Full text of Business Conditions Digest : November 1969
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NOVEMBER 1969
DATA THROUGH OCTOBER
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
This report was prepared in the Statistical Analysis Division,
Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication
are—
FeliksTamm—Technical supervision and review,
Barry A. Beckman—Specificationsfor computer processing,
Gerald F. Donahoe—-New projects,
Morton Somer—-Selection of seasonal adjustment methods,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data.
(Telephone 440-1596)
Editorial supervision is provided by Maureen Padgett of the
Administrative and Publications Services Division.
The cooperation of various government and private agencies
which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies
furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources
at the back of this report.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Maurice H. Stans, Secretary
Rocco C. Siciliano, Under Secretary
Harold C. Passer, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of
a technical committee established by the Bureau of the
Budget, This committee consists of the following persons:
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Julius Shiskin, Bureau of the Budget
Chairman
George Hay Brown, Director
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director
William H. Branson, Council of Economic Advisers
A. Ross Eckler, Bureau of the Census
George Jaszi, Office of Business Economics
Geoffrey H. Moore, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board
EDWIN D. GOLDFIELD, Assistant Director
ABOUT THE REPORT
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
persona/, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.
CYCLiCAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coineiders, or /aggers in refatten to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have a/so proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
Subscription price, including supplements, is $16 a year ($4 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues
are $1.50. Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign
airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your
This monthly report brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the
analysis of business conditions and was based largely on
the list of leading, roughly coincident and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Some other approaches commonly used by students of economic conditions include econometric models
and anticipations and intentions data. The econometric
model concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships among consumption, private investment government,
and various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of businessmen and the intentions of consumers.
Most of the content of Bus/ness Cycle Developments has
been retained in this new report: and additional data reflecting the emphasis of other approaches have been added to
to make it more generally useful to those concerned with
an evaluation of current business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is
not to be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau
of the Census or any other government agency of any particular approach to economic analysis. This report is intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report
have been published by their source agencies. A series
finding guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and
data sources, is shown at the back of this report.
address label. Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Semi to U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce Field Office.
New Features and Changes for This Issue..
BCII
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
Section B, Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons
How to Read Charts.^
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
NOVEMBER
1969
Data Through October
Series ESI No. 69-11
i
i
i
1
2
3
3
3
3
4
5
PART I. CHARTS
•H
••
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
I Al
A2
A3
A4_
AS
A6
,[ A7
AS.
A9j
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services...
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
t
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
•j
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Bl
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
18
21
23
26
28
30
B7
BS]
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
NBER Short List
34
36
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
40
43
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
PI
D2
P3 I
D4 I
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
••
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
d
Actual and Potential Gross National Product
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Rates of Change
46
47
52
54
56
57
59
61
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices..........................................................................................62
F2
F3
Industrial Production ....................................................................... ............ 63
Stock Prices................................................................................. ................ 64
PART II. TABLES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
Gross National Product.......................................................................... ..... 65
National and Personal Income ........................... ...... ................................... 65
Personal Consumption Expenditures............................................................ 66
Gross Private Domestic Investment ................. .............. ................ .. .......... 66
Foreign Trade...............................................................................................67
Government Purchases of Goods and Services............................................ 67
Final Sales and Inventories.......................................................... ................ 67
National Income Components................................................................ ...... 67
Saving..........................................................................................................68
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment ................... .. ........................ ...... ............. 69
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade.. .................... .... .............. .... 71
Fixed Capital Investment..............................................................................72
Inventories and Inventory Investment—.. ........ .......... ............ .. ............ .. ....... 74
Prices, Costs, and Profits............................................................................75
Money and Credit........................................................................................ 76
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes......................................................................................78
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series.................................................................................-, ...... 79
Diffusion Indexes.............................................................................. .......... 80
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade................................................................................... ............ 82
Balance of Payments and Major Components..,..., ....... ............ .......... ........ 83
Federal Government Activities...... ............. .................. ............ ........ .......... 85
Price Movements ............ .. ........................ ....... ..... ........................ ............. 86
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Actual and Potential GNP... ............................................................... ....... 87
Analytical Ratios...... ............... ............... ....... .......................... ...... ...... ...... 88
Diffusion Indexes............................................................................. ......... 89
Selected Diffusion Index Components .......... ....................................... ...... 92
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices................................................................................. ...... 98
Industrial Production..... ....._ ....... ..... ........ ............................................... 99
Stock Prices.............................................................................................100
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See September issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See August issue)
B. Current Adjustment Factors.....—.......................... ............... .............. 101
C. Historical Data for Selected Series ................ ............ ............... ..... ...... 102
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (Not shown this month)
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States:
1854 to 1961 (See October issue)
Technical Paper— Seasonal and Related Adjustments in Census Housing Starts and Permits Series...................................................................105
Index—Series Finding Guide......................................................................113
Titles and Sources for Series....................................................,................115
ii
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
Changes in this issue are as follows:
A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
1. The series on total private Dorrowing (series 110) has been
revised from 1952 to date. Revis I data for the period 1967 to
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
iate are shown in this issue (see lage 76). Revised data for the
data, additions or
deletions of series,
period prior to 1967 will be publ bed in appendix C of a subsequent issue.
Information concern g this revision may be obtained
changes in placement ot
series in relation to
other series, changes
From the Board of Governors of th Federal Reserve System, Flow of
in composition of
indexes, etc.
Funds Section.
2. A paper entitled "Seasonal i 1 Related Adjustments in Census
lousing Starts and Permits Series,
by John C. Musgrave, is
.ncluded in this issue.
examines some causes of
This pape
^regularity in economic series ar
presents the results of re-
search on seasonal and related adj stments for the series on
lousing starts (series 7) and perm ;s (series 29).
3. Appendix C presents historic
. data for diffusion indexes
11, D41, and D54.
he December issue of BUSINESS CON] TIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
•elease on December 31 •
iii
4 CENSUS PROJECTS on economic fluctuations
BUSINESS CONDITIONS
DIGEST
LONG TERM
ECONOMIC GROWTH
DEFENSE INDICATORS
COMPUTER PROGRAMS
FOR TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
A monthly report for
analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short
span of years.
This report brings together
approximate/y 400 monthly
and quarterly economic time
series in a form which is
convenient for analysts
whether their approach to
the study of current bus/ness
conditions and prospects is
the national income model,
the leading indicators,
anticipations and intentions,
or a combination of these.
Other types of data such as
foreign trade, Federal government activities, and international comparisons of consumer prices, stock prices,
and industrial production are
included to facilitate a more
complete analysis.
Data are presented in charts
and tables, and appendixes
are included which provide
historical data, series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of
variability. Also, a computer
tape containing data for
most of the series in the
report is available for purchase.
A report for the study of
economic fluctuations
over a long span of years,
1860-1965.
A monthly report for
analyzing the current and
prospective impact of
defense activity on the
national economy.
This report has been
developed from available
statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view
of the U.S. economy, it has
been planned, prepared, and
published as a basic research
document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers,
and students. It brings
together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the
complete statistical basis for
a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique
presentation of the full range
of factors required for an
understanding of our
country's economic development Some of the statistical
series go back to 1860. A
computer tape file of the time
series included in the report
is available for purchase.
This report brings together
the principal time series on
defense activities which
influence short-term changes
in the national economy.
These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders,
shipments, inventories,
expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 50 time series included
are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the
activities they measure occur
in the defense order-production-delivery process. Most
are monthly series, although
a few are quarterly. This
publication provides original
and seasonally adjusted basic
data in monthly, quarterly,
and annual form. Charts and
analytical tables are included
to facilitate interpretation.
IV
The source statements for
FORTRAN IV programs which
are used by the Bureau in
its analysis of time series
are available from the Bureau
on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
PROGRAMS.—Two variants
of the Census computer
program for measuring and
analyzing seasonal, tradingday, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations and the relations
among them. They are particularly useful in analyzing
economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The
X—11 variant is used for
adjusting monthiy data and the
X-11Q for quarterly data.
These programs can make additive as well as multiplicative
adjustments and compute
many summary and analytical
measures of the behavior
of each series.
DIFFUSION INDEX
PROGRAM.—A computer
program for computing diffusion indexes, cumulated
diffusion indexes, and
summary measures of the
properties of each index.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized Into six ma
subject sections, as follows:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
National Income and Product
Cyclical indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key indicators
Analytical Measures
International Companions
Each of these sections is described brief
in this introduction. Data for each of tf*
above sections are shown both in Part
(charts) and in Part II (tabDas) of the r<
port. The charts begin with 1943 (exce*
in section C where they begin with 1957,
the tables contain data for only the las
few years. Except for section F, the chart
contain shading which indicates periods c
recession in generaD business activity.
in addition t© the charts amd tables de
scribed above, each issue contains a sum
mary table which shows the current be
havior of many of the series, and severa
appendixes which present historical data
series descriptions, seasonal adjustmenl
factors, and measures of variability. Ar
index appears at the back of each issue,
St should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order,
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
lytCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MOD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD
moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
:o indicate their variation about the movng averages and to provide observations
or the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Office of Business Economics (OBE), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
Business, foreign, and government sectors
Of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
jf the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
iquals the total of the receipts (mainly
ncomes), is known as gross national
»roduct (GNP). GNP is defined as the
otal market value of the final output of
;oods and services produced by the Naion's economy. It is the most compreensive single measure of aggregate ecoomic output.
ross national product consists of four
lajor components: (1) Personal consump7n expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Persona/ consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and serw'ces measures
the excess of exports over imports of goods
and services. Exports include both domestic output sold abroad and the contribution to production abroad made by U.S.owned resources. Imports include both
U.S. purchases of foreign output and the
contribution made to production in the
United States by foreign-owned resources.
More detail on U.S. balance of payments
is provided in section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below,
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Persona/ income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference between income and spending during an ac-
counting period. It is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
SECTION B
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or (aggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 72
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses th3 same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 72 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging »indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient: summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements; in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that of the
coincident index. This facilitates compari-
Econonnic Process and Cyclical Timini
1. EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
I
(5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(36 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(25 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
!
IV. INVENTORIES
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(10 series)
VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(17 series)
Formation of business Inventory investment
Sensitive commodity
prices
and purchasing
:
enterprises
(1 series)
(7 series)
(2 series)
Stock prices
New investment
commitments
}
(1 series)
(8 series)
Profits and profit
;
margins
(4 series)
•.-.- . ••- .., - ,-.*- .-. , - . ••
. ..... . . .
. . , . . . . _ . . . ..
Flows of money
and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
Comprehensive
Backlog of investment
production
commitments
(3 series)
(2 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (3 series)
Investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
| Unit labor costs
j
(2 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
t
*
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans
and mortgages
(2 series)
sons among the leading, coincident, and
lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D
(Vlany economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
Sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com
prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions,
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments, Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
Because these data are influenced by
foreign as well as domestic conditions,
the cyclical shading has been omitted
from the balance-of-payments charts.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures
and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and
product accounts, but are not shown in
section A of this report. The defense series
included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of
defense activities, see Defense Indicators,
a monthly Bureau of the Census publication.
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components,, A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4,
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected group
of economic series. Percent changes at annual rate are shown for 1- and 3-month
spans or for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F
The price movements series consist of
consumer and wholesale price indexes and
their major components. Additional data
on prices and costs are shown in several
other sections.
SECTION E
ANALYTSCAL
MEASURES
This section begins Dy comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) as
designated by NBER.
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)
Basic Data
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER,
Arabic number indicates latest
™0^ f°r which data are plotted.
("6" = June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are
plotted. ("IV" ^ fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc,)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans,
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted iy2, 2,
or 2y2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the "Index—Series Finding Guide" in the back of the book where series are arranged into six
sections and various subsections. Also, in the list of "Titles and Sources of Series" which follows the Finding Guide, series are
listed in numerical order within each of the six sections, and the charts and tables in which they appear are indicated.
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Sines title
1966
1967
1968
2dQ
1968
3dQ
1968
Percent change
4th Q
1968
IstQ
1969
2dQ
1969
3dQ
1969
4th Q
to
IstQ
1969
IstQ
to
2dQ
1969
2dQ
to
3dQ
1969
Series number |
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al. Groci National Product
200.
205
210.
215
217
793.5
674.6
117.6
3t984
3t388
865.7
707.6
122.3
4*302
3i517
858.7
705.8
121.7
4t274
3*513
876.4
712.8
122.9
4*350
3*538
892.5
718.5
12^.2
4t418
3,557
908,7
723,1
125.7
4*488
3*571
924.8
726.7
127.3
4*556
3*580
942.8
730.6
129.0
4*633
3*590
1.8
0.6
1.2
1.6
0.4
1.8
0.5
1,3
1,5
0.3
1.9
0.5
1.3
1.7
0.3
200
205
210
215
217
620.6
587.2
511.9
458.9
654.0
629.4
546.5
477.7
714.4
687,9
590,0
497.6
707.4
680.1
587.4
497.4
724.1
696.1
593.4
498.9
737.3
711.2
604.3
502.1
751.3
724.4
610.2
502,6
765.7
740.5
622.0
506.2
780.5
756.5
639.0
514,1
1.9
1.9
1*0
0,1
1.9
2.2
1.9
0.7
1.9
2.2
2.7
1.6
220
222
224
225
2*599
2*745
2 f 933
2i924
2*946
2t991
3*014
3*065
3*140
0*8
1.7
2.4
226
2*494
2*526
-0.1
0.5
1.3
227
Ann.rate,bll.dol.. 750.0
GNP in current dollars
do
GNP in 1958 dollars. ..,
658.1
1958=100
Implicit price deflator
113.9
Per capita GNP in current dollars ....... Ann. rate, dol. . , 3*807
do
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
3*341
720 National income, current dollars
Amuate.bil.do!.,
do
224 Disposable personal income current dol .
225 Disposable personal income, constant dol
226. Per capita disposable personal income,
current dollars
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
. . .do
do
Ann. rate, dol ...
2i331
2f399
2*474
2i476
2t477
2.485
2*482
466.3
418.1
70.8
45.4
25,3
206.9
188.6
492.3
430.3
73.0
48.1
24.9
215.1
204.2
536.6
452,6
83.3
53,2
30.2
230*6
222.8
530.3
449.0
81.8
52.6
29.2
228,5
220.0
544.9
458.2
85.8
54.1
31,7
233,3
225,8
550.7
457.6
86.3
54.9
31,4
234.3
230.1
562.0
462.9
88.4
57,5
30,9
238,6
235,0
572.8
466.2
90.6
59.2
31.4
242.1
240.1
579.8
466.5
89.8
57.7
32.1
245.1
244,9
2.1
1.2
2.4
4.7
-1.6
1.6
2.1
1.9
0,7
2.5
3.0
1.6
1.5
2.2
1.2
0.1
-0.9
-2.5
2.2
1.2
2.0
230
231
232
233
234
236
237
121.4
81.6
28.5
53.1
25.0
14.8
116.0
83.7
27.9
55.7
25.0
7.4
126.3
88.8
29.3
59.5
30.2
7,3
126.6
86.4
28.3
58.1
30.3
9.9
125.2
88.1
29,0
59,1
29,9
7.2
133.9
91.5
30.1
61.4
31.9
135.2
95.3
32.3
63.0
33.3
137.4
97.8
32.1
65.7
32.7
143.3
101.1
34.7
66*4
31.4
1«0
4,2
7.3
2.6
4.4
1*6
2.6
-0.6
4.3
-1.8
4.3
3.4
8.1
1.1
-4,0
240
241
242
243
244
245
do
do
do
5,3
43.4
38.1
5.2
46,2
41.0
2,5
50,6
48,1
3.4
50.7
47.3
3.6
53.4
49.7
1.2
50.6
49.4
1.5
47.6
46.1
1.6
57.1
55.5
2,7
57,8
55,2
0.3
-5.9
*6.7
0.1
20.0
20.4
1.1
1.2
-0.5
250
252
253
do
do
do
do
156.6
77.8
60.7
79.0
180.1
90,7
72,4
89.3
200,3
99.5
78.0
100,7
198.4
99.0
77.9
99.4
202.5
100.9
78.8
101.7
206.7
101.9
79.3
104.8
210,0
101*6
79.0
108,5
212.9
100,6
78.5
112.3
217,0
103.2
80.3
113.8
1.6
»0.3
3.5
1.4
-1.0
-0.6
3.5
1.9
2.6
2.3
1,3
260
262
264
266
do
146.2
157.0
171.4
168,9
173.7
176,6
181.6
185.5
187.8
2.8
2.1
1.2
270
do
do
10.5
222.3
3.9
234.1
5.3
252.3
6.8
250.4
5.1
256.1
7,4
256.4
4.8
259.7
4.9
264.1
7.6
267.4
-2.6
1.3
0.1
1.7
2,7
1.2
271
274
do
4.3
3.5
2,0
3.1
2.1
3.1
1.8
2.1
3.1
-1.3
0.3
1.0
275
do
do
do
do
do
435,5
61.3
20.0
82.4
21,4
467,4
61.9
20.8
79.2
24.7
513,6
63.8
21,2
87,9
27,9
507.0
63.6
21.2
88.2
27.5
519.8
64.1
21.2
90.6
28.4
532.3
64.1
21-4
90.3
29.3
546.0
64.6
21.5
89.5
29.8
558.2
66.5
21.6
89.2
30.3
571.9
67.3
21.7
88.7
30.9
2.6
0.8
0.5
-0,9
1.7
2.2
2.9
0.5
-0.3
1.7
2.5
1.2
0.5
-0.6
2.0
280
282
284
286
286
... .do
do
124.9
32.5
119.2
40.4
128.4
38.4
128.8
42.3
129,1
33.2
135.4
38.0
138.5
32.5
142.7
33.3
150.0
43.1
2.3
-14,5
3,0
2.5
5.1
29.4
290
292
24.8
68.6
-14.5
23.4
73,3
-6.7
24.1
73.0
-10.8
25.6
73.7
-3.5
23.6
74.6
-0.9
22.3
75.9
7.8
21.3
77.2
10.9
21.4
78.6
7.0
-5.5
1.7
8,7
-4.5
1.7
3.1
0.5
1.8
-3.9
294
296
296
-1.7
-7,7
-9.4
-9.5
-8.3
-5.9
-2.4
0.8
2.4
3.5
3.2
207
do
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditure
230
231
232
233
234.
236
237
Ann.rate.bil.dol. .
Total current dollars
do
Total constant dollars. .
do
Durable goods, current dollars
do
Durable goods, exc, autos, current dollars. .
. .do
Automobiles, current dollars
do
Nondurable goods, current dollars
do
Services current dollars
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240
241.
242.
243
244,
do
Gross private domestic investment, total
do
Fixed investment, total nonrtsidential.
do
Fixed investment, nonresident! al structures.
Fixed investment, producers' dur. equip. . . . ... .do
do
Fixed investment, residential structur|s . . .
do
...
A5. Foreign Trade
252
Exports
•
A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260. Total
262 Federal
264 National defense
-o.<~
A7. Finol Soles and Inventories
270 Final sales durable goods
271. Change in business inventories, durable
goods 2
274 Final sales nondurable goods
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods
A8. Notional Income Component*
286. Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj. . .
288 Net interest
A9. Soving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances
do
do
do
27.4
63.9
1.1
El. Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP eao Potential less actual) 2
do
-11.0
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
1967
1968
IstQ
1969
2dQ
1969
Percent change
Oct.
1969
Aug.
to
Sept.
1969
-0.5
194*7
152.4
172.3
195.2
NA
116.8
106.7
116.1
NA
3dQ
1969
Aug.
1969
Sept.
153.6
171.5
1969
Sept.
to
Oct.
1969
IstQ
to
®
fi
2dQ
to
3dQ
1969
1
&
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
87. Composite Indexes
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj. . 1963-100
820, 5 coincident indicators
...,..do
do
830. 6 lagging indicators
,, . . .
LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS
813.
814.
815.
816.
817.
Marginal employment adjustments . ,
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Profitability
Sensitive financial flows. ,
do
do
do
do
do
129,5
143.2
150.9
141*4
156*6
164*8
149*9
165.8
178.9
152*4
169*1
184.9
152.5
171.6
192.7
151-7
172.3
193.6
104,3
107,1
101,0
114,6
106*4
114*2
101*8
116*6
101*9
107.0
118*9
103.6
118.7
101.0
107*7
118.5
105.4
118.7
101.7
106.5
117,9
106,7
115.9
106.3
117*5
106.2
115.4
98.6
97.6
106.6
118.4
107,2
115*5
100.0
40*7
5t716
4.6
40*5
5t352
4.7
40.7
40.7
40.5
5tl96
4.7
40*6
5,124
4.5
40.8
5.356
4.9
5tll2
4.8
4.860
NA
194
1*2
183
1.1
186
1.1
198
1*2
196
1.1
201
1.2
202
NA
373
206
365
228
383
231
346
229
345
224
346
235
329
227
131,4
134*6
137.5
140,2
140*0
67.8
72.1
139.0
70*0
139.9
65,8
70.5
70.4
74.5
70.5
74.6
70,5
74,7
139.2
70*7
98.3
1*3
0.6
0.3
0.8
0*9
0*1
2.5
-0 * <J
0«!5
o.:s
NA
-1.4
-0.5
1.7
2.0
3,4
0,7
-0.3
0*1
1.5
4.2
-1.1
-0.5
810
820
830
813
814
815
816
817
0*5
NA
1.7
0.0
0.7
-2.4
-3.0
«0«7
«4«9
NA
0*5
0*1
0.2
-3.0
-0.2
1
4
2
1.2
B1. Employment ond Untmploymtnl
LEAD/KG INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
40.6
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. . . , Hours
4, Nonagri, placements, all Industries
Ann, rate, thous. . 5t817
4,4
2, Accession rate, manufacturing*
Per 100 employ , .
*5. Avg, weekly Initial claims, State 3
unemployment Insurance (inverted ) .... Thousands . . .
225
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (Inverted3)8, . . Per 100 employ . . 1*4
0,5
-0,2
0*3
-2.6
-0.1
0.0
NA
0.0
-6.5
-0.1
5
3
•^4.9
4*9
1.3
-9,7
-0.9
49
46
-0,5
-1.6
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Job Vacancies:
49. Nonagri. job openings unfilled 4
46. Help-wanted advertising
Thous., EOP-...
1957-59=100 ....
Comprehensive Employment:
48, Man-hours in nonagricultural
Ann. rate, billion
establishments,
man-hours
*41. Employees on nonagri, payrolls
Millions
do
42, Persons engaged in nonagri activities , . .
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted3 )2. . . .Percent
45, Avg. weekly insured
unemployment
do
ratefinverted 3 ) 2
40, Unemployment
rate,
married
males
3 a
(inverted )
do
348
186
69.5
73*8
73.8
75.0
0.3
4.9
-0.1
0*0
0*1
-3.4
»G.6
0.3
0.4
1.1
0.7
0.0
0*6
0*6
0*9
48
41
42
3.8
3*6
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.5
4,0
3.9
-0.5
0.1
2.5
2.2
2.1
2.0
2,2
2.1
2,2
2.2
-0.1
0.0
1,8
1.6
1.4
1*5
1,6
1.5
1,7
1.7
-0.2
0.0
-0.1
0.6
0*5
0.4
0.5
0,5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0*0
-0.1
0.0
44
Ann. rate, bi Uriel . . 793,5
do
674.6
1957-5^100 .... 158.1
865*7
707.6
165.4
908.7
723*1
170.2
924.6
726.7
172.6
942,8
730.6
174.3
174.3
173,9
173.3
..0,3
1.8
0.5
1*4
1.9
0.5
1.0
200
205
47
2.2
2.1
52
53
1.6
1.5
56
57
54
«0.2
0.1
-0.2
43
-0.2
45
-0.1
40
LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
* 44. Unemployment rate,
15 weeks and
over (inverted3)2
do
0.0
B2, Production, Income, Consumption,
ond Trade
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production:
*200. GNP in current dollars
*205, GNP in 1958 dollars
*47, Industrial production
-0.2
Comprehensive Income:
*52, Personal Income
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr . . ,
do
629,4
163,8
687*9
178.6
724.4
188*5
740.5
193.5
756,5
197,6
757.5
198.1
760,7
198,6
763.1
198.7
0,4
0,3
0*3
0.1
2. a
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*56, Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Final sales .
*54. Sales of retail stores
It 066
786,2
314.0
It 162
858.4
338.4
It212
902.1
348*8
If 239
917.9
352.8
It 259
932.0
350.7
1,256
It 270
NA
1.1
NA
2.2
352.2
351.0
352.5
107,7
207.8
117.8
233.2
124.7
256.5
123.5
281.6
124.0
281.2
124.2
277.9
123.1
280.6
NA
NA
334.5
176
85*0
24*8
359.4
197
360.4
193
374.8
190
365.8
216
381.0
195
5, (4
-19.9
93.3
97.6
13.3
12.7
-6,0
76.5
96.0
31.1
79,8
91.2
69.7
96.5
30.0
80.2
385,7
173
103.8
74.9
88,2
79.0
17.8
-10.4
4.8
793
Ii498
112.9
912
It 692
119*8
927
It 496
116*0
846
It411
102.3
864
1,370
104.0
790
It5l3
100.4
It029
It 329
-8*6
10.4
-3.5
30.3
-12.2
1*6
-11.6
-8.7
-5.7
-3.2
-11.8
9
7
29
84.07
20.02
85*16
20.48
85.91
21.52
86.38
22.26
85.98
86.38
86.26
0.5
3.4
96
97
do
. .do
do
-0,3
0*4
2.7
1.3
1.1
-0.6
B3. Fixtd Copilot Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12, Index of net business formation
13, New business incorporations
1957-59=100....
Ann, rate, thous, .
New Investment Commitments:
*6, New orders, durable goods industries . . , Ann.
. rate, bil.dol . . 302,3
8. Construction contracts, total value
1957-59-100,...
155
*10, Contracts and orders, plant, equipment , , . Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
75.4
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing,
do
23,0
24, New orders, mach, and equip, industries , .
do
63.0
9. Construction contracts, commercial
Ann.rate.mil.sq.
and industrial buildings.
ft. floor space , .
703
7, Private nonfarm housing starts
Ann, rate, thous. . It 273
*29, New bldg, permits, private housing
1957-59=100 ....
95.6
26*6
-0,9
1.0
NA
NA
•»i.a
-1.0
9,8
0,3
-2.0
3.4
12.8
93.5
^6.9
0.4
-0.1
4.0
-1.6
-0.5
3.7
-0-5
12
13
6
8
10
11
24
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries4. Bit, do!., EOP...
97. BacklOR of capital approp.,mfg,4
do
80.58
20*41
0*5
-0.1
0,9
5.1
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1967
IstQ
1968
1969
2dQ
1969
Percent change
3dQ
1969
Sept.
Aug.
1969
1969
Oct.
1969
Aug.
to
Sept.
1969
Sept.
to
Oct.
1969
IstQ
to
2dQ
1969
2dQ
to
3dQ
1969
Series number
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
B, CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
63. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
LAGGING M0/CATOftS
Investment Expenditures:
*61. Business expend., new plant and equip • • • Ann. rate, bil. dol. 61.69
69. Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures , . . ..,
. ,.do
76.90
64.11
68,90
70.20 a72.25
82.69
90.58
90.18
94.67
1.9
94.20
98.64
2*9
61
5.0
69
245
NA
4.7
NA
0.3
3.8
NA
0.1
NA
0.6
2.3
31
5
4
0
37
-0.1
-0.4
B4. Inventories and Invtntory |nv««tmefit
LEAD/NO INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in business inventories, all
industries2'
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories2
37, Purchased materials, percent reporting
Ann. rate, billion
dollars
7.4
do
6.5
Percent
20. Change in book value, manufacturers'
Ann. rate, billion
inventories of materials, supplies2.
dollars
26. Buying policy, production mate rials,
9
commitments SO days or longer <p) , . . .Ffercent
32, Vendor performance, percent reporting
do
Ann. rate billion
25. Change in unfilled offers, durable good)
dollars
industries *
7.3
10.1
6.6
10.6
6.9
11.4
10.7
13.7
44
51
46
50
50
0.1
1.4
1.1
1.0
0.4
65
64
59
65
62
44
53
61
69
67
2.6
3.5
4.3
3,0
1.9
Inventories:
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories *. . Bil. dol., EOP... 143.7
65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories
do
of finished goods*
26.81
153.8
156.4
159,3
12.3
51
-0.5
63
68
.4.6
12.4
48
53
-3
0.7
NA
1.2
NA
65
63
2
-2
66
65
-2
4.7
-1.4
9.3
6
-1
-6.1
8
-1.3
-0.6
-3
-2
-1.1
20
26
32
25
LAGC/NG WO/CATOW
162.7
161«7
162.7
NA
0.6
NA
1.9
2,1
71
31.10
NA
0.5
NA
2.8
2.1
65
4.6
4.1
23
29.13
29.61
30,45
31.10
30-96
65. Prices, Co«U, and Profit*
LEAD/NO /NO/CATOffS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23, Industrial materials prices®
1957-59=100 .... 100.4
97.8
105.5
110.4
114.9
U5.0
117.4
115.6
2.1
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks®
1941-43-10
91.9
98.7
100.9
101.7
94.5
94,2
94.5
95.5
0.3
Profits and Profit Margins:
*16 Corporate profits after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
Ann. rate, bil. dol.
47.3
49.8
52.2
51.8
50.0
-0,8
-3.5
16
10.5
-0.2
-0.1
-0,6
22
15
17
Percent . ...
11,9
15. Profits (after taxes) per do), of sales, mfg, Cents
5,0
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
: 1957-59=100 ....
100.7
11.4
5.1
11.3
5.0
11.1
4.9
-1.5
1*1
NA
0.8
-7*1
NA
19
99.2
99.8
99.9
99,4
99.0
99.0
99.2
0.0
0.2
0.1
109.0
109.4
111.4
111.7
112.2
112.8
112.8
112.8
113.6
113,2
113.9
113.8
114,6
0*4
0.3
0.5
0*6
0.7
1.0
0.5
0.8
55
58
0.3
0.3
1.3
0.9
1.5
1.2
68
62
-0.5
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55, Wholesale prices, indus. commodities <g> , 1957-59=100 .... 106,3
do
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods § ,
106.7
U3.7
LAGGING /WD/CATOKJ
Unit Labor Costs:
68, Labor cost per unit of gross product,
*62, Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
Dnllarc
0.706
0,723
0.745
0.755
0.766
1957-59=100 ....
106,0
110.3
112.0
113.0
114.3
114,7
115.1
115.5
9.0
7.0
-0.6
0,7
4,4
-6.7
-10.6
-1.2
-1.6
-1.8
21.1
20.9
B6, Money and Credit
LEADING /NO/CATOW
Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in 2money supply and time
deposits ,
33,
*113.
112.
110.
Ann. rate, percent
do
Change in mortgage debt
, . . .Ann. rate, bill dol.
Change in consumer installment
debt
...
do
Change in business loans 3
do
Total private borrowing
3
Credit Difficulties:
do
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv?)<§).
39. Delinquency 2rate,
installment loans
Percent, EOP ...
