Full text of Business Conditions Digest : October 1983
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Allan H. Young, Deputy Director
Charles A. Waite, Associate Director for
National Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor
This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes
Betty F. Tunstall—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)
The cooperation of government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources
at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting
of the following persons:
Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Norman Frumkin, Office of Management and Budget
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.
Annual subscription price: $55.00 domestic,
$68.75 foreign. Single copy price: $5.50 domestic, $6.90 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
available on request. Address correspondence
Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.
concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402, Make checks payable
to Superintendent of Documents.
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
New Features and Changes for This Issue
iii
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
,
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6
OCTOBER 1 9 8 3
Data Through September
Volume 23, Number 10
PART i.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Al
A2
A3
A4
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS
Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components
Chart
10
12
14
15
Table
60
—
—
—
Bl
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
16
19
21
23
26
28
31
61
63
64
65
68
69
71
Cl
C2
C3
DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change
36
—
39
74
77
—
The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department. Use of funds
for printing this periodical has been approved
by the Director of the Office of Management
and Budget through April 1, 1985.
BCD
PART II.
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
Al
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A8
NATIONAL INCOME
AND PRODUCT
GNP and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNP and National Income
Chart
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
Table
80
80
81
81
82
82
82
83
48
49
84
87
51
89
52
53
90
90
56
57
92
93
58
59
59
94
95
96
PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Bl
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices
PART 111. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (January 1981 issue)
B. Current Adjustment Factors
97
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
98
D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (July 1983 issue)
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (June 1983 issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
105
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
110
Titles and Sources of Series
114
Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230
NEW FEATURES
AND CH1ANGES
FOR Th S ISSUE
A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
Changes in this issue are as follows:
in composition of
indexes, etc.
1. The diffusion indexes based on anticipated business
expenditures for new plant and equipment (series 970b and
970c) have been revised for the period 1947 to date. These
revisions reflect the application of new seasonal adjustment
factors to the value of anticipated expenditures. (See "New
Features and Changes for This Issue" in the September 1983
issue of BCD.)
Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division.
2. Appendix C contains historical data for series 48,
50, 117-119, 200, 213, 217, 220, 224, 225, 227, 230-233, 235242, 500-502, and 510-512.
3. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series
1, 8, 30, 50, 910, and 920.
The November issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on December 5.
in
SIX BEA PROJECTS
FOR ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
A monthly report for analyzing
economic fluctuations over a short span of years.
This report brings together many of the economic time series most useful to business analysts and
forecasters. In the cyclical indicators section, each of about 110 business cycle indicators is assigned
a three-way timing classification according to its cyclical behavior at peaks, troughs, and all turns.
This section also includes important analytical measures, such as composite indexes of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators and selected diffusion indexes. A second section contains other important economic data on prices, wages, productivity, government and defense-related activities, U.S. international transactions, and international comparisons.
About 300 time series are shown in analytical graphs that help to evaluate business conditions and
prospects. Current data are shown in accompanying tables. Appendixes provide historical data,
seasonal adjustment factors, measures of variability, cyclical comparisons, and other useful information. A computer tape containing data for most of the series is available for purchase.
HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A reference volume con*
taining valuable background information for users of Business Conditions Digest.
This recurrent report provides descriptive and analytical information on the economic time series
presented monthly in Business Conditions Digest Included are series descriptions, historical
data, and measures of variability. For the cyclical indicators and composite indexes, special tables
show detailed scoring measures and average timing at cyclical peaks and troughs. Verbal and
algebraic explanations of the composite index methodology are also provided.
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH
A report for the study of economic
trends over a long span of years: 1860-1970.
This report provides a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy by presenting relevant
statistical time series in easy-to-foilow analytical charts and convenient data tables. It is a basic
research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students, bringing together in
one volume a complete statistical basis for the study of long-term economic trends. A computer tape
file of the time series included in the report is available for purchase.
COMPUTER PROGRAMS FOR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS The source
statements for FORTRAN IV programs used by BEA in its analysis of
time series are available on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL A D J U S T M E N T PROGRAMS—Two variants of the Census computer program
measure and analyze seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and irregular fluctuations. They are particularly
useful in analyzing economic fluctuations that take place within a year. The X-l 1 variant is used for
adjusting monthly data and the X-l 1Q for quarterly data. These programs make additive as well as
multiplicative adjustments and compute many summary and analytical measures.
INDEX PROGRAM—This program computes composite and diffusion indexes and summary
measures of the properties of each index.
TIME SERIES PROCESSOR—This program, through simple commands, performs a variety of
arithmetic, statistical, and manipulative operations on time series data.
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
A monthly report for analyzing
current economic developments.
This report provides a useful combination of current data for nearly 2,000 statistical series and
significant articles analyzing economic developments. These data and analyses include such areas as
the national income and product accounts, the balance of payments accounts, plant and equipment
expenditures, regional personal income, and the input-output accounts.
BUSINESS STATISTICS
For further information (including prices and ordering instructions) on any of these items,
please write to the Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C.
20230.
A biennial reference volume containing
statistical series reported currently in the Survey of Current Business.
This report provides historical data back to 1947 for nearly 2,600 time series. The series are accompanied by concise descriptions as to their composition, methods of compilation, comparability, revisions, and availability. Also listed are the names and addresses of organizations that provide the basic
data for the series.
IV
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report is organized into two major parts.
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
part I are also shown in part II to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data,
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government
and defense-related activities, and international
transactions and comparisons.
The two parts are further divided into sections
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
begin with 1956, but those for the composite
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two-panel
format which covers only the period since 1971.
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
shading which indicates periods of recession in
general business activity. The tables contain data
for only the last few years. The historical data for
the various time series are contained in the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
In addition to the charts and tables described
above, each issue contains a summary table which
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest. An index appears
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect precise
relationships or order. However, all series
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
the range 1 to 199.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday
adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)
It is the smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
MCD of 1.
The charts in this report generally include
centered MCD moving averages for those series
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
variation about the moving averages and to provide
observations for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates used
in this report are those designated by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They
mark the approximate dates when, according to
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor
the shading for recessions will be entered on the
charts until after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area
have been designated.
The historical reference turning dates are subject
to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed
as a result of revisions in important economic
time series. The dates shown in this publication
for the 1948-70 time period are those determined
by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated
turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980. and
1981-82.
Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Business cy les have been defined as sequences
of expansion nd contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive m jasures of production, employment,
income, and ade.,While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration ana intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehend ve review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are pased on the results of that study.
Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components
AH cyclical indicators have been evaluated according td six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
conform ty to business expansions and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
Novembel 1975 issues of BCD.)
The resulting
scores re ate to cyclical behavior of the series
during thp period 1947-70. This analysis produced
a new list of indicators classified by economic
process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
relating to section B.)
This information, particularly the scores relating
to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
selection of series to be included in the composite
indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
series rom many different economic-process
groups [and combine those with similar timing
behavio, , using their overall performance scores as
weights Because they use series of historically
tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
of duplication, composite indexes give more
reliable signals over time than do any of the
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the
1
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
\ ^
Economic
\Process
Cycllcal^v
Timing
N.
LEADING ( U
INDICATORS
(62 series)
ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(2 3 series)
LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(18 series)
TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
IU)
8 series)
II.
PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)
III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)
IV.
FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)
V.
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(17 series)
VII.
MONEY
AND CREDIT
(26 series)
Marginal
employment
adjustments
(6 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Capacity
utilization
(2 series)
New and
unfilled orders
and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption
(2 series)
Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)
Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profits and
profit
margins
(7 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)
Money flows
(3 series)
Real money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
output and
real Income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)
Consumption
and trade
(4 series)
Backlog of
investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business
Investment
expenditures
(5 series)
EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)
Duration of
unemployment
(2 series)
Business
investment
expenditures
(1 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Trade
(1 series)
Velocity of
money
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)
Business
Investment
commitments
(1 series)
Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)
1 nterest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding
debt
(3 series)
Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profit share
(1 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)
B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
\
\
Economic
\Process
II.
PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)
IV.
III.
CONSUMPTION, FIXED
TRADE,
CAPITAL
ORDERS, AND
INVESTMENT
DELIVERIES
(18 series)
(13 series)
CycllcalV
Timing
N.
EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)
Industrial
production
(1 series)
LE:ADING a.)
Marginal
employment
adjustments
(3 series)
New and unfilled
orders and
deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption
and trade
(4 series)
Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
Investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)
Marginal
employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)
Comprehensive
output and
real income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity
utilization
(2 series)
Consumption
and trade
(3 series)
Business
Investment
commitments
(1 series)
Unfilled orders
(1 series)
Business
Investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business
investment
expenditures
(6 series)
INDICATORS
(47 series)
ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)
LAGGING {Lg)
INDICATORS
(40 series)
TIMIiMG
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)
(1 series)
Marginal
employment
adjustments
(1 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
and duration
of
unemployment
(5 series)
V.
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
VI.
VII.
PRICES, COSTS, MONEY
AND PROFITS
AND CREDIT
(17 series)
(26 series)
Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(2 series)
Profits and
profit margins
(6 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)
Money flows
(2 series)
Real money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)
Profits
(2 series)
Money flow
(1 series)
Velocity of
money
(1 series)
Unit labor costs
and tabor share
(4 series)
Velocity of
money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(3 series)
inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
well-established differences in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through - h i at peaks and from -1 through
+ 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series are prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators,)
In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are five indexes based on leading indicators which
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include all 12
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident
indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
12 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at both peaks and
troughs, all components of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C,M and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the period since 1970
can be determined by inspection of the charts,
where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of
the NBER reference cycle chronology.
Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
This section covers 111 individual time series,
including the 22 indicators used in the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the
charts in the same manner as described above, but
this section includes series with different timing at
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19
series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the
indicators of this section by economic process and
cyclical timing is summarized in the two
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is
based on the observed behavior of the series at five
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,
August '57, Ap il '60, and December '69); crossclassification B on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 7 0 ) . Each tabulation
distinguishes slven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgr ps of the given economic process
with the given iming characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the itle. Complete information on how
individual indcators are classified by timing at
peaks, trough;,, and all turns, along with selected
measures/and scores, is provided in the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change
Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising), Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown Jfor the component series included in
each of thi three composite indexes and for the
component of some of the aggregate series shown
in section
Diffusio measures can be derived not only from
actual da but also from surveys of anticipations
or intenti ns. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
expectatio s for several operating variables are
presented along with the corresponding indexes
based on ictual data, as the last set of diffusion
series.
This section also records rates of change for the
three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
economii activity: GNP in constant dollars
(quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
rates of change for the same aggregates are
generally positively correlated, these two measures
present information about two related but distinct
aspects! of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measurfe the prevailing direction or scope of
change, while rates of change measure the degree
as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
at the (business cycle turns as well.
Part I I . OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
This part is divided into six sections which cover
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
measuring various aspects of economic activity.
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
or to selected foreign countries. The represented
variables include incomes, outputs, and
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity;
labor resources; government receipts,
expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few
key foreign countries.
Section A. National Income and Product
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the personal, business,
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
Section Al shows the gross national product,
final sales, and personal and disposable personal
income. The four major components of the gross
national product—personal consumption
expenditures, gross private domestic investment,
government purchases of goods and services, and
net exports of goods and services—are presented in
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
section A are presented in current as welt as
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita
series, The national income and product accounts,
briefly defined below, are described more fully in
the Survey of Current Business, Part I,
January 1976.
Gross national product (GNP) is the market
value of final goods and services produced by the
labor <ind property supplied by residents of the
United States, before deduction of allowances for
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the
most comprehensive measure of aggregate
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'
income, rental income of persons, dividends,
personal interest income, and transfer payments,
less personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving. It consists
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax
payments to government.
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings,
and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included.
Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
capital goods purchased by private business and Unemployment
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
This section contains measures of the civilian
in the physical volume of inventories held by
private business. The former include all private labor force and its major components; Total
purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
goods are also included.
Government purchases of goods and services of worker. Also included are data on participation
(A4) is the compensation of government employees rates for a few principal segments of the labor
and purchases from business and from abroad. It force.
excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
Section D. Government Activities
government, and subsidies. It includes gross
investment by government enterprises but excludes
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surtheir current outlays. It includes net purchases of plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
used goods and excludes sales and purchases of (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
land and financial assets.
government. Also shown is a selection of series
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports from the discontinued Defense
Indicators,
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part These series measure defense activities which
of the national production; imports are not, but are influence short-term changes in the national
included in the components of GNP and are economy. Included are series relating to
therefore deducted. More detail on U.S. obligations, contracts, orders, production,
international transactions is provided in section E. shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
National income (A6) is the incomes that These series are grouped according to the time at
originate in the production of goods and services which the activities they measure occur in the
attributable to labor and property supplied by defense order-production-delivery process. Series
residents of the United States. Thus, it measures measuring activities which usually precede prothe factor costs of the goods and services pro- duction, such as contract awards and new orders,
duced. It consists of the compensation of are classified as "advance measures of defense
employees, proprietors' income, rental income of activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
coincide with production, such as employment, and
Saving (A7) is the difference between income activities which usually follow production, such as
and expenditures during an accounting period. shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
Total gross saving includes personal saving, measures of defense activity."
business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
profits and capital consumption allowances), and Section E. U.S. International Transactions
government surplus or deficit.
This group includes monthly series on exports
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
major expenditure components of GNP (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
(consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as few selected components of these aggregates. Also
percentages of GNP, and the major income shown are the balances between receipts and
components of national income (compensation of expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as and investment income.
percentages of national income.
Section F. International Comparisons
Section 8. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
The important data on price movements include
the monthly consumer and producer price indexes
and their major components. Based largely on
these series are the quarterly price indexes from
the national income and product accounts, notably
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights
reflecting the changing proportions of different
expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are
presented for the period since 1971.
The group of series on wages and productivity
consists of data on average hourly earnings and
average hourly compensation (including earnings
and other benefits) in current and constant dollars,
output per hour of work in the business sector, and
rates of change for most of these measures.
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with which we have important trade
relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European
countries in the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1971) provide
important measures of the rates of inflation in the
major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
shown beginning in 1971) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.
Basic Data
Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)
Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)
Dotted line indicates anticipated data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).
Various scales are used to
Diffusion Indexes
tOO-i
Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.
Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.
Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A "
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.
Rates of Change
^XKKkSjf^dn^Y
Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.
Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.
Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3-or 4-quarter spans.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING-GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, o r -
2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where seriesiare listed numerically according to
series numbers within ^ach of the report's sections.
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for,Principal Indicators
Basic data'
Unit
of
measure
1
Series title and timing classification
Percent change
Annual average
2dQ
1983
3dQ
1983
July
to
Aug.
1983
Aug.
to
Sept.
1983
1st Q
to
2dQ
1983
1983
4.7
2.8
-3.4
6.3
2.5
-0.9
3.5
?dq
to
3dQ
1981
1982
1st Q
1983
140.9
146.0
122.4
119.3
136.8
136.3
123.0
110.9
147.8
134.1
115.1
116.6
154.7
137.8
111.2
123.9
159,0
141.3
110.2
128.2
158.2
140.7
109.8
128.1
158.7
140.4
110.8
126.7
160.2
142.7
110.0
129.7
0.3
-0.2
0.9
-1.1
0.9
1.6
-0.7
2.4
93.0
107.7
100.9
97.9
122.7
NA
104.3
97.2
93.7
122.8
NA
106.8
99.5
98.9
129.4
NA
109.2
102.1
104.2
130.8
NA
108.9
103.9
NA
NA
NA
109.4
102.9
106.0
133.1
NA
108.3
104.7
105.8
132,9
NA
109.0
104.2
NA
NA
NA
-1.0
1.7
-0.2
-0.2
NA
0.6
-0.5
NA
NA
NA
2.2
2.6
5.4
1.1
-0.3
1.8
NA
NA
39.8
2.8
446
38.9
2.3
578
39.5
2.5
488
40.1
2.8
443
40.4
3.1
392
40.2
3.0
380
40.3
3.1
408
40.7
3.3
387
0.2
0.1
-7.4
1.0
0.2
5.1
1.5
0.3
9,2
0.7
0.3
11.5
1
21
5
0.429
119
0.243
86
0.216
83
0.230
87
0.278
99
0.281
100
0.270
97
0.283 - 0 . 0 1 1
-3.0
99
0.013
2.1
0.014
4.8
0.048
13,8
60
46
170.02
97,030
91,156
25,497
165.84
96,125
89,596
23,907
164.58
95,697
88,815
23,088
166.81
96,514
89,452
23,341
168.27
98,162
90,118
23,828
168.08
97,758
90,152
23,724
167.28
98,074
89,735
23,832
169.44
98,655
90,468
23,927
-0.5
0.3
-0.5
0.5
1.3
0.6
0.8
0.4
1.4
0.9
0.7
1.1
0.9
1.7
0.7
2.1
4(1
42
41
40
58.28
57.06
56.40
56.73
57.51
57.39
57.49
57.66
0.10
0.17
0,33
0.78
90
8,273 10,678 11,439 11,222 10,571 10,590 10,699 10,423
7.6
10.4
9.4
9.7
10.1
9.5
9.5
9.3
3.4
3.4
4.6
4.5
4.1
3.6
3.4
3.3
13.7
20.6
IS.6
19.2
20.5
21.7
19.9
20.2
2.1
3.6
3.2
4.0
3.9
3.6
4.2
3.4
-1.0
0.
0.2
8.3
0.3
2.6
0.2
0.1
-1.5
0.2
1.9
0.3
0.4
-6.8
0.2
5.8
0.7
0.7
-0.5
0.4
37
43
45
91
44
1513.8 1485.4 1490.1 1525.1 1554.4
1254.2 1256.1 1265.2 1277.2 1286.3 1285.6 1283.5 1289.9
1080.5 1073.8 1075.5 1086.4 1098.6 1096.8 1096.2 1102.9
0.5
0.6
2. 3
0.9
1.0
1.9
0.7
1.1
50
-0.2
-0.1
52
51
July
1983
Aug.
1983
Sept.
1983
i
1. C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S
A. C o m p o s i t e I n d e x e s
91C.
920.
930.
940
Twelve leading indicators
Four roughly coincident indicators
Six lagging indicators
Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
Leading Indicator Subgroups:
913. Marginal employment adjustments
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916 Profitability
517. Money and financial flows
L.L.L.... 1967-100
C,C,C....
do
LgLgLg....
do
do
L,L,L...
.
L,l,L....
L,L,L...
L,L,L...
LLL
L,L,L...
do
do
do
do
do
2.8
NA
910
920
930
940
913
914
915
916
917
15. C y c l i c a l I n d i c a t o r s b y E c o n o m i c P r o c e s s
B l . Employment and Unemployment
Miirgin.jl Employment Adjustments:
• 1 . Vrerage workweek, prod, workers, mfg
21. IWR. weekly overtime, prod, workers, mfg.3
*5. Avg. weekly initial claims (inverted')
Jot Vacancies:
00, Patio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3
<I6. Kelp-wanted advertising...
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Enployee-hours in nonagri. establishments
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
* 4 L Employees on nonagri. payrolls
40. Employees in mining, mfg., construction
90. R::tio, civilian employment to total population
i>f working age3
Comprehensive Unemployment;
3?, Tolal unemployed (inverted*)
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted')*
45, Avf. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv.<)3
•91 Avg. duration of unemployment (inverted1)
44, Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.1)1
L,l,L... Hours
L,CtL...
do
L,CL... Thousands
l,Lg,U.... Ratio
L,Lg,U.... 1967 = ib'b"
U,C,C... A.r., bil. hrs
U,C,C... Thousands
C,C,C....
do
do
L,C,IL.
U,lg,U.... Percent
L,Lg,U....
L,lg,U....
L,Lg,U....
Le.Lg.Lg....
Lg,Lg,Lg-
Thousands
Percent
do
Weeks
Percent
B2. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
50. GNF in 1972 dollars
52. Personal income in 1972 dollars
•51. Pers. income less transfer pay., 1972 dollars
53. Wagis and salaries in mining, mfg., and
construction, 1972 dollars..,.
Industral Pi eduction:
*47. ndustrial production, total
73. Industrial production, durable mfrs
74. Industrial produetion.-nondurable mfrs
49. Value of goods output, 1972 dollars
Capacity Util tation:
83. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., BEAS
82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., FRB3
84, Capacty utilization rate, materials, FRB3
C,C,C... A.r., bil. dol
C,C,C....
do
do
C,C C...
C,C,C...
do
C,C,C... 1967 = 100 .
C,C,C...
, do . .
C,L,L
....do
C,C,C... A r . b i l dol.. .
L,C,U....
l,C,U...
Percent
do
do
229.8
216.2
212.5
216.0
220.0
219.1
219.8
221.0
0.3
0.5
1.6
1.9
53
151.0
140.5
164.8
692.6
138.6
124.7
156.2
661.6
138.5
124.2
159.0
656.9
144.5
131.1
165.5
681.8
151.6
139.0
172.2
701*0
149.6
136.8
170.2
151.4
138.6
172.1
153.7
141.7
174.2
1.2
1.3
1.1
1.5
2.2
1.2
4.3
5.6
4.1
3. 8
4.9
6.0
4.0
2.8
47
73
74
49
76
79.4
80.7
70
71.1
70.0
70
70.7
70.1
73
73.8
73.5
NA
77.3
77.4
3
3.1
3. 4
NA
3.5
3.9
83
82
84
B3. C o r s u m p t i o n , Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
6. New orders, durable goods
7. New orders, durable goods, 1972 dollars
*8. New orders, cons, goods and mtls., 1972 dol
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods3
96. Mf-s/ unfilled orders, durable goods5
•32. Vendor performance3 @
L,L,U, Bil. dol
89.24
83.68
79.92
86.15
88.23
89.98
75.03
89.SO
L.L.L....
do
37.41 37.04
37.61 32.48
34.06
36.42
37.68
37.52
L,L,L...
do
29.45
35.29
33.28
31.65
33.38
34.86
35.96
35.06
L,LtL...
do
-1.80
1.80
-0.15
1.55
2.99
2.59
2.06
0.74
L,Lg,U.... Bil. dol., EOP ... 313.34 291.76 296.41 305.37 310.76 307.96 310.02 310.76
L.L.L... Percent
37
58
45
44
52
52
61
60
Consumption aid Trade:
56. Manufacturing and trade sales...,.
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales, 1972 dollars
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54. Saks of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores, 1972 dollars
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
58. Index of consumer sentiment ©
C,C,C...
C,C,C...
C.L.C....
C,L,U....
U,L,U....
L,C,C....
L,L,L...
Bil. dol
do
1967-100
Mil. dol
do
A.r., bil. dol
Q 1966=100
355.99
159.85
147.9
87,298
45,268
69.3
70.7
344.11
152.07
142.6
89,640
44,680
73.9
68.0
344.94
153.46
143.8
92,245
45,553
80.7
75.3
NA 372.43
362.86
NA 162.78
160.04
156.4
150.2
155.0
97,684 98,985 99,521
47,798 47,990 48,429
94.2
91.4
91.5
91.6
93.9
373.57
NA
162.87
NA
156.0
158.2
97,955 99,480
47,482 48,058
2.0
1.7
3.2
-0.53
0.7
9
-0.5
-0.4
-2.5
-1.32
0.2
-1
7.8
6.9
i.§
1.44
3.0
8
3.6
2.7
5.7
-1.19
1.8
6
6
7
8
25
96
32
0.3
0.1
0.6
-1.6
-2.0
NA
NA
1.4
1.6
1.2
NA
NA
4.1
1.3
0.4
3 1
0.1
56
57
75
54
59
55
f
90.9
89.9
-3.2
-1.1
5.2
4.3
4.5
5.9
4.9
13 3
21.5
115.5
112.4
115.3
-2.7
2.6
1.7
NA
NA
NA
58
£14. Fixed C a p i t a l I n v e s t m e n t
Formation cf Business Enterprises:
*12. Net tiusiniss formation
13. New busiress incorporations
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
*20. Contncts and orders, plant and equipment,
197? dollars
24. New order:;, capital goods indus., nondefense
27. New orders, capital goods industries,
nondefen;;e, 1972 dollars
,
L.L.L.... 1967-100
L L L... Number
118.6
113.2
112.5
114.4
48,435 47 153 4rt 776 50 035
114.4
NA
NA
NA
2.6
0.
NA
12
13
L,l,L... Bil. dol
27.99
24.75
23.79
27.61
•26.55
25.10
26.76
27.80
6.6
3.9
16.1
-3.8
10
L,L,L...
1,1,1....
do
do
14.11
24.01
12.39
20.64
12.08
19.91
14.24
23.04
13.59
22.87
12.53
21.58
13.43
23.03
14.81
24.01
7.2
6.7
10.3
4.3
17.9
15.7
-4.6
-0.7
20
24
L,L,L...
do
12.38
10.62
10.43
12.28
12.01
11.02
11.82
13.18
7.3
11.5
17.7
-2.2
27
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title and timing classification1
Percent change
Annual average
July
1982
1st Q
1983
2dQ
1983
3dQ
1983
July
1983
Aug.
1983
Sept.
••
1983
I f Aug.
1983
Aug.
to
Sept.
1983
1st Q
2dQ
1983
2dQ
to
3d Q
1983
I. C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S — C o n .
B4, Fixed Capital I n v e s t m e n t — C o n .
Business Investment Commitments—Con.:
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.5
L,C,U... Mil. sq. ft
U,Lg,U.., Bil. dol
C,Lg,Lg... Bil. dol., EOP .,
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Business expend., new plant and equipment
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production, business equipment
86. Nonresid. fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars
C,lg,Lg... A,r., bil.dol
321.49 316.43 293.03 293.46 313.04
C.Lg.Lg...
do
C,Lg,U... 1967 = 100
C,Lg,C... A.r., bil. dol
348.65 325.76 307.34 316.84
181.1 157.9 144.3 148.3
174.4 166.1 159.9 163.0
Residential Construction Commitments and Investment:
28. New private housing units started, total
•29. New building permits, private housing
89. Fixed investment, residential, 1972 dollars
L,L,L. Ax, thousands,
L,L,L... 1967=100
LtL,L... A.r., bil.dol
77.72
26.38
92.46
57.38
21.28
70.76
59.10
20.18
70.04
60.31
20.96
71,36
65.41
NA
NA
61.78
65.26
69.20
5.6
6.0
NA 318.94 321.07
155.4 153.0 154.8
168.7
NA
158.
0.7
1.2
NA
2.3
5.8
-7.3
-13.5
1,087
80.0
44.7
1,061
80.7
37.8
1,694
118.3
45.5
1,683
132.8
52.6
1,788
133.0
56.9
8.5
-9.4
-15.4
-5.4
4.8
1.77 -14.23 •14.83
33.3 -14.2 -34.9
0.83
O.O3 -2.12
-2.41
9.2
1.15
NA
NA
NA
1,804
143.9
1,909
133.4
1,65
121.
2.0
3.9
1.9
8.5
NA
NA
9
11
97
0.1
6.7
61
3.1
2.8
1.9
NA
4.8
3.5
69
76
86
-0.6
12.3
15.6
6.2
0.2
8.2
28
29
89
10.0
10.2
30
B5. Inventories a n d Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars3
*36. Change in inventories on hand and on order,
1972 dollars (smoothed6)3
31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories3
38. Change in materials on hand and on order3
L,L,L...
..do..
L.L.L.
do
L,L,L...
do
L,L,L... BiL dol
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71, Mfg. and trade inventories5
70. Mfg. and trade inventories, 1972 dollars5
65. Mfrs.1 inventories of finished goods5
*77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories to sales, mfg.
and trade3
78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on
order, mfg.s
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP .
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
do
Lg,Lg,Lg.....
526.15 511.94 503.22 505.52
269.42 261.21 257.57 257.05
89.55
85.07
1.67
1.75
82.41
5.79
3.7
2.23
12.63
75.0
3.40
NA 505.83 512.07
256.93 259.10
81.93
82.49
82.60
1.58
1.59
NA
MA
NA
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Ratio
1.69
1.61
NA
L,Lg,Lg.... 8il. dol., EOP .
221.56 196.07 198.57 202.02
6.84
71.3
1.17
NA
NA
NA
12.42
44.1
0.32
NA
NA
NA
36
31
38
1.2
0.8
0.1
NA
NA
NA
0.5
-0.2
-0.6
NA
NA
NA
71
70
65
0.01
-0.08
NA
77
1.7
1.7
NA
78
204.25 207.64
B6. Prices, Costs, a n d Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3
23. Spot market prices, raw industrials ©
*99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)3
L,L,L...
U,L,L...
L,L,L...
Percent
1967=100...
Percent
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks ©
L,LtL...
1941-43=10..
Profits and Profit Margins:
16. Corporate profits after taxes
18. Corporate profits after taxes, 1972 dollars
79. Corp. profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj
80
do
1972 dollars
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, mfg.3
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business..
L,L,I
A.r., bil.dol
L,L,L...
....do
L,C,L.
....do
L,C,L.
do
L,L,L. Cents
L.L.L.. 1977 = 100
144.1
72.7
109.5
55.5
4.8
98.1
115.1
55.6
105.6
51.1
3.4
96.2
108.2
51.7
120.3
57.5
3.3
96.3
127.2
60.6
142.2
67.9
4.0
97.6
. L.L.L.... A.r., bil. dol
271.3
133.3
267.3
125.2
278.9
130.3
Cash Flows:
34. Net cash flow, corporate
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars..
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, private business sector
68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic
product, nonfin. corporations
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
a) Actual data
*b) Actual data as percent of trend
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
national income3
B7.
-0.38
242.5
-0.67
2.78
240.7
0.92
1.20
265.2
1.07
1.33
3.6
0.17
-2.26
1.0
-0.14
-1.27
4.6
0.56
-1.51
4.5
-0.51
98
23
99
-2.7
2.9
10.2
1.7
19
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
98.3
17.6
17.2
18.2
18.1
0.7
1.4
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.7
16
18
79
80
15
26
310.6
145.9
NA
NA
11.4
12.0
NA
NA
34
35
1.51
251.7
1.48
0.
263.0
0.97
-0.13
256.0
0.90
128.04 119.71 147.65 162.73 165.51 166.96 162.42 167.|l6
Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1977 = 100...
142.1
153.3
156.9
156.2
156.5
-0.4
0.2
63
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Dollars
1.302
1.397
1.428
1.416
NA
-0.8
NA
68
Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1967 = 100...
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent
209.0
100.2
228.0
101.0
230.8
97.4
227.4
94.2
223.1
90,6
-1.5
-3.2
-1.9
-3.6
62
62
74.6
76.1
76.1
75.3
0.52
0.81
0.95
197.9
789.8
0.69
0.73
0.86
198.5
813.9
1.34
1.85
0.83
209.3
872.3
0.94
0.71
0.86
213.4
885.2
0.36
0.48
NA
215.7
892.1
0.74
0.56
NA
216.2
891.9
0.23
0.50
NA
215.8
892.5
-0.51
-0.06
NA
-0.2
0.1
-0.58
-0.23
NA
1.1
0.8
85
102
104
105
106
6.870
1.418
6.711
1.373
6.468
1.301
6.477
1.295
6.512
1,293
1.292
1.290
1L296 -0.002
0.009 0.035
0.006 -0.006 -0.002
107
108
NA
2.75
NA
NA
NA
69.42
4.58
58.08
9.7
71.86
8.95
40.66
8.5
2.44
NA -2.78
1 NA
4.37 -14.24 -37.83
+5.29 -17.42
NA 13.32
NA
NA
-1.2
-1.6
NA
37.9
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do
224.3
91.7
223.3
90.7
221.7
69.5
-0.4
-1.0
-0.7
-1.2
-0.8
Money and Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply ( M l ) 3
102. Change in money supply (M2) 3 . , .
104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed6)3.
105. Money supply ( M l ) , 1972 dollars .
*106. Money supply (M2), 1972 dollars .
.
Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply (Ml) 3 ...
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply (M2) 3
Credit
33.
112.
113.
•111.
110.
.
.
..
.
-0.93
283.4
-0.58
.
L,L,L
.do.
L,C,U .
.do.
L,L,L
.do..
L.L.L
Bil. dol
L.L.L
.do.
C,C,C... Ratio
C,Lg,C...
Flows:
Change in mortgage debt3
Change in business loans3
Change in consumer installment credit3
Change in credit outstanding3
Total private borrowing
L,l,L... A.r., bil. dol...
do
L,L,L...
L,L,L...
L,L,L... A.r., percent..
L,L,L... A.r., bil.dol...
39.91 - 7 . 0 1
2.16 -0.62
36.30 16.79 12.50 -25.33
18.14 13.04 24.17 37.49
2.0
7.1
0.4
1.4
305.60 262.99 277.77 383.00
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.*) ©
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inv.') 3S
L,L,L... Mil. dol
L,L,L... Percent, EOP ,
579.60
2.37
NA
2.18
NA
2.22
NA
1.92
NA
NA|
NA
NA
-0.13
-0.11
NA
-0.4
-0.1
NA
NA
-0.40
-1.14
0.03
2.0
1.5
NA
0.30
NA
28.08
NA
NA
NA
33
112
113
111
110
NA
NA
14
39
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data'
Unit
of
measure
1
Series title and timing classification
Percent change
Annual average
1981
1982
July
1st Q
1983
2dQ
1983
3dQ
1983
July
1983
Aug.
1983
Sept.
1983
Aug.
1983
Aug.
to
Sept.
1983
1st Q
to
2dQ
1983
2dQ
to
3dQ
1983
I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con.
87. Money and C r e d i t — C o n .
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted*) 3 ®
94. Borrowing from the Federal Reserve1 ©
... L.U.U.... Mil. dol
do..
. L,Lg,U....
•1,051
1,359
-692
1,052
-164
636
-735
1,203
-997
1,467
-875 -1,127
1,382 1,573
-989
1,446
252
191
-138
-127
571
567
262
264
Interest Rates:
119 Federal funds rate3 ©
114. Treasury bill rate 8 ©..
116. Corporate bond yields 3 ©
115. Treasury bond yields'©
117. Municipal bond yields 3 ®
118. Mortgage yields, residential3 ©
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans3 ®
*IO9. Average prime rate charged by banks3 ©
L,Lg,Lg.... Percent
do..,
C,Lg,Lg...,
do...
Lg,LgtLg- do...
C,lg,Lg,...
do...
U,Lg,Lg....
do...
Lg.Lg.Lg....
do...
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do...
Lg,Lg,lg....
16.38
14.08
15.48
12.87
11.33
16.31
19.56
18.87
12.26
10.72
14.68
12.23
11.66
15.30
14.69
14.86
8.65
8.08
11.99
10.44
9.43
12.73
10.20
10.88
8.80
8.42
11.57
10.35
9.23
12.62
10.31
10.50
9.46
9.19
12.68
11.26
9.61
13.85
11.09
10.80
9.37
9.12
12.46
11.10
9.53
14.23
9.56
9.39
12.89
11.42
9.72
13.78
9.45
9.05
12.68
11.26
9.58
13.55
0.19
0.27
0.43
0.32
0.19
-0.45
-0.11
-0.34
-0.21
-0.16
-0.14
-0.23
10.50
10.89
11.00
0.39
0.11
0.15
0.34
-0.42
-0.09
-0.20
-0.11
0.11
-0.38
0.66
0.77
1.11
0.91
0.
1.23
0.78
0.30
326.27 339.32 345.36 354.73
NA 359.57 362.96
227.06 266.42 266.15 261.32 261.00 260.65 261.40 260.96
0.9
0.3
NA
-0.2
2.7
-1.8
NA
-0.1
92.14 106.02 105.50 103.22 102.10 102.38 102.11 101.82
NA 13.09 13.17
13.16 12.92 12.92 12.93
-0.3
0.08
-0.3
NA
-2.2
0.01
-1.1
NA
0.5
0.
1.
0.
0.
1.0
1.1
0.3
1
0.8
O.i
OjtstandingDebt:
66. Consumer installment credit5
It Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
*]01. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
1972 dollars
*95. Mio, consumer install, credit to pers. income3
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP.
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol
do
Lg,Lg,Lg,...
Lg,Lg,Lg,... Percent
It. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, a n d Productivity
B l . Price M o v e m e n t s
310.
3J'O.
320c.
322.
330.
335.
331.
33?.
33.1.
33-1.
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Consumer price index (CPI), all items ®
Change in CPI, all items, S/A3
CPI, food
P-oducer price index (PPI), all commodities © . .
P'l, industrial commodities ©
Pl'l, crude materials
Pl'l, intermediate materials
PPI, capital equipment
Pfi, finished consumer goods
1972 = 100...
1967 = 100...
Percent
1967=100...
...do..,
...do..
...do..
..do..,
..do..
195.1
272.4
0.7
274.6
293.4
304
329.0
306,
264,
271.3
206.9
289.1
0.3
285.7
299.3
312.3
319.5
310.4
279.6
280.9
212.8
293.2
0.
288.9
300.5
313.8
317.2
309.5
284.9
282.9
214.6
296.9
0.4
291.6
301.5
313.8
323.8
309.1
286.4
283.2
216.4
300.5
0.4
291.7
304.5
317.1
324
314,
288.
285.5
299.3
0.4
291.0
303.2
316.6
319.7
312.2
287.7
284.6
300.3
0.4
291.6
304.9
317,5
326.5
314.0
289.6
285.5
301.8
0.5
292.5
305.3
317.2
328.0
316
288.8
286.4
0
0
0.2
0
0.3
0.3
0.7
-0.3
0.3
0.8
1.3
0.4
0.9
0.3
0
2,
-0,
0.
0.1
138.9
148.3
153.2
154.5
155.4
155.2
155.0
155.9
-0.1
0.6
0.8
0.6
92.6
143.1
95.4
101.3
100.3
93.3
154.4
96.9
101.2
100.2
95.0
160.6
99.3
102.5
101.7
94.8
162.2
99.3
103.8
103.3
94.3
164
99.3
105.0
104.6
94.7
94.0
94.2
-0.7
0.2
-0.2
1.0
0
1.3
1.6
-0
1
0
1.2
1.3
108.67 110.20 110.53 111.16 112.17 111.88 112.26 112.37
100.40
99.53 99.09
99.93 101.60 101.28 101.56 101.94
8,273 10,678 11,439 11,222 10,571 10,590 10,699 10,423
3,615
5,089
5,532 5,169 5 , 2 0 8
5,642
5,174
5,125
2,895 3,613
3,777 3,549 3,521
3,926
3,609
3,518
1,763
1,977
1,913 1,852 1,860
1,871
1,916
1,780
6,795 9,006
9,478 8,934 8,949 9,022
9,811
8,832
0.3
0.3
1.0
-0.7
2.5
3.0
0.8
0 1
0.4
2.6
0.9
2.5
7.1
2.1
0.6
0.8
-1.9
-1.9
-3.8
2.2
-3.4
0.9
1.7
-5.8
-6.6
-6.0
-3.2
-5.7
-0.2
0.3
1.1
0.
0.1
-0.7
0.3
0.
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.7
17.2
4.7
1.5
11.3
3.7
1.4
NA
1.7
NA
NA
2.4
NA
NA
-19.6
3.1
NA
3.2
0.1
8 2 . Wages a n d Productivity
340. Average hourly earnings, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
341, Real average hourly earnings, production
workers, private nonfarm economy
345. Avtrage hourly compensation, nonfarm business
346, Reel average hourly compensation, nonfarm business..
370, Output per hour, private business sector
358. OutDut per hour, nonfarm business sector
1977-100...
..do..,
...do..,
...do...
...do...
C. Labor Force, E m p l o y m e n t , and
Unemployment
441.
442,
37.
444.
445.
446.
447.
Labor
451.
452.
453.
.do.
.do..
Percent....
79.0
52.1
55.4
78.7
52.7
54.1
78.1
52.9
53.0
78.4
52.9
53.4
78.7
53.3
54.1
183.3 - 1 6 6 . 1
623.3 652.6
818.7
806.6
51.7
40.4
478.7
461.7
427.0
421.3
NA
NA
832.3
NA
NA
437.4
78.8
53.1
53.6
78.6
53.4
54.7
78.6
53.5
54.0
D. G o v e r n m e n t Activities
Receipts and Expenditures
Fuderel Government surplus or deficit3
Ftideral Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures
State end local government surplus or deficit3.
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures
D2,
517.
525.
548.
557.
570.
564.
.do.
Force Participation Rates:
Males, 20 years and over3.
f'ema es, 20 years and over3
Eiothuexes, 16-19 years of age3
Dl.
500.
501.
502.
510.
511.
512.
Millions
.do...
Thousands..
. do
Total civilian labor force
Total civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Unenployed males, 20 years and over
Unemployed females, 20 years and over . . . .
Unemployed persons, 16-19 years of age. . ..
dumber unemployed, full-time workers
...do...
...do..
...do...
...do...
...do...
-62.2 -147.1
627.0
617.4
689.2
764.4
35.3
31.3
418.1 439.1
382.7
407.8
Defense Indicators
De!ense Department obligations incurred
Deiense Department prime contract awards..
New orc'ers, defense products
Output uf defense and space equipment
Ermloyniflnt in defense products industries...
National defense purchases
Mil. dol..
1967 = 100...
Thousands..
A.r., bil. dol..
15,945 18,908 20,429 20,135
8,065 10,718 12,434 10,352
4,917
7,152 6,600
6,246
102.7
116.5 117.9
109.3
1,392
1,356 1,362
1,371
154.0
194.4 199.4
179.4
NA 19,409 20,489
NA 11,017 10,727
5,304 6,901
4,545
121.5 120.0 121.5
1,354
NA 1,373
205.8
NA
NA
4,467
122.9
NA
5.6
-2.6
-34.1
1.2
-1.4
NA
NA
-1.7
1.2
NA
-1.4
-16.7
-7.7
1.2
0.4
2.6
16,628 16,630
2,973
NA 3,072
3,290
NA 3,655
NA 21,950 22,782
4,828
NA 5,220
2,762
NA 2,988
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
0.
-3.2
-10.0
3.8
-7.5
-7.6
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-3.6
-3.8
-2.8
6.4
23.8
7.1
E. U.S. International Transactions
E l . Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614.
616.
Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total
Experts cf domestic agricultural products
Exports cf nonelectrical machinery
General imports, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Imports of automobiles and parts
..
Mil. dol....
..do..
...do,.
19,456 17,694
3,053
3,608
4,007
4,456
21,751 20,329
4,964
6,319
2,442
2,190
6,824 16,216
2,975
2,861
3,501
3,404
9,520 20,770
3,429
4,246
2,675
2,866
NA
NA
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data2
Unit
of
measure
Series title
Percent change
Annual average
2dQ
1981
1982
1982
3dQ
1982
4th Q
1982
1st Q
1983
2dQ
1983
3dQ
1983
4th Q
to
1st Q
1983
1st Q
to
2<JQ
1983
2dQ
to
3dQ
1983
II. OTHER I M P O R T A N T E C O N O M I C
MEASURES—Con.
E2. G o o d s a n d S e r v i c e s M o v e m e n t s E x c e p t
Transfers Under Military Grants
667.
668.
669.
622.
618.
620.
651.
652.
Balance on goods and services3
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
Merchandise trade balance3
Merchandise exports
Merchandise imports
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Income on foreign investments in the U.S
Bil. dol. ..
...do..
.do..
.do...
do
.do..
. .do.
....do...
1.87
85.52
83.65
-6.39
56.06
62.44
18.11
10.72
2,
93,
90,
-7.
59,
66.
21.
13.
-0.80
87.08
87.88
-9.10
52.80
61.90
21.04
14.21
3.24 - 4 . 8 5 - 4 . 1 9
90.79 86.93 80.84
87.55 91.79 85.03
- 5 . 8 5 -13.08 -11.35
55.00 52.24 48.34
60.85 65.32 59.70
22.32 21.57 19.50
14.78 14.75 13.49
- 2 . 0 3 -7.87
81.14 81.88
83.17 89.75
- 8 . 8 1 -14.66
49.51 48.91
58.32 63.57
17.70 19.19
12.61 13.26
2.16
0.4
-2.2
2.54
2.4
-2.3
-9.2
-6.5
-5.84
0.9
7.9
-5.85
-1.2
9.0
8.4
5.2
NA
NA
NA
NA
618
620
651
652
2.0
0.6
0.4
0.1
1.3
0.7
0.5
3.2
2.3
2.1
1.7
2.0
0
0.7
2,8
1.9
1.7
1.2
2.6
1.6
1.4
200
50
217
213
224
225
227
2186.
1019,
284.
158.6
818,
379,
1083,
481.1
1.3
0
2
1
0.5
0,8
1.5
0.3
3.6
2.4
7.4
7.3
2.9
1.6
3.1
1.6
1.8
0.9
2,3
1.3
2,4
1,3
1,3
0.4
230
231
232
233
236
238
237
239
667
668
NA
A. N a t i o n a l I n c o m e a n d P r o d u c t
A l . GNPand Personallncome
200.
50.
217.
213.
224.
225.
227.
GNP, current dollars
GNP, 1972 dollars
Per capita GNP, 1972 dollars
Final sales, 1972 dollars
'.
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, 1972 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income, 1972 dollars
230.
