11 2 9 6 9 0 328 328 342 346 5 1 0 1 138 . 2 ( ) 137 .0 141 .6 141 .0 308 .9 334 .5 358 .4 375 .9 115 .3 123 .4 129 .7 139 .1 2,527 .0 2,609 .0 2,684 .4 2,766 .5 1,921.3 1,962.4 2,000.7 2,055.4 -8 3 -11 4 -27 0 -13 .4 358 362 368 367 9 4 6 2 144 .9 144 .7 147 .4 147 . 1 410 .4 421 . 1 459 .3 423 .2 153 .2 156 .2 174 .4 160 .5 2,873 .5 2,944 ,8 2,984 .9 3,036 .3 2,113.4 2,159.2 2,191.9 2,228.1 360 7 r347 7 143 .7 435 .2 172 .1 rl37 .9 r441 .6 rl71 .8 3,076 .5 r3,106 .5 2,272.7 r2,305.9 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1984 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . -51.5 -58.7 -90.6 -56.0 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . -28 4 8 -74.5 r-33 r-94.0 iE rear and quarter 282. Proprietors' income with tVA andCCAdj1 1 284. Rental income of persons with CCAdj1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) Q NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS—Continued 286. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj1 288. Net interest (Ann. rate, bi . dol.) (Ann rate, bil. iol.) -290. Gross saving SAVING 292. Personal saving 295 Business saving (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 8 7 2 6 47 .8 48 .3 52 .9 57 .0 159 161 163 151 9 7 3 6 263 .6 268 .5 257 .7 253 .8 447 445 397 344 0 4 9 8 378.3 386.2 393.8 393.9 142.6 136.7 134.5 130.2 114. 7 116. 9 123. 3 131. 9 57 .7 59 .0 56 .2 60 .4 179 216 245 260 1 7 0 0 254 .2 254 .2 259 ,2 258 .9 393 4 414 7 455 2 485 7 417.0 441.4 469.7 486.4 128.0 96.7 154. 9 149. 8 153. 7 159. 1 61 .0 62 .0 63 .0 64 . 1 277 291 282 291 4 266 .8 282 .8 293 .5 293 .4 543 551 556 556 9 1 8 6 0 4 0 498.8 515!3 525.3 535.2 152.5 144'.8 164.1 163.0 159. 8 64 .8 r66 .7 292 3 *298. 5 287.0 r274 .7 550 7 r532. 6 543.5 r557.0 118.6 rl39.4 116. 107. 102. 117. 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 119.0 128.7 1984 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Thirri njiartor * « * • • I r l f l U LJUdllcF Fourth quarter . . . . rl60. 7 See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46. X IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 82 SEPTEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Q Year and quarter SAVING—Continued 298. Government surplus or deficit (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Q J SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME 293. Personal saving rate Percent of gross national product 235. Personal consumption expenditures (Percent) (Percent) 248. Nonresidential fixed investment (Percent) 249. Residential fixed investment 247. Change in business inventories (Percent) (Percent) 251. Net exports of goods and services (Percent) 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . -73.8 -77.6 -130.4 -179.2 6.7, 6.3 6.1 5.8 63.8 64.1 65.0 65.8 12.1 11.5 11.1 10.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -2.0 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.2 -151.7 -123.4 -133.5 -129.3 5.7 4.2 5.0 5.3 65.2 65.6 65.2 65.0 10.5 10.4 10.6 11.2 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.2 -1.4 -0.6 -0.1 0.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -107.4 -109.2 -133.0 -142.2 6.1 5.7 6.3 6.2 64.1 64,0 63.9 63.8 11.2 11.5 11.8 11.9 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 2.1 1.4 1.9 1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -2.5 -1.5 -111.4 4.5 r5.1 11.8 r64.7 4.1 4.1 1.1 0.5 -2.0 -2.4 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1984 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . r-163.8 64.2 | Q Year and quarter rl2.1 SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME—Continued Percent of GNP—Continued 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services Percent of national income 268. State and local government purchases of goods and services 64. Compensation of employees (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 283. Proprietors' income with IVA andCCAdj1 285. Rental income of persons with CCAdj1 (Percent) (Percent) 287. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj1 (Percent) 289. Net interest (Percent) 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 8.3 8.0 8.5 9.0 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 8.6 8.3 8.0 7.8 12.8 12.6 12.6 12.4 7.5 8.1 8.2 8.4 8.4 8.4 75.7 76.0 76.5 76.5 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.8 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.1 10.9 11.0 10.5 10.3 76.0 75.2 74.5 74.3 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.8 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.2 7.1 8.3 9.1 9.4 10.1 9.7 9.7 9.4 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.4 73.5 73.3 73.4 73.4 5.4 5.1 5.1 5.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 9.7 9.9 9.5 9.6 9.3 9.6 9.8 9.7 12.4 12.6 73.9 74.2 5.2 5.2 2.1 9.5 9.6 9.3 r8.8 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . • 1984 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter : Fourth quarter . . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47. *IVAf inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. ItO SEPTEMBER 1985 83 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Q Implicit price deflator for gross national product Year and month 310. Index (1972 = 100) PRICE MOVEMENTS 310c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 311. Index (1972 = 100) 311c. Change over 1-quarter spans' (Ann. rate, percent) Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food Consumer price index for atl urban consumers Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product 320. Index © (1967-100) 320c. Change over 1-month spans1 (Percent) 320c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 322. Index (1967 = 100) 322c. Change over 1-month spansl (Percent) 322c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 1983 5.0 January February March 212*9 April May June 214'.2 July August September 215*9 October November December 218*2 2.7 293.1 293.2 293.4 0.3 -0.1 0.1 1.4 2.3 3.4 288.5 288.9 290.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.4 2.8 2.2 3.9 295.5 297.1 298.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 3.6 4.4 5.0 291.3 292.1 291.5 0.4 0.3 -0.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 4.5 299.3 300.3 301.8 0.4 0.3 0.4 4.2 4.1 4.2 291.5 291.7 292.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 1.5 3.0 3.5 302,6 303.1 303.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 4.7 4.8 4.6 293.8 294.3 295.9 0.4 0.2 0.5 5.8 7.2 6.4 4.2 305.2 306.6 3fi7 ? 0.6 0.4 n ?. 4.8 4.5 299.9 302.0 qrn n 1.4 0.7 n n 5.4 4.6 A 4.1 308.8 309.7 310.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 3.6 3.7 3.8 301,6 301.0 301.5 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 1,8 1.5 1.7 4.0 311.7 313.0 314.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 302.6 304.2 304.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 2.5 3.3 3.8 3.5 315.3 315.3 315.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 3.4 3.3 3.5 305.4 305.9 307.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.6 316.1 317.4 318.8 0.2 0.3 0.5 3.7 3.8 3.7 307.7 309.3 309.2 0.2 0.5 0.0 2.2 1.6 0.8 320.1 321.3 322.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 3.7 3.4 308.7 •308.3 308.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.7 -0.3 322.8 323.5 0.2 0.2 308.8 308.9 0.1 0.0 220.'4 2.6 222.* 5 3.1 225^6 4.4 226*. 9 1984 January February March 220*6 April May June 222.'4 4.4 229*3 3.3 July August September 23i*6 ' 3.9 224*6 October November December 233'.9 2.8 226*. i 236*0 -5 o o 1985 January February March 229.1 April May June 236*6 July August September 5.4 238.1 r2.6 2 2 232*3 r3.7 r240*3 3.1 .... October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49. 1 Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. 2t 'Flash" estimate. 84 SEPTEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued . 330. Index © (1967 = 100) 330c. Change over 1-month spans'© (Percent) Producer price index, crude materials for further processing Producer price index, industrial commodities Producer price index, all commodities Year and month ^ H PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued 330c. Change over 6-month spans'© (Ann. rate, percent) 335. Index© 335c. Change over 1-month 1 spans (1967-100) © 335c. Change over 6-month 331. Index spans' © (Percent) (Ann. rate, percent) (1967 = 100) 331c. Change over 1-month spans' (Percent) 331c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 1983 299.9 300.9 300.6 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.5 0.8 1.1 313.9 313.9 313.5 -0.4 0.0 -0 1 -1.2 -0.9 0 1 316.3 318.0 320 0 -0.5 0.5 0 6 4.1 1.5 2 1 300.6 301.5 302.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 2.2 2.5 3.2 312.4 313.6 315.3 -0.4 0.4 0.5 1.7 2.2 2 3 322.2 321.0 321 1 0.7 -0.4 0.0 1.1 4.8 6 1 July August September 303.2 304.7 305.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 3.6 2.7 2.5 316.5 317.3 317.1 0.4 0.3 -0.1 3.9 3.0 2.0 318.1 325.5 329.6 -0.9 2.3 1.3 4.7 5.4 7.9 October November December 306.0 305.5 306.1 0.2 -0.2 0.2 3.2 2.8 3.8 318.5 318.3 318.4 0.4 -0.1 0.0 1.6 2.1 3.1 329.7 329.5 333 5 0.0 -0.1 1.2 11.7 2.9 4 6 January February March 308.0 308.9 311.0 0.6 0.3 0.7 3.5 4.0 3.4 319.1 320.6 321.9 0.2 0.5 0,4 2.6 3.1 3.4 336.2 330.2 337.1 0.8 -1.8 2.1 3.5 1.8 -1.9 April May June 311.3 311.5 311.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 2.5 1.2 -1-1 322.6 323.2 323,8 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.0 1.7 0.2 335.4 332.5 330.4 -0.5 -0,9 -0,6 -2.9 -1.7 -5.6 July August September 311.9 310.7 309 3 0.2 -0.4 -0 5 -1.2 -0.8 -1 0 323.9 323.3 322 2 0,0 -0.2 -0 3 0.5 0.4 -0 5 331.3 327.4 327 6 0.3 -1.2 0.1 -6.4 -2.0 -1.1 309.4 310.3 309.8 0.0 0.3 -0.2 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 323.4 323.8 323.0 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.7 0.2 324.5 329.1 328.5 -0.9 1.4 -0.2 -5.7 -6.8 -9.9 January February March 309.5 309.1 308.6 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 322.9 322.2 322.5 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.1 321.7 316.0 311.0 -2.1 -1.8 -1.6 April May June 309.3 309.9 309.1 0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -1.2 323.8 325.3 324.7 0.4 0.5 -0,2 0.9 0.9 r307.4 305.1 303.3 r-1.2 r-0.7 -0.6 July August September 309.0 307.2 0.0 -0.6 324.3 323.6 -0.1 -0.2 301.6 294.4 -0.6 -2.4 January February March April May June . .. 1984 ,. October November December : 1985 r-10.3 -14.1 -14.8 -12.1 -13.2 October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. 1 Changes are centered within the spans: SEPTEMBER 1985 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. 85 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PROOUCTIVITY-Continued R f l Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components Year and month 332. Index 332c. Change over 1-month spans1 PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued Producer price index, capital equipment 332c. Change 333. Index over 6-month spans' 333c. Change over 1-month spans' (Ann. rate, (1967 = 100) (Percent) percent) (1967=100) (Percent) Producer price index, finished consumer goods 333c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 334. Index (1967 = 100) 334c. Change over 1-month spans' (Percent) 334c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann, rate, percent) 1983 January February March April May June July . August September October November December 309.9 310.0 309.3 -0.4 -1.0 -0.6 0.1 284.1 285.0 285.8 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 308.5 309.6 311.1 -0.3 0.4 0.5 1.4 2.1 3.8 285.9 286.3 286.9 312.1 313.2 315.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 4.9 4.1 3.4 315.9 315.9 316.4 0.3 0.0 0 2 317.1 317.9 319.6 2.6 2.3 1.8 283.4 283.3 282.9 -0.9 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -0.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.3 2.4 1.8 282.8 283.6 284.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.3 287.3 288.4 288.4 0.1 0.4 0.0 2.2 2.0 2.0 284.5 285.5 286.1 -0.1 0.4 0.2 2.6 1.4 1.3 3.2 3.0 2 9 289.0 289.2 289 7 0.2 0.1 0 2 2.2 2.3 2 9 286.5 285.6 286 5 0.1 -0.3 3.0 2.8 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.7 3.2 3 2 290.5 291.7 292 5 0.3 0.4 0 3 3.7 3.2 3 1 288.8 289.5 291 2 0.8 0.2 0 6 3.1 3.5 2 7 320.1 320.9 321.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.4 1.5 0 3 294.3 293.8 294 1 0.6 -0.2 0 1 2.9 2.5 2 3 290.9 290.5 290 3 -0.1 -0.1 -fl 1 1.5 0.4 -0 9 320.9 320.3 320.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.5 294.7 295.3 295.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.4 0.6 291.0 290.1 289.9 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.7 0.3 0.6 320.4 320.9 320.7 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -0.9 295.1 295.9 295.0 -0.2 0.3 -0.3 1.1 2.2 2.5 289.9 290.9 291.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.4 320.4 319.0 318.5 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.8 -0.6 -1.2 296.3 298.6 299.5 0.4 0.8 0.3 3.1 2.6 4.0 290.6 290.3 290.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 1.4 1.2 0.1 319.1 320.0 318.8 0.2 0.3 -0.4 -1.6 -1.1 r299.,6 299.7 300.9 3.1 2.0 291.9 292.6 291.4 0.5 0.2 -0,4 1.4 0.7 317.8 317.3 -0.3 -0.2 292.6 291.3 0.4 -0,4 0.3 0.3 0 T 1984 January February March April May June July . . August September October November December 1985 January February March April May June July . . . August 300.9 301.6 rO.O 0.0 0.4 . 0.0 0.2 September October November Oecember See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. 1 Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. SEPTEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Q WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1 Year and month Current-dollar earning; 340. Index (1977-100) 340c. Change over 1-month, spans2 (Percent) Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector Real earnings 340c. Change over 6-month spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) 341. Index (1977 = 100) Current-dollar compensation 341c. Change over 1-month spans! 341c, Change over 6-month spans2 (Percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 345. Index (1977=100) over 1-quarter spans2 345c. Change over 4-quarter spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 345c. Change 1983 January . . February . . March 152.9 153.6 153.6 0.5 0.5 0,0 4.4 4.7 3.9 94.8 95.3 95.1 April May June 154.2 154.8 155.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 3.7 2.5 3.5 July August . . . September , 155.7 155.5 156.3 0.4 -0.1 0.5 October November December 157.2 157.3 157 9 January February March 0.3 0.5 159.7 -0.2 3.1 2.5 0.9 94.8 94.9 94.9 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 -1.8 -1.1 16116 3.9 3.3 3.7 94.9 94.4 94.6 0.0 -0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0 2 16ll9 0.6 0.1 0.4 3.8 4.3 3 8 94.9 94.8 95 0 0.3 -0.1 0 2 0.0 1.0 1 2 163. 7 158.6 158.7 159.2 0.4 0.1 0.3 3.7 3.3 3.2 94.9 94.9 95.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.5 0.5 165.*9 April May June 160.1 159.9 160 5 0.5 -0.1 0 3 3.0 2.6 3 2 95.5 95.0 95 2 0.3 -0.5 0 2 " 0.7 -1.4 -1 8 167^4 July August September 161.0 160.8 161.7 0,4 -0.1 0.6 1.8 2.9 3.6 95.2 94.2 94.3 0.0 -1.1 0.1 -2.9 -1.1 -0.8 16&\9 October November December 161.6 162.2 163 4 -0.1 0.4 0 7 2.5 4.0 3 3 94.1 94.5 94 9 -0.2 0.4 0 4 -1.5 1.2 0 6 17CK5 163.0 164.0 164.4 -0.2 0.6 0.3 4.0 3.2 94.5 94.7 94.5 -0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.6 -0;5 April May June 164.8 164.9 rl65.6 0.2 0.1 rO.5 94.4 94.3 r94.5 -0.2 -0,1 r0.3 July August . . . September 165.5 P165.5 r-O.l pO.O r94.3 p94.2 r-0.2 p-0.2 5.7 4.1 3.3 3*.9 2.3 3*.9 4.5 3!9 1984 5.4 4.*3 3.5 ili 3.7 4.0 3.8 3^9 1985 January February March r2.8 3.1 pi. 8 4.8 172.5 r-0.8 -0.3 p-1.2 3.2 173.8 October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50. 1 Adjusted for overtime (-in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts. 2 Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. ItCII SEPTEMBER 1985 87 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued Negotiated wage and benefit decisions Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector—Continued Year and month Real compensation 346.Index (1977-100) 346c. Change over 1-quarter spans] 346c. Change over 4-quarter spans' (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 348. Average first-year changes © (Ann. rate, percent) Output per hour, all persons, business sector 349. Average changes over life of contract © (Ann. rate, percent) 370. Index (1977 = 100) 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector 370c. Change over 1-quarter spans' 370c. Change over 4-quarter spans' (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) (1977 = 100) 3.4 101.6 3.1 103.6 3.5 104.1 3.3 104.4 2.7 105.2 3.2 106.6 1.1 106.3 0.3 106,9 1983 -1.6 5.3 January February March 98.7 April May June 98.5 July August September . . . 98.0 October November . . . December . . . 3.1 102.2 4.4 -1.0 103.6 5.0 2.8 4.3 -0.6 0.1 5.9 3.6 0.6 -1.8 2.1 1.4 1.5 104.3 4.9 1.4 3.1 -0.4 104.7 1984 5.1 O.I January . . February , March . . , 98.1 April May June 98.1 July August September .". , 98,1 October November . . , December . . . 98.1 4.7 0.1 -0.2 3.5 107.0 2.7 0.4 0.2 4.9 3.2 0.1 0.0 4.0 105.7 0.6 3.1 107.2 3.7 0.2 2.0 3.1 108.0 1985 January . ' . . . , February March 98.5 April May June 98.3 1.5 3.6 3.1 -3.9 106.9 -1.0 p3.8 p3.5 106,0 1.3 107.3 106.3 July August September . . . October . . November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50. 1 Changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. SEPTEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Q | CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS Civilian tabor force Year and month 441. Total 442. Civilian employment Number unemployed 37. Persons unemployed (Thous.) (Thous.) (Thous.) 444. Males 20 years and over (Thous.) 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers 448. Number employed part time for economic reasons (Thous.) (Thous.) 446. Both 445. Females 20 years and over sexes 16-19 years of age (Thous.) (Thous.) Civilian labor force participation rates 451. Males 20 years and over (Percent) 452. Females 20 years and over (Percent) 453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age (Percent) 1983 January February March 110,746 110,700 110,733 99,233 99,144 99,303 April May June 110,906 110,892 111,717 July August September October November December 11,430 5,587 5,737 5,620 3,990 3,950 3,895 1,936 1,869 1,915 9,802 9,915 9,747 6,179 99,590 99,634 100,444 11,316 11,258 11 273 5,669 5,657 5 408 3,751 3,750 3 861 1,896 1,851 2 004 9,656 9,521 9 382 6,021 5,989 5 945 111,707 112,184 112,264 101,173 101,589 101,983 10,534 10,595 10,281 5,186 5,129 5,016 3,481 3,567 3,513 1,867 1,899 1,752 8,934 8,948 8,733 111,914 112,150 112,237 102,042 102,702 103,029 9,872 9,448 9,208 4,801 4,592 4,382 3,359 3,225 3,227 1,712 1,631 1,599 112,320 112,724 112,906 103,294 103,888 104,123 9,026 8,836 8,783 4,273 4,139 4,048 3,191 3,135 3,148 . 113,202 113,722 113,619 104,402 105,162 105,391 8,800 8,560 8,228 4,087 3,909 3,807 July August September 113,868 113,629 113,764 105,377 105,148 105,394 8,491 8,481 8,370 October November December 114,016 114,074 114,464 105,649 105,932 106,273 January February March 114,875 115,084 115,514 April 53.9 53.0 53 0 78.2 78.2 78 2 53.0 52 9 78.4 52.9 78.4 78 6 52.7 CO 1 5,858 5,958 5,974 78.7 78.6 78.5 52.9 53.3 53.5 53.7 54.9 53.6 8,315 7,924 7,679 5,726 5,884 5,677 78.4 78.4 78.3 53.3 53.2 53.3 52.8 53.3 53.5 1,562 1,562 1,587 7,532 7,321 7,301 5,719 5,697 5,465 78.3 78.3 78.3 53.1 53.3 53.5 53.4 53.8 53.9 3,161 3,127 2,972 1,552 1,524 1,449 7,331 7,056 6,578 5,520 5,377 5,549 78.3 78.3 78.3 53.6 54.1 53.8 54.2 54.3 54.3 3,884 3,836 3,817 3,130 3,214 3,044 1,477 1,431 1,509 7,010 6,933 6,931 5,482 5,384 5,449 78.3 78.3 78.3 54.0 53.9 53.6 54.5 53.0 8,367 8,142 8,191 3,731 3,725 3,759 3,173 3,027 2,952 1,463 1,390 1,480 6,932 6,768 6,811 5,483 5,413 5,596 78.3 78.3 78.3 53.9 53.9 54.0 53.7 53.5 54.1 106,391 106,685 107,119 8,484 8,399 8,396 3,798 3,774 3,731 3,161 3,126 3,179 1,525 1,499 1,485 6,963 6,954 6,821 5,389 5,077 5,400 78.2 78.2 78.2 54.4 54.5 54.8 55.2 55.7 56.0 115,371 115,373 114,783 106,945 106,960 106,370 8,426 8,413 8 413 3,807 3,651 3,891 3,197 3,231 3,148 1,422 1,531 1,374 6,852 6,797 6 741 5,374 5,617 5 257 78.2 78.1 55.3 55.8 77 Q 54.7 54.5 54 6 R1 115,314 115,299 106,862 107,172 8,451 8,127 3,767 3,600 3,125 3,192 1,559 1,335 6,964 6,644 5,350 5,443 77.9 77.9 54.5 54.6 55.3 53.5 11,513 11,556 6,456 6,303 53.0 52.8 52.5 1984 January February March April May June 54.2 1985 May June July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 51. SEPTEMBER 1985 8 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES DEFENSE INDICATORS RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES Federal Government1 Year and month State and local government' Advance measures of defense activity 500. Surplus or deficit 501. Receipts 502. Expenditures 510. Surplus or deficit 511. Receipts 512. Expenditures (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.