Full text of Business Conditions Digest : November 1966
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
John T. Connor, Secretary
William H. Shaw, Asst. Secy., Economic Affairs
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BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Howard C. Grieves, Deputy Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
PREFACE
This report brings together many of the available
economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation.
The presentation and classification of series follow the business indicators
approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning dates
are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER) which, in recent years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken as implying acceptance
or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle analysis. It is intended
only to supplement other reports of the Department of Commerce that
provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data according to their
usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle and the inclusion of special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons
that help in evaluating the current stage of the business cycle. In addition the movements of the series are shown against the background of the
expansions and contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads"
and "lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments
spotted.
About 90 principal series and over 300 components are included
in preparing the report. The exact number of series included for the total
and important classes of series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the basic data are available in published reports. A complete
list of series and the sources of data is shown on the back cover of this
report. Series are seasonally adjusted except those that do not appear
to contain seasonal movement.
The chief merits of this report are the speed with which the data
are collected, assembled, and published and the arrangement of the series
for business cycle studies. Publication is scheduled for around the 22d of
the month following the month of data.
November 1966
DATA THROUGH OCTOBER
Series ESI No. 66-11
New Features and Changes for This Issue
3 Census Projects on Economic Fluctuations
iii
iv
©©©FG[o)
Introduction
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 and 2
__
1
1
2
2
2
3
4
5
6
E
TABLE 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
CHART L Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
TABLE 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
8
10
24
7flfl(t
TABLE
CHART
TABLE
TABLE
3.
2.
4.
5.
Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods __
Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components
ABOUT THE COVER—
Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and
shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general
business activity. The cover design illustrates this concept. The black vertical
bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually
fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle
curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period;
the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has
begun and rise after it ends.
38
39
42
46
CONT/Nl/ED
CHART 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles
________________________
TABLE 6. Comparisons From Reference Peak Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
______________________________________
TABLE 7. Comparisons From Reference Trough Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
____________________________________
58
62
63
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the
United States: 1854 to 1961 _________________________ 65
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected
Business Indicators ________________________________ 66
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business
Cycle Series
______________________________________
67
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series ______________ _
____________________________
70
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction
and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles:
1920 to 1961 ____________________________________ 71
Appendix R Historical Data for Selected Series _____________________ 72
Series Finding Guide
75
u
.D A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.
Changes in this issue are as follows:
1. The series on labor cost per unit of output in manufacturing (series 62)
has been revised from 1948 to date. This revision reflects the following:
(a) A change in the method of computing the seasonally adjusted data
(Formerly seasonal adjustment factors were applied to the ratio of the
seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees in manufacturing to
the unadjusted index of industrial production, manufacturing. Under the
present method, seasonally adjusted data—supplied by source agencies—are
used for both components to yield the seasonally adjusted ratio. Recently
completed tests show that these alternative methods give very similar
results.);
(b) The incorporation of revised wages and salaries data (including
supplements) for the period 1963 through 1965 (see item 1, page iii, of the
July 1966 issue);
(c) The incorporation of revised data on index of industrial production
from 1964 to date (see item 3, below); and
(d) The adoption, by the BCD staff, of a new method of estimating current
monthly data on supplements to wages and salaries in manufacturing. This
method takes fuller account of the increase in Social Security taxes which
became effective at the beginning of 1966 and affects the level of the
series for the period beginning with January of this year.
2. The series on price per unit of labor cost in manufacturing (series 17)
has been revised from 1948 to date to reflect the use of seasonally adjusted
components to obtain the seasonally adjusted ratio. The manufacturing wholesale
price component is seasonally adjusted by the Census Bureau using the X-ll
Variant of Census Seasonal Adjustment Method II. (See item 1, above.)
3. Series 47 and D47 on index of industrial production have been revised
from January 1964 to date to reflect the source agency's annual updating and
seasonal adjustment of these data. This revision is also reflected in revised
data for series 17 and 62. (See items 1 and 2, above.) Further information
concerning this revision may be obtained from the Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System, Business Conditions Section.
4. Series 31 on change in manufacturing and trade inventories has been
revised for the period 1959 to date to reflect (a) adjustment of the earlier
data (1959 to 1965) for the wholesale segment to the level of data obtained
from the new sample initiated in January 1966; and (b) the adoption of a new
benchmark (1965) for the retail segment affecting data for 1965 to date.
5. Data on U.S. exports and imports (series 86, 87, and 88) have been
revised because of a new seasonal and working day adjustment and to incorporate
corrections which have come to light since December 1964« Further information
concerning these revisions may be obtained from the Bureau of the Census,
Foreign Trade Division.
6. Average changes and related measures have been recomputed for series 17,
31, 62, 85, 98, 110, and 111 to take into account recent revisions in the data.
(See appendix C.)
7. Appendix F includes revised historical data for series 17, 31, 62, 85,
86, 87, 88, 98, 110, and 111.
"The December issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is scheduled for release on
December 22.
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A time series computer
program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and
irregular fluctuations and the relations among them. This program is
particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which take place
within a year.
The latest variant, X-ll, has greater generality and scope than any of the
earlier programs. It can adjust quarterly as well as monthly series and series
with negative and positive numbers as well as those with positive numbers
alone. The X-ll version measures and adjusts not only for seasonal variations, but also for trading-day variations Further, it computes many summary
and analytical measures of the behavior of each series. The program includes
various techniques, such as F tests and variance analysis, for use in extending
the scope of time series studies and is written in a simplified computer language—Fortran IV. The program deck can be purchased from the Census
Bureau at cost.
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Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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iySOC^liS CYCdl PiVi(L©IP^iOTS0 A monthly report for analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short span of years.
This report brings together several hundred monthly and quarterly "economic indicator" series for the analysis of short-term economic trends and
prospects. These series have been selected, tested, and evaluated, after half
a century of continuing research, as the most useful and reliable for this
purpose. The publication provides not only the basic data, but also various
charts and analytical tables to facilitate such studies, In addition, a time
series punch-card file, a diffusion index program, and a separate summarymeasures computer program are available for those who wish to carry on
further research in business cycle analysis.
TTiM i©Q)^©M€ @[3©OT[HL An annual report for the study of
economic fluctuations over a long span of years.
This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy. It has been planned,
prepared, and published as a basic research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical
basis for a study of long-term economic trends It is a unique presentation
of the full range of factors required for an understanding 'of our country's
economic development. Some of the statistical series go back to 1860.
IV
Students of economic conditions describe the business
cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion
and contraction in production, employment, income,
money flows, prices, and other economic processes.
The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but
not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway,
it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry,
from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is
reached. Even while expansion is widespread during
the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities
continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines
begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and
continue to spread even faster after the peak has been
passed. But some activities continue to expand during
the general contraction. Before long these expansions
become stronger and more widespread. When they
begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate
activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway.
This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic.
The causal relations among these various economic
>rocesses are primarily responsible for the cumulative
lature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion
eventually turns into recession and recession into ex>ansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and em>loyment are preceded by fluctuations in measures
vhich relate to future rather than to current producion—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
he formation of new business enterprises, and accesions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
i various types of economic costs, such as labor costs,
ttterest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments,
nd holdings of inventories and of debts.
tivity. The series have been grouped and classified
by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or
"lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as
follows:
O
NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually
reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate
economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these
series pertains to activities in the labor market,
another to orders and contracts, and so on.
r>
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series
that are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial
production, and retail sales.
C>
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning
points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are
included in this report. Some of these series, such as
change in money supply, merchandise trade balance,
and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors
in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators
for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the
United States are presented.
The list of series covered and sources of the basic
data are shown on the back cover of this report. Series
numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Although this pattern has been characteristic of
American economic history, today many economists
,o not consider it inevitable.
Intensive research by the National Bureau of EcoDinic Research (NBER) over many years has provided
• list of those significant series that usually lead, those
lat usually move with, and those that usually lag
phind cyclical movements in aggregate economic ac-
Data are shown in this report in three general categories,
as follows:
O
Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2).—Data
are shown for business cycle indicators, additional
U.S. series with business cycle significance, and
industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for
making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
>
Analytical Measures (chart2and tables 3 to 5).—
These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, determining the extent of current
changes in different parts of the economy, and
pointing to developments in particular industries
and places.
O
Cyclical Patterns (chart 3 and tables 6 and 7).—
Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at
corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending
upon the phase of the business cycle,
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular
report, certain appendix materials are presented. These
materials include historical data, key information, and
adjustment factors.
The business cycle turning dates used in this report are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred.
Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been
dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over
this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the
time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are
disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the
time and contraction, 44 percent.
Adjustments for normal seasonal fluctuations are often
necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical trends
of a series. Such adjustments allow for periodic intrayear variations resulting chiefly from normal differences
in weather conditions during the year and from various institutional arrangements. Some series contain
considerable variation attributable to the number of
working or trading days in each month. An additional
adjustment is necessary in such cases to reduce this
variation. Variations due to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; how-
ever, there are some cases in which a separate holiday
adjustment is necessary for holidays with variable dates.
Such a case is retail sales of apparel which is affected
strongly by the date of Easter and, to a lesser degree, by
the dates of Labor Day and Thanksgiving.
In general, the seasonal adjustment process is designed to adjust for average weather conditions but
not for the dispersion about that average. Thus, some
seasonally adjusted series, such as housing starts, will
tend to be low in months of unusually bad weather and
high during unusually good weather. At the Bureau
of the Census, studies have been started on some series
to determine the effects of abnormal weather. Although it eventually may be possible, Census methods
do not at present make any adjustments for such
variations.
Most of the series contained in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form. Unadjusted data
are used only for those series which appear to have no
pattern of seasonal variation. (Unadjusted series are
identified in table 2.) In most cases, the seasonally
adjusted data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency; therefore, several different methods of seasonal adjustment are involved.
In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle
studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a
seasonally adjusted basis in this report. For these
series, seasonal adjustments have been developed by
either the NBER or the Census Bureau. The adjustment factors for these series, derived by Census Method
II, are shown in appendix D. Factors for series which
are the sums of seasonally adjusted components or
which are based on unpublished source data are nut
shown.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually j
longer than a single month because month-to-month
changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but
shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change
from the same month a year ago), and is different for
different series (see appendix C for .MCD values and|
method of computation).
MCD is, on average, the first span of months for
which the average change for the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so.
It is small for smooth series and large for irregular
series. The month-to-month differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are com
mensurate with the differences between seasonally
adjusted values separated by the same MCD span;
thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month
moving average are commensurate with differences in
seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD
moving averages all have about the same degree of
smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of
highly irregular series, such as business failures and
Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data
for such smooth series as industrial production.
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all
series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an
indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted beginning
with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful
moving averages (such as the weighted 13-term Henderson curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a
smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and
troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a
reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually
larger than those computed from historical series and
shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a
fairly long period, one covering both expansions and
contractions. Since the pace of change varies from
phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will
not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which
to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery when
expansion has usually been rapid and too low during
the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance
has usually been small. This limitation should be borne
in mind when making use of this measure.1
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented—timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of
change. These measures aid in forming a judgment of
rhe current changes compared to previous changes, the
mminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
:he extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also point to developments in partitular industries and places.
1
For a more complete description of MCD and its use in
Jtudying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators,
beoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Reearch, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic
:
orecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press:
961).
Timing Distributions
Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful
in appraising the evidence for a prospective business
cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table
3). Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented
during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the
distribution of current highs, such distributions are
also shown for leading and coincident series as they
appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of
each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and
at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the leading and roughly
coincident business cycle indicators are scanned each
month. During a business cycle expansion, the date of
the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted
series—that is, series with negative conformity to the
business cycle—dates of low values are taken.) If the
values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date
is taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values may be disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly
for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and
highlight the current high values during the expansion.
The highs designated during the current cyclical phase
will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. (See
appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead.
Comparisons of the current timing distributions with
those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks
are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective
business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be made
in light of the fact that a contraction following a high
value reached several months ago may be the result
of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be
reached in some future month. In short, when the
percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both
the leading and roughly coincident series, this does
not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has
occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a
short reversal in the upward movement.
Diffusion Indexes
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of
groups of economic series. They express, for a given
aggregate serisv the percent of the series components
which have risen over given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the
aggregate and they measure how widespread a business
change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all
components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often associated with
rapid growth and widespread declines with sharp reductions in aggregate activity.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February, February-March,
etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans,
depending upon the irregularity of the series. The
indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current"
but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9month indexes. (See chart 2.) Quarterly series are
compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and
4-quarter spans.
Recent research has shown that the longer-span
diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have
systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements may^ be significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the
longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is
an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the
span; for example, 3 months in the case of a 6-month
diffusion index. However, the most recent figure for
a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest
available information on changes over that span. If a
significant reversal has taken place within that span,
the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presentation of both 1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes
provides an opportunity for the user to take advantage
of the best features of each in interpreting current
changes.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate
diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series,
it means that the diffusion index has been computed
from components of the indicator series; for example,
the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from
components of series 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new
numbers.
Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises
(or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag
in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion-Index Components
Many of the component series used to make up the
diffusion indexes are shown in table 5. Where possible,
recent basic data for the components are shown in
part A. In part B, directions of change in these
components are indicated for consecutive months and,
depending upon the irregularity of the diffusion index,
for either 6- or 9-month spans. The directions of
change are indicated by " + " for rising, "o" for unchanged, and "—" for falling. (In counting the number of components rising, a "o" is counted as onehalf.)
This table provides a convenient view of changing
business conditions and is helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it
shows which economic activities went up, which went
down, and how long such movements have persisted.
The table also helps to show how a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to
another.
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the
behavior of the various series in the current business
cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisions are made in different ways depending upon
whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or
contraction.
Expansions are compared in one way by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels.
In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month
in the current expansion (shown by number of months
from the February 1961 trough) are compared with
the May 1960 reference peak. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of
months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the preceding reference peak. This type
of comparison is designated as changes computed
from reference peak levels and reference trough dates.
This type of comparison shows whether, and by how
much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls
short of the level at the preceding business cycle
peak, and how the current situation compares, in this
respect, with earlier expansions. For those earlier
periods of expansion that were shorter than the current
one, the comparisons reflect the status at a point after
a new contraction had set in.
Expansions are also compared by computing changes
^rom reference trough levels and reference trough dates
(table 7). For the current expansion, this type of
;omparison measures the extent of the rise from the
rough level (February 1961) to the level at the cur•ent month. For each earlier expansion, data for a
ike period (same number of months from the trough of
he expansion) are compared with the level at the
rough. The same situation exists here as for the
;omparisons shown in table 6: For earlier expansions
hat were shorter than the current one, the comparisons
ihow the status at a point after a new contraction had
>et in.
Contractions can be compared by computing changes
)ver the span from the most recent business cycle peak
o the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is
lesignated as changes from reference peak levels and
•eference peak dates. These comparisons will be made
luring a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on the
>asis of reference dates, which are the same for all
eries, similar comparisons may be made using the
pecific peak and trough dates identified for each series.
Appendix B lists specific dates for a selected group
)f series.) Such comparisons would be based on
ihanges from specific peak levels and specific trough
tates and on changes from specific trough levels and
pecific trough dates. Although these specific cycle
;omparisons are not currently included in this report,
hey have been shown in previous issues.
Nearly all series have undergone changes in definiion, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919;
herefore, the historical comparisons are to be conlidered only approximate. Furthermore, it is somemes necessary to use data for a closely related series
or cycles prior to the period covered by the series
sed currently. The principal substitutions of this
ype are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1948: Residential building contracts,
floor space, by F. W. Dodge Corp.)
1. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Factory employment)
2. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data
as published by Barger and Klein)
k Sales of retail stores (prior to 1929: Department
store sales)
_Z. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1948: Production worker
wage cost per unit).
Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical
patterns of the business cycle series: Historical time
series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series
(charts 1 and 2)
These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the
background of expansions and contractions in general
business activity from 1948 to the current month.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak
dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle
trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for
a new contraction will be entered only after a trough
has been designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used
to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series.
The scale selected for each series is identified in the
margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series
can be compared with each other only where scales are
identical. See the diagram, page 6, for additional help
in using these charts.
Cyclical Comparisons
(chart 3)
This chart compares the movements of selected series
during the current business cycle with their movements
through the corresponding phases of previous business
cycles. Actually, it is an extension of the concept behind table 6. While table 6 makes a comparison at
one point in time, chart 3 shows these comparisons
over the course of the whole business cycle. These
comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the
current expansion relative to behavior during the expansions of earlier cycles.
Instead of following the usual date sequence, as in
charts 1 and 2, the data in this chart are alined according to the strategic points of the business cycle.
Each of the included series is separated into four segments which encompass the three complete business
cycles since 1948 and the current expansion. These
segments are alined so that the trough dates all fall at
the same point on the horizontal scale and so that the
levels of'the preceding peaks all fall at the same point
on the vertical scale.
A similar chart, based on specific cycle dates, was
previously included in this report but has been discontinued for the present.
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.
CHART 1 — Business Cycle Series
See back cover for complete titles
and sources of series.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by
NBER,
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("12" = December)
Solid line indicates monthly data, v
(Data may be actual monthly fig- >^
ures or MCD moving averages.*)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
("II" m second quarter)
Broken Mne indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average * is plotted.
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.)
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale LT' is a logarithmic
scale with 1 cycle in a given distance,
"s';ale L'2" is a logarithmic scale
with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
The scales should be carefully noted
because they show whether or not
the plotted lines for various series
are directly comparable.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans,
Arabic number indicates .latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("12"™
December)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted P/2, 2, or
2Vz months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCO moving averages.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("111" =
third quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.
Section ONE
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive employment and unemployment
New investment commitments
New businesses and business failures
Profits and stock prices
Inventory investment, buying policyf and sensitive prices
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production
Income and trade
Wholesale prices
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment expenditures
Cost per unit of output
Inventories
Debt
Interest rates
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Federal budget and military commitments
Reserves, money supply, and financing
Interest rates
Foreign trade
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries
TABLE
^^
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1966
bed
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unitof
measure
July
1966
August
September
1966
October
1966
3
Oct. '65 Oct. '65 1953 to
to date to date
1965
(without (without
(with
sign)s
sign)5 6
sign)*
Current percent change3
July
to
Aug.
1966
Aug.
to
Sept.
1966
Sept.
to
Oct.
1966
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg ....
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries
3 Layoff rate, manufacturing
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
Hours
Per 100 empl . .
Thous
Per 100 empl . .
Thous
6. New orders, durable goods indus ......
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus ....
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial
10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip
11. New capital appropriations, mfg7. .....
Bit. dol
..... do
Mil. sq. ft
floor space ..
Bil.dol
do
Ann. rate,
thous
1957-59-100..
do
Number
Mil. dol
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
29. New bldg. permits, private housing
38 Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures
15. Large business failures
16 Corporate profits after taxes7.
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
18 Profits per dol. of sales mfg 7
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries 7
do
41.0
0.0
+0.7
-0.1
-1.2
-2.8
+1.0
0.5
4.6 +10.9
+0.2
-7.8
1.8
+0.2
-6.3
8.8 +41.2 -20.0
17.1 +13.0 +12.0
41.4
r5.1
543
1.0
100
230
196
183
184
+0.6
6.8
5.0 +14.8
+6.6
-0.5
24.37
5.09
r23.51
r25.21
+0.6
4.81
i4.91
p24.06
p4.76
+1.0
2.6
3.2
3.8
4.2
-3.5
-5.5
+7.2
+2.1
-4.6
-3.1
63.07
6.10
61.79
66.38
p6.28
(NA)
(NA)
+1.2
+2.0
-0.9
6.6
4.1
9.2
9.3
4.7
10,4
-2.0
-3.8
-15.0
+7.4
+7.0
(NA)
(NA)
-3.5
-4.3
-0.2
-0.6
-12.4
10.2
5.9
1.1
2.4
34.7
7.2
3.7
0.8
2.5
18.7
-3.9
9.1
12.3
-3.6 -21.0
+1.5
-2.0
-8.4 -13.2
(NA)
-1.6
-2.3
-2.8
(NA)
-4.1
+10.3
-157.4 +15.8
-19.0
+6.0
-8.5
2.0
0.4
3.8
5.6
0.5
6.0
-0.8
-0.1
-1.1
1,068
81.3
105.9
16,688
62.84
42
No. per week . .
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
1957-59=100.. rl05.8
Cents
Percent
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks* . . . 1941-43-10
21. Change in business inventories, all
Ann. rate,
industries7 B
bil. dol
31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories8
do
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inven8
tories of materials and supplies
... do
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Percent. . . .
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitdo
ments 60 days or longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
do...
slower deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable
Bil. dol
goods industries8
1957-59-100
23 Industrial materials prices*
r41.5
P4.7
509
pi. 2
88
4.6
542
1.7
115
r5.87
p6.04
rl,084
74.5
103.5
'
rl,045
r64.7
101.8
16,224
161.75
15,564
136.24
50
47
P48.3
r!05.7
P41-3
(NA)
P533
(NA)
85
p826
p63.4
(NA)
(NA)
122.23
51
P103.9
+1.5
0.0
-1.0
-1.3
1.3
4.2
-2.3
77.81
77.13
-1.4
2.3
2.5
-6.0
-0.2
2.4
2.3
-2.4
P9.2
80.65
12.8
17.8
r!04.8
p!2.8
85.84
0.3
6.3
4.3
iH-9.9
-0.5
(NA)
+4.7
(NA)
+3.4
-0.9
-0.9
-3.5
-0.9
14-13.6
r+15.9
1*8.3
(NA)
+0.2
4.4
3.7
+2.3
-7.6
(NA)
+1.1
rn-5.4
P+-2.2
(NA)
+0.1
1.6
1.5
+4.3
-3.2
(NA)
60
61
55
58
+2.4
6.0
6.5
+1.7
-9.8
+5.5
73
73
72
75
+1.5
2.0
5.3
0.0
-1.4
+4.2
70
73
72
70
+1.5
5.7
7.5
-1.4
-2.8
r+2.32
p+0.59
106.3
-0.06
-0.6
0.54
1.9
0.48
1.3
p64,351
70,192
3.8
3.9
1.9
1.9
+0.4
+0.3
+0.7
+0.7
0.4
0.4
3.0
3.4
0.3
0.4
3.9
5.4
2.1
2.1
2.4
2.4
186
1957-59-100
189
189
p!93
do
rl58.2
157.2
r!58.1 pl53.6
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
r649.3
do,. .
49 GNP in current dollars7
r744.6
7
57 Final sales
. do
r734.6
do
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
3,508.5 3,473.8 3,516.6 p3, 487.1
580.0
52 Personal income
do
585.4 r590.0
P594.6
r!58.0
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr . . .
157.1
do.....
155.4
P158.9
54. Sal es of retail stores
25,362 r25,572 r25,656 p25,66?
Mil. dol
55. Wholesale prices, except farm products
and foods
1957-59-100..
105.3
r!05.4 P105.2
105.3
+1.8
4.2
4.2
+1.2
+0.7
2.8
0.7
3.0
1.0
+1.6
+0.6
0.0
-0.1
+2.1
+0.3
+0.9
+1.9
+1.9
+1.1
+0.7
+0.8
+0.5
0.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
0.7
0.8
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.6
0.5
0.8
1.0
+0.9
+1.7
+2.0
-1.0
+0.9
+1.1
+0.8
+1.2
+0.8
+0.6
+0.3
-O.E,
+0.8
+0.6
0.0'
+0.2
0.2
0,2
0.0
+0.1
-0.2
41.
42.
43.
40.
45.
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Employees in nonagri. establishments . . Thous
Total nonagricultural employment
do.. .
Unemployment rate, total
Percent
do
Unemployment rate, married males
Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate,
State
•
do.. .
46. Help- wanted advertising
47. Industrial production
50. GNP in 1958 dollars 7
+1.34
118.8
r+0 . 64
111.7
64,072
69,928
r64,199
70,180
3.9
2.0
3.9
2.0
108.9
r64,159
70,116
+4.3
-0.70 +1.68
-6.0
-2.5
+0.2
+0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
+2.6
+5.0
0.0 +12.5
-1.73
-2.4
+0.3
+0.1
-2.6
0.0
0.0
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7966
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
July
1966
August
1966
September
1966
a6l.60
rlOO.7
rlOl.5
October
1966
Oct. '65 Oct. '65
to date to date
(with 4 (without5
sign)
sign)
3
Current percent change3
1953 to
1965
(without
sign?*
July
to
Aug.
1966
Aug.
to
Sept.
1966
Sept.
to
Oct.
1966
+0.8
+0.6
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
51. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment 7.
52. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
58. Labor 7cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP
54- Book value of mfrs.' inventories
55. Book value of mfrs.' inventories of
finished goods
>6, Consumer installment debt
57. Bank rates on short-term business
loans*
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
1957-59-100..
... do
Bil. dol
do
Mil. dol
r 100.1
+3.6
3.6
+0.2
0.4
3.2
0.5
'+2.5
p!02.1
p74.8
(NA)
+1.3
+1.1
1.3
1.1
0.8
0.5
+i;o
74.1
+1.5
+0.9
(NA)
24.7
P24.9
72,321
(NA)
(NA)
+0.8
+0.8
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.8
+0.8
+0.8
+0.8
+0.7
(NA)
(NA)
+6.1
6.1
2.0
P109.5
73.0
24.5
71,244
+0.6
71,846
Percent
6.30
+8.2
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
12 Federal cash payments to public
13. Federal cash receipts from public .
14. Federal cash surplus or deficit 8
15. Balance, Federal
income and product
account 7 8
10 Defense Dept oblig procurement
11
12
19.