(inverted^ 4
10.6
6.4
16.7
3.2
4.4
20.0
8.9
7.6
4.1
0.0
21.6
21,4
10.8
99.3
80.6
19.5
2.2
0.0
8.4
9.0
0.6
NA
NA
7.6
65,4
80.8
10.3
91*0
1.27
0.94
1.00
1,21
1.00
0.75
1.74
1.71
1.51
1.64
1.70
1.70
NA
NA
-207
-592
-1?003
-950
-946
-831
-It 006
-5.3
0.88
1.40
9.4
1,8
-0.2
1.2
14*3
-0.4
0.6
NA
NA
-1*4
-17.3
-59.1
NA
NA
1.3
0.3
-0.2
1.3
0*5
9.1
-7,4
-4,4
-1.9
-1.9
-8.6
-18.8
98
85
33
113
112
110
-21.0
17.4
14
-0.13
-0,06
39
-53
93
ROUGHLY COWODENT INDICATORS
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted ^)2 @
Million dollars...
Money
114.
116,
115
117.
Percent
do
do
do
Market Interest Rates:
Treasury bill rate 2 ®2
Corporate bond yields <§)
Treasury bond yields22(g>
Municioal bond yields <a
194
4.33
6.08
4.85
3.94
-115
175
411
5,34
6.14
6,24
7.05
7.01
7.13
7.04
0.12
-0.09
0.10
0.81
6.84
5.26
4.45
7.46
5.88
5.03
7.73
5.91
5.43
8.16
6.14
6.00
8.05
6.02
6.00
8.36
6.32
6.26
8.46
0.31
0.30
0.26
0.10
0.27
0.03
0.40
0.43
0.23
0.57
,6.27
6.09
-0.05
-0.17
114
116
115
117
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con,
Basic data1
Unit
of
Series title
1967
Aug.
1969
Sept.
19B9
3dQ
1969
1969
Oct.
1969
90.2
74.7
92.6
77,0
94.5
78.0
93,8
77.4
94,5
78.0
NA
78.3
7.32
8.02
7.86
8.16
8,82
8,37
8.36
8.40
8,43
2.3
2.5
IstQ
2dQ
1969
72*3
6.68
7.19
1968
Percent change
Aug.
to
Sept.
1969
Sept,
to
Oct.
1969
IstQ
to
2dQ
1969
s
2(1 Q
to
3dQ
1969
c
.8
&
B. CYCLICAL WDICATORS-Con.
66, Monty and Crtdtt-Con.
UGGJWG JNWCATORS
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt4
Bil, dol., EOF, , . 79,2
*72. Com, and industrial loans outstanding *» , . .... do
65.1
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages'.
*67, Bank rates on short-term bus,
loans 2®. . . Ppfrpnt
do
118. Mortgage yields, residential 2 ®
6*00
6*56
88.1
0.7
0.8
0,04
NA
0,4
0*08
a. 7
3.1
2,1
1.3
66
72
0.54
0*14
0.96
0.21
67
118
1.2
1.4
500
0,3
502
6.3
3.8
-3.6
506
508
512
5.27
520
522
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D1, Foreign Trade
500, Merchandise trade balance2
Ann. rate, bil. dot..
do
506. Export orders, durable goods except motor
do
vehicles
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery — 1957-59=100....
512, General imports
Ann. rate, bil. dol. .
4.1
1*0
-0.3
0.9
3,3
1.9
0.8
-4.4
31.0
34.1
30.3
39.4
39,5
40,6
39,9
40*5
-1.7
1.5
30.0
10.8
230
26.9
12.3
241
33.1
13.4
241
14,2
262
38.6
15.1
272
37.2
14.9
248
38.2
15.9
278
36.7
NA
NA
38.7
6.7
12.1
-3.9
NA
NA
5.4
6.0
8.7
26*1
30*6
02, U.S. Botonce of Payments
520, Liquidity balance basis2
522, Official settlements basis2
, . ,, ,
do
do
-3.54
-3.42
0.17
1.64
-6.67
4.57
-15,40 -10.13
4,94
-8.73
0.37
-3.73
»8.67
D3, Federal Government Activities
600, Federal surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts 2
601. Federal receipts, national income and
product accounts
602. Federal expenditures, national income
and product accounts
264, National defense purchases
616, Defense Dept. obligations, total
621. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement . . .
647. New orders, defense products industries, . .
648, New orders, defense products
625, Military contract awards in U.S
,.
do
-12.7
7.3
3.4
-5.7
600
do
151.1
176.3
198.1
202.3
200.9
2.1
-0,7
601
do
do
do
do
do
do
.do
163.8
72,4
81.0
26.1
42.5
NA
42.3
181*5
78.0
188.5
79.0
85.5
24.2
48.9
25.2
39.6
189,3
78,5
74.4
17.0
42.8
193.6
80.3
80.5
19.4
47.8
21.0
35.5
77,2
15,3
45.2
17.5
38.1
78,0
25.2
49,4
17,0
33.0
NA
NA
57.2
22.6
NA
1.0
64.7
9.3
-2.9
-13.4
NA
NA
15,6
32.9
NA
0,4
-0.6
-13,0
-29.8
-12.5
-18.3
-19.9
2.3
2.3
8.2
14.1
11.7
1.9
12.0
602
264
616
621
647
648
625
124.8
111.2
126.9
112.6
128.7
113.4
128.7
U3.4
129.3
113.6
129.8
11,4.0
0*5
0*2
0*4
0.4
1.7
1*3
1.4
0-7
781
750
84.5
84.5
-5.2
86*6
28.9
47.5
NA
42*3
9.6
13,0
20*6
31.7
D4, Price Movements
781, Consumer prices, all items ®
1957-59=100 .... 116.3
750, Wholesale prices, all commodities <§)..,.
do
106.1
121.2
108.7
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850, Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2. .
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing
and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs.'
durable goods industries
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
personal income
855. Ratio, nonagri cultural job openings
unfilled to persons unemployed
858, Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm. .
856. Real average hourly earnings, production
Percent. * • « » * *
Ratio
do
...
85.3
84.5
0.0
84.1
1.58
1.54
1.54
1.54
1.54
1*54
1.54
NA
3.48
3.31
3.20
3.22
3,14
3*15
3.07
NA
1957-59=100.... 123.3
Ratio
0.074
118.4
118.7
121,3
120.9
0.065
0,053
0.053
0.067
do
0,121
1957-59=100 .... 129.9
0.133
134.2
0.139
135.0
0.137
134.5
0*117
134.3
2.51
1957-59 dollars.. 2.43
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers.
.
78.08
do
857, Vacancy rate in total rental housing 2 ® . . Percent * « * * » » •
6.2
2.48
2.50
2.48
78.53
78,29
78.24
78.30
5.4
5*0
5.1
5,0
120.1
122.9
123.5
0.0
-2.5
2.3
$.51
78*34
0.107
0.104
-10*8
2.51
2.50
0.0
78.53
78.00
0.2
0.0
850
851
NA
0*0
NA
0.6
-2.5
852
2.2
-0.3
853
0.5
0.0
0*120
-0.4
-2,8
-1.4
-0.4
"0.4
-0.8
«-0.7
-0*1
0.1
26.4
-14,6
-0,1
854
855
858
1,2
856
0.1
-0.1
859
857
NOTE; Series are seasonall
indicated by®, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, NA - not available,
a - anticipated.
EOP * end of period.
x
ln many cases, data shovn here are rounded to fever digits or are in different units than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual
figures are those published by the source agencies or they are rounded from published figures; otherwise they (and the quarterly figure e for monthly oorics)
are 2 averages or totals of the data as shewn in part II.
Differenees rather than percent changes are shewn for this series.
Inverted series. Since this aeries tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, aigna of the changes are reversed.
4
End -of -period aeries. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
NATIONAL INC0IVIE AND
Chart Al
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
200. GNP in current dollars, Q (am. rate, bit. doi.)
210. implicit price deflator, Q (index: 1958=100)
215. Per capita GNP in current dollars, Q (aim. rate, thous. dol.j
217. ]Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars,
Q (arm. rate, thous. do!.)
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.
BCI»
NOVEMBER
1969
Section A
I Chart A2 J NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
«)
(Pw.) ist
I?
?
(tog.)
220. National Income, current fetors* Q (am, rate, bit. doll
222. Personal income, current dollars, Q
{am. rate, W. del.)
224. Disposable personal income, current
deters, Q (ant, rate, bR doll
225. Disposable personal income, 1958 doHars,
Q (ana rate, b* do),]
226. Per capita disposable personal income, current doNars
Q (am. rate, tfwtts, dot.)
227. Per capita disposable personal income, 1958 dollars
Q (arm. rate, ttwus. doL)
si
es
Current data for those series arc shown on page 65.
10
NOVEMBER
1969
ItCII
Section A
NATIONAL
AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Annual rate, billion dollars
Personal consumption expenditures230. Total, current dollars, 0
231. Total, 1958 dollars, Q
232. Durable goods, total, current dollars, Q
233. Durable goods, total excluding automobiles,
current dollars, Q
!
234. Automobiles, current dollars, Q
236. Nondurable goods, total, current dollars, Q
237. Serviced, total, current dollars, Q
Current data for these series are shown on page 66.
NOVEMBER
1969
11
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A4 I GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
1 (Apr.)
I
(May) (Fek)
P If
Annual rate, billion dollars [current] \
Smss private domestic investment240. Total, Q
241. Nonresidential fixed investment, total, Q
J
40
243. Producers' durable equipment, Q
245. Change in business inventories, Q
Current data for these series arc shown on page 66.
12
NOVEMBER 1969
!!€!»
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A5
FOREIGN TRADE
(My)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (flpr.)
IP
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
250. Net exports of goods and services, 0
_: v v
252. Exports of goods and services, Q
253. Imports of goods and services, Q
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
BtJI NOVEMBER 1969
13
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart AeT] GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
Annuat rate, billion dollars (current)
Government purchases of goods and sarvices-
260. Federal, State, and local governments
262. Federal Government, Q
264. National defense, Q
266, State and tocal governments, Q
li
Current data for those series are shown on page 67.
14
NOVEMBER
1969
!!€!»
Section A
Chart
A7
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
Annual rateiJnHion Mfrsjoirrejitl
270. Final sales, durable goods, Q
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods, Q
274, Final sales, nondurable goods, Q
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods, Q
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
BM) NOVEMBER 1969
15
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
(Oct.)
I
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
fluly) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Annual rate, pillion dollars (current)
280, Compensation of employees, Q
282. Proprietors' income, Q
284. Rental income of persons, Q
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment, Q
288. Net interest Q
Current data for theso series are shown on pages 67 and 68.
16
NOVEMBER 1969
BCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Section A
SAVING
(Nov.) (Qet)
P
T
(July)
P
i'
5
1j
' ,
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
I
- !f
i
i
P
T
>\
'
Annual ratfi hill'OH rinilar<i [mirrent)
li
,
s
s*\ *s^ E33
.. i[ , . , . . .
1
.
.'
•
.
^
i '
.
A.
'!.
A y "x if -X
120100-
290. Gross saving {private and government), Q
! .
\
lou160140 =
*~~s
+•
80-
292. Personal saving. Q
294 Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment, Q
296. Capital consumption allow
9f)ft Government suralus or deficit. Q
1948
49
50
51
52
i3
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
@@
67
6S
69 1970
Current data for these series ore shown on page 68.
NOVEMBER
1969
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart Bl
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
(G@
IF
*t.lAverage workweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours)
s
2. Accesswn rat»7raaouf3cturing (per 100 employees)
Average weekly initial clams, State unemptoywefit insurance (thousands -inverted scale)
Layoff rate, manufacturing (fX» 100 employees-inverted sscate)
~~
'
* " '^
li
" ~""" "
f" - *
- ~-
Current data for those series are shown on page 69.
18
NOVEMBER
1969
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
I
(J«W
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
49, Nonagncultural job openings unfitted [thousands],
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957-59=100)
48, Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (arm. rate, bit. man-hours]
*41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions)
42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (millions)
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.
BCD NOVEMBER 1969
19
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Bl
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (tot.)
P
T
(July)
(Aug.)
P
I
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Comprehensive Unemploymen
3•
Unemployment rati, total (percent-inverted scale)
1
45, Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale)
40. Unemployment rate, married males (percent-inverted scale)
Lagg ng Indicators
Long - Duration Unemployment
*44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)
Current data for those series are shown on page 70.
20
NOVEMBER
1969
a•
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B2
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.;
13
T
*8ft"GNP jiTcurrenffcHwsTB faSiTrate, ITdE]
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars,
QlanOJteTlinW.1
*47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)
*52, Personal income (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
construction |ann.
NOTE: For this economic process (I.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
KCII NOVEMBER
1969
21
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.
B2
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oet.)
P
I
(July)
P
(Aug.)
I
(July) (Apr.)
P
I
(May) (M.)
F
T
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
*S6. Manufacturing and trade sales (hit. dot.)
57. Final sates (series 200 minus series 245), Q (am. rate, bil. dot.)
*54. Sales of retail stores (bit dot.)
NOTE: For this economic process (I.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging Indicators have a$ yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
22
NOVEMBER 1969
ItCII
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
Formation of Business Enterprises
*12. Net business formation {index: 1957-59=100]
13. New business incorporations (thousands}
*6. New orders, durable goods industries {bil. dol.)
8. Construction contracts; total value (index: 1957-59=100
MCO moving avg.-5-term)1
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment jbil. dol.)
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
ltd*
NOVEMBER 1969
23
idmmj CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart
B3 | FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) pet)
P
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
(May) (Feb.)
P f
11. New capital approociations, manufacturing, Q bit. do).
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries (oil, dol.)
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial (mil. sq. ft
of floor area; MCD moving avg.-6-tetm)1
I Private nonfarm housing starts (arm, rate, miiofKjJHrojnqvjng_avg>.--5-terml
~*Sf New buttdirtg permits^ private housing unft
1948 49
SO
SI
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
6!J
*'fhis Is u tsc^yrlghted ^orJe-s vftoti by fMrmlislon; It may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current d«M fer these series ar*j shown on pages 72 and 73.
24
NOVEMBER 1969
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr,)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods Industries (bit. dol.j
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bit, dol.l
Lagging Indicators
investment Expenditures
Machinery and equipment sales and business construction
expenditures (ann. rate, tail dol.
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
NOVEMBER 1969
25
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators
245.; Change in business inventones, aH industries, Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
Change in book vakie, manufacturing and trade inventories
aiui. lite, oil. dol; MCD moving avg.-5-term)
Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories
Ctiange in book value, manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies
ann. rate, 1C dol; MOD moving avi-6-term)
materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer
Current data for those series are shown on page 74,
26
NOVEMBER
1969
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B4
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct)
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(oil. do I.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
:.....
Ji
Lagging Indicators
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. dot.)
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (tail, dol.)
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
NOVEMBER 1969
27
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart 85
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Leading Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P I
(Nov.) (Get)
P
T
(Map) (Fete.)
P I
Sensitive Commodity Prices
*23.Jndw|trial materials prices jlndex: 1957-59=100]
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43-10)
22. Ratio, profits (after taxes) to income originating,
-4§. Profit^ (?ftpr tavpg) pftf dolly of sflfos, manufacturing, Q [rants]
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (imtex: 1957-59 100)
1S§
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
28
NOVEMBER
1969
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Ma?) (Feb.)
P
T
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (index: 1957-59=100)
Lagging Indicators
6& tajwcost Jcttr.jtolJjgninrtof
*62. Ubi^r costjg^tBftjat_«rtputt manufacturing {index
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
ItU) NOVEMBER 1969
29
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oet.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(My) (Apr.)
P I
{May}(Feb.)
P I
Flows of Money and Credit
98. Change in money suppty and time deposits (ann. rate, percent;
MCD moving avg.-6-term)
85, Change in money supply (ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
33. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, biL do).]
*113. Change In consumer installment debt (arm. rate, bit dol.)
112, Change in business loans (ann. rate, bit. dot;
MCD moving avg.-6-tefjmJ
Current data for those series are shown on page 76,
30
NOVEMBER
1969
ItCII
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart
B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
110. Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, bit, dot)
KffiRRIBRIHHIHI
14. liabilities of business failures (mil. do).-inverted scale;
foCD moving avg.-6-term)
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total installment loans
| percent-inverted scale)
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
BCII NOVEMBER
1969
31
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
93. Free reserves (bil, dol.~inverted scale)
V
114. Treasury tell rate [percent]
Corporate bond yields (percent]
Treasury bond yields (percent)
117. Municipal toad yields (percent)
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.
32
NOVEMBER 1969
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dot.)
Commercial and industrial toans outstanding
weekly reporting large
*67. Bank rates on short-term business; loans, Q (percent)
, residential (percent)
.,, lUJ'-fl.
1948 49
50
§1
52
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
67
68
69 1970
Current doto for these series are shown on page 77.
NOVEMBER 1969
33
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
COMPOSITE INDEXES
(July)
(Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
P I
(May) (Feb.)
P
I
[index: 1963-100]
810. Twelve leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted
(series 1,|;5, 6,10( 12,16,17,18, 23, 29, 31,113]
820. Five coincWent indwators, estimated aggregate
ecofaimic activity IseSs 41, 43,47, 52, 561
830, Six lagging indicates (series 44, 61, 62, 67, 71, 72)
Current data for these series are shown on page 78. Numbers entered on the chart Indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+1 In months from reference turning dates.
1 Reverse trend adjusted Index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the Index of 5 coincident Indicators.
34
NOVEMBER 1969
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May} (Feb.)
P
T
813. Marginal employment adjustments (series 1, 2T 3, 5]
/'VVA
Capital investment commitments {series 6,10,12,29]
815. toventory investment and purchasing (series 23, 25, 31, 37)
816. PfofitatxKy (series 16J7
817. Sensitive financial flows (series 33, 85,112,113)
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
IM.JP NOVEMBER 1969
35
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST
Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
(July)
P
(Aug.)
I
(July) (Apr.)
P I
(May) (Fab.)
P I
42
*1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing [hours]
4H
40
*5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (thousands-inverted scale]
*12. Net business formation (index: 1957-59=100]
*6. New orders, durable goods industries (bit. dol.)
*10 Contracts and orders, plant and equipment [bil. dol.]
. New tjuUfflnf isemrtts, private turasinf units ttndBx: 1957-»100)
Current data for those series arc shown on pages 69, 72, and 73,
36
NOVEMBER
1969
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Del)
P
I
(luly)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P I
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
^
23. Industrial materials pnces (into 1957-5^100)
*I9. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (Nex: 1941-43=10)
*16, Corporate profits after taxes, Q (ann. rate, bit. dot.)
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index: 1957-59=100]
Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74, 75, and 76.
IICII
NOVEMBER
1969
37
Section B
L
Chart
B8
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
am (Aug.)
P
T
(luly) (Apr,)
P T
(May) {Fell.}
P I
current dollars, 0 am rate, ML dot.)
205. tHf in 1958 totters,
Q (aon. rate, bit dot]
47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)
Perso^ income (arm. rate, W. tot)
*56. Manufacturing and trade
*54, Sates ofretail$tores k doL)
*41. Employees on nonagricuftufal payrote (mrions
Unempkmnem rate, total {percent-jnverted scale]
Current data for these series are shown on pages 70 and 71.
38
NOVEMBER
1969
ItCII
Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
p
*44.
I
rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)
*61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. dol.)
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacture (index: 1957-59=1001
111=
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
large commercial banksTfbil. dol.) ^
*67.Bank rates on short-term business loans, 0 (percent)
Current data for these series are shown on pages 70, 73, 74, 75, and 77.
| NOVEMBER
1969
39
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart Cl
duly)
P
AGGREGATE SERIES
(May)
P
(Apr,)
T
(Feb.)
T
expwdferes for new plant
all industries, Q |
70
80-
(a) Actual expenditures
(ami, rate, bil. ttol.)
80-
11(01
(b) Secoml anticipatkMis as
.aerctnt o^ actual (p«rcwtl
Il
110 T
(el-First anticipations as
pffl^Of^alhWentl
Hi
IU
_Ji_Jl 'i
1;
1
i
S8
'< .K
5©
.'I. ... il _JL_JL.Jl_
60
ill TTW
105-
»?•!?
100-
i
61
62
63
64
6S
67
68
69
70
Currant data for these sorlos are shown on page 79,
40
NOVEMBER 1969
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart Cl
AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
(July)
(«pr.)
412. Manufacturers' inventories, total
book value, Q [bil. dol
414. Condition of manufacturers' inventories:
percent considered high less percent
considered low, Q (percent)
416. Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive, Q (percent)
4.
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
ltd*
NOVEMBER
1969
41
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AW INTENTION!
Chart
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
Cl
Actu
—
Anticipated • - * j
, Ctrrnmtlncome of botr$irwt!te§compamtfto Incomes year agfl, 0
(a) Percent of households reporting no change in family income (percent)
(b) Percent of households reporting higher family income (percent)
(c) Percent of households reporting tower family income (percent)
421 Mean probability of substantial changes in income of households, Q
I
(a) Mean probability of increase in family income (pwcentj
|i
;|
(b) Increase less decrease (percent)
li
(c) Mean probability of decrease in family income (percent)
!;43<0. Number of new cars purchased by households, Q
i
(am rate, mil. cars)
I
(a) Actual [quarterly]
(b) Actual. 2-quarter moving avg.
(d) Anticipations as percent of actual data (percent)
i rA
435. Index of consumer sentiment, 0
V
©3
©4
\
;
x.,-""\ *..*>. »...-....-•..K -x
dD
?©
Current data for these series aro shown on page 79.
42
NOVEMBER 1969
BCII
Section C
ANT1QPAT80NS AND INTENTIONS
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Diffusion indexes: peccant rising
(plotted at terminal quarter)
"*"'"• ~ " ~ i
'
0440. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span]1
Actual
Anticipated*
D442. Net! profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade [4-Q span]1
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
'This is o copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
NOVEMBER
1969
43
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
C2
(May)
(Fete.)
(plotted at terminal qwrtef)
j. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade [4-Q span]1
, Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
t>4«2. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span]1
...
,0464, Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)1
0466, Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)1
Current data for those series aro shown on page 80.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
44
NOVEMBER
1969
Section C
Chart C2
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(Fab.)
T
Diffusion indexes: percent rising
jlptotted at terminal quarter)
!j
Actual
Anticipated *
061. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries [1-Q span]
D480.;< Freight carloadings (4-Q span]
480. Change in freight carloadings (4-Q span]
(millions of cars)
i§
SD
i©
il
64
65
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1969
45
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
(Hay) (Feb.)
500, Merchandise trade balance (bi (W.; MCD 'moving avg.~6-term)
502. Exports, except mifitary aid (fail, dol; MCO moving avg,-6-temij
506. Export wders, durables except motor vehicles
(bil. dot.; MCO moving avg.- 6-termj
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
jind$x: 1957-59-100; MCD moving avg.-4-termJ
512, General imports |bl, dot; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
ill
g:
Current data for these series are shown on pago 82.
46
NOVEMBER
1969
KCII
Section D
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
U.S. Balance of Payments, Q
520. Liquidity balance basis
[Change jn U.S. official reserve assets and change
[Change in U.S. official reserve assets, and change
- ln^ut(ttlabiimerpws^TtalrTffliiit|u
to foreign monetaty official agencies
Annual rate, billion dollars
Excess of receipts [inflow)
EH Excess of payments (outflow)
525. Net capital movements, liquidity balance basis'
(outflow (-) left scale)
A-..*
250. Balance on goods and services
{surplus (+) right scale)
520. Liquidity balance
527. Net capital movements,
official settlements basis1
t-fieflTsTafe)
522. Official settlements balance
250. Balance on goods and services
(surplus (+) right scale)
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to 1960 except for series 520.
1
1ncludes unilateral transfers and errors and omissions.
BCII
NOVEMBER
1969
47
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
40-
Major Components, Except Military Grants
of Goods and Services-Con.
[Bilion dollars
530. Liquid liabilities to all foreigners, outstanding at end of period
\
532. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official agencies, outstanding at end of period
534, U.S. official reserve assets-reserve position at end of period
Current data for those series are shown on page 83. End of year figures are used prior to 1960.
NOVEMBER 1969
BCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
56-1
Goods and Services Movements,
Except Transfers Under Military Grants
Annual rate, billion dollars
52-
48-
Excess of receipts
Excess of payments
44*
Goods and services-
250. Balance on goods and services
Merchandise, adjusted536. Exports
investment income, military sales
and expenditures, and other services-
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
ltd)
NOVEMBER 1969
49
Section D
Chart
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D2^] BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Investment Income, Military Sales
and Expenditures, and Other Services
[Annual rate, bikm dollars
Excess of receipts (inflow)
E~3 Excess of payments (outflow)
Investment income—
m
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
543. Income on foreign investments
Travel545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.
Military sales and expendrtures-
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad
JL-
546. Military sales to foreigners
Transportation and other services-
549. Payments
Current data for these series are shown on page 84. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
50
NOVEMBER
1969
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
ipital Movements Plus Government
Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Annual rate, billion dollars 1
Excess of receipts (inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
Direct investments-
561. U.S. investments abroad
+Q*
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
Securities investmentsc3
565. U.S. purchases of foreign
^
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
570. Government grants and capita! transactions, net
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net
2.S4S
4S)
i©
Si
ii
i3
i^=
SI
Si
W/
i§
Current data for these series are shown on page 84. Annual totals are used prior to I960.
D
NOVEMBER 1969
51
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(July)
P
(Aug.)
I
(July) (Apr.)
F
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Receipts and Expenditures
600, Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, bit. dot.)
601. Federal receipts, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, btl. dol.)
Current data for those series are shown on page 65.
52
NOVEMBER
1969
Section D
KEY
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
IP
T
IF
T
(Map) (Feb.)
( F T
264. National defense purchases, Q (ann. rate, bit, dol.j
616. Defense Department obligations, total (bil. do).; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
621. Defense Department obligations, procurement
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
647. New orders, defense products industries
(bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-6-term]
648. New orders,
defense ^
products
(bil. dol.)
625. Military contract awards in U.S.
(bil. dot; MCD moving avg.-6-termj
Current data for these serfes are shown on page 85.
BCD NOVEMBER 1969
53
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FcharT D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(Aug.)
I
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Fob.)
C3
T
Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
54
NOVEMBER
1969
IICII
Section D
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.
•a
Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
ltd)
NOVEMBER 1969
55
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart El
ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
7801
760
?40
720-*
206. PotmtMGNP'
205. Actual GNP
207, Gap
Current data for those series are shown on page 87.
'Trend lino of 3-1/2 porcont por year through middle of 1955 from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3-3/4 percent from 4th quetrter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent thereafter.
56
NOVEMBER 1969
BCII
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
(Nov.) (Oct)
$
T
(luly)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Mai?) (Fit)
P
T
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing, Q [percent]
__^
^L. „„,
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods industries
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods
(index: 1957-59=100)
>
Current data for these series are shown on page 88.
BCD
NOVEMBER 1969
57
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Section E
["chart
Chart E2
E2 1 ANALYTICAL RATIOS—Con.
II—
I
i (flpr.)
(May) (FQfo.)
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income, Q
855. Ratio, nonagrtcuttural job openings unfilled to number of persons unemployed
858, Output per man-hour, total private rtonfarm, Q (index: 1957-59=100]
856. Real average hourly earnings, production workers,
manufacturing (1957-59 MM)
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings, nonagricuftural
production or nonsupenrtsbry workers (1957-59 dollars
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing, Q percent
Current data for these series are shown on page SB,
58
NOVEMBER
1969
ltd*
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
(Oct)
f
(July)
P
(Mag.)
I
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
P
I
Percent rising
D1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing- 21 industries (9-mo. span— , 1-mo. span—-)
06. New orders, durable goods industries-36 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-
Oil. Newly approved capita! appropriations-17 industries, NIC6 (3-Q span*~, 1-Q span*~)
034. Prof its, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher prof its-about 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-Q span]
019. Stock prices, 500 common stocks -77 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-]
023. Industrial materials prices-13 industrial materials (9-mo. span— , 1-mo. span...-)
05. Initial claims, State unemployment insurance-47 areas {percent declining; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-—)
JLD^S
4J.<D
S©
S2,
1)^1
1)3
l)^
Current data for these series are shown on pages 89 and 90.
NOVEMBER 1969
59
Section E
ANALYTICAL
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Percent rising
D41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls-30 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span
D47. Industrial production-24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)
D58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods-22 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span----]
D54. Sales of retail stores-23 types of stores (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-
Current data for those series are shown on page 91.
60
NOVEMBER
1969
ItCII
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
RATES OF CHANGE
Percent change, annual rate200. (c) GNP in current dollars [1-Q span]
205. (c) GNP in constant dollars (1-Q span)
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators (series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56)
48. Man-hours in nonagrtcultural establishments
54. Sales of retail stores
52. Personal income
47. Index of industrial production
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
*Jc
781. Index of consumer prices, all items
To locate baste data for these rates of change, consult 'Index—Series Finding Guide,* pp, 113 and 114
RU) NOVEMBER 1969
61
Section
DM
Fp
-
£
'Lit.
F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
CONSUMER PRICES
»
T
(My) (Apr.)
P
T
Consumer juicess
8©
Sil
781. United States
Si
Currant data (or tha*e carlo* or« (town on page 96.
62
NOVEMBER 1969
BCII
Section F
Chart
F2
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Current data for these series are shown on page 99.
NOVEMBER 1969
63
Section F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart F3
STOCK PRICES
49
i©
SE
it
13
!
Current data for those series arc shown on page 100.
64
NOVEMBER
1969
BCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
200. Current dollars
a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. doi.)
205, Constant (1958) dollars
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
a. Total
210. Implicit price deflator
b. Difference c. Percent
change
at annual
(Ann. rate,
rate
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
a. Total
b. Difference
(Index:
1958-100)
(Index:
1958=100)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
729.5
743.3
755.9
770.7
+19.5
+13.8
+12.6
+14.8
+10.8
+7.6
+6.8
+8.0
649.1
655.0
660,2
668.1
+12.5
+5.9
+5.2
+7.9
+8.0
+3.6
+3.2
+4.8
112.4
113.5
114.5
115.4
+1.1
+1.0
+0.9
+3.2
+4.0
+3.6
+3.2
774.2
783,5
800.4
816 ,,1
+3.5
+9.3
+16.9
+15.7
+2.0
+4.8
+8.8
+8.0
666.5
670.5
678.0
683.5
-1.6
+4.0
+7.5
+5.5
-0.8
+2.4
+4.4
+3.2
116.2
116.9
118.1
119-4
+0.8
+0.7
+1.2
+1.3
+2.8
+2.4
+4.0
+4.4
835.3
358.7
876.4
892.5
+19.2
+23.4
+17.7
+16.1
+9.6
693.3
705.8
712.8
718.5
+9.8
+11.2
+8.4
+7.2
+12.5
+7.0
+5.7
+5.6
+7.2
+4.0
+3.2
120.5
121.7
122.9
124.2
+1.1
+1.2
+1.2
+1.3
+3.6
+4.0
+4.0
+4.4
908,7
924.8
r942.8
+16.2
+16.1
r+lB.O
+7.2
+7.2
+7.6
723.1
726.7
r?30.6
+4.6
+3.6
14-3.9
+2.4
+2.0
+2.0
125.7
127.3
129.0
+1.5
+1.6
+1.7
+4.8
+5.2
+5.2
+0.9
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1
Year
and
quarter
GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT»Con.
