Full text of Business Conditions Digest : September 1969
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A UNITED STATES
DEPARTMENT OF
COMMERCE
PUBLICATION
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
SEPTEMBER
1969
DATA THROUGH AUGUST
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
This report was prepared in the Statistical Analysis Division.
Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication
are—
FeliksTamm—Technical supervision and review,
Barry A. Beckman-=Specifications for computer processing,
Gerald F. Donahoe—New projects,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods,
Betty F, Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data.
(Telephone 440-1596)
Editorial supervision is provided by Maureen Padgett of the
Administrative and Publications Services Division.
The cooperation of various government and private agencies
which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies
furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources
at the back of this report.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Maurice H. Stans, Secretary
Rocco C. Siciliano, Under Secretary
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of
a technical committee established by the Bureau of the
Budget. This committee consists of the following persons:
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Julius Shiskin, Bureau of the Budget
Chairman
George Hay Brown, Director
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director
William H. Branson, Council of Economic Advisers
A. Ross Eckler, Bureau of the Census
George Jaszi, Office of Business Economics
Geoffrey H. Moore, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board
EDWIN D. GOLDFIELD, Assistant Director
ABOUT THE REPORT
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
Una! expenditures for the
persona/, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehens/ve single measure
of aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or /aggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
bus/ness men and consumers regarding their
ma/or economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
Subscription price, including supplements, is $16 a year ($4 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues
are $1.50, Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign
airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your
This monthly report brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the
analysis of business conditions and was based largely o
the list of leading, roughly coincident and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Some other approaches commonly used by students of economic conditions include econometric models
and anticipations and intentions data. The econometric
model concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships among consumption, private investment, government,
and various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of businessmen and the intentions of consumers.
Most of the content of Bus/ness Cycle Deve/opments has
been retained in this new report arid additional data reflecting the emphasis of other approaches have
added to
to make it more generally useful to those
c*rn
with
an evaluation of current business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is
not to be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau
of the Census or any other government agency of any particular approach to economic analysis. This report is intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report
have been published by their source agencies. A series
finding guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and
data sources, is shown at the back of this report.
address label. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce Field Office.
BCII
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
.
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons
How to Read Charts...
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
SEPTEMBER 1969
Data Through August
Series ESI No. 69-9
in
New Features and Changes for This Issue..
1
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
3
4
5
PART I. CHARTS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
AS
A9
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services.....
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
9
.... 10
11
12
13
14
15
......16
...,17
...
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Bl
B2
B3
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
18
21
23
26
28
30
Selected, Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
NBER Short List
„
34
36
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
40
43
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components........
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
.-.
,
.-..
46
47
52
54
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2
E3
E5
Actual and Potential Gross National Product
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Rates of Change
..56
57
59
61
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
62
F2|
Industrial Production
63
F3|
Stock Prices
64
PART II. TABLES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
All
A2
A3
~A4
A5
A6
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
65
65
Personal Consumption Expenditures
66
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
66
67
67
A7
Final Sales and Inventories
67
A8
National Income Components...
67
A9
Saving
68
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment...
69
71
72
74
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
75
76
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
78
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
79
80
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components
82
83
Federal Government Activities..
Price Movements..
85
86
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential GNP
87
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components........
—
88
89
92
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production..
Stock Prices
98
99
............100
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See August issue)
101
B. Current Adjustment Factors (See August issue)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series........
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (Not shown this month)
104
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States:
1954 to 1961 (See August issue)
Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series
...
ii
113
115
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
Changes in this issue are as follows:
A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to in-
1. Series 4, Nonagricultural placements, all industries, has
been dropped from the short list of leading indicators because it
no longer appears to reflect accurately changes in cyclical trends.
During the past 2 years, the series has shown a trend contrary to
those of similar series such as the accession rate, initial claims
(inverted), and the layoff rate (inverted). The reason for this
appears to be the Labor Department's policy change regarding the
public employment offices; i.e., the shift in emphasis of these
offices from total placements to counseling, placement, and other
services for disadvantaged workers. Since services for disadvantaged workers take more staff time than is required for more
qualified workers, the effect of this policy change has been to
slow down the number of placements.
corporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
A comparison between nonagricultural placements and accessions
and new hires in manufacturing, the only sector for which the BBS
placement data and the BLS data on accessions and new hires are
all available, shows a considerable decline in the ratio of placements to accessions since 1965 and in the ratio of placements to
new hires since 1963* Thus, placements in 1968 were 15 percent
below their 1966 peak level while accessions and new hires were
down by only 5 percent each. These empirical results support the
explanation given above.
Nonagricultural placements will be replaced on the short list
of leading indicators by series 5, Average weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance programs. This change also affects
the two leading indicator composite indexes which included nonagricultural placements—series 810, Twelve leading indicators,
and series 813, Marginal employment adjustments. The series on
initial claims (series 5) is being substituted for Nonagricultural
placements in the index of 12 leading indicators and by the
accession rate (series 2) and the layoff rate (series 3) in the
marginal employment adjustments index0 The new selection of
series seems to have had no appreciable effect on the trend of
the indtfx of 12 leading indicators; however, the marginal employment index, as revised, shows a slight upward tilt for recent
months in comparison with the earlier index.
Continued on page iv.
The October issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
release on October 30.
iii
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.
2. The composite index of 12 leading indicators prior to reverse trend adjustment (series 811) is introduced in Appendix C,
Historical Data for Selected Series, of this issue0 Current
data for this index will not be published on a monthly basis; however, the historical data will be updated and republished in
appendix C at 6-month intervals. A brief discussion of the method
of constructing composite indexes and the reason and procedure for
reverse trend adjusting the leading index will be included with
each presentation of historical data for the leading index prior
to trend adjustment.
3. Many BCD users have expressed interest in certain rates-ofchange series as measures of economic performance. In recognition
of this interest, rates-of-change series are introduced in this
issue for 7 coincident indicators (series 47, 48, 52, 54, 55, 200,
and 205), the composite index of 5 coincident indicators (series 820),
and for the consumer price index, all items (series 781). These
rates of change are computed over 1- and 3-month spans for the
monthly series and over 1-quarter spans for the quarterly series
(series 200 and 205). Section E5 of the basic data chart presents
the 3-month and 1-quarter rates of change from 1957 to date and the
1-month rates of change (superimposed on the 3-month changes) from
1966 to date. This chart will be updated monthly.
Historical data for the above mentioned rates-of-change series
are presented in appendix C of this issue and will be updated and
republished in this appendix at 6-month intervals hereafter.
4. Appendix C contains historical data for series 810, 811,
and 813 and historical rate-of-change for series 47, 48, 52, 54,
55, 781, and 820.
IV
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
National Income and Product
Cyclical Indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons
Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. The charts begin with 1948 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, the charts
contain shading which indicates periods of
recession in general business activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD
moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Office of Business Economics (QBE), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Personal consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories ' alued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures
the excess of exports over imports of goods
and services. Exports include both domestic output sold abroad and the contribution to production abroad made by U.S.owned resources. Imports include both
U.S. purchases of foreign output and the
contribution made to production in the
United States by foreign-owned resources.
More detail on U.S. balance of payments
is provided in section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Persona/ income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference between income and spending during an ac-
counting period. It is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
SECTION B
CYCLICAL
| INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 72
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses the same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 72 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging, Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8,
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing, Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group off indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that of the
coincident index. This facilitates compari-
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
'
1. EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(36 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDED
INDICATORS
(25 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
Comprehensive
production
(3 series)
Comprehensive incorm
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (3 series)
VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(17 series)
111. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
IV. INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(10 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins
(4 series)
Flows of money
and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
Bank Deserves
(1 s-eries)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)
Unit labor costs
(2 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Inte'est rates on
business loans
and mortgages
(2 series)
Backlog of investment
commitments
(2 series)
Investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
sons among the leading, coincident, and
lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
pf£rR*s are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D
OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com
prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
Because these data are influenced by
foreign as well as domestic conditions,
the cyclical shading has been omitted
from the balance-of-payments charts.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures
and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and
product accounts, but are not shown in
section A of this report. The defense series
included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of
defense activities, see Defense Indicators,
a monthly Bureau of the Census publication.
The price movements series consist of
consumer and wholesale price indexes and
their major components. Additional data
on prices and costs are shown in several
other sections.
SECTION E
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents diffusion indexes
for selected economic activities. Many of
the series throughout this report are aggregates compiled from a number of
components. A diffusion index is a simple
summary measure which expresses, for a
particular aggregate, the percentage of
components rising over a given timespan.
It reflects only directions of change among
the components, not magnitudes. Cyclical
changes in diffusion indexes tend to lead
those of the corresponding aggregates.
Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic,
long-term (6- or 9-month span) diffusion
indexes are shown to bring out the underlying trends and short-term (month-tomonth) indexes are shown to indicate the
most recent developments. Most of the
diffusion indexes are based on aggregate
series shown in section B, and have the
same series numbers preceded by the
letter "D". The diffusion indexes are classified according to the cyclical timing of the
aggregates to which they relate.
The final part (E4), which appears only as
a table, lists many of the components
used in computing the diffusion indexes.
Where possible, recent data for the components are shown and the month-tomonth directions of change are indicated.
SECTION F
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Basic Data
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)
20 ~**s
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("6" = June)
Roman number indicates latest
(^/quarter for which data are
/
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)
IDotted line indicates anticipated
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series, "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale H" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted IVa, 2,
or 2y2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes, ("I" =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section 0) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the "jndex—Series Finding Guide" in the back of the book where series are arranged into six
sections and various subsections. Also, in the list of "Titles and Sources of Series" which follows the Finding Guide, series are
listed in numerical order within each of the six sections, and the charts and tables in which they appear are indicated.
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
1966
1967
1968
Percent change
IstQ
2dQ
3dQ
4th Q
1968
1968
1968
1968
IstQ
2dQ
1969
3dQ
to
4th Q
4th Q
to
IstQ
IstQ
to
2dQ
1968
1969
1969
I
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al. Gross National Product
Amuate,bil,dol,,
do
1958~100
Ann. rate, dol, . ,
do...
750.0
658.1
113.9
3*807
3,341
793.5
674.6
117.6
3,984
3,388
865.7
707.6
122.3
4,302
3,517
«35.3
693.3
120*5
4,168
3,459
858.7
705.8
121*7
4,274
3,513
876.4
712.8
122.9
4,350
3*538
892.5
718.5
124.2
4,416
3,557
908.7
723.1
125.7
4*488
3,571
924.8
726*7
127-3
4*956
3,580
1*8
0.8
1.1
1*6
0.5
1.8
0.6
1*2
1*6
0.4
1.8
0.5
1.3
1.5
0*3
200
205
210
215
217
Ann.rate.bil.dol..
do
do
Disposable personal income, current dol , . .
do
Disposable personal income, constant dol
Per capita disposable personal income,
Ann. rate, dol ...
current dollars
Per capita disposable personal income,
do
620.6
587.2
511.9
458.9
654*0
629.4
546.5
477.7
714.4
687.9
590.0
497.6
688.8
664.3
575.0
492.1
707.4
680* 1
587.4
497.4
724.1
696.1
593*4
498.9
737*3
711.2
604*3
502*1
751*3
724.4
610.2
502*6
765.7
740.5
622*0
506.2
l.S
2.2
1.8
0.6
1.9
1*9
1.0
0.1
1.9
2*2
1.9
0.7
220
222
224
225
2*599
2,745
2,933
2*869
2,924
2*946
2,991
3,014
3,065
1.9
0*8
1.7
226
2*331
2*399
2*474
2,455
2,476
2*477
2,485
2,482
2,494
0.3
-0.1
0.5
227
Ann. rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
.do
do
do
do
466.3
418.1
70.8
45.4
25.3
206.9
188.6
492.3
430.3
73.0
48*1
24.9
215.1
204.2
536.6
452.6
83.3
53.2
30.2
230.6
222.8
520.6
445.6
79.5
51.1
28.4
226.1
215.1
530.3
449.0
81.8
52*6
29.2
228*5
220*0
544.9
458.2
85.8
54.1
31.7
233.3
225. 8
550. 7
457.6
86.3
54.9
31.4
234.3
230.1
562.0
462.9
88.4
57.5
30.9
238.6
235.0
572-8
466.2
90*6
59.2
31.4
242*1
240.1
1.1
-0.1
0.6
1.9
-0.9
0*4
1.9
2.1
1.2
2*4
4.7
-1.6
1*8
2.1
1.9
0.7
2.5
3.0
1.6
1.5
2*2
230
231
232
233
234
236
237
do
do
do
do
116.0
83.7
27.9
55.7
25*0
7.4
126*3
88.8
29.3
59.5
30.2
7.3
119.4
89.1
29.8
59.4
28.6
1.6
126.6
66*4
28.3
58.1
30*3
9.9
125.2
88.1
29.0
59.1
29.9
7.2
133.9
91.5
30.1
61.4
31.9
10*5
135.2
95.3
32.3
63.0
33.3
6*6
137.4
97.8
32.1
65.7
6.9
3.9
3.8
3*9
1*0
4.2
7.3
2.6
1.6
2.6
-0*6
4.3
do
121.4
81.6
28.5
53.1
25.0
14.8
6.9
3.3
0.3
240
241
242
243
244
245
do
do
do
5.3
43.4
38.1
5.2
46.2
41*0
50.6
48.1
47.7
45*9
50.7
47.3
53.4
49.7
50.6
49.4
47.6
46.1
57*1
59.5
-2.4
-5.2
-0.6
0.3
-5.9
-6.7
0.1
20.0
20*4
2 SO
252
253
do
do
do
do
156.8
77.8
60.7
79. C
180*1
90.7
72.4
89.3
200.3
99.5
78.0
100.7
193.4
96.3
76.1
97.1
198.4
99*0
77.9
99.4
202.5
100.9
78*8
101.7
206.7
101.9
79.3
104.6
210.0
101.6
79.0
108.5
212.9
100.6
78.5
112*3
2.1
1*0
0.6
3.0
1.6
-0.3
-0.4
3.5
1.4
-1.0
-0.6
3*5
260
262
264
266
200.
GNP in current dollars
205
210
215.
217
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
A2. Notional and Ptrsonal Income
220. National income, current dollars
224.
225
226.
227.
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230
Total current dollars
231
232
233
234.
236.
237
Total constant dollars
Durable goods current dollars
Durable goods exc. autos current dollars
Automobi les, current dol lars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services current dollars
240.
241.
242.
243.
244.
245
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
Gross private domestic investment, total . . .
Fixed investment, total nonresidential,
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures.
Fixed investment, producers' dur. equip. . . .
Fixed investment, residential structures . . .
Change in business inventories total . . . . .
AS. Foreign Trade
250 Net exoorts of uoods and services^
252 Exports
253 Imports
-3.9
A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260.
262
264
266
Total .
Federal
National defense
State and local
A7. Finol Sales and Inventories
270 Final sales durable goods
271. Change in business inventories, durable
274. Final sales nondurable goods
275. Change in business inventories, nondur-
A8. Hotionol Income Components
280. Compensation of employees
284 Rental income of persons
286. Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj, . .
288 Net interest
A9. Saving
290 Gross saving total
292 Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances . . . .
298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2
El. Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP can (potential less actual) 2
... do
146.2
157.0
171.4
166.4
168*9
173.7
176*6
181.6
165.5
1.7
2.8
2.1
2TO
do
do
10*5
222.3
3.9
234.1
5.3
252.3
1*9
246.5
6.8
250.4
5.1
256.1
7.4
256.4
4.8
259.7
4*9
264.1
2.3
0*1
-2.6
1.3
0.1
1.7
271
274
do
4.3
3.5
2.0
3.1
2.1
3.1
1.8
2*1
1*0
-1.3
0.3
275
do
do
do
do
do
435.5
61.3
20.0
82.4
21.4
467.4
61.9
20.6
79.2
24.7
513.6
63.8
21.2
87.9
27.9
495.1
63.2
21.1
82.5
26.7
507.0
63.6
21*2
88.2
27.5
519.8
64.1
21.2
90.6
28.4
532.3
64.1
21.4
90.3
29.3
546.0
64.6
21.5
89*5
29.8
559.2
66.5
21.6
89.2
30.3
2.4
0.0
0.9
-0.3
3.2
2.6
0*8
0*5
-0.9
1.7
2.2
2.9
0.5
-0.3
1.7
280
282
284
286
288
do
do
124.9
32.5
119.2
40.4
128.4
38.4
120.5
39.9
128.8
42.3
129.1
33.2
135*4
38.0
138.5
32.5
142*7
33*3
4*9
14*9
2.3
-14.5
3.0
2.5
290
292
27.4 ~ 24.8
68*6
63.9
1*1 -14.5
23.4
73*3
-6.7
20.4
71.7
-11.5
24.1
73.0
-10.8
25*6
73.7
-3,5
23.6
74.6
-0.9
22.3
75.9
7.8
21*3
77.2
10*9
-7.8
1.2
2*6
-5.5
1.7
8*7
-4.S
1.7
3*1
294
296
298
-7.7
-3.7
-9.4
-9.5
-8.3
-5.9
-2.4
1.2
2.4
3*5
207
do
. do
do
do
-ll.O
-1.7
-0.3
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1967
1968
4th Q
1968
IstQ
1969
2dQ
1969
Percent change
June
1969
July
1969
Aug.
1969
Jun
to
July
1969
July
to
Aug.
1969
4th Q
to
IstQ
1969
IstQ
to
2dQ
Series number |
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
1969
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Composite lnd*x«s
810, 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj. . 1963^100
..,,..do
820, 5 coincident indicators
do
LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS
do
do
do
do
do
814, Capital investment commitments
815. Inventory investment and purchasing
816 Profitability
-,,
129.5
143*2
150.9
141.4
156.6
164.8
147*7
149.9
165.8
178*9
152*4
169.2
184.9
151.7
170.9
187.3
152.0
170.7
189.9
1151.6
161*8
171*0
171.9
193.6
-0.1
104.3
107.1
101.0
114.6
106.4
114.2
101*8
116.6
192.2
107.2
118.5
102.4
118.5
104.2
107*0
118.9
103.6
118.7
101.8
107.7
118.5
105.4
118*6
102*9
107*1
117.6
104*4
117.7
102.8
106.6
117*7
106.6
116.4
99*9
NA
116.6
106*3
115*0
NA
-0*5
98.3
0*2
1*4
0*1
2.1
-1.1
-2.8
-S>*3
0.7
U9
NA
-0,9
-0*3
-1*2
NA
1.5
2.S
4*6
-0.2
0.3
1*2
0.2
1.7
2.1
3*4
810
820
830
0.7
813
814
815
816
817
-0.3
1.7
-0.1
-2.3
1.1
-0.7
-1*8
0.5
0.1
0.2
B1. Employment ond Untmptoymtnt
LEADWC INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mf|
4. Nonagri. placements, all industries, . , ,
2. Accession rate manufacturing*...
*5. Avg, weekly initial claims, Suite
unemployment insurance (inverted*)
3, Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted3)', , .
Hours
40.6
Ann. rate, thous. . 5,817
Per 100 employ . . 4.4
0*0
40.7
40.8
40.5
40.7
40.7
40.7
40.6
5*716
5,452
5.352
5*356
5,520
5,352
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.9
5.0
4*8
5,124
NA
-3.0
-0.2
194
189
183
186
201
1.1
197
1.2
196
NA
-0.1
Thousands
Per 100 employ . .
225
Thous., EOP..,.
1957-59-100 ....
348
182
373
200
373
220
365
228
383
218
383
209
358
210
345
212
131.4
65.8
70.5
134.6
136.0
68*7
137.5
139.0
139.4
70.0
73.8
70.3
74.0
139.5
70*3
140*1
69.5
73.8
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.3
3.5
3*4
3.6
3*5
2.5
2.2
2*0
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.0
-0«2
-4,3
NA
0.0
0.5
NA
3*2
0*0
-1.6
0.0
1
4
2
5
3
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT /NO/ C A TOWS
Job Vacancies:
49. Nonagri, job openings unfilled *
46. Help-wanted advertising
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Wan-hours in nonagricultural
Ann. rate, billion
establishments.
man-hours
Millions
*41 Employees on nonagri payrolls*
do
42 Persons engaged in nonagri. activities « . .
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted3)2 — Percent
45, Avg. weekly insured
unemployment
do
rate (inverted3)a
40. Unemployment rate, married mates
do
(inverted3) a
67.8
72.1
72.7
74.3
70.4
74*6
-6.5
-3.6
-2.1
0.5
1.0
3*6
0.1
0*0
0.4
0.4
0*1
0.4
1*1
1.2
1*9
-0*2
0*1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
4.9
-4.4
1.1
0.7
0.0
-0*2
0.1
49
46
46
41
42
43
45
-0*1
40
-0*1
44
LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Du/ation Unemployment:
* 44. Unemployment rate,
15 weeks and
over (inverted3)2
do
0*5
B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production:
*200. GNP in current dollars
•205. GNP in 1958 dollars
*47, Industrial production
Amuate,bil.dol..
do
1957-5^100 ....
793.5
674.6
158.1
865.7
707.6
Comprehensive Income:
*52, Personal income
Ann, rate, bit, dol.
do
53, Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr . . .
629.4
163*8
687.9
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*56 Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Final sales
*54. Sales of retail stores
1,068
786.2
314.0
107.7
207.8
117*8
.
. . do
do
do
172.7
173.8
174.6
174.3
0.5
-0,,2
1.8
0*6
1*7
1*8
0*5
1*5
200
205
47
724.4
740.6
193.5
746.1
195.3
751.4
196.0
756.6
188.5
0.7
0*4
0,7
0.7
1.9
1.9
2*2
2*7
52
S3
1*212
902.1
348*8
1*239
917.9
352.8
1,250
1,241
NA
-0.7
NA
882.0
343.4
352*5
349,9
351.9
-0.7
0*6
1.5
2.3
1.6
2.2
1*8
1.1
56
57
54
124.2
251.4
124*7
256.5
123.5
281.6
123*6
284.5
124.6
233.2
285.2
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.4
2*0
334.5
355*9
359.4
360.4
350*0
367.0
358.2
892.5
908.7
718.5
167.4
723.1
170.2
711.2
184.9
1,163
1*194
858.4
338*9
165.4
178.6
924.8
726.7
197.3
B3, Fixtd Capitol Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12, Index of net business formation.
13. New business incorporations
1957-59-100
Ann, rate, thous, .
New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries — Ann. rate, biLdol .. 302.3
8, Construction contracts, total value
1957-59-100....
155
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment , . .Ann.rate.bil.dol..
75.4
11, New capital appropriations, manufacturing.
do
23.0
24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries . .
do
63.0
9. Construction contracts, commercial
Ann.rate.mil.sq,
and industrial buildings.
ft.floor space . .
703
7, Private nonfarm housing starts
, . . .Ann. rate, thous. , It273
•29, New bldg. permits, private housing
1957-5^100....
95.6
0.8
0*2
4.9
76.2
72.6
-2.8
-4.7
1*0
2.1
0.3
0.4
1.3
793
1,498
112.9
883
1.579
118*9
912
1*692
119.8
922
1*496
116*0
949
1*446
112.0
869
1*336
102.6
864
1*323
-8.4
-0*6
3*3
99.7
-8*4
-2.8
0.8
84.07
20*02
84.07
20.02
85*16
20.48
85.91
21.54
85.91
86.37
85.78
-0.7
1.3
2.3
174
187
191
85*0
93.0
24.8
69.7
26*5
93*3
26*6
75.5
191
180
94.0
76.5
96.4
29.9
80.2
70.4
176
92.9
216
88.9
-2.2
-1.2
-2.4
22.7
-4.3
9,0
12
13
0*3
0.0
3.3
10
-1.0
12.4
4.8
1*1
-3.2
6
a
11
24
9
29
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96, Unfilled orders, durable goods industries4. Bil. dol., EOP...
97. Backlog of capital approp.,mfg.4
do
80.58
20.41
0.5
0.9
9.2
96
97
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
June
1969
July
1967
1968
4th Q
1968
61.69
64.11
65.90
68*90
70.20
76.90
82.69
86.61
90.58
90.18
7.4
7.3
10*5
6.6
6.9
6*6
10.1
12.6
10.5
11*5
8.0
44
51
43
46
50
50
1st Q
1969
2dQ
1969
Aug.
1969
1969
July
June
to
July
1969
4th Q
to
1st Q
1969
to
Aug.
1969
IstQ
to
2dQ
1969
Series number
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B3- Fixed Capitol Invt*tmtnt--Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
*61. Business expend., new plant and equip • * * Ann. rate, bil.dol.
69. Machinery and equipment sales and
do
91.86
90.14
NA
4.6
1.9
61
4.6
-0.4
69
-3.9
0.3
245
NA
-2-.1
1*0
31
0
3
4
37
2.2
NA
1.0
-0*1
20
26
-1.9
NA
B4. Inventories end Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in business
inventories, all
industries2.
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories2
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
Ann. rate, billion
do
Percent
20". Change in book value, manufacturers'
Ann. rate, billion
dollars
inventories of materials, supplies2.
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer2 ® — ftrcent
32, Vendor performance, percent reporting
do
25. Change in unfilled
oroers, durable goods Ann. rate billion
2
dollars
industries
15.6
51
NA
51
NA
7.6
1
0.1
1.4
65
64
61
59
65
66
59
63
-7
4
-2
6
44
53
56
61
69
70
66
68
*-4
2
5
8
2.6
3.5
32
25
14.0
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories *. .Bil.dol., EOP...
65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories
do
of finished goods*
143.8
153.9
153.9
156.5
159.4
159.4
160.6
NA
0.8
NA
1.7
1.9
71
26.81
29*13
29.13
29.61
30.45
30*45
30*66
NA
0*7
NA
1.6
2.8
65
100.4
97*8
99.5
105.5
110.4
111.6
112.4
101.7
99.1
94.7
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23, Industrial materials prices® . . -
1957-59=100 ....
Stock Prices:
*19, Stock prices, 500 common stocks®
1941-43=10
91.9
98*7
105.2
100.9
Profits and Profit Margins:
*16 Cor DO rate orofits after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
47.3
49.8
51.6
52.2
51.8
15. Profits (after taxes) per dot. of sales, mfg. fpnfo
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
, 1957-59=100 ....
11.9
5.0
100.7
11.4
5.1
99.2
11.4
5*1
98.7
11.3
5.0
99.8
11.1
4.9
99.9
106.3
106.7
109.0
109.4
109.9
110.3
111.4
111.7
112.2
112.8
fin Mars
0.706
0.723
0.732
0.745
0.755
1957-59=100 ....
106.0
110.3
111.8
112.0
23
94.2
-4.4
19
-0.5
-4.1
1*2
-0*8
16
• *«
-0.1
-0.1
1.1
-0*2
-0.1
0.1
22
15
17
0*8
100.0
100.2
99.2
0.2
112*2
113*2
112.4
113.5
112.8
113*6
0.2
0*3
0*4
0.1
1.4
1.3
0.7
1.0
55
58
113.0
113*2
113.3
114.5
0.1
1.1
1.8
0.2
1*3
0.9
68
62
98
85
33
113
112
110
-1.0
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, Indus, commodities ® . 1957-59=100 ....
do
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods® .
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
B6. Money ond Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in 2money supply and time
Ann. rate, percent
deposits
85. Change in money supply2 2
do
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
33. Change in mortgage debt
2
do
*113. Change in consumer installment
debt
.
.
.
do
112, Change in business loans 2
110. Total private borrowing
do
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.3)®.
do
39. Delinquency rate,
installment loans
2 4
(inverted")
Percent, EOP ...
8.8
11.8
-1.9
0.5
-0.4
-7.2
-10.1
-6.8
-2.9
-13.7
2.4
16*7
3.2
4.4
66.4
20.0
8.9
7.6
79.0
22.5
10.2
12.0
21*4
9.6
10.8
81.0
22.8
9.5
7.2
16.6
7.5
2.7
NA
NA
-5.2
-6.2
-2.0
-4.5
NA
NA
-7.9
93*0
21.6
8.3
10*3
85.7
-0.9
-1.9
-1.7
-7.8
-0.2
1.3
0.5
-3.5
1.27
0.94
0.83
1.00
1*21
1.10
1.35
0.75
-22*7
44.4
-20.5
-21.0
14
1.74
1*71
1.71
1.51
1.64
1.64
NA
NA
KA
NA
0.20
-0*13
39
194
-207
-241
-592 -1,003
-1,064
-1,074
-990
10
-84
351
411
93
4.33
6.08
5.34
6.14
7.46
5.88
5.03
6.24
6*49
7.01
8.05
6.02
6.00
0.91
8.04
6.05
5.76
7.00
8.06
0.01
-0.01
0.56
0*41
5.26
4.45
5.58
7.05
5.42
4.64
7*73
4*85
10*6
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted ^f@
Million dollars...
Money
114.
116.
115.
117.
Percent
do
do
do
Market Interest Rates:
Treasury bill rate 2 ®2
Corporate bond yields ®
Treasury bond yields22®
Municipal bond yields fib
3.94
6*84
5.91
5.43
6*07
5.75
0*02
0.02
-0.01
MUOS
0*25
0*46
0*39
0410
0.27
0*03
0.40
114
116
115
117
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1967
1968
4th Q
1968
IstQ
1969
2dQ
1969
Percent change
June
1969
July
1969
Aug.
1969
June
to
July
1969
Aug.
1969
*
4th Q
to
IstQ
1969
IstQ
to
2dQ
1969
Series nunber 1
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
B. CYCLICAL INDlCATORS-Con.
B6. Monty ood Crtdlt»Con,
LAGCWC INDICATOR*
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt4
*72 Com and Industrial loans outstanding4.
Bit. dot,, EOF...
do
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus,
loans 2®, , . Percent
do
118, Mortgage yields, residential 2 (5)
a.4
2.7
3*1
66
72
0*71
0.64
0.54
0*14
67
118
-0*5
1*2
500
79.2
65.1
88.1
72.3
88.1
72.3
90.2
74.7
92.6
77.0
92*6
77.0
93.2
76.7
MA
77.4
0.6
-0.4
6.00
6.56
6.68
7.19
6.61
7.38
7.32
8.02
7.86
8.16
8.35
8.36
8*36
0.01
40*6
-1.3
6,, 6
-11.7
30.0
502
NA
NA
0.7
8*8
-3*9
MA
NA
3.8
2.3
1.3
-10.3
6.0
ft*7
26*1
506
508
512
•10.28
3.13
-8.37
0.40
520
522
NA
0.9
0.00
3.3
0. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl, Foreign Trod*
500 Merchandise trade balance2
Ann, rate,bil,dol.,
do
502. Exports excluding military aid
506. Export orders, durable goods except motor
vehicles
do
508, Export orders, nonelectrical machinery — 1957-59=100..,.
Amuate.bil.dol..
4.1
31.0
34.1
34.3
30.3
39.4
38.6
38.1
10.8
230
26.9
12.3
241
33.1
13.1
238
34.1
13.4
241
30.6
14.2
262
38*6
14.5
283
38.3
14.6
308
36.8
0.09
1.64
3.48
1.47
38*2
02, U.S. Balance of Payments
520. Liquidity balance basis2 2
522. Official settlements basis
,
do
do
-3.54
-3.42
do
-12.7
-5.2
-0.1
13.0
9.7
3.4
600
do
151.1
176.3
187.3
198.1
202.3
S.8
2.1
601
do
do
do
do
do
do
do
163.8
72.4
81.0
26.1
42.5
NA
42.3
181.5
78.0
86.6
28.9
47.5
NA
42.3
187.4
79.3
85.6
27.1
50*0
26.6
44*4
188.5
79.0
85.5
24.2
48.9
25.2
39*6
189.3
78.5
73.5
16.7
42.8
20.6
31.7
0.4
-0.6
-14*0
-31.0
-12.5
-18.3
-19.9
602
264
616
621
647
648
625
1957-59-100 ....
do
116.3
106.1
121.2
108.7
123.3
109.5
124.8
111*2
126.9
112.6
1.7
1.3
7S1
7 SO
-6.80 -15.17
5.00
4*60
D3. Federol Government Activities
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts 2
601. Federal receipts, national income and
product accounts
602. Federal expenditures, national income
and product accounts
,,
264, National defense purchases
616. Defense Dept. obligations, total
621, Defense Dept. obligations, procurement . . .
647, New orders, defense products industries, . .
648. New orders, defense products
625. Military contract awards in U.S
9*6
19.0
NA
ffA
NA
41.3
88*2
NA
NA
NA
-10.3
-33.*
NA
0*6
-0.4
-0.1
-1,0.7
-2.2
-5*3
-10*8
128.7
113.4
0*5
0.1
0*4
0.1
1.2
1.6
0.3
Q.I
850
0.0
0.0
851
-1*8
0.6
8S2
653
NA
NA
69*2
17.1
34.4
15.2
31.4
NA
NA
48.6
28*6
NA
43*6
127.6
113*2
128.2
113.3
04. Price Movements
781, Consumer prices, all items ®
750, Wholesale prices, all commodities <g>
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2, Analytical Ratios
850, Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2. .
851, Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing
and trade
Ratio
852, Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs.'
do
durable goods industries
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
1957-59-100 ....
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
personal income
Ratio
855. Ratio, nonagri cultural job openings
do
858, Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm. * 1957-59-100....
856, Real average hourly earnings, production
workers, manufacturing
* . 1957-59 dollars..
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
do
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. •
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing 2 ® • •
85.3
84.5
84.2
84.5
84.6
1.58
1.54
1.54
1.54
1.54
1*53
1.55
NA
1.3
NA
3.48
3.31
3.26
3.20
3.22
3.17
3.20
NA
0*9
NA
121.5
120.8
120.8
123.3
118.4
118.8
118.7
121.1
0.074
0.065
0.063
0.053
0.054
0.121
129.9
0.133
134.2
0.139
135.8
0.139
135.0
0.137
134*6
0.139
2.43
2.48
2.50
2.50
2.48
78.08
6.2
78.53
5.4
78.54
4.9
78.29
5.0
78.24
5*1
0*124
0.120
2.48
2.50
2.50
78.27
78.03
78.29
-0.6
-10*8
0.6
-0*3
-oa
2*0
-15.9
1.9
854
0.0
-0.6
-1.4
-0.3
855
358
0.0
0.0
-0.8
056
0*3
-0.3
0.1
-0.1
0*1
659
857
0.0
-3.2
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by <g>, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. * Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators,
NA = not available,
a = anticipated.
EOP = end of period.
l
ln many cases, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits or are in different units than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual
figures are those published by the eouree ageneies or they are rounded from published figures; otherwise they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series)
are averages or totals of the data as shown in part II.
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
Inverted series. Sinee this series tends to move counter to movements in general "business activity, signs of the ehanges are reversed.
*End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart
Al
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July) (Apr,}
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P I
P
T
dollars, Q (am. rate, ttious.dol.)
capita GNP in 1958 dollars,
(am. rate, thous. dol.)
