Full text of Business Conditions Digest : October 1986
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary
Robert Ortner, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Allan H. Young, Director
Carol S. Carson, Deputy Director
Edward K. Smith, Associate Director for
National Analysis and Projections
FeliksTamm, Editor
This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes
Mary D. Young—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)
The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and
sources at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting
of the following persons:
Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor
Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget
Lincoln F. Anderson, Council of Economic Advisers
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Andrea Kusko, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Edward K. Smith, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughfy coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.
Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic,
$55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
available on request. Address correspondence
Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.
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BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
New Features and Changes for This Issue
ItCII
iii
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6
OCTOBER 1 9 8 6
Data Through September
Volume 26, Number 10
PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Al
A2
A3
A4
BL
J32_
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7
Cl
C2
C3
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS
Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components
Chart
10
12
14
15
Table
60
—
—
—
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
16
19
21
23
26
28
31
61
63
64
65
68
69
71
DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change
36
—
39
74
77
—
The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department. Use of funds
for printing this periodical has been approved
by the Director of the Office of Management
and Budget through September 30, 1987.
ItCII
PART II.
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME
Al
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
AND PRODUCT
GNPand Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNP and National Income
Chart
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
Table
80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83
48
49
84
87
51
89
52
53
90
90
56
57
92
93
58
59
59
94
95
96
PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Bl
B2
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices
PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
B. C u r r e n t Adjustment Factors (September 1986 issue)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
97
D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (July 1986 issue)
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series
105
106
110
114
Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to in-
BCD DATA ON DISKETTE
corporate recent find-
Data for most BCD series are available on diskette. Current data, covering the
last 5 calendar years, are available on a subscription basis—one diskette per
month for 12 months ($240). Historical data, covering 1945 to date, are
available on a set of five diskettes ($100). For more information, write to the
Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of
Commerce, Washington, DC 20230.
ings of economic
research, new/y available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
Changes in this issue are as follows:
data, etc. Changes may
1. The series on change in total liquid assets (series
104) has been revised by the source agency for the period
1983 to date to reflect a revision in the data for short-term
Treasury securities.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System, Division of Research and Statistics, Banking Section.
2. The index of industrial production for Canada (series
723) has been revised by the source agency for the period 1981
to date. This revision reflects the reweighting of the basic
data to a 1981 base year and the incorporation of a new standard industrial classification. This revision will be carried
back to earlier years in a subsequent issue of BCD.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from Statistics Canada, Industry Product Division,
Ottawa K1A 0V5, Canada.
3. Appendix C contains historical data for series 34,
35, 49, 50, 55, 64, 68, 81, 86-89, 110, 200, 213, 217, 220,
224, 225, 227, 310, 311, 345, 346, 358, 370, 500-502, 510512, 564, 565, and 965.
4. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series
50, 57, 86, and 91.
The November issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on December 8.
in
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.
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BBC
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report is organized into two major parts.
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
part I are also shown in part (I to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data,
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government
and defense-related activities, and international
transactions and comparisons.
The two parts are further divided into sections
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
begin with 1959, but those for the composite
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
begin with 1950, and a few charts use a two-panel
format which covers only the period since 1974,
Except for section F in part l l t charts contain
shading which indicates periods of recession in
general business activity. The tables contain data
for only the last few years. The historical data for
the various time series are contained in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
In addition to the charts and tables described
above, each issue contains a summary table which
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest. An index appears
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect precise
relationships or order. However, all series
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
the range 1 to 199.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive tntrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday
adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the.special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series, (See appendix A.)
It is the smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
MCD of 1.
The charts in this report generally include
centered MCD moving averages for those series
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
variation about the moving averages and to provide
observations for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates used
in this report are those designated by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They
mark the approximate dates when, according to
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor
the shading for recessions will be entered on the
charts until after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area
have been designated.
The historical reference turning dates are subject
to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed
as a result of revisions in important economic
time series. The dates shown in this publication
for the 1948-70 time period are those determined
by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated
turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82.
Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity-that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967, During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are based on the results of that study.
Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
conformity to business expansions and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
November 1975 issues of BCD.)
The resulting
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced
a new list of indicators classified by economic
process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
relating to section B.)
This information, particularly the scores relating
to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
selection of series to be included in the composite
indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
series from many different economic-process
groups and combine those with similar timing
behavior, using their overall performance scores as
weights. Because they use series of historically
tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
of duplication, composite indexes give more
reliable signals over time than do any of the
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
\ v
\ .
1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)
Economic
Process
Cyclical^.
Timing
N.
LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(61 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(3 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
j employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
ROUGHLY
!
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(24 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(19 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(2 series)
TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(8 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)
III."
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)
IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)
V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)
VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)
Capacity utilization
(2 series)
Orders and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption and
trade (2 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)
Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (2 series)
Profits and profit
margins (7 series)
Cash flows (2 series)
Money (5 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)
Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)
Consumption and
trade (4 series)
Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(6 series)
Business investment
expenditures
U series)
Consumption and
trade ( 1 series)
Business investment
commitments
( 1 series)
Velocity of money
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)
Unit labor costs
and labor share
{4 series)
Interest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (1 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)
B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
\ .
Economic
\Process
Cyclical^
Timing
\.
1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)
II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)
III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)
IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)
V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)
VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(1 series)
Industrial
production
(1 series)
Orders and deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption and
trade (4 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)
Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Stock prices
(i series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (3 series)
Profits and profit
margins (6 series)
Cash flows (2 series)
Money (4 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)
Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity utilization
(2 series)
Consumption and
trade (3 series)
Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (2 series)
Money (1 series)
Velocity of money
(I series)
Orders and deliveries
(1 series)
Business investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(7 series)
Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)
Velocity of money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)
LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)
ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)
LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(41 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(5 series)
TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(1 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)
;
Bank reserves
(I series)
independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
well-established differences in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through
-1-3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series are prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are five indexes based on leading indicators which
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include all 12
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident
indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
12 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. " L " denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at both peaks and
troughs, all components of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the period since 1970
can be determined by inspection of the charts,
where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of
the NBER reference cycle chronology.
Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
This section covers 112 individual time series,
including the 22 indicators used in the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the
charts in the same manner as described above, but
this section includes series with different timing at
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19
series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the
indicators of this section by economic process and
cyclical timing is summarized in the two
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is
based on the observed behavior of the series at five
business cycle peaks (November '48, July r53,
August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change
Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
series.
This section also records rates of change for the
three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
(quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
rates of change for the same aggregates are
generally positively correlated, these two measures
present information about two related but distinct
aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
change, while rates of change measure the degree
as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
at the business cycle turns as well.
Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
This part is divided into six sections which cover
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
measuring various aspects of economic activity,
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
or to selected foreign countries. The represented
variables include incomes, outputs, and
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity;
labor resources; government receipts,
expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few
key foreign countries.
Section A. National Income and Product
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts .and
final expenditures for the personal, business,
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
Section Al shows the gross national product,
final sales, and personal and disposable personal
income. The four major components of the gross
national p r o d u c t - p e r s o n a I consumption
expenditures, gross private domestic investment,
government purchases of goods and services, and
net exports of goods and services—are presented in
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
section A are presented in current as well as
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita
series. The national income and product accounts,
briefly defined below, are described more fully in
the Survey of Current Business, Part I,
January 1976.
Gross national product (GNP) is the market
value of final goods and services produced by the
labor and property supplied by residents of the
United States, before deduction of allowances for
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the
most comprehensive measure of aggregate
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'
income, rental income of persons, dividends,
personal interest income, and transfer payments,
less personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving. It consists
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax
payments to government.
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings,
and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included.
Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed
capital goods purchased by private business and
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
in the physical volume of inventories held by
private business. The former include all private
purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for
tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used
goods are also included.
Government purchases of goods and service!;
(A4) is the compensation of government employees
and purchases from business and from abroad. It
excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
government, and subsidies. It includes gross
investment by government enterprises but excludes
their current outlays. It includes net purchases of
used goods and excludes sales and purchases of
land and financial assets.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part
of the national production; imports are not, but are
included in the components of GNP and are
therefore deducted. More detail on U.S.
international transactions is provided in section E.
National income (A6) is the incomes that
originate in the production of goods and services
attributable to labor and property supplied by
residents of the United States. Thus, it measures
the factor costs of the goods and services produced. It consists of the compensation of
employees, proprietors' income, rental income of
persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
Saving (A7) is the difference between income
and expenditures during an accounting period.
Total gross saving includes personal saving,
business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
profits and capital consumption allowances), and
government surplus or deficit.
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
major expenditure components of GIMP
(consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of GNP, and the major income
components of national income (compensation of
employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of national income.
Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
The important data on price movements include
the monthly consumer and producer price indexes
and their major components. Based largely on
these series are the quarterly price indexes from
the national income and product accounts, notably
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights
reflecting the changing proportions of different
expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are
presented for the period since 1974.
The group of series on wages and productivity
consists of data on average hourly earnings and
average hourly compensation (including earnings
and other benefits) in current and constant dollars,
output per hour of work in the business sector, and
rates of change for most of these measures.
Section C. Labor
Unemployment
Force, Employment, and
This section contains measures of the civilian
labor force and its major components: Total
numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
of worker. Also included are data on participation
rates for a few principal segments of the labor
force.
Section D. Government Activities
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
(1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
government. Also shown is a selection of series
from the discontinued Defense
Indicators.
These series measure defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national
economy. Included are series relating to
obligations, contracts, orders, production,
shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
These series are grouped according to the time at
which the activities they measure occur in the
defense order-production-delivery process. Series
measuring activities which usually precede production, such as contract awards and new orders,
are classified as "advance measures of defense
activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
coincide with production, such as employment, and
activities which usually follow production, such as
shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
measures of defense activity."
Section E. U.S. International Transactions
This group includes monthly series on exports
(excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
few selected components of these aggregates, Also
shown are the balances between receipts and
expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
and investment income.
Section F. International Comparisons
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with which we have important trade
relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European
countries in the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1974) provide
important measures of the rates of inflation in the
major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
shown beginning in 1974) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.
Basic Data
Arabic numberindicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)
Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)
Dotted line indicates anticipated data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).
Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A "
is an arithmetic scale, ''scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.
Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.
Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.
Rates of Change
Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.
Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.
Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.
Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3- or 4-quarter spans.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, o r
2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Percent change
Basic data'
Unit
of
measure
Series title and timing classification1
Annual averaj
1984
1985
1st Q
1986
2dQ
1986
3dQ
July
Aug.
Sept.
1986
July
to
Aug.
1986
Aug.
to
Sept.
1986
1st Q
to
2dQ
2dQ
3dQ
1986
I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Al. Composite Indexes
910.
920.
930.
940.
Twelve leading indicators
Four roughly coincident indicators
Six lagging indicators
Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
165.7
154.5
117.3
131.8
169.1
160.3
127.0
126.3
174.8
163.1
132.3
123.3
178.1
164.5
132.0
124.6
179.6
164.5
131.8
124.8
179.5
164.5
132.0
124.6
17 9.3
164.6
13 2.1
124.6
180.1
164.4
131.4
125.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.
0.4
-0.1
-0.5
0.4
1.9
0.
-0.
1.
0.8
0.
-0.2
0.2
...do.,,
..do...
..do...
110.3
105.3
110.8
136.4
110.3
102.0
115.2
138.8
110.1
103.3
119.2
140,9
110.3
103.1
120.6
142.0
110.1
102.5
NA
146.6
110 .8
102.7
120.7
145.7
109.6
102.3
121 .4
146 .6
109.9
102,5
NA
147.5
-1.1
-0.4
0.6
0.6
0.3
0.2
NA
0 .6
0 .
-0.
1 .
0.8
-0.2
-0.6
NA
3.2
L , L , U Hours
L,C,L...
....do
L,C,L... Thousands
40.7
3.4
366
40.5
3.3
383
40.7
3,4
384
40.7
3.4
377
40.7
3.5
373
40.6
3.4
370
40.8
3.5
379
40 .8
3.5
369
0.5
0.1
-2.4
0.
0.
2.6
0.
0.
1.8
0,
0.1
1.1
0.458
0.497
139
0.509
141
0.471
0.495
136
0.509
0.497
0.479
134
-0.012 -0.018 - 0 . 0 3 8
-4.3
-5.0
0.
0.024
1.5
177 .35 182.30 185.44 1 8 5 . 6 8 186.43 185.90
101.68 103.97 105.54 1 0 6 . 0 4 106.88 106 .77
94.46
99.40
9 9 . 8 5 100.24 100.10
97.69
24,730 25,054 2 5 , 0 2 8 2 4 , 9 5 2 24,866 24,869
186.66
107 .11
100.26
2.4,886
186.73
106.77
100.37
24,843
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.
-0.3
0.1
-0.2
0,1
0.5
0.5
-0.3
0.4
0
0.4
-0.3
L,L,L.. 1967 = 100..,
....do
C,C,C...
do
Lg,Lg,Lg....
...do
L,L,L...
Leading Indicator Subgroups:
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916. Profitability
917. Money and financial flows
L.L.L..
L.L.L..
L,L,L...
L.L.L...
B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
• 1 . Average weekly hours, mfg
21. Average weekly overtime hours, mfg.J
*5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted*)
Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3
46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
L.Lg.lL, Ratio
L,lg,U... 1967 = 100..,
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
*41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
40. Employees in goods-producing industries
90. Ratio, civilian employment to population
of working age3
Comprehensive Unemployment:
37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted*)
43. Unemployment rate (inverted1)3
45, Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv.*)3
•91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted*)
44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)3
U,C,C... A.r., bil, hrs....
U,C,C... Millions
do
C,C,C...
L,C,U... Thousands
U,Lg,U... Percent
U_g,U...
L,Lg,U...
L,Lg,U...
Lg,Lg,Lg...
Lg,Lg,Lg...
Thousands
Percent
....do
Weeks
Percent
58.79
59.38
59.74
59.83
60.07
60.08
60.17
59.96
0.09
-0.21
0.09
0 .24
8,539
7.5
2.8
18.2
2.4
8,312
7.2
2.8
15.6
2.0
8,259
7 .1
2.8
8,446
7 .2
2.8
8,190
14.9
1.9
14.6
1.9
8,182
6.9
2.8
15.5
1.9
8,027
6 .8
2.8
15.8
1.9
8,329
7 .0
2,8
15.6
2.0
2.0
0.1
0.
-5.3
0.
-3
-0.2
0
1.3
-0.1
-2.3
-0.1
0.
2.0
0.
3.1
0.3
0.
-6.2
0.
0.2
1.8
0.6
-0.3
6.9
2.8
15.0
1.9
62. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars
52. Personal income in 1982 dollars
*51. Personal income less transfer payments
in 1982 dollars
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg.,
and construction
Industrial Production:
*47. Industrial production
73. Industrial production, durable mfrs
74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars
C,C,C... A.r., bil.dol...
C,C,C....
do
3489.9 3585.2 3655.9 3661 .4 3 6 8 3 . 3
2877.1 2962.8 3018.2 3071.7 3 0 6 3 . 5 3066.6 3065.1 3058.8
0.
-0.2
C,C,C,
2455.6 2527 .4 2574.4 2621.9 2610.0 2609.8 2612.8 2607.3
0.1
-0.2
1.8
-0.5
538.9
541 .5
539.7
0.5
-0.3
0.2
-0.5
124.9
127 .4
132.1
125.1
127 .6
132.0
125.3
128.0
132.2
0.2
0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.3
0.2
-0.5
-0.9
1 .2
-0.1
79.8
78.1
79.8
78,3
79.7
78.1
79.8
78.0
-0.1
-0.2
0 .1
-0.1
-0.5
-1.1
0.3
-0.2
103.03 106.35
96.05 98.78
98 .81
103.84 108.98
96.51 101.01
-2.2
-2.3
5.0
4.7
-3.5
-3.9
3.2
2.8
do
L,L,L...
87.02
82.28 84.60
85.43 86.03 84.78 85.25 8 8 . 0 7
do
L,L,L.
2.11
0.63
-1.90
1.31
-0.31
2.18
1.24
2.99
L,Lg,U.. Bil. dol., EOP ... 345.44 353.04 3 5 9 . 5 9 353.87 357.80 355.11 354.80 357 .80
L.L.L. Percent
61
52
51
52
45
52
54
-1.55
-0.1
-3
3.3
3.30
0.8
1
-1.
-4.08
-1.6
4
0 .7
3.21
1.1
0
0.4
0.2
-0.2
1.5
0.9
NA
NA
0.2
4.6
4.0
-0.3
1 .2
1.1
1 .2
2.4
3.7
1 .4
NA
NA
0.6
3.7
2.9
19.2
-2.1
C,C,C.
529.2
C,C,C. 1977-100
C,C,C.
do
C,L,L
do
C.C.C.. A.r., bil. dol
Capacity Utilization:
82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg3
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials3
L.C.U..
L,C,U..
Percent
...do
538.0
541.4
542,5
540.0
123.8
125.0 124.4 125.1
121.4
127.3
128.3 127.1 127 .7
124.2
128.6
122.3
125.1
130.2 132.1
1503.1 1533.2 1563.6 1 5 6 2 . 8 1573.0
80.1
80.2
80.0
79.4
100.56 104.30
95.73
97 .93
99.98
80.5
82.0
79.5
78.3
0.6
0.5
1 .5
0.7
B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
6. Mfrs.' new orders, durable goods
7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods
*8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
and materials
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods1
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5
*32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries3 (u)
L,L,L., Bil, dol
L.L.L..
do
Consumption and Trade:
56. Manufacturing and trade sales... .
C,C,C..,
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982dollars..
C.C.C..
75. Industrial production, consumer goods...
C,L,C.
54. Sales of retail stores
C.L.U..
59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars
U,L,U.
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles. ... . L.C.C..
58. Index of consumer sentiment ( u )
, L.L.L.,
Bil. dol
..do. .
1977 = 100
Bil. dol.
.do.
A.r., bil. dol
Q 1966=100.
411.30
394.61
118.0
107.76
102.54
105.7
97 .5
424.10
26.35 425.18
NA 427 .47 429.09
NA
406.26 411.54 416.32
NA 20.46 421 .15
NA
120.2
123.0 124.4 1 2 5 . 1
124.9 1 2 5 . 2
125,1
114.50 117.08 118.45 1 2 2 . 8 5 119 .80 121 .57 1 2 7 . 1 8
106.91 10&.91 111.50 114.70 112.49 113.51 118.09
115.3
93.2
111.1
95.5
115.2
96.8
137.3
94.8
97.7
94.9
91.9
0 .6
-2.9
-3.2
B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
•12. Net business formation
13. New business incorporations
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment..
*20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars
•,
24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods ,
27. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense
capital goods
. L,L,L... 1967 = 100...
. L,L,L... Number
121 .3 121.2
52,922 55,827
. L.L.L.. Bil. dol
. L,L,L.
.. L,L,L.
. L,L,L.
...do...
..do...
120.5 120.8
9,165 58,147
32.03
30.17
31 .78
26.95
32.65
27.19
30.91
26.49
31 .51
26.25
33.26
27.45
27 .66
28.26
27.61
27.84
29.60
31 .58
33,56
27 , 3 9
121.3
-1.6
NA
0.9
NA
0.2
-1.7
0.3
NA
30.18
32.87
-4.7
8.9
0.7
4.0
32.26
26.32
33.95
28.63
-3.9
-3.9
5.2
8.8
1.9
-0.9
5.6
4.6
28.85
30.20
-3.1
4.7
0.8
6.3
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data2
Unit
of
measure
Series title and timing classification1
Percent change
Annual average
1st Q
1986
1984
2dQ
1986
3dQ
1986
July
1986
Aug.
1986
Sept.
1986
July
to
Aug.
1986
Aug.
to
Sept.
1st Q
to
2dQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
1936
I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Con.
Business Investment Commitments—Con.:
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space
L.C.U.... Mil. sq. ft
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg
U,Lg,ll.... Bil. dol
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.5
C,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP .
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Expenditures for new plant,and equipment
69. Mfrs.1 machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production, business equipment
86. Presidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars
78.07
29.36
94.37
86.42
27 .22
94.58
73.01
23.39
92.22
78.95
18.77
86 .37
79.09
80.82
8.2
2.2
NA 399.80 399.36
139.2
138.3
139.1
457.1
NA
139.7
-0.1
0.7
NA
0.4
1,782
140.3
1,818
133,4
1 ,680
127 .8
2.0
-4.9
-7.6
-4.2
-11 .10
35.8
-3.92
-0.1
7.18
-35.9
-0.24
-0.58
-0.34
-1.35
0.
-0.1
-0.6
0.1
0.1
77.67
NA
NA
C.Lg.Lg.... A.r., bil. dol...
354.44 387 .13 3 7 7 . 9 4 375.92 380.52
do
C,Lg,Lg....
C,Lg,U.... 1977 = 100...
C,Lg,C... A.r., bil. dol...
375.02 401.80 395.20 396 .66
134.2 139.6 139.9 137.7
422.2 461.4 457.8 456.8
Residential Construction Commitments and Investment:
28. New private housing units started
*29. Building permits, new private housing units
89. Residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars
L,L,L... A.r., thousands,
L,L,L... 1967 = 100
L,L,L... A.r., bil.dol
1,750
134.8
170.6
1,742
138.1
177.2
1,998
146.3
186.3
1,908
145.3
192.7
20.00
20.1
12.91
2.9
1,760
133.8
196,1
73.10
8 .1
- 1 9 .8
- 6 .3
-1.6
NA
NA
-0.5
1.2
0.4
-1.6
-0.2
NA
1.0
0.1
-4.5
-0.7
3.4
-7.8
-7.9
1.8
-24.8
-19.6
-7.09
-17 .2
NA
NA
B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3
*36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars (smoothed6)3
31. Change in mfg, and trade inventories, booh value3
38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order, book value3
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value1
70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1982 dollars5
65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value5
*77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in
1982 dollars1
78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order, book value5
L,L,L...
59.2
9.0
L,L,L...
L,L,L...
49.21
53.2
2.99
9.7
do..
do...
-4.5
NA
NA
0.02
L,L,L... Bil. dol..
591 .90 591 .89
648.19 647.81
87.28
86.73
1.54
1.54
210 .08
209.50
NA
NA
NA
-2.61
212.0
-0.18
1.50
221 .2
-0.53
-3.22
-6.9
-0.64
160.46 186.84 219.96 240.58 241.15 2 40 .18 245.00 238.27
2.0
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP . 573.43 583.15 588.18 588.91
do
630.89 638.43 645.87 646.28
Lg.Lg.Lg....
Lg,Lg,Lg....
"2 do.I!..
87.62 86.71
89.69 88.37
Lg.Lg.Lg.Ratio
1.56
1 .56
1.55
1 .55
L,Lg,Lg....
Bil. dol., EOP. 217.30 214.24 214.31 210.31
NA
NA
NA
-1.0
NA
0.
-0.01
NA
-0.3
-1.9
B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3
23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials©
*99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)3
L.L.l Percent
U,L,L... 1967=100...
L,L,L... Percent
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (u)
L,L,L..., 1941-43 = 10..
Profits and Profit Margins:
16. Corporate profits after tax
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars
79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj
80
do
, i n 1982 dollars
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg.3
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
Cash Flows;
34. Corporate net cash flow
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars
-0.37
278.9
-0.19
-0.2 2
244.8
-0 .42
-0.20
231.1
-0.25
0.70
222.1
-0.19
-0.17
220,3
-0.08
140.3
135.3
169.3
164.7
4.6
99.0
131.4
123.1
188.9
181 .0
3 .8
98.8
135.2
124.8
207 .3
196.6
3.6
99.0
138.0
127 .5
199.9
189.3
4.3
98.8
L.L.L.... A.r., bil. dol
do
L.L.L....
350.4
350.7
376.0
374.9
380.9
380.8
380 .6
379.8
159.7
164.8
167.0
168.0
0.690
0.708
0.721
0.724
NA
135.3
88.6
138.0
85.4
139.0
83.1
138.7
81.8
137.9
80 .2
73.5
NA
73.0
4.11
4.3
-0.35
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
99,0
L.L.L... A.r., bil. dol..
do
L.L.L....
do
L,C,L...
do
L,C,L...
L.L.L.... Cents
L,L,L 1977 = 100...
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, business sector
Lg.Lg.Lg.... 1977 = 100
68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product,
nonfinancial corporations
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Dollars
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
a) Actual data
Lg.Lg.Lg.... 1977 = 100
•b) Actual data as percent of trend3
Lg,Lg,Lg..., Percent
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
do
national income5
Lg,Lg,Lg....
0.61
227 .6
0 .46
0.90
-3.9
0.06
-0.87
-0.8
0.11
9 .4
0.2
2 .1
2.2
-3.6
-3.7
0.7
-0.2
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.2
-0.1
-0.3
0.6
169.1
0.4
137 .7
80.4
138.3
80.4
137.8
79.7
0 .4
0 .
-0.4
-0.7
-0.2
-1 .3
0 .7
NA
-0.6
-1.6
-0.2
87. Money and Credit
Money:
85, Change in money supply Ml 3
102. Change in money supply M23
104. Change in total liquid assets3
105. Money supply M l in 1982 dollars
•106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml 3
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23
Credit
33.
112.
113.
•111.
110.
L,L,L....
L.C.U....
L,L,L...
L.L.L....
L.L.L....
I. dol
do...
C,C,C... Ratio
do...
C,Lg,C...
Flows:
Net change in mortgage debt3
Net change in business loans3
Net change in consumer installment credit3
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3
Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers
L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol..
do
L,L,L...
do
L,L,L...,
L.L.L.... A.r., percent..
L,L,L..., A.r., bil.dol...
Credit Difficulties:
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted4)3 5
L,L,L... Percent, EOP .
0.83
1.73
1 .39
1,32
0.96
1.46
0.63
0.48
0.93
0.63
1.07
0.88
1.00
0.65
0.33
0.69
NA
0.74
0.84
NA
0
,67
0.70
0,48
0.92
605.9
608.8
596.6
603.8
532.9
557 .8 582.2
506.0
23
99.7
2406
.5
2116.6 2229.7 2276.4 2345.6 2396.0 2381 .8
6.354
1.316
6.174
1 .287
NA
77.64 25.93
100.11
-8.02 -16.48
22.76
53.11
66.85
77.34 81.52 63.36
5.0
6.6
10.4
15.8
563.59 637.62 445.08 525.58
NA
24.71
NA
7 .2
NA
6.914
1 .365
2 .09
6.736
1.334
2.32
6.563
1.331
2.41
1.294
1.285
NA
5.94
66.77
7.3
NA
47.80
44.92
6.4
0.34
-0 .14
-0.10
1.6
0.8
-0.90
-0.30
NA
0 .5
0.3
-0.009 -0.004
NA
20.39
NA
7 .9
NA
NA
41 .86 -27.41
NA
•21 .85
1 .5
-0.9
0.83
0.67
0.19
4.4
3.0
-0.14
-0,12
NA
3.7
2,1
-0.209 -0.180
-0.029
NA
-8.46
3.49
-1.6
18.1
NA
41 .19
NA
2.2
NA
NA
39
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data2
Series title and timing classification
Unit
of
1
1st Q
measure
1984
I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con.
B7. Money and Credit-Con.
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted*) 3 ©
94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve3 ©
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds rate3 0
114. Discount rate on new Treasury b i l l s 3 ©
116. Yield on new high-grade corporate b o n d s 3 ©
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 ©
117. Yield on municipal bonds3 ©
118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages 3 ©
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans 3 ©
*109. Average prime rate charged by banks 3 ©
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding5
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
*101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in
1982 dollars
*95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income3
Percent change
Annual average
1985
2dQ
1986
3dQ
1986
July
1986
Aug.
198ft
Sept
1986
July
to
Aug.
1986
to
Sept.
1986
1st Q
to
2dQ
1986
2dQ
to
3d Q
1986
-3,046
3,730
-492
1,321
230
805
-1
857
-81
874
169
741
-132
-280
1,008
301
131
148
136
231
52
10.22
9.57
13.37
11.99
1O.1O
13.82
12 .02
12 .04
8.10
7.49
11.75
10.75
9.10
12 .24
9.74
9.93
7.83
6.89
9.68
8.90
7.53
10.38
9.29
9.37
6.92
6.13
9.06
7.95
7.54
9.95
8.13
8.61
6.21
5.53
9.14
7 .89
7 .28
9 .90
7.73
7.85
6.56
5.84
9.11
7.86
7.51
10.01
6.17
5.57
9.03
7.72
7.21
9.80
5.89
5.19
9.28
8.08
7.11
9.90
-0.39
-0.27
-0.08
-0.14
-0 .30
-0.21
-0.28
-0.38
0.25
0.36
-0.10
0.10
8 .16
7.90
7.50
-0.26
-0.40
-0.91
-0.7 6
-0.62
-0.95
0,01
-0.43
-1.16
-0.76
-0.71
-0.60
0.08
-0.06
-0.26
-0.05
-0.40
-0.76
119
114
116
115
117
118
67
109
NA
NA 573.22 576.96
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol,, EOP , 453.58 535.10 550.94 567.65
Lg,Lg,Lg..., Bil. dol
299.66 331.65 344.30 338.23 340.83 337 .61 341.60 343.30
0.7
1.2
NA
0.5
3.0
-1.8
NA
0.8
66
72
289.04 321.52 338.44 338.79 342.78 339.31 344.00 345.02
1.4
0.3
0.1
1 .2
101
NA
0.19
0.4
0.4
0.4
-0.2
0.3
0.4
-1.9
-2
-5.7
-2.4
0.6
-1,9
0.2
0.3
0.5
0.
-0.1
L.U.U.... Mil. dol
do
L,Lg,U....
L.Lg.lg.... Percent
do..,
C,Lg,Lg....
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do...
do...
C,lg,Lg...,
do...
U,Lg,Lg....
do..,
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do..
Lg,lg,lg...,
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do..,
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
Lg,Lg,lg.... Percent
13.45
15.02
15.94
16.13
NA
16.41
16.48
NA
0.07
1982=100...
1967-100...
Percent
1967-100...
do
...do..
..do
..do
..do
..do
107.9
311.1
0.3
302.9
310.3
322.6
331.0
320.0
294.1
290 .4
111.5
322.2
0 .3
309.8
308.8
323.9
306.2
318.7
300.5
291 .9
113.5
327 .3
-0.2
314.6
304.5
318.9
289.9
314.1
303.8
288.7
114.0
326.5
0.1
316.0
298.8
311 .6
273.4
306.6
305.5
283.1
115.0
328.9
0.2
322.0
297 .5
308.3
276 .5
304.8
306.9
283.0
328.0
0
319
297
308
276 .4
304.4
306.3
281 .9
328.6
0.2
322.5
297.2
307 .7
275.9
304.2
306.6
282.9
330.2
0.3
323.9
297.7
308.8
277.3
305.8
307.7
284.1
0.2
0.2
0.9
-0.2
-0
-0.3
-0.2
1977 = 100...
160.7
165.5
168.0
169.3
168.9
169.2
169.7
94.6
167.4
97.6
105.3
104.3
94.1
173.9
98.0
106.4
104.8
94.3
177.6
98.4
107 .3
105.6
95.1
179.6
99.3
107.4
105.8
95.1
95.1
95.0
93
94
95
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
B l . Price Movements
310.
320.
320c.
322,
330.
335.
331.
332.
333.
334.
Implicit price deflator for gross national product
Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) © . . . .
Change in CPI-U (S/A) 3
Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food
Producer price index (PPI), all commodities ©
PPI, industrial commodities ©
PPI, crude materials for further processing
PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components
PPI, capital equipment
PPI, finished consumer goods
0.4
0.9
0
0
1.9
-0.4
-1 .1
1.1
-0.6
0.!
0.
310
320
320
322
330
335
331
332
333
334
B2. Wages and Productivity
340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
341. Real average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls....
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector
346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector...
370. Output per hour, business sector
358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
...do..
..do...
..do...
..do..
95.3
178
99
107
105.7
0,3
340
-0.2
0.6
0
0
0
341
345
346
370
358
0.4
0.7
-3.1
-1 .2
-3.2
-7.8
-3.0
441
442
37
444
445
446
447
-0.2
0.4
0.8
0.4
-0.7
451
452
453
-36.5
1.0
4.4
-11.0
0.5
2.6
NA
NA
-2.1
NA
NA
2.2
500
501
502
510
511
512
4.4
-5.2
-20
0.6
0
4.5
NA
NA
21 .4
1.6
NA
-0.5
517
525
548
557
570
564
1.5
-13.6
-5.7
-2.2
-41.2
1.2
NA
NA
NA
NA
602
604
606
612
614
616
0.5
0.9
C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
441.
442.
37.
444.
445.
446.
447.
Civilian labor force
Civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age..
Number unemployed, full-time workers
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates:
451. Males 20 years and over3
452. Females 20 years and over3
453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age3
Millions...
....do
Thousands..,
....do
...do..,
...do...
...do...
Percent
....do..
113.54 115.46 117.03 117.67 118.16 118.07 118.18 118.22
105.00 107 .15 108.77 109.22 109.98 109.88 110.16 109.89
8,539 8,312 8,259 8,446 8,182 8,190 8,027 8,329
3,932 3,715 3,705 3,796 3,750 3,824 3,628 3,798
3,129
2,998 2,990 3,042
3,107
3,094 3,109
3,010
1,468
1 ,368 1,409
1,499
1,460
1,422
1,488
1,542
7,057 6,793 6,758 6,859 6,651 6,671 6,497 6,785
78.3
53.7
53.9
78.1
54.7
54.5
78.3
55.0
54.5
78.1
55.4
55.3
77.9
55.8
54.6
78.0
55.8
54.1
77.9
55.9
54.9
77.9
55.7
54.9
0,1
0,3
-2.0
-5.1
-0.3
3.0
-2.6
0
-0.2
3
4.7
1 .7
5.6
4.4
-0.1
0.1
0.8
0.
-0.2
0.
0.5
0.4
2.3
2.5
0.5
5.6
1 .5
D. Government Activities
D l . Receipts and Expenditures
500.
501.
502.
510.
511.
512.
Federal Government surplus or deficit3
Federal Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures
State and local government surplus or deficit3
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures
517.
525.
548,
557.
570.
564.
Defense Department gross obligations incurred
Defense Department prime contract awards
Mfrs.' new orders, defense products
Industrial production, defense and space equipment.
Employment, defense products industries
Federal Government purchases for national defense
A.r., bil. dol,.
...do..,
...do..,
...do.!!
...do...
•170.0 -198.0 -201.6 - 2 3 8 . 1
MA
7 26 .5 7 86 .8 800.0 807 .7
NA
896 .5
984.9 1001 .5 1045.7 1024.0
68.5
61.7
59.0
70.0
NA
540.8
577.5
608.4 611 .6
NA
472.4
515.8
552.6 564.8
538.5
D2. Defense Indicators
Mil. dol
...do.. .
...do.
1977-100.,
Thousands...
A.r, bil. dol...
22,437 2 6 , 8 8 3
12,942 1 2 , 2 4 0
7,452 8 , 0 2 2
156 .4 1 7 0 . 6
1,438
1,544
235.0
259.4
29,469 30,776
12,370 11 ,732
9,332 7,394
177.1
178.1
1,589
1,589
266,4 278.4
NA 31 ,541 30,323
NA 15,992 13,088
8,980 10,157
8,332
179.5
181.5
181.0
1,612
NA 1,605
277.0
Mil. dol...
18,137 17 , 7 7 2 17,884 18,154
3,146
1,941
2,426
2,246
3,875 3 , 9 1 7
3,963 3,736
27,133 2 8 , 8 3 8 30 ,957 30,266
4,180
4,689
4,270 2,511
5,211
4,688
3,787
5,147
NA 17,707 17,601
NA 2,062 2,231
NA 3,585 4,091
NA 34,121 29 ,476
NA 2,483
2,225
NA 6,242 6,280
NA
NA
8,451
181.9
NA
-3.9
-18.2
-18.0
1.1
0.4
NA
NA
1 .4
0.2
NA
E. U.S. International Transactions
E l . Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614.
616.
Exports, excluding military aid shipments
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products..
Imports of automobiles and parts
...do...
...do...
...do..
...do..
-0.6
8.2
14.1
-13.6
-10.4
0.6
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data'
Series title
Unit
of
Percent change
Annual average
measure
1983
1985
2dQ
1985
3d Q
1985
4th Q
1985
1st Q
2dQ
4th Q
to
1st Q
1986
3dQ
1986
1st Q
to
2dQ
1986
2dQ
3dQ
1986
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES- -Con.
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
667.
668.
669.
622.
618.
620.
651.
652.
Balance on goods and services3
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade'
Merchandise exports, adjusted
Merchandise imports, adjusted
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Bil. d o l . . .
,. ..do..
. . ..do.
.. ..do.
do..
.. ..do.
. .do.
..do.
-9.28
83.32 90
92.60 113,
- 1 6 . 7 7 -28.
50.46 54,
67 .22 83,
19.31 21.
13.10 16.
-25.67 - 2 5 . 9 6 -24.45 -29.45 -31.02 -30.68
90 .87
89.62 89.35
90.23
91.59
91 .16
115.30 115.31 114.69 120.32 122.61 121.84
-31.11 - 3 0 . 3 7 -31.68 -37 .35 -36.46 -36.02
54.80
53.66
52.50 52.73
53 .61 53 .88
90.82
90.08
90.12
84.17
84.72 84.24
22.20
24.51
24.22
24.50
22.50 22.25
16.80 16.24 15.25 17.70 16.91
16.20
A.r., bil. dol.
340 5.7
3279.1
13,963
3285.5
2428.1
2331 .9
9,930
3765.0
3489.9
14,721
3430.7
2670.6
2470.6
10,421
3998.1
3585.2
14,981
3576.2
2828.0
2528.0
10,563
3965.0
3567.6
14,928
3550.2
2842.3
2550.8
10,674
4030.5
3603.8
15,041
3603.1
2832.0
2524.7
10,537
4087.7
3622 .3
15,0 80
3627 .5
2882 .2
2540.7
10,577
4149 .2
3655.9
15,188
3616.1
2935.1
2581 .2
10,723
2234.5
2146 .0
289.1
283.1
816.7
800.2
1128.7
1062.7
2428.2
2246 .3
331 .2
318.9
870.1
828.6
1227 .0
1098.7
2600 .5
2324.5
359.3
343.9
90 5.1
841.6
1336.1
1139.0
2576.0
2311 .9
354.0
338.8
902.3
841.3
1319.7
1131.8
2627 .1
2342.0
373.3
357.4
907 .4
843.8
1346.4
1J.40.8
2667.9
2351 .7
362.0
347 .0
922.6
847 .2
1383.2
1157.5
502.3
504.0
509.4
510.4
-7 .1
661.1
647 .7
650.0
638.6
11 .1
9.0
667.1
655.6
648.0
638.1
19.1
-6.4
662.1
652.0
598.0
592 .8
64.1
59.2
17.4
657.4
643.8
654.3
643 .1
3.1
0.7
..do.,
..do.
do .
, do
675.0
649.0
283.5
275.1
391 .5
373.9
733.4
675.2
311 .3
291 .7
422.2
383.5
815.4
721 .2
354.1
323 .6
461 .3
397.6
799.0
708.3
340.9
311.4
458.1
396.9
829.7
731.8
360.9
329.9
468.8
401.9
...do...
...do...
...do...
...do..
...do..
...do...
-6.1
-19.9
352.5
348.1
358.7
368.1
-58.7
-7 8.9
-83.6 -108.2
382.7
369.8
369.7 362.3
441 .4 448.6
453.2
47 0.5
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-1.57
0.8
1 .9
0.89
1.8
0,
-1 .2
16.1
4175.6
3661.4
15,179
3646 .3
2978.5
2625.8
10,886
4234.3
3683.3
15,235
3687 .8
2983.0
2611 .2
10,800
1,5
0.9
0.7
-0.3
1.8
1.6
1 .4
0.6
0.2
-0.1
0.8
1 .5
1 .7
1 .5
1.4
0.6
0.4
1.1
0.2
-0.6
-0.8
2697 .9
2372.7
360.8
345.4
929.7
860.6
1407.4
1166.6
2732.0
2408.4
373 .9
357,1
928.4
877.3
1429.8
1174.0
2799.3
2450.4
410 .2
387.3
93 5.5
879.1
1453.6
1184.0
1,1
0.9
-0.3
-0.5
0.8
1.6
1.7
0.8
1 .3
1 .5
3.6
3.4
-0.1
1 .9
1.6
0.6
2.5
1.7
9.7
8.5
0 .8
0.2
1.7
0.9
669.5
653.2
672.6
658.4
-3.1
-5.2
708.3
684.0
664.4
644.1
43.8
39.9
687.3
664.7
672.8
649.6
14.5
15.1
674.7
648.6
682.3
653 .2
-7 .5
-4.5
5.8
4.7
-1 .2
-2.2
46.9
45.1
-3.0
-2.8
1 .3
0.9
-29.3
-24.8
-1.8
-2.4
1.4
0.6
-22.0
-19.6
855.6
749.4
380 .9
347 .2
474.7
402 .2
836.7
725.2
355.7
320.4
480.9
404.8
860.8
742.2
367 .6
328.9
493.3
413.3
870.4
748.8
365.7
329.3
504.7
419.5
-2.2
-3.2
-6,6
-7.7
1,3
0.6
2 .9
2.3
3 .3
2.7
2 .6
2.1
1.1
0 .9
-0.5
0.1
2.3
1.5
-10.8
-28.0
-3.1
-2.5
-0.2
3.7
-5.6
-10.7
2 .9
3.6
3.5
4.7
0.34
-0.5
-0.6
0.44
2.1
0.8
-8.3
-4.5
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
A. National Income and Product
Al. GNP and Personal Income
200.
50.
217.
213.
224.
225.
227.
Gross national product
Gross national product in 1982 dollars
Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars . ...
Final sales in 1982 dollars
Disposable personal income
Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars.
A.r., dollars ..
A.r., bil. dol..
...do
...do...
A.r., dollars.,
A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230. Total
231.
232.
233.
236.
238.
237.
239.
Total in 1982 dollars
Durable goods
Durable goods in 1982 dollars
Nondurable goods
Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars...
Services
Services in 1982 dollars
Ax, bil. dol..
do.
do .
..do...
. .do..
..do..
. .do.. .
...do. .
A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240.
241.
242.
243.
245.
30.
Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Fixed investment
Fixed investment in 1982 dollars
Change in business inventories3
Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3
.do.,
.do.
do.
..do.
.do.
A4. Government Purchases
of Goods and Services
260.
261.
262.
263.
Total
Total in 1982 dollars
Federal Government
Federal Government in 1982 dollars
266. State and local government
267. State and local government in 1982 dollars.
A5. Foreign Trade
250.
255.
252.
256.
253.
257.
Net exports of goods and services3
Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars3....
Exports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
- 7 7 . 1 -83.7 -105.3 -93.7 -104.5 -110.1
-108.1 -113.8 -132.0 -125.9 -153.9 -164.6
370.0 362.3 368.2 374.8 363.0 373.5
361.2 355.8 362.9 369.2 359.8 372.9
447 .1 446.0 47 3.6 46 8.5 467.5 483.7
46 9.3 46 9.6 494.8 495.1 513.6 537 .5
A6. National Income and Its Components
220.
280.
282.
284.
286.
288.
National income :
Compensation of employees
Proprietors1 income with IVA and CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj
Net interest
290.
295.
292.
298.
293.
Gross saving
Business saving
Personal saving
Government surplus or deficit3
Personal saving rate3
..do..
.do.
. do
...do.
.do..
...do.
NA
2719.5 3032.0 3222.3 3201 .4 3243 .4 3287 .3 3340.7 3376.4
2020.7 2 214.7 2368.2 2352.1 2380 .9 2423.6 2 461 .5 2480.2 2507 .8
236.9 254.4 255.5 249.3 262.1 265.3 289.1 279.3
190.9
16.3
8.3
12.8
16.3
8 .1
7.3
7.6
8.3
13.2
NA
264.7 280.7 274.3 296.3 285.6 296.4 293.1
213.7
311.4 311 .4 309.7 307.6 304.9 297 .7 292.5
281 .0 307.4
1 .6
1 .6
1 .2
54.2
3.8
-0.9
1 .1
0.8
9.0
27 .3
-1.1
-2.4
NA
1 .1
-3.4
0.
