Full text of Business Conditions Digest : November 1975
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This report was prepared In the Statistical Indicators
Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication
areBarry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and
review,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. Tunstall-Collection and compilation of
basic data. (Telephone 301-763-7106)
The cooperation of various government and private
agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the
list of series and sources at the back of this report.
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Rogers C. B. Morton, Secretary
James L. Pate, Assistant Secretary
for Economic Affairs
This publication is prepared under the general
guidance of a technical committee established by the
Office of Management and Budget. The committee
consists of the following persons:
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Morris R. Goldman, Deputy Director
Beatrice N. Vaccara, Associate Director for National
Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor
Julius Shiskin, Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Department of Labor
Joseph W. Duncan, Office of Management and Budget
Sidney L. Jones, Department of the Treasury
Burton G. Malkiel, Council of Economic Advisers,
Executive Office of the President
J. Cortland Peret, Federal Reserve Board
Beatrice N. Vaccara, bureau of Economic Analysis,
Department of Commerce
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
personal, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
vario us organ iza tions
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
Subscription price, including supplements, is $55.25 a year ($13.85 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are $4.35. Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign
airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below),
This monthly report brings together many of the economic
time series found most useful by business analysts and
forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments,
emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of
business conditions and was based largely on the list of
leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Some other approaches commonly used by students of
economic conditions include econometric models and
anticipations and intentions data. The econometric model
concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships
among consumption, private investment, government, and
various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of
businessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of the
content of Business Cycle Developments has been retained in
this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of
other approaches have been added to make it more generally
useful to those concerned with an evaluation of current
business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section
of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not to
be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis or any other government agency of any
particular approach to economic analysis. This report is
intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report have
been published by their source agencies. A series finding
guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and data
sources, is shown at the back of this report.
enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402.
BCD
New Features and Changes for This Issue
iii
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
Seasonal Adjustments
1
MCD Moving Averages
1
Reference Turning Dates
1
Section A. National Income and Product
1
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
2
NOVEMBER 1975
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
3
Data Through October
Series ES1 No. 75-11
Section D. Other Key Indicators
3
Section E. Analytical Measures
3
Section F. International Comparisons
3
How to Read Charts
4
How to Locate a Series
4
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
5
PART I. CHARTS
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
9
10
C1 I Aggregate Series
C2 | Diffusion I ndexes
44
46
Personal Consumption Expenditures
11
A4
A5
A6
Gross Private Domestic Investment
12
Foreign Trade
13
Government Purchases of Goods and Services . .
14
Foreign T r a d e
48
A7
Final Sales and Inventories
15
Balance of Payments and Major Components . . .
49
Federal Government Activities
54
Price Movements
56
A8
A9
A10
A11
National Income Components
16
Saving
17
Real Gross National Product
18
Shares of GNP and National Income
19
Wages and Productivity
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
58
...
60
Actual and Potential Gross National Product . . .
61
62
Employment and Unemployment
20
Analytical Ratios
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade . .
23
Diffusion Indexes
63
Fixed Capital Investment
25
Rates of Change
65
Inventories and Inventory Investment
28
Prices, Costs, and Profits
30
Money and Credit
33
Selected Indicators by Timing
B7
B8
D3
D4
D5
D6
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Composite I ndexes
NBER Short List
37
39
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
66
Industrial Production
67
Stock Prices
68
The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the
transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this
periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through
September 1, 1980.
PART II. TABLES
a
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services . .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical T i m i n g
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade . .
Fixed Capital Investment
I nventories and I nventory I nvestment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Selected Indicators b y T i m i n g
Composite I ndexes
69
69
70
70
71
71
71
71
72
72
73
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
84
84
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
D6
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components . . .
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components . . .
86
87
89
90
92
94
E2
E3
E4
Actual and Potential GNP
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
74
76
77
78
79
81
83
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
95
96
97
99
103
103
104
PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See December 1974 issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See September 1975 issue)
B. Current Adjustment Factors (See October 1975issue)
C.
D.
E.
F.
Historical Data for Selected Series (See "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide"in October 1975 issue)
Descriptions and Sources of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" in October 1975issue)
Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970
Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators (See April 1975issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide (See October 1975issue)
Titles and Sources of Series (See October 1975issue)
105
106
eaders are invited to submit comments and
iggestions concerning this publication.
ddress them to Feliks Tamm, Statistical
ldicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20233
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findChanges in this issue are as follows:
ings of economic
research, newly avail-
1. New composite indexes of coincident and lagging
Indicators are introduced in this issue. These indexes mark
bhe completion of the second phase of a comprehensive review
3f cyclical indicators begun in September 1972. (See page
Lii of the May 1975 BCD in which the results of the first
phase were published?!"" The last phase, which is scheduled
Cor completion early in 1976, consists of a review of those
cyclical indicators which are not included in the composite
indexes, and it probably will result in the addition of some
aew indicators and the deletion of some current ones.
able time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
The new coincident index is composed of four indicators:
Series kl—Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls; series
+7—Index of industrial production; series X23^—Personal income
Less transfer payments, deflated; and series 56D—Manufacturing
and trade sales, deflated.
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
The new 6-series lagging index includes two of the original
Index components: Series 62—Labor cost per unit of output, and
series 72—Commercial and industrial loans outstanding. A third
component of the original index, series 71—Manufacturing and
brade inventories, is included in the new index in deflated form
(series 71D). Of the three remaining components, two (series
£1—Average duration of unemployment and X251—Ratio of consumer
Installment debt to personal income) are new to BCD, and the
third (series 109—Average prime rate charged by banks) was included in the report but not in the index.
Background information on the composition of the new indexes
is given in the article "New Composite Indexes of Coincident and
Lagging Indicators11 (see page v) by Professor Victor Zarnowitz of
the Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, and
Dr. Charlotte Boschan of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Appendixes to this article contain descriptions for the components
Df the new indexes and historical data for the indexes and their
aew components.
(Continued on page iv.)
The December issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
release on December 31•
ill
indexes, etc.
The new composite indexes (leading, coincident, and lagging) are charted
on page 37 of BCD, and current data for these indexes are shown on page 83.
2. The new reverse trend adjusted composite index of leading indicators
has been revised from 19^8 to date to incorporate the trend of the new
coincident index. Since its introduction in May, this version of the leading
index had contained the trend of series 825—Composite index of five coincident indicators, deflated. This index is charted on page 379 and current
data are shown on page 83.
3. New NBER business cycle turning dates, introduced in the May 1975
BCD, have now been incorporated throughout the report. These dates are listed
in appendix E.
h. Appendix G contains charts and current data for components of the
new composite index of leading indicators (formerly shown on pages vi and vii).
The old leading indexes (series 810 and 8ll) are also shown in this appendix.
IV
NEW COMPOSITE INDEXES OF COINCIDENT
AND LAGGING INDICATORS
by Victor Zarnowitz and Charlotte Boschan
As part of the comprehensive review of cyclical indicators conducted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), new
composite indexes of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging
indicators have been constructed in an effort to improve these
tools of current business analysis and forecasting.1 Major
changes in the economy and new and revised statistical data and
analytical techniques require, from time to time, reappraisals of
this as well as other systems of economic intelligence. An article
published in this report a few months ago described the historical background, objectives, and methods of the study and provided information on the composition, construction, and record
of the leading indexes.2 This paper extends the analysis to the
coincident and lagging indexes and their components.
Many economists engaged in the task of interpreting current
and predicting near-future business conditions find it useful to
know which time series have relatively pronounced and consistent cyclical characteristics, what these characteristics are
according to historical measures, and, in particular, what the
timing sequences among these series tend to be. Studies of
indicators show that the principal leading, coincident, and
lagging series represent variables that are important within the
economic system, particularly for the business-cycle processes,
and that the relationships among them are consistent with
general economic reasoning as well as empirical evidence. The
preferred indicators are series that are judged to be of high
economic significance and that are also well qualified according
to other criteria: statistical adequacy, consistency of cyclical
timing, conformity to general business expansions and contractions, smoothness, and currency. Various measures are used to
quantify these characteristics and the results are combined into
component and total scores according to a formal, detailed
weighting scheme.3 This method provides a systematic and
mostly objective and replicable way to evaluate the usefulness
of time series as leading or confirming indicators and to estimate their prognostic or diagnostic significance.
As a result of this scoring and screening, we find many indicators whose past movements tend to show certain recurrent
patterns and relationships. These observed regularities are consistent with not one but several plausible and not mutually
exclusive hypotheses about why business cycles occur and how
they develop. Indeed, there is ample empirical support for the
view that each cycle has some causes and aspects that are
unique to it, along with many that it shares with other cycles.
How individual indicators perform on a particular occasion,
therefore, depends not only on the persistent tendencies within
the system but also on the then prevailing distinct conditions
and events. No single indicator can be depended on all the time;
indeed, the need to monitor a large variety of indicators is
widely recognized by business analysts and forecasters. Combining selected indicators into composite indexes can help in
1
Major parts of the project were carried out by members of the
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), and substantial contributions were made by the staff of the Statistical Indicators Division of
BEA. This staff is under the immediate direction of Feliks Tamm, Chief
of the Division, and is under the general supervision of Beatrice N.
Vaccara, Associate Director for National Analysis and Projections. The
study benefitted from the advice, suggestions, and guidance of the BCD
Technical Committee under the chairmanship of Edgar R. Fiedler, U.S.
Department of the Treasury. The authors also gratefully acknowledge
the helpful advice of Geoffrey H. Moore of NBER and Julius Shiskin of
the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2
V. Zarnowitz and C. Boschan, "Cyclical Indicators: An Evaluation
and New Leading Indexes," Business Conditions Digest (BCD), May 1975.
3
Zarnowitz and Boschan, op. cit., pp. vi-viii.
this task, but the main reason for using such indexes is that they
are likely to produce more true and fewer false signals than any
of their individual components. This is so not only because
business cycles have multiple cases and symptoms, but also
because much of the independent measurement errors and other
"noise" in the included series are smoothed out in the index as
a whole.
PRINCIPAL COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Business cycles have been defined as recurrent sequences of
cumulative expansions and contractions in various economic
processes which are both sufficiently diffused and sufficiently
synchronized to show up as major fluctuations in comprehensive measures of employment, production, income, and
sales.4 Accordingly, turning points in these series have served as
the primary observations for estimating the reference dates of
business cycle peaks and troughs. It is obvious that the series so
used are, as a group, necessarily roughly coincident, although
occasional deviations from coincident timing do occur for the
individual components of the group.
Although we did not decide from the outset that only those
indicators which are measures of aggregate economic activity 5
should be included in the coincident index, all series actually
selected do represent such measures. With the adopted strict
requirements of proper cyclical timing at both peaks and
troughs and other attributes, it turned out that, of the many
indicators examined, only the comprehensive series on production, employment, real income, and real sales qualified as components of the overall coincident index.
Nominal aggregates, such as national income and product,
which played a large role in historical business-cycle analysis,6
were excluded from the new composite index. These indicators
are, of course, still important and in need of being continually
observed. However, it would not be helpful to include currentdollar series in the new index of coincident indicators. Their
failure to conform to the recent recessions was widespread, reflecting the intensity and persistence of contemporaneous inflation. And, unfortunately, the possibility that such recessionscum-inflation might recur cannot be ruled out.
Specifically, nominal GNP did not contract at all in the 1970
recession and had only one short decline during the 1974-75
recession (in the first quarter of 1975). Final sales (GNP minus
change in business inventories) also dipped but once, in 1958,
4
Business cycles of historical experience vary greatly in duration, but
as a rule several years are required for the cumulative movements to complete a round from peak to peak or trough to trough. For more detail
and references to literature, see V. Zarnowitz, "The Business Cycle Today:
An Introduction," in Zarnowitz, ed., The Business Cycle Today, New
York: NBER, 1972, p. 2 ff.
5
Aggregate economic activity, like so many general concepts in
economic analysis, is difficult to define precisely. It is an open concept
and can be established only by approximations in empirical research.
There is no single time series that measures it adequately, only a variety
of statistical data representing some of its different aspects. On the interpretation and uses of that notion in defining and dating business cycles,
see Arthur F. Burns and Wesley C. Mitchell, Measuring Business Cycles,
New York: NBER, 1947, pp. 3-8, 71-76.
6
In fact, they were often cast in the star roles. Thus, Burns and
Mitchell, op. cit., pp. 72-73, note that GNP at current prices or, better,
the part of GNP that "passes through the market" (i.e., excluding imputations) would be an acceptable measure of aggregate economic activity if
a satisfactory monthly or quarterly series of this type were available for
a sufficiently long time period.
and not since. Similarly, personal income had its last, mild contraction in 1957-58. Its continued rise thereafter, through the
recessions of 1960, 1970, and 1974-75, reflects to a large extent
structural changes in the economy and the labor force as well as
the workings of automatic stabilizers. Manufacturing and trade
sales declined slightly or flattened during the 1970 recession
and fell more decisively but briefly late in 1974. Only the manufacturing components of that series conformed well to the
cyclical movements in the economy after 1960; retail store sales
trended sharply upward throughout. In sum, the current-dollar
aggregates of income and sales have recently been so dominated
by upward trends reflecting the general price and wage increases
and structural and institutional changes (growth of the cyclically more stable sectors of the economy and massive transfer
payments) that they have become much less sensitive to slowdowns and declines in aggregate production and employment.
As a result, these series do not rate well on the record of their
recent cyclical performance, and even their overall scores, which
refer to the sample period 1947-70, are reduced, in some cases
seriously.
Four aggregates in real terms definitely qualify as components of the coincident index: Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey; index of industrial
production; personal income, excluding transfer payments, in
1967 dollars; and manufacturing and trade sales in 1967 dollars.
These are, in retrospect and prospect, the best coincident indicators in the following economic-process groups: I. Employment and Unemployment; II. Production and Income; and III.
Consumption and Distribution. Our analysis and scoring disclose no other appropriate choices for the index of indicators
with coincident timing at both peaks and troughs of business
cycles, in either these or other groups. This may seem surprising
in view of the high degree of simultaneity in the system of
economic relationships, the pervasiveness of cyclical movements, and the large number of alternatives considered in our
selection procedure. The explanation lies in the strictness of the
requirements to be met by the component series (nearly coincident timing and high scores for a variety of characteristics)
and by the index as a whole (comprehensive coverage with a
minimum of duplication), plus the fact that the dispersion of
cyclical timing in monthly data is quite pronounced, despite the
strong tendency for many series to move together.
Each of the four aggregates has some highly cyclical components (e.g., employees in manufacturing; production of durable
goods; wages and salaries in the goods-producing sector, i.e.,
mining, manufacturing, construction; manufacturers' shipments) and other components that are much less cyclical and
would not, by themselves, qualify for inclusion in the index.
Using the more cyclical components alone would unduly restrict the coverage and reduce the representativeness of the
index (with manufacturing being overemphasized, and increasingly so over time); also, the components of the index would
then resemble each other rather too closely. On the other hand,
using the more cyclical series along with the corresponding
aggregates would make for too much duplication.
Further discussion of the selected series and some of those
that were screened out will explain our decisions on the makeup of the index in more detail. Table 1, which shows the average timing and scores for the new and old indexes of coincident
indicators and their components, sums up an important part of
the underlying evidence and explains, in the notes, some of the
underlying procedures. Chart 1 illustrates the behavior of the
components of the indexes since 1947.
engaged in nonagricultural activities (BCD series 42), has substantially lower scores on conformity and smoothness as well as
timing (which lacks consistency because leads are mixed with
rough coincidences at peaks). Similarly, man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (BCD 48) shows too many leads at
peaks (presumably reflecting the early timing of the average
hours of work per week) to score well as a coincider. In addition, we have analyzed 12 series on the numbers of employees
or production workers in the sectors of the economy that are
particularly sensitive cyclically (manufacturing, mining, construction, transportation, public utilities, and various combinations of these industries) and found that none of these performs
better than BCD 41, which, of course, also has the advantage of
broader coverage.7
The total unemployment rate (BCD 43), a component of the
old coincident indexes, is not included in the new index. This
series is certainly one of the principal and most widely used
measures of the economy's performance.8 However, the overall
unemployment rate, like most of the component rates for individual sex, age, and race categories, tends clearly to lead at
peaks and lag at troughs of business cycles, and its timing classification is L, Lg, U (undefined for both types of turn combined). This is so because employment typically rises slowly in
both the initial and the late stages of a business expansion,
whereas the labor force grows at a fairly steady pace.9
Production and Income
The index of industrial production (BCD 47) reflects largely
changes in manufacturing output, which on the whole remains
highly sensitive to cyclical fluctuations in demand. However,
the relative importance of this sector has for some time now
been declining, whereas the cyclically more stable service industries have been gaining. Today, a downturn of industrial production will not pull the rest of the economy promptly into a
recession given the rising trend in the large services sector. Thus,
structural change in the industrial composition of GNP probably explains the shift from the closely coincident timing of the
production index at peaks in the pre-World War II period to the
short leads in the 1948-69 period. At troughs, on the other
hand, no change in timing would be expected, and none has
occurred.10 Overall, the cyclical timing of the index remains
approximately coincident, as would be expected.
Persona! income qualifies for inclusion in the composite
index if and only if it is expressed in constant dollars, as already
7
Employment in manufacturing and other goods-producing industries
has led at business cycle peaks of the period 1948-69 and, consequently,
so has (by much shorter intervals) total nonagricultural employment
through the 1950's. More recently, however, and particularly in 1974,
nonagricultural employment as a whole lagged at peaks, apparently mainly
because of labor-hoarding in the service industries. (The long lag in 1974
was perhaps induced by the special events and uncertainties of the timeenergy crisis, supply constraints, etc. Employment in goods-producing
industries started moving down gently at the beginning of 1974, total employment according to the establishment survey rose, if slowly, through
October 1974.)
8
Unemployment statistics, of course, measure economic inactivity
rather than activity, hence their conformity to business cycles is inverse.
9
The reasons why employment recovers relatively slowly lie in the
initial uncertainties about the prospects for an enduring expansion and
the concurrent rises in the average workweek and labor productivity. The
reasons why employment grows less in late than in mid-expansion stages
lie in either demand slowdowns or supply constraints, or both.
10
In 1920-37, industrial production had roughly coincident timing at
all but one of the five business cycle peaks (median, O); in 1948-69, it
had three rough coincidences and two longer leads (median, -3 months).
At troughs, roughly coincident timing was the rule in both 1921-38 and
1949-70 (with only one exception, in the earlier period).
Employment and Unemployment
The employment component in the old coincident indexes,
employees on nonagricultural payrolls (BCD series 41), is without doubt the best indicator in this group and is retained for the
new index. The aggregate from the labor force survey, persons
VI
TABLE 1. AVERAGE TIMING AND SCORES, NEW AND OLD INDEXES OF
COINCIDENT INDICATORS AND THEIR COMPONENTS, 1947-1970
Median
leads (-) or lags (+)
(in months)
Line
Number and title of series1
(1)
Scores2
Troughs
All
turns
Economic
significance
Statistical
adequacy
Timing3
Conformity
Smoothness
Currency
Total4
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
Components of New Index
_. Number of employees on
nonagricultural payrolls..
*47. Index of industrial
production
X234. Personal income, less
transfers, deflated by PCE.
56d. Manufacturing and trade
sales, deflated
-2
0
100
78
89
80
100
80
88
-3
-1/2
90
72
90
85
100
80
86
0
-1/2
90
70
74
64
100
80
78
-3
-1/2
90
65
90
75
80
53
78
+3
-2
-1/2
-1
90
90
78
70
80
30
80
100
80
80
-1
Components of BCD Indexes
(BCD 820 and 825)
10
11
12
13
14
*43. Unemployment rate, total
(inverted)
*52. Personal income
52d. Personal income, deflated
by PCE
*56. Manufacturing and trade
sales
Average, 4 series, new index
(lines 1-4) 7
Average, 5 s e r i e s , BCD 820 ( l i n e s
1, 2, 5, 6, 8 ) 8
Average, 5 series, BCD 825 (lines
1, 2, 4, 5, 7 ) 9
New index 10
BCD 820 1 *
BCD 825 x2
-7
5
6
62
56
0
-1/2
90
70
76
48
100
80
76
0
-1
90
65
92
75
80
53
79
0
-1/2
92
71
86
76
95
73
83
0
-1/2
92
73
58
70
92
75
74
0
0
0
0
-1/2
0
0
-1/2
92
92
92
92
73
71
73
73
70
92
91
92
74
88
88
88
92
100
100
100
75
73
75
75
78
87
87
88
0
-3
-2 1/2
-3
-3
-1
-1
-2
1
Numbers preceded by asterisks (*) refer to series included in the original index (BCD 820). The underlined numbers refer to series
included in the deflated index (BCD 825).
2
A11 scores are listed on the 0-to-100 scale.
3
These are scores for all turns; the separate peak and trough scores are not given. All series are scored on the assumption of
roughly coincident timing at peaks and troughs.
4
Weighted averages of scores in columns 4-9. The weights are economic significance, statistical adequacy, and conformity—16.7 percent each; timing, 26.7 percent; smoothness, 13.3 percent; currency, 10 percent. See BCD, May 1975, pp. vi-viii, for further detail.
5
When the unemployment rate is treated as leading at peaks and lagging at troughs (L, Lg), instead of roughly coincident (C) at all
turns, its timing score is 75 and its total score is 80.
6
Personal income scores better—34 for timing, 62 overall—when treated as roughly coincident at peaks and leading at troughs (C, L,
U—timing for both types of turn combined is undefined).
7
Columns 1-3, medians; columns 4-10, means.
8
Columns 1-3, medians; columns 4-10, means. Crediting series 43 and 52 for noncoincident timing (see footnotes 5 and 6) would raise
the timing score (col. 6) to 76 and the total score (col. 10) to 79.
9
Columns 1-3, medians; columns 4-10, means. Crediting series 43 for noncoincident timing (see footnote 5) would raise the timing
score (col. 6) to 84 and the total score (col. 10) to 82.
10
Entries in columns 4, 5, and 9 are the same as the corresponding entries in line 9.
lx
Entries in columns 4, 5, and 9 are the same as the corresponding entries in line 10.
12
Entries in columns 4, 5, and 9 are the same as the corresponding entries in line 11.
noted. 11 In addition, improved results are obtained by eliminating transfer payments, which contain large countercyclical
elements such as unemployment compensation. Exclusion of
transfer payments (a) adds to the amplitudes of declines in real
personal income during business contractions, which increases
the cyclical conformity of the series, and (b) makes the data
appreciably smoother.12 The effects of the deduction of trans-
fers on cyclical timing are slight (limited to the single episode of
the 1969-70 recession and somewhat uncertain). It can be
argued that one should judge the series excluding transfer payments to be of somewhat lower economic significance, since
such payments constitute an important source of income to,
and an important factor affecting the behavior of, many households. Even if we allowed for this, however, we would still find
it advisable to use real personal income excluding transfer payments (series X234) as the component of the coincident index.
The question of whether real GNP should be included in the
index was carefully examined. GNP in 1958 dollars is the most
comprehensive of the widely used measures of aggregate
economic activity, and it scores well as a coincident indicator at
both peaks and troughs. On the other hand, it is only available
quarterly and is subject to considerable revisions. An analysis of
experimental indexes that alternatively do and do not include
real GNP shows that inclusion of that series would cause
frequent revisions in the index, which, though small, are
nevertheless apt to be troublesome. Moreover, the alternative
indexes (with and without real GNP) are remarkably similar. It
1
* Specifically, the adjustment for price changes is done here by means
of the deflator for personal consumption expenditures. We tested the
possibility that using the consumer price index would lead to improvements. Whether CPI or the PCE deflator is used matters very little
empirically (the only noticeable difference is that the use of CPI results
in a slightly better conforming behavior of real personal income during
the 1970 recession), but on conceptual grounds the latter is preferable,
for this purpose, in terms of weights and coverage.
12
This shows up in a reduction of the ratio f/C", whereTis the average
month-to-month percentage change, without regard to sign, in the irregular component and C is the same for the cyclical component. 7/C
is .85 for real personal income including transfer payments; it is .74 for
real personal income excluding transfer payments.
VII
CHART 1. COMPONENTS OF THE COINCIDENT COMPOSITE INDEXES
(NOV .) (OC r.)
P
T
1 1
AUG.)
p
JULY) MAY)
P
T
II j m 1 1 1MI
I I IN M 1 1 1 1
11
(APR.)
T
N H
(APR.)IFEB.)
P
T
(DEC .) (NOV.)
P
T
11 I
11
1 1 1I n
11
1
II II 1 III 111]3 n
H
Coiiponents of the i ew ir dex:
^^
:
/
o
EE
700
600 3
500 |
400
©
0
©
-2
Q
-2
•
Q
y ^
©
56D.
-3
Ms nufac
uring and rade ;ales,
o
A
+1
^f
1967 dolla s (bi
-3
>
-6
0
o
1
.dol.
^-^^
^-
EE
t
52. Personal income (ann. rate, bil. dol.
600
*
^ —
O
0
0
+3
©
^^
-i
-6
o
©
0
43
/
I
©
0
\ J
H
W
^
^^ ^^
60
I
Unc mploy ment rate, total
-5
o
/
J
©
-1
-1
©
i •.:•
^
-•*
o
+3
o
_i
40
[perce nt-iiiverte 1 sea!e)
-2
* \\
^
©
+3
-7
o
—^%#
3
4
5 <
o
y
s+
V
+9
-
\
EE
V
+3
| | MI I I I III III
I I I I I I fff I I I 11
i
1 I I I I I i l l i n 111 • 1 1 1 III III III I I I III I I I III II .
1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.
• T h i s is not necessarily the peak but is the high for the available data.
180
160
140
120
100 «*.
manuTaciurmg ana iraae saies \u\\. U U I J
1
?
©
-3
m.
...»
CP
56.
-3
- •o
^
n
mm
-2
ol
-2
0
©
1400
1200
1000 ^
800 1
Components of the old index not in the new index:
,
100 i
80 ^
0
0
-1
120 c*
©
-1
O
\
:
•
2
CO
0
©
-l
-10
c
a
80
o
-1
•
_
-i
™
CO
-3
X234. Personal income less transfers, 1967 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.
©
0
80
75
70
65
60
55
140
120
100 f
. /
-i
w
©
0
0
/
EE
0
-3
o
-6
o
-^/
©
0
47. Index of industrial production (1967=100)
+1
*
o
O
+1
0
—^
0
9
x
o
+3
—1+
fffl
iiSi
-^-^
0
-2
©
III
0
-5
©
"I
^
41. Em, loyees on lonag iculti ral p; yrolh (mil! ions)
-3
11 1 1 i1n
3
VIM
7 CO
8
9
listed timing measures and scores refer. The new index also has
a more nearly coincident timing, with less dispersion around the
means, than either of the old indexes, but these differences are
small and have very little effect on the scores of the composites.16
was therefore concluded that the advantage of keeping the
coincident index more current and less affected by data
revisions outweighed the advantage of including a component
indicator that covered all sectors of the economy.
Consumption and Distribution
The record of manufacturers' sales (shipments) as a cyclical
indicator is considerably better than that of trade sales, but it is
nevertheless advisable to combine the two since this adds to the
breadth and diversity of coverage of the index and the resulting
aggregate still has acceptable timing and overall scores.13
Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (BCD 56)
scores slightly better than the constant-dollar series (56d) in the
period 1948-70, due mainly to the superior performance of the
former in the 1949 recession when prices fell. However, in the
1970 recession, with prices rising, it was definitely the deflated
aggregate that had the better record of cyclical timing,
conformity, and amplitude, so the more recent and presumably
more relevant experience suggested the use of sales in constant
rather than current dollars. Developments in 1973-74 confirm a
fortiori the lesson of 1970.
PRINCIPAL LAGGING INDICATORS
Indicators that lag consistently at business downturns as well
as upturns are in short supply, since lags were much less
frequent at peaks of the recent business cycles than at troughs
(whereas leads were much more frequent at peaks than at
troughs). Also, lags tended to be shorter (and leads, longer) at
the upper than at the lower turning points. These asymmetries
which are specific to the post-World War II era—the cyclical
timing distributions in earlier periods were more symmetricalare well documented and are not attributable in any significant
measure to errors in the accepted business cycle chronology.
Rather, they are related to major changes in the economy that
have altered the course of U.S. business cycles.17
Since the index to be constructed is one that would provide
consistent confirmations of both downturns and upturns in
general business activity, all of its components must lag at both
peaks and troughs and score well on that basis. This limitation is
a serious one, 18 since it causes the exclusion of some important
series which lagged systematically at either business downturns
or upturns but not at both.
The section that follows explains the selection of the
comoonents of the new lagging index and gives the reasons why
some series in the old index and others were hot included. The
series surveyed are again grouped by economic process. Table 2
provides supporting summary measures for the lagging indexes
and their components. Chart 3 shows how the individual series
behaved during the expansions and contractions of the period
1947-75.
COMPOSITE INDEXES OF COINCIDENT INDICATORS
While all components of the new coincident index have the
proper timing characteristics at both peaks and troughs, two
series from the old indexes—unemployment rate and personal
income—fail to so qualify. (See pp. vi and vii and table I, notes
5 and 6.) Consequently, the components of the new index
score, on the average, better than the components of either
BCD 820 or BCD 825 (table 1, lines 9-11).
Chart 2 compares the new coincident index with the two old
ones (BCD 820 and BCD 825). It shows that the indexes, while
generally coincident at troughs, often led by short intervals at
business cycle peaks. In fact, BCD 825 had leads at each of the
five peaks of the 1948-69 period. However, some of these
departures from coincident timing, though they must be
accepted for technical reasons and procedural consistency,
involve very small differences between values of the series in
adjacent months and probably have little significance.14
During the last recession, BCD 820, reflecting in large
measure inflation, declined only for the 6 months between
September 1974 and March 1975, whereas the new index and
BCD 825, neither of which includes any current-dollar series,
had contractions beginning in November 1973. Data on real
GNP, industrial production, employment in the goodsproducing sector, unemployment, etc., indicate that the economy reached its last cyclical peak late in 1973, not almost a
year later; so the evidence from the post-sample period
(1971-75) is unfavorable to BCD 820 as a coincident index. 15
To sum up, the new index is preferred in the light of (1) the
evaluation of the individual series included in table 1, and (2)
the events of the years that followed the period to which the
Employment and Unemployment
The best lagging indicators in this group are the long-term
unemployment rate (BCD 44) and average duration of
unemployment (series X1), both used in inverted form. Of the
two, the latter is on the whole preferable because it is more
comprehensive (referring to all unemployment and not only the
long-duration unemployment), has a somewhat more consistent
timing, and is not affected by rounding in the way the former
series is. 19 The long-term unemployment rate (persons
unemployed 15 weeks and over), a component of the old
lagging index, is therefore replaced in the new index by the
average duration of unemployment.
Several other indicators in this group were analyzed, such as
the number of those unemployed 15 weeks and over, the
number of those unemployed 27 weeks and over, and the rate
16
In fact, the direct scores for the performance of each of the three
indexes in the sample period are almost identical and would not permit
a meaningful discrimination between these constructs (table 1, lines 12-14).
17
On the relative frequencies of leads, rough coincidences, and lags in
the period 1948-70, see Zamowitz and Boschan in BCD, May 1975,
p. viii. A complete account of the evidence will be given in a separate
report.
18
As is the corresponding restriction for the index of leading indicators; see Zarnowitz and Boschan, op. cit., note 23 and app. A.
19
The series on unemployment rates often move in steps (appearing to
have periods of unchanged values separated by large discrete changes), but
this is merely the effect of rounding, the figures being carried only to the
first decimal. Because of the adopted convention of locating the specific
turning points at the end of the high and low steps, the measured timing of
the unemployment rate series is more lagging than that of the corresponding series on the numbers of the unemployed (which, like the unemployment-duration data, have no steps). But this, of course, is merely a
statistical artifact (as is the apparent greater smoothness of the rates).
13
The cyclical behavior of manufacturers' sales in constant dollars
resembles closely that of manufacturing production and hence rather well,
too, that of the total industrial production index. Inclusion in the composite index of both the broad aggregate for real sales and industrial
production in effect gives a large weight to manufacturing, and the question arises whether this weight is not in some sense excessive. We have
therefore examined the alternative of excluding manufacturers' sales
and using total wholesale and retail sales (in 1967 dollars) only. However,
the two deflated trade sales series (wholesale and retail) do not score
well enough as coincident indicators, separately or jointly, to qualify
as components of the index.
14
Note, in particular, the minuscule decline in the index before the
business peak in August 1957, which causes the index to show a lead of
5 months.
15
For a survey of the evidence, see Geoffrey H. Moore, "Slowdowns,
Recessions, and Inflation: Some Issues and Answers," Explorations in
Economic Research, vol. 2, No. 2, spring, 1975.
IX
CHART 2. COMPOSITE INDEXES OF COINCIDENT INDICATORS
.)
(NOV
P
(OC
JULY)(MAY)
r.)
P
T
1 1 11 1 1
111
111
AUG.) (APR.)
p
T
T
IM H I
11
II
M
(APR.)(FEB.)
P
I
PI I
p
11
H
:.) (Nov.)
(DEC
T
T
I I I III 1 1 11II III I I I 1 1 l]j \\
III I I I I I I
0
| Index: 1967=100
111
1
III
EE
-2
o
y
i
0
New index
of 4
80
/
indica tors
coinc ident
180
170
160
150
140
130 3
120 fi
110 £
100
90
(series 41, 47 560 X234)
0
/
EE
0
-5
o
>
>
0
0
/
/
J
-2
/
•
o
v
/
^ >
0
0
-1
o
Sv
/
I
f
O
9
0
/
Old index of 5 coincident indicators, deflateo
(series
O
0
41,4! , 4 7 ,
y
520, 560)
i
-2
y
* >
/
IP
0
€
V
/
f
y
c
S
/
vJ
EE
/
J
-5
o
-2
o
/**
p
o
0
—^^
0
-1
j
J
1
Old index of 5 coincident indicators
J
(series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56)
0
/°
0
70
sV
0
o
+3
-1
S
80 j
(
mi
II | M 1 Ml: • I I Ml III 1 II III III III I I I M i. If M III I I I in III
Ml ||
ii i Ml III
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.
60
50
0
0
7
II
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90 3
-2
-5
o
o;
150
140
130 _
120 -11
110 S
100
90
40
TABLE 2. AVERAGE TIMING AND SCORES, NEW AND OLD INDEXES
OF LAGGING INDICATORS AND THEIR COMPONENTS, 1947-1970
Median
leads (-) or lags (+)
(in months)
Line
Number and title of series1
Scores2
Peaks
Troughs
All
turns
Economic
significance
Statistical
adequacy
Timing3
Conformity
Smoothness
Currency
Total4
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
Components of New Index
XI. Average duration of unemployment
71d. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1967 dollars...
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
*72. Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial
banks
X251. Ratio, consumer installment
debt to personal income...
109. Average prime rate charged
by banks
+1
+8
+2 1/2
+3 1/2
90
78
89
90
70
89
80
80
86
64
100
53
80
51
80
80
73
+3
+3
+8 1/2
+11
+10
80
55
87
+1 1/2
+5
+3 1/2
80
60
86
81
100
100
83
+6 1/2
+7
+7
80
70
87
44
100
53
74
+3 1/2
+14
+4
90
95
85
62
100
100
87
+1
+5
+2 1/2
80
78
85
100
80
80
Components of BCD Index
(BCD 830)
10
11
12
13
14
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15 weeks and
over
*61. Business expenditures, new
plant and equipment
*71. Book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories
*67. Bank rates on short-term
business loans
Average, 6 series, new index
(lines 1-6)?
Average, 6 series, BCD 830
(lines 3, 4, 7-10) 7
New index8
BCD 8309
+1/2
+2 1/2
+1
90
80
75
66
80
53
84
5
75
+3
+4 1/2
+3 1/2
90
65
93
61
100
53
79
+3
+9
+4
90
65
86
75
80
53
77
+3
+7 1/2
+4
85
71
87
66
93
78
80
+2
+3
+1
+5
+5
+5
+3 1/2
+4
+3
85
85
85
67
71
67
85
92
90
72
88
89
87
100
100
70
78
70
78
86
84
1
Numbers preceded by asterisks (*) refer to series included in the current lagging index (BCD 830).
A11 scores are listed on the 0-to-100 scale.
These are scores for all turns; the separate peak and trough scores are not given. All series are scored on the assumption of lagging timing at peaks and at troughs.