1948 49
50
51
S2
53
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.
BCD
SEPTEMBER 1969
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
68
69 1970
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Section A
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
(Nov.) (Oot)
P
T
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
220. National teeome, current doiw^i Q (am, rate, ft dol.)
222. Pupial income, current oottars, Q
rate, ft dot)
224. Disposable personal income, current
(Jolars, Q (m ratet bit dol.)
229. Disposal* personal incom*, 1958 dollars,
Q (ana nH;ibil dot)
Per caprta ifeposatote personal income, cuirefit doflars,
Q (ami rate, ftous. dol.]
227. Nf capita disposals personal income, 1998 dollars,
G {am. rate, ttwus. &1)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1070
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.
10
SEPTEMBER 1969
ltd)
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Section A
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(luly)
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars
Personal consumption expenditures230. Total, current dollars, Q
231. Total, 1958 dollars, Q
232. Durable goods, total, current dollars, Q
233. Durable goods, total excluding automobiles,
((
current dollars, Q
234. Automobiles, current dollars, Q
236. Nondurabte goods, total, current dollars, Q
total, current dollars, Q
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
63
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.
SEPTEMBER 1969
11
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A4
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
(July}
P
{Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Annual rate, billion dollars current)
6ro$s private domestic Investment240. Total, Q
~~—~~ J 70 -
241. Nonresident fixed investment, total Q
242. Nonresidential structures, Q
243. Producers' durable
244. Residential structures, Q
in business inventories, u
1948 49
SO
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
63
i9 1970
Current data for those series are shown on page 65.
12
SEPTEMBER
1969
ItCIt
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
FOREIGN TRADE
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
252. Exports of goods and services, Q
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 66.
SEPTEMBER
1969
13
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
(Nov.) {Oct.}
P
(July)
P
T
(Ally) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current]
260. Federal, Sin*, and tocal governments,
262, Federal Government, Q
264. National defense, Q
266. State aril tocal governments, Q
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 197(3
Current data for these serfes are shown on page 66.
14
SEPTEMBER 1969
BCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars [current]
270. Final sales, durable goods , Q
*
business inventories, durable goods, Q
in business inventories, nondurable goods, Q
1948
49
50
51
52
113
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series 'are shown on page 66.
ltd)
SEPTEMBER 1969
15
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
.__„> 700
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
280. Compensation of employees, Q
282. Propnrtocs' income, Q
284. Rental income of persons, Q
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment, Q
288, Net interest, Q
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
Current data for these series ore shown on pages 66 and 67.
16
SEPTEMBER
1969
BCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A9
SAVING
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
290. Gross saving (private and government)
A.
294. Undistributed corporate profits phis inventory valuation adjustment, 0
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
I»U) SEPTEMBER 1969
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
Mr) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.}
P
T
workweek, produeHo* workers,
^industries (tttougipp
Accession rtt% f |put»ctort»£ (per iro
insurance (thousaods-inv&rted scale
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for those series are shown on page 68.
18
SEPTEMBER
1969
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
. Nonagncultural job opening; unfilled (thousands)
Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957-59=100)
48, Man-hours in nonagricuitur; i establishments (aw. rate, bit. man-hours)
*4t. Employees on nonagricurtural payrolls [millions}
Persons engaged in nonagrieulturai activities (millions)
' " ',
';
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on pages 68 and 69.
ltd)
SEPTEMBER 1969
19
Section B
Chart
Bl
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
3-
. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale)
56-
245. Average weekly I mired unemploymnrtrate
3-
5-
67J
2-
4-
5-
Lagging Indicators
, Unemployment rate^|W0ofis uremptoy&a 1$ weeks and over (percent-inverted scate)
O-i
123J
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 19/0
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
20
SEPTEMBER
1969
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr)
P
T
(Hay) (Feb.)
P
T
1000950
900
850
800750-
iHiiiiiiiiaiiaiMiTOjronnmia
*200. GNP in current dollars, Q (ana rate, bit. dot.)
X"
700650-
53. Wages are) Varies in mining, manufacturing,
1948
; i i, f 1 . . . . r- ) i } ; ji A • , ~ u t - j t j , : i.
49 50 51 52 53 54 55
, -'L i
56
- j j t , 'i '. .'L i .• > jot
57 58 59 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
NOTE: For this economic process (I.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging Indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
SEPTEMBER 1969
21
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Dot)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
*S6. Manufacturing and trade sates (bit. do).)
57, Final sales Iswtes 200 minus series 245)
L..JI .j. i\
un_jt_:H ,\ ,i •
1948 49
50
'
, • ; • , ,
51
52
>
1
;
.-jbJLJL_j<-
53
54
; .. ....;(...;, .,s.j
55
56
JV..-K. ^-JU^JLJL. ;,.,;i ._\ ! ' ;:. ;,..:t...,: JI_JLJL-,\.. • : . . - . . /
57
58
59
60
61
,. -. :,...-
62
- \ .-. ;.,.; . • . ,
63
64
.
65
66
67
138
69 1970
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
22
SEPTEMBER 1969
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
»)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
*12. Net business formation (index: 1957-59=100]
potations thousands)
*6. New orders, durable goods industries (bit. dol.)
8. Construction contracts, total value (index: 1957-59=100
M$0 moving avg.-5-tejmj1
and orders, plant and equipment (bil. dol.)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
V
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without wrinen permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
SEPTEMBER 1969
23
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing;
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) {Oct}
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bit, dol.j
24. New orders, miUiineiy and equipmwt industries (ML
-~
,
9. Construction contracts, commercial aod industrial (mil. sq. ft
starts jann. rate.mjpons; MCQ moving avg-5-term|
g units (index: 1957^59=100)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
<>8
69 1970
1
This I* a copyrighted *«rl«s uttd by ptrmlMlon; It may not b* reproduced without written permits Ion from McCramHIII Information Syttems Company. F.W. Dodge Olvlllon.
Current data for these serlet are shown on pages 71 and 72.
24
SEPTEMBER 1969
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart
B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
96. Manufacturers' unftWed orders, durable goods industries [bit. dol.j
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, a (bit. dot.)
1
.,
|
i'
_ ,1 . . .
Lagging Indicators
Investment Expenditures
807060-
5040-
30120
100-
80-
. Machinery and equipment
expenditures |ann. rate, bit. dol.)
.L-U-Avt
.
'..
60-
x_...-,-.......-.-.-.• r.^r...tJi-,---
40-
' j. ju JLlkJUJui i> I - i i - ''..JL/J-J1
j-jJLJUuLdTj •
1948 49
53
50
51
52
54
^.jj^ _i ' Ju-lUlJ , _ • '. j j • JUUL , '_
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
,
62
[
'
i
63
1
'
j
64
• '
65
'_•
^ '
66
67
j ^(
63
'
'
]
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
~ SEPTEMBER 1969
25
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B4
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct)
P
T
245,, Change in business inventories, aN industries, Q (ann. rate,
*3t Cfcsnge in book vatee^! manufacturing and trade inventories
ann. rate, bil, dol4 MOO moving avg,-5-term)
SEifychased matpfidte, percentof companies reporting higher inventories
™__ -
3& fflange In book yateij manufacturers/ inventories of materials and supples;
inn. rate, bil. dot; MOD moving avg,~6-term)
H* lirying policy, pco&e&Hi materials, percent of companies
porting commitiwtsts 60 days or longer
1948
49
§0
SI
51
53
54
55
§6
57
§§
59
60
61
62
$3
64
65
6i
67
68
69
Current data for theso series arc shown on page 73.
26
SEPTEMBER 1969
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Mly) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
T
ir
companies reporting slower deliveries
, durable gooffs industries
ntoving avg.-4-term} i!
Lagging Indicators
, Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (bit. dol.)
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories; finished goods [fail, dol
1948 49
50
§1
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
69 1970
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
SEPTEMBER 1969
27
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B5
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May} (Feb.)
T
P
T
Sensitive Commodity Prices
160 i
140-
*23. industrial materials prices (Nex: 1957-59-100)
XJ
120100-
80-
*19, Stock prices, 500 common tt«*s (index: 1941-43=10]
after taxes, Q |m. rate, bil. dol,)
profits (after taxes) to Income originating,
Q ioercentl
dote of sates. TOjmjfactuhng. Q [cents]
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (Mex; 1957-59-100)
1948 49
§0
§1
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series arc shown on page 74.
28
SEPTEMBER 1969
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
120-i
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices
115110-
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities [index: 1957-59=100)
105100-
95-
120-i
115110-
58, Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (index: 1957-59=100)
105100-
959085-
Lagging Indicators
0.800.75-
88. labor cost (cur, dol.) per unit of real corporate gross product, Q (dollars]
0.700.65125120115-
cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1957-59=100)
110105100-
959085-
80 J
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
SEPTEMBER 1969
29
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
MONEY AND CREDIT
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(July} (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
Flows of Money and Credit
j 96. Change in money supply and time deposits [arm. rate, percent;
MOD moving avg.-6-term|
85. Change in mwey supply (ann. rate, percent MCD moving avg.-B-term)
33. Change in mortgage debt (arm. rate, bil. dol.)
instateveat debt (ana rate, bit doJ.)
112. Change in business Joans (ann. rate, bit. dol.;
httO movta
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
SO
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
66
@9
1970
Currant data for these terles are shown on page 75.
30
SEPTEMBER
1969
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
110. Total private borrowing, Q (arm. rate, bil.
14. Liabilities of business failures [mil. do!.- inverted scale;
39, Defoiquency rate, 30 days and over, total installment loans
(percent-inverted scate)
1.5-
2.0-
2.5 •
1948 49
50
51
52
§3
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
©6
©7
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
ItCII
SEPTEMBER 1969
31
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
B6
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
93. Fral reserves toil, dol,
Treasury W I rate (percent)
116. Corporate bond yields (percent)
bond yields (percent)
117. Municipal bond yields (percent]
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
1970
Current data for these series aro shown on page 76.
32
SEPTEMBER
1969
IICII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
{Aug.}
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
Outstanding Debt
66. Consumer installment debt (ml dol.)
*72. Commercial and industrial toans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks (bil. dot.)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business toans, Q (percent)
II
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
SEPTEMBER
1969
33
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
COMPOSITE INDEXES
(July) (Apr.J
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
810.
(May) {Feb.}
P
T
Twelve lewJinfiindKatofs,reversetrend adjusted '
(series ijji t, 1ft, 12,16,1>, IS, 23, 29, 31, 113)
820. Five ctfcMdefrt indicators, esttfwated aggregate
worHxnic activity (s&nes 41, 43, 47, 52, 56)
^ix lagging Wicatm series 44, 61, 62, 67f 71, 72)
. JUlJUl .
1948 49
50
., JLJUl,,.;•...; ..: _; „ ..JiJL___
57 58 59 60 61
64
65
/
66
67
6ft
69 19 0
Current data tor these sarles are shown on page 77. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + } In months from reference turning date*.
1 Reverse trend adjusted Index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident Indicators.
34
SEPTEMBER 1969
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.
(Hov.) (Oct.)
P
T
1948 49
50
51
52
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
53
54
(July) (Apr.)
P T
55
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current dota for these series are shown an pa»e 77.
SEPTEMBER 1969
35
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
{May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
*1. Average worfcwwt, production workers, manufacturing (hours)
*5. Average weekly initial
, State unemployment insurance (thousands-inverted scale)
Net business formation (index: 1957-59-100)
New orders durable goods
and orders, plant and equipment
•29. New buying permits, private housing unrts (index: 1957-59=1001
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
63
66
67
68
69 1970
Current doto for these series qre shown on pages 68, 7], and 72.
36
SEPTEMBER
1969
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(My)
(Aug.)
IF
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10}
*16. Corporate
profits after taxes, Q aim. rate, W. dot)
1
... i
i
i
, *17. Ratio, price to urtft labor cost, manufacturing (index:
in i €on$j$i it installment, dejSj^fayin.
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on pages 73, 74. and 75.
BCII SEPTEMBER 1969
37
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July} (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
*200. GNP is current rtoSafs, Q (ana rate, Wi. rtoi.)
poxJuction (index: 1957-59-100
*52. PersooaJ income (am. rate, W, dot)
*56. Ma&ufacturmg and trade
*54« Sates of retafl stout H doll
*41. Employed en nonagricurtural pa/rote [rnWonsj
1948 40
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
60 1970
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.
38
SEPTEMBER 1969
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B8
IMBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Selected Indicators by Timing
Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Fat)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
T
P
T
*44» Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q [ann, rate, bil. dot.)
*~*w~w"
" ' r'
"""•"'" " i " ' "^
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. dot.)
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1957-59-100)
*72 Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
large commercial banks (bil. dol.j
*67.Bank rates on short-term
/TV!
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
6§
€6
67
€S
1970
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 72, 73, 74, and 76.
BCII SEPTEMBER
1969
39
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
(July)
P
(May)
P
(Apr.)
T
(Feb.)
T
io
no
expemlitures for new plant
all mdustr'KJs, Q |
.__B_
TO-
GO-
(a) Actual expwdtwes
i rate, m. !jtol)
40-
110-
|b) Second antkr^tioos as
percent of actual [pwc«rt]
m
>.T;.T.Tf!i
•,'U
105 -
100-
15-
113'
(c] First anttcipations as
percent of acttial (pofcent)
I'l^l^
1957
58
59
60
61
63
64
65
66
H'n
ilJjH
67
68
100 H
69
70
19711
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
40
SEPTEMBER 1969
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
(July)
P
(May)
P
(Apr.)
I
(Fib.)
T
Actual
200 T
»
flnttrinaterl»
180-
160'
410. .Manufacturers' sates, total value, Q (bit dot.;
412. Manufacturers' inventories, total
book value, Q Ibil.dol.)
40 T
1,
1
30-
414. Condition of manufacturers' inventories:
percent considered Nigh less percent
considered low, Q (percent)
20-
10-
0-
50 n
416. Adequacy of manufacturers1 capacity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
e. 0 (percent}
__
40-
30' - J _' .J
1957
J1!
58
59
Sl_
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1S71
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
ltd)
SEPTEMBER 1969
41
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
(July)
(Apr.)
P
T
(May)
P
(Feb.)
T
fActual
^—/]
Anticipated • ..-.* {
la}
of hous$hokte reporting no change in family income (percent)
oo40-
Percent of households reporting higher family income (percent)
30-
| Percent of households reporting tower fgmHy income (percent)
0-"
. Mean probabity of
changes in income of households, Q
[a] Mfiafl prfihahilfty nf wmajM In fantly jncflmt
[hi Incffiase less dscraase lotfcentl
id Mean probabitv of dMfM» in tamtfv jncom
1110[430.
L
Number of new carsjyjjbed by households. Q
lann. rate, ml. cirsf
*
[a] Actual (quarterly)
Actual. 2-quartw moving avg.
(d) Anticipations as percent of i^
1957
§8
59
60
01
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
42
SEPTEMBER
1969
ItCII
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES
{*«
(Apr.)
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
P
T
Diffusion indexes: p#tf rising
(plotted at terrn^al pitfter)
100 T
New orders, manufacturing 14*0 span]
75 -
50-
25tOOT
0442. Het profits, manufacturing and trade [4-Q span)1
75-
50-
25 J
100 n
1
D444 Met sales, manufacturing and trade [441 span)
75-
50-
25 75s
1
0446. Number «f employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)
50-
28-1
11957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1971
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
I This Is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
BCII SEPTEMBER
1969
43
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(May)
P
(Feb.)
T
OCU
(plotted at twmM g^w
Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-0 span]1
75-
prk;eSl mwufactjrinfi and trade (4^1 span)1
15-
75Seing prices, manufacturing (4-0 span)
7SJUKI, SeWng prfces, wholesale trade |4-Q span)
50 J
100-
Selling prices, retaN trade (4-0 span)1
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
69
7©
1971
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
1
This Is a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without wrinen permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
44
SEPTEMBER
1969
BCII
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(My)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
j"T '/'If
ffftisfon indexes: percent rfefcig
ptetted at terminal quarter]
(Apr.)
T
D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, at) industries (1-Q span)
(a) Actual expenditures
+0.5 T
480. Change in freight cartoadings (4-Q span)
(millions of cars)
0-
-0.5 J
1957
58
59
CIO
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
70
1971
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.
SEPTEMBER 1969
45
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
[Chart Dl
FOREIGN TRADE
(Nov.) (Oct)
P
T
(July!
(Aug.)
P
T
(Mayj (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
P
T
T
trade balance (bit &*:> MCD moving a^-^term)
K,l i :: 1 ., . •».
502. &Pt&r <xcept military aid (fait
506. Export or*»rsf durables except swtor v&hteles
(till d^i^lCD moving avg.^
|]i|iQft orders, noiwtectricaJ miifiiliiry
|M m 1957-59=100; MCD mm
tvg.-ftwm)
512, Gwwa4 Imports mllii MCD tnovta avt.-4
jU.Ji jL.!U..iLJL.Ll.: it i... .UlJiJLlL.n • Ji ' J J '
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
i i i ' j jUUU _ ' 'i
56
57
58
'
59
. ' JJUU. ^ I
€0
61
'
'
62
,
63
64
>
65
66
•..,.'...
67
68
.
'.
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
46
SEPTEMBER 1969
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
520. Liquidity balance basis
[Change ft U.S. official reserve assets and c
in liquid liabilities to all foreigners)
522. Official settlements basis
{Change ii U.S. official reserve assets, arid change
in fouk) liabitrties plus certain fMnlwid liabilities
to foreign monetary official agencies]
Annual rate, billion dollars
—16
Excess of receipts (inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
- -6
Net capital movements, liquidity balance
basis1 (Outflow H left scale)
250. Balance on goods and services
(surplus (+) right scale)/
- 0
L +4
r-12
(outflow (-} left scale)
•-8
522-Official settlements
Balance on goods and services
(surplus |+) right scale)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
€7
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on patge 82. Annual totals are used prior to 1960 except for series 520.
1 Includes unilateral transfers and errors and omissions.
SEPTEMBER
1969
47
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
40
Major Components, Except Military Grants
of Goods and Services-Con.
IjBllion dollars |
36
n
32
930. Liquid liabilities to all foreigners, outstanding at end of period
24-
20
12-
532, Liquid and certain nwibqukl HabiHtfes to
foreign official ageficles, outstanding at end of period
24 ^
534. U.S. official reserve assets-reserve position at end of period
20
16-
4
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
S3
12J
6® 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 82. End of year figures are used prior to 1960.
48
SEPTEMBER 1969
BCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
58*
Goods and Services Movements,
Except Transfers Under Military Grants
Annual rate, billion dollars]
52-
48-
^2 Excess of receipts
CD Excess of payments
44 -
40-
40 =
250. Balance on goods and services
28*
24 «
20-
12Investment income, military
and expenditures, and
1948 4©
50
§1
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
66
67
68
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 82. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
SEPTEMBER 1969
49
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Investment Income, Military Sates
and Expenditures, and Other Services
| Annual rate, bllkm dollars
Excess of receipts (inflow)
EZ3 Excess of payments (outflow]
Investment income*
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.
Travel4-.
U.S. travelers abroad
545. Payments by U.
\
544. Receipts
eipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.
aod exceMturss547. U.S. military expenditures abroad
546. Military sates to foreigners
«s
M
Transportation and other services 4-
1948 48
50
51
S2
53
54
55
56
57
58
SS
6©
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
Si
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Amuat totals are used prior to 1960.
50
SEPTEMBER 1969
ItCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital movements plus Government
nonmilitary unilateral transfers
Annual rate, billion dollars
£53 Excess of receipts (inflow)
121 Excess of payments (outflow!
Direct investments-
561. U.S. investments abroad
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
Securities investments-
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
+4 =
—^
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net
1948 49
50
51
Sa
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
6©
SI
197®
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to I960,
IICII SEPTEMBER
1969
51
Section D
Chart
D3
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
| FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May} (Feb.)
P T
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, bit. dot.]
601. Federal receipts, national tocotae and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot]
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, bfl. dot.)
1948 49
50
SI
52
53
54
55
56
57
§8
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
88
Current data for these series arfl shown on page 84.
52
SEPTEMBER
1969
BCD
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D3
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
10090HO70-
60-
264. National defense purchases, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
§0.
987-
616. Defense Department
ii obligations, total |bil.
u dol.;' MCD moving avg.-6-term) * ,
6-
621. Defense Department obligations, procurement —--T-T
M
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
*
4-=
647. New orders, defense products industries
[bit. dot.; MCD moving avg.~6-term)
3-
J48,New orders,
defense -^
products
[bil. dol.) 1
U
51
[bil. dol • MCD moving avg.-6-term)
JUU' jLaJlJl i, \ i,
1948 49
50
', < <[ i ' . _Ju' L
51
52
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
©7
S8
69
1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 84
SEPTEMBER
1969
53
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
PRICE MOVEMENTS
(Nov.) (Dei)
duty}
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
13513012012Q<
I
V)
110-
12Q-
115-
120°
14® '
10 =
,
49
SO
51
!
JlJLliJl
S3
S4
"IT
,
SS
_AJUl
56
9?
I
Si
S0
©1
64
©S
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
54
SEPTEMBER 1969
BCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Del)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P I
(May) (Feb.)
P I
joa,
120 =
m110-
Wholesale prices—
750. Ail cofTtrjiodities
105.'
100, ,
§4
BCII SEPTEMBER
1969
55
§6
§7
58
59
60
61
1970
55
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(Nov.) pet)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
I
{July} (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.
T
P
I
§20 H
400-
1948 4®
50
51
S2
93
54
SS
S6
B7
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
6§
66
67
i$B
6S 197©
Current data for those so riot are shown on page 86.
1
Trend lino of 3-1/2 percent per year through middle of t955 from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3-3/4 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percont thereafter.
56
SEPTEMBER 1969
ItCII
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
(Nov.) (Oct)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
f
T
(May) (Feb.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing, Q (percent)
^^^ ««*-^K———-
'-M-M-™*-*--*.--*.
-^-^-^—*-*.«
"I IBspiff; unfflleofoiiefs tolshipiiints, V
.I
manufacturers' durable goods industries
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer good
i-i, JuJL. ^ •
JUU)
1948 49
5©
51
51
53
S4
58
59
60
@i
JL j
03
64
1970
Current data far these series are shown on page 87.
IECJ) SEPTEMBER 1969
57
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
ANALYTICAL RATIOS—Con.
to.)
P
(July)
(Oet.)
I
(Aug.)
P
(July) (Apr.)
I
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
I
0.10
854, Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income, Q
(US N.OO
(0.0403.20855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled to number of persons unemployed
tue •
cuo-
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm, Q (index: 1957-59-100)
D
856. Real average hourly earnings, production workers,
manufacturing (1957-59 duflarst
spendable average weekly earnings, nonagricultural
pwttacTSTbr norowpervisfcry woTkers (11957
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing, Q (percent)
§©
SI
S3
94
§5
56
57
58
§9
6©
61
62
63
64
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
58
SEPTEMBER 1969
BCII
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E3
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
(My)
1?
(Nhv.) fltefL
P
I
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
F T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Percent rising
01, Avfltagb workweek, production wooers, manufacturing-21 industries (9-mo. span— , 1-mo. span-H
100
§0°
06. New orders, durable goods industries*36 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-
011. Newly approved capital appropriations-17 industries, NICB (3-Q span»~, 1-Q sparw.]
034. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profits-about 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-Q
019. Stock prices, 500 common stocks-?? industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
023. Industrial materials prices-13 industrial materials (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—
05. Initial claims, State unemployment insurance-47 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)
1948 4®
54
5S
56
57
58
59
60
Current data for these series are shown on pages 88 and 89.
BCD
SEPTEMBER 1969
59
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E3
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct)
P
T
(Aug.!
T
(May) (Feb.)
P I
(JuW (Apr.)
P T
Percent rising
041. Employees on nonagricuttufaipayrolls-30 industries (6-mo. span*-, 1-mo. span—)
1001
D47. Industrial production-24 industries (6-mo. span — t 1-mo. span—]
058. pwtesate prices, manufactured goods-22 industries (6-mo. span—f 1-mo. span
D54. Sales of retail stores-23 types of stores (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span
49
SO
51
Si
S3
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
©3
64
65
67
@B
69 1970
Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
60
SEPTEMBER
1969
ltd*
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
RATES OF CHANGE
(July)
P
(May)
P
(Apr.)
T
{Fib.}
T
200. (c) 6NP in current dollars (1-Q span)
205. [cj GNP Ki constant dollars J1-Q span)
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators (series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56)
48. Man-hours in mm agricultural establishments
+40-
47. Index of industrial production
> v*s
^-^^S2^^Z^^C^]^^^
JL
+30+20 =
+10-
0 =
-10 =
=20 +10-
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
+5= ,
x/^nrx/
V'
>r
^\r
=5 =
+10 =
781. Index of consumer prices, all items
+§-
0=
!
_(L_Jl_A
1957
'
58
JL_'l.Ji..
59
SO
'
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
7©
1971
To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult 'Index—Series Finding Guide/ pp, 113 and t (4
IMJI SEPTEMBER 1969
61
Section
DM
Fr.
£
F
'LJt.
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
CONSUMER PRICES
Hw,) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
f
(Aug.)
I
!My) {Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Consumer prtces781. United States
S©
SI
S2
53
§4
9S
S9
6©
61
6S
Si
6?
61
69 10?©
Current data for the« «erl«» are «hown on pag* 97.
62
SEPTEMBER 1969
Section F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart F2
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
1948 49
SO
51
52
53
54
§5
56
57
58
59
60
61
B2
1970
Currant data for the*e lerlas ore shown on page 98.
~ SEPTEMBER
1969
63
Section F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
STOCK PRICES
49
5©
51
52
S3
§4
59
S6
57
58
59
61
$2
63
64
65
66
67
68
6© 197©
Current data for these serlet ore shown on page 99.
64
SEPTEMBER 1969
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
200. Current dollars
a. Total
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.,
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
205. Constant (1958) dollars
a. Total
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
(Ann. rate,
bif.dol.)
210. Implicit price deflator
b. Difference c. Percent
change
(Ann. rate, at annual
bil. dol.) rate
a. Total
b. Difference
(Index:
1958=100)
(Index:
1958=100)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
729.5
743.3
755.9
770.7
+19.5
+13.8
+12.6
+14.8
+10.8
+7-6
'+6.8
+8.0
649.1
655.0
660.2
668.1
+12.5
+5.9
+5.2
+7.9
+8.0
+3.6
+3.2
+4.8
112.4
113.5
114.5
115.4
+0.9
+1.1
+1.0
+0.9
+3.2
+4.0
+3.6
+3.2
774.2
783.5
600.4
816.1
+3.5
+9.3
+16.9
+15.7
+2.0
+4.8
+8.8
+8.0
666.5
670.5
678.0
683.5
-1.6
+4.0
+7.5
+5.5
-0.8
+2.4
+4.4
+3.2
116.2
116.9
118.1
119.4
+0.8
+0.7
+1.2
+1.3
+2.8
+2.4
+4.0
44.4
835.3
858.7
876.4
892.5
+19.,2
+23.4
+17.7
+16.1
+9.6
+11.2
+9.8
+8.4
+7.2
693.3
705.8
712.8
718.5
+12.5
+7.0
+5.7
+5.6
+7.2
+4.0
+3.2
120.5
121.7
122.9
124.2
+1.1
+1*2
+1.2
+1.3
+3.6
+4.0
+4.0
+4.4
908.7
924.8
+16.2
+16.1
+7.2
+7.2
723.1
726.7
+4.6
+3.6
+2.4
+2,0
125.7
127-.3
+1.5
+1.6
+4.8
+5.2
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter.,
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter.,
GROSS NATIONAL
PRO DUCT-Con.
Year
and
quarter
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
215. Per capita 217. Per capita
GNP, constant
GNP, current
dollars
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
220. National
income in cur*
rent dollars
(Ann. rate;
bil. dol.)
222. Personal
income in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
227. Per capita,
constant(1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
3,720
3,780
3,833
3,895
3,310
3,331
3,347
3,377
603.2
615.0
626.9
637.3
570.3
580.7
592.9
605.0
499.9
506.0
515.9
525.6
453.5
454.7
461.2
466.1
2,549
2,574
2,616
2,656
2,313
2,313
2,339
2,356
3,903
3,940
4,014
4,080
3,360
3,372
3,400
3,418
639.3
646.2
658.5
672.0
615.2
622.2
634.5
645.9
534.4
541.6
550.3
559-8
471.6
476.0
479.4
483.7
2,694
2,724
2,760
2,799
2,378'
2,394
2,404
2,419
4,168
4,274
4,350
4,418
3,459
3,513
3,538
3,557
688.8
707.4
724.1
737.3
664.3
680.1
696.1
7H.2
575.0
587.4
593-4
604.3
492.1
497.4
498.9
2,869
2,924
2,946
502.1
2,991
2,455
2,476
2,477
2,485
4,488
4,556
3,571
3,580
751-3
r765.7
724.4
•740.5
610.2
622.0
502.6
506.2
3,014
3,065
2,482
2,494
1968
First quarter..,
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter ,
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter,
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary^
^"/estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
ltd) SEPTEMBER
1969
65
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Year
and
quarter
230. Total in
current dollars
231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
232. Durable goods, 233. Durable goods, 231 Automobiles
in current dollars
total except autos,
total in current
in current dollars
dollars
(Ann. ratet
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollais
(Ann. rste,
bii. dol.)
237. Services in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
71.2
68.5
71.3
71.9
44.4
44.5
46.2
46.5
24.0
25.1
25.4
202.6
206.4
209.6
209.1
183.9
186.9
190.2
46.9
47.6
47.9
50.0
23.1
25.9
25.4
25.2
213.2
214.4
215.8
216.8
197.7
201.8
434.3
70.0
73.5
73.3
75.2
520.6
530.3
544.9
550.7
445.6
449.0
458.2
457.6
79.5
81.8
85.8
86.3
51.1
52.6
54.1
54.9
28.4
29.2
31.7
31.4
226.1
215.1
228.5
233.3
234.3
220.0
225.8
562.0
572.8
462.9
466.2
88.4
90.6
57.5
59.2
30.9
31.4
238.6
457.8
461.9
471.2
474.5
415.3
415.1
421.3
480.9
489.8
495.7
$02.6
424.4
430.5
420.7
26.8
193.5
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
431.9
206.6
210.6
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
230.1
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
235.0
240.1
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
240. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
241. (Presidential
fixed investment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
242. Nonresidential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
243. Producers1
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
244. Residential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot,)
245. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
First quarter. . <
Second quarter.
Third quarter.,
Fourth quarter..
117.5
122.4
119.6
126.2
78.8
80.3
83.0
84.2
28.6
28.2
29.0
28.2
50.2
52.1
54.0
56.0
27.4
26.0
24.7
22.1
+11.3
+16.2
+H.9
+19.9
1X3.6
109.4
117.7
123.3
83.3
83.0
83.5
85.0
29.0
27.2
27.8
27.8
54.2
55.8
55.7
57.2
21.4
23.1
26.5
23.8
+9.0
+3.4
+7.8
+9.5
119.4
126.6
125.2
133.9
89.1
86.4
88.1
91.5
29.8
28.3
29.0
30.1
59.4
58,1
59.1
61.4
2,9.6
30.3
29.9
31.9
+1.6
+7.2
+10.5
135.2
137.4
95.3
97.8
32.3
32,1
63.0
65,7
33.3
32.7
+6.6
+6,9
1967
First quarter,.,
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First Quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
+9.9
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; V, preliminaiy;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
66
SEPTEMBER 1969
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
B
Q FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
252. Exports
of goods and
services
253. Imports
of goods and
services
260. Total
262 . Federal
264. . National
defense
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.);
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann, fate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
+5.6
+4.4
+4.9
42.2
42.7
43.7
44.8
36.0
37.1
39.3
39.9
148.0
153.4
160.7
165.2
72.8
75.6
80.5
82.1
55.3
58.5
63.3
65.6
75.2
77.7
80.1
83.0
+5.4
+5.8
+5.6
+3.8
45.8
45.9
46.3
46.7
40.4
40.1
40.7
42.8
174.2
178.5
181.3
186.4
87.8
90.3
91.3
93.5
69.9
71.9
73.0
74.6
86.4
88.1
90.0
92.9
+1.9
+3.4
+3-6
+1.2
47.7
50.7
53.4
50.6
45.9
47.3
49.7
49.4
193.4
198.4
202.5
206.7
96.3
99.0
100.9
101.9
76.1
77.9
78.8
79.3
97.1
99-4
101.7
104.8
+1.5
+•1.6
47.6
57.1
46.1
55.5
210.0
212.9
101.6
.100.6
79.0
78.5
108.5
112,3
+6.2
First Quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1967
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
Q FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
Nondurable goods
Durable goods
270, Final sales
(Ann. rate,,
oil. dot.)
1966
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter. ....
142.2
142.6
U8.1
151.8
271, Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
oil. dol.)
+8.2
+10.6
+10.2
+13.2
274. Final sales 275. Change in
business Inventories
(Ann, rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
biJ. dol.)
H
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
280. Compensation
of employees
282. Proprietors'
income
284. Rental income
of persons
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rale,
bil. dot.)
217.6
220.9
225.3
225.4
+3.1
+5.6
+1.7
+6,7
420.1
430.9
441.4
449.7
62.1
61.2
61.1
60.8
19.6
19.8
20.1
20.3
1967
151-9
158.3
157-7
160.0
+4.2
+1.5
+4.4
+5.6
230.7
234.2
235.5
235.9'
+4.7
+1.8
+3.4
+3.9
456.2
461.1
470.7
481.7
60.8
61.7
62.6
62.3
20.6
20.820.9
21.0
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
1,66.4
168.9
173.7
176.6
+1.9
+6.8
+5.1
+7.4
246.5
250.4
256.1
256.4
-0.3
+3.1
+2.1
+3-1
495.1
507.0
519.8
532.3
63.2
63.6
64.1
64.1
21.1
21.2
21.2
21.4
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter.
181.6
185-5
+4.8
i*.9
259.7
264.1
+1.8
+2.1
546.0
558.2
64.6
66.5
21.5
21.6
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter ....
Fourth quBrter ....
1968
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
ltd*
SEPTEMBER
1969
67
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
H
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
1966
First Quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third Quarter.