231.
232.
233.
236.
238.
237.
239.
Total, current dollars
Total, 1972 dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Durable goods, 1972 dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars...
Nondurable goods, 1972 dollars
Services, current dollars
Services, 1972 dollars
240.
241.
242.
243.
245.
30.
Total, current dollars
Total, 1972 dollars
Total fixed investment, current dollars
Total fixed investment, 1972 dollars
Change in business inventories, current dollars3...
Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars3
:
A.r., bil. dol..
...do
A.r., dollars..
A.r., bil. dol..
...do
...do
A.r., dollars..
2631.7
1475.0
6,478
1479.4
1828.9
1021.6
4,487
A.r., bil. dol..
..do..
..do..
..do..
...do...
..do...
..do..,
..do..,
1668.1 1857.
931.8 956
214.7 236
137.5 141.
668.8 733
355.6 362
784.5 887
438.8 453
2954.1
1513.8
6,584
1505.3
2047.6
1054.7
4,587
3073.0
1485.4
6,399
1494.8
2176.5
1060.2
4,567
3070.2
1489.3
6,425
1492.7
2159.0
1060.2
4,574
3090.7
1485.7
6,393
1487.0
2191.5
1059.3
4,558
3109.6
14 80.7
6,355
1503.4
2227.8
1066.1
4,576
3171.5
1490.1
6,382
1505.5
2255.9
1073.8
4,599
A2. Personal C o n s u m p t i o n Expenditures
970.2
244.5
139.8
761.0
364.2
986.4
466.2
1972.8 2008,
968.8 971,
242.9 243,
139.5 138.
754.7 766.
363.5 364.
975.2 998.
465.7 463.
2046.9 2073.0 2147,
•979.6 986.7 1010,
252.1 258.5 277,
143.2 145.8 156,
773.0 777.1 799,
366.0 368.9 374,
1021.8 1037.4 1069,
470.4 472.0 479,
A 3 . Gross P r i v a t e D o m e s t i c I n v e s t m e n t
..do..
..do..
..do..
..do,.
..do..
401.9
208.5
411.7
212.9
-9.8
-9.8
474.9
227.6
456.5
219.1
18.5
18.5
414.5
194.5
439.1
203.9
-24.5
-24.5
432.5 425.3
201.4 198.4
443.7 430.2
20 4.9 199.8
-11.2
-4.9
-3.4
-1.3
377.4
178.4
433.8
201.1
-56.4
-22.7
404.1
190.0
443.5
205.4
-39.4
-15.4
450
210
464
215
-14
-5
501.0
230.4
489.2
225.6
11.8
4.8
7.1
6.5
2.2
2.1
17.0
7.3
11,
10,
4.3
5
24.9
10.0
11.3
9.6
5.3
4.6
26.3
10.2
240
241
242
243
245
30
..do..
..do..
..do...
..do...
..do...
..do..,
537.8
284.3
197.0
106.4
340.8
177.9
595.7
286.5
229.2
110.4
366.5
176.1
649.2
291.8
258.7
116.6
390.5
175.2
631.6
285.8
244.1
110.3
387.5
175.4
655.7
292.2
261.7
116.9
394.0
175.3
679.7
299.7
279.2
124.4
400.5
175.2
677.4
292.9
273.5
118.4
404.0
174.5
.4
292
273
117
409|
701.8
296.1
281.2
119.6
420.6
176.6
-0.3
-2.3
-2.0
-4.8
0.9
-0.4
0.9
-0.3
0
-0.7
1.4
0.
2.7
1.4
2.7
1.7
2.7
1.2
260
261
262
263
266
267
..do..
...do..
23.9
50.3
338.8
159.1
314.8
108.8
26.3
43.0
368.8
159.7
342.5
116.7
17.4
28.9
347.6
147.3
330.2
118.4
33.3
33.4
364.5
154.5
331.2
121.1
0.9
24.0
346.0
146.4
345.0
122.4
5.6
23.0
321.6
136.5
316.1
113.5
17.0
20,
326,
137.
309,
116.8
-25.9
8.7
339.2
139.9
365.1
131.1
11.4
-2.5
1.6
0
-2.0
2.9
-25.5
-8.2
0.1
-0.8
8.3
6.1
-17.4
-3
3.7
2.7
8.8
5.8
250
255
252
256
253
257
2474.0 2528.5
2116.6 2373.0 2450.4 2448.9
1599.6 1769.2 1865.7 1859.9 1879.5 1889.0 1923.7
116.2 120.6
117.4 120.2 109.0 104.9
54.1
49.0
52.3
31.5
50
41.4
49.9
161.9 181.8
175.4 192.3 164.8 166.8 168
254.7
248.3
192.6 249.9 261.1 268.3 256.4
NA
2011.3
127.4
53.9
NA
246.1
2.2
1.8
3.8
3.4
12.3
-2.5
3.3
2.3
5
1.3
20.0
-1.8
NA
2.2
0.2
-1.6
NA
0.9
220
280
282
234
286
288
NA
NA
110.9
NA
4.7
13.4
3.4
0
32.4
0.
5.5
5.6
-24.8
28.5
-1.4
NA
NA
21.2
NA
0.7
290
295
292
298
293
A4. G o v e r n m e n t P u r c h a s e s
of G o o d s a n d S e r v i c e s
260.
261.
262.
263.
266.
267.
Total, current dollars
Total, 1972 dollars
Federal Government, current dollars
Federal Government, 1972 dollars
State and local governments, current dollars
State and local governments, 1972 dollars
A5. Foreign Trade
250.
255.
252.
256.
253.
257.
Net exports of goods and services, current dollars3
Net exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars3
Exports of goods and services, current dollars
Exports of goods and services, 1972 dollars
Imports of goods and services, current dollars
Imports of goods and services, 1972 dollars
..do..
,..do..
..do..
A 6 . N a t i o n a l I n c o m e a n d Its C o m p o n e n t s
220.
280.
282.
284.
286.
288.
National income
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj .
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj
Net interest
290.
295.
292.
298.
293.
Gross saving (private and government) .
Business saying
Personal saving
Government surplus or deficit3
Personal saving rate3
A7.
..do...
..do..
..do..
..do..
..do..
Saving
..do..
....do..
....do..
....do..
Percent
405.9
325.2
110.2
-30.7
6.0
483.8 4 0 5 . 8
374.4 396.2
135.3 125.4
-26.9 -115.8
6.6
5.8
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ® , that appear to contain no seasonal
movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of
Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A,
seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption
adjustment.
1
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all
turns: L, leading; C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U, unclassified.
439.5 397.9 351.3 398.5
0.6
393.6 401.9 405.8 419.7
3.4
127.1 123.0 120.8 121.7
1.5
- 8 1 . 2 -127.0 -175.3 -142.9 -1 4.4
5.4
5.9
5.6
5.4
4.0
2
For a few series, data shown here are rouided to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual
figures published by the source agencies are used if aliable.
3
Differences rather than percent changes are si Dwn for this series.
4
love counter to movements in general business activity, signs of
Inverted series. Since this series tends I
the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (am quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the
period.
6
This series is a weighted 4-term moving av age (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of
the span.
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
Chart A l . Composite Indexes
Aug. Apr.
P T
Nov. Oct.
P T
I;
hpr. Feb.
P T
low. M M .
Dee. Nov.
P T
P I P
{Index: 1967*-100
1
ij
no|i
-it
/
(series lj 5,8,12,19, 20, 29,32, 36,99, 106,)
I1
i!
f
i!
li
I
If
150130*
/
ji
jj
160-
-3
9io. Index of 12 leading indicators
1
T
^ \
/
V
/
rrn3
in
120110-
-i
/
1;
1;
920. Wex of 4 roughly coincktent indicators
(serte|.41,47, 51, 57)
o
930. Index of 6 lagging indicators
(Series 62, 77, 91, 95,101,109)
SI 52 33 84 BS §6 §J §8 S9 60 61
64 ©S 6© 67 ©S 69 70 71
NOTE: Numbe'S entered on the chart indicate length of leads ( - ) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data f i r these series are shown on page 60.
10
OCTOBER 1983
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
IA
I
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A l . Composite Indexes—-Continued
Nov. Oct.
P T
P T
Aug. Apr.
PI
Apr. Feb.
P T
Dec. Nov.
P T
Nov. Mar.
P
T
Jan. July July Nov.
P T P T
913. Marginal employment adjustments (series 1,2f 3 , 5 )
914. Capital investment commitments (series 12,20,29)
-15
-u!
120110100-
90-
I
f
i
915.J Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8,32, ;&>, 99) "L"rl
i
120-
^1
110100-
4
916. Profitability (series 19,26,
917. Money add financial flows (series 104,106, 111)
II
J
\\r
940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
1948 49
50 51
57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68
82 1983
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads ( - ) and lag&( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.
OCTOBER 1983
11
1
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components
No/. Get
P T
July May
P T
Aug. Apr.
P T
•
Apr. Feb.
P T
Dec WOT.
P T
Nov. Mar.
P
T
P T
P
Nov.
T
i
1. Average workweek, production workers,
mamifacjlturhg (hotir^)
At/prnff0 u/ppklu initial rlaimc fltato nnnmnlnumpnt incuranrp
(thousands—inverted scale)
8. Mew orders for consumer goods and materiaJs, 1972 dollars
(bil, dol.)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower
deliveries (percent)
12. fjet business formation (index; 1967 T= 100)
20.!! Contracts and
1948 49 90 51 52 93 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 S3 64 65
82138$
Current thita (or these secies are shown on pages 61, 64, 65, and 66.
12
OCTOBER 1983
CYCLICAL
!A
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
Nov. Oct.
P T
July May
P T.
29.
36.
Aug. Apr.
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
Dec, Nov.
P T
Nov. Mar.
P
T
Jan. July July NOT.
P T P T
New building permits, private housing units (index: 1967 = 100)
nxn
NeJ change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bil, dol.)
smoothed1 (percent)
111.
Change in credit outstanding—business and consumer
porrowmg ^ann. rate, percent;
I
JLLLI
19. Stock prices, 500 cbmmon stocks
(index: ' 1 9 4 1 - 4 3 - 1 0 )
106.
Money s u p p l y ^ M 2 - i n 1972 dollars (bil.
dk)
1948 49 50 51 52 53 §4 55 5i
'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 67, 68, 69, 7 1 , and 72.
OCTOBER 1983
13
1
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
Nov. Oct.
T
Aug. Apr.
P
.
Apr. Feb.
T
P
T
..
41. Employees an nonagricultural payrofls p l o n s )
cite
51. Personal \ncme less transfer 0$m
1972 M a r l tm. rate, bilj|*li) —
Industrial product^ total (index:
cZc
57. Manufacturing and trade sales
1972 dollars (bil. <ML)
1948 49 90 51 92 §3 54 §§ S6 57 58 99 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 8X 821983
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63, and 65.
14
OCTOBER 1983
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
IA
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
Nov. Oct.
P T
July May
P T
Aug. Apr.
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
Dec. Nov.
P T
Nov. Mar.
P
T
Jan. July July Now.
P T P T
|i 91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)
10121416*
1820 «
22^
7. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories to sales, manufacturing
and t r a * (ratio) ,• ••
•
'|
i
1.91.81.71.61.5-
i,$2. Labor cpst per unit of output, manufacturing—actual data
|j as perceht of trend (percent) [ L g L g ) L g | f
1.4llO-i
105*
10095«
109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)
101, Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
in 1972 dollars (bil. doJ.)
o. Kauo, consumer installment crean to personal mcom
1948 49 50 51 52 93 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 ?4
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73.
OCTOBER 1983
15
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment
jg. Apr.
P T
Dec.
P
Apr. Feb.
T
Now.
T
Now. Mar.
P
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
New.
T
81
82 1933
[Margjhal Employment Adjustments
1. Average workweek, production workers, ma
21, Average weekly overtime hours,
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (per 1
5, Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (thots^ruis—inverted scale)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 1(W wployees—invert
19S6 B7
m
Si
60
©1
62
S3
S4
6§
67
S8
69
70
71
72
73
74
79
Current data for these series are shown on page 6 1 .
16
OCTOBER 1983
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Aug.
Apr.
P
T
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Dec.
Nov.
P
T
1
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to number
of persons unemployed (ratio)
0.60.2-
200*
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1967 = 100)
175110-
125100-
170-
[Comprehensive Employment!
48. Employee-hours in nonagricultural establishments
(ann. rate, bil. hours)
150-
iril nonagricultural activities ( [ p i l l i o n s ) ^ '
,
/*
85-
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions)
CXiC
S52827*
23 -
njf
40. Employees in goocls-producing industriest-mming,
manufacturing, construction (millions)
20 J
1
1956
57
58
59
$0
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
7i
76
77
78
79
Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 and 62.
IMJI
OCTOBER 1983
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Dec. toy.
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
Aug. Apr,
P T
i%v.
1
'1;
\
Im. July
P T
Mar.
P
Juiy
P
Nov.
T
-If
] Comprehensive Employment—Con, j
90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of wojtiif age (percent)
55§4-
| Comprehensive Unemployment]
37. Number unemployed, total (npons—inverted scale
43. Unemployment rate, total (|Krs«nt—inverted
10125i
910-
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent—inverted
,lg,U
11-
91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted sc
ILg.Lg.Lel
ID*
12141618ZO22-
\ . A
-4V^
44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed IS weeks and over (percent—inverted scale)
1-
v
IV
:
2-
9
34-
..JUUl
1956 57
S§
S©
©0
SI
62
§7
68
70
71
72
73
iUUdl
.
74
75
S77
78
80
81
82 1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 62.
18
OCTOBER 1983
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B2. Production and Income
Aug. Apr.
P T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Apr. Feb.
PI
Ian. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
51. Personal incofBefes transfer payments if
, (aifin. Hjjte, b f | | )
•'
\,
prr
s in mining, man
72 dollars (ann.
ftrtUlJ 1 ..".. 1 iV -.JI. j l . / . J . . j i . : J L J U U h l u .1 : i . - - I 1 .
1956 57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
J > i
J7
i M
78
r
" J U l • I.
79
80
JJL-'—i
SI
82 1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 63.
licit
OCTOBER 1983
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued
Aug. Apr,
P
,
Apr. Feb.
P
T
iL
,
T
'
. !
Nov.
Nev.
Mar,
P
T
P
T
1
Jan. July Jiilj;
F T P
Nov.
T
]1
_ ™ jj
^A
Industrial Production] ;i
i!
Dee.
\
ii
47. Industrial production, total (index: 1 9 6 7 = 1 0 0 ) ^ , ^ ^ ||
i;
160 •<
ii
J
/
/
\
.. , ji
lc.c,c|
130*
ii
. I'
ISO*
140^
I:
'i
110-
74. Industrial production, Nondurable manufacture
(index: 1 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 ) g X I
73, industrial production, durable mamjfactures
(index: 1 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 )
j
value or goods output in w z i j m a f j t
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)
!l
[Capacity Utilization^ |
83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturKt| (BEA), Q (percent)
80-
eo-
82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (FRB)f Q (percent)
908070*
84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials, Q (pwcent)
6090-
70
71
It
81
82 1S83
Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
20
OCTOBER 1983
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Aug. Apr.
P
.
T
.
..ji.
.
, . i
| Ordefe. and Deliveries li
'
l
'
II
!}
6. New orders, durable goods industries,
current dollars (bif. do I.)
7; New orders, durable i»Qods industries. 1972 dollars
" (bil.dol.)
X
8. New orders for consumer goods and materials
in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(bil. dol.; MCO moving a v ^ - 4 - t e r m )
~ T
LL
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(bil. dol.)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
receiving slower deliveries (percent)
1956 57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
7S
76
J7
78
79
SO
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.
BCD
OCTOBER 1983
21
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued
Aug. Apr.
P" T
ten. July July
P I P
Apr. Feb.
P T
Nov.
T
fCoriSiimption andTrfldel
».ir....
:.
H
I
i.m.
«
56. Manufacturing and trade sales te current
g and trade sales
(ML doO
75. Industrial production,
(index: 1967*= 100)
54. Sales of retail s t o r # M current dollars (
59. Sites of retail stores m 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)
iro
55. Personal.tpumption expenditures,
a u t o m i t e Q (ann. rate, M. dd.)
58> Index of consurt&f sentiment (1st Q
1986 §7
SS
UB
09
SI
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
70
71
72
73
74
79
76
77
78
79
80
81
1983
Current djita (or these series are shown on page 65.
22
OCTOBER 1983
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
Jan. July July
P I P
Apr. Feb.
P T
Aug. Apr.
P T
Wov.
T
[Fornjiation of BusinesS Enterprises)
12. Net business format^ (index: 1967-lOOli
jjTT
13. New business
10. Contracts and orders for pjant and
in current dollars;(M*idol.) | L L L |
[Business Investment Commitments [
f
r*
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 102 doKars (bil. dpi.)
24. Manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries,
nondefense, in current dollarsTO,dol.)
27, Manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries
nondefense, ml 1972 dollars {bil. dol.)
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial butldmgs
(mil. sq. ft. of floor area; MCQ moving avg.—b-term)'
"LLIJ
19S6 57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68 699
70
ILJ
71
i1
72
: l
!ULiUL_L.
73
74
'
75
i
76
.
77
- .,.....,._
78
,.-
7@
80
81
82 1983
l
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permiiission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems CompanyJ F.W. Dodge Divisio
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66,
IECII OCTOBER 1983
23
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
Aug. Apr.
Apr. Fab.
PI
i
P
Dec,
Nov.
Nov.
(War.
P
T
f
T
T
kw. Jt)!y
p
T
hi )j
Nov.
P
T
1 Busipss Investrpent.Commitments—Con.
97, Backlog of capital appropriates, manufacturing, Q
(bil, doL)
I Vl.LV.LK I
11. New capital appropn&t&ns, manufacturing
Q (by. dol.)
h
61. Business expendtares for new plant ^xi equipment, Q
(ann.rate,by!4*)
Investmefrt fxpentjitures 1
:
^T
i
Machinery and equipment salek m\ business
construction expenditures ( a n l ^ ^ e , bil. dol.) /*
Jr
!
production, N
: 1967-100)
1996 m
88 59
SI
62
S3
04
65
66
©7
68
69
81
§2 1983
Current d»ta Vor these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.
24
OCTOBER 1983
ItCII
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
| Busiriess Investment Expenditures—Con,
Nonresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
86. Total, Q
88. Producers' durable
87. Structures, Q
I Residential Construction Commitments and Investment!
started, total (ann. rate, millions)
28. New private housing u
LLL
29. New building permits, private housing units (inde# 19^7 = ip0)
:
89. Residential fixed investment, total, in 1972 (Mars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)
70-
m
60§0-
\
/
40-
I
ii
nKJ
1958 37
§8
59
jinJi
6© §!.
'
§2
'
63
i ' ^ !i i
'
,
64 65 66 67
J
l i JLUIJL-I
J L U U L J MI I H LI J
ui'
_Lfuui ll j
' , ' ,^. i,
68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76
aoI j
7(7
I
i
78
J, JL.1L J
79
80
SI
82 1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
ItCII
OCTOBER 1983
25
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Aug.
P"
Apr.
.pr. Feb.
P
T
Dec.
Hm.
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
P
T
T
I Inventory Ihvestmentll
Jan. Jdy
F
T
July
P
Nov.
T
30. Change in business inventories, 1$72 do«ars, Q (ann. r*t* ffcl.dol.)
+20-
HI
A
A
36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars
(ann. rate, bit. dol.; moving avg.—4-terrttl) i .
i
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
(ann. rate, biL dol.; MCD moving avg.—6
38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on feaftd and on order,
i! manufacturing (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—4-
1956 l\7
S8
99
60
61
62
63
64
69
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
7©
7/
78
79
SO
81
82 1983
'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data t j r these series are shown on page 68.
26
OCTOBER 1983
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued
Aug, Apr.
P T
Jan, July
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
Hand ahd on Order 1
71. Book value, manufacturing and bade [inventories^
J
current dofers (bil. dol.)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1972 dollars (bit. dol)
65. Book value of m
; of finished goods
rers' inventories
dol.)
77, Ratio, constant-dollar inventon
i and trade (ratio) iLg,Lg,Lg
78, Stocks of materials and supplies on
manufacturing (bil. dol.) '
""
1956 57
58
59
60
61
62
S3
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.
KCII
OCTOBER 1983
27
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Aug. Apr.
P T
Nov.
P
Dec. Ncw.
P
T
Apr. Feb.
P T
I Sensitive Commodity prices]
Ji
||
Mar.
T
93, c h a n g e j n proaucer prices for 28 sensitive materials
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
pr-fc
Jan. July July
F T P
Nov.
T
r-.-
99. Change in sensitive materials prfets (percent; moving
<tvg.™4-tefm1)
23.
Spot market prices, raw industrials2 (index: 1967 = 100)
A
19.
18.
Stock Drices. 500 common stodts iindex: 194143
Corporate profits after taxes, 1972 dollars, Q
(ann, rate, bil. <tol.)
16.
Corporate profits after taxes, current dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. doL) \T\Xi
JL/LAJI. .
©1
62
63
64
69
66
67
70
.:. :
71
. !.
: .
72 73
JiiUUl
74 75
76
77
78 79 80
81 82 1983
'This is a weigh tod 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
^Beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
28
OCTOBER 1983
IU
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Aug. Apr.
P T
Apr. Feb.
? 1
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
[ Profits and Profit Margins—Con.
80. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj,
1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, biL dok)
79. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCAdj,
current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
•4
20-
81. Ratio, corporate profits (after taxes| with inventory valuation arid
22. Ratio, corporate! profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic
of salesi all manufacturing corporations, ( I (cents)
1
\
ii
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector,
:
-A
Q(index: 1977-100)
|L,L,I•1
,
\
AS*
]„
](
V
35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 d c t a s J l
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)
34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bill' dol.)
19S6 57
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.
OCTOBER 1983
29
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Aug. Apr.
P
T
I Umt Labor Costs ayj
63. Unit labor cost, private business M i r , Q
(indek: 19)7== 100)
Labor cost (Current dollars) per unit of gross dot^stic product
(1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations, Q (doi*fs)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, !imanufactujjH- (index: 1 9 b / = l W ) "
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of ittlfenal income,
Q (percent)
19S6 W
58
59
00
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
78
77
78
79
80
81
82 1983
Current dJta far these series are shown on page 70.
30
OCTOBER 1983
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit
Aug. Apr.
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
Nov.
P
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Mar.
I
85. Change in money supply M l
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term) ,
Change in money supply M2
(percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term) JLC,U| S
i\
1041 Change irt total liquid assets (percent; moving avg.—4-term 1 )
10$. Money supply—Ml—in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)
•
,
i
||
1
i
1
'|
i
1
,
'
106. Money supply--M2 in 1972 d<>ltar&
|L,L,L|
(bil. dol.)
X
\
i|
i,
909850-
— *
9
750-
>
y
•
\
700-
\
650-
j[
'
809-
7.5-
107, Ratio, 6NP to money supply M l , Q (ratio)
CXC
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (ratio)
19S6 57
58
59
Ut 1983
'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 7 1 .
IMJI
OCTOBER 1983
31
eYGUOIL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Aug. Apr.
P
T
Dec.
Nov.
Ploy.
Mar,
P
T
P
T
Jsf:i iuly
P
T
July
Kw.
P
T
33. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
2
112. Change in business loans (ann. rate, bit. dol.;
MCD moving avg.—6-term)
113. Change in consumer installment credit (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
111. Change in credit outstanding—business and consumer
borrowing (ann. rate, percent)
t
110. Total private borrowing, Q (ann;
81
82 IS83
Current duta for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.
32
OCTOBER 1983
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Aug. Apr.
P T
Nov.
P
Mar.
T
Jan. July July
F T P
Nov.
T
[Credit Difficulties!
14.
39.
Current liabilities of business failures (mil. dol.—
inverted scale; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
Delinquency rate, 30 days and over]
(percent—inverted scale)
93.
94.
Free reserves (bil. dpi.™inverted scale)
Member bank borrowing from
the Federal Reserve (bil. dol.)
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
KM)
OCTOBER 1983
33
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Apr. Feb.
llntartet Rates 1
119. Federal funds rate (percent)
116. Corporate bond fields (percent) 4 * *
115. Treasury bond yields (p«fcent)
118. Secondary market ytekh on FHA mortgage (percent)
117, Municipal bond|-|kMt (percent)
JLJUUI.,
1SS6 07
38
5S
gO
il
62
S3
64
• .:
71
i
' L I L J U I J U L : '••'•.;
72
73
74
79
. • •
76
77
81
82 19S3
Current data for these series are shown on pages 72 and 73.
34
OCTOBER 1983
BCD
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
Jan, July
P T
July
P
T
llntertet Rates—Con,
67.
Bank rates on short-term business
109.
Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)
r
r
^ ~
H
,
'
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current
,, dollars (bl. dol.)
lOx. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972 dollars
!
Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income (percent)
1956 57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
BCD
OCTOBER 1983
35
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes
Aug.
Apr.
P
T
J6(.
Apr. Feb.
FT
N-V
Nov.
Mar.
T
P
I
ten, July
P
950. Twelve leading indicator components (6-mo. span—., l*mo. s p a n — )
I
July
Nov.
P
I
I Percent rising |
100-1
so
0
951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-mo. span—-, l*mo. span—-)
100
952. Six lagging indicator components
100
50-
961. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing— 20 industries (9-mo. span-^*, 1-mo. s p a n — )
100
962,, Initial claims, State unemployment insurance—51 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span——)
100 - i
50*
963, Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls—172-186 industries (6-m6. s p i n — , 1-mo, span—-)
J
§8
S§
i©
61
62
81
82
1983
Current duta far these series are shown on page 74.
36
OCTOBER
1983
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
Aug. Apr.
P T
Dec. Uo\i.
P
T
hpr. Feb.
P T
Nov.
Jan. July
P T
Mar.
T
July
P
Nov.
T
[Percent tog|
964. New orders, durable goods industries—34-35 industries (9-mo. s p a n ^ t t-mo. span—-)
so-
96b. Newly approved capital appropriations, deflated—17 industries (4-Q moving avg.**«, 1-Q span
)
90705030
J
966, Industrial production—24 industries (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. s p a n — )
100-1
50-
Spot market prices, raw industrials—13 industrial materials (9-mo. span—*, 1-mo. s p a n - r - )
100-
§0-
0-
968- Stock prices, 500 common stocks—49-82 ftrdustries (9-mo. $part*-^i-mo. span—1~
100-
50-
!
i
i
!
i1
!
I
960. Hetprofits, manufacturing—about 600 companies1 (4•Q: span)
90-
'•
^ _ w
|
r
A
70-
'•"V
50-
JLflAJUL.
1956 57
58
§9
60
61
63
©4
@@
S0
70
71
It
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
BCD
OCTOBER 1983
37
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
Nov.
P
-
Jan, July
P T
Mar.
1
No\
T
July
p
Mar.
T
P
Jan. JyJy
P T
*uly
P
Nov
T
r
Actual
*•
Anticipated • •
i *
Percent ritinf |
II
Actual
*»
Anticipated -
l
III
•*••
Percent rising
970, Business expenditures for new plant and
equipment—22 industries (1-Q span)
<•) Actual expenditures
1
100-
974. Number «l employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q 5pm) 1
701
i
(b) Later anticipations
975.
Level of inventories, manufacturing and tilde
i
J
70*
60-
*
5049-
971. ftew orders, manufacturing (4-Q span) 1
976. SdiRg prices, manufacturing
(4-Q jpm)
1
100-
A
90807060-
972, Htt profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)
1
977. Sefej prices, wholesale trade (4-Qspan)^
100*
\
VJ"'*
:• ,*«
80 «
7060*
973. H i t $alest manufacturing and trad* (4-Q
978. Seifcif prices, retail trade (4-Q span}
1
100-
S
• f*i/ W
J)
90"
8070 «
i
ii
60 J
1971 72
73
74
7©
77
78
79
81
82 1983
1971 72 73
74
7§
76
77
78
70
80
81
%t 1983
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about
1,400 buitinests executives.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
38
OCTOBER 1983
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C3. Rates of Change
Aug.
Apr.
Apr.
feb.
P
T
P
T
i. July
F
T
July
P
Nov.
T
"T
1-month spans
3-month spans
Percent change at armual rate
910c. Composite index of 1
920c. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators
930c. Composite index of 6 tagging indicators
50c. GNP in constant (1972) dollks (1-Q span)
47c. Index of industrial
48c. Employee-hours in nonagricultural eitsfefchments
51c* Personal income less transfer
payments in 1972 dollars
1956 57
58
59
6©
SI
62
63
$4
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
7S
76
17
78
79
82 1983
NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in] which the data for each series were published.
K C I ) OCTOBER 1983
39
O T H i R IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart Al. GNP and Personal Income
200.
223.
GNP in current (Mars, Q (ann. rate, bi. doll)
Personal income in current dollars
(ann. rate, on. <HH.;
224. Disposable personal income in current
dollars, Q (ann, rate, bit. dol.)
50.
213.
GNP in 1972 M a r s , Q (ann. rate, b i . dot.)
Final sales in 1972 doflars, Q (ann. rate, bil; 6o\.)
225. Disposable personal income in 1972
Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
217. Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. ratet thous. dol.)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in
aouars, u ^arw. rate, mous. aoi.)
195S S7
Bi
S9
BO 61
S2
S3
64 @S
Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.
40
OCTOBER 1983
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Jan. July July
P T
P
Aug, Apr.
P T
Urn,
T
Annual rate, bi lion dollars (current)
Personal consumption expenditures
237. Services, Q
236. Nondurable goods, Q
232. Durable goods, Q
Annual rate; billion dollars (1972)
;239. Services, Q
238. nondurable goods, Q
233. Durable goods, Q
1056
70
71
72
73
74
75
1983
Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 81,
BCII
OCTOBER 1983
41
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
Jan j %
Aug. Apr,
P
P
T
J;%
Km.
T
I [Annual rate, biton dollars {current)]
gross private dwriestk; investment—
^-241
Total fixed investmtraMQ
245. Change in business inventories, Q
Annual rate, button dollar (1972)1
243, Total Iked investment, Q
30. Change in business inventories, Q
19S©
Ul
SS
S9
g@
61
62
S3
@4
6S
66
67
70
71
72
73
74
75
7%
80
81
82 1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .
42
OCTOBER 1983
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)]
rnment purchases of goods and services
il
,
i,
267.
State and local governments, Q j|
\
1956 57
58
5©
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
78
79
' JU'
80
_Jl
81 82 1933
Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .
BCII
OCTOBER 1983
43
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA I
I
I
III
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
d
Chart A5. Foreign Trade
Aug.
Apr.
Apr. Feb.
FT
P
Jan, J;i!y
T
T
Ju'y
Nev.
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current) I
252. Exports of goods and services, Q * 4 |
253. Imports of goods ami services, Q
250. Net exports^ of goods and services, Q
[Annual rate, billion dollars (1972)1
256. Exports of goods and services, Q - ^
of goods and services, Q
1996 B7
58
§9
SO
Si
62
71
It
73
74
75
7©
77
78
79
80
81
B2 1083
Current data for these series are shown on page 82
44
OCTOBER 1983
IU II
. OTHER IMPORTANT El
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A6. National Income and Its Components
Aug. Apr.
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
Dec. Now.
P
T
Nov.
P
Jan. July
P T
Mar.
T
July
P
Nov.
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
3000«
1000 «
. Compensation of employees, Q
46® »
/T^*^
m
280240-
lie**
y
286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments^
360320 -
146*
120-
so-
40-
282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments, Q
20-
284. Rental income of persons with capital
consumption 'adjustment, Q
i
!
10-
1996 97
58
78
79
80
81
82 1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
ItCII
OCTOBER 1983
45
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A7. Saving
Jan. July
T
July
P
New.
T
Annual rate, bikMi dolars (turret)}
?90. Gross saving (private and
wv _ 'I." A . lifil
19S6 57
98
59
6©
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
7©
77
78
79
80
81
82 1983
Current diita tor these series are shown on pages 82 and 63.
46
OCTOBER 1983
RCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income
Aug. Apr.
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
Dec. Nov.
P
T
—
Nov.
P
Jan. July July
F T P
Mar
T
Nov.
T
-?r~
I Percent of GNP 1
235.
Personal consumption expenditures, Q
268.
ment purchases
State and local
.Q
265.
Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q
248.
249.
Nonresidential ftxed investnjent, Q
Residential fixed investment, Q
247,
Change in business inventories, Q
251. Net exporis of goods and services, Q
I Percent of National
64. Compensation of employees, Q
283.
Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
jj and capital consumption adjustments, Q
15-
£87* Corporate profit wttt^ inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments, Q
10-
5-
285.
1956 57
58
§9
Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
79
76
7^
78
79
SI
82 1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 83.
BCII
OCTOBER 1983
47
OTHIR IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
Chart B l . Price Movements
Nov.
Jan. July July
F T P
Nov,
P
Nov.
T
^1rt
. .. .4 . . a
310c. Implicit drfci deflator.
= 10(1
|lndex:
Jsn. J;.%
P T
Mar.
T
July
P
Nov.
T
[Percent change at annual rjrtt]
!
V
'
GNP (1-Q span)
i:
310. Implicit price deflator, GNP,
Q
180-
y
i
+1S*
III
+§«
311c* Fixed weighted price index, gross business product (1-Q span)
311. Fixed-welgMed price index, _^
gross business product, Q
Producer prices-^
14©
j!
|6'tTKHith spans ]
d
+30 «
330c. All commodities
9
Index: 1967 - 1 0 0
wm I
•
Producer prices—
i
..
-
/
T
300-
191
2S0«
330, All commodities
218 <
^
, Industrial commodities
/A\335c.
I
7 \L
200180 J
ii
:1
II
i
r
i|
/
ij
335. Industrial commodities
^
in—
j
-
\
268<
240-
:,
.
^ j
340'
320
300
28©
Vv
+19^
+20 -
v^
9
+N8-
1^1
200-
ii „
+30-
333c. Capital equipment
334c. Finished consumer go<Kls
IB71
72
J3
74
7$
76
77
78
7§
1971 72
73
I 1983
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86.
OCTOBER 1983
OTHER IMPOiTAWT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued
hug. Apr.
P
T
Apr.
feb,
P
T
Dec. Nov.
P T
Jan July
T
July
P
Nov.
T
Index: 1967-100
Consumer prices-
Percent ehange at annual rate
320c. All items,(6-month span)
322c. Food (6-month span)
C h a r t B 2 . Wages a n d P r o d u c t i v i t y
!'
Wages
341.
340.
Real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private norifarm economy1
Average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy (current dollars)1j
346.
Real average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q
verage nouriy compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, Q (current dollars)
1950 97
'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88.
BCJ)
OCTOBER 1983
49
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued
Jan. July
P T
July
P
N@v.
;
b-momh spans (awt rate) \,
\
j
t i \
in averagt ftOurly earnings of production
workers, private noitfarm economy1—
R *!
340c. Cuimit-dollar earnings
y compensation, aH employees,
6-month spam (ann. rate)
' •
business suitor, Q
' quarter
345c| Current-doWar compensation
. Real compensation
Negotiated wage ami benefit decisions, all industries—
341. iiFirst year average changes, Q (ami. rate)-*s
349.
Average changes over life of
i! contract, Q (ann. rate)
358. Output per hour, all persons,
nonfarmijbusiness sector, Q
. Output per Jmir, ail persons,
private busims sector, Q
!i
i
370c. Change in output per hour, private tetiess sector, Q
19S6 57
60
il
62
63
64
69
6@
€7
@3
S2 1983
69
'Adjustec for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 'One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them
comparable with the annualized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.
50
OCTOBER 1983
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
Aug. Apr.
P T
-)|-
-
Apr, Feb.
P T
if " - j f
Nov.
P
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Mar.
T
I
1
1
n
Jan. July
P T
ii
il
I
!
i
it
i
i
July
P
n-»irr.--'j-.-
II
j
i
•)..'
j
II "
i
120110-
"
.... j
441.
)•
^ J
! !
1
Nov.
T
"
100 «
Civilian labor ford , total (millions)
90-
.
u
^
442,
Tot^'ewiflfoyed (millions)
i
j
,
i
80-
i
70 J
Labor force participation rates (percent)—
451.
453.
Males 20 wears and over
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
452.
Females 20 years
37J Total unemployed
. Females 20 years
and over v
446.
447.
448.
L:
1956
Number employed part-time for economic
reasons (millions)
Both sexes \%\% years of age
Nunjfe«r unemployed,
workm (millions) ' " ^ j .
j/s^
f ' ^w
T /1 •
IL'I.
57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76
SI
82 1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 8 9 .
BCD
OCTOBER 1983
51
OTHIR IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures
Aug. Apr.
P
Oee. Mow.
P
T
Apr. Feb.
T
P
T
[Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
502. Federal GovernmenLeinfinrijtiire^G
501. Federal Government receipts, Q
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit, Q
511. State and local government receipts, Q
512. State and local government expenditures, Q
510. State and local government surplus or deficit, Q
S7
UB
m
SO
61
62
83
64
6B
81
§2 1983
Current data for these series aro shown on page 90.
52
OCTOBER 1983
KCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators
Jan. July
P T
July
P
T
[Advance Measures of Defense Activity|
517.
Defense Department gross obligations incurred
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.~6-term)
, 525. Defense Department military prime contract awards
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
543.
Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (bil. dol.)
548.
57
58
S9
60
61
62
63
64
65
Manufacturers' new orders, defense products
(bil. do!.; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
66
67
68
69
70
71
Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
OCTOBER 1983
53
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
<LtJt.V|
1956 57
53
60
It .
61
62
i3
64
i
' I
65
>
66
(
I i J -
67
68
69
Lfl
70
71
72
73
74
7S
Current cata for these series are shown on page 9 1 .
54
OCTOBER 1983
BCD
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
Aug. Apr.
P T
Jan. July July
F T P
Mow.
T
nteffttediate and Final, Measures of Defense Activity—Con
570. Employment in defen
Defense Department personnel (millions)—
577. Military, active duty
578. Civilian, direc
[National Defense Purchases!
564, Federal Government purchases of goods and
defense, Q (ann.rate, bildol.)
565. National defense purchases as a percent Of GNP, Q (percent)
1956 57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
69
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
79
76
78
79
80
81
82 1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 .
BCII OCTOBER 1983
55
OTHiR IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Chart E l . Merchandise Trade
Aug.
Apr.
i a t . J:iy
Apr, Feb.
T
F
Juty
Nov.
T
602. Exports, excluding military M shipments
(bil. dol.; MCD moving av&-~5-term)
604. Exports of agricu*tural products,
total (bil. dol.)!
\
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (bjl. doi)
612. General imports (bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.~4-term)
614. Imports of petrolebu and petroleum pdfucts'kbil. i<*-) hk \
yJ
616. Imports of automobiles and $®\\ (Pi; 6bl
19S6 57
SS
§9
SO
61
62
I 19S3
Current cata for these series are $hown on page 92.
56
OCTOBER 1983
BOII
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
Jan. July July
F T P
Aug. Apr.
P
I
Nov.
T
Annual rate, billion dollars I
Excess of receipts
xcess of payments
667.
Balance on goods and services, Q
668i! Exports, Q - ^
» " * 669. Imports, Q
Merchandise, adjusted—
622.
Merchandise trade balance, Q
- * - B 2 0 . ; Imports, Q
Investment incbmen651.
Income <in U.Sl investmertts
. Income on foreign investments in the U.S., Q
79
80
81
32 1933
NOTE: Annual totals are shown for the period prior to 1960.
Current data for these series are shown on page 93.
OCTOBER 1983
57
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F
I
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart F l . Industrial Production
Aug.
Apr.
P
T
Dgc. Hm,
P
T
Apr. Feb.
P
T
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
Jan. inly
F
T
July
P
Nev,
1
Index: 1967 = 100
260M0-
Industrial production—
728. Japan - ^
160-
721. OECD European countries
W0-
I
1956 57
58
Si
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
Ji
11
83,
82 1983
Current data for these series are shown on page 94.
58
OCTOBER 1983
ItCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Chart F2. Consumer Prices
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
Chart F3. Stock Prices
Jan, July
F
| Percent change at annual rate]
T
July
P
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
P
T
Jan. July
T
P
[6-month spans |
Consumer prices-
Nov.
P
T
{Index: 1967^1001
Stock prices—
1
July
T
aooi
!
; -; •
19. United States
•: ;
7
:
320c. United States
1
• • ^ ^ A
!
' •
/
.,.:, ,
1
V"",-
180160140120100-
i:
1101
;.
800<
700-j
i
+ 30"
1
748. Japan
738c. Japan
" !
|[
J:
: :i
i
^
iii
:;
jit/
600500-
"^ tii
400-
I
+20-
HV
+ 10-
0'
1 ^
!,
=
i
^ j;
,;!
300-
200-1
; 745. WestGe
180-1
!
•:
,: .: .
..
lfinJ
'/
+ 20-
140 H
735c. West Germany \
!
V
ii
;,i
!!
i[
j
w.
:;
) :;
' !' ••
:
. jjl]
'
• ;;
:
, i:
• ••
,
;
120 A
100-1
260-
•;
\
'• •'
j
t
'
[
i
••
j
i
•
i
_ i: ii •' •: :: •'
/
746. Francje
220180140-
10
100§00450400350-
742. United Kingdom
L-
300:: •
y / x
:; •
'• ;•
10
250200150-
1/ j
100 J
1971 72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82 1983
1971 72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82 1983
Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.
BCII OCTOBER 1983
59
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
I
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
COMPOSITE INDEXES
Year
and
month
910. Index of
12 leading indicators (series
1, 5,8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36,
99, 106, 111)
920. Index of
4 roughly
coincident indicators (series
41, 47, 51,57)
930. Index of
6 lagging indicators (series
62,77, 91,
95, 101, 109)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
940. Ratio,
coincident
index to
lagging index
(1967-100)
Leading indicator subgroups
913. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1, 2, 3,
5)
(1967 = 100)
914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29)
915. Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 8, 32, 36,
99)
(1967-100)
(1967 100)
916. Profitability (series
19, 26, 80)
(1967-100)
917. Money
and financial
flows (series
104, 106, 111)
(1967 100)
1981
January
February
March
142.1
140.4
141.7
146.8
147.2
147.2
121.7
120.7
119.0
120.6
122.0
123.7
94,
94,
94.1
110.7
109.3
109.8
100.5
100.5
100.7
98.2
98.8
99.0
122.2
122.1
122.2
April
May
Jine
144.6
144.5
143.2
147.1
146.9
147.5
119.0
122.2
122.4
123.6
120,
120,
94,
94.
94.5
110.5
109.3
107.3
101.8
102.5
102.6
98,
98,
98,
123.5
123.2
123.1
August
September . .
142
142
139
147.6
147.3
146.5
122.
123.
124.
120
119.
117.5
95.0
93.6
91.4
107.1
107.0
106,3
102
102,
101,
98.2
98.5
96.9
123.3
123,8
122.9
October
November . .
December . .
136.9
137.0
136.2
144.5
143.0
140.9
125,0
124.5
124.4
115.6
114.9
113.3
90,
90.
89.3
104,
105,
105.1
99.8
98.7
97.8
96.9
97.1
96.2
121.7
122.2
122.2
135.1
135.7
134.7
138.4
139.9
139.2
126.1
125.3
125.1
109.8
111
111
(NA)
104.2
104.2
104.0
96.7
96,
96.
94.5
93.2
92.6
123.3
122.1
122.2
April
May
June
136.0
136.2
135.5
138.0
138.8
137.3
125.9
125.1
124.8
109.6
111.0
110.0
104.9
104.2
102.9
96,
97.
97.6
93.1
93.0
92.4
123.0
122.4
122.2
July
August
September . . .
136.2
136.1
137.5
136.
135.
134.
124.3
122.3
121.4
109.7
110.5
110.8
103.9
102.9
103.4
97.8
98.1
98.3
92,
92.
93.
122.5
124.5
124.2
October
November , . .
December , . .
138.6
rl39.4
rl40.9
132.9
rl32.7
132.6
120.2
118.2
116.7
110.6
rll2.3
113.6
rlO4.7
rlQ5.4
rl07.0
98.0
97.0
96.4
95.0
95.5
96.4
122./
122. S
122.4
January
February
March . . . . . .
rl45.2
rl47.7
rl50.6
134.3
133.5
134.6
115.5
115.6
114.2
116.3
115.5
117.9
rlO6.2
rl07.0
rlO7.2
97.7
99,3
101.4
97.6
98.6
rlOO.5
127.2
129.7
131.2
April .
May . . . . . . .
Juns
rl52.6
rl54.4
rl57.2
135.6
137.9
139.8
113.4
rll0.8
109.5
119.6
H24.5
127.7
rlO7.8
rlO9
101.8
102.2
102.3
rlO2.5
rlO4.6
105.4
130.9
129.7
July
August
Septemaer . . .
rl58.
158.