4
Weighted averages of scores in columns 4-9. (For weights, see footnote 4 to table 1.)
5
When series 61 is treated as roughly coincident at peaks and lagging at troughs (C, Lg), instead of lagging at all turns, its timing
score is 82, and its total score is 77.
6
Columns 1-3, medians; columns 4-10, means.
7
Columns 1-3, medians; columns 4-10, means. Crediting series 61 for nonlagging behavior (see footnote 5) would raise the timing
score (col. 6) to 86 and the total score (col. 10) to 79.
8
Entries in columns 4, 5, and 9 are the same as the corresponding entries in line 11.
9
Entries in columns 4, 5, and 9 are the same as the corresponding entries in line 12.
2
3
of unemployment 27 weeks and over. None of these series
qualify for inclusion in the index, mainly because their timing
at peaks is not well defined. (They all lag consistently at
troughs.)
dollars (61 d) declined mildly in 1967, very irregularly in 1970,
and decisively after mid-1974. But the timing of series 61 d, like
that of series 61, must be classified as roughly coincident at
peaks and lagging at troughs; it cannot be unambiguously
defined for all turns. Several related series have also been found
lacking the required consistency of cyclical timing. 20
The expectation that business expenditures on plant and
equipment should be a lagging indicator rests mainly on the
presumption that they follow, often with long distributed lags,
the corresponding new investment commitments: new capital
Fixed Capital Investment
Business expenditures for new plant and equipment (BCD
61) is a component of the old index not included in the new
one. The principal reason is that its timing at business cycle
peaks has been coincident rather than lagging. Also, the cyclical
conformity of this quarterly series in current dollars has been
better in the earlier part of the period covered than in the
recent years of strong inflation. BCD 61 had no specific
contraction during the 1970 recession, its upward trend having
been interrupted for one quarter only, and it rose during the
last recession until the last quarter of 1974 when it started a
very mild decline.
Deflation strongJy reduces the upward trend in these data but
has only weak effects upon their cyclical movements, except
after 1966. Business fixed investment outlays in constant
20
these include (1) the monthly series on machinery and equipment
sales and business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial
construction put in place), separately and combined (BCD 69); (2) the
quarterly series for nonresidential fixed investment and its components,
producers' durable equipment and nonresidential structures (from GNP
accounts, in current and constant dollars); and (3) the monthly data corresponding to (2) (now being developed by BEA and available for several
recent years, which will provide important additions to the set of principal
indicators.
XI
CHART 3. COMPONENTS OF THE LAGGING COMPOSITE INDEXES
(NOV.)'(OCT.)
(JUl_Y)(MAY)
P
T
(AUG.) (APR.)
1111111111 mm i
P
T
(APR.HFEB.)
P
(DEC.) (NOV.)
T
A. Components of the new index:
+2
X1. Average duration of unemployment (weeks-inverted scale)
8
IS:
18
200
180 <*
160 ^
140 S
120 "
160
150 ^
140 ^
71D. Manufacturing and trade inventories, 1967 dollars (tail, dol.)
To
130 £
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (1967=100)
120
140
120
100 -1
60
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding (tail, dol
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
109. Average prime rate (percent)
+3
14
12
10
Ratio, consumer installment debt to personal income (percent)
m m in in MI im MI in in m m in i m i i i in in in in MI in in iii.u.uii in
1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974
NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.
XII
1975
CHART 3. COMPONENTS OF THE LAGGING COMPOSITE INDEXES—Continued
(NOV.) (OCT.)
P
T
(JULYJ(MAY)
P
T
(AUG.HAPR.)
P
T
(DEC.) (NOV.)
(APR.)(FEB.)
P
P
T
II I H I
I M J : W | M I | I M | l I I | Ml I I I I | I II | I I I [I N j l M
T
I I I Ml
III
III
III
B. Components of the old index not in the new index
44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)
0
1
2
3
4
140
120
100
61. Business expenditures, plant and equipment (ann. rate, bil. dol
80
60
40
13
12
11
10
9
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (percent)
240
200
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. dol.)
160
120 2
40
Ill M l I f f I I I I I I I I I Mi; M l I I I I I I I I I M lI I I M M I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I M i l l I I I i nM I i n
1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.
XIII
appropriations, contracts and orders. This they certainly d o , 2 1
but investment commitments reach their peaks so early relative
to business cycle peaks that the outlays that trail behind them
often decline along with, and sometimes ahead of, the economy
at large. At business cycle troughs, investment commitments
have typically much shorter leads and expenditures tend to lag
but these lags are mostly short because, in times of low capacity
utilization, orders and contracts for new capital goods are
executed more promptly.
62) scores reasonably well on the strength of long and regular
lags at the three business peaks and four troughs of the period
1949-61. In 1961-65, series 62 drifted downward; since 1966, it
has risen strongly, except for a slowdown followed by a brief
and shallow decline in 1971-72. Thus, unit labor costs turned
down during the first two recessions covered (in 1948-49 and
1953-54), but rose during each of the four following recessions;
they declined in each of the four recoveries of the 1950's and
1960's, but merely flattened in the recovery of 1971-72.
Finally, BCD 62 increased sharply in 1973-75, particularly
during the recession, and gave the first tentative indication of a
decline only in August 1975. The two related quarterly series
(unit labor cost for the total private economy, BCD 63, and
labor cost per unit of real corporate product, BCD 68) behave
similarly. 24
Clearly, the historical pattern of cyclical behavior of unit
labor costs has recently been distorted by the effects of
persistent and rapid inflation, with strong pressures for higher
money wage rates continuing even while the productivity of
labor (output per man-hour) diminished markedly as in
1973-74. Labor as well as property incomes typically share in
the inflationary increases in the value of output, so that major
inflations, whatever their causes, will most of the time see
money wages rising faster than productivity, which implies
rising nominal unit labor costs.
What happens to real labor cost per unit of output depends
on relative changes in prices, wages, and productivity of labor,
and on how these changes are perceived by, and influence the
decisions of, the employers and employees. The cyclical
behavior of this variable is not very regular, though a broad
tendency to lag would be expected.25
Unit labor costs, then, have definitely become less sensitive
cyclically in recent years as inflation grew stronger and persisted
through periods of deteriorating and poor, as well as improving
and good, business conditions. But this important cost factor
retains its basic character and function as a lagging indicator,
although its reactions to cyclical developments in the 1970's
have been considerably more muted and delayed than before.
Series 62 still qualifies as a component of the lagging index, and
its inclusion broadens the coverage and improves the performance of the index.
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Total manufacturing and trade inventories (on hand) tend to
lag at both peaks and troughs.2 2 This applies to the book-value
series (BCD 71) as well as to the corresponding aggregate in
constant dollars (71 d). During the 1948-70 period, deflation
had very little effect on these data. As illustrated by the scores,
both series conformed well to the business cycles covered,
except that neither declined during the 1970 recession. However, the sharp acceleration of inventory growth in 1973-74 was
apparently due chiefly to rising prices; the increases in the
constant-dollar series remained fairly steady. Although adjustments of inventories for the effects of inflation are, of course,
known to be difficult and of uncertain quality, the new price
deflators now available from the Commerce Department are
substantially improved and considered adequate. They allow for
the appropriate lag patterns and the characteristic LIFO-FIFO
proportions in the different industries. The new deflated series
71 d is therefore regarded as the proper replacement for the
book-value aggregate (BCD 71) used in the old lagging index.
Taking ratios of manufacturing and trade inventories to the
corresponding sales figures is a different way in which to
express inventories in real terms. The series of simple inventory-to-sales ratios (BCD 851) has much longer lags than
deflated inventories but scores about as well on timing; however,
BCD 851 is definitely inferior to 71 d with regard to smoothness
and conformity. Since inventories and sales should be somewhat
differently deflated to take account of lags in the pricing
process, we have also experimentally constructed and examined
a series of ratios of inventories in constant dollars to sales in
constant dollars, but the results were not significantly different
from those obtained with the simple ratios.
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Unit labor cost is one of the central variables in a major
hypothesis about the causes of business cycles; it has received
much attention in research, which established its historical
tendency to lag at business cycle turns and related that
tendency to the cyclical behavior of wage rates and productivity
of labor.23 The monthly series included in the old index (BCD
Money and Credit
We retain unchanged from the old index the aggregate of
commercial and industrial loans outstanding (weekly reporting
large commercial banks—BCD 72). This series represents the
most cyclical component of total bank loans, reflects in large
measure the financing of business inventories (itself a lagging
indicator), and is available frequently and promptly. It flattened rather than declined with a lag in response to the 196061 recession; at other times, it lagged consistently at troughs
and also, with one exception (in 1948), at peaks. Its record as
21
For detailed historical evidence, see Zarnowitz, Orders, Production,
and Investment. New York: NBER, 1973, pt. III.
22
T h e record ot manufacturers' unfilled orders indicates that
inventories on order, i.e./stocks of goods ordered for further processing or
resale but not yet received, have earlier timing, leading at peaks and lagging
or, less often, coinciding at troughs. This would be expected, since the
on-order part of inventories can be adjusted more promptly to desired
target levels than the on-hand part. The new composite index of leading
indicators includes a series on net change in inventories on hand and on
order, in deflated and smoothed form. See Zarnowitx and Boschan, op.
cit.f p. ix.
23
Wesley C. Mitchell, Business Cycles, Berkeley: University of
California Press, 1913 (part 3, reprinted in 1959 as Business Cycles and
Their Causes). For a recent application and appraisal of Mitchell's theory,
see Geoffrey H. Moore, "Productivity, Costs, and Prices: New Light From
an Old Hypothesis," Explorations in Economic Research, vol. 2, No. 1,
winter 1975. It is of interest to add that the analysis of cyclical aspects of
unit labor costs has been largely disregarded in the more recent writings on
inflation, although the treatment of the role of wages and productivity
changes in that literature is extensive. (See Martin Bronfenbrenner and F.
D. Holzman, "Survey of Inflation Theory," American Economic Review,
September 1963.)
24
It may be noted, however, that they show smaller and shorter
declines in the early 1960's and also more continuous rises in 1971-72. In
1975, BCD 68 was the first one to turn down (in the second quarter).
25
A general formula for nominal unit labor costs is NULC = Wh/y,
where W = average hourly money compensation of employees, h = total
number of hours worked, and y = real output produced. Deflation with
the wage rate (division by W) produces one type of real unit labor costs,
RULC. = h/y, which is the reciprocal of output per man-hour. Deflation
with the price level P produces another type, RULC = Wh/Py, which is a
labor share series (as approximated by the quarterly estimates of compensation as percent of national income, BCD 280A, or as percent of GNP).
RULC has a strong downward trend, RULC- is relatively stable in the
long run; both lag by very long and variable intervals.
XIV
(lines 11 and 12). In addition to these assessments of the individual series, the evaluation of the 1948-70 record of the composite indexes themselves (lines 13 and 14) also supports the
decisions made in the process of deriving the new lagging index.
The cyclical movements of the component lagging indicators
can be examined in chart 3 which identifies their turning dates.
Chart 4 does the same for the new and old lagging indexes.
It shows that the new index lagged at all business cycle turns
covered, while BCD 830 had one deviation from the lagging
pattern (coincidence at the 1948 peak). Also, the timing
observations at both peaks and troughs are less dispersed for
the new than for the old index.
a lagging indicator is good, and it is not bettered by attempts
to deflate the loans.2 6
The other important series in the credit group—consumer
installment debt (BCD 66)-can be viewed as a cumulation of
the net credit changes which equal the differences between
credit extensions and repayments. Consumer credit extensions
tend to have roughly coincident timing, while repayments
show lagging responses (often only retardations) to business
recessions.27 Total installment credit outstanding had a strong
upward trend, particularly in the early post-World War II years
including the 1948-49 recession, and reacted to the later business contractions sluggishly with very mild declines (in 1970
merely with a slowdown). However, much better results are
obtained with the ratio of consumer installment debt to personal income (series X251), which shows definite declines
with lagged timing in connection with each of the business
recessions since 1953. 28 Using this ratio represents the most
satisfactory method we could find of allowing for the trend
(reflecting, among other factors, inflation) and bringing out
the cyclical element in consumer credit. The inclusion of the
ratio of consumer installment debt to personal income in the
composite index of lagging indicators significantly improves
both the coverage and performance of the index.
The quarterly series of bank rates on short-term business
loans (BCD 67), a component of the old index of laggers, is
now replaced by the monthly series of the average prime rate
charged by banks (BCD 109). The two indicators behave very
similarly, but BCD 109 has the maximum score for currency
and BCD 67, being quarterly, rates poorly on this criterion.
In the past (before 1966 and notably in the early 1960's), the
average prime rate remained unchanged for long periods of
time, which accounts for some of its lags that were especially
long at troughs; but the bank rates were also approximately
constant in the same periods.
Since the late 1940's, interest rates generally have become
much more sensitive to cyclical influences, as evidenced by
large increases in the amplitudes of their cyclical movements
and a gradual reduction in their lags at peaks and troughs in
business activity 2 9 Interest rates may also be growing increasingly sensitive to price-level changes, reflecting the intensification and greater variability of inflation. It is therefore possible that the tendency of certain interest rates to lag at business
cycle turns will significantly diminish in the future. 30
THE SYSTEM OF LEADING, COINCIDING AND LAGGING
INDICATORS
The previous discussion of the revised index of leading indicators31 and the present discussion of coinciding and lagging
indicators permit us now to examine the revised system as a
whole.
Let us briefly review the rationale for the selection of the
indicators. The timing characteristics of the leading indicators
and their forecasting function are easily understood. These
indicators represent anticipations and early links in the
sequences of business decisions, early stages of the investment
and production processes, and measures of flows contributing
to changes in the levels of economic stocks. The tendency of
these series and their composites to lead makes them obvious
warning signals and tools for the forecasting of changes in
general business conditions. Their main shortcomings for
this purpose are their hypersensitivity and the considerable
variation in length of their leads, particularly before business
cycle peaks. Also, to the extent that the warning signs are
heeded by policymakers, the forecasting effectiveness becomes impaired as countercyclical policies are implemented.
The roughly coincident indicators are broad comprehensive
measures which tend to summarize the state of actual business
activity from the input and the output side. They not only
confirm or invalidate expectations based on the behavior of
the leading indicators, but also give some precision to the
timing of the broad swings in economic activity. It is the
behavior of the coinciders which should firm up policy decisions that the leaders could only suggest.
The first function of the lagging (Lg) indicators is to confirm
or refute the inferences derived from the behavior of the
coincident (C) indicators. Perhaps more important for forecasting purposes, however, is the characteristic lead of the
laggers relative to the opposite turns of the leaders (L). Many
lagging indicators, such as the interest rates charged by banks,
unit labor costs, inventories carried in manufacturing and
trade, and business loans outstanding, measure or reflect the
cost of doing business; it is mainly for this reason that these
series, when inverted, lead most of the other important indicators (not only the coinciders but often also the leaders).
For example, declines in inventories and interest rates during
a business contraction pave the way for an upturn in new
orders and then in the output of materials, etc., by making
business operations less expensive and, hence, potentially
more profitable, and also by depleting stocks relative to the
current production and sales requirements.
Chart 5 and table 3 show the sequences of turning points of
the three new composite indexes and the intervals between
them. It is clear that, on the whole, the system worked well: no
single turning point occurred out of sequence, i.e., the laggers
never turned before the coinciders, nor the coinciders before
the leaders, nor the leaders before the laggers of the previous
episode. The cycle-to-cycle dispersion of the time intervals
between the successive turns in the leading-coincident-lagging
sequence was relatively moderate, except for the intervals from
COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LAGGING INDICATORS
Table 2 shows that the components of the new lagging index
have, on the average, higher scores than the components of the
old lagging index (BCD 830) with respect to statistical
adequacy, timing, smoothness, and currency, and hence overall
26
Moreover, it is not clear how to deflate this series in a meaningful
way, i.e., what prices to use, with what timing, etc. Nor is there a monthly
business income series to which the loans could be related (as we relate
consumer debt to personal income).
"^feee Paul W. McCracken, James C. T. Mao, and Cedric Fricke,
Consumer Installment Credit and Public Policy, Michigan Business Studies,
vol. XVII, No. 1, 1965, and Philip A. Klein, The Cyclical Timing of Consumer Credit, 1920-67, Occasional Paper 113, New York: NBER, 1971.
28
t h e ratio series, like BCD 66, failed to decline in 1948-49. The rapid
increase in consumer debt during the late 1940's and early 1950's was
probably due mainly to the huge backlog of unsatisfied demand for automobiles and other durable consumer goods that originated in the wartime
shortages.
29
The lags have decreased much more for long-term than for short-term
interest rates, and for the latter primarily at peaks rather than at troughs.
See Phillip Cagan, Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Interest Rates,
Occasional Paper 100, New York: NBER, 1966.
30
However, bank loan rates usually turn later than the active
open-market rates (such as the Treasury bill and bond rates) which tend to
have roughly coincident timing at peaks and lag at troughs. These sequences, in which the rates of negotiated markets turn last, would be expected
to persist. See Cagan, op. cit.
31
XV
Zarnowitz and Boschan, op. cit.
CHART 4. COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LAGGING INDICATORS
(NOV.) (OCT.)
P
(JULY)(MAY)
P
T
T
(AUG.UAPK.)
P
T
1 1 1 111 111 111 IN Ml 111
(A PK.) (FEB.)
P
T
II 1 1 1 1\\
11
(DEC.) (NOV.)
P
1 1111 1 1 i1n 1 1 1 II
III
T
[TTT l l l
ndex: 1967=1001
III III III
220
200
180
160
+2
140
New index of 6 lagging indicators (series XI, 71D, 62,72, X251,109)
v^
120
+7
100
240
o
+3
220
200
o
+5
180
180
140
120
Old index of 6 lagging indicators (series 4 4 , 6 1 , 6 2 , 6 7 , 7 1 , 7 2 )
100
80
+1
+1
/ v/
+3
60
SKJ
40
+5
1!
III
Ml 111
II II in
III III II III III
II \\\ M
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.
XVI
CHART 5. NEW COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LEADING, COINCIDENT, AND LAGGING INDICATORS
(NOV.) (OCT.)
P
T
(JULY)(MAY)
P
T
(AUG.) (APR.)
P
T
(DEC.) (NOV.)
(APR.)(FEB.)
P
T
P
T
130
120
110
100
*
3
90 1
80 •»
70
180
160
140
120
^
2
3
CO
100
220
200
180
160
140
120
as
100 3
80 £
40
130
120
110 "*
Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
100 1
90
80
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974
NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads ( - ) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.
• T h i s is not necessarily the peak but is the high tor the available data.
XVII
1975
TABLE 3. SEQUENCES OF TURNING POINTS IN THE COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LEADING (L),
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT (C), AND LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS, 1948-75
Dates of associated turning points i n indexes L, C, and Lg
Line
1
Dates of business c y c l e
turns (peak-trough-peak)
11/48-10/49-7/53
7/53-5/54-8/57
8/57-4/58-4/60
4/60-2/61-12/69
12/69-11/70-11/73 2
ll/732-3/752
3
4
5
6
Peak
of L
Peak
of C
Peak
of Lg
Trough
of L
Trough
of C
Trough
of Lg
Peak
of L
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
1
l/48
3/53
9/55
4/59
1/69
6/73
2/49
9/53
12/57
7/60
2/70
12/74
10/48
7/53
3/57
4/60
10/69
11/73
10/49
5/54
4/58
2/61
11/70
3
3/75
6/49
11/53
2/58
12/60
10/70
3
2/75
3/53
9/55
4/59
1/69
6/73
3/50
10/54
8/58
7/61
6/71
3
6/75
Time i n t e r v a l s between the successive turning points
( i n months)
7
8
9
10
11
12
11/48-10/49-7/53
7/53-5/54-8/57
8/57-4/58-4/60
4/60-2/61-12/69
12/69-11/70-11/73 2
ll/732-3/752
13
14
15
Mean
Median
Standard d e v i a t i o n
Lg (peaks)
t o L(troughs)
C t o Lg
(peaks)
L to C
(peaks)
9
4
18
12
9
5
9.5
9
4.6
4
2
9
3
4
13
5.8
4
3.9
L to C
(troughs)
C t o Lg
(troughs)
4
2
2
5
8
2
4
6
2
2
1
1
5
5
4
5
7
3
3.8
3
2.2
2.7
2
1.8
4.8
5
1.2
Lg (troughs)
t o L(peaks)
5
6
36
11
8
90
24
33.8
24
29.8
Duration
of sequence 4
62(56)
30(49)
43(32)
117(116)
53(47)
61(60)
53(49)
30.0(29.1)
lf
This is not necessarily the peak but is the high for the available data (which began in 1948).
0fficial business cycle peak and trough dates for the current cycle have not yet been designated. The tentative dates of November
1973 (peak) and March 1975 (trough) used in this table are based on the turning points in the composite index of coincident indicators.
3
Tentative, subject to revisions in recent data.
4
The first figure represents the sum of the corresponding entries in columns 1-6. The second figure (in parentheses) represents
the duration of the corresponding business cycle measured from peak to peak.
disregards the extra decline in the leading index from August 1950 through November 1951.
disregards the extra decline in the leading index from March 1966 through January 1967.
2
the troughs of the lagging index (Lg) to the peaks of the leading
index (L), whose great variability in length reflect the variability
in length of business expansions (table 3, col. 6). Thus, it is
apparent that the lagging index functions well as a confirmer
of the coinciders at both peaks and troughs, but its value as a
forecaster of the opposite turn of the leaders is essentially
confined to its peaks.
A measure likely to produce more stable and predictively
useful relationships than the inverted lagging index is the ratio
of the index of roughly coincident indicators to the index of
lagging indicators (C/Lg), suggested by Geoffrey Moore.32
The turning points in the C/Lg ratio will lead those of the
coincident index if the movement of the latter decelerates
before its turning point while the lagging index continues to
move at a faster rate. In addition, there are some economic
reasons for expecting the C/Lg ratio to have early cyclical
timing. For example, a downturn in the ratio of sales (C)
to inventories (Lg) should have an adverse effect on, and
may anticipate the downturn in, new orders (L). Similarly,
a slowdown in the rise of output (C) combined with a continuing strong rise in unit labor cost and other costs (such
as those associated with growing inventories and business indebtedness, which all lag) will depress profits and new investment commitments (L).
The advantage of the derived C/Lg index as a forecasting
tool is twofold. First, it provides an additional comprehensive
leading series, based on series which are entirely different from
those included in the composite index of leaders. Second, if
its turning points do indeed precede those in the composite
leading index, the ratio has considerable supplementary forecasting value. Chart 5 shows that the cyclical turns in the
C/Lg ratio preceded the turns in general business activity on all
but one occasion. The leads of the C/Lg ratio at business cycle
peaks were long, varying from 12 to 35 months; the leads at
troughs were much shorter, varying from 0 to 5 months. Thus,
the C/Lg index can be useful as an independent leading
indicator. However, the C/Lg ratio does not give reliable early
signals anticipating the movements of the leading index (L): in
1948-70, C/Lg led the leading index at only four turns and
lagged at two. Also, the scores of the C/Lg ratio are significantly
lower than those of the leading index, although they are on the
whole about as high as the average scores of the individual
components of leading index. 33
In summary, it should be pointed out again that, for the
period 1948-70, the turning points of the revised indexes are
very similar in timing to those of the old indexes. The decisive
advantage of the revised indexes is that they do not lose their
indicator characterisitcs during periods of pronounced inflation
and that their behavior is somewhat improved by the exclusion
of indicators with mixed timing, i.e., indicators which have
different timing characteristics at peaks and at troughs of
business cycles.
We hope and expect that continuous research as well as
careful and perceptive monitoring of the indicator system will
lead to further improvements in the behavioral characteristics
and the forecasting usefulness of that system.
32
See his "Generating Leading Indicators From Lagging Indicators,"
Western Economic Journal, vol. V I I , No. 2, June 1969, pp. 135-144.
XVIII
33
The scores being compared are tabulated below. The scores for economic significance, statistical adequacy, and currency are based in each
case on the mean scores of the individual series used in the computation of
the particular index (C/Lg or L).
Economic
significance
88
81
C/Lg
L
Average, 12
leading series . 81
Statistical
adequacy
71
73
Timing
79
84
Conformity
29
78
73
82
58
Smooth- Currency Total
ness
73
100
76
82
100
76
70
76
74
APPENDIXES
A. Titles, Sources, and Descriptions of Component Series
Retail sales include total receipts from customers after
deductions of refunds and allowances for merchandise returned
by customers. Receipts from repairs and from other services to
customers, sales for resale, and sales taxes and excise taxes are
also included.
Data for all sectors are adjusted for trading days, length of
calendar month, and seasonal variation.
The deflation of manufacturing and trade sales is performed
by the National Income and Wealth Division of BEA. The
individual 3- and 4-digit components of manufacturers' shipments are deflated separately using appropriate wholesale price
indexes combined with 1972 product class shipment weights.
Wholesale sales are deflated by kind of business using appropriate wholesale price indexes combined with 1967 Census sales
weights. Retail sales by kind of business are deflated separately
using a combination of wholesale price indexes, consumer price
indexes, and prices paid by farmers. The selection of price data
and the weights for the component price indexes are based on
sales by product line from the 1967 Census.
4 1 . Employees on Nonagricultural Payrolls, Establishment
Survev—Department of Labor. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Data for this series are collected from a sample of establishments in all nonagricultural activities, including government.
The data relate to the payroll period which includes the 12th
of the month and include full-time, part-time, temporary, and
permanent workers. Also included are workers who are on
paid leave (sick, holiday, vacation, etc.) and persons who
worked only a part of the specified pay period. Persons on the
payroll of more than one establishment are counted each time
they are reported. Excluded from the statistics are persons in
a nonpay status for the entire period due to layoff, strike,
leave without pay, etc.; proprietors; self-employed and unpaid
family workers; domestic household workers; and noncivilian
government workers.
An establishment is defined as an economic unit which
produces goods or services—such as a factory, mine, or store.
It is generally at a single physical location and is engaged
predominantly in one type of economic activity. Where a
single physical location encompasses two or more distinct and
separate activities, these activities are treated as separate establishments provided that separate payroll records are available.
The data are seasonally adjusted.
X234. Personal
47. Index of Industrial Production—Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System.
This series measures changes in the physical volume or
quantity of output of manufacturers, mineral industries, and
electric and gas utilities. It reflects output changes at all stages
within manufacturing and mining industries (including intermediate and final products). The production of farms, the
construction industry, transportation, and various trade and
service industries are excluded. The index includes production
at government-owned and -operated plants and shipyards and
atomic energy manufacturing activity. The data are seasonally
adjusted.
56D. Manufacturing
and
Trade
Sales,
1967
Dollars-
Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and
Bureau of the Census.
This series measures the monthly volume, in 1967 dollars, of
sales of manufacturing, merchant wholesalers', and retail trade
establishments. It differs from final sales in that no allowance is
made for the fact that the same items are sold successively by
manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers.
Manufacturers'sales (shipments) include receipts, billings, or
the value (less discounts, returns, and allowances) of products
shipped; shipments for export, for domestic use, and to foreign
subsidiaries of domestic firms; and shipments from one establishment to another in the same company. Shipments of foreign
subsidiaries are excluded.
Sales of merchant wholesalers include: (1) Sales of merchandise and receipts from repairs or other services to customers
after deducting returns, allowances, and discounts; (2) sales of
merchandise for others on a commission basis; and (3) local and
State sales taxes and Federal excise taxes. These data are
collected from the same sample of merchant wholesale establishments and in the same survey as are data on merchant
wholesalers' inventories. (See description for manufacturing and
trade inventories, series 71 d.)
Income
Less Transfer
Payments,
1967
Dollars—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This series measures personal income (in 1967 dollars)
received by individuals, unincorporated businesses, and nonprofit institutions, excluding transfer payments.
Personal income represents the sum of labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends,
personal interest, and transfer payments, minus contributions to
social insurance. Capital gains and losses are excluded. Most of
the income is in monetary form, but there are important
exceptions—chiefly the net rental value of owner-occupied
homes, the value of food produced and consumed on farms, and
the value of financial services received by individuals and
nonprofit institutions without explicit payment.
Transfer payments consist of income received by persons,
generally in monetary form, for which no services are rendered
currently. It includes government transfer payments and business transfer payments. Government transfer payments consist
of payments under social security (including Medicare), State
unemployment insurance, railroad retirement and unemployment insurance, government retirement programs, veterans'
benefits (including veterans' life insurance proceeds), direct
relief, food stamps, payments to nonprofit institutions other
than for work done under research and development contracts,
and a few other minor items. Business transfer payments
comprise corporate gifts to nonprofit institutions, consumer
bad debts, and a few other minor payments.
This series is computed from seasonally adjusted components and is deflated by the National Income and Wealth Division
of BEA using the implicit price deflator for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). The deflator is available monthly
(unpublished) from 1968 to date. Prior to 1968, the monthly
values are obtained by interpolating the quarterly implicit PCE
deflator by the movements in the consumer price index.
X1.
Average (Mean) Duration of Unemployment in Weeks-
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This series measures the average length of time, in weeks
during which persons classified as unemployed had been continuously looking for work or, in the case of persons on layoff,
XIX
since the termination of the most recent employment. A period
of 2 or more weeks during which a person was employed or
ceased looking for work is considered to break the continuity
of the present period of seeking work. Average duration of
unemployment is an arithmetic mean computed from a distribution by single weeks of unemployment. The data are
seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
72. Commercial and Industrial Loans Outstanding, Weekly
Reporting Large Commercial Banks—Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System.
This series measures the average weekly (Wednesdays) dollar
amount of business loans outstanding each month. Included are
data on all loans for commercial and industrial purposes except
those secured by real estate. Loans to financial institutions and
loans for the purpose of purchasing or carrying securities are
excluded.
The data are based on reports to the Federal Reserve System
by approximately 330 banks. Included in the reports are data
on the amount of commercial and industrial loans outstanding
as of Wednesday of each week and the amount of loans sold
outright during each week to their own subsidiaries, foreign
branches, holding companies, other affiliates, and to other
institutions except banks.
For BCD, a weekly series is derived by summing the amount
of commercial and industrial loans and the amount of loans
sold outright as reported to the Federal Reserve System. The
monthly series is the arithmetic mean of weekly data. The
data beginning with November 1968 are seasonally adjusted
by means of the Census X-11 seasonal adjustment program.
Prior to that date, the National Bureau of Economic Research
seasonally adjusted the data.
62. Index of Labor Cost Per Unit of Output, Total Manufacturing (Ratio of index of compensation of employees in
manufacturing to index of industrial production, manufacturing)—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System.
This series measures the relationship between the volume of
production of manufactured goods and the cost of the labor
involved in that production.
The compensation of employees, manufacturing, component
(labor cost) measures the income received by persons in an
employee status as remuneration for their work, including
(1) wage and salary disbursements—the compensation of employees commonly regarded as wages and salaries, including
compensation of executives, commissions, payment in kind,
bonuses, and tips; and (2) supplements to wages and salaries —
or fringe benefits, including supplements such as employers'
contributions to social insurance; private pension, health, and
welfare funds; compensation for injuries; military reserve pay;
etc.
Industrial production index, manufacturing, is a measure
of the changes in physical output of manufacturing in the
United States. It includes 11 major groups of durable goods
and 10 major groups of nondurable goods. It also includes
measures of the manufacturing activity of the Department
of Defense (durable goods) and the Atomic Energy Commission
(nondurable goods).
In computing labor cost per unit of output, seasonally
adjusted data on compensation of employees (wage and salary
disbursements plus supplements to wages and salaries) are
converted to an index (1967=100) and divided by the index
of manufacturing production (1967=100) to yield the index
of labor cost per unit of output. This index is seasonally
adjusted by the X-11 version of the Census seasonal adjustment program.
109. Average Prime Rate Charged by Banks—Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
This series indicates the interest rate that banks charge
their most credit-worthy business customers on short-term
loans. The prime rate is the base from which rates charged on
loans to other business customers are scaled upward. The
prime rate is not a sensitive rate that fluctuates daily in response to short-term changes in supply and demand as measured
by a national market. Rather, its movements tend to be
infrequent and to lag appreciably behind changes in the general
business situation and in open market money rates.
The data for this series are monthly averages computed by
multiplying each prime rate in effect during a month by the
number of days it was in effect, summing these products, and
dividing by the total number of days. If two prime rates are
reported for a single day, the rate indicating initial movement
is disregarded due to the usually small number of banks participating. Data are not seasonally adjusted.
71D. Manufacturing and Trade Inventories, 1967 DollarsDepartment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and
Bureau of the Census.
This series measures the end-of-month value, in 1967 dollars,
of stocks on hand in manufacturing, retail, and merchant
wholesalers' establishments. For the manufacturing sector,
inventories are reported as valued by the manufacturers. All
manufacturing-associated inventories, regardless of stage of
fabrication, are included. The inventories of retailers and
merchant wholesalers are valued at cost. Goods held on a
consignment basis by wholesalers are excluded.
For the period since January 1958, each of the components
of manufacturing and trade inventories is deflated separately.
Manufacturers' inventories are deflated at the 2-digit SIC
level, and wholesalers' inventories of durable and nondurable
goods are deflated separately, as are durable and nondurable
goods inventories of retailers. The deflators are based on combinations of wholesale price indexes with appropriate lag
structures developed from information on stock/sales ratios
and on inventory accounting practices. The deflation is done
by the National Income and Wealth Division of BEA. (Prior
to 1958, deflation was performed at the aggregate level using
a lagged 4-month moving average of the wholesale price index
for industrial commodities.) The components are seasonally
adjusted prior to the application of their individual deflators.
X251. Ratio, Consumer Installment Debt to Personal
Income—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System.
This series measures the dollar volume of consumer installment credit outstanding at the end of each month per dollar
(and/or dollar value) of monthly personal income.
Consumer installment credit measures all short- and intermediate-term credit used to finance the purchase of commodities and services for personal consumption or to refinance debts
originally incurred for such purposes. Included is all consumer
credit (including revolving credit and budget and coupon
accounts) held by financial institutions and retail outlets that is
scheduled to be repaid in two or more installments. Credit
extended to governmental agencies and nonprofit or charitable
organizations, as well as credit extended to businesses or
individuals exclusively for business purposes, is excluded.
The term "credit" refers to an advance of purchasing power
that could be used to obtain goods and services, or an advance
of goods and services in exchange for a promise to pay later.
Consumption refers to the process of using up goods and
services as an end in itself rather than as a stage in production.
Basic data for this component are compiled by the Federal
Reserve System and seasonally adjusted by the Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
xx
Personal income measures the income received by individuals, unincorporated businesses, and nonprofit institutions
(including pension, health, welfare, and trust funds). This
income represents the sum of labor income, proprietors'
income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest,
and transfer payments, minus personal contributions to social
insurance. Capital gains and losses are excluded. Most personal
income is in monetary form; however, there are important
XXI
exceptions—chiefly the net rental value of owner-occupied
homes, the value of food produced and consumed on farms, and
the value of financial services received by individuals and
nonprofit institutions without explicit payment.
The components of personal income are seasonally adjusted
separately (except where seasonal patterns do not exist or are
not well defined) and when aggregated yield a seasonally
adjusted total.
B. Data for New Series and Indexes
Monthly
Quarterly
Year
Annual
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
56D.
1945
1946
1947 . .
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951. . .
1952...
1953. . .
195U. . .
43,5 91
44,318
44,328
52,133
49,799
55,875
53,205
43,611
44,275
45,249
50,766
50,347
56,650
53,832
43,937
44,140
45,849
49,869
50,043
57,258
53,540
1955...
1956...
1957. . .
1958. . .
1959. . .
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
57,456
60,917
62,340
58,177
62,026
66,092
62,495
68,426
70,743
75,630
57,939
60,437
62,573
57,326
63,038
65,899
62,645
68,383
71,822
75,679
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971. . .
1972...
1973. . .
1974...
1975. . .
