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BUSINESS
. DEPARTMENT OF'..COMMERCE
Bureau of the Census
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
John T. Connor, Secretary
His report was prepared in the Economic Research and Analysis Division under the direction of Julius
Shiskin, Chief. Technical staff and
thek responsibilities for the publication are—
Feliks Tamm-—Technical supervision and review,
Barry A. Becktnan—Specifications
for computer processing,
Betty F. Tunstall^-Colledion and
compilation of basic data.
The cooperation of various government and private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged,
The agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and
sources on the back cover of this
report*
Subscription price is $7 a year ($1.75
additional for foreign mailing). Single
issues are 60 cents.
Airmail delivery is available at an
additional charge. For information
about domestic or foreign air mail
delivery, write to the Superintendent
of Documents (address below), en*
closiog a copy of your address label.
Mak£ checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to
U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402, or to uty
U.S, Department of Commerce Field
Office,
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Howard C. Grieves, Deputy Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
PREFACE
This report brings together many of the available
economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation.
The presentation and classification of series follow the business indicators
approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning dates
are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER) which, in recent years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken as implying acceptance
or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle analysis. It is intended
only to supplement other reports of the Department of Commerce that
provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data according to their
usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle and the inclusion of special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons
that help in evaluating the current stage of the business cycle. In addition the movements of the series are shown against the background of the
expansions and contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads"
and "lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments
spotted.
About 90 principal series and over 300 components are included
in preparing the report. The exact number of series included for the total
and important classes of series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the basic data are available in published reports. A complete
list of series and the sources of data is shown on the back cover of this
report. Series are seasonally adjusted except those that do not appear
to contain seasonal movement.
The chief merits of this report are the speed with which the data
are collected, assembled, and published and the arrangement of the series
for business cycle studies. Publication is scheduled for around the 22d of
the month following the month of data.
October 7966
DATA THROUGH SEPTEMBER
Series ESI No. 66-10
New Features and Changes for This Issue
Computer Programs for Time Series Analysis
Punch Card File of Business Cycle Series
Introduction
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 and 2
,
_
r
iii
iv
iv
1
1
2
2
2
3
4
5
6
Delate
TABLE 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
CHART L Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
TABLE 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
8
10
24
TABLE
CHART
TABLE
TABLE
38
39
42
46
3. Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods _
2. Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
4. Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
5. Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components
ABOUT THE COVER—
Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and
shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general
business activity. The cover design illustrates this concept. The black vertical
bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually
fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle
curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period;
the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has
begun and rise after it ends..
CONTINUED
CHART 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles (See September issue)
TABLE 6. Comparisons From Reference Peak Levels and Reference Trough
Dates (See September issue)
TABLE 7. Comparisons From Reference Trough Levels and Reference
Trough Dates (See September issue)
Long Term Economic Growth, A Statistical Compendium
57
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the
United States: 1854 to 1961 (See September issue)
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected
Business Indicators (See September issue)
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related • Measures for Business
Cycle Series (See September issue)
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series (See September issue)
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles:
1920 to 1961 (See September issue)
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series (See September issue)
"Series Finding Guide
73
The cyclical comparisons section and appendixes A to F have been dropped from
this issue in order to present the paper, "Long Term Economic Growth, A Statistical
Compendium"
D A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.
Changes in this issue are as follows:
nrnxiu
1. Series 85 and 98 on money supply have been revised
by the source agency to reflect adjustments to benchmarks
for 1965, changes in seasonal factors from late 1962 to
date, and a special adjustment (beginning in 1959 and
affecting March and April movements) of the currency component to eliminate fluctuations associated with the
changing date of Easter. Further information on this
revision may be obtained from the Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System, Banking Section.
2. The series on total private borrowing (series 110)
has been revised by the source agency to reflect the
recent large volume of transactions in the corporate
sector and historical revisions in State and local obligations. Further information on this revision may be
obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System, Flow of Funds Section.
3. Series 111 on corporate gross savings has been
revised by the source agency to reflect additional.
information which has become available for financial
corporations. Farther information on this revision may
be obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System, Flow of Funds Section.
4. A paper, "Long Term Economic Growth, A Statistical
Compendium," which describes the new report, LONG TERM
ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1860-1965, is included in this issue.
The section on cyclical comparisons and the appendixes
have been omitted from this issue to make room for this
paper. These materials will be reinstated in the
November issue.
The November issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is
scheduled for release on November 23.
\j
3L
€!IMiy§ /^ira©P QO AByyiTOlGW ra©@ISMfl.A time series computer
program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and
irregular fluctuations and the relations among them. This program is
particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which take place
within a year.
The latest variant, X-ll, has greater generality and scope than any of the
earlier programs. It can adjust quarterly as well as monthly series and series
with negative and positive numbers as well as those with positive numbers
alone. The X-ll version measures and adjusts not only for seasonal variations, but also for trading-day variations Further, it computes many summary
and analytical measures of the behavior of each series. The program includes
various techniques, such as F tests and variance analysis, for use in extending
the scope of time series studies and is written in a simplified computer language—Fortran IV. The program deck can be purchased from the Census
Bureau at cost.
iy»l£S CYCLi KVIHOMIOTS.A monthly report for analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short span of years.
This report brings together several hundred monthly and quarterly "economic indicator" series for the analysis of short-term economic trends and
prospects. These series have been selected, tested, and evaluated, after half
a century of continuing research, as the most useful and reliable for this
purpose. The publication provides not only the basic data, but also various
charts and analytical tables to facilitate such studies. In addition, a time
series punch-card file, a diffusion index program, and a separate summarymeasures computer program are available for those who wish to carry on
further research in business cycle analysis.
TfiTO IC©W1©M€ ©^©WTO. An annual report for the study of
economic fluctuations over a long span of years.
This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy. It has been planned,
prepared, and published as a basic research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical
basis for a study of long-term economic trends It is a unique presentation
of the full range of factors required for an understanding'of our country's
economic development. Some of the statistical series go back to 1860.
Order forms for the reports, computer programs, and data are included at the
back of this issue.
IV
Students of economic conditions describe the business
cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion
and contraction in production, employment, income,
money flows, prices, and other economic processes.
The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but
not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway,
it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry,
from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is
reached. Even while expansion is widespread during
the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities
continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines
begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and
continue to spread even faster after the peak has been
passed. But some activities continue to expand during
the general contraction. Before long these expansions
become stronger and more widespread. When they
begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate
activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway.
This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic.
The causal relations among these various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion
eventually turns into recession and recession into expansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures
which relate to future rather than to current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
the formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various types of enonomic costs, such as labor costs,
interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments,
and holdings of inventories and of debts.
tivity. The series have been grouped and classified
by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or
"lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as
follows:
l>
NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually
reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate
economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these
series pertains to activities in the labor market,
another to orders and contracts, and so on,
f>
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series
that are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial
production, and retail sales.
O
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning
points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are
included in this report. Some of these series, such as
change in money supply, merchandise trade balance,
and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors
in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators
for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the
United States are presented.
The list of series covered and sources of the basic
data are shown on the back cover of this report. Series
numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Although this pattern has been characteristic of
American economic history, today many economists
do not consider it inevitable.
Intensive research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) over many years has provided
a list of those significant series that usually lead, those
that usually move with, and those that usually lag
behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic ac-
Data are shown in this report in three general categories,
as follows:
t>
Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2).—Data
are shown for business cycle indicators, additional
U.S. series with business cycle significance, and
industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for
making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
D>
Analytical Measures (chart 2 and tables 3 to 5).—
These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, determining the extent of current
changes in different parts of the economy, and
pointing to developments in particular industries
and places.
[>
Cyclical Patterns (chart 3 and tables 6 and 7).—
Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at
corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending
upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular
report, certain appendix materials are presented. These
materials include historical data, key information, and
adjustment factors.
The business cycle turning dates used in this report are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred.
Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been
dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over
this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the
time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are
disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the
time and contraction, 44 percent.
Adjustments for normal seasonal fluctuations are often
necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical trends
of a series. Such adjustments allow for periodic intrayear variations resulting chiefly from normal differences
in weather conditions during the year and from various institutional arrangements. Some series contain
considerable variation attributable to the number of
working or trading days in each month. An additional
adjustment is necessary in such cases to reduce this
variation. Variations due to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; how-
ever, there are some cases in which a separate holiday
adjustment is necessary for holidays with variable dates.
Such a case is retail sales of apparel which is affected
strongly by the date of Easter and, to a lesser degree, by
the dates of Labor Day and Thanksgiving.
In general, the seasonal adjustment process is designed to adjust for average weather conditions but
not for the dispersion about that average. Thus, some
seasonally adjusted series, such as housing starts, will
tend to be low in months of unusually bad weather and
high during unusually good weather. At the Bureau
of the Census, studies have been started on some series
to determine the effects of abnormal weather. Although it eventually may be possible, Census methods
do not at present make any adjustments for such
variations.
Most of the series contained in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form. Unadjusted data
are used only for those series which appear to have no
pattern of seasonal variation. (Unadjusted series are
identified in table 2.) In most cases, the seasonally
adjusted data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency; therefore, several different methods of seasonal adjustment are involved.
In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle
studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a
seasonally adjusted basis in this report. For these
series, seasonal adjustments have been developed by
either the NBER or the Census Bureau. The adjustment factors for these series, derived by Census Method
II, are shown in appendix D. Factors for series which
are the sums of seasonally adjusted components or
which are based on unpublished source data are nut
shown.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually
longer than a single month because month-to-month
changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but
shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change
from the same month a year ago), and is different for
different series (see appendix C for JMCD values and
method of computation).
MCD is, on average, the first span of months for
which the average change for the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so.
It is small for smooth series and large for irregular
series. The month-to-month differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally
adjusted values separated by the same MCD span;
thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month
moving average are commensurate with differences in
seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD
moving averages all have about the same degree of
smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of
highly irregular series, such as business failures and
Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data
for such smooth series as industrial production.
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all
series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an
indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted beginning
with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful
moving averages (such as the weighted 13-term Henderson curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a
smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and
troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a
reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually
larger than those computed from historical series and
shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a
fairly long period, one covering both expansions and
contractions. Since the pace of change varies from
phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will
not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which
to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery when
expansion has usually been rapid and too low during
the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance
has usually been small. This limitation should be borne
in mind when making use of this measure.1
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented—timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of
Change. These measures aid in forming a judgment of
the current changes compared to previous changes, the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also point to developments in parti;ular industries and places.
1
For a more complete description of MCD and its use in
itudying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators,
3eoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic
Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press:
1961),for FRASER
Digitized
Timing Distributions
Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful
in appraising the evidence for a prospective business
cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table
3). Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented
during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the
distribution of current highs, such distributions are
also shown for leading and coincident series as they
appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of
each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and
at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the leading and roughly
coincident business cycle indicators are scanned each
month. During a business cycle expansion, the date of
the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted
series—that is, series with negative conformity to the
business cycle—dates of low values are taken.) If the
values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date
is taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values may be disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly
for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and
highlight the current high values during the expansion.
The highs designated during the current cyclical phase
will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. (See
appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead.
Comparisons of the current timing distributions with
those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks
are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective
business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be made
in light of the fact that a contraction following a high
value reached several months ago may be the result
of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be
reached in some future month. In short, when the
percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both
the leading and roughly coincident series, this does
not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has
occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a
short reversal in the upward movement.
Diffusion Indexes
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of
groups of economic series. They express, for a given
aggregate series* the percent of the series components
which have risen over given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the
aggregate and they measure how widespread a business
change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all
components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often associated with
rapid growth and widespread declines with sharp reductions in aggregate activity.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February, February-March,
etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans,
depending upon the irregularity of the series. The
indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current"
but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9month indexes. (See chart 2,) Quarterly series are
compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and
4-quarter spans.
Recent research has shown that the longer-span
diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have
systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements may- be significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the
longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is
an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the
span; for example, 3 months in the case of a 6-month
diffusion index. However, the most recent figure for
a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest
available information on changes over that span. If a
significant reversal has taken place within that span,
the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presentation of both 1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes
provides an opportunity for the user to take advantage
of the best features of each in interpreting current
changes.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate
diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series,
it means that the diffusion index has been computed
from components of the indicator series; for example,
the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from
components of series 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new
numbers.
Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises
(or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag
in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion-Index Components
Many of the component series used to make up the
diffusion indexes are shown in table 5. Where possible,
recent basic data for the components are shown in
part A. In part B, directions of change in these
components are indicated for consecutive months and,
depending upon the irregularity of the diffusion index,
for either 6- or 9-month spans. The directions of
change are indicated by " + " for rising, "o" for unchanged, and u —" for falling, (In counting the number of components rising, a "o" is counted as onehalf.)
This table provides a convenient view of changing
business conditions and is helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it
shows which economic activities went up, which went
down, and how long such movements have persisted.
The table also helps to show how a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to
another.
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the
behavior of the various series in the current business
cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisions are made in different ways depending upon
whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or
contraction,
Expansions are compared in one way by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels.
In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month
in the current expansion (shown by number of months
from the February 1961 trough) are compared with
the May 1960 reference peak. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of
months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the preceding reference peak. This type
of comparison is designated as changes computed
from reference peak levels and reference trough dates.
This type of comparison shows whether, and by how
much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls
short of the level at the preceding business cycle
peak, and how the current situation compares, in this
respect, with earlier expansions. For those earliej
periods of expansion that were shorter than the current
one, the comparisons reflect the status at a point aftei
a new contraction had set in.
Expansions are also compared by computing changes
from reference trough levels and reference trough dates
(table 7). For the current expansion, this type of
comparison measures the extent of the rise from the
trough level (February 1961) to the level at the current month. For each earlier expansion, data for a
like period (same number of months from the trough of
the expansion) are compared with the level at the
trough. The same situation exists here as for the
comparisons shown in table 6: For earlier expansions
that were shorter than the current one, the comparisons
show the status at a point after a new contraction had
set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle peak
to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is
designated as changes from reference peak levels and
reference peak dates. These comparisons will be made
during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on the
basis of reference dates, which are the same for all
series, similar comparisons may be made using the
specific peak and trough dates identified for each series.
(Appendix B lists specific dates for a selected group
of series.) Such comparisons would be based on
changes from specific peak levels and specific trough
dates and on changes from specific trough levels and
specific trough dates. Although these specific cycle
comparisons are not currently included in this report,
they have been shown in previous issues.
Nearly all series have undergone changes in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919;
therefore, the historical comparisons are to be considered only approximate. Furthermore, it is sometimes necessary to use data for a closely related series
for cycles prior to the period covered by the series
used currently. The principal substitutions of this
type are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1948: Residential building contracts,
floor space, by F. W. Dodge Corp.)
fll, Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Factory employment)
|52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data
as published by Barger and Klein)
|54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1929: Department
store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, tot^l
manufacturing (prior to 1948: Production worker
wage cost per unit).
Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical
patterns of the business cycle series: Historical time
series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series
(charts 1 and 2)
These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the
background of expansions and contractions in general
business activity from 1948 to the current month.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak
dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle
trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for
a new contraction will be entered only after a trough
has been designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used
to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series.
The scale selected for each series is identified in the
margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series
can be compared with each other only where scales are
identical. See the diagram, page 6, for additional help
in using these charts.
Cyclical Comparisons
(chart 3)
This chart compares the movements of selected series
during the current business cycle with their movements
through the corresponding phases of previous business
cycles. Actually, it is an extension of the concept behind table 6. While table 6 makes a comparison at
one point in time, chart 3 shows these comparisons
over the course of the whole business cycle. These
comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the
current expansion relative to behavior during the expansions of earlier cycles.
Instead of following the usual date sequence, as in
charts 1 and 2, the data in this chart are alined according to the strategic points of the business cycle.
Each of the included series is separated into four segments which encompass the three complete business
cycles since 1948 and the current expansion. These
segments are alined so that the trough dates all fall at
the same point on the horizontal scale and so that the
levels of the preceding peaks all fall at the same point
on the vertical scale.
A similar chart, based on specific cycle dates, was
previously included in this report but has been discontinued for the present.
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.
CHART 1 - Business Cycle Series
See back cover for complete titles
and sources of series.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
12" = December)
Solid line indicates monthly data, v
(Data may be actual monthly fig- >^ /\
ures or MCD moving averages.*1
' "Wj
driiyi
Broken Hne indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average * is plotted.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted,
("II" = second quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.)
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. Series plotted to different
scales are not directly comparable,
''Scale A" is an arithmetic scale,
"scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance,
"scale 1-2" is a logarithmic scale
with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
Solid line with plotting points indi
cates quarterly data.
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Arabic number indicates .latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("12" =
December)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVfe, 2, or
2Vz months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCD moving averages.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("111" =
third quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.
Section ONE
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive employment and unemployment
New investment commitments
New businesses and business failures
Profits and stock prices
Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production
Income and trade
Wholesale prices
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment expenditures
Cost per unit of output
Inventories
Debt
Interest rates
OTHER U.S. SERIES
federal budget and military commitments
Reserves, money supply, and financing
Interest rates
Foreign trade
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1966
bcc
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
Average,percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg, workweek, prod, workers, mfg
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries —
3 Layoff rate, manufacturing
4 Temporary layoff, all industries
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
6. New orders, durable goods indus ......
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus ....
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial.
10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip7
11. New capital appropriations, mfg
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
Unit of '
measure
Hours
Per 100 empl ..
Thous
Per 100 empl . .
Thous , ...
June
1966
41.3
5-3
567
1.3
125
186
do
24-59
Bil. dol
do
4.75
Mil. sq. ft.
floor space ..
65.91
Bil. dol
5.57
... .do
Ann. rate,
thous
1,261
29. New bldg. permits, private housing .... 1957-59-100..
8^.2
do
38. Index of net business formation
107.6
13. New business incorporations
Number
16,6^1
14. Liabilities of business failures
Mil. dol
111.23
15 Large business failures
38
No.
per
week
.
.
16. Corporate profits after taxes'7;
Ann. rate,
bit. dol
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,7 mfg
1957-59=100..
106.5
18 Profits per dol. of sales, mfg .
Cents
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries^7.
Percent
1941-43-10
86.06
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*
21. Change in business
inventories, all
Ann. rate,
7a
industries .
bil. dol
31. Change in book value, 18manufacturing
+16.0
and trade inventories .
do
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inven-8
+4.0
tories of materials and supplies
do
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Percent
54
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commit72
do
ments 60 days or longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries*
do
69
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable
+1.70
goods industries^
Bil. dol
23. Industrial materials prices*
1957-59=100..
118.4
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments ..
42. Total nonagri cultural employment
43. Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate, married males
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate,
State
46. Help-wanted advertising
47. Industrial production 7
50 GNP in 1958 dollars
Thous
do
Percent. ...
do
63,983
69,759
4.0
1.9
July
1966
r41.0
r4.6
542
rl.7
115
August
1966
r41-4
P4.8
543
pl.O
100
September
1966
Sept. '65 Sept. '65 1953 to
1965
to date to date
(with 4 (without (without5 6
sign)
sign)
signlP
P41-4
(NA)
P509
(NA)
88
+0.1
+0.8
-0.2
+1.3
-3.0
0.3
5.0
4-2
11.6
17.5
0.5
4.6
1.8
8.8
17.1
230
196
183
+1.0
7.1
5.0
r24.37
r5.09
r23-40
r4.81
p24-24
P4-89
+0.8
+1.4
2.1
3.1
3.8
4.2
63.07
r6.10
61.79
P5.86
(NA)
(NA)
+0.1
+1.3
+6.1
6.3
3.6
6.1
9.3
4.7
10.4
-2.1
-3.7
-0.1
-0.5
-11.5
-1.6
8.6
6.2
1.0
2.2
35.6
7.2
3.7
0.8
2.5
18.7
10.0
12.3
+3.4
+0.3
0,3
3.4
0.5
3.8
5.6
0.6
6.0
+0.5
-1.1
1.5
(NA)
rl,068
81.3
105.9
16,688
62.84
42
rl,079
r74-5
103.5
16,224
161.75
50
r!06.1
(NA)
r!06.6
pi, 048
p64.9
(NA)
(NA)
136.24
47
p!06.8.
(NA)
(NA)
85.84
80.65
77.81
p+10.8
Current percent changt
June
to
July
1966
July
to
Aug.
1966
Aug
to
Sept
196f
c
+1.0
-0.7
-13.2 +4-3
U
-6
-4.4 +0.2
-30.8 +41.2
(*
+8.0 +13.0 +12
-23.7 +14.8
+£
-0.9
+7.2
-4-0
-5.5
+2
+1
-4-3
+9.5
-2.0
-3.9
(K
(K
(NA)
+1.0 ,—2
-15.3
-8.4 -12
-3.4
-1.6
-2.3
(*
-2.8
+0.3
<*
+43.5 -157.4 +15
+£
-10.5 -19.0
-0^4
(NA)
+0.6
(NA)
4-2
(NA)
2.4
2.5
-0.3
-6.0
+0.5
2.0
2.3
+C
-1-5
14-12.3
p+12.8
(NA)
+0.8
2.5
3.6
-3.7
+0.5
(J
H-l.l
P+5.6
(NA)
+0,2
1.5
1.5
-2.9
+4.5
0
60
61
55
+0.1
7.4
6.5
+11.1
+1.7
_c
73
73
72
+1.4
1.9
5-3
+1.4
0.0
-]
70
73
72
+1.5
5.8
7.5
+1.4
+4.3
-]
14-1.34
118.8
r4-0.58
111.7
P+1.45
108.9
+0.02
0.34
1.7
0.48
1.3
-0.36
+0.3
-0.76
+0,
+0.3
+1.2
+1.1
0.4.
0.4
3.0
3.8
0.3
0.4
3.9
5.4
+0.1
+0.2
+2.5
-5-3
+0.2
+0.4
+2.4
4.8
4.2
+1.5
+0.8
3.1
0.8
3.0
-14-3
+1.1
+0.4
+1.3
+2.1
+2.1
1.3
2.1
2,1
+1.3
+0.5
+0.8
+0.6
2.0
0.7
0.8
1.4
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.6
0.5
0.8
1.0
+3.9
+0.5
+0.1
-0.1
+0.2
0.2
0.2
+0.3
r64,072 r64,196 p64,181
70,116
70,180
69,928
3.8
3.9
3.9
2.0
2.0
1.9
do
2.1
2.1
2.4
2.4
186
184
1957-59-100
189
189
do
r!57.2
158.3
156.5
P158.2
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
P 650.7
17
p746.0
do .
49 GNP in current
dollars
7
P735.2
57. Final sales
".
do
3,377.1 3,508.5 3,473.8 P3,516.6
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y. . . .
do
580.0
577.2
52. Personal income
. . . do
r585-4 P589.5
r!57.1 P157.7
do
155.3
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr . . .
155.4
54. Sales of retail stores
Mil. dol
25,394 r25,362 r25,657 p25,554
55. Wholesale prices, except farm products
105.0
and foods
105.3
105.3
P105-3
1957-59=100..
3
-0.4
+0.4
1.0
-6.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
+1.6
+0.7
C
-(
+;
+i
+1;
t
-<
+1.1
+1.9
+2.1
-1.0
+0.9
+1.1
+1.2
0.0
+)
+
+
_L
bed
TABLE
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7966
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
July
1966
September
August
1966
1966 .