NA
-1.7
463.6 573.3 551.5
461.6 506.1 544.5
130.6 168.7 143.3
-128.6 -101.5 - 1 3 6 . 3
6.3
5.1
5.4
11 .3
2.8
15.7
23.5
0.6
-7.5
-0.6
5 .2
-47 .4
0 .1
NA
NA
-42.8
NA
-2.2
A7. Saving
...do..
do..
do..
...do..
Percent
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal
movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of
Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A,
seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption
adjustment.
1
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all
turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U, unclassified.
566.8 541 .7 524.1 583.2 539.7
538.9 560.1 553.5 56 9.2 565.6
183.6 119.6 125 .8 145.6 153.1
-155.6 -138.0 -155.1 -131 .6 -179.0
4.4
5.1
4.2
5.0
6.5
NA
NA
87.5
NA
2.9
!
For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual
figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
3
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
' Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of
the changes are reversed.
* End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for trie
period.
6
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of
the span.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
IA
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
Chart A l . Composite Indexes
Aug. Apr.
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
Nov.
P
Dec. Nov.
P T
Mar.
T
Jan. July July Nov
P T P T
r
^lpol
190180 -
910. Index of twelve leading indicators
(series I, 5» 8,12,19,
170-
( 29,32,36,
,-3
160-
i!
..-ii!
150140-
J K f
H
13012011010090-
180170-
920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators
(series 4JL, 47, 51 t 57i>
160150140130-
\ . ..+1
120110100-
80 J
150-
930. Index of six lagging indicator*
(series 62, 77, 91, ^5, J01,109)
|! Ij
l^Jj
140130120110 -
100*
90-
70-
50-
40 J
1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 1987
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.
10
OCTOBER 1986
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued
July May
P T
Aug. Apr.
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
Dec. Nov.
P T
1
r
Jan. July July Nov.
P T P
T
Nov. Mar.
P:
T
:
~-^~iV^^SA^^Mmzs^fwmpm^m^.r^J'^-»-';r'- ^r~r%<•"—-•, ~~~- -""~
!F""~nr~'-^f -•-"•*R
ik--Hj'HH: W.j!• - • * < | , , * . , | w < i ^ . j ^ j j ' ^ i r | ; ; ; ; | ; j £ * ^ j H , J£;*;.j^ :jJ;;.,,. ^[. , |,,,.....;.;Y-*' ••*• -
•tiivXirrxi tS'^'i P * ^ l-*>-*-> L^-*i^i^i ••
..;.••-•
*
••*•
*
4
f
'
^
••
•j ( >
i ;
* •
•
i
;
• * • • * « f " • " • « • ' "
;
! r
•'
)
i
•
•
•'•
>•
; <
:
1 i
-•
•
.j
- .
o \ . . •
v.
.•
j.
•.•'•.
••-<'{*
'>••• ' - a i
•.••-•••
• •••;••
- - ^
r :
-
:
'
y
-
:
••-<:
'
(
'
•"
•
• • '
• ' '
v1|..ii::t:^^s ? H ^
1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 1987
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.
IICII OCTOBER 1986
11
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
I
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components
July May
P
Aug. Apr.
T
P
T
Dec. Nov.
P T
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Nov. (War.
P
T
Jan. July July Nov.
F T P
T
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours)
State programs (thousands—inverted scale)
8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
and materials industries (biK dol.) 1 L.L,L
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower
tfct
12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipments
1982 dollars (bii. dol.)
1950 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67
69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 8§ 86 1987
Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 , 64, 65, and 66.
12
OCTOBER 1986
ItCII
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
July May
PT
Aug. Apr.
P
T
Apr, Feb.
P
Dec. Nov.
PT
T
29. New private homing nnjts authored hy kir.al
Nov.
Mar.
Jan. July July Nov.
P T P T
PT
l
36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bil.
li I.I
99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10)
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bl. dol.)
111. Change in businessand consumer credit outstanding
1950 51 52 53 54 55 5§ 57 58 59 §0 61 62 63 64 65 6® 67 6© 6® 7C 71 72 73
7®
17
'This is a weighted 4 - t e r m moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 7 1 , and 72.
ItCII OCTOBER 1986
13
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
Jan. July July Nov.
p T p
July May
P T
4 1 Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions
51. Personal income less transfer payments in
|| 1982 dollars (Wjrate; bl. M )
CXX
47. Industrial p r o d u c M ^ x : 1977=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade
1982 dollars ( b l d o l )
1950 51 52 93 54 55 56 97 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 7% 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 SO 81
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.
14
OCTOBER 1986
BCD
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
|
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
Jan. July July Nov.
F T P
T
. jfottoj manufacturigiptrMe linve^t^ifertd safegjn
i62:mm c*t pr
Average prime fate charged byfeianks(percertt)
1950 51
52 53 54 59 96 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 198J
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.
ItCII OCTOBER 1986
15
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment
Apr.
Fab.
Dec.
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
P
T
P
T
Jan. July
P
T
July
P
Nov
T
[Marginal Employment Adjustments]
1. Average weekly hours of production orj ^supervisory workers,
manufacturing (hours)
jjL,L,L [
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing (hours) h c L
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (thousands—inverted scale)
advertising in newspapers to number
46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers (index: 1967=1007
J
1959
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
82
33
84
8S
Current data for these series are shown on page 6 1 .
16
OCTOBER 1986
BCD
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P
T
to.
Dec. Um.
P
T
EV3ar.
T
P
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
:]CT:
190-
I; |ConrjfrreriefTsive Employment [
M
180-
H* YLlz^2_fcM
U Employee
170-
Jkhmpnk
(ann. riterbii. hours)
160-
2m
: ., . , , i ^
[:•••*
i
-
1501401101
;;:• , = 4
! , * • , v i i - il
! ,
- r i, -.!
1 .,
|
:
•,
:
::
;r
•'•. - ; j
-
i
•,
•
. j;
.»jj,,
,
:* j ;
;
•;
105'
LSI
f|
••
•
•^ji^w
••:
100 -
' I ]
95-
y
42. Persons; e n g a ^ l t noriagricultur^l
y^
90-
A_
85'
80'
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions)
75-
J^
7065-
•y\\
•*:\\-M
28
40. Employees on nonagricultural payrd! goods-produci:ing J
industries
26-
•Ik
I LCUL;
25-
YZl
y_
24-
-J
1/L
MM:
23-
• W i
22-
2-
v\Av
T
• 27-
2120 J
61-
3 ^
^>^
90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of wooing
605958575655-
TfST
§4uuijuujLa !f.ryl;s'f-Ajl:J!.ii=:rjLrHl i^Ui.rLnJLfL/LftiJ..J!.1 li, ; iU ..iiJa.iJ
1959 6©
€1
62
63
S4
®S
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
\.IO
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62.
ItCII OCTOBER
1986
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Jan. July July
F T P
F
Nov.
T
[Comprehensive Unemployment[
37. Number of persons unemployed (millions—inverted scale)
7-
9-
1113-
43. Unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale)
4-
IL.tg.Ul
\
5-
"\
6-
10*
11-
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (percent—inverted scale)
IL.U.UI
/
91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)
-fcj//'
vs
Y/u~
j "
1
^
*+^^
| LgfLgfLg |
E
\ ^
\
r
12-
20*
44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale)
!
!
^^ "
S.
__
IU.U.UI
1-
V
A
V /
2-
/
345-
1959 60
il
62
63
64
Si
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80 81
S3
84 85
Current data for these series are shown on page 62.
18
OCTOBER 1986
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B2. Production and Income
Apr.
Feb.
P
T
ive Output and Income [
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q
Personal ineoni less transfer payhietitsi In
1982 dollars, mining
195® S©
62.
©2
63
64
65
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
7S
7S
77
S i 198S
Current data for these series are shown on page 63.
OCTOBER 1986
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued
Jan. July
T
July
P
Nov.
T
| Industrial Production |
47. Industrial production (index: 1977-100)
Industrial production, durable manufa
Industrial production, nondurable manufactures
(index:? 1977-100)
Value of goods output in 1982 dollars, Q
(ant), rate, bit. dol.)
[Capacity Utilization]
82. Capacity utilization rate, rnanufyturing (percent)
80-
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (percent)
tfi,
Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
20
OCTOBER 1986
KCII
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Apr.
Feb.
P
T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
1 Orders and Deliveries |
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
Jan. July
P
July
Nov.
P
T
T
7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods
industries (bil. i
6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars,
durahie goorfo industries (bi). doL)
. Manufacturers1 new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer
goods and materials industries (bil. doL)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
] industries (bil. doL; MOD moving avg.—4-term)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving:slower deliveriesipercent) ^ ^
1959
®@
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.
ItCII OCTOBER 1986
21
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued
Jan. July
F
T
July
Now.
P
T
| Consumption and Trade |
57. Manufacturing and trade safes
in 1982 dollars j ( b i f , d o l . ) \
Manufacturing and trade sales m current
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
ij
(index: 197[7~100)
CL.C
59. Sales of retail storfes in 1982 dollars (bil. <fci.) j
U,L,U
54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars
clu
55. Persona) consumption expenditures,
(ana rate, bil. doi.)
C.(f
58. Index of consumer sentiment (istQ 1966=100)
19S9 60
61
62
63
64
69
66
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.
22
OCTOBER 1986
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Dec.
P
Nov.
T
Nov.
P
Mar.
T
Jan. July • July
P T
P
Nov.
T
1 Formation of Business Enterprises 1
12. Net business formation (index: 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 1 7 0 ?
13. New business incorporations (thousands)
Pi
[Business Investment Commitments]
20, Contracts and orders for plant and equipment.
in 1982 dollars ( b i l . d o l O : f i X r |
/
u
„ .
v
" ^
\
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in current dollars (HI. dot.) 11_ LL
27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982dollars, nondefense
capital goods industries (bil. doL)[L,L,L
Manufacturers new oraers in current aonars, nonaeTense
capital goods industries (bii. doi.) n ~ [ X
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial Vv 5
buildings (mil sq. ft. of floor space; MCD moving avg,—5-term)1 [L ( C t U
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
83
84
85 198S
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.
BCII OCTOBER 1986
23
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Jan. July Jyly
F T P
NOT.
T
[Business Investment Commitments—Con,
97. Backlog of capital
corporations, Q (bil. dol.)
1,000 manufacturing
CLgl
Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing corporations, Q (bil. do).)
in 1982 dollars for new ptynt and equip™"*
pte.bil.dol.)
|Business Investment Expenditures]
61. Expenditures in current dollars for new plant and
equipment, Q(ann. rate, bit. dol.)
Clg.l
69. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures
(ann. rate, bil. doi.)
76. Industrial production, business equipment
!l (Wex: 1977-100) ["£77711
10
61
62
63
64
69
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
74
75
76 77
80
81
82
83 84
85 1936
Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.
24
OCTOBER 1986
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Apr.
Feb.
Dec.
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
P
I
P
T
Jan. July
P
T
July
Nov.
P
T
1 Business Investment Expenditures—Con.J
Gross private nonresidentlal fixed investment in 1982 dollars (ann. rate, &1I. <foff)
jr
88. Producers' durable equipment, Q
120-
Inessential Construction Commitments and Investment[!|
•
,
i
tj
\
\
j
28. New private housing units started (ann. rate, millions)
2.6 «i
2.42.22.0*
1.6-
1.2-
new private housing units autnortzea oy iccat ounaing permits
140120100-
89. Gross^private residential fixed,investment in
1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bit, dot.),
'
200-
t
180160-
i \i,
140-
7
120100-
1959 SO
€1
62
63
64
©5
66
67
J2
73
75
76
17
78
79
80
81
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
OCTOBER 1986
25
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Apr.
Feb.
P
T
Nov.
P
Dec. Nov.
P
T
[Inventory Investment]
Mar.
T
J?n. July
P
T
July
Urn.
P
T
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
;
+ S0-
full
+ 60+ 30-
=±£
36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order
in 1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. d d ; movihg avg.—4-term1)
31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories, boooakifi
(ann. rate, bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
iV
n
\^*^^
38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on
and on order, book value (bil. dol.;
LL
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
8§ 198i
'This Is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.
26
OCTOBER 1 9 8 6
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P T
Nov.
P
Dec. Nov.
P
T
I Invefttories on Hand and on Order]
Jan. July
P T
Mar.
T
July
P
Nov.
T
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories; in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)^
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories;
book value (bil. dot.) :
65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods.
book value_(bil. dbl.)
,Lg,
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars
1.8 - |
U1.6-
V\^
1.51.4-
78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order.book value (bil. dol.) — ^ ~
280 i
260240 220200 «
180160140 120-
/
I L,Lg,Li j
100-
80-
40 J
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
J® 77
83
84
89 198S
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.
KCII
OCTOBER 1986
27
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Apr. Feb.
P T
Nov.
P
Dee. Nov.
P
T
| Sensitive Commodity Prices |
Jan. July
P T
fc
T
July
P
Nov.
I
98. Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and
intermediate materials (percent; MCD moving avg.—6:term)
99. Change in sensitive materials prices (percent; moving
avg.-4-term1) f T m
23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials2 (index: 1967 = 100)
I
f
V
260 -
Rul]
220 180-
140 J
260220*
IStoclk Prices
180 «
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43-10)
140-
100*
so*
j Profits and Profit Margins]
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, biL dol.) W\_\\
240-
16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)
\
7i
JS 11
84
8§ 1986
'This is a weighted 4-term moving average {with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
'Beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be rreproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
28
OCTOBER 1 9 8 6
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
1 Profits and Profit Margins—Con.
Dec.
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
P
T
Jan.July
P
T
July
P
Nov
T
80. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj ijc
79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in
current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
C.I
7%. Mkt
_
^ p o r a t e domestic profits after tax to corporate
^s™^^
81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and
CCAdj to corporate domestic inconW, Q (percent)
\
/
\ Vi
ce deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars, Q ^ ^
(ann. rate. biL 6a\.)
U
34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars, Q
(arm. rate, bil. dol.)
1SS9
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.
BCII OCTOBER 1986
29
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Apr.
Fab.
Dec.
Nov.
NOT.
Mar.
P
T
P
T
P
T
—ft«———.
Jan. July
P
T
July
Nov.
P
T
,
in
nitjlLabor Costs and Labor Share |
In)
160
130
120
63. Unit tybor cost, business sectdr, Q
(index; 1977=100)
100'
0.75
0.701
0.S5'
68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product in
1982 dollars, nonfiiiandal corporations, Q (ilollar^
/
z:
0.60*
0.55
0.50
ITgiiiJT
62. Labor itost per unit of output, manufacturing
(Mexij 1977-100)
100
ip^
\A
80'
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income,
Q (percent)
78'
TTS:
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
30
OCTOBER 1986
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit
Apr.
Feb.
Dec.
Nov.
T
P
T
Jan. July
P
I
July
P
Nov.
T
35. Change in money supply Ml
(percent; MCD moving avg,—6-term)|L,L,Lj
102. Change in money supply M2
(percent; MOD moving avg.—6i r li'l!
104. Change in total liquid
105. Money sgpply M l in 198? dollars
m
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
inn
107. Ratio, gross national product to money:
|Velocity of Money]
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2ii(ratio) [C,Lg,C
§7
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
7S
76
77
78
79
Current data for these series are shown on page 7 1 .
ItCII OCTOBER 1986
31
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Nov.
P
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Jan. July
P T
Mar.
T
July
P
Nov.
T
| Credit Flows]
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions,
and life insurance companies (ana rate, bil^doj)
its
112. Net change in business loans (ann. rate, bil. doi.;
MCD moving avg.—fyterm)
113. Net change in consumer installment credit
(ann. rate, bit doi.; MCD moving avg.i-6-t^pn)
i
il A
+go-
"
111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (am, rate
12©©WOO*
110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets, Q (ann. ^bte, bil. dol.) i. » . i i
! —
!l
IL»L'L1 H
'
600-
ii
x^
T
200-
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
84
8S 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.
32
OCTOBER 1 9 8 6
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Apr.
Feb.
Dec,
Nov.
P
T
P
T
nov.
Mar.
Jan. July
T
p
P
July
P
T
....
Urn
T
_
HH
jCredtt Difficulties]
f t Current liabiWes o t t u l i s failures (ml dlilA
Inverted scafe; MC|m^irtg avg.—6-term)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over
(percent^invert|d scale)'
93, Free rj^eVves (bil.[dol.-Jinvertfeti sc|le)
Ptu
94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve (bil. dol.)
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
7S
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
8S 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
Ml)
OCTOBER 1986
33
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
P
Dec.
P
T
Nov.
P
Nov.
I
Jan. July
P T
T
July
P
NOV
i
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day
treasury bills (percent) fc,Lg,Lg[ \
Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (percent)
C,Lg,L
Secondary Market yields on FHA mortgaged
117. Yield on municipal t^nds ( p-bond average (percent)
1959 60
61
$2
63
04
69
00
07
08
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
70
77
78
79
80
81
Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.
34
OCTOBER 1986
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Jan. July
P
T
July
Nov.
P
T
I Interest Rates4Con.
19; ftyejrage (jrirtie rate c ^ g e q by banks (percent)
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in
;i982;aoilars|(bil. del.)
I Outstanding Debt I
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
l !&$
66. Consumer in^aUme^t credit ouprtdiftg (bit dot)
consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income
I (percent) M l
1959 6©
SI
@2 63
64
ii
66
68
69
70
71 72
73
74 75
76
77 78 79
80 81
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
ItCII OCTOBER 1986
35
(BYOUSAL BNI
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes
Apr.
Feb.
Dec.
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
P
T
P
T
950. Twelve leading indicator components (6-mo. spaft
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Piov.
T
, 1-mo. s p a n — )
50-
951. Four roughly coincident Indicator component^ (6-mo. span
, 1-mo. span—-)
100-
nniiilisiiliiJHijjin lllfi
952. Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. sp$tt—u 1-mo. s p a n — )
961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20
manufacturing industries (9-mo. span.—, 1-mo. span.--)
100-
962. initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas
(percent declining; 9-mo. s p a n ^ - , 1-mo. span---)
50-
963. Employees on private nonagricultura! payrolls, 172-186 industries
(6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span---)
WBB
(SO
§H
$2
(S3
(S$
6S
71
72
100 T
77
78
79
80
81
83
84
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
36
OCTOBER 1986
KCII
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P
Dec. Nov.
T
P
T
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries
(9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span- - -)
:
Jan. July
P
T
July
Nov.
P
T
I Percent rising I
manufacturing industries (4-Q moving avg**«, 1-Q span***)
i
VA
.l___44_,XiL.™
966. Industrial production, 24 industries (6-mo. span—^ 1-mo. span-.-)
^967." Spot market prices, H raw IndustrfarmaTeTMTs'
(9-mo. span-—, 1-mo. span - - -)
§0-
. StdcTpricesTBOO conimdn
(9-mo. span^—> 1-mo. span---)
IOOT
960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies1 (4-Q span)
1959
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
OCTOBER 1986
37
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
Mar.
Jan.
P
T
July
July
Nov.
T
P
T
Jan.
F
T
July
Hm.
P
T
T
Actual
Anticipated
rcent
July
Actual
Anticipated
| N b e n t rising 11
~-~-*
•• >••<•
970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment,
21 industries (1-Q span)!!
(a) Actual expenditures
174. Number of ernptoyiies, m|nttlacturifi j^nd trade ( f 4 J span)
975 Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
(a) Actual expenditures
100 T
976, Seirig prices, ma(iulacturin| (4-Q span)1
971. New orders, mjtnufacturmg! (4-Q span)1
10090-
70-
so972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
!! 977 SeHmg prices, whtjleiale trade|i(4-Q span)1
973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
|i 978. Setting pricies, retjai trade (4|Q sp^n)
$
78
79
§©
81
82
S3
84
85 1986
1974 79
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
S3
84
85 1986
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400
business executives.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
38
OCTOBER 1986
K€l»
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C3. Rates of Change
Apr. Feb.
P T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
Jan. July
P
T
July
Nov,
P
T
l^month spans - - j j ~
3-month spans
I Percent change at annual rate I
910c, Composite index of twelve leading indicators'
920c. Composite index of four roughly coincident
: i wv¥A
CSJLl
-10-
930c. Composite index of six lagging indicators ii
47c. Index of industrial production
50cv Gross national product|irt I9«2 dollars (1-Q s 0 ) . j!
48c. Employee hours in nonagricu
51c. Personal income lijss transfer
payments in 1982 doflars
1959 60
U
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
79
76
77
78
79
NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published.
licit OCTOBER 1986
39
IR IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A l . GNP and Personal Income
Apr.
Feb.
P
T
Dec. Hw.
P
T
Jan. July
P
T
July
Nov.
P
T
45004000350030002500-
200, Gross national product in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
2000-
1500-
223. Personal income in current dollars
(ann, rate, bH. do!.) \
|
1000
\i
224. Disposable personal income in current
dollars, Q (jam. rate, bil. dol.)
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars, Q !i
(ann. rate, bil. dol)
"*"
213. Final sales in 1982 dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. dot.)
utsposame personal income in
Q (ann. rate, bi. dol.)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1
(ann. rate, thous. dol.)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in
70
71
72
73
74
75
7©
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85 1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.
40
OCTOBER 1986
BCD
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Apr.
Feb.
Osc.
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
P
T
P
T
1
Jan.July
P
T
July
P
Now.
T
| Annual rate, billion dollars (ojirart)L
—^——
2000-
Personal consumption expenditures—
1800-
Annual rate, billion dollars (1982)!
1959 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 8 1 .
Bill OCTOBER 1986
41
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
Apr.
Feti.
F
T
Dae.
Jan J u l y
Nov.
P
P
T
I
July
Nov.
P
T
Gross private domestic investment—
19S0 6©
61
62
63
64
6§
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
Current data for these series are shown on page 81,
42
OCTOBER 1986
ItCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—-Continued
Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Apr.
Feb.
P
T
Jan. July
T
July
Mov.
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)!
Government purchases of goods and services—
266. State and local
government, Q
262. Federal Government, Q
[Annual rate, bilon dollars (1982)j
267. State and local government, Q
263. Federal! Government
19§9 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
$7
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
7§
Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .
ItCII OCTOBER 1986
43
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC HEASUf
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A5. Foreign Trade
[Annual rate, b i o n dollars (current))
252. Exports of goods ftid services, Q —*~
2531 Imports of goods and services, Q
250. Net exports of goods and services, Q
Annual rate, billion doflars (1982)1
257. Imports of goods and services, Q
256. Exports of goods and services, Q
255. Net exports of goods and services^
19&9
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
44
OCTOBER 1986
KCII
A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A6. National Income and Its Components
i. July
P
T
July
Nov.
P
T
Annual rate, biflkm dollars (current) |
220. National income, Q
280. Compensation of employees, Q
286. Corporate profits before t a x j # j n v ^ ^ ^
consumption adjustments. Q ^ ~
^
Sv 7
„/
288. NetjnierestjQ
Proprietors' income wjth inventory; valuation and
capital consumption adjustments, Q
ii
284. Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment, Q
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
OCTOBER 1986
45
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A7. Saving
Apr. Fab.
P
T
Jan. July
P T
Nov.
P
Dec. Nov.
P
T
July
P
Nov.
T
Annual rate, bjofj doflars (current)]^
298* Government surplus or deficit, Q
293. Personal saving rate, Q
jfe/^L,.
A;
v* 7
%7
A^
V/
74
75
7S
77
78
79
.m
V
84
85 19S®
Current data for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83.
46
OCTOBER 1986
IECII
©1MEM
IA
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income
Apr. Feb.
P
Dec.
P
T
T
Nov.
?
Mar.
T
i. July
I
July
P
Now.
T
65 i -
2IH
268, State and local government purchases
of goods and services, Q
151
265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q f
248. Nonresidential fixed investment, Q
5-
249. Residential fixed investment, Q
- 247. Change in business inventories, Q
251. Net exports of goods and services, Q
= 5J
| Percent of National Income |
64. Compensation of employees, Q
75-
70-
287. Corporate profits before tax With inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q
10-
283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q
285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q
Current data for these series are shown on page 83.
BCII OCTOBER 1986
47
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
Chart B l . Price M o v e m e n t s
Jan.
July
July
Jan.
Nov.
F T P
July
F T P
T
310CL Implicit price deflator for gros>
I national product (1~Q span)
July
Nov.
T
| Percent change at annual rate
jilO. Implicit price deflator fof
national product, Q
311c, Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product
311. Fixed-weightecLpdceiodfix
I domestic business product. 0
Index: 1967—1001
330^
All commodities
s
331c. Crude materials for
further processing
331.
Crude materials for
2
J\
I! 332c. Intermediate material
supplies, and componefits
333c. Capital equipment
334c. Finished consumer goods
^ • 3 3 4 . Finished consujner goods
L A . I I J U U
.•) s. -'. i> .•.;• : '
1974 7S
76
-.••: • .:. : .. •.
77
78
:
-•
•
79
-
SI
fiJU.JU::.
32
-.•• - : : ,.-•'
S3
84
1974 75
7S
77
78
79 SO
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.
48
OCTOBER 1986
KCII
ER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
322. All urban consumers, food-
100 •
| Percent change at annual rate]
+ 20 -
320c. All urban consumers (6-month span)
4-20*
322c. All urban consumers, food (6-month span) I
+10 «
0-
-ioChart B2. Wages and Productivity
[Index: 1977=* lOOl
20©-
341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisor^
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls1
340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (current dollars)1
200180160140-
346. Real average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q
043.
Hverage; nouny compensation, an employees,
120-
60-
nonfarm business sector, Q (current dollars)
4©-
67
6S
69
70 71
73
74
'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.
l t d ) OCTOBER 1986
49
ilPQRTAIMT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P
Dec. Nov.
T
P
T
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
bn.hly
P
T
July
Nov.
P
T
| Percent change]
[Wages—Con. |
Change in average hourly iarrrtngs of production or
workers on private nonagrfcultural payrolls 1 "^
6-month spanl ( w j rate)
340c. Current-dollar e a r n i n g s ? * * / ? ^
*jf
2
1-month spans
HP
—
^r^^^^i^Af
—r-UU4-'»i|fm
341c.
=:,^=»»—
-r— ^ tj-month spans (ann. rate;
J "i
J
i; I
~T" ~~
vy FS;
* I ;|
" 4 ^" i f "
' [9] 1
Change in average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q—
345c. Current-dollar compensation
i-quarter spans (ann. rate
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions—
348. Average first-year changes, Q (ann. rate)
349; Average changes over life of
contract, Q (ann. rate)
+ 5
1 Index: 1977-1001
1W-
358. Output per hour, all persons,
nonfarm business sector, Q
J/U.
uutpui per nour, an persons,
business sector, Q
70'
370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q \
1 Percent change [
-.i-miartwr snam /annJrateV
74
75
7S
77
78 79
'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality. a One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable
with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.
50
OCTOBER 1986 I M J )
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
Apr. Feb.
P T
Dec.
P
Nov.
T
Nov.
P
Mar.
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
, 441. Civilian labor force (millions)
l
442. Civilian employment (millions)
Civilian labor force participation rates (percent)—
451, Males 20 years and over
453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Number unemployed (millions)—
37. Persons unemployed
444. Males 20 years
and over
446. Both sexes 16T19 ye^rs ofage
447. Number unemployed, full-time
Workers (millions)
448. Number of persons employed part time for
economic reasons (millions)
1959 6©
61
62
@3
64
65
§6
68
Si
70
71
72 73
Current data for these series are shown on page 89.
OCTOBER 1986
51
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC SiEASURI
I£) I
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures
| Annual rate, b i t o dolars (current)|
502. Federal Government expenditures, Q
501. Federal Government receipts, Q
Government surplus or deficit, Q
511. State and local government receipts, Q
512. State and! focal government expenditures, Q
510. State and local government surplus or deficit, Q
1959 m
$1
82
$3
64
Si
Si
Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
52
OCTOBER 1986
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators
Apr. Feb.
P T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
i. July
P T
July
P
Wov.
T
1 Advance Measures of Defense Activity
517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(bil. doL: MCD moving avg.—6-rtam),
525. Defense Department prime contract awards
(bil. do!.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
!„>!*? b, 1
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (bil. dol.)
548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products
(bit. dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
84
8S 1986
Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
tun
OCTOBER 1986
53
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
Dec.
f
T
P
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
' T
Jan. July
P
I
July
P
Nov.
T
220 °i
200 -
| Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity | i!
180-
557. Industrial production, defense and space equipment
(index: 1977 ^ 1 M )
140 *
120100-
262218-
14-
559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book value
(IbiLdol.)
I! j!
160140120 -
100-
69-
561. Manufacturers' united orders.
402420-
16-
12-
580. Defense Department net outlays, military
assistance; (bil. dol.)
4-
588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products
(bil.|idoL)
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 .
54
OCTOBER 1 9 8 6
KCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
Apr. Feb.
P
I
Nov.
P
Dec. Mow.
P
1
Mm.
T
Jan. July
F
T
July
P
Kov.
T
| Intermediate and Final Measures pf Defense Activity—Cpn. [
570. Emptoyment, defense products industries (millions)
personnel ( m f c i s )
577. Military personnel! on active duty
<
—
1578. Civilian personnel, direct hire employment
I National Defense Purchases!
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and
defense, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
_
L!l
J-I
\
i
565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP, Q (percent)
63
64
65
Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 .
BCII
OCTOBER 1986
55
R IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Chart E l . Merchandise Trade
Apr.
Feb.
P
T
Jan. July
F
T
July
P
T
602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments
(bil. dot.)
604. Exports of domestic agricultural products
(U.doL)
606. Lxports ot nonelectrical machinery
(bil. dol.)
612. General imports (bil.
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (bl. doT)
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
Current data for these series are shown on page 92.
56
OCTOBER 1986
BCII
i EC®M®MD©
E
I
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
Apr. Feb.
P
Dsc.
Mov
Nov.
Mar
P
T
T
kr
P
Jj'y
"i:ly
Hov.
T
P
T
[Annual rate, billion dollars 1
667. Balance on goods and services, Q
622. Balance on merchandise trade, Q
651. U.S. investment abroad, Q
652. Foreign investment in the United States, Q
72
73
76
77
78
}j
79
Current data for these series are shown on page 93.
ItCI)
OCTOBER 1986
57
MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart F l . Industrial Production
Apr,
Feb.
P
T
Dec.
P
Nov.
P
NOT.
T
Jan. July
P T
to.
T
July
P
Nov.
T
I Index: 1977=1001
180160 «
Industrial production^-
140120-
10©-
48 J
HI
140120-
/
727. Italy
725. West Germany
^ 4 7 . United States
^
^
1401
120100-
726. France
80*
/
47. United States
1959 6©
61
§2
S3
64
Si
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
Current data for these series are shown on page 94.
58
OCTOBER 1986
BUI
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Chart F3. Stock Prices
Chart F2. Consumer Prices
Jan. July
F
1974
75
76
11
IB
79
80
81
32
33
84
85
T
July
P
Nov.
T
1986
Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96
OCTOBER
1986
59
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
I
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
Q
Year
and
month
910. Index of
twelve leading
indicators (series
1,5,8.12,19,
20, 29, 32, 36,
99, 106. Ill)
(1967-100)
920. Index of
four roughly
coincident indicators (series
41,47,51,57)
(1967 = 100)
930. Index of
six lagging indicators (series
62, 77, 91, 95,
101, 109)
(1967-100)
COMPOSITE INDEXES
940. Ratio,
coincident index
to lagging index
Leading indicator subgroups
914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29)
915. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 8, 32, 36,
99)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
916. Profitability (series
19, 26, 80)
(1967-100)
917. Money and
financial flows
(series 104, 106,
111)
(1967 = 100)
1984
January
February
March
164.5
166.5
,167.2
149.5
150.6
151.1
109.8
111.3
112.8
K)136.2
135.3
134.0
110.3
0)111.5
110.8
106.1
106.8
107.5
109.2
108.4
109.3
133.4
134.8
136.3
April
May
June
168.1
168.2
166.7
152.6
153.9
155.4
114.6
116.4
117.5
133.2
132.2
132.3
110.7
110.7
111.1
E)107.9
107.7
106.0
110.1
110.8
110.5
136.6
138.1
138.0
July
August
September
163.9
164.4
165.7
155.7
156.0
156.5
118.8
119.8
131.1
130.2
137.3
136.9
i on o
it. 3 . J
11U. H
104.6
103.6
1 n^ ft
L\J3 .O
110.3
111.7
LC i.. U
109.6
110.3
11 n A
119 9
lie. c
10/.
October
November
December
164.2
165.1
164.1
156.5
157.7
158.8
122.0
121.7
121.9
128.3
129.6
130.3
109.3
109.8
109.3
103.8
103.4
102.3
112.4
112.8
112.5
135.5
136.0
136.3
January
February
March
166.3
167.1
167.4
158.4
159.0
159.3
123.7
124.3
125.4
128.1
127.9
127.0
109.2
111.0
110.8
102.6
102.5
102.0
113.1
114.1
114.2
139.0
138.6
138.9
April .
May
June
166.7
167.1
167.7
160.5
160.2
159.5
125.1
126.7
126.5
128.3
126.4
126.1
110.0
109.7
110.1
101.8
101.6
101.5
114.5
115.0
115.8
137.1
135.9
135.6
July .
August .
September
169.2
169.8
170.6
159.7
160.9
160.9
126.9
127.2
128.4
125.8
126.5
125.3
110.5
110.6
111.2
101.5
101.5
101.6
116.7
116.9
115.6
137.7
139.0
140.0
October
November
December
171.6
171.6
173.7
160.8
161.6
163.0
129.7
129.7
130.2
124.0
124.6
125.2
110.3
109.5
rll0.5
102.1
102.3
102.7
114.8
114.9
116.7
rl41.1
rl40.6
rl41.9
January
February
March
173.5
rl74.9
176.0
162.9
rl63.4
rl62.9
131.8
132.0
0)133.1
123.6
rl23.8
rl22.4
109.0
rll0.8
110.6
103.3
103.4
103.3
117.7
119.6
rl20.3
rl42.2
140.5
139.9
April
May
June
178.3
178.2
rl77.7
H>rl65.6
164.2
rl63.7
131.4
132.5
132.2
126.0
123.9
123.8
111.2
109.8
rlO9.9
103.6
103.2
102.6
rl20,5
rl20.2
rl21.1
rl40.3
rl42.8
^143.0
179.5
179.3
H) 1 180.1
rl64.5
164.6
2
164.4
rl32.0
132.1
3
131.4
rl24.6
rl24.6
P125.1
rll0.8
rlO9.6
P109.9
rlO2.7
rlO2.3
P102.5
rl20.7
E)pl21.4
<NA)
rl45.7
rl46.6
E>P147.5
0
1985
1986
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by 0 ) . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.
1
Excludes series 36, for which data are not available.
2
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
3
lixcludes scries 77 and 95, for which data are not available.
60
OCTOBER 1986
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q
Minor Economic
Process
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Timing Class
Year
and
month
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
L, C, L
L.C.L
L,L,L
1. Average weekly hours
of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing
(Hours)
Comprehensive
Employment
Job Vacancies
L, Lg, U
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production
or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing
5. Average weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs1
(Hours)
(Thous.)
60. Ratio, help-wanted
advertising in newspapers
to number oi persons
unemployed
(Ratio)
U.C.C
L, Lg, U
46. Index of help-wanted
advertising in newspapers
(1967 = 100)
48. Employee hours in
nonagricultural establishments
(Ann. rate,
bil. hours)
1984
January
February
March
40.7
41.1
40.7
3.5
3.5
3.5
©345
348
0.407
0.434
0.420
123
129
124
173.95
175.61
174.92
E>41.1
40.7
40.6
3.6
3.4
3.4
360
348
350
0.421
0.435
0.484
124
125
134
176.54
176.34
177.29
July
August
September
40.6
40.5
40.6
3.4
3.3
3.3
365
358
368
0.486
0.448
0.458
138
128
129
177.68
178.12
178.93
October
November
December
40.5
40.5
40.5
3.4
3.4
3.3
405
397
386
0.483
0.497
0.523
136
137
145
178.73
179.90
180.16
January
February
March
40.5
40.1
40.5
3.3
3.3
3.3
378
402
389
0.493
0.500
0.500
140
141
141
180.23
180.17
181.38
April
May
June
40.3
40.4
40.5
3.3
3.2
3.2
387
383
392
0.468
0.467
0.498
132
132
141
181.05
181.65
181.88
July
August
September
40.4
40.6
40.7
3.2
3.3
3.3
381
375
381
0.499
0.490
0.489
141
134
136
181.80
182.58
183.11
October
November
December
40.7
40.7
40.9
3.4
3.4
H>3.6
367
371
391
0.502
0.525
0.538
140
144
H>145
184.42
184.58
184.81
January
February
March
40.8
40.7
40.7
3.5
3.4
3.4
375
384
393
[H>0.543
0.495
0.488
143
142
138
185.63
185.29
185.41
April
May
June
40.7
40.7
40.6
3.4
3.4
3.3
374
378
378
0.471
0.445
0.497
132
128
141
185.82
185.76
185.45
40.6
40.8
p40.8
r3.4
3.5
p3.5
370
379
369
0.509
0.497
pO.479
140
134
pl34
rl85.90
rl86.66
E>pl86.73
April
May
June
364
1985
1986
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
*Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source
OCTOBER 1986
gency.
61
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
Q j
PROCESS
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued
Minor Economic
Comprehensive Employment—Continued
Process
Timing Ctass
Year
and
month
U.C.C
42. Number
of persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities
(Thous.)
C.C.C
41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls
(Thous.)
L, C, U
40. Employees
on nonagncultural payrolls,
goodsproducing
industries
{Thous.)
Comprehensive Unemployment
U, Ur U
90. Ratio,
civilian employment to population of
working age
(Percent)
L, Lg, U
L, Lg, U
37. Number of
persons unemployed
43. Unemployment rate
(Thous.)
(Percent)
L, Lg. U
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programsl
(Percent)
Lg, Lg, Lg
91. Average
duration of
unemployment
Lg, Lgt Lg
44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)
(Weeks)
1984
January
February
March
99,918
100,491
100,689
92,568
93,076
93,369
24,213
24,427
24,494
58.07
58.38
58.39
8,982
8,837
8,775
8.0
7.8
3.0
2.9
2.9
20.5
7.8
18.9
2.9
2.7
2.6
April
May
June
100,992
101,826
102,206
93,743
94,041
94,408
24,605
24,681
24,784
58.54
58.98
59.15
8,765
8,547
8,238.
7.8
7.5
7.2
2.8
2.7
2.8
18.6
18.6
18.1
2.5
2.5
2.3
July
August
September
102,134
101,952
102,059
94,707
94,956
95,269
24,882
24,911
24,881
59.03
8,456
8,496
7.4
7.5
2.7
2.7
18.0
17.5
2.3
2.3
oo.oy
O , JOU
7 A
1 . H
o 7
C . /
17
1/ . C
1.3
October
November
December
102,464
102,576
102,861
95,607
95,966
96,147
24,913
24,927
24,988
58.97
59.09
59.18
8,379
8,194
8,256
7.3
7.2
7.2
2.7
2.8
2.8
16.8
17.1
17.1
2,2
2.1
2.1
January
February
March
102,996
103,262
103,637
96,366
96,507
96,870
25,008
24,931
24,971
59.20
59.30
59.45
8,439
8,395
8,384
7.4
7.3
7.3
2.9
2.9
2.9 •
15.9
16.0
15.9
2.0
2.1
2.1
April
May
June
103,519
103,655
103,461
97,104
97,338
97,442
24,996
24,949
24,897
59.37
59.35
59.12
8,384
8,400
8,423
7.3
7.3
7.3
2.8
2.8
2.8
16.1
15.0
15.5
2.1
2.0
2.0
July
August
September
103,751
104,115
104,502
97,672
97,890
98,128
24,875
24,880
24,843
59.21
59.34
59.46
8,401
8,133
8,271
7.3
7.1
7.1
2.8
2.8
2.8
15.5
15.5
15.5
2.0
2.0
2.0
October
November . .
December . . . .
104,755
104,899
105,055
98,428
98,666
98,910
24,903
24,931
24,977
59.56
59.59
59.67
8,301
8,161
8,023
7.1
7.0
6.9
2.7
E>2.7
2.8
15.4
15.7
15.4
2.0
1.9
1.9
January
February
March . .
105,655
105,465
105,503
99,296
99,429
99,484
E>25,101
25,038
24,945
59.90
59.63
59.70
(H>7,831
8,527
8,419
E>6.7
7.3
7.2
2.8
2.8
2.8
14.9
15.3
14.4
1.8
2.0
1.9
April
May
June
105,670
105,950
106,508
99,783
99,918
99,843
25,038
24,965
24,854
59.70
59.77
60.02
8,342
8,554
8,443
7.1
7.3
7.1
2.8
2.8
2.8
106,769
rl00,105
rl00,261
0)plOO,368
r24,869
r24,886
p24,843
60.08
E>60.17
59.96
8,190
8,027
8,329
6.9
6.8
7.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
58.84
CQ QQ
19.1
9
1985
1986
July
August
September
l>107,107
106,770
E>14.3
14.4
15.2
15.0
15.8
15.6
October
November
December
See note on page 60,
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.
x
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
62
OCTOBER 1986
G>1.8
2.0
1.9
1.9
2.0
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
PRODUCTION AND INCOME
Minor Economic
Process
Industrial Production
Comprehensive Output and Income
Timing Class
C, C, C
50. Gross national product
in 1982 dollars
Year
and
month
C.C.C
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
52. Constant
(1982) dollars
51. Personal
•income less
transfer payments in 1982
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
{Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Personal income
223. Current
dollars
c, c,c
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
C.CC
53. Wages and
salaries in 1982
dollars, mining,
mfg., and con• struction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
C, C, C
47. Index of
industrial
production
(1977 = 100)
C, C, C
73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures
(1977 = 100)
C,L, L
74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures
(1977-100)
C, C, C
49. Value of
goods output
in 1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1984
January
February
March . . . .
3,444.7
3,003.3
3,036.9
3,062.4
2,820.0
2,843.5
2,859.4
2,397.7
2,422.3
2,437.3
519.7
524.5
524.8
118.5
119.3
119.9
119.9
120.9
121.8
119.9
121.2
121.8
I,486l3
April
May
June
3,487!1
3,066.7
3,071.8
3,093.8
2,855.4
2,857.5
2,869.9
2,432.1
2,434.6
2,448.2
526.1
526.8
528.7
120.5
121.0
121.9
122.8
123.3
124.5
121.9
122.0
122.8
l,506!l
July
August
September
3,507.4
3,120.9
3,135.9
3,162.3
2,887.0
2,887.6
2,903.9
2,466.2
2,466.7
2,484.0
530.4
531.6
532.6
122.8
123.0
122.4
125.5
126.6
125.8
123.7
122.6
122.3
1,51CL3
October
November
December
3,520.4
3,165.2
3,186.5
3,217.0
2,898.5
2,910.0
2,932.5
2,475.8
2,486.4
2,515.6
532.5
535.1
537.4
122.1
122.7
122.7
126.1
126.5
126.5
122.7
123.2
122.8
1,509.5
January
February
March
3,547!o
3,227.3
3,258.3
3,273.8
2,933.9
2,951.4
2,952.0
2,500.3
2,516.8
2,517.9
538.2
537.3
539.2
122.7
123.2
123.4
126.6
126.4
127.3
122.6
123.5
123.7
April
May
June
3,567^6
3,302.7
3,288.5
3,304.9
2,972.7
2,949.3
2,958.7
2,537.6
2,514.8
2,525.1
537.1
537.7
537.1
123.3
123.6
123.6
127.5
127.4
127.0
124.1
124.7
124.8
l,526*.O
July
August
September
3,603.8
3,315.4
3,320.5
3,333.9
2,962.8
2,962.1
2,963.5
2,522.2
2,525.9
2,526.8
535.7
537.8
537.0
123.4
124.4
124.3
126.9
128.1
127.4
125.4
126.0
126.4
1,544.2
October
November
December
3,622^3
3,358.3
3,372.3
3 418 0
2,971.9
2,971.2
3 003 5
2,535.9
2,536.4
2 569 0
538.7
538.3
541 5
123.6
124.8
126.7
128.2
125.8
127.2
127.5
l,54i!7
1985
.