80,913
87,389
89,093
92,807
96,565
96,003
95,802
103,022
113,828
115,120
101,286
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1 Q
SALES, L967 DOLLARS
(MILLION DOLLARS)
III Q
II Q
IV Q
MANUFACTURING AND TRADE
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
49,006
50,677
57,249
53,D77
43,57H
43,309
47,515
49,435
51,248
56,996
53,068
44,131
44,447
49,464
49,072
51,35 9
56,324
53,766
44,515
43,159
53,159
48,101
50,263
57,089
53,581
44,608
44,081
53,913
49,313
51,297
55,936
53,254
44,579
44,944
50,586
49,283
53,040
55,458
5 3,531
44,626
43,301
49,524
49,629
54,767
55,200
53,734
44,439
43,871
47,993
49,503
5 4,562
53,853
55,336
44,789
43,490
50,693
49,005
55,563
52,937
56,633
131,139
132,733
135,426
152,768
150,189
169,783
160,577
131,842
131,725
143,367
147,513
153,284
170,569
160,811
133,702
132,184
157,658
146,697
154,600
168,483
160,366
133,854
130,662
148,210
148,137
164,892
161,990
165,70 3
530,537
527,304
584,661
595,115
622,965
670,825
647,457
5 9,089
60,694
62,132
56,535
63,761
65,364
63,713
69,341
71,846
75,350
59,720
60,836
61,181
56,327
64,715
65,723
63,305
69,486
72,501
7 6,640
59,973
60,662
60,963
56,528
65,410
64,788
64,258
69,442
72,143
77,575
59,965
60,932
61,333
57,470
65,502
64,737
65,362
69,123
72,851
77,330
60,189
58,324
61,085
58,126
65,323
64,518
64,696
69,474
73,957
78,392
59,952
60,221
61,497
59,092
63,361
64,140
66,146
69,956
73,137
77,986
60,936
60,7 69
60,685
59,469
63,130
64,759
66,473
69,870
60,694
61,264
60,394
60,331
63,263
64,477
67,29 5
70,532
74,607
77,685
61,183
61,568
59,597
61,281
63,096
63,675
67,948
71,460
73,681
78,641
61,259
62,15 6
58,285
59,943
64,801
63,610
68,171
70,307
75,120
81,114
174,484
182,048
187,045
172,038
188,825
197,355
188,853
206,150
214,411
226,659
179,658
182,430
183,477
170,325
195,627
195,248
192,925
208,051
217,495
231,545
181,077
179,314
183,267
176,687
191,814
193,417
197,315
209,300
220,718
235,645
183,136
184,988
178,276
181,55 5
191,160
191,762
203,414
212,299
223,408
237,440
71S,355
72,1,780
732,065
700,605
767,426
777,782
782,507
835,800
876,032
931,289
81,223 82,695
87,582 88,916
88,588 88,982
93,146 93,684
97,168 96,999
96,383 95,501
97,105 97,886
102,622 104,262
114,801 115,040
114,863 115,054
102,174 99,870
82,831
8 8 , 3 60
89,150
93,526
97,431
94,Rf)3
98,269
104,729
114,052
114,528
101,38 2
82,221
87,952
89,193
9 4 , 3 68
97,060
95,624
99,249
105,613
114,412
114,370
101,917
82,550
89,074
89,640
94,896
96,997
95,852
99,810
105,225
113,253
113,228
102,805
84,083
88,155
89,297
96,275
97,017
96,205
99,022
105,403
115,622
113,542
103,877
84,227
88,704
90,297
93,904
97,631
96,045
100,395
107,690
113,469
113,097
105,079
83,339
89,322
90,534
95,997
85,081
89,557
89,373
96,970
98,973
93,978
100,178
109,798
115,632
109,379
8 6,25 6
8 9,110
91,242
96,925
97,283
92,549
101,953
110,825
116,827
105,651
86,453
89,044
92,771
96,054
96,717
95,082
101,473
111,633
114,166
101,699
244,831
263,887
266,663
279,637
290,732
287,887
290,793
309,906
343,669
345,037
303,330
247,602
265,386
267,983
282,790
291,488
286,079
297,328
315,567
341,717
342,126
306,104
251,649
266,181
270,128
286,176
292,911
287,916
299,895
320,907
342,602
337,557
313,995
257,790
267,711
273,386
289,949
292,973
281,609
303,604
332,256
346,625
316,729
1,001,872
1,063,165
1,078,160
1,138,552
1,168,104
1,143,491
1,191,620
1,278,636
1,374,613
1,341,449
<234.
44,132
43,969
46,383
73, H24
79,267
98,263
95,666
100,478
107,814
113,511
110,918
105,039
PERSONAL INCOME LESS TRANSFER PAYMENTS, 1967 DOLLARS
(ANN. RATE, BILLION DOLLARS)
1946
1947...
1948. . .
1949...
1950. . .
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
235.6
234.0
23 9.5
245.1
267.5
276.6
295.2
295.3
234.6
234.9
239.2
242.9
266.0
281.6
296.6
294.9
228.6
240.4
239.9
246.7
268.7
283.0
299.5
293.4
226.7
2 38.8
2 38.8
249.5
273.1
281.2
299.8
292.1
7.28.0
239.2
239.2
25 2.9
273.2
28 4.4
301.3
293.3
231.5
244.0
23C.9
254.1
275.9
285.7
301.5
293.5
229.7
242.6
236.0
257.7
275.4
233.4
301.0
293.7
229.1
244. f>
237.4
262.2
278.6
290.1
299.0
296.5
1955. . .
195 6
1957*.'.!
1958...
1959. . .
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
304.3
32 7 0
335!9
331.5
345.0
361.3
360.6
381.2
397.6
414.5
30 5.2
328 0
337!2
331.6
347.7
360.7
361.0
383.2
399.0
419.8
30 7.9
311.0
314.1
315.9
337!B
330.8
35 0 . 1
360.3
362.2
385.7
400.1
421.7
337.fi
3 2 8.5
35 2.6
362.6
364.3
38 8.5
400.9
423.0
337.3
329.4
354.8
364.0
366.0
389.6
402.5
425.5
338.9
331.6
355.7
364.0
369.3
390.4
403.6
427.3
319.5
32 7 9
339i5
337.7
354.9
364.4
370.5
392.0
405.6
430.1
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
442.6
477.3
497.4
515.9
544.2
5 60.3
567.0
591.9
632.2
636.1
602.7
445.2
479.1
496.7
521.2
546.7
560.5
568.0
596.2
637.1
631.8
598.7
447.2
481.0
497.6
5 23.4
549.2
563.1
570.0
597.6
639.7
628.2
596.6
449.5
481.3
500.2
523.8
550.0
566.0
5 7 0.8
601.2
6^9.3
453.8
4P.3.4
500.5
456.1
486.7
504.1
530.4
5 5 4.0
564.5
569.8
603.6
640.0
621.7
603.3
458.7
430.0
505.9
533.6
555.6
565.8
570.5
608.2
643.5
623.9
604.4
625.6
597.1
NEW COMPOSITE
527.3
5 5 2.6
5 65 .?«
570.6
604.9
639.8
624.2
602.0
AVERAGE FOR
PERIOD
229.2
245.1
240.0
263.1
276.6
293.7
298.0
29 8.5
231.4
246.7
2 3 6.4
2 64.8
278.7
293.7
299.5
29 9.6
232.4
246.0
238.4
267.0
278.9
292.4
299.6
302.2
2 31.5
243.4
240.6
269.7
2 79.2
293.5
297.7
303.7
232.9
236.4
239.5
244.9
267.4
280.4
297.1
294.5
228.7
240.7
238O3
252.2
274.1
283.8
300.9
293.0
229.3
244.1
237.8
2 61.0
276.9
289.1
299.3
296.2
231.8
245.4
238.5
267.2
278.9
293.2
298.9
301.8
230*!7
7.41.6
2 3 8 .5
256.3
274.3
2 8 6.fi
299.1
296.4
319.8
3 32 3
321.2
336.9
351.4
363.5
372.0
392.5
406.7
433.9
339.*0
338.9
350.4
363.2
372.2
392. G
409.9
43 6.4
323.7
337 2
338!3
339.6
350.9
362.7
375.8
392.1
411.9
436.5
325.7
337 0
34o!o
344.0
35 4.6
361.0
380.1
395.3
411.9
438.5
327.4
33 7 7
334.*4
345.1
360.0
357.7
382.1
397.9
413.2
442.9
305.8
3 2 7.6
33 6.'9
331.3
347.6
360.8
361.3
383.4
398.9
418.7
313.7
331.0
337]9
329.8
354.4
363.5
366.5
389.5
402.3
425.3
320.2
331 „ 5
339.°5
337.8
352.2
363.7
371.6
392.4
407.4
433.5
325.6
337.3
33 6 is
342.9
355.2
360.5
379.3
39 5 . 1
412.3
439.3
316.3
3^1.9
337.*7
335.5
352.3
3 62.1
369.7
390.1
405.2
429.2
462.7
490.4
507.7
536.6
558.1
568.1
5 7 4.2
613.1
644.2
622.6
610.7
4 65.0
490.2
5 0 8.6
539.1
559.8
5 68.5
576.6
614.7
649.5
620.2
615.6
4 71.0
492.4
508.8
539.9
561.6
5 61.8
577.6
621.4
649.1
617.1
620.1
473.7
494.9
513.1
541.5
5 61.7
55 9.6
581.6
624.6
649.3
609.7
476O3
4 95.9
516.6
5 43.5
562.1
5 61.0
586.0
628.9
645.2
60 6.6
445.0
479.1
497.2
520.2
546.7
561.3
568.3
595.2
636.3
632.0
599.3
453.1
483.8
501.6
527.2
552.2
5 65.4
570.4
603.2
639.7
623.6
600.8
462.1
490.2
507.4
536.4
557.8
5 67.5
573.8
612,0
645.7
622.2
610.2
473.7
494.4
512.8
541.fi
561.8
560.8
5 81.7
625 .0
647.9
611.1
45 8.5
48 6.9
504.8
5 31.4
554.fi
563.8
573.6
60S. 9
642.4
622.3
OF 4 COINCIDENT INDICATORS
(1967=100)
INDE>
AVERAGE FOR
PERIOD
1945...
1947
1948...
1949...
1950. . .
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
30.1
30.3
30.0
35.3
36.1
39.6
38.2
30.1
30.2
29.9
35.3
36.5
39.9
38.3
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958. . .
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
40.0
45.1
47.0
43.7
46.8
51.7
49.1
54.7
58.6
64.3
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968. . .
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
74.1
87.9
97.7
105.4
117.8
122.3
121.0
134.8
163.4
173.7
152.5
35.5
36.fi
40.2
38.0
30.2
29.7
31.3
35.fi
36.5
40.3
37.9
30.4
29.5
31.9
35.6
36.6
40.4
37.8
30.9
29.4
32.6
35.7
36.4
40.3
37.9
31.0
29.1
33.7
35.4
36.0
40.4
37.9
31.0
29.4
34.6
35.6
37.3
40.1
37.9
31.0
29.7
34.3
35.5
38.3
39.7
38.2
31.1
28.7
34.4
35.7
38.7
39.6
38.4
31.0
29.2
34.3
35.9
39.0
39.1
39.0
30.8
29.6
35.0
35.9
39.4
38.6
39.5
30.2
30.1
30.2
35.4
36.4
39.9
38.2
30.5
29.5
31.9
35.6
36.5
40.3
37.9
31.0
29,4
34.2
35.5
37.2
40.1
38.0
31.0
29.2
34.fi
35.8
39.0
39.1
39.0
30*! 7
29.fi
32.7
35.6
37.3
39.8
38.7.
40.3
45.1
47.4
42.7
47.6
51.6
49.0
55.4
59.2
65.5
41.1
45.2
47.4
42.0
48.4
51.3
49.5
5 6.0
59.6
65.7
41.7
45.7
47.0
41.4
49.4
51.7
49.9
5 6.6
60.3
66.8
42.4
45.6
46.9
41.5
50.1
51.4
50.6
56.8
60.7
67.7
42.7
45.6
47.1
42.2
50.3
51.2
51.4
56.8
61.1
68.1
43.1
43.9
47.2
43.1
50.0
51.0
51.7
57.2
61.7
69.1
43.2
45.6
47.3
43.6
48.6
50.8
52.4
57.5
61.8
69.9
43.7
46.2
46.8
44.2
48.4
50.7
52.5
57.7
62.6
71.0
44.2
46.7
46.3
44.6
48.3
50.5
53.4
57.9
63.4
70.1
44.6
46.7
45.4
45.9
48.9
49.9
54.4
58.5
63.2
71.9
44.9
47.2
44.4
45.8
50.8
49.1
54.9
58.4
63.8
73.8
40.5
45.1
47.3
42.8
47.6
51.5
49.2
55.4
59.1
65.2
42.3
45.6
47.0
41.7
49.9
51.4
50.6
56.7
60.7
67.5
43.3
45.2
47.1
43.6
49.0
50.8
5 2.2
57.5
62.0
70.0
4 4 . F,
46.9
45.4
45.4
49.3
49.8
54.2
58.3
63.5
71.9
42.7
45.7
4 6.7
43.4
49.0
50.9
51.fi
57.0
61.3
68.7
75.1
89.0
96.9
107.3
119.5
122.9
121.8
136.5
166.5
172.6
149.7
76.5
90.7
97.2
108.1
120.5
123.0
122.7
139.4
168.0
172.2
147.0
77.2
91.2
98.0
10 8.5
121.0
122.7
123.8
141.8
168.2
171.8
147.6
78.2
92.1
98.2
110.2
121.6
122.6
125.1
144.0
169.6
172.5
148.8
79.3
93.7
99.2
111.5
122.6
122.4
125.3
144.5
170.3
171.6
149.5
80 .7
94.4
99.5
112.8
123.5
122.8
124.7
146.0
173.0
172.4
151.5
81.8
94.9
101.2
112.8
124.3
122.7
125.3
149.5
172.7
171.9
15 4.6
82.3
95.6
101.3
114.4
125.2
121.9
127.6
151.2
174.4
171.0
156.9
84.1
96.6
101.1
115.2
126.0
117.5
127.5
155.2
176.4
16 9.0
158.8
85.4
96.8
103.8
11.6.5
124.4
115.6
129.9
157.5
178.2
162.8
86.7
97.2
105.7
116.8
124.2
119.0
131.6
159.9
175.6
156.4
75.2
89.2
97.3
106.9
119.3
122.7
121.8
136.9
166.0
172.8
149.7
78.2
92.3
98.5
110.1
121.7
122.6
124.7
143.4
159.4
172.0
148.6
81.6
95.0
100.7
113.3
124.3
12 2.5
125.9
148.9
173.4
171.8
154.3
85.4
96.9
103.5
116.2
124.9
1.1.7.4
129.7
157.5
176.7
162.7
80.1
93.3
100.0
111.6
122.6
121.3
125.5
146.7
171.4
169.8
30.4
29.9
30.7
XXII
B. Data for New Series and Indexes—Continued
Quarterly
Monthly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
XI.
1945...
1946...
1947...
191*8. . .
19U9...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
May
Apr.
June
July
Sept.
Aug.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1 Q
AVERAGE DURATION DF UNEMPLOYMENT
(WEEKS)
IIIQ
II Q
IVQ
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
—
8.7
8.4
7.6
12.0
12.2
9.5
9.7
IF.2
8.9
11.5
11.9
9.7
9.8
9.7
8.8
11.5
11.9
9.9
9.9
15.7
11.1
10.2
8.7
8.2
7.9
7.9
10.5
12.1
11.0
8.0
10.4
12.4
10.5
8 .3
10.6
12.3
10.6
9.5
9.6
9.5
10.7
11.7
11.4
8.3
10.9
12.4
10.0
9.8
12.9
8.6
11.3
12.3
10.1
9.6
13.4
15.4
8.E
10.8
12.5
9.2
7.5
7.9
10.1
15.4
MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES,
(BILLION DOLLARS)
7ID.
12.1
10.3
8.7
11.6
12.5
11.4
10.8
8.8
8.7
7.9
9.3
9.4
8.1
11.9
10.1
8.4
8.2
8.0
11.9
9.8
8.9
8.3
7.9
8.9
8.5
7.9
12.2
11.9
11.3
10.9
10.4
16.4
13.1
13.9
17.0
13.3
13.3
14.0
9.7
8.3
8.4
7.8
12.0
11.1
9.2
8.7
7.9
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
13.2
11.5
11.6
11.1
16.5
12.9
13.5
15.9
14.1
13.9
12.6
11.6
12.6
11.2
14.2
12.5
10.7
11.0
15.5
13.1
13.6
16.0
14.1
13.2
13.3
9.7
8.3
7.9
7.7
13.4
10.1
10.2
14.4
14.9
11.9
16.2
15.1
14.0
13.6
13.4
11.7
10.4
10.5
16.3
13.5
13.7
15.3
13.8
13.5
9.3
8.8
8.0
11.6
14.4
10.4
10.4
13.1
14.7
11.9
15.6
15.5
14.5
13.6
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
9.7
9.5
7.9
11.7
11.8
9.8
If.5
13.7
12.9
16.1
14.1
14.2
12.7
14.3
11.0
10.6
12.1
14.9
12.6
15.5
14. 9
14.5
12.4
8.4
8.5
8.9
9.1
7.2
12.3
12.0
10.5
15.7
13.7
12.2
17.0
14.5
13.9
13.0
12.3
13.4
11.6
10.8
11.2
15.3
13.0
14.1
15.0
14.5
13.5
8.8
8.4
9.5
8.1
11.8
10.7
13.8
10.5
10.1
14.6
14.3
12.6
17.3
14.6
14.0
14.7
10.6
9.3
9.3
8.7
7.8
11.6
10.7
12.5
8.8
10.0
13.1
8.7
7.3
8.2
8.7
8.3
12.4
10.1
9.5
8.5
11.7
12.2
9.1
8.1
7.1
12.9
9.1
9.1
12.7
9.9
7.8
7.9
11.6
8.4
8.3
11.8
10.8
10.9
12.3
8.8
11.0
12.2
9.1
7.6
8.0
12.B
8.5
8.8
12.6
10.6
9.0
7.8
10.9
8.9
8.2
11.3
10.6
8.8
9.3
12.8
11.2
12.3
8.6
10.0
12.0
9.7
8.4
8.0
9.7
8.0
8.0
9.1
7.7
7.7
13.4
11.6
12.7
13.3
11.8
12.0
11.4
10.4
15.7
13.1
12.4
15.8
13.6
13.3
12.7
13.7
11.9
10.6
10.9
15.7
13.2
13.8
15.4
14.1
13.4
14.0
10.5
10.4
13.2
14.8
12.1
15.8
15.2
14.3
13.2
12.6
11.4
10.1
15.6
13.9
12.6
16.8
14.4
14.0
13.5
11.6
11.3
10.6
16.2
13.0
13.3
16.2
13.7
13.5
13.1
13.0
11.3
10.4
14.0
14.4
12.8
15.6
14.7
14.0
13.3
11.7
11.4
11.4
10.2
11.7
9.5
8.6
8.2
8.0
12.3
11.4
11.8
9.7
8.9
8.1
8.0
8.6
8.3
7.8
9.9
8.5
8.3
7.9
9.8
8.7
8.2
7.9
11.8
10.3
9.1
8.9
8.0
12.5
11.6
10.1
12.0
11.5
10.0
11.4
11.2
8.1
10.5
12.3
10.7
11.' 3
12.4
ll'.l
12.0
12!o
ll!u
9.8
9.8
9.5
9.9
9.7
9.7
9.9
11.4
9.8
9.9
12.0
10.0
9.8
11.3
13.9
15.8
69.#44
63.91
75.0 6
85.39
89.24
H2.5 6
8 8.95
92.92
98.14
98.48
9 R. 5 8
9.3
10.0
15.4
8.8
8.4
7.9
r
.ND OF PERIOD
66.29
70.54
69.07
76.67
86.07
91.28
92.11
66.69
70.79
68.91
77.28
86.01
91.48
91.8 2
67.10
70.81
69.41
78.17
86.09
91.89
91.4 6
67.34
70.50
69.71
7 9.33
8 6.10
92.73
91.0 2
67.57
70.47
70.47
S0.74
85.89
93.02
90.66
68.41
70.50
71.05
81.84
86.44
93.41
90.19
69.37
70.62
70.15
82.63
86.42
94.10
89.77
69.48
70 .64
71.76
83.56
86.40
94.05
39.24
1955...
1956...
1957. . .
1958...
1959. . .
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963.. .
1964. . .
89.23
93.44
98.34
97.11
96.80
102.18
104.12
106.19
111.47
116.28
89.29
94.35
98.18
96.67
97.13
103.37
103.93
106.85
111.93
116.54
89.90
94.52
98.15
96.39
97.49
104.00
103.41
107.47
112.33
117.00
89.80
95.43
98.3 9
95.94
98.6 2
104.07
103.53
107.60
112.44
117.49
90.35
95.96
98.38
95.5 2
99.00
10 4.57
103.75
108.42
112.76
118.00
91.18
96.39
98.51
95.34
99.79
104.90
103.62
108.98
113.28
118.54
91.68
96.85
98.71
95.21
100.35
105.27
103.82
109.38
113.62
118.64
92.22
97.18
99.23
94.96
m o . 31
105.04
104.31
10 9.8 9
114.15
119.07
9 7 . C>7
99.58
95.56
99.83
105.36
104.G9
110.44
114.78
120.20
1965...
1966...
1967. . .
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
122.52
130.04
144.72
150.71
157.73
162.74
166.82
170.72
177.59
186.96
193.26
122.94
131.32
145.49
151.0 5
158.99
163.55
167.22
170.98
178.19
187.93
191.53
12 4.2 2
13 2.30
146.04
151.0 6
159.97
163.52
167.84
171.29
17 8.55
188.07
190.12
124.79
133.11
146.68
15 2.0 4
160.00
164.25
168.23
171.85
178.56
188.06
189.61
125.23
134.47
14 7.04
153.05
160.37
164.03
168.8 2
172.46
179.21
188.83
187.60
125.90
136.02
146.95
153.57
160.50
164.51
168.76
172.58
180.15
189.91
185.87
126.91
137.17
147.55
154.08
161.17
165.28
169.15
172.75
181.06
190.37
185.32
127.74
138.23
148.39
155.05
161.62
165.92
169.53
174.02
181.24
189.84
185.73
128.04
139.27
148.50
15 5.62
162.16
166.13
169.6 4
174.71
181.56
190.25
185.15
69.55
70.90
72.58
83.91
87.46
94.10
89.18
92.10
RATIO, CONSUMER INSTALLMENT DEBT TO PERSONAL
(PERCENT)
69.65
70.46
73.40
84.51
88.34
93.48
88.77
69.65
69.78
74.64
85.02
88.86
92.85
89.09
69.44
68.91
75.06
85.39
89.24
92.56
8 8.95
67.10
70.81
69.41
78.17
86.09
91.8 9
91.46
68.41
70.50
71.05
81.84
86.44
93.41
90.19
83.91
87.46
94.10
89.18
69.44
68.91
75.06
85.39
89.24
92.56
88.95
92.56
97.74
98.66
95.77
100.00
105.22
104.81
110.94
115.45
120.03
92.66
98.19
98.43
95.97
100.00
105.35
10 5.51
111.02
115.69
120.92
92.92
98.14
98.48
96.58
101.31
10 4.4 6
10 5.57
111.21
115.91
121.70
8 9.90
94.52
98.15
96.39
97.49
104.00
103.41
107.47
112.33
117.00
91.18
96.39
98.51
95.34
99.79
104.90
103.62
108.98
113.28
118.54
92.10
97.67
99.58
95.56
99.83
105.36
104.69
110.44
114.78
120.20
92.92
98.14
98.48
96.58
101.31
10 4.4 6
10 5.5 7
111.21
115.91
121.70
101.31
104.46
105.57
111.21
115.91
121.70
128.41
140.73
148.55
15 6.51
162.77
165.8 3
169.74
175.19
182.45
191.71
128.96
142.08
14 9.5 6
156.69
162.68
166.32
169.62
175.81
183.63
191.73
129.49
143.40
15 0.4 6
157.10
163.12
166.41
170.40
176.67
185.92
192.78
124.22
132.30
146.04
151.0 6
159.97
163.52
167.84
171.29
178.55
188.07
190.12
125.90
136.02
146.95
153.57
160.50
164.61
168.76
172.58
180.15
189.91
185.87
128.04
139.27
148.50
155.62
162.16
166.13
169.64
174.71
181.56
190.25
185.15
129.49
143.40
150.46
157.10
163.12
166.41
170.40
176.67
185.92
192.78
129.49
143.40
150.46
157.10
163.12
166.41
170.40
176.67
185.92
19 2.78
1.32
1.99
3.06
3.93
5.23
6.11
5.60
6.42
7.65
7.72
1.35
2.08
3.18
4.02
5.33
6.05
5.65
6.5 9
7.78
7.71
1.41
2.14
3.23
4.15
5.44
5.92
5.68
6.74
7.82
7.77
1.21
1.50
2.37
3.46
4.31
5.37
5.91
5.80
7.02
7.85
1.20
1.66
2.72
3.72
4.64
5.80
5.72
5.98
7.40
7.86
1.26
1.84
2.92
3.80
4.95
6.05
5.62
6.25
7.5 8
7.78
1.36
2.07
3.16
4.03
5.33
6.03
5.64
6.58
7.80
7.73
1.26
1.77
2.79
3.77
4.81
5.80
5.72
6.14
7.43
7.81
8.30
9.07
9.23
9.25
8.77
9.07
9.40
8.88
9.8 2
10.44
10.00
10.50
11.33
11.96
8 .40
9.05
9.26
9.13
9.40
10.21
10.17
10.27
11.03
11.74
12.37
12.30
11.95
11.93
12.19
12.07
12.14
12.46
13.07
12.94
12.28
12.39
12.07
11.89
12.16
12.07
12.00
12.32
12.91
13.07
69.55
70.90
72.58
INCOME
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952. . .
1953...
1954...
1.22
1.45
2.27
3.36
4.25
5.34
5.94
5.76
6.91
7.85
1.20
1.51
2.37
3.46
4.32
5.38
5.91
5.74
7.02
7.86
1.21
1.53
2.47
3.56
4.37
5.39
5.87
5.75
7.14
7.85
1.21
1.60
2.R2
3.69
4.51
5.62
5.78
5.85
7.29
7.91
1.20
1.66
2.74
3.75
4.64
5.75
5.73
5.96
7.36
7.84
1.20
1.71
2.81
3.73
4.76
5.88
5.65
6.14
7.40
7.83
1.21
1.75
2.91
3.80
4.88
5.98
5.60
6.30
7.52
7.83
5.61
6.20
7.59
7.78
1.31
1.94
2.85
3.92
5.00
6.14
5.64
6.24
7.63
7.73
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958. . .
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
7.88
8.90
9.15
9.44
8.97
9.82
10.44
10.05
10.56
11.42
7.98
8.96
9.14
9.41
9.0 2
9.95
10.40
10.04
10.72
11.50
8.10
9.03
9.17
9.32
9.07
10.05
10.31
10.04
10.79
11.58
8.19
9.04
9.21
9.31
9.11
10.09
10.27
10.09
10.90
ll.fil
8.28
9.09
9.24
9.25
9.17
10.12
10.21
10.17
10.94
11.69
8.42
9.09
9.23
9.18
9.26
10.20
10.14
10.25
10.9 9
11.7 6
8.43
9.16
9.26
9.01
9.38
10.25
10.05
10.30
11.09
11.80
8.58
9.10
9.26
9.01
9.61
10.30
10.10
10.37
11.16
11.81
8.68
9.07
9.33
8.95
9.75
10.36
10.09
10.37
11.21
11.88
8.73
9.03
9.37
8.94
9.86
10.37
10.0 2
10.45
11.28
11.98
8.76
9.10
9.39
8.84
9.84
10.43
9.98
10.50
11.35
11.95
8.81
9.09
9.43
8.87
9.75
10.53
9.99
10.56
11.36
11.94
7.99
8.96
9.15
9.39
9.02
9.94
10.38
10.04
10.69
11.50
9.18
10.14
10.21
10.17
10.94
11.69
8.56
9.11
9.28
8.99
9.5 8
10.30
10.08
10.35
11.15
11.83
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
12.01
12.41
12.25
11.91
12.03
12.21
11.93
12.13
12.61
13.14
12.81
12.13
12.38
12.22
11.89
12.09
12.20
11.93
12.07
12.66
13.12
12.80
12.17
12.40
12.19
11.84
12.07
12.14
11.92
12.15
12.73
13.13
12.74
12.28
12.42
12.15
11.8 9
12.13
11.89
11.97
12.18
12.78
13.14
12.C.4
12.32
12.46
12.13
11.88
12.19
12.00
11.97
12.24
12.88
13.14
12.51
12.34
12.43
12.0 8
11.87
12.22
12.07
11.76
12.38
12.93
13.14
12.25
12.39
12.44
12.02
11.87
12.20
12.08
11.99
12.38
13.01
13.07
12.37
12.44
12.41
12.00
11.87
12.19
12.05
11.99
12.43
13.05
13.11
12.24
12.20
12.37
12.00
11.85
12.19
12.0 2
12.08
12.49
13.02
13.05
12.18
12.38
12.32
12.00
11.90
12.20
12.11
12.13
12.42
13.05
13.01
12.37
12.29
11.95
11.93
12.21
12.07
12.16
12.46
13.10
12.98
12.35
12.30
11.91
11.97
12.16
12.03
12.13
12.51
13.05
12.84
12.10
12.40
12.22
1.1.8 8
12.06
12.18
11.93
12.12
12.67
13.13
12.78
12.31
12.44
12.12
11.88
12.18
11.99
11.90
12.27
12.86
13.14
12.47
12.34
12.41
12.01
11.86
12.19
12.00
12.0 2
12.43
13.03
13.08
12.26
8.5
11.4
11.2
9.3
9.1
7.7
8.8
8.7
9.6
1967 DOLLARS
1945
1946. . .
1947
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953. . .
1954...
X251.
8.6
8.7
8.3
11.8
10.5
—
1.25
1.83
2.99
3.83
4.96
6.04
XXIII
B. Data for New Series and Indexes—Continued
Monthly
Quarterly
Year
Feb.
Jan.
May
Apr.
Mar.
June
July
Sept.
Aug.
Oct.
Nov.
Annual
Dec.
1 Q
OF 6 LAGGING INDICATORS
(1967 = 100)
II Q
IVQ
III Q
NEW COMPOSITE INDEX
1945
1946
1947
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952. . .
1953. . .
1954...
24 2
26.6
25 9
29 9
^4 2
36 8
38 5
24.
26! 7
25. 8
30. 4
34. 3
37. 1
38. 3
24.5
2 6.6
25.8
30.9
34.5
37.4
37.8
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958. . .
1959...
1960...
1961. . .
1962. . .
1963. . .
1964...
36
40
46
47
44
50
53
52
58
63
2
8
0
6
1
7
4
8
8
36.
41.
45.
46.
44.
51.
53.
52.
58.
64.
^
0
8
8
4
8
3
9
4
6
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969. . .
1970...
1971. . .
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
71
83
98
102
116
134
124
124
140
177
198
9
6
8
8
6
0
7
4
8
7
9
73. 2
85. 4
98. 8
103. 9
117. 7
134. 1
124. 3
123. 4
144. 4.
177. 6
192. 4
1
AVERAGE FOR
25.1
26.2
26.3
32.4
35.4
38.4
3 6.8
25.6
26.1
26.5
32.5
35.4
38.7
36.7
26.
25
26.
32.
35.
38.
36.
0
9
9
8
3
7
2
26.2
25.8
27.6
32.9
35.6
39.0
36.0
26.0
26.1
2 8.3
33.2
35.7
38.9
35.9
26.4
25.8
29.0
33.4
35.9
38.8
36.1
26.4
25.8
29.2
33.8
36.4
38.8
36.1
24.4
26.6
25.8
30.4
34.3
37.1
38.2
24.9
26.4
26.1
31.3
34.4
38.0
37.G
24.9
2 6.5
26.2
31.8
35.0
38.3
37.2
36.6
41.8
46.0
46.5
44.8
52.6
52.8
53.5
58.6
64.9
36.5
42. f.
4 6.5
45.9
45.2
53.0
52.2
54.0
58.7
65.7
36.8
43.4
46.7
44.5
46.1
53.8
5 2.0
54.5
59.1
65.9
37.4
43.9
46.9
43.7
47.1
54.3
51.6
55.2
59.8
6 6.5
37.7
44.8
47.2
43.3
47.9
54.3
51.1
55.7
60.5
66.4
38. 7
44 3
47. 9
43. 0
49. 0
54. 1
51. 5
5 6. 2
60. 9
67. 8
39.1
44.8
48.4
43.4
50.0
53.6
51.7
56.7
61.3
69.2
39.6
45.0
47 .9
43.5
50.7
53.4
51.7
57.3
62.2
69.7
40.2
45.5
48.2
43.5
50.6
53.7
51.7
5 7.9
63.5
69.3
40.2
45.5
48.4
44.0
50.5
53.8
52.0
58.0
64.1
70.8
74.5
86.9
99.7
104.3
119.5
132.9
12 3.3
124.5
147.5
178.7
190.3
75.9
88.5
98.8
10 5.6
122.0
130.4
122.0
125.8
151.3
184.0
185.5
77.1
90.0
99.4
10 7.9
123.5
130.8
12 2.3
127.2
15 4.2
189.4
181.7
77.5
91.7
99.8
10 8.6
127.4
131.fi
120.5
128.0
15 8.1
19 2.3
174.9
78.1
93.0
100.1
10S.7
128.8
132.5
123.5
129.1
162.4
195.5
175.6
79.3
94.9
100.6
110.5
129.9
132.8
125.8
132.1
169.3
198.3
174.0
80.5
95.5
100.3
110.2
131.7
132.0
125.3
134.0
170.3
19 9.5
176.2
81.5
97.3
101.2
111.8
131.9
129.7
125.0
135.7
171.7
198.9
83.0
97.9
102.9
114.6
132.3
127.6
125.8
137.6
175.8
199.5
RATIO,
24.8
26.5
25.9
NEW
COINCIDENT
79.
94.
99.
109.
129.
133.
125.
130.
166.
196.
174.
2
7
6
6
3
0
4
7
1
7
8
31.8
34.9
38.2
37.2
25.
25.
27.
32.
35.
38.
36.
9
9
0
7
4
8
3
26.3
25.9
2,°,. 8
33.5
36.0
38.8
36.4
41.2
45.9
47.0
44.4
51.7
53.2
53.1
58.4
64.4
36.9
43.3
46.7
44.7
46.1
53.7
51.9
5 4.6
5 9.2
66.0
38.
44.
47.
43.
49.
54.
51.
56.
60.
67.
5
6
8
2
0
0
4
2
9
8
4n. n
45.3
48.2
43.7
50.6
53 .G
73.2
85.3
99.1
103.7
117.9
133.7
124.1
124.1
144.2
178.0
193.9
76.8
90.1
99.3
107.4
124.3
130.9
121.6
127.0
15 4.5
188.6
180.7
124
113
115
118
105
107
99
111.4
103.4
94.2
104.0
97.5
92.9
104.7
100.9
100.3
102.9
112.4
104.9
99.0
97.4
103.2
95. 6
99.0
102.9
101.5
10 2.4
10 4. fi
100.0
10 2.0
103.5
9 4.6
90.5
10 3.4
116.0
10 2.4
81.7
10 3.2
102.0
It) 0.0
103.1
97.5
92 .0
101.2
113.3
107.9
89.3
119
113
126
104.5
105.5
101.8
114.2
103.9
100.4
9 6.6
10 6.8
94.3
99.6
102.9
102.2
10 2.4
114.3
98.0
100.0
99.5
104.4
93.9
101.2
102.7
102.0
104.1
111 .6
10 2 . 9
98 . 7
101 .4
99 2
93 . 9
101 .7
102 . 3
101 .5
103 . 1
111.8
103.1
96.7
101.8
9 6.8
94.6
101.5
101.8
102.1
102.6
111.6
103.8
96.7
102.5
95.3
94.6
103.3
101.0
101.9
100.6
110.9
102.6
94.2
10 5.5
9 6.6
92.9
10 5.2
101.0
99.5
103.8
111.7
103.7
91.7
104.1
100.6
91.3
105.6
100.7
99.5
104.2
111.3
109.5
102.9
91.1
107.1
99.7
92.5
104.3
101.3
101.1
114.5
105.4
100.6
93.4
108.3
95.8
97.5
104.0
102.5
102.3
112
101
98
100
100
94
101
102
101
103
102.3
102.2
99.4
102.7
96.2
9^ .0
104.0
112.9
10 7.7
89.2
85.5
103.3
101.5
99.5
103.8
95.9
92.7
101.0
113.1
106.5
88.2
86.2
103 . 3
100 . 2
101 .6
10 2 . 9
9 6. 1
9 2.3
99 . 9
114 .4
10 4 . 0
87 . 4
88 . 4
103.8
100.7
100.7
10 3.5
96.4
91.8
101.4
114.5
103.0
86.2
90.2
10 4.5
101.2
100.8
10 4.8
99.5
102.6
104.2
94.3
8 9.1
103.9
116.1
103.8
81.9
10 4.5
99.3
102.7
101.9
93.9
93.3
104.6
116.2
99.9
78.4
102.7
104.6
98.2
103.1
101.1
91.8
98.2
110.3
115.1
97.1
77.2
101.8
102.5
99.1
102.5
98.0
93.6
102.6
112.9
109.6
91.2
82.3
103 .5
10 0 . 8
10 0 . 6
103 .4
96 . 1
92 . 3
100 . 8
114 .0
104 .5
87 . 3
88 . 3
.6
.6
.2
112.2
124.0
110.2
102.8
104.9
103.0
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958. . .
