Full text of Business Conditions Digest : November 1965
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BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS
November 1965
DATA THROUGH OCTOBER
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
John T. Connor, Secretary
This report was prepared in the Economic Research and Analysis Division under the direction of Julius
Shiskin, Chief. Technical staff and
their responsibilities for the publication are—
Feliks Tamm — Computation of
business cycle measures,
Allan H. Young—New projects,
Barry A. Beckman—Specifications
for computer processing,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and
compilation of basic data,
John C. Musgrave—Selection of
seasonal adjustment methods.
Editorial supervision is provided by
Geraldine Censky of the Administrative and Publication Services Division.
Stuart I. Freeman is responsible for
publication design.
The cooperation of various government and private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged.
The agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and
sources on the back cover of this
report.
Subscription price is $6 a year ($1.50
additional for foreign mailing). Single
issues are 60 cents.
Airmail delivery is available at an
additional charge. For information
about domestic or foreign air mail
delivery, write to the Superintendent
of Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address label.
Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to
U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402, or to any
U.S. Department of Commerce Field
Office.
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Morris H. Hansen, Asst. Director for Research and Development
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
PREFACE
This report brings together many of the available
economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation.
The presentation and classification of series follow the business indicators
approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning dates
are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research
(NBER) which, in recent years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken as implying acceptance
or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle analysis. It is intended
only to supplement other reports of the Department of Commerce that
provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data according to their
usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle and the inclusion of special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons
that help in evaluating the current stage of the business cycle. In addition the movements of the series are shown against the background of the
expansions and contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads"
and "lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical developments
spotted.
About 90 principal series and over 300 components are included
in preparing the report. The exact number of series included for the total
and important classes of series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the basic data are available in published reports. A complete
list of series and the sources of data is shown on the back cover of this
report. Series are seasonally adjusted except those that do not appear
to contain seasonal movement.
The chief merits of this report are the speed with which the data
are collected, assembled, and published and the arrangement of the series
for business cycle studies. Publication is scheduled for around the 22d of
the month following the month of data.
November 7965
DATA THROUGH OCTOBER
Series ESI No. 65-11
New Features and Changes for This Issue
Data Bank of Business Cycle Series
BCD Technical Papers
Descriptions
iii
iv
iv
Procedures
Introduction
Method of Presentation
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
Charts
How to Read Charts 1 and 2
TABLE 1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months
CHART 1. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
TABLE 2. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
1
1
2
2
2
3
4
5
6
8
10
24
Analytical
TABLE
CHART
TABLE
TABLE
3. Distribution of "Highs" for Current and Comparative Periods __
2. Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
4. Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
5. Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components
ABOUT THE COVER—
Series in this publication are grouped according to their usual timing and
shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general
business activity. The cover design illustrates this concept. The black vertical
bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which usually
fall before a contraction has begun and rise before it has ended; the middle
curve, the Coincident Series which usually fall with the contraction period;
the bottom curve, the Lagging Series which fall after a contraction has
begun and rise after it ends.
38
39
42
46
CONTINUED
Cyclical Comparisons
CHART 3. Comparisons of Reference Cycles
TABLE 6. Comparisons From Reference Peak Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
TABLE 7. Comparisons From Reference Trough Levels and Reference
Trough Dates
58
62
63
Appendixes
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the
United States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected
Business Indicators
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business
Cycle Series
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle
Series
Appendix E. Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction
and Expansion Periods of Business Cycles:
1920 to 1961
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series
65
66
67
70
71
72
Index
Series Index to Charts, Tables, and Appendixes
73
it A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings
of business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may
involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation
to other series, changes in components of indexes, etc.
Changes in this issue are as follows:
1. The following revisions have been made in the Cyclical
Comparisons section of the report:
Reference cycle comparisons have been added to chart 3 and
tables 6 and 7 for the series on gross national product in
constant dollars (series 50); index of wholesale prices,
all commodities except farm products and foods (series 55) J
Federal cash surplus or deficit (series 84.); and change in
total money supply and time deposits (series 98).
Chart 4 and table 8, showing specific cycle comparisons,
will no longer be shown during this expansion.
The expansion curves in chart 3 are not shown for the period
after the end of the following recession (indicated by a
circle).
2. Balance of payments data are now shown throughout the
report on an "official settlements" basis (series 89b) in addition to the "liquidity balance" basis (series 89a), previously shown.
3. The series on total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (series 110) and gross retained earnings of nonfinancial corporations (series 111) have
been revised by the source agency for the period 1952 to date.
This revision reflects the incorporation of revised national
income data and the source agency1s annual revision of the
statistics on the basis of more complete information.
4. Appendix
and 111.
includes historical data for series 110
Punch cards containing the X-ll and X-11Q seasonal adjustment
programs, compiled in Fortran IV on Univac 1107 and IBM 7090,
are now available from the Census Bureau. See page iv for
further information and page 75 for order blanks.
Punch cards from our data bank of business cycle series are now
available at lower rates. For further information, see page iv
of this issue.
The December issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is scheduled
for release on December 22.
in
Since October 1965, the Bureau of the Census has been using the X-ll variant
of Census Method II as its standard seasonal adjustment program, replacing
the X-9 and X-10 variants. The X-ll variant is described in Bureau of the
Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census Method II
Seasonal Adjustment Program. An abstract of the paper appeared in the October
1965 issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. A version to adjust
quarterly series (X-11Q) is also available.
The X-ll and X-11Q programs have been compiled in Fortran IV on the
Univac 1107 and the IBM 7090 and may be adapted for use on other large-scale
computers. The X-ll program contains 2,500 Fortran source statements and
requires 23,000 36-bit words of core memory on the 1107. The X-11Q contains
1,500 Fortran statements and requires 15,000 words on the 1107. The programs
will adjust series as short as 3 years and as long as 30 years in length.
Prospective users, particularly those with machines other than the Univac 1107
and the IBM 7090, should study the detailed description of the program in
Technical Paper No. 15 before purchasing it. This program is being adapted
for small computers. Information about such adaptations will be provided
by the Bureau of the Census upon request when it becomes available. However,
the Census Bureau staff will not be available to help resolve problems that
arise in the use of these adaptations. Before purchasing the Fortran deck, please
be sure you can adapt it for your computer.
A program for the computation of diffusion indexes is also available. It contains 450 Fortran statements and requires 16,000 words on the 1107. The
program will accept up to 80 component series of up to 20 years in length for
each index.
Dofo Bank of Business Cycle Series
A punch card file containing data shown in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS for the principal business cycle series included in table 2, the diffusion
indexes in table 4, and the component series (listed in table 5) used to compute
14 of the diffusion indexes is maintained at the Bureau of the Census. Duplicate
cards for 85 of the principal series, the 30 diffusion indexes, and 145 of their
components are available. (The other series may be obtained only from the
sponsoring agencies.) One card is required per series year. (For the few
series where data are not available back to 1948, data will be included beginning
with the first-available year.) The cost for the 85 principal series, from 1948 to
date, is $50. For these principal series plus the 30 diffusion indexes and 145
component series, the cost is $100 for the same period. The series are available
in these two quantities only. The Census Bureau cannot supply special sortings
or tabulations of these data.
The Bureau of the Census cannot keep customers' files current. However, the
figures required for this purpose are published in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS each month.
Copies of the programs, papers, and data may be ordered by using the form on page 75.
iv
INTRODUCTION
Students of economic conditions describe the business
cycle as consisting of alternating periods of expansion
and contraction in production, employment, income,
money flows, prices, and other economic processes.
The fluctuations take place in a concerted manner, but
not simultaneously. Once an expansion gets underway,
it spreads from firm to firm, from industry to industry,
from area to area, and from process to process, cumulating until a cyclical peak in aggregate activity is
reached. Even while expansion is widespread during
the upward phase of the business cycle, some activities
continue to move in the opposite direction. Declines
begin to spread as the expansion nears its peak and
continue to spread even faster after the peak has been
passed. But some activities continue to expand during
the general contraction. Before long these expansions
become stronger and more widespread. When they
begin to dominate the situation, the upturn in aggregate
activity has arrived and a new expansion is underway.
This sequence is recurrent, but not periodic.
The causal relations among these various economic
processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces, and explain why expansion
eventually turns into recession and recession into expansion. Cyclical fluctuations in production and employment are preceded by fluctuations in measures
which relate to future rather than to current production—measures such as new orders for durable goods,
the formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various types of enonomic costs, such as labor costs,
interest rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments,
and holdings of inventories and of debts.
Although this pattern has been characteristic of
American economic history, today many economists
do not consider it inevitable.
Intensive research by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) over many years has provided
a list of those significant series that usually lead, those
that usually move with, and those that usually lag
behind cyclical movements in aggregate economic ac
tivity. The series have been grouped and classified
by the NBER as "leading", "roughly coincident", or
"lagging" indicators. These indicators are defined as
follows:
$*>
NBER Leading Indicators.—Series that usually
reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate
economic activity as measured by the roughly coincident series (see below). One group of these
series pertains to activities in the labor market,
another to orders and contracts, and so on.
^
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series
that are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial
production, and retail sales.
>>
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new
plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning
points after they are reached in aggregate economic activity.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance are
included in this report. Some of these series, such as
change in money supply, merchandise trade balance,
and cash surplus or deficit, represent important factors
in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators
for various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several countries which have important trade relations with the
United States are presented.
The list of series covered and sources of the basic
data are shown on the back cover of this report. Series
numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
METHOD OF
Data are shown in this report in three general categories,
as follows:
!»>
Basic Data (chart 1 and tables 1 and 2).—Data
are shown for business cycle indicators, additional
U.S. series with business cycle significance, and
industrial production indexes for selected countries. Together, they provide a broad view of
current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as well as the basis for
making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
^
Analytical Measures (chart 2 and tables 3 to 5).—
These are measures that aid in forming a judgment of the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, determining the extent of current
changes in different parts of the economy, and
pointing to developments in particular industries
and places.
^'
Cyclical Patterns (chart 3 and tables 6 and 7).—
Current cyclical levels are compared with levels at
corresponding stages of earlier cycles. These comparisons are made in different ways depending
upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular
report, certain appendix materials are presented. These
materials include historical data, key information, and
adjustment factors.
OF
CYCLE
The business cycle turning dates used in this report are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate dates when aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, a business cycle turning date will not be designated until at least 6 months after it has occurred.
Monthly business cycle peaks and troughs have been
dated by the NBER for the period 1854-1961. Over
this span, expansion has prevailed 61 percent of the
time and contraction, 39 percent. If war periods are
disregarded, expansion has prevailed 56 percent of the
time and contraction, 44 percent.
SEASONAL
STATISTICAL ADJUSTMENTS
Adjustments for normal seasonal fluctuations are often
necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical trends
of a series. Such adjustments allow for periodic intrayear variations resulting chiefly from normal differences
in weather conditions during the year and from various institutional arrangements. Some series contain
considerable variation attributable to the number of
working or trading days in each month. An additional
adjustment is necessary in such cases to reduce this
variation. Variations due to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; how-
ever, there are some cases in which a separate holiday
adjustment is necessary for holidays with variable dates.
Such a case is retail sales of apparel which is affected
strongly by the date of Easter and, to a lesser degree, by
the dates of Labor Day and Thanksgiving.
In general, the seasonal adjustment process is designed to adjust for average weather conditions but
not for the dispersion about that average. Thus, some
seasonally adjusted series, such as housing starts, will
tend to be low in months of unusually bad weather and
high during unusually good weather. At the Bureau
of the Census, studies have been started on some series
to determine the effects of abnormal weather. Although it eventually may be possible, Census methods
do not at present make any adjustments for such
variations.
Most of the series contained in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form. Unadjusted data
are used only for those series which appear to have no
pattern of seasonal variation. (Unadjusted series are
identified in table 2.) In most cases, the seasonally
adjusted data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency; therefore, several different methods of seasonal adjustment are involved.
In addition, for the special purposes of business cycle
studies, a number of series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a
seasonally adjusted basis in this report. For these
series, seasonal adjustments have been developed by
either the NBER or the Census Bureau. The adjustment factors for these series, derived by Census Method
II, are shown in appendix D. Factors for series which
are the sums of seasonally adjusted components or
which are based on unpublished source data are not
shown.
MOVING AVERAGES
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate
of the appropriate span over which to observe the cyclical movements in a monthly series. This span is usually
longer than a single month because month-to-month
changes are often dominated by erratic movements, but
shorter than the frequently used 12-month span (change
from the same month a year ago), and is different for
different series (see appendix C for MCD values and
method of computation).
MCD is, on average, the first span of months for
which the average change for the cyclical factor is
greater than that of the irregular factor and remains so.
It is small for smooth series and large for irregular
series. The month-to-month differences between moving averages of the period equal to MCD are commensurate with the differences between seasonally
adjusted values separated by the same MCD span;
thus, the month-to-month differences in a 3-month
moving average are commensurate with differences in
seasonally adjusted values over 3-month spans. MCD
moving averages all have about the same degree of
smoothness. Consequently, MCD moving averages of
highly irregular series, such as business failures and
Federal cash payments, will show their cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data
for such smooth series as industrial production.
MCD moving averages are shown in chart 1 for all
series with an MCD of "5" or more. To provide an
indication of the variation about these moving averages,
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted beginning
with 1958. Although not so smooth as more powerful
moving averages (such as the weighted 13-term Henderson curve), the MCD curve is more current and has a
smaller rounding bias around business cycle peaks and
troughs. On balance, the MCD curve seems to offer a
reasonable compromise in terms of currency, smoothness, and fidelity to the patterns of business cycle fluctuations.
Because of advance reporting and preliminary seasonal factors, the MCD's for current data are usually
larger than those computed from historical series and
shown in appendix C. MCD is usually computed for a
fairly long period, one covering both expansions and
contractions. Since the pace of change varies from
phase to phase of the business cycle, such a measure will
not provide an accurate estimate of the span over which
to estimate cyclically significant changes at all times.
Thus, MCD computed for the period 1953-63 is likely
to be too high during the early stages of recovery when
expansion has usually been rapid and too low during
the late stages of expansion when the rate of advance
has usually been small. This limitation should be borne
in mind when making use of this measure.1
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
OF CURRENT CHANGE
Three kinds of analytical measures are presented—timing distributions, diffusion indexes, and directions of
change. These measures aid in forming a judgment of
the current changes compared to previous changes, the
imminence of a turning point in the business cycle, and
the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also point to developments in particular industries and places.
1
For a more complete description of MCD and its use in
studying economic series, see Business Cycle Indicators,
Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 18, "Statistics for Short-Term Economic
Forecasting," by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press:
1961).
Timing Distributions
Distributions of current "highs" appear to be helpful
in appraising the evidence for a prospective business
cycle turning point. Each month a timing distribution
is constructed. This timing distribution shows the number of series reaching new highs and the percent currently high for each of several recent months (see table
3). Similar distributions of "lows" will be presented
during contractions.
To provide historical perspective for interpreting the
distribution of current highs, such distributions are
also shown for leading and coincident series as they
appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak of
each of the earlier post-World War II expansions and
at their peaks.
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the leading and roughly
coincident business cycle indicators are scanned each
month. During a business cycle expansion, the date of
the high value for each series is recorded. (For inverted
series—that is, series with negative conformity to the
business cycle—dates of low values are taken.) If the
values for 2 or more months are equal, the latest date
is taken as the high month. In selecting these values,
erratic values may be disregarded, although it is, of
course, difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly
for the current month.
The letter "H" is used in table 2 to identify and
highlight the current high values during the expansion.
The highs designated during the current cyclical phase
will not necessarily be the specific cycle peaks. (See
appendix B.) As new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved ahead.
Comparisons of the current timing distributions with
those for periods around earlier business cycle peaks
are helpful for appraising the evidence of a prospective
business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be made
in light of the fact that a contraction following a high
value reached several months ago may be the result
of an erratic fluctuation and that a new high may be
reached in some future month. In short, when the
percent currently high falls below 50 percent for both
the leading and roughly coincident series, this does
not necessarily signify that a business cycle peak has
occurred. It may do so, but it may simply reflect a
short reversal in the upward movement.
Diffusion Indexes
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures of
groups of economic series. They express, for a given
aggregate series, the percent of the series components
which have risen over given spans of time. Their turning points tend to lead the turning points of the
aggregate and they measure how widespread a business
change is. They vary between the limits of 100 (all
components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often associated with
rapid growth and widespread declines with sharp reductions in aggregate activity.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, comparisons are made over 1month spans (January-February, February-March,
etc.) and generally for either 6- or 9-month spans,
depending upon the irregularity of the series. The
indexes based on 1-month spans are more "current"
but they are also more irregular than the 6- or 9month indexes. (See chart 2.) Quarterly series are
compared over 1-quarter spans, 3-quarter spans, and
4-quarter spans.
Recent research has shown that the longer-span
diffusion indexes are not only smoother, but have
systematically larger amplitudes than the 1-month indexes. The 1-month indexes generally have large irregular fluctuations, but the movements may be significant when important changes are taking place, particularly around cyclical turning points. Since the
longer-span diffusion indexes are centered, there is
an apparent loss in currency equal to one-half the
span; for example, 3 months in the case of a 6-month
diffusion index. However, the most recent figure for
a 6-month or longer-span index does provide the latest
available information on changes over that span. If a
significant reversal has taken place within that span,
the 1-month indexes are likely to reveal it. Presentation of both 1-month and longer-span diffusion indexes
provides an opportunity for the user to take advantage
of the best features of each in interpreting current
changes.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D" designate
diffusion indexes. When one of these numbers corresponds to the number of a basic indicator series,
it means that the diffusion index has been computed
from components of the indicator series; for example,
the diffusion index numbered "D6" is computed from
components of series 6. Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series components are assigned new
numbers.
Diffusion indexes that are based on business expectations show what proportion of business enterprises
(or industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a lag
in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion-Index Components
Many of the component series used to make up the
diffusion indexes are shown in table 5. Where possible,
recent basic data for the components are shown in
part A. In part B, directions of change in these
components are indicated for consecutive months and,
depending upon the irregularity of the diffusion index,
for either 6- or 9-month spans. The directions of
change are indicated by " + " for rising, "o" for unchanged, and "—" for falling. (In counting the number of components rising, a "o" is counted as onehalf.)
This table provides a convenient view of changing
business conditions and is helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more
highly aggregated statistical measures. That is, it
shows which economic activities went up, which went
down, and how long such movements have persisted.
The table also helps to show how a recession or recovery spreads from one sector of the economy to
another.
COMPARISONS
OF CYCLICAL
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare the
behavior of the various series in the current business
cycle phase with their behavior during the corresponding phase of previous business cycles. These comparisions are made in different ways depending upon
whether the current cyclical phase is an expansion or
contraction.
Expansions are compared in one way by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels.
In table 6 of this report, data for the latest month
in the current expansion (shown by number of months
from the February 1961 trough) are compared with
the May 1960 reference peak. For each earlier expansion, data for a like period (same number of
months from the trough of the expansion) are compared with the preceding reference peak. This type
of comparison is designated as changes computed
from reference peak levels and reference trough dates.
This type of comparison shows whether, and by how
much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls
short of the level at the preceding business cycle
peak, and how the current situation compares, in this
respect, with earlier expansions. For those earlier
periods of expansion that were shorter than the current
one, the comparisons reflect the status at a point after
a new contraction had set in.
Expansions are also compared by computing changes
from reference trough levels and reference trough dates
(table 7). For the current expansion, this type of
comparison measures the extent of the rise from the
trough level (February 1961) to the level at the current month. For each earlier expansion, data for a
like period (same number of months from the trough of
the expansion) are compared with the level at the
trough. The same situation exists here as for the
comparisons shown in table 6: For earlier expansions
that were shorter than the current one, the comparisons
show the status at a point after a new contraction had
set in.
Contractions can be compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle peak
to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison is
designated as changes from reference peak levels and
reference peak dates. These comparisons will be made
during a contraction period.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on the
basis of reference dates, which are the same for all
series, similar comparisons may be made using the
specific peak and trough dates identified for each series.
(Appendix B lists specific dates for a selected group
of series.) Such comparisons would be based on
changes from specific peak levels and specific trough
dates and on changes from specific trough levels and
specific trough dates. Although these specific cycle
comparisons are not currently included in this report,
they have been shown in previous issues.
