Full text of Business Conditions Digest : November 1971
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NOVEMBER
1971
DATA THROUGH OCTOBER
A UNITED STATES
DEPARTMENT OF
COMMERCE
PUBLICATION
BUSINESS
CONDITIONS
DIGEST
This report was prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division.
Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication
are—
Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and review,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic
data. (Telephone 440-1596)
Editorial supervision is provided by Maureen Padgett of the
Administrative and Publications Services Division.
The cooperation of
which provide data
furnishing data are
at the back of this
various government and private agencies
is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies
indicated in the list of series and sources
report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of
a technical committee established by the Office of Management
and Budget. The committee consists of the following persons:
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Maurice H. Stans, Secretary
James T. Lynn, Under Secretary
Harold C. Passer, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Julius Shiskin, Chairman
Office of Management and Budget
George Hay Brown, Director
Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisers, Executive
Office of the President
Joseph R. Wright Jr., Deputy Director
Walter F. Ryan, Associate Director
Joseph R. Wright, Jr., Bureau of the Census, Department
of Commerce
George Jaszi, Office of Business Economics, Department of
Commerce
Benjamin D. Kaplan, Chief
Statistical Indicators Division
Geoffrey H. Moore, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department
of Labor
Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board
ABOUT THE REPORT
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
personal, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or /aggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
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Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge.
For
information about domestic or foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of
This monthly report brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters. Its predecessor, Bus/ness Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the
analysis of business conditions and was based largely on
the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Some other approaches commonly used by students of economic conditions include econometric models
and anticipations and Intentions data. The econometric
model concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships among consumption, private investment, government,
and various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of businessmen and the intentions of consumers.
Most of the content of Bus/ness Cycle Developments has
been retained in this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of other approaches have been added to
make it more generally useful to those concerned with
an evaluation of current business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is
not to be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau
of the Census or any other government agency of any particular approach to economic analysis. This report is intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report
have been published by their source agencies. A series
finding guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and
data sources, is shown at the back of this report.
Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payabl
to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washingtor
D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce field office.
New Features and Changes for This Issue....
BCD
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
NOVEMBER 1971
Data Through October
Series ESI No. 71-11
-
-
—.
-
-
1
1
1
1
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
2
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
3
3
Section E. Analytical Measures
-
Section F. International Comparisons
3
3
Howto Read Charts.^
4
How to Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
4
5
PART I. CHARTS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al
~A2
Gross National Product
~A3
A4
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
_A8
A9
9
National and Personal Income
10
.
11
12
13
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
14
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
15
16
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Bl
B2
B3
J34
JB5
B6
B7
~B8
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
18
21
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
23
26
28
Money and Credit
30
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
NBER Short List
34
36
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
40
43
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
45
Balance of Payments and Major Components....
46
Federal Government Activities
51
Price Movements
53
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential Gross National Product
Analytical Ratios
55
56
Diffusion Indexes
Rates of Change
58
60
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
F2
F3
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
61
62
63
PART II. TABLES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Gross National Product.....
National and Personal Income
64
64
A3
Personal Consumption Expenditures
65
A4
A5
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
65
66
66
66
66
67
A2
A6
A7
A8
A9
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Bl
B2
B3
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
68
70
71
73
74
75
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
_
77
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
78
79
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components
80
81
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
83
84
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential GNP
85
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
-
86
87
89
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
93
93
94
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
95
QCD and Related Measures of Variability
98
B. Current Adjustment Factors
..—
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See Index-Series Finding Guide)
101
102
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States:
1854 to 1970
108
F. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators
G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
109
110
Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series
113
115
ii
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
Changes in this issue are as follows:
A limited number of
changes a re made from
time to time to Incorporate recent find-
1. The series on man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
(series 4-8) has been revised by the source agency for the period
January 1968 to date. These revisions reflect the recent adoption
of a new benchmark (March 1970) for factory employment data.
Additional information concerning this revision may be obtained
from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Division of Industry and Employment Statistics.
20 The series on change in U.S0 money stock (series 85, 102, and
103) have been revised by the source agency to reflect annual benchmark adjustments and review of seasonal factors. These revisions
cover the period 196^ to date. This issue of BCD contains revised
data for the period January 1970 to date. Revised data for the
earlier period will be shown in a subsequent issue0
Further information concerning revised data on measures of
money supply may be obtained from the Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System, Banking Section.
ings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
rest/ft In revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes In placement of
series in relation to
<O "
other series, changes
in composition of
3. The coincident and lagging composite indexes (series 820 and
830) have been revised from 1948 to date to incorporate recent
revisions in the component series.
4. Series based wholly or in part on the monthly retail trade
survey (series 54* 56, and 851) have been revised to reflect a new
sample design and improved processing techniques. Revised estimates
based on the new sample have been calculated back to August 1970 and
are included in this report. Additional information concerning this
revision may be obtained from the Bureau of the Census, Business
Division.
5. The series on machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (series 69) has been revised to reflect
revisions in the construction components. The revisions for these
components extend back to January I960, but have been incorporated
into series 69 for the period beginning January 1971 only0 Revised
data for the earlier period will be shown in a subsequent issue.
(Continued on page iv.)
The December issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
release on December 30.
iii
60 Revised data for the ratio of output to capacity, manufacturing
(series 850), are shown in this issue for the period 194-8-1968. Revisions for 1969 to date were published in the October issue0
7. The revisions for diffusion indexes D6 (value of manufacturers1
new orders* durable goods industries) and D4/7 (index of industrial
production) have been completed and are shown in this report0
8. Appendix C includes historical data for series 15, 19, 4-8, 48b,
67, 110, 616, 621, 648, 850, 857, 858, D5, D6, D19, and D47.
IV
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Office of Business Economics (OBE), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Personal consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports.
Exports include receipts from domestic
output sold abroad, transportation, travel,
other services, fees and royalties and income on investments in foreign areas.
Imports include purchases of foreign
goods, payments for transportation, travel
and other services, military expenditures
as well as payments of income on foreign
investments in the United States. More
detail on U.S. balance of payments is provided in Section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an
1
accounting period. It is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
SECTION B
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
Economic
Process
I. EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses the same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 73 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.
PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that
of
the
coincident index. This facilitates
IV. INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(10 series)
VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(18 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins
(4 series)
Flows of money
and credit
(7 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)
Unit labor costs
(2 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans
and mortgages
(2 series)
Cyclical
Timing
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(37 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT Comprehensive
employment
INDICATORS
(3 series)
(25 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)
Comprehensive
Backlog of investment
production
commitments
(3 series)
(2 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (3 series)
Investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
comparisons among the leading,coincident,
and lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com
prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks), i Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
Because these data are influenced by
foreign as well as domestic conditions,
the cyclical shading has been omitted
from the balance-of-payments charts.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures
and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and
product accounts, but are not shown in
section A of this report. The defense series
included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of
defense activities, see Defense Indicators,
a monthly Bureau of the Census publication.
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected
group of economic series. Percent changes
are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or
for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F
The price movements series consist of
consumer and wholesale price indexes and
their major components. Additional data
on prices and costs are shown in several
other sections.
SECTION E
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER.
Basic Data
(May) (F«b.)
T
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("6" - June)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as weJI as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted 1%, 2,
or 2J/2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" —
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the "Index—Series Finding Guide" in the back of the book where series are arranged into six
sections and various subsections. Also, in the list of 'Titles and Sources of Series" which follows the Finding Guide, series are
listed in"numerical order within each of the six sections, and the charts and tables in which they appear are indicated.
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1968
1969
1970
2dQ
1970
Percent change
3dQ
4th Q
1970
1970
IStQ
2dQ
3dQ
1971
1971
1971
4th Q
to
IstQ
IStQ
to
2dQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
1971
1971
1971
Series number |
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1. Gross National Product
Ann.rate,bil.dol.
do
1958=100
Ann. rate, dol...
. . do ...
864.2
706.6
122.3
4»307
3»522
929.1
724.7
128.2
4*585
3»576
974.1
720-0
135-3
4»755
3*515
968.5
721-1
134.3
4»735
3»526
983.5
723.3
136.0
4»795
3*526
988.4 1020.8 1043.1 1060.8
729.7 738.4 745.5
715.9
141.3
142.3
139.9
138.1
4»804 4»949 5»045 5ill8
3t480 3t538 3i571 3t597
Ann.rate.bil.dol.
National income, current dollars
do
Personal income current dollars
do
Disposable personal income current dol . . .
do
Disposable personal income, constant dol . .
Per capita disposable personal income,
Ann. rate, dol...
current dollars
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
do
711.1
688.9
591.0
499.0
763.7
750.3
634.2
513.5
795.9
803.6
687.8
531.5
793.4
803.8
685.7
533-0
802.2
809.8
696.2
536.0
802.1
816.7
701.5
532-5
828.3
834.3
721.6
542.7
2t946
3»130
3»358
3»353
3.395
3i4lO
2»487
2»535
2»595
2*606
2t6l3
2t588
Ann.rate,bil.dol.
do
do
do
. do .
do
do
536.2
452.7
579.6
469.3
615.8
475.9
613.8
477.1
620.9
477.9
84.0
53.6
30.4
89.9
58.2
31.7
88.6
60.7
28.0
90-7
60.8
29.9
90.4
60.8
29.6
230.8
221.3
247.6
242.1
264.7
262.5
262.9
260-2
do
Gross private domestic investment total...
. . . do . . .
Fixed investment total nonresidential .
do
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures.
do
Fixed investment producers' dur. equip.. . .
do
Fixed investment, residential structures. . .
do
Change in business inventories, total . . . .
126.0
137.8
88.8
3Q.3
58.5
30.1
98.6
34,5
64.1
31.8
135.3
102.1
36.8
65.4
30.4
200.
205.
210
215.
217
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
. .
3.3
1.9
1.3
3.0
1.7
2.2
1.2
1.0
1.9
0.9
1-7
1-0
0-7
1-4
0-7
200
205
210
215
217
1-2
1-3
1-1
0-3
220
222
224
225
A2. National and Personal Income
220.
222
224
225.
226.
844.5
854.8
740-8
551.8
854.6
866.1
749.2
553-2
3.3
2.2
2.9
1-9
2.0
2.5
2.7
1.7
3»498
3»583
3t6l4
2.6
2.4
0-9
226
2»631
2*669
2i669
1.7
1.4
0-0
227
624.7
474.2
644.6
484.8
97.6
63.7
33.9
660-9
492.3
100-8
672.5
496.5
104.7
3.2
2.2
84.9
61.4
23.5
15.0
66.3
34.5
67.2
37.5
44.3
265.5
265.0
270.9
268.9
272.0
275.0
279.8
280-4
282-0
285-7
0-4
2.3
2.5
1.5
3-3
4.1
1.8
2.9
2.0
1-8
0-9
3-9
1-4
8.7
0-8
1-9
230
231
232
233
234
236
237
134-1
102-1
138.6
104.8
137.3
100-8
143.8
104.3
152.4
107.0
153.6
109.3
36-6
65.6
29.9
37.3
67.5
28.7
37.1
63.7
32.8
37.9
66.3
36.4
38.2
68.8
39.7
39.1
70.1
43.3
4.7
3.5
2.2
4.1
6*0
2.6
0.8
3.8
9.1
2.5
0-8
2-1
2-4
1-9
9-1
240
241
242
243
244
245
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230.
231.
232.
233.
234
236.
237
Total, current dollars..
Total, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars.
Durable goods, BXC. autos, current dollars. .
Automobiles current dollars.
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services current dollars
3.7
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240
241
242.
243
244.
245
7.1
7.4
2.8
2-1
5.1
3.7
3.2
5.7
1.1
11.0
-0.5
-4-6
AS. Foreign Trade
250 Net exports of goods and services2.
252 Exports
.
253. Imports
...
do
. . .do
do
50.6
48.1
.do
2.5
2.0
3.6
4.2
4.0
2.7
4.2
0.5
55.6
53.6
62.9
59.3
63.2
59-0
63.7
59.7
63.2
60.5
66.1
61.9
-0.5
66.4
66.9
68.9
68.4
199.6
216-5
96*8
220.1
223.7
228.2
230-2
234.2
95.9
73.2
96.7
73.0
95.7
71.8
97-4
70.8
1.5
4.6
2.3
-4.7
0.5
8.1
1-0
3-8
2-2
250
252
253
1-7
1-8
A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260.
262
264.
266
Total
Federal . .
National defense
State and local
209.7
219.4
do . .
do
do
98.8
78.0
99.2
78.8
97.2
76.6
75.1
96.1
74.2
100.7
110-8
120-9
119.7
124.0
127.9
131.5
134.5
136.8
2.8
do
169.6
180.9
180.8
183.7
184.9
173.1
188.0
191.5
198.0
8.6
4.9
252.9
4.5
269.0
-0.6
-2-0
-3.4
282-9
290.9
3.8
292.0
2.7
297.4
-0.5
284.7
4.7
284.9
302-2
7.2
0.4
2.1
2.9
3.4
4.0
0.4
7.1
3.0
1.6
514.6
565.5
601-9
598.5
606.5
609.3
627.9
639-5
647.7
64.2
21.2
84.3
26.9
67.0
22.6
78.6
29.9
66.9
23.3
70.8
33.0
67.6
23-2
71.5
66.0
23.4
73.0
33.4
65.9
23.7
69.0
34.2
66.0
23.8
75.5
35.0
66.7
24.2
78.3
35.8
68.8
24.5
77.2
36.4
128.3
141.0
140.3
141.1
142.6
138.3
149.8
152.7
153.3
39.8
37.9
54.1
54-2
57.4
58.5
58.4
60-9
57.7
-0.2
do
do
do
20.9
74.5
-6.8
14.5
81.1
17.9
do
-6.8
2.0
0*8
-0.3
2.3
1.7
260
262
264
266
1.9
3.4
270
0.9
-1.0
-1.6
-1.4
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
270 Final sales durable goods
271. Change in business inventories, durable
goods2 . .
274. Final sales, nondurable goods
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods . ...
do.
do
do
.
-0.6
-7.7
-1.1
1.8
3.6
-3.2
1.6
-1.4
271
274
275
A8. National Income Components
280 Compensation of employees
282 Proprietors' income
284 Rental income of persons
286 Corp profits and inventory va luation adj . .
288 Net interest
do
do
do
do
do
32«6
3.1
0.2
0.4
9.4
2.3
1.8
1.1
1.7
3.7
2.3
8.3
1.9
4.3
1-3
3.1
1.2
-1.4
1-7
280
282
284
286
288
A9. Saving
290 Gross saving, total
292 Personal saving .
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296 Capital consumption allowances
298! Government surplus or deficit, total2
El.
do
... do
11.7
87.6
12-2
7.4
-13-1
86*9
-12.2
3.2
38.3
33-2
12.2
88.2
11.7
89.8
13.8
95.6
15.4
97.3
13.7
99.5
-15.2
-21.7
-17.9
-21.0
-17.5
39.0
54.5
48.8
48.3
49.6
6.5
3.8
11.6
1.8
-3.1
-5.3
290
292
-11.0
2.3
3.5
294
296
298
1.3
?07
0.4
Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP MD (potential less actual)2
-5.7
-0.5
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
Percent change
Aug.
1969
1970
IstQ
1971
2dQ
1971
3dQ
1971
Aug.
1971
Sept.
1971
to
Sept.
Oct.
1971
1971
Sept.
to
Oct.
1971
to
2dQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
1971
1971
IstQ
Series number 1
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Composite Indexes
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj.3. 1967=100
do
do
LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS
815. Inventory investment and purchasing ....
816 Profitability
do
do
do
do
do
117.3
119.6
124.0
115.0
120.3
130.9
120-1
121.3
124.9
124.7
123-9
123-7
126.9
124.4
126.1
126.8
124.0
126.5
127.1
125.1
127.4
128.6
125.4
127.0
0-2
0-9
0.7
1-2
0-2
-0.3
102.9
110.0
104.2
100.7
103.7
93.2
106.5
103.2
94.1
98.4
93.6
109.2
102.8
96.7
101-2
94-0
111-0
102.4
100.0
106.5
92.6
113.0
102.1
99.4
109.3
92.8
113.8
102.5
99.0
110.3
91.7
112.3
101.4
99.2
108.2
NA
113.9
101.2
98.6
NA
-1.2
-1-3
-1-1
0.2
-1.9
NA
1.4
-0.2
-0.6
NA
40.6
39.8
39.8
39.9
39.8
39.8
39.6
39.7
-0-5
3.6
4.7
3.0
4.0
2.8
3.8
2.9
3.8
2.9
3.9
2.9
4.2
2.8
3.8
2.9
NA
194
1.2
296
1.8
284
1.6
290
1.5
308
1-7
327
1.9
324
1.8
263
122
132
93
83
77
89
80
97
83
106
85
138.1
70-6
75.2
137-1
70*4
75.2
137.9
70-7
75.3
137.8
70.7
75.8
137.7
70.5
75.8
3-5
5-0
5-9
6*0
6«0
6-1
6.0
5-8
2.1
3.5
3.7
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.6
4.6
-0.5
1.5
2.6
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.0
-0-1
0-3
0.5
0.8
1-3
1-4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1-5
0-0
3.8
2.1
1-8
0-4
1.9
810
820
830
3.4
5.2
-1.5
1-8
-0-3
-0.6
2-6
813
814
815
816
817
0-3
0-3
-0-3
1
-0.1
-0.4
0.1
NA
o.o
0.1
0-0
0.1
21
2
310
NA
0-9
0-1
4.3
NA
-2-1
0-1
-6«2
-0-2
5
3
97
80
NA
80
-8-5
-5-9
NA
0-0
7-2
3-9
9-0
3-8
50
46
137.9
70.9
76.2
138.3
70-9
76.5
0-1
0-6
0.5
0-3
0-0
0.4
0-6
0-4
0.1
-0»1
0-0
0.7
48
41
42
0-2
-0-1
0-0
43
0.0
-0.5
0.0
45
0-0
0-0
40
0-0
-0-1
-0-1
44
1-7
1.0
-0.9
2 OC
-1.0
0.4
1.6
-0.4
61. Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1, Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. .. Hours
21. Avg. weekly overtime hours, production
..... do
Per 100 employ..
*5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State 4
unemployment insurance (inverted ) • . Thousands .....
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted4) 2. • Per 100 employ. .
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Job Vacancies:
50 Number of job vacancies mfg*
46. Help-wanted advertising
••
Thousands
1967=100
Comprehensive Employment:
Ann. rate, billion
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural
man-hours
establishments.
*41 Employees on nonajjri payrolls. • • « • « • • Millions
do
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities. . .
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted^2 • . . Percent
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment
do
rate (inverted4) 2
40. Unemployment rate, married males
4 2
do
(inverted )
139.Q
70.3
7*. 3
0»1
LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and
do
B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production:
*200. GNP in current dollars
*47. Industrial production
Comprehensive Income:
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr ..
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
Ann.rate.bil.doL.
do
1967=100
929.1
724.7
110.7
974-1 1020-8 1043-1 1060.8
729.7
738.4
745.5
720.0
106-8
105.5
105.8
106. 7
Ann.rate,bil.dol..
do
750.3
194.4
803-6
197.6
do
do .
do
It 232
921.7
351.5
Ii333
1.372
1»271
1»380
971.3 1017.6 1037-4 1059.7
403.6
369.9
393.2
414.0
1967=100
Ann. rate, thous. .
116.2
274.0
108.1
266.0
106.9
265.9
110-3
286-5
346.0
126
87.0
25.4
69.5
376-8
128
94.8
23.0
77.1
766
1.457
118.3
77.48
21-06
834.3
199.8
854-8
203.2
866.1
203.4
105.3
106.1
106.3
0-8
0-2
2-2
1.2
1.2
867.6
203.1
871.5
204.5
872.3
205.1
0-4
0.7
0.1
0.3
2-5
1.7
1-3
0.1
52
52
205
47
1.381
1.381
NA
0-0
NA
415.9
421.9
NA
1.4
NA
2.9
1.9
2.6
0.6
2.1
2.6
56
51
5H
112.2
294.3
112.9
301.7
111.8
280.4
NA
NA
-1-0
-7-1
NA
NA
3.2
7.7
1.7
2.7
12
12
366-0
150
93-6
21-8
72-4
379.0
153
95.1
24.4
76.5
381.1
153
100.2
372.4
154
94.9
372.7
137
93.7
-2-3
0-7
-5-3
0-1
-11.0
-1.3
77.0
81.7
-2.0
6-1
3.6
2-0
1/6
11-9
5-7
e
78.6
-2.9
17.2
-1.3
-5.2
-6.1
£
1C
JU
2i
679
It8l3
141.0
724
1.962
158-2
745
2»145
174.0
658
2.258
175.8
849
1.948
166.5
741
2.050
194.1
29-0
-13-7
-5.3
-12.7
5-2
16.6
6.6
8.2
12.2
2-9
9.3
10-0
2i
2<
79.06
20.52
74-75
19.73
74.36
19.68
74.88
74.36
74.03
-0.7
-0.4
-5.5
-3.8
-0-5
-0-3
9<
9'
B3. Fixed Capital Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Index of net business formation
New Investment Commitments:
356.4
*6. New orders, durable goods industries. . . .Ann.rate,bil.dol..
125
8 Construction contracts total value ... • 1967~ 100 . ...
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment. . .Ann.rate.bil.dol..
90.3
do
29.6
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing
72.9
do
24. New orders, producers' cap. goods Indus .
Ann. rate, mil. sq.
9. Construction contracts, commercial
905
ft. floor space . .
and industrial buildings.
28. New private housing units started, total . .Ann. rate, thous. . 1»486
116.1
1967=100
»29. New bldg. permits, private housing.
c
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries5 Bil.dol., EOF...
do
97. Backlog of capital approp., mfg.5
84.38
23.54
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
Percent change
Aug.
1969
1970
IstQ
2dQ
3d Q
1971
1971
1971
Aug.
1971
Sept.
1971
Oct.
1971
to
Sept.
1971
Sept.
to
Oct.
1971
to
2dQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
1971
1971
IstQ
Series number
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B3. Fixed Capital Investment— Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
*61. Business expend., new plant and equip . .Ann.rate,bil.dol. . 75.54
69. Machinery and equipment sales and
86-57
business construction expenditures ....
do
79.74
79.32
81.61
82.38
87.74
89.97
91.45
95.00
2.8
3.2
5.7
1.1
6.3
6.8
6*2
6.3
2.9
0-9
61
1.6
3.9
69
95.14
96-08
NA
1.0
NA
5.8
9.5
NA
3.7
NA
-10
-2
8
NA
4.2
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in business inventories, all
Ann. rate, billion
dollars
industries2.
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
2
and trade inventories *
do
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Percent.. ..
20. Change in book value, manufacturers'
Ann. rate, billion
inventories of materials, supplies2.
dollars
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer2 ®. . . .
Percent
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
do
slower deliveries2 ©
25. Change in unfilled
orders, durable goods Ann. rate, billion
industries2
dollars
7.4
10.8
2.5
-4.6
0-1
-0.6
245
31
50
46
1.8
0.8
63
55
56
57
55
55
52
51
-3
-1
1
-2
26
65
51
43
52
48
49
48
50
-1
2
9
-4
32
2-1
-23.5
1.6
-6.9
49
-0.8
6.3
57
3.4
-17.2
50
-1.6
-1.5
51
-2.2
3.6
41
-4.6
-6.2
39
NA
-4.1
-2.4
-9.8
-7
-5-0
15.7
37
20
25
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories3. . Bil.dol., EOP...
65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories
do
165.7
172.0
173.7
175.2
176.8
176.0
176.8
NA
0.5
NA
31.31
34. il
34.7i
34.31
34.21
34.00
34.21
NA
0.6
NA
111.3
113.9
107.0
108.3
106.1
106.1
107.5
107.4
1.3
-0.1
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks © . . . 1941-43=10
.
97.8
83.2
96.7
101.5
98.6
97.2
97.3
2.3
-2.1
Profits and Profit Margins:
* 16. Corporate profits after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
Ann.rate.bil.dol. .
44.5
41.2
42.9
46-0
45.8
1,5. Profits(after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.2
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
Percent
Cents
1967=100
0.9
0.9
71
-0.3
65
1.2
-2.0
23
5.0
-2.9
19
7.2
-0.4
16
0.2
0.4
1.4
-0.2
-1«2
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices (u)
1967-100
9.4
4.8
8.4
4.0
8.4
4.0
8-6
4.4
99.4
8.6
NA
99.2
97.0
96.1
97.4
97.2
97.0
106.0
106.2
110.0
110.2
112-5
112.3
113-6
113.4
114.9
114.7
115.1
114.9
0.768
0.810
113.6
0.824
0.829
0.832
107.2
116.8
116.5
118.0
Ann. rate, percent.
3.1
5.3
10-5
do
2-3
7.8
17.8
12-2
7.5
18.7
24.6
14.3
35.2
96.6
0.0
o.o
NA
22
15
17
96.6
-0.4
115.0
114.7
115.0
114.5
-0.1
-0.2
118.4
118.7
118.5
3.4
3.2
-3.2
-0.5
-6.4
2.7
4.2
2-9
2-4
6-3
-0.5
3-9
-5-6
-8.0
102
6.4
5.7
42.1
12.0
20.6
8.7
NA
NA
-0.7
3.0
NA
NA
-28.9
-4.4
10.6
-6-9
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities®. 1967-100
do
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®.
0.0
-0.2
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.1
55
58
0.6
0.4
1.3
68
62
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
Dollars
1967=100
0-3
-0.2
-0.3
B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
85 Change in money supply(Ml) 2..
102. Change in money supply plus time
103. Change in money sup. plus time dep. at
banks and nonbank inst (M3)
do
Ann. rate, bil. dol. .
do
Mis! Change in consumer installment debt . . .
dp
do
2
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.4) ©
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans
Percent, EOP. • • •
(inverted*)2 5
2.7
20.0
8.1
19.8
2.8
0.2
9.1
7.4
44.5
10.4
46.1
11.2
93.9
2.7
1.3
114.0
6.7
0-3
128.0
9.9
142.3
15.6
84.8
1.14
1.89
2.18
2.28
1.67
1.87
1.39
1.76
1.90
1.80
1.81
1.76
NA
NA
9.9
-8.3
1.74
NA
-4.0
2.1
5-0
25-7
NA
-25.2
NA
1.4
-7-1
85
-1.0
12.3
11.2
103
33
113
112
110
-4.6
26.8
14
4.0
9-3
3.7
9*6
-0.01
NA
39
3
404
93
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Bank Reserves:
93 Free reserves (inverted*)2 (§)
Million dollars...
-871
-616
-113
-116
-520
-606
-295
-165
-311
-130
Money Market Interest Rates:
114 Treasury bill rate 2 ®
Percent
6.69
8.06
6.12
6.44
9.05
6.58
3.86
7.60
5.82
4.21
8.05
5.88
5.05
8.09
5.75
5.08
8.14
5.78
4.49
7.72
5.46
5.72
6.35
5.25
5.74
5.75
5.82
4.67
7.90
5.56
5.37
-0.41
-0-24
-0.22
-0.45
-0.18
-0.18
-0-10
-0.31
2
115. Treasury bond yields (g)
117. Municioai bond yields2 <S>.
do
do
do
5.06
0.35
0.45
0.06
-0.13
0.49
0.01
0.84
0.04
114
116
115
117
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
Basic data x
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
Aug.
1969
1970
IstQ
2dQ
3dQ
1971
1971
1971
Sept.
Aug.
1971
1971
to
Sept.
Oct.
1971
1971
Sept.
to
IstQ
to
2dQ
2dQ
to
3dQ
1971
1971
-0-8
1.7
0.1
2.6
2.9
-0.09
-0.58
NA
Oct.
1971
o>
£)
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS--Con.
B6. Money and Credit— Con.
LAGG/NG INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt5
Bil. dol., EOF. . .
*72. Com. and industrial loans outstanding 5. . . . . . do
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans 2®. . .
118. Mortgage yields, residential 2 <§)
do
101.4
84*0
104.0
103.0
104.0
86.4
84.7
86.4
85.7
NA
6.00
7.67
6-50
7.91
7.92
7.84
7.75
1.7
-3.2
-1.2
-3.1
45.0
43.9
46.7
44.1
54.1
17.8
16.7
17.3
17.4
18.9
96.2
99.0
99.7
83.4
83.6
83-9
8.21
8.29
8.48
9.03
6.58
NA
1.0
2.0
-0.08
NA
0.50
0.24
66
72
67
118
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trade
500. Merchandise trade balance2
Ann. rate, bil. dol..
do
506. Export orders, durable goods except motor
vehicles
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
512. General imports
do
1957-59=100....
Ann. rate, bil. dol. .
1.3
37.3
14.7
254
36.0
2.8
42.7
17.2
253
39.9
224
43.2
248
47.1
254
47.9
263
47.2
3.2
252
50.9
-9.9
32.5
NA
NA
42.4
6.3
22.7
8.6
-4.2
7.8
-13-1
-4.9
2-0
500
-39.9
-2.4
6.4
502
NA
NA
-16.7
-6.2
10.7
3.6
2-4
1.7
506
508
512
9.0
02. U.S. Balance of Payments
515. Balance on goods, services, and remittances
517 Balance on current account
519. Balance on current account and long term
capital
521. Net liquidity balance
522 Official reserve transactions balance
Hn
Hn
2.0
0.7
do
-0.9
do
do
do
-2.9
3-6
2*2
0.4
4*6
3.2
1.5
-0-1
-1-5
-3.5
0.9
NA
NA
-4.7
-4.7
-5.0
1-0
NA
NA
250
515
517
NA
-37.2
-48.4
-7.4
NA
-14*3
-25.5
519
521
522
2.7
-3.0
-3-8
-9.8
-10-0
-22.1
-12-6
-22-9
-22-9
do
7.3
-13.6
-17.5
-22*6
-21.2
At\
196.9
191.5
195.6
198.3
202.6
Hn
189*5
205-1
213*2
220-9
do
do
do
do
do
do
78.4
81.1
75.4
79.5
20.1
42-9
7 -8
76.1
17.1
41-4
223-9
7°. 8
21.0
43.1
23»1
35.4
73.°
83.1
23.5
41.5
23.4
33.4
24«4
109.8
106.5
116.3
110.4
78.0
-6-1
-5.2
-12-9
...
-0.8
...
-5-1
1.4
1.4
2-2
601
4
-i*
1.4
602
2
64
616
621
647
648
625
03. Federal Government Activities
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts 2
601. Federal receipts, national income and
...
...
...
...
602. Federal expenditures, national income
264
616.
621.
647.
648.
625.
National defense purchases
Defense Dept. obligations, total
Defense Dept. obligations procurement . . .
New orders, defense products industries. . .
New orders, defense products
Military contract awards in U.S
1
NA
NA
-?'
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
38.5
23-5
38-6
36.2
17.6
31.8
122-2
114.9
122.4
114.5
122.6
114.4
19-0
28-9
43.6
26-1
35-8
43.6
25-8
119.5
112.5
120-8
113.8
122.1
114.7
74.5
75-1
73.2
3 4 .1
6
*.6
NA
NA
NA
NA
-17-0
-31-8
-17" 6
NA
6.4
33-5
NA
-8.4
-27.2
-0»2
-22-1
-15.2
NA
NA
5-3
37.4
23.9
600
04. Price Movements
781 Consumer prices all items @. .
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities ®
1967-100
do
0-2
-0.3
0-2
-0.1
1*1
1.2
1*1
0.8
781
75°
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2. . Percent
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing
Ratio
and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs.'
do......
durable goods industries
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
1967=100
to consumer goods
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
86.5
NOTE:
available.
-1.9
850
1.56
1.60
1.56
1.53
1.53
1.53
1.54
NA
0-7
NA
-1.9
0»0
851
3.23
3-03
2.94
2.71
2.73
2.74
2.71
NA
-1-1
NA
-7.8
0.7
852
83.5
83.9
84.1
0-2
-2.6
1.7
853
-6.1
854
97.0
91.6
84.3
82-1
83.5
0,060
0.079
0.081
0.082
0.077
1.284
102.8
0.691
103.5
0.460
105.8
0-478
107-0
0-493
2.91
2.89
2.93
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.94
2.93
90.83
4.9
91.53
4-9
91.46
91.75
91-30
91.86
860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to
do ... .
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm. • 1967=100
856. Real average hourly earnings, production
1967 dollars.....
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. .
do
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing 2 ® • •
0*6
90.92
5.0
90-03
4.9
0-5
1.2
0.494
0.469
0.482
-5-1
0.0
-0-5
2.8
-0.3
0.6
3.1
0-5
860
858
0.3
o.o
856
0.8
0.0
-0.1
859
857
3.9
1.1
0.4
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by <§>, which appear to contain no seasonal movement.
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
NA = not
a = anticipated.
EOP = end of period.
For complete series titles (including composition of composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" in the back of BCD.
x
ln many cases, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits or are in different units than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual
figures are those published by the source agencies or they are rounded from published figures; otherwise they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series)
are averages or totals of the data as shown in part II.
2
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
Index for the latest month excludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113, for which data are not yet available.
^Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
8
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart Al
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
.=,:;-
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
-r
^-;
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
/
200. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, WL dol.)
T
^^
m
900
800
^^
s
700
205. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.
215. Per capita GNP in current dollars, Q (am. rate, thous. dol.)
1950 51
52
53
54
55
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.
BCII NOVEMBER 1971
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
1000
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Section A
^
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
1NATIONAL AND PERSONAL
INCOME
(May) (Feb.
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
Per capita disposable personal income, 1958 dollars,
Q (am rate, thous. doJ.)
1.5-J
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.
10
NOVEMBER 1971
KCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND P R O D . * - , :
Chart A3
| PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
p T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
232. Durable goods, total, current dollars, Q
231, Durable goods, total excluding automobiles,
ttjmml dollars, Q
234. Automobiles, currtnt dollars, Q
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.
I NOVEMBER 1971
11
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate, bilfion dollars current)
private domestic nvesttnent
241 Nonresidential fixed investment, total, Q
"-'-j% S
j^j/\/
242. Nonresidential structures, Q
m
*••
243. Producers' durable equipment, Q
244. Residential structures, Q
245. Change in business inventories, Q
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.
12
NOVEMBER 1971
KCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
FOREIGN TRADE
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
+10-1
250. Net exports of goods and services, Q
+5-
0-*
7570-
/'.-'.V
";\
',:-
^-.:
;.
:<
-/
(n|
65-
/*>*
r
m. Exports of goods and services, Q
6055-
/S^ /
50-
'•!•:<•
" .
'"•'
^
V
' '
457065605550454035-
253. Imports of goods and services, Q
30-
25-'
20-
15-
10 J
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 66.
KCII NOVEMBER
1971
13
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME A^D ^GGuCT
Chart A6 ! GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current
260. Federal, State, and local governments, Q
286, State and local governments, Q
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 66.
14
NOVEMBER 1971
ItCIt
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Section A
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
270. Final sales, durable goods, Q
*& Change in business inventories, durable goods, Q
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 66.
licit
NOVEMBER
1971
15
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A8
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current) |
'^^*
fjfl
/uu600500-
^^
^~~^
280. Compensation of employees, Q
400-
^*****^*~*^
300-
t
_, . ^^*~~~~*+~*s
——
- —
gg
60-
282. Proprietors' income, Q
-.. - —.
••'•"*
50-
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment u
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.
16
80-1
70-
NOVEMBER 1971
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SAVING
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
290. Gross saving (private and government), Q
25294, Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment, Q
2015-
1090807060-
296. Capital consumption allowances, Q
504030-
20+20-•
+100-
-10-201950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
ItCII NOVEMBER
1971
1.7
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart Bl
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Average werKweek^iction workers, ||factiirin& (fiours)
eekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing (hours]
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)
150-,
*5. Average weekly initial daims, State unemployment insurance (thousands-inverted scale)
200250300350400-
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees-inverted scale)
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page <
18
NOVEMBER 1971
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
300250200-
50. Number of job vacancies, mfg. (thousands)
150-1;
100-
(
50300250200-
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1057-59=100]
150-
100J
1501
140-
130-
48. Man-hours in nonagricurtural establishments (ann. rate, bil. man-hours)
120-
110J
751
70-
;
65- .
on nonagriciirtural payrolls (millions]
60-
80-.
7570-
41 Persons engaged in nonagricurtiiral activities (millions)
65- ;
60-
55-
50-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 68 and 69.
KCII NOVEMBER 1971
19
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
P
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
T
P
T
Comprehensive Unemployment
*43. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale)
4567-
40. Unemployment rate, married mates (percent-inverted scale)
23456-J
Lagging Indicators
Long-Duration Unemployment
*44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
20
NOVEMBER 1971
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
*47. Industrial production (index: 1967-100)
220-j
210200190-
Comprehensive Income
*52. Personal income (aim. rate, Ml. dol.)
180170160150140-
53. Wages and salaries to mining, manufacturing,
construction [ann. rate, tall, dol.)
130120110100-
908070-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
KCII NOVEMBER 1971
21
P ,; \ j v
/
Section B
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B2 i PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(July; 'Apr
P
1
(Aug.)
