Full text of Business Conditions Digest : November 1975
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This report was prepared In the Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication areBarry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review, Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods, Betty F. Tunstall-Collection and compilation of basic data. (Telephone 301-763-7106) The cooperation of various government and private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources at the back of this report. U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Rogers C. B. Morton, Secretary James L. Pate, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee established by the Office of Management and Budget. The committee consists of the following persons: BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS George Jaszi, Director Morris R. Goldman, Deputy Director Beatrice N. Vaccara, Associate Director for National Analysis and Projections Feliks Tamm, Editor Julius Shiskin, Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor Joseph W. Duncan, Office of Management and Budget Sidney L. Jones, Department of the Treasury Burton G. Malkiel, Council of Economic Advisers, Executive Office of the President J. Cortland Peret, Federal Reserve Board Beatrice N. Vaccara, bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and final expenditures for the personal, business, foreign, and government sectors of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total of the final expenditures, which equals the total of the receipts, is known as gross national product, the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output. GNP is defined as the total market value of the final output of goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. CYCLICAL INDICATORS are economic time series which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to movements in aggregate economic activity. In this report, the series on the NBER's list of cyclical indicators are classified by economic process and by cyclical timing. These indicators were selected primarily on the basis of their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS data provide information on the plans of businessmen and consumers regarding their major economic activities in the near future. This information is considered to be a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication of the state of confidence concerning the economic outlook. A number of surveys by vario us organ iza tions and government agencies have been developed in recent years to ascertain anticipations and intentions. The results of some of these surveys, expressed as time series, are presented in this report. Subscription price, including supplements, is $55.25 a year ($13.85 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are $4.35. Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below), This monthly report brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts and forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions and was based largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Some other approaches commonly used by students of economic conditions include econometric models and anticipations and intentions data. The econometric model concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships among consumption, private investment, government, and various components of the major aggregates to generate forecasts of gross national product and its composition. Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of businessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of the content of Business Cycle Developments has been retained in this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of other approaches have been added to make it more generally useful to those concerned with an evaluation of current business conditions and prospects. The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not to be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau of Economic Analysis or any other government agency of any particular approach to economic analysis. This report is intended only to provide statistical information so arranged as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's economy. Almost all of the basic data presented in this report have been published by their source agencies. A series finding guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and data sources, is shown at the back of this report. enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. BCD New Features and Changes for This Issue iii METHOD OF PRESENTATION BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST Seasonal Adjustments 1 MCD Moving Averages 1 Reference Turning Dates 1 Section A. National Income and Product 1 Section B. Cyclical Indicators 2 NOVEMBER 1975 Section C. Anticipations and Intentions 3 Data Through October Series ES1 No. 75-11 Section D. Other Key Indicators 3 Section E. Analytical Measures 3 Section F. International Comparisons 3 How to Read Charts 4 How to Locate a Series 4 Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes 5 PART I. CHARTS ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Gross National Product National and Personal Income 9 10 C1 I Aggregate Series C2 | Diffusion I ndexes 44 46 Personal Consumption Expenditures 11 A4 A5 A6 Gross Private Domestic Investment 12 Foreign Trade 13 Government Purchases of Goods and Services . . 14 Foreign T r a d e 48 A7 Final Sales and Inventories 15 Balance of Payments and Major Components . . . 49 Federal Government Activities 54 Price Movements 56 A8 A9 A10 A11 National Income Components 16 Saving 17 Real Gross National Product 18 Shares of GNP and National Income 19 Wages and Productivity Civilian Labor Force and Major Components 58 ... 60 Actual and Potential Gross National Product . . . 61 62 Employment and Unemployment 20 Analytical Ratios Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade . . 23 Diffusion Indexes 63 Fixed Capital Investment 25 Rates of Change 65 Inventories and Inventory Investment 28 Prices, Costs, and Profits 30 Money and Credit 33 Selected Indicators by Timing B7 B8 D3 D4 D5 D6 ANALYTICAL MEASURES CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 OTHER KEY INDICATORS Composite I ndexes NBER Short List 37 39 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Consumer Prices 66 Industrial Production 67 Stock Prices 68 The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through September 1, 1980. PART II. TABLES a ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT A1 A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 A9 A10 A11 Gross National Product National and Personal Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Gross Private Domestic Investment Foreign Trade Government Purchases of Goods and Services . . Final Sales and Inventories National Income Components Saving Real Gross National Product Shares of GNP and National Income B1 B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical T i m i n g Employment and Unemployment Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade . . Fixed Capital Investment I nventories and I nventory I nvestment Prices, Costs, and Profits Money and Credit Selected Indicators b y T i m i n g Composite I ndexes 69 69 70 70 71 71 71 71 72 72 73 Aggregate Series Diffusion Indexes 84 84 D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 OTHER KEY INDICATORS Foreign Trade Balance of Payments and Major Components . . . Federal Government Activities Price Movements Wages and Productivity Civilian Labor Force and Major Components . . . 86 87 89 90 92 94 E2 E3 E4 Actual and Potential GNP Analytical Ratios Diffusion Indexes Selected Diffusion Index Components ANALYTICAL MEASURES 74 76 77 78 79 81 83 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Consumer Prices Industrial Production Stock Prices 95 96 97 99 103 103 104 PART III. APPENDIXES A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See December 1974 issue) QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See September 1975 issue) B. Current Adjustment Factors (See October 1975issue) C. D. E. F. Historical Data for Selected Series (See "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide"in October 1975 issue) Descriptions and Sources of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" in October 1975issue) Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970 Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators (See April 1975issue) G. Experimental Data and Analyses Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide (See October 1975issue) Titles and Sources of Series (See October 1975issue) 105 106 eaders are invited to submit comments and iggestions concerning this publication. ddress them to Feliks Tamm, Statistical ldicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis, .S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20233 NEW FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE A limited number of changes are made from time to time to incorporate recent findChanges in this issue are as follows: ings of economic research, newly avail- 1. New composite indexes of coincident and lagging Indicators are introduced in this issue. These indexes mark bhe completion of the second phase of a comprehensive review 3f cyclical indicators begun in September 1972. (See page Lii of the May 1975 BCD in which the results of the first phase were published?!"" The last phase, which is scheduled Cor completion early in 1976, consists of a review of those cyclical indicators which are not included in the composite indexes, and it probably will result in the addition of some aew indicators and the deletion of some current ones. able time series, and revisions made by source agencies in concept, composition, comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc. Changes may result in revisions of data, additions or The new coincident index is composed of four indicators: Series kl—Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls; series +7—Index of industrial production; series X23^—Personal income Less transfer payments, deflated; and series 56D—Manufacturing and trade sales, deflated. deletions of series, changes in placement of series in relation to other series, changes in composition of The new 6-series lagging index includes two of the original Index components: Series 62—Labor cost per unit of output, and series 72—Commercial and industrial loans outstanding. A third component of the original index, series 71—Manufacturing and brade inventories, is included in the new index in deflated form (series 71D). Of the three remaining components, two (series £1—Average duration of unemployment and X251—Ratio of consumer Installment debt to personal income) are new to BCD, and the third (series 109—Average prime rate charged by banks) was included in the report but not in the index. Background information on the composition of the new indexes is given in the article "New Composite Indexes of Coincident and Lagging Indicators11 (see page v) by Professor Victor Zarnowitz of the Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, and Dr. Charlotte Boschan of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Appendixes to this article contain descriptions for the components Df the new indexes and historical data for the indexes and their aew components. (Continued on page iv.) The December issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for release on December 31• ill indexes, etc. The new composite indexes (leading, coincident, and lagging) are charted on page 37 of BCD, and current data for these indexes are shown on page 83. 2. The new reverse trend adjusted composite index of leading indicators has been revised from 19^8 to date to incorporate the trend of the new coincident index. Since its introduction in May, this version of the leading index had contained the trend of series 825—Composite index of five coincident indicators, deflated. This index is charted on page 379 and current data are shown on page 83. 3. New NBER business cycle turning dates, introduced in the May 1975 BCD, have now been incorporated throughout the report. These dates are listed in appendix E. h. Appendix G contains charts and current data for components of the new composite index of leading indicators (formerly shown on pages vi and vii). The old leading indexes (series 810 and 8ll) are also shown in this appendix. IV NEW COMPOSITE INDEXES OF COINCIDENT AND LAGGING INDICATORS by Victor Zarnowitz and Charlotte Boschan As part of the comprehensive review of cyclical indicators conducted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), new composite indexes of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators have been constructed in an effort to improve these tools of current business analysis and forecasting.1 Major changes in the economy and new and revised statistical data and analytical techniques require, from time to time, reappraisals of this as well as other systems of economic intelligence. An article published in this report a few months ago described the historical background, objectives, and methods of the study and provided information on the composition, construction, and record of the leading indexes.2 This paper extends the analysis to the coincident and lagging indexes and their components. Many economists engaged in the task of interpreting current and predicting near-future business conditions find it useful to know which time series have relatively pronounced and consistent cyclical characteristics, what these characteristics are according to historical measures, and, in particular, what the timing sequences among these series tend to be. Studies of indicators show that the principal leading, coincident, and lagging series represent variables that are important within the economic system, particularly for the business-cycle processes, and that the relationships among them are consistent with general economic reasoning as well as empirical evidence. The preferred indicators are series that are judged to be of high economic significance and that are also well qualified according to other criteria: statistical adequacy, consistency of cyclical timing, conformity to general business expansions and contractions, smoothness, and currency. Various measures are used to quantify these characteristics and the results are combined into component and total scores according to a formal, detailed weighting scheme.3 This method provides a systematic and mostly objective and replicable way to evaluate the usefulness of time series as leading or confirming indicators and to estimate their prognostic or diagnostic significance. As a result of this scoring and screening, we find many indicators whose past movements tend to show certain recurrent patterns and relationships. These observed regularities are consistent with not one but several plausible and not mutually exclusive hypotheses about why business cycles occur and how they develop. Indeed, there is ample empirical support for the view that each cycle has some causes and aspects that are unique to it, along with many that it shares with other cycles. How individual indicators perform on a particular occasion, therefore, depends not only on the persistent tendencies within the system but also on the then prevailing distinct conditions and events. No single indicator can be depended on all the time; indeed, the need to monitor a large variety of indicators is widely recognized by business analysts and forecasters. Combining selected indicators into composite indexes can help in 1 Major parts of the project were carried out by members of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and substantial contributions were made by the staff of the Statistical Indicators Division of BEA. This staff is under the immediate direction of Feliks Tamm, Chief of the Division, and is under the general supervision of Beatrice N. Vaccara, Associate Director for National Analysis and Projections. The study benefitted from the advice, suggestions, and guidance of the BCD Technical Committee under the chairmanship of Edgar R. Fiedler, U.S. Department of the Treasury. The authors also gratefully acknowledge the helpful advice of Geoffrey H. Moore of NBER and Julius Shiskin of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2 V. Zarnowitz and C. Boschan, "Cyclical Indicators: An Evaluation and New Leading Indexes," Business Conditions Digest (BCD), May 1975. 3 Zarnowitz and Boschan, op. cit., pp. vi-viii. this task, but the main reason for using such indexes is that they are likely to produce more true and fewer false signals than any of their individual components. This is so not only because business cycles have multiple cases and symptoms, but also because much of the independent measurement errors and other "noise" in the included series are smoothed out in the index as a whole. PRINCIPAL COINCIDENT INDICATORS Business cycles have been defined as recurrent sequences of cumulative expansions and contractions in various economic processes which are both sufficiently diffused and sufficiently synchronized to show up as major fluctuations in comprehensive measures of employment, production, income, and sales.4 Accordingly, turning points in these series have served as the primary observations for estimating the reference dates of business cycle peaks and troughs. It is obvious that the series so used are, as a group, necessarily roughly coincident, although occasional deviations from coincident timing do occur for the individual components of the group. Although we did not decide from the outset that only those indicators which are measures of aggregate economic activity 5 should be included in the coincident index, all series actually selected do represent such measures. With the adopted strict requirements of proper cyclical timing at both peaks and troughs and other attributes, it turned out that, of the many indicators examined, only the comprehensive series on production, employment, real income, and real sales qualified as components of the overall coincident index. Nominal aggregates, such as national income and product, which played a large role in historical business-cycle analysis,6 were excluded from the new composite index. These indicators are, of course, still important and in need of being continually observed. However, it would not be helpful to include currentdollar series in the new index of coincident indicators. Their failure to conform to the recent recessions was widespread, reflecting the intensity and persistence of contemporaneous inflation. And, unfortunately, the possibility that such recessionscum-inflation might recur cannot be ruled out. Specifically, nominal GNP did not contract at all in the 1970 recession and had only one short decline during the 1974-75 recession (in the first quarter of 1975). Final sales (GNP minus change in business inventories) also dipped but once, in 1958, 4 Business cycles of historical experience vary greatly in duration, but as a rule several years are required for the cumulative movements to complete a round from peak to peak or trough to trough. For more detail and references to literature, see V. Zarnowitz, "The Business Cycle Today: An Introduction," in Zarnowitz, ed., The Business Cycle Today, New York: NBER, 1972, p. 2 ff. 5 Aggregate economic activity, like so many general concepts in economic analysis, is difficult to define precisely. It is an open concept and can be established only by approximations in empirical research. There is no single time series that measures it adequately, only a variety of statistical data representing some of its different aspects. On the interpretation and uses of that notion in defining and dating business cycles, see Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell, Measuring Business Cycles, New York: NBER, 1947, pp. 3-8, 71-76. 6 In fact, they were often cast in the star roles. Thus, Burns and Mitchell, op. cit., pp. 72-73, note that GNP at current prices or, better, the part of GNP that "passes through the market" (i.e., excluding imputations) would be an acceptable measure of aggregate economic activity if a satisfactory monthly or quarterly series of this type were available for a sufficiently long time period. and not since. Similarly, personal income had its last, mild contraction in 1957-58. Its continued rise thereafter, through the recessions of 1960, 1970, and 1974-75, reflects to a large extent structural changes in the economy and the labor force as well as the workings of automatic stabilizers. Manufacturing and trade sales declined slightly or flattened during the 1970 recession and fell more decisively but briefly late in 1974. Only the manufacturing components of that series conformed well to the cyclical movements in the economy after 1960; retail store sales trended sharply upward throughout. In sum, the current-dollar aggregates of income and sales have recently been so dominated by upward trends reflecting the general price and wage increases and structural and institutional changes (growth of the cyclically more stable sectors of the economy and massive transfer payments) that they have become much less sensitive to slowdowns and declines in aggregate production and employment. As a result, these series do not rate well on the record of their recent cyclical performance, and even their overall scores, which refer to the sample period 1947-70, are reduced, in some cases seriously. Four aggregates in real terms definitely qualify as components of the coincident index: Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey; index of industrial production; personal income, excluding transfer payments, in 1967 dollars; and manufacturing and trade sales in 1967 dollars. These are, in retrospect and prospect, the best coincident indicators in the following economic-process groups: I. Employment and Unemployment; II. Production and Income; and III. Consumption and Distribution. Our analysis and scoring disclose no other appropriate choices for the index of indicators with coincident timing at both peaks and troughs of business cycles, in either these or other groups. This may seem surprising in view of the high degree of simultaneity in the system of economic relationships, the pervasiveness of cyclical movements, and the large number of alternatives considered in our selection procedure. The explanation lies in the strictness of the requirements to be met by the component series (nearly coincident timing and high scores for a variety of characteristics) and by the index as a whole (comprehensive coverage with a minimum of duplication), plus the fact that the dispersion of cyclical timing in monthly data is quite pronounced, despite the strong tendency for many series to move together. Each of the four aggregates has some highly cyclical components (e.g., employees in manufacturing; production of durable goods; wages and salaries in the goods-producing sector, i.e., mining, manufacturing, construction; manufacturers' shipments) and other components that are much less cyclical and would not, by themselves, qualify for inclusion in the index. Using the more cyclical components alone would unduly restrict the coverage and reduce the representativeness of the index (with manufacturing being overemphasized, and increasingly so over time); also, the components of the index would then resemble each other rather too closely. On the other hand, using the more cyclical series along with the corresponding aggregates would make for too much duplication. Further discussion of the selected series and some of those that were screened out will explain our decisions on the makeup of the index in more detail. Table 1, which shows the average timing and scores for the new and old indexes of coincident indicators and their components, sums up an important part of the underlying evidence and explains, in the notes, some of the underlying procedures. Chart 1 illustrates the behavior of the components of the indexes since 1947. engaged in nonagricultural activities (BCD series 42), has substantially lower scores on conformity and smoothness as well as timing (which lacks consistency because leads are mixed with rough coincidences at peaks). Similarly, man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (BCD 48) shows too many leads at peaks (presumably reflecting the early timing of the average hours of work per week) to score well as a coincider. In addition, we have analyzed 12 series on the numbers of employees or production workers in the sectors of the economy that are particularly sensitive cyclically (manufacturing, mining, construction, transportation, public utilities, and various combinations of these industries) and found that none of these performs better than BCD 41, which, of course, also has the advantage of broader coverage.7 The total unemployment rate (BCD 43), a component of the old coincident indexes, is not included in the new index. This series is certainly one of the principal and most widely used measures of the economy's performance.8 However, the overall unemployment rate, like most of the component rates for individual sex, age, and race categories, tends clearly to lead at peaks and lag at troughs of business cycles, and its timing classification is L, Lg, U (undefined for both types of turn combined). This is so because employment typically rises slowly in both the initial and the late stages of a business expansion, whereas the labor force grows at a fairly steady pace.9 Production and Income The index of industrial production (BCD 47) reflects largely changes in manufacturing output, which on the whole remains highly sensitive to cyclical fluctuations in demand. However, the relative importance of this sector has for some time now been declining, whereas the cyclically more stable service industries have been gaining. Today, a downturn of industrial production will not pull the rest of the economy promptly into a recession given the rising trend in the large services sector. Thus, structural change in the industrial composition of GNP probably explains the shift from the closely coincident timing of the production index at peaks in the pre-World War II period to the short leads in the 1948-69 period. At troughs, on the other hand, no change in timing would be expected, and none has occurred.10 Overall, the cyclical timing of the index remains approximately coincident, as would be expected. Persona! income qualifies for inclusion in the composite index if and only if it is expressed in constant dollars, as already 7 Employment in manufacturing and other goods-producing industries has led at business cycle peaks of the period 1948-69 and, consequently, so has (by much shorter intervals) total nonagricultural employment through the 1950's. More recently, however, and particularly in 1974, nonagricultural employment as a whole lagged at peaks, apparently mainly because of labor-hoarding in the service industries. (The long lag in 1974 was perhaps induced by the special events and uncertainties of the timeenergy crisis, supply constraints, etc. Employment in goods-producing industries started moving down gently at the beginning of 1974, total employment according to the establishment survey rose, if slowly, through October 1974.) 8 Unemployment statistics, of course, measure economic inactivity rather than activity, hence their conformity to business cycles is inverse. 9 The reasons why employment recovers relatively slowly lie in the initial uncertainties about the prospects for an enduring expansion and the concurrent rises in the average workweek and labor productivity. The reasons why employment grows less in late than in mid-expansion stages lie in either demand slowdowns or supply constraints, or both. 10 In 1920-37, industrial production had roughly coincident timing at all but one of the five business cycle peaks (median, O); in 1948-69, it had three rough coincidences and two longer leads (median, -3 months). At troughs, roughly coincident timing was the rule in both 1921-38 and 1949-70 (with only one exception, in the earlier period). Employment and Unemployment The employment component in the old coincident indexes, employees on nonagricultural payrolls (BCD series 41), is without doubt the best indicator in this group and is retained for the new index. The aggregate from the labor force survey, persons VI TABLE 1. AVERAGE TIMING AND SCORES, NEW AND OLD INDEXES OF COINCIDENT INDICATORS AND THEIR COMPONENTS, 1947-1970 Median leads (-) or lags (+) (in months) Line Number and title of series1 (1) Scores2 Troughs All turns Economic significance Statistical adequacy Timing3 Conformity Smoothness Currency Total4 (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) Components of New Index _. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls.. *47. Index of industrial production X234. Personal income, less transfers, deflated by PCE. 56d. Manufacturing and trade sales, deflated -2 0 100 78 89 80 100 80 88 -3 -1/2 90 72 90 85 100 80 86 0 -1/2 90 70 74 64 100 80 78 -3 -1/2 90 65 90 75 80 53 78 +3 -2 -1/2 -1 90 90 78 70 80 30 80 100 80 80 -1 Components of BCD Indexes (BCD 820 and 825) 10 11 12 13 14 *43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted) *52. Personal income 52d. Personal income, deflated by PCE *56. Manufacturing and trade sales Average, 4 series, new index (lines 1-4) 7 Average, 5 s e r i e s , BCD 820 ( l i n e s 1, 2, 5, 6, 8 ) 8 Average, 5 series, BCD 825 (lines 1, 2, 4, 5, 7 ) 9 New index 10 BCD 820 1 * BCD 825 x2 -7 5 6 62 56 0 -1/2 90 70 76 48 100 80 76 0 -1 90 65 92 75 80 53 79 0 -1/2 92 71 86 76 95 73 83 0 -1/2 92 73 58 70 92 75 74 0 0 0 0 -1/2 0 0 -1/2 92 92 92 92 73 71 73 73 70 92 91 92 74 88 88 88 92 100 100 100 75 73 75 75 78 87 87 88 0 -3 -2 1/2 -3 -3 -1 -1 -2 1 Numbers preceded by asterisks (*) refer to series included in the original index (BCD 820). The underlined numbers refer to series included in the deflated index (BCD 825). 2 A11 scores are listed on the 0-to-100 scale. 3 These are scores for all turns; the separate peak and trough scores are not given. All series are scored on the assumption of roughly coincident timing at peaks and troughs. 4 Weighted averages of scores in columns 4-9. The weights are economic significance, statistical adequacy, and conformity—16.7 percent each; timing, 26.7 percent; smoothness, 13.3 percent; currency, 10 percent. See BCD, May 1975, pp. vi-viii, for further detail. 5 When the unemployment rate is treated as leading at peaks and lagging at troughs (L, Lg), instead of roughly coincident (C) at all turns, its timing score is 75 and its total score is 80. 6 Personal income scores better—34 for timing, 62 overall—when treated as roughly coincident at peaks and leading at troughs (C, L, U—timing for both types of turn combined is undefined). 7 Columns 1-3, medians; columns 4-10, means. 8 Columns 1-3, medians; columns 4-10, means. Crediting series 43 and 52 for noncoincident timing (see footnotes 5 and 6) would raise the timing score (col. 6) to 76 and the total score (col. 10) to 79. 9 Columns 1-3, medians; columns 4-10, means. Crediting series 43 for noncoincident timing (see footnote 5) would raise the timing score (col. 6) to 84 and the total score (col. 10) to 82. 10 Entries in columns 4, 5, and 9 are the same as the corresponding entries in line 9. lx Entries in columns 4, 5, and 9 are the same as the corresponding entries in line 10. 12 Entries in columns 4, 5, and 9 are the same as the corresponding entries in line 11. noted. 11 In addition, improved results are obtained by eliminating transfer payments, which contain large countercyclical elements such as unemployment compensation. Exclusion of transfer payments (a) adds to the amplitudes of declines in real personal income during business contractions, which increases the cyclical conformity of the series, and (b) makes the data appreciably smoother.12 The effects of the deduction of trans- fers on cyclical timing are slight (limited to the single episode of the 1969-70 recession and somewhat uncertain). It can be argued that one should judge the series excluding transfer payments to be of somewhat lower economic significance, since such payments constitute an important source of income to, and an important factor affecting the behavior of, many households. Even if we allowed for this, however, we would still find it advisable to use real personal income excluding transfer payments (series X234) as the component of the coincident index. The question of whether real GNP should be included in the index was carefully examined. GNP in 1958 dollars is the most comprehensive of the widely used measures of aggregate economic activity, and it scores well as a coincident indicator at both peaks and troughs. On the other hand, it is only available quarterly and is subject to considerable revisions. An analysis of experimental indexes that alternatively do and do not include real GNP shows that inclusion of that series would cause frequent revisions in the index, which, though small, are nevertheless apt to be troublesome. Moreover, the alternative indexes (with and without real GNP) are remarkably similar. It 1 * Specifically, the adjustment for price changes is done here by means of the deflator for personal consumption expenditures. We tested the possibility that using the consumer price index would lead to improvements. Whether CPI or the PCE deflator is used matters very little empirically (the only noticeable difference is that the use of CPI results in a slightly better conforming behavior of real personal income during the 1970 recession), but on conceptual grounds the latter is preferable, for this purpose, in terms of weights and coverage. 12 This shows up in a reduction of the ratio f/C", whereTis the average month-to-month percentage change, without regard to sign, in the irregular component and C is the same for the cyclical component. 7/C is .85 for real personal income including transfer payments; it is .74 for real personal income excluding transfer payments. VII CHART 1. COMPONENTS OF THE COINCIDENT COMPOSITE INDEXES (NOV .) (OC r.) P T 1 1 AUG.) p JULY) MAY) P T II j m 1 1 1MI I I IN M 1 1 1 1 11 (APR.) T N H (APR.)IFEB.) P T (DEC .) (NOV.) P T 11 I 11 1 1 1I n 11 1 II II 1 III 111]3 n H Coiiponents of the i ew ir dex: ^^ : / o EE 700 600 3 500 | 400 © 0 © -2 Q -2 • Q y ^ © 56D. -3 Ms nufac uring and rade ;ales, o A +1 ^f 1967 dolla s (bi -3 > -6 0 o 1 .dol. ^-^^ ^- EE t 52. Personal income (ann. rate, bil. dol. 600 * ^ — O 0 0 +3 © ^^ -i -6 o © 0 43 / I © 0 \ J H W ^ ^^ ^^ 60 I Unc mploy ment rate, total -5 o / J © -1 -1 © i •.:• ^ -•* o +3 o _i 40 [perce nt-iiiverte 1 sea!e) -2 * \\ ^ © +3 -7 o —^%# 3 4 5 < o y s+ V +9 - \ EE V +3 | | MI I I I III III I I I I I I fff I I I 11 i 1 I I I I I i l l i n 111 • 1 1 1 III III III I I I III I I I III II . 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates. • T h i s is not necessarily the peak but is the high for the available data. 180 160 140 120 100 «*. manuTaciurmg ana iraae saies \u\\. U U I J 1 ? © -3 m. ...» CP 56. -3 - •o ^ n mm -2 ol -2 0 © 1400 1200 1000 ^ 800 1 Components of the old index not in the new index: , 100 i 80 ^ 0 0 -1 120 c* © -1 O \ : • 2 CO 0 © -l -10 c a 80 o -1 • _ -i ™ CO -3 X234. Personal income less transfers, 1967 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol. © 0 80 75 70 65 60 55 140 120 100 f . / -i w © 0 0 / EE 0 -3 o -6 o -^/ © 0 47. Index of industrial production (1967=100) +1 * o O +1 0 —^ 0 9 x o +3 —1+ fffl iiSi -^-^ 0 -2 © III 0 -5 © "I ^ 41. Em, loyees on lonag iculti ral p; yrolh (mil! ions) -3 11 1 1 i1n 3 VIM 7 CO 8 9 listed timing measures and scores refer. The new index also has a more nearly coincident timing, with less dispersion around the means, than either of the old indexes, but these differences are small and have very little effect on the scores of the composites.16 was therefore concluded that the advantage of keeping the coincident index more current and less affected by data revisions outweighed the advantage of including a component indicator that covered all sectors of the economy. Consumption and Distribution The record of manufacturers' sales (shipments) as a cyclical indicator is considerably better than that of trade sales, but it is nevertheless advisable to combine the two since this adds to the breadth and diversity of coverage of the index and the resulting aggregate still has acceptable timing and overall scores.13 Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (BCD 56) scores slightly better than the constant-dollar series (56d) in the period 1948-70, due mainly to the superior performance of the former in the 1949 recession when prices fell. However, in the 1970 recession, with prices rising, it was definitely the deflated aggregate that had the better record of cyclical timing, conformity, and amplitude, so the more recent and presumably more relevant experience suggested the use of sales in constant rather than current dollars. Developments in 1973-74 confirm a fortiori the lesson of 1970. PRINCIPAL LAGGING INDICATORS Indicators that lag consistently at business downturns as well as upturns are in short supply, since lags were much less frequent at peaks of the recent business cycles than at troughs (whereas leads were much more frequent at peaks than at troughs). Also, lags tended to be shorter (and leads, longer) at the upper than at the lower turning points. These asymmetries which are specific to the post-World War II era—the cyclical timing distributions in earlier periods were more symmetricalare well documented and are not attributable in any significant measure to errors in the accepted business cycle chronology. Rather, they are related to major changes in the economy that have altered the course of U.S. business cycles.17 Since the index to be constructed is one that would provide consistent confirmations of both downturns and upturns in general business activity, all of its components must lag at both peaks and troughs and score well on that basis. This limitation is a serious one, 18 since it causes the exclusion of some important series which lagged systematically at either business downturns or upturns but not at both. The section that follows explains the selection of the comoonents of the new lagging index and gives the reasons why some series in the old index and others were hot included. The series surveyed are again grouped by economic process. Table 2 provides supporting summary measures for the lagging indexes and their components. Chart 3 shows how the individual series behaved during the expansions and contractions of the period 1947-75. COMPOSITE INDEXES OF COINCIDENT INDICATORS While all components of the new coincident index have the proper timing characteristics at both peaks and troughs, two series from the old indexes—unemployment rate and personal income—fail to so qualify. (See pp. vi and vii and table I, notes 5 and 6.) Consequently, the components of the new index score, on the average, better than the components of either BCD 820 or BCD 825 (table 1, lines 9-11). Chart 2 compares the new coincident index with the two old ones (BCD 820 and BCD 825). It shows that the indexes, while generally coincident at troughs, often led by short intervals at business cycle peaks. In fact, BCD 825 had leads at each of the five peaks of the 1948-69 period. However, some of these departures from coincident timing, though they must be accepted for technical reasons and procedural consistency, involve very small differences between values of the series in adjacent months and probably have little significance.14 During the last recession, BCD 820, reflecting in large measure inflation, declined only for the 6 months between September 1974 and March 1975, whereas the new index and BCD 825, neither of which includes any current-dollar series, had contractions beginning in November 1973. Data on real GNP, industrial production, employment in the goodsproducing sector, unemployment, etc., indicate that the economy reached its last cyclical peak late in 1973, not almost a year later; so the evidence from the post-sample period (1971-75) is unfavorable to BCD 820 as a coincident index. 