Nearly all series have undergone changes in definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since 1919;
therefore, the historical comparisons are to be considered only approximate. Furthermore, it is sometimes necessary to use data for a closely related series
for cycles prior to the period covered by the series
used currently. The principal substitutions of this
type are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1948: Residential building contracts,
floor space, by F. W. Dodge Corp.)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Factory employment)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly data
as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1929: Department
store sales)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing (prior to 1948: Production worker
wage cost per unit).
Two types of charts are used to highlight the cyclical
patterns of the business cycle series: Historical time
series and cyclical comparisons.
Historical Time Series
(charts 1 and 2)
These charts show cyclical fluctuations against the
background of expansions and contractions in general
business activity from 1948 to the current month.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of business cycle contractions between business cycle peak
dates (beginnings of shaded areas) and business cycle
trough dates (ends of shaded areas). The shading for
a new contraction will be entered only after a trough
has been designated.
Several different ratio and arithmetic scales are used
to highlight the cyclical movements of the various series.
The scale selected for each series is identified in the
margin of the chart. Rates of change of various series
can be compared with each other only where scales are
identical. See the diagram, page 6, for additional help
in using these charts.
Cyclical Comparisons
(chart 3)
This chart compares the movements of selected series
during the current business cycle with their movements
through the corresponding phases of previous business
cycles. Actually, it is an extension of the concept behind table 6. While table 6 makes a comparison at
one point in time, chart 3 shows these comparisons
over the course of the whole business cycle. These
comparisons facilitate judgments on the vigor of the
current expansion relative to behavior during the expansions of earlier cycles.
Instead of following the usual date sequence, as in
charts 1 and 2, the data in this chart are alined according to the strategic points of the business cycle.
Each of the included series is separated into four segments which encompass the three complete business
cycles since 1948 and the current expansion. These
segments are alined so that the trough dates all fall at
the same point on the horizontal scale and so that the
levels of the preceding peaks all fall at the same point
on the vertical scale.
A similar chart, based on specific cycle dates, was
previously included in this report but has been discontinued for the present.
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of
recession and beginning of Expansion (white areas) as designated by
NBER.
CHART 1 - Business Cycle Series
See back cover for complete titles
and sources of series.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("12" = December)
Solid line indicates monthly data. N.
(Data may be actual monthly fig>^
ures or MCD moving averages.*)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
("II" = second quarter)
Broken Hne indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average * is plotted.
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.)
30
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. Series plotted to different
scales are not directly comparable.
"Scale A" is an arithmetic scale,
"scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance,
"scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale
with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Arabic number indicates .latest
month for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("12" =
December)
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving averages are plotted IVz, 2, or
2V2 months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See page 2 for a description of MCD moving averages.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ("111" =
third quarter)
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
intervals. This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data.
Section ONE
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive employment and unemployment
New investment commitments
New businesses and business failures
Profits and stock prices
Inventory investment, buying policyf and sensitive prices
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production
Income and trade
Wholesale prices
\GGING INDICATORS
Investment expenditures
Cost per unit of output
Inventories
Debt
Interest rates
OTHER U.S. SERIES
Federal budget and military commitments
Reserves, money supply, and financing
Interest rates
Foreign trade
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Industrial production indexes for selected foreign countries
TABLE
^^
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1965
bed
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
Average percent change 2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers, mfg ....
2 Accession rate, manufacturing
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries
3 Layoff rate manufacturing
4 Temporary layoff all industries
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
6. New orders, durable goods indus ......
24. New orders, mach. and equip, indus
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial.
10. Contracts and orders, plant, equip
11. New capital appropriations, mfg 6
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
29. New bldg. permits, private housing
38 Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
14 Liabilities of business failures
15. Large business failures
16 Corporate profits after taxes6.
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,6 mfg
18 Profits per dol of sales mfg
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries6.
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks*
21. Change in business
inventories, all
industries6'7.
31. Change in book value, manufacturing
and trade inventories7
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inven-7
tories of materials and supplies
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer *
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled7orders, durable
goods industries
23. Industrial materials prices*
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments ..
42. Total nonagri cultural employment
43. Unemployment rate, total
40. Unemployment rate, married males
45. Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate,
State
46. Help- wanted advertising
47. Industrial production
50. GNP in 1958 dollars 6
Unit of
measure
Hours
Per 100 empl . .
Thous
Per 100 empl . .
Thous
do
Bil. dol
do
Mil. sq. ft.
floor space ..
Bil. dol
do
Ann. rate,
thous
1957-59-100..
do
Number
Mil. dol
No. per week . .
Ann. rate,
bil dol
1957-59=100 ..
Cents
Percent
1941-43=10 . . .
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
July
1965
Aug.
1965
40.9
4.1
541
1.7
121
231
22.20
4.35
1953 to Oct. '64 Oct. '64
to date
to date
1963
(without3 (without
(with
4
sign)
sign)5
sign)
Oct.
1965
Sept.
1965
40.9
r4.2
530
rl.6
110
r40.8
P4.3
528
pi. 2
84
248
218
r21 . 51 r21.90
4.16
r4.09
P41.0
(NA)
P553
(NA)
84
July
to
Aug.
1965
Aug.
to
Sept.
1965
0.0
+2.4
-2.0
+ 5.9
+9.1
-0.2
+2.4
-0.4
+25.0
+23.6
+0.5
(NA)
+4.7
(NA)
0.0
Sept.
to
Oct.
1965
0.5
4.8
1.8
9.4
17.8
0.5
4.6
2.9
10.2
18.7
+0.1
+0.8
+0.6
+2.3
-1.8
209
5.3
4.3
+1.3
-7.4
+12.1
+4.1
p21.8l
p4.28
3.8
4.5
2.6
2.8
+0.9
+1.1
-3.1
-4.4
+1.8
-1.7
-0.4
+4.6
9.7
4.9
11.4
11.4
3.8
13.7
+2.4
+1.1
+13.7
-11.3
-5.0
(NA)
+28.0
+3.7
(NA)
(NA)
55.90
5.16
49.60
4.90
(NA)
63.48
P5.08
1,447
109.7
105.3
16,369
120.64
rl,409
107.4
104.2
16,957
128.98
rl,432
rlO^.l
104.8
17,138
108.56
pi, 371
P109.3
(NA)
(NA)
85.67
7.3
3.8
1.0
2.7
16.9
3.7
3.7
0.8
2.1
25.1
-0.6
+0.1
-0.2
+0.4
-3.6
-2.6
-2.1
-1.0
+3.6
-6.9
+1.6
-3.1
+0.6
+1.1
+15.8
-4.3
+5.0
(NA)
(NA)
+21.1
39
45
43
35
13.1
13.0
+0.1 -15.4
+4.4
+18.6
104.0
P44.8
103.4
(NA)
r!02.3
P103.1
5.7
0.6
6.8
6.1
0.6
8.9
+6.1
+0.2
+3.8
-1.1
+0.8
4.4
4.2
+3.7
2.6
1.7
+0.6
+1.9
+3.3
+2.2
2.3
1.3
-0.5
-0.6
(NA)
(NA)
P13.0
84.91
86.49
89.38
91.39
+6.1
+0.9
-0.6
(NA)
0.0
do
+11.6
r+8.1
p+0.7
(NA)
3.5
5.3
0.0
-3.5
-7.4
(NA)
do
+0.7
r+1.4
P+3.6
(NA)
1.5
1.7
-0.1
+0.7
+2.2
(NA)
57
60
58
45
6.8
5.3
-1.8
+5.3
-3.3
-22.4
do
62
63
61
63
5.8
2.5
+0.5
+1.6
-3.2
+3.3
do
62
64
62
60
7.7
4.9
-1.4
+3.2
-3.1
-3.2
+0.38
114.6
r+0.32
115.2
r+1.01
114.8
p+0.79
115.0
0.49
1.3
0.34
1.0
-0.02
+0.2
-0.06
+0.5
+0.69
-0.3
-0.22
+0.2
r60,685 r60,796
67,821
67,777
4.5
4.4
2.6
2.2
p6l,019
67,935
4.3
2.1
0.3
0.4
3.9
5.6
0.4
0.4
3.6
6.5
+0.4
+0.3
+1.5
+2.3
+0.1
-0.4
0.0
-13.0
+0.2
-0.1
+2.2
+15.4
+0.4
+0.2
+2.3
+4.5
2.7
4.8
3.4
+1.8
0.0
+3.3
+6.9
3.1
1.1
3.0
0.9
+2.3
+0.7
+4.8
+0.1
+5.3
-1.0
+4.4
+0.4
1.2
1.5
1.3
1.4
1.9
1.9
+1.4
+1.9
+1.9
+1.4
+1.7
+1.8
1.5
0.5
0.8
0.8
1.6
0.8
0.8
1.5
+0.9
+0.6
+0.7
+1.0
-0.1
+0.3
+0.6
-0.8
+0.1
+2.6
+0.1
+1.0
+1.5
-1.0
+0.8
+0.8
0.?
n.i
+D.1
+n ?
+D.1
-n.i
Percent
Bil. dol
1957-59=100 . .
Thous
do
Percent
do. ...
do
60,602
68,092
4.5
2.3
3.0
3.0
2.9
1957-59=100 . .
152
160
pl67
145
. . do.
r!43.0
P143.6
144.2
r!44.4
Ann. rate,
bil dol
r609.7
6
do.. :.
49 GNP in current
dollars
r677.5
6
do
57. Final sales
r671.3
do
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except N.Y
3,021.0 3,018.8 3,022.6 p3,068.9
do
52. Personal income
532.0
P540.2
r545.7
530.5
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr . . .
do
142.5
p!44.7
143.3
r!43.5
54. Sales of retail stores
Mil. dol
23,743 r23,544 r23,774 p23,959
55. Wholesale prices, except farm products
and foods
1957-59=100..
102.9
n!02.8
102.8
102.6
Current percent change2
bed
TABLE
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7965
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS—Continued
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unitof
measure
July
1965
Aug.
1965
Sept.
1965
Oct.
1965
rlOO . 8
plOO.6
1953 to Oct. '64 Oct. '64
to date to date
1963
(with 5
(without (without4
signp sign)
sign)
Current percent change2
July
to
Aug.
1965
Aug.
to
Sept.
1965
Sept.
to
Oct.
1965
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and
equipment6.
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
68. Labor 6cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories of
finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans*
Ann. rate,
bil dol
1957-59-100 ..
98.8
do
Bil. dol
65.4
do
Mil. dol
22.5
62,922
a51.15
99.8
3.2
0.6
2.3
0.6
+2.3
0.0
+1.6
+1.0
+1.0
-0.2
65.8
P 66.2
(NA)
0.8
0.5
0.8
0.6
+0.1
+0.6
+0.4
+0.6
+0.6
(NA)
22.5
p22.6
64,214
(NA)
(NA)
0.8
0.8
0.6
1.0
+0.3
+1.0
0.0
+1.0
+0.4
+1.1
(NA)
(NA)
2.3
0.4
0.0
3.7
4.1
4.4
5.9
5.4
11.7
+0.6
+0.3
-0.6
p!06.6
63,531
Percent
5.00
+0.2
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
82 Federal cash payments to public
83. Federal cash receipts from public
84 Federal cash surplus or deficit 7
95. Balance, Federal
income and product
account 6 ' 7
90 Defense Dept. oblig procurement
91 Defense Dept. obligations total
92 Military contract awards in U S
99. New orders, defense
products
93. Free reserves-*7
85 Change in money supply
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do
do
do
Mil dol
954
do
do
Bil. dol
Mil. dol
Ann. rate,
percent
98. Change in 7money supply and time
deposits
110 Total private borrowing 6
Ill
112
113.
114
115
116
117
do
Ann. rate,
mil dol
do
Corporate gross savings 76
Change, business loans
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
do. ...
Change consumer installment debt 7 . . .
Treasury bill rate*
Percent
do
Treasury bond yields *
do.
Corporate bond yields*
do
Municipal bond yields*
118 Mortgage yields *
86. Exports, excluding military aid
87 General imports
88 Merchandise trade balance 7
89. U.S. bal ance of payments 6 ' 7 :
a Liquidity balance basis 8
b Official settlements basis
81. Consumer prices
94. Construction contracts value
96. Unfilled orders, dur. goods indus
97 Backlog of capital appro mfg.
120.2
122.1
+1.9
do
Mil. dol
do
. ... do
-7.6
P-4.1
1,893
1,619
(NA)
2.4
26.9
3.6
48.7
5,276
2,465
r3.31
r-155
(NA)
(NA)
p2.88
P-149
15.1
26.2
23.0
104
11.1
16.5
13.4
64
+7.7
-0.2
-9.5
+6.3
-0.4
-8.7
-10.0
-6.8
+5.6
-1.0
-6.9
+20.6 +98.4
-14.5
(NA)
4,258
2,699
2.62
-175
5,223
2,770
r2.8l
+5.16
+1.44
+11.76
pf9.48
3.06
6.67
+0.41
+9.72
+10.80
+12.24
p+12.96
2.51
3.01
+0.37 +1.08 +1.44 +0.72
11.6
4.3
7.4
5.3
+2.8
+5.1
-6.9
+3.1
1.22
0.85
7.3
1.8
1.7
2.6
2.88
1.04
1.7
0.5
0.7
1.7
+0.32
+0.30
+1.0
+0.2
+0.4
+0.4
-4.47
-0.68
+0.3
+1.0
+2.0
-0.9
0.6
4.6
3.6
59.0
0.1
17.9
10.1
272.6
267
(NA)
782
348
+294
+348
-732
+ 50
0.2
7.0
1.5
6.6
0.2
5.7
1.0
6.8
+0.1
+0.9
+1.0
+6.8
0.0
-6.7
+0.6
-136
p63,132
p57,2l6
+10.00
+7.99
3.83
4.15
4.57
3.27
5.44
2,262.8
1,669.8
+593.0
do
do
1957-59-100 . .
do
Bil. dol
do
P123.9
P113.2
p-10.7
137.7
121.4
-16.3
129.5
121.9
+ 5.53
+7.31
3.84
4.19
4.66
3.24
+4.00
+8.20
3.91
4.25
4.71
3.35
5.46
5.45
2,345.7 2,297.7
1,725.4 1,786.8
+620.3
+510.9
P+5.33
(NA)
4.03
4.28
4.69
3.40
5.49
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
p-485
p+260
110.0
149
57.83
110.0
139
r58.15
110.1
147
r59.l6
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
P59.95
+4.0 +22.7 +1.0
+ 5.3 +2.6 -11.0
+7.3 +17.8
+2.9
-21
-19
+39
(NA)
(NA)
-13.0
+6
-3.72 +10.32
-2.28
-1.53 +1.33
(NA)
+0.89
+1.8
+3.1
+0.7
+1.4
+1.1 -0.4
+1.5
+3.4
+0.1 +0.2
+0.2
-2.0
+3.7
+4.5
+3.6
+2.3
+3.3
-8.8 +27.3 -109.4
+0.1
+5.8
+1.7
(NA)
+0.5
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+1.3
r = revised; p = preliminary; e = estimated; a = anticipated; NA = not available. 1Series are seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by an asterisk (*),
that appear to contain no seasonal movement. See additional basic data and notes in table 2. 2 To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually
fall when general business activity rises and rise when busine'ss falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3,4,5,14,15, 40, 43,
and 45). Percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; see footnote 7 for other "change'' qualifications.
^his average is based on month-to4
month
(or
quarter-to-quarter)
changes
without
regard
to
sign.
The
period
varies
among
the
series,
covering
1953-63
for
most
series.
Average
computed without regard to sign.
5
Average computed with regard to sign.
Quarterly series. Figures are placed in the middle month of quarter. 7Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus
or
8
minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed inthe same unit of measure
as the basic data, rather than in percent.
This
9
balance represents a provisional estimate by the Department of Commerce on the basis of official settlements.
Figures are placed in the last month of quarter.
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7965
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
10
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
42
41
40
39
2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)
6
5
4
3
30. Nonagri. placements, all indus. (thous.)
700 ^
600 -^
500 |
400
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employeesinverted scale)
1
7
**:
a»
^t
3
4. Temp, layoff, all indus. (thous.-inverted
scale. MCD moving avg.-5 term)
75
100
125
2
150
175
2
200
225
250
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State unempl.
insur. (thous.-inverted scale)
200
°?
300 |
400
SOD
bed
NOVEMBER
CHART
7965
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
investment commitments
30
25
6. New orders, dur. goods Indus, (bil. dol.)
20
2
15
1
10
5
24. New orders, mach. and equip. Indus, (bil.
4
dol.)
CO
•«j
9. Constr. contracts, com. and Indus, (mil. sq. ft, of
floor areanilCD moving avg.-6 term)
0
co
2
70
60
50
2
40
1
30
7
6
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol.)
3
appropriations, mfg., Q (bil. dol.)
7
6
5
:
:
'
4
^
7. Private nonfarm housing starts (ann.rate, millions.
?! 2.0
MCD moving: avg.-6 term)
1.0
29. New bldg. permits, private housing units
1957-59=100)
160
140
120
100
1
80
war*®rxfy?**tft
^tiiisffi'i
11
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7965
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
38.
Index df net business formation (1957-59=100)
13. New bus. incorporations (thous.)
a
20
18
16
CO
14
12
10
7;
1
8
-r 20
14. Liab. of bus. failures (mil. dol.inverted scale. MCD moving av<jj-6 term)
- 40
60 •§
80 ;
100
120
140
160
15. Large biis. failures (no. per wk.-*
inverted!scale. MCD moving avg.-6 term]
20
30 2
40
50
60
§
bed
CHART
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7965
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Corportrtefproffts 'offer topees, Q (ann. rote, bil.dot.)
,
35
4>
H 30 ^
17. Ratio, H i j o unit labor cosj^mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)
of saks, nvf§.r 0 (cents)
to income originating, corporal
all ihdustriesL Q (percent)
19. Stock priols, 500 common stocks.j
index: 19ft43=10)
"flow te Resil Ctarts 1 sid 2." pj^c fi
13
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7965
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
ventory investment, buying policy, and sensitive prices
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
14
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
21. Change in bus. inventories, ail Indus., Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
+10
0
31. Change in book value, mfg. and
trade inventories (ann. rate, bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.-4 term)
-10
HO
0
20. Change in book value, mfrs.' inventories of
materials and supplies (ann. rate, bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.-5 term)
-10
j[
+4
0
J-4
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
75
50
-I 25
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
75
50
25
percent reporting slower deliveries
75
50
25
+2
-2
160
140
23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59=100)
120 2
100 -I
80
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7965
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
65
Employment and unemployment
60
41. Employees in nonagri. establishments (millions)
55
75
70
42. Total nonogri. employment (millions)
65
60
55
43. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale)
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(percent-inverted scale)
3
4
5
6
7
8
1
2
3
5
6
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate, State
(percent-inverted scale)
2
3
4
6
7
46. Help-wantedI advertising (index: 1957-59=100)
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
15
DATA
bed
NOVEMBER 1965
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-CONTINUED
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q (ann. rate,
bil. dolT)
49. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
J 250
:iJ*l;U^
•£
bed
NOVEMBER
7965
BASIC DATA
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT —Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
B
3.4
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except New York (ann. rate, tril. dol.)
2.4
2.2
2.0
600
550
500
450
52. Personal income
ann. rate, bil. dol.)
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr
ann. rate, bil. dol.)
400
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
26
24
22
54. Sales of retail stores (bil. dol.)
20
18
16
^ 14
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods (index: 1957-59=100)
110
100 ^
Wholesale prices
90
§
17
CHART
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1965
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
60
50
Investment expendil
61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
40
2
30 H
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)
Cost per unit of output
68. Labor cost per dol. of real corp. GNP, Q (index: 1957-59=100)
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories (bit dol.)
110
105
100
95
90
85
110
105
100
95
90
70
60
50
40
25
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.)
2
H
^»
4
20 S
15
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)
bed
CHART
NOVEMBER 1965
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
140
Federal budget ar
commitments
82. Fed. cash payments to public (ann. rate, bii. dol.
MCD moving avg.-6 term)
120
100
140
120
83. Fed. cash receipts from public (ann. rate, bil. dol
MCD moving avQ.^6 term)
100
80
J
84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit [(ann. rate, bil. dol.
6-term moving avg.)