...
IOC C
1986
January
February
March
3,655.9
3,417.4
3,435.3
3,445.1
2,992.5
3,021.4
3,040.7
2,551.7
2,577.9
2,593.6
541.1
541.0
542.0
E)126.2
125.3
123.6
E>129.5
128.7
126.8
129.3
128.7
127.7
1,563.6
April
May
June
3,66l'.4
3,486.8
3,481.3
3,481.9
[H)3,082.9
3,072.6
3,059.7
0)2,633.9
2,621.9
2,609.9
E)544.7
543.7
539.0
124.7
124.2
124.2
128.1
127.0
126.2
129.6
129.9
rl31.2
1,562.8
E)p3,683\3
r3,492.9
r3,500.3
E>p3,511.5
r3,066,6
r3,065.1
p3,058.8
r2,609.8
r2,612.8
p2,607.3
r538.9
r541.5
P539.7
rl24.9
rl25.1
P125.3
rl27.4
rl27.6
P128.0
rl32.1
rl32.0
E>pl32.2
[ H ) p l , 573^0
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.
ISO
OCTOBER 1986
63
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
• d
WMM
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
Q
Capacity Utilization
Timing Class
Year
and
month
PRODUCTION AND
INCOME—Continued
Orders and Deliveries
L,C, U
L.C.U
82. Capacity
utilization rate,
manufacturing
84. Capacity
utilization rate,
materials
L.L.L
(Percent)
L,U
Manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
6. Current
dollars
(Percent)
CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES
(Bil. dol.)
7. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Bil. dol.)
L, L,L
L.L.L
8. Manufacturers' new .
orders in 1982
dollars, consumer goods
and materials
25. Change in
manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
L. Lg, U
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(Bil. dol.)
U, I
32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries ( u )
(Percent
reporting)
1984
January .
February
March . .
79.4
80.0
80.3
81.2
81.9
82.3
99.55
101.79
104.45
95.72
97.60
99.76
84.27
84.37
81.78
April , . .
May . . .
June . . .
80.
80.
80.
82,
82,
82. 5
97.31
100.95
98.34
92.67
96.24
93.57
82,
82,
101.98
101.86
98.21
80.7
80.7
80.4
81.
81.
81.3
January
February
March
80.2
80.2
80.4
April
May
June
July
4.38
5.44
D8.14
324.50
329.94
338.09
E>72
81.84
82.11
80.41
1.85
4.06
0.61
339.93
343.99
344.60
71
70
66
97.03
96.64
93.18
82.58
82.52
79.75
4.14
1.61
0.00
348.73
350.34
350.34
60
54
58
96.51
104.43
101.31
91.56
98.90
95.84
81.84
83.35
82.57
-4.30
2.04
-2.63
346.04
348.08
345.44
52
50
45
81.4
81.3
81.2
105.45
102.47
99.54
99.67
96.76
93.91
86.65
83.67
81.88
3.48
0.75
-2.58
348.92
349.67
347.10
47
48
46
80.4
80.3
80.0
80.5
80.1
80.2
99.84
102.97
106.78
94.10
96.69
100.17
83.31
84.09
83.17
-2.22
0.25
4.12
344.87
345.13
349.25
44
44
44
August
September . . .
79.9
80.3
80.0
79.7
79.8
79.5
104.37
107.66
106.64
97.72
100:81
100.23
83.51
84.78
85.29
1.89
351.14
353.49
356.48
44
42
42
October
November . . .
December . . .
79.4
80.1
80.2
79.1
79.4
80.3
104.50
103.80
107.53
97.66
97.01
100.40
86.25
86.90
85.70
1.75
354.49
351.28
353.04
46
42
46
80.8
80.2
79.1
80.1
79.6
78.5
108.19
107.54
104.68
H>101.31
100.70
97.93
E>89.40
87.70
83.95
2.56
2.00
1.99
355.60
357.60
E>359.59
46
48
50
April
May
June
79.9
79.4
r79.3
78.7
78.1
r78.0
103.75
102.62
102.73
96.78
95.64
95.74
86.96
r83.68
85.65
-2.84
-1.05
-1.82
356.74
355.70
353.87
50
55
50
July
August
September . . ,
r79.8
r79.7
p79.8
r78.3
r78.1
P78.0
106.22
rlO3.84
E)plO8.98
98.81
r96.51
plOl.Ol
84.78
r85.25
P88.07
1.24
r-0.31
p2.99
355.11
r354.80
P357.80
54
51
52
July . . . .
August . .
September
October
November . . .
December . . .
H>81.
81.
80.
B)82.
63
68
1985
1986
January
February
March
October
November . . .
December . . ,
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.
64
OCTOBER 1 9 8 6
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q g
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
C.CC
C.C.C
56. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)
57. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Mil. dol.)
C,L,C
75. Index of
industrial
production,
consumer
goods
(1977-100)
C.L.U
U, L,U
Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
Formation of Business Enterprises
Consumption and Trade
Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month
• •
l i l
CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continued
59. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Mil. dol.)
L.C.C
55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L, L, L
58. Index of
consumer
sentiment ©
L,LtL
12. Index of
net business
formation
L,'LF L
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
(1st Q
(Number)
1966-100)
(1967 = 100)
100.1
97.4
0)101.0
©123.2
122.6
121.6
52,674
53,535
53,075
96.1
98.1
95.5
121.4
120.4
120.7
53,884
1984
January
February
March
402,489
402,395
404,612
387,815
388,104
388,841
116.8
117.3
117.2
April
June
408,342
412,524
413,976
391,532
394,973
397,251
July
August
September
412,233
413,300
412,276
October
November
December
105,669
105,850
104,322
101,507
101,583
100,021
1O2.*8
118.2
117.4
118.2
106,794
107,354
108,911
' 102,195
102,731
104,121
106 '.7
395,433
395,951
395,348
118.9
117.9
117.6
107,333
106,818
108,143
102,613
101,731
102,798
105*6
96.6
99.1
100.9
120.5
121.6
122.5
53,211
52,025
52,646
414,243
417,635
421,613
397,427
399,595
403,092
118.1
119.1
119.1
108,816
109,899
110,078
103,143
103,973
104,043
1O8.*4
96.3
95.7
92.9
121.4
120.0
119.5
52,587
53,838
53,558
January
February
March
417,350
418,218
420,346
398,853
400,734
402,554
118.0
119.1
119 3
110,511
111,935
111,999
104,256
105,301
104,966
Il6]2
96.0
93.7
93.7
121.4
122.7
122.0
52,768
54,765
55,785
April
423,215
424,379
418,219
406,623
408,803
400 212
118.9
119.7
119 9
114,256
113,992
113,468
106,881
106,734
106,243
112-*8
94.6
91.8
96.5
121.6
119.6
120 2
55,659
55,694
55 270
421,565
r428,205^
r426,868
404,428
r411,491
r410,406
119.4
120.9
121.1
114,620
rll6,349
rll8,295
107,322
rlO8,737
126*4
94.0
92.4
92.1
122.4
121.5
121.3
54,560
55,644
56,419
426,033
431,965
120.5
122.7
123-3
114,785
115,433
116,861
106,976
107,081
108,005
i i i. 6
0)432,797
408,035
411,388
411,592
88.4
90.9
93.9
121.5
120.5
119.5
58,251
57,320
57,785
January
February
March
431,957
426,854
420,230
411,824
412,199
410,592
123.8
123.3
121.8
117,349
117,200
116,684
108,056
109,023
109,665
ni.'i
95.6
95.9
95.1
118.4
121.2
121.8
57,452
B>61,062
58,981
April
May
June
428,455
421,613
425,475
420,460
413,038
415,467
124.5
124.3
rl24.4
117,715
118,675
118,960
111,157
111,642
111,700
115*2
96.2
94.8
99.3
123.1
119.9
119.5
59,880
57,789
56,771
r427,473
P429.090
(NA)
r420,455
rl25.1
rl24.9
rll9,804
rl21,574
rll2,492
rll3,514
(H>pl37l3
0>pl25.2
E>pl27,180
E>pll8,087
97.7
94.9
91.9
rl22.1
rl20.2
P121.3
(NA)
0)p421,147
(NA)
May
53,298
50,736
1985
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
rllO,453
1986
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23.
ItCII
OCTOBER 1986
65
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^ J
Minor Economic
Process
Business Investment Commitments
Timing Class
1,1,1
L,L,L
Contracts and orders for
plant and equipment
Year
and
month
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued
10. Current
dollars
(Bit dol.)
20. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Bil. dol.)
L, L, L
L,L,L
Manufacturers' new orders,
nondefense capital goods industries
24. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)
U, Lg, U
L.C.U
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings'
27. Constant
(1982) dollars
Square feet of
floor space
(Bil. dol.)
(Millions)
Square meters of
floor space'
(Millions)
11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
(Bil. dol.)
C Lg, Lg
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations
(Bil. dol.)
1984
January
February
March
29.47
30.99
30.93
30.02
31.51
31.46
25.72
27.02
26.76
26.40
27.69
27.48
72.72
64.41
74.95
6.76
5.98
6.96
26^92
April
May
June
30.27
33.53
32.06
30.67
33.97
32.64
26.33
28.56
27.72
26.94
29.29
28.57
79.78
82.49
74.90
7.41
7.66
6.96
(H>34!l2
July
August
September
32.94
31.11
31.66
33.27
31.70
32.25
28.14
26.74
27.39
28.78
27.61
28.24
79.55
82.65
75.84
7.39
7.68
7.05
October
November
December
29.97
31.43
31.49
30.35
32.07
31.47
25.26
26.84
26.89
25.97
27.79
27.21
79.04
83.75
86,73
7.34
7.78
8.06
29!l6
January
February
March
27.81
33.80
32.09
27.74
E>35.81
32.91
23.63
29.49
27.21
23.90
H>31.86
28.43
81.14
82.48
87.41
7.54
7.66
8.12
29^94
April
May
June
30.32
30.66
32.63
30.49
31.33
33.34
25.46
25.59
27.98
26.04
26.72
29.14
91.95
83.99
69.68
8.54
7.80
6.47
27^56
July
August
September
32.08
32.11
r34.57
32.63
33.01
r35.24
26.68
27.55
29.24
27.74
28.89
30.43
91.89
91.41
8.54
8.49
E>93.19
E>8.66
October
November
December
32,63
30.59
E)35.04
33.32
31.34
34.61
27.09
25.79
92.00
92.61
79.23
8.55
8.60
7.36
27^19
[0)30.57
28.32
27.02
30.58
January
February
March
27.63
32.69
30.18
27.41
34.28
31.04
24.29
28.64
26.54
24.41
30.64
27.78
70.66
78.41
69.96
6.56
7.28
6.50
23.'39
April
May
June
30.57
29.92
30.64
r31.09
r31.08
r32.36
26.18
26.14
26.42
27.18
27.73
28.62
84.26
76.71
75.88
7.83
7.13
7.05
pl8*.77
31.68
r30.18
P32.87
r33.56
r32.26
P33.95
27.39
r26.32
P28.63
29.76
r28.85
P30.20
73.10
79.09
80.82
6.79
7.35
7.51
(NA)
78*.46
89li8
92*. 06
94^37
1985
99*35
[H>99 88
ZA'AI
97*18
94*58
1986
July . .
August
September
92.22
p86!37
(NA)
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
l
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
66
OCTOBER 1986
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q j
Minor Economic
Process
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued
Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment
Business Investment Expenditures
Timing Class
C, Lg, Lg
C Lg, Lg
Expenditures for new plant
and equipment
Year
and
month
61. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
100. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
C,Lg,Lg
C, Lg, U
69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and
business
construction
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
76. Index of
industrial production, business equipment
(1977 = 100)
C Lg, C
Lg, Lg, Lg
C Lg, C
28. New private housing
units started
Gross private nonresidentiaJ
fixed investment in 1982 dollars
86. Total
87. Structures
L.L.L
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
L, L L
L,L,L
29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits
89. Gross private residential
fixed investment
in 1982 dollars
(1967 = 100)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1984
January .
February .
March
339.32
341'50
343.88
348.14
360.50
128.1
128.7
130.2
394.4
133*5
260.9
April
May
June
349'43
350*63
360.22
371.74
380.48
130.6
132.6
134.6
419*. 5
14l'.3
278*2
...
...
•.
0)2,213
1,671
144.8
H>158.5
137.6
169.7
1,880
1,786
1,853
141.6
138.8
144.7
173*2
1,892
•
July
August
September
361*27
36l!60
372.60
380.07
393.49
135.9
138.5
137.0
427.1
142.9
284.2
1,733
1,589
1 702
128.0
122.0
121 5
171.2
October
November
December
367!78
367*96
387.96
392.68
408.43
137.8
138.5
137.0
447.6
147.5
300.1
1,582
1,649
1,607
118.8
131.0
129.7
a168*3
January
February
March
373*56
371*84
374.91
389.27
407.68
138.3
139.2
138.9
442*. 7
149.9
292.8
1,804
1,632
1,849
130.8
135.2
139.9
172.4
April
May
June
387.* 86
387*31
400.96
397.75
403.49
140.7
140.8
138.5
463*6
•MM
308*9
1,851
1,684
1,693
135.1
137.7
136.9
175.'i
July
August
September
389.23
388.58
397.96
408.25
397.48
139.5
141.0
140.4
463! 1
152'3
310*9
1,673
1,737
1,653
136.3
142.1
147.2
180.0
October
November
December
0)397.88
0)397.57
409.30
410.53
0)423.97
138.3
140.8
140.0
0)476.9
152*4
324.5
1,784
1,654
1,882
135.8
133.0
146.7
181.5
January
February
March
377.94
374.18
385.23
398.64
401 72
[H)141.5
140.5
137 7
457*8
148.1
309.7
2,034
2,001
1 960
148.4
144.2
146 3
186.3
April
May
June
375*92
372.30
r402.58
r390.01
r397.39
138.6
137.9
456.*8
132*9
323*9
150.3
142.6
142.9
192.7
rl36.6
2,019
1,853
1,852
r399.80
P399.36
(NA)
rl38.3
rl39.2
P139.7
p457*l
pl29*.7
E>p327*4
rl,782
rl,818
pi,680
140.3
133.4
127.8
E>pl96"i
1985
1986
July
August
September
a38o'52
a377*H
October
November
December
a383*99
a381*69
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
OCTOBER 1986
67
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
E9
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
NVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Inventories on Hand and on Order
Inventory Investment
L,L, L
L.L.L
L, L,L
30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
36. Change in mfg. and trade
inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars
Smoothed1
Actual
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
31. Change
in mfg. and
trade inventories, book
value
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L.L.L
38. Change in
mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order 2
(Bil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Book
value
(Bil. dol.)
70. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Bil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
65. Manufacturers' inventories,
finished
goods, book
value
(Bil. dot.)
L, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
77. Ratio,
mfg. and
trade inventories to
sales in
1982 dollars
78. Mfrs/
inventories,
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order
(Ratio)
(Bil. dol.)
1984
January
February
March
.1
62.68
E>89.59
66.35
49.81
58.78
68.10
53.4
.9
80.1
2.81
2.82
2.35
524.73
532.14
538.82
587.47
593.08
598.50
81.16
81.90
83.14
1.51
1.53
1.54
211.54
214.36
216.71
April
May
June
57.0
84.44
63.10
-4.13
E>76.50
75.71
59.55
85.3
54.9
23.0
1.81
1.66
-0.22
545.93
550.50
552.42
604.62
609.46
610.60
84.14
85.11
86.38
1.54
1.54
1.54
218.52
220.18
219.97
July
August
September . . .
60.6
63.48
49.10
27.62
44.31
38.48
41.44
57.0
54.6
45.1
2.61
-0.18
-0.05
557.17
561.72
565.48
615.49
620.82
623.89
86.95
87.80
88.55
1.56
1.57
1.58
©222.58
222.40
222.35
October
November . . .
December . , .
33.9
11.41
22.08
-5.39
38.05
24.87
14.87
39.3
29.9
26.3
-2.43
-1.56
-1.06
568.75
571.24
573.43
626.53
629.46
630.89
89.27
89.69
1.58
1.58
1.57
219.92
218.36
217.30
January
February
March
23.2
29.90
14.93
-19.46
12.45
14.34
10.80
28.4
32.9
-2.1
0.65
-0.48
-3.07
575.80
578.54
578.37
632.39
634.14
634.21
89.69
89.86
90.12
1.59
1.58
1.58
217.95
217.47
214.40
April
May
June
17.4
7.42
-25.43
7.82
4.71
-5.76
-7.94
2.0
-8.6
27.5
-0.94
-1.54
1.68
578.53
577.81
580.11
635.58
634.35
635.39
90.12
H>90.13
89.87
1.56
1.55
1B>1.59
213.46
211.93
213.61
July
August
September . . .
0.7
7.88
-17.23
-5.38
-3.32
-1.88
-2.71
3.2
r-10.6
r-8.9
-0.46
0.31
-0.11
580.37
r579.49
r578.74
636.56
635.86
635.69
89.26
88.86
88.26
October
November . . .
December . . .
-5.2
23.60
12.84
5.47
-2.29
5.34
12.16
r41.2
7.1
4.6
-0.34
-1.28
1.83
582.17
582.76
583.15
637.74
638.64
638.43
87.58
88.24
88.37
1.56
1.55
1.55
213.69
212.41
214.24
January
February . . . .
March
39.9
33.83
18.79
44.95
15.68
18.37
25.94
21.8
2.5
36.0
-0.26
1.43
-1.10
584.97
585.18
588.18
640.58
641.50
645.87
87.92
87.53
87.62
1.56
1.56
1.57
213.99
215.41
214.31
April
May
June
15.1
13.54
r-52.33
r6.72
29.14
rl3.91
r-4.32
5.1
-22.5
26.2
-1.76
-1.39
-0.85
588.60
586.73
588.91
647.86
645.28
646.28
87.80
87.66
86.71
1.54
1.56
1.56
212.56
211.17
210.31
p-4.5
HI.05
p-6.73
(NA)
r-11.10
p-3.92
(NA)
r35.8
p-0.1
(NA)
-0.24
p-0.58
(NA)
[R>r591.90
P591.89
(NA)
(H>r648.19
P647.81
87.28
P86.73
(NA)
rl.54
pi. 54
(NA)
210.08
P209.50
(NA)
1985
213.15
213.46
213.35
1986
July
August
September . . .
(NA)
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27.
1
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
2
Series 38 reached its high value (3.02) in October 1983.
OCTOBER 1986
tun
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q
Minor Economic
Process
Stock
Prices
Sensitive Commodity Prices
Timing Class
L, L, L.
98. Change in
producer prices
for 28 sensitive
crude and
intermediate
materials1
Year
and
month
(Percent)
L, L, L
U, L,L
23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrial,
materials2©
(1967 = 100)
L, L r L
99. Change in sensitive materials
prices1
Smoothed3
Actual
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
(Percent)
(Percent)
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks ©
(1941-43 = 10)
Profits and Profit Margins
L, L, L
L. L. L
Corporate profits after tax
16 Current
dollars
18. Constant
(1982) dollars
L.C.L
L,C,L
Corporate profits after tax
with IVA and CCAdp
79. Current
dollars
80. Constant
(1982) dollars
L.L.L
22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax to corporate domestic
income1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Percent)
1984
January
February
March
-0.84
1.27
0.19
283.6
283.6
289.2
-0.33
0.69
0.65
0.77
0.45
0.35
166.39
157.25
157.44
(fi>146*4
E>142.'7
159*6
156 .'l
6.*6
April
May
June
-0.26
-0.84
-0.78
288.6
H>289.5
286.2
-0.16
-0.36
-0.73
0.36
0.22
-0.19
157.60
156.55
153.12
144.' 8
140.3
170.'1
166.0
6\4
July
August
September
-1.76
-1.10
0.71
280.1
275.6
274.0
-1.55
-1.08
0.21
-0.65
-1.00
-0.96
151.08
164.42
166.11
135*8
130*3
170*5
165.*4
5.*7
October
November
December
-0.73
0.10
-0.37
266.4
268.3
261.9
-1.21
0.25
-0.89
-0.75
-0.47
-0.43
164.82
166.27
164.48
134 .'i
127*7
177.*1
171 -2
5*.*6
January
February
March
-0.37
-1.59
-0.72
255.8
253.1
252.4
-0.85
-1.16
-0.48
-0.56
-0.73
-0.90
171.61
180.88
179.42
126*. 6
118*. 7
178*7
171*7
5.1
April
May
June
-0.03
0.66
0.14
257.1
252.0
242.9
0.52
-0.22
-1.00
-0.60
-0.22
-0.15
180.62
184.90
188.89
126*7
118.8
187*2
179*8
5.0
July
August
September
-0.03
-0.34
-0.34
240.7
239.8
238.0
-0.31
-0.26
-0.40
-0.37
-0.52
-0.42
192.54
188.31
184.06
133.4
124*9
200*5
192*3
5.3
0.59
-0.31
-0.31
236.9
234.5
235.0
0.18
-0.49
-0.09
-0.24
-0.20
-0.18
186.18
197.45
207.26
139*4
130.1
189*2
180.2
5*3
0,10
-1.14
0.45
236.9
233.3
223.1
0.27
-1.02
-1.08
-0.12
-0.19
-0.44
208.19
219.37
232.33
135.2
124.8
E>207*3
E>196.6
4*9
2.02
r0.44
r-0.37
219.9
221.3
225.0
0.64
r0.41
r0.31
-0.55
r-0.25
r0.22
237.98
238.46
E>245.30
138". 0
127*5
199.9
189*3
5*. 3
0.61
-2.61
1.50
227.6
212.0
221.2
0.67
-3.43
2.03
0.46
-0.18
-0.53
240.18
245.00
238.27
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1985
.......
October
November
December
1986
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
5
October
November
December
234.8
6
237.26
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
l
The following series reached their high values before 1984: series 98 (2.83) in Feb. 1983, series 99 actual (2.63) in Feb. 1983, series
99 smoothed (1.81) in Apr. 1983, and series 22 (6.7) in 3d Q 1983. 2This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 3See footnote 1 on page 68.
"IVA, inventory valuation adjustment;
5
6
CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
Average for October 1 through 28.
Average for October 1, 8, 15, 22, and 29.
OCTOBER 1986
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
0
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp. domestic
income x
(Percent)
L.L.L
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share
Cash Flows
Profits and Profit Margins—Continued
U,L,L
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Continued
L, L, L
L.L.L
15. Profits after
26. Ratio, im-
taxes per dollar
plicit price de-
of sales, manu-
flator to unit
facturing cor-
labor cost,
34. Current
porations
nonfarm busi-
dollars
L, L, L
Corporate net cash flow
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
63. Index of
unit labor cost,
business sector
68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial corporations
35. Constant
(1982) dollars
ness sector
(Ann. rate,
(Cents)
(1977-100)
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1977 = 100)
(Dollars)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
62. Index of labor cost per unit
of output, manufacturing
Actual data
(1977 = 100)
Actual data
as a percent
of trend
64. Compensation of employees as a
percent of national income
(Percent)
(Percent)
1984
January
February
March
7.3
4*9
98lo
34518
347*2
158'2
0.683
134.4
134.9
134.6
90.3
90.2
89.6
72I7
April
May
June
7.8
0)419
99^3
34913
349^7
158*3
0.684
135.0
134.9
134.4
89.4
89.0
88.2
72l9
July
August
September
7*6
4*4
99! i
348.9
348*. 7
160*2
0.694
134.3
134.9
136.0
87.8
87.7
88.0
73*2
October
November
December
7*9
4*3
98*8
357^8
357.1
16l!7
0.699
136.2
136.5
87.8
87.5
1 j/
1 ?7 • Rj
Q7 Q
0/ . O
73l3
1985
January
February
March
7.9
4*2
98.7
361*6
360 ! l
163ll
0.704
138.1
137.5
137.5
87.7
86.9
86.5
73.4
April
May
June
8*2
3.7
98^9
370.8
36915
16416
0.708
136.8
136.9
137.7
85.7
85.4
85.4
73*5
July
August
September
E>8*8
3.7
[H>99!3
382! 8
38i!6
16414
0.705
137.8
137.8
138.0
85.1
84.7
84.4
73l4
October
November
December
7*9
3.6
98*2
|H>389!4
E>'388*.i
167*3
0.716
139.7
138.6
139.4
85.1
84.0
84.1
73*7
January
February
March
8*5
3.6
9916
380 [9
380*. 8
167* 6
0.72i
138.1
138.6
(H>140.4
82.9
82.8
83.5
E>73l7
April
May
June
8*. 4
4*. 3
r98.8
380.6
379*8
rl68.0
E>0.724
138.4
139.1
rl38.6
82.0
82.0
r81.3
73.5
P99.6
(NA)
(NA)
0>pl69li
(NA)
rl37.7
rl38.3
P137.8
80.4
80.4
P79.7
(NA)
1986
July
August
September
(NA)
(NA)
October
November
December .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.
1
IVA J
inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
70
OCTOBER 1986
ItO
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^ B
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
MONEY AND CREDIT
Money
Lr L, L
85. Change
in money
supply M l
L.C.U
102. Change
in money
supply M2 *
Year
and
month
(Percent)
(Percent)
L.L.L
104. Change
in total liquid
assets 1
(Percent)
Velocity of Money
L.L.L
105. Money
supply Ml in
1982 dollars
(Bil. dol.)
L,L t L
106. Money
supply M2 in
1982 dollars
(Bil. dol.)
C, C, C
107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
Ml
(Ratio)
Credit Flows
C, Lg, C
108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
M2
(Ratio)
L.L.L
L.L.L
33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
112. Net change
in business loans
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised2
1984
January
February
March
0.68
0.49
0.60
0.62
0.74
0.52
0.81
0.85
1.16
501.7
502.2
503.9
2,079.3
2,086.6
2,092.0
6.881
1.365
1.371
>1.375
71.74
100.58
104.24
8.62
59.39
[H>108.61
April
May
June
0.47
0.58
0.74
0.63
0.62
0.53
1.04
1.04
1.04
504.3
506.4
508.8
2,098.2
2,107.7
2,113.6
6.902
1.367
1.361
1.364
123.28
132.04
108.66
86.60
77.46
100.70
July
August
September . . .
-0.020.24
0.62
0.40
0.63
0.79
1.03
0.76
1.00
507.
506,
507,
115.1
119.5
128.7
6.934
1.370
1.368
1.369
114.83
101.36
B>143.70
33.50
17.39
40.54
October
November . . .
December . . .
-0.20
0.84
0.78
0.60
1.06
1.09
0.68
0.74
0.94
504.9
508.2
510.8
2,134.5
2,153.2
2,171.0
©6.940
1.362
1.357
1.355
81.11
74.22
45.52
47.75
52.68
4.13
January
February
March
0.79
1.14
0.51
1.10
0.91
0.31
0.72
0.87
0.67
513.8
518.1
518.3
2,190.7
2,203.8
2,200.3
6.881
1.345
1.345
1.348
r71.21
r59.26
rlOl.14
53.58
21.95
26.83
April
May
June
0.61
18
,44
0.21
0.72
1.10
0.17
0.52
0.79
519.6
524.6
530.9
2,197.3
2,208.4
2,227.1
6.801
1.357
1.341
1.333
r86.62
r66.98
r73.73
14.87
27.46
-45.89
July
August
September . . .
0.90
1.44
1.11
0.69
0.78
0.57
0.48
0.77
0.76
534.6
541.2
546.1
2,238.3
2,250.9
2,259.4
6.671
328
320
318
r58.92
r68.39
r42.35
16.58
3.66
-14.63
October
November . . .
December . . ,
0.44
0.96
1.05
0.36
0.49
0.59
0.59
1.00
1.03
546.5
548.7
552.5
2,259.2
2,257.7
2,262.8
6.590
1.323
1.322
1.332
rl25.47
r71.12
rlO6.55
65.16
64.68
38.89
0.10
0.61
1.17
0.13
0.30
0.57
0.59
0.49
0.36
551.1
556.7
565.6
2,258.3
2,274.1
r2,296.8
6.563
1.330
1.333
1.329
-23.17
57.40
r43.56
56.50
-51.02
-29.54
1.21
0.60
0.82
0.59
574.0
r584.1
588.6
r2,329.5
r2,349.8
r2,357.5
6.354
1.330
1.314
1.304
r52.70
r30.91
-40.38
21.79
r-30.85
0.84
pO.74
(NA)
596.6
605.9
[H>p608.8
2,381.8
r2,399.7
P6.174
1.294
rl.285
pi.281
1985
1986
January . .
February .
March . . .
rl.25
rl.15
rl.O5
r0.79
July . . . .
August . .
September
1.39
1.73
p0.83
1.07
r0.93
p0.63
October . .
November
December
3
April . . . .
May . . . .
June . . . .
E>rl.93
E>p2,406.5
(NA)
r5.94
r47.80
p20.39
0.69
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.
x
Series 102 reached its high value (2.79) in January 1983; series 104 reached its high value (1.31) in January 1983.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/1 page iii.
3
Average for weeks ended October 6 and 13.
OCTOBER 1986
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^ H
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
L,L,L
113. Net change
in consumer
installment
credit
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
L.L.L
111. Change in
business and
consumer credit
outstanding
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Bank Reserves
Credit Difficulties
Credit Flows—Continued
Timing Class
MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued
L.L.L
110. Funds
raised by private
nonfinancial
borrowers in
credit markets
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
L,L t L
14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures1©
(Mil. dol.)
L.L.L
39. Percent
of consumer
installment
loans delinquent 30 days
and over
(Percent)
Interest Rates
L, Ur U
L, Lg, U
93. Free
reserves ©
94. Member
bank borrowings from the
Federal
Reserve ©
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil dol.)
1, Lg, Lg
119. Federal
funds rate ©
(Percent)
C Lg, Lg
114. Discount
rate on new
issues of 91-day
Treasury bills @
(Percent)
1984
January .
February
March . .
78.66
69.41
60.96
14.6
17.3
19.4
525,408
1,783.3
1,713.1
3,479.7
1.84
E>1.78
1.85
-102
376
-241
715
567
952
9.56
9.59
9.91
8.93
9.03
9.44
April . . ,
May . . .
June . . .
74.64
114.13
95.18
19.4
21.5
B>21.6
641,064
2,429.4
3,074.3
3,427.4
2.06
1.96
2.02
-742
-2,408
-2,526
1,234
2,988
3,300
10.29
10.32
11.06
9.69
9.90
9.94
July
August
September . . ,
73.58
80.62
63.04
14.4
12.
12.
455,468
2,783,
1,968.
2,045.6
-5,311
-7,328
-6,614
5,924
>8,017
7,242
11.23
E>11.64
11.30
10.13
H>1Q.49
10.41
October
November . , .
December , . .
70.61
71.95
75.31
14.2
13.4
9.2
632,420
1,471.3
2,763.7
2,328.4
1.91
1.97
2.09
-5,397
-3,924
-2,333
6,017
4,617
3,186
9.99
9.43
8.38
9.97
8.79
8.16
January
February
March
75.16
82.16
99.59
13
10
13.0
489,660
1,821.0
2,409.8
3,485.8
2.20
2.19
2.40
-650
-386
-827
1,395
1,289
1,593
8.35
8.50
8.58
7.76
8.22
8.57
April
May
June
90.52
75.96
52.69
10.0
9.4
3.7
552,040
p3,279.8
p3,261.9
p2,995.6
-585
-530
-300
1,323
1,334
1,205
8.27
7.97
7.53
8.00
7.56
7.01
July
August
September . . .
81.43
72.61
E>123.96
9.3
8.5
9.8
580,380
p2,150.5
p3,162.4
pi,925.3
-252
-246
-623
1,107
1,073
1,289
7.88
7.90
7.92
7.05
7.18
7.08
October
November . . ,
December . . .
78.70
67.72
77.72
15.6
10.9
rll.7
0)928,380
pi,824.6
p5,026.9
pi,707.8
-434
-813
-260
1,187
1,741
1,318
7.99
8.05
8.27
7.17
7.20
7.07
January
February
March
91.86
61.19
37.04
12.6
3.4
3.8
445,084
April
May
June
58.45
77.48
64.63
3.1
8.6
r3.2
p525,584
r66.77
P44.92
(NA)
r7.3
r6.4
p7.9
(NA)
1985
2.32
1986
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . . .
p3,590.4
p3,518.2
p2s746.6
2.27
341
213
135
770
884
761
8.14
7.86
7.48
7.04
7.03
6.59
(NA)
2.44
2.52
2.53
-92
-38
128
893
876
803
6.99
6.85
6.92
6.06
6.12
6.21
(NA)
169
r-132
p-280
741
872
pi, 008
6.56
6.17
5.89
5.84
5.57
5.19
2
5.89
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 32, 33, and 34.
Series 14 reached its high value (829.2) in July 1983.
2
Average for weeks ended October 1, 8, 15, and 22.
3
Average for weeks ended October 2, 9, 16, and 23.
72
OCTOBER 1986
9
5.18
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
1
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
H
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Interest Rates—Continued
Lg, Lgt Lg
116. Yield on
new issues of
high-grade
Year
and
month
MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued
corporate
bonds (u)
(Percent)
C, Lg, Lg
115. Yield on
long-term
Treasury
bonds (u)
(Percent)
U,Lg, Lg
117. Yield on
municipal .
bonds, 20-
bond average ©
Lg, Lgr Lg
118. Secondary
market yields
on FHA
mortgages.®
(Percent)
(Percent)
Outstanding Debt
Lg, Lg, Lg
67. Bank.rates
on short-term
business
loans (u)
(Percent)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks @
66. Consumer
installment
credit outstanding
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
Lg, LgF Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
72. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)
101. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Mil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
outstanding
to personal
income
(Percent)
1984
12.65
12.80
13.36
11.29
11.44
11.90
9.63
9.64
9.93
13.08
13.20
13.68
Il!o6
11.00
11.00
11.21
382,794
388,578
393,658
268,086
273,035
282,086
260,531
264,569
271,498
12.75
12.80
12.85
13.64
14.41
(H>14.49
12.17
12.89
D13.00
9.96
10.49
H>10.67
13.80
[0)15.01
14.91
12^45
11.93
12.39
12.60
399,878
409,389
417,321
289,303
295,758
304,150
278,176
284,110
292,452
13.04
13.33
13.49
July
August
September
14.25
13.54
13.37
12.82
12.23
11.97
10.42
9.99
10.10
14.58
14.21
13.99
0>13".29
13.00
D13.00
12.97
423,453
430,171
435,424
306,942
308,391
311,769
294,570
297,101
301,809
13.57
13.72
13.77
October
November
December
13.02
12.40
12.47
11.66
11.25
11.21
10.25
10.17
9.95
13.43
12.90
12.99
1L29
12.58
11.77
11.06
441,308
447,304
453,580
315,748
320,138
320,482
305,366
308,716
309,644
13.94
14.04
14.10
January
February
March
12.46
12.39
12.85
11.15
11.35
11.78
9.51
9.65
9.77
13.01
13.27
13.43
io." io
10.61
10.50
10.50
459,843
466,690
474,989
324,947
326,776
329,012
314,262
316,337
319,119
14.25
14.32
14.51
April
May
June
12.45
11.85
11.33
11.42
10.96
10.36
9.42
9.01
8.69
12.97
12.28
11.89
9^90
10.50
10.31
9.78
482,532
488,862
493,253
330,251
332,539
328,715
319,701
321,294
318,214
14.61
14.87
14.92
July
August
September
11.28
11.61
11.66
10.51
10.59
10.67
8.81
9.08
9.27
12.12
11.99
12.04
9^27
9.50
9.50
9.50
500,039
506,090
516,420
330,097
330,402
329,183
319,861
321,716
322,412
15.08
15.24
15.49
October
November
December
11.51
11.17
10.42
10.56
10.08
9.60
9.08
8.54
8.43.
11.87
11.28
10.70
9.68
9.50
9.50
9.50
522,978
528,621
535,098
334,613
340,003
343,244
325,183
328,823
331,317
15.57
15.68
15.66
10.33
9.76
8.95
9.51
9.07
8.13
8.08
7.44
7.08
10.78
10.59
9.77
9*29
9.50
9.50
9.10
542,753
547,852
550,939
E>347,952
343,700
341,238
337,163
337,955
340,217
15.88
15.95
15.99
337,873
339,689
r337,118
339,230
339,689
r337,455
15.94
16.15
16.30
r337,613
r339,310
r341,596
r344,004
p343,295 jH>p345,020
16.41
[H>pl6.48
(NA)
January
February
March
April
May
June
1985
•
1986
January
February
March
April
May
June
8.71
9.09
9.39
7.59
8.02
8.23 -
7.20
7.54
7.87
9.80
10.07
9.98
8!l3
8.83
8.50
8.50
555,810
562,267
567,653
July
August
September
9.11
9.03
9.28
7.86
7.72
8.08
7.51
7.21
7.11
10.01
9.80
9.90
7^3
8.16
7.90
7.50
r573,216
(H>p576,959
(NA)
l
October
November
December
9.37
l
8.08
2
7.11
3
7.50
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
l
Average for weeks ended October 3, 10, 17, and 24.
2
Average for weeks ended October 2, 9, 16, and 23.
3
Average for October 1 through 28.
ItCII
OCTOBER 1986
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
month
950. Twelve leading
indicator components
(series 1, 5, 8,12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106,
111)
1-month
span
951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41, 47, 51, 57)
6-month
span
1-month
span
952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62,77, 91, 95,
101, 109)
6-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
961. Average weekly
hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers,
20 manufacturing
industries
962. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, 51
areas l
963. Employees on
private nonagricultural
payrolls, 186
industries
1-month
span
9-month
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
1984
January
February
March
58.3
70.8
50.0
75.0
70.8
62.5
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
8.3
75.0
75.0
66.7
66.7
75.0
67.5
85.0
7.5
80.0
36.3
72.5
70.6
76.5
90.2
56.9
67.8
72.7
67.6
78.1
76.5
77.0
April
May
June
58.
41.
25.0
25.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
10Q.0
83,
66,
66,
83.
83.
83.
97.5
15.0
35.0
35.0
50.0
22.5
41.2
31.4
92.2
66.7
72.5
36.3
67.6
62.4
65.4
75.1
69.2
65.1
July
August
September . . .
16.
37.
75.0
87.5
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
83.3
75.0
66.7
83.
66.
66.
37.
42.
67.
7.5
19.6
52.9
76.5
27,
35,
13,
62
55
50.5
63,
59,
75.0
25.0
33,3
29.2
October
November . . .
December , . .
33.3
70.8
41.7
66.7
58.3
50,0
62.5
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
58.3
50.0
66.7
66.
66.
58.3
25.0
70.0
60.0
10.0
20.0
17.5
5.9
72.5
71.6
33.3
17.6
29.4
63.0
53.5
57.0
53,
49.
January
February
March
70.8
50.0
33.3
62.5
50.0
58.3
50.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
66.7
50.0
58.3
50.0
50.0
66.7
35.0
22.5
85.0
40.0
40.0
47.5
11.8
72.5
84.3
33.3
41.2
64.7
52.4
47.8
53.8
49.2
47.8
43.0
April
May
June
33.3
70.8
54.2
50.0
58.3
66.7
100.0
62.5
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
41.7
50.0
33.3
58.3
50.0
50.0
12.5
77.5
77.5
55.0
67.
67.
19.6
45.1
88.2
64.7
58.8
66.7
49.2
51.6
47.0
45.9
44.3
44.3
July
August
September . . .
62.5
58.3
62.5
83.3
79.2
83.3
50.0
100.0
50.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
41.7
50.0
58.3
58.3
41.7
50.0
27.
87.
65.0
87.
92,
97,
7.8
82.4
59.8
64.7
13.7
60.8
56.2
56.8
50.8
48.9
50.8
54.1
October
November . . ,
December . . .
75.0
37.5
75.0
83.3
75.0
45.8
50.0
87.5
87.5
100.0
100.0
r62.5
91.7
41.7
66.7
58.3
75.0
66.7
75.0
52.5
95.0
75.0
80.0
80.0
23.5
74.5
27.5
64.7
33.3
64.7
61.9
57.6
59.5
57.0
57.0
55.9
January .
February
March . .
62.5
50.0
r62.5
62.5
45.8
45.8
75.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
75,
75,
75.0
50.0
83.3
50.0
66.7
66.7
22.
22.
72.
56.9
52.9
62.7
49.0
39.2
r51.0
59.
53.
45.1
53.8
53.8
47.6
April . . .
May . . .
June . . .
75.0
r50.0
54.2
58.3
58.3
= 72.7
100.0
25.0
37.5
75.0
75.0
100.0
16.7
58.3
33.3
33.3
33.3
"25.0
45.0
45.0
45.0
80.0
57.5
r27.5
r57.5
P45.0
25.5
74.5
r56.9
p56.9
54.1
49.2
46.2
r45.9
r46.8
p47.8
25.0
58.6
54.9
1985
1986
July . . . .
August . .
September
2
62.
41.
68.2
r87.5
100.0
3
66.7
3
A
50.0
50.0
50.0
r42,
r87.
p57.5
34.3
P77.5
(NA)
(NA)
r54.6
r55.7
P51.4
October . .
November .
December ,
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © > , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order, Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are. shown on page 36.
1
Figures are the percent of components
2
Excludes series 36, for which data are
3
declining.
not available.
Bxcludes series 57, for which data are not available.
^Hxcludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.
74
OCTOBER 1986
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Q
964. Manufacturers'
new orders, 34
durable goods industries
Year
and
month
965. Newly approved
capital appropriations
in 1982 dollars, 17
manufacturing
industries
1-month
span
9-month
span
1-quarter
span
January
February
March . . . :
67.6
50.0
52.9
91.2
79.4
85.3
71
April
May
June
35.3
58.8
26.5
75.0
52.9
41.2
59
July
August
September
55.9
51.5
41.2
44.1
61.8
52.9
42
55.9
55.9
52 9
29.4
55.9
44 1
65
January
February
March
52.9
35.3
55.9
45.6
63.2
52.9
50
April
May
June
47.1
60.3
61.8
64.7
54.4
50.0
42
July
August
September
55.9
55.9
45.6
67.6
47.1
61.8
59
57.4
50.0
35.3
52.9
47.1
52.9
53
January
February
March
55.9
44.1
42.6
41.2
44.1
47.1
r36
April
May
June
61.8
32.4
64.7
. r41.2
P61.8
p24
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
966. Industrial production, 24 industries
967. Spot market
prices, 13 raw
industrial materials ©
1-month
span
6-month
span
91.7
58
75.0
60.4
95.8
95.8
87.5
38.5
61.5
65.4
59
66.7
45.8
70.8
70.8
70.8
64.6
54
66.7
43.8
43.8
4-Q moving
average
1-mpnth
span
968. Stock prices, 500
common stocks1©
1-month
span
9-month
span
9-month
span
960. Net profits,
manufacturing, about
600 companies2©
(4-quarter span)
1984
. ,.
October
November
December
73.1
65.4
42.3
52.1
10.6
60.6
41.5
25.5
58.7
76
50.0
50.0
42.3
34.6
30.8
30.8
43.6
36.2
36.2
30.4
37.0
37.0
76
54.2
54.2
45.8
34.6
46.2
46 2
23.1
15.4
15 4
34.8
93.5
73 9
60.9
54.3
65 2
*68
22.9
43.8
54 2
30.8
57.7
19 2
15.4
19.2
34 6
34.8
78.3
26 1
82.6
76.1
91 3
*68
50
52.1
50.0
41 7
54.2
62.5
66 7
23.1
38.5
57 7
89.1
93.5
37.0
77.8
73.3
85 6
70
54
39.6
56.2
70 8
"si
56.2
58.3
50.0
66.7
72.9
58.3
76.9
38.5
23.1
23.1
38.5
46.2
55.4
66.7
75.6
77.8
82.2
73.3
72
60.4
66.7
68.8
38.5
46.2
46.2
38.5
46.2
38.5
76.7
30.0
11.1
75.6
82.2
86.0
*70
*48
54.2
68.8
50.0
75.0
70.8
60.4
42.3
23.1
57.7
53.8
53.8
53.8
55.6
88.9
86.7
88.1
92.9
90.5
70
p43
41.7
70.8
58.3
68.8
47.9
50.0
61.5
38.5
34.6
46.2
50.0
57.7
60.5
81.0
94.0
90.5
90.5
88.1
(NA)
(NA)
70.8
39.6
22.9
79.2
37.5
50.0
r41.7
r50.0
p62.5
53.8
61.5
65.4
42.3
50.0
50.0
61.9
50.0
77.4
88.1
90.5
•
1985
.......
