Full text of Business Conditions Digest : September 1973
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SEPTEMBER
A UNITED STATES
DEPARTMENT OF
COMMERCE
PUBLICATION
U.S. DEPARTMENT
OF COMMERCE
Social and Economic
Statistics Administration
BUREAU OF
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
1973
DATA THROUGH AUGUST
BUSINESS
CONDITIONS
DIGEST
This report was prepared in the Statistical Indicators
Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication
areBarry A. Beckman-Technical supervision and
review,
Morton Somer-Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. Tunstall-Collection and compilation of
basic data. (Telephone 301-763-5448)
The cooperation of various government and private
agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing data are indicated in
the list of series and sources at the back of this
report.
This publication is prepared under the general
guidance of a technical committee established by the
Office of Management and Budget. The committee
consists of the following persons:
Edgar R. Fiedler, Chairman
Department of the Treasury
Julius Shiskin, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Department of Labor
George Jaszi, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Department of Commerce
Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisers,
Executive Office of the President
Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
persona/, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Na tion '$ economy.
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or /aggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have a/so proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Frederick B. Dent, Secretary
Sidney L. Jones, Assistant Secretary
for Economic Affairs
Social and Economic Statistics Administration
Edward D. Failor, Administrator
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Morris R. Goldman, Deputy Director
Feliks Tamm, Editor
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the ptans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
Subscription price, including supplements, is $33 a year ($8.25 additional
for foreign mailing). Single Issues are $3.25. Airmail delivery Is available at
an additional charge. For Information about domestic or foreign airmail
delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below),
This monthly report brings together many of the economic
time series found most useful by business analysts and
forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments,
emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of
business conditions and was based largely on the list of
leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Some other approaches commonly used by students of
economic conditions include econometric models and
anticipations and intentions data. The econometric model
concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships
among consumption, private investment, government, and
various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition*
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of
businessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of the
content of Business Cycle Developments has been retained in
this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of
other approaches have been added to make it more generally
useful to those concerned with an evaluation of current
business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section
of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not to
be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis or any other government agency of any
particular approach to economic analysis. This report is
intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report have
been published by their source agencies. A series finding
guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and data
sources, is shown at the back of this report.
enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable to the
Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402.
New Features and Changes for This Issue
BCD
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons
How to Read Charts
How to Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
SEPTEMBER 1973
Data Through August
Series ESI No. 73-9
PART I.
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
,
Government Purchases of Goods and Services .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
,
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
82
B3
B4
85
•m^K
86
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
,
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
f
Composite Indexes . .. .
NBER Short List
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
43
46
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D3
D4
D5
Foreign Trade
48
Balance of Payments and Major Components . . . 49
Federal Government Activities
54
Price Movements
56
Wages and Productivity
,
58
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components . . . 60
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
20
23
25
28
30
33
Selected Indicators by Timing
87
88
1
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
5
CHARTS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11
iii
37
39
Actual and Potential Gross National Product . . . 61
Analytical Ratios
62
Diffusion Indexes
63
Rates of Change
65
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the
transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this
periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through
September 1, 1975.
66
67
68
FAiTiS*
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
69
69
Personal Consumption Expenditures
70
Gross Private Domestic Investment
70
Foreign Trade
71
Government Purchases of Goods and Services ..
71
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
71
71
72
72
Shares of GNP and National Income
73
CJJ
C2 !
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
,
84
85
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
86
87
89
90
92
94
ANALYTICAL
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
82
B4
IE
*B7
Employment and Unemployment
74
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade ..
76
Fixed Capital Investment
77
Inventories and Inventory Investment
78
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
79
81
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
PART ML
83
E1 |
Actual and Potential GNP
E4 ]
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
95
96
97
99
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
F1 I
F2 I
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
F3 |
Stock Prices
103
103
104
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See August 1973 issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability
„
B. Current Adjustment Factors (See August 1973issue)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide)
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970 . . .
F. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business; Indicators (See June 1973issue)
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series
105
108
118
119
122
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
Changes in this issue are as follows:
f
A limited number of
changes are made from
t/me to time to incorporate meant Endings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparabMity, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.
1. Appendix C contains historical data for series 29, 39, 63, 68,
205-207, 211, 250, 252, 253, 410, 412, 515, 517, 519, 521, 522, 530,
532, 534, 536, 537, 540-549, 560, 561, 564,1 565, 570, 575, 600-602,
745, 746, 770, 854, 858 and D34The October issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
release on October 31.
iii
4 SESA PROJECTS on economic fluctuations
BUSINESS CONDITIONS
DIGEST
LONG TERM
ECONOMIC GROWTH
DEFENSE INDICATORS
COMPUTER PROGRAMS
FOR TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
A monthly report for
analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short
span of years.
This report brings together
approximately 600 monthly
and quarterly economic time
series in a form which is
convenient for analysts
whether their approach to
the study of current business
conditions and prospects is
the national income model,
the leading indicators,
anticipations and intentions,
or a combination of these.
Other types of data such as
foreign trade, Federal government activities, and international comparisons of consumer prices, stock prices,
and industrial production are
included to facilitate a more
complete analysis.
Data are presented in charts
and tables, and appendixes
are included which provide
historical data, series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of
variability. Also, a computer
tape containing data for
most of the series in the
report is available for purchase.
A report for the study of
economic fluctuations
over a long span of years,
1860-1965.
A monthly report for
analyzing the current and
prospective impact of
defense activity on the
national economy.
This report has been
developed from available
statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view
of the U.S. economy. It has
been planned, prepared, and
published as a basic research
document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers,
and students. It brings
together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the
complete statistical basis for
a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique
presentation of the full range
of factors required for an
understanding of our
country's economic development Some of the statistical
series go back to i860. A
computer tape file of the time
series included in the report
is available for purchase.
This report brings together
the principal time series on
defense activities which
influence short-term changes
in the national economy.
These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders,
shipments, inventories,
expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 50 time series included
are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the
activities they measure occur
in the defense order-production-de/ivery process. Most
are monthly series; although
a few are quarterly. This
publication provides original
and seasonally adjusted basic
data in monthly, quarterly,
and annual form. Charts and
analytical tables are included
to facilitate interpretation.
IV
The source statements for
FORTRAN IV programs which
are used by the Bureau in
its analysis of time series
are available from the Bureau
on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
PROGRAMS.—Two variants
of the Census computer
program for measuring and
analyzing seasonal, tradingday, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations and the relations
among them. They are particularly useful in analyzing
economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The
X—11 variant is used for
adjusting monthly data and the
X-11Q for quarterly data.
These programs can make additive as well as multiplicative
adjustments and compute
many summary and analytical
measures of the behavior
of each series.
DIFFUSION INDEX
PROGRAM.—A computer
program for computing diffusion indexes, cumulated
diffusion indexes, and
summary measures of the
properties of each index.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
3.
C.
D.
E.
F.
National Income and Product
Cyclical Indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons
E."ach of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 1952 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, the charts
contain shading which indicates periods of
recession in general business activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and3 several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
iritrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the ^ame degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series'with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of II.
The charts' for sections B and D include
centered lyiCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the mo$t recent months.
Referencd Turning Dates
i
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in thils report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate tJates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical 'high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded ar^a have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and 'empirical difficulties of designating a Current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
MCD Moving Averages
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis ( B E A ) summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of tot^! economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (G|S|P). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
i
Personal consumption expenditures is the
market valuie of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports.
Exports include receipts from domestic
output sold abroad, transportation, travel,
other services, fees and royalties and income on investments in foreign areas.
Imports include purchases of foreign
goods, payments for transportation, travel
and other services, military expenditures
as well as payments of income on foreign
investments in the United States. More
detail on U.S. balance of payments is provided in Section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an
accounting period. It is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
SECTION B
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses the same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 78 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that
of
the
coincident index. This facilitates
Cross-CBassification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
>.
Economic
Process
x.
1. EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
\.
\y
\y
Cyclical
Timing
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(9 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
IV. INVENTORIES
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(14 series)
VI. MON
Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (5 series)
Cash flows (2 series)
Flows of
and c
(7 ser
Credit di
(2 ser
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
Bank res
(1 ser
Interest i
(4 ser
Unit labor costs
(3 series)
Outstand
(2 ser
Interest »
(2 ser
AND
(18s
\.
X^
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(40 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT Comprehensive
employment
INDICATORS
(3 series)
(26 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(12 series)
Comprehensive
Backlog of investment
production
commitments
(3 series)
(2 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (4 series)
Investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
comparisons among the leading, coincident,
and lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable
developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D
OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com-
prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of; economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the jsalance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and'.expenditures for each component; for ^xample, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are $hown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures,
and their balance, and selected defense
activities. The receipts and expenditures
data are frortl the national income and
product accounts. The defense series are
only a few of the many available. For a
more comprehensive picture of defense activities, see Defense Indicators, a monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis publication.
Three other groups of series are included
in this section. The price movements series consist of consumer and wholesale
price indexes and their major components.
The series on wages and productivity include measures of hourly earnings and
output per man-hour and also rates of
change for most of these measures. The
final group of series measures the civilian
labor force and its major components, including unemployment rates for selected
segments of the labor force.
SECTION E
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960fs,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected
group of economic series. Percent changes
are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or
for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER.
Basic Data
(May) (F.b.)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCI) moving averages,*)
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
2n -, ./month for which data are plotted,
^ ("6" - June)
^ Roman number indicates latest
^/quarter for which data are
/ plotted. ("IV" =- fourth quarter)
Doited line indicates anticipated
data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc,).
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted iy2, 2,
or 2l/2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes, ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE in the
back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles,
or
2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES where series are listed in
numerical order according to series numbers within each of the
Digest's six sections.
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
Percent change
Average
IstQ
1970
1971
1972
2dQ
1972
1972
3dQ
1972
4th Q
1972
1stQ
1973
2dQ
1973
3dQ
to
4th Q
1972
4th Q
to
IstQ
1973
IstQ
to
2dQ
1973
1
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1. Gross National Product
200.
205.
210
215
217
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Ptir capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
-.
1958=100
Ann. rate, dol. ...
do
9 7 7 . 1 l; 5 5 . 4 1 1 5 S . 2 1112.5 114?.*
79^.7
7 8 5 . t>
722. i 74:. 4
145.4
144,9
135,2
146.1
141.6
5,476
S 37
4,7bS
5,34?
2,785
3,599
3,526
3,765
1199.2 1242.5 1272..'
7S6. 7
629.3
S34.3
149.*
1 4 * , 4 147^6
152.5
5,92.1
3,951
3,969
3 I 8 1 1? I s 7 7
2.4.
2 •'•;
2.6
1.7
0.6
1.8
2.2
C.5
205
210
215
217
2,3
2.0
A2. National and Personal Income
220 National income current dollars
Ann.rate, biLdol. .
do
224. Disposable personal income, current dollars . . .
do
?25 Disposable personal income, 1958 dollars
do
226. Per capita disposable personal income,
currant dollars
....
Ann. rate, dol. ...
227. Per capita disposable pers. income, 1958 dol
do
8
941. « . 911.'
939.2
797.-.
7 72. a
':. 7 7 . 9 5 6 5 . 7
9Z3.3
S26.1
7*5.4
571.6
949,2
943.7
8*!r .9
579.3
9 7 5 , 6 1M5.1 1-. 3 3 . 2
976.1
996.6 1C19.C
323 ..7
851.5
669.7
595.1
6C3.9
6i.4.3
3.1
3.4
3.5
2.7
2.3
2.2
2.1
C.I
22U
222
224
225
3,6 "3
3,816
2,7*7
3,711
2,716
3,765
2,74.
3.331
2,771
3,955
2, 341
4,057
2,87t)
4,137
2,377
3.2
2.5
2.C
226
227
667.2
496.3
726.^
526.«
117.4
78.
7 ;= : . 2 7 1 9 . 2
4.. 2
297. 9
795.6
553.3
132.3
98.2
44.6
33^.3
332.6
2.5
1.8
2.2
283.8
779.4
552.7
132.2
87.1
45.1
322.2
325.C
2.1
= 23. H
115.1
77. t.
734.1
531. •"•
12T.2
73.4
41 .«
3C2.3
311.6
752.6
512.5
UL. 5
74.9
1.3
-1.1
2.5
2.3
233
231
232
233
234
236
237
lcl.5
118.3
189.4
124.3
43. ,
81.2
56.9
'.=
691.7
734.3
863!5
746.'!
534.9
3,376
617.6
477.5
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230 Totel current dollars
231 Total 1958 dollars
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
233.
234
236.
237.
Durable goods, exc. autos, currant dollars
Automobiles current dollars
Nondurable goods, currant dollars
Services current dollars
do.......
do
do
do
63.3
SB. 2
26^.5
262.6
2 ?* 7
2 34.9
7^q.Q
135.3
1X . 6
15?. 2
I '4.4
**7. 9
178.3
118.2
41.7
76.5
3" S.2
54 :.«
122.9
81.7
41.2
219.,:
j!s
-1.4
2.8
2.4
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240. Gross private domestic investment total
Fixed investment nonresident let structures
Fixed investment, producers' durable equip —
Fixed investment residential structures
Change in business inventories total2 .
do
.
do
do
... do
6 4 , -t
31.2
4,5
167.5
114.0
4 j. .
42 * 7
6.1
t.
73.1
5 i .3
1.7
-4.6
72.5
73.1
-5.5
7 .3
75.8
;
174.7
116.3
41 , *
74.9
52.6
77. L
54,5
3,7
194,5
13C.9
45.3
85.5
4.6
134.1
47.2
fife. 9
59.6
4.5
59. r
1.9
2.4
4.4
5.1
4.1
5.5
4.4
4.2
1.6
l.r
1
242
243.
244
245.
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
240
241
242
243
244
245
A5. Foreign Tradt
-3.9
74^
77.7
-3.5
79.7
83.2
89.7
89.7
2.8
97.2
94.4
C.3
7.7
7.1
2*4.7
K2.3
71.9
152.4
26 ,7
IC'2.7
72.4
153.-'J
268,6
1C5.5
74.3
163. C
275.3
1C7.3
74.2
163.C
2.4
C.4
C.7
3.7
216.8
5.8
323.1
2.9
222.8
239.1
242.4
2.3
332.5
-2.2
346.9
C.3
357.3
-2,8
2.9
-5.1
4.3
2.5
731.2
77.1
93*. 8
46.6
757.4
80.6
24.7
104.3
47.9
774.9
81.5
24.6
1C7.9
49.4.
2.5
44.8
7i3.1
74.1
24.9
51.5
4^.7
166.1
45.9
172.3
45,*
182.2
54. 4
19C.4
5C.O
194.6
51.G
22.5
2- .6
1 ', 3 . 7 1C 2. 3
-3.9
2.-.;
26.6
105.1
-3.8
24.6
106.9
8,9
806.:ft. 3
87.5
35.3
4.1.4
143.5
Ann.rate, biLdol. .
do
do
3.6
6? . 9
,9
56.3
65.5
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
, ... do
...... do
219.5
96.2
74.6
234.3
99.1
7i.6
136.2
25s.
25.3
1.-4.4
1 " 6 mhj
76.5
74.4
1 i : . 51 4 4 . 3
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
do
182.3
1.2
2!
299.9
4,1
214.1
4.9
321.2
1.1
.4
3C9.7
1.3
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
do
do
6C3.9
684.3
72,5
24.1
86.2
43.9
699.6
73.2
72.6
42,'"
7° 7.1
74.2
24,1
91.1
45.2
171.4
49.7
164.9
b '"• , 2
-5.7
69.9
75.6
2.8
8.4
5.2
25C
252
253
2.5
1.7
-C . 1
3.1
260
262
264
£66
1.8
3.0
-3.1
270
271
274
275
3.6
4. 5
-,.8
5.6
2.d
1.1
-0.4
3.5
3.1
380
2ti2
284
286
238
5.7
IB. 8
4.5
-8.1
2.2
2.C
290
292
23.1
K9.1
11.6
IB. 2
2.7
-5.8
-7.5
1.7
12.7
-6.1
2.1
2.7
294
296
'298
826.-J
3.3
91.2
35,6
46.4
831. C
3.4
91.5
35.3
45.5
2.0
-1.3
4.9
1.7
-3.:,
2.5
0.6
'J.I
4.2
i.6
12.1
-1-.8
-1.9
273
246
247
248
249
144.4
145.2
1.2
0.6
261
21.7
-6«9
4.0
207
-»
250. Net exports of goods end services*
252. Exports
253. Imports
A6. Government Purchase* of Goods
•nd Services
260.
262.
284.
286.
Total
Federal
National defense
Statt and local
7b,\
147.5
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
270
271
274.
275.
Final sales durable goods
ChufflM in business inventories dur goods3
Final sales, nondurable goods
Change in bus. inventories, nondur. goods2
2<: 5. <s
211.4
3.2
2.3
AS. National Income Components
280 Compensation of employees
262 Proprietor!' income
286. Corporate prof its end inventory valuation adj. .
288, Net interest
2"* .9
69. i
644.1
s- "i
4.0
sic
AO. Saving
290 Gross saving, total
292. Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporata profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit, total2
A10.
273
246.
247.
248.
249.
261.
Ann.rate, biLdol. .
...... do
do
do
do
9.3
87.3
17.5
93.3
22.4
-2.8
19.9
93.3
-5.4
Real GNP (1958 dollar*)
Final sales, 1958 dollars
Change in bus. inventories, 1958 dollars2 . .
Fixed investment, nonresidential, 1958 dollars .
Fixed investment,residentialstruc., 1958 dol. .
Gross auto product 1958 dollars
Government purchases of goods end .
services total 1958 dollars
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
do
do
do
718.5
3,9
77.2
22.2
28.3
7V .1
76.1
aj!?
36.4
34.6
39. ^
139.3
13d.4
1 4 3 . •;•
£9. :
786.1
766.9
1.1
31.5
3 4 . <•
781.3
4.3
52.5
34.2
37,7
142.7
7 SI
6
8?
34
<~
6
4
7
41
=J
141.3
i.e
0.6
El. Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP gsp (potential less actual), 1958 dol 2 ....
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
55.9
24.3
44 .
25.
32.6
25.7
17.7
-5.J
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Seriias title
Percent change
Average
4th Q
1971
1972
1972
1stQ
1973
2dQ
1973
June
1973
July
1973
June
to
July
1973
Aug.
1973
July
to
Aug.
1973
4th Q
to
IstQ
ut a
to
2dQ
1973
1973
Series number 1
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Con.
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Competed* Indexes
810. 12 leading Indicator!, reverse trend adj.9
1987-100
do
do
do
825. 6 coincident indicators, deflated
830, 6 legging Indicators;
124.;
u*t. e
I25,c
143..8
1&2.2
136..8
125.1
129,7
144.1
131.3
135.4
159.6
149.4
134.8
142.6
163.3
153.3
116.1
151.0
165.4
154.6
126.5
153.3
166.4
156.5
133. 6
156. C
168.4
157,6
138.6
157.5
0.6
1.2
1.5
1.8
1*2
C.7
0.0
1.0
4.9
3,7
2.7
5.3
2.3
2*6
l.C
5.9
RIO
820
825
93C
93,9
112.3
H.2.1
K--.2
1 5.4
99,6
119*1
l}7,7
1 7.1
115.4
1C 1.5
122.3
111.4
111.6
122.2
1C3.1
122.5
U6.3
116.2
129.1
M3.2
122.1
122.8
118. 1
125.4
IC2.7
123.*;
123.6
119.4
125.4
NA
1C 1 . 9
121.7
12C.7
122.5
117.7
12C.6
NA
127.9
-e.e
-i.i
NA
-0.8
1.6
,i.4
U.I
-C . 3
-f .6
2.(j
2.5
NA
4.1
5.6
1.6
-2,9
813
814
815
816
817
39.9
126*2
LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS
do
do
813, Marginal employ rrwnt adjustments
614. Capital investment commitments
itn
do
do
818, Profitability
8t7. Serolth* financial flow*
B1, Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg.
21. Average weekly overtime hours,
production workers, manufacturing1
2. Accession rate, manufacturing'
•5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (Inverted4)
3. layoff rate, manufacturing (Inverted4)1
4?. 6
4C.7
4C.7
43.7
4C.6
40.6
0.5
-0.5
O.C
O.C
1
do
Per 100 employ. - -
2.9
3.5
3.7
3.3
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.6
NA
O.C
0.3
-0.2
NA
y.l
f
• ).4
0.1
-0.1
21
2
Thousands . . .
Per 100 employ. . .
291
1.6
257
1.1,
£45
C .9
227
C.9
236
0.8
236
•:.8
221
l.C
248
NA
7.1
-0.2
-12.2
NA
7,3
0.0
-4.0
O.I
5
3
86
32
127
171
154
112
174
121
183
122
192
123
191
131
NA
127
-<}.5
6.5
NA
-3.1
13.0
3.0
5.2
0.8
50
46
137.72 142 ,,46 144.46 145.94 1 4 7 . 4 7 147.92 147.75 148.16
70,6*5 7 2 , 7 6 4 7 3 . 8 ^ 7 7 4 , 6 2 7 75,317 7 5 , 5 2 6 7 5 , 5 1 5 7 5 , 8 0 7
7 5 , 7 3 2 7 8 , 2 3 ^ 7 8 , 9 4 6 7 9 , 7 2 2 8 C , 8 7 5 81,271 81,098 8 0 , 9 9 1
-C.I
C.C
-0.2
C.3
0.4
-C.I
1.0
1.1
1.0
1.0
0.9
1.4
48
41
42
-0.1
0.3
0.1
43
Hours
43.8
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Job Vacancies:
60. Number of job vacancies, menufacturing
46. Help-werUwf advortising
.. Thousands
1967-100
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Men-hours in nonegrlculturel establishments. .
*41. Employees on nonegrlcultural payrolls .
42. Persons engaged In nonagrl. activities
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment grate, total (Inverted4)3
4b. Average weekly Ensured unemployment
rate (Inverted*!*
40. Unemployment rete, married melee
(Inverted4)1
Ann. rate, billion
men-hours
do
5.9
5.6
5.3
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.8
0.1
do
0.0
©.5
O.C
45
t.O
0.2
0.1
40
-0.1
0.2
0.1
44
0.7
-C.2
3. ft
2.1 '
2.'*
2.4
0.6
1*4
200
205
47
996.6 1C19.0 1C26.6 1535.1 IC45.7
249.2
250.8
237.6
247.6
244.5
0*8
0.6
1.0
C.6
2.1
2.9
2*2
2.9
52
53
NA
142.11 142.32 146.66
1267.5
4 1 , 3 6 6 41,179 42,712 4 2 , 7 0 7
3 2 , 2 5 1 3 1 , 8 9 7 33,1X8 32,183
3.C
NA
3.7
3,5
o.o
-2.5
3.3
3.9
5.7
3.8
2.3
2.4
0.1
-2.5
56
57
54
59
NA
NA
-0.2
-C.I
NA
NA
G.I
5.3
-1.1
-C.9
12
13
5.7
-5,3
6.5
11.2
6.5
6
8
10
11
24
do
3.2
2.3
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.1
0.2
do
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.0
0.9
^.9
0.8
0.9
0.1
LAGGINQ INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
•44. Unemployment rete, 15 weeks end
over (inverted4)*
B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trad*
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production:
*200. GNP In current dollars
*206, GNP in 1858 dollars
•47. Industrial production
....
Aim.rate,bil.dol. .
do
1987*100
Comprehensive Income:
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
*52. Personal income
do
53, Wages, salaries in mining, mfg,, construction . .
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
•68. Manufacturing end trade sates
67. Final sales
•54. Sales of reteil (tores
59. Sales of retail stores, deflated
1 5 5 . 4 H:i5.2 1199.2 1242.5 1272. C
834.3
745.4
812.3
829.3
7<»3.7
K6.e U5.2 12-;. 2 123.1 124.8
861.5
2'3 2. 7
9J9.2
2,>2.1
976.1
230.9
Bil.dol,
112.24
Ann.rate, bildol. . 1^49.4
Mil. del
34,^26
do
28,977
124.66
1149.1
37,269
3C,328
131-91
1191.0
39,C79
31t87'>
138.93
1237.8
41.3C9
33,073
125.6
126.5
126.2
B3. Fixed Capital Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
•12. Index of net business formation
13. New business Incorporations
1967*100
Number
New Investment Commitments:
BiKdof
•8. New orders, durable goods industries
1967-100
6. Construction contracts total value
*10. Contracts and orders for plant, equipment ... Bil.dol
do
1 1. New capital appropriations, manufacturing . . .
do
24. New orders, cap. goods Indus., nondefense . . .
9. Construction contracts, commercial
MM. W. feat
floor space
and industrial buildings.
Arm. rats, thous . .
28. New private housing units started, tote!
*29, New building permits private housing
1967-100
12C.9
118.9
12C.8
118. 7
119.6
111.6
113.6
2 4 , ? 2 J 26,456 27,139 28,576 2 6 , 3 2 9 2 7 , « 5 9 2 7 , 8 3 2
29.76
145
8.84
5.76
7.33
2,4.92
165
1 .56
7.22
9.^9
37.64
17^
11.64
8.26
9.77
4- .*'•>
188
11.93
9.64
1C. 22
42.27
178
12.71
1C. 72
If .99
42.f*2
183
13.64
11.42
61.19
2.C52
167.it
V2.1-?
2,357
.192.2
78.70
2,4€3
199.4
85.55
2,4C4
188. a
61.53
2,221
166.8
84.52
2,128
174.9
72.15
15.92
81.99
23.24
31.99
23.24
83. :3
25.12
S7.65
28.68
97.65
•42.CC
2",6
13.33
-t .7
-3.3
6.8
.-1.6
11. 4C
1C. 83
-0.2
-5.0
6.3
U.6
2.5
16.7
5.6
99. 7C
2,176
153.4
96.72
2.C45
147. t)
18.0
2.3
-12.3
-3,0
-6.0
-4.2
8.7
O.C
-5.3
99.56 1G2.S*;
2.0
3.0
7.4
8.1
42.7*
177
13.75
16.4
-3.1
-4.7
-7.6
-11.7
9
28
29
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industrial* ....
97. Becklog of capital appropriations, mfg.*
Bil.doL,EOP....
do
1C. 9
1A.2
96
97
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Con.
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Average
1971
1972
4th Q
IstQ
1972
1973
i
Percent change
2dQ
1973
June
July
Aug.
1973
1973
1973
July
to
Aug.
1973
June
to
July
1973
4th Q
to
IstQ
IstQ
to
2dQ
1973
1973
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B3. Fixed Capital Invettment-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
do
31.22
r,6.5-r
3*. 39
121.46
91.94
96.19
57.76
127.31 134.77
143.42
146.20
147.95
NA
1.2
NA
NA
-1,7.3
NA
4.6
1.6
61
5.9
6.4
69
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
*31. Changs, mfg. and trade invan., took value*
37. Purchased materials, percent m port log
higher inventories2
20. Change in mfrs.' inventories of mettrWi,
supplies, book value1
26. Buying policy, production materiali,
commitments 60 dayt or longer3®
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
dower deliveries3®
. .
25. Chft. in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus.2 ...
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
......do
6.1
3.6
5.2
u!i
55
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
65
do
-6
4.6
21.5
4.5
22.9
61
59
-3.6
28.3
18.*
62
63
4.8
5.5
6.9
7.6
54
57
63
66
78
78
32
9'.'
46
S3
73
1. 4
83
91;
39
86
38
35.3C
194.1*
35.80
199.52
36.' 6
123.:
131.5
147.4
l.C
Percent
Bit dol
14.7
,.96
.2.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
•71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value5 .... Bil.dol.,EOP .... 1 8 3 . 6 2
34.81
do
65, Mfm'lnven. of finished goods, book value5 ..
3.2'
2' 5 . 2 5
2t.7i
3.76
1.91
2.94
1
1
6.3
-0 . 1 245
1,4
31
-4
-3
37
'''.7
NA
2.8
4
-2
3
12
26
ID
f .97
7
32
25
2.9
1.8
71
65
11. 1
23
-6.6
19
-1
-1.85
sslr'
2.;6.75
36.72
NA
NA
0.7
".1
NA
NA
17C.1
178.1
191.0
4.7
7.2
174.75
1C5.83
2.8
' ,7
«
.7
1.19
65. Prices, Costs, and Prof its
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
•23. Industrial materials prices®
1967-100
!•' 7 . 1
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks Q
1941-43-10
98.29
Profiu and Prof it Margins:
*18. Corporate profits, after taxes, current dol. ...
18 Corporate prof its, after taxes, 1958 dollars
22. Ratio, profits to income originating in
corporate business ^
15. Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.3 .'. .
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost. mfg.
34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars ....
36 Net cash flow corporate 1958 dollars
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
Percent
Cents
1967-100
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Comprehensive Wnolwii Prices:
55. Wholesale prices. Industrial commodities®. . . 1967=100
55c. Chg. in whste. prices, Indus, commod.. S/A3 . .
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®. .... 1967=100
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonf inancial corporations
*82. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
do
Dollars
1967=100
115. C^
47.6
8C
1.0
-1.9
0.8
6C.3
66.9
71.6
n.9
39.6
42. 8
47 .M
49.2
9.8
97.3
99.2
82.9
95.2
5.8
4.4
!•::•!. 3
U 1.9
&r .4
67.4
71.7
4.7
1'3.4
V. 9.2
76.1
114. C
117.9
•.' .1
113.8
117.9
~ .2
119.6
126.2
126.9
12S.5
118.2
I .962
119.5
121.3
1
117."
103.
12.1
55. 4
9.5
4.3
ft. 9
122.6
163.7
' 8«t7
113.9
•7.3
123.6
H.I
4.6
1C 5 . 4 1C6.3
114.7
105.4
108.4
-0.8
126.9
,.1
129.8
127.4
0.4
134. £
-0.9
2.8
78.3
125. 7
1.2
12 3. -8
126.9
l.C
13 ".9
*".q74
121.7
122. A
122.8
123.8
12.44
5.02
5.46
1C. 4 3
5.06
5.31
1C. 42
55.69
14.57
15.34
5.59
NA
22.90
23. 6C
o.c
-cue
0.4
C.3
3.2
0.3
0.8
-1.36
-7.42
-6.38
6.57
-5.37
4. -73
NA
29.15
NA
-4.83
NA
7.f
4.7
16
18
0.6
1.9
5.C
2.9
22
15
17
34
35
3.6
0.4
4.2
55
55
58
1.3
1.9
63
1.1
1.1
1.4
1.8
66
62
0.3
2.1
7.2
6.1
1.8
0.6
3.3
• c.i
B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
Ann.rate,percent . .
85. Change in money supply (Ml)3
1.72
7.97
8.58
6.46
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits
do
'.
5.69
1^ ,f 7
at commercial banks (M2)2
103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at
2
do
11*41
8.55
banks and nonbank institutions (M3)
12.71
12.25
43.71
46.93
33. Change in mortgage debt2 .
.... Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
54.1'-*
36.15
do
16.43
38.81
1.65
6.7C
do .,...;.
23.96
19.51
8.9S
15.91
do
1 10. Total private borrowing
121.2'.' 1 4 8 . 9 5 196.24 176.53
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted4)® . . Mil. dol
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inv.4)* 5 . Percent EOP ....
NA
102
-2.86
-7.17
22.38
4.43
-5.2
174.
7.87
-20.48
-3.93
-1.1
103
33
112
113
11C
1 8 C . 2 1 2 7 6 . 1 9 150.15
NA
NA
2.11
-14.4
NA
7.8
NA
-32.3
-0.10
•".01
14
39
-123
-483
- 1 , 2 5 8 -1.618 -1,653 -1,384 -1,754
-65
170
775
36C
93
Interest Rates:
114 Treasury bill rate2®
Percent
4.34
6.25
85
3.77
1.92
-207
115 Treasury bond yields ®
117. Municipal ibond yields2®
4.26
-1.56
NA
8.48
1.92
Mil. dol
do
do
do.
2C.C3
5<j
8.33
-6.86
-4.38
1.6S
159.74
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Bank Reswves:
93 Frae reserves (inverted4)2 ®
2
iel?3
1.51
7.85
166.69
7.^9
5.74
5.64
5.43
5.26
149.45
198.45
155.33
21.5
4*85
5.64
6.61
7.19
8. -32
8.67
C.83
C.65
0.79
C.97
7,54
7. £ 8
7.71
7.73
7.97
8.45
1.24
L.48
0.14
G.f.3
C.32
".49
C.C8
0.08
5*61
6.10
6.23
6-32
6.53
6.35
5.16
5.16
5.18
5.4C
5". 4 3
<:!22
0.13
c.co
114
116
115
117
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Con.
Basic data1
Series title
Percent change
ft
Unit
of
measure
Average
1971
1972
4th Q
1972
1st a
1973
2dQ
1973
June
1973
July
1973
Aug.
1973
June
to
July
1973
July
to
Aug.
1973
4th Q
to
1stU
1973
IstQ
to
2dQ
1973
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B6. Monty end Credit-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt:
66. Coniumir irtttaJIment debt9
Btl.doLEOP ....
*72, Commercial and industrial loans outstanding . Bil dol
Interest Rates:
•87, Bank rates on short-term business loan*3®. . . Percent . .
1 18, Mortgage yields, rasi Jontisl3®
.... do .
NA
l f - 8 . 5 3 124.4* 124.44 13":. 4 3 1 2 5 . 4 4 1 3 5 . 4 4 137,4!
9 7 , 8 9 1 C 4 . 9 8 1 C 6 . 2 C ue.1': 110.53
9v.67
84.3:
97.25
1.4
1.8
NA
2.2
4,8
8,0
3. a
7.2
66
72
^ . 3C
NA
0.19
C.91
0.83
i1. 22
67
118
235
15.6
235
9.4
-5.6
9.2
500
502
SG6
508
512
U'J29
1,052
1,1S9
6!> 9
-2.81D
4te6
482
278
16S
5,054
K,875
25S
515
517
519
521
522
18.4
7.0
-0.7
2,6
3.0
23.5
14.7
600
601
602
264
616
621
640
625
6.32
7.7-:
3,32
7.53
6.?3
7.57
-16:
3,634
1,454*
246
3,794
-529
4,1-3
1,71.6
3:i2
4,6.:I2
-513
4,449
1,928
3*5
4,962
-278
5,141
2,266
4C2
5,418
7
5,623
2,159
439
5,615
dC7
-187
-696
-2,389
-5,492
-7,439
-4.6J9
-1,544
-2,038
-2,467
-3,469
-2,534
-67C
-1,299
-1,751
-1,5^6
150
-247
-592
-947
616
235
-314
-732
-1,484
1C, 4 99
376
-22.2
198.9
221, ,
71.6
6,788
1,769
1.64
2,775
-15.9
-5 .0
228.7
236.9
253.6
244.6
258.6
26:.3
74 .<»
72.4
74.3
7 , : 7 36 , S 2 8
7,376
1.T4C
1 , 5 10 1,865
1.56
i.,72
1.79
2,99*
3tO'T2
2,963
262.4
2€2.4
74.2
6,778
1 ,526
1.99
2,856
6,63C
1,548
2.18
2,861
NA
NA
1.2C
2,129
NA
N'A
1.9C
NA
NA
NA
-45. 0
-25,6
NA
NA
58.3
NA
-i.a
5.0
3.5
1.5
-O.I
-8.1
-18.1
11.2
-3.6
136,6
121.3
C.3
113.9
ivi.r
0.2
-0.4
-1.3
1.8
1.7
5.8
1.7
1.4
0.4
4.8
1.9
2.2
-0.1
S.2
211
781
781
750
129.7
0.4
1.2
1.6
740
7.58
7.8C
7.39
8,19
NA
-16
5,778
2,lfJ9
436
5,794
L- 6
3,668
2,264
425
5,762
-17
6,C04
NA
NA
6,021
D. OTHIER KEY INDICATORS
D1. Foreign Trad*
500.
602.
506.
508.
512.
Mil. dol
Merchandise trade balance1
Exports, excluding military aid
do
Export orders, dur. goods axe. motor vehicles . ......do
Export orders nonelectrical machinery
1957-53-100 ....
General imports
Mil. dol
250.
515.
517.
519.
521.
522.
Balance on goods and services1
Mil.dol
Bal. on goods, services, and remittances1 . . . .
do
1
Balance on current account
do
Balance on cure. eect. end long-term capital1 .
do
Net liquidity balance1
do
Official reserve transactions balance1 . .
do
122
1.6
7.3
-2.5
-123
2,3
NA
NA
18.6
4.4
D2. US, Balance of Payments
03. Federal Government Activities
600.
601,
602.
264.
616.
621.
646.
625.
Federal surplus or deficit, NIA1
Federal receipts, NIA
Federal expenditures, NIA
National defense purchases
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Department obligations, procurement
New ordure, defense products
Military contract awards in U.S
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
... do
....do.. . .
do
Mil.dol
do
Bil.dol
Mil.dol
D4. Prico Movements
21 1.
781.
76 ic.
750.
Fixed wtd. price index, gross prlv. product . . . 1956-100
Consumer prices, all items®
1967-100
Change in consumer prices, all items, S/A1 . . .Percent
Wholesale prices, all commodities®
1967-100
119.1
142.9
126.9
C.3
121.2
145.3
128.7
C.7
127.0
14B.1
131.5
C.6
133.6
132.4
S.6
136.7
132.7
3.2
134.9
135.1
1.9
142.7
137.9
141.0
142.7
145,0
146. Q
146.9
147.5
0.6
12'5.3
•:.3
D5. Wages and Productivity
740. Average hourly earnings, production workers
in private nonfsrm economy
..;... do
741. Real avtirage hourly earnings, production
workers in private nonfarm economy ... .
.... do
859. Reel spendable avg. weekly earnings,
nonago. prod, of nonsupv. workers
1967 dol
745. Avg. hourly compensation, private nonfarm .. 1967-100
746. Real avg. hourly comp., private nonfarm
..„.. do
770. Output per manhour, total private economy .
do
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm . . ...... do
11C. 8
110.3
110-4
1K.9
1C 9. 2
f .5
-1.5
-0.3
-0.5
741
95.85
147.5
114.6
115.9
115.6
S5.62
149.6
113.8
115.8
115.4
95-29
96,16
94.34
0.9
-1.9
-1.4
2.6
I. I
1 '"'
1.2
-0.2
1.4
-0.7
-3.1
-C.2
859
745
746
770
858
37,112 3 6 , 5 4 2 87,175 6 7 , 5 8 6 e e f 5 6 2 8 8 , 9 3 2 68,81C 6 8 , 6 5 1
79,12: 3 1 , 7 5 2 3 2 , 5 6 7 83,190 8 4 , 2 7 5 8 4 , 6 7 4 84,614 8 4 , 4 3 4
4,217
4, 8 4 ?
4,396
4,258
4,357
4,196
4,993
<*,6C3
-0.1
-0.1
1.5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.5
0.5
0.8
4.6
1.1
1.2
0.9
841
842
843
105. S
1 1C . I 111.1
92.51
131.6
96.31
14 .7
11.2.3
1 1. 2 . 8
1X2.1
i-ie.5
108.7
97. r s
143.9
113.3
114.8
114.2
06. Civilian Labor Force and Major
Components
841. Total civilian laSwr force
Thousands
842, Total civilian employment
do
643. Number of persons unemployed (Inverted)4 . . ......do
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing3 . . . Percent
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Ratio
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods industries
......do
853. Ratio, prod., bus. equip, to consumer goods . . 1967-100
854, Ratio, personal savings to disposable
Ratio
860. Ratio, help-wonted advertising to
persons unemployed
•
. do
857. Vacancy rate n total rental housing1®
Percent
1,5:
78, fc
1.51
11.5
l.<*6
82.9
1.42
£3.3
1,43
1.44
1.41
NA
-2.1
NA
1.3
-2.7
0.5
0.7
850
651
2.72
83.6
2.57
=13.9
2,56
8S.3
2.fcr.»
90.5
2.77
S2.C
2.85
S2.6
2.84
93.3
NA
95.1
-0.4
0.8
NA
1.9
1.6
K9
6.5
1.7
852
853
C.781
v.162
O.C66
C.T59
C.C59
.".497
5.4
T..621
5.6
^.723
5.6
0.818
5.7
C.834
5.8
C.S6C
»J.93C
C.896
8.1
-3.7
13.1
0.1
7*3.;
C.C
654
2.C
0.1
860
857
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by®, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. "Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. NA * not available, a = anticipated
EOP - end of period. S/A=seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). For complete series titles (including composition of composite indexes) and sources, see4 'Titles and Sources of Series" in the back of BCD.
1
For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual figures are
those published by the source agencies; otherwise, they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series) are averages of the data as shown in part II.
^Ifferencos rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
•'indojc for the latest month excludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113, for which data are not yet available.