99*2
r99*8
a6l.60
r99.9
71.9
r73*0
(NA)
P74-1
(NA)
24-1
70,680
24.5
71,244
p24.7
71,846
June
1966
3
Sept. f 65 Sept. '65 1953 to
to date to date
1965
(with, (without (without
5
sign)*
sign)
sign)56
Current percent change3
June
to
July
1966
July
to
Aug.
1966
Aug.
to
Sept.
1966
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment7.
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP7
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories of
finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans*
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
1957-59-100..
do..
Bil. dol
.
do .....
Mil. dol
Percent
5.82
+4.0
4.0
0.5
3.2
0.6
+6! 6
+2.5
+0.1
+0.1
+1.0
+1.0
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.5
+1^5
(NA)
+1.5
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+0.8
+0.9
0.8
0.9
0.6
0.8
+1.7
+0.8
+0.8
+0.8
(NA)
(NA)
6.30
+6.0
6.0
2.0
162.0
153.5
-8.5
+2.1
+2.6
+0.2
10.9
12.3
23.0
3.9
4.3
+20.9
-14.9
-55-4
-6.1 +5.1
-17.5 +20.2
-17.0 +18.0
plOO.O
0.0
+8.2
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82 Federal cash payments to public
83 Federal cash receipts from public
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit 8
95. Balance, Federal income and product
account 7 8
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement
91.
92
99.
93.
85
Defense Dept. obligations total
Military contract awards in U S
New orders, defense products
Free reserves*0
Change in money supply 8
98. Change in money supply and time
deposits8.
10 Total private borrowing7
11 Corporate gross savings 7
12 Change, business loans 8
13. Change, consumer installment debt 8 ...
14 Treasury bill rate*
15 Treasury bond yields *
16 Corporate bond yields*
17. Municipal bond yields*
18 Mortgage yields *
86. Exports, excluding military aid
87 General imports
88 Merchandise trade balance 8
89. U.S. balance of payments7 8:
a Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis
81, Consumer prices
94 Construction contracts value
96. Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus
97. Backlog of capital appro., mfg.9
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
do
135.9
181.8
+45.9
rl64.3
1-154-8
r-9.5
154-2
r!27.7
r-26.5
.. .do.
Mil dol
r2,693
1,477
2,541
(NA)
+2.1
+10.9
2.1
34-9
2.5
27-4
-45^2
(NA)
+72.0
(NA)
r 7,084
3,675
3.68
-352
4,998
4,694
r3-50
r-358
7,215
2,845
r3.08
r-391
(NA)
(NA)
P3.88
p-373
+4.8
+3.8
+2.4
-19
16.1
17.4
14.0
46
13.9
24-5
22.5
98
-29.4
+27.7
-4.9
-6
+44.4
-39.4
-12.0
-33
(NA)
(NA)
+26.0
+18
r+6.36
-10.56
rO.OO
p+7.08
-0.08
8.00
3.11 -16.92 +10.56
+7.08
do
Ann. rate,
mil dol
do
Ann. rate,
bil. dot.....
do
Percent
do
do
do
r+10.08
+0.36
rf;5.l6
p+5-16
-0.^6
4.84
2.52
(NA)
+6.77
4.86
4-75
5.81
3.95
+3.49
+7.22
4-93
4.80
6.04
4.12
do
Mil. dol
do
do
6.51
6.45
2,485.8 r2,460.5
2,114.9 2,206.8
+370.9 1+253.7
6.58
2,460.5
2,148.1
+312.4
do
do
Bil. dol
Mil. dol
Ann. rate,
percent
(NA)
do
......do
1957-59=100 . .
do
Bit. dol
do
113.1
147
r72.65
113.8
139
r73.24
+4.80
7.0
1.3
11.5
4.3
p-3.06
(NA)
5.36
4-79
6.14
4.12
-0.59
-0.09
+2.7
+1.0
+2.3
+1.8
5.59
0.74
3.3
1.3
2.3
2.6
1.39
0.87
6.7
1.6
1.6
2.5
(NA)
+0.18
+7.0
+2.6
+2.5
+4.8
(NA)
+0.45
+1.4
+1.1
+4.0
+4.3
6.63
+1.6
+0.7
+1.3
-13.4
1.6
3.9
2.9
95.6
0.1
+0.9
-1.0
3.8
3.0
+4-3
-117.2
58.4
+1.1
0.0
-2.7
+58.7
+126
-138
275
788
341
492
+0.3
-0.4
+1.9
+6.4
0.3
3.0
1.9
6.4
0.2
6.6
1.4
6.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
113.0
147
71.31
P21.89
-9.72
+5.3
+1.3
(NA)
(NA)
+19169
+6.59
4.54
4.63
5.67
3.77
4.4
114-1
(NA)
p74.68
(NA)
0.00
(NA)
(NA)
-6.55
(NA)
+8.7
-0.2
+1.7
O.C
+0.8
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+0.1
0.0
+1.9
+0.6
-5.4
+0.8
+0.3
(NA)
+2.0
(NA)
x
r = revised; p= preliminary; e= estimated; a= anticipated; NA = not available.
Series are seasonally adjusted except.for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*), that
appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basicdata and notes in.table 2. 2Average percent changes are based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter)
3
percent changes for the specified periods.
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise
when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises [see series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Percent changes are computed in the
5
usual way but the signs are reversed. (See footnote 8 for other "change" qualifications.)
^Average computed with regard to sign.
Average computed without regard to
sign. 6Jhe period varies among the series; however, for most series, the period covered is 1953-65. 7Quarterly series; figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
^Since basicdata for this series are expressed in plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure
as the basic 'data, rather than in percent. 9Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
ion rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)
j
30.
Nonagri. placements, till tndus. (thou$.)
3. Layoff rate, mfg. [(per 10^ employees
inverted scale)
. layof^^allJindys. (thous.-inverted
scale. MCD moving avg.-5 term)
5. Ayg. weekly initial claimsj State unempl
inlsur. (thousl-invened i
bed
bed
CHART
OCTOBER 1966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
5
«?
'I
—J
ar~~
24. New ordeis, mach. and equip, indus. (bil. co
3 _!
-_?^£onstr. contradsjoau^oo(Liddus
floor area. MCD moving avg.-6 term)
11. ^ew capital apprj|opriatioik imfg,, Q (bil.
.
19.
Private nonfarm housing st
New bldg. permits, priva
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
38.
;
Index of net business Iformation (1957-59=100)
13. New bus. incorporations (thous.)
iab. of bus. failures (mil. dot.merited scqk MCD mpyjng avg.-6 term
15. |arae bus. failures (no.
inverted scale. MCD
bed
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
protits-after-taxes
18. Profits per dollar-of saks.-mfg., Q {cents
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corpordte, all industries,D (percent)
19^$t4ck-prices,^500 [common] stocks
=. -
1941-43=10
JUUluIlU i Iflf U ' jj if "J iJJJ^iJllj'j fJJJLU tillJJ LJ1
CHART
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1966
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Inventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices
•20
21. Change in bus. inventories, all Indus., Q (ann. rate, bil. do!.)
+ 10
0
31.
Change in book value, mfg. and
-10
•20
trade inventories (ann. rate, bil. dpi.
MCD moving avg.—5 term)
t-10
0
20.
-10
Change i n s book vdlue, mfrs.' inventories of
+8
materials and supplies (ann. rate, bil. dot.
MCD moving avg.—6 term)
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
50
25
26. Buying policy, (>rod. mtls., percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
.
,
!
.
.
!
I
I,
:!
1
75
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting sloWer deliveries
25. Change in unfilled orders,! dur. goods indtjs. (bil.! doL
ft/jCD moving avgi-4-termj—
index: 1957-5HOO)
bed
OCTOBER
1966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
41. Employees in nonalgri. establishments (millions)
42.
Total nonagri. employment (millions)
|
43.
Unemployment rate, total (percent—inverted
40. Unemployment rate,;; marriec| males
r
1
Uly insured
l
- --- -
I
unemployment rate, State
(percent-inverted scale)
46. Help^Wanted advertising (inde*J9:>/-59=]OUJ[
CHART
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1966
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
16
47. Industrial producjlon (index: W57-59=10CJ)
5NP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate,
Wi
mi. ,v. j
w M \ j P r } ' i':;, \\m.yf ' n ? ' M PJI nn M M li; Jjf. y lfl
1^1 \lMS;.^^;,U- ^^^^^
bed
CHART
OCTOBER 7966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
Continued
B
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Income and trade
_ j
51. Bonlc debits, lalhSMSAYeiccept tfcvrfofk(anpTafe, fri
2.4
2.2
600
52. Persoinal income
(ann, rate, bil. dol.)
L
53. Labor income^rnrmining, mfg., constr.
54. Sales of retail stores (b[Ldol.)
FT
i! <
LL
_,:
prices
exc. fc rm prod, and foods (in<
ex: 195 ^-59=10i
))
f
4"
..,. —-•
uijuJLJ;
immiLyW
yiL|11 iJUUlii uli
- .
*— — —
JWjJlWJL lllJLJ'JLLJbJWbjJLlJLjLlMidbjL JJJJLt
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948
bed
TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (onn. rate, bil dot.)
30
62. Labor cW per unit of fjtput, mtg, (index: 1957-59=100)
110
105
100
95
90
85
115
110
105
100
95
90
Cost per unit of output
68. llabor co|st per doll of rjjeal corpl GNP, Q (index! 1957-5^=100)
70
BO
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories !(bi| dol.)
2
50 !
*°
40
• >>
20
H
30
25
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil. dot.)
15
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)
. _ ;.
Q (percent)
y
i_
\
.
\
i
4
bed
CHART
OCTOBER
BASIC DATA
1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
j
95-
84.
Fed. cash surplus or deficit (ann. rate, bil. doL
:6—terni moving avg.J
—
Surplus or deficit, fed. iinterne antf
product acct., 0 (ann. rate, bil. dbl.)
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bil. dol.
moving avgVf-'6Tenj(i)"
\
91. Defense Dept. dtlig., tc^taf (bilJ dol.
MCD moving av,g.—6 term
.19
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7966
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
+1
I 85. Change In money suppfy; (ann. (rate, percent, ]
_ JVIC D mjo V i n g a v q.—6_Jte r m) _
981 Change in money supply arid time-deposit?
(ann. rate, percent. MOD moving avg.—6 term
1
(ann. fate, bil. dot.
Change: in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.) J
vuuuuuuy
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
114. Treasury bi I rate (percent
7. Municipal bond yields (percent)
^f=M=T=Hr+Hr+^HH
iiuiiMiijyyjjMiJJuilyiuJi'
-4HH=4-=r=HH=
> Imkiiu 11 du ILumli i
^rHHHMHSrir-
u y li; L' tuiijj ;jJ'jj In IliiJl11
CHART
CHART
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7966
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
2.8
2.6
2.4
Foreign trade
2.2
2.0
1.8
<N
-j
•SJ
S
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
CNJ
1.4
1.2
—J
•ss*.
1.0
0.8
Merchandise trade balance
+ 1.0
4—term moving avg.)
**
+ 0.5
*
89. U.S. balance of payments, Q (bil. doL
b. Official settlements
J
81. Consumer prices jindex: 1957-59=100t
94. C^nstruction^cpnjiqcts, va|ue (index: 1957r59=100(
1 MCD moving
97TTJ|pct(tog of cap. Ijppropndilons, mfg., Q (bit. dot.)j
A
bed
CHART
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
International Comparisons
7!, United States (index: 1957-59-100)
12Ukited Kingdom (mdex: 1957-59=100)
121. OECD European countries (index: 1957-59=100)
125. Wpst Gerrlian^ (index: 1957-59=1001
120 ^ J
280 .
260 \
240 4
220 2
200 -|
180 "
160 I
JyuilUjJ JjjJUujjlyiliLmJUiiilflJM
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and month
1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
(Hours)
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
30. Nonagricul- 3. Layoff rate,
tural placements, manufacturing
all industries
(Per 100
employees)
(Thous.)
4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff, all industries
(Thous.)
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs1
6. Value of1 manufacturers new
orders, durable
goods industries
(Thous.)
(Bit. dol.)
24. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, machinery
and equipment
industries
(Bil. dol.)
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, "
June
JU|y
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April....
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
40.4
40.2
40.4
40.2
40.4
40.5
40.5
40.4
40.6
40.7
40.5
40.6
3.8
3.8
3.8
4.1
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.7
3.9
552
554
555
557
546
545
541
543
553
575
533
525
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
152
121
107
138
95
92
131
130
108
135
134
97
310
301
288
293
288
284
281
290
285
282
276
301
18.47
18.23
18.78
19.04
18.74
17.68
18,28
18.06
18.24
18,62
18.11
17.97
3.25
3.21
3.22
3.35
3.42
3.29
3.33
3.31
3.42
3.44
3.27
3.61
40.1
40.5
40.5
40.7
40.6
40.7
40.7
40.9
40.6
40.7
40.9
41.2
3.8
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
4.1
4.0
4.0
3.9
4.0
4.0
4.1
534
532
523
522
529
518
523
507
518
514
533
524'-
1.8
1.9
1.8
1.7
1,8
1.7
1.8
1.3
1.6
1.7
1.5
1.6
116
125
98
122
111
121
118
91
121
92
89
109
284
270
277
265
262
257
260
244
245
249
262
251
19.74
19.50
19.26
20.46
19.94
20.02
21.25
19.34
19.91
19.62
19.45
20.72
3.62
3.41
3.46
3.61
3.93
3.92
3.77
3.77
3.69
3.79
3.88
3.92"
41.1
41.2
41.3
41.0
41.2
41.0
41.0
41.1
41.0
4.0
4.1
4.3
4.0
4.1
4-4
4-1
4.3
4-5
4.5
4.9
4.8
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.5
1-4
1.4
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.3
1-4
79
124
110
117
102
140
121
110
84
84
120
125
243
248
237
237
224
224
. 231
248
218
209
212
206
21.27
21.13
21.71
22.04
20.99
21.31
22.20
21.51
22.16
22.42
22.39
23.40
3.96
3.80
4.02
4.08
4.07
4.09
4.35
4. .16
4.15
4-25
4.32
4.58
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.3
rl.7
§I>pl.O
(NA)
111
106
93
100
0>74
125
115
100
SS
222
219
182
179
185
186
230
196
183
23.58
23.74
@>*24.89
24.20
24.28
24.59
r24.37
r23.40
P24-24
4-45
4.58
4-59
4.79
4.84
4.75
K> r5.09
r4.81
P4-89
a. 2
41.4
41.3
41.4
a. 5
41.5
41.5
0>^L.5
41-3
r41.0
r41-4
P41-4
4-9
4.9
5.2
4.8
5-1
|8>5.3
r4.6
P4.8
(NA)
522
549
528
535.
533
548
541
537
529
547
544
563
^ 570
g>600
589
522
513
567
542
543
P509
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by[f£>, for series that'move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 f 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by|§!> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA"., not available.
•"•Data exclude Puerto Rico which, is included in figures published by source agency.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
24
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1963
January
February
March
Apri!
....
Mav
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
Jung f
July
August
September . .
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
'
July
August
September
October
November
December
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial
buildings
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
(Mil. sq.ft.
floor space)
(Bil.dol.)
44.61
45.11
39.42
40.23
47.00
51.39
45.78
44.93
43.88
50.81
43.73
45.43
3.84
3.82
3.75
3. 98
4.28
3.96
3.94
3.91
4. OS
4.17
4.32
4.56
51.07
51.05
48.41
53.48
46.22
47.82
52.62
47.72
51.41
53.75
49.61
58.88
4.38
4.14
4.11
4.36
4.63
4.64
4-52
4.53
4.51
4.56
4.92
4.94
53.20
58.12
54.04
64.26
56.13
55.28
55.90
49.60
63.48
60.49
60.33
64.36
4.72
4.67
4.84
4.98
5.02
4.81
5.16
4.90
5.15
5.13
5.05
5.35
r6l.84
ED> r73.3:i
69.09
71.63
61.96
65.91.
63.07
61.79
r5.46
r5.71
5.66
5.91
5-77
5 57
^
'
|C>r6.10
P5.86
(NA)
(NA)
11. Newly approved 7. New private
capital appropria- nonfarm dwelling
tions, 1,000 manu- units started
facturing
corporations 1
(Bil. dol.)
2.80
3.30
3.72
4.10
4-39
4.81
5.00
4.52
5.00
5.79
5.85
6.32
6.36
|C> P 6 - 98
(NA)
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized
by local building
permits
38. Index of net
business formation
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
14. Current
liabilities of
business failures
(1957-59400)
(1957-59400)
(Number)
(Mil. dol.)
146.46
1,285
1,438
1,486
1,652
1,676
1,550
1,574
1,522
1,676
1,706
1,592
1,522
111.8
108.2
112.9
113.6
120.0
119.3
116.5
113.5
121.0
123.6
119.9
123.7
98.9
100.2
100.5
99.2
99.6
100.0
100.7
101.7
101.4
101.7
101.4
101.8
14,924
15,390
15,563
15,305
15,682
15,536
15,431
16,093
15,689
16,275
15,759
15,867
93.05
94.12
88.15
115.05
91.07
144.50
te>52.86
94.52
99.92
255.72
87.17
B>1,753
1,706
1,571
1,506
1,496
1,593
1,475
1,489
1,422
1,495
-1,480
1,575
116.8
fc>124.6
121.7
113.6
112.9
115.1
111.5
113.4
109.7
109.1
110.8
105.4
103.1
102.8
102.9
103.7
105.3
103.9
104.0
103.6
104.8
106.6
105.8
106.8
16,250
16,018
15,992
16,180
15,917
15,919
15,979
16,074
16,605
16,493
17,103
17,154
91.69
119.29
110,67
107.10
97.92
136.19
125.14
90.99
118.59
97.98
111.00
126.49
1,417
1,468
1,465
1,532
1,501
1,539
1,447
1,409
1,436
1,380
1,531
1,735
112.3
108.2
109.9
106.2
109.7
109.9
108.9
108.4
104.1
109.8
112.9
114.0
107.5
107.6
106.1
105.3
105.0
106.8
106.4
106.4
105.3
104.6
105.3
105.9
17,275 '
17,367
17,112
16,504
16,043
16,671
16,369
16,957
17,138
16,744
17,418
16,999
84.54
107.57
146 . 29
79.51
139.09
135.66
120.64
128.98
108.56
85.67
66.65
128.06
1,585
1,349
1,538
1,481
1,287
1,261rl.,068
rl,079
pi, 048
110.7
105.6
111.9
104.6
96. Q
84.. 2
81.3
r74-5
p64-9
108.7
|JD>109.6
109.2
108.4
107.6
107-6
105.9
103.5
(NA)
17,677
B>17,868
17,305
17,022
16,603
16,641
16,688
16,224
(NA)
111.67
94.59
98.73
106.93
92.41
111.23
62.84
161.75
136.24
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement, unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated byjf£>;for series that move counter to movements in general business; activity (series 3, 4,5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by[j£>Series numbers are tor identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
a
The data from 1961 on have been adjusted to reflect a change in the seasonal adjustment of appropriations for the petroleum
and coal products industry and a change in the reporting basis of nonelectrical machinery.
These revisions do not materially
affect comparability with the data before 1961. (See NICE publication, Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First
Quarter 1965.)
25
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
15. Number of
16. Corporate
profits after taxes
business failures
with liabilities
$100,000 and over1
(Number per
week)
17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost
index, manufacturing
18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations
(1957-59=100)
(Cents)
(Ann. rater
bil. dol.)
22. Ratio of profits 19. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
to income origistocks*
nating, corporate,
all industries
(Percent)
(1941-43=10)
21. Change in
business inventories
after valuation adjustment, all industries
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1963
99.7
/Q
4-7
February
March
April
May
, y
June
JU|y
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
31.1
L^
L2
40
32.8
61
38
39
A?
A3
/2
38
38
33-5
34-9
/I
qc> n
38
//
39
39
33,5
/O
42
/o
/?
/O
39.1
39.0
35
40
42
33
47
47
39
45
43
35
40
48
37
36
36
37
38
38
42
50
47
/3.8
A3. 8
44.1
/6 3
48.7
(H*^> AS
7
AUL—
(NA)
AC nA
100.1
100.5
100.8
101.3
102.2
101.7
100.9
101.0
101.5
100.8
100.8
8 6
11.3
8 6
11.3
8 8
9
A
11.7
T O O
...
A Q
102.8
102.6
103.3
103.0
103.3
103.9
104.9
104.4
103.6
104.9
105.3
106.0
r!06.1
rl06.6
B*^>.pl06.8
10.8
...
101 6
101 9
101 3
101 9
101 7
100.8
101 2
101.6
100.8
100 6
101 8
102.6
105.6
106.0
106.8
105 . 9
106.0
106.5
8 1
.• .
T O O
9 n
T O O
A 7
-| O 1
9 8
n o .U
A
J-P
...
Q 3
-| o Q
9 /
T 0 Q
• . .
Q *i
te^
...
133
-L.JO
" ""
0*^9 Q
Q 3
CNA)
Sh^Tq 3
13-1
(NA)
65 92
65 67
68.76
70 14
70.11
69 07
70.98
72.85
73.03
72.62
74.17
76.45
77.39
78.80
79.94
80.72
80.24
83.22
82.00
83.41
84.85
85.44
83.96
86.12
86.75
86.83
87.97
89.28
85.04
84,91
86.49
89.38
91.39
92 15
91.73
liT^s* 93 32
92 69
88 88
91 60
86 78
86 06
8*5 s/
go. 65
77.81
a
78.19
+4.7
+4.8
+6.0
+8.1
1 Q
C
T.5O
...
H
o,
...
+3
A
+7
/
+Q 5
+7 6
+8 7
4-1 n y
...
+8.9
§D>+12*.3
pflO.8
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by|j£>; for series thatjnove counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by[jD> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; (ip", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA"., not available.
x
H5gh value (32) was reached in February 1962.
Average for October 18, 19, and 20.
a
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
26
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1963
31. Change in
book value of manufacturing and
trade inventories,
total
20. Change in
book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies x
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
January
February
March
April
Mav
, "
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
+3.1
+2 5
+3.0
+4.6
+2.7
+5.1
+6.0
+1.8
+5.6
+7.1
+9.6
+7,2
+5.1
+2.3
+3.7
+8.0
+4-3
+2.2
+1,2
+2.9
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July-..
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September .
October
November
December
+10.7
+0.4
+9.4
+14.6
+11.2
+5.0
+13.8
+8.7
+9.4
+6.1
+11.6
+8.1
+3.4
+8.2
+10.2
+16.2
2
(NA)
+13,3
+12 5
+12.1
|j>+17.1
+16 C
r+12.3
rH-12.8
(NA)
37. Purchased
materials, percent
reporting higher
inventories
(Percent
reporting)
+0.6
+0.4
0.0
+1.3
+2.6
+4-3
+3.5
+2.0
+1.0
+0.4
+2.5
+5.3
+1.5
-0.5
+0.7
+1.4
+3-1
+0.9
+1.0
+2.0
+0.9
+1.2
+0.8
+3.8
+3.4
+/ 0
r+1.1
p+5.6
(NA)
.
(Percent
reporting)
23. Index of industrial materials
prices*
(1957-59=100)
(Bil. dol.)