October
November
December
23.1
23.1
23 1
.
,
•
1986
July
August
September
50.0
38.2
p70.6
(NA)
r64.6
r58.3
p72.9
50.0
50.0
65.4
3
October
November
December
3
35.7
67.9
42.9
73.1
See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
^Based on 47 industries through June 1984, on 46 industries through April 1985, on 45 industries through December 1985, on 43 industries
through January 1986, and on 42 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the
source.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun £ Bradstreet, Inc.
3
Based on average for October 7, 14, 21, and 28.
OCTOBER 1986
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Q j
Year
and
quarter
970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment,
21 industries
a. Actual
expenditures
(1-Q span)
b. Later
projections
c. Early
projections
971. New orders, manufacturing' @
972. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade' (u)
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(1-Q span)
(1-Q span)
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued
Anticipated
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade' @
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
38.1
47.6
85.7
95.2
47.
61.
90.
85.
6
9
5
7
47.6
50.0
85.7
76.2
66
74
78
84
66
77
82
85
62
66
71
74
64
73
80
81
66
74
74
80
68
78
84
86
97.6
76.2
90.5
66.7
90.
61.
76.
76.
5
9
2
2
61.9
71.4
95.2
45.2
90
86
84
79
88
91
90
88
80
79
74
74
84
86
88
84
85
84
82
80
88
90
90
88
61.9
76.2
64.3
59.5
57.
76.
71.
52.
1
2
4
4
61.9
83.3
76.2
38.1
74
74
76
75
82
84
82
80
70
69
70
70
80
81
81
78
76
74
75
74
84
84
84
81
19.0
57.1
(NA)
35. 7
66. 7
42. 9
47.6
69.0
47.6
66.7
76
76
82
83
84
78
70
71
78
81
81
78
72
73
81
84
83
80
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . .
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
(NA)
Q j
Voir
rear
and
quarter
974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade' (u)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
978, Selling prices, retail
977. Selling prices, wholesale
trade1©
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(NA)
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
976. Selling prices, manufacturing1 @
975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and tradt
Anticipated
Actual
(NA)
trade
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
l
0
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1983
48
54
58
61
50
56
59
60
54
59
62
68
52
58
62
64
61
60
65
68
65
66
70
69
i53
(52
58
70
68
64
68
72
68
72
69
72
69
67
70
71
65
63
62
62
62
64
64
62
72
70
70
70
66
70
70
66
74
70
70
68
74
76
76
72
73
59
55
55
72
76
75
72
72
68
70
70
70
74
74
68
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
60
58
58
59
60
62
59
58
66
63
60
61
64
66
62
58
65
62
61
61
70
70
64
62
54
50
59
50
68
66
66
60
66
63
66
62
65
70
67
62
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
58
59
59
60
59
58
62
61
58
58
60
57
59
60
62
65
62
59
59
59
64
64
62
62
60
62
62
62
64
64
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated by<§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc.
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.
76
OCTOBER 1986
Dun §
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change
Diffusion index components
1986
February
April
March
June
May
July
August
September*3
961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURING '
(Hours)
All manufacturing industries
40.7
40.7
40.7
40.7
40.6
40.6
40.8
40.8
Percent rising of 20 components
(22)
(72)
(45)
(45)
(45)
(42)
(88)
(58)
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
40.0
39.7
40.2
39.4
40.3
39.1
40.3
39.4
39.9
39.4
r40.1
39.4
40.2
39.9
40.3
40.1
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
41.9
42.1
41.9
41.9
42.4
41.3
42.3
41.7
42.2
41.6
42.2
41.3
42.5
41.9
42.5
Fabricated metal products ..
Machinery, except electrical .
41.5
41.6
41.4
41.6
41.2
41.8
41.1
41.8
41.1
41.7
r41.1
r41.4
41.3
41.6
41.5
41.8
Electric and electronic equipment
Transportation equipment
40.9
42.7
41.0
42.7
41.1
42.1
41.0
41.9
41.0
42.2
r41.1
42.1
41.2
42.8
41.2
42.3
Instruments and related products .
Miscellaneous manufacturing
41.2
39.3
41.3
39.9
41.3
39.7
40.9
39.4
41.0
39.6
r40.8
38.8
40.9
39.3
40.7
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers
39.8
36.6
39.9
37.5
40.2
36.6
40.2
37.7
40.0
38.3
r40.0
r35.9
40.2
36.2
39.9
38.4
Textile mill products ,
Apparel and other textile products
40.6
36.3
40.7
36.5
41.3
36.9
41.1
36.5
40.8
36.5
40.9
r36.6
41.4
36.4
41.4
36.5
Paper and allied products....
Printing and publishing
43.5
38.0
43.5
38.0
43.0
38.0
43.2
38.0
43.1
37.8
r43.2
r37.9
43.4
37.9
43.2
38.0
Chemicals and allied products .
Petroleum and coal products ..
41.8
43.7
41.9
43.8
41.9
43.6
42.0
43.4
41.9
44.0
41.9
r43.5
42.0
44.4
41.8
43.7
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products .
Leather and leather products
41.0
36.0
41.3
36.3
41.1
36.3
41.2
36.7
41.3
37.7
40.5
37.0
41.2
36.6
41.4
36.5
Durable goods industries:
42.2
39.6
Nondurable goods industries:
964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries..:
Percent rising of 34 components .
107,545
104,682
- 103,747
102,624
+ 102,730
106,220
103,845
108,985
(44)
(43)
(62)
(32)
(65)
(50)
(38)
(71)
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products.
+
-
10,614
14,274
-
9,762
13,141
+
9,625
14,653
8,831
14,024
+
-
9,323
13,998
o
9,060
13,993
+
-
10,245
13,702
+
10,069
14,102
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
+
+
18,277
15,704
+
16,081
17,066
+
-
16,800
15,467
16,441
14,650
+
+
16,888
17,913
+
-
17,233
16,953
-
16,603
15,952
+
+
16,858
17,443
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries
-
28,458
20,218
+
-
28,496
20,136
+
26,497
20,705
27,933
20,745
+
23,531
21,077
+
-
28,359
20,622
+
26,704
20,639
+
+
29,043
21,470
LNOTE: To facilitate interpretation,
the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) - falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p",
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
*Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of
change for the six major industry groups shown here.
OCTOBER 1986
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Continued
1986
Diffusion index components
February
April
March
May
August r
Julyr
June
September13
966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(1977 = 100)
124.2
124.9
125.1
125.3
(50)
(65)
(58)
(73)
+
119.7
150.8
(NA)
149.5
(NA)
(NA)
120.8
r71.4
+
119.6
73.5
119.8
72.6
(NA)
72.6
106.6
140.4
+
105.5
142.6
+ 106.b
+ 142.9
107.1
141.5
+
163.2
125.1
+ 166.8
+ 125.6
+ 167.0
125.3
167.5
127.4
140.3
101.0
-
139.9
98.3
+ 141.7
97.9
+ 142.6
+
98.2
142.6
(NA)
+
+
133.7
101.6
+
rl34.6
97.6
133.9
+ 100.0
+
134.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
111.4
103.1
-
111.3
102.6
+
-
112.6
101.7
+
+
113.1
103.3
+
-
113.5
101.5
(NA)
(NA)
132.4
157.8
134.1
161.6
+
133.2
161.9
+ rl37.2
+ rl64.0
+ 138.3
+ 166.0
+
-
138.6
163.5
(NA)
164.0
132.0
90.1
130.2
88.6
132.8
91.3
+
131.5
95.7
+ rl34.2
- r91.8
+
o
+
+
135.1
94.5
(NA)
93.1
151.1
64.8
147.8
62.7
146.8
61.5
+
150.1
59.5
+
152.2
57.9
+ 155.7
+
61.9
154.9
61.7
(NA)
(NA)
Metal mining ,
Coal
77.2
126.5
75.9
124.7
76:0
124.4
72.0
124.0
65.9
127.3
(NA)
120.2
+
(NA)
122.2
(NA)
(NA)
Oil and gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals
101.1
116.8
99.2
111.6
96.2
115.0
95.1
112.4
r93.3
114.5
92.3
111.8
90.8
114.8
90.3
+
125.3
123.6
124.7
124.2
(40)
(23)
179)
(38)
Lumber and products.
Furniture and fixtures
120.3
143.2
120.7
142.9
121.3
145.9
121.6
146.2
+
120.9
147.1
Clay, glass, and stone products.
Primary metals
:.
119.3
80.3
120.0
76.3
121.6
78.1
120.2
74.8
+
108.5
143.9
107.6
141.7
108.2
140.8
+
106.5
141,3
+
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
164.8
127.5
165.2
122.6
166.8
126.2
-
166.0
124.1
Instruments
Miscellaneous manufactures ..
141.9
100.9
142.0
99.0
142.4
99.2
+
132.9
97.0
132.2
93.6
133.1
100.3
Textile mill products
Apparel products
109.9
102.8
108.0
102.8
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
132.6
156.7
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products.
Leather and products
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components
2
o
Durable manufactures:
Fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical machinery
•
+
+
+
Nondurable manufactures:
Foods
Tobacco products
,
134.8
91.8
Mining:
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers:
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (—) - falling.
(NA)
The "r" indicates revised; " p "
*Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
»
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising-
2
78
OCTOBER 1986
licit
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
j^J
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directionsof Change—Continued
Diffusion index components
1986
February
March
April
967. INDEX OF SPOTMARKET
Raw industrials
price-index (1967 = 100)
-
233.3
Percent rising of 13 components
-
223.1
_
(35)
(38).
June
May
PRICES
219.9
+
July
August
October 1
September
RAW INDUSTRIALS 2
221.3
(54)
+
225.0
+
(65)
(62)
227.6
212.0
(50)
+
221.2
+
(65)
(50)
234.8
(73)
Dollars
(pound).,
Copper scrap
+
0.505
1.113
0.104
0.229
+
0.105
0.231
-
82.000
90.389
-
77.250
85.153
-
74.400
82.011
-
o
3
5.640
12.434
-
4.000
8.818
-
3.284
7.240
-
-
0.339
0.747
(pound)..
Lead s c r a p . .
(kilogram)..
Steel scrap . .
(U.S.
ton).,
(metric t o n ) . .
Tin
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
Zinc
..
-
0.486
1.071
(kilogram)..
-
0.488
1.076
0.110
0.243
0.464
1.023
+'
0.466
1.027
-
0.428
0.944
-
0.416
0.917
+
0.444
0.979
-
0.428
0.944
0.114
+
0.126
0.278
+
0.130
0.287
-
0.126
0.278
+
0.138
0.304
+
0.153
0.337
71.500
78.814
-
70.000
77.161
o
70.000
77.161
+
74.750
82.397
-
72.600
80.027
-
71.500
78.814
3.115
6.867
-
3.060
6.746
-
3.056
6.737
+
3.068
6.764
-
3.052
6.728
+
3.138
6.918
0.354
0.780
+
0.395
0.871
+
0.430
0.948
+
0.444
0.979
+
0.453
0.999
+
0.481
1.060
0.229
0.250
-
0.220
0.241
-
0.217
0.237
0.267
0.589
+
0.336
0.741
+
0.442
0.974
0.251
.(pound).
(kilogram),.
o
0.354
0.780
o
0.354
0.780
Burlap
• (yard)
(meter)..
-
0.231
0.253
-
0.225
0.246
0.231
0.253
+
0.240
0.262
+
0.247
0.270
-
0.242
0.265
-
Cotton
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
+
0.606
1.336
+
0.628
1.384
0.639
1.409
+
0.656
1.446
+
0.669
1.475
-
0.666
1.468
-
0.658
0.720
-
0.642
0.702
+
0.648
0.709
+
0.690
0.755
+
0.702
0.768
+
0.712
0.779
-
0,700
0.766
+
0.760
0.831
+
0.868
0.949
0
3.000
6.614
0
3.000
6.614
+
3.200
7.055
o
3.200
7.055
+
3.275
7.220
+
3.300
7.275
+
3.805
8.389
0.786
1.733
-
0.785
1.731
-
0.784
1.728
-
0.768
1.693
-
0.745
1.642
+
0.760
1.675
50.000
110.230
o
50.000
110.230
o
50.000
110.230
0
50.000
110.230
o
50.000
110.230
o
50.000
110.230
0.401
0.884
+
0.408
0.899
+
0.434
0.957
0.435
0.959
+
0.451 +
0.994
0.468
1.032
0.100
0.220
-
0.087
0.192
+
0.097
0.214
0.098
0.216
+
0.112
0.247
+
0.123
0.271
Print c l o t h . . .
(yard).,
(meter)..
Wool tops
(pound)
(kilogram)..
o
3.000
6.614
o
3.000
6.614
Hides
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
+
0.682
1.504
-
0.678
1.495
Rosin .
(100 pounds)
(100 kilograms)..
o
50.000
110.230
o
50.000
110.230
0
50.000
110.230
Rubber
(pound)
(kilogram)..
+
0.425
0.937
-
0.423
0.933
-
0.392
0.864
Tallow
(pound)..
(kilogram).,
0.128
0.282
0.106
0.234
+
+
0.729
1.607
0.108
0.238
+
0
-
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers:
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
+
+
A
( + ) ' = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (—) = falling.
The " r " indicates revised; " p " ,
1
The index is the average for October 1 through 28; component prices are averages for October 7, 14, 21, and 28.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3
Official price for October 23, 1985.
''Data beginning August 1, 1986, reflect a change in the domestic Federal price support for cotton.
OCTOBER 1986
79
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
1m
and
quarter
b. Difference
a. Total
b. Difference
a. Total
c. Percent
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
change at
annual rate
(Ann. r ate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann rate,
bit. dol.)
213. Final sales
in 1982 dollars
product in 1982
dollars
c. Percent
change at
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
217. Per capita
gross national
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars
200. Gross national product in current dollars
Year
GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME
annual rate
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1983
First quarter
Second quarter
....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
3,265.8
3,367.4
3,443.9
3,545.8
53.3
101.6
76.5
101.9
3,670.9
3,743.8
3,799.7
3,845.6
125.1
72.9
55.9
45.9
3,909.3
3,965.0
4,030.5
4,087.7
63.7
55.7
65.5
57.2
4,149.2
4,175.6
p4,234.3
61.5
26.4
P58.7
6
3
4
1
27 .3
71 .7
48 .1
58 .7
1.5
9 4
12 4
3 ,186
3,258
3,306
3,365
14
8
6
4
3 ,444
3 ,487
3 ,507
3,520
7
1
c).8
4
4
79 .6
42 .4
20 .3
13 .0
6 8
5 8
6.8
5 8
3,547.0
3 ,567 6
3 ,603 8
3 ,622 3
6 2
2 6
P5 7
3 ,655 9
3,661 4
P3 ,683 3
6 8
13.0
13,619
13,894
14,063
14,277
3,228.9
3,267.6
3 ,307.4
3 ,338.1
.3
.5
14,582
14,730
14,778
14,795
3 ,359.6
3 ,430.0
3 ,446.8
3 ,486.4
26 .6
20 .6
36 .2
18 .5
:
J.I
2 .3
kl
2 .1
14,874
14,928
15,041
15,080
3 ,523.9
3 ,550.2
3 ,603.1
3 ,627.5
33 .6
5 .5
321 .9
: .8
C.6
P2 .4
15,188
15,179
p!5,235
3 ,616.1
3 ,646.3
P3 ,687.8
c .3
I1 ..30
1984
First quarter
Second quarter
....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
9
2
1
9
c
\
\
!o
1985
First quarter
Second quarter
....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1986
First quarter
Second quarter
....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
m
1a
GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME—Continued
230. Total in current
dollars
Disposable personal income
Year
and
quarter
224. Current dollars
225. Constant
227. Per capita in
(1982) dollars
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
'Ann, rate,
bi . dol.)
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
232. Durable goods
in current dollars
231. Total in 1982
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bit dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
233. Durable goods
in 1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1983
2,345.7
2,395.4
2,443.2
2,527.9
2,288
2,311
2,335
2! 392
2,612.7
2,646.3
2,693.8
2,729.6
2,446 9
2,460. 3
2,481. 9
2,493. 1
10, 392
10, 457
10, 477
2,363
2 ,416
2 ,445
2 ,487
.8
1
6
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986
2,755.4
2,842.3
2,832.0
2,882.2
2,495. 7
2,550. 8
2,524. 7
2,540. 7
10, 466
10, 674
10, 537
10, 577
2,530
2,576
2 ,627
2,667
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
2,935.1
2,978.5
p2,983.0
2,581. 2
2,625. 8
p2,611. 2
10, 723
10, 886
P10, 800
First quarter
Second quarter
....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
4
1
4
7
9, 780
9, 855
2 , 1 4 6 .6
2 ,213 .0
2,094 2
2,1,35 1
Q
0
O 1 C") A
c., J,Do u
lO! 151
266.7
284.5
263.3
280.0
2,191 9
3io!o
300.5
2
2,213
2,246
2,253
2,271
8
3
3
7
321.2
331.3
331.8
340.4
311.1
319.0
318.8
326.8
9
0
1
9
2,292 3
2,311. 9
2,342. 0
2,351. 7
347.7
354.0
373.3
362.0
332.3
338.8
357.4
347.0
2 ,697 9
2 ,732 0
P2 , 7 9 9 3
2,372. 7
2,408! 4
p2,450 4
360.8
373.9
P410.2
345.4
357.1
FJ387.3
Q
L , COi- • O
2 ,315 .8
OQQ C
COO. J
1984
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
....
Fourth quarter
1985
....
1 0 , 358
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 4 1 .
OCTOBER 1986
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
•
Year
and
quarter
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES—Continued
238. Nondurable
goods in 1982
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
^ Q
237. Services in
current dollars
239. Services in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
240. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
241. Total in
1982 dollars
242. Fixed investment in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
243. Fixed investment in 1982
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
791.0
810.9
827.0
837.9
786.3
795.7
806.2
812.7
1,088.9
1,117.6
1,140.6
1,167.9
1,044.6 •
1,059.4
1,068.3
1,078.6
428.3
481.3
519.7
579.8
427.1
486.9
524.8
577.2
471.0
492.5
525.2
548.8
469.4
496.2
525.8
550.3
855.7
870.3
873.9
880.3
819.7
832.8
831.7
830.5
1,186.9
1,214.5
1,239.9
1,266.5
1,083.0
1,094.6
1,102.8
1,114.4
659.5
657.5
670.3
661.1
649.3
649.7
658.9
649.9
564.0
597.6
605.8
624.4
564.1
592.7
598.3
615.9
888.2
902.3
907.4
922.6
834.3
841.3
843.8
847.2
1,294.9
1,319.7
1,346.4
1,383.2
1,125.8
1,131.8
1,140.8
1,157.5
650.6
667.1
657.4
669.5
638.2
655.6
643.8
653.2
625.2
648.0
654.3
672.6
615.0
638.1
643.1
658.4
929.7
928.4
P935.5
860.6
877.3
P879.1
1,407.4
1,429.8
pi,453.6
1,166.6
1,174.0
708.3
687.3
P674.7
684.0
664.7
P648.6
664.4
672.8
P682.3
644.1
649.6
P653.2
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
f i r s t quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
IQftfi
1300
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
• •
mii
ytt,r
Tear
and
quarter
pi,184.0
D
GROSS PRIVATE
DOMESTIC INVEST.—Con.
245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bii. dol.)
260. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
261. Total in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
262. Federal
Government in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
263. Federal
Government in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
266. State and
local government
in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
267. State and
local government
in 1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
-42.6
-11.2
-5.5
31.0
-42.3
-9.3
-1.0
27.0
668.1
675.2
680.7
676.1
649.2
650.9
653.6
642.2
285.5
287.7
284.9
276.1
278.2
278.5
277.6
266.0
382.7
387.5
395.8
400.0
371.0
372.4
376.0
376.2
95.5
59.9
64.4
36.7
85.1
57.0
60.6
33.9
693.2
733.3
743.8
763.4
650.2
678.2
681.0
691.5
283.4
315.2
317.2
329.1
271.2
296.3
295.6
303.8
409.8
418.1
426.6
434.3
379.0
381.8
385.4
387.7
25.4
19.1
3.1
-3.1
23.2
17.4
0.7
-5.2
777.3
799.0
829.7
855.6
695.3
708.3
731.8
749.4
333.7
340.9
360.9
380.9
305.8
311.4
329.9
347.2
443.5
458.1
468.8
474.7
389.5
396.9
401.9
402.2
43.8
14.5
p-7.5
39.9
15.1
p-4.5
836.7
860.8
P870.4
725.2
742.2
P748.8
355.7
367.6
P365.7
320.4
328.9
P329.3
480.9
493.3
P504.7
404.8
413.3
P419.5
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43.
OCTOBER 1986
81
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
^ J
Year
and
quarter
252. Current
dollars
255. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
280. Compensation of
employees
257. Constant
(1982) dollars
253. Current
dollars
256. Constant
(1982) dollars
NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS
220. National income in current
dollars
Imports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services
Net exports of goods and services
250. Current
dollars
• •
i l l
FOREIGN TRADE
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1983
22.7
-2.1
-19.3
-25.8
16.1
-14.6
-35.0
-46.2
343.6
344.1
357.7
364.7
342.5
341.7
352.8
355.5
320.9
346.2
376.9
390.5
326.4
356.3
387.8
401.6
2,599.1
2,685.5
2,741.8
2,851.5
1,958.8
1,995.0
2,036.3
2,092.7
-45.6
-63.2
-60.0
-66.1
-68.6
-87.2
-85.7
-92.7
373.4
382.1
389.2
386.2
361.3
367.0
375.5
375.0
419.0
445.3
449.1
452.2
429.9
454.2
461.2
467.7
2,963.2
3,010.3
3,052.3
3,102.0
2,153.7
2,195.4
2,234.7
2,275.0
-49.4
-77.1
-83.7
-105.3
-78.8
-108.1
-113.8
-132.0
378.4
370.0
362.3
368.2
369.4
361.2
355.8
362.9
427.9
447.1
446.0
473.6
448.2
469.3
469.6
494.8
3,157.0
3,201.4
3,243.4
3,287.3
2,316.3
2,352.1
2,380.9
2,423.6
-93.7
-104.5
p-110.1
-125.9
-153.9
p-164.6
374.8
363.0
P373.5
369.2
359.8
P372.9
468.5
467.5
P483.7
495.1
513.6
P537.5
3,340.7
3,376.4
(NA)
2,461.5
2,480.2
P2.507.8
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
Q [
282. Proprietors'
income with tVA
andCCAdj1
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Q
NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS—Continued
284. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
286. Corporate
profits before tax
with IVA and
CCAdj1
288. Net interest
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
290. Gross saving
(Ann. rale,
bil. dol.)
SAVING
292. Personal
saving
295. Business
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
183.9
192.3
179.5
207.8
13.8
15.4
11.2
12.4
170.6
207.0
228.9
248.5
272.1
275.8
285.9
290.2
424.2
448.2
462.3
519.9
433.9
453.0
472.0
487.3
139.5
121.1
116.4
145.4
242.5
229.6
234.6
240.7
12.1
8.4
7.1
5.6
262.5
271.7
259.8
265.0
292.5
305.2
316.1
315.7
580.7
568.7
578.2
565.5
489.0
505.0
510.0
520.3
179.2
157.6
172.9
165.0
250.7
255.5
249.3
262.1
6.8
8.1
7.3
8.3
266.4
274.3
296.3
285.6
316.8
311.4
309.7
307.6
573.2
566.8
541.7
524.1
525.6
538.9
560.1
553.5
144.1
183.6
119.6
125.8
265.3
289.1
P279.3
12.8
16.3
P16.3
296.4
293.1
(NA)
304.9
297.7
P292.5
583.2
539.7
(NA)
569.2
565.6
(NA)
145.6
153.1
p87.5
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.
l
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
82
OCTOBER 1986
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Q
Year
and
quarter
Q
SAVING—Continued
298. Government
surplus or deficit
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
293. Personal
saving rate
Percent of gross national product
235. Personal consumption expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
248. Presidential
fixed investment
(Percent)
251. Net exports of
goods and services
247. Change in
business inventories
249. Residential
fixed investment
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
-149.2
-126.0
-126.2
-112.9
5.9
5.1
4.8
5.8
65.7
65.7
65.7
65.3
10.4
10.2
10.4
10.8
4.0
4.4
4.9
4.7
-1.3
-0.3
-0.2
0.9
0.7
-0.1
-0.6
-0.7
-87.5
-93.9
-104.8
-119.9
6.9
6.0
6.4
6.0
64.4
64.5
64.4
64.7
10.6
11.0
11.1
11.5
4.8
4.9
4.8
4.7
2.6
1.6
1.7
1.0
-1.2
-1.7
-1.6
-1.7
-96.6
-155.6
-138.0
-155.1
5.2
6.5
4.2
4.4
64.7
65.0
65.2
65.3
11.3
11.6
11.4
11.6
4.7
4.8
4.8
4.9
0.6
0.5
0.1
-0.1
-131.6
-179.0
(NA)
5.0
5.1
p2.9
65.0
65.4
P66.1
11.1
11.0
plO.9
4.9
5.2
P5.-2
1.1
0.3
p-0.2
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter .....
1985
First q u a r t e r
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . . . . .
Fourth quarter . . . .
,
-1.3
-1.9
-2.1
-2.6
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter . . . . .
Fourth quarter . . . .
Q
Year
and
quarter
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME—Continued
Percent of GNP—Continued
265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services
Percent of national income
268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services
(Percent)
-2.3
-2.5
p-2.6
(Percent)
64. Compensation of
employees
(Percent)
1
283. Proprietors
income with IVA
and CCAdj'
(Percent)
285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj1
287. Corporate profits
before tax with
IVA and CCAdj1
(Percent)
(Percent)
289. Net interest
(Percent)
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
8.7
8.5
8.3
7.8
11.7
11.5
11.5
11.3
75.4
74.3
74.3
73.4
7.1
7.2
6.5
7.3
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.4
6.6
7.7
8.3
8.7
10.5
10.3
10.4
10.2
7.7
8.4
8.3
8.6
11.2
11.2
11.2
11.3
72.7
72.9
73.2
73.3.
8.2
7.6
7.7
7.8
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2
8.9
9.0
8.5
8.5
9.9
10.1
10.4
10.2
8.5
8.6
9.0
9.3
11.3
11.6
11.6
11.6
73.4
73.5
73.4
73.7
7.9
8.0
7.7
8.0
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
8.4
8.6
9.1
8.7
10.0
9.7
9.5
9.4
8.6
8.8
P8.6
11.6
11.8
pll.9
73.7
73.5
(NA)
7.9
8.6
(NA)
0.4
0.5
(NA)
8.9
8.7
(NA)
9.1
8.8
(NA)
1984
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
^ V A , inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
OCTOBER 1986
83
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
Q |
310. Index
(1982 = 100)
Consumer price index
for all urban consumers
Fixed-weighted price index,
gross domestic business product
Implicit price deflator for
gross national product
Year
and
month
PRICE MOVEMENTS
310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
311. Index
(1982=100)'
31lc. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
320. Index ©
320c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
Consumer price index for
all urban consumers, food
320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
322. Index
322c. Change
over 1-month
spans'
322c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(1967 = 100)
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967-100)
4,0
305.2
306.6
307.3
0.6
0.4
0.3
4.6
4.3
4.2
299.7
300.9
301.2
1.3
0.4
0.1
5.1
4.4
4.1
3.4
308.8
309.7
310.7
0.4
0.2
0.3
3.6
3.7
3.9
301.5
300.9
301.9
0.1
-0.2
0.3
2.1
2.5
2.5
3.4
311.7
313.0
314.5
0.3
0.4
0.4
3.7
3.8
3.8
302.8
304.7
304.9
0.3
0.6
0.1
2.9
3,6
3.5
3.5
315.3
315.3
315.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
3.5
3.3
3.5
305.8
306.2
307.2
0.3
0.1
0.3
3.3
2.3
2.4
3.4
316.1
317.4
318.8
0.2
0.3
0.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
307.7
308.2
308.6
0.2
0.2
0.1
1.9
1.4
1.2
3.4
320.1
321.3
322.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
3.6
3.4
2.8
308.7
308.4
309.1
0.0
-0.1
0.2
1.0
0.9
1.4
2.5
322.8
323.5
324.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
2.9
3.6
3.8
309.2
309.6
310.7
0.0
0.1
0.4
1.6
3.1
4.0
3.6
325.5
326.6
327.4
0.4
0.6
0.4
4.1
2.9
1.6
311.1
313.2
315.2
0.1
0.7
0.6
4.4
2.7
2.2
2.1
328.4
327-5
326.0
0.3
-0.4
-0.4
0.3
-0.4
-0.2
315.9
313.8
314.1
0.2
-0.7
0.1
2.5
2.1
1 n
1.2
325.3
326.3
327.9
-0.3
0.2
0.5
-0.8
0.3
1.8
315.0
316.4
316.7
0.3
0.4
0.1
2.3
5.6
6.3
p2.2
328.0
328.6
330.2
0.0
0.2
0.3
319.5
322.5
323.9
0.9
0.9
0.4
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1984
4.6
January
February
March
106.6
April
May
June
107^4
July
August
September
108*. 3
October
November
December
109*. 2
106.3
3.0
IO7I2
3.4
108! i
3.4
109! i
1985
January
February
March
llb'.2
April
May
June
nil i
July
August
September
nils
October
November
December
112*8
3.7
116I6
3.3
110! 9
2.5
ni*.6
3.6
112.6
. ..
1986
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
2.5
113.5
113.2
1.8
11416
piisio
113!5
p3.6
piii!i
1. u
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
84
OCTOBER 1986
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Q
Producer price index, all commodities
Year
and
month
330. Index ©
(1967 = 100)
330c. Change
over 1-month
spans 1 ©
(Percent)
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued
Producer price index, crude materials
for further processing
Producer price index, industrial commodities
330c. Change
over 6-month
l
spans
335. Index
©
©
335c, Change
over 1-month
spans' ©
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967 = 100)
(Percent)
335c. Change
over 6-month
spans'©
(Ann, rate,
percent)
331. Index
(1967-100)
331c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(Percent)
331c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1984
308.0
308.9
311.0
0.6
0.3
0.7
3.5
4.0
3.4
319.1
320.6
321.9
0.2
0.5
0.4
2.6
3.1
3.4
335.4
329.5
337.1
1.2
-1.8
2.3
3.6
3.7
-0.3
April
May
June
311.3
311.5
311.3
0.1
0.1
-0.1
2.5
1.2
-1.1
322.6
323.2
323.8
0.2
0.2
0.2
3.0
1.7
0 2
335.5
333.9
330 8
-0.5
-1.7
-0.5
-0 9
0.0
-5 3
July
August
September
311.9
310.7
309.3
0.2
-0.4
-0.5
-1.2
-0.8
-1.0
323.9
323.3
322.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.3
0.5
0.4
-0.5
332.5
329.5
328.1
0.5
-0.9
-0.4
-6.6
-4.1
-3.2
October
November
December
309.4
310.3
309.8
0.0
0.3
-0.2
-1.5
-1.0
-0 5
323.4
323.8
323 0
0.4
0.1
-0 2
-0.6
-0.7
0 2
324.3
326.9
325 4
-1.2
0.8
-0 5
-6.9
-8.5
-10 2
January
February
March
309.5
309.1
308.6
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.1
-0.3
-0.4
322.9
322.2
322.5
0.0
-0.2
0.1
0.2
0.9
1.1
320.8
315.2
311.0
-1.4
-1.7
-1.3
-10,2
-12.6
-12.8
April
May
June
309.3
309.8
309.2
0.2
0.2
-0.2
-0.3
-1.2
-2.0
323.8
325.3
324.8
0.4
0.5
-0.2
0.9
0.9
-0.1
307.3
305.6
303.8
-1.2
-0.6
-0.6
-10.8
-11.8
-11.2
July
August
September
309.0
307.3
305.5
-0.1
-0.6
-0.6
-0.9
-0.2
0.6
324.4
323.7
322.3
-0.1
-0.2
-0.4
0.2
-0.4
0.2
303.0
296.1
293.1
-0.3
-2.3
-1.0
-3.3
1.6
2.1
October
November
December
307.9
309.5
310.2
0.8
0.5
0.2
-0.1
-1.9
-3.4
324.2
324.7
325.1
0.6
0.2
0.1
-0.4
-2.9
-5.1
302.2
308.0
307.0
3.1
1.9
-0.3
-0.1
-6.3
-8.6
January
February
March
308.9
304.4
300.3
-0.4
-1.5
-1.3
-6.2
-6.5
-7.2
323.8
318.9
314 0
-0.4
-1.5
-1 5
-7.6
r-7.9
-8 1
302.9
286.6
280.2
-1.3
-5.4
-2 2
-19.8
r-19.5
-20 9
April
May
June
298.2
299.2
298.9
-0.7
0.3
-0.1
-7.1
-4.7
-1.7
311.6
r311.6
311 6
-0.8
0.0
0 0
-9.2
-6.9
-3.3
270.7
r276.4
273 0
-3.4
r2.1
r-1 2
-16.7
-7.3
-2 1
July
August
September
297.7
297.2
297.7
-0.4
-0.2
0.2
308.5
307.7
308.8
-1.0
-0.3
0.4
276.4
275.9
277.3
1.2
-0.2
0.5
January
February
March
..
1985
1986
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
Changes are centered within the spans:
OCTOBER 1986
1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
85
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued
Producer price index, intermediate
materials, supplies, and components
Year
and
month
332, Index
(1967-100)
332c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(Percent)
Producer price index, capital equipment
332c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
333. Index
(1967 = 100)
333c. Change
over 1-month
spans'
(Percent)
Producer price index, finished consumer goods
333c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
334. Index
(1967-100)
334c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
334c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Percent)
{Ann. rate,
percent)
1984
January
February
March
317.1
317.9
319.7
0.3
0.3
0.6
2.7
3.2
3.2
291.0
291.7
292.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
3.7
2.9
2.5
288.6
289.3
290.7
0.8
0.2
0.5
3.0
3.7
2.9
April
May
June
320.2
320.9
321.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
2.4
1.6
0.2
294.3
293.6
293.8
0.7
2.4
2.3
2.4
290.8
290,7
290.5
0.0
0.0
-0.1
1.7
0.7
-0.5
July
August
September . . .
320.9
320.4
320.0
-0.1
-0.6
294.5
295.0
295.8
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.5
1.6
1.2
291.0
290.3
290.0
0.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.5
0.1
0.4
October
November . . .
December . . .
320.4
320.7
320.4
0.1
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.9
-0.9
295.0
295.9
295.6
-0.3
0.3
-0.1
1.6
2.5
2.4
290.0
290.8
291.1
0.0
0.3
0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
January
February
March
320.4
319.0
318.6
0.0
-0.4
-0.1
-0.7
-0.4
-1.2
296.8
298.6
299.3
0.4
0.6
0.2
3.1
2.8
3.3
290.5
290.0
289.9
-0.2
-0.2
0.0
1.3
1.2
0.3
April
May
June
319.3
320.0
318.5
0.2
0.2
-0.5
-1.6
-1.0
-0.9
299.6
300.0
300.4
0.1
2.6
1.8
0.3
291.9
292.6
291.6
0.7
0.2
-0.3
1.4
0.8
-0.2
July
August
September . . .
317.8
317.4
317.2
-0.2
-1.1
300.
301.
299.
0.1
0.2
-0.5
2.1
2.3
2.3
292,
291.
289.
0.3
-0.4
-0.5
0.1
1.3
3.5
October
November . . .
December . . .
317.5
318.6
319.9
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.4
-2.3
-4.4
302,
303.
303.8
1.0
0.2
0.1
1.7
1.6
3.1
292.
294.
296.7
0.9
0.8
,0.7
1.1
-2.3
-3.8
318.4
313.8
310.1
-0.5
-1.4
-1.2
-6.4
-7.6
-8.3
303.
303.
304.
-0.2
0.1
0.2
1.7
rl.3
1.3
294.1
287.8
284.1
-0.9
-2.1
-1.3
-6.9
r-7.2
-8.6
307.1
r306.2
306.4
-1.0
-0.3
rO.l
-8.6
-6.0
-2.8
305,
r305.
305.
0.3
rO.O
0.1
2.0
1.9
2.2
281.9
r283.7
283.6
-0.8
r0.6
rO.O
-8.1
-3.4
0.0
304.4
304.2
305.8
-0.7
-0.1
0.5
281.9
282.9
284.1
-0.6
0.4
0.4
1985
1986
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
306.3
306.6
307.7
0.2
0.1
0.4
October
November . , .
December . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
1
Changes are centered within the spans:
1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
OCTOBER 1986
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly earnings of production or rtonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls'
Year
and
month
Real earnings
Current-dollar earnings
340. index
(1977 = 100)
340c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
340c. Change
over 6-month
spans*
(Ann. rate,
percent)
341. Index
(1977 = 100)
341c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)
Current-dollar compensation
341c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
345. Index
(1977 = 100)
345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2
345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1984
January
February
March
158.4
158.3
158.9
0.4
0.0
0.3
3.0
2.7
2.9
94.7
94.6
94.9
-0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.9
0.4
0.5
165.*i
April
May
June
159.6
159.5
160 0
0.5
-0.1
0 4
2.8
2.8
3 2
95.3
94.9
95 0
0.4
-0.5
0 2
0.5
-1.4
-2 0
166*4
July
August
September
160.6
160.5
161.4
0.3
0.0
0.5
2.2
3.1
3.4
94.9
94.0
94.0
-0.1
-1.0
0.0
-2.8
-1.4
-1.2
168 .* 1
October
November
December
161.4
162.0
162.7
0.0
0.4
0.5
2.7
3.9
3.1
93.9
94.2
94.4
-0.1
0.3
0.2
-1.4
1.1
0.5
169.8
January . . . . . . . . .
February
March
162.7
163.6
163,8
0.0
0.5
0.2
3.5
3.1
3.1
94.3
94.5
94.2
-0.2
0.2
-0.3
0.2
-0.3
-0.4
m.*5
April
May
June
164.2
164.4
165.2
0.2
0.2
0.5
2.7
2.3
3.1
94.0
94.1
94.2
-0.2
0.0
0.2
-0.7
-0.9
0.4
173.3
July
August
September
165.0
165.5
166.4
-0.2
0.3
0.5
2.4
2.9
3.1
93.9
94.1
94.4
-0.3
0.1
0.4
0.0
-0.3
-0.5
174.7
October
November
December
166.2
166.8
167.7
-0.1
0.4
0.6
2.9
3.3
2.6
94.0
93.9
94.0
-0.4
-0.1
0.1
-1.0
0.7
1.5
176.2
January
February
March
167.3
168.2
168.5
-0.3
0.5
0.2
2.7
2.3
1.7
93.5
94.4
95.1
-0.6
1.0
0.8
2.9
3.2
2.6
177*6
April
May
June
168.4
168.7
169.2
-0.1
0.2
0.3
1.8
rl.2
pi.3
95.4
95.4
95.2
0.3
0.0
-0.2
r3.5
1.4
p-0.1
178.5
rl68.9
169.2
P169.7
-0.2
0.2
pO.3
95.1
95.1
P95.0
-0.2
0.0
pO.O
4.9
4*3
3.2
4.'l
4.3
3*9
4.1
4*2
1985
.......
3.9
3.9
4.4
3.8
3.2
3.6
3.6
3*0
1986
July
August
September
3.1
p2*8
r2.2
p2.4
pl79*6
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
l
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month,
ter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
2
OCTOBER 1986
1-quar-
87
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
WAGES AND PRODUCTiVITY—Continued
Negotiated wage and
benefit decisions
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector—Continued
Year
and
month
Real compensation
346. Index
(1977 = 100)
346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'
346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spansl
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
348. Average
first-year
changes ®
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Output per hour, all persons, business sector
349. Average
changes over
life of
contract ©
(Ann, rate,
percent)
370. Index
(1977 = 100)
370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'
370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
358. Index of
output per hour,
all persons,
nonfarm business sector
(1977 = 100)
1984
January
February
March
97.6
April ,
May ,
June ,
97.5
July
August
September . . .
97.6
October
November . . .
December . . .
97.7
-0.2
5.1
0.1
-0.4
4.7
3.5
3.2
0,1
3.1
0.3
2.0
0.5
103.9
1.6
104.6
0.8
104.4
0.8
104.3
1.7
104.4
0.9
104.9
1.5
105.4
rl.O
104.5
pO.l
105.6
-0.3
105.5
3.7
0.4
2.4
2.6
105.6
2.7
0.5
4.4
104.9
-0.1
105.5
1985
January .
February
March . .
97.9
April
May . . , .
June
98.0
July
August
September . . .
98.1
October
November . . .
December . . .
98.0
3.6
0.6
2.7
0.5
3.5
0.3
3.4
0.2
3.0
0.5
-0.7
2.7
106.4
2.0
0.6
0.9
105.7
3.4
107.3
2.0
rl.4
1.4
-3.2
106.4
1986
January
February
March
98.4
April
May
June
99.3
July
August
September . . .
1.6
P99.3
p0.4
pi.2
3.9
p-0.2
rpl.2
3.3
107.3
p0.7
pi.6
rlO7.4
pi.9,
pi.9
rO.5
rlO5.7
pO.l
P107.4
plOS.8
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
1
Changcs are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are
placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
OCTOBER 1986
BCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C
I
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Q
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month
441. Total
442. Civilian
employment
Number unemployed
37. Persons
unemployed
444. Males
20 years
and over
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
445. Females
20 years
and over
446. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
447. Number
unemployed,
full-time
workers
448. Number
employed
part time
for economic
reasons
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
Civilian labor force participation rates
451. Males
20 years
and over
452. Females
20 years
and over
453. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age
(Percent)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
January
February
March
112,191
112,683
112,734
103,209
103,846
103,959
8,982
8,837
8,775
4,242
4,133
4,059
3,189
3,146
3,140
1,551
1,558
1,576
7,493
7,300
7,312
5,714
5,713
5,479
78.3
78.3
78.3
53.0
53.3
53.4
53.0
53.7
53.5
April
May
June
113,083
113,722
113,818
104,318
105,175
105,580
8,765
8,547
8,238
4,058
3,943
3,783
3,149
3,100
2,976
1,558
1,504
1,479
7,327
7,067
6,597
5,549
5,328
5,571
78.2
78.3
78.5
53.6
54.1
53.8
54.0
54.0
54.8
July
August
September
113,922
113,718
113,795
105,466
105,222
105,415
8,456
8,496
8,380
3,877
3,864
3,830
3,131
3,181
3,016
1,448
1,451
1,534
6,980
6,970
6,898
5,481
5,351
5,443
78.4
78.3
78.3
54.0
53.9
53.6
54.4
53.2
54.4
October
November
December
114,036
114,165
114,504
105,657
105,971
106,248
8,379
8,194
8,256
3,739
3,727
3,775
3,186
3,070
3,002
1,454
1,397
1,479
6,968
6,778
6,837
5,498
5,390
5,611
78.2
78.2
78.3
53.9
54.0
54.0
54.0
53.9
54.4
January
February
March
114,754
114,982
115,335
106,315
106,587
106,951
8,439
8,395
8,384
3,766
3,763
3,743
3,160
3,140
3,168
1,513
1,492
1,473
6,920
6,923
6,831
5,392
5,098
5,421
78.2
78.1
78.2
54.4
54.4
54.6
54.8
55.4
55.5
April
May
June
115,256
115,339
115,024
106,872
106,939
106,601
8,384
8,400
8,423
3,775
3,696
3,862
3,178
3,199
3,152
1,431
1,505
1,409
6,845
6,816
6,770
5,402
5,550
5,278
78.1
78.2
78.1
54.6
54.5
54.6
54.9
55.3
52.4
July
August
September
115,272
115,343
115,790
106,871
107,210
107,519
8,401
8,133
8,271
3,755
3,633
3,656
3,120
3,143
3,195
1,526
1,357
1,420
6,901
6,683
6,766
5,328
5,413
5,299
77.9
78.0
78.1
54.5
54.6
54.8
54.9
53.5
54.1
October
November
December
116,114
116,130
116,229
107,813
107,969
108,206
8,301
8,161
8,023
3,677
3,656
3,566
3,054
3,057
2,988
1,570
1,448
1,469
6,726
6,713
6,583
5,241
5,295
5,294
78.1
78.1
78.0
54.9
54.9
55.0
54.8
54.3
54.0
January
February
March
116,786
117,088
117,207
108,955
108,561
108,788
7,831
8,527
8,419
3,507
3,799
3,809
2,915
3,211
3,155
1,409
1,517
1,455
6,435
6,922
6,918
5,275
5,158
5,301
78.4
78.3
78.3
55.0
55.0
55.0
53.1
55.2
55.1
April
May
June
117,234
117,664
118,116
108,892
109,110
109,673
8,342
8,554
8,443
3,663
3,897
3,827
3,097
3,125
3,104
1,582
1,532
1,512
6,783
7,037
6,756
5,621
5,673
5,320
78.0
78.1
78.2
55O1
55.4
55.7
55.7
55.6
54.7
July
August
September
118,072
118,182
118,220
109,882
110,155
109,891
8,190
8,027
8,329
3,824
3,628
3,798
2,998
2,990
3,042
1,368
1,409
1,488
6,671
6,497
6,785
5,191
5,259
5,298
78.0
77.9
77.9
55.8
55.9
55.7
54.1
54.9
54.9
(Percent)
(Percent)
1984
1985
1986
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 51.