1959. . .
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
110 . 5
110 . 5
102 .2
91 .8
106 . 1
10 2 . 0
91 . 9
103 .6
100 . 9
100 .8
111
110
103
91
107
99
91
104
101
101
0
0
5
2
2
6
9
7
4
.4
112.3
108.1
103.0
90.3
10 8.0
97.5
93.8
10 4.7
101.7
101.2
114.2
10 7.3
101.1
90 .?
109.3
97.5
95. H
104.8
102.7
101.7
115.2
105.1
10 0.4
93.3
10 8.7
95.5
97.3
104.2
102.7
102.7
1965...
1366. . .
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972.. .
1973...
1974...
1975...
103
105
98
102
101
91
97
108
116
97
76
.1
102
104
98
103
101
91
98
110
115
97
6
.2
.1
.3
.5
.6
.0
.6
.3
.2
.8
10 2.5
104.4
97.5
103.6
10 0.8
92. n
99.5
112.0
113.9
9 6.4
77.2
101.7
103.1
99.2
102.7
91.2
94.1
101.5
112.7
111.2
93.4
79.G
101.4
10 2.3
98.8
10 2 . 1
98.5
H3.7
102 .3
113.2
110.0
91.1
81.9
,fi
3
5
.9
1
1
.5
.3
.9
.3
123.8
113.1
116.9
116.4
106.0
10 7.5
9 9.9
122.1
111.3
121.8
111.9
104.6
10 5.5
101.6
77
105 0
103 3
104 7
116.7
114.7
119.9
106.2
108.2
99.5
109.4
122.3
111.9
122.2
111.9
101.7
104.4
103.3
117.4
113.2
118.3
10 7.5
108.6
100.8
108.0
121.8
112.1
120.8
113.7
106.1
106.1
IOC.8
.9
.5
.0
.3
.0
.4
.1
.7
.7
77.6
91. 6
100.0
108.2
125.9
131.8
12 4.0
129.4
159.3
190.7
120*9
112! 8
121.4
111.0
106.0
10 4.2
103.6
119.fi
110.0
121.6
10 7.5
108.4
101.8
107.0
123.6
112.4
119.0
114.9
106.1
107.5
100.5
.1
81.7
96.3
101.5
112.2
132.0
12 9.8
125.4
135.8
172.6
199.3
117.9
112.fi
119.9
10 7.1
10 8.4
100.7
108.1
118.3
115.1
124.3
107.9
10 7 . G
101.8
106.1
4
1
9
1
4
5
0
.1
51.8
57.7
63.3
69.9
37.9
4 3.6
47.2
44.6
47.5
5 3.3
5 2.1
55.4
60.4
67.0
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
119 2
113 .5
128
10 8 . 5
105 .7
103 .6
104 . 7
123
113
115
116
106
107
100
.4
.9
.8
78. 9
94. 2
100. 1
109. 6
129. 3
132. 8
124. 9
130. 6
165. 9
196. 8
174. 8
36.n
2 5 '.4
26.2
27.0
32.1
35.2
38.2
36.9
INDEX TO NEW LAGGING INDEX
(1967 = 100)
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950. . .
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
PERIOD
123.1
121.1
111.5
127.2
108.9
XXIV
10 4 . 5
95.7
89.0
101.8
115.8
103.6
84.7
90.1
5
4
7
10 8 4
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into :,ix major
subject sections, as followsA.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
National Income and Product
Cyclical Indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
Internationa! Comparisons
Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 1953 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, the charts
contain shading which indicates periods of
recession in genera! business activity.
In addition to the r.fnrts and table: described above, each K : - ^ contains i ?urr:
mary table which sh:-,vs the cur^nt behavior of many of V\o s^nc.--, and several
appendixes which preson1 historical data,
series descriptions. son^nal adjustment
factors, and measure.; of ;arlability. An
index appears at the back of -:a^h issue
It should be noted that ttv? series number,
used are for identification, purpose^ on!y
and do not reflect relationships ;; order.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for
series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or
trading days in each month. As used in
this report, the term "seasonal adjustment"
includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown
here on a seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the
smoothest series and 6 for the most
erratic. MCD moving averages (that is,
moving averages of the period equal to
MCD) tend to have about the same degree
of smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-term
moving average of a series with an MCD
of 5 will show its cyclical movements
about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER,
aggregate
economic
activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As
a matter of general practice, neither new
reference turning dates nor the shading
for recessions will be entered on the charts
until after both the new reference peak
and the new reference trough bounding
the shaded area have been designated.
This policy is followed because of the
conceptual and empirical difficulties of
designating a current recession and the
practical difficulties of terminating the
shading of a current recession without
including part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories
valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports.
Exports include receipts from domestic
output sold abroad, transportation, travel,
other services, fees and royalties and income on investments in foreign areas.
Imports include purchases of foreign
goods, payments for transportation, travel
and other services, military expenditures
as well as payments of income on foreign
investments in the United States. More
detail on U.S. balance of payments is
provided in section D.
Government purchases of goods and serv
ices includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section A. Other major aggregates taken from
the national income and product accounts
are described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Personal consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an
accounting period. It is the total of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated. The implicit price deflator (computed by dividing the current-dollar data
by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP
is also shown.
&;&*'d
SECTION B
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73
cyclical indicators is the basis for this
section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses the same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 79 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists
of 26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators. In addition, there are five indexes
based on leading indicators which have
been grouped by economic process. These
indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators has been "reverse trend adjusted" so
that its long-run trend parallels that of
the coincident index. This facilitates comparisons among the leading, coincident,
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
•
N.
\^
Cyclical
Timing
Economic
Process
|
EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(13 series)
||. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(9 series)
HI. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
|V. INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(14 series)
VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(20 series)
\
\.
LEADING INDICATORS
(40 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(26 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
<2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
Job vacancies
(1 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(13 series)
Comprehensive
production
(3 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (4 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
Backlog of investment
commitments
(2 series)
Investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (5 series)
Cash flows (2 series)
Flows of money
and credit
(7 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(5 series)
Unit labor costs
(3 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates
(3 series)
and lagging indexes and tends to shorten
the leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these
series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments. In
some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D
OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com
prehensive selection. In general, these
series reflect processes which are not
direct measures of economic activity but
which do have a significant bearing on
business conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures,
and their balance, and selected defense
activities. The receipts and expenditures
data are from the national income and
product accounts. The defense series are
only a few of the many available. For a
more comprehensive picture of defense activities, see Defense Indicators, a monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis publication.
Three other groups of series are included
in this section. The price movements
series consist of consumer and wholesale
price indexes and their major components.
The series on wages and productivity include measures of hourly earnings and
output per man-hour and also rates of
change for most of these measures. The
final group of series measures the civilian
labor force and its major components, including unemployment rates for selected
.segments of the labor force.
SECTION E
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic varia-
bles (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected
group of economic series. Percent changes
are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or
for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F
Lit.
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Basic Data
(May) [fmb.)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
20 - 1 /
if^
" 1 6 - <?
14 —
-|
12 -<y
/
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("6" = June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L - l " is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
80-J
Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted 1% 2,
or 2y2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
,Scale shows percent of components rising.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ( " I " =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE in the
back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according
to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, or
2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES where series are listed in
numerical order according to series numbers within each of the
Digest's six sections.
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
Average
1972
1973
1974
2dQ
1974
3dQ
1974
4th Q
1974
1st Q
1975
2d Q
1975
3dQ
1975
4th Q
to
1st Q
1975
1st Q
to
2dQ
1975
2dQ
to
3dQ
1975
A. N A T I O N A L INCOME A N D PRODUCT
A 1 . Gross National Product
200.
205.
210.
215.
217.
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
A2.
National income, current dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars ..
Disposable personal income, 1958 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income,
current dollars
227. Per capita disposable pers. income, 1958 dol. .
A3.
-1.0
-3.0
2.0
-1.2
-3.1
1,7
0,5
1.3
1.5
0.3
4.4
3.2
1.1
4.1
2.9
200
205
210
215
217
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
946.5 1065.6 1142.5 1130.2 1155.5 1165.4 1150.7 1175.4 1227.0
944.9 1055,0 1150.5 1134.6 1168.2 U86.9 1193.4 1220.5 1255.2
802.5 903,7 979.7 966.5 993.1 1008.8 1015.5 1078.5 1079.6
580.5 619.6 602.8 603.5 602.9 594.8 591.0 620.2 611.4
-1.3
0.5
0.7
-0.6
2.1
2.3
6.2
4.9
4.4
2.8
0.1
-1.4
220
222
224
225
do
do
Ann. rate, dol. .
do
3,843
2/779
4/295
2/945
4/623
2/845
4/565
2/850
4/681
2/842
4/745
2/798
4/768
2/775
5/055
2/907
5/047
2/858
0.5
-0.8
6.0
4.8
-0.2
-1.7
226
227
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.
729.0
527.3
118.4
78.8
39.7
299.7
310.9
805.2
552.1
130.3
86.9
43.4
338.0
336.9
876,7
539.5
127.5
90.0
37.5
380.2
369.0
869.1
542.7
129.5
91.5
38.0
375.8
363.8
901.3
547.2
136.1
92.5
43.6
389.0
376.2
895.8
528.2
120.7
88.1
32.6
391.7
383.5
913.2
531.5
124.9
89.6
35.3
398.8
389.5
938.6
539.7
130.6
93.5
37.1
410*1
397.9
968.8
548.6
138.6
96.3
42.3
422.7
407.5
1.9
0.6
3,5
1.7
8.3
1.8
1.6
2.8
1.5
4.6
4.4
5.1
2.8
2.2
3.2
1.6
6.1
3.0
14.0
3.1
2.4
230
231
232
233
234
236
237
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.
179.3
116.8
41.1
75.7
54.0
8.5
209,4
136,8
47,0
89.8
57.2
15.4
209,4
149.2
52.0
97.1
46.0
14.2
211.8
149.4
52.2
97.2
48.8
13.5
205.8
150.9
51.0
99.9
46.2
8.7
209.4
151.2
53.7
97.5
40.4
17.8
163.1
146.9
52.S
94.2
35.3
-19.2
148.1
142.7
49.1
93.6
36.4
-31.0
179.1
143.6
49.6
94.0
41.0
-5.5
-22.1
-2.8
-1.7
-3.4
-12.6
-37.0
-9.2
-2.9
-7.0
-0.6
3.1
-11.8
20.9
0.6
1.0
0.4
12.6
25.5
240
241
242
243
244
245
-6.0
72.4
78.4
3,9
100,4
96.4
2.1
140.2
138.1
-1.5
138.5
140.0
-3.1
143.6
146.7
1.9
147.5
145.7
8.8
142.2
133.4
16.2
136.0
119.8
12.2
142.0
129.8
6.9
-3.6
-8.4
7.4
-4.4
-10.2
-4.0
4.4
8.3
250
252
253
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do
255.7
104.9
74.8
150.8
276,4
106.6
74,4
169.8
309.2
116.9
78.7
192.3
304.4
114.3
76.6
190.1
312.3
117.2
78.4
195.1
323.8
124.5
84.0
199.3
331.6
126.5
84.7
205.1
338.1
128.4
84.8
209.7
343.5
130.5
86.1
213.0
2.4
1.6
0.8
2.9
2.0
1.5
0.1
2.2
1.6
1.6
1,5
1.6
260
262
264
266
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do
214.3
7.1
321.0
1.4
240,9
9,4
366,5
6.0
249.2
7.7
406.9
6.5
248.5
-1.8
402.9
15.4
259.8
5.7
413.2
3.0
246.2
18.3
418.6
-0.5
252.9
-13.4
433.2
-5.7
261.7
-14.7
449.8
-16.3
268.7
-9.2
461.3
3.7
2.7
-31.7
3.5
-5.2
3.5
-1.3
3.8
-10.6
2.7
5.5
2.6
20.0
270
271
274
275
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do
707.1
75.9
25.9
92.2
45.6
786,0
96,1
26,1
105.1
52.3
855.8
93.0
26.5
105.6
61.6
848.3
89.9
26.3
105.6
60.1
868.2
92.1
26.6
105.8
62.8
877.7
91.6
26.8
103.4
65.9
875.6
84.9
27.0
94.3
68.9
885.4
86.1
27.1
104.9
71.9
906.6
94.6
27.4
122.5
75.9
-0.2
-7.3
0.7
-8,8
4.6
1.1
1.4
0.4
11.2
4.4
2.4
9.9
1.1
16.8
5.6
280
282
264
286
288
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
173.4
52.6
214.4
74.4
207.5
77,0
206.3
71.5
196.4
65.5
202.9
86.5
166.6
75.V
165.0
113.8
187.7
84.6
-17.9
-12.3
-1.0
49.9
13.8
-25.7
290
292
do
23.3
102.9
-5.1
25.7
110.8
3.5
17.3
119.5
-6.3
17.1
118.6
-1.0
9.9
120.7
0.2
18.1
122.9
.24.6
21.5
27.9
125.2 127.4
-56.0 -104.2
36.0
130.0
-62.9
18.8
1.9
-31.4
29.8
1.8
-48.2
29.0
2.0
41.3
294
296
298
828,4
10.8
94.4
32.9
44,2
812.5
8.7
94.0
24.0
33.6
818.9
8.2
96.5
25.7
32.6
818.1
5.0
94.1
23.6
38.9
793.1
10.9
89.2
20.4
33.6
791.8
-11.7
83.8
17.1
do
785.4
7.0
83.7
34.3
39.1
800.7
-17.1
80.3
17.5
33.7
810.6
-2.3
80.4
19.4
39.2
-0.2
-22.6
-6.1
-15.2
-20.5
1.1
-5.4
-4.2
1.2
26.2
1.2
14.8
0.1
10.9
16.3
273
246
247
248
249
do
61.0
57.3
56.5
56.3
56.5
57.0
57.4
58.3
58.9
0.7
1.6
1.0
263
do
82.1
87,0
89.5
89.5
89.4
89.3
90.2
90.9
91.2
1.0
0.8
0.3
267
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
26.3
12,4
64,6
54.1
66.8
94.7
127.6
132.9
117.2
32.9
5.3
-15.7
207
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Total, current dollars
Total, 1958 dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars.
Automobiles, current dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, current dollars
A4.
240.
241.
242.
243.
244.
245.
1158.0 1294,9 1397.4 1383.8 1416.3 1430.9 1416.6 1440.9 1503.6
792.5 839.2 821.2 627.1 823.1 804.0 780.0 783.6 808.3
146.1 154.3 170.2 167.3 172.1 178.0 181.6 183.9 186.0
5/544 6/154 6/592 6/537 6,677 6/731 6/652 6/753 7/030
3,794 3/988 3/874 3/907 3/880 3/782 3/663 3/673 3/779
National and Personal Income
220.
222.
224.
225.
226.
230.
231.
232.
233.
234.
236.
237.
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
1958=100
Ann. rate, dol. ..
do
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Gross private domestic investment, total
Fixed investment, total nonresidential
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures .
Fixed investment, producers' durable equip. .
Fixed investment, residential structures
Change in business inventories, total 2
A5. Foreign Trade
250. Net exports of goods and services2
252. Exports
253. Imports
A6.
260.
262.
264.
266.
Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
Total
Federal
National defense
State and local
A7.
270.
271.
274.
275.
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
Final Sales and Inventories
Final sales, durable goods
Change in business inventories, dur. goods2 .
Final sales, nondurable goods
Change in bus. inventories, nondur. goods2 ..
A8. National Income Components
280.
282.
284.
286.
288.
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adj.
Net interest
A9.
Saving
290. Gross saving, total
292. Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2
A10.
do
do
Real GNP (1958 dollars)
273.
246.
247.
248.
249.
263.
Final sales. 1958dollars
Change in bus. inventories, 1958 dollars2
Fixed investment, nonresidential, 1958 dollars .
Fixed investment, residential struc, 1958 dol. .
Gross auto product, 1958 dollars
Federal Government purchases of goods
and services, 1958 dollars
267. State and local government purchases of
goods and services, 1958 dollars
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do
E1. Actual and Potential GNP
207.
GNP gap (potential less actual), 1958 dol. 2
5
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
Average
1973
1974
1st Q
1975
2d Q
1975
3dQ
1975
Aug.
1975
Sept.
1975
Oct.
1975
Aug.
to
Sept.
1975
Sept.
to
Oct.
1975
1st Q
to
2dQ
1975
2dQ
3dQ
1975
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Composite Indexes
12 leading indicators:3
New index, original trend
New index, reverse trend adjusted
Old index, reverse trend adj. (810)
1967=100 .
. . . do .
. do .
124.0
166.1
163.4
110.1
154.7
171,2
91.5
132.2
153.0
97.0
142.0
160.5
102.4
151.7
171.9
102.6
152.1
171.9
102.5
152.5
174.0
102.0
152.4
175.4
-0.1
0.3
1.2
-0.5
-0.1
0.8
6.0
7.4
4.9
5.6
6.8
7.1
4 coincident indicators, new index .
6 lagging indicators, new index. . . .
.do .
.do .
171.4
159.3
169.8
190.7
149.7
193.9
148.6
180.7
154.3
174.8
154.6
174.8
156.9
174.0
158.8
176.2
1.5
-0.5
1.2
1.3
-0.7
-6.8
3.8
-3.3
.do .
.do .
102.0
120.3
123.2
118.6
118.1
92.8
114.9
133.1
125.0
110.6
82.3
104.0
112.1
116.4
89.4
84.5
109.3
112.3
119.9
96.4
88.9
114.0
115.4
124.9
101.7
89.3
114.2
116.6
124.5
98.8
88.6
114.1
117.1
125.5
105.1
NA
113.8
117.4
127.8
NA
-0.8
-0.1
0.4
0.8
6.4
-0.3
0.3
1.8
40.7
40.0
39.0
39.1
39.6
39.7
39.
39.8
2.4
3.6
2.7
4.0
2.8
4.0
2.6
3.7
451
1.7
LEADING INDICATOR
SECTORS
813. Marginal employment adjustments . .
814. Capital investment commitments . . .
815. Inventory investment and purchasing
816. Profitability
817. Sensitive financial flows
.do .
.do.
.do.
810
NA
2.7
5.1
0.2
3.0
7,8
0.3
0.0
0.3
1.3
2.7
3.6
0.0
-0.3
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.3
0.3
0.4
432
1.7
-2.0
-0.2
4.2
0.0
8.8
0,5
13.2
0.8
83
0.0
0.0
0.0
9.2
46
149,50 150.81 146.50 145.44 146.44 146.81 147.15 147.96
76,896 78/413 76,864 76,438 76,992 77/023 77/275 77/492
80/957 82/443 80/821 80,959 81,795 81/884 81/872 82/019
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.6
0.3
0.2
-0.7
-0.6
0.2
0.7
0.7
1.0
48
41
42
NA
5.2
4.3
2.6
4.2
5.5
813
814
815
816
817
B1. Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
* 1 . Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg.
21. Average weekly overtime hours,
production workers, manufacturing2
2. Accession rate, manufacturing2
* 5 . Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted4)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted 4 ) 2
Hours
.do .
Per 100 employ.
3.8
4.8
3.2
4.2
2.4
3,3
Thousands
Per 100 employ.
240
0.9
349
1.5
548
2.9
500
2.4
434
1.6
442
1.5
1967=100
126
110
76
76
83
83
21
2
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Job Vacancies:
46. Help-wanted advertising
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments .
• 4 1 . Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 4 ) 2 .
45. Average weekly insured unemployment
rate (inverted 4 ) 2
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(inverted 4 ) 2
Ann. rate, billion
man-hours
Thousands
do
4.9
5.6
8.4
8.9
8.4
8.4
8,3
8.6
0.1
-0.3
-0.5
0.5
43
2.7
3.5
6.0
6.8
5.9
5.8
5.7
5.5
0.1
0.2
-0.8
0.9
45
2.3
2.7
4.8
5.7
5.2
5.0
5.3
5.2
-0.3
0.1
-0.9
0.5
40
0.9
1.0
2.0
2.8
3.1
3.1
3.1
2.8
0.0
0.3
-0.8
-0.3
44
1967=100
1294.9 1397.4 1416.6 1440.9 1503.6
780.0 783.6 808.3
839.2 821.
125.6 124,8 111.6 110.4 114.1
114.0
116.5
1.8
0.4
1.7
0.5
-1.1
4.4
3.2
3.4
200
205
47
Comprehensive Income:
*52. Personal income
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., construction .
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
1055.0 1150.5 1193.4 1220.5 1255.2 1255.9 1270.V 1283.6
247.6 266,2 257.3 257.2 265.4 265.8 269.5 272.7
1.2
1.4
1.0
1.2
2.3
0.0
2.8
3.2
52
53
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Final sales
*54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores, deflated
Bil.dol
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
Mil. dol
do
143.84
1279.6
41/943
33/47'
171.58 172.35 173.28
NA
1509.1
49,684 49/925 49/473 49/955
32,223 32/350 32/000 32/253
0.5
-0.9
-1.1
1.0
0.8
1.
2.5
3.4
2.0
4.9
2.5
3.8
1.8
56
57
54
59
1967=100
Number
102.5 106.3
117.9 112.
27/443 26/584 24,54; 26,661
0.8
-1.3
3,7
8.6
6.4
12
13
7.2
-2.7
0.5
-2.3
1.9
10
11
24
.do.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and
over (inverted 4 ) 2
B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production:
*200. GNP in current dollars
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
164.10
1383,2
53/786
56/191
161.40
1435.8
46,290
31/015
163.64
1471.9
47,855
31/643
116.0
B3. Fixed Capital Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries
8. Construction contracts, total value
*10. Contracts and orders for plant, equipment .
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing .
24. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondefense .
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial buildings
28. New private housing units started, total . . .
*29. New building permits, private housing
Bil. dol
1967=100
Bil.dol
do
do
Mil. sq. feet
floor space . . .
Ann. rate, thous
1967=100
113.1 112.6
NA 28/708
113.5
NA
112.0
NA
NA
NA
NA
41.16
184
12.28
11.13
10.32
44.42
171
13.54
14.22
11.53
36.50
141
11.39
11.46
9.86
39.38
182
12.78
11.08
10.25
42.20
177
12.85
10.8
10.44
42,69
208
13.98
42.23
157
11.93
42.78
166
12.21
10.39
10.21
10.75
-1.7
5,3
7.9
29.1
12.2
-3.3
4.0
85.73
2/045
157.1
72.90
1/336
91.
46.87
995
59.4
50.74
1/068
77.5
48.66
1,257
90.0
43.25
1/269
85.7
50.1
1,26b
54.10
1/458
94.1
15.9
-0.1
10.2
7.9
15.0
-0.3
8.3
7.3
30.5
-4.1
17.7
16.1
9
28
29
-0.9
-1.1
-2.8
-2.9
-0.3
-4.0
96
97
94.
-1.1
-24.5
-14.7
1.3
5.7
2.3
6
8
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries5 . .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.5 . . .
6
Bil.dol., EOP .
do . . . .
109.86 129.94 120.10 116.75 116.36 H7.41 116.36 115.08
37.11 49.79 49.08 47.64 45.74
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
Average
1973
1st Q
1975
1974
2d Q
1975
3dQ
1975
Aug.
1975
Aug.
to
Sept.
1975
Oct.
1975
Sept.
1975
Sept.
to
Oct.
1975
1st Q
to
2dQ
1975
2dQ
to
3dQ
1975
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B3. Fixed Capital Investment—Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
*61. Business expend., new plant and equip
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
99.74 111.92 114.57 112.46
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
0,9
61
-1.8
-0.7
69
-1 1 8
25 5
24.3
245
31
-1 8
134.71 152.81 153.03 150.24 149.21 149.95 149.00
do
NA
-0.6
NA
5.6
NA
-10.2
NA
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in bus. inventories, all indus.2
•31. Change, mfg. and trade inven., book value2 .
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories2
20. Change in mfrs.' inventories of materials,
supplies, book value2
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or l o n g e r 2 ®
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries 2 ®
25. Chg. in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus.2 . .
15.4
26.7
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
Percent
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
Percent
do
Bil. dol
46.6
-10.4
-18.8
5.5
15.8
-8.4
63
55
32
29
30
28
37
42
9
5
-3
1
6.4
13.9
1.5
-10.3
-5.4
-6.5
-2.2
NA
4.3
NA
-11.8
4.9
20
78
83
62
56
56
58
58
62
0
4
.6
0
26
88
2.41
66
1.67
17
-3.28
24
-1.12
37
-0.13
36
0.20
44
-1.05
45
-1.28
8
-1.25
1
-0.23
7
2.16
13
0.99
32
25
224.40 271.05 268.45 263.75 265.13 264.66 265.13
37.95 46.73 47.73 46.83 47.02 46.60 47.02
NA
NA
0.2
0.9
NA
NA
-1.8
-1.9
0.5
0.4
71
65
0.1
-1.6
23
13.0
-1.6
19
12.8
11.4
16.9
15.7
16
18
0 9
0 6
22
15
17
34
35
55
55
58
37
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
*71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value5 . . . .
65. Mfrs.' inven. of finished goods, book value5 .
B5.
Bil. dol., EOP . . .
do
Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices®
1967=100
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks®
Profits and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits, after taxes, current dol. . .
18. Corporate profits, after taxes, 1958 dollars..
22. Ratio, profits to income originating in
corporate business2
15. Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg. 2 . .
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars
173.1
219,0
181.2
181.3
178.4
179.6
184.2
181.9
2.6
1941-43=10 . . .
107.43
82.84
78.81
89.07
87.62
85.71
84.67
88.57
-1.2
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
72.9
50.2
85.0
53.1
62.3
35.9
70.3
40.0
82.2
46.3
11.2
12.1
5.6
116.1
129.0
81,3
9.3
10.2
11,5
i 106.1
114.5
! 79.0
115.8
109.6
62.5
113.6
115.4
67.1
74.3
125.9
0.9
129.2
154.1
1.9
153.8
168.3
0.3
168.0
170.2
0.2
169.4
172.2
0.6
172.2
131.1
146,5
157.5
158.8
157.1
0 8
0.978
121.7 132.5
1.043
145.3
1.034
148.3
1.022
149.0
Percent
Cents
1967=100
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
5.0
3.8
4.4
-1.2
4.6
115.0
116.2
116.7
1.0
0.4
-1.9
8.9
7.4
I 3
NA
1.6
11.4
10,7
172.2
0.6
172.3
173.1
0.7
173,0
174.7
1.2
174.5
0.5
0.1
0.4
0.9
0.5
0.9
1.1
-0.1
0.8
1.2
0.4
1.7
NA
ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities® .
55c. Chg. in whsle. prices, indus. commod., S/A 2 .
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods® . . .
1967=100
Percent
1967=100
1
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
63. Unit labor cost, total private economy
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
Dollars
1967=100
1
0.879
148.9
—1
l
63
m 1
9
0.5
68
62
-8.82
85
149.0
149.8
0.1
6.5
n o
-o.v
2.1
2.85
-0.82
0.81
10.26
4.02
-1.13
-0.75
5.78
-7.02
102
7.28 -1.65
9.74
NA
5.87 21.31
6.68
NA
-0.50
NA
3.28
NA
5.68
9.02
1.65
2.62
-5.68
5.17
13.44
9.48
103
33
112
113
110
B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
85. Change in money supply (M1) 2
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits
at commercial banks (M2) 2
103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at
banks and nonbank institutions (M3) 2
33. Change in mortgage debt 2
112. Change in business loans2
*113. Change in consumer installment debt 2
110. Total private borrowing
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures ( i n v e r t e d 4 ) ® . .
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inv. 4 ) 2 5 .
Ann.rate.percent.
5.98
4.66
0.88
11.14
2.32
2.86
2.04
do
8.51
6.99
7.52
13.30
6.28
5.90
4.77
6.55
9.79 15.47
8.50
9.79
9.43
48.01 35.51 28.11 37.13 42.30 38.22
21.00 21.97 -22.91 -21.26 -7.82 -18,72
8.41 -2.40
20.08
6.00
0.22
9.70
177.64 167.82 95.04 107.43 120.08
7.78
47.96
2.59
12.6b
do
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do
Mil. dol
Percent, EOP . . .
191.55 254.43 373.08 301.93 223.33 222.44 205.53
2.80
2.94
2.59
2.27
2.63
2.65
2.59
NA
NA
7.6
0,06
Mil. dol.
-1/389 -1/797
NA
NA
1 "5 0
11
19.1
0.31
26.0
0.04
Q
14
39
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 2 ®
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds r a t e 2 ®
114. Treasury bill r a t e 2 ®
116. Corporate bond y i e l d s 2 ®
115. Treasury bond y i e l d s 2 ®
117. Municipal bond y i e l d s 2 ®
..
Percent . . .
do .
do .
.do.
.do.
8.74
7.03
7.89
6.31
5.19
10.51
7.87
9.42
6.98
6.17
-60
84
-123
44
-136
42
180
-178
-144
207
93
6.30
5.87
9.16
6.70
6.65
5.42
5.40
9.61
6.97
6.96
6.16
6.33
9.72
7.09
7.23
6.14
6,46
9.70
7.11
7.17
6.24
6.38
9.89
7.26
7.44
5.82
6.08
9.54
7.29
7.39
0.10
-0.08
0.19
0.17
0.27
-0.42
-0.30
-0.35
0.01
-0.05
-0.88
-0.47
0.45
0.27
0.31
0.74
0.93
0.11
0.12
0.27
119
114
116
115
117
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
Average
1973
1974
1st Q
1975
2dQ
1975
3dQ
1975
Aug.
1975
Sept.
1975
Aug.
to
Sept.
1975
Oct.
1975
Sept.
to
Oct.
1975
1stQ
to
2dQ
1975
2dQ
to
3dQ
1975
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B6. Money and Credit-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt5
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding .
Bil.dol., EOP .
Bil. dol
Interest Rates:
109. Average prime rate charged by banks 2 ®
*67. Bank rates on short-term business l o a n s 2 ® . . .
118. Mortgage yields, residential 2 ®
Percent . . .
do .
do.
8.02
8.30
8.19
10.80
11.28
9.55
8.98
9.94
8.84
7.33
8.16
NA
7.56
8.22
9.40
7.65
Mil. dol.
.do .
do .
1967=100
Mil. dol. . .
119
5/905
2/343
189
5/786
-193
8/166
3/166
207
8/359
696
8/972
3/369
179
8/277
1/115
8/469
3/390
194
7/353
996
9/015
3/368
216
8/019
1/035
8/996
3/479
225
7/961
3/574
4/177
525
568
-840
84
-245 -2/672
-1/913 -4/761
-1/328 -2/094
3/178
2/230
2/003
-673
3/108
•3/267
5/259
4/784
4/061
1/611
1/104
-1/616
144.52 152.93
106.08 125.35
52.33 152.39 154.81 153.76 154.81
NA
31.13 125.39 122.16 121.57 121.79 122.28
0.7
0.2
NA
0.4
0.0
-4,4
1.6
-2.6
66
72
0.07
•1.65
-1.78
NA
0.23
0.06
NA
109
67
118
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
419
-5.6
0.6
8.4
-11.2
-119
6.4
-0.6
11.3
9.1
500
502
506
508
512
NA
NA
NA
NA
289
4/923
2,081
2,554
2,058
2,284
•2,004
1,651
NA
NA
NA
NA
-815
6/539
250
515
517
519
521
522
-48,9
36.2
17.4
2.2
1.5
3.9
30.8
12.1
NA
600
601
602
264
616
621
648
625
1.6
2.1
0.0
2.1
211
781
781
750
7.89
7.96
0,24
9.74
9.53
0,42
976
9/165
3/286
210
8/189
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-59
1.9
-5.5
-6.7
2.9
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D1. Foreign Trade
500.
502.
506.
508.
512.
Merchandise trade balance2
Exports, excluding military aid
Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor vehicles,
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
General imports
D 2 . U.S. Balance of Payments
250.
515.
517.
519.
521.
522.
Balance on goods and services2
Bal. on goods, services, and remittances2 . . .
Balance on current account2
Balance on curr. acct. and long-term capital 2
Net liquidity balance2
Official reserve transactions balance2
Mil. dol. . .
do .
do.
do .
do .
.do .
D3. Federal Government Activities
600.
601.
602.
264.
616.
621.
648.
625.
Federal surplus or deficit, NIA 2
Federal receipts, NIA
Federal expenditures, NIA
National defense purchases
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Department obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products
Military contract awards in U.S
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do
Mil. dol
do
Bil.dol
Mil. dol
-5.6
258.5
264.2
74.4
7/085
1/571
1.71
2/954
-8.1
291.1
299.1
78.7
7/753
1/741
1.90
3/457
-54.4
284.1
338.5
84.7
7,780
1/761
1.83
3/499
•103.3
251.8
355.0
84.8
8/212
1/639
1.74
3/940
-67.1
295.7
362.7
86.1
8/529
2/143
1.95
NA
1958=100 .
1967=100 .
Percent . . .
1967=100 .
149.6
133.1
0.7
134.7
167.0
147.7
1.0
160.1
178.0
157.0
0.5
171.2
180.4
159.5
0.6
173.0
183.6
162.9
0.6
176.7
146.6
158.3
167.7
170.7
174.3
174.6
175,1
176.8
0.3
1.0
1.8
2.1
740
110.1
107,2
106.7
107.1
107.1
107.4
107.2
107.5
-0.2
0.3
0.4
0.0
741
95.73
148.8
111.8
115.1
113.6
90.97
161.9
109.6
112.0
110.4
88.15
170.8
108.6
110.3
108.4
90.26
173.9
109.0
111.5
109.9
91.51
177.2
108.9
114.4
112.8
91.82
91.70
91.66
-0.1
0.0
2.4
1.8
0.4
1.1
14
1.4
1.9
-0.1
2.6
2.6
859
745
746
770
858
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.0
-2.9
0.8
0.2
-7,0
0.6
1.2
4.9
841
842
843
-1.2
1.9
-4.9
850
851
-4.6
-5.8
-3.9
-3,5
852
853
41.3
-26.4
854
-5.8
0.2
14.8
-0.1
860
857
9/077
2/821
2.05
5/299
7/791
1/535
1.99
NA
162.8
163.6
0.2
0.5
176.7
177.7
NA
NA
1.15
NA
-14.2
-45.6
-2.9
NA
NA
NA
-42.2
NA
0.5
0.3
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.7
.
0.1
5.6
-6,9
-4,9
12.6
D4. Price Movements
211. Fixed wtd. price index, gross priv. product . . .
781. Consumer prices, all items@.
781c. Change in consumer prices, all items, S/A2 . . .
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities®
164.6
0.7
178.9
1.3
1.6
0.1
1.1
D5. Wages and Productivity
740. Average hourly earnings, production workers
in private nonfarm economy
741. Real average hourly earnings, production
workers in private nonfarm economy
859. Real spendable avg. weekly earnings,
nonagri. prod, or nonsupv. workers
745. Avg. hourly compensation, private nonfarm . .
746. Real avg. hourly comp., private nonfarm
770. Output per man-hour, total private economy .
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm . .
.do
.do
1967 dol.
1967=100
do
do
.
.
.
.
do .
D6. Civilian Labor Force and Major
Components
841. Total civilian labor force
842. Total civilian employment
843. Number of persons unemployed (inverted)4 .
.do .
.do .
88/716 91/011 91/810 92/514 93/084 93/146 93/191 93/443
84/410 85/936 84/146 84/311 85/283 85/352 85/410 85/441
7/773
5/076
7/664
8,203
7/794
7/802
8/002
4/306
E. A N A L Y T I C A L M E A S U R E S
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2 . .