60
MO
0
9
95. Surplus or deficit, Fed. income and
product acct., Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.
+10
0
J
-10
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bil. doL
MCD moving av9--6 term)
91. Defense Dopt. obiig., total (bil.
MCD moving avg.-6 term)
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
dol.
92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil.
MCD moving avg.^6 term)
dol.
, P.
i
»
99. New orders, defense pro.ducts (bil. dol.
MCD moving avg.-6 term)
i
/
*«^j£S5sttrf^*tyj»*,*"'
19
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7965
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
93. Free reserves (bil.
85. Change in money }upply (ann. rate, percent.
MCD moving avg. —6 t^rm
98. Change in money supply ancT time Deposit's
20
. rate, percent.,MCD moving avg. -6 term)
110. Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rale, bil. qol.)
Corporate gross savings, Q^ann. rote, bU
112. Change in business; loans (pnn. rate, bil. aol
MCD moving avg.-$ term) !
;
113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann.
rate, bil. dol.)
See "How to Read Charts 1 y$ 2." case £
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7965
CHART
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
114. Treasury bill rate (percent)
;
-1 -
115. Treasury bond: yields I percent)
Sf° 'How ts K(,ad Charts 1 ai;ii 2,' m* 5
21
CHART
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1965
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
86, Exportv -exc, military aid JbiL
87. General imports (bil. dol.)
SB. Merchandise trade balance (bil. dol.)
89, U.S. balance df rpayments, Q (bil. dol.)
- -- —
i
,..,., ,
, j.
-0. -tttitftdttf btrtantrirasrs
81 Consumfix prices (index: 1957,59=100)
94. Construction contracts, value Jind^x: 1957-59=]|00
MCD ;moving avg.-5 term
.Qisfers, .dyr, 5.oodl.indus^[biL do).}
97. Backlog of" cap. appropriafrons, mfg., Q (felt, dot.)
bed
bed
CHART
NOVEMBER 7965
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
International
Industrial production indexe
47. United States {index: 1957-59=100)
121. OECD European countries (index: 1957-59=100)
125. West Germany [index: 1957-59=100)
126. FranmUndex: 1957-59=100)
Comparisons
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and month
1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
(Hours)
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
3. Layoff rate,
30. Nonagricultural placements, manufacturing
all industries
(Thous.)
(Per 100
employees)
4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff, al| industries1
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State
programs 2
6. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable
goods industries
24. Value of manufacturers' new
orders, machinery
and equipment
industries
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
1962
4.0.1
40.4.
40.5
40.6
40.4
40.4
40 5
40.3
40.5
40.2
40.4
40.3
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.2
4.0
4 2
4.0
3 9
3.9
3.8
3.8
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June . .
July
August
September
October
November
December
40.5
40.3
40.4
40.1
40.4
40.5
40.4
40.4
40.5
' 40.6
40.5
40.7
3.8
3.8
3.8
4.0
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.8
3,8
3.9
3.7
4.0
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
40 2
4-0.7
40.6
40.7
40 6
40.6
40.6
40 8
4-0 5
40.5
40.9
41.2
41 4.
41.3
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
JE41.-4
4.0.9
41.1
41.0
40.9
40.9
r40.8
p41.0
557
1.8
557
569
569
1.9
2.3
1.9
2.1
2.0
1.9
135
88
118
107
126
124
128
127
127
125
133
120
301
295
287
283
301
304
303
305
300
304
299
310
17.70
17.70
17 15
17.02
17 22
16 65
16 91
16.59
16 55
17 29
16.73
17 33
3 15
3.30
2 97
3.31
3 10
3 02
3 07
2 94
2 98
3 05
3 16
3 07
552
554
555
557
546
545
541
543
553
575
533
525
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.7
152
121
107
138
95
92
131
130
108
135
134
97 -
310
301
288
293
288
284
281
290
285
282
276
301
18 47
18 23
18.78
19 04
18.74
17.68
18.28
18.06
18.24
18.62
18.11
17.97
3 25
3 21
3 22
3 35
3.42
3.29
3.33
3.31
3.42
3.44
3 27
3.61
3 8
4 0
4.0
3.9
3 8
4 1
4 0
4 0
3 8
4 0
4 1
4 1
534
532
522
519
526
520
523
502
516
519
549
518
17
18
18
17
17
116
125
98
284
270
277
265
262
1 Q 11
?
3
?
?
A?
/"i
/6
Al
o
no
•5
qp
4 0
4- 1
4 3
3 9
4 0
THI A 5
4 1
r4 2
p4 3
(NA)
520
548
527
531
529
549
541
530
528
JHQ586
561
557
553
551
557
565
543
p553
17
1.8
2.0
2.0
2 1
1*6
2 0
1 /
15
17
15
16
1 /
13
13
i ^
14
i/
17
rl 6
[HJP! 2
CNA")
122
111
121
118
on
121
92
8Q
1 OQ
2^7
260
? 11
^ / z.
P/q
262
pen
[TJJ7Q
p/ o
1 ?/
110
117
248
???
??7
??/
pp/
102
140
121
110
#/
#/
pQ-|
248
218
nriPOQ
~IQ
19
20
1Q
20
p-i
1Q
1q
60
26
46
Q/
02
pc
?/
q-i
19 62
1Q / 6
PP) np
PI p7
pi 1 Q
Q oo
q 1717
q Aq
Q oq
o ££
q qp
21 71
22 04
q qA
j.yo
Q #n
/ 09
i n&
20 QQ
y 07
pi
qi
fSlpp pn
-ppl £-1
-PP1 nn
•npl £-1
/ OQ
fin/
"3^
uU4. J5
/ lA
W
DQ
r4. uy
•n/
P£
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter fo movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Beginning with April 1962, the I960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to April 1962, the
2
1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
24 Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1962
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and industrial buildings
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
(Bil. dol.)
11. Newly approved 7. New private
capital appropria- nonfarm dwelling
tions, 1,000 manu- units started
facturing corporations *
(Bil. dol.)
33 70
42 75
45 90
-42.72
44.64
41.16
3 71
3 98
3 71
3 03
3.96
3.76
3.66
2 53
40 56
3 72
42.69
40.96
41.08
42.20
41 . 89
3.61
3.56
3.66
3.82
3.99
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
44.61
45.11
39.42
40.23
47.00
51.39
45.78
44.93
43 88
50.81
43.73
45.43
3.84
3.82
3.75
3.98
4.28
3.96
1964
January
February
51 07
51 05
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
/ # /I
53.48
46.22
47 82
52.62
47.72
51.41
53.75
49.61
58.88
2 81
3.35
29. Index of new*
private housing
units authorized
by local building
permits
38. Index of net
business formation
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59-100)
1 470
1 296
1 422
1 494
1 515
1 365
1 409
1 531
1,300
1,410
1 634
1 521
103 8
109 1
104 0
111.9
103 8
106 1
108 7
107 1
109.1
107.2
113.0
112 0
97 2
97 8
98 1
1 285
1 /?#
1 486
1 AS9
l A7A
i ssn
111 8
108 2
112 9
113.6
120 0
119 3
116 5
113 5
121 0
123 6
119 9
123 7
(Ann, rate,
thous.)
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
(Number)
14. Current
liabilities of
business failures
(Mil. dol.)
15,599
15 758
15 670
15,372
15 245
14,947
15 171
15,056
15,249
14,892
14,951
14,985
101 53
86 03
77 40
107.15
89 80
93.15
107 98
121.85
106.02
129.87
96.62
99.61
6
0
7
7
4
7
4
8
14,924
15,390
15,563
15,305
15 682
15 536
15 431
16 093
l *> 6$Q
16 275
15 759
15 867
146.46
93 05
94.12
88.15
115 05
91 07
144 50
O 52 86
Q/ 59
99 92
255 72
87 17
i o? i
1 A 9^0
QI AQ
1 H.9 $
1 O9 Q
iA m A
"1 1 Q 9Q
1 ^ 77
QQ9
19,
<C
inn A*7
107 10
97.8
97
97
97
98
8
6
7
4
98.5
98.5
98.0
98 3
1963
2 80
3 30
1
3 94
3.91
3 72
4 08
4.17
4.32
i vnA
4.10
4 56
4 38
/ l/
/ 11
4.36
4.63
131,753
1,706
4 81
1, 571
i ^nA
-i
IQf-,
1 ,470
-I
£TQ O
1
, 97 J
5 00
1 n c.
1 ,4
'9
; C>Q
1,4oV
4.52
I, 479
1 / #n
4.52
4.51
4.56
4.92
4.94
1 SQ9
1
^99
1, 9<c<c
?Q
/
4 64
4 53
en /
1 £199
1 A7A
1
/ 99
/ Q C
116 8
FTTH 9/
m
A
>7
113 6
112 9
lisi
111 5
11 ? /
109 7
109 1
110 8
105 4
"l
cr^c;
1
/ -i 17
m
1
/ A&
-i
/ £r
108.0
112. 0
104.7
98.9
100 2
100.5
99.2
99
100
100
101
101
101
101
101
104
104
103
102
102
105
107
106
106
4
7
2
5
9
0
0
4
6
16 180
15
1S
15
1A
16
Q17
Ql Q
Q7Q
07/
605
Q7
1 ^A
195
on
Q9
1Q
1 /
QQ
118 59
l A /en
Q7 Q8
17 103
17 154
111 00
126 49
1965
January
February
March
April
May
, y
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
53
58
54
[RJ64
56
20
12
04
26
13
SS 9#
/
79
/
f^n
l
07
I Q£
c no
/ &1
55 90
49 60
rzri c -l (^
/ £
nc: n#
A"}
(NI\]
/
OQ
4-77
4 90
CNA }
.. .
rm TI^ & i
ljH]p9.o4
1,4O9
1 C OO
,9J2
i
£m
1,
901
1
1
/TVT/\ N
IJMJ
C or\
, 9J9
1 1 r-j
,44/
T«1 ,/4UV
HQ
ri
T»! / "5 O
ri,4J^
-_-|
qrn
pl, J5Y1
Q
109.4
110.6
109.7
107.4
r!04..1
p!09.3
[HFJ107. 3
i
,-,/• /•
lUO.D
-] r\r
n
-1 pi Q
/I
1U9 . (~)
1UJ. D
104.3
17,275
QjJ17,367
17,112
16,504
16,043
16,671
i / o/ r>
16,369
16,957
17,138
-, /•
105.4
105.3
in/
o
1U4. 2
104. 8
/vrn N
(NA)
/r-»n
/T.T. N
(NA)
84. 54
107. 57
T14o
) A . OQ
*:V
riQ
C1
7V. 91
1
QQ . HQ
1J9
U9
1
QC .DD
£.£
1:59
i Qp, / /
1 <:U . b4
-i ort Q rt
l^o. Vo
108. 56
rtr
/Ir;
09 . b7
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The Hr" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a
recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products."
(See NICE publication Investment Statistics - Capital
Appropriations: First Quarter 1965.)
25
TABLE
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
15. Number of
business failures
with liabilities of
$100,000 and over
(Number per
week)
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
37
30 7
[ED 3 2
36
38
38
41
38
45
40
46
42
37
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
49
43
42
40
51
38
39
42
43
42
38
38
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
41
41
38
44
39
39
44
40
42
42
42
40
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
. '
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
16. Corporate
profits after taxes
35
40
42
33
4-7
47
39
45
43
35
30.9
31 5
31 8
31 2
32.6
32.8
33.8
36.7
37.0
37.5
37.8
44.0
44 4
HHij p44 8
17. Ratio, price to
unit labor cost
index, manufacturing
18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manufacturing corporations
22. Ratio of profits
to income originating, corporate,
all industries
(1957-59-100)
(Cents)
(Percent)
100 . 9
101.0
101.2
100.1
100.1
99.7
100.2
100.0
100.7
100.2
100.4
99.9
99 7
100.1
100.5
100 8
101.3
102.2
101.7
100.9
101.0
101.5
100.8
100.8
101.6
101.9
101.3
101.9
101.7
100.8
101.2
101.6
100.8
100.6
101.8
102.6
102
102
102
102
102
103
IJ1J104
103
r!02
p!03
5
2
8
5
8
3
0
4
3
1
8.4
11.3
8.1
11.1
8.1
11.2
8.1
11.1
8.1
10 8
8.5
11 2
8.6
11.2
8.8
11.3
9.0
11.9
8.9
11.7
9.0
11.7
8.7
11.7
i]H]9 8
Q ?
'Jl3l3 1
1^0
19. Index of stock 21. Change in
prices, 500 common business inventories
stocks*
after valuation adjustment, all industries
(1941-43=10)
69.07
70 22
70 29
68.05
62.99
55.63
56.97
58.52
58.00
56.17
60.04
62.64
65.06
65 92
65.67
68 76
70.14
70.11
69.07
70.98
72 85
73.03
72.62
74 17
76.45
77.39
78.80
79.94
80 72
80.24
83.22
82.00
83.41
84.85
85.44
83 96
86
86
86
87
12
75
83
97 '
#Q 9&
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
+6 7
+6.1
+5.2
+6.4
+4 5
+4.7
+5.8
+8..1
+3.3
+4 1
+3 8
+7.5
Oil +8 7
+6 7
#c r\i
CNA^
nl ? 0
&/
£A
£Q
mlQl
Ql
/Q
^#
?Q
+6 1
1 09 i-\
7<c« 41
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by ED; for series that move counter'to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by (H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
"""Average for November 16, 17, and 18.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
26Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
1962
31. Change in
book value of manufacturing and
trade inventories,
total
20. Change in
book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies x
37. Purchased
materials, percent
reporting higher
inventories
26. Production
materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or
longer*
32. Vendor performance, percent
reporting slower
deliveries*
25. Change in unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
23. Index of industrial materials
prices*
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil. dol.)
(1957-59=100)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
+6.0
+ 5.1
+6 0
+2.6
+7.1
+ 5.6
+ 3.9
+2.0
+ 5.6
+ 5.5
+1.2
+5.1
1963
January
February
March
April
May
+3.1
+2.5
+3.0
+4.6
+2.7
+5.1
+6.0
+1.8
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
+ 5.6
+7.1
+9.6
+7.2
+1.9
+3.0
+2.7
+0.8
+1.0
+0.2
-2.4
-0.3
+1.8
-0.2
+0.5
-1.7
60
57
56
59
58
54
51
4?
44
45
43
46
50
49
61
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
52
5"1
56
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
48
48
+0.6
+0.4
-0.2
+0.9
-0.3
+0.7
-0.5
+1.7
-0.4
+1.7
47
48
47
48
55
56
55
50
49
46
43
43
50
55
54
53
52
57
54
55
56
53
54
55
50
52
54
60
58
54
42
48
52
48
48
46
-1 9
0 5
0 0
42
50
-1.0
-0.1
-0.7
-1.6
53
51
55
57
56
60
58
60
58
53
54
56
59
58
59
58
58
61
60
64
65
55
54
60
60
63
55
59
65
-0 2
-0.7
'
+0.63
+0.62
-0.67
-0.34
-0.46
-0.37
-0.25
-0.60
-0.36
+0.21
-0.40
+0.91
102.9
100.6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95.4
94.2
94.5
94.0
94.9
96.4
95.8
+0.96
+0.68
+0.94
+0.85
+0.33
-0.58
-0.54
-0.05
+0.38
+0.10
-0 09
-0.40
95.5
95.1
94.4
94.5
95.2
93.9
94.2
94.2
94.1
96.3
+o 40
98 5
98 5
97 3
97.7
1964
January
+5 I
+2 3
Marrh
Apri 1
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
-f? 7
+8.0
+4.3
+2.2
+1.2
+2.9
+1.3
+2.6
+4.3
+3.5
+2.0
+10.7
+0.4+9.4
(B3+U.6
+11 2
+1 0
+0 4
+2 5
+5 0
+13 8
+8 7
+9 4
_i_£
_|-1
-0
+0
r+1
p+3
+6.1
+11.6
r+8.1
p+0.7
Q
C
5
7
4
6
(NA)
(NA)
t^i
60
61
^
Ah
[H]74
72
70
66
A£
n?
^7
fwlA£
66
[HJ6l
A7
79
An
ca
AC;
A9
c;7
6?
A^
60
^£
/^
An
Ao
7O
+0 57
+0 16
+1.04
+0.38
+0.81
[y]+1.26
+0 06
+0 77
+1.00
+0.27
+0.55
if)
-30
. n #i
in / 1
if)
Ol
if)
CJfi
i_f)
CC>
Q# Q
102.4
100.9
101.4
102.5
105 7
108 2
112.0
113 2
112 5
11 n A
i "i n 7
11 O
0
11 A 7
mil 11 A Q
11 c o
AA
A9
A
04/
rM-n
"39
A
m
-lie; 9
A9
An
rM-i m
•rvl-n 7Q
lie n
4_ n q#
1 1/ &
2-i -i r ^
IIP . 2
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
[HJ = December 1961.
3
Average for November 15, 16, and 17.
27
TABLE
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER
1965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
41. Number of employees, in nonagricultural establishments
(Thous.)
42. Total non43. Unemployment
agricultural employ- rate, totalI
ment, labor force
survey1
(Thous.)
(Percent)
40. Unemployment
rate, married
males1
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment rate,
State programs2
46. Index of helpwanted advertising
in newspapers
47. Index of industrial production
(Percent)
(Percent)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59=100)
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
54,695
55,003
55,162
55,411
55,502
55,565
55,657
55,673
55,767
55,802
55,874.
55,881
61 ,948
62 162
62,234
62,167
62,565
62 693
62,623
63,015
63,147
63,070
62,921
63,336
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
55,900
56,044
56,187
56,368
56,511
56,601
56,763
56,768
56,868
57,070
57,101
57,291
63,133
63,230
63,487
63,708
63,613
63,825 •
64,055
64,089
64,253
64,205
64,371
64,449
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.8
5.5
3 7
3.7
3 5
3 4
3.4
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.3
57,334
57,684
57,754
57,827
57,931
58,104
58,256
58,301
58,458
58,382
58,878
59,206
64,685
65,051
65,175
65,695
65,790
65,519
65,632
65,641
65,650
65,658
66,084
66,463
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.3
5.0
5.1
5.1
5.2
4.9
5.0
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.8
2 7
2 6
2.8
2.9
2 4
2 6
59,334
59,676
59,992
59,913
60,110
60,382
60,602
r60,685
r60,796
[njp6l,019
66,771
66.709
66,890
66,874
66,979
67,459
068,092
67 , 821
67,777
67,935
4.8
5.0
4.7
4.9
4.6
4.7
4.5
4.5
4.4
2 7
2.6
2 5
2. 5
2 5
2 4
2 3
2 6
2 2
©2 1
5 8
5 5
5 5
5.6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
7
6
4
5.8
5 5
5 7
5.9
5 7
3 7
3 3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
6
7
5
7
6
7
5
5
5
5
4 7
/, 5
1 1 /,
1 1 c.
z z
1 i c.
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
9
8
0
2
4
4
5
6
7
112
114
109
110
108
107
107
107
4
4
4
4
4
8
6
4
2
2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4 0
4.0
4.1
4 3
e!07
115 0
116 4
m £
118 0
118 2
118 1
119 0
119 o
11 q 7
1 1Q 1
119 8
119 4
109
105
104
109
105
107
111
112
118
119 8
120 6
1 ?1 Q
122 7
124 4
125 6
125.6
125 4
125 7
126 1
126 1
127 0
116
117
118
120
118
121
124
123
126
127
134
137
127 9
128 4
129 3
130 8
131 8
132.0
133.3
134.0
134.0
131.6
135.4
138.1
e!07
e!09
e!08
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February. ........
March
April
May.
June.
July
August
September
October
November
December
LEI 4. 3
4.3
4.0
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.6
3 6
3 5
3.4
3 4
3 4
3 6
3 4
3.3
3 1
3 1
2.9
2 9
3.0
3 0
2.9
02 7
137
145
148
143
145
146
1ZS
l ^
160
[H3pi67
138
139
140
140
141
142
144
6
2
7
9
6
7
2
[n]rl44 4
r!43 0
rfl Z 3 6
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by ED; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
b y ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Beginning with April 1962, the I960 Census is used as the benckmark for computing this series.
