Full text of Business Conditions Digest : November 1972
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NOVEMBER 1972
DATA THROUGH
UNITED STATES
PARTMENT OF
OMMERCE
JBHCATION
\
U.S. DEPARTMENT
OF COMMERCE
Social and Economic
Statistics Administration
BUREAU OF
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
OCTOBER
BUSINESS
CONDITIONS
DIGEST
This report was prepared in the Statistical Indicators
Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication
areMorton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of
basic data. (Telephone 301-763-5448)
Editorial assistance is provided by Maureen Padgett of
the Publications Services Division, Social and
Economic Statistics Administration.
The cooperation of various government and private
agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing data are indicated in
the list of series and sources at the back of this
report.
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Peter G. Peterson, Secretary
James T. Lynn, Under Secretary
Harold C. Passer, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs
and Administrator,
This publication is prepared under the general
guidance of a technical committee established by the
Office of Management and Budget. The committee
consists of the following persons:
Social and Economic Statistics Administration
Julius Shiskin, Chairman
Office of Management and Budget
Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisors,
Executive Office of the President
George Hay Brown, Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce
George Jaszi, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce
Geoffrey H. Moore, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Department of Labor
Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
personal, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or /aggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Morris R. Goldman, Deputy Director
Feliks Tamm, Editor
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
Subscription price, including supplements, is $15 a year ($3.75 additional for foreign mailing).
Single issues are $1.50.
Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge.
For
information about domestic or foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of
This monthly report brings together many of the economic
time series found most useful by business analysts and
forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments,
emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of
business conditions and was based largely on the list of
leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Some other approaches commonly used by students of
economic conditions include econometric models and
anticipations and intentions data. The econometric model
concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships
among consumption, private investment, government, and
various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of
businessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of the
content of Business Cycle Developments has been retained in
this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of
other approaches have been added to make it more generally
useful to those concerned with an evaluation of current
business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section
of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not to
be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis or any other government agency of any
particular approach to economic analysis. This report is
intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report have
been published by their source agencies. A series finding
guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and data
sources, is shown at the back of this report.
Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address label.
Make checks payaoi
to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington
D.C. 20402.
IN: »
New Features and Changes for This Issue
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons
How to Read Charts
How to Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
NOVEMBER 1972
Data Through October
Series ESI No. 72-11
PART I.
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
I nventories and I nventory I nvestment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
B8
Composite I ndexes
NBER Short List
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
43
46
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
fm]
D2
D3
D4
D5
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
48
49
54
56
58
60
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
20
23
25
28
30
33
Selected Indicators by Timing
B7
1
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
5
CHARTS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A3
iii
37
39
Actual and Potential Gross National Product
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Rates of Change
61
62
63
65
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
66
67
68
PART II. TABLES
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Gross National Product
69
National and Personal Income
69
Personal Consumption Expenditures
70
Gross Private Domestic Investment
70
Foreign Trade
71
Government Purchases of Goods and Services . . 71
Final Sales and Inventories
71
National Income Components
71
Saving
72
Real Gross National Product
72
Shares of GNP and National Income
73
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
84
85
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components
D3
D4
D5
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
D6
87
89
90
92
94
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade . .
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
74
76
77
78
79
81
Selected Indicators by Timing
B7
Composite Indexes
83
E1
E2
E3
E4
|
I
|
|
Actual and Potential GNP
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
95
96
97
99
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
103
103
104
PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See July 1972issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. H istorical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970 (See Sept. 1972 issue)
F. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators (See September 1972issue)
G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected H istorical Patterns
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series
105
108
109
115
116
119
122
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
langes in this issue are as follows:
1. The series on factory labor turnover (series 2 and 3) and
lumber of job vacancies in manufacturing (series 50) have been
•evised to reflect the source agency's annual updating of the
)enchmark and seasonal adjustment of establishment employment
statistics.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained
^rom the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
iLvision of Industry and Bnployment Statistics.
2. The series on consumer installment credit (series 66 and
.13) have been revised for the period 1965 to date. These
*evisions incorporate the source agency1s adjustment of
sample-based estimates to reflect recent benchmarks and
computation of new seasonal factors. Additional information
concerning these revisions may be obtained from the Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve SSystem, Division of Research
md Statistics, Mortgage, Agricultural, and Consumer Finance
Section.
3« Appendix C includes historical data for series 6, 20, 29,
Jl, 50, 56, 65, 71, 250, 252, 253, 515, 517, 519, 521, 522, 536
537, 540-547, and 851.
4- Appendix D contains descriptions for series 39, 939 72,
ind 112.
5. Appendix G contains recovery comparisons charts for series
V3, 47, 85, 114, 115, 74L, 78lc, and 858.
Che December issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
release on December 29•
ill
A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc
4 SESA PROJECTS on economic fluctuations
BUSINESS
DIGEST
CONDITIONS
DEFENSE INDICATORS
LONG TERM
ECONOMIC GROWTH
COMPUTER PROGRAMS
FOR TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
A monthly report for
analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short
span of years.
This report brings together
approximately 600 monthly
and quarterly economic time
series in a form which is
convenient for analysts
whether their approach to
the study of current business
conditions and prospects is
the national income model,
the leading indicators,
anticipations and intentions,
or a combination of these.
Other types of data such as
foreign trade, Federal government activities, and international comparisons of consumer prices, stock prices,
and industrial production are
included to facilitate a more
complete analysis.
Data are presented in charts
and tables, and appendixes
are included which provide
historical data, series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of
variability. Also, a computer
tape containing data for
most of the series in the
report is available for purchase.
A report for the study of
economic fluctuations
over a long span of years,
1860-1965.
A monthly report for
analyzing the current and
prospective impact of
defense activity on the
national economy.
This report has been
developed from available
statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view
of the U.S. economy. It has
been planned, prepared, and
published as a basic research
document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers,
and students. It brings
together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the
complete statistical basis for
a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique
presentation of the full range
of factors required for an
understanding of our
country's economic development. Some of the statistical
series go back to 1860. A
computer tape file of the time
series included in the report
is available for purchase.
This report brings together
the principal time series on
defense activities which
influence short-term changes
in the national economy.
These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders,
shipments, inventories,
expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 50 time series included
are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the
activities they measure occur
in the defense order-production-delivery process. Most
are monthly series, although
a few are quarterly. This
publication provides original
and seasonally adjusted basic
data in monthly, quarterly,
and annual form. Charts and
analytical tables are included
to facilitate interpretation.
IV
The source statements for
FORTRAN IV programs which
are used by the Bureau in
its analysis of time series
are available from the Bureau
on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
PROGRAMS.—Two variants
of the Census computer
program for measuring and
analyzing seasonal, tradingday, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations and the relations
among them. They are particularly useful in analyzing
economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The
X-ll variant is used for
adjusting monthly data and the
X-11Q for quarterly data.
These programs can make additive as well as multiplicative
adjustments and compute
many summary and analytical
measures of the behavior
of each series.
DIFFUSION INDEX
PROGRAM.—A computer
program for computing diffusion indexes, cumulated
diffusion indexes, and
summary measures of the
properties of each index.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
National Income and Product
Cyclical indicators
Anticipations and intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons
Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part IS (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 1950 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, most
charts contain shading which indicates
periods of recession in general business
activity.
in addition to the charts and tables described above, some issues contain a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD
moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis ( B E A ) summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Personal consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports.
Exports include receipts from domestic
output sold abroad, transportation, travel,
other services, fees and royalties and income on investments in foreign areas.
Imports include purchases of foreign
goods, payments for transportation, travel
and other services, military expenditures
as well as payments of income on foreign
investments in the United States. More
detail on U.S. balance of payments is provided in Section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an
accounting period. It is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
SECTION B
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses tha same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 78 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that
of
the
coincident index. This facilitates
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
1. EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
( 5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(40 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT Comprehensive
employment
INDICATORS
(3 series)
(26 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(12 series)
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(9 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
IV. INVENTORIES
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
Comprehensive
Backlog of investment
production
commitments
(3 series)
(2 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (4 series)
Investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(14 series)
VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(18 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (5 series)
Cash flows (2 series)
Flows of money
and credit
(7 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)
Unit labor costs
(3 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans
and mortgages
(2 series)
comparisons among the leading, coincident,
and lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations Cwhat they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D
OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com
prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
Because these data are influenced by
foreign as well as domestic conditions,
the cyclical shading has been omitted
from the balance-of-payments charts.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures
and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and
product accounts, but are not shown in
section A of this report. The defense series
included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of
defense activities, see Defense Indicators,
a monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis
publication.
The price movements series consist of
consumer and wholesale price indexes and
their major components. Additional data
on prices and costs are shown in several
other sections.
SECTION E
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected
group of economic series. Percent changes
are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or
for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F
Ufc. INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER.
Basic Data
(May) (Feb.)
P I
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
20 -ixxxmonth for which data are plotted.
("6" = June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points in
dicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted P/a, 2,
or 2l/2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE in the
back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles,
or
2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES where series are listed in
numerical order according to series numbers within each of the
Digest's six sections.
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
Average
1969
1970
1971
OH n
2u
v
1971
Percent change
3dQ
4th Q
1971
1971
IstQ
1972
2dQ
3dQ
1972
1972
4th Q
to
IstQ
IstQ
to
2dQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
1972
1972
1972
.ii
=
%
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al. Gross National Product
200.
205.
210.
215.
217.
Ann.rate,bil.doi.
do
1958=100
Ann. rate, dol...
do
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars.
Implicit price deflator .
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
Ann.rate,bil.dol.
National income, current dollars
do .. . .
Personal income current dollars
do
Disposable personal income, current dol . . .
. . do
Disposable personal income 1958 dol •
Per capita disposable personal income,
Ann. rate, dol.. .
current dollars
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
do
1958 dollars
220.
222.
224.
225
226.
930.3
725.6
128.2
4i588
3»579
976.4 1050.4 1043.0 1056,9 1078.1 1109.1 1139.4 1164.0
737.9 742.5 754.5 766.5 783-9 796.1
722.1 741.7
141.3
142.4
145.3
141.6
142.9
135.2
144.7
146.2
4»765 5»072 5t043 5 1 098 5»187 5 ? 326 5»461 5 1 568
3»524 3»582 3»568 3 1 582 3»630 3 t 6 8 1 3»757 3i808
2.9
1.6
1.3
2.7
1.4
2.7
2.3
0.4
2.5
2.1
2.2
1.6
0.6
2.0
1.4
200
205
210
215
217
861.4
851.4
858.1
744.4
554.7
742.9
554.6
860.8
867.9
750.4
556.5
876.2
881.5
758.5
560.9
903.1
907.0
770.5
565.7
922.1
922-1
782.6
571.4
943.1
939.9
798.8
579.6
3.1
2.9
1*6
0.9
2.1
1.7
1,6
1.0
2.3
1.9
2.1
1.4
220
222
224
225
513.6
798.6
806.3
689.5
533.2
3tl30
3?366
3t595
3f592
3t620
3»649
3»700
3»751
3»821
1.4
1.4
1.9
226
2*534
2»603
2»679
2f682
2t684
2t698
2»716
2«739
2i773
0.7
0.8
1.2
227
579.5
664.9
495.4
660.4
493.0
103.5
68.1
35.4
278.1
101.9
67.6
34.3
277.2
283.3
281.3
670.7
497.4
106,1
69,0
37.1
278,5
286.1
680.5
503.2
106.1
70.2
35.9
283.4
290.9
696.1
511.0
111.0
74.1
36.9
288.3
296.7
713.4
520-9
113i9
75.7
38.2
297.2
302.4
728.6
528.7
118.6
77.0
41.6
302.0
308.0
2.3
1.6
4.6
5.6
2.8
1.7
2.0
2.5
1.9
2.6
2.2
3.5
3.1
1.9
2.1
1.5
4.1
1.7
8,9
1.6
1.9
230
231
232
233
234
236
237
168.1
116.1
41,3
74,8
51,6
0,4
177.0
119.2
42iO
77.2
52.8
5.0
183.2
120.7
41.8
79.0
54,4
8,0
5.9
5.7
6.4
5.4
9.1
-1.3
5.3
2.7
1.7
3.2
2.3
4.6
3.5
1.3
-0.5
2.3
3.0
3.0
240
241
242
243
244
245
766.0
750.9
634.4
855.7
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230.
231.
232.
233.
234.
236
237.
Ann.rate,bil.dol .
do
do
do
do ...
. do
do
245.9
242.7
616.8
477.0
90.5
62.5
28.0
264.4
261.8
Gross private domestic investment, total. . . Ann.rate.bil.dol .
do
Fixed investment, total nonresidential ....
do .
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures.
do
Fixed investment producers' dur. equip.
do . ...
Fixed investment residential structures. ..
do
Change in business inventories total"*
139.0
98.5
34.2
64,3
32.6
7.8
137.1
100.9
36.0
64.9
31.2
4.9
152.0
105.8
38.4
67.4
42.6
3.6
153.0
105.0
38.3
66.7
41.4
6.6
152.2
106.3
38.7
67.6
44.5
1.3
158.8
109.8
38.8
71.0
47.3
1.7
1.9
55.5
53.6
3.6
62.9
59.3
,7
66.1
65.4
0.1
66.7
66.6
0.4
68.5
68.2
-2.1
63.0
65.1
-4.6
70.7
75.3
-5.2
7Q.O
75-2
-3.4
74.4
77.8
-2.5
12*2
15.7
-0.6
-1.0
-0.1
1.8
6.3
3.5
250
252
253
Total, current dollars
Total 1958 dollars . . .
Durable goods, current dollars
Durable goods exc. autos, current dollars
Automobiles, current dollars
Nondurable goods current dollars.
Services, current dollars
469.1
90.8
59.1
31,7
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240.
241.
242.
243
244
245
A5. Foreign Trade
250. Net exports of goods and services2.
252. Exports
..
253. Imports
.
.
Ann.rate,bil.dol .
. . . do
do
A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260.
262.
264.
266.
Total
Federal
National defense
State and local
Ann. rate, bil.do! .
do
. do
do
210.0
98.8
78.4
111.2
219.0
96*5
75.1
122.5
232,8
229.5
97,8
71.4
135.0
96.3
71.2
133.3
233.6
97.9
70.1
135.7
240.9
100.7
71.9
140.2
249.4
105.7
76.7
143.7
254.1
108.1
78.6
146.0
255.6
105.4
75.1
150.2
3.5
5.0
6.7
2.5
1.9
2.3
2.5
1.6
0.6
-2.5
-4.5
2.9
260
262
264
266
Ann. rate, bil.dol •
182.3
183.0
194.6
191.0
197.7
200.1
208.8
214.6
220.7
4.3
2.8
2.8
270
5.0
1.9
284.0
1.1
3.6
267.4
297.3
294.8
-1.0
298.5
-1.9
303.0
0.4
308.4
3.0
317.5
5.4
321.7
2.3
1.8
2.6
3.0
2,4
1.3
271
274
2.8
3.0
2.5
3.1
2.3
3.5
0.0
2.1
2.6
2.1
0.5
275
566.0
603.8
66.8
23.3
69.9
34.8
644.1
70.0
24.5
78.6
38.5
639.6
67.2
22.6
79.8
30.5
69.3
24.4
80.1
38.1
648.0
70,7
24,8
78.3
39,1
660.4
71.8
25.0
79.4
39.7
682.7
73.3
25.2
81.8
40.1
697.8
73.2
24.2
86.1
40«9
710.2
75.3
26.2
89.7
41.7
3.4
2.1
0*8
3.0
1.0
2.2
-0.1
-4.0
5.3
2.0
1.8
2.9
8.3
4.2
2.0
280
282
284
286
288
143.9
38.2
142.1
54.9
153.9
60.9
154.8
64.1
154,6
61,0
157.8
59.3
163.9
55.7
168.0
50-1
173.7
50.8
3.9
-6.1
2.5
-10.1
3.4
1.4
290
292
11.0
86.3
-10.1
15.8
93.8
-16.9
16.0
92.4
-18.0
15.2
95.0
-16.9
18.8
97.4
-18.7
17.0
99.7
-7.7
19.8
105-3
-6-9
21.1
104.1
-2.2
-9.6
2.4
11.0
16.5
5.6
0.8
6.6
-1.1
4.7
294
296
298
718.0
4.1
77.6
22.3
28.4
739.1
2.6
76.8
29.1
36.4
732.6
741.7
0.7
76.4
30.1
37.8
753.8
0.7
79.2
32.1
35.8
766.3
0.3
82.2
34.2
35.6
78Q«0
3.9
83.6
34.4
37.0
789.8
6.2
84.2
35.1
40.6
1.7
-0*4
3.8
6.5
-0.6
1.8
3.6
1.7
0.6
3.9
1.3
2.3
0.7
2.0
9.7
273
246
247
248
249
139.0
137.6
135.7
137.6
141.1
142.2
143.9
142.6
0.8
1.2
36.2
49.2
48.8
52.6
49.0
45.5
36-7
33.2
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
270. Final sales durable goods
271. Change in business inventories^ durable
goods2
274. Final sales, nondurable goods
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods
do .
do
do
-3.5
A8. National Income Components
280.
282.
284.
286.
288.
Compensation of employees
Ann. rate, bil.dol .
do
Proprietors' income
do.
Rental income of persons
do
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj . .
do
Net interest
A9. Saving
290 Gross saving total .
292. Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit, total 2
Ann.rate,bil.dol .
do
do
do .
do
.
15.4
81.6
8.8
A10. Real GNP (1958 dollars)
273.
246.
247.
248.
249
261.
Final sales, 1958 dollars.
. . .
Change in bus. inventories, 1958 dollars 2 .
Fixed invest., nonresidential, 1958 dollars.
Fixed invest., residential struc., 1958 dol .
Gross auto product 1958 dollars
Govt. purchases of goods and services,
total 1958 dollars.
Ann. rate, bil.dol • 718.9
do
6.7
do
80.1
do
23.7
. . . . do • ' • 35.0
£JQ
145.9
5.3
76.4
28.3
34.8
-0.9
261
-3.5
207
El. Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP gap (potential less actual), 1958 dol.2
Ann. rate, bil.dol .
2.3
-3.5
-8.8
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
Percent change
Average
1970
Aug.
1971
IstQ
1972
2dQ
1972
3dQ
1972
Aug.
1972
Sept.
1972
to
Sept.
Oct.
1972
1972
Sept.
to
Oct.
1972
IstO
to
2dQ
1972
2dQ
to
3dQ
1972
Series number 1
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Composite Indexes
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj.3.
820 5 coincident indicators
830 6 lagging indicators
1967=100
do
do
do
115.0
120.3
113.8
130.9
126.2
124.0
114.8
125.0
135.9
130.8
120.0
125.9
141.3
134.5
123.1
127.7
145.4
137.8
125.8
130.5
147.0
138.0
126.3
130.4
146.7
139.1
126.6
131.9
147-6
141-1
128*6
132.8
-0.2
0.8
0.2
1.2
0.6
1.4
1*6
0.7
4.0
2.8
2.6
1.4
2.9
2.5
2.2
2.2
810
820
825
830
93.2
106.5
103.2
94.1
98.4
93.9
112.3
102.1
100.2
105.4
97.8
116.1
104.1
103.7
110.4
98.5
118.4
107.1
105.6
112.7
99.6
119.6
108.2
107.4
117.2
100.3
119.4
109.1
108.2
121.6
100.1
120.6
109.8
107.6
117.5
NA
120.7
110*8
107.4
NA
-0.2
1.0
0.6
-0.6
-3.4
NA
0*1
0.9
-0.2
NA
0.7
2.0
2.9
1.8
2.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.7
4.0
813
814
815
816
817
39.8
39.9
40.3
40.7
40.6
40.6
40.7
40.7
0.2
o.o
1.0
0,1
-0.4
-0.1
NA
0.3
-0.1
0.1
0.1
21
2
LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS
do
do
do
do
do
816 Profitability
.....
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. • •
21. Avg. weekly overtime hours, production
Hours
-0.2
1
do
Per 100 employ..
3.0
4.0
2.9
3.9
3.1
4.4
3.4
4.3
3.5
4.4
3.5
4.7
3.6
4.3
3.5
NA
Per 100 employ. .
296
1.8
292
1*6
259
1.2
271
1.2
249
1.1
233
1.0
250
1.0
256
NA
-7.3
0.0
-2.4
NA
-4.6
0.0
8.1
0.1
5
3
132
92
89
80
105
87
121
94
133
103
130
106
138
99
NA
NA
6,2
-6.6
NA
NA
15.2
8.0
9.9
9.6
50
46
Ann. rate, billion
man-hours
138.05 137.72 40.30 142.12 142.89 142.66 143.72 144,36
Thousands ..... 70*597 70*646 7li769 72t5l2 72 » 959 72*984 73*232 73*535
do
75»180 75 f 725 77 » 423 78 iQ84 78*411 78*348 78*647 78*822
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities. . .
0.7
0.3
0.4
0*4
0.4
0*2
1.3
1.0
0.9
0.5
0.6
0.4
48
41
42
0.1
o.o
0.0
0.3
43
0.2
45
*5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted4) ••
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted4) 2. •
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Job Vacancies:
Thousands
967-100
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural
establishments.
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted i2 • . . Percent
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment
rate CinvprfprK^ 2
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(inverted4)2
5,5
5.5
5.0
6.0
5.8
do
3.5
4.1
3.4
do
2.6
3.2
2.9
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.8
2-8
do
0.8
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.4
1.3
1-3
5.8
5.5
5.6
-0.2
-0.1
0-1
-0.2
o.o
0.0
0.2
40
o.o
0.1
0.0
44
2.2
1.6
1.6
200
205
47
LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and
0.1
B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production:
*200. GNP in current dollars
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production
Comprehensive Income:
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr ..
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales
*54. Sales of retail stores
Ann.rate, bil.dol..
do
1967=100
976.4 1050.4 1109.1 1139.4 1164.0
766.5 783.9 796.1
722.1 741.7
110.0
106.8
113.1 114.9
106.7
115.0
115.7
116.7
0.6
0.9
2.7
2.3
2.8
Ann. rate, bil.dol..
do
806.3
197,5
939.9
221.6
940.0
221.7
946.8
224.2
962.0
226.5
0.7
1.1
1.6
1.0
1.7
2.3
1.9
1*2
52
53
NA
2*8
2.7
2.7
2.3
3.4
2.8
2.6
1.9
2.5
1.4
56
57
54
59
861.4
202.5
907.0
213.9
922.1
218.9
NA
Bit dot
104.42 111.92 119.06 122.26 125.46 126.46 126.55
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
971.5 1046.7 1108.6
37*683
38*750
37*665
37*969
36*753
34
t
026
35
i
560
Mil. dol. . ...... 3li260
27 f 553 28 t 975 29f748 30 t 568 3lt008 31*302 30*862 31*710
0.1
-0.8
-1.4
B3. Fixed Capital Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
1967=100
*12. Index of net business formation
13 New business incorporations. • • • • • • • Number
. .
NA
NA
0,0
0.7
NA
NA
2.6
2.9
-0.3
1.6
12
13
36.85
187
11.44
36.63
171
11.97
3.1
3.9
8.6
-0.6
-8.6
4.6
5.7
1.2
10.6
6.1
8.7
3.0
7.4
2.8
2.0
2.9
6
8
10
11
24
117.5
117.5
117.7
115.1
118.1
108.1 111.2
22 f 009 24*001 25 f 609 26 t 348 26*767 26*612 26*795
New Investment Commitments:
Bil.dol
27.19
*6. New orders, durable goods industries
126
8 Construction contracts total value • • • « » 1967~100
8.33
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment. . .Bil.dol
do
6.34
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing
do
6.8
24. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondefense
Mil.
sq.
feet
9. Construction contracts, commercial
floor space . . . 63.80
and industrial buildings.
28. New private housing units started, total . .Ann. rate, thous. . It 44
1967=100
118.
*29. New bldg. permits, private housing.
29.81
146
8.90
5.76
7.39
32.78
160
9.56
6.57
8.30
34.64
162
10.57
6.97
9.02
35.67
174
10.87
7.11
9.28
35.73
180
10.53
9.2
9.52
9.74
3.4
2.3
61.19
2f051
167.9
64.35
2i513
183.1
72.66
2*263
177.2
72.69
2*356
193.1
75.65
2*484
196.
74.69
2*366
198.5
74.61
2*410
194.4
-1.3
-4.8
1.2
-0.1
1.9
-2.1
12.9
-9.9
-3.2
o.o
4.1
9.0
9
28
29
69.90
19.06
71.56
19.66
75.06
20.57
78.51
21.42
76.6
78.51
79.30
2.4
1.0
4.9
4,6
4.6
4.1
96
97
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries5 Bil. dol., EOP...
do
71.3
20.9
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
Basic data1
1970
Percent change
Sept.
to
Aug.
Average
1971
IstQ
2dQ
3dQ
1972
1972
1972
Sept.
Aug.
1972
1972
to
Sept.
Oct.
1972
Oct.
1972
1972
IstQ
to
2dQ
1972
Series number
Series title
Unit
of
measure
2dQ
to
3.dQ
1972
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B3. Fix«d Capital Investment—Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
*61. Business expend., new plant and equip.. . Ann.rate, bil.dol. . 79.74 81.22 86.79 87.12 a90.38
69. Machinery and equipment sales and
103.91 107.00 117.99 122.52 123.43 124.68 123.92
business construction expenditures. . . .. . do
0.4
3.7
61
NA
-0.6
NA
3.8
0.7
69
NA
-3.6
NA
4.6
3.0
3.0
4.1
245
31
8
-1
3
37
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in bus. inventories, all indus.2 . .Ann. rate, bil.dol. .
*31. Change, mfg. and trade, inven., bk. val.2.
do
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Percent
20. Change in mfrs.' inventories of materials,
supplies, book value 2
Ann.rate,bil.dol. .
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer 2 ® . . . Percent
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
do...
slower deliveries 2 ®
25. Chg. in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus.2 Bil.dol
4.9
8.2
3.6
7.9
46
50
0.8
0.4
55
54
51
-0.92
48
-0.12
0.4
5.7
51
-0.9
55
54
0.55
5.0
8.7
8.0
12.8
18.3
14.7
50
53
56
59
67
0.0
3.0
4.0
0.0
NA
54
56
57
56
64
59
1.17
64
1.15
63
1.02
65
1.82
3
NA
0.9
3.0
20
-1
8
-1
2
26
2
8
-1.03
5
5
-0.02
32
25
-4.0
73
0.79
0.80
0.62
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
*71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value5. . Bil.dol., EOP... 174.94 182.84 184.26 186.44 189.63 188.41 189.63
do
65. Mfrs.' inven. of finished goods, bk. val.5.
35.01 35.10
34.22 34.67
35.18 35.30 35.18
NA
NA
0.6
-0.3
NA
NA
1.2
1.3
1.7
1.5
71
65
2*6
7.8
1.6
23
0.2
2.6
1.0
19
4.0
3.4
4.3
3.5
16
18
0.1
0.2
0.4
5.8
4.8
0.2
NA
1.0
2.5
1.8
22
U
17
34
35
0.7
0.9
55
55
58
-0.2
0.0
63
-0.1
0.0
0.2
68
62
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LfADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices®
1967=100
113.9
107.1
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks®
194H3-10
83.22
96.29 105.41 108.16 109.20 111.01 109.39 109.56
Profits and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits, after taxes, curr. dol. .
18. Corporate profits, after taxes, 1958 dol. .
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate all industries2
15. Profits(after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.2
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
34. Net cash flow, corp., curr. dol
35. Net cash flow corp. 1958 dol
113.6
122.5
124.4
124.6
124.8
128.1
Ann.rate.bil.dol. .
do
40.2
31.0
Percent
Cents
1967=100
Ann.rate.bil.dol. .
do
96.8
70.5
54.2
97.5
80.8
58.6
97.8
88.2
62.4
98.2
93.3
65.4
99.2
95.6
66.6
99.5
99.4
99.2
110.0
0.3
110.2
114.0
0.2
113.8
116.4
0.4
116.3
117.6
0.4
117.4
118.4
0.3
118.5
118.5
0.4
118.5
118.7
0.2
118.8
118.8
8.4
4.0
45.9
33.8
9.0
4.1
49.5
35.7
9.0
4.1
51.5
36.9
9.1
4.3
0.2
-1.5
53.7
38.2
9.3
NA
-0.1
-0.2
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55, Wholesale prices, indus. commodities®. 1967=100
55c. Chg. in whsle. prices, indus. commod., S/A 2 Percent
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®. 1967=100
-0-1
118.8
0.2
-0.2
0.3
0.1
-0.3
o.o
1.0
0.0
0.9
-0.1
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
do
63. Unit labor cost, total private economy. . .
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
Dollars
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
1967=100
119.0
122.6
125.7
125.5
125.5
0.812
113.8
0.832
0.842
116.7
118.9
0.841
119.4
0.841
119.6
119.4
119.8
119-9
5.51
5.49
3.97
0.3
0.1
0.4
B6- Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
Ann.rate, percent,
85. Change in money supply (Ml)2
102. Change in money supply plus time
2
do
deposits at comm. banks (M2)
103. Change in money sup. plus time2 dep. at
do.
banks and nonbank inst. (M3)
Ann.rate,bil.dol. .
33 Change in mortgage debt2
do.
*113« Change in consumer installment debt2. . .
do
112. Change in business loans 2
... do..
110. Total private borrowing
5.33
6.08
9.23
5.29
8.40
7.84
10.60
13.11
8.52
9.23
8.00
8.43
7.51
19.69
12.53
36.24
4.74
0.20
8.98
1.65
15.29
38.07
13.19
10.74
49.56
14.83
11.53
52.88
16.09
1.68
9.39
10.69
58.09
19.72
13.88
10.44
50.50
15.43
15.37
1.39
88.97 130.45 139.95
-0.02
-1,52
8.13
0.43
-0.30
10.20
NA
NA
15.73
-0.25
-7.59
-4.29
-0,24
NA
NA
1.49
0.36
150.48 152-43
Credit Difficulties:
157.31 159.74 171.20 155.50 190.59 253.62 113.54 152.97
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.4)® Mil. dol
39'. Delinquency rate, install, loans (inv.4)2 5 Percent, EOP. . . . 1.87
1.68
NA
1.88
1.73
1.92
NA
1.92
3.11
85
-4.59
0.71
102
-4.55
11.49
0.79
3.32
1.26
7.71
-3.94
7.5
1.3
103
33
113
112
110
1.64
0.29
NA
-34.7
NA
9.2
-0.15
-22.6
-0.04
14
39
169
-11
85
238
93
55.2
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted4)2®
Money Market Interest Rates:
114 Treasury bill rate2 ®
U6 Corporate bond yields2®
115. Treasury bond yields22®
117. Municioal bond vields rtb
Mil. dol
Percent
do .
do
do
-616
-207
6.44
9.05
6.58
6.35
4.34
7.85
5.74
5.48
126
3.43
7.49
5.65
5.24
41
3.75
7.67
5.66
5.36
-197
-183
-352
-341
4.24
7.68
5.63
5.36
4.01
7.59
5.59
5.30
4.65
7.72
5.70
5.36
4.72
7.66
5.69
5.18
0.64
0.13
0.11
n.O6
0.07
-0.06
-0.01
0.32
0.18
0.01
-O. 1ft
n. 1 9
-0.03
114
116
115
O.On
1 17
0.49
0.01
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Con.
Basic data L
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
Average
1970
1971
IstQ
1972
2dQ
1972
3dQ
1972
Aug.
1972
Sept.
1972
Aug.
Oct.
1972
to
Sept.
1972
Sept.
to
Oct.
1972
IstQ
to
2dQ
1972
J3
2dQ
to
3.dQ
1972
<t>
GO
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS--Con.
B6. Money and Credit-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt5
*72. Com. and industrial loans outstanding
NA
Bil. dol., EOP... 99.55 108.53 111.83 115.54 119.56 118.28 119.56
Mil.dol
84t798 84 t 295 85t072 86 t 497 87 t 092 87tQ5l 88 t 332 89t643
Interest Rates. on Business Loans and Mortgages:
*6J. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans 2<§). . Percent
do
118 Mortgage yields residential^©
1.1
1.5
8.48
9.03
6.32
7.70
5.52
7.47
5.59
7.52
5*84
7.55
7.55
7.56
7.57
0.01
233
3t561
It 437
253
3t328
-161
3t634
It 453
246
3t795
-565
3t973
It451
301
4t473
-614
3t860
It 587
336
4t474
-506
4tl26
It 896
384
4t632
-463
4t202
2t036
416
4t664
-513
4tl58
It 947
367
4t671
-415
4t365
NA
NA
4t780
-50
-1.0
-4.4
-11.8
0.2
NA
1.5
3.3
1.7
3.5
0.7
66
72
0.01
0.07
0.05
0.25
0.03
67
118
98
5.0
NA
NA
2.3
-49
-2.8
9.4
11.6
0.0
108
6.9
19.5
14.3
3.5
500
502
506
508
512
-373
461
-361
NA
-278
NA
It 667
NA
868 - 2t284
2t406 • 3t8l9
250
515
517
519
521
522
10.0
2.3
-2.0
-4.5
NA
NA
-17,8
-5.3
600
601
602
264
616
621
648
625
0.7
0.9
0.2
1.4
211
781
781
750
D, OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trade
500.
502.
506.
508.
512.
Mil.dol
Merchandise trade balance 2
do
Exports excluding military aid
do
Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor vehicles
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery. . . 1957-59=100 ....
Mil.dol
General imports
250
515.
517.
519.
521.
522.
Mil dol
Balance on soods and services2
Bal. on goods, services, and remittances'2. .
do
2
do
Balance on current account
do
Balance on curr.acct. and long-term capital
do
Net liquidity balance2
2
do
Official reserve transactions balance . . .
D2. U.S. Balance of Payments
182 -Itl88
892
-201 -It563
523
-712 -2tl64
90
-765 -2t344 -3»584
-962 -5t502 -3tll5
-2t459 -7t442 -3t256
-It561 -It 100
-It 924
NA
NA
-2t442
-It9l7
NA
-2t247 -4 f 531
-850 -4t669
D3. Federal Government Activities
600 Federal surplus or deficit NIA2
601 Federal receipts NIA
602 Federal expenditures NIA
616.
621
648.
625.
-21.7
199.1
220.8
71.4
6t795
It 769
1.86
2t775
-14.8
221.4
236.3
76.7
7t610
2tl48
2.06
3t336
-21.6
224.9
246.5
78.6
6t769
It 450
2.14
2t930
-11.6
230.0
241.6
75.1
NA
NA
1.76
2t774
...
...
NA
NA
1.51
2*641
NA
NA
2.24
2t498
130.6
116.3
0.4
110.4
136.6
121.3
0.3
113.9
139.5
123.7
0.3
117.0
140.3
124.7
0.2
118.2
141.3
125.8
0.4
119.9
125.7
0.2
119.9
126.2
0.5
120.2
do
121.2
129.6
135.0
136.8
138.4
138.3
139.2
do
104.1
106.9
109.0
109.8
110.1
110.1
110.3
96.48
140.8
112.0
113.3
113.1
96.39
96.88
97,27
82t771 84tl29 85 t 852 86t388 86 t 792 86 t 860 87 t 049 87 t 276
78 t 642 79tll8 80 t 833 8lt422 81t959 8lt973 82 t 222 82t482
4 t l 2 9 StOll 5t018 4t966 4t833 4t887 4t827 4t794
Ann. rate,bil.dol.. -12.9
do
191.6
do
204.5
75.1
do
6?626
Mil.dol
Defense Dept. obligations, total
It
649
do
Defense Dept obligations procurement . .
1.79
Bil. aol
New orders, defense products
2t785
Mil.dol
Military contract awards in U.S
...
...
NA
NA
1.85
NA
NA
NA
48.3
-5.4
NA
NA
-17.4
NA
-6.8
1.6
4.3
2.5
-11.1
-32.5
3.9
-12.2
126-6
0-3
120.0
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
-0.2
-0.2
0.6
0.8
-0.1
1.0
140.2
0.7
0.7
1.3
1.2
740
110.8
0.2
0.5
0.7
0.3
741
0.5
0.4
0.9
1.2
0.5
1.5
1.3
0.3
1.4
0.5
1.0
1.6
859
745
746
770
858
0.2
0.3
1.2
0.3
0.3
0.7
0.6
0.7
1.0
0.5
0.7
2.7
841
842
843
.• .
D4. Price Movements
211.
781.
781c.
750.
Fixed wtd. price index, gross priv. product
Consumer prices, all items ®
Chg. in consumer prices, all items, S/A2 .