>3.
15
Defense Dept. obligations total
Military contract awards in U S
New orders, defense
products
Free reserves*8
Change in money supply
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
do
3.
\
5
5
f
-9.5
do
154.2
127.7
-26.5
162.0
153.5
P145.4
PU9.9
-8.5
+72.0. -21.7
+4.5
+5.2
+2.1
16.4
18.9
17.8
13.9
24.5
22.5
+44.4
-39.4
4,998
4,694
7,215
2,845
r3.l6
r-390
6,579
3,407
r4.66
r-398
(NA)
(NA)
P3.20
p-428
1957-59-100 . .
do
Bil. dol
...'.. do
+13.0
27.4
do
do
Bil. dol
Mil. dol
Ann. rate,
percent. ....
i. Consumer prices
\ Construction contracts value
i. Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus
r. Backlog of capital appro., mfg.9
-10.2
36.9
(NA)
do
Mil. dol
do
do
+5.1
+20.2
+18.0
+0.2
+8.9
P+-0.3
1,990
1 Mortgage yields *
J. Exports, excluding military aid
' General imports
J Merchandise trade balance7 8 8
I. U.S. balance of payments :
a. Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis
-6.1
-17.5
-17.0
PU.5
2441
do
Ann. rate,
mil. dol.....
do.
Corporate gross savings 78
Change business loans
Ann. rate,
bil. dol.....
do
Change, consumer installment debt 8 . . .
Treasury bill rate*
Percent. .....
do
Treasury bond yields *
do
Corporate bond yields*
do
Municipal bond yields*
4.4
3.9
4.3
11.0
11.6
24.0
1,477
3.50
-358
+2.0
+3.3
+1.3
Mil dol
18. Change in 3money supply and time
deposits
10 Total private borrowing 7
LI
12
164.3
154.8
-24
2.5
48
2.5
98
-2.3
-3.5
-9.7
-32
-8.8
+19.8
+47.5
-8
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-31.3
-30
-10.56
0.00
r+6.36
p-6.36
-1.20
9.00
3.15
hLO. 56
+6.36 -12.72
+0.36
+5.16
r+4.80
p-4.44
-1.42
5.48
2.56
+4.80
-0.36
-9.24
-3.0
+1.6
12.2
10.7
-20.3
Pf5.57
(NA)
5.39
4.70
6.04
3.94
+0.02
-0.16
6.20
0.81
-6.55
-1.52
+8.63
. (NA)
2,621.1
2,260.2
+360 .9
+1.7
+1.1
+1.6
-8.0
p 59, 896
p59,056
+6.77
+3.49
+7.22
-3.06
+5.70
4.86
4.75
5.81
3.95
4.93
4.80
6.04
4.12
5.36
4.79
6.14
4.12
(NA)
6.51 •
2,460.5
2,206.8
+253.7
do
do
6.58
2,460.5
2,148.1
+312.4
6.63
2,579.8
2,310.5
+269.3
113.8
139
r73.29
+0 . 8 •
+2.1
+1.3
+38
p-217
P+-993
113.1
147
72.65
+2.5
+717
114.1
146
r75.6l
p22.37
(HA)
(NA)
p76.20
+0.3
0.0
+1.9
+4.8
1.6
4.1
1.39
0.87
+2.2
(NA)
+0.45
(NA)
+0.6
-1.9
-1.6
-4.4
3.1
1.4
2.4
2.8
6.7
1.6
1.6
2.5
+1.4
+1.1
+4.0
+4.3
+8.7
-0.2
+1.7
1.7
4.0
3.6
0.1
3.8
3.0
+1.1
-2.7
+0.8
+4.8
+7.6
(NA)
+1.6
-2.2
+58.7
-43.1
+91.6
+0.3
+5.0
+3.2
+1.4
(NA)
(NA)
+0.8
98.6
58.4
0.0
236
717
-92
341
492 +-1,191
0.3
3.5
1.9
4.8
0.2
6.6
1.4
6.6
+0.6
-5.4
+0.9
0.0
r = revised; p = preliminary; e - estimated; a = anticipated; NA = not available.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk
), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See
additional basic data and notes in table 2. 2 Average percent changes are based on month-to-month (or quarter-to3
jarter) percent changes for the specified periods. To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
fid rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series
3/4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). Percent
changes are com4
5
Jted in the usual way but
the signs are reversed. (See footnote 8 for other "change" qualifications.)
Average computed with regard to sign.
Average computed
6
"thout regard to sign.
The period varies among the series; however, for most series, the period covered is 1953-65. ^Quarterly series; figures are placed in the middle
8
onth of quarter.
Since basic data for this series are expressed in 9plus or minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in
e same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percent.
Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
2, Accession rate, mfg. (per JOO employees)
j
30. -Nonagri. placements, qll Indus, (thous.)
3. Layoff rate, mfg. |(per 10(| employees^ inserted scale)
i
^
_4. J0mp. I ay of LaIL ndys^ (thous.- i nve rt_e_4_
scale. MCD moving avg.-5 term)
5. Avg. weeklyj initial claims, State unempl.
in^ur^ (thousMnve|tea^s ca l
1966
bed
bed
NOVEMBER
CHART
1966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
~L * LI 1 1 i, '
6rNew7 orders, dur. gdcTds^indJs. (bil. dot)
..=__==.,._
_ _ _ . _ _
,,..
___
24. New orders, .machj and equip. Indus, (bil. l|ol
I
>
'
;!
Constr. contracts^eom^^and Indus. (itiil,-sq^^of ]
floor area. MCD nioving ayg.-6 term)
I 10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. doL) I
New capital appropriations, mfg., Q (bil
Privdte nonfarm hodsing starts (ann. rate, million
9. New bldg. permits, private housing unit
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7966
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
130
120
38. (Index of net b s i n e s s formation (1957-59=l<!)0!
110
100
f
ew bus. incorporations (thous
- -+•*
90 -
20 ^
18
16
il.
14 2
12 -f
10
•k
14. l^jab. iof bus. failures (mil.
^
20
dol.-
ijwerted scgle._MjID_movjjrig > avg.-6 term
40
60
100
120
140
160
15. large bus. failurep (no, pjer
wk.-
verfed scqle, MCD moviig :avg.-6 term)
; 30
50
60
bed
NOVEMBER 1966
CHART
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
^_^
1 i
lo.-Gorporate profits after taxes, Q
ii laboL_cost, mfg. (mde
dollar-ot^sales, mfg., Q-(eents
io, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industriesTQ (pe^ent)
ices, 100 (ommoastocks
uJiiiuUnU
;
I i
£2i!I
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1966
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Inventory investment, buyinq policy, and sensitive prices
+ 20
21. Change in bus. inventories, all Indus., Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
+ 10
0
31.
-10
Change in book lvalue, mfg. and
i;
trade inventories (ann. rate, bil. doi.
MCD moving avij.—5 term)
|
+20
+10
20.
Change in book value, mlfrs/ inventories of
'
materials and supplies (ann. rate, bil. dol.,I
MCD movina ava.—6 term)
!\
+4
0
-4
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
75
s»
25
100
I
26.
Buying |;policy, prod. mfls., percent reporting commitments 60
a'ays or [longer
75
V~
-**—i
\X^
*
• - 'nr- '
V
-.-,,.—
—
.-—-
"•^--f
.
-ir-"^ - - - =
L
v
hange in unfilled order}*, 0V. goods indus. (bil. dol.
YICD movinQ-avb.-4-t€riTi)
—
JU - ^i
,=Ji
mmml
ki n mm mmm
bed
NOVEMBER
7966
BASIC DATA
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
__ _ _ _ _
-i—i—f.
__,....
41.
Employees
in nonagri. establishments
(millions) |
1
:
; :
i
I
!
'
!i
;i
nonagri. employment
.
_._,
^JL^^J;
I
;
JO. Unemployment rate, j married] males
ercent-jnvcrted s«afeHj=—4==—
1 LJLLJ _L
-""11:
Tim
"Tinniri
-^•-ii"i-~iri'i"Tnrnr~T
r
I
i
7—•
•
f
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate, State
(percent-inverted scale)
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
I
; " "_L_
! Ir
-47r Industrial production (intjex: 195739=103)
^ i
JL-
5aJ[GNP in 1958 jollars^Jann. rate^bil. doL)
JL
bed
bed
CHART
NOVEMBER 1966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
debirspallSMSA's except NewrjorHonprate, tritrdoktt
"-b
in
n inn
r —irrH—4 irh
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
!|
61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
62. iLaboi^cbst per unit of <k>tput, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories (bil. dol)
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.)
66. Consumer-installment debt!(bil. dol.)
bed
bed
CHART
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
__
82.
84.
95.
Fe;d. c a s h j j p a y m e n t s to ptblic (a|in. rate; bil. dol.
&g avg.—6 +er m) - - 4
Fed. cash surplus or deficit (ann. rate, bil. dol
6—term moving avgV)
Surplus or deficit, Fed. mcpme and
product acct., Q (ann. rate, bil.
90. Defense Dept. obljg., procurement (bil. doL
MCD moving avg.^6 term)
't"""t1
91. Defense Dept. ojbiig., _t«jtai (bilJ dol
moving avg.-6 t r m
92. Military contact awards in U.S
19
BASIC DATA
bed
NOVEMBER 7966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
85.
MU+15
Change in money supply (ann. fate, percent,
MCD ..mWing^avg.—6 JerfmjL .,Ji
._^_.
U- 4+11
IV
M
i
W
+5
0
-5
-10
98, Change in money supply and time_deposit$
j1
I
(ann., rate, piercent. MCD moving ayg.—6 term)
,_ l[ _ ^.._.JL,=. .... .
' . . ,-,
.._
^.._:.r_.. L,-J
*
\\
J
bed
NOVEMBER 1966
BASIC DATA
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
V 3
= =~ =f^=\-
R
r-
5
M- 3
J 4
21
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER
bed
1966
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
__--L.8& JxRQ-,rts, ex *- military.oid. (bil. dol.
L
MCO moving avjg.—4 t^rm)
r
L
. Generbl imf
MCD"ttvovirTg
M er c h a n d ise=t[ade^ba j a n ce (b i I- d o I
4—term movi
Official settlenienii] ,
L-L:.
\
=
MCD movingJjavg,-5 tfrm)
/I '
!
„
o
/
bed
CHART
NOVEMBER 7966
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
International Comparisons
471 Unitedf States (index: i957-59flOO)
123: Canada (index: 1957^9=100)
11! !"T?t
. United -Kingdom (mdeic: 1957<59^100)
European countries (indjex: 1957-59=10(5)
. West Germany (index: J?57-59=1QO)
<
|)28. Ja|)an (JLx: 1957-59=100)
jLJiiliiMuliumdj
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and month
1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
(Hours)
30. Nonagricul- 3. Layoff rate,
tural placements, manufacturing
all industries
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
(Per 100
employees)
(Thous.)
4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff, all industries
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs1
6. Value of1 manufacturers new
orders, durable
goods industries
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Bil.dol.)
24. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, machinery
and equipment
industries
(Bil. dol.)
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December ........
1964
January
February.
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
40.4
40.2
40.4
40.2
40.4
40.5
40.5
40.4
40.6
40.7
'40.5
40.6
3.8
3.8
40.1
40.5
40.5
40.7
40.6
40.7
40.7
40.9
40.6
40.7
40.9
41.2
3 8
j 0
3 Q
41.1
41.2
/ o
> -|
/ 3
3.8
4.1
3 8
3.8
3.9
3 8
3 9
3 9
3 7
3.9
3 C
3 8
/.I
4.0
4.0
3 9
4.0
L 0
/ 1
41.3
41.0
41.2
41.0
41.0
41.1
41.0
41.2
41.4
41.3
41.4
41.5
41.5
41.5
41.5
41.3
41.0
' 41 4
§£> r41 5
p41 3
534
^39
*}93
522
529
518
523
507
518
514
^33
*>?/•
I
-]
L
3
522
549
528
53S
^33
548
fij/i
*537
/
^
e;pQ
L
*>
5/7
c/ /
/.o
j
-\
L.L
1 Q
4.7
L. 8
2 o
19
1 Q
1.9
19
18
18
18
n Q
18
18
17
1 ft
1 7
18
17
18
13
16
17
i ^
16
i 5
i t
i
J.. 4y
i 3
-[ i
l 5
i/
-I
Q
1 9
-| O
/ 8
^99
r-i o
r5 1
(NA)
1 Q
1
-]
c^ry
1 q
cy o
17
C/ o
94.?
end
puy
C
p!?j>jj
Q"3
121
118
91
121
92
89
109
79
l?/
110
T "I 17
-1
f\0
Tin
K.
C0Q
n/ 7
122
111
1
Q
54/c
97
i /
16
C
A6
1 ^L
-i ypi
1 O
2-LJ
?QO
286
282
276
301
TP5
Qft
can
IM""^ *j 3
1 "30
108
135
116
1 Q
/.9
"I
310
301
288
• 293
288
284
281
T-L. V
Q
-L* 2
1 A
C^Q
152
121
107
138
Q5
92
131
18
5Oj}
C
'
552
554
555
557
546
545
541
5/3
553
575
533
525
Ifl*"^*. i n
•nl
pl.^9
f NA")
1 oi
l<cl
rt /.
b4
rt j
04
"I
rtpL
120
125
i nA
±Uo
OQ
93
i pipi
l&^x^ 74
n/
Su>
-i /j/1^5
-i n c
115
i nn
Qo
88
rjc
09
284
070
18.47
18.23
18 78
19.04
18.74
17.68
18 28
18 06
18 24
18 62
18 11
17 97
1Q 7/
T Q 5O
1Q ?A
3.25
3.2,1
3.22
3 35
"3 /?
3 29
3 33
1 31
3 /?
3 LL
3 97
3 61
3 69
•a y 1
265
262
257
260
244
245
249
262
251
20 46
20 02
21 25
19 34
19 91
19.62
1Q /6
20 72
3 ^6
3 61
3 93
3 92
3 77
3.77
3 69
3 79
3 88
3 Q9
2/3
248
21 97
91 T ^
91 7T
3 96
3 £n
y H9
22.04
20.99
21.31
22.20
21.51
22.16
22.42
22.39
23.40
4.08
4.07
4.09
4.35
4.16
4.15
4.25
4.32
4.5S
?77
?Y7
OQ1"?
£3!
224
224
231
218
ono
209
212
206
222
219
182
lu*1*^^. i nri
Et-->179
185
-i
rtX
loo
o*3n
2j}U
n o^.
19c
183
-i rt /
lo4
IP Q/
23.58
23.74
24.89
24.20
24.28
24.59
24.3?
r23. 51
[j£>. r25.21
**"^
^ j r\/
p24.Uo
4.45
4.58
4-59
4.79
4-84
4-75
g> 5.09
4.81
r4.91
p4.76
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by[j£> for series that'move counter to movements in general business .activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
1
indi-by@> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The 'V :nrl:
cates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
24 Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1963
lanuary
"ebruary .........
/larch
\prj|
day
,'
tune
luly
\ugust
leptember
ktober
November
)ecember
1964
January
"ebruary
flarch
\pril
flay
, *
une
luly
\ugust
September
)ctober
November
)ecember
1965
lanuary
•ebruary
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial
buildings
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)
(Bil.doL)
44.61
45.11
39.42
40.23
47.00
51.39
45.78
44.93
43.88
50.81
43.73
45.43
51.07
51.05
48.41
53.48
46.22
47.82
52.62
47.72
51.41
53.75
49.61
58.88
53.20
58.12
54.04
H
\pril
,ay
"
flay
une
luly
Vugust
September
October
November
)ecember
1966
lanuary
..........
r
ebruary
flarch
\pril
/lay
lune
uly
iUgUSI
September
Jctober
November
Jecember
64 .-26
56.13
55.28
55.90
49.60
63.48
60.49
60.33
64.36
61.84
B>73.31
69.09
71.63
61.96
65. PI
63.07
61.79
66.38
(NA)
3.84
3.82
3.75
3.98
4.28
3.96
3.94
3.91
4.08
4.17
4.32
4.56
4.38
4.14
4.11
4.36
4.63
4.64
4.52
4.53
4.51
4.56
4.92
4.94
4.72
4.67
4.84
4.98
5.02
4.81
5.16
4.90
5.15
5.13
5.05
5.35
5.46
5.71
5.66
5.91
5.77
5.57
6.10
r5.87
E>p6.2S
(NA)
11. Newly approved 7. New private
capital appropria- nonfarm dwelling
tions, 1,000 manu- units started
facturing
corporations1
(Bil. dol.)
2.80
3.30
3.72
4.10
4-39
4.81
5.00
4.52
5.00
5.79
5.85
6.32
6.36
&£>• r?.ll
p6.04
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized
by local building
permits
38. Index of net
business formation
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
14. Current
liabilities of
business failures
(1957-59400)
(1957-59=100)
(Number)
(Mil. dol.)
98.9
14,924
146.46
100.2
100.5
121.0
123.6
119.9
123.7
100.0
100.7
101.7
101.4
101.7
101.4
101.8
15,390
15,563
15,30515,682
15,536
15,431
16,093
15,689
16,275
15,759
15,867
93.05
94.12
88.15
115.05
91.07
144.50
B> 52.86
94.52
99.92
255.72
87.17
K> 1,753
1,706
1,571
1,506
1,496
1,593
1,475
1,489
1,422
1,495
1,480
1,575
116.8
E>124.6
121.7
113.6
112.9
115.1
111.5
113.4
109.7
109.1
110.8
105.4
103.1
102.8
102.9
103.7
105.3
103.9
104.0
103.6
104.8
106.6
105.8
106.8
16,250
16,018
15,992
16,180
15,917
15,919
15,979
16,074
16,605
16,493
17,103
17,154
91.69
119.29
110.67
107.10
97.92
136.19
125.14
90.99
118.59
97.98
111.00
126.49
1,417
1,468
1,465
1,532
1,501
1,539
1,447
1,409
1,436
1,380
1,531
1,735
112.3
108.2
109.9
106.2
109.7
109.9
108.9
108.4
. 104.1
109.8
112.9
114.0
107.5
107.6
106.1
105.3
105.0
106.8
106.4
106.4
105.3
104.6
105.3
105.9
17,275
17,367
17,112
16,504
, 16,043
16,671
16,369
16,957
17,138
16,744
17,418
16,999
84.54
107.57
146.29
79.51
139.09
135.66
120.64
128.98
108.56
85.67
66.65
128.06
108.7
|J>109.6
109.2
108.4
107.6
107.6
105.9
103.5
101.8
17,677'
0>17,868
17,305
17,022
16,603
16,641
16,688
16,224
15,564
111.67
94.59
98.73
106.93
92.41
111.23
62.84
161.75
136.24
122.23
1,285
1,438
1,486
1,652
1,676
1,550
1,574
1,522
1,676
1,706
1,592
1,522
1,585
1,349
1,538
1,481
1,287
1,261
1,068
rl,084
rl,045
p826
111.8
108.2
112.9
113.6
120.0
119.3
116.5
113.5
110.7
105.6
111.9104.6
96. Q
84.2
81.3
74.5
r64.7
p63.4
99.2
99.6
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
alues are indicated by|f£>;for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
yS£>Series numbers are tor identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indiates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
a
The data from 1961 on have been adjusted to reflect a change in the seasonal adjustment of appropriations for the petroleum
and coal products industry and a change in the reporting basis of nonelectrical machinery.
These revisions do not materially
affect comparability with the data before 1961. (See NICE publication, Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First
Quarter 1965.)
25
TABIE
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
16. Corporate
15. Number of
business failures profits after taxes
with liabilities 1
$100rOOO and over
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Number per
week)
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
JU|y
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
; '•
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
/Q
/3
/?
38
3Q
/2
A3
1*2
38
3g
n
38
iL
39
32.8
33.5
34.9
38 o
•..
38*5
yO
/2
/2
39 1
/Q
39.0
/o
42
33
47
47
39
45
43
35
40
48
37
36
36
37
38
38
42
50
47
51
(1957-59=100)
(Cents)
22. Ratio of profits 19. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
to income originating, corporate, stocks*
all industries
(Percent)
A3 8
A3. 8
44.1
A6 3
48.7
ffT^> A.8.7
P48.3
(1941-43=10)
21. Change in
business inventorie:
after valuation adjustment, all industries
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
'Revised2
99.8
100.4
101.0
101.5
102.4
101.9
101.7
101.1
101.0
100.4
8 1
...
10.8
8 5
.. .
11.3
8 6
11.3
8 8
11.7
100.7
39
35
40
18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations
99.4
31.1
40
*51
17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost
index, manufacturing
101.6
101.5
101.3
101.8
102.0
101.5
101.8
101.5
100.4
100.0
101.6
102.2
102.7
102.9
103.3
103.9
103.7
104.5
104.7
104.8
103.9
103;8
103.8
104 8
10A.6
105.0
105.4
104 9
105 3
105 4
F^*- 105 8
105 7
10A 8
p!03 9
Q n
...
# Q
~i ? ?
.• .
...
T O O
...
9 n
-ion
...
• ••
n
-] o -\
8
Q ft
-\-LJ
q ,U
n
...
Q 3
T o n
-L*t.7
...
Q /
1? Q
• *•
Q 5
1o q
-too
Br^> 9 9
CT--"*.
3O
3
JL*-'^ 1
JO
.. .
9
0
pQ 2
13.1
p!2.8
65 06
65 92
65 67
68.76
70 14
70.11
69.07
70.98
72.85
73.03
72.62
74.17
76.45
77.39
78.80
79.94
80.72
80.24
83.22
82.00
83.41
84.85
85.44
83.96
86.12
86.75
86.83
87.97
89.28
85.04
84.91
86.49
89.38
91.39
92.15
91 73
Cr-^93 32
92 69
88 88
91 60
86 78
86 06
ft^ Ry
80.65
77 81
77.13
3
81 81
+4.7
+4.8
+6.0
+8.1
TJ*:>K.
...
J_Q
4 / ' o
T-/C.
4
4-3 A
...
+7 ,4
y
T f
+Q %
•"
+7 6
+8 7
...
+1 n y
+8 Q
U>+12.3
r+9.9
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current hig
values are indicated by[J£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicate!
by|[>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indi
cates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
H5gh value (32) was reached in February. 1962.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
3
Average for November 16, 17, and 18.
8
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
26
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1963
January
February
March
April
Mav
, "
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
31. Change in
book value of manufacturing and
trade inventories,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
fail, dot.)
Revised^
4-2 /
+3 3
4-3 ?
4-3
20. Change in
37. Purchased
book value of man- materials, percent
ufacturers' inven- reporting higher
inventories
tories of materials
and supplies1
0
U
T
4-S
5
+ *J
Q
+2 2
+ *> L
+7 1
+10 1
+7 1
(Percent
reporting)
26. Production
materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or
longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent
reporting slower
deliveries*
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
25. Change in unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
(Bil. dol.)
23. Index of industrial materials
prices*
(1957-59=100)
4-0.6
+O.A
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
-0.5
+1.7
-0.4
+1.7
-0.2
-0.7
47
48
47
48
55
56
55
50
49
46
43
43
50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55
50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48 /
46
+0.96
+0.68
+0 94
+0 85
+0 33
0 58
-0.54
-0 05
+0 38
+0 10
0 09
-0 40
95.5
-1.9
-0.5
0.0
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
-1.6
+1.3
42
50
54
53
51
55
57
56
60
58
60
58
53
54
56
59
58
59
58
5B
61
60
64
65
55
54
60
60
63
55
59
65
74
72
70
66
+0.40
+0.57
+0.16
+1.04
+0.38
+0.81
+1.26
+0.06
+0.77
+1.00
+0.27
+0.55
98.5
9S.5
98.9
102.4
100.9
101.4
102.5
105.7
108.2
112.0
113.2
112.5
60
61
57
61
60
58
57
60
58
45
50
48
65
65
68
67
65
62
62
63
61
63
63
63
68
72
66
72
70
66
62
64
62
60
66
72
+0.32
+0.81
+0.44
+0.84
+0.50
+0.58
+0.38
+0.32
110.6
110.7
113 2
116.7
H6. 9
115.3
114.6
115-2
114.8
115.0
115.5
117.1
48
46
53
51
52
54
60
(j£> 61
55
58
68
67
68
69
70
74
85
|fi>86
82
75
69
70
73
72
70
95.1
9/ L
94 5
QS ?
93
94
QZ
94
96
Q7
97
9
2
?
1
3
3
7'
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
Marrh
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
4-/
?
_i_Q
C
7
i n o
-1-3
. 1
C.
4_O Q
,1
pi
i Q
C
i 1 ft
O
if) O
+ U. J
,Q a
, 1 /
Q
_i_"l O £,
+12. O
, *}
r>
+ J. 0
+14.9
+8 8
, £}
1
,17 cJ
-i-"l 1 ^
i 1O Q
4-9
3
4-A
T
-i-i n o
fij""--». 4-i Q y
, a T
4-11
7
4-1 "3
1
4-1 9
&
4-1 7
7
4-1 A
Q
, 1 -2 i
+!;> .7
4-1 ^
Q
J?"3
C\NA)
WA^I
•PI4-&
P+o.
+2.6
+4.3
+3.5
+2.0
+1.0
+0.4
+2.5
+5.3
+1.5
-0.5
+0.7
+1.4
+3.1
+0.9
+1.0
+2.0
+0.9
+1.2
+0.8
+3.8
+3.4
+4.0
+1.1
r+5 4
p+2.2
(NA)
72
73
73
72
Rr^>75
Et--^ ''
+1.24
+1.28
+0.78
+1.09
+1.27
+1.31
+1.65
- +1 . 49
+1.36
+1.70
+1.34
r+0 . 64
[IJ>r4-2.32
p+0.59
120.5
122.9
[J>123.5
121.5
118.3
118.4
118.8
111.7
108.9
106.3
3
105.8
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by[j£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by@>- Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•'•High
value (+6.6) was reached in December 1961.
a
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page
Average for November 16, 17, and 18.