Prior, to April 1962, the
2
1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
28Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Year and month
50. Gross
49. Gross
national product national product
in 1958 dollars in current
dollars
1962
January
February
March
April
Mav
, "
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
519.7
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
547.8
57. Final sales 51. Bank debits,
(series 49 minus allSMSA's exseries 21)
cept New York
(224 SMSA's)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
541 1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
533.6
538.5
557.2
564.4
572.0
551 1
559.2
565.6
53. Labor income 54. Sales of
in mining, manu- retail stores
facturing, and
construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
2,260.6
430 7
"l~l /
2 155 9
2,233 1
/ 33 7
/, 37 2
/ 39 8
116 7
118 3
2 299 6
527.9
52. Personal
income
2 266
2 249
2 311
2 268
2 236
2 340
2,351
2 324
6
9
3
8
7
7
5
9
2
2
2
2
416
345
357
472
2
9
2
5
2
2
2
2
/19 2
/ An n
368 2
561 0
463 1
/ A3 1
440 8
441 8
3
115 5
0
0
8
7
18,990
19 139
19 320
(1957-59-100)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
8
7
7
7
9
8
9
8
9
9
8
7
20 350
20 276
100
100
100
100
5
5
5
4
1Q 389
19 585
444 6
118
118
118
118
/ /7 0
1195
19 P;/,/,
447 9
450 4
452 6
118 9
119 7
119 7
19 837
20 112
456 6
120 1
120 0
120 8
120 7
i 99 n
123 0
20 387
/ / 7 /
55. Index of
wholesale prices
except farm
products and foods
19 311
19 A58
19 671
20 253
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
541.2
544 9
553 7
560.0
567 1
575 9
582 6
584.7
577 0
583 1
593 1
603 6
614 o
624 2
634 8
641.1
572 5
578 4
587 3
595 5
Ai n n
...
620 1
...
631 o
633 6
/ 5/ Q
456 7
/ 57 P
20 37/
90 90,0
1 OO 5
486
719
666
426
100
100
100
100
1 OO 9
2 559 o
/ A9
-5
IP/ /
20
20
20
20
2 A05 5
2 527 4
2 610 2
/ 73
9
1 95 1
90
71 A
/ 7/
7
1 95 7
90
558
100 9
/ 78 Q
1 97 1
91
Ol Q
1 Ol 1
2 571 5
p cnn -3
464 8
467 1
1 9 3 ?
1 93 /
8
9
9
8
i
1 p£, c
21 000
m
/ £"3 <9
4oJ>.
-| OO
p-i c;qq
^1, 99 D
-i n-i
p
/ rt y
-i r\-\
Q
101 2
1 81
9
Q
O
CQ7 0
<- j 97 / . J
404. 9
c
~1 O& $ "3
12o.
2
2
2
2
2
487 7
1 99 5
/Q1 9
/no o
1 3D 3
OT ,OO
"3 J
21
22
91 392
91 777
1 7O Q
91 77°>
1 Ol O
/9A 1
1 31 5
91 935
1 Ol
9
/QQ 5
1 39 A
99
9AA
1 Ol
9
1 33 P
99 9 5 /
1 Ol
?
101 5
101 6
101 7
101 7
693
688
607
746
681
8
4
4
7
7
2 755 9
2 771 5
50"!
502 8
132 6
2 730 3
2 803 5
506 6
1351
512 0
1 37 3
21 383
21 66l
22 781
515
515
51 8
520
8
7
/
7
137 8
2p 900
1 3Q 0
1/0 /
1 3Q 7
pq
525
3
7
1 01 1
1965
January
February . . .
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
597.5
601.4
[H]r609 7
656.4
665 9
Or 677 5
647 6
659 2
rzrirA7i 3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
[Hjp3
803 3
845 1
923 ft
962 0
871 5
019 4
021 0
018 8
022 6
068 9
598 8
con 5
539 0
jT7l-r5/5
•n5/
7
n o
140 6
1/1 ^
1/9 ^
1/0 q
-L4J>. J
-pl / 3
JTTI -p."] / /
C
!_Hjpl44. n/
q-i 7
101 9
99 8O^
102 1
102 2
102 3
99 8A^
93 359
pq qq-i
<Oj JJ1
p q 17 / q
<o, /4J
-poq n / /
r,o, p44
-ppq 77 /
r^j,
( (4
i[H]PO,V9V
—iT\9"3. Q^Q
1 09
A
1 O9 A
102 8
[B3102 9
nl 09 8
1 103 0
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*), Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and UNA", not available.
1
Week ended November 16.
29
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and month
61. Business expenditures on new
plant and equipment, total
62. Index of labor
cost per unit of
output, manufacturing
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)*
(1957-59=100)
68. Index of labor
64. Book value of
manufacturers'
cost per dollar of
real corporate GNP inventories
(1957-59=100)
(Bil. dol.)
65. Book value of
manufacturers'
inventories of finished goods
66. Consumer installment debt
(Mil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
67. Bank rates on
short-term business
loans, 19 cities*
(Percent)
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
3 r ).70
36.9$
JU|y
August
September
October
November
December
38.35
37 95
99 7
99 7
99 S
100 7
100 8
101 1
100 7
100.9
100 4,
100 6
100 3
100 7
103 0
55 4
55 7
56 o
103 7
103.3
103 3
19 o
19 1
1Q 1
56.1
56 4
56 3
56 9
57 0
57 3
57 4
57 6
57 8
19
19
19
19
19
57 9
58 0
58 1
S3 3
58 5
58.7
58 9
58 9
59 1
59 3
59 8
60 1
19
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
21
21
9
0
0
0
1
3
3
4
6
6
0
2
21
PI
Pi
21
21
2
/,
/
6
6
2
3
4
5
5
/ p QAo
43 220
/ 3 S3P
44 017
//
...
1
Qd;
/ 37
44 826
S
/ S POO
01
...
45 588
19 7
/ S #38
19 7
1Q 3
46 206
/ A A&9
19 8
/ 7 i 7;
/ QQ
fwlS OP
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December ....'....
36 95
38.05
4.0.00
4.1.20
4-2.55
4-3.50
45.65
47.75
100 6
100 2
99 7
99 5
99.3
98.7
99.3
100.1
99.7
99.8
100.0
100.0
99 3
99.1
99 7
99 3
99 3
100 0
99 7
99 5
100 3
0101 2
99 5
98 9
104. o
104. 2
103.9
104.7
104 2
104 6
105 1
106 3
Q# Q
4-9 . 00
QQ ^
QQ
"]
77.1
QQ
R
77 • 0
(H]50 35
QQ &
77 • 0
QQ A
1 ns o
...
I nA o
...
98 8
a51 15
QQ #
r>i nn &
r-ii nn A
im TI~\ nA A
60
60
60
60
60
'60
60
60
6l
61
62
AP
0
1
3
5
5
4
5
8
0
8
4
Q
A3 P
63 4
PI S
21
PI
21
PI
6
A
6
$
PI Q
PP P
77 AS9
/ £ A31
/ q n c;o
50
50
51
Si
SI
079
588
069
/l 0
9/1
SP 7$/
S3 791
S/ ?1 S
ss ppn
ss S9n
SA D7?
c.n f\oi
^7/,4J-L
y "31
P
S7 7"3P
co OQ9
An o / n
An Q & /
An
AC;/
Dl, CO4
PP ?
AP 9^A
AP QPP
As £
PP S
PP S
ful TiAA P
TTTi-nPP A
\.I\IA;
/ QQ
* * *
1
QQ
. . .
^A ^n#
PP ^
PP 4
/
£<..
f MA ^
5 00
S/ 7P7
cc> Q£,O
/MAN
s ni
S? PI P
en An^
A/ ^
6y 6
6^ /
5 01
SP 3P/
PP /
64 o
5 00
...
/9 S93
PP /
PP S
A? 7
...
/ & 1 S/
A 7 ^"31
oJ,
PJl
rmAy
on /
QHJD4, <:14
/ 70
Q&
4.
.. .
c nn
...
/ Qry
4. 7 /
/ QQ
4.99
5 nn
/•M- A N
iJNAj
a52 95
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Current high
values are indicated by 0; for series that move counter'to movements in general business activity (series 3, 4,5, 14,15, 40, 43, and 45), current low values are indicated
by 0. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p"f preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
30
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series
Year and month
1962
82. Federal cash
payments to the
public
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
March
April
May
, y
June
Jujy
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
. '
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
83. Federal cash
receipts from the
public
95. Surplus (+) or
deficit (-), Federal
income and product
account
84. Federal cash
surplus (+) or
deficit (-)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
109.9
113 5
107 8
108 3
108 6
111 5
113 5
108 1
113 4
113 7
118 6
11 / Q
102.2
101.8
101.1
105.2
108.6
104.5
110.4
107.7
108.4
107.1
110.1
108 4
112. 4
109.6
116.6
113 5
116.3
115 3
120.5
121 9
119.9
122.0
119.3
117.2
108.6
109.9
110.5
108 0
114.0
112 7
112.9
116 5
112.6
114. 7
114.9
118 1
7 3
4 4
+0 9
125 9
119 2
120 4
122.6
119.1
116.7
122 8
121.6
117.9
118 4
112.9
126.5
115 9
120 5
10 0
+1 3
121 8
121 8
117 4
125.2
128.8
133.0
120.2
129.5
137.7
p!23 9
-7.7
-11 7
-6.7
3 1
0.0
-7.0
-3 1
-0.4
5 0
-6 6
-8.5
6 5
3
+0
6
5
-2
2
7
8
3
1
5
3
6
6
5 L
91. Defense
90. Defense
Department obliga- Department obligations, procurement tions, total
-5.0
-4.6
-2.6
-3.2
-2 5
+1 8
+0 6
7 3
+1 2
2 6
4,4-34
4,086
4,421
4 477
3 999
4 082
4 517
4 385
3 892
4 535
4,920
4 140
3,073
2,135
2,225
2 062
1 887
1,930
2 017
2,149
2 111
2,983
2,734
1,984
1 586
1 206
1 366
1 215
1 358
1 363
1 132
1 700
1 207
2 010
1 094
1 973
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
632
137
233
078
507
481
349
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
/
^80
1 07^
1 &/ 1
117 1
q
1
121.4
108.7
113.8
114 0
111.7
113.0
115.1
114.9
114.5
-1
-10
-2
8
-9
-4
-3
+2
-12
2
4
9
8
9
9
3
0
0
1
1
1
1
114 o
7 8
-1 7
+7 1
+28 3
8 Q
l3 6
IP/
cr
153^
11Q Q
11 Q /
122 1
1 91 Q
121 4
r>l 1 3 9
4-1
7*6
3 6
-1 1
+9
^
lA 3
I-, i n 7
97 7
/
9 733
4 160
5 112
4 093
2 578
2 086
1 681
/ 371
9 07Q
/ 3^1
c qi 7
9 1 /Q
9 A£Q
-i r.oc>
/
-i o o
4,-L^j)
389
Ql 0
079
/Q/
803
1 1/1
889
/, * 5 / /
/ #1 £
1 08Q
1 870
/ 998
£ qp£
966
An?
c
i 7'3
-i,
OP;
/ 97$
Q d-qn
/ 3/Q
/ A77
/ 937
/
/0*>
3 773
/
/IQ /
4, o<;4
/
1 , Pyo
2 508
9
1
p
1
9
1
2
1
/ £>/
$7Q
on/
Q9A
1Q1
7Z5
008
£#3
i #"3n
"1
A9&
/
1, C>i~7
o /4
9 Q9A
9 0,9^
9 490
/ q&
<:,
^7
4, P7J
l ^Ar?
1
l /n
1,14U
/ A°>n
4,oJU
/ P2U
c on
4,
V94
/ Oo
9^,3
4,
9 AQQ
1
1
&Q°,
1, oVJ
OOQ
5 ,22J
2 7 *7n
1
AT Q
-L, 0-1-7
f 1\JA "\
c
p 40^
/ A^
^,
or /
n
198
435
154
966
240
334
419
£
Q
7 A
r
1
-4-9
(Mil. dol.)
1,758
1,228
1,410
1 791
1 039
1 311
1 657
1 395
1 040
1 675
1,787
1 205
Q
120 1
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
92. Military prime
contract awards to
U.S. business firms
^IMAj
C.QO
Q^A
/TxTA \
iJMA;
? ]\T (\ N
UNA;
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
31
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
99. New orders,
defense products
93. Free reserves*
(Bil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Year and month
85. Change in
total U.S. money
supply
(Ann. rate,
percent)
98. Change in
money supply and
time deposits
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1.99
2.05
2.11
2.24
+555
+434
+382
2.24.
+440
2.08
2.07
+391
1.94
1.88
2.09
1.70
+441
+440
+439
+375
+419
2 53
+473
+268
2.89
+375
2 09
2 42
1 97
+301
0 00
+2.52
+1 68
+4.08
-3 24
+0.84
-0 84
-0 84
-1 68
+4 92
+4 08
+4 92
+7
+11
+Q
+8
+1
+6
+5
+4
+4
+9
+8
+10
32
52
36
76
56
12
04
08
56
48
40
80
+4
+4
+1
+4
+3
+3
+6
+2
+2
+5
+7
-0
08
92
56
08
24
96
36
40
40
52
08
84
+8
+8
+7
+7
+6
+7
+9
+8
+6
+8
+1 1
+/
76
76
20
68
24
08
00
88
48
76
n/
5A
+3 96
+1.56
+2 40
+3 12
0 00
+7 80
+8 52
+3 84
+8 40
+4 56
+2 28
+4 56
+8
+5
+4
+5
+4
+9
+8
+9
+9
+8
+8
+8
16
88
44
76
92
72
76
12
48
52
04
88
93
28
c;A
00
, -i n
//
111. Corporate
gross savings
112. Change in
business loans
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised 1
Revised 1
110. Total private
borrowing
40 120
41 , 276
47 664
41 008
/ 5 3/ 0
a
/ 3 756
/ 3 936
739
+2 90
4-1 c;i
4-9
93
+2
+2
+2
+2
4-3
+2
09
09
77
66
85
82
4-2
82
+2 28
4-0 Q5
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
2.40
1.90
2.40
i
+269
+313
+247
2 36
+138
+161
+133
2.47
1.92
1.97
1.48
+91
+94
+33
+209
2.67
2.40
2.18
2.37
2.48
+175
2.34
3.29
1.86
1.98
2.41
1.79
1.87
+120
+135
2
2
2
3
2
2
2
r2
r3
p2
37
44
46
24
46
58
62
81
31
88
+89
+99
+167
+82
+83
+89
+106
-34
+168
+103
+ 32
76
119
1 Ort
1 8/
1 75
1 3A.
-r
-I C C
•n
1 /Q
4-9
2
4-/
+6
£ 1A
-i-i 3 / /
i C
"I A
-i-i ./ /44
+1
4-7 Q9
4-A QA
/ Q in/
51 508
43 820
51 040
/ 5 520
53,892
45 224
47 212
48 656
64 640
49 308
59 A A/
...
50 1 QA,
58 / A n
/ Q /I 9
A "3 &A/
cc ,040
£. / cJ
pp
...
4-1 1
7A
_L"| O O /
+12. 24
TV-t-Q
/ &
p+12.96
/ 3
/ 9
.. .
(*r~i rt-i o
O / , 012
T^A ^ "i "3O
poj5,lJ2
4-2
+1
4-1
+2
4-2
+4
+5
4-5
35
74
Q7
04
08
66
22
78
+1
+3
4-1
4-3
+4
+3
+4
+4
+4
4-1
+0
+8
79
48
42
17
25
89
31
78
28
43
32
62
+12.35
, 1 o -i ;
+1J.14
/ A
+12.40
4-1 O
.. .
55,520
_i_Q "70
+7.
/<:
_L~I n . On
4-1U
80
4-1
4-1
+1 85
4-9 y o
-i-Q nn
nn
O .00
4-1 o An
42 668
p 57, 216
. s
on
+0.32
+11.04
+11.38
+10. 00
+5.53
+4.00
P+5.33
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except thos? that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available,
•"•See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
32
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
Year and month
1962
113. Net change in
consumer installment debt
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
114. Treasury bill
rate*
2 75
2 75
2 72
2 74
2 69
2. '72
2 94
August
September
October
November.
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
+5 82
+ 5.94
+ 5.72
+6.25
+5.29
+ 5.83
+6.11
+ 5.77
+4.09
+6.37
+4 60
+ 5.52
July
4
4
4
3
3
3
4
08
09
01
89
88
90
02
55
54
42
31
26
30
41
39
28
2.84
3.98
2 79
3 94
2.75
2.80
2.86
3.89
4.27
2 91
3 89
3 92
3 93
2 90
3 87
4 23
3.87
4.28
2.91
3.97
2 92
3 97
3.00
4.00
3 14
3 38
4 01
3 99
4 04
3.45
4.07
3 52
3 52
4 11
4 14
3 53
3 ^53
3 ^
/
/
4
4
4
3.32
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
' 4
4
4
4
4
22
25
26
35
35
32
34
33
40
36
42
49
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
2.92
86. Exports excluding military aid
shipments, total
116. Corporate bond 117. Municipal bond 118. Mortgage
yields*
yields*
yields*
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
+2 23
+3.12
+3 74
+ 5 82
+5.04
+4 67
+4.49
+4.66
+3.00
+4.42
+5.80
+ 5.82
January
February
March
April
May
June
115. Treasury bond
yields*
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
34
21
14
06
11
26
28
23
11
02
04
07
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
69
68
65
64
60
59
58
57
56
55
54
53
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
10
15
05
10
11
21
22
13
20
20
30
27
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
^
5
s
52
48
47
46
Z5
45
45
45
ZS
45
/^
s zs
1 668 3
1 809 3
1 672 0
1 795 4
1 761 7
1 835 6
1 748 3
1,702 5
1 907 9
1,542 8
1 724 6
1,838 7
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
985 7
123 6
957 8
913 7
8QS ?
803 1
840 8
922 1
1 Qcjp; p
1 Q67 5
1 QA^i 6
2 090 8
1964
January
February
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
. ...
May
,'
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
+ 5 14
+6 95
+6 29
+4.94
+5.92
+4 44
+ 5.80
+5 22
+6.16
+4.92
+3.61
+6.72
+8.04
+7.69
+7.64
+8.93
+8.04
+7.22
+7.99
+7.31
+8.20
(NA)
3.48
3
3
3
3
3
48
48
48
51
53
3.58
3 62
3.86
3.83
3 93
3 94
3.93
3.90
3.81
3.83
3.84
3.91
4.03
15
i/
18
20
16
/ yq
/
/
38
/^
4 49
4 48
3 PP
3 1/
o
90
3 28
c /c
c
/r
r
/ £T
9 . 42
5
/,*)
3 ?o
E /r
2 06l 1
2 06l 8
p n^/ P
/ "13
/, /Q
3 PO
c
4 13
Z Z3
z /3
4 49
3
3
3
3
3
5 /A
5 /A
5 /A
P 1 PP Q
c / c.
c; / c
pic/
Z 1 Z
4
4
4
4
16
16
12
14
L ZQ
4 47
4 47
4 14
4 16
4 15
4 44
4 44
Z 1 ^
/ /£
4
4
4
4
4
4
14
14
15
19
25
28
Z
4
4
4
4
ZQ
52
57
57
66
Z 71
4 69
1£
1Q
P3
P^
1#
/c
p n/ P Q
p n/ A P
pii~7 / pi
2 ,u
/4. u
313
£
/ C
3 06
c
/r
3 OQ
3 13
o n c;
£
/ c
3 17
3 P/
3 P7
3 PZ
q or
-?• ,32
o /n
C
C
1C
1C.
C.
1C.
C
) )
I I
\)C .44
C
1C
J .42
r / (L
J .40
c ;Q
2 .47
p i n# &
p pqc: Q
a
P 1 QA #
P / ^D /
1 PI 7 ?
1 ^QP *7
2
0 rtpi o
2 j^oU.J
17^0
P7
2^>rT~i n
2 -1 rt / rt
2 ,OAo
2b2. o£J
20,J45.
/ c rr 7
2,297.7
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
TABLE
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 7965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
Other Selected U.S. Series—Continued
87. General imports, total
Year and month
(Mil. dol.)
88. Merchandise
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)
(Mil. dol.)
89. Excess of receipts (+) or payments (-) in U.S. balance of payments
a. Liquidity
balance basis
(Mil. dol.)
b. Official
settlements
basis1
(Mil. dol.)
81. Index of con- 94. Index of con- 96. Manufacsumer prices
struction conturers' unfilled
orders, durable
tracts, value
goods industries
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
(Bil. dol.)