J>3160.2
rl40.7
140.4
E>*142.7
rlO9.8
110.8
rl28.1
rl26.7
E>Pl29.7
rlO2.9
H>rlO4.7
plO4.2
|H)1O6.O
plOS.8
(NA)
[8>rl33.1
P132.9
(NA)
Jily
••
1982
2
Jaiuaiy
February
March
1983
nio.o
E>rll0
109.4
rlO8.3
pl09.0
October
November . , .
December . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by[H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issie. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.
'See 'New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iii of the February 1982 issue.
^Includes a substitute value for series 1. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iii of the March 1982 issue.
Excludes series 36 and 111, for which data are not available.
^Excludes series S7, for which data are not available.
"Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.
60
OCTOBER 1983
ito
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
| H
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
1 L, L
I, L, L
L.C.L
1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production workers,
manufacturing
(Hours)
(Hours)
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100 employees)
L.C.L
L.L.L
5. Average
weekly initial
claims, State
unemployment
insurance'
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
(Thous.)
(Per 100 employees)
L,lg,U
4. Quit rate,
manufacturing
(Per 100 employees)
L, Lg.U
L, Lg, U
U, C, C
60. Rstio, helpwante d advertising to persons
unem iloyed
46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising
in newspapers
48. Employeehours in nonagricultural
establishments
fotio)
(1967 = 100)
(Ann. rate,
bit. hours)
_ < |
(a)
(a)
(a)
1981
Comprehensive
Employment
Job Vacancies
Marginal Employment Adjustments
January
February
March
40.3
39.8
39.9
3.0
2.9
2.9
3.5
3.5
3.4
424
410
413
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.4
1.3
0.474
0.478
0.467
128
129
125
171.56
170.07
170.79
April
May
June
40.0
40.2
40.0
2.9
3.0
2.9
3.4
3.1
3.4
395
401
405
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
0.447
0.432
0.448
118
118
121
169.70
170.70
170.94
July
August .
September
39.9
39.9
39.5
2.9
2.9
2.7
3.4
3.2
2.9
395
421
483
1.0
1.4
1.7
1.5
1.3
1.3
0.466
0.440
0.403
123
119
112
171.19
171.09
167.31
October
November
December
39.6
39.4
39.2
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.9
3,1
2.7
517
539
551
2.2
2.3
2.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
0.378
0.366
0.346
110
111
109
169.68
168.66
168.58
January
February
March
37.5
39.5
39.0
2.3
2.5
2.3
(NA)
563
514
566
(NA)
(NA)
0.338
0.317
0.289
106
103
96
164.25
168.40
167.74
April
May
June
39.0
39.1
39.1
2.4
2.3
2.3
566
585
551
0.255
0.249
0.242
88
87
85
167.21
167.61
166.58
July
August
September
39.1
39.0
38.8
2.3
2.3
2.3
533
605
653
0.228
0.212
0.192
83
78
73
166.05
165.46
165.30
October . .
November . . .
December
38.9
39.0
39.0
2.3
2.3
2.3
651
616
531
0.195
0.195
0.205
76
78
83
164.29
163.24
164.01
January
February
March
39.7
39.2
39.5
2.4
2.4
2.6
507
478
479
0.216
0.215
0.217
83
83
83
165.78
163.53
164.44
April
May
June
40.1
40.0
40.1
2.9
2.7
2.9
470
453
406
0.213
0.231
0.246
81
87
92
166.10
166.94
167.40
40.2
40.3
H>p40,7
3.0
r3.1
H>p3.3
E>380
408
387
0.281
rO.270
P>p0.283
|H>100
r 168.08
r167.28
E>Pl69.44
1982
1983
July
August
September
p99
October
November . . . .
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
*Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
a
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" (item 2) on page iii of the February 1982 issue.
OCTOBER 1983
61
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^ J
Minor Economic
Process
Comprehensive Employment—Continued
Timing Class
Year
and
month
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Contfnued
Comprehensive Unemployment
U, C, C
c, c,c
42. Persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
41. Employees
on nonagriculturat payrolls,
establishment
survey
40. Employees
in goodsproducing industries (mining, mfg., construction)
90. Ratio,
civilian employment to total
population of
working age
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Percent)
I. C, U
U, Lg, U
t, Lg, I)
L, Lg, U
37. Number of
persons unemployed, labor
force survey
43. Unemployment rate,
total
45. Average
weekly insured unemployment rate,
State programs l
91. Average
duration of
unemployment
(Thous.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Weeks)
L, Lg, U
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
1981
Janunry
February
March
96,544
96,803
97,148
90,920
90,990
91,030
25,600
25,516
25,579
58.38
58.43
58.58
8,048
8,032
7,967
7.5
7.4
7.3
3.5
3.4
3.4
14.3
14.0
13.9
April
97,487
97,597
97,033
91,128
91,131
91,322
25,530
25,503
25,654
58.80
58.72
58.31
7,860
8,133
8,047
7.2
7.5
7.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
13.
13.
14.1
September . . .
97,428
97,313
96,746
91,484
91,424
91,411
25,720
25,653
25,586
58.44
58.36
57.94
7,854
8,053
8,271
7.2
7.4
7.6
3.2
3.2
3.3
14.0
14.3
13.6
October
November . . .
December . , .
96,981
96,840
96,458
91,295
91,041
90,730
25,445
25,242
24,992
58.02
57.88
57.51
8,673
9,025
9,389
8.0
8.3
8.6
3.5
3.8
4.1
13.5
13.2
12.9
January
February
March
96,309
96,328
96,230
90,396
90,417
90,207
24,711
24,670
24,483
57.46
57.41
57.29
9,346
9,669
9,881
8.6
8.8
9.0
4.1
4.1
4.3
13.4
14.0
13.9
April
May
June
96,128
96,548
96,310
90,024
90,016
89,775
24,307
24,226
24,001
57.17
57.40
57.17
10,256
10,384
10,465
9.3
9.4
9.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
14.3
14.9
16.3
July
August
September . . .
96,143
96,254
96,180
89,450
89,264
89,235
23,843
23,672
23,530
57.06
57.06
56.92
10,828
10,931
11,315
9.8
9.9
10.2
4.5
4.7
5.0
15,
16,
16.6
October
November . . .
December . . .
95,763
95,670
95,682
88,938
88,785
88,665
23,287
23,131
23,061
56.65
56.57
56.50
11,576
11,906
12,036
10.5
10.7
10.8
5.2
5.2
5.0
17.1
17,3
18.0
January
February
March
95,691
95,670
95,729
88,885
88,746
88,814
23,186
23,049
23,030
56.46
56.38
56.36
11,446
11,490
11,381
10.4
10.4
10.3
4.5
4.5
4.4
19.4
19.0
19.1
April
May
June
96,088
96,190
97,264
89,090
89,421
89,844
23,159
23,347
23,518
56.51
56.52
57.16
11,328
11,192
11,146
10.2
10.1
10.0
4.4
4.1
3.8
19.0
20.4
22.0
97,758
98,074
E> 98,655
r90,152
r89,735
E>p90,468
r23,724
r23,832
0>p23,927
57.39
57.49
H>57.66
10,590
10,699
E>10,423
9.5
9.5
>9.3
3.6
3.4
0>p3.3
21
19
20.2
May
Jjne
My
August
1982
1983
July
August
September . . .
October
November . . .
December . , .
Seo note on page 60.
Griiphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.
'
exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
62
OCTOBER 1 9 8 3
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued
B
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
PRODUCTION AND INCOME
Industrial Production
Comprehensive Output and ncome
Timing Class
c, c, c
50. Gross national product
in 1972 dollars
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
C, C, C
C, C,C
52. Constant
(1972) dollars
51. Personal
income, less
transfer payments, in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
53. Wages and
salaries in
mining, mfg.,
and construction in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
C, C, C
Persona income
223. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
c, c, c
47. Index of
industrial
production,
total
(1967 = 100)
:, c, c
C.L.L
73. ndex of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures
74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures
(l§67-100)
(1967=100)
c, c, c
49. Value of
goods output
in 1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1981
January
February
March
I,5l6!l
2,316.9
2,336.5
2,361.4
l,233;0
1,236.2
1,240.9
1,061.3
1,065.0
1,069.1
234.0
230.8
231.5
151.4
151.8
152.1
141.0
140.8
142.1
165.6
166.2
165.3
69U2
April
May
June
l,512!s
2,375.1
2,390.6
2,416.9
1,241.6
1,242.5
1,251.6
1,070.8
1,072.5
1,081.1
231.6
231.3
232.2
151.9
152.7
152.9
142.5
143.5
143.2
165.9
166.4
165.8
692! 3
July
August
September
1,525!8
2,463.7
2,494.6
2,514.3
1,266.0
l',274.7
1,274.4
1,088.7
1,098.3
1,098.4
231.7
231.0
228.3
153.9
153.6
151.6
143.6
143.4
140.9
167.1
167.3
165.9
703! 2
October
November
December
l,506*.9
2,513.4
2,518.7
2,517.6
1,268.1
1,263.8
1,257.5
1,092.6
1,087.6
1,081.1
227.6
225.3
222.5
149.1
146.3
143.4
137.8
134.4
131.3
2,518.1
2,530.2
2,535.8
1,249.1
1,255.7
1,256.0
1,074.6
1,080.0
1,078.7
223.0
223.8
222.7
140.7
142.9
141.7
127.1
129.3
128.2
155.1
157.8
157.3
• 162.8
160.3
157.4
683 '.7
1982
January
February
March
1,485*8
...
April
May
June
1,489*3
2,549.0
2,568.0
2,572.5
1,258.1
1,263.8
1,254.3
1,079.3
1,084.3
1,076.0
221.6
220.2
217.4
140.2
139.2
138.7
126.7
126.1
125.5
156.1
155.0
155.3
664! 6
1,485*.7
2,589.8
2,586.7
2,597.4
1,256.0
1,250.8
1,251.2
1,072.2
1,067.5
1,066.6
215.5
213.3
211.9
138.8
138.4
137.3
125.9
124.9
123.5
155.7
156.9
156.7
66K6
1,480.7
2,617.8
2,633.1
2,645.0
1,253.7
1,259.9
1,264.9
1,065.6
1,068.0
1,072.2
208.9
207.9
208.6
135.7
' 134.9
135.2
120.3
119.3
119.9
156.2
155.3
155.6
652 ! l
January . .
February
March
l,49C)!i
2,652.6
2,650.5
2,670.1
1,264.3
1,262.1
1,269.1
1,075.9
1,072.6
1,078.0
212.3
212.3
213.0
137.4
138.1
140.0
122.5
123.9
126.3
157.4
159.0
160.7
656! 9
April
May
June
l,525."i
2,689.0
2,719.3
2,732.6
1,267.8
1,278.5
1,285.3
1,077.9
1,087.3
1,094.0
214.8
215.7
217.6
142.6
144.4
rl46.4
129.1
131.0
rl33.2
163.3
165.4
rl67.8
681*8
E>pi,554!4
r2,747.4
r2,755.7
H>p2,781.0
rl,285.6
r1,283.5
0>pl,289.9
rl,096.8
ml,096.2
E>pl,102.9
r219.1
r219.8
H>p221.0
rl49.6
rl51.4
(H>pl53.7
rl36.8
rl38.6
|[H>pl41.7
rl70.2
rl72.1
E>pl74.2
i>p7Ol!6
July
August
September
'
October
November . . . . . . . .
December
668! 1
...
1983
July , . .
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.
OCTOBER 1983
63
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
;. .
Capacity Utilization
Timing Class
Year
and
month
^ g
| j f | PRODUCTION AND INCOME—Continued
LC U
83. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(BEA)
(Percent)
82. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(FRB)
(Percent)
CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES
Orders and Deliveries
L.C.U
84. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
materials
(Percent)
L.L.L
L,L,L
I.L.L
L, Lg, U
7. Constant
(1972) dollars
8. New orders
for consumer
goods and
materials in
1972 dollars
25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable goods industries
6. Current
dollars
(Bit. dol.)
L, L,L
I,
U
32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries ®
(Percent
reporting)
1981
80.6
82.7
83.17
83.54
83.77
38.52
38.54
38.41
33.31
34.50
34.15
1.13
0.93
-0.30
316.32
317.25
316.95
46
50
52
80.
81.9
87.38
88.31
88.20
39.72
39.92
39.61
34.92
35.29
35.16
.92
,37
,86
318.87
321.23
322.09
56
52
48
80.3
82.0
86.94
85.84
83.38
38.83
38.15
36.94
34.45
33.44
32.48
0.84
-0.32
-0.67
322.93
322.61
321.94
46
48
43
75.9
76.2
78.47
79.03
76.11
34.65
34.66
33.34
31.00
30.22
30.50
-3.33
-1.84
-3.43
318.61
316.77
313.34
38
32
30
72.9
73.0
76.70
77.36
78.18
33.54
33.82
34.12
29.18
29.45
30.55
0.23
-1.17
-0.55
313.57
312.40
311.85
32
36
35
April
May
June
71.6
70.7
76.74
76.35
76.16
33.44
33.15
32.93
29.30
30.77
30.29
310.78
307.45
304.41
31
30
38
July
August
September , .,
71.0
69.4
75.56
72.96
72.35
32.63
31.49
31.14
30.29
29.60
29.62
301.12
296.83
292.76
37
40
40
69.0
67.1
70.74
71.07
76.18
30.42
30.45
32.57
27.91
28.22
28.25
2.68
291.02
289.08
291.76
44
40
38
Janusry
Febrjary
March
78
April
May
June
78
July
August
Septdmbur ., ,
76
October
November . . .
December . . .
72
1982
January
Febnary
March
it
69
October
Novenber . . .
December . . ,
1983
January
February
March
April ,
May
June
July
August
September . . .
70.7
70,1
82.36
77.45
79.95
35.28
32.93
33.98
31.54
31.52
31.90
H>4.61
-0.32
0.36
296.37
296.05
296.41
41
42
50
73.8
73.5
83.10
84.46
H>90.90
35.30
r35.71
D38.24
32.03
r33.91
34.20
2,86
1.78
4.32
299.27
301.05
305.37
52
52
52
E>P77.3
E>p77.4
88.23
r89.98
P89.50
37.04
r37.68
P37.52
34.86
[H>r35.96
P35.06
2.59
r2.06
p0.74
307.96
r310.02
E>p310.76
52
H>61
60
70
E>p73
(NA)
Octobttr
November . . .
December . . .
See ncte on page 60.
Graph;; of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.
64
OCTOBER 1983
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Formation of Business Enterprises
Consumption and Trade
c, c, c
c, c, c
Manufacturing and trade sales
and
month
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continued
56. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)
57. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)
C L,C
75. Index of industrial production, consumer
goods
(1967 = 100)
C L, U
U, L, U
Sales of retail stores
54. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)
59. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil. dol.)
L, C, C
55. Personal
consumption
expenditures,
automobiles
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L,L, L
58. Index of
consumer,
sentiment
1*66=100)
L, Lr L
12. Index of
net business
formation
(1967-100)
L, L, L
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
(Number)
1981
January
February
March
355,151
355,316
356,688
162,132
161,645
161,661
146.9
147.8
148.3
85,355
86,058
86,978
45,547
45,678
45,802
73.2
71.4
66.9
66.5
121.6
120.7
120.8
46,039
48,588
47,972
April
May
June
358,809
359,239
360,912
162,252
161,594
162,371
148.9
150.7
150.3
86,746
86,939
87,948
45,488
45,328
45,735
66.4
72.4
76.3
73.1
121.9
119.1
117.3
49,413
48,997
49,172
July
August
September . . .
360,189
360,384
357,454
161,262
160,902
159,032
150.7
149.6
147.8
87,759
88,775
88,562
45,377
45,737
45,300
73.7
74,
77,
73.
118.2
118.7
117.6
49,038
48,631
48,450
October
November . . .
December . . .
352,092
349,712
345,958
156,389
155,558
153,354
146.5
144.0
142.0
87,231
87,358
87,409
44,506
44,412
44,303
64.0
70.3
62.5
64.3
114.8
117.4
115.2
47,947
49,413
47,556
January
February
March
340,746
345,687
347,061
150,871
153,723
154,188
139.6
141.8
141.5
86,542
88,049
87,701
43,576
44,492
44,293
70.4
71.0
66.5
62.0
113.2
115.6
113.5
43,330
47,234
46,899
April
May
June
344,934
353,110
349,742
152,619
155,866
153,409
142.1
143.6
144.8
88,468
90,813
88,603
44,636
45,635
44,103
71.4
65.
67,
65.7
115.2
114.7
112.1
46,876
46,995
45,936
July
August
September . . .
347,676
343,426
342,882
152,957
151,770
151,184
145.8
144.1
143.4
89,469
89,069
89,897
44,401
44,181
44,526
74.0
65,
65,
69.3
112.4
112.6
110..4
44,525
46,981
45,552
October
November . . .
December . . .
336,905
338,722
338,391
148,456
149,877
149,959
142.2
141.3
142.0
90,905
92,492
92,459
44,847
45,720
45,749
79.7
73.4
72.1
71.9
111.5
112.9
114.4
45,530
48,474
0)57,507
January
February
March
345,337
341,490
348,009
153,884
152,079
154,416
143.6
143.4
144.3
92,308
91,164
93,263
45,562
45,108
45,988
80.7
70.4
74.6
80.8
111.4
113.3
112.7
49,999
48,296
48,032
April
May
June
351,100
363,925
373,572
155,086
160,627
E>164s405
95,449
98,431
99,173
46,812
48,133
E>48,448
91.4
89.1
93.3
92.2
112.0
114.8
E> 116.4
p50,992
r372,434
H>p373,573
(NA)
rl62,776
pl62,866
(NA)
E>r99,521
r97,955
p99,480
r48,429
r47,482
p48,058
E>p94.2
3.9
89.9
rl!5.5
rll2.4
P115.3
1982
1983
July
August
September . . .
147,
150,
rl52.
155.0
rl56.0
H>pl58.2
48,903
50,211
(NA)
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60,
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23.
OCTOBER 1983
65
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q
Mi not Economic
Process
Business Investment Commitments
Timing Class
L.L.L
L,L, L
Contracts and orders for plant
and equipment
Year
and
month
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued
10. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)
20. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Bil. dol.)
L.L.L
Value of manufacturers' new orders,
capital goods industries, nondefense
24. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)
L.C, U
UL.L
9. Construction contracts for commercial and industrial buildings *
27. Constant
(1972) dollars
Square feet of
floor space
(Bil. dol.)
(Millions)
Square meters of
floor space a
(Millions)
U,Lg ( U
C Lg, Lg
11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations. 1,000
manufacturing
corporations
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
1981
January
February
March
28.66
26.59
27.76
14.60
13.63
13.98
25.02
22.70
23.99
13.00
11.92
12.33
83.72
83.86
83.79
7.78
7.79
7.78
27.70
April
May
June
30.56
28.61
28.96
15.14
14.28
14.47
26.00
24.56
24.62
13.16
12.52
12.58
79.64
84.75
81.01
7.40
7.87
7.53
28! 06
July
August
September . . ,
28.12
28.14
27.98
13.72
14.24
14.26
24.16
24.74
24.36
12.00
12.77
12.70
73.46
78.67
68.12
6.82
7.31
6.33
26.71
October
November , . .
December . ..
27.09
27.82
25.58
13.60
14.48
12.87
22.66
24.30
21.05
11.68
12.96
10.92
74.26
70.77
70.65
6.90
6.57
6.56
23! 04
26.77
29.36
25.94
13.22
14.44
13.14
21.86
22.41
21.71
11.14
11.45
11.30
58.18
63.29
61.15
5.40
5.88
5.68
25! 18
26.23
23.99
23.41
14.05
11.81
11.36
22.81
20.31
19.93
12.59
10.23
9.86
58.93
53.71
64.87
5.47
4.99
6.03
20! 02
July
August
September . . .
23.42
22.83
r23.63
11.32
11.24
rll.84
19.93
18.74
20.22
9.84
9.47
10.36
57.80
59.78
55.95
5.37
5.55
5.20
18.44
October
November . . .
December . ..
23.46
23.63
24.37
11.95
11.52
12.77
20.13
19.98
19.68
10.53
9.94
10.75
54.65
50.69
49.55
5.08
4.71
4.60
21*. 49
23.35
24.21
23.80
11.79
11.76
12.70
20.51
19.18
20.03
10.58
9.62
11.09
66.89
57.77
52.65
6.21
5.37
4.89
20! 18
26.49
H>28.66
27.69
rl3.85
H4.38
12.20
11.63
13.01
54.32
61.20
65.40
5.05
5.69
6.08
p20.96
rl4.48
22.59
22.23
(H>24.29
25.10
r26.76
P27.8O
rl2.53
13.43
H>pl4.81
21.58
r23.03
P24.01
11.02
rll.82
E>pl3.18
61.78
65.26
•1)69.20
5.74
6.06
>6.43
(NA)
93.44
96! 18
97! 07
92! 46
1982
January
February
March
April
May
June
90.20
82.88
74! 15
70.76
1983
January
February
March
Aptil
Ma/
June
Juljr
August
September . . .
70! 04
p7l!36
(NA)
October
November . . .
Decemtier . . ,
Sec note on page 60.
Graphs of these $«rie$ are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
l
Tliis is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
'Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
66
OCTOBER 1983
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q j
Minor Economic
Process
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Continued
Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment
Business Investment Expenditures
Timing Class
Year
and
month
C Lg, Lg
C, U, Lg
C Lg, U
61. Business
expenditures
for new plant
and equipment,
total
69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business
construction
expenditures
76. Index of
industrial production, business
equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1967=100)
C, Lg, C
Lg, Lg, Lg
C Lg, C
Nonresidential fixed investment ir 1972 dollars
87. Structures
86. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
,L,L
L, L, 1
28. Yew
priva te housing
unit! started,
total
1
nn. rate,
nous.)
29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits
(1967=100)
L, I , L
89. Residential
fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1981
311.95
333.32
331.22
343.78
177.7
177.5
179.3
170.9
50.1
120.8
1,588
1,279
1,305
98.6
96.8
95.6
48.8
316.42
346.11
345.55
353.96
181.0
182.0
183.6
173.4
51.6
121.7
1,332
1,150
1,047
96.1
94.7
78.8
47.3
328!i9
350.15
359.04
360.03
184.8
184.4
182.7
177.6
53*5
123.5
1,035
949
900
75.5
71.8
68.4
43.*1
329.'43
349.75
357.85
353.04
180.5
179.0
179.0
176 .'3
54.*6
12i.*8
866
839
906
59.0
60.4
64.3
39.4
January
February
March
334.30
344.06
343.89
172.2
171.6
169.0
877
326.95
173.6
...
54.3
119.3
• •.
911
920
64.6
66.2
71.3
36.3
April
May
June
321.87
328.44
334.75
332.35
164.9
159.9
156.7
167.1
...
54.0
1,028
910
71.1
76.8
74.6
37.8
...
113.i
•.•
July
August
September
313.76
326.06
316.23
320.13
154.9
153.9
150.5
163.3
53.0
116.3
1,185
1,046
1,134
86.0
75.0
83.1
36.5
303.18
308.63
310.31
310.02
147.1
146.4
148.1
160.5
52.2
108.3
1,142
1,361
1,280
93.2
99.1
107.1
40.6
January
February
March
293.03
307.70
300.14
314.18
146.6
142.7
143.7
159.9
50.3
109.6
1,694
1,784
1,605
116.9
119.5
118.5
45.5
April
May
June
293.* 46
312.41
305.68
146.9
147.7
rl50.2
163.0
48-3
114.7
1,506
1,807
1,736
124.1
132.1
142.2
52.6
E>pll9.0
rl,804
[IH>rl,909
1
pi,652
E>143.9
p49.7
January
February
March
.......
April
May
June
July
August
September
. ...
.. .
October
December
1982
...
October
November
December
. .
...
911
1983
B>332.43
July
August
September
a313.04
October
November
December
a326.*73
r318.94
p321.07
(NA)
rl53.0
rl54.8
E>Pl58.4
*
***
E>Pl68.7
133.4
121.6
(H>p56.9
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
OCTOBER 1983
67
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Inventories on Hand and on Order
Inventory Investment
I, L, L
L, L, L
L, L,L
30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars
36. Change in inventories on
hand and on order, 1972 dollars
31. Change
in book value
of mfg. and
trade inventories, total
(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)
Monthly
data
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
Smoothed
data 1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L L, L
38. Change
in stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg.
(Bil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)
70. Constant
(1972) dollars
{Bil. dol,)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
L, Lg, Lg
65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished
goods, book
value
77. Ratio,
constantdollar inventories to
sales, mfg.
and trade
78. Stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg.
(Bil. dol.)
(Ratio)
(Bil. dol.)
1981
January
February
Maich
3.0
-12.56
17.52
-8.77
-5.23
-3.72
-0.75
38.6
61.4
20.7
April
May
Junt!
8.9
-5.57
25.49
1.01
-0.10
2.39
5.35
July
Augjst
September . . .
16.1
4.67
4.52
11.65
October
November . . .
Decomber , . .
6.0
1.36
0.32
-0.38
496.10
501.21
502.94
263.85
265.04
264.56
79.89
81.01
82.63
23.
44,
37.
1.26
1.66
1.27
504.87
508,56
511.70
264.42
266,30
266.20
82.96
84.65
85.30
223.77
225.42
226.70
8.68
6.90
5.17
27.6
53.8
46.9
,05
,10
0.75
514.00
518.48
522.39
266.72
267.72
269.30
85.50
87.08
88.30
1.69
227.75
226.65
227,40
-9.35
2.18
-20.83
4.61
1.88
-3.92
21.3
35.9
-12.1
-1.05
524.17
527.16
526.15
269.65
270.78
269,42
89.34
90.00
89.55
,72
,74
1.76
224.39
222,61
221.56
-10.2
-26.62
-23.18
-10.81
-12.21
-19.32
-21.87
-30.1
-28.3
-10.2
-1.87
-2.82
-1.88
523.65
521.29
520.44
267.83
266.93
266.28
89.14
89.78
89.90
1.78
1.74
1.73
219.69
216.87
214.99
April
May
June
-3.4
-4.87
-24.35
-7.56
-16.58
-13.15
-12.80
35.2
-51.0
23.1
-2.08
-2.03
-3.18
523.37
519.12
521.04
267.04
265.27
265.88
89.19
88.32
87.56
,75
,70
.73
212.91
210.88
207.70
July
August
September . . .
-1.3
0.37
-16.70
-1.50
-11.39
-9.24
-6.95
1.3
1.3
-3.1
-1.57
-2.12
-2.45
521.14
521.26
521.00
266.21
265.79
266.01
88.22
88.30
87.79
1.74
1.75
1.76
206.13
204.01
201.56
October
November . . .
December . , .
-22.7
-20.08
-38.14
-11.29
-9.35
-16.33
-21.54
-14.4
-70.9
-23.4
-1.94
-1.85
-1.69
519.80
513.89
511.94
264.90
262.12
261.21
87.61
86.40
85.07
1.78
1.75
1.74
199.62
197.77
196.07
-15.4
-16.13
6.86
-15.96
-22.51
-14.35
-7.63
-52.7
1.4
-53.3
0.79
1.00
0.71
507.55
507.66
503.22
259.22
259.42
257.57
83.78
83.29
82.41
1.68
,71
,67
196.86
197.87
198.57
-5.4
-0.88
rl2.79
r-1.92
-5.87
r-2.34
r0.99
18.9
10.3
-1.6
0.13
1,39
1.92
504.80
505.66
505.52
257.22
257.55
257.05
82.04
82.12
81.93
1.66
1.60
1.56
198.70
200.09
202.02
rl3.87
r5.79
E>pl2.63
(NA)
2.23
.40
(NA)
r505.83
E>p512.07
(NA)
r256.93
p259.10
(NA)
82.49
82.60
(NA)
rl.58
pi. 59
(NA)
204.25
(g>p207.64
(NA)
1.63
1.64
1.64
222.56
222.88
222.50
1982
January
February
March
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
Augusit
September . . .
H>p4.8
Octoter
Novembe* . . .
December . . .
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27.
l
This scries is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
OCTOBER 1983
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
Stock
Prices
Sensitive Commodity Prices
L, L, L
98. Change in
producer prices
for 28 sensitive
materials
(Percent)
L, L, L
U.L.L
23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrials l
(1967 = 100)
L, L, L
99. Change in sensitive materials
prices
Monthly
data
(Percent)
Smoothed
data 2
(Percent)
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks ®
(1941-43 = 10)
(fits and Profit Margins
L, t, L
L. L,L
Corporate profits after taxes
16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
18. Constant
(1972) dollar
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L.C.L
UC, L
Corporate profits after taxes
with IVA and CCAdj 3
79. Current
dollars
80. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
. L, Lt L
22. Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) to total
corporate
domestic
income
(Percent)
1981
January
February
March
-1.81
-2.50
0.64
291.6
284.2
289.8
-1.60
-2.08
0.92
0.16
-0.80
-1.15
132.97
128.40
133.19
152.2
79.
103.1
53.8
9.0
0.94
0.10
0.30
293.0
288.9
282.9
0.83
-0.37
-0.45
-0.52
0.17
0.23
134.43
131.73
132.28
138. 6
70.
104.6
53.5
8.1
July
August
September . . .
286,
289,
283.0
-0.25
-0.41
-1.91
-0.18
-0.36
-0.61
129.13
129.63
118.27
14416
72.C
113.8
57.2
8.1
October
November . . .
December . , .
-1.14
-1.88
-1.05
-1.00
-1.40
-1.50
119.80
122.92
123.79
14L7
69.4
116.5
57.4
7.7
-0.72
277,
270,
264.2
January
February
March
0.87
-1.40
-0.22
263.4
261.0
254.5
0.35
-0.97
-0.89
-1.11
-0.71
-0.53
117.28
114.50
110.84
1129
55.
101,7
49.9
6.2
April
May
June
-0.76
0.11
0.29
247.4
245.5
232.2
-1.21
-0.18
-1.45
-0.76
-0.89
-0.85
116,31
116.35
109.70
1174
56. t
105.3
51.1
6.4
July
August
September . . .
-0.33
-2.46
-0.26
237.0
236.2
239.0
0.41
-1.38
0.19
-0.68
-0.61
-0.53
109.38
109.65
122.43
1165
56.E
107.6
51.9
6.4
October
November . . .
December , . .
-0.23
-0.57
0.34
235.5
230.4
227.4
-0.51
-0.93
-0.24
-0.41
-0.49
-0.49
132.66
138.10
139.37
54.;
107.9
51.6
6.0
2.80
2.08
E>2.87
2.07
-0.13
0.94
1.96
144.27
146.80
151.88
108. 2
51.
120.3
57.5
5.8
2.25
232.1
241.3
248.8
April
May
June
-0.42
r2.10
r2.85
253.2
251.5
250.5
0.31
>0.92
rl.35
B>2.04
rl.42
r0.98
157.71
164.10
166.39
E>127.*2
S>60.
[H>142.2
|H>67.9
5.7
July
August
September . . .
-0.13
1.20
-1.06
256.0
265.2
(H>267.9
0.56
rl.67
-0.25
0.90
1.07
0.93
166.96
162.42
ED 167.16
(NA)
(NA
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
April
May
June
1982
1983
January
February
March
E>3.28
October
November . . .
December . . .
"271.7
M68.03
See note on page 60,
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
beginning with June 1981, this series is based on copyrighted data used by permission; it may not! be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 2See footnote 1 on page 68. 3IVAf inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption
adjustment.
''Average for October 1 through 18. 3Average for October 5, 12, and 19.
'
OCTOBER 1983
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PflOCISS
Q
Minor l-conomic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
Cash Flows
Profits and Profit Margins—Continued
U, L r L
L.L.L
8 1 Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp. domestic
income'
15. Profits (after
taxes) per dollar
of sales, all
manufacturing
corporations
(Percent)
(Cents)
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued
L, L, L
L.L.L
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share
Lr L, L
26. Ratio, price
Net cash flow, corporate
to unit labor
cost, nonfarm
business sector 34. Current
35. Constant
dollars
(1972) dollars
(1977 = 100)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
63. Index of
unit labor cost,
private business
sector
68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial
corporations
(1977-100)
(Dollars)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
62. Index of labor cost per
unit of output, manufacturing
Actual data
(1967-100)
Actual data
as a percent
of trend
64. Compensation of employees as a percent
of national
income
(Percent)
(Percent)
1981
January . . .
February . ,
March
5.5
4.9
97.8
271.7
138.0
139.0
1.272
202.4
201.8
203.4
100.8
99.8
99.9
74.9
April .
May .
June.
5.7
5.0
97.7
263.1
130*2
140.7
1.290
205.2
206.2
207.9
100.1
99.9
100.0
74.9
July
August , .,
September ,
6.1
4.8
98.8
273.1
132 .'8
142.3
1.306
207.8
208.7
211.1
99.3
99.0
99.5
73.9
October
November .. ,
December . . .
6.0
4.4
98.1
277.5
132.2
146.4
1.342
215.2
218.1
220.7
100.7
101.4
101.9
74.5
January . ,
February ,
March . . .
5.5
3.9
96.8
255.1
121! i
149.9
1.374
226.9
224.2
224.5
104.1
102.2
101.7
75.8
April .
May .
June ,
5.6
3.6
96.5
266.3
124^9
152.9
1.394
226.9
229.1
229.6
102.1
102.4
102.0
75.9
July
August
September . . .
5.8
3.5
95.9
272 ,#4
126.9
154.7
1.403
228.6
227.7
228.2
100.9
99.9
99.4
76.4
October..
November
December
5.6
2.8
95.8
275.5
127*9
155.6
1.419
229.3
230.4
230.7
99.3
99.1
98.6
76.4
6.5
3.3
96,3
278.9
130'. 3
Dl56.*9
©1.428
H>231.8
231.1
229.6
98,5
97.5
96.3
76.1
r97.6
H>3l6.*6
0)145.9
rl56.2
1.416
228.4
227.6
r226.3
95.2
94.2
r93.1
75.3
(NA)
(NA)
pl56.5
(NA)
r224.3
r223.3
P221.7
91.7
r90.7
P89.5
(NA)
1982
1983
January , ,
February ,
March.. ,
April
May
June
July
August
September ., .
(NA)
(NA)
October..
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pates 15, 29, and 30.
l
IVA> inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
70
OCTOBER 1983
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q |
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class . . .
Year
and
month
MONEY AND CREDIT
Money
L, l , L
85. Change in
money supply
(Ml)
' L, C, U
102. Change
in money
supply (M2)
L, I
104. Change in total liquid assets
Monthly
data
(Percent)
(Percent)
Smoothed
data 1
(Percent)
Credit Flows
Velocity of Money
(Percent)
L, L, L
L, I, L
105. Money
supply (Ml)
in 1972
dollars
106. Money
supply (M2)
in 1972
dollars
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
CCC
107. totio,
gross national
money supply
(Ml)f
C Lg, C
L t L,L
108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
(M2)
33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
JRatio)
(Ratio)
1981
January
February
March
0.63
0.77
1.10
0.49
0.85
1.20
1.07
1.05
0.66
0.96
0.95
199.9
199.9
200.5
785.9
786.5
789.7
6.819
1.414
1.414
1.412
55.82
60.60
46.93
April
May
June
1.22
0.00
0.05
0.87
0.43
0.71
0.46
1.00
1.19
0.82
0.72
0.80
202.1
200.4
198.9
793.2
789.8
789.3
6.776
1.408
1.411
1.417
54.62
42.05
47.48
July
August
September
0.49
0.44
-0.09
0.86
1.23
0.59
0.97
1.36
0.94
0.97
1.11
1.13
197.6
196.8
194.7
787.1
790.1
786.7
6.938
1.432
1.432
1.435
60.85
34.20
26.76
October
November
December . . . .
-0.05
0.60
1.08
0.69
0.95
0.80
0.93
1.02
0.64
1.08
1.02
0.91
193.9
194.2
195.5
789.3
793.1
796.4
6.945
1.425
1.415
1.403
22.79
21.66
5.14
January . .
February
March
1.63
0.04
0.13
0.85
0.31
0.72
0.85
0.90
0.92
0.85
0.82
0.84
198.1
198.1
198.4
800.9
802.8
808.9
6.743
1.391
1.393
1.387
22.08
16.39
3.53
April . . . . . .
May
... .
June
... .
0.16
0.69
0.22
0.34
0.84
0.75
0.65
1.00
1.08
0.86
0.84
0.88
198.2
197.6
195.9
809.7
808.2
805.6
6.797
1.389
1.388
1.380
8.75
3.22
-9.78
July
August
September
0.22
0.86
1.07
0 88
1.21
0.70
1 13
0.91
0.60
0 99
1.06
0.96
195.2
196.3
198.2
807.9
815.2
820.1
6.739
1.377
1.359
1.355
-5.95
-7.22
-10.42
October
November
December . . . .
1.19
1.13
0.89
0.66
0.79
0.75
0.90
0.57
0.50
0.84
0.75
0.67
199.7
201.9
204.3
822.1
828.6
837.1
6.566
1.357
1.354
1.350
-48.32
-9.05
-47.32
0.82
1.87
1.32
(H>2.58
2.03
0.93
1)1.17
1.01
0.93
0.70
0.82
H)0.96
205.6
209.9
212.4
857.2
876.4
883.4
6.468
1.320
1.292
1.290
20.60
34.81
-48.94
-0,22
H>2.20
0.85
0.24
1.03
r0.87
rO.62
r0.87
pO.92
rO.94
r0.83
p0.80
210 7
214 1
215.5
880 4
884 7
890.5
6.477
1.296
1.297
1.292
r5.20
r-36.43
r29.38
July
August
September
0.74
0.23
pO.10
rO.56
r0.50
pO.39
(NA)
(NA)
0)216.2
215.8
p215.0
D892.5
P891.9
0>p6.5i2
rl.292
rl.290
pi.296
DP71.86
(NA)
October
November
December
2
0.89
1982
1983
January
February . . . .
March
April
May
June
r891.9
r69.42
0.27
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.
l
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month[ of the span.
2
Average for weeks ended October 5 and 12.
KCII
OCTOBER 1983
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Continued
MMOf ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q H
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Credit Difficulties
Credit Flows-Continued
Timing Class
L.L.L
L,L,L
112. Net change 113. Net
in business
change in
loans
consumer installment
credit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L, L, L
111. Change
in credit outstandingbusiness and
consumer
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
percent)
MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued
L.L.L
110. Total
private
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
L.L.L
14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures ®
(Mil. dol.)
Bank Reserves
L.L.L
L, U, U
39. Delinquency 93. Free
rate, 30 days
reserves ®
and over, consumer installment loans
(Percent)
Interest Rates
L.Lg.U
94. Member
bank borrowing from the
Federal
Reserve ®
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
L, Lg, U
119. Federal
funds rate ®
(Percent)
C, Lg, Lg
114. Treasury
bill rate ®
(Percent)
1981
17.57
4.36
-20.64
19.54
35.65
23.12
7.9
7.9
3.2
307,840
341.36
789.20
485.34
2.42
2.51
2.53
-1,028
-1,023
-719
1,386
1,301
994
19.08
15.93
14.70
14.72
14.90
13.48
46.46
67.79
51.17
25.55
24.02
12.78
10.0
11.2
8.4
368,380
536.88
428.20
408.54
,40
40
30
-1,136
-1,968
-1,700
1,338
2,220
2,039
15.72
18.52
19.10
13.63
16.30
14.56
52.51
57.31
59.23
19.28
21.67
33.73
9.9
8.3
9.1
303,776
619.46
450.41
752.34
22
.35
28
-1,335
-1,122
-1,035
1,679
1,417
1,451
19.04
17.82
15.87
14.70
15.61
14.95
25.18
42.12
32.60^
9.41
-4.36
-2.76
3.0
3.6
3.1
242,420
897,94
618.76
626.74
2.37
2.42
2.37
-871
-348
-330
1,149
695
642
15.08
13.31
12.37
13.87
11.27
10.93
65.16
62.47
23.77
21.42
8.66
2.62
8.4
7.9
2.8
245,804
645.14
913.46
836.01
2.48
2.39
2.24
-1,101
-1,414
-1,254
1,526
1,713
1,611
13.22
14.78
14.68
12.41
13.78
12.49
64.22
45.05
31.64
19.62
18.10
20.90
6.6
4.7
3.2
293,064
1,309.33
2,850.45
1,020.25
,20
,21
,16
-1,307
-745
-895
1,581
1,105
1,205
14.94
14.45
14.15
12.82
12.15
12.11
7.98
4.73
22.00
4.70
0.80
10.04
-1.9
1.4
1.2
247,372
1,425.60
(NA)
19
21
,19
-378
-199
-592
669
510
976
12.59
10.12
10.31
11.91
9.01
8.20
2.71
-63.76
-64.46
4.96
15.65
29.03
-4.1
-5.6
-8.1
265,728
24
23
2.18
-51
-177
-197
455
579
697
9.71
9.20
8.95
7.75
8.04
8.01
1H> 32.20
-5.70
11.00
32.70
8.82
30.98
5.7
1.4
-1.2
277,772
2.24
2.23
2.22
46
-122
-415
500
557
852
8.68
8.51
8.77
7.81
8.13
8.30
-32.62
-49.01
5.65
27.25
32.35
52.87
r-0.1
r-4.5
r5.7
H>p383,004
2.07
2.00
E>1.92
-517
-453
3>-l,234
993
902
E>1,714
8.80
8.63
8.98
8.25
8.19
8.82
r4.58
r8.95
p-5.29
|fl>58.08
40.66
(NA)
i>9.7
8.5
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-875
r-1,127
p-989
1,382
rl,573
pi,446
9.37
E>9.56
9.45
9.12
E>9.39
9.05
x
-532
x
l,089
"9.65
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 32, 33, and 34.
^Average f o r weeks ended October 5, 12, and 19.
a
Average f o r weeks ended October 6, 1 3 , and 2 0 .
72
OCTOBER 1983
2
8.73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
i
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
J
MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued
Outstanding Debt
Interest Rates-Continued
Lg, Lg. Lg .
C Lg, Lg
U, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
116. Corporate 115. Treasury 117. Municipal 118. Secondary 67. Bank rates
bond yields @ bond yields <§) bond yields <u) market yields
on short-term
on FHA
business loans
mortgages <§)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks ®
66. Consumer
installment
credit
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
101. Constant
(1972) dollars
95. Ratio,
consumer in*
stallment credit
to personal
income
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
72. Current
dollars
(Mil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
1981
January . . .
February . . .
March
14.01
14.60
14.49
11.65
12.23
12.15
9.68
10.10
10.16
14.23
14.79
15.04
19.91
20.16
19.43
18.05
309.765
312,736
314,663.
211,841
212,204
210,484
88,599
87,869
86,370
13.37
13.38
13.33
April
May
June
15.00
15.68
14.97
12.62
12.96
12.39
10.62
10.78
10.67
15.91
16.33
16.31
19.99
17.15
19.61
20.03
316,792
318,794
319,859
214,356
220,005
224,269
87,030
89,107
90,614
13.34
13.34
13.23
July
August
September
15.67
16.34
16.97
13.05
13.61
14.14
11.14
12.26
12.92
16.76
17.96
18.55
20.39
20.50
20.08
321,466
323,272
326,08-
228,645
233,421
238,357
91,936
93,781
95,996
13.05
12.96
12.97
October
November
December ..
16.96
15.53
15.55
14.13
12.68
12.88
12.83
11.89
12.91
17.43
15.98
16.43
18.45
16.84
15.75
326,86:
326,50'
326,27'
240,455
243,965
246,682
96,724
98,333
99,308
13.00
12.96
12.96
January
February
March
16.34
16.35
15.72
13.73
13.63
12,98
13.28
12.97
12.82
17.38
17.10
16.41
17.13
15.75
16.56
16.50
328,05!)
328,78L
328,99)
252,112
257,318
259,299
100,644
102,640
103,637
13.03
12.99
12.97
April
May
June
15.62
15.37
15.96
12.84
12.67
13.32
12.59
11.95
12.45
16.31
16.19
16.73
17.il
16.50
16.50
16.50
330,63\
332,14>
333,88 *
264,651
268,405
271,042
105,776
107,062
107,856
12.97
12.93
12.98
July
August
September . .
15.75
14.64
13.78
12.97
12.15
11.48
12.28
11.23
10.66
16.29
14.61
14.03
13.27
16.26
14.39
13.50
334,275
334,343
335,180
271,707
272,101
273,934
107,735
107,934
109,007
12.91
12.93
12.90
October
November
December
12.63
11.89
12.15
10.51
10.18
10.33
9.69
10.06
9.96
12.99
12.82
12.80
11.26
12.52
11.85
11.50
335,593
336,897
339,31(6
274,160
268,847
263,475
108,923
106,643
104,347
12.82
12.79
12.83
January
February
March
12.04
12.11
11.81
10.37
10.60
10.34
9.50
9.58
9.20
12.87
12.65
12.68
10'.20
11.16
10.98
10.50
342,041
342,75 6
345,398
266,158
265,683
266,600
105,702
105,179
105,626
12.89
12.93
12.93
April
11.58
11 24
11 90
10.19
10,21
10.64
9.05
9.11
9.52
12.50
12.41
12.96
10.31
10.50
10.50
10.50
347,629
350,3<5
354,7'1
263,882
259,798
260,269
104,549
rlO2,646
102,468
12.93
12.88
12.98
July
August
September
12.46
E> 12.89
12.68
11.10
H>11.42
11.26
9.53
H>9.72
9.58
©14.23
13.78
13.55
Dili 09
10.50
10.89
11.00
359, sn
E>362,9)9
(Nf
r260.651
r261,397
p260,956
rlO2,377
rl02,108
plOl.817
rl3.09
E>pl3.17
(NA)
October
November
December
M2.48
1982
1983
June
. .