+0.96
95 5
+0 68
+0 9/
+0 85
9*i 1
58
54
05
38
10
09
40
93 9
51
55
57
56
60
58
60
58
53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
61
60
64
65
55
54
60
60
63
55
59
65
74
72
70
66
+0.40
+0.57
+0.16
+1.04
+0.38
+0.81
+1.26
+0.06
+0.77
+1.00
+0.27
+0.55
98.5
98,5
98.9
102.4
100.9
101.4
102.5
105.7
108.2
112.0
113.2
112.5
60
61
57
61
60
58
57
60
58
45
50
48
65
65
68
67
65
62
62
63
61
63
63
63
68
72
66
72
70
66
62
64
62
60
66
72
+0.32
+0.81
+0.44
+0.84
+0.50
+0.58
+0.38
+0.32
+1.24
+1.28
+0.78
+1.09
48
46
53
51
52
54
68
67
68
69
70
60
73
E>73
72
74
85
[g>86
82
75
69
70
73
72
42
50
54
53
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
-1.6
(Percent
reporting)
25. Change in unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46
48
47
48
55
56
55
50
49
46
43
43
-1.9
-0.5
32. Vendor performance, percent
reporting slower
deliveries*
50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55
47
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
-0.5
+1.7
-0.4
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7
26. Production
materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or
longer*
K>61
55
72
+0 33
0
0
-0
+0
+0
0
-0
+1.27
+1.31
+1.65
+1 . 49
+1.36
[jji>+1.70
r+1.34
r+0.58
P+l-45
9/ /
9/, 5
Q^ ?
9A ?
94 2
Q/
96
97
97
1
3
3
7-
110.6
110.7
113.2
116.7
116.9
115.3
114-6
115.2
114.8
115.0
115.5
. 117.1
120.5
122.9
[tC>123.5
121.5
118.3
118 4
118.8
111.7
108.9
3
105.5
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated byg>»; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 r 4,5,14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by|C> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
High value (+6.6) was reached in December 1961.
Because of the adoption of a new sample for the wholesale trade component, data beginning with January 1966 are not comparable with data for the earlier period.
3
Average for October 18, 19, and 2<J.
2
27
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
(Thous.)
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, y
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
55,966
56,079
43. Unemployment
42. Total nonagricultural employ- rate, total
ment, labor force
survey
(Thous.)
63,086
40. Unemployment
rate, married
males
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
46. Index of help- 47. Index of indus45. Average
wanted advertising trial production
weekly insured
in newspapers
unemployment rate,
1
State programs
56,228
56,445
56,594
56,644
56,761
56,836
56,983
57,168
57,157
57,303
63,219
63,462
63,716
63,579
63,791
63,974
64,089
64,306
64,245
64,347
64,399
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.5
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.3
57,336
57,676
57,800
57,942
58,061
58,211
58,369
58,521
58,747
58,649
59,118
59,387
64,621
65,084
65,208
65,765
65,774
65,472
65,581
65,682
65,697
65,730
66,133
66,426
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.1
5.4
5.0
5.1
5.1
5-2
4.9
5.0
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.8
3.0
2.4
2.6
59,489
59,777
60,072
60,152
60,363
60,623
60,841
61,021
61,180
61,437
61,864
62,241
66,719
66,718
66,895
66,919
66,947
67,434
67,979
67,815
67,879
68,010
68, 641
68,955
4-8
5.0
4-7
4.8
4.6
4.7
4.5
4-5
4.4
4.3
4-2
4.1
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
62,469
62,811
63,247
63,350
63,517
63,9R3
r 64, 072
fi£>. r64,196
p64,181
69,286
69,079
69,072
69,317
69,155
69,759
69,928
|ff>70,l80
^"70,116
4.0
3.7
3.8
tt>3-7
4.0
4.0
3.9
3-9
3.8
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.8
te> 1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.9
2.3
2.6
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.8
(1957-59=100)
4.8
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
el07
e!09
e!08
109
105
104
109
105
107
111
4.1
4.1
112
118
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3-4
3.4
3.4
116
117
118
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
,3.4
3.(3'
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.4
2.4
g> 2.1
(1957-59400)
119.8
120.6
121.9
122.7
124.4
125.6
125.6
125.4
125.7
126.1
126.1
127.0
124
123
126
127
134
137
127.9
128.4
129.3
130.8
131.8
132.0
133.3
134-0
134.0
131.6
135.4
138.1
137
145
148
143
145
146
145
152
160
168
181
186
138.6
139.2
140.7
140.9
141.6
142.7
144.2
144.5
143.5
145.1
146.4
148.7
184
191
BD>2oi
^^189
185
184
186
189
p!89
150.2
151.9
153-4
153-8
155.2
156.5
120
118
121
r!57.2
i> 158.3
p!58.2
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by[|£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by|£> Series numbers are for identification'only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA"-, not available.
•"•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
28
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Year and month
50. Gross
national product
in 1958 dollars
49. Gross
national product
in current
dollars
(Ann, rate,
biLdol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April.
May
June
57. Final sales 51. Bank debits, 52. Personal
(series 49 minus allSMSA's exincome
series 21)
cept New York
(224 SMSA's)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
.••
577.4
546.0
584.2
579.4
554-7
• ••
562.1
594-7
• *.
•. .
605.8
588.8
.••
...
597.7
569.7
616.8
613.3
578.1
627.7
623.5
585.0
637.9
634.4
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
587*2
644.2
636.8
600.3
660.8
651.4
607.8
672.9
665.3
618.2
686.5
677.8
631.2
704-4
694.0
640.5
721.2
643.5
732.3
g>p650.7
E^*p746.0
September
October
November
December
457.6
455.7
2,357.2
2,472.5
2,4L9.2
2,368.2
2,561.0
2,463.1
2,559.0
2,605.5
2,527.4
2,610.2
457.6
458.4
461.2
464.2
465.6
467.8
470.0
473.4
474-9
479.1
2,571.5
2,590.3
2,597.3
2,693.8
2,688.4
2,607.4
2,746.7
2,681.7
2,755.9
2,771.5
2,730.3
2,803.5
2,803.3
2,845.1
2,923.8
2,962.0
2,871.5
3,019.4
3,021.0
3,018.8
3,022.6
3,068.9
3,178.9
3,249.6
3,198.1
3,263.9
3,397.1
3,390.1
720.0
3,348.1
3 377.1
3, 508. 5
3,473.8
f£>p735.2
Jjj>p3,5l6.6
712.3
(Ann. rate,
biLdol.)
2,345.9
2,416.2
572.7
.••
541.2
• ••
;...
(Ann. rate,
biLdol.)
53. Labor income 54. Sales of
in mining, manu- retail stores
facturing, and
construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
55. Index of
wholesale prices
except farm
products and foods
(1957-59400)
120.0
119.9
120.6
120.7
122.2
123.0
123-5
123.5
124.6
125.3
125.7
126.8
20,319
20,226
20,374
20,292
20,178
20,517
20,634
20,581
20,489
20,774
20,727
20,952
100.5
100.5
100.5
100.4
100.5
100.8
100.9
100*9
100.8
100.9
100.9
101.1.
482.3
483.8
486.1
489.3
492.6
494.1
497.3
500.8
502.7
503.5
506.8
512.1
126.2
127.8
128.7
129.8
130.0
130.8
131.7
133.0
134.0
132.7
134.7
136.9
21,023
21,408
21,305
21,442
21,701
21,797
21,862
22,227
22,333
21,429
21,690
22,766
101.1
101.2
101.2
101.2
101.1
101.0
101.2
101.2
101.3
101.5
101.6
101.7
516.7
517,3
520 1
522.5
528.0
532.2
535.4
537.8
552.5
547.2
553.2
558.2
137.0
138.5
139.3
138.5
140.0
141.0
141-3
142.4
142.7
144-2
146.5
147.8
22,936
23,262
22,856
22,849
23,317
23,322
23,668
23,585
23,753
24,194
24,647
24,816
101.7
101.9
102.1
102.2
102.3
102.6
102.6
102.8
102.9
102.8
103.2
103.1
560.2
564.7
569.0
570.5
573.0
577 ".2
580.0
r585.4
0>p589-5
25,023
149.3
151.1
25,263
152.6
25,536
153.2
2A,9A9
154.0
24,475
155.3
25,394
r25,362
155.4
,
r!57.1 fc>r25,657
Hn>pl57.7
p25,554
103.4
103.8
104.0
104.3
104.8
105.0
105.3
105.3
fexp!05.3
t
105.1
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by^>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by$C> Series numbers are for identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; V, preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NAVnqt available.
ended October 18.
29
TABLE
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and month
61. Business expenditures on new
plant and equipment, total
62. Index of labor
cost per unit of
output, manufacturing
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
68. Index of labor 64. Book value of
manufacturers'
cost per dollar of
real corporate GNP inventories
(1957-59-100)
(Bil. dol.)
65. Book value of
manufacturers'
inventories of finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on
short-term, business
loans, 19 cities*
(Bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
1963
100.6
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November ........
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
99.5
99.3
98.7
99.3
104-2
•.•
...
104.0
...
...
41.20
•.•
100.1
99.7
99.8
100.0
100.0
103.7
...
...
104-1
...
42.55
• ••
.••
43.50
99.3
99.1
99.7
99.3
99.3
100.2
99.7
36.95
• ••
33.05
• ••
40.00
.
100.0
45-65
.• .
47.75
49.00
...
50.35
.
52.75
55-35
58.00
0£>60.10
a6l.60
99.7
99.5
^
100.3
K> 101.299.5
98.9
98.7
99,1
98.7
99.4
99.3
99.0
98.1
98.9
99.5
98.6
98.6
97.8
98.7
98.9
98.5
99.6
99-7
99.2
r99.8
r99.9
plOO.O
.. •
103.8
...
...
57.9
58.0
58.1
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59.1
59.3
59.8
60.1
19.9
20.0
47,659
48,154
48,631
49,152
49,593
20.0
20.0
.20.1
20.3
20.3
20.4
20.6
20.6
21.0
21.2
50,079
50,655
51,207
51,631
52,194
52,648
53,202
105.6
.. .
60.0
60.1
60.3
60.5
60.5
60.4
60.5
60.8
61.0
61.8
62.4
62.9
21.4
21.4
21.6
21.6
21.5
21.6
21.6
21.6
21.8
21.9
22.2
53,689
54,259
54,865
55,333
55,907
56,375
56,911
57,410
58,004
58,475
58,836
59,454
104.5
•• .
...
105.3
••.
...
105.3
...
...
105.4
• ••
63.2
63.4
63.7
64.0
64.3
64.6
65-4
65.8
66.3
66.6
67.2
68.0
22.4
22.4
22.5
22.3
22.4
22.3
22.5
22.5
22.6
22.7
22.9
23.1
60,069
60,666
61,308
62,053
62,709
63,304
64,028
64,684
65,370
65,990
66,689
67,323
68.6
69.0
69.6
70.3
71.1
71.9
r73.0
fc**p74.1
23-5
23.6
23.8
23.8
24.1
24.1
24.5
S£>p24.7
104-2
...
.' . • .
104-5
...
106.8
B^lOg.4
(NA)
(NA)
21.2
(NA)
67,920
68,458
69,107
69,638
70,131
70, 680
71 , 244
0!>71,846
'
(NA)
...
5.00
...
...
5.01
.••
5.01
.. .
...
5.00
4.99
...
*.•
4.99
...
.•*
4.98
...
•..
5.00
.'. .
4.97
•..
4.99
...
...
5.00
.. •
5.27
5.55
5.82
• ••
fc>6.30
a63.55
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by|£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
byte*. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The 'V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
30
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Year and month
1963
82. Federal cash
payments to the
public
(Ann. rate,
bil. don
January
February
March
April
May
June
JU|y
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April.
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
112.4
83. Federal cash
receipts from the
public
84. Federal cash
surplus (+) or
deficit(-)
95. Surplus (+) or
deficit (-), Federal
income and product
account
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. doi.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. doU
109.6
116.5
113-8
107.3
108.5
109.1
108.1
116.7
115.7
120.2
121.6
119.7
122.1
119.3
117.2
114.1
112.8
113.7
117.3
113.4
115.3
115.4
118.7
126.5
119.7
121.0
115.1
119.6
116.3
121.1
108.4
113.5
114.7
-5.1
-1.1
-7.4
-5.7
-2.6
-2.9
-6.5
-4.3
-6.3
-6.8
-3.9
+1.5
118.9
116.5
122.2
121.0
117.3
118.4
112.9
126.6
112.4
113.7
115.7
115.4
115.1
-4.7
-1.3
-10.5
-3.0
-7.5
-8.6
-3.6
-2.7
+2.5
-11.5
122.0
122.2
117.8
125.6
129.3
133.9
119.5
128.8
136.9
124.3
146.3
126.6
110.9
117.6
128.2
144.4
118.1
129.3
116.1
125.0
126.6
113-6
129.6
125.0
-11.1
-4.6
+10.4
+18.8
-11.2
-4.6
-3-4
-3.3
-10.3
-10.7
-16.7
-1.6
146.9
142.5
153-5
139.4
153.8
135.9
r!64-3
154-2
162.0
124.3
137.1
U2.8
155.2
137.8
181.8
r!54.8
rl27.7
153.5
-22.6
122. 4
1
(Mil, dol.)
-2.4
...
...
+1.8
+1.2
...
...
+2.1
...
-11.4
-0.1
91. Defense
90. Defense
Department obliga- Department obligations, procurement tions, total
-1.9
...
-6.7
*..
...
-3.0
...
-0.5
+4.5
...
+4-4
...
-2.5
.. *
...
-Q.2
...
1,586
1,206
1,366
1,215
1,358
1,363
1,132
1,700
1,207
2,010
1,094
1,273
2,198
2,435
2,154
1,966
2,240
2,334
2,419
1,075
1,843
1,237
1,389
1,910
1,079
1,494
803
1,141
889
1,089
1,747
4,351
5,317
4,133
4,544
4,818
4,349
4,677
4,237
4,405
3,773
4,228
5,325
2,149
2,689
1,598
2,508
2,454
1,879
2,904
1,926
2,191
1,745
2,008
1,883
1,005
4,278
3,839
4,624
4,593
4,630
4,520
4,258
5,223
5,276
4,962
4,896
5,669
1,830
1,628
1,874
2,926
2,025
2,438
2,699
2,770
2,465
2,566
2,679
2,915
5,100
5,179
5,879
6,444
5,447
r7,084
4,998
7,215
2,712
2,596
2,357
3,466
2,945
3,675
4,694
2,845
(NA)
700
1,355
1,444
1,402
1,254
1,128
1,741
1,732
1,733
1,212
1,882
+2.3
-10.7
+15.8
-16.0
1,521
1,420
1,947
+3.8
1,538
2,299
r2,693
1,477
CNA)
(Mil. dol.)
4,632
4,137
4,233
4,078
4,507
4,481
4,349
4,580
4,160
5,112
4,093
4,371
-5-4
+45.9
r-9.5
r-26*5
-8.5
(Mil. dol.)
92. Military prime
contract awards to
U.S. business firms
2,541
(NA)
(NA)
2,733
2,578
2,086
1,681
2,079
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e"( estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
31
BASIC DATA
bed
OCTOBER 1966
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
99. New orders,
defense products
Year and month
(Bil. dol.)
93. Free reserves* 85, Change in
total U.S. money
supply
98. Change in
money supply and
time deposits
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Revised1
+4,08
+4.92
+1.56
+4.08
+3.96
+4.80
+4.80
+1.56
+2.40
+6.36
+7.08
-0.84
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Revised1
+8.28
+9.24
+6.72
+7.68
+7.20
+8.04
+8.52
+6.96
+6.96
+9.24
+11.04
+4-56
+3.96
+3-12
+0.72
+3-12
+3.84
+4.68
+7.68
+4.56
+7.68
+4-56
+1.56
+5-28
+7.68
+6.24
+4.08
+5.76
+7.56
+8.40
+9.24
+7.80
+9-48
+8.52
+7.68
+9.24
0.00
+0.72
+3-72
+5-28'
-2.28
+7.44
+5.16
+4.44
+8.04
+8.04
+2.88
+11.64
+8.76
+8.76
+7.44
+8.16
+4.08
+10.56
+9.72
+10.80
+10.68
+12.60
+8.52
+11.52
+5.76
+1.44
+7.80
+11.28
-4.92
+6.36
-10.56
0.00
p+7.08
+6.48
+3.36
+7.92
+13.20
+3.36
+10.08
+0.36 '
+5.16
p+5.16
(Mil. dol.)
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1.90
2.40
2.36
2.47
1.92
1.97
1.48
+138
+161
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2. 4B
2.34
3.29
1.86
1.98
2.41
1.79
1.87
„
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2.89
2.09
+375
2. -42
+269
1.97
2.40
+313
+301
+247
.
+133
+91
+94
+33
+209
+175
+89
+99
+167
+82
+120
+135
+83
+89
+106
-34
+168
2.37
+106
2.44
2.46
3.24
2.46
2.58
•
+36
-75
-105
-180
-182
-174
-134
-144
-146
2.62
2.81
3.45
3.28
2.57
2.53
-83
-2
3-40
3.04
3.38
3.30
2.91
3.68
r3.50
r3.08
p3.88
-44
-107
-246
-268
-352
-352
r-358 '
r-391
p-373
^
110. Total private
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
Revised1
41,688
...
50,036
...
42,392
51,956
...
44,172
54,428
...
47,184
48,148
49,300
61,680
50,556
**.
...
52,116
...1
56,032
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
Revised1
44,308
...
112. Change in
business loans
111. Corporate
gross savings
+1.43
+1.42
+1.85
+2.40
+2.35
+1,74
+1,97
+2.04
+2.08
+4.66
+5.22
+5.78
+1.79
+3.48
+1.42
+3.17
+4.25
+3.89
+4.31
+4.78
+4.28
+1.43
+0.32
+8.62
...
56,432
**
51,348
62,420
54,984
69,512
54,496
64,788
55,524
67,756
56,352
66,052
57,752
75,172
...
57,788
+12.35
+13.14
+12.47
+6.32
+11.04
+11.38
+10.00
+5.53
+4.00
+5.33
+0.32
+10.84
•
(NA)
(HA)
+14.23
+7.21
+8,87
+6,60
+10.93
+19 . 69
(2)
+3.49
p-3.06
•*
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•''See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii,
2
Because of a change in coverage, data beginning with July 1966 are not comparable with data for the earlier period.
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Year and month
1963
113. Net change in 114. Treasury bill
consumer install- rate*
ment debt
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol,)
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April....
May
June
July
August
September
October
November. ........
December
1965
January
February
M ar rh
April
May
Jung
July
August
September
October . .
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
115. Treasury bond 116. Corporate bond 117. Municipal bond 118. Mortgage
yields*
yields*
yields*
yields*
(Percent)
(Percent)
2.91
2.92
3.89
(Percent)
4 22
4 25
4 28
L 36
4 36
4 32
4 34
4 34
4.40
4-37
4.42
4 49
+5 82
+5.94
+5 72
+6 25
+5.29
+5.83
+6 91
+6.62
+5.09
+6.76
+5*4-5
+6.65
3.00
3.14
3-32
3.38
3.45
3.52
3.52
3.97
4.00
4.01
3-99
4.04
4.07
4.11
4.14
+5.84
+6.84
+7.27
+5.62
+6.89
4.5.62
+6.43
+5.99
+7.13
4.5.65
+4.33
+7.42
3.53
3.53
3-55
3.48
3 /.8
3.48
3.48
3.51
3-53
3.58
3.62
3.86
4.15
4.14
4-18
4.20
4.16
4.13
4.13
4.14
4.16
4.16
4.12
4.14
4.50
4.39
4.45
4 48
+7 38
+7 16
1 83
q qq
4-7 7O
+8.94
+7.87
+7.14
+8.69
+7.87
+8.23
+7.44
+8.39
+7.61
+7 16
+6.46
+7 . 79
+6.37
+5.92
+6.59
+6.77
+7 OO
(\N&)
WA\
2 90
2.91
2.92
Ql
jQ .74-
3.93
3-90
3.81
3.83
3.84
3.91'
4.03
4.08
4.36
4 60
4.67
4.63
4.6l
4.64
4.54
4.86
4-93
5-36
3-92
3 93
3.97
(Percent)
86. Exports excluding military aitf
shipments, total
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
3.10
3.15
5 52
5.48
? 06 «
3.10
6 /7
5.46
987 3
2
1
1
1
122.1
969 1
915.5
896.8
3.11
3.21
3.22
3.13
3.20
3.20
3-30
3.27
5./5
5.45
5 45
5.45
5.45
5 45
5*45
5.45
4 50
4.44
4 44
4 49
4 49
4 48
4.49
3.22
3.14
3.28
3.<28
3.20
3.20
3.18
3.19
3.23
3.25
3*18
3.13
5.45
5.45
5.45
5 45
5 45
5 45
5.46
5 46
5.46
5 45
5.45
5.45
2,039.6
2 057.8
2,075.2
2 061.0
2 0/.7.3
2 076.5
2,118.6
2 099*8
2,261.0
2 156.4
2,206.2
2,426.1
L "1A
/ LK
3 06
6 Z6
1 214.6
4 16
/ /6
q n9
q ..Lo
1 3
ji
6 ,/ 6
e y e
1 69ft ft
£
P 704.0
i/ ft
^,
4.52
4.57
4-57
4.66
4.71
4.70
4-75
4.92
3.15
3.17
3.24
3.27
3*24
3.35
3.40
3.46
3.54
5.45
5.45
5.44
5.44
5.45
5.46
5.49
5.51
5.62
2 379.6
2)260.2
2,230.2
2,255.5
2,332.9
2,324.1
2,341.6
2,408.2
2,355.8
4.93
5-09
5.33
5.38
5*55
5.67
5.81
6.04
6.14
i 6?
"3.6A
3.72
3.56
3.65
3.77
3-95
4-12
4-12
6 70
(NA^
6.00
2 ?/ft A
/ -\ c
4-J-2
4.15
4.14
4.14
4-15
4.19
4.25
4.28
4.34
4.43
L L3
4.61
4.63
4.55
4.57
4.63
4-75
4.80
4- 79
L Aft
1 /Q
4.48
(NA^
6.32
6 45
6.51
6.58
6.63
1 791.1
1 841.1
1 905.3
1,985.5
1 954.2
1 955-8
2,105.4
2,33/ ft
r2 69/ ?
2 qqi o
T*P
3A/
^
2 485 8
r2,460 75
2./60. 6
(NA)
'
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except tnose that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a'f, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
33
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Year and month
87. General im- 88. Merchandi.se
ports, total
trade balance'
(series 86 minus
series 87)
1963
January* .........