3
iii.
27
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
(Thous.)
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force
survey
(Thous.)
43. Unemployment
rate, total
40. Unemployment
rate, married
males
(Percent)
(Percent)
45. Average
46. Index of helpwanted advertising
weekly insured
in newspapers
unemployment rate
r
State programs1
(1957-59=100)
(Percent)
47. Index of industrial production
{] 957-59400)
2
Revised
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
J U |y
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August . . .
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
, y
June
July
August
September .
October
November
December
55,966
56,079
5.7
3.7
56,228
56, 445
56, 59456,644
56,761
56,836
56,983
57,168
57,157
57,303
63,086
63,219
63,462
63,716
63,579
63,791
63,974
64,089
64,306
64,245
64,347
64,399
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.5
5-5
5.6
5.8
.5.5
3.7
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.3
57,336
57,676
57,800
57,942
58,061
58,211
58,369
58,521
58,747
58,649
59,118
59,387
64,621
65,084
65,208
65,765
65,774
65,472
65,581
65,682
65,697
65,730
66,133
66,426
5.6
5.45.4
5.4
5.1
5.4
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.2
4-9
5.0
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.8
3.0
59,489
59,777
60,072
60,152
60,363
60,623
60,8^1
61,021
61,180
61,437
61,864
62,241
66,719
66,718
66,895
66,919
66,947
67,43467,979
67,815
67,879
68,010
68,641
68,955
4.8
5.0
4.7
4.8
4.6
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
62,469
62,811
63,247
63,350
63,517
63,9^3
64,072
«r64,199
r64,159
£>p64,351
69,286
69,079
69,072
69,317
69,155
69,759
69,928
70,180
70,116
g>70,192
4.0
3.7
3.8
@>3.7
4.0
4..0
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.9
1.9
2.4
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.6
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
R>1.8
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.9
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.1
e!07
e!09
el08
119.8
120.6
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
109
105
104
109
105
107
111
112
118
121.9
122.7
124.4
125.6
125.6
125.4
125.7
126.1
126.1
127.0
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
116
117
118
120
118
121
124
123
126
127
134
137
128.1
128.7
129.3
131.1
132.0
132.3
133.5
134.2
133.8
131.7
135.5
137.9
3.'3
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
137
145
148
143
145
146
145
152
160
168
181
186
138.8
139.6
140.9
141.0
141.8
143.1
144.3
144.9
144.1
145.5
146.7
149.0
2.6
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.4
2.4
184
191
150.6
152.4
153.7
153.9
155.3
156.5
157.2
158.2
158.1
g> p!58.6
2.1
[jr>2.i
m--^
|JD>201
189
185
184
186
189
189
pl93
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by[i£> for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
indi-by[f[> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" inHi
cates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•"•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
s
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
28
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1963
lanuary
•ebruary
/larch
\prj|
day
, *
lune
lulv
\ugust
leptember
Dctober
November
December
1964
lanuary
r
ebruary
flarch
\pril
/lav
, *
lune
50. Gross
national product
in 1958 dollars
49. Gross
national product
in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
57. final sales 51. Bank debits, 52. Personal
(series 49 minus all SMSA's exincome
series 21)
cept New York
(224 SMSA's)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
541.2
577.4
572)7
546.0
584)2
579)4
554.7
594 ".7
58s)s
562.1
605.8
597.7
569!?
616 is
613)3
578)l
627.7
623.5
585!o
637)9
634.4
587.2
644)2
636)8
600.3
660) 8
.••
651)4
• *.
607! 8
672)9
665)3
618)2
686)5
677.8
631." 2
704-4
...
694.0
640.5
721.2
712)3
643)5
732*3
720.0
B>r649)3
g>r744.6
6D>r734.6
luly
August
September
October
November.
December
1965
lanuary
\prii
,H
day
, *
lune
luly
\ugust
September
October
November
December
1966
lanuary
r
ebruary
flarch
\oril
a*""
flay
, *
lune
luly
August
September
pctober
November
[December
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bii.dol.)
53. Labor income 54. Sales of
in mining, manu- retail stores
facturing, and
construction
(Ann. rate,
bii.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
55. Index of
wholesale prices
except farm
products and foods
(1957-59400)
457.6
455.7
457.6
458,4
461.2
464.2
465.6
467.8
470.0
473.4
474-9
479.1
120.0
119.9
120.6
120.7
122.2
123.0
123.5
123.5
124.6
125.3
125.7
126.8
20,319
20,226
20,374
20,292
20,178
20,517
20,634
20,581
20,489
20,774
20,727
20,952
100.5
100.5
100.5
100.4
100.5
100.8
100.9
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.9
101.1.
2,571.5
2,590.3
2,597.3
2,693.8
2,688.4
2,607.4
2,746.7
2,681.7
2,755.9
2,771.5
2,730.3
2,803.5
482.3
483.8
486.1
489.3
492.6
494.1
497.3
500.8
502.7
503.5
506.8
512.1
126.2
127.8
128.7
129.8
130.0
130.8
131.7
133.0
134.0
132.7
134.7
136.9
21,023
21,408
21,305
21,442
21,701
21,797
21,862
22,227
22,333
21,429
21,690
22,766
101.1
101.2
101.2
101.2
101.1
101.0
101.2
101.2
101.3
101.5
101.6
101.7
2,803.3
2,845.1
2,923.8
2,962.0
2,871.5
3,019.4
3,021.0
3,018.8
3,022.6
3,068.9
3,178.9
3,249.6
516.7
517.3
520.1
522.5
528.0
532.2
535.4
537.8
552.5
547.2
553-2
558.2
137.0
138.5
139.3
138.5
140.0
141.0
141.3
142.4
142.7
144-2
146.5
147.8
22,936
23,262
22,856
22,849
23,317
23,322
23,668
23,585
23,753
24,194
24,647
24,816
101.7
101.9
102.1
102.2
102.3
102.6
102.6
102.8
102.9
102.8
103.2
103.1
2,416.2
2,345-9
2,357.2
2,472.5
2,419.2
2,368.2
2,561.0
2,463.1
2,559.0
2,605.5
2,527.4
2,610.2
3,198.1
3,263.9
3,397.1
3,390.1
3,348.1
3,377.1
3,508.5
3,473.8
fj>3,5l6.6
P 3, 487.1
-
560.2
564.7
569.0
570.5
573.0
577.2
580.0
585.4
r590.0
g>P594.6.
149.3
25,023
151.1
25,263
152.6
25,536
153.2
24,949
154.0
24,475
155.3
25,394
25,362
155.4
157.1
r25,572
r25,656
r!58.0
E> P!53.9 B>P25,667
'
103.4
103.8
104.0
104.3
104.8
105.0
105.3
105.3
B>rl05.4
p!05.2
'105. 2
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
f/aluesare indicated by(jj>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5,14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
pyB>. Series numbers are for identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Week ended November 15.
29
TABLE
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and month
61. Business expenditures on new
plant and equipment, total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
Revised1
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January.
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
62. Index of labor
cost per unit of
output, manufacturing
101.0
100.5
36.95
• ••
99.8
99.2
99.0
38.05
...
...
40.00
98.5
99.0
99.2
99.6
99.9
.
a. 20
100.5
100.2
42.55
• •*
43.50
• *•
• ••
45.65
* ••
• ••
47.75
• ••
99.3
99.6
99.9
99.3
55.35
99.6
99.9
99.8
58.00
100.3
100.3
100.3
100.1
100.7
101.5
B>60.10
a6l.60
fc>p!02.1
a63.55
1" — f
...
104-1
* •*
...
104-2
.* .
...
104.5
...
...
105.6
.. .
98.9
98.7
98.4
98.6
...
52.75
• ••
103.7
99.4
99.0
99.4
99.2
99.6
98.9
98.9
98.7
98.6
50.35
104.2
• ••
•.*
104.0
...
.. .
• ••
103.8
99.8
99.3
(Bil. dol.)
(1957-59-100)
99.5
99.6
99.8
100.8
• 101.4
49.00
68. Index of labor 64. Book value of
cost per dollar of manufacturers'
real corporate GNP inventories
(Percent)
58.1
58.3
58.5
58.7
58.9
58.9
59.1
59.3
59.8
60.1
20.0
48,154
48,631
49,152
49,593
50,079
50,655
51,207
51,631
52,194
52,648
53,202
66.3
66.6
67.2
68.0
68.6
69.0
69.6
70.3
71.1
71.9
73.0
74.1
.
(Mil. dol.)
47,659
64.3
64.6
65.4
65.8
g>p!09.5
(Bil. dol.)
20.0
63.2
63.4
63.7
64.0
108.4
67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 19 cities*
19.9
62.4
62.9
106.8
66. Consumer installment debt -
57.9
58.0
60.0
60.1
60.3
60.5
60.5
60.4
60.5
60.8
61.0
61.8
104.5
...
...
105.3
...
*••
105.3
*••
...
105-4
...
65. Book value of
manufacturers'
inventories of finished goods
KT>> p74.8
^ (WA)
20.0
.20.1
20.3
20.3
20.4
20.6
20.6
21.0
21.2
21.6
21.6
21.6
21.8
21.9
22.2
53,689
54,259
54,865
55,333
55,907
56,375
56,911
57,410
58,004
58,475
58,836
59,454
22.4
22.4
22.5
22.3
22.4
22.3
22.5
22.5
22.6
22.7
22.9
23.1
60,069
60,666
61,308
62,053
62,709
63,304
64,028
64,684
65,370
65,990
66,689
67,323
23.5
23.6
23-8
23.8
24.1
24.1
67,920
68,458
69,107
69,638
70,131
70,680
71,244
71,846
£>• 72,321
21.2
21.4
21.4
21.6
21.6
21.5
24.5
24.7
R£>P24.9
(NA)
...
5.00
...
...
5.01
...
...
5.01
...
...
• 5.00
...
4.99
• ••
•.•
4.99
...
...
4.98
...
...
5.00
...
...
4.97
4.99
...
5.00
.
5.27
5.55
5.82
g> 6.30
(WA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current hig
values are indicated byg>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicate!
byjj> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indi
cates revised; "p"f preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA"-, not available.
1
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
30
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Year and month
1963
82. Federal cash
payments to the
public
(Ann. rate,
bil. doD
112.4
109.6
116.5
113.8
116.7
115.7
120.2
121.6
119.7
122.1
83. Federal cash
receipts from the
public
84. Federal cash
surplus (+) or
deficit (-)•
95. Surplus (+) or
deficit (-), Federal
income and product
account
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate r
bil. doU
117.2
107.3
108.5
109.1
108.1
114.1
112.8
113.7
117.3
113-4
115.3
115.4
118.7
-5.1
-1.1
-7.4
-5.7
-2.6
-2.9
-6.5
-4.3
-6.3
-6.8
-3.9
+1.5
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
126.5
119.7
121.0
122. A
118.9
116.5
122.2
121.0
117.3
118.4
112.9
126.6
115.1
119.6
116.3
121.1
108.4
113.5
114.7
112.4
113.7
115.7
115.4
115.1
-11.4
-0.1
-4.7
-1.3
-3.0
-7.5
-8.6
-3.6
-2.7
+2.5
-11.5
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
122.0
122.2
117.8
125.6
129.3
133.9
119.5
128.8
136.9
12 A. 3
146.3
126.6
110.9
117.6
128.2
144.4
118.1
129.3
116.1
125-0
126.6
113.6
129.6
125.0
-11.1
-4.6
+10.4
+18.8
-11.2
-4.6
-3.4
-3.8
-10.3
-10.7
-16.7
-1.6
1966
January
February
March
April
1
May...
, *
June
July
August
September
jOctober
November
December
146,9
142.5
153.5
139.4
153.8
135.9
164.3
154-2
162.0
p!45.4
124.3
137.1
•142.8
155.2
137.8
181.8
154*8
127.7
153.5
P149.9
-22.6
-5.4
-10.7
+15.8
-16.0
+45.9
-9.5
-26,5
-8.5
p+4.5
January
February
March
Apri 1
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
119.3
-10.5
90. Defense
Department obligations, procurement
91. Defense
Department obligations, total
92. Military prime
contract awards to
U.S. business firms
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1,586
-2.4
...
+1.8
...
+1.2
...
...
+2.1
...
-1.9
...
...
-6.7
...
...
-3.0
...
...
-0.5
...
+4-5
...
+4.4
...
...
-2.5
...
...
-0.2
•..
1,206
1,?66
1,215
1,358
1,363
1,132
1,700
1,207
2,010
1,094
1,273
4,632
4,137
4,233
4,078
4,507
4,481
4,349
4,580
4,160
5,112
4,093
4,371
2,198
2,435
2,154
1,966
2,240
2,334
1,075
1,843
1,237
1,389
1,910
1,079
1,494
803
1,141
889
1,089
1,747
4,351
5,317
4,133
4,544
4,818
4,349
4,677
4,237
4,405
3,773
4,228
5,325
2,149
2,689
1,598
2,508
2,454
1,879
2,904
1,926
2,191
1,745
2,008
1,883
1,005
700
1,355
1,444
1,402
1,254
1,128
1,741
1,732
1,733
1,212
1,882
4,278
3,839
4,624
4,593
4,630
4,520
4,258
5,223
5,276
4,962
4,896
5,669
1,830
1,628
1,874
2,926
2,025
2,438
2,699
2,770
2,465
2,566
2,679
2,915
5,100
5,179
5,879
6,444
5,447
7,084
4,998
7,215
6,579
(NA)
2,712
2,596
2,357
3,466
2,945
3", 675
4,694
2,845
3,407
(NA)
+2.3
1,521
1,420
1,947
+3.8
1,588
p+0.3
1,477
2,541
1,990
(NA)
2,299
2,693
.
2,419
2,733
2,578
2,086
1,681
2,079
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those .that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*).. Series numbers
iafe for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preIliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
31
TABLE
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
93. Free reserves* 85. Change in
total U.S. money
supply
99. New orders,
defense products
Year and month
(Mil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
JU|y
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2.89
2.09
+375
2.42
1.97
2.40
1.90
2.40
2.36
2.47
1.92
1.97
1.48
+269
2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2.48
2.34
3.29
1.86
1.98
2.41
1.79
1.87
+175
+301
+313
+247
+138
+161
+133
+91
+94
+33
+209
+89
+99
+167
+82
+120
+135
+83
+89
+106
-34
+168
+106
2.37
2.44
2.46
3.24
2.46
2.58
2.62
2.81
+36
-75
-105
-180
-182
-174
-134
-144
-146
y. 45
3.28
2.57
2.53
-83
-2
-44
-107
-246
-268
3.40
3.04
3-38
3.30
2.91
3.68
3-. 50
-352
-352
-358
r-390
r-398
p-428
r3.l6
r4.66
P3.20
(Ann. rate,
percent)
+4-08
+4-92
+1,56
+7.68
+6.24
+4.08
+5.76
+7.56
+8.40
+9.24
+7.80
+9.43
+8.52
+7.68
+9-24
0.00
r+6.36
p-6.36
112. Change in
business loans
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
50,036
41,688
...
.**
42,392
51,956
44,172
44,308
+9.24
+6.72
+7.68
+3.96
+3.12
+0.72
+3.12
+3.84
+4.68
+7.68
+4-56
+7.68
+4.56
+1.56
+5-28
+5-76
+1.44
+7.80
+11.28
-4-92
+6.36
-10.56
mil. dol.)
111. Corporate
gross savings
+8.28
+7.20
+8.04
+8.52
+6.96
+6.96
+9.24
+11.04
+4.56
0.00
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
percent)
+4.08
+3-96
+4.80
+4.80
+1.56
+2.40
+6.36
+7.08
-0.84
+0.72
+3-72
+5-28
-2.28
+7.44
+5.16
+4-44
+8.04
+8.04
+2.88
+11.64
110. Total private
borrowing
98. Change in
money supply and
time deposits
...
.. •
54,428
•. .
48,143
...
.. .
61,680
...
...
56,032
...
56,432
...
49,300
• »•
...
50,556
.. .
...
52,116
.. .
. *.
51,348
...
+8.76
+8.76
+7.44
+8.16
+4-08
+10.56
+9-72
+10.80
+10.68
+12.60
+8.52
62,420
54,984
69,512
54,496
...
. **
...
64,788
55,524
...
•.•
...
67,756
...
56,352
...
+11.52
+6.48
+3.36
+7.92
+13.20
+3.36
+10.08
+0.36
+5.16
r+4.80
p-4.44
.. .
47,184
66,052
...
...
r75,152
57,752
.. .
***
57,788
...
•..
'
P59,896
P59,056
+1.43
+1.42
+1.85
+2.40
+2.35
+1.74
+1.97
+2.04
+2.08
+4.66
+5-22
+5-78
+1.79
+3.48
+1.42
+3-17
+4.25
+3.89
+4-31
+4.78
+4.28
+1.43
+0.32
+8.62
+12.35
+13.14
+12.47
+6.32
+11.04
+11.38
+10.00
+5.53
+4.00
+5.33
+0.32
+10.84
+14.23
+7.21
+8.87
+6.60
+10.93
+19.69
MNA)
+3.49
-3.06
p+5.57
1
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect seriesI( relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The 'V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and NA", not available.
Because of a change in coverage, data beginning with July 1966 are not comparable with data for the earlier period.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
32
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
NOVEMBER
BASIC DATA
1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Year and month
1963
113. Net change in 114. Treasury bill
consumer installrate*
ment debt
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
January
February
March
April
May....
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
115. Treasury bond 116. Corporate bond 117. Municipal bond 118. Mortgage
yields*
yields*
yields*
yields*
(Percent)
86. Exports excluding military aid
shipments, total
+5.82
+5.94
+5.72
+6.25
+5.29
+5.83
+6.91
+6.62
+5.09
+6.76
+5.45
+6.65
2.91
2.92
2.90
2.91
2.92
3.00
3.14
3-32
3-38
3.45
3.52
3.52
3.89
3,92
3.93
3.97
3-97
4.00
4-01
3.99
4.04
4.07
4.11
4-14
4.22
4.25
4.28
4.35
4.36
4.32
4.34
4.34
4.40
4.37
4-42
4.49
3.10
3.15
3.05
3.10
3.11
3.21
3.22
3.13
3.20
3.20
3.30
3.27
5.52
5.48
5.47
5.46
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
(Mil.dol.)1
Revised
985.2
2,124.1
1,957.7
1,913.7
1,895.0
1,803.4
1,841.1
1,922.1
1,958.1
1,967.7
1,965.3
2,093.2
+5.B4
+6.84
+7.27
+5.62
+6.89
+5.62
+6.43
+5.99
+7.13
+5.65
+4.33
+7.42
3.53
3-53
3.55
3-48
3-48
3.48
3.48
3.51
3.53
3.58
3.62
3.86
4.15
4.14
4.18
4.20
4.16
4.13
4.13
4.14
4.16
4.16
4.12
4.14
4.50
4.39
4.45
4.48
4.48
-4.50
4.44
4.44
4.49
4.49
4.48
4.49
3.22
3.14'
3.28
3.28
3.20
3.20
3.18
3.19
3.23
3.25
3.18
3.13
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.46
5.46
5.46
5.45
5.45
5.45
2,039.6
2,057.8
2,075.2
2,061.0
2,047.3
2,076.5
2,118.6
2,099.8
2,261.0
2,156.4
2,206.2
2,426.1
+7.38
+7.16
+7.70
+8.94
+7.87
+7.14
+8.69
+7.87
+8.23
+7.44
+8.39
+7.61
3.83
3.93
3.94
3.93
3.90
3.81
3.83
3.84
3.91
4.03
4.08
4.36
4.14
4.16
4.15
4-15
4.14
4.14
4.15
4.19
4.25
4.28
4-34
4.43
4.45
4.45
4-49
4.48
4.52
4.57
4.57
4.66
4.71
4.70
4.75
4-92
3.06
3.09
3.18
3.15
3.17
3.24
3.27
3.24
3-35
3.40
3-46
3.54
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.45
5.44
5.44
5.45
5.46
5.49
5.51
5.62
1,214.6
1,598.8
2,754.8
2,379.6
2,260.2
2,230.2
2,255.5
2,332.9
2,324.1
2,341.6
2,408.2
2,355.8
+7.16
+6.46
+7.79
+6.37
+5.92
+6.59
+6.77
+7.22
+5.70
(NA)
4.60
4.67
4-63
4.61
4.64
4.54
4.86
4-93
5.36
5.39
4.43
4.61
4.63
4-55
4.57
4.63
4.75
' 4.80
4.79
4.70
4.93
5.09
5.33
5.38
5.55
5.67
5.81
6.04
6.14
6.04
3.52
3.64
3.72
3.56
3.65
3.77
3.95
4-12
4-12
3.94
5.70
(NA)
6.00
(NA)
6.32
6.45
6.51
6.58
6.63
(NA)
2,248.6
2,334.8
2,594.2
2,331.2
2,364.3
2,485.8
2,460.5
2,460.^
2,579.8
2,621.1
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA11, not available.
"New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
87. General im- 88. Merchandise
ports, total
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)
Year and month
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
(Mil. dol.)
Revised3
1,099.9
1,510.4
1,484.7
1,414.4
1,416.2
1,430.9
1,449.6
1,497.4
1,442.9
1*454.5
1,465.2
1,477.8
(Mil. dol.)
Revised3
-114.7
+613.7
+473.0
+499.3
+478.8
+372.5
+391.5
+424.7
+515.2
+513.2
+500.1
+615.4
1,418.1
1,458.8
1,518.0
1,537.2
1,530.1
1,514-0
1,573.2
1,608.1
1,563.4
1,550,5
1,697.7
1,641*9
+621.5
+599.0
+557.2
+523.8
+517.2
+562.5
.+545.4
+491.7
+697.6
+605.9
+508.5
+784.2
1,192.7
1,599.6
1,861.0
1,832.9
1,789.0
1,829.5
1,741.1
1,853.5
1,864.6
1,884.6
1,951.9
1,892.4
+21.9
-0.8
+893.8
+546.7
+471.2
+400.7
+514.4
+479.1
+459.5
+457.0
+456.3
+463.4
1,935.5
1,992.9
2,072.7
2,138.2
2,054.4
2,114.9
2,206.8
2,148.1
2,310.5
2,260.2
+313.1
+341.9
+521.5
+193.0
+309.9
+370.9
+253.7
+312.4
+269.3
+360.9
81. Index of con- 94. Index of con89. Excess of receipts (+) or paystruction conments {-) in U.S. balance of payments sumer prices
tracts, value
b. Official
a. Liquidity
settlements
balance basis
basis
(Mil. dol.)
-1,218
(1957-59=
100)
(Mil. dol.)
-1,081
-1,114
-871
...
-200
0
-138
-92
(1957-59=
100)
96, Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(Bil. dol.)
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7
121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148
45.06
45.74
46.68
47.53
47.86
47.28
46.74
46.70
47.07
47.17
47.08
46.68
107.8
107.7
107.8
108.0
108.1
108.1
108.1
108.2
108.3
108.4
108.6
108.9
147
143
140
138
138
138
140
121
131
136
143
154
47.07
47.64
47.80
48.84
49.22
50.04
51.30
51.37
52.14
53.14
53. Al
53.96
109.0
109.0
109.1
109.5
109.9
110.2
110.0
110.0
110.1
110.3
110.6
111,0
137
140
141
152
145
139
149
139
147
147
141
153
54.28
55.09
55.53
56.37
56.88
57.45
57.83
58.15
59.38
60.66
61.44
62.53
111.0
111.7
112.1
112.6
112.8
113.0
113.1
113.8
114.1
(MA)
152
157
158
161
156
147
147
139
146
(NA)
63.80
65.11
66.76
68.25
69.61
71.31
72.65
r73.29
r75:6l
p76.20
106.1
106.1
106.2
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing^
(Bil. dol.)
8^88
...
9^38
10.05
11.02
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
-248
-552
-144
-326
-617
...
-231
-1,381
-845
12.08
13-23
14-54
14^97
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
196b
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
.
-697
+226
-534
-332
r-536
-618
+239
+232
.-1,158
r-226
r-125
r-198
p-2I7':
P+993
15^66
17!o5
18*.17
19.48
20.34
r22.07
p22*.37
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those tnat appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not avaifable.
1
The data from 1961 on have been adjusted to reflect a change in the seasonal adjustment of appropriations for the petroleum
and coal products industry and a change in the reporting basis of nonelectrical machinery.
These revisions do not materially
affect comparability with the data before 1961.
(See NICE publication, Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First
Quarter 1965.)
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. •
34
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
International Comparisons
Year and month
1963
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
i '
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
47, United
123. Canada,
States, index of index of indusindustrial produc- trial production
tion
(1957-59=
100)
Revised^
(1957-59=
100)
120
128
129
129
131
132
132
134134
134
132
136
138
133
134
133
135
133
133
134
135
135
136
139
140
139
140
142
1/1
130
128
128
129
128
130
129
128
130
130
131
1/^
142
142
143
144
147
148
149
151
153
151
152
154
154
155
156
157
158
158
153
155
156
156
156
156
155
p!57
(MA)
(1957-59=
100)
110
121
122
122
123
123
121
123
125
126
128
131
i /i
125. West
European coun- Germany, index
tries, index of of industrial
production
industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
120
121
122
123
124
126
126
125
126
126
126
127
141
142
143
144
145
144
146
147
149
121. OECD, 1
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
111
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
120
121
121
123
123
123
124
1 29
139
142
144
145
140
150
143
147
145
145
149
149
149
146
146
n/1
±4.4
146
148
148
148
156
1 S6
r!48
r!53
r!54
nsr
131
151
151
153
153
rl53
131
130
r!29
131
P132
129
128
132
133
133
139
1 3/
136
136
138
140
139
149
150
150
130
133
-
127
126
127
130
131
132
1 3?