Fourth quarter
1967
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third Quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
Q| SAVINGJN CURRENT DOLLARS
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
288. Net interest
290. Gross saving
291 Personal
saving
294. Undistributed
corporate profits
plus inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption
allowances
298. Government
surf) 1 us or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol)
(Ann. rate,
oil. dot.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. fate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dot.),
81.5
82.1
82.5
83.7
19.9
21.0
21.8
22.8
121.0
126.3
123.5
128.8
29.6
31.2
31.6
37.7
26.2
26.8
26.9
29.6
62.5
63.5
64.4
65.3
+2.7
+4.7
+0.6
-3.8
78.3
78.3
79.1
81.1
23.5
24.3
25.1
25.9
117.5
113.6
119-9
125.6
40.0
37.7
40.7
43.1
24.8
24.1
24.6
25.5
66.8
67.9
69.2
70.4
-H.I
-16.0
-14.6
-13.4
82.5
88.2
90.6
90.3
26.7
27.5
28.4
29.3
120.5
128.8
129.1
135-4
39.9
42.3
33.2
38.0
20.4
24.1
25.6
23.6
71.7
73.0
73.7
74.6
-11.5
-10.8
-3.5
-0.9
89.5
r89.2
29.8
30.3
138.5
1*142.7
32.5
33.3
22.3
r21.3
75.9
77.2
+7.8
r+10.9
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised;" p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a*( anticipated; and 1INA*1 not available.
68
SEPTEMBER 1969
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q| EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
LEADING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Job Vacancies
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
*1. Average work- 4. N onagri cultural
week of production placements,1 all
workers, manufac* industries
luring1
Year
and
month
(Hours)
1967
January
February
March
41.0
40.3
40,5
(Thous.)
2. Accession rate,
manufacturing1
[Per 100 employees)
*5. Average weekly 3. Layoff rate^;
initial claims for
manufacturing.
unemployment
insurance, State
programs 2
(Per 100 employees)
(Thous.)
512
500
492
4.6
4.3
4.1
259
236
231
196
231
256
1.3
1.5
1.-7
49. Nonagri cultural
job openings
unfilled1
46. Index of helpwanted advertising
in newspapers
(Thous.)
(1957-59= 100);'
395
379
366
189
190
1.5
1.4
1.4
353
351
352
181
174
171
184
April
May
June
40,5
.40,4
40«4
485
481
483
4.2
4-6
4.5
July
August
September
40.5
•40.7
•40.8
478
481
483
4.4
4.4
4.3
231
212
217
1.4
1.3
1.3
350
354
361
169
180
185
October
November
December
40.7
40.7'
40.7
476
471
475
4.5
4.5
4-4
220
209
204
1.3
1.2
1.2
358
354
348
186
187
190
1968
January
February
March
40.2
40,7
40, 8
478
471
481
4.5
4.5
4.1
206
196
194
1.3
1.3
1.3
359
363
371
184
193
202
April'
May
June
40,1
40,9
40.9
487
475
486
4.7
4.6
4.5-
193
195
194
1.1
1.3
1.1
380
394
386
188
187
189
July
August
September
40.9
.40.7 41.0
520
477
478
4.7
4.6
4.7
189
199
194
1.2
1.2
1.2
375
367
376
185
198
219
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
•40,9
40.8
•40. 8
466
454
443
4.8
4.6
4.7
188
190
190
1.2
1.1
1.1
374
372
373
213
222
226
40.6
40.1
40.9
448
459
431
4.9
4.6
4.6
179
186
184
1.1
1.1
1.2
372
375
365
221
230
£>232
40.8
40.7
40.7
452
427
460
4.9
4.8
r5..0
•fc^i.o
377
387
383
227
217
209
40.7
P40.6
4^6
P427
P4.8
(NA)
358
P345
210
212
'
April
May
June
July
August
September
B> 176
180
201
197
196
1.1
ri.'a
pi. 2.
(NA^
October
November
December
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicatedliy © . Current high values are
indicated'by £>• for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93) current low values are indicated by
IB>> Seriesnumbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
receded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart 88). The V indicates revised; «p", preliminary; ( e .estimated; a r anticipated;
Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows; Series 1, high value (41.6) reached in Feb. 1966: Series
4, high value (586), in May 1962; Series 2, hi£h value (5.2), in Mar. 1966; Series 49, high value (437), in July 1966. Data
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
iu:n
SEPTEMBER 1969
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
P| EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.
Comprehensive Employment
48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
(Ann. rate-, fail,
man-hours)
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
(Thous.)
*43. Unemployment rate, total
(Percent)
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs *
(Percent)
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
(Percent)
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)
1967
January
February
March
131. 33
130.64
130? 73
65,342
65,379
65,459
70,137
70,188
69,935
3.7
3.7
3.7
2.3
2.4
2.6
1.8
1.7
1.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
April
May
June
130.36
130.74
131.10
65,469
65,563
65,747
70, 144
69,804
70,407
3.8
3.9
3.9
2.6
2.7
2.6
1.9
1.9
1.9
0.6
0.6
July
August
September
131.16
131.77
131.98
65,799
66,016
66,003
70,649
70,721
70,929
3.9
3.8
4.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
1.8
1.9
1.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
October
November
December
131.75
133.02
132.79
66,083
66,600
66,734
71,023
71,135
71,293
4.2
3.8
3.7
2.3
1.8
1.8
1.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
January
February
March
131.60
133 . 29
133 . 53
66,720
67,165
67,286
71,124
71,566
71, 786
3.6
3.7
3.7
-'i '
2.3
2.3
2f2
1.7
17
1.7
0.6
0 6
0.6
April
May
June
133.54
134.21
134.75
67,466
67, 550
67,816
71,737
72,0*27
72, 156
3*5
3.0
3.7
2.1
2.2
2.2
1.6
1.6
1.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
July
August
September
135.24
135.57
135.75
67,945
68,088
68,195
72,195
72,222
72,349
3.7
3.5
3.6
2.3
2.3
2.1
1.6
1.6
1.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
October
November
December
135.89
135.83
136.19
68,427
68,664
68,875
72,477
72,682
72,923
3.6
3.4
3.3
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.6
1.6
1.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
January
February
March
137.07
137.08
138.44
69,199
69,487
69,710
73,477
73,848
74,035
3.3
|D>3.3
3.4
2.1
2.1
,2.0
1.4
1.4
IO1.4
0.4
0.4
g>0.4
April .
May
June
138.42
139.15
r!39.43
69,789
70,013
r70,300
73,941
73,460
73,966
3-5
3.5
3.4
ir>2.o
1.5
1.5
1.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
16
O K
O • Pe
2.3
2.2
0.6
1968
1969
July
August
September
Wl QQ L 7
B^-fc. n1 AO "IS?
T»70 y/~\Q
fr*-^n7O
).qA
7A ^9^
o A
tr***^ 7(b,?2J
A %%"%
g^>
3 oc
2.0
*
2
1
2 ft
2 -\
1.?C
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by 0>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14t 39,40, 43,44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
[3>.. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; M p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
70
SEPTEMBER 1969
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q| PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
TIMING CLASS ....
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Comprehensive Production
*200. Gross na- *205. Gross national product
tional product
in current dolin 1958 dollars
lars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1967
January
February
March
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Comprehensive Income
*47. Index of
industrial production
(1957-59=100)
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
*56. Manufacturing and trade
sales
(Mil. dol.)
57. Final sales *54. Sales of
(series 200
retail stores
minus series
245)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
774*2
666*5
158.3
156.7
156.6
612.8
614.9
617.9
162.7
161.4
161.2
88,078
87,323
87,632
765! 2
25,828
25,478
25,758
April
May
June
783*5
676! 5
156.7
155.6
155,7
619.3
621.2
626.1
161.2
160.9
161.7
87,656
88,016
89,184
780*2
25,940
25,966
26,488
July
August
September
806*4
678! 6
156.4
158.3
156.8
630.4
635.2
637.8
163.2
165.0
165.1
88,508
89,967
90,113
792*6
26,325
26,298
26,899
October
November
December
816.1
683-5
157.2
159-8
162.1
639.0
645.6
653.0
165.0
168.4
170.2
89,072
90,770
92,147
806.6
26,129
26,396
26,545
January
February
March
835*3
6933
161.2
162.0
163.0
656.3
664.6
671.9
170.4
173.6
174.3
93,184
93,758
94,463
833^6
27,043
27,449
27,996
April
May
June
858 ! 7
705*8
162.5
164.2
165.8
674.2
680.2
685.9
174.3
177.1
177.9
94,552
96,069
97,423
848*8
27,791
28,158
28,320
July
August
September
876 .*4
712 ,*8
166.0
164.6
165.1
691.0
696.1
701.1
179.0
179.7
181.8
98,368
97>083
99,135
869^2
28,674
28,760
28,902
892.*5
718*5
166.0
167.5
168.7
706.2
7H.5
716.0
183.3
184.6
186.7
99,675
100, UV2
98,671
882 .'6
28,697
28,806
28,347
908*7
723 li
169.1
170.1
171.4
718.7
723.9
730.7
187.1
187.6
190.7
100,137
101,390
101,510
902!l
28,989
29,289
28,916
g> 726!?
171.7
r!72.5
r!73.8
735.6
740.0
746.1
192.1
102,352
103,232
193.1
195.3 JJ>n04,127
g> 917*9
fc>29,442
29,386
r29,371
lT>rl74.6
'^ P174.3
r?51.4
|£>P756.6
1968
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
H> 924*. a
July
August
September
rl96.0
g>p!97.3
p!03,378
(NA)
r$9,157
p29,327
October
November
December
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by ID>; tor series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93) currentlow values are indicated by
fc>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; V, preliminary; e , estimated; a , anticipated;
and "NA\ not available.
BCD SEPTEMBER 1969
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Qj FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business
*12. Index of net
business formation
Year
and
month
(1957-59=100)
New Investment Commitments
*6. Value of
13. Number of new
business incorpora- manufacturers'
new orders,
tions
durable goods
industries
(Number)
(Bil. dol.)
8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1
(1957-59-100)
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
(Bil. dol.)
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
1967
January
February
March
102.2
103.2
103.3
16,703
15,987
16,244
23.94
24.15
23.54
126
143
149
5.92
6.X3
6.16
5.72
April
May
June
103.7
105.0
108.1
16,760
17,627
17,799
24.04
25.30
25.77
138
154
164
6.00
6.03
6.40
5.72
July
August
September
108 4
110.7
110.3
16 300
17,674
165
168
6.57
6.43
5.82
18,118
24 92
25.88
25.18
October
November
December
110.6
112.7
113.8
18,000
18,403
18,168
25.68
25.85
28.06
171
168
6.66
6.42
6.43
5.74
January
February
March
113.5
1H.7
113.8
17,223
18,014
17,974
26.84
26.81
28.00
156
176
6.50
6.51
6.67
5 80
April
May
June
112.8
112.7
114.5
18,659
18,796
19,197
27.37
27-17
26.70
146
172
160
6.20
6.62
7.20
5.74
July
August
September
119.0
119.1
121 2
19, 530
20,011
187
192
183
6.96
7.85
20 9A6
26.92
27.33
28 38
7 20
October
November
December
123 Q
123 4
125 3
21 39A.
21 155
20 292
30 28
29 32
29 38
200
183
179
8 18
7 29
7 79
6 63
125.2
IJ> 125.8
123.2
20, 578
22,199
21,353
29.68
30.48
29.70
191
205
177
7.98
7.84
7.50
6 65
123.9
123.1
123.6
23,467
23,230
23,7H
ft> 30.94
30.00
29.17
183
210
180
8.01
(NA)
(NA)
r30 58
p29 85
5.07
5.02
4.98
5.08
5.09
5 38
6.24
166
5.47
5.35
5.31
5.37
5.50
1968
159
5.47
5-38
5.49
5.45
5.97
5.71
6.03
6 59
5 92
6 55
6 09
6 24
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
176
(L-->
7.83
fc>*p7.48
H"
6,20
6.51
6.41
R>7.10
6.43
6.53
r6 35
t>6 05
T-7 7L.
n7 A.1
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by 0i>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
[B>.. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk {*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e" r estimated; "$", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
72
SEPTEMBER 1969
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
QH FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
New Investment Commitments-Con.
Backlog of Investment Commitments
Investment Expenditures
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial
buildings1
(Mil. sq. ft. floor
space)
7. New private
nonfarm housing
units started
(Ann. rate, thous.)
*29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized by
local building
permits
(1957-59=100)
96. Manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
(Bil.dol.)
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing
(Bil. dol.)
*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment, total
69. Machinery and
equipment sales
and business construction expenditures
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
3
( )
1967
January
February
March
49.09
57.64
56.14
1,079
1,132
1,067
83 1
78 9
81.9
77 36
April
May
June
5S.2?
54.72
62.30
1,099
1,254
1,214
90.7
91.1
97.9
75.88
76.52
77.31
July
August
September
56.72
61.66
60.45
1,356
1,381
1,415
96 L
99.4
102.3
77 82
77.94
77.94
October
November
December
58.42
63.17
64 08
1.478
1,567
1 235
106.9
102.2
116 7
78.82
79.13
80 58
ftO AQ
77 02
76.04
*—* *
61 65
7A
fO« T(
f5
7^ QD
75 53
61.50
7A. 67
74 92
76 28
60.90
76 6i.
77 90
78.58
62.70
77,92
?fi i\?
20.25
. ..
20.42
76 79
70 QJ.
20 41
1968
January
February
March
£>i, O-L
*n
Oif
I J.Qf)
Q7
9
71 •&
61.39
AA AT
1,499
120.0
T A 7Q
1O1 A
80.59
fti 7*;
April
May
June
L7 OQ
1 56?
1 3/1.5
1T O 7
ftp 2L
IDA Q
81 90
1 3A.ft
107 0
AO Q7
66 96
66 35
July
August
September
1 5O7
1 A.96
1 570
1O7 7
70 Art
66 15
61 59
107 8
80 IB
116 4
80 57
October
November
December
79 63
69.70
71.47
1 541
1,705
1,492
115 ?
119 1
199 "\
81 89
82.43
£4 07
1,845
1,664
1,567
117.2
123.4
118.7
84.43
84.99
85.16
fc>125 5
110.6
112.0
86.46
fc>86.88
85.91
71 65
•..
64*75
iQ m
JtA CO
BUOV
fti *;o
CSJ..P7
...
62 60
ftfl
QO
ftn ftA
1ft 93
***
f*o ryfj
BU.
//
80 79
t*r\ /-JQ
A3 9O
19 LL
65 90
ft9 AD
ft5 Oft
86 15
$8 21
ft5
20 02
AA
1969
January
February
March
St>94.41
69.98
63.50
fi>
April
May
June
65.82
85.60
79.12
1,548
1,495
rl,446
July
August
September
n Q6
7? LI
rl,336
pi, 323
October
November
December
r!02 . 6
P99.7
r86.37
p85.78
68.90
90 00
91 42
90.31
j£> 70.20
88 84
89.84
fc>. r91.86
ra72.25
p90 14
(NA)
20.48
|T"> P21.54
ra?2.10
NOTE* Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by B>s for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5r 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
[jb> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA",
not available.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
2
Data for 1st quarter 1968 to date are not comparable with earlier data. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page
iii, August 1969 issue.
I SEPTEMBER 1969
/3
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
H| INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
245. Change in
business
inventories1
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1967
January
February
March
*31. Change in
book value of
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total1
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
LEADING INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
Inventories
37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
inventories1
20. Change in
book value of
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.
and supplies1
(Percent
reporting)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
26. Production
materials, companies reporting
commitments 6(1
days or longer®1
(Percent
reporting)
32. Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliveries®1
(Percent
reporting)
25. Change in
until led orders,
durable goods
industries1
"71. Manufacturing and
ftrade inventories, book
value
65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods,
book value
(Btl.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
133.25
+9!6
+12.8
+5.7
+5.0
48
45
46
+2.6
+O.4
+0.6
72
67
68
48
51
38
-0.63
-0.34
-0.98
139.15
25.43
25.68
25.82
+3.4
+6.4
+2.9
-0.7
37
40
43
-1.6
-0.4
-0.9
67
66
68
39
36
38
-0.17
+0.65
+0.79
139.68
139.92
139. &7
26.22
26.41
26.36
July
August
September
+5.6
+6.7
+4.2
40
42
44
+1.4
+7.8
+0.2
-2.2
61
66
61
41
43
44
+0.50
+O.lg
+0.01
140.34
040.90
HI. 25
26.43
26.61
26.64
October
November
December
+9.5
+2.6
+13.1
+U.6
45
46
54
+0.1
+0.6
+0*3
62
63
64
50
51
48
+0.8S
+0.31
+1.45
H1.46
142.55
343.77
26.63
26.70
26.81
+1.6
+4.0
+8.6
+4.0
55
53
52
-0.5
+1.2
+0.9
64
61
64
50
55
54
-0.09
+0.10
+1.16
3M.11
144.82
145.15
26.97
27.09
27.21
April
May
June
+9.9
+16.0
+15.9
+8.6
51
55
59
+4.0
+4.7
+1.7
68
64
67
52
52
52
+0.48
-0.34
-0.93
346.49
147.81
148.52
27.35
27.59
27.64
July
August
September
+7.2
+6.5
+10.3
+9.6
59
55
40
+3.5
+2.0
-0.9
68
66
60
56
46
46
-1.29
+0.49
+0.40
149.06
149.92
150.72
27.79
28.15
28.44
+16.8
+9.8
+11 1
42
44
+1.9
-2 2
LI
+0 6
62
60
60
52
60
56
+1.32
+0.54
+1.64
152.12
152.94
153.86
28.64
28.92
29.13
+3.8
+15.0
-0.4
-0.4
+12.7
43
47
49
57
58
63
62
61
61
+0.36
+0.56
+0.16
154.18
355.43
156*49
29.08
29.41
29.61
+12.9
+13.5
r+8.0
49
52
50
+1.3
+2.8
-1.1
65
64
66
68
69
70
+1.30
+0.42
-0.97
157.57
158.69
r!59,35
29.98
30.41
30.45
p+15.6
(NA)
CT
+1 1
(NA)
CO
51
63
66
68
r+0 46
t>-0 59
April
May
June
,
1968
January
February
March
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
+10 5
+6.6
. ,,
April
May
June
July
August
September
+6.9
+4.0
:i3e*73
fr>»Dl60
11
6*5
(HA)
it^3o 66
"(N/0
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® , Currant high values are
indicated by B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 r 5, 14,39, 40, 43, 44,45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
[£>». Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book, Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 245, high value (+19.8) reaatioci in 4th quarter 1966;
Series 31, high value (+20.0), in June 1966; Series 37, high value (63), in Nov. 1964; Series 20, high value (+5.7), In Aug. 1966;
Series 26, high value (75), in Oat. 1966; Series 32, high value (86), in Mar. 1966; Series 25, high value (+1.82), in Sept. 1966.
74
SEPTEMBER
1969
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
0 PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive ComStock Prices
modity Prices
*23. Index of *19. Index of
stock prices,
industrial
500 common
materials
1
stocks®
prices®
Year
and
month
1957-59=100) (1941-43-10)
Profits and Profit Margins
22. Ratio of
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
1
(Ann. rate, indus.
bil. dol.)
(Percent)
*16. Corporate profits
after taxes1
15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all mfg.
corp,1
(Cents)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Unit Labor Costs
55. Index of
wholesale
prices, indus.
commod.®
*17. Ratio,
price to unit
labor cost
index, mfg.1
68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per unit
of gross prod.
(1958 dol.),
nonfin. corp.
(1957-59-100) 1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (Dollars)
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, mfd.
goods ®
*62. Index of
labor cost
per unit of
output, mfg.
(1957-59-100)
1967
January
February
March
106 8
105 2
102 5
84 45
8? 36
89 42
April
May
June
100 1
99 6
99 8
90 96
July
August
September
92 59
46 4
11 9
U
9
5 0
5 o
91 43
98.3
98.1
97.8
97.7
October
November
December
46 1
99-1
100.1
102 1
101 9
101 2
105 8
106 0
106 0
106 4
106 4
106 3
0 701
101 4
100 8
100 3
106 0
106 0
106 0
106 2
106 3
106.6
0 702
104 2
10A. L
105 0
10A. 7
105 5
106 3
93.01
94.49
95.81
47.0
11.7
4.9
100.3
100.2
99.6
106 0
106.3
106.5
106.8
106.8
107.1
0.709
106.5
106.6
107.5
95.66
92.66
95.30
49.9
12.1
5.1
100.0
100.2
100.9
106.8
107.1
107.4
107.1
107.3
107.6
0.712
107.1
107.1
106.6
95-04
90.75
89.09
99.8
47.9
11.5
5.1
99.7
100.0
107.8
108.3
108.6
108.1
108.7
108.9
0.719
108.3
109.0
108.9
100.0
99.5
99 8
108.8
108.6
108.8
109.1
109.1
109.4
0.718
109.1
109.7
109.6
99.8
9ft ^
109.7
Qft
70.1
-L
108.8
108 9
i no 5
98 5
98 8
109 7
110.0
109 9
110 3
Qft 7
HO 2
110 5
99.2
100 2
100.0
110.9
m 4
m ,3
m ,7
112.0
112.2
99.6
rlOO.O
rlOO.O
112.1
112.2
112.2
112.4
112.8
113.2
wioo *j
p99 2 1
l" ^ ^
1968
January
February
March
99.8
99.5
100.1
April
May
June
July
August
September
..
98 3
96 1
95 6
95 67
97 87
100 53
A.9 7
11 4
5.0
94 4
100 30
98 11
o;
mo4
50 o
11 2
5 1
01.
f>
oA
1
yo.i
October
November
December
97 %
1(Y1 ^
i no "7
10^ 76
int j,n
51 A
11 L
5 1
BP^slOA Aft
109 5
1OQ Q
109.9
0 722
m
i.
11 9 n
0 7^2
111 7
111 6
Y12 o
1969
January
February
March
1CT3
April
May
June
July
August
September
L
106 3
106 9
109 3 '
110 4
111 6
102 04
101 46
99 ^0
101 26
104 62
99 1L.
•\-[2 4
QI
117 5
October
November
December
rj-\
V4» /J-
nicn
3
3
Q/,
1ft
y^.j-o
95 2/i.
&"-=* 52 2
i51 8
11 ^
rll 1
5 0
4.9
11? L
1
ir^*>ii3.i
IP>P
n^ 5
113.6
g>pl!3.8
n?.2
0.745
111 5
112.2
...
{C>r0.755
112.9
rll2.8
rll3.2
r*m ^
lt>pllA.5
P^yj-uf.^
:
NOTE- Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated'by E>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43f 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
[[£> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA\ not available.
Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 23, high value (123.5) reached in Mar. 1966;
Series 22, high value (13.9), in 1st quarter 1966; Series 15, high value (5.8), in 1st quarter 1966; Series 17, high value
(105.2), in July 1966. 2Average for September 2, 9, and 16. ^Average for September 18, 19, and 22.
Kill SEPTEMBER 1969
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
R| MONEY AND CREDIT
LEADING INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
1967
January
February
March
Credit Difficulties
Flows of Money and Credit
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
+10.20
ft>-Hl4.52
^ +13-56
+10.56
+9.72
April
May
June
+5.23
+13. 68
+14.28
July
August
September
October
November
December
33. Net change in
mortgage debt
held by fin. inst.
and life insur*
ance companies
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*113. Net change . 112. Change in 110. Total pribusiness loans1 vate borrowing
in consumer
installment
debt
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
mil.dol.)
14. Current lia- 39. Delinquency
bilities of bus* rate, 30 days
loss failures® ;md over, total
installment loans
(Mil. dot.)
+9.77
+12.42
+10.69
+2.42
+1.42
+2.84
+7.04
-0.55
+6.83
60,804
108.17
113.45
119.32
+13.20
+11.04
+12.67
+15.31
+16.97
+1.08
+2.28
+3.84
+9.25
+1.63
+8.09
61,864
103.82
93.37
104.64
+14.16
+12.24
+8.04
+12.96
+8.04
+1.32
+17.75
+21.61
+21.20
+3.08
+4.78
+3.76
+16.09
-9.19
-2.15
66,644
+7.68
+7.68
+6.24
+7.32
+6.00
+2.64
+19.82
+21.32
+20.33
+3.79
+4.69
+&.31
+5.36
+2.66
+8.39
76,936
January
February
March
+5.28
+4.92
+7.44
+6.60
+2.64
+5.28
+20.30
+19.27
+19.72
+4.79
+8.83
+7.46
+11.47
-2.39
+3.78
68,612
April
May
June
+3.84
+8.04
+6.36
+5.28
+12.96
+9.00
+19.07
+21.62
+18.14
+7.69
+8.78
+8.59
+19.57
+2.09
+5.78
69,144
July
August
September
+13.68
+13.92
+6.84
g>+13.44
+6.36
-3.72
+17.75
+18.28
+18.88
+10.28
+11.21
+8.58
+14.02
-4.25
+4.55
October
November
December
+11.76
+12.84
+10.92
+5.64
+11.28
+7.44
+20.39
+21.68
fp>+25.37
R> +11.36
+10.01
+9-30
+20.90
+23.66
+20.09
-0.72
-4.80
(Percent)
l!82
1.90
l!?2
72.55
ioa.90
l.*65
93.94
1.66
81.63
69.98
l!?4
W.45
1968
W.49
79.60
8§.59
l!51
00.11
91.41
1.59
74.66
1.57
85,172
90.27
65,77
^8.65
l.*56
+10.70
+11.27
+14.10
§£> 93,040
65.38
|£> 58.65
+7.69
+9.58
+7.75
+17.10
+8.39
+5.35
85,680
p81,666
B> 1.47
83. 4X
iin
1969
January
February
March
-2.76
-3.60
+0.60
+5.52
+1.80 .
+1.20
April
May
June
+4.20
-2.40
-0.36
+9.84
-0.60
+4.92
+21.96
+19.40
r+22.78
+9.12
+10.15
+9.54
+16.16
+9.08
+7-25
n-7.20
p-10.08
r+6.00
p-4.80
p+16.62
(NA)
+7.46
(NA)
+2.74
P-5-18
July
August
September
75.03
89.99
84.12
118,76
92.60
91*92
112.47
62.83
l'.51
.. •
1.60
1.64
(NA)
October ....,,....,
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93)r current low values are indicated by
6:D> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). Ttie V indicates revised; "p ff r preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
series reached its high value (+21.11) in July 1966.
76
SEPTEMBER 1069
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
0 MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Ran If
Minor Economic
Process
Year
LAGGING INDICATORS
93. Free^
reserves.®
Outstanding Debt
Money Market lnterest Rates
Reserves
114. Treasury
bill rate©
116. Corporate 115. Treasury
bond yields® bond yields©
and
66. Consumer
bond yields© installment
debt
month
(Mil.dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
*72. Commercial
and industrial
loansoutstanding, weekly re*
portinglarge commercial banks
.... (Mil.dol.)
Interest Rates on Business
Loans and Mortgages
*67. Bank
rates on shortterm business
loans, 35
cities©
118. Mortgage
yields, fesidential ©
(Percent)
(Percent)
19G7
January
February
March
-16
-4
+236
4.76
4.55
4.29
5.53
5.35
5.55
4.40
4.47
4.45
3.54
3.52
3.55
76,191
76,309
76,546
60,936
61,138
61,592
6!i3
6.62
6.46
6.35
April
3.85
3.64
3-48
5.59
5.90
6.06
4.51
4-76
4.86
3.60
3.89
3.96
76,636
76,826
77,146
62,345
62,209
62,580
5^95
June
+175
+269
+297
6.29
6.44
6.51
July
August
September
+272
+298
+268
4.31
4.28
4.45
6.06
6.30
6.33
4.86
4.95
4.99
4.02
3.99
4.12
77,403
77,801
78,114
62,911
62,817
63,246
5^95
6.53
6.60
6.63
October
November
December
+160
+270
+107
4.59
4.76
5.01
6.53
6.87
6.93
5.19
5.44
5.36
4.30
4.34
4.43
78,430
78,821
79,180
63,592
64,053
65,102
5.*96
6.65
6.77
6.81
January
February
March
+144
+38
-315
5.08
4.97
5.14
6.57
6.57
6.80
5.18
5.16
5.39
4.29
4.31
4.54
79,579
80,315
80,937
65,363
65,734
66,063
6^36
6.81
6.78
6.83
April
June
-413
-326
-341
5.36
5.62
5.54
6.79
7.00
7.02
5.28
5-40
5.23
4.34
4.54
4.50
81,578
82,310
83,026
67,446
67,306
67,702
6.84
6.94
(NA)
7.52
July
August
September
-226
-190
-132
5.38
5.10
5.20
6.91
6.54
6.69
5.09
5.04
5.09
4.33
4.21
4.38
83,883
84,817
85,532
68,178
68,695
69,225
6.*89
7.42
7.35
7.28
October
November
December
-167
-245
-310
5.33
5.49
5-92
6.88
7.00
7.28
5.24
5.36
5.66
4.49
4.60
4.82
86,479
87,313
8e,oae
70,264
71,536
72,346
6.*6l
7.29
7.36
7.50
-480
-596
-701
6.18
6.16
6.08
7.29
7.33
7.76
5-74
5.86
6.05
4.85
4.98
5.26
88,729
89,527
90,173
73,410
74,698
74,674
7^32
(NA)
7.99
8.05
-844
fc>-l,102
-1,064
6.15
6.08
6.49
7-54
7.62
8.04
5.84
5.85
6.05
5.19
5.33
5.76
90,933
91,779
92,574
76,659
77,176
77,008
7.86
8.06
8.06
8.35
^ 5.75
fc>6.00
B>93,196
"^ (NA)
May
1968
May
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
juiv
August
September
r-1,074
P-990
October
November
December
7.00
t>7.01
E>a.o6
8.05
IO6.07
6.02
t
76, 687
P77,426
|C>8.'82
|fc>8.*36
NOTE- Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated'by[£>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
fc>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p ff , preliminary; "e , estimated; a , anticipated;
and "NA\ not available.
SEPTEMBER 1969
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
Q COMPOSITE INDEXES
Year
and
month
810. Twelve
leaders, reverse
trend adjusted 1
(series 1,5, 6,
10, 12, 16, 17,
19,23,29,31,
113)
830. Six
laggers (series
44,61,62,67,
71, 72)
Leading indicator subgroups
813. Marginal
employment adjustments
(series 1,2, 3;
5)2
(1963=100)
1967
820. Five
coinciders,
estimated aggregate economic activity
(series 41, 43,
47, 52, 56)
(1963-100)
(1963-100)
3
( )
(1963-100)
814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,
12, 29)
(1963-100)
815. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 23, 25,
31,37) 2
(1963-100)
81S. Profitabil- 817. Sensitive
financial flows
ity (series 16,
17, 19)*
(series 33, 85,
112,113)
(1963-100)
(1963=100)
f3)
January
February
March
126.3
124.9
125.0
141.2
U0.9
141.5
150.0
149.5
149.7
106.4
103.0
101.8
103.1
103.3
103.4
103.2
101.6
100.7
113.8
113.6
113.8
95.8
97.1
97.9
April
June
125.6
127.0
126.7
141.4
141.3
142.3
149.8
149.6
150.3
102.3
103.8
103.8
104.5
105.5
107.9
99.5
100.2
100.2
U4.3
104.4
113.8
95.5
98.4
99.8
July
August
September, ., .
129.0
131.5
131.6
143.1
144.5
H3.7
150.6
150.4
151.4
103.8
105.0
104.9
107.4
109.3
108.9
99.9
100.3
99.5
1U.5
114.7
115.0
100.3
98.7
97.6
October
November
December
132.7
134.4
136.8
143.2
146.8
149.0
152.0
152.9
154.8
104-9
105.7
105.7
109.8
112.5
100.9
102.0
104.2
105.6
115.6
116.5
99.7
100.0
99.3
January
February
March
134.6
137.3
137.8
149,9
151.7
152.9
157.2
159.0
159.7
104.6
105.8
105.3
no.4
H2.6
113.0
102.0
102.3
102.8
115.4
114.0
114.1
100.5
100.4
100.6
April
153.7
154.9
156.3
162.4
163.7
164.4
105.9
106.3
106.8
111.3
1U.1
112.2
102.7
101.8
100.9
116.0
116.5
117.4
102.6
June
137.9
139.1
140.1
102.8
101.7
July
August
September
141.6
142.0
143.6
157.3
157.8
159.0
164.1
166.7
167.7
107.1
106.2
107.0
113.8
U4.9
116.1
100.1
101.6
100.1
117.4
115.8
116.7
104.3
101.5
99.6
October
November
December
147.3
147.2
143.6
160.2
162.1
163.0
168.6
170.8
173.7
107.3
107.1
107.2
118.8
117.6
119.1
102.2
102.0
102.9
117.8
118,7
119.0
103.7
104.3
g> 104.5
148.6
150.7
150.3
164.3
166.0
167.0
176.4
179.1
ttfll.2
107.7
106.1
107.1
119.0
119.9
117.9
102.0
104.5
104.4
118,5
119,2
118.5
102.6
102.6
100.3
152.8
fc>152.8
151.7
167.7
rl68.9
r!70.9
r!82,.8
r!84.7
rl87.3
108.5
107.6
107-1
B> H9.9
117.9
117.6
106.0
105.9
r!04-4
rl!8.6
119.6
117*7
rioa.a
152.0
P151.6
r!70.7
B>pl71.9
r!89.9
B>pl93.6
106.6
(NA)
rll7..7
P116.6
T106.6
P106.3
rll6.4
pllS.O
May
no.i
1968
May
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August.
September
104.2
101.6
P99.9
(NA^
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [jD> ; for series that move counter to movements in genera] business activity (series 3.5,14,39,40,43,44,45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
fits*. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart 88). The V indicates revised; V, preliminary: "e", estimated; "a*, anticipated;
and *NA", not available.
1
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators. For historical
data prior to reverse trend adjustment, see series 811 in Appendix C of this issue.
s
Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 813, high value (109.4) reached in March 1966;
Series
815, high value (HO.l) reached in March 1966; Series 816, high value (120.1) reached in February 1966.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
78
SEPTEMBER 1969
BCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment
a. Actual
expenditures
b. Second
c. First
anticipations as anticipations as
percent of actual percent of actual
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Percent)
410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value
(Percent)
(Bil. dol.)
412. Manufactur- 414. Condition
ers' inventories, of manufacturers'
total book value inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low
(Bil. doi.)