February
March
April
May
June
J U |y
August
September
October
November ....,..,
December
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1,099.9
1,510.4
1,484-7
1,414-4
1,416.2
1,430.9
1,449.6
1,497.4
1,442.9
1,454-5
1,465.2
1,477.8
-112.6
+611,7
+484.4
+501.1
+480.6
+360.2
+391.5
+407.9
+542.6
+499-7
+490.6
+627.6
1,418.1
1,458.8
1,518.0
1,537.2
1,530.1
1,514.0
1,573.2
1,608.1
1,563.4
1,550*5
1,697.7
l,6U-9
+621.5
+599.0
+557.2
+523.8
+517.2
+562.5
+545.4
+491.7
+697.6
+605.9
+508.5
+784.2
1,192.7
1,599.6
1,861.0
1,832.9
1,789.0
1,829.5
1,741.1
•1,853.5
1,864.6
1,884.6
1,951.9
1,892.4
+21,9
-0.8
+893.8
+546.7
+471.2
+400.7
+514.4
+479.1
+459.5
+457.0
+456.3
+463.4
1,935-5
1,992.9
2,072.7
2,138.2
2,070.2
2,114-9
2,206.8 '
2,148.1
(NA)
+313.1
+341.9
r+521.5
+193.0
r+294-1
+370.9
r+253.7
+312.4
(MA)'
89. Excess of receipts (+) or pay- 81. Index of con- 94. Index of construction conments (-) in U.S. balance of payments sumer prices
tracts, value .
a. Liquidity
b. Official
settlements
balance basis
basis
(Mil. dol.)
(1957-59=
100)
(Mil.dol.)
-1,218
-1,081
-1,114
-871
-200
0
-138
-92
(1957-59=
100)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(Bit. dol.)
106.1
106.1
106.2
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7
121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148
45.06
45.74
46.68
47.53
47.86
47.28.
46.74
46.70
47.07
47.17
47.08
46.68
107.8
107.7
107.8
108.0
108.1
108.1
108.1
108.2'
108.3
108.4
108.6
108.9
147
143
140
138
138
138
140
121
131
136
143
154
47.07
47.64
47.80
48.84
49.22
50.04
51.30
51.37
52.14
53.14
109.0
109.0
109.1
109.5
109.9
110.2
110.0
110.0
110.1
110.3
110.6
111.0
137
140
141
152
145
139
149
139
147
147
141
153
54.28
55.09
55.53
56.37
56.88
57.45
57.83
58.15
59.38
60.66
61.44
62.53
111.0
111.7
112.1
112.6
112.8
113.0
113.1
113.8
114.1
152
157
158
161
156
147
147
139
(NA)
63.80
65.11
66.76
68.25
69.61
71.31
r72.65r73.24
p74-68
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing^
(Bil.dol.)
S'.B'B
9)38
10.05
...
11.02
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
-248
-144
-552
-326
-617
-1,381
-231
-845
53. a
53.96
...
12.08
13^23
...
14^54
14. *97
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
-697
+226
-618
+239
...
-534
+232
-332
-1,158
-556
-246
15! 66
17!o5
isir?
19." 48
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
-157
r-183
(NA)
(NA)
20.34
P21.89
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those tnat appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not avaifoble.
x
The data from 1961 on have been adjusted to reflect a change in the seasonal adjustment of appropriations for the petroleum
and coal products industry and a change in the reporting basis of nonelectrical machinery. These revisions do not materially
affect comparability with the data before 1961. (See NICB publication, Investment Statistics—Capital, Appropriations: First
Quarter 1965.)
bed
BASIC DATA
OCTOBER 7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
International Comparisons
Year and month
1963
47, United
123. Canada,
States, index of index of indusindustrial produc- trial production
tion
(1957-59=
100)
January
February
March
April
May
June
Julv
August
September
October
November. ........
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, "
June
July
August
September
October
November.
December
1965
January
(1957-59=
100)
120
121
122
123
124.
126
126
125
126
126
126
127
128
128
131
132
132
133
134,
134
132
135
138
139
1 QQ
March
April
May
June
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
121. OECD, 1
European countries, index of
industrial
production
125. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production
126. France,
index of industrial production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
120
121
122
122
123
123
121
123
125
126
128
131
110
133
123
123
123
134
133
135
133
133
134
135
135
136
139
140
129
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
111
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
120
121
121
124
123
123
122
123
123
127
128
129
134
135
136
136
133
139
134
136
136
138
140
139
139
139
140
139
141
139
138
137
140
143
143
143
142
144
145
140
150
143
147
145
145
149
149
149
140
139
139
141
140
141
132
129
136
137
136
138
132
141
142
142
138
r!46
156
137
T-l / A
1 55
1 3Q
rl / /
1/9
1-14,6
1-14,8
1-148
1-148
rl4,9
154
154
155
151
r!55 '
155
156
154
154
139
140
I /Q
128
128
14.2
142
1/3
144
144
144
145
146
149
129
143
p!58
127
125
116
129
133
134
129
1 pQ
142
144
147
148
149
151
153
153
155
156
156
156
L
129
128
132
133
130
1/1
150
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
127
126
127
130
131
132
132
132
142
1/1
141
'
rod)
156
p!55
(NA)
128
130
129
128
130
130
131
131
130
133
131
130
128
p!31
(NA)
rl49
r!50
rl50
150
r!51
r!51
r!53
r!53
r!52
r!53
p!53
(NA)
156
155
160
160
157
rl6l
158
P154
(NA)
139
142
144
144
144147
1-14,7
150
146
149
151
150
150
153
154
P154
(NA)
127. Italy, index 128. Japan, index
of industrial
of industrial
production
production
(1957-59=
100)
158
(1957-59=
100)
179
155
161
165
165
166
163
166
171
171
173
170
184
184
191
190
191
203
202
172
169
173
168
166
164
166
156
165
166
168
168
219
224
166
169
166
169
175
176
178
176
245
238
178
•245
242
179
184
183
185
185
188
189
r!96
196
p!95
(NA)
207
211
214
217
224
226
228
233
232
232
239
241
237
242
245
242
236
246
242
240
244
247
256
252
256
260
260
267
r273
p277
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA1', not available.
1
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
35
Section TWO
\ \
charts and tables
DISTRIBUTION OF 'HIGHS' FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—21 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—77 incfusfries
Pro/ifs—700 companies
SfocJc prices—80 industries
Industrial materials prices—73 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—23 industries
Retail sales—24 types of stores
Net sales—800 companies
New orders—-400 companies
Cascadings—19 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—22 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
37
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 7966
OCCff
DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
Business cycle peak
Current expansion
June
1966
July
1966
Nov.
1948
Sept.
1966
Aug.
1966
July
1953
May
1960
July
1957
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
5
5
1
4
4
2
5
3
4
4
1
4
2
3
....."...
4
1
4
4
1
3
2
2
3
i
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
24
12
24
12
4
1
3
1
2
1
1
2
1
15
"4
24
16
2
1
2
3
24
0
24
0
"2
1
2
16
6
24
12
9
1
5
1
2
0
21
5
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
1
2
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
2
1
3
1
1
1
1
1
3
4
7
1
7
1
1
7
4
5
11
64
11
64
11
64
11
45
Apr.
1953
Aug.
1948
Apr.
1957
1
3
**3
1
2
3
"3
3
1
4
'*2
3
11
27
' 11
36
11
27
11
0
6th month before business cycle peak
3d month before business cycle peak
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
"i
i
1
2
Jan.
1953
May
1948
Feb.
1960
Nov.
1959
Jan,
1957
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
4
13
2
,.
'*4
4
'*2
2
5
1
"i
2
2
1
1
2
5
21
21
5
13
2
1
2
1
2
3
1
9
l
1
1
1
4
1
2
3
7
"5
2
"3
24
0
24
0
2
15
21
33
18
2
i
2
6
7
3
2
2
"i
2
1
24
0
24
4
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
2
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
1
2
1
1
1
2
"i
1
"l
1
1
2
6
11
55
i
"i
1
5
4
3
2
'*4
5
5
3
6
'*4
11
36
11
18
11
45
11
45
11
55
11
36
3
4
4
2
1
1
3
11
27
NOTE: AM quarterly series and 2 monthly series (series 15, a leading indicator, and series 40, a roughly coincident indicator) are omitted from the distribution.
*4 series were not available.
2
1 series was not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and such peaks
were disregarded in this distribution.
38
beef
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 7966
DIFFUSION INDEXES
CHART
FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
Percent
DlJAvg. workweek] prod, wkrs., mfg.-21 Indus.
)6. New orders, dur. goods i
—
approved capital ap
(»~*-.3-Q span,
t— — 1-0 span)
D34.|| Profits, FNCB f NY, percent reporting
L.___,=_jjMgner Pr°'its-/00 ^cosi Q.Q spjm)
Industrial materials prices-13 Indus, m
ial claim, State unempl. insur.-47 an
39
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 1966
bed
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Percent
. Empli>yees in nonagr. establi ;hments- 30 Indus.
(6-m0. span —
1-mo. spa
, ...)
i
4. Sales' of retail stores-J24 types of
*—
l[
1'
(9-mjo. span!—
i
.
!
1-imp. spaji
—)
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 1966
CHART
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Percent
Carloadings-19 mfrd. comn
Q span
Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows
Series number and
date of survey
D35.D36 (July 1966)
D48 (Sept. 1966)
061 (Aug. 1966)
ujMiiilf.
Actual
2d Q 1965-2d Q 1966
4thQ 1964-4 thQ 1965
1st Ql966-2ndQ 1966
Anticipated
4th Q 1965-4th Q 1966
4th Q1965-<tthQ 1966
3d Q 1966-4thQ 1966
kyyyyyyyy.i
41
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 7966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
NBER Leading Indicators
Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
Year and month
1-month span
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December . . .
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October. ......
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October.
November
December
9-month span
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
73. 8
40.5
52.4
14.3
83.3
66.7
61.9
45.2
71.4
50.0
33.3
64.3
59.5
42.9
90.5
69.0
81.0
78.6
71.4
69.0
57.1
61.9
57.1
78.6
63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5
88.9
69.4
66.7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8
0.0
85.7
47.6
78.6
31.0
31.0
69.0
73-8
14-3
61.9
69-0
90.5
69.0
52.4
61.9
81.0
50.0
85.7
78.6
92.9
85.7
88.1
95.2
57.1
55.6
44-4
58.3
61.1
44.4
50.0
63.9
40.3
54.2
58.3
55.6
68.1
76.4
83-3
80.6
75.0
72.2
58.3
63.9
83.3
72.2
63-9
61.1
68.1
61.9
57.1
76.2
19.0
81.0
28.6
52.4
59.5
40.5
71.4
81.0
54.8
83.3
81.0
78.6
61.9
47/6
54-8
71.4
6^.3
81.0
95-2
92.9
83.3
'48.6
38.9
63.9
50.0
44.4
58.3
59.7
41.7
61.1
61.1
55.6
76.4
77.8
75.0
77.8
68.1
66.7
68.1
91.7
83.3
80.6
81.9
86.1
83.3
57.1
69-0
40.5
50.D
50.0
33.3
r21.4
66.7
P54-8
83.3
76.2
r31.0
r33.3
P40.5
30.6
50.0
84.7
41.7
50.0
75-0
75.0
66.7
r66.7
P52.8
OIL Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)1
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
47
53
*59
'53
53
'65
• ••
65
...
•.•
53
***
...
56
*53
32
• ••
• **
*76
76
*71
•. .
*44
. *.
59
76
.. *
• ••
71
*76
...
53
*82
59
71
65
p76
P47
65
(NA)
51.4
r50.0
r59.7
P40.3
(NA)
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
The data from 1961 on have been adjusted to reflect a change in the seasonal adjustment of appropriations for the petroleum
and coal products industry and a change in the reporting basis of nonelectrical machinery.
These revisions do not materially
affect comparability with the data before 1961. (See NICB publication. Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First
Quarter 1965.)
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
42 Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
034. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
(around 700 corporations)
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (80 industries)*
1-quarter span
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, J
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
! '
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1-month span
50
59
;...
*56
55
57
...
*60
...
*57
*56
55
...
59
57
'62
(NA)
'
9-month span
1-month span
9-month span
95.0
95.0
98.7
95.0
89.1 •
84.6
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
84.4
61.5
46.2
50.0
46.2
46.2
69.2
46,2
38.5
69.2
69.2
50.0
57.7
61.5
69.2
61.5
69.2
65.4
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
76.9
34.0
89.4
31.9
47.9
46.8
68.1
44-7
44.7
44-7
59.6
40.4
23.4
44.7
66.0
72.3
48.9
63.8
80.9
46.8
31.9
85.1
60.6
53.2
73.4
74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
59.6
24-0
83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
81.8
68.8
65.6
75.3
76.6
76.6
53.8
53.8
46.2
65.4
30.8
53.8
46.2
76.9
69.2
73.1
61.5
38.5
61.5
69.2
69.2
76.9
76.9
80.8
84.6
76.9
69.2
69.2
76.9
69.2
89.4
27.7
57.4
77.7
48.9
48.9
63.8
51.1
53.2
34.0
31.9
83.0
73.4
72.3
70.2
74.5
89.4
60.6
61.7
89.4
61.7
70.2
74.5
72.3
92.2
8^.8
64-3
70.8
66.9
0.0
80.5
58.4
51.9
58.4
72.7
67.5
61.0
59.1
63.6
60.4
67.5
70.1
53.8
30.8
69.2
76.9
53.8
57.7
46.2
42.3
50.0
15-4
34.6
61.5
69.2
76.9
61.5
69.2
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
46.2
38.5
53.8
24.5
57.4
66.0
61.7
59.6
51.1
34-0
38.3
78.7
57.4
44.7
51.1
78.7
78.7
59.666.0
61.7
78.7
80.9
87.2
70.2
62.8
91.5
95.7
51.9
43.5
37.7
22.1
11.7
61.5
76.9
46.2
30.8
42.3
46.2
61.5
26.9
0.0
3
19,2
53.8
61.5
61.5
53.8
30.8
3
15.4
38.3
44.7
83.0
53.2
45. 7
57.4
17.0
72.3
80.9
91.5
74.5
44-7
68.1
76.6
79.9
81.2
66.9
70.1
57.1
'60
1-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs;
week including.the 12th (47 areas)
97.5
78.7
43.7
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44-9
44-9
68.4
24.7
55
...
9-month span
D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
74.0
48.7
14-3
63.6
3.9
23.4
^8.3
6.5
3,9
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19 which requires no
adjustment and D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
lj
rhe diffusion index is based on 82 components through February 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963; on 79
components, September 1963 to March 1964; on 78 components, April 1964 to November 1964; and on 77 components thereafter.
*Average for October 18, 19, and 20.
43
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
D41. Number of employees in
nonagricultural establishments
(30 industries)
Year and month
1-month span
6-month span
65.0
41.7
73.3
75.0
76.7
56.7
73.3
53.3
55.0
73.3
45.0
66.7
60.0
66.7
68.3
65.0
68.3
68.3
66.7
51.7
55.0
53.3
65.0
70.0
45.0
75.0
73.3
68.3
65.0
73.3
63.3
65.0
83.3
61.7
86.7
73.3
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October.
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
ftlarch
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
:::.:
July
August
September
October
November
December
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)1
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(23 manufacturing industries)
6-month span
1-month span
9-month span
79.2
66.7
83-3
54-2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1
83.3
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
83.3
91.7
77.1
79.2
77.1
83.3
85.4
50.0
54-2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54-2
77.1
70.8
79.2
85v4
77.1
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.8
91.7
83.3
77.1
41.3
41.3
41.3
47.8
58.7
73.9
50.0
58.7
52.2
69.6
63.0
71.7
32.6
47.8
58.7
60.9
63.0
69.6
71.7
78.3
71.7
69.6
67.4
82.6
68.3
70.0
73.3
83.3
78.3
76.7
76.7
93.3
91-7
80.0
91.7
91-7
62.5
75.0
75.0
87.5
66.7
62.5
83.3
64.6
45.8
68.8
79.2
81.2
91.7
95.8
87.5
91.7
87.5
89.6
70.8
70.8
87.5
79.2
91.7
91.7
43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
66.7
66.7
39.1
71.7
34.8
78.3
56.5
60.9
79.2
100.0
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
73.9
78.3
73.9
76.1
54.3
78.3
63.0
69.6
52.2
71.7
34.8
34.8
69.6
65.2
60.9
56.5
56.5
60.9
69.6
69.6
69.6
56.5
56.5
56.5
60,9
58.7
60.9
69.6
78.3
82.6
73.3
70.0
86.7
63.3
63.3
88.3
88.3
70.0
71.7
88.3
93.3
86.7
81.7
78.3
80.0
80.0
81.7
75.0
88.3
91.7
93.3
90.0
95.0
93.3
66.7
66.7
79.2
58.3
70.8
81.2
81.2
66.7
52.1
75.0
83.3
91.7
83.3
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
66.7
87.5
87.5
87.5
87.5
87.5
100.0
63.0
69.6
30.4
54.3
87.0
43.5
80.4
47.8
73.9
73.9
78.3
37.0
80.4
87.0
87.0
73.9
87.0
87.0
95.7
91.3
95.7
95.7
95.7
91.3
63.0
60.9
67.4
67.4
60.9
60.9
60.9
54-3
52.2
52.2
69.6
73.9
76.1
80.4
82.6
76.1
67.4
69.6
60.9
60;9
71.7
73.9
87.0
89.1
85.0
85.0
91.7
73.3
76.7
91.7
r48.3
r68.3
P28.3
95.0
91.7
86.7
r85-0
r76.7
P71.7
70.8
79.2
85.4
66.7
62.5
r89.6
r41.7
r62.5
P45.8
95.8
91.7
87.5
r70.8
r83.3
p66.7
71.7
69.6
60.9
43.5
30.4
95.7 ,
r47.8
60.9
P41.3
82.6
84.8
82.6
r78.3
P82.6
63.0
80.4
71.7
73.9
71.7
73.9
78.3
r52.2
P39.1
89.1
95.7
89.1
95.7
91.3
p80.4
1-montK span
1-month span
6 -month span
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on
the. 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed.on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for the indexes shown.
The V indicates revised; "p" preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
The diffusion index is based on 24 components through June 1964, and on 23 components thereafter.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
44
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
OCTOBER
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1966
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Year and month
D35, Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies)
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies)
D48. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups)
D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (16 industries)
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
1-quarter span
Actual
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
*76
* ••
Anticipated
Anticipated
Actual
Actual
73.7
Anticipated
Change in
total (000)
*80
77
*76
*80
*76
*76
*82
*80
78.9
78.9
*+z
*82
'sZ
68.4
73.7
-60
68*.Z
r-9
78 [9
Anticipated
40.6
50.0
65 .*6
75.0
75^0
71.9
+39
+ZZ
***
*82
Actual
75^0
1964
January
February
March
April
May
; "
June
*83
*87
'sZ
84.2
82
*86
"si
73.7
*83
*87
'sZ
52.6
*88
50.0
62)5
5o!o
84-4
75.0
96.9
•.*
68*.8
56.2
65.6
75^0
68*.8
+41
July
August
September
October
November
December
71.9
89 \5
*85
52.6
*90
"sZ
63.2 ;
84.2
* ••
88
*sZ
63^2
84.2
+22
(NA)
73.7
* *•
+28
89^5
+18
+47
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
.
*
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
*90 '
*88
*88
*88
...
...
90
*91
'SB
."
H-25
8?!5
88
(NA)
.* .
(NA)
*90
84.2
78.*9
81.2
sZ.'Z
81.2
62.5
84-4
71.9
r+20
(NA)
75^0
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D6l; other indexes, based on 4-quarter spans (same quarter a year ago), require
no seasonal adjustment. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
45
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND
OCTOBER 1966
bed
COMPONENTS
Basic Data
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
May
June
July1"
Aug.
Sept.p
Average weekly hours
01. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING^
(21 industry components)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products. . . ,
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
.
....
41.1
41.0
41.2
41.4
41.3
41-5
41-3
41.0
r41-4
41-4
42.1
40.7
41-4
41-9
42.1
42.0
40.6
41.1
42.0
42-4
41.1
42.4
'41-5
41.7
41.9
41.8
41.7
41.6
42.2
42.4
41.2
41.7
42.2
41.2
42.3
42.1
40.5
41-8
41-9
42.0
42.3
42.7
40.6
41.0
41.5
41.6
42.1
43.2
40.7
42.1
41.6
39.9
43.5
41.0
42.8
43.7
41.2
42.9
41.7
40.2
43.8
41-4
43-0
41.7
40.2
43.8
41.2
42.3
42.0
40.1
43.3
40.9
42.1
41.7
39.7
r42.2
r40-5
r4l.5
r41.7
r42.4
42.2
r43.8
r41.2
r43.2
r41.6
r39.9
42.8
40.2
41.3
42.0
42.7
42.5
42.8
40.8
42.5
41.4
40.0
42.4
41-4
42.0
41.8
42.2
42-4
43.8
41-3
42.2
44.3
41.4
4^.8
42.0
40.0
41.1
37.7
41.8
36.2
43.0
40.8
38.1
41.8
36.1
43.0
41-1
37.7
41.8
36. A
43.3
38.6
41,8
42.5
42.0
37.9
38.7
42.1
42.5
41.7
38.3
38.5
41.9
42.5
42.3
38.5
41-1
37.9
41-9
36.5
43.7
38.6
42.0
42.4
42.4
38.6
41.1
37.8
42.0
36.4
43.5
38.7
42.0
42.0
42.3
38.4
41.0
38.0
42.2
36.5
43.4
39.0
42.0
42.5
41.7
38.7
41.3
37.9
41.7
36.2
43.4
39.0
42.0
42.4
41-5
38.3
r41.0
38.3
41-9
r36.3
43.3
39.0
r42.0
r41-9
r41.8
r38.6
41-0
38.0
41.9
35-4
43-5
39.0
41.8
41.6
42/2
38.4
41.5
a. 9
a. 8
40.0
•43.0
41.3
42.3
42.4
40.3
40.9
38.5
42.2
36.5
43.7
38.7
a. 9
42.5
42.1
39-0
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(36 industry components)
21,509
22,163
All durable goods industries
Primary metals,.,
2,908
3,119
Blastfurnaces, steel mills ... .
1,276
1,465
Nonferrous metals .
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
Fabricated metal products
2,013
1,974
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products . .
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
3,318
3,315
Steam engines and turbines*
242
\
283
Internal combustion engines *
22,425
22,389
23,403
24,276
24,593
3,148
1,451
3,392
3,684
4,305
2,331
2,227
r3,794
pi, 906
3,933
1,854
4,109
2,173
4,106
1,635
2,050
2,213
2,335
2,237
2,163
2,231
P2,122
(NA)
3,349
3,396
3,532
3,553
3,609
3,426
p3,768
(NA)
157
232
316
254
329
266
P410
(NA)
596
309
620
229
675
279
660
277
570
264
705
263
617
297
646
2U
p646
p320
(NA)
(NA)
250
248
259
258
278
251
251
343
p258
(NA)
Construction, mining, and material handling*. .
Metalworking machinery *
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
."
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *
(NA)
...
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
p = preliminary
r = revised
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
24,371 r23,401 24,236
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
NA«Not available.
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change
9-month spans
1-month spans
1966
1965
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
£
0
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(21 industry components)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products ....
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products ..',.
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products .
Petroleum and related products.
Rubber and plastic products.. <
Leather and leather products ..
69 40
50
50 33
21
0
0
0
-
-
o
o
o
-
o
+
o
-
-
o
+
o
o
-
o
o
o
67 55
+
o
o
+
-
+
+
+
+ 'o
-
+
+
o
o
-
+
+
0
0
-
O
-
+
o
o
o
-
0
+
+
o
o
+
+
-
+
0
0
o
-
-
o
64 81 95 93 83 83 76 31 33 40
0
+.
+
+
+
+
+
-H
+
+
0
+
+
-
-0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-I0
0
+
-
-
-
-0
0
-
-
0
0
0
-
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(36 industry components)
Percent rising
All durable goods industries
'rimary metals:
Blastfurnaces, steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
76
31
50 85 42
50
51
50 60
-
o
40
83 81 82 86 83 75 75 67 67 53
-
r
abricated metal products:
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire productsOther fabricated metal products
•"•
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*.