*Eaverted aeries. Sine© this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed*
5
Ead-of-pe;tlod series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
8
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
[jlhart
Al ] GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July) (Aug.)
P
1
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
200. &NP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bii. dol.)
205. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q
(ami, rate, bil. dol.)
210. Illicit price Viator, Q (index: 195N00)
215. Par capita GHP i current dollars, Q (ann. rate, tnous. dol.)
1952 53
54
5$
56
57
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
SEPTEMBER 1973
KCII
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A2 I NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
1952 !>3
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current d<r:a for mass series are shown on page 69.
0
SEPTEMBER 1973
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A3
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
(Wro.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rale, Billion doHars
232. Durable goods, total, current dollars, 8
233. Durable goods, total excluding automobiles,
current dollars, fl
234. Automobiles, current dollars, Q
238. Nondurable goods, total, current dollars, Q
237. Services, total, current dollars, 0
§i §4 m si ^
Current (lota for these series are shown on page 70.
BCII
SEPTEMBER
1973
11
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(JuW
»
i
1
\
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
.
.,
.
:i
. ., S**^
Gross private toestic investment-
j;
/
j!
||
.
EJ
;i
i
160
- ^S
..
220
200
180 H
140
^-vrr*™^
120
„ ^
r,-4~I
r
'•
- -
240. Total, Q
•'
1
"
j^s'^'
^f
'
•
T
"
» • » - « •—-' ' . «' • »• '•-••• *•••-• ^
£
241. Presidential fixed investment, total, Q
241 Honresidential stmctires, Q
245. ClKwge in business inventories, Q
53
54
59
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
71
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
12
100.
160
SEPTEMBER
1973
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A5
FOREIGN TRADE
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr,)
P T
(Nov,) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Fek)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (currest)
250. Net exports of goods and services, Q
+5-
0-5-10-
110-1
100-
90-
80 70-
60-
252, Exports of goods and services, 0
5040-
30-
100-
90-
so50-
253. Imports of goods and services, Q
40-
30-
•J
§3
S4
SB
i@
57
61
©2
7©
29 -
71
Current data for these serfes are shown on page 7?.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ SEPTEMBER
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ItCII
1973
13
Section A
Chart A6
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
Government purchases of goods and services260. Federal/State, and local governments, Q
262. Federal Government, Q
264. National defense, Q
266. State and local governments
Currant data for these series are shown on page 71.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
14
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
SEPTEMBER 1973
KCII
Section A
Chart A?l FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
270. Final sales, durable goods, 0
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods, 0
H
274. Final sales, nondurable goods, Q
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods, Q
Q
si
^ i§ s©
m
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
SEPTEMBER 1973
RCII
15
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A8
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
p
(Apr.)
I
I
(tow.)
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Annual rate, billion dollars (ettrm
288. Compensation of employees, Q
282. Proprietors' income, Q
284. Rental income of persons, Q
288. Corporate profits aid inventory valuation admtnil, 8
288. Net interest, Q
S3
54
SS
ii
57
SS
5S
60
65
S@
if
iS
69
7@
71
Cut-rent data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.
16
SEPTEMBER
1973
KCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A9
SAVING
(Nov.) (Nov.)
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
290. Gross saving (private and governmenO
292. Personal saving, 0
294. Undistributed corporate profits
plus inventory valuation adjustment, Q
296. Capital consumption allowances, Q
298. Government surplus or deficit, Q
S3
54
55
5S
SJ
SS
§§
6! ea
64
SS
?s 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ SEPTEMBER
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCII
1973
17
Section A
Chart A10
REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(Apr.)
T
(W ffslb.)
IP 1
Annual rate, billion dollars 1958
J)
, 1
246. Change in business inventories, 1958 dollars, Q
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, 1958 dollars, Q
247. Fixed investment, nonresideitial, 1958 dollars, Q
248. Fixed investment, residential structures, 1958 dollars, Q
261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, 1958 dollars, Q
249. Gross auto product, 1958 dollars, Q
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 70, and 72.
18
SEPTEMBER
1973
ItCII
Section A
Chart All j
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Gross National Product Shares
230A. Personal consumption expenditures as percent of GNP, Q
241A. Fixed investment, nonresidential,
as percent of GNP, Q
Percent
266A. State and local government
purchases of goods and services
as percent of (
a
m
Jf
National Income Shares
280A. Compensation of employees as percent of national income, 0
282A. Proprietors' income as
percent of national income, Q
_
\
284A. Rental income of persons as percent of national income, Q
Bi §4
m
286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation
adjustment as percent of national income, Q
m
gy
288A. Net interest as percent of national income,
i§
Cur cent data for these series are shown on page 73.
t
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
P SEPTEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B£] EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
(Juty)
P
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
Marginal Employment Adjustments
42 T
"I. Avenge workweek, production workers.
40"
3=
, St^te mimiipluyiii^it iiisuiaine (tlKnjsaii^--inveiN
initial
150 T
200-=
2SO-
1 Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees-inverted scale)
1952 13
S4
Si
§6
5?
S8
9S
60
81
6i
S3
§4
§5
66
Q
71
72
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
20
SEPTEMBER 1973
IICII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
[Chart Bl
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
50. Number of job vacancies, mfg. (thousands)
46. Help-wanted advertising (iuifex: 1967=100)
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (ann. rate, bil. man-hours)
*41, Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions)
42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural
activities (millions)
1052 S3
54
§5
§6
57
58
59
60
61
62
6$
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 75.
ItCII
SEPTEMBER 1973
21
Section B
Chart
Bl
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
I EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
») (Apr.)
IP
T
Comprehensive Unemployment
*43. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale)
D
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale)
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(prceirt-fnvertetf scale)
Lagging Indicators
Long-Duration Unemployment
*44. Unemployment rate, persms unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)
D
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
22
SEPTEMBER 1973
Section B
I
Chart B2
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
j PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Jsa
fe)
»sy) fe.)
(Eiy) (fe.)
P
T
Comprehensive Production
*200. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
*20S. GNP in 1958 dollars,
Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
*47. Industrial production (index: 1967=100)
Comprehensive Income
*52. Personal income (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
53. Wages and salaries in mining,
manufacturing, construction
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)
©?
d©
if)
W
71
Note: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/SEPTEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCII
23
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B2
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
T
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
F
T
(May) (Fib.)
P T
160 T
180-
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
149 H
130120 =
M
11
100-
"56. Manufacturing and trade sales (till. dol.
59, Sales of retail stores, 1967 dollars (bil. dol.)
141952
S3
i4
SS
S6
57
iS
64
65
66
©7
SS
69
7®
71
7%
73 1974
NOTK: For this economic process (I.e., Production; Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging Indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
24
SEPTEMBER 1973
IICII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
Mew business incorporations (thousands)
8 Construetiwi contracts, total value (iBdex: 196HOO;
MCD moving avg.-5-term)1
and orders, plant and epipeitt (bit. dol.)
1992
13
S4
(§4
iS
66
67
m 69
71
72
73 1974
7
This i* a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ SEPTEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
IICII
25
Section B
(SWJSM,
Chart
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
B3
reiMHW
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators—Con.
El
New Investment Commitments-Con,
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (tail, dol.)1
24. Manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries,
nofldefense (bil. dol.)
,<j j
9. Contraction contracts, commercial and industrial (mil, so. ft,
*29. New biilding permits, private housing units (index: 1967-100)
'This l> a copyrighted sartat used by permission; tt may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 77 and 76.
26
SEPTEMBER 1973
Section B
[ Chart
B3
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
] FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT^Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(May) (fe&.)
Is
T
(« (Kov.)
F
T
Backlog of Investment Commitments
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (bil. dot.)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bil. dot.)1
Lagging Indicators
I Investment Expenditures
*61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
Machinery and equipment sales and business construction
expenditures (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
'
ItOI
SEPTEMBER 1973
27
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
[_Chart BjJ INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(My) (Apr.)
m (Aug.)
P
1
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
I
(May) (felt,)
P T
T
inventory Investment and Purchasing
+20-1
245. Change in business inventories, Q
(m. rale, bil. dol.)
+10-
T
IT, Ufiaflge in HOOK value, manffacwtng m trade inventories
^f^>Wwy :
..; <
*
iir w ' / il
r?; >f v ? y
37. NrcftasetfialSials, percent of companies reporting higher inventeries
CJiange in twok value, manufacturers' inventories o? materials and supplies
(m. rate, bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.--6-teri)
26. Buying policy, production materials, percent of companies
i eomnitateiits 60 days or longer
1952 5,1 54
Si
Si
57
58
§0
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
63
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Currant (lota for Uhe*» series dre shown on pages 78 and 79.
28
SEPTEMBER 1973
!!€!»
«^
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B4
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT^Con.
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Inventory Investment and Purchasing-Con
100-,
75-
50-
25J
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
Lagging Indicators
220 =
200*
180 H
160 =
*71. Book! value, manufacturing and trade inventories (bit. dol.)
140 =
120 =
100-
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (bit dot.)
31952 53
54
§6
57
58
59
60
81
62
§3
64
Si
66
6?
?©
71
71
73 1974
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
SEPTEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCD
29
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B5 I PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
19. Stock prids, $80 CMMM stocks (index: 1941-43=10)
Profits and Profit Margins
*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (am rate, bil. ttol.)
18. Corporate profits after taxes, 1958
dollars, 0 (am rate, HI. doL
22. Ibtto, profits (after taxes) to utana originating
in corporate business, Q (percent)
Prrtts (alter tarn) per dollar of sales, iMijfactyriDfi, 0
tab)
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index: 1967-100)
Current data for these series are shown on pages 79 and 80.
30
SEPTEMBER 1973
KCII
Section B
Chart B5
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
! PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
34. Net cash flow, corporate
Q (arm rate, bil. dol.)
35. Net cash ilow, corporate, 1958 dollars.
Q (anil rate,fail,dol.)
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities (index: 1967^00}
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (index: 1967=100)
afg'g g>i
§4
&$
i©
wit
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
i SEPTEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
31
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B5 J PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.
Lagging Indicators
(July) (Apr)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Unit labor cost, total private! economy
63. Index, Q (1967=100)
63c. Change over 1-parter spans, Q (an. rate, percait)
68. Labor cost (ctrr. do!.) per unit of real corporate product, Q (dollars)
Ci2. Labor cost per unit of output manufacturing
(index: 1967=100)
-
53
§4
SS ii
B7 S8
60
61
61
§3
64
ii
86
67
S8
69
7§
71
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
32
SEPTEMBER
1973
Section B
Chart B6
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Flows of Money and Credit
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial hanks
(aim. rate, percent; moving avg.~fi-term)
103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at banks and
institutions (M3) (ann. rate, percent; moving avg.--6-to)
85. Change in money supply (M1) (ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term) j {
,
33. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
112. Change in business loans (ann. rate, bit. doi.;
1952 i3
§4
55
S6
5?
58
5®
60
61
§2
<63
64
©5
§6
67
68
69
7@
71
7Z
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Kl.JP SEPTEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
33
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
fchart B6 J
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators—Con.
<JuW (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Fat)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
Flows of Money and Credit-Con.
+28 <
+20-
*113. Ctange in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
«t
&,
+10-
110. Total private borrowing, Q (aim. rate, bil. dol.)
Credit Difficulties
14. Liabilities of business failures (mil. dol.-inverted scale; MCD moving avg.-~6-terw)
til! V
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total installment loans (percMt»iiy*M scale)
13
i4
§§
id
g^
Bi
§D
d©
n
Curront diito for these series are shown on page 81.
34
SEPTEMBER
1973
ItCII
L
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (teg.)
(July) (Apr.)
P I
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
93, Free reserves (bil. dol.-inverted scale)
115. Treasury bond yields (percent)
117. Municipal tad yields (percent)
ii
id i?
li
li i©
Currtsnt data for these series are shown on page 82.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
IMLI)
Federal Reserve
Bank ofSEPTEMBER
St. Louis 1973
35
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart HeT] MONEY AND CREDIT~~€on.
Lagging Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
160-
Outstanding Debt
X B
140-
120- <
100-
66. Consumer installment debt (bit. do!
80-
•J 60 J
UO-i
100-
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks (bil.
8060-
—J
40 J
8-
Interest Rates
*67; B;mk rates m short-term Dusmess loans,
Q (percent)
118. Mortgage yields, residential (percent)
4J
31952 §3
B4
SS
S6
S7
58
59
60
61
62
03
64
SB
§6
67
§8
iS
70
71
1974
Current dota for these series are shown on page 82,
36
SEPTEMBER
1973
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B7
COMPOSITE INDEXES
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Five coincident indicators, estimated
aggregate economic activity-
830. Six lagging indicators
/
(series M, SI, 62,67,71,72) S
49
50
§1
52
53
54
§5
56
57
58
59
6q
SI
73
1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+} In months from reference turning dates.
i Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident Indicators.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/SEPTEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
!!€!»
37
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B7
COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P
(Km.) (Nw.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
| 111. Twelve tetters, prior to trend adjustment
!
(series 1, 5, G, 1ef ii, is, u, 19,23,23, 31, 113)
813. Marginal ercpioywat adistntents
(series 1,7,3,5)
814. Capital ttvtst»efll
(series 6, 10, 12, 29)
lib. teventi^ »vestment and purchasing (series 23,25,31,37)
811 Setsitto filial Itows (sides 33, 85,111113)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 83,
38
SEPTEMBER
1973
IICII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST
Leading Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Mow.) (WOT.)
P
T
*1. Average workweek, production workers
manufacturing (tours)
*6. New orders, durable goods iixbiries (HI. Art.)
*10. Contracts and orders, plant
and equipment (Ml. Hoi.)
New buildingl'emiirs, private housing^uflitsTindex:
1974
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74, 77, and 78.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/SEPTEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCII
39
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
p
(July) {Apr,}
p T
(July) (Aug.)
p
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
r
(Nov.) (Now.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
p T
+ 35
+30
11. Change in toe* value, iMf^ttriig and trade iRventories
(m. rate, 111, Ml.; MCO iptni avg.-6-term)
+25
+20+15+10-
+5-
0-5200-1
180160140-
*23, Iwitstrial materials prices (index: 19(7=100)
120-
^V^
100-
^^
!!
.
•
::
j
Si
|
i
'
lifU-
.
^
•
,
,j
.
, .. ,
.
'Tl StoclE prices, 500 CMM slocks (Mex: 1941-43=10)
,
120-
/^V
100-
^^/^^^f
JVS
H
80-
y^
en-
*16. toporate profits affBr Uxes, Q
*17. Ratia, prict to »it latar
(MR UIMM)
d«ht (an. rate, bil. *»l.)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 51974
Cut-rent dirt a tor thete series are shown on pages 76, 79, 80, and 81.
40
SEPTEMBER 1973
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
*52. Personal income (ann. rate, bil. dol.]
200. GHP in current dollars. 0
(ant. rate, iil. M.}
47. Iratestrial production (index: 1967^100)
; ,
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales (bil. dot.)
*54. S^les of retail stores (bil. dol.)
41. Employees on nonagricuitural
payrolls (millions}
1948
49
50
5i
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
i60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on pages 75 and 76.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ SEPTEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
41
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
[Thart IB?] NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(NOB.) (Qe!,)
P
1
P
t
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
*44. Useaployroeat rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks anil over (percent-inverted scale)
*61. BusiRess expenditures, m plant and eppent, Q (m rate, bil. del.)
*71. Book vahe, 'mmhctarUg ami trade inventories (bil. doJ.)
*62. Labor m\ per unit rt 'Mpil, •MriMrtv (Wn: 1967=100)
*72. Cofflmercial and industrial IMK outstatiding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks (bil. dot.)
49
Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 78, 79, 80, and 8Z.
42
SEPTEMBER
1973
KCIt
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
(JuW (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
110100-
9080-
la) Actual expenouures iann. rate, DM. ooi.r
70-
80-
'50-
40-
30-
110-1
percen
(b) Second stitldpdtious as
105-
o
O: n f\
\ nQ
s*.
0
Jl
91 Io 9 9
Q
100-
85-1
110-,
(c) First anticipations as percent of actual (percent)
105 -
k
Oo
100-
95-1
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series ore shown on page 84.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ SEPTEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ItCII
43
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Section C
Chart
ClT] AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
410. MaNfactvers' sales, total value. Q (Ml. del.)
140-
120-
412. Manufacturers' investoriej, total book value,
Q(bil. dol.)
I
414. Coflditiofl of manufacturers' inventories:
percent considered high less percent
/
H*—oonsidcrcd low, Q (percent)
—-r^
<;
2010-
416. Ade^iacy af ffl^ifactiifers' capacity: percent ceisifcred
less pefcent cmsidefed excessive,
Q (perceflt-inverted scale)
30-
48 =
1957
if
i9
8©
61 • 62
§3
§4
65
66
67
6i
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
44
SEPTEMBER 1973
ltd*
Section C
Chart
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
Cl
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
420, Current income of households compared to income a year ago, Q
Actual
Anticipated * • •
60 •
(a) Percent of households reporting no change in family income (percent)
50-
(b) Percent of households reporting higher family income (percent)
30 =
(c) Percent of households reporting lower family income (percent)
425. Mean probability of substantial changes in income of households, Q
:*'•••••.
(a) | Mean probability of increase in family income (percent) .../V
•*'*•. /
/
'•
-
; \
(b) Increase less decrease (percent)
(c) Mean probability of decrease in family income (percent) ^....^
=
pur clii&ed fay hoibfchoid^H ~ "~ "=-^- - • <
(ann. rate, mil. ca[s) _ _ _ _ „ ^^,,
-—
/
#,v
I *.. .*.•
—-_^— »_.,-^-
V.
v^»»«,t.
=
(b) Actual, 2-quarter moving avg.
< i f»
cfiiaTiBBil^ceiit) t
<
—— •
jpi -
T T
- -,
<j>
::.*-; 4|'l-
- —-
---*-
= — <
435. hideror consumer
9 ttst. 1 1966=100)
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.
IBCI) SEPTEMBER 1973
45
Section C
Qchart_cT] DIFFUSION INDEXES
(Now.) (Kov.)
f
T
Diffisiw indexes: percent rising
(pltfled at terminal quarter)
061 Business expenditures lor new plant and equipment, all industries (Ml span)
(8) Actual expend ilures
.»,
DM0. New orders, iawrtactaring (4-Q sp))1
0442. Net profit;;, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
0444. Het sales, manufacttirfn? and tr^e (4-8 span)1
WClftnier Cmpliveei, maiiScturing anf trade
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
'This Is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced wltlwut permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
46
SEPTEMBER
1973
Section C
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Actual
Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal Barter)
D4SO. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-8 span)1
Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (4-Q spa)1
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)1
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
'This is a copyrighted series used by ppermission; it may not be reproduced without permission from
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal ReserveKU)
Bank of St.
Louis
SEPTEMBER
1973
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
47
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
art
(JuSy)
P
FOREIGN TRADE
(frjg,)
T
P
P
T
.) (Now.)
T
500. Merchandise trade balance (bil. dol; MCD moving avg.-6-term)^ , |,
502. Exports, except military aid (bil. doL; MCD moving avg.--6~term)
506. Export orders, durables except motor vehicles
(bil. tioJ«; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
Expert orders, wwelectrical macknery
(iilex; 1957-59 MOO; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
512. General imports (hil. dol.;
MCI) loving avg.-4-terni)
Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
48
SEPTEMBER 1973
BCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
250. Balance on pods and services"
515. Balance on goods, services, aM remittances
517. Balance on current
519. Balance on current account
and long-term capital
^ =4.0 J
522. Official reserve transactions balance
HSii 13
14
11
id
1^
+ 1.0-
73 1074
Current data for these series are shown on page 87.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
SEPTEMBER
1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St.
Louis
49
Section D
KEY
|^Chart DST] BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
P
(Apr.)
T
T
(Nov.)
T
(Key) (Fit)
P T
Major Components, Except Military Grants
of Goods and Services
100
Billion dollirs
14
530. Liquid liabilities to all foreigners, outstanding at end of period
foreign official agencies, outstanding at
534. U.S. official reserve assets-reserve position at etd trf period
S3
1)4
SB
SS
S7
ii
ii
S@
il
62 . S3
§4
Current data for Ihota series are shown on page 87. End of year figures are used prior l;o 1960.
50
SEPTEMBER
1973
Section D
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(Kay.) (Nov.)
P
T
Goods and Services Movements,
Except Transfers Under Military Grants
Annual rate, billion dollars
3 Excess of receipts
1 Excess of payments
Goods and services-
250. Balance on goods and services
Merchandise, adjusted
536. Export
Investment income, military sales and
expenditures, and otfier;seryi
1912 5S
>- y
_ ^
12-
541. Imports__ .
n n n n
Current data for these series are shown on page 87. Annual totals are used prior to I960.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/SEPTEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
51
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
I
(May) (Fab.)
P T
20 n
Annual rate, billion Mars
Investment Income, Military Sales
and Expenditures, and Other Services
E23 Excess of receipts (inflow)
HI Excess of payments (outflow)
12-
Invested income-542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.
Travel*-
J3
545^ Payments Jby U.S. travelers abroad
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.
Military sales and expenditures-
_. jft MiJitfy sate tojqreigner§
i3
Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
52
SEPTEMBER
1973
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND JYIAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(Juiy)
P
(tag.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Capital Movements Plus Governmen
Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Excess of receipts (inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
Securities investments—
+8«£
f
&
/:
0-
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
+4n
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net
-4.
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net
0«
i
1952
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
6^
62
0
Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior |o 1960.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ SEPTEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
731974
Section D
[Chart D3J FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
600. Federal surplas or deficit, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, til. dol.)
601. Federal receipts, national incowe aid product accounts, Q (m. rate, btt. ttol.)
0
602. Federal axpeiditures, natioflal income w& product accounts, Q (ami. rate, bil,s dol.)
19S2
S3
i<>
iB
Current data for these tenet are
54
SEPTEMBER
1973
ItCII
Section D
D
Chart D3
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
'.) (Wov.)
(toy) (feb.)
P T
264. National defense purchases, Q (ann. rate, bil, dol
616. Defense Department obligations, total
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
621. Defense Department obligations, procurement
(bil. dol.;:| MCD moving avg.-6-term)
647. New orders, defense products industries
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
648. New enters, defense
products (bil. dot.; MCD
moving avg.-6-term)
625. Military contract awards in U.S.
W. M; MCD moving avg.-6-ferm)
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
BUI SEPTEMBER 1973
55
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS
<Ju» (Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
211. Fixed weighted price index, gross private product
(variable weights prior to 1965), Q (index: 1958=100)
211c. Change in fixed weighted price index, gross private product,
761c. Cfcaage m emma price index, all ileus (seasaially adj.)
|{
Six-month spans (ami. rate)
1 J
, iJivMJi
riUnis^WV
1952 53
54
55
5i
57
58
59
@©
61
82
63
§4
65
66
67
63
69
70
71
72
73 1974
k>ne-month porcerrt changes have been multiplied by a constant (12} so that they may be shown against the background of the armuallzed changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
56
SEPTEMBER
1973
BCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.
751. Processed foods and feeds
55c. Change in wholesale price index, industrial commodities (seasonally adj.)
1932 53
54
55
Si
57
58
59
60
6ll 62
63
64
69
66
67
SS
69
7©
71
71 1§74
percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 91.
BCII
SEPTEMBER 1973
57
Section D
f Chart
D5 1 WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
IP
T
Average toflrly earnings of production workers,
private Wfffarra economy (annual data prior td 1964)-740. Carrett dollar earnings
741. Real earnings (index: 1967:100)
859. Real spendable avg. weekly earnings, wtagri. pdi ctra
or notsif ervisory workers (1967 dollars)
Average burly competsation, all employees,
private Mfrfari economy-
745. Current dollar compensation, Q
1967=100)
746. Real compensation,
Q (index: 1967=100)
Current data for these ;torle* are shown on pages 93 and 93.
58
SEPTEMBER 1973
BCII
Section 0
Chart
D5
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.
(Jyly) «pr.)
(May) (Feb.)
P I
P T
Change in avg. hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm ebnomy, adj.1-j
Six-nionth spans (ann.vrate),
740c. Current dollar earnings !\>\
.VVH'
1 V
* VT
t<
=
i
!
$
^=
i S
'*< '( '<
One-month spans'
741ei Real earnings
Change in avg. hourly compensatim, air employees,
private nonfarm economy, Q-- i
Six-month spans (ann. rate)
745c. Current dollar compensation
i One-quarter span (ann. rate)
; Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-
748. First year avg. changes, Q (ann. rate)
Productivity
749. Average changes over life
contract, Q (ann. rate)
l\ 770c. Change in output per man-hour, total private economy, 0
One-quarter span (ann. rate)
-A-
f,
Vdjusted for overttmB (In manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 20ne-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against
the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans. See basic duta table for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
P SEPTEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
59
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D6
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
«(Feb.)
(Nov.) (Nov.)
i
84fi. Bolt) sexus, 16-19 years of age
19S2 !»3
114
55
56
S7
§0
Si
60
61
S2
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
71
73 1914
Current dotu for these series are shown on page 94.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
60
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
SEPTEMBER 1973
ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Chart El
(July)
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
(May) (Feb.)
F T
F T
(Nov.) (Mow.)
P
I
Gross National Product in 1958 dollars,
~l 440 =
1952 53
54
SS
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
6?
68
69
7©
71
71
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 95.
'Trend line of 3.5 percent p.er year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1*69 and 4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to 2nd quarter 1973. See special note on page 95.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ SEPTEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCII
61
Section E
Chart E2
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
T
P , T
Ratio, output to capacity, miinufacturing, Q (percent)
m
851. Ratio, iiviatortos to sates, manufacturing and trade (ratio)
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods industries (ratio)
853. Ratio, protection of business equipment to consumer goods
854. Ratio, parson*! savmg to (Ksp&sable persenal income, Q (ratio)
Ratio, Irelp-waflted advertising to number
of perm
857. Vacancy rate in total
rental bousing, Q (percent)
ia m m Bd ^
Current dota for thoto series are shown on page 96.
62
SEPTEMBER
1973
ItCII
Section E
Chart
E3
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
f.) (Kov.)
P
T
T
D1. Average workweek, production worjters, manuf?cturing--21 industries (9-rno. span—, l~mo. span—)
.
D6. New orders, durable goods industries-SB industries (9-mo. span —•, 1-mo. span—-
^^
E
D11. Newly approved capital appropriations--!? industries (3-Q span~-~, 1-Q
034. Profits, FNCB ot NY, percent reporting higher profits-about 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-Q span)
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks--?] industries (9-mo. span —, 1-mo. span—-)
023. Industrial materials prices-^13 industrial materials (9-mo. span —, 1-mo. span-
I4F*H^
iw
»P«y
»
t- v
>
\\f §
x/
05. Initial claims, State unemployment insurance-4? areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span —, 1-mo. span—--)
«^«^^
id
d©
di ^© n
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 97 and 98.
BCII
SEPTEMBER 1973
63
Section E
[jChai
Chart E3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nw.) (Nov.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
Ml. Employees« Mnagrlaillural pajrtills-M industries (6-mo. span —. 1-mo. span—)
D47. Industrial production-24 industries (6-irio. span—f 1-mo. span—
DS8. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods-22 industries (6-mo. span — , 1-mo. span—-)
D54. Sales of retail stores-23 types if store;; (9-nto. spaa — T 1-mo. span—.)
S3
S4
§5
SS
87
58
59
@0
SI
it
64
Si
66
67
6S
Si
7© 71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 98.
64
SEPTEMBER 1973
BCII
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E5
RATES OF CHANGE
(July) (Apr.)
T
(Nov.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
T
205. (c) GNP in constant dollars
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators (series 41,43,47,52
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
^™™^^
1
f
TT
47. Index of industrial production
1957
58
§9
6©
61
62
63
64
74
ii75
To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult 'Alphabetical Index—Series Fining Guide,' pp. 119, 120, and 121.
t
P SEPTEMBER 1973
65
Chart Fl
CONSUMER PRICES
ffc) (Nov.)
P
T
Consumer prices
Current data for thosa series are shown on page 103.
66
SEPTEMBER
1973
IN:
Section F
Chart F2
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(Jyiy) (%r.)
P
T
(Rtey) (Feb.)
P T
(Nw.) (Wow.)
F'
T
Industrial production-
Current data for these series are shown on pages 103 and 104.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
SEPTEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
67
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
[Thart F3
STOCK PRICES
(July) (Apr.)
F T
(July)
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nw.) (Nov.)
P
T
Stock prices-
Hia B3
54
55
B6
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
67
6S
69
70
71
7i
73 1§74
Currant data for these series are shown on page 104.
68
SEPTEMBER 1973
ltd!
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
200. Current dollars
a. Total
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
205. Constant (1958) dollars
a. Total
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
b. Difference
{Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
{Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
210. Implicit price deflator
a. Total
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
b. Difference
(Index:
1958=100)
(Index:
1958=100)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
1970
958.5
970.6
987.4
991.8
+9.6
+12 a
+16.8
+4-4
+4.1
+5.1
+7.1
+1.8
721.2
722.1
727.2
719.3
-3.9
+0.9
+5.1
-7.9
-2.1
+0.5
+2.9
-4.3
132.9
134.4
135.8
137.9
+2.0
+1.5
+1.4
+2.1
+6.4
+4.6
H.I
+6.4
1,027.2
1,046.9
1,063.5
1,084.2
+35.4
+19.7
+16.6
+20.7
+15.0
+7.9
+6.5
+8.0
735.1
740.4
746.9
759.0
+15.8
+5.3
+6.5
+12.1
+9.1
+2.9
+3.6
+6.6
139.7
141.4
142.4
142.8
+1.8
+1.7
+1.0
+0.4
+5.5
+4.9
+2.8
+1.3
1,112.5
1,142.4
1,166.5
1,199,2
+28.3
+29.9
+24.1
+32.7
+10.9
+11.2
+9.0
+17.6
+11.1
+15.6
+4.9
+11.7
768.0
785.6
796.7
812.3
+9.5
+5.8
+8.1
144.9
145.4
146.4
147.6
+2.1
+0.5
+1.0
+1.2
+5.7
+1,6
+2.8
+3.3
1,242.5
1,272.0
+43.3
+29.5
+15.2
+9.9
829.3
834-3
+17.0
+5.0
+8.7
+2.4
149.8
152.5
+2.2
+2.7
+6.1
+7.3
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
+8.7
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT-Con.
Year
and
quarter
215. Per capita
GIMP, current
dollars
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
217. Per capita
GNP, constant
{1958) dollars
222. Personal
income in current dollars
Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
{Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
{1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dol.)
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
4,697
4,744
4,812
4,819
3,534
3,529
3,544
3,495
788.8
797.4
809.3
£06.3
785.8
807.7
816.8
822.9
668.2
689.0
702.4
707.2
524.2
535.8
541.6
537.4
3,274
3,367
3,423
3,436
2,569
2,619
2,640
2,611
4,979
5,063
5,130
5,216
3,563
3,580
3,603
3,651
835.9
§53.6
382.7
840.0
859.5
870.2
884.4
727.4
744.0
752.0
760.4
547.8
554.6
556.4
560.9
3,526
3,598
3,628
3,658
2,655
2,682
2,684
2,698
5,342
5,476
5,580
5,724
3,688
3,765
3,811
3,877
911.0
928.3
949.2
978.6
910.8
926.1
943.7
976.1
772.8
785.4
800.9
828.7
565.7
571.6
579-3
595.1
3,711
3,765
3,831
3,955
2,716
2,740
2,771
2,841
5,920
6,051
3,951
3,969
1,(1)15.0
996.6
1,019.0
851.5
869.7
603.9
604.8
4,057
4 > 137
2,878
2,877
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter*
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9,10, and 65.
IICII
SEPTEMBER 1973
69
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Year
and
quarter
232. Durable
goods, total in
current dollars
231. Total in
constant (1958}
dollars
230. Total in
current dollars
234. Automobiles
in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
233. Durable
goods, total except
autos, in current
dollars
237. Services in
current dollars
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
1370
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
604.6
614-0
623.7
628.3
474.3
477.5
480.9
477.5
90.9
92.8
93.4
88.1
62.1
62.7
63.9
64.5
28.8
30.1
29.5
23.6
257.1
261.2
265.7
271.1
256.6
259.9
264.6
269-1
650.0
662.2
673.0
683.4
489.5
493.6
498.0
504-1
100.3
101.9
105.4
106.7
66.0
67.3
68.6
70.6
34.3
34.6
36.8
36.1
273-5
278.0
279.8
283.5
276.1
282.3
287.8
293.2
700.2
719.2
734-1
752.6
512.5
523.4
531-0
540.5
111.5
115.1
120.2
122.9
74.9
77.0
78.4
81.7
36.6
38.1
41.8
41.2
288.8
297.9
302.3
310.7
300.0
306.2
311.6
319.0
779.4
795.6
552.7
553.3
132.2
132.8
87.1
88.2
45.1
44.6
322.2
330.3
325.0
332.6
1371
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter •
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
240. Total
241. Nonresidential
fixed investment
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
242. Nonresidential
structures
243. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.}
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
244. Residential
structures
245. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
98.5
35.6
36.1
36.4
36.5
64.3
64.9
66.5
62.0
31.1
29.5
30.4
33.8
+2.1
+4.9
+6.0
+5.1
145.5
152.7
153.8
160.8
101.4
103.6
104.7
108.0
37.0
37,6
38.4
38.5
64.4
66.0
66.3
69.5
37.1
41.5
44.8
47.5
+7.0
+7.6
+4.3
+5.3
167.5
174.7
181.5
189.4
114-0
116.3
118.3
124.3
41.0
41.5
41.3
43.0
73.1
74.9
77.0
81.2
51.8
52.8
54.5
56.9
+1.7
+5.5
+8.7
+8.2
194.5
198.2
130.9
•134-1
45.3
47.2
85.5
86.9
59.0
59.6
+4-6
133.1
135.4
139-2
137.4
100.0
101.0
102.8
1971
First quarter ,.
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter,.
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12.
70
SEPTEMBER 1973
KCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
0
H9 FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
264. National
defense
262. Federal
260. Total
253. Imports
of goods and
services
252. Exports
of goods and
services
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1970
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
+3.6
+3.9
+4.2
+2.8
61.5
63.1
63.9
63.2
57.9
59.2
59.7
60.4
217.2
217.3
220.3
223.3
99.5
95.8
94.7
94-8
78.5
74.0
73.2
72.6
117.8
121.5
125.6
128.5
+3.8
+0.5
+1.1
-2.2
65.9
67.1
69.1
63.0
62.1
66.6
68.0
65.2
227.9
231-5
235.5
242.2
96.1
96.7
98.2
101.2
72.3
71.3
70.3
72.4
131.8
134.8
137.3
141.0
-5.5
-5.7
-3-8
-3-5
70.3
69.9
74.0
79-7
75.8
75.6
77.7
83.2
250.3
254.2
254.7
260.7
106.0
106.7
102.3
102.7
76.5
76.6
71.9
72.4
144.3
147.5
152.4
158.0
89.7
97.2
89.7
94-4
268.6
275.3
105-5
107.3
74.3
74.2
163.0
168.0
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
0.0
+2.8
E
QJ FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Durable goods
Year
and
quarter
270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
280. Compensation
of employees
Nondurable goods
271. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
274. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
282. Proprietors'
income
284. Rental income
of persons
275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1970
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter ...
Fourth quarter
.
184.1
184.9
186.2
175.0
+0.4
+0.2
+5.2
-1.1
277.8
281.9
285.9
290.9
+1.7
+4-6
+0.8
+6.2
594.1
600.7
610.1
610.6
67.8
67.4
66.2
66.2
23.2
23.8
24.2
24-4
187.4
188.1
192.8
196.2
+4.1
+4.2
+0.7
-0.9
294.7
297.8
302.4
304-9
+2.9
+3.4
+3-7
+6.2
627.6
638.8
648.8
661.2
67.9
68.3
68.6
70.2
24.4
24.7
24.7
24.4
205.5
211.4
216.8
222.8
+0.4
+3.2
+5.8
+10.4
309.7
319.6
323.1
332.5
+1.3
+2.3
+2.9
-2.2
684.3
699.6
713-1
731-2
72.5
73-2
74.1
77.1
24.1
22.6
24.9
24.9
238.1
242.4
+4-4
+7.3
346.9
357.3
+0.3
-2.8
757.4
774.9
80.6
81.5
24.7
24.6
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter .......
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shjown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
'"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13,14,15, and 16.
ItCII
SEPTEMBER 1973
71
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
288. Net interest
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
290. Gross saving
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
294. Undistributed
corporate profits
plus inventory valuation adjustment
292. Personal
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
298. Government
surplus or deficit
296. Capital consumption
allowances
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
69.8
69.9
71.3
65.9
33-8
35.6
37.5
39.2
141.5
144.0
147.0
139.8
46.2
57.2
60.8
60.6
9.8
10.1
10.8
75.8
80.5
80.9
83.4
40.2
41-4
42.7
43-5
148.4
153.6
154-4
158.7
86.2
88.0
91.5
98.8
43.9
44.8
45.7
46.6
8.4
84.7
86.3
88.1
90.0
-12.6
-19.2
59-2
63.5
60.2
57.8
13.5
17.0
17.7
22.1
91.6
92.8
94.6
96.5
-15-9
-19.7
-18.4
-18.6
164.8
166.1
172.3
182.2
52.9
45.9
45.8
54.4
19.9
20.8
22.5
26.6
98.3
103.7
102.3
105.1
-5.4
-3.9
+2.0
-3.8
190.4
T194.6
50.0
51.0
24.6
106.9
109.1
+8.9
r+11.6
40.8
-9.6
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
104.3
r!07.9
47.9
49.4
REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
273. Final sales,
constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
246. Change in
business inventories,
constant
(1958) dollars
247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.doL)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
248. Fixed investment, residential
structures, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
249. Gross auto
product, constant
(1958) dollars
261. Government
purchases of poods
and services, total,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rats,
bil. dot.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
719.3
717.7
722.3
714.8
+1.9
+4.4
+4.9
+4.5
78.5
78.3
78.6
73.5
22.2
20.8
21.8
24.1
29-3
33.0
31.6
20.0
142.3
139.1
138.0
137.8
729.3
733.8
742.9
754.3
+5.8
+6.5
+4.0
+4.7
74.8
75.5
75.6
78.4
25.9
28.3
29.9
31.7
37.2
34-8
37.7
35.9
136.7
136.7
138.6
766.9
781.3
790.0
806.0
+1.1
+4.3
+6.6
+6.3
81.5
82.5
83.4
87.5
34.0
34.2
34.7
35.3
36.1
37.7
41.0
41.4
142.7
144.0
1U.8
143.5
826.0
831.0
+3.3
+3.4
91.2
91.5
35.6
35.3
46.4
45.5
144.4
145.2
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
iu.e
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16,17, and 18.
72
SEPTEMBER 1973
ltd!
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SHARESOF GNPAND NATIONAL INCOME
Year
and
quarter
Percent of Gross National Product
230A. Personal
consumption
expenditures
244A, Fixed
investment, residential structures
241 A. Fixed
investment,
nonresidential
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
245A. Change
in business
inventories
250A. Net exports of goods
and services
(Percent)
(Percent)
262A. Federal
Govt. purchases of
goods and services
266A. State and local
Govt. purchases of
goods and services
(Percent)
(Percent)
1970
10.4.
10.4
63.1
63.3
63.2
63.3
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
10.4
9.9
r3.2
r3.0
3.1
3.4
+0.2
+0.5
+0.6
+0.5
+0.4
+0.4
+0.4
+0.3
3.6
4.0
4.2
4-4
+0.7
+0.7
+0.4
+0.5
9.6
12.3
12.5
12.7
13.0
+0.4
0.0
+0.1
-0.2
9.4
9.2
9.2
9.3
12.8
12.9
12.9
13.0
10.4
9.9
•9.6
1971
63.3
63.3
63.3
63.0
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
9.8
10.0
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
62.9
63.0
•62.9
62.8
10.2
10.2
10.1
10.4
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.7
+0.2
+0.5
+0.7
+0.7
-0.5
-0.5
-0.3
-0.3
9.5
9.3
8.8
8.6
13.0
12.9
13.1
13.2
•62.7
62.5
10.5
10.5
4.7
4.7
+O.4
+0.4
0.0
+0.2
8.5
8.4
13.1
13.2
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
SHARES OF GNPAND NATIONAL INCOME-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Percent of National Income
280A. Compensation
of employees
284A. Rental income
of persons
282A. Proprietors'
income
288A. Net interest
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
286A. Corporate profits and
inventory valuation
adjustment
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
75-3
75.3
75-4
75-7
8.6
8.5
8.2
8.2
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
8.8
8.8
8.8
8.2
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.9
75.1
74.8
75.0
74.9
8.1
8.0
7.9
8.0
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
9.1
9.4
9.3
9.4
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.9
75.1
75.4
75.1
74.7
8.0
7.9
7.8
7.9
2.6
2.4
2.6
2.5
9.5
9.5
9.6
10.1
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
74.6
74.6
7.9
2.4
2.4
no. 4
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
10.3
4.7
4.8
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available,
Graphs of these series are shown on page 19.