2
9.60
.311.00
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
Average f o r weeks ended October 7, 14, and 2 1 .
a
Average f o r weeks ended October 6, 1 3 , and 2 0 .
3
Average f o r October 1 through 2 4 .
BUI
OCTOBER 1983
73
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
H | |
950. Twelve leading
indicator components
(series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19,
20, 29, 32, 36r 99,106,
Year
and
month
DIFFUSION INDEXES
952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62,77, 91,
95,101,109)
951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41, 47, 51, 57)
961. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing (20
industries)
HI)
1-month
span
6-month
span
8.3
33.3
58.3
75.0
54.2
58.3
100.0
87.5
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
41.7
25.0
45.8
58.3
33.3
50.0
50.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
July
Augujit
September
33.3
41.7
8.3
8.3
16.7
8.3
Octoter
Novembe'
December
25.0
50.0
29.2
1-month
span
6-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
962. Initial claims for
State unemployment
insurance, week including the 12th*
(51 areas)
963. Number of employees on private
nonagricultural payrolls
(186 industries)
1-month
span
9-month
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
1981
25.0
41.7
16.7
66.7
33.3
75.0
15.0
47.5
95.0
77.5
60.0
86.3
39.2
31.4
76.5
81.4
70.6
57.8
52.4
52.2
68.5
65.3
63.7
50.0
83.3
66.7
41.7
66.7
50.0
66.7
60.0
77.5
22.5
42.5
15.0
10.0
64.7
78.4
17.6
19.6
19.6
5.9
65.6
60.2
58.9
69.4
64.2
58.6
75.0
25.0
37.5
50.0
25.0
12.5
66.7
50.0
83.3
83 3
66.7
66.7
32.5
57.5
15.0
15.0
20.0
5.0
68.6
58.8
9.8
17.6
9.8
27.5
62.6
49,5
42.2
45.7
8.3
8.3
25.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
75.0
66.7
75.0
66.7
66.7
50.0
65.0
17.5
32.5
7.5
0.0
5.0
60.8
49.0
22.5
11.8
5.9
7.8
33.3
29.3
30.9
24.2
25.0
22,0
45.8
58.3,
33.3
41.7
41.7
45.8
0.0
87.5
37.5
0.0
50.0
50,0
75.0
33.3
33.3
41.7
33.3
33.3
5.0
95.0
12.5
5.0
32.5
22.5
96.1
24.5
5.9
11.8
31.4
43.1
28.5
45.4
36.0
20,2
23.7
25.3
April
May ,
June
66.7
37.5
37.5
66.7
50.0
45.8
25.0
75,0
25.0
0.0
0.0
58.3
41.7
58.3
33.3
33.3
33.3
47.5
65.0
80.0
22.5
25.0
85.0
62.7
68.6
19.6
15.7
23.5
9.8
39.0
47.6
32.8
29.8
26.1
26.1
July
August
September
58.3
58.3
62.5
50.0
41.7
62.5
25.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
33.3
50.0
33.3
33.3
16.7
16.7
45.0
37.5
42.5
32.5
60.0
80.0
67.6
17.6
17.6
72.5
82.4
38.4
37.1
34.1
23.4
19.1
21.2
Octobw
November
December
r75.0
58.3
66.7
83.3
87.5
83.3
0.0
16.7
50.0
75.0
50.0
50.0
75.0
0.0
0.0
8.3
16.7
16.7
57.5
65.0
62.5
62.5
82.5
100.0
88.2
60.8
76.5
71 6
66.7
84.3
29 3
32.0
42,2
26 1
26.6
35.8
January
February
March . .
75.0
66.7
66.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
25.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
33.3
50.0
25.0
16.7
16.7
16.7
85.0
7.5
97.5
90.0
90.0
80.0
68.6
57.8
35.3
98.0
96.1
56.5
45.7
62.4
50.5
63.2
73.4
April
May
June
83.3
70.8
87.5
100.0
91.7
2
90.0
87.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
33.3
8.3
25.0
16.7
16.7
"25.0
92.5
32.5
87.5
r87.5
P90.0
80.4
48.0
78.4
69.1
71.0
64.5
r76.3
r79.3
p80.9
Janutiry .
February
March
April
May
June
8.3
34.4
29.6
1.982
January
February
Marcr
. .
.......
0.0
0.0
12.5
9.8
1)83
July
August
September
October
November
December .
2
70.8
58.3
50.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
3
3
58.3
66.7
"25.0
r57.5
52.5
p90.0
70.6
pll.8
(NA)
100.0
p84.3
(NA)
r68.5
r67.7
p58.9
...
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <§>, that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pate 36.
^Figures; are the percent of components declining.
3
Exclud€is series 36 and 111, for which data are not available.
3
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
"Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.
74
OCTOBER 1983
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Year
and
month
964. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (34 industries)
965. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
deflated (17 manufacturing industries)
1-month
span
9-month
span
1-quarter
span
January
February
March . . . . . .
41.2
50.0
50.0
82.4
79.4
64.7
56
April
May
June
64.7
52.9
52.9
55.
41,
32.4
53
July
August
September . . .
35.3
35.3
47.1
32.
26,
14,
33
October
November . . .
December . . .
36.8
50.0
35.3
29.4
20.6
14.7
30
January
February
March
38.2
47.1
45.6
23.5
26.5
33.8
53
April
May
June
47.1
61.8
35.3
26.5
23.5
41.2
24
July
August . . . . . .
September . . .
50.0
38.2
50.0
23.5
32.4
52.9
53
October
November .. .
December . . .
38.
70,
41.2
44.1
50.0
64.7
77
January
February
March
70.
52.
55.
91
85
85
42
April
May
June
76.5
64.
64.
4-Q moving
average
966. Index of industrial
production (24
industries)
1-month
span
6-month
span
967. Index of spot
market prices, raw
industrials ©
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
span
9-month
span
968,
Index of stock
prices 500 common
stock
1-m nth
9-month
span
960. Net profits,
manufacturing2 ®
(about 600 companies)
(4-quarter span)
1981
79.2
70.8
58.3
30.8
30.8
65.4
38.5
38.5
46.2
.0
2.5
79.2
67.3
59.6
60
49
83.3
62.5
45.8
54.2
58.3
45.8
69.2
26.9
38.5
46.2
46.2
53.8
1.1
0.2
59,6
44.2
42.3
59
43
56.2
62.5
45.8
31.3
20.8
16.7
61.
61,
42,
61.5
42.3
23.1
L9.2
;o.4
0.0
46.2
32.7
9.6
49
42
87.5
52.1
12.5
8.3
8.3
10.4
38.5
26.9
46.2
23.1
23.1
15.4
18.7
15.4
157.3
14.4
10.6
34.6
48
35
20.8
8.3
20.8
0.0
12.5
33.3
42.3
34.6
38.5
15.4
30.8
26.9
10.6
34.6
28.8
34.6
42.3
38.5
50
40
33.3
75.0
31.3
41.7
37.5
33.3
30,8
34.6
23.1
26.9
19,
19,
88.5
4.8
11.5
18.0
56.0
79.6
53
52
20.8
41.7
54.2
33.3
25.0
37.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
26.9
15,
23
•2.9
26.5
00.0
87.8
87.8
89.8
58
49
60.4
52.1
41.7
45.8
60 f 4
75.0
46.2
30.8
46.2
50.0
57.7
65.4
98.0
85.7
1.0
89.8
98.0
100.0
66
p58
25.0
33.3
41.7
75.0
58.3
75.0
79.2
87.5
91.7
61.5
76.9
57.7
80.8
61.5
57.7
63.
59,
73.
100.0
98.0
93.9
(NA)
(NA)
r91.7
95.8
p95.8
65.4
46.2
46.2
80.8
96.2
88.5
81.6
91.8
65.3
89.8
87.5
1982
1983
July
August
September . . .
r82.4
p85.3
47.1
r61.8
p52.9
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
p59
(NA)
83,
91.
r79.
57.7
73.1
57.7
r87.5
r81.3P95.8
3
3
52.0
30.6
85.4
50.0
,
1
Based on 53 industries through May 1981, on 52 industries through August 1982, on 50 industries in September 1982, on 49 industries
through August 1983, and on 48 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the
source.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet, Inc.
3
Based on average for October 4, 11, and 18.
OCTOBER 1983
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE-Contlnued
Q j
Year
and
quarter
(1-Q span)
1980
First quarter
Secand quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
b. Later
anticipations
c. Early
anticipations
(1-Q span)
(1-Q span)
Revised*
2
Revised
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
973. Net sales, manufacturing
and tradel ®
972. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade' ®
971. New orders, manufacturing1 ®
970. Business expenditures for new plant and
equipment (22 industries)
a. Actual
expenditures
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
72.7
50.0
47.7
59.1
59.1
40.9
34.1
36.4
77.3
54.5
90.9
72.7
74
63
60
60
66
75
57
62
62
54
57
56
66
73
59
61
73
62
68
66
72
80
63
67
70.5
65.9
81.8
40.9
59.1
36.4
56.8
68.2
59.1
59.1
84.1
77.3
68
70
62
62
74
74
76
76
60
66
60
60
70
69
74
72
70
74
71
68
78
76
80
80
50.0
29.5
22.7
25.0
50.0
22.7
31.8
54.5
50.0
54.5
68.2
72.7
52
50
52
56
60
68
64
60
53
52
52
54
61
66
66
60
63
58
57
60
65
70
72
65
36.4
36.4
(NA)
59.1
43.2
90.9
50.0
40.9
68.2
77.3
66
74
(NA)
66
77
82
85
62
66
(NA)
64
73
80
81
66
74
(NA)
68
78
84
86
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1982
Firs! quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
"hird quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
Q |
Year
and
quarter
974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade' ®
975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade' ®
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
976. Selling prices, manufacturing ' ®
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
977. Selling prices, wholesale
tradel ®
978. Selling prices, retail
tradel ®
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1980
F rst quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Tltird quarter
Fourti quarter . . . .
58
54
53
51
54
56
48
50
67
61
64
60
62
70
53
56
90
88
90
90
87
90
83
86
92
90
92
90
90
92
87
88
92
91
94
90
90
93
84
90
51
53
52
52
56
54
56
55
62
64
62
63
63
61
66
64
88
86
84
82
88
90
89
84
90
88
84
82
90
89
89
84
94
90
86
86
90
90
92
87
48
46
46
46
50
51
51
48
58
52
52
52
54
56
56
50
72
68
63
60
80
76
68
66
72
67
68
61
82
78
72
68
78
75
74
68
82
81
76
72
48
54
(NA)
50
56
59
60
54
59
(NA)
52
58
62
64
61
60
(NA)
65
66
70
69
63
62
(NA)
68
64
68
72
68
72
(NA)
69
67
70
71
1981
First <|uarter
Sticond quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
Fi -st quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those,
indicated :y<§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "pft, preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
l
T\\is is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun £ Bradstroet, Inc. Dun £
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.
2
Sae "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
76
OCTOBER 1983
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Da 3 and Directions of Change
Diffusion index components
1983
April
March
February
June
May
August
September'3
961. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(Average weekly hours)
39.2
39.5
40.1
40.0
40.1
(8)
(98)
(92)
(32)
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
39.5
37.9
39.5
38.3
40.0
39.3
Stone, clay, and glass products.
Primary metal industries
40.5
39.1
40.6
39.4
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
39.6
39.4
Electric and electronic equipment .
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products ,
Miscellaneous manufacturing
40.2
40.3
(88)
(58)
(52)
(90)
39.8
39.2
40.0
39.6
39.9
r39.7
40.1
39.5
40.3
39.8
41.0
39.9
41.2
40.3
41.6
40.3
41.7
40.8
41.7
41.0
42.0
41.1
39.7
39.7
40,
40.
40.4
40.0
40.5
40.4
+
+
40.7
r40.7
40.8
40.7
41.5
40.9
39.5
41.2
39.8
41.7
40.4
42.3
40.3
41.6
40.5
41.9
+
+
40.8
r42.0
40.7
41.9
41.0
43.4
39.7
37.7
40.0
39.0
40.5
39.0
40.4
38.8
40.1
38.9
+
r40.7
r38.8
40.2
39.1
40.4
39.4
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufacturers
39.0
34.1
39.2
36.3
39.6
37.3
39.4
37.4
39.4
r36.8
39.6
37.6
39.8
37.6
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
39.0
35.2
39,
35,
40.6
36.2
40.4
36.1
r40.7
35.8
41.0
36.2
41.
36.
Paper and allied products...
Printing and publishing
41.4
37.1
42.1
37.4
42.4
37.7
42.7
37.4
r42.9
37.7
42.8
37.5
43.1
37.7
Chemicals and allied products .
Petroleum and coal products ..
41.0
44.4
41.2
44.9
41.5
43.5
41.6
43.6
41.8
r43.7
41.6
43.4
41.6
43.0
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products .
Leather and leather products
39.7
34.9
40.6
36.0
41.1
37.0
41.1
36.8
41.2
36.f
40.9
r37.4
41.2
37.4
41.8
38.1
84,456
90,90!
3,234
89,978
89,498
(65)
(65
(47)
(62)
(53)
11,006
10,341
+
+
11,061
11,033
All manufacturing industries
Percent rising of 20 components .
+
+
40.7
Durable goods industries:
Nondurable goods industries:
964. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES '
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
77,449
Percent rising of 34 components .
+
(53)
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products...
+
Machinery, except electrical .
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries.
79,951
+
83,101
+
(76)
(56)
+
9,911
9,024
9,183
9,715
+
8,952
9,313
+
+
9,963
10,036
+
+
10,11
10,13:
+
+
10,407
9,885
+
12,252
12,398
+
+
14,330
12,526
+
+
14,806
13,181
+
+
14,956
13,849
+
-
15,46
13,43
+
14,844
14,713
+
-
15,391
13,987
+
-
16,653
13,956
-
17,708
16,156
+
+
17,953
16,244
+
+
19,973
16,876
+
18,377
17,275
+
+
23,44
18,31
-
20,495
17,890
+
-
21,660
17,593
+
18,527
18,268
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: { + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged] and ( —) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p",
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
*Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are incjluded in the totals and directions of
change for the six major industry groups shown here.
OCTOBER 1983
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued
1983
Diffusion index components
February
April
March
June
May
July r
August/
September^
966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION !
(1967 = 100)
146.4
149.6
151.4
153.7
(92)
(79)
(88)
(81)
(96)
135.8
169.6
137.4
173.1
141.3
174.9
144.5
175.6
(NA)
(NA)
138.3
83.1
139.2
84.9
141.7
84.8
145*8 +
85.5 +
149.7
87.4
(NA)
89.8
113.9
138.6
115.3
143.1
115.5
146.1
118.5
149,5
122.5
154.2
125.1
157.1
127.6
160.6
173.8
110.1
177.2
111.4
180.1
113.8
182.4
116.6
188.2
119.7
187.9
121.4
193.9
123.6
153.4
133.9
154.0
136.9
155.1
145.0
+
+
156.0 +
149.0 +
156.1 +
151.0 +
162.3
153.8
165.8
155.6
Foods
Tobacco products .
153.0
108.5
152.0
113.4
153.7
114.8
+
155.6 +
112.9 +
157.7
120.0
159.3
112.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Textile mill products
Apparel products....
130.7
(NA)
131.9
(NA)
136.6
(NA)
+
139.6
(NA)
141.8
(NA)
146.7
(NA)
149.3
(NA)
Paper and products . . . .
Printing and publishing .
155.6
144.0
156.3
145.9
163.0
147.4
165.0
151.0
167.3
154.3
168.9
156.2
Chemicals and products
Pet'oleum products . . . .
202.3
111.7
205.7
114.8
208.5 +
120.6 +
211.0
123.8
214.7
123.0
217.6
+
220.2
123.1
(NA)
127.2
Rubber and plastics products.
Lea iher and products
264.0
61.7
272.0
59.4
283.0
58.7
288.0
59.6
293.8
60.1
296.1
62.3
+
+
303.7
62.9
Metat mining .
Coa
75.1
136.5
75.2
127.3
79.8
125.3
84.4
125.6
82.9
124.6
82.5
139.9
82.2
141.2
140.2
Oil ind gas extraction
Stone and earth minerals .
117.0
115.7
114.4
114.0
112.2
117.7
112.5
122.5
112.6
121.7
114.1
118.9
115.2
121.6
116.7
(NA)
142.6
144.4
(75)
(83)
130.2
154.0
128.7
161.0
132.1
167.7
Clay, glass, and stone products.
Primary metals
131.8
77.9
135.6
81.2
fabricated metal products
Nonelectrical machinery...
110.3
136.2
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
168.9
109.6
Instruments
138.1
140.0
(58)
Lumber and products.,
Ftrntlure and fixtures .
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components '
+
+
Durable manufactures:
Mi ;cellaneous manufactures . . .
+
+
+
+
159.3 +
153.7 +
Nondurable manufactures:
+
157.0 +
145.7
161.5 +
145.2 +
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Mining:
NOTE: l o facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) - rising, (o) - unchanged, and ( - ) - falling.
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
(NA)
The "r" indicates revised; " p " ,
l
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Whero actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
a
78
OCTOBER 1983
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE-Continued
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and
Q
Diffusion index components
irections of Change—Continued
1983
February
April
March
May
Jul
June
August
September
,October 1
+
+
967. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES RAW INDUSTRIALS »
Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100) ....
+
241.3
4
(77)
Percent rising of 13 components
248.8
+
(58)
253.2
-
(65)
251.5
-
250.5
+
(46)
(46)
25 .0
+
265.2
(73)
( 8)
267.9
(58)
271.7
(50)
Dollars
0.608
1.340
0.623
1.373
-
0.591 +
1.303
0. 04
1. 32
-
0.592
1.305
-
0.568
1.252
-
0.515
1.135
+
0.128
0.282
0.124
0.273
-
0.118
0.260
-
0. 13
0. 49
+
0.115
0.254
+
0.122
0.269
+
0.150
0.331
85.000
93.696
-
80.500
88.735
69.600
76.720
+
75.500
83.224
+
80.(100
88. 84
+
87.400
96.341
+
88.750
97.829
-
88.667
97.738
+
6.180
13.624
+
6.300
13.889
6.208
13.686
-
6.158
13.576
-
6. in
13.' 70
5.950
13.117
-
5.932
13.078
+
5.947
13.111
0.404
0.891
-
0.384
0.847
+
0.387
0.853
+
0.404
0.891
+
0.405
0.893
+
0. 11
0. 06
+
0.440
0.970
+
0.464
1.023
o
0.464
1.023
+
0.237
0.259
+
0.256
0.280
+
0.260
0.284
-
0.244
0.267
+
0.252
0.276
-
0. 50
0. 73
+
0.258
0.282
+
0.266
0.291
+
0.286
0.313
(pound).,
(kilogram)..
+
0.633
1.396
0.681
1.501
-
0.677
1.493
+
0.692
1.526
+
0.726
1.601
-
0. 20
1 . 87
+
0.748
1.649
-
0.735
1.620
-
0.728
1.605
Print doth ...
(yard).,
(meter)..
-
0.608
0.665
-
0.594
0.650
-
0.578
0.632
+
0.584
0.639
-
0.576
0.630
+
0. 15
0. 73
0.638
0.698
+
0.686
0.750
+
0.728
0.796
Wool tops ...
(pound).,
(kilogram)..
o
3.300
7.275
-
3.240
7.143
-
3.200
7.055
0
3.200
7.055
o
3.200
7.055
o
3. 00
7. 55
+
3.340
7.363
+
3.550
7.826
o
3.550
7.826
Hides
(pound).,
(kilogram)..
+
0.479
1.056
0.504
1.111
+
0.560
1.235
0.605
1.334
+
0.618
1.362
+
0. 92
1. 26
-
0.674
1.486
-
0.632
1.393
-
0.630
1.389
Rosin
(100 pounds)..
(100 kilograms)..
0
47.000
103.616
47.000
103.616
0
47.000
103.616
0
47.000
103.616
o
47.000
103.616
o
47. 00
103. 16
0
47.000
103.616
o
47.000
103.616
o
47.000
103.616
Rubber
(pound).,
(kilogram)..
+
0.484
1.067
0.584
1.287
-
0.568
1.252
-
0.555
1.224
+
0. 81
1. 81
0.596
1.314
+
0.599
1.321
+
0.600
1.323
Tallow
(pound).,
(kilogram)..
+
0.148
0.326
0.169
0.373
-
0.164
0.362
-
0.150
0.331
o
0. 50
31
0,186
0.410
-
0.180
0.397
-
0.167
0.368
Copper scrap
(pound).,
(kilogram)..
+
0.591
1.303
-
0.587
1.294
Lead scrap
(pound)
(kilogram)..
-
0.125
0.276
_
0.123
0.271
(U.S. ton).,
(metric ton)..
+
72.750
80.192
+
Tin
......(pound)..
(kilogram)..
+
5.948
13.113
Zinc
(pound).,
(kilogram)..
+
Burlap
(yard).,
(meter)..
Cotton
Steel scrap ..
+
+
0
+
+
0.560
1.235
0.151
0.333
+
+
-
+
P.
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) - rising, (o) = unchanged, nd ( - ) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p",
preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Average for October 4, 11, and 18.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by th|e Bureau of Economic Analysis.
OCTOBER 1983
79
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Q |
and
quarter
b. Difference
a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil, dol.)
b. Difference
a. Total
c. Percent
change at
annual rate
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
213. Final sales
in 1972 dollars
217. Per capita
GNP in 1972
dollars
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars
200. Gross national product in current dollars
Year
GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME
c. Percent
change at
annual rate
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1980
First quarter
S'corcfquarter
. . . .
Third quarter
F o u r t i quarter
. . . .
2,572.9
2,578.8
2,639.1
2,736.0
73.0
5.9
60.3
96.9
11.7
0.9
9.7
15.5
1,496.4
1,461.4
1,464.2
1,477.9
5.6
-35.0
2.8
13.7
1.9
-9.0
0.8
3.8
6,600
6,427
6,421
6,464
1,496.9
1,463.6
1,474.4
1,482.5
2,866.6
2,912.5
3,004.9
3,032.2
130.6
45.9
92.4
27.3
20.5
6.6
13.3
3.7
1,510.1
1,512.5
1,525.8
1,506.9
32.2
2.4
13.3
-18.9
9.0
0.7
3.6
-4.9
6,592
6,588
6,629
6,529
1,507.0
1,503.6
1,509.7
1,500.9
3,021.4
3,070.2
3,090.7
3,109.6
-10.8
48.8
20.5
18.9
-1.4
6.6
2.7
2.5
1,485.8
1,489.3
1,485.7
1,480.7
-21.1
3.5
-3.6
-5.0
-5.5
1.0
-1.0
-1.3
6,424
6,425
6,393
6,355
1,495.9
1,492.7
1,487.0
1,503.4
3,171.5
3,272.0
P3.363.3
61.9
100.5
p91.3
8.2
13.3
pll.6
1,490.1
1,525.1
pi,554.4
9.4
35.0
p29.3
2.6
9.7
p7.9
6,382
6,518
p6,627
1,505.5
1,530.5
pi,549.6
1981
First quarter
Second quarter
. . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
. . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter
. . , .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
. . . .
11)83
First cjuarter
Sticond quarter
. . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
. . . .
Q [
^ H
GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME-Continued
Disposable personal income
Year
and
quarter
224. Current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
230. Total in current
dollars
231. Total in 1972
dollars
232. Durable goods
in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
233. Durable goods
if\
1972 dollars
227. Per capita in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1980
First quarter
Second quarter
. . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
. . . .
1,771.7
1,789.8
1,846.0
1,908.0
1,025.8
1,012.0
1,019.2
1,029.6
4,524
4,451
4,469
4,503
1,620.5
1,626.4
1,683.4
1,741.9
938.3
919.6
929.4
940.0
220.7
200.8
213.8
223.6
145.2
130.0
135.6
139.0
1,967.6
2,010.4
2,092.0
2,120.5
1,040.7
1,045.6
1,068.1
1,064.3
4,543
4,554
4,640
4,612
1,802.8
1,835.8
1,886.1
1,904.1
953.6
954.7
962.9
955.7
236.9
233.4
243.5
230.8
145.4
140.5
143.9
134.8
2,127.9
2,159.0
2,191.5
2,227.8
1,055.1
1,060.2
1,059.3
1,066.1
4,562
4,574
4,558
4,576
1,938.9
1,972.8
2,008.8
2,046.9
961.4
968.8
971.0
979.6
239.4
242.9
243.4
252.1
138.5
139.5
138.2
143.2
2,255.9
2,301.0
P2.361.5
1,073.8
rl,083.0
pi,100.8
4,599
4,629
p4,693
2,073.0
2,147.0
p2,186.5
986.7
1,010.6
pi,019.Z
258.5
277.7
p284.2
145.8
156.5
P158.6
1981
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
F o r t h quarter
. . . .
. . . .
1982
First quarter
Sei:onc quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
. . . .
. . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
. . . .
. . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 41.
OCTOBER 1983
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT-Continued
IS r
Year
__
and
quarter
J
Q
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES—Continued
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
238. Nondurable
goods in 1972
dollars
237. Services in
current dollars
239. Services in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
240. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
GROSS PRIVUTE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
241. Total in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
242. Fixed investment, total, in
current dollars
243. Fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1980
First Quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
651.4
658.2
671.9
693.7
358.5
354.2
353.5
356.2
748.3
767.5
797.6
824.6
434.5
435.4
440.3
444.7
422.0
394.3
379.5
411.7
224. 3
202. \
197. \
210. 3
423.6
391.3
404.9
426.8
224.8
204.5
207.5
214.7
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
716.3
730.6
741.1
747.7
359.8
362.7
363.6
363.8
849.6
871.8
901.5
925.6
448.3
451.5
455.5
457.1
455.5
472.1
495.8
476.2
222. 1
229.
236. 3
221. 1
444.7
457.1
462.2
461.8
219.7
220.7
220.2
215.7
First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
749.7
754.7
766.6
773.0
362.6
363.5
364.7
366.0
949.7
975.2
998.9
1,021.8
460.4
465.7
468.2
470.4
422.9
432.5
425.3
377.4
199.
201.
198.
178.
7
4
%
"
448.6
443.7
430.2
433.8
209.9
204.9
199.8
201.1
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . , .
777.1
799.6
p818,7
368.9
374.7
p379.5
1,037.4
1,069.7
pi,083.6
472.0
479.4
p481.1
404.1
450.1
p501.0
190. 3
210.
p230.
443.5
464.6
p489.2
205.4
215.6
p225.6
1982
• •
GROSS PRIVATE
K S l DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.
Vflor
Year
and
quarter
245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
H J
260. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
261. Total in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS Ah0 SERVICES
262. Federal
Government in
current dollars
263. Federal
Government in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
266. State and
local government
in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
267. State and
local government
in 1972 dollars
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
1980
First quarter . . . . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
-25.4
-15.1
-0.5
-2,1
-10.1
-4.7
517.6
535.5
539.1
559.0
284.0
286.8
284.0
282.5
188.1
199.0
194.5
206.6
105.
109.
106.
104.
329.6
336.5
344.6
352.4
178.1
177.5
177.8
10.9
15.0
33.6
14.3
3.0
8.9
16.1
6.0
576.3
583.5
600.3
622.8
285.6
284.1
286.8
289.6
215.7
220.4
232.4
248.5
107.
107.
111.
114.
360.5
363.2
367.9
374.3
178.3
176.2
175.0
175.1
-25.7
-11.2
-4.9
-56.4
-10.2
-3.4
-1.3
-22.7
629.8
631.6
655.7
679.7
289.4
285.8
292.2
299.7
249.7
244.1
261.7
279.2
114.
110.
116.
124.
380.0
387.5
394.0
400.5
174.9
175.4
175,3
175.2
-39.4
-14.5
pll.8
-15.4
-5.4
p4.8
677.4
683.4
P701.8
292.9
292.1
p296.1
273.5
273.7
p281.2
118.
U7-.
pll9.
404.0
409.7
p420.6
174.5
174.5
pl76.6
-1.6
3.0
178.3
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
• Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41, 42, and 43.
OCTOBER 1983
81
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT-Continued
Q
Year
and
quarter
255. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
280. Compensation of
employees
257. Constant
(1972) dollars
253. Current
dollars
256. Constant
(1972) dollars
252. Current
dollars
NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS
220. National income in current
dollars
Imports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services
Net exports of goods and services
250. Current
dollars
• 1
H I
FOREIGN TRADE
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1980
first quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
fourth quarter . . . .
12.8
22.5
37.1
23.3
49.8
52.6
53.4
45.4
335.3
336.8
337.6
345.4
164.4
161.0
156.4
154.7
322.5
314.2
300.5
322.0
114.5
108.4
102.9
109.3
2,076.2
2,072.5
2,117.7
2,200.1
1,555.6
1,574.8
1,604.5
1,663.6
31.9
21.1
22.8
29.2
48.3
44.1
39.8
39.9
367.3
369.2
367.5
371.0
160.6
160.7
159.0
158.7
335.4
348.1
344.7
341.7
112.4
116.6
119.1
118. £
2,295.8
2,337,2
2,423.4
2,435.6
1,718.8
1,750.9
1,791.7
1,815.6
29.9
33.3
0.9
5.6
35.2
33.4
24.0
23.0
358.4
364.5
346.0
321.6
151.8
154.5
146.4
136.5
328.5
331.2
345.0
316.1
116.6
121.1
122.4
113.5
2,419.7
2,448.9
2,458.9
2,474.0
1,834.2
1,859.9
1,879.5
1,889.0
17.0
-8.5
p-25.9
20.5
12.3
p8.7
326.9
327.1
P339.2
137.3
136.2
pl39.9
309.9
335.6
p365.1
116.8
123.9
pl31.1
2,528.5
2,612.8
(NA)
1,923.7
1,968.7
p2,011.3
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
fourth quarter
1983
first quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
fourth quarter . . . .
Q j
Year
and
quarter
282. Proprietors'
income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Q
NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Continued
284. Rental income
of persons with
capital consumption adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
286. Corporate
profits with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
288. Net interest
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
290. Gross saving
(private and government)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
SAVING
295. Business
saving
292. Personal
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1980
first quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Thirc 1 quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
123.1
111.7
116.7
118.3
29.0
30.1
32.5
34.4
187.3
168.3
170.6
175.6
181.2
187.6
193.5
208.2
408.3
400.3
398.7
416.1
314.0
324.1
328.0
334.7
100.8
113.2
112.2
114.6
121.1
118.9
123.5
117.1
37.4
39.9
42.7
45.6
194.7
185.0
197.6
192.0
223.7
242.6
268.0
265.3
461.8
475.8
507.6
490.1
356.6
365.1
381.9
393.8
112.2
120.2
149.7
159.0
111.2
104.9
103.6
116.2
47,4
49,0
50.9
52.3
162.0
166.8
168.5
161.9
265.0
268.3
256.4
254.7
434.4
439.5
397.9
351.3
383.3
393.6
401.9
405.8
130.8
127.1
123.0
120.8
120.6
127.2
pl27.4
54.1
54.8
p53.9
181.8
218.2
(NA)
248.3
243.8
p246.1
398.5
420.6
(NA)
419.7
443.4
(NA)
121.7
91,5
1981
first quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
fourth quarter . . . .
1982
first quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Ihirc quarter
f o u r h quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
Sae note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.
82
OCTOBER 1983
pllO.9
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Q j SAVING-Continued
Year
and
quarter
298. Government
surplus or deficit,
total
(Ann. rate,
biL dol.)
Q |
293. Personal
saving rate
(percent of disposable personal
income)
(Percent)
SHARES OF GNP AND IMATIC NAL INCOME
Percent of gross national p) )duct
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total
248. Nonresidential
fixed investment
(Percent)
(Percent)
247. Change in
business inventories
249. Residential
fixed investment
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
251. Net exports of
goods and services
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
-7.5
-38.1
-43.3
-33.9
5.7
6.3
6.1
6.0
63.0
63.1
63.8
63.7
12.1
11.6
11.7
11.6
4.4
3.6
3.7
4.0
-0.1
-0.6
1.4
0.9
-8.1
-10.6
-25.2
-63.7
5.7
6.0
7.2
7.5
62.9
63.0
62.8
62.8
11.6
11.9
12.0
12.1
3.9
3.8
3.4
3.1
0.4
0.5
1.1
0.5
1.1
0.7
0.8
1.0
-79.7
-81.2
-127.0
-175.3
6.1
5.9
5.6
5.4
64.2
64.3
65.0
65.8
12.0
11.5
11.1
10.8
2.9
3.0
2.8
3.1
-0.9
-0.4
-0.2
-1.8
1.0
1.1
0.0
0.2
-142.9
-114.4
(NA)
5.4
4.0
65.4
65.6
p65.0
10.5
10.3
3.5
3.9
p4,7
pl0.4
p4.2
-1.2
-0.4
p0.4
0.5
-0.3
p-0.8
0.5
0.9
0.1
-1.0
1981
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
Q j
Year
and
quarter
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME—Continued
Percent of national in cor e
Percent of GNP—Continued
265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services
(Percent)
268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services
64. Compensation of
employees
(Percent)
(Percent)
283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAdj'
285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj l
289. Net interest
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
287. Corporate
profits with IVA
and CCAdj'
1980
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
74.9
76.0
75.8
75.6
5.4
1.4
1.5
7.4
7.6
12.8
13.0
13.1
12.9
5.5
5.4
7.5
7.6
7.7
8.2
12.6
12.5
12.2
12.3
74.9
74.9
73.9
74.5
8.3
8.0
8.5
9.0
12.6
12.6
12.7
12.9
8.6
8.4
12.7
12.5
pl2.5
7.3
7.7
5.9
8.7
1.5
1.6
9.0
8.1
8.1
8.0
5.3
5.1
5.1
4.8
1.6
1.7
1.8
1,9
8.5
7.9
8.2
7.9
9.7
10.4
11.1
10.9
75.8
75.9
76.4
76.4
4.6
4.3
4.2
4.7
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.1
6.7
6.8
6.9
6.5
11.0
11.0
10.4
10.3
76.1
75.3
(NA)
4.8
4.9
2.1
2.1
(NA)
(NA)
7.2
8.4
(NA)
9.8
9.3
(NA)
9.1
9.1
9.5
1981
First quarter . . .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1982
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1983
First quarter .
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
P8.4
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
X
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
IICII
OCTOBER 1983
83
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
PRICE MOVEMENTS
Implicit price deflator,
gross national product
Year
and
month
310. Index
(1972=100)
310c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans >
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Fixed-weighted price index,
gross business product
311. Index
(1972 = 100)
311c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Consumer prices, food
Consumer prices, all items
320. Index
®
(1967=100)
322c. Change
over 1-month
spansl
322c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
320c. Change
over 1-month
spans'
320c. Change
over 6-month
spansl
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967-100)
9.9
9.6
9.1
268.9
270.3
272.0
0.4
0.5
0.6
6.9
4.7
3.8
322. Index
1981
January
February
March
189.8
April
May
June
192.6
July
Auijust
September . . ,
196.9
October
November
December
201.2
10.6
197.0
10.6
260.5
263.2
265.1
0.7
0.8
0.8
8.1
266.8
269.0
271.3
0.4
0.9
0.8
10.
10.
10,
272.3
272.4
272.9
0.1
0.0
0.2
4.8
4.9
4.5
9.2
274.4
276.5
279.3
1.1
0.8
1.0
10.5
9.6
8.8
275.3
276.9
278.0
0.9
0,6
0.4
4.8
4.8
4.8
7.2
279.9
280.7
281.5
0.4
0.5
0.4
6.9
5.3
3.1
278.7
278.9
279.4
0.3
0.1
0.2
4.4
4.2
3.5
4.9
282.5
283.4
283.1
0.3
0.1
0.0
2.9
4.0
5.5
281.3
282.6
282.8
0,7
0.5
0.1
3.3
4.7
5.6
4.5
284.3
287.1
290.6
0.2
1.0
1.1
6.1
6.6
6.9
283.3
285.4
287.1
0.2
0.7
0.6
4.5
3.1
3.4
5.8
292.2
292.8
293.3
0.6
0.3
0.1
7.2
5.1
2.3
287.6
286.9
287.5
0.2
»0.2
0.2
3.4
2.0
0.7
3.8
294.1
293.6
292.4
0.4
0.0
-0.3
1.4
0.4
0.5
288,
288,
288.1
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.8
0.8
1.9
2.9
288.3
288.3
290.1
0.1
0.0
0.6
2.2
2.8
2.2
3.4
4.7
5.4
291.3
292.2
291.3
0.4
0.3
-0.3
1.9
2.3
1.7
291.0
291.6
292.5
-0.1
0.2
0.3
5.9
200.9
9.4
205.3
9.0
...
...
208.9
1982
4.3
January
February
March
203.4
April
May
June
206.2
Julif
August
September . . .
208.0
October
November
December
210.0
218.8
January
February
March
212.8
220.8
April
May
June
214.6
223,0
211.4
5.6
...
...
213.8
3.7
216.8
3.8
1983
July
August
September . , .
October
November
December
p3.4
p216.4
p225.3
P
3.6
293.1
293.2
293.4
4.1
295.5
297.1
298.1
0.6
0.5
0.2
4.1
299.3
300.3
301.8
0.4
0.4
0.5
..,
...
See ncte on page 80.
Griphs of then stries art shown on pages 48 and 49.
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
84
OCTOBER 1983
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Contlnued
PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued
Producer prices, industrial commodities
Producer prices, all commodities
Year
and
month
330. Index ©
(1967=100)
330c. Change
over 6-month
spans' ®
330c. Change
over 1-month
spans' ©
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Percent)
335. Index ©
(1967 = 100)
335c. Change
over 1-month
spans4 ®
(Percent)
Producer prices, crude materials
335c. Change
over 6-month
spans' ©
(Ann. rate,
percent)
331. Index
(1967=100)
331c. Change
over 1-month
spans l
(Percent)
331c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1981
284.8
287.6
290.3
1.4
1.0
0.9
11.5
11.0
10.2
291.5
295.7
299.6
1.7
1.4
1.3
15.8
15.6
13.3
330.0
332.6
330.6
0.9
0.8
-0.6
5.0
1.9
5.1
,
293.4
294.1
294.8
1.1
0.2
0.2
8.2
6.2
3.8
303.5
304.7
305.1
1.3
0.4
0.1
10.3
7.9
5.3
333.6
332.4
335.5
0.9
-0.4
0.9
3,7
0.2
-1.9
July
August
September . . .
296.2
296.4
295.7
0.5
0.1
-0.2
1.8
1.0
0.7
306.2
307.2
307.4
0.4
0.3
0.1
3.7
3.0
3.2
336.1
333.0
327.4
0.2
-0.9
-1.7
-6.5
-8.4
-U.8
October
November . .
December . .
296.1
295.5
295.8
0.1
-0.2
0.1
1.4
1.5
1.6
309.0
309.3
310.0
0.5
0.1
0.2
3.7
2.9
2.4
322.5
318.1
315.1
-1.5
-1.4
-0.9
-9.2
-8.9
-6.3
January
February
March
298.3
298.6
298.0
0.8
0.1
-0.2
1.3
2.1
2.4
311.8
311.6
311.0
0.6
-0.1
-0.2
0.6
0.2
0.4
320.2
317.9
317.0
1.6
-0.7
-0.3
-1.1
5.3
6.9
April
May
June
298.0
298.6
299.3
0.0
0.2
0.2
1.4
1.1
0.9
309.9
309.6
310.6
-0.4
-0.1
0.3
0.6
1.0
1.1
320.8
326.4
325.8
1.2
1.7
-0.2
1.2
0.8
-1.0
July
August
September . . .
300.4
300.2
299.3
0.4
-0.1
-0.3
1.2
1.1
0.9
312.8
313.2
312.7
0.7
0.1
-0.2
2.9
3.5
3.0
322.1
319.1
315.4
-1.1
-0.9
-1.2
-4.0
-5.5
-5.6
October . . . ' . .
November . . .
December . . .
299.8
300.3
300.7
0.2
0.2
0.1
-0.3
0.5
0.9
314.3
315.0
315.2
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.7
0.4
0.5
314.3
317.3
316.6
-0.3
1.0
-0.2
-3.0
-1.4
2.2
299.9
300.9
300.6
-0.3
0.3
-0.1
0.5
r0.8
1.2
313.9
313.9
313.5
-1.2
r-0.9
0.1
315.8
316.8
318.9
-0.3
0.3
0.7
6.2
r4.3
4.4
300.6
r301
302
0.0
rO.3
0.3
2.2
2.7
3.2
312.4
r313.6
315.4
1.7
2.3
2.4
2.5
6.2
5.8
0.2
0.6
0.1
323.9
r324.1
323.5
319.7
326.5
328.0
1.6
rO.l
r-0.2
303.
304
305.3
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
-0.4
0.4
r0.6
0.4
0.3
-0.1
January
February
March
April
May
June
1982
1983
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September . . .
316.6
317.5
317.2
-1.2
2.1
0.5
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs off these series are shown on page 48.
Changes are centered within the spans:
r
OCTOBER 1983
1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
85
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued
PRICE MOVEMENTS-Continued
Year
and
month
332. Index
(1967-100)
332c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
332c. Change
over 1-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Percent)
Producer.prices, finished consumer goods
Producer prices, capital equipment
Producer prices, intermediate materials
333. Index
(1967 = 100)
333c. Change
over 1-month
spans'
(Percent)
333c. Change
over 6-month
spans l
(Ann. rate,
percent)
334. Index
(1967-100)
334c. Change
over 1-month
spans'
(Percent)
334c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann, rate,
percent)
1981
Jiinuary
Fsbruary
March
297,0
298.3
301.1
1.2
0.4
0.9
11.4
10.6
9.4
253.5
256.1
258.1
1.1
1.0
0.8
10.1
10.5
11.0
262.2
264.8
267.7
0.9
1.0
1.1
10.7
9.7
9.6
April
Nay .
June
304.2
305.6
307.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
7.3
7.7
5.9
260.2
262.
264.
0.8
0.8
0.7
9.8
8.8
8.1
270.3
270.8
272.1
1.0
0.2
0.5
8.2
6.2
4.9
July
August
September . . ,
307,
309,
309
0.2
0.7
0.1
4.1
3.4
2.6
265,
267,
268,
0.6
0.6
0.5
7.9
7.8
7.3
272.8
272.9
274.2
0.3
0.0
0.5
3.7
3.8
3.6
October
November . ..
December . . .
310,
310.
311.0
0.1
2.8
0.9
-0.2
270.3
272.3
273.6
0.7
0.7
0.5
7.1
5.6
5.7
275.3
275.9
277.0
0.4
0.2
0.4
3,8
4.0
2.1
Jiinuary
February
Warch
311.9
311.0
309.6
0.3
-0.3
-0.5
-1.2
-1.3
-0.8
274.9
274.5
276.0
0.5
-0.1
0.5
4.6
4.1
4.4
278.0
278.3
277.0
0.4
0.1
-0.5
1.5
0.7
2.2
April
May
June
308.4
308.7
309.7
-0.4
0.1
0.3
-1.0
-0.4
0.8
276.5
277.8
279.5
0.2
0.5
0.6
4.1
5.8
4.3
277.3
276.9
280.0
0.1
-0.1
1.1
2.5
3.1
4.4
July
August
September . . ,
310.3
310.3
310.8
0.2
0.0
0.2
1.6
2.0
1.4
280.5
282,
281,
0.4
0.6
-0.1
4.0
3.9
3.5
281.5
282.6
283.0
0.5
0.4
0.1
5.2
6.8
5.1
October
November . . .
December . . .
310.9
311.7
311.8
0.0
0.3
0.0
-0.3
-1.4
282.0
283.1
284.4
0.0
0.4
0.5
2.4
1.9
2.8
284.4
286.2
287.0
0.5
0.6
0.3
1.1
0.6
-0.6
310.1
309.8
308.6
-0.5
-0.1
-0.4
-2.4
r-2.0
-0.3
283.9
285.0
285.8
-0.2
0.4
0.3
2.6
r2.2
2.0
-1.4
0.1
-0.4
1.5
2.3
-1 8
307.2
r308.6
311.4
-0.5
r0.5
r0.9
1.4
2.7
4.9
285.6
r286.2
287.3
-0.1
rO,
rO,
2.7
3.3
2.1
282.3
282.9
284.4
0.0
0.2
0.5
1.1
1.5
3.0
312.2
314.0
316.1
0.3
0.6
0.7
287.7
289.6
288.8
0,
0,
-0.3
284.6
285.5
286.4
0.1
0.3
0.3
1982
1983
January
February
March
April
May
Jtne
JUy
August
September . . .