Internal combustion engines *
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling *.
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *
,
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.
-
o
-
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
47
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
OCTOBER J966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Dec.
Nov.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.1
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES2- Continued
3,000
Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment*
\
690
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
655
Communication equipmentt
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
•
6,141
3,466
3,487
736
844
783
699
579.
672
742
r890
5,972
6,165
6,488
6,902
r6,639
2,995
2,983
3,201
622
653
655
733
577
6,853
6,920
3,211
"
r3,744 P3,541
p800
r789
(NA)
(NA)
P757
(NA)
r5,931 p6,824
Airrraft nartet
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
.
Instruments total
Lumber, total
Furniture total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES3
(13 industrial materials components)
Index: 1957-59 = 100
115.2
Industrial materials price index
114.8
115-0
115*5
117.1
118.3
118.4
118.8
111.7
108.9
105.5
Dollars
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
Zinc(lb.)
Burlap (yd,)
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd ) average.
Wool tops (Ib,)
Hides (Ib )
Rosin (100 Ib )
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow (Ib )
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES2
(23 retail store components)
;
All retail sales
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise).
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
-
.466
.497
.444
.072
.074
.071
31.469 29.918 29.872
1.911 1.930
1.874
.150
.150
.149
.160
.148
.158
.302
.301
.303
.210
.211
.211
1.712
1.743
1.74V
.186
.167
.162
11.581 11.523 11.488
.238
.250
.254
.074
.074
.074
.506
.070
33.188
1.748
.586
.475
.073
.075
34.304 30.384
1.730
1.678
.148
.163
.298
.208
1.725
.180
.167
11.512 11.558
.247
.234
.072
.074
.149
.156
.299
.210
1.702
.151
.163
.291
.217
1.811
.212
11.103
.235
.072
.629
.075
31.556
1.611
.152
.161
.291
,218
1.794
.236
11.100
.234
.072
.462
.502
.457
.623
.072
.064
.075
.074
34-264 30.173 29.792 29-442
1.570
1.502
1.518
1.619
.151
.150
.150
.151
.156
.162
.139
.144
.222
.222
.222
.292
.217
.211
.209
.214
1.626
1.791
1.824
1.751
.227
.189
.159
.214
11.022 11.012 10.916 10.872
.227
.239
.239
.215
.059
.073
.075
.074
Millions of dollars
23,585
5,078
23,753
5,097
1,807
1,961
211
448
1,814
1,982
223
452
271
278
24,194 24,647
5,271
5,235
24,816
5,432
24,475
5,431
1,825
1,978
220
459
1,810
2,087
235
469
1,875
2,019
209
433
1,910
2,113
216
467
1,967
2,214
219
487
276
280
269
283
295
25,394 r25,362 r25,657 P25,554
(NA)
5,472 r5,436 P5,458
rl,996 pl,995
r2,201 p2,!86
p219
234
1-48!
P4#4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
P320
(NA)
r301
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the.source agency.
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
plus ordnance comprise series 99.
NA = Not available.
p = preliminary.
r = revised.
Average for October 18, 19, and 20.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Series components are seasonally adjusted try the Bureau of the Census.
page 2.) Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
48
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
fThese indusl
2
3
(See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments",
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER ,966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS— Continued
Directions of Change— Continued
1-month spans
1965
9-month spans
1965
1966
1966
Diffusion index title and components
S « § | ? t 1 f f I g
£ -1 £ 1 t S 1 1 1 1 1
£ . & ± j h i - ? i g
**&>•£.
£ ' £ ' « £ . £ 3 = 3 ^ 3 8 1 ^ | s fillip
06. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES- Continued
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment *
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV t
Communication equipment
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
Fransportation equipment:
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraft t
Aircraft parts t
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
nstruments, total '
Lumber, total
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Dther durable goods, total
023. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES2
(13 industrial materials components)
Percent rising
Industrial materials price index
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib )
Steel scrap (ton)
Fin(lb.)
Zinc(lb)
Burlap (yd )
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
_
+
+
_
+ - +
_ *
__
+ _
+
+
+
+
_
_
_
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
- • +
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
- _ -
+
--
+
+
+
_ _
62
«
+
_
--
-
62 77 46
+
--
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-f
+
+
-
-
+
+
-
-+
+ --
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
---
"
-
-
-
+ +
+
+
-
+
__
-
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ +
- + +
+ +
• + + +
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
_
_
_
+
+
+
+
+
- »
+
+
+
+
_ _
62 27
0 19
^6 ^6 ^6 38 54. 54 62 62 54 31 15
+ + + + + + + + - - -
+
---
--+
+
---
+
--
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
•+
+
+
- o o
+
31 42 46
+
+
+•
+
+
+
+
+
+
-0
---
+
+
+
+
+
+
4+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
Pntffin (\\\ \ 1 ^-rnnrl/ot auomna
Print cloth (yd ) average
ftlool tops(lb)
Hides (Ib)
Rosin (100 Ib)
Rubber (Ib)
Fallow Clh }
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES
(23 retail store components)
Percent rising
All retail sales
Grocery stores
3ther food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise) . .
i/ariety stores
.
Dther general merchandise stores
Men's and bovs' wear stores
;
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
-
-
-
+
+
+
-
-
-
-
+
44
30
96
37
72
70
61
+
+
+
+
+
__
+
+
-
0
+
+
+
--
_
+
o
-
+
_
-
48
0 - -
61
£L
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
--- +
+
-
91
96 96 96 91 83
85 83 78 83
+
+•
+
+
-.
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ +
+ +
+•+
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
- '
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
:omprise series 24.
tThese industries plus ordnance comprise series 99.
+
+
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
^-Average for October 18, 19, and 20.
Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
49
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
OCTOBER 7966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Sept
Aug.
May
Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
Julyr
June
Aug.p
Sept.
Millions of dollars
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumberyards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
Jewelry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
500
508
535
566
560
578
583
584
598
(NA)
208
706
353
768
234
213
716
389
765
237
220
749
380
775
246
227
756
366
819
255
214
735
378
825
245
232
734
372
752
238
241
746
397
769
237
228
771
429
764
243
236
781
411
770
240
(NA)
•(MA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
4,402
258
1,820
779
513
4,398
260
1,827
794
530
4,345
4,509
267
1,860
818
543
4,714
239
1,838
828
533
4,017
271
1,920
831
560
4,4-79
292
1,927
848
572
4,460
304
1,918
844
549
4,636
302
1,930
837
544
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
269
1,843
816
531
• •.
> :::
1965
Nov.
1966
1966
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
May
Mar.
Sept.p
Julyr
Aug.r
63,983
120
550
381
515
1,086
1,048
1,312
1,327
1,358
276
355
64,072
64,196
64,181
122
543
378
515
1,090
1,043 (
1,331
1,320
1,324
277
350
124
542
381
512
1,104
1,061
1,338
1,353
1,361
278
350
126
537
378
505
1,100
1,048
1,340
1,350
1,372
277
345
1,166
74
854
1,268
525
654
578
115
403
316
1,165
73
850
1,232
530
656
577
115
403
307
1,153
65
846
1,230
521
654
575
114
404
315
632
3,300
4,143
3,470
9,747
636
3,297
4,122
3,483
9,773
1,165
67
856
1,240
529
658
583
115
407
313
636
3,246
4,101
3,478
9,786
June
Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(30 industry components)
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade . . . ,
61,864
62,241
62,469
62,811
63,247
63,517
101
542
362
509
1,043
1,015
1,250
1,195
1,284
255
349
100
549
367
516
1,044
1,020
1,256
1,216
1,290
258
357
106
557
370
525
1,051
1,029
1,262
1,233
1,296
261
343
110
556
372
520
1,055
1,039
1,274
1,260
1,323
266
343
112
563
375
525
1,058
1,047
1,278
1,268
1,344
269
351
118
546
379
516
1,070
1,046
1,299
1,308
1,351
273
355
1,182
72
835
1,220
506
633
551
113
379
310
1,163
73
838
1,229
509
633
553
113
384
311
1,163
73
842
1,204
512
639
555
113
386
313
1,169
73
843
1,231
514
641
558
113
387
315
631
3,234
4,080
3,367
9,513
633
3,334
4,083
3,378
9,563
635
3,318
4,091
3,391
9,618
634
3,323
4,105
3,404
9,641
1,174
74
846
1,230
515
642
560
112
390
315
637
3,419
4,109
3,422
9,663
1,154
73
850
1,257
519
648
564
113
396
319
628
3,238
4,132
3,445
9,719
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
NA = Not available
p = preliminary
r = revised
633
3,223
4,158
3,460
9,800
feed
ocroB« /966
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
5
0
<u
0
0
•z.
_o
O>
U_
c:
CD
TO
0.
<t
<5
c
=
J*
>•>
Z3
<f.
£
~i
—i
+
+
+
+
O
+
4
03
OJ
:s
U_
O-
>%
QO
"o.
3
%
=?
^
5
D£
£
Q
TO
^
1966
£
=3
* 3i1 ? £• _,
2
>? 1
C/3
1 J J3-» —=3»
s
ro
(j_
~?
."
C
:
o.
?! £
_-
J
CD
0
Z
O>
CO
0
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued
+
+
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture, home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
Jewelry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
+
4
+
•
0
+
4
+
+
4
4
4
4
+
+
+
-
-
-
4
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
4
4
+
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
+
+
4
+
0
+
+
0
+
+
+
4
4
4
4
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
4
4
4
4
-
-
+
4
4
4
4
+
-
-
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
+
+
+
+
4
4
4
4
+
4
4
4
4
u
£
0
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
(30 industry components)
Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products - '
Machinery
Electrical equipment •
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products • •
Mining
....;
Contract construction . . . .
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade . .•
Retail trade
4 = rising; o = unchanged;
+
+
+
.
1965
o>
Ll_
85 92
+ +
s
+
+.
+
,+
+
+
+
J
+
+
4
O
+
0
0
0
+
~z
=
DO
g-
GO
>N
^
do
3
5
+
+
+
+
4
4
4
0
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
3-
:>-,
3
73 77 92 48 68 28
+ + + + +
+
+
c;
3
+
+
• .
C
TO
i
jb 3cci
+
+
+
-0
<D
U_
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
+
+
+
+
+
4
4
4
o
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
4
Z
0
i
c.
3
—i
1966
c
TO
-» .
-Q
OJ
U_
i
^
2
! ?
95
92
87
85
77
12
+
+
4
4
4
+
4
+
4
-
4
-
4
+
4
+
4
4
+
-
+
+
4
+
+
4
+
_
+
+
+
+
4
4
4
4
-3
r g
t
°
<C
ex
90
95
93
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
+
4
+
_
+
-
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
+
+
4
4
+
+
4
4
+
+
4
+
+
-
4
4
4
+
4
4
o
4
4
+
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
+
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
+
+
+
4
4
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
4
4
+
+
+
O
+
+
O
+
+
4
+
O
+
+
O
+
+
4
4
4 •
4
4
4
+
4
p
4
4
4
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
4
-
4
4
+
4
+
4
4
4
4
+
+
4
4
4
+
+
4
+
+
+
4
+
+
0
+
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
4
o
+
+
0
0
s
+
0
4
«
2=
=3
do
-t
93
±
1I 2(5
1 -5 £ S
^
0
+
+
+
4
+
+
0
+
o
+
+
+
+
O
0
+
+
+
+
+
6-month spans
CD
:>
+
+
1966
1965
0
+
1-month spans
Jj
4
4
+
+
• •o8
4
4
0
o
+
+
4
+
O
0
0
O
- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
51
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 7966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1966
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
May
July
Aug.
Sept.p
3,090
9,549
2,571
8,314
r3,095
r9,609
2,601
r8,328
3,100
r9,641
r2,6lO
r8,330
3,091
9,642
2,616
8,363
158.2
June
Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS^Con.
Finance insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
3,0^5
9,282
2,400
7,920
3,049
9,329
2,397
7,983
3,052
9,363
2,423
8,012
3,051
9,410
2,451
8,070
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(24 industry components)
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods beverages and tobacco
Tobacco products
Minerals:
Qoal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal stone and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
3,064
9,463
2,477
8,153
3,076
9,515
2,523
8,239
Index: 1957-59=100
146.4
148.7
150.2
151.9
153.4
155.2
156.5
r!57.2
158.3
119.4
153.6
126.5
156.3
130.8
157.0
133.6
160.7
141-4
161.4
146.5
162.3
r!47.6
rl62.3
149.5
rl6l.8
r!48.7
rl6l.7
166 [9
168.4
157.3
159.0
169.2
172.8
160.7
162.2
171.9
177.6
163.1
166.0
174.4
179.8
163.2
169-4
174-0
178.8
165.8
171.9
177*7
184-5
165.8
176.4
rl80.3
186.5
167.1
176.5
r!84.7
rl87.6
rl66.0
r!77.0
r!87*6
r!92.8
rl66.5
176.7
135*5
119.1
137.6
125-4
139*4
125-6
141.4
126.5
143.0
129.3
140.3
122.7
r!41.0
122.9
r!38*5
rl!9.9
146*3
pllO.9
190
194
169
179
130
140
(NA)
162*6'
153.0
164.3
155.5
165 '.4
151.2
166! 8
155-3
168*8
156.8
173.8
159.5
174.6
159-3
rl69.7
r!57.2
r!74.7
r!57.3
173
156
139*4
147.2
110.1
140*3
148.5
113.9
140.1
146.9
111.7
140.7
148.3
110.1
140.7
147.3
111.4
143*4
149.9
112.1
r!44.0
r!52.0
rl!4.2
r!43*5
P149.8
plll.l
rl41.6
r!42.7
147*4
133-2
147*7
134-2
148*4
135-7
148*5
138.2
150.2
139.0
,178.5
126.1
181.6
180 '. 6
127.8
181.3
181.9
130.5
184.6
184-3
125.5
183.3
186*2
125.6
185.7
153*6
142.1
178.9
190.9
127.4
(NA)
154*1
144-1
r!79-8
r!92.2
127.7
(NA)
r!56.2
r!44.8
r!80.4
r!93.8
r!26.9
(NA)
125.0
118.9
125.3
117.1
126*0
119.6
127.0
126.7
127.7
126.8
126*2
117.9
127.1
122.7
r!28,5
pll6.5
pl54-4
145.5
1-184.4
P195.2
P128.3
(NA)
r!27.4
p!28.2
(NA)
142
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
147
(NA)
143
183
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
127
(NA)
(NA)
115.7
113.8
118.5
114-5
114-4
113-4
111.2
115.0
117.7
116.7
116.9
119.2
120.7
rl!9.3
120.8
rl!9.2
120.7
rl!9.5
114*. 2
133.2
120 '.6
138.2
133*4
135.5
130*8
135.6
134-5
137.1
133.6
127.5
134*2
133-3
r!34*6
r!33.7
p!34*7
P133.5
103.7
104.1
104-2
104-9
105.2
105.6
105.7
105.9
106.4
106.4
102.5
98.0
101.5
101.3
103.1
98.3
101.8
101.7
103-9
98.3
102.1
101.8
104.3
98.5
102.1
102.2
105.7
98.4
102.1
102.4
109.1
98.9
102.4
101.9
107.0
98.8
102.5
102.2
105-5
99.0
102.9
102.2
105.1
r99.1
102.8
102. 5
105.2
99.1
103.0
102.6
(NA)
(NA)
ii?
161
115
120
133
(NA)
(NA)
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING 2
(23 manufacturing industries)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables .......
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel . . . •
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
NA=Not available.
P = preliminary.
r * revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal Reserve
52 Bank of St. Louis
(See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments11, page 2.)
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBER 7966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1 -month spans
1965
6-month spans
1965
1966
1966
Diffusion index title and components
|j
Jji
"§
.g
o. ro" j|
-^
^
&
j»"Sl£.£'5^"3,£_^>
D4L NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS-Con.
Finance insurance real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
&>
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
O
+
^
-^
+
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(24 industry components)
Percent rising1.
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
92 71 79 85 67 62 90 42 62 46
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
0
-
--
-
+ + . + - + + + + + +
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
+
+
-f_
+
+
-l_
+
_ _ l _
+
"5
-^
=?
<
+
+
+
88
88
+
+
S*
cxj
+
t>
0
+
0
Z
+
OJ
J|
<D CO
0 - ^ U . S
+
+
+
+
71
83
67
+
+
+
+
+
88 100
96
92
88
+ +
--+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-i-
+
_i_
+
.
+
+
+
+
_
+
_
-
+
+
+
_
+
o
_ - N A
+
+ • +
+
+
+
+
. +
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
0
+
+
+
- - N A
+
-
-
+
+
-
+
- N A N A
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA
+ NANA
- N A N A
paper and products
Printing and publishing
+
+ - +
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
+•
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA
+ - +
- + N A
+ NA NA NA NA NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
- • +
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
-NA
- NA NA _ _
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
_
-
+
+
- + N A
+
- N A
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
74
63
80
72
+
+
+
+
O
+
O
+
-
+
+
+
+
00
+
+
+
+
+
- - -
+
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous . . . . .,
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING
(23 manufacturing industries)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
-»
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
>
.+
+
,
+
+
74
- N A
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
- -
-
N
--A
+
+
+
+ NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ NA
- - + N A
NA NA NA NA
+
+
+
+ NA
+
- NANA
+
72
74
78
52
39
+
+
+
+
O
-
+
+
O
+
+
-
+
0
+
+
'+
+
+
+
+
- - -
+ NA
N A
72 74 87 89 89 96 89 96 91 80
+ + + + + + + + + +
,
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ Arising; o = unchanged; - = fall ing. NA^Not available.
^he percent rising is based on 24 industry components. Where actual data for separate industries are not available , estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for
bhe current month are rounded.
53
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OCTOBe*
i966 bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
19 65
1966
1966
Diffusion index title and components
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
May
Mar.
June
July
Aug.r
SeptP
120.6
104.2
112.6
110.8
106.2
99.2
100,5
121.8
119.7
104.2
112.5
111.2
106.5
99.3
100.3
119.9
Index: 195 7-59 - 100
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE
PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING1-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
General purpose machinery and eouipment
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
54 Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
105.9
98.3
100.3
113.0
98.5
101.0
117.3
98.7
100.5
117.7
123.6
104.3
111.6
110.3
106.2
99.2
100.6
120.9
111.9
108.3
101.1
105.6
91.1
104.9
112.1
109.6
101.5
105.8
90.7
105.0
111.8
109.5
102.8
106.4
89.7
105.1
110.6
109-8
103.1
106.5
89.8
104.8
111.0
109.9
103.4
107.0
89.8
104.8
113.7
109.9
103.8
106.8
89.8
104.8
113.4
109.8
103.4
106:4
88.8
104,8
101.1
97.5
97.9
94-0
118.8
101.6
97.4
97.5
94-1
119.3
102.7
97.6
98.3
95.4
122.7
103.0
97.6
99.6
95.9
122.7
103.5
98.1
99.6
95.7
122.2
103.5
98.2
101.6
95.4
120.8
103.5
98.3
101.5
94-8
119.8
117.1
102.0
109.6
106.4
105.6
96.5
100.5
111.1
118.4
102.2
109.9
106.6
105.5
97.1
100.5
112.5
119.9
102.7
110.1
106.8
105.6
97.8
100.4
115.1
107.1
107.6
100.9
105- 4
92.6
104.. 1
109. a
107.9
100.9
105.5
91.9
104.3
109.5
108.3
100.7
105.6
91.4
104.7
100.8
97.5
98.0
93.1
113.3
100.9
97.7
97.7
93.4
1U.6
101,1
97.5
97.0
93.4
116.6
p = preliminary.
r= revised.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
x
122.4
103.8
121.0
123.3
104.1
111.4
109.9
106.0
117.8
101.9
109.9
106.3
105.3
96.^
100.5
112.9
103.4
110.6
107.3
105.7
111.0
109.3
1
(See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)
Basic data for components of diffusion index D19, Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks, and of diffusion index D5, Initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, are not available from the Census Bureau.
bed OCTOBER ,966
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
6-month spans
1-month spans
1965
Diffusion index title and components
1965
1966
o c . o ^ ^ ^ g . l ' w - s .
< i > T O
CD
:>
d-^b
o
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Fabricated nonstructural metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products . . .
Manmade fiber textile products
Chemicals and allied products
~3
o
+
+
j
+
^
c
+
+
O.
u
r
o
0
+
-
= 1 . ^ ^
i :k
^
+
+
TO
.
+
O
0
_^»
3
^
'Ao
^
3
O
+
+
0
+
+
+
f
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
0 . .
+
_
+
+
+
^*
^^
CZL
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
0
0
+
-
+
0
+
+
+
0
+
+
0
+
0
+
+
-
+
-
+
0
+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
O--
0
0
0 0
0
9-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1965
1966
1966
Q3
fc—
"
^
-
^
^
C
-
^
^
Q
.
S ^ £ 5 5 - ^ ^ ^ < : < ?
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES,
500 COMMON STOCKS*
(23 industry components)2
Percent rising 3 ...
Index of 500 stock prices
Coal bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Textile products
paper
Publ ishing
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters
C
i
O
C
6
D
57
74
+
+
(
±
49
Q
-6
<
D
J-
e
*L
O
Q
>,
.
T
£
O
14
64
4
23
38
-
+
-
+
+
^
3
6
3
00
3
A
o
ea
-^*
«
^*
C—
S | ^ f ? s ^ ^ * t
»!.»!.
T
S
59
+•
O
-
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
-t+
0
+
0
+
+
+
•1-
D T O
U. ..
S
-
+
+
i
C
-^
+
O
+
^
m
-
+
+
^
D
Q
+
+
+
6
O C
=
O
+
+
r a § - ^ ™ Q s ^ ^ < c ^
J>
O
0
-
+
+
2
-
+
+
+
+
"
-
+
0
S
t%
-
+
+
Ao
=
<C
-
0
+
-^.i
i»
" ^
^
-
+
+
«
^
-^
i - . ^ i ^ Q O - * -
+
+
0-
»-
s ^o -.
+
-
+
+
+
u-
+
+
-
0
.0
0 - < -
O
-
r-
—•
^
9
+
+
+
+
+
-
<•*
, S T O " C D
0
O
+
+
O
I
O
a
e
CD
-
--
Hides skins leather and leather products
j
™
1966
O
Q
<t
64
+
-
.
> ^ ^ > ^ e a
o ' S ^ L i - o
:
3
S
c
a
—»
5
"
—i
60 68 70
+ + +
H
-
-
5
Q
•<
j
O
O
t
D
e x > O S : Q
52 44 38 22 12
+
- - - -
-
-
-
-
-
-
--
„
Electric companies
: : : : : ! : : ::
_ . . _ + __ + _ +
Life insurance
+
-
+
-
-
-
+
+
+
-H
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
H
-
-
-
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling.
•"•Data are not seasonally adjusted.
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
[the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
J
on 77 components.
DigitizedBased
for FRASER
2
representing an additional 23 of
55
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
OCTOBER 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1965
1966
Diffusion index title and components
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS1
(26 area components)
Percent rising
47 labor market areas
Northeast region:
Buffalo (19)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson (20)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9).