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing 2
(Bil. dol.)
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1,326.5
1,319.8
1,341.7
1,365.0
1,4-04.1
1,350.7
1,346.6
1,345.9
1,471.4
1,312.1
1,424.9
1,376.5
+341 . 8
+489.5
+330.3
+430.4
+357.6
+484.9
+401.7
+356.6
+436.5
+230.7
+299.7
+462.2
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1,099.9
1,510.4
1,484.8
1,414.6
1,416.3
1,430.9
1,449.5
1,497.3
1,443.3
1,455.4
1,465.5
1,479.8
-114.2
+613.2
+473.0
+499.1
+478.9
+372.2
+391.3
+424.8
+514.9
+512.1
+500.1
+611.0
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1,434.4
1,460.3
1,519.5
1,540.6
1,539.4
1,518.4
1,578.1
1,574.9
1,546.4
1,547.7
1,697.7
1,642.2
+608.5
+585.9
+554.5
+520.5
+522.4
+515.8
+544.8
+533.9
+688.9
+607.1
+499.1
+788.2
1,206.4
1,600.5
1,869.0
1,834.7
1,798.9
1,834.8
1,669.8
1,725.4
1,786.8
(NA)
+10.9
-7.8
+883.7
+545.6
+478.8
+350.0
+593.0
+620.3
+510.9
(NA)
-792
-267
-433
-711
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
104.7
104.9
105.1
105.3
105.4
105.4
105.3
105.5
105.9
105.8
105.8
105.9
115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
113
117
123
138
45.80
46.42
45.75
45.41
44.95
44.58
44.33
43.73
43.37
43.58
43.18
44.09
106.1
106.1
, 106.2
106.3
106.4
106.7
106.9
107.1
106.9
107.0
107.2
107.7
121
130
118
125
144
135
126
132
128
146
144
148
45.06
45.74
46.68
47.53
47.86
47.28
46.74
46.70
47.07
47.17
47.08
46.68
107.8
107.7
107.8
108.0
108.1
108.1
108.1
108.2
108.3
108.4
108.6
108.9
147
143
140
138
138
138
140
121
131
136
143
154
47.07
47.64
47.80
48.84
49.22
50.04
51.30
51.37
52.14
53.14
53.41
53.96
109.0
109.0
109.1
109.5
109.9
110.2
110.0
110.0
110.1
(NA)
137
140
141
152
145
139
149
139
147
(NA)
54.28
55.09
55.53
56.37
56.88
57.45
57.83
r58.15
r59.l6
P59.95
8*. 44
8.32
i.26
8.81
1963
-1,199
-1,108
-210
-153
-257
-582
-593
-1,366
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-136
-351
+46
-783
8.88
9.38
10.05
11.02
12 '.08
13 '.23
14.54
14.97
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
-701
r+247
p-485
-634
+210
p+260
15! 66
p!7.06
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those-that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
•'•This balance represents a provisional estimate by the Department of Commerce on, the basis of official settlements.
2
Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products."
(See NICE publication Investment Statistics—Capital Ap•pro-priations: First Quarter 1965.)
34
bed
BASIC DATA
NOVEMBER 1965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES—Continued
International Comparisons
Year and month
47. United
123. Canada,
States, index of index of indusindustrial produc- trial production
tion
1962
January
February
March
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
121. OECD,1
European countries, index of
industrial
production
125. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
126. France,
index of industrial production
(1957-59=
100)
127. Italy, index 128. Japan, index
of industrial
of industrial
production
production
(1957-59=
100)
(1957-59=
100)
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
115
116
118
118
118
118
119
119
120
119
120
119
113
115
116
116
117
118
118
119
119
119
120
120
108
110
111
110
113
114
113
114
115
110
113
110
122
124
123
124
125
124
125
126
127
127
128
127
126
129
125
128
129
130
130
131
132
132
133
132
122
123
124
123
124
123
125
125
126
128
128
126
149
151
149
151
153
147
151
149
150
153
158
160
182
178
181
181
182
180
179
180
181
179
179
178
1963
January
February
March . . .
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
120
121
122
123
124,
126
126
125
126
126
126
127
120
121
122
122
110
111
113
114
115
115
116
118
117
120
121
121
127
126
127
130
1 11
1 3?
132
1 3P
1 3/
1 3S
1 36
129
128
1 QP
158
155
161
i 6s
i As
166
1 63
166
179
184
184
1 -20
127
1 PS
116
1 PQ
i QQ
1 3A
123
1 P3
i 90
124
123
123
122
123
123
127
128
129
1 3Q
1 3Q
April
1 23
123
121
123
125
126
128
1 33
1 Ql
1 QO
1 Ql
1 3Q
1 3/
1 3/
1 ?Q
136
1 PQ
1 3A
1 3$
1 yn
1 3Q
1 36
1 37
1 3A
-i qd
i /p
i/o
1 / /
1 3Q
i AQ
PP /
<:<:4
-I
1 QO
"i n Q
1 7J
168
224
PPA
166
PP#
i A/
OQQ
166
P3P
p^p
P03
POP
PO7
1 73
PI /
1 "7O
Ql 7
1964
January
February
Marrh
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
128
128
1 on131 *
132
132
133
134
134.
132
135
138
139
139
141
1/4-1
142
143
144
144
143
p!44
133
134
i 33
135
133
133
134
135
135
136
139
140
142
141
143
142
142
143
144
p!46
(NA1)
131
129
128
129
129
128
129
p!30
(NA)
~\ / r\
141
1 3Q
150
1/3
-Uv
1/1
140
1/1
138
137
140
r!43
143
143
147
1/ £
1 3P
1 3P
145
149
149
149
142
142
139
1 3Q
146
146
143
145
146
r!46
144
p!45
(NA)
/ C
149
1/0
156
155
rl /Q
1 S/,
r!55
141
138
140
1 3Q
1/1
140
1/ p
is/,
rl 51
1 5/
1 3£
1 3£
r>l SO
•nl
A
pi /4O
(NAl
(MA ^
172
1 SA
165
164
166
166
166
169
rl66
169
174
r!76
r!76
rfl75
(NA)
PI Q
P3Q
241
P37
P/ P
243
P37
P/ ?
240
234
P/ 3
P/l
•rP3$
nP/1
(T\TA ^
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by an asterisk (*). Series numbers
are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available,
-'•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Section TWO
charts and tables
DISTRIBUTION OF 'H/GHS' FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF COMPONENTS
Average workweek—27 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—77 industries
Profits—700 companies
Stock prices—80 industries
Industrial materials prices—73 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—23 industries
Retail sales—24 fypes of sfores
Nef sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Carloadings—79 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—22 industries
DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
37
™j«
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
N0«««. >N.
••
DISTRIBUTION OF "HIGHS" FOR CURRENT AND COMPARATIVE PERIODS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark datesNumber of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
Business cycle peak
Current expansion
July
1965
Sept.
1965
Aug.
1965
Nov.
1948
Oct.
1965
July
1957
July
1953
May
1960
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more c
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
8
2
1
3
2
2
2
4
7
1
2
1
3
2
2
2
4
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
24
17
24
0
10
i
2
2
1
1
4
15
7
2
1
1
"4
3
"i
9
1
5
1
2
24
16
2
1
2
3
24
0
24
0
*2
"3
2
24
12
16
12
"i
X
20
0
2
21
5
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
.
Benchmark month
"i
i
1
1
9
11
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
Number of months before benchmark date
that high was reached
1
2
2
1
...
82
1
3
7
1
1
9
1
1
2
7
11
64
11
82
11
64
Apr.
1953
Apr.
1957
11
0
3
2
3
"3
3
"i
2
3
11
27
11
4
11
27
36
6th month before business cycle peak
3d month before business cycle peak
Aug.
1948
3
4
"i
"3
1
Jan.
1953
May
1948
Feb.
1960
Nov.
1959
Jan.
1957
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
4
13
2
4
2
21
5
24
0
"i
20
5
"i
*2
2
5
1
2
1
'*4
X
21
2
9
i
13
2
"i
i
i
l
i
4
1
2
3
7
5
2
2
1
2
3
3
24
0
X
20
15
2
21
33
18
1
2
1
2
24
0
6
7
3
2
2
1
2
1
24
4
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
7 months
6 months
5 months
4 months
3 months
2 months
1 month
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date
2
1
2
1
1
1
2
i
1
1
1
"i
2
6
"5
4
3
3
2
11
55
11
36
11
18
"i
4
5
3
5
11
45
11
45
"i
1
3
6
11
55
"4
4
2
1-
4
"l
3
11
36
11
27
NOTE: All quarterly series and 2 monthly series (series 15, a leading indicator, and series 40, a roughly coincident indicator) are omitted from tto& distribution.
1
4
2
series were not available.
1 series was not available and 2 series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the
were disregarded in this distribution.
38
Korean War and such peaks
bed
NOVEMBER 7965
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES
CHART
FROM 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
Percent
9-mo. span
1-mo. span
Dl. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.-21 ijndus.
100
50
0
D6. New orders, dur. goods indus.-36 indus.
100
^sn^v^ /Y.-Y x
V Y V \ I v/Vy
50
0
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations17 rndus., NO
(«r^»3-Q span, —• — 1-Q span)
n 100
50
0
D34. Profits; FNCB of NY, percent reporting
higheri^rofits-700 cos. (1-Q spflu$...J._
75
50
J 25
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks-80 ipdus.
100
50
0
D23. Industrial materials prices-13 indus. mtls.
100
D5. Initial claims, State unempi. insur
39
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 7965
bed
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT-Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(May) (Fell.)
P T
jysy; (Apr.)
F
!
D41.
Percent
Emplpyees in nonagr. establishmentsjSO indOs.
(6-m|o. span!—
1-jmo, span ---)
|
|
100
50
r o
D47. Industrial production^24 indys.
(6-njo. span! —
1-jmo. spo:n —)
100
50
H 0
D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods-23 indus.
D54. Sales of retail stores -24
(9-mo. span —
types of stores !
Nmo. span
in ,M II H H i ) ! | i hi hi M J i i l i j i n i i i l i i i i i i i i i ; ) : I M « H!H i i i i ' h t l i i h i h i l i i i i i i i i l i j h i i M l H i i i i i i i - n h i i i i n h i II II I! M i l l ii M i l l i i l i l i i i h i l i i h i ! > i i i i l i M i l l i i l i i U l i i ' i M M i h
1950
40
1951 1952
l 5 5 I 1956 1957 1958 ; 1959* 1960 ?1961
fflB^^
See "How to Read Charts 1 and 2." page 6
bed
CHART
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 7965
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 TO PRESENT—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Percent
50
0
D36. New orders, dur.
(4fO span!)
~~
100
50
0
100
50
^ 0
D48. Change in total cqrloadings
+0.5
D61.
1
-t-
0
—H
' i
-0.5
s
ji
New plant! and equipment expend.-17-22 indus.
(1-JQ span)
100
50
0
Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35, D36 (July 1965)
D48 (Sept. 1965)
D61 ( Aug. 1965)
Actual
2nd Q 1964 - 2nd Q 1965
4th Q 1963 - 4th Q 1964
1st Q 1965 - 2nd Q 1965
Anticipated
4th Q 1964 - 4th Q 1965
4th Q 1964 - 4th Q 1965
3rd Q 1965 - 4th Q 1965
;
!
I
See "How to Read Charts 1 and 2," pai* r>
41
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 7965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
NBER Leading Indicators
Dl. Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries)
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)1
Year and month
1-month span
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
21.461.9
85.7
76.2
28.6
31.0
38.1
5.4.8
78.6
9.5
64.3
35.7
9-month span
85.7
83.3
50.0
23.8
52.4
54.8
42.9
28.6
26.2
23.8
40.5
19.0
1-month span
63.9
52.8
36.1
51.4
56.9
37.5
56.9
36.1
48.6
68.1
50.0
47.2
9-month span
77.8
63.9
63.9
47.2
47.2
45.8
36.1
52.8
59.7
56.9
70.8
3-quarter span
1-quarter span
65
47
*29
"?6
'%
"53
*59
74
47
53
59
*53
*53
"65
"65
*76
53
76
*56
71
*53
44
32
*59
76
P71
69.4
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
61.9
14-. 3
85.7
54.8
47.6
57.1
59.5
71.4
21.4
83.3
1964
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
88.1
40.5
66.7
42.9
26.2
54.8
71.4
14.3
76.2
64.3
92.9
52.4
73.8
33.3
85.7
73.8
88.1
78.6
78.6
95.2
59.5
44.4
58.3
61.1
44.4
50.0
63.9
40.3
54.2
58.3
55.6
68.1
52.4
59.5
76.2
19.0
76.2
81.0
59.5
59.5
48.6
38.9
63.9
50.0
83.3
23.8
47.6
r33.3
P42.9
44.4
58.3
59.7
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
76.2
50.0
4.8
r59.5
r33.3
p64.3
61.9
45.2
83.3
69.0
78.6
76.2
61.9
64.3
52.4
64.3
66.7
73.8
85.7
50.0
63.9
43.1
54.2
63.9
52.8
47.2
51.4
52.8
52.8
69.4
33.3
62.5
55.6
88.9
69.4
66.7
63.9
52.8
66.7
62.5
72.2
69.4
58.3
83.3
77.8
76.4
83.3
80.6
75.0
72.2
58.3
63.9
83.3
72.2
63.9
61.1
68.1
77.8
75.0
77.8
r68.1
P71
(NA)
63.9
p66.7
(NA)
r41.7
r50.0
P56.9
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series componenis rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Data prior to 1961 not comparable because of "a change in asset accounting basis in machinery, except electrical, and a
recalculation of the seasonal pattern for petroleum and coal products.11
(See NICB publication Investment Statistics - Capital
Appropriations; First Quarter 1965.)
42
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 7965
TABLE
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Leading Indicators—Continued
Year and month
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
(around 700 corporations)
1-quarter span
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February .
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
54
*47
*48
*56
50
...
April
May
June
Julv
August
September
October
November
December
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
*59
*56
55
57
*60
57
'56
55
*59
*55
D19. Index of stock prices, 500I common
stocks (80 industries)
1-month span
9-month span
D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month span
9-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs,
week ended nearest the 22d (47 areas)
1-month span
9-month span
25.6
75.0
47.5
8.7
1.2
1.2
69.4
78.1
36.2
8.1
98.7
84.4
17.5
6.2
7.5
3.1
3.7
2.5
1.2
3.7
18.7
67.5
93.7
95..0
53.8
46.2
46.2
42.3
42.3
46.2
23.1
30.8
50.0
53.8
53.8
53.8
38.5
30.8
30.8
38.5
23.1
15.4
30.8
38.5
38.5
53.8
46.2
61.5
46.8
76.6
38.3
48.9
46.8
19.1
63.8
61.7
42.6
36.2
72.3
36.2
80.9
55.3
48.9
36.2
46.8
44.7
38.3
27.7
27.7
53.2
74.5
53.2
97.5
78.7
43.7
91.2
85.0
51.9
29.4
75.0
76.9
44.9
44.9
68.4
95.0
95.0
98.7
95.0
89.1
84.6
78.2
79.5
77.6
69.2
71.2
84.4
61.5
46.2
50.0
46.2
46.2
69.2
46.2
38.5
69.2
69.2
50.0
57.7
61.5
69.2
61.5
69.2
65.4
61.5
61.5
61.5
61.5
53.8
61.5
76.9
34.0
89.4
31.9
47.9
46.8
68.1
44.7
44.7
44.7
59.6
40.4
23.4
44.7
66.0
72.3
48.9
63.8
80.9
46.8
31.9
85.1
60.6
53.2
73.4
74.7
65.2
78.5
75.6
52.6
35.3
89.7
41.0
76.3
73.1
59.6
24.0
83.1
78.2
86.5
85.9
84.6
84.6
81.8
68.8
65.6
75.3
76.6
76.6
53.8
53.8
46.2
65.4
30.8
53.8
46.2
76.9
69.2
73.1
61.5
38.5
61.5
69.2
69.2
76.9
76.9
80.8
84.6
76.9
69.2
69.2
76.9
69.2
89.4
27.7
57.4
77.7
48.9
48.9
63.8
51.1
53.2
34.0
31.9
83.0
73.4
72.3
70.2
74.5
89.4
60.6
61.7
89.4
61.7
70.2
74.5
72.3
92.2
81.8
64.3
70.8
66.9
0.0
24.7
79.9
81.2
66.9
80.5
58.4
51.9
58.4
72.7
67.5
53.8
30.8
69.2
76.9
53.8
57.7
46.2
42.3
50.0
15.4
2
38.5
69.2
76.9
61.5
69.2
53.8
53.8
2
46.2
24.5
57.4
66.0
61.7
59.6
51.1
34.0
38.3
78.7
57.4
78.7
78.7
59.6
66.0
61.7
78.7
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes D19 which requires no
adjustment and D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 5 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and
"NA", not available.
•"•The diffusion index is based on 82 components through February 1963;
on 80 components, March 1963 to August 1963;
components, September 1963 to March 1964; on 78 components, April 1964 to November 1964; and on 77 components thereafter.
2
Average for November 15, 16, and 17.
on 79
43
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER
7965
bed
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and month
D41. Number of employees in
nonagricultural establishments
(30 industries)
1-month span
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
JU|y
August
September
October
November
December
65.0
75.0
75.0
86.7
60.0
6-month span
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
1-month span
53.3
61.7
51.7
51.7
50.0
48.3
43.3
86.7
88.3
81.7
78.3
73.3
71.7
51.7
45.0
41.7
35.0
43.3
50.0
25.0
87.5
87.5
75.0
64.6
66.7
52.1
58.3
83.3
29.2
68.8
65.0
46.7
71.7
76.7
75.0
63.3
78.3
53.3
56.7
66.7
53.3
80.0
6-month span
D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)
1-month span
58.3
50.0
70.8
68.8
35.4
83.3
79.2
70.8
91.7
77.1
83.3
66.7
77.1
60.4
47.9
72.9
62.5
60.0
65.0
65.0
68.3
68.3
71.7
73.3
60.0
66.7
60.0
73.3
73.3
79.2
66.7
83.3
54.2
83.3
75.0
72.9
68.8
58.3
64.6
50.0
77.1
83.3
91.7
95.8
91.7
91.7
83.3
91.7
77.1
79.2
77.1
83.3
85.4
50.0
54.2
52.1
41.7
52.1
75.0
66.7
64.6
25.0
53.3
83.3
66.7
63.3
65.0
73.3
66.7
51.7
73.3
46.7
88.3
78.3
75.0
75.0
80.0
62.5
75.0
75.0
87.5
66.7
62.5
83.3
64.6
45.8
68.8
79.2
81.2
91.7
95.8
87.5
91.7
87.5
89.6
70.8
70.8
87.5
79.2
91.7
91.7
43.8
70.8
52.1
52.1
66.7
81.7
86.7
58.3
58.3
85.0
86.7
83.3
71.7
76.7
90.0
80.0
.66.7
83.3
85.4
58.3
18.8
83.3
75.0
64.6
39.6
87.5
66.7
9-month span
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(23 manufacturing industries)
1-month span
6-month span
87.5
91.7
91.7
89.6
89.6
67.4
52.2
58.7
60.9
47.8
72.9
95.8
95.8
41.3
41.3
28.3
43.5
32.6
56.5
30.4
60.9
63.0
58.7
54.3
58.7
43.5
32.6
41.3
37.0
87.5
87.5
91.7
83.3
30.4
26.1
26.1
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
83.3
73.3
75.0
75.0
91.7
86.7
80.0
90.0
90.0
58.3
54.2
77.1
70.8
79.2
85.4
77.1
60.4
52.1
62.5
87.5
70.8
91.7
83.3
77.1
79.2
100.0
66.7
45.8
52.1
37.5
64.6
62.5
62.5
85.4
83.3
83.3
83.3
75.0
68.8
83.3
81.2
60.4
62.5
50.0
72.9
20.8
87.5
91.7
-66.7
41.3
41.3
41.3
47.8
58.7
73.9
50.0
58.7
52.2
69.6
63.0
r71.7
63.0
r69.6
52.2
71.7
34.8
34.8
69.6
65.2
60.9
r56.5
r56.5
60.9
32.6
47.8
58.7
60.9
63.0
69.6
71.7
78.3
71.7
69.6
67.4
82.6
69.6
69.6
69.6
r56.5
56.5
56.5
60.9
58.7
60.9
69.6
78.3
82.6
1965
January
February
March
April
May.