Wholesale prices, all commodities®
IQCO inn
1967=100
Percent
1967=100
D5. Wages and Productivity
740. Avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers in
741. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers
859. Real spendable avg. wkly. earnings,
nonacri orod or nonsupv workers* • « • . 1967 dol
745. Avg. hourly compensation, privatenonfarm iQfi? inn
do
746. Real avg. hourly comp., private nonfarm. .
do
770. Output per man-hour, total private economy
do
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
89.98
123.2
105.9
104.6
103.4
92.42
131.7
108.6
108.5
107.0
95.34
137.3
110.9
110.5
109.9
96.16
138.9
111.4
112.2
111.3
D6 Civilian Labor Force and Major
Components
842 Total civilian employment
Thousands
do
do
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2. Percent..
Ratio
851. Ratio, inven. to sales, mfg. and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs.'
do
853. Ratio, prod., bus. equip, to consumer goods 1967-100
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
Ratio
860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to
do
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing2©. .
78.3
1.64
75.0
1.60
75.3
1.55
77.4
1.52
78.0
1.50
1.49
1.50
NA
0.7
NA
2.1
-1.9
0.6
-1.3
850
851
2.98
91.8
2.70
83.6
2.53
83.7
2.50
83.6
2-56
84.0
2.54
84.1
2.57
84.2
NA
85.0
1.2
0,1
NA
1.0
-1.2
-0.1
2.4
0.5
852
853
0.080
0.082
0.072
0.064
0.064
-11.1
0.0
854
0.687
5.3
0.478
5.4
0.518
5.3
0.565
5.5
0.633
5,8
9.1
0.2
12.0
0.3
860
857
0.646
0.611
NA
-5.4
NA
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by © , which appear to contain no seasonal movement. *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list* of indicators.
NA = not available,
a = anticipated.
EOP = end of period.
S/A = seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis).
For complete series titles (including composition of composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources
of Series" in the back of BCD.
-"•For a few series,, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available,, annual figures are those
published by the source agencies; otherwise,, they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series) are averages of the data as shown in part II.
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
Index for the latest month excludes 12, 16, 31, and 113, for which data are not yet available.
^Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for month series) are the last figures for the period.
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
[chart AI~| GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
GO-, 1200-,
X
11001000900-
200. GNP in current dollars. 0 (aim, rate, bit, doll
800-
600-J
^s -**-"
ED
160 -.
150140-
m. Implicit price deflator, Q (index: 1958=100)
130-
_^*^
1206.05.5"
5.04.54.0-
215. Per capita GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, thous. dot.)
3.5-
3.04.0-
217. Per capita GNP in 1950 dollars,
3.5-
3.0-
2.5-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
ItCII
NOVEMBER
1972
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Section A
Chart A2
AN,^
! NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
220. National income, current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
222. Personal income, current dollars, Q
am. rate, bil. dol.)
224. Disposable personal income, current dollars, Q
arm. rate, bil. dol.)
225. Disposable personal income, 1958 dollars,
Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
226. Per capita disposable personal income, current dollars,
Q (ann. rate, thous^JioU
Per capita disposable personal income, 1958 dollars,
Q (ann. rate, thous. dol.)
1 5J
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
87
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 69 „
10
NOVEMBER
1972
ItCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A3
I PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Personal consumption expenditures-
232. Durable goods, total, current dollars, Q
233. Durable goods, total excluding automobiles,
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
ItCII NOVEMBER
1972
11
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
y^
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
^
J~r
III]
180160140-
_^v\ .^s/^^^^
**^
^*^
if$ss private domestic investment-
120mn-
240. Total, Q
241. Nonresidentiai fixed investment, total, Q
243. Producers' durable equipment, Q
245. Change in business inventories, Q
i960 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 70,
12
NOVEMBER 1972
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
FOREIGN TRADE
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
+10 T
+5-
0-
-5-
~10J
8070605040-
«
30-
2090-i
8070605040-
30-
20-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
NOVEMBER
1972
13
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
Annual rate, billion dollars current
Government purchases of goods and services-
260. Federal, State, and local governments, Q
262. Federal Government, Q
264. National defense, Q
266. State and local governments, Q
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
14
NOVEMBER 1972
Section A
Chart A7
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
271. Change in business inventories,
274. final sates, nondurable goods, 0
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods, Q
•'
"*
',"-
C7
*'*
8^
70
71
data for these series are shown on page 71,
NOVEMBER
1972
15
Section A
Chart A8
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate, bilfion dollars (current)
280. Compensation of employees, 0
282. Proprietors'income, Q
284. Rental income of persons, Q
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment, Q
~~
"
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
—-
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.
16
NOVEMBER 1972
BCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SAVING
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment, Q
298. Government surplus or deficit, Q
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1972
17
Section A
i Chart A10
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Uuiy)
P
(Aug.)
T
248. Change in business inventories, 1958 dollars, Q
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, 1958 dollars, Q
Fivprf inuoctmont rpcirtpntial ctmrtiirpc 1QRA rinllare H
249,6ross auto product, 1958 dollars, Q
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
80
61
62
63
64
85
S6
67
68
7
D
7:?
1072
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 70, and 72.
18
NOVEMBER 1972
!!€!»
Section A
Chart All
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Gross National Product Shares
ijuiy)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug)
I
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
70 n
230A. Persona! consumption expenditures as percent of GNP, Q
60-
50-
40-
30-
241A. Fixed investment nonresidential,
as percent of GNP, Q
262A. Federal Government purchases
of goods and services as percent of GNP, Q
266A. State and local government
purchases of goods ami services
as percent of GNP, Q
20-
10-
244A. Fixed investment, residential structures as percent of GNP, a
245A. Change in business inventories as percent of GNP, Q
250A. Net exports of goods and services
as percent of GNP, Q
National Income Shares
E31
Percent
80-,
280A. Compensation of employees as percent of national income, Q
70-
60-
50-
40-
<
282A. Proprietors' income as
percent of national income, Q
284A. Rental income of persons as percent of national income, Q
286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation
adjustment as percent of national income, Q
30-J
204
288A. Net interest as percent of national income, Q,
57
68
63
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
!!€!» NOVEMBER 1972
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
ccession rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70 71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
20
NOVEMBER 1972
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
50. Number of job vacancies, mfg. (thousands)
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 75.
BCII NOVEMBER
1972
21
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
P
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
T
P
T
Comprehensive Unemployment
43. Unemployment f3te, total (percent—Inverted scale]
45. Average weekly Insured unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale)
567-
40. Unemployment rate, married mates (percent-inverted scale)
2-
3456-J
Lagging Indicators
Long-Duration Unemployment
*44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
53
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
22
NOVEMBER
1972
licit
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart B2
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
—,
Comprehensive Production
^
1150n
1100-1
1000850850-
snn-
*200. GNP In cment dollars, Q |ann. rate, Ml. dol.)
*47. Industrial production (index: 1987=100)
Comprehensive Income
*52. Personal income (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
constmctlorfaimrfate;inntdtl
5;:
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
88
69
70
71 1972
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
ItCII
NOVEMBER
1972
23
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
1950
51
52
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
NOTE: For this eco.Tomic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, end Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
24
NOVEMBER 1972
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Formation of Business Enterprises
13. New business incorporations (thousands)
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division,,
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.
BCII NOVEMBER
1972
25
Section B
! Chart B3
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
1 FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
New Investment Commitments - Con
11.New capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bil. dol.)1
24. Manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense (bil. dol.)
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial (mil. sq. ft.
of floor area; MCD moving avg.-6-term)l
28. New~|i!vafOousmjpn^
avg.-5-term)
*29. Mew building peimiis, piivale housing units (index. 1967-tOOj
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
6^
65
66
S7
68
c9
70
7! 1??
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 77 and 78.
26
NOVEMBER 1972
BCII
Section B
Chart
B3
vnuCAl : *ID!C£'''ORS< Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Backlog of Investment Commitments
120100-
80- ;
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (bii. dol.)
60-'
\7
40302520-
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bil. dol.)
10-
5J
Lagging Indicators
Investment Expenditures
"61. Business expenditures, new plant ana equipment, u |ann. rate, DM. ooi.j
I
69. Machinery and equipment sates and busli
40J
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
5D
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1972
27
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
conipdfltgs reporting higher inventories
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and 79.
28
NOVEMBER
1972
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
I Chart
B4
| INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Inventory Investment and Purchasing --Con. jjifflP
100-,
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries
75-
50-
25J
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(bit. dot.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
+2-1
0--
-2-J
Lagging Indicators
200-j
180160- (
140- •
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (tail, dol.)
120-
<
1008040"
35-
30-
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.)
2520-
15-
10-J
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
BUI NOVEMBER 1972
29
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
160-
Sensitive Commodity Prices
111
*23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1967-1001
140-
<
120- '
100-<
80140-
120100- '
«19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10)
80- '
60-
60-i
50-c
40- !
c
*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (am. rate, oil. do I.)
305040-
18. Corporate profits after taxes,
1958 dollars, Q (am. rate, bil. doll
<
30-;
2014-
corporate, aH industries, Q (percent)
A
1210- .
<
8-
67-
15 Profits (after taxes) oer dollar of sates, manufacturing Q (cents)
5--
3I
105- ;
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing liidex: 1967=1001
100- ,
95-
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 79 and 80.
30
NOVEMBER 1972
BCII
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart B5
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Leading Indicators-Con.
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
J
40 -1
Roughly Coincident Indicators
55. Wlmtesate uilues, Indus Uidl cuminudilies (index. 1967-100)
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (index: 1987=100)
1950
51
52
53
54
5S
56
y/
511
64
85
6€
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
KCII
NOVEMBER
1972
31
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.
Lagging Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
130-,
125-
Unit Labor Costs
120115110-
Unit labor cost, total private economy-
105100-
XI
63. Index, Q (1967-100)
95-
90J
63c. Change over l-quarter spans, Q (ann. rate, percent)
. Labor cost (curr. dol.) per unit of real corporate product, 0 (dollars)
0.70125120115110-
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967=100)
10510095908580-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
32
NOVEMBER
1972
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT
Leading Indicators
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Flows of Money and Credit
+25-
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks (M2)
+20+15+10-
%
+5-
0+25+20+15-
103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at banks
«n»rcentr
+10+5-
0-
m
85. Change tn money supply [Ml) [ann. rate, percent; MLU moving avg.-b-term|
+20+15+10+5-
0+55+50+45+40-
33. Chiance in mortcagi debt fann. ratp, bit, dot.
+35+30+25+20+15-
~\~^^_jr
+10+20-
*113. Change In consumer installment debt (ann, rate, bil. dol.)
+15+10+5-
0-
T-ffll
112 Change in business loans (ann rate bil dot*
-5+20-
+15+10-
/
f%.^-wy
***&C-
+5-
0-5-
-10-15-
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
NOVEMBER 1972
BCD
33
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
Flows of Money and Credit - Con
110. Total private borrowing, Q (am. rate, bit. dol.)
14. Liabilities of business failures (mil dol.-inverted scale;
39. DeRntjuency rate, 30 days and over, total installment loans
(percent-inverted scale)
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
34
NOVEMBER 1972
ItUI
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
93. Free results (bil. dol.-inverted scale)
us. corporate oona yields (percent)
lid. Treasury dona yields (percent)
117. Municipal bond yields (percent)
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
BCII
NOVEMBER 1972
35
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Outstanding Debt
120-i
10080- i
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)
60- '
40-
10080-
60-
1
^2. Commercial and inchistrtal loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks (bil. i
40-
98Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages
7*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent)
65-
7V7118. Mortgage yields, residential (percent)
v
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
36
NOVEMBER
1972
ltd)
Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
Chart B7 I COMPOSITE INDEXES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
I
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
/r
Index: 1967=100
VwH
S Ufl
-2
810. Twelve leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted1
(series 1, 5, 6,10,12,16,17,19, 23, 29, 31,113)
130120-
-X^^H^/
>X
150-i
140-
-i
110-
mo1 JU"
^F
-' -,',
/
'"
*
if-"-' X
:;
130120-
X^ ^
y"
140-
110-
"
mn-
130120110100-
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.
'Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
BCD
NOVEMBER 1972
37
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
120-i
110-
11. Twelve leaders, prior to trend adjustment
S (series 1, 5, 6, l||1f, 16,17,19,1K29, 31,113)
1009080-
120-i
Leading Indicator Subgroups
110-
813. Marginal employment adjustments (series 1, 2, 3, 5)
1009080130-
120110-
; (series 6,10,12, 29)
414. Capital investment i
10090-
'
815. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 23, 25, 31,37)
El
120-j
110-
*/^~\
/X^A
10090-
816. Profrtabilty (series 16,17,19)
617. Sensitive financial flows (series 33, 85,112,113)
100-
90-
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 83.
38
NOVEMBER 1972
ncn
Section B
Chart B8
Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST
Leading Indicators
*1. Average workweek, production workers/ manufacturing (hours)
*5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance (thousands-inverted scale)
*12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74, 77, and 78.
BCII
NOVEMBER
1972
39
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
T
*31
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
ann. rate, bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-5-term)
*23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1967=100)
*!9. Stock prices, §00 common stocks (index: 194143=10)
*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (ann. rate. bit. dol.)
*17. Ratio, price to unit iabor cost, manufacturing (index: 1967=100)
*I13. Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 78, 79, 80, and 81.
40
NOVEMBER 1972
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
''•V v4°v\
:'_,' »
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
'ff.-f {i
BrJ:
P
^^^^
^J^^1^1^
£%
IH
T
-; -;'!'.'' -= r °
C;?\'v '
ffir|
vi:<^
(Nov.) (Nov.)
T
fS<
^-^^iJ
900800-
vnn-
*52. Personal income (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
120011001000-
(index: 1967-100)
140130120110100-
90-
*56. Manufacturing and trade
sales (bil. dol.)
*54. Sales of retail stores
(bil. dol.)
*41. Employees on nonagncuiturai
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 75 and 76.
ltd! NOVEMBER
1972
41
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Lagging Indicators
*44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)
*61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade Inventories (bil. dol.)
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967=100)
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks (bil. dol.)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 78, 79, 80, and 82.
42
NOVEMBER 1972
RCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart Cl
AGGREGATE SERIES
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(Nov.)
T
expenditures tor new plant
**i equipment, all industries, Q
pj aCCOmi amUiipauons as
percent of actual (percent
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
1973
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
NOVEMBER 1972
43
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
(July)
(Apr.)
(May)
(Feb.)
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
P
T
P
T
200-,
180-
160-
410. Manufacturers' sales, total value, Q (Oil. dol.)
140-
120-
412. Manufacturers'inventories, total
book value, Q (bil. dot.)
70-
60-
50-
30-
414. Condition of manufacturers' inventories: •
Hefcent considered high less percent /
..*..
v
20-
ww, Q (peiuehlj
10-
010-
416. Adequacy of manufacturers'capacity:
»
percent considered inadequate less percent
/
considered excessive, Q (percent-inverted scale) /
20-
\
\
30-
*•
40-
50-
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
1973
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
44
NOVEMBER
1972
Section C
Chart Cl
tfT.CiPAHGf'IS AMD ^KTfNT
| AGGREGATE SERIES -Con.
(Nov.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
T
Actual
Anticipated *
420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago, Q
60-,
(a) Percent of households reporting no change in family income (percent)
50-
40-
(b) Percent of households reporting higher family income (percent)
•
J
30-
c
20-
(c) Percent of households reporting tower family income (percent)
10-
0-
425. Mean probability of substantial changes in income of households, Q
(a) Mean probability of increase in family income (percent)
A~
»•«»*•
,-*,/ \ A
/
w * v \V-»s^
/
v
, ' -«.••••*^ A -\ sA\
>-./
--'
-
(b) Increase less decrease (percent)
//
20-
15-
i
10- '
(c) Mean probability of decrease in family income (percent)
5J
10"430. Number of new cars purchased by households, Q
9-
(a) Actual (quarterly)"
?«
7-
6J
110-1
r actual data (percent)
'
iirii
11 1
! f
;
105-
I
J
° 14
i
100-
mi
aa
'
95- ,
SOBS-
IIO-i
435. index or i
A
100-
-"-y-v
*-•* v
90- 8070-
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
1973
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
BCD
NOVEMBER 1972
45
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal quarter)
D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (1-Q span)
100-
|aj Actual expenditures
755025-
0.
100755025-
0100-
D440. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
9080706050100"
0442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)
9080-
-i
706050100"
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span]
9080706050-
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)
70605040-
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
1973
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
46
NOVEMBER 1972
ItCII
Section C
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal Quarter]
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
0460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
\
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
- 1001
1
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)
••
...••••••».
'•*-'
..».
.«.»...•
^
,*• *#•••• \
• ****
\
7 '
75-
50 J
1001
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)
75-
50 J
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
1973
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
^his is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
NOVEMBER 1972
47
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FOREIGN TRADE
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
500. Merchandise trade balance (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
Exports, Bxmirt mllliaiy aid (Ull. dui.r MCD moving avg.~e-lBi
506. Export orders, durables except motor vehicles
Ibil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
1957-59=100; M(t ittiving
512. General imports (bit. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on - -,ge 860
48
NOVEMBER 1972
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Tchart D2 ] BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
/w^
515. Balance on goods, services, and remittances
519. Balance on current account and long term capital
521. Net liquidity balance
UTTicial reserve transactions balance
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 87.
BUI
NOVEMBER 1972
49
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
(July)
(Aug.)
P
I
(May/ !,Feb
P
T
(July) \Apf.)
P
T
68-,
Major Components, Except Military Grants
of Goods and Services - Con.
84-
80-
56 H
48 H
44 J
40™
530. Liquid Kabifities to aH foretgnefs, outstanding at end of period
24H
161
9M«^
12-
532. Liquid and certain nonliquid iabiSties to
foreign official agencies, outstandng at end of period
534. U.S. official reserve assets-reserve position at end of period
22-i
18-
14-
10J
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 87. End of year figures are used prior to 1960.
50
NOVEMBER
1972
Section D
Chart D2
KEY'
1 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
76 -i
Goods and Services Movements,
Except Transfers Under Military Gran
72-
68-
I
64"
60-
Excess «f-receipts
Excess of payments
56J
56 n
52-
48-
44-
40250. Balance on goods and services
36-
32-
28-
24-
20-
16-
12and expenditures, and other services
4J
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 87. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
BCII
NOVEMBER 1972
51
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars
Investment Income, Military Sales
and Expenditures, and Other Services
Excess of receipts (inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
12-
Investment income-
.
S
I GO
542. income on U.S. investments abroad
\
0J
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.
13
Travel545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
(H
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad
4-
0-
546. Military sales to foreigners
12-
Transportation and other services-
549. Payments
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
0J
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
52
NOVEMBER
1972
ItCII
Section D
Chart
D2
r"* i ^i. :s*
«t* ' • » : _ * '
/;, -
'*$„,
»'".
— > f f u?c
\ " I / " • • ' * '• i** «**,.»
! BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P I
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Capital Movements Plus Government
Annual rate, billion dollars
£22 Excess *!receipts(inflow]
Excess of payments (outflow)
Direct investments'
+4-
0-
560, Foreign investments in the U.S.
_4J
+4-
565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities
0-
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net
0-
-4-
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net
0-
-4-
-8 J
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
BUI
NOVEMBER 1972
53
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Receipts and Expenditures
+20-
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product accounts, Q (ana rate, bit. dol.)
+10-
0- •
-10-'
-20-30-
260-,
240220200180160-
601. Federal receipts, national income and product accounts, Q (arm, rate, Ml dol.)
14012010080-
60-
7
260240220200180160-
I arm. rate, oil. dol.}
140120100-
8060-
L
1950 51
40-»
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 89,
54
NOVEMBER 1972
Section D
Chart D3
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
1009080'
70-I
264. National defense purchases, Q (ann. rate, by. dol.)
60
616. Defense Department obligations, total [bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
621. Defense Department obligations, procurement
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
W. NevRrdeisroefeW products tnmismes
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
648. New orders, defense
products (bil. dol.; MCD
moving avg.-6-term)
625. Military contract awards in U.S.
j 'ro
2H^
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 890
NOVEMBER
1972
55
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
PRICE MOVEMENTS
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
145-1
211. Fixed weighted price index, gross private product
(variable weigtrts prior to 1965), Q (index: 1958=100)
211c. Change in fixed weighted price index, gross private product,
overl-ijuarter spans, Q (aim. rate)
781c. Change in consumer price index, all items [seasonal!v adi.lSix-month spans (ann. rate)
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
'One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the amualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
56
NOVEMBER 1972
ito
KEY
Section D
| Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.)
P
(Nov.)
T
55c. Change in wholesale price index, industrial
1950
1
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 91 „
NOVEMBER 1972
57
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D5
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
(July) (Apr.:
Average hourly earnings of production waiters.
private nonfarm economy (annual data prior to 1964)740. Current dollar earnings [index: 1967=1001
741. Real earnings (index: 1967=100)
859. Real spendable avg. weekly earnings, nonagri.,__
production or nonsupervisory workers (1967 dollars)
Average hourly compensation, all employees
private nonfarm economy 745. Current dollar compensation, Q
746. Real compensation,
Q (index: 1967=100)
770. Output per man-hour, total private
economy, Q [index: 1967=100)
858. Output per man-hour, total private
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.
58
NOVEMBER
1972
ItCII
Section D
Chart
D5
i WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.
(Juiy)
P
(May) (Feb.)
ijuly) i Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
I
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
T
P
T
Change in avg. hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy, adj. --1
+20-1
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries+15-
+10-
748. First year avg. changes, Q (arm. rate)
749, Average changes over life of contract, Q (ann. rate)
ft 770c. Change in output per man-hour, total private economy, Q
II
One-quarter span (ann. rate)
/
+5-
0-1
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 2 One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against
the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans. See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93,,
BCII NOVEMBER
1972
59
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
%fl| Both sexes, 16-19 years of age
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 94.
60
NOVEMBER
1972
ltd*
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart El
L Clu
ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
T
P
T
840-1
820800780760740720700-
Gross National Product in 1958 dollars, Q
tann rate hil Hnl 1
, -',
680660640620-
206. Potential GNP'
\
600580-
205. Actual GNP
560540520500480460-
440-
420-
400-
380-
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70 71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 95.
'Trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersectingactual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and 4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to3rd quarter 1972.
IICII
NOVEMBER
1972
61
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
manufacturers' durable goods industries ratio)
853. Ratio, production of business
(index: 1967=100)
854. Ratio, personal saving to dsposabie personal income, Q (ratio)
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 96,
62
NOVEMBER 1972
BCII
Section E
Chart E3
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
D1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing-21 industries (9-mo. span— , 1-mo. span----)
D6. New orders, durable goods industries-36 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)
D11. Newly approved capital appropriations-17 industries (3-Q span~«, 1-Q span*—)'
D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profits-about 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-Q span)
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks-77 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
D23. Industrial materials prices-13 industrial materials (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
D5. Initial claims, State unemployment insurance-47 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)
1,950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 97 and 98.
BCII NOVEMBER
1972
63
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
041. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls-30 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
047. industrial production-24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—]
058. Wholesale pricey^p»factured goodst^ industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo, span-—)
054. Sales of retail stores-23 types of stores (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 98.
64
NOVEMBER 1972
ltd*
Section E
ANALYTICAL
Chart
RATES OF CHANGE
E5
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
Percent change, annual rate
200, (c) GNP In current dollars (1-Q span)
+15+10+5-
0-5-
205. (cj GNP in constant dollars (1-0 span)
m
+10-
+ 50-5-10-
* Eomposlte index of 5 coincident indicators [series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56)
48. Man-hours in non agricultural establishments
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
1973
To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult 'Index—Series Finding Guide,* pp. ]19, 120, and 121.
BCII NOVEMBER 1972
65
DM
Fr.
£
F
Lit.
Chart Fl
950 51
Section
¥
52
CONSUMER PRICES
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 103.
66
NOVEMBER 1972
ltd*
Section F
Chart F2
I INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
1950
51
52
53
54
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 103 and 104.
BCII NOVEMBER
1972
67
Section F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
STOCK PRICES
(July)
P
1950
51
52
53
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
54
55
56
57
58
(May) (Feb.)
P T
59
60
61
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 104.
68
NOVEMBER 1972
BCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
a. Total
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
210. Implicit price deflator
205. Constant (1958) dollars
200. Current dollars
b. Difference
a. Total
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
(Ann/rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
b. Difference
a. Total
(Index:
1958=100)
(Index:
1958=100)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
1969
907.0
923.5
941.7
943.9
+16.8
+16.5
+18.2
+7.2
+7.7
+7.5
+8.2
+3.1
722.4
725.8
729.2
725.1
+5-9
+3-4
+3.4
-4.1
+3-4
+1.9
+1.9
-2.3
125.6
127.2
129.1
130.9
+1.3
+1.6
+1.9
+1.8
+4.2
+5.5
+6.1
+5.5
958.0
971.7
986.3
989.7
+9.1
+13-7
+14.6
+3.4
+3.9
+5.9
+6.1
+1.4
720.4
723.2
726.8
718.0
-4-7
+2.8
+3.6
-8.8
-2.5
+1.5
+2.0
-4.8
133.0
134-4
135.7
137.8
+2.1
+1.4
+1.3
+2.1
+6.5
+4.3
+4.0
+6.5
1,023.4
1,043.0
1,056.9
1,078.1
+33.7
+19.6
+13.9
+21.2
+14-3
+7.9
+5.4
+8.3
731.9
737.9
742.5
754.5
+13.9
+6.0
+4.6
+12.0
+8.0
+3.4
+2.5
+6.7
139.8141.3
142.4
142.9
+2.0
+1.5
+1.1
+0.5
+5.9
+4.4
+2.9
+1.5
1,109.1
1,139.4
rl,164.0
+31.0
^30.3
r+24.6
+12.0
+11.4
r+8.9
766.5
783.9
r796.1
+12.0
+17.4
r+12.2
+6.5
144.7
145.3
r!46.2
+1.8
+0.7
r+0.9
+5.1
+1.8
r+2.4
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter. •
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT-Con.
Year
and
quarter
215. Per capita
GNP, current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
217. Per capita
GNP, constant
(1958) dollars
+9.4
r+6.3
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
220. National
income in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
222. Personal
income in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dol.)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
4,491
4,562
4,639
4,661
3,577
3,586
3,592
3,562
746.6
761.9
774.6
781.0
726.5
743-3
759.6
774-3
612.5
625.7
643.2
656.1
505.5
510.0
517.3
521.2
3,033
3,091
3,169
3,223
2,503
2,520
2,549
2,560
4,694
4,749
4,807
4,809
3,530
3,535
3,542
3,489
787.5
796.7
806.3
804.1
785.7
806.1
813.4
819.8
667.9
687.2
699.1
704.0
524.2
534-2
538.9
535.4
3,273
3,359
3,407
3,421
2,569
2,611
2,626
2,602
4,960
5,043
5,098
5,187
3,548
3,568
3,582
3,630
834-5
851.4
860.8
876.2
838.0
858.1
867.9
881.5
725.7
742.9
750.4
758.5
546.6
554.6
556.5
560.9
3,517
3,592
3,620
3,649
2,650
2,682
2,684
2,698
5,326
5,461
r5,568
3,681
3,757
r3,808
903.1
922.1
943.1
907.0
922.1
r939.9
770.5
782.6
r798.8
565.7
571.4
r579.6
3,700
3,751
3,821
2,716
2,739
r2,773
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series
relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and H NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9, 10, and 65-
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1972
69
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Year
and
quarter
230. Total in
current dollars
231. Total in
constant(1958)
dollars
232. Durable
goods, total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
234. Automobiles
233. Durable
goods,total except in current dollars
autos, in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
237. Services in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1969
465.5
469.3
469.5
472.2
90.2
91.0
90.6
91.4
58.4
59.6
58.8
59.5
31.8
31.4
31.8
31.9
240.2
474.1
623.0
626.5
476.9
480.2
476.5
90.2
91.6
92.6
87.5
61.3
61.6
62.9
64.1
648.0
660.4
670.7
680.5
488.2
493.0
497.4
503.2
99.8
101.9
106.1
106.1
511.0
56^.0
575.8
583.7
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
247.3
233.7
239.6
245.8
251.1
251.9
28.9
30.0
29.7
23.4
257.8
262.4
266.3
256.1
271.3
267.7
65.5
67.6
69.0
70.2
34.3
34.3
37.1
35.9
273.4
277.2
278.5
283.4
274.8
111.0
113.9
74.1
75.7
rl!8.6
r77.0
36.9
38.2
r41.6
288.3
297.2
r302.0
296.7
302.4
r308.0
245.1
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
604.1
613.4
259.4
264.1
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
281.3
286.1
290.9
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
696.1
713.4
r728.6
520.9
528.7
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
241. (Presidential
fixed investment
240. Total
and
242. Nonresidential
structures
243. Producers'
durable equipment
245- Change in
business inventories
244. Residential
structures
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
135.6
138.6
143.8
137.9
95.5
96.9
100.2
101.4
32.4
33.4
35.4
35.8
63.1
63.5
64.8
65.7
33.1
33.5
33.0
30.9
+8.1
+10.6
+5.5
64.8
65.6
67.2
62.1
31.2
29.7
30.3
33.6
+1.5
+6.3
+6.2
+5.7
37.0
41.4
44-5
47.3
+4.9
+6.6
+1.3
+1.7
51.6
52.8
+0.4
+5.0
r54.4
r+8.0
+6.9
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
132.9
137.7
139.9
137.8
100.2
101.7
103.4
98.5
35.5
36.1
36.2
36.3
143.9
153.0
152.2
158.8
101.9
105.0
106.3
109.8
37.6
38.3
38.7
38.8
64.3
66.7
67.6
168.1
177.0
116.1
119.2
rl83.2
rl20.7
41.3
42.0
r41.8
74.8
77.2
r79.0
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
71.0
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
a
e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12.
70
NOVEMBER
1972
IICII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
H
Q| FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
252. Exports
of goods and
services
253. Imports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol,)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
264. National
defense
262. Federal
260. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1969
First Quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1970
+1.2
+1.1
+2.6
+2.7
47.9
56.8
58.1
59.2
46.6
55.8
55.5
56.5
206.2
208.1
211.6
214.0
98.8
97.6
99.3
99.4
78.0
77.3
79.4
78.9
107.4
110.4
112.3
114.6
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
+3.6
+3.9
+4.0
+2.8
61.5
63.0
63.7
63.2
57.9
59.2
59.8
60.4
217.3
216.7
219.5
222.6
99.7
96.2
95.2
95.0
78.9
74.7
73.8
72.9
117.6
120.5
124-3
127.6
First quarter
Second quarter- ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1972
+4-5
+0.1
+0.4
-2.1
66.3
66.7
68.5
63.0
61.8
66.6
68.2
65.1
227.0
229.5
233.6
240.9
96.2
96.3
97.9
100.7
72.5
71.2
70.1
71.9
130.8
133.3
135.7
140.2
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
-4.6
-5.2
-3.4
70.7
70.0
r74-4
75.3
75.2
r77.8
249.4
254.1
r255.6
105.7
108.1
r!05.4
76.7
78.6
r75.1
143.7
146.0
r!50.2
1971
H
Q FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
Durable goodr
270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
280. Compensation 282. Proprietors'
of employees
income
Nondurable goods
271. Change in
274. Final sales
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
284. Rental income
of persons
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
181.1
180.3
183.0
184.7
+3.9
+5.9
+6.5
+3.7
260.7
266.8
268.8
273.3
+3.0
+2.2
+4.1
+1.9
545.6
559.2
574.0
585.2
67.1
67.4
67.1
67.2
22.0
22.6
22.7
22.9
184.4
185.2
187.4
174.8
+1.0
+1.6
+6.0
-0.9
277.8
282.1
285.2
290.7
+0.5
+4.7
+0.2
+6.6
594.3
600.7
609.0
611.2
67.7
67.1
66.6
65.8
23.0
23.2
23.4
23.8
189.6
191.0
197.7
200.1
+3.7
+3.6
-1.0
-1.9
292.6
294-8
298.5
303.0
+1.2
+3.1
+2.3
+3.5
628.6
639.6
648.0
660.4
68.1
69.3
70.7
71.8
23.9
24.4
24.8
25.0
208.8
214.6
220.7
+0.4
+3.0
r+5.4
308.4
317.5
r321.7
0.0
+2.1
r+2.6
682.7
697.8
r710.2
73.3
73.2
75.3
25.2
24.2
26.2
1970
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 14, 15, and 16.
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1972
71
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
•NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
I
Year
and
quarter
SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
290. Gross saving
288. Net interest
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
294. Undistributed 296. Capital consumption
corporate profits
plus inventory valu- allowances
ation adjustment
292. Personal
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
298. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
83.0
82.8
79.8
73.5
28.9
30.0
31.1
32.3
138.1
143.1
149.0
145.5
32.4
33.3
42.6
17.5
17.3
16.4
10.3
78.8
80.8
82.6
84.1
69.3
71.5
72.0
66.9
33.2
34-2
35.3
36.5
141.3
144.3
144.5
138.2
46.3
55.9
58.0
59.2
10.2
12.1
11.7
85.1
85.8
86.6
87.9
-11.8
-18.8
76.6
80.1
78.3
79.4
37.3
38.1
39.1
39.7
148.5
154-8
154.6
157.8
59.3
64.1
61.0
59.3
13.0
16.0
15.2
18.8
90.2
92.4
95.0
97.4
-14.0
-18.0
-16.9
-18.7
81.8
66.1
p89.7
40.1
40.9
41.7
163.9
168.0
P173.7
55.7
50.1
r50.8
17.0
19.8
p21.1
99.7
105.3
104.1
-7.7
-6.9
+9.5
+11.7
+7.5
+6.5
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
9.9
-0.2
-9.6
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
p-2.2
REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
273. Final sales,
constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
246. Change in
business inventories,
constant
(1958) dollars
247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, constant
(1958) dollars
248. Fixed investment, residential
structures, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
249. Gross auto
product, constant
(1958) dollars
261. Government
purchases of goods
and services, total,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
716.5
719.0
719.8
720.4
+6.0
+6.8
+9-4
+4.6
79.2
79.3
80.9
80.9
24.5
24.6
23.7
21.9
37.2
33.3
36.3
33.2
147.4
146.3
145.1
144.6
719.5
717.5
721.9
713.2
+0.9
+5.6
+4.9
+4.8
78.8
78.9
79.3
73.6
22.2
21.1
22.0
23.9
29.2
32.8
31.6
20.0
142.4
138.6
137.5
137.3
728.1
732.6
741.7
753.8
+3.8
+5.3
+0.7
+0.7
75.3
76.4
76.4
79.2
25.9
28.3
30.1
32.1
37.1
34.8
37.8
35.8
136.1
135.7
137.6
141.1
766.3
780.0
r789.8
+0.3
+3.9
r+6.2
82.2
34-2
34-4
r35.1
35.6
37.0
r40.6
142.2
143.9
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
83.6
r84.2
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p w , preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16,17, and 18.
72
NOVEMBER
1972
KCI!
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Year
and
quarter
Percent of Gross National Product
230A. Personal
consumption
expenditures
(Percent)
241A. Fixed
investment,
nonresidential
(Percent)
244A. Fixed
investment, residential structures
(Percent)
262A. Federal
266A. State and local
Govt. purchases of Govt. purchases of
goods and services goods and services
250A. Net exports of goods
and services
(Percent)
245A. Change
in business
inventories
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
62.2
62.3
62.0
62.6
10.5
10.5
10.6
10.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.3
+0.8
+0.9
+1.1
+0.6
+0.1
+0.1
+0.3
+0.3
10.9
10.6
10.5
10.5
11.8
12.0
11.9
12.1
63.1
63.1
63.2
63.3
10.5
10.5
10.5
10.0
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.4
+0.2
+0.6
+0.6
+0.6
+0.4
+0.4
+0.4
+0.3
10.4
9.9
9.7
9.6
12.3
12.4
12.6
12.9
63.3
63.3
63.5
63.1
10.0
10.1
10.1
10.2
3.6
4.0
4.2
4-4
+0.5
+0.6
+0.1
+0.2
+0.4
-0.2
9.4
9.2
9.3
9.3
12.8
12.8
12.8
13.0
62.8
62.6
62.6
10.5
10.5
10.4
4.7
4.6
+0.0
-0.4
-0-5
-0.3
9.5
9.5
9.1
13.0
12.8
12.9
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
0.0
0.0
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
4-7
40.4
r+0.7
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Percent of National Income
280A. Compensation
of employees
(Percent)
284A. Rental income
of persons
282A. Proprietors'
income
(Percent)
286A. Corporate profits and 288A. Net interest
inventory valuation
adjustment
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
1969
73.1
73.4
74.1
74.9
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
9.0
2.9
3.0
2.9
2.9
11.1
9.4
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
10.9
10.3
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
75.5
75.4
75.5
76.0
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
9.0
8.9
8.3
75.3
75.1
75.3
75.4
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
9.2
9.4
9.1
9.1
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
7.9
2.8
2.6
p8.0
p2.8
9.1
9.3
P9.5
4-4
4-4
P4.4
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
75.6
75.7
P75.3
8.1
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown atthe back of the book. The V indicates revised,"r/r preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 19.