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade . . .
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods industries . . .
853. Ratio, prod., bus. equip, to consumer goods .
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
personal income
860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to
persons unemployed
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing2 ®
Percent . . .
Ratio
83.0
1.47
79.0
1.51
68.2
1.67
67.0
1.62
68.9
1.54
1.54
1.53
NA
-0.6
NA
do .
1967=100 .
2.87
93.2
3.31
100.8
3.47
100.4
3.31
94.6
3.18
91.3
3.17
91.5
3.0b
91.5
NA
90.7
-2.8
0.0
NA
-0.9
Ratio
0.082
0.079
0.075
0.106
0.078
do .
Percent . . .
0.872
5.8
0.658
6.2
0.294
6.1
0.277
6.3
0.318
6.2
0.317
o.3ie
0.309
0.3
-2.8
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated b y ® , which appear to contain no seasonal movement. 'Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. NA = not available, a = anticipated.
EOP = end of period. S/A-seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). For complete series titles (including composition of composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" in the back of BCD.
x
For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual figures are
those published by the source agencies; otherwise, they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series) are averages of the data as shown in part II.
differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
For the latest month, new indexes are based on 11 components, old index on 9.
4
Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
8
Chart
Al
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(Aug.XApr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
16001500 14001300120011001000-
"TT
200. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate,toil,M . ]
900800-
r
700-
205. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q (am. rate, ML dol.)
600200190180170160150140130-
210. Implicit price deflator, Q (index: 195H0D)
215. Per capita GNP in current dollars, Q (an. rate, thous. dol.)
.22
S
217. Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars,
(ann. rate, thous. DOI.)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
B C D NOVEMBER 1975
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A2
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
(July) (May)
P
I
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
, 220.
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
10
NOVEMBER 1975
BCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A3
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
P
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
(Aug.)(Apr.)
(July) (May)
T
P
P
T
T
Annual rate, billiw dollars
232. Durable goods, total, current dollars, Q
3 3 . Durable goods, total excluding automobiles,
current dollars, Q
234. Automobiles, current dollars, Q
236. Nmdarable goods, total, orrent dollars, Q
237. Services, total, cirreit dollars, Q
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
BCD
NOVEMBER 1975
11
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A4
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
242. Nonresidential structures, Q
243. Producers' durable equipment, Q
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
12
NOVEMBER 1975
BCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A5
FOREIGN TRADE
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P
T
+20-
+15-
250. Net exports of goods and services, B
+10-
+5-
0-
-5-
Ml
-10
J
251 Exports of goals and s l i c e s , Q
253. Imports of goods and services,
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
BCD
NOVEMBER 1975
13
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A6
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
t"ji
'^
266. State arel local governments, Q
.t*000*^^
2602402202001801601401201008060-
40-
20-1
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
14
NOVEMBER 1975
BCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A7
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
1953 54
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
B C D NOVEMBER 1975
15
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A8
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
(July) (May)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
rate, billion dollars (current)
280. Compensation of employees, 0
284. Rental income of persons, Q
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment Q
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.
16
NOVEMBER 1975 B C D
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A9
SAVING
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P
T
290. Grass saving (private and government), Q
298. Bovemfflent serplus or deficit,
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
NOVEMBER 1975
17
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A10
REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July) (May)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
247. Fixed investment, nonresidents ^ * < "
residential stractires, 1958 dollars, I
/
of goods aid servicos, 1 B dollars, Q
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
56
67
68
89
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 70, and 72.
18
NOVEMBER 1975
ItCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A l l
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Gross National Product Shares
(Aug.)(Apr.)
(July) (May)
P
P
T
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
P
T
Hit
lilt
ii
SfUSS
T
[percent
230A. Personal conswi pUoQ expenditures as penHint
(win
Hi Mm
w t W H )
ftj^M^
i f ^ g S ^ f i
:
70 n
••. ' - : y
;
•'•'•'^•vi
.
. •"•:
'••
'•••"•
65-
tlf§l|L
illliil
IB*
IWHH
60J
20 n
15-
10-
5-
0J
245A. Change in
25QA. Net exports of goods aid
as percent of GWr Q
National Income Shares
80n
75-
70-
65J
10-
5-
0J
1953
54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
BCII
NOVEMBER
1975
19
Section
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart Bl
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
(July) (May)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
employees—Invited scale
1953 54
20
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
NOVEMBER 1975
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart Bl
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Aug.)(Apr.)
(July) (May)
P
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
P
P
T
T
1
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1987-100)
•cultural establishments (an. rate, HI
Emphqpees ot magriciiltBral payrolls (minis)
42. Persons engaged in nonagrioiltHral
activities (milliocs)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 75.
I B M ) NOVEMBER 1975
21
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Bl
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July) (May)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
Comprehensive Unemployment
rate, Wai (percent-inverted scale
Average wukly insured unemployment rate (percent—invKted scale)
234-
is/
A/
56-
Lagging I n d i c a t o r s
Long-Duration Unemployment
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
22
NOVEMBER 1975
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B2
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P
T
ii a m * Mbrs, Q (an. rate, Ml. M.)
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1975
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
NOVEMBER 1975
23
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B2
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July) (May)
P
T
1
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
Manufacturing ami trade sales (bil. dol
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production. Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
24
NOVEMBER 1975
IICII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
Formation of Business Enterprises
13. New business incorporations (thousands)
*6. Mew orders, durable goods industries (ML dol
8. Caistractioi contracts, total value (iidex: 1167=100;
MCD moving avg.-5-tern) 1
•10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment (bil. dol.)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1975
25
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (May)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
B B N e w Investment Commitments - Con. 1
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
18
;\r., :
16
14
/ \
1210-
11. New capital appropr iations, manfactyring,
>f
> *!
/ \
i (iH. m
/
B6W OTDCTS, capnBi gooos inoustriBs
Coflstroctlfli cootracts, e o m i ^ l i aid industrial
(nil. sq. f | i floor ana; «C8 wviag
avfWlW
Hew private housing units started, total (am. rate, millions;
MCD moving avg.--4-tenn)
•29. Men building permits, private housing units (index: 1967=108)
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1975
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 77 and 78.
26
NOVEMBER 1975
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P
T
(July) (May)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
160 M B i Backlog of Investment Commitments
140120-
drilled orders, Arable goods iMhstrits (Ml.
w.r
4p
100-
/
8060-
T
50-
m
40-
30-
97. BicWog of capital appropriations, maariacturiag, 0 (Ml. del)1
20-
Lagging Indicators
140120100-
61. Busffltss expenditures, new plant and equipment 0 (am. rate, bit. dol.)
8060180 160140120100-
ttadiinerv and Miiiiuiioiit sates and business constniGtion
esppdHnres (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
80-
60-
40-
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
IICII
NOVEMBER 1975
27
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B4
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(July) (May)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
245. Change in business inventories, Q
(ann. rale, bil. dot.)
* 31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
(ann. rate, Ml. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories
5025J
20. Change in book value, manufacturers inventories of
(ann. rate, bii. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
0-54f—J -10 J
26. Buying policy, production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer
7050J
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and 79.
28
NOVEMBER 1975
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B4
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (May)
P T
performance, percent of companies reporting slower
Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries
. dol.; MCD moving avg.--4-term)
Lagging Indicators
••.;
:
mitt
mm..
-• wins
ftSflll
f 1
;
• .fUft
300260-
,.. . Ill
:
:
Ullli
Si
ifiti
•
•71. • l v a l u e , manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. dol.)
i§||§!
220-
waii
180IliHii
140-
100-
lilii
liiii
^
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, fini:shed goods (bil. dol.) J
J^-'H
. ^*~S^
—
55-.
504540353025- •
20^ ^ 15-
1953 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74
1975
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1975
29
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B5
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Leading Indicators
(July) (May)
P
(Apr.) (Feb.)
(Aug.)(Apr.)
T
P
T
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
Sensitive Commodity Prices
*23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1967=100)
*19. Stock prises, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
Corporate profits after taxes, 0 (aa. rate, bil. dol.)
*% Current dollars
22. Ratio, profits (alter taxes) to income originating
/ " " " X i k corporate taSttss, B (percent)
1210-
8
J
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, manufacturing, 0 (cents)
53
J
130 120-
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index: 1967-100)
110-
100-
90-
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 79 and 80.
30
NOVEMBER 1975
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
B5
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P
T
34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Q (ann. rate, bil. dol
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1S58 dollars,
Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
Roughly Coincident Indicators
, industrial commodities (index: 1967=100)
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (index:
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
NOVEMBER 1975
31
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B5
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(July) (May)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
!ii
Ball
170-
111
m
J
Illlpi
liii
/•*
160-
/ so
150140130-
Unit labor cost, total private t c n a n y -
Mi
63. Index, Q (1967-100)
>^
120110-
mi
100-
film
63c. Cbaige over 1-quarter spans, Q (ann. rate, percent)
-5J
1.15-j
1.101.051.000.950.900.85-
68. Labor cost (coir, dol.) per n i t of real corporate product, Q (dollars)
0.80-
•62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
(index: 1967=1IKI)
110100-
nisi
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
9071
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
32
NOVEMBER 1975
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
in money sa^ily plus time deposits at banks and
institutions (M3) (am. rate, percent; Koving avg.-fi-
33. Change in mortgage debt (am. rats, Ml. dol.)
112. Change in business loans (ann. rate, bil. dol
MCD soviflg avg.--6-teri8)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
B I J ) NOVEMBER
1975
33
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (May)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
Total private borrowing, 0 (ann. rate, HI. M )
Credit Difficulties
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
34
NOVEMBER 1975
KM)
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P
T
(July) (May)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
> 93. Free reserves (biL dol.—inverted scale)
119. Federal tails rate (percent)
116. Corporate bond yields (percent)
117. Municipal timd yields (percent)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
NOVEMBER 1975
35
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Lagging Indicators
(July) (May)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
: weekly reporting large commercial banks
(bil. dol.)
prime rate charged by banks (percent)
rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent)
yields, residential (percent)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
36
NOVEMBER 1975
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B7
COMPOSITE INDEXES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July)(May)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
of twelve leading iidicators, reverse trend adjusted1
coincident indicators
Ilii
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58 59
60
61 62
63 64
65 66 67
68 69
70
71
72
73 74 1975
NOTE: The old index of 12 leading indicators is shown in appendix G.
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.
KCII
NOVEMBER 1975
37
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B7
COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.
Leading Indicator Subgroups
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)(May)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) i Feb.)
PI
(Dec.)(Nov.)
P
T
I Index:
| » 1 1 MargiBl emloviKflt adnstmeats
100-
908070-
and purchasing (series 23,25,31, 37)
an
140-i
130120-
J^
816. ProfitJiitfty (series 16,17,19)
110100908070130-
117. Sensitive financial flows (series 33,85,112,113)
120110-
1948
49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 6&
65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 83.
38
NOVEMBER 1975
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST
Selected Indicators by Timing
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July)(May)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
*6. few orders, dirilit goods M&stries (HI
1948 49
50
01 52
53
54
56
56
57
58
59 60
61 62
63 64
65
66. 67
-""? «'••• 70
71
72 73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 77.
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1975
39
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July)(May)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
vaise, manufacturing and trade inventories
(ann. rate, bil. fol, MCD moving avg.--6 term)
materials prices (index: 1967-100)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58 59
60
61 62
63 64
65
66 67
68
69
70
71
72
73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and 79.
40
NOVEMBER 1975
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Selected Indicators by Timing
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July)(May)
P T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
h consumer installment debt (an. rate, Ml ihil)
Roughly Coincident Indicators
807570-
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
65-
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58 59
60
61 62
63 64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 79, 80, and 81.
KCII
NOVEMBER 1975
41
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July)(May)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
1600150014001300120011001000900-
Personal Income (am. rate, Iii. H . )
1948 49 50 51 52
53 54 55
56 57 58 59 60 61 62
63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70
71 72 73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
42
NOVEMBER 1975
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(Aug.)(Apr.)
(July)(May)
P
T
T
P
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
P
T
15 weeks and over (percent—isverted
new (dart and t M M M t , Q (ann. rate, Ml. dol.)
value,raanrtacturingand
inventories (fail, dol.)
•62. Labor cost per uift if outpt, mariafacturing (index: 1867410)
•72. Cownercial and WusUial loans outstanding,
reporting large commercial banks (bil. dol.)
ill
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61 62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 78, 79. 80. and 82.
KCII
NOVEMBER 1975
43
Chart C l
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
AGGREGATE SERIES
(Apr.)
P
(Feb.)
T
(Dec.)
P
•iH
mm
IS II
H I
(Nov.)
T
61. BUSJHSS expenditures for aew plant and equipment, all industries, Q
150-
•ill
130-
liiil
120-
140-
m
110-
>
nil.
10090-
i |
(a) Actual expenditures (am.
8070-
60-
sil
50-
i
•
tlllH
/
40-
30 J
<
.. .^.Jt
(b) Se
T
^,,,...
:1;1 . T T
|*pi *^ i.
1 ^li
i
as oercent of act
*
1
1i1
T T1
tilt•iiiH
106 -i
E!
T
ITT It •tr?
t
102
100-
98-
^iiil
96
(0 First
TTf
104
106-
HrillTTaitT.il
Bl
1041021009896-
1957
58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 1976
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
44
NOVEMBER 1975
BCII
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
Cl
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Dec.)
P
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
T
140 120 -
H ioo80-
60 J
40-
percent considered high less percent /
30-
\
'•••• . ^ - • ^
•
20-
.
V .
10-
0J
10 -i
IIWS' capacity: i«GMt
CORSififiFN fflMmH8i0
nctsslw, Q (parent--inverted scale)
f
/
/
\
%_^
Q
3040-
4
.••—*
20-
50-
•*«•. 435. Index of consun
\
\
...••••• -^ v -.-••••• v * v
\ /
I (1st. a1966=100)
100 90-
/
\
8070-
/ •
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
/
6075 1976
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
P NOVEMBER 1975
45
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.)
P
(Nov.)
T
&
D440. Heworders
D442. Net profits, matwfactaring awl trails (4-0 span)1
M M . Met sales, manefactahng and trade
D446. tomber of employees, manufacturing ari trade (4-Q span)1
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
1976
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84 and 85.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
46
NOVEMBER 1975
ItCII
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(Dec.)
P
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.)
T
tffhsiQfl iidexes: ptrctRt rising
it
D450. Level of iBveflttries, manuteturiBg a«I tr^« (4-Q span)
100-
1462. Selling prices •Mtrfactirinf <4-0 spaV
V S .
9080-
_j
{ Vwv*
VTr
•
v
7060-
'\
b
*
J^
"^"^^•^•^.^•t
,••-••••1
^..g.or*"
50100-
s
100 -
D466. Sellii? prices, retail trade (4-0 spa) 1
„
•
,
P--
90-
miipiujMurj
^i
\r
80706050-
1957 58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 74
75 1976
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
NOVEMBER 1975
47
Chart D l
FOREIGN TRADE
(July) (May)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
580. Merchandise trade balance
dot.; MCD moviif avz.-6-term)
502. Exports, except military aid (bil. dol.j MCD moving avg.-B-te™)
506. Export onltrs, durables except motor vehicles
(Ml. do).; MCD moving avg.-6-tetH)
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
? (index: 1967=100; MCD roving avg.-4-tem)
512. General inports (Ml. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-tenB)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
48
NOVEMBER 1975
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
P
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
(Aug.)(Apr.)
(July) (May)
T
P
P
T
T
+6-.
+4-
| | 0 . Balance on goods and services
USB
+2-
0-
515. Balance on goods, services and remittances
-2+6isptii
Iiii
+4-
1
1
11
1
j§|.
Balance OB current account
+2-
0-
Pi
iwilii!
Jilt
-2-
•li
-4-
IB 111
••
PHI
iffiii
+4-
lilt.
MM.
Official reserve transactions balance
+2-
111!
•in
iiiis
-2-
-4iliii
ifili
m
isi
i|iH
.
fifiiifli
•itiii!
-6-
iillt
SHI
^1
IPl!
-8-
•11
iiiitf
.n
•. MB
lUii
iitw
• -ii
H i
.•
••
. : i ^ ^ •:....
HI
1953
-10-
. ..
••
Hii
sit
iiii
. Si
54 55 56 57
-12-»
Ulil
5859
60
61
62 63 64 65 66 67
68
70
71 72 73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 87.
I M . J P NOVEMBER 1975
49
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
(July) (May)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
lilies to all foreipers, oststanding at end of period
532. U«M art cartaia mttpH UaUIIUes
nreip oTnciai dgeocies, outsuwing at
Hi
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
534. U.S. official reserve assets-res^e position at
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 87. End-of-year figures are used prior to 1960.
50
NOVEMBER 1975
BCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
204192180168156144132120108-
968472J
152-i
144136128120112104-
258., Bstance on goods aid services
9688807264566056524844403632282420-
16-
Invested income, military sales and
expendlufgs, aid other services—
12-
541. Imports
8-
4J
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 87. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
BCII
NOVEMBER 1975
51
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(July) (May)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
Investment Income, Military Sales
Annual rate, billion dollars
nd Expenditures, and Other Services
3 Excess of receipts (inflow)
1 Excess of payments (outflow)
32-i
28-
24-
20-
16-
12-
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
4-
0-
143. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.
8-
Travel—
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
4-
0-
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.
8-
Military sales and expenditures—
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad
4-
0-
546. Military sate to foreigners
16-
12-
Transportation and other services—
8-
4-
549. Payments
0-
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
52
NOVEMBER 1975 B M I
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
P
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
(Aug.)(Apr.)
(July) (May)
P
T
P
T
T
+12-i
Capital Movements Plus Government
Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
mml •
Excess of receipts (inflow)
Direct investments
iftjfftii
+4-
0-
Hill
/
*
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
-4+8-
+4-
0-
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
-4-
> i M . Boverpinertgraitsanilcapitaltraiisactioiis.net
0-
-4-
3§ii§
-8-
11
+4-
. Banking and other capita! transactions, net.
Hi
i l ••
AA
11 .:
11 -
". llpif:;
l ^ j ^ V V 'VS-i/
1
0-
v
-9 V \i
'••3*0 tSP
B
ill!'
Ililii
i l
-4-
1 III
f»
111
11
JS ; ; I] ;
-8-
-12.32
S
-16-
-20-
-24-
-28-
-Sit'ill*
-32-
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
licit
NOVEMBER 1975
53
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D3
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(July) (May)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
Receipts and Expenditures
600. Federal surplus er deficit, natioial income and product aeconts, Q (am. rate, till, lot.)
/ ~\
jr
v*
801. Federal receipts, national income and product accounts, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.)
602. Federal expNtbres, national tocom aid predict accents, Q (am. rate, bil. iel.)
150-
100 -
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 89.
54
NOVEMBER 1975
BCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D3
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P
T
264. National defense purchases, fl (ann. rato, Ml. dol.)
616. Defense Department obligations, total
(bil. *rf.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
Department obligations,
647. New orto^, defense prodBCts industries
(bil. doL; MCD moving avg.--6-term)
648. New orders, defense
products (bil. dol.; MCD
moving avg.~6-term)
625. Military contract awards i i U.S.
(bil. W . ; MCD fflwiog avg.-6-tem
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
LLMM
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 89.
not
NOVEMBER 1975
55
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS
(July) (May)
P
(Apr.) (Feb.)
(Aug.)(Apr.)
T
P
T
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
T
P
T
190180170 •
160 150-
211. Fixed weighted price index, gross private product
(variable weights prior to 1965), Q (index: 1958=100)
140 130 -
180170-
iBfcX: 1967==100
160150-
y
140130-
Consumer prices—
120«
180-
781. All items
170160150140130120-
784. Services
iB-
200190180-
/
170-
r/ E
sE
150-
-—
^~—
, — ^ ^
r
/
no
160-
140130-
Fnml
120
|
UK.
A
A/vVv
A
***
783. Commodities less foods
Change
price index, gross private product,
mange in
HI fixed
mm weighted
we
over 1-quarter spai
%
781c. Change in consumer price index, ail items (seasonally adj.)—
AAMAAXA*]
One-month spans1
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
1
One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
56
110-
NOVEMBER 1975
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con.
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P
T
Wholesale prices-
58. Manufactured goods
751. Processed foods and feeds
55c. Changetowholesale price index, industrial commodities (seasonally adj.)
1953 54
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
1
One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 91.
ItCII
NOVEMBER 19/5
57
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D5
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
(July) (May)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
Average hourly wirings of
private wrfani ecwony (anal M i r i e r to 1964)
liar earnings (index: 1967=100)
741. Real earnings (index
spendable » g . weekly eaniigs, D W f r t profifliSi
•Hsupervisorv workers (1967 dollars)
Average beirtj cenpeisatioe, aJi anileyees
private MHfarl econony—
745. Ckrrent dollar cmpMsatien, Q
(ifldex: 1967=100)
746. Real cwupensatiM,
(index: 1967=101)
77S.: ftatnit per nan-boar, total private
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.
58
NOVEMBER 1975
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D5
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con.
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P
T
745c. Cirrent dollar compensation
Ii.
Nj
. SSI .. ; , .}
I I I .',
Wm
+5-
0-
Four-quarter span
lilt
.•
: • • • •
iifUfl
1^91
/ « c . Keai compensation
-garter span (ann. rate)
Negotiated
^
j
decisions,
lit if
748. First year avg. changes
UK 8
111
749. Average changes over
contract, 0 (ann. rate[
W0k
770c. Change in output per man-hour, total private
+50-5-
-10J
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1975
'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.2One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against
the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans. See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown pn pages 92 and 93.
NOVEMBER 1975
59
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D6
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
(July) (May)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
[Civilian Labor Force
845. Females 20 years and over
846. Both sexes, 16-19 years of afe
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 94.
60
NOVEMBER 1975
Chart E l
ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P
T
1953 54
55
56
57
58
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 95.
'Trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 3d quarter 1975. See special note on page 95.
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1975
61
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E2
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
'July) (May;
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
100-j
959085807570651.8-
851. Rate, [•vettories to sales, •awfactMiHg » d trade (ratio)
1.71.61.51.4-
&
1.3-
o.io-j
saviflf ts disposable personal incone, Q (ratio)
854.
0.08-
"X^AA
y^M
0.06-
•f M S M S uenolOYSd (ratio)
953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
6J
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 96.
62
NOVEMBER 1975
BCD
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E 3
DIFFUSION INDEXES
L e a d i n g Indicators
(July) (May)
P
T
111
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
if fl
jjflJfi
ftrafters,raawfactiriBg--21industries (9-rao. span—, 1
100-
Iftf
.jr.,;
( i - M ••••A
lip?
j • Jyf
Ip
^
T
"
^
'
'
••;•
'
-
500-
piis MBlrits-S HdBStries ( N N . spa—, 1-mc.:
a{)profHiatioas-17 industries (34 span—, 1-8 span
BM. Profits, w«ifactiiriflg, FNCB-aboit 1,000
(4-Q span—, 1-fl
prices-13 iadustrial materials (9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo.
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 97 and 98.
licit
NOVEMBER 1975
63
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E3
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P
T
(July) (May)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
Bonagncultural payrolls—30 industries (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo.
100 n
500
production--24 industries (6-mo. s p a n — , 1
J
100-i
500-1
100-1
50-
0J
100500-
HIS
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 98.
64
NOVEMBER 1975
ItCII
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E5
RATES OF CHANGE
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.)
(Feb.)
(Dec.)
(Nov.)
P
T
P
T
change,
200. (c) 6NP in current dollars (1-Q span)
Sftflii
+20+15+10+50-5-
Jilll
.215. (c) 6ltf in constant dollars (1-Q spaa)
Ma-hwrs it mafricaltifal K M I islmwts
47. Wex oi Mdistrial DfOdBctioi
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75 1976
To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide," pp. 117-120.
BCII
NOVEMBER 1975
65
Section
F
Chart Fl
CONSUMER PRICES
(July) (May)
P T
1953 54
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
55
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
56
57
58
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
59
60
61
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 103.
66
NOVEMBER 1975
Section F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart F2
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
P
1953
P
T
54
55
56
57
P
T
58
(Dec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
(Aug.)(Apr.)
(July) (May)
59
60
P
T
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
T
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 103 and 104.
NOVEMBER 1975
67
Section F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart
STOCK PRICES
F3
(Aug.)CApr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
Stock prices—
J
^
^
40-*
72.
73
74
1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 104.
68
NOVEMBER 1975
HCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
m
Year
and
quarter
b. Difference
210. Implicit price deflator
205. Constant (1958) dollars
200. Current dollars
a. Total
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
b. Difference
a. Total
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
b. Difference
a. Total
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
(Index:
1958=100)
(Index:
1958=100)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
+12.2
+10.5
+9.5
+12.7
770.9
786.6
798.1
814.2
+11.8
+15.7
+11.5
+16.1
+6.4
+8.4
+6.0
+8.3
144.6
145.3
146.5
148.0
+1.9
+0.7
+1.2
+1.5
+5.5
+1.9
+3.3
+4.1
+44.2
+29.0
+31.0
+35.1
+15.5
+9.6
+10.1
+11.2
832.8
837.4
840.8
845.7
+18.6
+4.6
+3.4
+4.9
+9.5
+2.2
+1.6
+2.3
150.0
152.6
155.7
158.9
+2.0
+2.6
+3.1
+3.2
+5.5
+7.3
+8.3
+8.6
,1,358.8
1,383.8
1,416.3
1,430.9
+14.8
+25.0
+32.5
+14.6
+4.5
+7.6
+9.7
+4.2
830.5
827.1
823.1
804.0
-15.2
-3.4
»4.0
-19.1
-7.0
-1.6
-1.9
-9.0
163.6
167.3
172.1
178.0
+4.7
+3.7
+4.8
+5.9
+12.3
+9.4
+11.9
+14.4
1,416.6
1,440.9
rl,503.6
-14.3
+24.3
r+62.7
-3.9
+7.0
r+18.6
780.0
783.6
r808.3
-24.0
+3.6
r+24.7
-11.4
+1.9
r+13.2
181.6
183.9
rl86.0
+3.6
+2.3
r+2.1
r+4.7
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1,115.0
1,143.0
1,169.3
1,204.7
+31.8
+28.0
+26.3
+35.4
1,248.9
1,277.9
1,308.9
1,344.0
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter...:...
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth auartqr , ..
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
•(•GROSS NATIONAL
• H i PRODUCT-Con.
Year
and
quarter
215. Per capita
GNP, current
dollars
217. Per capita
GNP, constant
(1958) dollars
Q [
220. National
income in current dollars
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
222. Personal
income in current dollars
Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
+8.4
+5.1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
5,^54
5,478
5,593
5,750
3,702
3,770
3,817
3,886
912.3
932.5
954.3
987.0
913.3
930.9
950.3
985.0
774.7
790.0
807.2
838.1
566.2
573.6
581.9
600.1
3,720
3,787
3,861
4,000
2,719
2,749
2,784
2,864
5,951
6,079
6,214
6,368
3,968
3,983
3,992
4,007
1,027.6
1,051.2
1,077.3
1,106.3
1,013.6
1,039.2
1,068.0
1,099.3
869.5
892.1
913.9
939.4
615.1
618.2
621.8
622.9
4,143
4,244
4,339
4,452
2,931
2,941
2,952
2,952
6,429
6,537
6,677
6,731
3,929
3,907
3,880
3,782
1,118.8
1,130.2
1,155.5
1,165.4
1,112.5
1,134.6
l,n.68.2
1,186.9
950.6
966.5
993.1
1,008.8
610.3
603.5
602.9
594.8
4,497
4,565
4,681
4,745
2,887
2,850
2,842
2,798
6,652
6,753
r7,030
3,663
3,673
r3,779
1,150.7
1,175.4
pi,227.0
1,193.4
1,220.5
1,015.5
1,078.5
591.0
620.2
rl,255.2
rl,079.6
r6ll.4
4,768
5,055
r5,047
2,775
2,907
r2,858
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
19/4
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Cnmnlete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9,10, and 65.
ItCII NOVEMBER 1975
69
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
J ^ P E R S O N A L CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Year
and
quarter
230. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars
232. Durable
goods, total, in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
233. Durable
goods, total except
autos, in current
dollars
234. Automo Diles
in current dol ars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rat 2,
bil. dol.
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
237. Services in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
701.5
720.6
736.8
757.2
512.8
523.2
531.2
542.2
112.1
116.2
121.2
124.3
75.5
77.9
79.4
82.4
36.6
38.3
41.8
41.9
288.4
297.4
302.0
310.9
301.0
307.0
313.6
322.0
781.7
799.0
816.3
823.9
552.9
553.7
555.4
546.3
132.4
132.1
132.4
124.3
87.0
87.3
87.0
86.3
45.4
44.8
45.4
38.0
323.3
332.7
343.8
352.1
325.9
334.2
340.1
347.4
840.6
869.1
901.3
895.8
539.7
542.7
547.2
528.2
123.9
129.5
136.1
120.7
88.1
91.5
92.5
88.1
35.8
38.0
43.6
32.6
364.4
375.8
389.0
391.7
352.4
363.8
376.2
383.5
913.2
938.6
r968.8
531.5
539.7
r548.6
124.9
130.6
89.6
93.5
r96.3
35.3
37.1
r42.3
398.8
410.1
r422.7
389.5
397.9
r407.5
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
rl38.6
J J G R O S S PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
240. Total
241. Nonresidential
fixed investment
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
242. Nonresidential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
243. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
245. Change in
business inventories
244. Residential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
169.4
175.5
182.1
190.2
112.7
114.7
117.5
122.5
40.7
41.0
40.6
42.2
72.0
73.7
76.8
80.3
51.8
52.9
54.5
56.7
f5.0
+8.0
+10.2
+11.0
199.0
205.1
209.0
224.5
130.5
135.6
139.0
141.9
44.6
46.2
47.9
49.3
85.9
89.4
91.1
92.6
58.5
58.7
58.1
53.6
+10.0
+10.7
+11.8
+28.9
210.5
211.8
205.8
209.4
145.2
149.4
150.9
151.2
51.3
52.2
51.0
53.7
93.9
97.2
99.9
97.5
48.4
48.8
46.2
40.4
+16.9
+13.5
+8.7
+17.8
163.1
148*1
rl79.1
146.9
142.7
143.6
52.8
49.1
r49.6
94.2
93.6
r94.0
35.3
36.4
r41.0
-19.2
-31.0
r-5.5
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "\" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12.
70
NOVEMBER 1975
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
• M GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
wSm
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
H J F O R E I G N TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
252. Exports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
253. Imports
262. Federal
260. Total
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
264. National
defense
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
-7.1
-6.9
-4.8
-5.3
69.1
68.8
73.3
78.5
76.1
75.7
78.1
83.8
251.1
253.8
255.1
262.6
105.6
105.9
102.7
105.2
75.9
75.9
72.6
74.7
145.5
147.9
152.4
157.4
-0.8
+0.5
+6.7
+9.3
BS.S
95.4
103.7
113.6
89.5
94.9
96.9
104.3
269.0
273.3
276.9
286.4
106.4
106.2
105.3
108.4
75.0
74.0
73.3
75.3
162.6
167.1
171.6
177.9
+11.3
-1.5
-3.1
+1.9
131.2
138.5
143.6
147.5
119.9
140.0
146.7
145.7
296.3
304.4
312.3
323.8
111.5
114.3
117.2
124.5
75.8
76.6
78.4
84.0
184.8
190.1
195.1
199.3
142.2
136.0
rl42.0
133.4
119.8
331.6
338.1
r343.5
126.5
128.4
rl3O,5
84.7
84.8
r86.1
205.1
209.7
r213.0
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter .,
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
^$.^>
+16.2
r+12.2
rl29.8
Wm NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
• •
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
J J F I N A L SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
280. Compensation
of employees
Nondurable goods
Durable goods
271. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
274. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
282. Proprietors'
income
284. Rental income
of persons
275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1972
204.6
210.6
218.3
223.6
+2.7
+5.8
+6.8
+13.2
309.7
318.9
322.7
332.6
+2.2
+2.2
+3.4
-2.2
683.8
699.0
712.6
732.9
72.9
74.6
75.8
80.1
25.5
24.4
26.8
26.7
237.8
241.2
243.9
240.6
+6.1
+7.7
+9.0
+14.8
347.9
359.7
374.2
384.1
+3.9
+3.0
+2.9
+14.1
759.1
776.7
793.3
814.8
89.1
92.8
99.3
103.2
26.3
25.7
26.2
26.4
242.3
248.5
259.8
246.2
+8.7
-1.8
+5.7
+18.3
392.8
402.9
413.2
418.6
+8.2
+15.4
+3.0
-0.5
828.8
848.3
868.2
877.7
98.4
89.9
92.1
91.6
26.4
26.3
26.6
26.8
252.9
261.7
r268.7
-13.4
-14.7
r-9.2
433,2
449.8
461.3
-5.7
-16.3
r+3.7
875.6
885.4
r906.6
84.9
86.1
94.6
27.0
27.1
27.4
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 1 3 , 1 4 , 1 5 , and 16.
BCD
NOVEMBER 1975
71
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
•••NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
• H
IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
288. Net interest
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
U
290. Gross saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
292. Personal
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
294. Undistributed
corporate profits
plus inventory valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
296. Capital consumption
allowances
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
298. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
86.5
89.5
92.9
99.8
43.6
44.9
46.2
47.5
164.4
169.4
175.0
I84.6
53.3
49.0
49.3
58.9
21.3
22.1
23.3
26.5
98.9
103.7
103.3
105.8
-8.2
-5.2
-0.6
-6.5
103.9
105.0
105.2
106.4
49.2
51.1
53.2
55.5
201.1
207.9
217.0
231.7
65.3
69.6
73.2
89.3
26.3
24.9
25.6
26.2
107.4
110.5
111.5
113.9
+2.1
+3.0
+6.7
+2.3
107.7
105.6
105.8
103.4
57.5
60.1
62.8
65.9
224.5
206.3
196.4
202.9
84.4
71.5
65.5
86.5
23.9
17.1
9.9
18.1
115.8
118.6
120.7
122.9
+0.4
-1.0
+0.2
-24.6
94*3
104.9
P 122.5
68.9
71.9
75.9
166.6
165.0
pl87.7
75.9
113.8
r84.6
21.5
27.9
P36.0
125.2
127.4
130.0
-56.0
-104.2
p-62.9
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
j ^ R E A L GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
273. Final sales,
constant
(1958) dollars
246. Change in
business inventories,
constant
(1958) dollars
247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, constant
(1958) dollars
248. Fixed investment, residential
structures, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
249. Gross auto
product, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
263. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services,
constant (1958)
dollars
267. State and local
government purchases of goods and
services, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
+8.8
81.3
82.4
83.8
87.2
33.8
34.2
34.3
34.8
36.1
37.5
40.9
41.8
62.9
62.5
59.5
59.2
80.9
81.3
82.4
83.8
825.5
829.6
832.7
825.7
+7.3
+7.8
+8.0
+20.0
92.2
94.3
95.1
96.0
35.0
34.1
32.6
29.8
46.3
45.2
43.6
41.6
58.9
57.7
56.2
56.4
85.2
86.2
87.5
89.3
819.9
818.9
818.1
793.1
+10.6
+8.2
+5.0
+10.9
96.3
96.5
94.1
89.2
26.4
25.7
23.6
20.4
29.2
32.6
38.9
33.6
56.3
56.3
56.5
57.0
89.7
89.5
89.4
89.3
791.8
800.7
-11.7
-17.1
r-2.3
83.8
80.3
80.4
17.3
17.5
26.7
33.7
r39.2
57.4
58.3
r58.9
90.2
90.9
91.2
766.7
780.0
789.7
805.3
+4.2
+6.6
+8.5
1973
First quarter
Second quarter . , ,,
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
r8l0.6
rl9.4
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16,17, and 18.