OCTOBER 1986
89
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
^ |
Federal Goyernmen t1
Year
and
month
500. Surplus
or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Q
RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
State and local government'
501. Receipts
502. Expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
510. Surplus
or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
DEFENSE INDICATORS
Advance measures of defense activity
511. Receipts
512. Expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred
(Mil. dol.)
525. Defense
Department
prime contract awards
543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding
548. Manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1984
January
February
March
-154.0
71ll2
865'.2
66\5
526.5
46C)!b
21,145
22,667
23,445
15,089
14,273
13,779
142,169
145,648
150,842
6,503
6,884
11,713
April
May
June
-163.9
72ll7
885.6
7o!6
538! 8
468!)
19,185
20,342
19,781
11,398
9,459
11,644
149,369
149,452
151,538
5,139
6,648
6,834
July
August
September
-17L9
729.2
901.1
67l2
542^9
475!8
20,988
23,098
22,191
10,101
12,647
11,441
152,828
156,271
156,950
7,600
8,090
7,301
October
November
December
-190.1
743! 9
934.0
7o!z
555^3
485.0
20,821
28,892
26,686
12,901
25,552
7,017
159,226
168,321
172,010
5,167
10,091
7,448
January
February
March
-162i2
793.3
955^4
65^6
561! 3
495!6
22,492
20,377
20,346
12,449
12,432
10,360
174,180
173,704
174,338
11,061
4,708
6,240
April . .
May . .
June
-2li!8
755.8
970.6
59.2
57^9
512.6
22,655
25,140
29,513
9,658
14,147
11,627
174,867
178,000
179,337
6,130
8,773
11,238
July
August
September
-197.5
792^6
990.1
59^5
584^2
524!7
31,641
34,470
30,753
12,163
17,579
11,702
182,074
187,278
186,401
9,594
10,270
8,106
October
November
December
-217[6
805! 8
1,023.4
62^5
592! 7
53CL2
28,629
25,809
30,768
10,584
10,086
14,088
185,059
182,400
183,504
6,179
6,810
7,152
-2oi!e
800*0
l.ooiis
7o!6
608! 4
538!5
26,792
29,492
19 19A
13,424
9,318
185,822
188,008
10,350
7,200
1 n A/LI
1985
1986
January
February
March .
April
May . .
June . .
-238!1
(NA)
'SCO
807 '.7
1,045,7
59^6
611.6
552!e
28,162
29,221
34 945
12,855
8,849
13 493
188,903
189,004
1 en 907
6,500
8,430
7 9^1
(NA)
pi,024.0
(NA)
(NA)
p564!8
31,541
p30,323
(NA)
15,992
pl3,088
(NA)
196,185
pl98,635
(NA)
10,157
r8,332
p8,451
. ,
July
August
September
1 A
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
1
Based on national income and product accounts.
90
OCTOBER 1986
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
I
Q
DEFENSE INDICATORS—Continued
National defense
purchases
Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month
557. Index of
industrial
production,
defense and
space equipment
(1977 = 100)
559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products, book
value
561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
580. Defense
Department
net outlays,
military
(Mil. dol.)
588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products
570. Employment, defense
products industries
(Mil. dol.)
(Thous.)
Defense Department
personnel
577. Military
on active
duty (u)
578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment
564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services,
national
defense
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
565. National
defense purchases as a
percent of
GNP
(Percent)
1984
148.8
150.6
151.1
17,861
18,190
18,746
113,575
114,624
120,647
18,448
17,801
17,794
5,682
5,835
5,690
1,391
1,398
1,408
2,130
2,135
2,140
1,049
1,049
1,051
155.0
154.9
155 8
19,017
19,514
20 035
119,870
120,758
121 672
18,525
18,609
18 953
5,916
5,760
5 920
1,414
1,424
1 435
2,138
2,141
? ivn
1,052
1,056
i
July
August
September
156.1
159.2
161.2
20,734
21,315
22,141
123,219
125,276
126,496
18,405
19,181
19,469
6,053
6,033
6,081
1,444
1,452'
1,461
,2,142
2,144
2,138
October
November
December
160.8
160.4
162.9
22,551
22,581
22,517
125,340
129,092
129,775
18,687
20,152
19,899
6,323
6,339
6,765
1,470
1,474
1,485
January
February
March
163.2
164.2
166.0
23,091
23,405
23,489
134,455
132,467
131,990
18,762
20,058
20,465
6,380
6,695
6 718
April
May . .
June
167.1
168.3
169.9
24,006
23,962
24,721
131,769
133,958
137,975
19,597
20,603
20 554
July
August
September
170.8
173.3
174.5
25,317
25,923
26,476
140,742
143,848
144,828
October
November . .
December
174,8
177.2
178.5
26,587
26,598
26,270
January
February
March
178.7
176.3
176.2
April
May
June
January
February
March
April
May
June .
. . .
22l'.l
6!2
233.7
6.2
1,060
1,062
1,057
234.'5
6*.2
2,138
2,141
2,138
1,068
1,069
1,069
244^9
6^4
1,496
1,506
1,514
2,146
2,147
2,148
1,073
1,074
1 076
248^9
6^4
6,352
6,584
7 221
1,521
1,530
1 541
2,148
2,149
2 151
1,081
1,084
1 084
255!l
SA
21,498
22,489
21,987
6,827
7,164
7,126
1,549
1,569
1,565
2,156
2,157'
2,151
1,091
1,094
1,099
26^5
6*.6
143,336
142,288
141,497
20,908
21,847
22,443
7,671
7,858
7,943
1,572
1,581
1,580
2,151
2,153
2,150
1,099
},098
1,100
268.0
6.6
26,762
26,254
27,080
144,814
144,433
147,801
20,152
21,586
23,342
7,033
7,581
7,079
1,589
1,590
1,589
2,157
2,160
2,160
1,103
1,087
1,084
266^4
6^4
178.0
178.0
178.4
27,565
27,754
28,117
146,968
147,912
147,201
22,101
22,921
21,954
7,333
7,486
7,964
1,594
1,598
1,576
2,150
2,150
2,143
1,081
1,072
1,060
278*.4
6*.7
rl79.5
rl81.5
P181.9
2.8,149
28,466
(NA)
149,275
rl49,963
pl50,744
22,538
r21,714
p23,886
8,083
r7,644
p7,670
rl,605
pi,612
(NA)
2,150
2,161
p2,169
1,059
1,052
(NA)
P277.6
p6.5
ncc
1985
1986
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
OCTOBER 1986
91
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Q |
602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments
604. Exports of domestic
agricultural products
MERCHANDISE TRADE
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
612. General imports
Year
and
month
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum
products
616. Imports of automobiles and parts
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1984
January
February
March
17,889
17,208
17,906
3,457
3,198
3,336
4,009
3,848
3,764
26,204
26,420
26,948
4,515
4,660
5,393
3,684
3,751
3,680
April
May
June
17,520
17,978
17,705
3,030
3,245
2,715
3,811
3,976
3,746
28,074
26,012
25,279
6,000
5,113
4,694
3,838
3,635
3,683
July . . .
August
September
19,154
18,123
18,210
3,236
3,022
3,153
3,790
3,878
3,640
31,334
26,866
28,409
4,674
4,021
4,261
3,947
3,773
4,302
October
November
December
18,411
18,395
19,142
2,799
3,242
3,314
4,007
3,905
4,128
26,783
27,331
25,933
4,007
4,637
4,298
3,600
3,817
3,732
January
February
March
19,401
17,853
18,446
2,945
2,842
2,436
4,247
3,970
4,160
28,297
27,985
28,129
4,005
3,833
3,411
4,033
4,999
4,243
April
May
June
17,779
17,414
17,438
2,624
2,215
2,218
3,970
4,073
3,952
28,295
28,685
29,425
4,936
5,237
4,842
4,350
4,073
4,932
July
August
September
17,412
17,423
17,732
2,184
2,347
2,080
3,615
3,897
3,777
26,630
26,083
31,764
3,342
3,252
4,041
4,161
4,489
5,555
October
November
December
17,368
17,976
17,024
2,351
2,446
2,426
3,694
3,918
3,730
27,594
30,285
32,888
3,811
4,367
5,079
4,198
5,461
5,758
January
February
March
'17,006
X
17,734
MS,911
2,320
2,283
2,135
3,854
4,294
3,740
'32,005
'28,895
'31,972
4,978
4,254
3,578
5,044
5,378
5,018
April
May
June
'17,964
'17,430
x
19,069
2,043
1,960
1,819
3,981
3,644
3,582
'28,762
'30,272
'31,764
2,084
2,718
2,731
5,044
5,054
5,535
July
August
September
*17,707
'17,601
(NA)
2,062
2,231
(NA)
3,585
4,091
(NA)
'34,121
'29,476
(NA)
2,483
2,225
(NA)
6,242
6,280
(NA)
1985
1986
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
'Not seasonally adjusted. See item 7 of "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iv of the March 1986 issue.
92
OCTOBER 1986
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Q |
GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)
Merchandise, adjusted'
Goods and services
Year
and
month
667. Balance
668. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
622. Balance
669. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
618. Exports
Income on investment
620. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
651. U.S. investment abroad
(Mil. dol.)
652. Foreign
investment in
the United States
(Mil. dol.)
1984
January
February
March
-17,872
89,907
107,779
-25,801
53,614
79,415
22,860
15,446
April
May
June
-25,394
89,053
114,447
-29,094
54,590
83,684
21,104
17,208
July
August
September
-25,i66
90,63i
115,797
-28,453
55,691
84,144
21,396
17,991
October
November
December
-25,874
90,522
116,396
-29,174
56,005
85,179
20,861
16,823
January
February
March
-22,832
88,040
110,872
-25,045
55,324
80,369
18,726
16,507
April
May
June
-25,959
89,350
115,309
-30,367
53,875
84,242
22,253
16,804
July
August
September
-24,454
90,234
114,688
-31,675
52,498
84,173
24,502
16,240
October
November
December
-29,451
90,873
120,324
-37,352
52,727
90,079
24,509
15,254
-31,015
91,593
122,608
-36,459
53,661
90,120
24,216
17,699
p-30,684
p91,158
pl21,842
p-36,023
p54,795
p90,818
p22,198
pl5,908
(NA)
(NA)
<NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1985
1986
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
x
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).
OCTOBER 1986
93
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F
I
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Year
and
month
47. United States,
index of industrial production
(1977-100)
721.OECD1
European countries, index of
industrial
production
(1977-100)
728. Japan,
index of industrial production
(1977 = 100)
725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production
(1977-100)
726. France,
index of industrial production
(1977-100)
722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
(1977 = 10.0)
727. Italy, index
of industrial
production
(1977=400)
723. Canada,
index of industrial production
(1977-100)
Revised2
1984
January .
February
March . .
118.5
119.3
119.9
108
108
107
131.5
135.4
134.2
106
108
105
105
104
105
105
104
103
106.0
104.0
108.0
110.8
107.8
110.3
April .
May .
June .
120.5
121.0
121.9
106
107
104
135.1
137.9
138.6
105
106
95
102
105
103
103
102
103
104.3
108.0
108.4
111.8
113.3
113.8
July . . . .
August . .
September
122.8
123.0
122.4
108
109
109
139.2
140.2
139.4
109
108
108
107
107
105
102
102
103
107.3
108.0
110.7
114.7
114.6
112.7
October . .
November
December
122.
122.
122.7
109
109
108
143.3
143.4
142.7
109
110
109
107
105
103
103
103
104
107.5
107.0
107.4
114.0
114.5
114.1
January
February
March
122.7
123.2
123.4
108
110
111
143.0
143.4
141.9
110
109
110
101
105
107
106
106
108
102.8
111.5
111.7
115.2
115.5
April
May
June
123.3
123.6
123.6
110
111
111
144.9
147.4
144.9
110
111
112
104
107
104
109
108
108
107.6
108.5
111.1
116.4
117.6
118.8
July
August
September . . ,
123.4
124.4
124.3
112
111
112
147,
145,
144,
116
112
112
108
108
105
108
108
109
107.3
105,8
110.6
118.8
118.7
120.0
October
November . . ,
December . . .
123.6
124.8
125.6
112
114
110
144.8
144.2
144.6
116
116
110
107
110
104
109
110
107
106.
110.
106.6
119.9
119.3
121.2
January
February
March
126.2
125.3
123.6
111
rll3
112
144,
145.
144,
113
113
112
104
105
105
108
110
110
108.0
111.0
114.5
120.3
120.3
117.1
April
May
June
124.7
124.2
124.2
114
rill
rll3
144.6
145.
145,
117
112
rll6
110
103
107
110
108
107
116.2
rlO8.5
113.7
120,
117.
116,
rl24.9
rl25.1
P125.3
(NA)
P144.7
(NA)
pU7
(NA)
(NA)
pllO
(NA)
pllO.7
(NA)
117.7
P116.6
1985
116.8
1986
July
August
September . . .
(NA)
October
November . . .
December , , .
See note on page 80,
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page i i i .
2
94
OCTOBER 1986
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Q j CONSUMER PRICES
United States
Year
and
month
320. Index ©
(1967 = 100)
Japan
320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
738. Index ©
France
West Germany
738c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
735. Index©
735c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(1967 = 100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967 = 100)
(Ann, rate,
percent)
736. Index ©
(1967=100)
United Kingdom
736c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
732. Index ©
(1967 = 100)
732c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1984
305.2
306.6
307.3
4.6
4.3
4.2
312.3
314.2
315.1
2.7
2.4
1.5
206.6
207.1
207.3
2.6
2.5
1.9
425.4
428.0
431.0
6.6
6.6
6.9
550.4
552.6
554.4
4.1
4.0
3.7
April
May
June
308.8
309.7
310.7
3.6
3.7
3.9
315.9
318.2
315.6
2.5
-0.1
0.8
207.7
207.8
208.6
1.6
1.3
0.9
433.6
436.2
438.4
6.8
,7.0
7.2
561.8
563.9
565.3
3.6
5.1
5.1
July
August
September
311.7
313.0
314.5
3.7
3.8
3.8
316.2
313.4
318.5
1.6
1.9
3.8
208.2
207.8
208.0
1.6
1.7
2.1
441.5
443.7
445.9
7.7
7.4
6.8
564.7
570.0
571.1
5.7
5.9
5.4
315.3
315.3
315.5
3.5
3.3
3.5
321.0
319.0
319.6
3.2
3.0
2.5
209.2
209.6
209.8
2.7
3.4
4.3
449.0
450.3
451.2
6.4
5.9
5.8
574.6
576.4
575.9
6.5
5.8
7.1
January
February
March
316.1
317.4
318.8
3.6
3.6
3.6
321.3
318.7
320.2
2.2
1.3
1.4
211.0
211.9
212.6
3.4
3.4
2.4
453.5
455.8
459.0
5.5
5.5
6.0
578.0
582.7
588.1
8.2
8.3
8.5
April . ,
May
June
320.1
321.3
322.3
3.6
3.4
2.8
321.9
323.3
323. 5
1.6
1.7
0.9
212.9
213.1
213.3
1.6
0.9
0.2
462.2
464.5
466.4
5.8
5.3
4.7
600.6
603.4
604.7
7.3
6.6
4.7
July
August
September
322.8
323.5
324.5
2.9
3.6
3.8
323.8
320.7
323.8
2.2
2.4
1.7
212.9
212.2
212.6
0.0
0.2
1.1
468.2
468.7
469.2
4.1
3.9
3.3
603.5
605.1
604.8
2.8
2.7
3.1
October
November
December
325.5
326.6
327.4
4.1
2.9
1,6
328.4
325.0
325.2
1.1
1.9
1.0
212.9
213.3
213.5
1.0
0.3
-0.2
470.6
471.5
472.1
2.7
1.7
1.4
605.8
607.9
608.7
4.0
3.6
3.6
January
February
March
328.4
327.5
326.0
0.3
-0.4
-0.2
325.8
324.4
323.5
-0.6
-0.2
-0.6
213.8
213.3
212.8
-0.5
-0.8
-1.3
472.6
471.7
472.9
1.6
1.1
1.3
610.0
612.2
613.0
3.2
2.8
2.0
April
May
June
325.3
326.3
327.9
-0.8
0.3
1.8
324.7
326.9
325.2
-0.6
0.4
(NA)
212.6
212.6
212.9
-1.8
-1.0
-0.7
474.7
475.6
477.0
1.3
2.3
(NA)
619.0
620.1
619.8
1.0
1.1
2.3
July
August
September
328.0
328.6
330.2
January
February
March
.. .
October
November
December
,
1985
1986
324.4
323.8
(NA)
211.9
211.4
211.7
477.5
478.0
(NA)
618.0
619.9
623.0
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
OCTOBER 1986
95
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Q
CONSUMER PRICES—Continued
Italy
Year
and
month
737. Index ©
(1967 = 100)
Q |
733c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks @
748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices ©
745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ©
746. France,
index of
stock
prices ©
742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ©
747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices ©
743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices @
(1967 = 100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967-100)
(1967=100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967-100)
(1967 = 100)
Canada
737c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
STOCK PRICES
733. Index ©
1984
January
February
March
678.3
685.8
690.6
11.1
10.9
10.9
329.2
331.1
331.9
4.3
4.7
3.4
181.0
171.1
171.3
687.6
699.6
736.1
185.3
182.3
178.4
275.9
263.4
261.1
457.2
457.2
485.3
125.3
128.7
128.5
279.0
273.4
269.2
April
May
June
695.4
699.6
703.8
10.0
9.4
8.1
332.7
333.3
334.7
3.1
2.3
3.0
171.4
170.3
166.6
776.0
744.6
711.2
177.9
178.0
175.8
285.4
277.1
272.3
495.0
489.6
468.7
124.9
122.5
119.6
262.5
251.9
251.0
July
August
September
705.9
708.0
713.0
6.8
6.4
6.8
336.6
336.6
336.9
2.5
3.4
4.2
164.3
178.9
180.7
701.3
728.8
738.6
167.2
172.0
178.3
256.7
274.3
287.0
447.5
478.6
497.0
121.4
128.7
127.6
241.8
269.6
270.4
October
November
December
720.1
724.4
729.5
7.2
7.7
8.9
337.5
339.7
339.9
4.3
5.2
4.4
179.3
180.9
178.9
760.5
774.7
804.7
185.2
185.1
187.4
287.9
286.0
285.2
503.7
525.9
127.4
130.5
130.5
265.9
267.6
?71 ?
January
February
March
736.8
744.2
749.4
10.7
11.1
10.4
341.3
343.5
344.3
5.3
4.5
4.0
186.7
196.8
195.2
839.5
851.9
900.4
195.1
202.0
213.4
294.3
307.9
317.8
578.1
585.1
592.3
147.2
164.1
165.0
293.2
293.2
295.2
April
May
June
756.1
760.6
764.4
10.0
9.4
8.5
345.7
346.5
348.3
3.4
2.9
3.6
196.5
201.1
205.5
880.3
890.6
915.0
212.5
218.7
234.2
328.9
336.4
337.2
592.0
607.0
591.3
164.4
188.7
199.0
297.8
309.2
306.5
July
August
September
766.7
768.2
771.3
7.5
6.0
7.0
349.5
350.1
350.5
3.1
3.4
4.7
209.4
204.8
200.2
941.6
915.9
915.0
234.8
237.4
253.2
321.9
316.8
312.3
568.4
597.0
605.7
212.9
229.8
246.4
314.0
318.6
297.4
October
November
December
780.6
786.1
791.6
6.2
6.2
6.2
351.7
353.1
354.7
5.2
5.0
4.6
202.5
214.8
225.5
930.9
910.7
933.9
273.6
293.2
294.9
300.4
338.9
356.3
617.4
652.0
644.5
251.1
263.9
285.2
302.2
322.8
327.8
795.6
801.2
804.4
5.8
6.8
5.5
356.3
357.7
358.5
4.5
4.8
2.9
226.5
238.6
252.7
936.5
964.8
1,052.8
327.1
320.8
329.6
383.6
409.9
450.2
647.8
690.0
755.0
303.8
343.9
430.2
321.2
322.7
344.3
806.8
809.9
813.1
5.5
5.7
4.8
359.1
360.7
361.3
3.0
3.5
3.7
258.9
259.4
266.8
1,116.7
1,144.6
1,203.9
345.8
318.7
313.8
517.4
525.9
P475.8
780.6
755.5
750.0
512.3
r580,0
485.1
347.9
352.8
348.6
261.3
266.5
259.2
1,262.7
1,354.5
rpl,355.4
293.2
316.3
rp320.2
P504.8
P524.3
rp522.7
rp739.7
rp734.9
rp751.1
483.2
rp541.3
rp535.5
331.7
342.2
336.6
P258.1
pi,272.4
P312.8
P513.9
P734.3
P529.6
P335.7
C C 1 <?
1985
1986
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
....
813.1
814.7
817.1
363.9
365.1
365.1
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
96
OCTOBER 1986
C.
Historical Data for Selected Series
Year
34.
1952
1953
1954......
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
.
1960
1961
1962
1963
.1964...;.
196 5
.
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
197 5
197 6 . . ' , . .
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
19S2. . . - . .
1983
1984
1985
1986
.
'
•49.
1952
1953
1954
.
1955
1956.
1957
'
1958
1959.
1960.
1961
1962
..
1963
1964
196 5
1966
1967, . . , . .
196 8
1969.
1970....,
1971
1972
197 3
1974
1975
1976
*
1977
1978
1979
:..
1980
1981
1982...'..
1983
1984
1985..
1986....;
50B.
II! Q
11 Q
IQ
IV Q
Annual
CORPORATE NET CASH FLOW IN CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
CHANGE
1952.....
1953... . .
1954
195 5
.
1956
.
1957
1958
1959....i
I96 0
.
1961., . . .
196 2
.
1963
1964
1965
19661
1967
1968... ,.
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
-197 5-*.vif. 1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
35.
AVERAGE
23.8
25.9
27.4
34.8
36.0
36.6
34.1
40.8*
' 40.0 .
40.6
47 .5 '
50.8
56.3
65.2
71.2
71.8 . .
76.2
7 8.4
76.4
88.1
103.7
125.2
139.6 .
144.5
1 6 8 . 8 '
199.4
231.4
263.5
262.2
278.1
265.4
318.6
350.4
376.0
24.2
22.8
23.1
25.3
26 . 9
26 . 8
27 . 0
23 . 0
25.2
, . 2 6 . . 7 . ,,
. ,27 . 8
,.
29.9
33.2
34.1
., , 3 5 . 4
36,5
36.1
36.6..
:.: "3 5 1 .0
36.4
37.3
36,8
36.9
35.3
31.7
.
31.7
. 3 4 . 5
38.4
40.4 '
43.3
" 39.8
'
39.5
42.1
*
40.1
• '
3 9 . 2 "•', . •
3,8.4,
38,2. ..
: 39.9
, •
41.3 .
.'43.2
46.8
46.6
;47.9
" 48.9
:
48.3
50.6
'
51.6
=- 5 2 . 8
56.0
•
55.7 ,
57.0
. 56.5 •
62.7
.
64.6
65.6
67.9
' 6 9 . 6
71.1
71.7
72.4
69.6
70.0
72.0
75.9
74.2
75.8
7 6.3
7 8.5
79.3
78.7
78.1
77.5
75.4
76.2
77.6
76.3
82.7
85.9
90.5
93.4
98.5
102.3
103.9
110.3
121.2
124.7
125.0
129.9
4
135.0
138.8
.
147.0
137.6
128.9
435.9
153.2
159.8
166.2'
" 167 . 6
16 9 . 9
171.4
' 185.6
198.1
206.1
207.7
211.9
229 .7
236 .0
248.1
252 .0
262 .1
27 1 . 2
268.6
273,0
247.8
259.9
268.2
281 . 4 '
272.3
278.4
280.5
254.7..
262.6
2.7 0-.7
273.4
287.9
312.6
333;7 .
340.0
345.8
349.3
348.9
357.8
361.0
370.8
382.8
389.4
629.4
682.6633.3
680.5
696.7
702.2
657,7
725.5
732.9
722.5
770.8
792.0
840.0
889.0
969.0
987.8
1028.3
1044.7
1034.2.
1035,8
1091,5
1176.8
1174.1
1110.0
1194.0
1245.0
1331.4
1347..5
1336.9
1380.2
1335.0
1358.0
1506.1
1526.0
,
•
IN GROSS NATIONAL
] 3. 2
; 4. &
, - ] 9. J
0 . i ••
-3. 1
. 2. 7
1 .2
9 .1
8. I
V
3 . )"•
4. 5
2 . i
•3 . 2
/ ;2. 5
2*. 3
6 .1
3 .)
4. J
i 4. 3
4. 3
2. ?
5 . +
2 j 11 .1
9. I
6 . +
0 .
2.
1.
8 .
7 .
9.
6.
>
>
i
3
j
•
-'
.-
PRODUCT
- 3 . 3
13.5
- 5 . 6
16.1
6.9
-0.9
8.1
30.6
-4.8
20.8
18.5
25.4
-16.7
29.5
5.7
•
13.4
:39.6
3.3
- 2 . 1 -0.2
49,5
7.0
7 .8
-26.9
12.5
46 . 7
95.4
- 3 .0
-76 .4
-10.9
9.5
71.7
42.4
20.6
638.0
679.3
:
638.1
693.2
695V5
706.6
681.1
7 11 . 2
730.8
736.4
780.7
803.4
852.0
907.9
974.7
999.7
1039.0
1051.7
,
1046.7 • •
1036.5
1108.3
1161.5
11,51.0
1136.4
1197.9 •
1282.7
1341.4
.
1359.7 '
1323.3
•
1400.3 .
1316.0
-•
1373.9
1510.3
1544.2
,
AVERAGE
659.6
671.6
652.4
702.7
698.6
680.7
702.3
723 .7
702.9
753.8 '
773.1
807 . 5
857.1
932.3
989.7
995.2
1025.3
1045.3
1011,2
1022-5
1126.5
1189.3
1141.3
1157.1
1199.6 ,
1275.4
1373.2
1344-6
1344.1
1363.0
1297 .9
1423.8
1509.5
1541,7
641 . 3
676.6
643.5
683.9
697.1
699.3
674.2
716.6
726.8
730.2
773.5
797.5
845.2
904.0
974.7
993.1
1024.8
1048.5
1030.0
1037.6
1093.8
117 5.0
1159.2
1125.0
:
.
1194.7
1256.2
1329.1
1354.6
1386.0
1319.1
1367.0
1503.1
153 3.2
IN .1982 DOLLARS
'
)
NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 1983.
Wear-to-year differences and percent changes are computed from annual data.
51.8
55.3
-19.1
78.7
30.7
25,5
-11 .9
89.9
36.2
43.4
90.7
73.9
100.0
114.3
120.7 ,
63.1
94.2
57.7
-7 .1
68.6
123.7
135.6
-14,8
-34.3
131.7
131.9
156.6
77.2
-5.3
61.7
-82.8
113.1
210 .8
95.3
.
II Q
IV Q
* in Q
100.5
109.8
101.3
132.6
135.0
130.1
110,3
136.7
139.8
127.5
154.5
157.5
180.6 .
,198.4
214.6
205 .8
210 .3
214.3
195.8
203.7
230.4
.274.3
287.8
232.9
278.2
290.9
308.2
336.2
334.8
312.7
258.7
287.3
347.2
360.1
GROSS NATIONAL
(ANNUAL RATE,
93.8
108.1
107 . 2 .
135.4
135,1'
127.4
109.3
145.6
133.2
132.8
154.0
164.7
179.2
203.7
215.7
205 .4
212 .0
210.7
194.6
208.1
237.0
278.4
285 .8
239.3
275.3
305.0
326.6
341.7
296.9
294.8
263.6
314.3
349.7
369.5
96.1
107.6
111.7
138.1
° 126 .4
127,0
117.8
133.2
130.1
137.2
157 . 4
167.8
182 . 5
205.3
216.6
209 .2
211 .0
207.0
196.9
216,8
238.7
275.6
288.0
265.1
274.6
311.8
328.8
346.5
303.6
294.2
269.1
335.9
348.7
381 .6
1369.2
1431.4
1406,8
1469.6 '
1515.7,
1553.3
1506.1
1606.4
1671.6
1671.3
1777 . 9
1834.6
1948.7
2036.9
2190.1
2241 . 8 2327.3
2416.5
2408/6
2478.6
2545.6
2734.0
2747.4
2642.7
2804.4
2896.0
3020.5
3181.7
1365.9
1444.9
1401 .2
1485.7
1522.6
1552.4
1514.2
1637.0
1666.8
1692.1
1796.4
I860.0
1965.4
2066.4
2195.8
2255,2
2366.9
2419.8
2406.5
2478.4
2595.1
2741.0
2755.2
2669.6
2816.9
2942.7
3115.9
3178.7
1378. I
1438. I
1418. )
1505. )
1523. 1
1561. >
1 5 5 0 . ()
1629. >
1 6 6 8 . 1t
1716.
1813.
1892. >
1985.,
2 0 9 9 . .1
2 2 1 8 . .\
2287."
2 3 8 5 . .1
2433..
2 4 3 5 . i)
2491.
2622.
2738. J
2719.
2714.
2828. >
3 0 0 1 . i\
3142.f
3207 J»
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
3261.1
3170.4
3186.6
3444.7
3547.0
3250.2
3179.9
3258.3
3487.1
3567.6
3 2 6 4 . (>
3154. >
3 3 0 6 . ^t
3 5 0 7 . ^i
3603,(
PERCENT CHANGE IN GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1952
1953
1954
1955.....
1956
1957
1958
1959.
1960
.....
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
196 9
1970
1971
197 2
1973
1974
197 5
•. ••• - 1976
1977
1978
1979
1980. . . . .
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
3.9
7.2
-5.4
8.9
-0.8
3.3
-7.9
'5:1
7.0
4.2
5.3
5.5
9.2
9.0
8.2
2,3,
4.7
5.7
-2.4
11.2
9.1
9.7
• -2.2
-7.6
7.7
5.6
3.6
0.0
4.1
8.0
-5.9
3.5
9.8
3,1
-1.0
3.8
- 1 . 6
4.4
1.8
-0.2
2,2
7.8
- 1 . 1
5.1
4.2
5.7
3.5
5.9
1.0
2.4
7.0
0.5
-0.3
0.0
8.0
1.0
1.1
4,1
1.8
6.6
13.2
- 0 . 4
- 9 . 1
- 1 , 3
1.2
9.3
5.0
2.3
•
3.6
-1.9
4.9
5.4
0.3
2.4
9.8
- 1 . 8
0.4
5.8
3.8
7.2
4.1
6.5
4.2
5.9
3.1
2,2
5.0
2.1
.4.2
- 0 . 4
- 5 . 1
7.0
1.7
8.3
3.5
3 .7
0.3
1.8
-3.2
6.0
2.3
4.1
Annual
AVERAGE
103.5
93.0
118.7
140.1
12 9 , 5
120.8
130.3
131.9
127.8
142.9
160,0
170.7
180,6
211.0
215.5
218 .3
214 .2
203.6
191.5
221.1
251 .9
282.9
258.0
272.0
272.5
307 .3
338.6
337.3
306.2
289.3
269.9
342.3
357.1
388.1
PRODUCT IN 1 9 8 2 DOLLARS
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1952
1953
1954.....
1955
1956.. . . .
1957
1958
1959
1960.
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968.'. .'. .
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973.....
1974
1975.
1976
1977
1978
1979
50C.
12.3
28.(
r6.7
- U . <
16.8
20.{
19.8
1 3 . .
1,-1 •
16.
9.1
- 2 4 .
35.8
36.
-7 .5
13.
- 1 .6
-14 .
24.2
38,
16.7
-3.C
32.5
13.
19.8
8..
32.9
4 8 , :
22.5 •
10. <
3 2.5
, . 12.<
18.4
- 2 . ,
13.4
- 9 . "
29.3
-22.C
12.7 '
- 0 .
27 . 0
49,5
r2.7
24..
- 3 5 . 9
-23.<
45.3--» • •
3 7 °A
11.7
2 8 . ,i
59.1
- 7 ."
26.7
39.(
28.7
-6 .
2.1
40 .
14.4
-45.<
-25.4
4.(
48.1
5 8 . '
20.3
1 3 .C
36.2
18.:
; 1Q
CORPORATE NET CASH FLOW IN 1982 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959.
1960
1961
1962
1963.. . . .
196 4
1965
,
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976.....
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986.....
50.
VALUE OF GOODS OUTPUT IN 1982 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOL1A&S)
638.2
672.8
650.1
659.1
697.4
* 707 .6
655.9
' 706 . 1
740.8
708.2'
769.2
787.0
'831.6
886.7
965.4
989.6
1006.6
1052.2
1027.7
1055.3
1048.9
1172.3
1170.3
10 9 6 . 4
1187.2
1221.9
1270.5
1366.7
1372.4
1400.6
1327.7
1312.3
1486.3
1521.1-
Year ..
98.5
104.6
109.7
136.5
131.5
126.3
116.9
136.8
132.7
135.1
156,5
165.2
180.7
204.6
215.6
209.7
211.9
208.9
194.7
212.4
239.5
277 .8
279.9
252,3
275.2
303.7
325.5
340.4
310.4
297.8
265.4
319.9
350.7
374.9
AVERAGE
1406.8
1426.6
1438.8
1518.7
1540.6
1537.3
1586.7
1643.4
1654.1
1754.9
1810.1
1906.1
1993.7
2147.6
2229.2
2300.6
2383.0
2423,5
2413.8
2491.0
2671.3
2762.8
2695.4
2 7 5 2 .7
2856.8
2994.1
3181.6
3201.3
3199.2
3219.0
3159.3
3365.1
3520,4
3622.3
IN 1 9 8 2
8.6
- 3 . 2
6.0
3.6
4.5
- 6 . 1
9.8
3.5
- 3 . 4
9.3
-0.7
2.9
1.7
9.5
2.0
2.3
- 0 . 4
- 1 . 6
- 3 . 6
0.0
7.7
3 .6
- 3 . 5
5.7
4.0
-1 .0
5.1
-0,8
5.2
- 5 . 5
0.6
7.3
1.5
2.1
1380 . 0
1435.3
1416.2
1494.9
1525.6
1551.1
153 9.2
1629.1
1665.3
1708.7
1799.4
1873.3
1973.3
2087.6
2208.3
2271.4'
2365.6
2423.3
2416.2
2484.8
2608.5
2744.1
2729.3
2695.0
2826.7
2958.6
3115.2
3192.4
3187.1
3248.8
3166.0
3279.1
3489.9
3585.2
PERCENT
CHANGE1
3,9
4 .0
-1.3
5.6
2.1
1.7
-0.8
5.8
2.2
2.6
5.3
4.1
5.3
5.8
5.8
2.9
4.1
2 .4
-0.3
2 ;s
5.0
5.2
-0.5
-1.3
4.9
4.7
5.3
2.5
-0.2
1.9
-2.5
3,6
6.4
2.7
(OCTOBER 1986)
97
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
55.
IQ
II Q
IV Q
III Q
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES,
Year
Annual
IQ
64.
AUTOMOBILES
AVERAGE
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
196 0
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
9.2
12.3
11 . 1
14.2
14.0
15.4
12.3
15.3
16.4
13.6
17.0
19.8
21.6
25.5
26.8
22.7
27.9
30.5
27.6
32.6
35.9
43.8
33.8
34.3
47 .9
55.9
55.8
65.8
68.1
72.7
70.0
76.8
102.8
110.2
9.5
12.2
11.6
16,0
13.2
15.0
12.0
16.4
16.9
14.2
17.9
20.5
21.8
24.7
23.9
25.3
28.4
29.8
28.8
33.5
37.1
42.8
34.2
34,3
48.7
56.0
64.5
61.7
52.2
65.7
70.2
86.6
106.7
112.8
7.5
12.0
10.8
16.9
12.9
14.1
11 .9
17.1
17.1
14.8
17.7
20.6
22.9
25.3
24.6
24.9
30,4
30.3
28.9
34.0
38.3
40.7
37.6
40,1
49.2
57.3
63.7
65.8
60.8
72.8
72.6
90.1
105.0
126.4
TIC PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS, NONFINANCIAL CORP.
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
196 7
1966
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
86,
0.182
0.189
0.196
0.189
0.199
0.207
0.216
0.213
0.218
0.222
0.220
0.221
0.218
0.221
0.225
0 .239
0.247
0.260
0.282
0.289
0.304
0.311
0.343
0.379
0.403
0.432
0.463
0.501
0.558
0.612
0.666
0.682
0.683
0 .704
0.184
0.191
0.195
0.191
0.201
0.209
0.215
0.212
0,221
0.221
0.222
0.218
0.220
0.221
0.229
0 .239
0.249
0.265
0.284
0.295
0.305
0,319
0.356
0,391
0.410
0.436
0.466
0.515
0.578
0.625
0.672
0.676
0.684
0 .708
10.8
11.5
11.8
15.7
14.1
14.4
12.7
14.8
15.9
16.3
19.1
21.0
20.5
25.3
24.5
24.5
29.9
29.8
23.1
35.4
40.6
36,6
32.0
42.5
51.3
57.4
64.9
62.9
64.2
62.8
79.1
97.4
108.4
111.6
(DOLLARS)
0.186
0.193
0.193
0.193
0.203
0.210
0.215
0.218
0.221
0.222
0.221
0.218
0.221
0.222
0.232
0 .241
0.252
0.270
0.286
0.298
0.307
0.325
0.372
0.391
0.418
0.438
0,477
0.530
0.587
0.636
0.679
0.676
0.694
0 .705
GROSS PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN
0.189
0.196
0.193
0,196
0.206
0.213
0.213
0.216
0.222
0.219
0.221
0.219
0.223
0.222
0.235
0.242
0.256
0.276
0.291
0.301
0.308
0.334
0.382
0.399
0.427
0.451
0.486
0.546
0.603
0.653
0,685
0.680
0.699
0.716
9.3
12.0
11.3
15.7
13.5
14.7
12.2
15.9
16,6
14.7
17.9
20.5
21.7
25.2
25.0
24.4
29.1
30.1
27 .1
33.9
38.0
40.9
34.4
37.8
49.3
56.6
62.2
64.1
61 .3
68.5
73.0
87.7
105.7
115.3
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
87.
1982
66.9
67.8
68.9
66.9
68.3
69.0
69.8
68.5
69.2
70.3
69.0
69.3
68.7
68,4
68.1
70.0
70.8
71.6
74.4
73.6
73.3
72.3
73.1
74.8
72.8
73.3
73.3
72.4
73.6
73.7
75.7
75.4
72.7
73.4
.
IV Q
Hi Q
67.4
68.4
68.7
67,1
68.6
69.0
69.6
68.1
69.9
69.7
69.4
6!).O
61),9
6«.2
68.8
70.1
70.7
72.0
74.1
73.4
73.6
72.6
74.1
74.1
73.3
72.7
72,0
72O6
75.0
74,1
75,5
74.3
72.9
73.5
67.3
68.6
68.1
67,3
68.8
69.0
69.2
69.1
70.0
69.5
69.3
69.0
69.0
68.3
69.4
70.2
71.1
72.7
74.1
73.4
72.9
72.5
74.3
72.8
73.6
72.1
72.1
72.8
74.7
73.6
75.9
74.3
73 .2
73.4
CCADJ TO TOTAL CORPORATE DOMESTIC INCOME
AVERAGE
0.185
0.192
0.194
0.192
0.203
0.210
0.215
0.215
0.221
0.221
0.221
0 .219
0.220
0.222
0 .230
0 .240
0.251
0.268
0.286
0.295
0.306
0,322
0.363
0,390
0 .414
0.439
0.473
0.523
0.581
0.632
0.676
0 .679
0.690
0.708
II Q
COMPENSATION OF EMPLOYEES AS A PERCENT
OF NATIONAL INCOME
(PERCENT)
10.8
10.1
9.6
12.2
11.0
10.1
8.7
11.1
10.5
9.2
11.7
11.6
12.8
13.5
13.7
12.1
10.6
9.8
6.8
7.9
8.6
8.5
5.8
5.7
8.3
7.6
7.9
7.5
4.4
5.4
4.0
5.5
7.3
7.9
10.1
9.4
10,0
12.3
10.5
10.0
8.8
11.6
9.8
10.1
11.3
11.9
12.6
13.6
13.0
11.9
10.9
9.2
7.4
7.8
8.4
7.5
5.1
6.9
7.7
8.8
8.7
6.8
4.6
5.4
3,9
6.5
7.8
8.2
9 . t1
9.
10..
12.(
1 0 . '»
10.
9 . '*
10.(
10.(
10.
11 .
11.<>
1 2 . .>
13. >
12. )
1 1 . (J
10.f
8.
7.C)
8. I
8. 1
7 . '•
3.Ji
7. 1
7. )
9. >
8. >
6. L
4. I
5. >
4. L
6. )
7. )
8 . iI
AVERAGE
67 .7
69.7
67,7
67.4
69.1
69.6
68.5
69.3
70.3
69.0
69.1
69.0
69.3
68.3
69.6
70.3
71.4
73.5
74.3
73.2
72.3
72.2
74.7
72.8
73.8
72.9
71,9
73.5
74.2
74.5
75.8
73.4
73.3
73.7
(PERCENT)
10.3
8.3
11.0
11.7
9.9
9.6
10.2
10 ,6
9,5
10.4
11 .7
11.8
12.2
13 .6
12.7
11.8
10.3
7.6
6.6
8.4
8.7
7,2
4.4
7.8
7.4
8.7
8.2
5.3
4.4
5.1
3.9
7.5
7.9
7.9
133.2
138.8
137.7
139.8
158.8
161.1
149.9
147.9
161.1
155.3
165.5
168.9
186.5
214.7
247.9
244.5
255.7
266.0
265.9
257.7
267.9
304.5
324.4
285.5
284.9
311.5
339.5
383.7
397.7
385.7
387.0
341.6
394.4
442.7
1 3 4 . ()
1 3 9 . ()
1 3 6 . (J
148. I
160. >
160.
142.<>
152,"
1 6 1 . **
1 5 7 . ()
171,:
174,:
192,:
224.J
251.3
244.
250,C
267.(
264.
258.(
272.
316.
324.
277.(
286.J
320.^
363.(
384.<
372.«
395.:
369..
348. i
419.463.C
123.3
141.4
138.7
155.2
162.1
163.6
139.2
156.9
157 . 7
158.0
173.4
179.4
197.9
231.1
252.9
243.4
252.1
273.8
266.9
257.6
275.9
322.6
316.0
279.6
292.8
327.8
369.4
394.2
370.4
402.7
358.0
363.9
427.1
463.1
NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 1983.
132.0
141.0
137.0
160.9
160.3
159.6
143.4
156.9
157.6
162.6
170.5
183.9
202.9
240.6
249.7
247.8
260.4
271.1
259.0
259.6
292.2
325.5
306.2
282.1
297.9
336.4
376.0
394.8
375.8
397.0
352.3
390.4
447.6
476.9
130.
140 .
137. j
151.()
160 J
161.
143.
153.(
159.;
158.;
no.;
176. (
194.' >
227. (
250,^
245.C
254.
269.
264.(
258.'
277,(
317..
317. i
281.