283.
283,
282,
October
Navernber , . .
Decenber . . .
Sfte note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
l
Changes are centered within the spans:
1-month changes are placed on the 2d month «and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
OCTOBER 1983
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Continued
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adjusted'
Year
and
month
340. Index
(1977=100)
340c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)
Current-dollar compensation
Real earnings
Current-dollar earnings
340c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
341. Index
(1977 = 100)
341c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)
341c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
345. Index
(19J77 = 100)
345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2
345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1981
January
February
March
133.8
135.0
135.8
1.0
0.9
0.6
9.4
8.6
8.8
92.9
93.0
93.0
0.2
0.1
0.0
-0.4
-0.7
0.1
139.0
April
May
June
136.7
137.5
138.2
0.7
0.6
0.5
7.9
8.2
8.5
93.1
92.9
92.7
0.1
-0.3
-0.2
-1.7
-1.5
-2.0
141.4
July
August
September . . .
139.0
140.4
141.4
0.5
1.0
0.7
7.7
8.1
7.5
92,
92.
92.
-0.7
0.2
-0.3
-2.4
-1.1
-1.0
144.7
October
November . . ,
December . . .
141.9
143.0
143.3
0.3
0.8
0.3
8.7
6.8
6.0
92.0
92.4
92.2
-0.1
0.4
-0.1
2.1
1.8
3.3
147.4
January
February
March . . . . . .
144.9
145.1
145.5
1.1
0.1
0.3
6.5
6.4
6.6
93.1
93.1
93.5
0.9
0.1
0.4
3.9
2.5
1.3
151.0
April
May
June
146.4
147.5
148.0
0.6
0.7
0.4
5.4
6.3
6.3
93.8
93.5
92.8
0.3
-0.3
-0.7
-0.7
-0.3
-0.9
153.1
July
August
September . . .
148.8
149.6
150.0
0.5
0.5
0.3
5.9
4.9
5.4
92.8
93.0
93.1
-0.1
0.2
0.2
-1.5
-0.2
2.8
155.7
October".....
November . , .
December . , .
150.7
151.1
151.9
0.4
0.3
0.6
5.4
5.1
4.6
93.1
93.4
94.1
-0.1
0.4
0.8
4.2
5.1
4.1
157.9
January
February
March
152.7
153.4
153.4
0.5
0.4
0.0
4.5
4.7
3.9
94.7
95.3
95.0
0.6
0.7
-0.3
3.8
2.8
1.3
160.6
April
May
June
154.0
154.6
154.8
0.4
0.4
0.2
r3.3
r2.1
P 3.2
94.8
94.7
94.8
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
r-2.7
p-1.7
155.2
155.0
pl55.9
r0.3
r-0.2
p0.6
r94.7
r94.0
p94.2
-0.1
r-0.7
p0.2
11.5
9.6
7.1
9.0
9.8
8.7
7.7
8.3
1982
10.0
7.6
5.7
7.1
7.1
6.3
5.8
r5.9
1983
July
August
September . . .
6.8
-0.1
rl62.2
p5.4
r4.1
p5.0
pl64.1
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes dre placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
2
OCTOBER 1983
87
B
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector-Continued
Year
and
month
Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries ®
348. First year
average changes
Real compensation
346. Index
(1977 = 100)
346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'
346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans l
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
349. Average
changes over
life of
contract
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Output per hour, all persons, private
business sector
370. Index
(1977-100)
370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'
370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans l
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann, rate,
percent)
358. Index of
output per hour
all persons,
nonfarm
business sector
(1977-100)
1981
7.7
0.9
January .
February
March . ,
95.8
April ,
May .
June ,
95.5
July
August . .
September
95.1
October, .
November
December
95.2
7.2
11.6
-1.2
10.8
10.5
8.1
11.0
0.4
5.8
2.1
100.1
0.6
101.1
-0.4
99.9
-1.1
100.0
0.7
99.9
1.3
100.4
r3.1
100.8
p3.9
101.7
-4.1
101.2
1.4
100.1
4.7
102.3
1.0
3.4
2.2
101.1
-0.5
-1.9
5.9
100.5
-1.2
1982
January . . .
February . .
March
96.7
April .
May .
June .
96.8
July
August . .
September
96.7
October . .
November
December
97.6
1.9
6.8
101.1
2.6
0.4
2.1
2.5
-0.7
-1.6
100.7
6.2
4.7
2.6
1.7
101.1
3.3
3.7
-0.4
1.2
1.7
4.8
2.5
3.3
101.9
1983
7.2
January .
February
Maxh ..
99.3
April . ,
May .
June . ,
99.3
July
August . .
September
P 2.7
r-O.l
pO.2
p99.3
-1.7
1.5
2.0
102.5
P 4.7
P 3.9
(NA)
(NA)
r5.4
rlO3.3
rlO3.8
P105.0
p4.8
plO4.6
October . .
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and SO.
Changes are centered within the spans:
on th'e middle month of the 3d quarter.
1-quarter change:s are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter changes are placed
OCTOBER 1983
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
D
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month
441. Total
442. Employed
1 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Number unem floyt d
Labor force participation rates
451. Males
20 years
and over
452. Females
20 years
and over
453. Both
sexes, 16-19
years of age
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Thous.)
37. Total
444. Males
20 years
and over
(Thous,)
445. Fern 3 es
20 years
and over
(Thous.
446. Both
sexes, 16-19
years of age
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
January
February
March
108,012
108,175
108,471
99,964
100,143
100,504
79.1
79.1
79.2
51.8
51.9
52.0
56.6
56.5
56.3
8,048
8,032
7,967
3,479
3,500
3.439
2 , 8 )9
2,7
April
May
June
108,866
109.101
108,440
101,006
100,968
100,393
79.3
79.4
78.9
52.2
52.4
52.2
56.9
56.2
54.4
7,860
8,133
8,047
3,353
3,540
3,492
2,7 in
108,602
108,762
108,375
100,748
100,709
100,104
78.9
78.9
78.7
52.2
52.1
51.7
54.5
55.2
54.9
7,854
8,053
8,271
109,028
109,254
109,066
100,355
100,229
99,677
78.7
78.7
78.8
52.3
52.4
52.2
54.9
55.0
53 9
January
February
March
109,034
109,364
109,478
99,688
99,695
99,597
78.6
78.7
78.6
52.2
52.3
52.5
April
May
June . :
109,740
110,378
110,147
99,484
99,994
99,681
78.7
78.9
78.8
July
August
September
110,416
110,614
110,858
99,588
99,683
99,543
October
November
December
110,752
111,042
111,129
January
February
March
447. Fulltime
workers
(Thous.)
448. Number employed
part-time
for economic
reasons
(Thous.)
1981
1,760
1,766
1,763
6,620
6,602
6,541
4.467
4,182
4,222
2,8 \6
2,8 JO
1,747
1,747
1.725
6,429
6,617
6,581
4,149
4,242
4,088
3,343
3,513
3,559
2 , 8 >7
2 , 8 19
2,9
1,644
1,691
1,759
6,428
6,473
6,762
4,432
4,448
4,612
8,673
9,025
9,389
3,815
4.026
4,367
3,0 [3
3,1 )5
3 1
1,815
1,894
1 848
7,137
7,442
7 990
4,948
5,005
5 325
54.2
54.5
53.8
9,346
9,669
9,881
4,362
4,451
4,607
3,1 )9
3 , 2 $6
3,4 32
1.875
1,932
1,872
7,822
8,000
8,346
5,066
5,489
5.611
52.5
52.8
52.9
54.2
55.2
53.0
10,256
10,384
10,466
4,770
4,818
5,016
3,5 18
3,5 58
3,5 S
1,958
1,998
1,885
8,575
8,689
8,878
5,750
5,731
5,561
78.8
78.7
79.0
53.0
53.0
52.9
53.2
54.2
54.3
10,828
10,931
11,315
5,150
5,232
5,578
3,6 2
3,6 1
3,7 n
2,006
2,028
2,027
9,036
9.209
9,622
5,577
5,820
6,495
99,176
99,136
99.093
78.9
78.9
78.7
52.8
52.9
53.1
54.1
54.4
53.9
11,576
11,906
12,036
5,714
5,865
5,909
3,8 4
3,9 9
4,0 1
2,038
2,052
2,056
9,942
10,127
10,285
6,403
110,548
110,553
110,484
99.103
99,063
99,103
78.1
78.2
78.1
52.9
52.9
52.8
53.5
52.7
52.8
11,446
11,490
11,381
5,597
5,749
5,581
3,9 3
3 9 c
1,886
1,815
1,911
9,810
9,872
9,751
April
May
June
110,786
110,749
111,932
99,458
99.557
100,786
78.3
78.3
78.6
52.8
52.7
53,1
52.6
52.2
55.4
11,328
11,192
11,146
5,702
5,605
5,288
3,7 29
3,7 44
3,c" 59
1,897
1,843
1,999
9,702
9,438
9,294
6,845
6,481
6,202
6,082
5,928
5.729
July
August
September
111,875
112,261
112,368
101,285
101,563
101,945
78.8
78.6
78.6
53.1
53.4
53.5
53.6
54.7
54.0
10,590
10,699
10,423
5,208
5,174
5.125
3.E 21
3,6 09
3,5 18
1,860
1,916
1,780
8,949
9,022
8,832
5,636
5,789
6.106
July
August
September
October
November
December
. ..
2,7
H
1982
6,411
6,425
1983
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 51.
OCTOBER 1983
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
DEFENSE INDICATORS
RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
State and local governmentsl
Federal Government!
Year
and
month
500. Surplus
or deficit
501. Receipts
502. Expenditures
510. Surplus
or deficit
511. Receipts
Advance measures of defense activity
512. Expenditures
517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred
525. Defense
Department
military prime
contract
awards
543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
outstanding
548, Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products
(Mil. dol,)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)
January ,
February
March..
-43.4
617.4
660.8
35.3
411.3
376.0
14,808
15,741
15,560
7,155
7»514
7,590
82,087
83,608
84,883
4,480
5,060
3,785
April ,
May .
June .
-47.3
622.6
669.9
36.7
415.9
379.2
15,210
15,699
15,156
8,505
7,967
7,041
84,994
85,165
86,126
4,041
5,170
5,057
July
August . , ,
September ,
-62.4
638.8
701.2
37.3
421.6
384.3
16,836
17,374
16,584
8,845
9,504
9,325
87,968
89,857
91,896
5,317
5,440
5,435
October . .
November
December
-95.8
629.2
725.0
32.0
423.4
391.4
12,892
15,674
19,805
4,466
9,817
9,049
91,354
92,575
93,827
4,711
5,269
5,244
January .
February
March . .
-108.5
619.5
728.0
28.8
425.9
397.2
19,361
20,608
18,869
9,756
13,761
9,870
98,818
102,677
105,418
7,151
6,922
6,688
April .
May June .
-113.2
622.2
735.4
32.0
436.8
404.8
20,793
17,786
17,503
10,518
9,657
14,296
108,428
108,841
109,654
6,204
5,013
5,994
Juy
August . .
September
-158.3
615.2
773.5
31.3
442.8
411.4
17,669
16,448
18,387
8,610
8,928
10,296
110,885
110,787
111,857
5,195
5,656
3,638
October . ,
Noverrber
December
-208.2
612.6
820.9
32.9
450.7
417.8
16,476
18,599
24,396
5,423
10,209
17,298
111,866
113,647
119,788
5,621
5,663
11,207
January .
Fearuary
Merch . .
-183.3
623.3
806.6
40.4
461.7
421.3
21,340
19,502
20,444
16,908
13,042
7,351
122,628
123,803
125,570
9,568
5,319
6,569
Apil .
May .
June .
-166.1
652.6
818.7
51.7
478.7
427.0
19,332
19,554
21,518
10,132
10,111
10,814
126,165
126,532
129,720
7,079
4,782
7,939
(NA)
(NA)
P832.3
(NA)
(NA)
P437.4
19,409
p20,489
11,017
plO,727
(NA)
(NA)
131,172
pl30,829
(NA)
6,901
r4,545
P4.467
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1981
1982
1983
July . . . .
Auuust . .
September
October. .
November
December
Sec noSe on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
x
Based on national income and product accounts.
90
OCTOBER 1983
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued
DEFENSE INOfCATORS-Continued
National defense
purchases
Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month
557. Output of
defense and
space equipment
559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products
561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products
580. Defense
Department
net outlays
(1967 = 100)
(Mil.doi.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.doi.)
588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products
570. Employment in defense products
industries
(Mil.doi.)
(Thous.)
Defense Djpartment
pers( nnel
577. Military,
active duty <§)
578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment <g)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
565. Federal
purchases as
a percent of
GNP
(Percent)
1981
January
February
March
100.
100.
100.
11,113
11,318
11,547
67,999
69,269
69,109
12,639
12,932
12,619
3,613
3,790
3,945
1,391
1,388
1,390
2,056
2,061
2,062
973
972
974
143.3
5,0
April
May
June
101.
102.
101.7
11,823
11,959
12,352
69,265
70,594
71,692
12,833
13,433
13,264
3,885
3S841
3,959
1,393
1,393
1,395
2,060
2,064
2,070
980
990
1,008
151.2
5.2
July
August
September . . .
102.6
102.8
103.0
12,417
12,457
12,747
72,912
74,129
75,490
13,889
13,809
14,014
4,097
4,223
4,074
1,394
1,397
1,397
2,082
2,084
2,083
1,023
1,017
984
154.9
5.2
October
November . . ,
December . . .
104.5
105.3
107.0
12,857
13,227
13,386
76,042
77,133
78,076
14,277
14,548
15,298
4,159
4,178
4,301
1,392
1,385
1,390
2,090
2,097
2,093
998
1,006
1,009
166.7
5.5
January
February
March
105106,
107.0
13,676
13,864
14,059
81,144
83,719
85,990
14,152
14,689
15,075
4,083
4,347
4,417
1,386
1,380
1,377
2,104
2,109
2,107
1,008
1,013
1,018
168.1
5.6
April
May
June . .'
107.
107.
107,
14,209
14,276
14,431
87,917
88,258
89,371
15,670
15,379
15,334
4,277
4,672
4,881
1,376
1,372
1,371
2,106
2,104
2,108
1,022
1,028
1,045
175.2
5.7
July
August
September . . .
109,
109,
109.5
14,437
14,700
15,039
89,708
90,598
89,255
16,312
15,050
16,881
4,858
4,766
4,981
1,372
1,364
1,366
110
109
2,109
1,051
1,043
990
183.6
5.9
October
November . . .
December . . .
111.9
113.6
115.9
15,334
15,568
15,983
89,866
90,561
96,691
15,972
17,087
16,779
5,010
4,968
5,077
1,363
1,363
1,359
2,108
2,114
2,113
1,016
1,024
1,027
190.8
6.1
January
February
March
116.4
116.1
117.0
16,538
16,501
16,824
101,116
101,179
102,632
17,058
16,772
16,804
5,143
5,255
5,116
1,355
1,358
1,355
120
122
2,127
1,024
1,028
1,030
194.4
6.1
April
May
June
118,
117.
118.0
16,850
17,240
17,311
104,440
104,046
106,648
17,529
16,854
17,189
5,271
5,176
5,337
1,358
1,362
1,367
2,123
2,120
2,116
1,029
1,040
1,049
199.4
6.1
rl20.0
rl21.5
P122.9
17,348
17,805
(NA)
107,865
rlO6,967
plO6,158
16,975
rl8,455
P17.414
5,683
r5,442
p5,275
rl,373
pi,354
2,113
2,115
p2,123
1,053
1,052
pi,026
p205.8
p6.1
1982
1983
July
August
September . . .
(NA)
October
November . . .
December . . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
OCTOBER 1983
91
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
MERCHANDISE TRADE
Year
and
month
602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
604. Exports of agricultural products
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
(Mil.dol.)
612. General imports,
total
(Mil. dol.)
616. Imports of
automobiles and parts
614. Imports of
petroleum and
petroleum products
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dot.)
1981
January
February
March
18,902
19.788
21,278
4,295
3,977
4,201
4,058
4,155
4,352
22,616
21,916
21,029
7,359
8,018
5,992
2,264
1,742
2,125
Aliril
May
19,786
18,899
19,750
3,604
3,708
3,256
4,311
4,160
4,388
22,249
21,232
22,005
6,919
6,329
6,521
2,042
2,299
2,257
19,289
19,031
19,551
3,089
3,202
3,563
4,567
6,207
4,559
20,114
23,242
21,274
5,400
6,335
5,709
2,108
2,635
1,943
19,163
19,153
18,885
3,735
3,442
3,220
4,338
4,366
4,005
23,077
22,508
19,746
6,123
6,483
4,636
2,464
2,239
2,164
January
Fcbruitry
Murch
18,584
18,614
18,462
3,258
3,590
3,225
4,346
4,054
3,997
22,573
19,570
20,018
6,810
4,396
4,290
April
Mjiy
June
18,005
18,124
18,823
3,400
3,527
3,332
3,932
3,957
4,211
17,714
20,477
21,187
3,894
4,180
4,855
2,389
2,135
2,596
2,389
2,785
2,626
%
August
September . . ,
18,060
17,463
17,320
2,789
2,763
2,648
4,305
3,856
4,197
19,849
22,930
20,581
5,624
5,731
4,903
2,455
2,795
2,370
October
November
December . . .
16,671
15,852
16,347
2,681
2,783
2,637
3,829
3,686
3,719
21,006
18,892
19,154
5,433
4,757
4,694
2,444
2,130
2,189
January
February
March
17,393
16,326
16,752
3,128
2,985
2,811
3,644
3,359
3,499
20,021
19,015
19,525
4,166
2,859
3,261
Ap«il
Mar
June
16,074
15,566
17,008
2,891
2,715
2,977
3,513
3,433
3,265
19,771
21,514
21,024
3,252
5,284
4,203
2,329
3,019
2,676
2,746
3,001
2,851
Joljf
August
16,628
16,630
3,072
2,973
(NA)
3,655
3,290
(NA)
21,950
22,782
(NA)
5,220
4,828
(NA)
June
July
August
dffpiciiiij'Or » * i
October
November . . ,
December . .
1912
1983
September . . .
(NA)
October
December
...
See note on page 80.
6rapht of \t*u twits art
92
M p*fe 56.
OCTOBER 1983
2,988
2,762
(NA)
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E
I
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS-Continued
•
|
GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MlLITAf Y GRANTS)
Year
and
month
667. Balance
669. Imports
668. Exports
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
Income on investments
Merchandise, adjusted'
Goods and services
(Mil. dol,)
622. Balance
(Mil.dol.)
618. Exports
(Mil.dol.)
620. Imports
(Mil. doll)
652. Foreign
investments in
the United
States
651. U.S. investments abroad
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1981
Janudry
February
March
4,839
...
93,786
• *.
88,947
...
-4,482
...
60,793
...
65^275
20,683
...
12,477
»
April
May
June
2,309
94,534
92,225
-7,342
60,031
67|,373
21,717
13,505
July
August
September
l,80i
93,082
91,281
-8,402
57,8iz
661.214
22,043
13,888
2,57i
93,221
90,650
-7,841
58,383
661,224
21,801
12,892
2,625
89,761
87,136
-6,103
55,636
6^739
20,761
13,824
3,236
90,790
87,554
-5,854
54,996
64*850
22,316
14,779
-4,854
86,932
91,786
•. •
-13,078
.••
52,24i
•*•
6?,3i9
•••
21,569
• • •
14,748
.••
85,030
-11,354
48,344
50,698
19,499
13,491
October
November
1982
January
February
March
April
May
June
..
July
August
September
October
November
December . .
» • .
.
-4,190
***
80,840
»t *
1983
January . .
February . . .
March
April
May
June
. .
July
August
September
-2,026
81,142
83,168
-8,810
49,506
56,316
17,697
12,608
p-7,874
P81.876
p89,750
p-14,66i
p48,9i3
p6|3,574
pl9,i90
pl3,257
•
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
•
•
(NA)
(NA)
October .
November . .
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of thtst writs are shown on p a p 57.
^Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports)..
OCTOBER 1983
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Year
and
month
47. United States,
index of industrial production
(1967 = 100)
721. OECO'
European countries, index of
industrial
production
728. Japan,
index of industrial production
725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production
726. France,
index of industrial production
722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
(1967-100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967-100)
727. Italy, index
of industrial
production
723. Canada,
index of industrial production
(1967 = 100)
1981
January
February
March
151.4
151.8
152.1
154
159
158
226.9
225.8
226.3
156
164
160
156
159
157
116
117
117
158.6
170.3
169.3
Apfil
Mar
June
151.9
152.7
152.9
156
156
155
226.
223,
228.
160
160
156
156
159
160
117
116
118
168.4
158.0
159.8
153.9
153.6
151.6
158
152
158
230,
229,
233.1
157
157
160
157
157
160
118
118
118
165.2
137.2
164.1
149.1
146.3
143.4
158
158
156
234.5
234.5
233.9
160
157
156
160
159
160
121
120
118
158.4
168.1
160.4
140.7
142.9
141.7
156
158
158
232.6
231.2
233.2
160
161
161
157
156
156
118
118
120
161.9
169.8
165.7
140.2
139.2
138.7
156
156
154
230.
228,
231.
160
157
154
157
157
157
164.7
162.7
154.9
138.8
138.4
137.3
152
151
152
229.
230,
231,
150
153
152
154
154
154
120
120
118
118
120
120
135.7
134.9
135.2
151
152
151
225.5
230.6
228.4
150
150
149
156
157
154
120
117
120
149.7
155.5
151.8
137.4
138.1
140.0
154
154
154
229.4
228.3
233.4
157
156
156
121
122
121
152.0
155.3
152.5
142
144,
rl46.
rl54
155
154
232.6
233.1
235.2
152
152
153
153
154
157
156
160
156
122
122
120
145.2
148.9
rl44.4
rl49.6
rl51.4
pl53.7
(NA)
<NA)
(NA)
(NA)
P149.0
(NA)
rl54
(NA)
159.6
146.4
154.1
See note on page 80.
Graphs ol these series are shown on page 58.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
94
OCTOBER 1983
ItCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued
CONSUMER PRICES
Year
and
month
320. Index ®
(1967 = 100)
West Germany
Japan
United States
320c. Change
over 6-month
spans l
(Ann. rate,
percent)
738. Index ®
(1967=100)
738c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
735. Index ®
(1967 = 100)
Frai
735c. Change
over 6-month
spans!
736. Index ®
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967 = 100)
United Kingdom
ce
736c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
732. Index ©
(1967-100)
732c. Change
over 6-month
spansl
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1981
January
February
March
260.5
263.2
265.1
9.9
9.6
9.1
291.1
290.8
292.2
4.4
3.1
3.8
180.9
182.3
183.5
6.6
6.2
5.7
312.7
315.6
318.8
13.2
13.0
13.0
445.5
449.5
456.2
13.0
12.1
11.6
April
May
June . .•
266.8
269.0
271.3
10.0
10.1
10.6
294.5
297.0
297.3
2.6
2.9
3.2
184.
185.
186,
6.3
6.7
6.9
323
326,
329
13.8
14.
15,
469.4
472.4
475.2
12.5
12.1
10.7
July
August
September . . .
274.4
276.5
279.3
10.5
9.6
8.8
296.4
294.7
299.5
3.9
4.1
4.2
187,
187,
188.
6.9
7.1
6.9
334.9 I
339.0
342.9
14,
15.
15.
477.3
480.8
483.5
10.4
11.8
12.5
October
November . . .
December . . .
279.9
280.7
281.5
6.9
5.3
3.1
300.7
299.8
299.8
4.0
3.3
2.4
189.
190,
190.7
6.3
4.8
3.5
347.1
350.3
352.4
13.9
13.6
13.0
487.9
493.0
496.1
11.5
9.9
10.0
January
February
March
282.5
283.4
283.1
2.9
4.0
5.5
300.7
299.8
300.4
1.9
0.5
0.1
192.3
192.8
193.1
3.0
3.5
4.9
356.0
359.6
363.8
13.0
12.0
12.0
499.0
499.1
503.5
8.4
7.3
6.0
April
May
June
284.3
287.1
290.6
6.1
6.6
6.9
302.9
303.8
303.8
-0.5
2.9
4.0
194.0
195,
197,
4.9
5.4
6.3
368.2
371.1
373.7
9.9
8.2
7.2
513.6
517.3
518.9
6.0
6.0
4.7
July
August
September . . .
292.2
292.8
293.3
7.2
5.1
2.3
301.5
303.8
309.1
4.4
4.1
3,7
197.6
197.3
197.9
6.8
5.9
4.0
374.7
375.
377.
5.8
6.9
7.3
518.9
519.0
518.7
5.3
5.3
4.2
October
November . . .
December . . .
294.1
293.6
292.4
1.4
0.4
0.5
310.0
306.6
306.0
4.0
0.7
0.9
198.
198.
199.4
2.7
2.3
0.9
379. E
383.2
386.4
9.5
10.3
10.8
521.3
523.9
522.9
4.0
5.6
4.6
January
February
March
293.
293.
293,
0.8
1-9
2.9
306.6
305.5
307.5
-0.3
1.7
0.5
199.8
200.0
199.8
0.0
0.4
0.8
390.1
392. <)
396.$
12.3
11.2
10.2
523.5
525.8
526.7
2.3
1.7
2.8
April
May
June
295,
297.
298,
3.4
4.7
5.4
308.6
312.0
309.7
0.7
1.7
(NA)
200.3
201.1
201.8
2.4
3.6
(NA)
401.
404.
406.
9.8
9.7
(NA)
534.1
536.4
537.7
4.5
4.3
6.1
July
August
September . . .
299,
300.
301.8
1982
1983
308.3
307.4
(NA)
202.6
203.2
(NA)
410.
412. i
(NA
540.6
543.0
545.4
October
November . . ,
December . .
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
OCTOBER 1 9 8 3
95
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
FJ
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued
STOCK PRICES
CONSUMER PRICES—Continued
Year
and
month
Italy
Canada
737. Index © 737c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
733. Index ® 733c. Change
over 6-month
spansl
(1967 = 100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967-100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks ®
748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices ©
745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ©
746. France,
index of
stock
prices @
742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ©
747, Italy,
index of
stock
prices ®
743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ©
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
1981
January
Feb'uary
March
440.7
449.1
455.4
20.1
20.1
19.3
259.1
261.7
265.2
13,
12,
13,
144.6
139.7
144.9
457.9
458,
467,
115.3
114.0
116.3
191.1
201.1
209.4
259.0
269.0
273.2
110.0
122.1
125.9
223.7
218.6
233.9
April
May
June
461,
468,
473,
18.9
18.2
16.8
267.2
269.6
273.8
12,
12,
11.9
146.
143.
143.9
494.6
502.8
515.2
122.7
122.1
126.1
197,
162.
152,
293.2
295.6
289.0
132.4
135.9
123.5
232.
245,
242.
July
August
September . . .
477.7
481.0
487.7
17.7
16.8
17.0
276.2
278.2
280.2
12,
12,
11.0
140.5
141.0
128.7
534.4
540.7
511.3
127.5
123.5
122.5
168,
177,
176,
284.8
298.6
278.9
99.1
112.0
99.1
232.
231,
192.
October
Novtsmbur . . .
December . . ,
497.5
506.0
511.1
15.8
15.3
15.6
283.0
285.4
286.7
10.6
10.9
11.2
130.3
133.7
134.7
493.8
505.6
512.7
118.8
118.0
117,7
163,
169,
170.7
259.5
278.0
284.2
91.2
93.8
96.9
190,
208.
201.2
January
February
March
517.7
524.4
529.1
13.8
13.6
13.1
288.7
292.1
295.8
10.5
11.4
11.4
127.6
124.6
120.6
518.9
516.9
486.2
116.8
118.4
120.1
185.7
193.1
145.9
291.1
300.1
298.8
95.0
98.8
104.2
185.3
176.7
173.1
April
May
June
533.9
539.8
545.2
15.9
19.0
18.7
297.
301,
304,
11.1
10.2
9.5
126.
126,
119,
484,
503,
489,
120.6
117.6
114.2
184.8
183,
166,
303,
315.
314.6
96.7
91.0
83.1
171.2
168.4
153.8
July
August
September .. .
553.4
563.4
571.3
20.6
19.8
19.1
306,
307,
309,
9.4
8.2
7.2
119.0
119.3
133.2
480.8
474.3
481.6
113.5
112.3
115.6
161,
169,
168.4
313,
320.
343.5
78.4
86.1
85.8
156.8
177.4
177.3
October
Novenber . . .
December . . ,
582,
590.
594.4
16.7
13.7
14.4
311.2
313.3
313.4
5.7
4.7
5.0
144.3
150.2
151.6
490.4
512.7
528.2
118.2
118,8
124.3
170.7
174.5
169.9
360.7
372.0
365.0
86.4
88,8
91.2
192.6
189.7
199.5
January
February
March
602.7
610.5
616.0
12
13,
13,
312.5
313.9
317.1
3.8
2.8
3.8
156.9
159,
165.
533.3
530.8
544.2
126.0
131.9
143.9
181.8
188.5
204.7
371.9
381.6
388.3
95.5
109.1
118,7
210.0
216.6
219.5
April
May
June
622,
14.0
13.6
13.6
317.1
317.9
321.5
5.5
6.3
4.9
171.6
178.5
181.0
559.7
573.4
583.3
157.0
158.6
159.5
215.6
230.0
224.9
115.8
111.6
110.3
240.0
251.8
260.2
July
August ,
September . , .
638.
641
649.4
181.6
176.7
181.8
598.7
606,
rp593,
P182.8
p630.7
1982
1983
628,
632,
322,
324,
324.5
October
November . . .
December . . .
169.
166,
rpl64,
pl71.6
410,
403,
p411,
p237.8
P249.3
rp251.7
p414.5
P432.6
rp422.4
112.9
P117.1
rpllB.O
264.3
p260.1
rp273.8
p257.7
P412.9
pllO.2
p264.4
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
&
Chan,ges over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
96
OCTOBER 1983
BCD
APPENDIXES
B. Current Adjustment Factors
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
1983
1
June July I Aug.
144.9
105.9
91.4
94.2
84.5
92.1
90.6 112.0 100.8 101.1
106.6
Series
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
13. New business incorporations
1
96.2
15. Profits after taxes
per dollar of sales,
manufacturi ng2
...
33. Net change in mortgage debt
13
517. Defense Department
gross obligations
incurred1. . . .
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
85.7
80.4
88.4
96.9
123 9
98.2 101.3
98.9
99.3
91.5 103.9
111.3
105.5
97.4
-1696 -1977 -1102
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding in current dollars'*
Sept.
100.4
99.9
108.7
90.8 103.9
99.3
98.7
98.3
-67
1253
-292
1010
1390
99.9 100.0
99.4
99.6
99.2
99.9 100.5
85.9
90.8
84.0 128.0 122.5
-169
104.4
87.8
361
543
825
100.8 101.0
95.7
95.6
89.3 101.3
91.2
95.1
88.2
81.4
80.9
102.8 102.0 101.8 102.5 101.3
98.5
97.0
94.6
98.1 100.7
100.2
99.8
99.9
99.8
99.4
99.9
100.2 100.3
97.7
100.2
104.2
99.8
98.3 100.3
604. Exports of domestic agricultural products .
99.6 101.1 113.4 103.1
98.7
93.7
84.!
87.9
89.5 106.6 111.9
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
91.4
93.6 111.8 100.9 103.0 109.1
98.J!
98.2
96.7 103.9
95.7
96.9
92.0 111.0
94.6 104.8
91.2
104.2
101.2
94.5
525. Defense Department prime contract awards
543. Defense Department gross unpaid
obligations outstanding
89.9
76.0 109.7
96.2
570. Employment in defense products industries . 100.4 100.2 100.3 100.0
580. Defense Department net outlays
1
93.2
614. Imports of petroleum and products
616. Imports of automobiles and parts
1
1
....
96.6 109.8
106.6
105.0 100.0 101.1
106.6
86.3 111.7 100.6
83.1
103.1
108.4 109.4
90.0
93.2
199.2
91.2
99.9
100.2
95.3 100.0 101.1
103.1
110.2
NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis rather than by| the source agency. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST whenever they are available. For a description
of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, THf x-11 VARIANT OF THE CENSUS METHOD
II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM.
1
Factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly
series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change Jin the unadjusted monthly totals to
yield the seasonally adjusted net change. These factors are computed by the additive version ofj the X-11 variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program.
'•These factors apply to only the loans portion of this series.
97
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Aug.
July
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
87.91
96.89
99.16
102.00
103.29
99.79
105.09
108.08
106.06
104.07
107.71
108.99
110.06
113.09
115.93
118.72
124.60
130.44
132.07
136.46
140.56
137.31
138.02
144.96
149,81
151.91
147.00
152.00
159.29
166.37
170.39
169.25
169.68
164.29
88.48
97.44
99.60
103.12
102.29
100.93
106.46
108.23
105.72
105.03
100.20
109.52
110.87
113.38
115.87
119.67
125.36
130.76
133.02
136.42
140.20
136.78
139.00
146,00
151.57
149,78
148.37
152.56
159.58
167.87
170.38
169.19
168.66
163.24
88,89
97.19
99.93
103.94
101.66
101.20
106,80
108.56
105.54
105.42
109.95
106.79
110.68
113.21
115.84
120.60
126.16
130.98
133.11
136,90
140.73
137.77
140.26
146.10
151.44
148.06
149.22
153.13
159.49
167.92
170.01
170.22
160.58
164.01
91.92
89.43
99.02
100.67
104.27
100.64
102.07
106.88
108.15
103.61
106.91
109.97
107.78
111.10
113.38
116.05
121.55
127.59
130.91
133.24
137.99
140.05
137.72
141.69
147.72
151.30
146.47
150.74
153.91
160.57
160.67
171.27
170.81
166.80
90.35
92.21
99.81
100.06
104.28
99.83
104.07
107.30
107.61
102.00
108.98
110.08
108.28
112.76
114.64
117.54
122.58
128.83
130.90
134.40
139.23
139.22
138.28
143.11
149.10
150.00
145.40
150.66
156.33
164.41
168.60
168.99
170.45
167.13
III Q
IV Q
Annual
48. EMPLOYEE-HOURS IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
{ANNUAL R A T E ,
194SL..
195C...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966,.,
1967,..
1968,..
1969,..
1970, ..
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976..,
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983... |
92.44
89.16
96.69
100.52
103.81
100.48
101.24
106.88
107.71
104.90
106.43
110.00
107.72
109.91
113.23
114.00
120.96
126.60
131.41
132.44
137.62
139.91
137.97
141.16
146.64
151.12
147.02
151.04
152.19
159.02
16B.01
171.81
171.56
164.25
48C.
92.04
88.72
98.99
101.00
104.34
100.66
101.87
107.09
108.SI
103.14
106.64
110.14
107.81
111,36
113.40
116.59
121.64
127.74
130.70
133.60
137.82
139.97
137.34
141.86
147.91
151.55
146.29
150.70
154.79
160.54
166.36
171.37
170.07
168.40
91.26
90.40
99.38
100.48
104.67
100.59
103.11
106.67
108.22
102.80
107.65
109.78
107.82
112.02
113.50
116.75
122.06
128.42
130.61
133.61
138.52
140.26
137,84
142.06
148.61
151.22
145,31
150.49
154.74
162.16
169.61
170.63
170.79
167.74
90.94
90.99
99.95
100.02
104.59
100.13
103.21
107.38
107.63
101.83
108.57
110.32
107.65
112.58
114.34
117.43
122.11
128.38
130.55
133.76
138.72
139,83
137.95
142.87
148.82
149.09
145.37
149.63
155.41
163.93
166.05
169.80
169.70
167.21
BILLIONS
90.41
92.32
99.75
100.46
104.06
99.67
104.41
107.12
107.65
102.04
106.94
110.03
108.27
112.80
114.66
117.47
122.87
128.58
130.92
134.48
139.38
139.07
138.33
142.93
149.19
151.73
145.76
151.29
156.49
164.13
169.43
168.88
170.70
167.61
CHANGE IN EMPLOYEE-HOURS I N N O N A G R I C U L T U R A L
{COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE ,
1949...
1950.,.
1951.,.
1952.,.
1953.,,.
1954...
19S5.!.
1956...
1957.,.
1958.,.
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962!!!
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
I960...
1970.'!!
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974..,
1975...
1976..,
1977..,,
1978..,
1979..,
1980..,
1981.•.
19B2...
1983
-13.1
3.7
20.2
7.3
-1.5
-13.1
0.5
0.9
-9.0
-7.0
12.1
0.5
11 • 0
-e!o
-10. 3
3.6
4.3
4.0
-5.9
-6.8
1.8
B.O
4.5
-2.5
-1.9
15.7
-7.1
-3.5
0.6
7.3
9.9
-26.8
48C.
-5.1
-5.8
3.7
5.9
6.3
4.6
7.7
2.4
9.3
-18.4
2.4
1.5
-9.5
25.2
4.8
-6.0
3.9
-3.2
15.6
-4.6
-3.2
-3.9
12.0
-3.9
-4.4
8.1
7.1
-5.4
-0.9
-5.4
1. J
8.3
-6.3
-10.8
10.8
6.1
17.0
7.3
6.2
-6.8
19.0
-2.4
5.4
-5.9
-5.4
14.9
-2.9
0.2
2.5
-9.1
13.8
-0.1
-8.7
1.5
0.2
2,0
3.1
-1.0
1.2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
89.
94.
99.
99.
04.
99.
04.
06.
07.
02.
09,
09.
09.
12.
15.
18.
23.
29.
31.
35.
39.
39.
38.
43.
49.
51.
45.
51.
57.
65.
70.
67.
71.
66.
32
33
71
19
05
45
80
10
61
45
08
89
29
94
11
06
13
49
43
52
83
04
09
25
87
43
59
61
65
57
49
29
19
05
89.37
96.34
99.42
100.72
103.35
99.26
104.98
107.39
107.64
103.01
108.18
109.81
109.70
113.22
115.18
118.31
123.62
129.86
131.77
135.86
140.33
138.54
138.63
143.92
150.01
151.33
147.13
151.52
157.95
165.70
170.43
168.11
171.09
165.46
09.54
96.33
99.19
102.35
102.57
99.36
105.62
107.53
107.19
104.03
107.84
109.24
109.24
113.57
115.56
118,31
123.88
129,80
132.34
136.14
140.46
134.34
138.41
144.09
150.29
151.47
147.54
152.00
158.67
166.02
170.73
168.76
167.31
165.30
E S T A B L I S H M E N T S OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
PERCENT)
1
-
4.8
3.8
0.4
6.0
1.6
2.9
2.6
-13.5
0.6
3.7
2
2
1
0
8
3
0
7
2
2
5
0
6
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
7
8
4
2
8
3
1
6
3
8
-6.8
13.6
1.5
-2.9
-3.5
-0.6
14.2
-2.2
11.8
-6.0
-1.3
1.6
-4.9
12.6
6.3
-11.9
1.7
-3.0
3.7
-2.0
-0.4
-1.0
2.B
-2.4
l!2
-1*.3
7.7
3*9
~s',9
-2.3
1. 3
8.5
-7.6
5.5
- 0 . 9
-6.1
0.4
2.1
3 . 0
0 . 7
3.8
4.0
0.0
z'.i
2.0
0.8
4.3
7.4
-1.0
1.0
30.0
-3.3
0.6
-3.8
3.5
2.1
0.0
4.8
2.6
-2.4
3.5
10.4
-7.1
-4.5
16.6
9.0
15.0
-15.6
4.7
4.5
2.2
9.0
4.0
0.8
-1.0
-12.9
7.1
4.6
-0.7
-1.3
0.3
5.3
7.1
-0.5
-7.1
3.8
5.0
-4! 2
2.1
4.3
2.5
2.2
0.1
2.0
6.2
-0.1
-0.4
—7.0
-7,4
3.1
7.6
-0. 6
5.8
4.1
-0.3
3.8
-5.3
1.7
1.2
1. 8
0.5
-2.6
7.5
0.5
-5.3
6.1
10.9
3.5
-11,7
-2.7
2.5
4.5
1.7
5.8
-2.6
-7.7
-1.7
-3.6
1.0
7,1
1.7
-15.7
0.5
-6.6
-6.3
3.4
0.5
3.0
23.4
3.3
14.2
-2.7
2.0
5.2
2.7
-1.2
-3.6
-1.7
2.5 - 4 . 2
-4.0
4 . 8
-2.3
5 . 8
2.8
1 . 1
-1.2 - 0 . 8
2.3 1 3 . 5
4.4 - 0 . 7
-30.9
-1.9
8.4
2.3
1.1
3.4
3.9
12.1
2.7
-3.0
12.8
9.1
-5.1
13.9
-22.5
-5.7
1.5
27.4
-6.3
7.9
6.6
-4.0
1,7
-7.1
2.9
1 . 5
1.1 - 0 . 4
-7.0
6 . 0
1.8 — 0 . 7
-3.8 - 4 . 2
1.8
2.1
4.7
—23.5
-1.2
R A T E,
0.5
4. 2
3.0
9.0
-0.4
4.5
ANNUAL
-0.3
9.7
5.4
1.0
3.9
6.1
-2.4
2.9
9.2
2.9
CHANGE IN EMPLOYEE-HOURS I N N O N A G R I C U L T U R A L
-0.6
-0.6
5.3
2.5
3.5
6.7
2.9
-26.1
5.1
3.4
2.4
3.6
2.0
4.2
0.5
-0.4
-0.5
1.4
-3.7
6.0
-0.6
10.0
4.2
6.6
-0.8
-0.6
-4.6
-2.7
-s!o
-1.8
3.9
4.2
7.0
11.4
-6.3
11.6
34.9
-2.0
-9.2
7.7
9.6
2.4
2.9
-3.9
0.0
E S T A B L I S H M E N T S OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
PERCENT)
2.3
2.0
3.7
0.8
3.4
3.5
2.6
-10.9
-0.4
4.0
2.1
-0.3
6.4
2.5
4.1
0.9
1.2
— 7. 5
-3.1
5. 3
3.7
3.0
6.4
-3.1
-U2
1.0
0.0
7.6
3.7
2.5
2.3
0. 8
11,5
5.8
3.5
3.4
-8.3
4.6
3.0
2.1
0.2
3.6
3.6
-2.9
-6.9
17.2
3.1
-2.1
-1.1
-4.6
10.4
0.1
-6.8
13.6
1.5
-3.1
-1.8
-3.5
5.8
2.7
-6.9
15.5
-1.0
-3.3
-2.0
-2.7
6.3
-4.7
-4.5 - 0 . 7
18.6 1 3 . 5
-1.3 - 2 . 2
1.0 1 1 . 1
-2.7 - 6 . 1
-1.6 - 1 . 3
2.2
4 . 0
1.0
0 . 5
-6.2
11.3
-2.
15.'
-2.*
1.'
4.
7.
-3.9
4.6
0.7
9.9
-4.0
6.9
S.8
3.2
-2.9
3.6
3.0
6.4
-3.5
7.6
4.5
3.9
5.0
7.
5.
4.(
-10. *
5.
3.
-1.
-7.4
5.5
7.0
2.0
3.5
-3.7
6.5
.
1.3
-6.9
15.4
1.2
-2.fl
-1.6
-3.6
7.5
-0.6
-3.8
14.5
-1.9
9.2
-3.9
-0.5
3.5
3.1
-0.3
5.3
3.1
6.8
-6.0
-5.5
3.8
2.4
-6.3
8.5
5,2
-2.0
3.0
-1.4
0.0
1.9
-9.4
6.3
7.4
-6.1
-10.0
6.7
-0.6
3.9
-11.2
6.3
1.2
-0.3
-4.2
8.9
-0.4
1.7
-2.5
6.7
0.4
4.1
2.5
1.9
-1.6
6.2
5.5
8.1
-8.7
5.4
9.'
n'.f
-4.<
-0.5
-10.2
7.0
2.7
-0.8
-1.4
5.8
-0.5
4.0
6.0
-4.5
-2.1
3.1
7.7
5.7
-4.8
3.1
1.0
3.2
4.9
4.0
9.5
3.9
4.5
3.1
4.1
5.1
3.4
2.3
2.7
2.2
3.4
6.