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
r46.7
r6l.7
P71.7
r80.0
P78.3
66.7
79.2
58.3
70.8
81.2
81.2
r70.8
r45.8
P79.2
83.3
83.3
r83.3
r70.8
P83.3
62.5
83.3
39.6
81.2
r41.7
r72.9
P47.9
75.0
r68.8
79.2
P83.3
63.0
60.9
67.4
67.4
60.9
60.9
r60.9
76.1
80.4
82.6
76.1
67.4
r69.6
^61.4
54.3
54.3
'p52.3
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on
the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Tables identifies the components for the indexes
shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Based on 22 components.
44
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 7965
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
D35. Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies)
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies)
D48. Freight carloadings (19 manufactured
commodity groups)
D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (16 industries)
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
1-quarter span
Year and month
Actual
1962
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1963
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1964
January
February
Anticipated
1965
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
80
88
"76
*84
57.9
94.7
-68
"?6
*80
74
74
63.*2
89.' 5
-96
72
74
71
70
42.1
6s!Z
-67
74
82
'76
*76
63^2
63^2
+29
'•76
"SO
77
*76
73.7
78.9
+39
74
"so
'76
*76
57.*9
68^4
+44
82
*84
*82
80
78.9
78.9
+21
*84
"S5
*82
*84
68.4
73.7
-39
83
87
*84
*84
84.2
68.*4
+11
*82
"S6
81
*84
73.7
94.7
r+59
*83
87
*84
*84
(NA)
89.' 5
+ 51
*84
*88
*84
"85
89^5
+49
*84
84.2
+23
*84
84.2
Marrh
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Actual
Change in
total (000)
(NA)
*88
88
(NA)
Actual
Anticipated
65.6
62.5
68.8
6B.B
65.*6
65.*6
46.9
68.*8
40.6
50.0
65^6
75.0
75.0
71.9
71.9
75.0
71.9
50.0
62." 5
50.0
84.' 4
75.0
96.9
68.8
56.2
65.6
75.0
6s!s
(NA)
65*.6
78.1
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61; other indexes, based on 4-quarter spans (same quarter a year ago),
require no seasonal adjustment. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
45
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 7965
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Data
1964
1965
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
June
July
Aug.r
Sept.
Oct.P
Average weekly hours
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(21 industry components)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries .
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and al lied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
4-0.5
4-0.5
4-0.9
41.2
41.4
41.0
40.9
40.9
r40.8
41.0
40.0
39.4
40.5
41.1
42.8
41.3
42.0
40.3
42.3
40.9
39.1
40.6
39.7
41.2
41.5
41.9
41.442.0
40.7
40.5
40.9
39.7
40.4
39.9
41.5
41.5
42.2
42.0
40.6
40.2
41.8
42.2
42.2
42.3
41.8
39.7
41.4
41.5
42.1
41.9
42.6
40.3
41.1
41.6
42.2
41.7
41.7
40.7
41.3
41.5
42.2
41.8
r41.7
r40.3
r40.9
r£L.5
r41.9
r41.4
42.5
40.2
41.3
41.5
41.4
42.0
42.8
40.9
41.5
41.1
39.7
43.1
41.1
42.9
41.3
40.0
41.0
40.3
41.6
41.7
42.4
42.3
43.0
41.1
43.5
41.3
39.9
42.9
40.9
43.0
41.5
39.6
42.9
40.6
42.1
41.4
39.8
42.8
40.7
42.3
41.3
40.1
r42.8
r40.5
r41.9
r41.5
r39.9
43.2
40.7
43.0
41.5
40.3
40.7
37.0
40.0
34.9
42.7
41.0
39.3
41.4
36.2
42.9
38.6
41.6
41.6
41.6
38.5
41.0
38.5
41.5
36.4
42.4
41.3
39.6
41.8
36.5
42.9
38.6
41.6
42.0
41.6
38.2
41.3
38.4
42.2
36.8
43.1
38.5
41.8
41.3
42.3
37.5
40.9
37.2
41.4
36.4
42.9
38.5
41.7
41.9
41.7
37.7
41.2
38.3
41.3
36.2
42.9
38.4
41.5
42.1
41.6
37.9
41.0
37.5
41.9
36.1
43.0
r40.7
r37.0
38.5
41.7
42.7
42.0
37.7
r38.6
r42.2
r42.7
40.8
36.7
41.8
36.4
43.1
38.5
41.9
42.1
42.4
38.9
38.5
42.1
42.5
41.3
37.7
38.4
41.7
41.7
41.3
38.1
41.8
r36.2
42.8
41.5
38.3
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(36 industry components)
All durable goods industries . .
19,623
3,767
2,203
19,454
20,720
21,271
21,310
22,195
21,509
r21,897
21,807
3,663
2,072
3,821
2,243
3,739
2,232
3,454
1,816
3,493
1,851
3,119
1,465
r2,889
pi, 252
3,054
(NA)
1,991
2,011
2,089
2,068
2,042
2,058
1,974
pi, 994
(NA)
Machinery, except electrical
2,923
2,994
Steam engines and turbines*
|
219
175
Internal combustion engines *
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*. .
520
566
Metalworking machinery *
221
183
Miscellaneous equipment *
2,971
3,098
3,189
226
3,318
P 3,285
(NA)
175
3,092
209
3,140
175
149
283
p241
(NA)
592
201
526
239
525
234
560
204
603
242
5%
309
p6l7
p222
(NA)
(NA)
233
237
237
230
248
250
p245
(NA)
Primary metals
Blast furnaces, steel mills
Nonferrous metals . .
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
19,907
3,847
2,296
Fabricated metal products
2,045
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products . .
Other fabricated metal products
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *. . .
211
202
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency,
p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
46 Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
NA Not available.
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
'**
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS— Continued
Directions of Change
1-month spans
9-month span s
1965
19 55
Diffusion index title and components
c
TO
-p
.0
CD
Lu
j=
^
i—
Q <£
^H
CJ
c
< D r
Q
—i
>^
S
-^
*—
•—
C D T O Q
Li_
r=E
<C
o
c:
~7»
QO
<;
___
—>
=3
T O
3
^T
a.
e/3
CD
-t—•
o
O
| £
7
>, 1
d.
TO
3
^
C
. T O 3
SE
—i
'
**0
Q.
i 3
=
CD
—» < C c o
<:
s
—i
24
60
79
79
95
Z3
i £ I
^ =
<*) Q.
~$
•^
DO
=3
Q.
CD
co
<->
•*->
0
o
£=
o
-z.
S ^
81
60
60
33
43
4-
4-
O
4-
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
_
—i
<c
60
76
CD
OO
O
O
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION
WORKERS, MANUFACTURING
(21 industry components)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
52
60
4
-
76
O
4
19
-
S3
-
4
-
4
48
-
F
-
33
64
O 4 -
-
4-
,
-
+
—
OO
4
,
-
O
0-
4
-
4
+
--
—
4-
—
-
—
4
-
O
+
+
-
+
--
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
O
4
-
4
+
4-
4
O
-
—
-
-
+
OO
O
—
+
-
—
+
+
O
+
-
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
—
4-
—
—
—
4-
O
4
-
O
—
O
4~
O
4-
4
-
0 4 -
4-
-
4-
+
-
+
4-
-
4
-
4
-
•+
+
+
+
4
f
0
+
4-
-
+
+
+
4-
-
+
+
4-
+
4-
4-
4
+
-
4-
_
_
_
f-
0
_
4-
444-
+
4+
-f
+
O
4-
0
+
+
4-
+
0
+
+
4-
+
+
+
4+
+
,
4-
_
_
+
+
+
-j-
4-
O
O
4-
4"
O
4-
O
O
4~
O
O
4-
+
+
+
+
+
—
4-
—
—
+
_^_
+
-|-
O
+
o
_
4-
—
O
o
+
+
+
+
+
O
+
-
+
+
4-
4 ~ 4 -
4 - 4 -
o
+
O
+
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
4-
Q
o
o
+
—
O
+
+
+
o
72
64
61
68
78
7^
78
68
64
67
— ' +
_
_
+
_
+
+
+
+
4-
4-
4+
4f-
+
+
—
_
4.
+
4-
-
4-
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW
ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(36 industry components)
49
39
64
50
44
58
60
42
- 4 -
+
+
+
--
+
-
+
50
57
+
-
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
All diir/ihlp 0nodQ indii^trip^
Primary metals:
Blast furnaces steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals
««•
4
-
4
-
4
-
4-
Fabricated metal products:
—
+
Machinery, except electrical:
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines *
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction mining and material handling *
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment #
Machine shops
Special industry machinery *
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery *
4_ _
-
4
4
-
-
4
4
-
+
-O
-
+
4-
-
+
+
-
-
-
+
+
-
+
+
_
_
+
+
_
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
-
4-
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
4-
--
+
-
-
+
+
-
+
--
+
—
'+
+
—
+
—
--
+
+
--
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
_ _
4-
0
-
-
+
+
4-
+
+
+
4-
-
+
-
+
-
+
+
h
+
-
4-
+
+
+
+
4-
—
—
+
—
+
+
4-
+
444+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
4f
+
+
4-
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
-j_
+
+
4.
4.
4-
+
+
_
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
-
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential,
comprise series 24.
+
—
_
+
-
+
4_
-
-
+
4_
4 - 4 -
+
+
+
+
4+
+
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
47
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOvEMB£K
,965 bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1964
1965
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Sept.
Nov.
Oct.
Dec.
Jan.
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.1
Millions of dollars
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 2 - Continued
Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
Electronic components
Other electrical machinery*
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraft
2,581
2,542
2,891
(NA)
649
3,099
672
P2,943
604
2,874
668
r3,000
585
2,763
620
2,637
\ 557
r690
P599
(NA)
618
549
655
484
731
691
752
r655
p710
(NA)
4,760
4,544
4,283
5,172
5,546
5,870
6,363
r6,141 r6,745
p6,508
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
Lumber, total
Furniture, total *,
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES3
(13 industrial materials components)
Industrial materials price index
Index: 1957-59 = 100
108.2
112.0
113.2
112.5
110.6
114.6
115.3
115.2
114.8
115.0
115.2
Dollars
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (Ib.)
Zinc (Ib.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib ) 15-market average
Print cloth (yd ) average
Wool tops (Ib )
Hides (Ib )
Rosin (100 Ib )
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow (Ib )
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES2
(24 retail store components)
All retail sales
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail order houses (department store merchandise).
Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
.402
.362
.061
.062
35.933 38.322
1.866
2.075
.140
.125
.311
.186
1.727
.145
.125
.310
.190
1.746
.142
.H7
11.874 11.826
.260
.264
.073
.073
.393
.073
39.824
1.629
.334
.074
36.165
1.614
.426
.076
36.055
1.894
.148
.149
.125
.125
.308
.309
.191
.194
1.691
1.667
.138
.137
11.838 12.018
.270
.258
.082
.074
.149
.126
.307
.196
1.623
.138
12.080
.266
.080
.152
.146
.303
.207
1.643
.417
.065
41.534
1.889
.162
11.733
.265
.079
.418
.075
35.677
1.867
.466
.497
.444
.071
.072
.074
31.469 29.918 29 . 872
1.911 1.930
1.874
.150
.150
.150
.149
.158
.160
.148
.145
.301
.302
.304
.303
.212
.211
.211
.210
1.712
1.695
1.747
1.743
.186
.162
.167
.164
11.919 11.581 11.523 11.488
.260
.250
.238
.254
.080
.074
.074
.074
.511
.070
32.909
1.731
.149
.156
.299
.210
1.684
.165
11.512
.234
.071
Millions of dollars
22,254
21,661 22,781
22,900
4,774
4,913
4,714
23,331
4,978
1,637
1,568
198
429
1,609
1,580
191
466
1,653
1,600
196
442
1,704
1,715
193
439
1,749
1,666
205
462
1,814
1,757
216
467
259
261
257
258
254
260
4,755
21,383
4,736
1,600
1,516
192
4'27
261
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
NA = Not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
23,743 r23,544 r23,774 p23,959
(NA)
5,015 r4,996 p5,100
rl,775 pi, 805
rl,740 pi, 768
p220
207
r468
p476
r267
p266
(NA)
(NA)'
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
* Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
1
Average
2
for November 15, 16, and 17.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census,
page 2.) Industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
3
(See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments"
bed NO™BE. /965
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
9-month spans
1965
1965
Diffusion index title and components
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS,
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES-Continued
Electrical machinery:
Electrical transmission, distr. equipment * ..
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
Radio and TV
Communication equipment
Electronic components
,
Other electrical machinery*
,
Transportation equipment:
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations ..
Complete aircraft
Aircraft parts
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*.
Other transportation equipment
Instruments, total
-
o
-
-
4 - 4 - 4 - O 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 +
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
-
o
4 - 4 - H - - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 4 - 4 +
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 +
Lumber, total ...!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Furniture, total
Stone, clay, and glass, total
Other durable goods, total
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
MATERIALS PRICES 2
(13 industrial materials components)
Percent rising
Industrial materials price index
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - +
4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
54
Copper scrap (Ib.).
Lead scrap (Ib.) ..
Steel scrap (ton)..
Tin(lb.)
Zinc(lb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.)
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES
(24 retail store components)
Percent rising .
50
All retail sales
Grocery stores
,
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
,
Mail order houses (department store merchandise)..
Variety stores
,
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
,
31
69 77
73
21
62
42
+
83
40
81 42
50 15 38
+ +
73
44-
77
83
62 75
77
62
69
54
54 46
92
69
79
83
+
+
+ = rising; o v = unchanged;- = falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
comprise series 24.
Average for November 15, 16, and 17.
Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
81
69
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NQVEMBEK 1965
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS— Continued
Basic Data —Continued
1964
1965
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
June
July
Aug.r
Sept.P
Oct.
Millions of dollars
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1- Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Jewelry stores
Liquor stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
504
512
517
518
531
517
527
511
511
(NA)
206
679
388
729
237
210
703
385
741
242
229
701
397
721
261
226
702
411
742
262
223
748
355
805
245
216
742
365
808
234
213
765
370
804
245
208
742
390
778
247
217
714
422
771
253
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
4,301
230
1,695
734
3,265
230
1,722
739
3,428
257
1,738
724
4,344
244
1,755
731
4,470
239
1,749
734
4,341
243
1,829
758
4,474
246
1,835
776
4,387
252
1,826
779
4,341
253
1,834
807
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
499
503
509
508
499
521
522
509
530
(NA)
Dec.
1965
1965
1964
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
July
Aug.r
Sept/
Oct.p
60,382
60,602
104
534
354
506
1,090
998
1,217
1,155
1,268
252
336
60,685
107
533
350
506
1,074
995
1,215
1,151
1,299
249
346
60,796
110
528
353
509
1,063
997
1,230
1,159
1,291
251
346
61,019
103
529
352
500
1,068
987
1,200
1,145
1,265
246
336
June
Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(30 industry components)
All nonagricultural establishments
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
59,206
100
536
344
501
1,041
951
1,165
1,078
1,181
237
333
59,334
100
533
345
503
1,044
964
1,166
1,086
1,207
238
332
59,676
101
540
348
503
1,046
979
1,168
1,099
1,212
240
334
59,992
100
544
352
508
1,047
957
1,179
1,113
1,237
241
337
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
1,154
76
812
1,186
495
610
532
113
339
315
1,150
74
817
1,196
495
611
536
113
343
315
1,144
73
820
1,192
498
615
637
112
350
316
1,147
72
824
1,199
500
616
539
114
354
318
1,124
73
824
1,207
501 ,
617
538
113
356
316
1,121
73
824
1,233
501
619
542
113
355
316
1,129
74
826
1,207
507
624
549
115
358
315
1,132
67
826
1,206
504
624
549
114
359
315
1,117
64
829
1,219
506
623
546
115
357
317
1,118
66
831
1,226
507
621
543
115
358
315
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retai 1 trade
637
3,24*4
4,020
3,259
9.103
633
3,235
3,939
3,270
635
3,281
3,997
3,288
Q.?//
633
3,304
4,042
3,303
629
3,186
4,044
3,318
q.?/5
630
3,220
4,068
3,352
q.^n
638
3,178
4,074
3,362
Q.v.a
631
3,214
4,092
3,356
Q ?^n
620
3,201
4,110
3,362
Q ?Aq
626
3,207
4,105
3,369
Q.177
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
q.Tiq
NA = not available.
59,913
99
535
353
504
1,043
982
1,180
1,125
1,247
243
338
= preliminary,
r = revised.
114
527
353
508
1,035
1,002
1,242
1,174
1,292
251
347
Q
1.01
bed
,965
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
9-month spans
1-month spans
1965
1965
Diffusion index title and components
c
03
O
CD
O
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES - Continued
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Family and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Jewelry stores
Liquor stores
Other durable-goods stores
Other nondurable-goods stores
4+
.0
CD
Ll_
03
03
2
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g
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS
(30 industry components)
Percent rising
All nonagricultural establishments . . . .
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment • .
•
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
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Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
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Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
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Petroleum and related products
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Contract construction
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= rising; o = unchanged;
J=>
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4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
4-
- - falling. Directions of change are computed even though data are held confidential.
TABLE
,955
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
Dec.
1965
1965
1964
Jan.
Apr.
Mar.
Feb.
June
Aug.
Sept.r
Oct.p
8,886
2,374
7,568
3,024
r8,901
2,379
r7,580
3,028
8,927
2,377
7,625
3,031
8,973
2,381
7,689
143.6
July
Thousands of employees
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTSMJon.
Finance insurance real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
2,975
8,654
2,352
7,34-0
2,979
8,689
2,342
7,365
2,987
8,730
2,335
7,407
2,997
8,754
2,340
2,997
8,763
2,344
7,451
7,491
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(24 industry components)
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
•
138.1
138.6
139.2
140.7
140.9
142.7
144.2
r!44.4
143.0
138.6
139.7
139 '.6
140.6
136.9
145.0
140.4
145.2
141.4
147.4
143.0
146.4
148.7
r!48.0
r!45.0
r!47.6
129.9
146.4
150.7
152.7
152.3
139.7
145.3
153.8
154.1
144.4
146.9
155.2
155.8
144.6
145.5
159.4
158.4
149.5
149.8
rl6l.7
r!59.2
H2.0
151.3
150.0
141.4
142.7
149.8
152.1
rl62.4
rl60.1
rl51.5
r!52.6
161 ! 8
161.6
149.4
155.7
130.2
105.5
132.4
111.9
131.8
115.6
129.2
120.5
129.9
114.2
131.6
112.8
132.6
115.4
rl33 .'5
rll7.2
115.9
164
164
151
157
127
132
(NA)
151.5
139.1
150.6
139.6
154*3
154^3
155^6
140.8
142.4
143.2
156.8
143.6
155^8
r!43.5
r!56.*3
r!46.6
156.8
147.1
159
150
130.3
140.6
105.6
131.7
142.2
108.7
132.0
143.7
106.6
131 '.5
14A.O
106.1
132.2
144.3
105.0
132.2
145.4
105.1
133.8
134.8
134.6
107.7
1-134.1
P143.0
p!07.0
140.2
126.2
139 ll
126.8
137 '.5
127.7
139 '.0
128.5
140.0
128.3
139.4
130.0
r!42.1
r!41 . 2
131.3
r!33.0
166.4
120.9
165.7
166 [7
119.0
164.7
167.8
121.5
171.1
169.5
122.2
172.6
169.2
121.5
167.7
169 '.9
121.8
169.1
172*. 8
r!73.8
r!25.8
P170.3
135
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
134
(NA)
128
167
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
123
(NA)
(NA)
HO. 3
Printing and publishing
Chemicals petroleum and rubber
Rubber and plastics products
2,352
7,567
3,018
Index: 1957-59 = 100
H9.2
«
3,013
8,814
r!43.8
r!24.5
r!70.2
133^8
(NA)
(NA)
142.5
129.3
165.9
175.3
125.0
(NA)
122.4
122.5
122
149
123.8
125.4
124.3
122.2
123.4
123.5
127.2
122.5
120.9
122.3
121.8
123.1
119.9
r!22.5
P120.7
110.1
110.4
107.7
109.8
103.2
110.6
103.1
111.4
107.9
112.0
117.1
112.5
117.1
rl!3.0
115.2
114.5
106.7
111.7
121.8
123.4
126.7
120.8
123.4
122.9
124.6
124-1
125.8
118.2
123.7
125.8
126.4
127.3
r!30.1
1-129.1
123.4
127.4
101.5
101.6
101.8
102.0
102.4'
103.1
103.0
103.3
103.2
103.4
• 100.6
101.0
101.6
97.7
97.7
101.7
101.3
101.7
101.4
101.9
97.9
101.6
101.1
123^4
(NA)
Minerals:
pnol
117
113
127
(NA)
(NA)
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING 2
(23 manufacturing industries)
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products . .