} (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dot.) 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (Mil. dol.) 525. Defense Department prime contract awards 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (Mil. dol.) 1983 January February March -185.7 619.8 805.6 34.1 458.3 424.2 21,340 19,502 20,444 16,908 13,042 7,351 122,628 123,803 125,570 9,555 5,014 6,361 April . May . June . -167.3 649.3 816.7 43.9 473.5 429.6 19,332 19,554 21,518 10,132 10,111 10,814 126,165 126,532 129,720 63578 5,609 7,412 July August September . . . -180.9 640.2 821.1 47.4 486.1 438.7 19,409 20,489 20,388 11,017 10,727 10,921 131,172 130,829 133,056 7,115 5,496 5,804 October November . . . December . .. -180.5 655.0 835.5 51.2 495.0 443.8 17,201 24,242 24,204 2,820 16,140 9,463 131,130 139,062 141,820 6,792 8,506 7,038 January February March -161.3 686.4 847.6 53.9 509.6 455.7 21,145 22,667 23,445 15,089 14,273 13,779 142,169 145,648 150,842 6,503 6,884 11,713 April . May . June . -163.7 704.3 868.0 54.5 520.6 466.1 19,185 20,342 19,781 11,398 9,459 11,644 149,369 149,452 151,538 5,139 6,648 6,834 July August September . . , -180.6 706.2 886.8 47.6 524.6 477.0 20,988 23,098 22,191 10,101 12,647 11,441 152,828 156,271 156,950 7,600 8,090 7,301 October November . , . December . . , -197.8 721.9 919.7 55.6 539.7 484.0 20,821 28,892 26,686 12,901 25,552 7,017 159,226 168,321 172,010 5,167 10,091 7,448 -165.1 771.4 936.5 53.7 545.6 491.9 22,492 20,377 20,346 13,405 12,805 10,088 174,180 173,704 174,338 11,061 4,708 6,240 r-214.1 r733.9 r948.0 r50.3 r558.0 r507.7 22,655 25,140 29,513 8,716 14,605 11,052 174,867 178,000 179,337 6,130 8,773 rll,238 p31i641 pll>761 pl82,074 (NA) r9,594 plO,795 1984 1985 January . February March . . April May June July . . . . August . . September CNA) (NA) October . . November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53. x Based on national income and product accounts. 90 SEPTEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued 1 J DEFENSE INDICATORS—Continued National defense purchases Intermediate and final measures of defense activity Year and month 557. Index of industrial production, defense and space equipment 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products/ book value 561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (1977 = 100) 580. Defense Department net outlays, military (Mil. dol.) 588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (Mil. dol.) 570. Employment, defense products industries (Thous.) Defense Department personnel 577. Military on active duty © (Thous.) 564. Federal purchases of goods and 578. Civilian, services, direct hire national employment © defense (Thous.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP (Percent) 1983 January February March 137.8 139.2 140.4 16,585 16,455 16,758 100,987 100,757 101,896 17,058 16,772 16,804 5,174 5,244 5,222 1,344 1,346 1,342 2,120 2,122 2,127 1,024 1,028 1,030 194^7 6.1 April May June 141.6 142.7 143.6 16,826 17,175 17,331 103,198 103,529 105,568 17,529 16,854 17,189 5,276 5,278 5,373 1,347 1,352 1,356 2,123 2,120 2,116 1,029 1,040 1,049 199^3 o!i July August . September 144.9 145.0 146.3 17,321 17,813 17,436 107,018 107,084 107,453 16,975 18,455 17,463 5,665 5,430 5,435 1,366 1,350 1,372 2,113 2,115 2,123 1,053 1,052 1,026 20CL9 e!6 October November December 146.4 145.2 145.5 17,278 17,450 17,837 108,627 111,449 112,754 17,781 17,329 18,726 5,618 5,684 5,733 1,374 1,377 1,383 2,120 2,126 2,124 1,034 1,040 1,045 207^2 6\6 January February March 148.8 151.3 151.9 17,861 18,190 18,746 113,575 114,624 120,647 18,448 17,801 17,794 5,682 5,835 5,690 1,391 1,398 1,408 2,130 2,135 2,140 1,042 1,043 1,046 213.4 ... 6.0 April May June 155.6 156.0 157.2 19,017 19,514 20,035 119,870 120,758 121,672 18,525 18,609 18,953 5,916 5,760 5,920 1,415 1,427 1,440 2,138 2,141 2,143 1,049 1,061 1,071 22CL8 S.I July August September 158 5 160.7 163 4 20,734 21,315 22,141 123,219 125,276 126,496 18,405 19,181 19,469 6,053 6,033 2,142 2,144 • 2,138 1,079 1,074 1,043 220.3 6.0 6,081 1,450 1,459 1,470 October November December 163.5 163.3 165.3 22,551 22,581 22,517 125,340 129,092 129,775 18,687 20,152 19,899 6,323 6,339 6,765 1,480 1,486 1,498 2,138 2,141 2,138 1,058 1,065 1,067 231.6 6.2 165.3 167.3 169.0 23,091 23,405 134,455 132,467 131,990 18,762 20,058 20,465 6,380 6,695 6,718 1,511 1,522 1,532 2,146 2,147 2,148 1,065 1,069 1,072 233^9 oil April May June 170.-1 H71.2 rl72.8 24,006 23,962 24,721 131,769 133,958 6,352 6,584 r7,221 1,540 1,550 1,078 1,089 1,099 r6.3 rl,561 2,148 2,149 2,151 r241.'i rl37,975 19,597 20,603 20,554 July August September rl73,5 P175.0 25,317 (NA) r140,742 pl44,552 r21,498 p22,487 r6,827 p6,985 p i , 566 (NA) 2,156 p2,157 1,110 (NA) ' 1984 1985 January February March October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55. SEPTEMBER 1985 91 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS MERCHANDISE TRADE 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery 612. General imports Year and 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products 616. Imports of automobiles and parts month (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dpi.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 1983 January February March 17,232 16,312 16,690 3,128 2,985 2,811 3,644 3,359 3,499 20,127 18,804 19,528 4,481 3,183 3,603 2,329 3,019 2,676 April May June 16,095 15,655 16,959 2,891 2,715 2,977 3,513 3,433 3,265 19,914 21,446 20,916 3,749 5,432 4,215 2,746 2,819 2,823 July August September , . . 16,486 16,582 17,257 3,072 973 322 655 290 718 21,828 22,714 22,451 4,622 4,597 4,929 2,936 2,813 2,636 October November . . . December . . . 17,033 17,063 17,298 979 109 3,175 689 686 3,683 24,333 23,115 22,976 4,818 4,459 3,997 3,233 3,415 3,801 January February March 17,889 17,208 17,906 3,457 3,198 3,336 4,009 3,848 3,764 26,204 26,420 26,948 4,515 4,660 5,393 3,684 3,751 3,680 April May June 17,520 17,978 17,705 3,030 3,245 2,715 3,811 3,976 3,746 28,074 26,012 25,276 6,000 5,113 4,694 3,838 3,635 3,683 July August September . , . 19,154 18,123 18,210 3,236 3,022 3,153 3,790 3,878 3,640 31,334 26,866 28,409 4,674 4,021 4,261 3,947 3,773 4,302 October 18,411 18,395 19,142 2,799 3,242 3,314 4,007 3,905 4,128 26,783 27,331 25,933 4,007 4,637 4,298 3,600 3,817 3,732 January February March 19,401 17,853 18,446 2,945 2,842 2,436 4,247 970 160 28,297 27,985 28,129 4,005 3,833 3,411 033 999 243 April May June 17,779 17,414 17,438 2,624 2,092 2,167 970 073 952 28,295 28,685 29,425 4,936 5,237 4,842 4,350 4,073 4,932 July August September . . . 17,412 (NA) 2,158 3,615 26,630 (NA) (NA) (NA) 3,342 (NA) 4,161 (NA) 1984 November . . , December . . . 1985 October November . . . December . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 56. SEPTEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued E | GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS) Merchandise, adjusted' Goods and services Year and month 667. Balance (Mil. doL) 668. Exports (Mil. dol.) 669. Imports (Mil. dol.) 622. Balance (Mil. dol.) 618. Exports (Mil. dol.) Income on investment 620. Imports (Mil. dol.) 651. U.S. investment abroad (Mil. dol.) 652. Foreign investment in the United States (Mil. dol.) 1983 January February March -1,454 31,411 82,865 -9,621 49,227 58,848 17,935 12,283 -7,163 81,712 88,875 -14,754 48,862 63,616 19,172 12,856 July August September -9,091 85,068 94,159 -17,230 50,399 67,629 20,985 13,588 October November December -14,228 85,396 99,624 " -20,407 52,257 72,664 19,932 13,893 January February March -16,852 90,764 107,616 -25,569 53,753 79,322 23,502 15,268 April May June -22,261 88,996 111,257 -25,649 54,677 80,326 20,895 17,277 July August September -29,624 91J24 120,748 -32,507 55,530 88,037 21,769 18,5i3 October November December -21,382 91,539 112,921 -24,557 56,355 80,912 21,445 17,442 January February March r-27,153 r88,939 rll6,092 r-29,532 r55,707 r85,239 rl8,868 rl6,33I April May June p-28,459 p88,846 pll7,305 rp-33,001 rp53,245 rp86,246 p22,104 pl6,522- April May June : 1984 1985 July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 57. 1 Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports). I M J I SEPTEMBER 1985 93 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Year and month 47. United States, index of industrial production (1977^100) 721. OECD1 European countries, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 728. Japan, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 725. West Germany, index of industrial production (1977-100) 726. France, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 727. Italy, index of industrial production (1977-100) 723. Canada, index of industrial production (1977 = 100) 1983 January February March 102.5 103.3 104.2 102 104 104 120.0 119.5 122.2 99 101 102 102 101 101 100 100 99 105.4 107.6 105.6 97.6 97.9 98.3 April May June 105.6 106.9 107.8 102 104 104 122.0 122.0 123.2 102 102 105 101 104 102 100 100 100.6 103.1 100.1 99.8 99.8 102.2 July August September . . . 109.8 111.6 113.7 105 104 105 123.4 126.8 129.0 102 103 104 104 104 102 101 101 101 103.8 101.5 104.0 101, 104. 106.4 October . . November December 114.4 114.8 115.5 104 107 107 127.5 130.0 131.3 104 106 107 101 104 104 101 101 105 102.4 109.3 103.7 107.8 108.7 110.5 January February March 118.4 119.3 120.1 108 108 107 131.5 135.4 134.2 106 108 105 105 104 105 105 104 103 105.7 104.3 108.1 111.0 108.0 110.0 April May June 120.7 121.3 122.3 106 107 rlO5 135. 137. 138, 105 106 95 102 105 103 rlO3 rlO2 rlO3 103.8 107, 108, 109, 110, 111 July August September . , . 123. 123. 123. 108 109 109 139, 140, 139.4 109 107 108 109 109 105 102 102 103 107.1 108.7 110.0 115 114.5 112.2 October November , . , December . . . 122.7 123.4 123.3 109 109 rlO9 143.3 143.4 142.7 109 110 109 107 104 102 103 103 104 107.3 106.1 106.6 112.2 114.1 115.0 123.6 123.7 124.0 108 rllO 111 143.0 142.8 140.8 110 109 110 100 rlO5 107 rlO5 rlO5 rlO7 102.5 111.5 111.8 114.2 113.8 rll3.9 April May June 124.1 rl24.1 rl24.4 109 rllO pill 144.5 rl48.2 P146.1 110 rill pll3 103 105 plO3 rlO8 108 plO8 107.0 rlO8.3 pill.5 114,6 rll4.2 P115.9 July August September . . . rl24.4 P124.8 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 1984 1985 January February March October November . . . December . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pafe 58. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 94 SEPTEMBER 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Q United States Year 320. Index © and month (1967 = 100) West Germany Japan 320c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 738. Index © (1967 = 100) CONSUMER PRICES 738c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 735. Index © (1967 = 100) France 735c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 736. Index© (1967-100) United Kingdom 736c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann, rate, percent) 732. Index © (1967 = 100) 732c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 1983 1.4 0.7 306.6 305.5 307.5 2.1 1.2 201.2 201.3 201.2 1.9 1.2 390.1 392.9 396.5 10.8 10.0 523.5 525.8 526.7 5.0 308.6 312.0 309.7 1.1 1.9 1.0 201.7 202.2 202.9 2.4 3.6 4.1 401.8 404.5 406.9 9.8 9.9 10,3 534.1 536.4 537.7 5.0 5.4 6.1 299.3 300.3 301.8 4.2 4.1 4.2 308.3 307.4 311.4 2.0 1.6 2.3 203.6 204.3 204.9 3.6 3.2 9,1 8.9 3,8 410,4 412.8 416.0 8.6 540.6 543.0 545.4 6.5 6.3 6.6 302.6 303.1 303.5 4.7 4.8 4.6 314.2 312.2 311.4 2.6 4.0 3.8 204.9 205.2 205.7 3.0 2.2 2.2 419.2 420,9 422.4 8.3 8.0 7.1 547.3 549.2 550.7 5.3 4.8 4.4 January February March 305.2 306.6 307.3 4.8 4.5 4.3 312.3 314.2 315.1 2.7 2.4 1.5 206.6 207.1 207.3 2.6 2.5 1.9 425.4 428.0 431.0 6.6 6.6 6.9 550.4 552.6 554.4 4.1 4.0 3.7 April May June . . . 308.8 309.7 310.7 3.6 3.7 3.8 315.9 318.2 315.6 2.5 -0.1 0.8 207.7 207.8 208.6 1.6 1.3 0.9 433.6 436.2 438.4 6.8 7.0 7.2 561.8 563.9 565.3 3.6 5.1 5.1 311.7 313.0 314.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 316.2 313.4 318.5 1.6 1.9 3.8 208.2 207,8 208.0 1.6 1.7 2.1 441.5 443.7 445.9 7.7 7.4 6.8 564.7 570.0 571.1 5.7 5.9 5.4 315,3 315.3 315.5 3.4 3.3 3.5 321.0 319.0 319.6 3.2 3.0 2.5 209.2 209.6 209.8 2.7 3.4 4.3 449.0 450.3 451.2 6.4 5,9 5.8 574.6 576.4 575.9 316.1 317.4 318.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 321.3 318.7 320.2 2.2 1.3 1.4 211.0 211.9 212.6 3.4 3.4 2.4 453.5 455.8 459.0 5.5 5.5 6.0 578.0 582.7 588.1 8.2 8.3 8.5 320.1 321.3 322.3 3.7 3.4 321.9 323.3 323.5 (NA) 212.9 213.1 213.3 1.6 (NA) 462.2 464.5 466.4 5.8 (NA) 600.6 603.4 604.7 7,3 616 , January February March 293.1 293.2 293.4 April May June 295.5 297.1 298.1 3.6 4.4 July August September October November December 2.3 3.4 1.7 11.9 •3/5 3.2 3/8 . 1984 July August . September ... October . November December ! 6'. 5 ' 5.6 7,1 1985 January February March April May June . July August September 322.8 323.5 (NA) 212.9 (NA) 468.2 (NA) 603.5 605.1 October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. KCII SEPTEMBER 1985 95 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued Q j Italy Year and month 737.Index © E CONSUMER PRICES—Continued 19. United Canada 737c. Change over 6-month spans1 733. Index © 733c. Change over 6-month spans1 States, index of stock prices, 500 common | STOCK PRICES 748. Japan, index of stock prices © 745. West Germany, index of stock prices © 746. France, index of stock prices © 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices © index of stock prices © 743. Canada, index of stock prices © (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) (1967-100) (1967 = 100) 747. Italy, stocks © (Ann. rate, percent) (1967-100) (Ann. rate, percent) 602.7 610.5 616.0 14.3 14.2 13.8 312.5 313.9 317.1 4,2 3.4 4.2 156.9 159.7 165.2 533.3 530.8 544.2 126.0 131.9 143.9 159.1 165.0 179.1 371.9 381.6 388.3 95.5 109.1 118.7 210.0 216.6 219.5 April May June 622.2 628.2 632.2 14.0 13.2 12.7 317.1 317.9 321.5 5.2 5.9 4.7 171.6 178.5 181.0 559.7 573.4 583.3 157,0 158.6 159.5 188.7 200.4 196.8 410.4 403.7 426.1 115.8 111.6 110.3 240.0 251.8 260.2 July, August . . . . . . . . . September 638.5 641.1 649.4 12.4 11.8 11.7 322.9 324.5 324.5 5.6 5.0 4.9 181.6 176.7 181.8 598.7 606.4 619.7 169.0 166.9 164.7 206.1 220.2 224.9 418.9 431.8 422.6 112.9 120.5 118.4 264.3 267.3 272.0 October. November December 660.4 667.0 670.3 11.1 11.5 11.5 326.5 326.5 327.5 5.4 5.1 4.6 182.4 179.7 178.8 621.0 621.5 638.6 173.4 176.7 179.2 225.3 239.5 247.6 411.2 424.1 432.6 111.6 112.7 112.8 251.1 273.6 268.6 January . . . . . . . . . February March 678.3 685.8 690.6 11.1 10.9 10.9 329,2 331.1 331.9 4.3 4.7 3.4 181.0 171.1 171.3 687.6 699.6 736.1 185.3 182.3 178.4 275.9 263.4 261.1 457.2 457.2 485.3 125.3 128.7 128.5 259.5 259.5 260.0 April May June 695.4 699.6 703.8 10.0 9.4 8.1 332.7 333.3 334.7 3.1 2.3 3.0 171.4 170.3 166.6 776.0 744.6 711.2 177.9 178.0 175.8 285.4 277.1 272.3 495.0 489.6 468.7 124.9 122.5 119.6 252.0 P245.6 p242.6 July August September 705.9 708.0 713.0 6.8 6.4 6.8 336.6 336.6 336.9 2.5 3.4 4.2 164.3 178.9 180.7 701.3 728.8 738.6 167.2 172.0 178.3 256.7 274.3 287.0 447.5 478.6 497.0 121.4 128.7 127.6 P234.0 P252.5 p256.6 October November December 720.1 724.4 729.5 7.2 7.7 8.9 337.5 339.7 339.9 4.3 5.2 4,4 179.3 180.9 178.9 760.5 774.7 804.7 185.2 185.1 187.4 287.9 286.0 285.2 503.7 525.9 551.2 127.4 130.5 130.5 P257.1 p259.2 P256.0 736.8 744.2 749.4 10.7 11.1 10.4 341.3 343.5 344.3 5.3 4.5 4.0 186.7 196.8 195.2 839.5 851.9 900.4 195.1 202.0 213.4 294.3 307.9 317.8 578.1 585.1 592.3 147.2 164.1 165.0 P264.7 P281.5 P282.5 756.1 760.6 764.4 10.0 9.4 345.7 346.5 348.3 3.4 2.9 196.5 201.1 205.5 880.3 890.6 915.0 212.5 218.7 234.2 328.9 336.4 337.2 592.0 607.0 591.3 164.4 188.7 199.0 P284.5 P289.2 P294.1 209.4 204.8 P199.8 941.6 rp925.1 P925.6 234.8 rp237.3 P252.3 321.9 rp315.1 p316.9 568.4 597.0 P610.2 212.9 rp221.6 p236.2 P299.1 rp301.1 P295.4 (1967 = 100) (1967 = 100) 1983 January February March ........ 1984 1Q0K 130J January . . . February March ., , April May June July August . September .. 766.7 768.2 349.5 350.1 October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. 96 SEPTEMBER 1985 APPENDIXES B. Current Adjustment Factors 5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance . . 13. New business incorporations 1 Mar. Apr. May June Aug. Sept. Oct. 145 7 101 0 90 3 92 7 83.1 87 5 105 7 86.3 81 4 95 9 105 6 125 2 105.3 106.0 99.1 103.3 98.5 94.0 105.0 104.7 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations2 33 Net change in mortgage debt 13 91.3 103.1 95.7 -1229 -2514 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars'* 1985 July Feb. Jan. 108.8 1003 1376 939 -584 99.9 100.0 100.3 100.2 100.1 99.9 99.9 99,9 446 608 92.7 Dec. 96 9 95.7 100.0 815 -1691 Nov. 439 255 100.2 99.8 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred1 119.0 96.2 104.1 98.9 87.8 80.9 88.5 86.9 117.7 112.7 105.4 101.8 525. Defense Department prime contract awards 105.5 96.6 114.5 94.3 86.4 84.9 75.7 78.6 191.6 80.5 100.1 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligationsoutstanding . . 103 3 103.2 103.1 103.7 101.4 98.9 97.0 93.8 98.6 99.7 100.1 100.1 570. Employment, defense products industries . . 100.2 100.0 100.0 580 Defense Department net outlays1 99.8 97.0 99.9 100.0 90.9 99.1 100.7 99.3 100.0 100.0 100,1 100.5 95.8 102.8 100.0 104.3 98.3 99.9 100.4 95.6 101.8 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products . 106.7 105.2 115.0 103.0 100.9 94.8 83.5 83.0 91.8 100.8 108.8 106.3 99.9 102.8 105.1 102.7 95.5 99.5 106.0 101.0 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products1 . . . .... 616. Imports of automobiles and parts 1 .... 93.8 90.7 110.3 99.2 91.9 86.0 109.4 84.1 106.1 90.2 84.3 98.1 107.2 118.4 104.3 97,9 98.1 95.6 98.3 114.9 113.3 107.0 115.0 102.8 95.3 98.4 87.8 87.9 104,3 96.4 94.3 NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis rather than by the source agency. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST whenever they are available. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, THE X-ll VARIANT OF THE CENSUS METHOD II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM. factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Quarterly series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter. 3 These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. These factors are computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program. **These factors apply only to the loans portion of this series. 97 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Year Jan. 114. 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... I960.,, 1961... 196 2 . . . 1963... 1964. . . 1965... 1966 . . . 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972.. . 1973.. . 1974... 1975.. . 1976... 1977 . . . 1978.., 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 1.39 1.69 2.04 1.21 1.26 2.46 3.21 2.60 2.84 4.44 2.30 2.75 2.91 3.53 3.83 4.76 5.08 6.13 7.91 4.49 3.40 5.31 7,76 6.49 4.96 4.60 6.45 9.35 12.04 14.72 12.41 7.81 8.93 Mar. Feb. May June July 1952 . . . 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962. . . 1963... 1964.., 1965... 1966... 1967 , . . 1968,.. 1969.., 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973,.. 1974... 1975... 1976,.. 1977... 1978... 1979, . . 1980.., 1981.. . 