(Percent)
416. Adequacy 435. Index of
of mfrs.' capac- consumer
sentiment
jty: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
(First quarter
excessive
(Percent)
1966=100)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
58.00
60.10
61.25
62.80
98.6
99.2
100.6
99.7
97.8
98.0
100.7
101.2
131.2
134.0
135.3
137.5
70.0
72.7
75.5
78.1
11
14
19
26
47
45
46
42
100.0
95.7
91.2
88.3
61.65
61.50
60.90
62.70
101.5
100.1
102.6
99.0
102.9
101.2
103.1
135.0
135.6
137.4
140.7
80.1
81.1
81.7
82.8
30
29
23
22
40
40
41
38
92.2
94.9
96.5
92.9
64-75
•62.60
63.20
100.1
1Q3.2
102.7
102.0
100.5
102.7
104.5
145.2
149.5
152.7
156.6
83-8
85.6
87.1
88.6
22
22
21
16
35
35
40
42
95.0
92.4
92.9
92.1
104-0
102.6
(NA)
103.3
159-2
161.8
ral66.2
al67.2
90.3
18
19
43
95.1
91.6
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
99.9
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
65.90
98.9
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
68.90
70.20
100.9
(HA)
ra?2.10
92.2
ra94-5
a96.8
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reporting-a. No change b. Higher
in income
income
(Percent)
(Percent)
c. Lower
income
(Percent)
425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households
a. Increase
in income
(Percent)
430. Household purchases of new cars
2-quarter moving average
a. Actual
b. Increase c. Decrease (quarterly)
b. Actual
c. Antici- d. Anticipated
less decrease in income
as percent of
pated
(Ann. rate, (Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate, actual
mil, cars)
mil, cars)
(Percent)
mil, cars)
(Percent)
(Percent)
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
52.4
55.2
53.9
54.2
35.4
32.9
34.2
33.3
11.6
52.3
47.5
48.1
51.2
36.0
40.9
40.3
38.0
11.1
10.9
11.0
10.1
16.0
15.8
17.4
16.2
10.1
9.9
52.9
53-0
50.8
36.4
35.9f
37.3
10.0
10.5
10.8
11.2
11.0
7.3
7.5
6.8
6.8
7.4
7.4
7.1
6.8
7.4
7.9
11.2
10.2
5.9
5.9
6.2
6.0
7.1
7.7
8.3
8.3
19.3
18.3
18.4
16.7
13.8
12.5
11.9
11.2
5.5
5.8
6.5
5.5
8.1
8.4
16.5
H.3
12.0
13.0
5.2
6.1
5.6
u-o
1968
First quarter...
Second .quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
8.7
7.4
7.6
7.6
96
92
92
7.8
7.6
7.9
8.3
99
92
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
7-9
8.3
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter.,
Fourth quarter..
18.1
18.6
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement., Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e" estimated; V, anticipated; and *NA", not available.
BCII SEPTEMBER
1969
79
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter
D440. New orders, manufacturing1
Actual
D442. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade1
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
1)446, Number of employees,1
manufacturing and trade
D444. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade '
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
84
86
84
82
85
82
88
90
90
86
65
66
63
62
62
63
63
62
65
65
64
69
75
74
76
76
71
70
72
74
80
82
82
82
5S
58
60
60
60
60
80
83
82
81
70
73
72
74
74
80
78
73
79
82
82
84
82
86
86
84
57
60
50
60
60
60
58
60
82
85
83
80
70
74
78
79
77
76
80
84
86
88
86
83
59
60
60
60
60
59
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
88
88
84
82
86
88
88
84
82
82
78
76
71
72
69
72
82
82
80
81
78
78
79
80
81
80
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter,..
Second quarter ,
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade1
Actual
Anticipated
Selling prices
D460. Manufacturing
and tf adei
Actual
Anticipated
D462. Manufacturing1
Actual
D464. Wholesale trade1
P466. Retail trade1
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
74
74
80
78
66
69
74
70
70
72
78
76
65
68
72
68
78
76
82
78
68
72
76
78
78
84
80
63
70
76
75
65
66
63
62
72
72
76
78
75
72
70
72
70
70
72
73
74
72
68
70
74
74
80
76
73
69
74
74
80
84
87
76
76
72
78
68
68
70
70
63
66
67
66
78
80
81
84
76
79
78
78
74
76
78
80
74
76
75
76
81
82
82
85
78
82
78
78:
88
88
88
92
81
84
86
87
71
70
66
68
66
66
84
84
78
80
80
81
82
75
79
78
80
85
79
80
80
91
90
84
84
84
86
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
74
74
73
74
66
68
69
69
68
66
65
64
(4*Q span)
(4-Q span)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter,
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
80
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by <§). Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a*, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Thia is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Ine.
80
SEPTEMBER 1969
KCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries
a. Actual
expenditures
(1-Q span)
(1-0 span)
(1-Qspan)
480. Change in
freight carloadings®
b. Anticipations
a. Actual
carloadings
c. First
anticipations
b. Second
anticipations
D480. Freight carloadings'®
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(Thous.of cars-"
4-Q span)
1966
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
83.3
83.3
55.6
75.0
62.5
71.9
37.5
65.6
56.2
71-9
71.9
75.0
73.7
73.7
57.9
52.6
73.7
89.5
84.2
78.9
+28
+18
+21
+1
55.6
30.6
33.3
61.1
50.0
41.7
44.4
50.0
53.1
52.8
58.3
A4.4
42.1
31.6
10.5
42.1
78.9
52.6
78.9
73-7
-51
-88
-130
-88
66.7
33.9
55.6
55.6
63.9
55-6
69.4
83.3
63.9
47.2
80.6
.55.6
31.6
68.4
63.4
(NA)
73.7
63.2
73.7
68.4
-16
+29
+52
-9
83.3
66.7
83.3
75.0
72.2
50.0
69.4
50.0
78.9
89.5
84.2
-9
-10
rp-20
1967
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
63.9.
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® * Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
ItCII SEPTEMBER
1969
81
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q| FOREIGN TRADE
Year
and
month
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1967
January ,
February
March
+322
+366
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles and parts
(Mil. dol.)
508. Index of export orders, 512. General imports, total
nonelectrical machinery
(1957-59=100)
(Mil. dol,)
+359
2, £39
2,582
2,524
920
855
904
235
196
252
2 317
2.216
2,166
April
May
June
+410
+432
+398
2,608
2,549
2,582
793
1,005
961
215
220
2,198
2,118
2,184
July
August
September
+357
+421
+399
2,601
2,566
2,597
907
887
924
230
231
October
November
December
+161
2 A.15
S29
258
+275
2 A?1
2 A77
ft71
poj.
99?
pee
1968
January
February
March
+184
-
218:
219
2,245
2,145
2,198
2 0CJ,
qoi
2 ,^70
AQ-3
2 >**7«5
+128
+184
-150
2 814
909
215
2 687
2 775
260
2 cop
2 439
1 007
1 314
2*>2
9 *?&&
April
May
June
+251
2,855
2 740
2,870
917
1 047
989
244
237
223
2 604
2 7J5'S
2 792
July
August
September
+133
4-78
+260
2,858
2,950
3,211
914
988
923
246
245
256
2,725
2,872
2,951
2 AQ1
2 972
2 977
T PAft
OJ. J,
a ) ryif.
(JV
925
1 082
23P
239
2 #33
9 QOA
242
260
222
2 018
2 6J5(5
3 196
834
1 391
1,118
2 981
3 355
1.110
248
3 177
3 292
3 213
1 222
rl 911
3 172
•nl
-15
+78
October .
November
December
1969
January
February
March
+75
-359
+215
April
May
June
+178
+16
+25
July
August
September
10*5
+89
+70
r+105
+205
2 09*3
2 297<
^)*-7
3 3fts
91 ^
P $ <
fwO
^ 976
^ 13&
25/L
r283
•* f)AA
p,uoo
•a -|t>fj
J,±OU
n^nft
pj}U8
/MA ^
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® , Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary;
"e\ estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
82
SEPTEMBER 1969
ltd*
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter
250. Balance on goods and
services, excluding military
grants
U.S. balance of payments
522. Official settlements
basis
520. Liquidity balance
basis
(Mil. dol.)
Net capital movements plus unilateral transfers
and errors and omissions
525. 1Liquidity balance
basis
{Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
527. Official
settlements
basis2
(Mil, dol.)
Vlil. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
-600
-24
-426
-307
-344
-110
+481
+239
1,558
1,398
1,100
1,223
-2,158
-1,422
-1,526
-1,530
-1,902
-1,508
-619
-495
-1,7H
-719
-71
-917
1,361
1,451
1,404
961
-1,856
-1,781
-2,435
-2,649
-3,072
-2,170
-1,475
-1,878
-564
-51
-162
+8?0
-379
+1,553
+368
471
841
909
301
-1,035
-892
-1,071
+569
-850
+712
-812
-1,699
p-3,7-92
+1,150
pf 1,249
P365
(NA)
P-2,069
(NA)
p+786
-330
-1,031
-1,686
-984
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
+97
+67
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter,..
Fourth quarter..
(NA)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
530. Liquid
532. Liquid
534. U.S.
official
liabilities to and certain
nonliquid lia- reserve
to all
3
foreigners ® bilities to
assets* ©
foreign official
3
agencies ®
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
Goods and services movements, excluding transfers under military.grants
Income on investment, military
Merchandise, adjusted5
transactions, other serv., total
Goods and services
252. Exports
253. Imports
536. Exports
537. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
540. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
541. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
28,738
28,819
29,432
29,779
16,004
16,305
15,797
16,043
15,026
14,958
14,876
14,882
10,562
10,667
10,936
11,196
9,004
9,269
9,836
9,973
7,218
7,194
7,413
7,564
6,027
6,165
6,595
6,676
3,344
3,473
3,523
3,632
2,977
3,104
3,241
3,297
28,990
29,620
31,211
33,H9
16,295
17,424
17,819
19,402
13,855
14,274
U,649
14,830
11,461
11,484
11,577
11,667
10,100
10,033
10,173
10,706
7,688
7,723
7,669
7,601
6,660
6,465
6,542
7,154
3,773
3,761
3,908
4,066
3,440
3,568
3,631
3,552
32,482
32,574
33,576
33,692
18,407
16,994
17,493
18,576
13,926
14,063
14,634
15,710
11,934
12,668
13,3A4
12,653
11,463
11,827
12,435
12,352
7,941
8,395
8,879
8,383
7,817
8,131
8,566
8,458
3,993
4,273
4,465
4,270
3,646
3,696
3,869
3,894
P35,056
pl6,913
p!5,758
(NA)
pll,890
pll,525
(NA)
7,474
P9,590
7,577
P9,619
,
(NA)
P3,948
(NA)
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
2
3
4
^•Series 520 minus series 250.
Series 522 minus series 250.
Amount outstanding at the end of quarter.
Reserve
5
position at the end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers tinder military grants and Department of
Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).
ItCII SEPTEMBER 1969
83
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Income on investment, military transactions and other services (components of series 540 and 541)
Income on investments
Military transactions
Travel
542. U.S. invest- 543. Foreign
investments in
ments abroad
the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil, dol.)
Transportation and other services
546. Sales under 547,, Military
544. Receipts
545. Payments
from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military conexpenditures
tracts
abroad
elers in the U.S. abroad
(Mil. do!.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
548, Receipts
from
(Mil. dol.)
549. Payments
for
(Mil, dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1,482
1,557
1,573
1,640
479
503
569
591
379
389
411
411
644
676
666
671
198
219
202
210
877
925
975
987
1,285
1,308
1,337
1,371
977
1,000
1,031
1,048
1,612
1,580
1,801
1,879
584
591
580
607
416
391
416
423
701
841
9U
739
333
335
239
332
1,085
1,075
1,106
1,102
1,412
1,455
1,452
1,432
1,070
3,061
1,031
1,094
1,771
1,973
2,040
1,917
671
742
770
749
440
424
450
456
763
732
792
735
305
353
406
364
1,102
1,116
1,143
1,169
1,477
1,523
1,569
1,533
1,110
1,106
1,164
1,241
p2,075
(NA)
p894
(NA)
P508
(NA)
P791
(NA)
pl,198
pl,417
(NA)
pl,065
(NA)
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter*.
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
P416
(NA)
(NA)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Capital movements plus Government nonmilitary unilateral transfers
Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)
Securities investments
561. U.S. investments
abroad
(Mil. dol.)
564. Foreign purchases 565. U.S. purchases
of U.S. securities
of foreign securities
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, rat
575. Banking and
other capital transactions, net
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil, dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter •
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
no
728
934
917
1,060
173
520
107
109
322
80
87
-7
-1,063
38
-113
-1,054
-789
-825
118
446
325
378
64
70
12
112
717
533
947
956
133
329
520
34
223
266
476
301
-1,121
-955
-961
-1,174
462
467
-329
-199
251
5
23
41
472
1,009
1,262
283
839
1,116
1,115
1,290
311
164
337
455
-977
-359
-788
-366
230
245
96
577
P776
(NA)
1,372
P310
P325
P-874
(NA)
P-94
(NA)
52
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "pi preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
84
SEPTEMBER
1969
ltd*
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
|3 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and expenditures
Year
and
month
601. Federal
600. Federal
surplus (+)or receipts, nadeficit(-) , na-tional income
and product
tional income
accounts
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol/L
hiLdon
Defense indicators
602. Federal
264. National
expenditures, defense purnational income chases
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
.bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.1
616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
647. New or648. New orders, defense ders, defense
products indus- products
tries
625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
(Mil.dol.)
.(Mil.dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
6,518
6,595
6,343
2,296
69.9
1,903
3.01
3.32
3.07
3,364
3,930
3,034
1,754
2,480
2,290
3.17
4.04
3.93
3,026
4,040
3,566
(Bil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1967
January .
February
March
-12.0
147.5
159.5
2, no
April ..
May
June.. ..
-13 !2
148.3
161.4
71.9
6,211
7,732
6,891
July
August
September
-13^4
152! 8
165^3
73.*0
5,928
7,003
7,479
1,633
1,925
2,958
3.60
2.99
3.36
3,545
3,690
3,720
October
November
December
-12.*3
156!4
168 !s
74^6
7,449
6,565
6,331
2,735
2,173
1,846
3.98
3.64
4.36
3,626
3,308
3,479
January
February
March
-8^4
165!?
174^1
76!i
7,033
7,615
6,208
2,360
2,865
' 1,985
3.51
3.86
5.07
li6o
1.31
2,887
3,445
3,124
April ..
May
June
-9.*5
17<X8
isoii
77^9
6,765
7,441
6,929
2,161
2,299
2,077
4.43
4.01
2.96
1.47
2.27
2.06
3,488
4,203
3,067
July
August
September
-a!a
18l!4
184^2
78^8
7,544
7,659
7,989
2,323
2,804
3,234
3.67
3.91
3.55
1.91
2.36
1.92
3,937
3,173
3,836
October
November
December
-6!l
187^3
187^4
79^3
7,520
7,286
6,603
2,298
2,520
1,959
4.41
3.89
4.20
2.38
1.95
2.31
3,903
3,378
3,821
198 !l
188!5
79^6
7,852
7,216
6,303
2,307
2,207
1,542
4.02
4.39
3.81
1.84
2.31
2.15
3,468
3,658
2,777
08^3
7^5
6,340
6,279
, P5,767
1,442
1,304
pl,429
4.02
3.81
2.87
2.08
1.79
1.27
2,639
2,673
2,618
(NA)
(NA)
r4.05
P3.63
r2.38
pl.58
(NA)
1968
•
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
+9^6
IM-IJ.'O
July
August
September
r202.*3
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those .series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p". preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
ltd) SEPTEMBER 1969
85
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q PRICE MOVEMENTS
Wholesale price indexes
Consumer price indexes
Year
and
month
784. Services® 750. All commod- 58. Manufactured goods®
ities®
751. Processed
foods and
feeds
752. Farm products
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
781. All items® 782. Food
783. Commodities less foods
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
1967
January
February
March
U4.7
114.8
115.0
114.9
114,3
114.5
107.4
107.8
108.0
125.5
125.9
126.3
106.2
106.0
105.7
106.4
106.4
106.3
13J2.2
U1.5
HI. 2
102.5
100.5
99.3
April
May
June
115.3
115.6
116.0
114.0
114.4
U5.1
108.4
108.7
108.9
126.6
127.0
127.4
105.3
105.8
106.3
106.2
106.3
106.6
111.0
111.6
112.3
97.2
100.1
102.7
116.5
116.9
117.1
UL5.2
109.2
109.6
110.1
127.7
128.2
128.7
106.5
106.1
106.2
106.8
106.8
107.1
112,0
115.8
H5.6
111,9
101.1
99.1
98.0
106.1
106.2
106.8
107.1
107.3
107.6
111,7
111,5
111.7
98.3
97.6
99.7
July
August
,.
September
111 4 9
October
November .
December
1968
January
February
March
117. 5
117.8
118.2
115.7
116.1
116.6
110.4
110.7
110.9
129.1
129.6
130.1
118.6
119.0
119.5
117.2
117.5
118.2
111.3
111.7
112.1
130.8
131.3
132.1
107.2
108.0
108.2
108.1
108.7
108.9
112.1
113,1
113,6
99.3
100.8
101.8
April
May
June
119.9
120.3
120.9
118. 7
119.3
119.1
112.2
112.5
113.0
132.5
133.0
133.9
108.3
108.5
108.7
109.1
109.1
109.4
114. 1
134.4
113.9
101.7
102.8
102.6
July
August
September
121.5
121.9
122.2
D.9.2
119.5
120.0
113.3
113.7
114.0
134.9
135.5
136.0
109.1
108.7
109.1
109.7
109.5
109.9
114. 6
134.6
114*5
102.1
101.2
102.7
October....
November
December
1969
January
February
March
122.9
123.4
123.7
120.8
121.0
121.6
114.4
114.8
115.0
136.6
137.4
138.1
109.1
109.6
109.8
no.o
110.3
110.5
134.5
1-15.3
134.9
102.7
104,. 7
103.9
124.1
124.6
125.6
122.2
122.0
122.8
115.1
115.9
117.0
139.0
139.7
140.9
110.7
111.1
111.7
111.3
111.7
112.2
115*7
116.1
117.1
105.3
104.5
106.2
April
May
126.4
126.8
127.6
123.6
124.2
125.5
117.2
117.5
118.0
342.0
142.7
143.3
111.9
112.8
H3.2
112.4
112.8
113.2
118.6
120.2
120,7
105.1
109.6
111.3
July
August
September
128.2
125.8
126.4
118.2
118.4
144.0
145.0
113.3
113.4
113.5
113.6
120.7
121.1
108.5
108.7
June
128.7
PH3.5
pl!3.8
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p" f preliminary;
"e", estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
86
SEPTEMBER 1969
ltd*
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
Year
and
quarter
207. Gap (potential less actual)
Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
206. Potential level1
205. Actual value
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1966
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter. .....
Fourth quarter
1967
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
649-1
655.0
660.2
668.1
637.6
643.9
650.2
656.6
-11.5
-ll.l
-10.0
-11.5
666.5
670.5
678.0
683.5
663.1
669.6
676.2
682.9
-3.4
-0.9
-1.8
-0.6
693.3
705.8
712.8
718.5
689.6
696.4
703.3
710.2
-3.7
-9.4
-9.5
-8.3
723.1
726.7
717.2
724.3
-5.9
-2.4
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; V, anticipated; and M NA n B not available.
1
Based on a trend line of 3-1/2 percent per year through middle of 1955 from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3-3/4 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to date.
SEPTEMBER
1969
87
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q| ANALYTICAL RATIOS
Year
and
month
1967
January „,
February
March
850. Ratio,
output to capacity, manufacturing
851. Ratio,
inventories
to sales, manufacturing
and trade
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods
853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer
goods
854. Ratio,
personal saving to disposable personal
income
855. Ratio,
nonagriculturaljobopenings unfilled
to persons
unemployed
(Percent)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
(1957-59=100)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
2.42
21.42
2.43
77.72
77.79
77.84
6.3
0.117
0.120
0.115
136! 6
2.43
2.44
21.43
76.11
78.33
78.36
6!4
0.077
0.109
0.118
0.119
13l! 1
2.43
2.44
2.45
77.94
78.49
78.16
121.2
119.6
118.3
0.069
0.128
0.124
0.129
132! 6
2.47
2.46
2.48
78.17
78.71
78.57
5!5
3.41
3-36
3.28
117.9
118.0
117.5
0.072
134!l
2.47
2.48
2.48
78.29
78.!?5
78.63
5^7
1.52
1.54
1.52
3.17
3.38
3.24
117.3
116.3
117.7
0.656
134.4
2.48
2.49
2.49
78.39
78.^2
78.94
5.4
1.53
1.53
1.56
3.19
3.22
3.38
117.0
120.1
119.4
0.063
135^8
2.49
2.50
2.51
78.64
78.31
78.66
4^9
p84l5
1.54
1.53
1.54
3.22
3.18
3.21
118.9
118.7
118.5
0.053
0.1A1
0.1A3
0.134
135! 6
21.51
21.50
2.49
78.52
78.05
78.31
5^6
pQk.6
1.54
1.54
1.53
3.24
3.26
3.17
120.0
rl21.8
121.5
0.054
0.133
0.138
0.339
P.134l6
21.48
2.48
a. 48
78.20
78.25
r?8.27
s!i
pl.55
(NA)
3.20
(NA)
r!20.8
p!20.8
r2.SG
p2.50
r78.03
P78.29
April
May
June
8s!6
1.59
1.59
1.57
3-53
3.50
3.48
124.3
124.6
123.3
0.676
July
August
September
84O
1.59
1.57
1.57
3.54
3.40
3.48
123.1
121.7
122,3
0.074
October
November
December
$1*.$
1.59
1.57
1.56
3.54
3.44
3.39
119.4
122.2
119.9
p84^9
1.55
1.54
1.54
3.37
3.36
3.39
p84!s
1.55
1.54
1.52
July
August
September
(Percent)
129! 6
0.075
April
May
June
(1957-59=100 (1957-50 dol.) (1957-59 dol.)
6J6
126.0
127.6
125.6
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
857, Vacancy
rate in total
rental housing®
7*. 52
77.91
77.09
3.51
3.50
3.46
July
August
September
859. Real
spendable avg,
wkly. earnings,
nonagri. prod,
or nonsupv,
workers
2.41
2.42
2. 43
1.57
1.59
1.59
April
May
June
856. Real
avg. hourly
earnings,
prod, workers,
mfg.
128 ! 3
8-Ki
1968
January
February
March
0.138
0.133
0.127
858. Output
per man-hour
total private
nonfarm
p84.0
• **
p84!2
0.121
o.n8
O.UL7
0.137
o.uo
0.132
0.129
0.132
0.132
0.134
o.no
0.1A3
0.124
pO.120
5^
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® , Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
SEPTEMBER 1969
not
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
01. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing (21 industries)
1-month span
06. Value of manufactufers' new orders,
durable goods industries (35 industries)
9-month span
1- month span
9-month span
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICE (17 industries)
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
1967
January.
February
March
69.0
7.1
81.0
11.9
9.5
9.5
40.0
54.3
32.9
34.3
34.3
38.6
47
53
April
May
June
40.5
26.6
64.3
16.7
38.1
31.0
48.6
54.3
64.3
65.7
61.4
65.7
53
41
July
August
September
71.4
59.5
76.2
76.2
61.9
40.5
40.0
72.9
42.9
74.3
91.4
70.0
53
59
October
November
December
1968
January
February .
March
23. 6
71.4
45.2
81.0
69.0
14.3
60.0
54.3
74.3
71.4
71.4
68.6
41
41
14.3
90.5
21.4
57.1
64.3
64.3
51.4
55.7
•50.0
57.1
71.4
68.6
47
53
April
May
June
11.9
90.5
73. 8
33.3
85.7
88.1
40.0
-54.3
51.4
68.6
68.6
80,0
65
59
33.3
33.1
83.3
35.7
47.6
76.2
51.4
44.3
78.6
71*4
88,6
82.9
71
62
28.6
U2.9
1
50.0
60,0
44*3
55.7
88.6
77.1
85.7
47
76
"40.5
1
19.0
23.8
• 57.1
62.9
40.0
82.9
68.6
r57.1
53
. P65
*P33.3
54.3
45.7
40.0
p60.0
P53
July
August
September
1
1
X
U7.6
L
16.7
X
52.4
October
November
December
1969
January
February
X
I
52.4
2fi.6
90.5
1
March
H7.6
X
42.9
i*7.6
April
May
June
l
July
August ...
September
l
r2S.6
'p42.9
X
,
P57.1
P45.7
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p". preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Based on revised data. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," July 1969 issue.
SEPTEMBER 1969
89
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading indicators- Con,
D34. Profits,
manufacturing,
FNCB (about 1,000
corporations)
Year
and
month
1 -quarter span
1967
January
February
March
A3
D23. Index of industrial materials prices
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common
(13 industrial materials)
stocks (77 industries)©1
9-month span
D5> Initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, week
including the 12th (47 areas)
1-month span
9-month span
1-month span
90.9
92.2
61.0
85.7
90.3
97.4
46.2
0.0
53.8
23.1
15.4
26.9
55.3
17.0
46.8
27.7
8.5
8.5
1-month span
9-month span
April
May
June
46
76.0
74.0
51.3
93-4
92.1
86.2
23.1
61.5
69.2
30.8
23.1
23.1
55.3
54.3
55.3
31.9
A4.7
29.8
July
August
September
52
81.6
77.6
57.2
68.4
65.8
71.1
30.8
53- 8
19.2
23.1
30.8
46.2
34.0
72.3
60.6
78.7
78.7
66.0
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
59
32.2
7.9
71.1
52.6
46.1
50.0
46.2
46.2
61.5
38.5
30.8
30.8
38.3
74.5
46. B
80.9
70.2
78.7
55
64-5
10.5
21.1
61.8
63.2
71.1
46.2
46.2
53.8
30.8
46.2
46.2
25.5
80.9
25.5
57.4
51.1
61.7
April
May
June
45
94.7
83.6
80.3
76.3
82.7
65.3
A6.2
53. 8
50.0
53.3
61.5
73,1
63.8
51.1
53.2
38.3
51.1
74.5
July
August
September
56
48.7
17.8
86.7
93-3
97.3
81.3
46.2
65.4
57.7
76.9
57.7
76.9
57.4
40.4
63.8
36.2
66.0
76.6
53
82.7
77.3
72.7
71.3
52.0
56.0
69.2
69.2
38.5
92.3
92.3
84.6
66.0
31.9
61.7
b3.8
78.7
59.6
53
12.0
43.3
13-3
73,3
40.0
14.7
53.3
61.5
46.2
84.6
80.8
76.9
72.3
38.3
55.3
70.2
46.8
40.4
52
54.0
74.7
1.3
12.0
65.4
57.7
76.9
69.2
76.9
48.9
57.4
23.4
58.5
. .
October , . ..
November
December
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
4.0
34.7
61.5
76.9
3
65.4
8
51.1
59.6
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on
the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjust*
ment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; V, preliminary; and
"NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by®.
1
Based on 77 components through June 1967; on 76 components, July 1967 through August 1968; and on 75 components thereafter.
a
Average for September 2, 9, and 16.
90
SEPTEMBER
1969
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
|9 DIFFUSION INDEXES: Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year
and
month
D41. Number of employees on
nonagricultural payrolls
(30 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries)©
1-month span
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
6-month span
1-month span
9-month span
1967
January -.
February
March..
66.7 ,
35.0
40.0
50.o
43.3
41.7
29.2
20.8
43.8
45.8
29.2
27.1
77.3
72.7
56.8
63.6
68.2
65.9
87.0
39.1
43.5
69.6
91.3
95.7
April
May
June
40.0
36.7
65.0
36.7
40.0
40.0
52.1
16.7
50.0
29.2
41.7
41.7
47.7
54.5
47.7
63.6
63.6
63.6
60.9
34.8
82.6
87.0
91.3
56.5
July
August
September
41.7
66.7
46.7
51.7
76.7
66.7
47.9
75.0
41.7
54.2
66.7
75.0
63.6
63.6
75.0
72.7
81.8
81.8
43.5
60.9
76.1
82.6
78.3
82.6
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
65.0
93.3
73.3
68.3
83.3
85,0
56.2
87.5
S3 .3
75.0
77.1
83.3
72.7
77.3
90.9
81.8
90.9
95.5
37.0
67.4
47-8
95.7
95.7
73.9
68.3
75.0
65.0
96,7
86.7
86.7
37.5
70.8
75.0
77.1
83,3
75.0
90.9
84.1
68.2
90.9
95.5
90.9
73.9
65.2
82.6
82.6
91.3
91.3
April
May
June
66.7
66.7
85.0
86.7
85.0
76.7
41.7
70.8
79.2
83.3
70.8
79.2
72.7
63.6
61.4
75.0
84.1
81.8
26.1
60.9
65.2
87.0
91.3
87.0
July
August
September
63.3
81.7
58.3
78.3
81.7
75.0
58.3
64.6
66..7
75.0
75.0
70. 8
68.2
70.5
72.7
84.1
81.8
86.4
63.0
58.7
34.8
78.3
47-8
78.3
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
71.7
80.0
73.3
81,7
80.0
80.0
68.8
75.0
64.6
66.7
70.8
79.2
79.5
79.5
&U4
81.8
81.8
90.9
52.2
54*3
21.7
82.6
65.2
65.2
90.0
70.0
70.0
83.3
75.0
r76.7
54.2
62.5
91.7
81.2
r75.0
r75.0
68.2
72.7
75.0
81.8
79.5
84.1
73.9
60.9
21.7
73.9
r78.3
r73.9
April
May . .
June
41.7
61.7
r70.0
r70.0
p66.7
45-8
r66.7
r62.5
r?9.2
P75.0
84.1
79.5
84.1
90.9
90.9
73.9
41.3
r54.3
p65.2
July
August
September
r46.7
P56.7
r45.8
P47.9
77.3
68.2
r50.0
P60.9
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the
4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month
of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4
identifies the components for the indexes shown. The "r m indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.
SEPTEMBER 1969
91
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1969
Diffusion index components
February
January
March
May
April
Augustp
July
June
Dl, AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(Average weekly hours)
40,6 (52)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
+
+
+
o
o
-
40.1
+
(29)
40.9
(90)
-
r40.0
40.0
r40.6
r41.8
41.7
r41.8
+ 40.3
+
40.8
r40.1
+ r42.2
41.6
41.2
r42.5
40.4
41.4
40.7
r39.2
42.3
- r39.7
+ r41.6
39.7
- r37.6
+ r40.8
+ 40.9
+ r40.7
+ 42.3
+
41.9
+ r41.9
+ r42.7
+ 40.7
o
41.6
+ r40.7
+ 39.0
r40.6
r37.2
r40.6
36.2
r43.5
r38.4
41.9
41.8
r41.5
r37.6
+ 40.7
- r36.6
- r39.9
35.2
42.5
+
+
+
+
37.9
41.7
+ r42.6
40.7
- r35.3
+ 38.3
o r41.7
+. r43.2
+
41.4
+ 37.6
40.9
r36.5
r40.9
r36.0
r43.2
40.8
(48)
-
+
+
+
+
+
40.9
40.2
40.9
42.0
41.8
41.8
42.6
40.9
41.5
40.8
39.5
+
o
+
o
o
-
o
+
o
+
o
o
+
40.9 36.4 +
41.1 36.0 +
43.4 38.3 +
41.6 +
42,9 +
41.4 o
37.7 -
40,7
(43)
o
40.6 +
40.3 40.9 42.1 41.7 o
41.6 +
42.6 40.6 o
41.1 +
40.8 +
39.1 +
o
o
-
- 40.6
~
,+
o
r40.3
r39.8
P40.1
41.8
41.5
P41.5
r42.2
r40.3
r42.4
r40.8
r39.2
+ 40.5
o 39.8
+ 40.2
o 41.8
+ 41.7
- 41.4
+
o
o
-
42.4
40.3
42.2
40.8
39.1
-
r40.6
+
-
40.7
36.2
40.9
36.0
42.9
o
r40.9
40.2
HO. 7
41.9
P41.7
41.8
P42.5
40.6
41.6
40.9
39.2
40.8 - r40.7
38.1 + r;39.f>
41.0 + 41.2
36.1 + 36.2
43.0 - W.9
38.4
41.8
43«0'
41.4
37.6
40.7
(29)
40.7
(48)
- r38.1
+ P41.3
~ r36.1
+ r43.0
38.4
r41.8
r42.2
rAl.3
P37.4
+ r38.5
- 29,171
f40>
+r30,585
o r41.8
+ r42.8
- P41.1
- 37.1
(43)
- 38.4
o 41.8
+ 43.0
o 41.1
- 36.9
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
+ 29,684 + 30,482
(57)
Primary metals
Blast furnaces steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals.
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*.
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops.
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
+
+
+
+
(63)
4,666
4,675
2,12k - 2,071
+
...
... +
- 29,697
(40)
+ 30,944
4,614
2,110
4,806
+ 2,307
+
+
2,980
2^841
3,755
5,626
5,350
:+> *»
+
-
4,772
2,246
...
1}
696 +
340
+
+
417
860
339
J}
+
+
3,158
4,825
+ 2,308
+
+
. #.
3,119
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
(46)
+
+
+
- 29,998
(54)
+
5,650
*77
!> 585
676
+
+
350
685
429
504
439
+•
4,993
- (NA)
+
3,197
(NA)
+
5,579
5,627
5,433
(NA)
+} W
+
+
735
- 361
+
!} 500
1} (NA)
+
511
4+
+
-29,851
(46)
+
+
472 +
+
+
r5,l6l
+ 2,510
3,157
+
5,538
(57)
+
+
+
501
-
716
303
!} 540
+
664
+
314
+
•*•
+
561
489
+
+
+
+
+
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
4-
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers ; (+) -^ rising, (o) - unchanged, and (-) - falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA - not available. p - preliminary, r = n?visod. ^Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
are seasonally adjusted "by source ageney.
92
SEPTEMBER 1969
BCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1-Continued
(Millions of dollars)
3,581
Electrical machinery
•
Electrical transmission distr. equipment* ...... I) 627
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicles and parts, total
Complete aircraftt
-
.«
«
;} 723
+
•• •
3,928
;} *37
7,107
+
+
+
+
7,695
...
...
+
+
+
+
+
7,228
4,079
6,341
(NA)
;} (NA)
+
+
r7,070
+
+
+
•*. _ *
3,664
;} 711 -) 752
+ 800 +++ 1,242
+
+
+
+
+
961
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
3,710
!} 692
+
1,036
- 1,003 + 1,165 +
+
+
7,842
7,487
+
+
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
•.
Other transportation equipment .............
Instruments total
Lumber total
Furniture total
Stone clay and glass total
Other durable goods, total
:}+ w
- 1,020 +
+
+
+
Communication equipmentf
Electronic components.
Other electrical machinery*
3,746
3,767
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
(NA)
P7,063
+
+
+
+
...
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS2
(1941-43-10)
Index of 500 stock prices
-
102.04
-
(12)
Coal bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Textile products
Paper
Publishing
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
„
Building materials composite
Stppl
Metal fabricating
101.46 U3)
99.30 +
(13)
+
-f
*"
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+.
+
+
+
+
+
+
Electronics
*••
+
•" +
+
+
Radio and television broadcasters
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
+
_
+
—
+
_
™*
+
_
-
+
+
4.
+
+
"*
+
+
+
•**
+
_
~
4-
+
+
+
4-
+
*
+
...
...
94.71 - 94.18
(35)
(4)
_
_
_
**
—
—
_
-
- 99.14 (1)
_
_.
+
Tplpnhnnp rnmnflnip^
Flprtrir mmnsnip*;
Natural 03^ rli^tri hntnr^
101.26 + 104.62
(75)
(54^
-
o
+
-
-
+
+
_
+
-
_
_
-
_
_
+
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-} = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers areheld confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24. t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 647.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted "by the source agency.
Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in ta"ble E3.