BCII
SEPTEMBER
1973
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
JJj EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
LEADING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Job Vacancies
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
*1. Average
workweek of
production workers,
manufacturing
Year
and
month
(Hours)
21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production
workers, manufacturing
*5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs1
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
{Per 100
employees)
(Hours)
(Thous.)
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
50, Number of
job vacancies,
manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
(Thous.)
^6. Index of
hel planted
advertising in
newspapers
(1967-100)
1971
January
February
March . . ,
39.9
39.8
39.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
3.7
3.7
3.9
293
286
296
1.7
1.6
1.5
88
86
84
78
78
79
April
May
June . . „ .
39.7
2.9
2.9
2 9
3 Q
3 9
284
290
?Q3
1.6
1.5
1 *>
87
87
3 7
79
80
84
July
.
August . . „ . , . . . „ . . .
September . ,
4,0 0
3<3 8
3 0
? Q
2 8
3 A
276
i e
8?
y o
/ n
3PQ
"I
Q
A7
3n3
1 A
&7
85
85
82
October .
November
December
39.9
40.0
3.7
4.1
/ n
291
283
272
1.5
1.4
92
92
83
ft/
4,0.3
3.0
3.0
3,1
1.4
Q/
fte
4,0.1
4.0.5
40.4.
2.9
3 2
3.3
4.4
/ /
266
262
261
1.3
12
12
98
£Q
106
ftQ
Q3
40.7
40.5
40.6
3 5
3 /
3 4
/ 6
260
261
1 1
10
A 0
2Q1
1 L
; /
/ c
/ /
260
248
Q/ O
4,0.0
QQ Q
3Q 6
Ql
1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
.
.
o
July
August
September
October
November
December
40 6
3 /
40.6
3 5
40 8
3 6
40.7
3.6
4,0,8
40 7
3 7
3 8
A. A
/
/
4 6
/ <>
/ *3
40
111
116
117
126
qe
12
10
1PQ
~,i f\i
T n
1 3ft
1 H'?
T flQ
1U;?
py-i
py 7
n Q
O Q
in
iy A
1 ^A
l?o
161
109
117
246
QA
?o
O7
1 AQ
109
1973
January
February
March
April
May
June
July ....
August . .
September
40 3
IPft/a n
10 Q
/O Q
ir\ 7
4,0 6
r40.C
p40.6
3
7
Iu\
1 J-~\
£1> 4"
•3
Q
,?• 7
•2 ft
J.O
3.8
p3.6
228
O
Q
"i r^fi
1??
4 .8
rt
opo
230
T I7'\
-L
f5
-i 7|»
1 1Q
4-9
n Q
0 9
4-9
3 q
3 -VQ
1
rrj\
[H)
Q
4*7
c -i
5.1
• jr4»5
p4.8
(NA)
oqrt
<Jo
232
O"jrt
238
E)221
248
O a
O• d
o
rci\
d>
|Hp vtH
rO»8
i.o
?MA)
i 'yft
i
r^Q
1^9
fQN^»"i
fto
In/rl92
P191
(NA)
121
121
r!22
r!23
(uS
HI
IHy 1
-^^l
oT ort
October ,
November
December .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by[H>; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by (H>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources ;are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 20,21, and 39.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rieo which is included in figures published by source agency.
74
SEPTEMBER 1973
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
1H EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLQYMENT-Con.
....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT tNDICATORS-Con.
48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
{Ann. rate, brl.
man-hours)
*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
Comprehensive Employment
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
forde survey1
(Thous.}
*43. Unemployment rate, total1
(Percent)
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs2
(Percent)
40. Unemployment rate,
married males1
(Percent)
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over 1
(Percent)
1971
January
February .
March
137.28
136.47
137.20
70,329
70,276
70,321
75,268
75, 147
75,047
6.0
5.9
6.0
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.3
3.2
3.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
April
May
June
137.34
137.71
137.88
70,457
70,601
70,570
75,203
75,504
75,360
5.9
6.0
5.8
3.9
4-3
4-3
3.1
3.2
3.1
1.3
1.4
1.4
July
August
September
137.12
137.50
137.67
70,533
70,529
70,897
75,724
75,868
76,108
5.9
6.1
5.9
4.0
4.1
4.6
3.1
3.2
3.2
1.5
1.5
1.5
October
November
December
138.22
138.95
139.36
70,861
71,078
71,264
76,325
76,540
76,631
5.9
6.0
6.0
A- 4
4.1
3.8
3.0
3.3
3.2
1.5
1.5
1.5
January
February
March
139-76
140.40
140.87
71,545
71,747
72,033
77,182
77,225
77,756
5.9
5.8
5.9
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.0
2.9
2.8
1.4
1.5
1.4
April
May
June
141.70
142.05
142.66
72,224
72,534
72,705
77,896
78,120
78,421
5.8
5.8
5.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
2.9
2.8
2.9
1.3
1.3
1.3
July
August
September
142.26
142.67
143.73
72,694
73 ,016
73,268
78,339
78,451
78,677
5.6
5.6
5.5
3.6
3.3
3.4
2.7
2.6
2.8
1.3
1.3
1.3
October
November
December
144-27
144.60
144.52
73,584
73,835
74,002
78,739
78,969
79,130
5.5
5.2
5.1
3.3
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
145.15
146.28
146.38
74,252
74,715
74,914
79,054
79,703
80,409
5.0
5.1
5.0
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.5
1.1
1.0
1.0
146.98
147. 50
r!47.92
75,105
75,321
r75,526
80,606
80,749
ED 81, 271
5.0
5.0
4.8
2.6
2.7
2.7
2.4
2.3
2.3
0.9
0.9
0.9
rlA7..75
(H)pUS.l6
r75,515
E>P75,S07
81,098
80,991
(H>4.7
4.8
[H>p2.6
2.1
H)2.1
E>0.8
0.9
1972
1973
January
February
March
April
May
June
..
July
August
September
r2.6
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by E); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 6, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [fi). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart 88). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 21,22,41, and 42.
Beginning with January 1972, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for
computing this series. Prior to January 1972, the 19^0 Census is used as the benchmark. 2Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
BUI
SEPTEMBER 1973
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
. .
M
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Comprehensive Production
Year
and
month
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
Comprehensive Income
*2QO. Gross national product
in current dollars
*205. Gross national product
in 1958 dollars
*47. Index of
industrial production
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(1967=100)
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*56. Manufac53. Wages and
salaries in min- turing and trade
ing, manufactur- sales
ing and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
57. Final sales
(series 200
minus series
245)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Sales of retail stores
*54. Current
dollar sales
(Mil.dol.)
59. Deflated
(19B7 dollar)
sales
(Mil.dol.)
1971
January
February
March
,
1,02?! 2
735 !l
105-5
106.0
106.0
836.1
839-4
844.5
198.5
198.6
199.3
107,132
108,649
109,949
1,020.2
27,908
32,290
32,850
33,274
as, 392
28,635
April
May
June
1,046.9
7/JQ.i
106.5
107.4
107.4
849.0
854.4
875.1
200.5
202.3
202.6
110,632
111,732
112,938
1,039.2
33,578
33,502
33,827
28,798
28,585
28,740
July ... .
August
September ....... .
1,063!$
746!9
106.7
105.6
107.1
865.0
871.4
874.2
203.1
203.2
204-0
112,234
113,816
113,855
1,059.2
33,688
34,655
35,219
28,573
29,344
29,821
October
November .
December
1,084!;?
759 !o
106.8
107.4
108.1
877.2
883.3
892.8
205.0
206.1
209.6
113,781
116,007
116,095
1,078.9
34,964
35,574
34,396
29,555
30,020
29,349
January
February . . , . „
March
1,112! 5
768 ! 6
108.7
110.0
111.6
901.5
912*8
918-0
211.2
214.5
216.8
118,299
117,998
120,239
i,n6!s
34,886
35,345
36,450
29,291
29,553
30,426
April
May
June . .
l,H2.'4
785! 6
113.2
113.8
114.4
923.6
927.7
927.0
218.8
219.8
220.9
121,352
122,693
122,347
1,136!9
36,296
37,141
36,822
30,272
30,874
30,558
July
August
September
1,166*. 5
796!?
115.1
116.3
117.6
935.2
944.4
951.3
220.6
223.6
226.3
122,783
126,792
127,656
1,157*.8
37,342
37,969
37,746
30,861
31,302
30,939
October . .
November
December
1,199!2
812 .*3
119.2
120.2
121.1
967-0
977.6
983.6
229.0
231.1
232.7
130,336
131,918
133,483
1,191.0
39,106
38,713
39,417
31,975
31,551
32,099
1,242!5
829 .3
122.2
123.4
123.7
989.1
997.4
1,003.3
235.1
238,2
239.5
136,863
138,910
141,010
1,237.8
40,707
41,242
41,979
3S,881
•33,073
[H>33,264
H> l,27a!6
D 834!3
124.1
'124.8
r!25.6
1,011.6
1,018.7
1,026.6
241.8
244.1
247.6
141,274
142,694
r!42,323
i> 1,26?!$
41,185
41,735
r4l,179
32>327
32,529
r31,897
H)r42,712
P42,707
r33,008
p32,183
1972
1973
January . .
February .
March . „
April
May
June
July
August
September „
[R}rl26.5
P126.2
rl, 035.1
|H>pl,045.7
r249.2 [H>pl46,658
(NA)
E)P250.8
October
November
December ,
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 23,24, and 41.
76
SEPTEMBER 1973
IICII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^H FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business
Enterprises
*12. Index of net
business
formation
(1967=100)
New Investment Commitments
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
(Number)
*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1
(1967=100)
(Bil.dol.)
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations1
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
capital goods
industries,
nondefense
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and
industrial
buildings1
(Bil.dol.)
(Mil. sq.ft. floor
space)
1971
January
February
March
106.8
106.1
109.2
22,563
21,034
23,237
28.72
29.17
29.22
April
May . .
June
109.4
110 4
112 3
22,970
o/ n^o
29.06
28.86
28 84
July
August
September
11 5 7
TI o c
-\ -] o A
1 1 / r?
October
November
December
-i -j c d
r>l
on /
124
126
1/.2
161
1 3ft
1/7
J-4/
-I f-T
Ol
79A
OQ
OC
"I f.C
•an ft'?
n CQ
9Q dA
i5
*;n
1
1
oq ,1£>\J
/ cr\
<.j
QC 1 CO
^5
9Lo^
OC
A?
on /Q
A77
01
"I Q
9C
-| -) A r\
*l2 )Vf f
or QOI
Oj7<iJ-
QT
January
February
March
115.3
115.1
117.5
24,871
25,055
26,862
32.16
April
May
June
118.7
119.2
118.4
26,681
26,243
26,303
July
August
September
118.6
118.2
119.4
October
November
December
-LSI
8.33
8.62
8.59
c, 7fj
7.00
7.06
7.06
^/ 37
en o/
A^ J /
8.75
8.69
8.86
5*52
7.13
7.18
7.31
AO y f~i
Dj) »4U
5 on
7 10
7 32
7 34
60.67
54*^2
70.72
5-90
7 62
7 82
8 02
61.75
68.70
66.69
8
1Q
-i-^JJ
Q no
ft ft3
-i 017
(V
9 .U4
-LJf
155
-i /p.
9 .^o
00
9
/0
cy do
P4»B<:
/ /-)
rt-5
o2.83
/•. n / r.
S /
/ (-.
1972
160
155
159
9.27
9.29
9.77
33.80
33.99
167
165
!*>/.
10.16
10.38
10.44
26 , 815
26,420
26 798
33.21
35.77
37.29
1*5S
10.59
10.27
11.66
121 0
27 Z17
pA
37.13
37 46
171
120 8
i ?o 7
°7 An i
qa 0,2
-i AQ
1DJ
0£7
Op r\i
09
ic
35.40
180
187
-| n"7
6 51
7.00
7 09
11 75
n
e/
~n A3
8
oA
7.90
CQ A*?
8.15
8.30
66 72
AA Aft
8.70
A^c ^o
tj-r qe
8.93
8.98
8.95
8.90
9.73
7fi ^1
A7 7/
7C A^
7y AQ
7y An
9.62
Q 70
Q <5Q
78.82
10.28
10.10
10.57
85.94
86 40
fty 30
10.62
83.86
76.21
84.52
rto
A^7
1973
119.7
120.5
[H>122.6
27,173
28,640
(H> 29,914
39*22
39.76
4L.02
181
191
193
11.87
11.87
12.06
April
May
June
120.3
119.7
118.9
28,693
28,422
r27,859
41.34
42.45
ins /'•* o?
177
173
183
11.90
12.58
13.64
July
August
September
118.7
27,832
(M)
r42.70
p4?.02
177
H>206
[H)13.75
p!3.33
January
February
March
(NA)
9.64
[R>P10.72
10.92
E> 11.42
rll 40
plO 83
fij\
In/ QQ
"?•70
'u
%po
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by <§). Current high values are indicated by IB); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity {series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 25,26, and 39.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. ¥. Dodge Division (series 8 and 9), or The Conference Board (series 11).
ItCII SEPTEMBER 1973
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
B
^9 FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
-INVESTMENT
LEADING JNQICATORS-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
LEADING INDICATORS
New Investment
Commitments-Con.
Backlog of Investment
Commitments
Investment Expenditures
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
28. New private *29. Index of
new private
housing units
housing units
started, total
authorized by
local building
permits
{Ann. rate,
(1967-100)
thous.)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(Bit.dol.)
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing1
(Bil.dol.)
*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business construction expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
245. Change
in business
inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*31. Change in
book value of
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total
37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Percent
reporting)
1971
46
49
51
103 .62
104,20
105.55
+7.0
103.72
105.47
106.32
+7*.6
80 !75
104.19
104-48
108.12
+4.3
83*.18
108,29
109.81
114.13
+5.3
86 !79
115.70
114.42
116.72
+i!?
87.12
r20.*38
119.35
121.35
121.44
+5.5
75.73
76.82
78.86
87 '.67
r21.32
120.74
123. 48
122.42
199.8
191-8
fi> 206.7
79.68
80.28
81.99
•. .
r23.24
9l'.94
125.66
128.20
128.08
+s!a
+13.2
+16.1
+14.8
H>67
65
64
2,497
2,456
2,260
192.4
190.4
183-5
83.43
85.07
88.03
• ••
96.19
...
135.46
134.45
134-43
+4.*6
+25.7
+22.5
+16.2
62
63
59
April
May
June
2,123
2,413
r2,128
167.1
158.4
174.9
90.72
93.88
97.65
D 97*76
LU.42
142.63
r!4fe.20
+4-5
+15.1
+25.3
H>r+28.3
56
56
July
August
September
2,176
p2,045
r!53-4
PH7.0
r99.56
DP102.50
January „
February „
March
1,793
1,750
1,910
144-0
139-2
154-2
72.67
72.64
72.16
April
May
June
2,018
2,057
2,005
153.0
172.9
166.8
71.76
70.66
69.07
July
August
September . ,
2,100
2,182
2,037
181.3
175.6
174.9
68.82
69.22
69.22
October
November
December
2,058
2,219
2,396
177.5
182.2
186.9
69.54
69.94
70.15
2,439
P2,540
2,313
195.2
186.8
185-5
70.75
71.03
71.30
2,204
2,318
2,315
184.9
176.2
189.7
72.10
72.85
75.33
July
August
September
2,2U
2,424
2,426
189.2
196.6
203.9
October
November
December
2,446
2,395
2,369
, .
.
79.32
r20.20
8l!6l
r!9iZi
...
r!9.*28
• ••
r!8.*93
+10.4
+10.3
+9.3
+11.8
+10,4
+4.1
•.*
+7.5
+7.7
+13.9
57
55
58
59
51
41
+12.4
39
42
49
+5.4
+6.0
+3.4
49
52
51
+5.1
+2.1
1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
r!9.*42
+9.6
+13.9
+4.5
[ED+i.*7
+5.8
+16.9
+16.7
52
52
47
44
56
59
1973
January
February
March
October . . .
November
December
25.12
•.*
H>p28/68
ral01*.88
•w^B
p+18.0
(NA)
61
62
63
a!04-36
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated byE); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart 88). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of lhes« series are shown on pages 26,27,28,39,40, and 42.
1
This is a copyrighted series uged by permission; it itay not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board.
78
SEPTEMBER 1973
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
HI INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Con.
6
BJ PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
TIMING CLASS ....
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
....
Inventory Investment and Purchasing-Con.
Inventories
20. Change in 26. Prod, materials, combook value,
mfrs/ invenpanies reporttories of mtls. ing commitments 60 days
and supplies
or longer©
{Ann. rate,
(Percent
bil.dol.)
reporting)
Year
and
month
32. Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliveries®
{Percent
reporting)
25l Change in
unfilled
orders, durable goods
industries
(Bil.dol.)
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
(Bil.dol.)
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices
Stock Prices
65. Mfrs.'
inventories of
finished
goods, book
value
*23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices©
*19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks©
(Bil.dol.)
(1967=100)
(1941-43-10)
Profits and Profit Margins
Corporate profits after
taxes
*16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
18. Constant
(1958) dollars
{Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1971
-0.1
+0.6
-1.2
52
59
56
38
44
46
+0.07
-0.02
-0.48
175.74
176.60
177.38
34.26
34.37
34-57
105-9
107.2
107.8
93.49
97.11
99.60
+5.2
+3.2
+2.0
57
55
58
52
53
50
-0.39
-1.11
-1.58
178.36
179-23
179-57
34-41
34-45
34.42
110.2
108.6
106.1
July
August
September
+2.2
-1.4
-3.3
57
55
52
48
49
48
-0.25
+0.40
+0.00
180.19
180.84
182.00
34.18
34.27
34.56
October
November
December
+0.2
-0.2
+1.3
51
50
45
50
48
51
+0.31
+0.40
+0.21
182.42
182.59
183.62
January
February
March
-1.2
+1.3
-2.9
53
55
56
52
52
58
+0.60
+0.28
+0.26
April
May
June
+0.3
+0,7
-1.1
51
56
56
58
60
60
July
August
September
+5.0
+4.2
+0.2
54
57
56
October
November
December
+-2.2
+1.7
+2.0
January
February
March
April
May
June
January
February
March
April
May
June
.
...
43.8
32.7
103-04
101.64
99.72
47.'l
34^8
104-7
106.1
107.5
99-00
97.24
99.40
49^6
35^8
34-90
34-87
34.81
107.4
106.9
106.8
97.29
92.78
99.17
50.6
37.0
184.07
184.57
184.86
34-82
34.88
35-04
110.7
113.0
117.2
103.30
105.24
107.69
52.2
37*. 8
+0.80
+0.75
+2.48
185.66
186.82
187.19
35.15
35-28
35.55
119.5
124.3
123.8
108.81
107.65
108.01
53.4
38*. 3
63
63
65
+0.40
+1.08
+2.04
187.68
189.09
190.49
35.59
36.07
35.98
123.7
124-6
124.8
107.21
111.01
109.39
55*.6
39.7
64
63
62
73
70
77
+0.82
+0.59
+1.71
191-58
192.92
194.15
35.71
35.70
35.80
128.1
131.6
134-8
109.56
115.05
117.50
60*.3
42^8
+4,1
+6.0
+4.2
63
68
67
78
84
88
+1.44
+1.64
+2.96
196.30
198.17
199-52
35.72
35.80
36.06
139.3
147.5
155.3
ED118. 42
114-16
112.42
66\9
47.0
+4.2
77
80
78
90
E>92
89
+2.69
+3.16
[H) +3. 76
200.79
202.90
r205.25
35-95
36.32
36.70
158.2
162.9
170.1
110.27
107.22
104.75
[H)82
80
88
88
r+1.91 [H>P206.75
(HA)
p+2.94
B>36.72
(NO
178.1
(H>191.0
^S?.!
1972
1973
July
August
September
+5.3
+6.9
H>+7.6
(M)
(H>r7i.*6
E>r49.2
105.83
0 103. 80
2
103. 83
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to cbntain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®- Current high values are indicated by 03); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5U 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by[R). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28,29,30,40, and 42.
Average for September 4, 11, and 18.
IN:
SEPTEMBER 1973
2
Average fok- September 5, 12, and 19.
79
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
EH PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process ...... , . . .
Year
and
month
Profits and Profit Margins-Con.
22. Ratio,
profits to
income
orip. in
corporate
business
15. Prof its
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all
mfg. corp.
(Percent)
(Cents)
Cash Flow
*17. Ratio,
price to unit Net cash flow, corporate
labor cost
index, mfg. 34. Current 35. Constant
(1958) dol.
dollars
(1967=100)
(Ann. rate,
bit.dol.l
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Unit Labor Costs
55. Index of 58. Index of
wholesale
wholesale
prices, mfd.
prices,
goods®
industrial
commod.@
Unit labor cost, total
private economy
63, Index
(1967=100}
(1967^100)
(1967-100)
63c. Change
over I-Q
spans
(Ann. rate,
percent)
68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per
unit of gross
prod. (1958
dol.), corp.
*§2, Index
of labor
cost per
unit of output, mfg.
(Dollars)
(1967-100)
1971
-0.6
4.0
96.4
96.6
96.8
77!3
57.'o
112.2
112.5
112.8
111.8,
112.4
112.7
12l! 6
a. s
4^2
97.1
97.4
97.6
siis
59^6
...
113.3
113.7
113-9
113-0
113-5
113.8
122.4
July ..
August
September
9.3
i\2
97.3
97.1
98.2
84.*7
61 .*2
114.5
115.1
115.0-
114.5
114.9
114.7
1230
October . . .
November , .
December „
9>!i
4-1
97.9
97.8
97.4
87!?
63.'?
115.0
1U. 9
115.3
114-5
114-5
115.1
123^6
January
February . .
March
9.1
4.2
97.5
97.1
97.9
89.9
64.3
115.9
116.5
116.8
115.7
116.5
116.7
125.9
April
May
June
9.3
4-2
97.9
98.4
98.5
93! 6
66.*4
117.3
117.6
117.9
116.9
117.4
117.8
125.* 7
July
August
September
9.5
4.3
99.3
99-8
100.4
95 li
67i3
118.1
118.5
118. 7
118.J
118.5
118.8
126! 3
October
...
November . .
December
9.B
4*-4
100.6
101.1
102.2
101.9
71.7
118.8
119.1
119.4
118.8
119.2
120.7
126.9
10*.5
4.7
102.2
102.9
105.1
109!;^
76.'l
120.0
121.3
122.7
121.6
123.6
125.7
128 .*5
D4.*8
104.4
105.6
r!06.3
H>PlH^7
124.4
125.8
126.9
126.7
128.7
130.9
[B> 130. 9
126.9
D127.4
129.8
(ED134.0
* ••
January
February ......
March
8^5
April
May
June
• *•
.
0.820
116.1
116.2
116.4
0.824
116. a
116.5
116.5
0.828
117.5
118.7
116.9
0.828
117.1
117.3
118.3
0.842
118.9
120.1
119.0
0.845
119-4
119.4
119.6
0.850
119.0
118.9
118.2
0.853
118.2
118.2
118.3
0.862
119.2
119.7
119.6
H>0.874
121.0
121.6
r!22.4
4.5
2.9
1.3
1972
7.6
-0.5
1.7
2.0
1973
January . . .
February
March
April
May
June
.... ,
July
August
September .
» ii!i
r!05.4
E>P108.4
5.2
B>- 7 - 6
1-122.8
E»pl23.B
October . .
November , . .
December .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by [H>; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by EX Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBEH "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30, 31,32,40, and 42.
80
SEPTEMBER 1973
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
I
l
l MONEY AND CREDIT
^^M
LEADING INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Credit Difficulties
Flows of Money and Credit
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply {Ml}
(Ann. rate,
percent)
102. Change in 103. Change in
money sup. plus
money supply
time dep. at
plus time deposits at comm. banks and nonbank inst. (M3)
banks (M2)
{Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
33. Net change 112. Change
in business
in mortgage
debt held by fin. loans
inst. and life
insurance1
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*113.Net
change in consumer installment debt
{Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
110. Total
private
borrowing
{Ann. rate,
mil.dol.)
14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures®
(Mil.dol.)
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, total
installment
loans
(Percent)
1971
January
February
March
+2.71
+14.07
+9.63
+12.14
SJH-20.12
+18.41
+14.22
E>+20.16
+18.91
+23.92
+23.38
+29-89
-3.97
+5.69
+1.70
+2.72
+6.24
+7.56
107,896
168.80
150.90
224.65
April . .
May
June
+9.55
+13-68
+9.89
+12.45
+13.39
+10.07
+15.22
+U-83
+11.70
+30.90
+34.64
+39-96
-8.26
+6.64
-0.18
+9.73
+6.80
+6.95
116,156
153.80
249-49
165.84
July
August
September
+8.26
+2.56
+1.53
+8.41
+4-96
+4.68
+10.90
+8.06
+7.64
+44-58
+44.27
+40-45
-7.20
+16.03
+20.42
+8.30
+10.81
+13-22
H3,260
147.03
155.56
115.85
October
November
December
+4-09
-0.51
+2.04
+9.32
+7.70
+8.93
+11.00
+9.56
+10.31
+36.79
+40.10
+45.40
-5.54
-0.95
-4-58
+10.50
+14.30
+10.68
117,480
144-70
129.00
111.32
+1.02
H> +14.73
+11.54
+10.38
+15-07
+12.40
+13.19
+16.80
+14.1$
+37-37
+35.63
+44-39
-8.48
+6.52
+4-70
+13.21
+10.60
+15.77
122,372
101.62
191-33
220.66
+7.95
+3.95
+6.40
+7.85
+8.29
+9.20
+10.6$
+10.09
+11.10
+44-68
.+50.83
+51.82
+10.31
+4.72
-6.83
+11.88
+15-98
+16.63
142,480
148.47
190.14
127.90
July
August
September
+12.73
+4.36
+7.24
+12.50
+9.28
+8.73
+13. 94.
+11.63
+11.22
r+51.50
+58.32
+49.38
+1.10
. +7.00
+12.02
+13.13
+19.72
+15-43
144,704
204.62
253.62
113.54
October
November
December
+7.20
+5.25
+13-30
+10.08
+7.90
+12.24
+12.02
+9.81
+12.39
+47.57
+54.29
+60.43
+18.56
+16.78
+13-94
+17.95
+20.62
+19.96
0)186,244
152.97
208.58
[H>86.79
-0.47
+6.11
-0.47
+6.40
+5.91
+4-75
+9.76
+8.98
+6.90
+42.89
+44-05
+53.86
+23-94
[H> +50-92
+41-58
+23.39
+23.96
D+24.53
176,532
205-84
137.16
252.35
April
May
June
+7.48
+10.69
+12.44
+8.11
+9.85
+10.43
, +8.45
+9-Q8
+10.42
+48.90
+55.80
r+59-75
+25.87
+14-54
+14.57
+16.85
+23.89
+19.34
p!74,580
119.34
167.95
180.21
2*.6i
July
August
September
r+5.06
pf6.57
+7.33
r+5.59
p+4.03
0>p+6l.52
+22.90
P^29.15
3
-0.72
+23.60
206.19
190.15
CNA)
3
i!si
1.72
i!si
l!?5
1.94
Dl!68
1972
January
February
March
April
May
June . .
l!?3
1.79
I.B7
1^92
2.03
l!92
1973
January
February
March
r+5.02
p-1.36
+0.23
s
(NA)
CNA)
2.02
2.05
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by <§). Current high values are indicated by®; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity {series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by[H>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "&', estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 33, 34, and 40.
^Data include conventional mortgages held by the Government National Mortgage Association.
Average for weeks ended September 5 and 12.
SEPTEMBER 1973
81
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Econornic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^H MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
Bank
Reserves
Minor Economic
Process
LAGGING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
93. Free
reserves ®
114, Treasury
bill rate®
11 6. Corporate
bond yields®
115. Treasury
bond yields®
117. Municipal
bond yields®
66. Consumer
installment
debt
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
Year
and
month
(Mil. dol.)
Interest Rates
Outstanding Debt
Interest Rates
*72. Commercial
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly reporting large
commercial
banks
(Mil. dol.)
*67. Bank
rates on shortterm business
loans, 35
cities ®
118. Mortgage
yields, residentil (n)
(Percent)
(Percent)
1971
January
February
March
.. .
-91
-127
-120
4.49
3.77
3.32
7.63
7.54
7.62
5.92
5.84
5.71
5.36
5.23
5.17
99,774
100,294
100,924
83,235
83,709
83,851
6.59
(NA)
(NA)
7.32
April
May
June
-8
18
-322
3.78
5.75
5 96
5.94
5.37
5.90
5.95
101,735
102,302
102,881
83,163
83,716
83,701
6.01
4 70
7.76
8 25
8.15
7.37
7.75
7.89
July
August
September
-658
-606
-295
5.40
5.08
4.67
8.24
8.14
7.90
•5.91
5.78
5.56
fi)6.06
5.82
5.37
103,573
104,474
105,576
83,101
84,437
86,139
6.51
7.97
7.92
7.84
October
November
December
-153
-144
+58
4.49
4.19
4.02
7.72
7.67
7.54
5.46
5.48
5.62
5.06
5-20
5.21
106,451
107,643
108,533
85,677
85,598
85,216
6.18
7.75
7.62
7.59
January
February
March
+153
+91
+134
3.40
3.18
3.72
7.36
7.57
7.53
5.62
5.67
5.66
5.12
5.28
5.31
109,634
110,517
111,831
84,509
85,052
85,444
5.5?
7.49
7.46
7.45
April
May
June
+27
-15
+110
3.72
3.65
3.87
7.77
7.61
7.63
5.74
5 64
5.59
5.43
5.30
5.34
112,821
114,153
115,539
86,303
86,696
86,127
5 59
7.50
7.53
7.54
July
August ....
September
-55
-183
4.06
4 01
/ 66
7.72
7.59
7 72
5.59
5 59
5 70
5.41
6.30
5 36
116,633
118 276
11 Q 562
86,218
86,801
87 803
6 &L
-362
7.54
7.66
7 56
4 72
7 66
5 69
5 18
77
7 Ik
c en
121 058
/
K AO
1pp 77£>
gQ qcn
•QO 77 £
QQ
6 n£
7 6n
*; A3
c O6
6
1 ?/ / 3Q
QT
7 67
7 67
7 6A
c. q-i
7 61
6 62
c ?Q
126 388
128 385
130>429
93 . Q06
7 67
7 76
6 96
6 14
6 20
5 0*;
z, %&
i rn AT ^
7.55
7 66
7.63
7 70
7 69
7.73
6.11
6 pe
5.15
6 i/
5.18
131,833
133>824
135,436
103,769
104,981
106,195
7.97
16)8.45
3
8. 22
6.53
[8)6.85
*6.48
L *\L
1972
October
November
December
-3?7
-2P2
A^n
QT n
"-L, ?XU
1973
Japuary
February ...
March ...„
ftoq
-o<^
1 -300
-1 > 563
-1,564
-1,638
-1,653
April
May
•June
July
August
„
September . . „
October
B
November . . „
December
r-1,584
lH)p-1.75Z,
1
-1,460
6.05
6 29
6 36
7 TO
8.02
[H>a.67
2
8. 86
6.13
6.32
6
5.40
5.48
5- 18
Q0
I/ft
[H>7.35
H> 137, 403
108,103
(NA) [H>pllO,532
6
110,472
7.73
7.79
7.89
[H)8.19
(NA)
„
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by[M>; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by®. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart 88). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 35,36, and 42.
^Average for weeks ended September 5, 12, and 19. ^Average for weeks ended September 6, 13, and 20. 3Average for weeks ended
September 7, 14? and 21. Average for weeks ended September 7 and 14- BAverage for weeks ended September 6 and 13.
Average for weeks ended September 5 and 12.
82
SEPTEMBER 1973
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
H| COMPOSITE INDEXES
830. Six
laggers
J10. Twelve
eaders, reverse trend adusted1 (series
1,5,6,10,12,
16.17,19,23,
29,31,113)
811. Twelve
leaders, prior
to trend adjustment
(same components as
in series 8 10)
820. Five
coinciders,
estimated
aggregate
economic
activity
(series 41, 43,
47, 52, 56)
8^5. Five
coinciders, estimated aggregate economic
activity,
deflated
(series 41, 43,
47, 52D, 56D)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
JJ1967^100)
118.7
120.1
122.6
101.4
102.2
103.9
120.6
121.3
121,9
112.9
113.4
113.8
125-9
124-2
124.2
93.1
93.7
94.1
108.9
108.6
110.0
102.9
102.3
102.7
95.6
98.1
99.0
98.6
100.4
104.5
April
May
June
124.3
125.5
125.5
105-0
105.6
105.2
122.6
123.6
125.2
114.3
114.8
116.5
123.7
123.4
124.2
94-2
94.1
94.2
109.7
111.5
112.1
103.3
102.6
101.4
100.5
101.1
100.6
106.1
105.4
107.4
July
Auaust
September
127.0
127.9
128.5
106.1
106.4
106.6
124.0
124-1
125.2
113.7
113.7
115.9
124.5
125-9
125.9
93.7
93.2
92.6
113.0
114-2
112.8
102.0
102.6
101.3
100.7
100.5
101.7
109.1
110.0
108.6
October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
129-7
131.4
132.7
107.1
108.2
108.8
125.5
126.6
127.6
115.3
116.5
117.3
125-8
125.8
125.9
93.3
95.1
95.2
114-7
116.2
116.0
100.7
100.8
102.3
101.3
100.6
101.9
104.6
105.0
104.8
134-6
135.0
138.3
109.9
109-9
112.2
129.4
130.7
132.2
118.9
119.7
121.1
125.8
125.7
126.1
97.1
97.8
98.5
116.3
115.5
117.0
103.1
104*0
105.1
103.0
103.4
104.6
106.3
108.1
116.5
April
May
June
139.6
141.9
142.3
112.8
114.2
114-1
133.7
134.8
135..4
122. A
123.4
123.7
126.9
127.6
128.2
99.0
99.8
97.7
117.8
118.1
119.1
105,8
107.8
107.7
105.3
105.6
105.9
112.3
112.9
114.0
July
August
September
142.8
146.2
H8.2
114.1
116.3
117.5
135.9
138.2
139.7
124.2
126.2
127.3
128.8
129.7
131.3
99.1
100.8
101.0
11$. 4
119.3
121.5
105.7
109.1
110.2
106.2
107.6
108.5
in. 6
120.0
116.5
October
November
December
1973
January
February
March
149.8
152.3
154.5
118.3
119.8
121.2
142.2
144-3
145.7
129.8
131.7
132.3
133.3
135.6
137.4
102.0
101.6
100.8
122.0
121.5
122.5
110.4
111.2
112.7
109.4
111.6
113.9
118.9
123-6
124.2
156.8
159-8
rl62-3
122.5
124-4
125.9
147.7
149.6
151.0
133.9
135.1
135.5
102.6
139.7
103.0
142.7 '
rl45.3 E> 103.6
121.9
122.3
E> 123.3
114.5
116.3
118.1
115;1
115.7
rll7.8
126.1
127.9
E>133.2
April
May
June
r!60.8
rl63.8
r!65.4
rl24.2
rl26.1
rl26.8
152.0
153.3
rl54.6
135.7
ri36,l.
r!36.5
rl48.7
r 151.1
r-153.3
103.5
103-4
rl02.7
121.6
121.7
123-0
118.1
120.6
rl23.6
1-117.5
rl!8.4
118.4
123.0
127.7
r-125.4
July
166.4
|H>2168.4
127.1
H> ^L28.2
156.5
1^157.6
138.6
®3138.6
r!56.0
0>pl57.5
pl01.9
(NA)
1-121.7
p!20.7
rl22,5
(H>pl27.3
rll7.7
E>P120.6
p!27.9
(NA)
Year
and
month
61,62,67,
71,72)
(1967=100)
Leading Indicator Subgroups
813. Marginal
employment,
adjustments
(series 1,2,
3,5)
814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,
12,29)
815. Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 23,
25,31,37)
816. Profitability
(series 16,
17, 19)
81 7. Sensitive
financial flows
(series 33, 85,
112,113)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
1971
January
February
March
. .
August
September
October
November
December
....
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear td contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by (B>; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [fi). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 37 and 38.
1
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
Excludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113 for which data are not yet available.
Excludes series 56 for which data are not yet available.
3
3
BCD
SEPTEMBER 1973
83
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter
410. Manufacturers'sales,
total value
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann, rate,
bil.dol.)
b. Second
anticipations as
percent of actual
c. First
anticipations ias
percent of actual
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Bil.dol.)
412. Manufacturers' inventories,
total book value
(Bil.dol.)
414. Condition
416. Adequacy
of manufacturers' of mf rs.' capacity: percent
inventories: percent considered
considered inadequate less perhigh less percent
cent considered
considered low
excessive
(Percent)
(Percent)
435. Index of
consumer
sentiment ®
(First quarter
1966-100)
1970
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
100.7
101.6
23
23
21
20
38
36
33
33
78.1
75-4
77.1
75.4
163.0
167.3
168.6
172.4
101.8
102-0
102.1
102.4
19
20
18
16
26
21
20
19
78.2
81.6
82.4
82.2
100,4
102 „ 3
102 ,,3
99.9
178.1
183.5
189.2
199.5
103.0
104.3
106.2
107.7
12
10
11
10
24
26
31
35
87.5
89-3
94.0
90.8
100.5
102.4
207.4
.213-4
ra217.0
a2l6.7
110.2
113.0
ral!5.6
al!7.4
9
11
45
76.0
103.9
103.6
103.4
101.7
104.6
159.7
158.8
160.3
155.9
79.32
81.61
80.75
83.18
101.6
100.9
102.0
101.0
102.6
101.1
102,, 6
99 „!
86.79
87.12
87.67
91-94
100.9
10^.1
103.1
100.5
96.19
97.76
ral01.88
a!04.36
100.6
100.8
78.22
80.22
81.88
78.63
102.3
100.5
99.0
98.5
99-6
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter,.
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
ao.a
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reporting- <
a. No change
in income
(Percent)
b. Higher
income
(Percent)
c. Lower
income
(Percent)
425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households ©
a. Increase
in income
(Percent)
b. Increase
less decrease
c. Decrease
in income
(Percent)
(Percent)
430. Household purchases of new cars
a. Actual
(quarterly)
2-quarter moving average
b. Actual
(Ann. rate,
mil. cars)
(Ann. rate,
mil. cars)
c. Anticipated d. Anticipated
as percent of
(Ann. rate,
actual
mil. cars)
(Percent)
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
50.3
49.8
48.5
50.8
35.0
35.1
37.6
34.9
14.1
14.5
12.5
13.6
20.1
19-9
18.2
16.7
13.8
12.9
10.9
9.4
6.3
7.0
7.3
7.3
7.4
8.3
8.1
6.9
7.8
8.2
8.4
7.7
8.0
7.6
7.6
112
103
93
90
51-4
51.0
53.6
46.3
35.2
35-7
34.3
40.8
12.7
12.5
10.9
12.0
17.2
19.9
17.0
15.7
10.5
12.4
10.2
9.0
6.7
7.5
6.8
6.7
8.3
8.9
8.7
8.1
8.5
8.6
8.8
8.4
8.4
8.0
8.6
8.6
99
93
98
102
45.9
46.8
41.6
40.8
11.8
11.7
15.9
16.1
19.9
20.1
9.7
9.4
13.5
14.0
6.2
6.7
6.4
6.1
9.5
(NA)
8.8
(NA)
9.2
(NA)
105
(NA)
17.1
16.6
10.7
10.3
6.4
6.3
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter „ .
Second quarter
Third quarter,.
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series fire shown on pages 43,44, and 45.
84
SEPTEMBER 1973
ItCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade 1 ®
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade1 ©
D440. New orders,
manufacturing1 ®
D61. Business expenditures for new
plant and equipment, all industries
D446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade1 ©
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
{4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
66
64
60
55
76
71
74
74
61
56
55
56
70
66
70
66
70
66
64
62
74
73
78
76
54
54
51
50
58
56
56
54
41.7
58.3
63.9
50.0
68
70
70
74
76
78
85
81
63
64
66
70
71
74
80
78
70
72
74
76
78
80
86
84
48
52
53
55
55
58
58
56
77.8
63.9
88.9
75.0
75.0
U.4
47.2
50.0
82
84
86
84
82
86
88
88
74
76
79
80
76
82
84
83
82
82
85
86
83
88
90
88
56
58
62
60
58
60
61
60
77.8
77.8
72.2
86.1
63.9
61.1
72.2
90
88
90
88
87
78
79
82
85
84
80
86
89
63
62
60
63
62
60
a. Actual
expenditures
b. Second
anticipations
c. First
anticipations
(1-Qspan)
(1-Qspan)
77.8
47.2
58.3
19.4
69.4
61.1
25.0
44-4
38.9
55.6
66.7
50.0
50.0
61.1
44-4
75.0
33.3
58.3
47.2
72.2
44.4
50.0
55.6
83.3
83.3
61.1
(4-Q span)
1970
First quarter ,.