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 1.55 1.77 1.94 0.95 1.75 2.66 3.26 1.84 3.41 2.95 2.38 2.78 3.16 3.55 5.10 7.01 5.20 7.13 5.33 7 ,04 4.06 8.02 7.75 6.16 5.28 5.15 7.07 9.26 8.13 14.70 11.91 9.12 10.13 4.01 8.67 8.74 6.46 5.15 5.50 7.04 9.45 9.26 15.61 9.01 9.39 10.49 4.65 8.48 8.36 6.38 5,08 5.77 7.84 10.18 10.32 14.95 8.20 9.05 10.41 4.72 7.16 7.24 6.08 4.93 6.19 8.13 11.47 11.58 13 .87 7.75 8.71 9.97 4.77 7.87 7.58 5,47 4.81 6.16 8.79 11.87 13.89 11.27 8.04 8.71 8.79 5.06 7.36 7.18 5.50 4.35 6.06 9.12 12.07 15.66 10.93 8.01 8.96 8.16 3.43 5.64 7.60 5.87 4.95 4.62 6.41 9.36 13.46 14.37 12.89 8.08 9.13 5.51 6.24 6.75 4.21 3.75 6.61 8.27 5.40 5.17 4.83 6.48 9.37 10.05 14.83 12.36 6.42 9.84 2.56 2,71 2.98 2.52 2.92 3.21 3.66 3.75 4.26 3.84 4,02 3.94 4.04 4.16 4.25 4.79 4.99 5.09 6.32 6.63 5.56 5.70 6.41 7.30 7,28 6.70 6.94 7.82 8.68 10.94 14.14 11 .48 11 .26 11.97 2.61 2.66 2.70 2.42 2.61 2.59 2.66 2.57 2.83 2.54 2.87 3.20 2.86 2.57 2.89 3.30 2.79 2.59 2.91 3.40 3.76 4.11 3,91 3.98 3.89 4.07 4.16 4.28 4.70 5.19 5.24 6.27 6.59 5.46 5.69 6.25 7.22 7.29 6,65 7.08 8.07 9.44 11.20 14.13 10.51 11.21 11.66 3.70 4.12 3.93 3.98 3.87 4.11 4.12 4.34 4.74 5.44 5.36 6.52 6.24 5.46 5.51 6,30 6.93 7.21 6.62 7.16 8.16 9.80 11.83 12.68 10.18 11 .32 11.25 3.80 4.27 3.88 4.06 3.87 4.14 4.14 4.43 4.65 5.36 5.66 6.81 5.97 5,62 5.63 6.35 6.77 7 .17 6.38 7.24 8.36 9.58 11.89 12.88 10.33 11.44 11.21 2.84 2.61 2.75 2.89 3.27 3.26 3.92 4.22 3.83 4.06 3.91 4.16 4.15 4,56 4.44 5.24 5.88 6.56 5.82 5.65 6.10 6.64 6.70 6,91 7.01 7.58 8.44 11.15 12.01 13.45 10.44 11.54 2.61 3.07 2.52 2.82 2.99 3 .43 3.15 4.06 4.11 3.80 3.89 3.98 4.16 4.14 4.58 4.71 5.30 5.91 6.82 5.88 5.66 6.23 7.05 6.97 6.89 7.10 7.85 8.44 10.02 12.66 12.94 10.35 12.69 3.01 2.49 2.93 3.13 3.63 3.57 4.16 3.83 3.97 3.98 4.01 4.14 4.20 4.78 4.93 5.07 6.14 6.65 5.75 5.63 6.60 7.27 7.09 6.79 6.98 7.93 8.48 10.43 13.60 12.20 11.26 12.34 2 !83 2,57 2.89 3.30 3 .53 3 17 5 4.17 3.91 4.01 3.88 4.11 4.14 4.35 4.70 5.33 5.42 6.53 6.27 5.52 5.61 6.30 6.97 7.22 6.55 7.16 8.20 9.61 11.64 13.23 10.34 11.32 11.37 2^4 2.55 2.84 3.08 3 .47 3.43 4.08 4.02 3.90 3.95 4.00 4.15 4.21 4.65 4.85 5.26 6.12 6.58 5.74 5.64 6.31 6.96 7 .00 6.78 7.06 7.89 8.74 10.81 12,87 12.23 10.84 11.99 5.54 6.49 3.72 6.05 7.99 5.54 5.05 4.61 6.32 9.46 15.53 13.48 12.49 8.30 9.44 3.72 6.29 8.23 5.69 4.88 4.54 6.31 9.49 14.00 13.63 12.82 8.25 9.6 9 3.65 6.35 8.43 5.32 5.18 4.94 6.43 9.58 9.15 16.30 12.15 8.19 9.90 3.87 7.19 8,14 5.19 5.44 5.00 6.71 9.05 7.00 14.56 12.11 8.82 9.94 116 . AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 5.38 7.00 3.83 3.26 Annual 4.36 5.01 5.01 5.92 7.72 3.81 3.64 5.62 6.06 3 .25 3,92 4.08 3.78 4.01 3.93 4.16 4.15 4.63 4.45 5.39 6.05 6.39 5.71 5.66 6.20 6.81 6.77 6.88 7,20 7.63 8.45 11.87 12.15 12.98 10.34 11.90 1.53 1.68 2.20 0.81 1.51 2.60 3.16 1.02 3.02 3.09 2.33 2.72 2.94 3 .48 3 ".88 4.60 3.66 IV Q 4.08 5.34 4.76 5.49 7.19 3.90 3.85 5.36 6.15 3.26 3.92 4.22 3.81 4.09 3.92 4.14 4.16 4.61 4.47 5.16 5.66 6.44 5.84 5.67 6.14 6.54 6.66 6.92 7.16 7.60 8,43 11.55 12.23 13,63 10.60 11.44 1.40 1.64 2.05 1.08 1 .26 2.38 3.17 1.84 2.80 3.94 2.38 2.74 2.91 3 .54 3^90 4.63 4.53 5.06 6.14 7.26 III Q 4.03 5.39 3.93 4.29 5.14 6.08 6.71 3.24 3.91 4.37 3.89 4.08 3.89 4.15 4.14 4,43 4.40 5.18 5,74 6.86 5.92 5,62 5.96 6.56 6.68 6.93 6.68 7.51 6.43 10,03 11.65 13.73 10.37 11.29 II Q 3.84 4.93 1 .64 1.88 2.09 0.89 1.88 2.61 3.40 1.69 3.36 2.29 2.40 2.84 3.32 2.47 2.70 2.89 2.53 2.78 2.93 IQ 1.73 2.13 1.63 1.17 2.56 3.23 3.10 2.61 4.57 2.27 2.62 2.86 3.52 1.59 1.82 2.10 0.71 1.62 2.33 3.16 0.96 3.24 2.40 2.27 2.94 3.14 2.40 2.71 2.83 2.62 2.78 2.85 Dec. 1.61 1.86 1.43 0.95 2.22 3.00 3.34 2.76 4.21 2.38 2.46 2,80 3.52 1.50 1.70 2.23 0.65 1.43 2.53 3.32 0.88 3.25 2.64 2.36 2.72 3.00 2.39 2.74 2.80 2.69 2.68 2.88 Nov. 1.61 1.78 1.40 0.99 2.26 2.96 3.59 2.79 4.12 2.43 2.35 2,75 3.45 1,58 1.71 2.20 0.78 1.49 2.65 3.04 1.05 2.85 3.39 2.29 2.69 2.92 3 .53 3.93 Oct. © 1.65 1.79 1.88 1.01 2.09 2.85 3.58 2.48 4.00 2.49 2.30 2.79 3.38 3 .53 3.91 5.36 1.52 1.62 2.18 1.01 1.62 2.61 3.11 1.13 2.96 3.24 2.33 2.74 2.91 115 . YIELD ON LONG-TERM TREASURY BONDS (PERCENT) 1951,.. Sept. Aug. 1.42 1.66 2.08 1.05 1.34 2.31 3,14 1.35 2.85 3.44 2.42 2.72 2.90 3.55 3.94 1.39 1.57 2.02 0.98 1.16 2.37 3.16 1.56 2.71 3.95 2.41 2.75 2.92 4.55 4.97 6.16 7.16 3.77 3.18 5.56 7,06 5.58 4.85 4.66 6.46 9.27 12.81 14.90 13.78 8.13 9.03 Apr. DISCOUNT RATE OH HEW ISSUES OP 91-DAY TREASURY BILLS (PERCENT) 1.63 1.83 2.02 0.87 1.86 2.60 3.38 1.71 3.53 2.39 2.32 2.86 3.28 3.51 3!86 5.05 4.35 5.23 7.05 6.38 5.05 4.24 8.39 8.28 6.33 5.17 5.47 7.32 9.63 9.24 15.09 9.71 9.19 10.34 1.65 1.92 1.49 1.04 2.35 3.06 3.34 2,79 4.30 2.36 2.48 2.80 3.50 3.69 4!16 5.25 4.79 5.58 7.32 5.36 4.23 4.85 7.46 7.33 5.68 4.70 6.14 8.68 11.80 13.71 12.02 7.93 8.79 8.97 3." 95 4.68 4.33 5.34 6.69 6.44 4.34 4.07 7.03 7.87 5.82 5.00 5.26 7.22 10.04 11.61 14.08 10,72 8,62 9.57 ® 2.56 2 ,64 2.97 2.48 2.82 3.07 2.63 2 . 57 3.11 2.54 2.81 2.97 2.65 2.61 3.13 2.55 2.82 2.§3 2.63 2.61 3.02 2 .47 2.91 3.00 2.57 2.70 3.02 2.48 2.95 3.17 3.12 4.01 4.18 3.80 3.89 3.97 4.20 4,15 4.55 4.51 5.2 8 5.84 6,53 5.75 5.74 6.11 7.04 7.05 6.73 7.13 7.74 8.44 10.83 12.62 12.84 3.14 4.08 4.16 3.7 3 3.88 3.97 4.16 4.14 4.57 4.76 5.40 5.85 6.94 5.96 5.64 6.25 7.09 7.01 7.01 7.17 7.87 8.5 5 9.82 12.96 12.67 10.19 12.17 10.21 12.89 3.20 4.09 3.98 3.88 3.90 4.00 4.13 4.14 4.63 4.86 5.23 6.05 6.99 5.94 5.59 6.32 7.02 6.86 6.92 6.99 7.94 8.32 9.40 12.39 13.32 10.64 13,00 3.36 4.11 3.66 3.90 4.02 4,01 4.13 4.15 4.75 4.86 5.09 6.07 6.57 5.91 5.59 6.53 7.18 6.69 6.85 6.98 8.10 8.35 9.83 13.05 12.97 11.10 12.82 3.60 4.10 3.79 4.00 3.98 3.99 4.14 4.19 4.80 4.95 5.04 6.02 6.75 5.78 5.59 6.85 7.33 7,11 6.82 7.01 7.88 8.42 10.53 13.61 12.15 11 .42 12.23 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD YIELD ON HEW ISSUES OF HIGH-GRADE CORPORATE BONDS (PERCENT) © 1951.. . 2.74 2.78 2.90 3.06 2.98 3.24 3.20 3.01 2.91 3.09 3.36 3.22 2.81 3.22 3.04 3 ! X7 3.00 1.99 3.20 + .28 3.62 + .58 5.34 • .63 + .56 + .22 en 4^45 4.93 5.53 6.57 7.29 9.00 7.63 7.36 7.61 8.32 9.17 8.97 7.96 8.70 9.47 11.65 14.01 16.34 12.04 12.65 3.26 2.88 3,09 3.07 4 .13 3.53 2.86 3.11 3.55 4.23 3.80 2.90 3.15 3.48 4.41 3.82 2.91 3.11 3.56 4.81 3.59 2.94 3.14 3.56 3.46 2.94 3.41 4.02 3.60 3.01 3.27 3.96 3.09 2.84 3.15 3.94 3.13 2.94 3.17 4.29 3,23 2,87 i .27 • .26 3.28 2.87 3.07 3.17 3.55 2.96 3.27 3.85 3.15 2.88 3.20 4,16 3.42 2.90 3.17 3.68 4.60 5.24 4,43 4.53 4,25 4.39 3.41 2.74 3.14 3.25 4.18 4.53 4.98 4.37 4.41 4.28 4.45 3.09 3.14 3.72 2.90 3.12 3.53 3.04 1953!" 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957.. . 1958... 1959... I960... 1961... 1962... 1963.. . 1964. 196 5 ! ! . ' 1966... 1967.. . 1968... 1969... 1970,.. 1971... 1972... 1973.. . 1974.., 1975., . 1976.. . 1977.. . 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981.. . 1982... 1983... 1984.. . 1985... 4,60 4.97 4.57 4.37 4.35 4.92 4.95 4.67 4.32 4.36 5.00 4.91 4.82 4.30 4.32 4.95 4.79 4.81 4.41 4.90 4.65 4.79 4.39 5.28 4.64 4.72 4.28 5.37 4.75 4.60 4.26 4.35 5.14 4 .82 4.52 4.23 t .44 .27 t.94 t.58 .28 3.74 4.57 5.19 4.48 4.50 3.65 4.84 4.94 4.69 4.33 4.27 5.04 4.6 9 4.77 4.36 4.42 5.26 4.84 4.57 4.26 4.02 4.93 4.92 4.63 4.36 4 .49 4 .49 4 .48 A0 4.45 4.49 4.46 4.49 4^5 5.09 5.35 6.57 7.33 8.84 7.54 7.57 7.67 8.21 8.64 8.71 8.18 8.70 9.52 13.23 14.60 16.35 12.11 12.80 5.33 5.55 6.80 7.76 9.00 7.62 7.53 7,75 8.60 9.46 8.73 8.33 8.70 9.65 14.08 14.49 15.72 11,81 13.36 5.38 5.59 6.79 7.54 9.09 7.76 7.77 7.70 9.04 9.61 8.68 8.30 8.88 9.69 13.36 15.00 15.62 11.58 5.55 5.90 7.00 7.62 9,53 8.25 7.61 7.69 9.39 9.76 9.00 8.38 9,00 9.82 11.61 15.68 15.37 11.24 13.64 14.41 5.67 6.06 7 .02 8.04 9.70 8.15 7.63 7.73 9.59 9.27 8.90 8.08 9.15 9.51 11.12 14.97 15.96 11.90 14.49 5.81 6.06 6.91 8.06 9.09 8.24 7.72 7.97 10.18 9.56 8.76 8.12 9.27 9.47 11 .48 15.67 15.75 12.46 14.25 6,04 6.30 6.54 8.05 9.08 8.14 7.59 8.45 10.30 9,71 8.59 8.06 6.83 9.57 12.31 16.34 14.64 12.89 13.54 6.14 6.33 6.69 8.36 9 .00 7.90 7.72 8.10 10.44 9.89 8.37 8.11 8.78 9.87 12.74 16.97 13.78 12.68 13.37 6 .04 6.53 6.88 8.46 9.14 7,72 7 .66 7 .97 10.29 9.54 8.25 8.21 9.14 11.17 13.17 16.96 12.63 12.54 13.02 6.11 6.87 7 .00 8.94 8.97 7.67 7.46 7 .95 9.22 9.48 8.17 8.26 9.30 11.52 14.10 15.53 11.89 12.86 12,40 5.98 6.93 7 .28 9.22 8.13 7,54 7.50 8.09 9.47 9.59 7.90 8.39 9.30 11.30 14.38 15.55 12.15 12.87 12.47 5.12 5.48 6.65 7.46 8.95 7.60 7.49 7.68 8.38 9.16 8.80 8.16 8.70 9.55 12.99 14.37 16.14 11.99 12.94 5.53 5.85 6.94 7.73 9.44 8.05 7.67 7.71 9.34 9.61 8.86 8.25 9.01 9.67 12.03 15.22 15.65 11.5? 14.18 6.00 6.23 6.71 8.16 9.06 8.09 7.68 8.17 10.31 9.72 8.57 8.10 8.96 9.64 12.18 16.33 14.72 12.68 13.72 6.04 6.78 7.05 8.87 8.75 7.64 7.54 8.00 9.66 9.54 8.11 8.29 9.25 11.33 13.88 16.01 12.22 12.76 12.63 4 .47 4.61 5.67 6.08 6.84 8.06 9.05 7.85 7.59 7.89 9.42 9.51 8.59 8.20 6.98 10.05 12.77 15.48 14.68 12 .25 13.37 NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. (SEPTEMBER 1985) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar. 117. Apr. May June 1951... 1952... 1953... 1.61 2.09 2.43 1.58 2.07 2.55 1.74 2.08 2.65 1.94 2.04 2.65 2.00 2.06 2.78 2.19 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... I960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964.. . 1965... 1966... 1967.. . 196 8 . . . 1969... 1970... 1971... 197 2 . . . 197 3 . . . 2.40 2.50 3.18 2.91 3.42 3.72 3.40 3.34 3.10 3.22 3.06 3.52 3.54 4.29 4.85 6.65 5.36 5.12 5.05 2 .44 2 .44 3.00 3.02 3.36 3.60 3.31 3.21 3.15 3.14 3.09 3.64 3.52 4.31 4.98 6.36 5.23 5.28 5.13 2.44 2,57 3.10 3.06 3.30 3.56 3.45 3.14 3.05 3.28 3.18 3.72 3.55 4.54 5.26 6.03 5.17 5.31 5.29 2.41 2.70 3.13 2.96 3.39 3.56 3.50 3.06 3.10 3.28 3.15 3.56 3.60 4.34 5.19 6.49 5.37 5.43 5.15 1975!!! 1976... 1977.,. 1978... 1979... 6*82 7.07 5.87 5.71 6.47 7.35 9.68 13.28 9.50 9.63 6.39 6.94 5.89 5.62 6.31 8.16 10.10 12.97 9.58 9.64 6.74 6.92 5.89 5.61 6.33 9.17 10.16 12.82' 9.20 9.93 4.08 4.26 4.34 4.75 4.56 4.73 4.08 4.27 4.34 4.69 4 .56 4.70 5.36 5,56 5.58 4.12 4.29 4.34 4.64 4.59 4.68 5.35 5.51 5.57 5.89 5.68 5,48 5.45 5.45 5.82 5.65 5.47 5.45 5.45 6.00 6.35 6.83 8.05 9.20 7.32 7.45 7.63 8.66 1980 , , . 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 2.06 2.38 2.75 2.09 2.38 2.60 2.34 2.51 2.95 3.42 3.45 3.62 3.53 3.42 3.02 3.20 3.25 3.40 3.94 4.30 4.49 6.09 6.39 5.06 5,18 5.05 2.05 2.38 2.62 2.3 2 2.46 3.16 3.37 3.32 3.55 3.40 3.41 3.04 3.30 3.18 3.46 3.86 4.34 4.60 6.30 5.93 5.20 5.02 5.18 7.39 6.30 5.64 6.13 7,08 7,43 6.29 5.49 6.19 7.30 Q YIELD OH MUNICIPAL BONDS, IO-BOND AVERAGE (PERCENT) 1955 . . . 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1961!!! 1962... 196 3 . . . 196 4 . . . 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969.. . 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975.. 1976" . 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 5*58 5.60 6.00 5.69 5.52 5.45 5.45 5.70 6.62 6.81 2.13 2.99 2.02 2.24 2.90 2,38 2.68 3.27 2.92 3.58 3.60 3.43 3.11 3.11 3.20 3.17 3.65 3.89 4.54 5.33 7.00 5.90 5.30 5.14 2.41 2.54 3.41 2 .97 3.72 3.55 3.52 3.26 3 .21 3.20 3 .24 3.77 3.96 4.50 5.76 6 .96 5.95 5.34 5.18 2.54 2.65 3.40 3.09 3.71 3.50 3.52 3.28 3.22 3.18 3.27 3.95 4.02 4.33 5.75 6.53 6.06 5.41 5.40 2.60 2.80 3.54 3.36 3.58 3.34 3.52 3.23 3.13 3.19 3.24 4.12 3.99 4.21 6.00 6.20 5.82 5.30 5.48 2.01 2.30 2.90 2.31 2.58 2.94 3.54 3.54 3.78 3.42 3.53 3.11 3.20 3.23 3.35 4.12 4.12 4.38 6.26 6.25 5.37 5.36 5.10 6.95 6.60 5.73 5.80 6.29 8.63 10.62 12.59 9.05 9.96 6.97 6.87 5.75 6.03 6.25 7.59 10.78 11.95 9.11 10.49 6.95 6.87 5.62 6.22 6.13 7.63 10.67 12.45 9.52 10.67 7.07 6.79 5.63 6.28 6.13 7.17 6.61 5.62 6.12 6.20 7 .44 6.51 5.51 6.09 6.52 4.19 4.29 4,27 4,29 4'.62 4.60 4.71 5.35 5.43 5.58 7.* 49 7.55 8.99 9.06 8.45 9.18 10.24 12.60 14.23 17.38 12.87 13.08 6 .46 6.78 7.99 9.29 7.46 7.56 8.54 9*04 8.55 10 .24 14*. 7 9 17.10 12.65 13.20 .. 8.65 9.35 10.26 14.63 15.04 16.41 12.68 13.68 5.77 5.64 5.46 5.45 5.45 . r.64 2.08 2.54 2.06 2.23 2.93 2.07 2.38 2.66 1.95 2.19 2.7 3 2.36 2.57 3.22 3.04 3.34 3.68 3.40 3.47 3.07 3.27 3.13 3.54 3.86 4,43 4.82 6.82 5.46 5.21 5.05 5.12 2.43 2.50 3.09 3.00 3.36 3.63 3,39 3.23 3.10 3.21 3.11 3.63 3.54 4.38 5.03 6.35 5.25 5.24 5.16 2.40 2.64 3.27 2.95 3.56 3.57 3.48 3.14 3.14 3.23 3.19 3.66 3.82 4.46 5.43 6.82 5.74 5.36 5.16 2*57 2.80 3.49 3.33 3.69 3.42 3.52 3.21 3.18 3.20 3.29 4.06 4.04 4.31 6.00 6.33 5.75 5.36 5.33 2.51 3.11 3.28 3.37 3.62 3.44 3.43 3.04 3.26 3.19 3.47 3.89 + .36 + .64 &.40 5.93 5.16 $.08 5.12 2,39 2.48 2.76 3.28 3.16 3.56 3.52 3.46 3.16 3.17 3.21 3.26 3.81 3.94 4.45 5.72 6.35 5.48 5.26 5.19 7.31 5.94 5,57 6,50 7.22 6*65 6.98 5.88 5.65 6.37 5.96 6.96 6.78 5.70 6 .02 6.22 7.95 10.69 12 .33 9.23 10.37 4.25 4.29 11.14 12.28 9,53 10.42 12.26 11.23 9.72 9.99 12.92 10 .66 9.58 10.10 12.83 9.69 9.66 10.25 11.89 10.06 9.75 10.17 12.91 9.96 9.89 9.95 4.59 4.63 4,78 5.32 5.39 5,64 4.29 4.30 4.67 4.57 4.63 4.81 5.35 5.37 5.71 4.31 4.30 4.7 4 4.56 4.64 4.81 5.38 5.35 5.75 4.31 4.30 4.82 4.56 4.67 4.87 4.30 4.30 4.86 4.56 4.70 4.92 4.27 4.31 4.82 4.56 4.27 4.32 4.81 4.56 4.26 4,32 4.78 4,56 4.09 4.27 4.34 4.69 5.37 5.80 5.50 4.95 5.63 5.57 5'.6*0 5.59 5.68 5,58 5.68 5.57 5.69 5.56 5,45 6.32 6 ,44 5.44 6.45 6.51 7.52 8.35 9.16 7.89 7.54 7.89 9.46 5.46 5.44 6.51 6.53 7.42 8.36 9.11 7.97 7.54 8.19 9.85 5.46 5.45 6.58 6.60 7.35 8.36 9.07 7.92 7.55 10.30 5.46 5.46 6.63 6.63 7.28 8.40 9.01 7.84 7.56 9.18 10.38 8*99 8.77 9.96 10.46 12.39 16.76 16.29 14.23 14.58 8.93 8.77 9.81 10.58 13.54 17.96 14.61 13.78 14.21 8.82 8.74 9.81 11.37 14.26 18.55 14.03 13.55 13.99 8.06 9.11 7.75 7.53 7.79 9.46 8'.82 8.64 9.44 9*74 13*45 15.91 16.31 12,50 13.80 119 . 9.03 10.61 11.99 16.33 16.19 12.41 15.01 9.05 8.77 10.49 11 .85 16.31 16.73 12.96 14.91 1 .37 2.44 2.93 2.72 2.48 3.99 1.45 2.14 2.91 3.48 3.90 4.42 4.94 4.60 6.30 8.98 4.14 3.50 5.94 9.65 7.13 4.87 4.61 6.70 10.07 13.82 19.08 13.22 8.68 9.56 1 .29 2 .50 3.00 1.67 2.40 3.97 2 .54 2.37 3.00 3.48 3.98 4 .60 5.00 4.72 6.64 8.98 3.72 3.29 6.58 8.97 6.24 4.77 4.68 6.78 10.06 14.13 15.93 14.78 8.51 9.59 1.35 2.50 2.96 1.20 2.80 3.84 2.02 2.70 2.98 3.43 4.04 4.65 4.53 5,05 6.79 7.76 3.71 3.83 7.09 9.35 5.54 4.84 4.69 6.79 10.09 17.19 14.70 14.68 8.77 9.91 1.43 2.62 3.00 1.26 2.96 3.92 1.50 2.69 2.90 3.47 4.09 4.67 4.05 5.76 7,41 8.10 4.15 4.17 7.12 10.51 5.49 4.82 4.73 6.89 10.01 17.61 15.72 14.94 8.80 10.29 FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (PERCENT) 1.43 2.75 3.00 0.63 2.90 3.85 1.98 2.29 3.00 3.50 4.10 4.90 3.94 6.12 8.67 7.94 4.63 4.27 7.84 11.31 5 .22 5.29 5.35 7.36 10 .24 10.98 18.52 14.45 8.63 10.32 1.62 2.71 3 .00 0.93 3.39 3.32 1 .73 2.68 2.99 3.50 4.04 5.17 3.98 6 .07 8.90 7 .60 4.91 4.46 8.49 11 .93 5.55 5.48 5.39 7.60 10 .29 9.47 19.10 14.15 8.98 11.06 \. 7 4 7.38 >,18 5.57 j.27 7.20 1.62 1 J.54 J.9O S.77 10.12 7.05 5.64 5.68 5.02 S.52 b.ou 11.33 11.66 9.51 10.10 1.68 2 .74 2.99 0.68 3.44 3.23 1.16 2.71 3.02 3.42 4.09 5.30 3.79 6.02 8.61 7.21 5.31 4.55 10.40 12.92 6.10 5.31 5.42 7.81 10.47 9.03 19.04 12.59 9.37 11.23 4.70 4.59 5.63 5.60 6.23 5*55 5.58 5.70 5.55 5.70 5.54 5.69 5.53 5.90 5.67 5.45 5.49 5.45 5.51 6.81 6.77 7.36 8.48 8.90 7.62 7.57 8.86 5.45 5.45 6.48 6,41 ... 5.45 5.62 6.77 6.81 .7.50 8.62 8.40 7.59 7.56 8.78 9.51 5*61 5.45 5.45 5.45 8.45 8.81 10.04 12.41 14.47 15.98 12.82 13.23 12.90 8.28 8.96 10.23 12.24 14.08 16.43 12.80 13.25 12.99 8.55 8.81 9.98 14*38 17.43 12.99 13.23 13.43 6.81 7.47 7.58 8*16 9.12 7.67 7.52 7.80 9.36 8.97 8*55 10.25 14.69 16.96 12,73 13.32 12.43 16.18 16.41 12.62 14.57 4.27 4.32 4.80 4.56 5.41 1 5.68 5.57 5.45 5.46 5,45 6.57 6.59 7.35 8.37 9.06 7.91 7.55 4.23 4.30 4.60 4.65 4.87 4 .77 5.34 5.40 5.64 5.61 5.60 6.23 6.65 7.29 8.48 8.97 7.75 7.57 8.97 10.13 4.31 4.30 4,81 4.56 5.62 5,59 5*49 5.70 5.54 5.45 5.45 5.54 ... 5,60 5.46 5.45 5.47 6.74 7.38 8.53 8.76 7,65 7.57 8.87 6.56 7*53 10.18 8.91 8.76 9.86 10.80 13.40 17.76 14.98 13.85 14.26 8.43 8,86 10.08 14.31 16.61 12.87 13.24 13.11 16.31 15.30 13.11 13.82 © AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 1.90 2 .74 3.24 1.53 3.50 2.98 2.00 2.93 3.49 3.50 4.12 5.53 3.89 6.03 9.19 6.61 5.57 4.80 10.50 12.01 6.14 5.29 5.90 8.04 10.94 9.61 17.82 10.12 9.56 11.64 1 .07 2.18 2.95 3.50 1 .76 3.76 2.60 1.88 2.90 3.48 3.45 4.01 5.40 4.00 5.78 9.15 6.29 5.55 4.87 10.78 11.34 6.24 5.25 6.14 8.45 11.43 10,87 15.87 10.31 9.45 11.30 NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. 7*23 6.64 5.59 6.16 6.28 8.58 12,11 11 .39 9.61 10.17 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 1951 . . . 1952 . . . 1953 . . . 1955... 1956.. . 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974.,. 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... Annual 2.04 2 .08 2.81 8.23 9.98 13.02 9.43 9.73 6.29 6.94 8.06 9.10 7.37 7.50 7.73 9.17 IV Q AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 2.15 2.15 2.98 (PERCENT) 1951.. . 1952... 1953... 1954... III Q II Q 0 .90 2.24 2.96 3.50 1.80 3.98 2.47 2.26 2.90 3.50 3.36 4 .08 5.53 . 3.88 5.92 9.00 6.20 5.20 5.04 10.01 10.06 5.82 5.03 6 .47 8.96 13.77 12.81 15.08 9.71 9.48 9.99 0 .91 2.35 2.88 3.22 2.27 4.00 2.44 2.62 2.94 3.48 3.52 4.10 5.77 4.12 5.81 8.85 5.60 • •91 .06 11 >.O3 .45 .22 *.95 .51 .76 13.18 15.85 13.31 9.20 9.34 9.43 1 .26 2.48 2.94 2,98 2.42 3.99 1.98 2,33 2.93 3.38 3.85 4.32 5.40 4.51 6.02 8.97 4.90 4 .14 5.33 9.95 8.53 5.20 4.65 6.56 10 .03 13,78 18.90 12,37 8.95 9.47 8.38 1.34 2.48 .96 .86 .56 .93 .00 1.40 1.96 J.46 .97 + .56 + .82 t.79 6.58 8 .57 3.86 3.54 6.54 9.32 6.30 4.83 4.66 6.76 10 .07 15.05 16.57 14.23 8,65 9.69 1.49 2.69 3.00 0.94 3 .08 3.70 1.74 2.55 2.96 3.49 4.08 4.91 3.99 5.98 8.33 7 .88 4.56 4.30 7.82 11 .25 5.42 5.20 5.16 7.28 10.18 12.69 17.78 14,51 8 .80 10.56 1.92 2.81 3.24 1.32 3.57 2.94 1.68 2.85 3.33 3.46 4.07 5.41 3.89 5,94 8.9 8 6.70 5.48 4.74 10.56 12,09 6,16 5.28 5.82 8.10 10.95 9.84 17.58 11.01 9.46 11.39 1.02 2.36 2.93 3.23 2.16 3.99 2.30 2.40 2.92 3.45 3.58 4.17 5.57 4.17 5.92 8.9V 5.57 4.75 5.14 10.00 9.35 5.41 4.88 6.51 9.58 13.58 15.85 13.59 9.29 9.43 9.27 1.78 2.73 3.11 1 .57 3.30 3.22 1.96 2.68 3.18 3.50 4.07 5.11 4.22 5.66 8.21 7.17 4.66 4.44 8.74 10.51 5.82 5.05 5.54 7.93 11.19 13.36 16.38 12.26 9.09 10.22 (SEPTEMBER 1985) 99 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Feb. Jan. Mar. Apr, May June 1951... 1952... 1953.,. 1954.. , 1955.., 1956... 1957... 1958. .. 1959. .. I960... 1961... 1962.. . 1963.. . 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970,, . 1971... 1972... 1973.,. 1974... 1975.. . 1976.. . 1977 .. . 1978... 1979.. . 1980.. . 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984.., 1985.. . 58.7 55.5 59.7 55.6 64.1 67.0 6 5.4 62.2 71.4 72.9 70.9 78.8 81.6 87.2 94.5 99.9 97.4 104.4 112.2 107.5 108.6 119.2 132.4 128.7 107,7 126.1 134,5 141.0 147.7 141.4 142.1 135.1 145.2 164.5 58.2 55.6 59.8 56.1 65.2 66.7 65.3 61.6 72.3 72.1 71.4 79.9 82.4 88.2 94.8 100.8 97.0 105.5 112.1 106.6 110 .2 120.7 134.1 128.0 107.6 128.0 136.5 142.8 147.5 140.4 140.4 135.7 147.4 166.5 910C. 1951.. , 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956. . . 1957 . . . 1958... 1959.. . 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963., . 1964.. . 1965.. . 1966. . . 1967... 1968,.. 1969.. . 1970., . 1971.. . 1972.. . 1973.. . 1974.. . 1975... 1976... 1977.. . 1978.. . 1979... 1980... 1981.. . 1982.. . 1983... 1984... 1985.., 25.5 2.2 12.9 4.4 20 . 8 -3.5 -10.4 1.9 24.7 -4.8 8.9 0.0 9.3 7.1 10,7 10.1 13.2 0.0 7.8 -16.2 15.5 12,9 9.5 0.0 -15.3 37.5 0.0 -11.2 4.2 8.0 -7.3 -9.3 43.4 8.4 17.3 1951 . 1952. 1953. 1954. 1955. 1956. 1957. 1958. 1959. 1960. 1961. 1962. 1963. 1964. 1965. 1966. 1967. 1968. 1969. 1970. 1971. 1972. 1973. 1974. 1975. 1976. 1977. 1978. 1979. 1980. 1981. 1982. 1983. 1984. 1985. m.9 122.2 134.2 127.8 107.8 128.8 138,4 144.9 149.3 137.4 141 .7 134.7 150.2 167.2 56.7 55,4 59.7 56.7 66.1 67.4 64.8 62.2 74.0 70.9 73.9 79.6 83.9 89.3 95.0 101.5 97.1 104.7 112.7 104.5 112.9 123.0 133.4 126.1 111.0 129.3 138,5 146.3 146.4 133.4 144.6 136.0 152.5 168.1 56,3 55.9 59.1 57.3 66.5 66.3 65.0 63.4 74.2 71.0 74.8 78.7 84.7 90.2 95.6 100.2 97.9 105.4 112.2 105.1 113.7 122.9 133.5 125.5 113.4 130.5 138 146 147.6 130.9 144.5 136.2 154,4 168.2 55.1 57.1 58.1 57.9 66.7 66.0 65.3 64.7 73.7 71.1 75.7 77.9 84 89 95.3 99.4 99.2 106. 111. 105. 113. 123. 133. 123. 115. 131. 139.8 146.9 146.5 132.0 143.2 135.5 157.3 166.7 Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. IQ II Q 54.9 58.7 55.8 60.9 67.1 66.4 63.5 69.4 72.7 71.2 77.5 80.0 86.3 92.8 97.0 96.7 102.5 110.3 110,7 104.4 115.5 129.4 131.0 113.5 122.0 132.2 141.9 147 . 9 141.7 142.4 136.9 138.6 162.4 164.2 54.9 58.9 55. 62.3 67.5 66 . 4 62.7 70.4 71.9 70.8 78.5 80.8 86.5 93.1 98.0 96.5 103.2 110.8 109.5 105.0 116.5 130.3 131.1 111.2 122.4 133.5 141 .6 147.6 140.1 143.4 137.0 139.4 162.5 165.2 55.4 59.1 55.4 63.1 67.2 66.0 62.1 70.1 73.2 70,4 78.8 81 .0 86.7 93.7 99.1 96.4 104.4 111.5 109.1 107.3 118.0 131 .4 128.7 109 .2 122.8 134.5 142.4 147.2 140.5 143.0 136.2 140.9 163.4 164.1 58.3 55.6 59.9 55.9 65.1 66.9 65.3 61.9 72.5 71.9 71.7 79.6 82.4 87.9 94.8 100.9 97.1 105.2 112.0 106.5 110.2 120.7 133.6 128.2 107 .7 127.6 136.5 142 .9 148.2 139.7 141 . 4 135.2 147.6 166.1 56.0 56.1 59.0 57.3 66.4 66.6 65.0 63.4 74.0 71.0 74.8 78.7 84.4 89.8 95.3 100.4 98.1 105.4 112.0 105.0 113.4 123.1 133.3 125.1 113.4 130.5 139.1 146.5 146.8 132.1 144.1 135.9 154.7 167.7 -6.0 4.4 6.2 0.0 7!4 0.0 8.1 25.9 -19.6 24.2 1.5 12.3 2.8 5.2 13.9 -1.2 2.3 -4.2 -11.7 20.2 16.0 0.9 -1.9 2.3 7.8 18.0 19.1 15.7 -22.8 11.7 -8.5 25.3 5.2 1 .4 -22.2 -8.3 -7.7 13.6 1.6 5.5 -8.8 3.9 5.0 1.7 21.7 -5.8 10.6 12.9 -2.5 -4.6 2.5 -10.8 11.3 -10.8 11.3 8.1 -6.9 -14.8 42.1 4.8 0.9 12.2 -21.0 -29.8 27.5 12.2 20.0 6.7 -6.9 -8.1 11.4 -11.4 13.5 7.5 -17.9 3.8 25.8 3.3 1.7 15.6 -12.8 12.1 12.8 7.8 -14.3 10.3 8.3 -5.2 7.1 6.8 -1.0 0,9 -5.6 29.3 11.7 3.5 0.8 10.3 -20.3 -0.B 1 .8 16.0 0.7 3.7 -22,8 29.0 -18.5 13.3 3.7 -5.3 5.7 27.6 -7.8 1.7 15.4 -11.5 -2.8 -3.9 -3.7 -9.2 17.2 7.0 -10.2 4.7 -2.1 4.0 -3.5 -15.1 28.6 10.6 8.1 4.2 -8.6 10.6 -10.3 -6.0 25.0 -10.2 2.9 3.2 2.9 7.0 5.2 19.8 -0.4 -4.1 -0.3 22.3 -12.3 14.0 6.5 11.3 6.2 6.6 11.8 2.4 5.2 0.8 -17 10.7 -12.5 13.5 4.3 -5.9 0.2 19.1 0.2 1.7 17.6 -10.0 6.6 7.3 0.5 -9.4 10.0 1.5 -1.4 0.3 6.0 3.7 -3.2 -11.8 33.3 9.0 4.2 5.7 -6,4 -13.2 5.5 2.7 20.3 -0.9 -0.1 54.5 56.8 58.2 58.7 67.4 66.4 65.2 66.2 73.4 71.4 75.7 78.7 84.3 90.8 95.5 99.1 100.1 106.9 110.2 104.8 113.3 124.4 132.7 123.5 118.2 132.2 138.5 145.4 145.2 135.1 142.9 136.2 158.2 163.9 2,1 2.9 6.9 5,2 19.7 -0.6 -4.2 -0.6 22.2 -12.5 13.7 6,2 11.3 8.1 6.6 11.8 5.1 0.7 -12.6 18,3 15.0 8.8 -2.8 -5.0 21.0 3!4 -0,3 0.9 -8.1 -3.7 25.0 10.2 6.2 I'.t 5.S -8.