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
215. Per capita 217. Per capita
GNP, constant
GNP, current
(1958) dollars
dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
220. National
income in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
222. Personal
income in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
226. Per capita,
Current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
;
227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter,
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
3,720
3,780
3,833
3,895
3,310
3,331
3,347
3,377
603.2
615.0
626.9
637.3
570.3
580.7
592.9
605.0
499.9
506.0
515.9
525.6
453.5
454.7
461.2
466.1
2,549
2,574
2,616
2,656
2,313
2,313
2,339
2,356
3,903
3,940
4,014
4,080
3,360
3,372
3,400
3,418
639.3
646.2
658.5
672.0
615.2
622.2
634.5
645.9
534.4
541.6
550.3
559-8
471.6
476.0
479.4
483.7
2,694
2,724
2,760
2,799
2,378
2,394
2,404
2,419
4,168
4,274
4,350
4,418
3,459
3,513
3,538
3,557
688.8
707.4
724.1
737.3
664.3
680.1
696.1
711.2
575.0
587.4
593.4
604.3
492.1
497.4
498.9
2,869
2,924
2,946
2,991
2,455
2,476
2,477
2,485
4,488
4,556
r4,633
3,571
3,580
r3,590
751.3
765.7
P780.5
724.4
740.5
r756.5
610.2
622.0
r639.0
502.6
506.2
r514.1
3,014
3,065
2,482
2,494
r2,526
502.1
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
ItUI
NOVEMBER
1969
65
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Year
and
quarter
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter,.
Third quarter..,
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
230, Total in
current dollars
231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
232. Durable goods, 233. Durable goods, 234. Automobiles
total except autos, in current dollars
total in current
in current dollars
dollars
237. Services in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
457.6
461.9
471.2
474.5
415.3
415.1
421.3
420.7
71.2
68.5
71.3
71.9
44.4
44.5
46.2
46.5
26.8
24.0
25.1
25.4
202.6
206.4
209.6
209.1
183.9
186.9
190.2
193.5
480.9
489. 8
495.7
502.6
424.4
430.5
431.9
434.3
70.0
73.5
73.3
75.2
46.9
47.6
47.9
50.0
23.1
25.9
25.4
25.2
2X3.2
2U.4
215.8
216. a
197.7
201.8
206.6
210.6
520.6
530.3
544.9
550.7
445.6
449.0
458.2
457.6
79.5
81.8
85.8
86.3
51.1
52.6
54.1
54.9
28.4
29.2
31.7
31.4
226,1
228,5
233.3
234.3
215.1
220.0
225.8
230.1
562.0
572.3
r579,8
462.9
466.2
P466.5
88.4
90.6
r89.8
57.5
30.9
31-4
P32.1
238,6
-242 (>1
235.0
240.1
244.9
59.2
P57.7
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter,.
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter .,
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
240. Total
241. Nonresidential
fixed investment
242. Nonresidential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
243. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
244. Residential
structures
245. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
117.5
122.4
119.6
126.2
78.8
80.3
83.0
84.2
28.6
28.2
29.0
28.2
50.2
52.1
54.0
56.0
27.4
26.0
24.7
22.1
+11.3
+16.2
+11.9
+19.9
113.6
109.4
117-7
123.3
83.3
83.0
83.5
85.0
29.0
27.2
27.8
27.8
54.2
55.8
55.7
57.2
21.4
23-1
26.5
+9.0
119.4
126.6
125.2
133.9
89.1
86.4
88.1
91.5
29.8
28.3
29.0
30.1
59.4
58.1
59.1
61.4
28.6
30.3
29.9
31.9
135.2
137.4
95.3
32.3
32.1
r34,7
63.0
65,7
r66.4
33.3
32.7
r3l.4
97.8
rlOl.l
+3.4
+7.8
+9.5
+1.6
+9.9
+7.2
+10.5
+6.6
+6.9
rflO.7
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised' V. preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
66
NOVEMBER
1969
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
H
Qj FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
252. Exports
of goods and
services
253. Imports
of goods and
services
260. Total
262. Federal
264. National
defense
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.);
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. fate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
+6.2
+5.6
+4.4
+4.9
42.2
42.7
43.7
44.8
36.0
37.1
39.3
39.9
148.0
153.4
160.7
165.2
72.8
75.6
80.5
82.1
55.3
58.5
63.3
65.6
75.2
77.7
80.1
83.0
+5.4
+5.8
+5.6
+3.8
45.8
45.9
46.3
46.7
40.4
40.1
40.7
42.8
174.2
178.5
181.3
186.4
87.8
90.3
91.3
93.5
69.9
71.9
73.0
74.6
86.4
88.1
90.0
92.9
+1.9
+3.4
+3.6
+1.2
47.7
50.7
53.4
50.6
45.9
47.3
49.7
49.4
193.4
198.4
202.5
206.7
96.3
99.0
100.9
101.9
76.1
77.9
78.8
79.3
97.1
99.4
101.7
104.8
+1.5
+1.6
rr2.7
47.6
57.1
r57.8
46.1
55-5
r55.2
210.0
212.9
r. 217.0
101.6
.100.6
rl03.2
79.0
78.5
r80.3
108.5
112.3
rl!3.8
1967
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
Q FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN C U R R E N T DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
Durable goods
270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1966
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter. ....
Nondurable goods
271. Change in
business inventories
(Ann, rate,
bil. do).)
274. Final sales 275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bi!. dol.)
H
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
280. Compensation
of employees
282. Proprietors1
income
284. Rental income
of persons
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
+13.2
217.6
220.9
225.3
225.4
+3.1
+5.6
+1.7
+6.7
420.1
430.9
441.4
449.7
62.1
61.2
61.1
60.8
19.6
19.8
20.1
20.3
151.9
158.3
157.7
160.0
+4.2
+1.5
+4.4
+5.6
230.7
234.2
235.5
235.9
+4.7
+1.8
+3.4
+3.9
456.2
461.1
470.7
481.7
60.8
61.7
62.6
62.3
20.6
20.8
20.9
21.0
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
166.4
168.9
173.7
176.6
+1.9
+6.8
+5.1
+7.4
246.5
250.4
256.1
256.4
-0.3
+3.1
+2.1
+3.1
495.1
507.0
519.8
532.3
63,2
63.6
64.1
64.1
21.1
21.2
21.2
21.4
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter.
181.6
185.5
p!87.8
+4.8
+4.9
P+-7.6
259.7
264.1
p267.4
+1.8
+2.1
p+3.1
546.0
558.2
r571.9
64.6
66.5
67.3
21.5
21.6
21.7
H2.2
U2.6
148.1
151.8
+8.2
+10.6
+10.2
1967
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers arefor
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NOVEMBER 1969
67
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
B
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Qj SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
288. Net interest
290. Gross saving
292. Personal
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
294. Undistributed
corporate profits
plus inventory valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
296. Capital consumption
allowances
298. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.)
1966
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
81.5
82.1
82.5
83.7
19.9
21.0
21.8
22.8
121.0
126.3
123.5
128.8
29.6
31.2
31.6
37.7
26.2
26.8
26.9
29.6
62,5
63,5
64,4
65,3
+2.7
44.7
78.3
78.3
79.1
81.1
23-5
24.3
25.1
25.9
117.5
113.6
119.9
125.6
40.0
37.7
40.7
43.1
24. a
24.1
24.6
25.5
66., a
67.9
69.2
70.4
-U.I
-16.0
-14.6
-13.4
82.5
88.2
90.6
90.3
26.7
27.5
28.4
29.3
120.5
128.8
129.1
135.4
39.9
42.3
33.2
38.0
20.4
24.1
25.6
23.6
71,7
73.0
73.7
74,6
-11.5
89.5
89.2
29.8
30.3
30.9
138.5
142.7
pl50.0
32.5
33.3
rltf.l
22,3
21.3
75.9
77.2
78.6
40.6
-3. a
1967
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
p88.7
rai.4
-10. a
-3.5
-0.9
47. a
+10.9
1*7.0
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by©. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised;" pw, preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
68
NOVEMBER 1969
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS.
TIMING CLASS
U EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Minor Economic
Process.
.. .
Year
and
month
LEADING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Job Vacancies
....
*1. Average work- 4. Nonagricultural
week of production placements,1 all
workers,1 manufac* industries
turing
(Hours)
(Thous.)
2. Accession rate,
manufacturing 1
*5. Average weekly
initial claims for
unemployment
insurance, State
programs 2
(Per 100 employees)
(Thous.)
3, Layoff rate,
manufacturing
(Per 100 employees)
49. Nonagriculturai
job openings unfilled1
46. Index of helpwanted advertising
in newspapers
(Thous.)
(1957-59=100)
1967
January
February
March
41.0
40.3
40.5
512
500
492
4.6
4.3
4.1
196
231
256
1.3
1.5
1.7
395
379
366
191
April
May
June
40.5
40.4
40.4
485
481
483
4.2
4.6
4.5
259
236
231
1.5
1.4
1.4
353
351
352
185
184
184
A.O 5
478
4 4
231
212
017
14
^50
;.£>1
i i
qcy,
i e>7
T ^
^61
1£7
220
209
204
1.3
358
1.2
35A.
"3A.A
1 A7
187
188
July
August
September
i,n 7
October
November
December
i.r\ &
/.ao
L It
L 1
40.7
40 7
476
4.5
471
L 5
L. L
12
/iO 7
A.7^
1968
January.
February
March
40.2
40 7
40 8
478
471
481
4.5
206
196
194
1.3
L ^
4 1
April
May
June
40.1
40.9
40.9
487
475
486
4.7
4.6
4.5
July
August
September
40.9
40.7
41.0
520
477
478
October
November
40.9
40.8
40.8
January
February
March
189
184
191
1.3
359
363
371
193
195
194
1.1
1.3
1.1
380
394
386
197
197
197
4.7
4.6
4.7
189
199
194
1.2
1.2
1.2
375
367
376
204
208
218
466
454
443
4.8
4.6
4.7
188
190
190
1.2
1.1
1.1
374
372
373
223
222
225
40.6
40.1
40.9
448
459
431
4.9
4.6
4.6
179
186
184
1.1
1.1
1.2
372
375
365
224
230
231
April
May
June
40.8
40.7
40.7
452
427
460
4.9
4.8
E> 176
E> i.o
1.1
1.1
377
387
383
233
232
228
July
August
LO 7
ore*
*U7
December
13
194
1969
September
October
November
December
5..0
40.6
r40 8
446
427
L #
4 5
P40.5
180
201
r426
D/J. 8
1Q7
196
201
TD405
(NA)
pno
-] o
1 1
qi r
ooy
<,<.!+
nl 2
v.QJ
A
rjifO
[R)r23 5
(m
^im ^;
r\QOQ
pj<>y
p227
NOTE- Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated'by IR)- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5 f 14P 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93)r current low values are indicated by
|R>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk{*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
1
Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows; Series 1, high value (41.6) reached in Feb. 1966: Series
4, high value (586), in May 1962; Series 2, high value (5.2), in Mar. 1966; Series 49, high value (437), in July 1966.
Data
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published ty source agency.
BCII
NOVEMBER 1969
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q| EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.
Comprehensive Employment
48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
(Thous.)
*43. Unemployment rate, total
(Percent)
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1
(Percent)
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
(Percent)
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)
1967
January
February , ,
March
131.38
130.64
130.73
65,342
65,379
65,459
70, 137
70,188
69,935
3.7
3.7
3.7
2.3
2.4
1.8
1.7
2.6
1.0
0.6
0.6
0.6
April
May
June
130.36
130.74
131.10
65,469
65,563
65,747
70,144
69,804
70,407
3.8
3-9
3.9
2.6
2.6
1.9
1.9
1.9
0.6
0.6
0.6
July., .
August
September
131.16
131.77
131.98
65,799
66,016
66,003
70,649
70,721
70,929
3.9
3.8
4.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
1.8
1.9
1.8
0.6
0.6
0.6
October
November
December
131.75
133.02
132.79
66,083
66,600
66,734
71,023
71,135
71,293
4.2
3.8
3.7
2.3
2.3
2.2
1.8
1.8
1.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
January
February
March
131 60
133 . 29
133 . 53
66 720
67,165
67,286
71 124
71,566
71, 786
3 6
2 3
17
0 6
3.7
3*7
2.3
2.2
1.7
1.7
0.6
April
May
June
133.54
134.21
134.75
67,466
67,550
67,816
71, 737
72,027
72,156
3.5
3.6
3.7
2.1
2.2
2.2
1.6
1.6
1.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
July
August
September
135.24
135.57
135.75
67,945
68,088
68,195
72,195
72,222
72,349
3.7
3.5
3.6
2.3
2.3
2.1
1.6
1.6
1.6
0.6
October
November
December
1969
January
135.89
135.83
136.19
68,427
68,664
68,875
72,477
72,682
72,923
3.6
3.4
3.3
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.6
1.6
1.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
137.07
137.08
138.44
69,199
69,487
69,710
73,477
73,848
74,035
3.3
M> 3-3
1.4
1.4
i>i.4
0.4
0.4
3.4
2.1
2.1
2.0
[H> 0.4
3.5
3.5
3-4
2.0
[H> 2.0
2 1
1.5
1.5
1.5
0.5
0.5
2 0
2 1
16
1 C'
O R
O • 5e
2.7
1968
February
March
April
May
June,
July
August. ...
September
October
November
December
138.42
139.15
139.43
69,789
70,013
70,300
73,941
73,460
73,966
IQQ J.A
70 2A.7
v»7O ^nn
7/i "32 ^
Q
rjt
3O
frj\ „•} 1 r\ i rt
W) rX4<J . JLo
vij.n rft
Tji-ao -jA
r«7n ArtA
fuS
67^
(n/ n7O
PfUjOf-?
CCO
/4,2?J>
rji
££.Q
fit, ooy
rn\ 7 A QQ^
6
C
4f\
.u
2 n
1 Q
n2 2
0 6
0.5
0.5
X .r,/f
17
0.5
O c
•3
0
^
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [H) ; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93)p current low values are indicated by
ID, Series^nu'mbcrs are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book, Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p\ preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
70
NOVEMBER 1969
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
QU PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
TIMING CLASS ....
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Comprehensive Production
*200. Gross na- *205. Gross national product
tional product
in 1958 dollars
in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1967
January
February
March
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Comprehensive Income
*47. Index of
industrial production
(1957-59-100)
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
53. Wages and *56. Manufacsalaries in min- turing and trade
ing, manufactur- sales
ing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
57. Final sales *54. Sales of
(series 200
retail stores
minus series
245)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
774.2
666.5
158.3
156.7
156.6
612.8
614.9
617.9
162.7
161.4
161.2
88,078
37,323
87,632
765.2
April
May
June
763.5
156 7
155 6
155*7
619 3
670.5
621 2
626 i
161 2
160 9
161.7
87 656
88 016
89 184
780 2
July
August
September
800.4
678.0
156.4
158.3
156.8
630.4
635.2
637.8
163.2
165.0
165.1
88, 508
89,967
90,113
792.6
26 325
26,298
26,899
October
November
December
8]6.1
683.5
157.2
159.8
162.1
639.0
645 . 6
653.0
165.0
168.4
170.2
89,072
90,770
92,147
806.6
26,129
26,396
26,545
January
February
March
835.3
693-3
161.2
162.0
163.0
656.3
664.6
671.9
170.4
173.6
174.3
93,184
93,758
94,463
833.6
27,043
27,449
27,996
April
May
June
858.7
705.8
162.5
164.2
165.8
674.2
680.2
685.9
174.3
177.1
177.9
94, 552
96,069
97,423
848 ,,8
27,791
28,158
28,320
July
August
September
876.4
712.8
166.0
164.6
165.1
691.0
696.1
701.1
179.0
179.7
181.8
98,368
97,083
r98,549
869-2
28,674
28,760
r28,3l6
a 66 o
892.5
718.5
167.5
168.7
706 2
711.5
716.0
183.3
184.6
186.7
99,675
100,142
98,671
882.0
28 697
28 806
28,347
908.7
723.1
169.1
170.1
171.4
718.7
723.9
730.7
187.1
187.6
190.7
100,137
101,390
101,510
902.1
28,989
29,289
28, 916
924.8
726.7
.
171.7
172.5
173.7
735.3
740.0
746.1
192.1
193.1
195.3
102,352
103,232
104,127
917.9
29,386
29,371
[H}r942 8
H)r730.6
0)174.6
174.3
rl73.9
751.4
757.5
r?60.7
196.0
198.1
r!98.6
r!04,201
r 104, 644
[H)pl05,859
H>r932.0
29,090
r29,346
r29,249
P173.3
(H>P763.1
H)pl98.7
25,828
25,478
25,758
95 PAD
2*5 Q66
26 488
1968
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
(NA)
E> 29,442
p29,371
NOTE1 Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated'byEV for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44 t 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
fFJ)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; V, preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
KCII
NOVEMBER 1969
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Qj FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
LEADING INDICATORS
F
°rmap^«neSS
*12. Index of net
business formation
Year
and
month
(1957-59-100)
New Investment Commitments
13. Number of new *6. Value of
business incorpora- manufacturers'
new orders,
tions
durable goods
industries
(Number)
8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1
(1957-59-100)
(Bil.dol.)
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
{Bil.dol.)
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
(Bil.dol.)
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, machinery and
equipment industries
(Bil. dol.)
1967
5.92
6.13
6.16
5.72
23.54
126
U3
1A9
5.07
5.02
4.9£
16,760
17,627
17,799
24.04
25.30
25.77
138
154
164
6.00
6.03
6.40
5.72
5.08
5.09
5.38
108 4
110 7
110 3
16 ^oo
17 674
18,118
2A Q2
1L9
165
6 24
6.57
6.43
5.82
110.6
112.7
113.8
18,000
18,403
18,168
25.68
25.85
28.06
168
166
6.66
6.42
6.43
5.74
5.31
5.37
5.50
January
February
March
,.
113.5
114.7
113.8
17,223
18,014
17,974
26.84
rl66
r!52
rl69
6.50
6.51
6.67
5. BO
5.47
5.38
5.38
April
18,659
18,796
19,197
27-37
26.70
rl64
172
160
6.20
6.62
7.20
5.74
June
112.8
112.7
1H.5
5.49
5.45
5.97
July
August
September
119.0
119.1
121 2
20, on
19,530
26.92
27.33
187
192
6.96
7.85
?0 QAA
28 38
1 A3
7 20
October
November
December
12^ 9
21 ^9/L
21 155
20 2Q2
30 28
29 32
2*9 ^8
200
183
179
8 18
7.29
20 ^78
22, 199
29 68
21,353
29 70
r204
20*>
rl82
123.9
123.1
123.6
23,467
23,230
23,711
30.94
30.00
1 oy. £
rjj\ v.oq 771
o2^ 1SS
January
February
March
102.2
103.2
103.3
16,703
15,987
16,244
23.94
April
June
103.7
105.0
108.1
juiy
August
September
October
November
December
May
24,15
25 88
25.18
168
171
5 i&
5.47
5.35
1968
May
123 4
12*; ^
26.81
28.00
27.17
5.71
6.03
6.'i9
5 92
6 15
6 63
6.09
6 24
7 79
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
125 2
[H>125.8
123 2
•nlSfii 2
pU23 1
(NA)
p23 ,383
(m)
30.48
29.17
on
ryj
?O LA
[H> r32 . 14
p31 75
183
210
r!86
r?.49
7.10
6.43
6.53
8.26
8.01
r7.85
y»7 7&
7 60
173
H> r8.*6S
195
p8.X3
vl AO
6 20
6.51
6.41
7.50
fuXsn
1A
0
in/*" -
6.65
7 98
7.84
fuS-n?
[M/ P f - 7^
U
6 15
6 34
fu\ J«7 qe
In/
f *^3
p6.58
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Currant high values are
indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14r 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
|j).
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at tho back of the book, Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). TheV indicates revised; V, preliminary; "8", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
This ia a copyright@d series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from MeDraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
72
NOVEMBER 1969
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
0 FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
New Investment Commitments-Con.
Backlog of Investment Commitments
Investment Expenditures
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial
buildings1
(Mil. sq.ft. floor
space)
7. New private
nonfarm housing
units started
(Ann. rate, thous.)
*29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized by
local building
permits
(1957-59=100)
96. Manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
(Bil.dol.)
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing
(Bil.dol.)
*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment, total
69. Machinery and
equipment sales
and business construction expenditures
(Ann* rate, bit. dol.) (Ann, rate, bit. dol.)
(3)
1967
January
February
March
49.09
57.84
56.14
1,079
1,132
1,067
83.1
78.9
81.9
77-36
77.02
76.04
April
May
June
58.27
54.72
62.30
1,099
1,254
1,214.
90.7
91.1
97.9
75.88
76.52
77.31
July
August
September
56.72
61.66
60.45
1,356
1,381
1,415
96.4
99.4
102.3
77.82
77.94
77.94
October
November
December
58.42
63.17
64 08
1,478
1,567
1,235
106.9
102.2
116.7
78.82
79.13
80.58
January
February
March
£>L $1
61.39
66 61
1 J.QO
07 y
AO A Q
1,499
1 A.7Q
120.0
1?1 4
80.59
81 75
April
May
June
66 96
66 35
1 ^6?
1 ILS
113 7
106 9
July
August
September
October
November
December
61.65
76.75
76.90
75.53
61.50
74.67
74.92
76.28
60.90
76.64
77.90
78.58
62.70
76.79
77.92
79.94
20.42
20.25
20.42
20.41
1968
1 3A.&
107 o
82 24
81 90
80 97
71 65
66 15
61 59
1 507
1 L.Q6
1 570
107.7
107 8
116 4
79.68
80 IB
80 57
79 63
69 70
71.47
1,541
1 705
1,492
115.2
119.1
122.3
81.89
82.43
84.07
H) 94.41
69.98
63.50
E> 1, 845
1,664
1,567
117.2
123.4
118.7
84.43
84.99
85.16
April
May
June
65 82
85.60
r80.37
1,548
1,495
1,446
IH> 125-5
110.6
112.0
86.46
[H>86.88
85.91
July
August
September
r73 70
n Q&
65.87
1,349
rl, 370
rl, 513
102.6
104.0
rlOO.4
86.37
85 . 98
r86.38
October
November
December
85 75
pi, 329
P93.5
p86.26
A 7 OQ
£0 77
19 01
64.75
80.79
80 59
62 60
SI SQ
80 32
80 86
18 93
63 20
80.09
82 40
85.08
65.90
86.15
$8.21
85.46
68.90
90.00
91.42
90.31
E> 70.20
88.84
89.84
91.86
a72.25
91.18
r94.20
[H>p98.64
19 44
20.02
1969
January
February
March
20.48
1*21.52
fu>p22.26
(H/0
a?2.10
NOTE- Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated'by H> • for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
|H>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division.
2
Data for 1st quarter 1968 to date are not comparable with earlier data. See "New Features and Changes for This Issue/1 page
iii, August 1969 issue.
NOVEMBER 1969
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
ffl
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
^^M
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
1967
January
February
March
245. Change in *31. Change in
business 1
book value of
inventories
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total1
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
bil. dol.)
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
Inventories
37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
inventories1
(Percent
reporting)
20. Change in
book value of
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.1
and supplies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
26. Production
materials, companies reporting
commitments 60 l
daysorlonger(gy
(Percent
reporting)
32. Vendor
performance,
Companies reporting slower
deliveries®1
(Percent
reporting)
25. Change in
unfit led orders,
durable goods
industriesl
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods,
book value
{Bil. dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bii.dol.)
+5.7
+5.0
48
45
46
+2.6
+0.4
+0.6
72
67
68
48
51
38
-0.63
-0.34
-0.98
138 .IB
138.66
239.07
25.43
25.68
25.82
X39.62
139.87
26.22
26.41
26.36
140.27
140.84
26.43
ux.ia
26.64
+ 12.0
-t=9.0
LEADING INDICATORS
April
May
June
+3.4
+6.6
+3.0
-0.7
37
40
43
-1.6
-0.4
-0.9
67
66
68
39
36
38
-0.17
+0.65
+0.79
July
August
September
+5.6
+6.8
+4.0
40
42
44
+1.4
+0.2
-2.2
61
66
61
41
43
44
+0.50
+7.8
October
November
December
+9.5
+2.5
+13.1
+U.6
45
46
54
+0.1
+0.6
+0.3
62
63
64
50
51
48
+0.88
+0.31
+1.45
+1.6
+4.0
+8.5
•+4,1
55
53
52
-0.5
+1.2
+0.9
64
61
64
50
55
54
+9.9
+15.9
+15.9
+8.5
51
55
59
+4.0
+4-7
+1.7
68
64
67
+7.2
+6.4
+10.2
+9.9
59
55
40
+3-5
+2.0
-0.9
+16.4
+9 8
+11.2
42
44
43
+1.9
+10 5
+3-9
+15.0
+12.8
43
47
49
-0.4
-0.4
+12.9
+13-5
+7.9
49
52
50
+1.3
+16 4
14-12 3
51
51
48
+1 1
-0 5
+0 7
53
(NO
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
+6.6
+6.9
tH-10 7
-a.no A
(m)
-2 2
+0.6
+4.0
+2.8
-1.1
+0.12
+0.01
:39.ai
26.61
141.39
:42.48
143.69'
26.63
26.70
+0.10
+1.16
144.03
144.74
145.08
26.97
27.09
27-21
52
52
52
+0.48
-0.34
-0.93
U6.40
147.73
148.44
27.35
27.59
27.64
68
66
60
56
46
46
-1.29
+0.49
27.79
+0.40
148.97
H9.82
150.65
62
60
60
52
60
56
+1.32
+0.54
+1.64
152.02
152.83
153.76
28.64
28.92
57
58
63
62
61
6l
+0.36
+0.56
+0.16
154.09
155.34
156*40
29.08
65
64
66
68
69
70
+1.30
+0.42
-0.97
157.48
158.60
XS9*^6
29.98
30.45
59
63
fa
66
68
66
+0 46
-0 38
r+0 39
160.63
r'l6l.66
fy^til62 69
30 66
^0 96
[H\ 31 10
63
65
p-0.12
(NO
(NO
-0.09
26.81
28.15
28.44
29.13
29.41
29.61
30.41
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movernent. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©
Current high values are
indicated by [H> ; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
(B>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
1
Serles that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 245, high value (+19.8) reached 2n 4th quarter 1966;
Series 31, high value (+20.0), in June 1966; Series 37, high value (63), in Nov. 1964; Series 20, high value (^.7), in Aug. 1966;
Series 26, high value (75), in Oct. 1966; Series 32, high value (86), in Mar. 1966; Series 25, high value (+1.&0, in Sept. 1966.
74
NOVEMBER 1969
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Qj PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive ComStock Prices
modity Prices
*23. Index of *19. Index of
stock prices,
industrial
materials
500 common
1
stocks®
prices©
Year
and
month
(1957-59-100) (1941-43=10)
Profits and Profit Margins
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
22. Ratio of
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
indus.1
(Percent)
*16. Corporate profits
after taxes1
15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all mfg.
corp.1
(Cents)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Unit Labor Costs
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, mfd.
goods ®
68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per unit
of gross prod.
(1958 dol.),
nonfin. corp.
(1957-59-100) 1957-59=100) (1957-59=100) (Dollars)
*17, Ratio,
price to unit
labor cost
index, mfg.1
55. Index of
wholesale
prices, indus.
commod.®
*62. Index of
labor cost
per unit of
output, mfg.
(1957-59-100)
1967
January
February
March
106.8
105.2
102.5
84.45
87.36
89.42
46!l
li!9
5^6
102.1
101.9
101.2
105.8
106.0
106.0
106.4
106.4
106.3
0.701
104.2
104.4
105.0
April
May
June
100.1
99.6
99.8
90.96
92.59
91.43
46^4
11^9
5.*6
101.4
100.8
100.3
106,0
106.0
106.0
106.2
106.3
106.6
0.702
104.7
105.5
106.3
July
August
September
98.3
98.1
97.8
93.01
94.49
95.81
47!6
ll!?
4^9
100.3
100.2
99.6
106.0
106.3
106.5
106.8
106.8
107.1
0.769
106.5
106.6
107.5
October
November
December
97.7
99.1
100.1
95.66
92.66
95.30
49^9
12!!
sii
100.0
100.2
100.9
106.8
107.1
107.4
107.1
107.3
107.6
0.712
107.1
107.1
106.6
99.8
99.5
100.1
95.04
90.75
89.09
47^9
Ill 5
5!!
99.8
99.7
100.0
107.8
108.3
108.6
108.1
108.7
108.9
0.719
108.3
109.0
108.9
April
May
June
98.3
96.1
95.6
95.67
97.87
100.53
49.7
llii
5^6
100.0
99.5
99.8
108.8
108.6
108.8
109.1
109.1
109.4
0.718
109.1
109.7
109.6
July
August
September
94.4
94.8
96.1
100.30
98.11
101.34
50.0
11.2
5!!
99.8
98.3
98.1
108.8
108.9
109.2
109.7
109.5
109.9
0.722
109.9
111.4
112.0
October
November
December
97.5
100.3
100.7
103.76
105.40
E>106.48
51^6
11.4
5.1
98.5
98.8
98.7
109.7
109.9
110.2
110.0
110.3
110.5
0.732
103.4
106.3
106.9
102.04
101.46
99.30
E>52!2
11*3
5^0
99.2
100.2
100.0
110.9
111.4
112.0
111.3
111.7
112.2
0.745
113.2
111.5
112.2
April
May
June
109.3
110.4
111.6
101.26
104.62
99.14
ii!i
4*9
99.6
100.0
100.0
112.1
112.2
112. 2
112.4
112.8
113.2
0.755
112.9
112.8
113.2
July
August
September
112.4
115.0
117.4
94.71
94.18
94.51
(NA)
rlOO.3
r99.0
99.0
112.4
112.8
113.2
113.5
113.6
113.9
i>pO,766
rl!3.2
rlU.7
115.1
1968
January
February
March
111.7
in. 6
112.0
1969
January
February
March
October
November
December
... .
. .
115.6
-115.8
3
95.52
95-73
5!! 8
P5616
pio!5
P99.2
113.8
H)piu.o
in. 6
®pU5.5
[H>P11A.7
NOTE 1 Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by [fi>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93)f current low values are indicated by
H>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and."NA", not available.
^-Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 23, high value (123.5) reached in Mar. 1966;
Series 22, high value (13.9), in 1st quarter 1966; Series 15, high value (5.8), in 1st quarter 1966; Series 17, high value
(105.2), in July 1966. 3Average for November,3, 10, and 18. 3 Average for November 18, 19, and 20.
NOVEMBER 1969
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
0 MONEY AND CREDIT
LEADING INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
Credit Difficulties
Flows of Money and Credit
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
month
33. Net change in
mortgage debt
held by fin. inst.
and life insurance companies
(Ann. rate,
oil. dot.)
110. Total pri*113. Net change 112. Change in
business loans1 vate borrowing
in consumer
installment
debt
(Ann. rate,
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)
mil, dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
Revised s
1967
January
February
March
(Ann. ratet
14. Current lia- 39. Delinquency
bilities of bus- rate, 30 days
ness failures© and over, total
installment loans
+3.40
[ft) +16. 68
+02.84
+11.28
+9.72
+12.42
+10.69
+2.42
+1.42
+2.84
+7.04
-0.55
+6.83
56,756
108.1?
113.45
119. 3^
June
+6.00
+13.32
+13.56
-3.48
[H> +11.76
+11.04
+12.67
+15.31
+16.97
+1.08
+2.28
+3.84
+9.25
+1.63
+8.09
58,652
103.83
93.37
104.64
July..