-4.9
-3.2
2.8
0.5
2.9
2.3
4.9
8.1
0.1
-1.1
4.3
0.1
2.5
6.7
7.8
3.9
-2.8
-0.8
5.4
1.5
1.8
2.9
2.5
2.4
4.7
S.8
1.0
B.O
-3.8
7.8
6.6
1.7
5.1
5.2
4.1
2.9
3.3
2.3
2.4
3.7
-0.1
6.0
6.7
-1.3
1.8
2.7
2.4
2.0
1.5
4.0
4.1
-0.7
0.6
5.4
6.2
-2.0
-7.6
2.0
6.3
7.4
0.2
-0.9
-0.3
1.6
0.9
3.6
-3.0
1.8
2.8
3.0
2.6
-0.3
2.9
5.5
7.0
5.1
-5.6
1.8
-2.4
7.0
2,5
-6.2
0.1
3.8
1.4
0.0
5.4
1.4
4.0
2.7
1.0
1.4
-3.6
-4.1
-0.5
2.5
6.1
4.7
3.6
-7.7
5.7
2.1
1.9
4.6
1.2
3.9
-4,9
-1.6
4.8
-0.7
1.6
6.0
5.3
-0.1
-9.0
6.4
6.0
2.4
1.2
2.3
2.1
-0.6
0.7
-1.3
0.2
5.2
7.1
-0.6
-7.2
3-4
4.3
6.9
4.1
-0.4
1.3
-2.0
1.1
-0.2
-0.1
4.9
6,1
-5.3
-6.5
-3.7
8.7
12.9
-4.6
-4.6
-4.3
7.4
0.8
-2.5
2.9
3.1
3.5
0.5
-1.4
1.6
4.5
9.2
2.5
-5.7
1.5
-1.9
8.6
-4.2
2.1
4.2
2.5
1.0
0.0
1.6
6.2
7.6
1.7
-5.4
0.4
-2.7
7.4
-2.2
0.4
1.1
2.9
6.4
0.6
5.4
5.9
4.1
11.1
-5.8
3.6
-2.7
4.9
-1.5
0.9
2.8
2.2
-1.1
3.8
0.6
3.8
4.1
2.4
-1.8
0.9
-5.0
0.8
7 .
- 5 .
- 2 .
1 .
2 .
2 .
2 .
3 .
- 1
- 0
3
2
- 0
6
2
4
2
0
1
- 0
- 3
5
6
7
3
2
4
3
0
7
2 . 1
. 4
. 8
. 1
. 3
. 3
. S
. 1
. 1
. 9
. 1
. 2
. 0
. 0
-4.9
-0.2
4.9
-0.2
1.3
6.2
1.0
4.2
1.9
-0.2
4.8
-3.5
-4.2
-5.0
3.4
5.9
4.2
-4.0
3.4
2.8
4.2
5.1
-0.1
2.6
-S.6
-5.3
7.6
10.6
5.5
3.4
3.1
-8.7
4.6
3.0
2.1
4.7
0.2
3.5
3.1
-3.1
1.9
9.4
4.7
3.5
-10.3
9.1
0.5
-0.7
4.0
3.4
5.6
-12.2
3.7
NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning w i t h 1979. Percent changes are centered w i t h i n the spans: 1-month changes are placed
on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes.
-4.6
9.8
3,0
4.4
-2.0
-0,3
5 7
-2.6
0.3
4.6
-2.5
3. B
2.4
4.3
4.6
3.9
1.7
2.9
2.8
-1.2
2.0
4.2
3.8
-1.7
1.0
2.8
4.4
5.4
2.3
-0.2
-I'.t
AVERAGE FOR 'ERIOD
-9.3
7.0
9.3
2,2
2.8
-4.1
7.8
-O.S
-6.7
1.1
6.5
5.7
90.03
93.62
99.46
101.19
103.57
100.12
104.41
107.37
107.25
103.40
108.22
109.53
109.00
112.58
114.79
117.B7
123.26
129.22
131.60
135.02
139.40
138.46
130.43
143.63
149.47
150.06
146.79
151.42
156.94
164.54
169.59
169.47
170.02
165.04
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
5.7
-3.0
4,0
10.0
-7.1
3.3
1.1
2,6
3 . 5 .
3 . 1
3 . 1
UO. 54
113.23
115.88
119.66
125.37
130.73
132.73
136.59
140.50
137.29
139.36
145.69
150.94
149.92
148.46
152.56
159.45
167.39
170,53
169.55
166.97
163.85
8.1
7.0
5.5
3.0
-11.0
14.6
-1.5
-0.4
1.8
5.0
B8.43
97.17
99.56
103.29
102.41
100,64
106.38
100.29
105.77
104.84
108.62
108.43
-19.8
7.2
-0.4
5.4
8.8
5.3
2.4
3.4
1.9
89.41
95.67
99.44
100.75
103.32
99.36
105.13
107.01
107.48
103,16
100.37
109.65
109.41
113.24
115.28
118.23
123.54
129.72
131.85
135.84
140.21
137.31
138.38
144.02
150.06
151.41
146.75
151.71
158.09
165.79
170.55
168.05
169.86
165.60
2.3
-0.1
-2.7
21.2
-8.7
1.2
-3.1
(COMPOUND
1949...
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957,
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966..
1967..
196B..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1976..
1977..
1978..
1979..
1980..
1981..
J.982.,
1983..
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
O F EMPLOYEE-HOURS)
89.69
93.32
99.74
99.70
104.19
99.69
104.56
107.39
107.56
102.14
109.42
109.89
108.91
112.90
114.91
117.72
122.76
129.53
131.23
134.97
139.58
138.75
138.56
143.53
149.52
151.58
145.31
151.07
157.08
165.17
170.33
168.30
170.94
166.58
6.8
4.7
1.9
-4.6
10.2
2.4
3.8
-2.0
-0.2
5.6
1.4
-2.5
0.5
3.7
-1.2
2.3
2.6
2.0
4.3
4.7
4.0
1.4
3.1
2.4
-1.8
2.1
4.2
3.5
-1.8
0.8
2.1
4.4
5.4
1.9
-0.3
-1.7
-1.6
(OCTOBER 1983)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan. 1 Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
Sept.
Aug.
July
117. YIELD.ON MUNICIPAL BONDS, 20-BOND AVERAGE
(PERCENT)
Oct.
Nov.
II Q
2.09
1.72
2.09
2.38
2.60
2.36
2.57
3.22
3.04
3.34
3.68
3.40
3.47
3.07
3.27
3.13
3.54
3.86
4.43
4.82
6.82
5.46
5.21
5.05'
5.12
7.05
2.18
2.03
1.64
2.08
2.54
2.44
2.43
2.50
3.09
3.00
3.36
3.63
3.39
3.23
3.10
3.21
3.11
3.63
3.54
4.38
5.03
6.35
5.25
5.24
5.16
5.27
2.16
2.01
2.04
2.06
2.81
2.48
2.40
2.64
3.27
2.95
3,56
3.57
3.48
3.14
3.14
3.23
3,19
3,66
3.82
4.46
5.43
6,82
5.74
5.36
5.16
5,96
2.14
1.69
2.06
2.23
2.93
2.30
2.57
2.80
3.49
3.33
3.69
3.42
3.52
3.21
3.18
3.20
3.29
4.06
4.04
4.31
6.00
6.33
5.75
5.36
5.33
6.72
2.12
1.75
2.07
2.38
2.66
2.34
2.51
3.11
3.28
3.37
3.62
3.44
3.43
3.04
3.26
3.19
3.47
3.89
4.36
4.64
6.40
5,93
5.16
5.08
5.12
6.74
2.15
1.92
1.95
2.19
2.73
2.39
2.48
2.76
3.28
3.16
3.56
3.52
3.46
3.16
3.17
3.21
3.26
3.81
3.94
4.45
5.72
6.35
5.48
5.26
5.19
6.17
7.23
6.64
5.59
6.16
6.28
8.58
12.11
11.39
7.38
6.18
5.57
6.27
7.20
9.62
12.54
9.90
6.64
5.68
6.02
6.52
8.60
11.33
11.66
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
2.20
2.03
1.58
2.07
2.55
2.42
2.44
2.44
3.00
3.02
3.36
3.60
3.31
3.21
3.15
3.14
3.09
3.64
3.52
4.31
4.98
6.36
5.23
5.2R
5.13
5.20
2.18
2.01
1.74
2.08
2.65
2.40
2.44
2.57
3.10
3.06
3.30
3.56
3.45
3.14
3.05
3.28
3.18
3.72
3.55
4.54
5.26
6.03
5.17
5.31
5,29
5.40
2.14
2.03
1.94
2.04
2.65
2.47
2.41
2.70
3.13
2.96
3.39
3.56
3.50
3.06
3.10
3.28
3.15
3.56
3.60
4. 34
5.19
6.49
5.37
5.43
5,15
5.73
2.14
2.00
2,00
2.06
2.78
2.50
2.38
2.68
3.27
2.92
3.58
3.60
3.43
3.11
3.11
3.20
3.17
3.65
3.89
4.54
5.33
7,00
5.90
5.30
5.14
6.02
2.20
1.99
2.19
2.13
2.99
2.48
2.41
2.54
3.41
2.97
3.72
3.55
3.52
3.26
3.21
3.20
3.24
3.77
3.96
4.50
5.76
6.96
5.95
5.34
5.18
6.13
2.16
2.01
2.15
2.15
2.98
2.32
2.54
2.65
3.40
3.09
3.71
3.50
3.52
3.28
3.22
3.18
3.27
3.95
4.02
4.33
5.75
6.53
6.06
5.41
5.40
6.68
2.12
1.83
2.02
2.24
2.90
2.26
2.60
2.80
3.54
3.36
3.58
3.34
3.52
3.23
3.13
3.19
3.24
4.12
3.99
4.21
6.00
6.20
5.82
5.30
5.48
6.71
2.14
1.84
2.01
2.30
2.90
2.31
2.58
2.94
3.54
3.54
3.78
3.42
3.53
3.11
3.20
3.23
3.35
4.12
4.12
i1.38
>.26
5.25
5.37
5.36
i. 10
5.76
2.16
1.79
2.06
2.38
2.75
2.34
2.51
2.95
3.42
3.45
3.62
3.53
3.42
3.02
3.20
3.25
3.40
3.94
4.30
4.49
6.09
6.39
5.06
5.18
5.05
6.57
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
7.07
5.87
5.71
6.47
7.35
9.68
13,28
6.94
5.89
5.62
6.31
8.16
10.10
12.97
6.92
5.89
5.61
6.33
9.17
10.16
12.82
6,60
5.73
5.80
6.29
8.63
10.62
12.59
6.87
5.75
6.03
6.25
7.59
10.78
11.95
6.87
5.62
6.22
6.13
7.63
10.67
12.45
6.79
5.63
6.28
6.13
8.13
11.14
12.28
6.61
5.62
6.12
6.20
8.67
12.26
11.23
S.51
3. 51
6.30
5.64
6.13
7.08
9.11
12.83
9.69
6.29
5.49
6.19
7.30
9.56
11.89
10.06
5.94
5.57
6.50
7.22
10.20
12.91
9.96
6.98
5.88
5.65
6.37
8.23
9.98
13.02
6.78
5.70
6.02
6.22
7.95
10,69
12.33
4.32
4.08
4.27
4.32
4.81
4.56
4.75
4.32
4.08
4.26
4.32
4.78
4.56
4.73
4.35
4.31
4.09
4.27
4.34
4.69
4.57
4.70
4.35
5.63
5.60
6.23
5.61
5.60
6.23
5*5S
5.58
4*59
4.62
4.77
5.34
5.40
5.64
5.*70
5.54
5*69
5.53
5*90
5.67
...
5.61
S.5B
5.60
4.35
4.31
4.08
4.27
4.34
4.69
4.56
4.70
5. 36
5.56
5.5fl
4.35
4.30
4.12
4.29
4.34
4.64
4.59
4.68
5.35
5.51
5.57
6.00
5.69
5.89
5.66
5,82
5.65
4.35
4.31
4.08
4.26
4.34
4.75
4.56
4.73
1961.*
1962.
1963.
1964.
5.45
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
5.70
6.62
6.81
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
7*55
8.99
9.06
8.45
9.18
10.24
12.60
14.23
17.38
5.45
6.46
6.78
7.99
9.29
7*56
8.54
8.84
9.04
8.55
10.24
14.79
17.10
5.45
6.00
6.35
6.63
8.05
9.20
7.32
7.45
7.63
8.66
8.69
8.65
9.35
10.26
14.63
15.04
16.41
4.59
4.63
4.78
5.32
5.39
5.64
5.37
5.80
5.50
4.32
4.08
4.27
4.31
4.82
4.56
4.73
4.95
5.63
5.57
5! 60
5*59
5.68
5.58
5.66
5.57
5.'69
5.56
5.70
5.55
4*62
4.60
4.71
5.35
5.43
5.58
5.77
5.64
7.73
9.17
8*82
8.64
9.44
13*45
15.91
16.31
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
4.32
4.08
4.30
4.30
4.86
4.56
4.70
4.92
4*27
4.29
2.12
1.74
2.05
2.38
2.62
2.32
2.46
3.16
3.37
3.32
3.55
3.40
3.41
3.04
3.30
3.18
3.46
3.86
4.34
4.60 .
6.30
5.93
5.20
5.02
5.18
6.61
©
4.34
4.08
4.31
4.30
4.82
4.56
4.67
4.87
4*19
4.29
6.29
6.94
8.06
9.10
7.37
8.94
12.92
10.66
4.34
4.08
4.31
4.30
4.74
4.56
4.64
4.81
5.38
5.35
5.75
4.34
5.45
J.09
J.52
4.35
4.09
4. 29
4.30
4.67
4.57
4.63
4.81
5.35
5.37
5.71
4.35
5*70
5.S4
...
5.60
5.45
5.46
5.45
5.46
5.46
5.46
5.45
5.45
5,45
5*45
5.45
5.46
6.58
6.60
7.35
8.36
9.07
7.92
6.81
6.77
7.36
8.46
8.90
7.62
7.57
8.86
6.57
6.59
7.35
8.37
9.06
7.91
7.55
10.30
9.32
8.93
8.77
9.81
10.58
13.54
17.96
14.61
6*77
6.81
7.50
8.62
8.40
7,59
7, 56
8.78
9.51
9.32
8.28
8.96
10.23
12.24
14.08
16.43
12.80
...
6* 41
8.19
9.85
9.13
8.99
8.77
9.96
10.46
12.39
16.76
16.29
...
6*65
7.29
8.48
8.97
7.75
7.57
8.97
10.13
9.53
8.55
8.81
9.98
...
6*48
6.81
7.89
9.46
9.06
9.05
6.77
6.63
6.63
7.28
8.40
9.01
7.84
7.56
9*18
10.38
9.74
8.82
8.74
9.81
11.37
14.26
18.55
14.03
9.74
10.61
11.99
16. 33
16.19
10.49
11.85
16.31
16.73
14*38
17.43
12.99
9.41
8.45
8.81
10.04
12.41
14.47
15.96
12.82
8.84
8.97
8*55
10.25
14*69
16.96
12.43
16.18
16.41
10.18
9.40
8.91
8,76
9.86
10.60
13.40
17.76
14.98
6.74
7.36
8.53
8.76
7.65
7.57
8,87
5*49
...
...
6. 56
7.53
9.42
6.43
8.86
10.08
14.31
16.61
12.87
16.31
15.30
(§>
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1.37
2.44
2.93
2.72
2. 48
3.99
1.45
2.14
2.91
3.48
3.90
1.29
2.50
3.00
1.67
2. 40
3.97
2.54
2.37
3.00
3.48
3.98
1.35
2.50
2.96
1.20
2. 80
3.84
2.02
2.70
2,98
3.43
4.04
1.43
2.62
3.00
1.26
1.43
2.75
3.00
0.63
1.62
2.71
3.00
0.93
1.68
2.74
2.99
0.68
1. 21
1.90
2.74
3.24
1.53
1.07
2.18
2.95
3.50
1,76
0.90
2.24
2.96
3.50
1.80
0. 91
2.35
2.88
3.22
2.27
3.92
1.50
2.69
2.90
3.47
4.09
3.85
1.98
2.29
3.00
3.50
4.10
3.32
1.73
2.68
2.99
3.50
4.04
3.23
1.16
2.71
3.02
3.42
4.09
2.98
2.00
2.93
3.49
3.50
4.12
1967.!.*
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
4*94
4.60
6.30
8.98
4.14
5*00
4.72
6.64
8.98
3.72
4.53
5.05
6.79
7.76
3.71
4.05
5.76
7.41
8.10
4.15
3.94
6.12
8.67
7.94
4.63
3.98
6.07
8.90
7.60
4.91
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979.,.
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
5.94
9.65
7.13
4.87
4.61
6.70
10.07
13.82
19.08
13.22
6.58
6.97
6.24
4.77
4.68
6.78
10.06
14.13
15.93
14,78
7.09
9.35
5.54
4.84
4.69
6.79
10.09
17.19
14.70
14.68
7.12
10.51
5.49
4.82
4.73
6.89
10.01
17.61
15.72
14.94
7.84
11.31
5.22
5.29
5.35
7.36
10.24
10.98
18.52
14.45
8.49
11.93
5.55
5.48
5.39
7.60
10.29
9.47
3.79
6.02
8.61
7.21
5.31
4.55
10.40
12.92
6.10
5.31
5.42
7.81
10.47
9.03
19.04
12.59
3.89
6.03
9.19
6.61
5.57
4.80
10*50
12.01
6.14
5.29
5.90
8.04
10.94
9.61
17.82
10.12
2.60
1.80
2.90
3.48
3.45
4.01
5.40
4.00
5.78
9.15
6,29
5.55
4.87
10*78
11.34
6.24
5.25
6.14
8.45
11.43
10.87
15.67
10.31
2*47
2.26
2.90
3.50
3.36
4.08
5.53
3. SB
5.92
9.00
6.20
5.20
5.04
10.01
10.06
5.82
5.03
6.47
8.96
13.77
12.81
15.08
9.71
2.44
2.62
2.94
3.48
3.52
4.10
5.77
4.12
5.81
8.85
5.60
4.91
5 • 06
10.03
9.45
5.22
4.95
6.51
9.76
13.16
15.85
13.31
9.20
19.10
14.15
7.47
7.58
4*60
4.65
5*68
5.57
6.51
6.53
7.42
8.36
9.11
7.97
7.79
9.46
9.16
9.03
4.34
4*23
4.30
5.62
5.59
5.45
8.16
9.12
7.67
7.52
7*80
9.36
4.32
4.08
4.27
4.32
4.60
4.56
4.74
5.41
6.45
6.51
7.52
8.35
9.16
7.89
1954
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964..,
1965..,
These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
4.33
4.08
4.31
4.30
4.81
4.56
4.67
4.67
5.45
119. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE
(PERCENT)
NOTE:
4.25
4.29
6.32
6.44
8.06
9.11
7.75
Annual
©
2.16
2.06
1.61
2.09
2.43
2.50
2.40
2.50
3.18
2.91
3.42
3.72
3.40
3.34
3.10
3.22
3.06
3.52
3.54
4.29
4.85
6.65
5.36
5.12
5.05
5.22
1949...
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
IV Q
|Q
1949. ..
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957..,
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
197 3...
1974...
118. SECONDARY MARKET flELDS ON FHA MORTGAGES
(PERCENT)
III Q
Dec.
1. 26
2.48
2.94
2.98
2.42
3.99 1
1.98 1
2.33 1
2.93 1
3.38 1
3.85 1
4.32
5 .40
4.51
6.02
8.97
4.90
4.14
5 . 33
9.95
8.53
5.20
4.65
6.56
10.03
13.78
18.90
12.37
8.95
1.34
2.48
2.96
1.86
3.93
2.00
2.40
2.96
3.46
3.97
4. 56
4.82
4.79
6.58
8.57
3.86
3 . 54
6.54
9.32
6.30
4.83
4.66
6.76
10.07
15.05
16.57
14.23
1.49
2.69
3.00
0.94
3.08
3.70
1.74
2.55
2.96
3.49
4.08
4.91
3.99
5.98
8.33
7.88
4.56
4. 30
7.82
11.25
5.42
5.20
5.16
7.28
10.18
12.69
17.78
14.51
1.92
2.81
3.24
1.32
3. 57
2.94
1. 68
2.85
3.33
3.46
4.07
5.41
3.89
5.94
6.98
6.70
5.4ft
4.74
10.56
12.09
6.16
5.28
5.82
8.10
10.95
9.84
17.58
11.01
X.02
2.36
2.93
3.23
2.16
3. 99
2.30
2.40
2.92
3.45
3.58
4.17
5.57
4.17
5.92
8.94
5.57
4.75
5.14
10.00
9.35
5.41
4.68
6.51
9.58
13.58
15.85
13.59
9.29
1*78
2.73
3.11
1.57
3.22
1.96
2.68
3.18
3.50
4.07
5.11
4.22
5.66
8.21
7.17
4.66
4.44
8.74
10.51
5.82
5.05
5.54
7.93
11.19
13.36
16.38
12.26
(OCTOBER 1983)
99
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
IQ
II Q
III Q
IV Q
50. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS
(ANNUM, RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1949...
1950...
1951... ( t
1952... t .
1 9 5 3 , . . ...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1966...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1 9 7 2 . . . * ii
1973.,.
1974.,..
1975...
1976...
1977.,.
1976.,.
1979.,.
1980.•.
1981...
1982...
1983...
492. <i
512. <J
564.' 1
593.' t
623.1 !
610.!I
644.] L
666. ()
683.! >
665.!1
711.! i
740.7
737.7
789.2
815.0
864.2
906.7
975.4
997.8
1036.6
1084.2
1081.4
1111.5
1157.2
1246.8
1253.3
1204.3
1285.0
1341.3
1400.0
1472.6
1496.4
1510.1L
1465.8
490.3
526.4
575.9
594.3
628.3
608.1
653.2
670.2
684.1
669.9
726.2
738.4
750.1
798.4
826.7
873.7
919.7
979.3
1004.2
1055.7
1088.6
1083.0
1116.9
1178.5
1248.3
1254.7
1218.9
1293.7
1363.3
1437.0
1469.2
1461.4
1512.5
1489.3
494.8
543.8
587.9
600.5
624.4
616.9
663.2
670.7
688.5
685.9
721.2
737.7
759.6
805.5
839.8
880.9
934.1
987.9
1016.2
1068.2
1092.0
1093.3
1125.7
1193.1
1255.8
1246.6
1246.1
1301.1
1365.8
1448.8
1486.6
1464.2
1525.8
1485.7
t
t
.
.
,t
t,
.,
11
t,
11
t
,
-4.2
19.1
6.0
3.2
5.7
-4.9
10.3
-1.6
3.0
-7.8
5.2
7.2
3.1
5.3
3.5
7.5
9.3
8.0
0.5
3.7
4.7
-1.5
10.3
7.9
10.9
-4.0
-6.2
9.1
6.9
3.4
1.1
1.9
9.0
-5.5
-1.8
11.2
8.4
0.4
3.3
-1.6
5.8
2.0
0.4
2.7
8.5
-1.2
6.9
4.8
5.8
4.5
5.8
1.6
2.6
7*6
1.7
0.6
2.0
7.6
0.5
0.4
4.9
2.7
6.7
11.0
-0.9
-9*0
0.7
1.0
3.6
13.9
8.6
4.2
-2.4
5.9
6.3
2.6
9.9
-2*8
-0.4
5.2
3.6
6.5
3.3
6.4
3.6
4.9
4.8
1.2
3.9
3.2
5.0
2.4
-2.5
9.2
2.3
6.8
3.3
4.8
0.8
3.6
-1.0
490.8
556.3
589.1
614.6
618.2
628.4
669.5
678.4
679.1
702.5
727.9
732.1
779.0
808.0
848.6
886.8
956.6
996.6
1027.3
1071.8
1085.6
1084.7
1135.4
1214.6
1266.1
1230.3
1257.3
1313.1
1368.4
1468.4
1489.3
1477.9
1506.9
1480.7
1 1
t
t
t
t
t
-5.4
10.8
14.1
2.7
6.1
-0.6
12.6
1.8
8.1
-7.2
10.0
11.9
3.4
11.6
7.7
12.9
20.0
21.3
5.8
17.9
20.9
10.0
40.3
36.6
50.0
11.0
6.0
50.2
62*3
42.8
53.9
73.0
130.6
-10.8
-3.5
9.5
7.9
0.2
3.3
-0.2
8.0
5.6
2.1
3.9
13.6
-0.6
11.0
8.5
8.7
8.7
12.9
11.5
7.9
26.0
16.2
14.3
19.6
29.3
24.1
36.1
36.9
26.6
60.3
107.8
42.4
5.9
45.9
48.8
1.9
17.7
6.7
S.7
-1.0
4.4
8.6
5.1
7.1
13.2
-1.6
1.7
9.0
6.2
11.1
8.6
14.7
10.6
17.1
17.7
17.9
17.3
17.7
24.4
30.1
27.8
61.8
30.4
59.3
63.0
76.9
60.3
92.4
20.5
492.2
534.8
579.4
600.8
623.6
616.1
657.5
671.6
663.8
680.9
721.7
737.2
756.6
800.3
632.5
876.4
929.3
984.8
1011.4
1058.1
1087.6
1085.6
1122.4
1185.9
1254.3
1246.3
1231.6
1298.2
1369.7
1438.6
1479.4
1475.0
1513.8
1485.4
-2.1
11.5
4.2
12.2
-5.3
6.9
6.2
6.6
-5.4
13.1
6.0
-3.2
14.4
5.4
10.6
6.0
20.6
14.3
17.6
15.4
6.7
5.4
19.2
37.4
39.0
22.2
43.3
43.5
34.5
79.1
48.1
96.9
27.3
lfi.9
0.5
8.7
8.3
3.7
3.8
-1.2
6.7
2.1
1.8
-0.4
6.0
2.2
2.6
5.8
4.0
5.3
6.0
6.0
2.7
4.6
2.8
-0.2
3.4
5.7
5.8
-0.6
-1.2
5.4
5.5
5.0
2.8
-0.3
2.6
-1.9
NOTE: Th*!,e strits contain revisions beginning with 1980.
V«r-to-y«sar d1fferences and percent changes are computed from annual data.
1
100
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1966.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
I960.
1981.
1982.
1983.
IV Q
HQ
-5.3
21.8
a.i
4.6
8.6
-7.7
15.7
-2.7
5.1
-13.6
9.0
12.8
5.6
10.2
7.0
15.6
19.9
18.6
1.2
9.3
12.4
-4.2
26.8
21.8
32.0
-12.8
-26.0
27.7
26.2
11.6
4.2
S.6
32.2
-21.1
-2.3
13.8
11.5
0.6
5.1
-2.4
9.1
3.4
0.6
4.4
14.7
-2.3
12.4
9.2
11.7
9.5
13.0
3.9
6.4
19.1
4.6
1.6
5.4
21.3
1.5
1.4
14.6
8.7
22.0
37.0
-3.4
-35.0
2.4
3.5
-4.0
12.5
1.2
14.1
-6.2
11.5
6.3
7.7
-9.4
16.6
6.7
-5.6
19.4
2.5
8.8
5.9
22.7
9.7
11.1
3.6
-6,4
-8.6
9.7
21.7
10.3
-16.5
11.2
12.0
2.6
19.6
2.7
13.7
-18.9
-5.0
4.5
17.4
12.0
6.2
-3.9
8.6
10.0
0.5
4.4
16.0
-5.0
-0.7
9.5
7.1
13.1
7.2
14.4
8.6
12.0
12.5
3.2
10.3
8.6
14.6
7.5
-7.9
27.2
7.4
22.5
11.8
17.4
2.8
13.3
-3.6
200. GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OP DOLLARS)
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958*
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1966.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
260.5
267.6
320.4
341.9
366.1
362.5
388.2
412.8
440.2
436.6
477.0
506.9
508.2
554.2
5B2.O
625.3
668.8
738.5
780.7
641.2
921.2
972.0
1049.3
1142.4
1283.5
1367.7
1479.6
1672.0
1834.8
2031.7
2335.5
2572.9
2866.6
3021.4
257.0
277.1
326.3
342.1
369.4
362.3
396.2
418.4
442.3
440.7
490.6
506.3
519.2
562.7
590.7
634.0
6B1.7
750.0
768.6
667.2
937.4
966.3
1068.9
1171.7
1307.6
1423.8
1516.7
1698.6
1895.1
2139.5
2377.9
2578.8
2912.5
3070.2
256.9
294.8
335.0
347.8
366.4
366.7
404.8
423.5
449.4
453.9
489.0
SOR.O
52ft.2
568.9
601.8
642.8
696.4
760.6
BOS. 7
8B4.9
955.3
1003.6
1086.6
1196.1
1337.7
1451.6
1578.5
1729.0
1954.4
2202.5
2454.8
2639.1
3004.9
3090.7
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1961.
1962.
1983.
-7.9
17.9
19.7
3.2
7.0
-0.7
14.1
1.7
7.7
-6.3
8.9
10.0
2.7
6.9
5.4
8.7
13.0
12.4
3.1
9.0
9.6
4.2
16.9
13.9
17.2
3.2
1.6
13.0
14.8
8.9
9.6
11.7
20.5
-1.4
-5.3
15.0
10.2
0.3
3.7
-0.2
6.5
5.5
1.9
3.7
11.9
-0.5
9.0
6.3
6.1
5.7
7.9
6.4
4.1
13.0
7.2
6.0
7.7
10.7
7.7
10.6
10.4
6.5
13.8
23.0
7.5
0.9
6.6
6.6
3,1
28.0
8.5
,H
.1
.0
i.O
7.
4.4
7,7
5.7
6.9
5.8
9.0
8.4
7.9
7.2
6.6
8.6
9.6
8.0
17.3
7.3
13.1
12.3
13.6
9.7
13.3
2.7
Annual
DIFFERENCE1
2.4
42.6
44.6
21.4
22.8
-7.5
41.4
14.1
12.2
-2.9
40.8
15.5
19.4
43.7
32.2
43.9
52.9
55.5
26.6
46.7
29.5
-2.0
36. fl
63.5
6B.4
-8.0
-14.7
66.6
71.5
66.9
40.8
-4.4
38.6
-28.4
AVERAGE
256.8
306. 3
339.2
360.0
363.1
375.6
411.0
432.1
444.0
467.0
495.0
504. fl
542.6
574.3
612.4
64R.8
717.2
774.9
823.3
900.3
962.0
1009.0
1105.6
1233.5
1376.7
1473.6
1621.ft
1772.5
1980.9
2201.6
2502.9
2736,0
3032.2
3109.6
200C. CHANGE FROM PRECEDING PERIOD IN GNP,
CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
DIFFERENCE1
-1.2
2B.2
44.3
17.2
18.8
0.0
33.2
21.7
22.3
5.7
38.2
16.6
16.1
40.4
31.7
41.0
53.4
64.9
43.6
73.8
70.6
46.7
64.9
108.3
140.5
107.8
115.0
166.6
200.3
245.6
253.9
213.9
322.4
118.9
IQ
SOB. DIFFERENCE FROM PRECEDING PERIOD IN GNP, 1972
DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
PERCENT
CHANGE'
-3.3
9.5
0.8
9.7
-3.9
7.7
3.6
4.7
-5.3
10.0
3.8
-3.0
10.6
1.2
4.3
2.7
10.1
3.6
4.4
1.4
-2.3
-3.1
3.5
7.5
3.3
-5.2
3.6
3.7
0.8
5.5
0.7
3.6
-4.9
-1.3
200B. DIFFERENCE PROM PRECEDING PERIOD IN GNP, CURRENT
DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OP DOLLARS)
1949..
1950*. . .i
1951..
1952.. , ,
1953..
1954.. ,
1955.. .
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959.. .
1960..
1961..
1962*.
1963..
1964*.
1965.. .
1966..
1967.. . .
1966..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975.. ,
1976..
1977.. . ,
1979..
1979..
1980..
1981..
1982..
1983..
Year
AVERAGE
3OC. CHANGE PROM PRECEDING PERIOD IN ONP, 1972 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1949..
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962*.
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966*.
1967*.
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971*.
1972,.
1973*.
1974,.
1975..
1976.,
1977..
1978..
1979..
1980..
1981*.
1982..
1983...
Annual
258, 3
286.5
330.8
348.0
366.6
366.8
400.0
421.7
444.0
449.7
487.9
506.5
524.6
565.0
596.7
637.7
691.1
756.0
799.6
873.4
944.0
992.7
1077.6
1185.9
1326.4
1434.2
1549.2
1716,0
1916.3
2163.9
2417.6
2631.7
2954.1
3073.0
PKRCENT1
CHANGE
-3.2
16.6
5.1
14.6
-5.6
10.0
6.3
B.4
-4.8
12.1
5.0
-2.5
11.3
3.9
7.3
3.0
12.5
7.7
9.0
7.2
2.8
2.2
7.3
13.1
12.2
6.3
11.4
10.5
7,2
IS.2
B.I
15.5
3.7
2.5
-0.5
10.9
15.S
5.2
5.4
0.0
9.0
5.4
5.3
1.3
6.5
3.8
3.6
7.7
5.6
6.9
B.4
9.4
5.8
9.2
8.1
5.2
8.6
10.1
11.8
e.i
8.0
10.9
11.7
12.8
11.7
8.6
12.2
4.0
(OCTOBER 1983)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
IQ
IV Q
II Q
213. FINAL SALES IN 1972 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1949....
1950....
1951....
1952
1953....
1954
1955
1956....
1957....
1958....
1959
I960....
1961
1962
1963....
1964....
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969....
1970
1971
1972
1973....
1974
1975
1976....
1977
1978....
1979....
1980
1981
1982....
1983
492.9
508.2
550.9
586.4
619.2
613.9
638.2
659.3
681.0
672.3
706.0
728.0
741.8
778.8
807.6
8S7.3
891.9
959.8
9R3.3
1031.2
1072.5
1079.2
1100.3
1150.9
1230.7
1240.1
1218.6
1274.9
1330.8
1382.8
1459.7
1496.9
1507.0
1495.9
497.4
518.7
556.0
597.0
623.2
612.2
645.2
664.7
681.2
676.1
713.6
735.1
748.3
790.4
818.8
866.3
908.3
962.2
996.9
1043.5
1077.0
1077.9
1106,5
1166.5
1233.1
1242.1
1230,2
1282.4
1349.5
1418.6
1455.4
1463.6
1503.6
1492.7
497.4
535.8
573.3
595.1
622.5
619.6
655.4
665.9
6B4.8
685.6
719.8
734.3
753.2
797.9
831.7
875.4
923.1
974.3
1004.4
1058.4
1078.3
1086.8
1118.7
1180.3
1242.0
1239.1
1245.1
1293.8
1367.0
1435.5
1481.9
1474.4
1509.7
1487.0
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1976..
1977..
1978,.
1979..
1980..
1981..
19B2..
1983..
21R.1
219.1
265.9
282.7
303.0
297.1
319.7
342.3
363.0
357.5
392.7
416.5
414.8
453.4
476.2
511.9
553.8
613.3
647.2
696.9
761.5
798.1
849.4
930.7
1052.3
1133.1
1180.4
1346.0
1471.0
1653.4
1907.4
2076.2
2295.8
2419.7
213.0
229.4
272.4
283.1
305.2
297.3
328.2
347.3
365.1
358.3
405.9
416.3
424.0
459.5
4RS.2
520.8
566.2
622.6
653.8
715.6
773.9
808.8
863.9
946.1
1071.4
1155.1
1210.9
1363.9
1528.3
1737.2
1941.3
2072.5
2337.2
2448.9
213.2
244.8
276.9
288.3
303.8
300.8
334.1
350.3
368.9
369.1
400.4
416.3
432.1
464.3
492.4
530.4
576.5
633.0
666.5
731.6
788.5
818.6
876.9
971.2
1094,9
1170.7
1264.2
1388.6
1584.6
1792.0
1993.6
2117.7
2423.4
2458.9
AVERAGE
498.4
534.2
582.1
607.4
623.2
627.0
660.2
673.0
682.1
697.2
719.2
737.4
771.3
802.6
841.9
878.2
946.7
975.8
1012.2
1063.2
1078.6
1083.3
1131.7
1205.1
1242.4
1217.5
1259.5
1310.6
1378.3
1453.2
1491.6
1482.5
1500.9
1503.4
NOTE:
336.2
361.5
365."1
375. L
395. j
399. iJ
414.(}
441. ()
452. 7
452., 2
474.' I
488. 2
493. <5
519.'1
533. >
563. 3
599.'I
639.(3
665.0
690. 5
710. 5
737.' I
771. L
792. 3
855. 2
860. 2
845. L
899. 5
919. 5
973. »
1011. 1
1025. 3
1040. 7
1055. L
336.2
359.4
373.7
379.0
401.2
397.5
423.7
444.5
455.5
454.9
482.2
490.9
500.6
524.1
538.7
579.5
607.4
642.1
671.1
702.2
716.8
752.5
779.9
798.7
662.3
859.7
891.4
904.1
933.9
982.8
1011.7
1012.0
1045.6
1060.2
336.5
362.2
375.6
387.3
399.7
403.9
430.fi
446.9
457.7
464.7
479.2
490.9
505.8
526.7
544.6
586.7
623.5
649.6
676.2
703.9
729.8
760.1
780.7
812.4
867.9
859.4
878.2
908.9
952.2
994.2
1019.8
1019.2
1068.1
1059.3
1949..
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
1960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1976..
1977..
1978..
1979..
1980..
1981..
1982..
1983..
224.
210.4
256.8
281.5
297.9
296.5
309.0
340.4
357.0
363.3
382.0
404.2
413.6
444.1
470.7
500.2
536.6
593.2
643.4
681.5
746.1
793.4
817.3
895.9
1006.7
1126.1
1184.0
1302,0
1418,4
1618.1
1858.4
2024.5
2200.1
2435.6
2474.0
338.2
368.2
375.6
391.2
400.1
411.7
437.8
452.5
456.2
471.0
483.0
489.0
515.0
529.2
552,5
593.5
634.8
655.9
681.6
708.5
732.8
756.2
785.2
838.1
873.3
850.8
885.1
914.6
965.9
1004.8
1020.1
1029.6
1064.3
1066.1
These series contain revisions beginning with 1980.
496.6
524.2
565.6
596.5
622.1
618.2
649. B
665.8
682.2
682.7
714.7
733.7
753.7
792.4
825.0
869.3
917.5
968.0
999.2
1049.1
1076.6
1081.8
1114.3
1175.7
1237.1
1234.7
1238.4
1290.4
1356.4
1422.6
1472.2
1479.4
1505.3
1494.8
213.6
237.6
274.1
287.9
302.1
301.1
330.5
349.4
365.2
366.9
400.8
415.7
428.8
462.0
483.5
524.9
572.4
628.1
662.2
722.5
779.3
810.7
871.5
963.6
1086.2
1160.7
1239.4
1379.2
1550.5
1760.3
1966.7
2116.6
2373.0
2450.4
1949..
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
1976..
1977..
1978..
1979..
1980..
1981..
1982..
1983..
227.
AVERAGE
336.8
362.a
372.6
383.2
399.1
403.2
426.8
446.2
455.5
460.7
479.7
489.7
503.8
524.9
542.3
580.8
616.3
646.8
673.5
701.3
722. S
751.6
779.2
810.3
864.7
857.5
874.9
906.8
942.9
988.8
1015.7
1021.6
1054.7
1060.2
IV Q
tlQ
PER CAPITA GROSS NATIONAL PRi UCT IN 1972 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, DOL RS)
AVERAGE
DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 1972 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967,
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
Year
217.
2 2 0 . NATIONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1949..
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
Annual
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983.
3,322
3,398
3,681
3,805
3,928
3,783
3,921
3,988
4,015
3,844
4,024
4,122
4,039
4,253
4,328
4,526
4,687
4,983
5,040
5,183
5,369
5,299
5,376
5,533
5,904
5,880
5,598
5,913
6,113
6,314
6,570
6,600
6,592
6,424
3,293
3,477
3,741
3,794
3,946
3,753
3,961
3,992
4,003
3,855
4,092
4,095
4,091
4,288
4,376
4,561
4,741
4,989
5,060
5,267
5,379
5,290
5,386
5,622
5.898
5,874
5,652
5,941
6,198
6,465
6,537
6,427
6,588
6,425
3,309
3,577
3,801
3,817
3,903
3,789
4,003
3,977
4,010
3,930
4,046
4,074
4,126
4,309
4,429
4,582
4,799
5,018
5,106
5,315
5,380
5,322
5,412
5,677
5,918
5,822
5,761
5,959
6,283
6,499
6,595
6,421
6,629
6,393
3,267
3,643
3,791
3,889
3,847
3,841
4,021
4,002
3,938
4,007
4,066
4,024
4,213
4,305
4.4SR
4,596
4,900
5,047
5,148
5,318
5,332
5,262
5,442
5,765
5,952
5,730
5,798
5,998
6,277
6,568
6,586
6,464
6,529
6,355
DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCO4E IN CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
188.1
201.7
220.4
231.1
248.8
255.0
265.8
285.9
303.7
312.4
331.7
348.3
357.2
380.3
397.3
426.1
458.8
502.2
535.3
575.8
616.6
671.5
732.7
782.2
878.9
963.9
1035.2
1163.7
1255.2
1405.7
1S87.5
1771.7
1967.6
2127.9
187.
201.
225.
233.
253.
254.
272.
290.
307.
314.
339.
352.
362.
385.
402.
438.
468.
507.
543.
591.
630
692.
749
1789
2010
167.2
208.6
227.3
240.3
253.4
2S6.8
278.3
294.3
311.8
322.0
339.6
353.5
368.0
388.7
40ft. 3
445.7
402.7
518.1
552.0
596.1
649.1
705.8
757.6
815.6
925.3
1012.7
1109.4
1203.3
1335.5
1496.2
1674.3
1846.0
2092.0
2191.5
188. fl
214.3
230.5
245.3
253.7
261.9
282.7
300.6
311.9
327.1
343.5
353.9
375.3
392.5
416.0
451.9
493.7
526.7
561.3
608.8
659.9
711.5
767.4
849.0
950.3
1028.1
1134.5
1229.6
1373.5
1542.7
1714.9
1908.0
2120.5
2227.8
PER CAPITA DISPOSABLE PERS NAL INCOME IN 1972 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE,
2,267
2,396
2,385
2,404
2,493
2,477
2,525
2,638
2,660
2,612
2,683
2,717
2,703
2,799
2,633
2,951
3,098
3,268
3,359
3,453
3,518
3,613
3,729
3,787
4,050
4,036
3,928
4,139
4,190
4,390
4,511
4,524
4,543
4,562
2,251
2,382
2,428
2,462
2,499
2,461
2,600
2,650
2,666
2,662
2,688
2,710
2,747
2,818
2,872
3,052
3,203
3,299
3,398
3,502
3,595
3,700
3,753
3,865
4,090
4,013
4.061
4,163
4,317
4,460
4,524
4,469
4,640
4,558
2,251
2,411
2,417
2,475
2,490
2,517
2,630
2,670
2,645
2,666
2,698
2,668
2,785
2,820
2,902
3,076
3,251
3,321
3,416
3,515
3,600
3,669
3,764
3,977
4,106
3,963
4,081
4,178
4,367
4,494
4,511
4,503
4,612
4,576
Annual
AVERAGE
3,298
3,524
3,754
3,826
3,906
3,792
3,976
3,990
3,992
3,909
4,057
4,079
4,117
4,289
4,398
4,566
4,782
5,009
5,088
5,271
5,365
5,293
5,404
5,649
5,918
5,826
5,702
5,953
6,218
6,462
6,572
6,478
6,584
6,399
AVERAGE
187,9
206.6
226.0
237,7
252.2
257.1
275.0
292.9
308.6
319.0
33S.4
352.0
365.8
386.8
405.9
440.6
475.8
513.7
547.9
593.4
638.9
695.3
751.8
810.3
914.5
998.3
1096.1
1194.4
1314.0
1474.0
1650.2
1828.9
2047.6
2176.5
AVERAGE
2,257
2,392
2,415
2,441
2,501
2,463
2,582
2,653
2,660
2,645
2,697
2,709
2,742
2,813
2,865
3,026
3,171
3,290
3,389
3.493
3,564
3,665
3,752
3,860
4,080
4,009
4,051
4,158
4,280
4,441
4,512
4,487
4,587
4,567
(OCTOBER 1983)
101
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
IQ
II Q
IV Q
III Q
230. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, TOTAL, IN CURRENT
DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1949
1950
1951... .
1952... .
1951
1954
195 ;
1956
1957......
1950-....
196(1
1963,
196;
1963
1964
196«
1966
1967.....
1968.
•
1969
1970
1971,. ..
1972.
1973
1974... .
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980......
1981
1982
1983,....
176.6
182. 9
208. 3
211,1
22B.3
231. 9
246. 8
261.4
276.1
284.0
303. 5
319.8
328.5
347.5
367.2
390.6
417.9
456.2
478.7
517. 6
565.8
607.8
652.8
709.6
790.0
853.0
935.1
1047.8
1162.7
1276.4
1446.3
1620.5
1802.8
1938.9
178.2
186.8
203.8
215.1
229.9
234.3
251.9
263.9
278.3
286.8
309.1
325.9
333.1
353.0
371.2
397.9
424.3
460.6
487.5
530.2
576.9
616.9
666.0
727.3
802.9
878.6
961.6
1067.2
1186.8
1330.7
1476.0
1626.4
1835.8
1972.8
177.6
200.4
206.2
217.2
230.5
236.4
256.0
266.8
282.8
291.7
314,2
326.0
335.7
357.0
377.8
405.9
432.9
469.4
494.0
545.7
586.7
628.1
677.5
744.2
820.6
906.7
992.1
1094.2
1216.5
1367,5
1528.3
1683.4
1886.1
2008.8
180.1
197.8
209.9
225. 0
230.0 ,
240.8
260.0
271.9
284.4
295.4
316.2
328.0
342.7
363.4
382.1
407.6
446.3
474.2
500.8
554.0
597.8
634.1
692. 6
767.0
834.3
914.1
1016.9
1127.9
1251.8
1411.3
1578.0
1741.9
1904.1
2046.9
232. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, DURABLE GOODS, IN
CURRENT DOLLARS {ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1949
1950.