NOVEMBER
1972
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
LEADING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Job Vacancies
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
*1. Average
workweek of
production workers,
manufacturing
Year
and
month
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
(Hours)
(Hours)
1970
January
February
March
.
21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production
workers, manufacturing
232
250
263
40.3
40.1
40.1
3.3
3.2
3.2
Apri 1
May
June
40.0
39.8
39.9
3.0
3.0
3.0
July
August
September
40.1
39.8
39.4
3.0
October
November
December
39.5
39.6
39.6
2.8
2.7
2.7
January
February
March
39.9
39.7
39.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
r3.7
April
May
June
39.8
40.0
40.0
2.9
2.9
2.9
r3.9
r3.9
July
August
September . . .
40.0
39.8
39.6
3.0
2.9
2.8
October
November
December
39.9
40.1
40.2
3.0
3.0
3.1
40.1
40.4
40.4
2.9
3.2
3.3
H> 40.8
40 5
40.7
3 5
3.4
3.4
July
August
September
40 6
/ 3
9A/
[u\ 4-«
/ 7
In/
'
fp\ ???
/n 7
3 L
r? ^
fu\
T.^ A
lH)r^.b
October
November
December
P40.7
r>3 *>
(MA")
2.9
2.8
(Thous.)
(2)
f)
...
50. Number of
job vacancies,
mfg.
3. Layoff rate,
*5. Average
manufacturing
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs -1
(Per 100
employees)
(Thous.)
4.3
r4.3
r4.1
4.0
4.1
r4.1
4.1
r4.0
3.8
3.6
3.7
r3.7
326
313
303
265
288
338
341
338
297
46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspaper
(1967=100)
2
( .)
1.5
r204
185
168
rl.7
rl.8
109
109
103
1.9
r!26
99
95
92
1.6
1.8
r!22
rl!2
r!04
91
89
85
rl.9
rl.9
r!49
140
rl.8
94
r88
r91
77
78
80
r89
87
84
75
77
78
1.6
1.5
1.5
r88
87
r91
78
79
83
1.5
1.9
r87
r86
r92
85
85
80
r2.2
2.0
rl.7
1971
3.7
3.9
289
283
293
1.7
rl.6
rl.6
3.7
281
292
296
3.7
4.2
3.9
280
312
312
rl.6
302,
rl.5
4.1
3.9
293
270
1.4
1.4
r92
r92
r93
80
81
85
4.4
261
257
259
1.3
1.2
1.2
r98
106
rill
85
87
90
rll7
118
rl27
9?
93
96
r3.8
1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
. .
j r\ f.
r4.4
r4.4
r4 3
4.7
r4.0
r\/
?.
P4o
257
°63
?Q/
p^n
-.oc^.
rl.l
1.0
1.4
12
i n
[uX-rVi n
|H)pl.O
/VTA X
iJMAj
T»I ^n
i ^n
-i QCV
[H)pi38
[|"j\
-irn
^
LU
fo\ ->nA
_QQ
p9V
/ »T * \
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by |H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14,39, 40,43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 20, 21, and 391
Data exclude Puerto Rico vhich is included in figures published by source agency.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
2
74
NOVEMBER 1972
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
Q| EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.
Minor Economic
Process
Comprehensive Employment
48. Man-hours
n nonagricultural
establishments
Year
and
month
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.
....
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey x
*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
*43. Unemployment rate, total x
(Percent)
40. Unemployment rate,
married males1
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State2
programs
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15 1 3
weeks and over
1970
1.8
139.26
139.47
139.48
70,875
71,007
71,081
75,428
75,294
75,494
3.9
4.2
4.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.0
2.2
0.5
0.6
0.7
139.14
138.31
138.04
71,007
70,730
70,574
75,353
74,969
74,865
4.7
4.8
4.8
3.1
3.5
3.7
2.3
2.5
2.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
July
August
September
138.24
137.87
137.01
70,612
70,472
70,499
75,125
75,092
75,010
5.0
5.1
5.4
3.5
3.7
4.3
2.7
2.8
2.9
0.8
0.9
1.0
October . . . .
November
December
136.50
136.28
137.03
70,065
69,968
70,274
75,338
75,162
75,032
5.5
5.8
6.1
4.4
4.4
4.0
3.0
3.2
3.3
0.9
1.1
1.3
January
February
March
137.23
136.39
137.03
70,331
70,266
70,299
75,312
75,190
75,059
6.0
5.9
6.0
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.3
3.2
3.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
April . .
May ...
June...
137.22
137.72
137.84
70,461
70,643
70,574
75,192
75,418
75,299
6.0
6.1
5.8
3.9
4.3
4.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
1.3
1.4
1.4
July .
August
September
137.58
137.53
137.58
70,532
70,548
70,843
75,640
75,792
76,088
5.9
6.1
6.0
4.0
4.1
4.6
3.1
3.2
3.3
1.5
1.5
1.5
October
November
December
138.18
139.02
139.38
70,861
71,103
71,291
76,416
76,601
76,698
5.8
6.0
6.0
4.4
4.1
3.8
3.0
3.3
3.2
1.5
1.5
1.5
January
February
March
139.73
140.40
140.77
71,552.
71,744
72,011
77,243
77,266
77,759
5.9
5.7
5.9
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.0
2.8
2.8
1.4
1.5
1.4
April
May
June .
141.72
142.04
142 . 59
72,246
72,592
72 699
77 , 881
78,041
5-9
5 9
5 • 0c
3*5
3 6
3 .O/r
2.9
2.9
2.9
1.3
1/2 ?Q
79 AAl
175* QQr-p
3.0
r 72, 984-
78,348
78 , 647
5. 5
5.6
5-5
2.7
H)2.6
2.8
1.3
1.4
2 8
1.3
January
February
March
April
May ...
June
.
1971
1972
...
July
August
September
—I/O
£. f.
-r>~] 1 Q HO
1*14,5.
(<L
October
November
December
Jj)pl44.36
y/70
O OO
E)p73 , 53 5
70 ?"3O
(H)78 822
Iff)1). 5
0
/
3.3
3.4
[jj\^
\n/j'j ^
14
1.3
1.3
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by g); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
E). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 21, 22, 41, and 42. "'"Beginning with January 1972, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for
computing this series. Prior to January 1972, the I960 Census is used as the benchmark. 3Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency, ^o current high.
!!€!»
NOVEMBER 1972
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q| PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
TIMING CLASS ....
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
Comprehensive Income
Comprehensive Production
*200. Gross na- *205. Gross na- *47. Index of *52. Personal
ional product ;ional product industrial pro- ncome
n current dol- n 1958 dollars duction
ars
month
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1967=100)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
Sales of retail stores
53. Wages and *56. Manufac- 57. Final sales
salaries in min- uring and trade (series 200
minus series *54. Current
ing, manufactur- sales
59. Deflated
245)
ing and condollar sales
(1967 dollar)
struction
sales
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
bil.dol.)
1970
958)6
720.4
107.8
108.2
108.1
781.2
784.7
791.2
198.1
197.6
199.6
103,841
104,395
103,962
956.4
30,334
30,669
30,695
27,230
27,383
27,357
971.7
723.2
107.7
107.7
107.9
810.0
804.4
804.0
198.7
197.3
197.6
103,201
104,731
105,073
965)5
31,005
31,198
31,293
27,511
27,584
27,620
July
August
September
986.! 3
726.! 8
107.6
107.5
106.3
808.0
812.9
819.2
198.7
199.0
198.6
105,470
105,800
105,438
980.2
31,601
31,710
31,951
27,818
27,889
27,978
October
November
December
989)7
718.0
103.7
102.8
104.9
816.7
818.3
824.4
193.8
193.7
197.8
103,712
102,466
104, 998
984)l
31,621
31,282
31,761
27,568
27,202
27,499
l,023!i
73l!9
105.5
106.0
106.0
833.9
837.3
842.9
198.9
199.0
199.5
106,767
108,201
109,752
1,018)5
32,290
32,850
33,274
27,933
28,368
28,610
1,043'.6
737'.9
106.5
107.4
107.4
847.4
853.4
873.4
200.7
202.8
202.9
110,453
111,458
112,647
1,036.4
33,578
33,502
33,827
28,798
28,585
28,740
July
August
September
1,056.9
74.2.5
106.8
105.6
107.1
862.4
8.69.1
872.2
202.0
202.0
203.5
111,791
113,910
113,450
1,055.6
33,688
34,655
35,219
28,573
29,344
29,796
October
November
December
1,078.1
754.5
106.8
107.4
108.1
874.8
879.4
890.4
204.4
205.3
209.2
113,191
115, 757
115, 630
1,076.4
34,964
35,574
34,896
29,555
30,020
29,374
1,109.1
766)5
108.7
110.0
111,2
898.9
908.5
913.6
211.2
214.1
216.4
118,426
118,077
120,669
1,108.6
34,886
35,345
36,450
29,341
29,503
30,400
1,139.4
783)9
112.8
113.2
113.4
919.4
92A.O
922.9
218.1
218.8
219,9
r!21,685
rl22,8!4
r!22,283
1,134.'4
r36,296
r37,!41
r36,822
r30,272
r30,874
r30,55S
r!13.9
Rjrl,l64.0
E>r796)i
r 115.0
rl!5.7
932.9
940.0
r946.8
218.8
rl23,371
221.7
r!26,458 Drl,156)6
r224.2 [0>pl26,554
37,342
r37,969
r 37, 683
30,861
r31,302
r30,862
DP116.7
[H)P962.0
H>P38,750
E)P31,710
January
February
March
April
May
June
1971
January
February
March
.
April
May
June
1972
January
February
March
April
May
....
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
E)P226.5
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by [R); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14,39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
E). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graph of these series are shown on pages 23, 24, and 41.
76
NOVEMBER 1972
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
BS FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
^^^
TIMING CLASS ....
LEADING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
FOrm
EiiteKi»sSineSS
New lnvestment
^
Year
and
month
*12. Index of net 13. Number of
3usiness
new business
formation
incorporations
*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
(Number)
(Bil. dol.)
(1967=100)
8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
(1967=100)
(Bil. dol.)
Commitments
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations1
(Bil. dol.)
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
capital goods
industries,
nondefense
(Bil. dol.)
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and
industrial
buildings I
(Mil. sq.ft. floor
space)
1970
January
February
March
114.5
114.2
110.7
22,196
22,968
21,181
26.48
27.33
26.80
131
137
132
8.98
8.89
8.04
6^68
6.76
7.13
6.52
88.86
80.95
67.11
April .
May
June
109.7
107.8
107.0
21,745
22,046
21,984
26.98
27.88
27.91
130
110
120
8.83
8.32
8.04
6.48
6.68
7.09
6.66
64.00
58.19
54.47
July
August
September
106.1
105.2
105.4
21,896
21,841
22,194
28.03
27.84
27.23
116
135
118
8.40
8.08
7.91
6.32
6.95
6.67
6.66
70.45
61.04
60.16
October
November
December
106.0
105.7
104.8
21,604
22,381
22,071
25.74
25.75
28.26
115
130
132
7.79
7.91
8.82
5.86
6.64
6.48
7,43
51.71
54.00
54.69
January
February
March
105.8
105.4
108.7
22,338
20,923
23,220
29.08
29.25
29.57
124
126
142
8.18
8.23
8.61
S.ll
6.88
6.81
7,12
54.37
50.04
65.44
April
May
June
108.8
109.9
111.9
22,770
24,168
24,691
28.75
28.97
28.97
161
141
147
9.07
8.72
8.98
5^49
7.01
7.26
7.52
54.82
63.40
62.83
July
August
September
112.3
112.8
111.8
25,073
25,142
23,278
29.49
31.34
29.65
151
153
154
8.55
9.15
8.95
5.*89
7.21
7.49
7.47
60.67
54.82
70.72
October
November
December
114.7
116.7
115.6
25,050
25,828
25,529
30.32
31.29
31.00
137
155
160
9.36
9.52
9.48
5.*93
7.86
7.93
8.13
61.75
68.70
66.69
114.7
113.9
116.7
24,685
24,743
fi> 27,399
32.55
32.47
33.33
165
155
159
9.50
9.22
9,96
6*57
8.17
8.20
8.53
59.65
66.72
66.68
117.6
D 118.8
117.8
26,372
26,396
26,277
34.00
34.30
35.61
167
165
154
10.68
10.44
10.60
r6.97
8.78
9.04
9.23
65.53
E>81.95
70.51
July
August
September
118.1
117.5
117.5
26,893
26,612
26,795
r34-43
r35.73
[R>r36.S5
155
180
E>187
10.65
10.53
rll.44
DP7.11
9.10
9.21
r9.52
67.74
75.65
74.69
October .
November
December
(NA)
(M)
P36.63
171
H>pll.97
1971
1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
.
...
(H)P9.74
74.61
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0).
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs
of these series are shown on pages 25, 26, and 39.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division (series 8 and 9), or The Conference Board (series 11).
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1972
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
1970
January
February .
March.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
LEADING INDICATORS
New Investment
Commitments-Con.
Backlog of Investment
Commitments
Investment Expenditures
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing1 2
[Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.]
*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
69. Machinery 245. Change
and equipment in business
sales and busi- inventories
ness construction expenditures
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
bil.dol.)
103.88
1,109
1,322
1,364
93.1
98.0
99,2
80.27
79.11
77.89
April
May
June
1,230
1,280
1,396
- 107.3
116,4
115.9
76.93
76.26
75.71
July
August
September
1,506
1,401
1,531
116,0
122.2
125.0
75.02
73.97
72,97
October
November
December
1,589
1,621
1,943
137.1
131,6
154.9
71.72
70.93
71.36
January
February
March
1,810
1,793
1,938
146.2
137.8
150.9
71.94
72.22
72.16
April
May
June
1,951
2,046
2,008
150.8
172.7
167.7
71.40
70.38
68.98
19.64
July
August
September
2,091
2,219
2,029
182.2
179.3
174.1
68.67
69.17
69.02
19.46
October
November
December
1972
2,038
2,227
2,457
177.7
183.3
192.0
69.31
69.81
69,90
...
19.06
83.18
2,487
(H>2,682
2,369
193.2
180.2
175.9
70.49
70.92
71.56
...
2,109
2,350
2,330
174.5
171.3
185.9
71.98
72.58
75.06
.. .
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
28. New private *29. Index of
lousing units new private
started, total
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
(1967=100)
Year
and
month
H
HH FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
78.22
23.24
+1.5
105.47
106.21
102.87
+6.3
105.37
104.87
102.20
+6.2
101.33
101.41
102.68
+5.7
102.29
102.52
104.72
+4.9
81.61
103.33
105.51
107.28
+6.6
80.75
105.35
106.45
109.56
+1.3
110.00
110.78
116.21
+1.7
86.79
118.98
116.10
118.89
+0.4
R 87.12
120.95
123.18
123.42
+5.0
80.22
22.60
21.81
106.24
104.39
81.88
•..
78.63
20.96
*31. Change in
book value of
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total
37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Percent
reporting)
+2.7
+13.8
+6.6
50
50
51
+13.6
-1.1
45
40
46
+12.3
46
44
47
HL5.2
+9.0
+6.0
46
47
44
+2.6
+11.2
+6.8
1971
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
2,218
r2 484
r2 366
October
November
December
n? 1 in
184 8
196 1
r
fO\T»l
£
[H/
-LQrt
70O
p!94«4
75 67
76 69
_r»rt /--i
r 7S . 51
[H)P79.30
79.32
20.38
19.66
• ••
r20.57
a90.38
p21 . 42
121.70
(H)rl24.68
P123.92
(NA)
+9.6
+8.8
+11.0
46
49
51
+7.8
+9.5
+3.9
57
55
58
+5.5
+8.2
59
51
41
+12.4
[fl)r+8 0
+11.9
39
42
49
+5.5
+6.3
+5.2
49
52
51
+6.6
+5.8
52
52
47
+5.3
LL
+5.0
+1.3
+13.6
(H)r-fl8 3
(-S
5o
p+14.7
/ TlT/lN
INAJ
a91.84
59
rn\z:i7
In/o 7
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by g>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
B). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p ff , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26, 27, 28, 39, 40, and 42.
1
This is a copyrighted series used "by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the Conference
2
Board.
No current high.
78
NOVEMBER 1972
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
B
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
ffl
TIMING CLASS ....
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing-Con.
Inventories
Minor Economic
Process
20. Change in
book value,
mfrs.' inventories ofmtls.
and supplies
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
| PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Con.
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive ComStock Prices
modity Prices
*23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices®
*19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks®
(Bil.dol.)
(1967=100)
(1941-43=10)
26. Prod, materials, companies reporting commitments 60 days
or longer®
(Percent
reporting)
32. Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliveries®
25. Change in
unfilled
orders, durable goods
industries
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
65. Mfrs.'
inventories of
finished
goods, book
value
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
-2.10
Profits and Profit Margins
Corporate profits after
taxes
16. Current
dollars
18. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
41.4
32*5
1970
January .
February .
March
-l.l
+3.4
+1.1
61
62
56
56
58
50
-1.16
-1.23
166.92
168.07
168.63
31.43
31.72
31.95
118.9
119.5
118.7
90.31
87.16
April
May
June
-1.2
-1.6
-0.3
60
57
55
52
72
69
-0.96
-0.67
-0.55
169.76
169.67
170.70
32.52
32.54
32.75
118.2
117.5
114.8
85.95
76.06
75.59
40.6
31*5
July .
August
September
+0.3
+1.5
+1.1
52
50
52
50
45
45
-0.70
-1.05
-1.00
171.97
172.72
173.22
33.05
33.21
112.4
111.2
110.5
75.72
77.92
82.58
41^2
3l!?
October
November
December
+2.2
+2.6
+1.2
54
54
52
38
36
36
-1.25
-0.80
173.44
174.37
174.94
33.66
33.96
109.5
108.8
106.4
84.37
84.28
90.05
37.4
28.3
January . .
February
March
+0.3
0.0
-1.6
52
59
56
38
44
46
+0.58
+0.28
34.18
105.9
107.2
107.8
93.49
43*2
-0.06
175.74
176.47
177.39
32.3
April
May
June
+4.2
+2.7
+2.3
57
55
58
52
53
50
-0.77
-1.02
-1.40
178.04
178.83
179.16
34.H
34.13
103.04
101.64
99.72
45.8
33.8
34-02
110.2
108.6
106.1
July
August
September
+2.1
-1.7
-3.7
57
55
52
48
49
48
-0.31
33.76
33.80
33.98
104.7
106.1
107.5
99.00
97.24
99.40
46.'<S
34*1
-0.15
179.61
180.30
181.33
October
November
December
0.0
-0.3
+1.1
51
50
45
50
48
51
+0.29
+0.50
+0.09
181.75
181.85
182.84
34.26
34.15
34.01
107.4
106.9
106.8
97.29
92.78
48.0
35*1
99.17
January
February
March
-0.1
+1.1
-3.7
53
55
56
52
52
58
+0.59
+0.42
+0.64
183.30
183.83
184.26
33.92
33.98
34.22
110.7
113.0
117.2
103.30
105.24
107.69
49^5
35^7
April
May
June
-0.1
+0.3
-0.2
51
56
56
58
60
60
+0.42
+0.60
184.82
185.95
186.44
34.29
34.42
34.67
119.5
124.3
123.8
108.81
107.65
108.01
51.5
36.9
E>+5.0
186.88
r!88.41
r+1.82 E>pl89.63
34.82
[H>r35.30
+0.44
33.39
33.91
88.65
1971
+0.50
34.22
34-41
97.11
99.60
1972
July
August
September
.
October
November
December
..
+4.0
0.0
54
57
63
63
56
65
(NA)
B>64
H)73
. .
D +2.4B
+0.60
+1.02
p+0.79
(NA)
35.18
(NA)
123.7
124.6
124.8
E>128.1
129.4
107.21
1H>111.01
109.39
(H>P53.7
[H>p38.2
109.56
3
113. 51
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicatedbyfH); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
E).
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28, 29, 30, 40, and 42.
1
ltd)
Average for November 6 and 14.
NOVEMBER 1972
3
Average for November 1, 8, and 15.
79
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
PI
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.
Profits and Profit Margins-Con.
22. Ratio,
)rofits to
ncome
orig., corp.,
all indus.
15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all
mfg. corp.
(Percent)
(Cents)
Cash Flow
*17. Ratio,
Net cash flow, corporate
price to unit
labor cost
index, mfg. 34. Current 35. Constant
dollars
(1958) dol.
(1967=100)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Unit Labor Costs
Unit labor cost, total
58. Index of
wholesale
private economy
prices, mfd.
63c. Change
63. Index
goods ©
over 1-Q
spans
(Ann. rate,
(1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)
percent)
55. Index of
wholesale
prices,
industrial
commod.®
68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per
unit of gross
prod. (1958
dol.), corp.
*62. Index
of labor
cost per
unit of output, mfg.
(Dollars)
(1967=100)
0.800
112.5
111.8
112.2
0.804
113.2
113.2
113.0
0.812
114.2
114.0
115.5
0.831
115.5
115.9
115.2
0.826
116.0
116.1
116.2
0.831
116.1
116.6
116.5
0.834
117.0
118.0
116.6
0.836
116.7
116.9
117.9
E>0.842
118.4
119.5
118.8
0.841
118.9
119.3
[H>120.0
1970
January
February
March
s'.4
ill
96.7
97.3
97.2
7i!6
55^8
108.3
108.7
108.9
108.8
109.1
109.3
118.2
April..
May .
June
8.3
l\2
96.7
97.0
97.3
70.6
54.8
109.3
109.7
109.8
109.6
109.7
110.0
us!?
8.3
4.0
96.6
97.1
96.0
7l!6
54^9
110.0
110.2
110.4
110.6
110.6
110.8
119.4
7.5
'3.6
96.3
96.1
96.7
68!8
51.4
111.3
111.3
111.7
111.2
111.2
111.2
121 .'5
8.5
4.6
96.5
96.7
96.9
75.2
55^5
112.2
112.5
112.8
111.8
112.4
112.7
122.6
April
May
June
8.5
l'.3
97.2
97.4
97.6
79.8
58.0
113.3
113.7
113.9
113.0
113.5
113.8
123! 2
July
August
September
8*.9
4^2
97.7
97.7
98.4
82.3
59!l
114.5
115.1
115.0
114.5
114.9
114.7
123.9
October
November
December
8.7
4.0
98.2
98.2
97.8
85.7
61.8
115.0
114.9
115.3
114.5
114.5
115.1
124.2
January
February
March
9^0
4^1
97.8
97.4
98.1
88.2
62*.4
115.9
116.5
116.8
115.7
116.5
116.7
[H>125.7
April
May
June
9*.!
IHH.3
98.2
98.4
98.1
93,3
65.4
117.3
117.6
117.9
116:9
117.4
117.8
125.5
r98.6
i). r99.5
r99.4
M)p95'.6
B>P66.6
118.1
118.5
118.7
118.3
118.5
118.8
rl25^5
D 118.8
H)118.8
. . . .
July
August
September
. . .
October
November
December
8.3
1.6
2.4
7.4
1971
January
February
March .
. .
1.7
3.9
2.6
1.0
1972
July
August
September
October
November
December
Dp9.3
(NA)
P99.2
[H>4.6
-0.6
rO.3
pO.841
rl!9.6
rll9. 4
rl!9.8
P119.9
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by g>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
IB). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk(*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The B r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
ar\d "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30, 31, 32, 40, and 42.
80
NOVEMBER 1972
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
C3 MONEY AND CREDIT
....
LEADING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Flows of Money and Credit
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply (Ml)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1970
January
February
March
102. Change in
money supply
plus time deposits at comm
banks (M2)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
103. Change in
moneysup, plus
timedep.at
banks and nonbank inst.(M3)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
33. Net change
in mortgage
debtheldbyfin.
instand life insurancel
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Credit Difficulties
*113. Net
112. Change
change in con- in business
sumer install- loans
ment debt
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
110. Total
private
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
mil.dol.)
14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures®
(Mil.dol.)
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, total
installment
loans
(Percent)
Revised2
+10.60
-4.67
+11.72
+5.27
-3.40
+9.29
+3.06
-2.24
+7.13
+18.64
+15.71
+15.37
+6.85
+5.02
+2.98
-1.92
+12.29
+2.80
80,076
137.28
139.39
120.02
April
May
June
+9.29
+4.03
+2.30
+10.76
+7.01
+5.75
+9.32
+6.64
+5.80
+15.68
+18.44
+19.03
+4.51
+3.97
+6.18
+3.70
+5.65
+2.15
91,124
131.90
147.89
170.50
July
August
September
+5.16
+7.42
+6.81
+10.85
+11.65
+10.65
+10.75
+10.85
+10.16
+21.78
+20.21
+22.14
+8.44
+4.76
+6.66
+2.15
+7.45
+0.12
84,380
251.92
169.59
232.94
October
November
December
+1.69
+2.82
+6.74
+8.21
+6.70
+11.30
+9.30
+7.69
+11.66
+22.87
+21.59
+24.78
+3.94
-1.50
+5.03
-18.97
-8.00
-4.99
100,284
144.77
119.84
121.72
January
February
March
+2.79
+13.38
+11.02
+14.06
H)+20.70
+18.68
+15.52
E)+20.93
+19.28
+23.92
+23.38
+29.89
+2.72
+6.24
+7.56
-3.97
+5.69
+1.70
111,952
168.80
150.90
224.65
April
May
June
+8.19
+14.10
+9.12
+12.08
+13.86
+10.75
+15.54
+15.17
+11.98
+30.90
+34.64
+39.96
+9.73
+6.80
+6.95
-8.26
+6.64
-0.18
129,328
153.80
249.49
165.84
July
August
September
+10.11
+3.17
-2.11
+7.46
+2.91
+2.90
+10.47
+6.57
+6.19
+44.58
+44.27
r+40.45
+8.30
+10.81
+13.22
-7.20
+16*03
D +20.42
147 > 8 56
147.03
155.56
115.85
+0.53
0.00
+2.63
+7.11
+6.55
+10.16
+9.07
+8.66
+10.96
+36.94
+40.08
+45.90
+10.50
+14.30
+10.68
-5.54
-0.95
-4-58
132,676
144.70
129.00
111.32
+3.16
+12.59
+11.94
+13.43
+14-30
+11.61
+15.37
+16.66
f!3.83
+34.14
+35.18
+44-89
+13.21
+10.60
+15.77
-8.51
+7.66
+5.03
rl39/94B
0)101.62
191.33
220.66
+7. VI
+2.55
+5.61
+7.25
+ 7.70
+10.62
+10.94
+9.73
+11.54
+45.38
+49.81
+ 53.48
+11.88
+15.98
+16.63
+12.74
+3.05
-10.74
r!50,476
148.47
190.14
127.90
[H> +14.20
+5.51
r+5.49
+11.26
+8.00
+8.43
+13-47
r+10.69
r+10.44
+50.04
[H}+58.09
p+50.50
+13.13
H/+19.72
+15.43
-1.09
+13. 88
+15.37
[H)pl52,432
p+8.13
+3.21
p+10.20
1.80
1.80
1*.82
1^88
1.88
l!87
1971
October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
P+3.97
+0.50
3
3
(NA)
(NA)
p+15.73
+16. 27
4
...
204.62
253.62
113.54
152.97
i!si
1.72
1.81
l'.75
1.94
Dl.'68
1.73
1.75
1.88
1.92
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by (R); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on oaaes 33, 34 and 40.*
1
Data include conventional mortgages held by the Government National Mortgage Association.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
3
Average for weeks ended November 1 and 8. 4Average for weeks ended November 1, 8, and 15.
NOVEMBER 1972
81
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
|J[ MONEY AND CREDIT--Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
....
Bank
Reserves
Minor Economic
Process
93. Free
reserves ©
Year
and
month
(Mil.dol.)
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt
Money Market Interest Rates
Interest Rates on Business
Loans and Mortgages
114. Treasury 116. Corporate 115. Treasury 117. Municipal 66. Consumer *72.Commercial *67. Bank
bond yields ® bond yields® bond yields® installment
and industrial rates on shortbill rate ©
debt
loans outstand- term business
ing, weekly re- loans, 35
cities® 1 2
porting large
:ommercial
banks
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil.doL)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil.dol.)
Revised6
118. Mortgage
yields, residential ®
(Percent)
1970
January
February
March
-799
-819
-781
7.91
7.16
6.71
9.00
8.84
9.00
6.86
6.Vi
6.39
6 65
6 36
6 03
Q^ 38?
95 800
96 048
83 205
8/ 229
8/ /62
8 86
April
May
June
-704
-795
-701
6.48
7.04
6.74
9.09
9.53
9.70
6.53
6.94
6.99
6 49
7 00
6.96
%
A2/
96 755
97,270
84 770
85 2/1
85 420
8/9
911
9 lA
»1,217
-682
-335
6.50
6.41
6.24
9.09
9.08
9.00
6.57
6 75
6.63
6.53
6 20
6 25
97,973
98,370
98,925
85 599
86 220
86 230
8
9 0*7
9 m
-208
-305
-4-9
5.93
5.29
4.86
9.14
8.97
8.13
6.59
6.24
5.97
6 39
5.93
5.46
99,253
99,128
99,547
At A/ q
83 982
83 566
8 07
8 97
8 9D
8 40
January
February
March
-91
-127
-120
4.49
3.77
3.32
7.63
7.54
7.62
5.92
5.84
5.71
5.36
5 23
5.17
99,774
100,294
100,924
83,235
83 709
83 851
6 59
(MO
April
May
June
-8
-18
-322
3.78
4.14
4.70
7.76
H>8.25
5.37
5.90
5.95
101,735
102,302
102,881
83 163
83 , 716
83 701
6 01
8.15
5.75
H)5.96
5.94
D-658
-606
-295
B> 5.40
5.08
4.67
8.24
8.14
7.90
5.91
5.78
5.56
IFF) 6. 06
5.82
5.37
103,573
104,474
105,576
83 , 101
84/37
86 139
6 51
October
November
December
1972
-153
-144
4.49
4-19
4.02
7.72
7.67
7.54
5.46
5.48
5.62
5.06
5.20
5.21
106,451
107,643
108,533
85,677
85,598
85 216
6.18
January
February
March
+153
3.40
3.18
3.72
7.36
7.57
7.53
5.62
5.67
5.66
5.12
5.28
5.31
109,634
110,517
111,831
84,507
85,145
85 , 564
5 5?
April
May
June
+27
-15
+110
3-72
3.65
7.77
7.6l
7.63
5.74
5.64
5 59
5/3
112 821
£
112, 1*53
115 539
86 626
86 880
7.72
7.59
5.59
5.59
5.70
July
August
September
October .
November
December
. . .
(m,\
9 29
9 ?D
9 in
911
5D
1971
July
August
September
July
August
September
+58
+91
+134
3 87
/ p./
cc
—:>:>
4«0o
r» "2 AO
4 • Ac
05
. ..
October
November
December
-i £Q
4«01
Y-Jjd
n-?/l
3
4
I*!?
7 • T~>
(<.
/ no
4«
f</ HI
rj
ff
I . DO
5
7. 52
0
5.69
f.
_._
5.53
Of)
c q;
2O4
5.41
4
116,633
118,276
5.30
5.36
[H> 119, 562
5.18
(NA)
5.05
(m\
7 "3?
|H>p89,643
3
90,999
[ff>7 97
7 92
7 84
7 75
7 D2
7 59
7/9
7.46
7/5
7.50
5 59
&c q&c
85,894
87,051
88,332
7 37
7 75
7 #9
7 c;^
/Oj?
7 c/
• 54
...
5.84
7.54
7.55
7.56
7.57
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H>- Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 35f 36 and 42.
*No current high. 2The survey in which these data are collected was revised, beginning with the 1st quarter 1971; thus, data
from that point are not strictly comparable with earlier data. sAverage for weeks ended November 1, 8, and 15.4Average for
weeks ended November 2, 9, and 16. 5Average for weeks ended November 3, 10, and 17.
6
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
82
NOVEMBER 1972 KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
H| COMPOSITE INDEXES
810. Twelve 811. Twelve
eaders, re- leaders, prior
verse trend ad- to trend adjusted ^series justment
1,5,6,10,12, 'same com16, 17, 19, 23, ponents as
29, 31, 113) in series 810)
Year
and
month
820. Five
coinciders,
estimated
aggregate
economic
activity
(series 41,43,
47, 52, 56)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
1970
January
February
March
116.2
116.5
115.0
103.7
103.7
101.9
121.0
121.2
121.2
April
May
June
114.9
113.8
114.4
101.5
100.1
100.3
July
August
September
116.2
115.2
114.5
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
825. Five
830. Six
coinciders,es- laggers
ti mated aggre- (series 44,
gate economic 61, 62, 67,
activity,
71, 72) 2
deflated
(series 41,43,
47, 52D,56D)
(1967=100)
Leading Indicator Subgroups
813. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1, 2,
3,5)
814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,
12, 29)
815. Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 23,
25, 31, 37)
(1967=100) (1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
115.5
115.4
115.4
131.9
131.4
131.2
98.3
96.6
94.1
108.0
108.4
105.6
121.6
121.0
121.0
115.6
114.7
114.5
131.3
131.0
131.0
93.2
92.9
93.3
101.5
100.2
99.3
120.9
120.8
120.4
114.2
114.1
113.7
131.7
132.3
131.9
113.6
113.7
116.0
98.1
97.8
99.5
118.4
117.4
118.9
111.3
110.1
111.3
118.7
120.1
122.6
101.4
102.2
103.9
120.6
121.3
121.9
April
May
June
124.3
125.5
125.5
105.0
105.6
105.2
July
August .
September
127.0
127.9
128.5
October
November
December
1972
January
February
... .
March
. . .
816. Profit- 817. Sensitive
ability
inancial flows
(series 16, series 33, 85,
17, 19)
112, 113)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
103.9
105.4
104.8
96.5
95.8
95.9
99.2
100.0
98.8
106.1
106.3
106.0
104.2
102.4
103.6
95.5
92.8
92.9
100.6
100.5
100.6
94.4
92.9
90.9
106.5
106.3
105.6
104.2
102.5
102.1
93.5
93.6
93.6
101.4
100.1
98.3
130.7
129.3
127.5
89.4
90.4
91.9
105.6
106.2
107.9
101.3
102.6
101.8
93.3
92.0
93.3
93.7
91.4
96.5
112.9
113.4
113.8
125.9
124.2
124.2
93.1
93.7
94.1
108.9
108.6
110.0
102.9
102.3
102.7
95.6
98.1
99.0
98.6
100.4
104.5
122.6
123.6
125.2
114.3
114.8
116.5
123.7
123.4
124.2
94.2
94.1
94.2
109.7
111.5
112.1
103.3
102.6
101.4
100.5
101.1
100.6
106.1
105.4
107.4
106.1
106.4
106.6
124.0
124.1
125. .2
113.7
113.7
115.9
124.5
125.9
125.9
93.7
93.2
92.6
113.0
114.2
112.8
102.0
102.6
101.3
100.7
100.5
101.7
109.1
110.0
108.6
129.7
rl31.4
r!32.7
107.1
108.2
1-108.8
125.5
126.6
127.6
115.3
rll6.5
117.3
125.8
125.8
125.9
93.3
r95.1
r95*2
114.7
116.2
116.0
100,7
100.8
102.3
101.3
100.6
101.9
104.6
r!05.0
1-104.8
rl34.6
rl34.8
138.3
rl09.9
rl09.7
112.1
129.4
130.8
132.2
118.9
119.9
121.1
125.8
125.7
126.1
r97.1
r97.8
r98.5
116.3
115.2
116.9
103.1
104.0
105.1
103.0
103.3
104.7
rl06.3
rlOS.l
116.8
April
May
June
rl39.7
rl41.8
I-L42.3
rll2.8
1-114.1
r 114.1
133-5
134-7
135-3
H22.3
127.0
127.4
128.6
r98.9
r99.6
96.9
118.0
118.2
119.1
105.8
107.8
107.8.
105.3
105.6
r!05.8
1-112.5
z-112.5
rl!3. 2
July
August
September
r!42. 6
rll3.9
z-147.0 [H> rll7.0
146.7
116.3
1-138.0
124.4
rl29.3
1-130.4
z-131.9
r98.4
(H)rl00.3
plOO.l
rl!8.8
1-119.4
120.6
105.8
rl09.1
1-109.8
r-106.4
E>rlOfi.2
z-107.6
rll.2. 5
[H>rl21.6
pl!7.5
i> P132.S
(MO
E>pl20.7
E>PH0.8
p!07.4
(NO
October
November
December
. .