^ -3.6 -2.9 29.1 9.6 9.6 2.1 -12.9 -0.7 0.0 8.2 13.1 2.4 -3.6 0.0 15.4 -10.5 18.0 4.1 11.8 10.0 2.1 6.6 - 1 .2 1.2 -10.7 16.8 13,4 3.1 15.9 -3.5 -20.8 21.7 9.0 1.5 -12.4 2.2 .6 .8 .2 .4 .8 12.2 10.9 -6.0 20.5 -5.9 11.6 9.4 3.4 -2.4 3.8 -0.4 0.4 -5.5 13.3 7.5 -1.8 -7.6 23.4 8.0 7.2 10.5 0.3 - 2 4 .4 12.2 1.5 20.4 4.1 -0.7 -18.0 9.6 - 1 2 .7 13.5 4.3 -6.4 0,0 18.6 0.0 1.7 17.6 -ioa 6.4 7.0 0.4 -9.5 . 9 .8 1.1 -1.8 0.0 5.8 3.6 - 3 .2 -11.9 33.2 9.0 4.1 5 .6 -7.3 -14.8 4.3 2 .4 20.3 -1.2 -0.2 -14.6 10.5 -9.7 14.9 8,1 -5.8 2.5 28.3 -3,2 2.9 10.1 -4.4 1.9 6.9 2.1 -9.1 12.9 8,7 -8.6 1.2 1.4 4.6 - 2 .1 -8.0 28.6 9.3 0,0 -2.4 -3.2 5.2 -4.6 0.6 15.8 -9.6 5,1 -12.3 -6.1 2.1 17.9 13.3 7.5 -1.8 31.7 -4.8 5.2 0.0 13.0 -2.8 1 2 ,,7 .5 -3.6 11.4 10.7 -10.3 -7.7 -2.1 11.2 -3.5 -2.9 27.9 5.6 -1K6 -10.1 32.1 -2.5 6.4 7.1 -18.4 8.9 -14.7 12.0 -11.6 7.9 6.2 1.2 0.6 28.5 -5,8 2.3 10.6 3 .1 0.0 5.9 0.8 -7.4 17 . 4 4,2 -6.6 -1.5 0,0 10.5 -5.9 -15.6 21.3 4.4 4,7 -0.5 -5.7 -0.3 12.2 -8.7 6.6 76.7 79.3 84.7 91.5 95.8 98.3 101.9 106.5 110.3 104.7 113.7 126.0 131.5 120.3 119.0 131.9 140.5 146.2 144.5 138.3 142.4 136.1 158.9 164.4 55.9 59.7 67.9 66.3 64.2 68.7 73.3 71.5 76.4 79.9 85.7 92.7 96.4 97.3 102.3 108.1 110.8 104.9 114.6 127.5 130.9 116.5 120.6 132.4 141 .1 146.8 144.5 141.2 139.3 137.5 160.0 165.7 -8.5 15.8 -17.1 -6.0 1.8 1.8 -1.8 26.3 -4.8 0.0 17.1 9.5 5.8 9.7 3.8 -9.3 23.8 -4.4 1.1 -1.1 4.3 16 .6 -10.3 -27.0 8.4 -2.7 18.8 6.8 -5.6 32.4 -4.1 -0.9 5.4 3.7 8.1 100 Annual 4.5 -9.7 -2.1 27.0 0.0 4.2 -10.2 31.4 11.5 4.2 2 .2 16.5 -3!5 -15.4 23.5 3.3 1.7 -4.6 9.5 15.1 16,9 7.8 -11.5 4.8 19.6 5.6 2.3 9.9 15.3 -5.3 -32.0 17.4 4.6 5.2 K8 -12.3 12.9 -9.4 -4.9 18.7 1.5 8.7 1.3 7.7 -7.2 2 .4 27.3 -1.1 -5.6 9.8 19.4 0.9 -26.9 14.9 -1.8 7.0 9.4 -20.9 10.7 -18.8 10.0 19.6 -10.3 0.0 -14.1 18.7 -12.4 -6.5 16.6 12.7 2.8 3.9 13.1 -2.5 8.5 5.6 -12.3 7.1 10.9 8.7 0.9 -21.8 4.0 12.5 -2.5 -2.4 -12.7 8.8 0.9 7 .2 0.7 7.6 -10.9 -5.0 24.0 -6.6 4.7 3 .0 2 ,8 8.0 14,3 -1.2 14.9 7.9 -4.3 29.7 16.6 10.6 -19.9 -19.6 4.0 9.4 7.0 -3.2 3.5 -3.3 -6.8 13.7 6.9 -7.7 28.3 -23.2 13.1 8.6 9.9 -2.9 15.5 -14.3 13.0 7.4 1.8 -6.6 27.1 - 2 .2 2.3 3.8 10.7 5.8 13.1 4.7 -8.2 13.1 6.2 -1.4 -2.3 3.9 14.3 -6.4 -21.6 17 .6 2.5 3.8 -0.3 -5.3 30.9 -10.5 6.0 7 .0 -2 .4 3.0 14.1 -15.5 15.9 -1.8 0.0 -10.0 20.8 -3.8 -1.1 9.9 6.8 9.8 9.1 6.4 -9.3 9.9 13.3 1.8 -1.5 8.0 17.1 -5.0 -28.7 13.5 0.0 10.2 7.1 -9.3 23.4 -15.8 7.2 11.0 0.7 6.0 10.1 -13.2 29.5 0.0 -0.6 -14.0 18.3 -6.4 -3.3 9.7 7.8 8.8 7.2 ,5 -7 .1 5.2 17 .2 -2.9 1.2 10.2 14.4 -1.2 -27.0 11 . 4. 3! -11. 15. -14. 10.1 9.4 2.0 54.4 57.8 57.1 58.9 67.6 66.4 64.8 67.5 73.3 71.4 76.3 79.3 84.9 91.7 95,9 98.2 101.4 107.2 110.4 104.8 113.9 126.0 131 .7 120.1 119.3 132.2 140.0 146.1 144.7 138.2 141.5 136.6 159.0 164.7 55.1 136.7 139.6 162.8 164.5 56.0 57.1 57.9 58.6 66.6 66.5 64.5 65.7 73.1 71.3 75.2 79.6 84.5 90.6 96.0 99.0 100.0 107.2 111.1 105.5 113.5 125.0 132.2 121.2 115.7 130.9 139.4 145.8 145.1 138.2 140.9 136.8 156.0 165.7 5.3 -0.4 -3.4 25.0 -3.7 -1.7 -12. 8. 0. -6 . 13. 5. 4, 4. 11. -3.6 8.6 13.6 -5.9 10.4 12.4 12.9 -6.0 -22.8 7 .6 6.7 3.8 1.3 -10.0 5.4 -8.2 10.3 9.1 -2. 7. -5. 14. 7 -1. -5. 13.7 5.3 -3.6 12.3 3.2 7.2 8,2 5.9 -2.3 8.6 7.2 -1.9 -1.0 10. 11.5 -1.6 -14.5 13.5 10.0 6.2 3.8 -3.9 3.9 -3.9 3.8 16.5 58.9 55.5 62.1 67.3 66.3 62.8 70.0 72.6 70.8 78.3 60.6 86.5 93.2 98.0 96.5 103.4 110.9 109.8 105.6 116.7 130.4 130.3 111.3 122.4 133.4 142.0 147 .6 140.8 142.9 AVERAGE FOR 14.2 41.9 -25.7 30.2 -7!o -2.7 -4.7 21.7 12.5 8.1 6.1 - 7 .7 -3.0 -4.1 29.5 9.7 9.8 -2.2 17.2 -13.6 14.0 7.5 1.9 -6.3 27.2 -2.1 2.3 4.2 10.7 6.0 13.1 4.7 -8.1 13.3 8.6 -1.2 -2,2 4.0 14.4 -6.4 -20.6 17.9 2.5 4.5 0.1 -5.2 30.9 -9.9 6.2 7.0 -1.6 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 5.2 -0.7 -3.5 24.8 -4.1 -1.8 -12.5 8.4 -0.5 -6.0 13.2 5.6 4.7 4.4 11.7 -3.6 8.5 13.2 -6.0 9.5 12.4 12.8 -6.6 -22.8 7.5 6.5 3.7 1.1 -10.6 5.2 -8.6 10.3 8.8 -3.8 NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. IV Q AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 54.1 57.5 57.3 58.4 67,5 66.5 65.1 CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 5.0 5.2 6.3 5.9 20.0 -4,7 -6.5 -6.8 11.2 1.1 3.4 7.3 8.2 8.1 7.5 11.9 2.1 9.2 4.8 -10.2 21.3 15.2 12.2 -9.1 -12.3 19.6 III Q INDICATORS CHANGE IR COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) -9.8 2.2 2.0 11.3 22 .7 -5.2 -1.8 -11.0 16.2 -12.4 8.8 18.1 12,4 14.7 3.9 11.4 -4.8 13.4 -1.1 -9.6 19.2 16.2 16.5 -6.3 -1.1 19.7 19.4 16.4 -1.6 -8.2 -13.4 5.5 19.8 15.6 10.6 910C. 57.9 55.8 60.1 56.1 66.0 67.1 65.3 62.0 73.7 70.8 72.7 80.0 83.2 88.4 95.2 101 .9 96.9 105.7 111,7 105.5 Aug. July COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING (1967-100) 4.4 7 .0 -1.4 22,7 -0.6 -5.9 - 7 .9 12.0 1 .1 -1.7 6.9 8.2 4.2 7.5 12.5 2,9 7 .6 7 .1 -11.1 17.1 13.4 9 .6 -6.8 -18.9 14.1 7.1 -2.5 -0.5 -0.8 -0.8 -5.2 20.5 5 .3 5.2 -1.9 2.5 4.4 6.4 17.6 -I .0 -4.8 -2.5 16 . 3 -7.3 11.7 5.9 10 , 4 8 7 4 10.1 1.0 5.2 2.4 - 1 1 ,2 18.6 14.5 8.0 -6.6 -1.5 17.0 11.3 8.8 0.7 -9.5 -1.5 -1.3 25.3 9.6 5.8 6.9 4.9 0.2 19.7 2.6 -0.5 16.1 -6.8 6.6 7.8 2.0 -7.0 8.8 3.1 -3.3 - 1 .4 6.8 5.2 -2.4 -9.2 28.4 8.8 4!6 -3.4 -11.3 4.0 1.5 18.8 -2.2 1.4 -4.9 13.9 -13.8 12.3 3.9 1.0 -5.3 25.5 -3.9 1.2 8.1 6.9 5.2 9.4 4.0 -8.3 13.5 8.6 -2.1 -1.8 4.0 14.0 -5.8 -22.0 17.5 2.3 6.2 2.1 -7,6 26.3 -10.7 4.3 10.1 -3.5 5.2 5.5 -6.0 25.7 -1.6 -2 .8 -11.5 12.9 -1 .9 -3.7 9.9 7.2 5.9 6.4 11.2 -2.6 7 .1 12,5 -6.7 9.3 12.0 12.3 -4.9 - 2 2 .9 11 .2 6.2 i!s -7.7 6.7 -9.4 13.6 7.8 1.1 -4.1 7.3 -6.1 14.2 6 .7 - 1 .9 -5.3 13.9 3.2 -2.6 11.4 3.3 s!l 5.6 -1.9 7 .6 7.3 -2.4 -1.3 10.4 11.5 -1.2 -15.1 13.9 8.6 4,2 -4.5 3.0 -4,4 4.5 15.5 1.3 (SEPTEMBER 1985) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. 1951... 1952... 1953.. . 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... I960... 1961... 1962... 57.6 57.9 63.8 60.0 61.9 66.3 69.6 64.3 67.0 71.9 67,0 72.0 57.4 58.8 64.3 60.0 62.3 68.2 70.0 63.0 67.7 71.6 66.8 72.7 1963 . . . 1964.. . 196 5 . . . 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969.. . 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976.,. 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 74.5 78.6 85.4 93.6 99.4 102.8 109.1 110.8 108.6 114.0 125.5 128.7 116.2 121.4 128.3 137.1 149.3 150.7 146.8 138.4 134.3 149.5 79.4 86.0 94.3 98.8 103.5 109.9 110.8 108.5 114.4 127.0 128.0 114.6 122,9 129.2 13 8 . 3 149.4 149.6 147.2 139.9 133.5 150.6 Feb. Mar. June July Oct. Nov. L I 57.3 61.6 63.4 59.0 66.7 68.9 68.4 64.2 67.9 69.3 70.2 74.2 57.6 62.5 63.1 59.4 67.4 69.6 67.7 64.6 67.6 69.1 71.0 74-4 57.8 62,8 61.9 60.4 67.8 69.4 66.6 66.2 68.3 68.1 72.0 74.7 82. 5 89. > 97. ) 100. } 106. J 112. > 109. 1 109. S 119. J 127 . i 127. » 117. } 125. ) 134. S 145.< } 150. > 141. I 147.. 1 3 5 . -I 140.1 J 156. ) 83.1 90.2 97.7 100.4 107.1 112.6 109.0 110.1 119.9 128.7 126.5 118.1 125.6 135.8 146.1 150.4 142.7 146.5 134.5 143.3 156.5 82.1 91 . 2 98.3 100.3 107.7 112.9 106.7 110.2 121.8 129,7 125,2 118.5 125.3 136.6 147.4 150.3 144.2 144.5 132.9 145.0 156.5 Aug. Apr. May 57.6 58.7 64.9 59.4 63.5 68.2 69.9 62.1 68.8 71.0 67.3 73.2 57.9 58.5 64.9 59.1 64.3 68.8 69.3 61.0 69.8 71.3 67.5 73.7 57.8 58.8 65.0 58.9 65.2 68.4 68.9 61.2 70 .6 70.9 68.3 73.7 57.9 58.4 64.7 58.9 65.6 68.4 69.1 62.1 70.8 70.4 69.3 73.6 57.3 57.3 64.9 58.7 66.2 65.9 69.1 63.1 70.2 70.0 69.4 74.0 57. 59. 64. 58. 66. 68. 69, 63. 68. 69. 70. 74. 79.5 86.8 95.4 98.9 104.0 110.5 110.8 108.8 115.6 127.4 127.8 113.0 123.6 130.9 140.0 151.2 148.1 147.2 139.2 134.6 151.1 80.4 87.3 95.5 99.1 104.4 110.8 110.5 109.1 116.6 127.2 127.6 113.3 124.3 131.6 143.0 149.1 145.1 147.1 138.0 135.6 152.6 81.0 87.9 96.0 99.0 105.2 110.8 110.1 109.6 117.2 127.5 128.2 114.1 124,6 132,5 143.1 150.6 142.4 146.9 138.8 137.9 153.9 81.2 68.5 97.1 99.2 106.0 111.4 109.7 109.8 116.9 127.8 128.3 114.9 124.8 133.6 144.2 150.6 141.1 147.5 137.3 139.8 155.4 81.9 89.4 97.3 99.5 106.6 112.1 109.8 109.6 117.8 128.7 128.2 115.6 125.3 134.3 145.0 151.0 140.8 147,6 136.4 140.7 155.7 Sept Dec. 11.0 4.2 7.8 -14.7 14.6 1.8 -5.0 -18.4 22.0 18.3 196 2 ! . . 1963.. . 196 4 . . . 1965... 1966.., 1967... -6^ 1.6 4.7 4.3 8.0 10.2 196 8 . . . 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972.!. 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980.. . 1981.. . 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985.. . -5.7 2.2 -12.1 11.7 21.0 10.1 -9.7 -20.2 20.8 4.8 -8.4 -3.2 5.7 5.9 -19.3 16.5 17.5 57.7 63,4 60.8 61.2 68.2 69.9 65.4 65.9 70.9 67.2 72.4 74,4 57.5 58.5 64.3 59.8 62.6 68.2 69.8 63.1 67.8 71.5 67.0 72.6 57.9 58.6 64.9 59.0 6 5.0 68.5 69.1 61.4 70.4 70.9 68.4 73.7 } L f I iI L ) 57.' ^ 59.( 64.] 58.( 66.4 67.3 68.< 63. i 68.; 69.1 69.$ 74.] 57.7 62,9 61.9 60.3 67.8 69.6 66.6 65.6 68.9 68.1 71.8 74.5 57.6 59.9 63. 59. 65. 68. 68. 63.4 69.0 70,0 69.3 73.7 83.7 92.1 98.3 102.0 108.5 111.9 105.8 111.0 123.2 130.7 122.2 118.9 126.8 137.2 148.4 149.9 145.3 143.0 132.7 145.9 157.7 85!l 93.0 98.6 103.3 108.9 112.0 107 .6 112.2 124.5 129.8 118.4 119.5 127 . 8 138.1 149.7 150.0 146.1 140.9 132.6 147.5 158.9 7 5.0 79.2 86.1 94.4 99.0 103.4 109.8 110.8 108.6 114.7 126.6 128.2 114.6 122.6 129.5 138.5 150.0 149.5 147.1 139.2 134.1 150.4 7 6.3 80.9 87.9 96.2 99.1 105.2 111.0 110.1 109.5 116.9 127.5 128.0 114.1 124.6 132.6 143.4 150.1 142.9 147.2 138.0 137.8 154.0 77.1 82.. 89.1 97.. 100.] 106.8 112.' • 109.< 109.1 119.(> 128. < 127.2 117.C 125.: 134.S 145.1 150.1 141.6 147.1 135.4 141 .« 156.1 7 8.0 83.6 92.1 98.4 101.9 108.4 112.3 106.7 111.1 123.2 130.1 121.9 119.0 126.6 137.3 148.5 150.1 145.2 142,8 132.7 146.1 157.7 76.6 81.5 89.0 96.6 100.0 106.0 111.4 109.2 109.7 118.4 126.2 126.4 116.2 124.8 133.6 144.0 150.2 144.8 146.0 136.3 139.9 154.5 -2.1 12.1 -19.4 17.1 7.3 9,0 -19.6 -5.3 56.6 3.7 7.5 9.8 -8.7 16.1 0.0 0.1 -18.7 18.9 2.1 -1.9 -1.2 -3.3 14.0 1.4 -4.3 1.3 12.4 -3.( 29.S -1 A O.C 7.C 9.2 -3.£ 14,2 -14.« 2.9 12.3 -15.2 15.9 9 .3 6 .2 -16.3 12.2 21.5 0.8 12.6 2.3 5.<S 3.2 6 .4 8.3 10.8 1.5 8.9 8.1 7.5 1.3 7.9 3.3 -3.9 3 .7 4.8 1.3 1.6 6.9 3.9 8.5 13.1 -0.9 - 1 7 .5 0.9 -5.0 16.5 11.9 0.2 9.7 8.C X.I 5.C 4.'. 4.< -2.! 1 .! 10.7 3.2 - 5 .t 11.7 2.6 6.S 5.4 -0.5 4.S -2.6 -7.S 10.£ 2.£ 13.3 1.2 5.0 11.5 13.0 3.8 12.5 6 .9 -1.9 -3.3 8 .0 16.3 3.8 -22.9 4.8 7.5 7.0 10.2 -1.0 9.9 -14.4 -5.4 12.3 6.4 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD -6.1 39.9 -12.3 6.3 9.4 13.0 -11.5 11.9 -3.5 -* i 1.7 0.0 6.5 19.0 -5.5 8.4 13.3 12.9 -11.6 7.7 -5.2 4.2 5.9 -20.6 22.2 7.4 -3.4 -17.8 34.1 13.2 14.6 18.3 I 1. f 3. J 10. 9.1 8,3 1.2 1 .2 -13.5 14.1 7.6 -1.2 26.1 12.5 0.0 22.3 22.0 12.4 3.7 16.4 7 .0 7.8 1 .1 2 .. 4 . J4 -5. 1 1.1 -3.2 -3.0 2.9 0.9 8.7 9.6 8.8 -0.9 7.6 16. + -8. -8. I 19. L 6.2 8.8 -7,3 8.5 3.2 -22.6 1.1 20.8 9.7 -11.7 4.1 -10.1 -9.7 9.1 14.7 9.7 -25.3 4.1 1.1 22.4 13.8 13.4 -8.0 -31.6 6.2 9.6 0.0 -10.4 5.0 -12.2 17.8 12.3 6 ,9 3.2 -2.5 0.8 -7.6 8.0 2.3 7. -3. I 3. > -2 . + -10. 0. ) 2..\ 1.7 -1.6 13.5 -6.3 -6.0 23.5 3.9 11.2 -0.8 13.4 -15.2 -13.4 15.2 0.0 8.5 -3.1 9.5 -11.8 -1.8 7.7 9.6 11.0 0.8 6.8 -16.3 -0.9 14.0 9.5 -4.1 20.3 9.8 0.0 8.0 -1.7 7.1 -21.7 13.3 4.3 -2.0 11.8 -11.4 25.7 0.0 -1.7 -15.9 21.3 6.4 -4.0 0.0 -5.9 16.2 11.1 -9.8 -19.3 18.9 -2.1 6.3 1.9 -4.0 18.2 -6.8 -6.7 4.0 14.7 2,1 -7.9 -5.4 0.0 7.6 0.0 3.5 19.1 3.5 -11.8 -20.4 3.8 -4.0 11.5 -36.0 0.0 21.1 -9.7 -3.5 12.3 10.1 12.9 8.8 9.4 -7.0 9.4 8.6 4.9 1.5 11.8 14.9 1.2 3.6 8.5 10.0 14.5 7.1 1.3 2.5 15'.2 0.0 4.8 9.3 8.6 6.5 - 1 .2 19.1 -1.6 4.8 3.0 8.5 14.7 2.5 K7 6.7 6. > 70. -13. J 0.0 0. ) 50. } 0.0 9. ) -30.5 -5.0 12. 3 3. 10.8 12.9 2.5 3.7 8.5 9.2 0.0 -1.1 4.3 15.3 -6.3 -15.3 15.9 6.0 6.8 0.0 3.4 13!3 3.8 -1.9 -15.5 7.1 4.7 3.3 -3.2 3.4 10.9 -1.9 -1.9 3.2 7.0 9 .6 0 .0 -4.3 5 .6 9 .5 6.7 -4.3 2.9 5.8 8.8 11.0 0.8 -8.4 3.3 13.8 -6.9 9.2 15.8 15.5 -11.4 0.0 -5.8 10.3 4.1 29.0 -15.5 -21.8 -0.8 -9.9 9,3 12.6 0.8 12.8 -20.2 -1.6 7 .2 22.4 10.7 \'[ , 920C. Annual AVERAGE FOR PERIOD J CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 4~~RODGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATOR 5 OVER 1-MONTH SPANS (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... IV Q II Q (1967-100) 920C. niq IQ 2,9 6.1 -4.0 4.7 12.9 9.7 -6.0 -17.0 14.6 10.2 6.1 4.4 -4.7 3.1 -3.8 6.6 10.3 0.1 1.2 12.0 -3.5 1.2 11.6 4.2 -6.1 2.3 9.6 -4.8 8.0 2.9 5.3 9.1 9.3 6.1 5.1 5 .5 3.0 -3.4 4. 11. 4. -8.; };* 8.7 0.5 -1.9 -3.3 -5.5 11.6 7.8 CHANGE IN COMPOSITE ] NDEX OF 4 ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS AVERAGE FOII PERIOD 1951... 1952... 1953.. . 1954... 1955... 1956 . . . 1957 . . . 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961.. . 1962... 1963.. . 1964... 1965... 1966.. . 1967.. . 1968.. . 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983.., 1984... 1985... 12.0 7 .1 9.9 -11.7 13.2 2,4 3.5 9!4 20.8 -7.4 3.9 2.2 3.5 7.1 9.8 -8.9 15.9 0.0 0.0 -18.7 18.8 0.6 0.6 4.5 5.5 2.1 4.2 7.1 -5.9 16.4 3.0 -1,7 -19.0 17.8 -3.3 3.0 9.8 8.3 2.8 0 .0 4.4 -7.1 20.0 1.2 -6.1 - 1 0 .9 18.3 -3.9 9.3 5.6 6.5 2.1 -2.0 -1.2 -3.3 13.9 1 .2 -4.5 0 .0 12.1 -3.3 12.4 2.2 6.5 -4.J -8.C 0 .( -2 , 12. -15. 14.* 2. -7 . 11." 10. i 3 J S 2.1 41.5 -10.6 4.9 7.5 20.8 -13.0 12.1 10 .0 12.2 -15.4 15.8 9.3 8.6 -18.3 17.9 5.4 6.1 8.9 -8.8 15.2 -3.3 1.1 -4.4 15.4 24.2 -7 .£ 1 A 6.< 13 .9 -15.6 15.3 8.2 1.8 10.2 -3.4 0.9 11.4 1 I + L 3 ) -7.9 9.9 -14.0 -5.0 9.5 2.2 -13.7 17.4 1.2 -8.9 11.3 2.7 -16.4 11.0 18.9 -11.6 13.1 1.1 4.4 2 .6 7.6 8.0 9. 7 7. 9 1.0 8.3 5.9 11 .6 2.9 7.0 10 . 0 13.0 3.7 12.1 -18.6 15.7 28.0 - 1 1 ,6 5.8 0.5 3,1 17 .1 10.9 4,6 10.3 -19.2 15.3 6.0 -1.3 6.1 5.3 8.3 9.6 9.7 0.7 13.e -14.2 -5.S 8 .( 2.1 4.C 6.1 8. -2. 5 1 .1 10. 7 2 .B -5. 5 -10.8 2 .2 14.3 3.1 -9.0 -12.2 6 .4 13.7 9.4 -15.1 -5.0 7 .9 16.3 3.5 -23.3 7.3 14.5 12 .7 -3.0 -25.8 5.9 -3.1 5.7 11.6 9.3 -5.8 1 .2 10.9 -4.8 11.1 3 .1 5.8 8.3 9.1 7.5 1.2 7.8 3.8 -3.0 3 .2 6 .3 2.6 1.4 -5. J 14.7 16.0 -10.7 10.1 1.4 4.0 11.0 11.8 3.7 9.8 6.2 -3.8 - 3 ,3 9 .6 14.2 3.3 -21.4 2.6 7.0 -3.8 7.1 3.3 4.9 8.4 9.6 6.4 4.1 6.0 2.6 -3.7 4.8 10.8 4.4 - 0 .0 7.0 6.8 -1.8 10 . 0 -8.1 -9.9 12.8 2.1 4.2 8.0 7.0 -1.8 12.1 -11.2 -7.2 15.3 4 .4 7.2 6.9 10.2 -1.1 9.9 -14.4 -5.5 12.2 6.3 9.9 1.5 5.3 1.1 7.4 -15.8 4.3 13.0 4.4 12.8 9.5 9.1 2.1 -6.6 3.0 -4.8 4.2 10.7 2.3 4.3 9.2 11.0 2.3 -15.6 0.5 -4.3 15.4 9.8 0.3 l.f J 6. i 6. i -0, J 3, i -3.. -9.3 10.< > 3. ?!l 5.5 7.5 -0.6 9.8 -13.8 -2.8 13.5 5.0 .7 1.6 5.8 - 1.2 ) .4 - j.3 10,9 7.3 -1.4 7 .7 -5.4 -1 .4 6.3 -1.2 1.2 16,6 -13.4 -6.6 11.0 2 .7 2.1 6.0 5.3 -3.9 2.7 6.0 -4.2 6.4 6.4 -1.1 -2.5 7.9 3.3 -3.9 8.7 4.8 -2.5 -2.9 12.8 12.9 -8.0 12.7 9.6 -6.0 9.4 5.5 -3.4 1.6 0.6 1.3 1.6 4.8 1.9 0.9 -2.8 14.2 7.8 3.2 2.7 -0.8 5.3 -8.4 2.4 13.5 2.0 14.4 10.1 5.6 4.1 -5.0 3.0 -4.7 6.2 10.1 0.0 9.9 10.7 18.4 -0.5 -14.1 0.8 -1.2 3.9 8.6 4.9 6.7 5.6 10.6 14.6 3 .3 -17 .9 -0 .8 -3.1 13.8 9 .1 2.8 3.9 8.5 12.6 - 1 .6 -17.6 0.8 -5.3 16.4 11.9 0.0 3.3 8.5 5.7 5.2 - 1 1 .3 1 .4 -4,6 15.9 8.4 -2.0 2.9 6.5 8.1 0 .0 - 3 .3 1 .1 - 1 0 .0 8.7 5.6 1 .0 -4. 23. -7, 0. 6. 3. -4. 14. -15. -6. 5. 3. 2. 6. 5. -0. 4. -2. -7. 10. 2. & 8 4 5 5 7 9 k 9 NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 4."> ^ o!i 10.f J !s (SEPTEMBER 1985) 101 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar. 930. 1951... 1952.. . 1953... 1954... 42.8 50.2 53.3 57.9 43.7 50.3 53.8 57 .3 1955 • • . 1956.. . 1957... 1958... 1959... I960.. . 1961.. . 196 2 . . . 1963... 1964... 196 5 . . . 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971.. . 1972... 1973.. . 1974... 1975... 1976,. . 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980.. . 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 52.6 60.0 67.0 71.8 64.1 74.9 76.7 73.8 77.9 81 .9 87.0 92.4 99.3 99.8 104.9 114.8 109.1 104.4 106.2 114.6 121 .0 104.3 103.8 111.4 119.2 126.2 121.7 126.1 115.7 109.8 52,7 60.2 66.6 69.3 64.0 76.2 76,6 73.5 78.1 82.9 87.7 93 . 3 99!6 100.4 105.6 114.8 108.8 104.2 107.3 114.4 119.0 103.8 104.3 111.6 119.7 127.1 120.7 125.3 115. 8 111.3 930C 44.5 50.8 54.1 56.3 53 • 0 61.2 67.0 69.2 64.3 77.0 75.8 73.9 78.3 83.4 88.2 93 .6 100.3 100.3 105.9 115.1 108.3 104.4 107.6 113.6 118.6 103.3 104.2 112.3 118.8 130.2 119.0 125.1 114.4 112 .8 Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. IQ II Q COMPOSITE INDEX OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS (1967-100) AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 47,1 51.9 57.3 53.5 47.3 51.9 57.9 53.2 47 . 8 51.7 58.1 53.0 48.3 52.3 58.3 53.0 49.4 53.0 58.5 52.9 43.7 50.4 53.7 57.2 45.7 51.4 56.2 54.8 47.1 52.0 57.4 53.6 53.2 63.9 68.1 64.6 66.1 78.6 74.5 74.8 7 8.5 83.5 89.8 54 .2 66.1 68.4 62.6 69.4 79.2 73.3 75.9 79.5 83.8 89.7 56 .5 64.9 71.0 61.9 71.4 78.4 73.1 76.2 80.0 85.0 90.7 56 ,9 65.9 72.3 63.5 75.1 75.8 73.4 76.6 80.3 85.9 90.5 66.0 71.8 64.0 76.3 75.8 73.1 77.1 80.7 86.6 91 . 2 66.6 72.6 63.8 76,4 76.4 72.6 77.5 82.1 85.7 91 . 9 100.2 101.5 109.0 113.6 107.3 105.1 109.6 116.7 112.8 103.4 105.2 112.8 121.0 129.6 122.2 125.1 111.0 116.4 100.4 101.8 109.2 114.0 105.2 105.9 110.7 117.1 108.6 102.9 106.3 113.7 122.3 125.5 122.4 124.8 109.8 117.5 100.5 101.5 109.3 113.5 106 . 0 105.4 112.0 117.1 108.0 103.2 106.2 114.3 122.3 121.8 122.5 124.3 109.7 118.8 99.8 102.2 109.9 114.1 107.0 105.0 112.0 117.2 106.9 103.2 107 .2 114.8 123.0 120.5 123.3 122.3 110.3 119.8 100.3 102,5 110.4 113.6 106.9 104.9 113.2 118.6 105.9 103.9 107.7 115.4 124.7 119.4 124. 7 121.4 109.7 121.0 100.1 102.6 111.1 113,5 106,4 105.1 113.3 118.7 106.0 104.2 108.3 115.3 125.8 119.0 125.0 120.2 109.6 122.0 99.6 103.2 111.3 112,8 106.0 105.1 113 .6 119.7 104.7 103.8 109.0 117 .1 126.3 120.1 124.5 118.2 110.0 121.7 66.4 73.2 64.7 75.2 77.2 73.0 78.0 82.4 86.1 92.3 99.3 99^ 104.3 111.8 111.0 105.9 104.8 114.5 121.1 104.6 103.7 109.4 118.0 126.1 123.0 124.4 116.7 110.9 122.1 60.5 66.9 70.1 64.1 76,0 76.4 73.7 78.1 82.7 87.6 93 .1 99.7 100.2 105.5 114.9 108.7 104.3 107.0 114.2 119.5 103.8 104.1 111 . 8 119.2 127.8 120.5 125.5 115.3 111.3 63.6 68.0 65.2 66.2 78.4 74.4 75.0 78.6 83.9 89.5 9 5.5 100.3 101.5 108.1 113.8 106.6 105.2 109.9 116.5 112.2 103.0 105 . 4 112.7 121.7 129,1 121.2 125.3 111.4 116 . 2 55.9' 65.6 70.6 62.7 72.0 77.8 73,3 76.2 79.9 84.9 90.3 97.3 100.2 102.1 109.9 113.7 106.6 105.1 112.4 117.6 106.9 103.4 107.0 114.8 123.3 120.6 123.5 122.7 109.9 119.9 13.3 31.0 26.0 19.3 7.2 19.2 22.0 -13.4 23!o 6.9 -29.1 29.1 8.1 -7.8 26.8 12.4 28.7 3.6 48.4 4.2 -2.2 19.6 3.3 5.5 8.2 1,8 -1.5 5.4 6.8 8.4 3.0 4.7 -0.2 2.9 -2!o 7.5 11.2 1.4 8.2 7.8 -2.7 7.3 -3.5 -10.5 5.9 -1.2 6.8 -3,7 -8.6 -3.7 -0.4 13.2 -29.5 -1.4 8.4 5.5 13.5 -10.9 13.2 -0.8 -14.9 5.4 -9.6 4.0 5.5 6.1 8.3 -17.6 8.9 -4.6 -0.7 6.5 9.7 4.7 13.7 6!l -12.8 -0.7 5.6 8.2 7.4 -0.1 -10.3 -0,2 -14.5 4.6 12.5 3.8 -5.7 -4.5 10.5 5 2.6 62.5 67.8 67.8 64.3 77.3 75.0 74.5 7 8.3 83.8 88.9 100.2 101.1 107.0 113.7 107.2 104.7 109.4 115.6 115.2 102.8 104.7 111.6 121.7 132,3 119.0 125.9 113 . 5 114.6 25.4 21.3 7,0 -11.6 -11.8 -19.0 -19.4 -8.3 -12.4 -4.3 -12.5 1956!!! 1957... 1958... 1959... 12.8 11.4 -20.7 -10.6 4.1 -6.9 -34.6 -1.9 21,9 7.5 -1,7 5.8 28.7 15.3 -21.8 0.0 30.5 5.4 -44.0 39.3 9.8 0.0 -21.6 48.1 36 .7 5.4 -12.5 21.1 -19.7 56.5 -12,6 40.6 -6.5 8 .8 20.1 24.3 35.8 83.4 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1 965 . . . 1966... 1967 . . . 196 8 . . . 1969... 1970... 1971,.. 1972... 197 3 . . . 1974... 1975... 1976.. . 1977., . 1978... 1979... 1980,. . 1 981 1982... 1983... -7.5 14.0 -1.5 -7.0 13.3 -11.8 6.7 3.1 7.5 7 .1 -7,7 4.9 3.1 -4.2 12,8 ll'.* 0.0 -6.3 4.9 7.9 -6,9 -3,2 4.8 7.8 18.6 5.0 6,5 4.6 13.5 8.8 -12.0 10,2 0.0 5.9 10.0 13.'6 -1.2 -12.2 13.6 7.9 12.1 1.3 0.0 2.4 7.1 37.4 -18.7 -15.7 17.3 1.1 -1.0 -3.4 1,2 24.3 12.9 1.0 -12.0 17 I? -9.8 -1.6 -4.8 3.1 15.7 10 .1 12.3 3.7 7.5 8.3 0.0 -3.3 -2.3 13.2 -2.1 -18.1 -5.6 5.9 2.2 5.2 8.9 2.4 1.2 6.4 -8.0 3.5 3.2 -5.4 2.3 -13.7 -11.5 3.5 -1.1 1.1 4.7 4.3 -21.1 9.5 -5.1 9.5 -5.5 6.5 11.9 -4.5 -8.1 -4,0 -5.6 -1,1 7.8 -8.7 33.5 23.3 -29.5 -5.7 5.9 -7.2 33.6 21.2 12,0 -22.3 7,2 5.9 13.7 -6.7 -21.9 4'.2 -36,6 -5.7 13.3 10.0 13.7 -32.0 0.0 -6.4 3.6 -1.1 6.5 0.0 -30.2 -K9 -13.6 1985.. . -11.3 22.7 7.9 -9.0 20,9 1.0 -7.4 -23.5 20.6 24.2 -2.8 -12.2 11.9 -1.9 -4.7 -1.1 14.1 1.9 ~7!4 1 .0 17.7 7.0 930C. 1951.. . 1952... 1953... 1954,,. 1955... 1956... 1957,., 1958..• 1959... 1960... 1961 . . . 196 2 . . . 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 196 8 . . . 1969!!! 1970.. . 1971... 1972... 1973.. . 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 197 9 . . . 1980... 1981.. . 1982.. , 1983... 1984... 1985... 11.8 17.6 12.0 -6.7 -2.2 5.5 0.0 io!o 17.4 -4.6 Annual 47.0 52.3 56.9 54 .1 45.6 51.3 56.5 54.9 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 24.3 12.6 IV Q 46.5 52.2 56.8 54.3 53 .9 64.4 68.1 63.3 68.3 79.4 73.7 75.6 79.0 84.3 89.9 45.1 50.6 55.2 55.3 CHANC E IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF & LAGGING INDICATORS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS (ANNUAL RAT E, PERCENT) 28.4 2.4 III Q 14.1 17.9 26.4 23.2 13,7 2.3 2.6 -8,8 5.2 13,4 48.5 52.3 58.3 53.0 46.3 51.5 56.4 54.6 59.0 66.3 72.5 64.2 76.0 76.5 72.9 77.5 81.7 86.1 91.8 9 8,7 99.8 103.4 111.4 112.4 106.1 105.0 113.8 119.8 105.1 103.9 108.9 116.8 126.1 120.7 124.6 118.4 110.2 121.9 55.2 64.0 69.5 65.5 69.6 77.2 74.2 75.6 79.6 84.4 89.8 96.2 100.0 101.8 108.7 113.7 107.0 104.9 110.8 117.0 110.9 103.5 106.4 114.0 122,6 124.6 122.4 123.0 111.7 117.3 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD -4.4 31.1 1.8 -8.0 9.9 21.0 0 .0 -4.8 8.1 6.1 0.0 -2.2 8.6 -14.1 27.8 11.5 14.2 -3.7 1.6 9.9 -7.9 6.4 22.9 0 .0 -3.5 10.4 18.3 -17.3 13.3 6.8 8.0 4.5 I2I9 4.0 -19.0 -2.2 10.5 -7.0 5,3 1.6 0.0 6.2 3.6 2.5 -2.4 17.2 -5.8 3.7 0.0 -5.