72
NOVEMBER 1975
KCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Year
and
quarter
Percent of Gross National Product
241 A. Fixed
investment,
nonresidential
230A. Personal
consumption
expenditures
244A. Fixed
investment, residential structures
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
245A. Change
in business
inventories
250A. Net exports of goods
and services
(Percent)
(Percent)
262A. Federal
Govt. purchases of
goods and services
266A. State and local
govt. purchases of
goods and services
(Percent)
(Percent)
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
62.9
63.0
63.0
62.9
10.1
10.0
10.0
10.2
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
+0.4
+0.7
+0.9
+0.9
-0.6
-0.6
-0.4
-0.4
9.5
9.3
8.8
8.7
13.0
12.9
13.0
13.1
62.6
62.5
62.4
61.3
10.410.6
10.6
10.6
4.7
4.6
4.4
4.0
+0.8
+0.8
+0.9
+2.2
-0.1
0.0
+0.5
+0.7
8.5
8.3
8.0
8.1
13.0
13.1
13.1
13.2
61.9
62.8
63.6
62.6
10.6
10.8
10.7
10.6
3.6
3.5
3.3
2.8
+1.2
+1.0
+0.6
+1.2
+0.8
-0.1
-0.2
+0.1
8.2
8.3
8.3
8.7
13.6
13.7
13.8
13.9
64.5
65.1
r64.4
10.4
9.9
9.6
2.5
2.5
2.7
-1.4
-2.2
r-0.4
+0.6
+1.1
r+0.8
8.9
8.9
8.7
14.5
14.6
14.2
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter.,
Fourth quarter
• SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Con.
Percent of National Income
and
quarter
280A. Compensation
of employees
(Percent)
282A. Proprietors'
income
284A. Rental income
of persons
(Percent)
286A. Corporate profits and
inventory valuation
adjustment
(Percent)
(Percent)
288A. Net interest
(Percent)
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
75.0
75.0
74.7
74.3
8.0
8.0
7.9
8.1
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.7
73.9
73.9
73.6
73.6
8.7
8.8
9.2
9.3
74.1
75.1
75.1
75.3
76.1
75,3
P73.9
9.5
9.6
9.7
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
10.1
10.0
9.8
9.6
4.8
4.9
4.9
5.0
8.0
8.0
7.9
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
9.6
9.3
9.2
8.9
5.1
5.3
5.4
5.7
7.4
7.3
P 7.7
2.4
2,3
P 2.2
8.2
8.9
plO.O
6.0
6.1
p6.2
10.1
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 19.
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1975
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
UNEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LEADING INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Job
Vacancies
Marginal Employment Adjustments
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
(Hours)
21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production
workers, manufacturing
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
(Hours)
*5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance,
State programs1
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
(Thous.)
Comprehensive
Employment
48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspapers
(1967=100)
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
1973
40.5
Du.o
40.9
3.8
4.0
3.9
4.8
4.9
4.9
226
0)223
227
B)0.7
•0.8
126
126
127
146.60
147.73
148.41
April
May
June
40.9
40.7
40.7
0)4.0
3.9
3.8
4.7
4.7
4.8
238
234
233
0.8
0.9
0.8
125
126
127
148.74
149.13
149.57
July
August
September...
40.6
40.5
40.6
3.8
3.7
3.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
232
247
241
1.0
0.9
0.8
E)129
126
125
149.88
149.95
150.38
October
November . . .
December . . .
40.6
40.6
40.7
3.7
3.8
3.7
4.9
>4.9
244
251
284
0.9
1.0
1.1
127
126
122
150.40
151.74
151.46
January
February
March
40.5
40.4
40.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
4.5
4.4
4.4
306
323
312
1.4
1.2
1.2
117
116
117
150.88
151.32
151.07
April
May
June
39.3
40.3
40.2
2.7
3.4
3.4
4.5
4.6
4.4
293
291
306
1.1
1.1
1.1
120
119
119
149.15
151.70
151.29
July
August
September...
40.2
40.1
39.9
3.4
3.4
3.2
4.4
4.2
4.0
290
332
362
1.0
1.3
1.4
118
114
107
151.22
151.53
151.50
October
November . . .
December . . .
40.0
39.5
39.4
3.1
2.8
2.7
3.7
3.1
3.1
410
458
504
2.0
2.5
2.6
99
91
85
0)152.62
149.99
148.48
January
February
March
39.2
38.8
38.9
2.4
2.4
2.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
548
550
545
3.1
3.0
2.7
77
76
74
147.96
146.15
145.38
April
May
39.1
39.0
39.3
2.3
2.4
2.4
3.9
3.5
3.5
517
496
487
2.6
2.6
2.1
74
74
81
145.58
145.70
145.04
July
August
September...
39.4
r39.7
r39.B
P39.8
4.2
4.0
3.7
P3.6
410
U2
451
P432
1.5
1.5
1.7
pi.7
84
83
October
November . . .
December . . .
2.6
r2.8
r2.8
p2.7
145.35
rl46.8l
rl47.15
pl47.96
January
February
March
1974
4.5
0.8
1975
June
T83
p83
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by 0 ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by 0 ) . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 2 0 , 2 1 , and 39.
•'•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
74
NOVEMBER 1975
BCI»
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
• ^ E M P L O Y M E N T AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.
TIMING CLASS . . . .
*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
Comprehensive Employment-Con.
*43. Unemployment rate, total
(Percent)
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
(Percent)
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)
(Percent)
1973
o &
2.4
2.4
2.4
1.1
1.0
1.0
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.2
0.9
0.9
0.9
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.1
2.1
2.1
0.8
0.9
Oo9
0.8
0.9
January
February
March
75,516
75,915
76,159
79,182
79,863
80,256
5.0
5.0
4.9
tC,O
April
May
June
76,367
76,569
76,878
80,521
80,669
81,022
5.0
4.9
4.8
July
August
September...
76,940
77,207
77,366
81,144
81,148
81,626
4.8
4.8
4.8
October
November . . .
December . . .
77,673
77,973
78,058
82,024
82,006
82,011
January
February
March
78,068
78,196
78,236
April
May
June
2.8
2.8
E)4.6
2.6
H>2.1
4.8
4.9
H>2.6
2.2
2.2
82,051
82,050
82,126
5.2
5.2
5.1
3.1
3.2
3.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
0.9
0.9
0.9
78,351
78,^86
78,530
82,272
82,565
82,755
5.0
5.2
5.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
2.4
2.2
2.6
1.0
1.0
1.0
78,648
78,733
(H>78,830
H>82,970
82,823
82,913
5.3
5.4
5.8
3.2
3.2
1.0
1.0
3.4
2.7
2.7
2.8
78,790
78,374
77,723
82,864
82,314
81,863
6.0
6.6
7.2
3.7
4.2
4.9
3.0
3.3
3.8
January
February
March
77,319
76,804
76,468
81,179
80,701
80,584
8.2
8.2
8.7
5.5
6.0
6.4
4.5
4.7
5.2
1.7
April
76,462
76,510
76,343
80,848
80,890
81,140
8.9
9.2
8.6
6.8
6.9
6.6
5.6
5.8
5.7
2.6
2.8
3.1
August
September...
76,679
r77,023
r77,275
81,628
81,884
81,872
8.4
8.4
8.3
6.2
5.8
5.7
5.4
5.0
5.3
3.2
3.1
3.1
October
p77,492
82,019
8.6
P5.5
5.2
2.8
2.8
H>0.8
1974
July
August
September...
October
November . . .
December . . .
1.1
1975
May
June
July
1.1
1.2
1.4
2.0
2.2
November . . .
December . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by H ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by (fi>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 21, 22,41, and 43.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published "by source agency.
NOVEMBER 1975
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
£ £ | PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production
Comprehensive Income
*200. Gross national product
in current dollars
*205. Gross national product
in 1958 dollars
*47.Index of
industrial production
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(1967=100)
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
*56. Manufac53. Wages and
turing and trade
salaries in mining, manufactur- sales
ing and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
57. Final sales
(series 200
minus series
245)
(Ann. rate,
fail, dol.)
Sales of retail stores
*54. Current
dollar sales
59. Deflated
(1967 dollar)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1973
832.8
122.2
123.4
123.7
1,002.0
1,014.4
1,024.5
235.1
238.0
239.8
135,962
138,404
140,538
1,238.9
40,707
41,242
41,979
33,930
34,106
H>34,393
April
May
June
837.4
124.1
124.9
125.6
1,031.7
1,038.9
1,047.2
242.2
244.1
246.8
140,215
141,924
141,697
1,267^2
41,185
41,723
41,167
33,384
339553
32,832
July
August
September...
840.8
126.7
126.5
126.8
1,056.1
1,067.6
1,080.4
248.4
249.7
253.4
144,754
145,309
145,226
1,297!0
42,767
42,355
42,529
34,011
33,349
33,339
1,344.0
H>845.7
127.0
E>127.5
126.5
1,090.8
1,100.0
1,107.1
255.7
258.7
259.9
149,196
151,899
150,929
42,970
42,976
42,116
33,494
33,209
32,121
January
February
March
1,358*.8
830.5
125.4
124.6
124.7
1,107.0
1,113.4
1,117.1
257.4
260.0
260.7
154,323
156,595
159,735
43,079
43,295
43,938
32,523
32,246
32,453
April
May
June
1,383^8
827.1
124.9
125.7
125.8
1,125.2
1,135.2
1,143.5
262.7
265.3
267.9
160,999
163,048
163,539
44,406
44,838
44,727
32,467
32,326
31,896
July
August
September...
1,416#.3
823.1
125.5
125.2
125.6
1,159.5
1,167.2
1,178.0
268.6
271.7
273.5
168,082
171,229
170,355
1,407.6
45,905
46,920
45,858
32,395
32,771
31,528
October
November . . .
December . . .
1,430'.9
804.0
124.8
121.7
117.4
1,185.0
1,184.5
1,191.0
E>274.6
267.4
264.3
170,997
167,918
162,347
1,413.1
45,844
44,529
45,109
31,212
30,064
30,416
January
February
March
1,245.9
October
November . . .
December . . .
1974
1,341^9
• ••
1975
January
February
March
1,416.6
780.0
113.7
111.2
110.0
1,191.1
1,193.4
1,195.7
261.2
255.4
255.2
161,915
163,248
159,050
1,435^8
46,006
46,914
45,951
30,922
31,493
30,630
April
May
June
l,440'.9
783.6
109.9
110.1
111.1
1,203.1
1,214.3
1,244.1
255.7
256.7
259.1
162,374
163,038
165,504
1,471*9
46,813
48,173
48,578
31,035
31,971
31,922
112.2
114.0
rll6.0
1,238.9
1,255.9
rl,270.9
260.8
265.8
r269.5
169,124
rl72,349
(fl>pl73,277
509.1
49,655
r49,925
r49,473
32,319
r32,35O
r32,000
Pll6.5
[H)pl,283.6
p272.7
(NA)
E>p49,955
p32,253
,
July
August
,
September..
October
November . .
December . .
H>rl,5O3"-6
r808.:
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by H ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by |H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 23,24, and 42.
76
NOVEMBER 1975
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
£Q|FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
TIMING CLASS . . . .
LEADING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Formation of Business
Enterprises
*12.Index of
net business
formation
(1967=100)
New Investment Commitments
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations 1
24. Value of
manufacturers
new orders,
capital goods
industries,
nondefense
(Number)
(Bil.dol.)
(1967=100)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
9. Construction contracts
for commercial and industrial buildings, floor
space1
(Million
sq. feet)
(Million
sq. meters)2
1973
119.1
119.9
H>120.8
27,796
28,752
28,964
38.48
39.37
40.86
185
191
193
11.33
11.36
11.69
9.72
9.57
9.45
10.04
87.48
85.89
84.71
8.13
7.98
7.87
April
May
June
119.3
118.8
118.5
28,522
28,286
27,999
40.81
a.71
11.30
11.94
12.76
10.92
42.29
177
173
183
9.94
10.04
10.56
83.61
83.73
85.79
7.77
7.78
7.97
July
August
September...
118.2
117.2
115.6
27,664
26,689
26,240
41.01
41.71
40.70
175
199
182
12.62
12.65
12.26
11.67
10.57
10.28
10.39
0)95.42
89.80
83.77
[H>8.86
8.34
7.78
October
November . . .
December . . .
116.2
117.6
1H.0
26,809
26,718
24,881
42.71
43.04
41.24
191
194
161
13.29
13.40
12.73
12.20
10.93
11.16
10.94
91.60
87.47
69.51
8.51
8.13
6.46
January
February
March
113.3
113.0
113.9
26,511
27>056
26,458
41.63
42.60
42.40
155
187
181
12.66
13.17
13.01
12.86
11.00
11.42
11.30
76.53
80.67
75.07
7.11
7.49
6.97
April
May
June
115.9
116.3
115.7
D29,071
27,562
25,785
44.32
46.96
47.20
167
188
166
13.67
14.57
13.84
14.98
11.92
11.80
12.01
82.77
77.98
75.83
7.69
7.24
7.04
July
August
September...
118.6
114.6
111.1
27,790
26,495
26,313
47.42
E>49.18
ED15.16
46.21
177
170
187
B>16.38
0)12.80
11.80
11.83
76.64
82.17
73.70
7.12
7.63
6.85
October
November . . .
December . . .
105.2
105.1
106.3
25,404
25,555
25,003
44.39
42.70
38.09
148
154
176
12.87
12.34
13.64
12.68
11.38
10.62
10.46
62.47
56.71
54.25
5.80
5.27
5.04
January
February
March
102.9
101.7
103.0
24,406
24,298
24,922
36.17
37.36
35.97
135
135
153
11.39
11.34
11.44
11.46
10.08
9.97
9.52
54.39
46.54
39.69
5.05
4.32
3.69
April
May
June
103.4
104.8
110.7
26,506
26,634
26,843
38.98
39.43
39.73
189
182
174
13.01
12.99
12.34
rll.O8
10.31
10.30
10.14
56.90
44.79
50.54
5.29
4.16
4.70
July
August
September...
113.2
rll2.6
rell3.5
28,143
28,708
(NA)
42.69
r42.23
165
E>208
157
12.65
13.98
rll.93
pl0.82
10.73
10.39
rl0.21
52.60
43.25
50.12
4.89
4.02
4.66
October
November . . .
December . . .
ell2.0
P42.78
166
pl2.21
plO.75
54.10
5.03
January
February
March
1974
13.52
14.08
1975
41.68
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by E ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by (H>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated: " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 25, 26, and 39.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division (series 8 and 9) or The Conference Board (series 11).
Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
NOVEMBER 1975
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
•••INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
l i l
INVESTMENT
U N F I X E D CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
LEADING INDICATORS
New Investment
Commitments-Con.
Backlog of Investment
Commitments
Investment Expenditures
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
28. New private
housing units
started, total 1
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
*29.Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits1
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(1967=100)
(Bil.dol.)
)7. Backlog of
rapital approbations, manuacturing2
(Bil.dol.)
'61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business construc:ion expend i:ures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
245. Change
in business
inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*31. Change in
book value of
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total
37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
nventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Percent
reporting)
1973
January
February
March
2,486
2,376
2,309
195.7
191.8
177.7
82.27
83.91
86.80
April
May
June
2,096
2,313
2,087
164.4
166.4
176.7
92.74
July
August
September...
2,120
2,058
1,861
156.8
155.9
146.8
98.46
101.54
103.45
October
November . . .
December . . .
1,692
1,721
1,441
121.6
120.8
111.0
105.87
108.30
109.86
1,437
1,881
1,511
112.5
113.9
120.2
111.38
113.58
114.93
1,580
1,467
1,533
108.9
99.9
117.82
122.02
126.08
July
August
September..
1,3H
1,156
1,157
89.6
80.0
73.5
October
November . .
December . .
1,106
1,017
880
69.9
66.4
72.1
129.67
134.30
E>135.70
134.22
132.66
129.94
January
February . . .
March
999
1,000
985
59.4
60.4
58.3
125.87
123.25
120.10
April
May
June
980
1,130
1,094
72.1
78.6
81.8
July
August
September..
1,235
rl,269
rl,268
89.8
85.7
r94.4
118.23
117.48
116.75
117.21
117.41
rll6.36
October....
November . .
December . .
pl,458
P94.1
P115.O8
96.19
126.80
126.51
128.52
+10.0
+23.0
+25.2
+22.0
61
63
61
97.76
131.73
132.41
135.14
+10.7
+17.3
+28.3
+30.3
57
58
63
100.90
137.47
135.53
137.26
+11.8
+23.7
+26.5
+17.6
64
61
64
103.74
139.91
142.39
142.81
E>+28.9
+21.4
+34.5
+50.7
B)70
64
65
107.27
144.58
147.63
149.04
+16.9
+35.2
+36.8
+35.8
63
59
57
111.40
149.90
151.29
156.22
+13.5
+24.8
+47.7
+53.0
59
58
56
113.99
151.32
151.94
155.49
+8.7
+57.3
+53.1
+61.5
54
57
58
[H>116.22
[H>16O.52
159.38
156.39
+17.8
|H>+67.4
+39.4
+47.7
49
47
41
114.57
153.54
155.41
150.14
-19.2
+1.2
-10.8
-21.6
37
30
30
112.46
151.74
148.75
150.24
-31.0
-17.7
-31.6
-7.0
26
31
29
148.67
rl49.95
pl49.00
-4.8
all3.48
r-5.5
r+15.8
P+5.6
25
28
26.03
89.60
96.a
29.62
33.36
37.11
1974
January
February
March
April
May
June
,
39.84
44.2
E>50.01
49.79
1975
49.08
r47.64
P45.74
(NA)
37
(NA)
42
all3.70
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by (H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26,27,28,40, and 43.
Series reaching high values before 1973 are as follows:
Series 28, January 1972 (2,494); Series 29, December 1972 (208.5).
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board.
78
NOVEMBER 1975
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing-Con.
Inventories
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
[ ^ • P R I C E S , COSTS, AND PROFITS
H B l N V E N T O R I E S A N D INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Con.
20. Change in
book value,
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.
and supplies
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
25. Change in
32. Vendor
performance, unfilled
companies re- orders, durporting slower able goods
industries
deliveries ®
26. Prod, materials, companies reporting commitments 60 days
or longer®
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil.dol.)
Sensitive ComStock Prices
modity Prices
* 7 1 . Manufac- 65. Mfrs.'
inventories of
turing and
trade invento- finished
goods, book
ries, book
value
value
(Bil.dol.)
LEADING INDICATORS
(Bil.dol.)
*23.Index of
industrial
materials
prices©
*19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks®
(1967=100)
1941-43=10)
Profits and Profit Margins
Corporate profits after
taxes
16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
18. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1973
78
84
+1.36
+1.64
+2.89
199.61
201.71
203.55
35.72
35.87
36.19
139.3
147.5
155.3
E>118.42
114.16
112.42
71.5
50.5
90
+2.80
+3.14
+3.67
204.98
207.34
209.87
36.08
36.45
36.84
158.2
162.9
170.1
110.27
107.22
104.75
74.0
51.4
+2.05
+3.09
+1.90
211.84
214.05
215.51
36.85
36.74
37.04
178.1
189.8
186.3
105.83
103.80
105.61
72.9
49.8
90
91
+2.42
+2.42
+1.56
217.30
220.17
224.40
37.12
37.33
37.95
188.1
192.4
208.9
109.84
102.03
94.78
73.2
49.1
H>91
85
88
+1.52
+2.20
+1.34
227.34
230.40
233.39
38.46
38.89
39.11
215.9
232.0
237.2
96.11
93.45
97.44
83.2
54.5
83
84
84
84
79
76
+2.89
+4.20
+4.07
235.46
239.43
243.85
39.35
39.76
40.39
E>238.4
226.2
227.5
92.46
89.67
89.79
83.1
52.9
,
+12.6
+16.0
+13.5
July
August
September..,
[H>+19.7
+17.9
+15.5
83
85
S3
72
68
52
+3.58
B>+4.64
248.63
253.05
258.18
41.34
42.09
43.41
228.2
224.2
214.7
82.82
76.03
68.12
E>94.3
E>58.2
October
November . . ,
December . . .
+9.5
+4.8
+19.2
82
73
69
46
32
22
-1.47
-1.57
-2.71
263.79
267.08
271.05
44.27
45.58
46.73
204.4
196.4
183.4
69.44
71.74
67.07
79.5
46.9
+8.4
+2.1
-6.1
64
64
18
16
17
-4.07
-2.63
-3.15
H> 271.15
270.25
268.45
47.60
47.70
0)47.73
180.1
181.1
182.3
72.56
80.10
83.78
62.3
35.9
April
May
June
-12.2
-10.5
-8.2
57
54
56
22
24
26
-1.87
-0.76
-0.72
266.97
264.34
263.75
47.29
47.01
46.83
I86.4
184.2
173.2
84.72
90.10
92.40
70.3
40.0
July
August
September...
-7.4
r-6.5
-2.2
53
58
30
36
44
+0.45
+0.20
r-1.05
263.34
r264.66
p265.13
46.41
r46.60
47.02
171.5
179.6
184.2
92.49
85.71
84.67
p82.2
P46.3
October
November . . .
December . . .
(NA)
62
45
p-1.28
(NA)
(NA)
181.9
U79.3
January
February
March
+4.1
+5.3
+3.2
63
68
67
April
May
June
+4.2
+5.3
+6.9
77
80
78
July
August
September...
+7.6
+6.3
+7.0
83
90
October
November . . .
December . . .
+7.9
+5.7
+13.1
87
84
87
+12.2
+11.8
+13.8
90
B>92
1974
January
February
March
April
May
June
,
+1.39
1975
January
February
March
3
88.57
90.11
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by IB); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by |R). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28, 29,30,40,41, and 43.
1
Average for November 4, 11, and 18.
IICII
NOVEMBER 1975
2
Average for November .5, 12, and 19.
79
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
j ^ P R I C E S . COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
Profits and Profit Margins-Con.
22. Ratio,
profits to
income
orig. in
corporate
business
15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all
mfg. corp.
*17. Ratio,
price to unit
labor cost
index, mfg.
(Percent)
(Cents)
(1967=100)
Cash Flows
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Unit Labor Costs
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, mfd.
goods@
63.Index
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
120.0
121.3
122.8
121.6
123.6
125.7
127.6
124.2
125.3
126.0
126.4
128.3
130.1
129.8
...
6.9
...
.. •
34. Current
dollars
55. Index of
wholesale
prices,
35. Constant industrial
(1958) dol. commod.®
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.L
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Net cash flows, corporate
Unit labor cost, total
private economy
63c. Change
over 1-Q
spans
(Ann. rate,
percent)
68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per
unit of gross
prod. (1958
dol.), corp.
(Dollars)
*62.Index
of labor
cost per
unit of output, mfg.
(1967=100)
1973
January
February . . . .
March
11.4
4.7
103.0
104.1
105.3
April
May
June
11.6
4.7
104.7
105.6
106.4
July
August
September
11.1
4-7
10.8
October
November
December
7.4
0.858
112.0
79.1
115.7
...
80.5
...
106.0
109.3
106.9
114.8
78.5
126.1
126.7
127.4
129.1
133.4
131.8
132.1
7.4
...
5.7
106.3
107.5
108.6
115.5
78.1
128.5
130.1
132.2
132.0
132.8
135.1
134.7
8.0
...
11.6
5.8
110.7
111.2
112.2
125.7
83-4
135.3
138.2
142.4
138.6
140.9
143.6
139.9
12.1
5.6
112.8
113.9
114.0
126.3
81.5
146.6
150.5
153.6
146.0
149.3
151.5
144.1
M/13-5
E)5.9
116.7
119.5
120.0
0)138.6
B)86.4
157.8
161.6
162.9
156.4
161.8
162.4
148.5
120.9
0)121.5
119.9
125.5
74.0
I64.8
165.8
166.1
165.2
166.2
166.9
153.6
117.5
116.2
113.7
109.6
...
62.5
167.5
I68.4
168.9
168.2
168.0
167.8
.. .
0.870
...
118.4
118.4
119.0
120.2
120.7
121.2
121.6
0.884
...
122.4
123.3
0.905
...
124.7
124.8
125.4
1974
January
February
March
April
May
June
.. . .
July
August
September
October
November
December . . . .
0.937
125.6
126.5
127.4
0.964
129.0
130.2
131.8
D16.4
12.6
...
12.8
...
0.993
...
1.023
136.8
138.1
140.5
(H)l-043
144.0
144.5
147.3
1.034
147.8
148.6
148.4
pi.022
rl49.1
rl48.9
rl49.0
14.4
11.1
4.9
9.3
3.8
...
10.2
4.4
113.9
113.4
113.6
119.3
67.1
169.7
170.3
170.7
168.7
169.5
170.1
D158.8
(NA)
rll4.9
115.0
116.2
pl32*.9
p74*3
171.2
172.2
173.1
171.4
172.3
173.0
rl57.1
Dm- 7
H>174.5
134.0
134.6
135.5
1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November . .
December
pll6.7
10.7
157.5
...
3.2
r-4.1
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by H ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by|H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30, 31,32,41, and 43.
^•Data beginning with the 4th quarter-1973 are not comparable with earlier data due to changes in the definition of profits
and in the rules for consolidation. The figure for the 4th quarter 1973 on the old basis is 4.8.
80
NOVEMBER 1975
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q | MONEY AND CREDIT
TIMING CLASS . . . .
LEADING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Credit Difficulties
Flows of Money and Credit
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply (M1)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
102. Change in
money supply
plus time
deposits at
commercial
banks (M2)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
103. Change in
money supply
plus time deposits at banks
and nonbank institutions (M3)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
33. Net change
in mortgage debi
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies1 2
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
112. Net
change in
bank loans to
businesses3
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*113. Net
change in consumer installment debt
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
110. Total
private
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil, dot.)
14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures @ 1
(Mil.dol.)
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over,
consumer
installment
loans1
(Percent)
1973
+5.16
+4.67
+9.36
+7.02
+5.40
+10.65
+8.45
+6.99
+47.92
+49.33
+53.46
+23.70
+50.95
+41.00
+23.39
+23.96
H>+24.53
185,696
205.84
137.16
252.35
+6.51
+13.42
+13.72
+7.85
+12.03
+11.69
+8.20
+11.18
+11.76
+52.75
+53.51
+57.43
+26.14
+14.32
+13.07
+16.85
+23.89
+19.34
178,460
119.34
167.95
180.21
July
August
September...
+3.62
-0.45
-1.35
+5.24
+6.96
+4.54
+5.96
+5.26
+4.43
+53.60
+52.30
+43.74
+22.94
+29.40
+6.02
+23.98
+22.74
+16.31
184,496
206.19
190.15
189.47
October
November . . .
December . . .
+4.06
+12.60
+9.35
•+9.48
+11.97
+10.58
+8.42
+10.49
+10.27
+40.69
+39.76
+31.66
+3.13
+4.31
+17.00
*-20.40
+20.71
+4.92
161,928
185.66
218.67
245.62
-2.65
+9.75
+9.23
+6.92
+11.26
+9.50
+7.18
+9.47
+9.52
+36.94
+39.92
+41.93
+19.79
+1.04
+30.01
+11.00
+8.05
+7.40
157,208
337.28
213.13
204.59
2.54
+6.10
+4.34
+10.37
+7.99
+4.48
+11.16
+7.53
+3.68
+9.11
+48.34
+47.36
+39.54
E>+52.21
+20.42
+14.92
+13.84
+15.14
+13.03
) 207,196
209.76
375.69
215.50
2.56
July
August
September...
+1.71
+0.43
+0.86
+5.02
+4.60
+2.99
+4.77
+3.75
+2.99
+39.83
+31.58
+30.66
+44-54
+14.17
+21.02
+15.90
+18.14
+8.12
164,008
153.40
232.68
217.01
2.63
October
November . . .
December . . .
+3.85
+8.52
+3.38
+8.35
+7.90
+3.73
+7.09
+7.66
+5.90
+29.34
+24.11
+16.52
+9.90
+21.42
+14.22
+4.82
-4.80
-9.77
142,872
306.83
344.66
242.59
2.80
-11.81
+3.41
+11.05
+2.54
+8.39
+11.63
+5.62
+9.86
+13.88
+25.07
+30.26
+28.99
-11.59
-39.71
-17.42
-4.81
+2.84
-5.24
r95,040
391.14
384.76
343.35
2.59
2.71
2.94
+3.37
+11.34
B> +18.72
+7.29
+13.36
H>+19.25
+11.69
+14.89
E> +19.84
+36.54
+39.47
+35.38
-22.73
-22.70
-18.34
-2.90
-1.50
+5.06
rlO7,432
372.08
357.79
175.92
2.74
2.65
2.63
+2.05
+2.86
r+2.04
+8.17
+5.90
+4.77
+12.17
+9-43
r+7.78
+40.72
+38.22
PU7.96
-7.32
-18.72
r+2.59
pl20,084
242.03
222.44
205.53
2.60
2.65
2.59
P+-4.02
+14.27
p+7.28
(NA)
p+5.87
*+7.96
+10.43
+6.00
+12.68
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
January
February
March
April
May
June
2.01
2.01
2.11
2.27
1974
January
February
March
April
May
June
...
2.61
2.65
1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September...
October
November . . .
December . . .
4
p+2.85
+14.31
4
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by E ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by 0 ) . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 33,34, and 4 1 .
•"•Series reaching high values before 1973 are as follows: Series 33, December 1972 (+57.89); Series 14, December 1972 (86.79);
Series 39, December 1971 (1.71). 2 Data include conventional mortgages held by GNMA. 3Data beginning October 1974 are not strictly
comparable with earlier data. See October 1974 BCD, page iii. 4Average for weeks ended November 5 and 12.
ItCI)
NOVEMBER 1975
81
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
I l l MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Bank
Reserves
93. Free
reserves ©
Year
and
month
(Mil, dol.)
LAGGING INDICATORS
Interest Rates
119. Federal funds
rate®
114. Treasury bill
rate©
(Percent)
(Percent)
Interest Rates
Outstanding Debt
116. Cor
115. Treas- 117. Municporate bond ury bond ipal bond
yields®
yields® yields®
66. Consumer
installment
debt
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil, dol.)
5.96
*72. Commercial
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly reporting large
commercial
banks1
(Mil, dol.)
109. Average prime
rate charged
by banks®
*67. Bank
rates on
short-term
business
loans, 35
cities ®
118. Mortgage yields,
residential®
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
6.00
6.02
6.30
6.f>2
7.55
7.56
7.63
1973
January
February
March
-823
-1,388
-1,563
5.94
6.58
7.09
5.31
5.56
6.05
7.61
7.67
7.75
6.14
6.20
5.05
5.13
5.29
126,388
128,385
130,429
April
May
June
-1,564
-1,633
-1,653
7.12
7.84
8.49
6.29
6.35
7.19
7.70
7.69
7.73
6.11
6.25
6.32
5.15
5.14
5.18
131,833
133,824
135,436
103,726
104,919
106,008
6.60
7.01
7.49
7.35
7.73
7.79
7.89
July
August
September...
-1,584
-1,734
-1,477
10.40
10.50
10.78
8.02
8.67
8.48
7.97
8.45
8.10
6.53
6.85
6.41
5.40
5.48
5.10
137,434
139,329
140,688
107,920
110,370
110,872
8.30
9.23
9.86
9.24
8.19
(NA)
9.18
October
November . . .
December . . .
-1,141
-1,111
10.01
10.03
7.97
7.95
8.09
6.25
6.30
6.35
5.05
5.18
5.12
142,388
144,114
ihU, 524
111,133
111,492
112,909
9.94
9.75
9.75
10.08
8.97
8.86
8.78
93,885
98,131
101,548
-995
9.95
7.16
7.87
7.36
-790
-980
7.76
7.06
7.99
8.32
8.21
8.60
6.56
6.54
6.81
5.22
5.20
5.40
145,441
146,112
146,729
114,558
114,645
117,146
9.73
9.21
8.83
9.91
-1,444
9.65
8.97
9.35
8.54
8.66
-1,506
-2,282
-2,739
10.51
11.31
11.93
8.23
8.43
8.14
9.04
9.39
9.59
7.04
7.09
7.02
5.73
6.02
6.13
147,882
149,144
150,230
121,497
123,199
124,442
10.02
11.25
11.54
11.15
9.17
9.46
9.46
July
August
September..
-2,982 H>12.92
-3,008
12.01
-2,957
11.34
7.75
H>8.74
8.36
10.18
10.30
7.18
[H>7.33
7.30
6.68
6.71
6.76
151,555
153,067
153,744
128,154
129,335
130,988
11.98
12.00
H)l2.00
[H>12.40
10.30
October
November ..
December ..
-1,585
-960
-332
10.06
9.45
8.35
7.24
7.58
7.18
10.29
9.22
9.47
7.22
6.93
6.77
6.57
6.61
7.05
154,146
153,746
152,932
131,813
133,598
[fi> 134,783
11.68
10.83
10.50
-441
7.13
6.24
5.54
6.49
5.58
5.54
9.17
8.84
9.48
6.68
6.66
6.77
6.82
6.39
6.74
152,531
152,768
152,331
133,817
130,508
129,056
10.05
8.96
7.93
9.94
8.84
8.69
5.69
5.32
5.19
9.81
9.76
9.27
7.05
7.01
6.86
6.95
6.97
6.95
152,089
151,964
152,386
127,162
125,270
123,742
7.50
7.41
7.08
8.16
(NA)
9.16
9.06
6.16
6.46
6.38
9.56
9.70
9.89
6.89
7.11
7.28
7.07
7.17
153,-255
153,755
|H>154,812
123,132
121,572
rl21,788
7.14
7.65
7.89
8.22
9.13
9.32
9.74
6.08
5.45
9.54
39.29
(NA)
pl22,277
4
122,940
1974
January
February
March
April
May
June
,
,
(NA)
9.85
E>10.38
10.13
(NA)
11.64
9.51
1975
January
February . . .
March
•+95
+167
April
May
June
+288
5.49
5.22
5.55
July
August
September..
-276
+44
r-136
6.10
6.14
6.24
October
November ..
December ..
a
+17
-52
P+42
+322
8
5.82
5.22
3
3
7.29
7.19
(H>7.44
3
7.39
7.45
5
7.96
7.54
9.53
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by [ED; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by (H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these secies are shown on Daaes 35.36. and 43.
*Data beginning with September 1974 are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See October 1974 BCD, page iii. 2Average
for weeks ended November 5, 12, and 19. 3Average for weeks ended November 7, 14, and 21. 4Average for weeks ended November 5 and
12. 5Average for November 1 through 25.
82
NOVEMBER 1975
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
COMPOSITE INDEXES
Year
and
month
New index of
12 leading
indicators,
original
trend
(1967=100)
New index of
12 leading
indicators,
reverse
trend
adjusted1
New index of
4 coincident
indicators
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
New index of
6 lagging
indicators
(1967=100)
Leading Indicator Subgroups
813. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1,2,
3,5)
814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6,10,
12,29)
815. Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 23,
25,31,37)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
816. Profitability
(series 16,
17,19)
817. Sensitive
financial flows
(series 33,85,
112,113)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
8
Revised
1973
January
February
March
121.2
121.6
122.2
114.8
116.6
118.8
115.6
116.3
118.5
124.2
125.9
E>128.6
120.8
120.9
E>122.4
118.6
121.3
123.9
118.1
119.0
118.8
120.4
123.7
121.9
101.7
102.2
102.8
121.1
120.5
118.9
123.6
126.9
125.3
118.6
120.8
119.2
122.5
117.4
108.7
170.3
171.7
175.8
102.6
100.8
97.7
118.9
119.2
116.1
127.1
129.1
132.9
119.6
119.0
119.5
108.2
110.6
104.7
173.7
172.6
172.2
177.7
177.6
178.7
95.3
95.2
94.8
115.7
116.6
117.3
132.1
135.2
134.6
122.8
123.7
125.6
106.9
109.6
115.8
163.4
163.0
160.0
171.8
172.5
171.6
184.0
189.4
192.3
95.6
95.6
96.1
118.3
118.4
117.4
135.3
137.3
138.0
124.8
125.0
126.4
123.1
121.0
116.1
112.9
108.8
104.3
159.1
153.5
147.7
172.4
171.9
171.0
195.5
196.7
198.3
95.8
94.3
92.3
118.8
115.9
113.3
137.8
0)138.0
134.4
128.0
D129.4
125.4
115.8
113.7
105.5
100.2
97.1
95.0
142.5
138.7
136.3
169.0
162.8
156.4
199.5
198.9
[H)199.5
89.0
85.7
83.9
109.5
108.3
108.8
129.2
124.1
120.7
124.9
124.4
119.4
106.2
101.1
92.8
January
February
March
r91.6
r91.0
r91.8
131.9
131.5
133.3
152.5
149.7
147.0
198.9
192.4
190.3
82.5
81.9
82.5
104.1
104.1
103.9
113.3
112.2
110.9
117.1
115.9
116.1
89.1
90.5
88.7
April
May
June
r94.6
r96.6
r99.7
138.0
141.5
146.6
147.6
148.8
149.5
185.5
181.7
174.9
83.9
84.0
85.7
107.6
109.0
111.3
112.1
112.4
112.5
117.7
119.8
rl22.1
94.0
96.2
99.1
July
August
September...