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (18)
Milwaukee (15)
Minneapolis (13)
St Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (17) «
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (16)
Houston (14)
West region:
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle f 2fl
f f f | ? E f i f < t
II III f f l f t
51 38
87 70
45
83
53 46
57 17
+
+
+
—
+
+
-
+
+
- + - -
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
_
_
_
+
_
-
+
_
-
+
4*
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
—
+
+
81
+
+
+
+
-_
+
+
+
-_
+
+
_
+
_
+
+
_
__
+
_
+
+
_
72
+
+
_
4 . 4 .
---
+
-
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
_
+
„
+
_
+
+
_
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
--
--
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
- - - - -
_
-
+
-
+
_
-
+
+
-
+
+
--
--
+
-
--
+
--
+
--
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
--
+
-
+
--
+
- - - -
-
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
63 92 96 92
+
-
+
----
•
1966
+
w
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ + +
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
74 45 68 77
_
4 - 4
+
+
_
+
+
_
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
_
+
+
_
_
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
---
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
-O
--+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4 - 4 - -+
+
_
+
+
+
+
_
_l_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
,
+
_
_
_
+
--
+
+
---
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-_
-
+
+
+
_
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
_
+
+
+-
+
+
+
_
-+
+
+
_
-+
_
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
--
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
_
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
- = rising; o = unchanged; + = falling. The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises.
Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month.
•"-Series components
are seasonally adjusted by the
Bureau of the Census before the
direction of change is determined.
(Sec
"Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of
change are shown separately for only the 26 largest areas. The number in parentheses indicates the size rank for each labor
market area.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
56
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCD Technical Paper
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH, A STATISTICAL COMPENDIUM
Julius Shiskin
Chief Economic Statistician
Bureau of the Census
INTRODUCTION
theory of economic growth, and point up some of the
gaps in the statistical intelligence system.
The Census Bureau is issuing a new statistical report,
Long Term Economic Growth. This report is designed
to show, in convenient form, the principal annual economic
time series needed by students of economic growth. It
represents a response to the increasing interest in expanding economic welfare, both in developed and developing countries; the economic competition among countries
with different economic systems; and the establishment of
economic growth as a major policy objective of the U.S.
Government. It supplements many descriptive studies
and causal analyses on this subject that have been prepared in recent years. It is expected to simplify the
task of students in this field, whatever their explanations
of economic growth and standards for judging performance happen to be, by providing a broad base of information related to economic growth and relieving those
concerned with theoretical issues and economic policies
of a large part of the laborious task of compiling basic
data and making computations from them.
Limited resources and experience have confined this
first edition to those data most readily available. For
this reason and because of the large task of inspecting
and appraising all the series that could have been included, it is recognized that this issue will have to serve
as a working document to break the ground and set a
pattern for subsequent reports. The objective of this
paper is to describe this new report and invite suggestions
for improving it.
There is, at present, considerable uncertainty regarding the appropriate measures of economic growth, the
methods of compiling the measures, and the accuracy of
the historical records. While there is some agreement
about the factors which affect long-term economic growth,
there is less about their quantitative importance. In fact,
there is only one comprehensive series of estimates of
the quantitative importance of these factors—that by
Edward F. Denison. Denison's study has had a major
impact on investigations of economic growth, with one of
its many contributions being the demonstration of the
tenuousness of many of the estimates that are available
and the need for more basic information. Another major
objective of this publication, therefore, is to encourage
and facilitate the development of better estimates by
providing a convenient framework for such work and by
bringing the statistical gaps out into the open.
Thus we hope that this report will provide an information base that will facilitate judgments on economic
performance, aid in the formulation of economic policy
to accelerate growth, contribute to development of the
Our plan is to issue a revised edition in about a year.
Experience with similar new reports indicates that substantial changes may be expected as a result of suggestions made by those making practical uses of such
material.
We, therefore, welcome the comments and
criticisms of those who make use of our report. As in
the case of many other reports of the Bureau, we expect
future issues to be considerably different and more
useful.
Before discussing the new report itself, however, I
would like to make a few observations on the relations of
our seasonality and business cycle work to this new
"growth" report.
This paper was presented at the American Statistical Association meeting on Time Series, Los Angeles, Calif*,
August 18, 1966.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: During the past 2 years, the technical
work for the Long Term Economic Growth report has been
under the immediate supervision of Allan H* young who was
assisted by Gerald Donahoe, Norman Bakka, and Robert
Taylor. The early planning work was under the immediate
supervision of Samuel L* Brown who contributed substantially to the basic organization of the report* He was
assisted during this period
by James Hines and Judith
Faust* Mr* Young also contributed substantially in the
preparation of this paper, especially the part on Problems
of Measurement* Murray D* Dessel provided
valuable technical advice throughout* For the many other persons in
government agencies, private
research organizations, and
universities who contributed, see the acknowledgments to
Long Term Economic Growth*
57
THE CENSUS BUREAU PROGRAM FOR THE
ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS
The new statistical report on economic growth may be
considered as the third phase of our research and development work on economic fluctuations, conducted over a
period of more than 10 years. The first phase was the
development of computer programs for analyzing
seasonal, trading-day, and irregular fluctuations in
economic time series. The second phase was the development of a set of statistical tools, including Business
Cycle Developments, for analyzing intermediate fluctuations lasting from about 3 to 8 years. Each of these
three projects should be considered in relation to the
others, not as independent undertakings. As a result of
this continuing research program, the Census Bureau can
now provide facilities for studying nearly all types of
economic fluctuations in the United States.
The first project, our time series analysis programCensus Method II—is designed for the intensive study of
short-term movements. The latest variant of this program, X-ll, has greater generality and scope than any of
the earlier programs. It has a separate routine for
quarterly as well as monthly series, and for series with
negative and positive numbers as well as those with
positive numbers alone. The X-ll version not only
rheasures and adjusts for seasonal variations, but also
for trading-day variations. Further, it computes many
summary and analytical measures of the behavior of each
series and includes various techniques such as spectral
analysis, F-tests, and variance analysis for use in extending the scope of time-series studies.
The second project, our Business Cycle Developments
(BCD) report, permits the timely yet comprehensive study
of intermediate economic movements. This monthly
report brings together several hundred monthly and quarterly "economic indicator" series for the analysis of
short- term economic trends and prospects. The se
particular series have been selected, tested, and evaluated, after half a century of continuing research, as the
most useful and reliable for this purpose. The publication not only provides the basic data, but also various
charts and analytical tables to facilitate studies of
intermediate-term fluctuations. In addition, a timeseries punch-card file, a diffusion index program, and
a separate summary-measures program are available for
those who wish to carry on further research in business
cycle analysis.
The third and latest project is this "growth" report,
modeled after BCD, and designed specifically for the
study of long-term economic movements. Since the
remainder of this paper is concerned with the content of
this new report, I shall defer discussion of it for a few
moments. It is sufficient to say here that the experience
we have already had with the Census Method II seasonal
adjustment program and with BCD indicates that the new
report on economic growth will be widely used by government, business, and research organizations.
The capabilities that have been developed for this
"time-series analyzer facility" are available to the
public in various forms: (a) Periodic publication of the
basic data required for studies of economic fluctuations;
58
(b) published computer-generated charts and analytical
measures which present and summarize conveniently the
underlying trends of the basic data; (c) computer pro'grams
(written in a simplified computer language, Fortran IV)
which permit further analysis of the fluctuations; and (d)
data files in the form of punched cards and computer
tapes, which provide the statistical raw material for these
computer programs and publications.
Taken together, this "system" will help to improve and
extend the techniques used by economic analysts in their
study and understanding of economic fluctuations. This
system makes it possible for the academic or business
economist, who has a computer available, but not a
research staff or programers, to carry out extensive
research in the field of economic fluctuations.
PROBLEMS OF MEASUREMENT
Many conceptual and statistical problems beset the
measurement of economic growth and analysis of its
sources. Some of them are briefly reviewed below. The
purpose of this review is only to indicate the nature of
the problems and the many uncertainties that now surround
them. More comprehensive statements of these problems,
th^ alternative solutions and their implications, especially
for data compilation, appear in the references.1
Concepts for Judging Economic Growth
Economic growth is usually considered to be growth
in the output of the economy. Such growth can be measured in terms of output either on a total, a per capita, or
a per worker basis, with the choice depending on the
problem at hand. Alternatively, economic growth is
sometimes defined in terms of per capita consumption or
personal welfare. Another alternative view is in terms
of changes which take place in the economic and social
structure of a nation as it undergoes economic growth;
for example, the changes in the rate of population growth
and the amount of the labor force in agriculture which a
nation about to begin economic development may experience. All the above definitions are directed to the long
term, that is, to the changes or trends which occur over
several years, perhaps a decade or longer, and sometimes a century.
Definition and Measurement of Output
and Related Economic Processes
There are many problems in defining and measuring
total output and the other economic activities presented
in this report. Some of the principal ones concerning
For the most part, this review is based on more detailed discussions of the same problems in The Sources
of Economic Growth in the United States and the Alternatives Before Us* by Edward P. Denison, Supplementary
Paper No. 13, Committee for Economic Development* January 1^62, and "The Measurement of Aggregate Economic
Growth" by George Jaszi, Review of Economics and Statisticsi November 1961• Also9 see The Study of Economic
Growth by Solomon Fabricant9 Thirty-Ninth Annual Report,
National Bureau of Economic Research, pp. /-/J, May 1959,
and Six Lectures on Economic Growth by Simon Kuznets9 The
Free Press, 1959; and the additional references given in
the bibliography to the new Census Bureau publication.
total output are indicated below. Similar problems affect
many of the other types of measures presented in the
report.
All growth analysts consider real gross national
product, as distinguished from money gross national
product, as the appropriate measure of output. However,
money data are sometimes used as a proxy for data on
the physical volume of output because of the difficulties
of compiling "real" data, either directly or through price
deflation. For the most part, data on real output are
derived through price deflation. In many areas there is
a paucity of actual output data so that physical-volume
measures cannot be built up directly. This is particularly true for the service industries and government
services. Therefore, the indirect way of measuring
output is used; that is, dollar-volume figures are divided
by price deflators. In some sectors where physicalvolume data are available, the advantages of the price
deflation method are illusory, because price data are no
more abundant nor any more accurate than physicalvolume data. However, some direct measures of physical
volume are included in this report; for example, the
Federal Reserve index of industrial production.
Total output as compiled in the U.S. National Income
and Product Accounts prepared by the Office of Business
Economics (QBE) is the market value of the final output
of goods and services produced by the Nation's economy.
In addition to the sales of final products to their ultimate
consumer, the value of total output includes additions to
business inventories and the value of force-account
construction.2 The services of housewives and similar
nonmarket items are excluded. The effect of this may
lead to some overstatement in the long-run growth of
output since many services which were previously performed in households and excluded from GNP are now
included. A similar problem is inherent in international
comparisons, where in many countries a larger portion
of productive activity—than in the United States—occurs
outside the market economy.
There is also the point of view, held most notably by
Simon Kuznets, that the concept of total output should be
less inclusive than that used by QBE. Kuznets defines
total output as final output intended to satisfy wants of
individual consumers. Under this definition he excludes
those government expenditures which represent services
to business enterprises and many expenditures for
national defense.
In addition, there are the conceptual and practical
problems of taking quality changes into account. While
there is general agreement that improvements in product quality should be considered as increases in the
quantity of output, quality changes cannot be fully taken
into account in practice. It is generally believed that
the price deflators do not completely reflect quality
Also, imputations are made for four non-market items*
They are (1) employee compensation received in hind, (2)
food and fuel produced and consumed on farms, (3) services derived from owner-occupied residences, and (4-) the
services rendered by financial
intermediaries without
explicit charge* The resulting net addition is about
7 percent*
changes, since the relative quality of new products must
be higher than their relative prices for them to replace
the old products in the market place. Consequently, there
is a tendency for the rate of growth to be understated in
,the output measures.
Several related problems may be mentioned. One is
that of deflating the output of the construction industry.
The present price deflators measure, in general, the
costs of inputs rather than the outputs of the construction
industry. The result is generally an understatement of
the rate of growth of construction, since productivity
increases are not adequately allowed for. Another
problem is that the output of government is not directly
measured, but is based on compensation of government
employees.
The deflated value of government output,
obtained by adjusting for changes in the government wage
level, does not include productivity changes. Similar
methods are used to obtain the "output" of domestic and
nonprofit institutions. As is well known, gross national
product (GNP) is often used in the place of net output
because of difficult conceptual and measurement problems
in arriving at the capital consumption allowance; that is,
the amount of capital used up in the production process,
especially when the replacement capital embodies newer
technology.
Still another problem is that of weighting the components of aggregate output. Since relative prices change
over time, the selection of the base year determines the
weighting of the various components of national product
and affects its trend. Studies show that those output
components growing most rapidly tend to show the smallest price increases while those growing least rapidly tend
to show the largest price increases. Thus, a recent price
base gives greater weight to the slowly growing components than does an earlier price base, and vice versa.
Finally, earlier data are less comprehensive and less
accurate than recent data, themselves still subject to
important limitations.
From 1810 to 1899 industrial
censuses were decennial and from 1899 to 1919 they were
quinquennial. Also, relatively fewer data were compiled
on activities other than manufacturing in the early years
of the period covered by the report and these are still
inadequate in various respects. World Wars I and II and
and the depression of the 1930*s demonstrated the need
for more information, and the passage of the Employment
Act of 1946 stimulated further interest in statistics and
their uses. In addition, the increasing interdependence of
economic activities and the growth of the economics and
statistics professions led to the development of improved
methods of statistical compilation. In many cases the
government has taken over the series and methods of
private investigators and provided better current statistics through the use of the more comprehensive and
more accurate underlying data it is able to collect.
In this connection it is to be noted that the effects of
estimating errors are reduced as the span of comparison
is extended. Thus an error in the figures involved in a
comparison, which affects the year-to-year percentage
change by 5 percentage points, will affect the average
annual percentage change over 50 years by only one-tenth
of 1 percentage point. Similarly, the longer the period
over which the comparison is made, the smaller the
59
effects of cyclical and irregular factors. Because there
may be persistent biases in some measurements of
change, however, and because significant differences in
trends may take place during a nation's economic history,
a single measure of the average long-term trend must be
used with caution.
Selection of Statistical Indicators
The selection of statistical indicators useful in studying
the sources of economic growth is beset with many difficulties. One is that a comprehensive theory of economic
growth is at an early stage of development and does not
yet provide adequate guidelines. A second is that despite
the relative abundance of our statistics, there is a paucity
of data in certain key areas. For example, our national
wealth data are piecemeal, particularly on the age and
efficiency of capital. Also, few data are available on
quality of education or quality of labor. A third difficulty
is that many of the series available cover only a relatively
short span of years. This point is true of our series on
capacity (which start in the late 1940's) and research and
development (whifch start in the 1930's).
The series included in this report as measures of the
sources of economic growth represent a selection which
several experts in the field of economic growth now consider most relevant. To a large extent, the selection
relies on the list of 31 factors presented by Edward F.
Denison which potentially could affect the rate of growth
(some to a much greater degree than others). Many of
these factors are presented in Parts I and II of the report.
Several, however, are not directly presented in this report
because data are not available. They include the elimination of several types of institutional barriers to the most
efficient use of resources, the increased mobility of labor,
the reduction of crime, and an increase in the advance of
knowledge.
Some studies emphasize other sources of growth such
as the availability and utilization of natural resources and
energy; or the in tangibles such as the role of the innovator
and risk-taker and our method of economic organization,
dominated by free markets and competition. In general,
series for such additional factors have not been included
in this report principally because adequate relevant data
do not now exist.
Separation of Long-Term Growth
from the Business Cycle
Since 1834, the American economy has experienced 31
business cycles from about 3 to 8 years'duration. These
cycles have been characterized by alternating periods of
expansion and contraction. In addition, there have been
four wars with major effects upon the pace of economic
activity. The measurement of economic growth and longterm trends in many of the series is greatly complicated
by the presence of fluctuations associated with business
cycles and the types of irregular movements caused by
wars.
For example, from 1919 to 1965, the annual percentage
changes in total real GNP ranged from -14.7 to +16.1 a
year. These changes primarily represent the year-toyear effect of the business cycle as the economy shifts
from high- to low-level operation or vice versa. Such
shifts do not represent growth in output in the sense that
we are concerned with in the report. Rather, growth is
represented by various types of measures which "adjust"
for business cvcles and long-term irregular movements.
Thus, year-to-yeai changes in measures of potential GNP,
that is, estimates of GNP assuming reasonably full
employment, range from -0.2 to 6.5 with most measures
concentrated in the interval from 0.1 to 3.9 as can be
seen from the following table.
Four techniques are used in our report to show
measures of long-term trends as distinguished from
cyclical and irregular fluctuations.
(1) Potential GNP estimates made by the Council of
Economic Advisers (CEA) and by the staff of the
Joint Economic Committee (JEC) of Congress
(Knowles) are presented. These measures show
estimates of GNP assuming reasonably full employment.
(2) A new technique was developed to distinguish rates
of change which may be taken as "true" measures
of growth from those that are biased from this
point of view. This technique, suggested by
Denison, is used in the presentation of the growthrate triangles in Part V. The total unemployment
rate is used as a measure of how close the economy
Table 1.—DISTRIBUTION OF YEAR-TO-YEAR GROWTH RATES IN ACTUAL AND
POTENTIAL REAL GNP
Actual GFIP (QBE)
19U9 to 1965
percent change
All intervals . . .
-4.0 and lower
-0.1 to -3.9
o.o
0.1 to 3.9
4.0 to 7.9
8.0 to 11.9
12 . 0 and greater ....
60
No. of
measures
56
8
8
1
11
15
6
7
Percent
100.0
14.3
14.3
Potential GNP (JEC, Knowles)
1909 to 1964
No. of
measures
No. of
measures
Percent
55
1
Potent! aL GNP (CEA)
1952 t o 1965
100.0
1.8
Percent
13
_
_
100.0
13
100.0
1.8
19.6
26.8
10.7
12.5
34
20
-•
61.8
36.4
-
„
-
_
-
is operating to its potential output in selecting
appropriate years for comparison. Comparisons
between years with similar unemployment rates
are taken as more valid measures of economic
growth than (a) comparisons between years of
relatively high unemployment rate sand years with
relatively low rates, or conversely, (b) between
years of relatively low unemployment rates and
years of relatively high rates.
(3) An averaging technique was used to combine annual
data into measures of the average level of activity
over each business cycle. These business cycle
averages then provide the basic data in computing
growth rates and in showing the relative importance of geographic divisions and industries in
Part III. They minimize the effects of the varying
cyclical amplitudes of the geographic divisions and
industries. These cycle averages, unlike the comparison of selected years in which the unemployment rates are equal, measure the average level
over the business cycle, thus reflecting an "output" rather than a "capacity" concept of growth.
(4) Growth-rate comparisons of U.S. geographic divisions and industries and of the United States and
foreign countries are presented only for long spans
where the terminal dates have been picked carefully in order to minimize the effect of cyclical
fluctuations. In general, growth rates were computed from one cycle average to another or between
years of approximately equal unemployment. In
some instances, the standards have been relaxed a
little to include comparisons based on the current
period which does not include a complete business
cycle. Therefore, current comparisons may be
influenced more than longer, historical comparisons by the business cycle and other short-term
effects.
Although it is highly useful to separate the short-term
from the long-term fluctuations in measuring economic
growth, as is done in this report, the two types of
economic movements are interrelated to some extent. For
example, cyclical fluctuations often influence business and
government decisions concerning the timing and scope of
long-term investment commitments. In the 1930's, they
also affected the birth rate with a consequent effect on
today's labor force. Likewise, expected long-run increases in economic activity, foreshadowed by such
indicators as population, affect the patterns and magnitude
of cyclical fluctuations.
The method of selected points, the most frequently
used technique, does not take account of intervening
values; it estimates the growth rate by simply connecting
with a straight line the logarithms of the beginning
and
terminal values of the period of years considered.3 It is
not influenced by the particular pattern of cyclical, variations which occur between the initial and terminal years,
A linear trend fitted by least squares to the logarithms
of the data minimizes the sum of the squared deviations of
the logarithms of the data from the logarithms of the trend
and equates the sum of the logarithms of the data with the
sum of the logarithms of the trend. Thus, it is influenced
by the particular pattern of cyclical variations between the
Initial and terminal years.
There are several alternatives to the more common
technique described above of fitting a linear trend to the
logarithms by least squares, which involve fitting an ex*
ponential curve directly to the data themselves. The
advantage of these alternatives is that they equate the sum
of the data with the sum of the trend values rather than
with the sums of the logarithms (sums are more meaningful for economic data than products; i.e., sums of logarithms). However, the results are usually quite similar
to those obtained by the standard technique. *
In estimating growth rates, the time period to be
covered should be carefully selected. If the period is too
short, say 5 to 10 years, the estimated growth rate may
be greatly influenced by transitory conditions in the
economy. In such instances, the estimated rate will not
actually represent the long-term trend of the series. On
the other hand, a growth rate can be computed over too
long a period. The path of development of some series
over long periods cannot be approximated by a trend line
representing a constant percentage rate of increase. In
such cases, it may be more meaningful to compute growth
rates for various sub-periods or to fit a trend line which
does not have a constant rate of growth. In addition, the
time period should be selected in such a way that shortterm cyclical fluctuations do not bias the calculated growth
rate, particularly for a relatively short period where the
effect of the business cycle may be large.
Trend lines for GNP in the United States, derived by
various methods of computing growth rates, are shown for
selected periods in chart I of this paper.
The trend line is given by the compound interest-rate
formula which in logarithms is log X u - log X 1 , + n log
Selection of Growth-Rate Formulas
(1 + r') where X^ is the initial value and X the terminal value of the series, n is the span of years, and
r= r'*x100 is the percentage rate of growth* To calculate the rate of growth the formula is rearranged r =
- 1.0) x 100.
A growth rate can be defined as the slope of the trend
line of a historical series.
A constant rate of growth over
a period of years is1 usually expressed as the "average
percentage increase per year." A trend line with a
constant rate of growth appears as a straight line on a
ratio scale chart. Two widely accepted alternatives for
computing such growth rates are (1) the method of selected
points, and (2) a linear trend fitted by least squares to the
logarithms of the data.
^Two methods of fitting an exponential trend to the
actual data are discussed by Neville L. Mucker and Dudley
J. Cowden in Tables for Fitting an Exponential Trend by
the Method of Least Squares* Technical Paper 6, University of North Carolina School of Business Administration.
Other procedures for fitting an exponential trend directly to the data are described by Boris P. Pesek in
"Economic Growth and Its Measurement) " Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. IX, No* J, April 1$61.
61
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
62
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
CHART I
Comparison of alternative growth rate formulas, U.S. GNP t
1890 to 1965
Charted below are the trend lines fitted by four alternative growth rate formulas.
The growth rates are shown in parentheses after the letters designating the
formulas.
i M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I M I I I I I I I I I MI I II
1890 to 1907 Period
RATIO
SCALE
1929 to 1965 Period
1907 to 1929 Period
C(4.6)
11111111111111111
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
T
\
1948 to 1965 Period
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
i I i i i i I i i i i I i i i i I
1950
A.
B.
C.
D.
Trend
Trend
Trend
Trend
19*60
I I I I
19*50
I960
line calculated using initial and terminal years of annual data as selected points.
line calculated by fitting an exponential equation to logarithms of annual data.
line calculated by fitting an exponential equation to annual data -- Pesek.
line calculated using initial and terminal business cycle averages as selected points.