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
90
90
88
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Selling prices
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade1 ©
D460, Manufacturing
and trade 1 ®
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Actual
D462. Manufacturing
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1
®
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
D464. Wholesale trade1 ©
Actual
Anticipated
{4-Q span)
{4-Q span)
D466. Retail trade 1 ©
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
66
61
62
58
62
61
64
58
84
82
82
80
78
78
78
77
80
80
78
75
79
76
78
75
87
85
86
84
77
80
82
80
85
86
80
80
81
80
62
62
62
60
60
62
65
65
80
80
71
72
78
78
78
78
74
76
68
70
76
76
75
75
85
86
73
74
80
82
82
82
86
84
73
74
80
80
80
80
64
66
72
71
61
66
66
66
74
76
76
78
68
74
75
72
70
72
72
74
68
72
72
70
80
81
82
80
70
78
80
74
73
78
79
81
67
74
74
74
73
76
69
72
72
70
86
86
76
82
85
83
82
84
73
80
83
82
80
86
88
84
90
87
76
85
88
83
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to Contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"MA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc.
ltd! SEPTEMBER
1973
85
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Qj FOREIGN TRADE
600. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 5 12)
Year
and
month
{Mil.dol.)
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipment;;,
total
(Mil.dol.)
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles
and parts
508. Index of export orders,
nonelectrical machinery
(Mil.dol,)
(1957-59-100)
512. General imports, total
(Mil.dol.)
1971
January
February
March
+2
+130
+160
3,601
3,694
3,790
1,518
1,472
1,469
236
225
234
3,599
3,564
3,629
April
May
June
-143
-161
-365
3,631
3,746
3,672
1,394
1,242
1,503
2U
237
246
3,774
3,908
4,037
July
August . . . «,
September
-259
-24?
+308
3,573
3,666
4,487
1,298
1,450
1,578
239
256
244
3,832
3,913
4,179
October
November
December
-800
-260
-288
2,669
3 , 196
3,831
1,475
1,281
1,766
248
262
284
3,469
3,456
4,169
r-36l
-649
-64?
4,074
3 , 824
3,868
1,427
1,372
1,554
290
296
317
r4,436
4,473
4,515
-596
3,820
3,882
3,971
1,337
1,340
2,085
339
327
343
4,417
4,486
4,468
y*A
4,074
'4 lc»6
4 176
1,706
2,036
1,947
368
416
378
4,565
4,726
4,612
405
389
362
4,736
5,148
5,002
383
408
/!*>
5,28,1
5,541
5,432
1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
.....
604
-497
July .
August
,
September . . «
October
November
December . .
-/Ql
.
„
-*tto
j 91
/ 316
£r,e
/ IT*.
iii
1 833
1 702
1
ccd
? ?*iO
4,977
5,065
*; itfo
2,304
2,248
2,111
2, '258
r2,109
p2 264
(NA)
-o/5
1973
January
February
March
-304
-476
April
May
June
+196
-16
5,487
5,603
6.778
July
August . . . „
September
+106
-17
5,868
6 004
c-a
-158
p -3(17
435
447
r436
r>/0^
(NA)
5 293
e. 7^1
tf
5, i*3Q/
r?4
5 762
6 021
'October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relatfonships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
86
SEPTEMBER 1973
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter
250. Balance
on goods and
515. Balance
on goods, services,
and remittances
517. Balance
on current
account
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dot.)
519. Balance on
current account
and long-term
capital
(Mil.dol.)
521. Net
liquidity balance
(Mil.dol.)
522. Official
reserve transactions balance
530. Liquid
liabilities to all
foreigners 1 ©
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1970
555
591
666
336
138
189
222
-135
-1,210
-601
-356
-868
-1,291
-856
-802
-906
-2,801
-1,992
-1,886
-3,164
42,970
43,375
44,201
43,291
-560
589
-243
-129
-965
151
-728
-678
-1,538
-1,386
-2,994
-3,294
-1,881
-2,672
-5,698
-9, MS
-4,151
-5,630
-6,345
-11,882
-5,900
45,484
51,408
60,761
64,166
-1,374
-1,426
-939
-870
-1,765
-1,801
-1,312
-1,299
-2,343
-2,364
-1,893
-1,751
-3,775
-1,855
-2,652
-1,556
-3,188
-2,307
-4,531
-3,851
-3,476
-851
-4,524
-1,484
66,925
69,880
75,498
78,719
r!50
r-247
p+235
r-592
p-314
r-947
p-782
r-6,661
rp-1,60?
r-10,499
r85,511
p86,401
907
First quarter ...
Second quarter ,
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter
971
1,047
1971
954
131
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
280
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
P6l6
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
532. Liquid
and certain
nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies1 ©
(Mil. dol.)
534. U.S.
official
reserve
assets2 ©
{Mil.dol.)
535. Allocations to the
U.S. of
Special
Drawing
Rights
(Mil. dol.)
Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
Goods and services
252.
Exports
(Mil.dol.)
253.
Imports
(Mil.dol.)
Merchandise, adjusted3
536. Exports
(Mil.dol.)
537.
Imports
(Mil. dol.)
Income on investment, military
transactions, other serv., total
540. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
541.
Imports
(Mil. dol.)
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
19,404
20,451
22,262
24,396
17,350
16,328
15,527
14,487
217
217
217
216
15,376
15,768
15,975
15,803
14,469
14,797
14,928
15,099
10,239
10,564
10,704
10,457
9,727
9,831
9,961
10,269
5,137
5,204
5,271
5,346
4,742
4,966
4,967
4,830
28,960
34,584
45,915
51,209
14,342
13,504
12,131
12,167
180
JL79
179
179
16,487
16,781
17,282
15,739
15,533
16,650
17,002
16,299
10,872
10,791
11,522
9,583
10,743
11,708
11,907
11,108
5,615
5,990
5,760
6,156
4,790
4,942
5,095
5,191
53 ,.806
54,604
60,075
61,512
12,270
13,339
13,217
13,151
178
178
177
177
17,587
17,463
18,491
19,921
18,961
18,889
19,430
20,791
11,655
11,539
12,362
13,213
13,475
13,313
13,935
14,958
5,932
5,924
6,129
6,708
5,486
5,576
5,495
5,833
r71,326
P70,66l
12,931
12,9U
(NA)
r22,611
p24,272
r22,46l
p23,656
15,320
rpl6,747
16,280
rpl6,977
r7,291
p7,525
r6,181
p6,679
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to; contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources 3re shown at the-back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
.Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49, 50, and 51.
3
Amount outstanding at end of quarter.
^Reserve position at end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).
SEPTEMBER 1973
87
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR CQMPQNENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Income on Investments, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)
Income on investments
542. U.S. investments abroad
(Mil.dol.)
Transportation and other services
Military transactions
Travel
543. Foreign
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)
544. Receipts
from foreign travelers in the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)
545. Payments
by U.S. travelers
abroad
(Mil.dol.)
546. Sales under
military contracts
(Mil.dol.)
548. Receipts
from
547. Military
expenditures
abroad©
(Mil. dot.)
(Mil.dol.)
549. Payments
for
(Mil.dol.)
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quartir
2,936
2,779
2,863
2,850
1,344
1,322
1,28^
1,217
570
575
591
594
935
1,001
1,021
1,012
268
435
347
429
1,180
1,259
1,210
1,203
1,363
1,415
1,470
1,473
1,283
1,384
1,452
1,398
2,989
3,315
3,038
3,557
1,160
1,135
1,293
1,340
594
590
623
657
1,048
1,061
1,056
1,113
498
507
489
419
1,175
1,214
1,204
1,237
1,534
1,578
1,610
1,523
1,407
1,532
1,542
1,501
3,3H
3,270
3,476
3,866
1,423
1,479
1,526
1,634
652
672
680
702
1,166
1,214
1,181
1,295
328
288
262
287
1,222
1,242
1,108
1,151
1,638
1,694
1,711
1,853
1,675
1,641
1,680
1,753
r4,158
p4,266
rl,849
P2,195
r82G
p787
rl,289
pl,382
343
p457
rl,l68
pi,184
rl,970
p2,015
rl,875
pi,918
1971'
First quarter ,.
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter,.
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ,.
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital Movsments plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Year
and
quarter
Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
{Mil. dol.)
Securities investments
561. U.S. investments
abroad
564. Foreign purchases
of U.S. securities
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
565. U.S. purchases
of foreign securities
(Mil.dol.)
575. Banking and other
capital transactions, net
570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
491
104
245
190
1,279
1,233
886
1,014
304
374
720
792
210
-93
488
337
-1,199
-335
-951
-1,196
-354
-20
9
29
124
1
-425
184
1,255
1,343
1,450
895
559
196
606
908
356
377
305
-71
-1,212
-1,210
-1,294
-889
-1,016
-361
183
178
160
1,302
183
1,148
711
1,058
956
553
1,768
437
346
-209
40
-729
-802
-990
-1,371
r-1,217
440
-991
-1,332
r273
P455
r2,025
pl,158
rl,745
p512
r-51
p!28
r-897
p-458
r-2,593
p-223
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
-1,891
-990
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect seriej: relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series am shown on pages 52 and 53.
SEPTEMBER 1973
!!€!»
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Qj FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Defense Indicators
Receptsand Expenditures
Year
and
month
600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (-), national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bit.dol.)
601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
264. National
602. Federal
defense purexpenditures,
national income chases
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. doi.)
616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
647. New orders, defense
products industries
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.}
(Bil.dol.)
648. New orders, defense
products
(Bil.dol.)
625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
(Mil. dol.)
1971
January
February
March
-17.*6
194 '.8
212! 4
72.3
6,706
6,767
6,763
2,038
2,010
1,528
3.85
3.25
3,28
1.71
1.79
1.51
2,508
2,619
3,398
April
May
June
-23 .*5
197.* 7
221.2
71.3
6,896
6,607
6,036
1,686
1,457
1,340
3.50
3.23
3.63
1.53
1.36
1.40
2,751
2,112
2,367
July
August
September
-23 ".2
199>U
222.6
7o'.3
r7,735
6,819
5,822
2,577
1,672
1,127
4.25
3.63
3.02
1.90
1.76
1.59
3,082
3,078
2,769
October
November
December
-24! 5
203 '.5
228 ! 0
72.1
7,183
6,749
r7,378
2,001
1,700
2,096
3.25
3.95
3.69
1.75
1.81
1.58
2,392
3,209
3,016
-13*. 8
222.9
236.' 6
76.5
r7,488
r7,543
r7,182
2,634
1,994
1,817
3.79
3.45
3.48
2.34
1.43
1.58
3,531
2,971
3,233
-19.6
225! i
244-4
76.6
r6,790
r6,824
r6,790
1,518
rl,328
rl,597
3.50
(NA)
1.76
1.49
2.82
2,866
2,848
3,126
* >4
1972
January
February
March
.
...
April
May
June
July
August
September
229.6
237. .0
7l! 9
7,336
8, OH
6,424
2,213
2,184
1,068
1.12
-7.4
1.63
1.80
3,093
2,673
2,704
October
November
December
-23. 4
236.' 9
260*,3
« •+
72*. 4
6,991
7,281
6,211
1,610
1,680
1,240
1.44
1.42
1.82
2,840
3,682
2,459
74*3
7,004
7,705
7,418
1,766
2,042
1,787
1.76
1.72
1.89
74.2
6,625
7,079
P6,630
1,316
1,720
pl,548
1.95
1.85
2.18
2,824
2,879
3,185
2,469
3,237
2,861
1973
January
February
March
-sio
253^6
253«6
.« »
April
May
June
rO.O
r262.4
262,4.
• 4•
July
August
September
(NA)
(NA)
rl.20
pi. 90
2,129
(NA)
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources arei shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
'
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
ltd*
SEPTEMBER 1973
89
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
JQ PRICE MOVEMENTS
Fixed weighted price index,
gross private product
Year
and
month
211. Index
(1958-100)
Consumer price indexes
21 1c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
782. Food
All items
781. Index©
781 c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(1967=100)
(Percent)
781c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967-100)
783. Cammodi*
ties less
food
784. Services®
(1967-100)
(1987-100)
1971
January
February . . .'
March
April
May
June
5.4
119,2
119.4
119,8
0.2
0.2
0.3
3.6
3.9
3.8
115.7
116.1
117.1
115.5
115.5
115.7
126.3
136.6
126.6
5.1
120.2
120.8
121.5
0.3
0.5
0.4
3.8
4.2
3.9
117.7
118.2
118. 8
115.9
116.5
116.9
126,8
3.7
121.8
122.1
122.2
0.2
0.4
0.1
3.7
3.1
2.9
119.0
119.3
119.0
117.1
117.5
117.4
128.8
129.3
129.8
1.5
122.4
122.6
123.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
2.9
3.1
3-1
119.3
119.8
120.5
117.5
117.6
117.7
129.9
130.3
4.1
123.2
123.3
124.0
0.2
0.5
0.1
3.1
3.3
2.9
120.5
122.4
122.4
118.1
118.2
118.6
131.5
131.8
132.1
2.5
124.3
124.7
125.0
0.2
0.3
0.1
3.2
2.8
3.4
122.3
122.3
122.5
118.6
119.1
119.2
132.4
132.7
133.1
3.1
125.5
125.7
126.2
0.4
0.3
0.4
3.8
3.7
3.9
123.3
123.9
124.8
119.5
119.9
120.3
133.5
133.8
134.1
4.1
126.6
126.9
127.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
4.1
5.0
5.9
125.5
126.4
126.3
120.3
120.5
120.7
134-6
134.9
135.4
7.0
127.7
128.6
129.8
0.5
0.7
0.9
6.6
7.2
8.0
128.9
131.4
134.5
120.9
121.3
121.9
135.7
136.2
136.6
7.9
130.7
131.5
132.4
0.6
0.6
0.6
7.4
136.4
137.9
139-2
122.4
122.9
123.5
137.0
137.5
138.1
132.7
135.1
0.2
1.9
139.9
148.5
123.6
124.2
138.4
139.3
134 i 6
.. *
.......
1363
July
August „
September
137*. 6
October
November .....
December
138 !l
ia?.5
128.2
U0.7
1972
January
Fsbruary
March
April
May
June
13915
140*.4
... ,
July
August
September
141-4
October
November
December
142.9
1973
January . .
February . . D
March
1453
„.
April
May
June
July
August
September
148.1
„
10.0
•October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month,, 1-quarter changes are placed
on 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
90
SEPTEMBER 1973
BCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
RJ PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con.
Wholesale price indexes
Year
and
month
750. All
commodities©
58. Manufactured
goods©
751. Processed
foods and feeds
752. Farm
products
Industrial commodities
"55, Index®
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
11967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
55c. Change
over 1 -month
spans 1
55c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Percent)
1971
January
February
March
111.8
112.8
113.0
111.8
112.4
112.7
111.7
112.7
113.6
109.1
112.3
111.7
112.2
112.5
112.8
0.3
0.1
0.3
3.2
3,7
3-6
April
May
June
113.3
113.8
114.3
113.0
113.5
113.8
113.8
114-5
114.4
113.0
112.6
114.2
113.3
11.3.7
113.9
0.4
0.5
0.3
4-4
5.2
4.6
July
August
September
114.6
114.9
114.5
114.5
114.9
114.7
114.5
114-9
114.6
111.3
113.9
112.0
114.5
115.1
115.0
0.6
0.5
0.0
3.6
2.8
2.8
October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
114-4
114.5
115.4
1U.5
114-5
115.1
115.0
115.6
116.8
114-2
114.8
116.3
115.0
114.9
115.3
-0.1
0.1
0.3
2.2
2.0
2.6
116.3
117.3
117.4
115.7
116.5
116.7
117.1
118.1
118.4
117.9
115.8
118.3
115-9
116.5
116.8
0.3
0.4
0.3
3.4
4.0
4.2
April
May
June
117.5
118.2
118.8
116.9
117.4
117.8
118.1
118.5
119.1
119.2
120.9
121.8
117.3
117.6
117.9
0.4
0.3
0.4
4.0
3.9
3.9
119.7
119.9
120.2
118.3
118.5
118.8
119.9
120.5
121.9
125.5
128.7
130.7
118.1
118.5
118.7
0.2
0.3
0.3
3-2
3.3
2.9
120.0
120.7
122.9
118.8
119.2
120.7
122.8
124-5
130.4
128.6
132.4
137.8
118.8
119-1
119.4
0.1
0.4
0.2
3.1
4-3
6.3
January
February
March
124.5
126.9
129.7
121.6
123.6
125.7
133.3
136.2
141.1
144-3
148.5
159-0
120.0
121.3
122.7
0.3
1.0
1.2
9.0
10.7
12.5
April
May
June
130.7
133.5
136.7
140.2
144-9
151-2
134.9
142.7
160.8
168.5
179.1
169.9
234.2
124-4
125-8
126.9
126.9
127.4
1-3
1.2
1.0
0.1
0.4
12.0
10.8
July
August
September
126.7
128.7
130.9
129.8
134.0
July . . .
August
September
...
October
November
December
1973
144.6
165-5
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to cqntain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
Percent changes are centered within the spans: l--.month percent changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month percent changes
are placed'on the 4-th month.
RCII
SEPTEMBER 1973
91
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
^1 WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adj.1
Year
and
month
Real earnings
Current dollar earnings
740. Index
(1967^100)
740c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)
740c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
741. Index
(1967=100)
_[Percent]_
741c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
741c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
859. Real
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
spendable
private nonfarm economy
avg. wkly.
earnings
Current dollar compensation
nonagri.prod.
or nonsuov
745c. Change 74Sc. Change
workers
745. Index
over 1 -quarter over4-quarter
spans2
spans2
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
percent)
percent)
(1967=100)
(1967 dol.)
1971
January
February
March
.. . ,,
126.0
126.7
127.2
1.0
0.6
0.4
7.4
7.8
7.6
105.5
106.0
106.2
0.7
0.5
0.2
3.6
3.7
3.7
91.49
91.82
92.08
128.3
April
May
June
128. 0
128.9
129-5
0.6
0.7
0.5
6.6
6.8
6.6
106.5
106.7
106.7
0.3
0.2
0.0
2.7
2.5
2.6
92.30
92.56
92.40
130.'8
July
August
September
130.1
130.9
131.4
0.5
0.6
0.4
5.9
4-5
6.3
106.9
107.3
107.5
0.2
0.4
0.2
2.1
1.4
3.3
92.44
92.53
92.72
132.9
October
November
December
131.7
131-8
133.5
0.2
0.1
1.3
6.9
6.0
6.5
107.6
107.5
108.5
0.1
-0.1
3-9
2.8
134-5
January ........
February
March
134.5
134.8
135.6
0.7
0.2
0.6
7.6
7.6
5.6
109. Q
April
May
June
136.6
136.7
137.2
0.7
0.1
0.4
5.3
5.5
5.6
109.9
109.7
109.9
July
August
September
138.0
138.5
139.3
0.6
0.4
0.6
5.7
5.9
6.9
110.1
110.2
110.4
October
November
December
140.4
140.7
141.9
0.8
0.2
0.9
6.4
5.9
5.8
110.9
110.8
1.11.5
142.3
142.5
143-3
0.3
0.1
0.6
5.8
5.8
r.5.9
111.3
110.7
110.4
-0.2
-0.5
-0.3
April
May
June
144.4
144.7
r!46.0
0.8
0.2
r6.6
P7.2
rO.9
110.5
110.1
rllO.4
-0.1
-0.4
rO.3
July
August
September
rl46.9
PU7.5
rO.6
pO.4
rllO.9
p!09.2
p-1.5
7.6
6.'a
7'. 9
6.'?
6.8
0.9
•3.3
93.02
93.06
93.70
0.5
4.3
4.1
2.7
95.09
95.32
95.71
137.6
0.2
2.0
2.6
2.0
96.70
95.95
96.07
139.4
0.2
0.1
0.2
1.8
2.1
2.9
96.39
96.36
96.89
141.6
0.5
-0.1
2.2
0.9
0.6
-0.1
97.49
96.98
96.78
H3.8
95.81
96.08
95.67
147,*5
95-96
95-61
r95.29
149.6
7.3
4.7
6^6
1972
108.8
109-3
-0.2
0.5
0.5
-0.2
9-8
6.5
5.2
6^9
6.4
7.2
6.5
7.3
197-1
January
February
March
rO.5
-0.7
-1.3
r-1.9
r-0.7
p-2.6
10.8
5.S
r96.l6
P94-34
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
1
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Percent ehangep are eentored within the spans: 1-inonth changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-quarter changes are placed
on the let month of the 2d quarter, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle
month of the 3d nuarter.
92
SEPTEMBER 1973
BCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q| WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy-Con.
Year
and
month
Real compensation
746. Index
(1967=100)
746c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
746c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries®
748. First
year average
changes
749. Average
changes over
life of
contract
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Output per man-hour, total
private economy
770. Index
(1967=100)
770c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
770c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm
(1967-100)
1971
January
February
March
107. A
April
May
June
103.2
July
August
September
108.9
October
November
December
109!6
10.6
•4.2
3-3
107.5
11.5
3!l
108.6
109.3
12.7
2.4
4.7
8.7
3!o
106 !l
4^6
10?! 6
i!6
108 !i
i!i
109!!
3*.7
109! 8
4^2
111! 3
4-7
112! 9
2^9
114^2
3.2
10.6
110.1
3. *3
3.4
2.0
8.2
.* .
...
15.0
2.6
8.6
8.5
2)4
1972
January
February
March
110.2
April
May
June
111! 8
July
August
September
112! 5
October
November
December
113.3
9.7
6.1
110.7
8.1
2.0
112.5
•8.7
7.3
3.0
2.8
i!s
6.5
7.3
3.4
2.7
2.1
8.2
3.3
3.1
113! 3
7.3
5.2
6.6
114.8
1973
January
February
March
'
April
May
June
4-7
P7.3
4.1
P 5.5
U/..6
115.6
115-9
-2.8
p7.6
-0.7
p6.6
115.8
115.4
113.8
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
<
1
Percentrchanges are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4—quarter
"^•^"OR are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
itCII SEPTEMBER
1973
93
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
JQj CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS1
Unemployment rates
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month
841. Total
(Thous.)
842. Employed
(Thous.}
843. Unemployed
844. Males
20 years and
over
(Thous.)
(Percent)
845. Females
20 years and
over
(Percent)
846. Both
sexes 16-1 9
years of age
(Percent)
848. Negro
and other races
847. White
(Percent)
(Percent)
1971
83 , 693
83,341
83,413
78,679
78, Ul
78,417
5,C14
4,900
4,996
4-4
4-3
4.3
5.7
5.7
5.9
17.3
16.6
17.1
5-5
5-4
5.5
9.7
9.7
9.5
April
May
June
83,712
83,964
83,498
78,736
78,906
78,653
4,976
5,058
4,845
4.3
4-4
4-3
5.9
5.8
5.7
16.6
17.4
16.5
5.5
5.5
5.4
9.6
10.1
9.3
July
August
, . ...
September ....
84,039
84,371
84,503
79,095
79,264
79,476
4,944
5,107
5,027
4.3
4.5
4.4
5.6
5.8
5.7
17.1
16.9
16.7
5.3
5.6
5.4
10.0
9.9
10.2
October
November
December ....
84,696
85,078
85,145
79,738
79,987
80,040
4,958
5,091
5,105
4.3
4-4
4.4
5.6
5.7
5.7
16.9
16.9
17.1
5.3
5.5
5.4
10. a
January
February . . .
March
85,644
85,518
86,264
80,579
80,594
81,216
5,065
4,924
5,048
4.2
4.1
4.2
5.6
5.1
5.5
17.5
18.5
17.4
5.3
5.2
5.3
10.9
10.6
10.4
April
May
June
86,184
86,431
86,554
81,209
81,458
81,752
4,975
4,973
4,802
4.2
4.1
4.0
5.4
5.7
5.6
16,7
15.7
14.9
5.3
5.2
5.1
9.3
10.3
9.2
July
... .
August
. „
September . . . ,
86,597
86,941
87,066
81,782
82,061
82,256
4,815
4,880
4,810
3.9
3.9
3.8
5-7
5.5
5.4
15.5
16.7
16.2
5.0
5.1
5.0
10.0
9.7
10.0
October
November
December
87,236
87,023
87,267
82,397
82,525
82,780
4,839
4,498
4,487
3.9
3.5
3.4
5.5
5.0
5.1
15.4
15.6
15.7
5.0
4.6
4.6
10. Q
10.1
9.6
January
February . ...
March . ....
86,921
87,569
88,268
82,555
83,127
83,889
4,366
4,442
4,379
3.3
3.4
3.4
5.3
4.9
4.9
14.3
15.3
14-2
4.6
4.6
4-4
8.9
9.0
9.0
April
May
June
88,350
88,405
88,932
83,917
8^,024
84,674
4,433
4,381
4,258
3.4
3.4
3.2
4.7
4.6
4.9
15.4
15.4
13.3
4.5
4.4
4.3
9.1
9.4
8.5
88,810
88,651
84,614
84,434
4,196
4,217
3.0
3.1
4.9
4.9
14-4
14.3
4.1
4.2
9.3
8.7
January
February
March
,. .
9.6
10.5
1972
, . ...
1973
»
July
August ...,.„.
September
October
November ....
December
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 60.
1
Beginning with January 1972, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to January 1972, the
I960 Census is used as the benchmark.
94
SEPTEMBER 1973
BCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
R ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
207. Gap (potential less actual)
Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
Year
and
quarter
206. Potential level
205. Actual value
(Ann. rate, fail, dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil.dol.}
(Ann. rate, bil.dol.)
1970
First Quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
721.2
722.1
727.2
719.3
746.4
754-3
762.3
770.4
+25.2
+32.2
+35.1
+51.1
735.1
740.4
746.9
759.0
778.5
786.7
795.1
803.5
+43.4
+46.3
+48.2
+44.5
768.0
785.6
796.7
812.3
812.0
820.6
829-3
838.0
+44.0
+35.0
+32.6
+25.7
829.3
834-3
847.0
856.0
+17.7
+21.7
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 61.
Special Note on Potential GNP
The following note has been provided by the Council of Economic
Advisers regarding potential GNP.
The idea of potential GNP has had a long history. Its measurement by the
Council of Economic Advisers was started in the Economic Report of the
Council in 1962. Since that time it has been used as a standard with which to
evaluate the past and future behavior of the economy.
Potential GNP purports to measure what the economy would (produce if
all of its resources were fully utilized given the technology and institutional
arrangements that have existed at the time. "Fully utilized" has never meant
the kind of utilization that would prevail, say, under wartime conditions but
rather the utilization that could be expected under conditions of reasonable
price stability. This has always been less than complete utilization. Under
ordinary circumstances some unemployment is present because some
workers are in the process of changing jobs; similarly, some old (plants are.
idle because market conditions do not permit them to operate profitably. In
the past this degree of utilization has been reflected in an overall
unemployment rate of 4 percent. The rate of inflation associated with that
degree of unemployment has typically not been specified. Futhermore,
notions of what constitutes reasonable price stability can vary overltime.
Potential, GNP is not something ordinarily observable. In practice, the
Council in 1962 made the judgment that the economy was operating at 100
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
SEPTEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCII
percent of potential in mid-1955. Since that time potential GNP has been
estimated to grow at differing annual rates, as follows: 3.5 percent from the
first quarter of 1952 to the fourth quarter of 1962, 3.75 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1962 to the fourth quarter of 1965, 4 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1965 to the fourth quarter of 1969, and 4.3 percent from
the fourth quarter of 1969 to the second quarter of 1973. These rates of
growth in potential GNP have reflected the differing rates of growth in the
potential labor force, in potential annual hours of work and in output per
manhour at potential. Specifically, since the fourth quarter of 1969 this has
reflected a 1.8 percent rise in the labor force, a 0.2 percent decline in annual
hours of work and a 2.7 percent rise in output per manhour per year.
Although potential is presented in the chart on page 61 and the table
above as a point estimate each quarter, it is clearly subject to a margin of
error and consequently, as with any measure of capacity, should be used
with considerable caution. There are uncertainties regarding both the growth
and the level of potential. Even though it is estimated that potential grew at
an annual rate of 4.3 percent in recent years, the growth of the actual labor
force, annual hours and output per manhour have differed considerably from
those specifically assumed for potential growth. And clearly there is
uncertainty about how fast the economy's potential will grow in the future.
Possibly more important is the uncertainty regarding the level of potential
and thus the size of the gap between actual and potential.
95
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
g| ANALYTICAL RATIOS
Year
and
month
850. Ratio,
output to capacity,
manufacturing
851. Ratio,
inventories to sales,
manufacturing
and trade
(Percent)
(Ratio)
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to
shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods
industries
(Ratio)
853. Ratio,
production of
business equipment
to consumer goods
(1967=100)
854. Ratio,
personal saving
to disposable
personal income
(Ratio)
860. Ratio,
hel planted
advertising
to persons
unemployed1
(Ratio)
857. Vacancy rate
in total rental
housing®
(Percent)
1971
January
February
March
75.6
1.64
1.63
1.61
2.91
2.88
2.80
84.2
85.3
84.1
o.osi
0.463
0.474
0.471
5*.3
April
May
June
75^6
1.61
1.60
1.59
2.79
2.69
2.59
83.3
82.4
82.3
0.085
0.473
0.471
0.516
5^3
July
August
September
74*7
1.61
1.59
1.60
2.63
2.72
2.69
83.5
84.1
84.1
0.080
0.512
0.496
0.485
5^6
October
November
December
74.6
1.60
1.57
1.58
2.66
2.63
2.59
84.2
83.0
83.1
0.076
0.498
0.491
0.496
5^6
January
February
March
75^6
1.56
1.56
1.54
2.57
2.58
2.55
83-0
83.5
84.7
0.068
0.523
0.538
r 0.548
5*3
April
May
June
77.9
1.53
1.52
1.53
2.52
2.52
2.62
83.9
84.8
85.3
0.058
0.569
0.575
0.601
5.5
July
August
September
79-4
1.53
1.49
1.49
2.61
2.56
2.60
85.6
86.2
87.5
0.057
r 0.643
0.653
0.637
5*3
October
November
December
81.5
1.47
1.46
-1.45
2.55
2.53
2.59
87.9
89.0
89-6
0.066
0.671
0.721
0.776
5*. 6
January . . . . „
February
March
p82.8
1.43
1-43
1.41
2.57
2.58
2.66
90.1
90.8
90.7
0.059
0.832
0.798
0.823
5.7
April
May
June
P83.3
1.42
1.42
1.44
2.70
2.75
2.85
r92.0
r92.6
0.059
0.813
rO.829
rO.860
s!a
2.84
(NA)
r93.3
P95.1
...
1972
1973
„
.
July
August
September . . .
pl.U
(NA)
91.4
0.930
eO.896
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 62.
1
Beginning with January 1972, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for computing the unemployment component of this serioo.
Prior to January 1972, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark.
96
SEPTEMBER 1973
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
yn DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
D1. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
{35 industries)
1 -month
span
1 -mo nth
span
9-month
span
9-month
span
D11. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
The Conference Board
(^industries)1
1-quarter
span
3-quarter
span
D34. Profits,
D19. Index of stock
mfg., FNCB
prices, 500 common stocks
about 1,000
{72 industries) 2 ©
orporations)
1-quarter
span
1 -month
span
9-month
span
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1 -month
span
9-month
span
1971
January
February
March
76.2
83.3
83.3
44-3
61.4
51.4
60.0
62.9
74.3
59
24
58
31.0
73-8
95.8
87.5
71.5
98.6
95.1
91.0
46.2
61.5
80.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
April
May
June
40.5
76.2
47.6
78.6
59.5
64.3
57.1
55.7
65.7
65.7
54-3
65.7
41
59
59
84.0
41.7
27.8
97.2
77.8
56.9
80.8
38.5
46.2
61.5
69.2
69.2
July
August
September
61.9
26.2
21.4
71.4
83.3
73-8
51.4
57.1
41-4
71.4
71.4
80.0
65
...
59
59
44-4
23.6
71.5
31-9
43.1
44-4
57.7
61.5
53.8
53.8
53.8
46.2
October
November
December
78.6
83.3
71.4
81.0
88.1
92.9
60.0
64-3
58.6
77.1
85.7
91.4
47
88
51
18.1
95.8
50.7
59.7
65.3
46.2
34-6
61.5
53.8
80.8
84.6
January
February
March
28.6
88.1
4Q.5
85.7
85,7
90.5
58.6
54.3
62.9
82.9
94-3
82.9
76
82
62
89.6
70.1
76.4
62.5
59.0
68.1
65.4
73.1
76.9
76.9
76.9
84.6
April
May
June
88,1
77.1
51.4
54-3
85.7
83.6
91.4
76
82
64
81.0
83.3
88.1
88.1
71.5
21.5
43.1
84.7
67.6
43.7
65.4
76.9
73-1
92.3
84.6
84.6
July
August
September
26.2
85.7
69.0
69-0
59.5
19-0
50.0
80.0
61.4
94.3
91.4
82.9
50
82
57
30.6
76.4
33.8
54-9
54.9
47.9
61.5
65.4
50.0
76.9
61.5
69.2
October
November
December
50.0
52.4
28.6
73.8
69.0
73.8
57.1
62.9
51.4
91.4
91.4
97.1
65
100
59
33.8
90.1
77.5
42.0
36.2
34-8
61.5
65-4
69.2
76.9
84.6
88.5
19.0
95.2
50.0
57.1
67.1
61.4
74.3
90.0
85.7
88.6
76
P94
64
r28.6
26.8
14.5
19.6
26.5
19.1
25.0
84.6
84.6
76.9
92.3
92.3
92.3
P71.4
64
21.7
14-7
15.4
19.1
r26.2
61.4
54-3
51.4
61.5
80.8
76.9
r54.8
P35.7
r48.6
P40.0
71. 4
2.8
1972
4-8
1973
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
47.6
33.3
rti2.9
P38.1
P53
66.2
a. 9
3
3
92.3
92.3
73.1
65.4
42.3
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising {half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on 2d
month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index 019 which requires no adjustment and index 034 which is adjusted only for the index. Table E4 identifies the components
for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 63.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board.
* Based on 72 components through August 1972, on 71 components through January 1973> on 69 components through April 1973> and
on 68 components thereafter. Component data are not shown in table E4 but are available from the source agency.
3
Average for September 4, 11, and 18.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ SEPTEMBER 1973
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
97
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
19 DIFFUSION !NOEXES~Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Leading Indicators-Con.
Year
and
month
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas)1
1-month
span
9-month
span
041. Number of employees
on nonayricultural payrolls
(30 industries)
1-month
span
6-month
span
D47. Index of industrial
production (24 industries)
D58. Index of wholesale
prices (22 manufacturing
industries)®
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1 -mo nth
span
1-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
6-month
span
(3)
1971
9-month
span
f)
43.3
55.0
a. 7
54.2
50.0
41.7
70.8
70.8
72.9
79.5
75.0
72.7
77.3
81.8
81.8
43.5
65.2
73.9
80.4
87.0
(NA)
January . ,
February
March
38.3
61.7
42.6
46.8
61.7
72.3
April
May
June
43.9
U.7
40.4
57.4
21.3
48.9
70.0
83.3
33.3
43.3
55-0
65.0
79.2
58.3
56.2
62.5
64.6
75.0
68.2
72.7
72.7
90.9
95.5
86.4
73.9
52.2
73.9
(NA)
July
.. ,
August . . , . „
September . ,
57.4
25.5
46.8
42.6
57.4
63.8
50.0
60.0
90.0
65.0
58.3
61.7
52.1
45.8
75.0
62.5
66.7
62.5
86.4
90.9
38.6
86.4
72.7
77.3
(NA)
87.0
39.1
(NA)
October
November ,
December
57-4
66.0
59.6
70.2
74.5
57.4
58.3
65.0
51.7
78.3
80.0
75.0
58.3
60.4
54.2
70.8
87.5
91.7
25.0
45.5
68.2
75.0
77.3
86.4
47.8
78.3
37.0
(M)
(NA)
91.3
January
February
March
42.6
46.8
59.6
68.1
63.8
76.6
80.0
71.7
86.7
88.3
90.0
90.0
70.8
70.8
77.1
95.8
95.8
83.3
86.4
90.9
79.5
90.9
95.5
95.5
45.7
71.7
87.0
100.0
91.3
100.0
April
May
June
55.3
36.2
53.2
78.7
57.4
70.2
85.0
80.0
78.3
81.7
81.7
85.0
87.5
77.1
75-0
91.7
87.5
95.8
77.3
90.9
79.5
95.5
100.0
100.0
47.8
69.6
37.0
89.1
91.3
95.7
July
August
September
66.0
66.0
46.8
83.0
61.7
80.9
40.0
90.0
85.0
86.7
83.3
86.7
81.3
75.0
87.5
87.5
87.5
£7.5
79.5
75.0
81.8
90.9
90.9
88.6
69.6
76.1
30.4
95.7
69.6
91.3
October
November
December
59.6
81.9
38.3
91-5
93.6
61.7
96.7
86.7
78.3
88.3
93.3
91.7
66.7
75.0
66.7
87.5
91.7
91.7
68.2
84.1
86.4
95.5
95.5
100.0
100.0
28.3
52.2
100.0
100.0
95.7
67.0
74.5
36.2
68.1
66.0
74.5
73.3
83.3
75.0
88.3
78.3
85.0
79.2
91.7
62.5
83.3
r79.2
r87.5
95.5
97.7
95.5
100.0
95.5
95.5
84.8
76.1
65.2
100.0
r97.8
r97.S
April
May
June
53.2
36.2
57,4
38.3
66.7
66.7
r75.0
rS1.7
p6S.3
50.0
r77.1
r54.2
r91.7
P77.1
95-5
90.9
84.1
95.5
95.5
30.4
69.6
r56.5
P95-7
July
August
September
63.6
44.7
»
41.7
36.7
33.3
(m]
(NA)
(MI)
(NA)
1972
1973
January
February
March
.. .
„....
r46.7
p63.3
r64.6
P50.0
70.5
86.4
69.6
P43.5
October
November
December .
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the2d
month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires
no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
]Component data are not available for publication and therefore are not shown in table E4.
beginning with August 1971 are not comparable with earlier data due to a revised sample.
98
SEPTEMBER 1973
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1973
Diffusion index components
January
February
April
March
May
July1"
June
August P
01. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(Average weekly hours)
All manufacturing industries
40.3
Percent rising of 21 components
(19)
+
41.0
40.9
(95)
(50)
o
40.9
40.7
40.6
(48)
(33)
(26)
42.0
41-1
40.4
41.9
40.7
40.1
+
40.8
40.6
(55)
(36)
Durable goods industries:
+
+
+
42.7
40.7
40.6
41.1 +
42.4 i o
42.2
42.4
Fabricated metal products
Machinery except electrical
41.4 +
42.4 +
Electrical equipment and supplies
Transportation equipment . .
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
o
+
Stone, clay and glass products
Primary meta! industries
o
-
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
42.5
39.9
39.0
o
r41.9 +
+
r40.9
o
40.1
42.3
41.9
-
r42.2
41.6
42.6
-
+
40.6
43.5
o
-
40.6
42.1
+
-
40.8
39-0
+
+
40.1
36.5
42.4
41.0
40.6
+
42.3
42.1
o
+
42.3
42.2
41.9
42.9
41.7
42.6
+
41.8
42.5
40.4 +
42.3 +
41.1
43.2
40.6
42.0
o
+
40.4 +
38*7 +
40.8
39.4
40.7
39.3
+
o
+
o
42.5
40.7 +
40.0
41.8
41.0
39.5
+
41.9 +
42.3
42.4 o
42.0
42.4
41.5 •o
42.5
41.5
42.3
41.3
42.5
-
40.1 o
r41.9 +
40.1
42.4
40.0
42.3
40.7
39.1
-
r38.9
+
o
40.8
38.9
40.5
38.7
40.4
35.3
+
r37.8
40.9
36.0
o
r36.0
o
40.5
+
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
. ...
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
+
40.2 o
35.6 +
40.2
36.0
39.5 +
34-5 +
41.2 +
36.0 +
41.3
36.2
42.5 +
37.8 +
43.0 +
38.0 o
43.1
38.0
o
42.8
38.0
o
o
42.8
38.0
+
+
42.0
42.1
41.6
41.9
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c
Leather and leather products
+
+
40.1
33.9
....