T
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
120 -i
X-
110100-
90-
*56. Manufacturing and trade sates (H. dol.)
8070-
^^
60-
1000-.
950900850800750-
57. Final sates (series 200 minus series 245), Q(ann. rate, bi!. dol.]
700650600550-
-J 500 J
34
32
30
28
26
24
*54. Sites of retail stores (HI. dol.)
222018161412-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
22
NOVEMBER
1971
ltd*
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Formation of Business Enterprises
plant and equipment p. dol.)
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
BCII
NOVEMBER 1971
23
Section B
! Chart B3
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
New Investment Commitments - Con.
It. New capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q ML dol.)
24. Km orders, machinery and equipment industries (bil. dol.)
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial (mil. sq. ft
or floor area; MCD moving avg.-6-terml
2$. New private housing units started, total (ann. rate, millions: MCO moving avg.-5-terml
*29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1967-100)
60-1
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.
24
NOVEMBER 1971
B€ll
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
120100-
80-
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (bil. dol.)
60-
40J
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bil. dot.)1
15-
10-
5J
Lagging Indicators
Investment Expenditures
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
BCII NOVEMBER
1971
25
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
inventory Investment and Purchasing
245. Change in business inventories, Q (am. rate, bil. do!.)
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
arm. rate, bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-5-term]
+20-,
+10-
0-10J
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories
75-1
x/^^VV-
50-
25-1
20. Change in book value, manufacturers1 inventories of materials and supples
[aim. rate, bil. dd; MCD moving avg,-6-term)
+10-,
+5-
0-
-5-1
100 T
26. &iyliig poficy, productioii materiais, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer
75-
50-
25 J
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
26
NOVEMBER 1971
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart B4
} INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
ventory Investment and Purchasing - Con.
100-1
32. Veffltar performance, percent erf companies reporting slower deliveries
75-
50-
25 J
; 25- Change in infilled orders, durable goods industries
(bil. del.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
0-
Lagging Indicators
180160140- <
*71. look value, manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. dol.)
120-i
100-'
80 J
3530-
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.)
25-
20-'
<
15-
10-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
BCII
NOVEMBER 1971
27
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
T
P
T
Sensitive Commodity Prices
/ \
/
IDU -
140-
^
/
J
»23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1967=100)
x^
/N
_s^\s^
S~/~"
XX"
'"~'n~V'-v_
^~^^-~^
120-
/s^^^- ED
^s
100-
ftn-
IHU -
' KBHMHg
.:
120-
*»9. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10) ^*J*\
/^
S^*f
100-
yv^
-/\\
V-
X
v
/^
ffl
80-
\J
r^\f
Rn-
Profits and Profit Margins
./•
*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (am. rate, bil. dol.j
E
^\y
70
1
60-
504030-
22. Ratio, profits (after taxes] to income originating,
corporate, all industries, a (percent)
16-
^\
1412-
s:
15. Profits fatter taxes) per dollar of sales, manufacturing, Q (cents)
10-
8753-
110-
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index: 1967=100)
105100-
i^^^jr
1950
51
52
53*^54
55
56
57^58
59
60
61
62
63
64
95-
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
28
NOVEMBER 1971
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.)
P
(Nov.)
T
H Comprehensive Wholesale Prices ^
^
•
•
•
•
•
I
I
H
I
I
H
I
I
H
^
H
H
I
H
I
I
I
l
H
^
H
H
^
H
11R-
X^ sn
f
55. Wholesale orices. industrial commodities (index: 1967=100)
110105-
X""*'^
100-
120115110105-
58. Wholesale prices. manufactured goods h'ndex: 1967=1001
100959085-
Lagging Indicators
0.85Unit Labor Costs
0.80-
0.75-
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of real corporate gross product, Q (dollars)
0.70-
0.65120115110-
*62. labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967=100)
10510095-
908580-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
BCII
NOVEMBER 1971
29
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Flows of Money and Credit
+25-
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks (M2)
ann. rate, percent, MCD moving avg.-6-termJ
+20-
+15-'
+10-
+5-
0+25+20-
+15-'
103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at banks
and nonbank institutions (M3) (am. rate, percent;
MCD moving avg.-6-tcrm)
+5-
0-
85. Change in money supply [Ml) (ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-tenn)
,\ <N
33. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
*113. Chanfe m consumer installment debt (arm. rate, M, dol)
+5--
0- '
-5-
112. Change in business toans (ann. rate, bB. dol;
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
30
NOVEMBER
1971
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Flows of Money and Credit - Con.
110. Total private borrowing, Q (arm. rate, fail, dol.)
14. Liabilities of business failures (mil. dol.-inverted scale;
MCD moving avg.-6-term)
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
t-inverted scale)
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
P NOVEMBER 1971
31
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
-1.5 T
-1.0-93. Free reserves (bil. dol.-inverted scale)
.£>
S
-0.5- '
o-i
8-1
76114. Treasury bill rate {percent)
5-
9-1
76-
116. Corporate bond yields (percent)
7-!
6*>
S
5-
115. Treasury bond yields (percent)
7-1
65117. Municipal bond yields (percent)
432J
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
32
NOVEMBER 1971
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
P
T
120
100-
80-
-i
66. Consuni6f instjrifenent debt (bil. dol.)
SO-
40-
100-i
ED
s^^
80-
_^
60-
+12. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
jf
weekly reporting large commercial banks (bfl dti.) /^
40-
9
8-
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages
7-
6-
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 0 (percent)
5lO-i
9-
8-
7-
•i
118. Mortgage fHfc, residential {percent)
6-
5-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
KCII NOVEMBER 1971
33
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Selected Indicators by Timing
COMPOSITE INDEXES
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
«
8
50-
40-
30J
7
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 77. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.
' Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
34
NOVEMBER 1971
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
F
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
811. Twelve leaders, prior to trend adjiiiient
(series 1, 5, 6,10,12,16,17,19,
813. Marginal errptoyment adjustments series 1, 2, 3, 5)
(series 6,10,12, 20]
814. Capital investment
815. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 23, 2$, 31, 37)
816. Profitability (series 16,17,19)
117. Sensitive financial flows (series 33, 85,112,113)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.
itcn
NOVEMBER
1971
35
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
42-,
*1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing {hours)
*R Average weekly initial claims. State unemployment
insurance (thousands-inverted scale)
*12. Net business formation (index: 1967=100]
*6. New orders, durable goods industries (bil. dot.)
*10. Contracts ami orders, plant
anrf eraiinmfint fWI doll
*29. New building permits, private housing units (hdex: 1967=100)
1948 49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 68, 71, and 72.
36
NOVEMBER 1971
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
P
T
+20-1
10-
0-
*23. Industrial wterials prices pfex: 1967=100)
<
100-
80140120100- -
V
Stock prices, SWeommon stocii(totex: 1941-43=10)
c
'
80-
60-
70-i
8050-
*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
<
40- •
<
30-
20 J
110*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index: 1967=100)
100- '
95~
+15-
*>13. Change in conamier instaHnent debt lann. rate, bil doll
4-10-
0-5-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 73, 74, and 75.
Cll NOVEMBER 1971
37
Section B
CYCLICAL
Chart
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
B8 !
Selected Indicators by Timing
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
*52. Personal mcome (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
*43. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 59 and 70.
38
NOVEMBER 1971
ltd)
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
and over (percent-inverted scale
on short-teem business loans, Q (percent
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69, 72, 73, 74, and 76.
NOVEMBER 1971
39
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
—
Chart Cl i AGGREGATE SERIES
(July)
P
(May)
P
(Apr.)
T
(Nov.)
P
(Feb.)
T
(Nov.)
T
90
80
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, ail industries, Q
70-
(a) Actual expenditures
(arm. rate, bil. dol.)
(b) Second anticipations as
percent of actual (percent)
T
I L?t tt It b
6
J
6
66
i
°
!
9? ?h *
f
o
9
«
6
A
rt
n9
9
_
1~ 1 1
<*
A ]~<1
i<l
9 o 1
no?
9
?
?
o
n
Q
111 ?L <^ h?
100H
0
j
! iU "1
(c) First anticipations as
percent of actual (percent)
o
105 J
LJJL
|
1957
1Ul1
58
9?
T
??t
"i
59
60
?
O 9
.. I I . ll
-
61
62
.T.,,11»T 11 T.lltll,
T
"3
Uj- -||J||
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
100-
1973
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
40
NOVEMBER
1971
BCII
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
T
200-,
180160-
410. Manufacturers'sales, total value, Q (bil. dol.)
140- '
(
120-
100-
120-j
110100-
90-
412. Manufacturers'inventories, total
book value, 0 (bil. do!.)
80- '
(
70-
80-
5040-i
30-
414. Condition of manufacturers'inventofies: f
percent considered high less percent
/
20-
<
10-
OJ
50 -t
/VA
f
.••*"•'
\
\..*"\
percent i^iisldered inadeQtidte less percent
./ **
considered excessive, Q (percent)
.. ,-' *
*v
S
»•'*
\
\»y
A.
40-
\t
V
s
'*"*:
\
-
30-
«i
Q
i
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
20-
1973
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
I NOVEMBER 1971
41
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart Cl
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
Actuaf
Anticipated *
420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago, Q
60-,
(a) Percent of households reporting no change to family income (percent)
50-
40-
(b) Percent of households reporting higher family income (percent)
30-
20-
(c| Percent of households reporting tower family income (percent)
10-
020-
425. Mean probability of substantial changes in income of households, Q
\J\
(a) Mean probability of ncrease to family income (percent)
15-
* ,N
.\
(b) Increase less decrease (percent)
(c) Mean probability of decrease to family income (percent)
. /
. v ••*'
t
°**^*S *
,
\
*•. jf
10-
^
s-J
10-
9-
430. Number of new cars purchased by households, Q
(aim. rate, mi cars;
8-
1-
6-
actual data (percent)
iiini
i
!
J_
?
0
i
ti
no
110
105
100
95
90
85
439. moex or consumer seframerrt, u IIST u ISDD-IUUJ
100-
../-•A. ...
^''^Xv.-*~'\/''*
\
^X^V-^-v...^.--**,.
90-
\/
^
\
^
ffl
80-
*%>V/
7H-J
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72 1973
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
42
NOVEMBER 1971
BCII
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND - N r e r r T M ' *
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal quarter)
061. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, ail industries (1-Q span)
a) Actual expenditures
(b) Second anticipations
lay Actual expenditures
(c) First anticipations
D440. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)
bO -I -*
!&
50-IS
1957
58
59
SO
61
62
63
64
85
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
1973
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
KCII NOVEMBER
1971
43
AND
Section C
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(Nov.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.)
T
Oiffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal quarter]
0450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
75- •
50 J
100-
0460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
75-
50100 n
0462. Selling prices, manufacturing (441 span)1
75- •
\
50 -I
100 i
0464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-0 span)1
75-
50 J
100 i
0466. Selling prices, retail trade (4-0 span)1
75-
50-
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
1973
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
44
NOVEMBER 1971
ItCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
500. Merchandise fade balance (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
i
502. Exports, except miltary aid [bil. dol.; MOD moving avg.-6-term)
506. Export orders, durables except mo1
p. dot.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
{index: 1957-59=100; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
genera imports ton. 001.; mv movmg avg.-4-term]
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
KCII NOVEMBER
1971
45
Section D
Chart D2
1 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
<Juiv)
P
'Aug.,
T
G15. Balance on goods, services, and
remittances—-V
519. Balance on current account and long term capital
522. Official reserve transactions balance
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
46
NOVEMBER 1971
ItCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Billion dollars
Major Components, Except Military Grants
of Goods and Services - Con.
48-,
44-
40-
36-
32-
530, Liquid liabilities to afl foreigners, outstanding at end of period
28-
24-
20-
16J
12-
532. Liquid and certain nonfiquid iabiities to
foreign official agencies, outstandiig at end of period
4
24
534. U.S. official reserve assets-reserve position at end of period
20-
16-
12-1
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 81. End of year figures are used prior to 1960.
BCI»
NOVEMBER 1971
47
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars
Goods and Services Movements,
Except Transfers Under Military Grants
68-,
64-
60-
56-
Excess of receipts
Excess of payments
52-
48-
44.
48-
Goods and services44-
40-
36-
250. Balance on goods and services
32- j
28-
24-
20-
16-
12H
IIYCdllllClll IIIUUIIIC, Illlllldiy ddlCd
and expenditures, and other services
8-
4J
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 81. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
48
NOVEMBER 1971
KCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
1
Annual rate, billion dollars
Investment Income, Military Sales
and Expenditures, and Other Services
Excess of receipts (inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
12 T
Investment income8-
\
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
4-
0J
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.
8-1
4-
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
(H
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.
Military sates and expenditures547. U.S. military expenditures abroad
4-
0-
12-
Transportation and other services-
8-
4-
0-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 82. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
KCII NOVEMBER 1971
49
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars
Capital Movements Plus Government
Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Excess of receipts (inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
Direct investments-
+4-
0-J
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
+4-
565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities
0-J
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
+4-,
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net
A A MV^
^f
--V
.4.
v^^
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net
0-
-4-1
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 82. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
50
NOVEMBER 1971
BCII
Section D
Chart D3
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product accounts, 0 (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
601. Federal receipts, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
B02;Fefferarexpenflitiires,Tiali6rTa7IfMsome and producT accounts, ft (am. late, bil. dol.l
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
6!
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 83.
BCII NOVEMBER
1971
51
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
264. Natkmal defense purchases, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
616. Defense Department obligations, total (bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
621. Defense Department obligations, procurement
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
647. New orders, defense products industries
(biL dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
648. New orders,
defense-—
products
(bil. dol)
625. Military contract awards in U.S.
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 83.
52
NOVEMBER 1971
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
PRICE MOVEMENTS
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Index: 1967=100
/>
120-
' */'
Consumer prices-
X
•
i
181. All items
X.:
-
ID
115110-
*
^
_li
s
oo
105-
^f
100-
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
ItCII NOVEMBER 1971
53
Section D
OTHER KtV INDICA
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con
195C 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
19",
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
54
NOVEMBER 1971
IICII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart El
ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
T
/ G3
780760740720700-
Gross National Product in 1958 dollars, Q
[am. rate, ML dot.)
__
680-
660 -j
640 -j
620-1
600-j
580-j
560-
540-
*
c
520-
500-
480-
460-
440-
|
420-
400-
380-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
S3
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pags 85.
'Trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersectingactual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and 4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to 3rd quarter 1971.
!!€!» NOVEMBER 1971
55
Section E
[chart E2
ANALYTICAL
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
100-,
9590-
850. Ratio, output to <
f^^E
85-
V
80-
^"^ Eg
757065-
Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
5.0-j
4.5-
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods industries
4.03.5-
*A
HA^
T
3.0-
2.5-
2.0J
120110-
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods
100-
s_
9080-
70-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
56
NOVEMBER 1971
BCII
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
ANALYTICAL RATIOS—Con.
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
0.10-
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
0.08
0.06
0.04
1.6
Ratio, help-wanted advertising to number
of persons unemployed [index: 1967=100)
1.2-
0.8-
0.4115"
110105100-
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm, 0 (Index: 1967=100)
9590-
85-J
3.10
3.00
85S. Real average hourly earnings, production workers,
manufacturing (198? dollars)
2.90
2.802.702.602.502.40-
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings, nonagricurtural
production or i
oxjnars)
959085-
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing, Q (percent)
76-
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
KCII NOVEMBER 1971
57
Section E
f
Chart
ANALY T SCAL VCAS'JFF.S
E3 1 DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
D1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing-21 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)
100 -i
500-1
06. New orders, durable goods industries-36 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)
100-.
50 0 J
Oil. Newly approved capital appropriations-17 industries (3-Q span***,
834. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profits-abort 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-Q span)
r
50-
V*
25- 1
D19. Stock prices, 506 common stocks-77 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span--)
100n
50-
D23. Industrial materials prices-13 industrial materials (9-mo. span — , 1-mo. span
100n
50-
0J
05. Initial claims, State unemployment insurance-47 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)
100 T
500-1
i960 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88.
58
NOVEMBER 1971
Section E
Chart
E3
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
D41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls-30 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-:-)
047. Industrial production-24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span--]
D58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods-22 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
D54. Sales of retail stores-23 types of stores (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-
1950
51
52
5S
54
K
5"
5fc*
59
60
61. 62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 88.
itcn
NOVEMBER 1971
59
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Section E
i~Chart~E5~] RATES OF CHANGE
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
200. (c) GNP in current dollars (1-Q span)
205. (c) GNP in constant dollars (1-Q span)
r\yi
\A
/v
/
\\f/
A
r^v^,
\ i \
1
^*S
v ^^
^v
f\s<****.\
/v
,xv
" V
fill
^X/A/
+8+4-
0-4-
1-mo. span (b)
3-mo. span (c)
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators (series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56)
^20-,
-10-
0-
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
\
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (seas, adj.)
781. Index of consumer prices, an items (seas, adj.)
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
1973
To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult "Index—Series Finding Guide,* pp. 113 and 114
60
NOVEMBER 1971
ItCII
Section
F
Chart Fl
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
CONSUMER PRICES
130 T
1950 51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 93.
NOVEMBER 1971
61
Section F
Chart F2
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial production—
Si
53
Sfi
55
56
57
58
5^
60
61
8::
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
71)
7j
197:!
Current data for these series are shown on pages 93 and 94
62
NOVEMBER 1971
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Section F
Chart F3
I STOCK PRICES
so-
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 94.
BCII
NOVEMBER 1971
63
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
205. Constant (1958) dollars
200. Current dollars
a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
a. Total
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
210. Implicit price deflator
b. Difference c. Percent
change
at annual
(Ann. rate, rate
bil. dol.)
a. Total
b. Difference
(Index:
1958-100)
(Index:
1958-100)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
834-0
857.4
875.2
890.2
+18.1
+23.4
+17.8
+15.0
+9.2
+11.7
+3.6
+7.1
692.6
705.3
712.3
716.5
+9.0
+12.7
+7.0
+4.2
+5.4
+7.5
+4.0
+2.4
120.4
121.6
122.9
124.3
+1.0
+1.2
+1.3
+1.4
+3.6
+3.9
+4.3
+4.6
906.4
921.8
940.2
948.0
+16.2
+15.4
+18.4
+7.8
+7.5
-MS.9
+8.3
+3.3
721.4
724-2
727.8
725.2
+4.9
+2.8
+3.6
-2.6
+2.8
+1.5
+2.0
-1.4
125.6
127.3
129.2
130.7
+1.3
+1.7
+1.9
+1.5
+4.5
+5.3
+6.1
+4.8
956.0
968.5
983.5
988.4
+3.0
+12.5
+15.0
+4.9
+3.4
+5.3
+6.3
+2.0
719.8
721.1
723.3
715.9
-5.4
+1.3
+2.2
-7.4
-3.0
+0.7
+1.3
-4.1
132.8
134-3
136.0
138.1
+2.1
+1.5
+1.7
+2.1
+6.6
+4.6
+5.0
+6.3
1,020.8
1,043.1
rl,060.8
+32.4
+22,3
r+17.7
+13.8
+9.0
r+7.0
729.7
738.4
r745.5
+13.8
+8.7
r+7.1
+8.0
+4.8
r+3.9
139.9
141.3
r!42.3
+1.8
+1.4
r+1.0
+5.3
+4.0
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT-Con.
Year
and
quarter
| J NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
215. Per capita 217. Per capita 220. National
GNP, constant
income in curGNPt current
dollars
(1958) dollars
rent dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
r+3.0
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
222. Personal
income in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
226. Per capita, 227. Per capita,
current dollars
constant(1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate, dol.)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter •
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
4,172
4,419
3,465
3,520
3,545
3,557
686.6
704.9
720.3
732.7
664.0
681.2
697.8
712.6
575.0
588.3
595.2
605.5
492.3
498.8
500.8
504.3
2,876
2,936
2,962
3,006
2,463
2,489
2,493
2,503
4,490
4,556
4,634
4,658
3,574
3,579
3,587
3,563
745.9
758.9
771.7
778.2
726.8
743.1
759.3
772.2
613.2
625.9
643.2
654.5
506.1
509.8
517.5
520.5
3,037
3,093
3,170
3,216
2,507
2,520
2,550
2,558
4,686
4,735
4,795
4,804
3,528
3,526
3,526
3,480
785.8
793.4
802.2
802.1
784.3
803.8
809.8
816.7
667.6
685.7
696.2
701.5
524.4
533.0
536.0
532.5
3,272
3,353
3,395
3,410
2,570
2,606
2,613
2,588
4,949
5,045
r5,U8
3,538
3,571
r3,597
828.3
844-5
P854.6
834.3
854.8
r866.1
721.6
740.8
749.2
542.7
3,498
3,583
3^614
2,631
4,279
4,356
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
551.8
r553.2
*
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The'V indicates revised; "p", -preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9, 10, and 60.
64
NOVEMBER 1971
BCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Year
and
quarter
230. Total in
current dollars
231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars
232. Durable
goods, total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. ratet
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
234. Automobiles
233. Durable
goods, total except in current dollars
autos, in current
dollars
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
237. Services in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1968
529.0
544.0
552.5
448.4
457.7
460.2
80.4
82.4
86.3
87.0
51.3
53.2
54-6
55.6
29.1
29.2
31.7
31.4
225.0
227.8
233.6
236.9
213.9
218.8
224.1
564.3
575.8
89.5
90.6
89.4
90.3
57.7
59.3
57.7
58.1
31.8
31.3
31.7
32.2
241.5
594.2
465.7
469.0
469.9
472.6
233.4
238.9
245.2
250.8
604.0
474-4
88.6
90.7
90.4
84-9
59.7
60.8
60.8
61.4
28.9
29.9
29.6
23.5
259.4
262.9
265.5
270.9
97.6
100.8
104.7
63.7
66.3
33.9
34.5
272.0
279.8
r282.0
519.3
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
228.6
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
584.1
246.4
249.4
253.1
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
613.8
477.1
620.9
624.7
477.9
474.2
644.6
660.9
r672.5
484.8
492.3
256.1
260.2
265.0
268.9
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
r37.5
r67.2
275.0
280.4
285.7
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
240. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
241. Nonresidential
fixed investment
242. Nonresidential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
243. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
244. Residential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
245. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
120.0
127.0
126.2
130.7
88.3
87.0
88.8
91.2
30.5
29.6
30.0
31.2
57.9
57.3
58.8
60.1
28.8
30.5
29.7
31.4
+2.9
+9.6
+7.7
+8.1
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
134.3
137.0
141.8
138.0
95.0
96.6
100.7
102.2
33.1
33.0
36.0
36.0
61.8
63.6
64.7
66.2
32.7
33.6
30.7
30.1
+6.6
+6.8
+10.4
+5.7
131.2
134-1
138.6
137.3
100.8
102.1
104.8
100.8
36.1
36.6
37.3
37.1
64.7
65.6
67.5
63.7
30.0
29.9
28.7
32.8
+0.4
+2.1
+5.1
+3.7
U3.8
152.4
104.3
107.0
37.9
38.2
r39.1
66.3
68.8
r70.1
36.4
39-7
r43.3
+3.2
+5.7
r+1.1
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
r!53.6
rl09.3
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages U and 12.
KCII
NOVEMBER 1971
65
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
H
Q FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
252. Exports
of goods and
services
253. Imports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate
bil.dol.)
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
260. Total
262. Federal
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
264. National
defense
(Ann. rate,
bil. dolj
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1968
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
+1.9
+3.4
+3.4
+1.3
47.8
50.7
53.1
50.8
45.9
47.3
49.7
49.5
192.9
198.0
201.6
205.7
96.1
98.5
99.8
100.6
76.5
78.3
79.1
79.4
96.8
99.5
101.8
105.1
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1970
+1.4
+1.2
+2.8
+2.7
48.0
56.9
58.3
59.2
46.6
55.7
55.5
56.6
206.5
207.8
211.5
213.0
99.2
97.7
100.3
99.5
78.3
77.5
79.4
78.4
107.3
110.1
111.2
113.5
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
+3.5
+4.2
+4.0
+2.7
61.5
63.2
63.7
63.2
58.0
59.0
59.7
60.5
217.3
216.5
220.1
223.7
100.2
96.8
96.1
95.9
78.9
75.1
74.2
73.2
117.1
119.7
124.0
127.9
+4.2
-0.5
r+0.5
66.1
6,6.4
r68.9
61.9
66.9
r68.4
228.2
230.2
r234-2
96.7
95.7
r97.4
73.0
71.8
131.5
134.5
136.8
H
|Q FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
Durable goods
270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1968
First quarter. .....
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter. ....
1969
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
280. Compensation 282. Proprietors'
of employees
income
Nondurable goods
271. Change in
274. Final sales
business inventories
r70.8
284. Rental income
of persons
275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
164.5
167.4
172.4
174.0
+2.6
-6.7
+4.5
+6.0
245.8
250.1
256.5
259.1
+0.3
+2.9
+3.1
+2.1
495.2
508.0
521.6
533.6
63.1
63.8
64.6
65.3
21.2
21.1
21.1
21.3
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1970
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1971
179.1
179.6
181.3
183.4
+3.8
+4.7
+6.5
+3.0
262.2
268.0
271.0
274-9
+2.8
+2.1
+4-0
+2.8
545.9
559.1
573.6
583.6
66.7
67.1
67.1
67.2
22.0
22.6
22.7
22.9
181.5
183.7
184-9
173.1
-1.8
-2.0
+4.7
-3.4
279.9
282.9
284.9
290.9
+2.2
+4.0
+0.4
+7.1
593.2
598.5
606.5
609.3
68.0
67.6
66.0
65.9
23.0
23.2
23.4
23.7
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter.
188.0
191.5
r!98.0
+3.8
+2.7
292.0
297.4
r302.2
-0.6
+3.0
r+1.6
627.9
639.5
r647.7
66.0
66.7
68.8
23.8
24.2
24.5
r-0.5
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
tt
"e , estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 14, 15, and 16*
66
NOVEMBER 1971
ItCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
E NATIONAL
Year
and
quarter
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
R| SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
288. Net interest
290. Gross saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. ratet
bil. dol.)
292. Personal
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
294. Undistributed 296. Capital consumption
corporate profits
plus inventory valu- allowances
ation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
298. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1968
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
81.1
85.4
85.9
84.7
26.1
26.6
27.1
27.8
122.4
129.4
129.3
132.1
41.2
44.6
35.9
37.3
19.1
22.1
22.4
20.1
72.3
73.8
75.2
76.7
First quarter. . . . .
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1970
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
82.7
80.7
78.0
73.3
28.6
29.4
30.2
31.1
136.2
139.7
145.1
142.9
32.8
33.4
42.3
43.1
16.9
15.3
15.1
10.7
78.4
80.2
82.1
83.9
69.8
71.5
73.0
69.0
31.8
32.6
33.4
34.2
139.0
141.1
142.6
138.3
46.2
54.2
57.4
58.5
10.8
12.2
12.2
11.7
85.4
86.9
88.2
89.8
-12.2
-15.2
-21.7
75.5
78.3
p77.2
35.0
35.8
36.4
U9.8
152.7
P153.3
58.4
60.9
13.8
15.4
p!3.7
95.6
97.3
99.5
-17.9
-21.0
p-17.5
r57.7
-10.2
-11.1
-4.1
-2.0
+8.2
+10.7
+5.6
+5.3
-3.4
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; ap", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and a NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16 and 17.
KCII
NOVEMBER 1971
67
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
Qj EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
LEADING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Job Vacancies
....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
*1. Average
workweek of
production workers,
manufacturing
21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production
workers, manufacturing
*5. Average
3. Layoff rate,
weekly initial
manufacturing
claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs1
(Per 100
(Thous.)
employees)
(Per 100
employees)
(Hours)
(Hours)
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
1969
January
February
March
40.6
40.3
40.8
3.7
3.5
3.7
4.9
4.7
4.9
179
186
185
1.1
1.1
1.1
April
May
June
40.8
40.7
40.7
3.7
3.7
3.6
4-9
4.7
4.9
181
182
197
1.0
July
August
September . . .... .
40.6
40.6
40.7
3.6
3.6
3.6
4.7
4.5
4.8
195
196
200
1.1
October
November
December
40.5
40.5
40.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
4.6
4-4
4-5
January
February
March
40.2
40.2
40.1
3.3
3.2
3.2
4-3
4-4
April
May
June
39-9
3.0
39.8
39.9
July
August
September
50. Number of
job vacancies,
mfg. ®
46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspaper
(Thous.)
(1967=100)
120
...
123
124
293
290
240
126
125
122
1.2
1.2
256
312
288
122
120
126
202
211
210
1.3
1.2
1.4
242
209
185
122
119
117
4.2
232
250
263
1.5
1.6
1.7
186
170
165
109
109
103
3.0
3.0
4.0
4.1
4.0
326
313
303
2.0
1.8
1.9
158
151
123
99
99
92
40.1
39.8
39.3
3.0
2.9
2.8
4.1
4.1
3.8
265
288
338
1.6
1.8
1.9
126
137
118
91
89
r85
October
November
December
1971
39.4
39.6
39.5
2.8
2.7
2.7
3.6
3.7
3.8
341
338
297
2.1
2.0
1.8
93
76
77
78
80
80
January. . .
February
March
39.8
39.8
39.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.8
3.7
3.9
282
278
291
1.7
1.5
1.5
81
80
83
75
77
78
April
May
June
39.8
40.0
2.9
•3.0
2.9
274
296
301
1.6
1.5
40.0
4.0
3.8
3.7
93
95
89
78
79
83
(H> 40.0
H) 3.0
2.9
2.8
3.7
[H)274
[fi> 4-2
p3.8
327
324
fu) 1.5
^ 1.9
pi. 8
D 106
310
(NA)
(NA)
1.1
l.i
1970
July
August
September
October
November
December
39 8
39 6
,-xOQ
7
r>2
9
P<-»7
(NA)
1.5
85
90
p97
IH> 85
80
W
p80
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by (R); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
E>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 18, 19, and 36.
•'"Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published "by source agency.
68
NOVEMBER 1971
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
M EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.
Minor Economic
Process
Comprehensive Employment
48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
Year
and
month
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
*43. Unemployment rate, total
(Thous.)
(Percent)
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1
(Percent)
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over 2
(Percent)
(Percent)
Revised3
1969
January
February
March
137.25
137.26
138.20
69,287
69,529
69,766
73,271
73,682
73,870
3.4
3.3
3.4
2.1
2.1
2.0
1.4
1.4
1.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
April
May
June
138.54
139.12
139.30
69,941
70,171
70,368
73,895
73,675
74,110
3.5
3.4
3.4
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
July
August
September
139.24
139.69
139.77
70,406
74,365
74,582
74,696
3.5
3.5
3.8
2.1
2.1
2.2
1.6
1.5
1.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
October
November
December
139.95
139.95
140.12
70, 827
70, 797
75,000
75,088
75,298
3.7
3.5
3.6
2.2
2.3
2.4
1.6
1.5
1.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
January
February
March
139.21
139.47
139.62
70, 873
75,504
75,300
75,436
3.9
4.2
4-4
2.5
2.6
2.7
1.9
2.0
2.2
0.5
0.6
0.7
April
May
June
139.05
138.46
138.25
71,063
75,317
75,031
74,763
4.7
4-9
4.8
3.1
3.5
3.7
2.3
2.5
2.5
0.7
0.7
0.8
July
August
September
138.47
137.76
137.05
70,605
70, 445
70, 480
75,066
75,073
75,043
5.0
5.1
5.4
3.5
3.7
4.3
2.7
2.8
2.9
0.8
0.9
0.9
October
November
December
136.52
136.45
137.04
70, 082
69, 985
70, 3^3
75,398
75,197
75,055
5.5
5.9
6.2
4.4
4.4
4.0
3.0
3.2
3.4
0.9
1.1
1.3
January
February
March
U7.36
136,65
137.38
70,454
70,393
70,480
75,451
75,208
75,079
6.0
5.8
6.0
3.7
H>3-7
3.8
3.3
3.2
3.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
April
May
June
137.56
138^07
137.99
70,599
70,769
70,657
75,140
75,503
75,149
6.1
6.2
E>5.6
3.9
4.3
4.3
3.1
3.3
3.1
1.3
1.4
1.4
July
August
September
137.91
rl37.67
r!37.90
70,531
r 70, 529
5c8
6.1
6.0
4.0
4.1
Dr70,907
75,574
75,782
76,169
r4.6
3.1
3.2
3-3
1.6
1.5
1.5
October
November
December
0}pl38,32
p70,901
H> 76,476
5.8
p4.6
... .
70, 512
70,616
70,912
1970
70,988
71, 147
70, 796
70, 634
1971
D3.0
1.5
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0).
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 19, 20, 38, and 39.
^ata exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
2
No current high.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
IICII NOVEMBER 1971
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q| PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, A ND TRADE
TIMING CLASS ....
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Comprehensive Production
Comprehensive Income
*200. Gross na- *205. Gross na- *47. Index of
industrial protional product
tional product
duction
in current dolin 1958 dollars
lars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1967 = 100)
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
*56. Manufacturing and trade
sales
899.8
28,955
29,257
28,881
1969
57. Final sales
(series 200
minus series
*54. Sales of
retail stores
245)
(Mil. dol.)
C1)
720.8
726.1
733.4
187.3
187.6
190.9
99,508
100,640
101,222
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
n
January
February
March .
906*. 4
721*.4
108.4
109.7
110.3
April
May
June
921.8
724.2
110.2
110.2
110.8
738.1
742.9
748.1
192.0
192.9
194-9
101,898
102,446
102,927
915 .'6
29,409
29,386
29,371
July
August
September
940'. 6
727 ".8
111.5
111.4
111.9
754.1
759.5
764.3
195.8
196.8
197.8
102,572
103,790
104,324
929*8
29,090
29,346
29,259
October
November
December
948.0
725*2
111.7
110.3
109.9
768.0
772.1
776.5
198.6
198.3
200.2
105,087
104,144
103,530
942*3'
29,620
29,471
29,419
January . ...
February
March
956! 6
719*8
107.4
108,0
107.6
780.1
783.5
789.4
198.5
198.2
200.2
104,140
105,181
104,763
955. *6
29,570
29,980
29,801
April
May
June
968 *.5
721.1
107.5
107.5
107.6
808.0
802.0
801.4
198.7
197.1
197.4
104,338
106,062
106,614
966.*5*
30,536
30,502
30,518
July
August
September
98*3.5
723*. 3
107.5
107.5
106.5
805.3
809.0
814.9
198.3
198.5
198.0
106,754
rl08,052
r!07,738
978*4
30,729
r31,688
r31,951
October
November
December
98*8*.4
715.9
103.7
102.6
104.6
813.6
815.7
820.9
193.4
193-4
198.9
rl05.,6lO
rl04,485
r!06,943
984*7
r31,621
r31,282
r31,76l
1970
...
1971
January
February
March.
1,020.8
729.7
105.3
105.7
105.5
830.0
833.2
839,7
199.5
199.1
200.8
r!09,346
rill, 166
rll2,740
1,017*6
r32,290
r32,-850
r33,l64
1,043*1
738*4
106.2
107.0
E> 107.2
844.4
850.0
870.1
201.9
203.6
204.0
rll3,155
rl!4,303
(H)rll5,531
1,037*4
r33,578
r33,502
r33,827
106.1
r!05.3
859.2
867.6
r871.5
202.7
203.1
204.5
r!14,727
rl!5,064
pl!5,084
(H>rl,059*.7
P106.3
[H)p872.3
@>p205.1
.. .
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
H>rl,060*.8
!> r745*.5
r!06.1
...
r33,688
r34,655
E)P35,155
(M)
(M)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by 0); for series that move counter to movements In general business activity (series 3,5,14 t .39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
|H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 21, 22, and 38.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill,
70
NOVEMBER 1971
ItCIt
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
LEADING INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Formation of Business
Enterprises
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
. . .
'
8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value *
*12. Index of net 13. Number of new *6. Value of
business formation business incorpora- manufacturers'
new orders,
tions
durable goods
industries
(1967 = 100)
.
New nvestment
(Number)
(Bil. dol.)
.. .
Commitments
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
(Bil. dol.)
(1967-100)
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations1
(Bil. dol.)
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, producers' capital
goods industries
(Bil. dol.)
1969
January
February
March
117.2
117.2
116.6
21,364
22,105
22,083
28.76
29.38
29*48
132
132
117
April
May
June
117.0
116.6
116.8
23,262
23,118
23,439
30.14
29.74
28.60
118
July
August
September
116.9
116.2
114.8
23,366
22,871
22,594
30«52
29,. 61
31.03
116
139
112
7 38
30.10
29,80
29,22
126
115
141
7.34
7.11
7.84
7.44
5.80
5.98
6.00
116.1
13*>
120
6 07
ft 3ft
7 3/
7 26
7 7ft
7 73
7 27
7 07
6*80
7 7^
£ m
A n/
^ A?
6 i/
G QQ
7 £o
6 01
5 7^
6 AQ
7.77
October
November
December
114.9
24,263
23,125
22,404
1970
January
February
March
114-5
114-2
110.7
22,397
23,152
21,383
29.23
28.64
28.45
131
137
132
8.38
7.77
7.06
6.65
6.15
6.02
5.54
April
May .