It seems appropriate to close this section on "Problems
of Measurement" with a quotation from Simon Kuznets, an
outstanding authority in this field:
" . . . the conceptual and other difficulties of measurement do not justify the refusal to measure and the
substitution of a cavalier treatment of uncontrolled
impressions . . . for the strenuous task of empirical
corroboration and testing. Despite the limitations
resulting from a scarcity of basic, underlying data
and from concepts that are outmoded because of a
serious cultural lag, much can be learned by a
determined scrutiny of the data—provided that one
looks at them with significant questions in mind and is
sufficiently familiar with the characteristics of both
the data and the underlying processes. Whatever
mistakes one may make in the process—and they will
be many—can at least be corrected by others; cumulative improvement and learning are possible so long
as the data are mobilized to serve as a basis of one
set of generalizations and as a check on another." *
development. Other series represent background economic activities which certainly affect long-term economic growth, though how is less clear. These include
data on prices and interest rates, saving and debt, the
assets of financial institutions, the balance of payments,
and monetary gold stock. The measures of the intensity
of utilization of labor and capital resources and of the
magnitude of seasonal and cyclical forces which are also
included in this section, provide quantitative information
which furnishes a perspective against which the measures
of long-term growth can be better appraised.
The third section presents measures below the
aggregate level which can be used to understand and interpret economic growth more effectively. Both regional
and industry series are shown.
The fourth section shows measures of output, input, and
productivity for six foreign countries. The countries are
United Kingdom, Canada, West Germany, Italy, France,
and Japan.
*Simon Kuznets, Six Lectures on Economic Growth* The
Crowell-Collier Publishing Company,
DESCRIPTION OF THE REPORT
General Plan
Long-Term Economic Growth brings together almost
400 aggregate annual economic time series and almost
800 additional component series mat seem useful for
studying economic growth. The report carries each series
far back in history—sometimes to 1860—and will update
them in subsequent editions. Future issues will also incorporate all revisions of source data as they become
available. The adequacy and appropriateness of particular
series are undergoing a continuing review by the Census
Bureau research personnel, in consultation with specialists in the field of long-term economic growth. It is
expected that new series will be added to future editions,
while some of the present group may be dropped after
further review. Annual publication is planned until the
expected suggestions of users are incorporated and the
report is stabilized in this sense. Subsequently, less
frequent publication may suffice.
The report is organized into five major parts. The
first part presents about 150 annual time series, measuring aggregate output, input, and productivity. These are
the basic measures of economic growth. First, various
measures of the growth of actual output of goods and "services along; with measures of potential output are presented.
These are followed by measures of the growth of inputs of
various human and material productive factors. The
input measures indicate the changing levels of economic
resources which have been used, or are available, over
the time period covered. Finally, measures of productivity, obtained simply by dividing the volume of output by the number of units of input, are presented.
The second major section covers economic processes
importantly related to economic growth. In some cases
the relation to economic growth is clear. This is true
for the series on education, health, and research and
Various analytical aids are included in section V and
the appendixes: (1) Growth triangles, which make it
possible to compare growth rates in the United States for
any pair of years between 1890 and 1965, for GNP, manhours, and productivity. Criteria are provided to help in
making judgments regarding the comparability of any two
years used in the comparison. (2) A growth rate conversion table, which facilitates similar computations for the
many other series in which the user may be interested.
To use this table, all that is needed is the ratio of the
values for last and first years to be compared. The
growth rate can then be found in this table, (3) Basic data
and brief descriptions with references to more detailed
explanations.
Since growth is essentially a long-term phenomenon,
it cannot be considered in terms of developments since
last year, the year before, 5 years ago, or perhaps even
10 years ago. Consequently, data in this report go back
many years, wherever possible, to 1860.
In order to observe such long-term trends, we have
had to build up series from different sources. Official
government series on gross national product extend back
only to 1909 and the components only to 1929. However,
various research students, particularly those at the
National Bureau of Economic Research, have provided
estimates extending back to the beginning of the industrial history of the United States, and these have been
brought together with corresponding official government
figures. Even when they are intended to measure the
same thing, these series, being estimates, are often
somewhat different. In addition, since different investigators were involved, there are some differences in concepts. Thus the series are not strictly comparable. In
order to indicate the extent of differences, an overlap of
about 10 years is provided, and a detailed description of
each series and references to the author's original discussion are given in the descriptive appendix. For this
first edition we have not been able to consider data prior
to 1860. We may do so for the next issue.
63
Aggregate Output, Input, and Productivity
Altogether 58 output series are included in the first
section. Because of the difficulties of taking out depreciation, gross national product data instead of national
income are used to measure output throughout this report.
However, a single series on national income is shown so
that we do not lose sight of the fact that this is the more
ideal measure. Then, some of the principal breakdowns of
gross national product are presented—e.g., the gross
private domestic product, gross nonagricultural product,
gross manufacturing product, gross farm product,
personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, and so on. Series on industrial
production and personal income are also included.
Finally, various income distributions are provided.
Next we turn to the input factors. These are viewed
in broad terms and cover the supply and utilization of
labor and capital. Two basic sets of total input estimates
are available, one prepared by the National Bureau of
Economic Research under the direction of JohnKendrick
and the other prepared by Edward Denison. The principal
difference is that Denison allows for changes in the quality
of labor. Unfortunately, the record for these series is
not as long as that for output. Kendrick has decade
estimates for 1869-78 and 1879-88, and then provides an
annual series beginning in 1899. His series extend only
to 1957, but we understand that he will bring these series
up to date in the not too distant future. Denison's series
start in 1909 and extend only to 1958.
In addition to these comprehensive measures of input,
separate series for labor and capital input are also shown,
not only at the aggregate level, but also for major components. Thus, series for total private man-hours as
well as man-hours in nonagricultural, manufacturing, and
agricultural industries are shown. Similar breakdowns
are also shown for total employment. An occupational
distribution of the labor force shows, on a percentage
basis, the number of farm workers, manual workers, and
white collar workers. Lebergott's early series for the
labor force are included along with recent Bureau of
Labor Statistics (BLS) data. Next, total population, the
farm and nonfarm population, and the age distribution of
the population are shown. These are followed by series
for the birth, death, and immigration rates. Finally,
Goldsmith's estimates of the civilian tangible wealth
and many of its components (for example, the net reproducible private business wealth; the net stock of private
residential nonfarm structures, and the stock of private
inventories) are shown. The estimates available from the
Office of Business Economics for the stock of fixed business capital, based on alternative service lives and
business depreciation schedules for the period 1929-61,
are also included.
The final part of the first section shows indexes of
productivity. Here are included Kendrick's and Denison's
series on output per unit of total input and details for
labor input and capital input. These are followed by
various series on output per employee and output per
man-hour.
64
Economic Processes Importantly Related
to Economic Growth
The next section of this report presents measures of
processes that appear to be strategic in determining the
rate of productivity; that is, the factors which explain
why output has grown more rapidly than input. Many
scholars in this field hold the view that it is not a matter
of one, two, or even three key factors, but rather that
a large number of different factors have been responsible for the high productivity in the United States.
Unfortunately, data are not available for many of them,
and we are able to present information for only a few of
the most strategic—in particular, education, health, and
research and development. For education, such series
as school enrollment, the average length of the public
school term, and total expenditures in the education
system are shown. Improvements in health represent
another way of expanding the input of human resources,
both in terms of quantity and quality. Under health, there
are data for public expenditures for medical research,
days lost by employed persons because of illness, and
average life expectancy at birth. Research and development has increasingly been looked to as a way of improving the quality of capital; for this area, data on funds
for scientific research and development, and applications
for patents are given.
This section also includes a large number of series
which provide a broad background of information which
is helpful in making judgments of past and prospective
performance. ' These include data on the money supply,
narrowly defined to include both currency and demand
deposits and broadly defined to include also time deposits.
Two series on the velocity of the money supply are also
shown here. Prices of commodities, money, and equities"
are included; and the implicit price deflators for total GNP
and its major components. Series on prof its, saving, the
balance of payments, and the monetary gold stock follow.
Third, data on the utilization of resources, both of
labor and of capital, which show how close to capacity the
economy actually operated in particular periods of our
history, and measures of the magnitude of cyclical
fluctuations are also given here. These data are expected
to contribute to good judgments about the validity of
growth estimates over various time periods.
Regional and Industry Trends
The presentation up to this point is at the aggregate
level and provides some relatively simple guidelines of
overall performance. It is commonly recognized, however, that an aggregate is only a convenient summary of
a large variety of activities that take place below this
level, and detailed inspections of the pattern of events
beneath is required for a thorough appreciation of factors
affecting economic growth.
There are, of course, great volumes of U.S. data for
regions and industries. To provide all such information
in detail would swamp this whole report. Therefore, in
order to bring out the principal regional and industrial
developments without taking an undue amount of space,
two presentation techniques have been employed in the
third section of the report.
The first technique is the familiar method of plotting
all the data for all the regions on the same time scale.
Such charts for the nine Census Geographic Divisions
are shown for several measures including population, per
capita personal income, and value added per employee in
manufacturing. To indicate the relative importance of
the development of the different geographic divisions,
however, the data for each are shown as a percentage of
the national average. As a result, most of the charts are
quite similar to that illustrated below (chart II) for per
capita personal income, with fairly broad gaps among the
divisions in the earlier periods of our history, 1880 and
1890, gradually being narrowed over the years until they
are fairly close together now.
The second technique is a special type of scatter
diagram. Here the growth rate for one period is plotted
against the growth rate for another. For example, growth
rate for each State and Census Division for the period
from 1929 to 1960-65 (vertical scale) is plotted against
the growth rate for the period from 1880 to 1929
(horizontal scale). In this kind of chart the national
average for the latter period is shown as a line drawn
parallel to the horizontal scale and the national average
for the earlier period as a line drawn parallel to the
vertical scale. For States or Divisions falling in the
upper left-hand portion of the chart, the rate of growth
has been greater than the national average in the recent
period and below the national average in the early period.
For those falling in the upper right portion, growth rates
were above the national average in both the recent and
early periods. Those falling in the lower left-hand portion
were below the national average in both periods and States
or Divisions in the lower right-hand portion were below
the national average in the recent period, but above in the
early period. Thus this chart shows that, on a per^ capita
s basis, Florida, North Carolina, Texas, andWestiVirginia
"fared well in both periods. South Carolina, Arkansas, and
Georgia did especially well in the recent period, but not
so well in the early period. California was below the
national average in both periods. In considering these
statistics, it is to be borne in mind, of course, that it is
the changes which have been plotted. In terms of the
level of per capita income, California, of course, rates
very high.
Similar charts are shown for other comparison periods
and for the various manufacturing industries. Thus, our
chart for the manufacturing industries shows that,
compared to total GNP, the best growth record since
1948 has been for the transportation, communication, and
public utilities industries; the services industries; and the
finance, insurance, and real estate industries—both from
1948 to 1960 and since 1960. Construction has done
relatively poorly. Among the individual manufacturing
industries, the recent record of the chemical industries,
electrical machinery, and rubber is especially good.
International Comparisons
The interest in economic growth has come to the fore
in recent years partly because of the greater awareness
of the importance of this factor in determining the welfare
of our own population and in re solving many of the difficult
social problems affecting the poor, but also because
economic growth has become an international issue. Thus,
accelerating economic growth has become a principal
objective of economic policy in many of the underdeveloped
countries. Adversary nations have pointed with pride to
their rapid rates of economic growth and challenged our
economic system to demonstrate that it can match theirs.
In addition, the relatively poor economic performance in
the United States during the later years of the fifties and
the first few years of the sixties, compared to economic
performance in Japan, Germany, France, and other
Western nations, has been a cause of considerable concern
here, and led to a careful reexamination of our own
economic policy. For these reasons, a section showing
the rates of growth in the United States and the principal
industrialized countries with which we trade—United
Kingdom, Canada, West Germany, Italy, France, and
Japan—is included. The number of countries covered in
this section has been limited partly because fewer
historical data are available for foreign countries than
for the United States, partly because there are serious
problems of comparability, and partly because of our
own staff resources. In later editions we hope to add other
countries to this section.
Analytical Measures
In this publication we depart from the more familiar
types of statistical publications in several respects.
First, the basic data are supported by computergenerated charts. Today charts are, of course, a common
feature of many statistical publications. The fact that they
are computer generated means that they can be developed
in much larger quantities. Indeed, they have become the
primary method of presentation with tables occupying a
relatively minor role. Most charts in this new publication
are the familiar time-series charts. Others are special
types, such as the scatter diagrams which provide a great
deal of information in a small amount of space.
In addition, we have included special analytical charttables to facilitate studies of economic growth. The first
of these are growth triangles. Growth triangles, now a
familiar tool in growth presentations, show the same years
along the horizontal and vertical scales. The growth rate
between any two years can be found at the point of intersection between two lines perpendicular to the dates.
Thus, it is possible to find growth rates in GNP for any
pair of years from 1890 to 1965 in our first growth
triangle.
We have also introduced a new type of criterion,
suggested by Edward F. Denison, in this chart-table.
Because of differences in the extent to which resources
are utilized, or in other words, differences in the stage
of the business cycle, every pair of years is not comparable from the point of view of measuring economic
growth. For instance, the growth rate computed from a
business cycle trough year to a business cycle peak year
will be higher than the true rate of growth. Similarly, if
we start with a business cycle peak year and end up with
a business cycle trough year, the growth rate computed
between these two years will be lower than the true rate
of growth.
65
CHART II
Per capita personal income, United States and 9 Census Geographic Divisions, 1880 to present
PART A.
NATIONAL AVERAGE
CURRENT
DOLLARS
4000
3000
CURRENT
DOLLARS
4000
3000
2000
1500
2000
1500
1000
1000
500
500
100
JlOO
PERCENT
250 r-
PERCENT
-1250
PART B. CENSUS GEOGRAPHIC DIVISIONS AS PERCENT OF NATIONAL AVERAGE
Legend
A A A 6 £> Pacific
+ + + + + Mountain
Middle Atlantic
New England
East North Central
West North Central
South Atlantic
oooooooo West South Central
East South Central
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
-J 0
1000
1S7Q
1870
1810
1190
•
1900
1900
1 1 I II
1910
I 111 I
1920
From 1929 to 1965. data are annual. Before 1929, data are available only for 1880,1900 and an average for the period 1919to1921.
66
1930
Mill
1940
1950
1968
A measure that would be suitable for this purpose
would be percent of total capacity with appropriate
comparisons being those periods in which the economy
operated at about the same rate of capacity. But such
data are not available. The unemployment rate may be
considered a measure of the extent to which the labor
force is utilized and, therefore, when inverted, can serve
as a proxy for a measure of capacity operation. Since data
on the unemployment rate are available back to 1890, it
has been used to call attention to those pairs of years
that will result in biased growth rates and to indicate
years that are essentially comparable. Growth rates
between years for which the unemployment rate is about
tbe same are printed in black on a white background.
Growth rates for which the unemployment rate in the
initial year exceeds the rate in the terminal year are
printed in black on a shaded background; these growth
rates are likely to be greater than the true rate of
economic growth. Growth rates for years in which the
unemployment rate in the terminal year exceeds that in
the initial year are printed in brown on a shaded background; for these, the growth rate shown is likely to be
less than the true rate of economic growth.
Two different standards have been used in preparing
these chart-tables. In one case we have had fairly
exacting standards and in another more relaxed standards.
Consequently, 13 percent of the 2,850 possible comparisons in the first chart-table show growth rates which are
comparable under our assumptions. In the chart-table
with the more relaxed standards, 35 percent of the 2,850
possible comparisons show growth rates that are comparable under our assumptions. In addition to these two
growth triangles for GNP, there are also included growth
triangles for total man-hours and gross private product
per man-hour. In these four triangles, the compound
interest-rate formula is used to compute the growth rates
between the initial and terminal year. As an alternative,
the growth rate computed with a linear trend fitted to the
logarithms of the data is shown for total output.
One of the principal requests made by those who reviewed earlier editions of our new report was for more
growth-rate triangles. Since these are very space consuming and we could have had one for just about every
series in the book, we sought a simple way of meeting
this interest without unduly expanding the volume. Our
solution was the preparation of a growth-rate conversion
table. Here the familiar compound-interest-rate table is
modified so that the user no longer has to interpolate
between tabled values. To use this new type of table, three
simple steps are necessary: (1) Compute the ratio of the
value in the later year to the value in the earlier year;
(2) check the stub of the table to find the number of years
over which the comparison is being made; and (3) search
on that line for the two values between which.this ratio
falls. The rate of growth is then given on the top row
between these two values. For example: GNP was $452.5
billion in 1957 and $614.4 billion in 1965. The ratio of
614.4 to 452.5 is 1.35779, and the number of years spanned
from 1965 to 1957 is 8. The average annual growth rate
is then found by locating the interval within which 1.35779
falls on the 8-year horizontal line; i.e., 3.9percent.
This table covers 70 years and the growth rate is
shown to one decimal. We have also prepared, and can
make available on a cost basis, similar tables showing
the growth rate to two decimal places or growth rates
above the 10-percent limit in the present table. In
addition, we have provided a formula for computing growth
rates for periods longer than 70 years but less than 140.
The growth-rate conversion table is useful for computing the growth rate for any series between any pair
of historical years. For extrapolating growth rates, we
have also provided a standard compound-interest-rate
table for periods from 1 to 20 years. More detailed
compound-interest tables can be obtained from other
sources.
LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS
Long Term Economic Growth is a statistical history
of economic growth in the United States. Such a history
is of interest for its own sake, but the information it
presents also may reveal important knowledge that can
be helpful in stimulating growth in future years. A
related use of these data is to provide the basis for
forecasts of future growth in the United States. These
forecasts, in turn, are helpful in a large variety of necessary long-range planning projects, such as the aggregate demand for goods and services, urban development,
transportation facilities, educational requirements, and
so on.
To close this paper, I thought it might be helpful to
provide one illustration of how this new report can be
used by presenting a few representative long-term
projections.
Chart III and tables 2 and 3 show two types of projections of GNP to 1980. First are analytical projections,
which attempt to allow explicitly for factors that may
affect future economic growth. They have been prepared
by various government
agencies and private planning
organizations. 5
Two major assumptions underlie all these analytical
projections: (1) There will be no deep or prolonged
depressions, and (2) the unemployment rate will fall in
the range 4.0 to 4.5 percent in the terminal year.
The second type are "naive" projections, which assume
that the trend of a given historical period will continue
into the future. They do not take into account, in a
systematic way, prospective policy changes and-structural shifts in the economy, and for this reason are not
forecasts in an economic sense. But they do provide a
broad perspective for judging future prospects. At a
minimum, they provide a standard against which analytical projections can be judged, by establishing a range
within which an analytical projection would be expected
to fall, if past conditions do not change much. Conversely,
the naive projections can help to indicate the impact of
any major change in past conditions assumed in preparing
an analytical projection.
The government agencies are the Council of Economic
Advisers and Joint Economic Committee of Congress and the
nongovernment agencies are the Committee for Economic
Development9 National Planning Association, Resources for
the Future, McGraw-Hill, and National Industrial Conference Board*
67
CHART
Gross national product in 1965 dollars projected to 1980
I I
I I I I I I I I I
r i i ri I T rr T
i M*> * iirriiii
I I I I I I I I I
Analytical Projections
' C
- D
'A
•' B
A-RFF
(I960 to 1980)
B-CED-Denison (1960 to 1980)
C-NPA
(1965 to 1980)
D-Mc Graw-Hill (1965 to 1980}
(Billions of 1965 Dollars)
1200
1000
80:0
,<&
X'/-'
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
RATIO
SCALE
1400
600
400
200
Extrapolations of Historical Growth Races
,4
3
2
' 1
1400
1200
1000
800
1- 1909 to 1965
2- 1929 to 1965
3- 1948 to 1965
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(Billions of 1965 Dollars)
600
4- 1960 to 1965
400
200
I ii
1930
111
i i i i I ( II
1940
1950
i i i i Ii iit
1960
M i JI i i i i
1970
Mill
1980
Table 2.—ANALYTICAL PROJECTIONS TO 1975 AND 1980 AND HISTORICAL GROWTH RATES
PART A.—Analytical Projections Average Annual Growth Rates
NPA
CED, Etension
CEA
JEC, Knowles
1964 to 1960 1960
1959 to
1965 1965
1970
1975
to
to
to
to
1975 1980
1975 1980
Item
Total labor force.....
1.7
1.7
1.8
19
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.3
-0.5
Man-hours
Private
Total
1.3
1.5
1.2
1.4
1.1
1.2
Output per man-hour
Private
Total
3.3
30
3.4
30
2.7
3.5
47
45
3#
4.5
43
4.4
43
38
1.7
Average weekly hours
Private
Total.
1.7
1.68
RFF
1960 to
1980
-0.53'
1.7
18
NICE McGraw-Hill
1964 to
1965 to
1975
1980
17
18
1 7
18
1 Q
1 Q
-0.4
-0.4
-0 5
1.5
13
3.0
28
? 75
Output
GNP
Actual1
Potential^
4.7 3.55
4.0 3 30
•.
3.52
3 33;
4.7
40
*! 1
4 35
41
PART B.—Historical Average Annual Growth Rates
Item
1909
to
1965
1929
to
1965
1948
to
1965
1960
to
1965
].4
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.6
-0.5
-0.5
-0.3
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
0.6
0.9
0.3
0.6
0.5
0.9
1.3
1.6
2.3
2.1
2.7
2.5
3.4
2.9
3.5
3.1
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.1
1.6
3.9
3.8
2.1
4.9
4.7
3.3
3.8
3.7
4.4
5.7
1.4
Average weekly hours
Civilian
Total (NPA)
*..
Man-hours
Private
Total (NPA)
Output per man-hour
Private
Total ( NPA)
..
-0.4
-0,5
3
4
Output
GNP
Per capita disposable income. . .1965 $. .
Industrial production
index : 1957-59=100. .
I
4 percent unemployment rate assumed,in terminal year, except for NICE which assumes 4.5 percent*
^Potential defined as the GMP which would be produced if unemployment were 4.0 percent in initial
and terminal year*
3
Initial,year is 1910.
^Initial year is 1930*
Table 3.--LEVELS IN 1957 AND 1980 IMPLIED BY ANALYTICAL PROJECTIONS BY
EXTRAPOLATION OF HISTORICAL GROWTH RATES
(The levels shown below were calculated by extrapolating the currently published data
with the growth rates shown in table 2. For part B, the extrapolations were made from 1965
and for part A from the years enclosed in parenthesis.)
