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bed
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B. DEPARTMENT
Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis
DEVELOPMENTS
September 1968
DATA THROUGH AUGUST
OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
This report was prepared in the Statistical
Analysis Division under the direction of
Julius Shiskin, Chief. Technical staff and
their responsibilities for the publication areFeliks Tamm—Technical supervision and
review,
Barry A. Beckman—Specifications for
computer processing,
Gerald F, Donahoe—New projects,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal
adjustment methods,
Betty F, Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data.
Editorial supervision is provided by Geraldine
Censky of the Administrative and Publications
Services Division.
The cooperation of various government and
private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged, The agencies furnishing
data are indicated in the list of series and
sources on the back cover of this report.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
C. R. Smith, Secretary
William H. Chartener, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
Subscription price is $7 a year ($1.75 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are
60 cents.
Airmail delivery is available at an additional
charge, For information about domestic or
foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below),
enclosing a copy of your address label. Make
checks payable to the Superintendent of
Documents.' Send to U.S. Government Printing
Office, Washington, D.C, 20402, or to any U.S.
Department of Commerce Field Office.
ABOUT THE COVER Series in this publication
are grouped according to their usual timing
and shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general business
activity. The center panel illustrates this
concept. The vertical bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which
usually fall before a contraction has begun and
rise before it has ended; the middle curve, the
Coincident Series which usually fall with the
contraction period; the bottom curve, the
Lagging Series which fall after a contraction
has begun and rise after it ends. Series are also
classified by economic process within each
timing group. Processes are indicated in the
squares bordering the panel.
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS
S»ptomt>«r 1968
U.S. BCPANTMIJNT Of COMMERCE
PREFACE This report brings together many of the available economic
indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation. The presentation
and classification of series follow the business indicators approach. The list
of indicators and their classification into "'leading/' "'roughly coincident/'
and "lagging" groups are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization which
has been preparing lists of business cycle indicators for more than 40 years.
The business cycle turrfing dates are also those designated by NBER. In
addition, all series within each timing group are classified under eight
economic processes (e.g., employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capita! investment; etc,). Some special
series included in the list (such as labor costs in manufacturing and the total
of machinery and equipment sales and business construction) have been
constructed by the NBER for purposes of business cycle analysis,
The utilization of the National Bureau list of indicators and their
cyclical turning dates is not to be taken as implying acceptance or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government agency of any
approach to business cycle analysis, nor of the special series compiled
by the National Bureau to facilitate cyclical studies,, This report is intended
only to supplement other Department of Commerce reports that provide
information so arranged as to facilitate the analysis of current business
conditions.
The unique features of BCD are the arrangement of data according
to their usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle, the
cross-classification by timing and economic process,, and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons that help in
evaluating the current state of the business cycle. In addition, the movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions and
contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads" and "lags" can be
readily detected arid unusual cyclical developments spotted.
About 116 principal series and over 300 components are used in preparing BCD. (This figure includes 19 foreign series in addition to 97 U.S.
series.) Almost all of the basic data have been published by the source agency.
A complete list of series titles and the sources of data is shown on the back
cov^r of this report.
September 1968
DATA THROUGH AUGUST
DEVELOPMENTS
CONTENTS
New Features and Changes for This Issue
Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by Economic
Process and Cyclical Timing
4 Census Projects on Economic Fluctuations
iii
„
_
v
v!i
Descriptions and Procedures
Introduction
Background
Timing Classification
Economic Process Classification
Short List of Indicators
Method of Presentation
Concepts and Procedures
References
How to Read Charts
„
„
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
3
4
„_„
.
„
„
„
.
Section One—Basic Data
Table 1.
Chart 1A.
Chart IB.
Table 2A.
Table 2B,
Changes Over 4 Latest Months
_.
„
Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
_
Series for International Comparisons From 1948 to Present
Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
Latest Data for International Comparisons.
6
9
30
33
46
Section Two—Analytical Measures
Chart 2.
Table 3.
Table 4.
Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present—
Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components
„
,_„
51
54
58
For Index—Series Finding Guide, see last pages of issue.
CONTENTS
Continued
Appendixes
A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States:
1954 to 1961
B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators „ „ _ — _ _ _
C. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See August issue)
JD. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series
____...,__—.__-,
E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and Expansion
Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961 (See August issue)
F. Historical Data for Selected Series „—*.
„_..
„_—„
G. Descriptions and Sources of Series
_,.,_„,_„—
65
66
68
69
78
Index
Series Finding Guide
_„
ii
._-____ 81
H A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect new
findings of business cycle research and newly available economic series and
to report recent changes made by producing agencies in concept, composition
comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc.
Such changes may involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in
placement of series in relation to other series, changes in components of
indexes, etc.
Changes in this issues are as follows:
1. The following series, based wholly or in part on
the survey of Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and
Orders, have been revised for the period beginning January 1961 to date: 6, 10, 20, 24, 25, 65, 96, 99,
505, 852. This revision reflects the source agency's
adoption of a new benchmark and a new seasonal adjustment.
Revised data for four other basic series (series 31,
71, 816, and 851) and diffusion index D6, which are
also affected by this revision, will be published in a
subsequent issue.
Additional information concerning this revision may
be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census, Industry Division.
2. Series 858 on output per man-hour, total private
nonfarm,and diffusion indexes Dl and D41 on average
weekly hours and employees on nonagricultural payrolls
have been revised from 1965 and 1957, respectively, to
date. These revisions reflect the source agency's
adoption of a new benchmark for, and a new seasonal
adjustment of, factory employment data. Additional
information concerning this revision may be obtained
from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Division of Industry and Employment Statistics.
3. Appendix F includes historical data for series 6,
10, 20, 24, 65, 89a, 89b, 96, 99, 505, 852, 858, Dl,
and D41.
4. Appendix G includes descriptions for series 6,
10, 20, 24> 25, 65, 89a, 89b, 96, 99, 505, and 852.
5. Appendixes C and E have been omitted from this
issue in order to provide for expanded appendixes F and
G. New average changes and related measures have been
computed for the revised series mentioned above and
have been used in table 1 and chart 1 of this issue.
The complete set of these measures will be shown when
appendix C is reinstated next month.
The October issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is
scheduled for release on October 29.
iii
;tl§!i;:feii
Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
(Minor economic processes and the number of series in each process are shown for each classification. See the index and back cover for series titles)
Cyclical
Timing
LEADING INDICATORS
(36 series)
Economic
Process
. EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(25 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
(14 series)
IV. INVENTORIES AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED
BY CYCLICAL TIMING
(15 series)
Long-duration unemployment
(1 series)
Comprehensive production •
(3 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive consumption
and trade (3 series)
, PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive employment
{3 series)
Comprehensive unemployment
(3 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment commitments
(8 series)
Backlog of investment
commitments
(2 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
Investment expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
(9 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(11 series)
Sensitive commodity prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit margins
(4 series)
Comprehensive wholesale prices Unit labor costs
(2 series)
(2 series)
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Flows of money and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)
(17 series)
VII. FOREIGN TRADE
AND PAYMENTS
(6 series)
VIII. FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT
ACTIVITIES
(8 series)
Comprehensive retail
prices (1 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans and mortgages
(2 series)
Foreign trade and
payments
(6 series)
Federal Government
activities
(8 series)
BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A monthly report for analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short span of years.
This report brings together several hundred monthly and quarterly "economic
indicator" series for the analysis of short-term economic trends and prospects.
These series have been selected, tested, and evaluated,, after half a century
of continuing research, as the most useful and reliable for this purpose. The
publication provides not only the basic data, but also various charts and
analytical tables to facilitate interpretation. In addition, a time series punchcard file and a diffusion index program are available for those who wish to
carry on further research in the analysis of short-term business conditions
and prospects.
DEFENSE INDICATORS. A monthly report for analyzing the current and
prospective impact of defense activity on the national economy.
This report brings together the principal time series o;n defense activity
which influence short-term changes in the national economy. These include
series on obligations, contracts, orders, shipments, inventories, expenditures,
employment, and earnings. The approximately 30 time series included are
grouped in accordance with the time at which the activities they measure
occur in the defense order-production-delivery process. Most are monthly
though a few are quarterly. This publication provides original and seasonally
adjusted basic data in monthly, quarterly, and annual form. Charts and
analytical tables are included to facilitate interpretation.
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH. A report for the study of economic
fluctuations over a Jong span of years, 7860-7965.
This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy. It has been planned,
prepared, and published as a basic research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical
basis for a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique presentation
of the full range of factors required for an understanding of our country's economic development. Some of the statistical series go back to 1860. A punchcard file of the time series included in the report is available for purchase.
CENSUS METHOD II ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM. A time series computer
program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical,
and irregular fluctuations and the relations among them. This program
is particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which take place
within a year.
The latest variant, X-ll, has greater generality and scope than any of the
earlier programs. It can adjust quarterly as well as monthly series ;and series
with negative and positive numbers as well as those with positive numbers
alone. The X-ll version measures and adjusts not only for seasonal variations, but also for trading-day variations. Further, it computes many summary
and analytical measures of the behavior of each series. The program includes
various techniques, such as F tests and variance analysis, for use in extending
the scope of time series studies and is written in a simplified computer
language—Fortran IV. The program deck can be purchased from the Census
Bureau at cost.
vi
DESCRIPTIONS
AND
INTRODUCTION
The business cycle is generally described as consisting
of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in
aggregate economic activity—that is, the complex of
activities represented by such concepts as total production, employment, income, consumption, trade, and the
flow of funds. Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many
economists do not consider it inevitable.
The causal relations among various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces and explain why expansions
have eventually turned into recessions and recessions
into expansions. Cyclical fluctuations in production
and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures which relate to future rather than current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
formation of new business enterprises, and accessions
to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations in
various economic costs, such as labor costs, interest
rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments, and holdings of inventories and debts.
BACKGROUND
The National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(NBER) has, since 1938, maintained a list of indicators of aggregate economic activity, and has periodically subjected that list to extensive review. The third
revision of the original list was published in March
1967 and in the following month became the basis for
the presentation of U.S. series in BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS. Previous issues of BCD were
based on the 1960 NBER list.
The revised list of indicators includes some new
series, discontinues some of those on the previous list,
and assigns timing classifications to some series formerly unclassified by timing. The method of preparing
the new list, the reasons for adding or dropping series,
and an explanation of the classification system are described in Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions. (See reference 8, page 3.) The three major
features of the new list are the classification of series
by cyclical timing, the classification by economic process, and the short list of indicators.
TIMING CLASSIFICATION
Cyclical timing is the major principle of classification
employed in the new list. Timing at both peaks and
troughs is taken into account in grouping the series
into leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators. These three groups are described as follows:
Leading Indicators—36 series that usually reach
peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic
activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these series pertains
to orders and contracts, another to inventory investment, and so on.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—25 series that are
direct measures of aggregate economic activity or
move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production, and
retail sales.
Lagging Indicators—11 series, such as new plant
and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning points after
they are reached in aggregate economic activity.
In addition, the new list contains a group of 15 series unclassified by cyclical timing. These are series
which have an important role in business cycles but
do not display a consistent timing relation to them.
Also included in BCD, but not on the NBER list,
are (1) a group of $eries which, although they measure
significant economic relationships, remain unclassified
by cyclical timing and economic process; and (2) indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and
stock prices for several countries which have important trade relations with the United States.
The historical business cycle turning dates used in
this report are those designated by the NBER. They
mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical
high or low levels. As a matter of general practice,
neither new reference turning dates nor the shading for
recessions will be entered in BCD until after both the
new reference peak and the new reference trough
bounding the shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession
and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
for a current recession without including part of a new
expansion. (See appendix A for historical peak and
trough dates.)
ECONOMIC PROCESS CLASSIFICATION
A secondary principle of classification, economic process, supplements the timing classification. Series are
cross-classified according to both principles. Eight
major economic process categories are used: (I) Employment and Unemployment, 14 series; (II) Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade, 8 series; (III)
Fixed Capital Investment, 14 series; (IV) Inventories
and Inventory Investment, 9 series; (V) Prices, Costs,
and Profits, 11 series; (VI) Money and Credit, 17 series; (VII) Foreign Trade and Payments, 6 series;
and (VIII) Federal Government Activities, 8 series.
Most of these major categories are subdivided into
minor economic processes that exhibit rather distinct
differences in cyclical timing.
SHORT LIST OF INDICATORS
A short, substantially unduplicated list of principal
indicators provides a convenient way to summarize
the current situation and outlook. Thus, a short list of
25 indicators, taken from the full list, has been designated by the NBER. This list includes 12 leading,
seven roughly coincident, and six lagging indicators;
21 series are monthly and four are quarterly. These
series are identified by asterisks throughout the report.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report consists of two major sections;
Basic Data (chart 1, tables land 2).—Data for all
series are shown for the current and prior periods
in both graphic and tabular form. Thus, a broad
view of past and current business cycle fluctuations
is provided.
Analytical Measures (chart 2, tables 3 and 4).—
Measures are presented which help to determine
the magnitude and scope of current changes in different processes, industries, and areas, and aid in
evaluating the prospects of a turning point in the
business cycle.
A list of titles and sources for all scries is shown on
the back cover of this report. The scries numbers are
for identification only; they do not reflect scries relationships or order. The index (Series Finding Guide),
which appears at the end of this report, is helpful for
locating specific series throughout the various charts,
tables, and appendixes.
CONCEPTS AND PROCEDURES
Several other concepts and procedures used in this
report are summarized below:
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are
often necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical
trends of a series. In most cases, the seasonally adjusted
data used for a series are the official figures released
by the source agency. In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle studies, a number of series
that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted
form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this
report. The seasonal adjustment process usually accounts for variations due to holidays; however, there
are some cases in which a separate holiday adjustment
is needed for holidays with variable dates.
Months for cyclical dominance (MCD) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the
cyclical movements in a monthly series. MCD moving
averages are shown in chart 1 for series with an MCD
of "5" or more; however, to provide an indication of
the variation about these moving averages, monthly
data are also plotted.
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures
which express the percentage of the components of an
aggregate series rising over given time spans. Their
turning points tend to lead those of the aggregate.
Series numbers preceded by "D" designate diffusion
indexes. Many of the component series used to make
up the diffusion indexes are shown in table 4.
(5)
Gordon, R. A. "Alternative Approaches to
Forecasting: The Recent Work of the National Bureau," The Review of Economics
and Statistics, vol. XLIV, No. 3 (August
1962), pp. 284-291.
(6)
Lempert, Leonard H. "Leading Indicators,"
How Business Economists Forecast (William
F. Butler and Robert A. Kavesh, Ed.) pt. I,
ch. 2, pp. 31-47. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.:
Prentice-Hall, 1966.
(7)
Moore, Geoffrey H., Editor, Business Cycle
Indicators. New York: National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc., 1961.
(8)
Moore, Geoffrey H. and Shiskin, Julius. Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, Occasional Paper 103. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1967.
(9)
Morris, Frank E. "The Predictive Value of
the National Bureau's Leading Indicators,"
Business Cycle Indicators, vol. I, ch. 4, pp.
110-119. New York: National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc., 1961.
During the current expansion, high values for the
indicators are identified in table 2. These values are
not necessarily cyclical peak values, but are simply the
highest values reached to date.
Certain appendix materials are presented regularly
in this report. These materials include historical data,
adjustment factors, peak and trough dates, and other
information helpful in interpreting trends in the
indicators.
REFERENCES
More comprehensive explanations of the use of indicators of aggregate economic activity in analyzing current
business conditions and prospects may be found in the
following references:
(1)
(2)
Alexander, Sidney S. "Rate of Change Approaches to Forecasting—Diffusion Indexes
and First Differences," The Economic Journal,
June 1958, pp. 288-301.
Broida, Arthur L. "Diffusion Indexes,"
American Statistician, vol. IX, No. 2 (June
1955), pp. 7-16.
(10) Okun, Arthur M. "On the Appraisal of Cyclical Turning Point Predictors," Journal of
Business, April 1960, pp. 101-120.
(3)
Burns, Arthur F. and Mitchell, Wesley C.
Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1946.
(11) Shiskin, Julius. Business Cycle Indicators:
The Known and the Unknown. Paper presented at the 34th session of the International
Statistical Institute, Ottawa, Canada, August
24, 1963. Washington: Bureau of the Census,
1963.
(4)
Daly, D. J. and White, D. A. "Economic Indicators in the 1960's," Proceedings of the
Business and Economics Statistics Section,
American Statistical Association, August
1966, pt. V, pp. 64-75.
(12) Shiskin, Julius. Signals of Recession and Recovery, Occasional Paper 77. New York:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1961.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion as designated by NBER.
CHART 1 - Business Cycle Series
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted,
("3"=IVIarch)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series
relationships or order. Series are
arranged in charts and tables according to their classification by
timing and economic process.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted,
II"-second quarter)
Solid line indicates monthly data,
(Data may be actual monthly figures
or MCD moving averages.*)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc,),
40
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVz, 2, or
2Vz months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See appendix C for a description of MCD moving averages,
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
' series, "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale U" is a logarithmic
scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic
scale with 2 cycles in that distance,
etc. The scales should be carefully
noted because they show whether
or not the plotted lines for various
series are directly comparable.
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Scale show?; percent of components
rising.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("2"=
February)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("IV"fourth quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data,
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the Index—Series Finding Guide in the back of the book where series are arranged into eight groups
by economic process and cross referenced by timing classification in the first column. The back cover, which lists series titles (followed
by a Roman numeral denoting economic process group) and sources in numerical order within each timing group, may also be helpful to
some readers.
Section ONE
DATA
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment
Prices, costs, and profits
Money and credit
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Productionr Incomef consumption, and trade
Fixed capital investment
Prices, costsf and profits
Money and credit
LAGGING INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment
Prices, costs, and profits
Money and credit
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
Prices, costs, and profits
Foreign trade and payments
Federal Government activities
Also SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING AND ECONOMIC PROCESS and INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS (indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and sfodc prices
for selected foreign countries)
Table 1
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
bed
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Average percent change1 2
Aug. '67
to date
(with
sign)3
Duration
(months)
Percent change z
Basic data 8
CurAug. '67 1953 to
Aver- rent
to date
1967
6
(without4 (without age direcsign) sign)4 5
tion 7
June
1968
Unit of
measure
July
1968
May
tc
J une
1908
Aug.
1968
June
to
July
1968
July
to
Aug.
1968
0,0
+1,6
-0.?
Series
CURRENT PERFORMANCE;
COMPARATIVE MEASURES
rater
|
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
LEADING INDICATORS
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*L Avga workweek production workers, mfg. .
*30 Nonasri placements alt industries
2, Accession rate, manufacturing.
5, Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted^)
.
3* 1 ayoff rate manufacturing (inverted^)
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*38U Index of net business formation
13 New business incorporations . . * «
New Investment Commitments:
*6 New orders durable goods industries
....
*in.
11.
24^
9.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment —
New capital appropriations, manufacturing9 . . .
New orders mach and equip industries ....
Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial buildings.
/„ Private nonfarm housing starts. . *
*29-- New building permits private housing
0.0
•tO.l
+0.7
0.7
3.8
3.5
0.5
2.1
4.6
2.2
2.0
2.2
i Hours
*
I
IPer 100 employ..*
+0.4
+0,2
4.3
a.i
5.3
8.8
1.7
2.4
i
i Per IQO.employ. . .
+0.7
+0.9
1,0
2.3
0.8
2.5
2.9
1.8
+0.4
+1.7
+1.5
-0.3
+0.7
2.5
7.2
4.2
3-3
2.4
3.5
6.4
4.6
9.3
4.0
+1.7
•H.l
+1,0
9.7
7. /
6. 9
+1.8
o.O
40.9
504
r4.5
512
p4.7
(NA)
190
1.1
2U
pi. 2
(NA:
4 1957-59-100 ....
4
116.2
19,197
110.5
(NA'
(KAj
1.8
1.6
1.8
9.2
1,9
1 Bit dollars
2 1957-59=100....
1 Bil dollars
do
3
1
do
r26.70
160
r-26.57
187
8.5
7.2
3.9
1.5
1.6
1.9
1 floor space —
1 Ann, rate, thous . .
1 1957-59-100.... |
6,0
2.7
5.2
3 Ann. rate, bil.dol, t
-0,2
6.3
3.3
1.5
1
+2.4
4.8
6.5
2.4
1 Percent
+0.3
1.5
1.4
1.6
I Ann. rate, bil.dol,.
+0.1
3.6
5.0
1.8
1 Percent
201
pl.9.2
*1
*30
(NA)
41.6
-12.*.!
I)
3
46,1
-9,1
(NA)
+ 2.H
+ 1.7
(NA)
(NA)
*3(j
-1.7
-7,0
+ U/.(>
42.7
+ 13.2
9<i
no
+9 , 5
-4,4
+ 3.7
1!
24
-0.9
+ 8,0
+1.0
!
Mil. sq. ft.
66.3?
rl , 34 J108.6
rt09.3
r+6.3
p,7.2
pio'-iU
io'.l
!)
•t 0.6
-1 . -'.
-3,4
+0.9
(NA^
IV, INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries 9 10
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories *Q
, ....
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inventories
of materials and supplies10
26, Buying policy, prod, materials, commitments
60 days or longer ©
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower del iveries @
*
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods
industries10
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Sensitive Commodity Prices;
*23« Industrial materials prices ©
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices 500 common stocks ©
....
Profits aid Profit Margins:
9
*16. Corporate profits after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate all industries
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing9
*17. Ratio, price to* unit tabor cost, manufacturing . .
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in money supply and time deposits10 . .
85- Change in U.S. money supply10
33. Change in mortgage debt
*113 Change in consumer installment
debt 10
112 Change in business loans 10
110 Total private borrowing^
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted2)
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans,
21
;
do
59
I
+0.9
5.8
7.4
3.1
1
+0.03
0,81
0.48
1.7
1 Bil dollars
-0.3
0.9
1,3
+ 0.4
2.4
+2.2
do
+7.3
r+1.7
(KA'>
-3.0
67
66
+4.7
46
o.n
0.0
-17.9
32
-0.59
-0.36
+ 1.B1
25
-0.5
-1.3
+ 2,7
~0.2
r-0,93
r-1.29
2.6
1 1957-59=100....-
95.6
94,4
2.5
2.4
2 1941-43-10
100.53
100.30
3. a
5.2
9.0
3 Ann. rate, bil.dol. .;
=0,2
+2.8
=0.2
2.5
2.8
0.5
4.2
5.6
0.6
7.2
7.9
2.5
6 Percent
9 Cents
1 1957-59=100.-..'
T*99. ^
P97.8
-0,1
+0.1
40.12
=0.20
-0.42
+ 0.37
+0.40
+2.5
2.34
4.86
1.90
0.63
9.25
13.1
2.42
2.85
1.34
0.86
2.77
11.0
1.5
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.6
6.7
1 Ann. rate, percent.; r+5.16
1
r+6,48
do
1 Ann. rate, bil.dol. . r+17.14
+ 7.53
do
3
1
do
;
+6.41
3 Ann. rate, mil. doL.
+14.40 p+13.32
iH-U.76
P+5.CK
(NA)
p+18.25
(HA)
+ 8.18
+13.81
p-4.33
-2.28
-5.28
»5.82
-0.26
-4,18
+9.24
-3.7
30.1
19.6
1.5
1 Mil. dollars
54.58
•t-33.7
5.0
2.7
5.2
2 Percent
* .1
2(1
26
i
+0.8
(NA)
-2,9
56
;
37
47.7
52
94-*
*31
*23
-2.2
[
* ib
2?
[(13
62.32
1.57
96.96
(NA)
-1.7
-1.08
93
-9.72
(NA)
33
(NA)
*113
+7.40 -18.14 112
110
+ 1.3
-S5.6
443.7
14
(NA)
39
Table 1
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
i
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued
Average percent change1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
2
CURRENT PERFORMANCE
Duration
(months)
Basic data8
Aug. '67 Aug. '67 1953 to
Curto date to date
1967 Aver-6 rent
(with
(without age direc-7
(without
sign)3
sign)4 sign)45
tion
Series number
COMPARATIVE MEASURES
Percent change 2
May
to
June
1968
June
to
July
1968
P365
p!98
-3.3
+1.1
-3.9
-0.8
+7.0'
301
46
r!35.46 r!35.93 p.136.48
. r68,039 r68,201 p68,409
72,197 72,202 72,196
+0,6
+0.4
+0.4
+0.3
40.2
0.0
+0.4
+0.3
0.0
511
*41
42
June
1968
Unit of
measure
July
1968
Aug.
1968
July
to
Aug.
1968
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
L EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Job Vacancies:
301 NonagrL job openings unfilled
383
189
3
1 1957-59=100....
r368
r!85
+0.4
+0.9
3.0
3.0
3.1 3.7
3.0
3.0
+0.3
0.6
0.4
2.8
+0.3
+0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
0,4
4.7
2.2
+0.5
5.0
3.8
2.7
2
+0.9
+1.2
3.2
5.3
4.2
5.9
5,0
3.4
4
2
+2.4
+1.4
+0.3
2.4
1.4
0.7
1.6 20.3
1.2 10.8
1.0 3,5
90 Ann. rate, bil. dol
do......
15
1 1957-59-100....
r!65.2
rl65.6
pl64.0
+0.6
+0,2
-1.0
49
*50
*47
+0.8
+0.7
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.8
5.4
2.8
34
4
Ann. rate, bit. doL
do
683,7
177.1
689.2''
r!77.8
P694.3
p!78,6
+0.8
+0.3
+0,8
+0.4
+0.7
40.4
*52
53
+0,9
+2.2
+0.8
1.5
2.2
1.5
1.0 2.3
1.4 36.6
0.9 2.2
3
123
4
(NA)
Mil dollars . . r96,473 p98,391
Ann. rate, bil. dol.
r29,075 P29A63
Mil dollars ....
+1,2
+2.0
(NA)
+1.1
+2.8
+0.3
*816
57
*54
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96 Unfilled orders durable goods industries11
97. Backlog of capital appropriation;;, mfg, -
+0.2
+0.4
0.8
0.4
1.4
5.4
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55 Wholesale prices industrial comnod. @
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods ©
+0.2
+0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
4.1
3.3
3 1957-59-100
1
do
+40
105
93
2.1
2
+1.5
+0.4
+0.2
+0.5
3.5
2.4
2.5
3.0
6.4
1.8
1.7
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2
3
+1.1
4.4
6.3
4.1
+1.6
3.3
3-1 17,4
+0.2
1.2
1.7
1.9
+0.5
0.5
0.5
6.8
Comprehensive Employment:
42 Persons engaged in nonagri activities.
Comprehensive Unemployment: •
*43 Unemployment rate total (inverted2 )
45- Avg. weekly insured
unemploy. rate,
State (inverted2)
40. Unemployment rate, married males (inverted2) . .
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
Comprehensive Production:
49u GNP in current dollars?
*50. GNP in 1958 dollars9
*47 Industrial production
Comprehensive Income:
*52 Personal income
53 Wages salaries in mining mfg constr
.
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*816 Manufacturing and trade sales
57* Final sates?
*54 Sales of retail stores
•
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Bank Reserves:
93 Free reserves ^^ftnverted^) (u)
Money Market Interest Rates:
116 Corporate bond yields © ......
5.1
12.4
Ann. rate, biL
man-hours
11 Thousands .
do
4
5
Percent
do
do
1 Bil. dollars .
12 ..... do
....