June .
109.7
107.8
107.0
21,939
22,267
22,192
28.10
29.33
29.61
130
110
120
7.67
6.90
7.18
6.42
5.53
5.66
5.80
July
August .
September
106.1
105.2
105.5
22,106
22,055
22,372
30.07
29.75
28.36
116
135
118
7.35
7.09
6.86
6.46
5.90
5.68
5.61
October
November
December
1971
105.9
105.6
104.5
21,625
22,382
22,085
26.78
27.56
30.14
115
130
132
6.58
7.18
7.01
5.90
5.84
5.87
5-92
January
February
March
105.8
105.6
109.2
22,338
20,923
23,220
31-67
31.07
31.47
117
126
7,80
8.12
7.77
5.76
6.44
6.62
6.22
April
May
June
109.2
109.8
111.8
22,770
24,168
30.23
30.60
30.67
G>l6l
7.88
7.77
7.74
r5 44
5.68
6.19
6,24
July
August
September
112.0
?5 07"3
October
November
December
1U-3
[H)112.9
pill. 8
(NA)
24 691
rp\or
-i/o
[n/<c;>,14<
—.TO
QAO
p<?,j5Oj5
(ltih\
(NA)
f|J\ ^.OT
<3(L
[n/ r^l.yo
q-i
n/
r31 . 03
— Q-i
r\£.
pjl . Uo
14.2
141
147
i *n
-I CO
15-3
-1 c I
r!54
1 017
-U /
6.15
7.52
fO\ rt or
ID/ 0.-22
_,r;
Q-i
_/7
dn
p/.ol
Hi\TiA -| n
|H^pD.J-U
6 55
T»A
) ?
fON-nA ftl
[H^po.o±
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14r 39 f 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA" f not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 23, 24, and 36.
^-This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company,, F. W. Dodge Division (series 8), or The Conference Board (series 11).
NOVEMBER 1971
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
m FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
....
Minor Economic
Process
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
New Investment Commitments-Con.
Backlog of Investment Commitments
Investment Expenditures
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial
buildings1
Year
and
month
(Mil. sq.ft. floor
space)
28. New private
housing units
started, total
(Ann. rate, thous.)
*29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized by
local building
permits
(1967-100)
96. Manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
(Bil.dol.)
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing1 *
*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment, total
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
n
1969
94.43
69.98
63.50
1,705
1,639
1,588
129.2
127.3
124.1
82.71
82.89
83.18
65.82
85.60
80.37
1,505
1,533
1,507
123.9
116.7
118.1
84.18
84.99
84.19
July
August
September
73.70
71.96
68.90
1,429
1,376
1,481
113.1
116.0
109-. 2
85.28
84.68
85.22
23.33
October
November
December
79.96
64.31
86.89
1,390
1,280
1,402
106.2
106.1
103.2
84.80
84.69
84.38
January
February
March
88.86
80.95
67.11
1,059
1,306
1,392
r93.5
rlOO.l
r96.8
84.17
83.25
82.46
April
May
June
64.00
58.19
54.47
1,224
1,242
1,393
r!04.7
rllV.l
rl!5.0
July
August
September
70.45
61.04
60.16
1,603
1,425
1,509
October
November
December
51.71
54.00
54.69
1,583
1,693
2,054
January
February
March
54.37
50.04
65.44
1,725
1,754
1,959
April
May
June
54.82
63.40
62.83
January
February
March
April . .
May ...
June
69. Machinery .and
equipment sales
and business construction expenditures
.
21.50
85.53
85.27
85.84
72.52
...
84.48
73.94
85.10
77.84
86.84
87.46
...
23.54
77.84
89.23
86.38
...
23.25
78.22
...
88.47
89.52
88.79
81.51
80.91
80,41
22.56
80.22
...
86.00
89.44
88.47
rll7.2
rl23.0
rl23.5
80.30
79.57
78.02
...
21.88
81.88
...
89.50
88.84
87.48
rl36.5
1-133.5
1-158.5
76.65
76.53
77.48
...
21.06
78.63
84.81
143.3
137.0
142.6
78.98
E>79.20
79.06
...
r20.52
79.32
rS9,93
r89»01
r90.98
1,912
1,975
2,000
143.6
168.9
162.1
77.98
76.73
74.75
60.67
54.82
1)70. 72
2,229
E)r2,258
rl,948
179.8
175.8
rl66.5
74.58
74.88
r74.36
61.75
p2,050
[u>pl94.1
p74.03
86.82
22.82
90.71
85.16
1970
86.02
85.58
1971
July
August
September
October
November
December
. .
...
19.73
r89*Q5
r91.24
r94,06
..(H) 81/61
...
a82.38
p!9.68
r93,77
r95.14
0) p96.08
(N/0
a82.42
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by |R); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
|H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA" f not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 24, 25, 36, and 39.
•"•This is a copyrighted series used "by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division (series 9), or The Conference Board (series 97).
2
No current high. 3See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
72
NOVEMBER 1971
ltd*
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
ffl
TIMING CLASS ....
LEADING INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
Inventories
Minor Economic
Process
245. Change in *31. Change in
)usiness
book value of
nventories
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bil.dol.)
Year
and
month
1969
January . .
February
March
April
May
June
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
37. Purchased 20. Change in
materials, com- book value of
panies report- mfrs.' invening higher
tories of mtls.
inventories
and supplies
(Ann. rate,
(Percent
bil. dol.)
reporting)
26. Production
materials, companies reporting
commitments 60
days or longer®
(Percent
reporting)
25. Change in
32. Vendor
performance, unfilled orders,
companies re- durable goods
porting slower industries
deliveries®
(Percent
(Bil. dol.)
reporting)
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
(Bil.dol.)
65. Manufacturers1 inventories of
finished goods,
book value
(Bil.dol.)
+6.6
+6.4
+14.3
+12.7
43
47
49
+1.7
+0.8
+3.4
57
58
63
62
61
61
-0.10
+0.18
+0.29
155.40
156.59
157.65
28.89
29.15
29.41
+6.8
+9.9
+9.9
+11.8
49
51
49
+2.2
+2.4
-0.2
65
64
66
68
69
70
+1.00
+0.81
-0.80
158.48
159.30
160.28
29.64
30.00
30.16
July
August
September
+10.4
+10.2
+11.0
+12.4
50
51
50
+1.1
+0.1
+2.1
59
63
65
66
68
66
+1.09
-0.60
+0.54
161.13
162.05
163.09
30.33
30.53
30.75
October
November
December
+5.7
+14.8
+3.9
+12.1
54
57
48
+3.2
+1.4
+2.9
63
65
65
65
62
64
-0.43
-0.11
-0.31
164.32
164.65
165.66
30.83
31.16
31.31
January
February
March
+0.4
-0.5
+11.9
+5.7
50
50
51
-1.2
+2.2
+0.9
61
62
56
56
58
50
-0.21
-0.92
-0.79
165.62
166.61
167.08
31.62
32.00
32.12
Apri 1
May
June
+2.1
+10.2
-3.4
+9.1
45
40
46
-0.9
-2.1
+0.1
60
57
55
52
72
69
-0.95
-0.60
-0.50
167.94
167.65
168.41
32.67
32.70
32.87
+5.1
[H)+13.5
+8.0
+9.0
46
U
47
+0.1
+1.0
+0.8
52
50
52
50
45
45
-0.10
-0.74
-1.54
169.54
170.20
170.96
33.10
33.33
33.53
+3.7
+2.5
+7.2
+2,8
46
47
44
+2.9
+3.5
+2.4
54
54
52
38
36
36
-1.37
-0.12
+0.96
171.17
171.77
172 ,/QO
33.94
34.24
34.11
+3.2
+6,1
+4.0
+10.4
46
49
51
+0.6
-0,7
38
44
46
(H)+1.50
+0.22
-0.14
172,^1
172.84
173.71
34.38
34-49
D 34.71
• ••
[H>+5.7
+5.9
+8.9
+3.8
57
55
58
D+4.7
+2.4
+3.2
57
55
58
52
fH)53
^50
-1.08
-1.25
-1.98
174.19
174.93
175.25
34.45
34.46
34.31
+3 7
r+5.8
P+9 5
f£T> 5Q
51
41
+2.0
-2 2
-4 6
57
r+1.1
55
48
49
^2
/ A
-0.16
+0.30
r-0 52
175.56
r!76.04
fH\p!76.84
33.95
34.00
34.21
•2Q
(•KtK\
t~-\
50
1970
. .
July
August
September
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
. . .
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
(MA)
-2*2
V.JMJ
52
D 59
56
2l
•n-0
?/
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26, 27, 37, and 39.
ito
NOVEMBER 1971
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Qj PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
LEADING INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Sensitive Commodity Prices Stock D r j ces
Minor Economic
Process
*23. Index of
ndustrial
materials
prices®
Year
and
month
Profits and Profit Margins
22. Ratio of
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
(Ann. rate, indus.
(Percent)
bil.dol.)
*19. Index of *16. Corpostock prices, rate profits
500 common after taxes
stocks®
15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all mfg
corp.
(1967-100)
(1941-43=10
103.0
105.9
106.5
102.04
101.46
99.30
46.9
April
May
June
108.9
110.0
111.2
101.26
104.62
99.14
45.9
9.8
July
August
September . .
112.0
114.5
116.9
94.71
94.18
94-51
43.0
8.9
4.8
October
November
December
115.1
115.1
116.7
95.52
96.21
91.11
42.3
8.7
118.9
119.5
118.7
90.31
87.16
88.65
41.5
118.2
117.5
114. s
85.95
76.06
75.59
July . .
August
September
112.4
111.2
110.5
October
November
December
1971
January .
February
March
1969
January
February
March..
. .
(Cents)
*17. Ratio,
price to unit
labor cost
index, mfg.
(1967 = 100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Unit Labor Costs
55. Index of
wholesale
prices, indus.
commod. ©
68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per unil
of gross prod.
(1958 dol.),
nonfin. corp.
(Dollars)
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, mfd.
goods ®
(1967-100) i (1967-100)
*62. Index of
labor cost
per unit of
output, mfg.
(1967 = 100)
104.3
104.9
105.4
104.3
104.9
105.2
o 750
105.6
104.5
105.4
105.5
105.5
105.6
105.4
105.8
106.3
0.761
106.3
106.7
106.9
99.3
99.2
105.7
106.1
106.5
106.5
106.5
106.8
0.773
106.4
107.3
107.7
4.5
99.0
98.4
97.2
107.1
107.4
107.8
107.4
107.8
108.1
0.786
108.5
109.5
111.2
8.5
4.1
96.1
97.3
96.6
108.3
108.7
108.9
108.8
109.1
109.3
0.798
113.2
112.1
113.2
a. 3
8.5
4-3
97.2
97.9
98.0
109.3
109.7
109.8
109.6
109.7
110.0
0.801
75.72
77.92
82.58
42.9
8.7
4.0
98.5
97.4
96.9
110.0
110.2
110.4
110.6
110 6
110.8
0.811
112.3
113.6
114.4
109.5
108.9
106.4
84.37
84.28
90.05
96.9
39.2
7.9
3.6
111.2
111.2
111.2
0.829
93.1
111.3
111.3
111.7
114.8
115.8
116.9
105.9
107.2
107.8
93-49
97.11
99.60
42.9
8.4
/ n
95.8
96.7
95.8
112.2
112.5
112.8
111.8
112.4
112.7
0.8&
116,7
116 ,.2
117.6
D110..2
108.6
106.1
E>103. 04
101.64
99.72
0} 46.0
8.6
[H>4.4
96.8
97-7
113.0
113.5
113.8
0.829
r97,6
113.3
113.7
113.9
116.7
116.2
116.6
104.7
106.1
107.5
99.00
97.24
99.40
E> 97.9
"r97.0
r96.6
114-5
H) 115.1
115.0
114.5
[H>114.9
114.7
[R)p0.832
rll6.9
rll8.4
[H)rll8.7
98.8
10.2
5.0
100.4
99,8
4.9
99.2
99.2
99.4
100.1
1970
January
February
March
April ...
May
June
....
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
. .
107.4
107.0
1
97.29
93.72
2
P45.8
[H)p8.6
(M)
96. C
p96.6
115.0
112.7
112.0
112.2
114.5
P118.5
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by [H>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators frhart Bft The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available. Graphs ot these series are shown on pages /8, 29, 37, and 39.
Average for November 2, 9, and 16.
^Average for November 3, 10, and 17.
74
NOVEMBER 1971
ito
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
0 MONEY AND CREDIT
....
LEADING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process.
Flows of Money and Credit
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
103. Change in
money sup. plus
time dep. at
banks and
nonbank inst.
(M3)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(2)
(2)
n
35. Change in
U.S. money
supply (Ml)
Year
and
month
102. Change in
money supply
plus time deposits at comm.
banks (M2)
33. Net change
in mortgage
debt held by
fin. inst. and
life insuranqe
companies x
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Credit Difficulties
*113. Net
change in
consumer
installment
debt
112. Change
in business
loans
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
110. Total
private
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures®
(Mil. dol.)
1969
January
February
March
+4.26
+5.71
+7.27
+4.82
+7.26
+4.39
+5.87
+7.09
+4.98
+20.12
+23.84
+20.16
+7.69
+9.58
+7.75
+14.88
+8.88
+8.35
97,888
75.03
89.99
84.12
April
May
June
+5.4.0
+3.58
+4.76
+3.75
+3.12
+5.91
+4.13
+3.29
+5.13
+22.02
+19.45
+22.15
+9.12
+10.15
+9.54
+16.76
+14.09
+13.01
103,028
118.76
92.60
91.92
July
August
September
+4.15
-2.95
+1.18
-2.17
-4.65
+17.56
+21.07
+20.95
+7.46
+7.20
+8.38
+6.17
+9.95
+12.06
89,148
0.00
-0.82
-2.86
+1.23
112.73
62.83
73.70
October
November
December
+2.37
+1.77
+0.59
+0.93
+1.87
+1.86
+0,82
+1.84
+2.04
+18.77
+19.63
+14.36
+8.03
+7.44
+4.98
+14.21
+6.65
+8.86
85,656
116.44
127.14
96.85
r+10.60
r-4.67
r+11.72
r+5.27
r-3.40
r+9.29
r+3.06
r-2.44
r+7.54
+17.32
+14.53
+13.84
+4.56
+5.02
+2.38
-1.92
+12.29
+2.80
78,312
137.28
139.39
120.02
April
May
June
r+9.29
r+4.03
r+2.30
r+10.76
r+7.01
r+5.75
r+9.32
r+6.83
r+6.00
+13.68
+17.93
+21.47
+3.55
+4.98
+5.29
+3.70
+5.65
+2.15
87,700
131.90
147.89
170.50
July
August
September
r+5.16
r+7.42
iH-6.81
r+10.85
r+11.65
r+10.65
r+10.54
r+10.84
r+9.96
+22.46
+20.60
r+23.94
+5.32
+2.78
+4.31
+2.15
+7.45
+0.12
82,444
251.92
169.59
232.94
October
November
December
1971
r+1.69
r+2.82
r+6.74
r+8.21
r+6.70
r+11.30
r+9.11
r+7.88
r+11.46
+23.36
+20.22
+27.90
-0.98
-3.62
+0.25
-18.97
-8.00
-4-99
90,600
1.44.77
119.84
121.72
14-2.79
14-13.38
r+15.90
[H)r+20.92
r+19.27
+21.34
+22.75
+29.64
+1.04
+1.22
+5.94
-3.77
+5.86
+1.80
rl!4,036
14-11.02
r+14.06
[H)r+20.70
r+18.68
168.80
150.90
224.65
r+8.19
[H)r+14.10
r+9.12
r+12.08
r+13.86
r+10.75
r+15.72
r+15.34
r+11.97
+29.88
+34.38
+41.42
+7.96
+5.92
+6.30
-7.28
+7.12
+1.00
r!27,976
153 . 80
249.49
165 . 84
July
August
September
14-10.11
r+3.17
r-3.16
r+7.46
r+2.91
r+2.38
r+10.29
r+6.40
r+5.67
+45.29
[H)r+46.07
p+42.07
+9.13
+9.92
-6.54
r+15.61
[R)r+20.58
[H>pl42,280
October
November
December
P-0.53
Pf6.32
+4. 73
P+8.73
(M)
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, total
installment
loans
(Percent)
1.55
1.61
1.65
1.70
1.72
1.76
1970
January
February
March
January
February
March.
April
May
June
. ..
.. .
3
0.00
3
D+11.99
(NA)
p-8.32
3
+0.48
1.80
1.76
1.82
1.89
1.92
1.90
1.80
[H>1.68
1.81
147.03
155.56
[H) 115. 85
1.76
144.70
(NA)
. .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
K>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30, 31, and 37.
•"•Beginning with October 1970, data include conventional mortgages held by the Government National Mortgage Association.
"New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 3Average for weeks ended November 3 and 10.
IICII NOVEMBER 1971
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
KM MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
93. Free
reserves®
(Mil. dol.)
1969
January
February ... .
March
Apri 1
May
June
Outstanding Deb,
Money Market lnterest Rates
Resets
Year
and
month
LAGGING INDICATORS
114. Treasury 116. Corporate 115. Treasury 117. Municipal 66. Consumer *72. Commercia
bond yields® bond yields® bond yields® installment
bill rate®
and industrial
debt
loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
^*XS£f*
*67. Bank
118. Mortgage
rates on short- yields, resiterm business dential ©
loans, 35
cities (g)1 2
(Percent)
(Percent)
-480
-596
-701
6.18
6.16
6.08
7.29
7.33
7.76
5.74
5.86
6.05
4.85
4.98
5.26
88,729
89,527
90,173
73,450
74,190
74,886
7.32
-844
6.15
6.08
6.49
7.54
7.62
8.04
5.84
5.85
6.05
5.19
5.33
5.76
90,933
91,779
92,574
76,283
77,457
78,541
7.86
8.06
8.06
8.35
-1,102
-1,064.
(NA)
7 99
8.05
July
August
September
-1,074
-946
-831
7.00
7.01
7.13
8.06
8.05
8.36
6.07
6.02
6.32
5.75
6.00
6.26
93,196
93,796
94,494
79*055
79,884
80 , 889
8.82
8.36
8.36
8.40
October
November
December
-992
-988
-829
7.04
7.19
7.72
8.46
8.94
9.22
6.27
6.52
6.81
6.09
6.30
6.82
95,163
95,783
96,198
82,073
82,627
83,365
8.83
8.48
8.48
8.62
1970
January
February
March
-799
-819
-781
7.91
7.16
6.71
9.00
8.84
9.00
6.86
6.44
6.39
6.65
6.36
6.03
96,578
96,996
97,194
83,205
84,229
84,46?
8.86
(NA)
9.29
9.20
April
May
June
-704
-795
-701
6.^8
7.04
6.74
9.09
9.53
9.70
6.53
6.94
6.99
6.49
7.00
6.96
97,490
97,905
98,346
84,770
85,241
85,420
8.49
9.10
9.11
9.16
-1,217
-682
-335
6.50
6.41
6.24
9.09
9.08
9.00
6.57
6.75
6.63
6.53
6.20
6.25
98,789
99,021
99,380
85,599
86,220
86,230
8.50
9.11
9.07
9.01
July
August
September
October
November
December
1971
-208
-305
-49
5.93
5.29
4.86
9.14
8.97
8.13
6.59
6.24
5.97
6.39
5.93
5.46
99,298
98,996
99,017
84,649
83,982
83,566
8.07
8.97
8.90
8.40
January
February
March
-91
-127
4.49
3.77
3.32
7.63
7.54
7.62
5.92
5.84
5.71
5.36
5.23
5.17
99,104
99,206
99,701
83,252
83,740
83,890
6.58
...
7.32
5.75
5.37
5.90
5.95
100,364
100,857
101,382
83,283
83,876
83,959
6.00
1 r\o T / q
iu/i,i4j>
102 970
0)103 ,'969
83 414
r84 715
Jj) 86 430
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
-120
-8
-18
-322
(H) -658
-606
r-295
3.78
4.U
4.70
7.76
D8.25
8.15
E> 5.40
rt
5.91
rn\ £ n£
*> 7£
r 00
5 66
6 37
7.72
5
/6
J* V*
4 67
4.49
^115
^4.18
5.94
8 14
7 90
5.08
p-165
oy
H> 5.96
5
(
7.66
i
5.45
5.06
J
4
5.14
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
7.37
7.75
7.89
0) 7.97
6 50
7 Q2
7.84
g85,737
85,777
7.75
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
E). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 32, 33, and 39.
x
No current high. 3The survey in which these data are collected was revised, beginning with the 1st quarter 1971; thus,
data from that point are not strictly comparable withfaearlier data. 3Average for weeks ended November 3, 10, and 17.
b
6
Average for weeks ended November 4, 11, and 18.
Average for weeks ended November 5, 12, and 19.
Average for weeks
ended November 3 and 10,
76
NOVEMBER 1971
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
0 COMPOSITE INDEXES
UO. Twelve
eaders, reverse trend adusted1 (series
811. Twelve
leaders, prior
to trend adjustment (same
1, 5, 6, 10, 12, components as
16, 17, 19, 23, in series 810)
Year
and
month
29, 31, 113)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
1969
820. Five
coinciders, estimated aggregate economic
activity (series
41, 43, 47, 52,
56)
830. Six
Leading Indicator Subgroups
laggers (series
44, 61, 62, 67,
71,72) 2
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
(4)
(4)
813. Marginal
employment adjustments
(series 1,2, 3,
5)
814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,
12, 29)
(1967-100)
(1967=100)
815. Inventory 816. Profitinvestment and ability (series
purchasing
16, 17, 19)
(series 23, 25,
31,37)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
817. Sensitive
financial flows
(series 33, 85,
112, 113)
(1967-100)
January
February
March
114.8
116.4
116.1
107.2
108.3
107.6
115.3
116.8
117.6
116.0
117.4
119.0
103.6
103.5
103.9
110.9
111.7
110.0
100.6
103.1
103.0
101.9
102.5
101.9
105.9
106.2
104.5
April
118.0
118.2
117.5
109.0
108.7
107.7
118.1
119.1
119.9
119.8
121.3
123.4
104.7
104.0
103.6
111.7
110.0
109.8
104.6
104.5
103.0
102.2
103.1
101.8
105.3
105.7
105.7
117.6
117.5
118.5
107.4
106.9
107.4
120.2
121.0
121.1
125.1
127,4
128.2
103.0
102.3
102.6
110.1
109.7
109.9
105.3
105.0
105.7
100.6
99.6
99.5
102.1
102.5
102.7
118.2
117.4
117.6
106.7
105.6
105.4
121.9
121.9
121.9
129.2
129.9
131.1
101.9
101.2
100.4
109.1
108.5
109.1
105.9
105.2
105.1
99.3
98.9
96.8
102.6
101.9
99.1
116.2
116.5
115.0
103.7
103.7
101.9
121.0
121.2
121.2
131.9
131.4
131.2
98.3
96.6
94.1
108.0
108.4
105.6
103.9
105.4
104.8
96.5
95.8
95.9
99.2
100.0
98.8
June
114.9
113.8
114.4
101.5
100.1
100.3
121.6
121.0
121.0
131.3
131.0
131.0
93.2
92.9
93.3
106.1
106.3
106.0
104.2
102.4
103.6
95.5
92.8
92.9
100.6
100.5
100.6
July
August
September
116.2
115.2
114.5
101.5
100.2
99.3
120.9
120.8
120.4
131.7
132.3
131.9
94.4
92.9
90.9
106.5
106.3
105.6
104.2
102.5
102.1
93.5
93.6
93.6
101.4
100.1
98.3
October . . .November
December
113.6
113.7
116.1
98.1
97.8
99.5
118.4
117.4
118.9
130.7
129.3
127.5
89.4
90.4
91.9
105.6
106.2
107.9
101.3
102.6
102.0
93.3
92.0
93.3
93.7
r91.4
January
February
March
rll8.5
rl!9.8
r!22.1
rl01.2
rl01.9
r!03.5
120.6
121.4
122.0
125.9
124.3
124.6
93.1
93.7
94.1
1-108.9
rl08.6
riio.l
102.8
102.4
103.1
95.2
97.2
97.6
April
1*124.0
rl25.1
r!25.0
r!04.7
r!05.3
r!04.8
122.6
123.5
94.1
93.9
D94.1
rl09.8
rill. 4
rill. 8
D103.2
99.6
[H)125.6
123.8
123.2
124.2
102.7
101.3
H>100.5
rlOO.O
r!26.8
r!26.8
127.1
r!05.9
r!05.5
124.0
124.0
125.1
124.5
126.5
127,4
93.4
92.8
P91.7
r 113.0
rl!3.8
rll2.3
102.4
r!02.5
rl01.4
rlOO.l
r99.0
r99.2
D*no.3
P125.4
p!27.0
(NA)
H>pll3.9
pl01.2
p98.6
(M)
May
June
July.
August
September
.
...
October
November
December
1970
January
February
March
..
April
May
r96.5
1971
May
June
July
August
September
. ..
October
November
December
3
[H) 128.6
105.4
3
[H> 106.2
98.5
rlOO.4
rl04.7
r!05.9
r!05.7
r 108.0
rl09.5
p!08.2
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are
indicated by 0); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H>.
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an
asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not
available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 34 and 35.
1
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
Data beginning with January 1971 are not strictly comparable with earlier data because of technical changes in the collection
of data for one of the components (series 67). For this reason, no current high is indicated.
3
Excludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113, for which data are not yet available.
4
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
2
BCD NOVEMBER 1971
77
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter
410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
b. Second
c. First
anticipations as anticipations as
percent of actual percent of actual
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Bil. dol.)
412. Manufactur- 414. Condition
ers' inventories, of manufacturers'
total book value inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low
(Bil. dol.)
(Percent)
416. Adequacy 435. Index of
of mfrs.' capac- consumer
sentiment
ity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive
(First quarter
(Percent)
1966-100)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
63.09
66.29
67.77
69.05
100.0
104.0
102.7
103.9
101.2
102.1
105.1
103.1
145.3
149.5
151.8
156.0
85.7
87.6
89.3
90.7
22
22
21
16
35
35
40
95.0
92.4
92.9
92.1
72.52
73.94
77.84
77.84
102.7
104.4
102.8
100.0
101.5
100.3
157.6
159-4
163,0
163.7
92.3
93.9
95.5
96.7
18
19
22
22
43
38
39
41
95.1
91.6
86.4
79.7
78.22
80.22
81.88
78.63
102.3
100.5
99.0
103.9
103.6
103.4
101.7
104.6
163.4
164.1
166.1
160.3
97.9
98.7
99.6
23
23
21
20
38
36
33
33
78.
75.
77.
75.4
79.32
81.61
a82.38
a82.42
101.6
100.9
(NA)
102.6
101.1
(NA)
170.5
175.0
174.1
a!78.3
19
19
26
78.2
81.6
82.4
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
99.5
101.5
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
100.5
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
100.5
100.5
100.3
21
(NA)
(NA)
a!02.1
AGGREGATE SERIES--Con.
Year
and
quarter
420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reportinga. No change b. Higher
in income
income
(Percent)
(Percent)
c. Lower
income
(Percent)
425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households
a. Increase
in income
(Percent)
430. Household purchases of new cars
2-quarter moving average
a. Actual
b. Increase c. Decrease '(quarterly)
b.
Actual
d. Anticipated
c. Anticiless decrease in income
pated
as percent of
(Ann. rate, (Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate, actual
mil. cars)
mil. cars)
mil. cars)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
52.9
53.0
50.8
50.7
36.4
35.9
37.3
37.4
10.0
10.5
10.8
11.1
19.3
18.3
18.4
16.7
13.8
12.5
11.9
11.2
5.5
5.8
6.5
5.5
8.1
8.4
8.1
7.7
7.9
8.3
8.2
7.9
7.8
7.6
7.9
8.3
99
92
96
105
52.7
45.6
46.2
48.3
35.4
41.3
39.9
37.3
11.3
12.4
13.0
13.6
16.5
18.1
18.6
17.6
11.3
12.0
13.0
11.6
5.2
6.1
5.6
6.0
7.1
7.1
7.7
6,3
7.4
7.1
7.4
7.0
8.0
7.9
7.5
7.8
108
111
101
50.3
49.8
48.5
50.8
35.0
35.1
37.6
34.9
1*14.. 2
14-5
12.5
13.7
20.1
19.9
18.2
16.7
13.8
12.9
10.9
9.4
6.3
7.0
7.3
7.3
7.1
8.5
8.2
6.7
7.8
8.3
7.7
8.0
7.6
7.6
115
103
109
17.2
19.9
17.0
15.7
10.5
12.4
10.2
9.0
6.7
7.5
6.8
6.7
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
in
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40, 41, and 42.
78
NOVEMBER 1971
KCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter
D61. Business expenditures for new
plant and equipment, all industries
a. Actual b. Second
expendianticipations
tures
(1-Q span) (1-Q span)
c. First
anticipations
(1-Q span)
D446. Number of employD444. Net sales, manuees, mfg. and trade1
facturing and trade1
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade1
D440. New orders,
manufacturing1
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span) (4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Actual
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
83.3
66.7
75.0
a.7
94.4
83.3
61.1
55.6
58.3
63.9
66.7
53.3
81
80
76
72
82
85
83
80
70
74
68
66
78
79
77
76
80
34
78
76
86
88
86
83
59
60
58
58
60
60
60
59
77.3
47.2
58.3
19.4
69.4
61.1
25.0
44.4
38.9
55.6
66.7
50.0
66
64
60
55
76
71
74
74
61
56
55
56
70
66
70
66
70
66
64
62
74
73
78
76
54
54
51
50
58
56
56
54
50.0
61.1
(NA)
33.3
58.3
47.2
41.7
58.3
63.9
50.0
70
70
76
78
85
81
63
64
66
71
74
80
78
70
72
74
78
80
86
84
48
52
53
55
58
58
56
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1972
58
83
76
82
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
DIFFUSION INDEXES--Con.
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and tradeI
Year
and
quarter
Anticipated
Actual
Selling prices
D460. Manufacturing
and trade1
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
71
70
70
68
66
68
66
66
84
84
85
85
78
66
61
62
58
62
61
64
58
62
62
62
60
62
65
65
D462. Manufacturing1
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
D464. Wholesale trade1
Anticipated
Actual
D466. Retail trade1
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
84
84
84
86
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
75
79
78
85
85
86
85
79
91
90
90
81
82
80
82
82
84
82
82
80
78
78
80
77
80
78
75
79
76
78
75
87
85
86
84
77
80
82
86
86
85
86
80
80
71
78
78
78
78
76
76
75
75
85
86
73
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
81
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
74
76
68
82
82
82
86
84
73
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
61
68
68
70
67
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 43 and 44.
"""This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
ICO
NOVEMBER 1971
79
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
RHj FOREIGN TRADE
500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)
Year
and
month
(Mil. dol.)
1969
January
February
March.
(Mil. dol.)
+169
-406
+206
April
May
June
+136
July
August
September
+108
October
November
December
1970
January.
. ...
February
March
...
October
November
December
p i Ai
2 266
3 188
3 318
3 ?68
512. General imports, total
(1957-59=100)
(Mil. dol.)
83/
1 391
1 118
p/p
*C/H£
2 r\r\p
2 A79
2 Qdp
260
ppp
248
Q
2*58
pr£.
3 ,*OO
3 179
P&n
3 1 ^9
3 182
3 366
1 215
1,239
q q/i
1 317
276
?^1
o£A
q 07;
3 l£>3
3 O78
+150
+218
3 3A2
3 398
1 3/1
1,312
p^7
p/y
3 1QP
+202
3,280
1,370
246
3 078
+183
3,406
3,546
+156
3,375
1 174
1,561
1,578
240
27,7,
261
3 222
+267
+148
3,410
3,661
3,727
1,493
1,175
1,342
263
3,704
3,591
3,553
1,258
1,357
1,674
27*5
3 25A
267
3,346
262
3,423
3,688
3,499
3,569
1,384
1,364
1,884
222
2L2.
236
3,498
3,428
3,402
1,518
1,472
1.A69
232
217
224
3,686
3,553
3,569
246
238
?An
3 758
3,988
4,023
+J24.
+462
July
August .
September
(Mil. dol.)
508. Index of export orders,
nonelectrical machinery
1 110
+204
+262
....
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles and parts
1 222
1 21]
+11
+27
April .
May
June
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
+450
+245
+130
KL90
+71
+168
-i £0
3 180
3.27Q
3,219
3,262
3.337
3,265
266
270
1971
January
February
March
+136
+245
3,735
3,690
3,815
April . .
May
June
-236
-205
-363
3,522
3,783
3,661
1,431
1,242
1,503
July
August
September
-304
-260
3,494
1 298
rl 450
+265
i *n i
4,r>j_-L
CfrOT
p-o^il
_o
r\
p^ ,17-1/.LU
October
November
December
+49
•2
£7£
pj-,2 f*o
T\l
*>76
(NA)
q 7QQ
O/n
247
r/c63
p252
3,937
4,245
/•.TA N
P3,531
/-)/• 0
(NA.)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 45.
80
NOVEMBER 1971
!!€!»
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter
250. Balance
on goods and
services
(Mil.dol.)
519. Balance on
current account
and long term
capital
517. Balance
515. Balance
on goods, services, on current
account
and remittances
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
521. Net
liquidity balance
530. Liquid
liabilities to all
foreigners1®
522. Official
reserve transactions balance
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil, dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
473
852
848
317
194
576
525
26
-168
154
90
-462
-257
95
-433
-754
-624
-98
-357
-531
-163
1,887
327
-410
32,482
32,514
33,507
33,828
338
296
708
669
52
-22
386
328
-292
-543
15
-80
-147
-2,019
-1,070
356
-1,234
-3,019
-1,996
163
1,337
1,659
-679
384
34,930
39,043
42,655
41,776
881
1,045
995
670
543
683
636
319
125
292
192
-166
-1,297
-570
-340
-832
-1,254
-868
-675
-1,024
-2,864
-1,404
-2,075
-3,478
42,972
43,380
44,216
43,277
1,147
-22
p217
805
P-379
(NA)
377
p-864
(NA)
-1,306
P-3,141
(NA)
r-2,511
r-5,723
p-9,299
r-5,531
r-5,725
p-12,108
45,531
(NA)
1369
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
532. Liquid
and certain
nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies1®
(Mil.dol.)
534. U.S.
official
reserve
assets 2 ®
(Mil.dol.)
535. Allocations to the
U.S. of
Special
Drawing
Rights
(Mil.dol.)
Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
Goods and services
Merchandise, adjusted3
Income on investment, military
transactions, other sen/., total
252. Exports
253. Imports
536. Exports
537. Imports
540. Exports
541. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1968
18,407
16,994
17,493
18,574
13,926
14,063
14,634
15,710
11,956
12,686
13,284
12,701
11,483
11,834
12,436
12,384
7,947
8,385
8,878
8,378
7,821
6,134
8,568
8,441
4,009
4,301
4,406
4,323
3,662
3,700
3,868
3,943
16,911
16,006
17,732
17,162
15,758
16,057
16,743
16,964
11,995
U,222
14,574
14,811
11,657
13,926
13,866
14,142
7,510
9,490
9,602
9,888
7,589
9,566
9,278
9,397
4,485
4,732
4,972
4,923
4,068
4,360
4,588
4,745
19,404
20,451
22,262
24,396
17,350
16,328
15,527
U,487
217
217
217
216
15,374
15,806
15,930
15,795
14,493
14,761
14,935
15,125
10,241
10,582
10,696
10,461
9,728
5,133
5,224
5,234
5,334
4,765
4,930
4,943
4,806
p28,942
(NA)
14,342
180
179
179
179
16,547
pl6,632
(NA)
15,400
pl6,654
(NA)
5,517
plO,7l6
(NA)
4,639
P4,898
(NA)
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
9,831
9,992
10,319
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
13,504
(NA)
11,030
10,761
pll,756
(NA)
P5,916
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimates; "a",'anticipated; and "NA", not available; SDR indicates Special Drawing Rights.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46, 47, and 48.
1
2
3
Amount outstanding at end of quarter.
Reserve position at end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes
transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).
4
Data for first quarter 1970 to date are not comparable with earlier data.
l»fj) NOVEMBER 1971
81
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS--Con,
Year
and
quarter
Income on Investment, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)
Travel
Income on Investments
542. U.S. invest- 543. Foreign
investments in
ments abroad
the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
Transportation and other services
Military transactions
546. Sales under 547. Military
545. Payments
544. Receipts
expenditures
from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military conabroad®
tracts
elers in the U.S. abroad
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
548. Receipts
from
549. Payments
for
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
2,126
2,373
2,398
2,339
696
744
775
800
433
431
451
460
755
737
787
743
302
344
393
357
1,103
1,112
1,147
1,173
1,148
1,153
1,164
1,167
1,108
1,107
1,159
1,227
2,471
2,585
2,716
2,767
929
1,078
1,2^2
1,315
498
518
519
523
820
849
864
857
407
329
442
336
1,198
1,187
1,221
1,251
1,109
1,300
1,295
1,297
1,121
1,246
1,261
1,322
2,925
2,791
2,855
2,839
1,348
1,322
1,284
1,213
556
573
589
601
925
1,010
1,021
997
274
447
327
433
I,j82
1,255
1,211
1,203
1,378
1,413
1,463
1,461
1,310
1,343
1,427
1,393
2,897
1,137
pi,084
(NA)
596
P599
(NA)
967
p-1,098
(NA)
507
p543
(NA)
-1,174
p-1,220
1,517
1,361
pl,535
pl,496
(NA)
(NA)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
P3,239
(NA)
(NA)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS--Con.