2 9O.(
f
324.C
362.
389.^
379.:
395.:
366."
361.:
422.;
461 .*
67.3
66.6
68.4
67.2
68.7
69.2
69.3
68.8
69.8
69.6
69.2
69.1
69.0
68.3
69.0
70.2
71.0
72.4
74.2
73.4
73.0
72.4
74.0
73.6
73.4
72.8
72.3
72.8
74.4
74.0
75.7
74.4
73 .0
73.5
AVERAGE
10.2
9.2
10 . 2
12.0
10.4
10 .0
9.3
11 .0
10.0
10.0
11.5
11.8
12.5
13.6
13.0
11.9
10.6
8.8
7.0
8,1
8.6
7.6
4.8
7,0
7.8
8.6
8.3
6.4
4.4
5.4
4.0
6.6
7.6
8.2
GROSS PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN 1982
AVERAGE
AVERAGE
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
196 3
1964
1965
1966
196 7
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
197 8
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Annual
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
55.9
61.1
64.5
66.9
73.7
75.3
73.7
69.7
75.8
78.4
78.6
78,5
83.9
95.0
108.8
106.2
109.1
109.5
111.9
109.1
108.5
113.6
119.0
105.0
103.8
104.4
111 .3
122.7
140.2
140.7
151 .0
128.2
133.5
149.9
56.6
62.2
65.1
68.4
76.0
75.3
70.8
71.9
74.8
77.4
81,6
81.8
87.6
102.5
107.5
104.5
107 .6
111.3
111.3
107 .5
109.1
116.9
118.9
101.4
103.7
108.2
119.9
128.1
134.9
149.3
144.7
123.3
141.3
154.1
57,3
62.5
65.0
70.4
76.3
75.3
68.5
73.5
75.4
77 .6
83.7
82.5
89.5
102.2
109.8
105.5
106.5
115.8
111.1
107.3
108.8
120.2
112.2
102.4
105.0
111.0
122.4
133.0
133.5
153.0
139.3
125.8
142.9
152.3
59.5
63.7
64.8
71 .8
76.0
75.0
69 .4
72.7
78.6
77 . 3
81.4
83,4
90,8
107.7
106,0
105,3
108.9
114.9
110.2
105.5
111.7
120.4
110.5
102.3
105.2
109.8
123.8
138.7
136.2
152.2
138.3
131.6
147.5
152,4
57.3
62.3
64.9
69.4
75.5
75.2
70.6
71 . 9
76.1
77 .7
81.3
81.6
87.9
10 1 . 8
10 8 . 0
10 5 . 4
1 08 .0
1 12.9
1 11.1
1 07 .3
10 9 . 5
1 17 ,7
115.2
10 2 . 8
10 4 . 4
10 8 . 3
1 19.3
30.6
36.2
48.8
43.3
27 .2
41 .3
52 .2
(OCTOBER 1986)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
IV Q
IQ
8 8 . GROSS PRIVATE NONRESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT IN
DOLLARS,' PRODUCERS' DURABLE EQUIP.
(ANN. RATE, B I L .
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
196 5
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973.. . . .
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
77.3
77 .7
73.1
72 .9
85 .1
85.7
76.2
78.2
85.3
76.9
86 .9
90.4
102 .7
119.8
139.1
138.3
146.6
156.6
154.0
148.6
159.3
191.0
205.5
180.5
181 .1
207 .2
228.2
260.9
257.5
245.0
235.9
213.4
260.9
292.8
77.4
76.8
71,6
79.8
84.4
84.9
72.1
80.8
86.6
79.6
89.7
92 .4
104.7
121 .5
143.8
139.8
142 .4
156.6
153.0
151.0
163.1
199.8
205.8
176 .2
183.1
243 .8
256.8
238.0
246 .0
224.9
225.5
278.2
308.9
66.0
78.9
73.7
84.8
85.8
70.7
83.5
82.3
80.4
89.7
96.9
108.4
129.0
143.1
138.0
145,6
158.0
155.8
150.3
167.0
202.4
203.8
177.2
187.9
216.8
247.1
261 .2
236.9
249.7
218.7
238.1
284.2
310 .9
72.5
77.4
72.2
89.1
84.3
84.6
74.0
84.1
79.0
85.3
89.1
100.5
112.2
133.0
143.7
142.5
151.5
156.2
148.8
154.1
180.5
205.1
195.7
179.8
192.7
226.6
252.1
256.2
239.6
244.8
214.1
258.8
300.1
324.5
110. FUNDS RAISED BY PRIVATE NONFINANCIAL BORROWERS
IK CREDIT MARKETS 1
(ANNUAL RATE, MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
.
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977. .;. .
1978
197 9
1980.. ...
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
23 ,132
24,960
17 ,796
32,764
36 ,548
31,812
26 ,928
40,260
41 ,908
30 ,760
43,192
48,172
55,108
74,068
77,568
65,252
71,880
97 ,860
80,848
104,592
137 ,276
205,368
180,156
88,152
177,136
235,708
308,592
353,512
351,528
299,272
254,904
276,596
525,408
489,660
24,768
21 ,300
19,828
35 ,884
32,196
31,096
25,004
46 ,764
37,060
29,572
48,164
57,332
59,500
6 5,7 44
76,172
60,736
75 ,588
101 ,024
86,184
113,272
132,176
178,480
203,456
93,412
178,172
257,112
331,752
373,900
178,436
349,000
26 7,740
340,956
641,064
552,040
26,708
21,956
27,212
39,504
32,920
30,236
28,724
48,572
37,684
42,888
47,368
55,500
64,752
71,176
57,352
70,160
88,400
93,988
86,708
132,084
138,340
182,820
175,864
121,944
190 ,192
297,984
335,120
419,164
290,288
340,164
251 ,244
393,540
455,468
5 80,3 80
28,236
15,6 84
29,304
40,104
30,852
27,000
41,748
41,568
35,984
49,296
51,028
61,120
66,188
68,736
47", 27 2
78,568
105,220
88,540
82,328
116,312
181,080
166 ,744
146,168
157,648
228,828
303,892
394,228
307,352
337,768
259,348
194,816
507,384
632,420
928,380
CHANGE IN GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1952.
1953 .
1954.
1955.
1956 .
1957,
1958.
1959.
1960 .
1961 .
1962 .
1963.
1964.
1965 .
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972 .
1973 .
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977 .
1978.
1979.
1980 .
1981 .
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
3 .1
6.7
-0.3
12.8
2.6
9.0
-7.0
10.9
13 .7
4 .4
12
9.3
14.8
22 .1
22.8
8.8
25.8
23.9
10.7
44.3
39.2
48 .1
12.9
7.8
52.7
55.4
49.0
52.9
81.5
130,2
-1.8
53.3
125.1
63.7
0.5
3.4
0.2
8.3
5.6
2.1
4.0
12.7
-1 .6
10.5
7.8
8.2
8 .7
12 .3
9.8
6,2
23.8
14.3
14.7
19.1
30 .7
31.3
32.9
38.9
30 .9
69.8
118.9
54.0
-0.8
38.9
46.9
101 .6
72.9
55.7
5.9
-0.8
4.7
8.2
4,8
0.2
3 .2
10.6
7,0
12.8
10.4
15.7
13.1
17,0
16.9
19.8
19.0
19.6
26.7
26,5
30.0
63.9
32.9
62.7
59.2
71.6
61.8
81.9
19.9
76.5
55.9
65.5
Annual
Year
73.3
77.7
72,7
81.7
84.9
85.9
73.3
1952..
1953..
1954, .
1955 . .
1956..
1957. .
1958. .
1959. .
I960..
1961..
1962. .
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966 . .
1967.,
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1976 . .
1977. .
1978. .
1979. .
1980 . .
1981..
1982..
1983..
1984..
1985..
1986..
1982
DOL.)
12.4
-5.1
8.4
6.4
8.4
-5.6
13.2
4.4
-4.7
13.0
3.6
9.0
4.6
21.3
13.2
14.2
13.8
8.1
3.0
13.4
39.6
43.9
27.7
50.8
49.0
30.8
78.1
45.4
114.6
14.8
33.1
101 .9
45.9
57.2
1 Q
DOLLARS
83.3
80,5
88.9
95,1
107 .0
125.8
142.4
139.6
146 .5
156.8
152.9
151 .0
167.5
199.6
202.7
178.4
186.2
215.7
242.8
258.8
243.0
246.4
223.4
233.9
280.9
309.2
86 ,1
81 .1
76.2
99.2
100 .9
90.2
100.2
106 .1
121.3
115.0
113.3
87.6
112.9
119.4
108.2
126 .1
163.6
177.1
141.4
106 .9
135.4
156.3
172.9
174.6
154,9
139.3
101 .2
127 .8
169,7
172.4
1952 . .
1953..
1954. .
1955..
1956. .
1957 . .
1958. .
1959. .
1960. .
1961 . .
1962..
1963..
196 4 . .
1965. .
1966..
1967 . .
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974,.
197 5 . ,
1976..
1977 . .
1978..
1979..
1980..
1981..
1982..
1983..
1984 . .
1985..
1986..
345.2
370 .7
367.9
394.0
419,5
447 . 3
443.9
485.1
516 . 1
517 .4
564.4
592 .1
636.9
682.7
754.8
799 .7
862.9
941 .3
994.2
107 5 .2
1166.5
1311 .6
1426.2
1524.6
1730.9
1899.1
2111 .4
2420 .5
2673.0
2978.8
3112 .6
3265.8
3670.9
3 90 9.3
70.3
72.6
82.0
76.1
102.8
92 .7
90.5
103.1
114,0
116.0
116 .4
105.8
99.3
115.8
118.3
102 .1
139.3
164 .5
165,3
134.4
110.8
139.1
172.7
179.8
172.4
124.1
134.1
103 .4
147.4
173.2
175.1
81.5
100.9
89.8
95.4
102.9
116.0
112.9
113.3
102.3
104.3
116.8
116.5
107 .6
147.7
165.6
158.7
130.6
118.2
136.3
345.7
374.1
368.1
0 2.3
25.1
49 .4
47.9
97.8
514.5
527.9
572.2
600.3
645.6
695.0
764 .6
805.9
886.7
955.6
1008.9
1094.3
1197.2
1342.9
1459.1
1563.5
1761 .8
1968.9
2230.3
2474.5
2672.2
3017 .7
3159.5
3367 .4
3 7 43.8
3965.0
92.7
83.7
78.3
82.4
78.6
90.
98.
89.9
98.4
102.7
119.4
111 .0
111.9
91.4
111.3
119.3
107.5
119.2
152.2
172.8
152.5
114.4
123.6
152
169
178
165
142
110
115
159
168,3
181.5
180.8
170.6
126.8
122.3
100.1
161.9
171.2
180.0
351.6
373.3
372.8
410,5
429.9
456.5
461.0
498.0
517.7
538.5
579.2
613.1
656.0
710.7
777.7
822 .9
903.6
975.4
1027 .9
1113.9
1223.9
1369.4
1489.1
1627.4
1794.7
2031.6
2289.5
2546.1
2734.0
3099,6
317 9.4
3443.9
3799.7
4030.5
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961 .
1962 .
1963.
1964.
1965 .
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972,
1973 .
1974 .
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981 .
1982 .
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
3.6
7 .6
-0.3
14.1
2.6
8.5
-6 .1
9 .5
11.4
3 .5
9.7
6.5
9 .9
14.1
13.1
4.5
12.9
10 .8
4.4
18.3
14.7
16.1
3 .7
2 .1
13.2
12.6
9.8
9.2
13.2
19.6
-0 .2
6.8
14.9
6.8
0.6
3.7
0.3
7.0
-0 .
5.
8.
4,
6.
12,
0.
2.5
s!o
5.3
6.2
13.0
8.2
5.8
8.8
6.6
9.3
7.0
8.7
7.8
8.5
7.7
7.4
9.2
8.1
8.5
17.4
7.7
13.4
11.0
12 .1
9.6
11 .3
2.5
9.4
6.1
6.8
71.2
73.8
79.8
92.4
84.4
79,3
81 .0
100 .2
93.3
93.6
102 .2
113.9
115.3
114.2
103.2
100.6
116.2 •
115,4
109.3
141,3
166.6
163.4
130.2
114.9
140 .8
168,1
178.0
170.8
137 .0
126.5
105.1
149.3
170.6
177.2
AVERAGE
364.0
368.2
381.2
416.9
438,3
450.9
474.2
502.4
513.0
551.5
582.8
622.1
660.6
732.0
7 90.9
837.1
917.4
983.5
1030.9
1127.3
1263.5
1413.3
1516.8
1678.2
1843.7
2062.4
2367.6
2591.5
2848.6
3114.4
3212.5
3545.8
3845.6
4087.7
351 .6
371.6
372.5
40 5,9
428.2
451.0
456.8
495.8
515.3
533,8
574.6
606.9
649.8
705 .1
772.0
816 .4
892 .7
963.9
1015.5
1102.7
1212 .8
1359.3
1472.8
1598.4
1782.8
1990.5
2249.7
2508.2
2732.0
3052.6
3166.0
3405.7
3765.0
3998.1
PERCENT
CHANGE 2
200C. PERCENT CHANGE IN GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN
NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain revisions beginning with 1983.
'This series contains revisions beginning with 1952. 2Year-to-year differeences and percent changes are computed from annual data.
73.9
71.9
DIFFERENCE 2
18.2
20.0
0.9
33.4
22.3
22.8
5.8
39.0
19.5
18.5
40.8
32.3
42.9
55.3
66.9
44.4
76.3
71.2
51.6
87.2
110.1
146.5
113.5
125.6
184.4
207 .7
259.2
258.5
223.8
320.6
113.4
239 .7
359.3
223.1
Annual
BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
70.9
75.4
77.4
94.8
85.5
79.2
200. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
DOLLARS)
AVERAGE
25,711
20,975
23,535
37,064
33,129
30,036
30,601
44,291
38,159
38,129
47,438
55,531
61,387
69,931
64,591
68,679
85,272
95,353
84,017
116,565
147,218
183,353
176,411
115,289
193,582
273,674
342,423
363,482
289,505
311 ,946
242,176
379,619
563,590
637,615
(ANNUAL RATE,
69.7
75.1
IV Q
II Q
14.9
-5.4
9 .4
6.3
8.0
-4.8
12.0
3.6
-3.6
10.0
2.5
6.0
2.8
12.5
7.0
7.1
6.3
3,4
1.2
4.9
13.6
13.5
7.7
13.1
11 .4
6.2
14.4
7.3
17.9
1.9
4 .2
12.4
5.5
5.7
0 .2
9.0
3,9
3.6
7.1
8.5
9.5
5 .8
9.3
8.0
5.4
8.6
10 .0
12.1
8.3
8.5
11 .5
11.7
13.0
11.5
8.9
11.7
3.7
7.6
10.5
6 .2
(OCTOBER 198S)
99
C.
Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
IQ
HQ
ill Q
IV Q
1352 .2
1423.1
1413,9
1457 .9
1498 ,5
1546 . 8
1521.3
1591,8
1644.9
1678.5
1755.9
1817 .7
1931.8
2004 .6
2154 ,3
2205.2
2308 .1
23 8 9 . 9
2402 .8
2447 .0
2537 , 5
2700.0
2712 .1
2664.4
2780.0
2871.8
2988.9
3157 .7
3 229 .3
3233.8
3194 .4
3228.9
3359.6
3523 .9
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1 957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
196 5
1966
1967
1968
196 9
197 0
1971
197 2
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1 97 9
1980
1981
1 982
1983
1 934
1 985
1986
220.
1370.9
1434 ,2
1408 .9
1467.9
1510 . 3
1546 . 4
1527 . 1
1609 .4
1659.5
1690.4
1779.7
1841 .4
1950 . 1
2042.5
2162.0
2237.1
2335 . 5
2397 .0
2396.5
2453 .2
256 9 .6
2701.4
2717.8
2699.9
2787.9
2916.8
3074.8
3145,8
3154.8
3228.4
3185 .3
3 26 7 . 6
3430,0
3 550 .2
Year
Annual
217.
213.
FINAL SALES IN 1982 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE , BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
AVERAGE
1391.9
1438.1
143 7.2
1499.4
1529 .5
1545 .1
1573 .8
16 2 4 . 1
1668.0
1737.5
1802.6
1895.4
1976 .8
2128,3
2185,1
2271.3
2372 .5
2 401.6
2412 .7
2489 .9
2650 .3
27 0 6 , 5
2653.9
2748.3
2845.2
2972.4
3140.3
3208 .9
3 203 .8
1365.1
1434.8
1423.8
1489.1
1512 .5
1554 .2
1 548 .5
16 25 . 0
1657.6
1699.2
1794.7
1872.3
197 1.4
2073.9
2184 . 4
2256.6
2362 .1
2403 .9
2419 .7
2470.5
2589 .7
2708.2
2700 . 4
2718.3
2805.0
2957 .1
3109.5
3196.5
3188.6
3228 .9
3164.0
3307.4
3446 .8
3603 .1
3218.6
3338.1
3486 .4
3627 .5
1370.0
143 2 .5
1421,0
147 8 , 6
1512 .7
1548 . 1
1542 ,6
1612.6
1657.5
1701.4
1783.3
1856.7
1957 .6
2062.4
217 1 . 5
2242.6
2 3 44.6
2398 . 1
2407 .9
246 5 . 2
2586 . 8
2704,1
2696.0
2707.8
2804.6
2929.5
3078.4
317 7 . 4
3194.0
3225^0
3190 . 5
3285.5
3430.7
3576 .2
1952
1953
1 954
1955
1 956
195 7
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
...
827 .8
870 .4
885 .9
918.2
978.3
1004 .6
1008 .8
1054.7
1087 .3
1100.8
1158.4
1190 .9
1253 ,7
1327 ,1
1414 ,3
1474.0
1530.5
1566 .4
1638 .0
1708.1
1750.9
1893 . 2
1907 ,2
1873 .1
1983.1
2026,9
2128 .2
2216 .6
2225.6
2242 .9
2245.7
2288.4
2446.9
2495.7
835 .7
883.2
881 . 6
936.7
985 .6
1011 .4
1016.3
1071.9
1117 .
1167.
1198 . 1287 ,"
1346 ,
1422 ..
1487.
1554.
1 584 .
1666 .3
1731 .<
1767. (
190 7 . (
1888.:
1965 .'
1992 .i
2049.6
2162.7
2206.6
2185.7
2235.0
2260.9
2311.1
2460.3
2550.8
853 .7
881.5
895.7
952 .8
990.6
1016,8
1038.1
1066.6
1093 .0
1127 .4
1174.7
1210.9
1304 . 1
1383.2
1437 . 4
1500.1
1555.1
1617.5
1686 .2
1734.2
1801.5
1922.2
1898 .6
1935 .0
2005.9
2086.9
2176 .4
2213 .7
2207.2
2262 .9
2263 .4
2335.4
2481 .9
2524.7
100
1
AVERAGE
860 .0
885 . 1
912.9
970.1
1003 ,0
1015.5
1052,1
1075.8
1146 .8
1179.8
1229.4
1318.6
1405 .8
1451,1
1510.7
1565.1
1 630 .6
1682 .1
1739.6
1869.4
1942 .1 i
1892 .4
1 953 . i
2022 .2
2102.8
2202 .0
2213 .7
2238.8
2253.7
2276.1
2392.7
2493.1
2540.7
NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 1983.
291.6
306.6
306.3
336 . 3
356.3
372.8
375.0
409 ,2
424.9
439 .0
473 . 3
500 .3
537.6
585 .2
642 .0
677.7
739.1
798.1
832.6
8 98.1
994 . 1
1122,7
1203.5
1289.1
1441.4
1617.8
1838.2
2047.3
2203 .5
2443.5
2518.4
2719.5
303 2 .0
3222 .3
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969.... .
1970
197 1
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
197 9 . . . .
1 980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986.....
227.
DISPOSABLE PERS ONAL INCOME II I 1982 DOLLAR S
(ANNUAL RATE , BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
225.
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1 964
1 965
1 966
1967
1968
1 969
1970
1971
1972
1973 .
1 974
1 97 5
301.7
301.6
314.4
346 .8
364.6
371.3
3 90 .5
412.7
423 .
454 .
482 .;
512 .i
549.<!
606 . '
657 .i
6 96 , ,
762.9
815.2
840 .9
923.9
1044 .3
1169.6
1228.2
1355.6
1483.9
1685 .9
1 936 .9
2107 .1
2300 .8
2487.2
2548.2
2851.5
3102.0
3287 ,3
844 . 3
880 .0
894 ,0
944.5
989,4
1012.1
1028 .8
1067 .2
10 9 1 . 1
1123^2
1170.2
1207 . 3
1291 .0
1365,7
1431 . 3
1493.2
1551.3
1599 .8
1668.1
1728.4
1797.4
1916.3
1896 .6
1931 .7
2066.6
2167.4
2212.6
2214.3
2248.6
2261.5
2331 .9
2470.6
2528.0
5
L . 2fi1
14^224
13 , 6 8 5
13,619
14,582
14,874
13 ,883
14,142
13 ,694
13,894
14,730
14,928
13 , 8 4 9
14,163
13 , 5 4 7
14,063
14,778
15 , 0 4 1
1 980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
224.
291.8
308.4
306.1
339 .9
357.4
376.7
377.3
408 .8
425 .7
442 ,5
475.8
503 ,8
543.3
589 .3
647 .0
6 82 .6
748.0
808.1
841 .0
905 .2
1002 ,5
1132.3
1216 .5
1315.5
1452.7
1654 .8
1870 .3
207 2 .1
2201.0
2483 .1
2528.4
2741 .8
3052 .3
3 243 .4
13,198
13,623
8,760
8 ,991
8 ,7 11
9 ,087
9 ,034
9 ,095
8,881
9,181
9,213
9,322
9,700
9,980
10 , 3 2 6
10,785
11 , 2 6 7
11,495
11,867
11,987
11 , 8 5 8
11 , 9 7 6
12 , 4 7 5
12,905
12 , 6 9 8
12,552
12,955
13,609
14,097
8i775
9,022
8,717
8 ,946
9 ,066
9,125
8 ,700
9,125 *
'
9^302
9,151
9,582
9 , 7 43
10 , 2 0 5
10,528
11 , 1 8 8
11,324
11,637
11,966
11,802
11,988
12.175
12,946
L2.890
L2.284
12,905
IV fl
All
11 UXlij
VtA
233.3
251.3
258.5
269 ,5
290,5
308.7
318 . 1
337 . 8
354.9
364.6
389.2
407 . 1
436.6
469.6
513 .7
549 .0
591.3
631.5
691,1
754.5
807.2
911 .0
1006.5
1080.4
1218.0
1317 .9
1474.
1666.
1857 ,
2065.
2207 .
2345.
26 12 .
2755.4
236 .0
255.7
257.9
276 .0
2 95.1 '
3U.6
3 20 .3
345.1
359 .1
370 .3
394,9
411.9
449 .5
47 8.9
519.9
557.2
607.5
647.0
711.1
774,1
821.2
936 .1
1022.1
1148.3
1 236 .H
1359 .0
1534.3
1701.5
1869.8
2095.8
2241,8
2395.4
2646 .3
2842.3
242.3
256.4
260 .4
282 . 4
299.1
317.1
328 .0
345.8
360.5
376 .2
398 . 3
418 . 1
456.7
493.7
530 . 4
566 .7
614.3
667.7
726 . 5
784.2
845.3
959 .9
1052.8
1155.7
1263.2
1404.0
1573 .6
17 52 .9
1 934.1
2162.0
2278.6
2443.2
2693 .8
2832.0
PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE* PERSONAL INCOME IN
(ANNUAI RATE, DOLLARS)
19 5 2 . . . . .
1953
1954....
1955
1956 . . .
1 957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1 969 . . . .
1970.....
1971
1972
197 3
1974
1975
19 7 6 , . ' . .
1977
1978
1979
1980
.
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
8,901
8,877
8 ,795
9,122
9,089
8 ,914
9 ,049
9 ,219
9,093
9,491
9,645
10,013
10,333
10,998
11,288
11,528
11,824
11 ,904
11 ,710
11 , 9 3 9
12 ,676
12,989
12,554
12,694
13,050
13,536
14,230
14,158
13 ,985
13,927
13,532
14,277
14,795
15,080
DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS
f AN NTT AT
PATP
RTt T f n N C fW )OLLARS)
\
286.5
309.5
302.5
333 .5
354.2
372.7
366.4
414.1
425 . 3
434.1
470 .9
496 .8
533,4
578.6
636 . 4
669.3
732.4
792.0
829,5
890 .6
97 3 , 4
1104,6
1190.6
1256.5
1425.6
1596 .9
1821,4
2023 , 2
2150 .5
2415,2
2514.0
2685.5
3010.3
3201 , 4
III Q
8 ,720
9 ,074
8,647
9 ,008
9 ,070
9 ,083
8,713
9 ,263
9,243
9,229
9,648
9,846
10 ,260
10,652
11 ,187
1 1 , 3 64
11,808
11 ,9 54
11 ,7 5 5
11 ,952
12 ,379
12,950
12,899
12,379
12,935
13,379
14,018
1952
1 953
1 954....
1955
1956
1 957
1958
1 959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964..,..
1965
1966
1967
1968
196 9 . . , ,
1 970
1 97
1....
1972
1973
1974
1975
197 6 . . , . .
1977
1978
NATIONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS
286.3
307 .0
302.3
324 .9
349 . 1
370 .5
365.7
401 .2
425 . 3
424 . 3
464.4
487 .9
524.3
566 . 4
627 . 1
662.7
713.0
777 . 1
818.8
87 2.7
956 .3
1084.3
1178.5
1228.6
1403.4
1 533 .5
1724.4
1986 .7
2161 .9
2388,4
2483.1
2599.1
2963 .2
3157 .0
1952
1953
1954
1 955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1 960
1961
1962
1 963
1964
1965
1966
1 967
1968
1969
197 0
197 1
1 972
1973
1974
1975
1976
197 7
1 97 8
197 9
1980
1981
1982
1983
1 984
1 985
1986
II Q
IQ
PER CAPITA GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS
(ANNUAI RATE, DOLLARS)
5 ,305
5 ,486
5 ,489
5 ,590
5,851
5 ,902
5 ,827
5,991
6 ,051
6 ,028
6,243
6,324
6 ,566
6 ,859
7 ,224
7,446
7 , 6 53
7,756
8 ,026
8,261
8,372
8 ,965
8 ,948
8 ,707
9,125
9,237
9,599
9,889
9 ,816
9,783
9 ,694
9 , 7 80
10,358
10,466
5,335
5,546
j ,440
5,679
S
R7 1
5,918
5 ^848
6,066
6 ,064
6,097
6,272
6,343
6.722
) ,942
,247
,498
,756
,829
1,139
1 ,352
1,432
) ,013
1,8 40
> ,115
>, 1 51
,318
9 ,730
9,818
9,611
9 ,724
9 ,736
9,855
10,392
10,674
5 ,427
5 ,510
5 ,502
5,7 51
5,874
5 ,923
5 ,948
6,010
6 ,036
6,124
6 ,285
6,385
6,783
7 ,106
7,301
7,538
7,737
7,969
8 ,208
8,337
8,571
9 ,059
8 ,866
8,947
9 ,187
9,461
9 ,763
9,820
9,676
9,818
9 ,720
9,933
10,457
10,537
247.6
257 . 1
265.6
287 .2
305,5
317.5
333 .2
349.8
361 . 1
383 .9
402 .2
426 ,2
462.9
505.0
539 .6
575.4
625.2
680.5
733 .7
794.4
884.6
992 . 1
1072.0
1186.7
1292.5
1436.4
1622 .1
17 96 .3
2010 .3
2187.0
2318.1
2527 .9
2729.6
2882 .2
Annual
AVERAGE
8 ,789
8,991
8,718
9,041
9,065
9 ,054
8 ,836
9 ,197
9 ,213
9,298
9,644
9 , 8 96
10,281
10 ,741
11,232
11,428
11,784
11 ,953
11,781
11 , 9 6 4
12 ,426
12,948
12,760
12,477
12,961
13 ,430
13,992
14,181
13 ,994
14,114
13,614
13,963
14,721
14,981
AVERAGE
239.8
255.1
260.5
278.8
297.5
313.9
324,9
344.6
358.9
373 .8
396 ,2
415.8
451.4
486.8
525 .9
562.1
609.6
656.7
715 .6
776.8
839.6
949 ,8
1038.4
1142 .8
1252.6
1379.3
1551 .2
1729.3
1918.0
2127.6
2261.4
2428.1
2670 .6
2828 .0
982 DOLLARS
AVERAGE
5 ,441
5 ,507
5 ,581
5 ,827
5,917
5,888
6,000
6,034
5,994
6,203
6 ,286
6,458
6,834
7,199 •
7 ,348
7,570
7,766
8 ,009
8 ,160
8,338
8,871
9 ,130
8,814
9 ,007
9,237
9,506
9,849
9,7 90
9,7 86
9,751
9,7 49
10,151
10,477
10,577
5 ,379
5,515
5 ,505
5 , 7 14
5 ,881
5 ,909
5,908
6,027
6,036
6 ,113
6,271
6,378
6 , 7 27
7,027
7,280
7,513
7 ,728
7 ,891
8 ,134
8,322
8,562
9,042
8,867
8 ,944
9,175
9,381
9,735
9 ,829
9,722
9,769
.9,725
9,930
10,421
10,563
(OCTOBER 1986)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
310.
1 Q
II Q
III Q
IV Q
IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(INDEX: 1982=100)
25 2
25.9
26 .2
26 .8
27 .7
28.8
29.5
30.2
30.9
31 .0
31 7
32 .3
32 .7
33 .5
34.5
35.7
37.1
39.0
41 .3
43 .4
45.8
48 0
51 ,9
57 .7
61 .7
65 6
69 9
76 1
82 .7
91 .3
98 2
102 .5
106 6
110 2
1952
1953
1 954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
196 2
1 963
1964
196 5
19*6
196 7
1966
196 9
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
197 5
1976
197 7 ....
1978
197 9
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984. ...
1985
1986
25 3
25 .9
26 3
27 1
27.9
28.9
29.6
30.4
30,9
31.2
31 8
32 3
32 8
33.6
34.8
35 7
37.5
39.5
41 9
44.2
46.1
49 0
53 .0
58 6
62.5
66 9
716
77 8
84.6
92 8
99 4
103.3
107 4
1111
25 5
26.0
26.3
27,3
28.2
29.2
29.7
30.6
31.0
31.4
31 9
32.4
33.0
33.9
35.1
36.0
37.9
40.1
42.2
44.7
46.7
50 0
54 .8
59.9
63,4
67,7
72 9
79 4
86.5
94.9
100 .8
104 .2
108 . 3
1118
25 9
25 .8
26 .5
27 4
28.5
29.3
29.9
30 .6
31.0
31.4
32 2
32.6
33 .1
34.1
35.5
36 .4
38.5
40.6
42 .7
45.3
47 .3
51 2
56 .3
61 .0
64.5
68 .9
74 4
81 0
89 .0
96 .7
101 7
105 .4
109 2
112 8
3 1 1 . FIXED-WEIGHTED PRICE INDEX, GROSS DOMESTIC BUSINESS
PRODUCT
(INDEX: 1982=100)
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1 9 5 7 . ... . .
1958
1 959
1960
1961 .
196 2
1963
1964
196 5
1 966
1967
196 8
1969
1970
1 97 1
1972 ....
1973
1974
197 5
1 976
1977
197 8
197 9 ....
1980
1 981
1982
,
1983
1984
1985
1986
<
40 .2
40 7
41 0
41 .1
41 .4
41.8
42 2
42 ,8
43 .9
45 2
46 .9
48 .5
49 7
50 9
52.4
56 .3
61.3
64 6
67 .6
70 .8
76 .5
83 5
91 .8
98 4
102 .3
106 .3
110 .0
40 3
40 9
41 0
41 2
41.5
41.9
42 4
43 1
44.1
45 6
47 .3
48 7
50 1
51 0
53.3
57.2
619
65 2
68.5
72.2
78 4
85 5
93 5
99 4
103.2
107.2
110 9
40 5
40 9
41 0
41 2
41.6
41.9
42 5
43 . s
44.^
45.
47.
48.f
50 l
51 J
54. i
58.1
63.0
65 9
69.1
73.4
80 .1
87 4
95.6
100 7
104.3
108.1
111.6
*
40 6
40 9
41 0
41 3
41 .7
42.0
42 5
43 8
44.8
46 ,4
48.3
49 .3
50 6
51 6
55 .1
60 .2
64 .0
66 8
69.9
74 .9
81 6
89 6
97 .2
101 5
105.3
109.1
112.6
345. INDEX OF AVERAGE HOURLY COMPENSATION, ALL EMPLOYEES,
)
1952 ....
1953
1954
1955 .....
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964. . ... .
1965
1966
1 967
1968
1969
1970
1971
197 2
1973
1974
1 975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
24 1
25.5
26 .6
27 .4
28.9
30 .8
32 , 1
33 6
35 1
36 2
37.8
39.1
40 .7
42 .0
44.1
46 7
49.9
53 .2
56 .9
60 8
64 7
69 .5
74 9
83 4
89.9
97 .2
105.4
114.9
125.9
139.3
150.9
159.5
165.1
171.5
24 4
25.9
26.7
27 7
29.4
31.2
3 2.4
33 9
35 4
36-6
38.0
39.2
41.0
42 4
44.9
47 3
50.7
54.0
57 .8
61 7
65 6
70.6
77 0
84 9
91.8
99.1
107.2
117.4
129.6
141.7
153.2
160.4
166.4
173.3
24.7
26.2
26.9
28.1
29.9
31.6
32.9
34 1
35 6
36 8
38.3
39.6
41.6
42.9
45.5
47.9
51.5
55.0
59 .0
62 8
66 5
72.0
79 1
86.3
93.8
100.9
109 .4
119.8
132.7
144.9
155.9
161.3
168.1
174,7
25 2
26 .4
27 .2
28 4
30.4
31.9
33 .2
34 4
35 9
37 2
38 .7
40 .1
41 .9
43 ,4
46.1
48 .5
52.5
56 .0
59 .6
63 2
67 7
7 3.3
81 2
88 0
95.5
102 ,8
111 .9
122.6
135.9
147.2
157.8
163.1
169.8
176 .2
Annual
Year
310C.
AVERAGE
25 5
25 ,9
26 .3
27 .2
28. 1
29.1
29.7
30 .4
30,9
31.2
31 9
32 .4
32,9
33 .8
35.0
35.9
37.7
39.8
42 .0
44.4
46.5
49 5
54 .0
59 3
63 .1
67.3
72 2
78 6
85 .7
94 0
100 0
103.9
107 9
HI 5
AVERAGE
40 g
41 2
41 4
41 6
41 9
42.3
42 8
43 7
44.6
46 .0
47 .8
49 , i
50 5
51 5
53.8
58,1
62 .6
65 6
68.8
7 2.9
79 2
86 5
94.5
100 0
103.8
107 .7
111.3
AVERAGE
24 6
26 .0
26 .9
27 9
29 .6
31.4
32.6
34 0
35 5
36 7
38.2
39.5
41.3
42 .7
45.1
47 ,6
51.2
54.5
58.3
62 1
66 1
71.3
78 1
85 6
92.8
100.0
108.5
118.7
131.0
143.3
154.4
161 .1
167 .4
173.9
IQ
1952
1953
1 954
1955
1 956
1 957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964 ....
1 965
1966
1967
1968
1969
197 0
197 1
197 2, ...
197 3
197 4
197 5
1976. ...
1977
1978
197 9
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
-0 3
0 3
5 4
4 8
3 4
5 0
1 .9
4 .1
4.0
0 .0
3 9
1 .2
1 .2
4. 9
4.8
2 3
7 .9
5.3
7 i
6 7
4.5
6 1
5 6
10 3
4.7
7 0
5 9
9 5
8 7
10 7
6 4
3 2
4 6
3 7
DOMESTIC BUSINESS PRODUCT
19 52
1953
1954
1955
1956
1 957 ,
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
197 1,
197 2
1973
1 974
197 5
197 6
1977
1978
197 9
1 980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
0 5
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 .9
1 7
2 5
1.3
3 .3
3 9
1 .9
3 1
3 1
6.0
8 8
7 5
4 2
5 4
5 3
8 7
9 5
10 3
5 2
3.1
4.0
3 .4
IV Q
16
0.0
19
4 0
3.4
2 1
1.4
2.7
0.0
2.6
1.3
0,0
1.2
1.2
3.5
0 0
4.4
5.2
5 9
7.6
2.6
8 6
8 8
6 4
5.3
8,2
10 1
9 2
9.5
6 7
5 0
3.2
3 0
3 3
3 2
10
0 2
2 9
4 4
4 1
2.2
2.7
1.3
2.6
13
12
2 5
3.6
3.5
3 4
4.3
6.2
2 9
46
5 3
8 4
14 3
9 2
5 9
49
7 5
8 5
9 3
9 4
5 8
35
3 4
2 5
5 8
-2 2
3 2
2 7
3 4
13
2.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
38
2.5
12
2.4
4.6
4 5
6.5
5.1
4 8
55
5.2
10 0
114
7 6
7.1
73
8 5
8 3
12.1
7 8
3 6
4.7
3 4
3 6
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
12
17
0 1
0 8
0 7
0.8
14
3.6
1.5
4.1
3.9
1.7
3.6
0.8
7.5
6.6
4 0
3 7
5.4
8 0
10.3
9 8
7.7
4.2
3.6
3.4
3.4
16
i o
0 6
0 4
10
0.8
0 9
27
2.8
2 7
40
11
20
19
8.4
101
7 4
4 3
3 1
6 9
8 9
9 2
92
53
4.2
3.4
2.5
13
0 4
0 1
0 6
12
0.9
0 7
32
3.0
4.3
40
4.0
16
2 9
5.6
11.3
6 2
5 2
5 1
8 4
8 1
10 5
6.8
3.2
3.9
3.5
3.6
OVER
1952
1 953
1954
195 5
1956
1957
1958
1959 ....
1960
1 961
1962
1963
1964
196 5
1966
196 7
1968
1969
1970
1971
197 2
1973
1974
197 5
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
,
1985
1986
9.4
2 9
3 6
4 5
6.2
4.9
4.1
4.0
3 2
3 7
4.6
5.2
2.5
5 1
4.7
5 3
8.2
80
4.5
2 5
7 6
7.7
10.7
8 1
7.5
7.9
9.7
9.8
9.8
6.6
5.0
4.6
4.1
3.6
5 6
4 g
3 5
3 4
7.6
6 5
2 3
4 5
8 2
4 2
6.8
4.0
5.7
1 3
6 .4
5 5
12.1
5 4
6 3
8 0
10 0
11 .0
9 .0
114
8.8
7.5
10 .4
11.2
11.1
10 .6
10.5
4.4
4.9
3.9
4.4
6 1
17
4 3
7.5
4.4
3.9
3.6
3 0
4 3
2.6
1.3
3.6
3 2
7.4
5 4
6.8
6.3
6.4
6.4
5 5
6.3
11.6
7 .5
8.7
7.8
6,9
8.9
12.3
6.9
6.0
2.2
3.2
4.4
4.3
4 8
32
5 3
6.6
5 1
53
29
2 2
2 4
2.3
4.1
6.2
4 6
6.0
5 2
6.0
72
8 5
6 9
5 7
8-2
1L 4
7 0
5.8
1.5
J.3
3,3
1().l
}.2
?.4
2.1
4.3
3.2
Annual
PERCENT
CHANGE 1
345C. CHANGE IN INDEX OF AVERAGE HOURLY COMPENSATION
1-QUARTER S P A N S 2 (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain revisions beginning with 1983.
'Year-to-year percent changes are computed from annual data. 2 This series contains revisions beginning with 1947.
III Q
II Q
CHANGE IN THE IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GROSS
NATIONAL PRODUCT
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1 5
1 6
1 6
3 2
3 4
3 6
2.1
2 .4
1.6
1 .0
2 2
1 .6
1 5
2 .7
3.6
2 6
5.0
5.6
5 5
5 7
4.7
6 5
9 1
9 8
6 .4
6 7
7 3
8 9
9 ,0
9 7
6 4
3 .9
3 8
3 3
PERCENT
CHANGE 1
1 i
0 5
0 5
0 7
0.9
1 i
2 1
2.2
3 .2
3 .9
2 .6
2 8
2 1
5.1
7 .9
7 7
4 9
4 g
5 9
8 7
9 3
9 .3
5 .8
3.8
3.8
3 .3
PERCENT
CHANGE'
5 6
5 7
3 4
3 8
6 .3
5 .8
4 ,0
4,l
4 4
3 4
4.1
3.4
4 .6
3.3
5.8
5 4
7.5
6.6
6 .9
6 .5
6 5
7 .9
9 .4
9 .7
8.3
7,8
8.5
9.4
10 .4
9.4
7 .8
4.3
3.9
3.9
(OCTOBER 1986)
101
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
IV Q
IQ
Annual
CHANGE IN INDEX OF AVERAGE HOURLY COMPENSATION OVER
4-QUARTER SPANS1 (ANHUAL RATE, PERCENT)
346C.
5.9
4,7
3.0
4.4
7 .0
5.2
3.9
3.8
4.1
4.8
6.3
2.8
4.2
6.5
5.5
4.1
3.8
4.4
3.5
3.9
3.5
5.2
2.9
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968,
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977 .
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
3.7
4.5
7.5
6.8
7.3
6.4
5.9
8.3
9.9
9.1
8.6
7 ,6
6.4
6.0
7 .2
8.3
10.7
8.5
8.5
7 .7
8.8
9 .6
10.8
8.3
7 .2
3.3
4.1
3.8
8
9.5
10.8
9.1
7.6
3.4
4.3
3.9
.1
.3
.4
.1
.4
4.8
5.9
6.9
6.6
6.9
6.8
6.4
7.4
7.8
11.3
7.9
8.1
8.4
9.0
9.5
10.7
8.3
5.7
3.5
3.9
3.6
6.1
3.2
3.6
6.2
5.9
4.0
4.4
4.5
3.5
3.9
3.0
4.7
3.3
.9
9.
10.
CHANGE IN INDEX OF REAL AVERAGE HOURLY COMPENSATION
OVER 1-QUARTER SPANS
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956.. . .
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
358.
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974.. . .
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983. . . .
1984
1985
1986
4,0
6.0
2.6
2.8
7.5
3.1
-2.5
3.8
7.8
3.3
5.2
2 .7
4.0
0.1
2.5
4.1
7.3
0.4
-0 .4
4 .4
6.2
4.5
3.3
4.4
2.3
4.9
4.8
0.9
1 ,2
2.9
0.5
4 .5
1.1
0.5
3.0
0.6
3.6
3.1
2 .7
0.0
= 3.0
2 .6
4.0
-0.1
3.2
0.8
-4.8
2,4
5,2
0.4
-2.4
-4.1
- 1 .6
-1.6
0.6
-2.0
-0.4
0,3
-0.7
6.5
4,1
-0 .2
0.6
INDEX OF OUTPUT
BUSINESS
1.5
2.9
4.3
5.0
2.2
1.5
5.5
0.8
2.0
0.8
1.2
1 .7
5.3
3.4
2.4
0.9
0.7
1.1
3.7
2.7
2.0
-0.2
-0.6
-1.2
2.3
1.8
-1.1
-4.5
2.3
-2.1
0.0
-2.0
0.5
0.6
9.0
2.1
5.0
3.3
2.6
2.9
3,7
1 .6
0.6
3.1
3.5
4.0
0.6
2.9
1.3
1.3
3.0
1.9
-1.2
-0.1
3.4
-2.3
-2.0
0.4
1.5
1.8
0.0
-3.1
-1.8
0.0
3.4
0.4
0.4
-0.7
>ER HOUR, ALL PERSONS,
SECTOR
(1977=100)
60,5
61.4
62.3
64.5
64.8
66.1
66.6
70.1
71.2
71.8
75.2
77 .2
80.7
82.3
85.2
85.7
88.7
89.5
87,9
91.7
93.3
97.7
95.5
94.0
97,9
99.3
100.2
100.4
98,9
100.3
98 .8
100.9
103.9
104.4
60.9
62,0
62.5
64.9
65.2
66.2
67.7
0 -9
0.9
73.0
74.9
78.1
81.2
83,0
85.0
86.9
89 .6
89.1
88.8
91 .7
94.4
96.3
94.5
96.0
98 .6
99 .6
101.2
99.5
98 .2
99.9
99.2
102.7
104.6
104.9
60.7
62.4
63.4
65.1
65.3
66.6
68.3
69.7
70.8
73.6
75.8
78.9
82.0
83,7
85.3
87.8
89.8
88,9
90.4
92.4
94.9
96.0
93.7
97.3
98.8
101.1
101 .0
98.8
98.8
100.1
99.1
102.9
104.4
105.4
89.9
92.0
96.4
95.8
93.6
96.8
98.5
100.0
101 .1
98.4
99.4
98.8
99.7
103.3
104.3
104.5
5.6
4.6
3.1
5.0
6.5
4 .7
4.2
4.2
3,8
3.8
3 .6
4.0
4.1
4.3
5.9
6.2
T.I
6.8
6.8
6.2
7.0
8.4
10.6
8.4
8.3
8.0
8.9
9 ,8
10.4
8.4
6.3
3.5
4.1
3.6
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962,
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977 .