3.8
3.7
3.5
-8,6
+2.6
+5.4
*43
2,2
1.7
2.3
1.6
2.3
1.6
0.0
-6.2
-4.5
+5.9
0,0
0.0
45
40
r80.97
p20,66
r79.6S
p80.21
-1.1
+0.9
-1.6
+0.7
96
97
108.8
109.4
rlOS.8
109.7
108.9
109.5
+0.2
+0.3
0.0
+0.3
+0.1
-0.2
55
58
p-185
+15
-115
5.10 : -1.4
6.54 +0.3
5.04 -3.1
4*21 -0.9
-1.6
-2.7
-3.8
Mil. dollars
-341
r-226
Percent
5.54
7.02
5.23
4.50
5.38
6.91
5.09
4.33
0.5
0.6
2.6
do
do
do
>'
-a. 9
93
-41
114
116
115
117
-5.2
-5.4
-1.0
-2,8
LAGGING INDICATORS
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Long-Duration Unemployment:
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
jij weeks and over (inverted2)
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Investment Expenditures:
*61 Bus expenditures new plant and equip,
505. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventories:
*71 Book value mfg and trade inventories
65. Book value, mfrs." inventories of
.•
+0.4
0.4
0.6
3.3
3
Percent
13
13
Bil. dollars
do......
0.0 -20.0 +16.7 *502
ra64«90
Ann. rate, bil. dol.
do
0.5
+3.4
•61
505
P79.88
(NA)
+0.7
-1.2
(NA)
: r!44.88 P145.48
(NA)
+0.4
+0.4
(NA)
1
r80,86
r27.64
27.79
(HA)
+0.2 ....+P-5
*71
1
65
7
Table 1
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
bed
]
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued
Average percent change *
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
2
Duration
(months)
Basic data 8
Aug. '67 Aug. '67 1953 to
Curto date
to date
1967
Aver-6 rent
(without (without age direc
(with
sign) 3
sign)4 sign) 45
tion7
June
1968
May
to
Junt;
1968
June
to
July
1968
July
to
Aug.
1968
July
1968
Aug.
1968
rllO.2
pll2.0
+0,4
40.1
+1.6
68
*62
80,885
69,739
(NfA)
p68,?53
+0.3
+C.9
+0.9
+2.5
(NA)
-1.4
66
*72
i
Unit of
measure
Percent change2
Series number
CURRENT PERFORMANCE
COMPARATIVE MEASURES
LAGGING INDICATORS-Continued
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Unit Labor Costs;
68- Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross
product (1958 dol ), nonfin. corp
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
0.6
0.5
0,9
4-0.4
+0.6
+0.7
0.6
1.1
0.8
1.0
+3.8
+0.9
3,8
1.4
2.2
0.6
+0.3
0.3
0.2
4.2
837
1,290
168.2
6.5
8.1
8,1
3.6
341
571
5.5
6.0
1,6
1.8
1.4
1.6
+0.6
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding. . .
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages:
*67* Bank rates on short-term bus loans' (u) ....
118. Mortgage yields, residential ®
0.6
10.6
2.5
13.5
30 Dollars
( 1957-59=100 . . . rllO.l
86 Mil dollars
3.7
7.9
do
80,203
68,0.16
do
7.52
7*42
6,89
7.35
(NA)
-i'.'l
+0.7
-0.9
*67
118
120,9
121.5
121.9
+C.5
+0.5
-0.3
81
12 Percent
10.6
SERIES UN CLASSIFIED BY
CYCLICAL TIMING
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Retail Prices:
81- Consumer prices @
VII.
*
36 1957-59-100....
FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments: 9 10
a. I iquidity balance basis
<
b. Official settlements basis
10
88- Merchandise trade balance
«
86- Exports excluding military aid • . t
861. Export orders, durables exc. mot- veh
862* Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
87. General imports
¥
+211
+404.
•- -27.9
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
95. Federal surplus (+) or deficit
(•), nat't.
income and prod, accts 9 10 . . , .
951. Fed. receipts, nat'l, income and product accts 9 .
952. Fed, expenditures, nat'l, income and product . .
101. National defense purchases, current dollars9. . .
9L Defense Dept obligations, total ...»
90% Defense Dept. oblig,, procurement
99. New orders, defense products industries ......
92. Military contract awards in U S ...»
+1.4
+0.7
+0.9
+2.5
2.0
4.1
3,3
2.7
9.0
57.7
3.6
10,4
6.4
2.9
2.6
2.5
2,2
2.3
i.a
6 Mil dollars ..
6
do
1. .
do
do
2
do
1 1957-59=100..,.
1 Mil dollars
6.7
p6,748
pl,996
r2.96
3,067
7,412
2,323
r3>67
3,937
1.50
pi, 48
(NA)
r3.28
r3,20
rll7, H
rir-.3
Ann, rate, biL dol.
+0.9
+4.1
+3.3
+2.7
+1,0
+4.3
+4.0
+0.2
20.1
16.7
14.2
13.6
26.2
20.0
20.9
8.7
1,4
1.4
1.5
1.5
+0.2
-0.4
0.3
1.4
2.2
1.0
8.7
2.8
3 Percent
3 Ratio
1.9
1.9
2.1
1
1.0
0.9
2.8
1 1957-59=100....
12.0
12.2
-80. 0
2,759.3
r989
223
2,839.3
89
a
b
-50.1
-47.8
+
88.5
+213,6
+13*. 6
88
+4.0
+!.<-) +1.6
2,803.0 2,915.8
86
(NA)
(NA)
-5.<i
p9l6
-7.4
861
(NA)
+7.6
(NA)
-5.9
p240
862
+•6.1
-6.2
+ ••.2
2,664.4 2,827.3
87
do
33
do
42
do
39
1 Mil. dollars
do
1
2 Bil. dollars
1 Mil. dollars
+ 16.4
+24.0
+28.4
-19,4
95
951
952
101
91
90
99
92
-0,r'
-1.3
INA)
850
851
P3.39
-2.4
-2.4
+ 5.9
852
pi 17. 8
-0.2
-0,4
+0.4
-S.3
-1;.2
P3.96 -26.2
-27.3
3,173
(NA)
(NA)
+9.8
(NA)
(NA)
+7.9
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL
TIMING AND ECONOMIC PROCESS
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg. 9 . . „
....
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg., trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
!. ........
854' Ratio, personal saying to disposable
personal income
855. Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled
to persons unemployed
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm9
856. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers, mfg.. .
859. Real spendable avg, weekly earnings, nonagri.
prod, or nonsupv. workers
857. Vacancy rate, total rental housing9®
0.0
-0.3
+0.7
6.7
8,2
4.7
+1,1
+0.7
+0.1
5.6
0.7
0.3
5.5
0.9
0.4
3.3
9.6
3.1
+0.1
-3.5
0.5
6.0
0.3
3.8
2.0
6.3
. do
3 Ratio
1
do
15 1957-59-100....
4 1957-59 dollars...
1
7
Percent
853
854
do
0.129
2.48
79.25
rO.:25
pO.132
-9 . '.I
2,48
p2.48
0.0
r7S.76
p78 t S3
+C.6
-3.1
0.0
-0.6
+ 5.6
0.0
855
858
856
-0.1 859
857
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. ©Not seasonally adjusted.
NA^not available;
r=revised;
^preliminary;
^estimated;
^anticipated.
2
^•Average percent changes are based on month-to-rnonth (or quarter-to-quarter) percent changes for the specified periods.
To facilitate interpretations cf cyclical movements, those
series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3,5, 14, 39,40, 43,
Af\ Q1 anri Rfl^ Perront rhanooc arc rnmnntari In the nciial maw hut tho cinnc aro rauorcari Coo fnrvfrmtain fAr nthor "rhunno" mialifir^tinno
• Ai^nrnnr rnmmitotl ujith rfinirH tft cinn
8
change columns) measured in months. When there is no change between two consecutive values the direction is assumed to be the same as that of the preceding period.
Senes are seasonally adjusted except for those 10series, indicated by®, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2.
^Quarterly scries; figures are placed in
the middle month of quarter. Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same
unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percentages.
End-of-quarter series; figures are placed in the last month of quarter.
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Leading Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.]
P T
,-;
'.:•;"-.••
(May) (Feb.)
P T
*1. :;Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (hours)
I
C-'*--'. -•-
i
i
;,
2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)
.-inverted scale)
employees-inverted scale)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk (*] identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 33.
65
66
67
1968
BASIC DATA
bed
SEPTEMBER MI68
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.
P
T
8. index of nflls. formation [1957-59-100]
ntracts, total value (index:
MCD ftovton IV8.r9*ftMH
~ »
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
1
59
50
61
62
63
64
65
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' pag@>4'. Asterisk {*) identifies series on 'short list . Current data ?®r these series are shown on pages 33 and 34.
Digitized for10
FRASER
66
®7
1908
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators -Continued
IK. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT- Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
, New capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol
24. New orders,
and equip. M*$. [bil. dol.l ij
9. Constr.
of floor a
ts, com. and;;JSte. (mil. sq. ft.
permits, private
j
nits (index: 1957-59=100)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67 1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2/ page 4. Asterisk (*} identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 34.
11
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 196(1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
JSL. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
[July] (Aug.)
T
P
(July) (Apr.
T
P
(May) (Feb.]
T
T
nies reporting higher inventories
percent of companies
lays or longer
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2; page4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data far these series are shown on page 35.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
12
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
65
66
67
1968
bed
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
beef
SEPTEMBER 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
BE. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.
P
T
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
!l
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
'
i'
;
iL J
iLjuLjL.Lj^iJ^j^iAJ,
JLJ; rJ'.jLjL.jL.i._/u_v-j
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 3,' page 4. Asterisk (*] identifies series on 'short list'.. Current data for these series are shown on pages 35 and 36.
13
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July) (Aug.)
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
*t7. Ratio,••to urm labor
JLJUlJLJUU.Ji.,1 l.JL.LJi.J!. JJBiM«M|i.j;.jl L.JLil..'LJ f!JL:L.fi!MMlJLJLJLJlJl.JL,L.Lll»lAJULjl JL Ui.M i] il :l I KJUL1.AJLJLJLJLJ: ..1_'
1948
49
50
51
92
53
54
55
56
57
58
&
59
60
61
62
63
64
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page-4. Asterisk |*| identifies series on 'short list*. Current data far these series are shown on page 36.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
14
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
65
66
67 1968
bed
bed
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
ST. MONEY AND CREDIT
8. Change
arm. rate,
y supply and time deposits
MCDij moving avg,jf-6-ter|i]
ange in money
su[«f|ann. rate, iterMffMCD moving avg.-6-term)
]
II
\
:
il
i
;
i'
!i
tl
hange in mortf^e debt (ann, rate, bit. dol.)
*1!3. ChangeHpnsumer instapMrt debt (ann.jrate, bii. dol
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2 r ' page 4. Asterisk (') identifies series on 'shart list'.
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
67
1968
Current data for these series are shown on page 37.
15
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
. MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
T
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
100 n
6040-
20-
49-
80100120140-
160-
100-
1.0-
, 3u oays ana over, total
s (percent-inverted scab)
1.5-
2.02,5™
3,0J
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
Seo 'How t;o Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4, Current data for these series are shown on page 37.
16
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(May) [Feb.]
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
job oplilis unfilled, 8ES (thousands)
ising index: 1957-59=100)
11. Man-hours Jn Tionagri. establishments
engaged in |gwri. activities
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2/ page4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 38.
17
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 196B
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
I
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
Avg, weekly insu^f ^employment tlplpercent-kiverted scale)
I.
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
00
61
62
63
64
65
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and a,' page 4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'short list' Currant data for these series are shown on pages 38 and 39.
18
66
67 1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
H. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
^Tp
h ~ n inrnmrH^B^H^lHH^^B
jmg^ u Ul l f ( ) l 1, 1 IU1 lo I V C IMLUIMC
^^ggggjg/fjjjjgfg^^fi^jii^i^^^gjjfjjjjgjn
!
-'.'":';•
:.'
!
:;
• •' : ''V' '
'
"-" /'" '
!
'
'
,
' ' ' . * "
i
:"'• -'-'"* '
••
,
;
i'
:;~ "'>.'-'
/
" ''
'
•
:
(May) (Feb.)
P T
:
.,
'" '
;
'
^l
.
;>
'-
'
i
n
i
: • ••
< •
I
'
^
;
:
;
;
,
,
,
*52 Persona income fann rati bil riot t
tj
.
'
'
-i -. ir
i n
ii
i
X
u m
, yS
:
i. ty\ N
x/" :
.,
inn
/UU "
650 .
BOO
RRfl -
';
Rnn -
^'
Z
s
190n
180170160150-
'7
53. Wages and salarLGsJuninine
r^fg,, oitnstr. [ann. rate, bi*. do(| ^/^
140- ^
^r
130120110-
\s
10090-
^
8070-
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
900 -i
850800«
*816. Mfg. and trade sales (bit, dol.)
750-
57. Final sales, Q
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)
700-
650«
6003028»
*54. Sales of retqji
stores (bit. dot
26-
24 -
^
^
22-
™
201816-
14-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67 1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Asterisk (*} identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 39.
19
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
HI .FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
T
(May) (Feb.
P T
Mfrs.J unfilled lyfors, dur. goods Indus, [bil. dol.
97^|||klog of cap. agnations, mfg.T Q (bil. dol.]
f^Mf
*
Pfe^f
H
(j
^
20*
.-I
15-
3C. PRICES, COSTSf AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices
115110-
55. Wholesale priest, industrial commodite (index: 1957-59=100)
10085-
115110-
58, Wholesale pf«s,mfrd.
goods
1957-59-100]
^
" ||ft^x: —
100-
85801948
49
50
SI
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page i Current data for these series are shown on page 40.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal 20
Reserve Bank of St. Louis
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Chart
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
[.MONEY AND CREDIT
(Nov.) (Oct.
P
T
(May) (Feb.
P T
, Treasury bill rate
116. Corporate bond: yields; (percent]
, treasury DOFIO yieias ipercemj
117. Municipal bond; yields (percent)
52
53
54
55
56
57 58
59
1948 49
50
51
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 40.
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
21
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
bed
0 0H BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Lagging Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(Nov.! (Oct.)
P
T
[July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Long Duration Unemployment
*502. Unemployment catlt persons unemployed 15 weeks and ow {percent-inverted scale)
2 J
JK. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
9080-
Investment Expenditures
7060-
~*6T» Bus. exp«^f,f new^piant and ffBip., u (ann, rate, bll. doCT
0040-
908373-
805. Mach. and equip, sales and bus, constr.
expend, (ami rate, bil. dot.)
80. -I
35C. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
*71, 6ooK value, mfg. and trade inventories (bil. dol
65. Book vain* tf mfiss.' inventories, finished goods [bil. doi.)
1948
49
50
51
53
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Asterisk (') identifies series on 'short list'. Currant data fit these series are shown on page 41
22
65
66
B7
1968
Chart 1A
bed
SEPTEMBER
BASIC DATA
1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESEIMT-Continued
Lagging Indicators-Continued
2!. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
(Nov.) (Oct
P
T
(May) (Feb.
P T
62vijp|r cost per unit of output,
(ndex:
3ZL MONEY AND CREDIT
|
66. Consumer installment debt [bil. do I.
Com. and JBafc: teans outstandingJ weekly
reporting large com. banks (bii. do I
Bank rates on short-term
bus. loatts, Q (percent)
118. Mortgatfj yields, residential {percent!)
;;
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
'\
59
K$f§rt :•
60
!'
61
'
62
I
63
64
/
65
/
66
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and ;£,' page 4. Asterisk H identifies series on 'short fist'. Current data for these series are shown on page 42.
23
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
bed
SEPTEMBER 196ft
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT- Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing
. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
[July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
T
P
F»
T
(Mai) (Feb.)
T
P
1 Comprehensive Retail Prices ^•HH^^^H^^^^H; , ;t'
--,-^y
. ..£ •> ;;;•;.
'•'..' '-*?,
i
i-
...
•
•
.
—
1
' r
;,L,^
1
'
,
.••:",«i(Sf:
•
—— ''-"',• i •','••
•
•
; "' • ' • • ' •
r
:
,.
^--
Jl-_ . . . ^ . _
•
'
-
i
•
V!f^
t':"
'
'
T
""" "iiiTT" " " ' v '
^Pi
- " J •. ;
••'' •'• ;
;
i
'.:•"'.
i
,
i
ft'
i
*
;.^ : '\.f.^
•
!
'
'
' '
/
^X"^
81. Consumer fliies (index: 1&S7- 59=100)
^^
Q
,
;!::,
••;,.'•.•
;:
•
"%
^~^*
^ ^"
•••:'''
/
'^^
-x*Vfc«y»*lw*
__i • i ii
^^^^^"^^^^
^^~^~'
101) ^
!3!i •-
301. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
. U.S. baMif of payments, Q (bil. dol.
b. Official settlements bisis
&
It
hlJ-n
Merdiandse tradefe^mce(bl. ctol.; MCt ^ving avg.-4-temi)
+3,5 -
0-
-0.5-J
1948
40
EI
SA
See lew to
24
e^
3^
S3
54
SS
56
97
58
5©
Burat ^ata 1m these series am stewi ®n pag@ 43.
30
61
62
63
64
11968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing-Continued
EffjFOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
£»
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
fJuiy) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
86. Exports, exc. military aid (H. dot.;
3.02.5-
2.0
~—' 1J
861. Export orders, durables exc. motor vehicles
(bil, dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-tetm)^
862^ Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
"~'(index: iuf-59-100; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
1948
49
5©
51
52
53
§4
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and I' page4. Current data
25
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing-Continued
VTTT
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
F T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
national income ai|lttuct acct, Q
1948
49
BO
51
S3
93
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2," page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 44.
Digitized26
for FRASER
60
61
62
63
64
68
66
67
1968
bed
Chart 1A
bed
SEPTEMBER
BASIC DATA
1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing-Continued
JOE. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.
P
T
80 -i
7060504030-
705«
1. Defense OJeptSjifc., total
433-
1-
06-|
S5-
43-
2-
1J
43«
2-
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
See 'How to Read Charts 1 aiu< 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown or page 44.
60
27
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER
1968
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing and Economic Process
(Nov.) |0ct]
P
T
28
(May) {Feb.)
P T
UulyJ (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
ESQ. Ra
KJfout to capacity, mfg. Q Ipercentl
73-
852. Ratio, tinfHI&d orders to shipments,
* rafrs.1 tfeir. foods imhis.
2,5-
W,*i f
:
i;
:
•
*
150'
H3. Ratio, prodtil&i of business equipment to
;
cofisww goods (index: 1957-59=100)
140
130'
/^
120''
110'
100 H
90-
@4
Si
58
§7
SS
§0
6©
61
62
S3
Chart 1A
b<d
SEPTEM6EB
,»,
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing and Economic Process-Continued
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
(May) (Feb.]
P T
onal savings to disposable personal income, Q
855. Ratio, wnagri. job openings unfilled to
number of persons unemployed
man-hour, ^private nonfarm, Q (index: 1957*59-100)
S
HI- Real avg- noufty earnings, prod workeri, mfg
^ •":>
{1957-59
o59. RME sjjbhiliable avg, weekly
prod, or nonsupv. workers
dollars
Vacancy rate if* total rental housing; Q (percent)
1948
49
50
51
S2
53
54
55
56
57
58
5©
SO
61
©2
63
65
66
B7
1068
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2', page 4. Current data for these series are shown m page 4§.
29
Chart IB
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1961)
bed
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Industrial Production Indexes
(1957-59=100]
121. PECO turopean countries
1948
49
S©
51
§2
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 'V poge4.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
30
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
S3
S4
5§
56
57
58
59
girrent data for these series are sf^wn on page 46.
61
62
63
64
66
67
19i8
Chart IB
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
1948
49
50
51
52
See 'How to Read Charts 1 a sit 2. page 4.
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
64
65
66
67
g
1968
Current data for these series are shown on pap 47.
31
Chart IB
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 196(1
bed
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
240-
Stock Price Indexes
11957-59=100)
1948 49
§0
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data tor these series are shown on page 48.
32
59
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Leading Indicators
Major
Economic Process
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Minor
Economic Process
Marginal Employment Adjustments
formation of Business
Enterprises
Year
and
month
!
f
il
1966
January
February
March
*L Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
*30. Nonagricultural placements,
all industries
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Hours)
(Thous.)
(Per 100 employees)
41.4
B> 41.6
41.5
570
g> 600
589
4.9
4.9
'g> 5.2
222
219
182
1.2
1.2
1.1
109.1
109.6
109.6
18,087 !
17,451
17,266
1.1
1.2
1.3
107.6
106.8
106.2
17,057
16,644
16,577
1.5
1.1
1.1
104.8
103.9
102.7
16 ,"074
16,343
15,764 i
103.3
100.6
101.4
16,233
16,206
16,583
!
i
'
41.5
41.5
41.4
522
513
567
5.0
5.1
5.1
July
August
September
i
I
I
41.2
542
543
509
4.7
5.1
5.0
196
183
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
1
533
530
524
5.0
4.8
4.6
186
194212
41.3
41.2
40.9
]
13. Number of new
*38. Index of net
business formation business incorporations
(Per 100 employees)
Aon!
May
June
41.4
41.3
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for
unemployment
insurance, State
programs1
(Thous.)
R> 179
185
186
230
B> 1.0
1.2
1.2 ,
(1957-59=100)
(Number)
:
l
j
40.3
40.4
534
519
497
4.6
4.3
4.1
203
242
256
1.4
1.5
1.7
102.2
103.2
103.3
16,703
15,987
16, 2U
April
May
June
40,5
40.5
40.4
474
448
487
4.2
4.6
4.5
263
234
225
1.4
1.4
1.4
103:7
105,0
108.1
16,760 ;
17,627 !
17,799
July
August
September
40.5
40.6
40.9
484
486
480
4.4
4.4
4.4
261
215
209
1.4
1.3
1.3
108.4
110.7
110.3
16,300
17,674 i
18,118 i
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
40.7
40.7
40.7
474
476
479
4.5
4.5
4.4
209
201
198
1.2
1.2
1.2
110.6
'112.7
113.8
18,000
18,403
18,168
40.2
40.8
40.7
498
479
494
4.5
4.5
4.1
214
199
188
1.4
1.4
1.2
113.5
114.5
113.6
17,223
18,014
17,974
40.1
40.9
40.9
466
444
504
4.7
4.6
1.1
•1.3
1.1
•113.9
115.1
116.2
18,796 :
r4-5
190
193
190
p4.7
(NA)
214
201
R>119,5
g> 19,530 :
April
May
June
41.0
* ...
*.. .
July
40,9
P40.S
August
September
October
November
December
512
P482
•
pi. 2
(NA)
(NA)
I8,6r>9 !
19,197
(NA)
!
* ...
NOTE* Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by@. Currant high values are indicated byfi>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5 r 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
fi> . Series numhers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) ar icluded in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "af, anticipated: and "NA", not available.
1-
Data exc'
\ Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
33
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Leading Indicators- Continued
Major
Economic Process
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
Minor
Economic Process
New Investment Commitments
Year
and
month
1966
*6. Value of 1
manufacturers
new orders,
durable goods
industries
94. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
(Bil.dol.)
(1957-59=100)
(Bil.dol.)
Revised3
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
(Bil.dol.)
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
(Bil.dol.)
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and
industrial
buildings
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)
7. New private *29. Index of
nonfarm housing new private
housing units auunits startedl
thorized by local2
building permits
(Ann,, rate, thous.) (1957-59-100)
Revised3
Revised3
January
February
March
25,01
25.24
26.08
152
157
158
5.90
6.38
6.23
6*. 34
April
May
June
25.91
25.47
26.0.3
161
156
147
6.44
6.24
6.12
g>6'.69
July
August
September
25.46
25.15
27.08
147
139
146
6.51
6.24
6.90
5'.97
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
26.37
25.17
25.17
139
130
133
6.39
6.06
6,05
23.94
24.15
23.54
126
143
149
April
May
June
24.04
25.30
25.77
July
August
September
October
November
December
4.37
5.25
5.15
62,29
1,403
70.42
67.99
1,381
1,430
5.31
5.31
5,31
68,28
64.00
65.85
1,356
1,232
1,161
105.3
5.50
5.18
5.54
63.54
63.52
64,40
1,061
1,083
1,020
82.1
75.2
65.3
5.<>6
5.45
5.19
5.20
54.76
64.42
60.21
£24
956
913
63.4
63.4
67.1
5.92
6.13
6.16
5.72
5.07
5.02
4.98
49.09
57.84
56.14
1,C79
1,132
1,C67
83.1
78.9
81.9
138
154
164
6.00
6,03
6.40
5.03
5.72
5.09
5.33
58.27
54.72
62 . 30
1,099
1,254
1,214
90.7
91.1
97.9
24.92
25. 88
25.18
149
165
168
6.24
6.57
6.43
5.12
5.38
5.47
5.35
56.72
61.66
60,45
I,;i56
1,381
96.4
99.4
V-15
102.3
25,68
25.85
JO 28.06
171
168
166
6,66
6.42
6.43
5.74
5.31
5.37
5.50
58,42
63.17
64.08
1,478
1,567
1,235
106.9
102.2
116.7
1968
January
February
March
26.84
26,81
28,00
159
156
176
6.50
6,51
6.67
5.51
5.47
5.38
5.38
64.51
61.39
66.61
1,430
1,499
1,479
120.0
121.4
April
May
June
27.37
27.17
26.70
146
172
160
6.20
6.62
7.20
p5.76
5.49
5.45
B> 5.97
47.09
66,96
66. 35
1 , 562
1,345
rl,;i48
5.71
R> 71.65
66.15
July
August
September
26,57
p26.95
187
|O 192
6.96
SD> PV.74
P5.92
rV>08
pi, 486
111.9
106.4
112.1
97.4
84.7
97.2
113.7
108. 5
108.6
r!09.3
p!05.6
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated oy ® . Current high values are indicated by(EC>; for series that mpve counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
=> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
x
High
3
J
value (1,833) was reached in October 1963.
High value (124.6) was reached in February 1964.
3©e "New Features and Changes for This Issue, 1 ' pagei iii.
34
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators— Continued
Major
Economic Process
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Minor
Economic Process
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
26. Production
20. Change in
37. Purchased ma21. Change in
*31. Change in
materials, perbook value of
terials, percent of
business invenbook value of
cent of compamanufacturers'
companies reporttories after valmanufacturing
nies-reporting
inventories of
invenand trade inven- ing higher
uation adjust1
tories
commitments 60
tories, total
ment, all indusmaterials 2and
days or longer®)
supplies
tries
(Ann. rate, brl.dol.) (Ann.rate,bil.dol.) {Percent reporting) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Percent reporting)
Year
and
month
32. Vendor performance, percent of
companies reporting
slower deliveries®
25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
(Percent reporting)
(Bil. dol.)
8
Kevised
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
+ 15 .'4
July
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August.
September
+11,6
"+13.2
49
47
52
+13.0
+18.1
+16.5
51
53
54
+13-3
+15-5
58
57
53
+8.4
+10.9
+12 '.8
+9.6
!
|D>+19*8
»
45
46
+2.2
+3.9
.
+23
m
• +1,3
-4.6
+5 ,'3.