15 To sum up, the new index is preferred in the light of (1) the evaluation of the individual series included in table 1, and (2) the events of the years that followed the period to which the Employment and Unemployment The best lagging indicators in this group are the long-term unemployment rate (BCD 44) and average duration of unemployment (series X1), both used in inverted form. Of the two, the latter is on the whole preferable because it is more comprehensive (referring to all unemployment and not only the long-duration unemployment), has a somewhat more consistent timing, and is not affected by rounding in the way the former series is. 19 The long-term unemployment rate (persons unemployed 15 weeks and over), a component of the old lagging index, is therefore replaced in the new index by the average duration of unemployment. Several other indicators in this group were analyzed, such as the number of those unemployed 15 weeks and over, the number of those unemployed 27 weeks and over, and the rate 16 In fact, the direct scores for the performance of each of the three indexes in the sample period are almost identical and would not permit a meaningful discrimination between these constructs (table 1, lines 12-14). 17 On the relative frequencies of leads, rough coincidences, and lags in the period 1948-70, see Zamowitz and Boschan in BCD, May 1975, p. viii. A complete account of the evidence will be given in a separate report. 18 As is the corresponding restriction for the index of leading indicators; see Zarnowitz and Boschan, op. cit., note 23 and app. A. 19 The series on unemployment rates often move in steps (appearing to have periods of unchanged values separated by large discrete changes), but this is merely the effect of rounding, the figures being carried only to the first decimal. Because of the adopted convention of locating the specific turning points at the end of the high and low steps, the measured timing of the unemployment rate series is more lagging than that of the corresponding series on the numbers of the unemployed (which, like the unemployment-duration data, have no steps). But this, of course, is merely a statistical artifact (as is the apparent greater smoothness of the rates). 13 The cyclical behavior of manufacturers' sales in constant dollars resembles closely that of manufacturing production and hence rather well, too, that of the total industrial production index. Inclusion in the composite index of both the broad aggregate for real sales and industrial production in effect gives a large weight to manufacturing, and the question arises whether this weight is not in some sense excessive. We have therefore examined the alternative of excluding manufacturers' sales and using total wholesale and retail sales (in 1967 dollars) only. However, the two deflated trade sales series (wholesale and retail) do not score well enough as coincident indicators, separately or jointly, to qualify as components of the index. 14 Note, in particular, the minuscule decline in the index before the business peak in August 1957, which causes the index to show a lead of 5 months. 15 For a survey of the evidence, see Geoffrey H. Moore, "Slowdowns, Recessions, and Inflation: Some Issues and Answers," Explorations in Economic Research, vol. 2, No. 2, spring, 1975. IX CHART 2. COMPOSITE INDEXES OF COINCIDENT INDICATORS .) (NOV P (OC JULY)(MAY) r.) P T 1 1 11 1 1 111 111 AUG.) (APR.) p T T IM H I 11 II M (APR.)(FEB.) P I PI I p 11 H :.) (Nov.) (DEC T T I I I III 1 1 11II III I I I 1 1 l]j \\ III I I I I I I 0 | Index: 1967=100 111 1 III EE -2 o y i 0 New index of 4 80 / indica tors coinc ident 180 170 160 150 140 130 3 120 fi 110 £ 100 90 (series 41, 47 560 X234) 0 / EE 0 -5 o > > 0 0 / / J -2 / • o v / ^ > 0 0 -1 o Sv / I f O 9 0 / Old index of 5 coincident indicators, deflateo (series O 0 41,4! , 4 7 , y 520, 560) i -2 y * > / IP 0 € V / f y c S / vJ EE / J -5 o -2 o /** p o 0 —^^ 0 -1 j J 1 Old index of 5 coincident indicators J (series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56) 0 /° 0 70 sV 0 o +3 -1 S 80 j ( mi II | M 1 Ml: • I I Ml III 1 II III III III I I I M i. If M III I I I in III Ml || ii i Ml III 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates. 60 50 0 0 7 II 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 3 -2 -5 o o; 150 140 130 _ 120 -11 110 S 100 90 40 TABLE 2. AVERAGE TIMING AND SCORES, NEW AND OLD INDEXES OF LAGGING INDICATORS AND THEIR COMPONENTS, 1947-1970 Median leads (-) or lags (+) (in months) Line Number and title of series1 Scores2 Peaks Troughs All turns Economic significance Statistical adequacy Timing3 Conformity Smoothness Currency Total4 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) Components of New Index XI. Average duration of unemployment 71d. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1967 dollars... *62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks X251. Ratio, consumer installment debt to personal income... 109. Average prime rate charged by banks +1 +8 +2 1/2 +3 1/2 90 78 89 90 70 89 80 80 86 64 100 53 80 51 80 80 73 +3 +3 +8 1/2 +11 +10 80 55 87 +1 1/2 +5 +3 1/2 80 60 86 81 100 100 83 +6 1/2 +7 +7 80 70 87 44 100 53 74 +3 1/2 +14 +4 90 95 85 62 100 100 87 +1 +5 +2 1/2 80 78 85 100 80 80 Components of BCD Index (BCD 830) 10 11 12 13 14 *44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over *61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment *71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories *67. Bank rates on short-term business loans Average, 6 series, new index (lines 1-6)? Average, 6 series, BCD 830 (lines 3, 4, 7-10) 7 New index8 BCD 8309 +1/2 +2 1/2 +1 90 80 75 66 80 53 84 5 75 +3 +4 1/2 +3 1/2 90 65 93 61 100 53 79 +3 +9 +4 90 65 86 75 80 53 77 +3 +7 1/2 +4 85 71 87 66 93 78 80 +2 +3 +1 +5 +5 +5 +3 1/2 +4 +3 85 85 85 67 71 67 85 92 90 72 88 89 87 100 100 70 78 70 78 86 84 1 Numbers preceded by asterisks (*) refer to series included in the current lagging index (BCD 830). A11 scores are listed on the 0-to-100 scale. These are scores for all turns; the separate peak and trough scores are not given. All series are scored on the assumption of lagging timing at peaks and at troughs. 4 Weighted averages of scores in columns 4-9. (For weights, see footnote 4 to table 1.) 5 When series 61 is treated as roughly coincident at peaks and lagging at troughs (C, Lg), instead of lagging at all turns, its timing score is 82, and its total score is 77. 6 Columns 1-3, medians; columns 4-10, means. 7 Columns 1-3, medians; columns 4-10, means. Crediting series 61 for nonlagging behavior (see footnote 5) would raise the timing score (col. 6) to 86 and the total score (col. 10) to 79. 8 Entries in columns 4, 5, and 9 are the same as the corresponding entries in line 11. 9 Entries in columns 4, 5, and 9 are the same as the corresponding entries in line 12. 2 3 of unemployment 27 weeks and over. None of these series qualify for inclusion in the index, mainly because their timing at peaks is not well defined. (They all lag consistently at troughs.) dollars (61 d) declined mildly in 1967, very irregularly in 1970, and decisively after mid-1974. But the timing of series 61 d, like that of series 61, must be classified as roughly coincident at peaks and lagging at troughs; it cannot be unambiguously defined for all turns. Several related series have also been found lacking the required consistency of cyclical timing. 20 The expectation that business expenditures on plant and equipment should be a lagging indicator rests mainly on the presumption that they follow, often with long distributed lags, the corresponding new investment commitments: new capital Fixed Capital Investment Business expenditures for new plant and equipment (BCD 61) is a component of the old index not included in the new one. The principal reason is that its timing at business cycle peaks has been coincident rather than lagging. Also, the cyclical conformity of this quarterly series in current dollars has been better in the earlier part of the period covered than in the recent years of strong inflation. BCD 61 had no specific contraction during the 1970 recession, its upward trend having been interrupted for one quarter only, and it rose during the last recession until the last quarter of 1974 when it started a very mild decline. Deflation strongJy reduces the upward trend in these data but has only weak effects upon their cyclical movements, except after 1966. Business fixed investment outlays in constant 20 these include (1) the monthly series on machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place), separately and combined (BCD 69); (2) the quarterly series for nonresidential fixed investment and its components, producers' durable equipment and nonresidential structures (from GNP accounts, in current and constant dollars); and (3) the monthly data corresponding to (2) (now being developed by BEA and available for several recent years, which will provide important additions to the set of principal indicators. XI CHART 3. COMPONENTS OF THE LAGGING COMPOSITE INDEXES (NOV.)'(OCT.) (JUl_Y)(MAY) P T (AUG.) (APR.) 1111111111 mm i P T (APR.HFEB.) P (DEC.) (NOV.) T A. Components of the new index: +2 X1. Average duration of unemployment (weeks-inverted scale) 8 IS: 18 200 180 <* 160 ^ 140 S 120 " 160 150 ^ 140 ^ 71D. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1967 dollars (tail, dol.) To 130 £ 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (1967=100) 120 140 120 100 -1 60 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding (tail, dol 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 109. Average prime rate (percent) +3 14 12 10 Ratio, consumer installment debt to personal income (percent) m m in in MI im MI in in m m in i m i i i in in in in MI in in iii.u.uii in 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates. XII 1975 CHART 3. COMPONENTS OF THE LAGGING COMPOSITE INDEXES—Continued (NOV.) (OCT.) P T (JULYJ(MAY) P T (AUG.HAPR.) P T (DEC.) (NOV.) (APR.)(FEB.) P P T II I H I I M J : W | M I | I M | l I I | Ml I I I I | I II | I I I [I N j l M T I I I Ml III III III B. Components of the old index not in the new index 44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale) 0 1 2 3 4 140 120 100 61. Business expenditures, plant and equipment (ann. rate, bil. dol 80 60 40 13 12 11 10 9 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (percent) 240 200 71. Manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. dol.) 160 120 2 40 Ill M l I f f I I I I I I I I I Mi; M l I I I I I I I I I M lI I I M M I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I M i l l I I I i nM I i n 1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates. XIII appropriations, contracts and orders. This they certainly d o , 2 1 but investment commitments reach their peaks so early relative to business cycle peaks that the outlays that trail behind them often decline along with, and sometimes ahead of, the economy at large. At business cycle troughs, investment commitments have typically much shorter leads and expenditures tend to lag but these lags are mostly short because, in times of low capacity utilization, orders and contracts for new capital goods are executed more promptly. 62) scores reasonably well on the strength of long and regular lags at the three business peaks and four troughs of the period 1949-61. In 1961-65, series 62 drifted downward; since 1966, it has risen strongly, except for a slowdown followed by a brief and shallow decline in 1971-72. Thus, unit labor costs turned down during the first two recessions covered (in 1948-49 and 1953-54), but rose during each of the four following recessions; they declined in each of the four recoveries of the 1950's and 1960's, but merely flattened in the recovery of 1971-72. Finally, BCD 62 increased sharply in 1973-75, particularly during the recession, and gave the first tentative indication of a decline only in August 1975. The two related quarterly series (unit labor cost for the total private economy, BCD 63, and labor cost per unit of real corporate product, BCD 68) behave similarly. 24 Clearly, the historical pattern of cyclical behavior of unit labor costs has recently been distorted by the effects of persistent and rapid inflation, with strong pressures for higher money wage rates continuing even while the productivity of labor (output per man-hour) diminished markedly as in 1973-74. Labor as well as property incomes typically share in the inflationary increases in the value of output, so that major inflations, whatever their causes, will most of the time see money wages rising faster than productivity, which implies rising nominal unit labor costs. What happens to real labor cost per unit of output depends on relative changes in prices, wages, and productivity of labor, and on how these changes are perceived by, and influence the decisions of, the employers and employees. The cyclical behavior of this variable is not very regular, though a broad tendency to lag would be expected.25 Unit labor costs, then, have definitely become less sensitive cyclically in recent years as inflation grew stronger and persisted through periods of deteriorating and poor, as well as improving and good, business conditions. But this important cost factor retains its basic character and function as a lagging indicator, although its reactions to cyclical developments in the 1970's have been considerably more muted and delayed than before. Series 62 still qualifies as a component of the lagging index, and its inclusion broadens the coverage and improves the performance of the index. Inventories and Inventory Investment Total manufacturing and trade inventories (on hand) tend to lag at both peaks and troughs.2 2 This applies to the book-value series (BCD 71) as well as to the corresponding aggregate in constant dollars (71 d). During the 1948-70 period, deflation had very little effect on these data. As illustrated by the scores, both series conformed well to the business cycles covered, except that neither declined during the 1970 recession. However, the sharp acceleration of inventory growth in 1973-74 was apparently due chiefly to rising prices; the increases in the constant-dollar series remained fairly steady. Although adjustments of inventories for the effects of inflation are, of course, known to be difficult and of uncertain quality, the new price deflators now available from the Commerce Department are substantially improved and considered adequate. They allow for the appropriate lag patterns and the characteristic LIFO-FIFO proportions in the different industries. The new deflated series 71 d is therefore regarded as the proper replacement for the book-value aggregate (BCD 71) used in the old lagging index. Taking ratios of manufacturing and trade inventories to the corresponding sales figures is a different way in which to express inventories in real terms. The series of simple inventory-to-sales ratios (BCD 851) has much longer lags than deflated inventories but scores about as well on timing; however, BCD 851 is definitely inferior to 71 d with regard to smoothness and conformity. Since inventories and sales should be somewhat differently deflated to take account of lags in the pricing process, we have also experimentally constructed and examined a series of ratios of inventories in constant dollars to sales in constant dollars, but the results were not significantly different from those obtained with the simple ratios. Prices, Costs, and Profits Unit labor cost is one of the central variables in a major hypothesis about the causes of business cycles; it has received much attention in research, which established its historical tendency to lag at business cycle turns and related that tendency to the cyclical behavior of wage rates and productivity of labor.23 The monthly series included in the old index (BCD Money and Credit We retain unchanged from the old index the aggregate of commercial and industrial loans outstanding (weekly reporting large commercial banks—BCD 72). This series represents the most cyclical component of total bank loans, reflects in large measure the financing of business inventories (itself a lagging indicator), and is available frequently and promptly. It flattened rather than declined with a lag in response to the 196061 recession; at other times, it lagged consistently at troughs and also, with one exception (in 1948), at peaks. Its record as 21 For detailed historical evidence, see Zarnowitz, Orders, Production, and Investment. New York: NBER, 1973, pt. III. 22 T h e record ot manufacturers' unfilled orders indicates that inventories on order, i.e./stocks of goods ordered for further processing or resale but not yet received, have earlier timing, leading at peaks and lagging or, less often, coinciding at troughs. This would be expected, since the on-order part of inventories can be adjusted more promptly to desired target levels than the on-hand part. The new composite index of leading indicators includes a series on net change in inventories on hand and on order, in deflated and smoothed form. See Zarnowitx and Boschan, op. cit.f p. ix. 23 Wesley C. Mitchell, Business Cycles, Berkeley: University of California Press, 1913 (part 3, reprinted in 1959 as Business Cycles and Their Causes). For a recent application and appraisal of Mitchell's theory, see Geoffrey H. Moore, "Productivity, Costs, and Prices: New Light From an Old Hypothesis," Explorations in Economic Research, vol. 2, No. 1, winter 1975. It is of interest to add that the analysis of cyclical aspects of unit labor costs has been largely disregarded in the more recent writings on inflation, although the treatment of the role of wages and productivity changes in that literature is extensive. (See Martin Bronfenbrenner and F. D. Holzman, "Survey of Inflation Theory," American Economic Review, September 1963.) 24 It may be noted, however, that they show smaller and shorter declines in the early 1960's and also more continuous rises in 1971-72. In 1975, BCD 68 was the first one to turn down (in the second quarter). 25 A general formula for nominal unit labor costs is NULC = Wh/y, where W = average hourly money compensation of employees, h = total number of hours worked, and y = real output produced. Deflation with the wage rate (division by W) produces one type of real unit labor costs, RULC. = h/y, which is the reciprocal of output per man-hour. Deflation with the price level P produces another type, RULC = Wh/Py, which is a labor share series (as approximated by the quarterly estimates of compensation as percent of national income, BCD 280A, or as percent of GNP). RULC has a strong downward trend, RULC- is relatively stable in the long run; both lag by very long and variable intervals. XIV (lines 11 and 12). In addition to these assessments of the individual series, the evaluation of the 1948-70 record of the composite indexes themselves (lines 13 and 14) also supports the decisions made in the process of deriving the new lagging index. The cyclical movements of the component lagging indicators can be examined in chart 3 which identifies their turning dates. Chart 4 does the same for the new and old lagging indexes. It shows that the new index lagged at all business cycle turns covered, while BCD 830 had one deviation from the lagging pattern (coincidence at the 1948 peak). Also, the timing observations at both peaks and troughs are less dispersed for the new than for the old index. a lagging indicator is good, and it is not bettered by attempts to deflate the loans.2 6 The other important series in the credit group—consumer installment debt (BCD 66)-can be viewed as a cumulation of the net credit changes which equal the differences between credit extensions and repayments. Consumer credit extensions tend to have roughly coincident timing, while repayments show lagging responses (often only retardations) to business recessions.27 Total installment credit outstanding had a strong upward trend, particularly in the early post-World War II years including the 1948-49 recession, and reacted to the later business contractions sluggishly with very mild declines (in 1970 merely with a slowdown). However, much better results are obtained with the ratio of consumer installment debt to personal income (series X251), which shows definite declines with lagged timing in connection with each of the business recessions since 1953. 28 Using this ratio represents the most satisfactory method we could find of allowing for the trend (reflecting, among other factors, inflation) and bringing out the cyclical element in consumer credit. The inclusion of the ratio of consumer installment debt to personal income in the composite index of lagging indicators significantly improves both the coverage and performance of the index. The quarterly series of bank rates on short-term business loans (BCD 67), a component of the old index of laggers, is now replaced by the monthly series of the average prime rate charged by banks (BCD 109). The two indicators behave very similarly, but BCD 109 has the maximum score for currency and BCD 67, being quarterly, rates poorly on this criterion. In the past (before 1966 and notably in the early 1960's), the average prime rate remained unchanged for long periods of time, which accounts for some of its lags that were especially long at troughs; but the bank rates were also approximately constant in the same periods. Since the late 1940's, interest rates generally have become much more sensitive to cyclical influences, as evidenced by large increases in the amplitudes of their cyclical movements and a gradual reduction in their lags at peaks and troughs in business activity 2 9 Interest rates may also be growing increasingly sensitive to price-level changes, reflecting the intensification and greater variability of inflation. It is therefore possible that the tendency of certain interest rates to lag at business cycle turns will significantly diminish in the future. 30 THE SYSTEM OF LEADING, COINCIDING AND LAGGING INDICATORS The previous discussion of the revised index of leading indicators31 and the present discussion of coinciding and lagging indicators permit us now to examine the revised system as a whole. Let us briefly review the rationale for the selection of the indicators. The timing characteristics of the leading indicators and their forecasting function are easily understood. These indicators represent anticipations and early links in the sequences of business decisions, early stages of the investment and production processes, and measures of flows contributing to changes in the levels of economic stocks. The tendency of these series and their composites to lead makes them obvious warning signals and tools for the forecasting of changes in general business conditions. Their main shortcomings for this purpose are their hypersensitivity and the considerable variation in length of their leads, particularly before business cycle peaks. Also, to the extent that the warning signs are heeded by policymakers, the forecasting effectiveness becomes impaired as countercyclical policies are implemented. The roughly coincident indicators are broad comprehensive measures which tend to summarize the state of actual business activity from the input and the output side. They not only confirm or invalidate expectations based on the behavior of the leading indicators, but also give some precision to the timing of the broad swings in economic activity. It is the behavior of the coinciders which should firm up policy decisions that the leaders could only suggest. The first function of the lagging (Lg) indicators is to confirm or refute the inferences derived from the behavior of the coincident (C) indicators. Perhaps more important for forecasting purposes, however, is the characteristic lead of the laggers relative to the opposite turns of the leaders (L). Many lagging indicators, such as the interest rates charged by banks, unit labor costs, inventories carried in manufacturing and trade, and business loans outstanding, measure or reflect the cost of doing business; it is mainly for this reason that these series, when inverted, lead most of the other important indicators (not only the coinciders but often also the leaders). For example, declines in inventories and interest rates during a business contraction pave the way for an upturn in new orders and then in the output of materials, etc., by making business operations less expensive and, hence, potentially more profitable, and also by depleting stocks relative to the current production and sales requirements. Chart 5 and table 3 show the sequences of turning points of the three new composite indexes and the intervals between them. It is clear that, on the whole, the system worked well: no single turning point occurred out of sequence, i.e., the laggers never turned before the coinciders, nor the coinciders before the leaders, nor the leaders before the laggers of the previous episode. The cycle-to-cycle dispersion of the time intervals between the successive turns in the leading-coincident-lagging sequence was relatively moderate, except for the intervals from COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LAGGING INDICATORS Table 2 shows that the components of the new lagging index have, on the average, higher scores than the components of the old lagging index (BCD 830) with respect to statistical adequacy, timing, smoothness, and currency, and hence overall 26 Moreover, it is not clear how to deflate this series in a meaningful way, i.e., what prices to use, with what timing, etc. Nor is there a monthly business income series to which the loans could be related (as we relate consumer debt to personal income). "^feee Paul W. McCracken, James C. T. Mao, and Cedric Fricke, Consumer Installment Credit and Public Policy, Michigan Business Studies, vol. XVII, No. 1, 1965, and Philip A. Klein, The Cyclical Timing of Consumer Credit, 1920-67, Occasional Paper 113, New York: NBER, 1971. 28 t h e ratio series, like BCD 66, failed to decline in 1948-49. The rapid increase in consumer debt during the late 1940's and early 1950's was probably due mainly to the huge backlog of unsatisfied demand for automobiles and other durable consumer goods that originated in the wartime shortages. 29 The lags have decreased much more for long-term than for short-term interest rates, and for the latter primarily at peaks rather than at troughs. See Phillip Cagan, Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Interest Rates, Occasional Paper 100, New York: NBER, 1966. 30 However, bank loan rates usually turn later than the active open-market rates (such as the Treasury bill and bond rates) which tend to have roughly coincident timing at peaks and lag at troughs. These sequences, in which the rates of negotiated markets turn last, would be expected to persist. See Cagan, op. cit. 31 XV Zarnowitz and Boschan, op. cit. CHART 4. COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LAGGING INDICATORS (NOV.) (OCT.) P (JULY)(MAY) P T T (AUG.UAPK.) P T 1 1 1 111 111 111 IN Ml 111 (A PK.) (FEB.) P T II 1 1 1 1\\ 11 (DEC.) (NOV.) P 1 1111 1 1 i1n 1 1 1 II III T [TTT l l l ndex: 1967=1001 III III III 220 200 180 160 +2 140 New index of 6 lagging indicators (series XI, 71D, 62,72, X251,109) v^ 120 +7 100 240 o +3 220 200 o +5 180 180 140 120 Old index of 6 lagging indicators (series 4 4 , 6 1 , 6 2 , 6 7 , 7 1 , 7 2 ) 100 80 +1 +1 / v/ +3 60 SKJ 40 +5 1! III Ml 111 II II in III III II III III II \\\ M 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates. XVI CHART 5. NEW COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LEADING, COINCIDENT, AND LAGGING INDICATORS (NOV.) (OCT.) P T (JULY)(MAY) P T (AUG.) (APR.) P T (DEC.) (NOV.) (APR.)(FEB.) P T P T 130 120 110 100 * 3 90 1 80 •» 70 180 160 140 120 ^ 2 3 CO 100 220 200 180 160 140 120 as 100 3 80 £ 40 130 120 110 "* Ratio, coincident index to lagging index 100 1 90 80 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads ( - ) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates. • T h i s is not necessarily the peak but is the high tor the available data. XVII 1975 TABLE 3. SEQUENCES OF TURNING POINTS IN THE COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LEADING (L), ROUGHLY COINCIDENT (C), AND LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS, 1948-75 Dates of associated turning points i n indexes L, C, and Lg Line 1 Dates of business c y c l e turns (peak-trough-peak) 11/48-10/49-7/53 7/53-5/54-8/57 8/57-4/58-4/60 4/60-2/61-12/69 12/69-11/70-11/73 2 ll/732-3/752 3 4 5 6 Peak of L Peak of C Peak of Lg Trough of L Trough of C Trough of Lg Peak of L (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) 1 l/48 3/53 9/55 4/59 1/69 6/73 2/49 9/53 12/57 7/60 2/70 12/74 10/48 7/53 3/57 4/60 10/69 11/73 10/49 5/54 4/58 2/61 11/70 3 3/75 6/49 11/53 2/58 12/60 10/70 3 2/75 3/53 9/55 4/59 1/69 6/73 3/50 10/54 8/58 7/61 6/71 3 6/75 Time i n t e r v a l s between the successive turning points ( i n months) 7 8 9 10 11 12 11/48-10/49-7/53 7/53-5/54-8/57 8/57-4/58-4/60 4/60-2/61-12/69 12/69-11/70-11/73 2 ll/732-3/752 13 14 15 Mean Median Standard d e v i a t i o n Lg (peaks) t o L(troughs) C t o Lg (peaks) L to C (peaks) 9 4 18 12 9 5 9.5 9 4.6 4 2 9 3 4 13 5.8 4 3.9 L to C (troughs) C t o Lg (troughs) 4 2 2 5 8 2 4 6 2 2 1 1 5 5 4 5 7 3 3.8 3 2.2 2.7 2 1.8 4.8 5 1.2 Lg (troughs) t o L(peaks) 5 6 36 11 8 90 24 33.8 24 29.8 Duration of sequence 4 62(56) 30(49) 43(32) 117(116) 53(47) 61(60) 53(49) 30.0(29.1) lf This is not necessarily the peak but is the high for the available data (which began in 1948). 0fficial business cycle peak and trough dates for the current cycle have not yet been designated. The tentative dates of November 1973 (peak) and March 1975 (trough) used in this table are based on the turning points in the composite index of coincident indicators. 3 Tentative, subject to revisions in recent data. 4 The first figure represents the sum of the corresponding entries in columns 1-6. The second figure (in parentheses) represents the duration of the corresponding business cycle measured from peak to peak. disregards the extra decline in the leading index from August 1950 through November 1951. disregards the extra decline in the leading index from March 1966 through January 1967. 2 the troughs of the lagging index (Lg) to the peaks of the leading index (L), whose great variability in length reflect the variability in length of business expansions (table 3, col. 6). Thus, it is apparent that the lagging index functions well as a confirmer of the coinciders at both peaks and troughs, but its value as a forecaster of the opposite turn of the leaders is essentially confined to its peaks. A measure likely to produce more stable and predictively useful relationships than the inverted lagging index is the ratio of the index of roughly coincident indicators to the index of lagging indicators (C/Lg), suggested by Geoffrey Moore.32 The turning points in the C/Lg ratio will lead those of the coincident index if the movement of the latter decelerates before its turning point while the lagging index continues to move at a faster rate. In addition, there are some economic reasons for expecting the C/Lg ratio to have early cyclical timing. For example, a downturn in the ratio of sales (C) to inventories (Lg) should have an adverse effect on, and may anticipate the downturn in, new orders (L). Similarly, a slowdown in the rise of output (C) combined with a continuing strong rise in unit labor cost and other costs (such as those associated with growing inventories and business indebtedness, which all lag) will depress profits and new investment commitments (L). The advantage of the derived C/Lg index as a forecasting tool is twofold. First, it provides an additional comprehensive leading series, based on series which are entirely different from those included in the composite index of leaders. Second, if its turning points do indeed precede those in the composite leading index, the ratio has considerable supplementary forecasting value. Chart 5 shows that the cyclical turns in the C/Lg ratio preceded the turns in general business activity on all but one occasion. The leads of the C/Lg ratio at business cycle peaks were long, varying from 12 to 35 months; the leads at troughs were much shorter, varying from 0 to 5 months. Thus, the C/Lg index can be useful as an independent leading indicator. However, the C/Lg ratio does not give reliable early signals anticipating the movements of the leading index (L): in 1948-70, C/Lg led the leading index at only four turns and lagged at two. Also, the scores of the C/Lg ratio are significantly lower than those of the leading index, although they are on the whole about as high as the average scores of the individual components of leading index. 33 In summary, it should be pointed out again that, for the period 1948-70, the turning points of the revised indexes are very similar in timing to those of the old indexes. The decisive advantage of the revised indexes is that they do not lose their indicator characterisitcs during periods of pronounced inflation and that their behavior is somewhat improved by the exclusion of indicators with mixed timing, i.e., indicators which have different timing characteristics at peaks and at troughs of business cycles. We hope and expect that continuous research as well as careful and perceptive monitoring of the indicator system will lead to further improvements in the behavioral characteristics and the forecasting usefulness of that system. 32 See his "Generating Leading Indicators From Lagging Indicators," Western Economic Journal, vol. V I I , No. 2, June 1969, pp. 135-144. XVIII 33 The scores being compared are tabulated below. The scores for economic significance, statistical adequacy, and currency are based in each case on the mean scores of the individual series used in the computation of the particular index (C/Lg or L). Economic significance 88 81 C/Lg L Average, 12 leading series . 81 Statistical adequacy 71 73 Timing 79 84 Conformity 29 78 73 82 58 Smooth- Currency Total ness 73 100 76 82 100 76 70 76 74 APPENDIXES A. Titles, Sources, and Descriptions of Component Series Retail sales include total receipts from customers after deductions of refunds and allowances for merchandise returned by customers. Receipts from repairs and from other services to customers, sales for resale, and sales taxes and excise taxes are also included. Data for all sectors are adjusted for trading days, length of calendar month, and seasonal variation. The deflation of manufacturing and trade sales is performed by the National Income and Wealth Division of BEA. The individual 3- and 4-digit components of manufacturers' shipments are deflated separately using appropriate wholesale price indexes combined with 1972 product class shipment weights. Wholesale sales are deflated by kind of business using appropriate wholesale price indexes combined with 1967 Census sales weights. Retail sales by kind of business are deflated separately using a combination of wholesale price indexes, consumer price indexes, and prices paid by farmers. The selection of price data and the weights for the component price indexes are based on sales by product line from the 1967 Census. 4 1 . Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, Establishment Survev—Department of Labor. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data for this series are collected from a sample of establishments in all nonagricultural activities, including government. The data relate to the payroll period which includes the 12th of the month and include full-time, part-time, temporary, and permanent workers. Also included are workers who are on paid leave (sick, holiday, vacation, etc.) and persons who worked only a part of the specified pay period. Persons on the payroll of more than one establishment are counted each time they are reported. Excluded from the statistics are persons in a nonpay status for the entire period due to layoff, strike, leave without pay, etc.; proprietors; self-employed and unpaid family workers; domestic household workers; and noncivilian government workers. An establishment is defined as an economic unit which produces goods or services—such as a factory, mine, or store. It is generally at a single physical location and is engaged predominantly in one type of economic activity. Where a single physical location encompasses two or more distinct and separate activities, these activities are treated as separate establishments provided that separate payroll records are available. The data are seasonally adjusted. X234. Personal 47. Index of Industrial Production—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This series measures changes in the physical volume or quantity of output of manufacturers, mineral industries, and electric and gas utilities. It reflects output changes at all stages within manufacturing and mining industries (including intermediate and final products). The production of farms, the construction industry, transportation, and various trade and service industries are excluded. The index includes production at government-owned and -operated plants and shipyards and atomic energy manufacturing activity. The data are seasonally adjusted. 56D. Manufacturing and Trade Sales, 1967 Dollars- Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census. This series measures the monthly volume, in 1967 dollars, of sales of manufacturing, merchant wholesalers', and retail trade establishments. It differs from final sales in that no allowance is made for the fact that the same items are sold successively by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. Manufacturers'sales (shipments) include receipts, billings, or the value (less discounts, returns, and allowances) of products shipped; shipments for export, for domestic use, and to foreign subsidiaries of domestic firms; and shipments from one establishment to another in the same company. Shipments of foreign subsidiaries are excluded. Sales of merchant wholesalers include: (1) Sales of merchandise and receipts from repairs or other services to customers after deducting returns, allowances, and discounts; (2) sales of merchandise for others on a commission basis; and (3) local and State sales taxes and Federal excise taxes. These data are collected from the same sample of merchant wholesale establishments and in the same survey as are data on merchant wholesalers' inventories. (See description for manufacturing and trade inventories, series 71 d.) Income Less Transfer Payments, 1967 Dollars—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. This series measures personal income (in 1967 dollars) received by individuals, unincorporated businesses, and nonprofit institutions, excluding transfer payments. Personal income represents the sum of labor income, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest, and transfer payments, minus contributions to social insurance. Capital gains and losses are excluded. Most of the income is in monetary form, but there are important exceptions—chiefly the net rental value of owner-occupied homes, the value of food produced and consumed on farms, and the value of financial services received by individuals and nonprofit institutions without explicit payment. Transfer payments consist of income received by persons, generally in monetary form, for which no services are rendered currently. It includes government transfer payments and business transfer payments. Government transfer payments consist of payments under social security (including Medicare), State unemployment insurance, railroad retirement and unemployment insurance, government retirement programs, veterans' benefits (including veterans' life insurance proceeds), direct relief, food stamps, payments to nonprofit institutions other than for work done under research and development contracts, and a few other minor items. Business transfer payments comprise corporate gifts to nonprofit institutions, consumer bad debts, and a few other minor payments. This series is computed from seasonally adjusted components and is deflated by the National Income and Wealth Division of BEA using the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The deflator is available monthly (unpublished) from 1968 to date. Prior to 1968, the monthly values are obtained by interpolating the quarterly implicit PCE deflator by the movements in the consumer price index. X1. Average (Mean) Duration of Unemployment in Weeks- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. This series measures the average length of time, in weeks during which persons classified as unemployed had been continuously looking for work or, in the case of persons on layoff, XIX since the termination of the most recent employment. A period of 2 or more weeks during which a person was employed or ceased looking for work is considered to break the continuity of the present period of seeking work. Average duration of unemployment is an arithmetic mean computed from a distribution by single weeks of unemployment. The data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 72. Commercial and Industrial Loans Outstanding, Weekly Reporting Large Commercial Banks—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This series measures the average weekly (Wednesdays) dollar amount of business loans outstanding each month. Included are data on all loans for commercial and industrial purposes except those secured by real estate. Loans to financial institutions and loans for the purpose of purchasing or carrying securities are excluded. The data are based on reports to the Federal Reserve System by approximately 330 banks. Included in the reports are data on the amount of commercial and industrial loans outstanding as of Wednesday of each week and the amount of loans sold outright during each week to their own subsidiaries, foreign branches, holding companies, other affiliates, and to other institutions except banks. For BCD, a weekly series is derived by summing the amount of commercial and industrial loans and the amount of loans sold outright as reported to the Federal Reserve System. The monthly series is the arithmetic mean of weekly data. The data beginning with November 1968 are seasonally adjusted by means of the Census X-11 seasonal adjustment program. Prior to that date, the National Bureau of Economic Research seasonally adjusted the data. 62. Index of Labor Cost Per Unit of Output, Total Manufacturing (Ratio of index of compensation of employees in manufacturing to index of industrial production, manufacturing)—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This series measures the relationship between the volume of production of manufactured goods and the cost of the labor involved in that production. The compensation of employees, manufacturing, component (labor cost) measures the income received by persons in an employee status as remuneration for their work, including (1) wage and salary disbursements—the compensation of employees commonly regarded as wages and salaries, including compensation of executives, commissions, payment in kind, bonuses, and tips; and (2) supplements to wages and salaries — or fringe benefits, including supplements such as employers' contributions to social insurance; private pension, health, and welfare funds; compensation for injuries; military reserve pay; etc. Industrial production index, manufacturing, is a measure of the changes in physical output of manufacturing in the United States. It includes 11 major groups of durable goods and 10 major groups of nondurable goods. It also includes measures of the manufacturing activity of the Department of Defense (durable goods) and the Atomic Energy Commission (nondurable goods). In computing labor cost per unit of output, seasonally adjusted data on compensation of employees (wage and salary disbursements plus supplements to wages and salaries) are converted to an index (1967=100) and divided by the index of manufacturing production (1967=100) to yield the index of labor cost per unit of output. This index is seasonally adjusted by the X-11 version of the Census seasonal adjustment program. 109. Average Prime Rate Charged by Banks—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This series indicates the interest rate that banks charge their most credit-worthy business customers on short-term loans. The prime rate is the base from which rates charged on loans to other business customers are scaled upward. The prime rate is not a sensitive rate that fluctuates daily in response to short-term changes in supply and demand as measured by a national market. Rather, its movements tend to be infrequent and to lag appreciably behind changes in the general business situation and in open market money rates. The data for this series are monthly averages computed by multiplying each prime rate in effect during a month by the number of days it was in effect, summing these products, and dividing by the total number of days. If two prime rates are reported for a single day, the rate indicating initial movement is disregarded due to the usually small number of banks participating. Data are not seasonally adjusted. 71D. Manufacturing and Trade Inventories, 1967 DollarsDepartment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census. This series measures the end-of-month value, in 1967 dollars, of stocks on hand in manufacturing, retail, and merchant wholesalers' establishments. For the manufacturing sector, inventories are reported as valued by the manufacturers. All manufacturing-associated inventories, regardless of stage of fabrication, are included. The inventories of retailers and merchant wholesalers are valued at cost. Goods held on a consignment basis by wholesalers are excluded. For the period since January 1958, each of the components of manufacturing and trade inventories is deflated separately. Manufacturers' inventories are deflated at the 2-digit SIC level, and wholesalers' inventories of durable and nondurable goods are deflated separately, as are durable and nondurable goods inventories of retailers. The deflators are based on combinations of wholesale price indexes with appropriate lag structures developed from information on stock/sales ratios and on inventory accounting practices. The deflation is done by the National Income and Wealth Division of BEA. (Prior to 1958, deflation was performed at the aggregate level using a lagged 4-month moving average of the wholesale price index for industrial commodities.) The components are seasonally adjusted prior to the application of their individual deflators. X251. Ratio, Consumer Installment Debt to Personal Income—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. This series measures the dollar volume of consumer installment credit outstanding at the end of each month per dollar (and/or dollar value) of monthly personal income. Consumer installment credit measures all short- and intermediate-term credit used to finance the purchase of commodities and services for personal consumption or to refinance debts originally incurred for such purposes. Included is all consumer credit (including revolving credit and budget and coupon accounts) held by financial institutions and retail outlets that is scheduled to be repaid in two or more installments. Credit extended to governmental agencies and nonprofit or charitable organizations, as well as credit extended to businesses or individuals exclusively for business purposes, is excluded. The term "credit" refers to an advance of purchasing power that could be used to obtain goods and services, or an advance of goods and services in exchange for a promise to pay later. Consumption refers to the process of using up goods and services as an end in itself rather than as a stage in production. Basic data for this component are compiled by the Federal Reserve System and seasonally adjusted by the Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. xx Personal income measures the income received by individuals, unincorporated businesses, and nonprofit institutions (including pension, health, welfare, and trust funds). This income represents the sum of labor income, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest, and transfer payments, minus personal contributions to social insurance. Capital gains and losses are excluded. Most personal income is in monetary form; however, there are important XXI exceptions—chiefly the net rental value of owner-occupied homes, the value of food produced and consumed on farms, and the value of financial services received by individuals and nonprofit institutions without explicit payment. The components of personal income are seasonally adjusted separately (except where seasonal patterns do not exist or are not well defined) and when aggregated yield a seasonally adjusted total. B. Data for New Series and Indexes Monthly Quarterly Year Annual Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. 56D. 1945 1946 1947 . . 1948... 1949... 1950... 1951. . . 1952... 1953. . . 195U. . . 43,5 91 44,318 44,328 52,133 49,799 55,875 53,205 43,611 44,275 45,249 50,766 50,347 56,650 53,832 43,937 44,140 45,849 49,869 50,043 57,258 53,540 1955... 1956... 1957. . . 1958. . . 1959. . . 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 57,456 60,917 62,340 58,177 62,026 66,092 62,495 68,426 70,743 75,630 57,939 60,437 62,573 57,326 63,038 65,899 62,645 68,383 71,822 75,679 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971. . . 1972... 1973. . . 1974... 1975. . . 80,913 87,389 89,093 92,807 96,565 96,003 95,802 103,022 113,828 115,120 101,286 May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1 Q SALES, L967 DOLLARS (MILLION DOLLARS) III Q II Q IV Q MANUFACTURING AND TRADE TOTAL FOR PERIOD 49,006 50,677 57,249 53,D77 43,57H 43,309 47,515 49,435 51,248 56,996 53,068 44,131 44,447 49,464 49,072 51,35 9 56,324 53,766 44,515 43,159 53,159 48,101 50,263 57,089 53,581 44,608 44,081 53,913 49,313 51,297 55,936 53,254 44,579 44,944 50,586 49,283 53,040 55,458 5 3,531 44,626 43,301 49,524 49,629 54,767 55,200 53,734 44,439 43,871 47,993 49,503 5 4,562 53,853 55,336 44,789 43,490 50,693 49,005 55,563 52,937 56,633 131,139 132,733 135,426 152,768 150,189 169,783 160,577 131,842 131,725 143,367 147,513 153,284 170,569 160,811 133,702 132,184 157,658 146,697 154,600 168,483 160,366 133,854 130,662 148,210 148,137 164,892 161,990 165,70 3 530,537 527,304 584,661 595,115 622,965 670,825 647,457 5 9,089 60,694 62,132 56,535 63,761 65,364 63,713 69,341 71,846 75,350 59,720 60,836 61,181 56,327 64,715 65,723 63,305 69,486 72,501 7 6,640 59,973 60,662 60,963 56,528 65,410 64,788 64,258 69,442 72,143 77,575 59,965 60,932 61,333 57,470 65,502 64,737 65,362 69,123 72,851 77,330 60,189 58,324 61,085 58,126 65,323 64,518 64,696 69,474 73,957 78,392 59,952 60,221 61,497 59,092 63,361 64,140 66,146 69,956 73,137 77,986 60,936 60,7 69 60,685 59,469 63,130 64,759 66,473 69,870 60,694 61,264 60,394 60,331 63,263 64,477 67,29 5 70,532 74,607 77,685 61,183 61,568 59,597 61,281 63,096 63,675 67,948 71,460 73,681 78,641 61,259 62,15 6 58,285 59,943 64,801 63,610 68,171 70,307 75,120 81,114 174,484 182,048 187,045 172,038 188,825 197,355 188,853 206,150 214,411 226,659 179,658 182,430 183,477 170,325 195,627 195,248 192,925 208,051 217,495 231,545 181,077 179,314 183,267 176,687 191,814 193,417 197,315 209,300 220,718 235,645 183,136 184,988 178,276 181,55 5 191,160 191,762 203,414 212,299 223,408 237,440 71S,355 72,1,780 732,065 700,605 767,426 777,782 782,507 835,800 876,032 931,289 81,223 82,695 87,582 88,916 88,588 88,982 93,146 93,684 97,168 96,999 96,383 95,501 97,105 97,886 102,622 104,262 114,801 115,040 114,863 115,054 102,174 99,870 82,831 8 8 , 3 60 89,150 93,526 97,431 94,Rf)3 98,269 104,729 114,052 114,528 101,38 2 82,221 87,952 89,193 9 4 , 3 68 97,060 95,624 99,249 105,613 114,412 114,370 101,917 82,550 89,074 89,640 94,896 96,997 95,852 99,810 105,225 113,253 113,228 102,805 84,083 88,155 89,297 96,275 97,017 96,205 99,022 105,403 115,622 113,542 103,877 84,227 88,704 90,297 93,904 97,631 96,045 100,395 107,690 113,469 113,097 105,079 83,339 89,322 90,534 95,997 85,081 89,557 89,373 96,970 98,973 93,978 100,178 109,798 115,632 109,379 8 6,25 6 8 9,110 91,242 96,925 97,283 92,549 101,953 110,825 116,827 105,651 86,453 89,044 92,771 96,054 96,717 95,082 101,473 111,633 114,166 101,699 244,831 263,887 266,663 279,637 290,732 287,887 290,793 309,906 343,669 345,037 303,330 247,602 265,386 267,983 282,790 291,488 286,079 297,328 315,567 341,717 342,126 306,104 251,649 266,181 270,128 286,176 292,911 287,916 299,895 320,907 342,602 337,557 313,995 257,790 267,711 273,386 289,949 292,973 281,609 303,604 332,256 346,625 316,729 1,001,872 1,063,165 1,078,160 1,138,552 1,168,104 1,143,491 1,191,620 1,278,636 1,374,613 1,341,449 <234. 44,132 43,969 46,383 73, H24 79,267 98,263 95,666 100,478 107,814 113,511 110,918 105,039 PERSONAL INCOME LESS TRANSFER PAYMENTS, 1967 DOLLARS (ANN. RATE, BILLION DOLLARS) 1946 1947... 1948. . . 1949... 1950. . . 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 235.6 234.0 23 9.5 245.1 267.5 276.6 295.2 295.3 234.6 234.9 239.2 242.9 266.0 281.6 296.6 294.9 228.6 240.4 239.9 246.7 268.7 283.0 299.5 293.4 226.7 2 38.8 2 38.8 249.5 273.1 281.2 299.8 292.1 7.28.0 239.2 239.2 25 2.9 273.2 28 4.4 301.3 293.3 231.5 244.0 23C.9 254.1 275.9 285.7 301.5 293.5 229.7 242.6 236.0 257.7 275.4 233.4 301.0 293.7 229.1 244. f> 237.4 262.2 278.6 290.1 299.0 296.5 1955. . . 195 6 1957*.'.! 1958... 1959. . . 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 304.3 32 7 0 335!9 331.5 345.0 361.3 360.6 381.2 397.6 414.5 30 5.2 328 0 337!2 331.6 347.7 360.7 361.0 383.2 399.0 419.8 30 7.9 311.0 314.1 315.9 337!B 330.8 35 0 . 1 360.3 362.2 385.7 400.1 421.7 337.fi 3 2 8.5 35 2.6 362.6 364.3 38 8.5 400.9 423.0 337.3 329.4 354.8 364.0 366.0 389.6 402.5 425.5 338.9 331.6 355.7 364.0 369.3 390.4 403.6 427.3 319.5 32 7 9 339i5 337.7 354.9 364.4 370.5 392.0 405.6 430.1 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 442.6 477.3 497.4 515.9 544.2 5 60.3 567.0 591.9 632.2 636.1 602.7 445.2 479.1 496.7 521.2 546.7 560.5 568.0 596.2 637.1 631.8 598.7 447.2 481.0 497.6 5 23.4 549.2 563.1 570.0 597.6 639.7 628.2 596.6 449.5 481.3 500.2 523.8 550.0 566.0 5 7 0.8 601.2 6^9.3 453.8 4P.3.4 500.5 456.1 486.7 504.1 530.4 5 5 4.0 564.5 569.8 603.6 640.0 621.7 603.3 458.7 430.0 505.9 533.6 555.6 565.8 570.5 608.2 643.5 623.9 604.4 625.6 597.1 NEW COMPOSITE 527.3 5 5 2.6 5 65 .?« 570.6 604.9 639.8 624.2 602.0 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 229.2 245.1 240.0 263.1 276.6 293.7 298.0 29 8.5 231.4 246.7 2 3 6.4 2 64.8 278.7 293.7 299.5 29 9.6 232.4 246.0 238.4 267.0 278.9 292.4 299.6 302.2 2 31.5 243.4 240.6 269.7 2 79.2 293.5 297.7 303.7 232.9 236.4 239.5 244.9 267.4 280.4 297.1 294.5 228.7 240.7 238O3 252.2 274.1 283.8 300.9 293.0 229.3 244.1 237.8 2 61.0 276.9 289.1 299.3 296.2 231.8 245.4 238.5 267.2 278.9 293.2 298.9 301.8 230*!7 7.41.6 2 3 8 .5 256.3 274.3 2 8 6.fi 299.1 296.4 319.8 3 32 3 321.2 336.9 351.4 363.5 372.0 392.5 406.7 433.9 339.*0 338.9 350.4 363.2 372.2 392. G 409.9 43 6.4 323.7 337 2 338!3 339.6 350.9 362.7 375.8 392.1 411.9 436.5 325.7 337 0 34o!o 344.0 35 4.6 361.0 380.1 395.3 411.9 438.5 327.4 33 7 7 334.*4 345.1 360.0 357.7 382.1 397.9 413.2 442.9 305.8 3 2 7.6 33 6.'9 331.3 347.6 360.8 361.3 383.4 398.9 418.7 313.7 331.0 337]9 329.8 354.4 363.5 366.5 389.5 402.3 425.3 320.2 331 „ 5 339.°5 337.8 352.2 363.7 371.6 392.4 407.4 433.5 325.6 337.3 33 6 is 342.9 355.2 360.5 379.3 39 5 . 1 412.3 439.3 316.3 3^1.9 337.*7 335.5 352.3 3 62.1 369.7 390.1 405.2 429.2 462.7 490.4 507.7 536.6 558.1 568.1 5 7 4.2 613.1 644.2 622.6 610.7 4 65.0 490.2 5 0 8.6 539.1 559.8 5 68.5 576.6 614.7 649.5 620.2 615.6 4 71.0 492.4 508.8 539.9 561.6 5 61.8 577.6 621.4 649.1 617.1 620.1 473.7 494.9 513.1 541.5 5 61.7 55 9.6 581.6 624.6 649.3 609.7 476O3 4 95.9 516.6 5 43.5 562.1 5 61.0 586.0 628.9 645.2 60 6.6 445.0 479.1 497.2 520.2 546.7 561.3 568.3 595.2 636.3 632.0 599.3 453.1 483.8 501.6 527.2 552.2 5 65.4 570.4 603.2 639.7 623.6 600.8 462.1 490.2 507.4 536.4 557.8 5 67.5 573.8 612,0 645.7 622.2 610.2 473.7 494.4 512.8 541.fi 561.8 560.8 5 81.7 625 .0 647.9 611.1 45 8.5 48 6.9 504.8 5 31.4 554.fi 563.8 573.6 60S. 9 642.4 622.3 OF 4 COINCIDENT INDICATORS (1967=100) INDE> AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 1945... 1947 1948... 1949... 1950. . . 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 30.1 30.3 30.0 35.3 36.1 39.6 38.2 30.1 30.2 29.9 35.3 36.5 39.9 38.3 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958. . . 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 40.0 45.1 47.0 43.7 46.8 51.7 49.1 54.7 58.6 64.3 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968. . . 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 74.1 87.9 97.7 105.4 117.8 122.3 121.0 134.8 163.4 173.7 152.5 35.5 36.fi 40.2 38.0 30.2 29.7 31.3 35.fi 36.5 40.3 37.9 30.4 29.5 31.9 35.6 36.6 40.4 37.8 30.9 29.4 32.6 35.7 36.4 40.3 37.9 31.0 29.1 33.7 35.4 36.0 40.4 37.9 31.0 29.4 34.6 35.6 37.3 40.1 37.9 31.0 29.7 34.3 35.5 38.3 39.7 38.2 31.1 28.7 34.4 35.7 38.7 39.6 38.4 31.0 29.2 34.3 35.9 39.0 39.1 39.0 30.8 29.6 35.0 35.9 39.4 38.6 39.5 30.2 30.1 30.2 35.4 36.4 39.9 38.2 30.5 29.5 31.9 35.6 36.5 40.3 37.9 31.0 29,4 34.2 35.5 37.2 40.1 38.0 31.0 29.2 34.fi 35.8 39.0 39.1 39.0 30*! 7 29.fi 32.7 35.6 37.3 39.8 38.7. 40.3 45.1 47.4 42.7 47.6 51.6 49.0 55.4 59.2 65.5 41.1 45.2 47.4 42.0 48.4 51.3 49.5 5 6.0 59.6 65.7 41.7 45.7 47.0 41.4 49.4 51.7 49.9 5 6.6 60.3 66.8 42.4 45.6 46.9 41.5 50.1 51.4 50.6 56.8 60.7 67.7 42.7 45.6 47.1 42.2 50.3 51.2 51.4 56.8 61.1 68.1 43.1 43.9 47.2 43.1 50.0 51.0 51.7 57.2 61.7 69.1 43.2 45.6 47.3 43.6 48.6 50.8 52.4 57.5 61.8 69.9 43.7 46.2 46.8 44.2 48.4 50.7 52.5 57.7 62.6 71.0 44.2 46.7 46.3 44.6 48.3 50.5 53.4 57.9 63.4 70.1 44.6 46.7 45.4 45.9 48.9 49.9 54.4 58.5 63.2 71.9 44.9 47.2 44.4 45.8 50.8 49.1 54.9 58.4 63.8 73.8 40.5 45.1 47.3 42.8 47.6 51.5 49.2 55.4 59.1 65.2 42.3 45.6 47.0 41.7 49.9 51.4 50.6 56.7 60.7 67.5 43.3 45.2 47.1 43.6 49.0 50.8 5 2.2 57.5 62.0 70.0 4 4 . F, 46.9 45.4 45.4 49.3 49.8 54.2 58.3 63.5 71.9 42.7 45.7 4 6.7 43.4 49.0 50.9 51.fi 57.0 61.3 68.7 75.1 89.0 96.9 107.3 119.5 122.9 121.8 136.5 166.5 172.6 149.7 76.5 90.7 97.2 108.1 120.5 123.0 122.7 139.4 168.0 172.2 147.0 77.2 91.2 98.0 10 8.5 121.0 122.7 123.8 141.8 168.2 171.8 147.6 78.2 92.1 98.2 110.2 121.6 122.6 125.1 144.0 169.6 172.5 148.8 79.3 93.7 99.2 111.5 122.6 122.4 125.3 144.5 170.3 171.6 149.5 80 .7 94.4 99.5 112.8 123.5 122.8 124.7 146.0 173.0 172.4 151.5 81.8 94.9 101.2 112.8 124.3 122.7 125.3 149.5 172.7 171.9 15 4.6 82.3 95.6 101.3 114.4 125.2 121.9 127.6 151.2 174.4 171.0 156.9 84.1 96.6 101.1 115.2 126.0 117.5 127.5 155.2 176.4 16 9.0 158.8 85.4 96.8 103.8 11.6.5 124.4 115.6 129.9 157.5 178.2 162.8 86.7 97.2 105.7 116.8 124.2 119.0 131.6 159.9 175.6 156.4 75.2 89.2 97.3 106.9 119.3 122.7 121.8 136.9 166.0 172.8 149.7 78.2 92.3 98.5 110.1 121.7 122.6 124.7 143.4 159.4 172.0 148.6 81.6 95.0 100.7 113.3 124.3 12 2.5 125.9 148.9 173.4 171.8 154.3 85.4 96.9 103.5 116.2 124.9 1.1.7.4 129.7 157.5 176.7 162.7 80.1 93.3 100.0 111.6 122.6 121.3 125.5 146.7 171.4 169.8 30.4 29.9 30.7 XXII B. Data for New Series and Indexes—Continued Quarterly Monthly Annual Year Jan. Feb. Mar. XI. 1945... 1946... 1947... 191*8. . . 19U9... 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... May Apr. June July Sept. Aug. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1 Q AVERAGE DURATION DF UNEMPLOYMENT (WEEKS) IIIQ II Q IVQ AVERAGE FOR PERIOD — 8.7 8.4 7.6 12.0 12.2 9.5 9.7 IF.2 8.9 11.5 11.9 9.7 9.8 9.7 8.8 11.5 11.9 9.9 9.9 15.7 11.1 10.2 8.7 8.2 7.9 7.9 10.5 12.1 11.0 8.0 10.4 12.4 10.5 8 .3 10.6 12.3 10.6 9.5 9.6 9.5 10.7 11.7 11.4 8.3 10.9 12.4 10.0 9.8 12.9 8.6 11.3 12.3 10.1 9.6 13.4 15.4 8.E 10.8 12.5 9.2 7.5 7.9 10.1 15.4 MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES, (BILLION DOLLARS) 7ID. 12.1 10.3 8.7 11.6 12.5 11.4 10.8 8.8 8.7 7.9 9.3 9.4 8.1 11.9 10.1 8.4 8.2 8.0 11.9 9.8 8.9 8.3 7.9 8.9 8.5 7.9 12.2 11.9 11.3 10.9 10.4 16.4 13.1 13.9 17.0 13.3 13.3 14.0 9.7 8.3 8.4 7.8 12.0 11.1 9.2 8.7 7.9 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 13.2 11.5 11.6 11.1 16.5 12.9 13.5 15.9 14.1 13.9 12.6 11.6 12.6 11.2 14.2 12.5 10.7 11.0 15.5 13.1 13.6 16.0 14.1 13.2 13.3 9.7 8.3 7.9 7.7 13.4 10.1 10.2 14.4 14.9 11.9 16.2 15.1 14.0 13.6 13.4 11.7 10.4 10.5 16.3 13.5 13.7 15.3 13.8 13.5 9.3 8.8 8.0 11.6 14.4 10.4 10.4 13.1 14.7 11.9 15.6 15.5 14.5 13.6 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 9.7 9.5 7.9 11.7 11.8 9.8 If.5 13.7 12.9 16.1 14.1 14.2 12.7 14.3 11.0 10.6 12.1 14.9 12.6 15.5 14. 9 14.5 12.4 8.4 8.5 8.9 9.1 7.2 12.3 12.0 10.5 15.7 13.7 12.2 17.0 14.5 13.9 13.0 12.3 13.4 11.6 10.8 11.2 15.3 13.0 14.1 15.0 14.5 13.5 8.8 8.4 9.5 8.1 11.8 10.7 13.8 10.5 10.1 14.6 14.3 12.6 17.3 14.6 14.0 14.7 10.6 9.3 9.3 8.7 7.8 11.6 10.7 12.5 8.8 10.0 13.1 8.7 7.3 8.2 8.7 8.3 12.4 10.1 9.5 8.5 11.7 12.2 9.1 8.1 7.1 12.9 9.1 9.1 12.7 9.9 7.8 7.9 11.6 8.4 8.3 11.8 10.8 10.9 12.3 8.8 11.0 12.2 9.1 7.6 8.0 12.B 8.5 8.8 12.6 10.6 9.0 7.8 10.9 8.9 8.2 11.3 10.6 8.8 9.3 12.8 11.2 12.3 8.6 10.0 12.0 9.7 8.4 8.0 9.7 8.0 8.0 9.1 7.7 7.7 13.4 11.6 12.7 13.3 11.8 12.0 11.4 10.4 15.7 13.1 12.4 15.8 13.6 13.3 12.7 13.7 11.9 10.6 10.9 15.7 13.2 13.8 15.4 14.1 13.4 14.0 10.5 10.4 13.2 14.8 12.1 15.8 15.2 14.3 13.2 12.6 11.4 10.1 15.6 13.9 12.6 16.8 14.4 14.0 13.5 11.6 11.3 10.6 16.2 13.0 13.3 16.2 13.7 13.5 13.1 13.0 11.3 10.4 14.0 14.4 12.8 15.6 14.7 14.0 13.3 11.7 11.4 11.4 10.2 11.7 9.5 8.6 8.2 8.0 12.3 11.4 11.8 9.7 8.9 8.1 8.0 8.6 8.3 7.8 9.9 8.5 8.3 7.9 9.8 8.7 8.2 7.9 11.8 10.3 9.1 8.9 8.0 12.5 11.6 10.1 12.0 11.5 10.0 11.4 11.2 8.1 10.5 12.3 10.7 11.' 3 12.4 ll'.l 12.0 12!o ll!u 9.8 9.8 9.5 9.9 9.7 9.7 9.9 11.4 9.8 9.9 12.0 10.0 9.8 11.3 13.9 15.8 69.#44 63.91 75.0 6 85.39 89.24 H2.5 6 8 8.95 92.92 98.14 98.48 9 R. 5 8 9.3 10.0 15.4 8.8 8.4 7.9 r .ND OF PERIOD 66.29 70.54 69.07 76.67 86.07 91.28 92.11 66.69 70.79 68.91 77.28 86.01 91.48 91.8 2 67.10 70.81 69.41 78.17 86.09 91.89 91.4 6 67.34 70.50 69.71 7 9.33 8 6.10 92.73 91.0 2 67.57 70.47 70.47 S0.74 85.89 93.02 90.66 68.41 70.50 71.05 81.84 86.44 93.41 90.19 69.37 70.62 70.15 82.63 86.42 94.10 89.77 69.48 70 .64 71.76 83.56 86.40 94.05 39.24 1955... 1956... 1957. . . 1958... 1959. . . 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963.. . 1964. . . 89.23 93.44 98.34 97.11 96.80 102.18 104.12 106.19 111.47 116.28 89.29 94.35 98.18 96.67 97.13 103.37 103.93 106.85 111.93 116.54 89.90 94.52 98.15 96.39 97.49 104.00 103.41 107.47 112.33 117.00 89.80 95.43 98.3 9 95.94 98.6 2 104.07 103.53 107.60 112.44 117.49 90.35 95.96 98.38 95.5 2 99.00 10 4.57 103.75 108.42 112.76 118.00 91.18 96.39 98.51 95.34 99.79 104.90 103.62 108.98 113.28 118.54 91.68 96.85 98.71 95.21 100.35 105.27 103.82 109.38 113.62 118.64 92.22 97.18 99.23 94.96 m o . 31 105.04 104.31 10 9.8 9 114.15 119.07 9 7 . C>7 99.58 95.56 99.83 105.36 104.G9 110.44 114.78 120.20 1965... 1966... 1967. . . 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 122.52 130.04 144.72 150.71 157.73 162.74 166.82 170.72 177.59 186.96 193.26 122.94 131.32 145.49 151.0 5 158.99 163.55 167.22 170.98 178.19 187.93 191.53 12 4.2 2 13 2.30 146.04 151.0 6 159.97 163.52 167.84 171.29 17 8.55 188.07 190.12 124.79 133.11 146.68 15 2.0 4 160.00 164.25 168.23 171.85 178.56 188.06 189.61 125.23 134.47 14 7.04 153.05 160.37 164.03 168.8 2 172.46 179.21 188.83 187.60 125.90 136.02 146.95 153.57 160.50 164.51 168.76 172.58 180.15 189.91 185.87 126.91 137.17 147.55 154.08 161.17 165.28 169.15 172.75 181.06 190.37 185.32 127.74 138.23 148.39 155.05 161.62 165.92 169.53 174.02 181.24 189.84 185.73 128.04 139.27 148.50 15 5.62 162.16 166.13 169.6 4 174.71 181.56 190.25 185.15 69.55 70.90 72.58 83.91 87.46 94.10 89.18 92.10 RATIO, CONSUMER INSTALLMENT DEBT TO PERSONAL (PERCENT) 69.65 70.46 73.40 84.51 88.34 93.48 88.77 69.65 69.78 74.64 85.02 88.86 92.85 89.09 69.44 68.91 75.06 85.39 89.24 92.56 8 8.95 67.10 70.81 69.41 78.17 86.09 91.8 9 91.46 68.41 70.50 71.05 81.84 86.44 93.41 90.19 83.91 87.46 94.10 89.18 69.44 68.91 75.06 85.39 89.24 92.56 88.95 92.56 97.74 98.66 95.77 100.00 105.22 104.81 110.94 115.45 120.03 92.66 98.19 98.43 95.97 100.00 105.35 10 5.51 111.02 115.69 120.92 92.92 98.14 98.48 96.58 101.31 10 4.4 6 10 5.57 111.21 115.91 121.70 8 9.90 94.52 98.15 96.39 97.49 104.00 103.41 107.47 112.33 117.00 91.18 96.39 98.51 95.34 99.79 104.90 103.62 108.98 113.28 118.54 92.10 97.67 99.58 95.56 99.83 105.36 104.69 110.44 114.78 120.20 92.92 98.14 98.48 96.58 101.31 10 4.4 6 10 5.5 7 111.21 115.91 121.70 101.31 104.46 105.57 111.21 115.91 121.70 128.41 140.73 148.55 15 6.51 162.77 165.8 3 169.74 175.19 182.45 191.71 128.96 142.08 14 9.5 6 156.69 162.68 166.32 169.62 175.81 183.63 191.73 129.49 143.40 15 0.4 6 157.10 163.12 166.41 170.40 176.67 185.92 192.78 124.22 132.30 146.04 151.0 6 159.97 163.52 167.84 171.29 178.55 188.07 190.12 125.90 136.02 146.95 153.57 160.50 164.61 168.76 172.58 180.15 189.91 185.87 128.04 139.27 148.50 155.62 162.16 166.13 169.64 174.71 181.56 190.25 185.15 129.49 143.40 150.46 157.10 163.12 166.41 170.40 176.67 185.92 192.78 129.49 143.40 150.46 157.10 163.12 166.41 170.40 176.67 185.92 19 2.78 1.32 1.99 3.06 3.93 5.23 6.11 5.60 6.42 7.65 7.72 1.35 2.08 3.18 4.02 5.33 6.05 5.65 6.5 9 7.78 7.71 1.41 2.14 3.23 4.15 5.44 5.92 5.68 6.74 7.82 7.77 1.21 1.50 2.37 3.46 4.31 5.37 5.91 5.80 7.02 7.85 1.20 1.66 2.72 3.72 4.64 5.80 5.72 5.98 7.40 7.86 1.26 1.84 2.92 3.80 4.95 6.05 5.62 6.25 7.5 8 7.78 1.36 2.07 3.16 4.03 5.33 6.03 5.64 6.58 7.80 7.73 1.26 1.77 2.79 3.77 4.81 5.80 5.72 6.14 7.43 7.81 8.30 9.07 9.23 9.25 8.77 9.07 9.40 8.88 9.8 2 10.44 10.00 10.50 11.33 11.96 8 .40 9.05 9.26 9.13 9.40 10.21 10.17 10.27 11.03 11.74 12.37 12.30 11.95 11.93 12.19 12.07 12.14 12.46 13.07 12.94 12.28 12.39 12.07 11.89 12.16 12.07 12.00 12.32 12.91 13.07 69.55 70.90 72.58 INCOME AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 1945... 1946... 1947... 1948... 1949... 1950... 1951... 1952. . . 1953... 1954... 1.22 1.45 2.27 3.36 4.25 5.34 5.94 5.76 6.91 7.85 1.20 1.51 2.37 3.46 4.32 5.38 5.91 5.74 7.02 7.86 1.21 1.53 2.47 3.56 4.37 5.39 5.87 5.75 7.14 7.85 1.21 1.60 2.R2 3.69 4.51 5.62 5.78 5.85 7.29 7.91 1.20 1.66 2.74 3.75 4.64 5.75 5.73 5.96 7.36 7.84 1.20 1.71 2.81 3.73 4.76 5.88 5.65 6.14 7.40 7.83 1.21 1.75 2.91 3.80 4.88 5.98 5.60 6.30 7.52 7.83 5.61 6.20 7.59 7.78 1.31 1.94 2.85 3.92 5.00 6.14 5.64 6.24 7.63 7.73 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958. . . 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 7.88 8.90 9.15 9.44 8.97 9.82 10.44 10.05 10.56 11.42 7.98 8.96 9.14 9.41 9.0 2 9.95 10.40 10.04 10.72 11.50 8.10 9.03 9.17 9.32 9.07 10.05 10.31 10.04 10.79 11.58 8.19 9.04 9.21 9.31 9.11 10.09 10.27 10.09 10.90 ll.fil 8.28 9.09 9.24 9.25 9.17 10.12 10.21 10.17 10.94 11.69 8.42 9.09 9.23 9.18 9.26 10.20 10.14 10.25 10.9 9 11.7 6 8.43 9.16 9.26 9.01 9.38 10.25 10.05 10.30 11.09 11.80 8.58 9.10 9.26 9.01 9.61 10.30 10.10 10.37 11.16 11.81 8.68 9.07 9.33 8.95 9.75 10.36 10.09 10.37 11.21 11.88 8.73 9.03 9.37 8.94 9.86 10.37 10.0 2 10.45 11.28 11.98 8.76 9.10 9.39 8.84 9.84 10.43 9.98 10.50 11.35 11.95 8.81 9.09 9.43 8.87 9.75 10.53 9.99 10.56 11.36 11.94 7.99 8.96 9.15 9.39 9.02 9.94 10.38 10.04 10.69 11.50 9.18 10.14 10.21 10.17 10.94 11.69 8.56 9.11 9.28 8.99 9.5 8 10.30 10.08 10.35 11.15 11.83 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 12.01 12.41 12.25 11.91 12.03 12.21 11.93 12.13 12.61 13.14 12.81 12.13 12.38 12.22 11.89 12.09 12.20 11.93 12.07 12.66 13.12 12.80 12.17 12.40 12.19 11.84 12.07 12.14 11.92 12.15 12.73 13.13 12.74 12.28 12.42 12.15 11.8 9 12.13 11.89 11.97 12.18 12.78 13.14 12.C.4 12.32 12.46 12.13 11.88 12.19 12.00 11.97 12.24 12.88 13.14 12.51 12.34 12.43 12.0 8 11.87 12.22 12.07 11.76 12.38 12.93 13.14 12.25 12.39 12.44 12.02 11.87 12.20 12.08 11.99 12.38 13.01 13.07 12.37 12.44 12.41 12.00 11.87 12.19 12.05 11.99 12.43 13.05 13.11 12.24 12.20 12.37 12.00 11.85 12.19 12.0 2 12.08 12.49 13.02 13.05 12.18 12.38 12.32 12.00 11.90 12.20 12.11 12.13 12.42 13.05 13.01 12.37 12.29 11.95 11.93 12.21 12.07 12.16 12.46 13.10 12.98 12.35 12.30 11.91 11.97 12.16 12.03 12.13 12.51 13.05 12.84 12.10 12.40 12.22 1.1.8 8 12.06 12.18 11.93 12.12 12.67 13.13 12.78 12.31 12.44 12.12 11.88 12.18 11.99 11.90 12.27 12.86 13.14 12.47 12.34 12.41 12.01 11.86 12.19 12.00 12.0 2 12.43 13.03 13.08 12.26 8.5 11.4 11.2 9.3 9.1 7.7 8.8 8.7 9.6 1967 DOLLARS 1945 1946. . . 1947 1948... 1949... 1950... 1951... 1952... 1953. . . 1954... X251. 8.6 8.7 8.3 11.8 10.5 — 1.25 1.83 2.99 3.83 4.96 6.04 XXIII B. Data for New Series and Indexes—Continued Monthly Quarterly Year Feb. Jan. May Apr. Mar. June July Sept. Aug. Oct. Nov. Annual Dec. 1 Q OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS (1967 = 100) II Q IVQ III Q NEW COMPOSITE INDEX 1945 1946 1947 1948... 1949... 1950... 1951... 1952. . . 1953. . . 1954... 24 2 26.6 25 9 29 9 ^4 2 36 8 38 5 24. 26! 7 25. 8 30. 4 34. 3 37. 1 38. 3 24.5 2 6.6 25.8 30.9 34.5 37.4 37.8 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958. . . 1959... 1960... 1961. . . 1962. . . 1963. . . 1964... 36 40 46 47 44 50 53 52 58 63 2 8 0 6 1 7 4 8 8 36. 41. 45. 46. 44. 51. 53. 52. 58. 64. ^ 0 8 8 4 8 3 9 4 6 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969. . . 1970... 1971. . . 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 71 83 98 102 116 134 124 124 140 177 198 9 6 8 8 6 0 7 4 8 7 9 73. 2 85. 4 98. 8 103. 9 117. 7 134. 1 124. 3 123. 4 144. 4. 177. 6 192. 4 1 AVERAGE FOR 25.1 26.2 26.3 32.4 35.4 38.4 3 6.8 25.6 26.1 26.5 32.5 35.4 38.7 36.7 26. 25 26. 32. 35. 38. 36. 0 9 9 8 3 7 2 26.2 25.8 27.6 32.9 35.6 39.0 36.0 26.0 26.1 2 8.3 33.2 35.7 38.9 35.9 26.4 25.8 29.0 33.4 35.9 38.8 36.1 26.4 25.8 29.2 33.8 36.4 38.8 36.1 24.4 26.6 25.8 30.4 34.3 37.1 38.2 24.9 26.4 26.1 31.3 34.4 38.0 37.G 24.9 2 6.5 26.2 31.8 35.0 38.3 37.2 36.6 41.8 46.0 46.5 44.8 52.6 52.8 53.5 58.6 64.9 36.5 42. f. 4 6.5 45.9 45.2 53.0 52.2 54.0 58.7 65.7 36.8 43.4 46.7 44.5 46.1 53.8 5 2.0 54.5 59.1 65.9 37.4 43.9 46.9 43.7 47.1 54.3 51.6 55.2 59.8 6 6.5 37.7 44.8 47.2 43.3 47.9 54.3 51.1 55.7 60.5 66.4 38. 7 44 3 47. 9 43. 0 49. 0 54. 1 51. 5 5 6. 2 60. 9 67. 8 39.1 44.8 48.4 43.4 50.0 53.6 51.7 56.7 61.3 69.2 39.6 45.0 47 .9 43.5 50.7 53.4 51.7 57.3 62.2 69.7 40.2 45.5 48.2 43.5 50.6 53.7 51.7 5 7.9 63.5 69.3 40.2 45.5 48.4 44.0 50.5 53.8 52.0 58.0 64.1 70.8 74.5 86.9 99.7 104.3 119.5 132.9 12 3.3 124.5 147.5 178.7 190.3 75.9 88.5 98.8 10 5.6 122.0 130.4 122.0 125.8 151.3 184.0 185.5 77.1 90.0 99.4 10 7.9 123.5 130.8 12 2.3 127.2 15 4.2 189.4 181.7 77.5 91.7 99.8 10 8.6 127.4 131.fi 120.5 128.0 15 8.1 19 2.3 174.9 78.1 93.0 100.1 10S.7 128.8 132.5 123.5 129.1 162.4 195.5 175.6 79.3 94.9 100.6 110.5 129.9 132.8 125.8 132.1 169.3 198.3 174.0 80.5 95.5 100.3 110.2 131.7 132.0 125.3 134.0 170.3 19 9.5 176.2 81.5 97.3 101.2 111.8 131.9 129.7 125.0 135.7 171.7 198.9 83.0 97.9 102.9 114.6 132.3 127.6 125.8 137.6 175.8 199.5 RATIO, 24.8 26.5 25.9 NEW COINCIDENT 79. 94. 99. 109. 129. 133. 125. 130. 166. 196. 174. 2 7 6 6 3 0 4 7 1 7 8 31.8 34.9 38.2 37.2 25. 25. 27. 32. 35. 38. 36. 9 9 0 7 4 8 3 26.3 25.9 2,°,. 8 33.5 36.0 38.8 36.4 41.2 45.9 47.0 44.4 51.7 53.2 53.1 58.4 64.4 36.9 43.3 46.7 44.7 46.1 53.7 51.9 5 4.6 5 9.2 66.0 38. 44. 47. 43. 49. 54. 51. 56. 60. 67. 5 6 8 2 0 0 4 2 9 8 4n. n 45.3 48.2 43.7 50.6 53 .G 73.2 85.3 99.1 103.7 117.9 133.7 124.1 124.1 144.2 178.0 193.9 76.8 90.1 99.3 107.4 124.3 130.9 121.6 127.0 15 4.5 188.6 180.7 124 113 115 118 105 107 99 111.4 103.4 94.2 104.0 97.5 92.9 104.7 100.9 100.3 102.9 112.4 104.9 99.0 97.4 103.2 95. 6 99.0 102.9 101.5 10 2.4 10 4. fi 100.0 10 2.0 103.5 9 4.6 90.5 10 3.4 116.0 10 2.4 81.7 10 3.2 102.0 It) 0.0 103.1 97.5 92 .0 101.2 113.3 107.9 89.3 119 113 126 104.5 105.5 101.8 114.2 103.9 100.4 9 6.6 10 6.8 94.3 99.6 102.9 102.2 10 2.4 114.3 98.0 100.0 99.5 104.4 93.9 101.2 102.7 102.0 104.1 111 .6 10 2 . 9 98 . 7 101 .4 99 2 93 . 9 101 .7 102 . 3 101 .5 103 . 1 111.8 103.1 96.7 101.8 9 6.8 94.6 101.5 101.8 102.1 102.6 111.6 103.8 96.7 102.5 95.3 94.6 103.3 101.0 101.9 100.6 110.9 102.6 94.2 10 5.5 9 6.6 92.9 10 5.2 101.0 99.5 103.8 111.7 103.7 91.7 104.1 100.6 91.3 105.6 100.7 99.5 104.2 111.3 109.5 102.9 91.1 107.1 99.7 92.5 104.3 101.3 101.1 114.5 105.4 100.6 93.4 108.3 95.8 97.5 104.0 102.5 102.3 112 101 98 100 100 94 101 102 101 103 102.3 102.2 99.4 102.7 96.2 9^ .0 104.0 112.9 10 7.7 89.2 85.5 103.3 101.5 99.5 103.8 95.9 92.7 101.0 113.1 106.5 88.2 86.2 103 . 3 100 . 2 101 .6 10 2 . 9 9 6. 1 9 2.3 99 . 9 114 .4 10 4 . 0 87 . 4 88 . 4 103.8 100.7 100.7 10 3.5 96.4 91.8 101.4 114.5 103.0 86.2 90.2 10 4.5 101.2 100.8 10 4.8 99.5 102.6 104.2 94.3 8 9.1 103.9 116.1 103.8 81.9 10 4.5 99.3 102.7 101.9 93.9 93.3 104.6 116.2 99.9 78.4 102.7 104.6 98.2 103.1 101.1 91.8 98.2 110.3 115.1 97.1 77.2 101.8 102.5 99.1 102.5 98.0 93.6 102.6 112.9 109.6 91.2 82.3 103 .5 10 0 . 8 10 0 . 6 103 .4 96 . 1 92 . 3 100 . 8 114 .0 104 .5 87 . 3 88 . 3 .6 .6 .2 112.2 124.0 110.2 102.8 104.9 103.0 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958. . . 1959. . . I960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 110 . 5 110 . 5 102 .2 91 .8 106 . 1 10 2 . 0 91 . 9 103 .6 100 . 9 100 .8 111 110 103 91 107 99 91 104 101 101 0 0 5 2 2 6 9 7 4 .4 112.3 108.1 103.0 90.3 10 8.0 97.5 93.8 10 4.7 101.7 101.2 114.2 10 7.3 101.1 90 .? 109.3 97.5 95. H 104.8 102.7 101.7 115.2 105.1 10 0.4 93.3 10 8.7 95.5 97.3 104.2 102.7 102.7 1965... 1366. . . 1967... 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972.. . 1973... 1974... 1975... 103 105 98 102 101 91 97 108 116 97 76 .1 102 104 98 103 101 91 98 110 115 97 6 .2 .1 .3 .5 .6 .0 .6 .3 .2 .8 10 2.5 104.4 97.5 103.6 10 0.8 92. n 99.5 112.0 113.9 9 6.4 77.2 101.7 103.1 99.2 102.7 91.2 94.1 101.5 112.7 111.2 93.4 79.G 101.4 10 2.3 98.8 10 2 . 1 98.5 H3.7 102 .3 113.2 110.0 91.1 81.9 ,fi 3 5 .9 1 1 .5 .3 .9 .3 123.8 113.1 116.9 116.4 106.0 10 7.5 9 9.9 122.1 111.3 121.8 111.9 104.6 10 5.5 101.6 77 105 0 103 3 104 7 116.7 114.7 119.9 106.2 108.2 99.5 109.4 122.3 111.9 122.2 111.9 101.7 104.4 103.3 117.4 113.2 118.3 10 7.5 108.6 100.8 108.0 121.8 112.1 120.8 113.7 106.1 106.1 IOC.8 .9 .5 .0 .3 .0 .4 .1 .7 .7 77.6 91. 