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985,
1986.
PERCENT
CHANGE 2
346C.
3.3
4.9
2 .9
4 .1
4.7
2.3
1 .2
3.3
2.8
2.3
2,9
2.1
3.3
1.6
2 .8
2.5
3.2
3.1
1 .6
-1.4
0.5
2.4
1.2
0 .8
-1.7
- 2 ,8
-0.9
1.5
1.1
-0 .4
0 .3
60.7
62.1
63 .0
64.8
65,2
66 .5
68.0
70 .2
71.0
73 .2
75.6
78.3
81.4
83 .4
85.2
87.1
89.4
89.0
89.3
91.9
94.7
96 .4
94.3
96.0
98.5
100.0
100 .8
99.3
98.8
99.8
99 .2
102.4
104.3
104.8
55.4
58.1
59.9
62.0
65.2
67.3
67.7
70.1
72.4
73.6
76.1
77.7
79.6
81.4
83.
85.
88.4
89.9
90,5
92.2
94.8
97.8
96.0
96.1
97.4
99,6
101.4
100 .6
96.5
96.0
96.6
98.6
97.6
97.9
102
55.8
58.7
60.2
62.8
66.0
67.4
67.9
70.6
72.5
74.4
76.3
89.0
89.9
90.6
92.8
95.5
97.4
96.1
96,7
98.7
99.7
100.7
99.6
96,1
95.7
96.8
98.1
97.5
98.0
56.0
59.2
60.8
63.5
66 .3
67.7
68.8
70 .8
72.9
74.5
76.5
78.1
81.3
82.2
84.6
86.6
89.1
90.2
91.5
93.4
96.0
97.3
96.0
96.4
99.2
100 .1
100.5
98.5
96.6
95.1
96.8
97.6
97.6
98.1
57 .3
59.5
61.6
64.0
66.8
68.2
69.5
71.1
73.0
75.1
77.1
78.9
81.4
82.8
84.9
86.9
89,8
90.
91
93,
96,
96,
95,
96,
99.
100,
100.
97,
96,
95,
97.6
97.7
97.7
98.0
56.2
58.9
60.6
63.1
66.1
67.6
68.4
70.7
72,6
74.3
76.4
78.0
80.6
81.9
84.2
86.3
89.1
90.1
90.9
92.9
95.8
97.3
95.9
96.4
98.8
100.0
100.8
99.1
96.3
95.5
97 .0
98.0
97.6
98.0
CHANGE IN INDEX OF REAL AVERAGE HOURLY COMPENSATION
OVER 4-QUARTER SPANS1 (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
2.0
5.6
2.8
4.4
4.4
2.0
1,7
2.8
2.9
2.3
2.6
2.1
4,1
1.2
2.9
2.4
3.0
1.1
1.5
2,1
2.8
1.4
-1.4
0.4
2.9
0.9
0.4
-2.0
-1.8
-1.6
1.7
0.8
0.1
0.5
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984,
1985.
1986.
4.4
3.9
3.5
4.0
4.3
2.3
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.2
3.2
1.8
2.5
2.3
3.4
0.9
0.7
2.4
3.6
-0.1
-1.5
-1 .1
2.6
0.1
0.1
0.2
4.9
3.0
3.6
5.2
3 .2
0.7
3.5
3.2
1.6
3.4
2.1
2.5
2.2
2.4
2.8
3.1
1.7
0 .7
0.1
1.4
2.2
1.8
-0.7
-4.1
-0.5
0.6
2.0
-1.0
0.3
0.5
5.2
2.5
4.2
5.1
2.2
0.8
4.0
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.0
3.2
1.6
3.1
2.7
3.0
1.0
0.8
2.4
2.9
1.9
-1.3
0.6
2.1
1.0
1.1
-1.1
-3.5
-0.5
1,2
1.4
-0.6
0.5
1.4
3.5
4 .7
3.5
1.4
2.8
2.7
2.4
2.8
2.4
2.5
2.8
2.1
2.7
2 .7
2.3
0.9
1.6
2.6
2.9
-0.5
-0.5
1 .2
2.3
1.2
-0.4
-3.1
-1 .1
-0.2
1.9
-0 .2
0 .2
0.6
INDEX OF OUTPUT PER HO'JR, ALL PERSONS,
SECTOR
(1977-100)
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955,
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970 .
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976 .
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
MOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 1947.
1
Changes are centered on the 3d quarter of the span. Annual figures are averages of the centered changes.
changes are computed from annual data.
Annual
346. INDEX OF REAL AVERAGE HOURLY COMPENSATION, ALL
EMPLOYEES, NONFARM BUSINESS SECTOR
(1977-100)
AVERAGE
60.9
62.5
63.7
64.9
65.7
66.9
69.6
0.2
.0
.7
.7
.2
.0
.8
85.3
88.2
89.7
IV Q
Year
54.7
56.5
57.4
59.9
60.6
62.2
63.2
66.5
68.2
68.2
71.6
74.2
78.1
80.0
83 .1
83.9
86 .9
87 .4
87 .2
91.1
92.3
97.0
94.5
93
99,4
100.1
100.6
99 .4
100.9
99.8
101.9
104.9
105.7
55.6
57B5
57.9
60.3
60.6
62.5
63.8
66.7
67.6
70.0
71.9
7 5.1
7 8.2
80.4
83.0
85.4
87.8
87.8
87.9
90.9
93.8
95.8
94.1
95.7
98.3
99.5
101.2
99.9
98.7
100.8
100.2
103.5
105.6
106 ,4
55.7
57.8
58.8
60.2
60.8
62 .5
64.7
66 .1
67.3
70 .4
73.0
76 .0
79.1
81.5
83.4
86 .1
88.2
87.9
89.6
91.9
94.2
95.3
93.4
96.8
98.5
101.
101.0
99.
99.
101.3
100.3
103.0
105.5
107 .3
55.7
58.1
59.4
60.1
61.8
62.9
65.9
66.9
67.5
71.6
73.7
76.4
79.4
82.
83.
86.5
88.0
88.0
89.4
91.5
96.1
95.8
93.3
96.8
98.6
100.
101.2
98.7
99.8
99.9
101.0
103.8
105.5
106.4
55.4
57.5
58.4
60.1
60.9
62.5
64.4
66.5
67 .6
70.0
72.5
75.4
78.7
81.0
83.2
85.5
87.8
87.8
88.4
91 .3
94.1
95.9
93.9
95.7
98 .3
100.0
100.8
99.6
99 .3
100.7
100.3
103.0
105.3
106.4
(OCTOBER 1986)
2
Year-to-yea
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
III Q
IQ
37OC.
-1.5
6.0
-4.6
3.4
2.8
2.6
1.6
3,3
8.3
4.2
0 .2
2.6
9.1
2.8
3.6
1.8
1.9
-2.9
-3.5
8.3
3.
4.
-5.
2.
5.
3.
-0.7
-2.3
2.8
4.8
-0.1
3.9
4.4
0.9
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958.... .
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972.,,..
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985r
1986
500.
6.2
6 .6
3.A
2.9
0 .6
1.4
3.8
1.1
-3.7
10 .9
1.8
5.2
0.7
1.9
-0
3,0
- 1 .2
6.6
-4.9
-1.8
8.7
1 .1
0.5
4.4
-2.7
-2.7
-0.7
1.5
6.1
1.1
2.3
6,5
-0.8
1.1
0.2
6.3
-3.4
- 1 .8
2 .1
5.9
4.7
4.6
5.6
1.7
3.3
1.7
0.4
8.0
4.5
1.5
-2.3
-2.8
4.5
1.0
7.0
-0.8
-2.5
2.1
2.1
0.2
-1.6
-0.3
3.4
Annual
2.8
7.6
4,8
1.7
6.9
4.3
2.1
1.6
4.4
0.6
2.0
-0,6
0.6
-1.0
- 1 .7
8.3
2.1
-0.7
0.0
0.3
-3.4
0.6
-2.2
2.0
-5.5
3.0
2.8
-0.1
-3.2
3.1
3 .6
1.6
3.0
1.3
2 .6
3.0
3.3
1 .7
3.5
3.6
4.0
4.3
3 ,2
3 .0
2.0
-2.1
2.0
2.8
1 .7
0.8
-1.2
-0 .3
1.4
-0,4
2 ,7
2.3
1.0
370C.
IQ
-4.6
-10.6
1.8
6.6
4.7
-7 ,4
-2.9
7.6
-4.3
-5.7
-1 .9
-3.0
-3.8
-6.3
-6.7
-7.5
-5.9
-5.1
4.9
4.7
5.3
2,8
5 .9
2 .8
-11.8
1.6
4 .2
-5.1
-4.1
2.0
-6 .7
4.6
0.6
4.0
1.3
-12.9
-9.8
11.4
-1.3
-18.5
-12.8
-8.8
-4.4
-47.0
-53.8
-39.2
-47.5
-9.8
-37.8
-47.4
-109.2
-186.2
-154.0
-162,2
-13.2
-12.1
11.5
-13.1
-23.6
-20.6
-8.8
-10.6
100.1
-48.6
-42.0
-25.3
-6.0
-64.5
-49.2
112.9
171 .4
163.9
214.8
-12.0
-1 .7
1.4
-3.9
-3,2
1.2
-2.4
-3.1
-3.2
-13.6
-2.6
.
66.4
76.8
73.9
68.4
70.0
78.7
84.1
91.3
91 .0
99.7
109.9
114.6
119.6
119.6
137.5
161.8
175.6
186 .8
197.2
217.3
240.3
26 5.5
285.8
341 .2
382.3
410.8
454.7
497.8
577.2
675.7
745.9
822.7
865.2
955.4
70,5
78,6
70 .1
67.2
72.3
80.3
88.5
90 .7
93.1
102.7
110.2
113.3
120 .1
121.9
141 .6
162.9
183.3
189.8
210.7
224.8
249.4
269.0
301 .6
361 .7
385.0
421 .6
460.2
504.9
599 .5
685.0
754.0
837.4
885.6
970.6
-3.8
-11.8
-1.9
6.4
6.4
-1.3
-9.9
-1.5
-1.1
-2.2
-4.0
-0.2
-1.0
-3.4
-5.9
-13.0
6.5
0.3
4.3
-14.9
-23.8
-10.2
-2.9
-7.9
-64.7
-54.9
-51.9
-24.2
-20.0
-75.0
-62.5
-158.8
-177.3
-171.9
-197.5
-20.4
-22.2
-23.7
-1.8
-23.4
-65.8
-56.8
-51.0
-20.4
-28.7
-68.0
-96.0
-202 .6
-169.2
-190,1
-217.6
74.8
77.1
69.2
69.4
72.9
80.4
92.2
92.3
95.0
103 .7
111 .7
115.2
119.0
127 .6
148.6
167.2
185.1
192.6
209.3
226.6
242.6
267.2
311.3
371.9
399.1
438.7
476.3
530.8
630.3
714.9
789 .1
838.9
901.1
990.1
CHANGE IN OUTPUT PER HOUR OVER 4-QUARTER
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
196 4
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1.9
3.7
1 .7
2.4
1.0
2.8
3.6
2 .1
1.8
4.7
3.6
4,2
4.1
2.9
2 .3
3 .3
2 .4
-0.4
2.0
2 .6
2.5
1.2
-1.9
3 .6
1.8
2.7
-0.2
-1.7
0 .0
2.0
-1.0
2.8
2 .4
1 .7
-3 .7
-7.1
-6.0
4 .4
6.1
2.3
-10 .3
-1.1
3.0
-3.9
-4 .2
0.3
-3.3
0.5
-1.8
-13.2
-6.0
8-4
-12 .4
-22.0
-16.8
-5.6
-11.6
-69.4
-53.5
-46.0
-29.3
-16.1
-61.3
-63.8
-145.9
-176.0
-170.0
-198.0
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986 .
.0
6.0
3.0
3.7
4.0
3.6
1.4
3.6
1.8
•0.1
1.6
2.4
5.0
•0.3
•2.6
3.8
1.9
1.7
0.8
•2.4
1.0
0.1
1,1
2.7
1,6
0.9
3 .3
1.5
4.4
1.1
2.8
1.5
5.2
2.6
0.1
4.9
3.6
5.3
2 .4
3,8
1.0
3.7
1.3
5.1
- 2 .6
-0 ,8
4.5
1.4
0.8
0.5
- 1 .2
SPANS
Annual
1
3.4
0.7
4.3
0.5
3.0
2.1
4.6
1.3
3.7
2.7
4.5
4.1
2.7
3.3
2.9
2.8
0.0
0.1
3.4
3.2
2.
-1.
1.
2.
1.
1.
-1.
-1.2
2.0
-0.6
3.3
2.0
0.8
1.0
66.6
72.2
63.4
70.2
76 .5
83.4
76.7
88.3
98 .
95.
104.
112.
116 .
124.
138.
149.0
165.9
198.2
195.9
198.8
227 .6
256 .7
281 .4
294.2
328.5
371.6
407.2
488.0
539.4
628.2
636.7
636 .5
711 .2
793.3
66.7
72.3
63.4
72.1
78.2
83.1
76.6
92.3
97.2
97,6
106.1
115.3
113.4
125,8
142.9
149.7
171.2
201.3
197.6
201 .2
228.9
260.2
291 .0
261 .7
336.4
379.6
434.9
498.9
535.0
635.8
641.1
666.0
721.7
755.8
67.2
71,2
64.0
74.1
78.2
83.2
80.2
116 .4
116.6
124.6
145.4
153.6
182.5
199.2
194.3
202 .8
232.4
264,2
303 .4
307.3
344.2
386.7
452.1
510.8
555.3
652.4
630 .3
661 .6
729.2
792.6
2.5
2.5
3,2
1.3
2 .4
2 .0
4.6
1.8
1 .6
4.6
3 .7
4.3
3.3
3 .4
1.9
3.4
1.2
- 0 .1
2.9
2.4
3.7
-0,9
-0.9
3.6
1.6
1.7
0.0
- 1 .6
1.1
0 .1
1.4
2.6
1.4
1.3
AVERAGE
70.2
66.0
66.1
76.0
81 .1
80.2
83.8
91.1
95.4
103.2
109.9
117.8
118.3
128.7
147.7
158.1
188.0
200.3
193,6
208
240
273.9
299.8
316.3
351 .4
398.4
471.4
522.4
585.6
641.7
633.1
675.5
743.9
805.8
67 .7
70.4
64.2
73.1
78.5
82,5
79.3
90 .6
96.9
99,0
107.2
115.6
116.2
125.8
143.5
152.6
176.9
199,7
195.4
202,7
232.2
263 .7
293 .9
294,9
340.1
384.1
441 .4
505 .0
553 .8
639.5
635.3
659 .9
726 .5
786.8
510. STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT SURPLUS OR DEFICIT
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
74.0
77.9
68.1
69.5
74.7
81 .5
93.7
92.6
96.5
105.3
113.9
118.1
119.3
132.1
153 .6
171.1
187.7
195.9
214.1
230 .3
263 . 8
275.7
323.2
382.1
408.2
449.3
491 .8
551 .0
653.6
737.7
835,7
844.7
934.0
1023.4
71.4
7 7..6
70.3
68.6
72.5
80 .2
89,6
91.7
9 3.9
102.9
111.4
115.3
119.5
125.3
145.3
165.8
182 .9
191.3
207.8
224.8
249.0
269.3
305 .5
364.2
393 .7
430 .1
470.7
521 . 1
615.1
703 .3
781.2
835.9
896.5
984.9
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960,
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968 .
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981 .
1982.
1983.
1984.
1985.
1986.
NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain revisions beginning with 1983.
'This series contains revisions beginning with 1947. Changes are centered on the 3d quarter of the span
are averages of the centered changes. 2Year-to-year changes are computed from annual data.
IV Q
II Q
5 0 1 . FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
502. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
196 2
1963
196 4
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
197 0
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Year
PERCENT
CHANGE2
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SURPLUS OR DEFICIT
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
0.1
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
196 9
1970
1971
1972
197 3
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
IV Q
CHANGE IK OUTPUT PER HOUR OVER 1-QUARTER
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
-0 .3
-0.5
-0.6
- 1 .7
-1.0
-0.7
- 2 .6
- 1 .8
0.2
-0.7
0.1
0 .1
0.8
1.0
0.4
-1.2
0.2
0.0
3.6
0.3
5.7
16.2
10.1
0.8
8.2
21.6
30.2
30.5
25 .7
32.8
33.2
37.0
66.5
65.6
-0.7
1.0
-1.0
-1.6
-0.9
-1.3
-2.4
-1.6
0,1
-0.1
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.9
-2.3
-0.1
0.4
3.1
2.3
16.6
14.1
8.2
4.1
12 .1
24.3
31.9
24.5
22.6
34.4
35.2
45.4
70 .0
59.2
0 .4
0 .2
-1 .5
-1.0
-0.7
-1.4
-2.9
0 .7
0.0
0.1
0 .6
0.6
1.3
-0,8
1.1
-0.7
0.1
1.9
1.0
3.2
9 .5
12.3
16.4
31 .3
24.7
28.1
26.4
36.3
36.3
51.1
67,2
59.5
0.4
-0 .1
-1 .4
-0,9
-0.9
-2.0
-1.6
0.9
-0.1
-0.7
0.7
0.6
1.3
-0.6
= 0.5
0.0
0.1
3.6
-0.3
4.4
22.1
11 .4
4.0
5.8
24.1
30.4
28.9
27 .2
32.5
32.9
35.8
56.4
70.2
62,5
0.0
-1.1
-1.3
-0.9
-1.4
-2 .4
-0 .4
0.1
-0.4
1 .0
0 .0
0.5
-1 .1
0.1
1.5
1.8
2.6
13.5
13.5
7 .2
4.5
28
27
26
34
35
47
68
61
.9
.6
.8
,i
.1
.5
.5
.7
(OCTOBER 1986)
Annual figures
103
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
III Q
NQ
IQ
IV Q
Annual
Year
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
24.5
26.3
28.4
30.5
33.7
37.7
40.2
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
196 3
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
564.
48.
52.
57,
61.
67.
72.
81 . 4
90.5
102.9
115.1
130.7
145.
167.
192.
204,
225.
259.
286.
318.
344.
378.0
418.0
437.2
467.4
5 26.5
561.3
965.
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
25.8
27 .7
29.3
32.2
35.5
38.8
42.0
47.8
50.6
54.6
59,0
64.3
70.7
76.3
86 .7
95.2
109 .6
122 ,7
137.8
155.7
176.8
196.9
216 .2
245.9
272.3
306.4
330,6
359.8
3 93.5
428 .9
453.7
496.0
542.9
584.2
26.4
27 .9
29.8
32.7
36.2
39.3
44.4
47 .9
51.2
55.9
60.2
65.8
71,8
78,1
88 ,6
99 .2
112.6
126 .6
140.6
160.6
193.7
201.5
220 .1
251,7
282.7
310.9
340 .4
368.9
407.9
431.6
459,8
505.8
555.3
592,7
25.4
27.4
29.0
31 .7
35.0
38.5
42.0
46.6
50,0
54.1
58.6
63.4
69,8
75.5
85,2
94.1
107 .9
120 .8
135.8
153.6
179.3
196.4
213.1
239,6
270.1
300.1
330.3
355.3
390.0
425.6
449 .4
487.7
540.8
577.5
v b t tiN b u
^ Api N U AJj KATb ^
42.7
49.5
44.8
39.1
38.8
43,8
45.1
46.9
44.7
46.9
51.9
51,3
51,2
48.6
56.8
71.3
78.3
77.8
78.8
75.6
78.3
78.0
79.1
87.7
91 .4
98.1
104.1
115.9
135.9
157.2
182.2
208.5
227 .1
248.9
45,9
49.9
42.4
38.6
40.8
44.4
46.1
46.3
44.6
47.6
52.3
51 .6
50.9
49.7
60.1
72,4
79,4
78.2
76.0
73.8
78.6
77.6
82,0
88.3
92.3
100.7
107.8
118.4
139.3
164.6
190.3
213.3
233.7
255.1
s I L L ION v
(JI*
565.
47 .3
48.7
40 .3
39.7
40 .8
45.2
46.6
46.3
45.6
47.8
52,
51.
50.
50.
64.
74.5
79.1
79.9
76.1
72.9
76.1
75.8
82.9
89.9
93.8
101.7
110.3
122.9
143.0
168.4
197.3
214.3
234.5
265.5
AVERAGE
DULLARb J
48.9
47.9
38.9
38.5
42 .4
44.9
47.2
45.9
46.2
49.4
52.0
51.6
49.4
54.7
66.8
75,5
79.8
79.9
76,2
74.0
76.7
78.5
86.5
92.5
96.2
103.0
113.4
130 .3
152.5
179.7
205,4
221 .5
244.9
268.0
46.2
49.0
41.6
39.0
40.7
44.6
46.3
46 .4
45.3
47 .9
52.1
51.5
50 .4
51.0
62.0
73.4
79.1
78.9
76.8
74.1
77.4
77.5
82.6
89.6
93.4
100,9
108.9
121 .9
142.7
167.5
193.8
214.4
235.0
259.4
36
89
59
48
39
53
36
53
56
42
53
71
74
48
42
59
53
50
65
83
48
24
53
48
59
53
65
59
56
62
30
42
8
56
42
36
71
53
48
48
62
83
30
42
18
50
24
53
59
48
39
80
36
24
74
74
62
68
56
65
30
45
65
39
36
77
48
59
48
30
42
56
59
42
27
36
45
53
42
59
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
Annual
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
24.8
26.8
29.0
32.2
34.7
38.4
42 .7
46.8
48.2
53.3
57.1
61 .0
66,6
72.0
80.9
91.7
102.7
115.1
127.1
145.5
161.4
176.5
194.6
225 .0
251.6
265.3
288.6
313.8
352.3
385.2
404.0
430.4
460.0
495.6
25.7
26.8
29,7
32.8
35.5
39 ,,4
43.8
47.1
49.6
53.5
57.7
61.9
68.4
74.1
83.3
93.8
106.7
118.2
131.1
149.il
162,9
180.6
203.1
231 .2
253.5
271.8
299.4
323.5
358.0
389.2
411.5
436.0
46 8.7
512.6
25.4
27 .5
30.8
33.1
36.2
40.2
44.9
47.1
50.6
54.6
58.5
63 .6
69.4
77.1
85.5
96.0
109.4
120.8
136.9
152.5
167.2
184.6
209.7
238.8
255.9
275.0
305.9
331 .7
367.0
392.6
417.4
444.9
475.8
524.7
26.0
28.0
31.1
33.6
37.1
41.3
46.1
47.0
51.3
56.6
59.5
65.2
70.6
78.7
89.1
99.2
112.5
123.0
140.9
156.2
171.7
190.1
216.1
245.8
258.6
280.6
311,5
341.6
375.3
398.7
424.1
449.5
485.0
530.2
25.5
27.3
30.2
32.9
35.9
39.8
44.4
47.0
49.9
54.5
58.2
62.9
68.8
75.5
84.7
95.2
107.8
119.3
134.0
151.0
165.8
182.9
205.9
235 .2
254.9
273 .2
301.3
327.7
363.2
391.4
414.3
440.2
472 .4
515.8
NATIONAL DEFENSE PURCHASES AS A PERCENT OF GNP
(PERCENT)
12.4
13.4
12.2
9 .9
9.2
9.8
10.2
9.7
8.7
9.1
9.2
8 .7
8.0
7 .1
7.5
8.9
9.1
8.3
7.9
7.0
6.7
5.9
5.5
5.8
5.3
5.2
4.9
4.8
5.1
5.3
5.9
6.4
6.2
6.4
13.3
13.3
11.5
9 .6
9.6
9.9
10.3
9 .3
8.7
9.0
9.1
8 .6
7.9
7 ,2
7.9
9.0
9.0
8 .2
7.5
6.7
6.6
5.8
5.6
5.6
5.2
5.1
4.8
4.8
5.2
5.5
6.0
6.3
6.2
6.4
13.5
13.0
10 .8
9.
9.
9.
10.
9.
8.
8.
9.0
8.4
7.7
7 ,2
8.3
9 .1
8.8
8 .2
7 .4
6.5
6.2
5.5
5.6
5.5
5.2
5.0
4.8
4.8
5.2
5.4
6.2
6,2
6.2
6.6
13.4
13.0
10 .2
9.2
9.7
10.0
10 .0
9.1
9.0
9.0
8.9
8.3
7.5
7.5
8.4
9.0
8.7
8 .1
7.4
6.6
6 .1
5.6
5.7
5.5
5.2
5.0
4.8
5.0
5.4
5.8
6 .4
6.2
6.4
6.6
13.1
13.2
11.2
9.6
9.5
9.9
10,1
9,4
8.8
9.0
9.1
8.5
7.8
7 .2
8.0
9.0
8.9
8 .2
7.6
6.7
6.4
5.7
5.6
5.6
5.2
5.1
4.8
4.9
5.2
5.5
6.1
6.3
6.2
6.5
965.
DIFFU
LY APPROVED CAPITAL APPROPRIATIONS 1 (PERCENT RISING 4-QUARTER MOVING AVERAGE)
DIFFUSION INDEX OF NEWLY APPROVED CAPITAL APPROPRIATIONS 1 (PERCENT RISING OVER 1-QUARTER SPANS)
44
42
40
60
56
65
51
52
51
49
42
53
62
64
44
42
54
57
50
48
42
44
65
53
NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain revisions beginning with 1983.
1
This series contains revisions beginning with 1953.
104
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
197 5
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES,
N A 1 1 UN AL
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
196 7
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
25.0
27 .8
28.7
31,2
34.6
38.1
41 .4
45.4
49.7
53.4
58.1
62.4
69.0
74.6
84.2
91 .5
106.6
118.6
134.2
152.1
179.4
194.7
211.4
235.3
265.5
296 .1
331.3
348.0
380.6
423 .7
446.8
481,4
538.8
571.9
IV Q
II Q
IQ
512.
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
64
54
62
63
63
51
47
55
50
58
65
50
33
56
62
48
48
41
51
38
56
58
54
48
70
45
42
55
60
40
60
59
61
56
65
51
51
50
49
42
53
62
64
43
42
44
49
53
59
51
62
42
39
59
56
45
61
55
64
60
66
45
50
55
48
42
56
67
55
37
49
53
60
49
50
41
42
54
65
58
56
42
60
57
63
60
64
48
50
54
48
42
56
62
59
42
44
55
56
50
48
43
43
47
57
55
49
{OCTOBER 1986)
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Cyclical Indicators
Specific peak dates corresponding to contractions beginning in—
Series
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average weekly hours, mfg
5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted)
8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries
.'
12. Index of net business formation
20. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 1982 dollars
29. Building permits, new private housing units
36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand
and on order in 1982 dollars (smoothed1)
99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed1)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators
940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars
47. Index of industrial production
57. Mfg. and trade sales in 1982 dollars
920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted)
77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.—actual
data as a percent of trend
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
101. Commercial and industrial loans in 1982 dollars
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income
930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators
July 1981
Jan. 1980
5/81 (-2)
7/81 (0)
10/80 (-9)
4/81 (-3)
12/80 (-7)
4/81 (-3)
9/80 ( - 1 0 )
3/79 (-10)
9/78 (-16)
12/78 (-13)
3/79 (-10)
10/78 (-15)
3/79 (-10)
6/78 (-19)
4/73
2/73
3/73
5/73
12/72
10/73
12/72
7/81 (0)
10/80 (-9)
11/80 (-8)
NSC
5/81 (-2)
4/81 ( - 3 )
3/81 (-4)
1/79 (-12)
4/79 (-9)
NSC
1/78 (-24)
3/78 (-22)
3/79 (-10)
4/78 (-21)
4/73
4/73
1/73
1/73
2/73
3/73
12/72
7/81 (0)
8/81 ( + 1)
7/81 (0)
1/81 (-6)
7/81 (0)
3/80 ( + 2)
1/80 (0)
3/80 ( + 2)
5/79 (-8)
1/80 (0)
10/74 ( + 11)
11/73
(0)
11/73
(0)
11/73
(0)
11/73
(0)
12/81 ( + 5)
1/82 ( + 6)
7/79 (-6)
6/80 ( + 5)
9/73 (-2)
3/75 ( + 16)
1/82 ( + 6)
8/81 ( + 1 )
9/82 ( + 1 4 )
NSC
1/82 ( + 6)
6/80
4/80
3/80
NSC
4/80
( + 5)
( + 3)
( + 2)
( + 3)
Nov. 1982
COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982 dollars
47. Index of industrial production
57. Mfg. and trade sales in 1982 dollars
920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted)
77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1982 dollars
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.—actual
data as a percent of trend
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
101. Commercial and industrial loans in 1982 dollars
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income
930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators
3/75
9/74
9/74
4/74
12/74
(-7)
(-9)
(-8)
(-6)
(-11)
(-1)
(-11)
(-7)
(-7)
(-10)
(-10)
(-9)
(-8)
(-11)
( + 16)
( + 10)
( + 10)
( + 5)
( + 13)
Dec.
1969
10/68
1/69
11/68
6/69
4/69
4/69
2/69
(-14)
(-11)
(-13)
(-6)
(-8)
(-8)
(-10)
5/59
4/59
2/59
10/59
4/59
3/59
11/58
11/68
2/69
12/68
1/69
1/69
4/69
11/68
(-13)
(-10)
(-12)
(-11)
(-11)
(-8)
(-13)
3/70
NSC
10/69
10/69
10/69
( + 3)
(-2)
(-2)
(-2)
10/69 (-2)
11/70 ( + 11)
1/70
2/70
8/70
NSC
3/70
( + 1)
( + 2)
(+8)
( + 3)
Apr. 1960
Aug. 1957
(-6)
(-12)
(-13)
(-17)
11/55
9/55
7/55
10/55
6/55
11/56
2/55
(-21)
(-23)
(-25)
(-22)
(-26)
4/59 (-12)
10/58 (-18)
7/59 (-9)
NSC
6/59 (-10)
5/59 (-11)
4/59 (-12)
9/56
9/55
7/56
4/56
6/55
9/55
5/55
(-11)
(-23)
(-13)
(-16)
3/57
8/57
2/57
2/57
2/57
(-5)
4/60
6/60
1/60
1/60
1/60
(-11)
(-12)
(-H)
(0)
( + 2)
(-3)
(-3)
(-3)
6/60 ( + 2)
1/61 ( + 9)
2/61 ( + 10)
7/60 ( + 3)
NSC
12/60 (+8)
6/60 ( + 2)
(-9)
(-30)
( = 26)
(-23)
(-27)
(0)
(-6)
(-6)
(-6)
9/57 ( + 1)
4/58 ( + 8)
4/58
12/57
9/57
1/58
12/57
(+8)
( + 4)
( + 1)
( + 5)
( + 4)
July 1953
4/53
9/52
4/53
7/52
9/52
2/53
11/52
(-3)
(-10)
(-3)
(-12)
2/53
NSC
1/53
NSC
10/52
3/53
10/52
(-5)
( = 10)
(-5)
( = 8)
(-6)
(-9)
(-4)
(-9)
6/53 ( = D
10/53 ( + 3)
7/53
(0)
4/53 (-3)
5/53 (-2)
9/53 ( + 2)
12/53 ( + 5)
12/53
2/54
6/53
4/54
12/53
( + 5)
( + 7)
(-1)
(+9)
( + 5)
Specific trough dates corresponding to expansions beginning in—
Series
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average weekly hours, mfg
5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted)
8. Mfrs.1 new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries
12. Index of net business formation
20. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, 1982 dollars
29. Building permits, new private housing units
36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand
and on order in 1982 dollars (smoothed1)
99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed1)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators
940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
Nov. 1973
July 1980
9/82 ( - 2 )
9/82 ( - 2 )
10/82 (— 1)
5/82 ( — 6)
10/82 ( - 1 )
8/82 ( - 3 )
10/81 ( — 13)
7/80
5/80
5/80
6/80
7/80
5/80
4/80
1/83 ( + 2)
12/81 ( - 1 1 )
7/82 ( - 4 )
NSC
12/82 ( + 1)
3/82 ( — 8)
4/82 ( — 7)
8/80
6/80
NSC
5/80
5/80
5/80
4/80
( + 1)
12/82 ( + 1)
9/82 ( - 2 )
12/82 ( + 1)
10/82 ( - 1 )
12/82 ( + 1)
7/80
7/80
7/80
6/80
7/80
(0)
(0)
(0)
(0)
(-2)
(-2)
(-1)
(0)
(-2)
(-3)
(-1)
(-2)
(-2)
(-2)
(-3)
(-D
(0)
7/83 ( + 8 )
1/84 ( + 1 4 )
1/81 (+6)
1/81 (+6)
NA
7/83 ( + 8 )
10/83 ( + 11)
NSC
10/83 ( + 11)
7/81 ( + 12)
8/80 ( + 1)
3/81 ( + 8)
NSC
4/81 ( + 9)
Mar. 1975
Nov. 1970
3/75
(0)
3/75
(0)
3/75
(0)
2/75 (-1)
2/75 (-D
12/75 ( + 9)
3/75
(0)
9/70
10/70
11/70
12/70
8/70
10/70
1/70
4/75
1/75
12/74
1/75
3/75
2/75
3/75
3/70
1/71
6/70
4/70
10/70
10/70
11/70
( + 1)
(-2)
(-3)
(-2)
(0)
(-1)
(0)
4/75 ( + 1)
2/75 (-D
3/75
(0)
(0)
3/75
3/75
(0)
1/76 ( + 10)
11/78 ( + 44)
8/78
4/77
4/77
2/76
4/76
( + 41)
( + 25)
( + 25)
( + 11)
( + 13)
11/70
NSC
11/70
11/70
11/70
(-2)
(-1)
(0)
( + 1)
(-3)
(-1)
(-10)
(-8)
( + 2)
(-5)
(-7)
(-1)
(-1)
(0)
Feb.
12/60
2/61
1/61
3/60
1/61
3/61
12/60
2/61
8/60
10/60
NSC
4/61
12/60
12/60
1961
(-2)
(0)
(-1)
(-11)
(-1)
( + 1)
(-2)
(0)
(-6)
(-4)
( + 2)
(-2)
(-2)
Apr. 1958
4/58
CO)
4/58
(0)
4/58
(0)
12/57 (-4)
4/58
(0)
3/58 (-1)
2/58 (-2)
4/54
9/54
10/53
12/53
3/54
3/54
9/53
3/58
11/57
12/57
1/58
2/58
2/58
12/57
11/53
NSC
9/53
NSC
12/53
11/53
1/54
(-6)
8/54
4/54
4/54
12/53
8/54
( + 3)
(-1)
(-5)
(-4)
(-3)
(-2)
(-2)
(-4)
(0)
(0)
(0)
2/61
(0)
12/60 (-2)
2/61
(0)
1/61 (-1)
2/61
(0)
6/72 ( + 19)
2/73 ( + 27)
7/61 ( + 5)
4/62 ( + 14)
10/58 ( + 6)
5/59 ( + 13)
9/73 ( + 34)
3/72 ( + 16)
1/72 ( + 14)
NSC
2/72 ( + 15)
12/61 ( + 10)
11/65 ( + 57)
NSC
11/61 ( + 9)
11/61 ( + 9)
4/59 ( + 12)
8/58 ( + 4)
8/58 ( + 4)
11/58 ( + 7)
8/58 ( + 4)
(0)
May 1954
5/58 ( + 1)
4/58 (0)
4/58 (0)
4/58 (0)
4/58 (0)
(-1)
( + 4)
(-7)
(-5)
( = 2)
(-2)
(-8)
(-8)
( = 5)
(-6)
(-4)
(-1)
(-1)
(-5)
( + 3)
5/55 ( + 12)
4/55 ( + 11)
6/55
7/55
8/54
11/54
4/55
( + 13)
( + 14)
( + 3)
( + 6)
( + 11)
NOTE: Specific peak and trough dates mark the cyclical turning points in individual series; reference peak and trough dates mark the cyclical turning points in overall business activity. For the major
composite indexes and their components, this table lists the specific peaks and troughs corresponding to the last seven business cycles. The leads ( —) or tags ( + ) of the specific dates in relation
to the reference dates are shown in parentheses (in months). These specific dates should not be considered absolute; individual analysts may prefer alternative turning points for some series. See
MEASURING BUSINESS CYCLES by Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell (National Bureau of Economic Research, 1946) for detailed information on the selection of specific peaks and troughs.
NA, not available. This indicates that data necessary to determine a turning point are not available.
NSC, no specific cycle. This indicates that no specific turning point corresponding to the indicated reference date is discernible.
1
This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
105
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
III III III III
Foreign currency per U.S. dollar
Year
and
month
Japan
(Yen)
West
Germany
(D. mark)
France
(Franc)
United
Kingdom
(Pound)
3.1706
3.3025
3.2982
3.0946
3.1093
3.0636
2.9083
2.7937
2.8381
2.6446
2.5954
2.5122
9.7036
10.0933
10.0776
9.4427
9.4829
9.3414
8.8513
8.5323
8.6599
8.0641
7.9095
7.6849
0.8872
0.9148
0.8887
0.8080
0.8011
0.7808
0.7243
0.7225
0.7330
0.7035
0.6946
0.6922
III III III III III III
1
VJ \r
1
\^
254.18
260.48
257.92
251.84
251.73
248.84
241.14
237.46
236.53
214.68
204.07
202.79
\
rA
\
/
V
2.4384
2.3317
2.2752
2.2732
2.2277
2.2337
2.1517
2.0621
2.0415
2
1.9939
0.7020
0.6994
0.6815
0.6673
0.6574
0.6629
0.6635
0.6729
0.6804
2
0.6983
7.4821
7.1575
6.9964
7.2060
7.0967
7.1208
6.9323
6.7215
6.6835
2
6.5296
Foreign currency per U.S. dollar
\ \A J*^ \
Italy
(Lira)
Canada
(Dollar)
^ >
1,948.76
2,042.00
2,078.50
1,975.89
1,984.45
1,953.92
[
t
A
V
sT
r
\
J
dollar
Jf
(March 1973=100)
1
152.83
158.43
158.14
149.56
149.92
147.71
1,873.51
1,903.42
1,785.43
1,753.72
1,713.50
1,663.14
1,588.21
1,548.43
1,559.45
1,528.50
1,533.10
1,478.31
1,420.33
1,410.23
=1,380.03
1 .4070
1 .4043
1 .4009
1.3879
1 .3757
1 .3899
1 .3808
1.3885
1 .3872
2
1 .3884
123.65
118.77
116,05
115.67
113.27
113.77
110.38
107.50
107.15
2
106.02
.In 1 v
UU I jf .
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
1986
Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
m
/
>.
J
/
10
9
8
\
f
7
!E
EE
JV
V
j
J
A,
(J
\
/
1600
1600
1400
r
EE
106
1200
1000
f
A7
800
1.8
Canada (dollar)
1.4
1.2
1.0
y\
ixchange value of the U.S. dollar
(index: March 1973 = 100)
w
III Jli III
*\ V
•^^^
A
II III III III II
/
A
||
160
EE
s
140
120
100
60
III III III III III
73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86
This index is the weighted-average exchange value of the U.S. dollar against the currencies of the other G-10 countries
plus Switzerland. Weights are the 1972-76 global trade of each of the 10 countries. For a description of this index, see
the August 1978 FEDEBAL RESERVE BULLETIN (p. 700).
z
Average for October 1 through 24.
0.7
2000
m
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
5
0.9
0.8
0.5
Italy (lira)
J
6
0.6
\
137,55
139.14
130.71
128.08
125.80
2.8
2.0
\
A
*v
JLHU • 3 t
l
140
2.4
V
France (franc)
m e u .1o .
1 .3240
1 .3547
1 .3840
1 .3658
1 .3756
1 .3676
I .3526
1 13575
1 .3703
1 .3667
1 .3765
1 .3954
220
180
\
1985
Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
[K
/
A
w
Exchange value
0r
EE
3.2
United Kingdom (pound)
Year
and
month
260
Zest G erma ny (d . mark)
V
199.89
184.85
178.69
175.09
167.03
167.54
158.61
154.18
154.73
2
155.06
300
V
1986
Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
1
Japan (ven)
1985
Jan..
Feb..
Mar..
Apr..
May..
June.
July.
Aug..
Sept.
Oct..
Nov..
Dec.
Ratio scale
Foreign currency per U.S. dollar—
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident and Lagging Composite Indexes
Basic data
Series title
(and unit of measure)
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). .
5, Average weekly initial claims for
unemployment 1 insurance, State programs1 (thous.). . .
8. Mfrs. new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer
goods and materials industries (bil. dol.). .
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving slower deliveries (percent) . . . .
12. Net business formation
(index: 1967=100)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1932 dollars (bil. dol.)
29. New private housing units authorized by
local building permits (index: 1967=100). . .
36. Change in inventories2 on hand and on order in
1982 dol., smoothed (ann. rate, bil. dol.) .
99. Change in2 sensitive materials prices,
smoothed (percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
(bil. dol.)
111. Change in business and consumer credit
outstanding (ann. rate, percent). . . . . . . .
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators3
(index: 1967=100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thous.)
51. Personal income less transfer payments in
1982 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
47. Industrial production
(index: 1977=100) .
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982
dollars (mil. dol.)
920. Composite index
of 4 roughly coincident
indicators3 (index: 1967=100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment1
(weeks)
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories
to sales in 1982 dollars (ratio)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing-actual data as a percent of trend (percent) .
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
101.
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
in 1982 dollars ( m i l . d o l . )
. . .
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit
outstanding to personal income (percent). . .
930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 3
(index: 1967=100)
June
1986
July
1986
Net contribution to index
Aug.
1986
Sept.
1986
40.6
40 .6
40.8
p40.8
378
370
379
369
85.65
84.78
r85.25
P88.07
50
54
51
52
119.5
rl22.1
rl20.2
r32.36
r33.56
142.9
June
to
July
1986
0 .00
July
to
Aug.
1986
Aug.
to
Sept.
1986
0.15
0.00
0.06
-0.07
0.08
-0.05
0.03
0.18
0 .16
-0.12
0 .04
pl21.3
0.30
-0.22
0.14
r32.26
P33.95
0.08
-0.09
0.12
140.3
133.4
127 . 8
-0 .05
-0.15
-0 .14
r-4.32
r - 1 1 .10
p-3.92
NA
0 .17
NA
r0.22
0.46
-0.18
-0.53
0.09
-0.25
-0.15
245.30
240 .18
245.00
238.27
-0.13
0.12
-0.19
r2 ,357.5
2 , 3 8 1 .8
r2,399.7
p2,406.5
0.33
0 .24
r7.3
r6.4
P7.9
0.21
-0.05
0.09
r l 7 7 .7
179.5
rl79.3
P180.1
1 .01
-0.11
0.45
99,843
r!00,105
rl00,261
pl00,368
0 .22
0.13
2,609.9
r2,609.8
r2,612.8
p 2 , 6 0 7 .3
0.00
0 .06
-0.14
124.2
rl24.9
rl25.1
P125.3
0 .16
0 .04
0.06
415,467
r420,455
P421,147
0 .26
0.04
r l 6 3 .7
rl64.5
rl64.6
pl64.4
0.49
0.06
-0.12
15.2
15.0
15.8
15.6
0 .10
-0.37
0.13
1 .56
r l .54
pi.54
-0 . 2 6
0.00
r 8 1 .3
80.4
80 .4
p79.7
-0.33
0 .00
-0 . 3 8
8.50
8 .16
7.90
7.50
-0.24
-0 .18
-0.41
r337,455
r339,310
r344,004
p345,020
0 .14
0.36
0.11
16.30
16.41
pl6.48
NA
0.42
0.27
13 2 . 2
r l 3 2 .0
r l 3 2 .1
p l 3 1 .4
-0.15
0 .08
NA
NA
-0.16
0 .10
0 .11
NA
NA
NA
-0.53
NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. I t is
computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components
and dividing that result by the index standardization f a c t o r . See the February 1983 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 108-109) or
the 1984 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 67-68) for the weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, p r e l i m i nary, r, revised, e, estimated.