+3.7
+8.9
-0.7
40
42
>: •• •
+2.1
r+10,8
U
67
68
74
85
@> 86
+2.8
+4-7
+4.7
69
70
72
82
75
69
+1.5
73
73
72
70
73
72
+1.30
+0.61
g>+1.82
+2.6
+2.2
+2.8
E^> 75
73
70
70
64
57
40.56
-0.09
72
67
68
48
51
38
-0,63
-0,34
-0,98
-1.6
-0.4
-0.9
67
66
68
39
36
38
-0,17
+0 . 65
+0,79
+1,4
+0,2
-2.2
61
66
61
41
43
44
^0,50
t-0.12
+0.01
+2,6
+0.4
+0.6
•
43
+5.7
+$.3
•
37
+3.2
'
68
+1.2
+2.5
+1.9
" +3.2
B>+5.7
,56;:
55 i
55
"+18. 2
+18.4
g>+19.8
-• +12.9
+8.4
,
'•
Revised3
•
Sv
-
+ 1.45
+1.32
+1.82
-1.55
-a. 01
+ 1.39
O.26
+12.8
+16.9
-45
46
54
+0.1
+0.6
+0.3
62
63
64
50
51
48
+0.88
+0.31
+1.45
+7.2
+3.4
+2-6
55
53
52
-0.5
+1.2
+0.9
64
61
64
50
55
54
-0.09
+0.10
+ 1,16
+17.9
+12.2
r+6.3
••gL;'
55
59
+4.0
+4.7
+1.7
68
64
67
52
52
52
+ 0.48
-0.34
-0.93
p+7.2
' (KA)
59
55
+3.5
(NA)
68
66
56
46
-1.29
pf-0.52
-•
:
• £;
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by ED>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
z
High value (63) was reached in November 1964.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
35
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators— Continued
Major
Economic Profess
PRICES, COSE, AND PROFITS
Minor
Economic Process
Sensitive Commodity
Prices
*23. Index of industrial materials prices®
Year
and
month
(1957-59 * 100)
1966
January
February
March
Stock Prices
*19. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks©
,
(1941-43 - 10)
Profits and Profit Margins
{
'
*16. Corporate profits
after taxes
22. Ratio of profits to
income originating,
corporate, all industries
18, Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations
"17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost index,
manufacturing
(Ann. rate, bil. dol)
(Percent)
(Cents)
(1957-59-100)
120.5
122.9
g> 123.5
93.32
92.69
88.88
56 is
0> 13.' 9
6>9.*8
105.1
105.1
105.1
April .„
May
June
121.5
118.3
118.4
91.60
86.78
86.06
53 io
I3i6
9i3
104.4
105.1
104.6
July
August
September
118.3
111.7
108.9
85.84
80.65
77.81
jl> 5li6
i3is
9.2
fC> 105.2
104.5
104.2
106.3
105.9
105.3
77.13
80.99
50,7
12.9
9io
103.9
103.0
103.1
January
February
March
106. .3
105.2
102.5
84.45
87.36
89.42
47 il
12.1
8.5
101.5
101,0
100.7
April
May
June
100.1
99.6
99.3
90.96
92.59
91.43
4;'".3
12.1
8.2
100.8
100.3
99. 8
98.3
98.1
97.*
93.01
94.49
95. SI
4'K6
li',8
8."i
100.2
99.8
99.2
October
November
December
97. r>
99.1
100.1
95.66
92.66
95.30
50 i 3
12.2
a. ,;
99.4
r99.6
100.5
1968
January
February
March
99. 8
99.5
100.1
95.04
90.75
89.09
49.1
li.*7
H.,b
99.8
r99.7
100.0
98, 3
96.1
95,6
9 r >.67
97.^7
100. f >3
r50.7
rll.7
fl.rt
100.0
99.5
r99.4
94.4
94. 8
96.3
100.30
98.11
Cp> 102.16
.
October
November
December
a. 33
1967
July
August
September..
April
May
June
July
August
September
1
3
r99.5
p97.tf
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by©. Uurrunt :Tigo values are indicated by 0>>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (seriies 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current tow values are indicated by
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back ccvor. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; w p" t preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
2
Average for September 19, 20, and 23,
Average for September 20, 23, and 24,
36
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
MONEY AND CREDIT
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
Flows of Money and Credit
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1966
January
February
March
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply
(Ann. rate,
percent)
33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by fin. inst.
and life insurance companies
(Ann. rate,
bit. do!.)
*113. Net change
in consumer
installment
debt2
112. Change in
business loans
110. Total private borrowing
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
mil.dol.)
+23-81
+22.87
+7.16
+6.46
+7.79
+8.40
+4.92
+7.20
+7.92
+ 5.04
+4/32
^12.48
+6.72
+6.72
+7,80
+1.44
+20.77
+17.76
+15.22
July
August
September
+4.44
+4.08
+4.80
-4.20
+0,72
+3-48
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
-2.52
-1.44
+5.16
-2.16
April
May
June
+10.20
JJ£>414.52
^+13.56
Credit Difficulties
14. Current lia- 39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
bilities of business failures3 and over, total
installment loans
(Mil.dol.)
+14.10
+6.24
+8.76
70,500
111.67
94.59
98.73
+6,37
+5.92
+6.59
+8.50
+9.58
+17.70
73,908
106.93
92.41
111.23
+12.54
+12.68
+11.40
+6.77
+7.22
+5.70
f£>+21.11
+3.28
+0.67
58,004
62.84
159.29
128.77
+4.56
+5.33
+3.85
+5.93
+2.63
+0.14
45,748
+1.44
+9.96
+9.66
+6.86
128.02
116.90
194.09
-0.72
+10.56
+9.72
+9.40
+11.78
+11.47
+3.36
+2.59
+3.17
+7.04
+0.86
+6.83
60/804
+11 . 87
+16.01 .
+18.00
+2.56
+2.32
+3*50
+9.25
+1.63
+8.09
61,864
0.00
0.00
+21. 85
=
-4.80
+13 . 20
+11.04
July
August
September
+13.80
-tll.88
+8.04
+12.24
+7.44
+1.32
x-fl6.84
+22.82
+20.74:
+2.70
+4.13
+3.41
+16.09
-9.19
-2.15
66,044
76.85
91.13
91.29
+7.68
4-7.32
+6.00
+7.32
+5.28
+2.04
+21.02
+22,07
+19 . 87
+3.73
+5.02
+4.60
+5.36
+2.66
+8.39
0>76,936
95.81
85.55
192.56
+5.28
+4.92
+-7. 20
+6.60
+2.64
+4.56
+18.49
+19.20
+17.96
+4.78
+6.79
+6.79
+12.53
^2.28
+4.07
64,636
116.62
81.06
80.46
+4.20
^7. 44
rt-5.16
+5.88
+11.76
Jr+6.48
+19.00
+22.96
r+17.14
+6.50
+7.32
+7.58
+19.64
+2.23
+6.41
p69,072
80.43
93.95
62,32
+8.18
+13.81
P-4,33
December
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
:
tl4.40
P-H3.32
fp>r+14.76
p+5.04
p+18.25
(NA)
(NA)
1.78
1/76
1/76
1.79
l/>5
1,82
108.87
+ 5.28
+13.68
+14.28
November
1.73
118.61
in. 23
April
May
June
October
(Percent)
110.80
93.00
87.20
96.96
54.58
1.90
1 . 72
l!65
1.66
l'.74
lOiisi
1.59
1.57
(NA)
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by E>>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown
on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V estimated; uaT, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
value (24,02) was reached in October 1963.
High value (+8.94) was reached in April 1965.
3
High value (52.86) was reached in August 1963,
2
37
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Major
Economic Process
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
Comprehensive Unemployment
Comprehensive Employment
Job Vacancies
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspapers
511. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
(Thous.)
(1957-59-100)
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
*41.Numberof
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities,
labor force
survey
(Thous.)
*43. Unemployment rate, total
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State1
programs
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
\
1966
January
February
March
38?
401
184
126.65
127.75
128.35
62,'3r
62,t#4
63,253
68,185
68,179
68,192
3.9
3.7
3.8
2,6
?.6
2.3
1.9
1.9
42!>
191
201
April
May
June
431
426
424
189
185
184
128.30
128.54
129.- 80
63,456
63,714
64,141
68,375
68,488
68,772
3.7
3.9
3.B
2.1
1.8
1.8
1.9
July
August
September
42 8
1.%
189
1*9
129.69
130.14
130.08
64,;:73
64, '.3 «
64,'i39
63,943
69,230
69,264
3.8
3.8
3.8
130. f>6
130.96
131.03
64, "79
65,fOO
65 , 272
69,515
69,915
69,828
3.8
3.6
3.7
B> 2.0
40/4
193
194
193
392
370
3^2
189
190
1 8/,
131.56
131.07
131.00
65^24
65,ti46
65.C72
70,104
70,1,37
69,964
3.7
3.7
3.7
;? . ?
1.7
1.7
1.8
IVi
1H1
174
171
130.67
130.95
131.39
65,KL9
65,o77
65,821
70,096
69,822
70,430
3.7
3.9
3.9
i.- . 6
1,9
1.9
1.9
131.'J2
132.22
132.40
65,920
66,136
66,123
70,631
"0,703
70,941
3.<?
;• t ^
37 3
IfoQ
180
180
3.8
4.1
;\6
;:.4
360
3f;2
3*',£.
186
187
190
132.23
133.72
133.23
66,286
66,778
67, :63
71,017
71,166
71,361
4.3
3.8
3.7
;',3
;\3
1.9
1,7
1.7
y>6
184
193
|P>202
132.16
134.38
133.80
67,^58
67,eOO
67,o56
71,164
71,604
71,788
3.5
3.7
3.6
2.3
2.3
1.6
1.7
1.7
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
i 2^
g>43«
4.29
414
? 2
••) '
2.1
2. I
2, 3
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
;
,
*.
3*-l
',.
July
August
September
?.l.
1.9
3f»l
344
:w
,.
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
160
368
382
396
383
18B
187
189
H68
p36'.
rl,85
p!98
134.01
134.68
rl35.46
67,755
67,792
r68, ?;39
r68,,?.Ql
H35.93
B>pl36.48 B>p68,,C09
71,656
71,936
'72,197
B> 72,202
72,196
3.
c
3.';
3.8
3.7
B> 3 --
;.?
t'1 * 6
;> ^ o
;'.2
1.8
1.9
1.8
«'. i
;>!;?
:*,2
*>l:l
2.3
2.3
1.6
1,6
1,7
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by©. Current high values are indicated by|B>; for series that move counter to movements in general Business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "af, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
exclude Puerto Rico vhich is included in figures published by source agency.
Digitized for38
FRASER
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Economic Process
Minor
Economic Process
Comprehensive Income
Comprehensive Production
Year
and
49. Gross national product
in current dollars
*50. Gross national product
in 1958 dollars
*47. Index of industrial production
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(1957-59=100)
*52. Personal
income
53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
month
1966
January
February
March
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
*816. Manufacturing and trade
sales
57. Final sales
(series 49 minus
series 21)
(Mil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*54. Sales of
retail stores
(Mil.dol.)
728. ^
648.6
150.7
152.4
153.8
565.3
570.5
575,5
149.4
151.5
153.5 :
84,679
84,517
86,939
717.5
25,081
25,'n49
25,536
April
May
June
740.4
653^3
153.9
155,4
156.5
578.0
578.9
584.0
154.6
155.3
156.6
85,434
85,365
86,917
725.0
24,949
24,475
26,394
July
August
September
753*J
659^5
157.2
157.8
158,1
587.5
592.2
596.7
157.2
158.7
159.4
86,611
86,939
86,734
740.4
25,362
25,572
25,703
October
November
December
768.2
667 !i
159,4
159.1
159.5
601.2
605.2
607.2
160.6
161.3
161.5
86,983
86,528
87,690
748.4
25,550
25,610
25,368
158.2
156.6
156.4
612.1
614.6
617.6
162. 4
161.4
161.7
87,182
36,133
87,242
763^8
2V'B7
25,470
25,739
156.5
155.6
155.6
618.6
620.6
625.8
1,61.2
778.0
162.2
86,643
87,286
88,244
2,5,918
25,897
26,5/44
1967
-
l
January
February
March
772.2
April
May
June
780.2
July
August
September
795.3
675.6
156.6
158.1
156.8
629,8
634.2
637.0
163*2
164.9
165.2
88,454
88,768
88,323
789.9
26,444
26,422
26,732
October
November
December
811.0
681 ',8
156.9
159.5
162.0
638.0
644,9
652.6
165.0
168.2
170, 2 |
87,196
89,612
92,057
802!f
26,089
26,411
26,470
831 '.2
692.7
161.2
162,0
163.0
654.9
663.0
670.0
170. 2 i
173.8:
174,2
92,544
92,595
94,327
829.1
27,065
27,399
28,120
g> r852*.9
g> r703,4
162.5
r'164.2
rl65.2
672.6
678.2
683.7
176.6;
|j£>. ^165.6
^^ pl64.0
689.2
[R>p694.3
665 '.7
'
669.2
161.2 :
1968
January
February
March
Apri 1
May
June
....
•
July
August
September
174.0)
177.1 j
rl77.8
0>P178.6
93,368
95,310 |E> rB42.i
r 96, 473
@^P98,39Z
27,620
27,993
r 2 8, 296
r29,075
j£>p29,163
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonat'movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
erisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary; V, estimated; "f, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
39
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Procoss
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
PRICES, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
Minor
Economic Process
Backlog of Investment
Commitments
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Year
and
month
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
Revised
1966
55. Index of
wholesale
prices, industrial 1commodities ©
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, manufactured
goods ®
(1957-59 - 100) (1957-59-100)
MONEY AND CREDIT
Bank
Reserves
Money Market Interest late »
93. Free
reserves ©
114. Treasury
bill rate®
116. Corporate bond
yields ©
(Mil. dot.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
115. Treasury 117. Municipal
bond yields® bond yields®
(Percent)
(Percent)
1
January
February
March
66. A3
67,76
69.58
April
May
June..,,
71.12
72.1 4
73.52
July
August
September
74. 83
7*>.44
77.26
October
November
Decerrta
77 . H2
77.73
77.99
1967
January
February
March
77.36
77.02
76.04
April
May
June
75. «*
76.<>2
77.31.
July
August
September
77. a?
77.94
77.94
October
November
December
78. 82
79.13
80.fi8
19*.33
103.5
103.8
104.0
104.4
104.9
105.0
-107
-246
4.60
4.67
4.63
4.93
5.09
5.33
4.43
4.61
4.63
3.52
3.64
3.72
20.56
104.3
104.7
104.9
105.1
105.5
105.6
-268
-352
-352
4.61
4.64
4.54
5.38
5.55
5.67
4.55
4.57
4.63
3.56
3.65
3.77
106.0
106.4
136.4
-362
-390
-368
4.86
4.93
5.36
5.81
4.75
6,04
6.14
4*80
g> 20.77
105.2
105,2
105.2
3.95
4.12
4.12
106.3
106.2
106.2
-431
-222
-165
5.39
5.34
5.01
6.04
6.11
5.98
4.70
20^72
105.3
105.5
105.5
20.42
105.8
1,06.0
106.0
106.4
106.4
106.3
-16
-4
+236
4.76
4.55
4.29
20,25
106.0
106.0
106.0
106.2
106.3
106.6
+ 175
+ 269
+ 297
20.42
106.0
106.3
106.5
106,8
1.06,8
107.1
20.41
106.8
107.1
107.4
107.1
r!07.3
107.6
20.48
1.07.8
108.3
1.08.6
108.1
ri08,7
108.9
p20.66
108.8
108,6
108. 8
109.1
109.1
109.4
-44
fi>
4,79
4.74
3.94
3.36
4.6')
3.%
5.53
5.35
5.55
4.40
4.47
4.45
3.54
3.52
3.55
3.85
3.64
3.48
5.59
5.90
6.06
4.51
4,76
4.86
3.60
4272
+ 298
+268
4.31
4.28
4.45
6.06
6.30
6.33
A. 86
/>,95
4.02
3.99
4.12
+160
4.59
4.76
5.01
6.53
6.87
5.08
4.97
5.14
6.57
6.57
6.80
5.36
6.79
7.00
+270.
4107
6,93
4.99
V.19
g> ''^4
'•.36
3.89
3.96
4.30
4.34
4.43
1968
January
February . .
March
April
May
June
SO. 4 9
80.09
81.75
g> 82.24.
81.90
80.97
July
August
September
79.68
p80.21
rl08.8
108.9
B>P109.2
fi>109.7
109.5
4144
438
-315
»413
-326
-341
r-226
p-185
g> 5.62
5.54
5.38
5.10
g>7.02
6.91
6.54
'i.18
>.16
•5.39
r
5,28
5.40
5.23
•5.09
•5.04
4.29
4.31
4.54
4.34
fk>4.54
4.50
4.33
4.21
October
November
December
NOTfi: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by©. Current high values are indicated by B>; for series that move; counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the £ack cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e",, esti
estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA" not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page III.
40
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Lagging Indicators
Major
Economic Process
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Minor
Economic Process
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Investment Expenditures
Inventories
Year
and
month
*502. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total
(Percent)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
505.|Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
Revised1
1
Kevised
1966
January
February
March
0. 8
0.8.
0.8
April
May
June..
July
August
September
:'
October
November
December
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods,
book value
, 58.00
68.91
68.68
70.97
121.30
122.26
123.36
22.65
22.78
22.94
0.8
0.7
0.6
60! io
70.80
70.65
72.04
124.45
125.95
127.33
23.04
23.33
23.58
0.6
0.6
0.6
61.25
72.95 ^
74.57
74.99
128.43
129.73
130.53
23.82
24.01
24. 2«
0.7
0.6
0.6
62*. 80
75.81
74.72
75.02
132.05
133.58
135.23
24.47
24.83
25. H
0.6
0.6
0.6
6l!65
76.75
76.90
75.53
136.30
136.49
136.82
25.43
25.68
25. 32
0.6
0.6
0.6
61.50
74.67
74.92
76.28
137.08
137.19
136.80
26.22
26.41
26.36
0.6
0.6
0.6
60 '.90
76.64
77.90
78.58
137.11
137.85
137.79
26.43
26.61
26.64
0.6
0.6
0.6
62 '.70
76.79 ';
77.92
79.94
138.27
139.33
140.74
26.63
26.70
26.81
B> 64*. 90
80.77
80.79
80.59
141.34
141.62
141 . 84
26.97
27.09
27.21
62 175
fr>8l.59
80.32
80.86
143.33
144.35
g>rl44.88
P79.88
(NA)
P145.48
(NA)
:.
,
1967
January.
February
March
April .
May
June
.
July
August
September
October
November
December
*
1968
January
February
March
.
April . .*
May
June
July
August
September .
October
November
December
0.6
0.6
0.6
:
0.5 1
0.5
0.5
0.6 i
0> 0 . 5 -j
ra64.90
27.35
27 . 59
27.64
R> 27.79
^ (NA)
ra65.!5
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by[jD>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
[B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "<f, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
41
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Lagging Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Minor
Economic Process
Unit Labor Costs
Year
and
month
1966
January
February
March
MONEY AND CREDIT
Interest Rotes on Business Loans
and Mortgages
Outstanding Debt
68. Labor cost (cur.
dot.) per unit of gross
product (1958 dol.),
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Index of labor
cost per unit of output, manufacturing
66. Consumer installment debt
*72. Commercial and
industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large
commercial banks
*67. Bank rates on
short-term business1
loans, 35 cities (u,
llS. Mortgage yields,
residential @
(Dollars)
(1957-59 = 100)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
0.666
99.3
99.8
99.9
67,920
68,458
69,107
53,255
53,747
54,522
100.7
100,4
101.0
69,638
70,131
70,680
55,118
56,134
57,874
5.55
5.70
(NA)
6.00
5! 82
(NA)
6,32
6.45
6.30
6.51
6.58
6.63
6! 31
(NA)
6.81
6.77
April
May
June
0,676
July
August
September
0,680
100,8
101.8
102.1
71,244
71,846
72,321
59,380
59,014
59,381
October
November
December
. 0,687
102,3
103.1
103.0
72,701
73,145
73,466
59,911
60,042
59,763
0.701
104.8
105.3
105.6
73,746
73,962
74,226
60,875
60,525
61,167
6! 13
6.62
6.46
6.35
April
May
June
0.701
105.4
106.0
106.8
74,439
74,632
74,924
62,407
61,898
63,326
5,95
6.29
6.44
6.51
July
August
September
0.708
106.6
107.0
108.0
75,149
75,493
75,777
64,309
62,944
63,309
5^95
6.53
6.60
6,63
October
November
December
0.715
107.7
107.7
63,592
63,797
64,^45
5^96
107.1
76,088
76,506
76,889
6.65
6.77
6.81
0,721
108.3
109.0
108.9
77,287
77,853
78,419
65,518
65,450
65,789
6!36
6.81
6.78
6.83
|t> - 0 '72i
109.1
109.7
rllO.l
r?
8,96l
7C>,571
67,844
67,391
68,016
6'.84
R> 69,739
p68,753
B> 6 ! ec-
1967
January
February
March
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
rllO,2
j£>pl!2.0
A"), 203
R> 80,885
(NA)
6.94
(NA)
|£> 7.52
7.42
7.35
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are in
dicated byjjt>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
H> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "af, anticipated; and "NA" not available.
1
Prior to 1967, data ar^ based on 19 cities and refer to the last month of the quarter.
42
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing
Major
Economic Process
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
Minor
Economic Process
Comprehensive
Retail Prices
Foreign Trade and Payments
81. Index of consumer pricesi©
89. Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (-) in U.S. balance
of payments
Year
and
month
a. Liquidity
balance basis
(1957-59 = 100)
(Mil. dol.)
b. Official
settlements
basis
.(Mil. dol.)
88. Merchandise
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)
86. Exports, excluding military
aid shipments,
total
861. Manufacturers' new orders
for export, durable
goods except
motor vehicles
and parts
862. Index of
export orders,
nonelectrical
machinery
87. General
imports, total
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(1957-59 = 100)
(Mil. dol.)
1966
January
February
March
111.0
111.6
112.0
April
May
June
112.5
11-2.6
112,9
July
August
September
113. 3
113.8;
114.1
October
November
December
114.5
114.6
114.7
!
;
2,264.4
2,375.9
2,554.2
866
903
237
201
227
1,917.8
2,023.5
2,079.8
+241.3
+333.9
+345.7
2,354.3
2,415,5
2,487.0
764
953
1,010
195
217
217
2,113.0
2,081.6
2,141.3
+692
+277.4
+324.4
+244.4
2,455.4
2,443.6 ;
2,539.6
827
879
1,069
201
199
200
2,178.0
2,119.2
2,295.2
+99
+338.2
+316.6
+184.3
2,588.3
2,502.9
2,408.9
894
776
1,119
240
235
225
2,250.1
2,186.3
2,224.6
- +361.2
+375.5
+349.0
2*616.7
2,604*7
2,548.5
920
855
904
235
196
252
2,255.5
2,229.2
2,199.5
+427.1
+409,5
+350.0
2,653.1
2,546.6
2,577.1
793
1,005
961
215
220
218
2,226.0
2,137.1
2,227.1
+376.1
+423.8
+429/8
2,584.6
2,549.1
2,638.3
907 i
887
924
219
230
231
2,208.5
2,125.3
2,208.5
-409
1
-93
-116
: :
- -301
-333
•
876
+346.6
+352.4
+474.4
-630
1967"
!
:
January
February
March
1H.7
in. s
-505
April
May
June
115.3
115,6
116.0|
-522
-806 :
July
August
September
116, 5 :
116.9
117.1
~8Q2
+247 :
October
November
December
117.5
117.8
118.2
-1,742
-1,082
+195.8
+309.6
+78.4
2,393.9
2,691.4
2,603.4
829
871
993
258
234
255
2,198.1
2,381.8
2,525.0
January
February
March
11.8.6
119.0
119.5
r~6£>0
r~535
+175.7
+171.2
-157.7
2,784.7
2,773.1
2,454,7
909
1,007
964
215
260
252
2,609.0
2,601.9
2,612.4
April
May
June
119.9
120.3
120.9
rp-170
rp+1,459
+248.0
-32.2
80 0
2, 888. 5
2,719.7
2,759,3
917
1,047
r989
241
237
223
2,640,5
2,751.9
2,839.3
July
August
September
121.5
121.9
+138.6
+88.5
2 ? S03.0
2,915.8
p9l6
(NA)
p240
(MA)
2,664.4
2,827,3
115.0
-1,764
;•
!
1968
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal.movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
43
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing-Continued
Major
Economic Process
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Minor
Economic Process
Federal Government Activities
Year
and
month
95. Federal
surplus (+)
or deficit (-),
national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
biLdol.)
951. Federal
receipts,
national income
and product
accounts
952. Federal
expenditures,
national income
and product
accounts
101. National
defense purchases, current dollars
91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Ann- rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann, rate.
bil.dol.)
(Ann, rate,
biLdol.)
(Mil. doL)
(Mil,, doL)
orders, defense
products
industries
92. Military
prime contract
awards to
U.S. business
firms and
institutions
(BiLdol.)
(Mil. dol.)
99, New
Revised
1966
1
January
February
March
+ 2.0
136! 8
134^8
55^3
5,179
5,879
1,639
1,736
1,904
3,34
2.92
3.06
2,952
2,906
2,956
April
May
June;
+ ".3.7
H2.1
138.4
5s!6
6,444
5,447
7,084
2,109
1,620
2,415
3.23
2.90
3.36
3,461
2,978
3,693
July
August
September
~o! 3
145^
145.*8
63.0
4,998
7,215
6,579
1,753
2,251
1,866
3.34
3.14
4.25
3,940
3,165
3,541
October
November
December
-?!B
H7.7
150.5
65.4
6,059
5,989
6,023
1,931
1,723
1,937
3.12
3.09
3.55
3,383
3,225
3,513
-1.1.2
M8.1
1593
7C)!o
6,518
6,595
6,343
2,296
2,140
1,903
3,01
3.32
3*07
3,364
3,930
3,034
April
May
June
-13.3
143.2
161 ! 5
72.1
6,211
7,732
6,891
1,754
2,480
2,290
3.17
4.04
3.93
3,026
4,040
3,566
July
August
September
-12.9
152.2
165.1
72.9
5,928
7,003
7,479
1,633
1,925
2,958
3.60
2.99
3.36
3,<45
3,690
3,720
October
November
December
-12. 2
156. A
168.6
74.6
7,449
6,565
6,331
2,735
2,173
1,346
3.98
3.64
4.36
3,626
3,308
3,479
-«!e>
166! 6
175.1
76.8
7,033
7,615
6,208
2,360
2,865
1,985
3.51
3.86
5.07
2,887
3,445
3,124
rl7l!8
r!8l!9
79! 6
6,765
7,441
p6,748
2,161
2,299
pl,996
4.43
4.01
2.96
3,488
4,203
3,067
7,412
(NA)
2,323
(NA)
3.67
P3.96
3,937
3,173
1967
January
February
March
1968
January
February
March.
April
May
June
July
August
September
5,100
-10.2
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by ®a iierses numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on tfie back cover. The V indicates jeviseci; <! p\ preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
See "Ngw Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
44
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
Table 2A
SEPTEMBER
BASIC DATA
1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing and Economic Process
Major
Economic Process
UNCLASSIFIED INDICATORS
Minor
Economic Process
Unclassified Indicators
850. Ratio, 851. Ratio,
output to
inventories
capacity,
to sales,
manufactur- manufacturing
ing and trade
Year
and
month
(Percent)
(Ratio)
852. Ratio, 853. Ratio,
production of
unfilled
orders to
business
shipments,
equipment to
manufacturers' consumer
durable goods goods
(1957-59*100)
(Ratio)
854. Ratio,
personal saving to disposable personal
income
(Ratio)
Revi sed1
1966
855. Ratio, 858. Output
per man-hour,
nonagricultural job open- total private
ings unfilled nonfarm
to persons
unemployed
(Ratio)
(1957-59=100)
Revised1
856. Real
avg. hourly
earnings,
prod, workers,
mfg.
857. Vacancy
859. Real
spendableavgJ rate in totat
wkly. earnings, rental housing
nonagri. prod, housing ©
or nonsupv.
workers
(Percent)
(1957-59 dol.) 1(1957-59 dol.)
January
February
March
90.5
1.43
1.45:
1.42
3.17
^ 3,20
3.22
117.9
119.1
119.7
0.059
0.130
0.143
0,149
127^3
2.40
2.39
2.39
78.53
78.58
78,61
7^5
April
May
June
96! 8
1.46
1.48
1.46
3.27
••" 3.30
3.34
119.8
121.5
123.2
0.062
0.154
0.145
0.146
127.2
2.39
2.40
2.40
78.53
78.36
78.54
6^8
July
August
September .