...
+
+
+
41.6
36.1
+
o
42.0
41.9
o
+
42.0
42.0
-
41.9
41.9
41.0 +
37.2 4-
41.5
37.8
o
+
41.5
37.9
o
+
41.5
38.2
... +
39,218
+
(67)
Percent rising of 35 components
39,765
+
(61)
41,021
+
41,341
+ 42, U9
(61)
(74)
+
+
5,694 +
4,449 +
6,015
4,635
+
-
6,500
4,556
+
-
6,656
4,488
+
+
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
+
+
6,116 5,32C +
6,093
5,496
+
+
6,443
5,727
-
6,U1
5,710
+
-
6,544
5,696
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries
+
-
10,657
6,982
10,203
7,323
+
+
10,281 +
+
7,5H
10,503
7,573
+
-
10,739
7,567
+
+
o
40.4
39.7
41.0
35.9 -
40.7
35.5
-
42.4
37.6
o
+
42.0 +
42.4 +
42.2
42.5
40.7 +
38.1
40.9
38.0 +
40.6
38.1
r42.0
41.7
+
40.3 +
37.8 +
42.6
37.7
42.7
37.8
2
+
43,016
-
(51)
(54)
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
r40.1 +
o
40.8
40.8
37.9
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
-
7,042 4,861 -
7,015
4,672
42,697
-
(49)
42,019
(40)
+
6,658
5,008
+
-
7,145
4,773
-
5,682
+
-
6,902
5,676
-
6,533
5,564
+
+
11,329
7,599
-
10,980
7,473
-
10,833
7,171
+ 6,719
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) - rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. NA = not available,
p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are all included in the
totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here.
BCD SEPTEMBER 1973
99
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1973
Diffusion index components
March
February
January
Msy
April
June
July
August
September
+ 178.1
+ 191.0
- 187.1
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price
index (1967^ 100)
+ 139.3
+ 147.5
+ 155.3
+ 158.2
+
162.9 + 170.1
(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components . ,
(85)
(77)
(85)
Copper scrop (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib )
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb,) ....
Zine(lb)
Burlap (yd.) .
+
+
+
+
+
Cotton (Ib.K 12-rnarket average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops {Ib.)
Hides (Ib.) ..
Rosin (100 Ib,)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow {Ib.)
+ 0.377
+ 0.353
+ 0.363
- 0.406
- 0.402
+ 0.409
+ 2.497 + 2.676 + 3.539
+ 0.481 + 0.488 - 0.408
+ 20.728
- 20.708
- 20.667
+ 0.228
+ 0.251 + 0.290
+ 0.077
+ 0.091 + 0.101
0.463 + 0.492 + 0.526
0.055
+ 0.059 + 0.062
43.236 - 42.757
+ 43-265
1.796 + 1.967 + 2.032
0.188 + 0.195 + 0.199
0,183 + 0.192 + 0.195
(62)
(77)
(81)
(73)
+ 0.570 + 0.603
- 0.061 + 0.062
+ 47.418
+ 47.723
- 1.980 + 2.087
+ 0.205 o 0.205
+ 0.201 + 0.202
+ 0.659
+ 0.064
+ 52.658
+ 2.173
+ 0.209
- 0.201
+ 0.681o 0.681
o 0.064 o 0.064
+ 55.736 - 54.079
+ 2.396 + 2.452
- 0.206 - 0.204
- 0.196 o 0.196
+ 0.418 +
- 0.396
- 3.296
- 0.326
+
+ 20.851 +
+
+ 0.309
+ 0.113 +
+ 0.475
- 0.377
+ 3.196
- 0.342
+ 21.316
+ 0.370
+ 0.166
+ 0.534
+ 0.481
+ 3.241
+ 0.378
+ 21.644
+ 0.430
- 0.164
0.469
0.382
2.811
0.343
21.081
0.312
0.139
(45)
(65)
+ 0.688
+ 0.550
+ 3.346
+ 0.430
+ 21.756
- 0.420
+ 0.204
- 0.677
+ 0*066
+54-166
- 2 e 393
o 0.204
- 0.187
+ 0.830
+ 0.558
+ 3.393
- 0.373
-21.644
- 0.374
- 0.164
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 3
(Thousands of employees)
All nonaijrieultural payrolls
Percent rising of 30 components ,.
Ordnance and accessories
. . .
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing
+ 74,252
(73)
o
102
+
539
+
424
+
539
- 1,031
+ 1,091
+ 1,324
+ 1,316
+ 1,310
+
292
+
339
Food and kindred products
+ 1,181
Tobacco manufactures
o
59
Textile mill products
893
Apparel and other textile products
- 1,161
Paper and allied products
+
548
Printing and publishing
+
662
Chemicals and allied products
o
590
Petroleum and coal products
o
119
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c
+
522
Leather and leather products
253
Mining
,
+
610
Contract construction
+ 3,498
Transportation and public utilities .... + 4,574
Wholesale trade
+ 4,001
Retail trade
+ 12,012
Finance, insurance, real estate
+ 3,995
Service
+ 12,621
Federal government
- 2,634
State and local government
- 10, §44
+ 74,715
+ 74,914
(83)
+
103
+
543 o
+
426 +
+
547 +
+ 1,033 + 1,104 +
+ 1,328 +
+ 1,337 +
+ 1,327 +
+
295 +
+
343 o
+ 1,184 +
61 +
+
902
+ 1,173 +
+
552 +
661 o
+
587
+
115
+
529
+
252
+
+
612
+ 3,594 +
+ 4,582 + 4,022
+
+ 12,092
+
+ 4,014 +
+ 12,682
+
- 2,628
+
+ 10,905
+
(75)
+ 75,105
(67)
101
102
543
+
544
428 +
430
550
550 o
1,027 + 1,033
1 , 108 + 1,118
1,343 + 1,356
1,349 + 1,361
1,334 + 1,351
296
298
o
343
343
1,181 - 1,178
63
63 o
900
o
900
1,174 + 1,182
552
554
661 +
663
592 +
593
117
115
536
531 +
256
253 +
608
610
3,604 - 3,571
4, 580
+ 4,591
4,029
+ 4,044
12,134 + 12,173
4,024
+ 4,031
+ 12,746
12,716
2,631 - 2,628
+ 10,986
10,943
+ 75,321
(67)
+ r75,526
(75)
98
99
o
r542
542
428
+
r436
+
555 o
r555
+ 1,044 + 1,052
+ 1,123 + rl,126
+ 1,366 + .rl,380
+ 1,370 + rl,389
+ 1,354 - rl,348
306
+
304 +
o
343
+
r344
- 1,170 - rl,l65
o
63
o
63
900
o
900 o
- 1,174 + rl,175
+
557
o
557
664
661 +
+
596 +
r599
+
117
o
115
531 +
544
o
256 +
257
o
608
+
r629
+ 3,620
+ r3,654
+ 4, 593 + r4, 597
+ r4,072
+ 4,046
+ 12,210
-r!2,190
+ 4,049
+ 4,0^4
+ 12,776
+r!2,820
+ 2,641 - 2,613
+ 11,001 +rll,046
or75,515
+ 75,807
(47)
+
r99
r540
r432
+
r557
- rl,050
+ rl,127
- rl,377
+ rl,393
- rl,339
r305
r3U
- rl,l60
o
r63
0
r900
- rl,139
r5S6
r662
+
r605
+
rl!8
+
r546
r255
+ r631
+ r3,679
+ r4,599
- r4,069
+r!2,204
- r4,047
+r!2,831
- 2,603
+rll,054
(63)
98
542
434
555
+ 1,061
o 1,127
+ 1,401
- 1,380
+ 1,344
+
307
338
+
+
- 1,129
59
893
+ 1,158
+
558
657
603
o
118
+
550
252
+
633
+ 3,688
+ 4,614
+ 4,108
+ 12,238
+ 4,066
+ 12,921
+ 2,613
+ 11,115
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling, NA - not available,
p " preliminary, r - revised.
Average for September 4, 11, and 18.
2
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The industrial materials price index is not
seasonally adjusted.
3
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
100
SEPTEMBER 1973
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1973
Diffusion index components
January
Fjebruary
May*1
April
March
June1*
Julyr
August P -
047. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1
(1967=100)
+
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components*
Durable manufactures:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
122.2
+
+
123.7
+
(62)
(92)
(79)
-
123.4
124.1 +
(50)
124.8
+
(77)
123!l
125.7
+
+
124.7
126.2
+
123^5
128.4
+
+
125^8
128.9
+
+
126 !l
130.3
+
+
Machinery and allied goods
Nonelectrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments
+
+
+
+
116! 3
+
+
+
+
117! 3
120.8
107.6
130.1
+
+
+
+
119.0
123.9
110.3
133-8
+
+
121.5
123.8
110.0
134.7
+
+
+
+
124.0
125.4
111.0
138.9
+
+
+
+
Lumber, clay, and glass
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
+
+
126.'8
125.8
+
126! 6
+
+
128.9
129.5
+
-
13o!4 +
129.1
132.0
127.5
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous manufactures
+
119.1
140.5
+
+
+
+
122.8
143.0
+
123.8
141.6
+
+
126.5
Nondurable manufactures:
Textiles, apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
+
+
-
125-3
112.3
+
+
+
126.1
112.6
127.1
112.4
126.1
111.7
+
-
85.1
+
-
85.0
+
86.8
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
+
13l! 8
+
+
134!l
113.0
+
-
137.1
112.4
-
112.1
133.6
112.2
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber .
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
+
+
+
146.4
127.3
157.1
+
+
147. 2
124.1
160.4
+
146.8
123.5
163.4
+
+
+
Foods and tobacco
Foods
Tobacco products
+
+
120.5
107.9
+
+
122.9
110.3
+
12l! 8
+
-
99.1
107.7
+
+
103.9
109.1
Mining:
Coal
0 il and gas extraction
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
+
(54)
+
121.2
110.0
131.9
125.6
126.5
126.2
(65)
(50)
+
-
127.2
132.9
+
127.1
135.7
125^6
127.4
112.2
139.1 •
+
+
125." 5
127.0
112.9
139.4
+
+
-
126^0
127.4
104.7
139.1
-
130.6
126.7
+
+
131*5
128.1
-
126.4
144.4
o
-
126.4
141.7
(NA)
(NA)
127.9
110.8
-
113.4
127.2
112.6
83.0
+
+
+
86.6
-
(NA)
84.5
+
+
135.1
113.2
+
135^0
114.7
+
+
136^4
114-8
147.8 +
126.9 +
165.1 +
150.2
128.5
166.8
+
-
150.0
129.5
164.4
+
+
151.3
128.2
170.1
+
-
122.4
111.2
-
121.0
108.1
+
+
121.6
122.6
106.4
109.8
127.0
133.6
129.0
128.5
(NA)
(NA)
+
81.3
122.3
H2.4
H4.5
127.2
110.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
+
+
136! 3
106.9
+
+
13l! 9
107.8
I2l! 3
118.1
-
+
-
105.7
107.9
+
108.3
+
+
100.9
108.4
+
+
+
127.8
109.4
+
-
128.5
108.8
o
127.0
108.8
-
112.9
99.9
109.4
110.4
121 ! 6 +
105.2
+
129.4
110.1
123.9
(NA)
114.7
+
+
152.3
152.9
(NA)
(NA)
+
+
122.5
123.5
(NA)
(NA)
+
+
135.0
+
+
104.2
112.5
119.9
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. NA - not available,
p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
SEPTEMBER 1973
ItCII
101
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1973
Diffusion index components
January
March
February
April
June
July
August
- r41,179
4 r42,712
o p42,707
May
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES 1
(Millions of dollars)
4
All retail sales
Percent rising of 23 components^*
..
40,707
+ 41,242
+ 41,979
(76)
(85)
Grocery storos
.
Eating and drinking p locos
Department stores
,
Mail-order nouses (department store merchandise)
+
+
+
+
Variety storos
Men's and boys' wear stores .
.
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Shoe stores
+
+
4
+
Furniture homB furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware storos
+
+
4
4
640
1,545
370
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tiro battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations ,
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
+
4
o
4
+
7,904 4
603 4
4
2,7U
1,246 4
759 4
7,800
3,057
4,212
455
+
4
+
4
703
476
741 4
349
681
471
788
348
+
4
+
+
1,U5
+ 1,215 4
659 o
+ 1,556 +
381 +
7,945
630
2,821
1,254
795
+
+
o
-
41,185
4
41,735
(70)
(30)
(65)
o
+
4
7,894
3,057
4,101
442
-
(56)
8,012
3,060
4,167
452
4
4
4
4
8,074
3,096
4,326
453
4
656
444
706
339
4
4
4
688
456
753
335
1,184 +
659
1,547 389
1,208
658
1,508
388
-
-
7,927
628
2,868
1,280
783
7,834 4
3,089 4,439 489
738
506
825
397
8,127
642
2,821
1,241
779
4
4
4
(70)
(U)
8,551
3,077
4,376
(W)
r8,000
r3,085
r4,329
r450
+
+
4
4
4
4
4
r709
r463
r780
338
694
468
788
356
(NA
4
4
4
4
4
1,203
635
1,546
393
4
4
rl,!8l 4
r675
rl,520 r426
1,231
650
1,505
395
(NA
(NA
NA
(NA
4
4
4
4
7,870
633
2,884
1,291
799
-
7,988
674
2,881
1,318
815
(NA)
4
4
r7,328 4
r6l5 4
r2,843 4
rl,3U 4
r807 4
128.7
4
130.9
-
129.8
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'487
(m
(NA
(NA
(NA
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES3
(1967=100)
All manufacturing industries
4
Percent rising of 22 components
Durable goods;
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and household durables
Nonmotallic minerals products
Iron and steel
121.6
+
123-6 4
(98)
(96)
+ 151.0 4
4 112.6 +
4 128.2 +
4
131.9 4
125.7
+
(96)
126.7
+ 182.0
4
114.1
+ 130.0
4 134.0
183.1
4 186.9 4
115.1 4 115.2
131.1
4 130.5 4
4 135.3 4 135.9
4 121.0
4 '124.7
+ 125.8
+ 124.3
4 128.3
+ 125.0
4 126.7
4 124.9
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
133.2
126.7
128.3
126.4
4 135.0
4
123.1 4
111.7 4
119.0 4
118.6 4
117.9
124-4
125-2
123.9
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vohiclis and equipment
Miscellaneous products
4
+
+
121.1
110.9
118.2
115.8
4
+
o
+
121.5
111.0
118.2
117.1
+
+
+
4
4
4
4
+
+
132.4 4
126.0 +
114-5 4
111.4 +
116.5 4
137.0
128.2
119.2
111.8
116.8
+ 141.4 - 139.8
+ 130.0 4 133.3
4 127.7 4 129.8
4 115.2 4 118.7
+ 117.0 4 117.7
4
+
4
4
4
115.8
105.1
112.3
110.0
143.9
4
4
4
+
+
116.5
105.6
118.7
110.1
144-9
4 118.3
4 106.7
+ 119.4
+ 110.3
- 143.5
122.4
111.3
118.6
117.9
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
131.4
125.7
127.3
125.6
119.8
107.7
127.9
110.6
145.0
+
(70)
(84)
4 173.2
4 113.5
+ 129.0
4 133.3
4
4
4
4
Pulp, paper, end allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and plastic products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
(91)
161.0
113.1
128.4
133.0
Nonferrous met&ls
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products . ,
Manmadfj fiber textile products
Apparol , . , . . . ,
4
(96)
o
o
134-0
(86)
177.8 4
115.2 4
130.0 o
135.9 4
178.8
115.9
130.0
136.0
4
+
4
o
137.9
127.8
130.9
127.4
4
126.9
4
4
128.7
127.2
4 135.9
4 127.1
4 129.1
4 127.4
124.4
112.3
119.1
119.5
o
4
4
124.4
112.7
118.9
120.2
o
o
4
4
124.4
112.7
119.0
120.9
+
o
o
+
124.7
112.7
119.0
121.0
4
4
4
4
145.0
137.4
127.5
121.5
118.4
4
4
4
4
4
151.8
Hi. 3
131.3
122.9
118.8
- 146.5
4 144.6
4 132.1
4 123.1
o
118.8
4+
4
+
4
166.2
4
4
4
4
-
120.7
109.3
133.9
111.5
142.2
4
4
4
4
-
122.0
110.4
146. 6
112.6
140.9
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
123.3
111.0
H5. 9
113.1
143. 0
122.3
110.8
H6.1
112.9
141.4
H7.3
134,9
123.7
119,3
NOTE: To facilitate intepretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (4) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (») = falling, NA" not available,
p - preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
2
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
3
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
102
SEPTEMBER 1973
IIUI
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
B
JM CONSUMER PRICES
INDUSTRIAL P R O D U C T I O N
781. United
States,
index of
consumer
prices®
133. Canada,
index of
consumer
prices ®
132. United
Kingdom,
index of
consumer
prices®
135. West
Germany,
index of
consumer
prices®
136, France,
index of
consumer
prices®
138. Japan,
index of
consumer
prices®
137. Italy,
index of
consumer
prices®
47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production
12.3. Canada,
index of
'ndustrial
production
122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
{1967=100}
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
1971
January
February
March
119
119
120
113
113
114
123
124
125
111
112
113
120
121
121
125
125
125
112
113
113
105
106
106
117
118
119
113
110
109
127
129
131
April
May
June
120
121
122
115
115
115
128
128
129
114
114
115
122
123
123
127
127
127
113
114
ru
106
107
107
119
120
121
111
111
112
128
127
130
July
August
September
122
122
122
116
117
117
130
130
130
115
115
116
124
124
125
127
126
131
114
115
115
107
106
107
121
124
125
111
111
112
132
132
136
October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
122
123
123
117
117
118
131
132
132
116
117
117
126
126
127
131
129
129
116
117
117
107
107
108
125
125
125
111
111
110
135
136
135
123
124
124
118
119
119
133
134
134
118
119
119
127
128
128
130
130
131
117
118
118
109
110
112
127
126
127
110
101
112
138
137
139
April
May
June
124
125
125
120
120
120
136
136
137
120
120
121
129
130
130
132
133
133
119
120
120
113
114
114
130
128
129
114
116
115
138
141
140
July
Auoust
September
126
126
126
122
122
123
138
139
139
122
122
123
131
132
133
133
134
135
121
122
123
115
116
118
128
127
131
116
116
118
143
143
143
October
November
December
1973
January
February
March
127
127
127
123
123
124
141
142
143
124
124
125
134
135
136
136
135
137
124
125
126
119
120
121
134
135
137
119
121
122
143
147
148
128
129
130
125
126
126
144
144
145
126
127
128
136
136
137
138
140
143
127
128
130
122
123
124
137
140
14Q
122
123
125
152
152
153
131
132
132
128
129
130
148
149
150
129
129
130
138
139
14-0
145
148
148
131
133
134
124
125
r!26
r!41
P145
(NA)
125
125
p!25
149
155
p!53
133
135
131
151
(NA)
CM)
ia
r!50
151
(NA)
126
p!26
(NA)
(»)
Oa)
Year
and
month
April
May
June
July
August
September
. .
.
...
(NA)
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are'shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.
SEPTEMBER 1973
103
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
B
Qj INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION-Con.
1 STOCK PRICES
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
•production
121.0ECD, 1
European
countries,
index of
industrial
production
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
19. United
States,
index of
stock
prices, 500
common
stocks©
143. Canada,
index of
stock
prices @
142. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices @
146. France,
index of
stock
prices©
145. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices©
148. Japan,
index of
stock
prices®
147. Italy,
indox of
stock
prices©
(1967-100)
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
{1967=100}
1971
January
February
March
138
139
138
rl'56
r!55
r!56
126
126
126
117
117
116
102
106
108
108
108
109
123
122
120
136
139
137
125
134
137
145
151
161
91
94
93
April
May
June
140
138
138
rl56
r!52
r!55
127
126
127
113
113
114
112
111
108
112
108
109
131
146
147
137
141
140
135
138
137
171
172
182
89
85
83
July
August
September
139
134
138
r!56
r!56
r!58
128
125
129
112
104
117
108
106
108
109
107
108
157
158
164
1U
135
128
135
136
129
190
179
170
83
82
78
October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
138
137
129
r!56
r!58
r!57
129
129
127
116
117
119
106
101
108
110
98
107
160
156
165
118
124
124
124
124
133
166
168
178
78
75
77
140
137
140
r!58
rl60
rl63
131
128
132
119
117
115
112
114
117
117
119
121
175
180
186
128
130
140
137
146
152
195
204
215
78
76
74
April
May
June . . . ,
142
142
139
r!62
rl64
rl65
132
134
133
114
117
117
118
117
118
121
123
127
191
194
184
147
155
147
157
161
159
230
241
257
79
SO
78
July
August . . „
September
141
138
144
r!65
r!69
r!71
133
133
135
114
112
115
117
121
119
126
134
133
187
195
185
156
162
163
159
165
160
273
290
300
80
80
79
October . ,
November
December
1973
January
February
March . ,
144
146
149
r!73
r!76
r!80
r!38
139
141
124
122
123
119
125
128
133
134
141
180
186
191
164
153
149
155
156
155
309
327
354
81
86
86
151
155
151
r!86
r!86
r!93
142
144
143
118
129
124
122
146
145
143
182
168
164
174
173
185
167
165
173
387
364
363
83
84
93
April
May
June
155
r!51
P153
r!91
r!96
p!96
144
r!46
146
P
120
117
114
142
135
135
168
167
171
191
196
190
174
161
157
344
339
338
97
p!04
PU7
July
August
September . .
(NA)
(M)
(MA)
115
113
pl!3
141
rp!42
P142
161
156
P153
p!83
rp!74
pl65
146
rp!45
p!42
355
351
P336
pllO
rp9S
p!03
Year
and
month
'October
November
December
„
(NA)
.
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of those series are shown on pages 67 and 68.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
104
SEPTEMBER 1973
APPENDIXES
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Cl
'
C
I/C
QCD
I/C
for
npn
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
QCD
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
200.
205.
210.
215.
217.
• 220
222.
224.
225
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars ...
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GIMP in current dollars .
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
National income, current dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income constant dollars
226
227.
230.
231.
232
233.
Per capita disposable personal income current dollars
Per capita disposable personal income, constant dollars . .
Total personal consumption expenditures, current dollars . . .
Total personal consumption expenditures, constant dollars . .
Personal consumption expenditures durable goods
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, except
automobiles . .
234 Personal consumption expend automobiles
236. Personal consumption expend., nondurable goods
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services .
IQ '53-IIQ72
IQ'53-IIQ '72
1Q'53-IIQ'72
1 Q '53-1 IQ '172
IQ'53-IIQ '72
IQ'53-IIQ'p
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-110'72
IQ '53-1 10 72
1.64
1.20
IQ'53-IIQ ' t 2 . . . . .
IQ'53-IIQ')2
IQ'53-IIQ (>2
f Q '53-1 Id 72
IQ'53-IIQ72
1.22
1.51
1.05
3.14
IQ '53-11072
IQ '53-11072
IQ'53-IIQ72
10 '53-11072.....
2.13
6.44
1.27
1.78
.65
1.39
1.03
1.69
1.56
1.51
1.07
.83
240.
241 .
242
243.
244.
247
248.
249
252.
253
Gross private domestic investment, total
Total nonresidential fixed investment
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures
Fixed investment, producers' durable equipment
Fixed investment, residential structures
..
Fixed investment nonresidential 1958 dollars
Fixed investment in residential structures, 1958 dollars
Gross auto product 1958 dollars
Exports of goods and services . . . .
.,
Imports of goods and services
4.51
IQ'53-IIQ72
2.63
IQ'53-IIQ72
10 '53-110 7 2 . . . . . 2.64
3.18
IQ'53-IIQ 72
3.81
IQ'53-IIQ 72
2.26
IQ'53-IIQ 72
3.70
IQ'53-HQ"/2
10.61
IQ'53-IIQ ' / 2
3.80
IQ'53-IIQ '72
3.30
IQ'53-IIQ '72
260.
261.
262.
264.
Govt. purchases of goods and services, total
Total Govt. purchases of goods and services, 1958 dollars ...
Federal Govt purchases of goods and services
Federal Government purchases of goods and services for
national defense
State and local govt. purchases, goods and services
Final sales durable goods
Final sales, 1958 dollars
Final sales nondurable goods
IQ'53-IIQ 'i2
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ '72
266.
270
273.
274
280
282
284
286.
288
290
292
294.
Compensation of employees
. .
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adjustment
Net interest
Gross saving private and government
Personal saving
Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation
adjustment
.
....
296 Capital consumption allowances
0.32
.34
.11
.32
.34
.36
.22
.26
.30
.28
.29
.34
.37
1.62
.83
4.21
.44
.20
1.99
.89
1.40
1.28
1.08
.95
1.05
7.70
2.53
1.98
1.58
1.05
.65
1.31
.87
1.59
1.54
1.48
1.00
1.17
.73
1.47
.98
2.36
1.92
4.02
1.21
1.75
3.33
2.35
2.13
2.62
3.51
1.92
3.36
5.58
2.52
2.46
1.35
1.31
1.43
1.35
1.31
1.45
1.26
1.40
1.35
11.00
1.40
1.45
1.26
1.26
1.20
11.00
8.56
5.13
5.13
2.85
7.70
3.67
38.50
77.00
4.81
2.81
7.00
77.00
1.26
1.26
1.26
1.31
77.00
.60
.38
.66
.49
.31
.49
.31
.61
.43
.80
2.48
4.05
2.85
2.96
3.35
2.85
3.08
1.71
2.57
2.75
1.40
1.37
1.28
1.24
1.33
1.37
1.33
1.24
1.28
1.28
4.81
5.13
5.13
4.05
6.42
4.53
4.81
2.85
5.92
7.00
2.48
4.05
2.85
2.96
3.35
2.85
3.08
2.62
4.00
2.75
5.92
3.35
3.35
1.31
1.31
1.22
15.40
5.92
3.35
3.35
3.08
1.24
1.24
1.31
1.26
1.22
.32
.17
.25
.39
.22
.14
.18
.30
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
.24
.40
.23
.38
.68
1
1
1
1
1
.24
.40
.23
.38
.68
.43
1
2
1
1
.43
.44
.37
.12
.80
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
0.21
1.05
.37
.12
.60
.38
.66
.49
.31
.49
.31
1.38
1.00
0.21
.32
.17
.25
.39
.22
.14
.18
.30
8.56
3.67
19.25
7.00
4.53
7.00
15.40
15.40
5.92
7.00
5.13
11.00
5.13
2.85
4.81
2.20
7.00
1.94
1.48
2.17
.53
.61
.89
1.82
1.27
1.90
.29
.48
.47
1
1
1
.29
.48
.47
IQ'53-IIQ 7 2 . . . . .
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
2.23
2.38
2.31
1.02
1.31
.80
.40
1.95
2.37
1.89
.41
.17
.56
.39
.39
1
1
1
1
1
.41
.17
.56
.39
.39
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
1.71
1.26
1.11
4.28
3.73
4.49
8.43
.16
.61
.42
.70
.23
.64
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
.16 11.00
2.48
.61
7.70
.42
.70
2.96
.23 25.67
2.66
.64
1.75
.45
1.35
1.35
1.33
1.22
1.28
1.26
1.28
IQ'53-IIQ 7^
IQ'53-IIQ 72
9.98
1.93
6.08
IQ'53-IIQ 7fc
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-11072
IQ'53-IIQ 7 2 . . . . .
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 7?
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 7 2 . . . . .
8.21
4.97
4.94
3.88
3.70
1.54
2.80
4.23
2.83
2.91
2.09
2.11
ia'57-11072.....
IQ'57-IIQ72,....
IQ '57-11072
10 '59-11 073
IIQ '57-11072 ....
2.76
2.22
1.44
7.93
2.88
...
1.07
.37
.49
.26
.62
.42
2.22
.83
2.17
6.28
.36
.93
1.24
1.67
1.03
.98
3.18
3.69
3.41
5.05
1.24
25.67
3.08
3.08
7.00
7.06
1.87
.86
.19
1
1
.86
.19
25.67
1,33
1.31
6.24
3.74
3.74
2.99
2.85
1.50
2.51
.68
.76
.78
.70
.74
.22
.40
.40
.48
.19
.82
.21
.32
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2.85
.68
.76
2.85
.78
2.75
.70
2.57
.74
2.57
.22 15.40
.40
3.67
3.67
.40
3.85
.48
3.85
.19
2.26
.82
8.56
.21
3.67
.32
1.24
1.22
1.22
1.26
1.26
1.22
1.20
1.35
1.28
1.28
1.24
1.35
1.31
.47
.44
.17
1
1
1
2
1
.47
.44
.17
.55
.75
1.22
1.45
1.30
2.14
7.00
38.50
11.00
7.00
12.83
15.40
77.00
11.00
8.56
3.67
19.25
7.00
4.53
7.00
15.40
15.40
5.92
8.56
7.00
5.13
77.00
11.00
5.13
4.53
4.61
3.08
25.67
25.67
7.00
11.00
19.25
3.08
3.08
7.00
11.00
11.00
4.81
6.42
4.28
2.48
7.70
2.96
25.67
25.67
6.42
4.28
2.66
2.53
2.75
2.14
25.67
25.67
3.35
4.28
4.81
5.50
4.81
2.85
2.85
2.75
2.57
2.57
15.40
15.40
5.92
7.00
5.92
6.42
3.50
7.00
3.67
3.67
3.85
3.85
2.26
8.56
3.67
5.55
7.62
8.71
3,79
4.36
3.21
4.36
6.78
2.48
2.18
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
11
*16
18
34
35
57
*61
63
68
97
110
*200
*205
New capital appropriations manufacturing
Corporate profits after taxes
Corporate profits after taxes 1958 dollars . .
Net cash flow corporate
Net cash flow corporate 1958 dollars
Final sales
.
Business expend new plant and equipment
Unit labor cost total private economy
Labor cost per unit of gross prod nonfin corp
Backlog of capital appropriations manufacturing
Total private borrowing
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
.82
.89
4.83
9.55
1.64
1.20
.33
1.00
.29
.37
.87
5.63
.32
.34
.73
.77
4.65
6.84
1.58
1.05
11.00
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
61 a
410
412
430s
435.
Business expend new plant and equipment
Manufacturers' sales total value
Manufacturers' inventories total book value
New car purchases by households . .
Index of consumer sentiment
See definitions of measures at end of part 1.
1.13
.79
.24
5.54
1.51
2.39
1.80
1.40
4.33
2.00
1.28
.75
3.21
4.36
6.78
1.83
2.18
"1.29
1.20
105
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Ci
1
C
I/C
QCD
I/C
for
QCO
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
1
C
QCD
0. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
21 1 . Fixed weighted price index, qross private product
252. Exports of goods and services
253. Imports of goods and services
264. National defense purchases . . .
530. Liquid liabilities to all foreigners ©
632. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign official
agencies ©. . , , ...,.,
534.
§36.
537,
540.
US official resesrve assets©
Merchandise exports, adjusted
Merchandise imports, adjusted
Investment income, military sales, and other services,
IQ'65-IIQ'72!
IQ'60-IIQ'7?
IQ'60-IIQ'72*
IQ'53-IIQ'7?
IQ'60-IIQ'72 ....
0.91
3.68
3.51
2.23
3.31
1.12
0.89
2.20
2.72
1.95
2.74
IQ'60-IVQ'71 . . . .
5.98
2.66
4.83
0.10
2.67
2.18
.80
4.81
4.45
2.88
3,62
8.47
f
3, 08
6.12
2.51
.88
1
.88
2.04
1.26
8.17
2.04
1.22
2.16
.56
1
.56
2.72
1.20
6.12
2.72
5.26
5.05
3.28
3.93
3.60
2.21
1.57
2.35
2.33
1.69
4.08
3.50
2.33
1.53
1.88
3,43
4.08
3.50
2.33
3.44
.43
.48
.59
.82
.63
.43
3. '50
13.97
2
1
1
1
2
2
1.17
1.22
18.56
3.28
4.63
2.64
2.85
9.13
2.18
3.06
3.51
2.53
2.17
1.24
2.34
2.65
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
.45
2.23
.51
2.13
.41
3.67
4.05
.47
.16 77.00
.36
8.56
.50
3.67
3.35
.54
1.26
1.32
1.28
1.18
1.40
1.38
1.26
2
.48
2.21
2.58
IQ'BO-IIQ'7?
10 '60-1 10 7?
IQ'53-IIQ7i'
10 '53-1 10 7?
10 '53-1 10 7?
IQ '53-11072
10 '53-1 10 72
IQ '53-1 107?
3.69
S.72
.84
3.50
Receipts from transportation and other services
Payments for transportation and other services
. .
Fed receipts ruitl income and product accts
Fed. expend., null, income and product accts
Avg hourly compensation private nonfarm economy
Real avg. hourly comp., private nonfarm economy . . ,
Output per mon-hour, total private economy
Output per rnan-hour, total private nonfarm
1.15
12.2,')
2.94
3.20
3.06
IQ '60-1107?
548.
549,
601.
602.
745.
746.
770.
858.
2.47
29.00
7.00
, >.a2
3.7'*
3.31
Id '60-11072
10 '60-110 72
10 WHO 72
10 '60-1 10 7?
IQ '60-110 72
IQ '60-11072
.55
29.00
1.27
1.29
1.29
2.21
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Income on foreign investments in U S
Receipts from foreign travelers in U S
Payments by U S travelers abroad
Military sales to foreigners . .
U.S. military expenditures abroad ®
1.38
1.22
1.29
1.24
1.32
2.94
1.75
3.06
1.31
3.93
2.78
542.
543.
544.
545.
546.
547.
1
2.45
2.72
3.08
2.88
.59
.68
.84
2.61
5.06
4.62
10 '60-110 7?
.55
29.00
.51
.80
.41
.41
0.12
1
2
1
IQ'BO-IVQ'71 . . . .
IQ '60-1107;!
IQ'BO-IIQ'72
541. Foreign investment income, military expenditures, and other
services, imports
.80
.41
.41
1
2
1
1
1
0.12
1.21
...
...
.67
.86-
.87
.94
.90
.20
.23
.38
.38
2. 40
2.12
2.16
2.32
1.93
1.22
.65
.76
.71
.59
1.63
1.10
.48
.59
.82
1.53
1.07
1.10
1.23
.41
.47
.16
.36
.50
.54
1 . S3
1.20
1.26
1.22
6.12
4.90
4.45
2.33
3.77
55.44
3.77
5.30
7.00
a. is
2.82
4.36
2.82
3.67
4.05
77.00
15.40
77.00
a. 56
8.56
3.67
1.26
7.00
3.3<J
1.28
3.50
3.17
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income
IQ'53-IIQ7:>
8.02
"Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
6.23
4.80
1.30
1.60
©Measures are "based on unadjusted data.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear In Electronic Computers and Business Indicators,
by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted
from Journal of Business, October 1957).
"CI* is the average quarter-to-quarter percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
or, if the series contains no measurable seasonal, in the
unadjusted series.
"G" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the sams for the irregular component, obtained
by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"QCD" (quarters for cyclical dominance) provides an
estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a quarterly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
QCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-quarter
spans (1st quartered quarter, 2d quarter-Sd quarter, etc.),
2-quarter spans (1st quartered quarter, 2d quarter-4th
quarter, etc.), up to 4-quarter spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span. QCD is the shortest span in quarters for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
106
and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally, adjusted series became dominated
by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with
a QCD greater than "3" are shown as "4".
"T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted
series. It is shown for 1-quarter spans and for spans of
the period of QCD. When QCD is "4", no I/C ratio is shown for
the QCD period.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
quarterly changes in the same direction in any series of
observations. When there is no change between 2 quarters, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and
the QCD curve. The QCD curve is an unweighted moving
average (with the number of terms equal to QCD) of the
seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1quarter intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-quarter
intervals in a moving average (QCD) of a random series, the
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of CI is
1.60 for the series on the ratio of personal saving to disposable
personal income (series 854). This indicates that 1-quarter
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART I—Continued
changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average,
(2 quarters being the QCD span) reverses direction, on the
reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series.
average, about every 3 quarter-s. The increase in the ADR
The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.28 for I
from 1.60 for CI to 3.17 for the QCD moving average indicates
anclS.SG for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has that, for this series, quarter-to-quarter changes in the QCD
been successfully separated into an essentially random commoving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend
ponent and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is
movements of the series, whereas the quarter-to-quarter
changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
3.17 for the QCD moving average. This indicates that a
2-quarter moving average of the seasonally adjusted series
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Quarterly Series: Average Actual Changes
Unit of
measure
Period
covered
Quarterly series
1
CI
C
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I/C
for
QCD
span
CI
.71
2 0.54
2
.51
1 .84
2
.60
4
C1)
1 .71
1.64
1.71
2.33
1.60
1.40
2.75
1.31
1.31
1.28
1.37
1.26
1.33
3.21
2.96
4.05
2.75
2.41
3.85
.83
1
.83
2.57
1.33
3.21
2.57
2
1
.37
.58
2.75
2.48
1.24
1.40
6.42
3.85
4.75
2.48
2
.54
1.64
1.31
3.21
2.53
1
2
2
2
1
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
.97
.43
.45
.77
.83
.57
C1)
.82
.61
.56
.65
.56
2.04
1.88
2.04
1.75
2.04
1.88
1.48
1.48
1.81
1.48
1.53
1.53
1.22
1.22
1.44
1.36
1.40
1.36
1.20
1.40
1.29
1.09
1.22
1.22
3.50
4.08
4.08
2.58
2.88
2.45
1.96
2.45
2.58
2.72
2.45
2,72
2.04
2.67
2.67
2.18
2.04
2.18
2.09
2.18
2.18
2.18
2.67
2.00
1
1
2
.79 2.33
.95 1.55
.71 1.42
1.26
1.13
1.13
4.28
2.43
2.12
2.33
1.55
2.00
1
1
1
.50
.53
.97
1.31
1.31
1.30
5.50
3.85
2.83
3.08
3.35
2.03
7/c
QCD
1
C
QCD
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
245, Change in business inventories, total . .
IQ '53-1 Id '72 ..
246 Change in business inventories, 1958 dollars
250, Net exports of goods and services
271 . Change in business inventories, durable goods
275. Change in bus inventories, nondurable goods
298 Government surplus or deficit total
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ '53-1 Id '72
10 '53-1 10 72
..
..
..
..
..
Ann. rate,
. bil dol
... do . . . .
...do
...do
...do
...do
2.65
2.57
.92
2.41
1.64
3.01
1.85
1.77
.56
1.59
1.44
1.81
1.54
1.55
.67
1.32
.62
2.54
1.20
1.14
.84
1.20
2.30
2.53
2.53
2.33
2.53
2.85
2.75
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
15 Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales mfg
22. Ratio of profits to income originating in corporate
business
*67 Sank rates on short-term bus loans @
245. Change in business inventories, total
10 '53-1 10 72 ..
Cents
IQ '53-1 10 72 . . i Percent
do
IQ'53-I1Q72
IQ '53-1 Id 72 .. Ann. rate,
bil. dol
.22
.45
.18
2.65
.13
.15
.32
.09
.32
.16
1.85
1.54
1.00
.58
1.20
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
250
515
517.
519
521.
522
560.
561
564
565
570
575.
600
Balance on goods and services
Balance on goods services, and remittances
Balance on current account
Balance on curr acct and long term capital
Net liquidity balance
Official reserve transactions balance
Foreign direct investments in the U.S
US direct investments abroad
Foreign purchases of U S. securities
U S purchases of foreign securities
Govt grants and capital transactions, net
Banking and other capital transactions, net
Fed balance natl income and product accts
259.04 169.62 174.84
253.80 172.57 168.31
. . . do
263.92 183.28 167.97
.. ... do.
642.75 462.57 311.70
.. ...do
749.49 408.84 491.05
.. . . . d o
L,071.73 660.39 613.98
do
118.04 102.80 44.66
.. ... do
227.24 176.99 101.60
.. . . . d o
.. . . . d o
193 . 63 128.88 114.02
.. . . . d o
159.06 142.41 88.90
.. . . . d o
281.67 220.78 130.55
.. . . . d o
387.41 338.00 202.27
.. Ann. rate,
2.38
1.89
3.07
bil. dol
1.41
1.34
1.9410 '68-110 72 . . Ann. rate, pet.
.79
1.45
1.22
IQ '68-11072 .. ... do
IQ '60-1 1072
IQ'BO-IIQ'72
10 '60-110 72
IQ'60-11072
IQ '60-11072
IQ '60-110 72
ID '60-11072
10 '60-110 72
10 '60-110 72
10 '60-110 72
10 '60-110 72
IQ'60-110'72
10 '53-110 72
748. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, first year
749. Negotiated wageand benefit decisions, life of contract .
..