6 100.0 108.2 125.9 131.8 12 4.0 129.4 159.3 190.7 120*9 112! 8 121.4 111.0 106.0 10 4.2 103.6 119.fi 110.0 121.6 10 7.5 108.4 101.8 107.0 123.6 112.4 119.0 114.9 106.1 107.5 100.5 .1 81.7 96.3 101.5 112.2 132.0 12 9.8 125.4 135.8 172.6 199.3 117.9 112.fi 119.9 10 7.1 10 8.4 100.7 108.1 118.3 115.1 124.3 107.9 10 7 . G 101.8 106.1 4 1 9 1 4 5 0 .1 51.8 57.7 63.3 69.9 37.9 4 3.6 47.2 44.6 47.5 5 3.3 5 2.1 55.4 60.4 67.0 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 119 2 113 .5 128 10 8 . 5 105 .7 103 .6 104 . 7 123 113 115 116 106 107 100 .4 .9 .8 78. 9 94. 2 100. 1 109. 6 129. 3 132. 8 124. 9 130. 6 165. 9 196. 8 174. 8 36.n 2 5 '.4 26.2 27.0 32.1 35.2 38.2 36.9 INDEX TO NEW LAGGING INDEX (1967 = 100) 1946... 1947... 1948... 1949... 1950. . . 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... PERIOD 123.1 121.1 111.5 127.2 108.9 XXIV 10 4 . 5 95.7 89.0 101.8 115.8 103.6 84.7 90.1 5 4 7 10 8 4 METHOD OF PRESENTATION THIS REPORT is organized into :,ix major subject sections, as followsA. B. C. D. E. F. National Income and Product Cyclical Indicators Anticipations and Intentions Other Key Indicators Analytical Measures Internationa! Comparisons Each of these sections is described briefly in this introduction Data for each of the above sections are shown both in Part I (charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 1953 (except in section C where they begin with 1957); the tables contain data for only the last few years. Except for section F, the charts contain shading which indicates periods of recession in genera! business activity. In addition to the r.fnrts and table: described above, each K : - ^ contains i ?urr: mary table which sh:-,vs the cur^nt behavior of many of V\o s^nc.--, and several appendixes which preson1 historical data, series descriptions. son^nal adjustment factors, and measure.; of ;arlability. An index appears at the back of -:a^h issue It should be noted that ttv? series number, used are for identification, purpose^ on!y and do not reflect relationships ;; order. Seasonal Adjustments Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive intrayear variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; however, a separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or trading days in each month. As used in this report, the term "seasonal adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made. Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these are the official figures released by the source agencies. However, for the special purposes of this report, a number of series not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a seasonally adjusted basis. MCD Moving Averages Month-to-month changes in a series are often dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the smallest span of months for which the average change in the cyclical factor is greater than that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of 1. The charts for sections B and D include centered MCD moving averages for all series with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations for the most recent months. Reference Turning Dates The historical business cycle turning dates used in this report are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general practice, neither new reference turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until after both the new reference peak and the new reference trough bounding the shaded area have been designated. This policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading of a current recession without including part of a new expansion. SECTION A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT The national income and product accounts, compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), summarize both receipts and final expenditures for the personal, business, foreign, and government sectors of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which equals the total of the receipts (mainly incomes), is known as gross national product (GNP). GNP is defined as the total market value of the final output of goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output. cial services received by them as income in kind. The total purchase cost is covered, including sales taxes. Home purchases are excluded, but the estimated rental value of owner-occupied homes is included. Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable equipment and private (as opposed to government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates are gross in the sense that there is no deduction for capital consumption. The inventory component measures the change in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost. Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports. Exports include receipts from domestic output sold abroad, transportation, travel, other services, fees and royalties and income on investments in foreign areas. Imports include purchases of foreign goods, payments for transportation, travel and other services, military expenditures as well as payments of income on foreign investments in the United States. More detail on U.S. balance of payments is provided in section D. Government purchases of goods and serv ices includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net purchases from business and from abroad, payments to private nonprofit institutions for research and development, and the gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays of government enterprises, acquisitions of land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans, and interest payments to domestic creditors. A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP, covering durable and nondurable goods and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section A. Other major aggregates taken from the national income and product accounts are described below. National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods and services and accruing to the labor and property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, corporate profits and the inventory valuation adjustment, and net interest. Gross national product consists of four major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services. Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust funds, and private health and welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income, and transfer payments to persons, less personal contributions for social insurance. Personal consumption expenditures is the market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the value of food, clothing, housing, and finan- Disposable personal income is the personal income available for spending or saving. It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments to general government. Gross saving represents the difference between income and spending during an accounting period. It is the total of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits, corporate inventory valuation adjustment, the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government surplus or deficit, and capital consumption allowances. Most of the series in this section are on a current-dollar basis, but some are shown on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that the effects of price changes are eliminated. The implicit price deflator (computed by dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also shown. &;&*'d SECTION B CYCLICAL INDICATORS The business cycle is generally described as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as total production, employment, income, consumption, trade, and the flow of funds. Although a recurrent pattern has been characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it inevitable. One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73 cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. The NBER employs a dual classification scheme which groups the indicators by cyclical timing and by economic process, and this report uses the same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system used in this section. The 79 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification and cyclical timing as the secondary basis. The major processes are divided into minor processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing classification takes into account a series' historical record of timing at business cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators are those which usually reach peaks or troughs before the corresponding turns in aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators usually reach their turning points after the turns in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has also specified a "short list" of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal indicators is drawn from the full list and provides a convenient summary of the current situation. The short list consists of 26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these are quarterly series; the rest are monthly. The short list is classified only by timing and is shown separately in chart B8. Included in this section are a number of composite indexes which provide simple summary measures of the average behavior of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according to its value in forecasting or identifying short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its weight, an equal opportunity to influence the index. Each index is standardized so that its average month-to-month percent change is 1 (without regard to sign). The composite indexes presented in this report are based on groups of indicators selected by timing. Thus, there is an index of leading indicators, another of coincident indicators, and a third of lagging indicators. In addition, there are five indexes based on leading indicators which have been grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical trends of each group of indicators and the relative magnitude of their short-term changes. The index of 12 leading indicators has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that its long-run trend parallels that of the coincident index. This facilitates comparisons among the leading, coincident, Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing • N. \^ Cyclical Timing Economic Process | EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (13 series) ||. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE (9 series) HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (14 series) |V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (14 series) VI. MONEY AND CREDIT (20 series) \ \. LEADING INDICATORS (40 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS (26 series) Formation of business enterprises <2 series) New investment commitments (8 series) Marginal employment adjustments (5 series) Job vacancies (1 series) Comprehensive employment (3 series) Comprehensive unemployment (3 series) Long-duration unemployment (1 series) LAGGING INDICATORS (13 series) Comprehensive production (3 series) Comprehensive income (2 series) Comprehensive consumption and trade (4 series) Inventory investment and purchasing (7 series) Backlog of investment commitments (2 series) Investment expenditures (2 series) Inventories (2 series) Sensitive commodity prices (1 series) Stock prices (1 series) Profits and profit margins (5 series) Cash flows (2 series) Flows of money and credit (7 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Comprehensive wholesale prices (2 series) Bank reserves (1 series) Interest rates (5 series) Unit labor costs (3 series) Outstanding debt (2 series) Interest rates (3 series) and lagging indexes and tends to shorten the leads of the leading index at business cycle peaks while lengthening them at troughs; it also reduces the variability of the leads and lags. SECTION C ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS Most businessmen and many individual consumers have some type of plans as to their major economic activities in the near future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication of the state of confidence concerning the economic outlook. In recent years, much progress has been made in compiling such information, and a number of surveys by various organizations and government agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The results of some of these surveys, expressed as time series, are presented in this section of the report. The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations. These data reflect only the respondents' anticipations (what they expect others to do) or intentions (what they plan to do), not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses may not be very reliable; that is, the plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many plans are subject to modification or even complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments. In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for example, the anticipations (or intentions) data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what has already occurred and hence appear to lag behind actual changes. Actual data are included in this section to indicate their historical relationship to the anticipations and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the description for section E. SECTION D OTHER KEY INDICATORS Many economic series are available which, although not included in the three main sections of the report, are nevertheless important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of such series, though by no means a com prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct measures of economic activity but which do have a significant bearing on business conditions. The foreign trade and payments series include data on imports and exports and their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts are shown. Some are charted in a manner which emphasizes the balance between receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports of goods and services, and income on U.S. investments abroad with payments on foreign investments in the United States. In addition, balances are shown for U.S. Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the private sector (banks and U.S. residents other than banks). Finally, cumulative changes are shown for other components; for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets. The Federal Government activities series include Federal receipts and expenditures, and their balance, and selected defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and product accounts. The defense series are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of defense activities, see Defense Indicators, a monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis publication. Three other groups of series are included in this section. The price movements series consist of consumer and wholesale price indexes and their major components. The series on wages and productivity include measures of hourly earnings and output per man-hour and also rates of change for most of these measures. The final group of series measures the civilian labor force and its major components, including unemployment rates for selected .segments of the labor force. SECTION E ANALYTICAL MEASURES This section begins by comparing gross national product in constant dollars with a measure of potential GNP. In effect, these two series reflect the relationship between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree to which potentially productive resources are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of Economic Advisers in the early 1960's, takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour. The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic varia- bles (for example, the series on labor cost per unit of output). There are, however, additional analytical ratios which have proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such ratios are shown in the second part of this section. The third part presents a selection of diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or 9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show recent developments. Most of the indexes are constructed from components of series shown in section B, and these indexes have the same identification numbers as the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical timing of the aggregates to which they relate. Recent data and directions of change for many of the components are shown in table E4. The final part (E5) presents, in chart form, rates of change for a selected group of economic series. Percent changes are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for 1-quarter spans. SECTION F Lit. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Because this report is designed as an aid to the analysis of U.S. business conditions, all previous sections are based on data which relate directly to that purpose. But many business analysts examine economic developments in other important countries with a view to their impact on the United States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which we have important trade relationships. Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price indexes measure an important sector of prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has been omitted from the charts. HOW TO READ CHARTS Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER. Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of Expansion as designated by NBER. Basic Data (May) [fmb.) Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. 20 - 1 / if^ " 1 6 - <? 14 — -| 12 -<y / Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or MCD moving averages.*) Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted. ("6" = June) Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter) Dotted line indicates anticipated Broken line indicates actual monthly data for series where an MCD moving average* is plotted. Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic scale, "scale L - l " is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. The scales should be carefully noted because they show whether the plotted lines for various series are directly comparable. Parallel lines indicate a break in continuity (data not available, changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.). Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data. 80-J Diffusion Indexes Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Broken line indicates monthly data over 1-month spans. Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. *Many of the more irregular series are shown in terms of their MCD moving averages as well as their actual monthly data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted 1% 2, or 2y2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD moving averages. ,Scale shows percent of components rising. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are used in computing the indexes. ("6" = June) Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. ( " I " = first quarter) Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. NOTE: Some of the charts of anticipations and intentions data (section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not conform to the above method of presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur. HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES 1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE in the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, or 2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES where series are listed in numerical order according to series numbers within each of the Digest's six sections. Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators Basic data1 Unit of measure Percent change Average 1972 1973 1974 2dQ 1974 3dQ 1974 4th Q 1974 1st Q 1975 2d Q 1975 3dQ 1975 4th Q to 1st Q 1975 1st Q to 2dQ 1975 2dQ to 3dQ 1975 A. N A T I O N A L INCOME A N D PRODUCT A 1 . Gross National Product 200. 205. 210. 215. 217. GNP in current dollars GNP in 1958 dollars Implicit price deflator Per capita GNP in current dollars Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars A2. National income, current dollars Personal income, current dollars Disposable personal income, current dollars .. Disposable personal income, 1958 dollars Per capita disposable personal income, current dollars 227. Per capita disposable pers. income, 1958 dol. . A3. -1.0 -3.0 2.0 -1.2 -3.1 1,7 0,5 1.3 1.5 0.3 4.4 3.2 1.1 4.1 2.9 200 205 210 215 217 Ann.rate, bil.dol. do 946.5 1065.6 1142.5 1130.2 1155.5 1165.4 1150.7 1175.4 1227.0 944.9 1055,0 1150.5 1134.6 1168.2 U86.9 1193.4 1220.5 1255.2 802.5 903,7 979.7 966.5 993.1 1008.8 1015.5 1078.5 1079.6 580.5 619.6 602.8 603.5 602.9 594.8 591.0 620.2 611.4 -1.3 0.5 0.7 -0.6 2.1 2.3 6.2 4.9 4.4 2.8 0.1 -1.4 220 222 224 225 do do Ann. rate, dol. . do 3,843 2/779 4/295 2/945 4/623 2/845 4/565 2/850 4/681 2/842 4/745 2/798 4/768 2/775 5/055 2/907 5/047 2/858 0.5 -0.8 6.0 4.8 -0.2 -1.7 226 227 Ann.rate, bil.dol. do .do. .do. .do. .do. .do. 729.0 527.3 118.4 78.8 39.7 299.7 310.9 805.2 552.1 130.3 86.9 43.4 338.0 336.9 876,7 539.5 127.5 90.0 37.5 380.2 369.0 869.1 542.7 129.5 91.5 38.0 375.8 363.8 901.3 547.2 136.1 92.5 43.6 389.0 376.2 895.8 528.2 120.7 88.1 32.6 391.7 383.5 913.2 531.5 124.9 89.6 35.3 398.8 389.5 938.6 539.7 130.6 93.5 37.1 410*1 397.9 968.8 548.6 138.6 96.3 42.3 422.7 407.5 1.9 0.6 3,5 1.7 8.3 1.8 1.6 2.8 1.5 4.6 4.4 5.1 2.8 2.2 3.2 1.6 6.1 3.0 14.0 3.1 2.4 230 231 232 233 234 236 237 Ann.rate, bil.dol. do .do. .do. .do. .do. 179.3 116.8 41.1 75.7 54.0 8.5 209,4 136,8 47,0 89.8 57.2 15.4 209,4 149.2 52.0 97.1 46.0 14.2 211.8 149.4 52.2 97.2 48.8 13.5 205.8 150.9 51.0 99.9 46.2 8.7 209.4 151.2 53.7 97.5 40.4 17.8 163.1 146.9 52.S 94.2 35.3 -19.2 148.1 142.7 49.1 93.6 36.4 -31.0 179.1 143.6 49.6 94.0 41.0 -5.5 -22.1 -2.8 -1.7 -3.4 -12.6 -37.0 -9.2 -2.9 -7.0 -0.6 3.1 -11.8 20.9 0.6 1.0 0.4 12.6 25.5 240 241 242 243 244 245 -6.0 72.4 78.4 3,9 100,4 96.4 2.1 140.2 138.1 -1.5 138.5 140.0 -3.1 143.6 146.7 1.9 147.5 145.7 8.8 142.2 133.4 16.2 136.0 119.8 12.2 142.0 129.8 6.9 -3.6 -8.4 7.4 -4.4 -10.2 -4.0 4.4 8.3 250 252 253 Ann.rate, bil.dol. do do do 255.7 104.9 74.8 150.8 276,4 106.6 74,4 169.8 309.2 116.9 78.7 192.3 304.4 114.3 76.6 190.1 312.3 117.2 78.4 195.1 323.8 124.5 84.0 199.3 331.6 126.5 84.7 205.1 338.1 128.4 84.8 209.7 343.5 130.5 86.1 213.0 2.4 1.6 0.8 2.9 2.0 1.5 0.1 2.2 1.6 1.6 1,5 1.6 260 262 264 266 Ann.rate, bil.dol. do do do 214.3 7.1 321.0 1.4 240,9 9,4 366,5 6.0 249.2 7.7 406.9 6.5 248.5 -1.8 402.9 15.4 259.8 5.7 413.2 3.0 246.2 18.3 418.6 -0.5 252.9 -13.4 433.2 -5.7 261.7 -14.7 449.8 -16.3 268.7 -9.2 461.3 3.7 2.7 -31.7 3.5 -5.2 3.5 -1.3 3.8 -10.6 2.7 5.5 2.6 20.0 270 271 274 275 Ann.rate, bil.dol. do do do 707.1 75.9 25.9 92.2 45.6 786,0 96,1 26,1 105.1 52.3 855.8 93.0 26.5 105.6 61.6 848.3 89.9 26.3 105.6 60.1 868.2 92.1 26.6 105.8 62.8 877.7 91.6 26.8 103.4 65.9 875.6 84.9 27.0 94.3 68.9 885.4 86.1 27.1 104.9 71.9 906.6 94.6 27.4 122.5 75.9 -0.2 -7.3 0.7 -8,8 4.6 1.1 1.4 0.4 11.2 4.4 2.4 9.9 1.1 16.8 5.6 280 282 264 286 288 Ann.rate, bil.dol. do 173.4 52.6 214.4 74.4 207.5 77,0 206.3 71.5 196.4 65.5 202.9 86.5 166.6 75.V 165.0 113.8 187.7 84.6 -17.9 -12.3 -1.0 49.9 13.8 -25.7 290 292 do 23.3 102.9 -5.1 25.7 110.8 3.5 17.3 119.5 -6.3 17.1 118.6 -1.0 9.9 120.7 0.2 18.1 122.9 .24.6 21.5 27.9 125.2 127.4 -56.0 -104.2 36.0 130.0 -62.9 18.8 1.9 -31.4 29.8 1.8 -48.2 29.0 2.0 41.3 294 296 298 828,4 10.8 94.4 32.9 44,2 812.5 8.7 94.0 24.0 33.6 818.9 8.2 96.5 25.7 32.6 818.1 5.0 94.1 23.6 38.9 793.1 10.9 89.2 20.4 33.6 791.8 -11.7 83.8 17.1 do 785.4 7.0 83.7 34.3 39.1 800.7 -17.1 80.3 17.5 33.7 810.6 -2.3 80.4 19.4 39.2 -0.2 -22.6 -6.1 -15.2 -20.5 1.1 -5.4 -4.2 1.2 26.2 1.2 14.8 0.1 10.9 16.3 273 246 247 248 249 do 61.0 57.3 56.5 56.3 56.5 57.0 57.4 58.3 58.9 0.7 1.6 1.0 263 do 82.1 87,0 89.5 89.5 89.4 89.3 90.2 90.9 91.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 267 Ann.rate, bil.dol. 26.3 12,4 64,6 54.1 66.8 94.7 127.6 132.9 117.2 32.9 5.3 -15.7 207 Personal Consumption Expenditures Total, current dollars Total, 1958 dollars Durable goods, current dollars Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars. Automobiles, current dollars Nondurable goods, current dollars Services, current dollars A4. 240. 241. 242. 243. 244. 245. 1158.0 1294,9 1397.4 1383.8 1416.3 1430.9 1416.6 1440.9 1503.6 792.5 839.2 821.2 627.1 823.1 804.0 780.0 783.6 808.3 146.1 154.3 170.2 167.3 172.1 178.0 181.6 183.9 186.0 5/544 6/154 6/592 6/537 6,677 6/731 6/652 6/753 7/030 3,794 3/988 3/874 3/907 3/880 3/782 3/663 3/673 3/779 National and Personal Income 220. 222. 224. 225. 226. 230. 231. 232. 233. 234. 236. 237. Ann.rate, bil.dol. do 1958=100 Ann. rate, dol. .. do Gross Private Domestic Investment Gross private domestic investment, total Fixed investment, total nonresidential Fixed investment, nonresidential structures . Fixed investment, producers' durable equip. . Fixed investment, residential structures Change in business inventories, total 2 A5. Foreign Trade 250. Net exports of goods and services2 252. Exports 253. Imports A6. 260. 262. 264. 266. Government Purchases of Goods and Services Total Federal National defense State and local A7. 270. 271. 274. 275. Ann.rate, bil.dol. . do do Final Sales and Inventories Final sales, durable goods Change in business inventories, dur. goods2 . Final sales, nondurable goods Change in bus. inventories, nondur. goods2 .. A8. National Income Components 280. 282. 284. 286. 288. Compensation of employees Proprietors' income Rental income of persons Corporate profits and inventory valuation adj. Net interest A9. Saving 290. Gross saving, total 292. Personal saving 294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment 296. Capital consumption allowances 298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2 A10. do do Real GNP (1958 dollars) 273. 246. 247. 248. 249. 263. Final sales. 1958dollars Change in bus. inventories, 1958 dollars2 Fixed investment, nonresidential, 1958 dollars . Fixed investment, residential struc, 1958 dol. . Gross auto product, 1958 dollars Federal Government purchases of goods and services, 1958 dollars 267. State and local government purchases of goods and services, 1958 dollars Ann.rate, bil.dol. do do do E1. Actual and Potential GNP 207. GNP gap (potential less actual), 1958 dol. 2 5 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data1 Series title Unit of measure Percent change Average 1973 1974 1st Q 1975 2d Q 1975 3dQ 1975 Aug. 1975 Sept. 1975 Oct. 1975 Aug. to Sept. 1975 Sept. to Oct. 1975 1st Q to 2dQ 1975 2dQ 3dQ 1975 B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS B7. Composite Indexes 12 leading indicators:3 New index, original trend New index, reverse trend adjusted Old index, reverse trend adj. (810) 1967=100 . . . . do . . do . 124.0 166.1 163.4 110.1 154.7 171,2 91.5 132.2 153.0 97.0 142.0 160.5 102.4 151.7 171.9 102.6 152.1 171.9 102.5 152.5 174.0 102.0 152.4 175.4 -0.1 0.3 1.2 -0.5 -0.1 0.8 6.0 7.4 4.9 5.6 6.8 7.1 4 coincident indicators, new index . 6 lagging indicators, new index. . . . .do . .do . 171.4 159.3 169.8 190.7 149.7 193.9 148.6 180.7 154.3 174.8 154.6 174.8 156.9 174.0 158.8 176.2 1.5 -0.5 1.2 1.3 -0.7 -6.8 3.8 -3.3 .do . .do . 102.0 120.3 123.2 118.6 118.1 92.8 114.9 133.1 125.0 110.6 82.3 104.0 112.1 116.4 89.4 84.5 109.3 112.3 119.9 96.4 88.9 114.0 115.4 124.9 101.7 89.3 114.2 116.6 124.5 98.8 88.6 114.1 117.1 125.5 105.1 NA 113.8 117.4 127.8 NA -0.8 -0.1 0.4 0.8 6.4 -0.3 0.3 1.8 40.7 40.0 39.0 39.1 39.6 39.7 39. 39.8 2.4 3.6 2.7 4.0 2.8 4.0 2.6 3.7 451 1.7 LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS 813. Marginal employment adjustments . . 814. Capital investment commitments . . . 815. Inventory investment and purchasing 816. Profitability 817. Sensitive financial flows .do . .do. .do. 810 NA 2.7 5.1 0.2 3.0 7,8 0.3 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.7 3.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 432 1.7 -2.0 -0.2 4.2 0.0 8.8 0,5 13.2 0.8 83 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.2 46 149,50 150.81 146.50 145.44 146.44 146.81 147.15 147.96 76,896 78/413 76,864 76,438 76,992 77/023 77/275 77/492 80/957 82/443 80/821 80,959 81,795 81/884 81/872 82/019 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 -0.7 -0.6 0.2 0.7 0.7 1.0 48 41 42 NA 5.2 4.3 2.6 4.2 5.5 813 814 815 816 817 B1. Employment and Unemployment LEADING INDICATORS Marginal Employment Adjustments: * 1 . Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. 21. Average weekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing2 2. Accession rate, manufacturing2 * 5 . Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (inverted4) 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted 4 ) 2 Hours .do . Per 100 employ. 3.8 4.8 3.2 4.2 2.4 3,3 Thousands Per 100 employ. 240 0.9 349 1.5 548 2.9 500 2.4 434 1.6 442 1.5 1967=100 126 110 76 76 83 83 21 2 ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS Job Vacancies: 46. Help-wanted advertising Comprehensive Employment: 48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments . • 4 1 . Employees on nonagricultural payrolls 42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities Comprehensive Unemployment: *43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 4 ) 2 . 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (inverted 4 ) 2 40. Unemployment rate, married males (inverted 4 ) 2 Ann. rate, billion man-hours Thousands do 4.9 5.6 8.4 8.9 8.4 8.4 8,3 8.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 0.5 43 2.7 3.5 6.0 6.8 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.5 0.1 0.2 -0.8 0.9 45 2.3 2.7 4.8 5.7 5.2 5.0 5.3 5.2 -0.3 0.1 -0.9 0.5 40 0.9 1.0 2.0 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.8 0.0 0.3 -0.8 -0.3 44 1967=100 1294.9 1397.4 1416.6 1440.9 1503.6 780.0 783.6 808.3 839.2 821. 125.6 124,8 111.6 110.4 114.1 114.0 116.5 1.8 0.4 1.7 0.5 -1.1 4.4 3.2 3.4 200 205 47 Comprehensive Income: *52. Personal income 53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., construction . Ann.rate, bil.dol. do 1055.0 1150.5 1193.4 1220.5 1255.2 1255.9 1270.V 1283.6 247.6 266,2 257.3 257.2 265.4 265.8 269.5 272.7 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.2 2.3 0.0 2.8 3.2 52 53 Comprehensive Consumption and Trade: *56. Manufacturing and trade sales 57. Final sales *54. Sales of retail stores 59. Sales of retail stores, deflated Bil.dol Ann.rate, bil.dol. Mil. dol do 143.84 1279.6 41/943 33/47' 171.58 172.35 173.28 NA 1509.1 49,684 49/925 49/473 49/955 32,223 32/350 32/000 32/253 0.5 -0.9 -1.1 1.0 0.8 1. 2.5 3.4 2.0 4.9 2.5 3.8 1.8 56 57 54 59 1967=100 Number 102.5 106.3 117.9 112. 27/443 26/584 24,54; 26,661 0.8 -1.3 3,7 8.6 6.4 12 13 7.2 -2.7 0.5 -2.3 1.9 10 11 24 .do. LAGGING INDICATORS Long Duration Unemployment: *44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inverted 4 ) 2 B2. Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICATORS Comprehensive Production: *200. GNP in current dollars *205. GNP in 1958 dollars *47. Industrial production Ann.rate, bil.dol. do 164.10 1383,2 53/786 56/191 161.40 1435.8 46,290 31/015 163.64 1471.9 47,855 31/643 116.0 B3. Fixed Capital Investment LEADING INDICATORS Formation of Business Enterprises: *12. Index of net business formation 13. New business incorporations New Investment Commitments: *6. New orders, durable goods industries 8. Construction contracts, total value *10. Contracts and orders for plant, equipment . 11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing . 24. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondefense . 9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings 28. New private housing units started, total . . . *29. New building permits, private housing Bil. dol 1967=100 Bil.dol do do Mil. sq. feet floor space . . . Ann. rate, thous 1967=100 113.1 112.6 NA 28/708 113.5 NA 112.0 NA NA NA NA 41.16 184 12.28 11.13 10.32 44.42 171 13.54 14.22 11.53 36.50 141 11.39 11.46 9.86 39.38 182 12.78 11.08 10.25 42.20 177 12.85 10.8 10.44 42,69 208 13.98 42.23 157 11.93 42.78 166 12.21 10.39 10.21 10.75 -1.7 5,3 7.9 29.1 12.2 -3.3 4.0 85.73 2/045 157.1 72.90 1/336 91. 46.87 995 59.4 50.74 1/068 77.5 48.66 1,257 90.0 43.25 1/269 85.7 50.1 1,26b 54.10 1/458 94.1 15.9 -0.1 10.2 7.9 15.0 -0.3 8.3 7.3 30.5 -4.1 17.7 16.1 9 28 29 -0.9 -1.1 -2.8 -2.9 -0.3 -4.0 96 97 94. -1.1 -24.5 -14.7 1.3 5.7 2.3 6 8 ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS Backlog of Investment Commitments: 96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries5 . . 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.5 . . . 6 Bil.dol., EOP . do . . . . 109.86 129.94 120.10 116.75 116.36 H7.41 116.36 115.08 37.11 49.79 49.08 47.64 45.74 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data1 Series title Unit of measure Percent change Average 1973 1st Q 1975 1974 2d Q 1975 3dQ 1975 Aug. 1975 Aug. to Sept. 1975 Oct. 1975 Sept. 1975 Sept. to Oct. 1975 1st Q to 2dQ 1975 2dQ to 3dQ 1975 B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con. B3. Fixed Capital Investment—Con. LAGGING INDICATORS Investment Expenditures: *61. Business expend., new plant and equip 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures 99.74 111.92 114.57 112.46 Ann.rate, bil.dol. 0,9 61 -1.8 -0.7 69 -1 1 8 25 5 24.3 245 31 -1 8 134.71 152.81 153.03 150.24 149.21 149.95 149.00 do NA -0.6 NA 5.6 NA -10.2 NA B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment LEADING INDICATORS Inventory Investment and Purchasing: 245. Change in bus. inventories, all indus.2 •31. Change, mfg. and trade inven., book value2 . 37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories2 20. Change in mfrs.' inventories of materials, supplies, book value2 26. Buying policy, production materials, commitments 60 days or l o n g e r 2 ® 32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries 2 ® 25. Chg. in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus.2 . . 15.4 26.7 Ann.rate, bil.dol. do Percent Ann.rate, bil.dol. Percent do Bil. dol 46.6 -10.4 -18.8 5.5 15.8 -8.4 63 55 32 29 30 28 37 42 9 5 -3 1 6.4 13.9 1.5 -10.3 -5.4 -6.5 -2.2 NA 4.3 NA -11.8 4.9 20 78 83 62 56 56 58 58 62 0 4 .6 0 26 88 2.41 66 1.67 17 -3.28 24 -1.12 37 -0.13 36 0.20 44 -1.05 45 -1.28 8 -1.25 1 -0.23 7 2.16 13 0.99 32 25 224.40 271.05 268.45 263.75 265.13 264.66 265.13 37.95 46.73 47.73 46.83 47.02 46.60 47.02 NA NA 0.2 0.9 NA NA -1.8 -1.9 0.5 0.4 71 65 0.1 -1.6 23 13.0 -1.6 19 12.8 11.4 16.9 15.7 16 18 0 9 0 6 22 15 17 34 35 55 55 58 37 LAGGING INDICATORS Inventories: *71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value5 . . . . 65. Mfrs.' inven. of finished goods, book value5 . B5. Bil. dol., EOP . . . do Prices, Costs, and Profits LEADING INDICATORS Sensitive Commodity Prices: *23. Industrial materials prices® 1967=100 Stock Prices: *19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks® Profits and Profit Margins: *16. Corporate profits, after taxes, current dol. . . 18. Corporate profits, after taxes, 1958 dollars.. 22. Ratio, profits to income originating in corporate business2 15. Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg. 2 . . *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg 34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars 35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars 173.1 219,0 181.2 181.3 178.4 179.6 184.2 181.9 2.6 1941-43=10 . . . 107.43 82.84 78.81 89.07 87.62 85.71 84.67 88.57 -1.2 Ann.rate, bil.dol. do 72.9 50.2 85.0 53.1 62.3 35.9 70.3 40.0 82.2 46.3 11.2 12.1 5.6 116.1 129.0 81,3 9.3 10.2 11,5 i 106.1 114.5 ! 79.0 115.8 109.6 62.5 113.6 115.4 67.1 74.3 125.9 0.9 129.2 154.1 1.9 153.8 168.3 0.3 168.0 170.2 0.2 169.4 172.2 0.6 172.2 131.1 146,5 157.5 158.8 157.1 0 8 0.978 121.7 132.5 1.043 145.3 1.034 148.3 1.022 149.0 Percent Cents 1967=100 Ann.rate, bil.dol. do 5.0 3.8 4.4 -1.2 4.6 115.0 116.2 116.7 1.0 0.4 -1.9 8.9 7.4 I 3 NA 1.6 11.4 10,7 172.2 0.6 172.3 173.1 0.7 173,0 174.7 1.2 174.5 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.9 1.1 -0.1 0.8 1.2 0.4 1.7 NA ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS Comprehensive Wholesale Prices: 55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities® . 55c. Chg. in whsle. prices, indus. commod., S/A 2 . 58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods® . . . 1967=100 Percent 1967=100 1 LAGGING INDICATORS Unit Labor Costs: 63. Unit labor cost, total private economy 68. Labor cost per unit of gross product, nonfinancial corporations *62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg Dollars 1967=100 1 0.879 148.9 —1 l 63 m 1 9 0.5 68 62 -8.82 85 149.0 149.8 0.1 6.5 n o -o.v 2.1 2.85 -0.82 0.81 10.26 4.02 -1.13 -0.75 5.78 -7.02 102 7.28 -1.65 9.74 NA 5.87 21.31 6.68 NA -0.50 NA 3.28 NA 5.68 9.02 1.65 2.62 -5.68 5.17 13.44 9.48 103 33 112 113 110 B6. Money and Credit LEADING INDICATORS Flows of Money and Credit: 85. Change in money supply (M1) 2 102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks (M2) 2 103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at banks and nonbank institutions (M3) 2 33. Change in mortgage debt 2 112. Change in business loans2 *113. Change in consumer installment debt 2 110. Total private borrowing Credit Difficulties: 14. Liabilities of business failures ( i n v e r t e d 4 ) ® . . 39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inv. 4 ) 2 5 . Ann.rate.percent. 5.98 4.66 0.88 11.14 2.32 2.86 2.04 do 8.51 6.99 7.52 13.30 6.28 5.90 4.77 6.55 9.79 15.47 8.50 9.79 9.43 48.01 35.51 28.11 37.13 42.30 38.22 21.00 21.97 -22.91 -21.26 -7.82 -18,72 8.41 -2.40 20.08 6.00 0.22 9.70 177.64 167.82 95.04 107.43 120.08 7.78 47.96 2.59 12.6b do Ann.rate, bil.dol. do do do Mil. dol Percent, EOP . . . 191.55 254.43 373.08 301.93 223.33 222.44 205.53 2.80 2.94 2.59 2.27 2.63 2.65 2.59 NA NA 7.6 0,06 Mil. dol. -1/389 -1/797 NA NA 1 "5 0 11 19.1 0.31 26.0 0.04 Q 14 39 ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS Bank Reserves: 93. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 2 ® Interest Rates: 119. Federal funds r a t e 2 ® 114. Treasury bill r a t e 2 ® 116. Corporate bond y i e l d s 2 ® 115. Treasury bond y i e l d s 2 ® 117. Municipal bond y i e l d s 2 ® .. Percent . . . do . do . .do. .do. 8.74 7.03 7.89 6.31 5.19 10.51 7.87 9.42 6.98 6.17 -60 84 -123 44 -136 42 180 -178 -144 207 93 6.30 5.87 9.16 6.70 6.65 5.42 5.40 9.61 6.97 6.96 6.16 6.33 9.72 7.09 7.23 6.14 6,46 9.70 7.11 7.17 6.24 6.38 9.89 7.26 7.44 5.82 6.08 9.54 7.29 7.39 0.10 -0.08 0.19 0.17 0.27 -0.42 -0.30 -0.35 0.01 -0.05 -0.88 -0.47 0.45 0.27 0.31 0.74 0.93 0.11 0.12 0.27 119 114 116 115 117 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic data1 Series title Unit of measure Percent change Average 1973 1974 1st Q 1975 2dQ 1975 3dQ 1975 Aug. 1975 Sept. 1975 Aug. to Sept. 1975 Oct. 1975 Sept. to Oct. 1975 1stQ to 2dQ 1975 2dQ to 3dQ 1975 B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con. B6. Money and Credit-Con. LAGGING INDICATORS Outstanding Debt: 66. Consumer installment debt5 *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding . Bil.dol., EOP . Bil. dol Interest Rates: 109. Average prime rate charged by banks 2 ® *67. Bank rates on short-term business l o a n s 2 ® . . . 118. Mortgage yields, residential 2 ® Percent . . . do . do. 8.02 8.30 8.19 10.80 11.28 9.55 8.98 9.94 8.84 7.33 8.16 NA 7.56 8.22 9.40 7.65 Mil. dol. .do . do . 1967=100 Mil. dol. . . 119 5/905 2/343 189 5/786 -193 8/166 3/166 207 8/359 696 8/972 3/369 179 8/277 1/115 8/469 3/390 194 7/353 996 9/015 3/368 216 8/019 1/035 8/996 3/479 225 7/961 3/574 4/177 525 568 -840 84 -245 -2/672 -1/913 -4/761 -1/328 -2/094 3/178 2/230 2/003 -673 3/108 •3/267 5/259 4/784 4/061 1/611 1/104 -1/616 144.52 152.93 106.08 125.35 52.33 152.39 154.81 153.76 154.81 NA 31.13 125.39 122.16 121.57 121.79 122.28 0.7 0.2 NA 0.4 0.0 -4,4 1.6 -2.6 66 72 0.07 •1.65 -1.78 NA 0.23 0.06 NA 109 67 118 NA NA NA NA NA 419 -5.6 0.6 8.4 -11.2 -119 6.4 -0.6 11.3 9.1 500 502 506 508 512 NA NA NA NA 289 4/923 2,081 2,554 2,058 2,284 •2,004 1,651 NA NA NA NA -815 6/539 250 515 517 519 521 522 -48,9 36.2 17.4 2.2 1.5 3.9 30.8 12.1 NA 600 601 602 264 616 621 648 625 1.6 2.1 0.0 2.1 211 781 781 750 7.89 7.96 0,24 9.74 9.53 0,42 976 9/165 3/286 210 8/189 NA NA NA NA NA -59 1.9 -5.5 -6.7 2.9 D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS D1. Foreign Trade 500. 502. 506. 508. 512. Merchandise trade balance2 Exports, excluding military aid Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor vehicles, Export orders, nonelectrical machinery General imports D 2 . U.S. Balance of Payments 250. 515. 517. 519. 521. 522. Balance on goods and services2 Bal. on goods, services, and remittances2 . . . Balance on current account2 Balance on curr. acct. and long-term capital 2 Net liquidity balance2 Official reserve transactions balance2 Mil. dol. . . do . do. do . do . .do . D3. Federal Government Activities 600. 601. 602. 264. 616. 621. 648. 625. Federal surplus or deficit, NIA 2 Federal receipts, NIA Federal expenditures, NIA National defense purchases Defense Department obligations, total Defense Department obligations, procurement New orders, defense products Military contract awards in U.S Ann.rate, bil.dol. do do do Mil. dol do Bil.dol Mil. dol -5.6 258.5 264.2 74.4 7/085 1/571 1.71 2/954 -8.1 291.1 299.1 78.7 7/753 1/741 1.90 3/457 -54.4 284.1 338.5 84.7 7,780 1/761 1.83 3/499 •103.3 251.8 355.0 84.8 8/212 1/639 1.74 3/940 -67.1 295.7 362.7 86.1 8/529 2/143 1.95 NA 1958=100 . 1967=100 . Percent . . . 1967=100 . 149.6 133.1 0.7 134.7 167.0 147.7 1.0 160.1 178.0 157.0 0.5 171.2 180.4 159.5 0.6 173.0 183.6 162.9 0.6 176.7 146.6 158.3 167.7 170.7 174.3 174.6 175,1 176.8 0.3 1.0 1.8 2.1 740 110.1 107,2 106.7 107.1 107.1 107.4 107.2 107.5 -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 741 95.73 148.8 111.8 115.1 113.6 90.97 161.9 109.6 112.0 110.4 88.15 170.8 108.6 110.3 108.4 90.26 173.9 109.0 111.5 109.9 91.51 177.2 108.9 114.4 112.8 91.82 91.70 91.66 -0.1 0.0 2.4 1.8 0.4 1.1 14 1.4 1.9 -0.1 2.6 2.6 859 745 746 770 858 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 -2.9 0.8 0.2 -7,0 0.6 1.2 4.9 841 842 843 -1.2 1.9 -4.9 850 851 -4.6 -5.8 -3.9 -3,5 852 853 41.3 -26.4 854 -5.8 0.2 14.8 -0.1 860 857 9/077 2/821 2.05 5/299 7/791 1/535 1.99 NA 162.8 163.6 0.2 0.5 176.7 177.7 NA NA 1.15 NA -14.2 -45.6 -2.9 NA NA NA -42.2 NA 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.7 . 0.1 5.6 -6,9 -4,9 12.6 D4. Price Movements 211. Fixed wtd. price index, gross priv. product . . . 781. Consumer prices, all items@. 781c. Change in consumer prices, all items, S/A2 . . . 750. Wholesale prices, all commodities® 164.6 0.7 178.9 1.3 1.6 0.1 1.1 D5. Wages and Productivity 740. Average hourly earnings, production workers in private nonfarm economy 741. Real average hourly earnings, production workers in private nonfarm economy 859. Real spendable avg. weekly earnings, nonagri. prod, or nonsupv. workers 745. Avg. hourly compensation, private nonfarm . . 746. Real avg. hourly comp., private nonfarm 770. Output per man-hour, total private economy . 858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm . . .do .do 1967 dol. 1967=100 do do . . . . do . D6. Civilian Labor Force and Major Components 841. Total civilian labor force 842. Total civilian employment 843. Number of persons unemployed (inverted)4 . .do . .do . 88/716 91/011 91/810 92/514 93/084 93/146 93/191 93/443 84/410 85/936 84/146 84/311 85/283 85/352 85/410 85/441 7/773 5/076 7/664 8,203 7/794 7/802 8/002 4/306 E. A N A L Y T I C A L M E A S U R E S E2. Analytical Ratios 850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2 . . 851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade . . . 852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods industries . . . 853. Ratio, prod., bus. equip, to consumer goods . 854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable personal income 860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed 857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing2 ® Percent . . . Ratio 83.0 1.47 79.0 1.51 68.2 1.67 67.0 1.62 68.9 1.54 1.54 1.53 NA -0.6 NA do . 1967=100 . 2.87 93.2 3.31 100.8 3.47 100.4 3.31 94.6 3.18 91.3 3.17 91.5 3.0b 91.5 NA 90.7 -2.8 0.0 NA -0.9 Ratio 0.082 0.079 0.075 0.106 0.078 do . Percent . . . 0.872 5.8 0.658 6.2 0.294 6.1 0.277 6.3 0.318 6.2 0.317 o.3ie 0.309 0.3 -2.8 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated b y ® , which appear to contain no seasonal movement. 'Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. NA = not available, a = anticipated. EOP = end of period. S/A-seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). For complete series titles (including composition of composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" in the back of BCD. x For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual figures are those published by the source agencies; otherwise, they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series) are averages of the data as shown in part II. differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series. 3 For the latest month, new indexes are based on 11 components, old index on 9. 4 Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed. 5 End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period. 8 Chart Al GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (Aug.XApr.) P T (July) (May) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T 16001500 14001300120011001000- "TT 200. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate,toil,M . ] 900800- r 700- 205. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q (am. rate, ML dol.) 600200190180170160150140130- 210. Implicit price deflator, Q (index: 195H0D) 215. Per capita GNP in current dollars, Q (an. rate, thous. dol.) .22 S 217. Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars, (ann. rate, thous. DOI.) 1953 54 55 56 57 58 Current data for these series are shown on page 69. B C D NOVEMBER 1975 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart A2 NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME (July) (May) P I (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T , 220. 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 69. 10 NOVEMBER 1975 BCII Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart A3 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES P P T (Dec.) (Nov.) (Apr.) (Feb.) (Aug.)(Apr.) (July) (May) T P P T T Annual rate, billiw dollars 232. Durable goods, total, current dollars, Q 3 3 . Durable goods, total excluding automobiles, current dollars, Q 234. Automobiles, current dollars, Q 236. Nmdarable goods, total, orrent dollars, Q 237. Services, total, cirreit dollars, Q 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 70. BCD NOVEMBER 1975 11 Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart A4 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (July) (May) T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T 242. Nonresidential structures, Q 243. Producers' durable equipment, Q 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 70. 12 NOVEMBER 1975 BCII Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart A5 FOREIGN TRADE (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (July) (May) P T +20- +15- 250. Net exports of goods and services, B +10- +5- 0- -5- Ml -10 J 251 Exports of goals and s l i c e s , Q 253. Imports of goods and services, 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 71. BCD NOVEMBER 1975 13 Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart A6 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T t"ji '^ 266. State arel local governments, Q .t*000*^^ 2602402202001801601401201008060- 40- 20-1 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 71. 14 NOVEMBER 1975 BCII Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart A7 FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES 1953 54 (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (July) (May) P T 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 71. B C D NOVEMBER 1975 15 Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart A8 NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS (July) (May) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T rate, billion dollars (current) 280. Compensation of employees, 0 284. Rental income of persons, Q 286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Q 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72. 16 NOVEMBER 1975 B C D Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart A9 SAVING (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (July) (May) P T 290. Grass saving (private and government), Q 298. Bovemfflent serplus or deficit, 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 72. NOVEMBER 1975 17 Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart A10 REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (July) (May) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T 247. Fixed investment, nonresidents ^ * < " residential stractires, 1958 dollars, I / of goods aid servicos, 1 B dollars, Q 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 56 67 68 89 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 70, and 72. 18 NOVEMBER 1975 ItCII Section A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart A l l SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME Gross National Product Shares (Aug.)(Apr.) (July) (May) P P T T (Dec.) (Nov.) (Apr.) (Feb.) P P T Hit lilt ii SfUSS T [percent 230A. Personal conswi pUoQ expenditures as penHint (win Hi Mm w t W H ) ftj^M^ i f ^ g S ^ f i : 70 n ••. ' - : y ; •'•'•'^•vi . . •"•: '•• '•••"• 65- tlf§l|L illliil IB* IWHH 60J 20 n 15- 10- 5- 0J 245A. Change in 25QA. Net exports of goods aid as percent of GWr Q National Income Shares 80n 75- 70- 65J 10- 5- 0J 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 73. BCII NOVEMBER 1975 19 Section CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Chart Bl EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Leading Indicators (July) (May) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T employees—Invited scale 1953 54 20 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 NOVEMBER 1975 ItCII Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Chart Bl EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators (Aug.)(Apr.) (July) (May) P P T (Dec.) (Nov.) (Apr.) (Feb.) T P P T T 1 46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1987-100) •cultural establishments (an. rate, HI Emphqpees ot magriciiltBral payrolls (minis) 42. Persons engaged in nonagrioiltHral activities (milliocs) 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 75. I B M ) NOVEMBER 1975 21 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Chart EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con. Bl Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con. (July) (May) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T Comprehensive Unemployment rate, Wai (percent-inverted scale Average wukly insured unemployment rate (percent—invKted scale) 234- is/ A/ 56- Lagging I n d i c a t o r s Long-Duration Unemployment 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 75. 22 NOVEMBER 1975 BCII Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Chart B2 PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE Roughly Coincident Indicators (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (July) (May) P T ii a m * Mbrs, Q (an. rate, Ml. M.) 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected. Current data for these series are shown on page 76. NOVEMBER 1975 23 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Chart B2 PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con. Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con. (July) (May) P T 1 (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T Comprehensive Consumption and Trade Manufacturing ami trade sales (bil. dol 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production. Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected. Current data for these series are shown on page 76. 24 NOVEMBER 1975 IICII Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Chart B3 FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT Leading Indicators (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (July) (May) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T Formation of Business Enterprises 13. New business incorporations (thousands) *6. Mew orders, durable goods industries (ML dol 8. Caistractioi contracts, total value (iidex: 1167=100; MCD moving avg.-5-tern) 1 •10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment (bil. dol.) 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. Current data for these series are shown on page 77. ItCII NOVEMBER 1975 25 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Chart B3 FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con. Leading Indicators—Con. (July) (May) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T B B N e w Investment Commitments - Con. 1 (Dec.) (Nov.) P T 18 ;\r., : 16 14 / \ 1210- 11. New capital appropr iations, manfactyring, >f > *! / \ i (iH. m / B6W OTDCTS, capnBi gooos inoustriBs Coflstroctlfli cootracts, e o m i ^ l i aid industrial (nil. sq. f | i floor ana; «C8 wviag avfWlW Hew private housing units started, total (am. rate, millions; MCD moving avg.--4-tenn) •29. Men building permits, private housing units (index: 1967=108) 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency. Current data for these series are shown on pages 77 and 78. 26 NOVEMBER 1975 ItCII Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Chart B3 FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (July) (May) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T 160 M B i Backlog of Investment Commitments 140120- drilled orders, Arable goods iMhstrits (Ml. w.r 4p 100- / 8060- T 50- m 40- 30- 97. BicWog of capital appropriations, maariacturiag, 0 (Ml. del)1 20- Lagging Indicators 140120100- 61. Busffltss expenditures, new plant and equipment 0 (am. rate, bit. dol.) 8060180 160140120100- ttadiinerv and Miiiiuiioiit sates and business constniGtion esppdHnres (ann. rate, bil. dot.) 80- 60- 40- 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board. Current data for these series are shown on page 78. IICII NOVEMBER 1975 27 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Chart B4 INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Leading Indicators (July) (May) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) 245. Change in business inventories, Q (ann. rale, bil. dot.) * 31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (ann. rate, Ml. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term) 37. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories 5025J 20. Change in book value, manufacturers inventories of (ann. rate, bii. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term) 0-54f—J -10 J 26. Buying policy, production materials, percent of companies reporting commitments 60 days or longer 7050J 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and 79. 28 NOVEMBER 1975 BCII Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Chart B4 INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con. Leading Indicators—Con. (July) (May) P T performance, percent of companies reporting slower Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries . dol.; MCD moving avg.--4-term) Lagging Indicators ••.; : mitt mm.. -• wins ftSflll f 1 ; • .fUft 300260- ,.. . Ill : : Ullli Si ifiti • •71. • l v a l u e , manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. dol.) i§||§! 220- waii 180IliHii 140- 100- lilii liiii ^ 65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, fini:shed goods (bil. dol.) J J^-'H . ^*~S^ — 55-. 504540353025- • 20^ ^ 15- 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected. Current data for these series are shown on page 79. ItCII NOVEMBER 1975 29 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Chart B5 PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS Leading Indicators (July) (May) P (Apr.) (Feb.) (Aug.)(Apr.) T P T P (Dec.) (Nov.) P T T Sensitive Commodity Prices *23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1967=100) *19. Stock prises, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10) Corporate profits after taxes, 0 (aa. rate, bil. dol.) *% Current dollars 22. Ratio, profits (alter taxes) to income originating / " " " X i k corporate taSttss, B (percent) 1210- 8 J 15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, manufacturing, 0 (cents) 53 J 130 120- *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index: 1967-100) 110- 100- 90- 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on pages 79 and 80. 30 NOVEMBER 1975 ItCII Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Chart PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con. B5 Leading Indicators—Con. (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (July) (May) P T 34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars Q (ann. rate, bil. dol 35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1S58 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) Roughly Coincident Indicators , industrial commodities (index: 1967=100) Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (index: 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 80. NOVEMBER 1975 31 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Chart B5 PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con. Lagging Indicators (July) (May) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T !ii Ball 170- 111 m J Illlpi liii /•* 160- / so 150140130- Unit labor cost, total private t c n a n y - Mi 63. Index, Q (1967-100) >^ 120110- mi 100- film 63c. Cbaige over 1-quarter spans, Q (ann. rate, percent) -5J 1.15-j 1.101.051.000.950.900.85- 68. Labor cost (coir, dol.) per n i t of real corporate product, Q (dollars) 0.80- •62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967=1IKI) 110100- nisi 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 9071 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 80. 32 NOVEMBER 1975 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Chart B6 MONEY AND CREDIT Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Leading Indicators (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (July) (May) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T in money sa^ily plus time deposits at banks and institutions (M3) (am. rate, percent; Koving avg.-fi- 33. Change in mortgage debt (am. rats, Ml. dol.) 112. Change in business loans (ann. rate, bil. dol MCD soviflg avg.--6-teri8) 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 81. B I J ) NOVEMBER 1975 33 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Chart B6 MONEY AND CREDIT—Con. Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Leading Indicators—Con. (July) (May) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) Total private borrowing, 0 (ann. rate, HI. M ) Credit Difficulties 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 81. 34 NOVEMBER 1975 KM) Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Chart B6 MONEY AND CREDIT—Con. Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Roughly Coincident Indicators (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (July) (May) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T > 93. Free reserves (biL dol.—inverted scale) 119. Federal tails rate (percent) 116. Corporate bond yields (percent) 117. Municipal timd yields (percent) 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. NOVEMBER 1975 35 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Chart B6 MONEY AND CREDIT—Con. Economic Process and Cyclical Timing Lagging Indicators (July) (May) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T 66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, : weekly reporting large commercial banks (bil. dol.) prime rate charged by banks (percent) rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent) yields, residential (percent) 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. 36 NOVEMBER 1975 ItCII Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing Chart B7 COMPOSITE INDEXES (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (July)(May) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T of twelve leading iidicators, reverse trend adjusted1 coincident indicators Ilii 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 NOTE: The old index of 12 leading indicators is shown in appendix G. Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates. KCII NOVEMBER 1975 37 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing Chart B7 COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con. Leading Indicator Subgroups (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (July)(May) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Apr.) i Feb.) PI (Dec.)(Nov.) P T I Index: | » 1 1 MargiBl emloviKflt adnstmeats 100- 908070- and purchasing (series 23,25,31, 37) an 140-i 130120- J^ 816. ProfitJiitfty (series 16,17,19) 110100908070130- 117. Sensitive financial flows (series 33,85,112,113) 120110- 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 6& 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 83. 38 NOVEMBER 1975 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Chart B8 NBER SHORT LIST Selected Indicators by Timing Leading Indicators (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (July)(May) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T *6. few orders, dirilit goods M&stries (HI 1948 49 50 01 52 53 54 56 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66. 67 -""? «'••• 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 77. ItCII NOVEMBER 1975 39 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing Chart B8 NBER SHORT LIST—Con. Leading Indicators—Con. (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (July)(May) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T vaise, manufacturing and trade inventories (ann. rate, bil. fol, MCD moving avg.--6 term) materials prices (index: 1967-100) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and 79. 40 NOVEMBER 1975 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Chart B8 NBER SHORT LIST—Con. Selected Indicators by Timing Leading Indicators—Con. (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (July)(May) P T (Nov.) (Oct.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T h consumer installment debt (an. rate, Ml ihil) Roughly Coincident Indicators 807570- Employees on nonagricultural payrolls 65- 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 79, 80, and 81. KCII NOVEMBER 1975 41 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing Chart B8 NBER SHORT LIST—Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con. (July)(May) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T 1600150014001300120011001000900- Personal Income (am. rate, Iii. H . ) 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 76. 42 NOVEMBER 1975 Section B CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing Chart B8 NBER SHORT LIST—Con. Lagging Indicators (Nov.) (Oct.) P (Aug.)(Apr.) (July)(May) P T T P (Apr.) (Feb.) T P T 15 weeks and over (percent—isverted new (dart and t M M M t , Q (ann. rate, Ml. dol.) value,raanrtacturingand inventories (fail, dol.) •62. Labor cost per uift if outpt, mariafacturing (index: 1867410) •72. Cownercial and WusUial loans outstanding, reporting large commercial banks (bil. dol.) ill 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 78, 79. 80. and 82. KCII NOVEMBER 1975 43 Chart C l (Aug.) (Apr.) P T AGGREGATE SERIES (Apr.) P (Feb.) T (Dec.) P •iH mm IS II H I (Nov.) T 61. BUSJHSS expenditures for aew plant and equipment, all industries, Q 150- •ill 130- liiil 120- 140- m 110- > nil. 10090- i | (a) Actual expenditures (am. 8070- 60- sil 50- i • tlllH / 40- 30 J < .. .^.Jt (b) Se T ^,,,... :1;1 . T T |*pi *^ i. 1 ^li i as oercent of act * 1 1i1 T T1 tilt•iiiH 106 -i E! T ITT It •tr? t 102 100- 98- ^iiil 96 (0 First TTf 104 106- HrillTTaitT.il Bl 1041021009896- 1957 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 1976 Current data for these series are shown on page 84. 44 NOVEMBER 1975 BCII Section C ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS Chart AGGREGATE SERIES-Con. Cl (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Dec.) P (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Nov.) T 140 120 - H ioo80- 60 J 40- percent considered high less percent / 30- \ '•••• . ^ - • ^ • 20- . V . 10- 0J 10 -i IIWS' capacity: i«GMt CORSififiFN fflMmH8i0 nctsslw, Q (parent--inverted scale) f / / \ %_^ Q 3040- 4 .••—* 20- 50- •*«•. 435. Index of consun \ \ ...••••• -^ v -.-••••• v * v \ / I (1st. a1966=100) 100 90- / \ 8070- / • 1957 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 / 6075 1976 Current data for these series are shown on page 84. P NOVEMBER 1975 45 Section C ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS Chart C2 DIFFUSION INDEXES (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dec.) P (Nov.) T & D440. Heworders D442. Net profits, matwfactaring awl trails (4-0 span)1 M M . Met sales, manefactahng and trade D446. tomber of employees, manufacturing ari trade (4-Q span)1 1957 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 1976 Current data for these series are shown on pages 84 and 85. 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet Inc. 46 NOVEMBER 1975 ItCII Section C ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS Chart C2 DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con. (Dec.) P (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Nov.) T tffhsiQfl iidexes: ptrctRt rising it D450. Level of iBveflttries, manuteturiBg a«I tr^« (4-Q span) 100- 1462. Selling prices •Mtrfactirinf <4-0 spaV V S . 9080- _j { Vwv* VTr • v 7060- '\ b * J^ "^"^^•^•^.^•t ,••-••••1 ^..g.or*" 50100- s 100 - D466. Sellii? prices, retail trade (4-0 spa) 1 „ • , P-- 90- miipiujMurj ^i \r 80706050- 1957 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 1976 Current data for these series are shown on page 85. 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. NOVEMBER 1975 47 Chart D l FOREIGN TRADE (July) (May) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T 580. Merchandise trade balance dot.; MCD moviif avz.-6-term) 502. Exports, except military aid (bil. dol.j MCD moving avg.-B-te™) 506. Export onltrs, durables except motor vehicles (Ml. do).; MCD moving avg.-6-tetH) 508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery ? (index: 1967=100; MCD roving avg.-4-tem) 512. General inports (Ml. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-tenB) 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 86. 48 NOVEMBER 1975 Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS Chart D2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS P P T (Dec.) (Nov.) (Apr.) (Feb.) (Aug.)(Apr.) (July) (May) T P P T T +6-. +4- | | 0 . Balance on goods and services USB +2- 0- 515. Balance on goods, services and remittances -2+6isptii Iiii +4- 1 1 11 1 j§|. Balance OB current account +2- 0- Pi iwilii! Jilt -2- •li -4- IB 111 •• PHI iffiii +4- lilt. MM. Official reserve transactions balance +2- 111! •in iiiis -2- -4iliii ifili m isi i|iH . fifiiifli •itiii! -6- iillt SHI ^1 IPl! -8- •11 iiiitf .n •. MB lUii iitw • -ii H i .• •• . : i ^ ^ •:.... HI 1953 -10- . .. •• Hii sit iiii . Si 54 55 56 57 -12-» Ulil 5859 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 87. I M . J P NOVEMBER 1975 49 Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS Chart D2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con. (July) (May) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T lilies to all foreipers, oststanding at end of period 532. U«M art cartaia mttpH UaUIIUes nreip oTnciai dgeocies, outsuwing at Hi 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 534. U.S. official reserve assets-res^e position at 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 87. End-of-year figures are used prior to 1960. 50 NOVEMBER 1975 BCII Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS Chart D2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con. 204192180168156144132120108- 968472J 152-i 144136128120112104- 258., Bstance on goods aid services 9688807264566056524844403632282420- 16- Invested income, military sales and expendlufgs, aid other services— 12- 541. Imports 8- 4J 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 87. Annual totals are used prior to 1960. BCII NOVEMBER 1975 51 Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS Chart D2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con. (July) (May) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T Investment Income, Military Sales Annual rate, billion dollars nd Expenditures, and Other Services 3 Excess of receipts (inflow) 1 Excess of payments (outflow) 32-i 28- 24- 20- 16- 12- 542. Income on U.S. investments abroad 4- 0- 143. Income on foreign investments in the U.S. 8- Travel— 545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad 4- 0- 544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S. 8- Military sales and expenditures— 547. U.S. military expenditures abroad 4- 0- 546. Military sate to foreigners 16- 12- Transportation and other services— 8- 4- 549. Payments 0- 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960. 52 NOVEMBER 1975 B M I Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS Chart D2 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con. P P T (Dec.) (Nov.) (Apr.) (Feb.) (Aug.)(Apr.) (July) (May) P T P T T +12-i Capital Movements Plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers mml • Excess of receipts (inflow) Direct investments iftjfftii +4- 0- Hill / * 560. Foreign investments in the U.S. -4+8- +4- 0- 564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities -4- > i M . Boverpinertgraitsanilcapitaltraiisactioiis.net 0- -4- 3§ii§ -8- 11 +4- . Banking and other capita! transactions, net. Hi i l •• AA 11 .: 11 - ". llpif:; l ^ j ^ V V 'VS-i/ 1 0- v -9 V \i '••3*0 tSP B ill!' Ililii i l -4- 1 III f» 111 11 JS ; ; I] ; -8- -12.32 S -16- -20- -24- -28- -Sit'ill* -32- 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960. licit NOVEMBER 1975 53 Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS Chart D3 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES (July) (May) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T Receipts and Expenditures 600. Federal surplus er deficit, natioial income and product aeconts, Q (am. rate, till, lot.) / ~\ jr v* 801. Federal receipts, national income and product accounts, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.) 602. Federal expNtbres, national tocom aid predict accents, Q (am. rate, bil. iel.) 150- 100 - 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 89. 54 NOVEMBER 1975 BCII Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS Chart D3 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con. (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (July) (May) P T 264. National defense purchases, fl (ann. rato, Ml. dol.) 616. Defense Department obligations, total (bil. *rf.; MCD moving avg.-6-term) Department obligations, 647. New orto^, defense prodBCts industries (bil. doL; MCD moving avg.--6-term) 648. New orders, defense products (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.~6-term) 625. Military contract awards i i U.S. (bil. W . ; MCD fflwiog avg.-6-tem 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 LLMM 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 89. not NOVEMBER 1975 55 Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS Chart D4 PRICE MOVEMENTS (July) (May) P (Apr.) (Feb.) (Aug.)(Apr.) T P T P (Dec.) (Nov.) T P T 190180170 • 160 150- 211. Fixed weighted price index, gross private product (variable weights prior to 1965), Q (index: 1958=100) 140 130 - 180170- iBfcX: 1967==100 160150- y 140130- Consumer prices— 120« 180- 781. All items 170160150140130120- 784. Services iB- 200190180- / 170- r/ E sE 150- -— ^~— , — ^ ^ r / no 160- 140130- Fnml 120 | UK. A A/vVv A *** 783. Commodities less foods Change price index, gross private product, mange in HI fixed mm weighted we over 1-quarter spai % 781c. Change in consumer price index, ail items (seasonally adj.)— AAMAAXA*] One-month spans1 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 1 One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans. See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 90. 56 110- NOVEMBER 1975 Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS Chart D4 PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con. (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (July) (May) P T Wholesale prices- 58. Manufactured goods 751. Processed foods and feeds 55c. Changetowholesale price index, industrial commodities (seasonally adj.) 1953 54 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 1 One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans. See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 91. ItCII NOVEMBER 19/5 57 Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS Chart D5 WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY (July) (May) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T Average hourly wirings of private wrfani ecwony (anal M i r i e r to 1964) liar earnings (index: 1967=100) 741. Real earnings (index spendable » g . weekly eaniigs, D W f r t profifliSi •Hsupervisorv workers (1967 dollars) Average beirtj cenpeisatioe, aJi anileyees private MHfarl econony— 745. Ckrrent dollar cmpMsatien, Q (ifldex: 1967=100) 746. Real cwupensatiM, (index: 1967=101) 77S.: ftatnit per nan-boar, total private 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93. 58 NOVEMBER 1975 Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS Chart D5 WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con. (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (July) (May) P T 745c. Cirrent dollar compensation Ii. Nj . SSI .. ; , .} I I I .', Wm +5- 0- Four-quarter span lilt .• : • • • • iifUfl 1^91 / « c . Keai compensation -garter span (ann. rate) Negotiated ^ j decisions, lit if 748. First year avg. changes UK 8 111 749. Average changes over contract, 0 (ann. rate[ W0k 770c. Change in output per man-hour, total private +50-5- -10J 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.2One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans. See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown pn pages 92 and 93. NOVEMBER 1975 59 Section D OTHER KEY INDICATORS Chart D6 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS (July) (May) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T [Civilian Labor Force 845. Females 20 years and over 846. Both sexes, 16-19 years of afe 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 94. 60 NOVEMBER 1975 Chart E l ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (July) (May) P T 1953 54 55 56 57 58 (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 95. 'Trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 3d quarter 1975. See special note on page 95. ItCII NOVEMBER 1975 61 Section E ANALYTICAL MEASURES Chart E2 ANALYTICAL RATIOS (Aug.)(Apr.) P T 'July) (May; P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T 100-j 959085807570651.8- 851. Rate, [•vettories to sales, •awfactMiHg » d trade (ratio) 1.71.61.51.4- & 1.3- o.io-j saviflf ts disposable personal incone, Q (ratio) 854. 0.08- "X^AA y^M 0.06- •f M S M S uenolOYSd (ratio) 953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 6J 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 96. 62 NOVEMBER 1975 BCD Section E ANALYTICAL MEASURES Chart E 3 DIFFUSION INDEXES L e a d i n g Indicators (July) (May) P T 111 (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T if fl jjflJfi ftrafters,raawfactiriBg--21industries (9-rao. span—, 1 100- Iftf .jr.,; ( i - M ••••A lip? j • Jyf Ip ^ T " ^ ' ' ••;• ' - 500- piis MBlrits-S HdBStries ( N N . spa—, 1-mc.: a{)profHiatioas-17 industries (34 span—, 1-8 span BM. Profits, w«ifactiiriflg, FNCB-aboit 1,000 (4-Q span—, 1-fl prices-13 iadustrial materials (9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board. Current data for these series are shown on pages 97 and 98. licit NOVEMBER 1975 63 Section E ANALYTICAL MEASURES Chart E3 DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con. Roughly Coincident Indicators (Aug.)