9<X 6
1.48
1.49
1.50
3.40
3.37
3.41t
124.8
125.9
126.4
0.064
0.148
0.146
0.153
127.5
2.40
2.40
2. a
78. 44
77.88
78.36
6!s
9o!6
1.52
1.54
1.54
3.42,
3.47
3.50
125.4
125.9
126.1
0.073
0.149
0.152
0.141
128.7
2.41
2.41
2.41
78.43
78.16
78.12
?!6
87 a
1.56
1.58
1.57
3.51
3.50
3.46
126.3
127.7
125.8
0.074
0.136
0.131
0.127
127.8
2.41
2.42
2.43
78.23
77.91
77.89
6.6
85,0
1.58
1.57
1.55
3.53
3.50
124.7
124.7
123.4
0.068
0.123
0.119
0.115
128!9
2.42
2.42
2.43
77,65
77.79
77.91
6^3
3.54
3.40
3.48
122.9
121.5
122.3
0.074
0.114
0.119
0,118
129.5
2.43
2,44
2.43
78.18
78.23
78.51
€U
October
November .
December
1967
January
February
March
]
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
1
84.3
1.55
1.55
1.56
;
84^7
1.59
1.55
1.53
3.54
3.44
3.39
119.6
122.3
120.0
0.078
0.108
0.118
0.119
130.0
2.43
2.44
2.45
78.02
78.42
78.09
5*.6
''
p84.9
1.53
1.53
1.50
3.37
3.36
3,39
121.2
119.6
118.3
0.071
0.129
0.122
0.129
131^9
2.47
2.46
2.4H
77.77
78.79
78.64
s!s
rp84.7
1.54
1.51
1,50
3.41
3.36
.,3.28
117.9
118.0
rl!7.8i
rQ.075
0.141
0.142
0.129
132^4
2.47
2.48
2.48
78,14
78.81
79.25
5.7
pi. 48(NA)
3,20
P3.39
rll7.3
p!17.8
2.48
p2.48
r78.76
p78.83
July
August
September
October
November
December
:3.48
•
rO-,125
pO.132
....
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®, Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order,, Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and " NA", not available.
"New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
Table 28
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
bed
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Major
Economic Process
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDEXES
Minor
Economic Process
Industrial Production Indexes
47. United
States, index
of industrial
production
123. Canada,
index of industrial production
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
121.0ECD,1
European countries, index of
industrial production
126. France,
index of industrial production
125. West Germany, index of
industrial production
127. Italy, index
128. Japan, index cf industrial of industrial proproduction
duction
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59- 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 - 100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59 .,100)
151
152
1U
161
163
163
132
131
134
152
152
155
147
150
152
159
157
160
,352
251
257
188
188
191
June
154
155
156
164
163
163
132
130
130
154 '
153
154
151
151
154
160
159
160
261
265
26?
188
19'194
July
August
September
157
158
158
163
164
166
132
131
130
154
154
155
155
155
156
159
156
155
273
277
279
195
196
201
October
November
December
159
159
160
167
168
167
128
127
129
154
153
154
155
156
156
156
153
lf-2
285
291
299
199
200
204
January
February
March
158
157
156
166
166
166
129
129
129
153
153
154
156
154
156
150
149
150
29-?!
295
304
207
211
^09
April
June
156
1%
156
168
167
168
130
128
129
154
153
154
153
152
156
149
150
148
305
312
317
212
212
211
July
August
September
157
158
157
169
170
170
129
129
128
155
154
156
156
156
159
154
152
155
321
327
336
211
198
211
October
November
December
157
160
162
169
173
174
129
131
134
157
159
164
159
160
161
156
158
338
346
349
;>r>
;MV
;>u>
January
February
March
161
162
163
172
r.172
rl71
133
134
135
160
rl6l
rl64
162
164
167
1 57
159
K/i
347
354
351
r220
P/',1
April
K-?
1 64
16';
rl75
176
pi 79
134
H.35
pi 36
rl64
104
pi 62
367
113
pi 3 3
1<)4
rib?
p3*3
r362
37?
P 373
r?.?.?
?24
p2,r>
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
,NA)
(NA)
Year
and
month
1966
January
February
March
,.
April
May
1967
May
171
1968
May
June
Juty
August
September
r!66
pi 64
PI *
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
46
Table 2B
bed
SEPTEMBER
BASIC DATA
1968
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued
Major
Economic Process
CONSUMER PRICE INDEXES
Minor
Economic Process
Consumer Price Indexes
132. United King- 136. France,
dom, index of
index of consumer
consumer prices ® prices ®
81. United States, 133. Canada,
index of consumer index of consumer
prices ®
prices®
Year
and
month
(1957-59=100)
1966
January
February
March
(1957-59= 100)
(1957-59-100)
111
133
126
127
127 -
138
139 .
138
122
122
122
150
148
149
133
134
134
127
127
127
139
139
139
122
122
122
149
148
150
134
134
134
128
128
129
140
140
140
122
122
123
151
150
151
134135
136
117
117
118
129
129
129
141
141
142 j
123
123
123
153
154
154
137
138
115
116 1
116 ;
119
119'
120 j
130
130
130
142
142
142
124
•124
124
154
153
152
I3B-+*
138
116
117
121
121
129
142
143
143
124
123
123
152
153
156
139
139
144
145
145 ]
123
123
123
159
159
160
Htf
140
140
'
:
July
August
September
113
114
114
%
' 116"
116
117
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
114
115
115
"';
117
117
117
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
113
:
115
115
: 115
117
,
;;
f:
-j
;/
"
g
,:..... 121 .;,
;
133
133
i3a
139 , ,
140
118
118
118
121
119
119
120
123
1 2 3< :
123
132
133
133
147
147
147
125
125
125
161
161
162
140
140
140
124
124
136
136
147
148
148"
125
125
126
162
163
161
141
141
141
149
(NA) |
126
(NA)
162
162
141
.UO
April
May
June
120
120
'121 :
July
August
September
122
122
,
(1957-59=100)
146
147 •
148
124
124
125
112
113
July
August
September
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
120
131
121
113
114
114
115''"''
115
116 |
Apri 1
May
June
/
137. Italy, index
of consumer
prices®
137
137
138
112
112
April
May
June
(1957-59 = 100)
135. West Germany, 138. Japan, index
index of consumer of consumer
prices ®
pri.ces ®
121
122
^
•-: - 124 ;v
125
125
129
:131
:
131
t
.
136 :
136
(NA)
|
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
47
Table 28
BASIC DATA
SEPTEMBER 1968
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued
Major
Economic Process
SHOCK PRICE INDEXES
Minor
Economic Process
Sf§£k Price Indexes
Year
and
month
19. United States,
index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks ®
143. Canada,
index of stock
prices©
142. United Kingdom, index of
stock prices®
146. France, index
of stock prices ©
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59- 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
145. West Germany, 148. Japaiij index
index of stock
of stock prices®
prices®
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
bed
147. Italy, index
of slock prices®
(1957-59 = 100)
1966
January
February
March
189
188
180
192
191
186
173
178
174
127
123
118
177
180
178
223
230
241
147
153
156
April
May
Juno
186
176
174
190
182
182
173
179
181
114
110
110
175
168
1S9
240
24.3
144
143
H3
July
August
September
174
163
158
180
171
162
173
154
152
108
108
102
149
231
150
1-34
230
226
146
147
145
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
156
164
165
158
162
166
150
147
151
101
107
103
191
147
148
224
221
218
149
147
144
171
177
181
175
180
182
157
156
159
99
103
98
148
156
159
223
229
228
142
141
127
April
May
Juno
184
188
185
185
186
186
167
171
172
96
99
98
158
r>5
223
231
l'>4
231
129
132
130
July
August
September
189
192
194
189
194
198
176
177
187
94
99
110
156
175
182
231
209
129
133
139
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
194
188
193
192
188
189
196
203
200
109
106
103
182
192
194
213
236
198
143
139
135
193
184
181
189
177
171
202
208
213
107
104
113
205
209
207
203
208
209
134
130
133
April
May
June
194
198
204
183
185
187
235
246
252
117
111
107
2:6
239
2?.6
2:?o
2;>°
rl36
135
333
194
192
p!98
265
272
p280
103
rpl06
p!08
2"0
p2*^3
p2?7
July
August
September
203
199
p207
236
21r;
23<
2/^
2'»4
D2
r
'/
rp!36
rp!39
pi 38
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Ssries numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
48
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Section TWO
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
charts and tables
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—21 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—17 industries
Profits—?,000 corporations
Stock prices—77 industries
Industrial materials prices—13 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—22 industries
Retail sales—23 types of stores
Net sales—800 companies
New orders^-400 companies
Car/oad/ngs—19 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—78 industries
BASIC DATA AND DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
Chart 2
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 1968
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Leading Indexes
(Nov.) (Oct.]
P
T
(July) (Aug.;
P
T
Uuly) (Apr.)
P T
(May) [Feb.]
P T
..
;
Percent
i i v , (.
__^__™_,,___T__,___.,__™,
^vgJ! work|*el|S|rod. wkrs., lnfg.-2J!1 indus
''
•".-
'*
06. New orders, dur. goods indus.-36 indus
:••.
capital appropri
ii
;i
--s-i-?:','*1. .
i!
!
I
ii
n ndus.| N||}3-Q span-4 1-QiSpan-h)
|
tl
D34. Pf&ms, FNCB of NY, percent
II
!|
1,000 mfgjlcorp. (1-Q span)
ck prices| 5p
stocks- 7^ indui
"'
I;
!;
D5. lnitH|ainis, State ui«i insur.-47 areas [inverted)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67 1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
51
Chart 2
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 1968
bed
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indexes
(Nov.) (Oct.]
P
T
Digitized 52
for FRASER
(Julf) [Aug.)
P
T
(May) [Fen.]
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
i'ercent
D41 Employees on nonagit pp9is-30 Indus. tt*ffl®. span— 1-mo. span-
D47. Industrial protatton-24 Indus. ffr»0. span— 1-mo, span-
Mi. Wtotesate prices, mfrd. goods-22 Indus, ft-ite. span— 1-mo. span
)
054 SlUs of retail stores-2a types of stores ppft. s^an— 1*mo, span
5tH
B2
S3
54
SB
97
98
59
60
61
62
63
64
6§
66
8?
Chart 2
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 1968
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
(July] (Aug.
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.]
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Percent
goods mfrs.|prcompafiies (4-0 span)
D4S. Change in total
groups (4-Q span)
048. Change in total carloadings
{millions of! cars -*4-Q span)
plant and etp^pent expend.--18 indus. (1-Q span)
Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date o( survey
D35.D36 (July 1968)
048 (June 1968)
D61 (August 1968)
1948
49
50
51
53
53
54
55
§6
Actual
Anticipated
2d Q 1967-2tJ Q 1968
3d {Tl966-3d Q 1967
1st Q 196ff-2d Q 1968
4th Q 1967-4th Q 1968
3d Q 1967-3d Q 1968
3d Qi 1968-4th Q1968
5?
uJ,- -' i . !_•. : i 1
61
62
S3
4
65
66
@7
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 :<:'••< 2,' page 4. Currant data for these serigs m® s^own
'53
Table 3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 1968
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
bed
Leading Indexes
DL Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
Year
and
month
3
Revi necl
1966
January
February
March
*. ..
1- month span
9-month span
1-month span
47,6
81,0
35.7
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries) x
Revised
9-month span
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICE (1.7 industries)
1-quarter span
3-quartet span
8
£5.7
83.3
45.2
30.6
50.0
&U7
75.0
75.0
66.7
6-5
76
April
May
June
40.0
61.9
40. *.
/,2,9
41.7
50.0
51. A
72,2
58.3
59*7
62
47
42.9
35.7
July
August
September
21, 4
59 .fj
71.4
U.3
7,1
H.3
50.0
59.7
37.5
55.6
AA.A
41.7
29
47
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
3*U
3 r >.7
21.4
7.1
50.0
A4.A
55.6
36.1
31.9
27.8
59
35
1A.3
69,0
7,1
Hi . 0
11.9
31.9
38.9
55.6
38.9
41.7
45.8
jn
53
9.5
9.5
April
May
June
40. *»
2*. 6
16.7
33.1
31.0
50.0
5S.3
61.1
66.7
47.1
58,8
53
41
76.2
52.8
65,3
38.2
82. U
88.2
76.5
53
55.9
64.7
76.5
73.5
73.5
70.6
a. 2
t-1 . '4
76.0
p76.f>
July
August
September
6A.3
71, A
'»9 . 0
76.2
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
00 . 5
21. A
April
May
June
90 . 0
73. 8
July
August
September
2B.6
71 . A
9.5
bl .9
40.5
81.0
6^.0
45.2
14. 3
1A,3
07.1
6A.3
11.9
38.1
p33.3
44.1
6 A. 3
6.1.8
p31.Q
41.2
*7.A
(NA)
r
-L)
41
4r*
PA!
pf/.
6?. ?.
3
pf.H.H
p5-f'. t )
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the (ith month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA', not available.
^•Baafjd on 36 industries through August 1967 and on 34- industries thereafter,
Soe "Mew Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
3
Based on revised data. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
e
54
bed
Table 3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 1968
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Leading Indexes-Continued
034. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(aboutl,000 corporastocks (77 industries),® x'
(13 industrial materials)
tions)
Year
and
month
1- quarter span
1966
January
*
February
March. .
1-month span
74.0
59
April
May
June. . .
59
July
August
September
< 50
October
November
December
1967
January .
February
March
•
l;
•
54
w:
;
48
April
May
June
46
July
August
September
52
•
•"••••
::
October
November
December
59
9-month span
1
1-month span
9-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, week
including the 12th (47 areas)
1-month span
51.9
43.5
37.7
61.5
76.9
46,2
53.8
38.3
91.5
48.7
14,3
61.5
61.5
44.7
83.0
74,5
44.7
63.6
3.9
23.4
22.1
11.7
6.5
30.8
42.3
46.2
53.8
30.8
15.4
53.2
45.7
57.4
68,1
76.6
78.7
38.3
6.5
3.9
. 9.7
22.1
20.1
61.5
26.9
0.0
7.7
7.7
7.7
17.0
72.3
80.9
80,9
34.0
34.0
25.3
88.3
59.7
47.4
58.4
66.2
19.2
30.8
57,7
0.0
0,0
0.0
36.2
46.8
27.7
23.4
17.0
46.8
90.9
92.2
61,0
85.7
90.3
97.4
46.2
53.8
23.1
0.0
15.4
26,9
55.3
17.0
46.8
27.7
8.5
8.5
76.0
74.0
51.3
93.4
92.1
86.2
23.1
61.5
69.2
30.8
23.1
23.1
55.3
54-3
55.3
31.9
44.7
29.8
81.6
77.6
57.2
68.4
65.8
71.1
30.8
53.8
19.2
23.1
30.8
46.2
34.0
72.3
60.6
78.7
78.7
66,0
32.2
7.9
52.6
46.1
50.0
46.2
46.2
61.5
38.5
30.8
30,8
38.3
74.5
46.8
80.9
70.2
78.7
. 61.8
63.2 :
71.1
46.2
46.2
53.8
30.8
46.2
^6.2
25.5
80.9
25.5
f
46.2
53.8
53.8
63.8
51.1
53.2
71 4
r
v
:
1968
January
February.
March
55
April
May
June
45
July
August
September
:
".-•
:
....
:
9-month span
64.5
10.5
21.1
94.7
83.6
:
76.3
80.3
50.0
48.7
17.8
46.2
65.4
3
57. 7
8
6l.5
c
-7,4
51.1
61,7
38.3
57.4
40.4
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no
adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 4 identifies the. components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by @.
1
Based on 77 components through June 1967 and on 76 components thereafter.
Average for September 19, 20, and 23.
3
55
Table 3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 1968
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident Indexes
Year
and
month
1966
041, Number of employees on
nonagricultural payrolls
(30 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
Revi sed*
Revi sed1
D47, Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
i
1-month span
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries) ©
6-month span
1-month span
6-month span
D5i Sales of retail stores
(23 ::ypes of stores)
1-month span
9-month span
January
February
March...
83.3
86.7
93*3
93.3
93.3
85. C
70. a
9 r >.8
70.8
91.7
91.7
79.2
79.5
75.0
72.7
88.6
95.5
93.2
76.1
6^.2
60.9
82.6
84.8
78.3
April
May
June
85. D
76.7
91.7
80.0
85.0
73.3
72.9
62.5
75.0
7-5.0
79,2
66.7
70.5
86.4
75.0
95.5
95.5
86,4
43.5
30.4
95.7
78.3
82.6
78.3
July
August
September
56.7
76.7
45.0
73.3
68.3
70.0
50.0
75.0
43.8
75.0
66.7
66.7
72.7
54.5
47.7
72.7
72.7
63.6
47.8
4''. 8
60.9
76.1
65.2
82.6
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
73.3
65.0
76.7
76.7
70.0
56.0
72.9
56.2
50.0
66.7
45.8
33.3
63.6
63.6
54.5
63.6
72.7
72.7
43.5
69.6
4:i.3
87.0
78.3
82.6
70.0
48. 3
43.3
41.7
25.0
25.0
39.6
41.7
29.2
25.0
77.3
72.7
56. B
63.6
68.2
65.9
87.0
39.1
43.5
69.6
91.3
95.7
43.3
25.0
56.2
33.3
43.8
47.9
47.7
54.5
47.7
63.6
63.6
63.6
60.9
34.8
82.6
87.0
91,3
56.5
r
<2.7
81.8
81.8
43.5
60.9
76.1
82.6
78.3
82.6
81.8
90.9
95,5
37.0
67.4
47.8
95.7
95.7
73.9
41.7
36.7
April ,
May
June.,,
40.0
60.0
35.0
43.3
36.7
July.,
August
September
46.7
60.0
46,7
48.3
68,3
78.3
58.3
66.7
41.7
58.3
66.7
75.0
63.6
r63.6
75.0
October
November
December
78, 3
H6.7
73.3
83.3
88.3
56.2
83.3
83.3
75.0
77.1
83.3
72.7
77.3
90.9
January
February
March
63.3
71,7
f
)8.3
91.7
80.0
80.0
37.5
70.8
75-0
77.1
7-7.2
r7D.B
90.9
84.1
68.2
90.9
100.0
P0.9
73-9
5X0
87.0
82.6
r91.3
r91.3
April
May
June
56.7
70 . 0
7'>.0
81 . 7
p80 . 0
41.7
70.8
r75.0
87.5
p66.7
72.7
63.6
61.4
r75.0
p84.)
17.4
V3.S
r6X2
p82,6
38.3
88,3
-
1968
July
August
September
51.7
p76.7
r58.3
p41.7
r68.2
P70.5
r8?.6
P39.1
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising andarecentered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-mcnth indexes are placed on the
4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table 4
identifies the components for the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by @.
"New FeatureB and Changes for This Issue," page iii,
Digitized for56
FRASER
bed
Table 3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 1968
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
D35, Net sales, manufactures 036. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies) ®
(800 companies)©
Year
and
month
4-quarter span
Actual
1966
January
*. . . .
February
March
D48. Freight carloadings(19 manufactured
commodity groups) @
D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (18 industries)
4- quarter span
1-quarter span
4- quarter span
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Change in
total (000)
*89
57.9
84.2
+21
*82
*33
52!6'
7B!9
*+i
'si
*68
*82
42!!
78.9
-51
*72
*si
*67
*ao
3l!6
52^6
1S8
'70
*82
"65
*7#
10.6
78.'9
-131
April
May
June
'u
*£.
70
*78
(NA)
73.7
-91
July
August
September
*7S
B2
*76
i30
73.7
-21
October
November
December
'82
*86
*76
"si
63*2
+26
'86
78
73!?
"si
80
*87
*9l
*85
'si
'SB
July
August
September
72
October
November
December
April
May
June
1967
January
February
March
1968
January
February
March
•
Actual
Anticipated
83.3
62.5
83.3
71*9
55.6
37,5
75.0
65.6
55.6
50.0
30.6
41.7
33.3
U.A
61.1
50.0
66.7
63.9
33. 9
55*6
r+33
April
May
June
!
July
August
September
1
i
!
r69.4
October
November
December
I
i
|
P55.6
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of tne 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61. The Y indicates revised; "p"r preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.
57
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 19)68
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data and Direction of Change
1968
Diffusion index components
February
January
June
May
April
March
Augustp
July
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
I (Average weeklv hours)
Ail manufacturing industries • • • • • * • « • »
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
.
+
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
4
. 4-
4.0 2 +
40 8
40 7
40 1 +
40 9 c
40.9
(H)
(90)
(21)
(12)
(90)
(74)
r40.2 438.6 4
r39.6 +
40.8 4
41.5 •f
r41.5
r42.2
r41.2
41.0
r41.9
r41.8 o
r41.4 +
41.9
40.5
40.9
41.7 o
41.8 4
41 .5
40.9 +
40.1 4
40.0 441.7 4
42.3
40.4 +
41.5
40.3
41.2
41.8
42.0
41,7
4
41.8
r40.1
r41.8
r40.6
39.2
4
r42.2
40.3
r41.9 4
r40.8 o
39.7
42.1
40.2
42.4
40.8
'19.5
41.0
39.5
41.1
39.6
38.5
+
41.9
40.2
42.9
40.5
39.7
4_r.
r40.S
37.5
39.9
35.1
42.6
4
40.8
r40.1
41.6 o
r36.5
42.8
40.7
37.9
41.6
36.2
42.7
40.4
34.1
40.6
35.0
42.0
+
40.7
38.0
41.2
36.3
43 0
4
r38.2 o
41.9
42.3
41.6
r38.7 Q
38.2
37.8
41.4
42.7
40.3
38.1
•f
38.1
41.6
42.5
41.7
38.8
4-
41.6
42.2 +
41.4
37.8
41.7
42,9
41.2
3.78
+
4
4
4
+
+
4
4
-f
4
+
4
38.7
4
4
4
+
4
4
4
4
•f
4
4
4
4
4-
T.
O
4
-»•
-t-
O
4O
o
40.9
40.8
(38)
(33)
HI. 6
r40.7 o
r41.1
42.0 442.1
41.9
r41.2 4_
r40.7
r40.9 ^
42 , 1 _
r41.9 „
r41.7
41.4
40.6
40.6
41.8
41.4
41.6
r42 . 0
40.6 _
42. ') o
r40.6 0
39.7
r41.9
r40.3
42.5
40.6
r39.3
42.1
40.5
42.1
40.6
39.3
41.1
r38.S _
41.1 4
36.4
43.0 -i-
r40.8
t-38.0
r4l . 4
r36.1
r43 1
38.2 4
41.7 o
T42.1 4
41 . 7 4
38.7
r38.^
r41 . 7
r42.8
r41 . 8
rl8.2
4
4
O
O
41.1
38.6
41.0
36.0
43 0
+
4
_
4
38.5
41.6
42.2
41.4
37.8
4
?6,952
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
:26,8l4 +
-26,837
(41)
Primary metals
Blast furnaces, steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals.
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums.
Hardware, structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
_
4,013
2,322
+
+
(4-4)
(62)
4,315
2,560
3,778
2,030
4
_
4
4
3,783
2,223
4
2,390
213
-\
-\-
O
4
538
208
4
2,382
219
-}
297
595
204
4
4
631
272
4
4"l
I
4
4
r 3 , 85^
1,791
_
2,224
(NA)
2,75^
+
...
4
•+•
263
+*\
4>
3,95 £ >
i,921
356
439
60°
22Q
666
374
(NA)
-*\
3
(NA)
4
726
233
(NA)
(NA)
.|.
4
4
_j_
4
313
303
3,510
(NA)
4
4
4
(56)
(59)
-I-
3,830
3,779
41
4
4
4-
4
r26,573
4
3,648
^
4
?
3,621
1 , 724
4
4
3,524
J
4
(63)
4,067
2,383
4
4
4-
J\
4
2,297
•t
+
Machinery, except electrical
3,807
Steam engines and turbines*.
„ . . . .4\
303
f)
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
4
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
678
Metalwosrking machinery*
167
Miscellaneous equipment*
4
Machine shops.
, . .4
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
4
332
Office atfid store machines*
Service industry machinery*
(57)
(41)
4
-26,70]
-27 , 172
4
2,258
2,313
c-27,373
r28,005
4
Q
^-
. - ... • * .
4
336
319
_j.
1?C(
A*31
'
(NA)
4
4
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers; (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (•) - falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24,
1
Data are seasonally adjusted "by source agenoy.
La at two months of data for series components are not comparable with earlier data. See "New Features and Changes for
This Issue/' page iii.
3
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
58
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Table 4
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change—Continued
1968
Diffusion index components
January
February
March
May
April
June
July
August
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES -Continued
(Millions of dollars)
Electrical machinery
>
•.,...
-}
Electrical transmission distr. equipment*
4
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
_
Radio and TV
„
Communication equipmentt . .
Electronic components. ....'„
4,
Other electrical machinery* •
3,335
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraftf
Aircraft partst
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment..
6,562
»
3,541
758 ^
J
665
-i
j
741
4
_
+
899 -
4
4*
Sf
•>
661
+\
664 4/
-\
4/
ff
i
NA
NA
:
4
4,
4
4^
J
3,581
3,476
4
(NA)
710
/ rty
684
4-
/>r. s
(NA)
850
946
4
711!
833
7,186
NA
NA
6,247
r6,397
-
4
4
4.
8,108
6 402
NA
NA
3,278
— ./
746
4
_
S42 .
..
4"
NA
NA
4
7 , 199
4
+
NA
NA
NA
NA
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
0
4
+
4
4
4
4
4
p7,212
NA
NA
4
4
4
(NA)
4
4
4
Instruments total
Lumber total
Furniture total
Stone clay and glass total
Other durable goods, total
3i 27 8
3,447
4
4
4-
4
0
4
4
4
4,
4
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS
(1941-43 -10)
95.04
Index of 500 stock prices
(64)
Coal, bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Text! le products
Paper
Publishing
(10)
4
95.67 4,
:
(95)
100.30
100.53
(80)
98.11
(18)
(49)
4-
4
+
+
4
4.
4
4
4-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4*
4
4
+
4
4
4
+
+
+
4
4
44,
4*
4"
4
4
4-
4
4
4
4-
4-
_
„
4
4-
4
_
-
4-
4
_
4
_
_
44
4
4
4.
+
4
4
+
4
4
4-
4
4
' '"
4
_
_
_
_
_
-
-
+
_
_
-
4
4
4.
+
4
4,
•4
4,
44
+
....
4
+
4
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobi les
Radio and television broadcasters
97.87
(84)
4
4
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Telephone companies
Electric companies ...
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores compositeLife insurance
89.09
(21)
90,75
4
, . . . 4-.
4.'
44,
4+
4,
4
4
+
T
4-
4
4
4
4
44
4
4-
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) - rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers areheld confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 99.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Last two months of data for series components are not comparable with earlier data. See "New Features and Changes for
This Issue," page iii.
3
Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
x
59
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 1968
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1968
Diffusion index components
January
March
February
May
April
August
July
June
September
x
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES2
Industrial materials price
index (1957-59-100)
_
99.8
-
99.5
4
100.1 „
98.3
~
96.1
—
95.6
_
94.4
4
94*8
4-
96,3
(Dollars)
(46)
Percent rising of 13 components
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(Ib.)
Zinc(lb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average. ....
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib,)
,.
Hides (Ib.i
Rosin (lOOIb.)
!
Rubber (Ib.)