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -5.5 2.3 -7.2 -4.4 0.0 -17.6 -1.1 -3.4 0 •0 1.0 -11.6 0.0 11.9 5.4 7.1 -12.1 13.6 15.3 -10.7 8.5 5.7 6.5 17.9 -10.4 1 .1 1.0 1.1 3.5 6.9 -1.0 11 .1 -3.9 10.6 -13.8 -4.5 8.0 20.4 4.9 11.7 15.0 -1.1 -1.1 4.5 9.6 -1.9 33.2 -17.7 6,8 10.6 0.0 -8.5 -6.3 12.7 -11.2 -1.1 -18.2 4.5 -14.2 10.3 5.8 4.2 13.5 • -9.1 -5.2 -3.0 -7.7 -4.9 2.0 11.4 3.1 14.5 -12.4 2.8 -7.5 -10.6 9.6 3 .7 8 .0 12.5 0 .4 13.2 7.8 CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF f > LAGGING INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS (AHNOAL RATE, PERCENT) 17.9 7.8 10.7 -9.4 13.7 12.9 11.3 -9.1 19.3 3.9 -5.3 6.9 5.8 4.9 7 .4 7.7 0,4 4.8 7.3 0.0 -4.1 -0.8 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 26.0 11.8 8.6 -14.2 9.8 12.7 3.7 23.3 3.2 15.0 -16.8 0.0 17.7 4.9 18.6 8.2 21.6 -15.7 3.8 26.9 9.3 19.2 11.5 21.5 -13.5 7.0 22.6 6.7 17.9 14.1 12.9 -8.4 12.7 25.1 3.6 13.8 4.8 5.8 -9.8 27 .2 6 .4 18.2 7.1 -2.3 8.0 -7.9 24.2 9.6 27 . 0 7.0 -4.5 8.7 -7.9 33,0 -0.6 21 . 4 10.6 3.1 7.2 -3.7 22.2 10,9 9.3 19.0 8.8 4.2 -2.2 18.8 3.1 5.1 21.6 13.0 -1.4 -3.0 13.0 6 ,2 0.0 20 . 4 10.9 11.9 -12.6 -0.5 12 .0 2.9 18.6 11.3 18.7 -12.5 7.8 24.9 6.5 9.3 -0.7 7.5 -8.5 28.1 5.1 22.2 17.1 8.3 3.3 -3.0 18.0 6,7 4.8 16.3 7.4 10.3 -9.1 13 . 4 12.2 9.1 -2.5 9.9 1.3 13.4 13.8 13.2 27.3 13.1 35.7 10.2 36.1 - 1 .0 46.2 -16.9 46.1 -16.1 31.1 -9.8 0.5 7.6 -7.1 4.8 0.0 7 .4 25.6 12.2 42.8 -11.3 8,2 0.9 3.8 2.1 9.6 7.3 2.1 9.5 3.6 7.7 6.3 7.7 7.9 5.4 6.7 6.5 6.2 7.0 10.9 7 .5 10 .9 4.2 6.1 4.6 2.2 8.2 4,0 6,5 6.9 6.2 9.3 9.7 5.0 1.5 4.9 10.1 2.4 3.3 9!& 13.2 -13.4 -6.6 4.1 2 8 6^ 12.3 -9.4 -5.5 3 .7 2.4 0.4 1.2 -1.6 -0.4 -1.6 6.3 -0.8 7.6 -2,8 6.7 -1,2 e!3 -3.8 -6.8 1.2 9!4 -4.1 -5.4 3.5 13 ! l -3.8 -11.0 5.9 8.9 -0.7 -4.4 2.7 7 .2 1.8 -1.1 -0.4 4.5 -1.4 6.6 -3.7 6.8 0.0 1.5 -1.1 5.2 -4.5 -3.7 0.4 5.2 -8.8 -3.7 -0.4 14.0 -14.6 -7.3 4.3 7.3 3.4 3.8 e!i 7.2 -9.9 -3.6 10.8 2.8 -2.3 -3.4 1.9 9.9 9.2 2,6 2.0 2.6 - 7 ,9 4.8 10.9 -3.1 -8.0 -4.9 1.9 11.0 2 .7 13.7 -12.4 2.6 -7.7 7.0 13.0 3.5 -17.8 -5.6 3.5 0.7 8.7 20.8 -8.6 -0.6 -7 .4 18.7 5.9 -19-3 -1,5 3.5 4.4 4.4 8.1 5.1 -0.6 -15.6 19.6 11.3 -29.7 -1.5 8.3 5.1 12.3 -13.7 11.9 -1.0 -15.1 17.7 7.2 -22.8 1.6 5.9 10.0 2.0 -28.2 12.3 -5.0 -12.7 15.5 7.5 -19.3 -0.8 7.8 7,3 6 .8 -25.3 3.6 -8.7 -2.5 12.2 0.0 -9,6 3.9 5.4 6,1 8.1 -18.1 7,7 -10.5 -0,4 12.5 -7.2 3.9 8.1 3.5 11.9 -8.9 8.4 -12.6 -0.4 11.2 -8.0 2.3 6.9 8.3 11.2 -1.3 4.0 -12.8 -1.1 6.5 -4.8 -0.8 6.5 9 .3 4.6 12.6 -1.0 -14.6 4.4 3.7 -6.3 -1.5 12.0 14.2 1.3 9.4 3.6 -14.2 0.7 7 .4 7 ,1 11.1 1.3 4 .1 10 .*5 -2.9 -6.9 4.0 10.3 8.8 -23.9 -0.5 5.9 6.5 6.2 -11.3 9.8 - 2 ,1 -14.5 17.6 8,7 4,6 5.2 -1.2 3.3 6!2 0.1 2.3 -1.7 7.7 4.2 -12.0 2.3 7.1 5.6 8.9 -17.4 6.6 -10.6 -1.1 12.0 6.3 6.9 -1.6 6 8 s!l -9.3 -4.9 1.4 5.1 8.5 -6.4 0.0 8.5 10.6 5.7 6.9 2.2 -13.9 1.3 5.9 19 !2 1.3 ,tg .4 .6 >.l .9 .6 .5 1 .3 -1.0 1.1 5.1 3.1 4,0 * 2 .7 9.0 6 .9 NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 102 -9.4 -4.6 2 .4 7 .2 6.9 12.4 -6.3 1.5 - 7 .7 10 . 2 9.9 8.2 -1.2 -4.8 0.0 8.4 5.6 -12.9 -0.7 6.0 7.5 6.9 -2.4 3.0 -6.3 -5.5 11.4 (SEPTEMBER 1985) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year 63. IQ IV Q ll.Q Annual INDEX OP UNIT LABOR COST, BUSINESS SECTOR (1977-100) 1951 1952.,... 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 19S1 1982 1983..... 1984 1985 41.9 43.1 44.9 46.0 45.0 46.8 49.0 50.5 50.0 51. 52.7 52.5 52.9 52.9 53.2 54.0 56.8 58.4 61.3 66.8 68.4 71.1 72.8 80.3 90.6 92.7 98.1 105.0 114.8 127.3 138.5 150.0 156.8 157.7 42.9 43.4 44.9 46.3 45.1 47.6 49.4 50.2 50.0 52.0 52.3 53.0 52.4 53.0 53.4 55.2 56.7 59.0 62.8 67.1 69.5 71.2 74.5 83.0 89.8 94.2 99.3 106.5 117.8 131.8 140.9 153.4 155.4 156.5 42.5 43.8 45.5 45.6 45.1 48.0 49.7 50.3 51.1 52.1 52.3 52.6 52.5 53.1 53.3 55.7 57.1 59.6 64.1 67.5 69.8 86.0 89.6 95.9 100.1 108.9 121.2 134.4 142.9 155.3 155.1 158.0 42.7 44.6 45.4 45.6 45.7 48.3 50.1 49.7 51.5 52.6 52.1 52.7 52.8 53.3 53.3 56,3 57 .3 60,7 65.4 68.8 70.1 72,0 77.5 88.3 91.9 97.7 102 .4 111.3 124.0 137.1 147.1 155.9 156,8 158.4 42.5 43.8 45.1 45.9 45.2 47 .7 49.5 50.2 50.7 52.1 52,3 52.7 52.7 53.1 53.3 55.3 57.0 59.4 63.4 67.5 69.5 71.5 75.3 84.4 90.5 95.1 100.0 108.0 119.5 132.6 142.4 153.6 156 .0 157.6 618. 9.0 8.9 11.3 10.6 9.7 7.1 6.9 12.9 10.5 9.0 13.2 2.8 8.8 7.7 1.9 -1.6 5.1 8.5 12.9 16.3 11.5 8.1 7.8 9.2 8.9 8.9 8.9 6.8 10,5 10.2 11.6 2.6 4.4 3.5 8.5 11.6 16.0 15.0 8.7 7.2 11.9 11.3 10.0 10.2 7.2 9.0 11.4, 10.5 6.2 5.0 2.7 9.0 13.3 10.6 12.7 7.3 6.1 14.6 14.0 6.8 9.5 6.1 8.5 8.5 11.0 3.3 4.9 3.7 MERCHANDISE EXPORTS, ADJUSTED, EXCLUDING MILITARY* (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 4,6 85 5,095 5,077 5,063 6,242 5,768 7,242 7,752 7,997 7,468 10,258 10,920 11,833 15,474 22,614 27,480 27,575 29,668 30,947 42,036 54,752 60,793 55,482 49,227 53,753 4,916 4,806 5,336 5,599 6,199 6,876 7,169 7,693 8,325 9,53 6 10,744 10,878 11,618 17,112 24,500 25,866 28,256 30,852 35,392 43,834 55,843 60,064 55,118 48,862 54,677 5,031 5,038 5,331 5,671 6,423 6,6 43 7,290 7,531 8,744 9,400 10,665 11,548 12,351 18,271 24,629 26,109 29,056 30,752 36,811 47,236 55,785 57,812 52,07 9 50,399 55,530 II! Q IQ 5,018 5,169 5,037 5,939 6,637 7,174 7,609 7,690 8,560 10,010 10,802 9,973 13,579 20,553 26,563 27,633 29,858 29,544 38,904 51,367 57 ,889 58,416 48,519 52,257 56,355 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 19 57 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 196 9 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977. 1978 1979 1980 1981...,. 1982 1983 1984 1985 0 .401 0.422 0,43 5 0.451 0.435 0.458 0.479 0.502 0.490 0.499 0.511 0.499 0.499 0.492 0.496 0.504 0.535 0.550 0.577 0.624 0.635 0.653 0.669 0.7 43 0.842 0.853 0.913 0.975 1.053 1.174 1.274 1.372 1.421 1.415 0.409 0.428 0.438 0.449 0.43 5 0.46 4 0.481 0,500 0.488 0.508 0.506 0.504 0.493 0.496 0.495 0.514 0.535 0.555 0.588 0.628 0.642 0.658 0.6 83 0.773 0,832 0.870 0.920 0.982 1.079 1.215 1.294 1.395 1.408 1.414 349. NEGOTIATED WAGE AND B CHANGES OVER LIFE OF CONTRACT 348. NEGOTIATED WAGE AND BENEFIT DECISIONS, AVERAGE FIRST-YEAR CHARGES © (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 196 5 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971..... 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Year IV Q 68. LABOR COST IB CURRENT DOLLARS PER UNIT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN 1 9 7 2 DOLLARS, NOKFIKANCIAL CORP. (DOLLARS) 8.8 11.7 13.6 12.4 8.4 7.0 10.6 11.8 9.0 9.4 8.3 7 .7 9.7 10.2 3.5 3.2 3.8 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 . 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 196 4 1965..... 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 620. TOTAL 14,243 13,449 12,412 12,929 14,424 17,556 19,562 16,414 16,458 19,650 20,108 20,781 22,272 25,501 26,461 29,310 30,666 33,626 36,414 42,469 43,319 49,381 71,410 98,306 107,088 114,745 120,816 142,054 184,473 224,269 237,085 211,198 200,745 220,315 6.1 6.7 8.0 8.5 8.2 5.6 6.2 7.7 8.0 7.5 8.2 5.3 6.7 7.2 1.2 1.4 4.7 6.8 10.3 10.9 8.2 7.3 6.7 7 .7 7.3 7.2 6.0 6.0 7.8 7.4 10.8 2.1 3.6 3.2 0.409 0.433 0.440 0.444 0.440 0.471 0.486 0.498 0.498 0.505 0.503 0.500 0.491 0.498 0.498 0.519 0,540 0.559 0.598 0.631 0.644 0.661 0.697 0.804 0.82 9 0.884 0.928 1.007 1.107 1.227 1,313 1.404 1.400 1.43 4 0.412 0.43 5 0.451 0.442 0.446 0 .47 7 0.492 0.491 0.499 0.508 0.497 0.497 0.494 0.501 0.497 0.525 0.540 0.566 0.611 0.641 0.645 0.665 0.716 0.82 5 0.844 0.903 .950 .025 .136 .255 • 348 .419 .408 1.43 8 3,812 3,394 3,966 ,064 ,416 ,711 ,012 08 96 7, 44 9, 10, 13, 16, 85 21,952 24,980 28,176 36,585 42,105 46,812 64,478 65,268 62 ,540 58,848 79,322 3,858 3,438 4,080 4,226 4,598 5,428 6,195 6 ,475 8,051 9,527 9,766 11,614 13,254 17,168 26,346 22,832 30,182 38,063 43,751 51,166 62,409 67,369 60,916 63,616 80,326 AVERAGE 0.40 8 0.43 0 0.441 0.446 0.439 0.467 0.484 0.497 0.494 0.505 0.504 0.500 0.494 0.497 0.497 0.515 0.538 0.558 0.594 0.631 0.641 0.659 0.692 0.7 86 0.837 0.878 0.928 0.998 1.094 1.218 1.307 1.397 1.409 1.425 (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) 6.5 7.8 11.6 8.7 7.3 6.3 8.0 8,7 7.4 6.2 5.9 6.1 7.2 8.1 4.7 4.3 3.1 6.4 9.0 7.5 10.6 6.6 5.6 8.7 8.7 5.2 6.3 5.2 6.0 6.1 5.8 4.8 3.1 2.0 MERCHANDISE IMPORTS, ADJUSTED, EXCLUDING MILITARY'* (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1951.. 1952, 1953. 1954. 1955. 1956. 1957. 1958. 1959. 1960. 1961. 1962. 1963. 1964. 1965. 1966. 1967 , 1968. 1969. 1970. 1971. 1972. 1973. 1974. 1975. 1976. 1977. 1978. 1979. 1980. 1981 . 1982. 1983. 1984. 1985. Annual 3,648 3,809 4,116 4,372 4,7 56 5,516 6,576 6,526 8,612 9,3 80 10,049 12,171 14,022 1 7 , 6 83 27,368 24,487 32,213 38,005 44,383 54,257 59,778 66,209 64,435 67,629 88,037 3,440 3,896 4,098 4,386 4,930 5,855 6,710 7,157 8,532 9,456 10 ,464 11 ,914 15,020 19,363 28 ,145 25,886 33,657 39,254 45,762 59,774 63,085 66,217 59 ,751 72,664 80,912 6.4 8.4 9.5 9.0 7.4 6.0 7.6 8.1 7.0 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.8 8.0 3.2 3.1 3.2 TOTAL 11,176 10,838 10,975 10,353 11,527 12,803 13 ,291 12,952 15,310 14,758 14,537 16,260 17,0 48 18,700 21,510 25,493 26,866 32,991 35,807 39,866 46,299 55,797 70,499 103,811 98,185 124,228 151,907 176,001 212,009 249,750 265,063 247,642 262 ,757 328,597 • NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain no revisions but are r e p r i n t e d f o r the convenience of the user. 1 This series contains revisions beginning with 1983. 2 This series contains revisions beginning w i t h 1978. {SEPTEMBER 1985) 103 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year IV Q IQ 622. BALANCE ON MERCHANDISE TRADE (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 19 80 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 652. 873 1,701 1,111 999 1,826 1,057 1,230 1,044 201 24 671 320 -1,668 -811 662 2,500 -601 -6.917 -11,158 -4.776 -9,726 -4,475 -7,058 -9,621 -25,569 1,058 1,368 1.256 1,373 1.601 1,448 974 1,218 274 9 978 -736 -1,636 -56 -1,846 3.034 -1,926 -7,211 -8,359 -7,332 -6.566 -7,305 -5,798 -14,754 -25,649 1,3 83 1,229 lh215 1,299 1,667 1,12 7 714 1.005 132 20 616 -623 -1,671 588 -2,739 1,622 -3,157 -7.253 -7,572 -7,021 -3,993 -8,397 -12,356 -17,230 -32.507 282 245 271 371 43 7 487 566 679 7 84 1,004 1,422 1 ,227 1,479 2,102 2,706 3,23 7 3,405 3,099 4,372 7,260 10,336 12,398 13,441 12,283 15,268 27 1 245 277 380 441 526 584 681 838 1,148 1,405 1,283 1,623 2,392 3,005 3,143 3.332 3,398 5,326 7,845 10,262 13,383 14,537 12,856 17,277 267 254 281 393 43 9 515 652 672 867 1,324 1,377 1,428 1,650 2,518 3.276 3,212 3 , 2 93 3,612 5,630 8,525 10,505 13,796 14,086 13,588 18,513 1,578 1,273 939 1,553 1,707 1,319 899 533 28 554 338 -1,221 -1,441 1,190 -1,582 1,7 47 - 3 , 7 99 -9,710 -6,858 -8,407 -5,196 -7,801 -11,232 -20,407 -24,557 245 263 283 416 466 562 679 715 890 1,392 1,311 1,497 1,821 2,643 3,098 2,973 3,281 4,107 6,352 9,328 11,017 12,752 13,210 13,893 17,442 668. EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES. EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER U.S. MILITARY GRANTS3 (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 6.605 7,225 7,354 7,997 9,574 9,34 L 10,92 I 11,818 12,435 12,428 15,902 17,097 18,51 I 23,958 34,293 39,260 41,112 44,83 49,18 . 64,go- SS,31" 93,94f 90,23; 81 , 4 1 90,764 6,85 6 ,963 7,806 8,56 L 9,452 10 ,610 10,94 1 11,654 13,071 14,75 1 6 , 6 8 () 17,288 18,445 26,259 36,730 37,474 42,200 46,699 53,819 68,178 82,85* 94,878 91,34( 81,71 88,99( 7,060 7 ,255 7,764 8,628 9,799 10 , 3 4 2 11,135 11,725 13,563 14,871 16,532 17,943 19,498 28,544 37,033 38,293 43,644 47,049 56,214 74,257 85,584 93,436 87 , 4 0 8 85,068 91,124 NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain 'This series contains revisions beginning with 198 series contains r e v i s i o n s beginning with 1981. 104 Year 7,079 7,441 7 , 6 85 9,030 10,002 10,795 11,559 12,118 13,297 15,469 16,561 16,508 21.039 31,479 38,609 40,703 44 , 6 7 4 45,692 60,775 79,454 88,730 93,501 81,077 85,396 91 , 5 3 9 3,067 2,611 1,43 7 2,576 2,897 4,753 6,271 3,46 2 1,148 4,892 5,571 4,521 5,224 6,801 4,951 3,817 3,800 635 607 2,603 -2,260 -6,416 911 -5,505 8,903 -9,483 -31,091 -33,947 -27,536 -25,481 -27 , 9 7 8 -36,444 -62,012 -108,282 1951. 1952. 1953. 1954. 1955. 1956. 1957. 1958. 1959. 1960. 1961. 1962. 1963. 1964. 1965, 1966. 1967. 1968. 1969. 1970. 1971. 1972. 1973. 1974. 1975. 1976. 1977. 1978. 1979. 1980. 1981. 1982. 1983. 1984. 1985. 1951. 1952. 1953. 1954. 1955. 1956. 1957. 1958. 1959. 1960. 1961 . 1962. 1963. 1964. 1965. 1966. 1967. 1968, 1969. 1970 . 1971. 1972 , 1973. 1.97 4. 1975. 1976. 1977. 1978. 1979. 1980. 1981 . 1982. 1983. 1984. 1985. 807 942 1,092 1,490 1,689 1,953 1,857 1,875 2,430 2,673 3,030 3,198 3,576 5,187 7,104 6,002 7,371 7,999 9,704 14,929 15,933 21,736 22,522 19,172 20,895 846 997 1,084 1,531 1,739 1,853 1,873 2,075 2,402 2 , 7 94 2,977 3,156 3,80 3 5,913 7,123 6,352 7,429 8,337 10,465 17,445 17,807 22,088 21,862 20,985 21,769 TOTAL 892 1,032 1,245 1,604 1,677 1,733 1,959 2,181 2 , 3 46 2,875 2,773 3,340 3,933 6,080 6,46 4 6,864 7,455 8,129 12,465 18,285 18,818 21,887 19,407 19,932 21.445 1,488 1,308 1,152 2,091 2,390 1,961 1,420 1,258 657 1,107 1,080 -170 -222 4,568 1,630 6,050 1,179 -4,905 -12 482 3,824 3,113 -3,772 -14,228 -21,382 3,817 2,356 532 1,959 2,153 4,145 5,901 2,356 310 5,132 6,346 6,025 7,167 9,604 8,285 5,963 5,708 3,563 3,393 5,625 2 ,269 -1,941 11,021 9,147 22,729 9,205 -9,894 -10,321 4,659 8,950 13,186 84 -31,937 -90,119 589 1,640 1,121 1,486 2,551 1,933 1,827 1,533 826 774 1,407 1,508 -690 903 4,589 5,421 3,569 -1,625 -5,013 2,065 124 5,012 2,597 -1,454 16,852 803 1,324 1,43 2 1 ,870 2,241 2 ,363 1,534 1,480 1,160 742 1,7 82 485 -710 1,903 1,958 6,126 2,627 -1,803 -3,138 86 35 2,771 3,982 -7,163 -22,261 1,160 1,257 1,336 1,721 2,421 2,025 1,181 1,435 922 766 1,354 444 -319 3,647 968 5,151 1,82 8 -1,563 -2,158 2,026 4,965 2,291 -2,724 -9,091 -29,624 5,591 6,133 6,533 6,939 7,612 8,834 10,139 10,860 12.6 40 14,362 15,481 16,678 21.261 26,911 36,979 34,653 43,495 50,597 60.7 87 78,972 84,906 90,388 84,849 99,624 112,921 15.047 15,766 16,546 15 ,930 17.795 19,627 20,752 20,861 23,342 23,729 23,591 25,778 27 ,047 29,222 32,801 38,599 41 , 6 0 6 48,600 54,129 60,050 66,569 7 9,43 5 99,219 137,519 133,000 162,425 194,170 230,316 2 82,138 333,536 362,573 349,974 365,524 452,539 TOTAL 669. IMPORTS OF GOODS AHD SERVICES (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) TOTAL 18,864 18,122 17,078 17,889 19,948 23,772 26,653 23,217 23.652 28,861 29,937 31,80 3 34,214 38,826 41 ,087 44,562 47 ,314 52,363 57,522 65,674 6 8,836 77,495 110,241 146,666 155,729 171,630 184,276 219,994 286,796 342,485 375,759 350,058 333,586 362,421 806 973 999 1,532 1,718 1,698 1,837 1,890 2,190 2,569 2,968 3,012 3,451 4,628 6,895 6,113 7,031 7,714 9,612 13,474 19,949 20 , 7 0 1 20,978 17,935 23,502 1951 . 1952. 1953. 1954. 1955. 1956. 1957. 1958. 1959. 1960. 1961. 1962. 1963 . 1964. 1965. 1966. 1967 . 1968. 1969, 1970. 1971. 1972. 1973. 1974. 1975. 1976. 1977. 1978. 1979. 1980. 1981. 1982. 1983. 1984. 1985. ^visions beginning with 1978. 2 This series contains revisions beginning with 1977, 6,016 5,5 85 6,233 6,511 7,023 7,40 8 9,094 10,285 11,609 11,654 14,495 15,589 19,202 23,055 29,704 33,839 3 7,543 46,462 54,200 62,842 85,193 88,934 87,636 82,865 107,616 6,050 5,639 6,374 6 ,691 7,211 6,247 9,413 10 , 1 7 4 11,911 14,011 14,898 16,803 19,155 24,356 34,772 31,348 39,573 48,502 56,957 68,092 82,821 92,107 87,358 88,875 111,257 5,900 5,998 6,428 6,907 7,378 8,317 9,954 10,290 12,641 14,105 15,178 17,499 19,817 24,897 36,065 33,142 41,816 48,612 58,372 72,231 80,619 91,145 90,132 94,159 120,748 Annual 1,882 1,82 8 1,910 2,227 2,444 2,662 2,817 2,845 3,043 4,616 4,999 5,618 6,157 6,824 7.43 7 7,528 8,020 9,368 10,912 11,747 12,707 14,764 21 . 80 8 27,587 25,351 29,286 32,179 42,245 64,132 72,506 86,411 84,76 8 78,023 87,609 667. BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) TOTAL 414 421 461 420 489 568 639 669 828 1,237 1 ,245 1,324 1,561 1,764 2,088 2,481 2 , 7 47 3,378 4,869 5,516 5,43 6 6,572 9,655 12,084 12,564 13,311 14,217 2 1 , 6 80 32,960 42,120 52,329 55,273 52,621 68,500 IV Q IQ 651. INCOME ON U.S. INVESTMENT ABROAD 1 (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) TOTAL INCOME ON FOREIGN IHVESTMENT IN THE UNITED STATES * (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 196 0 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Annual TOTAL {SEPTEMBER 1985) 3 This G. Experimental Data and Analyses (Nov.) (Mar.) P T III III Components of BCD series 26 1 Year and quarter Implicit price deflator, gross nonfarm business product (Index: 1977=100) Unit labor cost, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Nov.) T TTT Components of BCD series 26— (Index: 1977=100) 1983 I Q.... II Q... Ill Q.. IV Q... (Jan.)(July) (July) P T P 151.9 152.7 153.8 155.2 157.6 155.9 155.9 157.1 156.3 157.3 159.0 160,1 158.3 157.6 159,5 160.0 162.3 163.4 , 163.3 164.2 :it price deflator, gross nonfarm Implicit business product, Q (index: 1977 = 100) 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 -» 80 1984 I Q,... II Q... Ill Q.. IV Q... 1985 I Q.... II Q... Ill Q.. IV Q... Unit labor cost, all persons, nonfarm business sector, Q ^ (index: 1977 = 100) Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars 2 Year and month Manufacturing (Ratio) Merchant wholesalers (Ratio) Ratio scale 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars (ratio) Retail trade Arithmetic scale -I 2.2 (Ratio) 2.1 1984 Jan.... Feb.. Mar.. Apr.. May.. June. 1.71 1.72 1.72 1.74 1.74 1.75 1.30 1.34 1.33' 1.34 1.30 1.29 1.29 1.33 1.36 1.34 1.32 1.30 July. Aug.. Sept. Oct.. Nov.. Dec.. 1.77 1.76 1.80 1.80 1.78 1.74 1.32 1.34 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.36 1.33 1.34 1.33 1.36 1.35 1.34 2,0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1985 Jan.. Feb.. Mar.. Apr.. May.. June. 1.78 1.78 1.77 1.78 1.76 rl.78 1.36 1.38 1.38 1.35 1.34 1.43 1.37 1.37 1.38 1.36 1.35 1.36 July. Aug.. Sept. Oct.. Nov.. Dec. pi. 78 (NA) pi.39 (NA) pi.36 (NA) 1972 NOTE: The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA"> not available. 1 Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 1.3 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.3 1983 1984 1985 105 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly, Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes Net contribution to index Basic data Series title (and unit of measure) LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). . 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs1 (thous.). . . 8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (bil. do!.). . 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (percent) . . . . 12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100) .. 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.) 29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits (index: 1967=100). . . 36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dol., smoothed2 (ann. rate, bil. dol.) . 99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed2 (percent) 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index; 1941-43=10) 106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.) 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (ann. rate, percent) 910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators3 (index: 1967=100) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (thous.) 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1972 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 47. Industrial production (index: 1977=100) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (mil. dol.) 920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators3 (index: 1967=100) . LAGGING INDICATORS 91. Average duration of unemployment1 (weeks) 77, Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1972 dollars (ratio) 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing-actual data as a percent of trend (percent) . 109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent) 101, Commercial and i n d u s t r i a l loans outstanding in 1972 dollars ( m i l . d o l . ) . . . . . . . . . . 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (percent). . . 