(Apr.) P T (July) (May) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T Bonagncultural payrolls—30 industries (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. 100 n 500 production--24 industries (6-mo. s p a n — , 1 J 100-i 500-1 100-1 50- 0J 100500- HIS 1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 98. 64 NOVEMBER 1975 ItCII Section E ANALYTICAL MEASURES Chart E5 RATES OF CHANGE (Aug.) (Apr.) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) (Dec.) (Nov.) P T P T change, 200. (c) 6NP in current dollars (1-Q span) Sftflii +20+15+10+50-5- Jilll .215. (c) 6ltf in constant dollars (1-Q spaa) Ma-hwrs it mafricaltifal K M I islmwts 47. Wex oi Mdistrial DfOdBctioi 1957 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 1976 To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide," pp. 117-120. BCII NOVEMBER 1975 65 Section F Chart Fl CONSUMER PRICES (July) (May) P T 1953 54 (Aug.)(Apr.) P T 55 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS 56 57 58 (Apr.) (Feb.) P T 59 60 61 (Dec.) (Nov.) P T 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 103. 66 NOVEMBER 1975 Section F INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Chart F2 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION P 1953 P T 54 55 56 57 P T 58 (Dec.) (Nov.) (Apr.) (Feb.) (Aug.)(Apr.) (July) (May) 59 60 P T 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 T 70 71 72 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on pages 103 and 104. NOVEMBER 1975 67 Section F INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Chart STOCK PRICES F3 (Aug.)CApr.) P T (July) (May) P T (Apr.) (Feb.) P T (Dec.) (Nov.) P T Stock prices— J ^ ^ 40-* 72. 73 74 1975 Current data for these series are shown on page 104. 68 NOVEMBER 1975 HCII NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT m Year and quarter b. Difference 210. Implicit price deflator 205. Constant (1958) dollars 200. Current dollars a. Total GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT b. Difference a. Total c. Percent change at annual rate b. Difference a. Total c. Percent change at annual rate (Index: 1958=100) (Index: 1958=100) c. Percent change at annual rate (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) +12.2 +10.5 +9.5 +12.7 770.9 786.6 798.1 814.2 +11.8 +15.7 +11.5 +16.1 +6.4 +8.4 +6.0 +8.3 144.6 145.3 146.5 148.0 +1.9 +0.7 +1.2 +1.5 +5.5 +1.9 +3.3 +4.1 +44.2 +29.0 +31.0 +35.1 +15.5 +9.6 +10.1 +11.2 832.8 837.4 840.8 845.7 +18.6 +4.6 +3.4 +4.9 +9.5 +2.2 +1.6 +2.3 150.0 152.6 155.7 158.9 +2.0 +2.6 +3.1 +3.2 +5.5 +7.3 +8.3 +8.6 ,1,358.8 1,383.8 1,416.3 1,430.9 +14.8 +25.0 +32.5 +14.6 +4.5 +7.6 +9.7 +4.2 830.5 827.1 823.1 804.0 -15.2 -3.4 »4.0 -19.1 -7.0 -1.6 -1.9 -9.0 163.6 167.3 172.1 178.0 +4.7 +3.7 +4.8 +5.9 +12.3 +9.4 +11.9 +14.4 1,416.6 1,440.9 rl,503.6 -14.3 +24.3 r+62.7 -3.9 +7.0 r+18.6 780.0 783.6 r808.3 -24.0 +3.6 r+24.7 -11.4 +1.9 r+13.2 181.6 183.9 rl86.0 +3.6 +2.3 r+2.1 r+4.7 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1,115.0 1,143.0 1,169.3 1,204.7 +31.8 +28.0 +26.3 +35.4 1,248.9 1,277.9 1,308.9 1,344.0 1972 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1973 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter...:... Fourth quarter 1974 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth auartqr , .. 1975 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter •(•GROSS NATIONAL • H i PRODUCT-Con. Year and quarter 215. Per capita GNP, current dollars 217. Per capita GNP, constant (1958) dollars Q [ 220. National income in current dollars NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME 222. Personal income in current dollars Disposable personal income 224. Current dollars (Ann. rate, dollars) (Ann. rate, dollars) +8.4 +5.1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 225. Constant (1958) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 226. Per capita, current dollars (Ann. rate, dollars) 227. Per capita, constant (1958) dollars (Ann. rate, dol.) 1972 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 5,^54 5,478 5,593 5,750 3,702 3,770 3,817 3,886 912.3 932.5 954.3 987.0 913.3 930.9 950.3 985.0 774.7 790.0 807.2 838.1 566.2 573.6 581.9 600.1 3,720 3,787 3,861 4,000 2,719 2,749 2,784 2,864 5,951 6,079 6,214 6,368 3,968 3,983 3,992 4,007 1,027.6 1,051.2 1,077.3 1,106.3 1,013.6 1,039.2 1,068.0 1,099.3 869.5 892.1 913.9 939.4 615.1 618.2 621.8 622.9 4,143 4,244 4,339 4,452 2,931 2,941 2,952 2,952 6,429 6,537 6,677 6,731 3,929 3,907 3,880 3,782 1,118.8 1,130.2 1,155.5 1,165.4 1,112.5 1,134.6 l,n.68.2 1,186.9 950.6 966.5 993.1 1,008.8 610.3 603.5 602.9 594.8 4,497 4,565 4,681 4,745 2,887 2,850 2,842 2,798 6,652 6,753 r7,030 3,663 3,673 r3,779 1,150.7 1,175.4 pi,227.0 1,193.4 1,220.5 1,015.5 1,078.5 591.0 620.2 rl,255.2 rl,079.6 r6ll.4 4,768 5,055 r5,047 2,775 2,907 r2,858 1973 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 19/4 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1975 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Cnmnlete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9,10, and 65. ItCII NOVEMBER 1975 69 NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT J ^ P E R S O N A L CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES Year and quarter 230. Total in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 231. Total in constant (1958) dollars 232. Durable goods, total, in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 233. Durable goods, total except autos, in current dollars 234. Automo Diles in current dol ars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rat 2, bil. dol. 236. Nondurable goods in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 237. Services in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 1972 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 701.5 720.6 736.8 757.2 512.8 523.2 531.2 542.2 112.1 116.2 121.2 124.3 75.5 77.9 79.4 82.4 36.6 38.3 41.8 41.9 288.4 297.4 302.0 310.9 301.0 307.0 313.6 322.0 781.7 799.0 816.3 823.9 552.9 553.7 555.4 546.3 132.4 132.1 132.4 124.3 87.0 87.3 87.0 86.3 45.4 44.8 45.4 38.0 323.3 332.7 343.8 352.1 325.9 334.2 340.1 347.4 840.6 869.1 901.3 895.8 539.7 542.7 547.2 528.2 123.9 129.5 136.1 120.7 88.1 91.5 92.5 88.1 35.8 38.0 43.6 32.6 364.4 375.8 389.0 391.7 352.4 363.8 376.2 383.5 913.2 938.6 r968.8 531.5 539.7 r548.6 124.9 130.6 89.6 93.5 r96.3 35.3 37.1 r42.3 398.8 410.1 r422.7 389.5 397.9 r407.5 1973 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1974 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1975 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter rl38.6 J J G R O S S PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS 240. Total 241. Nonresidential fixed investment Year and quarter (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 242. Nonresidential structures (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 243. Producers' durable equipment (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 245. Change in business inventories 244. Residential structures (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 1972 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 169.4 175.5 182.1 190.2 112.7 114.7 117.5 122.5 40.7 41.0 40.6 42.2 72.0 73.7 76.8 80.3 51.8 52.9 54.5 56.7 f5.0 +8.0 +10.2 +11.0 199.0 205.1 209.0 224.5 130.5 135.6 139.0 141.9 44.6 46.2 47.9 49.3 85.9 89.4 91.1 92.6 58.5 58.7 58.1 53.6 +10.0 +10.7 +11.8 +28.9 210.5 211.8 205.8 209.4 145.2 149.4 150.9 151.2 51.3 52.2 51.0 53.7 93.9 97.2 99.9 97.5 48.4 48.8 46.2 40.4 +16.9 +13.5 +8.7 +17.8 163.1 148*1 rl79.1 146.9 142.7 143.6 52.8 49.1 r49.6 94.2 93.6 r94.0 35.3 36.4 r41.0 -19.2 -31.0 r-5.5 1973 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1974 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1975 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "\" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12. 70 NOVEMBER 1975 NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT • M GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES wSm IN CURRENT DOLLARS H J F O R E I G N TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS Year and quarter 250. Net exports of goods and services (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 252. Exports of goods and services (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 253. Imports 262. Federal 260. Total of goods and services (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 264. National defense (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 266. State and local (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 1972 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter -7.1 -6.9 -4.8 -5.3 69.1 68.8 73.3 78.5 76.1 75.7 78.1 83.8 251.1 253.8 255.1 262.6 105.6 105.9 102.7 105.2 75.9 75.9 72.6 74.7 145.5 147.9 152.4 157.4 -0.8 +0.5 +6.7 +9.3 BS.S 95.4 103.7 113.6 89.5 94.9 96.9 104.3 269.0 273.3 276.9 286.4 106.4 106.2 105.3 108.4 75.0 74.0 73.3 75.3 162.6 167.1 171.6 177.9 +11.3 -1.5 -3.1 +1.9 131.2 138.5 143.6 147.5 119.9 140.0 146.7 145.7 296.3 304.4 312.3 323.8 111.5 114.3 117.2 124.5 75.8 76.6 78.4 84.0 184.8 190.1 195.1 199.3 142.2 136.0 rl42.0 133.4 119.8 331.6 338.1 r343.5 126.5 128.4 rl3O,5 84.7 84.8 r86.1 205.1 209.7 r213.0 1973 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1974 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter ., 1975 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter ^$.^> +16.2 r+12.2 rl29.8 Wm NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS • • IN CURRENT DOLLARS J J F I N A L SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS Year and quarter 270. Final sales (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 280. Compensation of employees Nondurable goods Durable goods 271. Change in business inventories (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 274. Final sales (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 282. Proprietors' income 284. Rental income of persons 275. Change in business inventories (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 1972 204.6 210.6 218.3 223.6 +2.7 +5.8 +6.8 +13.2 309.7 318.9 322.7 332.6 +2.2 +2.2 +3.4 -2.2 683.8 699.0 712.6 732.9 72.9 74.6 75.8 80.1 25.5 24.4 26.8 26.7 237.8 241.2 243.9 240.6 +6.1 +7.7 +9.0 +14.8 347.9 359.7 374.2 384.1 +3.9 +3.0 +2.9 +14.1 759.1 776.7 793.3 814.8 89.1 92.8 99.3 103.2 26.3 25.7 26.2 26.4 242.3 248.5 259.8 246.2 +8.7 -1.8 +5.7 +18.3 392.8 402.9 413.2 418.6 +8.2 +15.4 +3.0 -0.5 828.8 848.3 868.2 877.7 98.4 89.9 92.1 91.6 26.4 26.3 26.6 26.8 252.9 261.7 r268.7 -13.4 -14.7 r-9.2 433,2 449.8 461.3 -5.7 -16.3 r+3.7 875.6 885.4 r906.6 84.9 86.1 94.6 27.0 27.1 27.4 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1973 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1974 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1975 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 1 3 , 1 4 , 1 5 , and 16. BCD NOVEMBER 1975 71 NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT •••NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS • H IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con. Year and quarter 286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 288. Net interest (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) U 290. Gross saving (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS 292. Personal saving (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 296. Capital consumption allowances (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 298. Government surplus or deficit (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1972 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 86.5 89.5 92.9 99.8 43.6 44.9 46.2 47.5 164.4 169.4 175.0 I84.6 53.3 49.0 49.3 58.9 21.3 22.1 23.3 26.5 98.9 103.7 103.3 105.8 -8.2 -5.2 -0.6 -6.5 103.9 105.0 105.2 106.4 49.2 51.1 53.2 55.5 201.1 207.9 217.0 231.7 65.3 69.6 73.2 89.3 26.3 24.9 25.6 26.2 107.4 110.5 111.5 113.9 +2.1 +3.0 +6.7 +2.3 107.7 105.6 105.8 103.4 57.5 60.1 62.8 65.9 224.5 206.3 196.4 202.9 84.4 71.5 65.5 86.5 23.9 17.1 9.9 18.1 115.8 118.6 120.7 122.9 +0.4 -1.0 +0.2 -24.6 94*3 104.9 P 122.5 68.9 71.9 75.9 166.6 165.0 pl87.7 75.9 113.8 r84.6 21.5 27.9 P36.0 125.2 127.4 130.0 -56.0 -104.2 p-62.9 1973 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1974 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1975 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter j ^ R E A L GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT Year and quarter 273. Final sales, constant (1958) dollars 246. Change in business inventories, constant (1958) dollars 247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, constant (1958) dollars 248. Fixed investment, residential structures, constant (1958) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 249. Gross auto product, constant (1958) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 263. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, constant (1958) dollars 267. State and local government purchases of goods and services, constant (1958) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1972 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter +8.8 81.3 82.4 83.8 87.2 33.8 34.2 34.3 34.8 36.1 37.5 40.9 41.8 62.9 62.5 59.5 59.2 80.9 81.3 82.4 83.8 825.5 829.6 832.7 825.7 +7.3 +7.8 +8.0 +20.0 92.2 94.3 95.1 96.0 35.0 34.1 32.6 29.8 46.3 45.2 43.6 41.6 58.9 57.7 56.2 56.4 85.2 86.2 87.5 89.3 819.9 818.9 818.1 793.1 +10.6 +8.2 +5.0 +10.9 96.3 96.5 94.1 89.2 26.4 25.7 23.6 20.4 29.2 32.6 38.9 33.6 56.3 56.3 56.5 57.0 89.7 89.5 89.4 89.3 791.8 800.7 -11.7 -17.1 r-2.3 83.8 80.3 80.4 17.3 17.5 26.7 33.7 r39.2 57.4 58.3 r58.9 90.2 90.9 91.2 766.7 780.0 789.7 805.3 +4.2 +6.6 +8.5 1973 First quarter Second quarter . , ,, Third quarter Fourth quarter 1974 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1975 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter r8l0.6 rl9.4 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16,17, and 18. 72 NOVEMBER 1975 KCII NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME Year and quarter Percent of Gross National Product 241 A. Fixed investment, nonresidential 230A. Personal consumption expenditures 244A. Fixed investment, residential structures (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 245A. Change in business inventories 250A. Net exports of goods and services (Percent) (Percent) 262A. Federal Govt. purchases of goods and services 266A. State and local govt. purchases of goods and services (Percent) (Percent) 1972 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 62.9 63.0 63.0 62.9 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.2 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 +0.4 +0.7 +0.9 +0.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 9.5 9.3 8.8 8.7 13.0 12.9 13.0 13.1 62.6 62.5 62.4 61.3 10.410.6 10.6 10.6 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.0 +0.8 +0.8 +0.9 +2.2 -0.1 0.0 +0.5 +0.7 8.5 8.3 8.0 8.1 13.0 13.1 13.1 13.2 61.9 62.8 63.6 62.6 10.6 10.8 10.7 10.6 3.6 3.5 3.3 2.8 +1.2 +1.0 +0.6 +1.2 +0.8 -0.1 -0.2 +0.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.7 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 64.5 65.1 r64.4 10.4 9.9 9.6 2.5 2.5 2.7 -1.4 -2.2 r-0.4 +0.6 +1.1 r+0.8 8.9 8.9 8.7 14.5 14.6 14.2 1973 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 1974 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 1975 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter., Fourth quarter • SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Con. Percent of National Income and quarter 280A. Compensation of employees (Percent) 282A. Proprietors' income 284A. Rental income of persons (Percent) 286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Percent) (Percent) 288A. Net interest (Percent) 1972 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 75.0 75.0 74.7 74.3 8.0 8.0 7.9 8.1 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.7 73.9 73.9 73.6 73.6 8.7 8.8 9.2 9.3 74.1 75.1 75.1 75.3 76.1 75,3 P73.9 9.5 9.6 9.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.4 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.6 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 8.0 8.0 7.9 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 9.6 9.3 9.2 8.9 5.1 5.3 5.4 5.7 7.4 7.3 P 7.7 2.4 2,3 P 2.2 8.2 8.9 plO.O 6.0 6.1 p6.2 10.1 1973 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 1974 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 1975 First quarter .. Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 19. ItCII NOVEMBER 1975 73 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT Minor Economic Process Year and month ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS LEADING INDICATORS TIMING CLASS . . . . Job Vacancies Marginal Employment Adjustments workweek of production workers, manufacturing (Hours) 21. Average weekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing 2. Accession rate, manufacturing (Per 100 employees) (Hours) *5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs1 3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (Per 100 employees) (Thous.) Comprehensive Employment 48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (1967=100) (Ann. rate, bil. man-hours) 1973 40.5 Du.o 40.9 3.8 4.0 3.9 4.8 4.9 4.9 226 0)223 227 B)0.7 •0.8 126 126 127 146.60 147.73 148.41 April May June 40.9 40.7 40.7 0)4.0 3.9 3.8 4.7 4.7 4.8 238 234 233 0.8 0.9 0.8 125 126 127 148.74 149.13 149.57 July August September... 40.6 40.5 40.6 3.8 3.7 3.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 232 247 241 1.0 0.9 0.8 E)129 126 125 149.88 149.95 150.38 October November . . . December . . . 40.6 40.6 40.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 4.9 >4.9 244 251 284 0.9 1.0 1.1 127 126 122 150.40 151.74 151.46 January February March 40.5 40.4 40.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 306 323 312 1.4 1.2 1.2 117 116 117 150.88 151.32 151.07 April May June 39.3 40.3 40.2 2.7 3.4 3.4 4.5 4.6 4.4 293 291 306 1.1 1.1 1.1 120 119 119 149.15 151.70 151.29 July August September... 40.2 40.1 39.9 3.4 3.4 3.2 4.4 4.2 4.0 290 332 362 1.0 1.3 1.4 118 114 107 151.22 151.53 151.50 October November . . . December . . . 40.0 39.5 39.4 3.1 2.8 2.7 3.7 3.1 3.1 410 458 504 2.0 2.5 2.6 99 91 85 0)152.62 149.99 148.48 January February March 39.2 38.8 38.9 2.4 2.4 2.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 548 550 545 3.1 3.0 2.7 77 76 74 147.96 146.15 145.38 April May 39.1 39.0 39.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 3.9 3.5 3.5 517 496 487 2.6 2.6 2.1 74 74 81 145.58 145.70 145.04 July August September... 39.4 r39.7 r39.B P39.8 4.2 4.0 3.7 P3.6 410 U2 451 P432 1.5 1.5 1.7 pi.7 84 83 October November . . . December . . . 2.6 r2.8 r2.8 p2.7 145.35 rl46.8l rl47.15 pl47.96 January February March 1974 4.5 0.8 1975 June T83 p83 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by 0 ) ; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by 0 ) . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 2 0 , 2 1 , and 39. •'•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency. 74 NOVEMBER 1975 BCI» CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS • ^ E M P L O Y M E N T AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con. Minor Economic Process Year and month LAGGING INDICATORS ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con. TIMING CLASS . . . . *41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey 42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities, labor force survey (Thous.) (Thous.) Long-Duration Unemployment Comprehensive Unemployment Comprehensive Employment-Con. *43. Unemployment rate, total (Percent) 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs1 40. Unemployment rate, married males (Percent) *44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (Percent) (Percent) 1973 o & 2.4 2.4 2.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.8 0.9 Oo9 0.8 0.9 January February March 75,516 75,915 76,159 79,182 79,863 80,256 5.0 5.0 4.9 tC,O April May June 76,367 76,569 76,878 80,521 80,669 81,022 5.0 4.9 4.8 July August September... 76,940 77,207 77,366 81,144 81,148 81,626 4.8 4.8 4.8 October November . . . December . . . 77,673 77,973 78,058 82,024 82,006 82,011 January February March 78,068 78,196 78,236 April May June 2.8 2.8 E)4.6 2.6 H>2.1 4.8 4.9 H>2.6 2.2 2.2 82,051 82,050 82,126 5.2 5.2 5.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 0.9 0.9 0.9 78,351 78,^86 78,530 82,272 82,565 82,755 5.0 5.2 5.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.4 2.2 2.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 78,648 78,733 (H>78,830 H>82,970 82,823 82,913 5.3 5.4 5.8 3.2 3.2 1.0 1.0 3.4 2.7 2.7 2.8 78,790 78,374 77,723 82,864 82,314 81,863 6.0 6.6 7.2 3.7 4.2 4.9 3.0 3.3 3.8 January February March 77,319 76,804 76,468 81,179 80,701 80,584 8.2 8.2 8.7 5.5 6.0 6.4 4.5 4.7 5.2 1.7 April 76,462 76,510 76,343 80,848 80,890 81,140 8.9 9.2 8.6 6.8 6.9 6.6 5.6 5.8 5.7 2.6 2.8 3.1 August September... 76,679 r77,023 r77,275 81,628 81,884 81,872 8.4 8.4 8.3 6.2 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.0 5.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 October p77,492 82,019 8.6 P5.5 5.2 2.8 2.8 H>0.8 1974 July August September... October November . . . December . . . 1.1 1975 May June July 1.1 1.2 1.4 2.0 2.2 November . . . December . . . NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by H ) ; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by (fi>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 21, 22,41, and 43. 1 Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published "by source agency. NOVEMBER 1975 75 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS £ £ | PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE TIMING CLASS . . . . Minor Economic Process Year and month ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS Comprehensive Production Comprehensive Income *200. Gross national product in current dollars *205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars *47.Index of industrial production (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (1967=100) *52. Personal income (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) Comprehensive Consumption and Trade *56. Manufac53. Wages and turing and trade salaries in mining, manufactur- sales ing and construction (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) 57. Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Ann. rate, fail, dol.) Sales of retail stores *54. Current dollar sales 59. Deflated (1967 dollar) (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) 1973 832.8 122.2 123.4 123.7 1,002.0 1,014.4 1,024.5 235.1 238.0 239.8 135,962 138,404 140,538 1,238.9 40,707 41,242 41,979 33,930 34,106 H>34,393 April May June 837.4 124.1 124.9 125.6 1,031.7 1,038.9 1,047.2 242.2 244.1 246.8 140,215 141,924 141,697 1,267^2 41,185 41,723 41,167 33,384 339553 32,832 July August September... 840.8 126.7 126.5 126.8 1,056.1 1,067.6 1,080.4 248.4 249.7 253.4 144,754 145,309 145,226 1,297!0 42,767 42,355 42,529 34,011 33,349 33,339 1,344.0 H>845.7 127.0 E>127.5 126.5 1,090.8 1,100.0 1,107.1 255.7 258.7 259.9 149,196 151,899 150,929 42,970 42,976 42,116 33,494 33,209 32,121 January February March 1,358*.8 830.5 125.4 124.6 124.7 1,107.0 1,113.4 1,117.1 257.4 260.0 260.7 154,323 156,595 159,735 43,079 43,295 43,938 32,523 32,246 32,453 April May June 1,383^8 827.1 124.9 125.7 125.8 1,125.2 1,135.2 1,143.5 262.7 265.3 267.9 160,999 163,048 163,539 44,406 44,838 44,727 32,467 32,326 31,896 July August September... 1,416#.3 823.1 125.5 125.2 125.6 1,159.5 1,167.2 1,178.0 268.6 271.7 273.5 168,082 171,229 170,355 1,407.6 45,905 46,920 45,858 32,395 32,771 31,528 October November . . . December . . . 1,430'.9 804.0 124.8 121.7 117.4 1,185.0 1,184.5 1,191.0 E>274.6 267.4 264.3 170,997 167,918 162,347 1,413.1 45,844 44,529 45,109 31,212 30,064 30,416 January February March 1,245.9 October November . . . December . . . 1974 1,341^9 • •• 1975 January February March 1,416.6 780.0 113.7 111.2 110.0 1,191.1 1,193.4 1,195.7 261.2 255.4 255.2 161,915 163,248 159,050 1,435^8 46,006 46,914 45,951 30,922 31,493 30,630 April May June l,440'.9 783.6 109.9 110.1 111.1 1,203.1 1,214.3 1,244.1 255.7 256.7 259.1 162,374 163,038 165,504 1,471*9 46,813 48,173 48,578 31,035 31,971 31,922 112.2 114.0 rll6.0 1,238.9 1,255.9 rl,270.9 260.8 265.8 r269.5 169,124 rl72,349 (fl>pl73,277 509.1 49,655 r49,925 r49,473 32,319 r32,35O r32,000 Pll6.5 [H)pl,283.6 p272.7 (NA) E>p49,955 p32,253 , July August , September.. October November . . December . . H>rl,5O3"-6 r808.: NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by H ) ; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by |H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 23,24, and 42. 76 NOVEMBER 1975 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS £Q|FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT TIMING CLASS . . . . LEADING INDICATORS Minor Economic Process Year and month Formation of Business Enterprises *12.Index of net business formation (1967=100) New Investment Commitments 13. Number of new business incorporations *6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries 8. Index of construction contracts, total value1 *10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations 1 24. Value of manufacturers new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense (Number) (Bil.dol.) (1967=100) (Bil.dol.) (Bil.dol.) (Bil.dol.) 9. Construction contracts for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space1 (Million sq. feet) (Million sq. meters)2 1973 119.1 119.9 H>120.8 27,796 28,752 28,964 38.48 39.37 40.86 185 191 193 11.33 11.36 11.69 9.72 9.57 9.45 10.04 87.48 85.89 84.71 8.13 7.98 7.87 April May June 119.3 118.8 118.5 28,522 28,286 27,999 40.81 a.71 11.30 11.94 12.76 10.92 42.29 177 173 183 9.94 10.04 10.56 83.61 83.73 85.79 7.77 7.78 7.97 July August September... 118.2 117.2 115.6 27,664 26,689 26,240 41.01 41.71 40.70 175 199 182 12.62 12.65 12.26 11.67 10.57 10.28 10.39 0)95.42 89.80 83.77 [H>8.86 8.34 7.78 October November . . . December . . . 116.2 117.6 1H.0 26,809 26,718 24,881 42.71 43.04 41.24 191 194 161 13.29 13.40 12.73 12.20 10.93 11.16 10.94 91.60 87.47 69.51 8.51 8.13 6.46 January February March 113.3 113.0 113.9 26,511 27>056 26,458 41.63 42.60 42.40 155 187 181 12.66 13.17 13.01 12.86 11.00 11.42 11.30 76.53 80.67 75.07 7.11 7.49 6.97 April May June 115.9 116.3 115.7 D29,071 27,562 25,785 44.32 46.96 47.20 167 188 166 13.67 14.57 13.84 14.98 11.92 11.80 12.01 82.77 77.98 75.83 7.69 7.24 7.04 July August September... 118.6 114.6 111.1 27,790 26,495 26,313 47.42 E>49.18 ED15.16 46.21 177 170 187 B>16.38 0)12.80 11.80 11.83 76.64 82.17 73.70 7.12 7.63 6.85 October November . . . December . . . 105.2 105.1 106.3 25,404 25,555 25,003 44.39 42.70 38.09 148 154 176 12.87 12.34 13.64 12.68 11.38 10.62 10.46 62.47 56.71 54.25 5.80 5.27 5.04 January February March 102.9 101.7 103.0 24,406 24,298 24,922 36.17 37.36 35.97 135 135 153 11.39 11.34 11.44 11.46 10.08 9.97 9.52 54.39 46.54 39.69 5.05 4.32 3.69 April May June 103.4 104.8 110.7 26,506 26,634 26,843 38.98 39.43 39.73 189 182 174 13.01 12.99 12.34 rll.O8 10.31 10.30 10.14 56.90 44.79 50.54 5.29 4.16 4.70 July August September... 113.2 rll2.6 rell3.5 28,143 28,708 (NA) 42.69 r42.23 165 E>208 157 12.65 13.98 rll.93 pl0.82 10.73 10.39 rl0.21 52.60 43.25 50.12 4.89 4.02 4.66 October November . . . December . . . ell2.0 P42.78 166 pl2.21 plO.75 54.10 5.03 January February March 1974 13.52 14.08 1975 41.68 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by E ) ; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by (H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated: " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 25, 26, and 39. 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency: McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division (series 8 and 9) or The Conference Board (series 11). Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. NOVEMBER 1975 77 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS TIMING CLASS . . . . Minor Economic Process Year and month •••INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY l i l INVESTMENT U N F I X E D CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con. LEADING INDICATORS-Con. ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS LAGGING INDICATORS LEADING INDICATORS New Investment Commitments-Con. Backlog of Investment Commitments Investment Expenditures Inventory Investment and Purchasing 28. New private housing units started, total 1 (Ann. rate, thous.) *29.Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits1 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (1967=100) (Bil.dol.) )7. Backlog of rapital approbations, manuacturing2 (Bil.dol.) '61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construc:ion expend i:ures (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 245. Change in business inventories (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) *31. Change in book value of mfg. and trade inventories, total 37. Purchased materials, companies reporting higher nventories (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Percent reporting) 1973 January February March 2,486 2,376 2,309 195.7 191.8 177.7 82.27 83.91 86.80 April May June 2,096 2,313 2,087 164.4 166.4 176.7 92.74 July August September... 2,120 2,058 1,861 156.8 155.9 146.8 98.46 101.54 103.45 October November . . . December . . . 1,692 1,721 1,441 121.6 120.8 111.0 105.87 108.30 109.86 1,437 1,881 1,511 112.5 113.9 120.2 111.38 113.58 114.93 1,580 1,467 1,533 108.9 99.9 117.82 122.02 126.08 July August September.. 1,3H 1,156 1,157 89.6 80.0 73.5 October November . . December . . 1,106 1,017 880 69.9 66.4 72.1 129.67 134.30 E>135.70 134.22 132.66 129.94 January February . . . March 999 1,000 985 59.4 60.4 58.3 125.87 123.25 120.10 April May June 980 1,130 1,094 72.1 78.6 81.8 July August September.. 1,235 rl,269 rl,268 89.8 85.7 r94.4 118.23 117.48 116.75 117.21 117.41 rll6.36 October.... November . . December . . pl,458 P94.1 P115.O8 96.19 126.80 126.51 128.52 +10.0 +23.0 +25.2 +22.0 61 63 61 97.76 131.73 132.41 135.14 +10.7 +17.3 +28.3 +30.3 57 58 63 100.90 137.47 135.53 137.26 +11.8 +23.7 +26.5 +17.6 64 61 64 103.74 139.91 142.39 142.81 E>+28.9 +21.4 +34.5 +50.7 B)70 64 65 107.27 144.58 147.63 149.04 +16.9 +35.2 +36.8 +35.8 63 59 57 111.40 149.90 151.29 156.22 +13.5 +24.8 +47.7 +53.0 59 58 56 113.99 151.32 151.94 155.49 +8.7 +57.3 +53.1 +61.5 54 57 58 [H>116.22 [H>16O.52 159.38 156.39 +17.8 |H>+67.4 +39.4 +47.7 49 47 41 114.57 153.54 155.41 150.14 -19.2 +1.2 -10.8 -21.6 37 30 30 112.46 151.74 148.75 150.24 -31.0 -17.7 -31.6 -7.0 26 31 29 148.67 rl49.95 pl49.00 -4.8 all3.48 r-5.5 r+15.8 P+5.6 25 28 26.03 89.60 96.a 29.62 33.36 37.11 1974 January February March April May June , 39.84 44.2 E>50.01 49.79 1975 49.08 r47.64 P45.74 (NA) 37 (NA) 42 all3.70 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26,27,28,40, and 43. Series reaching high values before 1973 are as follows: Series 28, January 1972 (2,494); Series 29, December 1972 (208.5). 2 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board. 78 NOVEMBER 1975 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS LEADING INDICATORS-Con. LAGGING INDICATORS Inventory Investment and Purchasing-Con. Inventories TIMING CLASS . . . . Minor Economic Process Year and month [ ^ • P R I C E S , COSTS, AND PROFITS H B l N V E N T O R I E S A N D INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Con. 20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inventories of mtls. and supplies (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 25. Change in 32. Vendor performance, unfilled companies re- orders, durporting slower able goods industries deliveries ® 26. Prod, materials, companies reporting commitments 60 days or longer® (Percent reporting) (Percent reporting) (Bil.dol.) Sensitive ComStock Prices modity Prices * 7 1 . Manufac- 65. Mfrs.' inventories of turing and trade invento- finished goods, book ries, book value value (Bil.dol.) LEADING INDICATORS (Bil.dol.) *23.Index of industrial materials prices© *19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks® (1967=100) 1941-43=10) Profits and Profit Margins Corporate profits after taxes 16. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 18. Constant (1958) dollars (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 1973 78 84 +1.36 +1.64 +2.89 199.61 201.71 203.55 35.72 35.87 36.19 139.3 147.5 155.3 E>118.42 114.16 112.42 71.5 50.5 90 +2.80 +3.14 +3.67 204.98 207.34 209.87 36.08 36.45 36.84 158.2 162.9 170.1 110.27 107.22 104.75 74.0 51.4 +2.05 +3.09 +1.90 211.84 214.05 215.51 36.85 36.74 37.04 178.1 189.8 186.3 105.83 103.80 105.61 72.9 49.8 90 91 +2.42 +2.42 +1.56 217.30 220.17 224.40 37.12 37.33 37.95 188.1 192.4 208.9 109.84 102.03 94.78 73.2 49.1 H>91 85 88 +1.52 +2.20 +1.34 227.34 230.40 233.39 38.46 38.89 39.11 215.9 232.0 237.2 96.11 93.45 97.44 83.2 54.5 83 84 84 84 79 76 +2.89 +4.20 +4.07 235.46 239.43 243.85 39.35 39.76 40.39 E>238.4 226.2 227.5 92.46 89.67 89.79 83.1 52.9 , +12.6 +16.0 +13.5 July August September.., [H>+19.7 +17.9 +15.5 83 85 S3 72 68 52 +3.58 B>+4.64 248.63 253.05 258.18 41.34 42.09 43.41 228.2 224.2 214.7 82.82 76.03 68.12 E>94.3 E>58.2 October November . . , December . . . +9.5 +4.8 +19.2 82 73 69 46 32 22 -1.47 -1.57 -2.71 263.79 267.08 271.05 44.27 45.58 46.73 204.4 196.4 183.4 69.44 71.74 67.07 79.5 46.9 +8.4 +2.1 -6.1 64 64 18 16 17 -4.07 -2.63 -3.15 H> 271.15 270.25 268.45 47.60 47.70 0)47.73 180.1 181.1 182.3 72.56 80.10 83.78 62.3 35.9 April May June -12.2 -10.5 -8.2 57 54 56 22 24 26 -1.87 -0.76 -0.72 266.97 264.34 263.75 47.29 47.01 46.83 I86.4 184.2 173.2 84.72 90.10 92.40 70.3 40.0 July August September... -7.4 r-6.5 -2.2 53 58 30 36 44 +0.45 +0.20 r-1.05 263.34 r264.66 p265.13 46.41 r46.60 47.02 171.5 179.6 184.2 92.49 85.71 84.67 p82.2 P46.3 October November . . . December . . . (NA) 62 45 p-1.28 (NA) (NA) 181.9 U79.3 January February March +4.1 +5.3 +3.2 63 68 67 April May June +4.2 +5.3 +6.9 77 80 78 July August September... +7.6 +6.3 +7.0 83 90 October November . . . December . . . +7.9 +5.7 +13.1 87 84 87 +12.2 +11.8 +13.8 90 B>92 1974 January February March April May June , +1.39 1975 January February March 3 88.57 90.11 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by IB); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by |R). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28, 29,30,40,41, and 43. 1 Average for November 4, 11, and 18. IICII NOVEMBER 1975 2 Average for November .5, 12, and 19. 79 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS j ^ P R I C E S . COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con. TIMING CLASS . . . . Minor Economic Process Year and month LEADING INDICATORS-Con. Profits and Profit Margins-Con. 22. Ratio, profits to income orig. in corporate business 15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all mfg. corp. *17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index, mfg. (Percent) (Cents) (1967=100) Cash Flows ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS LAGGING INDICATORS Comprehensive Wholesale Prices Unit Labor Costs 58. Index of wholesale prices, mfd. goods@ 63.Index (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) 120.0 121.3 122.8 121.6 123.6 125.7 127.6 124.2 125.3 126.0 126.4 128.3 130.1 129.8 ... 6.9 ... .. • 34. Current dollars 55. Index of wholesale prices, 35. Constant industrial (1958) dol. commod.® (Ann. rate, bil.dol.L (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) Net cash flows, corporate Unit labor cost, total private economy 63c. Change over 1-Q spans (Ann. rate, percent) 68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross prod. (1958 dol.), corp. (Dollars) *62.Index of labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (1967=100) 1973 January February . . . . March 11.4 4.7 103.0 104.1 105.3 April May June 11.6 4.7 104.7 105.6 106.4 July August September 11.1 4-7 10.8 October November December 7.4 0.858 112.0 79.1 115.7 ... 80.5 ... 106.0 109.3 106.9 114.8 78.5 126.1 126.7 127.4 129.1 133.4 131.8 132.1 7.4 ... 5.7 106.3 107.5 108.6 115.5 78.1 128.5 130.1 132.2 132.0 132.8 135.1 134.7 8.0 ... 11.6 5.8 110.7 111.2 112.2 125.7 83-4 135.3 138.2 142.4 138.6 140.9 143.6 139.9 12.1 5.6 112.8 113.9 114.0 126.3 81.5 146.6 150.5 153.6 146.0 149.3 151.5 144.1 M/13-5 E)5.9 116.7 119.5 120.0 0)138.6 B)86.4 157.8 161.6 162.9 156.4 161.8 162.4 148.5 120.9 0)121.5 119.9 125.5 74.0 I64.8 165.8 166.1 165.2 166.2 166.9 153.6 117.5 116.2 113.7 109.6 ... 62.5 167.5 I68.4 168.9 168.2 168.0 167.8 .. . 0.870 ... 118.4 118.4 119.0 120.2 120.7 121.2 121.6 0.884 ... 122.4 123.3 0.905 ... 124.7 124.8 125.4 1974 January February March April May June .. . . July August September October November December . . . . 0.937 125.6 126.5 127.4 0.964 129.0 130.2 131.8 D16.4 12.6 ... 12.8 ... 0.993 ... 1.023 136.8 138.1 140.5 (H)l-043 144.0 144.5 147.3 1.034 147.8 148.6 148.4 pi.022 rl49.1 rl48.9 rl49.0 14.4 11.1 4.9 9.3 3.8 ... 10.2 4.4 113.9 113.4 113.6 119.3 67.1 169.7 170.3 170.7 168.7 169.5 170.1 D158.8 (NA) rll4.9 115.0 116.2 pl32*.9 p74*3 171.2 172.2 173.1 171.4 172.3 173.0 rl57.1 Dm- 7 H>174.5 134.0 134.6 135.5 1975 January February March April May June July August September October November . . December pll6.7 10.7 157.5 ... 3.2 r-4.1 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by H ) ; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by|H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30, 31,32,41, and 43. ^•Data beginning with the 4th quarter-1973 are not comparable with earlier data due to changes in the definition of profits and in the rules for consolidation. The figure for the 4th quarter 1973 on the old basis is 4.8. 