1
Tallow (Ib.)
i
4
•i
4
4
4
4
.494
.060
29.840
1.496
.139
.129
.264
.198
1.563
.164
10.839
.171
.045
(46)
4
44
4
4
4
.514
.061
30.087
1.469
.139
.127
.254
.199
1.591
.154
10.7^6
.167
.042
+
+
4
4
4+
+
(54)
.520
.062 4
26.136
1.500
.139 4.125 +
.249
.198 41.640
.159
10.743
.174 4
.046 4
(46)
.421 .063
25.471
1.462
.140 +
.125 4
(54)
.388 +
.056 0
24.802
1.428
.141 4
.126 4-
,244
,198
1.619
.157
10.711
.174
.047
.241
.202 +
1.631 0
.151
10.775
.186 4
.047 0
+
+
+
4+
(50)
.396 4
.056
22.562
1.419
.141 0
.131 4
.240 4
.204 0
1.632
.139
10.764" 4.208 4
.047
(46)
.401
.054
21.202
1.143.
.14:.
.139
.298
,20^
1.573
.137
in. 894
.208
.044
4
4
4
4
4
(65)
.393
.052
20.548
1.415
.141
.145
.310
.202
1,576
.144
10.971
.212
.046
4
201
4
O
4
4
(58)
444-
+
444>
0
,421
,051
22,358
1,476
.141
.142
.311
.202
1,602
.160
10.971
.213
.044
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR ^EMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS3
(Thousands)
_
Avg. weekly initial claims ...
4
199
+
(81)
(26)
Percent rising of 47 components
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (20)
Newark (11)
N«wYork(l)
Paterson(22)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23).
Kansas City (19).
Milwaukee (18)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8).
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12X
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (16)
214
188
190
(26)
44
4
+
4
"~
(6i)
193
4
4-
4
4-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
i
4-
4
4
44,
i
4-
4-
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
4-
4
4
4-
4+
4-
4
+
4-
4
4
44
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
4.
4
+
4
+
4*
4-
4
4
i
4
+
4
-f
4
-f
4
+
. >
4
+
44
44-
4
4
4
4
+
4
4-
4
(40)
(57)
4-
4-
t.
21 4
4
4
4
. 1
,. !
190
(53)
(51)
+
4-
+
4
4-
+
4
4
+
H-
_|L.
...
4.
t..
1.1.
* **
***
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directioris of change are shovm akHig with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) =« falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numhers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p ^ preliminary, r - revised.
1
Average for September 19, 20, and 23.
2
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. The industrial materials priee :lridex is not seasonally adjusted. Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
3
Tha signs are reversed because this series Usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(-) == rising, (o) = unchanged, and (+) = falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before
the direction of change is determined. Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month. Directions of change are
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its size rank.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
60
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1968
Diffusion index components
January
February
April
March
Juner
May
July
August P
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS1
(Thousands o.f employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls
' o
(63)
Percent rising of 30 components .,....»... ^
-fI4
+
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products .
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
0
_
,I 4
. n
+
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade
Finance, insurance, real estate . ,
Servke and miscellaneous
»
Federal government
...
State and local government
67,058 •f
4-
4
4,
+
67,600
r!90 4,_
'rl90 o
191
528
r531 i
,- 2*527 +
385
r385 0
r385 _0
463
479
r511
1,038
rl,042 „ r 1,040 _
1,062
rl,056 4
rl,062
1/346
rl;,343 +— rl,344 4_
rl,319
rl , 316
1,311
r 1,4.20 + rl,423 4_
1,429
278
r279
r279 0
340
r342
r339 +
rl,178 +
rl,l8l
1,181
74
r73 +
74 0
r870
' r86l +
867 i
rl, 233 4 rl,240 ;• 4 1,243
r535
r534 4534
662
r662 O
r66o 4
607
r606 4
r605 4
117
rl!7
rll?
422
r415
r422
108
107 4_
r306
r608 4_
r604
609
3,330
r3,107 4- r3,388
r4,317 + r4, 342 „ 4,332
r3,586 4 r3,6l9 4 3,632
rlO 232 4 rlO , 301 4 10,367
r3 , 291 i 4- r3 , 304 4 3,311
rlO , 331 4 r 10, 40 5 4 10,415
2,718
2,721 i O r2,721
9,257 4- r9,300 4 9,335
Q
Q
4-
4
4
4,
-f
4
¥
,
+
67,656 !
4
(58)
(72)
Q
-f
+
4w.
4
4
4*
_
_
_
_
«.
4
4
+
44
^j
+
-J_
+
-f
4
0
4
0
4O
4-
67,755
(57)
4
192 4,
520 ~.
387
517
1,054
1,059
1,332
1,310
1,425
275
335
1,191
68;
4
—
0
4
_
193
516
389
514
4^
68,039
4
4
™4
198
514
392
517
1,042
1,070
1,334
1,305
1,438
4-
4
4
4+
339
1,204
73
877
1,265
542
664
609
118
435
312
632
3,174
4,336
3,679
10 , 407
3,335
10,467
2,795
9,437
+
rl64.2
4-
165.2
4
0
4-
4
4.
4,331
3,641
—
:
44
4*
4-
4
4
O
44O
44
4
4Q
4
Q
4
—
4
4
4
0
4 :
275
-68,201
4
(52)
(75)
1,331
1,312
1,419
275
338
1,185 •
73 J
871
1,256
538
665
603
118
427
312
631
3,245
4,281
3,655
10 , 394
3,334
10,425
2,721
9,413
311
632
3,313
2,717
9,371
4
1,054
1,060
868 4.
1,251 4.
536 +
663 4
602 4117 4.
426 4
10,368
3,323
10,402
67,792
(70)
+
r203
r519
r387
r5l6
rl,047
rl,069
rl,323
rl,304
r 1,483
r273
r344
rl,!88
r73
r877
rl,248
r542
665
608
119
P432
r303
r637
r3,l82
r4,339
r3,676
r 10, 44 3
r3,352
rlO,487
r2,788
r9,515
4
rl65,6
+
+
_
_
4
_
_
4
_
4
0
0
O
4
4,
4
4
4
4
4
4
-
68,409
(77)
0
4
4
4
_
4
4
4
_
4
_
4
4
44.
4
0
+
4
4
4
4
+
4
4
4
4
203
521
388
517
1,032
1,072
1,331
1,321
1,440
278
343
1,180
76
876
1,249
544
669
632
139
438
305
635
3,186
4,366
3,680
10,4.91
3,381
10,541
2,791
9,563
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1957-59-100)
All industrial production.
161.2
e
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals,
Primary metal products.
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery ....»
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products. .
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products . . . • ,
.
Furniture and miscellaneous.,,
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
4.
(38)
Percent rising of 24 components
4-
-
4-
180.7
186 9
175.6
186.7
. !
140*8
118 1 •
+
4.
i
4,
4^
171,3
158,9.
4
(71)
1^6.3
163.9
4-
162.0
4-
4
4
+
139.3
165.7
180.6
186 6
175.1
184.7
137.3
119.3
173.0
160.7
4>
4
_
44
4
4*
163.0
162.5
(75)
(42)
140.2
166.6
4
180.2
187 3
177.6
183.8
_
131.0
125.0
+
173,7
159,9
4.
_
143.3
161.4
176.9
182.8
175.3
181.4
146.1
123.9
174.1
158.8
(71)
4
4
_
+
4
4
4
4
r!48. 5
rl65.0
:
4
176.6
184,2
r!80.4
181.2
4
4
4
+
r!46.4
122.7
178.9
160.6
4-
—
:
•
+
148.9
166.1
4
177.7
185.4
182.6
181.3
4
145.0
122.5
__
177,7
160.9
164.0
(42)
(58)
(75)
4
4
4
_
4
_
-
r!50.4
166.3
_
178.6
185.9
183.0
181.2
4
143.1
p!23.5
175 . 2
160.8
—
+
_
130
164
180
188
183
180
134
142
(NA)
_
0
175
161
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) - rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) - falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data
2
are seasonally adjusted "by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions
of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded.
61
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
SEPTEMBER 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1968
Diffusion index components
January
February
April
March
May
June
July
Augost
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1-Continued
(1957-59=100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
\
_
i„
i
_
'
Leather and products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
*....
_
149.9
148.5 +
113.7 +
146.3 +
148.9 +
114.6 +
147.2 +
r!49.6 4-_
rllS.O
r!49.6 -f.
p!50.4
pi 17.1
rH5.3
P150.7
(NA)
(NA)
155.9
143.3
+
157.1
145.9
159.2 +
146.8 _
159.5 •f
145.8 +
rl6l.l
149.8
+
.
p!6l.8
r!49.6
p!62.0
r!49 * 4
211.8
134 8
206 7
+
+
21£).0 +
136 1 +
21*i . 7
215.2 +
137 3 +
209.4 +
r2l6.6
r!39 9
214.3
+
r2l6.8
r!40 . 7
p215,8
134.5 +
122.9
135.3
112.1
Hr
134.0
120.0
+
+
-
p!45
(NA)
(NA)'
•¥
+
-t-f
+
213.8
135 7
212.3
+
+
+
i
Minerals:
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
148.8 +
146.4 4
109.7 +
4
—
•*•
+
Petroleum products
Foods beverages and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
147.6 +
145.2 +
110.4
133.5
114.4
+
133.2
132.1
113.4
123.6
+
116.8
124.5
-f
126.0 _
126.0
124.4
124.8
+
100.0 +
135.3 +
102.8
145.0
+
-
108.7 +
141.2 -
139.9
137,1
-
+
+
+
-f-
r!34.3
p!22.8
r!26.6
+
r!26.7
128.2
131.4
135.0
-
+
120.4
+
+
r203,8
p217.5
p!39*0
(NA)
p!55 i
(NA)
p!50
•f
p204
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
•*•
p!33
(NA)
(NA) '
pi 34* 5
(NA)
+
r!26.6
r!29,7
+
_
pl37,5
109.4 4
139.7
109.5 i
(68)
(70)
p!22
P130
p!38
(NA)
(NA)
•4+
+
rl30.5
r!36.9
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2
(1957-59=100)
All manufacturing industries
+
108.1
+
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
1+
'+
!+
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
i+
f+
(68)
109.1 o
109.1 +
(61)
(64)
(73)
120.5
104.2
108.7
104.8
123.6
107.5 4
115.7 o
117.2 +
122.3
137.6
115.7
+
117.3
•f
121.7
107.9
115.8
117.6
114.2 +
102.9
104.2 +
111 8 Q
114.3 o
102.7 o
104.5
111.8
114.3
132.7
?10/V.2
111.5
•f4-
114.6 -f
104.7 -f.
103.8 +
89 9 "f
110.1 -)-
llf>.9
105 . 2
103.9
4-
90.4
4-
110.7
+
104.9
111.6 +
103.3 +
106.9 +
r!05.7
113.9 +
103.6 +
107.3 +
105.4
115.8 *»103.8 •f
107.4 •t105.0
117.0 +
104.0 _
107.8 +
104.9
117.2
103.9
108.3
104.8
125.1
106.2
114.7
115.4
+
+
+
+
r!31 . 1 •+
106.4 +
115.3 o
116.0 +
133.2
106.8 +
115.3 +
116.5 +
131.0
107.1
115.5 o
116.8 +
124.1
106.7 +
115.5 +
117.0 -f
>+
!+
i+
i -f
112.0 +
102.7 o
104.3 o
111.0 +
112.3 +
102,7
104.3 o
111.3 -J-
112.7 +
102,6 +
104.3 Q
111.5 "f
113.0 •f
103.0
104.3
111.8 o
+
112 4 +
105.2
102.3 +
113 3
105 0 o
102.8 +
112.8
105 . 2
103 . 0
+-
89,3
4.
+
108.3 +
108.8 +
112.9
105.0
103.1
89 3
109.1
-f
105.2
105.7
105.2
_
98.2
98.8
99.5
+
+
+
+
+
89.3
-f
+
+
o
116.5 +
89.6
98.1
99.5
99.5
116.7
+
+
109.3 •f
113 6
104.9
103.5
89 7
109.4
Q
105.2 4.
105.5
104.7
98.7
98.5
-{-
Q
+
+
98.6
99.5
99.7
+
117.9
+
0
H-
o
4.
98.8
100.3 +
99*7 +
118.3 +
-\
+
+
o
119,2 +
134.1 •t138.4 4134.8 o
+
+
+
+
•+
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber texti le products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products. ,
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
108.9 +
108.6
103.0
106.0
105.5
4-
+
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
r!08 . 7 +
(84)
(91)
-f
+
-f
+
100.5
+
99.8
•f
118.8
4
103.1
99,9
•f
118.7
-f
+
!
1U.6
102.9
104*4
111,6
-f
^
114.9
105.3
104.1
+
90.7
110,9
*7 i
104,9
Q
98.1
102,8
100.7
119. 5
, 101,0 :
1
0
100*6
119.5
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) - unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r - revised.
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
62
;
98.2
Table-
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SEPTEMBER 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change—Continued
1968
Diffusion index components
January
March
February
April
May
June r
27,993 +
28,296 + r 29, 075' + 29,163
July
August P
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Millions of dollars)
All retail sales
„.
•f
27,065 +
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
*. +
+
+
*• . ,
+
5,743
2,173
2,388
:
+
"
4-
•f
27,620 +
+
+
+
+
2,206
2,480
237 -f*
534 +
(56)
(17)
(87)
5,655
_
241
526
28,120
(50)
(74)
-f
Grocery stores
*
_
Other food stores
+
Eating and drinking places
-tDepartment stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . . +
Variety stores
+
Other general merchandise stores
+
Men's and boys' wear stores
+
Women's apparel , accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
+
Shoe stores
^:'
-fHousehold appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
*
Hardware stores*
•• +
Farm equipment dealers
;
Passenger car and other automotive dealers* •• • • • • +
4,
Tire battery accessory dealers.
+
27,399
5,744: +
5,814 +
5,906 o
2,230
2,570 _
256 565
2,214 +
2,508
254
530 +
2,227 0
2,470 +
235 +
565 +
5,905 +
+
2,228 +
2,553 +
259 577
+
+
337
603 +
+
255
877
+
326 +
611 +
•+•
252 +
865
453 +
836
255 +
-f
+
584, +
324 +
590 +
354
631
330 +
591 +
261 i +
271 -f
-$.
840' +
277
866
260
859
469
906
261
472
929
274
456
902
267
338
+
-f
7$Q
469 o
819 ~f265
4, 549
343
•f
2,095
954
633
-t-
4,736
332
2,116
936
625
:
-F
+
+
+
5,005
333
•f
455 +
827 +
267 +
+
5*193 +
336 4.
2,145
+
2,150 4-
+
971 +
648 +
H-
4*
+
+
+
+
•f
:
(65)
4,934
345
4,723
352
+
2,174
2,152
948
647
944
620
. .,• . ,**:
i
. v. |:**•
+
... i
..«| -
-
; : ;.
.,.
4- \
•f
-t-
983
639
-t*
-f*
-
* ». +
+
+
... -
(39) !
(83)
p5,971
(NA)
p2,268 +
p2,664
p253 +
P576 +
(HA)
+
p349
p647 +
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
p266
p842
p478 +
p858
p274
(NA)
(NA)
p5 , 422 +
p343
(NA)
(NA)
p2,181
p986
P66l
4.
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-
» .«
+
...
...
!
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+)= rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, n = revised.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
63
A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961
Duration in months
Business cycle reference dates
Trough
Cycle
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October 1860
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
March 1882.
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
(x)
30
22
46
(x)
40
54
13
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
36
99
50
52
101
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
JU|y 1921
May 1907
January 1910
January 1913
Aueust 1918
January 1920
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
13
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
23
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926
August 1929
May 1937 . ...
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May 1960
13
9
9
35
25
(X)
^
58
44
34
41
34
93
93
33
'56
4 cycles 1945-1961.. .
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961 ..
8 cycles, 1919-1961...
3 cycles, 1945-1961...
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
18
8
32
13
65
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895 ...
June 1899
September 1902 . .
. .
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961 . .
10 cycles, 1919-1961 , .
48
34
(X)
149
54
3
46
2
4
46
48
42
5
6
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean War), the postwar contractions,and
the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
X
25
2
cycles, 1857-1960.
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
3
4 cycles,
4
1945-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
5
7
6
cycles, 1920-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
65
B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in™
Selected series
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
J954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
30.
38
6
10.
29.
Dec.
Nonagricultural placements, all industries. . . Jan.
Jan.
Index of net business formation
Jan.
New orders durable goods industries
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . . Mar.
New building permits, private housing units. . Dec.
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
*
23 Industrial materials prices . . »
19. S^ock prices 1500 common stocks
16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
113. Change in consumer installment debt
Dee.
Dec.
Oct.
lotQ
'60
'61
'61
'61
'61
'60
May
Mar.Apr.
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'60
'60
'60
'61
Apr.
Apr.
Dec.
IstQ
'58 Nov.
'58 Feb.
'57 Sep.
'58 4thQ
Apr.
May
Mar.
Sep.
Mar.
Sep.
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 Jui/ ' a4 Feb. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NS3) May ' 84 Jan. '21
Apr. '38 Mar. '33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(HA)
(NA)
D©c. '37 Dec. '32 May ' 27 July '24 Deo. '20
'53 Apr. '49
'54 June '49
'53 June '49
'53 2ndQ '49
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
June '38 July '32 Au«. '2B Jyne '34 July '21
Apr. '38 June '32
>S3) Oct. '33 Aug. '21
2ndQ '38 3rdQ '32 4thQ '27 ;*rdQ »a4 2ndQ '21
'54
'54
'54
'53
'54
'53
Apr.
July
July
June
Apr.
Jan.
Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 May '49 Dec. '37 Apr. '32 Aug. '27 June '24 Mar. '21
(NA)
(NA)
Apr. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 Jan. '49 Feb. '38 Feb. '32
' (NA)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
47.
52.
816.
54
Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales*
Sales of retai 1 stores
»
Fob. '61 May ' 58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49 June '38 Mar. '33 Jan, '38 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA) I
May ' 61 July '58 Sep. '54 Oct. '49 June '38 May '33
fNSC)
(NSC) 4thQ '21
IstQ '61 IstQ '58 2ndQ '54 2ndQ '49 IstQ '38 3rdQ ' 32
Feb. '61
(NSC)
Jan. '61
Apr. '61
Apr.
Feb.
Mar.
Mar.
'58
'58
'58
'58
Apr.
Apr.
Aug.
Jan.
July '61 Aug.
'58
Oct. '54 Nov.
'54 Oct. '49
'54 July '49
'54 Oct. '49
(NSC)
'54
May '3B
May J38.
(NA)
May '38
July '32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21
Mar '33 4thQ '26 2ndQ. ' 24 2ndQ '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) Mar. '22
(NSC)
Mar. '33
LAGGING INDICATORS
502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over ( inverted)
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q)
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventori es
„
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
,
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (Q)
'49
2ndQ '61 3rdQ '58 IstQ '55
4thQ '49
Mar.
Dec.
'61 Aug.
'58
Oct. '54
Sep. '61 June '59 Sep. '55
(NSC)
'49
(NA)
(NA)
3rdQ '38 latQ '33
(NA)
(NA)
July '50
Jun e ' 40
July '58 Oct. '54 Aug. '49
Dec. '38
(NA)
3rdQ '41
(NSC)
4thQ '61 2ndQ '58 IstQ '55
IstQ '50
July '33
(NA)
4thQ '27
(NA)
3rdQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
Feb. '28 Nov.
M4
(NA)
4thQ '81
(NA)
Apr. '22
(NA)
Sop. '22
NOTE: Specific trough dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as
the trough of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list/ the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent
business cycles.
NA= Not available.
66
NSC- No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators-Continued
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning inSelected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
May
1937
Nov.
1948
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
LEADING INDICATORS
L Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing
30. Nonagriculturat placements, all industries. . .
38. Index of net business formation
6. New orders, durable goods industries — /.
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . .
29. New building permits, private housing units. .
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
23. Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
16 Corporate orofits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
113 Change in consumer installment debt.
Apr..
July
Apr.
Apr.
Sep.;
Nov.
'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'58.
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.
'55
'55
'55
'55
'56
'55
Mar.
Feb,
Sep n
Jan,,
May
Nov.
'53
'53
'52
'53
'51
'52
(NSC) Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22
(NA)
(NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
' (NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Apr. '^6
(NSC) Nov. '25 Jan. '23
Aug. '48 Dec. '36
(NA)
(NA) ' ( N A )
June '48
(NA)
Oct. '47 Feb. '37 Feb. '28 July '25 Jan. '24
Dec.
Nov.
July
2ndQ
'59
'59
'59
'59
Apr.
Dec.
July
4thQ
-'56
'55
'56
'55
Jan,,
Feb.
Jan.
2ndQ
'53
'51
'53
'53
July
Jan.
June
2ndQ
(NA)
(NA)
'46
'48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29
'48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
'48 4thQ '36 3rdQ '29
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '19
(NA)
'25
(NSC)
3rdQ '26
(NA)
(NA)
Mar. '23 Apr. '20
Mar. '23 July '19
(NA)
2ndQ '23
Nov.
Oct. '55'
Mar. '55
Jan., ''51- June '48 Mar. '37 July '29
Dec* '52 Mar, '48 Mar. '36 May '29
Sep. '26
(NA)
June '22 Feb. '20
(NA)
(NA)
Apr. '60 Mar. '57
Feb. '60 Mar. '57
IstQ '60 3rdQ '57
June ' 53 Sep. '48 July '37 Aug. '29
(NA)
June ' 53 Jan. '48 July '37
2ndQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ '37 3rdQ '29
Jan. '26
(NA)
(NSC)
June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
(NA)
June '59
Aug. '59
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41 Employees on nonagricultural payrolls.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (0)
47.
52
816
54.
Industrial production
Personal income
.
Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retail stores
^
'53 July '48 May ' 37 July '29
'53 Oct. '48 June '37 Aug. '29
(NA)
(NA)
'53 Aug. '48
(NSC) Sep. '37 Sep., '29
'53
Jan . ' 60
. (NSC)
Jan. '60
Apr. '60
Feb.
Aug.
Feb.
Aug.
'57 July
'57 Oct.
'57 July
'57 .Mar.
May
Sep.
'57 Oct. '53
Jan. '49
Mar. ' 27 May ' 23 Feb. '20
(NA)
2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
July '20
(NSC)
LAGGING INDICATORS
502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over ( inverted)
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q)
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (Q) ,
' 60
2ndQ '60
3rdQ '57
3rdQ '53
4thQ '48
July '60
Sep.
'57
Sep. '53
Feb. '49
Jan. '61 Mar. < 5 8
Mar. '54
Nov.
T
48
'57
July '53
Aug.
'48
4thQ '57
4thQ '53
2ndQ '49
(NSC)
4thQ '59
Sep.
(NA)
3rdQ '37
(NA)
2ridQ '29
(NA)
4thQ '26
(NA)
(NA)
Dec. '37
(NSC)
(NSC)
Sep. '37
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
Oct. '29
Oct. '26
(HA)
(NA)
2ndQ '23
2ndQ '20
(NA)
Oct. '23 Nov.
(NA)
Oct. '23 Feb.
(HA)
'20
(NA)
'21
NOTE: Specific peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a peak as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as the
peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding tt> reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA= Not available.
NSC="No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
67
D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series
196 8
19 67
Series
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar,
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Nov.
Oct
Dec.
1
5= Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance
13. New business incorporations1.
107 9
101 9 138 5 145 8 112 7 96 0 94 9 79 3
87.3 96 5 118 7 99 4 108 6 105 3 106 1 97 3 101 0
14. Liabilities of business failures
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing2.
81.8
100.3
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries1
33, Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies3.
&r\
101.5
89.6
98.2 110.1
97.9
79 4
84 1 83 5
-129
+279
-285
37, Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting
higher inventories
39, Delinquency
rate, 30 days and over, total installment
loans4
92 2
90 9 100 1 102 2
72, Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
99.9 101.5
79.0 101.6
99.2
75.6
99.4 101.1
65.1 100.9
91. Defense Department obligations, total
92. Military contract awards in U S
87.6
80.2
98.1
91.5
91.5
93.0
79.2
80.4
99. 8 100.6
94.6 80.7
100.1
84.1
112. Change in business loans5
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
862. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery
D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB)6
• • • 107.2
100.2
110.1
93.1
10^5 9
+^fi
+9 ftp
4=^9
107 ft 1 1 9 A ~\C\L 9
inn Q
QQ 1
+50
_l_1 q
• • . 92.6
99.3
94.2
107.4
91.8
99 6 99 5 101 8
103.6 100.4 204.0
99.6
88 6
99.4 100.3 100,1
85.5 95.3 108.4
100.3 103.8 102.1
-15
97.3 119.8
105.4
88 7 103 4 m l n nft A
96 6
-388
99.6
Q
91.8 151.9
91 8 188 0
99.9 100.4
119.2 102.5
100.6 100.3
+17
100.2
84 3
95 0
71 6
03 5
120.!> 103.4
96.3
m
i mn
4-1 Aft
i nn r7
IM 1 101 8
OQ £
87 3
138 5
85.0
101.5
"• 1 A 1
AZ
4>^A
QfJ)
17
QT
>
80.2
100.3
Q/
1
1 9Q
Q5
j
Q6 ^
"7Q y
i ^FIQ
yu.y
fj/"\
Q
99.0
99.0
99 2
6? 8
99 1 10D 3
98 1 109 3
99 3
99 0
99 6
79 0
101 5
301 6
98.0
96 8
97.0 107.3
90 *> 109 4
98,3
95 4
87.6
80 7
98.1
91 5
100.0
99.7 99.6 99.8
99 9 111 7 11? 1 105 9
99.7
94 6
100.6
80 7
93.9 104.1 100.2
+6
•t•
100.3
• ••
93.1
-9
94.1
• * .
107.2
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For adescription of .the method used to compute these factors, -see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant
of the_ Census Method
II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
* :"*=™'" —
^•Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading;-day factors due to
rounding.
2
Qxmrterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter,
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month not change in the \madjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
Method II seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly aeries. Data are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.).
^Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed.
6
l--quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed on the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted d iff us lor index tfj computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
68
F. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a)
new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically fora long period of time. See the Index, Series
Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ©(indicating unadjusted data)
follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from monthly data with more digits or from data which
have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from monthly data presented herein.
Monthly
Quarterly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Dl. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR AVERAGE WORKWEEK,
PROD. i WORKERS,
(1-MONTH SPAN)
1945
1946
1947. ,
Sept
Aug.
Oct
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
MANUFACTURING— 21 I N D U S T R I E S
11! Q
IV Q
'
AVERAGE PER PERIOD
»•,
...
33.3
47.6
64.3
42.9
1948..
1949..
1950..
28.6
40.5
81.0
26.2
64.3
64.3
71.4
26*2
71.4
52.4
9.5
81.0
1951,,
1952..
1953..
54.8
73.8
28.6
54.3
42.9
42.9
71.4
26.2
83.3
1954. .
1955.,
1956,.
21.4
90.5
40.5
69.0
81.0
26.2
1957..
1958..
1959*.
38.1
33.3
92.9
I960..
1961..
1962..
45.2
26.2
14.3
90.5
64.3
71.4
69.0
...
50*8
43.7
66.2
...
42.9
69.0
66.7
45.2
47.6
85.7
38.1
64.3
81.0
73.8
42.9
64.3
9,5
81.0
28.6
50.0
59,5
59.5
38.1
19.0
57.1
14.3
59,5
38.1
42.1
43.7
72.2
46.8
42.0
77.8
40.5
62.7
58.0
34.1
46.0
51.6
40.9
48.6
64.9
78.6
14.3
42.9
19.0
83.3
31,0
38.1
57.1
16.7
38.1
16.7
38.1
21.4
85.7
31.0
71.4
95.2
9.5
16.7
61.9
81.0
69.05?