August. .
September
+13.44
+10.20
+9.12
+10.20
+8.76
+5-40
+17.75
+21.61
+21.20
+3.08
+4.78
+3.76
+16.09
-9.19
-2.15
66,796
72.55
108.90
93.94
October
November
December
+7.6S
+8.28
+7.32
+5.40
+5.28
+3.36
+19.82
+21.32
+20.33
+3.79
+4.69
+4.31
+5.36
+2.66
+8.39
79,384
81.63
69.98
195.45
l.*74
January
February
March,
+4.32
+7.80
+7.44
+6.00
+4.56
+5.88
+20.30
+19.27
+19.72
+4.79
+8.83
+7.46
+11.47
-2.39
+3.78
69,608
104.49
79.60
i!si
April
+4.56
+7.08
+5.76
+5.88
+11.04
+9.00
+19.07
+21.62
+18.14,
+7.69
+8.78
+8.59
+19.57
+2.09
+5.78
70,236
July
August
September
+12.48
+12.96
+9.36
+8.88
+8.88
+2.52
+17.75
+18.24
r+18.84
+10.28
+11.21
+8.58
+14.02
-4.25
+4.55
85,772
90.2?
65.7?
^.8.65
l'.56
October
November
December
+10.56
+13.80
+20.39
+21.68
SD+25.37
D +11.36
+10.01
+9-30
+10.70
+11.27
+14.10
65.38
|fl> §a.6s
[H)1.47
97,748
+12.12
+2.52
+11.28
+7.44
January
February
March
-2.16
-0.96
+1.20
+6.12
+3-12
+3.00
+20.90
+23.66
+20.09
+7.69
+9.58
+7.75
+17.10
+8.39
+5.35
April
May
June
+3.96
-1.20
-0.60
+7.92
+1.20
+4.20
+21.96
+19.40
+22.78
+9.12
+10.15
+9.54
+16.16
+9.08
+7.25
July
August
September
-8.40
r-10. 56
-1.20
+1.80
r-1.80
0.00
+16.56
r+21.07
pt-20.88
+7.46
+7.20
+8.38
+2.74
r-5.26
1*8.96
October
November
December
P-l-56
IH-0.60
WO
(NO
Ph7.6l
April
May
-1.44
+9.77
l.'ea
1.90
l.*72
l.*65
1.66
1968
May
June
as. 59
ao.ii
1.59
91.41
74.66
1.57
&3.41
i.'n
90/956
75.03
S9.99
g>4.1£
i!si
D 99/288
118.76
92. 6G
91.92
F&0,552
112.73
62.83
73.70
l'.7Q
L16.44
(M)
1969
1.60
1.64
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Currant high values are
indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), currant low values are indicated by
(H). Series"numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
^•This series reached its high value (+21.11) in July 1966.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
3
76
NOVEMBER 1969
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q| MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Resets
93. Free
reserves ©
Year
and
month
(Mil. dol.)
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt
Money Market Interest Rates
114. Treasury
bill rate©
(Percent)
116. Corporate 115. Treasury
bond yields© bond yields©
(Percent)
(Percent)
117. Municipal 66. Consumer
bond yields© installment
debt
(Percent)
(Mil. dol,)
*72. Commercial
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks
(Mil. dol.)
Interest Rates on Business
Loans and Mortgages
*67. Bank
rates on shortterm business
loans, 35
cities©
118. Mortgage
yields, residential ©
(Percent)
(Percent)
1967
4.76
January
February
March.
--16
-4
+236
4.55
4.29
5.53
5.35
5.55
4 40
4.47
4.45
3 54
3.52
3.55
7A 1 91
76 309
76 546
60 936
61, 138
6l *S92
April .
May
June
+175
+269
+297
3 85
3.64
3-48
5 59
5.90
6.06
4 51
4.76
4.86
3 60
3.89
3.96
76 636
76 826
77 14-6
62 209
62 580
July
August
September
+272
+298
L 31
4 28
4 45
6 06
6 30
6 33
4 86
4 02
L 95
L 99
3 99
4 12
77 /,O3
77 80T
7ft 11 A
A? fti 7
A3 2Z.,6
October
November
December
+160
+270
+107
4 59
4 76
5 01
6 53
6 87
6 93
5 19
5 44
5 36
/L 30
L 3A.
/L A.3
7ft A.30
78 821
79 180
January
February
March
+1M
+38
-315
5.08
4.97
5.14
6.57
6.57
6.80
5.18
5.16
5.39
4.29
4.31
4.54
79,579
80 315
80, 937
65,363
April
May
June
-413
-326
5.36
6.79
5.28
c £2
7 no
c Afi
4.34
4 CJ
en
4 ou
81,578
ft? 3~i n
67 446
A7 ^nA
ftQ flOA
A*? t HCYJ
Of
(\)£
oq
4 OJ
4 oi
), qs
rt^j , ftft^
o
t5o j
Aft
7ft
DCS, "1JLfo
Aft
AQC;
Oo^oyp
A9 99^
oy,
*£<:;)
ftA /i 79
ft7
^13
O f , .7-IO
+268
A 62
6.13
A 20
62 3A.5
5 95
A 1,1.
6 51
A9 Q1 1
c oc
A
c.'}
o.pjj
6 60
6 63
6 65
63 59?
6A. 0*53
6 46
6 35
5 96
6
77
6 81
65 102
1968
OJ 1
~Ji+±.
July
August
September
226
19O
-1 12
October
November
December
-167
9J.c;
5
CI
O4
c od
C
-If)
C
r>O
5 33
-3io
G. i.Q
c op
-480
6 18
596
6 16
6 08
7
(Y)
,\J£
5
O'3
•<2
A Ql
A c/,
no
5 .uy
6 69
c f)9
6 88
7 on
/. J.Q
7 9ft
c p/.
5 3A
5 66
7 ?9
7 33
7 76
c 7;,
5 86
6 05
4
C
Al
4 60
4 82
fty
tSi^jfti
O.L7^
ft^
cor)
o!>,.3^<-
65 734
66,063
6 36
6 94
A fty
71
^A
r-L,;>-pc>
88 088
ftft 7^9
ftQ
^^7
07,P*tr
70 /, i fj
fVM
WA
A ;^
7{-fj
o<
A 'ftQ
1o
7 .4^
0C
7 OP
7^ft
70 2A/i
70 O J . A
A 81
6 78
6 83
A AT
OQ
7 .^7
QA
f OO
7
7
Cf)
1969
January
February
March
-701
July
August
September
October
November
December
5 26
^ 19
90 933
7A A^O
5 33
5 76
91 779
77 176
77 008
6 07
c 7C
6 07
6 no
QQ ±yo
-i q^.
y,},
Q3 79A
fu\ QJ, AQ/,
7A Aft7
-,77 i pij-
(NO
[H>P78,275
8 04
1 rV7A
7 OO
8 06
-y4o
r 831
7 m
ft 05
8 36
(u\ A 3?
H>8.46
6.27
Ql L
p-1,006
fu\7 IT
7.04
7 5A.
7.62
7/i AQft
on 173
6 15
6.08
6.49
-844
in\ _i_ 102
-1 064
April
May
June
f*c
;, QtJ
5 ftA.
5 85
6 05
fuS A ?A
6.09
92 S7A.
7/i A7A
r ( o4U5
77 990
00
7 o<
CMA^
{NA)
7O
Q
• 77
SAC
8 06
7 ftA
8 flA
8 OP
0C
8 .30
8qA
0 t
fu\
£> Oi
[H/ 8.82
8 40
(H}8.48
....
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by H>- for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H>
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
ItCII
NOVEMBER
1969
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
Q COMPOSITE INDEXES
Year
and
month
810. Twelve
leaders, reverse
trend adjusted 1
(series 1,5, 6,
10, 12, 16, 17,
19,23,29,31,
113)
820. Five
coinciders,
estimated aggregate economic activity
(series 41 ,43,
830. Six
laggers (series
44,61,62,67,
71,72)
47, 52, 56)
Leading Indicator Subgroups
813. Marginal
employment adjustments
(series 1,2, 3,
5)2
(1963-100)
814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,
12, 29)
(1963^100)
815. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 23, 25,
31,37) 2
(1963-100)
816. Profitabil- 817. Sensitive
financial flows
ity (series 16,
17, 19)a
(series 33, 85,
112, 113)
(1983=100)
(1963-100)
(1963-100)
(1963-100)
January ,
February
March
126.3
124.9
125.0
Hl.2
1A0.9
1A1.5
150.0
149.5
149.7
106.4
103.0
101.8
103.1
103.3
103.4
103.2
101.6
100.7
113.8
113.6
1X3.8
95.8
97.1
97.9
April
June
125.6
127.0
128.7
141.4
141.3
U2.3
149.8
149.6
150.3
102.3
103-8
103.8
104.5
105.5
107.9
99.5
100.2
100.2
114.3
114.4
1J3.8
95.5
93. 4
99.8
July
August
September
129.0
131.5
131.6
U3.1
144.5
143. 7
150.6
150.4
151.4
103.8
105.0
104.9
107.4
109.3
108.9
99.9
100.3
99.5
114.5
1U.7
115.0
100.3
98.7
97.6
October
November
December
132.7
134.4
136.8
143.2
146.8
149.0
152.0
152.9
154.8
104.9
105.7
105.7
109.8
110.1
112.5
100,9
102.0
104.2
i;5.6
115.6
116.5
99.7
100.0
99.3
January.. .
February
March
134.6
137.3
137.8
149.9
151.7
152.9
157.2
159.0
159.7
104.6
105.8
105.3
110.4
112.6
113.0
102.0
102.3
102.8
115.4
114.0
i:4.1
100.5
100.4
100.6
April
June
137.9
139.1
140.1
153.7
154.9
156.3
162.4
163.7
164.4
105.9
106.3
106.8
111.3
111.1
U2.2
102.7
101.8
100.9
1X6.0
116.5
117.4
102.6
102.8
101.7
July
August
September
141.6
U2.0
143.6
157.3
157.8
159.0
164.1
166.7
167.7
107.1
106.2
107.0
113.8
114.9
116.1
100.1
101.6
100.1
117.4
115.8
116.7
[6)104.3
October , .
November
December
U7.3
U7.2
148.6
160.2
162.1
163.0
168.6
170.7
173.7
107.3
107.1
107.2
118.8
117.6
119.1
102.1
101.9
102.9
117.8
1X8.7
119.0
102.1
103.2
103.4
January
February
March
U8.6
150.7
150.3
164.3
166.0
167.0
176.4
179.1
181.2
107.7
106.1
107.1
119.0
119.9
117.9
102.0
104.5
104.3
U8.5
119.2
118.5
101.6
101.7
99.6
April . .
152.7
152.8
151.7
167.6
168.9
170.9
182,8
184.7
387.3
108.5
107.6
107.1
D 119.9
117.9
110.6
119.6
rH8.0
102.8
100.8
101.5
July
August
September
r 152.1
r!51.7
H> 153.6
rl70.9
rl?2.3
rl?1.5
r!89.9
rl93.6
r!94.7
106.6
106.3
p!06.6
117.9
117.5
rll6.9
rn.5.4
rU8.4
105.9
105.9
104.3
106.6
r!06.2
rl07.2
98.2
r97.6
plOO.O
October
November
December
P152.4
®p!72.3
.H>P3.95.2
(N/0
pU6.8
p!06.7
(1963-100)
1967
May ....
1968
May
101.5
99.6
1969
May
June
rll7.7
ms.s
pn6.i
«O
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement, Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [R>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43,44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
(H) . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart 88). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary: ue", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and *NA", not available.
'•Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators, For historical
data prior to reverse trend adjustment, see series 811 in appendix C of the September 1969 issue.
s
Series that reached their high values prior to 1967 are as follows: Series 813, high value (109.4) reached in March 1966;
Series 815, high value (H0.1) reached in March 1966; Series 816, high value (120.1) reached in February 1966,
78
NOVEMBER 1969
ltd*
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment
a. Actual
expenditures
410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value
b. Second
c. First
anticipations as anticipations as
percent of actual percent of actual
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Percent)
(Bil. dol.)
(Percent)
412, Manufactur- 414. Condition
ers' inventories, of manufacturers'
total book value inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low
(Bil. dol.)
(Percent)
416. Adequacy 435. Index of
of mfrs.' capac- consumer
sentiment
ity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
(First quarter
excessive
(Percent)
1966=100)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
58.00
60.10
61.25
62.80
98.6
99.2
100.6
99.7
98.0
100.7
101.2
131.2
134.0
135.3
137.5
70.0
72.7
75.5
78.1
11
14
19
26
47
45
46
42
100.0
95.7
91.2
88.3
61.65
61.50
60.90
62.70
101.5
100.1
102.6
99.0
102.9
101.2
103.1
99.9
135.0
135.6
137.4
140.7
80.1
81.1
81.7
82.8
30
29
23
22
40
40
41
38
92.2
94.9
96.5
92.9
64.75
62.60
6.3.20
65.90
100.1
103.2
102.7
102.0
100.5
102.7
104.5
98.9
145-2
149.
152,
156,
$3.8
85.6
87.1
88.6
22
22
21
16
35
35
40
42
95-0
92.4
92.9
92.1
68.90
70.20
a72.25
a72.10
104.0
102.6
(NO
103.3
100.9
159.2
161.8
al66.2
al67.2
90.3
92.2
a94.5
a96.8
18
19
43
38
95.1
91.6
86.4
97.8
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
(NO
(NA)
AGGREGATE SERIES»Con.
Year
and
quarter
420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reporting-
430, Household purchases of new cars
425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households
a. Actual
a. No change b. Higher
income
in income
(Percent)
(Percent)
c. Lower
income
(Percent)
a. Increase
in income
(Percent)
b. Increase c. Decrease (quarterly)
less decrease in income
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
mil. cars)
2-quarter moving average
b. Actual
(Ann. rate,
mil, cars)
c. Anticipated
(Ann. rate,
mil, cars)
d. Anticipated
as percent of
actual
(Percent)
7.4
7.6
7.6
96
92
92
7-8
7.6
7.9
8.3
99
92
9,6
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
52.4
55.2
53.9
54.2
35.4
32.9
34.2
33.3
11.2
11.0
11.0
11.6
52.3
47.5
48.1
51.2
36.0
40.9
40.3
38.0
11.1
10.9
11.0
10.1
16.0
15.8
17.4
16.2
10.1
9.9
11.2
10.2
52.9
53.0
50.8
50.7
36.4
35.9
37.3
37.4
10.0
10.5
10.8
11.1
19.3
18.3
18.4
16.7
16.5
18.1
18.6
17.6
7.3
7-5
6.8
6.8
7.4
7.4
7.1
6.8
5.9
5.9
6.2
6.0
7.4
7.9
8.7
7.8
7.1
7.7
8.3
8.3
13.8
12.5
1.1.9
11.2
5.5
5.8
6.5
5.5
8.1
8.4
8.1
7.9
8.3
8.2
11.3
1.2.0
13.Q
•11.6
5.2
6.1
5.6
6.0
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter,
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
8.0
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The Y indicates revised; V, preliminary;
V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
ltd*
NOVEMBER 1969
79
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter
D440. New orders, manufacturing1
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
0442. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade1
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
D446« Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade1
D444. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade1
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
71
72
69
73
82
82
80
81
65
65
64
69
75
74
76
76
71
70
72
74
80
82
82
82
78
78
79
80
80
83
82
81
70
73
72
74
74
80
78
73
79
82
82
84
82
86
86
84
57
60
81
80
76
82
85
83
80
70
74
68
78
79
77
76
80
84
78
86
88
86
83
59
60
60
60
60
60
1968
First quarter,..
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
60
60
5S
60
60
^
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
60
60
60
59
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
74
70
76
DIFFUSION INDEXES--Con.
Year
and
quarter
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade1
Actual
Anticipated
Selling prices
D460. Manufacturing
and trade1
Actual
Anticipated
D462. Manufacturing1
Actual
Anticipated
D464. Wholesale trade1
Actual
Anticipated
D4S6. Retail trade 1
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
68
66
65
64
65
66
63
62
72
72
76
78
75
72
70
72
70
70
72
73
74
72
68
70
74
74
80
82
76
73
69
74
74
80
84
76
76
72
78
68
68
70
70
63
66
67
66
78
80
81
84
76
79
78
78
74
76
78
80
74
76
75
76
81
82
82
85
78
82
78
78
m
81
84
86
92
a?
71
70
70
66
68
66
66
84
84
85
78
80
80
81
82
80
82
75
79
78
80
85
85
86
79
80
80
80
91
90
90
84
84
84
86
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
a?
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ,.
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter ,
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
62
78
79
77
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by© Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r" indicates revised; "p\ preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
a
lhis is a copyrighted aeries used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Ine.
80
NOVEMBER 1969
BCD
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries
a. Actual
expenditures
(1-Q span)
(1-Q span)
(1-Q span)
480. Change in
freight carloadings©
b. Anticipations
a. Actual
carloadings
c. First
anticipations
b. Second
anticipations
D480. Freight carloadings ®
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(Thous.of cars-4-Q span)
1966
First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
83.3
83.3
55.6
75.0
62.5
71.9
37.5
65.6
56.2
71.9
71.9
75.0
73.7
73.7
57.9
52.6
73.7
89.5
84.2
78.9
+28
+18
+21
+1
55.6
30.6
33.3
61.1
50.0
41.7
44.4
50.0
53.1
52.8
58.3
44.4
42.1
31.6
10.5
42.1
78.9
52.6
78.9
73.7
-51
-88
-130
-88
66.7
38.9
55.6
55.6
63.9
55.6
69.4
83.3
63.9
47.2
80.6
55.6
31.6
68.4
68.4
57.9
73.7
63.2
73.7
68.4
-16
+29
+52
-9
83.3
66.7
(NA)
83.3
75.0
63.9
72.2
50.0
69.4
50.0
(NA)
78.9
89.5
84.2
84.2
-9
-10
-5
1967
First quarter.
Second quarter.
Third quarter. .....
Fourth Quarter
.
1968
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . .
1969
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "pn, preliminary;
"e", estimated; °an, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
ItCII NOVEMBER
1969
81
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Qj FOREIGN TRADE
Year
and
month
500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
508. Index of export orders, 512. General imports, total
nonelectrical machinery
(Mil. dol.)
(1957-59-100)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehi*
cles and parts
1967
January
February
March
+322
+366
+359
2,639
920
855
904
235
2,317
2,582
2,524
196
252
2,166
April
May
June
+410
+432
+398
2,608
2,549
2,582
793
1,005
961
215
220
218
2,118
2,184
July
August
September
+357
+421
+399
2,601
2,566
2,597
907
807
924
219
230
231
2,245
2,145
2,190
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
+161
2 415
9 671
2 677
S29
A71
2>cA
9 ofijj,
on/,
2 j^yy
99*}
peq
+128
+184
-150
2 814
909
21 q
2 775
2 439
1 00?
1,314
260
252
April
May
June
+251
-15
+78
2,855
2,740
2,870
917
244
y 60^
1,047
989
237
223
2 7'5I5
2,792
July
August
September
+133
+78
+260
2,858
2,950
3,211
914
988
923
246
240
256
2,872
2,951
October....
November
December . . .
1969
January . .
February
March
-105
+89
+70
2 6^1
2 972
2 977
1 268
9?*;
i noo
5>>J,
9^5*
9*^9
2Q
AA
,yuo
+215
2 09?
2 297
? 196
1 "391
1 11 A
2»Ap
260
222
2 OTA
? Ae;*;
9 QA1
+178
+16
+25
^ ^SS
3 292
"3 21*3
1 HO
1 222
1 211
248
•a 177
+105
+205
o 175
April
May
June
July
. ..
August
September
October
November
December
4-27 5
+184
4-7 %
WQ
+271
i 1 KfJ
+ J-Pf
0
OdC
ri QO£
q 070
J )3 (O
fi^L
~\
a,ai6
2,190
p-ay.
9
9 ^1*7
^Q9
2
2 Sftft
2 725
9 7*aA
*£j
r^o
2 ,oe^
sda
^ 2*7^
^ iftft
2^/L
28?
q nAA
^,Uoo
"21 £
J.,*-ip
1 2^0
•ppj.ft
rfl
^2^
P-LjJ>*i?
n?7A
(MA \
(NA
"i
V,im ;
\™^ /
J.QQ
^>j*4-7c?
1 rtrt
3 ,1©U
-3 Aee
Jj<«O>
o 090
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
82
NOVEMBER 1969
BUI
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter
250. Balance on goods and
services, excluding military
grants
U.S. balance of payments
520. Liquidity balance
basis
522. Official settlements
basis
{Mil. dol.)
Net capital movements plus unilateral transfers
and errors and omissions
525. 1Liquidity balance
basis
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
527. Official
settlements
basis2
(Mil, dol.)
(Mil, dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
-600
-24
-426
»307
-344
-110
+481
+239
1,558
1,398
1,100
1,223
-2,158
-1,422
-1,526
-1,530
-1,902
-1,508
-619
-495
-330
-1,031
-1,688
-1,711
-719
-71
-917
1,361
1,451
1,404
961
-1,856
-1,781
-2,435
-2,649
-3,072
-2,170
-1,475
-1,878
-564
+9
-139
t-862
-379
+1,553
-1,035
-832
-1,048
+561
-850
+712
-812
+367
471
841
909
301
r-1,668
r-3,850
p-2,533
+1,143
r+1,234
p-933
363
p283
(NA)
-2,016
p-3,994
(NA)
+780
p+960
-984
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
+97
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
(NA)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS--Con.
Year
and
quarter
530. Liquid
liabilities to
to all
foreigners 3 ®
(Mil. dol.)
534. U.S.
532. Liquid
official
and certain
npniiquid liareserve
bilities to
assets* ©
foreign official
agencies3®
(Mil, dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
Income on investment military
Goods and services
Merchandise, adjusted 5
transact!ons, other serv., total
252. Exports
253. Imports
536. Exports
537. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
540. Exports
(Mi!, dol.)
541. Imports
(MiI. dol.)
1966
28,738
28,819
29,432
29,779
16,004
16,305
15,797
16,043
15,026
34,958
04,876
14,882
10,562
10,667
10,936
11,196
9,004
9,269
9,836
9,973
7,218
7,194
7,413
7,564
6,027
6,165
6,595
6,676
3,344
3,473
3,523
3,632
2,977
3,104
3,241
3,297
28,990
29,620
31,211
33,119
16,295
17,424
17,819
19,402
13,855
14,274
14,649
14,830
11,461
11,484
11,577
11,667
10,100
10,033
10,173
10,706
7,688
7,723
7,669
7,601
6,660
6,465
6,542
7,154
3,773
3,761
3,908
4,066
3,440
3,568
3,631
3,552
32,482
32,514
33,493
33,617
18,407
16,994
17,493
18,576
13,926
14,063
14,634
15,710
11,934
12,668
13,344
12,653
11,463
11,827
12,435
12,352
7,941
8,395
8,879
8,383
7,817
8,131
8,566
8,458
3,993
4,273
4,465
4,270
3,646
3,696
3,869
3,894
34,923
p38,869
(NA)
16,914
p!5,999
(NA)
15,758
pl6,057
(NA)
11,913
p!4,184
(NA)
11,550
Pl3,901
7,469
9,588
P9,56?
7,572
'•9,59P
P9,231
4,444
P4,596
(NA)
3,978
P4,306
(NA)
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1967
First quarter..,
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter,.
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter,.
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "MA", not available;
2
3
4
•"•Series 520 minus series 250.
Series 522 minus series 250.
Reserve
JAmount outstanding at the end of quarter.
5
position at the end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of
Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).
ltd*
NOVEMBER 1969
83
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS--Con.
Income on Investment, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)
Year
and
quarter
Income on investments
542. U.S. invest- 543. Foreign
ments abroad
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
Transportation and other services
Military transactions
Travel
544. Receipts
546. Sales under 547. Military
545. Payments
expenditures
from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military contracts
abroad
elers in the U.S. abroad
(Mil.dol.)
(Mit.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
548. Receipts
from
(MiJ.dol.)
549. Payments
for
(Mil.dol.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter..,
Fourth quarter..
1,482
1,557
1,573
1,640
479
503
569
591
379
389
411
411
644
676
666
671
198
219
202
210
877
925
975
987
1,205
1,308
1,337
1,371
977
1,000
1,031
1,048
1,612
1,580
1,801
1,879
584
591
580
607
416
391
416
423
701
841
9U
739
333
335
239
332
1,085
1,075
1,106
1,102
1,412
1,455
1,452
1,432
1,070
3,061
1,031
1,094
1,771
1,973
2,040
1,917
671
742
770
749
440
424
450
456
763
732
792
735
305
353
406
364
1,102
1,116
1,143
1,169
1,477
1,523
1,569
1,533
1,110
1,106
1,164
1,241
2,120
892
pl,078
(NA)
503
P515
(NA)
810
418
P331
(NA)
1,204
pl,217
(MA)
1,403
pi,615
1,072
pi,181
(NA)
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
p2,135
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Year
and
quarter
Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)
Securities investments
561. U.S. investments
abroad
(Mil.dol.)
564. Foreign purchases 565. U.S. purchases
of foreign securities
of U.S. securities
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
575. Banking and
other capital transactions, net
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. do!.)
1966
First quarter...
Second quarter Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
52
38
-113
110
728
934
917
1,060
173
520
107
109
322
80
87
-7
-1,063
-1,054
-789
-825
118
446
325
64
70
12
112
717
533
947
956
133
329
520
34
223
266
476
301
-1,121
-955
-961
-1,174
462
46?
-329
-199
251
5
23
41
472
1,009
1,262
283
839
1,116
1,115
1,290
164
337
455
-977
-359
-788
-366
230
245
96
577
237
P119
(NA)
928
pi,101
(NA)
1,373
329
P378
323
426
P583
-891
p-1,289
(NA)
p-604
1967
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
-72
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and °NA", not available.
84
NOVEMBER 1969
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Q FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Rece pts and Expenditures
Year
and
month
601. Federal
600. Federal
surplus (+)or receipts, nadeficit (-) , na- tional income
and product
tional income
accounts
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
(Ann, rate,
bil.dol.)
bil.doLV
Defense Indicators
602. Federal
264. National
expenditures, defense purnational income chases
and product
accounts
(Ann, rate,
bii. dol,)
(Ann, rate,
bil.dol.)
616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
(Mil. dol.)
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
647. New or648. New orders, defense ders, defense
products indus- products
tries
(Mil. dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
(Mil. dol.)
1967
January
February
March
-12.0
147.5
159.5
69.9
6,518
6,595
6,343
2,296
2,140
1,903
3.01
3.32
3.07
3,364
3,930
3,034
April . . .
May
June
148.3
161.4
71.9
6,211
7,732
6,891
1,754
-13.2
2,480
2,290
3.17
4.04
3.93
3,026
4,040
3,566
July
August
September
-13 !i
152! 8
165- *3
73.'6
5,928
7,003
7,479
1,633
1,925
2,958
3.60
2.99
3.36
3,545
3,690
3,720
October
November
December
-12.3
156 !i
168^8
74.*6
7,449
6,565
6,331
2,173
1,846
3.98
3.64
4.36
3,626
3,308
3,479
-a!i
165!?
174ii
76!l
7,033
7,615
6,208
-9.*5
lyois
180 .'3
77.*9
6,765
7,441
6,929
-2.B
i8i.*4
184^2
78^8
-6!i
18?!3
187.*4
79.*3
. ..
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
..
July
August
September
October
November
December
2,735
2,360
2,865
3.51
3.86
5.07
1*60
1.31
2,887
3,445
3,124
2,299
2,077
4.43
4.01
2.96.
1.47
2.27
2.06
3,488
4,203
3,067
7,544
7,659
7,989
2,323
2,804
3,234
3.67
3.91
3.55
1.91
2.36
1.92
3,937
3,173
3,836
7,520
7,286
6,603
2,298
2,520
4.41
3.89
4.20
2.38
1.95
2.31
3,903
3,378
3,821
7,852
7,216
6,303
2,307
2,207
4.02
4.39
3.81
1.84
2.31
2.15
3,468
3,658
2,777
6,340
6,279
5,993
1,442
1,304
•1,507
4.02
3.81
.2.87
2.08
1.79
1.27
2,639
2,673
2,618
7,198
6,434
6,497
1,462
1,276
2,101
4.05
3.77
r4.12
2.38
1.46
rl.42
r2,962
r3,172
2,748
(NA)
(NO
P^.77
pi. 88
(NA)
1,985
2,161
1,959
1969
January
February
March
+9.6
April
May
June
+13* .'6
July
August
September
P<-7.3
October
November
December
. ,.
198 !i
202 .'3*
p200.9
188." 5
189*3
r!93.*'6
79.*6
78." 5
r.80.3
1,542
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
NOVEMBER 1969
85
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Qj PRICE MOVEMENTS
Year
and
month
Wholesale price indexes
Consumer price indexes
781. All items® 782. Food
(1957-59=100)
783. Commodities less foods
784. Services© 750. All commod- 58. Manufactured goods ®
ities©
751. Processed
foods and
feeds
752. Farm products
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
1967
January
February
March
114.7
114. a
115.0
114.9
114.3
114.5
107.4
107.8
108.0
125.5
125.9
126.3
106.2
106.0
105.7
106.4
106.4
106.3
111.5
111.2
102.5
100.5
99.3
April
May
Juno
115.3
115-6
116.0
114.0
114.4
115.1
108.4
108.7
108.9
126.6
127.0
127.4
105.3
105.8
106.3
106.2
106.3
106.6
111.0
111.6
112. 3
97.2
100.1
102.7
July
August
September
116.5
116.9
117.1
115.2
115.8
115.6
109.2
109.6
110.1
127.7
128.2
128.7
106.5
3.06.1
0.06.2
106. a
106.8
107.1
1U2.0
1L1.9
101.1
99.1
98.0
October
November
December
1968
January
February . , .
March
117.5
117.8
118.2
115.7
116.1
116.6
110.4
110.9
129.1
129.6
130.1
106.1
106.2
106.8
107.1
107.3
107.6
118.6
119.0
119.5
117.2
117.5
118.2
111.3
111.7
112.1
130.8
131.3
132.1
107.2
108.0
108.2
108.1
108.7
108.9
112.X
i:L3.1
1U.6
101. a
April
May
June
119.9
120.3
120.9
118.7
119.3
119.1
112.2
112.5
113.0
132.5
133.0
133.9
108.3
108.5
108.7
109.1
109.1
109.4
1U.1
114.4
113-9
101.7
102,8
102.6
July
August
September
121.5
121.9
122.2
119.2
119.5
120.0
113.3
113.7
114.0
134.9
135.5
136.0
109.1
108.7
109.1
109.7
109.5
109.9
114.6
U4.6
1M.5
102.1
101.2
102.7
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
122.9
123.4
123.7
120.8
121.0
121.6
114.4
114.8
115.0
136.6
137.4
138.1
109.1
109.6
109.8
no.o
110.3
no. 5
114.5
115.3
114.9
102.7
104.7
103.9
124.1
124.6
125.6
122.2
122.0
122.8
115.1
115.9
117.0
139.0
139.7
140.9
110.7
111.1
111.7
111.3
111.7
112.2
115.7
116.1
117.1
105.3
104.5
106.2
126.4
126.8
127.6
123.6
124.2
125.5
117.2
117.5
111.9
112.8
113.2
1.12.4
112.8
113.6
120.2
118.0
142.0
142.7
143.3
120,7
105.1
109.6
111.3
128.2
128.7
129.3
125.8
126.4
127.1
118.2
118.4
118.8
144.0
145.0
146. 0
113.3
U3.4
113.6
113.5
113.6
n3.9
120.?