3
@) 147.6
3
136.2
139.1
4
116.6 B> 141.1
123.2
123.7
rl26.3
126.6
4
[H) 128.6
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by 0); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The *r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 37 and 38.
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
Data beginning with January 1971 are not strictly comparable with earlier data because of technical changes in the collection
of data for one of the components (series 67).
^^cludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113 for which data are not yet available.
4
Excludes series 56 for which data are not yet available.
2
ItCII NOVEMBER 1972
83
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter
410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
c. First
b. Second
anticipations as anticipations as
percent of actual percent of actual
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Bil. dol.)
72.52
73.94
77.84
77.84
102.7
102.8
100.0
101.5
100.3
157.9
158.9
162.5
163.6
78.22
80.22
81.88
78.63
102.3
100.5
103.6
103.4
101.7
104.6
79.32
81.61
80.75
83.18
101.6
100.9
102.0
101.0
102.6
101.1
102.6
86.79
100.9
104.1
100.4
102.3
412. Manufactur- 414. Condition
ers' inventories, of manufacturers'
total book value inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low
(Percent)
(Bil. dol.)
416. Adequacy
435. Index of
of mfrs.' capac- consumer
ity: percent
sentiment
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive
(First quarter
(Percent)
1966:100)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
104.4
99.5
101.5
92.3
94.0
95.7
97.0
.18
19
22
22
43
38
39
41
95.1
91.6
86.4
79.7
159.2
158.2
359.4
154.4
98.5
99.6
100.7
101.7
23
23
21
20
38
36
33
33
78.1
75.4
77.1
75.4
162.0
166.6
167.8
171.1
101.8
101.6
101.4
101.7
19
20
18
16
26
21
20
19
78.2
81.6
82.4
82.2
178.7
183.9
a!88.8
a!90.8
102.5
103.5
alQV .4
a!05.4
12
10
(NA)
24
26
(NA)
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
99.0
103.9
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
99.1
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
87.12
a90.3S
a91.84
87.5
89.3
94-0
AGGREGATE SERIES--Con.
Year
and
quarter
420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reporting-a. No change b. Higher
in income
income
(Percent)
(Percent)
c. Lower
income
(Percent)
430. Household purchases of new cars
425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households
a. Increase
in income
(Percent)
b. Increase
c. Decrease
less decrease in income
(Percent)
(Percent)
a. Actual
(quarterly)
(Ann. rate,
mil, cars)
2-quarter moving average
b. Actual
(Ann. rate,
mil, cars)
c. Anticipated
(Ann. rate,
mil. cars)
d. Anticipated
as percent of
actual
(Percent)
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
52.7
45.6
46.2
48.3
35.4
41.3
40.0
37.3
11.3
12.4
13.0
13.6
16.5
18.1
18.6
17.6
11.3
12.0
13.0
11.6
5.2
6.1
5.6
6.0
7.3
6.9
7.6
6.4
7.3
7.3
7.0
7.0
8.0
7.9
7.5
7.8
111
111
103
111
50.3
49.8
48.5
50.8
35.0
35.1
37.6
34.9
14.1
14.5
12.5
13.6
20.1
19.9
18.2
16.7
13.8
12.9
10.9
9.4
6.3
7.0
7.3
7.3
7.4
8.3
8.1
6.9
7.8
8.2
8.4
7.7
8.0
7.6
7.6
112
103
93
90
51.4
51.0
53.6
35.2
35.7
34.3
12.7
12.5
10.9
17.2
19.9
17.0
15.7
10.5
12.4
10.2
9.0
6.7
7.5
6.8
6.7
8.3
8.9
D8.7
8.5
8.6
8.4
8.0
8.6
8.6
99
93
15.9
16.1
19.9
9.7
9.4
13.5
6.2
6.7
6.4
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1973
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
9.2
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 43, 44, and 45.
84
NOVEMBER
1972
KCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter
D61. Business expenditures for new
plant and equipment, all industries
a. Actual
expenditures
(1-Q span)
D442. Net profits, manuD444. Net sales, manuD446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade1
facturing and trade1
facturing and trade1
D440. New orders,
manufacturing1
Actual
b. Second c. First
anticianticipations
pations
(1-Q span) (1-Q span)
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span) (4-Q span)
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
60
60
60
59
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
83.3
66.7
75.0
41.7
94-4
83.3
61.1
55.6
58.3
63.9
66.7
58.3
81
80
76
72
82
85
83
80
70
74
68
66
78
79
77
76
80
84
78
76
86
83
59
60
58
58
77.8
47.2
58.3
19.4
69.4
61.1
25.0
44.4
38.9
55.6
66.7
50.0
66
64
60
55
76
71
74
74
61
56
55
56
70
66
70
66
70
66
64
62
74
73
78
76
54
54
51
50
58
56
56
54
50.0
61.1
44.4
75.0
33.3
58.3
47.2
72.2
41.7
58.3
63.9
50.0
68
76
78
85
81
63
64
66
70
71
74
80
78
70
72
74
76
78
80
86
84
48
52
53
55
55
58
58
56
44.4
50.0
(NA)
77.8
63.9
88.9
75.0
44.4
47.2
50.0
82
84
(NA)
82
86
88
88
74
76
(NA)
76
82
84
83
82
82
(NA)
83
88
90
56
58
(NA)
58
60
61
60
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
70
70
74
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
DIFFUSION INDEXES--Con.
Year
and
quarter
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade1
Sell ing prices
D460. Manufacturing
and trade1
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
71
70
70
68
66
68
66
66
84
84
85
85
66
61
62
58
62
61
64
58
62
62
62
60
64
66
(NA)
D462. Manufacturing1
Actual
D464. Wholesale trade1
D466. Retail trade1
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
78
80
80
81
82
80
82
82
75
79
78
80
85
85
86
85
79
80
80
80
91
90
90
84
84
84
86
84
82
82
78
78
80
77
80
80
78
75
79
76
78
75
87
85
86
84
77
80
82
80
86
86
85
86
80
80
81
80
60
62
65
65
80
80
71
72
78
78
78
78
74
76
68
70
76
76
75
75
85
86
73
74
80
82
82
82
86
84
73
74
80
80
80
80
61
66
66
66
74
68
74
75
72
70
72
/(NA)
68
72
72
70
80
81
(NA)
70
78
80
74
73
78
(NA)
67
74
74
74
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 471
This is a copyrighted series used "by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun ^ Bradstreet,
Inc.
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1972
85
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Efl FOREIGN TRADE
Year
and
month
500. Merchandise trade
3alance (series 502 minus
series 512)
(Mil. dol.)
1970
January
February
March . .
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles and parts
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
508. Index of export orders, 512. General imports, total
nonelectrical machinery
(1957-59=100)
+183
+267
+156
3,406
3,546
3,375
1,174
1,561
April
May
June
+148
July
August
September
+450
+245
October
November
December .
+190
(Mil. dol.)
244
1,578
252
261
3,222
3 279
3 219
3,410
3,661
3,727
1,493
1,175
1,342
261
264
257
3 262
3 337
3 265
3,704
3,591
3,553
1,258
1,357
1,674
268
259
257
3,254
3,688
3,499
3,569
1,384
1,364
1,884
229
241
239
3,498
3 428
3,402
+247
3,733
3,691
3,814
1,518
1,472
1,469
236
225
234
3,685
3 546
3,568
April
May
June
-220
-212
-350
3,528
3,776
3,662
1,394
1,242
1,503
244
237
246
3,748
3,988
A, 012
July
August
September
-300
-250
+268
3,492
3,678
4,505
1,298
1,450
1,578
239
256
244
3,793
3,928
4,237
October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
-815
-218
-270
2,708
3,160
3,858
1,475
1,281
1,766
248
262
284
3,523
3,379
4,128
-319
-598
-584
4,221
3,806
3,891
1,427
1,372
1,554
290
296
317
4,540
4,403
4,475
April
May
June
-699
-552
-590
3,760
3,914
3,905
1,337
1,340
2,085
339
327
/..A60
4,466
4,495
Juiv
August
September
-^L2
-A63
/ mq
1 7O£
?A3
T»y ~i A
Q / rj
-2-U
i i c&
4,150
2 n^A
•n^A7
i £JT\/I
4,D
October
November
December
-415
4,365
(wO
vmj
4,780
1971
January
February
March
+324
+462
+130
+71
+168
+48
+145
C~\ "2
/ 20?
_.-!
p _L , V4 f
(iwO
Urn;
1 ^Lh
1 L21
•a/Q
i cAn
4,5ol
i
// i
4,004
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
86
NOVEMBER 1972
BCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter
517. Balance
515. Balance
on goods, services, on current
account
and remittances
250. Balance
on goods and
services
521. Net
liquidity balance
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
519. Balance on
current account
and long-term
capital
530. Liquid
liabilities to all
foreigners1©
522. Official
reserve transactions balance
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1969
307
267
662
671
12
-71
331
332
-332
-592
-40
-76
-264
-2,034
-1,127
407
-1,381
-3,079
-2,074
406
1,330
980
34,930
39,043
42,655
41,759
967
989
712
548
588
610
346
133
194
168
-137
-1,251
-605
-347
-856
-1,332
-854
-765
-898
-2,793
-2,065
-1,869
-3,110
42,970
43,375
44,201
43,291
1,136
36
91
-537
781
-333
-311
-941
345
-810
-855
-1,529
-1,279
-2,999
-3,296
-1,802
-2,577
-5,721
-9,380
-4,329
-5,425
-6,466
-11,931
-5,948
45,484
51,408
60,761
64,166
r-1,188
r-1,561
p-1,100
-1,563
P-1,924
-2,164
-2,442
(NA)
-3,584
p-1,917
(NA)
r-3,115
r-2,247
P-4,531
-3,256
r-850
p-4,669
67,165
70,149
(NA)
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
882
-496
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
(NA)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
532. Liquid
and certain
nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies1©
(Mil.dol.)
534. U.S.
official
reserve
assets2®
(Mil. dol.)
535. Allocations to the
U.S. of
Special
Drawing
Rights
252. Exports
253- Imports
536. Exports
537. Imports
540. Exports
541. Imports
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
Goods and services
Merchandise, adjusted3
Income on investment, military
transactions, other serv., total
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
11,968
14,207
14,526
14,800
11,661
13,940
13,864
14,129
7,488
9,484
9,574
9,871
7,576
9,568
9,271
9,381
4,480
4,723
4,952
4,929
4,085
4,372
4,593
4,748
217
217
217
216
15,375
15,762
15,932
15,805
14,477
14,795
14,943
15,093
10,231
10,565
10,705
10,462
9,731
9,831
9,968
10,269
5,144
5,197
5,227
5,343
4,746
4,964
4,975
4,824
14,342
13,504
12,131
12,167
180
179
179
179
16,580
16,675
17,133
15,748
15,444
16,639
17,042
16,285
11,017
10,710
11,479
9,564
10,728
11,722
11,951
11,058
5,563
5,965
5,654
6,184
4,716
4,917
5,091
5,227
12,270
13,339
178
178
p!77
17,763
Pl7,347
18,937
p!8,894
(NA)
rll,791
rll,445
p!2,272
r!3,478
r!3,388
p!3,940
5,954
p5,884
(NA)
5,455
p5,502
(NA)
16,911
16,006
17,732
17,162
15,758
16,057
16,743
16,964
19,404
20,451
22,262
24,396
17,350
16,328
15,527
14,487
28,960
34,584
45,915
5
51,229
(NA)
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimates; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available; SDR indicates Special Drawing Rights. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49, 50. and 51.
1
2
3
Amount outstanding at end of quarter.
Reserve position at end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).
4
Data for first quarter 1970 through 3d quarter 1971 are not comparable with earlier data. 5See (5) on page 88.
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1972
87
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Income on Investments, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)
542. U.S. invest- 543. Foreign
investments in
ments abroad
the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
Transportation and other services
Military transactions
Travel
Income on investments
545. Payments 546. Sales under 547. Military
544. Receipts
expenditures
from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military conabroad ®
tracts
elers in the U.S. abroad
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dot)
(Mil. dol.)
548. Receipts
from
(Mil.dol.)
549. Payments
for
(Mil.dol.)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1970
2,472
2,586
2,706
2,775
929
1,078
1,242
1,315
498
518
519
523
829
853
865
860
407
328
441
336
1,198
1,187
1,221
1,251
1,103
1,291
1,286
1,295
1,129
1,254
1,265
1,322
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
2,936
2,779
2,863
2,850
1,344
1,322
1,284
1,217
556
574
590
599
936
998
1,027
1,012
273
441
329
436
1,180
1,259
1,210
1,203
1,379
1,403
1,445
1,458
1,286
1,385
1,454
1,392
2,937
3,297
3,015
3,651
1,139
1,106
1,304
1,356
589
590
613
665
1,030
1,082
1,053
1,129
510
516
474
423
1,175
1,214
1,198
1,230
1,527
1,562
1,552
1,445
1,372
1,515
1,536
1,512
3,249
P3,237
(NA)
1,387
Pl,397
(NA)
653
P614
1,188
pi,236
334
P322
(NA)
1,218
pl,232
(NA)
1,718
pl,741
(NA)
1,662
pl,637
(NA)
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
(NA)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)
Securities investments
561. U.S. investments 564. Foreign purchases 565. U.S. purchases
abroad
of U.S. securities
of foreign securities
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
575. Banking and
other capital transactions, net
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
246
164
152
270
926
999
899
430
1,388
365
396
963
365
499
506
125
-855
-1,337
-1,308
-639
-171
-330
214
-273
491
104
245
190
1,279
1,229
882
1,010
304
374
720
792
210
-93
488
337
-1,243
-340
-900
-1,198
-344
-20
19
29
124
1
-374
181
1,290
1,277
1,410
788
559
196
606
921
361
372
249
-73
-1,270
-1,211
-1,249
-892
-961
-533
-2,067
-1,160
-360
P346
(NA)
1,266
p200
(NA)
1,067
940
p655
393
344
p-242
-806
P-796
(N/0
-1,393
p705
(NA)
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"6", estimated; "a", anticipated; and^NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
5
For series 532, page 87: Data for 4th quarter reflect increases resulting from revaluations under the Smithsonian Agreement
of December 18, 1971, the inclusion of new reporting banks, and the reclassification of certain accounts previously classified as
"official institutions." The figure for the 4th quarter 1971, on the old basis, is $51,806.
NOVEMBER 1972
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Qj FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Defense Indicators
Receipts and Expend tures
Year
and
month
600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (-), najonal income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1970
January
February
March
601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
264. National
602. Federal
expenditures,
defense purnational income chases
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
647. New or648. New orders, defense ders, defense
products indus- products
tries
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
(Mil. dol.)
-3*8
192*.2
195 ".9
78.*9
7,045
6,516
6,519
1,807
1,523
1,669
3.45
3.59
3.53
1.38
1.91
1,80
2,855
2,623
2,904
April
May
June
-13 '.4
194*.2
207'.$
74.7
6,643
6,118
6,505
1,559
1,486
1,771
3.37
3.60
3.42
1.80
1,78
1,75
2,591
2,545
2,896
July
August
September
-14*. 7
190.9
...
205.6
73.8
7,111
6,035
6,407
1,825
1,332
1,542
4.18
3.67
3.19
2,05
1,78
1,92
2,717
2,782
2,113
October
November
December
-19*.7
189^1
208 '.8
72.9
6,251
7,166
7,195
1,459
1,902
1,912
3.12
3.81
3.97
1,81
1,67
1,79
3,464
2,746
3,181
-16*. 0
196*.4
212.4
72.5
7,055
6,928
6,793
2,038
2,010
1,528
3.85
3.25
3.28
2-16
2,27
1.68
2,508
2,619
3,398
April
May
June
-23.0
198*. 2
221 ".2
71.2
6,991
6,257
5,830
1,686
1,457
1,340
3.50
3.23
3.63
1,72
1.55
1,66
2,751
2,112
2,367
July
August
September
199*. 1
222 ".2
70*. i
7,960
6,696
5,470
2,577
1,672
1,127
4.25
3.63
3.02
2c04
-23*.l
2,02
1,63
3,082
3,078
2,769
October
November
December
-24 '.7
202 '.8
227 '.5
7l'.9
7,156
6,753
7,656
2,001
1,700
2,096
3.25
3.95
3.69
1.84
2.00
1,72
2,392
3,209
3,016
1972
January
February
March
• •*
-14.8
221*4
236*3
76.7
7,738
7,872
7,220
2,634
1,994
1,817
3.79
3.45
3.48
2.58
1.77
1.82
3,690
2,937
3,382
April
May
June
-21." 6
224^9
246.5
78*.6
7,034
6,619
6,653
1,518
1,247
1,585
3.50
(NA)
1*96
1.53
2.94
2,771
2,659
3,360
juiv
August
September
7,534
2,213
1.52
-11 ! 6
p230.0
r241.6
r75.1
(NA)
(NA)
1.51
1971
January .
February
March
October
November
December
r2.24
3,183
2,641
2,498
pl.85
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
HCII
NOVEMBER 1972
89
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
QH PRICE MOVEMENTS
Year
and
month
Fixed weighted price index,
gross private product
211. Index
(1958=100)
1970
January .
February . .
March
128 ! 6
April
May
June
130.0
July ..
August.
September
131 !i
October. . .
November ... .
December
1971
January
February
March
132! 9
134! 7
April . .
May .. .
June ..
136! 2
July
August
September
137.4
October . . .November
December
1972
January
February
March
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Juiv
August
September
141*3
782. Food
All items
781. Index ®
78 lc. Change
over i-month
span 1
(1967=100)
(Percent)
78 lc. Change
over 6-month
span 1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967=100)
783. Commodities less
food
784. Services®
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
4.7
113.3
113.9
114.5
0.5
0.6
0.4
6.7
6.4
5.9
113.6
114.4
114.4
110.2
110.6
110.8
117.1
118.0
119.3
4.6
115.2
115.7
116.3
0.5
0.4
0.4
5.5
4.8
5.1
114.7
115.0
134.9
111.5
112.0
112.4
120.1
120.7
121.4
3.3
116.7
116.9
117.5
0.3
0.3
0.6
5.0
4.9
5.0
115.0
115.1
115.6
112.6
112.9
113.5
122.0
122.7
123.5
5.5
118.1
118.5
119.1
0.5
0.4
0.4
5.0
4.9
4.1
115.6
115.7
115.5
114.0
114.5
115.3
124.1
124.9
125.6
5.5
119.2
119.4
119.8
0.3
0.2
0.2
3.6
3.9
3.8
115.6
116.2
117.2
115.4
115.5
115.7
126.3
126.6
126.6
4.6
120.2
120.8
121.5
0.3
0.5
0.4
3.8
4.0
3.9
117.9
118.3
118.8
115.9
116.6
116.9
126.8
127.5
128.2
3.5
121.8
122.1
122.2
0.3
0.3
0.1
3.7
3.0
2.8
119.0
119.3
119.0
117.1
117.5
117.5
128.8
129.3
129.8
1.7
122.4
122.6
123.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
2.9
3-4
3.1
118.9
119.8
120.5
117.5
117.5
117.7
129.9
130.3
130.7
4.5
123.2
123.8
124.0
0.3
0.6
0.0
3.2
3.5
2.9
120.4
122.6
122.6
117,9
118.2
118.4
131.5
131.8
132.1
2.4
124.3
124.7
125.0
0.2
0.3
0.1
3.2
2.5
3.4
122.5
122.4
122.6
118.6
119.2
119.2
132.4
132.7
133.1
r2.9
125.5
125.7
126.2
0.4
0.2
0.5
1.8
123.3
123.9
124.7
119.5
119.9
120.4
133.5
133.8
134.1
126.6
0.3
124.9
120.3
134.6
139*. 5
140.3
October
November
December
21lc. Change
over l-quarter
spans 1
137.9
April .
May
June
Consumer price indexes
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
•"•Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the latest month, l-quarter changes are placed on
1st month of the 2nd quarter, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
90
NOVEMBER
1972
ItCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q[ PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con.
Wholesale price indexes
Year
and
month
750. All
commodities ®
58. Manufactured goods®
751. Processed
foods and feeds
752. Farm
products
Industrial commodities
55. Index®
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
55c. Change
over l-month
spans *
(1967=100)
55c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Percent)
1970
January
February
March
109.3
109.7
109.9
108.8
109.1
109.3
111.9
112.0
112.1
113.1
113.2
113.5
108.3
108.7
108.9
0.3
0.2
0.2
3,7
3.8
April
May
June
109.9
110.1
110.3
109.6
109.7
110.0
112.4
111.2
111.0
111.6
109.8
109.5
109.3
109.7
109.8
0.4
0.4
0.2
3.6
3.6
3.6
July
August
September
110.9
110.5
111.0
110.6
110.6
110.8
in. 7
112.3
112.7
111,2
109.4
113.6
110.0
110.2
110.4
0.3
0.2
0.2
4.1
3.5
3.5
October
November
December
1971
January
February . .
March
111.0
110.9
111.0
111.2
111.2
111.2
112.5
112.6
111.4
110.3
108.9
107.7
111.3
111.3
111.7
0.6
0.2
0.3
3.6
3.5
3.6
111.8
112.8
113.0
111.8
112.4
112.7
111.8
113.2
113.9
109.4
113.0
111.5
112.2
112.5
112.8
0.3
0.1
0.3
3.2
3.8
4.0
April
May
June
113.3
113.8
114.3
113.0
113.5
113.8
114.0
114.5
114.3
112.8
112,4
113.8
113.3
113.7
113.9
0.4
0.5
0.3
4.6
5.4
4.7
July
August
September
114.6
1H.9
114. 5
114.5
114.9
114.7
114.4
114.7
114-4
111,4
114.2
112.2
114.5
115.1
115.0
0.6
0.5
-0.1
3.4
2.7
2.5
October....
November
December
1972
January
February
March
114.4
114.5
115.4
114.5
114.5
115.1
114.9
115. 4
116.6
114.0
114.0
116.5
115.0
114.9
115.3
-0.2
0.1
0.2
2.0
1.7
2.4
116.3
117.3
117.4
115.7
116.5
116.7
117.2
118.7
118.8
118.4
119.7
118.2
115.9
116.5
116.8
0.4
0.4
0.3
3.6
4.1
4.5
April
May
June
117.5
118.2
118.8
116.9
117.4
117.8
118.2
118.6
119.0
118.9
120.5
121.7
117.3
117.6
117.9
0.4
0.4
0.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
juiy
August
September
119.7
119.9
120.2
118.3
118.5
118.8
119.8
120.3
121.6
125.7
129.4
130.6
0.2
0.4
0.2
3.0
October
November
December
120.0
118.8
122.7
128.6
118.1
118.5
118.7
118.8
3.7
-0.1
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.
Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e" f estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
1 m nth percent changes are placed on the 2nd month and
"°
ito
NOVEMBER 1972
changes
91
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
859. Real
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
spendable
private nonfarm economy
avg. wkly.
earnings
Current dollar compensation
Real earnings
nonagri.prod.
ornonsupv.
741c. Change 741c. Change workers
745. Index
745c. Change 745c. Change
over 1-month
over 6-month
over 1 -quarter over4-quarter
2
2
spans
spans
spans
spans 2
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967 dol.) (1967=100)
(Percent)
percent)
percent)
Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adj.1
Year
and
month
Current dollar earnings
740. Index
(1967=100)
740c. Change 740c. Change 741. Index
over 1-month over 6-month
spans2
spans3
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967=100)
1970
January
February
March
117.4
118.0
118.9
0.3
0.5
0.8
5.9
5.6
6.2
103.5
103.4
103.7
-0.2
-0.1
-0.8
-0.7
0.3
April
May
June
119.3
119.9
120.6
0.3
0.5
0.6
7.0
7.5
7.3
103.5
103.6
103.8
-0.2
July
August
September
121.4
122.4
123.1
0.7
0.8
0.6
7.1
7.3
7.3
104.2
104.7
104.8
October
November
December
123.5
124.2
124.9
0.3
0.6
0.6
7.6
7.2
6.6
104.6
104.8
105.0
1971
January . . .
February
March
126.0
126.7
127.1
0.9
0.6
0.3
7.6
7.8
7.2
April
May
June
128.1
128.9
129.4
0.8
0.6
0.4
July
August
September
130.1
130.8
131.4
October
November
December
1972
6.2
119.7
0.3
90.55
90.33
90.44
0.1
0.2
1.4
2.6
2.0
89.99
89.64
89.81
121.8
0.4
0.5
0.1
2.0
2.3
2.2
90.26
90.56
89.60
124.5
0.2
0.2
2.5
2.2
2.4
89.40
89.56
89.67
126 !6
105.5
105.9
106.0
0.5
0.4
0.1
3.8
3.7
3.3
91.27
91.53
92.05
128^8
6.6
6.6
6.9
106.6
106.7
106.7
0.6
0.1
0.0
2.7
2.5
2.9
92.30
92.34
92.44
131 !i
0.5
0.5
0.5
5.9
4-5
6.7
106.9
107.2
107.5
0.2
0.3
0.3
2.1
1.5
3.7
92.21
92.36
92.72
132 .*7
131.8
131.8
133.6
0.3
0.0
1.4
7.2
6.2
6.3
107.7
107.5
108.6
0.2
-0.2
4.2
2.8
3.1
93.03
93.08
93.75
134-4
January
February
March
134.6
134.8
135.5
0.7
0.1
0.5
7.6
7.6
5.2
109.1
108.7
109.2
-0.4
4-3
4.0
2.2
95.09
95.24
95.69
137.3
April
May
June
136.7
136.7
137.1
0.9
0.0
0.3
4.8
110.0
109.6
109.8
1.6
-0.4
96.69
95.69
96.10
138.9
July
August
September
137.8
138.3
r!39.2
0.5
0.4
14o! 8
October
November .
December
p!40.2
•
r5.3
r5.5
-0.2
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.2
r2.7
r2.0
0.2
0.1
pl-4
rO.7
110.0
110.1
rllO.3
rO.2
96.16
r96.39
r96.88
pO.7
pllO.8
pO.5
P97.27
P5.2
7!8
7.2
6.9.
9.2
7*.6
5.1
7*.6
9.0
6.6
7.2
6.6
5.1
6.6
5.1
5.9
9.0
6.1
4.7
r5.9
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
^Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Percent changes are. centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the latest month, 1-quarter changes are placed on
the 1st month of the 2nd quarter, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle
month of the 3rd quarter.
92
NOVEMBER 1972
ltd*
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Qj WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY--Con.
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy-Con.
Year
and
month
Real compensation
746. Index
(1967=100)
1970
January
February
March
-0.1
105 !i
April
May
June
105.2
July
August
September
106 ! 4
October .
November ... .
December
106.3
108.8
4.5
(Ann. rate,
percent)
8.0
108, 5
12.7
5.4
10.6
P9.3
p8.1
1.6
P7.3
p7.0
July
August
September
r2.1
rll2.*0
p8.6
103.. 9
2,7
105.8
4.1
106.6
3.2
107 ."3
4.2
108.5
r4.5
109.9
6.2
112.2
111.4
3.*6
3.9
110.5
....
April
May
June
104.7
3.7
1094
2.9
4.1
3.2
8.7
2.7
103.0
2.2
107.6
15.0
1.9
7.5
8.2
*3.0
101 '.B
-1.9
107.0
11.5
2.2
6.9
8.5
3.0
(1967=100)
-1.3
105.1
10.6
(Ann. rate,
percent)
4.3
7.5
2.2
11Q.9
(Ann. rate,
percent)
105.6
10.6
2.7
102,* 8
11.6
3.1
109^5
(1967=100)
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
770c. Change 770c. Change nonfarm
over 1-quarter
over 4-quarter
spans I
spans 1
103 ".9
16.0
1.0
770. Index
10.9
2^6
2.7
October
November
December
1972
October
November
December
16.3
5.6
July
August
September
749. Average
changes over
life of
contract
1.2
107.8
108.5
(Ann. rate,
percent)
11.3
-0.3
April
May
June
748. First
year average changes
1^9
0.7
1971
January
February
March . . .
January
February
March
746c. Change 746c. Change
over 1 -quarter over 4-quarter
spans1
spans1
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
percent)
percent)
Output per man-hour, total
private economy
Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries®
p7.6
iiio
r^.l
rl!3.3
r 113.1
. .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; a p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter and 4-quarter
changes are placed on the middle month of the 3rd quarter.
BCII
NOVEMBER 1972
93
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
0 CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Unemployment rates
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month
841. Total
(Thous.)
842. Employed
(Thous.)
843. Unemployed
(Thous.)
844. Males
20 years and
over
845. Females
20 years and
over
(Percent)
(Percent)
846. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age
(Percent)
847. White
(Percent)
848. Negro
and other
races
(Percent)
1970
January
February
March
82,061
82,187
82,652
78,853
78,752
79,018
3,208
3,435
3,634
2.5
2.8
2.9
3.7
4.1
4.5
13.6
13.5
13.6
3.6
3.8
4.0
6.5
7.1
7.2
April
May
June
82,769
82,504
82,388
78,908
78,514
78,412
3,861
3,990
3,976
3.2
3.4
3.4
4.4
4.9
4.6
15.2
14.3
15.1
4.2
4.5
4.4
8.2
8.0
8.5
July
August
September
82,804
82,769
82,945
78,631
78,514
78,448
4,173
4,255
4,497
3.7
3.7
3.9
4.9
4.8
5.1
14.4
15.8
16.5
4.7
4.7
5.0
8.2
8.5
8.7
October
November . . .
December
83,266
83,418
83,485
78,678
78,543
78,427
4,588
4,870
5,058
4.0
4.2
4.5
5.1
5.6
5.7
16.7
17.2
17.6
5.1
5-4
5.6
9.0
9.0
9.6
January
February
March
83,730
83,361
83,455
78,718
78,475
78,446
5,012
4,886
5,009
4.3
4.3
4.3
5.7
5.6
5.8
17.5
16.9
17.5
5.5
5-4
5.5
9.5
9.6
9.5
April
May
June
83,788
83,986
83,401
78,732
78,830
78,600
5,056
5,156
4,801
4.4
4.5
4.3
5.9
5.9
5.6
17.0
17.4
16.2
5.6
5.6
5.3
July
August
September
83,930
84,313
84,491
79,014
79,199
79.451
4,916
5,114
5,040
4.3
4.5
4.5
5.7
5.8
5.7
16.5
17.1
16.9
5.4
5.6
5.4
10.0
October
November
December
84,750
85,116
85,225
79,832
80,020
80,098
4,918
5,096
5,127
4.3
4.4
4.3
5.5
5.8
5.8
16.7
16.7
17.3
5.3
5.6
5-4
10.4
January
February
March
85,707
85,535
86,313
80,636
80,623
81,241
5,071
4,912
5,072
4.2
4.0
4.1
5.5
5.0
5.4
17.8
18.8
17.9
5.3
5.1
5.3
10.6
10.5
10.5
April
May
June
86,284
86,486
86,395
81,205
81,394
81,667
5,079
5,092
4,728
4.3
4.3
4.0
5.4
5.9
5.5
17.3
15.7
14.5
5.4
5.3
5.0
10.7
July
August
September
86,467
86,860
87,049
81,682
81,973
82,222
4,785
4,887
4,827
3.9
3.9
3.8
5.7
5.5
5.4
14.8
16.9
16.5
5.0
5.1
5.0
10.2
October
November
December
87,276
82,482
4,794
3.9
5.5
15.3
5.0
10.1
1971
9.8
10.5
9.4
9.9
10.4
9.4
10.4
1972
9.6
9.4
9.9
9.7
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; a p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 60,
94
NOVEMBER 1972
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
g| ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
Year
and
quarter
207. Gap (potential less actual)
Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
206. Potential level1
205. Actual value
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1969
First Quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
722. 4
717.2
725.8
729.2
724.3
731.4
-5.2
-1.5
+2.2
725.1
738.6
+13.5
720.4
723.2
726.8
746.4
754.3
762.3
770.4
+26.0
778.5
786.7
+46.6
+48.8
+52.6
+49.0
1970
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
718.0
+31.1
+35.5
+52.4
1971
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third Quarter
Fourth quarter
731.9
737.9
742.5
754.5
795.1
803.5
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
766.5
783.9
r796.1
812.0
820.6
829.3
+45.5
+36.7
r+33.2
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.
Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 61.
""Based on a trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4-th quarter
1962, 3.75 percent from 4-th quarter 1962 to the 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and 4.3
percent from 4-th quarter 1969 to 3rd quarter 1972.
NOVEMBER 1972
95
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
KEj ANALYTICAL RATIOS
850. Ratio,
output to capacity, manufacturing
Year
and
month
851. Ratio,
inventories
to sales, manufacturing
and trade
(Percent)
(Ratio)
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers1
durable goods
industries
(Ratio)
853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer
goods
(1967=100)
854. Ratio,
personal saving to disposable personal
income
(Ratio)
860. Ratio,
help-wanted
advertising
to persons
unemployed1
857. Vacancy rate in
total rental
housing ®
(Ratio)
(Percent)
1970
January
February
March
8o!8
1.61
1.61
1.62
3.12
3.08
3.10
95.2
94.5
94.8
0.069
1.011
0.945
0.844
5^4
April
May
June
79.*8
1.64
1.62
1.62
3.09
3.00
3.00
93.7
92.7
92.0
0.081
0.763
0.709
0.689
$'.l
July
August
September
7S*.3
1.63
1.63
1.64
2.93
2.92
2.86
91.4
91.4
91.1
0.083
0.649
0.623
0.563
5. *3
October
November
December
74^2
1.67
1.70
1.67
2.89
2.92
2.88
88.9
88.9
87.0
0.084
0.500
0.477
0.471
5. *2
75^6
1.65
1.63
1.62
2.90
2.88
2.80
84.2
85.3
84.1
0.082
0.445
0.469
0.463
5^3
75 .'6
1.61
1.60
1.59
2.76
2.67
2.58
83.3
82.4
82.3
0.086
0.459
0.456
0.515
5.*3
74-.'?
1.61
1.53
1.60
2.62
2.71
2.68
83.5
84.1
84.1
0.081
0.515
0.495
0.473
5.*6
1.61
1-57
1.58
2.65
2.60
2.57
84.2
83.0
83.1
0.078
0.484
0.473
0.494
5.*6
1971
January
February
March .
April . .
May .
June
. .
July
August
September
October
November
December
74.6
• ••
1972
January
February
March
75.3
1.55
1.56
1.53
2.55
2.54
2.51
83.0
83,5
84.7
0.072
0.499
0.527
0.528
5!3
April
May
June
77*. I
1.52
1.51
1.52
2. 46
2.47
2. 58
83.0
83.9
83.9
0.064
0.545
0.544
0.605
5^5
1.51
1.49
pl.50
2.58
r78.0
r2.54
p2.57
r83.7
r84.1
r84.2
0.064
0.641
0.646
p0.6ll
5*.8
(NA)
(M)
July
August
September
October
November
December
P85.0
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "rn indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 62.
1
Beginning with January 1972, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for computing the unemployment component of this series.
Prior to January 1972, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark.
96
NOVEMBER 1972
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
Dl. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing (21
industries)
1-month
span
1970
January
February
March
31.0
19.0
28.6
April
May
June
26.2
28.6
59.5
July
August
September
69.0
19.0
11.9
October
November
December
9-month
span
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
(35 industries)
1-month
span
9-month
span
OIL Newly approved
capital appropriations,
The Conference Board
(17 industries) 1
1-quarter
span
3-quarter
span
D34. Profits,
D23. Index of industrial
D19. Index of stock
mfg.,
prices, 500 common 2
materials prices (13
FNCB
industrial materials)
(about 1,000 stocks (75 industries)©
corporations)
1-quarter
span
1-month
span
50
29
51
.. •
43.3
23.3
82.7
37.1
37.1
48.6
47
29
47
16.4
42.9
50.0
68.6
35
19.0
45.2
51.4
40.0
60.0
78.6
66.7
59.5
40.5
54.8
50.0
20.0
58.6
60.0
54.3
62.9
57.1
1971
January
February
March
69.0
31.0
78.6
73.8
83.3
81.0
57.1
60.0
57.1
Apri 1
May
June
45.2
73.8
54.8
76.2
64-3
66.7
July
August
September
54-8
35.7
19.0
October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
. .
....