Year
and
quarter
Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)
Securities investments
561. U.S. investments
abroad
(Mil. dol.)
564. Foreign purchases 565. U.S. purchases
of foreign securities
of U.S. securities
(Mil. dol.)
570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
575. Banking and
other capital transactions, net
(Mil.dol.)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
251
5
23
41
456
843
1,033
876
839
1,122
1,115
1,312
347
105
259
515
-938
-354
-728
-449
341
402
-34
422
246
164
152
270
926
999
899
430
1,388
365
396
963
365
499
506
125
-841
-1,344
-1,304
-652
-29
-426
21
-126
486
105
218
160
1,358
1,257
697
934
304
374
720
210
-93
488
337
-1,237
-364
-890
-1,203
-198
-122
-138
120
92
p-24
(NA)
1,370
pl,315
(NA)
559
p206
(NA)
353
p396
(NA)
-1,240
p-1,265
(NA)
-827
p-628
(NA)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 5(J.
82
NOVEMBER 1971
BCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
QH FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Year
and
month
600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (-), national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
Defense Indicators
602. Federal
264. National
expenditures, defense pur*
national income chases
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
195*. 6
186*. 5
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
61B. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
(Mil. dol.)
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Mil. dol.)
648. New or647. New orders, defense ders, defense
products indus- products
tries
(Bil. dol.)
625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
(Mil. dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
1969
January . . .
February
March
+9*1
78*3
7,578
7,050
6,543
2,088
2,075
1,701
4-05
3.77
3.59
1.93
2.17
2.17
3,398
3,441
2,904
April . .
May . .
June
+11*. 7
199*. 3
187 ".6
77.5
6,520
6,319
6,144
1,638
1,528
1,550
3.73
3.62
2.91
1.95
1.83
1.39
2,825
3,070
2,744
July
August
September
+5*.i
195'.8
190*. 7
79-4
6,906
6,472
6,394
1,447
1,476
1,752
4.03
3.07
3.41
2.45
1.61
1.44
2,896
3,001
2,680
October
November
December
+y.4
196*. 8
193*.4
78*4-
7,041
7,091
7,088
1,867
1,820
2,103
3.51
3.88
3.56
1.89
2.35
1.93
2,987
2,734
2,765
-4*. 5
191.6
196.1
78.*9
7,045
6,516
6,519
1,807
1,523
1,669
3.45
3.59
3.53
1.90
1.74
1.58
2,855
2,623
2,904
April
May
June
-u'.i
193^8
207^9
75 .'i
6,643
6,118
6,505
1,559
1,486
1,771
3.37
3.60
3.42
1.38
1.89
1.85
2,545
2,896
July
August .
September
-15 !i
19l'.3
206>! 7
74*2
7,111
6,035
-6,407
1,825
1,332
1,542
4-18
3.67
3.19
3.07
1.85
2.00
2,782
6,251
7,166
7,195
1,459
2,041
2,105
3.12
3.81
3.97
2.12
2.02
2.05
2,239
1970
January
February
March
. .
October
November
December
-20 ".5
189*. 3
209!$
73.*2
2,591
2,717
2,113
3,464
2,746
3,181
1971
2,508
January
February
March
-17 15
195 .*6
213*2
73.0
7,055
6,928
6,793
2,171
1,470
3.85
3.25
3.28
2.17
2.36
1.58
April
May
June
-22.6
• ••
198.3
220*. 9
71*. 8
6,991
6,257
5,780
1,686
1,329
1,252
3.50
3.23
3.63
1.50
1.57
1.68
(NA)
(NA)
p-21.2
p202.6
r223.9
4.25
3.63
2.90
2.15
r3.02
rl.47
2,647
P3.21
pi. 96
(M)
July
August
September
...
October
November
December
r70.8
2,619
3,398
2,751
2,112
2,367
'
3,082
3,219
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.
Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 51 and 52.
ltd*
NOVEMBER 1971
83
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Qj PRICE MOVEMENTS
Consumer price indexes
Year
and
month
781. All items® 782. Food
(1967=100)
783. Commodities less foods
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
Wholesale price indexes
784. Services® 750. All commod- 58. Manufacities ®
tured goods®
751. Processed
foods and
feeds
752. Farm products
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
0967=100)
1969
January
February . . .
March
106.7
107.1
108.0
105.9
105.9
106.5
105.6
106.2
107.1
108.8
109.4
110.3
104.3
104.8
105.4
104-3
104.9
105.2
103.6
103.9
104.8
105.4
105.0
106.3
April
May
June
108.7
109.0
109.7
107.1
107.7
108.8
107.3
107.6
108.0
111.2
111.7
112.2
105.5
106.3
106.8
105.4
105.8
106.3
105.9
107.4
108.1
106.7
110.0
110.4
July
August
September
110.2
110.7
111.2
109.3
109.8
110.5
108.3
108.5
108.8
112.8
113.5
114-3
107.0
106.9
107.1
106.5
106.5
106.8
108. 1
108.3
108.2
109.3
109.9
109.3
October
November .
December
1970
January.
February
March
111.6
112.2
112.9
110.4
111.9
113.0
109.3
109.6
110.0
114.7
115.3
116.1
107.4
108.1
108.6
107.4
107.8
108.1
109.3
109.8
110.6
110.3
113.0
113.5
113.3
113.9
1H. 5
113.5
114.3
114.4
110.3
110.5
110.7
117.1
118.0
119.3
109.3
109.7
109.9
108.8
109.1
109.3
111.7
112.0
112.4
112.9
113.5
113-6
April
May
June. .
115.2
115.7
116.3
114-9
115 a
115.0
111.4
112.0
112.4
120.1
120.7
121.4
109.9
110.1
110.3
109.6
109.7
110.0
112.6
111.5
110.9
112.2
109.8
110.0
July
August
September
116.7
116.9
117.5
115.1
115.1
115.5
112.6
112.9
113.5
122.0
122.7
123.5
110.9
110.5
111.0
110.6
110 6
110.8
in. 8
112.3
112.4
111.0
109.5
132.6
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
118.1
118.5
119.1
115.5
115.6
115.5
114.Q
114.5
115.3
124.1
124.9
125.6
111.0
110.9
111.0
111.2
111.2
111.2
112.2
112.5
111.6
110.2
108.5
108.2
119.2
119.4
119.8
115.5
116.1
117.2
115.5
115.4
115.6
126.3
126.6
126.6
111.8
112.8
113.0
111.8
112.4
112.7
111.5
113.2
114.3
109.0
113.4
112.0
April
May
June
120.2
120.8
121.5
118.2
118.4
119.0
115.8
116.6
117.0
126.8
127.5
128.2
113.3
113.8
114.3
113.0
113.5
113.8
114.3
115.0
114-1
113.6
112.4
1U.3
July
August
September
121.8
122.2
122.4
119.1
119.2
118.9
117.1
117.7
117.9
128.8
129.4
129.9
114.6
114.9
114.5
114.5
114.9
114.7
114.5
114.8
114.0
111.0
114.2
110.9
October
November
December
122.6
118.9
117.8
130.1
114.4
114.5
114.6
113.8
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p" f preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 53 and 54.
84
NOVEMBER 1971
!!€!»
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q| ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
Year
and
quarter
207. Gap (potential less actual)
Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
206. Potential level1
205. Actual value
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1968
First quarter. . . .
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
692.6
705.3
712.3
716.5
689.6
696.4
703.3
710.2
-3.0
-8.9
-9.0
-6.3
721.4
72^.2
727.8
725.2
717.2
724.3
731.4
738.6
-4.2
+0.1
+3.6
+13.4
719.8
721.1
723.3
715.9
746.4
754.3
762.3
770.4
+26.6
+33.2
+39.0
+54.5
729.7
738.4
r745.5
778.5
786.7
795.1
+48.8
+48.3
r+49.6
1969
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1970
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . •
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 55.
1
Based on a trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th
quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to the 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and
4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to 3rd quarter 1971.
NOVEMBER 1971
85
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q| ANALYTICAL RATIOS
Year
and
month
850. Ratio,
output to capacity, manufacturing
851. Ratio,
inventories
to sales, marv
ufacturing
and trade
(Percent)
(Ratio)
1
(x)
1969
C)
• ••
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods
industries
(Ratio)
859. Real
spendable
avg. wkly.
earnings,
nonagri.
prod, or
nonsupv.
workers
857. Vacancy rate in
total rental
housing ©
853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer
goods
854. Ratio,
personal saving to disposable personal
income
860. Ratio,
help-wanted
advertising
to persons
unemployed
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
n on farm
856. Real
avg. hourly
earnings,
prod, workers,
mfg.
(1967 = 100)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
(1967=100)
(1967 dol.)
(1967 dol.)
(Percent)
January
February
March
87.7
1.56
1.56
1.56
3.26
3.23
3.23
96.6
95.7
95.9
0.053
1.326
1.384
1.361
1-103! 1
2.91
2.90
2.90
91.13
90.71
90.86
5.'6
April
May
June
87.1
1.56
1.55
1.56
3.26
3.30
3.23
98.0
96.4
97.4
0.053
1.336
1.346
1.310
rl02!8
2.90
2.90
2.90
91.17
91.18
90.86
5!i
July
August
September
86*.9
1.57
1.56
1.56
3.26
3.24
3.21
97. a
96.9
98.2
0.066
1.275
1.251
1.214
r!02.7
2.90
2.92
2.91
90.73
90.88
91.26
5!o
October
November
December
84/3
1.56
1.58
1.60
3.14
3.18
3.20
98.0
96.6
97.0
0.066
1.194
1.226
1.183
102! 4
2.91
2.91
2.91
90.93
90.72
90.61
4*.7
80.6
...
1.59
1.58
1.59
3.17
3.14
3.14
95.5
94.4
95.5
0.069
1.006
0.949
0.844
r!02.1
...
2.89
2.88
2.89
90.45
90.37
90.38
5.*0
April
May
June
79*.6
1.61
1.58
1.58
3.U
3.03
3.00
93.5
92.4
91.9
0.079
0.760
0.733
0.699
rl03.*l
2.88
2.89
2.89
90.10
89.62
89.99
5!6
July
August
September
78.0
1.59
rl.58
rl.59
2.97
2.97
2.89
91.4
91.1
91.3
0.082
0.654
0.621
r 0.563
1-104! 6
2.90
2.91
2.91
90»36
90,71
89.56
4!9
October
November
December
74.0
rl.62
rl.64
rl.6l
2.93
2.97
2.97
88.0
87.8
86.3
0.083
0.504
0.483
0.462
rl04.1
2.85
2.86
2.91
89.36
89.62
89.81
4.8
January
February
March
P74*5
rl.58
rl.55
rl.54
2.98
2.97
2.87
83.5
85.0
84.3
0.081
0.443
0.473
0.464
105.8
2.93
2.93
2.94
90.46
r90.78
r91.25
4*.9
April
May
June
p75*i
rl.54
rl.53
rl.52
2.83
2.72
2.58
83.0
81.6
0.082
0.456
0.450
0.527
r!07!o
2.95
2.94
2.94
91.67
91.33
91.59
4-!9
July
August
September
p73*.2
rl.53
1.53
pl.54
r2.74
r2.74
2.71
r83.0
r83.5
r83.9
0.077
0,517
0.494
0.469
P107.5
2.93
2.94
2.94
r91.33
91.75
r91.30
'$.3
(M)
(M)
p84.1
P2.93
P91.86
1970
January
February
March
.. .
1971
October
November
December
81.8
pO.482
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p" f preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 56 and 57.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
86
NOVEMBER 1971
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E3J DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
Dl. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing (21
industries)
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
(35 industries)
1-month
span
1-month
span
Revised3
9-month
span
1969
9-month
span
Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
The Conference Board
(17 industries)1
1-quarter
span
3-quarter
span
D34. Profits,
D19. Index of stock
mfg.,
prices, 500 common
FNCB
(about 1,000 stocks (75 industries)©2
corporations)
1-quarter
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices (13
industrial materials)
1-month
span
9-month
span
Revised3,
January
February
March
47.6
31.0
97.6
38.1
23.8
23.8
54.3
62.9
62.9
74.3
62.9
65.7
59
65
52
12.0
43.3
13.3
73.3
40.0
14.7
53.8
61.5
46.2
84.6
80.8
76.9
Apri 1
May
June
35.7
47.6
50.0
35.7
38.1
28.6
48.6
48.6
40.0
57.1
65.7
54.3
56
59
55
54.0
74.7
1.3
12.0
6.7
21.3
65.4
57.7
76.9
69.2
76.9
92.3
July
August
September
21.4
54. B
52.4
66.7
16.7
11.9
57.1
35.7
62.9
47.1
42.9
45.7
35
47
49
4.0
34.7
61.3
25.3
21.3
20.0
61.5
76.9
57.7
76.9
76.9
69.2
October
November
December
19.0
52.4
78.6
16.7
11.9
11.9
54.3
38.6
50.0
38.6
42.9
30.0
41
41
50
72.7
68.0
4.0
14.7
25.3
31.5
46.2
50.0
50.0
69.2
69.2
76.9
47.1
48.6
50.0
51.4
42.9
37.1
47
29
51
43.3
23.3
82.7
5.5
5.6
5.6
50.0
30.8
57.7
61.5
42.3
38.5
54.3
62.9
54-3
42.9
45.7
34.3
53
32
47
16.4
2.7
47.9
6.9
25.0
27.8
61.5
53.8
19.2
34.6
34.6
38.5
48.6
65.7
65.7
35
24
52
41.7
77.8
96.5
31.9
46.5
72.2
46.2
42.3
46.2
19.2
15.4
15.4
1970
January
February
March
23.8
28.6
31.0
26.2
April .
May
June
23.8
26.2
52.4
11.9
14.3
July
August
September
69.0
19.0
9.5
19.0
42.9
45.7
44.3
45.7
October....
November
December
73.8
71.4
71.4
42.9
59.5
45.2
25.7
65.7
60.0
60.0
65.7
51.4
47
35
40
72.2
48.6
98.6
95.8
97.2
98.6
30.8
42.3
19.2
15.4
30.8
46.2
January
February
March
•61.9
45.2
76.2
83.3
83.3
85.7
60.0
45.7
60.0
71.4
74.3
82.9
59
29
60
95.8
87.5
71.5
98.6
95.1
91.0
46.2
61.5
80.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
April
May
June
42.9
71.4
54.8
r78.6
r6l.9
P59.5
44.3
70.0
54.3
80.0
68.6
P54.3
35
P68
61
84.0
41.7
27.8
97.2
77.8
56.9
80.8
38.5
46.2
61.5
69.2
69.2
58
44.4
23.6
71.5
9.5
9.5
7.1
9.5
1971
July
August
September
64.3
r38.1
rl6»7
50.0
58.6
r34-3
October
November
December
P71.4
P45.7
p76
18.1
57.7
61.5
53.8
4
61.5
46.2
26.9
4
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are
placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed
on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the
index. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
•"•This is a copyrighted series used "by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board.
2
Based on 75 components through March 1970, on 73 components through May 1970, and on 72 components thereafter. Component
data are not shown in table E4 but are available from the source agency.
"See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iji.
4
Average for November 2, 9, and 16.
ItCII NOVEMBER 1971
87
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
0
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators-Con.
Year
and
month
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas)1
1-month
span
9-month
span
Roughly Coincident Indicators
D41. Number of employees
on nonagricultural payrolls
(30 industries)
1-month
span
6-month
span
1969
D47. Index of industrial
production (24 industries)
1-month
span
6-month
span
Revised2
Revised
D58. Index of wholesale
prices (22 manufacturing
industries)®
1-month
span
6-month
span
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month
span
9-month
span
January
February
March
72.3
38.3
55.3
70.2
46.8
40.4
80.0
68.3
70.0
83.3
78.3
71.7
70.8
66.7
79.2
70.8
70.8
79.2
68.2
75.0
75.0
81.8
79.5
84.1
69.6
60.9
21.7
73.9
82.6
71.7
April
May
June
48.9
57.4
23.4
58.5
34.0
25.5
53.3
55.0
71.7
71.7
70.0
60.0
29.2
62.5
66.7
70.8
75.0
58.3
84.1
79.5
84.1
90.9
90.9
88.6
73.9
41.3
54.3
67.4
65.2
56.5
July
August
September
51.1
59.6
38.3
28.7
24.5
8.5
48.3
56.7
48.3
51.7
55.0
48.3
58.3
41.7
47.9
66.7
60.4
45.8
77.3
68.2
77.3
86.4
86.4
81.8
45.7
50.0
30.4
50.0
52.2
56.5
October .
November . . . .
December
45.7
31.9
57.4
6.4
12.8
12.8
56.7
45.0
53.3
48.3
41.7
41.7
60.4
47.9
41.7
29.2
33.3
16.7
68.2
84.1
72.7
81.8
81.8
72.7
63.0
34.8
60.9
73.9
65.2
87.0
January
February . . .
March
31.9
25.5
44.7
4.3
2.1
11.7
40.0
41.7
36.7
33.3
31.7
28.3
12.5
66.7
31.2
33.3
29.2
27.1
86.4
77.3
72.7
79.5
77.3
75.0
60.9
58.7
50.0
78.3
82.6
82.6
April
May
June
25.5
63.8
42.6
6.4
12.8
2.1
26.7
20.0
26.7
25.0
18.3
16.7
60.4
31.2
31.2
54.2
41.7
50.0
68.2
68.2
56.8
77.3
84.1
86.4
82.6
54.3
39.1
91.3
82.6
82.6
July
August
September
59.6
42.6
31.9
12.8
25.5
55.3
33.3
25.0
55.0
16.7
20.0
20.0
64.6
33.3
33.3
33.3
33.3
37.5
61.4
70.5
77.3
75.0
81.8
77.3
56.5
65.2
50.0
78.3
69.6
67.4
53.2
57.4
70.2
55.3
51.1
46.8
31.7
38.3
58.3
25.0
31.7
33.3
33.3
25.0
54.2
37.5
39.6
41.7
75.0
61.4
56.8
72.7
81.8
81.8
67.4
54.3
47.8
56.5
78.3
91.3
January
February
March
38.3
61.7
42.6
46.8
61.7
72.3
51.7
41.7
40.0
48.3
65.0
46.7
50.0
50.0
29.2
66.7
70.8
70.8
79.5
75.0
72.7
77.3
81.8
81.8
43.5
65.2
73.9
80.4
87.0
(NA^
April
May
June
48.9
44.7
40.4
57.4
21.3
48.9
76.7
80.0
33.3
33.3
r46.7
r65.0
79.2
56.2
47.9
r54-2
r56.2
r66.7
68.2
72.7
72.7
90.9
95.5
86.4
73.9
52.2
73.9
July
August
September
57.4
25.5
46.8
41.7
r55.0
r93.3
r37.5
r43.8
r56.2
P58.3
86.4
90.9
38.6
86.4
October
November
December
57.4
P56.7
1970
...
October
November
December
1971
p6l.7
P66.7
25.0
3
3
(NA)
87.0
30.4
(NA)
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are
placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed in the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except
in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and a NA", not available.
Unadjusted series are indicated by®.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
•"•Component data are not available for publication and therefore are not shown in table E4.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
3
These data are not comparable with earlier data due to a revised sample.
NOVEMBER 1971
BCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1971
Diffusion index components
March
April
May
June
July
October p
September1*
August
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING1
(Average weekly hours)
o
All manufacturing industries
39.8 o
(76)
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
+ 41.9
39.8 +
40.0 o
(71)
(43)
40.0 o
(55)
+
39.7
40.0
39.8
39.6
(64)
(38)
(17)
41.9
41.4
40.1
39.4
o
+
+
41.4
40.7
39.6
41.4
39.7
+
+
42.0
40.1
+ 39.9 +
+ 39.7
41.5 o
40.1
39.5 +
41.5 +
39.8 +
39.9 o
41.6 +
40.4 +
39.9 +
41.9
40.5
40.1
o
-
r40.2
r39.9
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
+
+
/U.7
4.0.8 +
41.1 +
41.0 o
41.4 +
41.0 o
42.0
41.0
41.8
40.6
o
-
r38.8
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
+
40.3
4-0.2
40.1
40.0
Electrical equipment and supplies
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
41.8
+
(71)
+
+
40.7
40.5 +
40.6 +
40.7 o
40.7
40.7
+
r40.2
r40.8
39.4
40.7
+
+
40.2
40.8
o 39.7 +
+ 41.7
39.8 +
40.6 +
39.9 o
41.1 +
39.9 +
41.4
40.1
39.5
40.0
+
r39.9
39.6
38.9
+
+
40.2
39.7
o 39.7 o
+ 38.8
39.7 +
38.6 +
40.0
38.9
+
+
39.8
39.2
o
<*
r39.8
39.7
38.8
+
+
39.8
39.0
- 40.5 o
+ 38.0
40.5 0
37.5 +
40.5
38.3 -
40.4 +
36.2 +
40.5
39.6
o
-
r40.5 +
r37.1
40.7
36.5
+ 40.3 +
+ 35.2
40.4 +
35.1 +
40.8 o
35.5
40.8
35.4 +
40.3
35.8
+
-
r40.7
r35.7
40.3
35.4
+
+
41.0
35.7
+ 41.9 +
+ 37.5 o
42.3
37.5 +
42.1 +
37.7 o
42.3 +
37.7
42.4
37.6
o
r42.4
Printing and publishing . „
41.9
37.4
o
41.8
37.4
Chemicals and allied products . „
Petroleum and coal products
-
41.4 +
41.9
41.7
41.7 o
41.5 +
41.7 +
41.7
42.3 +
41.4
r42.6
+
+
+ 40.3 o
+ 37.4 +
40.3 +
38.3
40.4 +
37.8
40.7
37.5 +
40.3
37.7
-
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c
Leather and leather products
0
39.7
38.7
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
Percent rising of 35 components
+ 31,472 (60)
37.5
(70)
(54)
+
42.2
42.8
r40.1 o
r37.6
40.1
37.4
41.5
43.4
40.0
35.2
41.2
41.6
+
+
40.5
37.9
31,026 +
31,064
(34)
(46)
2
30,228 + 30,601 + 30,666 + r31,955 (44)
39.2
(50)
31,758
-
(59)
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
+ r5,155 - r4,882 - r4,800 + r3,576 - r3,419 + r3,532 -
4,536 3,462 +
4,434
3,489
+
4,184
3,577
+
4,517 +
3,520 -
4,596
3,329
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
+ r4,985 - r4,599 + r4,809 +
+ r4,291 + r4,310 + r4,409 -
5,122 4,333 +
4,823
4,827
+
-
5,072
4,584
+
+
5,105 +
4,628 +
5,286
4,745
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries
- r7,627 - r7,032 - r6,958 +
+ r5,838 + r5,986 + r6,093 +
7,065 + r8,062 +
6,148 + 6,320 +
7,923
6,418
7,130 6,126 +
6,785
6,323
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA= not available, p = preliminary. r= revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication;
totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here.
2
IICII
NOVEMBER 1971
however,, they are all included in the
89
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1971
Diffusion index components
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November1
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price
index (1967 -100)
+
107.8 +
110.2
108.6
-
106.1 - 104.7 +
106.1 + 107.5
- 107.4 - 107.0
(Dollars)
(81)
Percent rising of 73 components
Copper scrap (Ib )
Lead scrap (Ib )
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (Ib)
Zinc (Ib.)
Burl ao fvd }
0
••
o
Cotton (Ib.), 12-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops(lb.)
Hides (Ib.)
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
(81)
.478
+
-448 +
o
.048 o
.048 +
35.380 0
35.674 + 1.683 + 1.684
+
.152 +
.155 +
.182
+
.153 +
+
.261 +
.265 +
+
.260 +
.278
1.067 + 1.091
+
.160 +
.167 0
+
17.928 +
18.000 +
+
.192 +
.196
+
.079
.075
(58)
(46)
(38)
(62)
.451
.049
.472
.056
(46)
(54)
•445 +
+ .050 +
32.081
- 29.787 + 31.163 + 32.673
35.389
1.683
+ 1.687 + 1.701 + 1.704 - 1.688
+
.161 + .163 +
.158
.170
o .170
.178
+ .190 + .193
+ .192
.187
.267
+ .269 + .272 + .284 + .291
.266
.266
+ .273 o .273
- .265
1.021
.979
.903
.909
+ .905
.166
.167
.163 + .169
+ .173
18.036 - 17.968 - 17.839 + 17.966 - 17.893
.162 +
.180
- .178
.169
.195
.070
.071
+
.071
.073
.074
.464 +
.054 +
- .451
o .056
(27)
•436
.416
o .055
.055
+ 35.522 - 31.345
- 1.681 - 1.677
0
.170
.169
o
.192
.186
+
+
+
+
.294
.266
.903
.174
17.745
.179
.069
+
+
+
-
.301
.264
.904
.179
17.662
.172
.068
D4L NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 3
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls ... +
Percent rising of 30 components
70,480 +
(40)
70,599 +
(77)
Ordnance and accessories
99
97 +
Lumber and wood products »
488 +
+
487 +
Furniture and fixtures
+
370 +
372 +
492 +
498 +
Stone, clay, and glass products
+
1,002
+ 1,008 +
Primary metal industries
980 + 1,014 +
Fabricated metal products
1,172
Machinery, except electrical ......
1,163
Electrical equipment
1,173 + 1,177 +
Transportation equipment
1,225 o 1,225 +
Instruments and related products. . .
253 o
253 +
Miscellaneous manufacturing
316 +
317 +
Food and kindred products
1,181 +
1,184
Tobacco manufactures
66
64 +
Textile mill products
84.0 +
839 +
Apparel and other textile products. . + 1,197 + 1,202 +
Paper and allied products
526 +
527
Printing and publishing
668
666 +
Chemicals and allied products
583 +
584 +
Petroleum and coal products
116 o
116 o
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c. . +
440 +
443 +
Leather and leather products
262 +
265 +
o
622 +
Mining
623
3,282
Contract construction
+
3,264 +
4,520
Transportation and public utilities. .
4,505 +
+
3,852 +
Wholesale trade
3,854 +
11,222 +
Retail trade
«... +
11,253 +
+
3,758 +
Finance, insurance, real estate
3,769 *•
Service
+
11,841 o
11,843 +
o
2,662 +
Federal government
2,667 o
State and local government
+
10,130 +
10,164 +
70,769 (80)
98
491
375
502
1,012
1,020
1,159
1,184
1,253
255
318
1,184
65
845
1,204
519
667
588
116
448
266
+
+
+
o
-
+
o
+
622
3,275
4,518
3,866
11,282
3,788
11,858
2,667
10,191
+
+
+
+
70,657 (33)
95
495
378
499
996
1,013
1,152
1,179
1,246
256
318
1,178
64
838
1,188
520
667
585
115
449
265
619
3,255
4,500
3,837
11,298
3,807
11,895
2,640
10,198
+
+
+
+
+
o
70,531 o r70,529 +r70,907
(42)
(55)
(93)
93
500
380
496
965
1,016
1,156
1,169
1,244
257
318
+ 1,188
56
+
841
- 1,179
515
661
582
o
115
+
450
259
597
3,228
4,476
3,835
+ 11,323
o
3,806
+ 11,921
+
2,643
- 10,169
+
94
+
r503 +
+
375
+
r497 +
r901 +
o 1,016 +
+ rl,159 +
- 1,167 +
+ r 1,248 +
r256 +
o
r3l8 +
o
o
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
93
508
383
502
r925
rl,025
rl,174
rl,!88
rl,257
r26l
320
rl,179 + rl,193
56 +
841 +
r58
520 +
r531
r842
rl,l80 + rl,!88
r658 +
577 +
r660
r582
+
116
rl!5
r458
r447 +
261
r264
609 +
r6l4
r3,219 + r3,244
r4,428 + r4,456
r3,844 + r3,86l
rll,379 +rll,405
3,804 + r3,8l9
rll,946 +rll,986
2,650 + r2,674
rlO,193 +rlO,229
o p70,901
(57)
+
+
+
+
+
o
92
512
387
505
938
1,018
1,178
1,186
1,253
261
319
- 1,165
56
+
844
+ 1,192
528
+
663
580
o
116
+
459
+
263
521
+
3,259
- 4,431
+
3,883
- 11,388
+
3,826
+ 12,018
+
2,677
+ 10,267
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) - unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Average for November 2, 9, and 16.
2
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
3
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
90
NOVEMBER 1971
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1971
Diffusion index components
March
April
June
May
August
July
September1"
October p
+ 106.1
+ 106.3
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1967-100)
All industrial production
- 105.5
Percent rising of 24 components
(29)
Durable manufactures:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
+
-
Machinery and allied goods
Noneletrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
+
106! 6
10^.9
9l!l
97.1
91.3
+ 105.5
Lumber, clay, and glass
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous manufactures. „
Nondurable manufactures:
Textiles, apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
+ 106.2
(79)
+ 107.0
+ 107.2
(56)
-
(38)
(48)
+ 108.7
+ 108.5
+ 1143
o 108.5
- 108.1
o 108.5 +
+
+
9C)!9
+ 100.2
+ 90.9
+ 108.0
+
113 '.3
112.5
+ 113 ".7
- 110.0
+
98.7
97!<5
+ 121.2
+ 100.9
- 120.7
+
-
9l!Z
97.4
89.5
+ 106.7
+
-
111.1 +
110.3 +
-
+
115.4 +
-
105^3
9l!6
99.2
91.7
+
+ 108.5
106.1 - 105.3
(44)
+ 95.4
+ 106.3
109.1
+
95*.9
+ 97.5
- 91.1
+ 109.6
+
96.' 5
+ 98.5
+
92.1
+ 112.2
losis
- piosii
113.1
+ pl!3.2
99^6
99^9
126.1 .- 124.0
- p98!7
- p!21.3
88.5
lll!l 111.0 +
78!8
- 108.0
110.9
+
-
108!7 +
115.4 -
94.7
97.4
91.7
+
«
94.0
85.4
119.3
+
+
+
97.3
89.9
+ 107! 5
+ 99.7
- 89.8
114.4
101.8
+ 115.1
- 101.4
111! 6
- 100.2
+
+
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
- 121.0
- 116.3
+ 122.7
-
10o!3
113 !2
+
- 108.5
97.0
86.7
97.1
89.3
+ 109.0
p96.6
84.1
+ 100.9
+ p!09.5
110.6
(NA)
(NA)
+
95!o
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
112.6
(NA)
(NA)
+
101.7
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
p87.6
- 107.7
+
101.0 +
117.8
101.7
- pll6.8
+ 102.6
+ 123.4
- 115.8
+ 124.5
+
126>!8 - 125.0 + 126.7
+ 123.7
+ 115.0 - 114.8 + 115.0
- 112.7
+ 135.4 - 129.1 - 128.0 + 129.0
+ 127.0
- pl!4.1
- p!25.1
+
+
+ 114.6
+ 100.3
+
- 115.5
+
114-3
- 110.2
- 109.6
- 109.4
+ 110.0
-
- ±22.6
- 92.4
+
113 !4 +
101.0 o
115! 5
Foods and tobacco. . .
Tobacco products
Mining:
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Metal, stone and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
(67)
+
88!2
- 105.2
98!2
110.8
+
94! 9
+ 100.2
+
(56)
«
llj! 8
90.3
+
+
116.2
110.6
-
135!l
95.6
114.1
96.9
:
124 '.7
94.2
115 \l
92.1
-
u.7\3
96.4
+
115! 2
96.6
+
114.1
P98.2
o 109.4 o 109.4
- 109.2 - 108.9
93!5
90.2
+
10G)!1?
89.2
- 113.0
- 114.0
(NA)
- 102.0
- 124.7
o 127.0
(NA)
(NA)
-
112.4
113.4
(NA)
(NA)
28.5
+ 109.5
- 107.6
o 108.9
+ 101.7
(NA)
+ 108.0
(NA)
- 87.0
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
2
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1971
91
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1971
Diffusion index components
March
May
April
June
August
July
September
October
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1 2
(Millions of dollars)
+ r33,l64 + r33,578 - r33,502 + r33,827 - r33,688 +
All retail sales
(74)
(52)
(74)
(74)
(NA)
+
+
+
6,642
2,427
3,743
368
6,878
2,567
3,472
354
641
392 +
710 +
266
632
403
737
263
+
Grocery stores
+
Eating and drinking places
+
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise). . . +
6,548 +
2,339 +
3,462 +
341
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Shoe stores
+
632
384 +
695
262 +
602 +
388 +
677 +
270
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
+
919
466 +
990 +
270 +
868
475
1,024 +
276 +
854
472
1,055
292
+
+
+
+
867
505
1,111
320
926
480
1,135
303
+
+
+
+
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers.
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
+
+
+
+
+
-
5,640
491
2,277
1,104
710
+
+
+
+
5,762
505
2,308
1,097
739
5,910
521
2,433
1,126
734
+
+
+
+
+
+
D58.
All manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and plastic products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
+
+
+
+
5,836
511
2,270
1,120
702
+
+
(30)
(NA)
6,978
2,549
3,593
368
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
571 +
389 +
694
285 +
568
388
667
289
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
936
509
1,186 307
894
480
1,171
306
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
6,813
544
2,515
1,168
755
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
6,950 +
2,614 3,511 +
384
577
409
686
294
6,284
546
2,511
1,169
741
+
+
INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES *
(1967=100)
+
Percent rising of 22 components
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
5,676
495
2,248
1,113
711
+
+
+
+
(NA)
+ P35,155
(87)
6,620 +
2,349 +
3,582 338
+
6,656
2,411
3,562
303
34,655
112.7 +
(73)
113.0 +
(68)
113.5 +
113.8 +
114.5
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
123.4
109.6
120.9
118.2
113.7
116.6
117.9
117.8
116.3
109.7
113.8
112.8
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
124.6
109.7
121.6
118.4
117.2
116.8
118.0
118.3
117.0
109.5
114.1
112.7
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
-
124.9
109.9
121.8
120.1
117.2
117.3
118.2
118.7
117.2
109.4
114.2
112.5
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
o
+
+
126.1
109.8
122.2
120.3
116.4
117.9
118.7
119.3
117.2
109.4
114.4
112.6
+
+
+
+
130.6
110.0
123.3
121.9
+
+
+
+
116.9
118.2
119.3
119.8
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
o
+
109.3
104.5
105.9
109.1
112.5
+
o
+
109.6
104.5
105.3
109.0
114.0
+
+
+
109.9
104.3
107.4
108.7
114.4
114.9
110.9
93.4
101.4
112.3
110.2
104.4
107.4
108.7
114.2
+
+
+
o
114.5
109.6
93.5
99.7
112.2
+
+
+
o
113.5
108.9
94.4
98.6
112.2
+
+
+
+
113.7
107.8
94.5
97.6
112.2
+
+
+
+
o
o
-
+
(86)
(73)
(73)
114.9 (91)
114. 7 (39)
114.5
(25)
117.3
109.5
114.7
112.8
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
134.6
110.2
124.2
125.3
117.1
119.6
119.8
120.3
118.0
109.9
114.9
113.0
o
o
+
+
+
o
134.3
110.2
124.2
125.6
116.5
120.3
119.9
120.2
117.8
109.7
113.8
113.0
o
o
o
o
+
o
131.8
110.2
124.1
125.5
116.3
120.3
119.7
120.2
117.8
109.6
115.2
113.0
+
+
+
+
115.4
112.5
92.7
103.1
113.6
-
o
114.1
112.2
92.4
102.5
113.8
+
o
+
o
110.5 +
104.4 107.2 +
109.7 +
114.2 +
110.6
104.3
107.3
109.8
114.4
114.6
112.2
92.5
103.1
113.8
110.6
104.3
107.3
109.7
114.7
o
+
+
116.0
111.9
92.6
101.9
113.3
o
o
110.6
104.2
106.3
109.5
114.7
o
+
o
o
o
+
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
2
Data on total retail sales are based on a new sample. Component data shown are based on the new sample for July, August,
and September and on the old sample for earlier months.
3
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
4
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
92
NOVEMBER 1971
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
B
Q CONSUMER PRICES
Year
and
month
781. United 133. Canada,
States,
index of
ndex of
consumer
consumer
prices®
prices®
(1967=100)
132. United
Kingdom,
index of
consumer
prices®
(1967=100) (1967=100)
135. West
Germany,
index of
consumer
prices®
136. France,
index of
consumer
prices®
(1967=100) (1967=100)
138. Japan,
index of
consumer
prices®
137. Italy,
index of
consumer
prices®
47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production
(1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)
1969
January
February
March
107
107
108
106
106
107
108
109
109
104
104
105
108
109
109
108
108
109
102
102
103
April
May
June.