Mil. dol
.97
1.03
1.09
1.48
.83
1.08
2.30
1.74
1.13
1.60
1.69
1.67
.79
.95
1.54
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
207 GNP gap (potential less actual)
850 Ratio output to capacity, manufacturing
857 Vacancy rate in total rental housing fii)
IQ '53-110 72 .,
10 '53-110 72 .,
10 '56-1 10 72 .
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list'
when QCD is "4."
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
Percent
...do
of 26 indicators,
4.57
1.58
.24
1.87
.67
.15
3.77
1.27
.16
.50
.53
.97
3.08
3.35
2.03
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
1
Not shown
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This
method is used for series with zero or negative data and for
other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
expressed in percent.
Thus, "CI" is the average quarter-to-quarter change in the
seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without
regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure
as the series itself.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"Iw is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part 1.
107
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appejndix provides historical data (back to 1945 if available) for
selected BCD series. Data are shown for series which (a) have recently
been added to the report, (b) have recently been revised, or (c) have not
been shown here for a long time. By keeping these tables, the user can
acquire a complete set of historical data. Each time a series is included
in this appendix, it is footnoted to indicate the extent of any revisions
since it was last shown. See the "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding
Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published for
each series. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables each
month and may be used to update these historical tables.
Series shown here are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated
by ©, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. Official source
agency annual figures are shown if available. Such figures are often
derived from data with more digits or from data which have not been
seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual
figures computed from the monthly or quarterly data shown.
Monthly
Quarterly
Year
Feb.
Jan.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Annual
Oct.
29. INDEX OF NEW PRIVATE HOUSING UNITS AUTHORIZED BY LOCAL BUILDING PERMITS
(1967-100)
Dec.
Nov.
I Q
11 Q
III Q
IVQ
I
AVERAGE FOR PLKIOU
1946.
1947,
1948.
1949.
1950.
91.4
66.6
flO.l 85.8
109.4
100.4
B1.9
60.4
157.4
159.2
114.7
83.9
104.0
86. 8
159.1
82.7
77.5
116.5
96.6
161,9
82.3
WO. 5
106.7
104.2
161.3
79.6
91.6
103.1
106.4
160.7
77.6
96.6
102.2
110.2
182.8
77,7
108.1
94.8
112.3
158.2
78,3
111.2
64.8
136,2
133,7
74.3
118.?
89.4
135.6
126.2
77.0
117.9
86.?.
141.9
123.6
72.9
117.4
82.8
146.6
158.6
97.6
83.3
104,6
83.0
158.6
81.5
83.2
108.8
102.4
161.3
77,9
105, J
93,9
119,0
156.2
74.7
117,7
66,1
141.4
136.1
82.9
V? . 4
Vt*.4
111.6
1S3.6
1951.
19??.
1 953 .
19*4.
19^5.
19S6. '
116.3
9V. 6
104.9
101.9
116.4
109.8
114.0
lib. 3
110.7
100.4
151.0
106.8
104, a
105.5
111.6
10S.8
129.3
109.8
96.9
103.5
106.2
106.9
132.9
109.4
99.3
101.2
106.4
108.3
133.6
101.9
96.9
101,6
103.5
116,9
126.2
100,1
92.9
107.9
99,9
UV.9
126.7
99.4
94.3
107.6
9b.4
93.2
116,8
99.6
126,2
117. b
93.?
90.9
117,2
100,1
135,8
107,5
93,7
94.1
108.3
102.4
132.0
107.0
92.8
121,9
106.6
109.1
102.7
138.9
108.8
97.7
102.1
105.4
110,9
130, *
103. H
103.3
110.3
97.6
120,2
123,1
97.0
92.7
114.1
100,7
131,3
110, H
93,2
103, V
108.3
103.2
lib. 3
122.2
97.0
122,2
115.5
94,6
121. V
120.4
94.5
1957.
19SI1.
1959,
19*0.
1961.
196?,.
«6.S
91.5
134.7
102.7
91.2
105.5
90.8
78.7
119.6
102.3
90.4
112.3
91.7
B7.2
125.0
89,8
94.0
106.7
86.7
92.0
119.4
95.6
94,?
116.2
90. *>
96.2
117.4
98.9
96.6
107."
9?. 5
10?. ft
U*».S
90.1
92.0
111.7
113.7
93.4
106,9
112.8
92,4
114.5
10*. 4
92.6
103,2
115,0
91.1
118.1
105.3
8e.5
105.6
111 i 1
134.1.
100,7
92.0
108.3
lib. 2
89.3
115.6
108.2
d9,4
109.2
116.3
89.7
B5.B
119.6
98,3
91.9
10B.2
89,9
96,9
117,4
94.9
97.2
110.7
90,2
112.7
111.9
93.3
104.7
113,2
69.^
122.7
10**. 7
90.^
107,7
lOfc.5
86.2
111.9
112.5
93.9
101.9
111.9
114,6
69.6
104,5
113.**
94.3
100.4
111.7
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
113.0
117.4
114.4
1?,0.0
R7.2
103.3
109.7
130.6
107.3
104.9
79.5
117.6
113. a
118.8
109.6
111.6
83.7
1PO.O
116.6
114.4
105.1
103.7
90.7
112.7
122.2
117. ft
109.3
97.6
94.3
113.7
1*1.9
11C.S
11?. 4
66.6
102.5
113.9
119.6
118.1
112.0
84,4
103.2
117.8
118.6
118.2
113.1
79,4
107.7
118.9
128.0
114.5
111.1
70,1
112,1
128.3
128.1
111.4
115.7
66, Q
112,2
124.5
122.9
113.5
11«,2
66,6
113.7
125, P
128.8
105.3
119.0
67,2
US. 2
121.8
112.2
122.3
110.4
112.2
63.5
113.0
120.2
115. V
108.9
96.0
V5.b
113,"
122.1
116.9
112.1
78,0
107,7
121.7
126, b
110.1
117.6
66. V
113,7
124,0
120,3
110,3
112,3
66.3
100.2
116,2
1969.
1970.
1971.
197?.
1973.
127.9
93.1
1«4.0
131.0
98.0
139.2
126. ft
99.?
154.2
126.?
107.3
153.0
116.**
116. u
17?,. 9
11". 2
11*.. 6
16^.8
112.0
116.1
181.3
115. 4
122.2
175.6
110.7
125,0
174,9
106.6
137.1
177.5
10^.4
131,7
182.2
101.3
154.9
186,9
128.3
96.3
145. 8
120,3
113.2
164,2
112.7
121,1
177. J
104,1
141.2
182,?,
116,3
118,1
167.4
2.40
2.02
2.6?
2.0V
iur.7
li«.9
91. '4
39. PERCENT OF CONSUMER INSTALLMENT LOAWS DELINQUENT 30 D£YS AND OVER 2
(PERCENT)
12b.v
100.7
tND OF PERIOD
*, t
1947. . .
1946.
19*»9.
1950.
P. 31
2fl2i>
Z .70
2.11
2.81
2.73
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
2*20
2.03
KS7
2.05
KM
1.52
V957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
196?.
1963.
1964.
196f>.
1966.
1967.
1968.
2.49
2. 85
2.38
2.34
2.70
2.45
2.08
1.91
1.83
?,,07
1.62
1.46
a. 10
2.05
.90
.98
.53
,53
1,50
1.57
1.36
1.71
1.81
1.69
1.50
1.63
1,55
1.60
1.84
1.69
1.59
1.69
,.
,,
,t
*•
1969.
1970.
1971.
197?.
1973...
tt
.
,.
t
2.40
2,02
2.67
2,09
2[49
2.3b
2,29
2.91
2.2?,
2,20
2,6V
2,30
2,40
2,02
2,67
2,0V
2.09
1.99
1.97
1.81
1.47
1.54
2. Ob
1.99
1.97
1.84
1.47
1.4fe
2.23
1.65
2.U2
1.79
1.44
1.49
2.15
1.92
1.98
1.65
1,50
1,52
2,10
2.05
l.VO
l.Vtt
1.&3
1.53
2.06
2,2b
1,62
1.91
1.50
1.51
2,09
1,99
1,97
l.»l
1,47
1,54
2»1S
1,9£
1.9»
1.6*
1,50
1,52
2. It)
1.92
1.98
1.65
1.50
1,52
1.48
1.75
1.52
1.70
1.80
1.61
1.54
1.63
1.56
1.71
1,76
1.63
1.51
1.60
1.67
1.79
1.70
1.61
.55
.60
.75
.78
.b7
,63
1.57
1.55
1.65
1.76
1.66
1.64
1.57
1.76
1.62
1.81
I.h9
.52
.75
.43
.68
.79
,6b
1.S4
1.6J
1.56
1,71
1,76
1,63
1,57
1.55
1.65
1.76
1.6K
1.64
1.57
l.Sb
1.65
1.70
1.66
1.64
1.67
1.71
l.*3
1.76
1.65
1,56
1,73
1.65
1,65
1.7]
1,83
1.7*
1,08
1.50
1,79
1.76
1.70
1.65
1,75
1.71
1.62
1.64
l.*»6
1.77
1,73
1.H2
l.t>4
,66
,63
.74
.76
,72
,57
1.73
1.63
1.63
1.76
1.65
1.56
1.76
1,70
1,65
l.7b
1.71
1,62
1,76
1,70
1,69
1.75
1.71
1.62
1.76
1.37
1.55
1.60
i.t»l
,6b
.82
1.81
1,70
1.66
1,75
1,76
1.87
1,63
1.76
1,87
1.68
2.21,
2.80
2.43
2.17
2.91
2.17
2.22
2.55
2.26
2.20
2.69
2.30
2.31
1 ,98
1.75
1.99
1.55
1.54
2,09
2,08
1.86
1,9«
1.55
1.49
2.06
2.25
1.82
1.91
1.50
1.51
2.17
2.19
1.83
1.66
1.49
1.51
2.11
2.14
2.01
1,83
1,44
1.53
.57
.76
.52
.60
.81
.69
1,47
1.70
1.50
1.6«
1.85
1.67
1,46
1.74
1.49
1.64
1.83
1.64
.52
.75
.43
.68
.79
.65
1.50
1.71
1,36
1,73
1.83
1,61
1.60
1.68
1.77
1.73
1.82
1.54
.64
.66
,
.
,
•
1.59
1.59
1.71
1.78
1.90
1.56
1.57
1.66
,
,
,
•
1.68
1.63
1.74
1.76
1,72
1.57
l.*8
1.63
,
1.55
1,00
1.81
t
1,61
1.80
1.72
'This .aorlos
Thls sorIBS
B
108
2,23
2.70
2.23
2.40
2,37
2.69
1.97
2.29
2.91
2.22
.
,
bORinnlng with 1946.
f
.
,
t
t
.
1.65
t
1.81
t
t t
1.62
1.70
1.88
1.75
t
,
.
t
,
t
1.72
1.8fi
1.94
t
t
t
.
t
(
,
t
1,68
2,b5
i.to
I;P T U M O U R
1073)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
Year
Annual
1 Q
IIQ
lit Q
63. UNIT LABOR COST, TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY 1
t INHEX1 1967=100}
1945
1946
1947
...
...
69.9
Annual
1 Q
IV Q
AVERAGE
IIQ
III Q
IV Q
63-C. CHANGE FROM PRECEEDING1 °ERIOU IN UNIT LABOK COST,
TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY tANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
*« •* i.
PERCtNT CHANGE2
...
•* *
70.6
74.6
71.6
71.7
...
...
71.8
7?,0
7?, 3
7?. 5
...
...
70.6
73.7
72.5
71.7
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950.,.'..
5,4
-7.6
-7.6
-2.3
-4.8
2.7
a!6
1949
S950
72.8
73.6
70.9
...
...
70.3
72.3
72.7
71.3
13.2
-5.6
2.2
6.*9
2,2
3,6
4.5
* **
4.3
-1.6
-1,2
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
75.6
78.1
80.7
82.0
79.5
83.3
76.8
79.?
80.6
82.?
79.8
8*1.7
75.8
79,5
81.4
81.0
79.9
85.7
7*. 9
80.6
8.1.2
80.8
80.9
86.4
76.3
79.4
61.0
PI. 5
60.1
85.0
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
18,4
6.1
0.4
4.1
-6,4
12,1
6.1
5.7
-0.6
-4.9
1.9
1.4
7.2
-5.4
0.6
4.7
6.1
5,7
-1.0
-1.0
5.2
3.2
6.4
4.1
2,0
0,6
-1 .7
6,2
87.0
8Q.7
80.0
90.8
92.8
92.1
87.7
88.9
89.2
91.7
92.0
92.3
88,0
68,6
90.5
92.?.
91.6
91.6
88.8
8P.4
90.3
9?. 4
91.7
91.1
87.9
38.9
89.6
91.8
92.1
91.8
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
3.1
4.1
?-,9
2.3
2.0
1.6
3.1
-3.6
0.6
4.1
-3.5
0.7
1.4
-1.3
6.3
2.0
-1.8
-2.6
3.7
-0.9
-1.0
0.3
0.6
-2.3
3.5
1.1
1.0
2.2
0,3
-0,3
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
91.9
9?. 3
93.5
94.5
9P.1
102.5
92.2
92.6
93.9
96.0
99.3
103.5
92.1
93.3
93.7
97.3
100.?.
105.. I
9?. 3
94.5
9^.9
98.0
101.4
106.9
92.1
93.1
93.8
96.5
100.0
104,6
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
3,5
-0,1
-3.9
2.4
4.4
4.5
i.3
1.6
1.5
6.5
0,7
3,8
-0.6
2.6
-0.5
5.6
4.0
6,6
0.8
5.2
0.8
2.6
4.7
7,1
0.4
1.1
0.7
2.8
3.7
4.6
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
10R.6
117.9
121,0
110.9
118.9
U2.4
112.9
119.3
123.3
115.6
121.2
123.6
112.1
119.3
122.6
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
6.3
7.2
-0,6
3,9
3,6
4.5
7.3
1.2
2.9
10,7
6,7
1.3
7.1
6.5
2,8
205. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CONSTANT (1958) OOLLAKS1
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
AVEKAfcE
1948
1,957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
.
68. LABOR COST (CURRENT DOLLARS) PER UNIT OF GROSS PRODUCT
(1958 DOLLARS), NONFINANCIAL CORPORATIONS (HOLLARS)1
1945
1946
1947
1948
19U9
1950
...
...
...
0.501
0.514
0.507
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
0.507
0.514
0,507
...
309,6
325.8
326.1
362.8
...
314.5
328.7
323.3
370,1
355.2
312.6
309.9
323.7
324.1
3S>&.3
0.544
0,578
0,598
0.584
0.592
0.631
0.541
0.570
0.584
0.591
0.582
0.619
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955.....
1956
374.8
391.4
412.1
402,9
428,0
443,6
381.5
389.6
416.4
402.1
435.4
445,6
388,7
393.9
413.7
407,2
442.1
444,5
388.7
405.3
406.8
415.7
446.4
450.3
3tt3,4
395.1
412.8
407.0
438.0
446,1
0.644
0.658
O.t59
0.674
0.667
0.664
0.653
0.650
0.660
0.678
O.f62
O.ft62
0.642
0.659
0.654
0.670
0,670
0,665
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
453.4
437.5
466.6
490.2
462.6
519.5
453,2
439.5
479.9
489.7
492.6
527.7
455.2
450,7
475.0
487.3
501.5
533.4
448.2
461.6
480.4
483.7
511.7
536.3
4S2.5
447.3
475.9
407.7
497.2
529J8
0.661
0.665
0.660
0.681
0.720
0.662
0.670
0.659
0.688
0.714
0.739
0.664
0.664
0.660
0.676
0.707
0.727
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
541.2
571.1
601.6
649,1
666,6
692,6
546.0
578.6
610.4
655,0
671 .6
705.3
554.7
565.8
622.5
660.2
678', 9
712.3
562.1
586.5
636.6
668.1
663.6
716,5
Sbl.O
5bi.l
617,8
658,1
675.2
706,6
0.767
0.812
O.S2S
0,784
0.827
0.628
0.764
0.612
0.825
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973....,
722.4
721.2
735.1
725.8
722.1
740.4
729.2
727.2
746.9
725. 1
719.3
759.0
725.6
722.5
745.4
0.534
0.559
0.577
0.600
0.575
0.608
0.543
0.566
0.580
0.594
0.577
0.615
0.54?
0,575
0.58?
0.587
0.584
0.624
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
0.634
0.668
0.653
0.661
0.681
0.665
0.638
0.663
0.647
0.669
0.67?
O.t.68
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
0.667
0.659
0.661
0.667
0.701
0.718
0.665
0.662
0.661
0.676
0.703
0.721
1969
1970
1971
197?
1973
0.747
O.flOl
0.820
0.756
0.807
0.824
' 0.709
POTENTIAL3 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CONSTANT (1958)
DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF COLLARS)
...
...
207. GNP GAP3 (POTENTIAL LESS ACTUAL)
(ANNUAL RATE, 3ILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
AVERAGE
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
...
...
...
...
...
...
1951
195?
1953
1954
1955
1956
396!?
404.4
418.6
433.2
448. 3
394!l
407.9
422.2
436.9
452.2
397 .' 5
411.4
425. d
440.7
456. 1
400]9
41c.O
429.5
444.5
460.0
39s!e
409.7
424.0
438.8
454,2
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
195B
1959
1960
1961
196?.. . .
«64.0
480.?
497.0
514.4
532.4 '
551. n
468.0
484.3
501.3
518.8
537.0
555.8
U72.0
48P.5
50f>.6
523.3
541 .6
56C.6
"76.1
49?.7
510. 0
527.8
546.3
565,4
470.0
486.4
503.5
521.1
539.3
558,2
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
570.6
•592.0
614.?
637.6
663.1
689.6
575.9
597.5
619.9
643.9
669.6
696.4
581.2
603.0
625.6
650.?
676,?
703.3
566,6
60*. 6
631.4
656.6
662.9
710.2
578.6
600.3
622.8
647,1
673.1
699.9
I9fi9
1970
1971
197?
1973
717.2
74ft. 4
778.5
724.3
754.3
786.7
731.4
76?. 3
795.1
73ft. 6
770.4
803.5
727.9
758.4
791,0
..
...
...
...
309.0
322.9
322.5
348.5
0,498
0.516
0.505
ft
4.1
« *<
...
...
306.4
317.1
324.5
339.6
...
...
.*.
0.514
0.518
0.514
..
..
o.a
•* !
1945
1946
1947
1V48
1949
1950
...
•. •
*..
0.513
0.507
0.506
206.
AVERAGE
!!*
2!!
...
•« «
...
•* *
*..
...
,,•
...
...
...
..*
...
...
11
m,
fm
••
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
AVfcKA^E
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
-6|7
-7.7
15.7
5.2
4.7
4)5
-8.5
20.1
1.5
6,6
Ke
-2,3
18.6
-1.4
11.6
-4)4
6.2
13.8
-1,9
9.7
-3.1
17.0
0*6
6.2
10.6
42.7
2b.4
24.2
49.7
31,5
14.8
44.8
21.4
29.0
44.1
28.1
16.8
37.8
30.6
35.9
40.0
27.2
27.9
31.1
29.6
44.0
34.4
27.1
17.5
39.1
27.5
33.3
42,0
28,5
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967, ....
1968... i,.
29.4
20,9
12.6
-11.5
-3,5
-3.0
29.9
16.9
9,5
-11.1
-2.0
-8.9
26.5
17,2
3.1
-10.0
-2.7
-9.0
24. b
20.1
-b,2
-11.5
-0.7
-6.3
27,6
19.3
5.0
-11.0
-2,2
-6,b
1969
1970.....
1971
1972
1973
-5.2
25,2
43.4
-1.5
32.2
46.3
2.2
35.1
46.2
13.5
51.1
44.5
2.2
35.9
45,6
...
...
.**
<..
•. .
...
...
...
!.«
,. *
»,.
...
6!e
1973)
2
3
Year-to-year percent changes are computed from annual data
This series is shown in this appendix for the first time.
109
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Quarterly
Yaar
IIQ
10
III Q
1945.. . . .
1 Q
IV Q
?U. FIXED WEIGHTED PRICE INDEX, GROSS PRIVATE PRODUCT1
(INDEX! 1958*100)
AVERAGE
IIQ
MIQ
1945,..,,
.*
74.4
80.0
81.3
79.3
75.1
81.0
80.8
80.1
*..
76.7
8?. 5
80. 2
8P.1
78.7
82.0
80,1
03,8
76.3
£'1.4
30.6
Fil.4
1946
1947..,..
1948
1949
1950
1951
195?
1953
1954
1955
1956
86.7
80.4
89 C
90.8
91.2
93.?
87.?
88.5
89 B
90.8
91. p
93.9
87.?,
89.2
89 H
90.6
91.7
95.1
68,3
89.8
89 5
90.8
9?. 2
95.9
67.4
£.9.0
o9 6
90,8
91.6
«4.5
1931
1952
1953
1954
1935
1956
98 S
100.1
101.6
102. B
103.6
104. a
9P 8
100, §
103.3
101.1
10P.1
97 9
100,0
1C 1,4
H2.H
1C3.7
104,7
9*. 9
99.5
6.5
-3.5
-3.?
-1.0
R.4
14.3
0,4
2.5
0.7
0.0
3.2
5.2
2.3
5.9
1.4
4.2
0.0
0.3
3.3
-0.7
2.1
5,3
0.9
2,3
3.1
7,4
1 ,8
0. ?
1.3
0,9
3.2
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962.....
2.8
2.0
1,7
0,6
1.3
1.1
0.9
1.7
0.3
0,5
1.1
1.7
0.7
-0.1
0,8
1.7
0,6
2,0
2.0
1.2
I »4
1 ,4
0,9
1,0
1 2
104.5
1963
I960
1965
1966
1967
1968
10S.4
106. R
108.0
ilO.l
,113.5
117.3
105.7
106. B
108.6
111.?
114.?
118.5
10P.9
107.2
108. P
112.1
11^.2
11^.7
106,2
107.7
100,2
113.1
115.2
121.0
K5,8
K7.0
108.6
111.6
114,8
119.1
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967,....
1968
1.1
1.0
2.0
3.3
1.6
3,6
1.1
1.3
2.0
4.2
2,3
4,3
0.8
1.5
0.9
3.2
3,8
4.0
1969
1970
1971
197?
1973
122.3
128.6
134.6
123.8
130.0
136.3
125.5
131.2
137.6
127.1
13?. 9
138,1
124.7
130.7
136,6
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
4,5
4.8
5.4
4.9
4.5
5.1
5.6
3.6
3.7
10?.?
i03.6
410. MANUFACTURERS 1 SALES. TOTAL VALUE 3
(BILLIONS OF DOLL* RS)
.i .
43,5
50,1
50,9
4ft. 4
4§.4
51.6
48.1
52.9
* *»
46.7
53. fr
48. S
60. «
30.6
5?. 6
46.1
61.5
1951
195?
1953
1954
1955
1 956 .....
66 n ?
65, ,5
75 „ 4
70*4
76 „ 3
8106
65.5
65.6
76.1
69.7
79.5
83.3
64.0
66.6
75.5
69.3
80,2
81.0
6". 9
7?. 5
71.2
71.0
81.9
86.5
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
196?
88U 0
80..0
86.1
79.?
94.3
9?. 8
91.?
98.8
86.7
82.3
89.6
91."
93.3
99.3
83.9
85.7
8Q.3
90.2
97.2
100.3
106.3
113. Q
124.4
135.1
139.5
150.7
107.7
114,7
127.2
137.2
143.5
155.3
162.3
160.3
166.6
164.2
155.9
172.4
94° 6
88.5
98.8
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
101.8
100,3
1 1Q <> 1
131,4
147.4
104.4
111.1
121.6
134.0
137.7
149.7
1969
1970
1971
197?
1973
157.8
159.7
163.0
158.8
158. P
167.3
854.
I36.fi
RATIO, PERSONAL SAVING TO DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME1
(RATIO)
1945
1946
1947
194ft
1949
1950
1951
195?
1953.
1954
1955 . .
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
19ft?
.
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967 ....
1968
1969
1970
1971
197?
1973
0.117
0.106
0.062
0.050
0.060
0.088
0.0?,7
0.068
0.048
0.064
0.082
0.047
0.08U
0.049
0.032
0.077
0.038
0,079
0.043
0.068
0.047
0.078
0.067
0.073
0.065
0.086
0.073
0.059
0,060
0.07?
0.082
0.069
0.076
0,051
P. 065
0.089
0.070
0.07S
0.06?
0.055
0.070
0.067
0,068
0,062
0.053
0,052
0.071
0.066
0.063
0.047
0.056
0.069
0.07?
0.047
0.052
0.060
0 06?
0.049
0,05?
0,054
0.059
0.07 *
0.073
0.053
0.069
0.081
,
0.048
0.064
0.054
0.06?
0.070
0.076
0.053
0.083
0.085
*
0.046
0.053
0.067
0.061
0.061
0.073
0.064
0.074
0.054
0.062
0.048
110
5.4
4,7
4.8
4,6
1.5
EMI) Oh YEAH
23.6
26.2
29.4
26.4
24.7
27.0
28.3
26.8
332.4
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
33.6
40.2
43.0
43.0
41.9
46.5
36.5
40.2
44.0
42.1
42.6
48.3
38,3
40,4
44.7
41.4
43. S
49.5
344.7
327.2
362.4
365.4
373.7
397.2
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
51,7
50. 6
50.7
53.9
53.4
56.1
52.1
49.6
52.0
54,4
53.4
57.0
52.4
49.4
51.8
54.6
54.0
57.9
420.2
44.3.1
492.3
537.7
557.2
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
58.6
60.5
64.1
70.0
80.5
85.7
59.2
60,9
65.3
72.5
61,9
87,7
59.6
61.6
66.6
75.4
83.1
69.3
60.0
63.4
66,2
78,0
84,7
90.9
<&8*2
92.3
98.5
101.6
94.1
99.6
102.0
95.7
100.7
102.1
97.1
101.6
102.4
97,1
101,6
101,4
186.2
207.9
193,6
223.6
260,6
270,2
298.3
280.3
317,9
603.1
643,1
634.7
67,1.3
1969
1970
1971
1972. ..
1973
858.
AVERAGE
0.050
0.063
O.CI7*>
0.076
0.073
0.064
0.057
0.070
0.068
0.070
O.C56
0.049
0.058
0.096
0.044
0 . 070
0.066
0.067
0.080
0.068
0.086
0.075
0,081
0.081
0.060
...
i a.
2b,9
28.5
26.3
31.1
^5°9
gaas
•. *
..*
.,*
43,9
41 ,6
50,6
bO»6
51.9
50.1
52.7
53,8
54,9
$1.7
*,*
60.2
64,0
57.3
58.7
60.8
64.5
57.3
59.1
62.1
57.9
S9 5
61,4
65. 9
951
952
953
954
955
9S6
65.1
67.0
68.3
69.3
73.0
72,6
65.5
66.6
68.9
70.0
73.7
73.1
67.3
6b.6
69.2
71.0
74.1
73.2
67.4
67. b
69.1
71. b
73,5
73.7
957
958
959
960
961.....
74.4
74.7
78.8
80,8
80,2
85.1
74. &
76,2
79.6
80.2
<*2.4
85,5
7S.2
77.4
79,0
7'?. 9
83.7
86.8
78 ! 4
79.8
80,2
88,4
963.....
964
965
966
967
96b
969
970
971
972
973
selo
31 ol
39.3
41.1
43.9
41,6
INDEX OF OUTPUT PER HAN-HOUR, TOTAL PRIVATE NONF-AKff
(1967-100)
945. ...
946
947
948
949
950
0.075
0.060
_..
9 9
J.7
*
25.6
28.3
27.0
28.3
0.049
0.060
0.060
0.064
0.074
0.067
'this sorioo contains revisions beginning with 1970.
Voar-to-yoor poroont ehnoneo are eemputod from annual data,
This scries contains rovinions beginning with 1967.
•"This «o:rioi
inp with 1909.
1*1
1 ,1
1*5
i.b
1,5
3.4
3.5
4.4
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
0.054
0.066
0.065
0.072
0.077
0.062
0.061
6,7
-1.0
1,0
412. M'-NUFACTURERS* INVENTORIES, TOTAL BOOK VALUE 3
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
1945
1946
1947
1946
1949
1950
,, .
,i ,
*
10. H
6,9
7.4
-2,6
10.3
97 5
99.8
101.?
102.7
103.6
104.6
101. a
PEKCtNT CHANGE
3.8
5.3
-2.7
4.3
1959
I960
1961
196?
tOl.0
IV Q
2U-C. CHANGE FROM PRECEEDING PERIOD IN FIXED WEIGHTED pKlCt
IrtDEX, 6KOSS PRIVATE PRODUCT (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1957
Annual
Year
Annual
41 * 1
boll
tt:l
feO.O
7H.O
...
AVbKAiM:
•, .
b?:i
01.1
66.3
fee! 9
V{) , 5
V3,*2
74.3
?6.7
£><? . 7
86 , 4
88.0
91.7
93.6
98.0
98.8
101.9
68.3
93.3
94.3
98.3
99.9
102.9
89.6
93. G
95.6
98.2
100.7
103.2
90,4
9^,4
96,6
99,2
100.7
103,5
100.0
102,9
10J.1
101.9
106.1
102.9
102.9
107.0
102,7
10". 9
102.3
104,0
109,1
102. 7
103, H
107.6
loe.i
K9.1
veji'i
( U E H T U M U L H 1973)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
lid
1 Q
III Q
IIQ
III Q
IV Q
601. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS, NATIONAL INCOME AND
PRODUCT ACCOUNTS
(ANNUAL RATE, bILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
AVERAGE
AVEKAbE
io!l
15.2
3.5
13.4
T.4
-3.9
17.1
-2.4
9.1
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
-1.3
-3.7
-11.7
-1.8
6.0
6.0
6.2
-3.8
-7.0
-5,9
4.0
5.7
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
65.6
66.2
71.7
62.9
69.2
75.6
62.7
66.3
71.9
62.9
71.1
77.2
62.0
66.8
70.7
63.6
73.3
77.2
65.9
69.8
6b,6
65.7
75.0
80.1
-1.5
-9.8
-P. 6
-n.6
-1.9
-3.2
2.1
-10.2
-1.2
3.5
-3.8
-3,8
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
82.4
76.0
87.5
97.5
94,4
103.4
82.2
75.9
91.2
97.6
97.1
105.6
82.3
79.5
89.9
95.7
99.1
107.6
79,4
83,1
90.3
9b.l
102.4
109.2
76,7
09,7
96,5
98.3
106.4
-11. a
1.2
-?...7
-3.1
-1.?
-13.1
-3.9
2,1
-C,6
-1.1
-".1
-12.3
-1.1
0.7
-3.0
1.2
-0.2
-12.4
-6.5
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
112.0
115.3
123.2
136.4
147.7
164.6
113.9
112.2
124.8
141.4
148.7
169.8
115.0
lib. 4
123.4
145.3
151,9
160.0
117.2
117.2
127.4
147.0
156,5
185.6
114,5
115,0
124.7
142.5
151.2
175.0
12.0
-11.9
-23.5
6.7
-13.8
-23.2
4,3
-19.3
-24.5
8.1
-11.9
-22.2
1969
1970
1*71
1972
1973
195.6
192.8
194.8
199.7
194.8
197.7
196,5
191.2
199.4
197.5
189.3
203.5
1*7.3
1*2.0
1*6.9
Jie
-7.8
14.8
13.7
0.8
-4.8
13.6
10.6
-2.9
7.6
18.0
0.1
-4.5
-in. 5
1.3
ft. 3
fi.2
-3.8
-6.2
-6.6
4.0
5.5
1957
1958
1959...*.
i960 . ,
1961
1962
4.3
-9.1
-4.2
7.1
-4.9
-5.0
2.5
-12.4
0.8
5.6
-4.5
-4.6
1963...,.
J964
1965
1966
1967
1968
-?.4
-?..5
4.4
1.4
-11.6
-0.8
-6.3
4.7
3.0
-12.5
1969
1970
1971
1 97?
,1973
9.5
-?..6
-17.6
1951
195?
1953. . . .
1954
1955
. .
1956
Annual
IQ
IV Q
600. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SURPLUS OR DEFICIT, NATIONAL INCOME
AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS 1 (ANNUAL PATE, BILLY'S OF DOLLARS)
1945 . .
1 946
1947
t948 ...
1949
1 950. ...
Year
Annual
i.e
9.0
10.0
5.V
-3.9
16.4
0.1
-7.6
-5.7
-5.0
5.0
4.3
2.6
-10. ft
-1.0
1.5
-3.3
-2.6
60?. FEDERAL «(WERNMENT EXPENDITURES, NATIONAL INCOME AND
PRODUCT ACCOUNTS 1 (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
a. 4
745.
AVfcRAGE
34.9
43.5
44,7
40.8
42.4
38.2
42.8
43.5
38.8
46.6
4l!l
42.1
42.6
38.5
52.9
42 !l
44.5
42.4
37.5
57.5
39,1
43,2
43.3
38.9
49.9
64.0
67.2
70.0
63.6
72.1
77.6
AVfcRAGE HOURLY COMPENSATION, ALL EMPLOYEES IN PRIVATE
NONFARM ECONOMY 3 (INDEX!
1967-100)
ai,6
AVEKAlaE
35!6
29.8
34.9
41.3
40,8
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
37.0
40.5
42.9
43.9
37.9
41.2
42.9
44.6
3o!6
42.2
43.0
45.6
39i5
42.7
43,0
46.9
3e!2
41.7
43.0
45.3
67.2
73.5
77.3
67.6
69.0
7U.1
57.8
71.0
77.0
69,7
68.1
71.9
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
47,9
51.3
54.0
56.2
57.6
60.7
49.0
51.6
54.7
56.6
58.6
61.9
49.6
52.0
55.4
57,0
59,2
62.9
50.6
53.4
55.7
57.5
59,8
64.0
49,3
i>2,l
55.0
56.6
56.9
62,4
79.7
90.3
90.9
94.2
102. 9
110.2
80.9
9?, 9
91.0
95.7
104.3
11?.. 4
79.6
B8.9
91.0
93,0
102.1
110,3
1957
1956.....
1959
1960
1961
1962
64.9
67.5
70.6
73.7
75.4
78.9
65.6
68.0
71.2
74.3
76.6
79,5
66.4
68.9
71.8
74.7
77.3
80.0
67.2
69.6
72.4
75.0
78.0
60,6
66.0
68,5
71.5
74.4
76,8
79,8
112.1
118.5
120.?
138.4
161.2
181.0
113. 8
118.1
126.5
146.5
16&.0
183.9
11^.1
117.8
128.5
151.1
168.8
186.7
113.9
118.1
123.5
142.8
163.6
131.5
1963
1964
1965
1966....,
1967
1968
81.5
85.0
66,0
92.5
97.8
104.9
81.9
85,7
89.0
94.1
99.3
106.4
82.8
87.2
90.0 '
95.4
100,8
108.3
83.9
87.7
91.1
96.9
102.2
110.6
b2*6
86.4
69,5
*4.7
100.0
107.3
187.6
206.7
221.?
189.9
205.1
222.6
19?. 2
206.6
22**. 0
169.2
203.9
221.0
1969
1970
1971
1972.....
1973
111.6
119,6
128.3
113.7
121.9
130.8
115.5
124.5
132.9
117,9
126.0
134.5
114.6
123.0
131.6
1945
1946
1947. . .*
1948
1949
1950
42.8
28.7
31.0
40.0
47.2
35!A
29.2
32.9
41.7
39.0
32.1
32..?
36.7
42,4
36.4
3? .* 6
29.3
39,0
41,4
40.4
19*51
195?. . . .
1953
1954
1955
1956
47.6
66.1
76.2
73.4
67.9
6Q.3
54.5
70.1
76.0
69.5
67.1
71.8
61.9
74.4
76. J?
68.6
68.3
72.3
1957. . . .
1958
1959
I960. . . .
1 961
1962. . . .
7fl.l
8U.1
91.7
90.4
99.3
10fl.4
79.7
88.3
90.4
9?.0
101.6
110.2
1963 ...
1 964. . . .
1965
1966. . . .
1 967
.
19f,ft
114.4
117.8
118.8
135.0
159.3
174.5
1969
1970
1971
j 97?
1973
186.1
195.4
212.4
745-C. CHANGF FROM PRECEEDING PERIOD IN A V G . HRLY. COMP. , ALL
EMPLOYEES If* P R I V A T E NONFAKM ECONOMY 8 t ANN, RATE, PERCENT)
PERCENT CHANGE
745-C. 4-QUARTER PERCENT CHANGES IN A V G . HOURLY COMP.., ALL
EMPLOYEES IN PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMYMANN, RATE, PERCENT)
AVtKAtiE
*!o
o.7
o!?
4.8
-0.5
12.3
3.1
5.4
1945
1946
1947
194ti
1949
1950
9.3
2.9
5.1
2.5
5.4
8.0
6.7
3.4
4,9
3.0
4.8
6.7
*.4
1C. 7
?.7
3.4
7.8
6.6
8.9
5.6
5.6
3.4
3,6
6.0
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
9.3
4.5
6.4
3.0
3.9
6.2
7,8
5.5
4.4
3.1
4.0
6.9
7.0
5,4
4.1
2.8
5.1
6.8
5,4
6.0
3.4
3.5
5.8
5.9
7.4
5,4
4.6
3,1
4.7
6,4
.9
1.8
5.7
7.3
2.1
4.7
4.4
2.P
3.5
3.3
6.6
2.9
5.2
fi.5
3.?
1.9
3.6
2.-*
f .0
".3
3.8
J.7
3.9
4.1
5.8
3.8
4.3
4.1
3.2
3.9
1957
1956
1959
1960
1961
1962
5,5
3.8
4.1
4.0
3.5
3.6
5.1
3.6
4.0
3.5
4,0
3.7
4.1
4.6
4.4
2.2
4.7
3.3
3,7
4.7
4.4
3.1
3.8
3.1
4.6
4.2
4.2
3.2
4.0
3.4
1963. ....
1 964 . . .
1 965
1966
1967
1968.....
3.4
5.4
1.3
6.0
3.8
11.0
2.0
3.3
4.4
7.5
6.4
5.9
U .4
6.H
4.6
5.4
6.2
7.3
f^.4
?.8
5.3
6.3
5.6
8.7
3.5
4.7
3.6
5.8
5.6
7.5
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
3,5
5.2
3.2
6.0
5.7
7.4
3.8
4.6
3.8
6.3
5.5
8.2
4.3
3.5
5.1
5.7
7.3
6.6
4.6
3.8
5.6
5.5
7.1
6.9
4*0
4.3
4.5
5.9
6.4
7.3
1 969. . , .
1 970
1971
1 97? . .
1973
4.7
5.7
7.6
6.9
8.?
7.9
6.6
8.6
6.fl
0.6
P
6.7
7.2
7.0
1969...
1970...
1971...
1*72...
1973...
6.7
7.8
6.8
6.7
6,8
6.7
6.9
7,3
7.3
7.2
7.2
6.6
6.9
7.3
6.6
1945 . .
1946
1947
194B
1949
1950
lo!9
2.1
8.9
9.9
7.3
0.1
6.8
7.7
10.0
1951
1 95? ...
J953
1954
1955
1956.
8.?
5.5
4.9
3.7
2.2
6.5
1957
1 958
1 959
I960
1961
196?. ...
c
'This series contains
This series contains
3
Year-to-year percent
"This series contains
a
o.o
.o
f.7
revisions beginning with 1970.
revisions beginning with 1969,
changes are computed from annual data.
revisions with 1968. The percent changes are centered within the spans.
.
.
.
.
.
9.4
2.0
5.9
8.2
0,6
9,2
9.5
6,0
2.3
9,1
8.9
4,2
3.9
9.6
7!6
2,2
8,5
(SEPTEMBER 1973)
111
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
IIQ
IIIQ
IQ
IVQ
746. REAL AVERAGE HOURLY COMPENSATION, ALL EMPLOYEFS IN
PRIVATE NGNFARM ECONOMY 1 ( INDEXt 1967-100)
Annual
Year
Annual
IQ
AVERAGE
IIQ
IHQ
IVQ
746-C. CHANGE FROM E'RECEEDING PERIOD IN 1REAL AVG. HRLY. COMP
PEKCtWT '^HA«b£3
ALL EMPLOYEES IN PKIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY t ANN. RATt,PEKCkNT
1945
1946
1946
1947
1918
1949
1950
57.0
57t4
60.0
6?. 3
57.6
57.5
60.1
62.8
57 jl
57.6
60.4
62.7
56.8
5^.9
60.5
63.3
57^2
57. (J
60.2
62.9
1947
1948
1949
1950
4.0
8.1
12.1
3.7
0.7
0.6
3.7
-3.4
0.5
1.9
-0.7
-1.8
V.3
0.9
3,7
4,1
4,4
19*1
195?
t9P3
1954
19P5
1956
6?, 4
64.9
67.9
69,6
79.1
73,6
63.?