80 NOVEMBER 1975 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q | MONEY AND CREDIT TIMING CLASS . . . . LEADING INDICATORS Minor Economic Process Year and month Credit Difficulties Flows of Money and Credit 85. Change in U.S. money supply (M1) (Ann. rate, percent) 102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks (M2) (Ann. rate, percent) 103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at banks and nonbank institutions (M3) (Ann. rate, percent) 33. Net change in mortgage debi held by financial institutions and life insurance companies1 2 (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 112. Net change in bank loans to businesses3 (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) *113. Net change in consumer installment debt (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 110. Total private borrowing (Ann. rate, mil, dot.) 14. Current liabilities of business failures @ 1 (Mil.dol.) 39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, consumer installment loans1 (Percent) 1973 +5.16 +4.67 +9.36 +7.02 +5.40 +10.65 +8.45 +6.99 +47.92 +49.33 +53.46 +23.70 +50.95 +41.00 +23.39 +23.96 H>+24.53 185,696 205.84 137.16 252.35 +6.51 +13.42 +13.72 +7.85 +12.03 +11.69 +8.20 +11.18 +11.76 +52.75 +53.51 +57.43 +26.14 +14.32 +13.07 +16.85 +23.89 +19.34 178,460 119.34 167.95 180.21 July August September... +3.62 -0.45 -1.35 +5.24 +6.96 +4.54 +5.96 +5.26 +4.43 +53.60 +52.30 +43.74 +22.94 +29.40 +6.02 +23.98 +22.74 +16.31 184,496 206.19 190.15 189.47 October November . . . December . . . +4.06 +12.60 +9.35 •+9.48 +11.97 +10.58 +8.42 +10.49 +10.27 +40.69 +39.76 +31.66 +3.13 +4.31 +17.00 *-20.40 +20.71 +4.92 161,928 185.66 218.67 245.62 -2.65 +9.75 +9.23 +6.92 +11.26 +9.50 +7.18 +9.47 +9.52 +36.94 +39.92 +41.93 +19.79 +1.04 +30.01 +11.00 +8.05 +7.40 157,208 337.28 213.13 204.59 2.54 +6.10 +4.34 +10.37 +7.99 +4.48 +11.16 +7.53 +3.68 +9.11 +48.34 +47.36 +39.54 E>+52.21 +20.42 +14.92 +13.84 +15.14 +13.03 ) 207,196 209.76 375.69 215.50 2.56 July August September... +1.71 +0.43 +0.86 +5.02 +4.60 +2.99 +4.77 +3.75 +2.99 +39.83 +31.58 +30.66 +44-54 +14.17 +21.02 +15.90 +18.14 +8.12 164,008 153.40 232.68 217.01 2.63 October November . . . December . . . +3.85 +8.52 +3.38 +8.35 +7.90 +3.73 +7.09 +7.66 +5.90 +29.34 +24.11 +16.52 +9.90 +21.42 +14.22 +4.82 -4.80 -9.77 142,872 306.83 344.66 242.59 2.80 -11.81 +3.41 +11.05 +2.54 +8.39 +11.63 +5.62 +9.86 +13.88 +25.07 +30.26 +28.99 -11.59 -39.71 -17.42 -4.81 +2.84 -5.24 r95,040 391.14 384.76 343.35 2.59 2.71 2.94 +3.37 +11.34 B> +18.72 +7.29 +13.36 H>+19.25 +11.69 +14.89 E> +19.84 +36.54 +39.47 +35.38 -22.73 -22.70 -18.34 -2.90 -1.50 +5.06 rlO7,432 372.08 357.79 175.92 2.74 2.65 2.63 +2.05 +2.86 r+2.04 +8.17 +5.90 +4.77 +12.17 +9-43 r+7.78 +40.72 +38.22 PU7.96 -7.32 -18.72 r+2.59 pl20,084 242.03 222.44 205.53 2.60 2.65 2.59 P+-4.02 +14.27 p+7.28 (NA) p+5.87 *+7.96 +10.43 +6.00 +12.68 (NA) (NA) (NA) January February March April May June 2.01 2.01 2.11 2.27 1974 January February March April May June ... 2.61 2.65 1975 January February March April May June July August September... October November . . . December . . . 4 p+2.85 +14.31 4 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by E ) ; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by 0 ) . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 33,34, and 4 1 . •"•Series reaching high values before 1973 are as follows: Series 33, December 1972 (+57.89); Series 14, December 1972 (86.79); Series 39, December 1971 (1.71). 2 Data include conventional mortgages held by GNMA. 3Data beginning October 1974 are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See October 1974 BCD, page iii. 4Average for weeks ended November 5 and 12. ItCI) NOVEMBER 1975 81 CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS I l l MONEY AND CREDIT-Con. TIMING CLASS . . . . Minor Economic Process ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS Bank Reserves 93. Free reserves © Year and month (Mil, dol.) LAGGING INDICATORS Interest Rates 119. Federal funds rate® 114. Treasury bill rate© (Percent) (Percent) Interest Rates Outstanding Debt 116. Cor 115. Treas- 117. Municporate bond ury bond ipal bond yields® yields® yields® 66. Consumer installment debt (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) (Mil, dol.) 5.96 *72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks1 (Mil, dol.) 109. Average prime rate charged by banks® *67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities ® 118. Mortgage yields, residential® (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 6.00 6.02 6.30 6.f>2 7.55 7.56 7.63 1973 January February March -823 -1,388 -1,563 5.94 6.58 7.09 5.31 5.56 6.05 7.61 7.67 7.75 6.14 6.20 5.05 5.13 5.29 126,388 128,385 130,429 April May June -1,564 -1,633 -1,653 7.12 7.84 8.49 6.29 6.35 7.19 7.70 7.69 7.73 6.11 6.25 6.32 5.15 5.14 5.18 131,833 133,824 135,436 103,726 104,919 106,008 6.60 7.01 7.49 7.35 7.73 7.79 7.89 July August September... -1,584 -1,734 -1,477 10.40 10.50 10.78 8.02 8.67 8.48 7.97 8.45 8.10 6.53 6.85 6.41 5.40 5.48 5.10 137,434 139,329 140,688 107,920 110,370 110,872 8.30 9.23 9.86 9.24 8.19 (NA) 9.18 October November . . . December . . . -1,141 -1,111 10.01 10.03 7.97 7.95 8.09 6.25 6.30 6.35 5.05 5.18 5.12 142,388 144,114 ihU, 524 111,133 111,492 112,909 9.94 9.75 9.75 10.08 8.97 8.86 8.78 93,885 98,131 101,548 -995 9.95 7.16 7.87 7.36 -790 -980 7.76 7.06 7.99 8.32 8.21 8.60 6.56 6.54 6.81 5.22 5.20 5.40 145,441 146,112 146,729 114,558 114,645 117,146 9.73 9.21 8.83 9.91 -1,444 9.65 8.97 9.35 8.54 8.66 -1,506 -2,282 -2,739 10.51 11.31 11.93 8.23 8.43 8.14 9.04 9.39 9.59 7.04 7.09 7.02 5.73 6.02 6.13 147,882 149,144 150,230 121,497 123,199 124,442 10.02 11.25 11.54 11.15 9.17 9.46 9.46 July August September.. -2,982 H>12.92 -3,008 12.01 -2,957 11.34 7.75 H>8.74 8.36 10.18 10.30 7.18 [H>7.33 7.30 6.68 6.71 6.76 151,555 153,067 153,744 128,154 129,335 130,988 11.98 12.00 H)l2.00 [H>12.40 10.30 October November .. December .. -1,585 -960 -332 10.06 9.45 8.35 7.24 7.58 7.18 10.29 9.22 9.47 7.22 6.93 6.77 6.57 6.61 7.05 154,146 153,746 152,932 131,813 133,598 [fi> 134,783 11.68 10.83 10.50 -441 7.13 6.24 5.54 6.49 5.58 5.54 9.17 8.84 9.48 6.68 6.66 6.77 6.82 6.39 6.74 152,531 152,768 152,331 133,817 130,508 129,056 10.05 8.96 7.93 9.94 8.84 8.69 5.69 5.32 5.19 9.81 9.76 9.27 7.05 7.01 6.86 6.95 6.97 6.95 152,089 151,964 152,386 127,162 125,270 123,742 7.50 7.41 7.08 8.16 (NA) 9.16 9.06 6.16 6.46 6.38 9.56 9.70 9.89 6.89 7.11 7.28 7.07 7.17 153,-255 153,755 |H>154,812 123,132 121,572 rl21,788 7.14 7.65 7.89 8.22 9.13 9.32 9.74 6.08 5.45 9.54 39.29 (NA) pl22,277 4 122,940 1974 January February March April May June , , (NA) 9.85 E>10.38 10.13 (NA) 11.64 9.51 1975 January February . . . March •+95 +167 April May June +288 5.49 5.22 5.55 July August September.. -276 +44 r-136 6.10 6.14 6.24 October November .. December .. a +17 -52 P+42 +322 8 5.82 5.22 3 3 7.29 7.19 (H>7.44 3 7.39 7.45 5 7.96 7.54 9.53 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by [ED; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by (H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these secies are shown on Daaes 35.36. and 43. *Data beginning with September 1974 are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See October 1974 BCD, page iii. 2Average for weeks ended November 5, 12, and 19. 3Average for weeks ended November 7, 14, and 21. 4Average for weeks ended November 5 and 12. 5Average for November 1 through 25. 82 NOVEMBER 1975 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing COMPOSITE INDEXES Year and month New index of 12 leading indicators, original trend (1967=100) New index of 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted1 New index of 4 coincident indicators (1967=100) (1967=100) New index of 6 lagging indicators (1967=100) Leading Indicator Subgroups 813. Marginal employment adjustments (series 1,2, 3,5) 814. Capital investment commitments (series 6,10, 12,29) 815. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 23, 25,31,37) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) 816. Profitability (series 16, 17,19) 817. Sensitive financial flows (series 33,85, 112,113) (1967=100) (1967=100) 8 Revised 1973 January February March 121.2 121.6 122.2 114.8 116.6 118.8 115.6 116.3 118.5 124.2 125.9 E>128.6 120.8 120.9 E>122.4 118.6 121.3 123.9 118.1 119.0 118.8 120.4 123.7 121.9 101.7 102.2 102.8 121.1 120.5 118.9 123.6 126.9 125.3 118.6 120.8 119.2 122.5 117.4 108.7 170.3 171.7 175.8 102.6 100.8 97.7 118.9 119.2 116.1 127.1 129.1 132.9 119.6 119.0 119.5 108.2 110.6 104.7 173.7 172.6 172.2 177.7 177.6 178.7 95.3 95.2 94.8 115.7 116.6 117.3 132.1 135.2 134.6 122.8 123.7 125.6 106.9 109.6 115.8 163.4 163.0 160.0 171.8 172.5 171.6 184.0 189.4 192.3 95.6 95.6 96.1 118.3 118.4 117.4 135.3 137.3 138.0 124.8 125.0 126.4 123.1 121.0 116.1 112.9 108.8 104.3 159.1 153.5 147.7 172.4 171.9 171.0 195.5 196.7 198.3 95.8 94.3 92.3 118.8 115.9 113.3 137.8 0)138.0 134.4 128.0 D129.4 125.4 115.8 113.7 105.5 100.2 97.1 95.0 142.5 138.7 136.3 169.0 162.8 156.4 199.5 198.9 [H)199.5 89.0 85.7 83.9 109.5 108.3 108.8 129.2 124.1 120.7 124.9 124.4 119.4 106.2 101.1 92.8 January February March r91.6 r91.0 r91.8 131.9 131.5 133.3 152.5 149.7 147.0 198.9 192.4 190.3 82.5 81.9 82.5 104.1 104.1 103.9 113.3 112.2 110.9 117.1 115.9 116.1 89.1 90.5 88.7 April May June r94.6 r96.6 r99.7 138.0 141.5 146.6 147.6 148.8 149.5 185.5 181.7 174.9 83.9 84.0 85.7 107.6 109.0 111.3 112.1 112.4 112.5 117.7 119.8 rl22.1 94.0 96.2 99.1 July August September... 102.0 rlO2.6 102.5 150.5 152.1 152.5 151.4 154.6 156.9 175.6 174.8 174.0 r88.8 r89.3 P 88.6 113.8 rll4.2 112.4 116.6 r-117.1 1-124.8 rl24.5 1-125.5 October November . . . December . . . 3 158.8 pl76.2 (NA) pll3.8 P 117.4 pl27.8 101.3 r98.8 plO5.1 (NA) 125.0 125.7 124.5 164.5 166.0 164.8 163.4 166.5 168.0 140.8 144.4 147.5 124.1 124.9 B>126.6 164.3 166.3 B>169.7 168.2 169.6 170.3 151.3 154.2 158.1 July August September.., 126.5 123.9 122.3 168.8 166.1 165.3 173.0 172.7 174-4 162. 166. 169.3 October November . . . December . . . 122.4 121.7 119.8 165.8 166.6 164.8 176.4 H)178.2 175.6 January February March 117.5 117.7 119.6 162.5 163.2 166.0 April May June 117.4 116.5 113.7 July August September... October November . . , December . . , April May June 102.2 102.5 103.2 0>1O3. 103. 102. 1974 1975 102.0 3 152.4 4 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by G ) ; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by E > . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 37 and 38. 1 Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the new index of 4 coincident indicators. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. Excludes series X170D for which data are not yet available. 4 Excludes series 56D for which data are not yet available. 3 3 The old index of 12 leading indicators is shown in appendix G. ItCII NOVEMBER 1975 83 ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS Q | Year and quarter AGGREGATE SERIES 61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries a. Actual expenditures (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) b. Second anticipations as percent of actual c. First anticipations as percent of actual (Percent) (Percent) 414. Condition of manufacturers' inventories: percent considered high less percent considered low 412. Manufacturers' inventories, total book value 410. Manufacturers' sales, total value (Percent) (Bil.dol.) (Bil.dol.) 1972 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 86.79 87.12 87.67 91.94 100.9 104.1 103.1 100.5 100.4 102.3 102.3 99.9 177.6 182.7 187.0 196.9 103.0 104.3 106.2 107.7 12 10 11 10 96.19 97.76 100.90 103.74 100.6 100.8 101.0 101.2 100.5 102.4 100.9 100.6 206.2 211.4 215.1 224.6 110.2 113.0 116.1 120.9 9 11 12 13 107.27 111.40 113.99 116.22 99.9 99.3 99.1 98.4 100.8 98.7 99.3 99.8 232.4 242.1 255.0 252.8 126.5 133.5 143.0 150.4 18 22 23 31 114-57 112.46 all3.48 all3.70 98.8 100.8 (NA) 103.0 101.2 (NA) 236.0 240.5 a26l.O a271.2 151.2 148.1 al46.2 al44.3 30 24 (NA) 1973 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1974 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1975 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter H | Year and quarter B 9 AGGREGATE SERIES-Con. 416. Adequacy of mfrs.' capacity: percent considered inadequate less percent considered excessive (Percent) D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries 435. Index of consumer sentiment ® b. Second anticipations a. Actual expenditures (First quarter 1966=100) DIFFUSION INDEXES (1-Qspan) D440. New orders, manufacturing1 (u) c. First anticipations (1-Qspan) Anticipated Actual (1-Qspan) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 1972 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 24 26 31 35 87.5 89.3 94.0 90.8 44.4 50.0 55.6 83.3 77.8 63.9 88.9 75.0 75.0 44.4 47.2 50.0 82 84 86 84 82 86 88 88 a 45 48 51 80.8 76.0 71.8 75.7 83.3 61.1 83.3 66.7 77.8 77.8 72.2 75.0 86.1 63.9 61.1 72.2 88 90 88 86 88 90 88 87 51 49 45 32 60.9 72.0 64.5 58.4 77.8 86.1 61.1 63.9 72.2 77.8 61.1 55.6 75.0 86.1 69.4 61.1 84 82 74 59 86 80 85 80 22 21 (NA) 58.0 72.9 38.9 44.4 (NA) 36.1 41.7 50.0 66.7 52.8 66.7 61.1 50 54 (NA) 72 59 70 73 1973 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1974 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1975 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 75.8 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44,45, and 46. 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 84 NOVEMBER 1975 ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS Q [ Year and quarter D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade1 ® Anticipated Actual DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con. D446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade1 ® D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade1 @ Actual Actual Anticipated Anticipated D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade1 ® Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 74 76 79 80 76 82 84 83 82 82 85 86 83 88 90 88 56 58 62 60 58 60 61 60 64 66 72 71 61 66 66 66 78 79 76 76 82 85 84 80 86 89 86 85 88 90 90 88 63 62 60 60 60 63 62 60 73 76 75 76 69 72 72 70 74 76 71 63 80 74 79 77 82 84 80 70 86 78 86 82 58 59 56 49 61 56 60 58 78 79 78 69 70 67 72 72 52 53 (NA) 68 58 66 67 57 58 (NA) 75 62 73 71 44 44 (NA) 53 48 54 54 58 52 (NA) 64 54 50 54 1972 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1973 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1974 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1975 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 0 1 DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con. Selling prices Year and quarter D460. Manufacturing and trade1 ® Actual D462. Manufacturing1 ® Anticipated (4-Q span) Actual (4-Q span) Anticipated (4-Q span) D464. Wholesale trade1 © Actual (4-Q span) Anticipated D466. Retail trade1 ® Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 1972 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 74 76 76 78 68 74 75 72 70 72 72 74 68 72 72 70 80 81 82 80 70 78 80 74 73 78 79 81 67 74 74 74 86 86 90 92 76 82 85 83 82 84 86 90 73 80 83 82 90 89 92 96 80 86 88 84 90 87 93 93 76 85 88 83 94 96 94 90 87 90 92 91 92 96 94 89 86 89 92 90 96 96 94 91 88 94 92 91 92 97 96 92 87 89 92 93 80 80 (NA) 87 76 69 76 81 78 (NA) 86 76 68 74 80 79 (NA) 87 74 70 76 80 84 (NA) 88 75 72 79 1973 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1974 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 1975 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47 1 T M s is a copyrignted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from "Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. NOVEMBER 1975 85 OTHER KEY INDICATORS FOREIGN TRADE Year and month 500. Merchandise trade balance (series 502 minus series 512) (Mil. dof.) 502. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (Mil.dol.) 506. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except motor vehicles and parts (Mil.dol.) 508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery (1967=100) 512. General imports, total (Mil.dol.) 1973 January February March -289 -413 -102 4,955 5,070 5,311 2,304 2,248 2,307 164 172 184 5,244 5,483 5,414 April May June +133 -142 -47 5,494 5,561 5,728 2,111 2,258 2,109 193 184 207 5,360 5,703 5,775 July August September... +37 +32 +776 5,865 6,04-2 6,420 2,228 2,853 2,104 189 192 194 5,829 6,010 5,644 October November . . . December . . . +589 +194 +658 6,585 6,879 6,949 2,633 2,291 2,665 195 205 191 5,996 6,684 6,291 January February March +652 +231 -116 7,150 7,549 7,625 2,828 2,872 3,115 213 216 205 7,318 7,742 April May June +82 -612 -260 8,108 7,652 8,317 3,375 3,520 2,960 219 206 210 8,025 8,264 8,577 July August September.. -615 -888 -297 8,307 8,379 8,399 2,900 3,204 3,327 211 219 215 8,922 9,267 8,696 October November . . December . . -100 0 -395 8,673 8,973 8,862 3,565 3,264 3,305 207 190 178 8,773 8,973 9,257 January February . . . March -210 +917 +1,380 9,412 8,789 8,716 3,295 3,166 3,647 187 172 178 9,622 7,872 7,336 April May June +557 +1,052 +1,737 8,570 8,145 8,692 3,193 3,446 3,531 194 191 197 8,013 7,093 6,954 July August September.. +977 +1,035 +976 8,885 8,996 9,165 3,338 P3,288 214 r225 p210 7,908 7,961 8,189 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 1974 , 1975 October November . . December . . 3,479 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. 86 NOVEMBER 1975 OTHER KEY INDICATORS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS Year and quarter 250. Balance on goods and services (Mil. dol.) 515. Balance on goods, services, and remittances (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 530. Liquid liabilities to all foreigners1 2 ® 522. Official reserve transactions balance 521. Net liquidity balance 519. Balance on current account and long-term capital 517. Balance on current account 1972 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter -1,786 -1,657 -1,245 -1,243 -2,187 -2,050 -1,625 -1,674 -2,773 -2,608 -2,198 -2,131 -3,953 -2,338 -2,966 -1,855 -3,460 -2,287 -4,570 -3,511 -3,563 -624 -4,681 -1,485 66,925 69,880 75,498 78,679 -361 166 1,553 2,820 -755 -228 1,147 -1,116 -849 653 1,647 -1,393 -1,085 1,917 -419 -6,811 -1,719 1,826 -950 -10,629 551 2,318 2,449 85,361 86,279 86,576 87,572 2,992 78 -235 989 2,622 -379 -692 550 26 -1,787 -1,500 1,701 -2,302 -3,574 -6,513 -1,200 -6,218 -3,910 -7,717 551 -4,198 118 -4,847 91,154 98,865 105,439 112,885 3,178 P5,259 (NA) 2,230 p4,784 (NA) -673 pi, 611 (NA) 3,108 rpl,104 e289 -3,267 -1,616 p4,923 116,983 rllg,197 (NA) 1973 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter i . Fourth quarter 1974 First quarter ., Second quarter Third quarter., Fourth quarter -99 1975 First quarter . Second quarter Third quarter. Fourth quarter 2,003 P4,06l (NA) BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con. Year and quarter 532. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign official agencies1© (Mil. dol.) 534. U.S. official reserve assets3© Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants Goods and services 252. Exports (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 253. Imports (Mil. dol.) Merchandise, adjusted 536. Exports 537. Imports (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) Income on investment, military transactions, other services 540. Exports (Mil. dol.) 541. Imports (Mil. dol.) 1972 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 53,806 54,604 60,075 61,526 12,270 13,339 13,217 13,151 17,247 17,275 18,349 19,729 19,033 18,932 19,594 20,972 11,798 11,699 12,496 13,395 13,489 13,296 14,027 14,985 5,449 5,576 5,853 6,334 5,544 5,636 5,567 5,987 71,336 70,701 69,777 66,827 12,931 12,914 12,927 14,378 22,329 24,144 26,282 29,298 22,690 23,978 24,729 26,478 15,423 16,958 18,451 20,547 16,334 17,189 17,737 19,164 6,906 7,186 7,831 8,751 6,356 6,789 6,992 7,314 65,631 70,043 72,730 76,658 14,588 14,946 15,893 15,883 33,337 35,510 37,187 38,413 30,345 35,432 37,422 37,424 22,464 24,218 25,034 26,593 22,587 25,677 27,349 27,973 10,873 11,292 12,153 11,820 7,758 9,755 10,073 9,451 79,210 16,256 16,242 16,291 37,097 p35,4l8 (NA) 33,919 P3O,159 (NA) 27,188 p25,694 P26,899 25,358 p22,349 P24,6l8 9,909 P9,724 8,561 p7,8lO (NA) 1973 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 1974 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 1975 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter D80,468 (NA) (NA) NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown onpages 49. 50. and 51. i ^ ^ t outstanding at end of quarter. 2 See (2) on page BS. ^Reserve p o s i t i o n of quarter. 4Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports). ItCII NOVEMBER 1975 at 87 end OTHER KEY INDICATORS BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con. Year and quarter Income on Investments, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541) 544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S. (Mil.dol.) 543. Foreign investments in the U.S. (Mil.dol.) 542. U.S. investments abroad (Mil.dol.) Transportation and other services Military transactions Travel Income on investments 545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad (Mil.dol.) 549. Payments 548. Receipts from 547. Military expenditures abroad ® (Mil.dol.) 546. Sales under military contracts (Mil.dol.) for (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) 1972 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 2,274 2,387 2,595 2,905 1,364 1,403 1,462 1,612 673 695 713 736 1,232 1,231 1,250 1,329 332 281 255 295 1,222 1,272 1,105 1,185 2,170 2,213 2,290 2,398 1,726 1,730 1,750 1,861 3,123 3,3043,576 3,995 1,799 2,096 2,413 2,511 836 817 860 899 1,338 1,394 1,375 1,419 347 455 531 1,009 1,174 1,236 1,072 1,177 2,600 2,610 2,864 2,848 2,045 2,063 2,132 2,207 6,129 6,447 7,054 6,433 2,884 4,483 4,700 3,879 997 955 1,016 1,064 1,463 1,476 1,455 1,579 663 678 766 837 1,166 1,324 1,279 1,335 3,084 3,212 3,317 3,481 2,245 2,472 4,304 p4,445 (NA) 3,128 1,229 pl,120 (NA) 1,616 pl,459 (NA) 954 P 2,8l6 P 804 1,303 pi,216 (NA) P 3,355 1973 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 1974 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter 2,639 2,658 1975 First quarter . . Second quarter Third quarter.. Fourth quarter (NA) (NA) 2,514 3,422 P 2,319 (NA) (NA) BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con. Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers Year and quarter Securities investments Direct investments 560. Foreign investments in the U.S. 561. U.S. investments abroad (Mil. dol.) (Mil.dol.) 564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities 565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) (Mil.dol.) 575. Banking and other capital transactions, net 570. Government grants and capital transactions, net 1972 First quarter . Second quarter Third quarter. Fourth quarter -221 216 156 229 1,121 335 1,315 760 1,059 961 718 1,769 476 318 -203 28 -747 -837 -993 -1,311 -923 365 -1,121 -1,518 371 583 990 711 2,065 1,025 539 1,339 1,718 489 1,173 675 -30 111 216 462 -910 -571 -1,567 -1,551 -2,096 -580 -152 -3,050 1,177 1,700 -1 -653 745 1,572 1,828 3,310 692 440 204 -663 646 313 304 726 -1,294 -670 -930 -1,487 -7,019 -7,616 -1,783 -3,870 340 p623 (NA) 1,041 p2,001 (NA) 650 p678 (NA) 2,031 pi,001 (NA) -1,407 p-1,286 (NA) -2,133 p-3,463 (NA) 1973 First quarter . Second quarter Third quarter. Fourth quarter 1974 First quarter . Second quarter Third quarter. Fourth quarter 1975 First quarter . Second quarter Third quarter. Fourth quarter NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53. 2 Beginning with the 1st quarter 1975, data include nonmarketable nonconvertible U.S. Treasury bonds and notes which are not included prior to this date. On the old basis, the figure for the 1st quarter 1975 is $113,143 million. NOVEMBER 1975 ItCII OTHER KEY INDICATORS FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Defense Indicators Receipts and Expenditures Year and month 601. Federal receipts, national income and product accounts 600. Federal surplus (+) or deficit (-), national income and product accounts (Ana. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 264. National defense purchases (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) 616. Defense Department obligations, total, excluding military assistance (Mil.dol.) 621. Defense Department obligations, procurement 648. New orders, defense products (Mil.dol.) (Bil.dol.) 625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and institutions (Mil.dol.) 1973 -11.2 249.1 260.2 75.0 6,840 7,337 7,361 1,631 1,838 1,704 1.62 1.63 1.80 2,824 2,899 2,947 April May June -7.4 255.0 262.4 74.0 6,739 7,269 7,069 1,349 1,730 1,633 1.90 1.79 1.96 2,568 3,171 2,897 July August September.. -1.7 261.8 263.4 73.3 7,203 7,039 6,260 1,483 1,676 1,099 1.18 1.90 1.34 2,106 3,276 3,222 October . . . . November . . December . . -2.3 268.3 270.6 75.3 7,671 7,443 6,794 1,788 1,771 1,149 1.83 2.12 1.45 3,176 3,515 2,850 r\ •O 278.1 281.0 75.8 7,527 7,348 7,186 2,077 1,708 1,642 2.18 2.06 1.46 3,3^8 3,141 2^677 -3.0 288.6 291.6 76.6 7,883 7,302 7,663 2,040 1,330 1,412 1.53 2.08 1.75 4,343 2,881 3,440 -1.9 302.8 304.7 78.4 8,177 8,199 7,781 1,919 1,692 M42 1.38 3.23 1.68 3,494 4,153 3,502 -24.5 294.7 319.3 84.O 7,603 8,138 8,228 1,446 2,349 1,431 1.40 2.35 1.67 4,161 3,777 2,532 -54.4- 284.1 338.5 84.7 7,-609 7,508 8,223 1,509 2,349 -103.3 251.8 355.0 84.8 7,95.2 8,235 8,450 1,425 1,850 1,642 p-67.1 P295.7 r362.7 r86.1 8,718 9,077 7,791 (NA) 2,074 2,821 1,535 (NA) January February March 1974 January February . . . March 2 April May June July August September.. October November . . December . . 1975 January February March April May June , July August September.. October November . . , December . . , 1,424 2.15 1.70 1.64 1.66 1.91 1.82 2.05 rl.99 3,693 3,987 2,817 4,122 3,926 3,773 3,842 5,299 (NA) pl.15 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55. ItCII NOVEMBER 1975 89 OTHER KEY INDICATORS I ^ P R I C E MOVEMENTS Fixed weighted price index, gross private product Year and month 211. Index Consumer price indexes 211c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 781. Index© (1958=100) (Ann. rate, percent) 782. Food All items (1967=100) 781c. Change over 1-month spans1 (Percent) 783. Commodities less food 784. Services© (1967=100) 781c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) (1967=100) (1967=100) 1973 January February March 145.1 April May June 148.0 7.4 127.7 128.6 129.8 0.5 0.6 0.8 6.8 7.3 7.9 129.2 131.0 134.0 121.0 121.4 121.9 135.7 136.2 136.6 8.1 130.7 131.5 132.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 7.5 10.0 8.7 136.2 137.9 139.8 122.4 122.8 123.3 137.1 137.6 138.1 8.4 132.7 135.1 135.5 0.3 1.7 0.3 8.9 9.6 9.7 139.9 148.8 148.0 123.5 123.9 124.2 138.4 139.3 140.6 136.6 137.6 138.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 11.4 10.0 11.7 149.0 150.9 152.1 125.0 125.9 126.8 142.2 143.0 143.8 139.7 141.5 143.1 1.1 1.1 11.3 11.8 12.3 154.6 157.4 158.2 128.4 129.8 131.5 144.8 143.9 145.5 146.9 0.7 1.0 11.8 11.8 12.1 158.3 159.7 160.3 132.9 134.2 135.8 148.0 149.5 150.9 12.7 12.5 12.2 159.4 162.2 I64.8 137.5 139.3 140.8 152.6 154.2 156.0 ... . July August September 151.0 ... October November December 9.1 154.4 1974 January February March 159.5 April May June 164.2 July August September 169.6 October November December 174.7 U.I 12.2 13.8 148.0 149.9 151.7 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.2 145.9 147.1 153.0 154.3 155.4 0.9 0.9 0.8 11.7 10.4 8.5 166.9 168.8 170.4 141.8 142.9 143.8 157.3 158.7 160.1 7.7 156.1 157.2 157.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 7.8 6.6 6.6 171.9 171.4 170.3 144.5 145.6 146.4 161.3 162.6 163.2 5.5 158.6 159.3 160.6 0.6 0.4 0.8 7.6 6.8 170.9 171.8 174.4 147.5 147.8 148.5 I64.I 164.5 165.7 162.3 162.8 163.6 1.2 0.2 0.5 7.4 177.4 177.4 177.6 149.9 150.7 151.2 166.6 167.4 169.1 164.6 0.7 179.9 151.7 170.1 12.6 1975 January February March 178.0 April May June 180.4 July August September . . . . r7.3 rl83.6 . . October November December 7.2 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 56. •'•Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-quarter changes are placed on 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. 90 NOVEMBER 1975 Ittlt OTHER KEY INDICATORS PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con. Wholesale price indexes Year and month 750. All commodities® 58. Manufactured goods® 751. Processed foods and feeds 752. Farm products Industrial commodities 55. I n d e x ® (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) 55c. Change over 1-month spans1 (Percent) 55c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 1973 January February March 124.5 126.9 129.8 121.6 123.6 125.7 131.7 135.5 140.4 143.3 147.5 158.1 120.0 121.3 122.8 0.2 0.9 1.1 8.0 8.6 9.3 April May June 130.5 133.2 136.0 126.4 128.3 130.1 141.5 145.9 150.7 161.7 170.2 178.4 124.2 125.3 126.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 9.4 8.6 7.8 July August September... 134.3 142.1 139.7 129.1 133.4 131.8 145.5 3 64.9 1.56.3 172.1 211.8 201 < 8 126.1 126.7 127.4 0.2 0.6 0.7 8.4 10.0 12.3 October November . . . December . . . 138.7 139.2 141.8 132.0 132.8 135.1 154.5 154.8 155.7 193.6 189.9 189.9 128.5 130.1 132.2 1.1 1.5 1.8 16.5 19.8 24.9 January February March 146.6 149.5 151.4 138.6 140.9 143.6 161.1 162.6 161.5 200.6 200.4 193.5 135.3 138.2 142.4 2.0 2.0 2.8 28, 31- April May June 152.7 155.0 155.7 146.0 149.3 151.5 I61.4 160.0 156.0 187.9 180.8 164.5 146.6 150.5 153.6 2.6 2.5 2.2 34.4 35.6 30.8 July August September... 161.7 167.4 167.2 156.4 161.8 162.4 166.9 177.9 177.0 180.8 186.8 I84.4 157.8 161.6 162.9 2.9 2.5 1.0 27.9 23.8 19.5 October November . . . December . . . 170.2 171.9 171.5 165.2 166.2 166.9 185.0 193.8 188.2 193.1 194.0 186.1 I64.8 165.8 166.1 1.5 0.8 0.4 14.0 9.5 7.6 January February March 171.8 171.3 170.4 168.2 168.0 167.8 185.3 180.3 175.7 177.9 170.2 168.1 167, 168. 168.9 0.5 0.4 0.1 4.7 3.4 3-4 April May June 172.1 173.2 173.7 168.7 169.5 170.1 181.9 180.3 178.1 179.3 184.5 181.7 169.7 170.3 170.7 0.1 0.2 0.4 3.2 3.7 5.0 July August September... 175.7 176.7 177.7 171.4 172.3 173.0 183.9 184.5 186.3 193.7 190.7 198.9 171.2 172.2 173.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 7.3 October November . . . December . . . 178.9 174.5 187.7 203.2 174.7 1.2 1974 32.2 1975 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 57. 1 Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month percent changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month percent changes are placed on the 4th month. ItCII NOVEMBER 1975 91 OTHER KEY INDICATORS WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adj.1 Year and month Real earnings Current dollar earnings 740.Index (1967=100) 740c. Change over 1-month spans2 (Percent) 740c. Change over 6-month spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) 741.Index (1967=100) 741c. Change over 1-month spans2 (Percent) 741c. Change over 6-month spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) 859. Real spendable avg. weekly earnings of nonagri. prod, or nonsupv. workers (1967 dol.) Average hourly compensation, all employees, private nonfarm economy Current dollar compensation 745. Index (1967=100) 745c. Change over 1-quarter spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) 745c. Change over 4-quarter spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) 1973 January February March 142.3 142.7 143.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 6.4 6.1 6.1 111.2 110.8 110.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -1.1 -1.7 96.42 96.76 96.40 144.9 April May June 144.6 145.0 6 0.9 0.3 0.7 6.6 7.2 7.7 110.6 110.3 110.4 0.2 -0.3 0.1 -0.8 -2.6 -0.9 96.34 95.83 95.89 147.0 July August September... 147.0 147.7 148.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 6.9 7.5 7.3 110.8 109.4 109.9 0.4 -1.3 0.5 -1.9 -1.9 -2.2 96.23 94.78 95.18 149-5 October November . . . December . . . 149.5 150.3 151.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 6.7 7.0 7.0 109.5 109.2 109.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 -4.2 -2.8 -4.3 94.58 94-66 94.22 152.4 January February March 151.8 152.8 153.9 0.4 0.7 0.7 7.0 8.5 9.8 108.4 107.9 107.5 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -3.9 -2.9 -2.2 92.94 92.75 91.99 155.3 April May June 154.7 156.5 158.5 0.5 1.2 1.3 9.9 10.4 10.9 107.4 107.6 107.9 -0.1 0.2 0.3 -1.7 -1.2 -1.1 90.91 91.62 91.34 159.6 July August September.., 159.2 160.6 162.0 0.4 0.9 0.9 11.5 10.0 9.0 107.5 107.2 107.0 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -1.0 -2.2 -2.9 91.37 90.68 90.16 163.5 October November . . December . . 163.3 164.2 165.4 0.8 0.6 0.7 9.1 9.2 8.9 106.8 106.4 106.4 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 -2.3 -1.1 0.4 89.91 88.61 88.67 167.3 January February . . . March 166.3 167.8 169.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 7.6 8.0 8.4 106.3 106.6 107.2 -0.1 0.3 0.6 -0.2 1.3 1.7 88.43 88.08 87.93 170.8 April May 169.4 170.6 172.2 0.2 0.7 0.9 106.8 107.1 107.3 -0.4 0.3 0.2 0.7 rl.4 rO.l 87.58 91.67 91.53 173.9 July August September.. 173.1 rl74.6 rl75.1 0.5 r0.9 rO.3 8.4 r8.3 r7.3 p8.8 106.6 rlO7.4 rlO7.2 -0.7 rO.8 r-0.2 pl.4 91.01 r91.82 r91.70 rl77.2 October November . . December . . P176.8 pl.O P1O7.5 pO.3 10.2 7.4 5.9 1 .o 7.0 7.2 8.0 8.6 1974 7.8 9,4 11.5 9.8 10.1 10.0 9.6 8,9 1975 June 8.6 r8.4 7.4 r8.0 p91.66 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59. 1 Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. 2 92 NOVEMBER 1975 OTHER KEY INDICATORS WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con. Average hourly compensation, all employees, private nonfarm economy-Con. Year and month 748. First year average changes Real compensation 746. Index (1967=100) 746c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 746c. Change over 4-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) Output per man-hour, total private economy Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries© (Ann. rate, percent) 749. Average changes over life of contract (Ann. rate, percent) 770.Index (1967=100) 858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm 770c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 770c. Change over 4-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) (1967=100) •1.8 113.9 0.5 113.4 -2.7 113.4 -2.2 113.2 -2.3 111.2 -3.7 110.7 -1.8 110.1 -0.8 109.1 r2.2 108.4 1973 3.S January . February March . . 112.5 April May. June 111.7 July August September. 111.3 October.. November December 110.8 7.1 -2.5 115.5 7.8 114.9 7.2 6.3 -1.1 114.6 -2.5 6.1 -1.6 -1.9 6.7 -0.6 -1.7 4.6 5.6 0.5 5.6 0.7 114.8 -1.8 1974 -3.9 January . February March . . , 109.7 April May. June 109.7 July August September. 109.2 October.. November December 108.5 6.9 6.2 -8.4 112.3 0.1 9.2 7.7 -2.1 11.9 -2.0 8.0 -1.5 112.0 -1.0 -2.6 0.3 112.4 U.6 8 17 -0.7 -5.1 110.5 1975 0.7 January . . February . March . . . 108,. 6 April May . June 109.0 July August September. 1.3 rlO8.9 P13.0 P7.5 r-0.4 -0.6 110.3 r-0.3 P9.3 pll.4 P 7.7 4.2 111.5 p8.6 109.9 rll.O rll4.4 rll2.8 October.. November December NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59. ^•Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. ItCII NOVEMBER 1975 93 OTHER KEY INDICATORS CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS Unemployment rates Civilian labor force Year and month 841. Total (Thous.) 842. Employed (Thous.) 843. Unemployed 844. Males 20 years and over (Thous.) (Percent) 845. Females 20 years and over (Percent) 846. Both sexes 16-19 years of age (Percent) 847. White (Percent) 848. Negro and other races (Percent) 1973 January February March 86,964. 87,703 88,043 82,633 83,276 83,686 4,331 4,427 4,357 3.4 3.4 3.4 5.2 4.9 4.9 14.3 15.4 14.2 4.5 4.5 4.4 9.0 8.9 April May June 88,296 88,325 88,791 83,877 84,021 84,487 4,419 4,304 4,304 3.3 3.3 3.2 4.8 4.6 4.9 15.3 15.0 14.0 4.4 4.4 4.3 9.3 9.1 8.9 July August September... 88,902 88,816 89,223 84,679 84,582 84,983 4,223 4,234 4,240 3.1 3.1 3.1 4.8 4.9 4.8 14.3 14.3 14.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 9.2 8.9 9.3 October November . . . December . . . 89,568 89,852 90,048 85,452 85,577 85,646 4,116 4,275 4,402 3.0 3.1 3.2 4.5 4.7 5.0 14.1 14.6 14.4 4.1 4.2 4.4 8.4 8.8 8.4 January February March 90,465 90,551 90,381 85,800 85,861 85,779 4,665 4,690 4,602 3.4 3.5 3.4 5.1 5.1 5.0 15.5 15.0 15.0 4.7 4.6 4.6 9.2 9.2 9.2 April May June 90,324 90,753 90,857 85,787 86,062 4,537 4,691 4,769 3.5 3.4 3.5 5.0 5.1 5.1 14.0 15.6 15.8 4.5 4.7 4.8 B.B 9.3 9.0 July August September.. 91,283 91,199 91,705 86,403 86,274 86,402 4,880 4,925 5,303 3.6 3.S 3.9 5.2 5.3 5.7 16.2 15.3 16.7 4.8 4.9 5.3 9.4 9.4 9.9 October 91,844 91,708 91,803 86,304 85,689 85,202 5,540 6,019 6,601 4.3 4.6 5.3 5.6 6.6 7.2 17.1 17.4 18.1 5.5 5.9 6.4 10.9 11.6 12.5 January February . . . March 92,091 91,511 91,829 84,562 84,027 83,849 7,529 7,484 7,980 6.0 6.2 6.8 8.1 8.1 8.5 20.8 19.9 20.6 7.5 7.4 8.0 13.4 13.5 14.2 April May June 92,262 92,940 92,340 8,176 8,538 7,896 7.0 7.3 7.0 8.6 8.1 20.4 21.8 19.2 8.1 8.5 7.9 July August September.. 92,916 93,146 93,191 84,086 84,402 84,444 85,078 85,352 85,418 7,838 7,794 7,773 7.0 6.6 7.0 7.9 7.7 7.5 19.1 21.1 7.9 7.6 7.6 14.6 14.7 13.7 13.0 14.0 14.3 93,443 85,441 8,002 7.1 7.8 7.9 14.2 1974 November . . December . . 1975 October.... November . . December . . 19.3 19.9 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 60. 