12,1.1
120,5
108.5
108.7
108.3
129.8
127.1
119.4
146.5
U4.0
plOA.5
114.6
P1I4.7
121,7
109.5
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November . , .
December
no. 7
n3.2
112,2
in. 9
in. 7
in. 5
111.7
98.3
97.6
99.7
99.3
100. 8
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
86
NOVEMBER 1969
KCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
U ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
Year
and
quarter
207. Gap (potential less actual)
Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
206. Potential level x
205. Actual value
(Ann. rate, bit. dol.)
1966
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1967
(Ann. rate, bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
649.1
655.0
660.2
668.1
637.6
643.9
650.2
656.6
-11.5
-ll.l
-10.0
-11.5
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1968
666.5
670.5
678.0
683.5
663.1
669.6
676.2
682.9
-3.4
-0.9
-1.8
-0.6
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
693.3
705.8
712.8
718.5
689.6
696.4
703.3
710.2
-3.7
-9.4
-9.5
-8.3
723.1
726.7
r730.6
717.2
724.3
731.4
-2.4
-5.9
r+0.8
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; °p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Based on a trend line of 3-1/2 percent per year through middle of 1955 from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3-3/4 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to date.
ItCII NOVEMBER
1969
87
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
|3 ANALYTICAL RATIOS
Year
and
month
1967
January
February
March.. .
850. Ratio,
output to capacity, manufacturing
851, Ratio,
inventories
to sales, manufacturing
and trade
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods
853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer
goods
854. Ratio,
personal saving todisposable personal
income
855. Ratio,
nonagricultural job openings unfilled
to persons
unemployed
(Percent)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
(1957-59-100)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm
856. Real
avg. hourly
earnings,
prod, workers,
mfg.
859. Real
spendable avg.
wkly, earnings,
nonagri. prod,
or nonsupv.
workers
857. Vacancy
rate in total
rental housing®
(1957-59=100 (1957-59 dol.) (1957-59 doL)
(Percent)
?a.sa
8?!i
1.57
1.59
1.59
3.51
3.50
3.46
126.0
127.6
125.6
0.075
0.138
0.133
0.127
12B\3
2.41
2.42
2.43
77.91
77.89
April
May
June
85*.6
1.59
1.59
1.57
3.53
3.50
3.48
124.3
124.6
123.3
0.076
0.121
0.118
0.117
129*6
2.42
2.42
2.43
77.72
77.79
77. £4
July
August
September .
84*.3
1.58
1.57
1.57
3.54
3.40
3.48
123.1
121.7
122.3
0.674
0.117
0.020
O.U5
136'. 6
2.43
2.44
2.43
October
November
December
aZla
1.59
1.57
1.56
3.54
3.44
3.39
119.4
122.2
119-9
0.077
0.109
O.U8
O.U9
131^1
2.43
2.44
2.45
77.94
70.49
78.16
5.*6
p84^9
1.55
1.54
1.54
3.37
3.36
3.39
121.2
119.6
118.3
0.069
0.128
0.124
0.129
132 ".6
2.47
2.46
2.48
78.17
78.71
78.57
5.'$
April
May
June.
p84.'i
1.55
1.54
1.52
3.41
3.36
3.28
117.9
118.0
117.5
0.672
0.137
0.1AO
0.132
134 !i
2.47
2.48
2,48
78.29
73.55
78.63
5^7
July
August
September
p84.0
1.51
1.54
rl.53
3.17
3.38
3.24
117.3
116.3
U7.7
0.056
0.129
0.132
0.132
134*.4
2.48
2.49
2.49
7S.39
78.53
78.94
5.*4
p84.2
1.53
1.53
1.56
3.19
3.22
3.38
117.0
120.1
119.4
0.063
0.134
O.UO
O.H3
135^8
2.49
2.50
2.51
78.64
78.31
78.66
4.*9
p84^5
1.54
1.53
1.54
3.22
3.18
3.21
118.9
118.7
118.5
0.053
0.1A3
0.134
135.' 6
2.51
2.50
2.49
?e.os
pB4*5
1.54
1.54
1.53
3.24
3.26
3.17
120.0
121.8
122.0
0.053
0.133
0.138
0.139
rl34*5
2.48
2.48
2.48
78. 20
78,25
78.27
s.'i
rl.54
1.54
pl.54
3.20
3.15
3.07
rl!9.8
r!20.1
r!22.9
rO.067
0.134
0.120
rO.107
2.50
p84.*i
p034*3
r2.5l
r2.51
70.03
78.34
78.53
5*6
(NO
(NA)
P123.5
p2.50
P7S.OO
1968
January
February
March
October....
November
December
1969
January
February
. ..
March
April .
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
o.ui
pO.104
78. u.
7^.23
7S.36
78.52
6.6
6.3
6.1
s!6
78.31
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only,and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a" t anticipated; and "NA", not available.
88
NOVEMBER 1969
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
Dl. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing (21 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (35 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
Oil. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB(17 industries)
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
1967
69.0
7.1
r?6.2
January..
February
March
r9.5
rll.9
rll.9
40.0
54.3
32.9
34.3
34.3
38.6
47
53
48.6
54.3
64.3
65.7
61.4
65.7
53
41
40.0
72.9
42.9
74.3
91.4
70.0
53
59
71.4
71.4
68.6
41
41
r45.2
r23.8
r50.0
r!9.0
July
August
September
r73.8
59.5
76.2
61.9
r6l.9
138.1
October
November
December
r35.7
r?6.2
r73.8
r38.1
r.21.4
60.0
54.3
74.3
14.3
51.4
55.7
50.0
57.1
71.4
68.6
47
53
21.4
r64.3
r69.0
r69.0
April
May . .
June
r!4.3
r88.1
r35.7
r?6.2
59
88.1
68.6
68.6
80.0
65
r66.7
40.0
54.3
51.4
July
August
September
33.3
38.1
83.3
51.4
44.3
78.6
71.4
88.6
82.9
71
62
r50.0
r69.0
October....
November
December
47.6
16.7
52.4
rja.4
60.0
44.3
55.7
88.6
77.1
85.7
47
76
42.9
50.0
January
52.4
March
57.1
62.9
40.0
82.9
68.6
60.0
65
28.6
90.5
40.5
19.0
23.8
53
February
April
May
June
47.6
42.9
47.6
38.1
33.3
54.3
45.7
40.0
51.4
r82.9
P77.1
r59
p65
Juiy
August .
September
28.6
April
May
June
.
r35.7
r28.6
69.0
1968
January
February
March
r88.1
35.7
1969
....
October
November
December
P35.7
r54.8
60.0
41.4
r81.4
p28.6
P37.1
45.2
F47
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are
placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are
placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates
revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1969
89
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators-Con,
Year
and
month
D34. Profits,
manufacturing,
FNCB (about 1,000
corporations)
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (77 industries)©1
D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
9-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, week
including the 12th (47 areas)
1 -month span
9-month span
1-month span
9-month span
1 -month span
48
90.9
92.2
61.0
85.7
90.3
97.4
46.2
53.8
23.1
0.0
15.4
26.9
35.3
17.0
46.0
27.7
8.5
8,5
April
May
June
46
76.0
74.0
51.3
93.4
92.1
86.2
23.1
61.5
69.2
30.8
23.1
23.1
55.3
54.3
55.3
31.9
44.7
29.8
July
August
September
52
81.6
77.6
57.2
68.4
65.8
71.1
30.8
53.8
19.2
23.1
30.8
46.2
34. C
72.3
60.6
78,7
78.7
66.0
October.
November .
December
5£
32.2
7.9
71.1
52.6
46.1
50.0
46.2
46.2
61.5
38.5
30.8
30.8
38.3
74.5
46.8
80.9
70.2
78.7
55
64.5
10.5
21.1
61.8
63.2
71.1
46.2
46.2
53.8
30.8
46.2
46.2
25.5
80.9
25.5
57.4
51.1
61.7
April
May
June
45
94.7
83.6
80.3
76.3
82.7
85.3
46.2
53.8
50.0
53.8
61.5
73.1
63.8
51.1
53.2
38.3
51.1
74.5
July
August
September
56
48.7
17.8
86.7
93.3
97.3
81.3
46.2
65.4
57.7
76.9
57.7
76.9
5V. 4
40.4
63.8
36.2
66.0
76.6
October
November
December
1969
January , .
February
March
53
82.7
77.3
72.7
71.3
52.0
56.0
69.2
69.2
38.5
92.3
92.3
84.6
66,0
31.9
61.7
63.8
78.7
59.6
53
12.0
43.3
13.3
73.3
40.0
14.7
53.8
61.5
46.2
84.6
80.8
76,9
72.3
38.3
55.3
46,8
40,4
12.0
6.7
21.3
65.4
57.7
76.9
69.2
76.9
92.3
48.9
57.4
23.4
58.5
34.0
25.5
76. 9
51.1
59.6
38.3
1 -quarter span
1967
January
February
March
1968
January
February
March
April
May , .
June
52
54.0
74.7
1.3
July
August
September
49
4.0
34.7
61.3
October .
November
December
72.7
61.5
76.9
57.7
3
46.2
A6.2
S
70. a
45.7
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-mpnth indexes are
placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by®.
1
Based
2
on 77 components through June 1967; on 76 components, July 1967 through August 1968; and on 75
Average for November 3, 10, and 18.
90
us thereafter.
NOVEMBER 1969
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES: Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year
and
month
D41. Number of employees on
nonagri cultural payrolls
(30 industries)
1-month span
1967
January
February
March
6-month span
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries)©
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month span
6-month span
1-month span
9-month span
rSO.O
35.0
40.0
50.0
P41.7
r43.3
29.2
20.8
43.8
45.8
29.2
27.1
77.3
72.7
56.8
63.6
68.2
65.9
87.0
39.1
43.5
69.6
91.3
95.7
April
May
June
40.0
36.7
65.0
36.7
40.0
40.0
52.1
16.7
50.0
29.2
41.7
41.7
47.7
54.5
47-7
63.6
63.6
63.6
60.9
34.8
82.6
87.0
91.3
56.5
July
August
September
41.7
66.7
46.7
51.7
r78.3
66.7
47.9
75.0
41.7
54.2
66.7
75.0
63.6
63.6
75.0
72.7
81.8
81.8
43.5
60.9
76.1
82.6
78.3
82.6
October
November
December
65.0
93.3
73.3
68.3
83.3
85.0
56.2
87.5
83.3
75.0
77.1
83.3
72.7
77.3
90.9
81.8
90.9
95.5
37.0
67.4
47.8
95.7
95.7
73.9
1968
January
February
March
68.3
75.0
65.0
96.7
86.7
86.7
37.5
70.8
75.0
77.1
83.3
75.0
90.9
84.1
68.2
90.9
95.5
90.9
73.9
65.2
82.6
82.6
91.3
91.3
April
May
June
66.7
66.7
85.0
86.7
85.0
76.7
41.7
70.8
79.2
83.3
70.8
79.2
72.7
63.6
61.4
75.0
84.1
81.8
26.1
60.9
65.2
87.0
91.3
87.0
July
August
September
63.3
81.7
58.3
78.3
81.7
75.0
58.3
64.6
66.7
75.0
75.0
70.8
68.2
70.5
72.7
84.1
81.8
86.4
63.0
58.7
r30.4
78.3
47.8
71.7
80.0
73.3
81.7
80.0
80,0
68.8
75.0
64.6
66.7
70.8
79.2
79.5
79.5
61.4
81.8
81.8
90.9
52.2
54.3
21.7
82.6
65.2
65.2
90.0
70.0
70.0
83.3
75.0
76.7
54.2
62.5
91.7
81.2
75.0
77.1
68.2
72.7
75.0
81.8
79.5
84.1
73.9
60.9
21.7
r82.6
41.7
61.7
70.0
66.7
r65.0
r56.7
45.8
66.7
70.8
r?5.0
r72.9
r54.2
84.1
79.5
84.1
90.9
90.9
88.6
73.9
U.3
54.3
r67.4
r69.6
P47.8
July
August
September
36.7
r58.3
r38.3
P58.3
r45.8
r50.0
r35.4
P45.8
77.3
68.2
77.3
86.4
45.7
r50.0
r34.8
October
November
December
P41.7
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
P33.3
68.2
78.3
73.9
71.7
p60.9
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes
are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used
except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p". preliminary;and"NA", not
available. Unadjusted series are indicated by <g>.
BCII
NOVEMBER 1969
91
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1969
Diffusion index components
April
March
July
June
May
August
September
Octoberp
r40.8
- 40.5
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING x
(Average weekly hours)
+ 40.9
(90)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
40.8
40.7
(48)
(43)
o 40.7 o
(48)
40,7
40.6
(29)
(45)
4+
+
4
+
4
4
+
o
4
+
40.8
40.9
40.7
42.3
41.9
41.9
42.7
40.7
41.6
40.7
39.0
40.2
40.6 4 40.9
+ 40.9
40.2 - 39.7
40.2 4 40.3
40.1
4 40.9 o 40.9 - 40.7
42.0 4 42.1
41.9 - 41.7
41.8 - 41.7 o 41.7 - 41.5
41.6
41.6 4 41.8
41.8
42.2
42.6 o 42.6 - 42.5
40.6 o 40.6 - 40.3
4 40.9
U.I 4 41.6 4 42.3
- 41.5
4 40.8 o 40.8 4 40.9 o 40.9
+ 3 9 . 5 - 39.1 4 39.2 - 39.1
4
4
4
+
40.9
36.5
40.9
36.0
43.2
40.8
40.9
36.4 4 38.1
41.0
41.1
36.0 4 36.1
43.0
43.4
o 38.3 4 38.4
41.6 4 41.8
42.9 4 43.0
o 41.4 o 41.4
+ 37.7 - 37.6
+ 38.3
o 41.7
+ 43.2
4 41.4
+ 37.6
o
4o
4
40.7
4 39.5
4 41.2
+ 36.2
42.9
o 38.4
o 41.8
42.2
41.3
3?.4
4-
(29)
(55)
4 r40.4 © r40.4
4 P39.8 + r40.0
4 r40.3 - r40.1
4 r42.1 - r42.0
4 r42.0 + r42.2
o r41.6 - p/il.4
4 r42.6 4 r42.7
4 40.4 4 r40.6
41.2 f r41.7
o r40.9 4 P41.1
- r39.0 o 39.0
40.6 4 40.9 4
38.2 - 37.2 4
o 41.2 - r40.9
36.0 - r35.9 o
42.8 o
4 43.0
4
40.5
- 39.5
39.9
41.7
© 42.2
G 41.4
- 42.5
- 40.3
- 41.6
40.8
38. 8
P41.1 4
41.3
4 37.9
40.5
- 35.6
42.6
P37.4
40.7
35.9
r42.3
30.3
p41.6
r&2.4
40.9
P37.1
- 38.2
o 41.6
o 42.4
40.6
4 37.3
- 39,482 + r32,135
(41)
(01)
- 31,747
(37)
o
4 38.5
4 41.9
4 42.9
41.2
- 37.0
-
38.4
r41.9
r42.8 o
40.9
36.8
4
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
Primary metals
Blast furnaces steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals,
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans barrels and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated meto! products
-
29,697 4 30,944
(40)
(54)
4,614
4 2,110 +
4,806
2,307
- 29,998 - 29,171 4 31,069
(60)
(46)
(40)
-
4,772
2,246 4
4
+
_
44
+
4
2,980
4
5,161
4,825
2,308 4 2,510 +
4
...
3,158
3,157
3,119
4
4
4
5,001
r5,313
2,370 +
2,592
44
...
4
3,091
3,197
-
., . 4
5,6S7
5,579
5,650
585 ;}
A15
+
4
+
(NO
6,132
501 t} 869
664
314
4
704
...
4
501
4
56!
-
274
4
4
4
(wO
3,340
;} (NO
4
716
303 +
735
361
4
439 4
+
5,5W
t) 500 t) 540 ;}
4
685
429
5,433
+
4
4
4
5,538
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*
t)
*77 t>
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment*
...4
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
676 4
Metalworking machinery*
+
350 4
Miscel laneous equipment*
+
Machine shops.
4Special industry machinery*
4
...
General industrial machinery*
504
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
/. . .4
5,351
(NO
4
0
469 +
+
736 338 -
(NO
(HO
4
4
...
4
584
544
4
(NO
+
4
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (4) = rising, (o) - unchanged, ant; (-) •-- falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA - not available, p = preliminary, r ~ revised. *Deiotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24,
•"•Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
92
NOVEMBER 1969
HOI
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
April
March
June
May
July
August
September
October
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1-Continued
(Millions of dollars)
3,746
Electricdl machinery
Electrical transmission distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipmentf
Electronic components.
Other electrical machinery*
;}
+
723
+}
;}
+
961
92
+
-
1,003 +
1,165
4-
!!.
7,107
+
3,664
6
837 t}
4-
Motor vehicles and parts, total
3,710
3,928
4
7i1
...
+
6,341
7,228
7,695
4-
+
3,707
752
6
l)
*7
1,242 +
+
1,082
+
7,554
7,657
4....
4+
....
+
...
842 +
+
+
(M)
P7,656
r7,885
+
+
+
+
4-
4-
4-
4
4+
+
4-
+
+
4
4-
4-
;} (»)
+
4-
Furniture total
Stone clay and glass total
w
+
.* . +
44-
(N/0
+
+
4-
+°)
3,688
+
4-
+
+
+
t)
+
+
800 +
4,079
+
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS2
(1941-43 - 10)
-
Index of 500 stock prices
99.30 + 101.26 + 104.62 (13)
Coal, bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Texti le products
Paper
Publishing
Chemicals
Drugs
Oi 1 composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Automobi les
Radio 3n<1 tplpui^inn hrnjifirs^tpr^
-
(1)
(75)
94.71 -
94.18
(4)
(35)
+
+
+
+
„
Office and business equipment
(54)
99.14
;;;
4
4
Teleohone companies
+
+
+
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4+
+
4
4
+
4+
-
4-
+
4
4
+
+
+
4
+
+
95.52
(73)
44+
+
. .
4-
...
+
(61)
4-
. .
' '*
\\\
+
O
4-
+
+
+
...
+
4-
+
+
4+
+
4
94.51
4-
4
+
4-
+
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
...
+
4+
+
...
4+
4
+
Retail stores composite
Life insurance
4
-
+
+
...
-
...
4-
+
+
+
4-
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers areheld confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24. t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 647.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here ijiclude 18 of the more Important industries and 5 composites
representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table £3.
2
BCII NOVEMBER
1969
93
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
April
March
September
August
July
June
May
November1
October
023. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price
index (1957-59^100)
• + 106.9 +
109.3 + 110.4
+
111.6
+
U2.4 +
H5.0 +
117.4 -
X15.6 4
115.8
(Dollars)
(46)
Percent rising of J3 components
Copper scrap (Ib.) . . ,
Lead scrap (Ib,).
Steel scrap (ton)
Tinflb.)
Zincflb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 12-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib,).
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib,)
+
.480 +
o .066 +
- 25.407 +
- 1.584 o .144 +
- .154
.255
+ .213 +
- 1.575
- .163 +
+ 11.891 o
+ .260 +
+
.056 +
(65)
.534
.070
25.536
1.567
.146
.143
.254
.217
1.572
.193
11.893
.265
.059
(58)
+ .545
+ .073
+ 30.644
- 1.565
+ .150
- .136
+
+
+
+
+
+
- .250
+ .224
+ 1.584
.190
+ 11.964
- .255
0
.059
o
+
o
+
+
(62)
(77)
.561 +
.074 +
31.283 1.594 +
.151 o
.140 +
,577 +
«0?8 +
29,774 +
1.617 +
.151 o
.145
(77)
.604
.079
31.408
1.663
-151
.143
.250
.221 o
1.597
.179
n.964 +
.260 +
.064 +
.249 +
.221 o
1.572 +
.172
12.410 +
.278 +
.068 +
.257
.221
1.578
.168
12.550
.304
.076
(58)
+
+
+
.601
.076
34.073
1.654
.16©
.152
(46)
.602
.073
- 33,298
+ 1.665
o
.160
+
4-
.162
(46)
.535
o
.073
- 30.090
+ 1.706
o
.160
+
.170
o
.261
.257 4.255
.218
.220
.220 o
+ 1.583 - 1.546 4L572
+
.202
.192 +
.195
+ 12.823 + 12.978 - 12.939
.266
.285
.245
.076
.073 4+
.079
D5, INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS 3
(Thousands)
Avg. weekly initial claims ...
+
(55)
Percent rising of 47 components
Northeast region;
Boston (7)
Buffalo (20)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson(21)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (22)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26).
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (19).
Milwaukee (18)
Minneapolis (13)
St, Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (16)
184 +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
201 f
180
176
(49)
(23)
(57)
+
f
+
!. !
+
•t+
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
(5D
+
+
+•
+
+
-
+
+
+
4+•
+
+•*-
•h
+
+
f
+
4+
f
+
+
f
f
+
f
•f
+
+-
. ».
4-
+
+•
. t . 4-
+
f
...
+
+
f
+
+
f
f
f
^
44.
-H
.««
4+
+
+
...
...
4f
4-
+
(46)
4+
f
4-
+
202
(38)
+
+
+
+
201
196
(60)
f
+
+
,
197 +
4+
+
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) - unchanged, and (•) ; falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency, NA = not available, p = preliminary, r - revised,
1
Average for November 3, 10, and 18.
^Series componenta are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
The industrial materials price fLndcx :U> not seasonally adjusted.
3
The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when bug^nese rises:
(-) - rising, (o) " unchanged, and (+) = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of tho Census before
the direction of change is determined.
Data used are for the week including th© 12th of the month.
Directions ©f change are
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its siac rank.
94
NOVEMBtR 1969
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
March
April
May
June
Augustr
September
+ 70,500
o r?0,486
July
October p
041. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 1
(Thousands of employees)
+ 69,710
All nonagricultural payrolls
(70)
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products .
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai I trade
Finance, insurance, real estate . „
Servke and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
+
o
+
o
+
+
,
197
523
410
535
1,063
1,121
1,363
1,364
1,432
292
349
1,203
69
880
1,246
555
673
620
116
449
301
626
+ 3,374
+ 4,399
+ 3,726
+ 10,782
+ 3,515
+ 11,034
- 2,759
+ 9,373
+ 70,013
(62)
+ 70,300
192
193
530
525 +
412
+
413
526
529
- 1,057 + 1,062
- 1,118 + 1,121
+ 1,370 - 1,366
+ 1,369 + 1,381
- 1,420 - 1,399
o
292 +
294
348
347
- 1,205 + 1,206
68 +
69
871
875
+ 1,252 + 1,255
554
549 +
672 669
o
617
617
118
+
118 o
o
449 +
451
300
300 o
188
528
411
+
532
+ 1,076
+ 1,122
+ 1,377
- 1,379
+ 1,434
292
+
348
- 1,201
0
69
+
873
o 1,255
+
556
+
674
+
623
+
119
+
455
299
o
622
+ 3,466
+ 4,467
+ 3,774
+ 10,891
+ 3,557
o 11,066
+ 2,790
+ 9,469
+ 69,789
(42)
624
- 3,363
+ 4,439
+ 3,737
+ 10,796
+ 3,531
+ 11,044
o 2,758
+ 9,386
622
+ 3,407
+ 4,444
+ 3,758
+ 10,851
+ 3,541
+ 11.065
- 2,754
+ 9,453
- 70,247
(70)
+
o
+
+
187
520
408
526
1,077
1,122
1,369
1,388
1,430
291
350
- 1,197
68
o
873
- 1,248
555
+
675
620
o
119
o
455
294
+
629
- 3,434
+ 4,483
o 3,773
+ 10,898
+ 3,568
o 11,067
- 2,777
- 9,454
(38)
(58)
(37)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ 70,673
(42)
181 170
r!74
518 - r515
513
r408
410
407
529
527 +
r529 o
1,087 + rl,107 + 1,111
1,128 - rl,124 - 1,121
1,366 + rl,303 + 1,390
1,387 - rl,382 + 1,389
1,582 - rl,450 - 1,436
288
292
r289
r342
341
345 1,204 - rl,202 - 1,201
70
r6?
65
r862
863
859
1,242 - r'1,240 - 1,239
556 +
559
557
681
676 +
r679 +
612
619
613
rl!8 +
118 o
119
r452
454 451
296
285
r287
+
631 o r631
- 3,410 + r3,414
o 4,484 o r4,482
+ 3,776 + :r3,788
+ 10,926 + no, 943
+ 3,581 + r3,590
+ 11,120 + rll,153
- 2,752 " r2,'749
+ 9,486 + r9,535
+
633
- 3,406
- 4,476
+ 3,805
+ 11,006
+ 3,601
+ 11,251
- 2,741
+ 9,564
047. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1957-59-100)
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical .
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
+ 171.4
(92)
+ 171.7
(46)
+ 172.5
(67)
+ 173.7
(71)
+ 174.6
(46)
- 174.3
(50)
- r!73.9
(35)
- 173.3
(33)
+ 146'.2
+ 178.5
+ 147*9
- 178.3
+ Utf! 3
+ 179.2
+ 153!i
+ 180.6
- 1-152! 4 - 151 l5
- ri.79.1+ 180.7
- r!49.6
- r!78.0
+
+
150
179
+ 196! 2
+ 200.7
+ 174.1
+ 192.8
+ 196! 8
- 199.5
- 172.4
+ 195-4
+ 193*1
+ 201.8
- 171.8
- 195.3
+ 195*3
- 199.6
+ 176.6
+ 195.7
+ 196.0 - 195*5
+ 200.8 + 203.8
+ r181.1 - 179.1
- 194.7 + 194.9
+
+
+
- 153^4
+ 130.8
+ 155*1
- 122.6
+ 156 .'9
- 120.7
-
-
+ 187.0
+ 165.7
+ 188.9
+ 167.6
+ 190.2
- 167.5
- 189.9
+ 168.1
155*2
H5.5
152!?
H3.4
+ 155*3
- 108.9
+ rl5?'3
+ P112.2
199
198
178
194
140
156
(MO
- 185.0
- 167.4
+ 186.5
- 165.8
- r!85.1
-- rl65.0
184
164
rl98*7
203.5
r!79.0
r!95.4
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions
of change for the most recent spans are computed "before figures for the current month are rounded.
2
ItCII
NOVEMBER 1969
95
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
March
Jun$
May
April
July
August
September
October
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTIOI^-CQntinued
(1957-59-100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel 3nd leather
Textile mill products. ..*
Apparel products
Leather and products
+ 152.9 + 154.2 + 156.5 + 157.8 - 157 .'o - r!54.0
+ 150.2 - 147.8 + 150.0 - 149.2 + r!50.7 - P148.7
+ 105.6- 103.4 + 107.6 - 104.7 - r98.4 + plOO.O
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
p342
(N/0
- r!42.5
™ pl53.2
(M)
(MA)
(NA)
+ 175^0 + 175^ - 174^9 + 175^3 + 176.4+ rl7?;$
+ 153.0 - 152.7 + 155.9 + 156,5 + 158.3 - r!58.2
-- 157.4
pwis
pl63
(N/U
pl56
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
+ 235^2
+ 142.7
+ 236.2
+
-
Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
+- 118.7
141 is
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
(KA)
239^1 +
1A2.2 +
234.2 +
239^5
U3.5
237.0
+
+
+
239^7
145*4
237*3
+ r243^i
- 143.5
+ r238.3
- r239.i
+ r!44.5
+ p240.0
- ^222 . 1 +
- P238!5
+ P147-5
(N/0
p223
(N/0
(MO
(N/0
- 140.5
- 110.5
+
13s!6
115-4
- weli
121.9
+ rl39.9
- 120.3
+ rH3ii
- pl!4.8
o rlAl.o
o 1)143.1
(N/0
p!40
(MO
(N/0
+ 1U. 3
+ 123.5
•h 120.2
+ 126.9
+ 123.9
+ 129.6
+ 124.8
+ 134.8
+ r!30.0
- 132.1
- r!22.1
- r!30.2
*• 131. a
+
+
- 146.6
- 141.4
- 13415
- 141.2
+ 137.4
+ 142.6
+ i3s!i + ruali - puil
149*1
150. 5
+
- 142.2
-
Ilk. 7 f
+ r!42.8
+ pl44.o
+ 113.6
-
pll6
p!32
P136
(N/0
(NA)
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 2
(1957-59-100)
All manufacturing industries
+ 112.2
+ 112.4
(75)
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products . . . . »
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
(84)
+ 112.8
(80)
+ 113.2
(84)
+ H3.5
(77)
(68)
U3.9
+
.114.6
(68)
(77)
- :_23 . 2
122.6
+ 106.4 + 106.5
103.8
+ 013.5 +
+ 111.2 + 113.7
149.5
105.7
111.9
108.8
- 143.3
+ 105.8
+ 112.3
+ 108.9
- 138.0
+ 105.9
+ 112.6
+ 109.9
- 129-$
o 105.9
+ 112. a
+ 110.3
- 125.3 - 124.0
+ 106.1 + 106.2
+ 129.9
+ 109.6
o 120.4
+ U9.8
4- 132.4
+ 110,2
o 120,4
+ 120.0
+ 134.2
+ 110.8
+ 320.5
+ 120.3
+ 135.5
+ 111.0
+ 120.7
+ 121.2
+ 136.1 + 139.5
+ 112. 0 + 112. 6
+ 121.3 + 123.2
+ 121.5 + 121.8
+ 143.5
•+ 112.8
+ 124.2
+ 122.6
+
144.8
•*'
113.4
+ 124.4
+
123.4
+ 116.5 + 116.6 + 117.6
+ 104.2 + 104.3 + 104.5
- 106.3 + 106.4 + 106.5
o 112.5 + 112.7 + 112.8
+ 117.8
+ 104.7
+ 106.6
+ 115.1
+ 113.1
+ 104.8
o 106.6
+ H5.5
+ 118.5
- 104.7
- 106.0
+ 115.9
+ 119.2
+ 105,4
+ 106.1
+ 116.4
+ 120.0
+ 105.6
+
108.7
+ 116.7
+ 116.4
- 104.6
- 104.2
- 92.1
+ 112.8
+ H7.3
- 104.5
+ 104.3
+ 92.4
+ 113.0
+ 121.4
- 104.5
+ 105.0
+ 92.7
+ 103.3
+ 122.0
+ 105.3
o 105.0
- 92.6
+ H3.9
- 121.5
- 121.3
+ 105.7 + 105.9
- 104.8 + 105.0
+ 92.7
- 92.1
+ 115.8 + 03.6.2
+ 121.6
105.8
- 104.5
91.6
+ 107.4
+ 98.0
+ 101.7
+ 100.9
o 123.4
+
+
+
+
+ 108.4
- 98.2
- 103.2
+ 102.5
+ 126.4
+ 108.7 + 108.8
+ 98.7
">•
98.9
- 102.5
- 101.8
+ 103.0 - 102.7
o 126.4
+ 128.2
+
+
+
+
+
+ 119.4
+ 104.6
o 104.3
+ 92.6
- 112.9
108,0 + 108.1
+
98.1
97.9
102.5
- 102.4
101.2
- 101.1
126.0
•*- 126.1
+ 108.3
+ 98.3
+ 103.3
+ 101.2
- 125.7
+ H3.o
+ 111.1
o 113.0
+ 012.7
+
n6.s
109.0
98.6
101.6
+ 103.5
- 127.4
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) ^ unchanged, and (-) ^ falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r == revised.