31.0
23.8
73.8
59.5
35.7
60,3
47.6
51.6
45.2
51.6
30.2
43.6
65.9
26.2
53.2
50.8
46.8
50.6
54.0
38.7
31.0
83.3
23.8
28.6
45.2
71.4
69.0
90.5
4.8
78.6
40.5
28.6
64.3
21.4
81 .0
52.4
66.7
21.4
19.0
73.8
73.8
76.2
69.0
64.3
92.9
66.7
16.7
40.5
33.3
66.7
40.5
84.9
30.2
58.7
58.7
34.9
45.2
54.0
58.7
69.9
56.3
49.2
63.5
43.3
73.8
11.9
64.3
21.4
66.7
69.0
42*9
45.2
71.4
9.5
64.3
71.4
40.5
95.2
35.7
42.9
78.6
47.6
40.5
78.6
31.0
57.1
73,8
23.8
4.8
35.7
52.4
35.7
88.1
50.0
35.7
52.4
69.0
44.4
37.3
75.4
31.0
68.2
59.5
46.8
77.0
34.1
25.4
58.7
57.1
36.9
60.3
56.5
35.7
92.9
21-4
14.3
57.1
61.9
35.7
57.1
83.3
35.7
73.8
81.0
81.0
47.6
23.8
23.8
95.2
45.2
38.1
61.9
33.3
28.6
61.9
40.5
23.8
45.2
85.7
78.6
83.3
4.8
19.0
73.8
73.8
7.1
19.0
23.8
28.6
69,0
55.5
46.8
72.2
50.0
30.2
56.3
53.2
34,9
58.7
34.1
3S.1
64.1
46.2
1963*.
1964.,
1965.,
81.0
0.0
54.8
45.2
88.1
73.8
52.4
45.2
73.8
19.0
78.6
14.3
85.7
38.1
83.3
66.7
40.5
40.5
57.1
59.5
54.8
40.5
64.3
45.2
69.0
16.7
35.7
52.4
66.7
69.0
31.0
66*7
69.0
78.6
97.6
69.0
59.5
44.4
67.5
57.1
52.4
46.0
55.5
46.8
45.2
54,0
77.0
69.0
56.6
55.2
56.9
1966..
47.6
81.0
35.7
40.5
61.9
40.5
21.4
59.5
71.4
38.1
35.7
21.4
54.8
47.6
50.8
31.7
46.2
Dl.
DIFFUSION INDEX FOR AVERAGE WORKWEEK, PROD. t WORKERS, MANUFACTURING — 21 INDUSTRIES
(9-MONTH SPAN)
5 3>. 6
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1945
...
...
26.2
50 .0
59 .5
33.3
23,8
47 .6
66. 7
47 .6
46.0
1948..
1949. .
1950..
76.2
4.8
90.5
61.9
14.3
95.2
42.9
14.3
97.6
45.2
19.0
100.0
4.8
50.0
95.2
21.4
47.6
90.5
16.7
42.9
95.2
0.0
50.0
95.2
14.3
90.5
78.6
4.8
78.6
81.0
2.4
85.7
73.8
0.0
92.9
73.8
60.3
11.1
94.4
23.8
38.9
95.2
10.3
61.1
89.7
2.4
85.7
76.2
24.2
49.2
88.9
1951. .
1952..
1953..
45.2
40.5
81.0
42.9
47.6
14.3
31.0
42.9
9.5
21.4
52.4
7.1
23.8
71.4
4,8
19.0
71.4
9.5
35.7
66.7
9.5
26.2
73.8
0.0
26.2
90.5
0.0
42*9
64.3
0.0
38.1
85.7
4.8
23.8
83.3
0*0
39.7
43.7
34.9
21.4
65.1
7.1
29.4
77.0
3.2
34.9
77.8
1.6
31.4
65.9
11.7
1954..
1955..
1956. .
2.4
100.0
31.0
50.0
100.0
14.3
33.3
85,7
4.8
42.9
81.0
9.5
38.1
85.7
16.7
59.5
90.5
21.4
73.8
92.9
19.0
78.6
81.0
35.7
92.9
85.7
21.4
92.9
38.1
54.8
95.2
33.3
57.1
90.5
61.9
28.6
28.6
95.2
16.7
46.8
85.7
15.9
81.8
86.5
25.4
92.9
44.4
46.8
62.5
79.0
26.2
1957..
1958..
1959..
21.4
14.3
90.5
11.9 ,
19.0
95.2
JL6.7
45.2
90.5
21.4
66,7
88.1
14.3
85.7
71.4
4.8
90.5
42.9
0.0
100.0
38.1
2.4
95.2
45.2
4.8
92.9
35,7
7.1
97.6
11.9
11*9
97.6
16.7
11.9
95,2
19,0
16.7
26.2
92.1
13.5
81.0
67.5
2.4
96.0
39.7
10.3
96.8
15.9
10.7
75.0
53.8
I960..
1961. .
1962..
28.6
42.9
83.3
28.6
85.7
81.0
28.6
73.8
64.3
23.8
95.2
28.6
11.9
90.5
66.7
11.9
97.6
50.0
9.5
95.2
54.8
7.1
90.5
28.6
35.7
64.3
26.2
7.1
92.9
26.2
19,0
83.3
35.7
28.6
95.2
21.4
28.6
67.5
76.2
15.9
94.4
48.4
17.4
83.3
36.5
18.2
90.5
27.8
20.0
83.9
47.2
1963..
1964..
1965. .
57,1
66.7
90.5
45.2
59.5
78.6
90.5
69.0
78.6
69.0
85.7
71.4
81.0
45.2
42.9
69.0
85.7
61.9
69.0
71.4
64.3
64.3
100.0
69.0
52.4
88.1
85.7
59.5
88.1
97.6
57.1
92.9
92.9
73.8
57.1
78.6
64.3
65.1
82.6
73.0
72.2
58.7
61.9
86.5
73.0
63.5
79.4
89.7
65.7
7!>.8
76.0
1966, .
85.7
83.3
45.2
42.9
42.9
35,7
14,3
7.1
14.3
7,1
14.3
9.5
71.4
40.5
11*9
10.3
33.5
NOTE: The series on this page are revised from 1957 to date, and data not previously shown for 1947 have teen added.
SEPTEMBER 1968
69
F. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This apipendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a)
new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series
Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless th@synbGl<^(gndicat«ngunadjusteddata)
follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from monthly data with more digits or from data which
have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from monthly data presented herein.
Monthly
Quarterly
Annual
Year
Jan,
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
-
June
July
Aug.
Sept,
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
D4X. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS,
ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY--30 INDUSTRIES (1-MONTH SPAN)
1945. .
1946. .
1947..
II Q
IV Q
111(1
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
...
61.7
56,7
56.7
45.0
55.0
48.3
68.3
71.7
75.0
58.3
70.0
...
52.2
62.8
67.8
1948. .
1949. .
1950,.
51.7
5.0
53.3
33.3
20.0
68. 3
55.0
26.7
83.3
3 8. 3
36.7
as.o
68.3
25.0
83.3
80.0
20,0
81.7
68.3
23.3
91.7
46.7
53.3
96.7
48.3
70>.0
76.7
35.0
53.3
75.0
40.0
43.3
66.7
28.3
60.0
71.7
46.7
17.2
63.3
62.2
27.2
83.3
54.4
48.9
08.4
34.4
52.2
71.1
49.4
36.4
77.8
mi. .
1952..
1953..
90.0
61.7
75.0
86.7
58.3
71.7
71.7
56.7
78.3
71.7
£8.3
63.3
46.7
53.3
60.0
61.7
66.7
46.7
45.0
51.7
45.0
36.7
73.3
26.7
35.0
81.7
25.0
46.7
86.7
21.7
63.3
83.3
25.0
66.3
80.0
23.3
82.8
58.9
75.0
60.0
59.4
56.7
;(B.9
68.9
32.2
61.1
8S.O
23.3
60.7
68*1
46.8
19S4..
1955. ,
1956. .
20.0
71.7
68.3
28.3
80.0
66.7
28.3
96.7
46.7
23.3
76.7
63.3
28.3
88.3
40.0
26.7
91.7
31.7
41.7
51.7
25.0
43.3
63.3
80.0
60.0
71.7
33.3
61.7
76.7
78.3
83.3
68.3
41.7
61.7
75.0
66.7
25. S
82.8
60.6
26.1
85.6
45.0
48.3
62.2
46.1
&«.<>
73.3
62*2
42.2
76.0
53.5
1957,.
1958..
1959..
41.7
Id. 3
96.7
50.0
8.3
75.0
48.3
16.7
91.7
35.0
20.0
38.3
26.7
40.0
81.7
35.0
6S.O
66.7
40.0
63.3
65.0
45.0
83.3
43.3
36.7
93.3
66.3
30,0
66.3
31.7
20.0
90.0
58.3
20.0
78.3
75.0
46.7
14.4
87.8
32.2
41.7
78.9
40.6
00*0
58.9
23.3
7H.9
55.0
35.7
53.7
70.1
i960..
1961..
1962. .
76.7
41.7
56.7
76.7
33.3
73.3
36.7
60.0
70,0
SI. 7
S6.7
85.0
35.0
78.3
65.0
28.3
83.3
61.7
40.0
66.7
51.7
38.3
81.7
66.7
26.7
58.3
51.7
20.0
81.7
45.0
25.0
81.7
33.3
15.0
68.3
43.3
63.4
45.0
66.7
38.3
74.4
70.6
35.0
60.9
56.7
20.0
77.2
40.5
39.2
66.4
S8.6
1963..
1964..
1965. .
61. 7
55.0
70.0
43.3
76. ?
78.3
7S.O
65.0
81.7
68.3
73.3
66.7
71.7
66.7
65.0
53.3
66.7
80.0
68.3
71.7
91.7
58.3
63.3
75.0
61.7
88.3
76.7
71.7
55.0
90.0
40.0
78.3
90.0
65.0
SO.O
85.0
60.0
65.6
76.7
64.4
68.9
70.6
62.8
76.1
01*1
58.9
71.1
88.3
61.5
70.4
79.2
1966. .
63.3
86.7
93.3
85.0
76.7
91.7
56.7
76.7
45.0
73.3
65.0
76*7
87.8
84. 5
'39*5
71.7
75.8
041. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS.
ESTABLISHMENT SURVEY — 30 INDUSTRIES (6-MONTH SPAN)
AVERAGE FOR PCFUOO
.4.
1947. .
43.3
46.7
56,7
65.0
73,3
83.3
81*7
75.0
71.7
• £.
. i...
.. *
48*9
. *.
.*.
73.9
* J*
.* *
76*1
...
1948. .
1949. .
1950..
43.3
16.7
73.3
48.3
10.0
93.3
51.7
11.7
83.3
53.3
15.0
93.3
55.0
20.0
98.3
53.3
20.0
100.0
70.0
33.3
100.0
68.3
33.3
93,3
43.3
50.0
96.7
25.0
55.0
96.7
16.7
56.7
90.0
15.0
60.0
80.0
47*8
12^8
83.3
53.9
18.3
97.2
60*5
'18*9
96.7
lfl*9
57*2
88.9
45.3
31.8
91.5
1951. .
1952..
1953..
76.7
66.7
36.7
76.7
63.3
71.7
73.3
58.3
70.0
63.3
55.0
68.3
46.7
63.3
ss.o
40.0
83.3
33.3
38.3
85. 0
26.7
48.3
96.7
30.0
48.3
93.3
20.0
50.0
90.0
16.7
50.0
86.7
20.0
73.3
85.0
20.0
75.6
62.8
76.1
50.0
67.2
52.2
4S.O
91.7
25.6
57*8
87*2
18*9
57.1
77. Z
43.2
1954. .
1955..
1956..
16.7
B8.3
71.7
15.0
83.3
63.3
13.3
93.3
56.7
23.3
93.3
36.7
16.7
95.0
46.7
18.3
81.7
45.0
40.0
80.0
41.7
56.7
78.3
51.7
60.0
76.7
55.0
71.7
BO.O
63.3
83,3
83.3
60.0
90.0
76.7
61.7
15.0
88.3
63.9
19*4
90.0
42.8
52*2
78.3
49*5
81*7
80.0
63*3
42.1
84. 2
54. 9
1957. .
1958, .
1959..
48.3
13.3
95,0
38.3
15.0
91.7
26.7
15.0
96.7
26.7
13.3
88.3
25.0
21.7
86.7
20.0
66.7
73.3
16.7
68.3
61.7
16.7
86.7
51.7
11.7
91.7
58.3
18.3
93,3
65.0
13.3
96.7
73.3
95.0
11.7
68.3
37.8
14.4
94.5
23.9
33.9
82. 6
13.0
82.2
57.2
14.4
95.0
68.9
22.8
56.4
75.8
I960..
1961..
1962..
73.3
20.0
96.7
75.0
26.7
33.3
48.3
69.0
88.3
38.3
76.7
76.7
26.7
83.3
80.0
33.3
88.3
76.7
23.3
30.0
55.0
20.0
90.0
46.7
20.0
81.7
36.7
18.3
81.7
46.7
21.7
83.3
41.7
20.0
80.0
56.7
65*5
37.2
87.8
32.8
82.3
77.8
21*1
03.9
46*1
20.0
81*7
48*4
34.8
71.4
65.0
1963..
1964. .
1965..
58.3
63.3
73.3
68.3
70.0
76.7
66.7
71.7
80.0
63.3
£6. 7
90.0
68.3
83.3
90.0
68.3
90,0
86.7
68.3
80.0
93.3
50.0
93.3
90.0
58.3
91.7
90.0
50.0
81.7
90.0
66.7
86.7
86.3
66.7
90.0
93.3
64.4
63*3
78.3
66.6
86.7
88.9
58*9
89.3
91.1
61*1
86*1
90.5
62.8
82.4
B7.2
1966..
93.3
93.3
85.0
60.0
85.0
73.3
73.3
68. 3
70.0
76.7
70.0
55.0
90.5
79.4
70*5
67.2
76.9
NOTE:
The oerioo on this page are revised from 1957 to date, and data not previously shown for 1947 have been added.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
70
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
SEPTEMBER 1966
F. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available.. Data are published in this appendix for (a)
new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically fora long period of time. Seethe Index, Series
Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol® (indicating unadjusted data)
follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from monthly data with more digits or from data which
have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed 1rom monthly data presented herein.
Monthly
Quarterly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS* NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(BILLION DOLLARS)
II Q
'
IIIQ
IV Q
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
1945. .
1946. .
1947. .
,<f.
. *.
. *»
• •4
*..
. . *
.*.
* ..
4 ..
* *.
...
1948..
1949..
1950..
7.46
7.14
7.56
7.50
7.08
7.62
7.82
6.67
7.86
8.00
6.16
8.35
8.06
6.02
9.23
8.85
5.75
9.39
8.85
5.93
11.52
8.92
6.85
14.21
8.38
6.92
11.79
8.34
6.7T
12.00
7.95
7.12
10.95
7.72
7.00
11.88
22.78
20.89
23.04
24.91
17.93
26.97
26*15
19.70
37.52
24.01
20.89
34.83
97.85
79.41
122.36
1951..
1952..
1953. .
15.46
11.06
14.45
14.08
11.06
14.21
14.64
12.81
13.34
13.84
12.94
13.69
13.25
10.86
13.58
12.88
13.00
13.20
12.61
12.04
12.35
11.41
11.76
10.89
10.75
12.66
9.71
11.98
11.85
9.99
11.55
11.95
9.94
11.18
12.89
9.96
44.18
34.93
42.00
39.97
36.80
40.47
34.77
36.46
32.95
34.71
36.69
29.89
153.63
144.88
145.31
1954..
1955..
1956..
9.99
13.48
15.72
10.31
13.92
14.61
9.72
14.96
15.04
10.17
14.24
15.69
9.75
14.51
15.16
10.29
14.84
15.06
10.50
14.98
14.75
10.45
15.04
17.73
11.69
15.74
14.78
12.64
15.74
14.84
11.14
15.74
15.78
12.60
16.42
15.73
30.02
42.36
45.37
30,21
43.59
45.91
32.64
45.76
47*26
36*38
47.90
46.35
129.25
179.61
184.89
1957..
1958..
1959..
15.16
11.62
15.52
15.64
11.67
16.90
15.14
12.66
16.98
14.11
11.69
17.08
14.58
12.44
16.30
14.23
13.13
16.72
13.43
13.40
16*08
14.03
13.32
14.62
13.64
13.64
15.25
12.96
14.63
15*48
13.58
15.36
14.57
12.54
14.62
15.76
45.94
35.95
49.40
42.92
37.26
50.10
41,10
40.36
45.95
39.08
44.61
45.81
169.04
158.18
191.26
I960..
1961..
1962..
15.68
14.18
17.28
15.52
14.39
17.33
15.27
14.49
16.79
14.92
15.31
16.66
15.36
15.51
16.80
15.43
15.92
16.50
15.25
15.53
16.66
15.65
16.43
16.82
15.69
16.21
16.94
14.50
16.32
17.49
14.62
16.86
17.23
14.86
17.42
17.99
46.47
43.06
51.40
45.71
46.74
49.96
46.59
48.17
50.42
43.98
50*60
52.71
182.75
188.57
204.49
1963..
1964..
1965..
17.98
19.89
22.50
18.60
19.38
21.89
18.74
19.27
22.20
18.46
20.13
22.88
18.88
20.20
22.10
18.01
20.40
22.45
18.60
21.17
22.96
18.36
19.77
23.60
18.68
20.88
22.78
18.98
20.45
23.92
18.66
20.38
24.25
18.37
21.48
24.64
55.32
58.54
66.59
55.35
60.73
67.43
55.64
61.82
69.34
56*01
62.31
72,81
222*32
243.40
276.17
1966..
25.01
25.24
26.08
25.91
25.47
26.03
25.46
25.15
27.08
26. 3T
25.17
25.17
76.33
77.41
77.69
76.71
308.14
10.
CONTRACTS AND ORDERS, PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
( B I L L I O N DOLLARS)
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
1945.*
1946. .
1947. .
..*
• **
. ..
, j.
.£.
*. 4
. **
4 ..
* J.
. £.
. *.
...
» **
4.81
4.50
8.43
19.83
16.58
28*10
1948..
1949..
1950..
1.50
1.31
1.60
1.72
1.42
1.60
1.66
1.41
1.74
1.84
1.21
1.74
1.59
1.25
2.16
1951..
1952..
1953..
3.43
2.51
2.84
3.51
2.55
2,88
3.19
2.59
2.6*
3.21
2.56
2.88
4.36
2.39
2.76
2.98
2.69
2.16
2.84
2.76
2.66
2.73
2.48
2.23
2.36
3.34
2.57
2.63
2,50
2.72
2.63
2.36
2.34
2.83
2.83
2.14
10.13
7.65
8.36
10.55
7.64
7.80
7.93
8*58
7.46
8.09
7.69
7.20
36.70
31.56
30.82
1954..
1955..
1956..
2.20
2.50
3.35
2.24
2.72
3.26
1.91
3.15
3.28
1.96
2.93
3.40
2.00
2.80
3.56
2.05
2.99
3.60
2.15
2.97
3.43
2.15
3.15
3.41
2.3.1
3.33
3.33
2.43
3.20
3.34
2.25
3.45
3,79
2.40
3.45
3.58
6.35
8.37
9.89
6.01
8.72
10*56
6.41
9i45
10.17
7.08
10.10
10.71
26.05
36.64
41.33
1957..
1958..
1959..
3.65
2.77
3.09
3.55
2.67
3.19
3.52
2.66
3.73
3.15
2.69
3.35
3.29
2.72
3.46
3.13
2.85
3.54
3,06
2.75
3.61
3.13
3.13
3.22
2.83
3.14
3.63
2.89
3.04
3.50
2.89
3.00
3.30
2.74
2.91
3.49
10.72
8.10
10.01
9.57
8.26
10.35
9.02
9.02
10.46
8.52
8.95
10.29
37.83
34.33
41.11
I960..
1961..
1962..
3.27
3.47
3.60
3.35
3.40
3.94
3.27
3.24
3.66
3.52
3.27
3.85
3.51
3.24
3.69
3.41
3.41
3.62
3.41
3.47
3.64
3.41
3.67
3.66
3.44
3,42
3.65
3.34
3.51
3.73
3.20
3.72
3.99
3.49
3.45
4.08
9.89
10.11
11.20
10*44
9.92
11.16
10.26
10.56
10.95
10.03
10.68
11.80
40.62
41.27
4*5.11
1963..
1964*.
1965..
3.78
4.69
4.87
3.91
4.24
4.93
3.88
4.43
5.23
3.98
4.47
5.25
4.36
4.82
5.16
4.02
4.98
5.12
3.93
4.63
5.24
4.07
4.68
5.08
4.20
4.76
5.52
4.27
4.79
5.52
4.50
5.10
5.45
4.57
5.16
5.81
11.57
13.36
15,03
12.36
14.27
15.53
12*20
14.07
15.84
13.34
15.05
16.78
49.47
56.75
63.18
1966..
5.90
6.38
6.23
6.44
6.24
6.12
6.51
6.24
6.90
6.39
6. 06
6.05
18.51
18.80
19.65
18.50
75.46
NOTE:
1.84
1.37
2.09
1.68
1.26
2.53
1.60
1.36
3.20
1.59
1.49
3.01
1.62
1.43
2.71
1.60
1.61
2.72
1.59
1,46
3,00
4.88
4.14
4.94
5.27
3.83
5.99
4.87
4.11
8.74
The series on this page are revised from 1961 to date.
SEPTEMBER 1968
71
F. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a)
new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically fora long period of time, See the Index, Series
Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the sym bo [<§> (indicating unadjusted data)
follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from monthly data with moret digits or from data which
have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from monthly data presented herein.
Monthly
Quarterly
Year
Jan.
20.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Mov.
Dec.
IQ
1948..
1949..
1950..
0.4
1.8
0.6
6.8
-1.1
II Q
IIIQ
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE: roit PC;*IOD
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLION DOLLARS)
-0.4
-1.9
3.1
1953..
Mar.
CHANGE IN BOOK VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS* INVENTORIES, MATERIALS AND SUPPLIES
1945..
1946..
1947..
1951..
Feb.
0.9
5.1
3.3
1.0
4.2
3.8
-0.6
0.6
1.8
-0.5
2.8
1.0
0.7
5.4
-2.4
0.2
3.7
0.1
1.7
0.8
-1.2
-2.5
4.4
-0.9
0.7
3.1
2.7
-0.1
4.3
2*9
0-2
148
247
-0.0
2*5
2*2
OJ9
30
-1*2
-046
349
146
0*1
2*9
1.3
-0.3
-1.9
-0.8
2.5
-3.9
0.3
l.l
-2.8
0.2
1.2
-2.7
1.7
2.9
-3.9
1.1
0.4
-3.0
3.0
0.0
-0.4
5.3
-0.4
-1.9
6.9
-0.6
-2.7
6vO
-0.4
-0.5
8.6
0*5
1*3
0*3
0*9
-U3
0,0
UT
-3*1
1.0
0.0
-2JO
fa
-042
-046
T46
0*6
-1*8
3*4
2.7
5.5
5.9
1.5
1.9
0.0
1.3
-3.5
3.6
-0.2
-0.5
2.3
-0*8
0*7
0.3
1.5
0.4
3.6
0.0
540
-147
0*2
3*1
-l.S
U3
-047
-1*9
047
0*4
049
-147
2*0
-1.1
0.2
-0.4
-1.1
-0.1
-2*1
0.1
2.2
1.6
1.1
1955..
1956..
1.0
1.0
-0.7
2.0
1.2
2.2
0.9
2.3
0.8
1.8
0.8
1.7
1.0
1957.,
-0.5
0.5
0.7
-3.3
0.8
0.7
0.5
1959..
0.2
1.6
3.2
3.2
4.7
7.0
1.2
1960. .
1961..
1962..
2.3
0.5
2.9
1.6
1.5
0.1
0.4
-0.4
2.1
2.3
1.1
1.7
0.3
1963..
1964,.
1965..
0.0
-0.8
0.4
0.1
-0.1
1.2
1.0
0.4
2.9
0.8
-0.9
4.3
-0.4
0.3
1.7
0.7
0.0
0.1
1966..
1.2
2.5
1.9
2.0
1.3
-0.5
-2.7
-0.4
-1.0
0.3
-0.1
1.2
0.2
2.6
1.1
2.6
2.0
3.9
-2JO
0^5
U7
-0*J
1*1
2*1
-142
248
-041
-141
244
246
-1.2
1*7
1*6
-0.1
0.0
-3.9
1.2
1.4
-4.8
1.3
1.7
-4.1
0.0
-0.9
2.2
-2.1
0.6
3*5
0*2
-ia
147
-0*6
-3*0
940
045
940
-245
-043
045
04f
-0*0
-0*9
1*2
-0.4
-2.6
"0.6
-1.9
1.2
0.4
-3*5
4*4
-0*1
0*0
-0*9
2*4
-i4&
liO
-049
149
0*3
-240
146
046
-0*3
0.3
1*0
0*4
-0*2
2*0
047
*42
147
-040
347
144
0.4
2*8
2*8
0*4
-0*»2
1**5
2*8
1*9
4*1
•US
2 J5
3*0
44*
14*
<4U
4*.
4.*
4.*
-0.1
1.0
0.1
1.1
2.4
2.5
-0.2
4.7
0.7
3.5
0.9
I'd
24. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS* NEW ORDERS, MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT INDUSTRIES
( B I L L I O N DOLLARS)
ia
1*7
TOTAL FOR PCRKO
.*.
.*»
.4.
«^.
44.
. /.
*J4
414
«*4
<! 4 »
44«
.4.
1948. .
1949. .
1950..
1.28
1.13
1.32
1.43
1.22
1.42
1.45
1.21
1.43
1*62
1*02
1*49
1.31
1.08
1.88
1.57
1.13
1.81
1.38
1.06
2.22
1.36
1.13
2.01
1.38
1.26
2.64
1.39
1.19
2*40
1.40
1.25
2.37
1.43
1.20
2.68
4*16
3*56
4*17
4*50
3423
4,U
4*22
54i8
3*4'5
7467
U64
7*45
17400
13466
24*47
1951..
1952..
1953..
3.06
2.18
2.57
3.09
2.25
2.43
2.92
2.30
2.29
2.88
2*22
2*41
2.74
2.04
2.30
2.56
2.23
1.90
2.46
2.36
2.09
2.35
2.07
1.84
2.11
2.20
1.88
2.40
2.19
I 480
2.28
1.97
1.78
2.37
2.19
1.76
9*07
6*73
7i29
6*18
6449
6*61
6492
646!)
548IL
7*15
643$
5*34
31*32
26420
25*05
1954..
1955..
1956..
1.78
2.09
2.72
1.86
2.29
2. 55
1.56
2*62
2.68
1*65
2.30
2.82
1.61
2.31
2.99
1.65
2.47
3.02
1.75
2.43
2.77
1.74
2.59
2.04
1.94
2.57
2.84
1.93
2.64
2.30
1.03
2.77
3.21
1*95
2.87
3.07
5*20
7*00
7*95
4*91
7*08
8.83
544!)
7.5<l
044!i
5*71
8*28
9<16
21425
29*95
34*39
1957..
1998..
1959..
2.96
2.28
2.62
2.96
2.16
2.70
2.03
2*21
3.06
2.61
2.25
2.79
2.63
2.26
2.92
2.53
2.28
3.00
2.52
2.29
3.03
2.56
2.46
2.79
2.42
2.56
3.04
2.36
2.48
2.93
2.33
2*50
2.74
2.16
2.47
2.96
8*75
6*65
8*38
7*77
6,7*
8*71
7*8(1
7*33,
848<>
6*85
T**3
8*63
30*67
28*26
14*56
I960..
1961..
1962..
2.73
2.72
3.04
2.83
2.75
3.27
2.78
2.76
2.92
2.90
2.73
3.20
2.89
2.67
3.03
2.87
2.82
2.99
2.78
2.93
2.90
2.78
3.08
2.99
2.75
2.91
3.06
2.69
2.94
3.11
2.40
3.04
3.33
2.96
2.90
3.16
8.34
8*23
9*23
6466
6*22
9422
8431
849!!