109
109
110
108
108
109
110
110
111
105
105
105
110
110
111
110
110
110
103
103
104
July
August
September
110
111
111
110
110
110
110
110
111
105
105
105
111
111
112
113
113
114
104
105
105
112
October
November
December
1970
January
February
March
112
112
113
110
110
111
112
112
113
105
106
107
113
113
113
114
114
114
105
106
106
112
110
110
113
1H
114
in
111
112
112
in
115
107
108
108
114
115
115
116
117
118
107
107
108
April
May
June . . .
115
116
116
112
112
113
117
117
117
108
109
109
116
117
117
119
118
117
July
August
September
117
117
118
113
113
113
118
118
119
109
109
109
118
118
118
October . . . . . .
November
December
1971
January
February
March
118
118
119
113
113
113
120
121
121
109
110
110
119
119
120
113
113
114
123
124
125
April
May
June
120
121
122
115
115
115
July
August
September
122
122
122
116
117
117
October
November
December
123
117
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
23. Canada,
ndex of
ndustrial
production
122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
(1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)
109
110
112
108
108
109
115
115
114
110
110
109
109
109
118
118
117
109
109
109
120
120
118
113
115
109
110
110
121
118
119
107
108
108
115
116
114
109
110
112
125
125
124
108
109
109
108
108
108
115
114
115
n2
108
110
126
124
122
118
118
122
109
109
110
108
108
107
n4
114
113
109
109
112
124
124
125
119
119
120
124
123
124
111
111
112
104
103
105
113
114
114
113
110
112
124
125
126
111
112
113
120
121
121
125
125
125
112
113
113
105
106
106
115
115
116
113
110
109
127
129
130
128
128
129
114
114
115
122
123
123
127
127
127
113
114
114
106
107
107
115
116
116
rill
112
rl!4
128
r!26
130
130
130
130
115
115
(NA)
124
124
(NA)
128
127
r!33
114
115
115
106
105
r!06
rl!7
pl!8
(NA)
112
pl!2
(NA)
132
p!32
(NA)
(NA)
132
(NA)
108
no
no
no
110
in
111
112
no
no
109
111
111
p!06
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 61 and 62.
BCII
NOVEMBER 1971
93
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION-Continued
Year
and
month
1969
January
February
March
121. OECD,1
European
countries,
index of
industrial
production
Q STOCK PRICES
19. United
States,
index of
stock
prices, 500
common
stocks®
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production
(1967=100)
(1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
143. Canada,
index of
stock
prices®
142. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices®
146. France,
index of
stock
prices®
148. Japan, 147. Italy,
index of
index of
stock
stock
prices®
prices®
145. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices®
(1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)
(1967=100)
115
114
116
113
no
114-
111
no
108
114
114
124
126
128
126
in
165
159
153
112
126
136
136
137
138
129
131
132
100
98
100
April
May
June
125
126
128
134
134
136
117
118
119
115
113
116
no
114
120
112
151
143
133
134
142
130
139
145
147
137
142
144
112
114
108
July
August
September
126
127
127
139
138
143
119
119
118
116
114
108
103
102
103
107
106
109
128
128
130
127
133
133
142
148
150
141
139
147
108
112
October
November
December
1970
January
February
March
130
132
134
1^6
145
149
119
119
120
102
101
105
104
105
99
no
114
114
127
129
132
142
140
145
156
164
159
150
156
161
120
121
134
136
136
148
152
154
122
124
124
118
119
120
98
95
96
115
113
153
149
146
152
149
147
167
165
172
116
n6
139
135
131
April
May
June
135
138
134
157
157
163
125
125
123
118
117
116
93
83
82
113
97
94
129
116
113
140
136
132
147
135
129
171
148
149
120
112
106
July
August
September .
135
133
132
164
162
164
124
124
124
118
112
119
82
85
90
93
95
99
115
118
120
136
138
135
127
133
128
150
151
148
103
107
103
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
135
133
134
163
160
164
125
125
125
117
120
118
92
92
98
101
100
104
128
120
121
137
134
135
126
121
n9
145
145
140
101
96
94
Hi
HO
138
164
164
168
127
127
126
117
117
116
102
106
108
108
108
109
123
122
120
136
139
137
125
134
137
145
151
161
91
94
93
April
May
June
140
137
139
165
158
168
127
r!26
r!28
rl!3
113
113
112
111
108
112
108
109
131
146
147
137
141
140
135
138
137
171
172
182
89
85
83
139
p!33
(NA)
169
168
p!72
128
p!25
(M)
rill
p!07
(NA)
108
106
108
109
107
108
157
158
164
Ul
pHO
p!32
135
136
129
190
179
170
83
82
78
106
p!02
100
p98
160
p!55
rp!21
124
pll6
166
P164
F79
p76
July
August
September
October
November
December
122
123
(NA)
pin
n3
in
n3
n5
n6
n6
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 62 and 63.
•'Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
94
NOVEMBER
1971
BCD
APPENDIXES
A. MCD .and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Monthly series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered
Monthly series
Cl
1
C
T/C
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I/C
for
MCD
span
Cl
1
C
MCD
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
*1.
*5.
*6.
8
Average workweek of production workers, mfg
Avg. initial claims, State unemploy. insurance
New orders, durable goods industries
Construction contracts total value
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
0.46
4.86
3.37
6.68
0.42
4.32
3.00
6.41
0.17
2.10
1.26
1.54
2.48
2.06
2.38
4.15
3
3
3
5
0.84
.73
.79
.87
2.25
1.79
1.82
1.56
1.50
1.48
1.61
1.45
10.14 ,
14.33
10.09
8.71
3.81
4.10
3.67
3.15
9.
*10.
*12.
13.
14.
Construction contracts, commercial and indus
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
Liabilities of business failures ®
Jan. '53-June'70.. 9.08
Jan. '53-Jul. '71 .. 5.00
Jan. '53- Apr. '71 . . .85
Jan. '53- Apr. '71 . . 2.50
Jan. '53-Feb. '71.. 22.11
8.94
4.71
.63
2.23
21.50
1.12
1.39
.60
.93
2.20
8.00
3.39
1.05
2.41
9.77
6
4
2
3
6
t1)
.89
.57
.83
C1)
1.56
1.66
2.67
1.82
1.51
1.51
1.53
1.56
1.56
1.47
14.93
8.22
6.44
8.76
10.85
2.91
3.17
4.36
3.14
2.65
*17.
*19
*23.
24.
28.
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
Jan.
Stock prices 500 common stocks ©
Jan.
Industrial materials prices © >
Jan.
New orders, producers' capital goods industries. . . Jan.
.
2
New private housing units started, total
Jan.
'53-Aug. '71..
'53-June '70 . .
'53-June '70 . .
'53-Jul. '71 ..
'59-May '70 . .
.62
2.49
1.39
4.29
7.05
.55
1.74
.98
3.93
6.74
.27
1.59
.88
1.40
1.52
2.06
1.09
1.11
2.80
4.44
3
2
2
3
5
.81
.62
.69
.98
.84
1.94
2.46
2.65
1.85
1.64
1.56
1.63
1.77
1.61
1.53
7.96
9.09
9.95
11.10
7.56
3.40
4.08
3.78
3.06
2.81
*29.
*41.
42.
,46.
*47.
New building permits, private housing
Employees on nona.gr i cultural payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Help-wanted advertising
Industrial production
'53- May '71.. 4.16
'53-Aug. 71 . . .29
'53-Dec. 70 . . .33
'53-Dec. '69 . . 2.55
'53-Aug. 71 . . .88
3.60
.13
.25
1.49
.51
1.73
.25
.20
1.97
.68
2.08
.51
1.25
.76
.74
3
1
2
1
1
.69
.51
.64
.76
.74
1.85
5.57
2.29
3.50
3.64
1.46
1.52
1.58
1.43
1.55
11.00
18.58
14.33
10.15
11.11
3.35
5.57
3.57
3.50
3.64
.40
.58
.80
.91
.29
.25
.50
.77
.28
.52
.60
.45
1.02
.49
.84
1.72
2
1
1
2
.53
.49
.84
.96
2.77
5.97
2.82
2.08
1.50
1.59
1.54
1.56
13.06
31.57
14.87
17.67
4.80
5.97
2.82
3.15
.19
Jan. '53-Oct. ' 7 0 . .
Jan. '53-June 71 .. 1.00
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods ©
Jan. '53-Oct. 70 . . .21
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
.59
Jan. '53-Aug. 71 • •
65. Book value, mfrs.' inventories of finished goods. . . Jan. '53-June 71 • •
.61
.10
.75
.14
.49
.27
.16
.57
.16
.28
.54
.67
1.32
.89
1.73
.51
1
2
1
2
1
.67
.76
.89
.97
.51
4.73
2.54
3.80
2.12
3.75
1.72
1.66
1.64
1.60
1.44
11.21
20.09
8.52
10.62
15.79
4.73
4.00
3.80
3.52
3.75
66. Consumer installment debt
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories. .
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
96. Unfilled orders, durable gonris industries
.81
.10
.79
.13
1
.13
16.31
1.59
30.29
16.31
'53-June 71 . . 1.75
'53-June 71 . . .52
'53-May 71 . . .86
'53-Jul. 71 .. 1.29
1.41
.18
.29
.49
.90
.50
.81
1.12
1.57
.35
.36
.44
2
1
1
1
.83
.35
.36
.44
1.96
7.62
8.15
4.83
1.55
1.48
1.62
1.67
15.79
31.57
20.00
13.06
3.14
7.62
8.15
4.83
.95
.89
.85
.84
.93
.54
.50
.66
.70
.53
.76
.65
.48
.43
.68
.71
.78
1.38
1.-63
.77
1
1
2
2
1
.71
.78
.64
.92
.77
3.87
3.42
2.01
2.18
3.12
1.54
1.66
1.46
1.58
1.71
11.00
9.13
9.95
9.95
7.74
3.87
3.42
4.08
3.01
3.12
.96
.90
.86
.84
.45
.30
.39
.74
.80
2.15
.61
.37
3
1
1
.95
.61
.37
2.01
5.29
7.16
1.68
1.48
1.53
8.42
14.80
17.08
3.95
5.29
7.16
.14
'53-Oct. 70 . . .21
6.22
'59-May 71 .. 6.31
'63-Jan. 71 .. 12.17 12.00
'57-Dec. 70 . . 6.35
6.05
'59-May 71 .. 4.52
4.18
.16
.75
1.25
1.71
1.13
.89
8.27
9.64
3.54
3.71
1
6
6
4
4
.89
C1)
C1)
.90
.98
3.80
1.61
1.41
1.65
1.92
1.64
1.61
1.37
1.52
1.78
8.52
13.45
13.71
7.95
8.71
3.80
3.04
2.12
2.88
3.37
6
6
6
6
2
C1)
t1)
t1)
(X)
.89
1.51
1.47
1.43
1.57
2.72
1.51
1.46
1.40
1.51
1.68
6.65
8.52
9.77
11.10
9.64
2.21
2.15
2.28
2.36
4.14
2
3
1
2
1
1
2.62
.93
1.91
.88
5.07
.56
2.82
.63
.71 3.91
.24 59.00
1.63
11.00
8.46
1.56
1.61 12.53
7.86
1.71
1.50 14.15
1.59 177.00
3.65
3.96
5.07
4.21
3.91
59.00
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
*52. Personal income
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., construction
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-Aug. 71 . .
'53-Dec. '70 . .
'53-Jul. 71 ..
'53-June '70 • •
Jan. '53-July 71 ..
Jan. '53-June 71 ..
Jan. '53-Aug. 71 . .
Jan. '53-Sep. 70 . .
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities ©
813. Marginal employment adjustments
814 Capital investment commitments
816 Profitability
817. Sensitive financial flows
820 5 coincident indicators
Jan. '53-Sep. 70 . .
Jan.
.Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-June 70 . .
'53-Apr. 71 . .
'53-June 70 . .
'53-June 70 . .
'53-June 70 . .
Jan. '53-Apr. 71 . .
Jan. '53-July 71 ..
Jan. '53-July 71 . .
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
58.
502.
506.
508.
512
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods @
Exports, excluding military aid
Export orders, durables except motor vehicles
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
General imports
616. Defense Department obligations, total
621. Defense Department obligations, procurement
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
647. New orders, defense products industries
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities @
July '53-Sep. 70 .. 12.31
Jan. '56-Dec. 70 • • 23.36
Jan. '53-Dec. 70 . .19.35
Jan. '53-Jul. 71 • • 18.22
.30
Jan. '53-Sep. 70 • •
12.06
23.17
19.26
18.10
.24
1.23
2.01
2.37
1.46
.15
9.82
11.53
8.12
12.39
1.54
751
752
781.
782
783
784.
.59
Jan. '53- May 71 ..
Jan. '53-May 71 .. 1.15
.23
Jan. '53-Oct. ' 7 0 . .
.39
Jan. '53-May 71 ..
.21
Jan. '56-May71 ..
Jan. '56-Oct. 70 . . .31
.48
1.02
.11
.26
.12
.07
.32
.48
.20
.25
.17
.31
1.50
2.13
.56
1.04
.71
.24
Wholesale prices processed foods and feeds
Wholesale prices farm products
Consumer prices, all items ©
Consumer prices food
Consumer prices commodities less foods
Consumer prices, services ©
See footnot-es and definitions of measures at end of part 1.
95
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered
Cl
Jan. '53-June'71..
Jan. '53-June'71..
Jan. '53-Jul. '71 ..
Jan. '53-June'70..
0.92
1.84
1.07
.38
0.81
1.59
.80
.35
0.41
.83
.72
.17
Jan. '60-Aug. 71..
.34
.30
OECD European countries, industrial production . . Jan. '53-May 71 . . .90
United Kingdom industrial production
Jan. '53-May 71 . . 1.08
Jan. '53-May 71 . . 1.00
Canada industrial production
West Germany industrial production
Jan. '53-June71.. 1.30Jan. '53-May 71 . .1.67
France industrial production
Monthly series
1
C
I/C
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I/C
for
MCD
span
Cl
1
C
2.80
2.19
2.88
3.03
1.59
1.69
1.52
1.57
8.50
11.63
9.65
9.95
4.87
3.98
4.70
6.27
MCD
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
851.
852.
853.
856.
859.
Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods .
Ratio, production of bus. equip, to consumer goods.
Real avg. hourly earnings, production workers, mfg.
Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers
1.94
1.91
1.10
2.05
3
3
2
3
0.72
.76
.57
.78
.14
2.11
3
.74
2.11
1.70
9.93
3.61
.90
1.04
.97
1.21
1.68
.55
.37
.51
.65
.62
1.64
2.81
1.91
1.87
2.71
2
3
2
2
4
.87
.98
.91
.94
.78
4.58
2.62
3.28
2.95
3.39
1.63
1.51
1.55
1.55
1.58
24.44
9.57
14.67
22.10
13.56
7.30
4.84
5.92
5.50
7.30
1.60
1.71
.47
.27
.32
1.47
1.49
.48
.32
.36
.73
1.20
.30
.21
.23
2.01
1.24
1.61
1.52
1.60
3
2
2
2
3
.75
.59
.96
.80
.69
2.86
4.70
6.68
9.95
8.36
1.69
1.52
1.72
1.90
1.94
22.00
14.73
15.92
13.06
13.06
7.79
9.57
7.10
14.86
11.50
.51
'53-May 70 • •
.32
'53-Apr. 70 • •
.81
'53-June 70 . .
'53-June 70 - - 3.18
'53-June 70 • • 2.78
.43
.34
.73
2.41
2.19
.40
.30
.41
1.81
1.53
1.07
1.13
1.81
1.33
1.43
2
2
3
2
2
.55
.61
.68
.84
.94
8.32
18.82
3.17
2.75
3.03
1.56
1.77
1.61
1.79
1.77
10.40
8.28
12.29
8.36
9.95
9.00
22.89
6.47
3.71
3.92
'53-June
'53-June
'53-June
'53-June
2.03
3.30
2.95
2.45
2.27
1.88
1.73
2.24
.90
1.75
1.71
1.09
1
3
3
2
.90
.68
.78
.67
3.54
2.43
2.40
3.12
1.80
1.70
1.87
1.67
7.74
7.21
8.36
7.21
3.54
4.22
4.81
4.62
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121.
122
123
125
126
127. Italy, industrial production
128 Japan industrial production
132 United Kingdom consumer prices(u)- •
135 West Germany consumer prices(u)
136
137.
138
142
143
France consumer prices(u)
Italy, consumer prices ©
Japan consumer prices@)
United Kingdom stock prices(u)
Canada stock prices @
145
146
147
148
West Germany stock prices @
France stock prices®
Italy stock prices(u). .
Japan stock prices(u)
..
Jan. '53-May 71 • •
Jan. '53-June 71 ••
Jan. '53-April70-.
Jan. '53-June 70 ••
Jan. '53-June 70 • •
Jan.
Jan.
. . . Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
70 . . 3.23
70 . .3.97
70 . . 3.63
70 .. 3.57
*Series included in the 1966 NBER 'short list" of 26 indicators.
when MCD is"6."
Measures are "based on unadjusted data.
1
Not shown
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business
Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper
57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957
(reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957).
"Cl" is the average month-to-month percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
(i.e., the series after adjustment for measurable seasonal,
trading-day, and holiday variations).
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by
dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-month
spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar.,
Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span. MCD is the shortest span in months for which the
96
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
and remains so.
Thus, it indicates the point at which
fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series
with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
adjusted series. It is shown for 1-month spans and_for spans
of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", no I/C ratio is
shown for the MCD period.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C,
and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is an unweighted
moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD)
of the seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1month intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of
CI is 1.75 for the series on average weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance (series 5). This indicates
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on
the average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a
random series. The ADR measures shown in Jhe next two
columns, ~L47 for I and 12.00 for C, suggest thatf the^easonally
SHOWN IN PART 1—Continued
adjusted series has been successfully separated into an
essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom)
component.
Finally, ADR is 4.13 for the MCD moving
average. This indicates that a 3-month moving average of
the seasonally adjusted series (3 months being the MCD
span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4
months. The increase in the ADR from 1.75 for CI to 4.13
for the MCD moving average indicates that, for this series,
month-to-month changes in the MCD moving average usually
reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series,
whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Monthly Series: Average Actual Changes
Period
covered
Monthly series
Unit of
measure
T
CI
C
f/c
MCD
I/C
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
1
C
MCD
9.65
9.95
3.37
5.31
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
3.
20.
21.
25.
Jan. '53-Jul. 71 . Per 100
employees .
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Jan. '53-June '70. ..do
Change in book value, manufacturers'
Jan. '53-June '71. Ann. rate,
inventories of materials, supplies.
bil.dol....
Avg. wkly. overtime hrs., prod, workers, mfg. Jan. '56-Aug. '71. Hours ... .
Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods Indus. . Jan. '53-June '71. Bil.dol
26. Buying policy, production materials, commitJan. '53-Oct. '70 . Pet. reporting
Jan. '53-June '71. Ann. rate,
bil.dol....
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories .
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
Jan. '53-Feb. '71.
Jan. '55-Dec. '70.
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
40.
*43
*44.
45.
Jan. '53-Oct. '70. Pet. reporting
Jan. '53-Dec. '70. Percent
Jan. '55-Mar. '71 • ... do
Jan. '53-Mar. '71 . ... do
Jan. '53-Dec. '70- ... do
Jan. '53-Oct. '70 . ...do
Unemployment rate, married males
Unemployment rate total
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Average weekly insured unemploy. rate
Jan. '53-Nov. '70.
93. Free reserves©
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits
at comm. banks (M2)
103. Change in money sup. plus time dep. at
banks and nonbank inst. (M3)
*113. Change in consumer installment debt
114. Treasury bill rate@
115. Treasury bond yields ©
116. Corporate bond yields @
118. Mortgage yields, residential ©
Pet. reporting
Ann. rate,
bil.dol....
Jan. '53-June '70.
Jan. '53-May '71.
Ann. rate,
percent
... do
Ann. rate,
bil.dol....
Jan. '53-Sep. '70. ...do
'53-Oct. '70.
'53-Oct. '70.
'53-Oct. '70.
'53-Oct. '70.
'53-Oct. '70.
0.17
.14
0.05
.06
3.08
2.33
4
3
.81 2.02
.82 2.32
1.52
1.51
1.46
.09
.51
1.44
.08
.49
.19
.04
.13
7.59
1.97
3.80
6
3
5
t 1 ) 1.61
.65 3.53
.90 1.79
1.52
1.52
1.56
10.52 2.81
11.69 6.85
7.66 2.99
5.71
5.57
1.06
5.23
6
t1)
1.81
1.65
11.21
4.62
4.05
4.00
.54
7.40;
6
C1)
1.41
1.39
11.05
2.63
3.58
2.94
1.60
3
.73
2.82
1.79
8.35
4.57
1.27
1.11
.43
2.60
3
.89
1.87
1.57
11.24
3.10
5.12'
.08
.15
.17
.07
.16
4.84
.07
.12
.14
.06
.09
1.54
.02
.08
.10
.05
.12
3.15
3.79
1.56
1.43
1.22
.74
4
5
2
2
2
1
.98
.92
.84
.76
.62
.74
2.17
2.17
3.53
2.60
4.67
4.63
1.69
1.87
1.47
1.47
1.60
1.75
7.61
7.41
10.78
9.91
6.72
8.19
4.57
4.59
4.49
3.95
6.29
4.63
2.89
74.67
.48
V8.15
6.06
1.55
6
2
C1)
.93
1.61
2.05
1.48
1.58
6.69
9.95
2.82
3.20
2.46
2.45
.53
4.63
5
.97
1.54
1.50
6.47
2.16
1.76
1.68
.66
2.56
3
.92
1.73
1.60
9.44
3.61
2.57
.95
2.52
.87
.50
.33
5.09
2.66
6
3
C1)
.93
1.69
1.71
1,50
1.56
6.50
11.78
3.18
3.13
.11
.04
.06
.04
.11
1.02
1.59
1.65
1.88
6.61
2
3
3
3
6
.66 2.63
.74 2.66
.71 2.39
.83 2.57
C 1 ) 4.63
1.82
1.90
1.69
1.85
2.37
6.66
8.19
10.65
8.88
6.09
3.79
4.69
3.98
4.22
6.12
19.3
5.2_5
6
C1)
1.43
6.96
2.63
Ann. rate,
percent. . . . 2.89
94.10
Mil.dol
Feb. '64-Mar '71.
Aug. '59-Jun. '71.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
0.18
.15
Percent
...do
...do
...do
...do
.16
.08
.12
.10
.68
.11
.06
.11
.08
.73
1.83
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
500. Merchandise trade balance
Jan.'58-May'71 . Mil.dol
104.3
101.3
1.54
^•Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
2
when MCD is "6."
Bimonthly series; average changes, MCD, and average durations of run are for "bimonthly spans.
1
Not shown
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This
method is used for series with zero or negative data and for
other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
expressed in percent.
Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month change in the
seasonally adjusted series.
This average is computed
without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of
measure as the series itself.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part 1.
97
APPENDIXES
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Cl
1
C
I/C
I/C
for
QCD
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
QCD
Cl
1
C
7.67
1.30
9.86
3.63
1.30
6.90
17.25
1.33
17.25
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
200
205
210
215
217.
220.
222.
GNP in current dol lars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
National income current dollars
Personal income, current dollars
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
IQ '53-IVQ 70...
IQ '53-IVQ 70...
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
1.59
1.18
.61
1.33
1.00
1.66
1.5-4
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
1.47
.33
1.02
.37
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods,
except automobiles
234 Personal consumption expend automobiles
236. Personal consumption expend., nondurable goods .
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services
IQ '53-UQ 70. . . .
3.05
10 '53-110 70....
IQ '53-1 IQ 70....
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
240 Gross private domestic investment, total
241 Total nonresidential fixed investment
IQ'53-IIQ 70. ...
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
243. Fixed investment, producers' durable equipment . . IQ'53-IIQ 70....
244 Fixed investment residential structures
IQ'53-IIQ70....
252 Exports of goods and services
253 Imports of goods and services
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
262. Federal Gov. purchases of goods and services . . . IQ'53-IIQ 70....
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
266. State and local gov. purchases, goods and services IQ'53-IIQ 70....
OCfl
Hnv/ nurrh^^p^ of onnri^ and ^prvirp^ tfitsl
270
274
Final sales durable goods
Final sales nondurable goods
282 Proprietors' income
286. Corp. profits and inventory valuation adjustment. .
288 Net interest
290 Gross saving private and government
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory
valuation adjustment
IQ'53-IIQ
IQ '53-110
IQ'53-IIQ
IQ'53-IIQ
IQ'53-IIQ
IQ'53-IIQ
70....
70....
70....
70....
70....
70--..
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
IQ'53-IIQ 70.- • •
IQ'53-IIQ 7 0 . . - .
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
1.17
.82
2.09
6.00
1.23
1.76
4.56
2.56
.19
.29
.22
1
1
1
.19
.29
.22
.39
1
.23
1
.37
2.32
1.84
1.00
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
IQ'53-IVQ70...
1.49
.19
.28
. .18
.23
.35
.21
.15
.27
.29
.24
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
IQ '53-11070....
IQ '53-IVQ 70...
1.07
1
l
l
1
1
1
1
1.26
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, constant dollars ....
Per capita disposable personal income, current dol.
Per capita disposable personal income, constant
dollars
230. Total personal consumption expenditures, current
dollars
231. Total personal consumption expenditures, constant
dollars
,.
224.
225.
226.
227.
.19
.28
.18
.23
.35
.21
.15
.30
.30
.11
.28
.31
.33
.22
.28
1.47
.85
3.62
.44
.20
2.08
.83
1.54
1.07
.60
6.45
1.31
4.44
1.27
7.10
4.44
7.67
1.35
13.80
1.25
11.50
13.80
13.80
13.80
1.35
69.00
13.80
6.27
1.35
9.86
6.27
6.45
1.29
10.14
6.45
.39
4.44
1.37
7.10
4.44
.23
9.86
1.25
69.00
9.86
1
.37
5.31
1.21
7.67
5.31
.64
1
.64
2.76
1.19
4.60
2.76
.46
.90
.37
.12
1
1
1
1
.46
.90
.37
.12
4.31
1.28
6.90
4.31
2.38
1.25
3.45
2.38
6.27
69.00
1.30
1.25
34.50
69.00
69.00
.62
.35
.78
.43
.36
1
1
1
1
1
.62
.35
.78
.43
.36
.91
.79
.31
.48
1
1
1
1
.91
.79
.31
.48
.45
.19
1
1
.45
.19
3.20
.46
.40
.14
.62
.38
.66
1
1
l
1
1
1
.46
.40
.14
.62
.38
.66
.23
.63
1
1
2
.23
.63
.50
.85
.19
1
1
.85
.19
.68
.75
.21
.37
1
1
1
1
.68
.75
.21
.37
.46
.18
.93
.19
.28
1
1
1
1
1
.46
.18
.93
.19
.28
.44
.48
.17
1
1
1
2
1
.44
.48
.17
.56
.82
.87
1.57
1.51
1.44
1.13
.73
1.43
.98
4.01
1.19
1.73
3.37
2.38
2.74
1.65
2.13
1.15
2.67
3.44
1.12
3.10
3.79
2.40
2.63
3.18
1.95
1.86
2.37
1.83
2.19
2.35
2.19
1.30
1.68
1.21
.99
4.10
3.85
.57
.92
.83
.44
.87
.49
.24
.61
.35
2.10
.89
3.63
34.50
10.14
3.13
2.22
7.67
1.91
1.82
2.34
1.88
1.24
1.64
.97
.91
4.67
2.28
3.81
3.61
8.87
6.87
4.90
8.98
5.35
.34
6.25
1.82
8.37
4.85
4.31
2.79
6.35
3.74
1.78
1.40
6.45
7.67
6.27
2.56
1.41
4.31
2.56
4.60
1.33
6.27
4.60
2.30
1.23
4.06
2.30
2.88
1.23
4.31
2.88
3.45
1.33
6.27
3.45
2.76
1.35
5.31
2.76
2.76
5.75
1.30
1.28
6.27
13.80
2.76
5.75
2.88
1.28
4.31
2.88
2.65
1.23
4.60
2.65
23.00
1.28
23.00
23.00
3.29
1.30
7.67
3.29
6.27
9.86
1.25
17.25
9.86
5.75
6.27
9.86
2.46
1.30
1.35
9.86
1.35
9.86
2.88
1.21
6.27
3.63
23.00
1.28
23.00
23.00
3.14
1.21
6.27
3.14
1.53
1.30
4.06
2.34
2.16
1.28
3.14
23.00
1.30
23.00
2.61
1.26
1.21
3.32
4.06
2.61
2.65
13.80
1.21
13.80
13.80
3.94
1.16
6.09
3.94
4.06
1.28
1.28
5.31
4.06
1.22
6.64
3.74
3.84
2.54
7.67
1.30
9.86
7.67
3.63
1.30
6.90
3.63
2.46
2.88
2.16
23.00
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
*16
57
Corporate profits after taxes
Final sales
IQ'53-IIQ 71....
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
IQ '53-IVQ '69 ...
1.48
2.90
.30
.97
1.46
2.65
2.65
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing'.
*205
GNP in 1958 dollars
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
IQ'53-IIQ 71....
IQ '53-IVQ 70 . . .
IQ'53-IIQ 7 0 - . . .
IQ'53-IIQ 70....
1.18
.36
.86
6.36
.30
.30
2.88
1.12
.91
4.97
9.77
1.59
.79
4.79
6.82
1.54
1.07
3.84
2.54
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
61a.
410
412.
430a
435.
Business expend., new plant and equipment
Manufacturers' sales total value
Manufacturers' inventories, total book value
New car purchases by households
Index of consumer sentiment
IQ'57-IVQ'69 ...
IQ'57-IIIQ71 ...
IQ'57-IIIQ71 ...
IQ'59-IVQ70 ...
IIQ'57-IIIQ'68-"
See definitions of measures at end of part 1.
98
2.21
1.46
.83
.25
2.55
1.72
1.42
7.79
5.39
4.41
2.73
1.45
1.77
1.22
.82
3.40
1.16
5.67
3.40
4.83
1.38
7.25
4.83
8.29
1.29
11.60
8.29
1.96
1.31
3.13
2.30
2.25
1.13
3.46
2.25
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered
Quarterly series
T
Cl
I/C
C
I/C
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
QCD
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
252.
253.
264.
530
532.
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services
National defense purchases
Liquid liabilities to all foreigners
Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official agencies
IQ'6(HIQ70....
IQ'6(HIQ'70....
IQ '53-IIQ 70....
IQ '60-IQ 70 ....
3.79
3.18
2.19
2.62
2.40
1.86
.83
1.06
2.63
2.37
1.82
2.09
IQWQ'70....
4.38
2.85
2.84
U S official reserve assets
Merchandise exports adjusted
Merchandise imports adjusted
Investment income, military sales, and other
services exports
541. Foreign investment income, military expenditures,
and other services imports
IQ '60-IQ '70....
IQ '60-IQ '70 ....
IQ '60-IQ '70 ....
2.19
4.59
4.40
1.14
3.39
2.60
IQ '60-IQ '70 ....
3.49
IQ '60-IQ 70 ....
542
543
544
545
546
Income on U S investments abroad
Income on foreign investments in U S
Receipts from foreign travelers in U.S
Payments by U S travelers abroad
Mi litary sales to foreigners
IQ
IQ
IQ
IQ
IQ
547.
548.
549.
601.
602.
U S military expenditures abroad
IQ
Receipts from transportation and other services. . . IQ
Payments for transportation and other services . . .IQ
Fed. receipts, nat'l. income and product accts. . . . IQ
Fed. expend., nat'l. income ai-d product accts. . . . IQ
534
536
537
540.
1
1
1
1
.91
.79
.45
.51
2.76
2.76
2.65
2.35
1.35
1.30
1.23
1.29
5.31
6.27
4.60
2.86
2.76
2.76
2.65
2.35
1.00
2
.33
2.11
1.14
3.08
2.60
1.80
2.58
3.16
.63
1.31
.82
1
2
1
.63
.62
.82
2.86
1.74
3.08
1.29
1.38
1.29
3.64
3.64
6.67
2.86
3.55
3.08
2.14
2.60
.82
1
.82
1.90
1.33
8.00
1.90
2.57
1.34
2.07
.65
1
.65
2.50
1.21
6.67
2.50
70... •
70....
70....
70....
70....
5.64
4.98
3.32
3.88
18.40
3.72
1.89
1.73
2.58
14.24
3.72
4.77
2.69
2.61
9.02
1.00
.40
.64
.99
1.58
2
1
1
1
2
.40
.40
.64
.99
.68
1.90
5.00
3.08
2.35
1.43
1.18
1.18
1.38
1.21
1.25
3.64
6.67
4.44
3.64
2.22
3.00
5.00
3.08
2.35
2.17
'60-IQ 70....
'60-IQ 70....
'60-IQ 70....
'53-1 IQ 70-...
'53-IIQ 70
3.56
2.60
3.34
2.53
2.15
2.16
1.69
2.42
.90
.90
2.51
1.98
1.84
2.33
1.90
.86
.85
1.31
.38
.47
1
1
2
1
1
.86
.85
.58
.38
.47
2.11
3.08
1.82
3.63
4.60
1.29
3.64
1.25 13.33
1.21 6.67
1.30
6.27
1.25
6.27
2.11
3.08
2.79
3.63
4.60
IQ'53-IIQ70 ...
IQ '53-IIQ 71 ...
8.48
.85
6.81
.38
4.67
.69
1.46
.54
2
1
54
.54
1.47
3.17
1.30
1.28
3.24
3.17
'60-IQ
'60-IQ
'60-IQ
'60-IQ
'60-IQ
.91
.79
.45
.51
4
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal
3.63
6.64
*Series included in the 19bb NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators,
by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted
from Journal of Business, October 1957).
and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated
by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with
a QCD greater than "2" are shown as "3"
"CP is the average quarter-to-quarter percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
or, if the series contains no measurable seasonal, in the
unadjusted series.
"T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally ad justed
series. It is shown for 1-quarter spans and for spans of
the period of QCD. When QCD is "3", no I/C ratio is shown for
the QCD period.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained
by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"QCD" (quarters for cyclical dominance) provides an
estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a quarterly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
QCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclica 1 component over 1-quarter
spans (1st quarter-2d quarter, 2d quarter-3d quarter, etc.),
2-quarter spans (1st quarter-3d quarter, 2d quarter-4th
quarter, etc.), up to 4-quarter spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span. QCD is the shortest span in quarters for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
quarterly changes in the same direction in any series of
observations. When there is no change between 2 quarters, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and
the QCD curve. The QCD curve is an unweighted moving
average (with the number of terms equal to QCD) of the
seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1quarter intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-quarter
intervals in a moving average (QCD) of a random series, the
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of Cl is
1.47 for the series on the ratio of personal saving to disposable
personal income (series 854). This indicates that 1-quarter
99
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART I—Continued
changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average,
reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series.
The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.30 for I
and 3.63 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has
been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is
3.24 for the QCD moving average. This indicates that a
2-quarter moving average of the seasonally adjusted series
(2 quarters being the QCD span) reverses direction, on the
average, about every 3 quarters. The increase in the ADR
from 1.47 for CI to 3.24 for the QCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, quarter-to-quarter changes in the QCD
moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend
movements of the series, whereas the quarter-to-quarter
changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Quarterly Series: Average Actual Changes
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Unit of
measure
CI
1
C
r/c
QCD
I/C
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
1
C
QCD
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
IQ'53-IIQ70... ...do
Net exports of goods and services
Change in business inventories, durable goods. IQ '53-IIQ '70 ... ... do
Change in bus. inventories, nondurable goods . IQ '53-IIQ 70... ...do
IQ '53-IIQ 70... ...do
Government surplus or deficit total
245 Change in business inventories total .......
250
271.
275.
298
IQ'53-IIQ'70...
2.76
.84
2.34
1.42
2.89
1.82
.48
1.48
1.17
1.44
1.60 1.14
.78
.61
1.38 1.08
.56 2.09
.59
2.46
2
1
2
2
1
.53
.78
.52
.89
.59
1.68
2.46
1.60
1.53
3.00
1.35
1.33
1.33
1.30
1.38
3.63
3.83
2.76
2.38
4.06
2.72
2.46
2.72
2.12
3.00
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, mfg.i. .
22. Ratio of profits to income originating,
corporate all industries
*67 Bank rates on short-term bus loans©
245 Change in business inventories total
IQ'53-IIIQ70...
Cents
.48
.28
.32
.87
1
.87
2.59
1.32
3.33
2.59
IQ '53-IIQ 70...
IQ'53-1Q71....
IQ '53-IIQ '70,..
Percent ....
...do
Ann. rate,
bil. dol....
.46
.16
.31
.09
.33
.14
.95
.63
1
1
.95
.63
2.56
2.57
1.25
1.44
5.31
4.00
2.56
2.57
2.76
1.82
1.60
1.14
2
.53
1.68
1.35
3.63
2.72
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
U.S. Balance of Payments:
250
515.