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
9.5
11.9
21.4
11.9
11.9
42.9
62.9
51.4
40.0
20.0
51.4
55.7
57.1
28.6
2.7
9-month
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
5.5
5.6
5.6
50.0
30.8
57.7
61.5
42.3
38.5
6.9
61.5
53.8
19.2
34.6
34.6
38.5
47.9
25.0
27.8
29
52
41.7
77.8
96.5
31.9
46.5
72.2
46.2
42.3
46.2
19.2
15.4
15.4
a
24
40
72.2
48.6
98.6
95.8
97.2
98.6
30.8
42.3
19.2
15.4
30.8
46.2
67.1
65.7
8Q.O
53
29
59
95.8
87.5
71.5
98.6
95.1
91.0
46.2
61.5
80.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
57.1
60.0
58.6
81.4
68.6
71.4
35
53
60
84.0
41.7
27.8
97.2
77.8
56.9
80.8
38.5
46.2
61.5
69.2
69.2
73.8
88.1
73.8
50.0
64.3
35.7
77.1
62.9
85.7
76
41
60
44.4
23.6
71.5
31.9
43.1
44.4
57.7
61.5
53.8
53.8
53.8
46.2
81.0
78.6
64.3
83.3
85.7
95.2
54.3
64.3
51.4
82.9
91.4
91.4
47
82
48
••.
• ••
18.1
95.8
50.7
59.7
65.3
46.2
34.6
61.5
53.8
80.8
84.6
31.0
83.3
45.2
83.3
88.1
88.1
57.1
57.1
74.3
85.7
65
82
63
91.4
84.3
89.6
70.1
76.4
62.5
59.0
68.1
65.4
73.1
76.9
76.9
76.9
84.6
88.1
r85.7
rSl.O
pSl.O
62.9
42.9
48.6
r76
P88
65
71.5
21.5
43.1
84.7
67.6
43.7
65.4
76.9
73.1
92.3
r88.6
p88.6
r58
61.5
65.4
50.0
"373.1
0.0
88.1
26.2
9.5
9.5
85.7
...
2.8
r71.4
r54-8
r57.1
30.6
76.4
33.8
P40.5
p60.0
33.8
42.9
68.6
P47
61.5
3
65.4
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are
placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes.are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed
on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the
index. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The *r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 63.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not "be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board.
2
Based on 75 components through March 1970, on 73 components through May 1970, on 72 components through August 1972, and on
71 components thereafter. Component data are not shown in table fi4 but are available from the source agency.
3
Average for November 6 and 14.
BCII NOVEMBER 1972
97
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
month
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Leading Indicators-Con.
D5. Initial claims for
D41. Number of employees
unemployment insurance,
on nonagricultural payrolls
State programs, week in(30 industries)
cluding the 12th (47 areas)1
1- month
span
9-month
span
1970
1-month
span
6-month
span
(2)
(2)
D47. Index of industrial
production (24 industries)
1-month
span
6-month
span
D58. Index of wholesale
prices (22 manufacturing
industries)®
1-month
span
6-month
span
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month
span
9-month
span
(3)
January
February
March
31.9
25.5
44.7
4.3
2.1
11.7
40.0
41.7
36.7
33.3
31.7
28.3
12.5
62.5
31.2
33.3
31.2
29.2
86.4
77.3
72.7
79.5
77.3
75.0
60.9
58.7
50.0
78.3
82.6
82.6
April
May
June
25.5
63.8
42.6
6.4
12.8
2.1
26.7
20.0
26.7
25.0
18.3
16.7
58.3
33-3
37.5
54.2
33.3
50.0
68.2
68.2
56.8
77.3
84.1
86.4
82.6
54.3
39.1
91.3
82.6
82.6
July
August
September
59.6
42.6
31.9
12.8
25.5
55.3
33.3
25.0
55.0
16.7
20.0
20.0
58.3
41.7
33.3
33.3
33.3
35.4
61.4
70.5
77.3
75.0
81.8
77.3
56.5
65.2
50.0
78.3
69.6
67.4
October
November
December
53.2
57.4
70.2
55.3
51.1
46.8
31.7
38.3
58.3
25.0
31.7
33.3
33-3
33.3
50.0
37.5
41.7
43.8
75.0
61.4
56.8
72.7
81.8
81.8
67.4
54-3
47.8
56.5
78.3
91.3
1971
January
February
March
38.3
61.7
42.6
46.8
61.7
72.3
51.7
41.7
40.0
48.3
65.0
46.7
54-2
50.0
41.7
70.8
70.8
72.9
79.5
75.0
72.7
77.3
81.8
81.8
43.5
65.2
73.9
80.4
87.0
April
May
June
48.9
44.7
40.4
57.4
21.3
48.9
76.7
80.0
33.3
33.3
46.7
65.0
79.2
58.3
56.2
62.5
64.6
75.0
68.2
72.7
72.7
90.9
95.5
86.4
73.9
52.2
73.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July.. .
August. . . .
September
57.4
25.5
46.8
42.6
57.4
63.8
41.7
55.0
91.7
58.3
55.0
56.7
52.1
45.8
75.0
62.5
66.7
62.5
86.4
90.9
38.6
86.4
72.7
77.3
(NA)
87.0
39.1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
October...November
December
1972
January
February
....
March
57.4
66.0
59.6
70.2
74.5
57.4
51.7
60.0
48.3
78.3
90.G
73.3
58.3
60.4
54.2
70.8
87.5
87.5
25.0
45.5
68.2
75.0
77.3
86.4
47.8
78.3
37.0
(NA)
(NA)
91.3
42.6
46.8
59.6
68.1
63.8
76.6
rSO.O
r68.3
r91.7
r91.7
83.3
r86.7
70.8
70.8
66.7
^5.8
87.5
87.5
86.4
90.9
79.5
90.9
95.5
95.5
.45.7
71.7
87.0
100.0
91.3
100.0
April
May
June
55.3
36.2
53.2
78.7
57.4
70.2
78.3
78.3
79.2
50.0
64.6
83.3
r83.3
r91.7
77.3
90.9
79.5
95.5
100.0
100.0
47.8
69.6
37.0
r89.1
r91.3
Juiv
August
September
66.0
66.0
46.8
52.1
r79.2
r72.9
p87.5
79.5
75.0
81.8
90.9
r83*3
r75.0
69.6
r76.1
r26.1
October
November
December
59.6
P88.3
p70.8
85.0
r6.8.3
r8l.7
r80.0
28.3
p83.3
68.2
(NA)
P95.7
plOO.O
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: l-month indexes are
placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed in the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The "i* indicates revised; ap", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by®.
Graphs
of these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
1
Component data are not available for publication and therefore are not shown in table E4.
2
Data entered for 1972 are not strictly comparable with earlier data, See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii
of the October 1972 issue.
Data beginning with August 1971 are not comparable with earlier data due to a revised sample.
98
NOVEMBER 1972
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1972
Diffusion index components
April
March
June
May
July
September 1 *
August
October P
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(Average weekly hours)
All manufacturing industries
o
40.4 +
(45)
40.8
40.5
(88)
(0)
+
40.7
40.6
(88)
(26)
o
40.6
+
(71)
40.7 o
(55)
40.7
(40)
Durable goods industries:
40.8
42.4 +
41.1 +
40.4 +
r42.7
41-2 +
40.5 o
41.9
41.4
40.5 +
41.6
40.7
40.6
+
+
42.0
41-4 o
41.9 o
41.4 +
r41.9
r41.5 +
41.8 +
42.0 +
42.1
42.7
41.1 +
41.8 +
41.2 +
42.1
41.3
42.0 +
r41.2
r42.3 +
41.0 o
42.4
41.0
42.0
+
r40.5 +
41.2 +
40.7 _
41.6 +
40.4
41.7
40.6 +
39.5 o
40.8 +
39.5
40.9
39.2
40.1 +
34.1 +
40.6
36.2
42.0 +
40.9 +
40.4 +
42.2
41.1
40.7
42.0
41.0
40.5
+
o
+
42.0 o
41.1 +
42.0
a. 4
41.8
41.3
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
o
40.9 +
41-4 +
41-4
41-9
Electrical equipment and supplies
Transportation equipment
o 41.7
40.2
+
+
40.8
43.0
40.4
+
40.3
39.2
+
+
40.7
39.6
40.6
39.4
+
+
40.6 +
34-5 -
40.7
34.1
+
41.4 +
35.8 +
Printing and publishing . 0
+
o
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
+
Stone clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
o
42.0 +
+
a. 2
40.5
41.6
40.3
41.3
+
40.6
39.5
40.4
39.3
40.4
33.7
+
+
40.5
34.2 +
40.4
34-3 +
41.7
36.2
41.2
35.6
+
+
41.3
35.9 +
41.2 +
36.0 o
41.3 +
r36.0 +
41.3
41.4 36.2 . 36.1
42.7 +
37.6 +
42.9
38.0
42.5
37.7
+
+
43.0
37.9 +
42.8 +
38.0 -
r43.0
r37.9 +
42.9
38.2 -
42.6
37.9
o
o
41.8 42.2 +
a. 7
42.4
41.6
42.0
+
+
42.0
42.2
41.8
41.6
+
r41.7 o
r41.8 +
a. 7 +
42.4 _
41.8
42.1
o
41.0 +
38.2 +
41.3
39.1
41.0
38.6
+
o
41.3
38.6
40.9
38.4
+
+
41.4
r39.0
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
a. 9
+
+
Nondurable goods industries:
Tobacco manufactures
Appa rel and other textile products
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c
Leather and leather products
„
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
+
33,328 +
(74)
Percent rising of 35 components
34,005 +
(63)
34,302 +
(43)
Primary metals
......
Fabricated metal products
+
+
5,243 3,420 -
4,999 +
3,401 -
5,339 +
3,373 +
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
. .. .
+
+
5,574 +
4,694 +
5,654 +
4,833 +
5,668 +
4,841 -
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries
+
7,512 +
6,885 +
8,111
7,007 +
7,867 +
7,214
40.3
35.4
5,442
3,505 5,923
4,775
8,781 7,187 -
41.0
38.0
36,851 -
36,633
2
35,613 - r34,430 + r35,727 +
(49)
41.1
38.6
(43)
(69)
(57)
(60)
5,426 +
3,501 +
5,967
3,556 +
5,859 3,691 -
5,656
3,459
5,728 +
4,621 +
5,853 +
4,778 +
6,006 +
5,025 +
6,240
5,137
r8,181 +
6,973 +
r8,302 +
7,271 +
8,758 +
7,512 -
8,998
7,143
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA = not available, p = preliminary. r= revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are all included in the
totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here.
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1972
99
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1972
Diffusion index components
March
April
June
May
July
August
September
October
+ 124.8
+ 128.1
November 1
023. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL-MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price
index (1967=100)
+
117.2 + 119.5
+ 124.3
- 123.8 - 123.7 + 124.6
+ 129.4
(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components
Copper scrap (Ib)
<>
Lead scrap (Ib )
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (Ib)
Zinc(lb )
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 12-market average ....
Print cloth (yd ) average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.)
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
(77)
+
.461
+
.063
+ 35.130
+ 1.814
+ .173
.218
+
+
+
+
+
.363
.281
1.128
.261
17.837
.169
.057
(65)
o
+
+
+
.430
.063
36.998
1.799
.176
.227
+ .383
+ .292
- 1.126
+ .273
+ 18.419
.163
+
.061
(77)
(62)
(73)
(62)
(50)
(65)
.447
.439 +
+
.441 + .445
.060
.061
+ .065 o .065
- 34.213 + 35.282 + 38.793 + 40.469
- 1.790 + 1.796 - 1.793 + 1.802
.181
.179
+
.179 + .180 +
.199
209
.194
.224
.336
.359
.375
+
-395
+ .307 o .307 + .317 + .324
+ 1.683 + 1.738 + 1.743 + 1.751
+ .285 + .321 + .354 + .379
+ 18.661 + 18.831 + 18.996 + 19.083
.171 +
.174
+ .169 + .170 +
.063 + .065 o .065
+ .063 o
+
o
-
.440
.059
36.929
1.826
.179
.187
+
+
+
+
+
.291
.333
1.868
.396
18.850
.181
.069
+
(65)
+
o
o
-
.446
.056
39.707
1.826
.179
.184
+ .449
o .056
+ 40.340
- 1.716
o .179
- .177
+
+
+
+
+
.271
.342
1.962
.483
18.549
.207
.073
+
+
+
+
+
.289
.344
1.976
.494
19.560
.201
o
.073
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 3
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls . . . + 72,011 + 72,246 + 72,592 + 72,699 Percent rising of 30 components
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries.
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical ......
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products. . .
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products. .
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c. .
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities. .
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate. . . .
Service
Federal government
State and local government
(83)
(78)
(68)
(78)
+
92
o
524
o
402
+
526
+
978
+ 1,049
+ 1,223
+ 1,223
+ 1,257
+
273
329
- 1,182
o
63
+
868
- 1,166
+
539
+
658
+
580
o
117
+
483
+
266
+
+
+
+
95
526
405
528
973
1,053
1,233
1,237
1,241
276
332
72,661 + r72,984
(28)
+
+
+
o
96
527
409
528
966
- 1,049
- 1,231
- 1,233
+ 1,245
o
276
329
(75)
(83)
+
97
+
r528
+
r4H
+
530
+
r988
+ 1,056
+ rl,242
+ rl,236
- rl,243
+
r279
+
332
o
89
+
520
+
399
+
519
+
956
+ 1,028
o 1,189
+ 1,205
+ 1,229
o
266
+
329
+ 1,186
+
63
+
86^
- 1,164
+
529
+
655
575
o
117
+
473
+
261
+
91
+
524
+
402
o
519
+
965
+ 1,038
+ 1,200
+ 1,214
+ 1,252
+
269
+
331
o 1,186
o
63
+
865
+ 1,173
+
531
+
656
o
575
o
117
+
478
+
262
+
614
+ 3,512
+
4,487
+ 3,883
+ 11,625
+
3,885
+ 12,139
2,667
+ 10,514
600
599 +
604
605
3,550 3,489 +
3,535 +
3,493 +
4,490 o 4,491 - 4,481 +
4,473 +
+
3,894 + 3,914 + 3,926 - 3,913 +
+ 11,667 + 11,718 + 11,756 + 11,779 +
3,927 +
+
3,892 + 3,913 + 3,931 + 12,206 + 12,252 + 12,290 + 12,341 +
2,646 - 2,621 2,664 o
2,665 + 10,554 + 10,609 - 10,578 + 10,658 +
+
+
+
+
+
+r73,232
+ 1,202 - 1,188 - 1,167
o
63
62
r57
+
870
867 +
r873
- 1,161 - 1,140 + rl,l62
r539
539 o
o
539 o
r656
656
655 +
r578
578 o
+
581
116 +
117
o
117
+
492
489 +
491
262 +
o
266
r264
r602
r3,544r4,478
r3,935
rll,823
3,936
r!2,419
2,618
rlO,699
+ 73,535
(88)
+ r 1,171
54
+
r874
+ rl,l63
+
542
+
r658
+ r585
o
117
+
r494
r263
+
101
+
529
+
420
+
535
+ 1,027
+ 1,060
+ 1,268
+ 1,265
+ 1,254
+
285
+
334
+ 1,172
o
54
+
882
+ 1,166
+
546
657
+
586
+
118
+
503
259
+
r605
+ r3,547
+ r4,489
+ r3,945
4rll,840
+ r3,952
-r!2,396
+ 2,636
+rlO,805
+
606
o 3,547
+ 4,511
+ 3,955
+ 11,894
+ 3,964
+ 12,436
o 2,636
+ 10,843
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
r97
r527
r413
r529
rl,015
rl,055
rl,248
rl,244
rl,247
r282
332
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
Average
for November 6 and 14.
2
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. The industrial materials price index is not seasonally3 adjusted.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shorni are preliminary.
100
NOVEMBER 1972
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1972
Diffusion index components
March
1
April
May
August1" 1 September1"
July r
June
October p
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1967-100)
All industrial production
+
111.2
+
(67)
(79)
110.2
110.8
Durable manufactures:
Primary and fabricated metals „
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
+
+
105.1 +
110.1 +
Machinery and allied goods
Noneletrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
95.9
1U. 2 +
Lumber, clay and glass
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
+
-
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous manufactures. 0
+
+
Nondurable manufactures:
Textiles, apparel, and leather,,
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
+
+
0
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
+
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
+
+
Foods and tobacco. . .
Poods
Tobacco products
Mining:
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
112.8
97.6
103.3
117.2
119.6
+
113.2 +
(50)
+
+
98.6 +
107.1 100.4
116.1 +
113.4 +
113.9 +
115.0 +
115.7
(65)
(52)
(79)
(73)
114.9 114.1 +
113.9 +
116.1 -
117.7
115.9
+
+
119.0
116.7
105.5
108.0
+
99.7
+
+
106.8
107.6
102.4
123.2
111.9
+
111.9
112.3
+
+
100.4
105.9
+
+
101.8
108.0
+
97.4
+
+
113! 5
98.9
117.3
102.9
107.1
98.2
104.0
107.7
120.9
+
+
+
+
118.9
121.3
o
118.1
121.3
117 i 6 132.5 +
117 '.5
133.4
+
+
108.2
116.7
86.5
+
(NA)
92.5
126 '.3
108.6
+
119.3
+
-
117.5 119.1 +
117.4
121.8
+
117 i 7 +
121.5
no i 7 +
112 is
130.6
+
+
115i5
131.0
+
+
+
+
119.9
-
117.1
+
119.9
108i7 +
127.2 +
111!1?
127.4
+
129.6
+
113.5
103.3
-
112.8
102.8
112.7
102.2
89.2
+
+
+
113.9
103.0
85.4
+
+
+
92.2
90.2
122.' 5
105.9
+
-
124^4
104.2
+
+
127.2
105.3
+
126.7
107.3
+
135.7 +
117.9 138.1 +
137.9
117.0
144-7
+
+
+
138.9
119.5
146.5
+
-
139.5
117.3
145.0
o
+
110.9
102.7
+
+
+
+
94-4
98.4
115.8
104.3
126i<9
107.2
+
126.5
108.8
-
139.5
119.5
144.1
+
+
+
142.4
120.4
146.0
+
+
+
122.0
+
(71)
+
120.1
(NA)
(NA)
+
127.3
(NA)
(NA)
+
108.6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
116.1
(NA)
109.0
+
+
•
»..
+
101.9
+
+
0
11?! 5
-
+
+
118 ! 6 103.9
118 is +
99.1
119 '.3
96.4
+
118 i 3 +
96.7
+
104.1 •f
109.3 +
112.9
109.6
+
105.0
110.7
+
o
109.1 +
110.7
114.4
110.5
-
122.2
-
110.7
+
102.9
102.2
97.4
91.6
131.0
92.7
92.6
91.7
+
119 i 6 +
108.5
144.1 +
121.3
H7.4
118.4
119.2
110.8
+
+
104.7
111.4
+
+
114.8
+
123.0
97.2
+
+
(NA)
+
+
92.0
116.7
91.4
142.0
H5.0
(NA)
(NA)
118.9
119.6
(NA)
103.9
111.0
106.1
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
¥here actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
2
NOVEMBER 1972
101
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1972
Diffusion index components
March
April
June
May
August
July
October
September
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Millions of dollars)
+ 36,450 - r36,296 + r37,141 - r36,822 +
All retail sales.
(87)
643
433
695
299
+
+
+
+
r654
r438
r699
r300
1,016 + 1,051 - 1,026
607
576
527 +
+ 1,250 + 1,263 + 1,338
342
+
342 o
341
+
4+
+
rl,040
r6l3
rl,362
352
671
445
r673 +
310 +
649
438
r706
317
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Shoe stores
+
+
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
+ 1,058 568 +
+ 1,270 +
352
1,044
583
1,246
316
-
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers.
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
LiQuor stores
+
+
+
+
+
6,464 +
609
2,534 1,178 +
800
6,490
577
r2,489
rl,205
769
+
+
+
+
+
632
417
671
290
+
+
+
+
r7,279 +
7,374
r2,801 + 2,818
3,792 +
3,899
422
393 +
r7,457
r2,797
r3,845
r439
r7,449
r2,785
3,838
423
+ 7,190 +
+ - 2,814 +
3,664 +
406
6,719
583
r2,534
rl,208
766
+
-
638
429
r683
294
+
+
6,704
562
r2,500
rl,2!8
776
+
+
+
+
37,683
+
(26)
(76)
+
+
+
+
+
+
Grocery stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise). . .
r7,265
r2,763
3,643
396
(70)
(37)
(70)
(48)
37,342 + r37,969 -
+
+
+
38,750
(100)
7,419 + (NA)
2,780 + (NA)
3,990 + (NA)
424 + (NA)
637 + (NA)
435 + (NA)
700 + (NA)
330 + (NA)
1,028 + (NA)
584 + (NA)
+ 1,406 + (NA)
333 + (NA)
-
6,909 + (NA)
+ 6,821 + r7,104 +
578 +
r6l9
603 + (NA)
+ 2,577 + r2,622 - 2,612 + (NA)
- 1,204 + rl,246 - 1,216 + (NA)
759 + (NA)
r775
+
785
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 3
(1967=100)
All manufacturing industries
+
Percent rising of 22 components
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and household durables.
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and plastic products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
116.7
+
(80)
116.9
+
(77)
117.4 +
(91)
117.8 + 118.3
(80)
+ 139.5
+ 110.9
+ 124.8
+ 128.3
+ 117.2
+ 122.1
+ 124.1
+ 121.5
+
141.1
+
111.0
+ 125.6
o 128.3
+ 117.6
o 122.1
+ 124.3
+ 121.9
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
142.7
111.1
125.9
128.3
117.8
122.0
124.4
122.2
+
1U.2
+
111.2
- 125.8
- 128.1
+
+
o
+
119.0
110.1
118.1
114.2
+
+
-
+ 120.3
+ 110.5
+
118.1
o
114.1
+ 120.7
+ 110.6
+ 118.5
+ 114.2
+
118.6
119.6
119.6
110.2
118.0
114.1
+
+
- 117.7
+ 120.5
92.0
+ 93.0
106.1 + 107.2
114-1 + 114.2
+
+
_
+
112.3 + 112.8
103.4 + 104.1
106.3 + 106.6
108.9 - 108.7
123.0 + 127.2
- 117.6
+ 122.2
o 124.4
+ 122.7
+ 118.6 + 119.6
+ 121.5 + 122.6
+ 99.2
+ 98.3
+ 108.0 + 108.6
+ 114.3 + 114.4
+
+
+
+
+
113.2 + 113.5
104.4 - 104.3
107.3 + 108.5
108.8 + 108.9
129.5 + 130.9
(80)
+
+
118.5
+ 148.1
+
111.7
+ 126.7
+ 128.6
+ 121.5
+ 123.0
+ 100.0
+ 108.9
+ 115.1
+ 113.7
- 104.2
+ 109.1
+ 109.2
+ 131.6
o
+ 148.5 + 149.2
+ 112.0 o 112.0
+ 126.9 + 127.3
+ 128.8 + 128.9
o 116.8 + 117.4
+ 122.5 + 122.7
+ 124.7 o 124.7
+ 123.0 o 123.0
+
+
+
o 120.8
- 110.6
+ 118.5
+
115.1
+ 120.9
o 110.6
o 118.5
+ 115.2
o 120.9
- 110.5
- 116.9
- 115.0
- 121.0
- 122.8
+
101.1
- 108.7
o
115.1
+ 121.8
+ 123.6
+ 102.5
- 108.6
+ 115.3
o
+
+
o
+
+
114.1
+ 104.4
+ 110.7
+ 109.5
+ 134.6
114-7
+ 114.3 +
104-4
o
104-4 o
+
111.3 + 111.5
o 109.5 o 109.5
+ 135.7 + 139.8
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (•) = falling.
NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
2
The
3
102
118.8
(68)
(82)
(75)
+ 146.1
+ 111.4
+ 126.2
+ 128.3
- 116.8
o 122.2
- 124.2
+ 122.9
+ 120.8
+ 110.7
- 118.4
+ 114.9
118.8
NOVEMBER 1972
117.3
123.0
124.8
123.2
121.8
124.0
106.6
108.6
115.6
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Q CONSUMER PRICES
Year
and
month
781. United
States,
index of
consumer
prices ©
133. Canada,
index of
consumer
prices©
132. United
Kingdom,
index of
consumer
prices®
135, West
Germany,
index of
consumer
prices®
136. France,
index of
consumer
prices ©
(1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)
138. Japan,
index of
consumer
prices ®
137. Italy,
index of
consumer
prices ®
47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production
123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production
122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
(1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)
1970
January
February
March
113
114
114
111
112
112
114
114
115
107
108
108
114
115
115
116
117
118
107
107
108
107
108
108
115
116
114
109
110
112
125
125
124
April
May
June
115
116
116
112
112
113
117
117
117
108
109
109
116
117
117
119
118
117
108
109
109
108
108
108
115
114
115
111
109
110
126
124
122
July
August
September
117
117
118
113
113
113
118
118
119
109
109
109
118
118
118
118
118
122
109
109
110
108
108
107
114
114
113
109
111
112
124
124
125
October . .
November .
December
1971
January
February
March
118
118
119
113
113
113
120
121
121
109
110
110
119
119
120
124
123
124
111
111
112
104
103
105
113
114
114
112
110
112
124
125
126
119
119
120
113
113
114
123
124
125
111
112
113
120
121
121
125
125
125
112
113
113
105
106
106
115
115
116
113
110
109
127
129
131
April
May
June
120
121
122
115
115
115
128
128
129
114
114
115
122
123
123
127
127
127
113
114
114
106
107
107
115
116
116
111
111
112
128
127
130
July
August
September
122
122
122
116
117
117
130
130
130
115
115
116
124
124
125
127
126
131
114
115
115
107
106
107
117
r!23
r!25
111
111
112
132
132
136
October.
November
December
1972
January
February
March
122
123
123
117
117
118
131
132
132
116
117
117
126
126
127
131
129
129
116
117
117
107
107
108
r!25
r.124
r!24
111
111
110
135
136
135
123
124
124
118
119
119
133
134
134
118
119
119
127
128
128
130
130
131
117
118
118
109
110
111
r!25
r!26
r!27
119
99
112
138
137
139
April
May
June
124
125
125
120
120
120
136
136
137
120
120
121
129
130
130
132
133
133
119
120
120
113
113
113
r!29
r!28
129
113
117
116
137
r!40
r!39
July
August
September
126
126
126
122
122
123
138
139
139
122
122
123
131
132
133
133
134
135
121
122
114
r!15
rll6
p!28
(NA)
118
pl!7
(NA)
141
p!41
(NA)
October
November
December
127
(NA)
(NA)
124
(NA)
136
(NA)
pl!7
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.
KCII
NOVEMBER 1972
103
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION-Continued
Year
and
month
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production
121. OECD, 1 127. Italy,
European index of
countries, industrial
production
index of
industrial
production
Q STOCK PRICES
19. United
States,
ndex of
stock
prices, 500
common
stocks®
143. Canada,
index of
stock
prices®
142. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ®
146. France,
index of
stock
prices®
(1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)
148. Japan,
index of
stock
prices®
145. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices®
147. Italy,
index of
stock
prices ®
(1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)
1970
January
February .
March
133
134
135
148
152
154
122
124
124
118
119
120
98
95
96
115
113
116
139
135
131
153
149
146
152
149
147
167
165
172
116
116
116
April
May
June
134
141
134
157
157
163
124
125
123
118
117
116
93
83
82
113
97
94
129
116
113
140
136
132
U7
135
129
171
148
149
120
112
106
July
August
September
136
135
134
164
162
164
124
124
125
118
112
119
82
85
90
93
95
99
115
118
120
136
138
135
127
133
128
150
151
148
103
107
103
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
135
134
13.4
163
160
164
125
125
125
117
120
118
92
92
98
101
100
104
128
120
121
137
134
135
126
121
119
U5
145
140
101
96
94
138
139
138
164
164
168
126
126
126
117
117
116
102
106
108
108
108
109
123
122
120
136
139
137
125
134
137
145
151
161
91
94
93
April
May
June
140
138
138
165
158
168
127
126
127
113
113
1H
112
111
108
112
108
109
131
146
147
137
141
140
135
138
137
171
172
182
89
85
83
July
August.
September. . . .
139
134
138
169
168
171
128
125
129
112
104
117
108
106
108
109
107
108
157
158
164
141
135
128
135
136
129
190
179
170
83
82
78
October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
138
137
129
167
170
170
129
129
.127
116
117
.119
106
101
108
100
98
107
160
156
165
118
124
124
124
124
133
166
168
178
78
75
77
140
137
140
173
175
179
131
128
r!3l
119
117
116
112
114
117
117
119
121
175
180
186
128
130
140
137
146
152
195
204
215
78
76
74
April
May
June
142
142
139
178
179
182
132
r!33
r!33
115
117
117
118
117
118
.121
123
127
191
194
184
147
155
147
157
161
159
.230
261
257
79
30
78
r!41
p!38
(MO
rl82
185
P188
r!33
p!32
(NA)
114
pl!3
(NA)
117
121
119
126
134
133
187
195
185
156
162
163
159
165
160
273
290
300
80
80
rp80
119
p!23
p!31
p!32
180
p!83
rpl64
p!58
rp!54
p!57
309
P318
rp81
p85
July
August
September
October
November
December
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 67 and 68.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
104
NOVEMBER 1972
KCII
APPENDIXES
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Cl
1
C
I/C
QCD
I/C
for
npn
uLU
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
QCD
1.35
1.31
1.43
1.35
1.31
1.45
1.26
1.40
1.35
11.00
8.56
3.67
1.40
1.45
1.26
1.26
1.20
11.00
8.56
5.13
5.13
2.85
1.26
1.26
1.26
1.31
7.70
3.67
38.50
77.00
4.81
2.81
7.00
77.00
2.48
4.05
2.85
2.96
3.35
2.85
3.08
2.62
4.00
2.75
5.92
3.35
3.35
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
200
205.
210.
215
217.
220.
222.
224.
225.
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
National income, current dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, constant dollars .
226.
227.
230.
231.
232
233.
Per capita disposable personal income, current dollars
Per capita disposable personal income, constant dollars
Total personal consumption expenditures, current dollars . . .
Total personal consumption expenditures, constant dollars ..
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, except
automobiles
234. Personal consumption expend., automobiles
236. Personal consumption expend., nondurable goods
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-MQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
I Q '53-1 1 Q 72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ '53-1 Id 72
1.64
1.20
IQ'53-IIQ72... .
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ '53-11072
1.22
1.51
1.05
3.14
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ'53-IIQ72
2.13
6.44
1.27
1.78
.65
1.39
1.03
1.69
1.56
1.51
1.07
.83
4.51
2.63
2.64
3.18
3.81
2.26
3.70
0.32
.34
.11
.32
.34
.36
.22
.26
.30
.28
.29
.34
.37
1.62
.83
4.21
.44
.20
1.99
1.58
1.05
.65
1.31
.87
1.59
1.54
1.48
1.00
1.17
.73
1.47
.98
2.36
1.92
4.02
1.21
1.75
3.33
2.35
2.13
2.62
3.51
1.92
3.36
5.5$
2.52
2.46
.32
.17
.25
.39
.22
.14
.18
.30
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
.24
.40
.23
.38
.68
1
1
1
1
1
.24
.40
.23
.38
.68
.43
1
2
1
1
.43
.44
.37
.12
.80
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
.60
.38
.66
.49
.31
.49
.31
.61
.43
.80
2.48
4.05
2.85
2.96
3.35
2.85
3.08
1.71
2.57
2.75
1.40
1.37
1.28
1.24
1.33
1.37
1.33
1.24
1.28
1.28
4.81
5.13
5.13
4.05
6.42
4.53
4.81
2.85
5.92
7.00
5.92
3.35
3.35
1.31
1.31
1.22
15.40
3.08
1.24
1.24
1.31
1.26
1.22
0.21
1.05
.37
.12
.60
.38
.66
.49
.31
.49
.31
0.21
.32
.17
.25
.39
.22
.14
.18
.30
8.56
3.67
19.25
7.00
4.53
7.00
15.40
15.40
5.92
7.00
5.13
11.00
5.13
2.85
4.81
2.20
7.00
77.00
240.
241.
242.
243.
244.
247
248.
249.
252
253
Gross private domestic investment, total
Total nonresidential fixed investment
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures
Fixed investment, producers' durable equipment
Fixed investment, residential structures
Fixed investment nonresidential, 1958 dollars
Fixed investment in residential structures, 1958 dollars
Gross auto product, 1958 dollars
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
260.
261.
262
264.
IQ'53-IIQ 72
Govt. purchases of goods and services, total
Total Govt. purchases of goods and services, 1958 dollars . . . IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
Federal Govt purchases of goods and services
Federal Government purchases of goods and services for
IQ'53-IIQ 72
national defense
IQ'53-IIQ 72 . .
State and local govt purchases goods and services
IQ'53-IIQ 72
Final sales, durable goods
IQ'53-IIQ 72
Final sales, 1958 dollars
IQ'53-IIQ 72
Final sales nondurable goods
1.94
1.48
2.17
.53
.61
.89
1.82
1.27
1.90
.29
.48
.47
1
1
1
.29
.48
.47
2.23
2.38
2.31
1.02
1.31
.80
.40
1.95
2.37
1.89
.41
.17
.56
.39
.39
1
1
1
1
1
.41
.17
.56
.39
.39
IQ'53-IIQ 72. .
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
1.71
1.26
1.11
4.28
3.73
4.49
8.43
.16
.61
.42
.70
.23
.64
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
.16 11.00
2.48
.61
.42
7.70
2.96
.70
.23 25.67
2.66
.64
1.75
.45
1.35
1.35
1.33
1.22
1.28
1.26
1.28
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
9.98
1.93
6.08
IQ'53-IIQ 71
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72. .
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72 .
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
8.21
4.97
4.94
3.88
3.70
1.54
2.80
4.23
2.83
2.91
2.09
2.11
IQ'57-IIQ72
IQ'57-IIQ72
IQ'57-IIQ72
IQ'59-IIQ72
IIQ'57-IIQ72 . . . .
2.76
2.22
1.44
7.93
2.88
266
270.
273.
274
280
282
284
286.
288
290.
292.
294.
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adjustment
Net interest
Gross saving, private and government . .
Personal saving
Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation
adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
10.61
3.80
3.30
.89
1.40
1.28
1.08
.95
1.05
7.70
2.53
1.98
1.07
.37
.49
.26
.62
.42
2.22
.83
2.17
6.28
.36
.93
1.24
1.67
1.03
.98
3.18
3.69
3.41
5.05
1.38
1.00
1.24
25.67
3.08
3.08
7.00
7.06
1.87
.86
.19
1
1
.86
.19
25.67
1.33
1.31
6.24
3.74
3.74
2.99
2.85
1.50
2.51
.68
.76
.78
.70
.74
.22
.40
.40
.48
.19
.82
.21
.32
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
.68
2.85
.76
2.85
.78
2.75
2.57
.70
.74
2.57
.22 15.40
.40
3.67
.40
3.67
.48
3.85
3.85
.19
2.26
.82
8.56
.21
3.67
.32
1.24
1.22
1.22
1.26
1.26
1.22
1.20
1.35
1.28
1.28
1.24
1.35
1.31
.47
.44
.17
1
1
1
2
1
.47
.44
.17
.55
.75
1.22
1.45
1.30
1.29
1.20
2.14
7.00
38.50
11.00
7.00
12.83
15.40
77.00
11.00
8.56
77.00
5.13
4.53
19.25
7.00
4.53
7.00
15.40
15.40
5.92
7.00
5.13
11.00
4.81
3.08
25.67
25.67
7.00
3.08
3.08
7.00
11.00
19.25
11.00
11.00
4.81
6.42
4.28
2.48
7.70
2.96
25.67
25.67
6.42
4.28
2.66
2.53
2.75
2.14
25.67
25.67
3.35
4.28
4.81
5.50
4.81
2.85
2.85
2.75
2.57
2.57
15.40
15.40
5.92
7.00
5.92
6.42
3.50
7.00
3.67
3.67
3.85
3.85
2.26
8.56
3.67
5.55
7.62
8.71
3.79
4.36
3.21
4.36
6.78
2.48
2.18
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
1 1 New capital appropriations manufacturing
*16. Corporate profits, after taxes
18 Corporate profits after taxes 1958 dollars
34. Net cash flow, corporate
35 Net cash flow corporate 1958 dollars
57 Final sales
*61 . Business expend., new plant and equipment
63 Unit labor cost total private economy
68 Labor cost per unit of gross prod., nonfin corp. . .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
110 Total private borrowing
^200 GNP in current dollars
'205 GNP in 1958 dollars
.82
.89
4.83
9.55
1.64
1.20
.33
1.00
.29
.37
.87
5.63
.32
.34
.73
.77
4.65
6.84
1.58
1.05
11.00
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
61 a
410
412
430a
435.