9J03
8*15
8*86
9*60
33*46
54*25
37408
1963..
1964..
1965. .
3.20
3.93
4.11
3.30
3.52
4.06
3.34
3.77
4.41
3.36
3.73
4.35
3.50
4.12
4.21
3.35
4.25
4.40
3.33
3.08
4.43
3.47
3.93
4.34
3,54
3.93
4.53
3.54
4*01
4*64
3.45
4.C6
4.72
3.62
4.14
5.04
9*04
11*22
12.58
10.21
K24IO
1.2*96
10434>
114?4>
13430
10*61
12*21
14*40
41*00
47*27
53*24
1966..
4.87
5.25
5.15
5.31
5.31
5.31
5.50
5.18
5.54
5,45
5.19
5.20
15.27
15*93
16422
15484
69*26
NOTE: The scries en this page aro reviaed from 1961 to date and, where available, data not previously shown for 1945 thrombi 1947 have 'been (idled.,
SEPTEMBER 1968
72
F. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published i n this appendix for (a)
new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series
Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ©(indicating unadjusted data)
follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from monthly data with more digits or from data which
have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from monthly data presented herein.
Monthly
Quarterly
Year
Annual
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Nov.
Oct.
Dec.
IQ
25. CHANGE IN MANUFACTURERS' UNFILLED ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
.« j
...
-0.16
-0.17
-0.42
-0.35
-0.40
-0.76
-0.50
-0.01
-0.49
-O.C4
•*•
0.06
...
1947..
1948..
1949..
1950..
-0.33
-0.99
0.58
-0.30
-0.85
0.36
-0.14
-0.96
0.41
0.01
-1.30
0.46
-C,34
-1,10
0.43
0.73
-1.24
0.77
0.36
-0.88
2.33
0.21
-0.41
3.91
-0.27
-0.30
2.18
-0.44
0.34
1.97
-0.61
0.43
1.12
-tO.86
0.26
1.29
1951..
1952..
1953..
5.41
0.59
1.93
3.72
-0.01
0.42
3.91
1.97
-0.80
3.31
2.18
-0.52
2.42
0.21
-0.09
2.60
2.72
-0.53
2.25
1.80
-2.18
0.97
0.65
-2.25
0.80
0.85
-3.49
1.32
-0.56
-2.54
0.81
-0.65
-1.C5
1954..
1955..
1956. .
-2.46
0.78
1.31
-1.69
0.62
0.23
-2.49
1.19
0.41
-1.83
0.36
1.22
-1.79
0.34
0.55
-1.67
0.56
0.26
-1.19
0.81
1.46
-1.00
0.65
1.90
0.30
1.18
0.12
1.31
1.47
-0*16
1957..
1958..
1959..
-0.25
-2.03
0.87
-0.02
-1,40
1.42
-0.87
-0.67
0.83
-0.86
-0.79
0.76
-0.64
-0.32
-0.44
-1.25
-0.09
-0.09
-1.73
0.10
-0.13
-1.70
-0.21
0.00
-1.41
-0.22
0.90
I960..
1961..
1962..
-1.40
-0.38
0.38
-1.00
-0.07
0.33
-1.38
-0.34
-0.63
-0.94
0.29
-0.60
-0.77
0.19
-0.36
-0.42
-0.32
-0.56
0.32
-0.20
0.33
0.46
-0.42
1963..
1964. .
1965..
0.80
0.66
1.40
0.90
0.21
0.66
1.13
0.36
0.32
0,56
0.66
0.88
0.70
0,77
0.52
-0.43
0.92
0.54
-0.24
1.25
0.36
1966..
1.45
1.32
1.82
1.55
1.01
1.39
1.30
65
III Q
IV Q
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
( B I L L I O N DOLLARS)
o.ia
HQ
j j.
. j.
**•.
* J*
*..
**.
* ••
*i4
-1.17
-1*27
-0.47
-0*77
-2.80
1*35
0*40
-3.64
1.66
0^30
-U59
8*42
-1.91
1.03
4.38
-1*98
-7.00
15*81
0.45
-0.48
^1.94
13.04
2.35
1.55
8.33
Sill
-1.14
4J02
3,30
-7*92
2*58
-1.69
-6.33
27*97
9.27
-13.84
-0.82
1.16
0.25
^0.06
1.87
0.07
-6.64
2*59
1.95
-5*29
1.26
2.03
-1.89
2**64
3.iO
0.43
4*50
0*16
-13,39
10.99
7.64
-1.91
0.39
1.10
-1.45
0.64
0.00
-1.44
-0.01
-0.31
-1.14
-4*10
3.12
-2.75
-1*20
0*23
-4*84
-0*33
OJ77
-4.80
1.02
0*79
-13.53
-4.61
4.91
0.13
0.10
-0.15
-0.75
0.19
0*25
-0.30
0.38
-0.17
-0.19
0.59
1.08
-3.78
-0.79
0*08
-2*13
0*66
-1.28
0^90
-OJ77
-o*>io
-1.24
1.16
1*16
-7.25
1*93
-0*81
0.07
0.31
0.48
0.32
0.72
0.93
-0.01
0.94
1.02
0.01
0.37
1.01
-0.36
0.50
1.19
2*83
1*23
2.38
0.83
2*35
1.94
0;15
2J28
U77
-0*36
1.61
3*22
3.45
7.67
9*31
0.61
1.82
0.56
-0.09
0.26
4.59
3495
3J73
0*73
13.00
MANUFACTURERS* INVENTORIES OF F I N I S H E D GOODS, BOOK VALUE, TOTAL
( B I L L I O N DOLLARS)
END OF PERIOD VALUE
1945..
1946. .
1947.*
4.16
4.33
6.13
4.07
4.62
6.32
4.03
4.54
6.43
4.05
4.46
6.57
4.03
4.39
6.69
4.00
4.37
6.83
4,06
4.71
7.10
4.05
5.08
7.28
4.14
5.37
7.37
4.20
5.83
7,57
4.36
5.91
7.55
4.35
5.80
7.54
4.03
4.54
6.43
4.00
4*37
6*83
4J14
5*37
7J37
4.35
5.80
7*34
4*35
5.80
7*54
1948..
1949..
1950. B
7.73
9.33
8,99
7.84
9.52
9.03
7.96
9.64
9.09
8.02
9.62
9.08
8.13
9.53
9.03
8.22
9.52
9.10
8.43
9.39
8.79
8.53
9.25
8.57
8.80
9.13
6.68
8*95
9.12
8.85
8.99
8.92
9.17
9. IS
8.96
9.22
7*96
9.64
9.09
8*22
9*52
9.10
8J60
9il3
8*68
9.15
8.98
9*22
9*15
8.98
9*22
1951..
1952, *
1953..
9.33
12.48
12.45
9.49
12.55
12.40
9.65
12.64
12.41
9.98
12.57
12.47
10,43
12.33
12.66
10.91
12.34
12.80
11.55
12.31
12.93
12.05
12.35
13.14
12.34
12.36
13.31
12*32
12*33
13.47
12.22
12.32
13.57
12.28
12.33
13.62
9.65
12.64
12.41
10*91
12*34
12*80
12J34
12.36
13*31
12.28
12*33
13*62
12*28
12*33
13.62
1954. .
1955..
1956..
13.62
13.55
14.20
13.64
13.61
14.39
13.71
13.65
14.48
13.56
13.60
14.59
13.46
13.62
14.82
13.47
13.62
15.24
13.45
13.61
15.42
13.32
13.72
15.71
13.28
13.75
15.96
13.32
13.82
16.02
13.28
13.fl8
16.21
13.46
14.01
16.19
13*71
13*65
14*48
13*47
13.62
15.24
13*28
13^75
15*96
13*46
14.01
16*19
13*46
14.01
16.19
1957..
1958. .
1959,.
16.35
16.74
16.24
16.40
16.67
16.31
16.52
16.68
16.36
16.56
16.61
16.45
16.72
16.50
16.52
16.78
16.42
16.47
16.89
16.28
16.50
16.92
16.13
16.59
16.88
16.11
16.63
16*86
16.11
16*70
16.74
16.24
16.81
16.75
16.25
17.00
16*92
16.68
16*36
16.78
16*42
16.47
16. as
16. 11
16J63
16.75
16.25
17*00
16^75
16*25
17*00
1960. .
1961..
1962.,
17.23
18.49
18.97
17.45
18.62
18.94
17.68
18.62
19.03
L7.83
18.73
19.04
18.03
18.72
19.25
18.23
18.76
19.43
18.38
18.67
19.58
18.37
18.81
19.71
18.50
18.71
19.85
18.55
18.94
19*92
18.57
18.96
19.91
18.54
18.83
20.06
17.68
18.62
19*03
18.23
18*76
19*43
18*50
18*71
19J85
18*54
18.63
20.06
18*54
16*83
20*06
1963..
1964..
1965..
19.98
20.64
21.61
20.01
20.76
21.66
19.98
20.85
21.74
19.90
20.97
21.58
20.00
21.03
21,68
20.23
21.01
21.81
20.12
21.07
21.94
20.28
21.09
21.96
20.42
21.06
22.08
20.42
21.26
22*15
20.54
21.36
22.28
20.62
21.49
22,45
19*98
20*85
21*74
20*23
21*01
21*81
20,42
21.06
22^08
20*62
21*49
22*45
20*62
21*49
22*45
1966..
22.65
22.78
22.94
23.04
23.33
23.58
23.82
24.01
24.28
24.47
24.83
25.14
22.94
23.58
24.28
25*14
25*14
NOTE: The series on this page are revised from 1961 to date and where available, data not previously shown for 194-5 through 1947 have been added.
SEPTEMBER 1966
73
F. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
Thin appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published i n this iappendix for (a)
new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See tlie Index, Series
Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless th(i8pbol<&)(indicatingunadiusteddata)
follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from monthly date with more digits or *rom data which
have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from monthly data presented herein.
Ktonthly
Quarterly
Annual
Year
Jan.
B9A.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
excess or RECEIPTS (+) OR PAYMENTS (-)
LIQUIDITY BALANCE BASIS
Aug.
IN u.s.
Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
BALANCE or PAYMENTS —
II Q
IV Q
III Q
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
(MILLION DOLLARS )
• **
19^5, .
..
1947. .
1948. .
1 949. *
19§0* .
-42?
-641
1 9 i> 3 » .
-771
38JL
— 66!>
**
*
-J 1 761
-660
— 3r489
-33
-427
— 433
311
™717
620
485
-443
—466
~8
— 1»I206
—2^184
-371
40
— 516
-173
— 470
_20Q
-479
™* 3 ? 1
—386
-519
— 489
1 S7
-It 541
— 1 *?&?
—973
1 M% 7 « .
54'i
-65?
147
— 891
387
—6*9
—499
—963
578
-3*365
-3» 870
I960,, .
1961 » .
-838
-529
-807
-850
64
-318
~I » Q 1 0
—'TIS
-4^7
-1,219
-307
-782
-1»164
— 5701
256
-630
~93
1954* .
1 9 9 6« .
1965* .
898. EXCESS OF RECEIPTS (+) OR PAYMENTS (-) IN U.S.
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS-OFFICIAL SETTLEMENTS BASIS (MILLION DOLLARS)
~li 203
—1+191
-642
-3^901
— 2r371
-2t 204
"212
™'6'i8
""603
—65
-"It 285
—206
— 2r670
-2^800
— 1^335
™ 3Cll
—333
—1*357
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
• •.
» .*
* **
.
• •.
...
* /•
*«•
j
J
4! »
<i »
i
f
!' *
*
• *.
..*
...
* **
*
• 4•
NOTK:
— 327
— 803
—419
~*634
670
— 324
— 1 > 100
— 279
— 783
Q Q (A
"341
^?ft
409
ll/i
— 1 * 007
•" 9't8
"It O't9
""^435
•**666
—910
—3*403
1 J A,
— 9 ft 1 t
*°3UO
"*56'4
— 1 ' "iftti
'M
— fl& Tf
A<I7
UQ
^« 1 *l 7
<
—1
—2
F
1&7
70?
The oerieu on thifl page I$eoi$orat6 periodic revisions (beginning with the first date shown) not previously published in thiw ngprrmix.
SEPTEMBER 1968
74
F. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a)
new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for.a long period of time. See the Index, Series
Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless thesymbol(g)(mdicatingunadjusteddata)
follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from monthly data with more digits or from data which
nave not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from monthly data presented herein.
Monthly
Quarterly
Annual
Yea
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
96.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
MANUFACTURERS* UNFILLED ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
( B I L L I O N DOLLARS)
I1IQ
IV Q
END OF PERIOD VALUE
.1.
. *,
31.49
1945* .
1946. .
1947..
31.83
31.66
31.49
31.07
30.72
30.32
29.56
29.06
29.05
28.56
28.52
28.58
1948..
1949..
1950..
28.25
25.63
20.20
27.96
24.78
20.56
27.81
23.82
20.97
27.82
22.52
21,43
27.49
21.42
21,86
28.22
20.18
22.63
28.58
19.30
24.96
28.80
18.89
28.87
28.53
18.59
31.06
28.09
18.93
33^03
27.48
19.36
34.14
26.62
19.62
35.44
27. ai
1951..
1952..
1953..
40.84
63.99
74.41
44.56
63.98
74.83
48.47
65.95
74.03
51.77
68.13
73.51
54.20
68.34
73.42
56.80
71,06
72.89
59.04
72.87
70.71
60.01
73.52
68.46
60.81
74.37
64.97
62.13
73.80
62.43
62,94
73,16
60.58
1954..
1955..
1956..
56.18
46.03
57.55
54.49
46.65
57.78
52.00
47.84
58.19
50.17
48.20
59.41
48.38
48.54
59.96
46.71
49.10
60.22
45.52
49.91
61.70
44.52
50.56
63.60
44.82
51.74
63.72
46 . 13 45.31
54.37
53.21
63.56 63.81
1957..
1958..
1959..
63.63
48.32
46.61
63.61
46.92
48.03
62.74
46.25
48. 86
61.88
45.46
49.62
61.24
45,14
49.18
59.99
45.05
49.09
58.26
45.15
48.96
56.56
44.94
48.96
5 5 . 15 53.24
44.72 45.11
49.86 50.96
I960..
1961..
1962..
49.25
43.02
45.72
48.25
42.95
46.04
46.87
42.61
45.41
45.93
42.90
44.81
45.16
43.09
44.45
44.74
43.27
44.13
44,18
43.59
43.93
44,51
44.07
43.52
44.64
44.18
43.37
1963..
1964..
1965..
45,33
48.64
57.05
46.23
48.86
57.72
47.36
49.21
58,04
47.92
49.87
58.93
48.62
50.64
59.45
48.19
51.56
59.99
47.95
52.81
60.35
48.02
53.12
60.83
1966..
66.43
67.75
69.58
71.12
72.14
73.52
74,83
75.44
99.
II Q
**.
30i32
29i05
, i,
28.58
28.58
23.82
20.97
28.22
20.18
22.63
28.53
18*59
31.06
26.62
19.62
35.44
26.62
19.62
35.44
63.39
72.68
58.64
48.47
65.95
74.03
56.80
71.06
72.89
60.91
74.37
64*97
63.39
72.68
58.64
63.39
72.68
58.64
45.25
56.24
63.88
52.00
47.84
58.19
46.71
49*10
60.22
44.82
5U74
63*72
45*25
56.24
63.88
45.25
56.24
63.88
51,79
45.75
50.96
50.35
45.74
50.65
62.74
46.25
48.86
59.99
45.05
49.09
55.15
44*72
49.86
50.35
45.74
50.65
50.35
45.74
50.65
43,89
44,36
43.62
43.59
44.74
43.45
43.40
45.34
44.53
46.87
42.61
45.41
44.74
43.27
44.13
44.64
44.18
43.37
43 . 40
45.34
44.53
43.40
45.34
44.53
48.34
53.64
61.76
48.33
54.79
62.78
48.34
55,16
63.79
47.98
55.65
64.98
47.36
49.21
58.04
48,19
51.56
59.99
48.34
53.84
61*76
47.98
55.65
64.98
47.98
55.65
64.98
77.26
77.82
77.73
77.99
69.58
73.52
77*26
77.99
77.99
NEW ORDERS, DEFENSE PRODUCTS INDUSTRIES
( B I L L I O N DOLLARS)
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
1945. .
1946. .
1947..
.4.
* *1
* *•
...
• *•
.i.
* J,
* **
.;.
» .*
1948. .
1949. .
1950. .
.. i
».4
* .
.4«
.I.
.4.
. j.
...
* •»
1951. .
1952. .
1953..
• * 1.
. *.
..*
2.17
2.51
1 . 59
1.56
2,06
2.04
1.04
1.01
0.83
1.54
1.09
1.43
6.27
5.66
* ..
**.
2.88
4.06
18*.87
1954..
1955..
1956..
1.51
1,13
2.06
1.31
1.42
1.38
1.06
1.20
1.62
1.39
0.88
1.94
1.10
1.42
1,67
1.08
1.46
1.94
1.48
1.32
1.85
1,25
1.32
4.45
1.85
2.08
1.78
2.52
2.18
1.46
0.58
1.52
1.78
1.21
2.22
1.86
3.88
3.75
5.06
3.57
3.76
5.55
4.58
4.72
8*08
4.31
5.92
5.10
16.34
18.15
23.79
1957..
1958..
1959..
1.54
1.06
1.51
1.59
1.39
1.35
1.52
2.59
1.74
1.33
1.35
2.07
1,78
1,56
1.77
1.34
1.82
1.97
0.97
1.98
l.,66
1.43
1.55
1.54
1.06
1.10
1.72
0.98
1.79
1.98
2.15
2.17
1.74
1.90
1.33
1.57
4.65
5.04
4.60
4.45
4.73
5.81
3.46
4.63
4.92
5.03
5.29
5.29
17.59
19.69
20.62
I960..
1961..
1962,.
1.50
1.70.
1.98
1.49
2.17
2.11
2.19
1.41
2.03
1.55
1.96
2.25
1,94
1.84
2.09
2.08
1,74
2.12
1.95
1.94
1.89
2.11
2.00
1.99
2.27
2.03
2.00
1.36
2.06
2.26
1.98
1.90
1.94
1.66
2,08
3.08
5.18
5.28
6.12
5.57
5.54
6.46
6.33
5*97
5.88
5.00
6.04
7.28
22.08
22.83
25,74
1963..
1964..
1965..
2.49
2.51
2.34
2.57
2.40
2.49
2.56
2.1.5
2.32
1.95
2.38
3.14
2.50
2.37
2.38
2.18
2.25
2.49
2.36
2.91
2.54
2.51
1.84
2.81
2.58
1,89
3.16
2.16
2.42
3.02
2.20
2.02
2.85
1.75
2.26
2.64
7.62
7.06
7.15
6.63
7*00
a. 01
7*45
6.64
8,61
6.11
6.70
8. 51
27.81
27.40
32.18
1966..
3.34
2.92
3.06
3.23
2,90
3,36
3.34
3.14
4.25
3.12
3.C9
3,55
9.32
9.49
10.73
9.76
39.30
NOTE:
The series on this page are revised from 1961 to date.
.i,
SEPTEMBER 1968
75
F. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 oHo the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Date <ire piblished inthis appendix for (a)
new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically fora long ?eri(ni of time. See the Index, Series
Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are s?iown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless thesytnbol^findtcatingunadjusteddata)
follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from monthly <lat3 with more digits or from data which
have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from monthly data presented herein.
Monthly
Quarterly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept
Oct.
NOV.
Dec.
IQ
503. MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT SALES AND BUSINESS CONSTRUCTION EXPENDITURES
II) Q
IV Q
AVEftAOE FOI* PERIOD
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLION DOLLARS)
.4 *
•4 .
** •
.4.
1949..
II Q
.it
• «i.
*4.
...
.44
*-4*
*J4
4i 4
41.
• *<*
4**
**4
*4.
**>.
.*J
.* J
44,1
*4<t
4 J.
i J*
4 \*
J U
. U
*J*
* J*
4 J.
4*.
4.*
• ..
J..
4..
*.*
1953*.
33.49
33.85
33.28
34.04
33.70
32.31
32.82
31.30
31.39
31.93
31.02
30.46
*4•
«J.
33*94
33*3!f
<H.
*• 1 *
31*1)4
1954..
1955..
1956..
31.49
29.70
34.51
30.46
31.14
35.07
29.39
31.75
35.56
28.90
31.60
38.02
26.48
32.37
38.51
28.27
32.82
39.99
29.26
32.26
39.50
28.29
33.24
39.51
28.36
34.21
39.34
27.34
34.20
4Q.62
28.22
34*29
41.84
29.06
34.93
42.51
30*45
30.86
35*05
28.5'i
32*26
38*84
284ii4
334i>4
39J45
2flm
34.91
41466
28196
32.72
3647$
1957..
1958..
1959..
41.77
38.04
36.71
42.65
36.64
37.56
41.47
36.47
37.99
41.29
35.24
38.39
40.89
34.63
39.50
40.68
35.45
39.79
39.99
34.32
41.31
41.24
35.16
40.24
40.39
35.26
40.74
40.62
35.07
40*50
40.01
36.04
40.17
38.09
35.74
41.06
41*96
37.05
37*42
40*93
35.lt
39.23
*Q«!I4
34.i)l
40476
39*97
35*62
40. S8
40*76
35467
39450
I960..
1961..
1962..
41.00
40.61
42.39
40.62
40.80
43.52
41.20
40.28
44.23
41.62
40.42
44.84
41.92
40.07
45.53
41.59
40.58
45.63
42.53
39.90
44.78
40.26
41.69
45.91
41.31
42.16
45.32
40*97
42.60
45.04
40.65
42.91
45.25
41*08
43.16
44.09
40*94
40.36
43i38
41*71
40*36
45*33
U, 17
V1J<»5
4$4<I4
40*90
42490
44*79
41*23
41427
44.71
1963..
1964..
1965..
44.30
50.24
57.55
45.20
50.13
58.32
44,75
50,59
60.15
46.23
51.37
60.84
46.98
52.72
60.84
46.57
53.31
60.81
47.38
55.47
61.78
47.71
53.89
61.62
48.17
54.65
63.76
46.86
55.19
64.96
48.58
55.73
66.39
48.59
57.04
68*44
44.75
50i 3 2
58*67
46*59
52*47
60483
474ir5
54.67
62*1)9
48468
55.99
66(60
46.94
53*36
62412
1966..
68.91
68.68
70.97
70.80
70.65
72.04
72.95
74.57
74.99
75*81
74.72
75.02
69*52
71*16
74-117
75*18
72*51
RATIO
UNFILLED ORDERS TO SHIPMENTS, MANUFACTURERS* DURABLE GOODS
(RATIO)
852 >
4 4 .1
*J.
4J*
31.14
4..
4k*
32*47
AVERAGE; roit PERIOD
* .u
» *.
• 4•
.*»
.*.
.* t
4 «<*
*^«
* J«
• *»
.*'„
.4»
* J»
.4.
.44
4li
*44
444
. *«
JJ.
J J.
*•*.
* J.
« *u
* J*
J*.
<I4.
J4.
tJ
44
.J
4*.
4*.
4*.
4 .*
4 * •
4..
1953,,.
6.19
6.05
6.01
5.87
5.91
6.07
5.67
5.73
5.55
S.37
5.50
5.46
6*08
.44
5*95
44.
J J*
5.65
4J
4J
)i44
5478
1954,.
1955,,.
1956.,.
5.11
4.05
4.43
5.04
4.03
4.50
4.89
4.02
4.54
4.72
3.99
4.51
4.66
4.01
4.57
4.50
3.96
4.52
4.31
4.12
5.36
4.38
4.12
4.92
4.39
4.09
4.74
4.49
4.23
4.60
4.28
4.22
4.40
4.11
4.2T
4.S5
5*01
4*01*
4.49
4.63
3*99
4*53
4436
4J11
SJ01
4*29
4424
4456
4457
4*09
4*65
1957..
1958*.
1959*.
4.57
3.69
3. SI
4.56
3.93
3.45
4.54
3.98
3.47
4.57
3.96
3.39
4.53
3.91
3.29
4.37
3.76
3.28
4.29
3.74
3.42
4.10
3.61
3.79
4.14
3.51
3.83
3.93
3.48
3.93
3.92
3.50
3.81
4*00
3.49
3.44
4.96
3.93
3*48
4*49
3*88
3-32
4*<18
3*62
3-6fl
3*95
3i49
3473
4429
3473
3*59
I960..
196K.
1962...
3.31
3.30
3.03
3.30
3.30
3.03
3.24
3.20
2.91
3.23
3.18
2.90
3.20
3.13
2.91
3.19
3.08
2.92
3.11
3.19
2.95
3.29
3.08
2.85
3.23
3.06
2.87
3*25
3.05
2.87
3.27
3.C4
2.81
3.21
3.02
2.96
3423
3.27
2*99
3*21
3.13
2*91
3*21
3,11
2,«9
3.24
3,04
2*86
3424
3*14
2*92
1963. .
1964. .
1965. .
2.98
2.86
3.05
2.94
2.88
3.08
3.02
2.93
3.01
3.01
2.90
3.03
3.00
2.94
3.12
2.93
2.98
3.10
2.86
2.97
3.04
2.91
3.04
3.07
2.96
3.00
3.13
2.89
3.04
3.15
2.S4
3.07
3.13
2.89
2.99
3.13
2.98
2.89
3* OS
2*98
2.94
3*oa
2491
3400
3^08
2*91
3*03
3*14
2*94
2*97
3*09
1966. .
3.17
3.20
3.22
3.27
3.30
3.34
3.40
3.37
3.41
3*42
3.47
3.50
3*20
3.30
3^39
3446
3*34
NOTE:
76
The oeries on this page are revised from 1961 to date.
.4*
*..
SEPTEMBER 1968
F. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a)
new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series
Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ©(indicating unadjusted data)
follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from monthly data with more digits or from data which
have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from monthly data presented herein.
Monthly
Quarterly
Year
Annual
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov. Dec.
IQ
858. OUTPUT PER MAN-HOUR, TOTAL PRIVATE NONFARM
. . . „ ; .
(1957-59=400;)- .
;
II Q
III Q
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1945. .
.*•
.4.
.4•
*.•
1947. .
72 1 5
74.4
7445
75; 3
74.2
1948. *
73^3
78 J 3
83.2
76*3
79iO
83.8
7618
8047
8Sj2
77^4
79J8
S546
76.4
79.4
84.4
1952. .
84.6
87;1
88.'8
85*2
86.5
89*6
8745
8646
8949
87,16
87J7
8948
86*2
87.0
89.5
1955..
90.1
94.9
94. - 4
90i9
95.9
95.1
9243
9643
gsa
9249
95J6
95J8
91.6
95.7
95.1
1957. .
1958. .
1959. .
96^7
97*1
102J5
96..8
99*0
10345
9747
10046
1024?
97J9
10U9
103J7
97.3
99.6
103.1
1962 . .
105.a
104.3
110,6
104.3
107.1
111*1
10349
10348
11249
10443
109*7
11449
104.4
107.5
112.4
114.4
119J2
121J6
114*8
119.9
122.6
11644
12049
12443
117J5
12QJ2
125J8
115.8
120.0
123.6
127.3
127*2
12745
128J7
127.7
19 '30. .
1963. .
NOTE:
The series on this page is revised from 1965 to date.
SEPTEMBER 1968
77
G. Descriptions and Sources of Series
6, 24, 25, 96, and 99. Manufacturers' New
Orders. Durable Goods
and
Unfilled
These data measure the volume, in current dollars, of (1)
the monthly net new order$ received by all durable goods
manufacturers (series 6), manufacturers' new orders of
machinery and equipment (series 24), and manufacturers'
new orders of defense products (series 99); and (2) the endof-month orders backlogs of durable goods manufacturers
(series 96) and change in these backlogs (series 25).