1
This series is inverted in computing the composite index; i . e . , a decrease in t h i s series is considered an upward movement.
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
3
Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment f a c t o r . ^ T h e trend adjustment factor
for the leading index is 0.139; for the coincident index, -0.175; for the lagging index, 0.018.
2
107
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
MIM jMMI|IMII|IIIIMIIMI|IMII|MIM|IMIMMMI|MM
DeviActual
ations
data
for
from
reference current
peaks
cycle
57. Manufacturing and trade sales,
1982 dollars
Percent
+20
• 420,000
+ 12
nMMMIM|IMIMMIMMMMM|MI|IM|MIMIIf IMM
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
7/81
DATA YEAR
DeviActual
ations
data
from
for
specific current
troughs cycle
57. Manufacturing and trade sales,
1982 dollars
SERIES 57
MIL. DOL
34
35
36
12 .3 410406
11 .7 408035
12 .6 411388
9/85
10/85
11/85
37
38
39
40
12 .7
12 .7
12 .8
12 .4
411592
411824
412199
410592
12/85
1/86
2/86
3/86
41
42
43
44
15 .1
13 ,1
13 .7
15 ,1
420460
413038
415467
420455
4/86
5/86
6/86
7/86
15.3 421147
8/86
#440.000
• 400,000
+8
+4
• 380,000
• 420,000
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
DATA YEAR
TROUGH 10/82
#400,000
SERIES 57
MIL. DOL.
• 360,000
-4
• 340.000
• 320.000
Actual
data
91. Average duration of unemployment
(inverted)
Lg,Lg,Lg I
10
12
14
35
36
19 .9 410406
19 .2 408035
9/85
10/85
37
38
39
40
20 .2
20 .2
20 .3
20 .4
411388
411592
411824
412199
11/85
12/85
1/86
2/86
41
42
43
44
19 .9
22 .8
20 .6
21 .3
410592
420460
413038
415467
3/86
4/86
5/86
6/86
-
45
46
22.8 420455
23.0 421147
7/86
8/86
-» 0
MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH
20
IHlll II MMIII MlllllllIM HIM II MINIMUM
-6
_1 22
CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
DATA YEAR
35
36
15.4
15.7
10/85
11/85
37
38
39
40
15.4
14.9
15.3
14.4 .
12/85
1/86
2/86
3/86
41
42
43
44
14.3
14,4
15.2
15.0
4/86
5/86
6/86
7/86
45
46
15.8
15.6
8/86
9/86
• 15
• 17
27
28
-5.8
-5.5
15.4
15.7
10/85
11/85
29
30
31
32
-5.8
-6,3
-5.9
-6.8
15.4
14.9
15.3
14.4
12/85
1/86
2/86
3/86
33
34
35
36
-6.9
-6.8
-6.0
-6.2
14.3
14.4
15.2
15.0
4/86
5/86
6/86
7/86
37
38
-5.4
-5.6
15.8
15.6
8/86
9/86
NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of the July 1986 issue.
• 340,000
Average duration of unemployment
(inverted)
• 19
SERIES 91
WEEKS
Months from reference troughs
108
4
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
DATA YEAR
TROUGH
7/83
0 + 6 +12+18 + 24+30+36+42+48
• 360,000
SERIES 91
WEEKS
16
18
• 380,000
-
o
- +2
-* +4
MI M M I I M I M ! I I M I I M I M I M M I [ I M I I I I M M I I M I ]
-6
0 + 6 +12+18+24+30+36 + 42+48
Months from specific troughs
• 21
• 23
• 25
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued
Deviations
from
reference
peaks
50. GNP in 1982 dollars
cicicl
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
'I
DEVIQRTRS.
FROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
AND
FROM
ACTUAL
REF.
TROUGH III./81
YEAR
DATA
8
8.7
9.3
1 0 . 4
11.0
13
14
15
1 2 . 0 3655.9
1/86
1 2 . 2 3661.4 11/86
1 2 . 8 3683.3 111/86
|«"»|"iii|iiii.|inii|n
CP,C,C I
3547.0
1/85
3567.6 1 1 / 8 5
3603.8
111/85
3622 .3
IV/85
Percent
Percent
+15
• 3.700
+ 1 0
• 3.600
• 3.500
DEVIQRTRS.
FROM ATIONS
SPEC.
FROM
TROUGH 1 1 1 / 8 2
• 3.400
• 3.300
- I 25
20
CURRENT QRTR.
AND
ACTUAL
YEAR
DATA
9
10
11
12
SERIES 5 0
ANN. RATI
B I L . DOL.
11.6
3520.4
IV/84
12 4
3547.0
1/85
13 .1
3567.6
11/85
14 2
3603.8
111/85
13
14
15
16
14
15
16
16
+5
Devi- Actual
data
ations
from
for
specific current
troughs cycle
50. GNP in 1982 dollars
SERIES 5 0
ANN. RATE
B I L . DOL.
7 . 8 3520.4
IV/84
9
10
11
12
I
• 3.700
15
#3,600
• 3,500
0
10
• 3.200
.8
9
1
8
3622.3
3655.9
3661.4
3683.3
IV/85
1/86
11/86
111/86
• 3.400
Median
5
-5
• 3,100
• 3.300
• 3*200
86. Nonresidehtial fixed investment, total
1982 dollars
86. Nqnresidential fixed investment,
total, 1982 dollars
Percent
+20
• 470
+15
QRTRS.
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT
REF.
FROM
ACTUAL
TROUGH 111/81
DATA
• 450
+10
8
C,Lg,C
QRTR.
AND
YEAR
• 470
SERIES 8 6
ANN. RATE
B I L . DOL.
1 1 . 1 447.6
IV/84
1/83
• 450
• 430
+5
• 410
• 390
9
10
11
12
9.9
15.0
15,0
18.4
442.7
1/85
463.0 1 1 / 8 5
463.1 111/85
476.9
IV/85
13
14
15
13.7
13.4
13.5
457.8
1/86
456.8 1 1 / 8 6
4 5 7 . 1 111/86
• 430
-20
• 370
-10
QRTRS.
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
SPEC.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
1/83
DATA
YEAR
• 350
-15
7
8
Illllllllll Illllllllll l i l l l l l l l l l l l l M M I I H I M i l l M i l l
-6
SERIES 8 6
ANN. RATE
B I L . DOL.
3 1 . 0 447.6
IV/84
2 9 . 6 442.7
1/85
9
10
11
12
3
3
3
3
13
33.7
33.8
14
5
5
9
4
.
.
.
.
5
6
6
0
456.8
457.1
Months from reference troughs
11/86
111/86
15
-
10
• 390
» 370
463.0 1 1 / 8 5
463.1 111/85
476.9
IV/85
457.8
1/86
0 + 6 + 1 2 + 18 + 24+30+36+42+48
-
• 410
• 350
-I 0
iiiiiliiiiiliiiii|iiiiilinn|iiiii|fni|[|^n)iiin
-6
0 + 6 +12+18+24+30+36+42+48
Months from specific troughs
NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of the July 1986 issue.
109
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources ot Series," following this index)
Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Consumer sentiment, index
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl.
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
...
New orders, manufacturing, 01.
Plant and equipment expenditures, constant dollars
Plant and equipment expenditures, current dollars
Plant and equipment expenditures, Dl
Prices, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, retail trade, Dl
Prices, wholesale trade, Dl. . .
Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl,
Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl.
Automobiles
Imports of automobiles and parts
Personal consumption expenditures
Balance of payments—See International transactions.
Bank loans—See Business Loans.
Bank rates—See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
Bonds—See Interest rates.
Borrowing—See Credit.
Budget—See Government.
Building—See Construction,
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, industrial production
„
Business expenditures—See Investment, capital.
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation, index
Business incorporations
Business inventories—See Inventories.
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Business saving
C
Canada—See International comparisons
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing
Materials
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
Newly approved
.,
Newly approved, 01
.,
Capital equipment, producer price index
Capital investment—See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
,
Civilian labor force See also Employment.
Employment .
...
Employment as percent ot population
Labor force
.
.
...
Unemployed
Coincident indicators, four
Composite index
. . ,,
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
.
.
....
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded
Commercial and industrial loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Compensation—See also Income.
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
' business sector
Compensation ot employees
Compensation ol employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Four coinciders, index
Four coinciders, rate of change
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
Six (aggers, index
Six laggers, rate of change
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Money and financial flows
Profitability
Twelve leaders, index
Twelve leaders, rate of change
See notes at end of index.
110
Current issue
(page numbers)
number Charts Tables
$eries
604
56
Historical
data
(issue date)
12/85
58
974
975
971
100
61
970
976
978
977
972
973
22
38
38
38
24
24
38
38
38
38
38
38
65
76
76
76
67
67
76
76
76
76
76
76
11/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
5/86
5/86
11/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
616
55
56
22
92
65
12/85
10/86
93
94
33
33
Series
description
(*)
72
72
20
37
37
37
"ii
23
37
37
37
37
37
56
39
35
35
4/85
4/85
29
76
13,25
24
67
67
6/86
8/85
24
12
14
12
13
33
12,23
23
72
65
65
12/85
6/86
6/86
34
21
21
101 15,35
72
35
112
32
295
46
73
73
71
82
6/86
6/86
6/86
5/86
32
32
32
26
82
84
20
20
64
64
8/85
8/85
14
14
97
11
965
333
24
24
37
48
66
66
75
86
2/85
2/85
10/86
7/86
22
22
22
51
914
35
34
11
29
29
60
70
70
1/86
10/86
10/86
5
26
26
89
62
89
62.89
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
9
9
9
9
60
5
74"
60
66
9/85
9/85
1/86
1/86
10/85
101 15,35
72
35
112
32
73
73
71
6/86
6/86
6/86
32
32
32
345
280
49
45
87
82
10/86
3/8G
46
46
64
30,47
70,83
10/86
442
51
90
17
441
51
37 18,51
920
920c
951
940
9
10
39
36
11
23
•5
5
21
.
46
346
49
88
10/86
340
49
87
8/86
5
341
348
349
49
50
50
87
88
88
8/86
9/85
9/85
5
53
53
53
19
920
920c
940
10
39
11
60
930
930c
10
39
914
915
917
916
910
910c
11
11
11
11
10
39
46
9/86
9/85
9/85
1/86
5
60
9/85
9/85
5
60
60
60
60
60
1/86
1/86
1/86
1/86
9/85
9/85
5
5
5
5
5
60'
5
Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables
Scrips titlP
(See completeTtles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and
industrial buildings
..
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales
Gross private fixed investment
[presidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
[presidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Housing starts
Consumer finished goods, producer price index
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures—See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contract awards, Defense Department
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits—See Profits.
Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Borrowing, total private
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars .
...
Loans outstanding, net change
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
. .
Net change
. . .
Ratio to personal income . .
..
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rrte
Credit outstanding, percent change
Mortgage debt, net change .
Crude and intermediate materials, change in
producer prices
....
Crude materials, producer price i n d e x . . .
..
D
Debt-See Credit.
Defense and space equipment, industrial production
Defense Department
Gross obligations incurred
. .
Gross unpaid obligations.
. .
Net outlays.
Personnel, civilian
.
.
Personnel, military
. . .
Prime contract awards
.
Defense products
Inventories, manufacturers'
New orders, manufacturers'
Shipments, manufacturers'
Unfilled orders, manufacturers1
..
Defense products industries, employment
Defense purchases, goods and services
Defense purchases, percent of GNP
Deficit—See Government.
Deflators—See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Deliveries, vendor performance
.
Diffusion indexes
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
.
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial production
.
.
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators .
..
.
.
Leading indicators
.
.
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components
New orders, manufacturing
.
..
. . .
Plant and equipment expenditures
....
Profits, manufacturing
.
Profits, manufacturing and trade
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Raw industrials, spot market prices, components
Sales, manufacturing and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing
Selling prices, retail trade
...
,. .
..
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Workweek, manufacturing ..
.
...
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Disposable personal income- -See income
6
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(*)
29
13,25
67
9
69
23
24
66
67
10/85
8/86
21
17
86
248
87
89
249
28
334
8
75
25
47
25
25
47
25
48
12,21
22
67
83
67
67
83
67
86
64
65
10/86
3/86
10/86
10/86
3/86
6/86
7/86
5/86
8/85
40
40
40
40
40
24
51
15
12
66
113
95
39
35
32
15,35
33
73
72
73
72
6/86
6/86
9/86
7/85
33
33
33
34
320
322
58
49
49
22
84,95
34
65
8/86
8/36
11/85
49
49
20
525
53
90
12/85
55
20
12,23
66
5/86
21
10
116
23
34
66
73
5/86
9/85
21
35
110
32
72
10/86
101
72
112
15,35
35
32
73
73
71
6/86
6/86
6/86
32
32
32
6
113
95
39
Ill
33
35
32
15,35
33
13,32
32
73
72
73
72
72
71
6/86
6/86
9/86
7/85
8/86
9/86
33
33
33
34
31
31
98
331
28
48
69
85
6/86
7/86
51
50
557
54
91
8/85
517
543
580
578
577
525
53
53
54
55
55
53
90
90
91
91
91
90
11/85
12/85
12/85
5/86
10/85
12/85
55
55
56
56
56
55
559
548
588
561
570
564
565
54
53
54
54
55
55
55
91
90
91
91
91
91
91
7/85
7/85
7/85
7/85
8/86
10/86
10/86
17
15
17
15
5
43
43
39
32
33
12,21
72
64
7/85
1/86
34
17
' 965
951
974
963
966
37
36
38
36
37
10/86
1/86
12/85
9/86
8/85
22
5
37
5
12
962
975
952
950
964
36
38
36
36
37
1/85
12/85
1/86
1/86
7/85
"g
37
5
5
15
971
970
960
972
967
'38'
38
37
38
37
12/85
11/85
12/85
12/85
1/86
37
23
37
37
25
973
976
978
977
968
961
'38*
38
38
38
37
36
75
74
76
74
75
78
74
76
74
74
75
77
76
76
75
76
75
79
76
76
76
76
75
74
77
12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
7/85
8/86
'37
37
37
37
25
5
6/86
•
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Current issue
Series (page n u m b e r s >
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(•)
E
Earnings—See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Civilian labor force
Defense Department personnel, civilian
Defense Department personnel, military
Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
Rate of change
.
Total
Employees in goods-producing industries
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 01
Employment, civilian
.
Employment, defense products industries . . .
Employment, ratio to population ....
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers ..
...
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl
Overtime hours, manufacturing
Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Unemployed, females 20 years and over. .
, .,
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment, civilian
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured
Unemployment rate, total
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Workweek, manufacturing, Dl ..
Equipment—See Investment, capital.
Exports-See International transactions.
441
578
577
51
55
55
48c
48
40
974
41
963
442
570
90
46
60
5
962
21
453
452
451
448
42
446
445
447
444
91
37
44
45
43
1
39
17
17
38
14,17
36
51
55
17
16
16
12,16
36
16
51
51
51
51
17
51
51
51
51
15,18
18,51
18
18
18
12,16
961
'36'
89
91
91
'ei'
62
76
62
74
89
91
62
61
61
61
74
61
89
89
89
89
62
89
89
89
89
62
62,89
62
62
62
61
77
74
4/86
5/86
10/85
9
56
56
9/86
9/86
8/86
12/85
8/86
9/86
4/86
8/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
1/85
1/85
8/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
8/86
"5
5
37
5
5
9
5
9
9
9
8
8
5
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
9
5
8/86
5
F
Federal funds rate
Federal Government-See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows. Cl
Fixed investment—See Investment, capital.
Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic
business product
Food—See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade—See International transactions.
France—See International comparisons.
Free reserves
G
Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense
National defense, percent of GNP
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Gross domestic business product, fixed-weigh ted
price index
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars
....
....
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP. constant dollars, percent changes
GNP, current dollars
GNP. current dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply Ml
Goods output in constant dollars ..
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic investment—See Investment, capital.
H
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Hours, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Average weekly hours, components
Average weekly hours, Dl
Average weekly overtime
119
34
72
9/85
94
213
917
33
40
11
72
80
60
4/85
10/86
1/86
311
48
84
10/86
93
33
72
4/85
35
38
5
49
20
63
10/86
502
501
500
512
511
510
298
52
52
52
52
52
52
46
90
90
90
90
90
90
83
10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
5/86
53
53
53
53
53
53
48
263
262
265
564
565
267
266
268
261
260
43
43
47
55
55
43
43
47
43
43
81
81
83
91
91
81
81
83
81
81
3/86
3/86
3/86
10/86
10/86
3/86
3/86
3/86
3/86
3/86
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
311
68
48
30
84
70
10/86
10/86
49
28
50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107
49
310
217
3,40
31
20
48
40
63,80
80
80
80
80
80
71
63
84
80
10/86
10/86
10/86
10/8G
10/86
10/86
8/86
10/86
10/86
10/86
38
38
38
38
38
38
30
14
38
38
46
60
16
16
61
61
4/86
4/86
9
9
1
2,16
8/86
5
961
21
36
16
61
77
74
61
8/86
8/86
5
5
39'
40
• •
•
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorizedby local building permits
Residential GPDI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP
I
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Imports—See International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation o! employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj ".
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita,
constant dollars
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
lnterest.net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars
Rate of change
Total
Personal income, ratio to money supply M2
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
:
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial commodities, producer price index
Industrial production—See also International comparisons.
Business equipment
Consumer goods
Defense and space equipment
Durable manufactures
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total, components
Total, Dl
Total, rate of change
Industrials, raw, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Installment credit—See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Average weekly initial claims
..
Average weekly initial claims, Dl
..
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest, net
.
Interest, net, percent of national income
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yields
Federalfunds rate
.
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
.
Prime rate charged by banks
.
.
Treasury bill rate
.
. .
.
Treasury bond yields
. .
.
Intermediate materials, producer price index
".
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada ..
. 7
France
. .
Italy
Japan
. .
..
United Kingdom
..
. . . .
United States.
. . . .
West Germany
. .
. .
Industrial production
Canada
. .
..
France
. .
fjT
TS
Series {m* n u m D e r s J
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
28
29
89
249
25
13,25
25
47
67
67
67
83
6/86
6/86
10/86
3/86
310
48
84
10/86
345
280
49
45
87
82
10/86
3/86
Series
description
(*)
24
24
40
40
46
46
64
30,47
70,83
10/86
46
346
95
286
49
15,35
45
88
73
82
10/86
9/86
,3/86
46
33
26
287
225
224
47
40
40
83
80
80
3/86
10/86
10/86
26
11
11
10/86
227
40
80
340
49
87
341
652
651
288
289
220
52
223
49
57
57
45
47
45
19
40
87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63
8/86
8/86
8/86
3/86
3/86
10/86
9/86
9/86
5
57
57
47
47
46
11
11
51c
51
108
282
39
14,19
31
45
63
71
82
9/86
9/86
9/86
3/86
30
4?
283
284
47
45
83
82
3/86
3/86
47
47
285
348
349
47
50
50
83
88
88
3/86
9/85
9/85
47
53
53
53
13
335
19
23
48
63
65
85
9/86
6/86
7/86
11
21
51
8/85
8/85
8/85
8/85
8/85
8/85
12
12
13
12
12
12
8/85
11/85
"n
1/86
1/86
25
25
76
24
75
22
557
54
73
20
74
20
47 14,20,58
67
65
91
63
63
63,94
78
75
ii
966
47c
37
39
967
23
37
28
79
75
69
5
962
45
288
289
12,16
36
18
45
47
61
74
62
82
83
1/85
1/85
4/86
3/86
3/86
8
8
8
47
47
67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
332
35
34
34
34
34
35
34
34
48
73
73
72
73
73
73
72
73
86
12/85
9/85
9/85
9/85
9/85
6/85
9/85
9/85
7/86
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
50
3 3
736
737
738
732
320
735
59
59
59
59
59
49
59
96
95
96
95
95
84,95
95
6/85
6/85
6/85
6/85
6/85
8/86
6/85
60
61
61
61
60
49
61
723
726
58
58
94
94
Italy
727
58
94
Japan
.
.
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom..
United States
West Germany
728
58
721
58
722
58
47 14,20,58
725
58
10/85
10/85
9/86
10/85
10/85
10/85
8/85
10/85
59
59
59
59
58
58
12
59
94
94
94
63,94
94
See notes at end of index.
111
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Cu rent issue
'
Series (page ntjmbers)
number Charts Tables
S e r j e s tj(| e
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources ol Series." following this index)
International comparisons-Continued
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
Series
description
<*)
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
11/85
63
63
63
63
63
25
63
743
746
747
748
742
59
59
59
59
59
19
745
59
59
96
96
96
96
96
96
96
667
622
602
.
618
604
256
252
668
606
612
620
616
. 6 6 9
257
253
614
652
651
57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57
93
93
92
93
92
82
82
93
92
92
93
92
93
82
82
92
93
93
8/86
8/86
12/85
8/86
12/85
3/86
3/86
8/86
12/85
12/85
8/86
12/85
8/86
3/86
3/86
12/85
8/86
8/86
57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57
255
44
82
3/86
44
250
251
44
47
82
83
3/86
3/86
44
44
68,81
81
83
91
68
68
60
68
68
68
76
9/86
3/86
3/86
7/85
6/85
10/85
1/86
10/85
6/85'
10/85
12/85
40
40
40
17
17
17
5
17
17
17
37
36 13,26
68
9/86
17
78
68
6/85
17
United States
West Germany
international transactions
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, excluding military aid
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, constant dollars
Exports of goods and services, current dollars
Exports oi goods and services, excluding military
Exports ol nonelectrical machinery
.
Imports, general
..
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services
. . .
Imports of goods and services, constant dollars
Imports of goods and services, current dollars
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
.,.
Net exports of goods and services,
constant dollars
,
Net exports of goods and services,
current dollars
Net exports of goods and services, percent of GNP
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories, change, percent of GNP
Defense products, manufacturers'
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Inventories to sales ratto, manufacturing and trade
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade, book value
Manufacturing and trade, change in book value
Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade, 01
Manufacturing and trade, on hand and
on order, change
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers'
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers', change
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Business inventories, change—See Inventories.
Fixed investment, constant dollars
Fixed investment, current dollars
Nonresidential, constant dollars
.
Nonresidential, percent o* GNP
Nonresidential producers' durable equipment,
constant dollars
.
.
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars .
Residential, percent of GNP.
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
New orders, nondefense capital goods,
constant dollars
New orders, nondeiense capita) goods,
current dollars
Plant and equipment
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business, Dl
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Italy—See International comparisons.
Historical
data
(issue date)
30
26,42
245 42
247 47
559 54
65
27
77 15,27
915 11
71
27
31
26
70
27
975 38
•
.
.
27
38
26
68
6/85
17
97
11
965
914
9
24
24
37
11
23
66
66
75
60
66
2/85
2/85
10/86
1/86
10/85
22
22
22
5
21
69
24
67
243
242
86
248
42
42
25
47
81
81
67
83
3/86
3/86
10/86
3/86
.40
40
40
40
88
87
89
249
241
240
25
25
25
47
42
42
67
67
67
83
81
81
10/86
10/86
10/86
3/86
3/86
3/86
40
40
40
40
40
40
27
23
66
5/86
15
24
23
66
5/86
15
20 12,23
10
23
100 24
61
24
970 38
66
66
67
67
76
5/86
5/86
5/86
5/86
11/85
21
21
23
23
652
651
93
93
8/86
8/86
57
57
57
57
J
Japan—See International comparisons.
L
Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output, business sector
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Labor force—See Employment.
Lagging indicators, six
68
63
30
30
70
70
10/86
8/86
28
28
62
62
26
30
15
29
70
70
70
9/86
9/86
8/86
28
28
28
9/85
9/85
1/86
Composite index
930
10
60
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
930c
952
39
36
74
See notes at end of index.
112
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Leading indicators, twelve
Composite index
. .
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets, change in total
Loans—See Credit
(nZ^Z)
J
Series vp s
number Charts Tables
.
.
. .
.
.
.
M
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories, change
Materials, capacity utilization rate
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials prices—See Price indexes.
Merchandise trade—See International transactions.
Military-See Defense.
Money and financial flows, C(
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total...
.
.
Money supply M l , constant dollars
.
Money supply M l , percent changes .
Money supply M2, constant dollars
.
Money supply M2, percent changes
.
Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml
.
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 .
Mortgage debt, net change
.
.
Mortgage yields, secondary market
.
Municipal bond yields
N
National defense—See Defense.
National Government—See Government.
National income—See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense,
constant dollars
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
.
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars
Durable goods industries, current dollars.
.
Components.
Diffusion index
.
.
.
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
. .
Nonresidential fixed investment
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars ..
Structures, constant dollars
.
Total, constant dollars .
.
.
Total, percent of GNP .
. .
.
O
Obligations incurred, Defense Department
Obligations unpaid, Defense Department
OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders—See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Outlays, Defense Department
Output—See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Goods output, constant dollars
,
Labor cost per unit of
Actual data
.
Actual data as percent of trend
.
Per hour, business sector .
.
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
.
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing
Ratio to capacity, materials . . . .
Overtime hours, manufacturing
. .
10
39
36
33
31
78
38
84
8
60
Series
description
(*)
74
72
71
9/85
9/85
1/86 12/85
6/86
27
68
6/85
17
26
20
12,21
68
64
64
6/85
8/85
5/86
17
14
15
, 917
11
60
1/86
5
104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117
31
31
31
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
73
73
6/86
6/86
6/86
6/86
6/86
8/86
9/86
9/86
9/85
9/85
29
29
29
30
29
30
30
31
35
35
5/86
5/86
5/86
15
15
15
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34
5
5
34
29
27
24
8
2,21
66
66
64
20
2,23
66
5/86
21
10
548
7
6
23
53
21
21
5/86
7/85
5/86
5/86
21
15
15
15
964
971
37'
38
66
90
64
64
77
75
76
7/85
12/85
15
37
88
87
86
248
25
25
25
47
67
67
67
83
10/86
10/86
10/86
3/86
40
40
40
40
517
543
721
53
53
58
90
90
94
11/85
12/85
10/85
55
55
58
580
54
91
12/85
56
23
23
49
20
63
10/86
14
62
62
370
358
82
84
21
30
15
50
50
20
20
16
70
70
88
88
64
64
61
9/86
9/86
10/86
10/86
8/85
8/85
8/86
28
28
52
52
14
14
5
453
452
451
51
51
51
89
89
89
4/86
4/86
4/86
9
9
9
55
233
232
238
. 236
239
. 2 3 7
.
231
. . 230
235
22
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47
65
80
80
81
81
81
81
80
80
83
10/86
3/86
3/86
3/86
3/86
3/86
3/86
3/86
3/86
3/86
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
292
293
614
46
46
56
82
83
92
5/86
5/86
12/85
48
48
56
.
. . .
.
910
910c
950
14
104
Historical
data
(issue date)
.
P
Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
.
.
Durable goods, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
..
Nondurable goods, current dollars
...
Services, constant dollars . . .
Services, current dollars
.
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars .
.
.
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income—See Income
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and petroleum products, imports
.
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Plant and equipment—See also Investment, capital.
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business, Dl
Population, civilian employment as percent of
Price indexes
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Deflators
Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Producer prices
All commodities
Capital equipment
Crude materials
Finished consumer goods
Industrial commodities
Intermediate materials
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Stock prices—See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
,
500 common stocks, DL.,
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime contract awards, Defense Department
Prime rate charged by banks .,
Producer prices—See Price indexes.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI
Production—See Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Productivity
Output per hour, business sector
Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
Profitability. Cl
Profits
Corporate profits after tax
Constant dollars
Current dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars
Corporate profits before tax
With IVA and CCAdj
:
With IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate
domestic income
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj '.
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of
national income
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Reserves, free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars
Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(*)
20
10
100
61
970
90
12,23
23
24
24
38
17
66
66
67
67
76
62
5/86
5/86
5/86
5/86
11/85
4/86
21
21
'23'
23
9
320
322
49
49
84,95
8/86
8/86
49
49
311
310
26
48
48
29
330
333
331
334
335
332
48
48
48
48
48
48
28
967
23
37
28
10/86
10/86
1/85
49
38
28
85
86
69
7/86
7/86
7/86
7/86
7/86
7/86
6/86
50
51
50
51
51
50
51
79
75
69
1/86
1/86
25
25
70
85
98
99
28
13,28
69
69
6/86
6/86
51
25
19
968
26
13,28
37
29
69
75
70
11/85
7/85
8/86
25
25
28
976
978
977
525
109
38
38
38
53
35
76
76
76
90
73
12/85
12/85
12/85
12/85
6/85
37
37
37
55
35
50
50
11
Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP
Residential structures—See Housing.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Salaries—See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
. Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars. .
Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl
Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade..
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving
Personal saving
Personal saying rate
Selling prices—See Prices, selling
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Shipments of defense products
Spot market prices, raw industrials
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
State and local government—See Government.
Stock prices—See also International comparisons
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl. ...
Surplus—See Government
Treasury bill rate.
Treasury bond yields....
10/86
370
358
916
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
10/86
10/86
1/86
52
52
5
18
28
69
16
80
79
28
29
29
69
69
69
9/86
9/86
9/86
9/86
26
26
26
26
286
287
972
960
15
916
22
45
47
38
37
29
11
29
82
83
76
75
70
60
69
3/86
3/86
12/85
12/85
11/85
1/86
9/86
26
26
37
37
27
5
26
81
282
29
45
70
'82
10/86
3/86
26
47
283
47
967
23
284
37
28
45
79
75
69
82
1/86
1/86
3/86
25
25
47
285
93
89
47
33
25
83
72
67
3/86
4/85
10/86
47
35
40
U
Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average .
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims for unemployment insurance.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance, D l ,
Number unemployed
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Full-time workers
Males 20 years and over.
Total unemployed
Unemployment rates
15 weeks and over
Insured unemployment.
Total
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products....
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change
United Kingdom—See International comparisons.
Velocity of money
GNP to money supply M l , ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio..
Vendor performance, slower deliveries
3/86
W
Wages and salaries—See Compensation.
West Germany—See International comparisons.
Wholesale (producer) prices—See Price indexes.
Workweek, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Components
Diffusion index
Current issue
Series tpage numbers)
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(•)
249
47
83
3/86
59
54
22
22
65
65
9/86
9/86
213
40
69
57
56
973
77
59
54
24
14,22
22
38
15,27
22
22
67
65
65
76
68
65
65
10/85
10/85
12/85
10/85
9/86
9/86
17
17
17
37
17
20
20
295
298
290
292
293
46
46
46
46
46
82
83
82
82
83
5/86
5/86
3/86
5/86
5/86
26
48
48
48
48
99
588
28
13,28
54
69
69
91
6/86
6/86
7/85
51
25
17
967
23
37
28
79
75
69
1/86
1/86
25
25
19
968
13,28
37
69
75
11/85
7/85
25
25
114
115
34
34
72
73
9/85
9/85
35
35
91
60
5
962
15,18
16
12,16
36
62
61
61
74
4/86
4/86
1/85
1/85
446
445
447
444
37
51
51
51
51
18,51
89
89
62,89
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
4/86
44
45
43
18
18
18
62
62
62
4/86
4/86
4/86
561
96
25
54
21
21
91
64
64
7/85
6/85
6/85
15
15
15
107
31
31
12,21
71
71
64
8/86
9/86
1/86
30
30
17
1
12,16
36'
61
77
74
8/86
961
20
20
10/86
8/86
NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment.
* The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears.
113
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this
report in which they appear. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect relationships or
order among the series. " M " following a series title
indicates monthly data; "Q" indicates quarterly data.
Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by
"EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below
are referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Following the source for each series is an indication of
the pages on which that series appears. The "Series
Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers
for each series.
I-A. Composite Indexes
910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators
(includes series 1, 5, 8, 12,19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99,
106,111) (M).-Soureel
(10,39,60)
914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60)
915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M) .-Source
1
(11,60)
916. Composite index of profitability (includes series
19,26,80) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)
917. Composite index of money and financial flows
(includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)
920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)
930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source
1
(10,39,60)
940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to
lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source
1
(11,60)
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
current dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis
(23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q) .—The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(12,23,65)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(23,65)
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3
(12,16,61,77)
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).—U.S. Department
of Labor, Employment and Training Administration;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(29,70)
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars (Q) .-Source
1
(29,70)
36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on
hand and on order in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(13,26,68)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun
& Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)
37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2 and Federal Trade
Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(29,70)
38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials
and supplies on hand and on order, book value
(M).-Source2
(26,68)
(18,51,62,89)
16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(28,69)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent
30 days and over (E0M).—American Bankers
Association
(33,72)
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars ( Q ) . ~
Source 1
(28,69)
40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M).-Source 3
(17,62)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—
Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source
3
(14,17,62)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(12,23,66)
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (M).-Source 3
(17,62)
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—
Source 3
(16,61)
22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total
corporate domestic income (Q)-Source 1 (29,69)
23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau,
Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981,
this series may not be reproduced without written
permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)
(28,69,79)
I-B. Cyclical Indicators
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).—
Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home
Loan Bank Board; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(32,71)
24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).-Source 2
(23,66)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3
413. Unemployment rate (M) .-Sou rce 3
(18,62)
44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks
and over (M).-Source 3
(18,62)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration
(18,62)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).-The Conference Board
(16,61)
47. Index of industrial production (M).-Source 4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
(M).-Source3
(17,39,61)
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(20,63)
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1982
dollars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
52. Personal income in 1982 dollars (M).-Sou rce 1
(29,70)
(19,63)
6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable
goods industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64,77)
27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(23,66)
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Source 1 (19,63)
7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods industries (M) .-Sources 1 and 2 (21,64)
28. New private housing units started (M).—Source
2
(25,67)
8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M).—Sources
1 and 2
(12,21,64)
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Source 2
(13,25,67)
(12,16,61)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(23,66)
114
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)
31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories,
book value (M).—Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management Association of Chicago
(12,21,64)
54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M) .-Sou rce
2
(22,65)
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
(Q).-Sourcel
(22,65)
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars
(M).-Sourcesland2
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
(M).-Sourcesland2
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M).—University
of Michigan, Survey Research Center
(22,65)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 2
(22,65)
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to
number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1,
3, and The Conference Board
(16,61)
88. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, producers' durable equipment ( Q ) . Source 1
(25,67)
61. New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in current dollars(Q).-Source 1
(24,67)
89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q),—Source 1
(25,67)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,30,70)
90- Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (M).-Sources 1 and 3
' (17,62)
63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).-Source
3
(30,70)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods, book
value (E0M).-Source2
(27,68)
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).—
Source 4
(35,73)
91
- Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).—
Source 3
(15,18,62)
(33,72)
- Free reserves (M).—Source 4
94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
93
(M).-Source4
(33,72)
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to
income (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Source2
(21,64)
I-C. Diffusion Indexes
950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components (M).-Source 1
(36,74)
951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).—Source 1
(36,74)
952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)
960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing-about
600 companies (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) , (35,75)
961. Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing
industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(36,74,77)
(35,73)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufac-
68. Labor cost jn current dollars per unit of gross
domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).-Source 1
(30,70)
turing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board
(24,66)
962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).—Source
1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and
Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(36,74)
98. Percent change in producer prices for 28 sensitive
crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1
and 3
(28,69)
963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries (M).—Source
3
(36,74)
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source
4
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (M).—Source
2
(24,67) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices (M).-Sources 1,
3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(13,28,69)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dolNew
plant
and
equipment
expenditures
by
business
lars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,68) 100.
in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(24,67)
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value
101
(EOM).-Sourcesland2
(27,68)
- Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982
dollars (M) — Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in curBank of New York
(15,35,73)
rent dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal
Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 (31,71)
102.
Reserve Bank of New York
(35,73)
104. Change in total liquid assets (M).-Sources 1 and
73. Index of industrial production, durable manufac4
(31,71)
tures (M).-Source4
(20,63)
Money supply M l in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
105.
74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manuand 4
(31,71)
factures (M).-Source 4
(20,63)
Money
supply
M2
in
1982
dollars
(M).—Sources
1
106.
75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods
and 4
(13,31,71)
(M).-Source 4
(22,65)
107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply M l
76. Index of industrial production, business equipment
(Q).-Sourcesland4
(31,71)
(M).-Source4
(24,67)
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).—
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in
Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(15,27,68)
109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source
78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies
4
(35,73)
on hand and on order, book value (EOM).—Source 11Q Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
2
(27,68)
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)
79. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
80.
81.
82.
84.
85.
86.
87.
m
964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35
durable goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2
. (37,75,77)
965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 1982 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).-The Conference Board
(37,75)
966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78)
967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity
Research Bureau, Inc.
(37,75,79)
968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks,
42-82 industries (M).—Source 1 and Standard &
Poor's Corporation
(37,75)
970. Diffusion index of expenditures for new plant and
equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, 22 industries
(Q).—Source 1
(38,76)
971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).--Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
(M).-Sources 1, 4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (13,32,72)
972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
Corporate profits after tax with inventory valua- 112. Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1, 4,
series may not be reproduced without written
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71)
tion and capital consumption adjustments in 1982
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(29,69) 113. Net change in consumer installment credit (M).—
973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and
Source 4
(32,72)
Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
inventory valuation and capital consumption adjust- 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
ments to total corporate domestic income (Q).—
bills (M).—Source 4
(34,72)
series may not be reproduced without written
Source 1
(29,70)
n 5
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)
Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (M).—
974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacSource 4
(20,64) u g Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
turing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Trea(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).—Source
sury
(34,73)
This series may not be reproduced without written
4
(20,64)
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).—The
117
Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4 (31,71)
'
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturGross private nonresidential fixed investment in 118 Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages ( M ) . ing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
, Federal Housing Administration
(34,73)
This series may not be reproduced without written
Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
1982 dollars, structures (Q)'.-Sdurce 1
(25,67) 119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4
(34,72)
115
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES—Continued
976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—
about 600 businessmen reporting ( Q ) . - D u n &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)
977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale tradeabout 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q).—Source 1
(42,81)
245. Change in business inventories in current dollars
(Q).-Sourcel
(42,81)
247. Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
248. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)
978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade-about
400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
249. Gross private residential fixed investment as a
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)
II—A. National Income and Product
251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
gross national product (Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
(47,83)
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(26,42,68,81)
252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
255. Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)
256. Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
213. Final sates in 1982 dollars (Q) .-Source 1
(40,80)
257. Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
(Q).—Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
260. Government purchases of goods and services in
220. National income in current dollars (Q).—Source
1
(Q).-Sourcel
(Q). -Source 1
(Q).-Source 1
(Q).-Source 1
(Q).-Source 1
current dollars (Q).—Source 1
(44,82)
(44,82)
(44,82)
(44,82)
(44,82)
(43,81)
289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).-Sourcel
(47,83)
290. Gross saving (Q).-Source 1
(46,82)
292. Personal saving (Q).—Source 1
(46,82)
293. Personal saving rate (Q).—Source 1
(46,83)
295. Business saving (Q).-Source 1
(46,82)
298. Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source 1
(46,83)
II—B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
310. Implicit price deflator for gross national product
(Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).—Source 1
(48,84)
320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers
(M).-Source3
(49,59,84,95)
322. Consumer price index for all urban consumers,
food (M).-Source 3
(49,84)
330. Producer price index, all commodities (M).—Source
3
(48,85)
331. Producer price index, crude materials for further
processing (M).—Source 3
(48,85)
332. Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).-Source 3
(48,86)
333. Producer price index, capital equipment (M).—
Source 3
(48,86)
334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source3
(48,86)
(45,82)
261. Government purchases of goods and services in
223. Personal income in current dollars (M).-Source
1
(40,63)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q) —
Source 1
(40,80)
263. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-
225. Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)
265. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser-
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
vices as a percent of gross national product (Q) .—
Source 1
(47,83)
230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and
231. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
267. State and local government purchases of goods and
232. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
268. State and local government purchases of goods and
346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,88)
services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Sourcel
(47,83)
348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
first year changes (Q).—Source 3
(50,88)
280. Compensation of employees (Q)-Source 1 (45,82)
282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
changes over life of contract (Q).-Source 3 (50,88)
capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source
358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,88)
233. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1
(41,80)
235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
238. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, nondurable goods (Q)-Source 1
(41,81)
239. Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, services (Q).—Source 1
(41,81)
240. Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
241. Gross private domestic investment in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Sourcel
(42,81)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
116
1982dollars (Q).-Soureel
vices in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
vices in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
1
(43,81)
(43,81)
(43,81)
(43,81)
(43,81)
(45,82)
283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments as a percent of
national income (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)
285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)
286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—
Source 1
(45,82)
287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a
percent of national income (Q) .-Source 1
(47,83)
288. Net interest (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)
335. Producer price index, industrial commodities
(M).-Source 3
(48,85)
340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural
payrolls (M).—Source 3
(49,87)
341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source3
(49,87)
345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(49,87)
370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business
sector (Q).-Source3
(49,88)
II—C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3
(18,51,62,89)
441. Civilian labor force (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
442. Civilian employment (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
(M).-Source3
(51,89)
445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
(M).-Source 3
(51,89)
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of
age (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
447. Number unemployed, full-time workers (M).—
Source 3
(51,89)
448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes
16-19 years of age (M)—Source 3
(51,89)
570. Employment, defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(55,91)
577. Defense Department military personnel on active
duty (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
578. Defense Department civilian personnel, direct Nre employment (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller),
Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for
Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
47. United States, index of industrial production ( M ) Source4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
320. United States, consumer price index for all urban
consumers (M).—Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)
722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M).-Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)
723. Canada, index of industrial production ( M ) . —
Statistics Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q). -Source
1
(52.90)
580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions
and military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of
Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense
(Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(54,91)
501. Federal Government receipts (Q).— Source 1
(52,90)
726. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)
588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(54 t 91)
502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)
727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lstituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)
I—E_ U.S. International Transactions
510. State and local government surplus or deficit ( Q ) . Source 1
(52,90)
728. Japan, index of industrial production (M) .-Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)
602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments ( M ) . -
511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)
604. Exports of domestic agricultural products ( M ) . Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
II—D. Government Activities
512. State and local government expenditures ( Q ) . Source 1
(52,90)
517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the
Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
525. Defense Department prime contract awards for work
performed in the United States (M).^U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of
Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters
Services, Directorate for Information Operations
and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).-fcS. Department of Defense,
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)
Source 2
(56,92)
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source
1\ seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
612. General imports (M).-Source 2
(56,92)
614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
(M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(56,92)
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M). -Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Soureel
(57r93)
620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1
*
(57,93)
622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1
(57,93)
651. Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)
(53,90)
652. Income on foreign investment in the United States
(Q).-Souree 1
(57,93)
557. Index of industrial production, defense and space
equipment (M) . - S o u rce 4
(54,91)
667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1
(57,93)
548, Manufacturers' new orders, defense products ( M ) —
Source 2
559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book
value (EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products
(EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q) . - S o u rce 1
(55,91)
565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Sou rce 1
(55,91)
668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
725. West Germany, index of industrial production ( M ) Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(58,94)
732. United Kingdom, consumer price index (M). Department of Employment (London); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
735. West Germany, consumer price index
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden);
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
ic Analysis
(M).—
percent
Econom(59,95)
736. France, consumer price index (M).—Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris);
percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(59,95)
737. Italy, consumer price index (M).—Istituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
738. Japan, consumer price index (W).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
742. united Kingdom, index of stock prices (M). -Central
Statistical Office (London)
(59,96)
743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Toronto Stock
Exchange (Toronto)
(59,96)
745. West Germany, index of stock prices ( M ) . —
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)
669. Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1
(57,93)
746. France, index of stock prices (M)-Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
II—F. International Comparisons
747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).-Banca d'ltalia
(Rome)
(59,96)
19. united States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)
(59,96)
748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Bank of Japan
(Tokyo)
(59,96)
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