Business expend new plant and equipment
Manufacturers' sales total value
Manufacturers' inventories total book value
New car purchases by households
Index of consumer sentiment
See definitions of measures at end of part 1.
1.13
.79
.24
5.54
1.51
2.39
1.80
1.40
4.33
2.00
1.28
.75
3.21
4.36
6.78
1.83
2.18
105
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Cl
1
C
I/C
QCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I/C
for
QCD
span
Cl
1
C
QCD
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
IQ'65-IIQ'72
IQ'60IIQ'72
IQ'60-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'60-IVQ'71 . . . .
0.91
3.68
3.51
2.23
3.31
1.12
0.89
2.20
2.72
1.95
2.74
IQ'60-IVQ'71 . . . .
5.98
2.66
4.83
U.S. official reserve assets
Merchandise exports, adjusted
Merchandise imports adjusted
Investment income, military sales, and other services,
exports
541. Foreign investment income, military expenditures, and other
services, imports
IQWIVQ'71 ....
IQ'60-110'72
IQWIIQ'72
2.61
5.06
4.62
1.31
3.93
2.78
2.21
2.40
3.31
IQ'60-IIQ'72
3.50
2.21
IQWIIQ'72
2.58
542
543.
544
545
546.
547
Income on US investments abroad
Income on foreign investments in U.S
Receipts from foreign travelers in U S
Payments by U S travelers abroad
Military sales to foreigners
U S military expenditures abroad
IQWIIQ'72
IQWIIQ'72
IQW-IIQ'72
IQW-IIQ'72
IQW-IIQ'72
IQWIIQ'72
5.26
5.05
3.28
3.93
18.56
3.44
548.
549
601
602
745.
746
770
Receipts from transportation and other services
Payments for transportation and other services
Fed receipts natl income and product accts
Fed. expend natl income and product accts
Avg. hourly compensation, private nonfarm economy
Real avg hourly comp private nonfarm economy
Output per man-hour, total private economy
211.
252
253
264.
530.
532.
Fixed weighted price index, gross private product
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
National defense purchases
.
.
....
Liquid liabilities to all foreigners
Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign official
agencies
534.
536.
537
540.
....
....
.. .
IQWIIQ'72
IQWIIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72.....
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-110'72
3.06
3.51
2.53
2.17
1.24
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
8.02
.67
.86
0.10
2.67
2.18
0.12
29.00
29.00
29.00
7.00
4.81
4.45
3.69
2.72
3.08
2.88
12.25
2.88'
1.38
1.22
1.29
1.24
1.32
.80
.41
.41
1
2
1
1
1
.55
1
.55
2.47
1.15
3.62
2.47
.59
.84
1
2
1
.59
.68
.84
2.94
1.75
3.06
1.27
1.29
1.29
5.22
3.77
6.12
2.94
3.20
3.06
2.51
.88
1
.88
2.04
1.26
8.17
2.04
1.22
2.16
.56
1
.56
2.72
1.20
6.12
2.72
3.60
2.21
1.57
2.35
3.28
4.63
2.64
2.85
9.13
2.18
1.10
2
1
1
1
2
2
.43
.48
.59
.82
.63
.43
1.69
4.08
3.50
2.33
1.53
1.88
1.17
1.22
1.53
1.20
1.26
1.22
3.50
6.12
4.90
4.45
2.23
3.77
3.43
4.08
3.50
2.33
2.18
2.82
2.12
2.16
2.32
1.93
1.22
1.10
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
.45
.51
.41
.47
.16
.36
.50
2.23
2.13
3.67
4.05
5.44
3.77
5.50
7.00
4.36
2.82
3.67
4.05
77.00
15.40
77.00
8.56
3.67
1.26
1.32
1.28
1.18
1.40
1.38
1.26
2
1
.48
.54
1.60
1.28
3.50
3.17
3.35
1.26
7.00
3.35
.80
13.97
2.33
2.34
2.65
.94
.90
.20
.23
.38
.65
.76
0.12
1.21
1.63
.48
.59
.82
1.53
1.07
1.23
.41
.47
.16
.36
.50
.51
.80
.41
.41
2.45
2.72
3.08
77.00
8.56
8.56
3.67
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income
858 Output per man-hour total private nonfarm
.87
6.23
.38
4.80
.71
1.30
.54
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators,
by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted
from Journal of Business, October 1957).
and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated
by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with
a QCD greater than "2" are shown as "3"
"Cl" is the average quarter-to-quarter percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
or, if the series contains no measurable seasonal, in the
unadjusted series.
"l/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally ad justed
series. It is shown for 1-quarter spans and for spans of
the period of QCD. When QCD is "3", no l/C ratio is shown for
the QCD period.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained
by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"QCD" (quarters for cyclical dominance) provides an
estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a quarterly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
QCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-quarter
spans (1st quarter-2d quarter, 2d quarter-3d quarter, etc.),
2-quarter spans (1st quarter-3d quarter, 2d quarter-4th
quarter, etc.), up to 4-quarter spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span. QCD is the shortest span in quarters for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
106
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
quarterly changes in the same direction in any series of
observations. When there is no change between 2 quarters, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and
the QCD curve. The QCD curve is an unweighted moving
average (with the number of terms equal to QCD) of the
seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1quarter intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-quarter
intervals in a moving average (QCD) of a random series, the
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of Cl is
1.47 for the series on the ratio of personal saving to disposable
personal income (series 854). This indicates that 1-quarter
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART l--Continued
(2 quarters being the QCD span) reverses direction, on the
average, about every 3 quarters. The increase in the ADR
from 1.47 for CI to 3.24 for the QCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, quarter-to-quarter changes in the QCD
moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend
movements of the series, whereas the quarter-to-quarter
changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average,
reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series.
The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.30 for I
and 3.63 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has
been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is
3.24 for the QCD moving average. This indicates that a
2-quarter moving average of the seasonally adjusted series
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Quarterly Series: Average Actual Changes
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Unit of
measure
1
CI
C
I/C
QCD
I/C
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
1
C
QCD
2 0.54 1.64
.51 1.71
2
1
.84 2.33
.60 1.60
2
4
.82 1.40
1
.71 2.75
1.31
1.31
1.28
1.37
1.26
1.33
3.21
2.96
4.05
2.75
2.41
3.85
2.53
2.53
2.33
2.53
2.85
2.75
CI
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
245. Change in business inventories, total .
IQ'53-IIQ'72 ..
246.
250
271.
275.
298.
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72
Change in business inventories, 1958 dollars
Net exports of goods and services
Change in business inventories durable goods
Change in bus. inventories, nondurable goods
Government surplus or deficit, total
..
..
..
..
..
Ann. rate,
bil dol
...do
do
... do
...do
...do
2.65
2.57
.92
2.41
1.64
3.01
1.85
1.77
.56
1.59
1.44
1.81
1.54
1.55
.67
1.32
.62
2.54
1.20
1.14
.84
1.20
2.30
.71
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
15 Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales mfg
22. Ratio of profits to income orginating, corporate,
all industries
....
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans (u)
245 Change in business inventories total
IQ'53-IIQ'72 ..
Cents
.22
.13
.15
.83
1
.83
2.57
1.33
3.21
2.57
IQ'53-IIQ'72 ..
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72 ..
Percent
. . . do
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
.45
.18
.32
.09
.32
.16
1.00
.58
2
1
.37
.58
2.75
2.48
1.24
1.40
6.42
3.85
4.75
2.48
2.65
1.85
1.54
1.20
2
.54
1.64
1.31
3.21
2.53
259.04 169.62 174.84
Mil. dol
253.80 172.57 168.31
... do
263.92 183.28 167.97
...do
642.75 462.57 311.70
...do . . .
749.49 408.84 491.05
...do
L,071.73 660.39 613.98
...do
118.04 102.80 44.66
...do
227.24 176.99 101.60
...do
193.63 128.88 114.02
...do
159.06 142.41 88.90
...do
...do
281.67 220.78 130.55
387.41 338.00 202.27
...do
Ann. rate,
2.38
1.89
3.07
bil. dol
1.41
1.34
1.94
Ann. rate, pet.
.79
1.45
1.22
...do
.97
1.03
1.09
1.48
.83
1.08
2.30
1.74
1.13
1.60
1.69
1.67
1
2
2
2
1
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
.97
.43
.45
.77
.83
.57
.98
.82
.61
.56
.65
.56
2.04
1.88
2.04
1.75
2.04
1.88
1.48
1.48
1.81
1.48
1.53
1.53
1.22
1.22
1.44
1.36
1.40
1.36
1.20
1.40
1.29
1.09
1.22
1.22
3.50
4.08
4.08
2.58
2.88
2.45
1.96
2.45
2.58
2.72
2.45
2.72
2.04
2.67
2.67
2.18
2.04
2.18
2,09
2.18
2.18
2.18
2.67
2.00
.79
.95
1.54
1
1
2
.79
.95
.71
2.33
1.55
1.42
1.26
1.13
1.13
4.28
2.43
2.12
2.33
1.55
2.00
3.77
1.27
.16
.50
.53
.97
1
1
1
.50
.53
.97
3.08
3.35
2.03
1.31
1.31
1.30
5.50
3.85
2.83
3.08
3.35
2.03
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
U.S. Balance of Payments:
250.
515.
517
519.
521.
522
560
561.
564
565.
570.
575.
600.
Balance on goods and services
Balance on goods, services, and remittances
Balance on current account
Blance on curr. acct. and long term capital
Net liquidity balance
Official reserve transactions balance
Foreign direct investments in the U S
U.S. direct investments abroad ..
.
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
Govt. grants and capital transactions, net
Banking and other capital transactions, net
Fed. balance, natl. income and product accts
. ..
...
IQ'60-IIQ'72
IQ'60-IIQ'72
IQ'60-IIQ'72
IQ'BO-IIQ'72
IQ'60-IIQ'72
IQ'60-IIQ'72
I Q '60-11072
IQWIIQ72
IQ'BO-IIQ'72
IQ'60-IIQ72
IQWIIQ72
IQ '60-11072
IQ '53-11072
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
..
10 '68-1 10 72 ..
748. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, first year
749. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, life of contract . IQ '68-1 1072 ..
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
207. GNP gap (potential less actual) .
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing (u)
IQ '53-110 72 ..
IQ'53-IIQ72 ..
IQ'56-IIQ72 ..
...do
Percent
...do
* Series included in the 1966 NBER 'short list" of 26 indicators.
when QCD is "3."
4.57
1.58
.24
1.87
.67
.15
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
-"-Not shown
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This
method is used for series with zero or negative data and for
other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
expressed in percent.
Thus, "CI" is the average quarter-to-quarter change in the
seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without
regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure
as the series itself.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part 1.
107
B. Current Adjustment Factors
1972
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
13. New business incorporations
1
Jan.
Feb.
145.9
112.5
104.2
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales,
mfg 2
98.4
Mar.
Apr.
92.4
90.2
109.5
100.2
96.5
-567
-435
-155
-223
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies
reporting higher inventories
97.7
100.2
109.3
107.6
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding .
105.5
99.1
99.7
508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical
machinery
100 8
101 4
103 3
616. Defense Department obligations total
100.4
84.1
621. Defense Department obligations,
procurement
96.2
625. Military contract awards in U S
87.0
D34. Profits, manufactured (FNCB)
-13
July
Aug.
Nov.
Dec.
119.4
88.7
74.5
81.9
99.9
130.6
106.2
107.8
97.1
98.1
92.4
98.4
88.3
102.0
101 6
96.9
+18
+495
-47
+336
105.8
110.0
108.2
100.3
91.0
+126
+105
91 5
86 3
99.6
101.0
101.3
99.9
99 5
98 4
106 6
102 1
Q/ 6
89.1
95.1
88.0
141. B
103.6
83.6
80.9
84.2
74.8
186.3
85.1
84.9
78.2
82.9
165.9
1-13
Oct.
83.4
100.3
99.9
Sept.
80.5
90.6
100.1
5
June
105.0
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies1 3 .
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans4
May
-93
+368
94 7
87 8
98.1
114 9
100.0
99.7
99.2
100 9
Q7 ?
Q/
98.7
112.0
104.5
88.7
93.2
59.2
80.9
148.1
109.1
90.8
105.4
107.3
98.2
112.7
114.0
79.0
104.5
-10
99.5
£
100 3
+10
NOTE: These series are not published in seasonally adjusted form by the source agency (except series 13 and D34). Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of Economic Analysis or
the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment
Program.
•"•Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
Method II seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series. Factors are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, August, October, and December).
5
l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed in the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
108
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (u) (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
May
June
July
Aug.
Oct.
Sept.
Nov.
IQ
Dec.
II Q
6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS. DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRI ES1
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1947. ..
1948...
1949.. .
III Q
Annual
IV Q
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
5.66
7.46
7.14
5.98
7.50
7.08
5.90
7.82
6.67
5.89
8.00
6.16
6.21
8.06
6.02
5.92
8.85
5.75
5.95
8.85
5.93
6.19
8.92
6.85
6.83
8.38
6.92
6.99
8.34
6.77
7.36
7.95
7.12
7.72
7.72
7.00
17.54
22.78
20.89
18.02
24.91
17.93
18.97
26.15
19.70
22.07
24.01
20.89
76.60
97.85
79.41
1950...
1951. ..
1952...
1953...
1954. ..
7.56
15.46
11.06
14.45
9.99
7.62
14.08
11.06
14.21
10.31
7.86
14.64
12.8
13.34
9.72
8.35
13.84
12.94
13.69
10.17
9.23
13.25
10.86
13.58
9.75
9.39
12.88
13.00
13.20
10.29
11.52
12.61
12.04
12.35
10.50
14.21
11.41
11.76
10.89
10.45
11.79
10.75
12.00
11.98
10.95
11.55
11.88
11.18
23.04
44.18
26.97
39.97
9.71
11.69
9.99
12.64
9.94
11.14
9.96
12.60
42.00
30.02
40.47
30.21
37.52
34.77
36.46
32.95
32.64
34.83
34.71
36.69
29.89
36.38
122.36
153.63
144.88
145.31
129.25
1955...
1956...
1957. ..
1958...
1959. ..
13.48
15.72
15.16
11.62
15.52
13.92
14.61
15.64
11.67
16.90
15.69
14.11
11.69
17.08
14.58
12.44
16.30
15.06
14.23
13.13
16.72
14.75
13.43
13.40
16.08
17.73
14.03
13.32
14.62
15.74
14.78
13.64
13.64
15.25
15.74
15.0
15.14
12.66
16.98
12.96
14.63
15.48
15.78
13.58
15.36
14.57
15.73
12.54
14.62
15.76
45.37
45.94
35.95
49.40
45.91
42.92
37.26
50.10
47.26
41.10
40.36
45.95
46.35
39.08
44.61
45.81
184.89
169.04
158.18
191.26
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964. ..
15.68
14. 16
17.27
17.96
19.89
15.52
14.36
17.30
18.58
19.35
15.27
14.44
16.78
18.78
19.37
14.92
15.26
16.59
18.41
20.03
15.36
15.48
16.80
18.90
20.25
15.43
15.83
16.41
17.89
15.25
15.56
16.71
18.72
21.27
15.65
16.46
16.79
18.29
19.74
15.69
16.28
17.01
18.78
20.96
14.50
16.40
17.5.1
18.95
20.39
14.62
16.91
17.24
18.64
20.34
14.86
17.46
18.04
18.42
21.51
46.47
42.96
51.35
55.32
58.61
45.71
46.57
49.80
55.20
60.60
46.59
48.30
50.51
55.79
61.97
43.98
50.77
52.79
56.01
62.24
182.75
188.60
204.45
222.32
243.42
1965. ..
1966. ..
22.49
25.10
21.81
25.12
22.28
26.32
1968...
1969. ..
26.03
29.25
25.94
30-45
27.14
29.93
22.78
25.81
24.35
26.50
30.21
22.29
25.74
25.82
27.66
29.29
27.58
29.33
23.17
25.83
25.47
26.27
29.54
23.50
25.03
26.16
27.31
29.64
22.84
27.01
25.40
28.35
30.43
23.66
25.90
25.43
30.20
29.76
24. 11
25.05
25.82
26.54
29.03
24.72
24.98
28.33
29.46
28.09
66.58
76.54
73.09
79.11
89.63
67.52
77.67
76.36
81.74
88.83
69.51
77.87
77.03
81.93
89.61
72.49
75.93
79.58
86.20
86.88
276.10
308.01
306.06
328.98
354.95
1970...
1971...
1972...
26.48
27.33
26.80
26.98
27.88
27.91
28.03
27.84
27.23
25.74
25.75
28.26
80.61
82.77
83.10
79.75
326.23
14.51
20.32
22.45
26.12
26.19
29. INDEX OF NEW PRIVATE HOUSING UNITS AUTHORIZED BY LOCAL BUILDING PERMITS 2
(1967=100)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1946...
87.6
1947...
81.1
1948...
110.7
1949. . . 81.4
92.5
86.9
101.6
82.9
84.9
105.3
87.9
78.4
117.9
97.8
81.5
108.0
105.4
92.7
104.4
78.5
97.8
103.4
109.5
96.0
112.6
85.8
119.7
90.5
78.0
119.0
S7.2
73.8
118.8
83.8
98.7
84.3
105.9
82.6
84.2
110.1
78.8
106.6
95.1
75.7
119.2
87.2
83.9
98.6
99.6
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954. . .
159.3
148. 1
100.8
106.?
103.2
161.2
116.3
116.7
112.1
101.7
161.
105.8
106.8
113.0
107.1
163.9
98. 1
104.8
107.6
108.2
163.3
100.5
102.5
107.7
110.2
162.7
98.0
102.8
104.7
118.2
185.1
94.0
109.2
101.2
121.4
160.1
96.0
109.0
99.6
120.4
135.4
123.7
116.9
95.8
123.4
127.7
94.4
118.2
100.8
127.8
125.1
02. 0
118.6
101.3
137.6
160.5
95.3
109.6
103.7
133.7
160.5
123.4
08.1
10.4
04.0
163.3
98.9
103.4
106.7
112.2
160.2
104.6
111.7
98.9
121.7
137.8
93.9
115.5
101.9
133.0
55.4
05.2
09.7
04.5
17.7
1955...
1956...
1957.. .
1958...
1959...
138.1
111.2
87.6
92.6
152.9
108.1
91.9
79.7
130.9
111.2
931.8
88.3
134.5
110.9
87.8
93.1
135.2
103.2
91.6
97.3
127.8
101.3
93.6
103.9
128.2
100.6
87.2
113.2
123.7
98.2
93.3
113.1
122.0
95.8
93.5
116.0
110.9
119.3
94.4
92.2
119.5
106.7
108.9
94.8
89.6
135.8
102.0
108.3
94.0
90.4
117.3
109.5
40.6
10.2
90.8
86.9
121.3
132.5
105.1
91.0
98.1
118.9
124.6
98.2
91.3
114.1
113.3
112.2
94.4
90.7
124.2
106.1
127.5
102.0
91.0
105.8
114.9
I960. . . 104.0
1961. . . 92.3
1962. ..
1963...
1964. . . 119.1
103.6
91.5
90.9
95.2
108.0
96.7
95.4
100.2
97.8
108.7
91.2
101.9
95.1
103. 1
113.2
94.6
110.4
114.3
93.7
104.5
116.4
92.5
106.9
112.4
93.2
109.7
117.7
113.1
99.5
93.0
109.5
113.9
124.1
96.0
98.4
112.1
122.0
117.8
94.5
166.0
114.6
123.9
118.7
92.1
109.0
115.9
128.5
111.8
95.5
101.6
113.0
122.1
118.1
1965...
116.2
108.9
111.3
106.8
114.1
113.7
1967. ..
1968. ..
1969. ..
87.2
103.3
119.5
68.0
113.7
124.0
104.1
114.0
89.6
100.2
118.2
116.3
141.2
118.1
1970...
1971. ..
1972. . .
93.1
132.6
115.3
114.8
112.8
117.6
120.0
120.9
112.1
110.6
113.8
112.2
124.5
106.6
113.7
125.9
115.2
83.5
113.7
128.3
95.8
113.4
107.7
121.7
137.1
131.6
96.8
113.2
121.1
120.0
119.4
110.9
90.5
110.5
117.7
130.8
107.0
102.5
117.6
131.0
120.1
126.0
112.7
126.3
113.7
116.4
118.2
117.8
112.0
118.9
115.4
112.1
128.3
110.7
99.2
107.3
116.4
115.9
116.0
122.2
125.0
98.0
101.2
154.9
56. MANUFACTURING AND TRADE SALES1
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
1948...
1949...
34 353
35 053
34 131
34 380
34 890
34 189
34 702
33 521
35 398
33 648
35 881
33 065
36 053
36 012
35 864
35 57.1
35 662
102 864
104 990
101 358
107 946
100 877
107 097
99 124
422 897
405 638
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
33 632
45 242
34 464
44 583
34 893
43 983
35 474
43 250
36 686
43 566
38 462
43 172
42 054
42 082
43 205
42 8Q7
41 024
42 703
40 665
43 193
39 880
43 140
43 028
42 733
102 989
133 808
110 622
129 988
126 283
127 592
123 573
129 066
463 467
520 454
47 760
45 968
48 392
48 Q87
•48 935
48 904
48 398
49 372
48 185
47 828
47 54O
46 333
45 602
145 139
146 237
145 385
139 475
576 236
1955. ..
1956...
1957...
1958. ..
1959...
49
53
56
53
57
320
110
568
701
701
49
52
57
52
58
828
874
006
836
714
50
53
56
52
59
744
235
597
305
341
51
53
55
52
60
334
660
770
333
529
51
53
55
52
61
467
768
651
754
377
51
54
56
53
61
645
124
119
593
333
51
51
56
54
61
885
804
133
071
013
51
53
56
54
59
784
695
682
802
013
52
54
55
55
58
907
439
801
020
895
52
55
55
55
58
842
209
513
631
789
53
55
54
56
58
248
613
946
645
466
53
56
53
57
60
391
255
837
077
434
149
159
170
158
175
892
219
171
842
756
154
161
167
158
183
446
552
540
680
239
156
159
168
163
178
576
938
616
893
921
159
167
164
169
177
481
077
296
353
689
620
647
670
650
715
395
786
623
768
605
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
61
58
64
66
71
806
612
291
372
897
61
58
64
67
71
555
883
287
542
671
61
59
65
67
71
075
825
155
637
47
61
"59
65
68
72
660
397
220
208
590
60
60
65
68
73
827
166
155
176
344
60
61
64
68
73
672
113
736
790
168
60
60
65
70
74
468
553
040
032
142
59
62
65
69
73
927
026
614
240
944
60
62
65
69
75
374
336
885
699
167
60
63
66
70
73
185
13U
264
565
803
59
63
67
69
74
415
709
147
792
666
59
64
66
71
77
626
022
059
162
045
184
177
193
201
215
436
320
733
551
038
183
180
195
205
219
159
676
111
174
102
180
184
196
208
223
769
915
539
971
253
179
190
199
211
225
226
865
470
519
514
727
733
784
827
882
590
776
853
215
907
1965... 77
1966... 85
1967... 88
1968... 94
1969... 100
244
199
323
162
108
77
85
87
94.
LOI
195
498
838
444
149
78
87
88
95
101
876
189
416
213
593
79
86
88
95
102
190
605
583
198
253
79
86
88
96
102
132
116
705
194
571
79
87
89
96
102
435
563
679
974
844
SO
86
89
98
102
869
738
345
291
857
81
87
90
96
104
143
795
599
278
174
80
88
90
98
104
347
382
883
530
923
81
88
89
99
105
827
492
628
507
876
83
87
91
99
104
301
841
658
977
775
83
88
93
99
1.04
951
061
412
033
274
233
257
264
283
302
315
886
577
819
850
237
260
266
288
307
757
284
967
366
668
242
262
270
293
311
359
915
827
099
954
249
264
274
298
314
079
394
698
517
925
962
045
077
163
237
510
479
069
801
397
1970... 103 841
1971.. .
1972...
104 395
103 962
103 201
;inning 1966.
;inning 1960.
104 731
105 073
105 470
105 800
105 438
103 712
102 466
104 998
312 198
313 005
316 708
1
1
1
1
311 176 1 253 087
(NOVEMBER 1972)
109
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
>r quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
May
Apr.
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
2O. CHANGE. IN BOOK VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' INVENTORIES OF MATERIALS AND SUPPLIES1
(ANNUAL RATEi BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
19U5...
-0.4
0.1
0.9
5.1
1.0
4.2
1948...
19U9...
0.4
1.8
-0.3
2.5
1.1
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
0.6
6.8
-2.7
-1.1
-1.3
-0.8
2.7
-1.5
0.3
-1.8
0.3
5.5
-1.0
1.5
-2.9
0.2
5.9
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1.0
1.0
-0.5
-0.7
2.0
0.5
1.2
2.2
0.7
0.2
1.6
3.2
3.2
4.7
7.0
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
2.3
0.4
2.7
O.O
-0.8
1.6
1.5
0.1
0.4
-0.4
2.1
0.0
-0.1
2.2
1.0
0.3
0.9
-0.8
1.6
-0.5
0.2
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1.6
4.4
0.0
1.0
2.6
2.2
2.3
1.2
1.6
1.5
0.1
3.1
2.7
-0.2
4.1
2.2
1970...
1971...
1972...
-1.1
3.4
1.1
-1.2
III Q
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
-0.6
0.6
1.8
1.2
-0.5
2.8
1.0
2.9
0.7
5.4
-2.4
0*4
0.2
3.7
0.1
0.0
1.7
0.8
-1.2
-0.4
-2.5
4.4
-0.9
-0.6
0.7
3.1
2.7
-0.4
-0.1
4.3
2.9
0.5
1.3
0.2
1.8
2.7
0.9
-1.3
(Z)
2.5
2.2
1.7
-3.1
0.9
3.3
-1.2
0.0
-2.0
-0.6
3.9
1.6
-0.2
-0.6
0.1
2.9
1.3
0.6
-1.8
0.4
-1.2
1.7
1.5
0.0
3.6
-1.2
1.1
1.9
-3.7
0.0
0.8
3.0
0.0
-3.7
1.1
-0.5
5.3
1.3
-1.3
1.3
6.9
-3.5
-0.7
-0.2
6.0
2.6
-0.2
-2.3
8.6
-0.5
2.3
.0.6
8.3
-0.8
0.7
-2.1
(Z)
5.0
-1.7
0.2
1.0
3.1
-1.5
1.3
5.1
-0.7
-1.9
0.7
7.6
0.4
0.9
-1.7
3.4
2.0
-1.1
0.2
0.9
2.8
-3.3
0.8
1.8
0.8
1.7
1.8
0.7
1.9
-0.4
0.5
1.2
4.3
-1.0
-0.1
0.0
-3.9
2.1
1.1
1.2
1.4
-4.8
3.7
2.6
1.3
1.7
-4.1
0.3
2.0
0.0
-0.9
2.2
3.1
3.9
-2.1
0.6
3.5
0.5
1.7
0.2
-1.1
1.7
1.1
2.1
-0.6
-3.0
5.0
2.8
-0.1
0.5
(Z)
-2.5
2.4
2.8
-0.3
0.5
0.5
1.7
1.6
0.0
-0.9
1.2
0.3
-0.4
-2.6
-0.6
0.4
0.7
0.1
-0.3
1.0
-0.2
-6.1
1.3
1.1
1.3
-0.2
2.4
-0.3
1.4
4.6
-1.9
1.2
0.5
-0.9
3.7
-3.5
4.2
-0.3
-0.5
2.9
1.8
-0.9
2.3
0.3
-0.2
(Z)
-1.6
1.1
0.4
-0.2
-0.9
2.0
0.3
0.7
1.1
-2.0
1.7
(Z)
0.0
3.7
-0.3
0.3
0.9
0.4
1.1
0.8
2.4
1.0
1.1
2.9
1.2
2.8
2.6
-1.7
0.9
2.8
2.8
1.8
0.7
3.0
1.6
1.6
2.7
2.2
3.2
1.4
2.5
1.8
-0.5
0.6
2.4
2. 1
4.6
0.6
1.8
-0.4
0.4
5.7
1.7
2.3
0.6
1.5
3.9
0.1
4.2
2.8
2.7
0.8
1.8
0.2
3.4
1.5
1.1
2.0
1.5
1.8
(Z)
2.3
1.7
2.9
1.4
1.6
1.8
-1.6
-0.3
0.3
1.5
1.1
2.2
2.6
1.2
1.1
-1.0
1.0
2.0
0.8
•j:i
65. MANUFACTURERS* INVENTORIES OF FINISHED GOODS* BOOK VALUE? ALL MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES1
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
END OF PERIOD
1945...
1946...
19U7...
1948...
1949...
4.16
4.33
6.13
7.73
9.33
4.07
4.62
6.32
7.84
9.52
4.03
4.54
6.43
7.96
9.64
4.05
4.46
6.57
8.02
9.62
4.03
4.39
6.69
8.13
9.53
4.00
4.37
6.83
8*22
9.52
4.06
4.71
7.10
8.43
9.39
4.05
5.08
7.28
8.53
9.25
4.14
5.37
7.37
8.80
9.13
4.20
5.83
7.57
8.95
9.12
4.36
5.91
7.55
8.99
8.92
4.35
5.80
7.54
9.15
8.98
4.03
4.54
6.43
7.96
9.64
4.00
4.37
6.83
8.22
9.52
4.14
5.37
7.37
8.80
9.13
4.35
5.80
7.54
9.15
8.98
4.35
5.80
7.54
9.15
8.98
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
8.99
9.33
12.48
12.45
13.62
9.03
9.49
12.55
12.40
13.64
9.09
9.65
12.64
12.41
13.71
9.08
9.98
12.57
12.47
13.56
9.03
10.43
12.33
12.66
13.46
9.10
10.91
12.34
12.80
13.47
8.79
11.55
12.31
12.93
13.45
8.57
12.05
12.35
13.14
13.32
8.68
12.34
12.36
13.31
13.28
8.85
12.32
12.33
13.47
13.32
9.17
12.22
12.32
13.57
13.28
9.22
12.28
12.33
13.62
13.46
9.09
9.65
12.64
12.41
9.10
10.91
12.34
12.80
8.68
12.34
12.36
13.31
9.22
12.28
12.33
13.62
9.22
12.28
12.33
13.62
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
13.55
14.20
16.35
16.74
16.24
13.61
14.39
16.40
16.67
16.31
13.65
14.48
16.52
16.68
16.36
13.60
14.59
16.56
16.61
16.45
13.62
14.82
16.72
16.50
16.52
13.62
15.24
16.78
16.42
16.47
13.61
15.42
16.89
16.28
16.50
13.72
15.71
16*92
16*13
16*59
13.75
15.96
16.88
16.11
16.63
13.82
16.02
16.86
16.11
16.70
13.88
16.21
16.74
16.24
16.81
14.01
16.19
16.75
16.25
17.00
13.65
14.48
16.52
16.68
16.36
13.62
15.24
16.78
16.42
16.47
13.75
15.96
16.88
16.11
16.63
14.01
16.19
16.75
16.25
17.00
14.01
16.19
16.75
16.25
17.00
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
17.23
18.49
18.98
19.98
20.64
17.45
18.62
18.94
20.01
20.76
17.68
18.60
19.02
19.97
20.84
17.83
18.71
19.02
19.89
20.96
18.03
18.70
19.23
19.98
21.01
18.23
18.75
19.41
20.21
21.00
18.38
18.67
19.57
20.11
21.06
18.37
18.82
19.71
20.28
21.08
18.50
18.72
19.86
20.44
21.07
18.55
18.96
19.94
20.44
21.30
18.57
18.99
19.94
20.57
21.39
18.54
18.83
20.06
20.63
21.50
17.68
18.60
19.02
19.97
20.84
18.23
18.75
19.41
20.21
21.00
18.50
18.72
19.86
20,44
21.07
18.54
18.83
20.06
20.63
21.50
18.54
18.83
20.06
20.63
21.50
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
21.61
22.69
25.38
27.16
21.65
22.79
25.60
27.14
21.74
22.96
25.80
27.25
21.55
23.01
26.12
27.26
21.66
23.22
26.30
27.39
21.79
23.50
26.34
27.50
21.94
23.74
26.46
27.63
21.94
23.90
26.65
27.86
22.10
24.19
26.75
28.15
22.18
24. 4O
26.78
28.26
30.72
22.32
24.75
26.88
28.46
31. O8
22.46
25.03
27.00
28.71
31.24
21.74
22.96
25.80
27.25
29.23
21.79
23.50
26.34
27.50
30.06
22.10
24.19
26.75
28.15
30.68
22.46
25.03
27.00
28.71
31.24
22.46
25.03
27.00
28.71
31.24
197Q...
1971...
1972...
31.43
31.72
31.95
32.52
32.54
32.75
33.05
33.21
33.39
33.66
33.96
33.91
31.95
32.75
33.39
33.91
33.91
50. NUMBER OF JOB VACANCIES IN MANUFACTURING 2
(THOUS.)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
•••
...
...
'.".
'!'
...
204
185
168
•e, this series ha;
110
277
269
248
250
255
255
247
245
222
149
140
126
122
112
104
94
88
91
1966.
evised.
186
...
...
...
1970...
1971...
1972...
.!.
...
...
...
265
253
238
264
138
113
91
132
(NOVEMBER 1972)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Monthly
Quarterly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
71. MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES! TOTAL BOOK VALUE
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
III Q
IV Q
Annual
END OF PERIOD
1948...
1949. ..
47.52
53.30
48.24
53.33
48.83
53.06
49.20
52.41
49.36
51.87
50.11
51.42
51.06
51.05
51.49
50.81
51.92
50.89
52.34
50.56
52.58
50.10
52.51
49.50
48.83
53.06
50.11
51.42
51.92
50.89
52.51
49.50
52.51
49.50
1950...
1951. ..
1952...
1953...
1954...
49.66
62.26
70.72
74.01
75.73
49.63
63.74
70.63
74.19
75.44
50.07
65.27
70.62
74.64
75.12
50.37
66.65
70.43
75.37
74.74
51.06
67.87
70.05
75.69
74.42
51.67
68.65
70.23
76.17
74.04
51.40
69.10
69.99
76.96
73.70
53.23
69.53
69.91
77.19
73.24
54.71
69.53
70.80
77.41
73.17
56.38
69.77
71.58
76.99
72.85
58.37
69.98
72.06
76.40
73.20
59.82
70.24
72.38
76.12
73.18
50.07
65.27
70.62
74.64
75.12
51.67
68.65
70.23
76.17
74.04
54.71
69.53
70.80
77.41
73.17
59.82
70.24
72.38
76.12
73.18
59.82
70.24
72.38
76.12
73.18
1955...
1956...
1957. ..
1958...
1959. ..
73.55
80.27
87.85
88.66
87.12
73.82
81.33
88.05
88.07
87.52
74.45
81.75
88.21
87.62
87.94
74.52
82.84
88.52
86.92
89.16
75.02
83.51
88.51
86.35
89.69
75.69
84.04
88.58
86.09
90.51
76.24
84.52
88.83
85.79
91.12
76.98
84.96
89.42
85.56
91.08
77.39
85.63
89.88
85.91
90.65
78.33
86.05
89.16
86.10
90. 8O
78.91
86.94
88.99
86.28
90.70
79.52
87.30
89.05
86.92
91.89
74.45
81.75
88.21
87.62
87.94
75.69
84.04
88.58
86.09
90.51
77.39
85.63
89.88
85.91
90.65
79.52
87.30
89.05
86.92
91.89
79.52
87.30
89.05
86.92
91.89
1960. ..
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
92.78
93.86
94.64
94.70
95.26
95.46
95.79
95.48
95.67
96.21
101.22
105.95
96.81
101.52
106.30
97.47
101.77
106.72
97.60
101.87
107.27
98.34
102.27
107.64
98.85
102.75
108.07
99.20
103.17
108.24
99.67
103.65
108.65
100.39
104.22
109.75
95.54
94.85
100.84
104.94
109.72
95.66
95.49
100.92
105.40
110.5?.
94.75
95.65
101.09
105.48
111.46
94.64
93.69
97.47
101.77
106.72
95.46
93.68
98.85
O2.75
08.07
95.67
94.74
100.39
104.22
109.75
94.75
95.65
101.09
105.48
111.46
94.75
95.65
101.09
105.48
111.46
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
112.33
121.64
138.02
145.82
155.91
112.83
123.03
138.69
146.54
157.16
114.11
124.24
139.30
146.98
158.15
114.76
125.30
139.96
148.21
159.05
115.43
126.85
140.19
149.55
160.10
116.22
128.57
140.43
150.30
160.96
117.21
129.73
140.99
150.75
161.93
118.27
131.21
141.98
151.79
162.78
118.59
132.22
142.22
152.48
163.87
119.09
133.78
142.5.1
153.70
165.03
11
13
14
15
16
.84
.21
.65
.39
.59
120.90
136.73
145.11
155.34
166.69
114.11
124.24
139.30
146.98
158.15
16.22
28.57
40.43
50.30
60.96
118.59
132.22
142.22
152.48
163.87
120.90
136.73
145.11
155.34
166.69
120.90
136.73
145.11
155.34
166.69
1970...