132
134
135
136
136
139
140
139
141
139
138
137
140
143
143
143
123
123
1?2
123
123
127
128
129
'
(MA)
pi 59
(1957-59=
100)
r!54
153
p!53
(NA)
1 /Q
154
154
155
151
156
154
154
156
155
160
160
157
161
158
154
p!51
(NA)
126. France,
index of industrial production
(1957-59=
100)
127. Italy, index 128. Japan, index
of industrial " of industrial
production
production
(1957-59=
100)
127
158
125
116
129
133
13A
155
161
165
165
166
163
166
171
1 ?Q
129
136
137
136
138
(1957-59=
100)
179
184
184
191
190
191
203
202
171
173
170
207
211
214
217
140
139
139
141
140
141
132
132
141
142
142
138
172
169
173
168
166
164
166
156
165
166
168
168
219
224
224
226
228
233
232
232
239
241
237
242
137
166
169
166
169
175
176
178
r!75
178
179
184
183
245
238
2/5
242
236
246
242
240
1 3Q
1 ^Q
140
139
142
144
IV,
L44
147
147
150
146
149
151
150
150
153
r!56
r!56
p!56
(MA)
185
185
188
189
196
196
p!95
(NA)
•245
242
244
247
256
252
256
260
260
267
273'
r278
p279
(MA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
3
35
Section TWO
charts and tables
OF 'HIGHS' FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek —21 industries
New orders —36 industries
Capital appropriations — J 7 industries
Profits —700 companies
Stock prices—80 industries
Industrial materials prices — 13 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment —30 industries
Production —24 indusfries
Wholesale prices—23 industries
Retail sales—24 types of sfores
Net sales—800 companies
New orders— 400 companies
Carloadings — 19 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures —22 indusfries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
37
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 1966
DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
Business cycle peak
Current expansion
Sept,
1966
Aug.
1966
July
1966
Nov.
1948
Oct.
1966
July
1957
July
1953
May
1960
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
/months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
5
1
1
4
3
I
3
2
4
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
2k
/ 17
6
5
1
4
3
1
2
2
3
3
5
2
1
1
4
2
1
1
1
2
3
4
2k
12
2
1
3
1
16
6
24
17
15
9
1
5
1
2
"4
"i
24
16
2
1
2
3
24
0
24
0
2
"i
X
20
0
2
21
5
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
"
2
1
1
7
11
64
1
1
1
1
1
1
7
11
64
3
4
**3
'
6
2
7
11
55
11
64
Apr,
1953
"i
3
"2
3
**3
"i
'3
4
"2
3
11
27
11
36
11
27
**3
1
11
0
Jan.
1957
Jan,
1953
May
1948
Feb.
1960
Apr.
1957
1
6th month before business cycle peak
3d month before business cycle peak
Aug.
1948
"i
1
2
1
2
1
1
NOV,
1959
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4
13
2
4
2
2
5
1
2
1
3 months
'*4
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
1
*20
5
2
21
5
21
"i
2
13
2
"i
2
1
2
3
1
1
1
1
4
1
2
3
7
9
1
"5
2
*3
24
0
24
0
^0
15
2
21
33
18
*i
2
1
2
24
0
6
7
3
2
2
1
2
1
24
4
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month . .
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
2
1
2
1
"i
1
"i
"i
"3
1
1
2
*i
*i
"i
"i
4
2
1
2
6
"5
4
3
2
"4
3
5.
3
6
"4
5
4
"l
3
11
55
11
36
11
IS
11
45
11
45
11
55
11
36
11
27
NOTE: All quarterly series and 2 monthly series (series 15, a leading indicator, and series 40, a roughly coincident indicator) are omitted from the distribution.
series were not available.
1 series was not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks vere reached during the Korean War and such peaks
were disregarded in this distribution.
X
4
2
38
bed
NOVEMBER 7966
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
CHART
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
Percent
100
50
i
L|
:
'
~ i
j ' •
:
\
p6. New orders, dur. goods Indus.-36 Indus
'
Oil. Newly approved capital approprial ons
—1-7 Indus., NIGB 4—- ,1—^—
.Q |p0n,
—-- 1-q span)
;
j
D34I Profits, FNCB of NY, pjercent reporting
profits-^OO^xosl
!
D19. Stock prices,^
i
j
: s / f\ \
023. Industrial materials prices-13 indus. m
:
i
!
.
i
_ i
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948
NOVEMBER
1966
bed
TO PRESENT-Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Percent
DJl. Employees in] nonagr. establishments-ISO indus.
(6-mo. span!—
1-mo. span —)
1
I:
D47. Industrial prpduction-24 indijs
(6-mjo. span —
I-mo. spain
Wholesale prices, mfrd. g
. Sales of re il stores-r 2 4 tjpes of ^tores
Jl
"-^i
(9-mo. span
1-mo. spa
--—-=•—| f —•
'uJiMJlLliUjlil JLfjJ JlJUlMlljUL, ItJUlMjt.
Hll?
jlMIlli OJ AIUJJUI AflMlulu
UIS1 ' H I M
WO
11U M ill Jl i j111) I 1 11'J 1 f 111 111 111111111 Uilll III n fJ HU P I i hi n 111 l/l I
'I'M • i .
NI^ il^i i | l i l ( '
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 1966
CHART
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Percent
p35. Net sales, all mfrs.-800 c<js.
(4-h span)!
100
Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
035,036 (July 1966)
D48 (Sept. 1966)
D61(Aug. 1966)
juuiiM..
Mil
Actual
2d Q 1965-2d Q 196G
4thQ 1964-4tliQ 1965
1st Ql966-2ndQ 1966
Anticipated
4th Q 19G5-4th Q 1966
4thQ 1965-4thQ 1966
3d Q 1966-4thQ 1966
mmmmluiUU ui yLiM
I11S1 1111 Hi 1
JL!^IMJIAMA!wuukj h 1 IM
41
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and month
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January.
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)
1-month span
1-month span
.
'
9-month span
9-month span
73.8
40.5
52.4
14-3
83.3
66.7
61.9
45.2
71.4
50.0
33.3
64.3
59.5
42.9
90.5
69.0
81.0
78.6
71.4
69.0
57.1
61.9
57.1
78.6
63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33-3
62.5
88.9
69.4
66.7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8
0.0
85.7
47.6
78.6
31.0
31.0
69.0
73.8
14-3
61.9
69.0
90.5
69.0
52.4
61.9
81.0
50.0
85.7
78.6
92.9
85.7
88.1
95.2
57.1
55.6
44.4
58.3
61.1
44.4
50.0
63.9
40.3
54.2
58.3
55.6
68.1
76.4
83.3
80.6
75.0
72.2
58.3
63.9
83-3
72.2
63.9
61.1
68.1
61.9
57.1
- 76.2
19.0
81.0
28.6
52.4
59.5
40.5
71.4
81.0
54-8
83.3
81.0
78.6
61.9
47.6
54.8
71.4
64.3
81.0
95.2
92.9
83.3
48.6
38.9
63.9
50.0
44.4
58.3
59.7
41.7
61.1
61.1
55.6
76.4
77.8
75.0
77.8
68.1
66.7
68.1
91.7
83.3
80.6
81.9
86.1
83.3
30.6
50.0
84-7
75.0
75.0
66.7
r72.2
r6l.l
P52.8
57.1
69.0
40.5
50.0
50.0
33.3
21.4
r6l.9
r69.0
P47.6
83.3
76.2
31.0
r35.7
r47.6
P40.5 .
a. 7
50.0
51.4
50.0
59.7
r41.7
P47.2
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)1
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
47
53
*59
*53
*53
*65
*65
*76
...
53
76
*56
"?1
• ••
53
'44
32
59
...
76
*71
...
65
...
76
53
*82
*59
*71
65
76
r53
P47
P29
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p" F preliminary; and "NA", not available.
L
The data from 1961 on have been adjusted to reflect a change in the seasonal adjustment of appropriations for the petroleum
and coal products industry and a change in'the reporting basis of nonelectrical machinery.
These revisions do not materially
affect comparability with the data before 1961.
(See NICE publication. Investment Statistics—Capital Appropriations: First
Quarter 1965.)
—
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
42
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 7966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
(around 700 corporations)
1-quarter span
1963
January
February
March
April
May
,' *
June
July
August
September
October
November.
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
, "
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
50
*59
...
56
...
55
...
57
...
*60
...
* *.
57
...
*56
55
D19. Index of stock prices, 5001 common
stocks (80 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
1-month span
97.5
78.7
43.7
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4
95-0
95.0
98.7
95.0
89.1
84.6
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
61.5
46.2
50.0
46.2
46.2
69.2
46,2
38.5
69.2
69.2
50.0
57.7
74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
81.8
68.8
65.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
59-6
24.0
92.2
81.8
64-3
70.8
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
*59
*62
74.0
48.7
14-3
63.6
July
August
48
23.4
38.3
September
October
November
December
66.9
0.0
*55
*60
57
D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
24-7
79-9
81.2
66.9
70.1
- 57.1
3-9
6.5
3.9
25.3
84.4
.
75.3
76.6
76.6
53.8
53.8
46.2
65.4
30.8
53.8
46.2
76.9
69.2
73.1
61.5
38.5
80.5
58.4
51.9
58.4
72.7
67.5
61.0
59.1
63.6
60.4
67.5
70.1
53.8
30.8
69.2
76.9
53.8
57.7
46.2
51.9
43-5
37.7
22.1
11.7
61.5
76.9
46.2
30.8
42.3
46.2
6.5
42.3
50.0
15.4
34.6
61.5
61.5
26.9
0.0
2 1 ?' 2
3
26. 9
9-month span
61.5
69.2
61.5
69.2
65-4
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
76.9
D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,
week including .the 12th (47 areas)
1-month span
34.0
89.4
31.9
47.9
46.8
68.1
44.7
44.7
44.7
59.6
9-month span
44.7
66.0 '
72.3
48.9
63.8
80.9
46.8
31.9
85.1
60.6
40.4
23.4
53.2
73.4
61.5
69.2
69-2
76.9
76.9
80.8
84.6
76.9
69.2
69.2
76.9
69.2
89.4
27.7
57.4
77.7
48.9
48.9
63.8
51.1
53.2
34-0
31.9
83.0
73.4
72.3
70.2
74.5
89.4
60.6
61.7
89-4
61.7
70.2
74.5
72.3
69.2
76.9
61.5
69.2
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
46.2
38.5
53.8
24.5
57.4
66.0
61.7
59.6
51.1
34.0
78.7
78.7
59.6
66.0
61.7
78.7
80.9
87.2
70.2
62.8
91.5
95.7
53-8
61.5
61.5
53.8
30.8
15.4
3
7.7
38.3
44.7
83.0
53.2
45.7
57.4
17.0
38.3.
78.7
57.4
44.7
51.1
91.5
74.5
44.7
68.1
76.6
78.7
72.3
80.9
36.2
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on thelst month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19 which requires no
adjustment and D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
1
The diffusion index is based on 82 components through February 1963; on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963; on 79
components, September 1963 to March 1964; on 78 components, April 1964 to November 1964; and on 77 components thereafter.
^Average for November 16, 17, and 18.
43
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 1966
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
D41. Number of employees in
nonagricultural establishments
(30 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
1-month span
Revised
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
•
2
6-month span
D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)1
1-month span
9-month span
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(23 manufacturing industries)
1-rnofith span
6:month span
Revised5
65.0
41.7
73.3
75.0
76.7
56.7
73.3
53.3
55-0
73.3
45.0
66.7
60.0
66.7
68.3
65.0
68.3
68.3
66.7
51.7
55.0
53.3
65.0
70.0
79-2
66.7
83.3
54.2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1
83.3
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
83-3
91.7
77.1
79.2
77.1
83.3
85.4
50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
58.3
54-2
77.1
70.8
79.2
85, 4
77.1
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.8
91.7
83.3
77.1
41.3
41.3
U.3
47.8
58.7
73.9
50.0
58.7
52.2
69.6
63.0
71.7
32.6
47.8
58.7
60.9
63.0
69.6
71.7
78.3
71.7
69.6
67.4
82.6
45.0
75.0
73.3
68.3
65.0
73.3
63.3
65.0
83.3
61.7
86.7
73.3
68.3
70.0
73-3
83.3
78.3
76.7
76.7
93.3
91.7
80.0
91.7
91.7
70.8
77.1
66.7
87.5
66.7
66.7
81.2
75.0
45.8
79.2
79.2
87.5
91.7
95.8
95.8
91.7
87.5
89.6
70.8
83.3
95.8
83.3
91.7
91.7
43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
66.7
66.7
39.1
71.7
34.8
78.3
56.5
60.9
79.2
100.0
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
73.9
78.3
73.9
76.1
54.3
78.3
63.0
69.6
52.2
71.7
34.8
34.8
69.6
65.2
60.9
56.5
56.5
60.9
69.6
69.6
69.6
56.5
56.5
56.5
60.9
58.7
60.9
69.6
78.3
82.6
73.3
70.0
86.7
63.3
63.3
88.3
88.3
70.0
71.7
88.3
93.3
86.7
81.7
78.3
80.0
80.0
81.7
75.0
88.3
91.7
93.3
90.0
95.0
93.3
79.2
70.8
77.1
56.2
70.8
91.7
81.2
75.0
54.2
79.2
83.3
87.5
83.3
85.4
87.5
83.3
83.3
79.2
87.5
91.7
87.5'
87.5
89.6
100.0
63.0
69.6
30.4
54.3
87.0
43.5
80.4
47.8
73.9
73.9
78.3
37.0
80.4
87.0
87.0
73.9
87.0
87.0
95.7
91.3
95.7
95.7
95.7
91.3
63.0
60.9
67.4
67.4
60.9
60.9
60.9
54.3
52.2
52.2
69.6
73.9
76.1
80.4
82.6
76.1
67.4
69.6
60.9
60-.9
71.7
73.9
87.0
89.1
85.0
85-0
91.7
73.3
76.7
91.7
48.3
r73.3
r21.7
p71.7
95.0
91.7
86.7
85.0
r8l.7
r73.3
P73.3
70.8
70.3
87.5
64.6 "
58.3
87,5
45.8
62.5
35.4
P41.7
95.8
91.7
87.5
70.8
81.2.
58.3
P72.9
71.7
69.6
60.9
43.5
30.4
95.7
47.8
r47.8
r60.9
p65.2
82.6
8£. 8
82.6
78.3
r78.3
P71.7
63.0
80.4
71.7
73.9
71.7
73.9
78.3
52.2
r43.5
P50.0
89.1
95.7
89.1
95.7
91.3
r82.6
P 65.2
'
i
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on
the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for the indexes shown.
The V indicates revised; "p" preliminary; and "MA", not available.
1
The diffusion index is based on 24 components through June 1964, and on 23 components thereafter.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
a
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
44
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 1966
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
D35. Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies)
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies)
D48. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups)
D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (16 industries)
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
4-Quarter span
1-quarter span
Year and month
Actual
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
Anticipated
March
Apri 1
May
, *
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Actual
"?6
"so
77
*76
73.7
*7Z
*80
*76
*76
**•
82
'sZ
*82
*84
••*
*85
*83
Anticipated
Change in
total (000)
78.*9
+39
57.9
68!Z
+A4
*80
78.*9
• •*
78.9
*U
"82
*sZ
68 !Z
73.7
-60
*87
*••
'aZ
'sZ
8^.2
68*.Z
-9
*82
*86
*8l
"sZ
73.7
9Zi?
r+34
*S3
*87
*sZ
'al
52.6
...
89*.5
+Z?
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
Anticipated
Actual
• ••
. ••
"sZ
*88
*sZ
*85
52.6
89.5
U7
*90
*88
*90
"sZ
63 .'2
84.2
+25
*88
*88
*88
• ••
'sZ
*90
89^5
+18
*89
84.2
+20
*83 :
78.9
*89
"87
*89
*91
88
*91
(NA)
(NA)
Anticipated
40.6
50.0
65 !e
75.0
75.*0
71 .*9
71.9
75.0
71.9
50.0
62*. 5
50.0
84.4
75.0
96*. 9
...
68!s
56.2
65.6
.. *
75.0
68*.8
87.5
...
65.6
81*2
sZ.'Z
r+23
+28
*90
*88
84.2
73.7
*88
(NA)
63.2
Actual
• . *
81.2
62.5
84-4
71.9
(NA)
37^5
75!o
NOTE* Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61; other indexes, based on 4-quarter spans (same quarter a year ago), require
no seasonal adjustment. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and U NA", not available.
45
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 1966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data
1966
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Sept.
Dec.
Nov.
Oct.
Jan.
June
July
Aug.r
Sept.
Oct.p
Average weekly hours
01. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(21 industry components)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
la.o
ltl.2
ia.it
ia. 3
ia.i*
ia. 3
la.o
la.u ria.5
1*1.3
1*2.0
1*2.1
1*2.1*
Uo.6
la.i
1*2.1*
1*1.?
1*2.1*
la.i
1*2.1
1*0.?
1*2.7
1*0.6
1*2.1
1*0.3
1*1.6
rl|2.5
rl*0.3
rl|1.2
1*2.7
1*0.?
1*1.3
1*2.0
la. 8
1*1.7
Ul. 9
111. 6
1*2.2
1*2.1
1*2.1*
1*2.2
rl*2.6
ri*2.6
1*2.9
1*2.3
U3.3
1*3.8
1*1*.3
rla-3
ri*3.0
rl*2.2
r39.9
1*3.2
1*0.7
1*2.1
la. 6
la.?
1*3.?
1*1.0
1*2.8
111. 8
ia. 2
ia-7
1*2.2
la. 2
1*2.3
1*2.3
1*3.7
1*3.8
1*3.8
la. 2
1*2.9
39.9
1*0.0
1*0.8
38.1
111. 8
36.1
1*3.0
iil.l
37.7
ia.i
37.9
la. 9
38.7
1*2.1
h2.$
1.1.7
38.3
36.1*
1*3.3
38.?
la. 9
1*2.?
1*2.3
38.?
1*2.?
ia. 9
1*2.?
1*1.7
1*0.2
la- 8
la. 7
1*3-0
la. 3
ia.i*
la. 7
36.?
1*3.7
38.6
1*2.0
kz.h
1*2.1*
38.6
la.u
1*3.0
ia. 7
1*0.2
ia.i
37-8
1*2.0
36.1*
1*3.?
38.7
1*2.0
1*2.0
1*2.3
38.1*
ia. 8
1*1.9
1*2.0
1*2.3
1*3.8
la.?
ia. 2
1*3.1*
1*2.2
1*0.0
1*2.3
1*2.0
1*0.1
ia.i
38.9
la.o
38.0
1*2.2
36.3
1*3.3
38.?
1*2.0
1*2.3
1*2.3
38.?
la.o
ia.?
ia. 6
la. 8
1*0.9
1*2.1
ia.7
ia. 2
1*3-2
ia. 7
39.7
1*0.0
ia. 3
ia.i
1*2.2
36.?
1*3.1*
37.9
1*1.7
36.2
1*3.1*
36.3
39.0
1*2.0
1*2.?
39.0
1*2.0
1*2.1*
la.?
la. 9
ia. 8
38.7
38.3
38.6
ia. 7
37.8
1*2.0
1*3.3
38.9
1*2.0
Ha. 9
rlil. 2
r38.1*
rl*2.1
r3?.6
rl*3.1*
39.0
rl*2.0
rla.9
rla-9
r38.3
la. 7
1*3.9
la. 2
1*2.3
1*2.2
39.8
1*0.7
37.2
ia.i*
36.9
1*3.1
39.0
1*2.2
1*2.1*
1*2.2
38.9
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(36 industry components)
All durable goods industries
22,163
2,908
Primary metals
Blast furnaces, steel mills
1,276
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
Fabricated metal products
2,013
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products . .
...
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
3,31?
Steam engines and turbines*
\ 21*2
Internal combustion engines #
Farm machinery and equipment ...
Construction, mining, and material handling*. .
620
Metalworking machinery *
229
Miscellaneous equipment *
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
2U6
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *
22,1*2?
22,389
23,1*03
23,?78
2l*,?93
21*, 371
3,11*8
l,U5l
3,392
1,63?
3,681;
1,8?1*
3,603
1,776
1*,109
2,173
1*,106
2,227
3,792
1,906
rl*,036
P2,l62
3,810
2,0?0
2,213
2,33?
2,177
2,163
2,231
2,128
p2,106
(NA)
3,31*9
3,396
3,?32
3,1*26
232
316
3,1*27
221*
3,609
157
329
266
3,771*
1*20
P3,707
P370
(NA)
67?
279
660
277
?70
26U
638
231
617
297
61t6
21*1*
631*
323
p626
P2?l
(NA)
(NA)
2?9
2?8
278
260
251
3U3
267
P269
(NA)
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency,
p = preliminary.
r=^ re vised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted "by source agency.
23,512 r2?,209
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
21*, 060
(NA)
(NA)
NA=Not available.
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 1966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change
1-month spans
9-month spans
1966
1966
Diffusion index title and components
CD •
00
_>*
•£?
•*-•
*6 S
I
£
t
I
i 1
A
-a
^
^> ^ c ^ ° ° o .
<D
m
OJ
57
69
40
+
+
0
-
s
^
->
<c
<^
tlllflsll^
50
50
33
21
62
69
48
81
95
93
83
0
0
—
4
4
4
4
O
+
O O -
4
0
-
O
+
0
+
_ _
4
+
4
-
4
4
-
_
4
4
-
-
O
-
-
+
0-
-
-
_
+
-
-
CD
-
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
4
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
-
4
-
4
+
+
4,
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
_
-
+
+
+
-
-
4
4
-
4
+
-
-
4
4
-
_
0
-
-
_
_
_
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
44
+
+
+
+
-
4
-
+
+
4
+
+
+
-
o
-
-
_
+
_
_
.4
+
0
+
-
+
-
+
0
-
-
0
+
0
4
+
+
+
+
+
-
4
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
+
+
0
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
-
-
+
+
-
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
0
+
O -
-
+
O
+
0
-
-
+
0
+
-
+
0
-
+
0
0
+
-
+
-
+
O
O
O
4
4
4
O
-
-
O
+
O
+
O
O
O
40
4
+
+
-
-
48
0
+
4
-
36
-
0
-
O
31
4
-
O
4
4
76
+
-
+
-
83
4
-
4
-
4
+
- -
O
_
=
3
-
+
+
04+
+
•
4
O
+
-
4
-
3
44
-
4
CO
+
+
O
4
^-
+
-
-
= *s 5 J - ^ = - l > J ) s - ' "
^<? u 2
_ ^ < C s - ? - ^ < F ^ o
<c
C°
O
-
-
|
s
o ^ u .
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(21 industry components)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery except electrical . . . •
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
,
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Appare! and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing •
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
B
|
-
+
-
-
4
4
4
+
+
4
4
4
4
+
+
-
0
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
^
+
O
+
+
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
-4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
- 4
+
+
+
-
+
44
+
-
4
0
-
4 4
O
4
-
+
+ . +
O
4
-
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
4
+
+
+
+
+
83
75
7?
O
O O 4
+
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
-
+
67
72
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(36 industry components)
Percent rising
AH durable goods industries
Primary metals:
Blast furnaces steel mills
Iron and steel foundries
Fabricated metal products:
31
50
85
42
50
51
50
60
42
47
81
82
86
_
+
+
-+
+
+
_
+
_
_
+
-
+
+
+
4
_
_
+
_
+
_ -
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
-
-
+
+
+
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
4
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
4
-
+
+
+
_
+
+
_-
+
-
+
--
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
4
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
4
4
-
-
+
+
-
4
0
_
4
4
_ _
+
_ _
_
4
-
+
4
4
-
_
4
+
-
4
-
-
4
-
4
4
+ . +
4
4
-
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
4
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
4
-
-
4
-
-
4
+
4
-
+
4
^
4
-
4
-
_
4
+
+
+
- -
+
4
-
+
-
4
+
- -
0
4
4
-
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
„
+
-
-
_ _ -
+
_
+
+ . +
_
_
-
+
+
--
+
+
-
_
+
+
+
+
- -
+
+
+
4
-
_
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
0
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
- - -
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.
+
4
444
-
_
_
Special industry machinery *
53
+
_
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines *
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction mining and material handling *
Metalworking machinery*
...
Miscellaneous equipment * .
6l
- -
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
47
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
NOVEMBER 7966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1966
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Oct.
Sept.
Dec.
Nov.
June
Jan.
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.1
Millions of dollars
06. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 2 - Continued
Electrical machinery
,
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment!
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicle parts
'
\
2,983
2,995
622 653
3,201
3,211
3,462
3,4B7
3,744
r3,603
736
727
783
789
r801
P3,673
p762
(NA)
655
P992
(NA)
733
577
699
579
828
742
890
r8l2
6,853
6,920
5,972
6,165
6,526
6,902
6,639
r5,986
(NA)
r7,546 p6,876
•
Complete aircraftt
'
1
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture total . . . .
Stone clay and glass total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES3
(13 industrial materials components)
Industrial materials price index
Index: 1957-59 = 100
114.8
115.0
115.5
117.1
120.5
118.8
111.7
108.9
106.3
105.8
.623
.075
34.264
1.619
.462
.074
.457
.072
29.792
1.502
.493
.065
29.442
1.519
.498
.063
28.942
1.513
118.4
Dollars
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
Zincflb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib ).