NEW ORDERS,—A new order is a communication of an
intention to buy for immediate or future delivery. Only
orders supported by binding legal documents (such as signed
contracts, letters of intent, or letters of award) are included.
The monthly series includes all new orders received during
the month less cancellations. Reporting companies are
instructed to include (1) the sales value of orders for goods
to be delivered at some future date (primarily this is for
manufacturers who produce to specifications); (2) the sales
value of orders for immediate delivery which have resulted
in sales during the reporting period; and (3) the net sales
value of contract change documents which increase or
decrease the sales value of the orders to which they are
related if the parties are in substantial agreement on the
amount involved. Reporting companies are instructed to
deduct from the total of these items, the sum of partial or
complete cancellations on existing orders. The monthly
series on net new orders received is derived by adding the
change in unfilled orders (series 25) to the estimate for
shipments during the period.
Series 6, Value of Manufacturers' New orders, Durable
Goods Industries, is a measure of the value of net new
orders, as defined above, received by manufacturers in
durable goods industries,
Series 24, Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Machinery
and Equipment Industries, measures the value of new orders
received by a subgroup of durable goods manufacturers,
specifically manufacturers in the following categories:
(1) Nonelectrical machinery--including steam engines and
turbines; internal combustion engines; construction,
mining, and material handling equipment; metalworking
machinery; special industry equipment; general industry
equipment; office and store machines; service industry
machinery; and miscellaneous nonelectrical equipment
(farm machinery and equipment and machine shops are
excluded); (2) electrical machinery--including electrical
transmission and distribution equipment, electrical
industrial apparatus, and other electrical machinery
(household appliances, communication equipment, and
electronic components are excluded); and (3) shipbuilding
and railroad equipment.
Series 99, New Orders, Defense Products Industries,
measures the value of new orders received by a second
subgroup of durable goods manufacturers--manufacturers
of communication equipment, complete aircraft, aircraft
parts, and ordnance. The figures include new orders for
all products of manufacturers in these industries, not only
defense products. They exclude, however, orders for
defense-related products received by other industries,
such as shipbuilding. Beginning in August 1968, a new
series on defense products is available. This differs from
the old in that manufacturers in the above-mentioned
industry groups (aircraft, communication, and ordnance)
provide a separate breakdown of their orders for Defense
Department work, and the defense orders of the shipbuilding industries are also included. Inasmuch as there
78
are insufficient data to provide seasonal factors for the
"defense products" component of each of the industries,
the seasonal factors of the total activity in each industry
have been used.
UNFILLED ORDERS.—Unfilled orders are orders received
that have not yet passed through the sales account; that is,
unfilled orders at the end of the reporting period are equal
to unfilled orders at the beginning of the period, plus net new
orders received during the period, minus net sales.
Series 25, Change in Manufactu^rs* ..U_nfillgd_,Orders,
Durable Goods Industries, measures the month-to-month
change in the dollar volume of orders backlogs of durable
goods manufacturers at the end of the period; that is, the
absolute difference between orders backlogs at the end of
the current month and the end of the previous month.
Series 96, Manufacturers' Unfilled Orders, Durable Goods
Industries, measures the dollar ^valueoF durable goods
manufacturers' orders backlogs as ol: the end of the month.
Data are collected from a subsample of the Annual Survey
of Manufactures.
The sample is designed to provide
estimates for broad industry categories and to permit
supplementary presentation of data by market groupings.
Virtually all manufacturers with 1,000 or more employees
are included. In addition, data are collected from a sample
of smaller companies within each industry category.
Adjustments for trading days, length of calendar month,
and seasonal variation are made by the source agency.
(Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census.)
10. Contracts and Orders for Plant and Equipment
This series measures the dollar value of new contract
awards to building and public works and utilities contractors
and of new orders received by manufacturers in heavy
machinery and equipment industries. It is the sum of (1)
value of commercial and industrial contracts, (2) value of
privately owned public works and utilities contracts, and
(3) value of manufacturers', new orders, machinery and
equipment industries (series 24).
Data on value of commercial and industrial construction
contracts measure the value of contracts for work about to
get underway on commercial building (banks, offices and
lofts, stores, warehouses, garages, service stations), and
manufacturing buildings (e.g., processing, mechanical). Since
January 1956, theaters have been excluded and some nonindustrial warehouses have been included.
The value of privately owned public works and utilities
contracts component measures the value of public works, and
utilities contracts awarded by private individuals and agencies.
It includes contracts for the following types of construction:
(1) Public works—streets and highways, bridges, dams and
reservoirs, waterfront developments, sewerage systems,
parks and playgrounds, etc.; and (2) public utilities--electric
tight and power, gas plants and mains, pipe lines (oil and gas
wells), water supply systems, railroad construction, airports
(excluding buildings), etc.
The construction contracts data are compiled by McGrawHill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Seasonal adjustments are made by the Census Bureau.
G. Descriptions and Sources of Series-Continued
The third component of this series, manufacturers' new
orders, machinery and equipment industries (series 24), is
defined elsewhere in this appendix. (See description for
"manufacturers' new and unfilled orders, durable goods."
(Source: McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company,
F. W. Dodge Division; and U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census.)
20. Change in Book Value of Manufacturers' Inventories of
Materials and Supplies
65. Book Value of Manufacturers' Inventories of Finished
Goods, All Manufacturing Industries
These data measure the book value of manufacturers'
stocks on hand at the end of the month. Data on manufacturers'
inventories are collected from the same sample of manufacturers and in the same survey as are data on manufacturers' new and unfilled orders. (See description.)
Inventories are valued at current cost, if feasible, otherwise
at book values. Inventories associated with the nonmanufacturing activities of a company are excluded.
Materials and supplies inventories include all raw and
semifabricated commodities and supplies to which the company
has title (whether located in factories, in transit, in warehouses, etc.), but on which no processing has been started.
Series 20 measures the change, at annual rate, in book value
of materials and supplies inventories at the end of the current
month compared to those held at the end of the previous month.
Finished goods inventories (series 65) include all products
on which the companies have completed processing and which
are ready for shipment to customers. Also included are
stocks of goods bought for resale without further processing.
Data are adjusted for trading days, length of calendar
month, and seasonal variation by the source agency. (Source:
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.)
89. U.S. Balance of Payments
This series presents statistics on the U.S. international
balance of payments, measured in dollars, on two bases:
(1) The liquidity balance basis, and (2) the official reserve
transactions basis.
The balance of payments is a summary of the economic
transactions between residents of the United States and the
rest of the world.
The balance on .liquidity basis (series 89a) is measured by
the increase in U.S. official reserve assets, plus the decrease
in Government and private liquid liabilities to all foreign
accounts, while the balance on basis of official reserve
transactions (series 89b) is measured by the increase in U.S.
official reserve assets, plus the decrease in Government and
private liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign
official agencies. (Official agencies include central banking
institutions as well as other official monetary agencies.)
U.S. official reserve assets consist of monetary gold stock,
convertible currency holdings by U.S. monetary authorities,
and the U. S. gold tranche position in the International
Monetary Fund. The various forms of liquid liabilities have
been noted above. Nonliquid liabilities to foreign official
agencies are in forms such as government agency bonds,
nonmarketable medium-term securities redeemable only
under special conditions, medium-term certificates of deposit
issued by U.S. private banks, other long-term claims by
foreign official agencies on U.S. private banks and nonbarik
organizations.
Data included in balance of payments compilations ate
derived from a variety of sources, including merchandise
import and export data from the Bureau of the Census (with
certain adjustments for valuation, coverage, and timing);
reports by U.S. companies with branches or subsidiaries
abroad and by branches and subsidiaries of foreign companies
in the United States; reports from U.S. Government agencies
on their foreign transactions, including grants, loans, and
liabilities; reports from U.S. travelers on their expenditures
abroad and from foreign travelers on their expenditures in
the United States, together with travel statistics of the
Immigration and Naturalization Service; reports by banks
and brokers to the Treasury Department on international
claims and liabilities, and transactions in securities; and
questionnaire surveys of the Office of Business Economics
of various types of service transactions and private
remittances.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. (Source:
U.S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.)
505. Machinery and Equipment Sales and Business Construction Expenditures.
This series represents the aggregate dollar value, at
annual rate, of (1) manufacturers* shipments (sales) of
machinery and equipment and (2) new nonresidential
construction put in place for private industrial and commercial use.
The manufacturers' shipments component of this series
includes the following industry categories: (1) Nonelectrical
machinery—including steam engines and turbines; internal
combustion engines; construction, mining, and material
handling equipment; metalworking machinery; special industry
equipment; general industry equipment; office and store
machines; service industry machinery; and miscellaneous
nonelectrical equipment (farm machinery and equipment and
machine shops are excluded); (2) electrical machinery—
including electrical transmission and distribution equipment,
electrical industrial apparatus, and other electrical machinery
(household appliances, communication equipment, and electronic components are excluded); and (3) shipbuilding and
railroad equipment.
The term "shipments" represents manufacturers' receipts,
billings, or the value of products shipped, less discounts,
returns, and allowances. Shipments for export as well as
for domestic use are included as are shipments by domestic
firms to foreign subsidiaries. Shipments of foreign subsidiaries are excluded. Data on shipments are collected
from the same sample of manufacturers and in the same
survey as are data on manufacturers' new and unfilled
orders. (See description.)
The other .component of this series, value of industrial
and commercial construction put in place, is based on
monthly progress reports obtained from owners of projects
in the 37 eastern States. National estimates are derived
through the inflation of the progress reporting data by factors
representing the relationship between construction contract
awards in the U.S. to construction contract awards in the 37
eastern States. The 37 eastern States are those east of the
Rocky Mountains.
79
G. Descriptions and Sources of Series-Continued
The components are seasonally adjusted by the source
agency and, when aggregated, yield a seasonally adjusted
total. (Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census.)
852. Ratio, Unfilled Orders to Shipments, Manufacturers'
"Durable Goods
This series measures the end-of-month dollar value of the
backlog of orders for durable goods received by manufacturers
to the dollar value of manufacturers' shipments of durable
goods during the month.
The unfilled orders component of this series is defined in
the description for Manufacturers' New and Unfilled Orders,
Durable Goods.
The value of manufacturers' shipments (sales) of durable
goods includes receipts, billings, or the value of products
80
shipped, less discounts, returns, and allowances. Shipments
for export as well as for domestic use are included as are
shipments by domestic firms to foreign subsidiaries. Shipments of foreign subsidiaries are excluded.
Data on manufacturers' shipments are collected from the
same sample of manufacturers and in the same survey as are
data on manufacturers' new and unfilled orders, (See
description.)
In computing the unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio, it is
necessary to subtract from the value of total durable shipments the value of shipments by those durable goods industries
(metal containers; wooden containers; metal cans, barrels,
and drums; and motor vehicle assembly operations) which
have no unfilled orders backlogs.
Both components are adjusted for trading clays, length of
calendar month, and seasonal variation by the source agency.
(Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census.)
INDEX
Series Finding Guide
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
c o
o
Series titles by economic process and other groupings
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
P¥
3
= «j
Q.
Tables
p. TJO. )
TO
*1 Avg workweek production workers mfg *
*30. Nonagncultural placements, all industries ....
**
511. Man-hours In nonagf i. establishments ........
*43 Unemployment rate total
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State
—
Lg
9
9
9
9
9
17
17
6, 33
6, 33
6,, 33
6, 33
6, 33
7, 38
7,' 38
17
17
17
18
18
1822
7,
7,
7,
7,
7,
7,
7,
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
June '68
Aug.
Apr.
Aug.
Apr.
Aug.
Feb.
38 Aug. '68
'68
38 Aug.
38 'Feb. '68
38 Feb. '68
38 Dec. '67
38 Feb. '68
41 Feb. '68
Aug.
'68
Aug.
'68
Aug.
'68
Afi fiNP in riirrpnt rlnllarc
*50, GNP in 1958 dollars
*i7 Inrlnctft al nrfirtiirtinn
*52, Personal income
,
53, Wages and salaries, mining, mfg. constr.
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales
Final «alp<
*54. Safes of retail stores
Aug.
Aug.
'68
'68
C
C
C
c
c
c
c
c
18
18
18
19
19
19
19
19
7,
7,
7,
7,
7,
7,
7,
7,
39 July '68
39 July '68
39 Dec.
'67
39 July '68
39 July '68
39 • Apr. '67
39 July '68
39 May '68
July '68
July '68
July '68
July '68
July '68
o.
2! llfl
Sv
-.£
L
L
L
*6. New orders, durable goods industries
94. Construction contracts, value ............. L
*10, Contracts and orders, plant and equipment — L
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing — L
L
10
10
10
10
10
9. Construction contractst comfn. and industrial . .L
L
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
L
*29 New bui Idiot? permits orivate housins
C
C
97 Backlog of caoital aDoroDriations mfs
*61. Bus. expenditures, new plant and equipment . . g
505. Mach. and equip, sales and bus. constr. expend. F
Lg
11
11
11
*38. Index of net business formation
11
11
20
20
22
22
6,
6,
6,
6,
6,
6,
6,
33
33
34
34
34
34
34
Apr. '68
Mar. »68*
Sept. '68
6,
6,
6,
7,
7,
7,
7,
34
34
34
40
40
41
41
May '67
May '68
June '68
Sept. '68
Aug.
'67
Apr. '68
Sept. '68
Sept. '68
Aug. '67
Sept. '68
Sept. '68
Sept. '68
Rcnvh
' f\R '
Sept. '68
Sept. '68
IV, INVENTORIES AND
INVENTORY INVESTMENT
21. Change in business inventories
*31. Change, mfg. and trade inventories
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
12
12
12
12
12
13
32 Vendor performance slower deliveries
13
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods
22
65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value . H
Lg 22
6,
6,
6,
6,
6,
6,
6,
7,
7,
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
41
41
£
Tables
(P. No.)
Historical
Series
data
description
(issue date) (issue date)
0
Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate .
Profits per dollar of sales mfg.
Ratio orice to unit labor cost mfc
* *• *
Wholesale price index, industrial commodities..
Wholesale price index, manufactured goods —
23
23
24
8, 42
8, 42
8, 43
July '68
July '67
May '68
98.
85.
33
*113.
11?.
110.
Change, money supply and time deposits — L
L
Change, money supply
L
Change mortgage debt
Change, consumer installment debt
.... L
L
Change, business loans
L
Total private borrowing
15
15
15
15
15
16
6,
6,
6,
6,
6,
6,
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.
Dec.
Apr.
Mar.
'68
'68
'67
'67
'67
'68
L
16
6/37
Mar.
'68
L
C
C
C
16
21
21
21
6,
7,
7,
7,
37
40
40
40
Apr. '67
Jan.
'68
Apr. '68
21
21
23
I"8 23
L*
8 23
h
Lg 23
7,
7,
8,
8,
8,
8,
40
40
42'
42
42
42
Jan.
Jan.
Dec.
Apr.
Jan.
Jan.
14 Liabilities of business failures
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans,
30 days and over
93. Free reserves *
114 Treasury bill rate
116. Corporate bond yields
115.
117.
66.
*72.
*67.
118,
6,
6,
48
6,
6,
6,
6,
7,
7,
36
36
July '68
July '68
L
L
L
L
L
L
L
C
C
13
13
32
14
14
14
14
20
20
36
36'
36
36
40
40
.
Sept. '68
'68
'68
Sept. '68
Apr. '67
Sept. '68
Sept. '68
Mar.
Jan.
'67
'68
'67
July '68
July '68
Apr. '67
July '67
May '68
May '68
H
\f
C
C
Treasury bond yields
Municipal bond yields
Consumer installment debt
Comm. and indus. loans outstanding
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Mortgage yields, residential
July '68
Sept. '68
Sept. '68
Dec.
Mar.
Oct.
July '68
July '68
37
37
37
37
37
37
June '68
'68
'68
'67
'67
'68
'68
Aug.
Aug.
'68
'68
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
July »64
July '64
July '64
July '64
FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments:
a. Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis
88. Merchandise trade balance
86. Exports, excluding military aid
361. Export orders, durable goods, except
motor vehicles
362. Export orders, nonelectric machinery
U
, U
U
U
24 '• 8, 43
24 8, 43
24 8, 43
25 8, 43
June '67
Sept. »68 Sept. »68
Sept. '68 Sept. '68
Apr. '67
U
U
U
25
25
25
8, 43
8, 43
8, 43
Aug.
Apr.
Apr.
'68
'67
'67
Aug.
'68
Fed. balance, nat'l. income and prod, acct, . . U
Fed. receipts, nat'L income and prod, acct . . U
Fed. expend,, nat'l. income and prod. acct. . . .U
National defense purchases, current dollars - . U
26
26
26
27
8, 44
8, 44
8, 44
July
July
July
July
'68
'68
'68
'68
July
July
July
July
'68
'68
'68
'68
U
U
U
U
27
27
27
27
8,
8,
8,
8,
44
44
44
44
Dec. '67
Sept. '68 Sept. '68
Mar. '68
Aug. '67
U
U
U
U
28
28
28
28
8,
8,
8,
8,
45
45
45
45
July '67
July '67
Sept. '68 Sept. '68
July '67
U
29
8, 45
July »68
U
U
29
29
8, 45
8, 45
Feb. '68
Sept. '68 Sept. '68
U
29
8, 45
June '68
June '68
U
U
29
29
8, 45
8, 45
June '68
Feb. '68
June »68
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
95.
951.
952.
101.
91 Defense Department obligations total
90 Defense Dept obligations procurement
99. New orders, defense products industries
Nov. '66
Mar. '68
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
*19. Stock prices, 500 c. stocks (1941-43-10)
19. Stock prices, 500 c. stocks (1957-59-100)
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
*62, Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . .
VII.
Ml. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
22.
18.
*17
55.
58.
i*'
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
C7
'•£
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROPITS-Contlniwd
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
301 Nonagri job openings unfilled
46 Help-wanted advertising *
•
c
Historical
Series
data
description Series titles by economic 'process and other groupings
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
(issue date) (issue date)
a, 44
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
AND ECONOMIC PROCESS
850.
851.
852.
853.
854.
Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing
Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade - • •
Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments dur. goods.
Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer goods Ratio, personal saving to disposable
855. Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled
to unernD loved
858. Output per man-hour,. total private nonfarm
856. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers,
mfg
859. Real spendable avg. wkly. earnings, nonagr.
prod, or nonsupv. workers (1957-59=100)
857 Vacancy rate total rental housing
July '68
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators. L - leading, C - roughly coincident, Lg= lagging, U « unclassified ("series unclassified bv cyclical timing,"
"seriesunclassifiedbycyclical timing and economic process," and "international comparisons").
81
Series Finding Guide-Continued
Series titles by economic process and other groupings
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
.1
8
I
•5
IS ?
§
.E«a
l-o
Historical
Series
Tables
description Series titles by economic process and other groupings
data
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
,(P- No.) (issue date) (issue date)
Canada, index of industrial production
United Kingdom, index of industrial production .
France, index of industrial production
West Germany, index of industrial production . .
Japan, index of industrial production . .
OI:CD- Europe, index of industrial production . .
Italy, index of industrial production
Canada, index of consumer prices
United Kingdom, index of consumer prices —
France, index of consumer prices
West Germany, index of consumer prices
Japan, index of consumer prices . . <
Italy, index of consumer prices . , . 4
Canada, index of stock prices
United Kingdom, index of stock prices
France index of stock prices
« *
Wost Germany, index of stock prices
Japan index of stock prices
4
Italy index of stock prices
«
la
0
DIFFUSION INDEXES
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
30
30
30,
30
30
30
30
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
July
Nov.
Nov.
June
Apr.
June
Nov.
'67
'67
'67
'68
'68
'68
'67
01 Average workweek
D6 New orders • *
Dll Capital appropriations
£
034. Profits, mfg.
D19. Stock prices
023. Industrial materials prices
M
'A
e>l
31
31
31
31
31
31
47
47
47
47
47
47
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
D5 Initial claims
D41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls
£
32
32
32
32
32
32
48
48
48
48
48
48
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.'
Oct.
Oct.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
jl
'>!
<-»!
r
D58. Wholesale prices, mfg,
D54. Retail sales
D35. Net sales, mfrs
036. New orders
048 Freight csrloadings
D61 New plant and equipment expenditures
!/*,
< S *,>3
!>8
,'4
Sopt. '68
Apr, <65
A\;g9 '67
">, ^
Get, '64
Apr. '62
Apr. '65
' f ' , bQ
-a
' L-)} bQ
'2
}?
'**, *'!•
< t > , 61
L
U » unclassified ("series unclassified by cyclical timing," "series unclassified by cyclical timing and economic process," and "international comparisons").
82
Historical
Series
Tables
desiriptu:
data
No.) (issue date) (issue dat
£ U>.
E CO I
B*iS
i-w
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
123.
122.
126.
125.
128*
121.
127.
133.
132.
136.
135.
138.
137.
143.
142.
146.
145.
148.
147.
14
8 &
<)?,
% u2
52
1
B
f £ ) , (&
f
I Ff
3
r
;^
^3
Kay '6§
Sept. '68
Apr, '63
Apr. '67
Apr. '65
Nov. '64
Nev. '64,
Nov. '64
Nev. '64
Sept. '
Sept. * i
Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order
"NT indicates monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series.
Data apply to the whole period except for series designated
by "EOM" (end of the month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The Roman numeral identifies the economic process group in
which a series is classified. (See Finding Guide.) Thus,
"(M, II)" indicates a monthly series classified in group II.
The general classification follows the approach of the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. The series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list"
of 25 indicators.
36 Leading Indicators
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing
(M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M,I).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M,l).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of
Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M,lll)."Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
7. New private nonfarm housing units started (M.lll).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M.lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M,IV).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (M,lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction (M,ll).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
*30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (IV1,1).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*54. Sales of retail stores (M,H).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
*31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M,IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, and Bureau of the Census
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
(IKI,IV.)..-Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and life insurance companies (W1,VI).-Institute of Life
Insurance, Federal National Mortgage Association,National
Association of Mutual Savings Banks, U.S. Savings and
Loan League, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials
(M,IV).--National Association of Purchasing Management;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (MJII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days
and over (EOM,VI).-American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since
December 1961)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (H,VI).--Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*18. Corporate profits after taxes (Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*17. Price per unit of labor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices
of manufactured goods index (unadjusted) to seasonally
adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages,
salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit
of output (IB,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
85. Percent change in total US. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M,VI),-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
94. Index of con struct! on contracts, total value (M,lll).~McGrawHill Information Systems Company
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M,VI):Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M,VI).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M,VI).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
25 Roughly Coincident Indicators
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q,V).-Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (Nl,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M,V).-Standard
and Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
*41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,establishment survey (M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of
materials and supplies (IV1,IV).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after
valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q,lV).--Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q,V).«Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M,V).=-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
*50. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q, 11).-Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*52. Personal income (MJI).-Department, of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
*38. Index of net business formation (M,lll).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
13. Number of new business incorporations (MJII).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q, 11).--Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer {IVl,IV).-Nationa1 Association of
purchasing Management; no seasonal adjustment
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M,lll).-McGraw-Mili Information
Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (Q,III}.-National Industrial Conference Board;
component industries are seasonally adjusted and added
to obtain seasonally adjusted total
*47. Index of industrial production (M,ll).-Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System
42. Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities, labor force survey (M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics,and Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M.D.-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the. Census
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M,V).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q,ll).-Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M,V).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (Ifl.VI).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System; no seasonal adjustment
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM.III),-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ.HI),National Industrial Conference Board; component industries
are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
no seasonal adjustment
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M,VI).-Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M,VI).-First National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (Hfl,VI).~Trie
Bond Buyer; no seasonal adjustment
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM,I). Department
of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
511. Man-hours in nonagricuttural establishments, \M,I}. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales (M,ll).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the
Census
11 Lagging Indicators
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total
(Q,lll).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M.V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods,
all manufacturing industries (EOM,IV).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM,VI).-Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted
net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous
month to obtain current figure
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M,l).~
National Industrial Conference Board
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
POSTAGE AND FEES P A I D
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING O F F I C E
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON, o,c. 20402
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes-Continued
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
862. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M,V|I).-McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
SB/Labor cast (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonf inane ial corporations (ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars) (Q,V).~Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, National Income Division
951. Federal Government receipts, national income and product
account (Q).-Department of Commerce,Office of Business
Economics
'"71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories, total
(EOM,IV),"Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics ana Bureau of the Census
'"72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reportIng large commercial banks (EOMtVI).-Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
118, Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages(M,V!).--Federal
Housing Administration; no seasonal adjustment
*502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M,l).-Department
of Laborv Bureau of Labor Statistics
505, Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (BI,MI).--Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
15 Series Unclassified by
Cyclical Timing
81. Index of consumer prices (M,V).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M,VII).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M,VII).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87)
(M,VII)."Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q,VII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
952. Federal expenditures, national income and product account
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
10 Series Unclassified by
Cyclical Timing
and Economic Process
861, Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (MfVM).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (A!).-Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal adjustment
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).«Statistisehes
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal adjustment
137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M).»lstituto Centra o di
Statistica(Rome); no seasonal adjustment
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (BCD series 96) to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods (M).-- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (iff),-Office of the Prime
Minister (Tokyo); no seasonal adjustment
. . . United States,, index of consumer prices (M,V).- See
Series 81
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (index: 1957-59 = 100) (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon
components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial
production.)
143. Canada, index of stock prices (M).--Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal adjustment
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (Q).Departmentof Commerce, Office of Business Economics
14!>. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).-Statistisehes
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal adjustment
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (BCD series
301) to number of persons unemployed (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security and Bureau of Labor
Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
856. Real average hourly earning:; of production workers in
manufacturing, 1957-59 dollars (M) — Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
146. France, index of stock prices (M).--lnstitut National do la
Statistique et dei; Etudes Economiques (Paris); no seasonal
adjustment
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing-unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q).-- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings of nonsupervisory production workers (with 3 dependents) on private nonagricuttural payrolls, 1957-59 dollars (M) —
101. Federal purchases of goods and services, national defense
(Q,VIII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
13;!. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).HVtinistry of
Labour (London); no seasonal adjustment
851. Ratio, inventories (BCD series 71) to sales (BCD series
816), manufacturing and trade total (M).-- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
91. Defense Department obligations incurred, total (M,VIII).~
Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
99. New orders, defense products industries (M,VIII).~Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
. . . United States, mlex of industrial production (M,ll).~S6e
series 47
136. France, index, of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut National de
la Statistique et de;i Etudes Economiques (Paris); no
seasonal adjustment
858. Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm (Q). Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
95. Federal Government surplus or deficit, national income
and product account (Q,.Vlll).-Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg. (Q).-Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and
McGraw-Hill Economics Department
90. Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement
(M,Vlll),~Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M,VIII).--Department of Defense, Directorate
for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M).--lstituto Centrala
di Statistica(Rome)
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
19 International Comparisons
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (IW).Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).--CentraI
Statistical Office (London)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).-Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
14!?. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M),»The Financial
Times (London); no seasonal adjustment
147. Italy, index of stock prices(M).--lstit()to Centrale di Statistica(Rome); no seasonal adjustment
148. Japan, index of stock prices (M).«Tokyo Stock Exchange
(Tokyo); no seasonal adjustment
. . . United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
(M,V).~$ee series 19
Diffusion Indexes
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index.
Diffusion indexes and corresponding business cycle series
bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources.
Soe sources above for Oil, D5, D6, Oil, D19, D23, 041, 1)47,
054, D58, and D6L Sources for other diffusion indexes are
as follows:
D34, Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City
Bank of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).~Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).-Statisttsches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonally adjusted by
OECD
D36. New orders, durable
manufactures (Q).--Oun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; noseasona 1 ! adjustment
126. France, index of industrial production (M).--lnstitut Natipnal
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
D4H. Freight carloadings (Q).-Association of American Railroads; no seasonal adjustment
For Index-Series Finding Guide, see last pages of issue.
@FedFRASER