Iron and steel
102.1
101.7
100.9
100.2
98.5
98.3
98.2
98.3
98.0
99.3
98.0
101.5
100.9
101.8
101.1
101.7
101.1
101.8
101.4
101.7
101.5
102.1
101.3
NOTE: Data are not shown when held confidential by the source agency.
NA=Not available.
-'•Data
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
p
= preliminary,
99.5
97.8
rl01.9
101.6
r = revised.
(See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.)
bed
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER 7965
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
6-month spans
1965
1965
Diffusion index title and components
C
-Q
Q
•—
TO <u
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN
NONAGRICULTURALESTABLISHMENTS-Con.
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(24 industry components)
Percent rising1
All industrial production
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery.
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
,
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods:
Textiles, apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
Minerals:
Qoal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING
(23 manufacturing industries)
Percent rising
All manufacturing industries
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
>—
> ^ C
QjQ
O.
3
3
G5
si
-=^
-^
<:
^
a.
ro
=3
-2?
u-
si
<c
•4-'
°
+
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
f
+
+
0
+
+
67
67
79
58
71
81
81
71
4-
4-
_
4.
4-
4-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4
-
4
-
4
-
4
4
-
4
4
.
4.6
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
79
79
92
92
83
85
_
4
.
4
+
1 - 4 . 4 . 4 .
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+•
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
4.
4.
4.
4.
4-
4
4-
-
4_
Q
4
4_
_
4
4_
_
4.
4
+
4.
4.
+
_
+
~h
4.
+
+
4.
+
4
+
+
NA.
-
4 _ 4 _ 4 _
4 . 4 . 4 .
83
83
83
71
83
+
4"
+
+
+
+
+
4-
4-
-4-
4-
4-
-J-
4-
+
4.
_
.
4
4-
NA
4.
4^
+
.
4
4.
.
4
.
4
.
4
+
+
+
4.
4
_
4
.
+
4.
MA
+
NA NA
NA. NA
+
+
4.
+
+
+
+
+
Q
4.
+
+
+
4 . 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 .
4
+
4.
+
+
+
_
4 ^ 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 .
_)_
+
+
+
+
4 . 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 . 4 4 4 .
4 . 4 .
-
1 | | | { | 1 f ||
co
+
4
.
+
+
4.
4.
.
NA
4
MA
i
4.
|
MA
|JA
|_
4.
_
4.
4.
4.
+
+
+
+
4.
_|_
+
+
MA
+
+
+
+
NA NA
+
4.
MA-
MA
4-
_
4
4.
_
4
4.
—
+
+
63
61
67
_
4
-
_
4.
+
67
6l
4 . 4 . 4 .
4^
4.
4.
NA.
+
+
+
NA
61
6l
4 - 4 . 4 . 4 . ^ - 4 .
~t~
O
+
+
_j_
O
5 4.
54.
_|_
4~
522
~ f ~ ~ f ~ +
o
+
+
+
+ NA
70
78
83
76
80
83
76
67
70
+
0
+
+
+
+
+
+
0
6l2
_|_
-f-
-f Arising; o = unchanged; - = fall ing. NA Not available.
rhe percent rising is based on 24 industry components. Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for
2
the current month are rounded.
Based on 22 components.
lr
S3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
NOVEMBER i96s bed
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Basic Data—Continued
1964
1965
1965
Diffusion index title and components
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
June
July
Aug.
Sept.r
Oct.P
Index: 1957-59-100
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURINQi-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
Tobacco products and bottled beverages
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products
p = preliminary.
x
113.2
99.9
108.0
104.7
104.1
95.8
100.8
109. A
111.6
100.1
107.8
103.9
105.2
96.8
100.8
107.9
112.1 112.3
100.1 100.4
108.6 . 109.0
104.3
104.4
105.1 105.0
96.9
97.3
101.0
100.7
109.1
108.4
112.9
101.0
109.1
104.3
105.4
97.3
101.0
111.0
116.2
101.2
109.0
104.8
105.6
97.2
100.7
113.0
115.8
101.4
109.3
104.7
105.2
97.3
100.5
113.3
116.6
101.7
110.2
105.7
105.2
96.7
100.7
112.2
117.2
101.7
110.0
105.9
104.8
96.6
100.7
110.8
116.8
101.7
109.8
105.9
104.8
96.4
(NA)
110.5
101.1
107.4
98.9
102.5
96.9
103.1
98.9
97.3
93.3
91.8
105.1
101.3
107.4
99.1
103.0
97.0
103.3
98.6
97.0
94.1
92.0
105.1
102.2
108.0
99.2
102.9
96.4
103.3
98.7
97.4
94.0
92.0
105.9
102.0
108.0
99.3
102.7
96.2
103.4
99.3
97.3
94.5
92.1
106.7
102.9
108.5
99.5
102.8
96.0
103.5
99.6
97.5
94.4
92.2
106.4
106.2
107.7
100.7
103.9
95.7
103.6
106.3
107.2
100.9
104.7
95.6
103.6
107.0
107.1
100.8
105.1
94.8
103.7
106.1
107.4
100.9
105.5
94.4
103.9
106.2
107.4
100.9
105.9
93.4
104.1
100.1
97.4
95.4
93.5
107.6
100.2
97.5
95.5
93.5
108.4
100.3
97.3
97.4
93.4
112.0
100.3
97.4
96.7
93.5
111.2
100.4
97.5
96.8
93.1
112.2
r = revised.
Data are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
54
(See "Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2 . )
Basic data for components of diffusion index D19, Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks, and of diffusion index D5, Initial
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, are not avaih
able from the Census Bureau.
Section THREE
charts and tables
REFERENCE CYCLES
Current expansion compared with expansions in
earlier business cycles
PERCENT CHANGES FOR CURRENT AND EARLIER EXPANSIONS
Percent of reference peak levels
Percent change from reference trough levels
Percent of specific peak levels
Percent change from specific trough levels
57
CHART
NOVEMBER 1965
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES
1111111111111
Percent
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
-«
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
Reference trough dates
July 1957to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
—— May 1960 to present (Reference trougi trough: Feb. 1961)
Percent
ITI71111111111
«<
Reference trough dates
23. Industrial
130
materials prices
120
-,110
17. Ratio, price
to unit labor
110
cost, mfg.
100*3
105
90
100*
80
70
J
95
24. New orders, mach.
and equip, indus.
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
*A
200
190
180
170
160
210
200
190
180
170
160
150
A
: ' v-. / •
150
140
140 :
130
130 ^
120
120
110*
110
100
100*
90
90
J
-12-6
0 +6 -hi2 -K18 +24 +30 +3$+42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
80
80
-12 -6
0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
*Reference peak level. ^Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
OPoint at which a new reference trough was reached.
bed
CHART
NOVEMBER 1965
CYCLICAL
COMPARISONS
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
'i 1 1 1 1 1 !
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough:
Oct. 1949)
i
i
i
jiiMii
rmi
i1
—Reference trough dates
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
—. May 1960 to present (Reference trough:
"I
I
"T""l
r
m
|
!
IIMI
|
Feb. 1961)
I
I
|'""|M"
Percent
43. Unemployment rate, total
-«
(percent unemployed, inverted)
Reference trough dates
41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments
Percent
55.
Wholesale prices exc.
farm prod, and foods
115
47. Industrial production
110
*—.
105^
§
100*
95
- 90
-1 85
-12-6
0
+6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
-12-6
0 +6 +12+18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. 1Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
*Reference peak level.
* Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
59
CHART
NOVEMBER
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
1965
bed
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
Percent
160
PERIOD COVERED
4th Q. 1948 to 3rd Q. 1954 (Reference trough:
2nd Q. 1953 to 2nd Q. 1958 (Reference trough:
4th Q. 1949)
Reference trough dates
3rd Q. 1954)
150
3rd Q. 1957 to 1st Q. 1961 (Reference trough: 2nd Q. 1958)
. 2nd Q. 1960 to present (Reference trough: 1st Q. 1961)
Mlf 1 1I 1I 1I 1I 1I I 1 1 IT
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1I I1111111 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
140
Percent
• Reference trough dates
130
49. GNP in current dollars
140
120
135
130
»I
C\|
120
100*
115
110
90
105
100*
-1 95
140
135
130
67. Bank rates on
50.
GNP in 1958 dollars
130
125
short-term business loans
120
125
115
120 2
110
115 1
105
110
--o
.•o
100*
105
95
100*
90
95
_12 -6
0
+6 +12 -1-18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
-12 -6
0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest quarter in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this quarter and comparable quarters of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle
in a givet, distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc.
* Latest data anticipated.
*Reference peak level.
* Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
60
I
bed
NOVEMBER 7965
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
CHART
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLES—Continued
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 to Aug. 1954 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
-Reference trough dates
July 1953 to Apr. 1958 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 to Feb. 1961 (Reference trough:
i
May 1960 to present (Reference trough:
Apr. 1958)
Feb. 1961)
84.
I II M M M M I I I I I I I I I i I I I I II II
H II II I I I II I I II II M l I I I
I I I U I I I II
Percent
Fed. cash surplus or deficit
(ann. rate, bil. dol. 6-term moving avg.) 1
Reference trough dates
-I 115
62. Labor cost
per unit of output, mfg.
-5
-10
-15
98.
Change in money supply and time deposits
(ann. rate, percent. 6-term moving avg.)1
+10
64. Book value of mfrs
inventories
+4
+2
-2
-12-6
0 +6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
-12-6
0
+6
+ 1 2 + 1 8 +24 +30 +36 +42 +48 +54 +60
Months from reference troughs
Table 2 shows latest month in current (1961) expansion. Changes for this month and comparable months of previous expansions are shown in table 6. Various scales are used. Scale L-l is a logarithmic scale with 1
cycle in a given distance; scale L-2 is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in that distance, etc. l Lines represent actual data rather than percentages of reference peak levels.
* Reference peak level. ^Point at which this expansion reached a new reference peak.
O Point at which a new reference trough was reached.
61
5
TABLE
H
CYCLICAL COMPARISONS
NOVEMBER 7965
£)CCf
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
reference
troughI
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion beginning inJuly
1924
July
1921
66.5
36.1
28.3
20.5
97.2
45.9
51.7
124.8
(NA)
42.0
12.5
184.8
51.2
13.2
111.6
201.7
185.9
40.2
353.5
36.0
57.8
(NA)
12.3
100.0
37.0
133.3
114.3
122.7
49.5
77.8
32.1
88.7
95.2
189.4
80.3
117.3
135.6
209.3
(NA)
65.8
110.5
(NA)
(NA)
52.9
(NA)
37.2
79.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
38.5
37.3
(NA)
(NA)
111.5
(NA)
293.3
83.9
(NA)
(NA)
94.0
(NA)
133.7
63.1
(NA)
(NA)
105.6
-2.7
114.1
129.0
108.2
-1.8
125.3
136.6
132.2
(NA)
190.5
191.1
93.5
-13.7
84.9
92.1
60.7
(NA)
54.8
65.5
99.9
(NA)
118.8
125.8
87.7
(NA)
116.2
(NA)
118.3
140.0
127.9
120.6
112.5
146.6
131.7
126.5
122.3
145.1
133.8
127.9
(NA)
157.1
192.0
138.8
106.5
64.6
82.0
87.9
87.5
55.8
60.8
62.2
128.0
141.5
125.8
114.7
(NA)
113.1
(NA)
109.4
101.6
101.1
111.2
109.0
111.5
92.3
70.2
86.4
64.9
51st
57th
138.7
145.9
101.6
97.9
106.7
115.7
123.4
120.6
(NA)
(NA)
81.1
78.7
32.0
20.9
112.2
128.2
61.7
68.1
56th
55th
55th
54th
99.3
121.9
157.9
93.5
101.9
110.1
142.5
103.9
108.9
114.2
157.1
120.9
114.6
147.6
264.5
136.4
134.0
160.1
74.6
(NA)
100.0
116.0
130.7
53.3
75.8
(NA)
(NA)
100.6
85.9
(NA)
(NA)
106.0
74.4
(NA)
(NA)
83.4
54th
54th
-12.8
+9.52
-6.4
+4.68
-4.2
+1.50
-1.9
+4.86
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
56th
55th
55th
56th
102.5
116.2
197.2
143.1
101.0
103.6
93.3
124.7
100.0
94.5
84.3
140.6
99.2
69.2
79.7
127.8
111.3
188.0
254.2
308.2
66.3
29.2
30.8
55.6
1. Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, 2commercial and
industrial, floor space
13 New business incorporations . . *
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
56th
109.7
128.2
116.9
124.7
139.5
55th
55th
56th
161.0
111.6
105.7
116.3
128.1
48.9
129.2
195.1
55.7
139.5
129.2
64.1
16 Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing . .
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
23 Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29 New building permits private housing
54th
56th
56th
56th
56th
56th
161.2
103.3
165.5
110.5
148.3
118.2
122.3
99.5
129.1
92.3
121.0
127.3
128.4
101.9
235.1
106.0
143.6
118.7
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments . . .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted)3. .
47 Industrial production
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)
56th
56th
56th
54th
112.2
+0.9
130.7
134.2
105.4
-1.3
116.8
128.2
50 GNP in 1958 dol lars (Q)
51 Bank debits all SMSA's except NY.
52 Personal income
54 Sales of retail stores
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods
54th
56th
56th
56th
124.5
157.4
134.5
130.8
56th
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a Actual. 4
b Anticipated "
62.
64
66
67.
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing . . .
Book value of manufacturers' inventories
Consumer instal Iment debt
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q) . . .
'
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
84 Federal cash surplus or deficit 3'5
98. Change in money supply and time deposits 3'5 .
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1,17,19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the 1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference peak month. Similarly, the reference peak quarter is used as the percentage
base for quarterly series (series 16, 49,50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9,13,14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months
centered on the reference peak month is used as the base. See MCD footnote to appendix C. For all earlier expansions except the one beginningin June 1938, the peak had
been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates. NA Not available.
^•Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CTCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference peak levels.
^Anticipated
expenditures (4th quarter 19o5) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only. Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries.
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
62
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
bed NOVEMBER ,965
TABLE
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
6-month spans
1965
1965
Diffusion index title and components
p
Q.
<£.
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES,
ALL MANUFACTURING-Continued
Durable goods-Continued
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Fabricated nonstructural metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods
,
Tobacco products and bottled beverages ,
Cotton products
,
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and leather products ,
NA
o
+
o
+
+
o NA
o
o
4-
+
+
+
+
1-month spans
9-month spans
1965
1965
~
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES,
500 COMMON STOCKS 1
(23 industry components)2
Percent rising 3
Index of 500 stock prices
Coal, bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Textile products
Paper
Publishing
Chemicals
Drugs
,
Oil composite
,
Building materials composite
Steel
92
82 64 71
67
0
25
80 81 67
66
75
77
77
80
58
52
58 73
68
o
o
-
-
,
Metal fabricating
,
Machinery composite
,
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances —
Electronics
,
Automobiles
,
Radio and television broadcasters ,
Telephone companies
,
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
.—
Retai I stores composite
,
Life insurance
,
+ = rising; o = unchanged;- = falling.
x
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
The 23 components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
3
Based on 78 components to November 1964 and on 77 components thereafter.
2
representing an additional 23 of
55
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
„„ bed
NOVCHMI>
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS—Continued
Directions of Change—Continued
1-month spans
9-month spans
1965
1965
Diffusion index title and components
D5. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS1
(26 area components)
Percent rising
47 labor market areas.
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (19)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson(20)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (2 5)
North Centra! region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit (5)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (18)
Milwaukee (15)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis(8)
South region:
Atlanta (17)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (16)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
24
57
66
62
60
51 34
38
79
57
62
70
74
72
79
79
60
66
62 79
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle(22)
- = rising; o = unchanged; + = falling. The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises.
Data used are for the week ending nearest the 22d of the month.
1
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
(See
"Seasonal and Related Statistical Adjustments", page 2.) The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas.
Directions of
change are shown separately for only the 26 largest areas.
The number in parentheses indicates the size rank for each labor
market area.
56
bed HOVE*™ "65
CYCLICAL
COMPARISONS
H
COMPARISONS FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AND REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
Selected series
Month
after
reference
trough !
Percent change from reference trough of expansion beginning in-
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
56th
55th
55th
56th
+4.1
+7.5
+125.0
+52.9
+4.4
+14.0
+61.7
+41.3
+2.3
+31.4
+27.5
+57.0
0.0
-22.0
+18.8
+47.6
+27.6
+110.4
(NA)
+412.7
-1.7
-28.7
-16.7
+189.7
-32.3
-50.6
-60.1
-79.5
+6.4
+113.6
+66.7
+11.4
+ 5.5
+265.9
(NA)
+161.8
56th
+9.6
+32.1
-0.1
-11.0
+48.5
+238.9
-87.3
+12.7
+106.0
55th
55th
56th
+72.8
+20.0
+8.0
+48.0
+34.2
-35.1
+33.4
+65.2
-41.5
+61.7
+23.5
-45.3
+276.8
-53.3
+380.6
+201.1
-27.1
+388.1
-85.8
-3.6
-59.8
+91.9
+54.4
+36.1
+81.7
+7.6
+90.4
54-th
56th
56th
56th
56th
56th
+83.6
+4.4
+47.0
+15.8
+56.4
+21.9
+57.4
+5.3
+47.9
+6.2
+37.1
+25.2
+34.0
+4.7
+85.8
+6.0
+54.1
-0.8
+8.8
-3.0
+82.3
+6.9
+33.8
-15.3
(NA)
(NA)
+4.7
+63.3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+79.8
+92.4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-70.6
-61.8
(NA)
(NA)
+107.1
(NA)
+181.6
0.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+80.9
+50.7
(NA)
(NA)
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments . .
43. Unemployment rate (percent), total (inverted) 3 .
47 Industrial production
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)
56th
56th
56th
54th
+14.3
+2.6
+38.6
+34.5
+9.8
+1.9
+36.0
+30.5
+9.4
+0.8
+25.4
+30.0
+14.0
+2.3
+36.9
+41.3
+47.5
(NA)
+178.9
+117.0
+36.7
+11.7
+76.0
+82.7
-36.8
(NA)
-41.7
-34.7
+14.9
(NA)
+44.7
+28.8
+27.3
(NA)
+70.1
+44.8
50
51
52.
54.
55.
54th
56th
56th
56th
+26.3
+53.7
+33.2
+33.4
+22.5
+44.5
+27.6
+22.5
+15.1
+44.3
+31.7
+27.4
+24.4
+51.1
+40.3
+27.9
(NA)
+88.1
+115.6
+70.3
+47.9
+69.4
+66.7
+67.0
-14.4
-48.7
-39.7
-37.8
+28.4
+46.0
+25.8
+14.7
+41.8
+45.8
+47.0
+16.7
56th
+1.7
+1.6
+12.1
+14.8
+18.0
+27.5
-24.5
-5.4
+2.5
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q):
a. Actual
b. Anticipated4
51st
57th
+48.7
+56.4
+26.5
+21.9
+11.7
+21.1
+54.2
+50.7
(NA)
(NA)
+372.6
+359.0
-63.6
-76.2
+60.8
+83.8
+79.6
+98.3
62.
64.
66.
67.
56th
55th
55th
54th
-1.8
+23.3
+52.8
+0.6
-4.3
+14.3
+41.3
+20.4
+ 5.8
+22.2
+51.9
+26.7
+18.6
+58.1
+111.3
+35.8
+29.1
+69.1
-20.0
(NA)
+36.4
+95.8
+173.3
-31.6
-23.1
(NA)
(NA)
+4.5
-16.4
(NA)
(NA)
+20.8
-17.3
(NA)
(NA)
-22.6
54th
54th
-6.0
+4.04
-2.4
-1.38
-8.5
-1.50
+2.5
+4.04
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
3 Layoff rate manufacturing (inverted)
6 New orders durable goods industries
7 Private nonfarm housing starts
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial floor space2
13 New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing. .
23 Industrial materials prices
•
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
29 New building permits private housing
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
GNP in 1958 dol lars (Q)
Bank debits all SMSA's except N Y
Personal income
Sales of retail stores
Wholesale prices except farm products and
foods
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing. . .