Hides (Ib)
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow (Ib )
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES2
(23 retail store components)
All retail sales
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise).
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
.466
.072
29.918
1.930
.497
.071
29.872
1..874
.506
.070
33.188
1.748
.150
.160
.302
.211
.150
.158
.301
.210
.149
.156
.299
.210
1.743
1.747
1.702
.167
.162
.167
11.523
.250
.074
11.488
.238
.074
11.512
.234
.072
.522
.073
.475
.073
34.804
1.730
35.262
1.791
.148
.629
.075
31.556
1.611
.149
.159
.297
.207
.291
.218
1.725
1.724
1.794
.180
.206
.236
11.558
11.663
.247
.074
.252
.080
.163
.298
.208
.152
.161
11.100
.234
.072
.151
.162
.292
.209
1.824
.227
11.022
.239
.073
30.173
1.570
.151
.156
.222
.217
1.791
.214
11.012
.239
.075
.150'
.144
.222
.214
1.751
.189
10.916
.227
.074
.150
.140
.222
.212
1.648
.164
10.872
.216
.062
.148
.142
.221
.210
1.647
.178
10.872
.214
.053
Millions of dollars
23,753
24,194
24,647
24,816
25,023
25,394
5,097
5,271
5,235
5,432
5,278
5,472
1,814
1,982
223
452
1,825
1,978
220
459
1,810
2,087
235
469
1,875
2,019
209
433
1,879
2,119
243
45J
1,967
2,214
219
487
278
276
280
269
289
295
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
plus ordnance comprise series 99,
NA = Not available.
p = preliminary.
25,362 r25,572 r25,656 p25,667
(NA)
5,436 r5,426 p5,462
1,996 r 1,975 pi, 998
2,201 r2,!82 P2,188
219
P223
234
r480
481
P487
301
r327
P304
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
* Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24. fThese industries
r = revised.
^•Average for November 16, 17, and 18.
Data are seasonally adjusted "by the source agency.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
page
2.) Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
2
3
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis
48
(See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments",
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 7966
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
9-month spans
1966
1966
Diffusion index title and components
<U
^
00
*-
*-
'1.
- Q t o 5 . > » §
r
> * S ? ' o . ^ -
>
• M O f - f i i f s l * i'^ f t 3 ? | ^? 9 |
03
O
S
-S
"S
U-
CO
Q.
S
<t
«T
S
06. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES- Continued
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment * . . . .
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
+ - + + + • Radio and TV
Communication equipmentt
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery**
Transportation equipment:
Motor vehicle parts
+
4 +
+
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraftt.
..
Aircraft parts t
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
__
+ _ + -Furniture, total
_ +
+
Stone, clay, and glass, total . . . . . .
Other durable goods, total
+
+
+
+
+
023. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES2
(13 industrial materials components)
—
Percent rising
Industrial materials price index
62
+
77
™
46
~
31
42
46
§
"5
—>
3
—\
-
§ " 2
<C
+
O
c/o
-
+
gilM^i&sMs^z
+ + + + + + + + + +
+
+
4 - 4 - 4 -
- 0 0
+
T
T
—
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
-H
+
4 - 4 - 4 -
-+
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
- 4 - 4 -
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
- +
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
-
-
-
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
62
27
0
19
-
4
-
0
27
Copper scrap (Ib,)
Lead scrap (Ib )
46
+
4
8
-
46 38 54 54 62 62 54 31 15
+ + + + + + - - -
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+•+
+
+
+
-
- '
-
^tppl cpmn /trin^
Tin Hh 1
Zinc(lb) ..
Burlap (vd )
Pf\lfrt« ^Ik \
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
-
_
+
-
+
4
-
-
0
-
;;; + t + t - ! t :
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
-f
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
96
96
96
91
83
S3 78
78
1C mnrl/nt nttnmnn
Print cloth (yd ) average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib)
+
+
+
-
-
-
+
-
+
-
-
-
-
pncin nnn IK \
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES
(23 retail store components)
Percent rising
All retail sales
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise) . •
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
72
70
48
48
61
+
+
+
-
-
+
-
+
4
•„
+
+
+
_
+
--
+
+
+
+
+
-
- ' +
+
+
+
+
0
61
-
44
+
30
'
+
96
+
-
+
-
.
+
65
-
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
72
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
---
+
+
4+
+ . +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ . +
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ = rising; ot = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
comprise series 24.
tThese industries plus ordnance comprise series 99.
Average for November 16, 17, and 18.
Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded,
85
0
+
+
+
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 7966
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1966
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Sept.
Den,
Nov.
Oct.
June
Jan.
Aug.r
July
Sept.p
Oct.
Millions of dollars
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
Jewelry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
508
535
566
560
570
583
581;
582
57U
(NA)
213
716
389
765
237
220
71*9
380
775
21*6
227
756
366
819
255
2li
735
378
825
2li5
2kO
759
378
896
253
2ii
7k6
397
769
237
228
771
U29
761;
21*3
231
782
, 1*23
769
2li5
235
775
1*31
731;
2l;2
(NA)
(NA)
(WA)
(NA)
(NA)
U,398
26o
1,827
19k
530
U,3U5
269
1,81*3
816
531
1*,509
267
1,860
818
5U3
It, 711*
239
1,838.
828
533
U,6lO
271;
1,907
806
560
U,I*79
292
1,927
8U8
572
1*,1*60
301;
1,918
814;
5U9
U,658
301
1,906
837
551
1*,682
308
1,927
861
563
(NAX
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
» ••
• ••
} -;
Dec.
1966
1966
1965,
Feb.
Jan.
June
Apr.
Mar.
Aug.r
July
Sept.r
Oct?
Thousands of employees
041. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(30 industry components)
All nonagri cultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
:
62,2ia
62,1;69
62,811
63,21*7
63,350
63,983
61;,072
100
5U9
367
516
1,014;
1,020
110
556
372
520
1,055
1,039
1,271;
1,260
1,323
266
31*8
112
563
375
525
1,058
l,0ltf
1,278
1,268
1,314*
269
351
122
51*3
378
515
1,090
1,01*3
1,331
1,320
1,321;
277
350
1,163
73
838
1,229
509
633
553
113
381;
311
1,163
73
810
1,201;
512
639
555
113
386
313
1,169
73
81*3
1,231
511;
•61*1
558
113
387
315
1,171;
71*
81;6
1,230
515
61;2
560
112
390
315
111*
55C
371;
521
1,066
l,0l;9
1,281;
1,297
1,314*
270
353
1,163
7k
Bkl
1,239
518
6U7
559
113
395
319
120
1,216
1,290
258
357
106
557
370
525
1,051
1,029
1,262
1,233
1,296
261
3k3
633
3,33U
U,083
3,378
9.^
635
3,318
l*,09l
3,391
9.618
63U
3,323
1*,1Q5
3,UOU
9.6)n
637
3,10-9
U,109
3,U22
1,256
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
50 Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
Q.*^
550
381
515
1,086 •
1,OU8
1,312
1,327
1,358
276
355
1,166
71*
851;
1,268
525
651;
578
115
U03
316
3,U3l*
632
3,300
1*,1U3
3,U70
Q AO).
0 7),7
595
3,333
l*,nl*
NA = Not available
p = preliminary
61;, 199 6U,159
61;, 351
126
531
380
507
1,091
1,051*
l,3liO
1,350
1,388
277
3W
I2?
528
379
508
1,103
1,057
1,353
1,392
281
31*9
1,11*5
67
8U7
1,233
521
656
576
Ilk
kok
311
l,ll;9
65
8U6
1,21*7
527
657
578
111*
U08
312
629
3,229
1*,167
3,1*71*
626
3,199
U,160
3,1*82
1,165
73
850
1,232
530
656
577
115
U03
307
636
3,297
1*,122
3,U83
Q 77 -3
r = revised
$
382
512
1,100
1,060
1,338
1,353
1,353
278
353
1,170
68
856
1,239
528
659
582
115
U06
312
636
3,251
1*,105
3,U83
0 7ftl
Q 7Ol,
1,31*8
0 flcTif
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Mvmm
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change — Continued
1-month spans
9-month spans
1966
1966
Diffusion index title and components
CZ
ro
—>
,-Q
<D
U_
^*
fli
QO
-1
•*-'
il
O
J
T
O
O
.
T
O
=
~E
=
QJ
cr
•
5
t t ^ ^ < c t o
- i i L ' S i . g ^ d o - ^ .
&
u - s < c s - ^ - ^ < * c o
—
-°
«
^
0.
<C
£
J
TO
TO"
S
Q.
=
0>
§
-i
TO
If
to
1-
"B
O
CO
0
. +
+
z
Q.
OJ
CO
0
o>
O
ro
+
+
+
+
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other appare! stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
... .
Farm equipment dealers
+
4-
4-
0
+
O
+
O
4-
-
+
Pacconnpr par anH nthpr antnmntiv/P Hpjilpr^
+
-
+
4
4-
+
4-
0
O
O
4
-
+
4-
-
4-
d
TO
-0
<D
U
-
O)
m
O
—,
85
85
+
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
(30 industry components)
Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments
Leather and leather products
i
+
4-
+
4-
+
4-
+
4-
4-
4-
+
0
+
0
0
4-
+
4-
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
-
-
+
-
+
4
-
-
4
-
+
-
-
-
-
+
-
-
+
-
-
+
4
+
+
4
-
+
--
4
-
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
QJ
-^
&o
-*-
•+-*
Llr"^^!?^-
£
S
«
92
73
+
+
+
+
_
-
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
-
-
-
0
0
S
77
"
92
+
-
+
+
S
-
48
^
-
^
73
< C O
22
72
+
_
-
+
_
+
+
-
+
-
0
-
-
+
- ' +
-
-
+
-
+
-
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
C=
_Q
—»
u_
nj
^
^
(u
to
<
J-
ro
s
DL
CL>
CO
o
0
£
£
90 95 93
+
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+*
+
+
+
+
O
O
-
+
O
+
O
O
-
O
0
O
-
+
!-
+
+
+
O
+
-
+
+
+
+
4-
4-
0
+
0--
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
_ _
+
-
+
+
+
+
0
-
-
-
-
-
O
-
+
o
ro
1
95 92
+ +
+
+
+
+
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
1
87
+
+
85
+
+
SS 73 73
+ +
+ + +
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
3
LO-
+
+
+
+
+
4+
j-
+
+
+
1966
4-
4-
+
+
1966
1^
+
+
6-month spans
,_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
TO
+
4-
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
4-
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
0
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
H
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Rptai 1 traHp
= rising; o = unchanged;
0
+
1-month spans
+
4-
Contract construction . . . .
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Petroleum and related products
-
+
+
+
+
+
Dec-June
4\ 4-
~?
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
-
--
+
.+
+
+
+
+
4-
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
Jewelry stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
+
- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
51
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOV™B« ,9M bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1965
1966
1966
Diffusion index title and components
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
June
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.p
3,095
9,609
2,601
8,328
3,100
r9,647
2,610
r8,324
r3,099
r9,648
r2,594
r8,326
3,104
9,700
2,589
8,362
July
Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS^Con.
Finance insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
3,049
9,329
2,397
7,983
3,052
9,363
2,423
8,012
3,051
9,410
3,064
9,463
2,45,1
8,070
2,477
8,153
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1
(24 industry components)
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery except electrical
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods beverages and tobacco
Minerals:
Qoal
Metal stone and earth minerals
Metal mining
3,068
9,484
2,501
8,204
3,090
9,549
2,571
8,314
Index: 1957-59 = 100
r!49.0
rl50.6
126.5 rl31 ! 9
156.3, r!57.7
r!52.4
r!53.7
r!53.9
156.5
157.2
r!58.2
r!58.1
158.6
r!38.*3
rl6l.6
rl41.8
rl6l.7
r!42.4
161.4
r!48.6
rl6l.8
r!48!6
rl62.1
rl48!9
161.7
r!46.1
rl6l.5
143
164
174.0
174! 5
rl84.1
1-178.9
r 166.1
rl65.9
171.9 • 174.6
180.3
rl86.0
167.1
176.5
184.7
r!89.1
166.0
177.0
rl86>!7
r!93.4
rl66.3
rl77.4
r!88.0
rl90.7
1-169.6
r!79.6
mi 4.
169.2
r!73.5
rl60.4
162.2
171.9
rl77.9
rl63.0
rl66.8
r!79.2
rl64.1
169.4
rHO.*6
125.4
rl42! 4
125.6
rl42! 2
126.5
143! 6
129.3
rHl!9
130.7
141.0
122.9
138!5
119.9
1-140.6
rill. 3
14o! 4
pill. 3
188
191
175
182
129
140
(NA)
r!66.*2
155.5
165.4
151.2
rl67.7
155.3
168.' 8
156.8
169! 6
r!57.2
174.6
159.3
169 .'7
157.2
rl75.3
rl58.7
173 .*3
r!57.1
173
158
rHO.l
148.5
113.9
rl40.4
rl45.6
rill. 4
140.7
r!48.4
rl09.7
r-142.0
rl49.4
rl!2.2
rl43! 5
r!50.3
rll5.5
144! o
152.0
114.2
r!43.4
r!49.7
111.1
r!42!3
PH8.4
P109.9
r!39.8
pl40.8
(NA)
(NA)
rl49! 3
134.2
rl50.6
r!36.0
148.5
r!38.6
15(X2
r!39.8
15o! 2
rl38.6
154.1
144.1
156!2
144.8
r!53.1
r!45.3
r!82.3
127.8
181.3
rl83.1
130.5
pl85.8
r-185.5
125.5
rl84.7
r!87.8
125.6
rl84.5
r!87.7
127.7
r!86.9
r!92.7
127.7
184.1
r!94. 5
126.9
182.7
r!94.'3
r!28.5
P197.1
r!25.4
117.1
r!26.2
119.6
r!26.8
126.7
r!27.5
126.8
r!27.8
115.8
127.1
122.7
r!28.1
116.5
r!29.*4
P119.9
p!52!Z
r!44.4
r!83,5
P193.7
P130.3
(NA)
r!28.4
p!29.1
(NA)
139
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
147
(NA)
144
184
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
128
(NA)
(NA)
1-118.9
rllS.O
114.4
rl!3.5
111.2
115.0
117.7
rll6.5
85.3
1-117.0
120.7
119.3
120.8
119.2
120.7
119.5
114.7
120.0
120.6
138.2
133!4
135.5
130.8
135.6
134! 5
137.1
r!39!7
130.9
134! 2
133.3
134! 6
133.7
r!32!6
r!33.8
pl28!5
p!33.7
121
120
130
(NA)
(NA)
104.1
104.2
104.9
105.2
105.2
105.7
105.9
106.4
106.4
106.1
103.1
98.3
101.8
101.7
103.9
98.3
102.1
101.8
104.3
98.5
102.1
102.2
105.7
98.4
102.1
102.4
108.2
98.6
102.2
102.1
107.0
98.8
102.5
105.5
99.0
102.9
102.2
105.1
99.1
102.8
102.5
rl05.4
r99.2
103.0
102.6
105.1
99.7
103.1
102.5
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING 2
(23 manufacturing industries)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
102.2
= preliminary.
r = revised.
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency. NA=Not available.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2 , )
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
52 Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
bed «<>«*«, ,,66
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
Diffusion index title and components
1-month spans
6-month spans
1966
1966
li I t i f f IS!f lit f i l l If
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS-Con.
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
+
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
O
71
71
88
65
58
88
46
62
+
+
+
+
+
O
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(24 industry components)
Percent rising1
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
C!ayr glass, and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
+
+
+
4>
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
•+
+
+
'
_
_
+
+
35
42
__
58 73
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-I-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
- o N A
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
- - - -
- _
..+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
--
+
+
+
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+ __
90 100 96 92 88 71 81
+
+ +
+
+ + +
-+
-
+
88
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
NA
+
+
+
+
+
Nondurable goods:
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-NA
- - N A N A
- N A N A
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-NA
o N A N A
+ N A N A
+
-
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
_
+
- -
+
+
+ + +
+
- - _ +
+
NA
+ NA
NANA
+
+
+
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
— NA
+ NANA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+ +
+ + NA
+ +NA
+ NANA
+ +
+ +
+ NA
-NANA
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
_
_
+
+
--+ +
NA
- NA
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
-
- NA
- NA
63
80
72
74
72
74
78
52
50
74
87
89
89
96
89
96
91
83
65
+
'
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
*
•-
paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods beverages and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
- - N A
o
Minerals:
Qoal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
-+
+
+ NA
+
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING
(23 manufacturing industries)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
-.
+
00
+
+
+
44
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
-
+
0
+
+ . -
+ Arising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
NA^Not available.
•'•The percent rising is based on 24 industry components.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for
the current month are rounded.
53
!*•«
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
N0m,.i, tttt
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1966
1966
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
June
July
Aug.
Sept r
Oct.p
123.6
lOii.3
111.6
110.3
106.2
99.2
100.6
120.9
120.6
10U.2
112.6
110.8
106.2
99.2
100.5
121.8
119.7
lOii. 3
112.5
111.2
106.9
99.3
100. U
119.9
119.9
10U.5
112.7
111.6
107.3
99- U
101.ii
118.U
111.0
109.9
103.ii
107.0
89.8
10U.8
113.7
109.9
103.8
106.8
89.8
IOU.8
103.5
98.2
101.6
95. li
120.8
113-2
109.8
103. U
106.U
89.0
10U.9
103. h
98.3
101.5
9ii.9
119.8
111.7
109.9
103-3
105.7
88.5
10ii.9
103.0
97.9
101.9
9ii.U
117.8
Index: 1957-59-100
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING^Continued
Durable goods-Continued
117.1
102.0
109.6
106. U
105-6
96.5
100.5
111,1
Fabricated nonstructural metal products
General purpose machinery and eouipment
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products
"
109.8
107.9
100.9
105.5
91,9
10U.3
100.9
97.7
97.7
•93-U
111;. 6
118. li
102.2
109.9
106.6
105.5
97.1
100.5
112.5
109.5
108.3
100.7
105.6
91. h
10li.7
101.1
97.5
97.0
93. k
116,6
119.9
102.7
110.1
106.8
105.6
97.8
100. U
115.1
121.0
103-U
110.6
107.3
105.7
98.3
100.3
113.0
122.5
103.5
110.7
108.6
105.7
98.5
100.3
113.0
lll.ii
109.9
106.0
98.7
100.5
117.7
111.9
108.3
101.1
105.6
91.1
lot. 9
101.1
97.5
97.9
9U.O
118.8
112.1
109.6
101.5
105.8
111.8
109.6
102.2
106.2
90.5
105.0
102.2
97. k
98.6
95.1;
121.2
110.6
109.8
103.1
106.5
89.8
10ii.8
103.0
97.6
99.6
95-9
122.7
90.7
105.0
101.6
97. h
97.5
9k- 1
119.3
123.3
lOii.l
103.5
98.1
99.6
95.7
122.2
p = preliminary.
r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. (See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
54
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Basic data for components of diffusion index D19, Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks, and of diffusion index D5, Initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, are not available from the Census Bureau.
beef NO™,** ,966
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1
6-month spans
month spans
1966
Diffusion index title and components
^
c
-°
"S i j!
& M t
f
L3
TO
1966
>,
«
^
=
^
o.
<C
^
ro
E
^
7
«
§
—»
^ -SL -G
<: £ o
^
^=5
^
to
=
<
"S.
gcx3
-
+
^_
,.
fi\
TOOJ^
0.
™
^
—
=3
S " " o
= I -^
- ^ <*? O gO O£ Z :1O ^
- ^ L
_
11
S
<c
^
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Mrtnfprmnc mot ale
Pshrir?itpH nnn^tntrtnrfll rnpffll nrnrliirte
fipnpra! nnrnn^p marhinprv anrl pnninmpnt
-
4
Miscellaneous machinery
Flprtriral marhinprv anri pnninmpnt
4
-
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
0
4
-
4
-
4
-
0
-
-
-0
+
-
+
-
4-
4-
-
0
4-
4-
4-
4-
+
0
0
0
-
Apparel
4-
4-
o
4-
Pntn nanor anrl allipH nrnHnrt?
4-
0
0
4 - 0
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
0
4-
-
+
Motor veh i cl es
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
4-
44
-
4
44 -
-
40
-
4
0
-
-
0
O
-
+
0
+
+
+
-
Manmarlp fihpr fpvtilp nrnrlnrtc
*•
0
4-
Pptmlpnm nrnHnrt^ rpfinprl
Pnhhpr anrl rnhhor nrnHiirtQ
O
+
t-
0
4-
-
0
0
+
0
0
4
-
4
-
-
CD
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES,
500 COMMON STOCKS^
(23 industry components)2
A
j1
f
13
«3
|
L
<S:
o
0
Percent rising 3 ..
Index of 500 stock prices
Ik h9
+
-
Coal bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cisarette manufacturers)
Textile products
4-
-
4-
4-
Panor
4-
4-
Publ ishing
Chemicals
4-
4-
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steel
Metal fabricating
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
lU 61;
+
-
DO
i—
j_,
1 ^
$
t
S
23
6
U
38
4-
4-
-
-
4-
4-
-
-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
4-
4-
-
4-
/*
i
6h
-
-
_
+
+
-
-
-
+
_
_
+
_
_
+
_
_
_
.
4
4
-
4
-
-
4
4
4-
4
CD
60
68
-
4
+
4-
4
-
4
-
-
i»
'
lao
70
^2
4
-
-
i
38
ill;
4
"S.
-_.
= S " t j
< C c ^ o
/"
('.
4
-
-
4
i
^f
22 12
-
-
-
6
-
-
+
;
Electronics
25
OJ
* - - °
ro^;
5-,c:
>-.
E
< D ^ S - c o = - =
™
U _ ^ < C S —,
=
4
4-
-
-
1966
>t
i* 1 f i I
U
4
9-month spans
1966
|£
-
4-
1-month spans
: f
4
-
4-
-
44
-
4-
4-
4-
4_
_
_
_
4.
4-
-
4-
4-
4
-
-
_
4
-
4
-
4
-
+
4
-
4
-
4
-
+
4
-
-
4
4
4
-
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
4
-
-
_
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
-
4
-
_
-
-
_
4
-
_
4
_
4
4
_
+_
4
4
-
_
4
_
-
-
-
-
-
-
+
4-
Antnmnhi IP^
Radio and television broadcasters
l-
4-
-
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
4-
Rptait ^tnrp^ rnmnn^itp
4-
Life insurance
_
4-
4-
+
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
4
-
_
•= rising; o = unchanged;- = falling.
are not seasonally adjusted.
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
3
Based on 77 components.
2
representing an additional 23 of
55
NOVfu>c,
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
,,M
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS— Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
Diffusion index title and components
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS 1
(26 area components)
Percent rising
47 labor market areas
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (19)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson (20)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
9-month spans
1966
1966
111! 1 1 1 f f i! i | f { ! | f f l
38
U5
83
-
+
+
£3
1|6
-
+
4-
+
+
-
-
+
-
+
-
-+
-
+
-
57
4-
-
--
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (2,3)
Kansas City 08)
Milwaukee (15)
Minneapolis (13)
St Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (16)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (22)
1-month spans
1?
72
81
_
4-
4.
36
-
+
+
_
+
_
+
-
+
_
-
+
_
+
+
+
+
_
+
+
-
+
.
--
Q9
QA
Q9
7li
)><
_
+
-
+
-
-
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
-
+
+
+
-
4-
-
_
Aft
77
7O
4 - 4 -
4-
+
-
6*3
+
4-
+
+
70
+
4 - 4 - 4 -
+
+
4 - 4 - 4 4-
—
—
+
+
—
—
4 - 4 -
4-
-
4 , 4 . 4 .
—
—
—
+
+
+
--
+
+
_
4.
4.
4.
4.
4-
4.
4-
_
_
4 , 4 . 4 .
4}*
+
+
i
*
-
+
+
4-
-
+
+
- Arising; o = unchanged: + = falling. The si^isare reversed becausethis series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises.
Data used are tor the week including the 12th of the month.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
(Sec
"Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas.
Directions of
change are shown separately for only the 26 largest areas.
The number in parentheses indicates the size rank for each labor
market area.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
56
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Section THREE
charts and tables
REFERENCE
CYCLES
Current expansion compared with expansions in
earlier business cycles
PERCENT CHANGES FOR CURRENT AND EARLIER
EXPANSIONS
Percent of reference peak levels
Percent change from reference trough levels
57
CHART
NOVEMBER 1966
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES
Percent
PERIOD COVERED
—,
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough:
-Reference trough dates
Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
—— May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Percent
140
Reference trough dates
23. Industrial
130
materials prices
17. Ratio, price to
120
-i 110
unit labor cost, mfg
110
105
90
100«
95
24. New orders, mach.
and equip, indus.
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
200
190
180
170
160
200
190
180
170
160
150
140
150
140
130
130
120
120
110
110
100*
100*
90
90
iilunilmi.i inn
-12 -6
80
Mill
0 +6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36+42 +48 +54 +60 +66
Months from reference troughs
-12 -6
(
+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36
+60 +66
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
Reference peak level. "^T Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
58
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
OPoint at which a new reference trough was reached.
bed
NOVEMBER 7966
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
CHART
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
^ n T rTTT r r T""i
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948
to Aug. 1954
(Reference trough: Oct.
1949)
July 1953
to Apr. 1958
(Reference trough: Aug.
1954)
July 1957
to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr.
May 1960
to present (Reference trough:
Feb.
r
Reference trough dates
1958)
1961)
43.