930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 3 (index: 1967=100) May 1985 June 1985 May to June 1985 Aug. 1985 July 1985 June to July 1985 July to Aug. 1985 40.4 40.4 r40.3 p40.5 0.00 -0.08 0.17 3 83 392 381 375 -0.06 0.08 0.05 37.88 37.40 r37.63 p38.35 -0.06 0.03 0.10 44 44 44 42 0.00 0.00 -0 .09 114.3 117.6 118.0 P119.0 0 .40 0.05 0.13 14.79 rl5.56 rl5.36 pl5.36 0.11 -0.03 0.00 141 .8 136.5 135.1 142.3 -0.11 -0.03 0.17 r0.18 r-3.68 p-2.18 -0.22 0.08 -0.22 -0.13 -0.35 -0.52 0.04 -0.09 -0.07 184.90 188.89 192.54 188.31 0.13 0.12 -0.15 954.0 962.8 r967.8 p975.0 0.29 0.17 0.26 11.3 r3.6 r8.8 p7.6 -0.40 0.27 -0.07 167.4 rl67.8 rl69.0 pl70.1 0.24 0.72 0.65 97,421 r97,473 r97,722 p98,010 0.04 0 .21 0.32 rl , 2 0 4 . 8 rl,205.6 rl , 2 0 7 . 0 pi,210.4 0.03 0.06 0.18 rl24.1 rl24.4 rl24.4 p!24.8 0.07 0.00 0.12 rl82,711 rl78,984 pl80,262 -0.46 0.16 rl59.6 158.9 rl59.3 pl60.0 -0.44 0.25 0.44 14.9 15.4 15.4 15.6 -0.24 0.00 -0.14 1.55 1.58 pi.57 0.40 -0.13 r85.2 r84,9 r84.4 p84.2 -0.11 -0.18 -0.11 10.31 9.78 9.50 9 .50 -0.37, -0.20 0.00 rl28,086 rl26,706 127,544 -0.29 0.17 0.20 15.62 rl5.73 pl5.86 0.42 0.50 rl28.3 rl28.1 rl28.3 -0.16 0.16 NA NA NA pl28,221 NA pl28.3 NA NA NA NA 0.00 NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. I t is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization f a c t o r . See the February 1983 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 108-109) or the 1984 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 67-68) for the weights and standardization factors. NA, not available. p, p r e l i m i nary, r, revised, e, estimated. ''This series is inverted in computing the composite index; i . e . , a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement. This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. f i g u r e s in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment factor for the leading index is 0.139; for the coincident index, -0.175; for the lagging index, 0.018. 2 106 G Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns 1J1111M] I M 1111 M 11111111111111 [ I H 11 [ I Ft M 1 8. New orders for consumer goods and materials, 1972 dollars, smoothed1 DEVIMONTHS FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH REF. FROM ACTUAL AND DATA YEAR TROUGH 7/81 l SERIES 8 BIL. DOL. II1111II111 M i l III1 111 III11] IIII111 M M l 111IIII1111 Deviations from specific troughs 8. New orders for consumer goods and materials, 1972 dollars, smoothed1 Actual data for current cycle Percent 21 22 23 24 8.7 8.2 8.5 9.5 37.04 36.86 36.96 37.29 8/84 9/84 10/84 11/84 25 26 27 28 11 .7 11 .8 11.5 9.8 38.04 38.08 37.98 37.40 12/84 1/85 2/85 3/85 29 30 31 32 9.8 10.3 10.5 10.9 37.42 37.58 37.64 37.79 4/85 5/85 6/85 7/85 50 • 42 - 40 - 30 #40 • 33 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH 10/82 DATA YEAR • 36 - 20 • 34 • 32 • 145 • 135 SERIES 8 BIL. DOL 22 23 24 28.3 27.6 28.0 37.04 36.86 36.96 8/84 9/84 10/84 25 26 27 28 29.1 31.7 31.9 31.5 37.29 38.04 38.08 37.98 11/84 12/84 1/85 2/85 29 30 31 32 29.5 29.6 30.1 30.3 37.40 37.42 37.58 37.64 3/85 4/85 5/85 6/85 30.9 37.79 7/85 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH REF. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH DATA YEAR 7/81 SERIES 46 1967=100 46. Help-wanted advertising 22 23 24 4.9 10.6 11.4 129 136 137 9/84 10/84 11/84 25 26 27 28 17.9 13.0 13.8 12.2 145 139 140 138 12/84 1/85 2/85 3/85 29 30 31 32 6.5 6.5 12.2 13.0 131 131 138 139 4/85 5/85 6/85 7/85 33 8.1 133 8/85 M25 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH FROM SPEC. ACTUAL AND TROUGH DATA YEAR 9/82 M05 * SERIES 46 1967=100 - 40 - 30 24 76 . 7 129 9/84 25 26 27 28 86 87 98 90 .3 .7 .6 .4 136 137 145 139 10/84 11/84 12/84 1/85 29 30 31 32 91.8 89.0 79.5 79.5 140 138 131 131 2/85 3/85 4/85 5/85 33 34 35 89.0 90.4 82.2 138 139 133 6/85 7/85 8/85 - 20 • 85 - 10 • 75 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i 11 • l i 11 ] 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -12 - 6 0 + 6 +12+18+24+30+36 Months from reference troughs -J 0 I I f 11 M 111 (f I (1111111 11111 U 11111 11111111111111111 -12 - 6 0 + 6 +12+18+24+30+36 Months from specific troughs NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of the July 1935 issue. *This series is an MCD moving average placed on the center month of the span. Specific trough dates used, however, are those for the actual series. Numeral indicates latest month used in computing the series. 107 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued [Mill 111 ii 11 ni i n n j ii i n j n ii I I T I I I I I UTI I I IT n i Actual data 21. Average weekly overtime hours, manufacturing 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 IT 1 1 1 T 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 ! l l P T T T I I I l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 MONTHS FROM REF. TROUGH CURRENT MONTH AND ACTUAL DATA YEAR Devi- Actual ations data for from specific current 21. Average weekly overtime hours, manufacturing SERIES 21 HOURS L,C,L D 4.5 1970 3.3 3,3 3.4 25 26 27 28 3.4 12/84 3.4 1/85 3.3 2./85 3.2 3/85 29 30 31 32 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.2 4/85 5/85 6/85 7/85 3.3 8/85 4.0 3.5 9/84 10/84 11/84 22 23 24 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MOHTH SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH 12/82 DATA YEAR SERIES 21 HOURS 21 22 23 24 1 .0 1 .0 1.1 1 .1 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 9/84 10/84 11/84 12/84 2.5 25 26 27 28 1 .1 1 .0 0.9 1 .1 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.4 1/85 2/85 3/85 4/85 2.0 29 30 31 32 0.8 0.9 0.9 1 .0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 5/85 6/85 7/85 8/85 3.0 • 2.6 • 2.4 MONTHS FROM REF. TROUGH CURRENT MONTH AND ACTUAL DATA YEAR -i 60 59 22 23 24 58.88 58.96 59.06 9/84 10/84 11/84 25 26 27 28 59.20 59.24 59.35 59,55 12/84 1/85 2/85 3/85 29 30 31 32 59.41 59.37 58.99 59.21 4/85 5/85 6/85 7/85 59.32 8/85 58 57 55 Median iiliniilimi iiiiiliinilimiliiinliiiiilmn 54 Actual 3.0 2.5 19 20 2.45 2.53 58.88 58.96 9/84 10/84 21 22 23 24 2 .63 2 .77 2.81 2.92 59.06 59.20 59.24 59.35 11/84 12/84 1/85 2/85 25 26 27 28 3.12 2.98 2.94 2.56 59.55 59.41 59.37 58.99 3/85 4/85 5/85 6/85 29 30 2.78 2.89 59.21 59.32 7/85 8/85 Months from reference troughs NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of the July 1985 issue. • 59.0 2.0 SERIES 90 PERCENT 0 + 6 +12+18+24+30+36 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND 2/83 DATA YEAR TROUGH 56 108 0.0 SERIES 90 PERCENT 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age -12 - 6 - 1 1.5 1.0 0.5 -J 0.0 HI him IIII ii in 11 If mi limihmi mm It -12 -6 0 +6 +12+18+24+30+36 Months from specific troughs • 58.0 #57,5 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued r 11 m r 111 H I T 11 i i r 111 r i r 11 N M 1111 ii 11 ( M 11111 ( n Actual 36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, smoothed' MONTHS FROM REF. TROUGH CURRENT MONTH ACTUAL AND DATA YEAR Deviations from specific troughs 36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, smoothedx SERIES 36 x ANN. RATE B I L . DOL + 40 + 30 +20 + 10 14.89 17.27 17.98 11.58 21 22 23 24 8/84 9/84 10/84 11/84 25 26 27 28 4.63 3.30 9.00 12.30 12/84 1/85 2/85 3/85 29 30 31 •32 8.99 0.18 -3.68 -2.18 4/85 5/85 6/85 7/85 Actual - 1 60 50 40 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH DATA YEAR 1/83 +10 30 57. Manufacturing and trade sales, 1972 dollars • 0 19 20 39.05 41.43 14.89 17.27 8/84 9/84 20 -10 21 22 23 24 42.14 35.74 28.79 27 .46 17.98 10/84 11.58 11/84 4.63 12/84 3.30 1/85 10 -20 25 26 27 28 33.16 36.46 33.15 24.34 9.00 12.30 8.99 0.18 2/85 3/85 4/85 5/85 -3.68 -2.18 6/85 7/85 29 30 20.48 21.98 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH FROM REF. ACTUAL AND TROUGH 7/81 YEAR DATA 3/70 57. Manufacturing and trade sales, 1972 dollars SERIES 57 MIL, DOL, 21 22 23 24 10.4 9.8 10.1 11.2 177143 176087 176602 178276 8/84 9/84 10/84 11/84 25 26 27 28 12.5 11.4 11.6 12.0 180437 178600 179051 179626 12/84 1/85 2/85 3/85 29 30 31 32 13.3 13.9 11.6 12.4 181644 182711 178984 180262 4/85 5/85 6/85 7/85 185,000 • 180,000 DEVIMONTHS FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH FROM ACTUAL AND SPEC. YEAR DATA TROUGH 10/82 • 170,000 - 12 SERIES 57 MIL, DOL. iiinimliiiii -12 - 6 nlnnilinimimlnm 0 + 6 +12+18+24+30+36 current cycle D SERIES 36* ANN. RATE BIL. DOL. -30 Actual data for 22 23 24 18.6 17 7143 17.9 176087 18.2 176602 8/84 9/84 10/84 25 26 27 28 19.3 20.8 19.6 19.9 178276 180437 178600 179051 11/84 12/84 1/85 2/85 29 30 31 32 20.2 21.6 22.3 19.8 179626 181644 182711 178984 3/85 4/85 5/85 6/85 33 20.7 180262 7/85 Months from reference troughs - • 165,000 • 160.000 8 • 155,000 —1 0 • 150,000 Months from specific troughs NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of the July 1985 issue. *This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. 109 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Current issue Series (page numbers) number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) A Agricultural products, exports Anticipations and intentions Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl Consumer sentiment, index Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl New orders, manufacturing, Dl Prices, manufacturing, Dl Prices, retail trade, Dl Prices, wholesale trade, Dl Profits, manufacturing and trade, 01 Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl Automobiles Imports of automobiles and parts Personal consumption expenditures 604 56 92 11/84 61 970 58 974 975 971 976 978 977 972 973 24 38 22 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 67 76 65 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 5/85 5/85 1/84 1/85 1/85 1/85 1/85 1/85 1/85 1/85 1/85 23 23 20 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 616 55 56 22 92 65 11/84 9/84 56 39 B Balance of payments—See International transactions. Bank loans—See Business Loans. Bank rates-See Interest rates. Bank reserves Free reserves Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve Bonds—See Interest rates. Borrowing—See Credit. Budget—See Government. Building—See Construction. Building permits, new private housing Business equipment, industrial production Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl Business failures, current liabilities Business formation, index Business incorporations Business inventories—See Inventories. Business loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Business saving C Canada—See International comparisons. Capacity utilization Manufacturing Materials Capital appropriations, manufacturing Backlog Newly approved Newly approved, Dl Capital equipment, producer price index Capital investment—See Investment, capital. Capital investment commitments, Cl Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars Cash flow, corporate, current dollars Civilian labor force—See also Employment. Employment Employment as percent of population Labor force Unemployed Coincident indicators, four Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded Commercial and industrial loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Compensation—See also Income. Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm business sector Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national income Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm business sector Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm economy Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction Composite indexes Coincident indicators Four coinciders, index Four coincides, rate of change Ratio to lagging indicator index Lagging indicators Six laggers, index Six laggers, rate of change Leading indicators Capital investment commitments Inventory investment and purchasing Money and financial flows Profitability Twelve leaders, index Twelve leaders, rate of change See notes at end of index. 110 93 94 29 76 61 970 14 12 13 33 33 13,25 24 24 38 33 12,23 23 72 72 67 67 67 76 72 65 65 4/85 4/85 7/85 8/85 5/85 5/85 2/85 12/84 12/84 35 35 24 12 23 23 34 21 21 101 72 112 295 15,35 35 32 46 73 73 71 82 5/85 5/85 5/85 11/84 32 32 32 26 82 84 20 20 64 64 8/85 8/85 14 14 97 24 66 11 965 333 24 37 48 66 75 86 2/85 2/85 2/85 5/85 22 22 22 51 914 35 34 11 29 29 60 70 70 7/84 9/84 9/84 5 26 26 3/85 2/85 3/85 2/85 9 9 9 9 5 442 90 441 37 51 89 17 62 51 89 18,51 62,89 920 10 60 920c 951 940 9 39 36 11 23 .... 74 60 66 9/85 9/85 12/84 7/84 12/83 "5 101 72 112 15,35 35 32 73 73 71 5/85 5/85 5/85 32 32 32 345 280 49 45 87 82 12/84 10/84 46 46 64 30,47 70,83 9/84 46 46 21 346 49 88 12/84 340 49 87 8/84 5 341 348 349 49 50 50 87 88 88 5/85 9/85 9/85 5 53 53 53 19 63 3/85 11 920 920c 940 10 39 11 60 9/85 9/85 7/84 5 930 930c 10 39 60 914 915 917 916 910 910c 11 11 11 11 10 39 60 60 60 60 60 60 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Series description (*) "5 9/85 9/85 5 7/84 7/84 7/84 7/84 9/85 9/85 5 5 5 5 5 Construction Building permits, new private housing Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial buildings Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales Gross private fixed investment Nonresidential, constant dollars Nonresidential, percent of GNP Nonresidential structures, constant dollars Residential, constant dollars Residential, percent of GNP Housing starts Consumer finished goods, producer price index Consumer goods and materials, new orders Consumer goods, industrial production Consumer installment credit Credit outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Consumer prices—See also International comparisons. All items Food Consumer sentiment, index Consumption expenditures—See Personal consumption expenditures. Contract awards, Defense Department Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dollars Corporate bond yields Corporate profits—See Profits. Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes. Current issuc Series (page numbers) number Charts Tables D Debt-See Credit. Defense and space equipment, industrial production Defense Department Gross obligations incurred Gross unpaid obligations Net outlays Personnel, civilian Personnel, military Prime contract awards Defense products Inventories, manufacturers' New orders, manufacturers' Shipments, manufacturers' Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Defense products industries, employment Defense purchases, goods and services Defense purchases, percent of GNP Deficit—See Government. Deflators—See Price indexes. Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans Deliveries, vendor performance Diffusion indexes Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Capital appropriations, manufacturing Coincident indicators Employees, manufacturing and trade Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls Industrial production Industrial production, components Initial claims, State unemployment insurance Inventories, manufacturing and trade Lagging indicators.. Leading indicators New orders, durable goods industries New orders, durable goods industries, components New orders, manufacturing .-. Profits, manufacturing Profits, manufacturing and trade Raw industrials, spot market prices Raw industrials, spot market prices, components Sales, manufacturing and trade Selling prices, manufacturing Selling prices, retail trade Selling prices, wholesale trade Stock prices, 500 common stocks Workweek, manufacturing Workweek, manufacturing, components Disposable personal income—See income. Series description C) 29 13,25 67 7/85 9 69 23 24 66 67 12/83 8/85 21 17 86 248 87 89 249 28 334 8 75 25 47 25 25 47 25 48 12,21 22 67 83 67 67 83 67 86 64 65 9/84 10/84 9/84 9/84 10/84 3/85 5/85 7/85 8/85 40 40 40 40 40 24 51 15 12 66 113 95 39 35 32 15,35 33 73 72 73 72 6/85 6/85 6/85 7/85 33 33 33 34 320 322 58 49 49 22 84,95 84 65 4/85 4/85 1/84 49 49 20 525 53 90 11/84 55 20 12,23 66 8/85 21 66 73 8/85 9/85 21 35 10 116 23 34 Credit Borrowing, total private Business loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Consumer installment credit Credit outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Credit outstanding, percent change Mortgage debt, net change Crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Crude materials, producer price index Historical data (issue date) 110 32 72 11/84 101 72 112 15,35 35 32 73 73 71 5/85 5/85 5/85 32 32 32 66 113 95 39 Ill 33 35 32 15,35 33 13,32 32 73 72 73 72 72 71 6/85 6/85 6/85 7/85 6/85 5/84 33 33 33 34 31 31 98 331 28 48 69 85 3/85 4/85 51 50 557 54 91 8/85 517 543 580 578 577 525 53 53 54 55 55 53 90 90 91 91 91 90 1/84 11/84 3/85 1/84 1/84 11/84 55 55 56 56 56 55 559 548 588 561 570 564 565 54 53 54 54 55 55 55 91 90 91 91 91 91 91 7/85 7/85 7/85 7/85 7/85 9/84 9/84 17 15 17 15 5 43 43 39 32 33 12,21 72 64 7/85 2/85 34 17 970 965 951 974 963 966 38 37 36 38 36 37 5/85 2/85 12/84 1/85 8/85 8/85 23 22 5 37 5 12 962 975 952 950 964 36 38 36 36 37 i/85 "8 37 5 5 15 971 960 972 967 38 37 38 37 973 976 978 977 968 961 38 38 38 38 37 36 76 75 74 76 74 75 78 74 76 74 74 75 77 76 75 76 75 79 76 76 76 76 75 74 77 1/85 12/84 12/84 7/85 i/85 5/85 1/85 1/85 i/85 1/85 1/85 1/85 7/85 8/85 '37 37 37 25 37 37 37 37 25 5 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Current issue Series (page n u m b e f S > number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) E Earnings—See Compensation. Employment and unemployment Civilian labor force Defense Department personnel, civilian Defense Department personnel, military Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments Rate of change Total Employees in goods-producing industries Employees, manufacturing and trade, 01 Employees on nonagricultural[payrolls Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, Dl Employment, civilian Employment, defense products industries Employment, ratio to population Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Initial claims, State unemployment insurance Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl Overtime hours, manufacturing Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age Participation rate, females 20 years and over Participation rate, males 20 years and over Part-time workers for economic reasons Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities Unemployed, both sexes 1619 years of age Unemployed, females 20 years and over Unemployed, full-time workers Unemployed, males 20 years and over Unemployment, average duration Unemployment, civilian Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over Unemployment rate, insured Unemployment rate, total Workweek, manufacturing Workweek, manufacturing, components Workweek, manufacturing, Dl Equipment—See Investment, capital. Exports—See International transactions. 441 578 577 51 55 55 48c 48 40 974 41 963 442 570 90 46 60 5 962 21 453 452 451 448 42 446 445 447 444 91 37 44 45 43 1 39 17 17 38 14,17 36 51 55 17 16 16 12,16 36 16 51 51 51 51 17 51 51 51 51 15,18 18,51 18 18 18 12,16 961 36 89 91 91 6i' 62 76 62 74 89 91 62 61 61 61 74 61 89 89 89 89 62 89 89 89 89 62 62,89 62 62 62 61 77 74 3/85 1/84 1/84 9 56 56 12/84 12/84 7/85 1/85 7/85 8/85 3/85 7/85 2/85 2/85 2/85 1/85 1/85 7/85 3/85 3/85 3/85 3/85 2/85 3/85 3/85 3/85 3/85 2/85 2/85 2/85 3/85 2/85 7/85 "5 5 37 5 5 9 5 9 9 9 8 8 5 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 5 8/85 "5 Federal funds rate Federal Government—See Government. Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from Final sales in constant dollars Financial flows, Cl Fixed investment—See Investment, capital. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product Food—See Consumer prices. Foreign trade—See International transactions. France—See International comparisons. Free reserves H Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Hours, manufacturing Average weekly hours. . Average weekly hours, components Average weekly hours, Dl . . Average weekly overtime Housing Housing starts Housing units authorized by local building permits Residential GPDI, constant dollars Residential GPDI, percent of GNP .. .. .. ... ... . .. 119 34 72 9/85 94 213 917 33 40 11 72 80 60 4/85 10/84 7/84 311 48 84 9/84 93 33 72 4/85 35 38 5 49 20 63 9/84 502 501 500 512 511 510 298 52 52 52 52 52 52 46 90 90 90 90 90 90 83 9/84 9/84 9/84 9/84 9/84 9/84 11/84 53 53 53 53 53 53 48 263 262 265 564 565 267 266 268 261 260 43 43 47 55 55 43 43 47 43 43 81 81 83 91 91 81 81 83 81 81 10/84 10/84 10/84 9/84 9/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 311 68 48 30 84 70 9/84 9/85 49 28 63,80 80 80 80 80 80 71 63 84 80 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 5/85 9/84 9/84 10/84 38 38 38 38 38 38 30 14 38 38 9 9 50 19,40 50b .... 50c 39 200 40 200b 200c 107 31 49 20 310 48 217 40 43 43 43 capital. 