2
BCII SEPTEMBER 1969
93
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
January
March
February
May
April
August
July
June
1
September
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES2
Industrial materials price
index (1957-59^10(5)
+ 106.9 + 109.3 4-
+ 103.4 + 106.3
no.4 +
in. 6
4
112.4 +
115.0 +
117.5
(Dollars)
Percent rising of ?3 co/nponenfs
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.). . . . , f
Steel scrap (ton) . . . . ,
Tinflb.)
Zinc(lb.)
Cotton (Ib.), 12-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (IbA
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
*
Tallow (Ib.)
(50
+
.480 + .059 +
+ 24.575 +
- 1.632 +
4.143 +
.156 +
.260 +
.210 +
- 1.60? .171 + 11.838 .225 4+
.048 +
(46)
(62)
(58)
(65)
(77)
,,56!
+
.480 +
.534 +
.545 +
.070 4
o
.066 4,074
.073 +
- 25.407 4 25.536 4 30.644 4- 31,283
- 1.584 - 1.567 - 1.565 4- 1,594
.150 4
.146 4,151
o
.144 +
.136 +
,140
.143 .154
.250 o
,250
.254
.255
,221
.224
.217 4+
.213 +
1,597
- 1.575 - 1.572 4- 1.584 4.190
.163 4
,179
.193
4 11.891 o H.893 4 11.964 o 11,964
,260
4.260 4.265
.255 4
4.056 4
,064
.059 +
.059 o
.448
.066
27.256
1,668
.144
.163
.256
.212
1.576
.164
11.803
.247
.049
(77)
(62)
+
+
+
o
4
o
4
+
4
.604 +
.577 +
.078 +
.079
29.774 + 31.408 +
1.617 + 1.663
.151 o
.151 +
.145
.143 +
.249 +
-257 o
.221 o
.221
1.572 + 1.578 +
.168 +
.172
12.410 + 12.550 +
.278 +
.304
,076 +
.068 +
(65)
.603
.075
34.610
1.652
.159
.148
-257
.220
1.595
.198
12.702
.289
.081
05. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS3
(Thousands)
Avg. weekly initial claims ... +
Percent rising of 47 components
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (20)
Newark (11),
New York (1)
Paterson (21)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (22)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26).
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23).
Kansas City (19).
Milwaukee (18)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12}
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (16)
•f
+
+
184
4-
(55)
-
::
+
4-
+
(38)
176
180
(49)
(57)
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
186
179
(72)
+
+
...
...
+
-
4
+
+
+
4
...
+
+
4
r
4
4
4
4
4
4.
4
4
+
+
201 +
(23)
4
4
4-
+
4
4
4
4
+
+
• ••
+
+
+
4*
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
4+
+
+
4
+
+
+
+
.... 4-
4-
...
+
4
+
+
• •*
+
+
+
+
+
4+
+
196
(60)
+
+
4
4
4-
4-
+
4-
197 +
(51)
4.
+
4+
+
+
+
+
-f
+
+
:s
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the.month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+} rising, (o) ^ unchanged, and (-) - falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Average for September 2, 9, and 16.
2
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
3
The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(-) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (+) = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before
the direction of change is determined. Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month. Directions of change are
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its si^e rank.
94
SEPTEMBER 1969
ltd*
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
January
February
March
May
April
June?
July
August?
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 1
(Thousands of employees)
+
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabri cated metal products
Machi nery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Servke and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
69,199 +
(90)
69,487 +
(70)
69,710 + 69,789 +
(70)
(42)
70,013 +
(62)
70,300 o r70,269 +
(70)
(47)
192
188
+
196
197
195 +
193
528
528
+
528
530
527 +
525 +
412
410 o
410 +
411
+
407 +
413
526 +
532
529
+
534 +
535
537
+ 1,051 + 1,058 + 1,063 - 1,057 + 1,062 + 1,076 -11,118 +
1,121 +
1,121 1,122 +
+ 1,109 + 1,115 +
+ 1,359 + 1,370 - 1,363 + 1,370 - 1,366 + 1,377 + 1,344 + 1,355 + 1,364 + 1,369 + 1,381 - 1,379 +
1,426 + 1,432 - 1,420 - 1,399 + 1,434 +
+ 1,439 +
288 +
292 +
292 o
292
289 +
294
348
346 +
348 +
347 +
349
o
351
1,201 41,205 + 1,206
+ 1,205 + 1,215 - 1,208 -
68 +
69 o
69
69 o
69
+
71
880
883
+
885
871 +
875
873 o
+ 1,254 - 1,238 + 1,246 + 1,252 + 1,255 o 1,255 +
550 +
556
554 +
555
555 o
549 +
672 +
672
669 +
674 o
673
+
673
620 o
620
623
617 o
617 +
o
617 +
+
118
o
118
+
116
+
101
+
119 o
73
448 +
449 +
+
444 +
451 +
449 o
455 +
300 o
300
302
+
306
301
299 o
626
622 +
622 o
628
+
626 +
624
3,466 +
3,338 + 3,366 + 3,37£ 3,407 +
3,363 +
4,467 +
4,444 +
4,439 +
4,353 + 4,373 + 4,399 +
3,726 + 3,737 + 3,758 +
+ 3,701 + 3,7U +
3,774 o
+ 10,711 + 10,754 + 10,782 + 10,796 + 10,851 + 10,891 +
+
3,490 + 3,502 + 3,515 + 3,531 + 3,541 + 3,557 +
+ 10,900 + 10,967 + 11,034 + 11,044 + 11,065 o 11,066 2,790 + 2,760 + 2,767 2,754 +
2,759 o 2,758 9,386 + 9,453 +
+ 9,321 + 9,355 +
9,469 o
9,373 +
r!87
r523
r406
r524
r 1,063
rl,123
rl,375
rl,384
r 1,444
r289
r349
rl,206
r68
r873
rl,247
r555
r674
r620
rl!9
r457
299
r628
r3,414
r4,489
r3,773
rlO,906'
r3,569
rll,055
r2,777
r9,472
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
70,436
(57)
186
523
403
526
1,095
1,127
1,382
1,388
1,545
290
346
o 1,206
+
71
866
- 1,241
+
558
o
674
618
118
452
+
300
o
628
- 3,371
4,482
+ 3,786
+ 10,924
+ 3,584
+ 11,110
2,753
+ 9,492
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1957-59-100)
All industrial production
+
Percent rising of 24 ^components 2
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery . •
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Mi seel laneous
169.1 +
(54)
+
+
170.1 +
(62)
171.4 +
(92)
171.7 + rl72.5 + 173.8 + r!74.6 - 174.3
(62)
(46)
(48)
C46)
(67)
a43!6 + 146.*2 + wi? + rl49*.3 +
139.' 5 +
176:4 + 177.6 + 178.5 - 178.3 + 179.2 +
154.*6 1B0.8 -
1-152! 2
r!78.8
151
179
+
+
+
-
+ 156.*2 +
153 .*4 + 155 ."l + 156. *9 156*. 5 - 122.5 + 126.7 + 130.8 - 122.6 - 120.7 -
rl97! 6
r200.7 +
rlB1.5
r!92.9 +
+
155. *3 153 !i +
H5.5 - P115.4
196
202
181
194
140
154
(NA)
+ 186!8 _
186!5 +
+ 166.2 - 164.7 +
189^9 - r!86!6
168.1 ^ r!66.6
183
pl65
+
188 [3
+ 196.4
171.2
+ 191.6
+ 189.6 + 190.2 +
200.7 + 196.9 +
+ 173.1 + 174.1 +
192.8
+
- 190.4
190.8
199.5
172.4
195.4
195^3
+ 193*.! +
+ 201.8 - 199.5
- 171.8 + 176.6
- 195.3 + 195.7
187!6 +
188^9 + 19o!2 165-7 + 167.6 - 167.5 +
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions
of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded.
SEPTEMBER 1969
95
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
March
February
January
May
April
June
July
August
047. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION^Continued
(1957-59=100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products*
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
152 [9 148.1 105.0 -
152.0 +
147. 9 +
101.3 +
152.9 +
150.2 105.6 -
154.2 + rl!?o!5 + r!57.8 147.8 + r!50.0 - P349.9
103.4 + r 1(77. 6 - pl04.8
rl45.0
p!54.9
(NA1)
(NA)
+ 171!! +
+ 152.4 -
173^9 +
152.1 +
175 .'6 +
153.0 -
175 is - rl74! 9 + r!75il +
152.7 + 155.9 + r!56.5 +
plt'i.9
158.1 o
(NA)
p!5B
-
23l!3 +
131.0 +
230.8 +
234.*4 +
140.2 +
232.8 +
235 '.2 +
142.7
236.2 -
+ r224.0 +
239^1 + r239^5 - r239!l + p240.6
142.2
+ 143.5 + r!4S.4 - p!42.0
234.2 + P237.0 + p240.4
(NA)
P22S
-
+
+
139^4 +
H9.5 +
140.9 +
121.2 -
141.5 »
118.7 -
140.5 110.5 +
-
H5.3 123.9 -
112.4 +
121.8 +
114.3 +
123.5 +
120.2 +
126.9 +
+
-
340.2 +
143.5 +
142.7 +
149.2 +
149.1 150.5 -
146.6 141.4 -
-
P143
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
pl65
(NA)
(NA
(NA)
+
138.3 +
138^6 - rl3fi!3 + p!39.6
(NA)
115.4 + p!21..9
pUO
(WO
(NA)
123.9 - rl09.5 + r!23.7
129.6 + rl34.8 - 132.5 +
+
rl34,5 + rl37,4 + P142.2
141.2 +
142;. 6 - p!40.4
Pll7
P133
P143
(NA)
(NA)
Minerals:
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining.
Stone and earth minerals
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2
(1957-59=100)
All manufacturing industries
+
Percent rising of 22 components
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery .
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
111.3 +
(68)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
137.8
105.3
110.6
107.5
127.2
109.3
119.6
118.5
+
o
o
115.7
103.5
106.5
112.5
111.7 +
(73)
112.2 +
112.4 +
(84)
(75)
112.8 +
(80)
+
+
+
+
144.5
105.4
111.2
108.0
+
+
+
+
149.5
105.7
111.9
108.8
+
+
+
143.3
105.8
112.3
108.9
+
+
+
138.0 105.9 o
112. 6 +
109.9 +
+
+
+
+
+
o
o
128.9
109.4
120.4
119.1
116.1
103.5
106.4
112.5
+
+
o
+
129.9
109.6
120.4
119.8
+
+
o
+
132.4
110.2
120.4
120.0
+
+
+
+
134.2
1L0.8
020.5
120.3
+
+
0
116.5
104.2
106.3
112.5
+
+
+
+
U6.6
104.3
106.4
112. 7
+
+
+
+
117.6
104.5
106.5
112.8
113.2 +
(£4)
129.8
105.9
112.8
110.3
+ 135.5
+
113.. 0
+ 120.7
+ 121.2
+ 137.8
+ 104.7
+ 106.6
+
115.1
+
+
+
-*•
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
113.5 +
(77)
113.6
(68)
125.3
106.1
113.0
111.1
136.1
132.0
121.3
121.5
118.1
104.8
106.6
115.5
+
o
+
124.0
106.2
113.0
112.7
+
+
+
+
339.5
112.6
123.2
121.8
+
118.5
104.7
106.0
3J.5.9
+
116.0 + 116.3 + u.6.4 + H7.3 + 119.4 + 121.4 + 122.0
321.5
104.8 o 104.8 104.6 - 104.5 + 104.6 - 104.5 + 105.3 +
105.7
104.2 + 104.3 o
104.3 + 105.0 o 105.0
104.7 - 104.4 104.8
Manmade fiber textile products
92.8
92.1
92.6 +
+
92.4 +
92.6 +
92.3
92.7 92.7
Apparel
+ 112.7 o
U2.7 + 112. 8 + H3.0 112.9 + 113.3 + 133.9 *
115.8
Pulp, paper, and allied products
+ 106.2 + 106.8 +
108.1 + 10S.3 + 108.4 +
107.4 + 108.0 +
108.7
Chemicals and allied products
97.6 +
98.0
f
98.1 +
97.8 +
98.2 +
97.9
9^.3
98.7
Petroleum products, refined
98.9 +
101.7 + 102.5 102.4 + 103.3 - 103.2
99.5 +
102.5
Rubber and rubber products
- 100.0 + 100.5 +
100.9 +
101.2 101.1 + 101.2 + 102.5 +
103.0
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
126.1 123.4 + 126.0 f
+ 123.5 - 123.4 o
126.4
325.7 + 126.4 o
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) - unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change, are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA ^ not available, p - preliminary, r - revised.
are seasonally adjusted "by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
96
+
+
SEPTEMBER 1969
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
January
February
April
May
June1*
29,442 -
29,386 -
29,371 - r29,157 +
March
July
August?
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES 1
(Millions of dollars)
All retail sales
+
Percenf rising of 23 components . . * . . . . . . *
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
5,909
2,094
2,361
273
29,289 (61)
(74)
Grocery stores
+
Eating and drinking places
+
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . .
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel accessory stores
Shoe stores
25,989 +
+
+
+
+
5,955 2,123 2,924 298
28,916 +
(22)
(74)
5,883 2,107 +
2,895 +
296
5,839 +
2,133 +
3,080 294
(41)
5,906
2,186
3,011
285
(50)
(54)
+
+
29,327
(61)
5,868 o p5,8?0 +
2,191 - P2,118 +
2,991 + P3,116
294
P283 +
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
+
+
535
.406 +
622 +
249 +
534
416
645
261
517 +
393 +
615 +
245 +
558
414
649
266 o
546 +
399
633 +
266 +
552
375
640
296
+
+
+
+
P564 +
p382 +
p658
P315 +
(NA)
(NA)
fNA)
(NA)
+
+
+
876 +
446
958 +
261 +
920 +
431
1,049
281
922
400 +
992
269 +
903
436 +
974
287
902
455 +
943 +
281 +
895
478
951
283 +
p867 P456
p892
P292 -
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
+
+
+
+
5,157 +
417 +
2,097 979
634
5,172 435
2,091 +
959 +
603
+
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
5,099
419
2,132
960
601
+
+
+
+
5,145 427
2,106 +
963 +
619
5,102
414
2,119
996
615
+
o
+
5,220
414
2,086
975
627
-
P5,047
p408
+ p2,097
+
P993
+
P637
+
+
+
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) » unchanged, and (-) *= falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately. In March 1969 a new seasonal adjustment of the retail trade data was completed and the "basic data and directions of change in this table reflect that seasonal
adjustment.
2
K€l»
SEPTEMBER 1969
97
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q| CONSUMER PRICES
Year
and
month
133. Canada,
781. United
index of consumer
States, index of
consumer prices© prices®
132. United King- 135. West Germany 136. France,
index of consumer index of consumer
dom, index of
consumer prices© prices®
prices®
138. Japen, index
of consumer
price;;©
137. Italy, irtdex
of consumer
prices®
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
1967
January
February
March
115
115
115
117
117
118
129
129
129
123
123
123
141
141
142
153
154
154
137
138
138
April
May
June
115
116
116
119
119
120
130
130
130
124
124
124
142
142
142
154
153
152
138
138
139
July
August
September
116
117
117
121
121
121
130
130
129
124
^3
123
142
143
143
152
153
156
139
139
140
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
118
118
118
121
121
122
129
131
131
023
123
123
144
145
145
159
159
160
140
140
140
119
119
132
133
133
125
120
123
123
123
125
125
147
147
147
161
161
162
140
140
140
April
May
June
120
120
121
124
124
124
136
136
136
125
125
126
147
148
148
162
163
161
141
141
141
July
August
September
122
122
122
125
125
126
136
137
137
&
125
126
149
149
150
163
162
168
140
140
141
October....
November
December
1969
January
February
March
123
123
124
126
127
127
137
138
140
126
126
127
152
152
153
166
16?
166
141
HI
141
124
125
126
127
137
128
140
141
142
128
128
129
155
155
156
167
167
169
142
142
143
May
126
U27
128
129
130
131
143
143
143
129
129
129
156
157
158
173
171
171
143
143
144
July
August. ,
September
128
129
131
132
143
143
r!3Q
130
158
174
174
U5
(HA)
April
June
(1957-59=100)
(NA)
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted] series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
98
SEPTEMBER
1969
KCII
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Qj INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
47. United
States, index of
industrial production
123. Canada,
index of industrial production
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
126. France,
index of industrial production
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
1967
January
February
March
158
157
157
166
166
166
129
129
129
156
154
156
April
May
June
157
156
156
168
167
168
130
128
129
July
August
September
156
158
157
169
170
170
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
157
160
162
161
162
163
April
May
June
Year
and
month
125. West Germany, index of
industrial production
128. Japan, in- 121. OECD,1
dex of industrial European countries, index of
production
industrial production
127. Italy, index
of industrial production
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
r!51
r!50
150
298
295
304
rl54
r!54
154
r206
r208
r207
153
152
156
r!50
150
148
305
312
317
r!55
153
r!55
r210
r211
211
129
129
r!29
r!57
r!57
159
154
152
155
321
327
336
r!56
r!55
r!57
211
r208
r212
169
173
174
r!30
131
134
159
rl6l
rl64
r!57
r!57
r!70
338
346
349
r!58
159
164
r2l6
r2l6
r215
7172
172
173
133
134
135
rl64
rl65
r!69
r!59
rl6l
rl66
r348
354
351
rl6l
rl62
rl65
218
220
r221
162
164
166
175
176
179
133
135
136
167
116
r!36
rl65
167
180
362
372
373
164
r!56
rl64
222
r222
r223
July
August
September
166
165
165
178
178
180
137
138
136
171
171
r!71
rl67
r!78
177
382
r382
389
rl68
r!70
r!72
223
217
234
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
166
168
169
182
184
185
137
139
140
179
182
184
176
185
187
397
407
r401
174
177
r!79
235
226
233
169
170
171
185
187
191
139
139
139
183
180
180
186
189
190
r403
410
405
179
179
180
238
r233
r240
April
May
June
172
rl?2
174
187
186
P187
rlU
rUO
P-U-1
185
185
183
189
195
r!97
428
429
r435
r!82
183
P184
r242
r236
'p242
Juiv
August
September
175
P174
(NA)
(NA^
(NA)
p!89
(NA)
P444
(NA^
(NA)
(NA)
October
November
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
^•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
ItCII SEPTEMBER 1969
99
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q STOCK PRICES
Year
and
month
143. Canada, index
19. United States,
of stock prices®
index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks ®
(1957-59=100)
1967
January
February
March
(1957-59-100)
142. United Kingdom, index of
stock prices ®
146. France, index
of stock prices ®
145. West Germany, 148. Japan, index
of stock prices ©
index of stock
prices®
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-89=100)
147. Italy, index
of stock prices ®
(1957-59-100)
171
177
181
175
180
182
157
156
159
99
103
98
148
156
159
184
188
185
185
186
186
167
171
172
96
99
98
158
155
154
July
August
September
189
192
194
189
194
198
176
177
187
94
99
231
no
156
175
182
215
209
^9
133
139
October
November
December
194
188
193
192
188
189
196
203
200
109
106
103
182
192
194
213
206
198
143
139
U5
1968
January.
February
March
193
184
181
189
177
171
202
208
213
107
104
113
205
209
207
203
203
209
134
130
133
194
235
246
252
117
m
216
220
136
204
183
1ft %
Ift7
1O7
219
226
22Q
235
13 *>
133
July
August
September
203
19/L
265
103
230
2A3
OT2
£(£
970
~\f\C
1U?
OQT
<?-L
<O^-
136
1 1.&
XJ0
205
1 Q9
J.y<c
i ort
lf)C
9?A
<(O
-k?o
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
210
203
270
104
228
275
131
91 J,
POA
2&L
210
1O5
10Q
ooy.
216
27Q
97Q
219
266
127
13i
207
206
201
291
282
270
113
121
130
228
230
231
279
213
282
279
April
May
June
205
212
201
213
224
209
266
253
128
136
124
233
243
247
293
302
304
April
May
June
April
May
June
July
August
September
198
1 QQ
J-77
TOO
191
niO'3
91 A
208
1 QQ
199
p204
235
9?A
191
rr>22*5
p228
**T)12'7
oqft
<?o
TT12A.7
pl26
ivjcq
V&jj
223
142
141
127
229
228
129
132
130
223
231
231
OCI
1?6
•}TtL
13^
133
136
152
153
150
'5AA
,?UU
rO y *7
P-L*ff
'?Q3
t»«1 ^1
rpi-px
n'?QA
tVI O
P-LpX
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of tho book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
100
SEPTEMBER 1969
ItCII
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered
Monthly series
Cl
c
T
T/C
I/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
MCD
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
'*'!. Average workweek of production workers, mfg..... Jan.'53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Dec. '68..
5. Avg. initial claims, State unemploy. insurance .... Jan. '53-Jan. '69..
Jan.'53.June'68..
Jan. '59-Sep. '67 . .
7. Private nonfarm housing starts....
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-June '68..
'53-Sep. '67 . .
'53-Sep. '67..
0.46
1.85
4.76
3.48
7.24
0.40
1.44
4.22
3.08
6.97
0.19
.96
2.02
1.37
1.48
2.14
1.51
2. -09
2.24
4.71
3
2
3
3
5
6.42
8.47
4.55
.81
2.54
6.13
8.38
4.23
.60
2.24
1.61
1.05
1.37
.55
.95
3.81
7.96
3.09
1.09
2.35
21.95 21.41
.50
.61
2.46
1.65
1.32
1.04
4.01
3.66
2.04
.27
1.64
.79
1.45
10.47
1.89
1.01
1.30
2.53
.82
.72
.68
.92
2.20
2.12
1.75
1.83
1.63
1.49
1.59
1.47
1.53
1.51
9.78
10.05
12.00
9.74
8.67
4.05
3.80
4.13
3.89
2.78
5
6
4
2
3
.79
C1)
.84
.62
.83
1.57
1.52
1.80
2.89
1.85
1.45
1.47
1.53
1.57
1.56
9.26
13.54
10.28
7.33
8.38
3.44
3.00
3.25
4.61
3.16
6
3
2
2
3
C1)
.87
.56
.92
.86
1.50
2.51
2.44
2.55
1.93
1.45
1.68
1.60
2.15
1.57
9.14
6.06
9.78
11.73
13.21
2.46
4.13
4.38
3. .80
3.16
0.73
8.
9.
*10
*12.
13.
Construction 'contracts, total value. . .
Construction contracts, commercial and indus
Contracts and orders plant and equipment
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
„
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
14
*17.
*19.
*23.
24.
Liabilities of business failures (§).
Ratio r price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
Stock prices, 500 common stocks: © .
Industrial materials prices ©.
New orders, machinery and equipment industries...
Jan. '53-Jan. '69..
Jan. '53-Sep. '68..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-June '68..
*29.
*41
42.
46.
*47.
New building permits, private housing .
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls'
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Help-wanted advertising
„
Industrial production
Jan.'53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-May'68..
Jan. '53-Jan. '69..
Jan! '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '68,.-
3.90
.31
.34
2.96
.95
3.34
.14
.26
1.79
.51
1.66
.27
.21
2.22
.71
2.02
.52
1.28
.80
.72
3
1
2
1
1
.66
.52
.64
.80
.72
1.93
4.72
2*26
2,98
3.30
1.56
1.51
1.54
1.48
1.62
12.57
20.44
16.00
7.65
11.75
3.28
4.72
3.90
2.98
3.30
48.
49.
*52.
53
*54
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
Personal income
„
Wages salaries in mining mfg. construction
Sales of retail stores
...............
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Jan. '69..
'53-Dec. '67..
'53-Dec. '67..
'53-Dec. '68..
.43
2.93
'.54
.83
.92
.31
1.65
.26
.50
.77
.30
2.19
.48
.63
.47
1.03
.75
.53
.79
1.65'
2
1
1
1
2
.52
.75
.53
.79
2.75
3.43
5.42
2.84
2.15
1.54
1.73
1.58
1.53
1.57
11.73
11.29
25.57
13.77
14.69
5.00
3.43
5.42
2,84
3.39
.55.
*56
58,
*62
65.
Wholesale prices, industrial commodities @
Manufacturing and trade sa les
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods ©
Labor cost per unit of output manufacturing
Book value, mfrs.' inventories of finished goods. . .
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Dec. '68, .
'53-Sep. '68..
'53-Sep. '68..
'53-June '68..
.17
1.01
.20
.59
.60
.11
.74
.15
.46
.27
.13
.62
.13
.32
.52
.84
1.19
1.19
1.45
.51
1
2
2
2
1
.84
.62
.73
.51
4.09
2.51
3.36
2.51
3.30
1.66
1.52
1.81
1.63
1.53
9.26
10.61
11.06
6.48
14.23
4.09
3.96
4.79
3.98
3.30
.93,
r91
Jan. '53-Oct. '68..
66. Consumer installment debt
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Jan. '53-June '68..
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories. . . Jan. '53-Sep. '68..
*72 Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Jan. '53-Dec. '68..
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Jan. '53-June '68..
.83
.11
.82
.14
1
.14
14.54
1.59
27.00
14.54
1.69
.54
.93
1.38
1.33
.18
.43
.50
.93
.50
.82
1.23
1.43
.36
.53
.41
2
1
1
1
.75
.36
.53
.41
1.91
6.96
4.15
5.14
1.50
1.58
1.50
1.62
16.82
26.86
27.29
15.42
2.92
6.96
. 4.15
5.14
814 Capital investment commitments
815. Inventory investment and purchasing
816. Profitability
Jan. '53-Sep. '68- •
Jan.'53-Nov.'68..
Jan. '53-Nov.'68Jan. '53-Nov.'68..
Jan. '53-Nov.'68..
.95
.91
.84
.81
.93
.48
.72
.64
.66
.51
.77
.49
.50
.42
.68
.62
1.47
1.27
1.57
.75
1
2
2
2
1
.62
.78
.62
.93
.75
3.92
2.21
2.16
2.26
3.28
1.54 10.44
11.18
1.53
1.^1 10.56
10.56
1.71
1.61
9.50
3.92
3.57
4.30
2.95
3.28
820 5 coincident indicators
830. 6 lagging indicators
Jan. '53-Oct. '68-.
Jan. '53-Sep. '68- .
Jan. '53-Sep. '68..
.97
.89
.89
.90
.43
.30
.28
.75
.83
3.14
.57
.36
3
1
1
.90
.57
.36
1.63
4.37
6.96
1.45
1.48
1.52
12.60
17.09
20.89
3.53
4.37
6.96
'53-Sep. '68..
'53-Oct. '67- •
'63-May'68..
'57-May'68..
'53-Oct. '67..
.20
3.58
10.41
6.62
2.87
.15
3.36
10.28
6.39
2.69
.13
.90
1.13
1.79
.87
1.19
3.74
9.13
3.57
3.09
2
4
6
4
4
.73
.90
C1)
.90
.73
3.36
1.82
1.42
1.60
1.79
1.81
1.62
1.36
1.49
1.62
11.06
11.80
12.80
9.07
11.80
4.79
3.41
2.57
2.77
3.48
9.74
1.37
2.00 13.04
2.61 7.98
1.65 12.04
1.82
.13
6
6
6
6
3
( X1 )
C )
C1)
.76
1.44
1.43
1.48
1.52
2.41
1.47
1.46
1.43
1.42
1.71
8.50
9.33
9.78
10.28
8.55
2.06
1.96
2.59
2.22
4.65
1.56
2.21
.69
1.17
.76
.27
2
.97
.90
.69
.70
.76
.27
2.62
1.98
4.48
2.62
3.67
50.67
9.70
1.70
8.08
1.56
11.06
1.63
7.46
1.70
10.53
1.63
1.54 152.00
3.57
4.00
4.48
3.33
3.67
50.67
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
58.
502.
506.
508
512.
Jan.
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods @
Exports, excluding military aid2
Jan.
Export orders, durables except motor vehicles .... Jan.
Export orders nonelectrical machinery.
Jan.
General imports2
Jan.
616 Defense Department obligations total
621. Defense Department obligations, procurement
625. Military contract awards in U.S..
July
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Sep. '67..
'56-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '67. .
'53-June '681.
'53-Sep. '68..
13.58
26.22
20.91
20.01
.29
13.32
26.08
20.82
19.93
.24
751.
752
781
782.
783
784.
Jan. '53-Mar. '69..
Jan. '53-Mar. '69..
Jan. '53-Sep. '68..
Jan. '53-Mar. '69..
Jan. '56-Mar. '69..
Jan. '56-Sep. '68..
.60
1.16
.20
.38
.18
.26
.48
1.02
.11
.27
.11
.07
Wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds
Wholesale prices farm products
Consumer prices all items ©
Consumer prices, food
Consumer prices commodities less foods .......
Consumer prices! services <u)
.31
.46
.16
.23
.14
.26
•a
1
2
1
1
C 1)
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.
101
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes- Continued
Period
covered
Monthly series
Cl
1
C
Tc
I/C
for
MCD
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
MCD
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
851.
852,
853.
855.
856.
859.
Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Jan. '53-Dec. '68.
Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods . Jan. '53-Apr. '68 .
Ratio, production of bus. equip, to consumer goods. Jan. '53-June'68.
Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled to unemployed Jan.'53-Jan.'69.
Real avg. hourly earnings, production workers, mfg.Jan. '53-Dec. '67 .
Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers
Jan. '64-Dec.'67..
0.94
1.87
.95
5.37
.39
1.62
.62
3.24
.36
o.aa
0.44
.88
.63
3.92
.18
1.86
1.84
.99
.83
2.03
2
3
1
1
3
0.95
.74
.99
.83
.77
2.51
2.13
2.72
3.20
3.14
1.59
1.63
1.62
1.55
1.56
.32
.28
.13
2.04
3
.74
1.96
1.57 11.75
3.21
121.
122
123.
125
126
OECD European countries, industrial production . . Jan. '53-Dec. '67 ..
.89
Jan. '53-Sep. '67.. 1.04
United Kingdom industrial production
.81
Canada, industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Dec. ':67.. 1.72
West Germany industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . . 1.19
France industrial production . »
.83'
.98
.67
1.59
1.07
.56
.37
.55
.63
.62
1.49
2.63
1.21
2.53
1.71
2
3
2
3
2
.82
.94
.56
.68
.87
3.98
2.38
4.29
2.06
3.45
1.54
1.45
1.41
1.43
1.4S
16.27
7.74
4.14
6.4S
4.32
9.21
127
128
132.
133.
135
Italy industrial production
Japan industrial production
United Kingdom, consumer prices©
Canada, consumer prices©
West Germany consumer prices®
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. ?'53-Sep. '67..
Jan. 53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
1.43
1.69
.45
.25
.32
1.28
1.17
.49
.31
.36
.72
1.23
.27
.19
.22
1.78
.95
1.82
1.66
1.65
2
1
3
2
3
.98
.95
.73
.93
.75
2.79
3.59
6.29
9.26
8.00
1.66
1.39
1.68
2.00
1.98'
136.
137.
138
142.
143
France, consumer prices®
Italy, consumer prices®
Japan consumer prices®.
..
United Kingdom, stock prices®
Canada stock prices @
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
.52
.33
.81
3.13
2.77
.44
.35
.74
2.49
2.13
.39
.31
.38
1.68
1.61
1.14
1.14
1.95
1.48
1.33
2
2
3
2
2
.59
7.04
.61 19.56
.69 3.09
.90 2.63
.87 3.26
a. ao
1.54
a.38
1.80
1.64 10.35
1.71 a. oo
1.78 11.00
145.
146.
147.
148.
West Germany, stock prices®
France, stock prices ®
Italy, stock prices®
Japan, stock prices®
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
3.34
4.00
3.78
3.60
2.03
3.35
3.00
2.44
2.37
1.87
1.89
2.29
.86
1.79
1.59
1.07
1
3
3
2
.86
.66
.72
.64
1,85
1.68
1.85
1.68
11.24
12.20
8. 81
B. 35
10.53
4.32
4.31
2.72
3.20
7.03
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep. '67..
'53-Sep, '67..
3.52
2.48
2.44
3.26
a. 80
10.35
19.89
16.00
29.33
13.54
14.67
11.00
11.73
7.33
7.33
a. BO
7.04
4.07
3.59
8. 70
12.50
11.60
7.61
25.00
6.96
3.72
3.98
3.52
4.14
5.12
4.49
x
^Series included in
the 1966 NEER "short list" of 26 indicators.
® Measures are based on unadjusted data.
Not shown
2
when MCD is M6."
Meaeures based on data adjusted for abnormalities during the periods December 1952-Mareh 1963 and December
1964-May 1965 due to effects of strikes.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business
Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper
57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957
(reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957).
"CI" is the average month-to-month percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
(i.e., the series after adjustment for measurable seasonal,
trading-day, and holiday variations).
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by
dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-month
spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc,), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar.,
Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span. MCD is the shortest span in months for which the
102
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) iin the irregular component,
and remains so.
Thus, it indicates the point at which
fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series
with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
adjusted series. It is shown for 1-month spans and^for spans
of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", noT/C ratio is
shown for the MCD period.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C,
and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is an unweighted
moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD)
of the seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1—Continued
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1adjusted series has been successfully separated into an
month intervals in a random series, the expected value of
essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom)
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
component.
Finally, ADR is 4.13 for the MCD moving
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month interaverage. This indicates that a 2-month moving average of
vals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the
the seasonally adjusted series (2 months being the MCD
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of
span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4
CI is 1.75 for the series on average weekly initial claims,
months. The increase in the ADR from 1.^5 for CI to 4.13
State unemployment insurance (series 5). This indicates
for the MCD moving average indicates that, for this series,
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on
month-to-month changes in the MCD moving average usually
the average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a
reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series,
random series. The ADR measures shown in the nexr two
whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adcolumns, 1.47 forland 12.00forC, suggest that the seasonally
justed series usually do not.
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Monthly Series: Average Actual Changes
Period
covered
Monthly series
Unit of
measure
CI
T
G
r/c
i/c
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
for
MCD
span
CI
2.07
2.41
1
c
MCD
1.55
1.57
11.75
7.52
3.56
5.03
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Jan.'53-Sep.'68. Per 100
employees .
Jan. '53-Sep.'68. . . do
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
20. Change in book value, manufacturers'
Jan. '53-June'68. Ann. rate,
bil. dol. ...
inventories of materials, supplies,
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. . Jan. '53-June'68. Bil.'dol
2. Accession rate manufacturing
26. Buying policy, production materials, commitments 60 days or longer ©
*31, Change in oook value, manufacturing and
trade inventories .
32. "Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries ©
33 Change in mortgage debt
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
40
*43.
*44
45.
Unemployment rate married males
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment rate 15 weeks and over
Average weekly insured unemploy rate
0.18
.16
0.17
.15
0.06
.06
3.08
2.43
4
3
0.81
.85
1.41
.48
1.35
.45
.29
.13
4.60
3.54
6
4
C1)
.96
1.47
1.57
1.70" "l.6l"
2.86
2.62
2.53
3
.80
1.86
3.72
3.62
.76
4.74
5
.98
Pet. reporting
Jan.'53-Sep.'68.