1971...
1972...
166.92
168.07
168.63
169.76
169.67
170.70
171.97
172.72
173.22
173.44
174.37
174.94
168.63
170.70
173.22
174.94
174.94
31. CHANGE IN BOOK VALUE OF MANUFACTURING AND TRADE INVENTORIES?
(ANNUAL RATEi BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1948...
...
8.6
7.1
4.5
2.0
9.0
11.4
5.1
5.2
5.O
3.0
-0.9
...
2.3
5.2
-6.6
7.2
-2.1
2.4
-5.6
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1.9
29.2
-0.3
17.8
5.3
18.4
17.8
0.1
20.0
2.8
9.3
24.0
2.5
5.8
17.4
3.2
3.7
5.4
7.3
9.4
2.2
5.7
21.9
5.2
2.2
8.3
14.5
-4.5
3.9
-3.2
5.4
19.6
3.6
16.6
-2.2
8.7
2.3
21.8
1.5
9.1
6.4
13.5
-1.5
6.1
12.2
3.6
2.3
5.0
20.5
2.8
6.3
-5.2
6.6
5.7
3.0
8.9
5.4
7.0
5.0
8.0
5.6
-2.1
2.1
-1.2
0.8
7.7
14.3
3.6
-5.7
4.1
1.5
-6.1
10.3
5.2
-0.8
0.5
-3.3
4.0
5.0
6.4
7.8
1.8
-2.1
5.0
1955...
4.5
3.2
7.6
0.8
6.0
8.0
1957...
1958...
1959...
6.6
2.4
1.9
3.7
-0.1
0.9
2.4
4.7
5.1
I960...
1961...
10.6
-5.0
13.0
-2.0
9.4
-5.7
1963...
1.5
3.6
965...
966...
967...
968. ..
969. ..
8.9
15.5
8.5
6.8
2.7
1970...
1971...
1972...
-3.0
10.3
10.4
2.1
3.7
-3.0
6.4
9.9
7.2
-0.5
-5.2
-8.6
2.3
1.8
3.0
0.7
0.0
1.5
1.2
6.8
1.1
8.9
4.8
2.4
-1.3
6.1
5.7
4.0
2.2
4.3
5.1
2.0
-3.8
5.3
5.6
5.7
4.9
2.2
5.3
8.7
6.9
13.3
-1.5
1.3
5.4
8.6
-0.4
1.4
7.6
0.9
5.5
9.6
-10.9
1.9
2.0
0.9
11.3
11.0
-4.2
7.3
2.7
4.9
3.3
-0.1
5.5
3.9
5.4
0.8
4.3
6.2
5.9
6*7
-3.7
3.6
2.8
5.0
6.8
2.9
0.9
5.4
4.4
6.0
16.7
8.1
8.7
15.0
14.5
7.4
5.2
11.. 9
12.7
7.8
14.7
10.9
18.6
2.8
16.2
12.5
20.6
2.8
9.0
10.4
11.8
14.0
6.7
5.4
11.7
12.7
17.7
12.0
12.5
10.2
3.9
12.2
2.8
8.4
13.0
6.0
18.7
3.5
14.5
13.9
9.1
17.2
13.7
8.3
6.8
12.7
18.2
17.5
11.4
13.2
10.3
7.5
11.2
4.5
13.3
11.3
7.2
8.8
11.6
11.6
11.4
11.3
15.8
8.4
10.2
11.4
13.8
6.6
13.6
-1.1
12.3
15.2
9.0
6.0
2.6
11.2
6.8
7.7
8.3
10.1
6.9
8.2
14.6
851. RATIO, INVENTORIES TO SALES? MANUFACTURING AND TRADE TOTAL
(RATIO)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1948...
1.53
1.55
1.53
1.54
1.51
1.49
1.54
1 . 5 .1
1.50
1.40
1.53
1.42
1.54
1.43
1.51
1.47
1.52
1.43
1.52
1952...
1953...
1954...
1.63
1.55
1.65
1.62
1.53
1.62
1.63
1.52
1.63
1.61
1.54
1.60
1.58
1.55
1.62
1.58
1.57
1.60
.22
.64
.61
.56
.60
1.23
1.62
1.58
1.60
1.60
1.33
1.63
1.55
1.62
1.60
1.62
1.52
1.6?,
1.58
1.62
1.54
1.65
1.54
1.64
1.52
1.67
1.51
1.45
1.43
1.63
1.53
1.63
.38
.56
.59
.55
.61
1.26
1.63
1.58
1.59
1.60
1.41
1.63
1.53
1.65
1.54
.38
.56
.58
.58
.60
1955...
1956...
1957. ..
1958. ..
1959...
1.49
1.51
1.55
1.65
1.51
1.48
1.54
1.54
1.67
1.49
1.47
1.54
1.56
1.68
1.48
1.45
1.54
1.59
1.66
1.47
1.46
1.55
1.59
1.64
1.46
1.47
1.55
1.58
1.61
1.48
.47
.63
.58
.59
.49
1.49
1.58
1.58
1.56
1.54
1.46
1.57
1.61
1.56
1.54
1.48
.56
.61
.55
.54
1.48
1.56
1.6?
1.52
1.55
1.49
1.55
1.65
1.52
1.52
1.48
1.53
1.55
1.67
1.49
.46
.55
1.59
1.64
1.47
1.47
1.59
1.59
1.57
1.52
1.48
1.56
1.63
1.53
1.54
.47
.56
.59
.60
.51
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1.50
1.61
1.50
1.52
1.47
.52
.60
.51
.50
.48
1.55
1.57
1.50
1.50
1.49
1.54
1.58
1.50
1.49
1.48
1.57
1.56
1.51
1.50
1.47
1.57
1.53
1.53
1.49
1.48
.58
.55
1.53
1.47
1.46
1.59
1.52
1.52
1.50
1.47
1.58
1.52
1.52
1.50
1.46
.59
.50
.52
.49
.49
1.61
1.50
1.50
1.51
1.48
1.59
1.49
1.53
1.48
1.45
1.52
1.59
1.50
1.51
1.48
1.56
1.56
1.51
1.49
1.48
1.58
1.53
1.52
1.49
1.46
1.60
1.50
1.52
1.49
1.47
.57
.54
.51
.50
1.47
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1.45
1.43
1.56
1.55
1.56
.46
.44
.58
.55
.55
1.45
1.42
1.58
1.54
1.56
1.45
1.45
1.58
1.56
1.56
1.46
1.47
1.58
1.55
1.56
1.46
1.47
1.57
1.55
1.57
1.45
1.50
1.58
1.53
1.57
1.46
1.49
1.57
1.58
1.56
1.48
1.50
1.56
1.55
1.56
1.46
1.51
1.59
1.54
1.56
1.44
1.54
1.57
1.54
1.58
1.44
1.55
1.55
1.57
1.60
1.45
1.43
1.57
1.55
1.56
1.46
1.46
1.58
1.55
1.56
1.46
1.50
1.57
1.55
1.56
1.45
1.53
1.57
1.55
1.58
1.46
1.48
1.57
1.55
1.57
197Q...
1971...
1972...
1.61
1*61
1.6?
1.64
1.62
1.62
1.63
1.63
1.64
1.67
1.70
1.67
1.61
1.63
1.63
1.68
1.64
1950...
(NOVEMBER 1972)
111
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (u) (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Year
II Q
IQ
250.
Quarterly
IV Q
III Q
BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES? EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER
MILITARY GRANTS1 (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
...
...
..•
...
...
...
..•
..•
. «•
...
...
...
...
..•
...
1945
1946.....
1947
19U8
19U9.....
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955.....
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
604
651
142
192
282
1
1
1
1
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
818
342
449
568
978
179
277
352
416
2 176
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1
1
1
1
2
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
2
4
5
2
153
145
901
356
310
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
506
327
182
778
131
4
5
5
5
8
107
599
126
957
568
1960
1961
1962 .....
1963
1964
452
1 479
960
976
2 073
1
1
1
1
7
5
5
2
1
098
170
136
425
911
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1 373
1 288
1 085
172
12
1 762
1 134
1 051
553
-71
3 563
1970
1971
1972
548
588
1 606
1 522
1 351
449
307
2 065
1 367
1 438
8'^3
267
884
073
376
841
662
1 541
1 207
969
314
671
1970
1971
1972
898
967
989
712
517. U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ON CURRENT ACCOUNT 2
(MILLION* OF DOLLARS)
1948
1949
...
...
..
..
• •
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
...
...
...
...
,.
..
..
• .
• •
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
...
...
...
...
. ..
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1960
1963
1964
94
1 021
445
554
1 628
267
717
829
898
1 268
579
676
720
714
1 494
874
668
500
1 045
1 421
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
962
700
630
-190
-332
1 285
650
589
131
-592
1 173
377
532
56
-40
1970
1971
1972
133
194
168
667
184
273
369
768
Annual
TOTAL
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
337
160
004
573
903
3
4
4
5
7
479
940
414
132
702
1 634
796
1 021
491
331
1 300
971
699
8
332
6
4
3
1
070
190
858
223
610
610
346
1
1
1
1
1
022
113
177
211
955
1
1
1
1
1
2 089
TOTAL
1945
1946 .....
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
-2 125
302
-175
-1 949
-321
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
.* .
...
.* .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
*. .
...
...
..
..
. .
• •
..
..
. .
..
...
-345
-1 722
3 556
-5
-2 138
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. •
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
-1 174
4
-1 003
-1 292
-4
.* .
8 992
1 993
580
815
086
495
215
814
1960
1961
1962
1963 .....
1964 .....
841
552
302
-480
-76
4 263
2 280
2 055
-484
-1 035
1967 •••••
-137
356
521. U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS— NET LIQUIDITY BALANCE 2
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
IV Q
51 9. U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ON CURRENT ACCOUNT AND
LONG-TERM CAPITAL2 (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
...
...
...
...
...
1961.....
1962...,.
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1950
1951
1952 .....
1953
1954
7
11
6
6
III Q
515. U. S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ON GOODS •SERVICES AND REMITTANCES 2
(MILLIONS OP DOLLARS)
TOTAL
1 892
3 817
2 356
532
1 959
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1947.....
II Q
1945
1946 .....
1947
1948
1949
1963
1964
1945
1946
IQ
...
807
617
518
218
1
1
1
2
1962.....
Year
Annual
1
3
2
3
5
1965
1966
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
522.
TOTAL
-346
157
-407
-1 050
744
-399
799
-304
-587
22
-59
-414
187
353
-148
-373
-543
-480
-U
-626
-955
-423
-444
-359
-264
-180
-147
-138
103
-2 034
-197
-669
-860
-483
-1 127
-518
-506
-1 837
-703
407
-1 251
-605
-347
-856
U.S. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS ON OFFICIAL SETTLEMENTS BASIS2
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
-1
-1
-3
-1
-3
846
744
280
444
Oil
-3 059
TOTAL
1945
19^6
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
*•.
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
..*
...
...
...
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
...
...
...
...
...
.«.
...
*-.
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1955
1956
1957 .....
1958
1959
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
..•
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
..•
...
...
...
-675
-564
-1 007
-1 287
-139
-890
111
-423
-1 022
-419
-920
-679
-495
-201
-861
-1 195
-1 124
-942
-208
-1 278
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
676
251
864
713
696
I960 .....
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
-1 108
-723
-887
-804
-1 381
-193
-366
-998
-60
-3 079
-622
-434
-967
-311
-2 074
-557
-628
-1 830
-436
406
-2
-2
-4
-1
-6
477
151
683
610
122
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970.....
-1 332
-854
-765
-898
-3 851
1970
1971
1972
I960
1961...,.
1971
1972
2
This !
This i
112
1961
1962 .....
1963
1964
-610
693
-360
-947
-495
-982
-479
-971
-108
-312
-1 455
-739
-915
95
-521
-3
-1
-2
-1
-1
-709
-436
-1 765
-336
1 330
186
-146
-674
1 931
882
19
561
6O
376
-496
-788
240
-1 038
-330
980
-1 289
219
-3 418
1 641
2 702
-2 793
-2 065
-1 869
-3 110
-9 839
-360
-828
-408
-979
-207
403
348
650
934
534
(NOVEMBER 1972)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol @ (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Year
II Q
IQ
Quarterly
IV Q
III Q
252. EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICEStEXCLUDlNG TRANSFERS UNDER
MILITARY GRANTS1 (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1945
1946
1947
19U8
1949.....
1950.....
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. *
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Annual
Year
253.
TOTAL
14
19
16
15
792
819
861
834
1945
1946
1947 .....
1948
1949
13
18
18
17
17
893
864
122
078
889
1950
1951
1952 .....
1953
1954
19
23
26
23
23
948
772
653
217
652
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
252
016
116
497
661
8
9
10
11
13
184
274
036
847
940
8
9
10
12
13
244
845
171
445
864
8
9
10
12
14
634
972
720
391
129
32
38
41
48
53
310
108
041
178
591
1970
1971
1972
14 477
10
10
11
12
14
249
641
474
670
2^7
10
10
11
13
14
128
918
547
286
526
10
11
11
12
14
175
179
689
705
800
39
43
46
50
55
408
277
177
603
502
1970
1971
1972
15 375
...
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
10
14
13
12
12
203
243
449
412
929
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
14
17
19
16
16
424
556
562
414
458
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
3 811
3 390
3 959
684
095
077
058
233
4
4
5
5
6
916
806
335
593
197
5
5
5
5
6
032
037
332
666
417
5
5
5
5
6
018
169
035
935
631
19
20
20
22
25
650
107
779
252
478
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
5
7
7
7
7
679
188
680
938
488
6
7
7
8
9
9"<3
165
708
371
484
6
7
7
8
9
857
400
658
882
574
6
7
7
8
9
969
534
592
385
871
26
29
30
33
36
438
287
638
576
417
1965
1966
1967 ••••«
1968
1969
41 963
1970
1971 •••••
1972
10 565
10 705
10 462
540. U.S. INVESTMENT INCOME, MILITARY . SALES ? AND OTHER
SERVICES EXPORTS? EXCLUDING MILITARY GRANTS1 (MIL. DOL. )
...
...
...
...
...
9
11
10
10
10
081
176
838
975
353
...
...
...
•. .
•• .
...
...
...
...
...
11
12
13
12
15
527
803
291
952
310
...
...
3
3
4
4
4
854
433
074
214
591
3
3
4
4
4
646
804
109
365
736
3
3
4
4
4
433
892
076
382
916
14
14
16
17
18
744
519
218
Oil
647
7 821
7 576
5
6
6
8
9
482
165
465
134
568
5
6
6
8
9
564
595
542
568
271
5
6
7
8
9
770
676
153
441
381
21
25
26
32
35
496
463
821
964
796
9 731
9 831
050
404
680
027
661
9 968
10 269
39 799
TOTAL
028
722
596
621
,
..
..
..
• •
...
...
...
...
...
1
2
2
2
918
229
786
742
3
4
4
4
4
690
621
673
666
960
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
2
3
4
5
5
920
871
928
571
577
...
...
...
...
...
5
6
7
6
7
524
216
091
803
194
1955
1956
1957 .....
1958
1959
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
6
6
7
7
8
268
824
461
909
032
3
3
3
3
1950
1951
1952
1953... ..
1954
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
067
973
557
874
...
...
...
5
5
7
6
...
t
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
TOTAL
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
..,
. ..
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
•• .
.*.
59 307
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
15 093
54 1. FOREIGNERS' INVESTMENT INCOME? MILITARY EXPENDITURES?
AND OTHER SERVICES IMPORTS1 (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
1945
1946.....
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
4
5
5
5
6
10 231
...
...
...
...
...
764
097
265
213
...
1960
1961
1962... ..
1963.....
1964.....
1970.....
1971
1972
14 943
. 0 .
537. MERCHANDISE IMPORTS? ADJUSTED? EXCLUDING MILITARY 2
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
11
16
13
12
...
...
.. •
14 795
1945
1946
1947 •••••
1948 .....
1949
...
...
...
...
...
795
627
752
861
342
7
9
10
11
11
858
538
467
946
968
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
*< .
...
1965 .....
1966
1967
1968
1969
8
10
11
11
11
...
001
047
766
546
930
383
173
382
646
713
1965
1966
1967.....
1968
1969
.. .
12
15
15
16
15
23
23
25
26
28
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
»•.
985
202
343
616
...
490
772
508
603
281
...
...
...
6
8
10
9
.•.
.•.
...
...
• .
.f . .
...
...
.«.
538
083
475
839
475
27
28
30
32
37
...
...
...
...
...
••t
5
6
6
6
7
044
410
657
617
606
...
...
...
TOTAL
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
851
548
384
806
238
7
7
7
8
9
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
5
5
6
6
7
030
225
736
222
414
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
014
599
334
593
094
7
7
7
8
9
536. MERCHANDISE EXPORTS? ADJUSTED. EXCLUDING MILITARY GRANTS1
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
IMPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES1
(MILLIONS OP DOLLARS)
Annual
6
5
6
6
7
832
941
783
161
072
62 870
IV Q
984
547
192
412
907
6
6
7
8
9
15 805
ill Q
5
5
6
6
6
588
198
334
604
189
15 932
II Q
17
19
20
20
23
6
7
7
7
9
15 762
IQ
...
...
I960.....
1961. ....
1962
1963
1964
1
2
2
2
2
904
103
257
546
956
1
2
2
2
2
916
135
448
568
875
1
2
2
2
2
998
188
404
556
997
2
2
2
2
2
026
241
622
682
975
7
8
9
10
11
840
665
729
351
803
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
2
2
2
2
2
173
157
233
362
503
2
2
2
2
2
160
166
260
379
503
2
2
2
2
2
205
144
275
441
502
2
2
2
2
2
105
191
399
457
559
8
8
9
9
10
639
654
164
635
066
1965... ..
1966.....
1967.....
1968
1969
3
3
3
4
4
179
350
787
008
480
3 316
3 476
3 766
4 299
473
3
3
3
4
4
271
518
889
404
952
3
3
4
4
4
206
645
097
320
929
12
13
15
17
19
970
990
539
027
085
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969 .....
2 572
2 989
3 455
3 676
4 085
2
3
3
3
4
702
109
571
713
372
2
3
3
3
4
680
250
629
877
593
2
3
3
3
4
864
296
567
950
748
10
12
14
15
17
814
645
220
214
795
1970
1971.....
1972
5 144
5 197
5 227
1970
1971
1972
4 746
4 964
ginning with 1967.
5 343
20 907
4 975
4 824
19 508
(NOVEMBER 1972)
113
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Year
IQ
II Q
Quarterly
III Q
Annual
542. INCOME ON U.S. INVEs TMENTS ABROAD 1
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1945
1947
1948
1949
1950.....
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
•* ,
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
•* .
...
...
...
Year
II Q
IQ
IV Q
III Q
Annual
IV Q
543. INCOME ON FOREIGN INVESTMENTS IN THE U.S.1
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
...
...
,, ,
...
..,
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
., ,
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
...
...
...
...
...
772
1 102
1 340
1 395
1945 .....
1946
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1
1
1
1
2
593
882
828
910
227
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
2
2
2
2
3
444
662
817
845
043
TOTAL
...
...
.•,
*, ,
...
...
...
...
.•.
...
...
...
...
...
...
..
..
..
..
..
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
•• •
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
212
245
280
333
369
414
421
461
420
489
568
639
669
828
1960
1961
1962
1963...,.
1964
946
1 124
1 186
372
601
1
1
1
1
944
110
294
3->6
580
999
166
293
374
636
1
1
1
1
1
052
205
446
467
583
3
4
5
5
6
939
604
219
539
399
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
290
254
286
325
370
279
255
289
337
375
278
266
297
351
373
253
274
297
371
404
1
1
1
1
1
098
050
167
386
524
1965
1966
1967...,.
1968...,.
1969
792
808
966
2 126
2 472
1
1
1
2
2
857
883
950
373
586
782
901
2 151
2 398
2 706
1
1
2
2
2
662
988
244
339
775
7
7
8
9
10
092
581
310
233
539
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
418
498
601
696
929
455
515
600
744
1 078
440
582
589
775
1 242
487
611
635
800
1 315
1
2
2
3
4
797
206
423
013
564
1970.....
1971
1972
2 936
2 779
2 863
2 850
11 426
1970
1971
1972
1 344
1 322
1 284
1 217
5 167
544. RECEIPTS FROM FOREIGN TRAVELERS IN THE U.S.2
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
...
271
364
334
392
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
• ,,
...
...
...
...
•,•
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
. ,.
...
...
...
...
...
462
573
631
700
...
...
...
...
...
419
473
550
574
595
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
. ..
...
...
...
. .*
754
757
840
929
1 009
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
654
705
785
825
902
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
. ..
...
...
...
...
1
1
1
1
1
153
275
372
460
610
227
237
250
253
297
237
240
231
253
303
231
242
229
264
315
919
947
957
1 015
1 207
1960
1961
1962 •••••
1963
1964
435
440
466
503
531
447
437
483
525
544
437
442
488
545
555
431
466
502
541
581
1
1
1
2
2
750
785
939
114
211
319
374
412
433
498
337
394
392
518
347
410
414
451
519
377
412
428
460
523
1
1
1
1
2
380
590
646
775
058
1965
1966 •••••
1967
1968
1969
600
644
707
760
829
603
676
843
738
853
610
666
914
788
865
625
671
743
744
860
2
2
3
3
3
438
657
207
030
407
556
574
590
599
2 319
1970
1971
1972 •••••
936
998
1 027
1 012
t
t
1945
1946
1947
1948.....
1949
...
...
...
.•,
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1950
1951
1952
1953.....
1954
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
..»
...
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959.....
...
•. *
...
...
...
...
...
...
•*.
...
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
224
228
247
245
292
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
546. MILITARY SALES TO FOREIGNERS4
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
547. U.S. MILITARY EXPENDITURES ABROAD 2
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
3 973
TOTAL
...
493
455
799
621
...
...
...
. .,
...
...
...
•. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
•. *
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
192
182
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
«• ,
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1
2
2
2
576
270
054
615
642
...
..*
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
200
161
375
300
302
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
•• ,
...
,••
•, •
,,.
.. •
...
...
...
...
2
2
3
3
3
901
949
216
435
107
195
151
88
111
154
127
192
86
94
204
148
198
335
402
656
657
747
1960
1961
1962 .....
1963
1964
781
786
770
763
747
769
781
763
748
737
801
705
761
726
699
737
727
810
725
697
3
2
3
2
2
087
998
105
961
880
207
196
329
302
407
188
214
329
343
328
229
203
240
392
441
206
216
341
356
336
830
829
1 240
1 392
1 512
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
676
877
1 085
1 103
1 198
719
925
1 075
1 112
1 187
763
975
1 106
1 147
1 221
794
987
1 112
1 173
1 251
2
3
4
4
4
952
764
378
535
856
273
441
329
436
1 478
1970
1971
1972
1 180
1 259
1 210
1 203
4 852
1945
1946.....
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
...
...
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
...
...
...
...
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
...
...
...
.,.
.
.
.
I960
1961
1962
1963
1964
71
86
110
187
207
89
1 2
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
114
545. PAYMENTS BY U.S. TRAVELERS ABROAD 3
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL
...
.r.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
(NOVEMBER 1972)
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series
39, Delinquency Rate, 30 Days and Over, Total Installment
sidiaries, foreign branches, holding companies,
affiliates, and to other institutions except banks.
This series measures the number of delinquent bank-held
consumer installment loans as a percent of the total number
of bank-held consumer installment loans outstanding. Installment loans are those requiring repayment in two or
more scheduled payments. A delinquent loan is defined
as one having an installment past due for 30 days or more.
Prior to September 1963, the data were simple averages
of delinquency rates for six types of consumer installment
loans: Personal, FHA Title I, home appliance, automobiledirect, automobile- indirect, and property improvement.
Beginning in October 1963, the data are a weighted average
of these types of loans. Also mobile-home loans are included
in the data starting with August 1970.
F°r BCD, a weekly series is derived by summing the
amount of commercial and industrial loans and the amount of
loans sold outright as reported to the Federal Reserve
System. The monthly series is the arithmetic mean of
weekly data. The data beginning with November 1968 are
seasonally adjusted by means of the Census X-ll seasonal
adjustment program. Prior to that date, the National Bureau
of Economic Research seasonally adjusted the data.
Each of the above types of loans falls into one of the four
principal classes of installment credit: Automobile paper,
other consumer goods paper, repair and modernization
loans, and personal loans.
"Automobile paper" and "other consumer goods paper"
represent credit extended for the purpose of purchasing
automobiles or other consumer goods and, in most cases,
secured by the items purchased. "Repair and modernization
loans1* include both FHA insured and uninsured loans made
to finance the maintenance and/or improvement of owneroccupied dwelling units. "Personal loans" include all other
loans for consumer purposes, such as consolidation of
consumer debts, payments of taxes and medical, educational,
or travel expenses, etc. Some personal loans are used for
the purchase of consumer goods; but since they are not
secured by the goods, they are not reported as commodity
paper under automobile or other consumer goods.
The survey sample for this series includes approximately
500 banks selected to provide coverage in the 50 States and
the District of Columbia. For the most part, the reporting
banks are the larger banks in the major metropolitan
centers.
Beginning in December 1964, data for this series represent the percent of installment loans delinquent at the end
of bimonthly periods ending in February, April, June,
August, October, and December. Data for January 1948
through October 1964 represent the delinquency rate as
of the last day of each month.
This series is inversely related to general business
fluctuations; i.e., it moves upward during periods of business
decline and downward during periods of business expansion.
The data are seasonally adjusted by the means of the
Census X-ll seasonal adjustment program.
Source: The American Bankers Association.
72. Commercial and Industrial Loans Outstanding
This series measures the average dollar amount of
business loans outstanding at the end (last Wednesday) of each
month. Included are data on all loans for commercial and
industrial purposes except those secured by real estate.
Loans to financial institutions and loans for the purpose of
purchasing or carrying securities are excluded.
The data are based on reports to the Federal Reserve
System by approximately 330 banks. Included in the reports
are data on the amount of commercial and industrial loans
outstanding as of Wednesday of each week and the amount
of loans sold outright during each week to their own sub-
other
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding is classified
as a lagging indicator in BCD.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
112. Net Change in Bank Loans to Businesses
This series measures the change during the month in
the amount of commercial and industrial loans outstanding
(series 72). These changes are obtained by subtracting
the figure for a given month from that for the following
month. This change is put at annual rate and entered on the
later month.
Change in business loans is classified as a leading
indicator in BCD.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
93. Free Reserves (member bank excess reserves minus
borrowings)
This series measures the difference between excess
reserves of member banks and member bank borrowings
from the Federal Reserve System, or equivalently, is the
difference between member bank reserve balances and the
sum of their required reserves and their borrowings from
the System. When total borrowings of some banks exceed
surpluses of others the difference is termed "net borrowed
reserves." Conversely when surpluses exceed borrowings it
is termed "free reserves." Free reserves is a partial
reflection of the credit potential of the banking system.
Data on free reserves are reported by the approximately
5,800 banks which are members of the Federal Reserve
System. Required reserves are minimum balances required
to be maintained by member banks pursuant to Federal
Reserve regulations. These reserve requirements which
vary from time to time, are measured as a percent of deposit
liabilities and depend upon the type and amount of deposits.
Prior to December 1959, the only permissible legal reserves
were balances with the Federal Reserve Banks; since then,
the inclusion of vault cash has been allowable.
Weekly and monthly data are averages of daily figures
reported to the Federal Reserve weekly by member banks.
Beginning with January 1964 estimates of vault cash and
reserve balances have been computed by the Federal Reserve
Board and used until final figures from member banks
become available.
The monthly estimates that are published in BCD are
computed by averaging data for weeks to date ending on
Wednesday.
In BCD the series is classified as a roughly coincident
economic indicator.
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
115
G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
Arabic number indicates latest
calendar month of
data plotted ("7"=
July); Roman number indicates
latest quarter for
which data are
nlotted ("ill" =
third quarter)
HOW TO READ CYCLICAL (RECOVERY) COMPARISON CHARTS
These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of the most recent
business contraction (beginning with the cyclical peak in November 1969) and the
recovery and subsequent expansion (beginning with the business cycle trough in
November 1970).
To set the current cyclical movements into historical perspective,
cyclical paths over generally similar historical periods are shown.
The graphic
presentations of the data for the selected period are superimposed according to a
special chart design.
The explanatory statements below provide a key to this chart
design.
This scale shows
deviations (percent or unit differences) from
reference peak
levels. For units
^of measure see
comparison table
on the chart.
1. The objective of the chart is to compare
the pattern of the current recovery with
historical recovery patterns to facilitate
critical assessment of the amplitude, duration, and vigor of the indicators' current
movements.
2. The vertical line represents reference
trough dates.
The current recovery phase,
beginning with the business cycle trough in
November 1970, and the selected historical
recovery phases, beginning with the troughs
in October 1949, August 1954, April 1958,
and February 1961 are presented graphically
so that their trough dates are placed along
this vertical line.
This scale shows
actual series
units (See current
data table in
chart for the unit
of measure) and
applies only to
the current business cycle (heavy
solid line).
3. The horizontal line represents the levey
of the data at the beginning point of the
most recent business contraction, November
1969,
the business cycle peak that preceded
the most recent trough.
It also represents
data levels at other business cycle peaks
(November 1948, July 1953, July 1957, and
May I960) that precede the troughs used for
this analysis.
The peak levels, which also
are called recovery levels—i.e., the levels
at which recoveries from the preceding contraction are achieved—are aligned along the
horizontal line for each business cycle
depicted.
4. To facilitate comparison, deviations from
the previous peak level are computed and
plotted for each cycle (consisting of the
contraction and portions of the subsequent
recovery and expansion).
These deviations
from the peak levels may 1.e either percent
changes or differences in original series units
depending upon the nature of the time series.
For most series percent changes are used.
For series containing negative values (such
as percent changes) and series measured in
percent units (such as interest rates) deviations are shown in terms of differences. The
same type of series could be, and in many
instances are, plotted as actual data in
original series units rather than deviations
from preceding peak levels.
Mar.'71
Apr.'71
May '71
June'71
I i I I/I I I I I I I
This table shows
actual data for
the most recent
peak and trough,
and for the selected time periods thereafter.
122.2
122.7
123.4
124.2
126.1
I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
Months from ref.
troughs
11/69
I 5/70
11/70
5/71 11/71
Dates relative
to current
trough Nov. '70
This comparison table shows deviations (percent or unit
differences) from the preceding reference peak levels or the
actual data for specified number of months or quarters after
reference trough dates. The median is determined as described
in statement 7.
Symbols if and Q mark levels of the 1949 and 1954 recoveries,
respectively, at selected time periods. (See statement 7.)
5. The influence of excessive irregular
fluctuations in series with MCD of 3 or more
is modified by using the average for the 3
months centered on the peak as the reference
peak level.
60 For series that move counter to movements
in general business activity (e.g., the unemployment rate), an inverted scale is used;
i.e., declines in the data are shown as upward movements in the plotted lines, and increases in data as downward movements in
plotted lines.
7. For each chart, four curves and two sets
of points are shown.
One curve describes
the current recovery (heavy solid linerj^^*) .
To facilitate historical comparison and avoid
overcrowding on the chart, the median pattern of the four post-World War II recoveries
(those beginning in 1949, 1954, 1958, and
116
Designations:
1'Coincident,"
''Leading," "Lagging," and "Unclassified" indicate the NBER
timing classification for the
series.
This scale measures time in
months before and
after reference
trough dates. The
negative side indicates contractions, the positive side indicates recoveries
and expansions.
This time scale
shows calendar
months or quarters
corresponding to
the current contraction, recovery
and expansion.
(^= Current business cycle (reference) peak
© = Current business cycle (reference) trough
1961)
is shown as another curve (heavy broken line:———). The curve representing the
historical median pattern passes through the
median points of the four individual recovery
paths. (Median is defined here as the average of the two middle points). The two most
recent individual recoveries (those beginning in 1958 and 1961 are also shown as plotted lines (solid line:
, and knotted line:
» • » •», respectively).
The two sets of
points display the relative levels for the
remaining two recoveries (those beginning in
1949 (Tfr) and 1954 (Q)) at four points in time
(trough date, 12 and 24 months after trough
date, and at the same time point as the latest
month plotted).
8. The business cycle peaks and troughs use
throughout the recovery comparison chart
are those designated by the National Burea
of Economic Research and are shown below
The Roman numerals in parentheses indicat
the peak and trough quarters used for timin
quarterly data:
Peak
Nov. '48 (IVQ'48)
July '53 (IIQ '53)
July '57 (I HQ1 57)
May '60 (IIQ'60)
Nov. '69 (IVQ'69)
Trough
Oct.
Aug.
Apr.
Feb.
Nov.
'49
'54
'58
'61
'70
(IVQ'49)
(IIIQ'54
(IIQ '58)
(IQ'61)
(IVQ'70)
G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued
M1111111111111111
M iiiiM m
741. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers,
private nonfarm
47. Industrial production
-I +12
-1-8
•120
+4
0115
0
•110
23 months after
ref. trough
Jan.'72
Feb.'72
Mar.'72
Apr.'72
May.'72
June'72
July'72
Aug.'72
Sep.'72
Oct.'72
Percent
deviations
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
17.4
2.1
8.0
9.9
5.8
8.9
108.7
110.0
111.2
112.8
113.2
113.4
113.9
115.0
115.7
116.7
+4
• 108
+2
• 106
0
• 104
•102
•100
Ref.
trough
year
• 110
Current data
(Index: 1967=100)
~"
-12
+6
109.1
108.7
109.2
110.0
109.6
109. S
110.0
110.1
110.3
110.8
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
Percent
*'49
858. Output per man-hour,
total private nonfarm
m\
M 4\
1970-72
Jf Median\
+10
•112
+8
•110
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
+6
•108
+4
•106
+2
•104
•102
Current data
(Index: 1967=100)
7 quarters after
ref. trough
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
+6
-12
11/69
5/70
11/70
5/71
+12
11/71
+18
+24
5/72
11/72-*
I 1 I I I I I M
Months from ref.
i troughs
—* -12
-6
Dates relative
• to current
•
trough Nov. '70
11/69
5/70
105.8
106.6
107.3
108.5
109.9
111.3
113.1
IQ'71
IIQ'71
IIIQ'71
IVQ'71
IQ'72
IIQ'72
IIIQ'72
M
I I II
I II
+6
11/70
I I I I I I I I II
+12
5/71 11/71
+18
+24
5/72 11/72
117
G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued
1111111111111111111111111111111111
781 c.
M M II M M I IM M I IM M IIM M I IM M II
Percent change in consumer price index
(6-mo. span)*
114. Treasury bill rote
*'49
+7
+6
+5
+4
+3
+2
+1
0
-1
85c.
Jan.'72
Feb.'72
Mar.'72
Apr.'72
May '72
June'72
July'72
Aug.'72
Sep.'72
Oct.'72
Percent change in money supply
(6-mo. span)*
115. Treasury bond yields
+12
+8
+4
0
*'49
I
958-60
1 I
Jan.'72
Feb.'72
Mar.'72
Apr.'72
May '72
June'72
July'72
Aug.'72
Sep.'72
Oct.'72
Nov.'72
M
-12
11/69
M
M
+6
5/70
11/70
'49* Current data
(Percent)
*'49
24 months after
ref. trough
1949
+ 5.43
+0.30
1954
1958
-2.79
1961
. +3.27
1970
"+6.65
+1.78
Median
I I I
-4
Current data
(Percent)
24 months after
ref. trough
5/71
I I I I I1
+12
11/71
Jan.'72
Feb.'72
Mar.'72
Apr.'72
May '72
June'72
July'72
Aug.'72
Sep.'72
Oct.'72
Nov.'72
+1.23
+2.81
+5.18
+6.41
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
+6.85
+7.36
+ 9.27
+8.04
+6.94
+6.30
!+6.65
1 I
I
II
Months from ref.
• troughs
i
+18
+24
5/72
Dates relative
m
11/72* • to current
trough Nov. '70
I I I
I I I
I II
-12
• 11/69
MM
+6
5/70
11/70
+12
5/71 11/71
5.62
5.67
5.66
5.74
5.64
5.59
5.59
5.59
5.70
5.69
3
5.53
|MM.|
+18
5/72 11/72
•^Percent changes are plotted at the terminal month of the span.