65.1
68.1
70.3
73.?
76.5
63.9
65.0
68.7
70. fl
73.7
76. «
64.1
66.7
69.1
71.7
74,3
77.5
63,4
65.5
63,6
70.6
73,4
76.6
1VS1
1*52
1953
1954
1955
l'J56
-5.5
5.5
7.2
4.2
2.6
7.4
5.0
1.1
3.3
2.9
5.9
4. 8
4.8
-0.6
1.9
2.6
3.0
1.4
0,9
10.7
2,?,
&.2
3.3
3.5
0.8
3,3
4,«
3*0
3,9
4,4
19*7
19*8...,.
1959
1960
1961
196?
76 ,,1
7R.5
78.1
78.9
81.8
83.9
79.0
80.3
78.4
79.2
31.9
83,9
1957
1958.....
1959
1960
1961
1V62
3.3
-2.2
6.1
7.3
1.7
3.9
0.1
-0.1
1.8
0.5
6.6
1."
1.0
4.7
0.8
1.1
1.6
1.0
3.3
4.3
1.7
-0.6
3.1
3,3
2, 2
190
3,5
2,5
87.9
78.3
79.4
82.0
84. Jl
86.1
88.1
2.6
4.3
0.4
3.0
3.1
6.6
1.3
2.5
1.4
3.0
3,5
1.1
1.3
5.3
3.1
1.8
1.9
2.1
4.3
1.3
3.0
3.0
2.0
3.9
2o2
U9
^«8
2«7
3,2
-0.3
-0.6
4.2
0.0
1.6
3.3
0.7
3.9
2.6
2.7
-0,4
2.4
a, 6
m&
ai.5
B3rt«
84 „ 4
87a6
as. ?
e:>. 3
34.0
86.7
86.8
es.7
«aa
1963
1964
196"5
19A6
1967
1968
69 „ 4
9108
94 0 Q
96u 4
99(,0
102 „ 5
89.7
92.4
94.3
97.1
99.9
102. B
89.9
93.6
95.0
97.6
100.4
103.3
90.9
93.9
9*. 7
9fi.3
100.9
104.3
90.0
93.0
91.7
97.4
100.0
103.2
1963
1964....
1965....
1966....
1967.,..
1968....
1969
V970
1971
197?
1973
104.2
104,9
107.4
104.?
105.4
108.?
104.4
106.4
106.9
10?. 1
106.3
109.6
io<*.5
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
746-C. 4-OTR f'FRCENT CHANGES IN REAL 3AVG, HOURLYCOMP B J ALL
EMPLOYEES IN PRIVATE NONFARM ECONOMY ( ANN. RATEt PERCENT)
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
19?1
195?
19<S<J
1954
19<5<$
1956
2a?
3e3
1.3
1*2
AVfeKAtiE
3.6
2.8
4.6
0.6
4.6
3.H
0.2
-oil
n*8
4.9
3.9
4.5
4.6
0.5
3J4
'4.0
,2.3
1.9
1.7
5.7
3.0
4.?
1.?
4.1
3.6
3.7
3.7
4.3
4.0
4.5
2.9
3,3
4.0
3.3
3.1
?.l
?.H
".1
4.6
?.l
2.6
3.8
3.8
3.5
'*.4
3.5
1951
1952
1953
W54
1955
1956
60.1
61,8
64.5
65,5
69,6
69,6
61.0
62.4
65.5
66.3
70.1
69.6
62.6
63.1
65.6
67.5
70. 0
69.7
62,5
63.6
6b,9
68.4
69.8
71.0
61.5
62.7
65,3
66,9
69,9
70,0
0.5
4.2
2.5
2.2
3.S
2.0
:L.2
;».7
;>.e
;i,9
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
71.6
72.6
76.5
78.9
78.0
82.8
71.9
73.5
76.8
78.1
80.9
63.9
72.2
75.0
76.6
77.6
61.8
85.2
72.6
76.0
77,7
78.0
4.2
?.o
1.4
3.?
2.6
?.3
2.3
1.9
1.6
?.6
2.0
3.?
?.4
O.-J
3.7
2.9
0.7
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
2.1
U.I
1.5
2.7
?.9
?.9
3.4
3.3
2.0
2.7
2.6
3.4
2.1
2.4
2.6
2.7
3.5
1.7
?,8
2.9
1.**
1969
1970
1971.....
197?
1973
1.1
1.9
2.4
0.8
1.1
3.1
0.7
2.3
3.6
1.1
2.7
3,3
3.e
2.1
T,l
2.1
?.o
770-C. CHANGE FROM PRECEEDING PERIOD IN OUTPUT PER MANHOUR,
TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY 1 (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1951
195?
1953.....
1 9<54
1955
.
1956
770. OUTPUT PER MANHOUKj TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY 1
(INDEX! 1967-100)
AVERAGE
aa
1945
1946
1947
1948.,.-..
1949
1950,....
1957
1 9^Q
1 959
1960
1961
196?
1945
1946
1947
1948
19U9
1950
105.7
10B.5
ill
3!4
-1.0
20.0
«3.1
-tt.l
5. a
»?.o
7.1
«1.4
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
196?
3.3
»0.4
3.1
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
«0,i"4
6,8
fr.fi
6.0
••1.3
4.6
1969
1970
197K....
197?
1973
-0,3
-0.9
8. A
6.<3
0.1
0.7
I
112
51.1
53.7
54.5
59.2
51.0
53.6
56.1
60.3
52.1
54.4
56.2
60,5
sili
£3,6
b5.3
59.7
86.7
V2.0
74,3
76,9
76,2
80.9
S4.7
;>.6
3.0
2.3
;>.7
;j.o
1963
1964
1965....,
1966
1967
1966
86.6
90.6
92.8
97.4
98.5
101. €
66.9
90.9
93.3
97.8
100.2
102.7
88.3
91.6
94,9
97.8
100.6
103.3
89.1
91,4
96, U
9d.9
100,7
103.7
«s7,7
VI, 1
V4.2
V8,l)
100,0
102,9
0.9
1969
1970
1971..,..
I<c72
1973
103.6
102,9
107.5
103.4
103.6
103,0
103.3
105.7
109.3
103.1
105,3
11U.1
103,3
104,4
108.7
3.0
2. 2
!>.4
;>.o
5.1
PERCENT CHANGE
aa.?
770-C. 4-QUARTER PERCENT CHANGES Jh OUTPUT PER MAN-HOUR,
TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY (ANNUAL KATE, PEHCENT)3
tUb
21.2
fl.l
1945
1946
1947
1946
1*49
1950
5.1
4.7
7.5
4^4
3.4
7.7
2.1
3.7
0.8
4,0
2.9
3.6
-0.4
3.2
1.7
3.6
3.8
2.1
1.7
3.0
4.2
1.7
6.2
0.0
2.9
2,4
&.0
1.2
3,8
-0.7
AVbNAbt
1.'6
9.3
1.6
2.?
-0.7
-0.0
12. *
e.2
£I<*
6.0
C.6
1.3
6.?
3.7
6.3
4.8
3.5
0.5
10.9
4.?
0.2
7.3
-0.8
0.6
-0.5
3,3
l.H
5.5
-1.2
7.4
3.0
1.9
t.2
2'. 4
4.4
0.2
1951
1V52
1953
1954
1955
1956
1.8
5.4
1.3
-4.?
15.6
5.1
1.5
8.2
-O.K
-2.5
4.7
6.6
?.6
S.3
?,7
?.l
4.3
6.9
2.9
3.1
3,6
1.6
3.5
4.7
1957,....
1958
19£>9
1*60..,..
1961
1963
3.5
3.9
2.2
1.2
5.5
4.1
2.3
4.6
2.3
0.4
6.0
4.8
1.4
5.5
3.1
-1.2
6.2
4,5
2.3
4,5
1.7
3.6
3.7
3.6
2.1
4,6
2,3
1.0
3.<4
1.7
1.9
1.9
1.7
7.0
3.7
6.2
3.4
7.0
0.0
1.4
2.2
fc.O
-0.9
4.9
4.3
0.3
1.5
3.6
3.9
3.4
4.0
2.1
2.9
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
3.6
3.8
3.5
3.1
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.6
5.0
3.0
1.8
3.0
4.7
2.5
4.9
1.2
3.3
1.7
4,5
?..&
4.9
3,9
2.9
4.6
2,*t
2.6
d.Q
-0.9
3.6
2.0
-0.1
7. ft
4.7
-0.8
-1.5
3.2
0.4
1.0
4.1
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
0.0
2.3
3.4
-0.5
2.1
4.6
-0.7
4.5
3.0
U.4
4.1
4.1
7his oorlec contains revisions becimiing with 1969.
Yoar=t«=yecr percent changes are computed from annual data
2
50.9
52.5
54.3
58.8
3.2
3.3
b.5
•5,1
1.4
3.6
3.0
3, a
a.b
2.&
0,6
S!&
6,3
&il
3,1
a. ^
2i 6
4.7
1.3
1.3
*».a
-0.3
j.a
j.a
irrwn. l«7'it
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
Annual
IQ
034.
IIQ
III Q
IV
PROFITS. MANUFACTURING, FNCB--ABOUT 1,000 CORPORATIONS 1
(DIFFUSION INDEX--1-QUARTER SPAN)
19K5
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
5?
27
60
56
3?
70
59
53
75
1951
195?
1953
1954
1955
1956
46
46
46
57
59
5?
4?
39
53
53
65
48
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
196?
52
40
59
52
47
54
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1 97?
197?
252.
Year
Annual
1 Q
Q
250. BALANCE
IIQ
ON GOODS AND SERVICES,
II! Q
feXCLUDING
IV Q
TRANSFERS
UNDER MILITARY GRANTS 2 {MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
AVERAGE
TOTAL
4B
47
*55
40
63
1945.
1946,
1947,
1948.
1949.
1950.
34
56
47
50
53
43
55
65
41
52
55
52
44
52
47
S3
58
49
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
46
4?
63
40
60
47
42
71
46
4S
44
53
54
46
55
51
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
6(JO
1,6'*6
l,i:J3
8 4
1,3]S7
1,4112
1,1" '8
48
37
58
48
47
56
56
1,2'74
1,3'15
1,5C 2
1,32.4
>b
5,901
2,3b6
310
4,093
5,582
5,OB6
50
59
56
59
47
54
59
59
58
6?
49
49
56
59
57
50
52
56
55
55
5*
51
55
56
55
58
b7
56
51
54
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
78
2,2f 10
13
1*5*
1,5.16
1,3. J9
4!)9
i,r
1,5<>1
1,9'74
2,0£13
1,3^>6
1,4;>2
8J>1
1,« 18
2,1<il
1,9 15
1,0'78
1,3(93
8155
1,76J3
2,12.4
1,5S)8
1,15>9
.1,01 b
3L>4
5,940
8,537
7,141
5,210
5,132
2,465
5?
51
58
55
47
59
49
5?
59
50
44
51
52
49
57
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
2'78
9{)7
9J
2<>0
9"71
SI
6"72
1,0'
*7
2f JO
-be 0
6" 9
7C 4
1,891
3,630
807
54
EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES, EXCLUDING TRANSFERS
UNDER M I L I T A R Y GRANTS 3 (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
7,807
11,617
6,518
6,218
1,892
3,617
2,3b6
£32
•';
2^1b3
4,145
i4
253.
TOTAL
i:
IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICED
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
14,792
19,819
16,861
15,834
13,893
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.
10,343
9,616
12,001
1951
19F?
1953
1954
1955
1956
18,864
13,122
17,078
17,889
19,948
23,772
1951.
1952.
1953,
1954.
1955.
1956.
15,047
15,766
16,546
15,930
17,795
19,627
1957
1958
1 9<59
1960
1961
196?
6,5 84
7,1 97
7,3 34
6,8 30
6,9 41
7,7 83
26,653
23,217
23,652
27,490
28,773
30,510
1957,
1958,
1959.
1960,
1961.
1962.
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
196fl
7,6 01
9,1 95
49
iojs 39
11,4 59
11,9 46
64
9 ^ 0 73
10.? 69
10,6 68
11,4 67
96
8.
9,
10,
10,
11,
13,
i^O
S17
L86
184
724
718
32,623
37,304
39,461
43,341
46,210
50,664
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969
1 970
1971
197?
1973
11,° 40
15,3 76
16,4 87
14,1 99
15,7 68
16.7 81
14,!535
15, <?75
?82
14, 1>05
15, it03
15,'739
55.478
62,919
66,287
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1.945
1 946
1947
1948
1949
1 950
515.
7, 331
7, 227
7, 73*
?30
121
L60
?51
309
7, 348
7, 410
7, S60
6,
9,
10,
11,
11,
12,
U.S. PALANCE OF PAYMENTS ON GOODS, SERVICES AND RFMITTANCES 2 (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
:::
517.
TOTAL
5,9()4
5,5J)1
6,2C)1
6,0] 6
5,6C 4
6,31 1
6,4;.3
6,9] 5
7,2£
9,OC 3
10,1; ,0
11, 4t17
6,6C 3
7,0' 9
6
9*2- 2
10,01 5
11,81 5
11, 6« 2
14, 4( 9
15,5J 3
13,93 9
14,79 7
16,65 0
5,6J>3
5,9*>3
0
6
6,0fi 6
6,49 5
20,752
20,861
23,342
23,397
23,191
25,424
2
9,8-r3
10, IS 7
12, 4S>4
S
7^4< 3
8,62 6
9,96 b
10,71 9
12,41 4
26,6^3
26,766
32,320
JS,131
41,07d
48,199
13, ee 3
14,9;.8
17, OC>2
14,12 6
15,09 9
16,29 9
&5'480
•?
$0
8,2* 5
U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ON CURRENT ACCOUNT 2
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
5,887
5,577
1,359
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.
-2,125
1951.
195?.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
3,337
1,785
-112
1,326
1,556
3,455
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954,
1955,
1956.
302
-175
-1,949
-321
-345
1,722
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
196?.
5,172
1,611
-505
3,465
4,923
4,375
1957.
1958.
1959.
I960.
1961.
5,116
7,671
6,113
4,230
3,853
1,264
594
2,150
-745
1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
197?.
1973.
:::
4 48
1,4 74
9 51
663
1,179
1,366
1,1
I f ] 10
1,1 70
!•- 33
1, 57
<?87
9 52
1,3 50
1,3 32
l.o 73
1i2
1,36?
1,764
1,780
1,163
1,035
'581
13
I ( »40
l.< 65
IJ01
l,t)OB
i,:J17
<J63
L6
5 55
5 39
-76
591
-243
e>66
!41
136
?,o 71
1
-
29
This series contains revisions beginning with 1970.
>78
\tl596
735
-2
1,993
:::
-5
-2,138
1,801
3,069
90
1,01 6
42 6
26 3
712
82 2
57 6
67 3
713
81 0
66 5
48 3
1963.
1964.
1965.
1V66.
1967.
1968.
54 0
1,62 6
93 9
71 4
61 8
0
89 1
1,26 4
1,30 3
67 9
57 3
15 9
716
1,47 9
1,20 4
36 2
5J 9
0
1,05 0
1,41 4
85 8
54 4
33 8
-49 0
3,199
5,783
4,306
2,320
2,0bl
-443
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
-36 1
13 8
15 1
-601
18 9
-728
0
2
-67 8
-6 1
-13 b
-1,53 8
-I,0b0
416
-2,790
i;
(SEPTEMBER 1973}
113
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
IQ
IIQ
IIIQ
..«
1951
195?
1953
1954
1955
* * 4
...
!! !
. . ,.
..*
..„
.. *
. * .,
!! !
.. .
...
V956
1957
1958
1959
1960
. . ,.
-350
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
-403
794
196?
-«16
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
-1,074
72?
1969
1970
1971
197?
1973
»?9*t
- 1 , ?, 1 0
-1,386
-970
«41Q
-'46i">
-356
522.
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
-604
.?
-16?
-118
-154
131
-2,041
-601
-?,994
!! !
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
!! !
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
!! !
.. *
...
...
...
...
-60
-377
-546
-497
-417
-6
355
-*33
-163
-166
-674
-883
-470
-501
-514
-713
-1,143
-356
-3,294
"27
-868
-1,881
U.S. BALANOK OF PATfMHJTS — OFFICIAL RESERVE THANSAOTCWS FALANBE'* (KELLICNS OF DOLLARS)
..»
. *d
*.*
.. f
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
....
1953
1954
.. »
. * ..
...
...
...
1956
..,
...
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
196?
..
*«o
.**
1969
1970
1971
197?
1973
...
...
-311
1951
195?
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
...
...
...
.. .
-360
-826
-40^
-359
-978
-?OB
-946
-494
•713
-433
-610
69?
186
-,l,76'J
-147
-671
.136
1,93)
1,344
-5^630
889
-1,99?
-6,345
.*.
...
...
...
...
...
.. ,
.« «
.. .
!!!
...
...
...
-962
-47"
-97?
-10*.
-312
18
55?
48
37*
-439
-1,886
- 11,882
...
V9
*°
...
195?-
1956
!. .
. *.
...
...
...
-1,328
-76
-1,804
-1,724
-3,304
-1,411
.. .
.. .
...
11
-1,454
-738
-913
94
-S19
-784
?45
-1,032
-330
990
-3,164
-5,900
...
-1,365
-1,291
-2,672
1969
1970
1*71
1972
1973
OUTSTANDING ®
1945..,.
1946...,
1947,,,.
1940....
1949....
1950,...
...
...
!!!
*..
. . 0
.. .
...
...
...
11,688
12,630
13,766
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
14,10'i
14,930
15,873
16,004
16,29B
18,407
15,024
15,188
15,736
16,305
17,4?4
16,994
16,250
15,794
15,972
15,797
17,819
17,493
V969
16, 9H
19,404
28,960
16,006
20,451
34,584
17,732
22,262
45,91S
l')6a
1969,
1970.!.!!
1971
1972
1973
534.
!!I
11,396
12,572
13,055
1959..,!!
END OF YEAN
,.8
10,989
11,645
12,671
1957
1553
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
2 739
-9,839
-29,753
II! U
IV Q
...
...
...
...
...
**
»..
...
]|
,t
,,
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. *
!! !
...
-920
-679
-496
110
-422
-1,021
-199
-t>61
-418
-193
-367
-995
-623
.442
-979
-309
-60
-3,069
.,,
tt
...
*.•
..
!! !
...
-1,194
— 1 123
-802
-9,448
-1,276
-553
-623
-1,824
-436
415
-906
-4,151
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
...
.. .
. *,
...
.. *
...
...
...
...
* ••
.,
,t
11
11
!!!
...
..
!!.
». *
.•*
.. *
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
:;
...
20,990
22,985
...
...
20,637
21,236
23,469
21,086
22,360
23,281
21,027
22,936
24,06H
24,741
26,149
28,342
28,738
28,990
32,482
25,807
26,478
28,086
28,619
29,620
32,514
26,178
27,429
29,051
29,432
31,211
33,506
26,322
29,002
29,115
29,779
33,119
33,828
34 930
42^970
45,484
39 043
43^375
51,406
44^201
60,761
.* .
19,974
r
...
!! !
.**
., .
...
...
...
...
..,
. .*
...
...
...
*.*
...
...
...
!!!
.• ,
.. .
!! .
'!!
...
...
...
!! !
...
...
!!.
!I«
««
-3,67'?
—2 23?
-2,713
-2,696
-2, 15 t
-4,663
-1,611
-6 0<H
-3,6bl
-?1 96'i
END OF YtAH
41, 759
43,291
64,166
U.S. OFFICIAL RESERVE (ASSETS) FOSITION, EXCLUDING
MILITARY G R A N T S 3 ® (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
^Hg
1946.!!!.
1947
1946
1949
1950
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
...
...
*.•
,, f
.. .
...
...
,. c
! . t>
!»o
!.!
-940
-209
-2,067
-356
-5,698
. . 0
(t
-690
. » 0
..
t1
...
TOTAL
11
530. LIQUID LIABILITIES TO ALL FOREIGNERS , TOTAL
3
-1,934
-1,534
-1,290
219
-3,418
1,641
...
.. *
.. *
...
*!!
...
...
,« .
...
...
...
!! I
5,9 OS
6,824
8,6yy
8,726
10,34?
11,273
12,336
13 396
15,69't
16 tJ4y
19,42^
2 1 , C2 ^
22,93<)
24,0&«
26,332
29,002
29,lUt
29,779
33,119
33,821)
_
4 J, 759
64,166
END Of- Y t A K
24 6 ? S
25' 7b9
24^6?
24,300
24,715
23,45^
22, 79?
23,666
11,888
12.630
13,766
1957
1956
1959
1960
1961
1962
21,345
16,966
18,326
21,170
19,308
18,490
20,430
19,521
17,609
19,359
16,753
17,220
15,766
16,755
16,«22
16,043
19,402
16,574
15,366
16,755
16.822
16,043
19,402
18,574
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
17,188
16,894
15,830
15,026
13,855
13,926
17,065
16,591
15,762
14,958
14,274
14,063
16,638
16,521
15,721
14,876
14,649
14,634
16,843
16,672
15,450
14,682
14,630
15,710
14*6J@
15^710
17,162
24,396
51,209
17,15.2
24.396
51,209
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
15,758
17,350
14,342
16,057
16,328
13,504
16,743
15,527
12,131
16,964
14,487
12,167
16, 96^
14,48?
12,16?
t
114
-
1960
1961
1962
...
..
..
••
-720
-885
-8Q4
J968
-3,403
-1,348
-2,650
...
**.
...
...
This aorioB contains rovlniona bogintjing with 1960.
HOrioB conta&fifi revisions beginning with 1968.
Tliin series eon to ins no roviniono but is reprinted
-140
-1,111
1956.!.!!
...
.. .
.. .
...
3
Tliis
3
-1,266
!!!
...
...
...
..*
...
. . 0
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
..
...
.. .
»..
...
* • <>
-1,006
.. ,
•..
...
...
...
*..
...
...
...
1962!!!!!
t
(g
...
. * 11
. * i.
. >,
.. ,
-675
-562
*.,
10 ,.480
11,940
12,n9Ji
l
-1,188
-15
-1,042
...
11
(,
..
...
...
.. ,
...
,. ,
,,.
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
196?
1970
1971
197?
1973
*..
*..
1957
1958
1959
1960
...
,• .
...
**.
•.•
...
1951
1953
)954
1955
1951
1952
1953
1V54
1955
1956
...
.,
1948
1949
1950
TOTAL
532. LIQUID AND CERTAIN NONLIOUID LIABILITIES TO FOREIGN
OFFICIAL AGENCIES, TOTAL OUTSTANDING 3 ® (MIL. D O L . )
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1945
1946 .
1947
...
...
...
...
-3,046
-3,031
-9,550
IIQ
521. U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS— NtT LIQUIDITY BALANCE 1
(MJLLIOfs'S OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
...
...
Annual
1 Q
IV Q
519. U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ON CURRENT ACCOUNT AND LONG
TI'RH CAPITAL 1 (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS >
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
Year
Annual
24 B3?
22' §40
31 * <^ 0 i
19^ 3b^
18,753
17,220
16,843
16,672
15,450
l')73)
• the uonvoninnce of the user.
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
Annual
Year
1 Q
IIQ
III
Q
536. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS,
ADJUSTED, EXCLUDING
GRANTS1 (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
Annual
IQ
IV Q
537.
MILITARY
TOTAL
II Q
III
Q
fVQ
MERCHANDISE IMPORTS, ADJUSTED, EXCLUDING MILITARY 1
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
1945
1946
1947.. . . .
1 948. ....
1949.....
1950.
11,764
16,097
13,265
12,213
10,203
1945.....
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951. ....
195?. ....
1.953,
1954.....
1955.
1956.....
14,243
13,449
12,412
12,929
14,424
17,556
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
11,176
10,638
10,975
1C,3S>3
11,527
12,603
1957.
1958.
1959.....
1960.
1961.
1962.....
4,685
5,095
5,077
4,916
4,806
5,336
5,031
5,038
5,331
5,018
5,169
5,037
19,5f>2
16,414
16,458
19,650
20,108
20,781
1957
195b
1959
1960
1961
1962
3,812
3,394
3,966
3,858
3,438
4,080
3,648
3,809
4,116
3,440
3,896
4,098
13,291
12,952
15,310
14,7b6
14,537
16,260
1963.
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968.....
5,063
6,242
5,687
7,193
7.688
7,044
5,599
6,199
6,938
7,171
7,714
8,390
5,671
6,423
6,863
7,408
7,663
8,898
5,939
6,637
6,973
7,538
7,601
8,394
22,272
25,501
26,461
29,310
30,666
33,626
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
4,064
4,416
4,688
6,030
6,668
7,823
4,226
4,598
5,484
6,170
6,476
8,136
4,372
4,756
5,567
6,617
6,570
8,576
4,386
4,930
5,771
6,676
7,152
8,456
17,048
10,700
21,510
25,493
26,666
32,991
1969
1970.....
1971
197?
1 973
7,U90
10,239
10,872
9,480
10,564
10,791
9,569
10,704
11,522.
9, 861
10,457
9,583
36,400
41,964
42,768
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
7,589
9,727
10,743
9,572
9,Q31
11,708
9,271
9,961
11,907
9,375
10,269
11,108
3b,607
39,788
45,466
5<»0. U.S. INVESTMENT INCOME, MILITARY SALES, AND OTHER
SERVICES EXPORTS, EXCLUDING MILITARY GRANTS1 (MIL. DOL . )
1945.
1 946. ....
1947. . . .
1948. ....
1949.
1950.
TOTAL
•• *
541. FOREIGNERS' INVESTMENT INCOME,
MILITARY EXPENDITURES,
AND OTHER SERVICES IMPORTSl (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
5,067
5,973
7,5S7
6,874
9,081
TOTAL
3,028
3,722
3,596
3,621
3,690
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1,918
2,229
2,7«6
2,742
2,920
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
4,621
4,673
4,6t>6
4,960
5,524
6,216
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
3,871
4,928
5,571
5,577
6,268
6,824
1957
1958. . , .
1959, . . .
1960
I9ftl
1962
1,899
2,102
?,257
1,914
2,135
2,447
2,000
2,189
2,404
2,030
2,241
2,623
7,091
6,803
7,194
7,840
8,665
9,729
1957
1956
1959
1960
1961
1962
2,172
2,157
2,235
2,158
2,166
2,261
2,205
2,144
2,274
2,106
2,190
2,397
7,461
7,909
8,032
8,639
8,6b4
9,164
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
196S
3,162
3,346
3,771
4,002
2,565
2,874
3,331
3,497
3,753
4,306
2,559
2,99*1
3,297
3,543
3,897
4,411
" 2,689
2,980
3,213
3,646
4,123
4,324
10,351
11,803
13,000
14,031
15,544
17,038
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
2,359
2,499
2,578
2,973
3,452
3,664
2,377
2,501
2,702
3,102
3,569
3,709
2,440
2,504
2,678,
3,256
3,627
3,878
2,459
2,563
2,857
3,309
3,567
3,958
9,635
10,066
10,810
12,633
14,212
15,208
1,«50
5,137
5,615
4,719
5,204
5,990
4,966
5,271
5,760
4,944
5,346
6,156
19,078
20,955
23,519
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
4,073
4,742
4,790
4,367
4,966
4,942
4,592
4,967
5,095
4,751
4,930
5,191
17,780
19,501
20,014
1969
1970.....
t971
1972
1973
542. INCOME ON U.S. INVESTMENTS ABROAD 2
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950. . . .
543, INCOME ON FOREIGN INVESTMENTS IN THE U.S.3
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
TOTAL
1,553
1,615
1,839
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
291
342
379
1951
195?
1953
1954
1955
1956
2,154
2,120
2,215
2,555
2,317
3,100
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
434
445
483
443
520
606
1957
1958
1959
I9f,fj
1961
1962
946
1,124
1,186
944
1,110
1,294
999
,166
,?93
1,052
1,?05
1,146
3,263
3,287
3,566
3,939
4,604
5,219
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
290
254
286
279
255
289
278
266
297
253
274
297
675
703
660
1,098
1,050
1,167
1963
1964
1965
1 966
1967
I960.
1,372
1.A01
1.792
1.308
1,966
2,126
,326
,580
,857
,883
,950
2,373
,374
,63ft
,78?
1,901
2.151
2,398
1,467
1,583
1,662
1.988
2.244
2,339
5,539
6,399
7,092
7,561
8,311
9,233
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
325
370
418
498
601
696
337
375
455
515
600
744
351
373
440
582
589
775
371
404
487
611
635
800
1,386
1,524
1,798
2,206
2,423
3,013
19A9.....
J970
1971
197?
1973.....
?,47?
?,936
2,989
2.586
2.779
3,315
P.706
2.863
3,038
2,775
2.650
3,557
10,539
11,426
12,899
1969
1970
1971
1*72
1973
929
1,344
1,160
1,078
1,322
1,135
1,242
1,284
1,293
1,315
1,217
1,340
4,564
5,167
4,927
(SEPTEMBER 1973)
115
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Quarterly
IIQ
IQ
544.
1947!!!!'.
T948
.. 6
1951
1 95?
1 953
1954
1955
1956
!.I
..*
.
.... *
•.... .
...
1 . 0>
1 949
1950
...
...
.!.
...
...
...
...
...
IQ
IV Q
IIIQ
RECF'IPTS FROM FOREIGN TRAVELERS JH THF U.S.1
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1945
Annual
Year
Annual
Year
IIQ
...
...
271
364
334
392
419
1945
1946. . . . .
1947
1948
1949
1.950
473
530
574
595
654
705
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
?42
?29
7-35
825
902
919
9,147
957
1957
1958
1959
I960
19tol
1962
435
440
466
447
437
483
...
...
...
ii.
...
!..
...
...
* *•
...
...
...
!!!
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
*.*
.i .
?31
!!!
...
!!!
..... •
,,t
•. •
...
...
...
..•
.i •
!!.
.. ii*.
.. *...
.
.... i
...
11
,( ,
...
437
,, ,
...
1,37?
U460
1,610
1,750
541
Sbl
2,11%
2,211
625
671
743
744
2, 657
3,207
3,030
237
240
231
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
?45
29?
319
37tfr
41?
43S
253
297
337
394
392
431
253
303
347
410
414
451
264
315
377
412
428
460
1,015
1,207
1,330
1 , 5'90
1,646
1.775
1963
1964
1963
1966
1967
I*60
503
531
600
644
707
760
525
544
603
676
643
736
§45
555
610
666
914
786
1969
1970
1971
197?
1973
49fl
518
575
590
M9
?9.1
623
H23
C
94
657
2,0(58
2,330
2,464
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
829
935
1,046
853
1,001
1,061
865
1,021
1,056
570
59^
546.
MILITARY SALES TO FOREIGNERS 1
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1945
1946
1947
1,94fl
1949
1950
..i
i. .
..•
*. •
...
1951
195?
1953
1954
1955
1956
...
...
...
...
...
547.
TOTAL
...
*..
442
488
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
. «*
i.*
.i .
..*
...
1903
1946!!!!!
1947
1948...'..
1949
1950
...
...
...
**.
...
...
...
...
*.i
..•
* «,
...
...
...
...
...
*.*
...
...
...
...
...
...
*..
l'?2
1*2
200
161
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
...
...
.* .
**.
...
...
...
..«
...
...
...
..*
...
...
...
...
...
...
375
300
3D2
335
402
6!>6
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
...
...
...
781
786
770
...
i..
769
781
763
...
.•i
431
466
Su2
860
1,012
1,113
U.S. MILITARY EXPENDITURES ABROAD 0 ®
(KiILLIOMS OF DOLLARS)
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
573
631
700
?b?
&40
929
1,009
...
ii.
227
237
250
...
...
..,
..i
..i
!!.
..... *
., ,...
...
...
22^
22$
247
...
...
TOTAL
...
,f
"
*..
...
...
...
...
...
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
196?
•. »
IV Q
545. PAYMENTS BV U.S. TRAVELERS ABROAD 1
(MILLIONS OP DOLLARS)
TOTA.
...
III Q
*.i
...
...
...
•! .
...
...
...
...
2,901
1963
1964
1 965
19A6
1967
1968
187
?07
207
196
329
302
195
151
186
214
329
343
127
19?
229
203
J*4rt
392
J48
19P
206
216
>tl
356
6'?7
7<*7
8 50
8J>9
1,2'*0
1,3"2
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
763
747
676
877
1,085
1,103
748
737
719
925
1,075
1,112
1,106
1,147
1,112
1,173
1969
1970
1971
197?
1973
407
266
496
328
435
507
441
347
489
336
(.29
1,512
1,478
1 , 9 '.( 2
1969
1970
1971 *
1972
1^73
1,198
1,180
1, 175
1,187
1,259
1,214
1,221
1,210
1 204
1 251
U203
1 237
,9U9
I'1*0
...
...
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
19S6
...
i»•
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
196?
...
...
...
...
658
664
714
654
676
714
676
67?
726
734
853
791
846
949
1,006
1,082
1,159
1,287
1,415
1,578
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
197?
1973
lr
..*
...
...
...
t1
» ii .
'•
I!
...
...f
1I
t t
...
•...
...• •
344
968
1,064
1,141
1,073
1,363
1.534
...
...
116
725
697
794
967
2,996
3, 105
2,9fel
2'»H@
3^764
4^36
4 ^56
J'8S>2
«<*2
TOTAL
1949!!!!!
!...
!!
...
...
...
...
!!!
...
...
...
...
...
.!!
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
666
677
713
663
693
726
669
731
728
766
851
818
677
865
001
954
1,059
1,105
767
845
935
986
1,051
1,115
1,033
1,018
1,166
1,040
1,077
1,241
4,011
1,117
1,283
1,407
1,249
1,364
1,532
1,264
1,452
1,542
l,5'&
4,^b3
1^398
5^15
5,980
I,6!i3
2.2!iO
*>61
700
744
2,666
2,3V1
2,404
2,648
2,7U
2,8'>7
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
805
867
939
,029
.092
,170
810
884
968
1,030
1,110
1,169
3,1'U
3,4!>0
3.699
4,0-11
4,348
4,6:(8
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1960
.300
.470
,610
1.310
1,473
1,523
4,969
5,722
6,246
1969
1970
1971
1972
1-J73
^visions beginning with 1970.
> revisions but is reprinted for the
wislons beginning with I960.
726
699
763
975
3,107
3, ©6?
...
1951
1952
1953 i •
1954.!!!.
1955
1956
l'6;>8
737
727
610
...
*.*
...
1V50
!!!
...
...
...
•.... .
601
705
761
...
1,709
2,003
...
1945
1946
1947
1,994
...
...
3,216
...
549. PAYMENTS FOR TRANSPORTATION AND OTHER SERVICES3
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
U432
...
...
.i .
!! !
..*
nils series contains
n»ls series contains
'TTils series contains
a
...
...
...
...
...
2,054
2,6lfe
2,64^
2,949
...
..*
66
94
204
...
...
...
...
493
455
79$
621
576
•. *
...
...
...
68
111
154
1945
1946
1947
3,407
3,969
4,278
...
...
...
80
112
189
TOTAL
1^939
i a?e
..•
...
71
86
110
548. RFCEIPTS FOR TRANSPORTATION AND OTHER SERVICES3
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
i,a?s
TOTAL
...
...
1957
1 958
1959
I960
1961
196?
...
1, 133
...
...
...
!.!
!...
!!
...
!.!
1^079
1,211
1,410
...
...
...
...
!..
o85
723
788
822
1, 3H*t
U&94
1,994
2,196
2,311
2^704
2,921
2,9^5
3,176
3J&23
1,501
4,203
4,629
19V 5^
'enience of the usier
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Quarterly
Year
Annual
I Q
560.
II Q
IIIQ
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN THE U.S. 1
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
. .
. . .
40
20
41
59
3?
77
53
•5
6
-1 1
26
8
j 964 ...
1965
19A6
1 967 . . .
1968
-5
17
85
52
64
251
47
?9
-95
38
70
5
10
>'!
+4
-1 L3
L2
>3
-E 7
-Z 4
I2
11 0
Ua
H i
24*
491
)24
164
104
1
1 •>?.
2 15
-u<>s
21 0
15 0
ie 4
564. FOREIGN PURCHASES
(MILLIONS OF
OF U.S. SECURITIES 3
DOLLARS)
1951
...
1 953
1954
1955
1956
. .
1957. . . .
1 958 , .
1 959
*
1 96n
1961
196?
1963
1964
1 965
170
104
145
1952!
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
508
6b2
7J5
667
823
l,9bl
73
132
-5
-5
57
258
319
832
1,030
-115
1957.
1958.
1959.
1*60.
1961.
1962.
2,442
1963.
1964.
1966!
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970,
1971.
1972.
1973.
565.
-338
-100
-1^2
74
-7
1945.
1946.
1947.
1946.
1949.
1950.
126
37
70
141
161
323
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
237
1957,
1958.
1959.
I960.
1961.
1962.
>3
6
-i I
e
3 f3
4 ?6
2 72
2 52
2 34
4 29
4.J4
4 33
4 ?8
6 35
3 36
4 55
1^372
1,674
1,598
I,6b4
6 20
4 >2
1,2 + 5
7 >8
7()7
4J>6
4 ?2
6 13
8 79
9 34
5 18
8 +3
3 J4
6 s4
6 55
9 L7
9 17
1,0. J3
5 50
5 36
7 )9
1,0 32
9(>4
8'76
1,976
2,328
3,468
3,661
3,137
3,209
9.10
1,2" 79
1,2£>5
1,0 34
1,2 53
1,3
*3
9()3
atJ6
1,4EjO
4.J5
1,0 L4
8<?b
3,271
4,410
4,943
U.S. PURCHASES OF FOREIGN SECURITIES 3
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
-V2
95
-27
275
353
87
206
-20
421
470
J
•
2<16
1.J5
1<)6
1 b6
2 46
3 )6
1LI
1<i4
(i7
1 iO
2.>7
3 7b
668
663
762
969
!•2
JO
-2 >7
1C17
5<>0
1,1<24
If 3
-2 6
55
9
i C
34
1,312
282
-84
-357
909
1,016
4,414
1963.
1564.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
5,>2
>0
1<>8
3<57
2E>9
3()0
5 16
2 >6
1
*7
>0
2 !7
1 )5
1()0
•2
2()9
1
4()9
21)9
-i>3
4<?4
2()b
t»4
3()1
b b
1,105
b77
7b9
482
1,266
1,239
1,388
304
559
365
374
196
y *&
?!>0
6< •6
Pfi 1
79 2
<iC 8
3,130
2,190
2,269
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
3<)5
2 LO
3f )6
4<79
-<?3
3'11
5(>6
4tJ8
3(Jb
l<Jb
3,J7
?1
1,4*4
942
966
. . .
570.
90
132
158
124
197
232
114
14
-24?
520
3?9
1,122
196?!!!!!
1 96R
230
749
721
660
621
449
282
324
134
s
3
TOTAL
14
-42
57
173
133
«55
.
1 969. . . .
1970
. .
1 971
1 97?. ...
1973
Ufl
15?
7
IVQ
10
34
56
60
TOTAL
1945
1946
1 947 . .
1948
1 949, . . .
19PSO
IIIQ
1945,
1946.
1947.
1946.
1949.
1950.
155
98
238
1957 . .
1 958 . . .
1959 . . .
I960
1961
1 962
IIQ
561. U.S, DIRECT INVESTMtNTS ABROAD*
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
1949
1950. . . .
1 969. . . .
1970 .
1971
197?
1973
Annual
IQ
IVQ
1945
1946
.
1947 . .
1951
195?
1953
1954
19S5
1956
Year
GOVERNMENT GRANTS AND C A P I T A L TRANSACTIONS, KFT 4
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
575.
TOTAL
BANKING AND OTHER CAPITAL TRANSACTIONS, NET 4
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
-5,537
-6,507
-5,017
-5,800
-3,642
1945.
1946,
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.
-279
-276
-128
36
-338
1 951
195?
1953
1954 . .
1 955. . . .
1956
-2,962
-2,666
-2,264
-1,683
-2,366
-2,487
1951,
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
-163
-160
247
-7t>5
-519
-5*9
1 957 . .
1958
1959 . . .
i960
1 961
1 962
1957.
1958.
1959.
I960.
1961,
1*62,
-b&4
li >8
-3;>7
-5'?5
-2 39
-4 72
12
-6f Jl
-3E)9
-2S)0
-b<?b
-6()0
-1()6
-424
-301
-1,626
-1,598
-908
1 945 . .