517
519.
Balance on goods and services
Balance on goods, services, and remittances .
Balance on current account
Balance on current account and long term
capital
522 Official reserve transactions balance
564 Foreign purchases of U S securities
565 U S purchases of foreign securities
570. Government grants and capital transactions,
IQ'66-IIQ71...
IQ'66-IIQ71...
IQ'66-IIQ71...
Mil. dol
... do
... do
269.0
267.0
288.0
201.0
211.5
235.8
151.9
139.4
134.9
1.32
1.52
1.75
2
2
2
.52 1.62
.56 1.62
.61 1.62
1.17
1.17
1.31
3.00
3.00
3.00
2.22
2.22
2.22
IQ'66-IIQ71...
IQ'66-IIQ71...
IQ '66-IIQ 71...
IQWIQ70...
|Q'60-HQ70...
IQ'60-IIQ70...
IQ'60-IIQ70...
... do
... do
... do
...do
...do
...do
...do
765.2
800.3
1,239.0
79.8
239.4
181.1
133.4
598.8
473.8
743.1
65.7
190.4
139.0
114.0
349.4
494.5
776.1
38.0
87.7
105.2
75.2
1.71
.96
.96
1.73
2.17
1.32
1.52
2
1
1
3
3
2
2
.90
.96
.96
1
t 1)
.67
.45
1.75
2.10
1.75
1.46
1.52
1.71
1.32
1.31
1.50
1.31
1.21
1.41
1.32
1.17
3.00
3.50
2.10
1.86
2.56
2.73
2.73
1.82
2.10
1.75
2.00
2.44
2.11
2.35
...do
309.8
...do
327.2
Ann. rate,
bil. dol.... 2.96
243.5
244.4
143.6
163.6
1.70
1.49
2
2
.67
.76
1.52
1.46
1.28
1.32
2.16
2.05
2.35
1.82
1.55
2.32
.67
1
.67
2.38
1.35
4.06
2.38
1.53
0.68
.15
3.69
1.31
.16
.42
.52
.89
1
1
1
.42
.52
.89
3.14
3.48
2.03
1.33
1.33
1.31
5.31
4.06
2.95
3.14
3.48
2.03
IQ'60-IIQ70...
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net. . .IQ'60-IIQ 70...
600. Fed. balance, nat'l. income and product accts. IQ '53-IIQ 70...
C)
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
IQ '53-IIQ 70...
IQ '53-IIQ 71...
IQ'56-IVQ70 ..
...do
Percent
...do
4.37
1.61
.24
* Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list' of 26 indicators-.
when QCD is "3".
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
shown
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This
method is used for series with zero or negative data and for
other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
expressed in percent.
Thus, "CI" is the average quarter-to-quarter change in the
seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without
regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure
as the series itself.
100
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part 1.
B. Current Adjustment Factors
197 1
Series
5. Average weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance
13 New business incorporations
1
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of
sales mfg2
33. Net change in mortgage debt held
by financial institutions and life
•
i •?
37. Purchased materials, percent of
companies reporting higher
inventories
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over,
total installment loans ^
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
Jan.
Feb.
149.8
114.4
104.6
94.1
Nov.
Dec.
July
93.1
92.6
79.4
81.7
122.4
84.5
71.6
79.8
97.4
132.8
110.9
107.1
98.9
106.4
99.3
94.3
97.7
95.4
85.7
102.8
-332
-404
-142
99.9
101.0
110.2
106.4
-6
104.9
-90
+371
105.8
107,9
+11
104.4
100.1
100.1
103.1
105.1
108.2
98.7
97.7
100.5
97.8
83.7
89.3
93.5
90.6
86.9
77.0
84.7
84.5
625. Military contract awards in U.S. . . . 88.3
-14
D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB) 5 ...
86.7
84.5
79.5
+12
+213
+110
+66
-43
+231
99.9
93.2
86.4
94.7
90.8
95.8
98.9
91.3
93.1
102.9
96.4
103.4
99.8
616. Defense Department obligations,
total
621. Defense Department obligations,
procurement
Oct.
June
99.2
508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery.
Sept.
May
97.4
100.3
Aug.
Apr.
Mar.
99.7
99.2
98.5
92.0
98.9
143.7
102.6
99.9
83.0
194.0
58.7
84.2
173.2
104.1
-8
100.7
101.4
99.6
112.9
99.3
100.3
101.0
94.1
101.6
115.8
106.0
86.4
90.9
86.6
153.5
112.8
83.8
95.0
93.7
118.4
112.1
+11
77.3
98.2
NOTE: These series are not published by the source agency in seasonafly adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census
Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
•'•Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to
rounding.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census
Method II seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series. Factors are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.).
5
l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed in the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
101
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
TMs appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol @ (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Year
IQ
II Q
Quarterly
III Q
IV Q
15. PROFITS (AFTER TAXES) PER DOLLAR OF SALES i ALL MFG. CORP. 1
(CENTS)
1945.....
1946
1947
1948
1949
...
...
6.7
6.5
5.6
...
...
6.3
6.4
4.7
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
5.6
5.7
4.3
4.4
4.3
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
...
Annual
AVERAGE
Year
IQ
II Q
III Q
Annual
IV Q
67. BANK RATES ON SHORT-TERM BUSINESS LOANSi 35 CITIES2
(PERCENT)
®
AVERAGE
5.8
6.3
5.5
...
...
5.7
6.2
5.5
...
...
6.1
6.4
5.3
1945. ....
1946
1947
1948
1949
2.30
2.10
2.10
2.40
2.70
2.30
2.00
2.10
2.47
2.74
2.30
2.00
2.10
2.60
2.63
2.00
2.10
2.10
2.64
2.65
2.22
2.05
2.10
2.53
2.68
6.7
5.1
4.1
4.3
4.6
6.9
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
6.3
4*4
4.4
4.0
4.7
6.4
4.8
4.3
4.3
4.5
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
2.60
3.02
3.45
3.54
3.72
2.68
3.07
3.51
3.73
3.60
2.63
3.06
3.49
3.74
3.56
2.84
3.27
3.51
3.76
3.55
2.69
3.10
3.49
3.69
3.61
5.2
5.4
5.3
3.6
5.0
5.4
5.4
4.9
3.7
5.3
5.5
5.0
4.7
4.4
4.6
5.6
5.1
4.3
4.8
4.4
5.4
5.2
4.8
4.1
4*8
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
3.54
3.93
4.38
4.49
4.51
3.56
4.14
4.40
4.17
4.87
3.77
4.35
4.83
4.21
5.27
3.93
4.38
4.85
4.50
5.36
3.70
4.20
4.62
4.34
5.00
1960
1961.....
1962
1963
1964
5.0
3.8
4.6
4.4
5.1
4.4
4.2
4.4
4.7
5.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.7
5.3
3.9
4.7
4.7
5.0
5.3
4.4
4.3
4.6
4.7
5.2
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
5.34
4.97
4.98
5.00
4.99
5.35
4.97
5.01
5.01
4.99
4.97
4.99
4.99
5.01
4.98
4.99
4.96
5.02
5.00
5.00
5.16
4.97
5.00
5.00
4.99
1965.....
1966.....
1967.*...
1968.,...
1969
5.6
5.8
5.0
5.1
5.0
5.5
5.7
5.0
5.0
4.9
5.6
5.6
4.9
5.1
4.8
5.6
5.4
5.1
5.1
4.5
5.6
5.6
5.0
5.1
4.8
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
4.97
5.55
6.13
6.36
7.32
4.99
5.82
5.95
6.84
7.86
5.00
6.30
5.95
6.89
8.82
5.27
6.31
5.96
6.61
8.83
5.06
6.00
6.00
6.68
8.21
1970
1971.....
1970
1971
858. INDEX OF OUTPUT PER MAN-HOURi TOTAL PRIVATE NONFARM 3
(1967=100)
110. TOTAL FUNDS RAISED BY PRIVATE NONFINANCIAL BORROWERS
IN CREDIT MARKETS
(ANNUAL RATE* MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
AVERAGE
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
...
...
55.7
58.0
60.2
...
...
57.3
58.7
60.8
...
...
57.3
59.1
62.1
...
...
57.9
59.5
61.4
...
...
57.0
58.8
61.1
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
64.0
65.1
67.0
68.3
69.3
64.5
65.5
66.6
68.9
70.0
65.6
67.3
66.6
69.2
71.0
65.9
67.4
67.5
69.1
71.5
65.0
66.3
66.9
68.9
70.4
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
73.0
72.6
74.4
74.7
78.8
73.7
73.1
74.5
76.2
79.6
74.1
73.2
75.2
77.4
79.0
73.5
73.7
75.3
78.4
79.8
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
80.8
80.2
85.1
88.0
91.7
80.2
82.4
85.5
88.3
92.3
79.9
83.7
86.8
89.6
93.0
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
93.6
98.0
98.8
101.9
103.1
94.3
98.3
99.9
102.9
102.8
95.6
98.2
100.7
103.2
102.7
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1950
1951.....
1952
1953
1954
...
...
25 080
26 840
20 212
...
...
24 824
24 324
22 776
...
...
26 788
21 428
27 120
...
...
30 456
18 372
29 284
...
...
26 787
22 741
24 848
73.6
73.2
74.8
76.7
79.3
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
37
38
36
28
42
708
732
300
284
328
38
35
36
26
51
240
204
404
348
772
39
33
30
32
45
292
824
636
032
860
40
34
28
41
36
600
572
192
748
932
38
35
32
32
44
960
583
883
103
223
80.2
84.4
88.4
90.4
92.4
80.3
82.7
86.4
89*1
92.4
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
47
31
46
49
56
204
108
800
516
380
39
39
47
55
60
980
384
040
804
680
35
41
45
52
61
124
632
240
296
460
33
46
49
57
63
664
352
204
172
364
38
39
47
53
60
993
619
071
697
471
96.8
99.2
100.7
103.5
102.4
95.1
98.4
100.0
102.9
102.8
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
70
74
64
73
97
968
500
556
604
888
66
80
66
72
103
008
780
544
964
028
68
57
71
89
89
708
064
312
596
148
68
47
79
97
85
940
428
588
720
656
68
64
70
83
93
656
943
500
471
930
1970
1971
1970
1971
850. RATIOt OUTPUT TO CAPACITY* MANUFACTURING 4
(PERCENT
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
94.4
86.4
...
...
...
93.3
82.3
...
...
...
92.7
82.1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
83.6
98.1
93.0
98.0
85.4
90.1
96.9
90.2
98.0
83.7
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
87.8
90.0
88.0
74.3
81.2
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
857. VACANCY RATE' IN TOTAL RENTAL HOUSING
(PERCENT)
AVERAGE
...
...
...
AVERAGE
90.4
79.9
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
96.7
93.3
90.8
96.2
83.0
97.4
92.3
97.2
89.6
84.4
91.9
95.1
92.8
95.5
84.1
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
90.5
88.8
85.6
72.5
84.4
90.4
86.1
84.6
75.3
80.3
91.3
88.1
79.8
78.1
79.8
90.0
88.2
84.5
75. 1
81.4
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
...
5.6
4.8
5.7
6.1
...
5.4
4.9
6.0
6.7
...
5.8
5.2
5.8
6.6
...
5.3
5.3
6.0
6.4
...
5.5
5.0
5.9
6.4
84.1
74.2
81.3
81.9
84.2
81.2
76.7
81.4
83.3
85.4
79.0
78.7
81.4
83.1
86.0
76.2
80.8
81.4
83.8
86.3
80.1
77.6
81.4
83.0
85.5
1960
1961
1962
1963.....
1964. ....
7.2
8.0
7.7
7.2
7.3
7.3
8.1
7.4
7.5
7.4
7.6
7.9
7.3
7.6
7.7
7.6
7.7
7.4
7.5
7.5
7.4
7.9
7.4
7.4
7.5
88.3
91.4
88.9
87.9
87.7
88.5
92.3
87.7
88.1
87.1
89.3
92.3
87.3
87.6
86.9
89.7
91.6
87.7
87.2
84.3
89.0
91.9
87.9
87.7
86.5
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
7.7
7.5
6.6
5.5
5.0
7.5
6.8
6.3
5.7
5.1
7.2
6.8
6.4
5.4
5.0
7.7
7.0
5.6
4.9
4.7
7.5
7.0
6.2
5.4
5.0
1970
1971
Un:
1
Annual averages for the years 1947 through 1950 will differ from those published by the source agency.
by 0.91) to the level of data for subsequent years to facilitate seasonal adjustment and other analysis.
2
This series is based on 19 cities for 1945-66 and on 35 cities thereafter.
1 beginning with 1968.
4
Since last shown here, this series has been revised beginning with 1948.
102
®
...
...
...
92.7
82.7
1970
1971
NOTE:
AVERAGE
...
...
...
...
...
For use in BCD, quarterly data for thesi years have been adjusted (i.e., multiplied
(NOVEMBER 1971)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol @ (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
05. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCEi STATE PROGRAMS— 47 AREAS 1
(PERCENT DECLINING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
II Q
III Q
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
70.2
61.7
21.3
51.1
23.4
42.6
29.8
61.7
34.0
40.4
44.7
48.9
59.6
28.7
48.9
38.3
50.0
61.7
29.8
46.8
57.4
89.4
27.7
17.0
74.5
38.3
53.2
51.1
36.2
44.7
58.5
19.1
89.4
34.0
42.6
61.7
78.7
50.4
48.9
32.6
46.1
41.1
53.2
64.6
37.6
42.5
50.7
39.0
70.9
52.9
41.7
49.8
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959.. <
44.7
61.7
27.7
38.3
87.2
66.0
55.3
80.9
5.3
40.4
66.0
44.7
38.3
53.2
59.6
53.2
63.8
27.7
44.7
85.1
57.4
37.2
48.9
73.4
40.4
34.0
44.7
42.6
55.3
38.3
71.3
40*4
46.8
68.1
47.9
44.7
50.0
64.9
59.6
51.1
46.8
45.7
60.6
40.4
72.3
17.0
66.0
44.7
21.3
64.9
53.2
27.7
29.8
55.3
36.2
91.5
58.9
53.9
49.0
32.3
62.4
48.2
48.6
39.7
57.8
54.6
55.3
51.1
39.4
55.7
45.7
47.9
46.5
39.7
57.8
53.9
52.6
50.0
42.0
50.9
54.2
I960..,
1961..
1962...
1963..
1964..
31.9
59.6
46.8
34.0
89.4
44.7
17.0
76.6
89.4
27.7
17.0
80.9
38.3
31.9
57.4
46.8
46.8
48.9
47.9
77.7
36.2
51.1
46.8
46.8
48.9
41.5
70.2
19.1
68.1
48.9
62.8
46.8
63.8
44.7
63.8
19.1
57.4
61.7
44.7
51.1
68.1
47.9
42.6
44.7
53.2
40.4
80.9
36.2
59.6
34.0
34.0
72.3
72.3
40.4
31.9
61.7
31.9
36.2
23.4
83.0
31.2
52.5
53.9
51.8
58.2
41.5
56.0
38.3
54.3
58.5
50.0
50.7
56.0
44.7
56.0
45.4
61.7
48.2
41.1
49.6
42.0
55.2
49.1
48.0
55.6
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
24.5
38.3
55.3
25.5
72.3
57.4
44.7
17.0
80.9
38.3
66.0
83.0
46.8
25.5
55.3
61.7
53.2
55.3
63.8
48.9
59.6
45.7
54.3
51.1
57.4
51.1
57.4
55.3
53.2
23.4
34.0
17.0
34.0
57.4
51.1
38.3
72.3
72.3
40.4
59.6
78.7
80.9
60.6
63.8
38.3
57.4
36.2
38.3
66.0
45.7
44.7
46.8
74.5
31.9
31.9
51.1
27.7
46.8
61.7
57.4
49.3
55.3
39.7
44.0
55.3
57.5
52.1
55.0
56.0
43.2
50.3
56.7
55.6
53.9
49.7
51.1
36.9
53.2
53.2
45.0
52.0
50.3
50.9
51.8
48.3
1970...
1971...
D5. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE? STATE PROGRAMS--47 AREAS 1
(PERCENT DECLINING OVER 9-MONTH SPANS)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1953...
1954...
55.3
4.3
42.6
10.6
38.3
25.5
8.5
27.7
74.5
10.6
14.9
72.3
4.3
25.5
63.8
2.1
66.0
72.3
2.1
95.7
80.9
0.0
93.6
74.5
10.6
93,6
80.9
6.4
91.5
87.2
2.1
87.2
45.4
13.5
63.8
7.8
22.7
72.3
1.4
85.1
80.9
6.4
90.8
15.2
53.0
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
93.6
46.8
34.0
4.3
97.9
87.2
44.7
31.9
19.1
93.6
93.6
29.8
23.4
12.8
76.6
85.1
38.3
21.3
31.9
76.6
83.0
43.6
12.8
27.7
83.0
85.1
57.4
21.3
57.4
19.1
78.7
55.3
0.0
95.7
36.2
55.3
42.6
4.3
91.5
48.9
59.6
21.3
8.5
97.9
25.5
70.2
63.8
0.0
93.6
25.5
66.0
43.6
0.0
97.9
17.0
68.1
42.6
6.4
91.5
31.9
91.5
40.4
29.8
12.1
89.4
84.4
46.4
18.5
39.0
59.6
64.5
39.7
4.3
95.0
36.9
68.1
50.0
2.1
94.3
24.8
77.1
44.2
13.7
60.1
52.6
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
14.9
55.3
80.9
44.7
73.4
25.5
53.2
55.3
66.0
72.3
51.1
63.8
48.9
72.3
70.2
25.5
85.1
36.2
48.9
74.5
12.8
70.2
46.8
63.8
89.4
10.6
89.4
44.7
80.9
60.6
6.4
100.0
38.3
46.8
61.7
21.3
93.6
27.7
31.9
89.4
21.3
88.3
27.7
85.1
61.7
14.9
95.7
53.2
60.6
70.2
27.7
93.6
74.5
53.2
74.5
19.1
80.9
53.2
73.4
72.3
30.5
57.4
61.7
61.0
72.0
16.3
81.6
42.6
64.5
74.8
16.3
94.0
31.2
54.6
70.9
20.6
90.1
60.3
62.4
72.3
20.9
80.8
49.0
60.6
72.5
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
78.7
91.5
27.7
57.4
70.2
78.7
74.5
8.5
51.1
46.8
59.6
44.7
8.5
61.7
40*4
66.0
68.1
31.9
38.3
58.5
61.7
76.6
44.7
51.1
34.0
78.7
78.7
29.8
74.5
25.5
80.9
80.9
78.7
36.2
28.7
87.2
34.0
78.7
66.0
24.5
70.2
34.0
66.0
76.6
8.5
62.8
23.4
80.9
63.8
6.4
91.5
17.0
70.2
78.7
12.8
95.7
46.8
78.7
59.6
12.8
72.3
70.2
14.9
56.7
52.5
68.8
74.5
35.5
54.6
39.3
79.4
49.6
74.5
59.6
20.6
83.3
29.1
76.6
67.4
10.7
76.0
55.8
50.4
59.6
30.8
1970...
1971...
D6. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR Vfl LUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW C RDERS. DURABLE GOODS INDUST RIES— 35 INDUSTRIES2
(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
1949...
52.4
38.1
31.0
38.1
57.1
28.6
66.7
85.7
19.0
83.3
52.4
42.1
60.3
51.6
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
66.7
73.8
40.5
66.7
42.9
57.1
31.0
57.1
28.6
65.7
57.1
52.4
45.2
38.6
31.4
76.2
47.6
61.9
68.6
51.4
81.0
52.4
19.0
27.1
44.3
52.4
28.6
61.9
14.3
65.7
95.2
47.6
66.7
77.1
77.1
83.3
38.1
28.6
20.0
58.6
31.0
23.8
66.7
47.1
57.1
33.3
81.0
64.3
32.9
58.6
57.1
38.1
38.1
45.7
48.6
85.7
33.3
57.1
60.0
71.4
60.3
52.4
47.6
44.6
46.7
69.9
42.9
47.6
36.7
53.8
69.8
36.5
54.0
48.1
64.3
58.7
50.8
53.2
46.2
59.5
64.7
45.6
50.6
43.9
56.1
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
77.1
31.4
38.6
54.3
71.4
67.1
28.6
60.0
42.9
81.4
72.9
57.1
38.6
45.7
67.1
35.7
67.1
20.0
57.1
38.6
57.1
51.4
60.0
68.6
55.7
87.1
50.0
50.0
57.1
45.7
45.7
25.7
41.4
62.9
45.7
65.7
68.6
57.1
68.6
18.6
40.0
40.0
52.9
80.0
74.3
68.6
75.7
35.7
45.7
47.1
58.6
80.0
44.3
78.6
34.3
45.7
38.6
14.3
40.0
70.0
72.4
39.0
45.7
47.6
73.3
60.0
56.2
43.3
60.9
46.7
50.5
44.8
50.5
70.5
46.2
57.6
64.8
31.4
54.8
50.5
60.1
51.2
42.7
58.5
54.2
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
25.7
34.3
62.9
54.3
75.7
42.9
57.1
52.9
70.0
31.4
42.9
68.6
45.7
45.7
68.6
62.9
62.9
45.7
60.0
54.3
50.0
70.0
55.7
62.9
61.4
38.6
68.6
45.7
50.0
54.3
42.9
42.9
61.4
62.9
68.6
51.4
71.4
51.4
45.7
31.4
48.6
55.7
57.1
57.1
64.3
32.9
55.7
60.0
68.6
47.1
45.7
57.1
55.7
37.1
45.7
57.1
42.9
40.0
57.1
55.7
37.2
53.3
53.8
56.7
58.6
50.5
67.2
49.0
57.6
56.7
47.6
56.7
56.6
55.2
54.8
45.2
51.9
51.9
54.3
49.5
45.1
57.3
52.8
56.0
54.9
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
54.3
65.7
44.3
40.0
54.3
40.0
48.6
54.3
51.4
62.9
68.6
75.7
48.6
45.7
62.9
60.0
32.9
47.1
51.4
48.6
45.7
60.0
62.9
54.3
48.6
64.3
55.7
64.3
52.9
40.0
70.0
48.6
40.0
54.3
57.1
50.0
52.9
67.1
54.3
35.7
62.9
48.6
27.1
72.9
62.9
68.6
50.0
48.6
68.6
54.3
77.1
37.1
65.7
51.4
38.6
74.3
51.4
65.7
51.4
50.0
54.3
63.3
49.1
45.7
60.0
56.7
49.5
58.1
52.9
45.7
61.0
50.0
44.7
60.5
51.9
73.3
46.2
60.0
57.1
47.6
61.3
52.3
53.0
54.0
51.3
1970...
1971...
.g with 1966.
(NOVEMBER 1971)
103
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol (u) (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
D6.
Mar.
Feb.
DIFFUSION INDEX
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
FOR VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS* DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES— 35 INDUSTRIES 1
(PERCENT RISING OVER 9-MONTH SPANS)
88.6
34.3
25.7
60.0
85.7
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
45.7
54.3
58.6
82.9
82.9
41.4
57.1
58.6
80.0
82.9
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
78.6
88.6
45.7
57.1
74.3
91.4
91.4
48.6
68.6
62.9
77.6
57.2
20.9
88.6
39.0
69.5
49.0
27.6
89.0
30.5
81.1
49.9
25.4
76.5
59.0
41.4
59.0
56.2
81.4
81.9
42.9
82.8
54.3
73.3
82.4
43.3
81.0
55.7
71.0
80.0
39.0
79.1
76.2
74.8
76.2
41.7
75.5
60.6
75.1
80.1
85.2
87.6
47.1
66.7
67.6
83.8
69.0
61.9
70.9
59.0
87.6
43.8
70.5
79.1
45.2
94.3
36.2
62.9
82.4
37.2
87.7
59.2
60.6
74.8
52.3
95.2
53.9
47.6
55.6
44.8
80.0
51.4
14.3
88.6
71.4
74.3
68.6
20.0
91.4
42.9
71.4
64.3
17.1
82.9
37.1
87.1
38.6
25.7
91.4
37.1
68.6
54.3
28.6
85.7
34.3
68.6
41.4
28.6
90.0
22.9
71.4
51.4
25.7
91.4
34.3
89.5
55.7
36.2
47.6
91.4
42.9
77.1
54.3
74.3
85.7
34.3
91.4
57.1
77.1
75.7
45.7
77.1
50.0
58.6
74.3
50.0
82.9
54.3
72.9
82.9
34.3
82.9
62.9
81.4
82.9
25.7
82.9
75.7
68.6
78.6
40.0
72.9
80.0
84.3
72.9
51.4
81.4
72.9
71.4
77.1
88.6
71.4
60.0
71.4
65.7
80.0
54.3
54.3
71.4
54.3
94.3
51.4
71.4
88.6
47.1
82.9
34.3
82.9
80.0
42.9
85.7
45.7
57.1
68.6
45.7
97.1
37.1
62.9
74.3
38.6
91.4
34.3
60.0
84.3
42.9
94.3
37.1
65.7
88.6
30.0
82.9
81.4
71.4
70.0
57.1
85.7
68.6
45.7
51.4
94.3
87.6
37.6
16.7
81.0
75.2
85.7
38.1
66.7
22.9
88.6
85.7
82.9
47.1
74.3
65.7
94.3
64.3
37.1
31.4
94.3
95.6
28.8
51.6
27.3
73.3
90.5
95.2
28.6
47.6
27,1
91.4
51.4
80.0
51.4
68.6
85.7
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
90.5
25.4
66.7
20.5
91.4
95.2
90.5
9.5
85.7
11.4
94.3
37.1
65.7
51.4
81.4
80*0
100.0
50.0
26.2
28.6
65.7
90.5
85.7
100.0
4.8
52.4
7.1
88.6
88.6
21.4
18.6
80.0
82.9
100.0
47.6
42.9
52.4
55.7
96.8
12.7
47.6
7.6
82.9
57.1
95.2
9.5
52.4
8.6
94.3
94.3
40.0
17.1
74.3
71.4
95.2
57.1
66.7
47.6
44.3
95.2
Annual
IV Q
73.0
66.7
100.0
9.5
57.1
5.7
91.4
90.5
57.1
33.3
66.7
34.3
III Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
95.2
23.8
38.1
7.1
65.7
52.4
100.0
9.5
50.0
42.9
65.7
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
II Q
100.0
23.0
44.4
25.7
74.3
1970...
1971...
D47 .
DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION—-24 INDUSTRIES2
(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1947...
1948...
1949...
60.4
22.9
75.0
54.2
16.7
68.7
47.9
37.5
54.2
58.3
18.7
52.1
58.3
20.8
50.0
60.4
50.0
54.2
50.0
50.0
56.2
50.0
70.8
77.1
20.8
72.9
79.2
56.2
54.2
81.2
22.9
50.0
70.8
27.1
70.8
54.2
25.7
52.1
59.0
29.8
62.5
40.3
64.6
77.1
35.4
58.3
47.2
44.6
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
75.0
54.2
75.0
54.2
43.7
75.0
52.1
77.1
52.1
66.7
70.8
62.5
50.0
85.4
58.3
87.5
58.3
47.9
72.9
43.7
81.2
35.4
62.5
62.5
83.3
95.8
37.5
68.7
33.3
64.6
97.9
29.2
47.9
87.5
60.4
89.6
33.3
91.7
33.3
43.7
41.7
56.2
81.2
12.5
62,5
70.8
43.7
77.1
20.8
81.2
60.4
66.7
97.9
16.7
95.8
66.7
75.0
58.3
16.7
83.3
73.6
56.3
67.4
63.9
56.2
88.2
43.7
59.7
56.2
63.9
76.4
39.6
73.6
44.4
55.5
66.0
61.8
77.8
18.1
86.8
76.0
50.3
69.6
45.7
65.6
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
89.6
62.5
47.9
18.7
85.4
81.2
41.7
83.3
8.3
89.6
91.7
47.9
50.0
31.2
75.0
83.3
85.4
22.9
27.1
91.7
83.3
18.7
33.3
68.7
75.0
83.3
29.2
60.4
93.7
54.2
43.7
60.4
50.0
87.5
64.6
52.1
68.7
62.5
81.2
20.8
68.7
54.2
25.0
83.3
60.4
91.7
62.5
8.3
70.8
43.7
66.7
47.9
0.0
89.6
45.8
66.7
68.7
20.8
58.3
95.8
87.5
50.7
60.4
19.4
83.3
83.3
44.4
38.9
63.2
73.6
54.8
61.1
45.8
84.0
48.6
75.0
59.7
9.7
72.9
61.8
75.2
54.0
38.7
59.9
66.8
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
66.7
70.8
14.6
64.6
91.7
50.0
54.2
75.0
70.8
68.7
47.9
66.7
72.9
68.7
45.8
41.7
77.1
64.6
72.9
89.6
35.4
66.7
56.2
70.8
75.0
22.9
89.6
39.6
56.2
54.2
35.4
75.0
58.3
58.3
77.1
31.2
79.2
58.3
70.8
70.8
22.9
56.2
79.2
68.7
70.8
50.0
95.8
25.0
62.5
70.8
25.0
77.1
77.1
60.4
70.8
16.7
56.2
64.6
35.4
79.2
54.9
63.9
54.2
68.0
68.7
33.3
77.8
53.5
66.6
72.9
29.8
70.1
65.3
65.9
72.9
30.6
76.4
55.6
52.8
73.6
37.2
72.0
57.1
63.3
72.0
1965...
1966...
1967...
77.1
68.7
47.9
62.5
72.9
12.5
75.0
87.5
33.3
52.1
54.2
64.6
66.7
81.2
29.2
1969...
70.8
66.7
79.2
29.2
62.5
79.2
54.2
75.0
56.2
66.7
66.7
66.7
45.8
45.8
58.3
70.8
62.5
79.2
62.5
41.7
66.7
64.6
50.0
60.4
47.9
85.4
58.3
56.2
54.2
60.4
79.2
37.5
75.0
72.9
47.9
83.3
47.9
64.6
29.2
41.7
71.5
76.4
31.2
65.3
72.2
66.0
63.2
56.3
61.8
52.8
68.1
64.6
58.3
56.2
49.3
82.6
47.9
65.3
52.1
50.0
72.1
63.0
52.8
58.8
56.1
1970...
1971...
D47 .
DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION— 24 INDUSTRIES 2
(PERCENT RISING OVER 6-MONTH SPANS)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
95.8
8.3
83.3
83.3
29.2
91.7
73.6
16.0
51.4
74.3
39.6
77.8
40.3
57.0
90.3
18.1
86.1
51*. 6
49.7
87.5
58.3
95.8
4.2
91.7
62.5
77.1
91.7
8.3
100.0
64.6
64.6
87.5
14.6
100.0
98.6
48.6
66.0
69.4
40.3
98.6
36.1
73.6
61.1
66.7
95.1
37.5
97.2
18.1
83.3
71.5
66.7
91.7
9.0
97.2
91.0
47.2
82.1
39.4
71.9
89.6
70.8
4.2
95.8
70.8
79.2
83.3
2.1
100.0
83.3
98.6
62.5
56.2
19.4
95.8
93.0
50.0
41.0
75.0
75.0
91.7
62.5
14.6
98.6
47.9
81.3
77.8
3.5
95.8
77.1
91.1
63.2
28.8
72.2
74.0
8.3
95.8
75.0
66.7
95.8
16.7
87.5
83.3
83.3
87.5
25.0
95.8
87.5
87.5
91.7
45.8
91.7
75.0
79.2
100.0
72.2
72.9
71.5
97.2
93.7
27.1
94.5
76.4
91.0
88.9
13.9
98.6
66.0
80.6
90.3
29.2
91.7
81.9
83.3
93.1
35.6
89.4
74.0
88.0
91.5
87.5
62.5
75.0
66.7
45.8
95.8
50.0
85.4
75.0
29.2
87.5
31.2
87.5
68.7
33.3
95.8
29.2
89.6
83.3
16.7
84.0
91.7
36.1
93.7
73.6
86.1
72.9
63.9
86.1
68.0
91.7
65.3
76.4
70.8
57.6
93.0
36.8
87.5
75.7
26.4
88.7
66.7
66.0
81.6
56.4
1948...
1949...
75.0
12.5
79.2
12.5
66.7
22.9
62.5
75.0
25.0
45.8
81.2
41.7
45.8
66.7
52.1
64.6
56.2
54.2
83.3
41.7
52.1
85.4
22.9
64.6
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
100.0
62.5
66.7
79.2
25.0
100.0
45.8
62.5
68.7
45.8
95.8
37.5
68.7
60.4
50.0
100.0
31.2
50.0
75.0
66.7
100.0
35.4
75.0
66.7
70.8
95.8
41.7
95.8
41.7
62.5
93.7
37.5
91.7
20.8
83.3
95.8
37.5
100.0
16.7
79.2
95.8
37.5
100.0
16.7
87.5
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
95.8
79.2
58.3
8.3
100.0
100.0
62.5
56.2
16.7
95.8
100.0
45.8
54.2
33.3
91.7
95.8
39.6
56.2
50.0
83.3
95.8
50.0
37.5
83.3
79.2
87.5
60.4
29.2
91.7
62.5
100.0
50.0
22.9
95.8
45.8
87.5
58.3
8.3
100.0
35.4
87.5
79.2
12.5
100.0
62.5
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
79.2
47.9
79.2
95.8
91.7
87.5
79.2
77.1
95.8
93.7
50.0
91.7
58.3
100.0
95.8
25.0
91.7
83.3
85.4
87.5
35.4
100.0
70.8
95.8
91.7
20.8
91.7
75.0
91.7
87.5
20.8
100.0
54.2
91.7
91.7
12.5
100.0
68.7
83.3
83.3
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
79.2
91.7
41.7
91.7
70.8
91.7
91.7
37.5
93.7
70.8
81.2
91.7
29.2
95.8
79.2
87.5
75.0
43.7
100.0
70.8
87.5
77.1
68.7
79.2
75.0
83.3
66.7
79.2
79.2
58.3
91.7
66.7
70.8
83.3
66.7
95.8
66.7
83.3
62.5
60.4
91.7
16.7
83.3
75.0
79.2
4.2
91.7
77.1
1970...
1971...
i based on 21 components for the period 1949 through 1952 and <
;his series has been revised beginning with 1954.
mts thereafter.
Since last shown here, this series has been revised beginning with
1965.
(NOVEMBER 197i)
104
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Feb.
Jan.
Mar.
Apr.
19.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
INDEX OF STOCK PRICESt 500 COMMON STOCKS ®
(1941-43=10)
II Q
IIIQ
Annual
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...
13.49
18.02
15.21
14.83
15.36
13.94
18.07
15.80
14.10
14.77
13.93
17.53
15.16
14.30
14.91
14.28
18.66
14.60
15.40
14.89
14.82
18.70
14.34
16.15
14.78
15.09
18.58
14.84
16.82
13.97
14.78
18.05
15.77
16.42
14.76
14.83
17.70
15.46
15.94
15.29
15.84
15.09
15.06
15.76
15.49
16.50
14.75
15.45
16.19
15.89
17.04
14.69
15.27
15.29
16.11
17.33
15.13
15.03
15.19
16.54
13.79
17.87
15.39
14.41
15.01
14.73
18.65
14.59
16.12
14.55
15.15
16.95
15.43
16.04
15.18
16.96
14.86
15.25
15.56
16.18
15.16
17.08
15.17
15.53
15.23
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
16.88
21.21
24.19
26.18
25.46
17.21
22.00
23.75
25.86
26.02
17.35
21.63
23.81
25.99
26.57
17,84
21,92
23.74
24.71
27.63
18.44
21.93
23.73
24.84
28.73
18.74
21.55
24.38
23.95
28.96
17.38
21.93
25.08
24.29
30.13
18.43
22*89
25.18
24.39
30.73
19.08
23.48
24.78
23.27
31.45
19.87
23.36
24.26
23.97
32.18
19.83
22.71
25.03
24.50
33.44
19.75
23.41
26.04
24.83
34.97
17.15
21.61
23.92
26.01
26.02
18.34
21.80
23.95
24.50
28.44
18.30
22.77
25.01
23.98
30.77
19.82
23.16
25.11
24.43
33.53
18.40
22.34
24.50
24.73
29.69
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
35.60
44.15
45.43
41.12
55.62
36.79
44.43
43.47
41.26
54.77
36.50
47.49
44.03
42.11
56.15
37,76
48.05
45.05
42.34
57.10
37.60
46.54
46.78
43.70
57.96
39.78
46.27
47.55
44.75
57.46
42.69
48.78
48.51
45.98
59.74
42.43
48.49
45.84
47.70
59.40
44.34
46.84
43.98
48.96
57.05
42.11
46.24
41.24
50.95
57.00
44.95
45.76
40.35
52.50
57.23
45.37
46.44
40.33
53.49
59.06
36.30
45.36
44.31
41.50
55.51
38.38
46.95
46.46
43.60
57.51
43.15
48.04
46.11
47.55
58.73
44.14
46.15
40.64
52.31
57.76
40.49
46.62
44.38
46.24
57.38
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
58.03
59.72
69.07
65.06
76.45
55.78
62.17
70.22
65.92
77.39
55.02
64.12
70.29
65.67
78.80
55.73
65.83
68.05
68.76
79.94
55.22
66.50
62.99
70.14
80.72
57.26
65.62
55.63
70.11
80.24
55.84
65.44
56.97
69.07
83.22
56.51
67.79
58.52
70.98
82.00
54.81
67.26
58.00
72.85
83.41
53.73
68.00
56.17
73.03
84.85
55.47
71.08
60.04
72.62
85.44
56.80
71.74
62.64
74.17
83.96
56.28
62.00
69.86
65.55
77.55
56.07
65.98
62.22
69.67
80.30
55.72
66.83
57.83
70.97
82.88
55.33
70.27
59.62
73.27
84.75
55.85
66.27
62.38
69.86
81.37
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
86.12
93.32
84.45
95.04
102.04
86.75
92.69
87.36
90.75
101.46
86.83
88.88
89.42
89.09
99.30
87.97
91.60
90.96
95.67
101.26
89.28
86.78
92.59
97.87
104.62
85.04
86.06
91.43
100.53
99.14
84.91
85.84
93.01
100.30
94.71
86.49
80*65
94.49
98.11
94.18
89.38
77.81
95.81
101.34
94.51
91.39
77.13
95.66
103.76
95.52
92.15
80.99
92.66
105.40
96.21
91.73
81.33
95.30
106.48
91.11
86.57
91.63
87.08
91.63
100.93
87.43
88.15
91.66
98.02
101.67
86.93
81.43
94,44
99,92
94,47
91.76
79.82
94.54
105.21
94.28
88.17
85.26
91.93
98.70
97.84
1970...