1951. .. .
1952.
1953.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959,
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
. .*
.. .
. . .
.. .
I960.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
. . .
1975.
1976.
1977.
197B.
1979. . . .
1980.
1981.
1982. . ..
1983.
22.8
27.7
33.8
28.9
32.9
31.2
36.2
37.6
40.0
36.8
41.2
43.0
39.7
45.0
49.8
55.0
61.6
68.7
67.3
76.8
85.3
64.9
93.0
105.6
125.5
118.5
122.4
152.0
171.2
184.9
211.1
220.7
236.9
239.4
24.8
28.1
28.9
29.0
32.8
31.8
38.6
37.6
39.5
36.0
43.0
43.9
40.7
46.3
51.1
56.4
61.5
66.0
70.6
78.7
85.7
86.3
95.9
109.0
124.3
121.7
127.1
154.6
175.5
202.6
208.7
200.8
233.4
242.9
25.8
35.6
28.3
27.3
32.5
31.3
40.3
37.3
39.1
36.7
43.9
43.4
41.9
46.8
51.9
58.2
63.3
68.5
70.8
83.0
85.9
87.3
98.2
112.2
123.4
127.4
136.7
158.1
180.1
203.7
217.3
213.8
243.5
243.4
26.8
31.5
28.3
31.4
31.9
33.0
39.4
38.9
38.8
38.0
41.6
42.2
44.0
48.8
52.9
56.1
65.6
68.8
71.6
83.3
86.0
82.4
102.0
117.6
120.2
118.5
142.6
162.6
186.0
209.6
216.6
223.6
230.8
252.1
235. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, TOTAL AS A
PERCENT OF GNP
(PERCENT)
1949.....
1950.
1951.
1952. , , ,
19S3.
1954.
1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
1976.
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981.
1982.
1983
. . .
NOTE:
102
67.8
68.3
65.0
61.7
62.4
64.0
63.6
63.3
62.7
65.0
63.6
63.1
64.6
62.7
63.1
62.5
62. S
61.8
61.3
61.5
61.4
62.5
62.2
62.1
61.6
61.5
63.2
62.7
63.4
62.8
61.9
63.0
62.9
64.2
69.3
67.4
62.1
62.9
62.2
64.7
63.6
63.1
62.9
65.1
63.0
64.4
64.2
62.7
62.8
62.8
62.2
61.4
61.8
61.1
61.5
62.5
62.3
62.1
61.4
61.7
63.4
62.8
62.6
62.2
62.1
63.1
63.0
64.3
68.6
68.0
61.6
62.4
62.6
64.5
63.2
63.0
62.9
64.3
64.3
64.2
63.6
62.8
62.8
63.1
62.2
61.7
61.3
61.7
61.4
62.6
62.4
62.2
61.3
62.5
62.9
63.3
62.2
62.1
62.3
63.8
62.8
65.0
These series contain revisions beginning with 1980.
70.1
64.6
61.9
62.5
63.3
64.1
63.3
62.9
64.1
63.3
63.9
65.0
63.2
63.3
62.4
62.8
62.2
61.2
60.8
61. 5
62.1
62.8
62.6
62.2
60.6
62.0
62.7
63.6
62.9
61.9
63.0
63.7
62.8
65.8
Annual
AVERAGE
178.1
192.0
207.1
217. l
229.7
235.8
253.7
266.0
280.4
269.5
310.8
324.9
335.0
355.2
374.6
400.5
430.4
465.1
490.3
536. 9
581.8
621.7
672. 2
737.1
812.0
888.1
976.4
1064.3
1204.4
1346.5
1507.2
1668.1
1857.2
1991.9
AVERAGE
25.0
30.8
29.8
29.1
32.
31. <
38. <
37.
39.
36.(
42.'
43.
41.6
46.7
51.4
56.4
63.0
68.0
70.1
80.5
85.7
85.2
97.2
111.1
123.3
121.5
132,2
156.8
178.2
200.2
213.4
214.7
236.1
244.5
AVERAGE
69.0
67.
62. i
62./
62. (
64,.
63.^
63.]
63.
64./
63.'
64.
63. <
62.«
62.(
62.8
62.3
61.5
61.3
61.4
61.6
62.6
62.4
62.2
61.2
61.9
63.0
63.1
62.8
62.2
62.3
63.4
62.9
64.8
Year
IQ
It Q
IV Q
III Q
231. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, TOTAL, IN 1972
DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OP DOLLARS
)
1949
1950....
1951. .. .
1952....
1953
1954....
1955....
1956
1957
1958
1959....
1960
1961....
1962
1963....
1964....
1965....
1966
1967
1968....
1969
1970....
1971....
1972....
1973
1974....
1975
1976....
1977....
1978....
1979
1980....
1981
1982
1983....
315.8
327.7
345.7
342.7
362.8
363.5
385.2
403.2
411.7
411.0
434.1
448.1
454.0
474.5
493.1
516.6
546.0
581.2
594.8
620.7
6S1.9
667.4
687.0
718.6
768.8
761.2
763,3
809.9
BS1.7
883.8
921.2
938.3
953.6
961.4
319.8
333.6
337.8
348.6
364.6
366.2
392.2
403.9
412.4
414.7
439.7
454.1
459.9
479.8
497.4
525.6
550.7
582.3
602.4
629.9
656.2
670.5
693.3
731.1
766.3
764.1
775.6
817.1
858.0
901.1
919.5
919.6
954.7
968.8
319.3
348.0
340.7
350.2
363.6
371.8
396.4
405.1
415.2
420.9
443.3
452.7
461.4
483.7
503.9
534.3
559.2
588.6
605.2
642. 3
659.6
676.5
698. 2
741.3
769.7
769. 4
785.4
826.5
867.3
908.6
930.9
929.4
962.9
971.0
322.5
339.9
342.1
358.8
362.6
378.6
402.6
409.3
416.0
425.4
444.6
453.2
470.3
490.0
507.5
535.3
573.9
590.5
608.2
644. 7
663.9
673.9
708. 6
757.1
766.7
756.5
793.3
838.9
880.4
919.2
938.6
940.0
955.7
979.6
233. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, DURABLE GOODS, IN
1972 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OP DOLLARS)
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961....
1962
1963
1964
1965....
1966
1967
1968....
1969
1970
1971....
1972....
1973....
1974
1975....
1976....
1977....
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982...,
1983....
32.2
38.9
44.3
37.S
42.3
40.9
48.1
49.4
49.9
45.1
49.5
51.0
47.7
52.9
58.2
63.2
70.5
79.7
77.2
85.2
92.3
89.7
94.0
106.2
124.8
114.4
106.5
125.1
133.9
139.4
148.6
145.2
145.4
138.5
35.4
39.2
38.1
38.3
41.9
41.4
51.3
48.9
48.8
44.5
51.3
52.3
48.4
54.2
59.4
64.8
70.6
76.3
80.7
86.9
92.1
90.7
96.3
108.9
122.5
114.7
109.0
125.6
136.9
149.8
144.9
130.0
140.5
139.5
36. R
49.0
37.1
35.9
41.8
42.4
52.7
48.1
48.0
45.1
52.1
51.8
49.4
54.7
60.1
66.8
73.1
78.8
79.9
90.9
91.7
91.1
99.0
111.7
120.8
115.8
115.9
126.9
139.2
147-9
149.1
135.6
143.9
138.2
37,7
43.2
36.9
40.5
42.5
45.1
52.2
48.8
47.9
46.6
49.7
50.5
51. S
57.0
61.0
64.6
76.1
78.7
80.1
90.4
91.3
84.8
103.5
117.6
117.2
104. 5
119.2
128.5
142.0
150.1
146.3
139.0
134.8
143.2
236. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, NONDURABLE GOODS,
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1949....
1950....
1951....
1952
1953
1954....
1955
1956
1957
1958....
1959
1960
1961....
1962
1963
1964....
1965
1966
1967
1968....
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975....
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
96.3
94.8
107.6
110.8
117.0
117.1
120.5
127.2
132.5
137.6
144.3
148.8
1S3.9
159.3
165.2
172.7
182.6
200.5
209.6
223.1
241.3
260.2
273.8
288.8
321.6
358.4
392-2
429.6
466.0
502.7
569.3
651.4
716.3
749.7
95.3
96.3
107.1
113.0
116.9
117,1
122.2
128.1
133.9
138.9
145.6
151.8
154.7
160.6
165.9
175.7
186.0
203.9
211.2
228.2
245.9
263.5
277.4
297.2
327.7
369.4
402.5
436.2
474.5
519,2
586.0
658.2
730.6
754.7
93.5
100.9
109.0
115.0
116.2
118.1
123.3
129.4
137.2
140.8
147.1
151.4
155.2
162.2
168.3
179.1
189,5
206.8
213.4
234.2
249.9
267.3
279.9
304.0
337.5
380.4
414.1
445.6
480.5
534.9
609.3
671.9
741.1
766.6
94.3
100.9
111.4
116.9
116.0
119.5
125.7
130.8
136.9
141.9
148.7
152.5
157.4
164.1
168.8
180.1
196.5
207.4
216.2
236.9
254.3
271.9
2R4.0
312.6
346.8
385.1
420.4
455.5
494.3
556.1
635.5
693.7
747.7
773.0
Annual
AVERAGE
319.3
337.3
341.6
350.1
363.4
370.0
394.1
405.4
413.8
418.0
440.4
452.0
461.4
482.0
500.5
528.0
557.5
585.7
602.7
634.4
657.9
672.1
696. R
737.1
767.9
762. 8
779.4
823.1
664.3
903.2
927.6
931.8
956.8
970.2
AVERAGE
35.5
42.6
39.1
38.0
42.1
42.5
51.1
48.6
48.6
45.3
50.7
51.4
49.3
54.7
59.7
64. B
72.6
78.4
79.5
88.3
91.8
89.1
98.2
111.1
121.3
112.3
112.7
126.6
138.0
146.8
147.2
137.5
141.2
139.fi
AVERAGE
94.9
98.2
108.fi
113.9
116.5
118,0
122.9
128.9
135.2
139.8
146.4
151.1
155.3
161.6
167.1
176.9
188.6
204.7
212.6
230.6
247.8
265.7
278.8
300.6
333.4
373.4
407.3
441,7
478.8
528.2
600.0
668.8
733.9
761.0
{OCTOBER 1983)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
IQ
IV Q
II Q
237. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, SERVICES, IN
CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1949
1950
1951..,.
1952
1953
1954....
1955..,.
1956....
1957
19S8
1959..,.
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
19R0
1981
1982
1983
57.5
60.3
66.9
71.5
78.4
83.6
90.1
96.5
103.6
109.6
117.9
128.0
135.0
143.2
152.1
162.9
173.7
187.0
201.9
217.8
239.2
262.8
286. 0
315.2
343.0
376.1
420.6
466.2
525.5
588.8
666.0
748.3
B49.6
949.7
58.1
62.3
67.9
73.1
80.2
85.3
91.1
98.1
104.9
111.9
120.5
130.2
137.6
146.1
154.1
165.7
176.9
190.6
205.7
223.2
245.3
267.1
292.7
321.2
350.9
387.5
432.0
476.4
536.8
608.8
681.3
767.5
871.8
975.2
58.3
63.9
69.0
74.9
81.8
87.0
92.4
100.1
106.5
114.2
123.2
131.2
138.6
146.0
157.7
168.5
180.1
194.1
209.8
228.4
250.9
273.6
299.5
328.0
359.8
398.9
441.3
490.5
555.9
628.8
701.7
797.6
901.5
998.9
59.0
65.4
70.1
76.7
82.1
88.3
94.9
102.1
108.7
115.5
125.9
133.3
141.4
150.5
160.4
171.4
184.3
198.0
213.0
233.8
257.4
279.7
306.6
336.8
367.3
410.4
453.9
509.8
571.5
645.6
725.9
824.6
925.6
1021.8
239. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, SERVICES, IN 1972
DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1949..,
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
126.4
128.6
136.7
138.7
144.4
146.8
155.7
162.2
168.7
172.5
181-5
189.9
196.7
205.1
213.4
225.2
236.2
248.0
259.2
269.5
283.9
296.4
305.4
320.0
334.1
344.2
354.0
368.4
387.1
405.3
422.8
434.5
448.3
460.4
126.8
132.7
137.1
140.0
146.0
149.7
156.5
163.9
169.7
175.3
183.8
192.3
199.9
208.3
215.7
228.7
239.2
250.6
262.3
274.0
287.1
297.4
308.5
322.9
337.5
346.8
358.8
371.3
389.2
410.3
425.4
435.4
451.5
465.7
126.2
134.6
137.6
141.5
146.6
152.1
157.7
165.8
170.5
177.5
185.7
192.7
200.2
209.7
219.7
231.4
242.1
252.6
265.7
217.&
290.2
300.8
310.8
326.4
341.5
349.2
360.5
376.1
395.7
415.4
428.5
440.3
455.5
468.2
126.4
135.7
137.5
143.4
145.3
153.4
160.6
168.0
172.3
178.2
188.1
194.6
203.7
212.1
222.4
234.1
246.0
255.9
267,4
281.0
293.9
302.5
314,9
331.9
343.5
351.6
363.9
382.R
399.7
416.9
432.6
444.7
457.1
470.4
Annual
AVERAGE
58.2
63.0
68.5
74.0
80.6
86.1
92.1
99.2
105.9
112.8
121.9
130.7
138.1
147.0
156.1
167.1
178.7
192.4
207.6
225.8
248.2
270.8
296.2
325.3
355.2
393.2
437.0
485.7
547.4
618.0
693.7
784.5
887.1
986.4
AVERAGE
126.5
132.9
137.2
140.9
145.6
150.5
157.6
165.0
170.3
175.9
184.8
192.4
200.2
208.8
217.8
229.8
240.9
251.8
263.7
275.6
288.8
299.3
309.9
325.3
339.2
348.0
359.3
374.7
393.0
412.0
427.3
438.8
453.1
466.2
241. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, TOTAL, IN 1972
DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955....
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965,...
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976....
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1963....
71.3
79.6
96.6
66.4
87.6
79.1
97.7
103.9
98.4
82.9
103.7
117.4
94.0
116.8
118.7
131.8
149.4
164.8
152.6
157.2
172.5
158. 1
169.8
186.0
215.7
206.3
145.8
lfll.4
201.7
226.7
241.5
224. 3
222.7
199.7
61.6
89.8
100.
77.
89.
79.
103.
102.
98.0
80.8
114.1
105.1
101.1
118.3
124.6
132.4
150.5
165.0
148.9
162.7
173.1
158.3
175.1
194.5
217.2
200.9
146.8
185.7
213.7
239.9
241.3
202.4
229.5
201.4
65.8
96.0
93.8
80.5
86.0
84.0
105.8
102.2
99.8
68.1
104.0
102.5
107.9
119.1
127.3
131.5
152.4
160.3
155.1
161.6
175.4
161.6
175.3
196.8
215.4
190.3
163.3
184.6
222.R
236.0
237.2
197.4
236.3
198.4
NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 1980.
IV Q
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES, NONDURABLE GOODS,
IN 1972 DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1949
1950.....
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975.....
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
157.2
160.1
164.7
166.5
176.1
175.8
181.4
191.6
193.1
193.4
203.2
207.2
209.6
216.5
221.5
228.2
239.2
253.5
258.3
266.1
275.7
281.3
287.6
292.4
309.9
302.6
302.8
316.3
330.6
339.1
349.9
358.5
359.8
362.6
157.5
161.7
162.7
170.3
176.6
175,0
184.4
191.1
193.9
194.9
204.6
209.5
211.6
217.4
222.4
232.2
240.9
255.4
259.4
269.0
277.0
232.4
288.5
299.3
306.3
3.02.6
307.8
320.2
331.9
341.0
349.2
354.2
362.7
363. S
156.3
164.4
166.0
172.8
175.2
177.2
185.9
191.2
196.7
198.3
205.5
208.1
211.7
219.3
224.1
236.1
244.1
257.2
259.5
273.6
277.7
284.5
288.4
303.3
307.4
304.4
309.0
323.5
332.4
345.3
353.4
353.5
363.6
364.7
158.4
161.0
167.7
174.9
174.9
180.0
189.8
192.5
195.7
200.6
206.8
208.1
214.8
220.8
224.2
236.7
251.8
255.9
260.8
273.3
278.7
266.7
290.2
307.6
306.0
300.4
310,2
327.5
338.7
352,2
359.8
356.2
363.8
366.0
240. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT, TOTAL, IN CURRENT
DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OP DOLLARS)
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
35.7
55.4
58.7
51.1
54.2
53.1
70.1
71.3
71.8
62.5
75.2
74.2
78.0
86.4
92.3
96.8
114.2
123.5
123.5
133.8
154.1
147.8
168.7
197.5
229.6
227.9
217.5
259.6
339.6
394.6
431.9
379.5
495.8
425.3
39.3
43.6
60.7
54.1
54.fl
49.5
63.5
70.8
69.8
57.8
74.5
86.0
66.9
84.9
86.4
95.6
111.5
124.8
120.2
127.1
147.1
141.3
159.4
183.3
221.6
225.8
191.4
248.6
296.4
354.2
415.1
422.0
455.5
422.9
33.4
65.6
53.4
55,7
48,2
57.8
72.0
71.6
65.4
70.4
79,7
66.9
81.3
84.5
94.5
100.2
116.7
127.1
130.6
136.6
146.5
144.1
170.6
206.1
240.9
228.0
222.4
264.7
340.7
409.1
416.8
411.7
476.2
377.4
242. GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC FIXED INVESTMENT, TOTAL, IN
CURRENT DOLLARS
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
62.8
108.7
85.3
87.6
78.6
65.4
93.5
93.9
89.7
83.1
103.8
102.6
97.0
87.5
108.0
104.7
103.9
117.6
125.1
133.0
151.9
163.0
154.9
161.6
171.4
158.5
173.9
195.0
217.5
195,5
154.8
184.5
214.2
236.7
236.3
208.5
227.6
194.5
107.8
101.7
91.7
98.0
110.2
93.8
112.6
116.0
129.6
136.1
155.4
162.0
163.0
164.9
164.8
156.2
175.4
202.7
221.8
184.3
163.3
186.3
218.5
242.2
225.3
210.0
221.7
178.4
II Q
Year
238.
83.0
85.3
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1966
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
39.3
41.2
50.2
48.9
52.4
52.1
58.9
64.8
67.8
63.2
70.3
75.S
70.2
76.7
80.7
90.2
99.2
111.7
107.8
122.5
136.7
139.6
148.8
177.1
205,3
213.1
205.7
233,5
276.8
328.9
393.5
423,6
444.7
448.6
38.
45.
48.
49.
53
53
61
66
67
61.
72.
73.
71
79
84
90
102
112
111
123
139
139
157
161
211
215
207
241
296
3S7
401
391
457
443
0
8
7
9
0
1
9
1
5
6
9
6
4
5
3
9
3
9
1
0
0
2
0
1
6
2
6
0
2
7
9
3
1
7
37.4
50.6
48.3
46.8
53.5
55.3
64.0
67.2
68.6
62.4
73.8
71.6
72.8
80.5
85.9
92.3
105.0
112.2
113.3
125.3
141.8
141.8
161.9
184.7
214.5
217.1
215.5
248.2
307.5
371.1
420.2
404.9
462.2
430.2
38.6
50.6
48.3
50.3
52.8
56.6
64.9
67.3
67.6
66-3
72.9
71.1
75.5
80.0
86.9
93.5
108.2
109.5
117.8
130.9
140.2
143.2
167.3
196.3
213.8
212.6
223.2
261.5
323.7
382.8
419.4
426.8
461.8
433.8
Annual
AVERAGE
157.4
161.8
165.3
171.2
175.7
177.0
185.4
191.6
194.9
196.8
205.0
208.2
211.9
218.5
223.0
233.3
244.0
255.5
259.5
270.5
277.3
283.7
288.7
300.6
307.4
302.5
307.5
321.9
333.4
344.4
353.1
355.6
362.5
364.2
AVERAGE
35.3
53.8
59.2
52.1
53.3
52.7
68.4
71.0
69.2
61.9
78.1
75.9
74.8
85.4
90,9
97.4
113.5
125.7
122.8
133.3
149.3
144.2
166.4
195.0
229.8
228.7
206.1
257.9
324.1
386.6
423.0
401.9
474.9
414.5
AVERAGE
38.4
47.0
48.9
49.0
52.9
54.3
62.4
66.3
67.9
63.4
72.5
72.9
72.5
79.2
84.9
91.7
103.7
111.6
112.5
125.4
139.5
141.0
158.8
184.8
211.3
214.5
213.0
246.0
301.0
360.1
408.8
411.7
456.5
439.1
(OCTOBER 1 9 8 3 )
103
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
IV Q
IQ
500.
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SURPLUS OR DEFICIT, NIPA
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
0.6
-4.7
18.3
0.2
-4.5
-10.6
1.8
6.6
4.6
-7.5
-2.9
7.6
-4.3
-5.6
-1.9
-3.0
4.6
0.6
-12.9
-9.8
11.4
-1.3
-18.5
-12.fi
-8.6
-4.7
-45.5
-56.3
-37.6
-48.4
-10.1
-38,5
-43.4
-108.5
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
195S
1960.
196',..
196;t.
196*1
196JI
196«i
196V
196GI
196?
197C
1971
1972
1973
197-3
1975
1976
197?
1970
1979
1980
1901.
1982
1963
502.
1949
1950
1951
1952,....
1953
1954,
.
1955,
1956.....
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1970
1971...,.
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
-3.1
7.8
8.4
-3.7
-6.2
-6.7
4.9
5.8
2.B
-11.9
1.6
4.2
-5.1
-4.1
1.9
-6.7
3.9
1.3
-13.2
-12.2
11.5
-13.1
-23.7
-19.8
-7.1
-10.6
-99.0
-48.2
-41.9
-26.6
-6.7
-64.3
-47.3
-113.2
-4.1
16, e>
l.r
-7.!
-5.( )
-5.]
4.JI
5.;
2.a
-12.]
-1.'
l.<
-3.9
-3.; I
1.3
-2.4
-3.0
-3.2
-13. i
-2.(»
6.!>
-14.<i
-23.'
-10.! >
-2.(>
-8./ \
-66. i
-51.6
-52.]
-23.:
-lfi.O
-73.: 1
-62.4
158,: >
-4.1
17.3
-1.7
-3.7
-11.8
-1.9
6.5
6.3
-i.3
-10.0
-1.5
-1.1
-2.2
-4.0
-0.2
-1.0
-3.4
-5.9
-13.0
0.3
4.3
-20.4
-22.2
-24.1
-4.0
-22.4
-66.1
-56.3
-51.8
-19.6
-29.6
-69.0
-95.8
-208.2
40.0
47.2
47.6
66.1
76.3
73.5
67.9
69.4
78.1
83.5
90.5
90,2
98.9
109.0
113.5
118.3
118.2
135.8
159.9
173.4
184.0
193.9
213.4
235.8
260.7
279.6
333.6
376.3
401.7
445.1
487.9
564.5
660.8
728.0
41.7
39.0
54.5
70.1
78.2
69.6
66.7
71.8
79.8
87.8
89.9
92.3
101.7
109.2
112.2
118.8
120.4
140.0
160.9
180.9
1B7.1
207.4
220.8
244.0
262.R
295.2
353.6
375.7
412,4
451.1
493.4
587.7
669.9
735.4
42.4
36.5
61.2
74.4
76.6
68.7
6S. 9
72,4
79.8
91.6
91.5
94.2
102.8
110.7
114.1
117.6
126.1
146.9
165.1
182.6
189.8
205.7
222.3
238.1
262.3
305.0
365.3
387,4
429.6
465.6
518.0
616.5
701.2
773.5
NOTE:
104
18.8
20.5
23.1
24.5
26.3
28.4
30. 5
33.7
37.7
40.1
45.0
48.3
52,5
57.1
61.0
67.2
72,6
81.0
90.1
102.3
114,5
130.1
145.4
166.3
191.9
203.1
224.0
258.0
284.7
316.7
341.0
375.3
411.3
42S.9
19.0
21.0
23.1
25.0
27.8
28.7
31.2
34.6
38.1
41.3
45.3
49.6
53.3
58.0
62.3
68.8
74.2
83.8
91-0
106.0
118.0
133.7
151.6
178.6
193.6
209.6
233.7
263.7
293.9
329.1
344.3
377.2
415.9
436.8
19.9
21.8
23.4
25.8
27.7
29. 3
32.
35.5
38.8
42.0
47.7
50.5
54.5
58.9
64.1
70.5
75.9
86.3
94.7
108.9
122. 2
137.5
155.2
175.8
194.8
214.2
243.7
269.5
304.0
327.8
356.3
389.4
421.6
442.8
Tiose series contain revisions beginning with 1980.
Year
-2.6
9.2
6.5
-3.7
-7.1
-6.0
4.4
6.1
2.3
-10.3
-1.1
3.0
-3.9
-4.2
0.3
-3.3
0.5
-1.8
-13.2
-6.0
8.4
-12.4
-22.0
-16.8
-5.6
-11.5
-69.3
-53.1
-45.9
-29.5
-16.1
-61.2
-62.2
-147.1
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959....
1960
1961....
1962
1963....
1964
1965
1966....
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974....
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
510.
41.4
40.4
67,9
73,6
77.4
67,6
69.0
74.2
81.0
93.0
91.9
95.7
104.4
112.8
116.8
118.0
130.5
151.8
168.9
185.1
192.9
210.3
225.9
259.4
271.2
317.6
374.0
399.9
440.6
482.4
539.6
639.8
725.0
820.9
41.3
40,8
57.8
71.1
77.1
69,8
68.1
71.9
79.6
88.9
91.0
93.1
101.9
110.4
114.2
118.2
123.8
143.6
163.7
180.5
188.4
204.3
220.6
244. 3
264.2
299.3
356,6
384.8
421,1
461.0
509.7
602.1
689.2
764.4
19.S
21.3
23.4
25.4
27.4
29.0
31.7
35.0
38.5
42.0
46.4
49.9
54.0
58.5
63.2
69.5
75.1
84.fl
93.6
107.3
120.
135.
153.
178.
195.
211.
237.
267.8
297.7
327.6
352.0
386.1
418.1
439.1
Annual
40.6
42.6
65.9
66.3
71.8
62.9
69.7
76.0
82.7
76.0
87.6
97.9
94.5
103.3
111.6
115.4
122.7
136.5
147.0
163.6
195.4
192.7
194.9
223.0
252.1
274.8
288.2
320.0
364.1
396.7
477.8
526.1
617.4
619.5
38.6
46.8
62.
66.
71.
62.
71.
77.
82.5
75.9
91.6
96.4
96.6
105.1
114.1
112.1
124.4
141.3
147.6
168.8
198.5
194.3
197.1
224.2
255.6
284.6
254.5
327.5
370.5
424.4
486,7
523.4
622.6
622.2
38.3
53.1
62.2
66.9
70.8
63.5
73.6
77.6
82.6
79.5
89.8
95.7
90.9
107.5
115.3
US.2
123.1
143.7
151.5
180.0
196.3
190.7
198.6
227.6
259.7
296.6
298.7
335.9
377.5
442,3
500.0
543.2
638.8
615.2
37.4
57.7
66.2
69.9
65.6
65.7
75.5
80.5
79.6
83.0
90.4
94.6
102.2
108.8
116,6
117.0
127.1
145.9
155.9
185.4
197.2
189.8
203.7
235.3
267.2
295.3
307.9
343.6
388.7
462.8
510.1
570.8
629.2
612.6
38.7
50.0
64.3
67.3
70.0
63.7
72.6
78.0
81.9
78,7
89.8
96.1
98.1
106.2
114.4
114.9
124.3
141.8
150.5
174,4
196.9
191.9
198.6
227.5
258.6
287.8
287.3
331.8
375.2
431.6
493.6
540.9
627.0
617.4
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT SURPLUS OR DEFICIT, NIPA
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962.....
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
-0.1
-1.4
0.0
-0.3
-0.4
-0.6
-1.6
-1.0
-0.7
-2.5
-1.7
0.2
-0.8
0.1
0.1
0.9
1.0
0.4
-1.2
0.2
0.0
3.5
0.4
5.7
16.7
9.5
1.7
10.1
23.7
31.6
32.3
30.9
35.3
28.8
-0.8
-1.7
-0.6
-0.6
1.0
-1.0
-1.6
-0.9
-1.3
-2.4
-1.6
0.2
-0.1
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.9
-2.3
0.2
0.4
3.1
2.4
16.6
14.5
7.8
5.7
13.8
26,1
34.0
26.8
26.2
36.7
32.0
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
0.4
0.2
-1.4
-0.9
-0.7
-1.4
-2.9
0.7
0.0
0.1
0.6
0.6
1.3
-0.8
1.1
-0.7
0.0
2.0
1.0
3.3
9.9
11.5
5.7
7.7
17.4
32.0
25.7
30.9
30.0
37.3
31.3
-1.1
-0.9
-0.3
0.4
-0.1
-1.3
-0.9
-0.9
-2.0
-1.7
0.9
-0.1
-0.7
0.7
0.6
1.2
-0.7
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
3.6
-0.2
4. 2
21.8
11.0
4.2
6.8
25.0
30.4
29.8
31.6
35.1
32.0
32.9
-0.7
-1.2
-0.4
0.0
0.1
-1.1
-1.3
-0.9
-1.4
-2.4
-0.4
0.1
-0.4
Q.5
0.5
1.0
0.0
0.5
-1.1
0.1
1.5
1.9
2.6
13.5
13.4
6.8
5.5
16.6
26,0
30.3
30.4
30.6
35,3
31.3
21.1
22.9
24,4
26.0
2fl.O
31.1
33.6
37.0
41.3
46.0
46.9
51.2
56.4
59.3
65.0
70.3
78.4
88.6
98.7
112.0
122.4
140.5
155.7
170.8
188.fl
214.3
242. $
255.0
278.1
307.1
334.7
367.3
391.4
417.8
20.2
22.5
23.9
25.5
27.3
30.2
33.0
35.9
39. 8
44.3
46.9
49.8
54.4
58.0
62.8
68.5
75.1
84.3
94.7
107.2
118.7
133.5
150.4
164.8
181.6
204.6
232.2
251.2
269.7
297.3
321.5
355.5
382.7
407.8
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES,
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
AVERAGE
20,0
22.0
24,1
26.4
27.9
29.8
32.8
36.2
39.3
44.4
47.8
51.1
55.7
60.0
65.6
71.6
77.7
88.2
98.6
111.9
126.1
140.4
159.9
192.6
199.8
218.5
249.4
280.0
308.4
336.9
366.3
402.5
423.4
450.7
IV Q
501. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS, NIPA
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
AVERAGE
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, NIPA
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT RECEIPTS,
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1949.,.
1950.,,
1951.,.
1952...
1953.,.
1954..,
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960.,,
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965,..
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970..,
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974..,
1975.. ,
1976.. ,
1977..„
1978..,
1979..,
1980..,
1981...
1982..,
1983...
Annual
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957.
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970.....
1971
1972.....
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
18.9
21.8
23.2
24.8
26.8
29.0
32.2
34.7
38.5
42.6
46.7
48.1
53.2
57.0
60.9
66.4
71.6
80.6
91.3
102.1
114.5
126.6
145.0
160.6
175.2
193.6
222.3
247.8
261.0
285.1
308.7
344.4
376.0
397.2
19.8
22.7
23.7
25.7
26.8
29.7
32.8
35.5
39,4
43.7
47.0
49.5
53.4
57.5
61.7
68.2
73.8
82.9
93.3
105.8
117.6
130.6
149.2
162,0
179.1
201.8
228.0
249.9
267.8
295.1
317.5
351.0
379,2
404.8
20.7
22.6
24.2
25.4
27.5
30.7
33,1
36.2
40.2
44.9
47.0
50.5
54.4
58.3
63.5
69.2
76.7
85.2
95.4
108.9
120.2
136.4
151.9
166,0
183,3
208.5
235.9
252.1
272.0
302.1
325.4
359.4
384.3
411.4
(OCTOBER 1983)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
(Nov.)
T
Year
and
quarter
I m p l i c i t price
d e f l a t o r , gross
nonfarm business
product 1
(Index: 1977=100)
Unit labor cost,
a l l persons, nonfarm
business sector 1
(Index:
1977=100)
1981
I Q....
I I Q...
I l l Q..
IV Q...
136.2
138.4
141.8
145.0
139.2
141.6
143.5
147,8
146.4
148.3
149.1
150.5
151.3
153.6
155.4
157.1
(Nov.)
P
(Hat.)
T
HI 111 111 iiifiiiini in in
{Nov.)
T
in III If!
III
Components of BCD series 2 6 -
i in i i
Implicit price deflator, gross nonfi rm
business product Q
(index: 1977 = 100)
1983
152.4
rl53.6
pl54.6
I Q....
I I Q...
I l l Q..
IV Q...
—
no
- 1 170
160
150
— 140
130
— 120
—
1982
I Q....
I I Q...
I l l Q..
IV Q...
Ratio scale
160
150
140
130
120
Unit labor cost, alt persons, nonfa
business sector, Q
(index: 1977 = 100)
158.3
rl57.4
P157.3
—
110
100
—
90
—
80
-
70
ratios in 1972 dollars (ratio)—
Arithmetic
scale
Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars 2
Year
and
month
Manufacturing
fMerchant
Retail
-
trade
2.2
wholesalers
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
2.1
1982
Jan
Feb...,
Mar....
Apr....
May....
June...
2.11
2.06
2.05
2.07
2,03
2.02
1.49
1.45
1.43
1.50
1.45
1.50
1.45
1.40
1.42
1.42
1.38
1.43
July...
Aug
Sept...
Oct....
Nov
Dec...
2.03
2.05
1.52
1.51
1.55
1.56
1.54
1.55
1.42
1.43
1.43
1.43
1.38
1.39
2.05
2.12
2.09
2.06
mm
2.0
-
1.9
—
1.8
1.6
-
1.5
1.4
1983
Jan....
Feb....
Mar
Apr....
May
June...
1.97
1.97
1.91
1.89
1.85
1.79
1.47
1.51
1.50
1.52
1.41
1.37
1.38
1.41
1.38
1.38
1.35
1.33
July...
Aug
Sept...
Oct....
Nov
Dec
rl.82
pi. 80
(NA)
1.39
pi.41
(NA)
rl.33
pi. 37
-
1.3
-
1.6
-
1.5
1.4
(NA)
1.3
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1 9 7 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983
NOTE: The V
indicates revised; °p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
'Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor S t a t i s t i c s .
2
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
105
G.
Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Net contribution to index
Basic data
Series title
(and unit of measure)
LEADING INDICATORS
1,. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing (hours)
5, Average weekly initial claims,
State
unemployment insurance1 (thousands)
8, New orders for consumer goods and materials
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
32. Vendor performance, companies receiving
slower deliveries (percent)
12. Net business formation
(index: 1967=100)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
29. New building permits, private housing
units (index: 1967=100)
36. Change in inventories3 on hand and on order in
1972 d o K , smoothed (ann. rate, bil. dol.) .
99. Change in 3 sensitive materials prices,
smoothed (percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
. .
106. Honey supply (M2) in 1972 dollars
(billion dollars)
111. Change in credit—business and consumer
borrowing (annual rate, percent). . . . . . .
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators3
(index: 1967=100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
(thousands)
51. Personal income less transfers in 1972
dollars (annual rate, billion dollars).
47. Industrial production, total
(index: 1967=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972
dollars (million dollars) ,
920. Composite index
of 4 roughly coincident
indicators3 (index: 1967=100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment1
(weeks)
77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories to sales,
manufacturing and trade (ratio)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturingactual data as a percent of trend (percent)
109.
Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
101.
95.
930.
Commercial and i n d u s t r i a l loans outstanding
in 1972 d o l l a r s ( m i l l i o n d o l l a r s ) . . . . .
Ratio, consumer installment c r e d i t t o
personal income (percent)
Composite index o f 6 lagging i n d i c a t o r s 3
(index: 1967=100)
June
1983
July
1983
Aug.
1983
Sept.
1983
June
to
July
1983
July
to
Aug.
1983
40.1
40.2
40.3
p40.7
0.08
0.08
406
380
408
387
0.18
-0.20
0.09
0.15
0.
0.36
34.20
34.86
r35,96
p35.06
52
52
61
60
116.4
rll5.5
rll2.4
pll5.3
-0,11
-0,38
rl4.48
rl2.53
13.43
pl4.81
-0,32
0.15
142.2
143.9
133.4
121.6
0.04
-0.23
r0.99
r5.79
pl2.63
NA
0.27
0.38
r0.98
0.90
1.07
0.93
-0.03
0.07
166.39
166.96
162.42
167.16
0.02
-0.17
890.5
r891.9
892.5
p891.9
0.05
0,02
r5.7
9.7
p8.5
0.21
-0.06
rl57.2
rl58.2
rl58.7
pl60.2
0,64
0.32
89,844
r90,152
r89,735
p90,468
0.28
-0.38
1,094.0
rl,096.8
rl,096.2
pi,102.9
0.13
-0.03
rl46.4
rl49.6
rl51.4
pl53.7
0.60
0,33
164,405
rl62,776
pl62,866
-0.22
0.01
139.8
rl40.7
rl40.4
22.0
21.7
19.9
1.56
rl.58
pi.59
r93.1
91.7
10.50
NA
NA
pl42.7
20.2
0.64
-0.21
0.10
0.63
NA
0.26
0.13
r90.7
p89.5
-0.51
10.50
10.89
11.00
102,468
rlO2,377
rl02,108
pl01,817
-0.02
12.98
rl3.09
pl3.17
NA
0.42
0.31
109.5
rlO9.8
rll0.8
pllO.O
0.27
0.91
0.
-0.37
0.27
-0.07
NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. I t
is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the February 1983 issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGE
(pp, 108-109) for th$ weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated.
*This series is inverted in computing the composite index; i . e . , a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
'This
series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
9
Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment
factor for the leading index is 0.139; for the coincident index, -0.175; for the lagging index, 0.018.
106
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
.|M.M|..,.F|FFTTTTTTFFI|F!F
1. Average workweek, production
workers, manufacturing
Deviations
from
reference
peaks
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
Percent
+2
• 40.5
+1
• 40.0
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
7/81
TROUGH
DATA
YEAR
SERIES
1
HOURS
0
-2.3
39.0
11/82
1
2
3
4
-2.3
-0.5
-1.8
-1.0
39.0
39.7
39.2
39.5
12/82
1/83
2/83
3/8 3
5
6
7
8
0.5
0.3
0.5
0.8
40.1
40.0
40.1
40.2
4/83
5/83
6/8 3
7/83
9
10
1.0
2.0
40.3
40.7
8/83
9/83
T l F 11 I I I I I I I 1 I F F F F F 1 F T T T J T F F F F F F
1. Average workwi ;ek, production
workers, manu acturing
Rtrc«nt
+5
^39.5
-2
• 39.0
•
38.5
-4
•
- 6
8. New orders for consumer goods and
materials, 1972 dollars, smoothed1
38.0
*37.5
38.8
9/82
38.9
39.0
10/82
11/82
12/82
1/83
0
0.
1
2
3
4
0.3
0.5
0.5
2.3
5
6
7
8
1.0
1.8
3.4
3.1
39.5
40.1
40.0
2/83
3/83
4/8 3
5/8 3
9
10
11
12
3.4
3.6
3.9
4.9
40.1
40.2
40.3
40.7
6/8 3
7/8 3
8/83
9/8 3
+3
T
39.0
39.7
39.2
+2
29.04
28.58
9/82
10/82
-18.1
28.13
11/8 2
1
2
3
4
-14.6
29.34
30.44
31.65
31.82
12/82
1/83
2/83
3/8 3
5
6
7
a
-5.1
-2.8
-0.1
1.9
32.61
33.38
34.32
35.01
4/8 3
5/83
6/83
7/8 3
9
2.7
35.29
8/8 3
-2
-1
+ 20
0
+ 15
+ 10
+ 5
•
35
-15.4
-16.8
-11.4
-7.9
-7.4
• 38.5
"2
30
• 37.5
-4
New orders fo|r consumer goods and
materials, 1972 dollars, smoothed *
0.
T
Percent
+ 40 #40
• 38
+30
• 36
+ 20
28.58
10/82
-1.6
2.6
6.5
10.7
28.13
29.34
30.44
31.65
11/82
12/8 2
1/83
2/83
5
6
7
8
11.3
14.1
16.8
20.1
31.82
32.61
33.38
34.32
3/83
4/83
5/83
6/83
9
10
22.5
23.5
35.01
35.29
7/83
8/83
•38.0
-3
SERIES
8
B I L . DOL.
-10
• 39.5
-1
DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
10/82
DATA
YEAR
•
40.0
• 39.0
0
-5
•
+1
DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
DATA
YEAR
7/81
Percent
40
40.5
SERIES
1
HOURS
SERIES
8
B I L . DOL
•
•
+4
DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
FROM
SPEC.
ACTUAL
AND
9/82
TROUGH
DATA
YEAR
-1
DeviActual
ations
data
from
for
specific current
troughs cycle
• 34
-15
1982
1975
-20
-25
-12
-6
0
+6
• 32
+ 10
• 30
+12 +18
Months from reference troughs
1...I..,,,1M,,LI
-12
-6
|0
1..i.. 1 , . , . , I M
+6
+12 +18
Months from specific troughs
NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of the July 1983 issue.
*Trns series is an MCD moving average placed on the center month of the span.
"Numeral indicates latest month used in computing the series.
107
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued
, V T I M | . . M . | , , M IJfTTTI JFT1TTJ1
QRTRS.
FROM
REF.
TROUGH
30. Change in business inventories,
19/2 dollars
CURRENT QRTR.
ACTUAL
AND
DATA YEAR
-1
SERIES 30
ANN. RATE
BIL. DOL
-10.2
1/82
-3.4 11/82
-1.3 111/82
0
-22.7
1
-15.4
1/83
-5.4 11/83
4.8 111/83
-3
-2
2
3
p
30. Change in business inventories,
1972 dollars
IV/82
ORTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT ORTR.
SPEC.
AND
FROM ACTUAL
DATA YEAR
TROUGH IV/82
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
SERIES 30
ANN. RATE
BIL. DOL
1/82
12.5
-10.2
-3.4 11/82
19.3
21.4
-1.3 CII/82
0. T
7.3
17.3
27.5
-22.7
IV/82
-15.4
1/83
-5.4 11/83
4.8 [11/83
ORTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
REF.
DATA YEAR
TROUGH 111/81
-3
-2
-1
SERIES 50
ANN. RATE
B I L . DOL.
1/82
-2.6 1485.8
-2.4 1489.3 11/82
-2.6 1485.7 [11/82
0
-3.0
1480.7
1
2
3
-2.3
-0.0
1.9
1490.1
1/8 3
1525.1 11/83
1554.4 EII/83
IV/82
ORTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT ORTR.
AND
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
DATA YEAR
TROUGH IV/8 2
•1575
SERIES 50
ANN. RATE
B I L . DOL.
1485.8
0.6
0.3
-J
-12
-6
0
+6
#1475
0. T 1480.7
• 1425
0.6
3.0
5.0
-5
1/82
IV/82
1554.4 111/83
+12 -1-18
NOTE: For em explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of the July 1983 Issue.
108
-J
1490.1
1/83
1525.1 11/83
Months from reference troughs
• 1525
1489.3 11/82
1485.7 111/82
-12
Months from specific troughs
0
• 1475
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued
Deviations
from
reference
peaks
910. Composite index of 12 leading
indicators
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
m
FWcent
- . +20
•170
- +15
• 160
- +10
-
+5
A
-5
•130
-
V1
-10
15
•120
J -20
-2.4
139.4
11/82
1
2
3
4
-1.4
140.9
145.2
147.7
150.6
12/82
1/83
2/83
3/8 3
5
6
7
8
6.8
8.0
10.0
10.7
152.6
154.4
157.2
158.2
4/8 3
5/83
6/83
7/83
9
10
11.1
12.1
158.7
160.2
8/8 3
9/83
a
fVrcant
DEVIMONTHS
FROM A T I O N S CURRENT MONTH
FROM ACTUAL
AND
SPEC.
TROUGH
3/82
DATA YEAR
Median
X
f
-
+5
• 155
J f
8
3.5
139.4
11/82
9
10
11
12
4.6
7.8
9.7
11.8
140.9
145.2
147.7
150.6
12/8 2
1/83
2/83
3/8 3
13
14
15
16
13.3
14.6
16.7
17,4
152.6
154.4
157.2
158.2
4/83
5/83
6/83 I
7/83
17
18
17.8
18.9
158.7
160.2
8/83
9/83
O
-10.1
132.7
11/82
1
2
3
4
-10.2
-9.0
-9,6
-8.8
132.6
134.3
133.5
134.6
12/82
1/83
2/83
3/8 3
5
6
7
8
-8.1
-6.6
-5.3
-4.7
135.6
137.9
139.8
140.7
4/8 3
5/83
6/83
7/8 3
9
10
-4.9
-3.3
140.4
142.7
8/83
9/83
£y
-5
• 135
10
-1-15
-12
-8
0
+6
• 125
cycle
PWcont
1
n
Jl
•170
- +25
\
v\
\s
Median
•
165
- +20
LX.