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
are not seasonally adjusted.
96
NOVEMBER 1969
IICII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1969
Diffusion index components
April
March
May
July
June
August r
October P
September
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES 1
(Mil I ions of dollars)
All retail sales
-
Percent rising of 23 components
(22)
Grocery stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . .
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Shoe stores
+
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
28,916 +
+
+
29,442 (74)
29,386 -
+
+
29,090 +
(46)
(54)
(41)
29,346 - r29,249 +
(50)
5,868 2,191 2,991 +
294
5,863 +
2,110 +
3,143 287
6,006
2,150
3,117
285
29,371
(61)
(35)
5,883 2,107 +
2,895 +
296
5,839 +
2,133 +
3,080 294
517 +
393 +
615 +
245 +
558
414
649
266 o
546 +
399
633 +
266 +
552
375
640
296
+
o
+
+
560
375 +
658
306 +
554
400
653
332
P530 +
P387 +
p637 P325
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
922
400 +
992
269 +
903
436 +
974
28?
902
455 +
943 +
281 +
895
478
951
283 +
852
445
899 +
291
841
424
905 +
280
p839 p410 +
P927 p274 +
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
5,013 + P5,279 P387 399
2,075 + p2,083 +
1,013 + pi, 022 +
640
P618 +
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
5,099
419
2,132
960
601
+
+
+
+
5,145 427
2,106 +
963 +
619
5,906
2,186
3,011
285
29,371 -
5,102
414
2,119
996
615
+
o
+
5,220
414
2,086
975
627
-
+
+
5,011 o
408
2,080 994 +
642
- P5,873
+ p2,l66
- P3,027
- ' p278
+
+
+
+
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA - not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
2
ItCII
NOVEMBER
1969
97
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q| CONSUMER PRICES
Year
and
month
133. Canada,
781. United
index of consumer
States, index of
consumer prices® prices©
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
1967
January
February . .
March
115
115
115
117
117
118
April
May
June
115
116
116
July
August
September
October
November
December .
1968
January
February
March
132. United King- 135. West Germany, 136. France,
index of consumer index of consumer
dom, index of
prices®
consumer prices© prices©
138. Japan, index
of consumer
prices©
137. Italy, index
of consumer
prices®
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
123
123
123
141
141
342
153
154
154
137
138
138
119
119
120
129
129
129
130
130
130
124
124
124
142
142
142
154
153
152
138
138
139
116
117
117
121
121
121
130
130
129
124 '
123
123
142
U3
143
152
153
156
139
139
140
118
118
118
121
121
122
129
131
131
123
123
123
344
145
145
159
159
160
140
140
140
119
119
120
123
123
123
132
133
133
125
125
125
147
347
147
161
161
162
140
140
140
April
May
June
iao
120
121
124
124
124
136
136
136
125
125
126
147
148
148
162
163
161
141
041
141
July
August
September
122
122
122
125
125
126
136
137
137
126
125
125
149
149
150
162
162
168
340
140
141
October , .
November .
December
1969
January.,..
February
March
123
123
124
126
127
127
137
138
140
126
3J26
127
152
152
153
166
167
166
041
141
141
124
125
126
127
1*7
128
140
141
142
128
128
129
155
155
156
167
167
169
142
142
343
April
May
June
July
August
September .
126
L27
128
129
130
131
143
143
r!44
129
129
129
156
157
158
171
171
171
143
043
144
128
129
129
131
132
131
r042
143
144
130
r!29
r!29
158
159
160
r!75
H5
145
October
November
December
130
132
(M)
130
(NA)
(m)
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.
Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; V, preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
98
NOVEMBER
1969
ItCII
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
47. United
States, index of
industrial production
Year
and
month
(1957-59=100)
123. Canada,
index of industrial production
(1957-59-100)
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
(1957-59=100)
126. France,
index of industrial production
(1957-59-100)
125. West Germany, index of
industrial production
(1957-59-100)
128. Japan, index of industrial
production
121. OECD,1
European countries, index of
industrial production
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
127. Italy, index
of industrial production
Revised
1967
January. .
February
March
158
157
157
166
166
166
129
129
130
156
154
156
151
150
150
298
295
304
155
154
rl55
206
208
207
April
May
June
157
156
156
168
167
168
131
130
130
153
152
156
'150
150
148
305
312
317
155
154
155
210
211
211
July
August.
September
156
158
157
169
170
170
130
130
131
157
157
159
154
152
155
321
327
336
157
156
158
211
208
212
October
November
December
157
160
162
169
173
174
133
134
136
159
161
164
157
157
170
338'
346
349
159
160
165
216
216
215
1968
January
February .
March
161
162
163
172
172
173
135
136
138
164
165
169
159
161
166
348
354
351
162
163
1.66
218
220
221
April
May
June
162
164
166
175
176
179
136
138
138
167
116
136
165
167
180
362
372
373
165
157
165
222
222
223
July
August.
September
166
165
165
178
178
180
138
140
Ul
171
171
171
167
178
177
382
382
389
168
171
173
223
217
234
166
168
169
182
184
185
141
142
143
179
182
184
176
185
187
397
407
401
175
178
180
235
226
233
169
170
171
185
187
191
141
Ul
143
183
180
180
186
189
190
403
410
405
180
180
238
233
240
April
May
June
172
172
174
187
186
186
U3
143
144
185
185
183
189
195
197
428
429
435
183
184
r!86
•242
juiv
August
September
175
174
174
186
p!83
(MA)
144
plM
(A)
184
p!84
(MO
190
r!97
p!92
446
443
243
233
P459
186
p!86
(MO
October
November
December
p!73
(NO
(NO
. ..
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
. ...
182
236
243
p226
(MA)
. .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
NOVEMBER
1969
99
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
\
jj STOCK PRICES
Year
and
month
143. Canada, index
19. United States,
of stock prices ®
index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks ©
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
142. United Kingdom, index of
stock prices ®
146. France, index
of stock prices ©
145. West Germany, 148. Japan, index
of stock prices; ©
index of stock
prices®
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
99
103
98
148
156
159
223
229
(1957-59-100)
147. Italy, index
of stock prices ®
(1957-59-100)
1967
January
February
March
177
181
182
157
156
159
April
May
June
134
188
185
185
186
186
167
171
172
96
99
93
158
155
154
22^1
233.
231
129
132
130
July
August
September
189
192
194
189
194
198
176
177
187
94
99
110
156
175
182
231
215
209
129
133
139
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
194
188
193
192
188
109
196
203
200
109
106
103
182
192
194
213
206
198
143
139
135
193
184
181
189
177
171
202
208
213
10?
104
113
205
209
207
203
208
209
134
130
133
194
183
216
-LOp
236
oj, A
117
1QA
April
May
June
1?1
204
July
August
September
175
180
~\&c
April
May
June
,
July
August
September
October
November
December
220
136
99Q
226
5>Qe
i^
-LJ?
1 33
2*i9
26*
TO3
?^0
o;,q
T QQ
•J-77
T QO
iy<;
O7O
£(<,
T rje
-LU>
OOT
<?Ju
oei
fe>H
2O*;
1 Qft
97Q
PP/,
o^A
2^O
270
970
10/j.
228
27?
Tf)C
pp;.
9&/.
131
1 97
TOO
yiQ
266
137,
^J'4-
1 ^^
iJP
133
203
9fU
216
210
207
pi L
2Q1
m
228
97Q
206
201
213
208
282
270
121
130
2^0
231
282
279
205
212
201
213
224
209
266
253
235
128
136
124
233
243
247
293
302
304
1 Q9
1Q1
TQQ
1QQ
204
927
P?A
22Q
TOT
0-3 £>
i yy
yj,7
Til 97
vOcp
192
194
Wl QA
pj-yif
136
»kpo
1
3&
•kpo
T^A
•A>J«
Tfje
yi L
210
141
12?
91 Q
1£7
pm
October
November
December
1969
January
February
March
107
22tt
142
*•( J5
070
206
29C
r>9~\L
_.ooc
P^O
y»n1 *^A
_T O C
pljjp
s>A?
--070
P*^
^nri
136
1*>2
153
150
M &
JUU
OQQ
^?J
"\cn
L*)&
JXU
rS\Kt
p.L>4
01 n
vnVaQT
rpjjsj,
i-iQ J A
p^40
«1
A;
pjlo4
«T £/
ploo
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only,and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
100
NOVEMBER 1969
APPENDIXES
B. Current Adjustment Factors
1969
Series
Jan.
4. Nonagricultural placements, all
industries1
5. Average weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance. . . .
13 New business incorporations
1
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of
sales mfg 2
33. Net change in mortgage debt held
by financial institutions and life
insurance companies 1 3
37. Purchased materials, percent of
companies reporting higher
inventories
....
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over,
total installment loans^
49. Nonagricultural job openings
unfilled
. .....
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
. .
5
112 Change in business loans
508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery
616. Defense Department obligations,
tota 1
621. Defense Department obligations,
625. Military contract awards in U.S —
D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB) 6 . . .
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
ftn
e
81 3
92 2
100 4
102 3
111 3
105 2
110 2
118 i
114 2
94 6
151.3
114.5
92.5
93.3
78.4
79.3
122.0
84.9
70.7
80.0
97.8
135.0
118 2
93 7
108 1
105 3
102 0
101 8
101 0
91 3
92 9
101 5
84 0
100 1
87 4
97.8
-272
102.3
-448
101.0
96.2
103.9
-111
107.0
109.8
+ 59
106.5
+93
103.4
+ 215
103.1
+107
101.3
84.7
94.5
99.3
98.7
100.5
100.0
99.3
101.8
101.2
100.2
99.0
100.1
100.1
99.9
100.6
100.8
99.1
99.7
99.6
83.4
106.0
101.7
111.3
109.0
120.1
103.0
+157
+18
+126
-169
+238
102.2
95.6
88.1
91.7
97.7
99.0
91.9
93.6
102 0
98.0
98.3
111.1
115.6
106.5
106,2
94.1
79.8
99.0
100.1
99.2
99.5
101.1
100.0
99.4
99.7
99.6
100.3
92.3
93.2
94.3
99.0
100.7
103.0
91.2
80.6
95.6
97.9
94.4
151.1
94.5
102.3
112.3
100.1
85.6
94.7
77.2
71.0
96.0
99.0
96.9
204.9
58.2
102.6
122.3
100.5
76.3
95.9
81.0
rtrt
rj
00. /
86.4
+16
96.6
185.7
101.7
-9
87.9
115.0
98.7
+8
79.4
92.2
87.1
-15
NOTE": These series are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. IS.Tne X-ll Variant of the Census Method
[I Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to
rounding.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
Method II seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series. Factors are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.).
5
Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes are computed.
6
l-quarter diffusion index:
Figures are placed in the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed bythe additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
101
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ® (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have notbeen seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
01.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
DIFFUSION INDEX FOR AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS,
MANUFACTURING — 21 INDUSTRIES { 1-MONTH SPAN)
...
33.3
47.6
64.3
42.9
45.2
26.2
14,3
90.5
64.3
71.4
69.0
...
1948..
1949. ,
1950..
28.6
40.5
81.0
26.2
64.3
64.3
71.4
26.2
71.4
52.4
9.5
81.0
42.9
69.0
66.7
45.2
47.6
85.7
38.1
64.3
81.0
73.8
42.9
64.3
9.5
31.0
28.6
50.0
59.5
59.5
38.1
19.0
57.1
14.3
59.5
38.1
1951..
1952.,
1953..
54.8
73.8
28.6
54.8
42.9
42.9
71.4
26.2
83.3
78.6
14.3
42.9
19.0
83.3
31.0
38.1
57.1
16.7
38.1
16.7
33.1
21.4
85.7
31.0
71.4
95.2
9.5
16.7
61.9
81.0
69.0
31.0
23.8
1954..
1955. .
1956. ,
21.4
90.5
40.5
69.0
81.0
26.2
31.0
83.3
23.8
28.6
45.2
71.4
69.0
90.5
4.8
78,6
40.5
28.6
64.3
21.4
81.0
52.4
66.7
21.4
19.0
73.8
73.8
76.2
69.0
64.3
1957..
1958. .
1959..
38.1
35.7
92.9
73.8
9,5
61.9
21.4
69.0
69.0
42.9
42.9
71.4
9.5
64.3
69.0
40.5
95,2
33.3
42.9
78.6
45.2
40.5
78.6
33.3
57.1
73.8
23.8
I960..
1961..
1962..
45.2
95.2
28.6
14.3
57.1
61.9
35.7
57.1
81.0
35.7
76.2
81.0
7B.6
42.9
19.0
23.8
95.2
42.9
38.1
64.3
33.3
28.6
61.9
42.9
1963..
1964. ,
1965. .
76.2
0.0
61.9
45.2
85.7
64.3
52.4
45. 2
76.2
23.3
78.6
16.7
85.7
33.3
81.0
71.4
45,2
35.7
59.5
57,1
54.8
1966..
1967..
61.9
69.0
78.6
7.1
40.5
76,2
47.6
45.2
54.3
23.8
38.1
50.0
23.8
73.8
IVQ
Annual
...
50.8
43.7
68.2
42.1
43.7
72.2
46. S
42.0
77.8
40.5
62.7
§0.0
34.1
46,0
51,6
40.9
48.6
64.9
73.8
59.5
35.7
60.3
47.6
51.6
45.2
51.6
30.2
*3.6
6S.9
,26.2
53.2
50.8
46.8
50.6
54.0
38.7
92.9
66.7
16.7
40.5
33.3
66.7
40.5
84.9
30.2
58.7
58.7
34.9
45.2
!>4.0
I»8.7
69.9
56.3
49.2
53.6
63.5
43.3
4.3
40.5
52.4
35.7
90.5
50.0
35.7
52.4
69.0
44.4
38.1
74.6
31.0
67.5
57.9
46.8
77.0
3,4.1
25.4
61.1
57.1
36.9
60.9
55.9
23.8
40.5
85.7
83.3
85.7
4.8
19.0
69.0
64.3
7.1
14.3
26.2
31.7
69.8
57.2
46.0
71.4
47.6
30.2
55.6
54,0
36.5
56.3
31.8
36.1
63.3
47.6
38.1
64.3
40.5
73.8
14.3
26.2
52.4
69.0
73.8
26.2
64.3
73.8
73.8
95.2
78.6
57.9
43.6
67.5
60.3
52.4
44.5
57.1
45*2
40 . 5
50.8
76.2
75.4
56.5
54.4
57.0
61.9
59.5
42.9
61.9
50.0
35.7
40.5
76.2
26.2
38,1
60.3
50.8
46.8
39.7
4,2.9
6 ( 5.1
36.9
50.0
47.2
51.4
DIFFUSION INDEX FOR AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS,
MANUFACTURING — 21 INDUSTRIES (9-MONTH SPAN)
1949. »
1946. *
1947. *
N Q
AVERAGE
1947. .
01.
HQ
AVERAGE
26.2
50.0
59.5
33.3
23.8
4T.6
66.7
47.6
46.0
1948..
1949. .
1950. .
76.2
4.8
90.5
61.9
14.3
95.2
42.9
14.3
97.6
45.2
19.0
100.0
4.8
50.0
95.2
21.4
47.6
90.5
16,7
42.9
95.2
0.0
50.0
95.2
14.3
90.5
78.6
4.8
78.6
81.0
2.4
85.7
73.8
0.0
92.9
73.8
60.3
11,1
94.4
23.8
38.9
95.2
10.3
61.1
89.7
2.4
85.7
76.2
24.2
49.2
88.9
1951..
1952..
195?..
45.2
40.5
31.0
42.9
47.6
14,3
31.0
42.9
9.5
21.4
52.4
7.1
23.8
71.4
4.8
19.0
71.4
9.5
35.7
66.7
9.5
26.2
73.8
0.0
26.2
90.5
0.0
42.9
64.3
0.0
38.1
85.7
4.8
23.8
83.3
0.0
39.7
43.7
34.9
21.4
65.1
7.1
29.4
77.0
3.2
34.9
77.8
1.6
31, <*
65.9
11.7
1954,.
1955..
1956. .
2.4
100.0
31.0
50.0
100.0
14.3
33.3
95.7
4.8
42,9
81.0
9.S
38.1
85,7
16.7
59.5
90.5
21.4
73.3
92.9
19,0
78,6
31.0
35.7
92,9
85.7
21.4
92.9
38.1
54.8
95.2
33.3
57.1
90.5
61.9
28.6
23.6
95.2
16.7
46. 3
85.7
15.9
81,8
86. S
25.4
92.9
44,4
46.8
62.5
78.0
26,2
19S7..
1958..
1959. .
21.4
14.3
92.9
11.9
19.0
93.2
16.7
45.2
90. 5
21.4
69.0
88.1
14.3
83.3
71.4
4.8
90.5
40.5
0.0
100.0
38.1
2.4
95.2
42.9
4.8
92.9
33.3
7.1
100.0
11.9,
11.9
95.2
16.7
11.9
95.2
19.0
16.7
26.2
92.9
13.5
30.9
66.7
2<»4
96 «,0
38,1
10.3
96.8
15,9
10.7
75.0
53.4
i960, ,
1961..
1962..
26.2
42.9
83.3
31.0
83.3
81.0
28.6
73.8
§9.5
21.4
95.2
28.6
14.3
90.5
69.0
11.9
97.6
52.4
14.3
95,2
52.4
7.1
90.5
26.2
35.7
64.3
26.2
11.9
92. 9;
23.8
19. 0
83.3
35.7
28.6
95.2
23.8
28.6
66.7
74.6
15.9
94.4
50.0
19.0
83.3
34.9
19.3
90.5
27.8
20.8
83.7
46. B
1963..
1964..
1965. .
61.9
69.0
83.3
42.9
61.9
81.0
92.9
64.3
81.0
66.7
85.7
73.8
83.3
47.6
31.0
73.8
38.1
50.0
71.4
71.4
64.3
61.9
97.6
69.0
50.0
83.3
88*1
61.9
85,7
97.6
52.4
92.9
92.9
78,6
59.5
83.3
65,9
65.1
81.6
74.6
73.8
51.6
61.1
84.1
73.8
64.3
79.4
91.3
66.5
75.6
74.6
1966. .
1967..
90.5
9.5
33.1
11.9
59.5
11.9
45.2
19.0
35.7
35,7
33.3
28.6
16.7
76,2
14.3
61.9
21.4
38.1
7.1
73,8
14.3
69.0
9.5
21.4
79.4
11.1
38.1
27.8
17.5
58. T
10.3
54.7
36.3
38.1
Noto: Data for these series contain revisions beginning in 1958.
(NOVEMBER 1969)
102
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data which have notbeen seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
041.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
DIFFUSION INDEX FOR NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGR ICULTURAL
PAYROLLS — 30 INDUSTRIES ( 1 -MONTH SPAN)
III Q
Annual
IV Q
AVERAGE
...
1947..
...
61.7
56.7
56.7
45.0
55.0
48.3
68.3
71.7
75.0
58.3
70.0
...
52.2
62.8
67.6
1948..
1949..
1950..
51.7
5.0
53.3
33.3
20.0
68.3
55.0
26.7
83.3
38.3
36.7
85.0
68.3
25.0
83.3
80.0
20.0
81.7
68.3
23.3
91.7
46.7
53.3
96,7
48.3
70.0
76.7
35. 0
53.3
75.0
40.0
43.3
66.7
28,3
60.0
71,7
46,7
17,2
68.3
62.2
27.2
83.3
54,4
48,9
68.4
34.4
52.2
71.1
49.4
36.4
77.8
1951..
1952..
1953..
90.0
61.7
75.0
86.7
58.3
71.7
71.7
56.7
78.3
71.7
58.3
63.3
46.7
53.3
60,0
61.7
66.7
46.7
45.0
51.7
45,0
36.7
73.3
26.7
35.0
81.7
25.0
46.7
86.7
21.7
68.3
88.3
25.0
68.3
80.0
23.3
82.8
58.9
75.0
60.0
59.4
56,7
38,9
68.9
32.2
61.1
85.0
23.3
60.7
68.1
46.8
1954..
1955..
1956..
20.0
71.7
68.3
28.3
80.0
66.7
28.3
96.7
46.7
23.3
76.7
63.3
28.3
88.3
40.0
26.7
91.7
31.7
41.7
51.7
25.0
43.3
63.3
80.0
60.0
71.7
33.3
61.7
76.7
78.3
83.3
68.3
41.7
61.7
75.0
66.7
25.5
82.8
60.6
26.1
85.6
45,0
48.3
62.2
46.1
68.9
73.3
62.2
42.2
76.0
53.5
1957..
1958..
1959. .
41.7
20.0
96.7
50.0
8.3
75.0
48,3
16.7
91.7
35.0
20.0
88.3
26.7
40.0
83.3
35.0
63,3
66.7
40.0
63.3
65.0
45.0
85.0
46.7
3'6.7
90.0
68.3
30.0
70.0
33.3
20.0
86.7
60.0
20.0
81.7
75.0
46,7
15.0
87.8
32.2
41.1
79.4
40,6
79.4
60.0
23.3
79.5
56.1
35.7
53.8
70.8
i960..
1961.,
1962..
75.0
46.7
58.3
75.0
30.0
75.0
36.7
58.3
68.3
51.7
61.7
83.3
28.3
78.3
66.7
25.0
88.3
58.3
36.7
66.7
56.7
41.7
78.3
66.7
25.0
56.7
53.3
21.7
81.7
50.0
23.3
81.7
36.7
16,7
68,3
43.3
62.2
45.0
67.2
35.0
76.1
69.4
34.5
67.2
58.9
20.6
77.2
43.3
38.1
66*4
59.7
1963. .
1964. .
1965..
63.3
51.7
68.3
41.7
73.3
81.7
73.3
66.7
81.7
68.3
75.0
60.0
68.3
65.0
63.3
56.7
68.3
75.0
66.7
75.0
90.0
61.7
68.3
75.0
65.0
90.0
81.7
70.0
53.3
88.3
40.0
73.3
90.0
63.3
71.7
85,0
59.4
63.9
77.2
64.4
69.4
66.1
64.5
77.8
82.2
57.8
66.1
87.8
61.5
69.3
78.3
1966. .
1967..
86.7
80.0
81.7
35.0
93.3
40.0
83.3
40.0
76.7
36.7
90.0
65.0
63.3
41.7
75.0
66.7
46.7
46.7
73.3
65.0
66.7
93.3
58.3
73,3
87.2
51.7
83.3
47.2
61.7
51.7
66.1
77.2
74,6
57.0
om.
DIFFUSION INDEX FOR NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGR ICULTURAL
PAYROLLS — 30 INDUSTRIES (6-MONTH SPAN)
1945. .
1946, ,
1947. *
AVERAGE
43.3
46.7
56.7
65.0
73.3
83*3
81.7
75.0
71.7
48.9
73.9
76.1
1948. .
1949,.
1950..
43.3
16.7
73.3
43.3
10.0
93.3
51.7
11.7
83.3
53,3
15.0
93.3
55.0
20.0
98.3
53,3
20.0
100.0
70.0
33.3
100.0
68.3
33.3
93.3
4 3 ,,3
96«7
25.0
55.0
96.7
16.7
56.7
90.0
15.0
60.0
80.0
47.8
12.8
83.3
53.9
18.3
97.2
60.5
38.9
96.7
18.9
57.2
88.9
45.3
31.8
91.5
1951..
1952..
1953..
76.7
66.7
86.7
76.7
63.3
71.7
73.3
58.3
70.0
63.3
55.0
68.3
46.7
63.3
55.0
40.0
83.3
33.3
38.3
85.0
26.7
48.3
96.7
30.0
48.3
93.3
20.0
50.0
90.0
16.7
50.0
86.7
20.0
73.3
85.0
20.0
75.6
62.8
76.1
50.0
67,2
52.2
45.0
91.7
25.6
57.8
67.2
18.9
57.1
77,2
43.2
1954..
1955..
1956..
16.7
88.3
71.7
15.0
83.3
63.3
13.3
93.3
56.7
23.3
93.3
36.7
16.7
95.0
46.7
18.3
81.7
45.0
40.0
80.0
41.7
56.7
78.3
51.7
60.0
76.7
55.0
71.7
80.0
68.3
83.3
83.3
60.0
90.0
76.7
61.7
15.0
88.3
63.9
19.4
90.0
42.8
52.2
78.3
49.5
81.7
80.0
63.3
42.1
84,2
54,9
1957..
1958. .
1959..
48.3
13.3
95.0
38.3
15.0
91.7
26.7
15.0
95.0
26.7
13.3
88.3
25.0
21.7
88.3
20.0
65.0
73.3
16.7
68.3
61.7
16.7
85.0
51.7
11.7
91.7
58.3
18.3
93.3
65.0
13.3
96.7
73.3
13,3
95.0
70.0
37.8
14.4
93.9
23.9
33.3
83.3
15.0
81.7
57.2
15.0
95.0
69.4
22.9
56.1
76.0
I960..
1961..
1962. .
78.3
20.0
86.7
80.0
28.3
88.3
48.3
65.0
88.3
38.3
76.7
75.0
26.7
83.3
80.0
30.0
88.3
76.7
20.0
80.0
58.3
16.7
88.3
46.7
21.7
81.7
36,7
20.0
81.7
45. O
21.7
85.0
43.3
20.0
80.0
56.7
68.9
37.8
87.8
31.7
82.8
77.2
19.5
83.3
47.2
20*6
82.2
46.3
35.1
71.5
65.1
1963. .
1964..
1965..
56.7
63,3
78.3
68,3
70.0
78.3
65.0
70.0
76.7
65.0
86.7
90.0
68.3
81.7
90.0
70.0
90.0
85.0
70.0
80.0
93.3
51.7
93.3
93.3
56.7
91.7
93.3
48.3
81,7
93.3
66.7
88.3
9,1.7
60.0
90.0
93.3
63.3
67.8
77.8
67.8
86.1
88.3
59.5
88.3
93.3
58.3
86.7
92.8
62.2
82.2
88.0
1966. .
1967. .
93.3
50.0
93.3
41.7
88.3
43.3
83.3
36.7
83.3
40.0
73.3
40.0
73.3
51.7
71,7
78.3
70.0
66.7
73.3
68.3
65.0
83.3
53.3
85.0
91.6
45.0
80.0
36.9
71.7
65.6
63.9
78.9
76.8
57.1
Note:
SOeO
Data for these series contain revisions beginning in 1958 for the 1-month index and 1957 for the 6-month index.
(NOVEMBER 1969)
103
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for BCD series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data are published in this appendix for (a) new series which have been
added to the report, (b) series which have been revised recently, and (c) series which have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the "Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which
historical data for each series were published. Current data are shown in the basic tables of the report. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ® {indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title. Official source agency Quarterly and/or annual totals are presented in this table wherever possible. These figures are often calculated from data with more digits or from data whish have notbeen seasonally adjusted;
therefore, they may differ slightly from totals and averages computed from data shown in the report.
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
054.
Apr.
May
June
Quarterly
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
NOV.
Dec.
IQ
II Q
DIFFUSION INDEX FOR SALES OF RETAIL^TORES—23
TYPES OF STORES ( 1-MONTH SPAN)
IIQ
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE
.**
...
1947. .
1948. .
1949..
1950..
16!}
50.0
56.2
29.2
75.0
62.5
37.5
62.5
58.3
60.4
50.0
37.5
54.2
60.4
81.2
25.0
79.2
60.4
16.7
89.6
52.1
60.4
66.7
39.6
89.6
12.5
41.7
35.4
20.8
37.5
83.3
35.4
79.2
43.7
91.7
27^8
62.5
59.0
46.5
63.2
50.7
55.
ft
56.3
52.8
54.1
49.3
46.0
57.8
1951..
1952..
1953..
91.7
60.4
29.2
25.0
47.9
54.2
18.7
18.7
66.7
31.2
60.4
20.8
50.0
66.7
31.2
33.3
75.0
39.6
58.3
43.7
31.2
79.2
58.3
79,2
37.5
41.7
35.4
70.8
79.2
33.3
79.2
33.3
50.0
37.5
79.2
45.8
45.1
42.3
50.0
38.2
67.4
30.5
58.3
47.9
48.6
62,5
63.9
43.0
51.0
55.4
43.0
1954.,
1955..
1956.,
52.1
72.9
62.5
93.7
43.7
37.5
22.9
60.4
85.4
43.7
91.7
27.1
50.0
43.7
81.2
75.0
29.2
70.8
56.2
85.4
31.2
27.1
50.0
77.1
79.2
75.0
70.8
75.0
83.3
54.2
60.4
47.9
77.1
64.6
39.6
50.0
56.2
S9.0
61.8
56.2
54,9
59.7
54.2
70.1
59.7
66.7
56,9
60.4
58.3
60.2
60.4
1957. .
1958..
1959..
37.5
50.0
58. 3
95.8
31.2
70,8
31.2
35.4
60.4
45.8
77.1
43.7
52.1
52.1
64.6
93.7
29.2
68,7
81.2
91.7
41.7
66.7
62.5
43.7
27.1
45.8
70.8
45.8
75.0
41.7
37.5
58.3
56.2
58.3
79.2
52.1
64.8
38.9
63.2
63.9
52.8
59.0
58.3
66.7
52,1
47.2
70.8
50,0
56.1
57.3
56.1
I960..
1961..
1962.,
47.9
58.3
58.3
43.7
41.7
50.0
45. a
60.4
70.8
89.6
22.9
68.7
4.2
79.2
58.3
66,7
77.1
18.7
45.8
60.4
83.3
45.8
68.7
75.0
45.8
39.6
64.6
79.2
63.3
39.6
22.9
87.5
87.5
37.5
60.4
66.7
45.8
53.5
59.7
53.5
59,. 7
48.6
'+S.8
56.2
74*3
46.5
77.1
64,6
47.9
61.6
61.8
1963. .
1964..
1965. .
50.0
43.8
63.0
54,2
70.8
65.2
52,1
52.1
30.4
41.7
52.1
54.3
52.1
66.7
87.0
75.0
66.7
43.5
66.7
39.1
80.4
64.6
71.7
47.8
25.0
34.8
73.9
58.3
78.3
76.3
54.2
56.5
78.3
77.1
60.9
37.0
52.1
55.6
52.9
56.3
61.3
61.6
!>2.1
43.5
67.4
63.2
65.2
64.5
55.9
57.8
61.6
1966. .
1967..
76.1
87.0
65. a
60.9
43. S
43,5
60.9
30.4
34.8
95.7
32.6
47.8
43.5
47.8
60.9
60.9
76*1
43.5
37.0
69.6
67.4
41.3
47.8
67.4
56.5
56.5
59.4
S2.2
60.2
51.5
50.7
56.9
56.7
39.1
D54.
DIFFUSION INDEX FOR SALES OF RETAIL STORES — 23
T Y P E S OF STORES (9-MONTH SPAN) 2
AVERAGE:
1
9 4 5, .
1946, *
1948 . .
1949, ,
1950..