1946
1947
1948
1 949 . .
1950 . .
-470
-927
-976
-79 1
-5 3
-90 9
-6 4
-9.57
-4 8
-89 5
-1,07 5
-?S
-2,638
-2,745
-1,968
-2,767
-2,939
-2,856
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
-914
-72?
-835
-1,051
-1,110
-938
-J,12 3
-92 9
-98 4
-1,06 3
-95 3
-35 3
-5'?4
-7,23
-8()8
-7f)3
-8iJ5
-7J>7
-M 4
-1.00 4
-05 8
-fi3 5
-1,?6 4
-44 6
-3,454
-3,376
-3,586
-3,731
-4,214
-2,465
1963.
1964,
1965.
1966,
1967.
1968.
-3
-9()9
-t36
1 L2
4f >4
ItJ8
-5 i9
-6138
7()0
4"74
5.10
4'
*8
-If 34
-8it4
•5
K )9
-4;>8
]6
-b'?7
-8(>0
2()6
3(>3
-1<?4
4f57
-1,373
-3,301
815
1,248
362
1,111
1969
1970
1971
197?
197?
-643
-1,199
-1,212
-1,33 4
-33 5
-1,210
-1,31>1
-9*>1
-1,2<>ti
-64 1
-1,19 6
-Rfi 9
-4,136
-3,678
-4,605
1969.
1970.
1971,
1972.
1973.
-It31
-3*>4
-1,0 6
-3.JO
-,JO
-7*14
2()4
9
-1,8<>1
-2'73
«J9
-9'to
-4,641
"•This
s
This
3
contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user,
contains revisions beginning with 1969.
-5UO
(SEPTEMBER 1973)
This
117
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970
Duration in months
Trough
Cycle
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Business cycle reference dates
Expansion
(trough to
Peak
65
30
22
,46.
18
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
36
99
(X)
40
54
50
52
101
March 1887 . . . .
July 1890
January 1893 ...
December 1895 .
June 1899
September 1902 .
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
May 1907
January 1910 ...
January 1913 ...
August 1918 . . . .
January 1920 ...
May 1923
23
13
24
23
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
October 1926 ...
August 1929 ....
May 1937
February 1945 ..
November 1948 .
July 1953
14
13
43
13
27
21
50
§0
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
41
41
34
93
93
45
56
35
25
105
34
114
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October 1860 ...
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
March 1882 . . . .
(X)
18
Moy1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
August 1904
Juno 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
Peak from
previous
Trough from
previous
trough
,
a
ii
_a
11
9
12
7x7
58
44
34
117
Average, all cycles:
27 cycles, 1854-1970
11 cycles, 1919-1970
5 cycles, 1945-1970
19
15
11
33
42
49
52
56
60
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
August 1964
April 1958
February 1961
*November 1970
July 1957
May 1960
*November 1969
IxT
S
60
3
59
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, Korean War, and Vietnam War), the postwar contractions,
and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
tentative and subject to revision as more information becomes available.
'26 cycles, 1857-1969.
10cycles, 1920-1969.
2
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
118
3
S
4
6
5cycles, 1945-1969.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
ALPHABETICAL INDEX
Series Finding Guide
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
descriptions
data
(issue do to) (issue date)
A
Accession rate, manufacturing
2
Anticipations and intentions, businessmen's
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . . D61
Employees, manufacturing and trade
D446
Inventories, manufacturing @nd trade
D450
Orders, new, manufacturing
0440
Prices, selling, manufacturing
0462
Prices, selling, manufacturing and trade
0460
Prices, selling, retail trade
0466
Prices, selling, wholesale trade
0464
Profits net manufacturing and trade
0442
0444
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade
Automobiles
Cars new purchased by households
430
Expenditures, personal consumption
234
Product, gross, constant dollars
....
249
See Employr nent and unem jloyment.
46
46
47
46
47
47
47
47
46
46
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
3/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
S e e N I A - P e rsonal consumi tion expend tures.
SeeNIA-Gr oss national pr oduct.
45
84
3/73
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Compensation of employees-Continued
Earnings, avg. hrly., prod, wkrs., priv. nonfarm
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm
Earnings, real spendable average weekly
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . .
Composite indexes
Capital investment commitments
Coincident indicators five
Coincident indicators five deflated
Coincident indicators five rate of change
Employment marginal adjustments
Financial flows sensitive
Inventory investment and purchasing
Lagging indicators six
Leading indicators, twelve
Leading indicators, twelve, reverse trend adj
Profitability
Current ssue
(page numbers)
Series
Charts
Tables
Historical
Saries
data
jescriptions
(issue date) ssue date)
740
58,59
92
8/73
741
859
748
749
53
58,59
58
59
59
23
92
92
93
93
76
8/73
7/73
2/72
2/72
8/73
814
820
825
820
813
817
815
830
811
810
816
38
37
37
65
38
38
38
37
38
37
38
83
83
83
5/72
1/72
1/72
11/68
12/71
11/68
853
See Investme nt, fixed.
435
45
84
3/73
1,1/68
112
110
*72
66
33
34
11/72
*113
34,40
6/73
7/72
6/73
4/73
4/73
0/73
4/73
7/72
83
83
83
83
83
83
83
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
6/72
6/72
10/72
6/72
6/72
7/68
11/68
5/72
5/72
B
Balance of payments - See also NIA - Foreign trade.
Balances
Banking and other capital transactions, net
Current account
Current account and long-term capital
Goods and services
Goods, services and remittances
Government grants and capital transactions, net
Liabilities, liquid
Liabilities liquid and nonliouid
Liquidity net
Merchandise trade
Reserve position U S official
Reserve transactions, official
Special drawing rights, allocated to U S
....
Exports
Goods and services
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Investment foreign direct, in the US
Investment income, military sales and service
Merchandise, adjusted
Military sales to foreigners
Net, goods and services
Orders, new, manufacturers' durable goods
Orders, new, nonelectrical machinery
Securities, U.S., purchases by foreigners
Total, excluding military aid
Transportation and services receipts
Travelers, foreign, receipts from
Imports
Goods and services
Income on foreign investment in the U S
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services
Investments abroad U S direct
Merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Military expenditures abroad U S
Securities, foreign, U.S. purchases
Total general
Transportation and services, payments for
Travelers abroad U S payments by
Bonds - Sse Interest rates.
Building - See Investment, fixed.
Business failures, current liabilities
Business starts
Formation, business, net
Incorporations new
Buying policy production materials
....
....
....
....
....
575
517
519
250
515
570
530
532
521
500
534
522
535
53
49
49
49,51
49
53
50
50
49
48
50
49
88
87
87
87
87
88
87
87
87
86
87
87
87
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
6/73
9/73
9/73
5/69
252
542
560
540
536
546
250
506
508
564
502
548
544
51
52
53
51
51
52
87
88
88
87
87
88
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
48
48
53
48
52
52
86
86
88
86
88
88
3/73
3/73
9/73
6/73
9/73
9/73
87
88
9/73
541
561
537
547
565
512
549
545
51
53
51
52
53
48
52
52
87
88
87
88
88
86
88
88
9/73
14
34
81
7/73
25,39
77
77
7/73
*12
13
26
5/69
5/69
5/69"
5/69
See Balance of payments - Balances.
51
52
253
543
5/69*
25
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
9/73
6/73
9/73
9/73
8/68#
5/69*
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
7/73
See Invento ies.
C
Canada- See International comparisons.
Capacity adequacy, manufacturers'
Capacity utilization
Gap (potential GNP less actual)
Output to capacity manufacturing
....
Potential GNP constant dollars
Capital consumption allowances
Capital investment - See Investment, fixed.
Cars -See Automobiles.
Cashflow net corporate constant dollars
Cash flow, net, corporate, current dollars
Compensation of employees -See also NIA - National
and personal income.
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
....
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
orivate nonfarm
416
207
850
206
296
84
3/73
11/68
SeeNIA'G ross national p oduct.
62
1 96
34
33
625
547
621
616
648
647
264
546
55
89
36,42
36
7/64
11/72
10/72
10/72
11/72
Orders, new, defense products industries
Purchases of goods and services
Sales, military to foreigners
Deficit or surplus, government - See NIA - Budget.
Depreciation
Diffusion indexes - See also Anticipations and intentions.
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing
Claims, avg. weekly initial, unemploy. insurance —
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial materials prices
Industrial production
Orders, new, durable goods industries
Prices, 500 common stocks
Prices, wholesale, manufactured goods
Profits, manufacturing
Sales retail stores
Workweek, avg., production workers, mfg
Disposable personal income - See NIA • National
and personal income.
Drawing rights
Durable goods
Automobiles - See Automobiles.
Expenditures, personal consumption -See NIA Personal consumption expenditures.
Inventories business change in
Orders, export, excluding motor vehicles
Orders new
Orders new components
. .
Orders unfilled
Orders, unfilled, change in
Orders, unfilled, to shipments
Sales final
See Balance f payments - Ir iports.
89
55
55
89
55
89
89
55
See NIA - G o vornment pure'
4/73
4/73
8/73
8/72
9/68#
See Balance Df payments - E xports.
296
S e e N I A - S a /ing.
011
D5
041
D23
047
06
D19
058
034
054
D]
63
63
64
63
64
63
63
64
63
64
63
535
See Balance Df payments - 0 ilances.
97
98
98,100
97,100
98,101
97,99
1/73
7/73
7/73
6/72
5/73
8/73
97
11/71
98,102
7/73
9/73
7/73
7/73
97
98,102
97,99
6/69*
4/69*
5/69*
6/69
6/72*
271
506
*6
D6
96
25
852
270
See NIA - G oss private dorr estic invostrnent.
See Balance of payments- E xports.
|9/68
77
i8/73
25,39
SeeDiffusio n indexes.
9/68
78
8/73
27
9/68
8/73
79
29
9/68
96
8/73
62
See NIA - Ft lal sales.
2
841
*5
20
60
1/73
E
31
31
80
80
8/73
8/73
1/72
1/72
745
58,59
92
9/73
10/72
58,59
93
9/73
10/72
746
39
33
81
81
82
82
81
81
81
D
Defense
Contract awards, military prime
Expenditures abroad, U.S. military
Obligations incurred, procurement
Obligations incurred, total
S e e N I A - G ross national p oduct.
SeeNIA-"S vng.
35
34
'Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
44
Construction - See Investment, fixed.
Consumer goods ratio of business equipment to
Consumer installment debt - See Credit.
Consumer prices - See Price indexes - Consumer.
Consumer sentiment
josts - See Labor cost and Price indexes.
Credit
Bank loans to businesses, change in
Borrowing total private
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Consumer installment debt
Consumer installment debt change in
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Mortgage debt change in
Earnings - See Compensation of employees.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate manufacturing
.
Civilian labor force':total
....
Claims, avg. weekly initial, unemploy. insurance . . . .
Claims, avg. wsetty initial, unemploy. insurance,
diffusion incfe^:.
Employed persorfs in civilian labor force
Employees, mfq. and trade, diffusion index
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
20,39
74
94
74
7/73
4/73
5/73
8/68
4/72
6/69
4/73
|4/72
05
842
See Diffusio n indexes.
0446
See AnticipE tions and inten tions.
60
94
NIA means National Income and Product Accounts.
119
Series Finding Guide—Continued
Senos titles
(Seo complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Series
number
Charts
[i m ploy men t and unemployment' -Continued
Employees on nonaqrieulloral payrolls
•41
041
Employee on nonagriculturat payrolls, components .
Help-wanted flilvertisinij in newspapers
46
Help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed
860
Job vacancies in manufacturing
50
Layoff rpto, manufacturing
3
Man-hours in nonoqriculturol establishments
48
Man-hours in norttgrieultuml estab., rate of change . . 48
Marginal employment adjustments
813
Overtime hours, production workers, mfg
21
Persons on gaged in no rtugr [cultural activities
42
Unemployed perse? ns in civilian labor force
Unemployment rate, both ssxes, 10-19 years
Unemployment rate, fo malts 20 years and over
Unemployment rate, 1 b weiiks and over , ,
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over ......
Unemployment ra:e, married males, spouse present .
Unemployment rate, Negro and other races
Unemployment rote, total ,
Unemployment rase, white
Workweek, production workers, components
Workweek, production workers, manufaeturing —
Equipment, business • Sse Investment, fixed.
Exports - Seo Balance of pmts. and NIA • Foreign trade.
Current issue
(page numbers}
843
846
845
*44
45
844
40
848
*43
847
D1
*1
21,41
See Diffusior
21
62
21
20
21
65
See Composi
20
21
Tables
75
indexes.
74
96
74
74
75
e indexes.
74
75
60
60
60
94
94
94
22/2
75
22
75
60
94
22
75
60
94
22,41
75
60
94
See Diffusior indexes.
20,39
74
Historical
Series
data descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
7/73
8/68
7/73
7/73
7/73
7/73
7/73
5/73
10/72
8/68#
8/6B#
8/68#
7/73
4/73
4/72*
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4A2
4/72
4Aa
4/72
6/69
4/72
4/72
4/73
4/72
4/72
4/72
7/73
8/68
V73
F
Financial flows, sonsitiva
Foreign series- Seo International comparisons.
Foreign trade • See Balance ol payments and NIA.
France • See International comparisons.
Free reserves
817
93
See Composi e indexes.
35
82
2/73
11/72
G
Government - Seo Balanee of payments, Defense,
and NIA.
Gross national product - See Capacity utilization and
NIA.
H
Hours • See Employment and unemployment.
Housing
Residential structures - See NIA • Gross private
do mastic investment.
Units authorised by lo&il bu siding permits
Units started, private, total ,
Vacancy rate, rental housing
•29
28
857
26,39
26
62
78
78
96
9/73
6/73
1/73
4/69
6/72
10/72
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
International comparisons-Continued
Industrie! production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD European countries
United Kingdom
West Germany
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
. .
Curre it issue
(page n umbers}
Series
number
.
Tobies
123
126
127
128
121
122
125
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
103
103
104
104
104
103
104
143
146
147
148
142
19
145
68
60
68
68
6S
68
68
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
Inventories
Business inventories, change in - See NIA - Gross
private domestic investment.
65
851
815
Investment and purchasing
412
Manufacturers' book value
414
Manufacturers', condition of
*71
Manufacturing and trade, book value
*31
Manufacturing and trade, change in
D450
Manufacturing and trade, diffusion index
Materials and supplies, change in mfrs.' book value . . 20
37
Materials purchased, higher inventories
26
Production materials, buying policy
286
Valuation, adjustment of, corporate profits
Investment, fixed -See also NIA- Gross private
domestic investment.
97
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
11
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing
Capital appropriations, new, mfg., diffusion index . . D11
814
Capital investment commitments
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial . . 9
8
Construction contracts total value
Construction expend,, bus.,rnach.and equip, sales . , 69
853
Equipment, business, ratio to consumer goods
560
Foreign direct investments in the U S
24
Orders, new, capital goods industries, nondefense . . .
*10
Plant and equipment, contracts and orders
Plant and equipment, new business expenditures . . . *61
061
Plant and equip., new bus. expend., diff. index
561
U.S. direct investments abroad
H'storiCfll Series
data descriptions
(issue date! (issue date)
9/7,1,
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
3/73
3/73
3/73
,10/72
.10/72
3/73
3/73
3/73
6/72
6/72
6/?2
6/72
6/72
8/73
6/72
79
a/73
29
62
96
i 8/73
See Composi e indexes.
84
9/7.1
44
04
3/73
29,42
79
a/73
28,40
70
a/73
See An tic i pa ions and inten KIRS.
79
a/73
78
28
8/73
23
79
2/73
See NIA -Ma ional and pers im.il income
78
27
1/73
26
77
1/73
See Diffusion indexes.
See Composi to indexes.
26
77
5/73
25
77
27
70
0/73
96
62
3/73
See Balance ( f payments - f & potts.
26
g/73
77
25,39
77
a/w
27,42,43 78,84
3/V3
See Anticipa ions and inten ions,
f
payments
•
n 30rt§.
See Balance E
1
9/68
2/69
11/60
11/68
3/69
a/69
9/68
9/681
11/68
9/68
9/66
11/68
Investments, financial - See Balance of payments,
Composite indexes, Interest rates, International
comparisons - Stock prices, and Price indexes - Stock,
Italy - See International comparisons.
J
1
Japan - See International comparisons.
Imports • See Balance of payment!? and NIA •
Foreign trade.
Income • See also Compensation of employees
and NIA • National and personal income.
Households, mean probability of change
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Receipts for transportation and other
services, U.S. bclanco of payments
Receipts from, foreign travelers in U S
Industrial materials pries - See Price indexes - Materials.
Industrial production - See also International
comparisons.
U.S., components
U.S index
U.S., rate of change . . .
Interest, net
Interest rates
Corporate bond yield
Mortgoge yield, resident ial
Municipal bond yield . .
Treasury bill discount rato
Treasury bond yield
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
,
Franco
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
West Germany
L
420
425
543
542
*52
3/73
45
84
3/73
84
43
See Balance c f payments - 1 nports.
See Balance c f payments - E xports.
76
8/73
23,41
548
644
See Balance c f payments - E xports.
See Balance e f payments - E xports.
D47
*47
47
288
*67
116
118
117
114
115
. .
133
136
137
138
132
135
"Denotes serios on the 1966 NS3ER "short list" of indicators.
120
See Diffusiot indexes.
23,41,67 76,103
65
5/73
5/73
11/68
11/68
7/68
36,42
35
36
35
35
35
1/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
66
66
66
66
66
66
103
103
103
103
103
103
6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72
6/7a
6/72
—
68
*62
63
*17
32
00
32,42
00
32
SO
See Price Ind ?xes.
^/V1
i/n
*>/V3
7/68
11/68
TO/72
3
See ^rnployr lent and unem iloyment.
85
102
33
33
01
81
6/73
6/73
: ,0/72
103
33
81
6/73
10/72
602
601
600
298
54
89
54
89
54
89
SeeNlA-Sa' ing-
1
'»/V3
^/'•-3
7/6S#
7/680
7/68#
270
274
273
15
15
10
.10/72
.10/72
10/69
10/69
M
11/68
11/68
See NIA -Ms tional and pers Dnal income
82
82
82
82
82
82
Labor cost per unit of gross product
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Labor cost per unit of output, total private economy
Labor cost, price per unit of
Labor force - See Employment and unemployment.
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Loans -See Credit.
Machinery - See Investment, fixed.
Merchandise trade - See Balance of payments.
Military -See Defense.
Money supply, change in
Money supply
Money supply and time deposits
Money supply, time deposits, and deposits
at nonbank thrift institutions
, 10/72
7/64"
7/64
7/64
7/64
7/64
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
N
National income and product accounts
Budget
Expenditures Federal .
Receipts, Federal
Surplus or deficit Federal
Final sales -See also Sales.
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Total, constant dollars ....
#Th0 "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
NIA means National Income and Product Accounts.
71
71
72
VV3
i/73
Series Finding Guide—Continued
Series titles
{See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
National income and product accounts-Continued
Foreign trade - See also Balance of payments
Exports, goods and services
Exports, goods and services net
Exports, goods and services, net, percent of GNP . . .
1 mports, goods and services
GovernmBr.t purchases (goods and services)
Federal Governmsnt
Federal Government, percent of GNP
Federal, State and local governments
Federal, State and local govts., constant dollars
National defense
State and local governments
State and local governments, percent of GNP
Gross national product
Auto product, gross, constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars
Charts
National and personal income
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, pet. of national income
Disposable personal income constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dol.
Disposable personal income, per capita, current dol. .
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income
Profits corporate and inventory-valuation adj
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation adj.,
percent of national income
Proprietors' income
Proprietors' income, percent of national income
Rental income of persons
Rental income of persons, pet. of national income . .
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods
Durable goods, excspt autos
Nondurable goods
Personal consumption expend., total, constant dol . .
Personal consumption expend., total, current dol ...
Personal consumption expend., total, pet. of GNP . .
Services
Tables
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date (issue date)
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
0
252
250
250A
253
13
13
19
13
71
71
73
71
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
5/69
5/69
10/69
5/69
262
262A
260
261
284
266
266A
14
19
14
18
14,55
14
19
71
73
71
72
71,89
71
73
10/72
10/72
10/72
1/73
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/69
10/69
10/69
18
9,18,23,
41,61,
65
9,23,41
65
61
61
9
9
9
56
72
69,76
95
69
69,76
69
95
95
69
69
69
90
1/73
'9/73
1/73
1/73
1/73
9/73
9/73
1/73
1/73
1/73
9/73
10/67
10/69
10/69
10/69
243
246
245
245A
271
275
247
241
241 A
240
242
248
244
244A
12
18
12,28
19
15
15
18
12
19
12
12
18
12
19
70
72
70,78
73
71
71
72
70
73
70
70
72
70
73
9/72
1/73
9/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
1/73
9/72
10/72
9/72
9/72
1/73
9/72
10/72
10/69
280
280A
225
224
227
226
288
288A
220
222
286
16
19
10
10
10
10
16
19
10
10
16
71
73
69
69
69
69
72
73
69
69
72
10/72
10/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
10/72
10/72
1/73
9/72
10/72
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
286A
282
282A
284
284A
19
16
19
16
19
73
71
73
71
73
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/69
10/69
' 10/69
10/69
10/69
249
*205
205
GNP, constant dollars, rate of change
GNP, current dollars
*200
200
GNP, current dollars, rate of change
207
GNP, gap (potential less actual)
206
GNP, potential, constant dollars
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
217
Per capita GNP, current dollars
215
Price deflator, implicit
210
Price index, fixed weighted, gross private product . . , 211
Gross private domestic investment
Equipment producers' durable
Inventories, business, change inconstant dollars . , .
Inventories, business, change in, current dollars
Inventories, business, change in, percent of GNP
Inventories, business, durable goods, change in
Inventories, business, nondurable goods, change in . .
Investment, fixed, nonresidential, constant dollars . .
Investment, fixed, nonresidential, current dollars . . ,
Investment, fixed, nonresidential, percent of GNP . .
Investment, gross private domestic, total
Structures, nonresidential
Structures, residential, constant dollars
Structures, residential, current dollars
Structures, residential, percent of GNP
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
n
u
11
11
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
11
70
70
70
70
70
70
73
70
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
10/72
9/72
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
296
290
292
854
17
17
17
62
72
72
72
96
1/73
10/72
10/72
9/73
10/69
10/69
10/69
7/68
294
298
17
17
72
72
1/73
1/73
10/69
10/69
236
275
274
SeeNIA-Pe sonal consumi tion expenc itures.
S e e N I A - G r oss private dorr estic invest!Tient.
S e e N I A - F lal sales.
234
232
233
236
231
230
230A
237
11,18
n
19
OECO, European countries, industrial production
Orders, new and unfilled - See Anticipations and
intentions. Balance of payments, Defense,
Durable goods, and Investment, fixed.
Output - See Industrial production, NIA • Gross national
product, and Productivity.
121
See Internatic nal compariso ns.
P
Plant and equipment - See Investment, fixed.
Price indexes
Consumer -See also International comparisons.
All items
Commodities less food
Food
Services
Deflators -See NIA -Gross national product.
Labor cost price per unit of
Materials industrial
Materials industrial components
Stock - See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks diffusion index
Wholesale
All commodities
Farm products
Foods and feeds processed
Industrial commodities
Manufactured goods
Manufactured goods components
deduction - See Industrial production, Investment, fixed,
and NIA - Gross national product.
Productivity
Output per man-hour, total private economy
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm econ. . .
Profits - See also N 1 A - National and personal income.
Corporate after taxes
Corporate after taxes constant dollars
Income originating ratio of profits to
Manufacturing
Manufacturing and trade net
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability
,
781
783
782
784
56,66
56
56
56
90,103
90
90
90
7/73
7/73
7/73
7/73
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
*17
*23
023
30,40
80
79
30,40
See Diffusion ndexes.
8/73
2/73
11/68
4/69
*19
D19
30,40
79
See Diffusion ndexes.
2/73
5/69
750
752
751
55
58
D58
57
57
57
31,57
31,57
See Diffusion
7/73
7/73
7/73
7/73
7/73
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
770
858
58,59
58
9/73
9/73
10/72
6/68
91
91
91
80,91
80,91
indexes.
93
93
*16
18
22
D34
D442
15
816
30,40
79
8/73
30
8/73
79
30
8/73
80
See Diffusion indexes,
See Anticipat ions and inten tions.
30
80
1/73
See Composi e indexes.
534
93
See Balance c f payments - E alanees.
SeeFreerese rves,
7/68
1/72
7/68
3/69
R
Reserve position, U.S. official
Reserves, free . . . .
S
Salaries - See Compensation of employees.
Sales -See also NIA -Final sales.
Final sales
Inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Machinery and equip., and bus. construction expend.
Manufacturers' total value
Manufacturing and trade
Manufacturing and trade, net, diffusion index
Retail stores
Retail stores, components
Retail stores, constant dollars
Saving -See NIA -Saving.
Securities - See Balance of payments, Interest
rates, International comparisons- Stock prices,
and Price indexes- Stock.
Stock prices
. ..
Surplus or deficit, government - See NIA - Budget.
57
851
69
410
*56
0444
*54
054
59
24
76
See Inventori es.
See Investme nt, fixed.
44
84
24,41
76
See Anticipat ions and inten
24,41
7
f
See Diffusior indexes.
24 '
76
*19
See Price ind xes - Stock.
8/73
7/68
a/73
9/73
11/68
2/69
ions.
7/73
6/72
7/73
U
Saving
Capital consumption allowances
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving to disposable personal income
Profits, undistributed corporate plus inventory
valuation adjustment
Surplus or deficit govt
Unemployment - See Employment and unemployment.
United Kingdom -See International comparisons.
V
32
Vendor performannj
29
79
3/73
W
Nondurable goods
Expenditures, personal consumption
Inventories business, change in
Sales, final
*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
Wages and salaries - See Compensation of employees.
West Germany - See International comparisons.
Wholesale prices - See Price indexes - Wholesale.
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
NIA means National Income and Product Accounts.
121
Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the report's six sections, series are listed in
numerical order according to series numbers. The series
numbers are for identification purposes only and do not
reflect series relationships or order. To find chart and table
page numbers, historical data, and series descriptions, consult
the "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide."
The alphabetic-numeric designations following each series
title and source indicate the charts and tables in which the
series may be found. See the table of contents for the chart
and table titles and page numbers. "M" indicates monthly
series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of
month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter).
The "A" following a series number indicates a component
series (same number) as a percent of an aggregate series, such
as GNP or national income. The series in section B preceded
by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 N8ER "short list"
of cyclical indicators, chart B8. The "D" preceding a number
indicates a diffusion index.
253.
Imports of goods and services (Q).-Pepartment of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5, D2)
260.
Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6)
261.
Government purchases of goods and services total,
1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A 10)
262.
Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q).- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A6)
233.
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods
except automobiles, in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A3)
234.
Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
236.
Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable
good!;, in current dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
237.
Personal consumption expenditures, services, in
current dollars (Q).-Qepartment of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
240.
Gross; private domestic investment, total (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A4)
241.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential {Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)
264.
Federal Government purchases of goods and serv
ices, national defense (Q),-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6, D3)
State and local government purchases of goods
and services, total (Q).-Department of Corn-memo,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
•
(A6)
A National income and Product
262A. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(All)
200.
Gross national product in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(Al, B2, B8, E5)
241 A, Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential as a percent of gross national product
(Q).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
266.
205.
Gross national product in 1958 dollars (O/.
Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(Al, 82, 88, El, E5}
242.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)
210.
Implicit price deflator, gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A1)
266A. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Cornmorce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
243.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable equipment (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)
270.
Final sales, durable goods (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)
Per capita grass national product in current dollars
(Q).™Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)
244.
271.
Change in business inventories, durable goods
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)
273.
Final sales (series 205 minus series 246), 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A10)
274.
Final sales, nondurable goods, (QK-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)
275.
Change in business inventories, nondurable goods
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)
280.
Compensation of employees (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)
215.
217.
220.
222.
224.
Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars
{Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(Al)
National income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
244A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
245.
Personal income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
<A2)
Disposable personal income in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)
Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all
industries (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4, B4)
245A. Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
246.
Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, 1958 dollars
{QK-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
225.
Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
226.
Per capita disposable personal income in current
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)
247.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
227.
Per capita disposable personal income in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)
248.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
{A 10)
230.
Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
249.
Gross auto product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
230A. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
250.
231.
Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958
dollar}; (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A3, A10)
250A. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
groiis national product (O).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
232.
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
252.
280A. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(All)
282.
122
Com(AB)
Rental income of persons (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)
284A. Rental income of persons as a percent of national
income (Q).™Dapartment of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(All)
286.
Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
{A5, D2)
of
282A. Proprietors' income as a percent of national income
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(All)
284.
Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants (D).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5, 02)
Proprietors' income (Q). -Department
merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A8)
286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).™Depgrtrnent
of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(All)
Titles and Sources of Series
15.
Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).-Federal Trade Commission anc Securities and Exchange Commission;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic
Analysis
(B5)
39.
Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over (EOM).-American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc. {Bimonthly since December 1964)
(66)
*16.
Corporate profits after taxes (Q):-Department of
Commerce, iBureau of Economic Analysis (B5, B8)
40.
*17.
Index of pr[ice per unit of labor cost-ratio, index
of wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and
supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of
output (M).h-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
{B5, B8)
Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B1)
*41.
Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment survey (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
42.
Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor force survey {M).=Qepartment of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1)
*43.
Unemployment rate, total (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(61, B8)
*44.
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over {MKDepartnnent of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bt.BB)
(Continued)
288.
Net interest (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)
288A. Met interest as a percent of national income (Q).—
Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(All)
290.
Gross saving-private saving plus government surplus or deficit (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
292.
Personal saving {Q).-Oepartment of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
294.
Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
18.
Capital consumption allowances, corporate and
noncorporate (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
{A9}
*19.
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).Standard and Poor's Corporation
{B5, B8, E3, F3)
20.
Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories
of materialsj and supplies (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)
21.
Average weekly overtime hours of production
workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
{Bl)
45.
22.
Ratio of pmfits (after taxes) to income originating
in corporate business (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)
Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).-Department of Labor, Manpower
Administration
(B1)
46.
Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).-The Conference Board
(Bl)
*23.
Index of industrial materials prices (M).—Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, B8, E3, E4)
*47.
Index of industrial production (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, E3, E4, E5, F2)
Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, hondefense (M).-Department of Commerce, .Bureau of the Census
(B3)
48.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
<B1,E5)
Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)
50.
Number of job vacancies in manufacturing (EOM).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B1)
Buying policy-production materials, percent of companies reporting commitments 60 days or longer
(M).-Natinnaf Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)
*52.
Personal income (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2, B8)
53.
Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing,
and construction (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2)
*54.
Sales of retail stores (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
{B2, B8, E3, E4)
296.
298.
Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
<A9)
B Cyclical Indicators
*1.
2.
Averags workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Departrnent of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
Accession rate, manufacturing {M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)
3.
Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)
*5.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).—Department of
Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
{B1, E3)
24.
25.
*6.
8.
9.
*10.
11.
Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)
Index of construction contracts, total value
(M).-McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company.
(Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(B3)
Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGrawHall Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) {B3}
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis May 1970 and by source agency
thereafter.
(B3, B8)
28.
te h
New private
'housing units started, total (M).-Departorrln
*29.
Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureaju of the Census
(B3, B8)
55.
*31.
Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the
Census
(B4, B8)
Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
<B5, E5)
*56.
32.
Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting
slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management
Association qf Chicago
(84)
Manufacturing and trade sales (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of the Census
(B2, B8)
57.
33.
Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).—
Institute of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Associajion; Department of Housing and Urban
Development, Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)
Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2)
58.
Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(85, D4, E3, E4)
59.
Sales of retail stores, 1967 dollars (M).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2)
Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing corporations {Q).—The Conference
Board
(B3, E3)
*12.
Index of net business formation (M)-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. {B3, 88}
13.
Number of new business incorporations (M). -Dun
and Bnadstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(63)
14.
26.
Current liabilities of business failures (M). -Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.
(B6)
Corporate profits after taxes, 1958 dollars (Q)Departmentl of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)
34.
Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(85)
35.
Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Com.mei
(B5)
37.
Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of
purchased materials (M).-Nationa! Association of
Purchasing Management; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Ecpnomic Analysis
(84)
*61.
Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(B3, B8, C1, C2)
*62.
Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and
salaries and supplements to wages and salaries) to
index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysts, and the Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
123
Titles and Sources of Series
118.
Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages
(M).-Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(86)
*200.
Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in
section A.
(Continued)
63,
Index of unit labor cost, total private economy
(Q).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(85)
*205.
Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in
section A.
245.
Change in business inventories (GNP component)
(Q). See in section A.
810.
Twelve leading indicators-reverse trend adjusted
composite index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16,
17, 18, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(87)
811.
Twelve leading indicators-composite index prior to
reverse trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10,
12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) {[^.-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(87)
813.
Marginal employment adjustments-leading composite index (includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)
425.
Mean probability (average chances in 100) of sub
stantial changes (increase, decrease, and increase less
decrease) in income of households (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(CD
430.
Number of new cars purchased by households
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD
435.
Index of consumer sentiment (Q).-University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(CD
65.
Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EQM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)
66.
Consumer installment debt (EOM).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally
adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted
figure for previous month to obtain current figure
(86)
*67.
Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities
{Q).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
{86, B8)
68.
Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product
(1958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations-ratio of
current-dollar compensation of employees to gross
corporate product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)
69.
Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and
commercial construction put in place) (M).==
Departrnent of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (63)
814.
Capital investment commitments-leading composite
index (includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)
*71,
Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value
(EOW* -Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census {B4, 88)
815.
Inventory investment and purchasing-leading composite index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37)
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
*72.
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting largo commercial banks (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis {86, B8)
816.
Profitability-leading composite index (includes series
16, 17, and 19) (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(87)
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
817.
Sensitive financial flows-leading composite index
(includes series 33, 85, 112, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
0462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q).-Qun and Bradstreet, Inc. {Used by permission. This series may not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
0464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (()}. Dun and Hnit)
street, Inc. (Used by permission. This series moy not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
85.
Change in U.S money supply (demand deposits plus
currency) [Ml] (M).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)
93.
Free reserves (member hank excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)
820.
Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7, E5)
Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(63)
825.
Five coincident indicators-deflated composite index
(includes series 41, 43, 47, 520, and 56D) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)
830.
Six lugging indicators-composite index (includes
series 44, 61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
96.
97.
Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
(EOQ).-The Conference Board
(B3)
102.
Change in U.S. money supply plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's [M2]
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
103.
Change in U.S. money supply, plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's, plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions [M3] (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
C Anticipations and Intentions
61.
410.
110.
Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers
in credit markets (Q).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
{86)
Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(86)
*113.
Net change in consumer installment debt (M).-Board
of Govornors of the Federal Reserve System (B6, 88)
114.
Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
414.
115.
Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-Treasury
Department
(B6)
116.
Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).-First National City Bank of New York and
Treasury Department
(B6)
117.
124
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(86)
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade {Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreot, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
0450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreot, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
0466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstroet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from tha
source.)
(C2)
D Other Key Indicators
55.
Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M). See in section B.
Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries (Q). See in section 8.
58.
Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M).
See in section 8.
Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q).-Departmentof
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(CD
211.
Fixt'd weighted price index, gross private product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(04)
412.
112.
D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not bo
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
416.
420.
Manufacturers' inventories, total book value
(EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(C1)
250.
Balance on goods and services; U.S. balance of
payments (Q). See in section A.
Percent of total book value of inventories held by
manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less
percent classifying holdings as low (EOUK-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
252.
Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q).
See in section A,
(CD
253.
Imports of goods and services: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). See in section A.
264.
Federal Government purchases of goods and services,
national defense (Q), See in section A.
500.
Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series
512) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(PD
502.
Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
{DD
Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective operations over the next 12
months, less percent classifying existing capacity as
excessive (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
{CD
Current income of households compared to income a
year ago (percent higher, lower, and unchanged)
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD
Titles and Sources of Series
546.
Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-jDepartment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
748.
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-first year average (mean) changes (QKDepartment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(DB)
547.
749.
Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods
except motor vehicles and parts (M). -Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D1)
U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
548.
750.
Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery
(M). -McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-average (mean) changes over life of contract
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M).~
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D4)
549.
Payments for transportation and other services: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
751.
Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
512.
General imports, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(01)
560.
752.
Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M).~
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D4)
515.
Balance on goods, services and remittances; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Ecbnomic Analysis
(D2)
561.
770.
Index of output per man-hour, total private economy
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D(5)
Balance on current account; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(02)
U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
564.
781.
Index of consumer prices (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4, E5, F1)
Balance on current account and long term capital;
U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
565.
782.
Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
Net liquidity balance; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(02)
U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(02)
570.
783.
Index of consumer prices, commodities less food
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D4)
Official reserve transactions balance; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureaju of Economic Analysis
(02)
575.
784.
Index of consumer prices, services (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all
foreigners, total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments {EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(02)
Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S.
balance of payments {QK-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
600.
Federal Government surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts {Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)
841.
Total civilian labor force, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
{06}
601.
Federal Government receipts, national income and
product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureaju of Economic Analysis
(D3)
842.
Total civilian employment, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)
843.
Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)
844.
Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)
(Continued)
506.
508.
517.
519.
521.
522.
530.
532.
534.
535.
536.
Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding
military grants) to foreign official agencies, total
outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
602.
U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding
military grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
Federal expenditures, national income and product
accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D3)
616.
Allocations to the U.S. of Special Drawing Rights:
U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02)
Defense Department obligations incurred, total,
excluding military assistance (M).-Department of
Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)
621.
Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement j(M).-Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis
Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(03)
625.
Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms
and institutions (M).-Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)
845.
Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)
647.
New I orders, defense products industries (M),Depaijtment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (03)
846.
648.
New orders, defense products (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)
Unemployment rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D6)
847.
740.
Index of average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(05)
Unemployment rate, white, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(06)
848.
741.
Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
Unemployment rate, Negro and other races, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(06)
858.
Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(05)
859.
Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervispry workers (with 3 dependents)
on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1967 dollars
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D5)
Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
537.
Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military:
U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02)
540.
U.S. investment income, military sales, and other
services exports, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02)
541.
542.
543.
Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures
and other services imports: U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(02)
Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S.
balance of payments {Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
544.
Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
745.
Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
545.
Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(02)
746.
Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, private nonfarm economy (Q).-Departmerit of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
<D5)
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
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POSTAGE AND
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Washington, D.C. 20402
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
Titles and Sources of Series
857.
Vacancy ratn in rental housing-unoccupied rental
housing unit:; as a percent of total rental housing
(Q).-Departrnent of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)
860.
Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to total number of persons unemployed
(M).-The Conference Board, and Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
(Continued)
E Analytical Measures
47.
Index of industrial production (M). See in section 6.
48.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). See
in section B,
200.
GNP in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
205.
Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q), See in
section A,
206.
Potential level of gross national product in 1958
dollars (Q}.-Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
207.
Gap-the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual
GNP (series 205) (Q).-Council of Economic
Advisers
(El)
820.
850.
851.
852.
853.
854.
126.
France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
,
(F2)
127.
Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lnstituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(F2)
128.
Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo) (F2)
132.
United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).Ministry of Labour (London)
(F1)
133.
Canada, index of consumer prices (M).-Dominion
Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F1)
135.
West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(F1)
136.
France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(F1)
137.
Italy, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(F1)
138.
Japan, index of consumer prices (M).-Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo)
(F1)
United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M). Si3e in section B.
142.
United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-The
Financial Times (London)
(F3)
United State:;, index of industrial production (M).
See in section B.
143.
Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)
145.
West Germany, index of stock prices (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(F3)
146.
France, index of stock prices (M).-lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)
147.
Italy, index of stock prices (M).-lnstituto Centrals di
Statistica (Rome)
(F3)
148.
Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock
Exchange (Tokyo)
(F3)
781.
United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in
section D.
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index.
Diffusion indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the
same number and are obtained from the same sources. See
section B for titles and sources of D1,.D5, D6, Oil, D19,
023, D41, D47, 054, 058, D61, and section C for D440,
D442, D444, 0446, 0450, D460, D462, D464, D466, and
D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
034. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q),-First National
City Bank of New York; seasonal adjustment by
Bureeu of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)
Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 41,43,47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B.
F International Comparisons
Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q),-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and McGraw-Hill Economics
Department
(E2)
19.
Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56),
manufacturing and trade total (EOM).^Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (E2)
47.
121.
Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods (EOM).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods (M).-Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial
production.)
(E2)
Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income
(series 292 divided by series 224) (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (E2)
122.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial
production (M).-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Parts)
(F2)
United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M).-Central Statistical Office (London)
123.
125.
(F2)
Canada, index of industrial production (M).Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F2)
West
Germany, index
of
industrial
production
(M).-Statisth;ches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal
adjustment by OECD
(F2)
@FedFRASER