• 160
iff
/ it
IJ Sf
Sr
/w
1MI\
Si
S I a?
10/70
\
\
\
I
\
- +15
•155
•150
- +10
•145
Is JI
-
U
+5
•
-1 o
140
•135
Ii
a
Rwe.nt
"1+20
SERIES5 9 2 0
] 967=100
0.1
132.7
11/82
O
0. T
132.6
12/82
1
2
3
4
1.3
0.7
1.5
2.3
134.3
133.5
134.6
135.6
1/8 3
2/83
3/83
4/83
5
6
7
8
4.0
5.4
6.1
5.9
137.9
139.8
140.7
140.4
5/83
6/83
7/8 3
8/83
9
7.6
142.7
9/8 3
+12 +18
Months from reference troughs
• 155
\
MONTHS
DEVIFROM A T I O N S CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
12/82
DATA YEAR
145
current
9*0. Composite ir
indicators [CCCl
•-I
m
-
1
Actual
data
for
-I +30
DEVIMONTHS
FROM A T I O N S CURRENT MONTH
FROM
ACTUAL
AND
REF.
TROUGH
DATA YEAR
7/81
0
•
[7 i l l
a
SERIES» 9 1 0
] 967=100
- i +10
1970
1.6
3.4
5.4
SERIES 920
1967=100
920. Composite ndex of 4 coincident
indicators
indicators
L
0
Deviations
front
specific
troughs
910. Composite index of 12 leading
SERIES! 9 1 0
: 967=100
• 150
• 140
-
DEVIMONTHS
FROM A T I O N S CURRENT MONTH
AND
REP.
FROM ACTUAL
TROUGH
DATA YEAR
7/81
I
Median
- +15
• 150
JT\
\ * Jl
\*
\ \
\
\
- +10
n/ rJ
-
+5
J
0
iff
12/82A11
WIlH
r
...1
12
Months f
+8
• 140
• 135
1.....I.....I.....1
- 6
• 145
+12
1.....
+18
specific troughs
NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of the July 1983 issue.
109
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Scurcesof Series." following this index)
Current issue
Series <Page numbers)
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(*)
2
604
16
56
61
92
8/81
1/83
18
64
61
970
58
974
975
971
976
978
977
972
973
24
38
22
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
38
67
76
65
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
76
6/82
6/82
12/82
5/83
5/83
5/83
5/83
5/83
5/83
5/83
5/83
34
34
31
48
48
48
48
49
48
48
48
616
55
56
22
92
65
1/83
8/83
64
50
A
Accession rate, manufacturing
Agrteulbral products, exports
Anticipations mid intentions
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Consjmer sentiment, index
Empbyee:;, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
New ardeis. manufacturing, Dl ,..
Prices, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, retail trade, Dl
Prices, wholesale trade, Dl
,
Prodis, nunufaetunng and trade, 01
Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Automobiles
Imports ol automobiles and parts
Personal consumption expenditures
B
Balance of payments—See International transactions.
Bank loans—See Business Loans.
Bank rates-See Interest rates.
Bank reserve:;
free leser/es
Memter bunk borrowing from the Federal Reserve
Bonds—See Interest rates.
Borrowirg—See Credit.
Budget—See Government.
Building- See Construction,
Building aermits. new private housing..
,
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment. 01
Business failures, current liabilities
Business forrration. index...
„
Business mco'porations
„
Business inveilories—See Inventories.
Business loan;
Loans outstanding, constant dollars,.,..
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Business saving
C
Canada--See International comparisons,
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing (BEA)
Manufacturing (FRB)
,
Materials
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog..
Newly appnvcd
,,
Newly approved. Dl...;
,
Capital ecuiprrent. producer price index...Capital Mwestnent—See Investment, capital.
Capital m/estnient commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corwrate. constant dollars
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian laior farce- -See also Employment.
Employmen1
Employment as percent ol population
Total Ijibor 'orce
.,.
Unempoyed
,,,,
,
Coincidem indicators, four
Compose ndex
,.,
Composite ndex. rate of change
Oiflusicn index
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial anj industrial buildings, contracts awarded
Commercul anj industrial loans
Loans ttulst.uiding. constant dollars........
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Compensation—See also Income.
Compensate, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compersaticn of employees. NIPA
Compersaticn of employees, percent of
national income
Compersaticn. real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Earnings, avmage hourly, production workers.
private nonlarm economy
Earning!*. re« I average hourly, production workers.
private nonlarm economy
:
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life ol contract
Wages end sVaries m mining, manufacturing.
and constriction
Composite mtoes
Coincident indicators
Four comtiders. index
.
Four coinoders, rate of change
Ratio to legging indicator index .
....
Lagging indicators
Six laggen,, index ........, .
Six laggen,. rate ol change
Leading indicators
Capitjil investment commitments
Inventory nvestment and purchasing
,...
Marginal employment adjustments
Money anc financial Hows
See notes at enc of index.
110
Current issue
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Series (page numbers?
number Charts Tables
Profitability
Twelve leaders, index
Twelve leaders, rate of change
916
910
910c
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and
industrial buildings
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales
Gross private domestic fixed investment
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Nonresidential, total, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Residential, total, constant dollars
Housing starts
Consumer finished goods, producer price index
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
,
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
93
94
33
33
72
72
6/83
6/83
29
76
61
970
14
12
13
13,25
24
24
38
33
12,23
23
67
67
67
76
72
65
65
6/83
12/82
6/82
6/82
5/83
2/83
5/83
101
72
112
295
15,35
35
32
46
73
73
72
82
7/83
7/83
7/83
11/82
45
45
35
24
34
34
44
32
32
43
43
37
83
82
84
20
20
20
64
64
64
12/82
8/83
8/83
25
25
25
97
11
965
333
24
24
37
48
66
66
75
86
1/83
1/83
1/83
4/83
33
33
33
914
35
34
11
29
29
60
70
70
2/83
8/83
8/83
15
37
37
442
90
441
37
51
18
51
18.51
89
62
89
62,89
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
20
20
20
20
920
920c
951
940
9
10
39
36
11
23
60
74'
60
66
2/83
5/83
2/83
2/83
3/82
"is
101
72
112
15.35
35
32
73
73
72
7/83
7/83
7/83
43
43
345
280
49
45
87
82
11/82
10/82
56
56
15
15
32
64
30.47
70.83
9/83
56
346
49
88
11/82
56
340
49
87
9/83
15
341
348
349
49
50
50
87
88
88
9/83
8/81
8/81
15
62
62
53
19
63
8/83
22
920
920c
940
10
39
11
60
2/83
5/83
2/83
15
930
930c
10
39
60
2/83
5/83
15
914
915
913
917
11
11
11
11
60
60
60
60
2/83
2/83
2/83
2/83
15
15
15
15
'60'
' is
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Consumer sentiment, index
60
60
2/83
2/83
5/83
15
15
29
13,25
67
6/83
35
9
69
23
24
66
67
3/82
9/83
32
28
248
87
86
249
89
28
334
8
75
4?
25
25
47
25
25
48
12,21
22
83
67
67
83
67
67
86
64
65
10/82
8/83
8/83
10/82
8/83
6/83
4/83
6/83
12/82
51
51
51
51
51
35
60
26
24
73
4/83
4/83
4/83
2/82
43
43
43
45
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Credit outstanding, percent change
Mortgage debt, net change
Crude and intermediate materials, change in
producer prices
Crude materials, producer price index
35
113
32
72
95
39
15,35
33
73
72
320
322
49
49
84,95
84
65
3/83
3/83
12/82
59
59
31
525
53
90
4/83
64
20
12,23
66
9/83
32
10
116
23
34
66
73
9/83
8/83
32
46
58
Consumption expenditures—See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contract awards, Defense Department
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits—See Profits.
Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Borrowing, total private
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Series
description
11
10
39
66
Net change
Historical
data
(issue date)
22
110
32
72
11/82
101
72
112
15,35
35
32
73
73
72
7/83
7/83
7/83
66
113
95
39
Ill
33
35
32
15,35
33
13,32
32
73
72
73
72
72
71
4/83
4/83
4/83
2/82
7/83
3/82
'«
98
331
28
48
69
85
2/83
4/83
60
43
43
43
43
43
45
D
Debt-See Credit.
Defense and space equipment, output
Defense Department
Gross obligations incurred
Gross unpaid obligations
Net outlays
Personnel, civilian
Personnel, military
Prime contract awards
Defense products
Inventories, manufacturers'
New orders, manufacturers'
Shipments, manufacturers'
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products industries, employment
Defense purchases, goods and services, NIPA
Defense purchases, percent of GNP
Deficit—See Government.
Deflators—See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Deliveries, vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components
New orders, manufacturing
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, manufacturing and trade
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Raw industrials, spot market prices, components
Sales, manufacturing and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing
Selling prices, retail trade
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Workweek, manufacturing production workers
Workweek, manufacturing production workers,
components
Disposable personal income—See income.
„,.
557
54
91
7/82
517
543
580
578
577
525
53
53
54
55
55
53
90
90
91
91
91
90
7/82
4/83
7/83
12/82
12/82
4/83
559
548
588
561
570
564
565
54
53
54
54
55
55
55
91
90
91
91
91
91
91
6/83
6/83
6/83
6/83
7/83
11/82
11/82
39
32
33
12,21
72
64
2/82
5/83
45
28
970
965
951
974
963
966
38
37
36
38
36
37
6/82
1/83
2/83
5/83
7/83
7/82
34
33
15
48
15
24
962
975
952
950
964
36
38
36
36
37
5/83
5/83
2/83
2/83
6/83
18
48
15
15
26
971
960
972
967
38
37
38
37
5/83
12/82
5/83
6/83
48
973
976
978
977
968
961
38
38
38
38
37
36
76
75
74
76
74
75
78
74
76
74
74
75
77
76
75
76
75
79
76
76
76
76
75
74
5/83
5/83
5/83
5/83
6/83
7/83
48
48
49
48
36
15
77
64
26
*53
48
36
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series." following this index)
E
Earnings-See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
Civilian labor force, total
Defense Department personnel, civilian
Defense Department personnel, military
Employee-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Rate of change
Total
.
Employees in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
. .
Employees, manufacturing and trade. Dl
.
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
.
...
Employees on private nonagncullural payrolls. Dl
Employment in defense products industries
.
Employment, ratio to population
Employment, total civilian . . .
...
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims. State unemployment insurance
Initial claims. State unemployment insurance, Dl
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Overtime hours, manufacturing production workers
Participation rate, both sexes, 16-19 years old
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers tor economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Quit rate, manufacturing.. ..
Unemployed, both sexes, 1619 years old
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment, total civilian
Workweek, manufacturing production workers
Workweek, manufacturing production workers,
components
Workweek, manufacturing production workers, Dl
Equipment—See Investment, capital.
Exports—See International transactions.
F
Federal funds rate
Federal Government—See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowing from
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, Cl
Fixed investment—See Investment, capital.
Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic
business product
Food—See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade—See International transactions.
France—See International comparisons.
Free reserves
G
Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget, NIPA
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense
National defense, percent of GNP
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
.,
Total, current dollars
Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted
price index
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply Ml
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic investment—See Investment, capital.
H
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Hours of production workers, manufacturing
Series
number Charts
Historical
Tables
data
(issue date)
2
441
578
577
16
51
55
55
61
89
91
91
8/81
3/83
12/82
12/82
48c
48
39
17
ei"
10/83
10/83
40
974
41
963
570
90
442
46
60
5
962
3
913
21
453
452
451
448
42
4
446
445
447
444
91
45
43
37
1
17
38
14,17
36
55
18
51
17
17
12,16
36
16
11
16
51
51
51
51
17
16
51
51
51
51
15,18
18
18
18
18.51
12.16
62
76
62
74
91
62
89
61
61
61
74
61
60
61
89
89
89
89
62
61
89
89
89
89
62
62
62
62
62.89
61
7/83
5/83
7/83
7/83
7/83
3/83
3/83
7/82
3/83
5/83
5/83
8/81
2/83
7/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
8/81
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
7/83
961
36
77
74
7/83
44
119
94
213
917
33
40
11
72
80
60
311
Series
description
<*)
18
20
15
15
48
15
15
20
20
19
19
18
18
18
15
15
20
20
20
20
20
18
20
20
20
20
20
20
18
20
20
15
i5
10/83
46
6/83
10/83
2/83
45
49
15
8/83
93
6/83
49
8/83
502
501
500
512
511
510
298
52
52
52
52
52
52
46
90
90
90
90
90
90
83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
11/82
62
62
62
62
62
62
58
263
262
265
564
565
267
266
268
261
260
43
43
47
55
55
43
43
47
43
43
81
81
83
91
91
81
81
83
81
81
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
53
53
53
53
53"
53
53
53
53
311
68
48
30
84
70
8/83
8/83
58
39
50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107
49
310
217
19,40
63,80
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
9/83
8/83
8/83
10/83
49
49
49
49
49
49
40
25
49
49
39
40
31
20
48
40
71
63
84
80
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number Charts Tables
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Average weekly overtime
Average workweek
Average workweek, components
Average workweek, Dl
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local building permits
Residential GPDI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI. percent of GNP
21
1
961
28
25
29 13,25
89
25
249
47
I
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Imports—See International transactions.
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars.
Disposable personal income, current d o l l a r s . . .
Disposable personal income, per capita,
constant dollars.
.
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy .
Earnings, real average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy..,
Income on foreign investments in the United States ..
Income on U.S. investments abroad
lnterest.net.
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Personal income, less transfer payments, constant dollars
Rate of change.
Total
Personal income, ratio to money supply M2
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent
|
of national income
[
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income,.
I
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
"
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
,,
and construction
I
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial commodities, producer price index
Industrial production—See also International comparisons. I
h
Business equipment
Consumer goods
....
,
Durable manufactures
i
Nondurable manufactures
'
Total
,•
Total, components.
Total, Dl
l
Total, rate of change
|
Industrials, raw, spot market prices
Components
,
Diffusion index
I
Spot market index
|
Installment credit-See Credit.
Insured unemployment
1
Average weekly initial claims
I
Average weekly initial claims, Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest, net
t
Interest, net, percent of national income
.'
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
,
Corporate bond yields.
Federal funds rate
|.
Mortgage yields, secondary market..
,
Municipal bond yields. ..
\
Prime rate charged by banks
|.
Treasury bill rate
,
Treasury bond yields
Intermediate materials, producer price index
1.
International comparisons
I
Consumer prices
Canada
,>
France
I.
Italy
i.
Japan
:
t.
United Kingdom
J
United States
)..
West Germany
Industrial production
Canada
France
1
I
Italy
46
60
17
17
61
61
7/82
3/83
19
19
16
61
12,16 61
77
36
74
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States
(..
!!..
,.
West Germany
L
67
67
67
83
310
48
345
280
49
45
87
82
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
<*)
7/83
7/83
7/83
6/83
6/83
8/83
10/82
35
35
51
51
8/83
11/82
10/82
56
56
64
30,47
70,83
9/83
56
346
95
286
49
15,35
45
88
73
82
11/82
4/83
10/82
56
43
37
287
225
224
47
40
40
83
80
80
10/82
10/83
10/83
37
22
22
227
40
80
10/83
22
340
49
87
9/83
15
341
652
651
288
289
220
52
223
49
57
57
45
47
45
19
40
87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63
9/83
8/83
8/83
10/82
10/82
10/83
8/83
8/83
15
65
65
57
57
55
22
22
51c
51
108
282
39
14,19
31
45
'63*
71
82
8/83
8/83
4/83
10/82
22
40
56
283
284
47
45
83
82
10/82
10/82
56
57
285
348
349
47
50
50
83
88
88
10/82
8/81
8/81
57
62
62
53
13
335
19
23
48
63
65
85
8/83
5/83
6/82
22
32
24
67
76
22
65
75
20
63
73
20
63
74
47 14,20,58 63,94
78
37
75
966
39
47c
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
24
24
24
24
24
7/82
12/82
24
967
23
'37"
28
79
75
69
6/83
6/83
36
36
5
962
45
288
289
12.16
36
18
45
47
61
74
62
82
83
5/83
5/83
3/83
10/82
10/82
18
18
18
57
57
67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
332
35
34
34
34
34
35
34
34
48
73
73
72
73
73
73
72
73
86
12/82
8/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
7/83
8/83
8/83
4/83
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
46
60
96
96
95
95
84,95
95
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
4/82
3/83
4/82
68
68
69
69
68
59
68
94
58
723
58
94
726
58
94
727
58
94
728
58
94
721
58
94
722
47 14.20,58 63,94
58
94
725
1/83
1/83
1/83
1/83
1/83
1/83
12/82
1/83
66
66
66
66
66
66
24
66
733
736
737
738
732
320
735
95
49'
See notes at end of index.
111
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources ot Series." following this index)
Stock prices
Canada.
Francti
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
,
United States
West (lermany
Internationa transactions
Balance tn goods and services
Balance en merchandise trade
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Exports, merchandise, total excluding military aid
Exports ol domestic agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, constant dollars, NIPA
Exports ol goods and services, current dollars. NIPA...
Exports ol goods and services, excluding military
Exports ot nonelectrical machinery
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Imports, merchandise, total
Imports ol automobiles and parts
Imports o : goods and services, constant dollars, NIPA
Imports o' goods and services, current dollars, NIPA ..
Imports o' goods and services, total
Imports o petroleum and products
Income or foreign investments in the United States ...
Income or U.S. investments abroad
Net cxpors of goods and services,
constant dollars. NIPA
Net exports of goods and services,
current collars. NIPA
,
Net exports of goods and services, percent of GNP
Inventores
Business nventories, change, constant dollars, NIPA ..
Business inventories, change, current dollars, NIPA
Business nventories. change, percent of GNP
Defense pioducts. manufacturers'
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Invert :orie:. on hand and on order, net change
Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade....
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade, current dollars, change
MamracUring and trade, Dl
Materials end supplies on hand and on order.
manufsctjring
Mater als end supplies on hand and on order.
mamilactjring, change
,
Investment, cipital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital apfropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Constiucticn contracts, commercial and industrial
Constiucticn expenditures, business, plus machinery
and nquipment sales...,.
Gross private domestic investment
Business, inventories, change—See Inventories.
Fixtid investment, constant dollars
Fixdd investment, current dollars
Nor resit ential. constant dollars
Norresicential, percent of GNP
Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential,
constant dollars
Resdenlal, constant dollars
Res dental, percent ot GNP
Structures, nonresidential, constant dollars
Totnl. constant dollars
Totiil, eurrent dollars
New oiders capital goods, nondefense,
constant dollars
,
New oiders capital goods, nondetense,
current dollars
Plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new
Business expenditures, new. Dl
Conrad;; and orders, constant dollars
Contract!! and orders, current dollars
Investment, foieign
Income on foreign investments in the United States ...
Income on U.S. investments abroad.,
Italy—See International comparisons.
Series
number
Current issue
^page numbers)
Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
C)
743
746
747
748
742
19
745
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
96
96
96
96
96
96
96
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
12/82
70
70
70
70
70
36
70
667
622
618
602
604
256
252
668
606
620
612
616
257
253
669
614
652
651
57
57
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
57
56
56
44
44
57
56
57
57
93
93
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
93
92
92
82
82
93
92
93
93
8/83
8/83
8/83
5/82
1/83
10/82
10/82
8/83
1/83
8/83
5/82
1/83
10/82
10/82
8/83
1/83
8/83
8/83
65
65
65
64
64
54
54
65
64
65
64
64
54
54
65
64
65
255
44
250
251
44
47
82
83
10/82
10/82
54
54
30
245
247
559
65
26,42
42
47
54
27
13.26
15.27
11
27
27
26
38
68,81
81
83
91
68
68
68
60
68
68
68
76
8/83
10/82
10/82
6/83
6/83
9/83
9/83
2/83
9/83
9/83
9/83
5/83
51
51
51
'28'
28
28
15
28
28
28
48
27
68
S
915
70
71
31
975
10/82
6/83
6/83
97
11
965
914
9
24
24
37
11
23
66
66
75
60
66
1/83
1/83
1/83
2/83
3/82
33
33
33
15
32
69
24
67
9/83
28
243
242
86
248
42
42
25
47
81
81
67
83
10/82
10/83
8/83
10/82
51
51
51
51
88
89
249
87
241
240
25
25
47
25
42
42
67
67
83
67
81
81
8/83
8/83
10/82
8/83
10/83
10/83
51
51
51
51
51
51
9/83
9/83
61
970
20
10
24
38
12.23
23
67
76
66
66
6/82
6/82
9/83
9/83
34
34
32
32
652
651
57
57
93
93
8/83
8/83
65
65
Japan—Ste International comparisons.
Labor cos! per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Actual data
Actual data is percent of trend
Labor cost per unit of output, private business sector..
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Labor forej-See Employment.
Lagging indicators, six
Composite irdex
„
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion indix
Layoff rate, manufacturing
leading indicators, twelve
Compos te index
Compos te index, rate ot change
See notes at em) ot index,
112
68
30
70
8/83
39
62
62
63
26
30
15
30
29
70
70
70
70
2/83
2/83
9/83
9/83
39
930
930c
952
3
10
39
36
16
60
2/83
5/83
2/83
8/81
910
910c
10
39
60
74'
61
2/83
5/83
•39
15
'1i8s
15
Curfent
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
liquid assets, change in total
loans-See Credit.
Series
number
950
14
104
Charts
'ssue
>
Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(•)
36
33
31
74
72
71
2/83
5/83
4/83
15
44
40
( p a g e numbcfS
M
Man-hours—See Employment.
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing, change
Materials, new orders for consumer goods amt
Materials prices—See Price indexes.
Materials, rate of capacity utilization
Merchandise trade-See International transactions.
Military-See Defense.
Money and financial flows. Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total
Money supply M l , constant dollars
Money supply Ml, percent changes
Money supply M2, constant dollars
Money supply M2, percent changes
Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortgage yieWs, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
913
11
60
2/83
15
78
27
68
6/83
28
38
8
26
12,21
68
64
6/83
6/83
28
26
84
20
64
8/83
917
11
60
2/83
104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117
31
31
31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
73
73
4/83
4/83
4/83
4/83
4/83
9/83
4/83
3/82
10/83
10/83
40
40
40
40
40
40
40
42
46
46
27
24
8
23
23
12,21
66
66
64
9/83
9/83
6/83
26
26
26
20
12,23
66
9/83
32
10
548
7
6
23
53
21
21
9/83
6/83
6/83
6/83
32
26
26
26
6/83
5/83
'26
48
N
National defense-See Defense.
National Government—See Government
National income—See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense,
constant dollars
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars.
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment.
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment.
current dollars
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars
Durable goods industries, current dollars
Components
.
Diffusion index
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Presidential fixed investment, GPDI
Producers' durabte equipment, constant dollars
Structures, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, percent of GNP
964
971
37
38
66
90
64
64
7
75
76
88
87
86
248
25
25
25
47
67
67
67
83
8/83
8/83
8/83
10/82
51
51
51
51
517
543
721
53
53
58
90
90
94
7/82
4/83
1/83
'66
580
54
91
7/83
557
49
54
20
91
63
7/82
8/83
62
62
358
370
83
82
84
21
30
15
50
50
20
20
20
16
70
70
88
88
64
64
64
61
2/83
2/83
12/82
11/82
12/82
8/83
8/83
7/83
39
453
452
451
51
51
51
89
89
89
3/83
3/83
3/83
20
20
20
55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235
22
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47
65
80
80
81
81
81
81
80
80
83
8/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
10/83
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
50
292
293
614
46
46
56
82
83
92
11/82
11/82
1/83
58
58
64
61
970
20
10
90
24
38
12,23
23
18
67'
76
66
66
62
6/82
6/82
9/83
9/83
3/83
34
34
32
32
20
.
7
0
Obligations incurred, Defense Department
Obligations unpaid, Defense Department
OECO, European countries, industrial production
Orders-See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Outlays, Defense Department
Output—See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Defense and space equipment, output
Goods output, constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Per hour, private business sector
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (BEA)
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing (FRB)
Ratio to capacity, materials
Overtime hours, manufacturing production workers
.
.
*25
61
61
25
25
25
15
P
Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes, 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durabte goods, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income—See Income.
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and products, imports
Plant and equipment—See also Investment, capital.
Business expenditures, new
Business expenditures, new, Dl
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Population, civilian employment as percent of
.,.,.
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Price indexes
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Deflators, NIPA
Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business
Producer prices
All commodities
.
.
.
Capital equipment
...
. .
Crude materials
Finished consumer goods.
. ,.
Industrial commodities
Intermediate materials .
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components . . .
Diffusion index
. .
Spot market index
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices .
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Stock prices—See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business.
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl
Retail trade, Dl .
.
.
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime contract awards, Defense Department.
. .
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer prices—See Price indexes.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI
Production—See Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Productivity
Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
Output per hour, private business sector
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate profits after taxes
Constant dollars
Current dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars. .
Corporate profits, total
With IVA and CCAdj
With IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income
Manufacturing and trade, Dl. . .
...
Manufacturing, Dl
Per dollar of sales, m a n u f a c t u r i n g . . . .
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate
domestic income
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of
national income
Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables
Series
description
3/83
3/83
8/83
8/83
9/83
59
59
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Current issue
Series (page numbers)
number Charts Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(*)
S
320
322
49
49
84,95
311
310
26
48
48
29
330
333
331
334
335
332
98
48
48
48
48
48
48
28
85
86
85
86
85
86
69
5/82
4/83
4/83
4/83
6/82
4/83
2/83
59
60
60
60
967
23
37
28
79
75
69
6/83
6/83
36
36
98
99
28
13,28
69
69
2/83
2/83
19
968
26
13,28
37
29
69
75
70
7/82
6/83
9/83
976
978
977
525
109
38
38
38
53
35
76
76
76
90
73
5/83
5/83
5/83
4/83
7/83
58
49
36
36
' 48
49
48
64
46
8/83
213
40
69
57
56
973
77
59
54
24
14,22
22
38
15,27
22
22
67
65
65
76
68
65
65
9/83
9/83
9/83
5/83
9/83
9/83
9/83
28
28
28
48
28
31
31
295
298
290
292
293
46
46
46
46
46
82
83
82
82
83
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
11/82
37
58
58
58
58
98
99
588
28
13,28
54
69
69
91
2/83
2/83
6/83
967
23
'37'
28
79
75
69
6/83
6/83
36
36
19
968
78
13,28
37
27
69
75
68
7/82
6/83
6/83
36
36
28
38
26
114
115
34
34
72
73
8/83
8/83
46
46
91
60
5
962
3
15,18
17
12,16
36
16
62
61
61
74
61
3/83
3/83
5/83
5/83
8/81
20
19
18
18
18
446
445
447
444
37
4
51
51
51
51
18,51
16
89
89
89
89
62,89
61
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
3/83
8/81
20
20
20
20
20
18
44
45
43
18
18
18
62
62
62
3/83
3/83
3/83
20
18
20
561
96
25
54
21
21
91
64
64
6/83
6/83
6/83
26
26
Velocity of money
GNP to money supply M l , ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio.
Vendor performance, slower deliveries
107
108
32
31
31
12,21
71
71
64
9/83
4/83
5/83
40
40
28
Wages and salaries—See Compensation.
West Germany—See International comparisons.
Wholesale (producer) prices—See Price indexes.
Workweek of manufacturing production workers
Average workweek
Components
Diffusion index
1
12,16
15
*36"
61
77
74
7/83
961
7/83
"is"
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order. ...
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on
order, change
Surplus—See Government.
61
61
15
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
69
69
69
69
8/83
8/83
8/83
8/83
37
37
37
37
45
-47
38
37
29
11
29
82
83
76
75
70
60
69
10/82
10/82
5/83
12/82
5/83
2/83
8/83
37
37
48
"38'
15
37
29
45
70
82
8/83
10/82
37
56
Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims for unemployment insurance .
Initial claims for unemployment insurance, D l .
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Number unemployed, civilian labor force
Both sexes, 16-19 years of age. .
Females 20 years and over,
Full-time workers....
Males 20 years and over.
. ..
Total unemployed....
Quit rate, manufacturing,
Unemployment rates
50
50
11
18
16
28
28
29
29
286
287
972
960
15
916
22
81
282
283
Salaries—See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl
Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving, private and government...
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Selling prices—See Prices, selling
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change.
Shipments of defense products
Spot market prices, raw industrials
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
State and local government—See Government.
Stock prices—See also International comparisons.
12/82
11/82
2/83
358
370
916
47
15 weeks and over..
Insured unemployment
Total
10/82
Quit rate, manufacturing
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Reserves, free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars, GPDI....
Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP
Residential structures—See Housing.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Historical
data
(issue date)
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change
United Kingdom—See International comparisons.
8/81
967
23
284
37
28
45
79
75
69
82
6/83
6/83
10/82
36
36
57
285
93
89
249
47
33
25
47
83
72
67
83
10/82
6/83
8/83
10/82
57
45
51
51
59
54
22
22
65
65
9/83
9/83
31
31
10/83
6/83
NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjIjustment; NIPA, national income and product accounts.
* The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1977) on which the series description appears.
113
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this report
in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect relationships or order among the
series. "M" following a series title indicates monthly data;
"Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period
except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ"
(end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are
referred to by number:
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau )f the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4-Board of Governors of
the rednral Reserve System.
Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(23,66)
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current
dollars (M).-Source 2 and McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,66)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12. Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(12,23,65)
Following the source for each series is an indication of the
page;; oi which that series appears. The "Series Finding
Guidii" JISO lists chart and table page numbers for each
series.
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Brad street, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
(23,65)
I-A. Composite Indexes
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.
(33,72)
910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes
series 1, 5( 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99,106, 111)
(M).-Source 1
(10,39,60)
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all
manufacturing corporations (Q).-Federal Trade Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(29,70)
913. Composite index of marginal employment adjustments
{includes series 1, 2, 3, 5) (M)-Source 1 (11,60)
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies ( M ) . American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National
Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and
Urban Development, Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(32,71)
34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars (Q).*~
Source 1
(29,70)
35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(29,70)
36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order In 1972
dollars (smoothed) (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3(13,26,68)
37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,51,62,89)
38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and
on order, manufacturing (M).-Source 2
(26,68)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over (EOM).—American Bankers
Association
(33,72)
40. Number of employees in nonagricultural goodsproducing industries-mining, manufacturing, and
construction (M).-Source 3
(17,62)
41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment survey (M).-Source 3
(14,17,62)
914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M)-Source 1 (11,60)
16. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(28,69)
915. Composite index of inventory investment and
purchasing (includes series 8,32, 36, 99) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)
916. Composite Index of profitability (Includes series 19,26,
80) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)
18. Corporate profits after taxes in 1972 dollars (Q).~
Source 1
(28,69)
43. Unemployment rate, total (M)-Sources 2 and 3(18,62)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks ( M ) . Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)
44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and
over(M).-Source$2 and 3
(18,62)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972
dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, 3, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company
(12,23,66)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rite, State
programs (M).-U.S. Department of Labor, Employment
and Training Administration
(18,62)
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers,
manufacturing (M).-Source 3
(16,61)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers ( M ) . ~
The Conference Board
(17,61)
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic
income (Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
47. Index of industrial production, total (M).—Source
4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials
(M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981, this
series may not be reproduced without written permission
from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)
(28,69,79)
24. Value of manufacturer's new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in current dollars (M).—Source
2
(23,66)
48. Employee-hours in nonagricultural establishment*
(M).-Source 3
(17,39,61)
49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Q)-Source
1
(20,63)
917. Composite index of money and financial flows (includes
series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)
920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators
(includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
I
(10,39,60)
930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source
1
(103,60)
940. Itatii), coincident composite index (series 920) to lagKing composite index (series, 930) (M).-Source
I
(11,60)
1-B. Cyclical Indicators
1. Average workweek of production workers,
rnanjfaduring (M).-Source 3
(12,16,61,77)
2. Recession rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (16,61)
3. layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3
(16,61)
4. (|uit rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3
(16,61)
5. Avenge weekly initial claims for
insurance, State programs (M).-U.S.
Labor, Employment and Training
seasonal adjustment by Bureau
Analysis
unemployment
Department of
Administration;
of Economic
(12,16,61)
6. Valuu of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries, in current dollars (M).-Source 2(21,64,77)
7. Valui; of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries, in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and
3
(21,64)
8. Valun of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods
and materials in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and
3
(12,21,64)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by
114
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Source 2
(21,64)
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm
business sector (Q).-Sources 1 and 3
(29,70)
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(17,62)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
51. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 1972 dot*
lars (M).-Source 1
(14,19,39,63)
52. Personal income, total, in 1972 dollars (M).-Source
1
(19,63)
27. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense, in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources
1, 2, and 3
(23,66)
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and
3
(19,63)
54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).-Source
28. New private housing units started, total (M).-Source
2
(25,67)
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (M).-Source 2
(13,25,67)
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).-~
Source 1
(22,65)
30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(26,42,68,81)
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving
slower deliveries (M).-Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(12,21,64)
2
(22,65)
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M).~
Sources 1 and 2
(22,65)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars ( M ) . Sources 1, 2, and 3
(14,22,65)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M)4—University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
' (22,65)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1
2, and 3
(22,65)
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to number of persons unemployed (series 37)
(M).-Sources 1, 2, 3, and The Conference
Board
(17,61)
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
total (Q).-Source 1
(24,67)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (sum of wages, salaries,
and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of
industrial production, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1
and 4
(15,30,70)
86. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1(25,67)
87. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
structures, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67)
88. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
producers' durable equipment, in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(25,67)
119. Fede al funds rate (M).-Source 4
(34,72)
1-C. Diffusion Indexes
950. Diffu ;ion index of twelve leading indicator components
(M).^Source 1
(36,74)
951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).-Source 1
(36,74)
89. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
residential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67)
952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M), -Source 1
(36,74)
90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of
working age (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3
(18,62)
63. Index of unit labor cost, private business sector (Q).—
Source 3
(30,70)
91. Average (mean) duration of unemployment in weeks
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(15,18,62)
960. Diffision index of net profits, manufacturing—about
600 companies (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by
pern ission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
(35,75)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
93. Free reserves (member banks excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Source 4
(33,72)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Source
2
(27,68)
961. Diffision index of average workweek of production
workers, manufacturing—20 industries (M).-Sources 1
and 3
(36,74,77)
94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source 4
(33,72)
66. Consumer installment credit (EOM).-Source 4
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to ptrsonil income
(EOM).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)
(35,73)
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).-Source
4
(35,73)
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic
product (1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations—ratio
of current-dollar compensation of employees to real
gross corporate product (Q).-Source 1
(30,70)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M).—Source
2
(24,67)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars
(EOM).-Sources 1, 2, and 3
(27,68)
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value,
in current dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current
dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(35,73)
73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures
(M).-Source 4
(20,63)
74. Index of industrial production,
manufactures (M).-Source 4
nondurable
(20,63)
75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M).—
Source 4
(22,65)
76. Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source 4
(24,67)
77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories (series 70) to sales
(series 57), manufacturing and trade, total ( E O M ) Sources 1, 2, and 3
(15,27,68)
78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing (EOM).-Source 2
(27,68)
79. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
80. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(29,69)
81. Ratio of profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate
domestic income (Q).-Source 1
(29,70)
82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (Q).-Source
4
(20,64)
83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (EOQ).Source 1
(20,64)
84.^ Rate of capacity utilization, materials (Q).-Source
'4
(20,64)
85. Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4
(31,71)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM).-Source 2
(21,64)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (EOQ).-The Conference Board (24,66)
98. Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and
intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1 and 3 (28,69)
962. Diffision index of initial claims for unemployment
insuance, State programs—51 areas (M).—Source 1
and J.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training
Adm nistration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Eco omic Analysis
(36,74)
963. Diffision index of number of employees on private
non agricultural payrolls—172-186 industries (M).—
Soiree 3
(36,74)
(13,28,69)
964. Diff ision index of value of manufacturers' new orders,
dun ble goods industries— 34-35 industries ( M ) . Souces 1 and 2
(37,75,77)
965. Dif usion index of newly approved capital
app opriations, deflated—17 manufacturing industries
-The Conference Board
(37,75)
101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972
dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3r and 4
(15,35,73)
966. Diff jsion index of industrial production—24 industries
(37,75,78).
(M .-Sources 1 and 4
102. Change in money supply M2 (M) -Source 4 (31,71)
967. Diff sion index of spot market prices, raw industrials—
13 industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and
Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
(35,75,79)
99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed) (M).—
Sources 1, 3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) (M).-Sources
1 and 4
(31,71)
105. Money supply Ml in 1972 dollars (M) .-Sources 1,3,
and 4
(31,71)
106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (M)-Sources 1, 3,
and 4
(13,31,71)
107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml
(Q).-Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 ( M ) . Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).-Source
4
(35,73)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)
111. Change in credit outstanding (business and consumer
borrowing) (M).—Sources 1, 4, and Federal Home
Loan Bank Board
(13,32,72)
112. Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1 and 4
(32,72)
113. Net change in consumer installment credit (M).-Source
4
(32,72)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Source 4
(34,72)
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S.
Department of the Treasury
(34,73)
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).-Citibank and U.S. Department of the
Treasury
(34,73)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).-U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal
Housing Administration
(34,73)
968. Diffision index of stock prices,500 common stocks—
49- 2 industries (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation
(37,75)
970. Dif usion index of business expenditures for new plant
ant equipment, total—22 industries (Q).-Source
1
(38,76)
971. Dif usion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
60) businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
972. D fusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun &
Bndstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
no: be reproduced without written permission from the
so irce.)
(38,76)
973. Oil fusion index of net sales, manufacturing and trade—
ab>ut 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun &
Bndstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
no be reproduced without written permission from the
sojrce.)
(38,76)
974. Di fusion index of number of employees, manufacturing
and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Din & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
m iy not be reproduced without written permission from
this source.)
(38,76)
975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
0 n & Bradstreet Inc. (Used by permission. This series
m iy not be reproduced without written permission from
th source.)
(38,76)
976. D ffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(I sed by permission. This series may not be reproduced
wthout written permission from the source.) (38,76)
115
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade-about
4(30 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreetr Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
978. OH fusion index of selling prices, retail trade-about 400
businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun & Bradstreetr Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (38,76)
Il-A National Income and Product
30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, alt industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(26, 42, 68, 81)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).-Source
1
(40,80)
213. Final sales (series 50 minus series 30) in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(40,80)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars < Q ) Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
220. National income in current dollars (Q).-Source
1
(45,82)
223. Penonal income in current dollars (M).-Source
1
(40,63)
224. Distwsable personal income in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)
225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars ( Q ) Source 1
(40,80)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars
[Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
247. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, as a percent of gross national
product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
292. Personal saving (Q)-Source 1
248. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential,
as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)
295. Business saving—undistributed corporate profits plus
capital consumption allowances with Inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source
1
(46,82)
249. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential, as
a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source
1
(47,83)
250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).-Source
1
(44,82)
(46,82)
293. Personal saving rate—personal saving as a percent of
disposable personal income (Q).-Source 1 (46,83)
298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).—Source
1
(46,83)
Il-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
310. Implicit price deflator, gross national product ( Q ) . ~
Source 1
(48,84)
311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross business product
(Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
320. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).—Source
3
(49,59,84,95)
253. Imports of goods and services In current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(44,82)
322. Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Source 3(49,84)
255. Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).-Source
1
(44,82)
256. Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (44,82)
331. Index of producer prices, crude materials for further
processing (M).-Source 3
(48,85)
257. Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (44,82)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
1972 dollars (Q)-Source 1
(43,81)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services In
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
263. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
1972 dollars (Q),-Source 1
(43,81)
330. Indw of producer prices, all commodities (M).-Source
3
(48,85)
332. Index of producer prices, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).-Source 3
(48,86)
333. Index of producer prices, capital equipment ( M ) . ~
Source 3
(48,86)
334. Index of producer prices, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)
335. Index of producer prices, Industrial commodities ( M ) . Source 3
(48,85)
340. Index of average hourly earnings of production worker*,
private nonfarm economy—adjusted for overtime (In
manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts,
and seasonally (M).-Source 3
(49,87)
265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as
a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source
1
(47,83)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
267. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in 1972 dollars (Q)-Source 1
(43,81)
345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employm,
nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,87)
268. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product ( Q ) . Source 1
(47,83)
346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source
3
(49,88)
280. Compensation of employees (Q).-Source 1
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
282. Proprietors1 income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)
348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesfirst year average (mean) changes (Q).-Source
3
(50,88)
283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesaverage (mean) changes over life of contract (Q).—
Source 3
(50,88)
238. Fersonat consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in 1IJ72 dollars (Q).-$ource 1
(41 t 8i)
284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)
358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business
sector (Q),-Source 3
(49,88)
239. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,81)
285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)
370. Index of output per hour, all persons, private business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current
ilolhrs (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, In
currant dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
W:> dollars (Q).-Source 1
(41,80)
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total, as a percent
(if gross national product (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
240. Gross private domestic investment, total, in current dotliirs (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
241. Gros* private domestic Investment, total, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in
current dollars (Q)-Source 1
(42,81)
243. Gros: private domestic fixed investment, total, in 1972
dollars (Q).-$ource 1
(42,81)
245. Gross; private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1
(42,81)
116
(45,82)
286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).-Source 1
(47,82)
341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy—adjusted for
overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M).—Source
3
(49,87)
Il-C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
(45,82)
37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,51,62,89)
441. Total civilian labor force, labor force survey ( M ) . ~
Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
289. Net interest as a percent of national income ( Q ) . Source 1
(47,83)
442. Total civilian employment, labor force survey (M).—
Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
290. Gross saving—private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q).-Source 1
(46,82)
444. Number unemployed, mates 20 years and over, tabor
force survey (M),—Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national
income (Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
288. Net interest (Q)-Source 1
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE:
1983-420-993:207
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
47 United States, index of industrial production, total
(M).-Source 4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
570. Employment in defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(55,91)
320 United States, index of consumer prices, all items
(48,59,84,95)
(M).-Source 3
447. Number unemployed, full-time workers, labor force
survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
448. Number employed, part-time workers for economic
reasons, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and
3
(51,89)
451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years
and over (M).—Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
577. Defense Department personnel, military, active duty
(EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,
Washington Headquarters Services
(55,91)
578. Defense Department personnel, civilian, direct hire
employment (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,
Comptroller, Washington Headquarters Services(55,91)
453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19
years of age (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and
military assistance (M).-U.S. Department of Defense,
OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program and
Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(54,91)
Il-D. Government Activities
588. Value of manufacturers' shipments, defense products
(M).-Source 2
(54,91)
452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(51,89)
Il-E. U.S. International Transactions
501. Federal Government receipts; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).—
Source 2
(56,92)
502. Federal Government expenditures; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau 'of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
511. State and local government receipts; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
512. State and local government expenditures; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90)
517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred ( M ) . U.S. Department of Defense, OSD, Comptroller,
Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90)
525. Defense Department military prime contract awards for
work performed in the United States (M).-U.S.
Department of Oefense, OSD, Comptroller, Washington
Headquarters Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, OSD,
Comptroller, Directorate for Program and Financial
Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)
Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)
722 United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).—
Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)
723 Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Statistics
(58,94)
Canada (Ottawa)
725, West Germany, index of industrial production ( M ) . (58,94)
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
726 France, index of industrial production (M).—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)
727 Italy, index of industrial production (M).—Istituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(52,90)
510. State and local government surplus or deficit; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90)
72
728 Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of
International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)
732, United Kingdom, index of consumer prices ( M ) .
Department of Employment (London); percent changes
seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment ; b y Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
733. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
612. General imports, total (M).-Source 2
735, West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).—
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent changes
seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).-Source 1 (57,93)
651. Income on U.S. investments abroad (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)
(59,95)
736 France, index of consumer prices (M).-Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
737 Italy, index of consumer prices (M).—Istituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
738 Japan, index of consumer prices (M).—Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally
adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,95)
667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1(57,93)
742 United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).—Central
Statistical Office (London)
(59,96)
743 Canada, index of stock prices (M). Statistics Canada
(59,96)
(Ottawa)
(54,91)
668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
745 West Germany, index of stock prices (M).—Statistisches
(59,96)
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
559. Value of manufacturers' inventories, defense products
(EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
669. Imports of goods and services, total (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)
746 France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National de
la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
561. Value of manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
Il-F. International Comparisons
747 Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Banca d' Italia
(Rome)
(59,96)
548. Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products
( M ) . - Source 2
(53,90)
557. Output of defense and space equipment (M).— Source
4
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for
national defense (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
652. Income on foreign investments in the United States
(Q).-Source 1 .
(57,93)
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
(M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96)
(59,96)
748 japan, index of stock prices (M).—Bank of Japan
(Tokyo)
(59,96)
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