Unemployment rate, total
(percent unemployed, inverted)1
41. Employees in nonogri.
establishments
Percent
115
55. Wholesale prices exc.
farm prod, and foods
110
105
100
95
-12-6
0
+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60 +66
Months from reference troughs
-12-6
0
+6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60+66
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc/Lines represent actual data rattier than percentages of reference peak levels.
*Reference peak level.
•^ Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
59
CHART
NOVEMBER 7966
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
Percen
PERIOD COVERED
— 4th Q. 1948 to 3rd Q. 1954 (Reference trough: 4th Q. 1949)
2nd Q. 1953 to 2nd Q. 1958 (Reference trough:
3rd Q. 1957 to 1st Q. 1961 (Reference trough:
.
2nd Q. 1960 to present (Reference trough:
T""l
I 1 ""!
3rd Q. 1954)
2nd Q. 1958)
1st Q. 1961)
Percent
I
61. Business expenditures,
Reference trough dates
new plant and equipment
67.
Bank rates on
short-term business loans
^90
H I M UNI I ii i i i l i i m l i i m l m i 1 1
-12 -6
0
+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60 +66
-12
Months from reference troughs
-6
0
+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60+66
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest quarter in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this quarter and comparable quarters of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. O Latest data anticipated.
Reference peak level. ^ Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak,
60FRASER
Digitized for
OPnint at which a new reference trough was reached.
bed
NOVEMBER 7966
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
CHART
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
PERIOD COVERED
:
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough:
Aug. 1954)
---
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough:
Apr, 1958)
.
May 1960 to present (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
|"'"|'»»|l""|"»'|'""|
|
|
|
|
|
Reference trough dates
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and product
acct. (ann. rate, biL dol.)1
-1+20
| I I I I I | I M I I | M I | p ercent
+ 15
+ 10
62.
Labor cost
per unit of output, mfg.
+5
-5
-10
+12
98.
Change in money supply and time deposits
(ann. rate, percent. 6-term moving avg.)1
+ 10
64,
+8
Book value of mfrs'.
inventories
+6
+4
+2
-2
-12-6
0
+6
+12+18 +24 +30 +38 +42 +48 +54 +60 +66
Months from reference troughs
-12-6
0
+6
+ 1 2 + 1 8 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60 +66
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.HJnes represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
*Reference peak level, if Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
NOVEMB£R }966
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
reference
trough *
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion beginning in-
Feb.
1961
Apr,
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
68th
67th
6?th
68th
103.6
127.0
197.2
157.9
101.8
100.9
103.7
129.3
97.8
76.0
62.3
122.8
102.3
96.5
131.0
181;. 3
113.6
11*6.0
225.9
251.6
68.3
51*. 1*
53.3
65.6
89.8
131.0
109.1*
35.9
91.2
21.7
17.5
71*. 7
(NA)
31.3
8.5
173*7
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
7. Private nonfarm housing starts.
9. Construction contracts, 2commercial and
industrial floor space
13. New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
68th
66.1
128.3
93-9
11*1.8
33.7
68.6
15.7
55. U
208.1*
6? th
6?th
68th
168.3
101.3
7l*.l
130.1
135.0
55.8
133.0
179.6
55.2
156.8
156.5
72.8
82.1
1*3.3
(NA)
26.0
51.7
(NA)
20.1
97.7
11*0.2
88.3
100.0
78.6
1*6.3
77.7
16.1*
1,6 Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing . .
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29. New building permits private housing
66th
68th
68th
68th
68th
68th
173.7
103.6
139.7
102.1
161*. 9
68.6
13U.2
99.2
152.9
91*. 1
11*2.3
11*0.6
132.6
98.9
229. 1*
107.8
11*9.2
95.8
119.1;
98.6
260.2
81*. 9
175.6
11*6.6
211*. 0
(NA)
72.1*
112.1*
(NA)
(NA)
20.6
(NA)
1*3.1*
7U.7
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
86,3
61*. 3
(NA)
(NA)
75-0
(NA)
276.1
71.0
(NA)
(NA)
90.0
(NA)
157.1
55.1*
(NA)
(NA)
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments . . .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted) 3 . .
47 Industrial production
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)
68th
68th
68th
66th
118.2
+1.3
114*. 3
11*7.5
108.1
-1.3
121*. 3
135.7
108.3
-2.6
116.8
136.9
112.5
-0.1;
11*9.5
132.6
(NA)
199.3
216.6
88.9
-17.1
88.7
79.6
75-9
(NA)
88.6
60.9
92.6
(NA)
108.2
120. U
86.1*
(NA)
121. 5
(NA)
50 GNP in 1958 dot lars(Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except N.Y.
52 Personal income
...»
54 Sales of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
66th
68th
68th
68th
132.6
178.8
11*8.0
139.3
123.5
157.2
135.lv
121*. 3
117.7
153.2
138.1
132.2
132.5
162.5
11*3.8
13^.2
(NA)
202.0
216.1*
11*8.5
97.1
60.1
79.9
85.0
87.1
62.1
6 3 .2
67.6
123.5
125.9
116.8
107.8
(NA)
115.5
(NA)
119.1*
68th
loU.o
101.5
111. I*
110.3
113.5
88.1
72.5
82.8
61.0
63d
69th
165.6
175.1
106.0
112.7
119.6
129.2
115.2
133.2
(NA)
(NA)
1*8.1*
50.6
20.3
38.8
123-2
89.9
69.0
61.1*
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . . . 68th
6?th
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
67th
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q) . . . 66th
101.2
137-8
177.9
117.8
102.6
11U.3
160.7
103.5
112.8
121. U
182.7
11*3-2
110.5
11*7.9
300. U
131*. 8
11*7.2
152.2
52.2
(NA)
88.3
93.9
115-5
51.3
59.1
(NA)
(NA)
97.2
8U.5
(NA)
(NA)
102.0
72.2
(NA)
(NA)
82.3
-0.5
+13.3
-U.56
+0.6
+U.26
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
iia.s
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a Actual
b Anticipated 4
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
3
95. Surplusordeficit, Fed. income and prod. acct.(O)
98. Change in money supply and time deposits 3 5
66th
66th
-5.3
+3.02
+5.50
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance* (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 19, 23, 41, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the
1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference peak month. Similarly, the reference peak quarter is used as the percentage base for
quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 1, 2, 3, 6,7, 9,13,14, 17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months
centered on the reference peak month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had
been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates.
NA*Not available.
^•Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CTCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference peak levels.
^Anticipated
expenditures (4th quarter 1966) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries.
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
62
bed NOVE«.» ,«6
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
reference
trough1
H
Percent change from reference trough of expansion beginning tn-
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
2 Accession rate manufacturing
3 Layoff rate manufacturing (inverted)
6 New orders durable goods industries
+5.0
68th
67th
67th
68th
+5.2
+17.5
+130.6
+68.7
+12.1
+79.6
+U6.5'
+0.3
+!*.?
-7.2
+37.1
+3.1
+8.7
+95.2
+112.8'
+29.5
+63.1*
(NA)
(NA)
-1.5
+32.8
+!*!*.!*
+21*1.1*
-8.3
+79-2
+51*. 3
-61*.0
-0.9
+1.1
-1*3.5
-33.1*
+1*.8
+172.2
(NA)
+11*6.0
+1.2
-61*.l
(NA)
-81*. 9
-l*l*.l
+112.8
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial floor space ^
13 New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
68th
-3U.O
+32.2
-19.8
67th
67th
68th
+80.7
+9.0
-21*. 3
+65-5
+141.1;
+37.3
+52.1
-1*2.1
+81.7
+19.7
-38.0
'+66,1;
-1*9.7
(NA)
+117.1*
-30.9
(NA)
-76.9
-5.9
+52.3
+27.2
+35.0
-12.8
+70.0
+7.1*
-2.6
16 Corporate profits after taxes (0)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing. .
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks* »
23 Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29 New building permits private housing
66th
68th
68th
68th
68th
68th
+98.0
+5.?
+2U- 1
+7.0
+73.9
-29.3
+72.8
+5.7
+75-2
+8.3
+61.2
+38.3
+0.7
+81.1*
+7.8
+60.2
-19.9
+1*6.1*
+0.7
+150.3
+13-0
+100.3
-8.1*
(NA)
(NA)
+15.3
+66.1
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+109.8
+80,0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)'
(NA)
-31*. 2
-3U.O
(NA)
(NA)
+39-3
(NA)
+165.1
-15.3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+112.1*
+32.5
(NA)
(NA)
+12.5
+1*8.0
(NA)
+191.7
+11*5.9
+30.0
+8.3
+83.9
+58.0
-21.0
(NA)
-5-9
-39.3
+6.6
(NA)
+31-7
+23.2
(NA)
+77.8
+1*1.8
+3U-8
+57.7
+62.3
+50.5
-11*. 8
-1*2.9
-37.3
-32.1*
+23*8
+29.9
+16.7
+9.9
+1*2.2
+1*9.0
+1*7.2
+21*. 7
-25.8
+38.3
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments . . 68th
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted)3. 68th
68th
47 Industrial production
66th
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
+20.5
+2.9
+53.1
+1*7.9
+1.9
+10*. 6
+38.2
+12.1
+0.9
+28.5
+37.9
+18.5
+
3-7
+51*. 6
+51*. 7
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
51. Bank debits all SMSA's except N Y
52 Personal income
54. Sale's of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods .
,
66th
68th
68th
68th
+3U.5
+71*. 6
+1*6.6
+1*3-1
+27.9
+62.2
+35.1
+27.3
+20.1*
+50.8
+38,1
+32.8
+3l*.7
+69.2
+50.8
+31*. 9
68th
+l*.l
+2.0
+12.3
+16.2
+20.1
+21.6
-22.1
-9.3
-3.6
63d
69th
+77.5
+87.7
+31.9
+U0.3
+25.2
+35.2
+1*1*. 0
+66.5
(NA)
(NA)
+182.1
+191*. 9
-76.8
-55.8
+76.5
+28.9
+101.0
+78.9
68th
6?th
67th
66th
-0.5
+39.3
+72.0
+26.8
-5.0
+18.7
+59.1*
+19.9
+9.7
+29.9
+76.7
+5o.o
+11*. U
+58. h
+139.9
+3^.3
+1*1.8
+60.8
+20.5
-1*1*. o
(NA)
+58.1*
+11*1.6
-3U.1
-1*0.0
(NA)
(NA)
+1.0
-17.8
(NA)
(NA)
+16.3
+19.8
(NA)
(NA)
-23.7
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and prod. acct.(Q)3 66th
66th
98. Change in money supply and time deposits3 5
+5.2
-2.1*8
+11*. 5
-0.56
+12.1
-7-56
+6.9
+3.1*1*
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+1141.9
+11*3-0
+79.1*
+25.1*
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a. Actual
b. Anticipated^
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. . .
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). . .
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
NOTE: For series with a 'months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of T or T (series 19, 23, 41, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the
1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference trough month. Similarly, the reference trough quarter is used as the percentage base for
quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). Forsertes with an MCD of "3" or more (series 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months
centered on the reference trough month is.used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had
been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st .column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates.
NA-Not available.
on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CTCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series .
Measures are differences from the reference trough levels .
^Anticipated
expenditures (4th quarter 1966) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries.
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
63
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Business cvcle reference dates
Trough
December 1854. . .
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870...
March 1879
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Cyc le
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
. June 1857
October 1860
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
March 1882
(X)
18
32
18
65
30
22
46
T8
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
_L2.
99
54
-=i£t
50
52
101
40
30
35
42
39
' 8
36
(X)
40
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899 ... .
September 190,2
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
4?
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907 . .
January 1910
January 1913
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
46
43
35
51
*28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926. . . .
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May 1960
13
9
9
35
25
(X)
58
44
34
48
34
00
19
15
, 10
30
35
36
49
50
46
^
9
2
54
3
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles9 1854-1961
8 cycles , 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
60
W\
46
4
46
48
42
5
6
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean
War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
Z
3
5
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
2
4
6
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
65
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial ......
13. New "business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23, Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus...
29. New building permits, private housing
Dec. '60 Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21
Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 July '24
Sep. '39 Dec. '34 Dec. '26 June '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) Oct. '23
Apr. '38 June '32
June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 June '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Mar. »21
Jan. '21
(NA)
Aug. '21
July '21
(NA)
(NA)
'61
«61
'61
'60
'60
'60
'60
June
Nov.
Mar.
Dec.
Apr.
Feb.
Feb.
'58
'57
'58
'57
'58
'58
'58
(NSC) Aug.
(NSC) Feb.
Mar. '54 July
Sep. '53 June
Feb. '54 June
Mar. '54 Apr.
Sep. '53 Jan.
Feb. '61
May '61
Feb. '61
4thQ '60
IstQ '61
(NSC)
Dec. '60
Apr. '61
May
July
Apr.
IstQ
IstQ
Feb.
May
Mar.
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
Aug.
Sep.
Apr.
2ndQ
2ndQ
Apr.
Sep.
Jan.
»54 Oct. '49
'54 Oct. '49
'54 Oct. »49
'54 4thQ '49
'54 2ndQ '49
'54 July '49
'54 Oct. '49
(NSC)
'54
June
June
May
2ndQ
IstQ
May
June
May
'38 Mar.
'38 May
'38 July
'38 IstQ
'38 3rdQ
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
'33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21
(NSC) 4thQ '21
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
'32
'33 4thQ '26 2ndQ '24 2ndQ '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
(NSC) Mar. '22
(NSC)
'33
3rdQ
June
Aug.
2ndQ
'58
'59
'58
'58
IstQ
Sep.
Sep.
IstQ
'55
'55
'54
'55
4thQ
July
Jan.
IstQ
3rdQ
June
June
2ndQ
'38
'40
'39
'40
IstQ
July
May
3rdQ
'33 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 4thQ '21
(NSC) Apr. '22
(NSC
'33
(NA)
(NA)
'33
(NA)
'31 4thQ '27 4thQ '24 3rdQ '22
May
Jan.
Jan.
Oct.
Dec.
Nov.
Dec.
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43, Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
54. Sales of retail stores
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.
Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. Sep.
June
Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ
'61
'61
T
61
'61
'49
'50
'50
'50
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg... June
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial
June
13 . New business incorporations
Apr.
June
17. Ratio, price "to unit labor cost, mfg
July
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23. Industrial materials prices
,
Nov.
24 . New orders , machinery and equipment Indus . . July
.
Nov.
29. New building permits, private housing
'59 Nov. '55 Mar. '53
(NSC) Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22
'46 July '37 Jan. »29 Sep. '25
'46 Dec. '36 Jan. '29 Oct. '25
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'48
(NSC)
'48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
'48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29 Nov. '25
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'48
(NA)
'47
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Aug. '22 Dec. '19
Apr. '23 Dec. '19
(NA)
(NA)
Mar. '23 July '19
Mar. '23 Apr. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'60
'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'58
Mar.
Feb.
Oct.
July
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.
'56
'56
'55
'56
'55
'56
'55
(NSC) Mar.
(NSC) July
Jan. '51 June
Jan. '53 June
Feb. '51 Jan.
Feb. '51 Apr.
July '50 Oct.
Apr. '60
Feb. '60
Jan. '60
2ndQ '60
IstQ '60
(NSC)
May '60
Apr. '60
Mar.
Mar.
Feb.
3rdQ
3rdQ
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
June
July
July
2ndQ
2ndQ
Oct.
July
Mar.
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
Sep. '48 July
Jan. '48 July
July '48 May
4thQ '48 3rdQ
4thQ '48 3rdQ
Oct. '48 June
Aug. '48 May
(NSC) Sep.
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
3rdQ
Mar.
Sep.
4thQ
'57 3rdQ
'58 Mar.
'57 Sep.
'57 4thQ
'53
'54
'53
'53
4thQ
Nov.
Jan.
2ndQ
'37 2ndQ '29 4thQ '26 2ndQ '23 2ndQ '20
(NSC) Oct. '23 Nov. '20
(NSC)
'37
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'37 Jan. '30
'32 3rdQ '29 4thQ '26 3rdQ '23 4thQ '20
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Industrial production
49. GNP in current dollars (Q)
,
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
54 . Sales of retail stores
Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '29 Mar. '27 May '23 Feb. '20
(NSC)
(NA)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Sep. '29
(NSC)
(NSC) July '20
Sep. '29
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.
Business expenditures,, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. Jan.
Book value of manufacturers' inventories
Sep.
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ
'60
'61
'60
'59
'48
'48
'49
'49
3rdQ
Dec.
Oct.
3rdQ
NOTE: Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough or peak as distinguished
from reference dates which are those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows,
for selected indicators, the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
AppendixC.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part 1.—Average Percentage Changes
i/c
Monthly series
Period
covered
I
CI
C
1/5
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
Avg. workweek, prod, worker sf mfg
Jan.1 53- June '66
.47
Accession rate, manufacturing
Jan. '53- June '66 4.62
Nonagri. placements, all industries... Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.83
Layoff rate manufacturing
Jan. '53- June '66 8.75
Temporary layoff, all industries
Jan. '53-Sep, '65 17.13
Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.95
6. New orders, durable goods industries.. Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 3.76
1.
2.
30.
3
4.
5.
.41
4.38
1.34
7.96
16.59
.18
1.44
1.09
3.23
3.64
2.30
3.04
1.23
2.47
4.55
3
4
2
3
5
.76
.79
.63
.76
.96
2.21
2.21
2.11
2.27
1.57
1.40
1.50
1.52
1.53
1.42
10.73
11.50
7.24
10.73
6.61
4.18
3.76
3.97
4.82
2.69
4.38
3.33
2.17
1.51
2.02
2.20
2
3
.95
.66
1.69
1.81
1.42' 12.67
1.58
8.44
3.97
4.41
24. New orders, mach. and equip. Indus.... Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 4.18
3.81
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial
Jan '53-Sep '65 9.30
9.17
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 4.69
4.39
7. Private nonf arm housing starts
May '59-Sep. '65 7.16
7.08
29. New building permits, private housing. Jan. '53- June1 66 3.70
3.31
38. Index of net business formation
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 .79
.60
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65 2.49
13. New business incorporations
2.18
14 Liabilities of business failures
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 18.74 18.24
15. Large business failures
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '6512.31 12.12
1.52
2.51
3
.88
1.83
1.60
10.86
3.41
.97 9.41
3.08
1.43
.89 7.91
2.54
1.30
.53 1.15
2.18
1.00
1.70 10.72
7.84
1.54
6
4
6
3
2
3
6
6
1
.82
,66
.78
C1)
C1)
1.60
1.88
1.38
1.87
2.71
1.92
1.49
1.55
1.48 12.67
9.50
1.71
1.38 15.20
1.55 12.38
6.61
1.63
7.24
1.63
8.94
1.39
1.46 11.69
3.00
3.39
2.63
3.06
4.08
3.19
2.23
2.58
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.. Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.51
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Jan. '5^-Sep. '65 2.49
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 6.46
26. Buying policy production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer
Tan 1ST ^Jo-n t AS
5.27
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries
Jan ' 53-Sep ' 65 7.47
23. Industrial materials prices
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.31
C)
.84
1
C)
.42
1.68
.23
1.64
1.83
1.02
3.
2
.81
.57
2.14
2.37
1.60
1.58
7.17
9.50
4.41
3.97
5.24
2.84
1.85
3
.76
2.37
1.62
7.60
3.57
4.77
1.98
2.41
3
.77
1.88
1.63
8.94
3.49
5.79
1.04
4.00
.73
1.45
1.41
2
2
.95
.99
3.17
2.49
1.85
2.11
8.94
11.69
3.77
3.87
.31
.36
3.92
5.39
.14
.30
3.04
4.55
.27
.20
2.19
2.66
.52
1.50
1.39
1.71
1
2
2
2
.52
.80
.72
.91
5.19
2.01
2.54
3.41
1.50 17.89
1.60 25.83
1.60
8.16
1.56
7.82
5.19
3.42
3.95
4.00
4.19
3.00
2.19
1.87
3.29
2.30
.67
.81
1
1
.67
.81
4.90
3.10
1.75
1.39
7.60
8.94
4.90
3.10
Industrial production
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.02
Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 1.57
Personal income
Jan.'53-June'66
.53
Labor income in mining, mfg., constr.. Jan. '53- June '66
.84
r
Sales of retail stores
Jan. '53-Sep. 65
.97
Wholesale prices except farm products
and foods
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.16
.54
1.50
.27
.50
.83
.76
.64
.46
.64
.44
.71
2.34
.58
.78
1.88
1
3
1
.1
3
.71
.58
.58
.78
.70
3.62
1.65
4.88
2.93
2.08
1.67 11.69
1.50 30.40
1.56 23.00
1.56 14.64
1.57 15.20
3.62
4.29
4.88
2.93
4.84
.09
.13
.71
1
.71
3.90
1.54
.51
.53
.37
.19
.30
.49
1.26
.38
2
1
.72 2.54
.38 10.13
1.57
1.63
3.81
7.86
21.71 10.13
.56
.84
.33
.11
.51
.82
.65
.14
1
1
.65 8.94
.14 11.69
1.49
1.63
13.82 8.94
21.71 11.69
4.25
4.42
3.80
3.87
27.42 27.34
13.86 13.59
24.51 24.35
.82 5.16
.60 6.37
2.16 12.68
1.26 10.77
8.28
2.94
6
6
6
6
6
1.57
1.59
1.43
1.40
1.63
1.45
1.43
1.43
1.42
1.57
8.00
14.87
8.92
6.64
8.44
22.53 22.53
5.00
6.70
1.31
1.65
1.31
1.58
2.08
2.46
.07
.11
1.92 11.72
1.12
4.46
.93 1.41
.82 1.60
1.90
1.10
.65
.11
6
2
2
3
3
1
C1)
C11)
t)
C11)
C)
C1)
1.57
.73 2.53
.98 2.76
.74 2.54
.87 2.58
.65 10.00
1.48
1.77
2.00
1.85
1.88
1.92
2.53
9.50
6.61
3.68
8.00
3.68
12.71 3.78
3.66
8.00
5.56 10,00
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
4-1.
42.
43.
40
45.
Employees in nonagri. establishments.. Jan. '53- June* 66
Total nonagri cultural employment
Jan. '53-Dec. '65
Unemployment rate, total
Jan. '53-Dec. '65
Unemployment rate, married males
Nov. '54-Dec. '65
Average weekly insured unemployment
rate , State
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
46. Help-wanted advertising
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
47.
51.
52
53.
54.
55.
1
8.00
3.90
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.... Jan. '53-Sep. '65
64. Book value of mfrs. ' inventories
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
66 Consumer installment debt
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82.
83
90
91.
92
Federal cash payments to public. .;....Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Federal cash receipts from public
Jan. '55-Dec.'64
Jan. '56-Sep. '65
Defense Dept oblig.^ procurement
Defense Department obligations, total. Jul. '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Military contract awards in U.S
99 New orders defense products
114 Treasury bill rate
115 Treasury bond yields
116 Corporate bond yields
117 Municipal bond yields
Jan '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan '53-Sep. '65
Jan. '59- June '66
Jan '53-Sep. '65
Jul. '61-Sei) '65
2.58
3.35
2.02
2.07
2.83
See footnotes at end of table.
67
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Port 1.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued
VE
Monthly series
Period
covered
CI
I
C
i/5
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES^Con.
#6. Exports, excluding military aid
Jan. '53-Oct. '64
87 . General imports
Jan. '53-Oct. '64
#1. Consumer prices
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
94 . Construction contracts, value
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus.. Jan.* 53-Sep. '65
3.81
3.04
.15
6.64
1.45
3.56
2.87
.09
6.38
.54
.94
.80
.13
1.55
1.28
3.77
3.59
.69
4.12
.42
4
4
1
5
1
.91
.86
.69
.87
.42
1.78
1.83
5.63
1.55
5.63
1.66 14.10
1.62 10.85
1.54 16.89
8.00
1.52
1.57 10.86
4.06
3.54
5.63
3.15
5.63
Jan.' 53-Sep. '65
Jan.1 53-Sep. '65
Jan. '53-Sep. '65
Jan.1 53-Sep. '65
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
Jan. ' 53-Sep. '65
.93
1.08
.86
1.51
1.45
1.50
1.73
.82
1.02
.77
1.33
1.38
1.40
1.23
.52
.42
.49
.66
.62
.72
1.22
1.58
2.41
1.55
2.02
2.24
1.96
1.01
2
3
2
3
3
3
2
.79
.86
.87
.64
.84
.67
.47
3.38
2.58
3.62
2.71
2.67
2.49
3.38
1.52
1.48
1.73
1.62
1.45
1.69
1.37
21.71
10.13
25.33
19.00
16.89
16.89
13.82
4.87
5.17
5.81
5.00
6.00
4.84
5.21
Period
covered
CI
"I
C
i/5
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
123. Canada
122. United Kingdom
121. OECD European countries
125 . West Germany
126 . France
127. Italy
128. Japan
• ...
i/c
Quarterly series
QCD
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
QCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11.
16.
18.
22.