1971...
D19. DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF STOCK P R I C E S t 500 COMMON STOCKS— 72-82 I N D U S T R I E S 1
(PERCENT R I S I N G OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
®
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
::.
1948...
1949...
73.7
2.5
17.5
81.2
71.2
93.1
47.5
95.6
29.4
80.0
1.9
12.5
100.0
3.7
95.0
31.9
72.5
61.9
95.0
1.2
65.6
41.2
86.2
54.1
89.6
26.3
16.0
89.2
34.8
82.3
63.0
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
87.5
98.7
76.9
71.2
93.1
66.2
85.0
25.6
43.7
79.4
66.2
21.9
56.2
80.6
80.6
47.5
49.4
21.2
5.6
85.6
75.0
40.0
38.1
41.2
86.9
33.1
20.0
78.1
0.0
71.2
19.4
47.5
85.6
65.0
90.6
94.4
92.5
53.7
76.9
83.1
90.0
93.1
13.7
0.0
51.9
92.5
41.9
13.7
75.6
60.6
31.9
6.2
90.0
81.2
91.9
52.5
71.2
90.0
67.5
96.2
73.3
68.5
52.9
65.2
84.4
51.9
36.5
45.8
15.6
81.2
67.9
77.7
51.0
47.3
75.2
59.0
39.8
64.6
74.8
82.9
63.0
55.6
53.6
50.7
80.9
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
72.5
41.2
57.5
91.9
86.2
87.5
41.9
13.7
77.5
62.5
47.5
88.7
81.2
73.1
80.6
83.7
33.7
74.4
59.4
53.1
33.1
23.1
78.7
91.2
53.7
88.7
20.0
42.5
86.2
41.9
53.7
95.0
51.9
85.6
80.6
23.1
56.9
7.5
88.7
42.5
70.6
12.5
8.1
84.4
9.4
5.0
23.7
4.4
80.0
52.5
86.9
46.9
26.2
89.4
55.6
71.9
45.6
49.4
82.5
71.9
69.2
57.3
50.8
80.8
76.4
68.5
25.6
65.2
78.9
49.6
49.1
54.8
22.5
86.2
44.2
54.6
38.7
26.7
84.0
60.0
60.4
44.1
41.3
82.5
57.5
I960...
1961.,,
1962,,,
1963...
1964...
27.5
86.9
25.6
97.5
74.7
12.5
96.2
75.0
78.7
65.2
34.4
85.6
47.5
43.7
78.5
51.9
72.5
8.7
91.2
75.6
35.0
81.9
1.2
85.0
52.6
76.2
40.0
1.2
51.9
35.3
35.0
42.5
69.4
29.4
89.7
76.2
81.2
78.1
75.0
41.0
16.9
40.0
36.2
76.9
76.3
25.0
46.9
8.1
44.9
73.1
90.0
87.5
98.7
44.9
59.6
81.2
55.0
84.4
68.4
24.0
24.8
89.6
49.4
73.3
72.8
54.4
64.8
3.7
76.0
54.5
42.7
54.6
61,2
60.4
69.0
65.4
63.1
63.7
52.7
52.2
46.8
68.0
44.5
65.6
62.1
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
92.2
74.0
90.9
64.5
12.0
81.8
48.7
92.2
10.5
43.3
64.3
14.3
61.0
21.1
13.3
70.8
63.6
76.0
94.7
54.0
66.9
3.9
74.0
83.6
74.7
0.0
23.4
51.3
80.3
1.3
24.7
38.3
81.6
48.7
4.0
79.9
6.5
77.6
17.8
34.7
81.2
3.9
57.2
86.7
61.3
66.9
25.3
32.2
82.7
72.7
70.1
88.3
7.9
77.3
68.0
57.1
59.7
71.1
72.7
4.0
79.4
45.7
81.4
32.0
22.9
45.9
30.3
67.1
86.2
43.3
61.9
16.2
72.1
51.1
33.3
64.7
57.8
37.1
77.6
48.2
63.0
37.5
64.4
61.7
36.9
1970...
1971...
019. D I F F U S I O N INDEX FOR INDEX OF STOCK P R I C E S t 500 COMMON STOCKS — 72-82 INDUSTRIES 1
(PERCENT R I S I N G OVER 9-MONTH SPANS)
<g)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1949...
27.5
18.7
27.5
53.7
63.7
61.2
70.6
61.2
83.7
55.0
85.0
32.5
96.2
11.2
97.5
10.0
96.2
20.0
92.5
24.6
62.7
49.6
88.3
13.7
95.4
6?;;
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
90.0
96.2
42.5
59.4
83.7
87.5
83.7
35.0
38.1
91.2
62.5
68.7
52.5
55.0
92.5
68.7
80.0
67.5
48.7
97.5
71.2
86.2
58.7
16.2
97.5
71.9
70.0
42.5
17.5
96.2
67.5
45.6
64.4
30.0
96.2
65.0
62.5
74.4
31.2
97.5
78.7
61.2
80.0
53.7
100.0
80.0
52.5
81.2
65.6
98.7
84.4
66.2
79.4
83.7
98.7
96.9
62.5
65.0
83.7
98.7
80.0
82.9
43.3
50.8
89.1
70.6
78.7
56.2
27.5
97.1
70.4
56.4
72.9
38.3
97.9
87.1
60.4
75.2
77.7
98.7
77.0
69,6
61,9
48.6
95.7
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
91.2
56.2
51.2
47.5
95.0
97.5
51.2
59.4
60.0
85.0
96.2
72.5
65.0
95.0
85.0
95.0
67.5
50.0
100.0
84.4
88.7
55.6
36.9
100.0
67.5
70.0
48.7
20.0
98.7
61.9
68.7
43.7
25.0
100.0
55.6
81.2
31.9
23.7
100.0
56.9
63.7
33.7
31.2
100.0
50.6
72.5
27.5
26.2
100.0
33.7
73.7
41.2
30.0
98.7
32.5
60.6
33.1
30.0
96.2
26.2
95.0
60.0
58.5
67.5
88.3
84.6
57.3
35.6
99.6
71.3
71.2
36.4
26.6
100.0
54.4
68.9
33.9
28.7
98.3
30.8
79.9
46.9
37.4
91.3
61.2
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
30.0
97.5
17.5
95.0
83.1
41,2
97.5
6.2
95.0
78.2
42*5
97.5
7.5
98.7
86,5
42.5
97.5
3.1
95.0
85.9
36.9
95.6
3.7
89.1
84.6
38.7
81.2
2.5
84.6
84.6
46.2
76.2
1.2
78.2
81.8
57.5
73.7
3.7
79.5
68.8
68.7
71.2
18.7
77.6
65.6
83.7
67.5
67.5
69.2
75.3
90,0
70.0
93.7
71.2
76.6
97.5
62.5
95.0
84.4
76.6
37.9
97.5
10.4
96.2
82.6
39.4
91.4
3.1
89.6
85,0
57.5
73.7
7.9
78.4
72.1
90.4
66.7
85.4
74.9
76.2
56.3
82,3
26.7
84.8
79.0
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
80.5
51.9
85.7
61.8
73.3
58.4
43.5
90.3
63,2
40.0
51.9
37.7
97.4
71.1
14.7
58.4
22.1
93.4
76.3
12.0
72.7
11.7
92.1
82.7
6.7
67.5
6.5
86.2
85.3
21.3
61.0
9.7
68.4
93.3
25.3
59.1
22.1
65.8
97.3
21.3
63.6
20.1
71.1
81.3
20.0
60.4
47.4
52.6
71.3
14.7
67,5
58.4
46.1
52.0
25.3
70.1
66.2
50.0
56.0
31.5
63.6
44.4
91.1
65.4
42.7
66.2
13,4
90.6
81.4
13.3
61.2
17.3
68.4
90.6
22.2
66.0
57,3
49.6
59.8
23.8
64.3
33.1
74.9
74.3
25.5
1970...
1971...
NOTE: These series contain no revisions but ar<
1
Based on 82 components through February 1963; < n 80 compon< nts, March 1963 through August 1963; on 79 components, September 1963 thr< ugh March 1964;
>vember 1964; on 77 components, December 1964 thr<ugh June 19< 7; on 76 components, July 1967 through August 1968; and 75 components the:eafter.
i 78 components, April 1964 through
(NOVEMBER 1971)
105
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Monthly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
48. MAN-HOURS IN NONAGRI CULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
(ANNUAL RATEf BILLIONS OF MAN-HOURS)
II Q
III Q
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1947...
1948...
1949...
92.18
93.78
92.64
92.05
93.30
92.40
91.99
93.76
91.60
91.24
92.67
91.10
91.79
93.52
90.75
92.07
94.19
90.07
91.56
94.44
89.70
91.82
94.35
89.79
92.62
94.31
89.89
93.04
93.93
88.23
93.24
94.00
88.86
93.82
93.71
89.31
92.07
93.61
92.21
91.70
93.46
90.64
92.00
94.37
89.79
93.37
93.88
88.80
92.28
93,83
90,36
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
89.56
99.12
100.93
104.27
100.84
89.13
99.31
101.31
104.68
101.29
90.88
99.71
100.91
105.05
100.85
91.42
100.26
100.45
104.93
100.52
92.73
100.10
100.99
104.53
99.92
93.86
100.13
100.10
104.54
99.93
94.82
100.18
99.61
104.40
99.76
96.76
99.82
101.12
103.80
99.67
96.65
99.52
102.94
102.81
99.64
97.20
99.35
103.16
103.63
100.15
97.87
99.98
103.40
102.55
101.30
97.67
100.40
104.43
102.05
101.56
89.86
99.38
101.05
104.67
100.99
92.67
100.16
100.51
104.67
100.12
96.08
99.84
101.22
103.67
99.69
97.58
99.91
103.66
102.74
101.00
94.05
99.82
101.61
103.94
100.45
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
101.70
107.23
108.11
105.30
106.68
102.27
107.51
108.88
103.54
106.86
103.44
107.02
108.70
103.13
107.76
103.57
107.84
108.11
102.40
108.75
104.77
107.52
108.14
102.46
109.31
104.91
107.82
107.94
102.58
109.56
105.20
106.58
108.04
102.83
109.28
105.43
107.85
108.12
103.43
108.34
106.09
107.90
107.48
104.46
108.06
106.30
108.48
106.46
104.46
107.94
106.81
108.69
106.08
105.52
108.40
107.27
109.01
105.88
105.80
110.06
102.47
107.25
108.56
103.99
107.10
104.42
107.73
108.06
102.48
109.21
105.57
107.44
107.88
103.57
108.56
106.79
108.73
106.14
105.26
108.80
104.81
107.79
107.66
103.83
108.42
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
110.36
108.13
110.04
113.55
115.02
110.52
108.25
111.55
113.73
116.70
110.17
108.17
112.25
113.93
117.14
110.70
108.04
112.76
114.63
117.30
110.41
108.72
112.89
114.84
117.54
110.27
109.23
113.03
115.17
117.81
110.25
109.69
113.05
115.28
118.13
110.15
109.98
113.18
115.35
118.43
109.57
109.54
113.68
115.78
118.45
109.40
110.35
113.06
116.16
118.76
108.79
111.21
113.50
116.09
119.97
107.21
111.06
113.38
116.26
121.01
110.35
108.18
111.28
113.74
116.29
110.46
108.66
112.89
114.88
117.55
109.99
109.74
113.30
115.47
118,34
108.47
110.87
113.31
116.17
119.91
109.82
109.36
112.70
115.06
118.02
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
120.92
126.55
131.38
131.17
137.25
121.75
127.62
130.64
133.50
137.26
122.14
128.28
130.73
133.48
138.20
122.11
128.22
130.36
133.74
138.54
122.91
128.57
130.74
134.27
139.12
122.84
129.54
131.10
134.84
139.30
123.22
129.50
131.16
135.21
139.24
123.91
129.98
131.77
135.54
139.69
123.97
129.94
131.98
135.67
139.77
124.63
130.30
131.75
136.09
139.95
125.47
130.71
133.02
136.16
139.95
126.26
130.78
132.79
136.44
140.12
121.60
127.48
130.92
132.72
137.57
122.62
128.78
130.73
134.28
138.99
123.70
129.81
131.64
135.47
139.57
125.45
130,60
132.52
136,23
140.01
123.34
129.17
131.45
134.68
139.03
1970...
1971...
48-B. PERCENT CHANGES IN MAN-HOURS IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS
(ANNUAL RATEf PERCENT)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1947...
1948...
1949...
-0.5
-13.7
-1.7
-6.1
-3.1
-0.8
5.9
-10.4
-9.8
-14.0
-6.6
7.2
11.0
-4.6
3.7
8.6
-9.0
-6.6
3.2
-4.9
3.4
-1.1
1.2
10.5
-0.5
1.3
5.4
-4.8
-22.2
2.6
0.9
8.6
7.5
-3.7
6.1
-o!2
-9.1
0.4
1.9
-6.7
2.4
0.5
-0.8
5.2
-2.5
-2.5
-0.1
-4,8
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
3.4
17.8
6.3
-1.8
-14.2
-5.8
2.3
4.5
4.7
5.4
23.6
4.8
-4.7
4.2
-5.2
7.1
6.6
-5.5
-1.4
-3.9
-1.9
6.5
-4.6
-7.2
0.4
-10.6
0.1
0.6
-5.9
-1.6
-4.3
18.2
-6.9
-3.6
21.6
-11.4
-2.0
2.6
9.6
6.1
7.6
2.8
-12.5
13.8
5.0
12.0
-5.9
3.1
8.3
2.0
2.4
-4.7
13.0
1.7
-3.2
-2.0
-3.7
11.8
-2.4
11.3
-6.6
-1.2
4.2
3.5
5.8
-2.9
7.7
9,0
2.8
4.0
-2.3
-0.5
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1.7
-0.4
-9.9
-6.6
10.0
6.7
3.1
8.5
-20.1
2.0
13.7
-5.5
-2.0
-4.8
10.1
1.5
9.2
-6.5
-8.5
11.0
13.9
-3.6
0.3
0.7
6.2
1.6
3.3
-2.2
1.4
3.3
-13.8
1.1
2.9
2.6
14.3
7.5
2.4
5.8
5.2
7.4
-0.9
7.0
12.0
0.0
12.2
3.2
-10.5
5.7
3.0
-2.8
-2.1
4.5
0.4
-1.7
7.3
4.5
4.1
-6.0
5.1
5.5
1.6
-2.9
0.0
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
3.3
10.3
-11.0
1.8
-12.8
1.7
1.3
16.5
1.9
-0.9
7.5
2.1
-1.4
5.5
7.4
7.6
1.4
2.2
5.6
1.5
3.4
5.1
0.2
1.1
3.2
1.4
0.7
-4.8
5.3
4.5
0.2
8.9
-6.5
3.9
3.1
9.4
4.7
-0.7
12.2
-17.4
-1.6
-1.3
1.8
10.4
0.4
3.6
4.3
1.9
3.1
0.4
3.9
2.8
4.3
2.3
-2.5
1.2
2.3
2.1
2.2
-8.7
5.6
-1.0
1.7
8.6
-2.6
3.6
2.1
2.5
4.0
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
-0.9
2.8
5.5
-14.6
8.2
10.1
-6.8
3.8
6.2
0.8
-0.3
-0.6
-3.4
7.9
3.3
3.5
0.1
8.2
3.0
5.0
-0.7
9.1
3.3
5. 1
1.5
3.7
-0.4
0.5
3.3
-0.5
6.7
4.4
5.6
2.9
3.9
0.6
-0.4
1.9
1.2
0.7
6.4
3.3
-2.1
5.7
1.5
8.1
3.8
11.6
0.6
0.0
7.6
0.6
-2.1
2.5
1.5
3.7
6.4
-0.2
2.2
5.1
2.3
3.9
1.1
4.1
3.2
3.7
1.2
2.7
2.5
1.4
7,4
2.6
2.5
2.3
1.0
4.3
3.5
1.5
2.8
2.4
1970...
1971...
-7.8
2.8
2.2
-6.2
1.3
6.4
-4.9
1.6
-5.1
4.5
-1.8
-0.7
1.9
-0.7
-6.2
-2.1
-6.2
2.0
-4.6
3.7
-0.6
5.2
-1.4
1.0
-3.9
1.8
-3.5
-0.3
0.0
-2.2
7. 1
48-C. PERCENT CHANGES IN MAN-HOURS IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS
(ANNUAL RATEi PERCENT)
1947...
1948...
1949...
-4.1
-1.1
0.9
-7.1
6.2
-1.5
5.2
-2.5
-2.6
3.2
-5.5
-1.6
0.2
3.4
-6.6
3.0
0.6
-3.9
4.9
-3.2
-0.2
-0.2
-4.6
14.3
-3.0
1.6
0.6
9.0
-4.8
6.5
3.5
5.8
-3.0
7.7
6.4
4.3
-10.8
6.2
6.3
1.8
3.3
-3.6
1.5
-2.6
-1.5
-4.0
13.1
-2.3
8.7
-4.1
-0.2
5.6
3.5
6.4
-6.2
6.8
9.7
2.3
3.6
-2.1
-0.3
4.5
0.3
-1.7
7.3
-5.5
4.2
7.1
-5.8
6.3
-4.9
5.2
3.1
-7.5
8.1
0.2
4.4
4.1
-6.0
5.1
7.4
3.5
-1.4
-4.4
8.5
9.0
6.2
1.3
-0.1
-10.3
6.8
-0.6
-1.9
-1.5
5.9
2.9
-2.5
5.8
-4.6
1.9
-6.0
7.2
5.5
1.4
-2.6
0.3
3.4
-0.9
4.6
1.0
1.8
3.0
-2.5
1.1
2.3
2.1
2.2
-3.1
2.4
0.0
3.1
2.1
-4.9
4.5
1.1
2.6
5.2
-8.6
5.6
-1.1
1.7
8.6
-4.6
-1.1
1.7
-3.9
7.3
3.1
0.4
5.1
2.2
4.3
-0.5
3.9
2.9
3.5
2.7
-2.2
2.7
1.1
2.3
2.4
-6.0
3.0
0.6
0.1
7.0
-1.4
2.5
2.4
2.0
4.1
3.6
4.0
2.5
4.4
2.0
3.3
4.4
3,2
3.8
1.6
3.7
1.2
2.7
2.5
1.3
4.6
2.5
1.8
2.6
2.0
5.0
2.2
3.8
1.8
0.7
7.4
2.6
2.5
2.3
1.0
6.2
3.3
-1.8
3.4
-2.1
4.5
6.2
-1.2
3.8
4.1
3.2
3.6
1.3
3.6
3.5
3.9
2.7
2.6
3.0
1.6
6.2
2.7
1.5
2.5
-0.1
4.4
3.8
1.0
3.2
2.3
-1.7
1.0
-2.0
-1.2
0.0
2.5
-1.1
0.7
-2.8
2.3
-3.7
-0.1
-0.4
0.1
3.6
2.4
0.5
-0.8
6.5
-2.2
13.1
14.9
17.4
11.9
10.0
-3.2
-1.9
-3.3
-2.0
0.5
-2.8
11.3
-6.6
5.7
3.0
-2.8
-2.1
6.7
6.3
-4.7
-0.3
1.7
1.9
2.5
1.2
-0.1
3.8
-3.5
-0.4
1.7
4.8
3.9
2.9
0.4
3.9
2.8
4.4
2.3
-1.6
6.1
1.0
2.3
2.8
3.9
5.3
-3.1
7.8
3.8
3.8
3.0
0.3
2.3
5.4
2.3
3.9
1.1
4.1
3.2
-0.5
0.6
-2.9
4.2
-3.9
1.8
-0.3
-9.0
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1.2
5.9
5.3
5.0
7.0
8.4
2.0
2.4
8.3
4.6
-1.9
2.5
16.2
3.2
-1.3
-0.6
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
3.8
2.6
0.7
-9.6
5.1
7.4
-0.9
-1.1
-10.4
7.4
7.4
2.3
0.0
-11.0
7.8
9.8
0.0
-2.7
-4.2
9.2
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
7.8
-2.0
1.2
0.8
2.1
0.4
3.6
4.3
1.9
3.0
1.2
-0.3
9.9
3.8
7.9
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
5.9
6.9
-0.2
1.4
3.2
3.7
6.4
-0,2
2.1
5.2
1970...
1971...
-1.4
0.6
-1.4
1.0
Since last shown her*
0.3
1.8
1.4
7.6
o!3
-6.8
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
-3.5
-0.3
-5.6
1.2
-3.8
-2.0
i have been revised beginning with 1968.
(NOVEMBER 1971)
106
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
IQ
Dec.
II Q
616. DEFENSE DEPARTMENT OBLIGATIONS INCURRED* TOTAL* EXCLUDING MILITARY ASSISTANCE1
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
III Q
IV Q
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
::':
...
...
...
1954...
2 120
2 952
1 899
2 568
2 837
2 874
2 689
2 945
2 579
2 602
2 150
3 378
2 247
3 701
2 298
2 817
1 180
3 014
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
2
3
3
3
3
2
3
3
3
3
2 613
4 248
3 254
4 091
3 739
3
3
3
4
3
180
515
543
078
620
2
3
3
4
3
449
240
020
251
569
2
4
2
4
3
2
3
3
3
3
379
447
017
818
729
1
4
2
3
3
"145
588
915
355
263
3
3
3
3
3
522
358
184
541
906
2
3
2
4
3
376
145
855
596
802
2 591
3 430
3 254
3 349
3 481
3 608
i960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
3 234
3 641
434
632
351
3 439
4 065
4 086
4 137
5 317
3
3
4
4
4
368
537
421
233
133
3 362
3 381
477
078
544
3
3
3
4
4
677
727
999
507
818
3 771
3 893
082
481
349
5 305
3 784
4 517
4 349
4 677
3
5
4
4
4
824
344
385
580
237
3 999
4 874
3 892
4 160
4 405
3
4
4
5
3
357
296
535
112
773
4
4
4
4
4
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
278
100
518
033
578
3
5
6
7
7
4 624
5 879
6 343
6 208
6 543
593
444
211
765
6 520
4
5
7
7
6
630
447
732
441
319
520
084
891
929
144
4 258
4 998
5 928
7 544
6 906
5
7
7
7
6
223
215
003
659
472
5
6
7
7
6
4 962
6 059
7 449
7 520
7 041
442
376
325
720
538
812
009
594
334
601
839
179
595
615
050
366
179
745
279
863
276
579
479
989
394
Annual
6 971
8 279
7 418
8 925
5 725
9 532
J
33 707
3 816
3 160
7
10
10
11
10
867
633
173
145
878
7
10
9
12
11
995
934
308
608
052
7
11
9
10
10
046
393
116
714
898
8
9
9
11
10
221
924
760
893
570
31
42
38
46
43
129
884
357
360
398
109
121
920
093
228
3
4
4
4
5
583
653
140
371
325
10
11
12
13
13
041
243
941
002
801
10
11
12
13
13
810
001
558
066
711
13
14
12
13
13
128
002
794
089
319
11
13
13
13
13
049
070
595
576
326
45
49
51
52
54
028
316
888
733
157
4 896
5 989
6 565
7 286
7 091
5
6
6
6
7
669
023
331
834
088
12
16
19
20
21
741
158
456
856
171
13
18
20
21
18
743
975
834
135
983
14
18
20
23
19
757
792
410
192
772
15
18
20
21
21
527
071
345
640
220
56
71
81
86
81
768
996
045
823
146
1970...
1971...
621. DEFENSE DEPARTMENT OBLIGATIONS INCURRED. PROCUREMENT2
(MILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
...
1954...
34
740
200
1 370
206
1 651
304
680
-518
1 560
-872
2 424
827
891
870
1
1
1
1
1
489
250
265
121
319
324
1 051
786
2 291
1 517
1
1
1
1
466
196
418
238
124
1
1
1
1
531
291
327
545
929
1
3
3
4
4
204
181
657
132
494
1
2
1
1
256
278
395
700
803
1
1
1
1
1
256
933
040
207
141
945
1 354
1 675
2 010
889
1
1
1
1
1
468
286
787
094
089
1
1
1
1
1
096
773
205
273
747
128
753
633
323
447
1
2
1
2
1
741
251
925
804
476
1
1
2
3
1
732
866
958
234
752
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
212
723
173
520
820
1
1
1
1
2
882
937
846
959
103
14
386
758
1 067
470
1 064
172
490
405
1 158
802
2 042
1 381
305
1 767
744
1 580
1 425
474
1 735
707
1 404
1 202
397
390
311
363
079
2
1
1
1
1
254
415
290
077
550
1
1
1
2
1
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1
1
1
1
320
278
140
637
330
625
781
1 407
1 232
1 362
1
1
1
1
514
739
117
669
371
1
1
1
1
861
118
347
619
398
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1
1
1
1
937
277
758
586
075
1
1
1
1
1
104
555
228
206
843
1
1
1
1
1
020
230
410
366
237
1
1
1
1
983
047
791
215
389
1
1
1
1
1
488
220
039
358
910
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1
1
2
2
2
005
639
296
360
088
1
2
2
2
700
736
140
865
075
1
1
1
1
1
355
9Q4
903
985
701
1
2
1
2
1
444
109
754
161
638
1
1
2
2
1
402
620
480
299
528
1
2
2
2
1
733
931
735
298
867
...
...
...
788
2 211
842
2 924
-8
3 891
459
798
664
538
063
1 571
4 043
2 893
5 241
4 204
1
5
2
3
3
091
409
799
416
391
2 321
3 538
3 531
5 074
3 570
6
16
12
18
15
442
788
887
269
228
3 061
4 062
4 396
4 158
4 155
3
3
4
3
4
868
657
141
936
378
4 716
5 392
4 092
4 039
3 438
3 509
4 413
4 667
4 377
3 725
15
17
17
16
15
154
524
296
510
696
3
5
6
7
5
4
6
6
6
4
100
144
524
537
716
4 601
5 870
6 516
8 361
4 675
4
5
6
6
5
16
22
26
28
21
588
884
133
885
045
060
279
339
210
864
827
591
754
777
790
9 814
1970...
1971...
648 . NEW ORDERS* DEFENSE PRODUCTS1
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
'.'.'.
:::
!!!
:::
...
•••
'.'.'.
6.38
5.50
6.44
6.17
...
:::
1968...
1969...
1.93
1.45
2.17
1.31
2.17
1.37
1.95
2.31
1.83
2.16
1.39
1.98
2.45
2.48
1.61
1.92
1.44
2.41
1.89
1.89
2.35
2.14
1.93
&!27
5.84
5.17
23.11
1970...
1971...
'ised beginning with 19(
(NOVEMBER 1971)
107
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Business cycle reference dates
Trough
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867 ....
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857. . .
.October 1860
April 1865
June 1869- . .
.October 1873
March 1882
(x)
30
22
46
18
34
36
(x)
(x)
18
8
32
T§
65
48
30
78
36
99
40
54
50
52
101
May 1885
April 1888
May. 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
.March 1887..
July 1890
January 1893
.December 1895
June 1899
September 1902
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912 ....
December 1914
March 1919
ju|y 1921
• May 1907 . • •
January 1910
January 1913
• August 1918 .
January 1920
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949 . . .
October 1926
.August 1929.
.May 1937
.February 1945
.November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
_45
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
"November 1970
July 1957 . .
.May 1960 ...
* November 1969
13
9
9
12
35
25
105
48
34
114
TxT
58
44
34
117
Average, all cycles:
27 cycles 1854-1970
11 cycles 1919-1970 .
•5 cycles, 1945-1970..
19
15
11
33
42
49
52
56
60
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles 1854-1961 .
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961 . .
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
...
.
.
TxT
*52
60
59
2
3
^46
48
42
5
6
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, Korean War, and Vietnam War), the postwar
contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
^Tentative and subject to revision as more information becomes available.
1
26
2
cycles, 1857-1969.
10 cycles, 1920-1969.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
108
3
4
5 cycles, 1945-1969.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
5
5
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Cyclical Indicators
Specific dates are listed under the reference cycle dates to which they correspond. Numbers in parentheses indicate leads (-) or
lags (+) of specific dates in relation to reference dates
Specific trough dates corresponding to expansions beginning inSeries
November 1970
February 1961
April 1958
August 1954
October 1949
LEADING INDICATORS
5.
12o
6.
10.
29.
31.
23.
19.
16.
17.
113.
810.
Avg. wkly. initial claims, State unemploy. insur. ( inv.) .
Index of net business formation
„ <,...<,
New orders, durable goods industries
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
New building permits, private housing
Change, mfg. and trade inventories
Industrial materials prices
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Corporate profits, after taxes (Q)
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
Change in consumer installment debt
Composite index of 12 leading indicators
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls .. 0
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
0 „0e
200. GNP in current dollars (Q)
205. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
47. Industrial production
52. Personal income
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
54. Sales of retail stores
„
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators
Sep.
Oct.
Dec.
Oct.
Oct.
Jan.
May
Jan.
June
IVQ
Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
'70 (-2) Dec. '60 (-2)
'70
(-1 Feb. '61
(0)
'70
(+1 Jan. '61 (-1)
'70
(-1 Jan. '61 (-1)
'70 (-1) May '61 (+3)
'70 (-10) Dec. '60 (-2)
'70 (-6) Dec. '60 (-2)
'71 (+2) Dec. '60 (-2)
'70 (-5} Oct. '60 (-4)
'70
(0) IQ
'61
(0)
'70 (+1) Feb. '61
(0)
'70
(0) Apr. '61
(+2)
'70 (-1) Dec. '60 (-2)
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
Apr.
Apr.
Dec.
IQ
Apr.
Mar.
Feb.
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'57
'58
'58
'58
'58
(0)
(0)
(0)
(-3)
(-1)
(-2)
(0)
(0)
(-4)
(-2)
(0)
(-1)
(-2)
Apr.
Sep.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Sep.
Nov.
Oct.
Sep.
IVQ
Mar.
Mar.
Nov.
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'54
'54
'53
(-4)
(+1)
(-5)
(-5)
(-5)
(-11)
(-9)
(-10)
(-11)
(-9)
(-5)
(-5)
(-9)
Apr.
Oct.
July
June
Apr.
Jan.
Apr.
June
June
IIQ
May
Jan.
May
'49 (-6)
'49
(0)
'49
(-3)
'49
(-4)
'49 (-6)
'49 (-9)
'49 (-6)
'49 (-4)
'49
(-4)
'49 (-5)
'49 (-5)
'49 (-9)
-49 (-5)
Nov.
Dec.
NSC
IVQ
Nov.
NSC
Nov.
NSC
Nov.
'70
(0)
'70 (+1)
May
July
IQ
IQ
Apr.
Feb.
Mar.
Mar.
Apr.
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
(+1)
(+3)
(-2)
(-2)
(0)
(-2)
(-1)
(-1)
(0)
Aug.
Sep.
IIQ
IIQ
Apr.
Apr.
Aug.
Jan.
Aug.
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
(0)
(+1)
(-3)
(-3)
(-4)
(-4)
(0)
(-7)
(0)
Oct.
Oct.
IVQ
IIQ
Oct.
July
Oct.
NSC
Oct.
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
(0)
(0)
(+1)
(-5)
(0)
(-3)
(0)
'49
(0)
Aug.
IIIQ
Aug.
Apr.
Aug.
IIQ
Aug.
'58 (+4)
'58 (+4)
'58 (+4)
'59 (+12)
'58 (+4)
'58 (+1)
'58 (+4)
Oct.
IVQ
Oct.
June
Oct.
IQ
Oct.
'54
'54
'54
' 55
'54
'55
'54
(+2)
(+3)
(+2)
(+10 )
(+2)
(+6)
(+2)
Nov.
IVQ
Dec.
July
Aug.
IQ
Dec.
'49 (+1)
'49 (+1)
'49 (+2)
'50 (+9)
'49 (-2)
'50 (+4)
'49
(+2)
'70
(0)
'70
(0)
Feb.
May
IVQ
IQ
Feb.
NSC
Jan.
Apr.
Feb.
NSC
NSC
NSC
NSC
Jan. '71
(+2)
NA
May '71 (+6)
July
IQ
June
NSC
NSC
IVQ
July
'70
'70
(0)
(0)
'61
(0)
'61 (+3)
'60 (-3)
'61
(0)
'61
(0)
'61
'61
'61
(-1)
(+2)
(0)
LAGGING INDICATORS
44.
61.
71.
62.
72.
67.
830.
Unemploy. rate 15 weeks and over (inverted)
Business expend., new pia s • and equip. (Q)
Book value, mfg. and trade i ^ventories. . . » . < »
Labor cost per unit of output mfg.
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Bank rates on short-term bus. loans (Q)
Composite index of 6 lagging indicators
'61 (+5)
'61
(0)
'61
(+4)
'61 (+9)
'61 (+5)
Specific peak dates corresponding to contractions beginning in»
Series
November 1969
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg. workweek prod, workers mfg .
.......«• Oct.
5. Avg. wkly. initial claims, State unemploy. insur. (inv.). Jan.
Feb.
12. Index of net business formation
Sep.
6. New orders, durable goods industries
Jan.
10. Contracts and orders plant and equipment
Jan.
29. New building permits, private housing
Oct.
31. Change, mfg. and trade inventories
Feb.
23. Industrial materials prices
Dec.
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
IVQ
16. Corporate profits, after taxes (Q)
Feb.
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
Oct.
113. Change in consumer installment debt
Sep.
810. Composite index of 12 leading indicators
July 1957
May 1960
July 1953
November 1948
'68
'69
'69
'69
'70
'69
'69
'70
'68
'68
'69
'68
'69
(-13)
(-10)
(-9)
(-2)
(+2)
(-10)
(-1)
(+3)
(-11)
(-12.)
(-9)
(-13)
(-2)
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Sep.
Nov.
Dec.
Nov.
July
IIQ
Apr.
Aug.
Jan.
'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'58
'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'60
(-13)
(-13)
(-13)
(-13)
(-8)
(-18)
(-5)
(-6)
(-10)
(-12)
(-13)
(-9)
(-4)
Nov.
Sep.
Mar.
Aug.
Nov.
Feb.
Apr.
Dec.
July
IVQ
Feb.
Mar.
Nov.
'55 (-20)
'55 (-22)
'55 (-28)
'56 (-11)
'56 (-8)
'55 (-29)
'56 (-15)
'55 (-19)
'56 (-12)
'55 (-20)
'57 (-5)
'55 (-28)
'56 (-8)
Mar.
Nov.
Sep.
Jan.
Sep.
Nov.
Jan.
Feb.
Jan.
IIQ
Jan.
Dec.
Jan.
'53
'52
'52
'53
'52
'52
'53
'51
'53
'53
'51
'52
'53
'70
'69
(+4)
(-9)
'60
'60
'60
'60
'60
(-1)
(-3)
(0)
(-3)
(-4)
(-4)
(-4)
(+1)
(+1)
(-5)
(+1)
(-5)
(+1)
(+1)
June
June
IIQ
IIQ
July
Oct.
July
Mar.
July
'53
(-1)
'53
(-1)
'53 (-2)
'53
(-2)
'53
(0)
'53 (+3)
'53
(0)
'53 (-4)
'53
(0)
Sep.
NA
IVQ
IVQ
July
Oct.
Aug.
NSC
Oct.
(-2)
(-4)
(-1)
(-3)
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'48
'60
'60
'60
Mar.
Mar.
IIIQ
IIIQ
Feb.
Aug.
Feb.
Aug.
Aug.
'48
'48
'48
'48
'48
(0)
(0)
(-4)
(-1)
(-3)
'48
(-1)
'60
'60
'60
'61
(0)
(0)
(+2)
(+9)
'59
'60
(-6)
(0)
Sep.