Jan. I 55-Jan. t 69. Ann. rate,
bil. dol. ...
3.43
2.76
1.85
1.49
2
1.03
.90
.38
2.33
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. Pet. reporting
Jan. 'M-Aug.'68. Percent
Nov. '54-Jan. '69- ...do
Jan. '53-Jan. '691. ... do
Jan. '53-Jan.- W ...do
Jan.'53-Sep. '68- . - - d o
3.06
.05
.15
.18
,07
.16
2.57
.04
.12
.14
.06
.09
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. Pet reporting
Jan.'53-Sep. ? 68. Ann. rate,
bil. dol. . . .
1.03
1.35
.02
.081
.10!
.05;
.12
6.85
8.04
3.05
3.19
1.63
8.95
3.65
1.48
1.41
6.27
2.52
.97
3.03
1.86
8.17
3.74
3
.80
1.98
1.60
1.91
1.78
1.58
1.47(
1.17|
.72
3
2
2«
2!
1
1.65
7.83
.78 2.41
1.77
.75 2.49
7.67
.88 ,3.95 1.52
11.33
.76 2.56' 1.50
7.68
.60 4.92 ! 1.66, 7.68
1.79
7.52
.72 4.82
3.72
4.09
4.33
3.75
6.59
4.82
7.83
1.61
6
2
C1)
.96
1.40
1.36
10.76
2.87
2.07
1.59
9.26
3.13
4.97
6
(L)
,1.52
1.41
7.04
2.78
9.78
2.60
6
3
x
( )
.88
1.56
1,69
1.56
1.52
10.78
11.81
3.83
3.22
1.00
1.47
1.65
1.82
.53
2
3
3
3
1
.62
.68
.71
.83
.53
2.61
2.72
2.32
2.58..
8.55
1.81
1.96
1.71
1.86
1.94
6.27
7.83
10.44
8.55
7.23
3.74
4.89
3.87
4.04
8.55
3.58
4
.86.
1.62
1.57
9.32
3.55
85 Change in money supply
Jan. '53-Apr. '68. Ann. rate,
.37
2.85
2.87
percent —
93. Free reserves®.
Jan. '53-Sep. 'fi7. Mil. dol
93.44 75.38 46.88
98. Change in money supply and time deposits. . .Jan. '53-Apr. '68- Ann. 'rate,
2.38
.48
percent. - . . 2.42
Aug. '59-Sep.'67. Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
,28
2.72
2.77
*113. Change in consumer installment debt.
jan.'53-0ct.'68, ...do
.92
.32
.84
114. Treasury bill rate©
116. Corporate bond yields @
117. Municipal bond yields ©
118. Mortgage yields, residential ©
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. Percent ....
Jan. '53-Sep. '68- ...do
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. ... do
Jan. '53-Sep. '68. ...do
Jan.'53*Sep.'68. ...do
.15
.06
.11
.08
.04
.10
.05
.10
.07
.02
.10
.04
.06
.04
.03
11.20
3.53
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
500. Merchandise trade balance3.
Jan.'53-0ct.'67. Mil. dol
.57.74
55.59
15.55
^'Series included in the 1966 ftfBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
^-Not shown
2
3
when MCD is "6."
Bimonthly series; average changes, MCD, and average durations of run are for "bimonthly spans.
Measures
based on data adjusted for abnormalities during the periods December 1962-March 1963 and December 1964-May 1965 due to effects
of strikes.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This
method is used for series with zero or negative data and for
other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
expressed in percent.
Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month change in the
seasonally adjusted series.
This average is computed
without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of
measure as the series itself.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the ,same meaning as in part 1,
103
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are publisher in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically fora long period of time. See trie "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ® (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title, Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
$11.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Nov.
Oct
Dec.
IQ
II Q
COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADERS* ORIGINAL TREND 1 (1963*100)
II! Q
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE
1945.*
.. *
1948..
1949*.
1950*.
90.3
30.8
BO. 2
68.2
78.9
80.9
87.7
77.1
82.3
89.1
74.9
84.1
88.4
74.2
66.3
89.6
74.1
88.2
88*6
74.3
91*8
87.8
76.0
96.7
86.1
78.0
96.2
66.0
77.0
95.9
64.4
78.3
96.2
83, .4
78,8
97*6
88.7
78.9
81.1
89*0
74*4
86.2
67.6
76.1
94.9
84*6
78*0
96*6
87.5
76.9
89.7
1951..
1952..
1953..
101.2
89.9
91.8
99.1
89.8
90.9
98.3
89.3
90.6
95.6
88*3
90.0
95.4
87.6
89.1
92.4
88.7
87.3
89.8
87.3
87.9
88.6
88*6
86.0
89.3
91.4
83.5
89,. 7
90*2
82.7
90. D
90.3
80.9
90.0
90 * 7
81, ,1
99.5
89.7
91.1
94.5
88*2
88.6
69.2
89.1
85.3
89*9
90.4
81.6
93.3
819.3
86.8
1954.,
1955..
1956..
80.9
92.5
97.4
61.5
94*5
96.6
80.8
95.2
96.8
82.4
95.1
97.5
82.9
95.4
96.1
83.7
96.2
95.2
64*7
97.0
94.1
84.9
97.2
95.6
86.3
98.6
94.9
87.3
97.6
95.2
88.2
97.8
95.9
90*0
98*2
95.6
81.1
94.1
96.9
83.0
95.6
96.3
65*3
97.6
94.9
86*5
97.9
95*6
04.5
96.3
95*9
1957..
1958*.
1959..
94.6
84.3
95.4
94.4.
$2.2
96.6
94.2
82.5
98.5
92.8
82.2
99.7
93.0
84.0
99.6
93.1
85.9
99.4
92.5
68.0
98.3
92.6
89.2
96.6
90.4
90*5
96.7
88.1
92.2
95.9
87.1
93.9
94.4
85« 4
93 « 8
97«3
94.4
83.0
96.8
93.0
84.0
99.6
91.8
89.2
97.2
86.9
93*3
95*9
91.5
87. V
97.4
I960..
1961..
1962..
97.7
89.4
97.4
97.1
90.0
98.3
95.2
91.2
98.1
95.2
92.5
98.2
94*8
93.4
97.1
94.3
94.0
95.7
93.6
94.3
96.0
92.5
95.7
96.3
92.3
95.2
96.5
90.9
96.5
96.3
90.2
97.5
97.3
89,, 2
97,, 6
97*5
96.7
90.2
97.9
94.8
93.3
97.0
92*a
95.1
96.3
90.1
97.2
97.0
93.6
93*9
97.1
1963..
1964..
1965..
97.5
103.1
109.7
98.0
103.7
109.7
98*6
103.8
110.9
98.9
104.9
111.2
100.2
105*4
111.6
100.2
105.3
111.5
100.2
105.5
111.7
100.3
105.7
111.4
100.9
106.7
111.5
101*9
106.6
112.5
101.5
106.9
113.4
101*9
108*7
114,8
98.0
103.5
110.1
99.6
105.2
111.4
100. 5
106.0
111.5
101.8
107.4
113.6
100*0
105.5
111.7
1966..
1967..
I960..
115.1
108.8
111.3
116.2
107.3
113.1
116.9
107.0
113.1
115.9
107.1
112.8
114.6
107.9
113.4
114.1
109.0
113.6
113.5
108.9
114.6
111.7
110.6
114.5
110*6
110.3
115.4
109.7
110.8
117.9
108.9
111.8
117.5
108*5
113* 4
118,2
116.1
107.7
112.5
114.9
108*0
113.3
111*9
109.9
114*9
109*0
112.0
117*9
113.0
109*4
114.6
1969..
117.8
119.0
118*3
119*8
119.4
118.1
118.0
117.2
118.4
119.1
* **
* *•
.•*
Note: See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
-The stops involved in constructing the eoniposite index of 12 leading indicators (series 011) are outlined below.
(SEPTEMBER 1969)
CONSTRUCTION OF THE COMPOSITE INDEX
1. For each component, compute a series of month-to-month percent changes using a modified formula: s =20Q(x.-x
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
) ~ xi+xi-l^ whore x. and x. are
the series values for months i-l and i, and ^ is the percent change between them. For series 31 and 113, which are already expressed ae change8, the
month-to-month differences are computed instead of percent changes. Series 16 is linearly interpolated into a monthly sorlQo before tho percent
changes are computed.
Standardize each series of changes by dividing it by its average without regard to sign. This puts each component on a equal basis; that is, eaeh hao
an average monthly change of 1.0 (without regard to sign).
For eaeh month, compute a weighted average of the 12 standardized changes. The components are weighted according to their GOore8 ao eoonomio indicators. See Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions by Geoffrey H. Moore and Julius Shiekin (NBER: New York, 1967) for details of tho
scoring system.
Standardise the resulting series of average changes so that its average is 1.0 without regard to sign. (See stop 2 above.)
Cumulate the standardised average changes into an index with an initial value of 100 using the formula: y.»y v(20Ofe.) 4 (200so.), where y. IB the
valuo of tho index for month i and ai is the standardized average change between months i-l and i,
i 1-1
i
I
i
Robase the index ao that 1963=100
The composite index of 12 leading indicators shown above (series 8ll) differs from the index in chart B7 and table B7 o£ Bualnoaa Conditions Difloat
because tho latter (aeries 8lO) has been "reverse trend adjusted." This extra adjustment gives the loading index, wMeh originally had a relatively flat
trend, a new trend equal t© that of the composite index of 5 coincident indicators (seriee 820); thus., it facilitates comparisons among tho leading,
coincident, and lagging indexes. It also tends to shorten the leads of the leading index at business cycle peaks, lengthen the leodo at troughs and
reduce the variability of the leads and lags. See "Reverse Trend Adjustment of Leading Indicators" by Julius Shiaki-a in The,Rfivigw_of Economies and
Statistioa (Vol. XLIX, No. 1, February 1967) for a discussion of reverse trend adjustment and its effects.
Tho procedure used to reverse trend adjust the composite index of 12 leaders is given below.
1. Compute the trend of the leading index (series 6ll) and the trend of the coincident index (series 820) by applying the eoaroound interest formula to
the centered averages of the first and last specific cycles (peak to peak) for each index. This results in trends of 0.107*and 0.457 pereent per month,
respectively, for the leading and coincident indexes.
2. Add tho difference between the two trends (0.350) to the standardized average changes in step 4 above, and continue through step*? 3 and 6 to get tho
reverse trend adjusted index.
104
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are puMished in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. Seethe 'Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol <§) (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have notbeen seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
810.
Apr.
May
June
Quarterly
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
COMPOSITE I N D E X OF 12 L E A D E R S , REVERSE TREND ADJUSTED
( 1963*100;
III Q
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE
* *•
...
.* .
19*8..
19*9..
1950..
*7.2
*4.0
*5.6
46.2
43.2
46.1
46.1
*2.3
47.1
47.0
41.2
48.3
46.9
41.0
49.8
47.6
*1.0
si. a
47.4
41.4
53.2
47.0
42.4
56.3
46.3
43.7
56.2
46*4
43.3
56*2
45.7
44.2
56*6
45.2
44.6
57.7
46.5
43.2
46.3
47.2
41.1
49.7
46.9
42.5
55.2
4S.8
44.0
56.8
*6.6
*2.7
52.0
1951..
1952..
1953..
60.0
55.5
59.1
58.9
55.7
58.8
58.6
55.6
58.8
57.2
55.2
58.6
57.3
54.9
58.2
55.7
55.8
57.3
54.3
55.1
57.8
53.8
56.1
56.8
54.4
58.1
55.4
54.8
57,6
55.1
55.2
57.8
54*0
55.4
58.2
54.4
59.2
55.6
58.9
56.7
55.3
58.0
54.2
56.4
56.7
55.1
57.9
54.5
56.3
56.3
57.0
195*..
1955..
1956..
54.4
6*. 8
71.2
5*. 9
66.4
70.9
5*. 7
67.2
71.3
56.0
67.4
72.1
56.5
67.8
71.2
57.2
68.6
70.8
58.2
69.5
70.3
58.5
69.8
71.7
59.7
71.1
71.3
60.6
70.fr
71.8
61.4
71.0
72.6
62*8
71.5
72.6
54.7
66.1
71.1
56.6
67.9
71.4
58.8
70.1
71.1
61.6
71.0
72.3
57.9
68.8
71.5
1957..
1958..
1959..
72.1
67.0
79.1
72.2
65.5
80.3
72.3
66.1
82.3
71.6
66.1
83*5
72.0
67.8
83.7
72.2
69.5
83.8
72.0
71.4
83.2
72.4
72.8
82.1
70.9
74.0
82*5
69.3
75.7
82.0
66.8
77.4
81.0
67.7
77.6
83*8
72.2
66.2
80.6
71.9
67.6
83.7
71.8
72.7
82.6
68.6
76.9
82.3
71.1
70.9
82.3
I960..
1961..
1962..
84.5
80.6
91.5
8*. 2
81.4
92.8
82.8
82.8
92.9
83.2
84.3
93.3
33.1
85.4
92.6
83.0
86.3
91.7
82.6
86.9
92.2
82.0
88.5
92.8
82*0
88*3
93*3
81*1
89t.7
93.5
80.8
91.3
94.7
80.3
91.5
95.2
83.8
31.6
92.*
83.1
85.3
92.5
82.2
87.9
92.8
80.7
90.7
94.5
82.5
86**
93.0
1963..
196*..
1965..
95.7
105.5
117.0
96.5
106.5
117.*
97.*
106.9
119.2
98.0
108.3
119.9
99.6
109.3
120.8
99.9
109.6
121.0
100.4
110.2
121.7
100.8
110.7
121.8
101*7
112.2
122.3
103.1
112.5
123.9
103.1
113.2
125.3
103.8
115.5
127.2
96.5
106.3
117.9
99.2
109.1
120.6
101.0
111.0
121.9
103.3
113.7
125.5
100.0
110.0
121.5
1966..
1967..
123.0
126.3
129.7
124.9
130.9
125.0
130.3
125,6
129.3
127.0
129.1
128.7
129.0
129.0
127.3
131.5
126.4
131.6
126.0
132.7
125*5
134.4
125.5
136.8
129.5
125.4
129.6
127.1
127.6
130.7
125.7
134.6
128.1
129.5
313.
COMPOSITE INDEX:
MARGINAL EMPLOYMENT ADJUSTMENTS — SERIES I t 2 , 3 , 5
( 1963=100)
AVERAGE
...
...
•. .
1946. .
19*8..
1949..
1950..
108.0
97.0
99.8
105.9
97.0
99.6
106.1
95.0
101.1
105.7
105.7
94.3
93.7
102. B 105.0
106.6
95.6
105.1
105.7
95.7
109.0
104.5
95.8
112.6
104*4
97*4
109.8
104.4
95.5
108.9
103.4
96.0
107.9
100*3
99.7
107*3
106.7
96.3
100.2
106*0
94.5
104.3
104.9
96.3
110.5
102.7
97.1
108.0
105.1
96.1
105.7
1951..
1952*.
1953..
110.9
105.*
110.2
110.2
106.3
109.8
110*9
105.8
109.7
109.4
104.2
109.9
107.6
105.4
107.2
106.5
104.4
107.3
103.8
99.5
105.2
101.7
107.1
103.5
102.5
110.6
100.4
103.3
110.7
99.5
104.8
110.8
97.3
105.3
109.7
97.4
110.7
105.8
109.9
107.8
104*7
108.1
102.7
105.8
103*0
104.5
110.*
98.1
106*4
106.7
104.8
195*..
1955..
1956..
95.7
101.9
103.8
95.7
103.3
101.8
95.6
10*. 0
102.3
9*. 9
104.1
103.5
96.0
105.2
1C1.2
96.3
103.3
101.3
97.2
102.8
101.5
97.0
103.5
102*2
96.8
105.2
102. 3
98.2
104.7
104.5
101.3
105.9
102.7
101.1
104.8
103.0
95.7
103.1
102.6
95.7
104.2
102.0
97.0
103.8
102.0
100.2
105.1
103.4
97.2
104.1
102.5
1957..
1958..
1959..
102.3
92.*
99.8
102.2
91.2
100.9
102.3
90.9
102.3
100.8
91.2
102.6
99.3
92.4
102.1
100.4
94.2
101.9
99.9
95.8
100.5
99.0
96*0
99.9
96.5
97.2
99.9
95.5
97.6
97.3
94.1
98*4
97.2
93.4
98.7
102*4
102.3
91.5
101.0
100.2
92.6
102*2
98.5
96.3
100.1
94.3
98*2
99.0
98.8
94*7
130.6
I960..
1961..
1962..
101.8
9*. 3
99.7
100.0
93.4
99.9
97.8
96.3
100.9
97.4
96.9
101.2
97.7
97.1
99.9
97.0
97.4
99.5
96.7
97.6
100.0
96.0
99*2
98.8
95.9
97.2
99*9
95.0
100.3
94.5
100.6
99.1
92.8
99.7
99.0
99.9
94.7
100.2
97.4
97.1
100.2
96.2
98.0
99*6
94,1
100.2
99*1
96.9
97.5
99.3
L963..
196*..
1965..
98.8
99.5
103.4
99.3
101.1
103.8
99.7
105.8
10*. 6
100.0
132.0
103.6
99.7
101.0
104.6
100.3
102.2
104.8
100.7
102.0
104.2
99.5
102.8
103.3
100.4
102.1
106.0
101*0
101.9
106.0
100.0
102.3
106.6
100.6
103.5
106.9
99.3
100.5
103.9
100.0
101.7
104.3
100.2
102.3
104.2
100.5
102.6
106.5
100.0
101. 8
104.7
1966..
1967..
106.9
106.4
107.4
103.0
109.*
101.8
109.3
102.3
108.6
103.8
107.9
103.8
106.2
103.8
108.6
105.0
108.2
104.9
108.4
104.9
106.9
105.7
105.8
105.7
107.9
103.7
108.6
103.3
107.7
104.6
107.0
105.4
107.8
104.3
Note:
9;9.1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
(SEPTEMBER
1969)
105
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically fora long period of time. See trie "Index-Series Finding Guide1* for the latest issue in wtiic'i
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have notboen seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
320 ( B J .
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
OcL
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
PERCENT CHANGES IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 3 COINCIOERS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
(ANN. RATEi PERCENT)
IIIQ
IV Q
AVERAGE
•**
.**
* **
1945* .
1946. .
1948..
1949..
1950..
Annual
. * . -12*7
-29.9
-15.4
29.9
5.3
7.8
-13.0
39*6
0*0
-13.1
17.9
20*5
-23.9
25.2
20.2
-10.8
32*0
10.0
-16.3
52.9
-2.4
11.0
46.1
2.5
19.2
-4.4
4.9
-56*6
15*6
-9.8
36*8
0*0
-12.4
11.0
35*2
.•*
-19.4
24.9
13*6
-15.9
25.0
3.4
4,6
31*5
-5.8
-2.9
16.9
* **
-8.4
24.6
1951..
1952..
1953..
36*2
0.0
0.0
14.5
17*9
19.6
6.1
4.0
12.2
10*2
0*0
0*0
6*1
3.8
7.0
-2.0
-5.9
0.0
-8.0
-19.6
3,5
4*1
43.7
-13.8
-4*1
38.3
-13.9
4.1
18.6
-8.8
10.1
12.8
-28.4
12*0
16.3
-31*0
7.3
10.6
-0.7
2*3
20.8
-8,1
15,9
-22.7
-4.5
1954*.
1955*.
1956..
-13.1
14.6
6*5
-1.9
14.4
4.8
-15.1
19.7
-1*6
-1.9
15.3
16.1
-3.8
19.1
-3.1
7.7
12.0
4.8
-5.8
16.9
-36.4
-1.9
-1*7
45.6
3*8
16*7
12.6
13.4
4.9
13*9
24.6
9*8
-3.1
18.6
8.2
10.8
-10*0
16*2
3*2
0*7
15.6
5*9
-1.3
10.6
7.3
16.9
7.6
7.2
2.0
12.5
5*9
1957..
1958..
1959*.
0.0
-19.0
15.4
15.2
-27.2
16.7
6*0
-13.1
17.9
-10.4
-14.9
26*4
-1.6
6.7
17.3
3*0
16,7
7.1
3.0
14.9
-5.6
7*6
13.1
-28.3
-18*0
11*3
-4.*
-9.1
9*6
-5*8
-19.9
31.7
10.2
-17.2
9*2
46.3
7.1
-19.8
16*7
-3.0
2.8
16.9
-2*5
13.1
-12*7
-15.4
16.6
16.9
-3.*
3*2
9.4
I960..
1961*.
1962*.
16.8
0.0
1.3
5.5
-4.3
15.7
-13.7
11.5
10.3
11.0
4*3
10.3
-1.3
14.2
3.8
-6.8
18.2
0.0
-2.8
7.0
a. 9
-4.2
12.4
-1*2
0.0
-1.3
7*6
-11.2
15*0
2.5
-9.8
20*2
3.7
-17.0
10.6
2*5
2*9
2.4
9*1
1.0
12.2
4.7
-2.3
6*0
5*1
-12.7
15*3
2.9
-2.8
9.0
5*4
1963..
1964..
1965..
4.9
10.4
7.3
2.5
9.2
3.1
11.2
4.6
19.8
6.5
13*7
3.1
4.9
12.4
14*4
10*9
2.3
10.1
6.4
15.6
18.1
2.4
6.6
3.0
4.9
5.5
15.8
9*5
-9.8
7.8
-2.4
26*3
18*4
15*4
22.6
20.0
6.2
8.1
10.1
8.1
9.5
9.2
5.2
9*2
12.3
7.5
13.0
15.4
6.6
10. Q)
11.7
1966..
1967*.
1968..
13.1
4.3
15*7
-2.5
17.4
5*2
2.8
-0.8
2.8
-0.8
18*8
8.5
5.3
6.7
7.9
11*8
4.3
-6.6
10.4
-4.2
7.8
30.1
7*7
18.0
15.4
2*3
10.4
6.1
2.3
8,8
5.8
4*0
6.9
8.6
14.6
10.0
9.5i
5.8
9.CI
1969..
9*6
12.4
7.2
9.7
9,,3
**.
820
<C).
7.4
P E R C E N T CHANGES IN COMPOSITE I N D E X Of 5 C O I N C I D E R S OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
( A N N . RATEi P E R C E N T *
10. a
•..
AVERAGE
. <* «
* « »»
« * 4>
1948.,
1949*.
1950..
...
-18.9
15.6
1951*.
1952*.
1953,.
29.3
10.0
12.0
19.2
7.3
10.7
1954*.
1955..
1956*.
-15.2
16.1
1957..
1958*.
1959..
. * . -1.7
-19.1 -13.6
25*4
21.2
9.5
-16.4
28.2
13.7
-15.7
25.6
17.1
-16.8
37.8
9.2
-5.4
45.3
3*3
4*6
32.1
7.3
10.7
2.6
6.4
-0*6
2*3
-7.2
3.5
5.6
-3*4
-10.0
16.5
-6,3
16.9
-6.9
18.4
0*6
15.8
-0.6
16.2
8.7
-20.8
13.9
7.1
-19.5
16.8
3.6
-18.2
20.6
-2.0
-7.1
20.9
-3.0
2.8
17.1
I960*.
1961..
1962..
23.2
-7.1
9.3
2.8
2.4
9.2
0.9
3.8
12.2
-1.4
10*1
8.2
1963*.
196*..
1965..
3.3
11.8
11.1
6.2
S.I
10.2
7.4
9.2
8.7
1966..
1967*.
1968.,
16*5
3.2
13.4
15.6
2.3
10,5
9.6
9,8
1969. *
Note:
1.6
-9.2
19*2
-0.8
-0*9
3*7
20.8
-8.0
34*4
-12*0
0*0
9*1
-1.3
10.7
1.5
12.9
6.2
4.5
15.0
-9.0
-2*5
13*2
-12.7
0.9
12.4
4.7
-3.7
13.3
4.2
-4.6
12.6
2.5
-2.3
6.0
5,1
8.2
10.3
12.5
6*2
9.5
9.2
8.1
10.2
14.4
7.3
8.2
10.5
12.0
0.6
10,2
7.6
1.1
8.4
8.1
2.3
8.9
9.0
4.6
9*4
10.8
9.0
7.5
8*3
7.0
9.4
7.2
7.1
-5*7
-3,6
17.1
-17.2
26.4
24*2
•**
-17*2
20.7
16.1
-22.3
7.4
9*8
-23*7
19*6
23.6
-16.8
5.1
6.7
24.4
14*1
10.6
7*8
19.2
7.7
7.2
19*6
8*2
2*6
-6*5
-15.5
-15.2
-12.7
0.0
17*0
-5.1
8*7
2.9
-7.0
11.4
4.6
-12*5
15*4
2.9
5.2
9.3
12.4
5*6
0*7
8.9
4*0
7.3
14.2
5.9
3.9
6*9
7.6
0*3
7.4
7.6
6*4
10*9
IL3.4
Hl6.il
DO.li
4.7
-3.3
32.2
-7.9
7.3
15.0
-7»4
24*6
11*1
3.6
-I. If
4.JI
-1.1
20.3
-7*8
6.5
16.5
-20.9
7.!!
10*0
-3*4
-10*5
16*5
5.4
-2.H
16.0
- 0*7
1.3
8.8
11.8
17.6
8*8
5*9
12. r
-18.4
6.5
"•1.2
24.8
17.1
2.9
14.7
-1.5
13.2
-11*5
-16.4
17.9
13.9
-3*1
3*6
8*6
-8.9
10.8
3.6
9*0
-0.3
10*2
-1.4
11.9
5.7
-4,0
9*1
3.5
-9.5
12.5
3.6
-1.5
8*3
5.8
7.5
13*0
15.6
7*8
19.0
17.41
5*6
9*7
10.0
8.2
10.0
12. H
6.0
6*1
10.6
6*4
13.1
15.7
6.6
9.7
12*1
8.7
14.6
10.1
6.6
18.7
10.2
14*7
2*0
11.4
8.Z
2.7
8.9
8.1
4*4
7.3
7.6
13.3
10.4
9.7
5*6
9.5
9*2
7.S
e.2
. «Mt
US
5.6
***
See "Now Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
I SEPTEMBER 1969t
106
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are f
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide"'for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol <§> (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible, These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have notbeen seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
47 ( B J .
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
OcL
Nov.
Dec.
1Q
II Q
PERCENT CHANGES IN INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
(ANN. RATE* PERCENT)
UIQ
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE
-55.1 -136.8 -122. &
16.2
35.9
17.4
-3.7
5.5
11.0
-37.3
13.3
9.1
47.0
7.6
19.9
-30.8
0*0
1.8
13l5
9.3
-26.1
8.7
-1.8
-104*9
23*2
4*3
-7.0
7.0
10.3
-3.5
11.3
38.8
-10.*
11. Z
-9.0
8.8
-42.5
9.1
-13.9
28.8
-3.0
-8.8
24*4
21.0
-1*2
-16.1
21.7
11.8
-8.6
34.4
-4.1
6.9
22.7
- 4.6
3.6
9.0
0*5
-3.6
22.0
-17.6
-23.8
14.3
-8.9
80.4
-9.0
4*6
42.6
-24.5
-3.0
12*4
-18*4
12.0
25.8
-29.4
7.4
6.6
-26.0
5.4
7.3
7*0
-2.4
-10.7
2.2
-7.3
33.1
-6.4
5.5
14.9
-24.6
0.3
11.2
-5.*
5*6
8*8
-3.6
-4.2
10.0
-50.8
0.0
4.9
58.1
8.4
12.2
18.0
4.2
12.1
4.8
15.2
-1.2
-1.2
20*6
2*4
8*3
-6*1
20.4
-5.2
5.7
14.0
2.1
1.4
9.0
8*4
13.3
4.4
4.0
3.6
12.0
2.3
3.6
23*3
25.8
3*5
37.6
5.5
1.2
22.1
-26.2
1.2
22.9
-37*9
-16.4
5.0
-1.2
-22.6
7.4
-13.8
-23.0
37.2
7.0
-25.9
7.2
70.8
0.8
-28.1
17.3
-1.2
17.1
19.2
-4.7
16.7
-21.8
-23.8
17.3
21.3
-7.2
5. 8
9*0
-8.6
31.2
5.2
2.2
22*4
2*0
-3.2
19.9
-1.0
-5.5
10.8
9.1
-4.4
15.1
0*0
-10.0
-13. »
7.1
^8.9
19.3
-6.0
-18.0
15.8
7.1
-20.5
9.4
-4.0
3.7
1*6
5.9
-3.2
24.5
2.1
-6.6
4.0
5.4
-15.8
14.8
-1.0
-5.5
11*2
3.1
13.0
5.6
11.2
7.9
16*7
0*8
16*7
8.3
6.8
11.5
2.8
11.0
0.0
10.9
10.1
-1.9
6.2
5.0
2.9
-3.6
-6.6
3.8
-18.8
11.6
0.0
34.7
9.8
8.5
21.2
18*8
8.4
7.2
8.7
12*0
9.3
6*2
0.3
4.5
2.8
4.t
12.4
13.4
6*2
8.3
7.8
13.6
-12.1
11.0
-0.7
0.8
0.7
11.6
-8.4
8.5
0.7
5.4
5.4
4.6
14.5
2.3
-11*4
9.8
3.1
-2.3
19.8
3.0
17.3
12.8
-7.3
2.2
7.0
-2.3
6.8
4.1
2.8
-1.7
3.5
13*4
8.7
6*8
1.7
4.0
7.1
9.1
2.2
5.6
9.0
5.5
-2.0
6.4
5.6
• ..
...
••*
1945..
1946..
1947..
-25l3
13.1
7.4
-58.3
5.5
-4«*
122.5
9.2
-22.1
-20.6
-7*3
-30.0
-39.8
3.7
-26.2
86.6
-1.8
1948..
19^9..
1950..
7.1
-17.6
20.2
1*8
-9.0
3.6
-12.4
-21.7
41.4
0*0
-9.2
38.3
25*0
-13.0
28*7
10.4
-3.7
36.2
1*7
-1.9
38.4
1951..
1952..
1953..
5.9
11.8
4.0
3.0
7.3
5.3
7.3
2.9
11.8
2.9
-10.1
6.5
-4.3
-11.6
6.5
-5.9
-10.3
-6.5
1954..
1955..
1956..
-8.4
27.0
-3.6
-1.4
13.2
-7.2
-8.5
20.9
-4.8
0.0
19.2
17.0
11.4
13.9
-7.2
1957..
1958..
1959..
-3.5
-30.4
9.6
7.1
-32.4
21.4
-1.2
-21.4
21.0
-10*6
-9.5
26.3
I960..
1961..
1962..
24.1
0.0
-8.3
-7.6
0.0
14.6
-5.4
4.7
11.4
1963..
1964..
1965..
4.1
10.4
7.8
8.0
5.6
7.0
1966..
1967..
1968..
13.7
-9.0
1969..
2.9
U7 I C J .
PERCENT CHANGES IN INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
(ANN. RATEt PERCENT)
•* .
13.0
5.5
AVERAGE
1945..
1946..
1947..
...
-37.0
6.2
...
10.6
9.4
-6.4
12.2
2.5
-18..6
18,9
1.8
-25.5
7.6
-1.8
-36.0
20.2
-0.6
-69.2
47.6
0.0
-96*5
23.6
4.3
-91.8
22*6
8.6
-38.4
12*9
13.5
-7.6
7.0
10.3
-3*6
6.9
9.6
...
-4.7
6*0
-26.7
15.6
-0.2
-85.8
31.3
4.3
-16.5
6.9
11.1
...
12.8
5.3
1948..
1949..
1950..
3.6
-11.7
16.2
-1.2
-15.9
22.0
-3.5
-13.2
28.3
4..1
-14,, 4
37 ,,2
11.9
-8.6
35.4
12.5
-6.2
35.4
2.9
1.9
39.0
-4.0
6.9
22.9
-l.T
-6.9
12.9
-5*2
-1.2
-1.0
-4.6
3.1
9.1
-13*3
24.9
8.0
-0.4
-13.6
22*2
9.5
-9.7
36.0
-0.9
0.6
24*9
-7.7
8.9
5.4
0.1
-3.4
ZZ.l
1951..
1952..
1953..
10.0
8.9
5,3
5.4
7.4
7.0
4*4
0*0
7.9
2..0
-6»3
8»3
-2.4
-10.6
2.2
-9.2
-15.1
4. a
-10.7
14.8
-0.4
-7.3
33.2
-6.5
-2*5
46.5
-17.0
4.5
27.5
-23.6
5.5
15.1
-24.1
10.5
12.2
-20.9
6.6
5.4
6.7
-3.2
-10.7
5.1
-6.8
31*5
-8.0
6.8
18.3
-22.9
0*8
11.1
-4*8
1954..
1955..
1956..
-11.8
20.6
-2.8
-6.1
20.7
-5.2
-3*3
18.0
1.6
1«0
18,3
l.,6
5.7
14.1
2.0
4.3
0.5
1.4
4.2
9.4
-20.4
0.4
7.6
27.3
7.2
13*5
4.4
4.0
21.3
-0.8
1*2
-T.I
19*8
-2.1
3.7
14.5
-5.6
2.0
8.9
11.8
14.7
3*8
4.1
3.3
11.7
2.0
1957..
1958..
1959..
4.0
-28.8
12.8
0.8
-27.4
17.5
-1.6
-20.7
23.3
-2«7
-2«7
24.8
-1.2
17.2
19.5
2.8
28.2
1.5
2.0
28.2
-19.4
-4.7
16.9
-21.5
-12.5
11.9
-17.5
-20.3
16.7
-2.7
-23.4
17.5
21.2
-25.8
18*2
34*6
1.1
-25.6
17.9
-0.4
14.2
15*3
-5*1
19.0
-19*5
-23.2
17.5
17.7
-6.9
6*3
7*8
I960..
1961..
1962..
29.4
-6.8
5.2
3.6
1.6
5.9
-7.2
12.0
10.4
-4*0
19 „ 7
6*. 2
-3.2
25.0
2.0
-2.2
18*0
3.4
-4.4
15.4
2.7
-6.6
4.0
5.4
-7.7
6.9
0.3
-12.2
7.1
2.7
-15.6
15.0
-1.0
-12.7
5.6
2.4
8.6
2.3
7.2
-3.1
20.9
3.9
-6.2
8.7
2.8
-13.5
9.2
1*4
-3.6
10.3
3.8
1963..
196*..
1965..
2.7
8.2
12.1
8.4
7.2
8.7
9.7
9.4
6.4
12 . 6
10.2
6., 3
12.2
9.3
6.2
9.4
7.3
9*4
3.2
6.7
8.8
0.3
4.5
2.8
1.6
-5.4
3*3
2.2
3.9
5.0
4*1
12.2
13.6
6.4
21.6
14.3
6.9
8.3
9.1
11.4
8.9
7.3
1.7
1.9
5.0
4.2
12.6
11.0
6.1
7.9
8.1
1966..