46 60 16 16 61 61 2/85 2/85 1 12,16 5 36 16 61 77 74 61 7/85 961 21 8/85 7/85 "b 5 .. Current issue Series <page n u m b f i r s > number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) 28 29 89 249 25 13,25 25 47 67 67 67 83 3/85 7/85 9/84 10/84 310 48 84 9/84 345 280 49 45 87 82 12/84 10/84 Series description C) 24 24 40 40 I Implicit price deflator, GNP Imports—See International transactions. Income Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm business sector Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national income Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm business sector Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Disposable personal income, constant dollars Disposable personal income, current dollars Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dollars Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm economy Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Interest, net Interest, net, percent of national income National income Personal income, constant dollars Personal income, current dollars Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars Rate of change Total F G Goods output in constant dollars Government budget Federal expenditures . . . . Federal receipts Federal surplus or deficit State and local expenditures State and local receipts State and local surplus or deficit . Surplus or deficit, total Government purchases of goods and services Federal, constant dollars Federal, current dollars Federal, percent of GNP National defense National defense, percent of GNP State and local, constant dollars State and local, current dollars State and local, percent of GNP Total, constant dollars . Total, current dollars Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted price index.. . Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit Gross national product GNP, constant dollars GNP, constant dollars, differences GNP, constant dollars, percent changes GNP, current dollars . . . . GNP, current dollars, differences GNP, current dollars, percent changes GNP, ratio to money supply M l Goods output in constant dollars Implicit price deflator .. Per capita GNP, constant dollars Gross private domestic investment—See Investment, Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Series description (•) Personal income, ratio to money supply M2 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Rental income of persons with CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent of national income Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction Incorporations, new businesses Industrial commodities, producer price index Industrial production—See also International comparisons. Business equipment Consumer goods Defense and space equipment Durable manufactures Nondurable manufactures Total Total, components Total, Dl Total, rate of change Industrials, raw, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index Installment credit—See Credit. Insured unemployment Average weekly initial claims Average weekly initial claims, Dl Average weekly insured unemployment rate Interest, net Interest, net, percent of national income Interest rates Bank rates on short-term business loans Corporate bond yields Federal funds rate Mortgage yields, secondary market Municipal bond yields . . Prime rate charged by banks Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields Intermediate materials, producer price index International comparisons Consumer prices Canada France Italy . Japan United Kingdom United States West Germany Industrial production Canada France Italy Japan OECD, European countries United Kingdom United States West Germany 46 46 64 30,47 70,83 9/84 46 346 95 286 49 15,35 45 88 73 82 12/84 6/85 11/84 46 33 26 287 225 224 47 40 40 83 80 80 11/84 10/84 10/84 26 U 11 227 40 80 10/84 340 49 87 8/84 341 652 651 288 289 220 52 223 49 57 57 45 47 45 19 40 87 93 93 82 83 82 63 63 5/85 9/85 9/85 11/84 11/84 10/84 9/84 9/84 5 57 57 47 47 46 11 11 51c 39 51 14,19 63 ii 30 47 108 282 31 45 71 82 9/84 9/84 4/85 10/84 283 284 47 45 83 82 10/84 10/84 47 47 285 348 349 47 50 50 83 88 88 11/84 9/85 9/85 47 53 53 53 13 335 19 23 48 63 65 85 3/85 12/84 5/85 21 51 8/85 8/85 8/85 8/85 8/85 8/85 12 12 13 12 12 12 8/85 8/84 i2 76 24 75 22 557 54 73 20 74 20 47 14,20,58 67 65 91 63 63 63,94 78 75 U 966 47c 37 39 967 23 37 28 79 75 69 1/85 1/85 25 25 5 962 45 288 289 12,16 36 18 45 47 61 74 62 82 83 1/85 1/85 3/85 11/84 11/84 8 8 8 47 47 67 116 119 118 117 109 114 115 332 35 34 34 34 34 35 34 34 48 73 73 72 73 73 73 72 73 86 2/85 9/85 9/85 9/85 9/85 6/85 9/85 9/85 5/85 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 50 733 736 737 738 732 320 735 59 59 59 59 59 49 59 96 95 96 95 95 84,95 95 6/85 6/85 6/85 6/85 6/85 4/85 6/85 60 61 61 61 60 49 61 94 94 94 94 94 94 63,94 94 5/84 5/84 5/84 5/84 5/84 5/84 8/85 5/84 59 59 59 59 58 58 12 723 58 726 58 727 58 728 58 721 58 722 58 47 14,20,58 725 58 59 See notes at end of index. 111 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Stock prices Canada France Italy Japan United Kingdom United States West Germany International transactions Balance on goods and services Balance on merchandise trade Exports, excluding military aid Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military Exports of domestic agricultural products Exports of goods and services, constant dollars Exports of goods and services, current dollars Exports of goods and services, excluding military Exports of nonelectrical machinery Imports, general Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military Imports of automobiles and parts Imports of goods and services Imports of goods and services, constant dollars Imports of goods and services, current dollars Imports of petroleum and petroleum products Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S, investment abroad Net exports of goods and services, constant dollars Net exports of goods and services, current dollars „ Net exports of goods and services, percent of GNP Inventories Business inventories, change, constant dollars Business inventories, change, current dollars Business inventories, change, percent of GNP Defense products, manufacturers' Finished goods, manufacturers' Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl Manufacturing and trade, book value Manufacturing and trade, change in book value Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars Manufacturing and trade, Dl Manufacturing and trade, on hand and on order, change Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers', change Investment, capital Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, 01 Capital investment commitments, Cl Construction contracts, commercial and industrial Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery and equipment sales Gross private domestic investment Business inventories, change—See Inventories. Fixed investment, constant dollars Fixed investment, current dollars Nonresidential, constant dollars Nonresidential, percent of GNP Nonresidential producers' durable equipment, constant dollars Nonresidential structures, constant dollars Residential, constant dollars Residential, percent of GNP Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars New orders, nondefense capital goods, constant dollars New orders, nondefense capital goods, current dollars Plant and equipment Business expenditures, new Business expenditures, new, 01..... Contracts and orders, constant dollars Contracts and orders, current dollars Investment, foreign Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Italy—See International comparisons. Current issue Series (page n u m b e r s > number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description 743 746 747 748 742 19 745 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 96 96 96 96 96 98 96 1/84 1/84 1/84 1/84 1/84 1/84 1/84 63 63 63 63 .63 25 63 667 622 602 618 604 256 252 668 606 612 620 616 669 257 253 614 652 651 57 57 56 57 56 44 44 57 56 56 57 56 57 44 44 56 57 57 93 93 92 93 92 82 82 93 92 92 93 92 93 82 82 92 93 93 9/85 9/85 11/84 9/85 11/84 10/84 10/84 9/85 11/84 11/84 9/85 11/84 9/85 10/84 10/84 11/84 9/85 9/85 57 57 56 57 56 44 44 57 56 56 57 56 57 44 44 56 57 57 255 44 82 10/84 250 251 44 47 82 83 10/84 10/84 44 44 30 26,42 245 42 247 47 559 54 65 27 77 15,27 915 11 71 27 31 26 70 27 975 38 68,81 81 83 91 68 68 60 68 68 68 76 9/84 10/84 10/84 7/85 6/85 11/84 7/84 11/84 6/85 11/84 1/85 40 40 40 17 17 17 5 17 17 17 37 36 13,26 68 3/85 17 78 27 68 6/85 17 38 26 68 6/85 17 97 11 965 914 9 24 24 37 11 23 66 66 75 60 66 2/85 2/85 2/85 7/84 12/83 22 22 22 5 21 69 24 67 8/85 243 242 86 248 42 42 25 47 81 81 67 83 10/84 10/84 9/84 10/84 40 40 40 40 88 87 89 249 241 240 25 25 25 47 42 42 67 67 67 83 81 81 9/84 9/84 9/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 40 40 40 40 40 40 27 23 66 8/85 24 23 m 8/85 61 24 970 38 20 12,23 10 23 67 76 66 66 5/85 5/85 8/85 8/85 23 23 21 21 652 651 57 57 93 93 9/85 9/85 57 57 68 63 30 30 70 70 9/85 9/85 28 28 30 15 29 70 70 70 8/85 8/85 1/85 28 28 28 Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index Leading indicators, twelve Composite index Composite index, rate of change See notes at end of index. 112 62 62 26 930 10 60 930c 952 39 36 74 910 910c 10 39 60 9/85 9/85 12/84 9/85 9/85 Current issue Series (paee numbws? number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description (•) 950 14 104 36 33 31 74 72 71 12/84 2/85 4/85 78 27 68 6/85 38 84 8 26 20 12,21 68 64 64 6/85 8/85 7/85 917 11 60 7/84 104 105 85 106 102 107 108 33 118 117 31 31 31 13,31 31 31 31 32 34 34 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 73 73 4/85 4/85 4/85 4/85 4/85 5/85 4/85 5/84 9/85 9/85 29 29 29 30 29 30 30 31 35 35 27 24 8 23 23 12,21 66 66 64 8/85 8/85 7/85 15 15 15 20 12,23 66 8/85 21 10 548 7 6 23 53 21 21 66 90 64 64 8/85 7/85 7/85 7/85 21 15 15 15 964 37 75 New orders, manufacturing, Dl 971 38 76 7/85 1/85 'l5 37 Nonresidential fixed investment Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars 9/84 9/84 9/84 10/84 40 40 40 40 55 55 58 Diffusion index Liabilities of business failures Liquid assets, change in total Loans-See Credit. M Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' inventories Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' inventories, change Materials, capacity utilization rate Materials, new orders for consumer goods and Materials prices—See Price indexes. Merchandise trade—See International transactions. Military-See Defense. Money and financial flows, Cl Money supply Liquid assets, change in total Money supply M l , constant dollars Money supply M l , percent changes Money supply M2, constant dollars Money supply M2, percent changes Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 Mortgage debt, net change Mortgage yields, secondary market Municipal bond yields 5 34 29 17 14 15 N National defense—See Defense. National Government—See Government. National income—See Income. New orders, manufacturers' Capital goods industries, nondefense, constant dollars Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dollars Defense products Durable goods industries, constant dollars Durable goods industries, current dollars Components Diffusion index 77 88 25 67 Structures, constant dollars 87 25 67 Total, constant dollars Total, percent of GNP 86 248 25 47 67 83 517 53 90 543 721 53 58 90 94 1/84 11/84 5/84 580 54 91 3/85 49 20 63 9/84 62 62 370 358 82 84 21 30 15 50 50 20 20 16 70 70 88 88 64 64 61 8/85 8/85 1/85 1/85 8/85 8/85 7/85 28 28 52 52 14 14 453 452 451 51 51 51 89 89 89 3/85 3/85 3/85 9 9 9 55 233 232 238 236 239 22 41 41 41 41 41 65 80 80 81 81 81 237 41 81 231 230 235 41 41 47 80 80 83 9/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 0 Obligations incurred, Defense Department J Japan—See International comparisons. L Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product Labor cost per unit of output, business sector Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Actual data Actual data as percent of trend Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business Labor force—See Employment. Lagging indicators, six Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Obligations unpaid, Defense Department OECD, European countries, industrial production Orders-See New orders and Unfilled orders. Outlays, Defense Department Output—See also Gross national product and Industrial production. Goods output, constant dollars Labor cost per unit of Actual data Actual data as percent of trend Per hour, business sector Per hour, nonfarm business sector Ratio to capacity, manufacturing Ratio to capacity, materials Overtime hours, manufacturing.... P Participation rates, civilian labor force Both sexes 16-19 years of age Females 20 years and over Males 20 years and over Personal consumption expenditures Automobiles Durable goods, constant dollars Durable goods, current dollars Nondurable goods, constant dollars Nondurable goods, current dollars Services, constant dollars Services, current dollars Total, Total, Total, Personal constant dollars current dollars percent of GNP income—See Income. 5 Personal saving 292 46 82 Personal saving rate Petroleum and petroleum products, imports Plant and equipment—See also Investment, capital. Business expenditures, new Business expenditures, new, Dl Contracts and orders, constant dollars Contracts and orders, current dollars Population, civilian employment as percent of 293 614 46 56 83 92 11/84 11/84 11/84 48 48 56 61 970 20 10 90 24 38 12,23 23 17 67 76 66 66 62 5/85 5/85 8/85 8/85 2/85 23 23 21 21 9 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Price indexes Consumer prices—See also International comparisons. All items Food Deflators Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product Implicit price deflator, GNP Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business Current issue Series number Charts Tables Sensitive crude and intermediate materials Raw industrials, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Sensitive materials prices, percent change Stock prices—See also International comparisons. 500 common stocks 500 common stocks, Dl Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business Prices, selling Manufacturing, Dl Retail trade, Dl Wholesale trade, Dl Prime contract awards, Defense Department Prime rate charged by banks Producer prices—See Price indexes. Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI Production—See Gross national product and Industrial production. Productivity Output per hour, business sector Output per hour, nonfarm business sector Profitability, Cl Profits Corporate profits after tax Constant dollars Current dollars . . . With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars Corporate profits before tax With IVA and CCAdj With IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income. Manufacturing and trade, Dl Manufacturing, Dl . . . . Per dollar of sales, manufacturing Profitability, Cl Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income . . Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate domestic income.. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Rental income of persons with CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent of national income Reserves, free Residential fixed investment, constant dollars... Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP.... Residential structures—See Housing. Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars C) 49 49 84,95 84 4/85 4/85 49 49 311 310 26 48 48 29 84 84 70 9/84 9/84 1/85 49 38 28 330 333 331 334 335 332 98 48 48 48 85 86 85 86 85 4/85 5/85 4/85 5/85 5/85 5/85 3/85 50 51 50 51 51 50 51 967 23 37 28 79 75 69 1/85 1/85 25 25 98 99 28 13,28 69 69 3/85 3/85 51 25 19 968 26 13,28 37 29 75 70 1/84 7/85 1/85 25 25 28 976 978 977 525 109 38 38 38 53 35 76 76 76 90 73 1/85 1/85 1/85 11/84 6/85 37 37 37 55 35 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Salaries—See Compensation. Sales Final sales, constant dollars Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars Manufacturing and trade sales, 01 Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade.. Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars Saving Business saving Government surplus or deficit...!! '. Gross saving Personal saving Personal saving rate Selling prices-See Prices, selling Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Sensitive materials prices, percent change Shipments of defense products Spot market prices, raw industrials Components Diffusion index Spot market index State and local government—See Government. Stock prices—See also International comparisons. 500 common stocks 500 common stocks, Dl Surplus—See Government. Current issue Series * p a g e numbers) number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description C) 10/84 213 40 69 57 56 973 77 59 54 24 14,22 22 38 15,27 22 22 67 65 65 76 68 65 65 8/85 11/84 11/84 1/85 11/84 4/85 4/85 17 17 17 37 17 20 20 295 298 290 292 293 46 46 46 46 46 82 83 82 82 83 11/84 11/84 11/84 11/84 11/84 26 48 48 48 48 98 99 588 28 13,28 54 69 69 91 3/85 3/85 7/85 51 25 17 967 23 '37* 28 79 75 69 1/85 i/85 25 25 19 968 13,28 37 69 75 1/84 7/85 25 25 114 115 34 34 72 73 9/85 9/85 35 35 91 60 5 962 15,18 16 12,16 36 62 61 61 74 2/85 2/85 1/85 1/85 9 9 8 8 446 445 447 444 37 51 51 51 51 18,51 89 89 89 89 62,89 3/85 3/85 3/85 3/85 2/85 9 9 9 9 9 44 45 43 18 18 18 62 62 62 2/85 3/85 2/85 9 8 9 561 96 25 54 21 21 91 64 64 7/85 6/85 6/85 15 15 15 107 108 32 31 31 12,21 71 71 64 5/85 4/85 2/85 30 30 17 1 12,16 961* '36* 61 77 74 8/85 9/84 Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields 1/85 1/85 7/84 52 52 5 69 69 69 69 9/84 9/84 9/84 9/84 26 26 26 26 45 47 38 37 29 11 29 82 83 76 75 70 60 11/84 11/84 1/85 5/85 1/85 7/84 9/84 26 26 37 37 27 5 26 81 282 29 45 70 82 9/84 10/84 26 47 283 47 967 23 284 37 28 45 79 75 69 82 1/85 1/85 10/84 25 25 47 285 93 89 249 47 33 25 47 83 72 67 83 11/84 4/85 9/84 10/84 47 35 40 40 59 54 22 22 65 65 4/85 4/85 20 20 370 358 916 50 50 11 18 16 28 28 29 29 286 287 972 960 15 916 22 10/84 U Unemployment Duration of unemployment, average Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment. Initial claims for unemployment insurance Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl .... Number unemployed Both sexes 16-19 years of age Females 20 years and over Full-time workers Males 20 years and over Total unemployed Unemployment rates 15 weeks and over Insured unemployment Total Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Defense products Durable goods industries Durable goods industries, change United Kingdom—See International comparisons. Velocity of money Raw industrials, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index Series description 320 322 Producer prices All commodities Capital equipment Crude materials Finished consumer goods Industrial commodities Intermediate materials Historical data (issue date) GNP to money supply Ml, ratio Personal income to money supply M2, ratio.. Vendor performance, slower deliveries W Wages and salaries—See Compensation. West Germany—See International comparisons. Wholesale (producer) prices—See Price indexes. Workweek, manufacturing Average weekly hours . . . Components Diffusion index 7/85 NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustm * The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears. 113 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES Series are listed below according to the sections of this report in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect relationships or order among the series. " M " following a series title indicates monthly data; "Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter). To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are referred to by number: Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Following the source for each series is an indication of the pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers for each series. I-A. Composite Indexes 910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106,111) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,66) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).—The Conference Board (24,66) 12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (12,23,65) 13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (23,65) 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (M).— Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home Loan Bank Board; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (32,71) 34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (29,70) 35. Corporate net cash flow in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (29,70) 36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (13,26,68) 14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (33,72) 37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2 and Federal Trade Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (29,70) 38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order, book value (M),-Source 2 (26,68) (18,51,62,89) 16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (28,69) 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers Association (33,72) 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1972 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (28,69) 40. Employees on nonagriculturat payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M).—Source 3 (17,62) 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).— Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96) 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source 3 (14,17,62) 42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (M).-Source3 (17,62) 917. Composite index of money and financial flows (includes series 104, 106, 111) (Wl).—Source 1 (1160) 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (12,23,66) 920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).— Source 3 (16,61) 930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total corporate domestic income (Q).—Source 1 (29,69) 914. Composite index of capital investment commitments (includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).—Source 1 (11,60) 916. Composite index of profitability (includes series 19,26,80) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source 1 (11,60) 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981, this series may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.) (28,69,79) t-B. Cyclical Indicators 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3 (12,16,61,77) 24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2 (23,66) 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M).-Source 2 (21,64) 43. Unemployment rate (M).-Source 3 (18,62) 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (M).-Source 3 (18,62) 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (18,62) 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).-The Conference Board (16,61) 47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4 (14,20,39,58,63,78,94) 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments (M).-Source3 (17,39,61) 49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (20,63) 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q),-Source 1 (19,39,40,63,80) 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (12,16,61) 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3 (29,70) (19,63) 6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Source 2 (21,64,77) 27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (23,66) 53. Wages and salaries in 1972 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).—Source 1 (19,63) 7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (21,64) 28. New private housing units started (M).—Source 2 (25,67) 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).—Sources land 2 (12,21,64) 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M).-Source 2 (13,25,67) 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (23,66) 114 30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (26,42,68,81) 31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories, book value (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (26,68) 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management Association of Chicago (12,21,64) 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1972 dollars (M).-Source 1 (14,19,39,63) 52. Personal income in 1972 dollars (M).-Source 1 54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source 2 (22,65) 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).-Source 1 (22,65) 56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M),-Sourcesland2 (22,65) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (M).-Sourcesland2 (14,22,65) 58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University of Michigan, Survey Research Center (22,65) 59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (M)-Sources 1 and 2 (22,65) TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars, producers' durable equipment ( Q ) . Sourcel (25,67) 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1, 3, and The Conference Board (16,61) 61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment by U.S. nonfarm business (Q).—Source 1 (24,67) 89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (25,67) 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1 and 4 . (15,30,70) 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (M).-Sources 1 and 3 (17,62) 63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).—Source 3 (30,70) 91. 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).—Source 1 (30,47,70,83) 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods, book value (EOM).-Source2 (27,68) 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).— Source 4 (35,73) 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source 4 (35,73) 68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product in 1972 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).-Source 1 (30,70) 69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (M).—Source 2 (24,67) 70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68) (15,18,62) 93. Free reserves (M).-Source 4 (33,72) 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (M).-Source4 (33,72) 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (15,35,73) 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Source 2 (21,64) 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board (24,66) 98. Percent change in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1 and 3 (28,69) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (13,28,69) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (15,35,73) 71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68) 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (35,73) Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).— Source 3 950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components (M).-Source 1 (36,74) 951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator components (M).-Source 1 (36,74) 952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components (M).-Sourcel (36,74) 960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about 600 companies ( Q ) . - D u n & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (35,75) 961. Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3 (36,74,77) 962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).—Source 1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (36,74) 963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries (M).—Source 3 (36,74) 964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (37,75,77) 965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 1972 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).-The Conference Board (37,75) 102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 104. Change in total liquid assets (M).—Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) 966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (37,75,78) 73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M).-Source4 (20,63) 105. Money supply M l in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) 74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (M).-Source 4 (20,63) 106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (13,31,71) 967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (M) .-^Sources 1, 3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (37,75,79) 75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M).-Source 4 (22,65) 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply M l 76. Index of industrial production, business equipment (M).~Source 4 (24,67) 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).— Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (15,27,68) 109. Average prime rate charged by banks 4 110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Q).-Source 4 (32,72) 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (M).—Sources 1, 4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (13,32,72) 78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order, book value (EOM).—Source 2 (27,68) 79. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q). -Source 1 (29,69) 80. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (29,69) 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q).— Source 1 (29,70) 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing ( M ) . - Source 4 (20,64) 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).—Source 4 (20,64) 85. Change in money supply Ml (M).—Source 4 112. 113. 87. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars, structures (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) (31,71) .—Source (35,73) 968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks, 46-82 industries (M).—Source 1 and Standard & Poor's Corporation (37,75) 970. Diffusion index of expenditures for new plant and equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, 22 industries (Q).-Sourcel (38,76) 971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).— Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1, 4, Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71) series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) Net change in consumer installment credit (M).— Source 4 (32,72) 973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M).-Source 4 (34,72) 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).—U.S. Department of the Treasury (34,73) 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).—Citibank apd U.S. Department of the Treasury (34,73) 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).--The Bond Buyer (34,73) 118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).— U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration (34,73) 119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4 (31,71) 86. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) (Q).-Sourcesland4 (31,71) I-C. Diffusion Indexes (34,72) trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).— Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 115 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued 976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing— about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale tradeabout 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 243. Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q). Source 1 (47,83) 245. Change in business inventories in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 290. Gross saving (Q).-Source 1 (46,82) 292. Personal saving (Q).-Source 1 (46,82) Change in business inventories as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47 r 83) 293. Personal saving rate (Q).—Source 1 (46,83) 247. 295. Business saving (Q).-Source 1 (46,82) 248. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 298. Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1 (46,83) 1 (47,83) 978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 249. Gross private residential fixed investment as a II—B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, 1 (47,83) 310. Implicit price deflator for gross national product Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the 250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars (Q).-Sourcel (48,84) source.) (38,76) (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) 311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).-Source 1 (48,84) 251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of Il-A. National Income and Product gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers 30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars (Q).— 252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars (M).-Source 3 (49,59,84,95) Source 1 (26,42,68,81) <Q).—Source 1 (44,82) 322. Consumer price index for all urban consumers, 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars food (M).-Source 3 (49,84) 1 (19,39,40,63,80) (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) 330. Producer price index, all commodities (M).—Source 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national 255. Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars 3 (48,85) income (Q).-Source 1 (30,47,70,83) (Q).-Sourcel (44,82) 331. Producer price index, crude materials for further 200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).— 256. Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars processing (M).—Source 3 (48,85) Source 1 (40,80) (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) 332. Producer price index, intermediate materials, sup213. Final sales in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (40,80) 257. Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars plies, and components (M).—Source 3 (48,86) (Q).-Sourcel (44,82) 217. Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars 333. Producer price index, capital equipment (M). (Q).-Sources 1 and 2 (40,80) 260. Government purchases of goods and services in Source 3 (48,86) current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 220. National income in current dollars (Q).—Source 334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods L (45,82) 261. Government purchases of goods and services in (M).-Source 3 (48,86) I 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 335. Producer price index, industrial commodities 223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source (M).-Source3 (48,85) 262. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser1 (40,63) vices in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or 224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).— nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural Source 1 (40,80) 263. Federal Government purchases of goods and serpayrolls (M).-Source 3 (49,87) vices in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (40,80) 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser- 341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagriculvices as a percent of gross national product (Q).— 227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 doltural payrolls (M).-Source 3 (49,87) Source 1 (47,83) lars (Q).-Sources 1 and 2 (40,80) 230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars (Q),-Source 1 (41,80) 266. State and local government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q).~Source 1 (43,81) 345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3 (49,87) 231. Personal consumption expenditures in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 267. State and local government purchases of goods and services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 232. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 268. State and local government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q),-Source 1 (47,83) 346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,88) 233. Personal consumption expenditures in 1972 dollars, durable goods (Q).-Source 1 (41,80) 235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,81) 237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) 238. Personal consumption expenditures in 1972 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,81) 280. Compensation of employees (Q).-Source 1 282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1 (45,82) Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q).—Source 1 (42,81) 241. Gross private domestic investment in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 242. Gross private domestic fixed investment in current dollars (Q).—Source 1 (42,81) 116 349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average changes over life of contract (Q)-Source 3 (50,88) 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,88) 283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business sector (Q).-Source 3 (49,88) 284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment (Q).—Source 1 (45,82) Il-C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 285. 239. Personal consumption expenditures in 1972 dollars, services (Q).—Source 1 (41,81) 240. (45,82) 348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average first year changes (Q).—Source 3 (50,88) Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).— Source 1 (47,83) 37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3 (18,51,62,89) 286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).— Source 1 (45,82) 287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valua- 444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over tion and capital consumption adjustments as a (M).-Source 3 (51,89) percent of national income (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over (M).-Source3 (51,89) Net interest (Q).-Source 1 (45,82) 288. 441. Civilian labor force (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 442. Civilian employment (M).-Source 3 (51,89) TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES—Continued 446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers (M).— Source 3 (51,89) 448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years and over (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years and over (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age (IW)-Source 3 (51,89) 570. 577. Defense Department military personnel on active duty (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (55,91) 578. 580. II—D. Government Activities 500. Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q). - Source 1 (52,90) 501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 510. State and local government surplus or deficit (Q).— Source 1 512. State and local government expenditures (Q).— Source 1 (52,90) 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 525. 588. Defense Department prime contract awards for work perlformed in the United States (M).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) Defense Department civilian personnel, direct hire employment (EOM) .-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (55,91) Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (54,91) Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).— Source 2 (54,91) II—E, U.S. International Transactions 602. (52,90) 511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) Employment, defense products industries (M).— Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (55,91) Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).— Source 2 (56,92) 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).— Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 612. General imports (M).-Source2 (56,92) 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 651. Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) 548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products ( M ) — 652. Income on foreign investment in the United States (Q).-Sourcel (57,93) 667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1 668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 669. Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1 Source 2 557. (53,90) Index of industrial production, defense and space equipment (M).—Source 4 (54,91) 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book value (EOM).-Source 2 (54,91) 561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).-Source2 (54,91) 564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).—Source 1 (55,91) 565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (55,91) (57,93) (57,93) 47. United States, index of industrial production (M) .— Source 4 320. 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96) United States, consumer price index for all urban consumers (M).-Source 3 (49,59,84,95) 721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris) (58,94) 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M) .-Central Statistical Office (London) (58,94) 723. Canada, index of industrial production ( M ) . — Statistics Canada (Ottawa) (58,94) 725. West Germany, index of industrial production (M). Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (58,94) 726. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (58,94) 727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-Istituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome) (58,94) 728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo) (58,94) 732. United Kingdom, consumer price index (M).— Department of Employment (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 735. West Germany, consumer price index Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of ic Analysis 736. France, consumer price index (M).—Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) (M).— percent Econom(59,95) 737. Italy, consumer price index (M).—Istituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 738. Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M), Central Statistical Office (London) (59,96) 743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Statistics Canada (Ottawa) (59,96) 745. West Germany, index of stock prices (M). Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (59,96) 746. France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) 747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Banca d'ltalia (Rome) (59,96) (57,93) Il-F. International Comparisons (14,20,39,58,63,78,94) (59,96) 748. Japan, index of stock prices (M). Bank of Japan (Tokyo) (59,96) Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402 OFFICIAL BUSINESS Penalty for Private Use $300 FIRST-CLASS MAIL POSTAGE & FEES PAID USGPO PERMIT No. G-26