IIQ
Sep.
Apr.
Sep.
IVQ
Sep.
'57
(+2)
'57 (-2)
'57
(+2)
'58
(+9)
'57 (+2)
'57 (+4)
'57
(+2)
Oct.
IIIQ
Sep.
Mar.
Aug.
IVQ
Sep.
'53
'53
'53
'54
'53
'53
'53
(+3)
(+1)
(+2)
(+8)
(+1)
(+4)
(+2)
Jan.
IVQ
Feb.
Nov.
Aug.
IIQ
Nov.
'49 (+2)
'48
(0)
'49
(+3)
'48
(0)
'48 (-3)
'49 (+6)
'48
(0)
(-4) Dec.
(-8) Jan.
(-10) NA
(-6) Aug.
(-10) June
(-8) Oct.
(-6) July
(-29)Jan.
(-6) June
(-2) IIQ
(-30)June
(-7) Mar.
(-6) June
'47 (-11)
'47 (-22)
'48 (-3)
'48 (-5)
'47 (-13)
'48
(-4)
'48 (-10)
'48 (-5)
'48 (-6)
'48
(-5)
'48 (-8)
'48
(-5)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41.
43.
200.
205.
47.
52.
56.
54.
820.
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Unemployment rate, total (inverted) *
GNP in current dollars (Q)
GNP in 1958 dollars (Q).
Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retail stores
Composite index of 5 coincident indicators
'69
'69
(-3)
(-2)
'70
(+9)
'69
(+1)
Apr.
Feb.
IIQ
IQ
Jan.
NSC
Jan.
Apr.
Feb.
NSC
NSC
NSC
NSC
Sep. '70 .(+10)
IQ
'70 (+3)
Aug. '70 (+9)
May
IIQ
July
Feb.
NSC
IVQ
May
Mar.
Feb.
NSC
III
Sep.
NSC
Aug.
NSC
Dec.
LAGGING INDICATORS
44.
61.
71.
62.
72.
67.
830.
Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over (inverted)
Business expend., new plant and equip. (Q)
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories
Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Bank rates on short-term bus. loans (Q)
Composite index of 6 lagging indicators
NOTE: Specific peaks and troughs mark the dates when individual series reach their cyclical turning points, whereas reference peak and trough dates indicate the cyclical
turning points in business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 26 series on the NBER "short list" and three composite indexes, the specific peaks and troughs
corresponding to post-World War II business cycles. The determination of specific turning points is largely a subjective matter, and honest disagreement may exist among individual analysts. Therefore, the dates listed above should not be interpreted as being absolute. See Measuring Business Cycles by Burns and Mitchell (NBER: 1946)for
further information on dating specific peaks and troughs.
NA = Not available. This indicates that data necessary to determine a turning point are not available.
NSC = No specific cycle. This indicates that no specific turning point corresponding to the indicated reference date is discernible.
Q = Quarterly series. Leads and lags are measured from middle of quarter to reference date.
109
G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
HOW TO READ CYCLICAL (RECOVERY) COMPARISON CHARTS
These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of the most recent
business contraction (beginning with the cyclical peak in November 1969) and the
recovery and subsequent expansion (beginning with the business cycle trough in
November 1970).
To set the current cyclical movements into historical perspective,
cyclical paths over generally similar historical periods are shown.
The graphic
presentations of the data for the selected period are superimposed according to a
special chart design.
The explanatory statements below provide a key to this
design.
Arabic number indicates latest
calendar month of
data plotted ("7"=
July); Roman number indicates
latest quarter for
which data are
slotted ("ill" third quarter).
This scale shows
deviations (percent or unit differences) from
reference peak
levels. For units
rot measure see
comparison table
on the chart.
1. The objective of the chart is to compare
the pattern of the current recovery with
historical recovery patterns to facilitate
critical assessment of the amplitude, duration, and vigor of the indicators' current
movements.
Series number, series title
2. The vertical line represents
reference
trough dates.
The current recovery phase,
beginning with the business cycle trough in
November 1970,
and the selected historical
recovery phases, beginning with the troughs
in October 1949, August 1954, April 1958,
and February 1961 are presented graphically
so that their trough dates are placed along
this vertical line.
This scale shows
actual series
units (See current
data table in
chart for the unit
of measure) and
applies only to
the current business cycle (heavy
solid line).
3. The horizontal line represents the leve^
of the data at the beginning point of the
most recent business contraction, November
1969,
the business cycle peak that preceded
the most recent trough.
It also represents
data levels at other business cycle peaks
(November 1948,
July 1953, July 1957, and
May I960) that precede the troughs used for
this analysis:
The peak levels, which also
are called recovery levels—i.e., the levels
at which recoveries from the preceding contraction are achieved—are aligned along the
horizontal line for each business cycle
depicted.
4. To facilitate comparison, deviations from
the previous peak level are computed and
plotted for each cycle (consisting of the
contraction and portions of the subsequent
recovery and expansion).
These deviations
from the peak levels may 1-e either percent
changes or differences in original series units
depending upon the nature of the time series.
For most series percent changes are used.
For series containing negative values (such
as percent changes) and series measured in
percent units (such as interest rates) deviations are shown in terms of differences. The
same type of series could be, and in many
instances are, plotted as actual data in
original series units rather than deviations
from preceding peak levels.
This table shows
actual data for
the most recent
peak and trough,
and for the selected time periods thereafter.
-12
Months from ref.
troughs
11/69
Dates relative
to current
trough Nov. '70
This comparison table shows deviations (percent or unit
differences) from the preceding reference peak levels or the
actual data for specified number of months or quarters after
reference trough dates. The median is determined as described
in statement 7.
Symbols it and Q mark levels of the 1949 and 1954 recoveries,
respectively, at selected time periods. (See statement 7.)
5. The influence of excessive
fluctuations in series with MCD of
is modified by using the average
months centered on the peak as the
peak level.
irregular
3 or more
for the 3
reference
60 For series that move counter to movements
in general business activity (e.g., the unemployment rate), an inverted scale is used;
i.e., declines in the data are shown as upward movements in the plotted lines, and increases in data as downward movements in
plotted lines.
7. For each chart, four curves and two sets
of points are shown.
One curve describes
the current recovery (heavy solid line:^*«») .
To facilitate historical comparison and avoid
overcrowding on the chart, the median pattern of the four post-World War II recoveries
(those beginning in 1949, 1954,
1958, and
110
Designations:
1'Coincident,"
r'Leading," "Lagging," and "Unclassified" indicate the NBER
timing classification for the
series.
This scale mea'sures time in
months before and
after reference
trough dates. The
negative side indicates contractions, the positive side indicates recoveries
and expansions.
This time scale
shows calendar
months or quarters
corresponding to
the current contraction, recovery,
and expansion.
(g)= Current business cycle (reference) peak
© = Current business cycle (reference) trough
1961)
is shown as another curve (heavy broken line:———). The curve representing the
historical median pattern passes through the
median points of the four individual recovery
paths. (Median is defined here as the average of the two middle points). The two most
recent individual recoveries
(those beginning in 1958 and 1961 are also shown as plotted lines (solid line:——, and knotted line:
11 t t 9, respectively).
The two sets of
points display the relative levels for the
remaining two recoveries (those beginning in
1949 (if) and 1954 (Q)) at four points in time
(trough date, 12 and 24 months after trough
date, and at the same time point as the latest
month plotted).
8. The business cycle peaks and troughs used
throughout the recovery comparison charts
are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research and are shown below.
The Roman numerals in parentheses indicate
the peak and trough quarters used for timing
quarterly data:
Peak
Nov. '48 (IVQ'48)
July '53 (IIIQ'53)
July '57 (IIIQ'57)
May '60 (IIQ'60)
Nov. '69 (IVQ'69)
Trough
Oct.
Aug.
Apr.
Feb.
Nov.
'49
'54
'58
'61
'70
(IVQ'49)
(IIIQ'54)
(IIQ'58)
(IQ'61)
(IVQ'70)
G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued
TTT
I III
^,-Ar '4
810. Composite index of
12 leading indicators,
reverse trend adjusted
1
Deviations
from
preced.
peak
-O'54
/-
S.X
Leading
Actual
data
Deviations
from
preced.
peak
for
current
cycle
205 GNP in 1958 dollars
Percent
+16
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
Percent
*'49
+12
•135
•800
+12
•130
+8
•775
+8
•125
+4
+4
•750
•120
0
•725
•115
Current data
(Ann. rate,
Ml. dol.)
-4
• 110
Current data
(Index: 1967=100)
1949
19541958
1961
1970
Median
Feb.'71
Mar.'71
Apr.'71
May '71
June'71
July'71
Aug.'71
Sep.'71
Oct.'71
23.9
21.0
14.8
10.7
9.6
17.9
• 700
-8
119.8
122.1
12^.0
125.1
125.0
126.8
126.8
127.0
128.7
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
IQ'71
IIQ'71
IIIQ'71
10.4
5.2
2.9
4.5
2.8
4.8
729.7
738.4
745. £
**'49
*
Percent
+8
Percent
820. Composite index of
five coincident indicators
• 120
47. Industrial production
I Coincident
\
+4
+12
• 115
• 135
+8
•110
•130
+4
• 125
•105
0
•120
-8
-4
•100
•115
-8
Current data
(Index: 1967=100)
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
-12
•110
Current data
(Index: 1967=100)
-12
Nov.'70® 117.4
Feb.1?! 121.4
Mar.'71 122.0
Apr.'71 122.7
May '71 123.6
June'71 125.7
July'71 124.3
Aug.'71 124.2
Sep.'71 125.0
Oct.'71 125.4
11.3
3.4
2.6
4.8
2.9
4.1
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
Feb.'71
Mar.'71
Apr.'71
May '71
June' 71
July'71
Aug.'71
Sep.'71
Oct.'71
"16.1
3.9
2.5
4.6
-3.6
4.2
105.7
105.5
106.2
107.0
107.2
106.1
105.3
106.1
106.3
II
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24 ,
11/69
5/70
11/70
5/71
11/71
5/72
11/72 •
• Months from ref. •
troughs
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Dates relative
to current
trough Nov. '70
11/69
5/70
11/70
5/71
11/71
5/72
11/72
m
111
G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued
43o Unemployment rote, total, percent,
inverted scale
(actual data plotted rather than
deviations from peak levels)
E
Deviations
from
preced.
peak
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
•4
•6
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
Feb.'71
Mar.'71
Apr.'71
May.'71
June' 71
July'71
Aug.'71
Sep.'71
19.6
7.4
5.4
2.8
19.3
6.4
32,850
33,164
33,578
33,502
33,827
33,688
34,655
35,155
Percent
*'49
+40
190 Stock prices, 500 common stocks
|
Leading
•130
\
%y
/-" ^
781 Co Consumer price index, all items,
percent changes over 6-month spans
" Median
(actual data plotted rather than
deviations from peak levels)
+30
• +7
• +6
\Unclassi fied\
•120
+20
•110
+10
•100
• +3
0
- 90
-10
Current data
(Index; 1941-43=100)
-20
• 70
1
Nov. 70 084.28
Feb.'71 97.11
99.60
103.04
101.64
99.72
99.00
97.24
99o40
97.29
Current data
54 (Ann. rate,
percent)
-30
Nov.'70(T)4.7
Feb.'71 4.8
Mar.'71 4.1
Apr.'71 3.6
May '71
4.1
June' 71 4.0
July'71 3.9
Aug.'71 4.3
Sep.'71 4.3
Oct.'71 4.0
I Ii
-12
11/69
-6
5/70
0
11/70
+6
5/71
+12
11/71
•"•November estimate (*••) includes weeks
ended November 3, 10, and 17.
112
+18
5/72
m
1
Months from ref. {
troughs
-12
-6
Dates relative
to current
trough Nov. '70
11/69
5/70
0
+6
11/70 5/71
I
+12
+18
+24
11/71
5/72
11/72
•0
INDEX
Series Finding Guide
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
descriptions
data
(issue date) (issue date)
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
9,21,38
9,21,38,55
9
9
9
5,64,70
5,64,70,85
5,64
5,64
5,64
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'71 Oct. '69
'71 Oct. '69
'71 Oct. '69
'71 Oct. '69
'71 Oct. '69
10
10
10
10
5,64
5,64
5,64
5,64
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'71 Oct. '69
'71 Oct. '69
'71 Oct. '69
'71 Oct. '69
10
5,64
Aug.
Oct. '69
10
5,64
Aug. '71
'71
Oct.
'69
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Total current dollars
Total constant dollars
Durable goods current dollars
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars
236 Nondurable goods current dollars
237. Services, current dollars
11
11
11
11
11
11
11
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
12
12
12
12
12
12,26
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65,73
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'71 Oct. '69
'71 Oct. '69
'71 Oct. '69
'71 Oct. '69
'71 Oct. '69
'71 Oct. '69
13,46
13,48
13,48
5,66
5,66
5,66
Aug. '71 May '69
Aug. '71 May '69
Aug. '71 May '69
it
14,52
14
5,66
5,66
5,66,83
5,66
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'71
'71
'71
'71
15
5,66
Aug.
'71 Oct. '69
15
15
5,66
5,66
Aug.
Aug.
'71 Oct. '69
'71 Oct. '69
15
5,66
Aug.
'71 Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
»69
'69
'69
'69
'69
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
Gross private domestic investment, total
Nonresidential fixed investment
Nonresidential structures . ...
Producers' durable equipment
Residential structures
Change in business inventories
A5. Foreign Trade
250. Net exports of goods and services
252 Exports of soods and services
253 Imports of goods and services
A6. Gov. Purchases, Goods and Services
260.
262.
264.
266.
Federal, State, and local governments
Federal Government
National defense
State and local governments
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
270. Final sales, durable goods
271. Change in business inventories, durable
goods
274. Final sales, nondurable goods
275. Change in business inventories,
nondurable goods
'69
*200.
*205.
*47.
*52
53.
*56.
57.
*54
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj . ...
Net interest
16
16
16
16
16
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,67
5,67
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
17
17
5,67
5,67
Aug.
Aug.
'71 Oct. '69
'71 Oct. '69
17
17
17
5,67
5,67
5,67
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'71 Oct. '69
'71 Oct. '69
'71 Oct. '69
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Industrial production
Personal income
Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr
Manufacturing and trade sales.
Final sales
Sales of retail stores
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
*1.
21.
2.
*5.
3.
Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
18,36
Avg. wkly. overtime hrs., prod, workers, mfg . .18
18
Accession rate, manufacturing
Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance
18,36
Layoff rate, manufacturing
18
50 Number of job vacancies, mfg
46. Help-wanted advertising
*41.
42
*43
45
40.
*44.
Employees on nonagri. payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
Unemployment rate total
Av2 weekly insured unemploy rate
Unemployment rate, married males
Unemoiov. rate. 15 weeks and over
...
19
19
19
19,38
19
20,38
20
20
20,39
6,68
6,68
6,68
6,68
6,68
Oct.
Aug.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'71 Aug.
'70
'71 Aug.
'71 June
'71 Aug.
6,68
6,68
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
Apr.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Apr.
'70
'71 Aug.'68#
'71 Aug. '68
'71
'71
'71 June '69
'71
'71
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
'68
'68
'69
'68
6,64,70
Aug. '71
6,64,70,85 Aug. '71
6,70,94
Oct. '71
6,70
Aug. '71
6,70
Aug. '71
6,70
Sep. '71
6,70
Aug. '71
6,70
June '71
Oct.
Oct.
Nov.
July
July
Feb.
July
'69
'69
'68
'68
'68
'69
'68
*12.
13.
*6
80
*10.
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
New orders durable soods industries
Construction contracts, total value
Contracts and orders, plant, equipment
23,36
23
23,36
23
23,36
6,71
6,71
6,71
6,71
6,71
June '71
Apr. '71
Sep. '71 Sep.
'68
Sep.
'71
'68
11.
24.
9.
28.
*29.
New capital appropriations, manufacturing. . 24
New orders, producers' cap. goods indus. . .24
Constr. contracts, com. and indus
24
Private housing starts, total
24
New bldg. permits private housing
24,36
6,71
6,71
6,72
6,72
6,72
Sep.
Sep.
July
June
Apr.
'71
'71 Sep.
'71
'71
'71 Apr.
96.
97.
*61.
69.
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries . .25
Backlog of capital approp., manufacturing. . 25
25,39,40
Business expend., new plant and equip
Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures.
25
6,72
6,72
7,72.78
Sep. '71 Sep.
Sep. '71
July '71 Nov.
'68
7,72
Sep.
'71 Sep.
'68#
7,65,73
7,73
7,73
7,73
7,73
Aug.
Sep.
June
Sep.
June
'71 Oct.
'71 Feb.
'71
'71 Sep.
'71
'69
'69
7,73
7,73
7,73
7,73
June
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
'71
'71 Sep. '68
'71 Feb. '69
'71 Sep. '68
28,37
28,37
28,37
7,74
7,74
7,74
July '71 Apr. '69
Nov. '71 May '69
Aug. '71 July '68
28
28
28,37
7,74
7,74
7,74
Aug. '71 July '68
Nov. '71 Mar. '69
Oct. '71 Nov. '68
29
29,54
7,74
7,74,84
Oct. '71
July '71
29
29,39
7,74
7,74
Aug. '71 July '68
!
Oct. '71 Nov. 68
Sep.
'68
'69
«68
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
37.
20.
26
32.
25.
*71.
65.
12,26
26,37
.26
26
26
Purchased materials, higher inventories . .
Change in materials, supplies inventories. .
Buying policy production materials
Vendor performance, slower deliveries
27
Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods
27
27,39
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories
Book value, mfrs.' inven. finished goods. . 27
'68
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
*23
*19
*16
22.
15
*17
55.
58.
68.
Industrial materials prices
Stock prices 500 common stocks
Corporate profits after taxes
Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries
Profits oer dollar of sales mfs
Ratio price to unit labor cost mfg.
Wholesale prices, indus. commodities
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
June '69
June '69
B6. Money and Credit
85 Change in monev suDDlv (Ml)
102.' Change in money supply plus time deposits
at comm banks (M2)
•••
103. Change in money sup. plus time dep. at'
A9. Saving
290. Gross saving, private and government
292 Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
9,21,38
9,21,38,55
21,38,62
21,38
21
22,38
22
22,38
B3. Fixed Capital Investment
*62
A8. National Income Components
280. Compensation of employees
282.
284.
286.
288.
Tables
B2> Production, Income, Consumption, Trade
A 2. National and Personal Income
220. National income, current dollars
222. Personal income, current dollars
224. Disposable personal income, current dol
225. Disposable personal income, constant dol
226. Per capita disposable personal income,
current dol lars
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
constant dollars
240.
241.
242.
243.
244.
245.
Charts
Historical
Series
descriptions
data
(issue date) (issue date)
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS~Con.
Al. Gross National Product
200. GNP in current dollars
205. GNP in 1958 dollars
210. Implicit price deflator
215. Per capita GNP in current dollars
217 Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
230.
231.
232
233.
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
33 Change in mortgage debt . .
*113 Chanse in consumer installment debt
112. Change in business loans
110. Total private borrowing
14. Liabilities of business failures
39. ' Delinquency rate, installment loans
93. Free reserves
114. Treasury bill rate
116. Corporate bond yields
115. Treasury bond yields
117. Municipal bond yields
66. Consumer installment debt
*72. Com. and industrial loans outstanding
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans
118. Mortgage yields, residential
"30
7,75
Oct.
'71
30
7,75
Oct.
'71
30
30,37
7,75
7,75
7,75
Oct. '71
June '71
June '71 July '64
30
31
31
31
7,75
7,75
7,75
7,75
June
Nov.
June
Apr.
'71
'71
'71
'71
32
32
32
32
7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76
June
June
June
June
'71
'71
'71
'71
32
33
33,39
33,39
33
7,76
8,76
8,76
8,76
8,76
June
June
June
Nov.
July
'71 July '64
'71
'71
'71
'71 July '64
34
6,77
Feb.
'71
35
34
34
35
35
35
35
35
77
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
6,77
6.77
Feb.
Feb.
Aug.
June
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
June
'71 Aug. '70
'71 Nov. '68
'70 Nov. '68
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
... 30
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj ...
811. 12 leading indicators, prior to reverse
trend adjustment .
...
820. 5 coincident indicators
830. 6 lagging indicators
813 Marginal employment adjustments
814. Capital investment commitments
815. Inventory investment and purchasing
816. Profitability.
..
817. Sensitive financial flows
July «64
July '64
July «64
July '64
July '64
Aug. '70
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
113
Series Finding Guide —Continued
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Cl. Aggregate Series
Bus. expend., new plant and equip
Manufacturers' sales, total
Mfrs ' inventories book value
Condition of rnfrs ' inventories
Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity
25,39,40 72,78
41
78
"78
41
41
78
41
78
420.
425.
430
435
Household income compared to year ago
Probability of change, household income
New cars purchased by households . .
Index of consumer sentiment
42
42
42
42
78
78
78
78
Jan.
Jan.
D61. Bus. expend, new plant and equip
D440 New orders manufacturing
43
43
43
43
43
D450
D460
D462
D464
44
44
44
44
44
Sep.
Sep.
Jan.
Jan.
July '71
'71
'71
'71
'71
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
68
68
68
68
68
'71
'71
July '71
Jan. '71
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
68
68
68
68
79
79
79
79
79
July
July
July
July
July
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
68
68
68
68
68
79
79
79
79
79
July
July
July
July
July
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
68
68
68
68
68
781.
782.
783.
784
Consumer price
Consumer price
Consumer price
Consumer price
index, all items
index, food
index commodities
index services
750.
58.
751.
752.
Wholesale
Wholesale
Wholesale
Wholesale
index,
index
index,
index,
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trade
'71
'71
May '69
May '69
45
45
8,80
8,80
Oct.
Oct.
45
45
45
8,80
8,80
8,80
Oct.
13,46
46
46
8,81
8,81
8,81
46
46
46
8,81
8,81
8,81
47
81
Aug.
'70
May '69
47
47
Aug.
Aug.
'70
'70
May '69
May '69
13,48
13,48
81
81
81
81
81
Aug.
Aug.
'70
'70
May '69
May '69
48
48
81
81
Aug.
Aug.
'70
'70
May '69
May '69
July '71 Aug. '68 #
July '71
'71 May '69
D2. Balance of Payments and Components
519. Balance on current account and long term
521 Net liouiditv balance
532. Liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign
official agencies
534. U.S. official reserve assets
535. Allocations of SDR's
252. Exports of goods and services
253. Imports of goods and services
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted
540. Investment income, military sales, and
services exports
541. Foreigners' investment income, military
expend., and services, imports
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
543. Income on foreign investments in U.S
48
81
Aug.
'70
May '69
48
49
49
81
82
82
Aug.
Sep.
Sep.
'70
'70
'70
May '69
May '69
May '69
545.
544.
547.
546.
548.
549.
Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
Receipts from foreigners in U.S
U.S. military expenditures abroad
Military sales to foreigners
Receipts, transportation and services
Payments transportation and services
49
49
49
49
49
49
82
82
82
82
82
82
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
'70
«70
'70
'70
'70
'70
May
May
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Foreign direct investments in U.S
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
Govt. grants and capital transactions
Banking and other capital transactions
50
50
50
50
50
50
82
82
82
82
82
82
Sep. '70
Sep. «70
Sep. '70
Sep. '70
Oct. '70
Oct. '70
May
May
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
8,83
8,83
8,83
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Nov.
Nov.
Sep.
Nov.
Apr.
560.
565.
564.
570.
575.
D3. Federal Government Activities
600.
601.
602.
264.
616.
621.
647.
648.
625.
Fed. balance, nat'l income and prod. acct. . . 51
Fed. receipts, nat'l income and prod. acct.. . 51
Fed. expend., nat'l income and prod, acct. . . 51
National defense purchases
14,52
Defense Dept. obligations, total
52
Defense Dept. obligations, procurement .... 52
New orders, defense products industries . . . 52
New orders, defense products
52
Military contract awards in U.S
52
8,66,83
8,83
8,83
8,83
8,83
8,83
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
114
price
price
price
price
53,61
53
53
53
54
all commodities
mfd. goods. .
29,54
proc. foods, feeds . . 54
54
farm products.
8,84
84
84
84
8,84
84,74
84
84
June
June
June
June
'71
'71
' 71
'71
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
June
July
June
June
'71
'71
'71
'71
June
June
June
June
'69
'69
'69
' 69
'71
Oct.
'69
'69
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
C2. Diffusion Indexes
515. Balance on goods, services, and remittances.
Tables
D4. Price Movements
61.
410
412
414
416.
500 Merchandise trade balance .
502 Exports exclud ins military aid
506. Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor
vehicles
508 Export orders nonelectrical machinery
512 General imports
Charts
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
D. OTHER KEY INDlCATORS-Con.
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Level of inventories mfg. and trade
Sellins prices mfs and trade
Selling prices manufacturing
Selling prices wholesale trade
Current issue
(page numbers)
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
«71
July' 68 #
July' 68 #
July' 68 #
Oct. '69
Sep.'68#
El.
Actual and Potential GNP
205. Actual GN? in 1958 dollars
206. Potential GNP in 1958'dollars
207. GNP gap (potential less actual)
9,21,38,55 6,64,70,85 Aug.
85
55
5,85
55
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing . . .56
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade . 56
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
56
durables
853. Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer
goods
56
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
personal income
57
860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to
57
persons unemployed
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm. . 57
856. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers . . .57
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. . . 57
857. Vacancy rate, total rental housing
57
8,86
8,86
Jan.
Oct.
'71
'71
Feb.
8,86
Oct.
'71
Sep. '68
8,86
Oct.
'71
Nov.
8,86
Aug.
'71
July '68
8,86
8,86
8,86
Nov.
Apr.
'71
'71
June ' 68
June '68
8,86
8,86
Oct.
Nov.
'71
'71
June ' 68
'68
E3. Diffusion Indexes
Dl.
D6.
Dll.
D34.
D19.
D23.
D5.
Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
New orders, durable goods industries
New capital appropriations mfg.
Profits, manufacturing
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Industrial materials prices
Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance. . .
58
58
58
58
58
58
58
87,89
87,89
87
87
87
87,90
88
Oct. '71
Nov. '71
Sep. '71
Apr. '71
Nov. '71
Jan. '71
Nov. '71
D41.
D47.
D58.
D54.
Employees on nonagri. payrolls
Industrial production
Wholesale prices manufactured goods
Sales of retail stores
59
59
59
59
88,90
88,91
88,92
88,92
Oct.
Nov.
Jan.
Jan.
'71
'71
'71
'71
Aug.
Aug.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Sep.
'71
'71
'70
'70
'70
'70
'71
May '69
Apr. '69
June '69
June '69
E5. Rates of Change
200
205.
820.
48.
47.
55.
GNP in current dollars
GNP in constant dollars
Composite index of 5 coincident indicators .
Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
Index of industrial production
Index of whsle. prices, indus. commodities .
60
60
60
60
60
60
60
'69
'69
'68
Aug.'68#
Nov. '68
June '69
May '69
Oct.
Oct.
Nov.
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
781.
133.
132.
135.
136.
138.
137.
United States
Canada
United Kingdom
West Germany
France
Japan
Italy
F2. Industrial Production Indexes
47. United States
123.
122.
126.
125.
128.
121.
127.
Canada
United Kingdom
France
West Germany
Japan
OECD European countries
Italy
F3. Stock Price Indexes
19. United States
143. Canada
142. United Kingdom ...
146. France
145. West Germany
148. Japan
147. Italy
....
June '71 May '69
53,61
61
61
61
61
61
61
93
93
93
93
93
93
93
Apr. '71
Apr. '71
Apr. '71
Apr. '71
Apr. »71
Apr. '71
21,38,62
62
62
62
62
62
62
62
93
93
93
93
94
94
94
94
Oct.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
Nov.
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
May '69
'68
Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the six sections, series are listed in numerical order.
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates
monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of the
month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The alphabetic-numeric designations following the series titles indicate all charts and tables in which the series may be found. See the
table of contents for chart and table titles and Series Finding Guide
for page numbers. The series in section B preceded by an asterisk
(*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, chart
B8. Unless otherwise indicated, all series which require seasonal
adjustment have been adjusted by their source.
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number
and are obtained from the same sources.
244. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential structures
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all industries (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4, B4)
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
253. Imports of goods and services (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A5, D2)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)
A National Income and Product
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al, B2, B8, E5)
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics (Al, B2, B8, El, E5)
210. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al)
215. Per capita gross national product in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(Al)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6, D3)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and services,
total (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6)
270. Final sales, durable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
*5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M). -- Department of Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, E3)
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)
8. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). -- McGrawHill Information Systems Company. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(B3)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M). -- McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(B3)
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census thru May 1970 and by source agency thereafter.
(B3, B8)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (Q). --The Conference Board
(B3, E3)
*12. Index of net business formation (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3, B8)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau
of the Census
(Al)
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
220. National income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
274. Final sales, nondurable goods, (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
222. Personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics '
(A2)
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods (Q). --Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). - Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
280. Compensation of employees (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A8)
225. Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
282. Proprietors' income (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A8)
226. Per capita disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2)
284. Rental income of persons (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(A8)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q) -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2)
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A8)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
288. Net interest (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A8)
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M). -- Standard and
Poor's Corporation
(B5, B8, E3, F3)
290. Gross saving -- private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B4)
292. Personal saving (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A9)
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(A3)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A3)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods except
automobiles, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A3)
234. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in
current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A3)
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
240. Gross private domestic investment, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
241. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
296. Capital consumption allowances, corporate and noncorporate
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A9)
298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q). - Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A9)
B Cyclical Indicators
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
(A4)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable
equipment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(86)
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q). -- Federal Trade Commission and Securities
and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B5)
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q). •
Office of Business Economics
Department of Commerce,
(B5, B8)
*17. Index of price per unit of labor cost -- ratio, index of wholesale
prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted
index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries,
and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics;
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(85, B8)
(Bl)
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate,
all industries (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B5)
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, B8, E3, E4)
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, producers' capital goods
industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B3)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B4)
26. Buying policy - production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M). -- National
Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)
28. New private housing units started, total (M). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8)
*31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
Continued on reverse
115
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 115)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower
deliveries (IKI). -- Purchasing Management Association of
Chicago
(B4)
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and
life insurance companies (M). -- Institute of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; Department of Housing
and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; U.S.
Savings and Loan League; and Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census.
(B6)
37. Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of purchased materials (M). -- National Association of Purchasing
Management; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B4)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and
over (EOM). -- American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(B6)
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment
survey (M). •- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
42. Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M). •• Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(Bl, B8)
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M). - Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(Bl, B8)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M). -- Department of Labor, Manpower Administration
(Bl)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).--The Conference Board
(Bl)
*47. Index of industrial production (M). - Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, E3, E4, E5, F2)
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, E5)
50. Number of job vacancies in manufacturing (M) - Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
*52. Personal income (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B2, B8)
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
*54. Sales of retail stores (M). • Department of Commerce, Bureau
(B2, B8, E3, E4)
of the Census
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M).-- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, E5)
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B2, B8)
57. Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, D4, E3, E4)
*61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
(B3, B8, Cl, C2)
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value, all
manufacturing industries (EOM). --- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain
current figure
(B6)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6, B8)
116
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations - ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B5)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)
*71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value (EOM). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
large commercial banks (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B6, B8)
85. Change in U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus currency) [Ml]
(M).~ Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6)
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
96. Manufacturers1 unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ). -The Conference Board
(B3)
102. Change in U.S. money supply plus time deposits at commercial
banks other than large CD's [M2] (M).- Board of Governors of
of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
103. Change in U.S. money supply, plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large CD's, plus deposits at nonbank
thrift institutions [M3] (M). - Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B6)
*113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M). - Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6, B8)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M). -- Treasury Department
(B6)
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M). -- First
National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department (86)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M). -- The Bond
Buyer
(B6)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M). -- Department
of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(B6)
*200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
*205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
245. Change in business inventories (GNP component) (Q). See
in section A.
810. Twelve leading indicators - reverse trend adjusted composite
index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31,
and 113) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
811. Twelve leading indicators - composite index prior to reverse
trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19,
23, 29, 31, and 113) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B7)
813. Marginal employment adjustments - leading composite index
(includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B7)
814. Capital investment commitments - leading composite index
(includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) (M). - Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
815. Inventory investment and purchasing -- leading composite
index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37) (M). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
816. Profitability -- leading composite index (includes series 16,
17, and 19) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B7)
C Anticipations and Intentions
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (Q). See in section B.
410. Manufacturers' sales, total value (9). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
412. Manufacturers' inventories, total book value (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
414. Percent of total book value of inventories held by manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Off ice
of Business Economics
(Cl)
416. Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective
operations over the next 12 months, less percent classifying
existing capacity as excessive (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics"
(Cl)
420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago
(percent higher, lower, and unchanged) (Q). - Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
425. Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substantial
changes (increase, decrease, and increase less decrease) in
income of households (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Cl)
430. Number of new cars purchased by households (Q).-- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
435. Index of consumer sentiment (Q). -- University of Michigan,
Survey Research Center
(Cl)
D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D Other Key Indicators
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). See in
section B.
250. Balance on goods and services; U.S. balance of payments (Q).
— See in section A.
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q).--See in section A.
253. Imports of goods and services:
(Q).--See in section A.
U.S. balance of payments
817. Sensitive financial flows - leading composite index (includes
series 33, 85,112, and 113) (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B7)
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- See in section A.
820. Five coincident indicators -- composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B7, E5)
500. Merchandise trade bala-e (Series 502 minus series 512) (M).»
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
830. Six lagging indicators - composite index (includes series 44,
61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B7)
502. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 116)
506. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
508. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M).-McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (series
292 divided by series 224) (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(E2)
565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
856. Real average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing, 1957-59 dollars (M). •- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(E2)
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing -- unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
512. General imports, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Dl)
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
515. Balance on goods, services and remittances; U.S. balance of
payments (Q). — Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
600. Federal Government surplus or deficit, national income and
product accounts (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D3)
517. Balance on current account; U.S. balance of payments (Q). —
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
519. Balance on current account and long term capital; U.S. balance
of payments (Q). — Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
521. Net liquidity balance; U.S. balance of payments (Q). —
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
522. Official reserve transactions balance; U.S. balance of payments
(Q). — Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
530. Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all foreigners,
total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Depart
ment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
532. Liquid and certain n on liquid liabilities (excluding military
grants) to foreign official agencies, total outstanding: U.S.
balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(D2)
534. U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
535. Allocations to the U.S. of Special Drawing Rights: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
540. U.S. investment income, military sales, and other services
exports, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
541. Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures and other
services imports: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
546. Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
548. Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
549. Payments for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
560. Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
561. U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
601. Federal Government receipts, national income and product
accounts (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D3)
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
858. Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm (Q). - Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents) on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series 46) to
total number of persons unemployed (M). — The Conference
Board, and Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
(E2)
(D3)
616. Defense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding
military assistance (M). -- Department of Defense, Fiscal
Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)
621. Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M). -Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(D3)
625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M). -- Department of Defense, Directorate for
Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number
and are obtained from the same sources. See section B for titles
and sources of Dl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, D58, D61,
and section C for D440, D442, D444, D446, D450, D460, D462, D464,
D466, and D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q). -- First National City Bank
of New York; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)
F International Comparisons
647. New orders, defense products industries (M). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).
See in section B.
648. New orders, defense products (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D3)
750. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
47. United States, index of industrial production (M). See in
section B.
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M). -Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
(F2)
751. Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
752. Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
781. Index of consumer prices (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(D4, E5, Fl)
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M) -- Central
Statistical Office (London)
(F2)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M). -- Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F2)
782. Index of consumer prices, food (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
783. Index of consumer prices, commodities less food (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M). -- Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal adjustment by
OECD
(F2)
126. France, index of industrial production (M). -- Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F2)
784. Index of consumer prices, services (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M). -- Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(F2)
E Analytical Measures
47. Index of industrial production (M). See in section B.
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). See in section B.
52. Personal income (M). See in section B.
54. Sales of retail stores (M). See in section B.
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M). See in
section B.
200. GNP in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
206. Potential level of gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
207. Gap -- the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual GNP
(Series 205) (Q). - - Counci I of Econom ic Advi sers
(E1)
781. Index of consumer prices, all items (M). See in section D.
820. Five coincident indicators -- composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B.
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce,
and McGraw-Hill Economics Department
(E2)
851. Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56), manufacturing and trade total (EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(E2)
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods (EOM). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (M). •- Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal
Reserve index of industrial production.)
(E2)
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M). -- Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M). -- Ministry of
Labour (London)
(Fl)
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(Fl)
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M). -- Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(Fl)
136. France, index of consumer prices (M). -- Insitut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(Fl)
137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(Fl)
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M). -- Office of the Prime
Minister (Tokyo)
(Fl)
142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M). -- The Financial
Times (London)
(F3)
143. Canada, index of stock prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)
145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M). -- Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(F3)
146. France, index of stock prices (M). -- Institut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)
147. Italy, index of stock prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di Statistica(Rome)
(F3)
148. Japan, index of stock prices (M). -- Tokyo Stock Exchange
(Tokyo)
(F3)
781. United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in section D.
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