PART A.—Analytical Projections
1975
1965
value
Item
JEC;
Knowles
(1959)
NPA
CED,
Denison
(1960)
(1965)
1980
NICE
(1964)
"thousands. .78 357
thousands . .74 901
94 220
93 930
89 226
90 280
93 000
89 000
hours . . 38.86
hours. . 38.69
35.8
37.28
37.17
36.7
Man-hours
Private
index • 1965 = 100 . . 100.0
Total (NPA).. index: 1965 - 100.. 100.0
-
-
113.7
115.8
117.6
Output per man-hour
Private ...... index * 1965 - 100 . 100 0
Total (NPA).. index: 1965 = 100.. 100.0
-
-
139 0
134.4
138 4
135.5
158.0
135.0
155.6
913 0 1057 9
159 3
1027 5
Total labor force
Total employment
Average weekly hours
Private (NPA)
Total (NPA)
Output
Private
GNP
GNP
index* 1965 = 100.. 100.0
index • 1965 = 100. . 100.0
bil. of 1965 $. . 681 2
162 9
1101 4
RFF
(1960)
102 445
98 862
CED,
Denison
(1960)
NPA
(1965)
102 445
96 557
101 400
97 500
101 400
94 900
35.0
36.52
36 43
35 5
-
118 8
122.6
121.6
-
164 1
155.8
150.2
194 9
191 0
1299 5
1244.6
36 8
116 6
144 8
168 0
168 7
1140 6
McGrawHill
(1965)
159 8
1080 . 6
PART B.—Extrapolation of Historical Growth Rates
1975
1965
value
Item
Total labor force
thousands
1909
to
1965
1929
to
1965
78 357
90 045
74 901
86 073
89 160 AQ 160
85 228 A5 PPA
Average weekly hours
Civilian
hours. • 40 5
Total (NPA)
hours
38 69
Man-hours
Private
index • 1965 ~ 100
100 0
Total (NPA).. index: 1965 = 100.. 100.0
Output per man-hour
Private
index* 1965 ~ 100
100 0
Total (NPA).. index: 1965 = 100.. 100.0
Output
Private ...... index • 1965 = 100 . .100 0
GNP
'
index • 1965 - 100, . 100.0
GNP
.bil. of 1965 $. . 681.2
Per capita disposable
income..
1965 $. . 2,411
Industrial production
index' 1957-59-100.. 143.3
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
70
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
IS 80
1948
to
1965
1960
to
1965
1909
to
1965
1929
to
1965
1948
to
1965
an n/t.
%
^0£
OS -i r\&
ax -\ ri£
A7 7A6
QO Of£Q
QO Q1 3
QO
40 5
3A 31
3A 1
3S QO
37 6
qc or)
Ox-
J/
-3CJ T T
-30.
11
-i piQ /.
1 OA 6
1 O7 A
1 PI A
114.4
109.4
114.4
126.9
-i fie -i1
ico.
153.5
1 ^O'
ID
/. P*1
158.1
38 9
36 Ai
38 5
36 Ai
37 1 A
106 2
103 0
10*5 1
109.4
106.2
109.4
i"i 3 A
117.2
39 3
1 P5 5
1 "3D ^
123.1
, 128.0
i 3Q 7
133.1
i/.i i
135.7
133 1
134 4
915 5
135 7
135 7
924 4
146 6
145 2
989 1
1 5A 3
107& 3
2 826
2,968
3 335
206 1
220 4
249 5
208 1
161 3
-i /n 6
T J Q
136.6
144.8
1 *53 *5
1 5*5 A
1061 3
P50 7
-t
1 *SA 1
1960
to
1965
Ql "3
3A 7
%
C
\O£*
QK ri'3'7(
y.jj\jj
LT\ *>
1 5A 1
1 076 A
1 77 *S
1 7S O
T 1 Q1 Q
POZ. Q
1 QQ P
1 3^6 7
3 059
3 PQ3
3 QPZ.
p^.7 1
P73 A
3PQ 1
The figures used to make up these projections are
provided in tables 2 and 3 and, in addition, corresponding projections for labor input and productivity are shown.
First, an observation about the relations between the
analytical and naive projections: The naive projections
fall over a wider range than the analytical projections.
If our recorded history is used as the basis for projecting,
the range of possibilities in the future would appear to be
greater than if the analytical projections are used. Most
experts believe the analytical projections will prove to be
more accurate than the naive projections. One reason is
some of the underlying conditions, particularly the future
population of working age, can be fairly accurately
estimated on the basis of the present population. The
naive projections implicitly allow for more variation
because the population of working age has grown at
different rates in different historical periods. However,
we have learned from experience that it is very difficult
to make accurate projections. One danger of the analytical
projections is that most forecasters are heavily swayed by
The sources of the projections shown in tables 2 and
'3 are listed below.
CEA: Council of Economic Advisers, Annual Report,
January 1965.
JEC-Knowles: James W. Knowles, The Potential
Economic Growth in the United States, prepared for
the Study of Employment Growth, and Price Levels,
Joint Economic Committee, Congress of the United
States, January 30, 1960.
CED-Denison: Edward F. Denison, The Sources of
Economic Growth in the United States and The
Alternatives Before Us, Committee for Economic
Development, 1962.
NPA: National Economic Projections to 1976-77,
National Economic Projections Series, National
Planning Association, to be published in September
1966. The 1980 figures were taken from NPA
worksheets.
RFF: Hans H. Landsberg, Leonard L. Fischman and
Joseph L. Fisher, Resources in America's Future,
Resources for the Future, Inc.,1963.
NICE: Supplied by the National Industrial Conference
Board. See also "Economic Potentials of the United
States for the next decade," reprinted from The
Conference Board Record, December 1965, NICB.
McGraw-Hill: American Prospects for Growth
Through 1980, McGraw-Hill Economics Department, McGraw-Hill, Inc.
the conventional wisdom of the day, and base their work
on similar assumptions. This may be part of the expla*
nation why the range is smaller than that of the naive
projections.
To consider some of the prospects, I have selected
three different projections. One is the highest among
them, the other is one of the lowest among them and the
third is the median. These all turn out to be naive projections, but similar conclusions could be drawn from the
analytical projections.
The implications of the recent improvement in economic growth and stability are staggering to the imagination. A continuation of recent trends will carry us to
unbelievable levels of economic activity in our own lifetimes.
The divergence of these various curves as they
approach 1980 indicates how important relatively small
difference in annual growth rates can be when cumulated
over longer periods of time. However, even if we repeat
the experience since 1929, one of the slowest growth
rates projected, we shall have by 1980 a 58 percent growth
in gross national product in constant dollars and 27 percent growth in per capita disposable personal income. A
continuation of the record since 1948 will yield an increase of about 75 percent in GNP and 35 percent in per
capita disposable income. If we have, indeed, conquered
the business cycle, we shall do far better. The increase
in gross national product in constant dollars will be
almost double and the increase in per capita disposable
personal income about 60 percent. Industrial production
could increase even more rapidly, 70 percent on the most
unfavorable assumption and 130 percent on the most
favorable. It seems most unlikely, however, that consumers would want to take so much of their increased
income in terms of goods. What would we do with all of
them? More likely there will be substantial shifts from
goods to more services and from goods and services to
more leisure.
Thus there is in sight, within our own lifetimes, the
prospect of another vast improvement in economic
welfare. This is not to say that by 1980 we shall have
enough to meet all our economic aspirations, but we shall
have a great deal more than we have now, even though we
encounter many unexpected pitfalls which impede our
progress.
This projection exercise illustrates one important way
of exploiting some of the data brought together in this
report. We are hopeful that it will facilitate the preparation of new and better projections and that it will be
put to many different additional uses. We shall be very
glad to hear of your experiences with it.
71
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH
A new Census Bureau report, Long Term Economic Growth, presents
in convenient form, the principal annual time series needed by students
of economic growth. It is intended to simplify the task of analysts in
this field, whatever their explanations of economic growth and standards
for judging performance happen to be, by providing a broad base of
information related to economic growth and relieving those concerned
with theoretical issues and economic policies of a large part of the
laborious task of compiling basic data and making computations from
them.
The new report provides annual data over a long span of years for each
series, often back to 1860. In addition to almost 400 basic time series
and almost 800 component series, the report contains numerous charts,
growth-rate "triangles," and scatter diagrams to facilitate the summarization, analysis, and interpretation of long-term trends in the U.S.
economy. This compendium is the third phase of the Census Bureau
work on economic fluctuations, which includes the seasonal adjustment
program and the monthly Business Cycle Developments report.
ORDER FORM
MAIL ORDER FORM
WITH PAYMENT TO
Superintendent of Documents
U.S. Government Printing Office
Washington, D.C. 20402
or any U.S. Department of
Commerce Field Office
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH: 1860-1965
Price per copy $2 75
No of copies
METHOD OF PAYMENT (mark one)
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INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Timing
classification
Charts
1
2
Appendixes1
Tables
3
1
2
4
5
6
7
B
C
D
G
F
E
Page
Issue
Page
Issue
73
July '64
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
1. Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg..
2 Accession rate manufacturing •
46. Help-wanted advertising
30. Nonagricultural placements, all Indus
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments
42. Total nonagricultural employment
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing . . . .
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance .
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State.
43. Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate, married males
L
L
C
L
C
C
L
L
L
C
C
C
10
10
15
10
15
15
10
10
10
15
15
15
C
C
C
c
c
c
c
c
16
16
16
17
17
17
16
17
29. New building permits, private housing
L
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
L
38. Index of net business formation
L
L
13. New business incorporations
6. New orders, durable goods industries
L
24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries . . L
U
94 Construction contracts value
9. Construction contracts, comm. and indus. , L
L
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment.
11. New capital appropriations, mfg
L
61. Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip . .
Ill Corporate gross savings
U
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg . .-. U
11
11
12
12
11
11
22
11
11
11
18
20
22
22
59
59
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
24
24
28
24
28
28
24
24
24
28
28
28
8
38
8
8
8
8
8
29
29
28
29
29
29
29
29
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9'
25
25
25
25
24
24
34
25
25
25
30
32
34
34
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
27
26
27
30
27
30
27
27
27
8
8
8
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
27
26
29
34
30
30
26
26
26
26
62
62
63
63
66
62
63
66
62
63
62
63
66
62
62
62
62
63
63
63
63
62
63
66
66
66
66
66
66
62
63
62
62
63
63
66
62
62
62
63
63
63
66
62
63
66
62
63
66
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
70
72
72
*66
*66
71 72
71
70
70
72
*66
*66
*66
71 71
71
Sept.
Sept.
Feb.
Oct.
Sept.
Feb.
Sept.
Nov.
July
Mar.
Feb.
Feb.
!
66
'66
'64
'63
'66
'66
'66
'63
'63
'64
'66
'66
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME AND TRADE
49 GNP in current dollars
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
47 industrial production
52. Personal income
53 Labor income in mining mfg constr
54. Sales of retail stores
57 Final sales
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
--
60
60
59
...
71
71
71
71
68
68
67
67
67
67
68
67
71
71
Aug.
July
Sept.
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.
Aug.
Mar,
'65
' 66
'64
'65
'65
'66
'65
'65
74
74
74
*66
65
*66
June
July
June
Aug.
May
Dec.
'65
' 65
'65
'63
'64
'63
68
65
72
66
68
Nov.
June
Nov.
June
Nov.
'64
' 64
'65
' 64
'64
*66
71
65
66
64
66
*68
65
*66
Dec.
Aug.
June
June
June
June
June
June
Mar.
'63
'65
'64
'64
' 64
' 64
T
63
'64
'64
*66
66
69
70
73
73
71
73
64
74
Jan.
Apr.
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Oct.
Aug.
Oct.
June
Sept.
'64
'64
'64
'64
'65
'65
'65
'65
!
64
'65
71
72
70
72
72
72
72
72
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
!
i
58
60
66
67
67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67
68
68
68
68
68
70
IV. INVENTORIES
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods. .
21. Change in business inventories (GNP) . . .
31. Change, mfg. and trade inventories
64 Manufacturers' inventories total.
20. Change, mtls. and supplies inventories. . .
65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods. .'.'
37. Purchased, materials, higher inventories. .
26 Buying policy production materials
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries . . .
L
L
t*
i?
L
L
14
14
14
18
14
18
14
14
14
60
••
62
63
66
69
69
69
67
69
67
67
67
67
70
V. PRICES, COSTS AND PROFITS
23 Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
55, Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
81 Consumer prices
62. Labo'r cost per unit of output mfg. ......
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corp. GNP, . .
16. Corporate profits after taxes
17 Ratio price to unit labor cost mfg
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
22. Profits to income originating, corporate. . .
L
L
C
U
Lg
g
t
L
L
L
14
13
17
22
18
18
13
13
13
13
58
58
59
61
58
62
62
62
63
63
63
66
66
62
63
66
62
62
63
63
66
67
67
67 70
68 70
67 70
68
68
67 70
68 70
68
L = leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.
Digitized
L for FRASER
See September issue.
73
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Timing
classification
Charts
1
2
Appendixesi
Tables
3
1
2
4
5
6
7
B
C
D
F
E
Page
Q
Issue
Page
Issue
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
U
85 Change in money supply
98. Change, money supply and time deposits . . U
U
93 Free reserves
66. Consumer installment debt
Lg
113. Change, consumer installment debt
U
U
112. Change in business loans
110. Total private borrowing
u
20
20
20
18
20
20
20
u
114 Treasury bill rate
u
115 Treasury bond yields
u
116 Corporate bond yields
u
117 Municipal bond yields
u
118 Mortgage yields
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans . . Lg
14 Liabilities of business failures
L
15 Large business failures
21
21
21
Cl
21
18
12
12
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
32
32
32
30
33
32
32
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
33
33
33
33
33
30
25
26
u
u
22
22
22
22
9
9
9
9
33
34
34
34
u
83 Federal cash receipts from public
u
82 Federal cash payments to public
u
84 Federal cash surplus or deficit
95. Balance, Fed. income and prod, account . , u
u
91. Defense Department obligations, total
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. . . u
u
92 Military contract awards in U.S
u
99 New orders defense products
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
32
VII.
86
87.
88,
89
61
61
62
63
62
63
62
62
63
63
69
69
69
67
69
69
68
66
73
74
66
70
71
71
72
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Aug.
July
July
Nov.
'65
'65
'64
'64
'64
'64
'65
71
72
72
72
72
70
. . *66
*66
July
July
Aug.
July
July
Aug.
Nov.
Mar.
' 64
'64
'66
' 64
'64
'64
'63
'64
71
72
72
74
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
July
'66
'66
'66
'65
72
72
72
70
70
70
66
May
May
May
Aug.
Sept.
Sept.
Sept.
Oct.
' 66
' 66
' 66
'65
'64
'64
'64
'64
66
67
67
67
67
68
68
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
70
67
67
67
67
67
68
67 70
67 70
73
73
73
July
July
July
'64
'64
'64
74
74
74
74
74
July
July
July
July
July
' 64
'64
'64
'64
' 64
FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
Exports excluding military aid
General imports
Merchandise trade balance
U S balance of payments ............
U
U
*•
68
68
69
69
•*
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
61
**
62
67
67
69
69
67
67
67
67
63
70
70
. . 72
70
70
70
IX. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121
122.
123
125.
126
127.
128
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
production, OECD
production, United Kingdom —
production Canada
production, West Germany
production France
production, Italy
production Japan
u
u
u
u
u
u
u
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
70
DIFFUSION INDEXES
01. Average workweek
D5 Initial claims
06 New orders
Dll- Capital appropriations
1-month. .
9-month. .
1-month.
9-month..
1-month. .
9-month. .
1-quarter. .
3-quarter. .
034.
D35.
D36
D4L Employees in nonagri.establish. 1-month..
6-month..
047. Industrial production
1-month. .
6-month..
048. Freight carloadings
4-quarter. .
D54. Retail sales
1-month. .
9-month..
058. Wholesale prices, mfg
1-month. .
6-month...
061. New plant and equip, expend., 1-quarter. .
••
••
-•
D19 Stock prices
D23.
1-month. .
9-month. .
Industrial materials prices
1-month. .
9-month..
Profits, mfg
1-quarter. .
Net sales, mfrs
4-quarter. .
New orders .............. 4-quarter. .
••
••
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
41
41
40
40
. * 40
40
41
40
40
40
40
41
•.
••
42
42
43
43
42
42
42
42
46-7
46-7
56
56
46-9
46-9
73
73
73
73
72
69
73
73
Sept.
Sept.
May.
May
Apr.
Oct.
Feb.
Feb.
'66
'66
'65
'65
'65
'64
'65
'65
43
43
43
43
43
45
45
55
55
48-9
48-9
72
69
72
73
69
70
70
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Oct.
Nov.
Nov.
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
'64
'64
44 50-3
44 50-3
44 52-3
44 52-3
45
44 48-51
44 48-51
44 52-5
44 52-5
45
••
••
••
-•
•'•
73
73
73
70
68-9
73
70
73
73
69
*.
.•
Sept. '66
Sept. '66
Apr.
'65
Oct.
'64
Nov.
'64
Apr.
' 65
Oct.
'64
Apr.
'65
Feb.
'65
Nov.
'64
L = leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.
•'"See September issue.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
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Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. " M" indicates monthly series "Q" indicates
quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ". "EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates
data are for the end of the quarter. The Roman numeral identifies the economic process group in which a series is listed in the Finding Guide. Thus, "(M,ll)* indicates a monthly
series listed in group II. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) were
included in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M,IV).--Depart-
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing {M,I).-Department Of LabQf,
ment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Bureau of Labor Statistics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M,IV).-ChJCagO Purchasing
*2, Accession rote, manufacturing (M,l).~Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3, Layoff rate, manufacturing (M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials (M,IV).-National AsSOCta-
tion of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
4. Number of persons on temporary .layoff, all industries (M f l).-Department Of Labor, Bu-
reau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M,I).—De-
partment of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M,lll).—Department Of
*38. Index of net business formation (M,lll).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M,I).-Department Of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M,lll).--Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings,
floor space
(M,lll).»F. W. Dodge Corporation;seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*41. Number of employees in noncgricultural establishments (M,l).--Department Of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
42, Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M,l)."Department Of Labor, Bu-
reau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M,lll).--Departmentof Commerce, Bureau
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
of the Census, and F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M,l).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q,lll).--Na-
tional Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted
and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M,I).-National Industrial Conference
13. Number of new business incorporations (M,ltl),--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
*47. index of industrial production (M,ll).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Board
*49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q,II).-Department of Commerce, Office Of
*14. Current liabilities of business failures (M,vi),--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of
$100,000 and over
of Business Economics
*50 Gross notional product in 1958 dollars (Q,II).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(M,VI).--Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*16t Corporate profits after taxes(Q,V).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51. Bonk debits,all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York (224 SMSA's)
(M,ll).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income (M,ll).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M,II).-Department of Com-
17. Price per unit of labor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices of manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M,V),-Department Of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;
and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q,V).--
Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M,v).-Standard and Poor's Corporation; no
seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (M,IV).—
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP
component) (Q,lV).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q,V).—
merce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M,ll).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities other than farm products and foods (M,V).--
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
57. Final soles (series 49 r
s 21) (Q,ll).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*6l. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q,III).-Department Of Com-
merce, Office of Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements
to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M,V).--
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M,V).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M,III),-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M,IV).--Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
26. Buying policy—production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
(M,lV).--National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M,III).-De-
partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (MJ).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM,IV).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all manufacturing industries (EOM,lV).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM,Vf).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure
for previous month to obtain current figure
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (EOQ,VI).--Board Of Governors Of
the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises to value of corporate product in
1958 dollars) ({^.-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, National Income Division
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
Qwmm or PUBUC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON, o.c. 2*4*12
POSTAGE AND FEES PAID
U.S.
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
OFFICIAL. BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
Titles end Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes-Con.
28 OTHER SELECTED U.S.
SERIES
81. Index of COOS«™<K jmc*s (M,v).--Ikp3ftm€nt of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;
seasonal adjustment by Bweau of tire Census
82. Federal cash P<iyww«ts t« the public (M,VIU).»Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of ttn President, Bureau of trie Budget; seasonal
adjustment by the Bureau of the Census
83. F*d<mil cash receipt fowe tU p*bJk (Q,M,vill).-Treasury Department, Bureau of
Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of tie Budget; seasonal
adjustment by toe Bureau of the Census
84. Federal eosJ* surplus or deficit (QrM,vni),-Tre5sury Department, Bureau of Accounts,
and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget; seasonal adjustment
by the Bureau of tfoe Census
85. P«fc«pt charge In. total 'U.S. moo«y supply (demand deposits plus currency) (M,VI).~
Board of Governors of ttie federal Reserve System
112. Net change in bank lows to businesses (M,VI).»Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of ttie Census
113. Net change in consumer instalfefrnt debt (MfVl).--B03rd Of GovemctS Of tf)6 F«fcTll
Reserve System
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills {M,Vl),»Boarti Of &OVtWi0f$ Of
the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
115. Yield on lomg^erm Treasury bonds (M,VI).--Treasury Department; fto seasonal sdjnstment
116. Yield on new issues of high-grad* cwporat* bonds (M,VI),»FirSt National City BSftR
of New York and Treasury Departmerrt; rvo seasonal adjustment
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M,VI).~The Bond Buyer, HO Se3S0(1,81 M*
justment
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (MfVI).--Federal Housing Administration;
84, Exjxxtt, «xclt^mg wilittjry aid shipments, total (M,vii).^Department of Commerce,
Bureau of tne Census
87* G«neroj imports, t«t«f {M, vii). --department of Conraierce, Bureau of tne Census
89. Merchandise trad* bounce (series 86 minus series 87) (M, VI I).- Department Of Com-
werce, Bureau of the Census
no seasonal adjustment
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index
of industrial
Development
production (M,IX).-Organization for Economic Co-operation and
122. United Kingdom, index of industriol production (M,IX).-Central Statistical Off!Ce
89. Excels ol receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments (Q,V 1 1). -Department Of
e, Office of Business Economics
90. Defense 0ep«irtwe«t obltgfttioiis, procurement (M,vill). -Department of Defense, Fiscal
Analysts Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of tne Census
(London)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M,IX).--Dorflinion Bureau Of Statistics (Ottawa)
125. West Germany,
index of industrial production (M,IX).~$tatiStiSCheS Bundesamt
(Wiesbaden)
91. Defers* Depofiwwmt obligations, total (M,V I II). -Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
126. France, index of industrial production (MJX).-lnStftut National de Statistfqtie et d©S
92. Military pftn» compel ewords, U.S. business firms (M,vlll).-~Departinent of Defense,
Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M,iX),-lnstituto Centrale di Statistics (Rome)
Etudes Economiques (Paris)
93. Free reserves (member Ixmk excess reserves minus borrowings) (M,VI). --Board Of GOV-
ernors of the federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
94, Index af construction contracts,
l valu« (M,III).~F. W. Dodge Corporation
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M,IX).~Mimstry of International Trade and
Industry (Tokyo); seasonal adjustment by compiler and Bureau of ttie Census
. . . United Stotes, index of industrial production (M,II).--See Series 47.
95. Surplus or delicti, PedemI income and product account (Q,V 1 1 1). -Department Of COfll-
nerce, Office of Business Economics
96. Mortufacrurars* unfilled ode rs, durable goods industries (EOM, Ill).--Departflient Of Com-
raerce, Bureau of the Census
DIFFUSION INDEXES
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the same number and are obtained from the same
sources. See sources above for 01, 05, 06, Oil, D19, 023, 041, 047, 054, and 061.
Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ,lll).-NatiOna! Industrial COftfer-
ence Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
98* P*rc*fit chang* in total U.S. mon«y supply (demand deposits and currency)
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB. (Q).--First National City Bank of New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted
by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
and com-
mercial bonk time deposits (M,vi).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
99. M«w orders, defense products (M,VllO.-Departmefit of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
D35. Net soles, total manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Q,VI).--B03rd
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
111. Gross retained comings of nonfinonciol corporations (Q,lH).--Board of Governors Ofthe
Federal Reserve System
D48. Freight cat-loadings (Q).-Association of American Railroads; no seasonal adjustment
D58, Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
@FedFRASER