1
November estimate (••••) includes weeks ended November 1 and 8. 2November estimate (••••) includes weeks ended November
2, 9, and 16. 3November estimate (••••) includes weeks ended November 3, 10, and 17.
118
+24
ALPHABETICAL INDEX
Series Finding Guide
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
Tables
Charts
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
A
Accession rate, manufacturing
Anticipations and intentions, businessmen's
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . .
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Orders, new, manufacturing
Prices, selling, manufacturing
Prices, selling, manufacturing and trade
Prices, selling, retail trade
Prices, selling, wholesale trade
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade
Automobiles
Cars, new, purchased by households
Expenditures, personal consumption
Product, gross, constant dollars
2
See Employnnent and unem ployment.
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
D61
D446
D450
D440
D462
D460
0466
D464
D442
D444
46
46
47
46
47
47
47
47
46
46
430
234
249
11/68
7/71
45
84
S e e N I A - P e rsonal consumi tion expend tures.
See NIA - Gr oss national pr oduct.
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
7/71
7/71
7/71
7/71
7/71
7/71
7/71
7/71
7/71
7/71
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Tables
Charts
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
issue date) tissue date)
Compensation of employees-Continued
Earnings, avg. hrly., prod, wkrs., priv. nonfarm
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm
Earnings, real spendable average weekly
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . .
740
58,59
92
2/72
6/72
741
859
748
749
53
58,59
58
59
59
23
92
92
93
93
76
2/72
2/72
2/72
2/72
8/72
6/72
10/72
6/72
6/72
7/68
Composite indexes
Capital investment commitments
Coincident indicators, five
Coincident indicators, five, deflated
Coincident indicators, five, rate of change
Employment marginal adjustments
Financial flows sensitive
Inventory investment and purchasing
Lagging indicators, six
Leading indicators, twelve
Leading indicators, twelve, reverse trend adj
Profitability
814
820
825
820
813
817
815
830
811
810
816
38
37
37
65
38
38
38
37
38
37
38
83
83
83
5/72
1/72
1/72
12/71
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
83
83
83
83
83
83
83
11/68
11/68
11/68
5/72
5/72
B
Balance of payments - See also NIA - Foreign trade.
Balances
Banking and other capital transactions, net
Current account
Current account and long-term capital
Goods and services
Goods, services and remittances
Government grants and capital transactions, net . . . .
Liabilities, liquid
Liabilities, liquid and nonliquid
Liquidity net
Merchandise trade
Reserve position, U.S., official
Reserve transactions official
Special drawing rights, allocated to U.S
Exports
Goods and services
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Investment, foreign direct, in the U.S
Investment income, military sales and service
Merchandise, adjusted
Military sales to foreigners
Net goods and services
Orders, new, manufacturers' durable goods
Orders, new, nonelectrical machinery
Securities, U.S., purchases by foreigners
Total, excluding military aid
Transportation and services, receipts
Travelers, foreign, receipts from
Imports
Goods and services
Income on foreign investment in the U.S
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services
Investments abroad, U.S. direct
Merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Military expenditures abroad, U.S
Securities, foreign, U.S. purchases
Total, general
Transportation and services, payments for
Travelers abroad, U.S., payments by
tonds - See Interest rates,
iuilding - See Investment, fixed.
Jusiness failures, current liabilities
iusiness starts
Formation, business, net
Incorporations, new
tuying policy production materials
575
517
519
250
515
570
530
532
521
500
534
522
535
53
49
49
49,51
49
53
50
50
49
48
50
49
252
542
560
540
536
546
250
506
508
564
502
548
544
51
52
53
51
51
52
See Balance
48
48
53
48
52
52
253
543
51
52
541
561
537
547
565
512
549
545
51
53
51
52
53
48
52
52
14
*12
13
26
10/70
11/72
11/72
11/72
11/72
10/70
8/70
8/70
11/72
10/71
8/70
11/72
5/69
11/72
11/72
9/70
11/72
11/72
11/72
alances.
7/71
7/71
9/70
10/71
9/70
11/72
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
87
88
11/72
11/72
5/69
5/69
87
88
87
88
88
86
88
88
11/72
9/70
11/72
11/72
9/70
10/71
9/70
11/72
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
88
87
87
87
87
88
87
87
87
86
87
87
87
87
88
88
87
87
88
of payments 86
86
88
86
88
88
81
7/72
77
25,39
77
25
See Invento ies.
6/71
7/72
34
5/69*
5/69
5/69
5/69*
5/69
8/68#
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
C
anada- See International comparisons,
apacity adequacy manufacturers'
apacity utilization
Gap (potential GNP less actual)
Output to capacity, manufacturing
Potential GNP, constant dollars
apital consumption allowances
apital investment - See Investment, fixed,
ars- See Automobiles,
ash flow, net, corporate, constant dollars
ash flow, net, corporate, current dollars
ompensation of employees - See also NIA - National
and personal income.
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
44
207
850
206
296
See NIA - G oss national pr oduct.
9/72
96
62
See NIA - G oss national p oduct.
See NIA -Sc ving.
84
11/68
853
See Investme nt, fixed.
435
45
84
1/71
11/68
33
34
36,42
36
33,40
34
33
81
81
82
82
81
81
81
6/71
7/72
6/71
7/72
7/72
7/72
7/72
11/72
7/64
11/72
10/72
10/72
11/72
112
110
*72
66
*113
39
33
D
Defense
Contract awards, military prime
Expenditures abroad, U S. military
Obligations incurred, procurement
Obligations incurred, total
Orders new defense products
Orders, new, defense products industries
Purchases of goods and services
Sales, military to foreigners
Deficit or surplus, government - See NIA - Budget.
Depreciation
Diffusion indexes - See also Anticipations and intentions.
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing
Claims, avg. weekly initial, unemploy. insurance . . . .
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial materials prices
Industrial production
Orders, new, durable goods industries
Prices, 500 common stocks
Prices wholesale manufactured goods
Profits, manufacturing
Sales, retail stores
Workweek, avg., production workers, mfg
Discount rate
Disposable personal income - See NIA - National
and personal income.
Drawing rights
Durable goods
Automobiles - See Automobiles.
Expenditures, personal consumption - See NIA Personal consumption expenditures.
Inventories, business, change in
Orders, export, excluding motor vehicles
Orders, new
Orders, new, components
Orders unfilled
Orders, unfilled, change in
Orders, unfilled, to shipments
Sales final
625
547
621
616
648
647
264
546
7/72
89
55
See Balance f payments- Ir iports.
11/71
89
55
11/71
89
55
8/72
89
55
8/72
89
55
S e e N I A - G c vernment pure lases.
See Balance 3f payments - E xports.
296
S e e N I A - S a /mg.
D11
D5
D41
D23
D47
D6
D19
D58
034
054
01
63
63
64
63
64
63
63
64
63
64
63
114
See Interest ates.
535
See Balance 3f payments - B a ances.
97
98
98,100
97,100
98,101
97,99
97
98,102
97
98,102
97,99
9/71
11/71
10/71
6/72
11/71
11/71
11/71
1/71
7/72
1/71
10/71
9/68#
6/69*
4/69*
5/69*
6/69
6/72*
271
506
*6
06
96
25
852
270
See NIA - G oss private dorr estic investnnent.
See Balance of payments - E xports.
77
1 11/72 |9/68
25,39
See Diffusio T indexes.
9/68
78
9/72
27
9/68
9/72
79
29
9/68
96
9/72
62
See NIA - F lal sales.
2
841
*5
20
60
20,39
E
35
34
31
31
80
80
8/72
8/72
1/72
1/72
745
58,59
92
9/72
10/72
746
58,59
93
9/72
10/72
*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
1/71
416
Construction - See Investment, fixed.
Consumer goods, ratio of business equipment to
Consumer installment debt - See Credit.
Consumer prices - See Price indexes - Consumer.
Consumer sentiment
Costs - See Labor cost and Price indexes.
Credit
Bank loans to businesses, change in
Borrowing, total private
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Consumer installment debt
Consumer installment debt, change in
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Mortgage debt, change in
Earnings - See Compensation of employees.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
Civilian labor force, total
Claims, avg. weekly initial, unemploy. insurance . . . .
Claims, avg. weekly initial, unemploy. insurance,
diffusion index
Employed persons in civilian labor force
Employees, mfg. and trade, diffusion index
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
05
842
0446
10/71
4/72
10/71
8/68
4/72
6/69
See Diffusio n indexes.
I 4/72
60
94
See Anticipa tionsand intent ions.
|4/72
74
94
74
NIA means National Income and Product Accounts.
119
Series Finding Guide—Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Employment and unemployment-Continued
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, components .
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed . . . .
Job vacancies in manufacturing
Layoff rate manufacturing
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Man-hours in nonagricultural estab., rate of change . .
Marginal employment adjustments
Overtime hours, production workers, mfg
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Unemployed persons in civilian labor force
Unemployment rate, both sexes, 16-19 years
Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over . . . .
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over
Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present .
Unemployment rate, Negro and other races
Unemployment rate total
Unemployment rate, white
Workweek, production workers, components
Workweek, production workers, manufacturing
Equipment, business - See Investment, fixed.
Exports - See Balance of pmts. and NIA - Foreign trade.
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
Charts
Tables
*41
D41
46
860
50
3
48
48
813
21
42
21,41
See Diffusior
21
62
21
20
21
65
See Composi
20
21
e indexes.
74
75
843
846
845
*44
45
844
40
848
*43
847
D1
*1
60
60
60
22,42
22
60
22
60
22,41
60
See Diffusior
20,39
94
94
94
75
75
94
75
94
75
94
indexes.
74
75
ndexes.
74
96
74
74
75
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
issue date) '. ssue date)
10/71
8/68
12/70
11/72
10/71
11/71
11/71
10/72
8/68#
8/68#
8/68#
12/71
6/72
4/72*
4/72
4/72
4/72
6/72
10/71
4/72
6/72
4/72
6/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
6/69
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
10/71
8/68
F
Financial flows, sensitive
Foreign series- See International comparisons.
Foreign trade - See Balance of payments and NIA.
France - See International comparisons.
Free reserves
817
See Composi e indexes.
93
35
82
6/71
11/72
G
Government - See Balance of payments, Defense,
and NIA.
Gross national product - See Capacity utilization and
NIA.
H
Hours - See Employment and unemployment.
Housing
Residential structures - See NIA - Gross private
domestic investment.
Units authorized by local building permits
Units started, private, total
Vacancy rate, rental housing
*29
28
857
26,39
26
62
78
78
96
11/72
6/71
11/71
4/69
6/72
10/72
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
International comparisons-Continued
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
West Germany
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
Charts
Tables
Historica
Series
descriptions
data
(issue date) (issue date)
123
126
127
128
121
122
125
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
103
103
104
104
104
103
104
9/71
9/71
9/71
9/71
9/71
9/71
9/71
143
146
147
148
142
19
145
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72
4/71
6/72
Inventories
Business inventories, change in - See NIA - Gross
private domestic investment.
65
Finished goods, book value, manufacturers'
851
Inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
815
Investment and purchasing
412
Manufacturers', book value
414
Manufacturers', condition of
*71
Manufacturing and trade, book value
*31
Manufacturing and trade, change in
D450
Manufacturing and trade, diffusion index
Materials and supplies, change in mfrs.' book value . . 20
37
Materials purchased, higher inventories
26
Production materials, buying policy
286
Valuation, adjustment of, corporate profits
29
79
11/72
96
62
11/72
See Composi e indexes.
44
84
7/72
44
84
1/71
79
29,42
11/72
28,40
78
11/72
See Anticipa ions and inten ions.
28
79
11/72
28
78
6/71
28
79
6/71
See NIA - N a tional and pers onal income
Investment, fixed - See also NIA - Gross private
domestic investment.
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing
Capital appropriations, new, mfg., diffusion index . .
Capital investment commitments
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial . .
Construction contracts, total value
Construction expend., bus., mach. and equip, sales . .
Equipment, business, ratio to consumer goods
Foreign direct investments in the U.S
Orders, new, capital goods industries, nondefense . . .
Plant and equipment, contracts and orders
Plant and equipment, new business expenditures . . .
Plant and equip., new bus. expend., diff. index
U.S. direct investments abroad
97
11
D11
814
9
8
69
853
560
24
*10
*61
D61
561
78
27
9/71
26
77
9/71
See Diffusior indexes,
See Composi e indexes.
26
77
7/71
25
77
78
27
8/72*
62
96
10/71
See Balance f payments - xports.
26
77
7/72
25,39
77
7/72
27,42,43 78,84
7/71
ions,
See Anticipa :ions and inten
See Balance Df payments - 1 mports.
68
*62
63
*17
32
80
32,42
80
32
80
See Price Ind exes.
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
9/68
2/69
11/68
11/68
2/69
2/69
9/68
9/68#
11/68
9/68
9/68
11/68
Investments, financial - See Balance of payments,
Composite indexes, Interest rates, International
comparisons - Stock prices, and Price indexes - Stock.
Italy - See International comparisons.
J
1
Imports - See Balance of payments and NIA Foreign trade.
Income - See also Compensation of employees
and NIA - National and personal income.
Households, compared to year ago
Households, mean probability of change
Income on foreign investments in U.S
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Personal
Receipts for transportation and other
services, U.S. balance of payments
Receipts from foreign travelers in U.S
Industrial materials prices - See Price indexes - Materials.
Industrial production - See also International
comparisons.
U S components
U.S., index
U.S., rate of change
Interest, net
Interest rates
Business loans, short-term bank rate
Corporate bond yield
Mortgage yield, residential
Municipal bond yield
Treasury bill discount rate
Treasury bond yield
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
West Germany
Japan - See International comparisons.
L
420
425
543
542
*52
1/71
45
84
1/71
45
84
See Balance Df payments - 1 nports.
See Balance Df payments - 1 xports.
76
8/72
23,41
548
544
See Balance Df payments - 1 xports.
See Balance 3f payments - EIxports.
047
*47
47
288
*67
116
118
117
114
115
133
136
137
138
132
135
*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
120
See Diffusio indexes
23,41,67 76,103
65
10/71
11/70
11/68
11/68
7/68
8/72
5/72
8/72
7/68
11/68
10/72
3
See Employr lent and unem Dloyment.
85
102
33
33
81
81
12/71
12/71
10/72
10/72
103
33
81
12/71
10/72
602
601
600
298
54
89
54
89
54
89
S e e N I A - S a ving.
8/72
8/72
8/72
7/68#
7/68#
7/68#
270
274
273
15
15
18
10/72
10/72
1/72
10/69
10/69
M
11/68
11/68
See NIA - N c tional and per inal income
36,42
35
36
35
35
35
82
82
82
82
82
82
11/71
6/71
7/71
6/71
6/71
6/71
7/64*
7/64
7/64
7/64
7/64
66
66
66
66
66
66
103
103
103
103
103
103
6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
#The "number" for this series title was cl
Labo cost per unit of gross product
Labo cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Labo cost per unit of output, total private economy . . . .
Labo cost, price per unit of
Labo force - See Employment and unemployment.
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Loans -See Credit.
Machinery - See Investment, fixed.
Merchandise trade - See Balance of payments.
Military -See Defense.
Money supply, change in
Money supply
Money supply and time deposits
Money supply, time deposits, and deposits
at nonbank thrift institutions
N
National income and product accounts
Budget
Expenditures, Federal
Receipts, Federal
Surplus or deficit, Federal
Surplus or deficit, government
Final sales - See also Sales.
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Total, constant dollars
since the publication date shown.
NIA means National Income and Product Accounts.
71
71
72
Series Finding Guide—Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
National income and product accounts-Continued
Foreign trade - See also Balance of payments
Exports, goods and services
Exports, goods and services, net
Exports, goods and services, net, percent of GNP . . .
Imports, goods and services
Government purchases (goods and services)
Federal Government
Federal Government, percent of GNP
Federal, State and local governments
Federal, State and local govts., constant dollars
National defense
State and local governments
State and local governments, percent of GNP
Gross national product
Auto product, gross, constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
National and personal income
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, pet. of national income
Disposable personal income constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dol.
Disposable personal income, per capita, current dol. .
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation adj
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation adj.,
percent of national income
Proprietors' income
Proprietors' income, percent of national income . . . .
Rental income of persons
Rental income of persons, pet. of national income . .
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods
Durable goods, except autos
Nondurable goods
Personal consumption expend., total, constant dol . .
Personal consumption expend., total, current dol . . .
Personal consumption expend., total, pet. of GNP . .
Services
„
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
( ssue date) ( ssue date)
0
252
250
250A
253
13
13
19
13
71
71
73
71
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
5/69
5/69
10/69
5/69
262
262A
260
261
264
266
266A
14
19
14
18
14,55
14
19
71
73
71
72
71,89
71
73
10/72
10/72
10/72
1/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/69
10/69
10/69
18
9,18,23,
41,61,
65
9,23,41
65
61
61
9
9
9
56
72
69,76
95
69
69,76
69
,95
95
69
69
69
90
1/72
8/72
8/72
8/72
8/72
10/67
10/69
10/69
10/69
8/71°
8/71
8/72
8/72
10/69
10/69
10/69
243
246
245
245 A
271
275
247
241
241 A
240
242
248
244
244A
12
18
12,28
19
15
15
18
12
19
12
12
18
12
19
70
72
70,78
73
71
71
72
70
73
70
70
72
70
73
9/72
1/72
9/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
1/72
9/72
10/72
9/72
9/72
1/72
9/72
10/72
10/69
10/69
10/69
280
280A
225
224
227
226
288
288A
220
222
286
16
19
10
10
10
10
16
19
10
10
16
71
73
69
69
69
69
72
73
69
69
72
10/72
10/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
10/72
10/72
8/71
9/72
10/72
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
286A
282
282A
284
284A
19
16
19
16
19
73
71
73
71
73
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
234
232
233
236
231
230
230A
237
11
11
11
11
11,18
11
19
11
70
70
70
70
70
70
73
70
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
10/72
9/72
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
296
290
292
854
17
17
17
62
72
72
72
9.6
8/71
10/72
10/72
8/72
10/69
10/69
10/69
7/68
294
298
17
17
72
72
8/71
8/71
10/69
10/69
236
275
274
S e e N I A - P e rsonal consumr. tion expenc tures.
S e e N I A - G oss private dorrlestic invest ment.
Sfifi IMIA-Fi nal sales
249
*205
GNP constant dollars rate of change
205
GNP, current dollars
*200
GNP, current dollars, rate of change
200
GNP, gap (potential less actual)
207
GNP, potential, constant dollars
206
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
217
Per capita GNP, current dollars ;
215
Price deflator, implicit
210
Price index, fixed weighted, gross private product . . . 211
Gross private domestic investment
Equipment, producers' durable
Inventories, business, change in, constant dollars . . .
Inventories, business, change in, current dollars . . . .
Inventories, business, change in, percent of GNP
Inventories, business, durable goods, change in
Inventories, business, nondurable goods, change in . .
Investment, fixed, nonresidential, constant dollars . .
Investment, fixed, nonresidential, current dollars . . .
Investment, fixed, nonresidential, percent of GNP . .
Investment, gross private domestic, total
Structures, nonresidential
Structures, residential, constant dollars
Structures, residential, current dollars
Structures, residential, percent of GNP
Tables
Series
Historical
descriptions
data
(issue date issue date)
10/69
10/69
19/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders, new and unfilled - See Anticipations and
intentions, Balance of payments. Defense,
Durable goods, and Investment, fixed.
Output - See Industrial production, NIA - Gross national
product, and Productivity.
121
See Internatio nal compariso ns.
P
Plant and equipment - See Investment, fixed.
Price indexes
Consumer - See also International comparisons.
All items
Commodities less food
Food
Services
Deflators - See NIA - Gross national product.
Labor cost, price per unit of
Materials, industrial
Materials, industrial, components
Stock - See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, diffusion index
Wholesale
All commodities
Farm products
Foods and feeds, processed
Industrial commodities
Manufactured goods
Manufactured goods, components
Production - See Industrial production, Investment, fixed,
and NIA - Gross national product.
Productivity
Output per man-hour, total private economy
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm econ. . .
Profits - See also N IA - National and personal income.
Corporate, after taxes
Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars
Income originating, ratio of profits to
Manufacturing
Manufacturing and trade net
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Prcfitability
781
783
782
784
56,66
56
56
56
90,103
90
90
90
3/72
6/71
6/71
6/71
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
*17
*23
D23
30,40
80
30,40
79
See Diffusion indexes.
4/72
7/71
11/68
4/69
*19
D19
79
30,40
See Diffusion indexes.
11/71
5/69
750
752
751
55
58
D58
57
57
57
31,57
31,57
See Diffusion
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
770
858
58,59
58
9/72
9/72
10/72
6/68
91
91
91
80,91
80,91
indexes.
93
93
*16
18
22
D34
D442
15
816
30,40
79
8/72
30
79
8/72
30
80
8/72
See Diffusion ndexes.
See Anticipai onsand inten tons.
30
80
n/7i
See Compos! e indexes.
534
93
See Balance o f payments - E alances.
See Free rese rves.
57
851
69
410
*56
D444
*54
D54
59
24
76
8/72
See Inventori es.
See Investme nt, fixed.
44
84
7/72
24,41
76
11/72
See Anticipat ions and inten ;ions.
24,41
76
12/71
See Diffusior indexes.
24
76
8/72
*19
See Price ind jxes- Stock.
7/68
1/72
7/68
3/69
R
Reserve position U S official
Reserves, free
S
Salaries - See Compensation of employees.
Sales -See also NIA -Final sales.
Final sales
Inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Machinery and equip., and bus. construction expend.
Manufacturers' total value
Manufacturing and trade
Manufacturing and trade, net, diffusion index
Retail stores
Retail stores, components
Retail stores, constant dollars
Saving -See NIA -Saving.
Securities- See Balance of payments, Interest
rates. International comparisons- Stock prices,
and Price indexes -Stock.
Stock prices
Surplus or deficit, government - See NIA - Budget.
7/68
11/68
2/69
6/72
U
Saving
Capital consumption allowances
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving to disposable personal income
Profits, undistributed corporate plus inventory
valuation adjustment
Surplus or deficit, govt
Unemployment - See Employment and unemployment.
United Kingdom - See International comparisons.
V
Vendor performance
32
29
79
6/71
W
Nondurable goods
Expenditures, personal consumption
Inventories, business, change in
Sales, final
*Denotes series on the 1966NBER "short list" of indicators.
Wages and salaries - See Compensation of employees.
West Germany - See International comparisons.
Whnlocalp nriroc - ^oo Priro indpYOQ - Whnlooala
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
NIA means National Income and Product Accounts.
121
Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the report's six sections, series are listed in
numerical order according to series numbers. The series
numbers are for identification purposes only and do not
reflect series relationships or order. To find chart and table
page numbers, historical data, and series descriptions, consult
the "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide."
The alphabetic-numeric designations following each series
title and source indicate the charts and tables in which the
series may be found. See the table of contents for the chart
and table titles and page numbers. "M" indicates monthly
series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of
month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter).
The "A" following a series number indicates a component
series (same number) as a percent of an aggregate series, such
as GNP or national income. The series in section B preceded
by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list"
of cyclical indicators, chart B8. The "D" preceding a number
indicates a diffusion index.
253.
Imports of goods and services (Q).-Department c
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5, D:
260.
Government purchases of goods and services, tot
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Eci
nomic Analysis
(Af
261.
Government purchases of goods and services tote
1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bi
reau of Economic Analysis
(A1(
262.
Federal Government purchases of goods and sen
ices, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Burea
of Economic Analysis
(Af
233.
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods
except automobiles, in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A3)
234.
Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
236.
Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable
goods, in current dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
237.
Personal consumption expenditures, services, in
current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
240.
Gross private domestic investment, total (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A4)
241.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)
264.
Federal Government purchases of goods and ser
ices, national defense (Q).-Department of Cor
merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6, D!
State and local government purchases of goo
and services, total (Q).-Department of Commerc
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A
A National Income and Product
262A. Federal Government purchases of goods and ser
ices as a percent of gross national produ
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of EC
nomic Analysis
(AT
200.
Gross national product in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, B2, B8, E5)
241A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
266.
205.
Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, B2, B8, El, E5)
242.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)
Implicit price deflator, gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A1)
266A. State and local government purchases of goods ai
services as a percent of gross national produ
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of EC
nomic Analysis
(A1
243.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable equipment (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)
270.
Final sales, durable goods (Q).-Department
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A
Per capita gross national product in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)
244.
271.
Change in business inventories, durable goo
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of E(
nomic Analysis
(A
273.
Final sales (series 205 minus series 246), 19
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
Economic Analysis
(A1
210.
215.
217.
220.
222.
224.
Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)
National income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
244A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all
industries (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4, B4)
274.
Final sales, nondurable goods, (Q).-Department
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(X5
275.
245A. Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
Change in business inventories, nondurable got
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Ei
nomic Analysis
(/
280.
Compensation of employees (Q).-Department
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(/
245.
Personal income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
Disposable personal income in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)
246.
Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
225.
Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
226.
Per capita disposable personal income in current
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)
247.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (A10)
227.
Per capita disposable personal income in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)
248.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
230.
Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
249.
Gross auto product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
230A. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(AH)
250.
231.
Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A3, A10)
250A. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
232.
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
252.
280A. Compensation of employees as a percent of gr
national product (Q).-Department of Commer
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A
282.
122
Rental income of persons (Q).-Department
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(/
284A. Rental income of persons as a percent of gi
national product (Q).-Department of Commei
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A
286.
Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5, D2)
of Cc
(^
282A. Proprietors' income as a percent of gross natio
product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
Economic Analysis
(A
284.
Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5, D2)
Proprietors' income (Q).-Department
merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adj
ment (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
Economic Analysis
(,
286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adj
ment as a percent of gross national prod
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of E
nomic Analysis
(A
Titles and Sources of Series
15.
Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).—Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of
Economic
Analysis
(B5)
39.
Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over (EOM).—American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(B6)
*16.
Corporate profits after taxes (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B5, B8)
40.
*17.
Index of price per unit of labor cost—ratio, index
of wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and
supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of
output (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B1)
*41.
Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment survey (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1, B8, E3, E4)
42.
Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor force survey (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1)
*43.
Unemployment rate, total (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1, B8)
*44.
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
(M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1.B8)
Continued)
88.
Net interest (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)
88A. Net interest as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
90.
Gross saving-private saving plus government surplus or deficit (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
92.
Personal saving (Q).-Department of
Bureau of Economic Analysis
94.
Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
18.
Capital consumption allowances, corporate and
noncorporate (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
*19.
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).~
Standard and Poor's Corporation
(B5, B8, E3, F3)
20.
Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories
of materials and supplies (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)
21.
Average weekly overtime hours of production
workers, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)
45.
Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating,
corporate, all industries (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)
Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).-Department of Labor, Manpower
Administration
(B1)
46.
Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).-The Conference Board
(B1)
Index of industrial materials prices (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, B8, E3, E4)
*47.
Index of industrial production (M).—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, E3, E4, E5, F2)
Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
48.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1,E5)
Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bu/eau of the Census
(B4)
50.
Number of job vacancies in manufacturing (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B1)
)6.
18.
Commerce,
(A9)
Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
Cyclical Indicators
1.
Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
(B1, B8, E3, E4)
2.
Accession rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)
3.
Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)
5.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).-Department of
Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B1, E3)
22.
*23.
24.
25.
6.
Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)
8.
Index of construction contracts, total value
(M).-McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company.
(Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(B3)
9.
).
Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (B3)
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis May 1970 and by source agency
thereafter.
(B3, B8)
I.
Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference
Board
(B3, E3)
.
Index of net business formation (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (B3, B8)
.
Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)
.
Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.
(B6)
26.
Corporate profits after taxes, 1958 dollars (Q)Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)
Buying policy-production materials, percent of companies reporting commitments 60 days or longer
(M).—National Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)
28.
New private housing units started, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
*29.
Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8)
*31.
Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the
Census
(B4, B8)
Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting
slower deliveries (M).-Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(B4)
32.
33.
Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).Institute of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; Department of Housing and Urban
Development, Government National
Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)
34.
Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)
35.
Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)
37.
Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of
purchased materials (M).-National Association of
Purchasing Management; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B4)
*52.
Personal income (M).-Department of
Bureau of Economic Analysis
Commerce,
(B2, B8)
53.
Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing,
and construction (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2)
*54.
Sales of retail stores (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B2, B8, E3, E4)
55.
Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(85, E5)
*56.
Manufacturing and trade sales (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of the Census
(B2, B8)
57.
Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2)
58.
Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, D4, E3, E4)
59.
Sales of retail stores, 1967 dollars (M).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2)
*61.
Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(B3, B8, C1, C2)
*62.
Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing-ratio,
index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and
salaries and supplements to wages and salaries) to
index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
123
Titles and Sources of Series
118.
Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages
(M).-Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(B6)
*200.
Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in
section A.
(Continued)
63.
Index of unit labor cost, total private economy
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5)
65.
Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)
66.
Consumer installment debt (EOM).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally
adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted
figure for previous month to obtain current figure
(B6)
*67.
Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities
(Q).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6, B8)
68.
Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product
(1958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations-ratio of
current-dollar compensation of employees to gross
corporate product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)
69.
*205.
Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in
section A.
245.
Change in business inventories (GNP component)
(Q). See in section A.
810.
Twelve leading indicators-reverse trend adjusted
composite index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16,
17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
811.
Twelve leading indicators-composite index prior to
reverse trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10,
12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Marginal employment adjustments-leading composite index (includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)
Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and
commercial construction put in place)
(M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)
814.
Capital investment commitments-leading composite
index (includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29)
(M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)
*71.
Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value
(EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
815.
Inventory investment and purchasing-leading composite index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37)
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
*72.
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks (EOM).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (B6, B8)
816.
Profitability-leading composite index (includes series
16, 17, and 19) (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
817.
Sensitive financial flows-leading composite index
(includes series 33, 85, 112, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
85.
Change in U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus
currency) [M1] (M).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)
93.
Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)
820.
Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7, E5)
Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)
825.
Five coincident indicators-deflated composite index
(includes series 41, 43, 47, 52D and 56D)
(M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)
(B7)
97.
Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
(EOQ).-The Conference Board
(B3)
102.
Change in U.S. money supply plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's [M2]
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
830.
Six lagging indicators-composite index (includes
series 44, 61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
C Anticipations and Intentions
103.
Change in U.S. money supply, plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's, plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions [M3] (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
61.
410.
110.
Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers
in credit markets (Q).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)
112.
Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)
*113.
Net change in consumer installment debt (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6, B8)
114.
Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
412.
414.
115.
Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-Treasury
Department
(B6)
116.
Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).-First National City Bank of New York and
Treasury Department
(B6)
117.
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).—The
Bond Buyer
(B6)
124
Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substantial changes (increase, decrease, and increase less
decrease) in income of households (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(CD
430.
Number of new cars purchased by households
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD
435.
Index of consumer sentiment (Q).-University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(CD
D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
(B7)
813.
96.
425.
416.
420.
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun anc
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series mav
not be reproduced without written permission fronr
the source.)
(C2'
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Brad
street, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may no
be reproduced without written permission from th(
source.)
(C2;
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q).-Dun and Brad
street, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may no1
be reproduced without written permission from th(
source.)
(C2
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not bi
reproduced without written permission from tht
source.)
(C2
D Other Key Indicators
55.
Index of wholesale prices, industrial commoditie
(M). See in section B.
Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries (Q). See in section B.
58.
Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M!
See in section B.
Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(C1)
211.
Fixed weighted price index, gross private produc
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economi
Analysis
(D4
250.
Balance on goods and services; U.S. balance c
payments (Q). See in section A.
252.
Exports of goods and services, excluding transfei
under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q
See in section A.
253.
Imports of goods and services: U.S. balance c
payments (Q). See in section A.
264.
Federal Government purchases of goods and service
national defense (Q). See in section A.
500.
Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus serii
512) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of th
Census
(D
502.
Exports, excluding military aid shipments, tot
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of tt
Census
(D
Manufacturers'
inventories, total
book value
(EDO).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(C1)
Percent of total book value of inventories held by
manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less
percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(CD
Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective operations over the next 12
months, less percent classifying existing capacity as
excessive (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(CD
Current income of households compared to income a
year ago (percent higher, lower, and unchanged)
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD
Titles and Sources of Series
546.
Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
748.
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-first year average (mean) changes
(Q).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(05)
547.
749.
Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods
except motor vehicles and parts (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D1)
U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(02)
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-average (mean) changes over life of contract
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
548.
Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
750.
Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery
(M).-McGraw-Hill, Department of
Economics;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(01)
Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D4)
549.
Payments for transportation and other services: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02)
751.
Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
512.
General imports, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D1)
560.
Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(D2)
752.
Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D4)
515.
Balance on goods, services and remittances; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02)
561.
U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(02)
770.
Index of output per man-hour, total private economy
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D,5)
Balance on current account; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(02)
564.
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
781.
Index of consumer prices (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4, E5, F1)
Balance on current account and long term capital;
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
565.
U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
782.
Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
Net liquidity balance; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
783.
570.
Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Index of consumer prices, commodities less food
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D4)
Official reserve transactions balance; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
575.
Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
784.
Index of consumer prices, services (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all
foreigners, total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
600.
Federal Government surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)
841.
Total civilian labor force, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)
601.
Federal Government receipts, national income and
product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(03)
842.
Total civilian employment, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(06)
843.
Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(06)
844.
Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
'
(D6)
(Continued)
506.
508.
517.
519.
521.
522.
530.
532.
534.
535.
536.
Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding
military grants) to foreign official agencies, total
outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
602.
U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding
military grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
Federal expenditures, national income and product
accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D3)
616.
Allocations to the U.S. of Special Drawing Rights:
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Defense Department obligations incurred, total,
excluding military assistance (M).-Department of
Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)
621.
Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M).-Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis
Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D3)
625.
Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms
and institutions (M).-Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)
845.
Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)
647.
New orders, defense products industries
(M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D3)
846.
648.
New orders, defense products (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)
Unemployment rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(06)
847.
740.
Index of average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime
(in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonality (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
Unemployment rate, white, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)
848.
Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime
(in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonality (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
Unemployment rate, Negro and other races, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)
858.
Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D5)
859.
Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents)
on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1967 dollars
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(05)
Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
537.
Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military:
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02)
140.
U.S. investment income, military sales, and other
services exports, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
541.
Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures
and other services imports: U.S. balance of payments
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
i42.
)43.
Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
741.
Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
544.
Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02)
745.
Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy (Q).—Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
545.
Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(02)
746.
Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
Washington, D.C. 20402
POSTAGE AND
FEES PAID
U.S. GOVERNMENT
PRINTING OFFICE
375
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
Titles and Sources of Series
47.
Index of industrial production (M). See in section B.
48.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). See
in section B.
200.
GNP in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
205.
Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in
section A.
206.
Potential level of gross national product in 1958
dollars (Q).-Council of Economic Advisers
(E1)
207.
Gap-the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual
GNP
(series 205) (Q).-Council of Economic
Advisers
(E1)
820.
850.
851.
852.
853.
854.
Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 41,43,47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B.
Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and McGraw-Hill Economics
Department
(E2)
Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56),
manufacturing and trade total (EOM).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(E2)
Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income
(series 292 divided by series 224) (Q).-[Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(E2)
127.
Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lnstituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(F2)
128.
Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)
132.
United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).Ministry of Labour (London)
(Fl)
133.
Canada, index of consumer prices (M).-Dominion
Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F1)
135.
West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(F1)
136.
France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(Fl)
137.
Italy, index of consumer prices (M).-Institute Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(F1)
138.
Japan, index of consumer prices (M).-Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo)
(F1)
United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M). See in section B.
142.
United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-The
Financial Times (London) •
(F3)
United States, index of industrial production (M).
See in section B.
143.
Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)
145.
West Germany, index of stock prices
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
146.
France, index of stock prices (M).-lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)
147.
Italy, index of stock prices (M).-Institute Centrale di
Statistica (Rome)
(F3)
148.
Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock
Exchange (Tokyo)
(F3)
781.
United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in
section D.
860.
Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to total number of persons unemployed
(M).-The Conference Board, and Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index.
Diffusion indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the
same number and are obtained from the same sources. See
section B for titles and sources of D1,.D5, D6, D11, D19,
D23, D41, D47, D54, D58, D61, and section C for D440,
D442, D444, D446, D450, D460, D462, D464, D466, and
D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34.
Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National
City Bank of New York; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)
F International Comparisons
19.
47.
121.
Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods (EOM).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods (M).-Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial
production.)
(E2)
France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(F2)
Vacancy rate in rental housing-unoccupied rental
housing units as a percent of total rental housing
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)
(Continued)
E Analytical Measures
126.
857.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial
production (M).-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(F2)
122.
United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M).-Central Statistical Office (London)
(F2)
123.
Canada, index of industrial production (M).Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F2)
125.
West Germany, index of industrial production
(M).-Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal
adjustment by OECD
(F2)
(M).—
(F3)
@FedFRASER