1967..
1968..
15.6
-6.0
5.5
12.9
-7.3
2.2
8.5
-4.0
3.2
7*9
-2*8
5.4
7.0
-2.3
6.9
8.6
-0.8
8.6
6.2
7.0
1.0
4.1
2.8
-1.7
5*6
2*0
0.0
3.3
3.8
7.0
3.6
13.5
8.7
-2.8
10.2
7.5
12.3
-5.8
3.6
7.8
-2.0
7.0
5.3
3*9
-0.2
1.4
9.2
7.7
6.7
1*3
4.5
1969..
6.2
6*4
6.2
5.6
5*6
6.8
4*2
6.3
6.0
*"«.
* **
...
Note:
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
<SEPTEMBER 1969/
107
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new stiries which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. Seothe"lndex-Series Finding Guide1* for the latest issue In which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ® (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
46 ( B J .
1947..
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
PERCENT CHANGES IN MAN-HOURS IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
OVER 1-MONTH SPANS (ANN. R A T E t PERCENT )
-1.7
-0.8
-9.8
IIIQ
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE
...
7.2
3.7
-6.6
3,4
10.4
5*4
2.5
7.4
• •*
0..4
2.4
1948..
1949..
1959*.
-0.5
-13.7
3.4
-6.1
-3.1
-5.8
5.9
-10.4
23,5
-13.9
-6.6
7.1
11.0
-4.6
17.2
8*6
-9.0
14.6
3.2
-4*9
12.2
-1.2
1.2
24*6
-0.5
1.3
-1.3
-4.8
-22.2
6*8
O.B
8.5
8.3
-3.7
6.1
-2*4
-0.2
-9.1
7.0
1,9
-6«,7
13..0
0*5
-0.8
11*8
-2.6
-2.5
4.2
-0.1
-4.8
9.0
1951..
1952..
1953..
17.8
6.4
-1.8
2.3
4.6
4.7
4.3
-4.7
4.2
6.6
-5.5
-1.3
-1.9
6.5
-4.6
0.4
-10.6
0.1
0.6
-5.9
-1.6
-4.3
18.2
-6.8
-3.6
21.6
-11.4
-2.0
2.5
9.6
7.6
2.8
-12*5
5*0
12*0
-5.9
8.3
2.1
2.4
l,,7
-3,>2
-U9
-a. 4
11.3
-^6.6
3.5
5.8
-2.9
2*8
4.0
-2.3
1954..
1955..
1956..
-14.3
1.7
-0.5
5.4
6.7
3.1
-5.2
13.7
-5.5
-4.0
1.6
9.2
-7.2
13.9
-3.6
0*1
1.6
3*4
-2.9
3.4
-13.8
-1*1
2.6
14.3
-0*4
7.6
0.6
6.1
2.4
6.5
13.8
5.8
2*3
3.1
5*2
3.5
-4.7
7.4
-1.0
-3,, 7
5,,7
3,0
-1.2
4.5
0.4
7.7
4*5
4.1
-0.5
1957..
1958..
1959..
-10.0
-6.6
10. 0
8.5
-20.0
2.0
-2*0
-4.8
10.1
-6.5
-8*5
11.0
1963..
3.2
1.7
-3.8
5.8
0.7
6.1
1.4
2.8
2.9
-3.1
7.0
-10.3
12.0
-3.1
0.0
-1.3
12.1
5*2
3.2
18*4
-1.2
-10.5
7.4
-2 .,6
-2-1
6*6
-1.7
7.3
-S.S
-6*0
S.I
7.4
-1.6
5.6
1.4
-0.2
5.0
0.2
-1.1
3.1
1*3
-6.4
-4.8
5.3
•^1.9
-6.7
9.4
4.7
-17.4
-1.6
-1*3
0.4
3.6
4*3
0,4
3*9
2*7
-2.6
1.1
g.3
-8.7
5*6
-1.1
-2.6
3.6
2*1
1.1
8.6
7.3
2.5
4.0
4*3
2*6
3.5
1*6
2.5
1962..
-11.0
16.4
7.6
5.4
-3.1
7.6
1.4
1963..
1964..
1965..
1.8
-12.8
-0.8
1.9
17.5
2.2
4.6
7.3
1.7
2.2
2.4
3*5
2.8
1.2
3.2
0.7
3*0
4*4
0*2
4*0
3.1
-0.7
12.2
1.8
10*4
2.0
3.1
3.8
4*3
2*3
2*3
2.1
2.1
3.7
1965..
1967..
1968..
2.8
5.5
-10.8
-6.7
15.4
0*8
2.2
-3.4
0.1
3.5
6.0
3.4
4*8
0*6
4.3
5*6
2*9
1.9
1.6
-2.0
1.2
11*5
-0.5
-2.0
3.2
-0*1
2.3
1*2
3*6
E. 7
2. 9
1969..
7.8
-0.1
6.4
2*4
0.4
5*6
6.6
2*9
».*
0.1
18 < 0 .
PERCENT CHANGES IN MAN-HOURS IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
OVER 3-MONTH SPANS (ANN. RATE, PERCENT t
3*5
-6*7
14*7
0.6
-3.9
13.1
-3.2
-0.3
5*6
4.3
-10.8
6*3
1*8
3.3
1*5
-2*6
-1*5
-2.3
8*7
-4.1
3*5
6.4
-6.2
4*1
6.2
3.5
-1.4
-3.6
6*2
1.3
-4*0
7*3
-0,6
-0.2
3.7
2*9
6*8
4*4
1.9
-0.1
-10*3
6.8
-1.9
-1*5
6.0
-2.5
5.8
-4.7
-6*0
7*2
5*5
i
i
5.2
3*2
1.0
-7.2
16.2
1.8
-6.7
13.1
7.6
-6,2
14.9
3.6
-4.2
17.4
0.5
-0.8
11.9
-2.2
-6*6
10.0
-1.5
-4.2
4.6
-2*6
-2.6
4.2
-5.5
6.0
7*9
14.2
-3.0
9.0
-4.8
5.8
-3.0
1*6
4*2
7*1
6.6
5.2
3.1
7.7
.• *
0.2
-6.8
1.2
1951..
1952..
1953*.
5.9
5.3
5.0
2.0
2.4
-1.9
2.5
-1.3
-0.6
-3.2
-2.0
-3.4
-2.0
0.5
-2.8
11.4
-6.6
1954..
1955..
1956..
3.8
2.6
7.4
-0.9
7*4
2*3
9.8
0.0
5.7
3.0
6*3
-4*7
2.5
1.2
4.5
0.3
1957..
1958..
1959. .
0.7
-9.6
5.1
-1.1
-10.4
7.4
0.0
-11.0
7.8
-2.7
-4.2
9.2
-2.8
-2.1
6.7
-0*2
1*7
2.0
-0.1
3.8
-3.6
-1.7
7.3
-5.5
-5*8
-4*9
-7.6
8.1
0.2
-6*0
5*1
7*4
-4.4
8*5
9.0
196H..
1961..
1962..
7,8
-2.0
1.2
0.4
3*6
4.3
-0*3
9.9
1.7
4.8
3.9
2.8
6*1
1.0
4.6
1.0
1.1
2*3
2.4
0.0
4.5
1*1
5.6
-1.0
-4.6
-1.1
1.7
3.1
0*4
5*1
-0.5
3.9
2,9
-2.2
2*7
l.l
-6.0
3.0
0.6
1963..
1964..
1965..
0*8
2.1
5.9
2*0
3.0
3.7
3.8
7.9
3.9
3.9
2.9
3.8
4*4
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.8
3.6
1.8
3.0
3.2
2*1
2.2
3.7
3.0
2.1
4.6
2*6
5.2
5.0
1.6
8.6
7.4
-3.9
7.3
6.2
2.2
4.3
4.5
3.5
2*7
3*2
2.3
2*4
3.8
0.1
7*0
6.2
1966..
1967..
1968..
6.8
-0.2
0.8
6.4
-0.2
2.2
5.3
-3.1
5.9
3.0
0.3
2.8
3.9
1.1
3.6
4*0
2.4
5.1
4.4
3.2
4*0
1.2
2.7
3.0
2*5
1*5
1.9
2.2
3.8
0*6
2.6
2.4
1.3
3.3
-0.4
3.5
6.2
-1.2
3.0
3.6
1.3
3.8
2^7
2*6
3.0
2*7
1.9
1.9
1969*.
3.7
6.6
3.9
6.0
2.9
3.0
2.8
4.7
4.0
i
6.2
11
-1*6
-7*5
5.5
6.5
1948..
1949*.
195'J..
Note:
* **
4.9
2*4
-4.7
-6*6
8.3
• *»
3*0
0.1
-9.0
7.0
-o.a
1.3
0*2
1.4
-1.1
a. 5
AVERAGE
0.4
-4.1
**.
-6.6
t
1945. .
1946. .
1947.*
11.9
1*6
-2*9
0*0
4*0
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
(SEPTEMBER 1969)
108
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
cia! source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
52 ( B ) .
May
Apr.
July
June
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec,
II Q
PERCENT CHANGES IN PERSONAL INCOME OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
(ANN . RATEt PERCENT )
1945..
1946..
1947..
2.0
-4.9
-1.3
0.0
21.2
-1.3
-u.o
15l7
4.4
13.2
-17.9
7.0
9.6
2.6
14.5
15.0
18.8
-0.7
28.9
1.3
-29.5
8.5
4.4
1948*.
1949*.
1950..
19.3
-19*2
47.2
-3*0
-5*2
16.1
20.8
6.4
27.8
5.9
-5.8
-25.1
7.6
-2.9
2.8
24.2
-11.5
6.0
4*6
-9.4
23.3
13.6
8.9
23.4
1951..
1952..
1953..
5.9
-9.1
3.0
13.2
17.4
8*0
12.6
3.1
11.8
13,9
-2.Q
11.2
6.6
13.6
5.4
8.5
7.2
5.0
-1.9
-4.4
-2.0
1954..
1955*.
1956..
-1.7
5.3
1.9
4.2
7.2
7.4
-4.2
9.6
4.4
-4.6
12*4
1IL.4
3.7
10.2
1.8
0.8
4.3
7.7
1957..
1958..
1959..
-0.4
0.4
2.9
11.2
-1.0
7.4
4.8
6.1
9.0
1.4
-2.4
10.2
5.5
4.1
7.0
I960*.
1961..
1962..
3.4
10.4
-1.1
0.4
2.0
8.4
1.2
11.9
9.7
10.0
0.2
7.1
1963..
1964..
1965..
13.2
8.3
7.4
-5.0
5.5
1.4
5.0
5.4
8.0
£.0
1966..
1967..
1968..
4.3
9.8
6.1
11.6
4.1
15.1
1969..
4.6
8.6
IN Q
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE
25.0
29.3
-46.4
19.4
3*2
4.9
-9.2
14*3
14.6
* **
10.7
0.6
3.5
12.6
1.2
-27.6
5.1
33.4
11.7
15*6
-9.0
...
11.0
6.6
1.1
18.7
11.4
5.0
-21*2
16.0
-7.2
14*6
10.7
-15.1
7*0
27*2
12*4
-6.0
30.4
12.6
-6.7
-5.4
6.4
6*1
19*4
-5.8
0.1
18*0
6.4
-1.6
15.6
13.7
33.4
-2.5
2.3
12.1
-0.4
13.9
4.7
7.4
4.6
-3.0
-7.4
4.6
8*5
-4.2
3.8
7.6
6.0
3.9
13*7
-1.6
3.4
-1.4
8.2
6.7
2.1
2.0
18.2
-3.2
1*6
16.7
8.4
8.3
5.3
12*5
9.5
0*0
7.9
6.7
-0.6
7.4
4.6
0.0
9.0
7.0
5*4
9.4
7.3
7.2
7.6
6.4
3.0
8.3
6*3
8.9
6.1
5.0
5.2
21.5
1.2
5.4
-0.6
-8.0
-3.4
6.2
1*6
-0*4
2.3
3.5
1.3
14.4
12.5
-3.7
5.9
19.4
5.2
1*8
6*4
5.3
2.6
7.4
2.4
9.0
-1.7
-0.9
7.5
11.8
3.0
5.2
6.0
4.4
7.6
2*8
0.6
10.4
2.8
2.6
10.9
4.3
1.4
-2*3
3*2
1*4
2.9
6.5
3.0
12.8
2.4
-3.0
12.1
6*7
-7.4
7.0
5.9
1.7
8*1
5.7
5.0
6.1
4.2
1.8
3.8
4.7
-2.5
10.6
5.0
1.5
7*2
4.9
6.8
7*3
7.1
11.9
7.8
4.9
10.0
3.6
8.3
7*8
5.6
10.1
6.5
5.6
6.5
33.8
8.6
1.7
-7*9
3*8
9.0
10.4
10*6
13.7
10.8
4.4
6.4
5.6
5.7
6.7
9*6
4.9
8*3
16.0
7.7
8.1
4.4
5*7
7.4
8.9
8.6
5.9
13.2
6.0
2.8
4.1
3.7
3.7
10.7
9.5
10.1
8.3
8*9
9.1
8.9
4.9
8.6
2*3
8.8
2*0
12.4
9.0
10.3
13.8
7.6
8.2
6*6
11.5
6*8
5.3
8*3
8*4
7.4
8.8
7.2
9.5
8.5
7.6
7.2
9.3
11.3
8.0
7.2
9.8
8.5
8.3
8*2
8.3
...
.•*
.. •
52 ( C J .
a. 2
PERCENT
-52.7
-22.2
94.6
CHANGES IN PERSONAL INCOME OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
(ANN. RAT Ei PERCENT*
AVERAGE
1945*.
1946..
1947*.
...
0.5
5.8
...
10.7
0.6
-3.9
9.9
-6.8
-1.4
14*8
-5*5
3.4
12.8
1.1
7.0
18.1
7.6
-5*3
17.7
8.2
-27.2
5.0
33*6
-19.2
5.0
16.4
-3.3
3*3
16*5
11.8
15.8
-9.2
8.6
7.4
13*0
1948*.
1949..
1953.*
10.4
-13.0
23.7
12.4
-6.0
31.0
7.9
-1.5
6*1
11.5
-0*8
1.6
12.6
-6.7
-5.5
12.2
-7.9
10.7
14*2
-4.0
17.8
6.4
6.0
19.6
6.6
2.0
17.2
-0.4
3.9
12*8
-5.8
0.0
18.2
1951..
1952..
1953*.
15.6
4.3
10.7
3.8
13*4
6*0
11.2
4.7
9.8
6.0
4.4
5.4
6.8
12.0
4.7
13.8
10.0
16*9
7.0
4.6
1954..
1955..
1956*.
-0.6
5.3
5.8
7.4
4.6
9.8
7.8
ID. 8
5.9
9.0
7.0
11.0
2.1
7.0
7.2
12.6
1957*.
1958..
1959..
5.8
-1.5
5.4
5.2
1.8
6.4
5.8
1963..
1961..
1962*.
7.7
1.7
4.8
1.6
8.2
5.6
3.8
4.8
8.4
5.2
6.6
6.6
5.0
6.2
4.2
2.6
9*8
3.3
1.6
6.4
3.4
1.9
3*8
4*7
1963..
1964..
1965..
4.7
8.2
7.5
4.4
6.4
5.7
0.7
6.4
5.5
4.8
6.9
9.0
5.8
6.7
9.6
6.3
6.8
10.0
5.7
7.8
8.1
1966*.
1967*.
1968..
9.0
8.2
11.8
8.2
6.6
11.6
8.8
4.2
10.9
6.2
4.1
9.4
6.8
5.3
8.3
7.3
7.2
10.0
9.3
9.0
9.4
1969..
7.0
8.2
9.4
8.9
8.4
8.6
9.0
Note:
IQ
-17.2
9.2
19*4
5.7
8.8
6.8
...
10.1
6.8
12.1
-5.1
2.3
9.1
1.3
18.2
-6.6
9.0
15.3
6.2
-0.4
14.0
13.2
4.7
7*1
8*5
5.4
4.3
7.2
14.2
0.0
4.9
3.6
-2.0
8.4
7.0
2.4
7.5
6*1
10.3
5.0
5.2
7.5
8.9
7.6
7.3
5.1
3.0
8.1
6.3
11*8
5.6
0.4
6.9
5.3
5.3
6.8
3.2
6*9
-1.1
-0.8
7.7
9.8
3.3
5.1
5.6
-2.5
10.8
5.0
0.0
6.0
8.7
4.4
4.9
6.3
4.3
7.5
4.7
1.8
4.9
4.0
-0.7
8.7
6.3
2.4
6*5
5*3
6*1
5*7
12.1
7.8
8.2
4.4
7.6
10.1
8.5
3.3
7.0
6.2
5.6
6.8
9.5
5.8
7.4
11.7
7.2
6.0
8.3
5.5
7*3
9.0
6.4
6.6
8*6
7.2
9.5
8.5
7.4
10*8
7.1
8.7
6.3
11.4
6.8
5.5
9.2
8.9
7.3
9.0
7.0
9.0
6.1
7.8
7.0
9.5
8.2
8.6
»»•
...
...
«*.
7.0
-0.1
3.0
15.2
1.1
-13.7
23.2
14.8
10.2
-6.8
20.3
7.7
3.4
0.0
2.8
6.9
6.4
2.1
-0.8
-0.9
-0.7
5.8
11.9
2.0
4.5
4.0
0.5
9.4
5.2
5.0
8.3
16.2
6.7
6.1
10.8
8.4
7.5
8*9
9.0
5.4
8.8
-1.0
8.9
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/ page iii.
(SEPTEMBER
1969)
109
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically fora long period of time. Seethelndex-Series Finding Guide" for tho latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ® (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency Quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from d.ita which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
51 ( B J .
1945. .
1946. .
1947..
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Quartsrly
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
PERCENT CHANGES IN SALES OF R E T A I L STORES OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
( A N N . R A T E . PERCENT I
III Q
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE
* ••
* *•
•* .
-10.1
21.8
13.8
10.1
3.6
-4.1
38.0
16.9
20.6
5.5
...
15,2
12.5
14.3
-1.9
16.4
26.4
17.2
10.0
3.8
20.5
10.6
4*3
-32.5
-7.1
20.5
29.4
-0.6
43.2
9.0
-24.0
92.9
7.9
12.4
4.4
-10.7
16.9
-58.9
1*1
-10.9
-31.8
-8.6
6.6
-28.1
26.4
-18.1
86*4
6.6
-7.2
22.1
5.8
1.0
22.7
2.1
KB
12.8
6.3
-7.5
9.5
5.2
-3.0
16.8
85.8
9.8
7.2
-14.6
22.4
-2.3
-60.8
-34.7
-26*4
29.6
9.8
45.5
-4.4
15.5
-13*2
-32.3
27.0
-26.6
-7.fi
19.8
22.3
55.1
4.6
0.5
-13.3
-17.5
-16.1
32.4
-11.8
3.5
-0.8
4.2
-7,0
30,2
-7.6
2.1
-13.0
-3.9
2.2
24.7
-8*2
0*2
10. 3
-3*9
1954..
1955..
1956*.
-0.6
7*7
-2.8
30.0
10.7
-9*7
-3.0
8.8
22.9
-2.5
20.0
-11*3
-2.9
0.4
19*7
27.1
-10.6
1.9
-23.6
22.1
-4.1
0.5
1.1
6*2
6.6
20.2
6.1
0.7
2.9
2.0
27.7
-4.8
13.1
22.1
-9.2
6*5
8.8
9.1
3.5
7,2
3,3
3,4
-S.5
14.5
2.7
16.8
-3.7
7.2
6.8
5.8
4*2
1957..
1958..
1959..
10.1
0.8
-1.4
22.4
-20.5
8.8
-13.1
-4.1
10.1
2.9
15.8
0.7
3.0
-1.3
9.4
20.8
-3.0
10.9
-1.4
19.7
-0.4
7.7
7.7
-7.7
-15.7
-6.0
8.8
27.8
-31.7
39.2
-5.5
6.5
-7.9
5.8
8*9
3.8
7.0
0.6
6*6
-2.8
-**6
20.3
-9.5
2.8
5*7
0.1
196^..
1961..
1962..
32.4
-1.4
10.8
4.4
-1.6
2.9
-1.3
6.0
18.1
31.4
-7.9
6.2
-17.9
10.7
B.5
-1.7
4.4
-13.9
-12.0
9.5
15.8
4.1
5.8
3.5
-1.1
6.1
13.8
10.6
7.2
1.3
-17.2
15.1
9.7
-8.8
4.2
6.5
11.8
1*0
10.6
3.9
2.*
0,3
-3.0
7*1
11.0
-5*1
6.8
6.5
1*9
4.8
7.1
1963..
1964..
1965..
6.8
4.1
8.0
-5*5
22.0
7.6
8.8
-5.8
-11.9
-4.8
7.7
10.1
-6.7
14. 5
18.6
20.2
5.3
-7.2
6.8
3.6
19.6
-3.1
20.0
3.8
-5.4
5.8
3.2
16.7
-48.6
31.0
-2.8
14.6
14.5
13.1
59*5
4*3
3.4
6*8
1.2
2,9
9,2
7.2
-0.6
9.8
B.9
9*0
6.5
16.6
3*7
8*6
8.$
1966..
1967*.
1968..
7.9
21.0
22.6
3.6
-16.3
18.0
21.0
13.2
23.9
-16.3
8.5
-8.8
-20.6
1*2
15.8
27.7
24.1
7.0
5.0
-7.4
15.0
13.6
-1.2
3.6
2*4
27.5
5.9
-5.2
-34.3
0.5
12.2
4*6
-8*5
6.7
-19.1
10.8
6.0
21.5
-3.1
11.3
4.7
T.O
6*3
8.2
-4.4
-5.1
-7.7
2*6
4.6
6.7
1969*.
27,1
12.4
-15.2
21.8
-2.3
-0.6
-8.8
7.0
6*1
6,3
*-*«
...
33*7
1948..
1949..
1950..
4.6
-47.9
31.2
1951..
1952..
1953..
5U ( C l .
1946..
1947..
-8.5
PERCENT CHANGES IN SALES OF R E T A I L STORES OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
( A N N . RATE* PERCENT)
•**
*. *
AVERAGE
•**
*. »
•. .
...
15.2
8.5
15.4
9.2
3.2
12.4
17.0
25.7
14.5
10.3
•**
11.0
10*9
16.8
1948..
1949..
1950..
2*8
-2.2
13.1
6.6
-7.5
22.5
12.0
12.4
13.3
1.5
4.5
11.3
5.5
0.9
23.0
1.7
-10.5
54.1
15.6
-4.2
48.1
2.0
1*6
11.3
-0.6
6.1
^28.3
-6*1
4.2
-38.4
6.2
-7.5
8.4
-10.4
6.4
49.4
7.1
0.9
16*3
2. 9
-1.7
29.5
S.7
1*2
10*4
-3.4
1.0
6.5
3*1
0.4
15.6
1951..
1952..
1953..
54.6
5.4
12.5
1.9
-1.0
4.3
-33.1
5.5
-3.7
-25.6
13*1
-4.4
-7.0
30.9
-7.6
-2*6
9.2
-3.6
3.0
-14.5
-4.2
2.0
-13.1
-3.9
14.0
15.8
-0.8
5.0
20.6
-4.6
2.2
24*9
-8.2
-2.0
8*7
-9.9
7*8
3*3
4*4
-11.7
17,7
-S.2
6*3
-3*9
-3.0
1.7
16.1
-7.6
1*0
8.8
-2.8
1954..
1955*.
1956..
5.8
13.6
-7.2
8.3
9.1
3.4
8*1
13.3
0.6
-2.8
9.8
10.4
7.2
3.2
3.4
0.0
3.9
5.9
1.1
4.2
1.4
-5.6
14.6
2.8
2.6
8.1
4.8
11.7
6.1
7.1
17.0
-3.7
7.2
19.4
-5.6
10.0
7.6
12.0
-1.1
1.5
$.6
6.6
-0.6
9.0
3*0
16.0
-1.1
8.1
6.1
6.4
4.Z
1957*.
19S8..
:9§9*.
13.1
-7.8
15.6
6.4
-7.9
5.8
4.0
-3.0
6.6
-2*4
3.5
6*8
8.9
3*8
7.0
7.4
5.1
6.7
10.5
8.1
6.1
0.5
6.5
-2.8
-C.4
-2.0
0.2
-6.3
4.6
-12.8
-4.6
20.6
-9.5
-2.9
22.1
-1.9
7.8
-6.2
9*3
4.6
4,1
6.8
3.S
4.2
1.2
-4.6
15.8
-8*1
2*8
4.5
2*3
I960.*
1961*.
1962..
10.4
-3.9
6.0
11*8
1.0
10.7
11.6
-1.2
9.1
3.9
2.9
11.0
2.4
0,2
8.3
3.4
6.6
1.8
7*2
11*2
6.4*
6*2
9*6
8.3
8.9
6.5
10.2
8.4
11.3
-1.4
8.6
-0.9
4.5
4,9
-0.6
6.7
6.4
-S.6
9*6
7.7
1*0
4.9
6.9
1963..
1964..
1965..
3.3
13.2
25.3
3.4
6.7
1.2
-0.5
8.0
1.9
-1.0
5.5
5*6
2.8
9.2
7.2
6.6
7.8
10.4
8.0
9.7
5.4
-0.6
9*8
8*9
2.7
-7.9
12*7
2.6
-9.7
16.4
9.0
7.8
16*8
4.8
27.8
9.0
2*1
9.3
9.5
2.9
7.5
7.7
3.4
3.9
9*0
S.5
8.6
14.1
3.5
7.3
10*1
1966*.
1967*.
1968.*
5.3
-1.4
16.0
10*9
5.9
21.9
2.6
1.7
11.1
-5.4
7.7
10*3
-3.3
11.3
4.6
3.9
5.9
12.7
15.6
5.1
8.6
7.0
6*2
8.2
3.6
-3*0
0.3
-0.8
1.5
0.6
-4*4
-5*3
-7.7
4.2
14.0
4.1
6.3
2.1
16.3
-1.6
8,3
9.2
B.7
2*8
8.7
-0.3
3.4
-1.0
3.3
4*1
7.6
6.7
8.0
6.2
1.3
6.3
-3.9
-0.8
7.0
1.2
*. »
••»
1969..
Note:
..*
See "New Features and Changes for This Is sue/' page iii.
(SEPTEMBER 1969i
110
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ® (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
Apr,
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1 Q
II Q
5 5 ( B ) . PERCENT CHANGES I N INDEX O F WHOLESALE P R I C E S t I N D U S T R I A L COMMODITIES*
OVER 1-MONTH SPANS ( A N N . R A T E i P E R C E N T / ®
IIIQ
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE
35.8
2.2
6.4
6.6
2.2
10.4
16.4
0.0
12.5
4.9
2.2
8.3
-1.6
0.0
18.4
1.6
2.2
44.3
8.0
2.2
23.3
16.1
0.0
5.8
12. T
2.2
39.8
12.6
2.2
51.4
13.9
4.2
38.8
16.9
6^3
19.6
0.7
13.1
1.6
1.5
24*5
12.3
2.9
43.3
14*5
* **
21.8
12*0
19.7
-5*8
3.0
-6.0
-10.2
3.0
0*0
-7*3
0.0
6.0
-14.8
1.6
0.0
-14.9
9*0
6.0
-7.6
7.4
10.3
-4.6
19.3
14.6
3.0
23*4
4.3
0.0
27.2
0.0
21.0
0.0
15.1
1.6
27.2
-7.8
2.0
-12.4
6.0
-0.5
23*3
0.5
21*1
4.8
-5.0
13*1
-1.3
-3.8
-5.2
-5.3
-9.2
0.0
-2.6
-1.3
-2*6
4.1
4.0
9.4
9.0
-1.3
-1.3
-1.3
1*3
1.3
1.3
11*0
-E.6
1.8
-3.4
-4.5
1.8
-4.8
2.2
2.7
-0.9
-0.9
-0.4
0.5
-1.4
1.5
-1.3
-1.3
5.0
2.6
1.3
5.0
0.0
-2.6
1.2
-2.6
1.3
-1.2
1.3
9.2
-1.2
0.0
10.4
10.0
0.0
10.3
6.2
1.3
5.2
4.9
4.0
3.8
6.1
0*0
3.8
4.9
-1.3
2.7
4.2
0.0
0.0
1.7
0.4
10.0
5.0
1.8
4.3
5.3
0.2
4.2
4.0
2.4
-3.6
2.4
-1.2
0.0
3.6
0.0
-2.4
1.2
-1.2
-1.2
1.2
0.0
0.0
-2.4
4.8
2.4
2.4
2.4
4.8
0.0
0.0
1.2
0.0
-1.2
1*2
0.0
0.0
3.6
1.2
2*4
4.8
1*2
2*0
-1.2
2*8
-0.4
-1.2
0.0
2*4
2.8
0.8
0.4
3.2
o.a
1.
0.
1.
1.2
2.4
1.2
-1.2
0.0
-2.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0*0
-1.2
1.2
-4.7
-3.6
0.0
0.0
-2.4
-2.4
0.0
0.0
1.2
0.0
0.0
-2.4
-2.4
1.2
2.4
1.2
-2.4
-1*2
-1.2
2.4
0*0
0*0
2.4
0.0
0*0
0.8
-0.4
-1.6
-2.4
-0.4
-0.8
0.4
0.4
0*0
0*8
-0.4
-0.
-0*2
1963*.
1964..
1965..
0.0
1.2
1.2
-1.2
-1.2
0.0
0.0
-1.2
1.2
-2.4
0.0
1.2
1*2
0.0
2.4
2.4
-2.4
2.4
1.2
2.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
2.4
-1.2
0.0
0.0
2.4
4.8
1.2
0*0
1.2
4.7
3.6
2.4
0*0
-0*4
-0.4
0.8
0.4
-0.8
2.0
0*0
0.8
0.8
2*0
2*8
2*0
0.5
0.6
1.4
1966..
1967..
1968..
3.5
3.4
4.4
3.5
2*3
5.5
2.3
0.0
3.4
3.5
0.0
2.2
4.6
0.0
-2.2
2.3
0.0
2.2
3.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.4
1.1
0.0
2.3
3.4
1.2
3.4
5.5
2.3
3.4
2.2
0*0
3*4
3*2
3*1
1*9
4*4
3*5
0.0
0.7
1*2
1.9
1.5
1*2
3*4
3*6
2*2
1*8
2*6
1969..
7.7
5.4
6.5
1.1
1.1
0.0
2.2
4.3
3.2
** *
...
•« .
6*5
0*7
3.2
*..
***
1945..
1946..
1947..
1948*.
1949.*
1950..
1951*.
26.6
6.5
0.0
1953..
1.3
0.0
4*1
1954..
1955..
1956..
0.0
4.0
6.4
-2.6
5.3
1.3
1957..
1958..
1959..
4.9
0.0
2.4
196^..
1961..
1962..
2\2
55 < C K
P E R C E N T CHANGES IN INDEX OF WHOLESALE P R I C E S . INDUSTRIAL
OVER 3-MONTH SPANS ( A N N . R A T E . P E R C E N T ) ©
COMMODITIES.
-o.
AVERAGE
1945..
1946..
1947..
...
4.2
27.6
...
6.3
19.9
1.4
9.8
9.4
1.4
10.3
6.6
0.7
13.2
1.6
1.4
24.0
2.7
1.4
29.3
8.6
1.4
24.8
12.4
1.4
23.3
13.9
1*4
33.0
13*2
2.8
44.9
14.6
2.8
43.4
17.1
...
6.8
19.0
1.2
15.9
3.6
1.4
25.8
11.6
2.3
40.4
15.0
** .
22.2
12.3
1948..
1949..
1953..
10.2
-5.8
2.5
4.5
-7.7
2.0
0.0
-10.6
1.5
2.0
-12.2
3.5
4.0
-12.2
6.0
5.4
-8.9
12.1
10.4
-3.0
17.0
9.9
-0.5
23.8
6.8
1.0
24.4
2.9
0.0
21.5
1.0
0.5
21.5
-1.4
1.5
23.4
4.9
-8.0
2.0
3.8
-11.1
7.2
9.0
-0.8
21.7
0.8
0.7
22.1
4.6
-4.8
13.3
1951..
1952..
1953..
20.4
-0.9
0.9
11.1
-2.6
1.8
-3.6
0.4
-4.4
1.8
-4.4
1.8
-3*1
^5.8
0.0
4.4
2.2
2.7
1.8
-0.9
-0.4
-1.3
-0.9
-0.4
0*4
0.0
11.1
-2.4
1.0
-3.3
-4.0
3.1
-5.1
1*3
2*1
-1.0
-0.3
-0.6
0.4
-1.3
1.4
1954..
-0.4
-1.3
-0.4
0.4
1956..
3.8
4.2
3.8
3.8
0.0
0.0
1.7
-0.4
2.6
-0.4
-0.4
7.0
2.5
0.4
10.1
5.0
0.4
8.7
7.1
1.8
6.5
5.8
1.8
4.3
5.4
2.6
4.7
5.3
-0.7
2*5
3.9
0.0
0*6
1.7
0.1
8.6
4.9
2.1
5.2
5.5
0.4
4.2
4.D
1957..
1.958*.
1959..
4.1
-0.4
3.2
2.0
-1.2
2.8
0.4
-2.0
2.4
-0.8
-1.2
2.n
-0.4
-1.2
0.0
1.2
0.4
0.4
2.4
2.4
0.0
2.4
2.8
0.8
0.4
2.4
0.0
-0.4
2.0
0.4
0*4
3.2
9.8
0.8
3.6
1*2
2.2
-1.2
2.8
0.0
-0.7
0.8
1.7
2.5
0.3
0.3
2.9
0.8
1.0
0.9
1*2
I960..
1961..
1962..
0.4
0*8
0.4
0.0
0.8
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-1.6
-1.6
0.4
-1.6
-2.4
-0.4
-1.6
-2.0
-0.4
0.0
-0.8
-1*2
-0.8
0.4
0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.8
0.4
0*4
0.0
0.8
-0.4
0.4
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
-0.1
-1.6
-2.0
-0*1
-0.4
-0.3
-0.4
-0.1
1.1
0.0
-0.5
-0.2
-0.2
1963*.
1964..
1965..
-0.4
1.2
1.2
-0.4
-0.4
0.8
-1.2
-0.8
0.8
-0.4
-0.4
1.6
0.4
-0.8
2.0
1.6
0.0
1.6
1.2
0.0
1.6
0.0
0.8
0.8
C.4
1.6
1.2
0.4
2.0
2.0
2.0
2.8
2.0
1.6
1.6
2.7
-0.7
0*0
D.9
0.5
-0.4
1.7
0*5
0.8
1*2
1*3
2.1
2.2
0.4
0*6
1.5
1966..
1967..