94 NOVEMBER 1975 ItCII ANALYTICAL MEASURES H H ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars Year and quarter 207. GNP gap (potential less actual) 206. Potential GNP 205. Actual GNP (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1972 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 770.9 786.6 798.1 814.2 806.8 814.7 822.8 830.9 +35.9 +28.1 +24.7 +16.7 832.8 837.4 840.8 84-5.7 839.1 847.3 855.7 864.1 +6.3 +9.9 +14.9 +18.4 830.5 872.6 881.2 889.9 898.7 +42.1 827d 823.1 804.0 780.0 783.6 r808.3 907.6 916.5 925.5 +127.6 1973 First quarter Second quarter , Third quarter Fourth quarter 1974 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter +54.1 +66.8 +94.7 1975 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter +132.9 r+117.2 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 61. Special Note on Potential GNP The following note has been provided by the Council of Economic Advisers regarding potential GNP. The idea of potential GNP has had a long history. Its measurement by the Council of Economic Advisers was started in the Economic Report of the Council in 1962. Since that time, it has been used as a standard with which to evaluate the past and future behavior of the economy. Potential GNP purports to measure what the economy would produce if all of its resources were fully utilized given the technology and institutional arrangements that have existed at the time. "Fully utilized" has never meant the kind of utilization that would prevail, say, under wartime conditions but rather the utilization that could be expected under conditions ot reasonable price stability. This nas always Deen less than complete utilization. Under ordinary circumstances, some unemployment is present because some workers are in the process of changing jobs; similarly, some old plants are idle because market conditions do not permit them to operate profitably. In the past, this degree of utilization has been reflected in an overall unemployment rate of 4 percent. The rate of inflation associated with that degree of unemployment has typically not been specified. Furthermore, notions of what constitutes reasonable price stability can vary over time. Potential GNP is not something ordinarily observable. In practice, the Bill NOVEMBER 1975 Council in 1962 made the judgment that the economy was operating at 1UU percent of potential in mid-1955. Since that time potential GNP has been estimated to grow at differing annual rates, as follows: 3.5 percent from the first quarter of 1952 to the fourth quarter of 1962, 3.75 percent from the fourth quarter of 1962 to the fourth quarter of 1965, 4 percent from the fourth quarter of 1965 to the fourth quarter of 1969. At the beginning of 1970, the Council estimated that after the fourth quarter of 1969 potential was growing at an annual rate of 4.3 percent, reflecting a rise of 1.8 percent in the potential labor force, a 0.2 percent decline in annual hours of work, and a 2.7 percent rise in output per manhour at potential. Drawing on a new study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("The United States Economy in 1985", Monthly Labor Review, December 1973), the Council has lowered its estimate of potential growth after 1969 to 4 percent per annum, reflecting :he following component changes: labor force, 1.8 percent; annual hours, —0.3 percent; output per manhour, 2.5 percent. Although potential is presented in the chart on page 61 and the table above as a point estimate each quarter, it is clearly subject to a margin of error and consequently, as with any measure of capacity, should be used with considerable caution. There are uncertainties regarding both the growth and the level of potential. It cannot be reasonably assumed that potential grows in each year or quarter at the same annual rate. Some qualifications about the measure of potential appear on pages 64-65 of the 1974 Economic Report. 95 ANALYTICAL MEASURES ANALYTICAL RATIOS Year and month 850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing 851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade 852. Ratio, manufacturers' unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods industries 853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods (Percent) (Ratio) (Ratio) (1967=100) 854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (Ratio) 860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed (Ratio) 857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing® (Percent) 1973 1.47 1.46 2.59 2.60 2.67 90.1 90.8 90.7 0.075 0.866 0.847 0.867 5.7 April May June 1.46 1.46 1.48 2.73 2.78 2.89 91.4 92.0 92.9 0.078 0.842 0.871 0.878 5.8 July August September... 1.46 1.47 1.48 2.89 3.02 3.06 92.6 95.0 95.1 0.080 0.910 0.886 0.878 P 82.'6 1.46 1.45 1.49 3.01 3.04 3.13 95.2 95.7 96.6 0.095 0.918 0.877 0.825 5.8 January February March p80.5 1.47 1.47 1.46 3.14 3.16 3.14 98.1 99.2 99.3 0.089 0.747 0.737 0.757 6.2 April May June p80.1 1.46 1.47 1.49 3.20 3.21 3.30 99.5 100.4 100.0 0.074 0.787 0.755 0.743 6.3 July August September.. p79.4 1.48 1.48 1.52 3.39 3.45 3.46 101.0 99.2 102.7 0.066 0.720 0.689 0.601 6.2 1.54 1.59 1.67 3.32 3.38 3.56 103.0 103.7 103.0 0.086 0.532 0.450 0.383 6.0 P68I2 .67 .66 .69 3.50 3.44 3.47 101.8 100.4 99.0 0.075 0.304 0.302 0.276 6.1 p67#.6 .64 .62 .59 3.29 3.33 3.30 96.5 94.9 92.4 0.106 0.269 0.258 0.305 6.3 r P 68. # 9 .56 .54 pl.53 3.29 r3.17 P3.O8 r90.8 r91.5 91.5 r0.078 0.319 0.317 rO.318 6.2 (NA) p90.7 January p82.8 February March October November . . . December . . . 1974 October.... November . . December . . 1975 January February . . . March April May June July August September.. October.... November .. December .. (NA) pO.3O9 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p ' \ preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 62. 96 NOVEMBER 1975 ItCII ANALYTICAL MEASURES DIFFUSION INDEXES Leading Indicators Year and month D1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (21 industries) D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (35 industries) 9-month span D11. Newly approved capital appropriations, The Conference Board1 (17 industries) 1-quarter span 1-month span 9-month span 1-month span 52.4 92.9 52.4 52.4 33.3 35.7 65.7 61.4 80.0 90.0 85.7 91.4 82 26.2 59.5 69.0 28.6 26.2 23.8 61.4 54.3 51.4 82. 85. 82, 53 July August September.., 45.2 31.0 19.0 52.4 35.7 85.7 45.7 51.4 50.0 80.0 62.9 68.6 59 October November . . . December . . . 23.8 73.8 42.9 23.8 35.7 9.5 62.9 55.7 34.3 74.3 68.6 January February March 26.2 59.5 42.9 35.7 7.1 7.1 65.7 57.1 60.0 82.9 85.7 71.4 47 April May 7.1 92.9 35.7 57.1 65.7 47.1 74.3 68.6 60.0 59 21.4 47.6 23.8 4.8 0.0 11.9 4.8 4.8 47.6 60.0 45.7 40.0 45.7 14.3 14.3 53 38.1 9.5 23.8 0.0 4.8 9.5 45.7 18.6 17.1 11.4 5.7 18.6 35 19.0 11.9 33.3 0.0 23.8 19.0 48.6 51.4 34.3 17.1 25.7 31.4 47 61.9 47.6 81.0 r59.5 r69.0 p6l.9 77.1 42.9 54.3 45.7 r60.0 p71.4 P53 3-quarter span D34. Profits, mfg., First National City Bank (about 1,000 corporations) 1-quarter span 4-quarter span© D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (65-71 industries)2© 1-month span 9-month span D23. Index of industrial materials prices (13 industrial materials) 1-month span 9-month span 1973 January February March April May June 59 94 62 76 61 82 65 78 26.8 14.5 19.6 26.5 19.1 25.0 84.6 84.6 76.9 92.3 92.3 92.3 77 21.7 14.7 15.4 19.1 17.6 30.9 61.5 80.8 76.9 92.3 92.3 92.3 74 66.2 41.9 88.2 23.9 16.4 26.9 73.1 65.4 46.2 92.3 69.2 76.9 75 89.0 7.5 13.4 35.8 53.7 35.8 46.2 69.2 69.2 100.0 84.6 76.9 71 85.8 50.7 91.0 28.8 10.6 6.1 84.6 69.2 53.8 69.2 76.9 61.5 59 9.7 27.3 39.4 6.1 10.6 4.6 61.5 38.5 53.8 61.5 46.2 46.2 51 4.5 7.6 1.5 4.6 3.1 10.8 38.5 46.2 42.3 46.2 23 23. 50 66.2 70.8 9.2 23.1 38.5 70.8 19.2 23.1 7.7 23, 23, 23.1 58 95.4 93.8 86.2 62.0 98.5 100.0 53.8 42.3 38.5 11.5 15.4 15.4 53 69.2 61.0 70.8 95.4 93.8 89.2 46.2 38.5 61.5 38.5 61.5 61.5 71 64.6 6.2 40.0 55 60 1974 June July August , September.., October November . . . December . . , 59 59 47 15 59 58 58 40 1975 January February March April May June July August September... October November . . . December . . . 78.6 r90.5 r8l.O P45.2 74.3 47.1 r51.4 P 62.9 (NA) P12 (NA) 48 57.7 65.4 76.9 70.8 3 3 53.8 46.2 46.2 NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are considered rising.) Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, 3-quarter indexes on the 1st month of the 3d quarter, and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in D19, which requires no adjustment, and D34, which is adjusted as an index (1-quarter span only). Table E4 identifies the components for many of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Graphs of these series are shown on page 63. 1 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board. Based on 71 components in January 1973, on 69 components through April 1973, on 68 components through October 1973, on 67 components through April 1974, on 66 components through September 1974, and on 65 components thereafter. Component data are not shown in table E4 but are available from the source agency. 3Average for November 4, 11, and 18. 2 NOVEMBER 1975 97 ANALYTICAL MEASURES 1 HDIFFUSIOI^i INDEXES-Cori. Roughly Coincident Indicators Leading Indicators-Con. Year and month D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas)1 D41. Number of employees on nonagriculural payrolls (30 industries) D47. Index of industrial production (24 industries) D58. Index of wholesale prices (22 manufacturing industries)® D54. Sales of retail stores (23 types of stores) 9-month span 1-month span 6-month span 1-month span 6-month span 1-month span 6-month span 67.0 74.5 36.2 68.1 66,0 74.5 68.3 86.7 86.7 85.0 83.3 85.0 79.2 91.7 62.5 83.3 79.2 83.3 95.5 97.7 95.5 100.0 95.5 95.5 87.0 76.1 65.2 100.0 97.8 95.7 April May June 53.2 36.2 57.4 38.3 68.1 57.4 63.3 65.0 76.7 83.3 76.7 70.0 50.0 77.1 54.2 79.2 77.1 79.2 95.5 90.9 84.1 95.5 95.5 95.5 30.4 69.6 56.5 100.0 100.0 87.0 July August September 63.8 46.8 44.7 57.4 8.5 8.5 65.0 65.0 56.7 68.3 81.7 83.3 70.8 70.8 62.5 79.2 70.8 54.2 75.0 91.0 77.3 90.9 95.5 95.5 73.9 34.8 73.9 69.6 47.8 91.3 October November December 46.8 72.3 2.1 38.3 29.8 23.4 76.7 76.7 68.3 83.3 76.7 75.0 45.8 62.5 45.8 45.8 35.4 45.8 79.5 86.4 90.9 95.5 90.9 90.9 65.2 56.5 43.5 87.0 95.7 87.0 January February March 53.2 83.0 40.4 19.1 14.9 34.0 53.3 41.7 48.3 66.7 46.7 46.7 35.4 37.5 64.6 39.6 33.3 52.1 90.9 95.5 88.6 95.5 95.5 95.5 78.3 60.9 78.3 91.3 78.3 91.3 April May June 51.1 56.4 34.0 12.8 55.3 44.7 41.7 48.3 48.3 43.3 a.7 50.0 47.9 70.8 50.0 54.2 41.7 41.7 91.0 84.1 81.8 95.5 90.9 90.9 47.8 60.9 39.1 91.3 87.0 78.3 July August September 75.5 48.9 28.7 0.0 6.4 8.5 60.0 55.0 51.7 46.7 33.3 18.3 39.6 37.5 52.1 31.3 12.5 10.4 81.8 77.3 68.2 77.3 72.7 72.7 95.7 52.2 60.9 52.2 50.0 60.9 October November December 46.8 8.5 53.2 2.1 4.3 2.1 35.0 10.0 16.7 21.7 15.0 10.0 33.3 20.8 8.3 12.5 12.5 8.3 72.7 68.2 65.9 72.7 68.2 68.2 43.5 21.7 52.2 82.6 65.2 60.9 January February March 55.3 29.8 55.3 6.4 12.8 36.2 13.3 13.3 20.0 10.0 11.7 15.0 16.7 27.1 20.8 12.5 10.4 29.2 63.6 63.6 59.1 68.2 72.7 72.7 73.9 67.4 34.8 78.3 87.0 82.6 April May June 44-7 66.0 46.8 68.1 68 1 57 4 43.3 66.7 38*3 35.0 r53.3 r73.3 58.3 47.9 75.0 50.0 54.2 r75.0 70.5 63.6 68.2 77.3 75.0 81.8 67.4 89.1 65.2 100.0 r95.7 P91.3 July August September 68.1 42.6 31.9 65.0 r81.7 r83.3 p70.0 p80.0 79.2 r70.8 r87.5 p79.2 75.0 88.6 90.9 90.9 45.7 r60.9 r56.5 1-month span 1-month span 9-month span 1973 January February March .. . 1974 1975 October November December 61.7 p60.4 86.4 p47.8 . . . . NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "o". preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 63 and 64. 1 Component data are not available for publication and therefore are not shown in table E4. 98 NOVEMBER 1975 ANALYTICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change 1975 Diffusion index components March April May June July August September1* OctoberP D1. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING1 (Average weekly hours) All manufacturing industries 38.9 Percent rising of 21 components (33) + 39.1 - (62) 39.0 + (48) 39.3 + (81) + 39.4 39.7 + (90) (79) 39.8 o (81) 39.8 (45) Durable goods industries: 37.2 o + 41.1 38.8 37.5 + + + 41.6 39.0 37.6 + + 40.1 39.1 37.8 + + 39.5 38.3 + o + 41.9 39.5 38.8 o + 41.6 39.5 38.9 + - 40.3 39.7 - 40.2 39.5 + + 40.3 39.6 + + 40.6 39.7 + + 40.7 39.9 + + 40.9 40.0 + 40.8 40.1 39.7 40.9 o + 39.7 41.0 - 39.5 40.5 o - 39.5 40.4 o + 39.5 40.5 + + r40.0 r40.8 + - 40.3 40.7 o o 40.3 40.7 Electrical equipment and supplies Transportation equipment 39.2 39.1 + + 39.4 40.5 - 39.1 39.5 + + 39.3 40.0 + + 39.5 40.7 + + r39.6 41.2 o - 39.6 40.7 o - 39.6 40.5 Instruments and related products Miscellaneous manufacturing industries. 39.1 37.7 + + 39.2 38.1 + o 39.3 38.1 + + 39.4 38.3 + - 39.7 38.1 - r39.5 + 38.2 + + 39.8 38.7 o - 39.8 38.6 Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures 40.2 38.6 - 39.9 38.3 o - 39.9 36.9 o + 39.9 39.8 + - 40.1 35.4 + + r40.7 r37.6 + + 40.8 38.1 - 40.6 36.7 Textile mill products Apparel and other textile products 36.9 33.8 + + 37.7 34.3 + + 38.9 34.4 + + 39.2 35.2 + o 39.6 35.2 + + r40.4 r35.5 + + 40.9 35.9 + + 41.0 36.1 Paper and allied products. Printing and publishing .. 40.5 37.0 - 40.4 36.8 + - 40.9 36.7 + a.5 o 36.7 + o 41.6 36.7 + r42.1 + 37.1 + - 42.2 37.0 + - 42.3 36.9 Chemicals and allied products , Petroleum and coal products .. 40.4 41.7 - 40.3 41.0 + + 40.6 41.5 + - 40.7 41.2 + 40.9 + a.3 + r41.1 - r41.0 + + 41.3 41.5 o - 41.3 41.3 Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c. Leather and leather products 38.7 35.3 + + 39.0 36.5 + o 39.6 36.5 o + 39.6 37.5 + + + r40.1 + 38.0 + + 40.3 38.4 o + 40.3 38.9 o Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures 41.3 38.0 36.6 + Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries 39.6 40.0 Fabricated metal products.. Machinery, except electrical 41.3 Nondurable goods industries: 40.0 37.8 D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS'NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1 (Millions of dollars) 35,973 + 38,983 + 39,428 + 39,730 (34) (77) (43) (54) Primary metals Fabricated metal products. 4,961 4,449 + 5,395 + 4,813 5,863 4,844 + 5,887 - 4,700 Machinery, except electrical .. Electrical machinery 6,759 4,662 + 6,946 + 5,316 + 7,117 - 5,183 Transportation equipment Other durable goods industries . . . 8,186 6,956 + 8,738 + 7,775 + 8,769 - 7,652 All durable goods industries Percent rising of 35 components - + 41,681 (74) 2 42,688 - 42,227 (51) (47) + 42,779 (63) + 6,189 + 5,111 6,909 5,179 - 6,265 + 5,196 6,9a 6,984 5,133 7,368 5,279 6,929 5,809 + 7,120 - 5,144 7,619 5,338 9,194 7,832 + 9,793 + 7,941 9,758 8,104 + + 9,379 8,174 9,982 8,520 5,328 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The " r " indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. •'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are all included in the totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here. NOVEMBER 1975 99 ANALYTICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con. 1975 Diffusion index components March April May June July August September October November D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES2 Industrial materials price index (1967=100) . . . + 182.3 + 186.4- - 184.2 - 173.2 - 171.5 + 179.6 + 184.2 - 181.9 - 179.3 (Dollars) Percent rising of 13 components OS) (46) (38) (pound). (kilogram). (pound). (kilogram). (U.S. ton). (metric ton). (pound). (kilogram). (pound). (kilogram). (yard). (meter). 0.400 0.882 0.086 0.190 72.206 79.593 3.514 7.747 0.379 0.836 0.277 0.248 0.399 0.880 0.081 0.179 84.830 93.508 3.382 7.456 0.376 0.829 0.210 0.230 0.384 0.847 0.073 0.161 76.961 84.834 3.298 7.271 0.378 0.833 0.198 0.217 (pound). (kilogram). (yard). (meter). (pound). (kilogram). (pound). (kilogram). (100 pounds). (100 kilograms). (pound). (kilogram). (pound). (kilogram). 0.406 0.895 0.583 0.638 1.860 4.101 0.201 0.443 - 41.782 92.113 - 0.287 0.633 - 0.108 0.238 Copper scrap Lead scrap Steel scrap Tin Zinc Burlap Cotton, 12-market average Print cloth, average Wool tops Hides Rosin Rubber Tallow 0.424 0.431 0.935 0.950 0.590 0.581 0.645 0.635 1.849 2.143 4.076 4.724 0.227 0.255 0.500 0.562 40.972 - 39.068 90.327 86.129 0.291 0.275 0.642 0.606 0.116 0.123 0.256 0.271 + + + + (62) (58) 0.366 0.807 0.050 0.110 70.675 77.905 3.391 7.476 0.383 0.844 0.200 0.219 0.418 0.922 0.051 0.112 58.448 64.427 3.336 7.355 0.387 0.853 0.183 0.200 0.438 0.966 0.446 0.983 0.581 0.635 2.119 4.672 0.269 0.593 29.849 65.805 0.315 0.694 0.127 0.280 + 0.592 0.647 - 2.044 4.506 + 0.259 0.571 - 30.461 67.154 + 0.289 0.637 + 0.127 0.280 (65) (77) (46) + 0.445 + 0.452 - 0.432 0.996 0.952 0.981 + 0.066 + 0.081 + O.O85 0.179 0.187 0.146 + 70.794 + 81.303 - 68.088 89.620 75.053 78.036 - 3.229 + 3.355 o 3.336 7.119 7.396 7.355 + 0.395 + 0.405 + 0.390 0.871 0.893 0.860 - 0.177 - 0.177 + 0.180 0.197 0.194 0.194 + 0.472 + 0.505 - 0.496 1.041 1.113 1.093 + 0.588 - 0.584 + 0.593 0.639 0.643 0.649 + 2.318 + 2.358 + 2.402 5.198 5.110 5.295 - 0.254 - 0.253 + 0.286 0.558 0.560 0.631 - 26.614 + 28.817 - 28.643 63.530 63.082 63.146 - 0.305 + 0.319 - 0.301 0.703 0.672 0.664 + 0.143 + 0.155 - 0.141 0.342 0.315 0.311 (46) - 0.422 0.930 - 0.076 0.168 - 62.887 69.320 + 3.386 7.465 - 0.398 0.877 + 0.183 0.200 + 0.511 1.127 - 0.576 0.630 + 2.493 5.496 - 0.272 0.600 - 28.614 63.082 + 0.318 0.701 + 0.149 0.328 D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 3 (Thousands of employees) All nonagricultural payrolls Percent rising of 30 components Ordnance and accessories Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries Fabricated metal products Machinery, except electrical Electrical equipment Transportation equipment Instruments and related products . . . Miscellaneous manufacturing Food and kindred products Tobacco manufactures Textile mill products Apparel and other textile products.. Paper and allied products Printing and publishing Chemicals and allied products Petroleum and coal products Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c... Leather and leather products -76,468 0 76,462 +76,510 (20) (43) 84 448 347 479 84 444 349 478 923 992 o + + + 1,372 1,123 1,126 292 291 303 301 1,119 + 1,125 64 62 727 745 1,008 1,020 474 471 644 639 563 558 122 121 426 430 207 209 + 950 993 1,400 1,143 1,122 -76,343 + 76,679 + r77,023 +r77,275 +77,492 (38) (67) + 84 454 354 479 905 985 1,339 1,113 1,151 287 303 + + o 82 459 351 477 889 979 1,317 1,106 1,155 286 303 + + o + + (65) (82) (83) 81 463 355 477 878 960 1,300 1,097 1,143 287 307 77 469 + r366 + + 892 + + o rl,300 + 1,131 - rl,142 r286 + 311 r75 + r475 + r379 + r486 + r912 + 1,001 + rl,3l6 + rl,142 - rl,141 + 291 + r3l6 (70) o + + + + + + + 75 479 377 488 906 1,004 1,318 1,163 1,148 293 314 1,166 + rl,147 o 1,147 + 66 65 o r65 + r820 + + r800 + 835 1,106 + o rl,071 + rl,086 + r487 + 491 + 479 + r632 631 + r632 o r571 + 574 + r566 + 129 o 129 + + 128 + r462 + 472 o + r453 + 226 + 231 + + 220 + NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (0) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; and " N A " , not available. Average for November 4, 11, and 18. 2 Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 3 Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary. 100 + o 1,131 62 766 1,033 472 636 562 123 436 212 + o + + 1,133 62 771 1,043 469 631 560 125 436 215 - 1,131 65 111 1,071 474 629 560 127 439 219 NOVEMBER 1975 ANALYTICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con. 1975 Diffusion index components April March May September1* August1" July June OctoberP D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS-Con.' (Thousands of employees) Mining Contract construction Transportation and public utilities Wholesale trade Retail trade Finance, insurance, real estate Service Federal Government State and local government 738 3,439 4,491 4,175 732 3,441 4,508 4,176 12,671 4,209 13,878 2,731 11,961 729 3,467 4,506 4,178 12,673 4,207 13,864 2,733 11,885 741 3,392 4,469 4,153 12,724 4,202 13,871 2,738 11,953 12,682 4,208 13,889 2,732 11,994 743 3,395 4,464 4,161 12,823 4,203 13,990 2,745 12,071 749 3,415 4,466 4,159 12,857 4,218 14,050 2,756 12,099 749 3,416 4,466 4,180 12,862 4,236 + 14,126 + 2,765 - 12,065 114.0 + 116.0 770 3,387 4,474 4,182 12,850 4,247 14,174 2,763 12.127 D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1 (1967=100) All industrial production Percent rising of 24 components2 . Durable manufactures: Primary and fabricated metals Primary metals Fabricated metal products Machinery and allied goods Nonelectrical machinery Electrical machinery Transportation equipment Instruments Lumber, clay, and glass Clay, glass, and stone products Lumber and products Furniture and miscellaneous Furniture and fixtures Miscellaneous manufactures Nondurable manufactures: Textiles, apparel, and leather Textile mill products Apparel products Leather and products Paper and printing Paper and products Printing and publishing Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber Chemicals and products Petroleum products Rubber and plastics products Foods and tobacco Foods Tobacco products Mining: Coal Oil and gas extraction Metal, stone, and earth minerals . Metal mining Stone and earth minerals 110.0 109.9 + 110.1 (21) (58) (48) (75) (79) (71) 98.1 112.9 95.0 112.4 89.9 110.9 91.8 110.9 r92.8 109.7 96.5 112.7 95.8 115.3 11913 104.3 81.0 130.6 116.9 104.0 84.7 131.1 113.7 103.8 87.6 129.7 112.3 103.8 90.5 130.9 112.9 103.4 91.0 rl32.4 114.9 104.5 92.9 131.8 116.3 106.1 95.4 133.6 104.2 99.8 105.4 104.1 104.7 108.0 105.1 110.3 rl06.2 112.0 107.9 112.0 111! 6 106.'7 129.7 105.6 128.5 109.6 129.0 107.9 131.1 rl09*.Z rl31.8 109.2 134.3 + 110.2 + 135.4 86.4 63.5 100.4 88.2 68.0 103.8 90.9 70.0 + rll0.7 + r92.9 + r73.5 114.9 94.9 72.5 + 102.6 + 119.7 (NA) + 78.1 104 '.5 104.0 105.8 100.2 105.8 102.6 + + 109.5 + 105.9 - 111.7 104.4 116.4 106.8 121.1 107.5 133^6 120.1 126.8 132! 8 120.2 133.5 135.* 7 118.5 132.7 + + + 138.2 + rl43.4 122.4 + I-124..6 140.1 + 141.6 146 !o 126.5 147.7 121'. 3 102.6 122.9 115.9 123." 8 103.8 - 102.2 104.8 105.7 148.7 127.0 149.9 125.5 126.9 (NA) 111.1 + o + + + 106.9 91.5 71.2 112.2 + 112.8 + 112.2 106.6 113.6 104.5 120.4 105.5 + 120.6 - z-104.5 101.9 104.2 + 113.6 + 104.8 125.4 105.1 + - 125.8 104.7 114.8 100.4 110.6 - 122.3 98.8 - rllO.3 116.5 (60) 117.4 106.1 95.3 + rlO1.4 + 118.9 97.7 - 95.2 115.0 116.5 106.0 94.9 134.1 112.0 (NA) (NA) 123.1 (NA) (NA) 104.7 (NA) (NA) (NA) 114.0 (NA) 106.8 147.2 150.7 127.0 (NA) 126.1 127.6 (NA) 114.5 105.0 106.3 (NA) (NA) NOTE: To facilitate.interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (0) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; and " N A " , not available. •'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. NOVEMBER 1975 101 ANALYTICAL MEASURES E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con. 1975 Diffusion index components March April May June July October September August D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1 (Millions of dollars) All retail sales 2 Percent rising of 23 components Grocery stores Eating and drinking places Department stores Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) + + Variety stores Men's and boys' wear stores Women's apparel, accessory stores Shoe stores 45,951 + 46,813 48,173 + 48,578 + 49,655 r49,925 -r49,473 + 49,955 (35) (67) (89) (65) (46) (61) (56) (48) 10,105 3,935 5,094 482 + 10,255 + 3,984 - 5,031 + 496 + 10,531 - 3,933 - 5,017 + 510 rlO,429 r3,901 r5,201 - 10,219 + 3,911 - 5,116 + 532 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 728 511 876 344 r799 r523 r948 r353 781 508 888 357 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 10,058 3,821 4,852 456 + + 9,846 3,898 4,825 476 739 506 820 310 + o 746 506 819 337 + o + + 788 506 854 356 774 517 863 346 1,244 686 1,415 468 + + + 1,216 716 1,517 489 1,245 723 1,515 484 + 1,280 688 o 1,515 478 rl,277 r711 1,505 r472 1,281 717 1,563 479 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 7,164 737 3,532 1,455 884 + + + + + 7,508 755 3,565 1,499 919 7,654 793 3,616 1,532 941 + 8,082 768 + 3,790 - 1,525 927 r8,120 r751 r3,832 rl,526 r929 7,932 746 3,800 1,540 931 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 174.5 (86) Furniture, home furnishings stores Household appliance, TV, radio stores Lumber yards, building materials dealers Hardware stores + - 1,199 660 1,355 464 Passenger car and other automotive dealers Tire, battery, accessory dealers Gasoline service stations Drug and proprietary stores Liquor stores - 6,623 738 3,497 1,488 903 + + + + + + + + 509 + D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 3 (1967=100) All manufacturing industries Percent rising of 22 components Durable goods: Lumber and wood products Furniture and household durables Nonmetallic minerals products Iron and steel 167.8 168.7 + 169.5 + 170.1 171.4 172.3 173.0 (59) (70) (64) (68) (75) (89) (91) 169.6 138.5 170.8 200.6 + o + + - 174.9 138.5 173.0 201.1 172.2 188.4 180.1 176.1 -I+ + + + 183.0 138.6 173.1 200.6 171.1 188.8 179.4 177.6 + + + + 181.0 139.0 173.3 199.4 169.1 188.6 181.7 178.2 179.6 139.2 174.7 197.3 167.7 188.5 182.2 179.6 179.7 139.8 175.8 198.4 169.3 189.1 182.2 180.1 + + + o 161.5 140.4 143.1 147.5 161.9 140.8 143.1 147.7 163.1 140.9 143.5 147.8 + + + + + + o + + + + + 179.9 140.1 176.1 200.4 170.8 189.2 182.2 181.3 165.1 141.8 143.9 148.2 + + + + + + 179.1 141.1 177.1 204.7 170.7 190.2 182.4 181.8 + + + - 165.9 142.3 150.0 147.6 Nonferrous metals Fabricated structural metal products Miscellaneous metal products General purpose machinery and equipment.. 173.9 189.9 180.0 174.8 Miscellaneous machinery Electrical machinery and equipment Motor vehicles and equipment Miscellaneous products 158.5 139.1 143.0 146.8 160.3 139.5 143.0 147.3 161.4 140.1 142.9 147.5 177.3 156.0 102.0 121.7 133.3 179.4 158.1 103.5 121.7 133.0 179.0 162.6 107.0 123.0 132.2 179.7 164.3 107.5 124.6 132.5 184.6 167.4 107.8 127.3 132.4 186.3 169.4 108.5 128.8 132.8 186.1 171.4 108.5 129.9 133.1 186.2 182.8 114.9 132.3 133.6 170.0 181.8 242.3 149.7 143.2 169.7 182.4 243.6 149.4 147.5 169.8 182.1 246.1 148.9 147.7 169.8 181.2 252.2 148.6 148.7 170.0 181.4 258.8 150.1 149.3 170.0 182.1 268.6 150.0 149.3 170.3 182.2 272.1 150.8 151.3 170.9 182.3 274.2 151.5 152.4 Nondurable goods: Processed foods and feeds Cotton products Wool products Manmade fiber textile products.. Apparel Pulp, paper, and allied products Chemicals and allied products Petroleum products, refined Rubber and plastic products Hides, skins, leather, and related products. NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; , preliminary; and "NA", not available. ^ata are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary. The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately. 3 Data are not seasonally adjusted. 2 102 NOVEMBER 1975 ItO INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS IB R l CONSUMER PRICES Year and month 781. United States, index of consumer prices® 133. Canada, index of consumer prices® 132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices® 135. West Germany, index of consumer prices® 136. France, 138. Japan, index of index of consumer consumer prices® prices® (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) NDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 137. Italy, index of consumer prices (Q) 47. United States, index of industrial production 123. Canada, index of industrial production 122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production 126. France, index of industrial production (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) 1973 128 129 130 125 126 126 144 144 145 126 127 128 136 136 137 138 140 April May June 131 132 132 128 129 130 148 149 150 129 129 130 138 139 140 July August September 133 135 136 131 133 133 151 151 152 130 130 131 141 October November December 137 138 138 134 135 136 155 157 158 132 133 134 January February March 140 142 U3 137 138 139 161 April May June 144 140 143 144 170 173 175 July August September 14S 150 152 146 147 148 October November December 153 154 155 156 January February March . . . . 127 128 130 122 123 124 139 142 142 120 123 124 150 145 148 148 131 133 142 142 144 121 121 122 144 153 134 124 125 126 150 151 155 135 136 137 127 126 127 143 139 142 123 123 123 153 153 150 U5 146 147 154 156 160 138 139 141 127 128 126 144 146 146 125 123 119 153 154 148 135 137 137 150 152 153 167 173 174 UU 147 U9 125 125 125 148 U9 150 113 115 119 157 157 153 138 156 179 151 139 139 158 159 179 181 154 157 125 126 126 148 147 147 121 121 122 158 176 176 177 139 140 161 163 168 126 125 126 146 146 14-5 123 123 121 161 161 140 184 185 189 160 163 165 U9 151 152 182 185 188 141 142 142 167 168 169 193 194 195 171 174 176 125 122 117 145 143 142 120 120 118 152 146 142 U3 U3 151 146 151 1974 146 147 163 165 154 156 152 1975 January February March 153 154 155 192 196 200 144 144 H5 171 196 196 198 114 111 110 n9 173 174 178 181 181 139 157 158 140 139 119 116 rl43 143 139 April May June 159 159 161 156 157 159 207 216 220 I46 147 148 176 177 178 203 205 205 183 185 186 110 110 111 139 138 139 114 112 112 139 rl34 139 July August September 162 163 164 162 163 163 222 224 226 148 148 149 179 181 182 206 205 209 187 rl88 190 112 114 116 138 rl38 pl36 112 pill (NA) 137 pl37 (NA) October November December 165 (NA) (NA) 149 (NA) 212 (NA) pll6 (NA) NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 66 and 67. IICII NOVEMBER 1975 103 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS E ^ N D U S T R I A L PRODUCTION-Con. 125. West Germany, ndex of ndustrial production Year and month (1967=100) g | S T O C K PRICES 128. Japan, index of industrial production 121.0ECD,1 European countries, index of industrial production 127. Italy, index of industrial production 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks® 143. Canada, index of stock prices© 142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices® 146. France, index of stock prices® 145. West Germany, index of stock prices® 148. Japan, index of stock prices® 147. Italy, index of stock prices® (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) 1973 January February March April May June . . . July August September . . October November December 150 156 151 186 186 193 142 144 142 124 123 123 129 124 122 146 145 143 182 168 164 174 173 185 139 136 142 387 364 363 83 84 93 153 152 154 190 196 197 142 144 145 132 134 138 120 117 114 142 135 135 168 167 171 191 196 190 142 130 128 344 339 338 97 109 125 147 154 156 197 200 201 144 146 147 141 131 139 115 113 115 141 144 146 161 156 154 183 179 180 120 119 116 355 351 333 118 105 107 155 156 156 205 207 203 148 148 146 141 139 138 119 111 103 153 148 134 159 151 126 183 166 166 118 112 106 325 313 285 109 108 97 1974 January February March . ... 154 153 152 202 202 199 147 147 147 148 143 144 104 102 106 139 141 146 126 124 116 173 167 153 110 110 108 293 308 304 106 108 112 April May June . .. 152 152 153 196 200 189 148 148 150 148 145 147 101 98 98 136 123 122 112 112 103 145 134 134 112 112 108 305 303 306 116 106 97 July August September 150 149 151 191 183 183 148 146 147 144 131 145 90 83 74 118 113 101 94 82 74 135 125 106 103 104 99 295 270 261 90 88 76 October November December 149 148 142 180 175 169 145 142 137 138 130 124 76 78 73 101 97 93 71 65 58 114 113 117 96 97 101 239 245 255 74 79 72 January February March 140 142 144 162 160 160 137 138 137 129 132 126 79 87 91 103 112 109 69 99 109 177 134 144 105 112 120 250 271 284 71 79 82 April May June 136 141 138 165 166 169 135 133 135 128 120 127 92 98 101 112 115 116 115 126 127 155 142 139 124 119 114 290 298 297 78 77 73 132 140 (NA) 173 pl70 (NA) rl32 pl28 (NA) 101 93 92 118 pill 119 115 128 144 150 pl45 117 120 116 293 280 271 66 64 64 QA T»Ti"I 0 7 rP132 r P 144 pl48 119 rp287 p295 p6l pl24 1975 July August September P 135 (NA) October November December yo p98 115 plO7 pl41 P 63 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except thoseseries that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 67 and 68. •"Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 104 NOVEMBER 1975 ItCII APPENDIXES E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970 Duration in months Contraction (trough from previous Business cycle reference dates Trough Cycle Expansion (trough to peak) Trough from previous trough Peak from previous peak Peak T2 30 22 46 18 34 36 (X) 48 30 78 36 99 (X) 40 54 50 52 101 March 1887 . . . July 1890 January 1893 . . December 1895 June 1899 September 1902 65 38 13 10 17 18 18 22 21 20 18 24 21 74 35 31 37 36 42 60 40 30 35 42 39 August 1904 June 1908 January 1912 December 1914 ..March 1919 July 1921 May 1907 January 1910 . . January 1913 . . August 1918 . . . January 1920 . . May 1923 23 13 24 23 7 18 33 19 12 44 10 22 44 46 43 35 51 28 56 32 36 67 17 40 July 1924 November 1927 March 1933 June 1938 October 1945 October 1949 October 1926 . . August 1929 . . . May 1937 February 1945 . November 1948 July 1953 14 13 43 13 21 21 50 80 37 45 36 40 64 63 41 34 93 93 45 56 May 1954 April 1958 February 1961 November 1970 August 1957 . . . April 1960 . . . . December 1969 10 8 10 11 39 24 106 (X) 47 34 117 Average, all cycles: 27 cycles, 1854-1970 11 cycles, 1919-1970 5 cycles, 1945-1970 . 19 14 10 33 42 50 52 56 60 Average, peacetime cycles: 22 cycles, 1854-1961 . 8 cycles, 1919-1961 . . 3 cycles, 1945-1961 . . 20 16 10 26 29 33 46 45 43 December 1854 December 1858 June 1861 December 1867 December 1870 March 1879 June 1857 October 1860 . . April 1865 . . . . June 1869 October 1873 . . March 1882 . . . May 1885 April 1888 May 1891 June 1894 June 1897 December 1900 (X) 18 8 32 3. 11 49 32 116 (X) 2 60 60 3 5 6 48 42 NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and I , Korean War, and Vietnam War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions. ^ c y c l e s , 1857-1969. 10 cycles, 1920-1969. 2 3 4 5 cycles, 1945-1969. 21 cycles, 1857-1960. 5 6 7 cycles, 1920-19R0. 3 cycles, 1945-1960. Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 105 G. E x p e r i m e n t a l Data and Analyses Selected Components of New Composite Index of Leading Indicators (NOV.) (OCT.) (JULYMMAY) P (DEC.) (NOV.) T P mm T in i M in in MI X213. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 1967 dollars (bil. dol.) tOD. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment, 1967 dollars (bil. dol. X170D. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1967 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bil. dol. X201. Percent change in sensitive prices, WPI crude materials excluding foods and feeds, smoothed1 (percent) X108. Money balance (Ml), 1967 dollars (bil. dol X136. Percent change in total liquid assets, smoothed 1947 194S 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 i960 19A1 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 NOTE: Current data for these series are shown on page 107. The new leading index is shown on pages 37 and 83. ^Series is a weighted ^.-terrn moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span. 106 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Current Data for Selected Components of New Leading Index X213. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 1967 dollars 10D. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment, 1967 dollars Year and month (Mil.dol.) (Bil.dol.) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) X136. Percent change in total liquid X108. Money balance (M1), 1967 dollars2 X201. Percent change in sensitive prices, WPI crude materials excluding foods and feeds, smoothed1 X170D. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1967 dollars, smoothed1 smoothed1 (Bil.dol.) (Percent) (Percent) 1973 January February March 29,135 29,833 30,085 9.13 9.06 9.37 10.70 10.84 11.32 1.12 0.95 0.90 200.8 200.4 198.8 > 1.07 0.99 April May June 29,806 30,401 30,022 9.11 9.40 10.03 11.51 13.25 17.44 .16 .59 .08 198.4 199.5 200.6 0.99 1.06 1.10 July August September.., 29,694 29,801 29,229 10.08 9.75 9.70 H)21.33 19.97 16.81 2.16 1.85 1.90 200.5 197.0 196.3 1.06 0.98 0.89 October November . . . December . . . 30,134 29,608 28,750 D10.62 10.42 16.38 17.79 18.97 2.36 3.27 3.88 195.3 195.8 196.0 0.79 0.71 0.72 10.02 9.76 9.72 13.47 6.35 0.65 4.06 4.42 4.94 193.4 192.8 192.4 0.82 0.89 0.88 9.95 1974 January February March 28,034 28,025 E>30,931 , , 28,192 28,970 28,579 10.14 10.39 -2.77 -2.70 0.30 H)5.46 4.02 1.61 192.1 190.8 190.7 0.90 0.92 0.90 July August , September.. 28,351 28,334 27,096 10.40 9.15 9.25 0.95 1.70 2.26 189.4 187.3 185.3 0.82 0.67 0.52 October November . . December . . 25,854 24,356 21,569 8.36 7.86 8.42 2.05 -3.26 -10.85 -13.75 -13.38 -13.78 1.29 0.18 -0.53 184.2 183.8 182.9 0.44 0.46 0.48 January February March 20,655 21,152 20,831 7.13 7.06 7.00 r-11.71 r-18.34 r-25.60 -1.39 -1.70 -1.28 180.0 179.5 180.6 0.48 0.51 0.60 April May June 22,536 22,777 23,114 7.83 7.80 7.42 r-28.13 r-24.81 r-21.50 -0.41 0.45 0.99 180.1 181.1 182.6 0.68 0.73 0.86 24,285 24,931 r24,933 7.60 r8.22 r7.14 r-18.50 r-11.38 p-4.26 180.8 180.9 rl80.4 0.98 rO.91 r0.70 p25,171 p7.26 (NA) 0.84 0.42 r0.71 1.11 pl78.8 pO.54 April May June 9.80 1975 July August , September.. October November . . , December . . , NOTE: leading Current 1 Series 2 Series I Graphs of these series are shown on page 106. Historical data were shown in the May 1975 BCD indexes are shown on pages 37 and 83, The old leading index is shown on page 108. Series are high values are indicated by [H). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the X108 reached its current high value (200.9) in December 1972, (pages xx-xxii). The new seasonally adjusted. and "NA", not available. span. 107 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Old Composite Index of Leading Indicators (NOV.) (OCT.) (JULY)(MAY> P III m (AUG.) (APR.) T P (APR.)(FEB.) T P III I I I I I I I T T I I I I I I I I I 1 1 1 T i l I I I (DEC.) (NOV.) T P T T T T T T T T T T III III 111 III II1 i n III III TTTTTT TTT Index: 1967=100 Old Indexes of 12 Leading Indicators (series 1. 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17. 19, 23, 29, 31, 113) 810. Ratio Scale 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 Reverse trend adjusted1 70 r4 140 130 120 110 100 90 ~x Wx/ 811. Prior to trend adjustment "S \s 70 111 iJii 111111111111 h \ul\ 111111111111 til 1111111 \iii\ 1111111111111111111111111111111111 i n 111111111111111111111 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Series 810: Series 811: Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 197319741975- 155.9 167.8 153.2 158.8 170.2 153.4 161.3 172.3 152.5 159.7 173.0 157.6 162.9 175.6 159.5 164.3 176.0 rl64.5 165.6 H>179.6 rl69.9 167.3 177.9 rl71.9 165.1 172.2 174.0 166.8 168.3 a 175.4 168.1 162.8 165.6 159.3 197319741975- 121.5 125.1 109.1 123.3 126.3 108.9 124.8 127.5 107.8 123.1 127.4 111.0 125.1 128.9 111.9 125.7 128.7 rll5.0 126.2 ©130.8 rll8.4 127.0 129.2 rll9.3 124.9 124.5 120.3 125.7 121.3 120.8 126.2 116.9 123.9 113.9 June July 2 Current high values are indicated by |H); "r" indicates revised. 1 Reverse trend adjusted index contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators (series 820). 2 Excludes series 16, 31, and 113 for which data are not yet available. 108