102.0
rlO2.6
102.5
150.5
152.1
152.5
151.4
154.6
156.9
175.6
174.8
174.0
r88.8
r89.3
P 88.6
113.8
rll4.2
112.4
116.6
r-117.1
1-124.8
rl24.5
1-125.5
October
November . . .
December . . .
3
158.8
pl76.2
(NA)
pll3.8
P 117.4
pl27.8
101.3
r98.8
plO5.1
(NA)
125.0
125.7
124.5
164.5
166.0
164.8
163.4
166.5
168.0
140.8
144.4
147.5
124.1
124.9
B>126.6
164.3
166.3
B>169.7
168.2
169.6
170.3
151.3
154.2
158.1
July
August
September..,
126.5
123.9
122.3
168.8
166.1
165.3
173.0
172.7
174-4
162.
166.
169.3
October
November . . .
December . . .
122.4
121.7
119.8
165.8
166.6
164.8
176.4
H)178.2
175.6
January
February
March
117.5
117.7
119.6
162.5
163.2
166.0
April
May
June
117.4
116.5
113.7
July
August
September...
October
November . . ,
December . . ,
April
May
June
102.2
102.5
103.2
0>1O3.
103.
102.
1974
1975
102.0
3
152.4
4
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by G ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by E > . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 37 and 38.
1
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the new index of 4 coincident indicators.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
Excludes series X170D for which data are not yet available.
4
Excludes series 56D for which data are not yet available.
3
3
The old index of 12 leading indicators is shown in appendix G.
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1975
83
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Q |
Year
and
quarter
AGGREGATE SERIES
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, all industries
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
b. Second
anticipations as
percent of actual
c. First
anticipations as
percent of actual
(Percent)
(Percent)
414. Condition
of manufacturers'
inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low
412. Manufacturers' inventories,
total book value
410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value
(Percent)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
86.79
87.12
87.67
91.94
100.9
104.1
103.1
100.5
100.4
102.3
102.3
99.9
177.6
182.7
187.0
196.9
103.0
104.3
106.2
107.7
12
10
11
10
96.19
97.76
100.90
103.74
100.6
100.8
101.0
101.2
100.5
102.4
100.9
100.6
206.2
211.4
215.1
224.6
110.2
113.0
116.1
120.9
9
11
12
13
107.27
111.40
113.99
116.22
99.9
99.3
99.1
98.4
100.8
98.7
99.3
99.8
232.4
242.1
255.0
252.8
126.5
133.5
143.0
150.4
18
22
23
31
114-57
112.46
all3.48
all3.70
98.8
100.8
(NA)
103.0
101.2
(NA)
236.0
240.5
a26l.O
a271.2
151.2
148.1
al46.2
al44.3
30
24
(NA)
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
H |
Year
and
quarter
B 9
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
416. Adequacy
of mfrs.' capacity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive
(Percent)
D61. Business expenditures for new
plant and equipment, all industries
435. Index of
consumer
sentiment ®
b. Second
anticipations
a. Actual
expenditures
(First quarter
1966=100)
DIFFUSION INDEXES
(1-Qspan)
D440. New orders,
manufacturing1 (u)
c. First
anticipations
(1-Qspan)
Anticipated
Actual
(1-Qspan)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
24
26
31
35
87.5
89.3
94.0
90.8
44.4
50.0
55.6
83.3
77.8
63.9
88.9
75.0
75.0
44.4
47.2
50.0
82
84
86
84
82
86
88
88
a
45
48
51
80.8
76.0
71.8
75.7
83.3
61.1
83.3
66.7
77.8
77.8
72.2
75.0
86.1
63.9
61.1
72.2
88
90
88
86
88
90
88
87
51
49
45
32
60.9
72.0
64.5
58.4
77.8
86.1
61.1
63.9
72.2
77.8
61.1
55.6
75.0
86.1
69.4
61.1
84
82
74
59
86
80
85
80
22
21
(NA)
58.0
72.9
38.9
44.4
(NA)
36.1
41.7
50.0
66.7
52.8
66.7
61.1
50
54
(NA)
72
59
70
73
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
75.8
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44,45, and 46.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc.
84
NOVEMBER 1975
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Q [
Year
and
quarter
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade1 ®
Anticipated
Actual
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
D446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade1 ®
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade1 @
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
Anticipated
D450. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade1 ®
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
74
76
79
80
76
82
84
83
82
82
85
86
83
88
90
88
56
58
62
60
58
60
61
60
64
66
72
71
61
66
66
66
78
79
76
76
82
85
84
80
86
89
86
85
88
90
90
88
63
62
60
60
60
63
62
60
73
76
75
76
69
72
72
70
74
76
71
63
80
74
79
77
82
84
80
70
86
78
86
82
58
59
56
49
61
56
60
58
78
79
78
69
70
67
72
72
52
53
(NA)
68
58
66
67
57
58
(NA)
75
62
73
71
44
44
(NA)
53
48
54
54
58
52
(NA)
64
54
50
54
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
0 1
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Selling prices
Year
and
quarter
D460. Manufacturing
and trade1 ®
Actual
D462. Manufacturing1 ®
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
Actual
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
D464. Wholesale trade1 ©
Actual
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
D466. Retail trade1 ®
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
74
76
76
78
68
74
75
72
70
72
72
74
68
72
72
70
80
81
82
80
70
78
80
74
73
78
79
81
67
74
74
74
86
86
90
92
76
82
85
83
82
84
86
90
73
80
83
82
90
89
92
96
80
86
88
84
90
87
93
93
76
85
88
83
94
96
94
90
87
90
92
91
92
96
94
89
86
89
92
90
96
96
94
91
88
94
92
91
92
97
96
92
87
89
92
93
80
80
(NA)
87
76
69
76
81
78
(NA)
86
76
68
74
80
79
(NA)
87
74
70
76
80
84
(NA)
88
75
72
79
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47
1
T M s is a copyrignted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from "Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc.
NOVEMBER 1975
85
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FOREIGN TRADE
Year
and
month
500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)
(Mil. dof.)
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
(Mil.dol.)
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles
and parts
(Mil.dol.)
508. Index of export orders,
nonelectrical machinery
(1967=100)
512. General imports, total
(Mil.dol.)
1973
January
February
March
-289
-413
-102
4,955
5,070
5,311
2,304
2,248
2,307
164
172
184
5,244
5,483
5,414
April
May
June
+133
-142
-47
5,494
5,561
5,728
2,111
2,258
2,109
193
184
207
5,360
5,703
5,775
July
August
September...
+37
+32
+776
5,865
6,04-2
6,420
2,228
2,853
2,104
189
192
194
5,829
6,010
5,644
October
November . . .
December . . .
+589
+194
+658
6,585
6,879
6,949
2,633
2,291
2,665
195
205
191
5,996
6,684
6,291
January
February
March
+652
+231
-116
7,150
7,549
7,625
2,828
2,872
3,115
213
216
205
7,318
7,742
April
May
June
+82
-612
-260
8,108
7,652
8,317
3,375
3,520
2,960
219
206
210
8,025
8,264
8,577
July
August
September..
-615
-888
-297
8,307
8,379
8,399
2,900
3,204
3,327
211
219
215
8,922
9,267
8,696
October
November . .
December . .
-100
0
-395
8,673
8,973
8,862
3,565
3,264
3,305
207
190
178
8,773
8,973
9,257
January
February . . .
March
-210
+917
+1,380
9,412
8,789
8,716
3,295
3,166
3,647
187
172
178
9,622
7,872
7,336
April
May
June
+557
+1,052
+1,737
8,570
8,145
8,692
3,193
3,446
3,531
194
191
197
8,013
7,093
6,954
July
August
September..
+977
+1,035
+976
8,885
8,996
9,165
3,338
P3,288
214
r225
p210
7,908
7,961
8,189
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1974
,
1975
October
November . .
December . .
3,479
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
86
NOVEMBER 1975
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter
250. Balance
on goods and
services
(Mil. dol.)
515. Balance
on goods, services,
and remittances
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
530. Liquid
liabilities to all
foreigners1 2 ®
522. Official
reserve transactions balance
521. Net
liquidity balance
519. Balance on
current account
and long-term
capital
517. Balance
on current
account
1972
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
-1,786
-1,657
-1,245
-1,243
-2,187
-2,050
-1,625
-1,674
-2,773
-2,608
-2,198
-2,131
-3,953
-2,338
-2,966
-1,855
-3,460
-2,287
-4,570
-3,511
-3,563
-624
-4,681
-1,485
66,925
69,880
75,498
78,679
-361
166
1,553
2,820
-755
-228
1,147
-1,116
-849
653
1,647
-1,393
-1,085
1,917
-419
-6,811
-1,719
1,826
-950
-10,629
551
2,318
2,449
85,361
86,279
86,576
87,572
2,992
78
-235
989
2,622
-379
-692
550
26
-1,787
-1,500
1,701
-2,302
-3,574
-6,513
-1,200
-6,218
-3,910
-7,717
551
-4,198
118
-4,847
91,154
98,865
105,439
112,885
3,178
P5,259
(NA)
2,230
p4,784
(NA)
-673
pi, 611
(NA)
3,108
rpl,104
e289
-3,267
-1,616
p4,923
116,983
rllg,197
(NA)
1973
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter i .
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter .,
Second quarter
Third quarter.,
Fourth quarter
-99
1975
First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
2,003
P4,06l
(NA)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
532. Liquid
and certain
nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies1©
(Mil. dol.)
534. U.S.
official
reserve
assets3©
Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
Goods and services
252. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
253. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
Merchandise, adjusted
536. Exports
537. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Income on investment, military
transactions, other services
540. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
541. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
1972
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
53,806
54,604
60,075
61,526
12,270
13,339
13,217
13,151
17,247
17,275
18,349
19,729
19,033
18,932
19,594
20,972
11,798
11,699
12,496
13,395
13,489
13,296
14,027
14,985
5,449
5,576
5,853
6,334
5,544
5,636
5,567
5,987
71,336
70,701
69,777
66,827
12,931
12,914
12,927
14,378
22,329
24,144
26,282
29,298
22,690
23,978
24,729
26,478
15,423
16,958
18,451
20,547
16,334
17,189
17,737
19,164
6,906
7,186
7,831
8,751
6,356
6,789
6,992
7,314
65,631
70,043
72,730
76,658
14,588
14,946
15,893
15,883
33,337
35,510
37,187
38,413
30,345
35,432
37,422
37,424
22,464
24,218
25,034
26,593
22,587
25,677
27,349
27,973
10,873
11,292
12,153
11,820
7,758
9,755
10,073
9,451
79,210
16,256
16,242
16,291
37,097
p35,4l8
(NA)
33,919
P3O,159
(NA)
27,188
p25,694
P26,899
25,358
p22,349
P24,6l8
9,909
P9,724
8,561
p7,8lO
(NA)
1973
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
D80,468
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown onpages 49. 50. and 51. i ^ ^ t outstanding at end of quarter. 2 See (2) on page BS. ^Reserve p o s i t i o n
of quarter. 4Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts
(exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1975
at
87
end
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Income on Investments, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)
544. Receipts
from foreign travelers in the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)
543. Foreign
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)
542. U.S. investments abroad
(Mil.dol.)
Transportation and other services
Military transactions
Travel
Income on investments
545. Payments
by U.S. travelers
abroad
(Mil.dol.)
549. Payments
548. Receipts
from
547. Military
expenditures
abroad ®
(Mil.dol.)
546. Sales under
military contracts
(Mil.dol.)
for
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1972
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
2,274
2,387
2,595
2,905
1,364
1,403
1,462
1,612
673
695
713
736
1,232
1,231
1,250
1,329
332
281
255
295
1,222
1,272
1,105
1,185
2,170
2,213
2,290
2,398
1,726
1,730
1,750
1,861
3,123
3,3043,576
3,995
1,799
2,096
2,413
2,511
836
817
860
899
1,338
1,394
1,375
1,419
347
455
531
1,009
1,174
1,236
1,072
1,177
2,600
2,610
2,864
2,848
2,045
2,063
2,132
2,207
6,129
6,447
7,054
6,433
2,884
4,483
4,700
3,879
997
955
1,016
1,064
1,463
1,476
1,455
1,579
663
678
766
837
1,166
1,324
1,279
1,335
3,084
3,212
3,317
3,481
2,245
2,472
4,304
p4,445
(NA)
3,128
1,229
pl,120
(NA)
1,616
pl,459
(NA)
954
P 2,8l6
P 804
1,303
pi,216
(NA)
P 3,355
1973
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
2,639
2,658
1975
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
(NA)
(NA)
2,514
3,422
P 2,319
(NA)
(NA)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Year
and
quarter
Securities investments
Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
561. U.S. investments
abroad
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
564. Foreign purchases
of U.S. securities
565. U.S. purchases
of foreign securities
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
575. Banking and other
capital transactions, net
570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
1972
First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
-221
216
156
229
1,121
335
1,315
760
1,059
961
718
1,769
476
318
-203
28
-747
-837
-993
-1,311
-923
365
-1,121
-1,518
371
583
990
711
2,065
1,025
539
1,339
1,718
489
1,173
675
-30
111
216
462
-910
-571
-1,567
-1,551
-2,096
-580
-152
-3,050
1,177
1,700
-1
-653
745
1,572
1,828
3,310
692
440
204
-663
646
313
304
726
-1,294
-670
-930
-1,487
-7,019
-7,616
-1,783
-3,870
340
p623
(NA)
1,041
p2,001
(NA)
650
p678
(NA)
2,031
pi,001
(NA)
-1,407
p-1,286
(NA)
-2,133
p-3,463
(NA)
1973
First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
2
Beginning with the 1st quarter 1975, data include nonmarketable nonconvertible U.S. Treasury bonds and notes which are not
included prior to this date. On the old basis, the figure for the 1st quarter 1975 is $113,143 million.
NOVEMBER 1975
ItCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Defense Indicators
Receipts and Expenditures
Year
and
month
601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (-), national income
and product
accounts
(Ana. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
602. Federal
expenditures,
national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
264. National
defense purchases
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
(Mil.dol.)
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
648. New orders, defense
products
(Mil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
(Mil.dol.)
1973
-11.2
249.1
260.2
75.0
6,840
7,337
7,361
1,631
1,838
1,704
1.62
1.63
1.80
2,824
2,899
2,947
April
May
June
-7.4
255.0
262.4
74.0
6,739
7,269
7,069
1,349
1,730
1,633
1.90
1.79
1.96
2,568
3,171
2,897
July
August
September..
-1.7
261.8
263.4
73.3
7,203
7,039
6,260
1,483
1,676
1,099
1.18
1.90
1.34
2,106
3,276
3,222
October . . . .
November . .
December . .
-2.3
268.3
270.6
75.3
7,671
7,443
6,794
1,788
1,771
1,149
1.83
2.12
1.45
3,176
3,515
2,850
r\
•O
278.1
281.0
75.8
7,527
7,348
7,186
2,077
1,708
1,642
2.18
2.06
1.46
3,3^8
3,141
2^677
-3.0
288.6
291.6
76.6
7,883
7,302
7,663
2,040
1,330
1,412
1.53
2.08
1.75
4,343
2,881
3,440
-1.9
302.8
304.7
78.4
8,177
8,199
7,781
1,919
1,692
M42
1.38
3.23
1.68
3,494
4,153
3,502
-24.5
294.7
319.3
84.O
7,603
8,138
8,228
1,446
2,349
1,431
1.40
2.35
1.67
4,161
3,777
2,532
-54.4-
284.1
338.5
84.7
7,-609
7,508
8,223
1,509
2,349
-103.3
251.8
355.0
84.8
7,95.2
8,235
8,450
1,425
1,850
1,642
p-67.1
P295.7
r362.7
r86.1
8,718
9,077
7,791
(NA)
2,074
2,821
1,535
(NA)
January
February
March
1974
January
February . . .
March
2
April
May
June
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
,
July
August
September..
October
November . . ,
December . . ,
1,424
2.15
1.70
1.64
1.66
1.91
1.82
2.05
rl.99
3,693
3,987
2,817
4,122
3,926
3,773
3,842
5,299
(NA)
pl.15
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1975
89
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
I ^ P R I C E MOVEMENTS
Fixed weighted price index,
gross private product
Year
and
month
211. Index
Consumer price indexes
211c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
781. Index©
(1958=100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
782. Food
All items
(1967=100)
781c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(Percent)
783. Commodities less
food
784. Services©
(1967=100)
781c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
1973
January
February
March
145.1
April
May
June
148.0
7.4
127.7
128.6
129.8
0.5
0.6
0.8
6.8
7.3
7.9
129.2
131.0
134.0
121.0
121.4
121.9
135.7
136.2
136.6
8.1
130.7
131.5
132.4
0.7
0.5
0.6
7.5
10.0
8.7
136.2
137.9
139.8
122.4
122.8
123.3
137.1
137.6
138.1
8.4
132.7
135.1
135.5
0.3
1.7
0.3
8.9
9.6
9.7
139.9
148.8
148.0
123.5
123.9
124.2
138.4
139.3
140.6
136.6
137.6
138.5
0.8
0.8
0.7
11.4
10.0
11.7
149.0
150.9
152.1
125.0
125.9
126.8
142.2
143.0
143.8
139.7
141.5
143.1
1.1
1.1
11.3
11.8
12.3
154.6
157.4
158.2
128.4
129.8
131.5
144.8
143.9
145.5
146.9
0.7
1.0
11.8
11.8
12.1
158.3
159.7
160.3
132.9
134.2
135.8
148.0
149.5
150.9
12.7
12.5
12.2
159.4
162.2
I64.8
137.5
139.3
140.8
152.6
154.2
156.0
... .
July
August
September
151.0
...
October
November
December
9.1
154.4
1974
January
February
March
159.5
April
May
June
164.2
July
August
September
169.6
October
November
December
174.7
U.I
12.2
13.8
148.0
149.9
151.7
1.0
0.9
0.8
1.1
1.2
145.9
147.1
153.0
154.3
155.4
0.9
0.9
0.8
11.7
10.4
8.5
166.9
168.8
170.4
141.8
142.9
143.8
157.3
158.7
160.1
7.7
156.1
157.2
157.8
0.6
0.5
0.3
7.8
6.6
6.6
171.9
171.4
170.3
144.5
145.6
146.4
161.3
162.6
163.2
5.5
158.6
159.3
160.6
0.6
0.4
0.8
7.6
6.8
170.9
171.8
174.4
147.5
147.8
148.5
I64.I
164.5
165.7
162.3
162.8
163.6
1.2
0.2
0.5
7.4
177.4
177.4
177.6
149.9
150.7
151.2
166.6
167.4
169.1
164.6
0.7
179.9
151.7
170.1
12.6
1975
January
February
March
178.0
April
May
June
180.4
July
August
September
. . . .
r7.3
rl83.6
. .
October
November
December
7.2
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
•'•Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-quarter changes are placed
on 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
90
NOVEMBER 1975
Ittlt
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con.
Wholesale price indexes
Year
and
month
750. All
commodities®
58. Manufactured
goods®
751. Processed
foods and feeds
752. Farm
products
Industrial commodities
55. I n d e x ®
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
55c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(Percent)
55c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1973
January
February
March
124.5
126.9
129.8
121.6
123.6
125.7
131.7
135.5
140.4
143.3
147.5
158.1
120.0
121.3
122.8
0.2
0.9
1.1
8.0
8.6
9.3
April
May
June
130.5
133.2
136.0
126.4
128.3
130.1
141.5
145.9
150.7
161.7
170.2
178.4
124.2
125.3
126.0
0.8
0.8
0.7
9.4
8.6
7.8
July
August
September...
134.3
142.1
139.7
129.1
133.4
131.8
145.5
3 64.9
1.56.3
172.1
211.8
201 < 8
126.1
126.7
127.4
0.2
0.6
0.7
8.4
10.0
12.3
October
November . . .
December . . .
138.7
139.2
141.8
132.0
132.8
135.1
154.5
154.8
155.7
193.6
189.9
189.9
128.5
130.1
132.2
1.1
1.5
1.8
16.5
19.8
24.9
January
February
March
146.6
149.5
151.4
138.6
140.9
143.6
161.1
162.6
161.5
200.6
200.4
193.5
135.3
138.2
142.4
2.0
2.0
2.8
28,
31-
April
May
June
152.7
155.0
155.7
146.0
149.3
151.5
I61.4
160.0
156.0
187.9
180.8
164.5
146.6
150.5
153.6
2.6
2.5
2.2
34.4
35.6
30.8
July
August
September...
161.7
167.4
167.2
156.4
161.8
162.4
166.9
177.9
177.0
180.8
186.8
I84.4
157.8
161.6
162.9
2.9
2.5
1.0
27.9
23.8
19.5
October
November . . .
December . . .
170.2
171.9
171.5
165.2
166.2
166.9
185.0
193.8
188.2
193.1
194.0
186.1
I64.8
165.8
166.1
1.5
0.8
0.4
14.0
9.5
7.6
January
February
March
171.8
171.3
170.4
168.2
168.0
167.8
185.3
180.3
175.7
177.9
170.2
168.1
167,
168.
168.9
0.5
0.4
0.1
4.7
3.4
3-4
April
May
June
172.1
173.2
173.7
168.7
169.5
170.1
181.9
180.3
178.1
179.3
184.5
181.7
169.7
170.3
170.7
0.1
0.2
0.4
3.2
3.7
5.0
July
August
September...
175.7
176.7
177.7
171.4
172.3
173.0
183.9
184.5
186.3
193.7
190.7
198.9
171.2
172.2
173.1
0.4
0.6
0.7
7.3
October
November . . .
December . . .
178.9
174.5
187.7
203.2
174.7
1.2
1974
32.2
1975
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month percent changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month percent changes
are placed on the 4th month.
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1975
91
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adj.1
Year
and
month
Real earnings
Current dollar earnings
740.Index
(1967=100)
740c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)
740c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
741.Index
(1967=100)
741c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)
741c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
859. Real
spendable
avg. weekly
earnings of
nonagri. prod,
or nonsupv.
workers
(1967 dol.)
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy
Current dollar compensation
745. Index
(1967=100)
745c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
745c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1973
January
February
March
142.3
142.7
143.3
0.4
0.3
0.4
6.4
6.1
6.1
111.2
110.8
110.4
-0.1
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-1.1
-1.7
96.42
96.76
96.40
144.9
April
May
June
144.6
145.0
6
0.9
0.3
0.7
6.6
7.2
7.7
110.6
110.3
110.4
0.2
-0.3
0.1
-0.8
-2.6
-0.9
96.34
95.83
95.89
147.0
July
August
September...
147.0
147.7
148.8
0.7
0.5
0.7
6.9
7.5
7.3
110.8
109.4
109.9
0.4
-1.3
0.5
-1.9
-1.9
-2.2
96.23
94.78
95.18
149-5
October
November . . .
December . . .
149.5
150.3
151.2
0.5
0.5
0.6
6.7
7.0
7.0
109.5
109.2
109.2
-0.4
-0.3
0.0
-4.2
-2.8
-4.3
94.58
94-66
94.22
152.4
January
February
March
151.8
152.8
153.9
0.4
0.7
0.7
7.0
8.5
9.8
108.4
107.9
107.5
-0.7
-0.5
-0.4
-3.9
-2.9
-2.2
92.94
92.75
91.99
155.3
April
May
June
154.7
156.5
158.5
0.5
1.2
1.3
9.9
10.4
10.9
107.4
107.6
107.9
-0.1
0.2
0.3
-1.7
-1.2
-1.1
90.91
91.62
91.34
159.6
July
August
September..,
159.2
160.6
162.0
0.4
0.9
0.9
11.5
10.0
9.0
107.5
107.2
107.0
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-1.0
-2.2
-2.9
91.37
90.68
90.16
163.5
October
November . .
December . .
163.3
164.2
165.4
0.8
0.6
0.7
9.1
9.2
8.9
106.8
106.4
106.4
-0.2
-0.4
0.0
-2.3
-1.1
0.4
89.91
88.61
88.67
167.3
January
February . . .
March
166.3
167.8
169.1
0.5
0.9
0.8
7.6
8.0
8.4
106.3
106.6
107.2
-0.1
0.3
0.6
-0.2
1.3
1.7
88.43
88.08
87.93
170.8
April
May
169.4
170.6
172.2
0.2
0.7
0.9
106.8
107.1
107.3
-0.4
0.3
0.2
0.7
rl.4
rO.l
87.58
91.67
91.53
173.9
July
August
September..
173.1
rl74.6
rl75.1
0.5
r0.9
rO.3
8.4
r8.3
r7.3
p8.8
106.6
rlO7.4
rlO7.2
-0.7
rO.8
r-0.2
pl.4
91.01
r91.82
r91.70
rl77.2
October
November . .
December . .
P176.8
pl.O
P1O7.5
pO.3
10.2
7.4
5.9
1
.o
7.0
7.2
8.0
8.6
1974
7.8
9,4
11.5
9.8
10.1
10.0
9.6
8,9
1975
June
8.6
r8.4
7.4
r8.0
p91.66
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
1
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-quarter changes are placed
on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle
month of the 3d quarter.
2
92
NOVEMBER 1975
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy-Con.
Year
and
month
748. First
year average
changes
Real compensation
746. Index
(1967=100)
746c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
746c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Output per man-hour, total
private economy
Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries©
(Ann. rate,
percent)
749. Average
changes over
life of
contract
(Ann. rate,
percent)
770.Index
(1967=100)
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm
770c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
770c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967=100)
•1.8
113.9
0.5
113.4
-2.7
113.4
-2.2
113.2
-2.3
111.2
-3.7
110.7
-1.8
110.1
-0.8
109.1
r2.2
108.4
1973
3.S
January .
February
March . .
112.5
April
May.
June
111.7
July
August
September.
111.3
October..
November
December
110.8
7.1
-2.5
115.5
7.8
114.9
7.2
6.3
-1.1
114.6
-2.5
6.1
-1.6
-1.9
6.7
-0.6
-1.7
4.6
5.6
0.5
5.6
0.7
114.8
-1.8
1974
-3.9
January .
February
March . . ,
109.7
April
May.
June
109.7
July
August
September.
109.2
October..
November
December
108.5
6.9
6.2
-8.4
112.3
0.1
9.2
7.7
-2.1
11.9
-2.0
8.0
-1.5
112.0
-1.0
-2.6
0.3
112.4
U.6
8
17
-0.7
-5.1
110.5
1975
0.7
January . .
February .
March . . .
108,. 6
April
May .
June
109.0
July
August
September.
1.3
rlO8.9
P13.0
P7.5
r-0.4
-0.6
110.3
r-0.3
P9.3
pll.4
P 7.7
4.2
111.5
p8.6
109.9
rll.O
rll4.4
rll2.8
October..
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
^•Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter
changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
ItCII NOVEMBER 1975
93
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Unemployment rates
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month
841. Total
(Thous.)
842.
Employed
(Thous.)
843. Unemployed
844. Males
20 years and
over
(Thous.)
(Percent)
845. Females
20 years and
over
(Percent)
846. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age
(Percent)
847.
White
(Percent)
848. Negro
and other races
(Percent)
1973
January
February
March
86,964.
87,703
88,043
82,633
83,276
83,686
4,331
4,427
4,357
3.4
3.4
3.4
5.2
4.9
4.9
14.3
15.4
14.2
4.5
4.5
4.4
9.0
8.9
April
May
June
88,296
88,325
88,791
83,877
84,021
84,487
4,419
4,304
4,304
3.3
3.3
3.2
4.8
4.6
4.9
15.3
15.0
14.0
4.4
4.4
4.3
9.3
9.1
8.9
July
August
September...
88,902
88,816
89,223
84,679
84,582
84,983
4,223
4,234
4,240
3.1
3.1
3.1
4.8
4.9
4.8
14.3
14.3
14.3
4.2
4.2
4.2
9.2
8.9
9.3
October
November . . .
December . . .
89,568
89,852
90,048
85,452
85,577
85,646
4,116
4,275
4,402
3.0
3.1
3.2
4.5
4.7
5.0
14.1
14.6
14.4
4.1
4.2
4.4
8.4
8.8
8.4
January
February
March
90,465
90,551
90,381
85,800
85,861
85,779
4,665
4,690
4,602
3.4
3.5
3.4
5.1
5.1
5.0
15.5
15.0
15.0
4.7
4.6
4.6
9.2
9.2
9.2
April
May
June
90,324
90,753
90,857
85,787
86,062
4,537
4,691
4,769
3.5
3.4
3.5
5.0
5.1
5.1
14.0
15.6
15.8
4.5
4.7
4.8
B.B
9.3
9.0
July
August
September..
91,283
91,199
91,705
86,403
86,274
86,402
4,880
4,925
5,303
3.6
3.S
3.9
5.2
5.3
5.7
16.2
15.3
16.7
4.8
4.9
5.3
9.4
9.4
9.9
October
91,844
91,708
91,803
86,304
85,689
85,202
5,540
6,019
6,601
4.3
4.6
5.3
5.6
6.6
7.2
17.1
17.4
18.1
5.5
5.9
6.4
10.9
11.6
12.5
January
February . . .
March
92,091
91,511
91,829
84,562
84,027
83,849
7,529
7,484
7,980
6.0
6.2
6.8
8.1
8.1
8.5
20.8
19.9
20.6
7.5
7.4
8.0
13.4
13.5
14.2
April
May
June
92,262
92,940
92,340
8,176
8,538
7,896
7.0
7.3
7.0
8.6
8.1
20.4
21.8
19.2
8.1
8.5
7.9
July
August
September..
92,916
93,146
93,191
84,086
84,402
84,444
85,078
85,352
85,418
7,838
7,794
7,773
7.0
6.6
7.0
7.9
7.7
7.5
19.1
21.1
7.9
7.6
7.6
14.6
14.7
13.7
13.0
14.0
14.3
93,443
85,441
8,002
7.1
7.8
7.9
14.2
1974
November . .
December . .
1975
October....
November . .
December . .
19.3
19.9
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 60.
94
NOVEMBER 1975
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
H H ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
Year
and
quarter
207. GNP gap (potential less actual)
206. Potential GNP
205. Actual GNP
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
770.9
786.6
798.1
814.2
806.8
814.7
822.8
830.9
+35.9
+28.1
+24.7
+16.7
832.8
837.4
840.8
84-5.7
839.1
847.3
855.7
864.1
+6.3
+9.9
+14.9
+18.4
830.5
872.6
881.2
889.9
898.7
+42.1
827d
823.1
804.0
780.0
783.6
r808.3
907.6
916.5
925.5
+127.6
1973
First quarter
Second quarter ,
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
+54.1
+66.8
+94.7
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
+132.9
r+117.2
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 61.
Special Note on Potential GNP
The following note has been provided by the Council of Economic
Advisers regarding potential GNP.
The idea of potential GNP has had a long history. Its measurement by
the Council of Economic Advisers was started in the Economic Report of
the Council in 1962. Since that time, it has been used as a standard with
which to evaluate the past and future behavior of the economy.
Potential GNP purports to measure what the economy would produce
if all of its resources were fully utilized given the technology and
institutional arrangements that have existed at the time. "Fully utilized" has
never meant the kind of utilization that would prevail, say, under wartime
conditions but rather the utilization that could be expected under conditions
ot reasonable price stability. This nas always Deen less than complete
utilization. Under ordinary circumstances, some unemployment is present
because some workers are in the process of changing jobs; similarly, some old
plants are idle because market conditions do not permit them to operate
profitably. In the past, this degree of utilization has been reflected in an
overall unemployment rate of 4 percent. The rate of inflation associated
with that degree of unemployment has typically not been specified.
Furthermore, notions of what constitutes reasonable price stability can vary
over time.
Potential GNP is not something ordinarily observable. In practice, the
Bill NOVEMBER 1975
Council in 1962 made the judgment that the economy was operating at 1UU
percent of potential in mid-1955. Since that time potential GNP has been
estimated to grow at differing annual rates, as follows: 3.5 percent from the
first quarter of 1952 to the fourth quarter of 1962, 3.75 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1962 to the fourth quarter of 1965, 4 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1965 to the fourth quarter of 1969. At the beginning of
1970, the Council estimated that after the fourth quarter of 1969 potential
was growing at an annual rate of 4.3 percent, reflecting a rise of 1.8 percent
in the potential labor force, a 0.2 percent decline in annual hours of work,
and a 2.7 percent rise in output per manhour at potential. Drawing on a new
study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("The United States Economy in
1985", Monthly Labor Review, December 1973), the Council has lowered its
estimate of potential growth after 1969 to 4 percent per annum, reflecting
:he following component changes: labor force, 1.8 percent; annual hours,
—0.3 percent; output per manhour, 2.5 percent.
Although potential is presented in the chart on page 61 and the table
above as a point estimate each quarter, it is clearly subject to a margin of
error and consequently, as with any measure of capacity, should be used
with considerable caution. There are uncertainties regarding both the growth
and the level of potential. It cannot be reasonably assumed that potential
grows in each year or quarter at the same annual rate. Some qualifications
about the measure of potential appear on pages 64-65 of the 1974 Economic
Report.
95
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
Year
and
month
850. Ratio,
output to capacity,
manufacturing
851. Ratio,
inventories to sales,
manufacturing
and trade
852. Ratio, manufacturers' unfilled
orders to shipments,
durable goods
industries
853. Ratio,
production of
business equipment
to consumer goods
(Percent)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
(1967=100)
854. Ratio,
personal saving
to disposable
personal income
(Ratio)
860. Ratio,
help-wanted
advertising
to persons
unemployed
(Ratio)
857. Vacancy rate
in total rental
housing®
(Percent)
1973
1.47
1.46
2.59
2.60
2.67
90.1
90.8
90.7
0.075
0.866
0.847
0.867
5.7
April
May
June
1.46
1.46
1.48
2.73
2.78
2.89
91.4
92.0
92.9
0.078
0.842
0.871
0.878
5.8
July
August
September...
1.46
1.47
1.48
2.89
3.02
3.06
92.6
95.0
95.1
0.080
0.910
0.886
0.878
P 82.'6
1.46
1.45
1.49
3.01
3.04
3.13
95.2
95.7
96.6
0.095
0.918
0.877
0.825
5.8
January
February
March
p80.5
1.47
1.47
1.46
3.14
3.16
3.14
98.1
99.2
99.3
0.089
0.747
0.737
0.757
6.2
April
May
June
p80.1
1.46
1.47
1.49
3.20
3.21
3.30
99.5
100.4
100.0
0.074
0.787
0.755
0.743
6.3
July
August
September..
p79.4
1.48
1.48
1.52
3.39
3.45
3.46
101.0
99.2
102.7
0.066
0.720
0.689
0.601
6.2
1.54
1.59
1.67
3.32
3.38
3.56
103.0
103.7
103.0
0.086
0.532
0.450
0.383
6.0
P68I2
.67
.66
.69
3.50
3.44
3.47
101.8
100.4
99.0
0.075
0.304
0.302
0.276
6.1
p67#.6
.64
.62
.59
3.29
3.33
3.30
96.5
94.9
92.4
0.106
0.269
0.258
0.305
6.3
r P 68. # 9
.56
.54
pl.53
3.29
r3.17
P3.O8
r90.8
r91.5
91.5
r0.078
0.319
0.317
rO.318
6.2
(NA)
p90.7
January
p82.8
February
March
October
November . . .
December . . .
1974
October....
November . .
December . .
1975
January
February . . .
March
April
May
June
July
August
September..
October....
November ..
December ..
(NA)
pO.3O9
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p ' \ preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 62.
96
NOVEMBER 1975
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
D1. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
(35 industries)
9-month
span
D11. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
The Conference Board1
(17 industries)
1-quarter
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
1-month
span
52.4
92.9
52.4
52.4
33.3
35.7
65.7
61.4
80.0
90.0
85.7
91.4
82
26.2
59.5
69.0
28.6
26.2
23.8
61.4
54.3
51.4
82.
85.
82,
53
July
August
September..,
45.2
31.0
19.0
52.4
35.7
85.7
45.7
51.4
50.0
80.0
62.9
68.6
59
October
November . . .
December . . .