New capital appropriations, mf g. ...... IQ'53-IIIQ'65 10.36
5.56
IQT53-IQ"66
Corporate profits after taxes
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
IQ'53-IIIQ'65 6.03
Ratio, profits to income originating,
4.18
corporate , all industries . ........... IQ'53-IQ'66
4.70
2.95
3.59
7.69
4.26
3.80
.61
.69
.95
1
1
1
.61
.69
.95
2.94
3.06
2.38
1.32
1.27
1.35
3.33
5.20
4.17
2.94
3.06
2.38
2.69
2.99
.90
1
.90
2.36
1.30
6.50
2.36
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. GNP in 1958 dollars
49 . GNP in current dollars
57. Final sales
5.78
3.47
5.78
7.43
10.40 10,40
IQ'53-IQ*66
IQ*53-IQ*66
IQ»53-IQ'66
1.28
1.54
1.37
.35
.34
.30
1.14
1.45
1.32
.31
.24
.23
1
1
1
.31 3.47
.24 5.78
.23 10.40
1.33
1.33
1.21
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
3.21
.77
2.99
.26
1
.26
5.56
1.47
5.56
5.56
.82
.42
.64
.65
1
.65
3.06
1.21
4.00
3.06
1.99
.96
1.80
.54
1
.54
2.38
1.47
3.33
2.38
IQ'53-mQ'65 10.70
4.11
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
IQ'53-IIIQ165 6.63
6.58
2.05
1.20
7.70
3.15
6.38
.85
.65
.19
1
1
1
.85
.65
.19
2.41
2.41
4.17
1.15
1.23
1.32
3.79
4.42
8.33
2.41
2.41
4.17
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans
IQ'53-IQ'66
IQ'53-IIIQ'65
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
110. Total private borrowing
111. Corporate gross savings
97. Backlog of capital appro. , mfg
1
Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in this table. More complete explanations appear in"Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin,
issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957.
"CI", is the average month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter)
percentage change, _without regard to sign, in the seasonally
adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component,
obtained by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series.
"C" is the same for the cyclical
68FRASER
Digitized for
component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally
adjusted series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate
of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. It is small for smooth series
and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage
changes are computed separately for the irregular component
and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to
5-month spans. Averages, without regard to sign, are then
computed for the changes over each span. MCD is the shortest
span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series
become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months,
all series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time
span over which to observe cyclical movements in quarterly
series.
It is the shortest span (in quarters) for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so.
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness(small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month erpans and
for spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", no I/C_ratio
is shown for the MCD period.
For quarterly series, I/C is
shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The MCD
curve is a moving average (with the- number of
MCD)' of the seasonally adjusted series.
terms equal to
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR
of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes
approximate those of a random series.
Over 1-month intervals
in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The
actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average
(MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0.
For example, the ADR of CI is 1.65 for the series on bank
debits, all SyiSA's except New York (series 51). This indicates
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the
average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series.
The ADR measures shown in the next two columns,
1.50 for I and 30.40 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component.
Finally, ADR is 4.29 for the MCD moving average.
This indicates that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series (3 months being the MCD span) reverses direction, on
the average, about every 4 months. The increase in the ADR
from 1.65 for CI to 4.29 for the MCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving
average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements
of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part-2.-A ve rage- U n i t C ha n ges
Period
covered
Monthly series
31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories
Unit of
measure
CI
I
C
Jan. '53-Sep.'65 Ann. rate,
bil. dol..
3.68
.74
3.58
20. Change in book value of manufacturers
inventories of materials, supplies... Jan. '53-Sep. '65
.29
1.51
do
1.44
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods. Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Bil. dol...
.46
.48
.13
Jan. '55-Dec. '64 Ann. rate,
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
bil. dol.. 4.34
4-. 22
.82
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Mil. dol... 98.01 78.89 46.86
93 , Free reserve s
Jan. '53-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
85 . Change in money supply,
percent. . . 3.15
.33
3.17
98. Change, money supply and time deposits Jan. '53-Sep. '65
do
2.56" 2.58
.29
112. Change in business loans
-.
Aug. '59-Sep. '65 Ann. rate,
1.35
bil. dol.. 1.39
.35
.79
.31
113. Change in consumer installment debt... Jan. '53-Sep. '65 ....do
.87
88. Merchandise trade balance
Jan. '53-Jun. '62 Mil. dol... 58.44 55.87 17.28
I/C Average duration of
run (ADR)
for
I/C MCD MCD
I
C MCD
span CI
4.87
5
.98 1.51 1.43
9.06
2.65
4.97
3.51
6 C1) 1.67 1.50
4 .98 1.69 1.62
6.08
7.60
3.00
3.10
5.16
1.68
5 .98 L.59 1.43 7.44 2.74
3 .68 2.03 1.60 3D. 13 3.49
: 9.611
8.91
6 (X) 1.39 1.39 10.87 2.47
6 (X) 1.42 \1.37 10.87 2.59
3.87
2.56
3.23
5 .95 1.62 1.55 6.64 2.56
3 .92 L.65 1.49 10.13 3.13
3 .97 1.82 1.61 9.42 2.64
1
Quarterly series
21. Change in business inventories; all
industries
Period
covered
IQ'53-IQ'66
95. Balance, Fed. income and product acct. IQ'53-IQ'66
89. U.S. balance of payments:
a. Liquidity balance basis. ......... IQ'53-IIIQ'65
b. Official settlements basis.
IQ'60-IQ>66
CI
I
C
I/C Average duration of
run (ADR)
for
I/C QCD QCD
I
C QCD
span . ci
2.28
2.50
1.43
1.37
1.37
1.81
1.04
.76
2 .48 1.73 1.37
1 .76 2.17 1.37
4.00 2.83
3.71 2.17
Mil. dol... 340.64 225.64 216.94 1.04
do
492.17 302.66 286.13 1.06
2 .45 1.67 1.25
2 .55 2.00 1.41
3.13
2.67
Unit of
.measure
Ann. rate,
bil. dol..
do
•'•Not computed for series'when MCD is "6" or more.
The measures in the above table are computed by an additive
method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative
data.
Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed in
2.72
2.56
the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same
for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the
seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular
component, which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown .above have the same meaning as in
part 1.
69
Appendix D.-CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (NOV.1965 TO DEC. 1966)
19€>5
Nov.
1<?66
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
92.0 156.7 112.6
Mar.
Apr. May June
86.1
92.6
July Aug. Sept. Oct.
81.9 113.0 140.4
Nov.
Dec.
92.5
92.0
4. Temporary layofft all industries . . . .89.9
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
104.5
unemployment insurance
86.9
13. New business incorporations1
107.6
14. Liabilities of business failures
138.5 147.0 108.0 92.9 91.8 81.1 82.6 105.2 84.5 76.7 88.0 103.6 138.5
107.0 111.6 92.8 116.5 101.6 102.6 105.2 91.9 99.5 93.3 93.5 86.9 107.0
76.2 92.4 101.0 104.8 103.0 104.3 111.1 111.2 110.1 94.8 88.4 100.7 76.2
95.0
100.5
97.6
83.7 110.2 114.1 111.8 106.7 100.8 101.6 85.7 100.2 94.3 96.6 93.8 83.7
96.3
100.5
97.0
106.2
114.0 121.'6 111.0 98.4 82*. 1
82.'i, 79*. 3 76.7 92*.8 102!l 110.7 109 '.8 101 ! 3
15.
IB.
30.
37.
Large business failures
Profits per dollar of sales, .mfg.2...
Nonagri. placements, all industries1.
Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventorie s
88.6
92.6 104.4 109.7 106.1 114.2 108.9 101.6 97.4
55. Wholesale prices except farm prod100.0 100.1 100.1 100.0
ucts and foods
100.0 100.0 100.0 99.9
Si. Consumer prices
1
101,4 105.8 91.4 94.4
82. Federal cash payments to public
165. 655. -2964. 1315.
#3. Federal cash receipts from public3,..
90
91.
92.
112.
128.
73.3
99.2
Defense Dept oblig
procurement..,. 96.4
Defense Dept. obligations, total
91.7
96.1
Military contract awards in U.S
85.4
90.5
Change in business loans
101 3 101 3
Japan, industrial production index... 98.8 102.3
82.8
94.4
95.5
100 4
94.0
83.4
82.0
87.2
99 5
100.7
73.1
86.1
88.4
92.6
93.2
95.0
100.0 100.0 99.9 99.9 99.9 99.9
99.9 99.9 99.8 99.9 100.2 100.0
94.1 97.8 100.3 104.7 94.5 118.3
2258. -1689. 1897. 4431. -4573. 1313.
99.8
100.0
97.4
2181.
100.0 100.0 100.1
100.1 100.0 100.0
104.0 98.7 102.1
-4969. 165. 655.
99.2
97.5
113.8
100 5
108.2
92.7
99.4
109.3
99 4
99.8
99.9
100.7
96.3
99 7
100.0
95.6
96.1
84.3
100 5
99.4
95.7
91.4
90.1
100 2
99.9
179.0
142.2
174.7
99 g
100.6
87.8 87.6
112.6 95.3
77.5 94.4
99 i 98 7
99.9 ,96.0
87.9
96.4
91.7
85.4
100 7
98.8
99.2
96.1
90.5
101 3
102 '.3
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the
.method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in mil'lions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the original monthly data
ally adjusted data. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
program.
^Factors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed.
Digitized for70
FRASER
from the application of these
trading-day factors.
to yield the monthly seasonMethod II seasonal adjustment
Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
Percent change:
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough
Jan.
May
Oct.
Aug.
May
1920-JuOy
1923- July
1926-Nov.
1929-Mar.
1937 -June
1921
1924
1927
1933
1938
Feb.
Nov.
July
July
May
1945 -Oct. 19454
1948-Oct . 1949
1953-Aug. 19545
1957-Apr . 1958
1960-Feb. 1961
Median:6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions
4 contractions since 1948.
50. GNP 49. GNP
in 1958 in curdollars rent
dollars
(Q)1
July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June
1921-May 1923
1924-Oct . 1926
1927-Aug. 1929
1933-May 1937
1938-Feb. 19454
Oct. 1945-Nov.
Oct . 1949-July
Aug. 1954-July
Apr. 1958-May
1948
19535
1957
1960
Median: 6
All expans ions
Excluding wartime expansions
4 expansions since 1945...
43. Unemployment rate, total
51. Bank
debits,
all
SMSA's
except
New York
52. Personal
income
54. Sales
of retail
stores
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
-4.3
-1.9
0.0
-43.5
-17.3
+7.9
+2.3
2
+2.2
+25.4
+8.8
(NA)
-1.6
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4
-10.9
-3.4
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2
-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4
-4.0
^-.7
0.0
+0.2
+0.9
+8.6
-0.5
-0.5
-2.4
-2.7
+2.2
+4.1
+3.5
+3.2
+1.6
-16.0
-1.9
-2.8
-3.1
-2.0
-2.2
-16.0
-8.8
-2.1
-1.9
-2.8
-1.3
-3.6
-0.8
-2.4
+0.1
-2.6
-1.4
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
47. Index
of industrial
production
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-31.6
-10.4
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
(NA)
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-7.9
-5.1
-3.4
-3.9
-1.9
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7
-5.6
-6.5
-3.6
1
(Q)
Percent change:
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak
Reference peak to reference trough
Rate at
peak
2
2
4.0
3.2
2
1.9
3
0.0
11.2
2
2
Rate at
trough
2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
6.8
+3.4
3.5
7.1
+3.6
+3.4
3.9
4.0
7.6
7.1
3
43. Unemployment rate, total
Reference trough to reference peak
50. GNP 49. GNP 51. Bank
in 1958 in cur- debits,
all
dollars rent
dollars SMSA's
(Q)1
except
(Q)1
New York
Change
in rate,
peak to
trough
52. Per- 54. Sales
of retail
sonal
income
stores
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
47. Index
of Industrial
production
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+40.2
+45.9
+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3
(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)
+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131.7
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
+15.7
+9.9
+3.6
+69.2
+105.4
-8.7
-3.6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.9
+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2
+3.3
+28.8
+11.8
+11.4
+34.9
+44.1
+22.4
+15.1
+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2
+28.5
+41.4
+22.1
+13.3
+63.8
+25.6
+20.3
+11.9
+0.3
-5.3
-1.9
-2.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
+17.5
+35.2
+12.3
+27.5
+33.8
+26.7
+20.5
-3.7
7.1
3.3
+13.0
+13.0
+26.6
+23.6
+12.1
+11.6
+20.9
+28.6
+24.4
+39.0
+21.3
+25.3
+16.0
+23.0
-2.6
-2.0
6.3
6.8
3.7
3.9
Change
in rate, Rate at
trough
trough
to peak
2
2
2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
Rate at
peak
2
3.2
1.9
3.2
>• 11.2
1.1
2
2 3
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.2
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, and 52), the figure for the
reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51 and 54), the average of the
3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month "is used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is
the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
NA Not available.
The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
4
Vorld War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
lf
Source:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
71
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED-SERIES
Historical data, including latest revisions, are presented for selected series each month. See the Series Finding Guide for the
publication date of the latest historical figures for each series. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
17. Price per unit of labor cost index (19 57-59-100)l
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
106.3
102.2
101.5
IK. 5
* 103.6
100.3
97.2
100.8
101.8
101.0
96.3
99.7
102.1
98.3
100.5
105.6
101.1
102.4
114.2
103.5
99.9
97.3
100.5
101.6
101.0
95.1
100.8
101.2
98.6
100.6
31.
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
0.0
+9.6
+1.9
+29.2
+5.7
+19.6
-4.7
+4.5
+9.1
+6.6
-4.7
+2.4
+10.6
-3.9
+5.9
104.5
102.1
103.1
113.4
102.9
100.0
96.8
101.1
101.2
101.0
94.2
101.1
100.7
98.5
100.6
77.5
81.0
78.2
80.8
88.1
89.5
94.1
90.7
92.3
97.3
103.7
100.8
98.8
102.8
100.3
107.4
99.9
105.2
110.9
101.2
100.6
98.6
101.6
102.0
101.2 •
97.0
103.5
100.1
100.4
100.4
108.0
100.8
107.2
109.1
100.9
100.2
98.8
102.4
101.6
101.3
' 98.7
103.7
100.7
100.9
100.0
107.0
99.9
110.2
106.7
102.4
101.9
99.1
102.9
98.1
101.7
99.8
101.8
100.3
101.4
100.5
105.8
101.0
111.9
104.9
102.5
101.2
99.0
103.0
100.8
101.6
99.8
100.7
100.6
102.0
100.6
105.3
101.5
112.2
104.8
101.5
100.9
99.8
103.9
101.7
101.2
99.2
100.7
100.5
102.0
100.8
105.2
101.3
110.4
105.4
101.2
99.2
98.4
104.2
101.0
99.6
100.5
99.7
99.9
101.0
100.2
103.3
102.2
109.7
104.7
101.8
98.2
97.6
102.0
101.2
98.2
100.4
99.0
99.5
100.8
100.1
103.1
101.1
112.3
103.8
100.3
96.9
9B.9
102.0
100.4
97.6
100.2
101.3
99.8
101.1
99.5
Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (Annual rate, billion dollars)
+8.6
+0.3
-0.3
+17.8
-1.1
+2.2
-3.5
+3.2
+12.7
+2.4
-7.1
+4.7
+13.0
-2.1
+6.1
+7.1
-3.1
+5.3
+18.4
-0.2
+5.4
-3.8
+7.6
+5.1
+1.9
-5.4
+5.1
+9.4
-6.8
+6.3
62.
1948.....
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
105.8
101.4
104.6
111.5
102.7
100.0
97.8
101.9
101.6
100.3
94.7
102.4
100.0
99.8
100.3
77.4
81.2
77.9
81.9
88.2
90.0
93.9
91.1
92.9
97.6
104.8
99.9
99.7
102.6
100.1
+4.5
-7.8
+3.6
+16:6
-2.2
+8.7
-4.6
+0.8
+13.1
+3.7
-8.3
+14.6
+0.7
+0.8
+2.3
+2.0
-6.5
+8.3
+14.5
-4.5
+3.9
-3.8
+6.0
+8.0
-0.1
-6.8
+6.4
+6.8
+0.9
+7.4
+9.0
-5.5
+7.3
+9.4
+2.2
+5.7
-4.6
+8.0
+6.4
+0.9
-3.1
+9.9
+2.4
-0.4
+6.0
+11.4
-4.4
-3.2
+5.4
-3.0
+9.5
-4.2
+6.6
+5.7
+3.0
-3.7
+7.2
+4.0
+2.4
+3.9
+5.1
-2.9
+21.9
+5.2
-1.0
+2.8
-5.4
+8.9
+5.4
+7.0
-2.8
-0.5
3.8
+2.9
+2.1
+5.2
+1.0
+17.8
+0.1
+10.8
+2.6
-0.9
+5.0
+8.0
+5.6
+4.2
-5.2
+2.2
+3.6
+5.5
+3.0
-5.5
+24-0
+2.5
+5.8
-7.1
+4.2
+7.0
+10.7
-2.1
+2.1
-1.2
+1.4
+7.7
+1.7
-0.9
-7.2
+17.4
+3.2
+3.7
-3.4
-0.3
+7.3
+4.4
+0.8
+7.7
+14.3
-10.9
+5.8
+4.9
80.1
78.5
79.1
87.3
89.4
91.8
92.5
89.8
81.3
77.7
80.5
87.7
88.6
92.7
93.4
91.8
96.4
99.8
99.7
101.3
101.3
99.4
100.6
101.4
100.0
101.9
101.7
99.7
100.6
80.9
78.3
80.6
88.4
89.6
94.1
92.4
92.0
97.4
102.3
100.4
99.5
101.3
99.6
101.0
-1.08
0.00
+5.16
+6.00
+2.88
+0.96
+5.52
+1.80
+0.84
-2.64
+5.16
-3.36
0.00
+3.36
+4.92
-3.24
+1.08
+2.04
+9.96
+3.84
0.00
+5.52
-2.64
+2.64
-1.80
+6.84
-1.68
-2.52
+5.88
+3.24
-3.24
+2.16
+3.12
+6.84
+2.88
+0.96
+1,80
+2.64
+2.64
-3.48
+1.68
-6.72
+2.52
+4.08
+5.76
+5.0
-4.0
+20.0
+2.8
+9.3
-5.0
-3.8
+11.3
+5.0
-8.6
+2.3
+1.8
-1.5
+2.1
+5.6
Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing ( 1957-59-100)2
78.4
80.2
77.6
82.7
88.6
90.2
94.4
90.5
93.7
97.6
106.0
99.6
100.4
102.6
100.0
78.2
80.3
76.9
84.4
88.6
90.2
93.8
89.9
93,8
98.3
105.5
98.5
101.1
101.1
100.5
77.5
80.9
77.2
84.7
89.7
90.0
93.0
90.2
93.9
97.5
103.0
97.7
100.9
100.2
100.4
77.6
79.9
76.2
85.7
90.0
90.4
92.5
89.8
94.4
97.6
101.3
97.5
100.5
99.5
100.7
78.8
80.1
75.8
87.1
88.6
89.6
92.3
89.8
97.8
97.7
100.3
99.3
100.9
99.0
100.3
80.0
78.9
75.9
87.8
88.6
89.9
92.2
89.9
95.6
97.9
100.3
100.3
100.5
98.5
100.2
80.4
78.4
76.9
87.6
89.3
90.3
91.2
89.7
95.3
98.2
101.0
100.4
100.5
98.4
100.3
96.4
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (Annual rate, percent)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
+3.24
-3.24
+3.24
+5.16
+3.96
-0.96.
+1.92
+6.36
+2.64
0.00
-3.48
+4.20
-1.68
+0.84
0,00
-2.16
0.00
+6. AS
+4.08
+4.92
+0.96
+0.96
+8.16
0.00
-0.84
+6.24
+3.36
-3.36
+4.20
+2.52
6.36
0.00
+4.32
+5.16
+1.92
+5.64
+0.96
-2.64
+1.80
+0.84
+2.64
+4.20
-3.36
+2.52
+1.68
See footnotes at end of Appendix.
Digitized for72
FRASER
-3.24
+1.08
+7.44
+2.04
+2.88
+2.76
-5.52
+2.64
+2.64
0.00
+4.44
+1.68
-0.84
+2.52
+A.08
-2.16
+2.16
+5.28
+4.08
+3.84
+1.92
+10.32
+6.24
-1.80
+0.84
+4.32
+4.20
-4.32
+3.36
-3.24
-1.08
-2.16
+4.20
+4.08
+4.80
0.00
+1.80
-1.80
+1.80
-0.84
+7.80
+1.68
-1.68
+2.52
+0.84
+2.16
-1.08
+5.28 .
+5.04
+2.88
+0.96
+3.72
+3.60
0.00
+0.84
0.00
+5.88
+2.52
0.00
-0.8A
+1.08
-2.16
+4.20
+5.04
+3.84
+0.96
+3.72
0.00
-2.64
+0.84
+6.12
-4.20
+4.32
+2.52
-0.84
-1.08
-1.08
+2.04
+8.04.
+6.72
-0.96
+1.80
+1.80
+4.44
-2.64
+3.48
-2.52
+1.68
+5.04
-1.68
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
Historical data, including latest revisions, are presented for selected series each month. See the Series Finding Guide for the
publication date of the latest historical figures for each series. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
86.
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1,101.6
1,109.6
1,189.8
1,072,0
794.6
792.0
970.1 ' 1,022.3
1,235-8
1,249.8
968.1
1,047.0
974.8
1,043.6
1,176.1
1,199.2
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
1,296.6
1,657.9
1,419.9
1,319.2
1,564.6
1,627.4
1,670.6
1,297.7
1,599.0
1,350.4
1,293.1
1,570.5
1,716.1
1,812.0
May
Apr,
526.5
586.7
592.3
938.7
856.3
901.5
855.4
888.2
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1,047.1
1,057.8
1,054.2
1,164.7
1,246.7
1,160.9
1,326.6
589.0
567.1
606.3
927.0
881.3
888.6
846.1
890.9
1,056.6
1,049.9
1,016.6
1,194.4
1,347.4
1,150.2
1,309.3
1,022.8
1,049.1
1,094.6
1,084.6
785.8
772.1
1,256.1
1,080.0
1,138.0
1,280.8
1,006.4
1,016.6
857.0
1,193.1
1,156.9 • 1,119. A
1,337.6
1,399.3
1,878,0
1,733. A
1,370.0
1,362.7
1,302.1
1,296. A
1,519.0
1,624.7
1,753.6
1,662. A
1,797.5
1,673.3
581.6
547.6
576.8
996.7
90 A.I
901.5
752. A
905.5
1,035.5
1,118.1
1,051.0
1,213.8
1,289.8
1,162.9
1,341.7
88.
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
+583.1
+603.1
+202.3
+31. A
+393.5
+145.5
+119.4
+287.9
+512.6
+504.9
+185.7
+95.3
+354.5
+79.5
+197.5
+308.3
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
+249.5
+600.1
+365.7
+154.5
+317.9
+466.5
+344.0
+241.1
+549.1
+333.8
+98.7
+223.1
+565.9
+502.7
+A67.5
+5A7.0
+195.3
+83.3
+376.7
+10A.9
+10A.6
+251. A
+302.1
+759.9
+319.0
+88.3
+229.2
+590.7
+331.6
98.
510.1
53A.3
605.5
1,005".0
869.5
958.2
919. A
889.5
1,013.8
1,099.0
1,045. A
1,210.0
1,349.0
1,152.0
1,365.6
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1,061.9
1,046.2
772.3
1,133.0
1,129.1
1,008.8
1,087.7
1,132.5
988.8
1,077.9
830.7
1,131.5
1,063.3
. 996.1
1,096.0
1,164.9
1,068,8
975.8
820.8
1,233.6
969.8
1,018.8
1,084.5
1,239.9
1,125.0
976.9
813.0
1,233.3
1,012.0
1,033.9
1,071.8
1,210.7
1,409.3
1,546.7'
1,374.8
1,327.1
1,661.5
1,586.3
1,763.8
1,438.1
1,689.9
1,331.9
1,347.2
1,635.2
1,588.2
1,837.2
1,A14.6
1,609.1
1,365.6
1,395.5
1,709.2
1,691.9
1,749.8
1,AAA.3
1,609.7
1,371.0
1,430.3
1,627.2
1,691.0
1,703. A
950.2
907.5
888.8
1,233.0
1,027.8
1,111.1
1,022.9
1,201.9
1,585.8
1,581.3
1,325.7
1,501.0
1,651.6
1,679.9
1,910.3
1,055.2
905,9
893.0
1,100.7
1,004.1
975.1
1,135..0
1,274.2
1,503.1
1,549.5
1,345.5
1,337.0
1,670.2
1,781.0
1,5AA.7
855.4
867.7
939.9
1,273.1
1,026.1
1,044.1
1,149.8
1,217.3
1,350,2
1,533.6
1,425.5
1,381.7
1,681.4
1,741.3
1,728.7
625.6
596.3
565.0
A86.6
95A.9
821.2
837.6
884.8
897.0
915.3
970.0
910. A
852.1
814-9
981.7
953. A
1,065.7
1,120.9
1,062.9
1,101. A
1,076.0
1,050.6
1,298.7
1,408.3
1,255.8 . 1,221.0
1,262.2
1,253. A
1,345.9. 1,471.4
620.2
572.5
911,8
799.5
898.6
831.8
813.2
1,051.6
555.1
602.8
876.3
8AA.9
90A.3
897.9
836.6
1,058.6
1,056.9
1,089. A
1,097.8
1,200.3
1,206.0
1,299.8
1,314.6
976.9
1,075.9
1,164.9
1,299.1
1,161.6
1,308.7
1,424.9
1,188.2
858.0
915.0
1,309.3
1,016.0
1,050.3
1,107.6
1,224-0
1,853.9
1,506.7
1,337.8
1,497.6
1,647. A
1,727.7
1,843.3
General imports, total (Mil. dol.)
589.5
548.1
636.1
985.5
838.7
9A2.3
852.2
939.6
1,034-7
1,052.0
1,053.5
1,312.8
1,269.2
1,152.9
1,404.1
619.9
523.3
683.9
967.0
882. A
906.6
928.3
923.9
1,068.2
1,058.0
1,042.0
1,311.5
1,276.8
1,174.3
1,350.8
609.5
515.1
786,8
940.1
8A5.5
91A.2
855. A
956.7
1,066.2
1,121. A
1,039.2
1,251.7
1,270.1
1,379.3
1,346.6
676.9
593.5
890.6
811.9
978.5
850.0
889.6
989.1
1,070.9
1,089.5
1,138.3
1,333.1
1,124.8
1,315.2
1,376.5
Merchandise trade balance — series 86 minus series 87 (Mil. dol.)