20.8
95,8
14.6
85.4
12.5
97.9
12.5
100.0
12.5
100.0
66.7
25.0
97.9
64.6
27.1
68,7
62.5
47.9
91.7
33.3
43.7
100.0
39,6
54.2
100.0
29.2
52.1
91.7
33.3
87.5
47.9
16.0
93,0
16.7
99.3
53,5
39.6
86.8
34.0
64.6
79.9
34!2
89.8
1951..
1952..
1953..
45.8
87,5
70.8
58.3
9S.9
70.8
66.7
75.0
§8,3
83.3
70.8
54.2
54.2
66.7
31.2
37.5
79.2
37.5
56.2
72.9
29,2
62.5
87,5
29.2
85.4
70.8
33.3
79.2
83.3
45.8
77.1
72.9
43.7
83.3
56.2
50.0
56.9
86.1
66.6
58.3
72.2
41,0
61). 0
7-f.l
30.6
79.9
70. S
46.5
65.8
76.6
46.2
1954. .
1955..
1956..
37.5
95,8
79,2
52.1
97.9
87. S
64,6
95,8
62.5
58.3
85.4
79.2
62.5
91.7
83.3
75.0
87.5
87.5
52.1
89.6
91.7
77.1
83.3
87.5
79.2
72.9
83.3
91.7
77.1
91.7
83.3
87.5
66.7
93.7
66.7
79.2
51.4
96.5
76.4
65.3
88.2
83.3
69.5
81 .9
8T.5
89.6
77.1
79.2
63.9
85.9
81.6
1957. .
1958..
1959. .
62.5
4U7
91,7
75.0
47.9
95.8
75.0
66.7
97.9
75.0
79.2
89.6
62.5
70.8
87.5
62.5
64.6
83.3
47,9
87.5
70.8
66.7
93.7
75.0
70.8
79.2
79.2
43.7
91.7
62.5
33.3
91.7
58.3
37.5
89.6
75.0
70 . 8
52«1
95 ., 1
66.7
71.5
86.8
61.8
86.3
75. 0
38.2
91,0
65.3
59,4
75.4
80.6
I960..
1961..
1962..
52.1
41.7
87.5
52.1
58.3
-91.7
§2.1
62.5
91.7
41.7
68,7
89.6
43.7
79,2
89.6
52.1
85.4
72.9
43.7
87.5
95.8
43.7
87.5
95.8
22.9
95.8
87.5
54.2
91.7
87.5
45.8
87.5
91.7
43.7
89.6
83.3
52.1
54.2
90.3
45.8
77.8
84.0
36.8
90.3
93.0
47.9
89.6
87.5
45.6
78.0
88.7
1963..
1964. .
1965..
70.8
79.2
80.4
79,2
100.0
87.0
85.4
85.4
87.0
77.1
83.3
73.9
60.4
83.3
87.0
52.1
83.3
87.0
62.5
73.9
95.7
87.5
78,3
91.3
70.8
73.9
95.7
91.7
76.1
95.7
83.3
54.3
95.7
77.1
78.3
91.3
76.5
88.2
84.8
63.2
83.3
82.6
73.6
75.4
94.2
84.0
69.6
94.2
74.8
79,1
89.0
1966..
1967..
82.6
69.6
84.3
91.3
78.3
95.7
78.3
87.0
82.6
91.3
78.3
56.5
76.1
82.6
65.2
78.3
32.6
82.6
87.0
95.7
78.3
95.7
82.6
73.9
81.9
85.5
79.7
78.3
74,,6
Blu2
82.6
68.4
79.7
83.4
'•Data contain revisions beginning in 1962.
Data for this oorios have not previously been shown.
2
104
(NOVEMBER 1969)
TECHNICAL PAPER
Seasonal and Related Adjustments in Census Housing
Starts and Permits Series
John C. Musgrave
Bureau of the Census
ABSTRACT
In order to enable the user to observe the underlying trend-cycle movements
in economic time series, many of these series are published in seasonally
adjusted form. However, after appropriate seasonal adjustments, a number
of series also contain erratic month-to-month changes which obscure
current cyclical trends. To the extent that these changes are caused by
measurable factors, such as working-day patterns, it should be possible
to estimate and remove them to provide a smoother series for analytical
purposes. This paper examines some causes of irregularity in economic
series and presents the results of research on seasonal and related adjustments for the Bureau of the Census series on housing starts and
permits.
INTRODUCTION AND CONCLUSIONS
The seasonally adjusted series on number of housing
units authorized by building permits and number of housing
units started are considered to be important leading indicators both of the volume of residential construction activity
and of aggregate economic activity. Since construction of
new housing units currently accounts for about 30 percent
of total new construction activity, which in turn represents
about 10 percent of total current-dollar gross national
product (GNP), these series are indicators of a substantial
part of the Nation's economic activity. (The value of
construction of new housing units was estimated at about
$23 billion in 1968.) Leading indicators of residential
construction activity are especially important, since housing
construction is often a substantial contributor to cyclical
instability in the economy. In addition to the economic
impact which residential building represents, the supply
of new housing units has important social implications
because of the Nation's critical needs for adequate shelter,
both present and future. Clearly, reliable indicators of
residential construction are of the utmost importance for
both public and private users.
The monthly patterns of housing starts and permit authorizations contain many real-world irregularities which cause
the seasonally adjusted series on starts and permits to be
highly erratic on a month-to-month basis.1 The erratic
movements in these series restrict their usefulness as
short-term economic indicators. Thus, smoother indicators
are needed to supplement the starts and permits series for
analytical purposes. Research directed toward producing
smoother indicators of residential construction, as outlined
in this paper, has attempted to:
Definitions and compilation procedures for housing starts
and permits are given on page 109.
a. Reduce the irregularity in the present monthly seasonally adjusted series on housing starts and permits
and
b. Develop new indicators of residential construction
activity.
Research to date has suggested that some data may be
available to produce supplementary leading indicators of
housing construction which are smoother than the present
series on housing starts and permits. Such supplementary
indicators would serve to indicate turning points in housing
activity rather than measure the levels of starts or authorizations. Also evident is the need for additional series, such
as expectations of homebuilders and flow of funds to homebuilding construction. More research on residential construction indicators and a program to collect the new statistics
indicated in this paper would be highly desirable.
The major conclusions which may be drawn from the
research to date are as follows:
1. Seasonally adjusted monthly series on number of new
privately-owned housing units started (Series 7 in Business
Conditions Digest (BCD), reference 9) can be smoothed
slightly by working-day and weather adjustments. However, any monthly series based on the actual number of
units started is likely to be relatively irregular because
of the nature of residential starts. Supplementary series
based on the value or floor area of units started or an
index based on the number of residential buildings started
might prove to be smoother monthly indicators than the
This paper was presented at the Annual Meeting of the American
Statistical Association, August 19-22, 1969, New York City.
The author is indebted to Bernard Freedman of the Federal
Reserve Board and Benjamin D. Kaplan of the Bureau of the
Census for helpful suggestions in preparing this paper.
105
number of units started. A monthly series is currently
available on estimated value of units started, but it is of
questionable accuracy. Data on number of residential
buildings started and floor area of units started are collected but are not presently tabulated on a monthly basis.
supreme interest. For many economic time series, seasonal
and irregular fluctuations tend to obscure movements in
the trend cycle on a month-to-month (or quarter~to-quarter)
basis. Thus, these series are often presented in seasonally
adjusted form in order to facilitate such analysis.2
2. The seasonally adjusted monthly series on number
of new privately-owned housing units authorized by building
permits (Series 29 in BCD), while not as irregular as the
corresponding series on starts, contains enough real-world
erratic movements to make meaningful analysis of monthly
changes difficult. Experimental results have shown that
smoother indicators based on permits include a series on
permit value of new private housing units authorized and
a series based on the number of new private residential
buildings authorized. A monthly series on the square foot
area of new private housing units authorized might also
provide a smoother indicator, although the basic data
would need to be collected to produce such a series.
With the aid of electronic computers and computer programs for seasonal adjustment, it is a fairly simple matter
to seasonally adjust economic time series. TheX-11 variant
of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, for
example, provides seasonal adjustment factors for the period
under consideration and estimates factors 12 months ahead.
However, many series show a substantial amount of irregularity in month-to-month changes after appropriate seasonal
adjustments. In these cases, some kind of adjustment in
addition to the standard seasonal adjustment is necessary
if the monthly changes in the series are to be useful for
short-term trend-cycle analysis.
3. A total measure of the supply of new housing would
include mobile homes, which are not included in the
definition of housing starts, a series designed to cover
only new housing resulting from the construction process.
Mobile home shipments, as reported by the Mobile Homes
Manufacturers Association, presently are estimated to be
running at a level equal to about one-third of all new singlefamily housing starts. Thus, a monthly series representing
the sum of housing starts and mobile home shipments
might provide a useful leading indicator of almost all of
the new units which will be entering the housing inventory,
even though there are differences in timing and concepts
between the two series. Tests have indicated that this
"composite" series is smoother than BCD Series 7.
4. A survey of short-term building expectations of
homebuilders (one or two quarters ahead) might provide the
basis for a good indicator of the turning points in housing
construction (although not necessarily of the level of such
construction). However, such a survey would not necessarily be straightforward, since a good deal of homebuilding
is done by intermittent builders and by homeowners. More
work is clearly needed in this area.
5. Comprehensive series on the flow of funds data for
homebuilding construction may represent very reliable
monthly indicators of homebuilding activity. While some
limited flow-of-funds data are currently available, extensive work in this area is clearly needed. The work of
the Department of Housing and Urban Development on
financial commitments and flows may provide the basis
for important indicators of residential construction
activity.
There are basically two methods for dealing with irregularities in seasonally adjusted series. The most general
method is to smooth the series with some sort of moving
average. An unweighted moving average with number of
months equal to MCD (months for cyclical dominance) has
been widely used for this purpose. This MCD moving average
has the advantage of being generally powerful enough to
smooth out short-term irregularities in the series. On the
other hand, this gain in smoothness is offset by a loss in
currency. Thus, a five-term moving average results in a
loss of 2 months at the end of the series (e.g., an average of
January-May data would be centered on March).
Another method for reducing the irregularity in a series
is to ferret out those causes of irregularities which can be
identified and removed. Irregularities may generally be
classified as due to measurable phenomena or random
phenomena. Random occurrences, which cannot be measured
or predicted, are a nuisance with which the analyst may have
to live. If these random influences are finally determined
to be so large as to make timely and meaningful analysis
of short-term cyclical trends impossible, the series should
be discarded as an indicator of short-term changes in favor
of more reliable indicators.
Another class of fluctuations contained in the irregular
component consists of those which are attributable to measurable phenomena. To the extent that these influences can
be identified and measured, they can be eliminated from the
irregular component and, hence, from the seasonally adjusted
series.
Examples of such measurable fluctuations are as follows:
1. Working-Day Variation
IRREGULARITIES IN ECONOMIC TIME SERIES
Economic time series are generally regarded as consisting
of three major components:
1. Trend-cycle--long-term trend and business-cycle
influences underlying the series;
2. Seasonal--repetitive intrayear fluctuations occurring in a constant or slowly changing manner from year
to year;
3. Irregular--random disturbances and erratic shortterm movements which cannot be explained as seasonal,
cyclical, or trend movements.
For purposes of business-cycle analysis and short-term
forecasting, it is the trend-cycle component which is of
106
Working-day (or trad ing-day) variation refers to monthto-month changes caused by differing numbers of working
(or trading) days in a month. Thus, series such as housing
starts would be expected to be higher in an April with five
Mondays and five Tuesdays than an April with five Saturdays
and five Sundays, ceteris paribus. (In outdoor work, however,
ceteris paribus may be the exception rather than the rule.)
2. Weather Variation
Variation due to month-to-month changes in averse weather conditions is taken into account in the seasonal factors.
However, fluctuations due to changes from year to year about
2
For discussions of time series analysis and seasonal adjustment techniques, see references 5, 6^ and 7.
the average temperature or precipitation for a particular
month may introduce a substantial amount of month-to-month
variability which cannot be adjusted for as part of the standard seasonal adjustment process. Thus, change sin the amount
of snowfall from one January to the next may contribute to
irregularities in housing starts and other series by varying
the number of effective working days. To the extent that the
relevant weather data are available, the influence of weather
factors may be estimated and appropriate adjustments made.
Results of research on measuring the influence of weather
on housing starts are given later in this paper and in more
detail in reference 4. Research on weather adjustments for
Finnish foreign trade and U.S. retail sales series are
described in references 1 and 8, respectively.
3. Holiday Variation
The seasonal component for certain series may include
some variation due to the incidence of certain holidays. For
instance, a substantial part of the seasonality in monthly
retail sales is caused by the Christmas trade. However, the
seasonal component does not take account of fluctuations
caused by holidays with variable dates. Thus, apparel sales
for the months of March and April may vary considerably
depending on the date of Easter in a particular year. Adjustments for holiday variation are usually possible, since the
date on which a holiday falls in a particular year is always
known in advance.
4. Model-Year Variation
Irregularities in a series may also be due to shifts in
dates of model-year changeovers (automobiles), fiscal years,
or changes in bookkeeping practices or tax laws. To the
extent that the dates of these changes are known, it is usually
possible to measure and adjust for these variations.
Examples of series in which problems of irregularities
are especially acute are housing starts and permits. The
usefulness of these series as economic indicators and attempts
to increase their usefulness through seasonal and related
adjustments are discussed in the following sections.
LEADING INDICATORS OF RESIDENTIAL
CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY
Seasonally adjusted series on private housing starts and
permits (e.g., Series 7 and 29 in BCD) have been used as
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) leading indicators for many years. The series received scores of 63
and 67, respectively, out of a possible score of 100, on the
six-criterion scoring system developed by Moore andShiskin
(reference 3). This scoring system rates each indicator on
the basis of six criteria (economic significance, statistical
adequacy, timing, conformity, smoothness, and currency).
While the two series have reasonably good records of timing
and conformity to the NBER reference cycles and a good score
for currency (they are both available about 15 days after the
end of the reference month), month-to-month irregularities
in these seasonally adjusted series restrict their usefulness
as indicators.
The monthly seasonally adjusted series on the number of
private nonfarm housing units started (BCD Series 7) provides a directly-measured estimate of construction starts
of the major portion of the new units which will be entering
the housing inventory in the near future. Its usefulness as
a monthly indicator of short-term cyclical trends is hampered
by its irregularity. There are felt to be several causes of
this irregularity, as outlined below:
1. The present housing starts series (BCD Series 7)
is not adjusted for the number of working days or abnormal
weather conditions, which could account for substantial
month-to-month changes in starts. Attempts to measure
and adjust for these effects are described in the next
section.
2. Any monthly figure on housing starts represents
a very heterogeneous group of housing units. Month-tomonth irregular movements in these starts may be due
to changes in the mix of units by value, size, region, and
other factors.
3. The current definition of housing starts counts all
units in a multifamily building as started in the month
when work is started on the foundation of the building.
When several large buildings are started in one month,
this can contribute to irregularity in the starts series.
Since multifamily starts are becoming a larger portion of
total starts, this effect could become more serious in the
future.
Attempts to produce a smoother monthly starts series have
yielded series which are only slightly less irregular than the
current series. In no case has a series with MCD less than
5 been derived for the period under consideration (1960-1968).
This seems to indicate that more work is needed on related
series, such as building permits, builders' expectations, and
flow of funds, which could provide supplementary monthly
indicators of the direction of change in housing activity.
The monthly index of number of new private housing units
authorized by local building permit systems (BCD Series 29)
provides a directly-measured estimate of housing construction
authorized in permit-issuing jurisdictions. These jurisdiction currently account for about 85 percent of the housing
starts which are represented in BCD Series 7. While some
units are started in these places without obtaining building
permits and some of the permits issued are never used,
there is a very close relation between starts and permit
authorizations in these places, with a large percentage of
the units authorized being started within 1 month of
authorization.
The series on housing permits is smoother than the
corresponding starts series for several reasons. First,
the issuance of a building permit is not so directly dependent
on weather or other factors which can impede construction
starts. Also, local permit offices are generally operated on
a 5-day week, so that a straightforward working-day adjustment may be applied. However, there are several other
factors which are felt to cause irregularity in the permits
series:
1. Similar to the case of starts, all units in a multifamily building enter the permit statistics in the month
in which the building is authorized. If permits are obtained
for four buildings of 400 units each in the same month,
the impact of all 1,600 units is felt in that month in the
permits series. This effect probably contributes to relatively more irregularity in permits than in starts, since
multifamily housing makes up a larger percentage of the
permits series. Also, permits for several buildings
may be taken out in the same month, whereas the buildings
are likely to be started over a period of several months.
2. Changes in local building codes and rezoning actions
in jurisdictions with a large volume of residential construction may result in builders obtaining permits authorizing a large number of housing units prior to the change
with a subsequent substantial decrease in permit applications after the change (or vice versa),.
107
Some experimentation has been possible to measure and
adjust for some of the above causes of irregularities in starts
and permits within the current framework of available data,
and this research is described in the following section.
RESEARCH IN ADJUSTING HOUSING STARTS
AND PERMITS
Several theories for possible causes of irregularities in
housing starts were advanced in the preceding section. Where
data were available to test these theories, the appropriate
tests have been made. At this time, there is no way of
determining whether series based on the value of units
started, square foot area of units started, and the number of
buildings started are smoother indicators than the present
series on .number of housing units started (BCD Series 7).
A monthly series is currently available on estimated value of
units started, but it is of questionable accuracy. Data on
number of residential buildings started and floor area of
units started are collected but are not presently tabulated on
a monthly basis.
Tests for the existence of working-day variation in the
present starts series have indicated that a working-day pattern
can be successfully estimated from the single-family starts
data. This working-day adjustment does improve the series
somewhat (MCD is reduced from 6 to 5). The estimated
daily weights are given in table 2, line 1, and summary measures of variability before and after the working-day adjustment are given in table 3, line 4.
The procedure by which the working-day pattern is estimated from the single-family starts data is a regression
routine included as an option in the Census X-ll seasonal
adjustment program, which is described in detail in reference
1 ? The program computes preliminary estimates of the
seasonal, trend-cycle, and irregular components of the series.
The preliminary estimates of the irregular values, which are
assumed to contain the work ing-day variation in the series
(if any), are regressed upon independent "daily weight" variables representing the number of times each day of the week
occurs in each month under consideration. These estimated
daily weights, if statistically significant, are then used to
adjust the original series for working-day variation. This
procedure makes possible an adjustment for such variation
without any a priori knowledge of working-day patterns.
Another factor which undoubtedly causes month-to-month
irregularities in housing starts is unusual weather. While the
seasonal adjustment process allows for differences in average
weather conditions from month to month, it cannot take
account of variations about these monthly averages. Thus, an
unusually snowy or rainy month could depress starts considerably, and this could result in a sharp drop in the seasonally adjusted starts series for that month. Experiments
to adjust for this type of affect us ing monthly data on rainfall,
snowfall, and freezing weather have shown that this irregularity is small relative to the total amount of irregularity in
the series. Hence, a "weather" adjustment for the present
starts series produced only a slight improvement (see table 3,
lines 5 and 6).
The research on adjusting for unusual weather is detailed
in reference 4. The method used to measure weather influences is similar to the method used to estimate working-day
variation, which is described above. A preliminary estimate
of the irregular component, which was assumed to contain
weather-induced irregularities, was derived using the X-ll
3
The nature and estimation of working-day
discussed more fully in reference 13.
108
variation
are
seasonal program. The monthly irregular values were then
regressed on three independent variables representing number
of days with measurable percipitatiion, number of days when
the temperature did not rise above 32*' F, and total inches of
sleet and snow for the appropriate months. The results were
used to combine the weather data into monthly adjustment
factors.
The effect of adding estimates of "starts" of new mobile
homes to the present housing starts estimates was tested by
using the Mobile Homes Manufacturers Association's monthly
estimates of mobile home shipments. The shipments series
was adjusted for seasonal and working-day influences using
the X-ll program. (The estimated working-day pattern is
given in table 2, line 2, and the estimated seasonal pattern
in table 3, line 2.) The seasonally adjusted mobile homes
shipments series was then added to the seasonally adjusted
housing starts series (BCD Series 7) to produce a "composite"
series. As expected, this composite is smoother than BCD
Series 7 (see table 3, lines 1, 2, and 3). The two monthly
series in this composite are not starictly comparable, since
the mobile homes shipments estimates are based on reports
from a panel of manufacturers, while the starts estimates are
developed from sample field surveys of the issuance and use
of building permits in jurisdictions where permits are required and of housing construction started in places where
building permits are not required. Further work on the
relation of mobile homes to housing units provided through
the construction process and the implication of both of these
components of the new housing supply for cyclical analysis
and other uses is definitely needed.
The building permit data currently available provided the
basis for more detailed experimentation Chan the starts data
mentioned above. On a priori grounds, working-day variation was expected to approximate a 5-day-week pattern, and
internally-computed working-day weights confirmed this.
Also, as expected, the series on number of multifamily units
authorized was considerably more irregular than the series
on number of single-family units authorized.
Since data on the number of multifamily buildings authorized
(those with 5 or more units) were available for several years,
it was possible to derive a series OR permit authorizations
adjusted for variation in the number of units in a building in
the form of an index based on the number of privately-owned
residential buildings authorized. The number of multifamily
buildings was multiplied by 18 (the average number of units
in a multifamily building for the past several years) and
added to the series on 1-family and 2- to 4-family authorizations. The result is a series which is smoother than the
present BCD Series 29 on number of units authorized (see
table 3, lines 9 and 9A).
It has been theorized that there are economic forces at
work which tend to make a series on the current-dollar
value of housing units authorized or started smoother on a
month-to-month basis than the corresponding series on the
number of units authorized or started. The only comprehensive data currently available on value of authorizations
are the value figures given on building permit applications.
While these figures are known to have a downward bias
which is probably becoming more serious over time and
which may not be consistent from month to month, a series
based on permit values is likely to behave about the same
way around business cycle turning points as a series based
on actual values of units authorized. As shown in table 3,
lines 7a and 8a, this permit value series is smoother than
the current series on number of units authorized (BCD
Series 29). This gain in smoothness is probably due to
two effects.
1, Single-family units, which are inherently smoother
in their pattern of authorizations than multifarnily units,
are proportionately more important in total value than
in total number of units authorized.
2. The behavior of value figures is smoother than
figures on number of units authorized for both singlefamily and multifarnily units (see table 3, lines 7b and 8b
and lines 7c and 8c).
Another theory which was tested was that the monthly
pattern of commitments of funds to housing starts behaves
in a smoother manner than the monthly pattern of units
started. Two ideal series to measure this flow-of-funds
concept would consist of monthly data on the dollar amount
of construction loans closed and the dollar amount of funds
disbursed for construction of housing by all sources of
financing. The only series available for testing were the
Federal Home Loan Bank Board's series on loans closed by
savings and loan associations for construction and purchase
of 1- to 4-family houses, which seem to provide reliable
signals of turning points in housing construction. Thus, work
to develop comparable series for other financial sources,
including equity sources, seems highly desirable.
In summary, further statistical adjustments to the present
series on housing starts and permits (3CD Series 7 and 29)
do smooth these series somewhat, although the gains in
smoothness are relatively small. Monthly data are available,
however, on housing permits and, to some extent, on financial
flows to housing construction which are not as irregular as
the present BCD Series 7 and 29. Hence, it is possible to
produce supplementary series which are smoother monthly
indicators of housing construction. It is obvious that there
are data gaps which should be filled to provide additional
needed indicators of housing construction. Thus, it would
be highly desirable to continue work to determine the usefulness of the kinds of data discussed in this paper and the
feasibility of collecting such data.
DEFINITIONS AND COMPILATION PROCEDURES FOR HOUSING STARTS AND PERMITS"
Housing Starts
Building Permits
A housing start consists of the start of construction on a
new housing unit, when located within a new building which
is intended primarily as a housekeeping residential building
designed for nontransient occupancy. Start of construction
for private housing units is defined as the beginning of
excavation for the foundation of a building. All housing units
in a multifarnily building are counted as being started when
excavation for the building is started. A housing unit is a
single room or group of rooms intended for occupancy as
separate living quarters by a family, by a group of unrelated
persons living together, or by a person living alone. A housekeeping residential building is one consisting primarily of
housing units. Housing starts exclude group quarters (such as
dormitories and rooming houses) and transient accommodations (such as transient hotels, motels, and tourist courts)
and mobile homes (trailers).
The local jurisdictions with building permit systems for
which figures on units authorized are currently available
account for a major portion of residential building in the
United States. For the country as a whole, about 85 percent
of all private housing units are currently constructed in
permit-issuing places.
Beginning with January 1967, the index of number of
housing units authorized by building permits (BCD Series 29)
pertains to all of the approximately 13,000 places in the
United States which were identified in 1967 as having local
building permit systems. Coverage from 1963 to 1967 was
based on about 12,000 places which were identified as permitissuing jurisdictions in 1962. From 1959 to 1963, the series
relates to the roughly 10,000 places identified as permitissuing jurisdictions in 1959. From 1954 to 1959, BCD Series
29 relates to about 6,600 places; and prior to 1954, it relates
to about 4,000 places. A continuous series is derived by
adjusting the levels of the various sections of the series on
the basis of periods of overlap.
The procedure followed in arriving at the monthly building
permit authorization estimates involves the cumulating of
monthly data from:
1. All permit- issuing places that authorized 50 or more
housing units (20 or more in some States) in a recent year
and
2. Estimates for the less active permit-issuing places,
based on a sample of these places.
Compilation of the housing starts series in a four-step
procedure. First, an estimate is made of the number of
housing units for which building permits have been issued in
about 13,000 perm it-issuing places each month. Second, a
survey is made each month in a sample of these places to
determine actual starts (i.e., the rates of usage of these
permits). Third, having produced an estimate of the number
of units started in each month with permit authorization, an
upward adjustment of 3.3 percent is next made to the number
of one-family houses started to account for those units
started in permit-issuing jurisdictions without perm it authorization. The fourth step is to estimate the number of units
started in jurisdictions where building permit systems do not
exist. This is accomplished by sample field surveys of land
areas and information from sources knowledgeable about
housing starts.
^Condensed from appendix B of reference 10.
See also the
April 1969 issue of BCD for descriptions of these series and
the May and June 1968 issues of BCD for historical data.
109
Table 1. Estimated Seasonal Factors for Indicators of New Housing Activity
Series
Period
covered
1. Number of privately-owned housing units started
Jan. '60-Dec. '66..
(BCD Series 7)
Jan. '60-Oct. '68..
2. Manufacturers1 shipments of mobile homes.
3. Index of number of privately-owned housing units
authorized by building permits (BCD Series 29). . .Jan. '59-Dec. '65. .
Jan. '63-Dec. '68. .
4. Number of new 1-family houses sold
5. Face value of loans closed by savings and loan
associations for construction of 1- to 4-family
Jan. '55-Nov. '68. .
houses
6. Face value of loans closed by savings and loan
associations for purchase of 1- to 4-family
houses
Jan. '55-Nov. '68. .
Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
66.3
71,2
66.1
81.5
100.5 122.1 123.8 121.2 109.6 108.0 101 . ?107 . 6 8B.Q
105.8 106,5 109.4 117.1 100.8 118.0 113. £J 111.7 89.6
76.8
74.7
74.9
84.8
81.4
91.8
101.4 114.1
116.7 112.1 105.6 101. a 106.0 102.5
114.3 114.7 121.4 108.7 108.5 110.3 9 *i . 8 97.9
97.8
79.?
79.3
72.5
71.6
77.9
107.8 114.3 120.2 117.4 102.9
96. B 100.3
87.9
97.9
71.6
74.4
88.1
85.3
100.0 107.1 124.1 116.9
93.5
104.6
128.1 109.2
101.2
Note: These factors represent 1969 seasonal patterns estimated using the X-ll variant of the Census Method II aaasonal adjustment program (reference 7), except for lines 1 and 3. The factors for line 1 (BCD Series 7) and line 3 (BCD Scries 29) are
implicit 1968 factors derived by seasonally adjusting private housing starts and permits estimates by four geographic regions by
type of structure (one-family versus multifamily). The seasonally adjusted components are summed to produce soaoonally adjusted
total estimates of private housing starts and permits; and the implicit seasonal factors shown, in lines 1 and 3 are derived as
the ratios of the total unadjusted estimates to the total seasonally adjusted estimates for 1968. The seasonal factors applied
to the components of private housing starts and permits are given in reference 10.
The working-day adjustments applied to these series before seasonal adjustment are as follows:
Line 1. No working-day adjustment.
Lin© 2. See table 2, line 2.
Line 3. See table 2, line 3.
Line 4. See table 2, line 4.
Line 5. See table 2, line 5.
Line 6. See table 2, line 6.
Basic Data Sources:
Line
Line
Line
Line
Line
Line
1.
2.
3.
4,
5.
6.
Bureau of the Census (references 9 and 10), also published in reference 11.
Mobile Homes Manufacturers Association (reference 2), also published in reference 11.
Bureau of the Census (reference 9).
Bureau of the Census, published in reference 11.
Federal Home Loan Bank Board (reference 12).
(Same as lino 5.)
Table 2. Estimated Working-Day Weights for Indicators of New Housing Activity
Series
1. Number of privately-owned 1-family housing units
started (component of BCD Series 7)
Jan
2. Manufacterers' shipments of mobile homes
Jan
3. Index of number of privately-owned housing units
authorized by building permits (BCD Series 29) . .
4. Number of new 1-family houses sold
Jan
5. Face value of loans closed by savings and loan
associations for construction of 1- to 4-family
Jan
6. Face value of loans closed by savings and loan
associations for purchase of 1- to 4-family
houses* •••
Jan
Period
covered
'60-Sep '68..
'60-Oct '68..
Mon.
Tues.
Wed.
Thur.
Fri.
Sat.
1 900
778
1 474
1 094
1 664
1 239
379
1 572
1 4?8
207
l 443
210
031
1 400
1 400
1.409
1 400
.677
1 400
876
1 400
1 139
OOP
772
QQO
531
1.033
1.838
1 414
- 249
608
1.373
1 185
1 527
367
181
'63-Nov '68..
1.596
' 55-Nov '68..
1,378
'55-Nov '68. .
1.085
.978
1 282
Note: Working-day factors were estimated using the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program
(reference 7).
X
A priori weights.
Basic Data Sources:
Line
Line
Line
Line
Line
Line
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Bureau or the Census (reference 10), also published in reference 11.
Mobile Homes Manufacturers Association (reference 2), also published in reference 11.
Bureau of the Census (reference 9).
Bureau of the Census, published in reference 11.
Federal Home Loan Bank Board (reference 12).
(Same as line 5.)
110
Sun.
Table 3. Summary Measures of Variability in Indicators of New Housing
Series
1. Number of privately-owned nonfarm housing units started
(no working-day adjustment) (£QQ Series 7)
2. Manufacturers' shipments of mobile homes (internal
working-day adjustment-see table 2, line 2)
3. Housing starts plus shipments of mobile homes (sum of
4. Number of privately-owned 1-family housing units started:
a No working-day adjustment
•
b. Internal working-day adjustment (see table 2, line 1).
5. Number of privately-owned housing units started, Northeast
region (no working-day adjustment):
a No weather adjustment* »
b Weather-adjusted
......
6. Number of privately-owned housing units started, North
Central region (no working-day adjustment):
a. No weather adjustment
. . «.