23.8
73.8
42.9
23.8
35.7
9.5
62.9
55.7
34.3
74.3
68.6
January
February
March
26.2
59.5
42.9
35.7
7.1
7.1
65.7
57.1
60.0
82.9
85.7
71.4
47
April
May
7.1
92.9
35.7
57.1
65.7
47.1
74.3
68.6
60.0
59
21.4
47.6
23.8
4.8
0.0
11.9
4.8
4.8
47.6
60.0
45.7
40.0
45.7
14.3
14.3
53
38.1
9.5
23.8
0.0
4.8
9.5
45.7
18.6
17.1
11.4
5.7
18.6
35
19.0
11.9
33.3
0.0
23.8
19.0
48.6
51.4
34.3
17.1
25.7
31.4
47
61.9
47.6
81.0
r59.5
r69.0
p6l.9
77.1
42.9
54.3
45.7
r60.0
p71.4
P53
3-quarter
span
D34. Profits, mfg.,
First National City
Bank (about 1,000
corporations)
1-quarter
span
4-quarter
span©
D19. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks
(65-71 industries)2©
1-month
span
9-month
span
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
span
9-month
span
1973
January
February
March
April
May
June
59
94
62
76
61
82
65
78
26.8
14.5
19.6
26.5
19.1
25.0
84.6
84.6
76.9
92.3
92.3
92.3
77
21.7
14.7
15.4
19.1
17.6
30.9
61.5
80.8
76.9
92.3
92.3
92.3
74
66.2
41.9
88.2
23.9
16.4
26.9
73.1
65.4
46.2
92.3
69.2
76.9
75
89.0
7.5
13.4
35.8
53.7
35.8
46.2
69.2
69.2
100.0
84.6
76.9
71
85.8
50.7
91.0
28.8
10.6
6.1
84.6
69.2
53.8
69.2
76.9
61.5
59
9.7
27.3
39.4
6.1
10.6
4.6
61.5
38.5
53.8
61.5
46.2
46.2
51
4.5
7.6
1.5
4.6
3.1
10.8
38.5
46.2
42.3
46.2
23
23.
50
66.2
70.8
9.2
23.1
38.5
70.8
19.2
23.1
7.7
23,
23,
23.1
58
95.4
93.8
86.2
62.0
98.5
100.0
53.8
42.3
38.5
11.5
15.4
15.4
53
69.2
61.0
70.8
95.4
93.8
89.2
46.2
38.5
61.5
38.5
61.5
61.5
71
64.6
6.2
40.0
55
60
1974
June
July
August
,
September..,
October
November . . .
December . . ,
59
59
47
15
59
58
58
40
1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September...
October
November . . .
December . . .
78.6
r90.5
r8l.O
P45.2
74.3
47.1
r51.4
P 62.9
(NA)
P12
(NA)
48
57.7
65.4
76.9
70.8
3
3
53.8
46.2
46.2
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are considered rising.) Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d
month and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, 3-quarter indexes on the 1st month of the 3d quarter, and 4-quarter
indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in D19, which requires no adjustment, and D34, which is adjusted as an index (1-quarter span only).
Table E4 identifies the components for many of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ .
Graphs of these series are shown on page 63.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Based on 71 components in January 1973, on 69 components through April 1973, on 68 components through October 1973, on 67 components through April 1974, on 66 components through September 1974, and on 65 components thereafter. Component data are not
shown in table E4 but are available from the source agency. 3Average for November 4, 11, and 18.
2
NOVEMBER 1975
97
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
1
HDIFFUSIOI^i INDEXES-Cori.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Leading Indicators-Con.
Year
and
month
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas)1
D41. Number of employees
on nonagriculural payrolls
(30 industries)
D47. Index of industrial
production (24 industries)
D58. Index of wholesale
prices (22 manufacturing
industries)®
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
9-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
67.0
74.5
36.2
68.1
66,0
74.5
68.3
86.7
86.7
85.0
83.3
85.0
79.2
91.7
62.5
83.3
79.2
83.3
95.5
97.7
95.5
100.0
95.5
95.5
87.0
76.1
65.2
100.0
97.8
95.7
April
May
June
53.2
36.2
57.4
38.3
68.1
57.4
63.3
65.0
76.7
83.3
76.7
70.0
50.0
77.1
54.2
79.2
77.1
79.2
95.5
90.9
84.1
95.5
95.5
95.5
30.4
69.6
56.5
100.0
100.0
87.0
July
August
September
63.8
46.8
44.7
57.4
8.5
8.5
65.0
65.0
56.7
68.3
81.7
83.3
70.8
70.8
62.5
79.2
70.8
54.2
75.0
91.0
77.3
90.9
95.5
95.5
73.9
34.8
73.9
69.6
47.8
91.3
October
November
December
46.8
72.3
2.1
38.3
29.8
23.4
76.7
76.7
68.3
83.3
76.7
75.0
45.8
62.5
45.8
45.8
35.4
45.8
79.5
86.4
90.9
95.5
90.9
90.9
65.2
56.5
43.5
87.0
95.7
87.0
January
February
March
53.2
83.0
40.4
19.1
14.9
34.0
53.3
41.7
48.3
66.7
46.7
46.7
35.4
37.5
64.6
39.6
33.3
52.1
90.9
95.5
88.6
95.5
95.5
95.5
78.3
60.9
78.3
91.3
78.3
91.3
April
May
June
51.1
56.4
34.0
12.8
55.3
44.7
41.7
48.3
48.3
43.3
a.7
50.0
47.9
70.8
50.0
54.2
41.7
41.7
91.0
84.1
81.8
95.5
90.9
90.9
47.8
60.9
39.1
91.3
87.0
78.3
July
August
September
75.5
48.9
28.7
0.0
6.4
8.5
60.0
55.0
51.7
46.7
33.3
18.3
39.6
37.5
52.1
31.3
12.5
10.4
81.8
77.3
68.2
77.3
72.7
72.7
95.7
52.2
60.9
52.2
50.0
60.9
October
November
December
46.8
8.5
53.2
2.1
4.3
2.1
35.0
10.0
16.7
21.7
15.0
10.0
33.3
20.8
8.3
12.5
12.5
8.3
72.7
68.2
65.9
72.7
68.2
68.2
43.5
21.7
52.2
82.6
65.2
60.9
January
February
March
55.3
29.8
55.3
6.4
12.8
36.2
13.3
13.3
20.0
10.0
11.7
15.0
16.7
27.1
20.8
12.5
10.4
29.2
63.6
63.6
59.1
68.2
72.7
72.7
73.9
67.4
34.8
78.3
87.0
82.6
April
May
June
44-7
66.0
46.8
68.1
68 1
57 4
43.3
66.7
38*3
35.0
r53.3
r73.3
58.3
47.9
75.0
50.0
54.2
r75.0
70.5
63.6
68.2
77.3
75.0
81.8
67.4
89.1
65.2
100.0
r95.7
P91.3
July
August
September
68.1
42.6
31.9
65.0
r81.7
r83.3
p70.0
p80.0
79.2
r70.8
r87.5
p79.2
75.0
88.6
90.9
90.9
45.7
r60.9
r56.5
1-month
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
1973
January
February
March
.. .
1974
1975
October
November
December
61.7
p60.4
86.4
p47.8
. . . .
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d
month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires
no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "o". preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by @.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
1
Component data are not available for publication and therefore are not shown in table E4.
98
NOVEMBER 1975
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change
1975
Diffusion index components
March
April
May
June
July
August
September1*
OctoberP
D1. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING1
(Average weekly hours)
All manufacturing industries
38.9
Percent rising of 21 components
(33)
+
39.1
-
(62)
39.0
+
(48)
39.3
+
(81)
+
39.4
39.7
+
(90)
(79)
39.8
o
(81)
39.8
(45)
Durable goods industries:
37.2
o
+
41.1
38.8
37.5
+
+
+
41.6
39.0
37.6
+
+
40.1
39.1
37.8
+
+
39.5
38.3
+
o
+
41.9
39.5
38.8
o
+
41.6
39.5
38.9
+
-
40.3
39.7
-
40.2
39.5
+
+
40.3
39.6
+
+
40.6
39.7
+
+
40.7
39.9
+
+
40.9
40.0
+
40.8
40.1
39.7
40.9
o
+
39.7
41.0
-
39.5
40.5
o
-
39.5
40.4
o
+
39.5
40.5
+
+
r40.0
r40.8
+
-
40.3
40.7
o
o
40.3
40.7
Electrical equipment and supplies
Transportation equipment
39.2
39.1
+
+
39.4
40.5
-
39.1
39.5
+
+
39.3
40.0
+
+
39.5
40.7
+
+
r39.6
41.2
o
-
39.6
40.7
o
-
39.6
40.5
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries.
39.1
37.7
+
+
39.2
38.1
+
o
39.3
38.1
+
+
39.4
38.3
+
-
39.7
38.1
- r39.5
+ 38.2
+
+
39.8
38.7
o
-
39.8
38.6
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
40.2
38.6
-
39.9
38.3
o
-
39.9
36.9
o
+
39.9
39.8
+
-
40.1
35.4
+
+
r40.7
r37.6
+
+
40.8
38.1
-
40.6
36.7
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
36.9
33.8
+
+
37.7
34.3
+
+
38.9
34.4
+
+
39.2
35.2
+
o
39.6
35.2
+
+
r40.4
r35.5
+
+
40.9
35.9
+
+
41.0
36.1
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing ..
40.5
37.0
-
40.4
36.8
+
-
40.9
36.7
+ a.5
o
36.7
+
o
41.6
36.7
+ r42.1
+ 37.1
+
-
42.2
37.0
+
-
42.3
36.9
Chemicals and allied products ,
Petroleum and coal products ..
40.4
41.7
-
40.3
41.0
+
+
40.6
41.5
+
-
40.7
41.2
+
40.9
+ a.3
+ r41.1
- r41.0
+
+
41.3
41.5
o
-
41.3
41.3
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c.
Leather and leather products
38.7
35.3
+
+
39.0
36.5
+
o
39.6
36.5
o
+
39.6
37.5
+
+
+ r40.1
+ 38.0
+
+
40.3
38.4
o
+
40.3
38.9
o
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
41.3
38.0
36.6
+
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
39.6
40.0
Fabricated metal products..
Machinery, except electrical
41.3
Nondurable goods industries:
40.0
37.8
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS'NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
35,973
+ 38,983
+ 39,428
+ 39,730
(34)
(77)
(43)
(54)
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products.
4,961
4,449
+ 5,395
+ 4,813
5,863
4,844
+ 5,887
- 4,700
Machinery, except electrical ..
Electrical machinery
6,759
4,662
+ 6,946
+ 5,316
+ 7,117
- 5,183
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries . . .
8,186
6,956
+ 8,738
+ 7,775
+ 8,769
- 7,652
All durable goods industries
Percent rising of 35 components
-
+ 41,681
(74)
2
42,688
- 42,227
(51)
(47)
+ 42,779
(63)
+ 6,189
+ 5,111
6,909
5,179
- 6,265
+ 5,196
6,9a
6,984
5,133
7,368
5,279
6,929
5,809
+ 7,120
- 5,144
7,619
5,338
9,194
7,832
+ 9,793
+ 7,941
9,758
8,104
+
+
9,379
8,174
9,982
8,520
5,328
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The " r " indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are all included in the
totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here.
NOVEMBER 1975
99
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1975
Diffusion index components
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES2
Industrial materials price index (1967=100) . . .
+ 182.3 + 186.4- - 184.2
- 173.2 - 171.5 + 179.6 + 184.2 - 181.9 - 179.3
(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components
OS)
(46)
(38)
(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(U.S. ton).
(metric ton).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(yard).
(meter).
0.400
0.882
0.086
0.190
72.206
79.593
3.514
7.747
0.379
0.836
0.277
0.248
0.399
0.880
0.081
0.179
84.830
93.508
3.382
7.456
0.376
0.829
0.210
0.230
0.384
0.847
0.073
0.161
76.961
84.834
3.298
7.271
0.378
0.833
0.198
0.217
(pound).
(kilogram).
(yard).
(meter).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(100 pounds).
(100 kilograms).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).
0.406
0.895
0.583
0.638
1.860
4.101
0.201
0.443
- 41.782
92.113
- 0.287
0.633
- 0.108
0.238
Copper scrap
Lead scrap
Steel scrap
Tin
Zinc
Burlap
Cotton, 12-market average
Print cloth, average
Wool tops
Hides
Rosin
Rubber
Tallow
0.424
0.431
0.935
0.950
0.590
0.581
0.645
0.635
1.849
2.143
4.076
4.724
0.227
0.255
0.500
0.562
40.972 - 39.068
90.327
86.129
0.291
0.275
0.642
0.606
0.116
0.123
0.256
0.271
+
+
+
+
(62)
(58)
0.366
0.807
0.050
0.110
70.675
77.905
3.391
7.476
0.383
0.844
0.200
0.219
0.418
0.922
0.051
0.112
58.448
64.427
3.336
7.355
0.387
0.853
0.183
0.200
0.438
0.966
0.446
0.983
0.581
0.635
2.119
4.672
0.269
0.593
29.849
65.805
0.315
0.694
0.127
0.280
+ 0.592
0.647
- 2.044
4.506
+ 0.259
0.571
- 30.461
67.154
+ 0.289
0.637
+ 0.127
0.280
(65)
(77)
(46)
+ 0.445 + 0.452 - 0.432
0.996
0.952
0.981
+ 0.066 + 0.081 + O.O85
0.179
0.187
0.146
+ 70.794 + 81.303 - 68.088
89.620
75.053
78.036
- 3.229 + 3.355
o 3.336
7.119
7.396
7.355 + 0.395 + 0.405
+ 0.390
0.871
0.893
0.860
- 0.177
- 0.177 + 0.180
0.197
0.194
0.194
+ 0.472 + 0.505 - 0.496
1.041
1.113
1.093
+ 0.588 - 0.584 + 0.593
0.639
0.643
0.649
+ 2.318 + 2.358 + 2.402
5.198
5.110
5.295
- 0.254 - 0.253 + 0.286
0.558
0.560
0.631
- 26.614 + 28.817 - 28.643
63.530
63.082
63.146
- 0.305 + 0.319 - 0.301
0.703
0.672
0.664
+ 0.143 + 0.155 - 0.141
0.342
0.315
0.311
(46)
-
0.422
0.930
-
0.076
0.168
- 62.887
69.320
+ 3.386
7.465
-
0.398
0.877
+ 0.183
0.200
+ 0.511
1.127
- 0.576
0.630
+ 2.493
5.496
- 0.272
0.600
- 28.614
63.082
+ 0.318
0.701
+ 0.149
0.328
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 3
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls
Percent rising of 30 components
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products . . .
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products..
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c...
Leather and leather products
-76,468 0 76,462 +76,510
(20)
(43)
84
448
347
479
84
444
349
478
923
992
o
+
+
+
1,372
1,123
1,126
292
291
303
301
1,119 + 1,125
64
62
727
745
1,008
1,020
474
471
644
639
563
558
122
121
426
430
207
209
+
950
993
1,400
1,143
1,122
-76,343 + 76,679 + r77,023 +r77,275 +77,492
(38)
(67)
+
84
454
354
479
905
985
1,339
1,113
1,151
287
303
+
+
o
82
459
351
477
889
979
1,317
1,106
1,155
286
303
+
+
o
+
+
(65)
(82)
(83)
81
463
355
477
878
960
1,300
1,097
1,143
287
307
77
469
+
r366
+
+
892
+
+
o rl,300
+
1,131
- rl,142
r286
+
311
r75
+
r475
+
r379
+
r486
+
r912
+
1,001
+ rl,3l6
+ rl,142
- rl,141
+
291
+
r3l6
(70)
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
75
479
377
488
906
1,004
1,318
1,163
1,148
293
314
1,166
+ rl,147 o 1,147 +
66
65
o
r65 +
r820 +
+
r800 +
835
1,106
+
o rl,071 + rl,086 +
r487 +
491
+
479 +
r632
631
+
r632 o
r571 +
574
+
r566 +
129 o
129
+
+
128 +
r462 +
472
o
+
r453 +
226 +
231
+
+
220 +
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (0) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The " r " indicates revised;
" p " , preliminary; and " N A " , not available.
Average for November 4, 11, and 18.
2
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The industrial materials price index is not
seasonally adjusted. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
100
+
o
1,131
62
766
1,033
472
636
562
123
436
212
+
o
+
+
1,133
62
771
1,043
469
631
560
125
436
215
-
1,131
65
111
1,071
474
629
560
127
439
219
NOVEMBER 1975
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1975
Diffusion index components
April
March
May
September1*
August1"
July
June
OctoberP
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS-Con.'
(Thousands of employees)
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service
Federal Government
State and local government
738
3,439
4,491
4,175
732
3,441
4,508
4,176
12,671
4,209
13,878
2,731
11,961
729
3,467
4,506
4,178
12,673
4,207
13,864
2,733
11,885
741
3,392
4,469
4,153
12,724
4,202
13,871
2,738
11,953
12,682
4,208
13,889
2,732
11,994
743
3,395
4,464
4,161
12,823
4,203
13,990
2,745
12,071
749
3,415
4,466
4,159
12,857
4,218
14,050
2,756
12,099
749
3,416
4,466
4,180
12,862
4,236
+ 14,126
+ 2,765
- 12,065
114.0
+ 116.0
770
3,387
4,474
4,182
12,850
4,247
14,174
2,763
12.127
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1
(1967=100)
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components2 .
Durable manufactures:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and allied goods
Nonelectrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments
Lumber, clay, and glass
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous manufactures
Nondurable manufactures:
Textiles, apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods and tobacco
Foods
Tobacco products
Mining:
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Metal, stone, and earth minerals .
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
110.0
109.9
+
110.1
(21)
(58)
(48)
(75)
(79)
(71)
98.1
112.9
95.0
112.4
89.9
110.9
91.8
110.9
r92.8
109.7
96.5
112.7
95.8
115.3
11913
104.3
81.0
130.6
116.9
104.0
84.7
131.1
113.7
103.8
87.6
129.7
112.3
103.8
90.5
130.9
112.9
103.4
91.0
rl32.4
114.9
104.5
92.9
131.8
116.3
106.1
95.4
133.6
104.2
99.8
105.4
104.1
104.7
108.0
105.1
110.3
rl06.2
112.0
107.9
112.0
111! 6
106.'7
129.7
105.6
128.5
109.6
129.0
107.9
131.1
rl09*.Z
rl31.8
109.2
134.3
+ 110.2
+ 135.4
86.4
63.5
100.4
88.2
68.0
103.8
90.9
70.0
+ rll0.7
+ r92.9
+ r73.5
114.9
94.9
72.5
+ 102.6
+ 119.7
(NA)
+ 78.1
104 '.5
104.0
105.8
100.2
105.8
102.6
+
+
109.5 +
105.9 -
111.7
104.4
116.4
106.8
121.1
107.5
133^6
120.1
126.8
132! 8
120.2
133.5
135.* 7
118.5
132.7
+
+
+
138.2 + rl43.4
122.4 + I-124..6
140.1 + 141.6
146 !o
126.5
147.7
121'. 3
102.6
122.9
115.9
123." 8
103.8
-
102.2
104.8
105.7
148.7
127.0
149.9
125.5
126.9
(NA)
111.1 +
o
+
+
+
106.9
91.5
71.2
112.2 +
112.8
+
112.2
106.6
113.6
104.5
120.4
105.5
+ 120.6
- z-104.5
101.9
104.2
+ 113.6
+ 104.8
125.4
105.1
+
-
125.8
104.7
114.8
100.4
110.6
-
122.3
98.8
-
rllO.3
116.5
(60)
117.4
106.1
95.3 + rlO1.4
+
118.9
97.7
-
95.2
115.0
116.5
106.0
94.9
134.1
112.0
(NA)
(NA)
123.1
(NA)
(NA)
104.7
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
114.0
(NA)
106.8
147.2
150.7
127.0
(NA)
126.1
127.6
(NA)
114.5
105.0
106.3
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: To facilitate.interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (0) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The " r " indicates revised;
" p " , preliminary; and " N A " , not available.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
NOVEMBER 1975
101
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1975
Diffusion index components
March
April
May
June
July
October
September
August
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Millions of dollars)
All retail sales
2
Percent rising of 23 components
Grocery stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise)
+
+
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Shoe stores
45,951
+ 46,813
48,173
+ 48,578
+ 49,655
r49,925
-r49,473
+ 49,955
(35)
(67)
(89)
(65)
(46)
(61)
(56)
(48)
10,105
3,935
5,094
482
+ 10,255
+ 3,984
- 5,031
+
496
+ 10,531
- 3,933
- 5,017
+
510
rlO,429
r3,901
r5,201
- 10,219
+ 3,911
- 5,116
+
532
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
728
511
876
344
r799
r523
r948
r353
781
508
888
357
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
10,058
3,821
4,852
456
+
+
9,846
3,898
4,825
476
739
506
820
310
+
o
746
506
819
337
+
o
+
+
788
506
854
356
774
517
863
346
1,244
686
1,415
468
+
+
+
1,216
716
1,517
489
1,245
723
1,515
484
+ 1,280
688
o 1,515
478
rl,277
r711
1,505
r472
1,281
717
1,563
479
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
7,164
737
3,532
1,455
884
+
+
+
+
+
7,508
755
3,565
1,499
919
7,654
793
3,616
1,532
941
+ 8,082
768
+ 3,790
- 1,525
927
r8,120
r751
r3,832
rl,526
r929
7,932
746
3,800
1,540
931
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
174.5
(86)
Furniture, home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
+
-
1,199
660
1,355
464
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
-
6,623
738
3,497
1,488
903
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
509
+
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 3
(1967=100)
All manufacturing industries
Percent rising of 22 components
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and household durables
Nonmetallic minerals products
Iron and steel
167.8
168.7
+ 169.5
+ 170.1
171.4
172.3
173.0
(59)
(70)
(64)
(68)
(75)
(89)
(91)
169.6
138.5
170.8
200.6
+
o
+
+
-
174.9
138.5
173.0
201.1
172.2
188.4
180.1
176.1
-I+
+
+
+
183.0
138.6
173.1
200.6
171.1
188.8
179.4
177.6
+
+
+
+
181.0
139.0
173.3
199.4
169.1
188.6
181.7
178.2
179.6
139.2
174.7
197.3
167.7
188.5
182.2
179.6
179.7
139.8
175.8
198.4
169.3
189.1
182.2
180.1
+
+
+
o
161.5
140.4
143.1
147.5
161.9
140.8
143.1
147.7
163.1
140.9
143.5
147.8
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
179.9
140.1
176.1
200.4
170.8
189.2
182.2
181.3
165.1
141.8
143.9
148.2
+
+
+
+
+
+
179.1
141.1
177.1
204.7
170.7
190.2
182.4
181.8
+
+
+
-
165.9
142.3
150.0
147.6
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment..
173.9
189.9
180.0
174.8
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
158.5
139.1
143.0
146.8
160.3
139.5
143.0
147.3
161.4
140.1
142.9
147.5
177.3
156.0
102.0
121.7
133.3
179.4
158.1
103.5
121.7
133.0
179.0
162.6
107.0
123.0
132.2
179.7
164.3
107.5
124.6
132.5
184.6
167.4
107.8
127.3
132.4
186.3
169.4
108.5
128.8
132.8
186.1
171.4
108.5
129.9
133.1
186.2
182.8
114.9
132.3
133.6
170.0
181.8
242.3
149.7
143.2
169.7
182.4
243.6
149.4
147.5
169.8
182.1
246.1
148.9
147.7
169.8
181.2
252.2
148.6
148.7
170.0
181.4
258.8
150.1
149.3
170.0
182.1
268.6
150.0
149.3
170.3
182.2
272.1
150.8
151.3
170.9
182.3
274.2
151.5
152.4
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products..
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and plastic products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products.
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. The "r" indicates revised;
, preliminary; and "NA", not available.
^ata are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
3
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
2
102
NOVEMBER 1975
ItO
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
IB
R l CONSUMER PRICES
Year
and
month
781. United
States,
index of
consumer
prices®
133. Canada,
index of
consumer
prices®
132. United
Kingdom,
index of
consumer
prices®
135. West
Germany,
index of
consumer
prices®
136. France, 138. Japan,
index of
index of
consumer
consumer
prices®
prices®
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
NDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
137. Italy,
index of
consumer
prices (Q)
47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production
123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production
122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
1973
128
129
130
125
126
126
144
144
145
126
127
128
136
136
137
138
140
April
May
June
131
132
132
128
129
130
148
149
150
129
129
130
138
139
140
July
August
September
133
135
136
131
133
133
151
151
152
130
130
131
141
October
November
December
137
138
138
134
135
136
155
157
158
132
133
134
January
February
March
140
142
U3
137
138
139
161
April
May
June
144
140
143
144
170
173
175
July
August
September
14S
150
152
146
147
148
October
November
December
153
154
155
156
January
February
March
. . . .
127
128
130
122
123
124
139
142
142
120
123
124
150
145
148
148
131
133
142
142
144
121
121
122
144
153
134
124
125
126
150
151
155
135
136
137
127
126
127
143
139
142
123
123
123
153
153
150
U5
146
147
154
156
160
138
139
141
127
128
126
144
146
146
125
123
119
153
154
148
135
137
137
150
152
153
167
173
174
UU
147
U9
125
125
125
148
U9
150
113
115
119
157
157
153
138
156
179
151
139
139
158
159
179
181
154
157
125
126
126
148
147
147
121
121
122
158
176
176
177
139
140
161
163
168
126
125
126
146
146
14-5
123
123
121
161
161
140
184
185
189
160
163
165
U9
151
152
182
185
188
141
142
142
167
168
169
193
194
195
171
174
176
125
122
117
145
143
142
120
120
118
152
146
142
U3
U3
151
146
151
1974
146
147
163
165
154
156
152
1975
January
February
March
153
154
155
192
196
200
144
144
H5
171
196
196
198
114
111
110
n9
173
174
178
181
181
139
157
158
140
139
119
116
rl43
143
139
April
May
June
159
159
161
156
157
159
207
216
220
I46
147
148
176
177
178
203
205
205
183
185
186
110
110
111
139
138
139
114
112
112
139
rl34
139
July
August
September
162
163
164
162
163
163
222
224
226
148
148
149
179
181
182
206
205
209
187
rl88
190
112
114
116
138
rl38
pl36
112
pill
(NA)
137
pl37
(NA)
October
November
December
165
(NA)
(NA)
149
(NA)
212
(NA)
pll6
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.
IICII
NOVEMBER 1975
103
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
E ^ N D U S T R I A L PRODUCTION-Con.
125. West
Germany,
ndex of
ndustrial
production
Year
and
month
(1967=100)
g | S T O C K PRICES
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production
121.0ECD,1
European
countries,
index of
industrial
production
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
19. United
States,
index of
stock
prices, 500
common
stocks®
143. Canada,
index of
stock
prices©
142. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices®
146. France,
index of
stock
prices®
145. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices®
148. Japan,
index of
stock
prices®
147. Italy,
index of
stock
prices®
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
1973
January
February
March
April
May
June
. . .
July
August
September
.
.
October
November
December
150
156
151
186
186
193
142
144
142
124
123
123
129
124
122
146
145
143
182
168
164
174
173
185
139
136
142
387
364
363
83
84
93
153
152
154
190
196
197
142
144
145
132
134
138
120
117
114
142
135
135
168
167
171
191
196
190
142
130
128
344
339
338
97
109
125
147
154
156
197
200
201
144
146
147
141
131
139
115
113
115
141
144
146
161
156
154
183
179
180
120
119
116
355
351
333
118
105
107
155
156
156
205
207
203
148
148
146
141
139
138
119
111
103
153
148
134
159
151
126
183
166
166
118
112
106
325
313
285
109
108
97
1974
January
February
March
. ...
154
153
152
202
202
199
147
147
147
148
143
144
104
102
106
139
141
146
126
124
116
173
167
153
110
110
108
293
308
304
106
108
112
April
May
June
. ..
152
152
153
196
200
189
148
148
150
148
145
147
101
98
98
136
123
122
112
112
103
145
134
134
112
112
108
305
303
306
116
106
97
July
August
September
150
149
151
191
183
183
148
146
147
144
131
145
90
83
74
118
113
101
94
82
74
135
125
106
103
104
99
295
270
261
90
88
76
October
November
December
149
148
142
180
175
169
145
142
137
138
130
124
76
78
73
101
97
93
71
65
58
114
113
117
96
97
101
239
245
255
74
79
72
January
February
March
140
142
144
162
160
160
137
138
137
129
132
126
79
87
91
103
112
109
69
99
109
177
134
144
105
112
120
250
271
284
71
79
82
April
May
June
136
141
138
165
166
169
135
133
135
128
120
127
92
98
101
112
115
116
115
126
127
155
142
139
124
119
114
290
298
297
78
77
73
132
140
(NA)
173
pl70
(NA)
rl32
pl28
(NA)
101
93
92
118
pill
119
115
128
144
150
pl45
117
120
116
293
280
271
66
64
64
QA
T»Ti"I 0 7
rP132
r P 144
pl48
119
rp287
p295
p6l
pl24
1975
July
August
September
P 135
(NA)
October
November
December
yo
p98
115
plO7
pl41
P 63
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except thoseseries that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 67 and 68.
•"Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
104
NOVEMBER 1975
ItCII
APPENDIXES
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States:
1854 to 1970
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
Business cycle reference dates
Trough
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
T2
30
22
46
18
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
36
99
(X)
40
54
50
52
101
March 1887 . . .
July 1890
January 1893 . .
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902
65
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
21
20
18
24
21
74
35
31
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914 ..March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910 . .
January 1913 . .
August 1918 . . .
January 1920 . .
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926 . .
August 1929 . . .
May 1937
February 1945 .
November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43
13
21
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
41
34
93
93
45
56
May 1954
April 1958
February 1961
November 1970
August 1957 . . .
April 1960 . . . .
December 1969
10
8
10
11
39
24
106
(X)
47
34
117
Average, all cycles:
27 cycles, 1854-1970
11 cycles, 1919-1970
5 cycles, 1945-1970 .
19
14
10
33
42
50
52
56
60
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961 .
8 cycles, 1919-1961 . .
3 cycles, 1945-1961 . .
20
16
10
26
29
33
46
45
43
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October 1860 . .
April 1865 . . . .
June 1869
October 1873 . .
March 1882 . . .
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
(X)
18
8
32
3.
11
49
32
116
(X)
2
60
60
3
5
6
48
42
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and I , Korean War, and Vietnam War), the postwar contractions,
and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
^ c y c l e s , 1857-1969.
10 cycles, 1920-1969.
2
3
4
5 cycles, 1945-1969.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
5
6
7 cycles, 1920-19R0.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
105
G.
E x p e r i m e n t a l Data and Analyses
Selected Components of New Composite Index of Leading Indicators
(NOV.) (OCT.)
(JULYMMAY)
P
(DEC.) (NOV.)
T
P
mm
T
in i M in in MI
X213. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 1967 dollars (bil. dol.)
tOD. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment,
1967 dollars (bil. dol.
X170D. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1967 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bil. dol.
X201. Percent change in sensitive prices, WPI crude materials excluding foods and feeds, smoothed1 (percent)
X108. Money balance (Ml), 1967 dollars (bil. dol
X136. Percent change in total liquid assets, smoothed
1947 194S 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 i960 19A1 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
NOTE: Current data for these series are shown on page 107. The new leading index is shown on pages 37 and 83.
^Series is a weighted ^.-terrn moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.
106
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Current Data for Selected Components of New Leading Index
X213. New
orders, consumer
goods and
materials, 1967
dollars
10D. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment, 1967
dollars
Year
and
month
(Mil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
X136. Percent
change in
total liquid
X108. Money
balance (M1),
1967 dollars2
X201. Percent
change in
sensitive prices,
WPI crude
materials excluding foods
and feeds,
smoothed1
X170D. Net
change in
inventories on
hand and on
order, 1967
dollars,
smoothed1
smoothed1
(Bil.dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
1973
January
February
March
29,135
29,833
30,085
9.13
9.06
9.37
10.70
10.84
11.32
1.12
0.95
0.90
200.8
200.4
198.8
>
1.07
0.99
April
May
June
29,806
30,401
30,022
9.11
9.40
10.03
11.51
13.25
17.44
.16
.59
.08
198.4
199.5
200.6
0.99
1.06
1.10
July
August
September..,
29,694
29,801
29,229
10.08
9.75
9.70
H)21.33
19.97
16.81
2.16
1.85
1.90
200.5
197.0
196.3
1.06
0.98
0.89
October
November . . .
December . . .
30,134
29,608
28,750
D10.62
10.42
16.38
17.79
18.97
2.36
3.27
3.88
195.3
195.8
196.0
0.79
0.71
0.72
10.02
9.76
9.72
13.47
6.35
0.65
4.06
4.42
4.94
193.4
192.8
192.4
0.82
0.89
0.88
9.95
1974
January
February
March
28,034
28,025
E>30,931
,
,
28,192
28,970
28,579
10.14
10.39
-2.77
-2.70
0.30
H)5.46
4.02
1.61
192.1
190.8
190.7
0.90
0.92
0.90
July
August
,
September..
28,351
28,334
27,096
10.40
9.15
9.25
0.95
1.70
2.26
189.4
187.3
185.3
0.82
0.67
0.52
October
November . .
December . .
25,854
24,356
21,569
8.36
7.86
8.42
2.05
-3.26
-10.85
-13.75
-13.38
-13.78
1.29
0.18
-0.53
184.2
183.8
182.9
0.44
0.46
0.48
January
February
March
20,655
21,152
20,831
7.13
7.06
7.00
r-11.71
r-18.34
r-25.60
-1.39
-1.70
-1.28
180.0
179.5
180.6
0.48
0.51
0.60
April
May
June
22,536
22,777
23,114
7.83
7.80
7.42
r-28.13
r-24.81
r-21.50
-0.41
0.45
0.99
180.1
181.1
182.6
0.68
0.73
0.86
24,285
24,931
r24,933
7.60
r8.22
r7.14
r-18.50
r-11.38
p-4.26
180.8
180.9
rl80.4
0.98
rO.91
r0.70
p25,171
p7.26
(NA)
0.84
0.42
r0.71
1.11
pl78.8
pO.54
April
May
June
9.80
1975
July
August
,
September..
October
November . . ,
December . . ,
NOTE:
leading
Current
1
Series
2
Series
I
Graphs of these series are shown on page 106. Historical data were shown in the May 1975 BCD
indexes are shown on pages 37 and 83, The old leading index is shown on page 108. Series are
high values are indicated by [H). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated;
is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the
X108 reached its current high value (200.9) in December 1972,
(pages xx-xxii). The new
seasonally adjusted.
and "NA", not available.
span.
107
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Old Composite Index of Leading Indicators
(NOV.) (OCT.)
(JULY)(MAY>
P
III m
(AUG.) (APR.)
T
P
(APR.)(FEB.)
T
P
III I I I I I I I T T I I I I I I I I I 1 1 1 T i l I I I
(DEC.) (NOV.)
T
P
T
T T T T T T T T T III III 111 III II1 i n
III III TTTTTT TTT
Index: 1967=100
Old Indexes of 12 Leading Indicators
(series 1. 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17.
19, 23, 29, 31, 113)
810.
Ratio
Scale
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
Reverse trend adjusted1
70
r4
140
130
120
110
100
90
~x
Wx/
811.
Prior to trend adjustment
"S
\s
70
111 iJii 111111111111 h \ul\ 111111111111 til 1111111 \iii\ 1111111111111111111111111111111111 i n 111111111111111111111
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
Series 810:
Series 811:
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
197319741975-
155.9
167.8
153.2
158.8
170.2
153.4
161.3
172.3
152.5
159.7
173.0
157.6
162.9
175.6
159.5
164.3
176.0
rl64.5
165.6
H>179.6
rl69.9
167.3
177.9
rl71.9
165.1
172.2
174.0
166.8
168.3
a
175.4
168.1
162.8
165.6
159.3
197319741975-
121.5
125.1
109.1
123.3
126.3
108.9
124.8
127.5
107.8
123.1
127.4
111.0
125.1
128.9
111.9
125.7
128.7
rll5.0
126.2
©130.8
rll8.4
127.0
129.2
rll9.3
124.9
124.5
120.3
125.7
121.3
120.8
126.2
116.9
123.9
113.9
June
July
2
Current high values are indicated by |H); "r" indicates revised.
1 Reverse trend adjusted index contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators (series 820).
2
Excludes series 16, 31, and 113 for which data are not yet available.
108
@FedFRASER