+512.7
+550.3
+180.3
+251.1
+268.5
+58. A
+273.7
+229.9
+385.5
+63A.A
+317.3
+86. A
+275.7
+510. A
+A31.9
+A72.A
+A98.1
+136.2
+1A7.5
+290. A
+66.5
+235.5
+192.9
+37A.6
+A9A.7
+321.3
+1A.3
+392.3
+A33.A
+359.7
+368.9
+55A.6
+1A6.8
+16A.5
+180.9
+89.5
+167.7
+2A1 . 0
+A59.3
+A60.7
+3A.O
+293.5
+12A.3
+10A.6
+229.1
+283.2
+369.9
+631.9
+289.9
+35.7
+358. A
+A13.9
+A86.A
+ 3A8.A
+A87.7
+326. A
+143.8
+A39.1
+312.6
+A03.2
+A99.A
+A90.3
-8.2
+3A8.5
+115.0
+123.5
+219.7
+257.3
+378.6
+508.3
+320. A
+131.6
+371. A
+A37.6
+357.5
+353.9
+342.5
-66.1
+395. A
+112.5
+141.1
+208.0
+220.2
+435.0
+333.4
-18.8
+301.2
+105.5
+143. 3
+321.8
+222.6
+300.3
+264.9
+63.6
+428. 2
+121.8
+1A6.2
+313.2
+158.7
+A6A.9
+518. A
+2A9.7
+92.7
+430.6
+A17.7
+A38.9
+AA6.2
+A60.1
+2A7.7
+136.7
+46A.2
+481.2
+230.1
+373.3
+A57.7
+260.6
+82.6
+519.8
+A32.6
+303.8
+511.3
+264.5
+24.4
+497.4
+37.5
+200.3
+218.0
+234.9
+783.0
+A17.2
+199.5
+16A.5
+522.6
+A12.5
+A66.8
Percent change in money supply and time deposits (Annual rate, percent)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
+3.24
-1.68
+2.40
+3.96
+4.44
+1.44
+3.48
+6.00
0.00
0.00
+6.48
+2.40
+6.00
+2.16
+3.48
+7.32
-A. 80
0.00
+3.2A
+3.96
+3.00
+6.36
+3.A8
-1.32
-2.40
+1.68
+6.A8
+2.28
+3.72
+3.A8
-0.72
+3.2A
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
+1.32
+4.44
-1.20
+6.36
-2.28
+4.44
+7.32
0.00
+2.52
+14.28
+2.28
-4.08
+10.08
+11.52
+2.6A
+A.AA
+9.8A
+A.08
-1.68
+5.0A
+9.36
+3.2A
+1.92
+9.12
+2.88
+1.20
+5.52
+8.76
July
Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (Mil. dol.)
87.
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
June
+A.AA
+3.A8
+10.32
+4.56
0.00
-0.84
+3.24
+3.8A
+5.16
+1.AA
+3.36
0.00
• +1.68
-0.84
+3.12 .
+6.12
+3.60
+2.76
+6.12
+3.2A
+1.68
-1.68
+2.AO
+5.AO
+5.04
+2.76
+6.12
0.00
-0.60
+3.72
+7.80
+3.A8
-2.28
+7.68
+1.56
+3.2A
+1.20
+10.80
+3.A8
+1.68
+6.60
+6.12
+1.32
+3.72
+A.80
+A.56
+6.36
+5.AO
+5.0A
0.00
+3.12
+7.68
-2.28
+8.6A
+6.00
+A.08
-1.68
+2.AO
+5.64
+3.8A
-0.84
-0.84
+0.84
+8.AO
+7.20
+1.AA
+2.0A
+3.2A
+5.16
+0.60
+3.A8
-1.08
+5.6A
+7.56
+A.56
-0.84
0.00
+3.12
+5.28
+3.60
+3. 48
+5.AO
+1.92
-1.68
+0.8A
+2.AO
+9.12
+5.76
+2.0A
+A.68
-0.60
+1.32
+1.20
+A.08
-2.28
+A.56
+6.36
+9.48
+3.2A
+1.20
+6.48
-1.20
+2.88
+7.AA
+7.92
-2.40
+1.68
+3.12
+6.72
+3.60
+2.76
+2.04
+2.6A
+2.52
0.00
+2.28
-3.96
+6.24
+5.28
+11 . AO
73
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED-SERlES-Continued
Historical data, including latest revisions9 are presented for selected series each month. See the Series Finding Guide for the
publication date of the latest historical figures for each series. Current data are shown in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jan.
110.
194$
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
Feb.
Mar.
,
24,680
24,548
17,116
33,240
36,212
33,164
25,516
38,388
41,468
25,196
41,920
111.
...
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct..
Nov.
21,932
22,668
21,344
28,468
28,784
30,604
26,992
34,104
36,008
32,288
41,440
...
...
26,560
23,744
20,552
33,760
31,808
34,240
24,036
48,716
33,380
34,736
45,804
...
...
24,672
19,860
23,500
36,543
30,292
29,480
27,820
42,092
30,108
36,304
44,568
...
...
29,008
16,824
25,308
38,988
31,868
25,776
36,716
33,840
27,256
39,384
44,924
Gross retained earnings of nonfinancial corporations (Annual rate, mil. dol.)
...
...
20,292
21,416
22,908
29,432
28,488
30,884
27,716
36,652
35,056
35,456
41,228
...
...
20,140
21,164
23,480
29,072
29,456
30,988
30,044
34,112
34,056
36,176
41,852
...
...
22,276
19,268
25,576
29,684
28,980
29,812
33,204
35,028
32,520
38,372
42,756
•'•Ratio, index of wholesale prices of manufactured goods to index of labor cost per unit of output (series 62).
Ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (sum of wages and salaries plus supplements to wages and
salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing.
2
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
74
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Dec.
Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Annual rate, mil. dol.)
...
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
1962
Apr.
...
INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Timing
classification
Charts
1
2
Appendixes
Tables
3
1
2
4
5
6
7
B
C
D
F
E
Page
G
Page
Issue
Issue
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
1. Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg. .
2 Accession rate manufacturing
46. Help-wanted advertising
30. Nonagricultural placements, all indus
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments
42. Total nonagricultural employment
3. Layoff rate manufacturing
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance ,
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State.
43. Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate, married males
L
L
C
L
C
C
L
L
L
C
C
C
10
10
15
10
15
15
10
10
10
15
15
15
C
C
C
c
c
c
c
c
16
16
16
17
17
17
16
17
L
L
L
L
L
L
U
L
L
L
Lg
U
U
U
11
11
12
12
11
11
22
11
11
11
18
20
22
22
L
L
L
14
14
14
18
14
18
14
14
14
59
59
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
24
24
28
24
28
28
24
24
24
28
28
28
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
29
29
28
29
29
29
29
29
8
8
8
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
25
25
25
25
24
24
34
25
25
25
30
32
34
34
&
&
S
9
8
9
8
8
8
27
26
27
30
27
30
27
27
27
8
8
8
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
27
26
29
34
30
30
26
26
26
26
62
62
63
63
66
62
63
66
62
63
62
63
66
62
62
62
62
63
63
63
63
62
63
66
66
66
66
66
66
62
63
62
62
63
63
66
62
62
62
63
63
63
66
66
62
63
66
62
63
66
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
70
70
70
72
72
*66
*66
72
71
71
72
*66
*66
*66
71
71
71
Sept.
Sept.
Feb.
Oct.
Sept.
Feb.
Sept.
Nov.
July
•Mar.
Feb.
Feb.
'66
'66
'64
'63
!
66
'66
'66
'63
' 63
'64
'66
'66
71
72
70
72
72
72
72
72
Aug.
July
Sept.
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.
Aug.
Mar.
'65
' 66
'64
'65
'65
'66
'65
'65
74
74
74
*66
65
*66
June
July
June
Aug.
May
Dec.
' 65
' 65
' 65
'63
' 64
'63
68
65
74
66
68
Nov.
June
Nov.
June
Nov .
*66
71
72
66
64
66
*68
65
*66
Dec.
Aug.
Nov.
June
June
June
June
June
Mar.
'63
'65
'66
' 64
r
64
' 64
' 63
' 64
'64
*66
66
69
70
72
73
71
72
64
74
Jan ,
Apr.
Aug .
Aug .
Nov.
Oct.
Aug.
Nov.
June
Sept.
' 64
'64
' 64
' 64
'66
'65
'65
'66
' 64
'65
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME AND TRADE
49 GNP in current dollars
50. GNP in 1958 dollars,
47 Industrial production
52. Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr
54. Sales of retail stores
57 Final sales
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
60
60
59
••
68
68
67
67
67
67
68
67
71
71
71
71
71
71
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
29. New building permits, private housing —
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
38. Index of net business formation
13 New business incorporations
6. New orders, durable goods industries
24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries . .
94 Construction contracts value
9. Construction contracts, comm. and indus. .
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment.
11. New capital appropriations, mfg
61. Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip . .
Ill Corporate gross savings
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg . .-.
58
--
60
••
67
67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67
68
68
68
68
68
70
'64
' 64
66
' 64
' 64
f
73
July '64
IV. INVENTORIES
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods. .
21. Change in business inventories (GNP) . . .
31 Change mfg and trade inventories
64 Manufacturers' inventories total
20. Change, mtls. and supplies inventories. . .
65 Mfrs ' inventories, finished goods.
37. Purchased, materials, higher inventories. .
26 Buying policy production materials
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries . . .
t-
Lg
L
L
60
62
63
66
69
69
69
67
69
67
67
67
67
70
V. PRICES, COSTS AND PROFITS
23 Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
81 Consumer prices
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corp. GNP. . .
16 Corporate profits after taxes
17 Ratio price to unit labor cost, mfg
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
22. Profits to income originating, corporate. . .
L
L
C
U
Lg
Lg
L
L
L
14
13
17
22
18
18
13
13
13
13
58
58
59
61
58
62
62
62
63
63
63
66
66
62
63
66
62
62
63
63
66
67
67
67
68
67
68
68
67
68
68
70
70
70
70
70
- FRASER
leading, C - roughly coincident, Lg - lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.
DigitizedLfor
75
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(Page Numbers)
Economic Process Group
and Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Timing
classification
Charts
1
2
Appendixes
Tables
3
1
2
4
5
6
7
B
C
D
G
F
E
Page
Issue
Page
Issue
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
U
85 Change in money supply
98. Change, money supply and time deposits . . U
U
93 Free reserves
66 Consumer installment debt
Lg
U
113 Change consumer installment debt
112. Change in business loans
U
U
110. Total private borrowing . .'
20
20
20
IB
20
20
20
U
114 Treasury bill rate
U
115 Treasury bond yields
U
116 Corporate bond yields
U
117 Municipal bond yields . .
U
118 Mortgage yields
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans . . Lg
L
14 Liabilities of business failures
L
15 Large business failures
21
21
21
VII,
61
"\
:i
21
18
12
12
61
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
32
32
32
30
33
32
32
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
8
33
33
33
33
33
30
25
26
62
63
62
63
62
62
63
63
69
69
69
67
69
69
68
66
67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67
70
70
Nov.
Nov.
Oct.
Aug.
July
July
Nov.
'66
'66
'64
'64
' 64
'64
'66
71
72
72
72
72
70
*66
*66
July
July
Aug.
July
July
Aug.
Nov.
Mar.
' 64
'64
'66
''64
' 64
'64
'63
'64
73
73
73
74
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
July
'66
'66
'66
'65
72
72
72
72
70
70
70
66
May
May
May
Aug.
Sept.
Sept.
Sept.
Oct.
< 66
' 66
' 66
'65
'64
'64
'64
'64
66
67
67
67
67
68
68
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
'64
73
73
73
73
72
69
73
73
Sept. '66
Sept. '66
May.
'65
May
'65
Apr.
'65
Oct.
'64
Feb.
'65
Feb.
'65
72
69
72
73
69
70
70
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Feb.
Oct.
Nov.
Nov.
73
73
73
July
July
July
'64
' 64
' 64
74
74
74
74
74
July
July
July
July
July
' 64
' 64
' 64
' 64
' 64
FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
U
U
U
U
22
22
22
22
9
9
9
9
33
34
34
34
68
68
69
69
U
83 Federal cash receipts from public
U
82 Federal cash payments to public
U
84 Federal cash surplus or deficit
95. Balance, Fed. income and prod, account . . U
U
91. Defense Department obligations, total
. 90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. . . U
U
92 Military contract awards in U.S
U
99 New orders defense products
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
31
31
31
31
31
31
31
32
67
67
69
69
67
67
67
67
86
87.
88.
89
70
72
73
66
70
71
71
74
Exports excluding military aid
General imports
Merchandise trade balance
U S balance of payments
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
61
•.
62
63
70
70
70
70
70
••
IX. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121
122.
123
125
126
127
128.
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
Industrial
production, OECD
production, United Kingdom
production, Canada
production West Germany
production France
production, Italy
production, Japan
U
U
U
U
U
U
U
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
70
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Dl. Average workweek
D5. Initial claims
D6 New orders
Dll- Capital appropriations
D23. Industrial materials prices
D34. Profits, mfg
D35. Net sales, mfrs
D36. New orders
1-month. .
9-month. .
1-month. .
9-month..
1-month. .
9-month..
1-quarter. .
3-quarter..
••
9-month. .
1-month. .
9-month..
1-quarter. .
4-quarter. .
4-quarter. .
D41. Employees in nonagri.establish. 1-month..
6-month..
D47. Industrial production
1-month. .
6-month. .
D48. Freight carloadings
4-quarter. .
D54. Retail sales
1-month. .
9-month..
D58. Wholesale prices, mfg
1-month. .
6-month. .
D61. New plant and equip, expend.. 1-quarter. .
••
••
-
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
42
42
43
43
42
42
42
42
46-7
46-7
39
39
39
39
39
41
41
43
43
43
43
43
45
45
55
55
40
40
40
40
41
40
40
40
40
41
44
44
44
44
45
44
44
44
4445
56
56
46-9
46-9
48-9
48-9
50-3
50-3
52-3
52-3
48-51
48-51
52-5
52-5
••
-
••
••
••
73
73
73
70
68-9
73
70
73
73
69
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
'64
' 64
Sept. '66
Sept. '66
Apr.
'65
Oct.
'64
Nov.
'64
Apr.
'65
Oct.
'64
Apr.
'65
Feb.
'65
Nov.
'64
L = leading, C = roughly coincident, Lg = lagging, U = unclassified (includes "other selected U.S. series" and "international comparisons"). *Appendix G.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
76
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH
DEPARTMENT
1860
1880
1900 1920
OF COMMERCE
1940
1965
BUREAU OF THE
CENSUS
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH has been developed from available st<
tistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy. It ha
been planned, prepared, and published as a basic research documentfor econc
mists, historians, social scientists, political scientists, bankers, investors, teacher
and students, and community and business long-range planners. For these users
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH brings together for the first time under on
cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical basis for
study of long-term economic trends, It is a unique presentation of the full ran^
of factors required for an understanding of our country's economic developmen'
The data that have gone into this new statistical compendium originated i
various public source materials from both government and nongovernmer
agencies and individuals. Charts and tables are based on data from distinguishe
private research groups such as the National Bureau of Economic Research, th
Committee for Economic Development, and the Brookings Institution; an
government agencies such as the Office of Business Economics of the Depar
ment of Commerce, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Department of Labc
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH brings together about 400 aggregat
annual economic time series and nearly 800 component series that are useful fc
studying economic growth. It carries all of the series far back in time—some t
1860. Source data will be revised continuously in updated new editions; ne^
series will probably be added and some may be dropped.
The book is organized into five major parts—
I Gives various basic measures of economic growth—output of goods an
services, potential output, input of different human and material factors
and productivity.
II Deals with factors vitally related to economic growth such as educatior
research and development, and health, with background economic proc
esses such as prices, interest rates, saving, wages, profits, debt, assets c
financial institutions, balance of payments, monetary gold stock, use c
labor and capital, and seasonal and cyclical forces.
III Shows very long-range regional and industry growth trends below th
aggregate level, for fuller understanding of economic growth features an
points out regions and industries undergoing the most rapid rates c
change.
IV Compares U.S. economic growth with that of six major foreign countries
V Features "growth rate triangles" showing growth rates for key measure
useful in making comparisons over various time periods and amon
different series.
Following the five parts are the appendixes, which include a specially di
signed compound interest rate table, descriptions and sources of various serie
used, and the basic source data for charts and tables included in the book.
Charts in this brochure
are reduced from the full page
size 91/8"x 113/8".
Additional information and order forms for this.report may be obtained from the Bureau of the Census,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20233.
Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order, " M" indicates monthly series "Q" indicates
quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ". "EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates
data are for the end of the quarter. The Roman numeral identifiesthe economic process group in which a series is listed in the Finding Guide. Thus, "(M,ll)" indicates a monthly
series listed in group II. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) were
included in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M,l),--Department Of Labor,
total (M,IV),—Depart-
ment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Bureau of Labor Statistics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M,IV).«ChicagO Purchasing
*2. Accession rote, manufacturing (M,l),-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M,l),-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
37, Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials (M,IV).-National AssOCia-
tion of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
4. Number of persons on temporary .layoff, all industries (M,l).--Department Of Labor, Bu-
reau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M,I).—De-
partment of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M,III).-Department Of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*38. Index of net business formation (M,lll).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rote, married males, spouse present(M,I).--Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
*7, New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M,Ml).-Department Of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural
establishments (M,I).-Department Of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
(M,lll).-F. W. Dodge Corporation;seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
42, Total nonogricultural employment, labor force survey (M,I).-Department Of Labor, Bu-
reau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M,lll).-Departmentof Commerce, Bureau
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
of the Census, and F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M,l).-Department Of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q,IN).--Na-
tional Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted
and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
46, Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M,I).--National Industrial Conference
13, Number of new business incorporations (M,lll),--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
*47. Index of industrial production (M,ll).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Board
*49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q,ll).--Department Of Commerce, Office Of
*14. Current liabilities of business failures (M,vi),-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of
$100,000 and over
of Business Economics
*50 Gross notional product in 1958 dollars (Q,ll).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(M,VI).-Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*16i Corporate profits after taxes {Q,V).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51, Bank debits, alt standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York (224 SMSA's)
(M,ll).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income (M,ll).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M,II),-Department Of Com-
17. Price per unit of labor cost index—ratio, wholesale prices of manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M,V).-Department Of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;
and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q,V),—
Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission;
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
seasonal
*19. index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M,V),-Standard and Poor's Corporation; no
seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book volue of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (M,IV),—
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*21. Change
in business
inventories, farm and nonfarm, after valuation adjustment (GNP
component) (Q,iv).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits
(after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q,V).~
merce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Soles of retail stores (M,ll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities other than farm products and foods (M,V).-
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
57, Final soles (series 49 minus series 21) (Q,ll).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q,lll).-Department Of COHI-
merce, Office of Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements
to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production,
manufacturing (M,V).--
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*23, Index of industrial materials prices (M,V).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M,III).-De-
partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M,IV).—Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
26. Buying policy—production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
(M,iv),-National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M,111).—De-
partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonogricultural placements, all industries (M,l).--Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries(EOM,IV).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all manufacturing industries (EOM,IV),-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM,vi).--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure
for previous month to obtain current figure
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (EOQ,VI).-Board Of Governors Of
the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate gross notional product (ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises to value of corporate product in
1958 dollars) (Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, National Income Division
Continued on reverse
AND ret$ PAID
U.S. OOVtWWBflT PftlNTINO OFFICE
©iwto** or flUBye DOcuMMtt
OFFICIAL, »U«NK9#
mn cuss tun,
Titlei and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffotfoft
28 OTHIR SlLfCTlD U.$*
In boni< looiRs to buSift*^*$ (M,Vl),.-Soard if '^Vpllfl If §H f «iwl
Ri$erv® System; aaasonat afetwtl ty Gterattt ol t® C««
, Bureau of Labor Statistics;
§1, W*x of
season*! adjustment by Bureau of the Census
i iv*
«2, F«ferol ea»h wow** to tU pvfciu flt,VW).-Tw«sury Dewtaent, Bwrsau of Ac*
counts, and Extents Office of it President, Bureau of fteBtidwi; seasoaal
adiusiMAt by tot Bureau of tte Caaaus
*
r*m««i vw"iv»w*» nwn «^* F**1^ t«,**,T«i)^Tpeas4wy OepartBwirt, Burea-u of
tewf*t( Md Exaculht Offfeeol fa President, Bureau of the M«tt; sea^ttal
UJuitMai fty «h« Bweaifef lha Ctostn
$4, FWmt e«U ^wp-fo* Q* Wtot ftU,viin^Tw$aty ^ptrtwrt, Btfow ol Accounts,
urt &tiaiflva Offteaof tlw PruidA Sunav of ihe Budpt; s«asoaa» adJusHiTffif
IS, PMCM* ekrnf. in toft* U 4* main wt^tr f*w** 4itof»t» plwt
B&inl of 6wir»r$ of 0« F«decat Resem Systw
Rt&afve System
II4> Oi§ nt
^
"»•M **w
;
' *"Yrlr'
]14
•'V'.'.V^.V
y) (»,VI).-
7, G*o«rd impofti, Mi! (M.,vtl).^Dep^rtffl&nt of Cwmefce, Bureau of the Census
118. Secondary market yields On FH,A ^rt^g^ (,M, V[}-F^!l
m sAaaonat i4Jysl»irt
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON*
121. Or goj-U lotion for Economic C&opeto'tion ml D-avd-op^ssnt^ gyf(^»wn Ce*i'fitrU$y tpKUx
of i
•«••• ^)
Herce,
ri:>|i«
^.%4*^
Treasury bo,n.ds (M,Vl}t-Tr&tSWy D^aft-Bft^t;
^fjv
.T
-r lfi&ftgll4]iaafflf 1Ktfv .„, -, ^.iirttaM*
Y
of
"w »** » Tiwsmy Oapiteert, no saasaaal f4jKJmtt
, Yield W ^u^K.pot |^$rB»ted ^lif
-Tte iwl @vy%r;
6. Ex(&.orti, txctWing militory old s-Kipmsnts, total (M.viD.-Oepartfwn-t ol
Bw^ati of the Census
•9,
^ 91-day TttM^ yi% (M,vt).-B0a^ of OdWWl.if
{M/iX)-*Qfpdzatlofi for Economic
f . Ex;e*it of r*C-*Spts 0f pqynvftnts in U-S. balonc* of payments (Q, VII). "Department Of
90, D«£«ntt ^p-o-rtwftmt obligoHons, p.ro.cur^ment (M,Vtil)...Department of Defense, Fiscal
Analysis Division; saaSiorta! adjttstwnt by Bureau of the Cwsys
|2^
9K D»f*fi?.» &*Ewrn«{ir o.M I got ions, to tot (MfVlll)t-D^ad^ent of Defense, Fiscal Ajiaii; seasonal adfustaant by "
f Dafma,
Dtretioralt im Statistical Se^lwr, setswal adlHstmnt by Buretan of Ibe Ciwws
,iX),.lwtt*HteCt«tt8ladl Stetlslfca (How)
' 127,
* Pf«* p««*tv*s (»*mfe«f btnfetxe*^ MMIW ailiuk
etnorft of tha FaAai at Htsww $ystaa; no wasowt Mfttstamt
industry (Tokyo); sMsout n^isstort ^ conplfar irrf Bureau <tf ft$ GMaui
, . . U*totf SNitw, (ndi
JNOIXCS
fl»r€«, Offtcs ol Bis-lwis EcoMflks
M4KvfecfMr*n'unflHri »rf«f«,
aartaf Bureau flf tt» Census
97, S^kiof ^ capita o^ropdaii<lR$/[wj.f,ufQctu<fm9 (£GO,U!).~rMiQrtal IM-iKtriat Confer
ict Sort; €Wpiiw* iftdwitrits msaaaMialfy adjusted and
to
ottalnsea-
(Mrvi)".-Bowd'of Governors" ol the Federal ReswveSystem
v «M*«.s* producti (lA.viuX-Ociwrtmeflt of Cofitrmrce, Bureau of tfceCensus
\
• ' "
'
-^o* pMG«Ri)t a MMlir Mfcatoa a mala* Mfc, ilipiwlte^ «n"ei»
busies cycle seriesDsar ttttnn wAiriit *a'«tt»M t@tl9 fienn
s. Sia
itow lor Dl, 89« Ot. Wlr OH, 1ftMl, M7, 014, «ri ML
Sources for otter tfiffusiei (wtvm ure i«feltew:j
PNCft, «>-*featISWteMif City !B«* of
DUtotan teteis *t iwaiBal^r
by Hatiwai Banav §1 Iwtwle R^^arcli,
035. tut ioUct total p^ii»feete*«« (Q).-4)«i add Bradstnat, lit.,
DJft, Mew onfert,
justaient
« |ttf.Wi
110,
ol Govenurs of the Federal Ras«rva Systei
111, CC<M* rttoirwd MTAht^t of n online dot
Federal Kesnw System
reigihf eorkodtag* (0&.-^S*OC»atlOII of AMTkiA RslifWdtl, M *ea»ftial M|fct$totit
l^H^Board of Gove^nofs of the
D58, whof««iJ« prices, ™
tics; seasonal adjt33teeHt by Efntau of lha Census
, Bureau of Labor Stitit-
@FedFRASER