1968.*
2.3
1.9
4.5
3.1
1.9
4.5
3.1
0.8
3.7
3.5
0.3
1.1
3.5
0.0
0.7
3.4
0.0
0.0
1.9
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.9
1.5
0.4
3.0
3.3
1.2
3.0
3.7
1.2
3.4
3*7
1.9
3*3
4.4
2.8
1.5
4.2
3.5
0.0
0.6
1.2
2.0
2.0
1.4
3.4
3.9
2.2
1*7
2.7
5.4
6.5
4.3
2.9
0.7
1.1
2.1
3.2
5.4
1.6
...
...
...
1969..
Note:
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/' page iii.
(SEPTEMBER 1969J
111
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See trie "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or fron data which have not been seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
781 ( B ) .
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
0.0
0.0
-1.9
-3.8
-1*6
0.0
7.6
25.7
1.9
7.6
0.0
1948..
1949..
1950..
13*2
-2.9
-4.3
-10.2
-13.0
-2.9
-2.9
16.2
4.4
1.4
1951*.
1952..
1953..
19.3
0.0
-2.6
-7.8
-5.2
0.0
5.3
1954..
1955..
1956..
3.8
0.0
-1.3
-2.5
0.0
0.0
-1.3
0.0
1.3
1957..
1958..
1959..
1.2
7.3
1.2
5.0
1.2
-1.2
I960..
1961..
1962..
-1.2
-1.2
0.0
a. 4
1963..
1964..
196S..
9.6
13.1
9.5
3.8
72.0
9.4
8.6
8.6
5.9
5.8
1.3
-2.5
-1.3
1.3
2.5
8.4
0.0
1.2
2.3
1.1
1.1
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
Annual
7.1
8.fJ
2*1
-0*6
37*3
17*0
3.2
20.5
7.9
...
17.9
8.8
-7.1
0.0
LI. I
15.4
-0.9
4.4
6*6
0*5
10.0
-7.1
-4.3
9.4
2.7
-1.9
5.7
1*3
-5.2
-2.5
-1.3
12.7
-2.6
-1.7
1.0
3.3
3.0
3*1
2*6
2*5
5*3
0.0
-1.3
5.7
0.9
0.6
-2.5
0.0
6.2
1.3
1.3
1.2
-2.5
-2.5
2.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.**
0.0
5.1
-1.2
1.7
3.0
-1.2
-0.4
3.3
-0.4
0*3
2. 3
1.2
0.0
3.9
0.0
0.0
3.5
4.9
2*4
1*2
0.0
-2.4
-1.2
2.9
5.6
0.0
4.5
1.2
2.U
2.8
0.0
2.0
1.6
0.0
1.2
3.0
1.7
1.5
0.0
-1.2
1.2
3.5
4.7
0.0
1.2
0.0
1.2
-1.2
0.4
0.0
1*9
2.7
0.4
0*8
2.3
3.0
2.4
-0.4
-l.l
l.S
0.5
1.2
0.0
0.0
2.2
2.2
1.1
1.1
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.3
1*1
4*3
1.5
0*4
0.7
1.9
1.5
0.4
1*9
1.5
2.9
i.r
i«i
2*0
4.1
3.6
1.0
4.4
3. a
3.!>
4.7
4*2
3*6
4.3
2.1
3.8
4.9
3.1
3.0
4*<S
6*1
6.4
.**
...
* *»
0.0
23.6
0.0
5.8
28.1
7.4
3.8
9.7
16.3
14.3
5.6
0.0
-5.6
-8.5
13.0
8.6
8.5
7.1
5.6
4.0
7.8
2.6
-2.5
2.3
1.3
2.5
3.8
0.0
6.4
1.3
1.3
7.7
1.3
3.8
8.9
-2.5
-2.5
-2.5
-2.5
3.8
2.5
3.7
2.4
2.4
0.0
1.2
1.2
4.8
2.4
3.6
-2.4
-1.2
0.0
0.0
5.9
0.0
0.0
-1.2
2.3
2.3
1.2
4.6
1.1
-1.1
0*0
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.0
1.1
3.4
0.0
0.0
3.2
4.6
-2.3
5.5
5.6
3.4
1.1
-1.1
0.0
0.0
4.1
6.5
1.1
4.3
2.0
3*1
3.1
4.2
5.2
4*1
3.8
4.8
9.6
7.7
3.8
7.6
5.6
4.7
( CJ.
IV Q
...
1.3
8.0
-5.6
13.7
27.6
9.7
5.6
-3.1
IIIQ
AVERAGE
0.0
26.2
13.9
781
II Q
P E R C E N T CHANGES IN INDEX OF CONSUMER P R I C E S OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
( A N N . RATE, P E R C E N T J ©
1945,.
1946..
1947..
...
1 Q
-2.2
2.0
2.2
4.1
3.1
i*;!
i.s
1.31
4.0
P E R C E N T CHANGES IN INDEX OF CONSUMER P R I C E S OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
AVERAGE
(ANN. RATE, PERCENT;®
1945..
1946..
1947*.
...
0.0
2.7
...
1.3
8.0
0.0
3.8
8.0
3.9
7.0
7.5
7.1
8.8
2.1
7.8
30.6
5.2
4.5
38.0
11.0
-0.6
38.2
17.2
-1.9
21.5
14.0
0.0
22.2
11.8
3.2
20.8
8.0
3.2
12.7
12.5
...
1.7
6.2
6.3
llS.'i
4.9
0.7
32.6
14.1
2.1
16.6
10.8
i7.;t
1940..
1949..
1950*.
6.4
-7.6
-4.8
0.0
-4.3
-1.0
1.0
-2.4
1.0
7.3
1.0
3.9
11.3
0.5
4.4
10.6
-2.9
8.3
9.6
-1.0
9*2
6.7
0.5
10.1
0.0
0.5
6.1
-4.7
0.0
7.1
-7.0
-4.3
9.4
-6.1
-3.4
13*6
2.5
-4.8
-1.6
9.7
-O.S
5.5
$.4
0.0
9.1
-5.9
-2.6
10.0
2.9
-2*1)
5*3
19S1..
1952..
1953*.
16.8
-1.3
-3.4
12.8
-2.6
-1.7
6.8
-0.9
-0.4
3.6
2.2
2.2
1*8
3.5
3.0
1*8
4.4
3.4
0.0
4.6
3.4
3.1
2*6
2.6
4.4
0.4
2.6
6*6
0.0
0.0
'5.3
0.0
-1.3
3.5
-1.3
-0.8
12.1
-1.6
-1.8
2.4
3.4
2.9
2.5
2.6
2.9
5*1
-0.4
-0.7
5* '5
1.0
0*13
1954..
1955..
1956..
0*0
-0.8
-1*3
0.0
0.0
0.0
-2.1
-0.4
0.8
0*0
-0.4
3.0
0.8
0.0
2.2
1.7
0.0
0.8
-1.3
1.7
-2.6
0.4
2.1
-1.3
1.7
3.4
-1.3
-0.4
3.4
-0.4
-0.8
1.7
-0.7
-0.4
-0*2
1.0
0.4
5.3
-1.3
1.0
3.3
-1.0
0.2
2.8
-0.!>
0.3
2.1)
1957..
1958..
1959..
2.9
2.8
-0.8
2*9
5.6
0.0
3.7
4.0
0.4
3.3
3.6
1.2
4.6
1.2
2.8
5.4
1.2
3.2
4.5
0.4
2.4
2.8
0.0
2.0
0.8
-0.8
2.0
2.0
0.8
2.8
1.6
0.0
1.2
4.0
0.4
-0.4
3.2
4.1
-0.1
4.4
2.0
2.4
2.7
-0.1
2*1
2.5
0.4
1.2
3*1!
1.6
1.%
I960*.
1961..
1962.*
0.0
0.4
0.8
0.4
0.0
1.9
2.7
0.4
2.7
2.0
-0.4
1.5
2.7
0.4
1.2
1.2
1.9
1.2
1.2
1.9
1.2
0.8
2.3
3.0
c.s
1*9
1.9
2.3
1.2
1.9
2.3
-0.4
-l.l
0.4
-0.4
O.C
1.0
0.3
1*8
2*0
0*6
1*3
1*3
1.7
2.0
1.7
0.1
0.3
!.!>
0.7
1*%
1963..
1964..
1965..
0.4
0.8
0.7
1.5
0.4
0.7
0.8
0.4
1.5
0.4
0.8
2.6
1.5
1.1
4.0
3.4
1.8
3.3
3.4
1.5
1.4
1.9
1.5
6.4
0.4
0*7
0.7
1.1
1.6
2.2
1.9
1.5
2.9
1.9
1.5
2.2
0.9
0.5
1.0
1.0
1*2!
3.3
1.9
1.2
0.8
1.6
1*6
2.4
1.6
UJ>
1966..
1967..
1968..
3.6
0.7
4.1
3.6
1.0
4.4
5.4
2.1
4.4
3.6
2.8
4.4
3.2
3.5
4.7
2.8
4.2
5.3
4.3
4.5
5.3
4.2
3.8
4.3
4.2
3.4
4.6
2.8
3.1
4.9
2.1
3.8
4.9
0.7
3.8
3.9
4*2
1.3
4.3
3.2
3.S
4.8
4.2
3.9
4.7
1*9
3.6
4.6
3.4
3.1L
4. ft
3.9
6.2
7.4
7.1
6.4
5.7
6.0
5.8
6. A
...
* * «>
1969..
Note:
* * (i
9*1)
i.<>
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
(SEPTEMBER 1969)
112
INDEX
Series Finding Guide
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
escriptions
issue date) 'issue date)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series/ following this index)
B2. Production, Income, Consumption, Trade
9,21,38 5,65,71 ^ July' 68# 'July'68#l *200. GNP in current dollars
9,21,38,56 5,65,71,87 ^ Jan". ' 69 July'68# *205. GNP in 1958 dollars
9
Aug. '69
5,65
*52. Personal income
July '69
9
5,65
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg,, constr . .
July '69
9
5,65
Al. Gross National Product
200- GNP in current dollars
205. GNP in 1958 dollars
2U). Implicit price deflator
21J5. Per capita GNP in current dollars
217 Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
A2. Notional and Personal Income
220 National income current dollars
227.
10
10
Personal income current dollars
10
Disposable personal income, current dol
Disposable personal income, constant dol ... 10
Per capita disposable personal income,
10
current dollars
Per capita disposable personal income,
constant dollars
.
* « • 10
260. Federal, State, and local governments
264 National defense
266 State and local governments
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
?70 Final sates durable soods
• « *• . •
27l! Change in business inventories, durable
200 ds
......
274 Final sales nondurable goods
275. Change in business inventories,
nondurable soods
A8. Notional Income Components
?8fl
282
284
286.
288
Condensation of employees
Proprietors' income
•
....
Rental income of persons
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj
Net interest
A9. Saving
290 Gross savins private and government
292 Personal saving
•
*
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296 Capital consumption allowances
Aug. '69
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66,74
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
13,47
13,49
13,49
5,67
5,67
5,67
Aug. '69
Aug '69
Aug. '69
14
14
14,53
14
5,67
5,67
5,67,85
5,67
Aug. '69
Aug. '69
July '68# July '68#
12
12
242 Nonresidential structures
« • 12
243 Producers' durable equipment
* .... 12
12
244 Residential structures
...»
12,26
A6. Gov. Purchases, Goods and Services
5,65
57 Final sales
*54 Sales of retail stores
'69
'69
'69
'69
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5>66
5,66
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240,. Gross private domestic investment, total
2*n Imoorts of goods and services
July
July
Aug.
Aug.
Aug. '69
11
11
Total, constant dollars
11
Durable goods, current dollars
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars. . . 11
11
Automobiles, current dollars
11
Nondurable goods, current dollars
11
A5. Foreign Trade
9i\ri Npt pynnrte nf onnrte and services
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230. Total, current dollars
231>
232.
233.
234.
236.
July '68#
15
5,67
15
15
5,67
5,67
15
5,67
16
16
16
16
16
5,67
5,67
5,67
5,68
5,68
17
... 17
5,68
5,68
. . 17
17
17
5,68
5,68
5,68
18,36
18
18
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
*5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance . . . 18,36
18
*44. Unemploy. rate, is'weeks and over
19
19
19
19j,38
19
20,38
20
20
20,39
'68
Sep. '68 Sep.
'68
11, New capital appropriations, manufacturing. 24
24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries . .24
24
9. Constr. contracts, com. and indus
24
24,36
*29. New bldg, permits, private housing
6,72
6,72
6,73
6,73
6,73
Aug. '67
Sep. '68 Sep. '68
May '67
May '68 Apr. '69
June '68 Apr. '69
6,73
6,73
7,73,79
Sep. - ' 6 8 Sep. '68
Aug. '67
Nov. '68 Nov. '68
7,73
Sep. '68# Sep. '68#
7,66,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
July
Dec.
Mar.
Sep.
Mar.
'68# July '68$
'68 Feb. '69
'68
'68 Sep. '68
'68
7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
Jan.
Sep.
Jan.
Sep.
'68
'68 Sep. '68
'69 Feb. '69
'68 Sep. '68
28,37
28,37,64
28,37
7,74
7,74
7,74
Apr. '69 Apr. '69
June '69 May '69
July '69 July '68
28
28
28,37
7,75
7,75
7,75
July '69 July '68
Mar. '69 Mar. '69
Nov. '68 Nov. '68
7,75
7,75,86
June '69
June '69
7,75
7,75
July '69 July '68
Dec. '68 Nov. '68
7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76
Aug.
Aug.
Mar.
Jan.
'68 Aug. '68
'68 Aug. '68
'69
'69 July '64
30
31
31
31
7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76
June
Mar.
Feb.
June
'69 July '64
'68 July '64
'69
'69
32
32
32
32
7,77
7,77
7,77
7,77
Jan.
Apr.
June
Jan.
'68
'68 July '64
'68 July '64
'68 July '64
7,77
8,77
8,77
8,77
8,77
Jan.
Jan.
Apr.
Jan.
Jan.
'68 July '64
'69
'69
'68
'68
6,78
Sep. '69
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
Sep.
Jan.
Jan.
Sep.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries. 25
Backlog of capital approp., manufacturing . 25
Business expend., new plant and equip . . 25,39,40
.
Machinery and equipment sales and
25
business construction expenditures
}4, Inventories and Inventory Investment
245. Change in bus. inventories, all indus
*31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories
37, Purchased materials, higher inventories . .
20. Change in materials, supplies inventories .
32.
25.
*71.
65.
12,26
26,37
26
26
26
Vendor performance, slower deliveries ... 27
27
Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods
Book value, mfg. and.trade inventories . . .27,39
Book value, mfrs.' inven., finished goods . 27
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
*23. Industrial materials prices
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
*22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
29
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods. . . .29,55
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
*•* 29
29,39
B6. Money and Credit
98. Change in money supply and time deposits 30
30
30
30,37
*113. Change in consumer installment debt
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans
m
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
Aug.
Mar.
Aug.
Mar.
Aug.
'68
'69
'68
'69
'68
Aug.
June
Aug.
June
Aug.
6,69
6,69
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
Mar,
June
Aug.
Aug.
Mar.
Mar.
Dec.
Mar.
Mar.
'69
'68
'68$
'68
'69
'69
'67
'69
'69
June '69
•'Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
July '68f July '68f
6, 65 ,71
6,65,71,87 July '68? July '68$
6,71,99
Dec. '68 Nov. '68
July '69 July '68
6,71
6,71
July '69 July '68
Feb. '69
May '69
6,71
July '69 July '68
6,71
May '69
6,71
Apr. '68f
Mar. '68
Sep. '68 Sep.
15. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
45. Avg. .weekly insured unemptoy. rate
«
9,21,38
9,21,38,56
21,38,63
21,38
.21
22,38
22
22,38
6,72
6,72
6,72
6,72
6,72
Trpa^itru hill ratP
115 Treasury bond yields
48. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
*41. Employees on nonagri, payrolls
42. Persons engaged in nonagri, activities
Tables
i3. Fixed Capitol Investment
23,36
*12. Index of net business formation
23
13. New business incorporations
23,36
*6. New orders, durable goods industries
23
8 Construction contracts total value
•10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment . . .23,36
96,
97.
*61.
69.
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
Charts
Historical
Series
data
escriptions
Issue date) issue date)
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Coit.
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
222
224.
225.
226.
Current issue
(page numbers)
'68
' 69
'68
' 69
'68
Aug. '68#
Aug. '68
June '69
117
66
*72.
*67,
118.
32
Municipal bond yields
33
Consumer installment debt
Com. and industrial loans outstanding . . 33,39
.
33,39
Bank rates on short-terms bus. loans
33
Mortgage yields, residential .-.
B7. Composite Indexes
810, 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj . .34
811. 12 leading indicators, prior to reverse
trend adjustment
34
34
830. 6 lagging indicators
35
813. Marginal employment adjustments
35
814. Capital investment commitments
35
815, Inventory investment and purchasing
35
816. Profitability
*
35
817. Sensitive financial flows
June '69
June '69
Nov.
'68
'69 Nov. '68
'69 Nov. '68
'69 Nov. '68
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication data shown.
113
Series Finding Guide-Continued
(See table of contents (page i) for Chart and tables titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
descriptions
data
(issue date) (issue date)
412. Mfrs ' inventories book value
Ctiarts
Tables
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue dote)
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS-Con,
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Cl. Aggregate Series
*61 Bus expend new plant and equip
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/tatble sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
D4. Price Movements
25,39,40
41
41
41
41
420. Household income compared to year ago — 42
425. Probability of change, household income . . . 42
42
42
73,79
79
79
79
79
79
79
79
79
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Mar,
Nov.
' 68
' 68
' 68
' 68
' 6B
'69
'68
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
Nov, '68
Nov. '68
Nov. '68
Nov. '68
54,62
782. Consumer price index food
783. Consumer price index, commodities
784. Consumer price index, services
750.
58,751.
752.
54.
'M
54
Wholesale price index, all commodities . . .
29,55
Wholesale price index, mfd. goods
Wholesale price index, proc. foods, feeds. .
Wholesale price index, farm products
86
8, 80
86,75
86
86
May
May
May
May
Juno
Juno
June
Juno
'69
'69
'69
'69
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69 Juno '69
'69 Juno '69
'69 June '69
'69 Juno '69
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
C2. Diffusion Indexes
0440. New orders, manufacturing
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade
D44S. Number of employees, mfg. and trade
43
43
43
43
80
80
80
80
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
'69
'69
'69
'69
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade
D466. Selling prices, retail trade
44
44
44
44
44
80
80
80
80
80
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Nov.
Nov.
Nov,
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'60
'68
'68
D61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip
D480. Freight carloadings
480. Change in freight carloadings
45
45
45
81
81
81
Feb. '69
Feb. '69
Feb. '69
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
D45Q, Level of inventories, mfg. and trade
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trade
506. Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor
46
46
8,82
8,82
May '69
May '69
46
8,82
8,82
8,82
Apr. '69
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
. 46
512 General imports • » ........ , . . . . 46
May '69
May '69
Aug.'68# Aug. '68#
May '69
530. Liquid liabilities to foreigners
532. Liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign
534. U.S. official reserve assets
252. Exports of goods and services
253 Imports of soods and services
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted
537 Merchandise imports adjusted .
540. Investment income, military sales, and
541. Foreigners' investment income, military
expend and services, imports
548.
549
5S1.
560.
565,
564.
570.
575.
Receipts, transportation and services
Payments transportation and services ...» *
U.S. direct investments abroad
Foreign direct investments in U.S
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
Govt. grants and capital transactions
Banking and other capital transactions .*....
8,83
July '69
8,83
83
July '69 May '69
July '69 May '69
47
13,47
83
83
July '69 May '69
July '69 May '69
48
83
July '69
May '69
83
83
83
83
July
July
July
July
May
May
May
May
49
49
83
83
July '69" May '69
July '69 May '69
57
854, Ratio, personal saving to disposable
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings
unfilled to persons unemployed
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm .
856. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers . .
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. .
857. Vacancy rate total rental housing
(,.65,7X,8't July '63$ July'68#
B7
3,8?
8,88
3,88
SB
July '67
May '69
Feb.
'69
Sep.
'68
Sop.
'68
Dee.
'68
Nev. '68
July '69 July '68
SB
#, 68
58
sat
Mar.
Aug.
Aug.
'69
'69
'69
Aug. '69
Feb. '68
Si'
E3. Diffusion Indexes
01. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg — 5?
06, New orders, durable goods industries ..... 55
Sep. '68
Oct. '68
Aug. '67
55
Profits, manufacturing
Stock prices 500 common stocks
'M
Industrial materials prices
...
Initial claims, State unemploy, insurance. . 5?
m^i
m
90
90,93
00,94
90,94
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
041. Employees on nonagri. payrolls
60
6C
D47 Industrial production* * * * • .....
058. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods .... 60
91,95
91,95
91,96
91,97
Sep. '68
Dee. '68
June '69
Apr. <65
5?
034.
D19
D23
05.
60
E5. Rotes of Change
205.
820.
48.
54.
52.
47.
55-
GNP in constant dollars
Composite index of 5 coincident indicators.
Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
Sales of retail stores
Personal income
Index of industrial production
Index of whsle. prices, indus. commodities
83
July '69 May '69
49
50
50
83
84
84
July '69 May '69
July '69 May '69
July '69 May '69
50
50
50
50
50
50
84
84
84
84
84
84
July
July
July
July
July
July
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
May
May
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
51
51
51
51
51
51
84
84
84
84
84
84
July
July
July
July
July
July
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
May
May
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
8,85
8,85
8,85
July '69 July '68#
July '69 July '68# F3. Stock Price Indexes
July '69 July '68#
19. United States
July'68# July '68# 143 Canada
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
„
(tot. '64
'69
'69
'69
Sep.
Sep.
Sop.
Sep.
Sop.
Sep.
SQp.
Sop,
Sop.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
June '68
Juno '68
Juno '68
May '69
'69
Juno '69
Apr.
June '69
July '68
July '68
Nov. '68
Au«. '68
July '68
Nov. '68
June '69
Mtty '69
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
53
53
621. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
647. New orders, defense products industries — 53
53
648 New orders defense products
53
8,67,85
8,85
8,85
8,85
85
8,85
Bee. '67$
Dee.'67f
Sep.'68# Sep. '68#
Aug. '67$
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators,
'69
'69
'69
'69
56
56
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing. • • 57
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade . 57
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
57
durables
853. Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer
49
D3. Federal Government Activities
600. Fed. balance, nat'l income and prod. acct. * • 52
601. Fed. receipts, nat'l income and prod, acct . .52
602. Fed. expend., nat'l income and prod. acct. . . 52
14,53
264. National defense purchases
114
May '69
48
48
13,49
13,49
'69
'69
'69
'69
205. Actual GNP in 1958 dollars
206 Potential GNP in 1958 dollars
207. GNP gap (potential less actual)
May '69
02. Balance of Payments and Components
47
520. U.S. bal. of pmts., liquidity bal. basis
522. U.S. bal. of pmts., official settlements
47
basis
525. Net capital movements, liquidity bal. basis.. 47
527. Net capital movements, official settlements
El. Actual and Potential GNP
Fl. Consumer Price Indexes
781 United States
133. Canada
132, United Kingdom
136. France
137. Italy
54,62
62
62
62
62
62
62
Kay '69
Oat, '67
Oet. '67
Oat. '67
Oet. '67
Get. '67
Oet. '67
May '69
98
98
98
91!
96
98
98
F2. Industrial Production Indexes
47
123
122
126.
125.
128.
121.
127.
United States
Canada
United Kingdom ...
France
West Germany
Japan
OECD European countries
Italy
21,38,63
63
63
6.3
63
63
63
63
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
Deo.
'68
July '67
Nov, '67
Nov. '67
.Time '60
Apr. '68
Juno '68
Nov. '67
Nov.
United Kingdom
France
West Germany
Japan
Italy
28,37.64
64
64
64
64
64
64
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Oet. '67
Oot, '67
Oet. '67
Oet. '67
Oot. '67
Oet. '67
Oat, '67
May '69
142
146
145.
148
147.
.
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown,
'68
Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the six sections, series are listed in numerical order.
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates
monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (eid of the
month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The alphabetic-numeric designations following the series titles indicate all charts and tables in which the series may be found. See the
table of contents for chart and table titles and Series Finding Guide
for page numbers. The series in section B preceded by an asterisk
(*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, chart
B8. Unless otherwise indicated, all series which require seasonal
adjustment have been adjusted by their source.
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number and
are obtained from the same sources.
244. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential structures
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all industries (Q). » Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4, B4)
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
253. Imports of goods and services (Q). -• Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A5, D2)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)
A National Income and Product
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al, B2P B8, E5)
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). - Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics (Al, B2, B8, El, E5)
210. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al)
215. Per capita gross national product in current dollars (Q). -•
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Econo-nics and
Bureau of the Census
(Al)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau
of the Census
(Al)
220. National income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
222. Personal income in current dollars (Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
225. Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). - Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
226. Per capita disposable personal income in current dollar!; (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A3)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958 dollars (Q). Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A3)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6.D3)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and services,
total (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6)
270. Final sales, durable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods (Q). ..Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
274. Final sales, nondurable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods (Q).. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A?)
280. Compensation of employees (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A8)
282. Proprietors' income (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A8)
284. Rental income of persons (Q). --Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(A8)
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q). •Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A8)
288. Net interest (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A8)
290. Gross saving -- private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
292. Personal saving (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A9)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods except
automobiles, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A3)
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
234. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
2%. Capital consumption allowances, corporate and noncorporate
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in
current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A3)
298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q). - Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A9)
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
240. Gross private domestic investment, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
241. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidenttal
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable
equipment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
(A9)
B Cyclical Indicators
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (Bl, 68, E3, E4)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
4. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M). - Department
of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, B8)
*5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M). •- Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, E3( E4)
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M). -Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8rE3, E4)
7. New private nonfarm housing units started (M). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
8. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). -- McGrawHill Information Systems Company. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(B3)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M). -- McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(B3)
"10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(B3, B8)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (Q).-National Industrial Conference Board (B3,E3)
*12. Index of net business formation (M). - Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3, B8)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M). street, Inc.
Dun and Brad(B6)
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q). - Federal Trade Commission and Securities
and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B5)
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)0 -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(B5, B8)
n?. Index of price per unit of labor cost -- ratio, index of
wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to
seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees
(sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B5r B8)
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M). -- Standard and
Poor's Corporation
(b5,BB,t3, E4 f F3)
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
the Census
(B4)
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate,
all industries (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B5)
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5r B8, E3, E4)
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B3)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)
26. Buying policy - production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M). •- National
Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, 68)
*31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(64, B8)
Continued on reverse
115
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 115)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower
deliveries (M). •- Chicago Purchasing Agents Association
(B4)
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial Institutions
and life insurance companies (M). •• Institute of Life Insurance, Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal
National Mortgage Association, National Association of
Mutual Savings Banks, U.S. Savings and Loan League, and
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B6)
37. Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of purchased materials (M). - National Association of Purchasing
Management; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B4)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and
over (EOM). - American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(B6)
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M). -•
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment
survey (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
42. Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor' force survey (M). •» Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(Bl, 88)
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(Bl, B8)
45 Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security(Bl)
46. Index of. help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M). -- National
Industrial Conference Board
(Bl)
*47 Index of industrial production (M). - Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, E3, E4, E5t F2)
48. Man-hours fn nonagricultural establishments (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, E5)
49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM). - Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
•52. Personal income (M). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B2, 68, E5)
53. Wage and salary income In mining, manufacturing, and construction (M). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(82)
"54. Sales of retail stores (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau
(B2, B8, E3, E4, 15)
of the Census
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M).- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, £5)
*56. Manufacturing and trade sates (M). » Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B2, B8)
57. Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). ••• Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, D4, E3, E4)
*61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
(B3, 88, Cl, C2)
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing -ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value all
manufacturing industries (EOM). — Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. PRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain
current figure
(B6)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(66, B8)
116
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations •- ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B5)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)
*71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value (EOM). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(84, B8)
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
large commercial banks (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B6, BB)
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) <M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(66)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (83)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ). -National Industrial Conference Board
(B3)
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(86)
112, Net change in bank loans to businesses (M). - Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B6)
*113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(66, BB)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M). -- Treasury Department
(66)
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M). -- First
National City 8ank of New York and Treasury Department(66)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M). -- The Bond
Buyer
(86)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M). -- Department
of Mousing and Urban Development, Federal Mousing Administration
(B6)
*200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
*205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
245. Change in business inventories fGNP component) (Q). See
in section A.
810. Twelve leading indicators - reverse trend adjusted composite
index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31,
and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(67)
811. Twelve leading indicators - composite index prior to reverse
trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19,
23, 29, 31, and 113) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(67)
813. Marginal employment adjustments - leading composite index
(includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(67)
814. Capital investment commitments - leading composite index
(includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) (M). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
815. Inventory investment and purchasing - leading composite
index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37) (M). - Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
816. Profitability - leading composite index (includes series 16,
17, and 19) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(67)
817. Sensitive financial flows - leading composite index (includes
series 33, 85,112, and 113) (M). - Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B7)
820. Five coincident indicators -- composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B7, E5)
830. Six lagging indicators -- composite index (includes series 44,
61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(87)
C Anticipations and Intentions
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (Q). See in section 6.
410. Manufactuiers' sales, total value (% » Department of Commerce, ftreau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
412. Manufacturers' inventories, total book value (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
414. Percent cf total book value of inventories held by manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economies
(Cl)
416. Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective
operation; over the next 12 months, less percent classifying
existing capacity as excessive'(EOQ). •• Department of Com*
merce, Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
420. Current hcomo of households compared to income a year ago
(percent higher, lower, and unchanged) (Q). « Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
425. Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substantial
changes (increase, decrease, and Increase less decrease) in
income of households (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Bureau
(Cl)
430. Number of new cars purchased i>y households (Q).-- Department
of Commerce, Bureay of the Census
(Cl)
435. Index of consumer sentiment (Q). • University of Michigan,
Survey Research Center
(Cl)
D440. New orders, nanufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission, This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. Tins series may not be reproduced
without writtei permission Iron the source.)
(C2)
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and
Bradstred, inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written pernission from the source,) (C2)
0450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (Q). •- Dun and
Bradstrest, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written pernission from the source,) (C2)
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet, Iric, (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced witnaut written permission from the source,) (C2)
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradsitreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This scries may not be reproduced without writt3fl permission from the source.)
(C2)
D464. Selling xice >, wholesale trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. .(Used by permission. Tliis series may not be reproduced
without written permission fron the source.)
(C2)
D466. Selling i?rte, retail trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permsssisn from the source.)
(C2)
D480. Freight carloiKltngs (Q), -- Association of American Railroads
(C2)
480. Change n freirfit carload ings (Q). -• Association of American
railroads
(C2)
D Oither Key Indicators
58. Index ol wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). See in
section I).
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -• See in
section A,
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q). •- See in section
253. Imports of gwds and services:
(Q).--Sue in section A.
U.S. balance of payments
264. Federal Government purchases of foods and service;*, national
defense (Q). -- See n section A.
500. Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series 512) (M).-Departmont of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(01)
502. Exports, e/cludinf military aid shipments, total (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(01)
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 116)
506. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
508. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M). McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
512. General imports, total (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(01)
520. U.S. balance of payments on liquidity balance basis (change in
U.S. official reserve assets and change in liquid liabilities to
all foreigners) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
522. U.S. balance of payments on official settlements basis (change
in U.S. official reserve assets, and change In liquid and
certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign monetary official
agencies) (Q). -,- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
525. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers -- except
military grants -- and errors and omissions) on liquidity
balance basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
527. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers •- except
military grants -- and errors and omissions) on official settlements basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
530. Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all foreigners,
total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
532. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding military
grants) to foreign official agencies, total outstanding: U.S.
balance of payments (EQQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(D2)
534. U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q), - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
540. U.S. investment income, military iales, and other services
exports, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). --Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
541. Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures and other
services imports: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(02)
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce,,Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). — Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
546. Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
548. Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
549. Payments for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
560. Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
561. U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (series
292 divided by series 224) (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(E2)
565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (series 49) to
number of persons unemployed (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Employment Security and Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (E2)
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
600. Federal Government surplus or deficit, national income and
product accounts (Q), -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D3)
601. Federal Government receipts, national income and product
accounts (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D3)
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts
(Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(03)
616. Defense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding
military assistance (M). - Department of Defense, Fiscal
Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)
621. Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M). -Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(D3)
625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M). -- Department of Defense, Directorate for
Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(03)
647. New orders, defense products industries (M). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of trie Census
(D3)
648. New orders, defense products (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(03)
750. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
751. Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
856. Real average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing, 1957-59 dollars (M). -• Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(E2)
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing -- unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
858. Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm (Q). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents) on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1957-59 doflars (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number
and are obtained from the same sources. See section B for titles
and sources of Dl, D5, D6, Oil, 019, 023, D41, 047, D54, 058, 061,
and section C for D440, 0442, 0444, D446, 0450, D460, D462, D464,
D466, and D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
034. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q). -- First National City Bank
of New York; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)
F International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).
See in section B.
47. United States, index of industrial production (M). See in
section B.
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M). -Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
(F2)
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M) -- Central
Statistical Off ice (London)
(F2)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M). -- Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F2)
752. Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M). - Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
781. Index of consumer prices (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics.
(D4, E5, Fl)
782. index of consumer prices, food (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
783. Index of consumer prices, commodities less food (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M). -- Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal adjustment by
OECD
(F2)
126. France, index of industrial production (M). -- Institut National
de la Statist!que et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F2)
784. Index of consumer prices, services (M). -• Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M). - Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(F2)
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M). -- Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)
E Analytical Measures
47. Index of industrial production (M). See in section B.
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). See in section B.
52. Personal income (M). See in section B.
54. Sates of retail stores (M). See in section B.
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (III), See in
section B.
200. GNP in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
206. Potential level of gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
207. Gap --the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual GNP
(Series 205) (Q). - - Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
781. Index of consumer prices, ail items (M).
See in section D.
820. Five coincident indicators - composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B.
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce,
and McGraw-Hill Economics Department
(E2)
851. Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56), manufacturing and trade total (EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(E2)
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods (EOM). ~ Department of Commerce, Bureau of the.
Census
(E2)
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal
Reserve index of industrial production.)
(E2)
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M). -- Ministry of
Labour (London)
(Fl)
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(Fl)
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M). -- Statist!sches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(Fl)
136. France, index of consumer prices (M). -- In si tut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(Fl)
137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(Fl)
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M). -- Office of the Prime
Minister (Tokyo)
(Fl)
142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M). - The Financial
Times (London)
(F3)
143. Canada, index of stock prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)
145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M). -- Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(F3)
146. France, index of stock prices (M),. •- Institut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)
147. Italy, index of stock prices (M). - Istituto Centrale di Statistics (Rome)
(F3)
148. Japan, index of stock prices (M). -- Tokyo Stock Exchange
(Tokyo)
(F3)
781. United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in section D.
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