7. Index of number of privately-owned housing units
authorized by building permits (a priori working-day
adjustment-see table 2, line 3):
a. Total (BCD Series 29)
8. Permit value of privately-owned housing units authorized
by building permits (a priori working-day adjustmentsee table 2, line 3):
a. Total
c Multifamily (2 or more) units* •
•
9. Index based on number of privately-owned residential
buildings authorized by building permits (a priori
working-day adjustment-see table 2, line 3)
9A. BCD Series 29 (see also 1 ine 7 a)
10. Face amount of loans closed by savings and loan associations for construction of 1- to 4-fairnly houses (internal
working-day adjustment—see table 2 line 5)
•••
11. Face amount of loans closed by savings and loan associations for purchase of 1- to 4-family houses (internal
working-day adjustment-see table 2, line 6)
Period
covered
Cl
T
C
T/C
MCD
Jan. '60-Oct. '68..
7.36
7.O4
1.50
Jan. '60-Oct. '68..
3.88
3.24
1.76
1.84
2
Jan '60-Oct '68- •
6.65
6.32
1.41
4.47
5
Jan, '60-Sept '68*.
Jan.'60-Sept/68..
6.79
6.16
6.79
5.80
1.32
1.30
5.14
4.48
6
5
Mar '60-July '65 .
Mar '60-July '65*.
17.67
14.09
17.46
13.92
1.21
0.92
14.43
15.18
6
6
Mar '60-July '65
Mar '60-July '65 .
12.53
11.19
12.29
11.09
1.48
1.62
8.30
6.85
6
6
Jan.'60-Dec.
'68..
Jan. f60-Dec. '68..
Jan. '60-Dec. '68
4.23
3.73
3.77
3.14
11.98
11.48
1.68
1.58
3.17
2.24
1.99
3.63
3
3
4
Jan. '60-Nov. '68
Jan '60-Nov '68
Jan '60-Nov '68..
4.05
3.77
7.79
3.18
2.99
7.18
1.74
1.61
2.77
1.84
1.86
2.59
2
2
3
Oct. '62-Dec. '68- •
Oct. '62-Dec. '68- -
4.48
4.53
3.42
3.88
2.55
1.99
1.34
1.95
2
2
Jan '55-Nov '68- •
4.39
3.79
1.99
1.90
Jan.'55-Nov. '68.-
2.75
1.63
2.02
0.81
5
4.68
X
3
1
Note: Summary measures are computed using seasonal adjustments from the X-ll variant of the Census Method II
seasonal adjustment program and working-day adjustments as noted above. These measures are explained in detail
in reference 5. CI, I, and C represent the average absolute month-to-month percent changes in the seasonally
adjusted series and irregular and trend-cycle components, respectively. MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
the shortest monthly span for which I/C becomes less than 1 and remains so. The seasonal adjustments applied to
these series are explained in table 1.
1
f/C~= 1.00 for 2-month span.
Basic Data Sources:
Line
Line
Line
Line
Line
Line
Line
Line
Linfe
Line
Line
Line
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
9A.
10.
11.
Bureau of the Census (references 9 and 10); also published "in reference 11.
Mobile Homes Manufacturers Association (reference 2); also published in reference 11.
(Sum of lines 1 and 2.)
Bureau of the Census (reference 10); also published in reference 11.
(Same as line 4.)
(Same as line 4.)
(Same as line 1.)
(Same as line 4.)
Bureau of the Census, published in reference 11.
(Same as line 1.)
Federal Home Loan Bank Board (reference 12).
(Same as line 10.)
Ill
REFERENCES
1.
Kukkonen, Pertti, Analysis of Seasonal and Other ShortTerm Variations With Applications to Finnish Economic
Time Series,, 1968.
2.
8.
Shor, Max, "Exploratory Work in Measurement of the
Effect of Weather on Retail Sales/ 1963 Proceedings of
the Business and Economics Section of the American
Statistical Association, 1964.
Mobile Homes Manufacturers Association,Mobile Homes
Sales: Purchases, Stocks and Shipments (monthly).
9.
U.S. Bureau of the Census, Business Conditions Digest
(monthly).
Moore, Geoffrey H. and Shiskin, Julius, Indicators of
Business Expansions and Contractions, National Bureau
of Economic Research Occasional Paper 103, 1967.
10. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Construction Report C20;
Housing Starts (monthly).
4.
Musgrave, John C., "Measuring the Influence of Weather
on Housing Starts," Construction Review, August 1968.
11. U.S. Business and Defense Services Administration,
Construction Review (monthly).
5.
Shiskin, Julius, "Electronic Computers and Business Indicators," Journal of Business, October 1957, republished
as National Bureau of Economic Research Occasional
Paper 57, 1957.
12. U.S. Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Journal of the
Federal Home Loan Bank Board (monthly).
3.
6.
Shiskin, Julius, "Time Series: Seasonal Adjustment,"
International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, 1968.
7.
Shiskin, Julius; Young, Allan H.; and Musgrave, John C.;
The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program, U.S. Bureau of the Census Technical
Paper 15, revised February 1967.
112
13. Young, Allan H., Estimating Trading-Day Variation in
Monthly Economic TimeSeries,{J.St Bureau of the Census
Technical Paper 12, 1965.
INDEX
Series Finding Guide
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
9flR
RNP in IQ^R dnllar^
9,21,38
5,65,71 ^ July' 68#
9,21,38,56 5,65,71,87 V Jan. '69
. .
ZLu. mipiic i price aen a to
217 Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
Aug.
Aug.
'69
'69
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
5,65
Aug.
'69
Oct.
12
12
12
12
12
12,26
5,65
J Aug. '69
July '69
July '69
July '69
July '69
Aug.
13,47
...... 13,49
13,49
14
14
14,53
14
270 Final sales durable goods
.
«
271. Change in business inventories, durable
ponds
.
...
274 Final sales nondurable poods
275. Change in business inventories,
A8. National Income Components
280 Compensation of employees
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances
Oct.
'69
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66,74
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
' 69
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
5,67
5,67
5,67
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'69
'69
'69
May '69
May '69
May '69
5,67
5,67
5,67,85
5,67
Aug.
Aug.
'69
'69
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
July '68#
5,67
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
15
15
5,67
5,67
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
15
5,67
Oct.
'69
16
16
16
16
5,67
5.67
5,67
5,68
5,68
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
17
17
5,68
5,68
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
17
17
17
5,68
5,68
5,68
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
, . . . 16
284 Rental income of persons
286. Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj
288 Net interest
A9. Saving
290. Gross saving, private and government
15
'69
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
A5. Foreign Trade
A6. Gov. Purchases, Goods and Services
260- Federal, State, and local governments
262. Federal Government
264 National defense
266 State and local governments
'69
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
11
11
11
Durable goods, current dollars
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars. . . 11
11
Automobiles, current dollars
11
Nondurable goods, current dollars
11
7S2 Exports of soods and services • >
253 Imports of goods and services
'69
'69
'69
'69
10
10
10
10
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230. Total, current dollars
244 Residential structures
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
5,65
5,65
5,65
224. Disposable personal income, current dol
225. Disposable personal income, constant dol ...
226. Per capita disposable personal income,
10
current dollars
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
constant dollars.
.... 10
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240. Gross private domestic investment, total
241 Nonresideritial fixed investment
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
9
9
9
A2. National and Personal Income
232.
233.
234,
236.
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
18,36
18
18
*5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance . . . 18,36
18
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
Oct. '69
Mar. '69
Oct. '69
Mar. '69
Oct. '69
Aug.
19
19
19
19,38
19
6,69
6,69
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
Mar. '69
Oct. '69
Aug. '68#
Oct. '69
Mar. '69
Mar. '69
Oct. '69
Mar. '69
Mar. '69
June '69
49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
4fi Helo-wanted advertising
48. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
*43 Unemployment rate total
45 Avg weekly insured unemploy. rate
20,38
20
20
20,39
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
descriptions
data
(issue date) (issue date)
B. CYCLICAL INDlCATORS-Con.
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al. Gross National Product
200 GNP in current dollars
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
'68
June '69
Aug.
'68
B2. Production, Income, Consumption, Trade
*20Q. GNP in current dollars
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production
*52 Personal income
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg,, constr , .
*56 Manufacturing and trade sales
*54
Sales of retail stores •
«
*
9,21,38
6,65,71
July '6B# Oet.
9,21,38,56 6,65,71,87 July '68$ Oct.
21,38,63 6,71,99
Dec. '68 Nov.
21,38
6,71
July '69 July
6,71
July '69 July
. 21
22,38
6,71
May '69
Feb.
22
6,71
July '69 July
22,38
6,71
May '69
'69
'69
'68
'68
'68
'69
'68
B3. Fixed Capital Investment
23,36
6,72
6,72
6,72
6,72
6,72
Apr. '68$
Mar. '68
Sep. '68 Sep.
6,72
6,72
6,73
6,73
6,73
Aug. '67
Sep. '68 Sep. '68
May '67
Apr. '69
May '68
June '68 Apr. '69
13
*6
8
*10.
New business incorporations
New orders durable goods industries. ....
Construction contracts total value
Contracts and orders, plant, equipment . .
11.
24.
9.
7.
*29.
New capital appropriations • manufacturing .
New orders, mach. and equip, industries .
Constr. contracts, com. and indus
Private nonfarm housing starts
New bldg. permits, private housing
96.
97.
*61.
69.
6,73
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries . 25
6,73
Backlog of capital approp., manufacturing • 25
7,73,79
Business expend., new plant and equip . . 25,39,40
Machinery and equipment sales and
25
7,73
business construction expenditures
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
245. Change in bus, inventories, all indus
23
23,36
23
.23,36
24
.24
24
24
24,36
Jan.
Sep.
Jan .
Sep.
'68
'68
' 69
'68
28,37
28,37,64
28,37
7,75
7,75
7,75
Apr. '69 Apr. '69
June '69 May '69
July '69 July '68
28
28
7,75
7,75
7,75
July '69 July '68
Mar. '69 Mar. '69
Nov. '68 Nov. '68
7,75
7,75,86
June '69
June '69
June '69
June '69
7,75
7,75
July '69
Dec. '68
July '68
Nov. '68
30,37
7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76
Oct.
Oct.
Mar.
Jan.
"69 Aug. '68
'69 Aug. '68
'69
;69 July '64
30
31
31
31
7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76
June
Mar.
Feb.
June
'69
'68
'69
'69
32
32
32
. . 32
7,77
7,77
7,77
7,77
Jan.
Apr.
June
Jan.
'68
'68
' 68
'68
7,77
8,77
8,77
8,77
8,77
Jan.
Jan.
Apr.
Jan.
Jan.
'68
'69
'69
'68
'68
July '64
6,78
Sep. '69
Nov. '68
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,78
Sep.
Jan.
Jan.
Sep.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Sep. '69
Nov. '68
Nov. '68
15. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
28,37
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities .... 29
29,55
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
29
29,39
66. Money and Credit
98. Change in money supply and time deposits
117
66
*72.
*67.
118.
••
' *
....
Sep. '68# Sep. '68*
7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
iid T 6
[^f|S • • • * • •
11R* P
t h ri elrfs
115 Treasury bond yields
Nov. '68
69 : Oct. '69
'68 Feb. '69
'68
'68 Sep. '68
'68
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
*23 Industrial materials prices
*19 Stock orices 500 common stocks
110 Total private borrowing
14 Liabilities of business failures
Sep, '68
Aug.
Dee.
Mar.
Sep.
Mar.
Vendor performance, slower deliveries . . .27
27
Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods
27,39
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories . . .
Book value, mfrs.' inven., finished goods . 27
*113. Change in consumer installment debt
Sep. '68
Aug. '67
Nov. '68
'68
Sep. '60
7,66,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
12,26
26,37
37. Purchased materials, higher inventories . . 26
20. Change in materials, supplies inventories . 26
26
26. Buying policy, production materials
32.
25.
*71.
65.
Sep. '68
30
30
30
32
Municipal bond yields
..
33
Consumer installment debt
.*
33,39
Com. and industrial loans outstanding , . .
33,39
Bank rates on short-term bus. loans
33
Mortgage yields, residential
Sep. '68
Feb. '69
Sep, '68
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64
June '69
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'68
'68f
'68
June '69
B7. Composite Indexes
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj . .34
811. 12 leading indicators, prior to reverse
trend adjustment . ,
34
820. 5 coincident indicators
34
830 6 lagging indicators
35
814.
815.
816
817
35
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing .... 35
35
Profitability
35
Sensitive financial flows
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
113
Series Finding Guide-Continued
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Tables
Charts
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date] (issue date)
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
420.
425,
430
435.
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
,
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS-Con.
Cl. Aggregate Series
81.
410,
412.
414.
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Bus. expend, new plant and equip
Manufacturers' sales total
Mfrs ' inventories book value
Condition of mfrs.' inventories ...»
25,39/0
73,79
41
41
41
41
79
79
79
79
Household income compared to year ago — 42
Probability of change, household income . . . 42
New cars ourchaseu bv households
* * 42
Index of consumer sentiment
42
79
79
79
79
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'69
'68
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
04. Price Movements
781, Consumer price index, all items. .
782 Consumer price index food
783 Consumer price index commodities
784 Consumer price index services .
•.
750.
58
751.
752.
Wholesale price index, all commodities . .
Wholesale price index mfd goods
Wholesale price index, proc. foods, feeds. .
Wholesale price index, farm products
54,62
tifm
54
54
54
tfii
B6
May '69
M:ty '69
Ma/ '69
May '69
May
May
Kay
Hay
V't>
JWIP '69
Junn
Juni1
Jun(>
.Trnit'
m»
. 55
29,55
55
55
«V/A
JWH
A
,*ti
JUi'H- 'Cj9
JWH> 'f»9
' b' J
<09
'69
'69
'69
'69
'tj^
'69
'69
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
C2. Diffusion Indexes
D440. New orders, manufacturing
D442, Net profits, manufacturing and trade
D444, Net sales, manufacturing and trade
0446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade
D450, Level of inventories, mfg. and trade
0460. Selling prices mfg. and trade
0464. Selling prices, wholesale trade
0466, Selling prices, retail trade
43
43
43
43
80
80
80
80
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
44
44
44
44
44
30
SO
80
BO
80
Feb.
Feb.
Fob.
Fob.
Feb.
45
45
45
D61. Bus, expend,, new plant and equip
0480. Freight carloadings
480. Change in freight carloadings
81
81
81
'69
'69
'69
Fob , ' 69
Feb.
Fob.
Feb.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl, Foreign Trode
500 Merchandise trade balance «
46
46
8,82
8,82
May '69
May '69
May '69
May '69
46
46
46
8,82
8,82
8,82
Aug.'GS//
Aug.
Apr.
506, Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
512 General imports • • « • • « •
»»
D2. Balance of Payments and Components
520, U.S. bal, of pmts., liquidity bat. basis
522. U,S, bal. of pmts., official settlements
.
47
530. Liquid liabilities to foreigners
532. Liquid and non liquid liabilities to foreign
official agencies
534 U S official reserve assets
252 Exoorts of soods and services
536 Merchandise exoorts adjusted
(i37
MprrhinrtiQp imnnrK iriiiKt(»H
'69
May '69
'68//
May '69
545 Pavments bv U S travelers abroad
549,
561,
560.
§65,
564.
570.
575.
Payments, transportation and services
U.S. direct investments abroad
Foreign direct investments in U.S
U.S, purchases of foreign securities
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
GovL grants and capital transactions
Banking and other capital transactions
Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg —
New orders durable goods industries
New capital appropriations mfg
Profits manufacturing
.
Stock prices 500 common stocks
Industrial materials prices
Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance. .
8,83
July '69
July '69
May '69
May '69
D41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls
47
13,47
83
83
July '69
July '69
May '69
May '69
D58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
D54. Sales of retail stores
«...
48
33
July '69
May '69
48
48
13,49
13,49
83
83
83
03
July
July
July
July
May
May
May
May
49
49
83
83
July '69
July '69
May '69
May '69
49
83
July '69
May '69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
t t f t . '69
f,7
1
,^V
56
56
•VM
f
V?
fuly '(>V
nay T/)
57
8,f I*
tVi,. 'CiP
rep. 'OB
57
#,PM
PIV. 'Git
%w. ' C H
SB
rt , rj '
July 'fiM
July U)R
58
58
58
a/^
a,«u
«,nn
Mir. 'b9
A.UI% r 6 £ J
Awjt. U)M
,Tun^ '(»8
June H\l
58
58
K ,n}
rt,w
Au% '(><)
1'Vb. 'i»H
r
r
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
60
60
60
60
M <?
firj\,;.
<v*
J 'V.
M'f.
'*y
1
fat*.
'<>Y
'b4
<K) <n
oyn
"Vv. ' * i
«r,«H
90/H
'ty*
'f)M
M'ly '69
Apr. '69
4/J
Juno U)**
{
'U/*'*
IJIH'.
91,9V
^lov. *( J
*u,%
Jxinr 'J)rt
'N ,
tVt.
AI*\
Apr.
dpr.
90
Kcb. '69
'flM
.Hmr ' t i *
.Turn- M/J
E5* Rates of Change
205.
820.
48.
54
GNP in constant dollars
Composite index of 5 coincident indicators.
Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
Sales of retail stores . . .
.
55- Index of whsle. prices, indus. commodities
781. Index of consumer prices, all items
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
f l m . *W
iVji. 'M
ilcp. '6 ( *
Cvy. '69
r»p. 'fj'i
Up. "&)
tVp. *6M
»(*t. 'c.y
Nov.
'b,l
Au/% 'ti«#
July '()H
Nov. <t,rt
Jxmt 1 '69
May 'b^
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
49
50
50
83
84
84
July '69
July '69
July '69
May '69
May '69
May '69
50
30
50
50
50
50
84
84
84
84
84
84
July
July
July
July
July
July
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
May
May
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
51
51
51
51
51
51
84
84
84
84
84
04
July
July
July
July
July
July
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
May
May
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
14,53
S3
53
J3
53
53
8,85
a, 85
8,65
8,67,85
Tuly '69
July '69
July '69
Tuly'68//
8,85'
Jet. '69
Oct. '69
Sep. '68//
«,K5
8,85
Aug. '67//
8,85
8,85
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
114
Dl.
D6.
Dll
D34,
D19,
D23
05.
83
600. Fed, balance, nat'l income and prod. acct. . .52
601, Fed. receipts, nat'l income and prod, acct . . 52
602, fed. expend., nat'l income and prod. acct. . . 32
Defense Dept. obligations, total
Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products industries
New orders, defense products
Military contract awards in U.S
855, Ratio, nonagrtcultural job openings
unfii'ed to persons unemployed
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm .
856. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers . .
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. .
857. Vacancy rate total rental housing
May '69
D3. Federal Government Activities
616,
621.
647.
648,
625
853, Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer
goods ...... • ....
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
July '69
540. Investment income, military sales, and
541, Foreigners' investment income, military
expend and services imports. . ......
542 Income on U S investments abroad * .
543 income on foreign investments in U S
9,2L,JB/4 i ,rV/' <&< •Tuly'ft*'/
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing. . . 57
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade . 57
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
8,83
47
t}9§JS
207. GNP gap (potential less actual).
E3. Diffusion Indexes
525. Net capital movements, liquidity bal, basis. . 47
527, Net capital movements, official settlements
250 Balance on soods and services
El. Actual and Potential GNP
205. Actual GNP in 1958 dollars
206. Potential GNP in 1958 dollars
July '68//
July '68//
Tuly '68//
Oct.
'69
Sep.
'68//
F1. Consumer Price Indexes
781. United States
133. Canada
132. United Kingdom
135. West Germany.
136. France
138. Japan
137. Italy
54,62
1(1
63
62
62
62
62
62
98
')M
W
MS
'tf
»g
(
M'iy
tht.
i CVt.
Otst.
' Oct.
tvi.
OH,.
'ti'?
'nV
't»7
H>7
'07
u>?
u,v
May '69
F2. Industriol Production Indexes
47
123,
122,
126
125.
128.
121.
127.
United States
Canada
United Kingdom
France ...
West Germany
Japan
OECD European countries
Italy
F3. Stock Price Indexes
19. United States
143. Canada
*
142 United Kingdom
»
146. France
»
145. West Germany
,
148 Japan
. «•
147. Italy
21,38,63
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
28, i?,64
64
64
64
64
64
64
f 9
W
W
W
f
9J>
93
t).j
f
)9
ion
i no
100
A no
H'O
ito
HO
IVi*. ' I t f
^ ly UV
Nov.
'y^
:Jcv, 'f>v
%»v. u»v
,a«it^ u,1!
Apr,
'UV
Juno ' 6 !
Nov.
't*V
)c-i. u»V
'6V
'6V
•>!,. '0V
f)u1». '6V
i lot,. '6V
Oct. '67
a-t.
*>t.
May '69
Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the six sections, series are listed in numerical order.
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates
monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of the
month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The alphabetic-numeric delations following the series titles indicate all charts and tables in which the series may be found. See the
table of contents for chart and table titles and Series Finding Guide
for page numbers. The series in section B preceded by an asterisk
(*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, chart
B8. Unless otherwise indicated, all series which require seasonal
adjustment have been adjusted by their source.
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number and
are obtained from the same sources.
244. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential structures
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all industries (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4, B4)
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military giants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
253. Imports of goods and services (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A5, D2)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). -•
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A6)
A National Income and Product
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al, B2, B8, E5)
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics (Al, B2, B8, El, E5)
210. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al)
215. Per capita gross national product in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(Al)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau
of the Census
(Al)
220. National income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
222. Personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
225. Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
226. Per capita disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars
(Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A3)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958 dollars (Q). Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A3)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6, D3)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and services,
total (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6)
270. Final sales, durable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods (Q). --Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A?)
274. Final sales, nondurable goods (Q). •- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods (Q).. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
280. Compensation of employees (Q). -• Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A8)
282. Proprietors' income (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A8)
284. Rental income of persons (Q). --Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(A8)
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A8)
288. Net interest (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A8)
290. Gross saving -- private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
292. Personal saving (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A9)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods except
automobiles, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A3)
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
234. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
2%. Capital consumption allowances, corporate and noncorporate
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in
current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A3)
298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A9)
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
240. Gross private domestic investment, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
241. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable
equipment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
(A9)
MO. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and McGraw-Hill
. Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(B3, 68)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations(Q).--National Industrial Conference Board (B3.E3)
*12. Index of net business formation (M). -- Dun and Bradstreel,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3, B8)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(83)
14. Current liabilities of business; failures (An). •
street, Inc.
Dun and Brad(B6)
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q). -- Federal Trade Commission and Securities
and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B5)
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q) • Department of Commerce.
Office of Business Economics
(B5, B8)
*17. Index of price per unit of labor cost - ratio, index of
wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to
seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees
(sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(85, 88)
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M). - Standard and
Poor's Corporation
(B5, BB, E3, E4, F3)
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
the Census
(B4)
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate,
all industries (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B5)
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M). - Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5t 88, E3, E4)
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B3)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
B Cyclical Indicators
(84)
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).
Bureau of Labor Statistics
*5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, E3, E4)
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M). --Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
{B3, B8r-E3, E4)
7. New private nonfarm housing units started (M). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
8. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). -- McGrawHill Information Systems Company. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source,)
(B3)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and Industrial
buildings, floor space (M). -- McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(B3)
Department of Labor,
(Bl)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
4. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M). - Department
of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(81, 88)
26. Buying policy - production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M). - National
Association of Purchasing Management
(84)
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M). •- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8)
*31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (M). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(84, B8)
Continued on reverse
115
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 115)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower
deliveries (M). » Chicago Purchasing Agents Association
(B4)
33. Net change in mortgage debt held fay financial institutions
and life insurance companies (M). -• Institute of Life Insurance, Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal
National Mortgage Association, National Association of
Mutual Savings Banks, U.S. Savings and Loan League, and
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B6)
37. Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of purchased materials (M). -• National Association of Purchasing
Management; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B4)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and
over (EOM). -- American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(B6)
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment
survey (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl,
B8, E3, E4)
42. Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor- force survey (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M). •- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(Bl, B8)
*44, Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M). - Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(Bl, B8)
45 Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M). •- Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security(Bl)
46. Index of,help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M). -- National
Industrial Conference Board
(Bl)
*47 Index of industrial production (M). - Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(82, B8, E3, E4, E5, F2)
48. Man-hours in nonagr (cultural establishments (AW). --Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, E5)
49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM). •- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*52. Persona) income (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B2, 88, E5)
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M). — Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
*54. Sales of retail stores (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B2, B8, E3, E4, E5)
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M).- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, E5)
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales (M), - Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B2, B8)
57. Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q). - Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B2)
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, D4, E3, E4)
*61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
(83, 88, Cl, C2)
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value, all
manufacturing industries (EOM). — Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM). -* Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain
current figure
(B6)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
{BS, B8)
116
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations -• ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B5)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construe*
tion put in place) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)
*71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value (EOM). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
large commercial banks (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B6, B8)
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M). -- Board of Governors of tie Federal
Reserve System
(B6)
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM). -- Department o/ Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ). -National Industrial Conference Board
(B3)
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(86)
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M). -« Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjust
ment by Bureau of the Census
(B6)
*113.Net change in consumer installment debt (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6, B8)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M). -- Treasury Department
(B6)
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M). - First
National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department (B6)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M). • The Bond
Buyer
(B6)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M). - Department
of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(86)
*200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
*205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
245. Change in business inventories (GNP component) (Q). See
in section A.
810. Twelve leading indicators - reverse trend adjusted composite
index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31,
and 113) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
811. Twelve leading indicators -- composite index prior to reverse
trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19,
23, 29, 31, and 113) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B7)
813. Marginal employment adjustments - leading composite index
(includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(87)
814. Capital investment commitments - leading composite index
(includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) (M). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
815. Inventory investment and purchasing -- leading composite
index (includes series 23, 25t 31, and 37) (M). •• Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
816. Profitability -- leading composite index (includes series 16,
17, and 19) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B7)
817. Sensitive financial flows « lead ing composite index (includes
series 33, 85,112, and 113) (M). - Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(87)
820. Five coincident indicators -- composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B7, E5)
830. Six lagging indicators -- composite index (includes series 44,
61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(67)
C Anticipations and Intentions
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (Q). See in section B.
410. Manufacturers' sates, total value (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
412. Manufacturers' inventories, total book value (EOQ). - Department of Commarce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
414. Percent of total book value of inventories held by mwufachirers classifying fteir holdings as high, less percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Off ice
of Business Economics
(Cl)
416. Percent of total gross capita) assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective
operations over the next 12 months, less percent classifying
existing capacity as excessive'(EOQ)." Department of Commerce, Office d Business Economics
(Cl)
420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago
(percent higher, tower, and unchanged) (Q). - Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
425. Wean probability (iwerage chances in 100) of substantial
changes (increase, decrease, and increase less decrease) In
income of households (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Cl)
430. Number of new <;ars purchased by households (Q).-- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
435. Index of consumer sentiment (Q). -• University of Michigan,
Survey Research Center
(Cl)
D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0444. Net sales, manuJactuing and trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from) the source.) (C2)
0460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. .(Used by peimission This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0480. Freight car loading! (Q), -- Association of American Railroads
(C2)
480. Change in freight earnings (Q).
railroads
Association of American
(C2)
D Other Key Indicators
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M).
section B.
See in
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military pants: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -• See in
section A.
252. Exports of goods and set vices, excluding transfers under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q). - See in section
A.
253. Imports of goods and s«vices: U.S. balance of payment!
(Q).--See in section A.
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- See in section A.
500. Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series 512) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
502. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M). •• Department of Commerce, Bureau d the Census
(01)
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 116)
506. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(01)
508. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M). McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
512. General imports, total (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Dl)
520. U.S. balance of payments on liquidity balance basis (change in
U.S. official reserve assets and change in liquid liabilities to
all foreigners) (Q). *- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(02)
522. U.S. balance of payments on official settlements basis (change
in U.S. official reserve assets, and change in liquid and
certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign monetary official
agencies) (Q). -r Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)^
525. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers -- except
military grants -• and errors and omissions) on liquidity
balance basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
527. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers •- except
military grants - and errors and omissions) on official settlements basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). - Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
530. Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all foreigners,
total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)°
532. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding military
grants) to foreign official agencies, total outstanding: U.S.
balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(D2)
534. U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ), -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
540. U.S. .investment income, military sales, and other services
exports, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
541. Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures and other
services imports: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). •• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
546. Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
548. Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
549. Payments for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
560. Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
561. U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (series
292 divided by series 224) (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(E2)
565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (series 49) to
number of persons unemployed (M). -• Department of Labor,
Bureau of Employment Security and Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (E2)
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
600. Federal Government surplus or deficit, national income and
product accounts (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D3)
601. Federal Government receipts, national income and product
accounts (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D3)
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
856. Real average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing, 1957-59 dollars (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(E2)
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing -- unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
858. Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm (Q). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents) on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1957-59 dollars (M). •- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
(03)
616. Defense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding
military assistance (HI). -- Department of Defense, Fiscal
Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)
621. Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M). -Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(D3)
625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M). -- Department of Defense, Directorate for
Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)
647. New orders, defense products industries (M). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)
648. New orders, defense products (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(03)
750. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M). - Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
751. Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
752. Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M). - Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number
and are obtained from the same sources. See section B for titles
and sources of Dl, D5, D6, Dll, 1)19, D23, D41, D47, D54, D58, D61,
and section C for D440, D442, D444, D446, D450, D460, D462, D464,
D466, and D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q). - First National City Bank
of New York; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)
F International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).
See in section B.
47. United States, index of industrial production (M). See in
section B.
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M). -Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
(F2)
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M) -- Central
Statistical Office (London)
(F2)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M). -• Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F2)
781. Index of consumer prices (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics.
(D4, E5, Fl)
782. Index of consumer prices, food (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
783. Index of consumer prices, commodities less food (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M). - Stattstisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal adjustment by
OECD
(F2)
126. France, index of industrial production (M). -• Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F2)
784. Index of consumer prices, services (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M). - Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(F2)
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M). • • Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)
E Analytical Measures
47. Index of industrial production (M), See in section B.
48. Man-hours in nonagr(cultural establishments (M). See in section B.
52. Persona) income (M). See in section B.
54. Sales of retail stores (TV)). See in section B.
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M). See in
section B.
200. GNP in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
206. Potential level of gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
207. Gap -- the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual GNP
(Series205) (Q).--Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
781. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).
See in section D.
820. Five coincident indicators -- composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B.
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q). - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce,
and McGraw-Hill Economics Department
(E2)
851. Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56), manufacturing and trade total (EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(E2)
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods (EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal
Reserve index of industrial production.)
(E2)
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M). -- Ministry of
Labour (London)
(Fl)
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M). • Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(Fl)
135. West Germany,, index of consumer prices (M). -- Statistisches
Bundesamt(Wiesbaden)
(Fl)
136. France, index of consumer prices (M). -- In si tut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(Fl)
137, Italy, index of consumer prices (M). -• Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(Fl)
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M). -- Office of the Prime
Minister (Tokyo)
(Fl)
142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M). • The Financial
Times(London)
(F3)
143. Canada, index of stock prices (M). •- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)
145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M). -- Statistisches
Bundesamt(Wiesbaden)
(F3)
146. France, index of stock prices (M). -- Institut National de la
Statistique etdes Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)
147. Italy, index of stock prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di Statistica(Rome)
(F3)
148. Japan, index of stock prices (M). -- Tokyo Stock Exchange
(Tokyo)
(F3)
781. United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in section D.
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