Book value of manufacturers' inventories
Consumer installment debt
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). . .
OTHER SELECTED U.S. SERIES
84 Federal cash surplus or deficit 3>5
98. Change in money supply and time deposits3'5 .
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1,17,19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 54, 55, 62, 64, and 66), the value for the month indicated in the 1st column (month after reference trough) is divided by the value for the reference trough month. Similarly, the reference trough quarter is used as the percentage base for quarterly series (series 16, 49, 50, 61, and 67). For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 24, 29, and 51), the average of the 3 months
centered on the reference trough month is used asthe base. See MCD footnote to appendixC. For all earlier expansions except the one beginning in June 1938, the peak had
been passed and a reference contraction was underway by the month indicated in the 1st column. See appendix A for the reference peak dates.
NA Not available.
x
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for -which data are available. Measures for shorter time
spans can be found in earlier issues of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS.
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term mov3
ing average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Measures are differences from the reference trough levels.
^Anticipated
expenditures (4th quarter 1965) are used for computing the entry shown for the current expansion only.
Actual expenditures are
5
used for all other entries.
Changes are computed in a 6-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
63
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough, from
previous
peak)
Trough
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867..
December 1870
March 1879
Cycle
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
June 1857. .
October 1860 .
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873
March 1882
(X)
18
8
32
18
65
30
22
46
~18
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
"%
99
(X)
40
54
50
52
101
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890.
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899. . .
September 1902
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
4?
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907. . .
January 1910
January 1913
August 1918
January 1920
May 1923
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
~2§
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926
August 1929
May 1937. . .
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953. .
14
13
43
13
8
11
?7
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
13
9
9
35
25
(X)
58
44
34
48
34
(X)
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
X
49
2
54
3
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
4
46
5
48
6
August 1954 .
April 1958
February 1961
.
. . July 1957
May 1960
46
42
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean
War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
X
3
5
25 cycles, 1857-1960.
4 cycles, 1945-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
2
4
6
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
65
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg... Dec.
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
May
Jan.
13 New "business incorporations
Mar.
17 Ratio price to unit labor cost, mfg
Oct.
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Dec.
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment Indus... Nov.
Dec.
29. New building permits, private housing
'60 Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 June '32 Apr. '28 July '24 Feb. '21
'61
'61
'61
'60
'60
'60
'60
June
Nov.
Apr.
Dec.
Apr.
Feb.
Feb.
'58
'57
'58
'57
'58
'58
'58
(NSC)
(NSC)
Mar. '54
Sep. '53
Feb. '54
Mar. '54
Sep. '53
Feb. '61
May '61
Feb. '61
4thQ '60
IstQ '61
(NSC)
Dec. '60
Apr. '61
May
July
Apr.
IstQ
IstQ
Feb.
May
Mar.
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
Aug.
Sep.
Apr.
2ndQ
2ndQ
Apr.
Sep.
Jan.
'54 Oct. »49
'54 Oct. '49
'54 Oct. '49
'54 4thQ '49
'54 2ndQ '49
'54 July '49
'54 Oct. '49
(NSC)
'54
June
June
May
2ndQ
IstQ
May
June
May
'38 Mar.
'38 May
'38 July
'38 IstQ
'38 3rdQ
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
'38 Mar.
'33 Jan. '28 July '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'32 Nov. '27 July '24 Apr. '21
(NSC) 4thQ '21
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
'32
'33 4thQ '26 2ndQ '24 2ndQ '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
(NSC) Mar. '22
(NSC)
'33
'61 3rdQ
'61 Apr.
' 61Aug.
'61 2ndQ
'58
'59
'58
'58
IstQ
Apr.
Sep.
IstQ
'55
'55
'54
'55
3rdQ
June
June
2ndQ
'38
'40
'39
'40
'33 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 4thQ '21
(NSC) Apr. '22
(NSC)
'33
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'33
'31 4thQ '27 4thQ '24 3rdQ '22
Aug.
Feb.
July
June
June
Apr.
Jan.
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
Sep. '38 Oct. '32 Sep. '27 July '24 Mar. '21
•Sep. '39 Dec. '34 Dec. '26 June '24 Jan. '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) Oct. '23 Aug. '21
Apr. '38 June '32
June '38 July '32 Aug. '28 June '24 July '21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41.
43.
47
49.
50.
52
53.
54.
Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
Industrial production
GNP in current dollars (Q)
GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
,
Personal income
Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
Sales of retail stores
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.
Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing .Sep.
June
Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ
4thQ
Aug.
Jan.
IstQ
'49
'50
'50
'50
IstQ
July
May
3rdQ
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers, mfg...
9. Construction contracts, commercial and
industrial. ..
13 . New business incorporations
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
23. Industrial materials prices
24. New orders, machinery and equipment indus...
29. New building permits, private housing
Apr. '59 Nov. '55 Mar. '53
(NSC) Dec. »36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 Nov. '22
'46 July '37 Jan. '29 Sep. '25
'46 Dec. '36 Jan. '29 Oct. '25
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'48
(NSC)
'48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
'48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29 Nov. '25
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'48
'47
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Aug. '22 Dec. '19
Apr. '23 Dec. '19
(NA)
(NA)
Mar. '23 July '19
Mar. '23 Apr. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'60
'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'58
Mar.
Feb.
Oct.
July
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.
'56
'56
'55
'56
'55
'56
'55
(NSC) Mar.
(NSC) July
Feb. '51 May
Jan. '53 June
Feb. '51 Jan.
Feb. '51 Apr.
July '50 Oct.
Apr. '60
Feb. '60
Jan. '60
2ndQ '60
IstQ ,'60
(NSC)
May '60
Apr. '60
Mar.
Mar.
Feb.
3rdQ
3rdQ
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
'57
June
July
July
2ndQ
2ndQ
Oct.
July
Mar.
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
Sep. '48 July
Jan. '48 July
Ju3y '48 May
4thQ '48 3rdQ
4thQ '48 3rdQ
Oct. '48 June
Aug. '48 May
(NSC) Sep.
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
'37
3rdQ
Apr.
Sep.
4thQ
'57 3rdQ
'58 Mar.
»57 Sep.
'57 4thQ
'53
'54
'53
'53
4thQ
May
Jan.
2ndQ
'37 2ndQ '29 4thQ '26 2ndQ '23 2ndQ '20
(NSC)
(NSC) Oct. '23 Nov. '20
'37
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
'37 Jan. '30
'32 3rdQ '29 4thQ '26 3rdQ '23 4thQ '20
June
Apr.
May
July
Nov.
July
Nov.
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Industrial production
49 GNP in current dollars (Q)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., construction..
54. Sales of retail stores
Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '29 Mar. '27 May '23 Feb. '20
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
3rdQ '29
(NA)
Aug. '29 2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Sep. '29
(NSC) July '20
(NSC)
Sep. '29
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61.
62.
64.
67.
Business expenditures, new plant and equip.. 2ndQ
Labor cost per unit of out put, manufacturing. Mar.
Sep.
Book value of manufacturers1 inventories
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q). 4thQ
'60
'61
'60
'59
'48
'49
'49
'49
3rdQ
Dec.
Oct.
3rdQ
NOTE: Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a trough or peak as distinguished
from reference dates which are those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows,
for selected indicators, the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
66 Bank of St. Louis
Federal Reserve
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes
i/c
Monthly series
CI
I
C
I/O
for
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
A/Jp-pl
span
CI
I
C
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing.
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
3 . Layoff rate, manufacturing
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance
6. New orders, durable goods industries
0.49
4.80
1.82
9.35
17.76
0.42
4.52
1.29
8.52
17.12
0.21
1.63
1.18
3.88
3.99
2.00
2.77
1.09
2.20
4.29
2
3
2
3
5
0.95
.91
.59
.70
.89
2.15
2.17
2.27
2.17
1.63
1.65 10.58
1.74 9.93
1.63
9.77
1.74 8.18
1.44 6.35
4.06
4.42
5.25
5.96
3.08
5.29
3.79
4.62
3.25
2.49
1.61
1.86
2.02
2
3
.86
.59
1.72
1.67
1.51
1.54
9.77
8.33
3.94
4.56
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
7 . Private nonf arm housing starts
29. New building permits, private housing
38. Index of net "business formation
13 . New business incorporations
14. Liabilities of business failures
15 . Large business failures
4.47 4.01
9.66
9.43
4.93
4.61
7.34
7.31
3.39
3.82
1.00
.78
2.68
2.36
16.86 16.36
13.09 12.81
1.61
1.67
1.47
1.14
1.48
.65
1.10
2.52
2.11
2.49
5.65
3.14
6.41
2.29
1.19
2.15
6.49
6.07
3
6
4
6
3
2
3
6
6
.84
C1)
.82
(x)
.68
.66
.77
C1X)
( )
1.76
1.70
1.82
1.53
1.89
2.50
2.10
1.48
1.53
1.51 12.50
6.63
1.54
1.59 10.75
6.13
1.53
1.53 14.38
1.60 14.60
1.70
6.30
5.77
1.32
1.37
9.77
3.62
3.03
3.71
2.32
3.32
4.90
3.02
2.26
5.30
.60
2.65
.48
1.86
.29
1.67
1.66
1.11
2
2
.97
.68
2.23
2.35
1.77
1.67
6.18
12.70
3.38
3.94
6.81
5.29
3.10
1.71
3
.66
2.54
1.76
10.58
4.63
5.81
5.32
2.14
2.49
3
.76
1.87
1.63
12.70
3.91
7.68
1.32
5.54
1.04
4.73
.74
1.17
1.41
2
2
.79
.95
3.53
2.44
2.12
2.05
9.77
11.55
4.20
4.06
.30
.36
3.94
5.63
4.82
3.11
.15
.29
3.08
4.16
2.56
1.88
.24
.19
2.29
2.74
3.56
2.35
.63
1.53
1.34
1.52
.72
.80
1
2
2
2
1
1
.63
.79
.71
.86
.72
.80
5.15
1.96
2.75
2.88
3.74
3.47
1.96
1.54
1.79
1.89
2.12
1.60
15.44
15.89
11.00
11.00
9.07
9.62
5.15
3.64
3.84
4.80
3.74
3.47
1.09
47 . Industrial production
1.48
51. Bank debits, all SMSA's except New York
52 . Personal income
.50
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, construction...
.85
.78
54. Sales of retail stores
.17
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and foods
.58
1.44
.27
.57
.63
.10
.79
.60
.43
.61
.44
.13
.73
2.40
.63
.93
1.43
.77
1
3
1
1
2
1
.73
.54
.63
.93
.85
.77
3.53
1.69
4.55
2.63
2.53
3.53
2.05
1.53
1.81
1.65
1.80
2.65
9.77
18.14
30.00
16.67
9.54
11.55
3.53
4.31
4.55
2.63
3.62
3.53
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher
inventories
26. Buying policy production materials, commitments 60
days or longer
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
deliveries
23 . Industrial materials prices
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagri^-xiltiiral establishments
42. Total nonagricultural employment
43 Unemployment rate total
40. Unemployment rate, married males
45 Average weekly insured unemployment, State.
46 . Help-wanted advert is ing
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
64 Book value of manufacturers! inventories
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished
goods
.56
.54
• 41
.19
.30
.49
1.37
.39
2
1
.82
.39
2.40
8.33
1.77
2.02
7.45
13.89
3.70
8.33
.80
.83
.54
.17
.49
.78
1.10
.22
2
1
.53 2.40
.22 11.45
1.42
2.29
15.63
18.00
5.17
11.45
3.73
3.57
4.10 4.02
26.87 26.37
15.12 14.78
26.25 26.21
.61
.74
4.09
2.70
6.12
5.85
5.43
6.45
5.47
4.28
6
6
6
6
6
C1)
C11)
C)
(X)
C1)
1.45
1.59
1.51
1.47
1.58
1.38
1.43
1.46
1.43
1.47
9.15
5.93
6.61
5.95
2.53
3.26
2.27
2.48
2.86
23.00 23.02
7.33
5.69
1.80 1.39
1.50
1.68
2.57 2.17
.58
.27
3.60
4.71
1.04
.58
1.12
.52
6.39
1.21
1.34
2.59
1.94
.52
6
2
2
4
3
1
C1)
.81
.95
.93
.86
.52
1.51
2.47
2.72
2.26
2.63
9.13
1.45
2.00
2.13
1.79
1.90
2.63
5.56
9.71
10.46
8.67
8.56
17.13
2.53
3.55
3.75
4.90
3.55
9.13
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
82 Federal cash payments to public
S3. Federal cash receipts from public
90 Defense Department obligations, procurement
91 Defense Department obligations, total
92 . Military contract awards in U.S
99 New orders, defense products
114 . Treasury bill rate
115 Treasury bond yields
116. Corporate bond yields
117 Municipal bond yields
118. Mortgage yields
8.50;
See footnotes at end of table.
67
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED M E A S U R E S FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 1.-Average Percentage Changes-Continued
V5
Monthly series
CI
I
C
1/5
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
MCD
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE— Con.
86. Exports, excluding military aid
94 Construction contracts , value
96 Unfilled orders durable goods industries
4.59
3.61
.15
7.03
1.51
4.39
3.47
.10
6.69
.57
1.11
.97
.13
1.69
1.34
3.95
3.58
.77
3.96
.43
4
4
1
5
1
0.96
.85
.77
.84
.43
1.77
1.59
6.00
1.52
5.95
1.66
1.51
2.25
1.45
1.87
7.06
7.53
25.20
7.88
13.89
2.75
2.97
6.00
3.59
5.95
.90
1.14
.86
1.42
1.36
1.44
1.70
.77
1.09
.83
1.18
1.20
1.41
1.07
.52
.47
.50
.69
.68
.74
1.23
1.48
2.32
1.66
1.71
1.76
1.91
.87
2
3
2
2
2
3
1
.72
.81
.89
.93
.89
.64
.87
3.47
2.40
3.47
2.86
3.21
2.70
2.91
2.12
1.87
2.40
2.14
2.08
1.82
1.52
15.63
8.93
31.25
18.00
25.00
31.00
17.86
8.27
5.59
7.75
5.43
11.27
6.42
2.91
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
123. Canada
122 . United Kingdom
121 . OECD European countries
125 . West Germany
126 . France
127. Italy
128. Japan
Quarterly series
CI
I
C
i/5
1/5
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
QCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11.
16.
18.
22.
New capital appropriations, manufacturing
Corporate profits after taxes
Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate, all
industries
11.35
5.70
6.76
7.11
3.47
4.80
7.31
3.89
4.17
0.97
.89
1.15
1
1
2
0.97
.89
.56
2.42
3.27
2.47
1.48
1.44
1.40
5.11
4.90
5.25
2.42
3.27
2.73
4.43
3.17
2.64
1.20
2
.56
2.33
1.32
4.08
4.00
1.23
1.47
1.29
.36
.37
.36
1.08
1.34
1.20
.33
.28
.30
1
1
1
.33
.28
.30
3.27
5.44
9.80
1.48
1.26
1.20
5.44
7.00
9.80
3.27
5.44
9.80
3.15
.85
2.31
1.26
.43
1.57
2.64
.68
2.00
.48
.63
.79
1
1
1
.48
.63
.79
4.67
2.88
2.47
1.83
1.20
1.56
4.67
5.44
4.67
4.67
2.88
2.47
11.61
4.32
6.57
8.33
2.86
1.47
7.58
2.90
6.15
1.10
.99
.24
2
1
1
.43
.99
.24
2.59
2.30
3.21
1.33
1.48
1.61
4.00
4.60
7.50
4.30
2.30
3.21
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
50. GNP in 1954- dollars
49 GNP in current dollars
57 . Final sales
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61 Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
68. Labor cost per dollar of real corporate GNP
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
110 . Total private borrowing
Ill . Corporate gross s avings
97 Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
NOTE: For most series, measures are computed for a period
of at least 10 years.
Figures for series 7, 86, 87, and 116
are based on shorter periods.
-"•Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in this table.
More complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius Shiskin,
issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957).
"CI", is the average month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter)
percentage change, without regard to sign, in the seasonally
68
adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular component,
obtained by dividing the_ cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series. "C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth, flexible moving average of the seasonally
adjusted s.eries.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate
of the appropriate time span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series.
It is small for smooth series
and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage
changes are computed separately for the irregular component
and the cyclical component over 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan. -Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to
5-month spans.
Averages, without regard to sign, are then
computed for the changes over each span.
MCD is the shortest
span in months for which the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than
the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
irregular component, and remains so. Thus, it indicates the
point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series
become dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months,
all series with an MOD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
Similarly, "QCD" provides an estimate of the appropriate time
span over which to observe cyclical movements in quarterly
series.
It is the shortest span (in quarters.) for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the irregular component, and remains so.
M
I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series. For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month spans and
for spans of the period of MCD. When MOD is "6", no I/C_ratio
is shown for the MOD period. For quarterly series, I/O is
shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MOD curve. The MOD
curve is a moving average (with the number of
MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series.
terms equal to
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected ADR
of a random series gives an indication of whether the changes
approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month intervals
in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is 1.5. The
actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time.
Over 1-month intervals in a moving average
(MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR is 2.0.
For example, the ADR of CI is 1.67 for the series on new
orders, durable goods industries (series 6). This indicates
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the
average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series.
The ADR measures shown in the next two columns,
1.54 for I and 8.33 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component.
Finally, ADR is 4.56 for the MCD moving average. This indicates that a 3-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted
series (3 months being the MGD span) reverses direction, on
the average, about every 4 to 5 months. The increase in the
ADR from 1.67 for CI to 4.56 for the MCD moving average indicates that, for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD
moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical-trend
movements of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in
the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
Appendix C-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.-Average Unit Changes
Vc
Unit of
measure
Monthly series
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
CI
I
C
1/5
Ann. rate,
bil. dol..
3.50
0.85
3.96
3.37
20. Change in book value of manufacturers
inventories of materials , supplies
do
1.45
.37
3.93
1.52
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods. Bil. dol...
.16
2.93
.46
.49
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
Ann. rate,
4.31
bil. dol.. 4.39
.82
5.27
93 . Free reserves
Mil. dol. . .104.23 82.19 52.77 1.56
85 . Change in money supply
Ann. rate,
.30 10.37
percent. . . 3.06
3.07
2.51
.29
98. Change in money supply and time deposits.
2.53
do
8.76
112 . Change in business loans
Ann. rate,
bil. dol.. 1.22
.26
4.51
1.19
113. Change in consumer installment debt
.85
.... do
.75
.34
2.19
88. Merchandise trade balance
Mil. dol... 58.96 56.60 17.50
3.23
1
for
MCD
span
MCD
Unit of
measure
CI
I
C
I/C
CI
I
C
MCD
4
0.94
1.47
1.44
7.94
3.22
5
4
.92
.79
1.64
1.79
1.46
1.58
6.05
7.44
3.15
3.45
5
2
.91
.95
1.51
2.03
1.40
1.52
7.00
10.31
2.61
3.17
6
6
t1)
t1)
1.36
1.44
1.36
1.42
10.71
9.38
2.64
2.42
5
3
3
.93
.78
.93
1.47
1.71
1.82
1.47
1.55
1.61
6.22
9.00
11.30
2.48
3.24
2.64
i/c
Quarterly series
Average duration of run
(ADR)
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
I
C
QCD
1.36
1.48
1.24
3.77
3.77
3.13
2.82
2.23
2.71
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries
Ann. rate,
2.32
bil. dol..
1.60 1.40
95. Balance, Fed. income and product account.
do
2.40
1.39 1.70
89. U.S. balance of payments
Mil. dol... 266.91 222.40 125.72
NOTE: For most series, measures are computed for a period
of at least 10 years. Figures for series 88 and 112 are based
on shorter periods.
•'-Not computed for series when MCD is "6" or more.
The measures in the above table are computed by an additive
method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative
data. Thus, "CI" is the average month-to-month (or quarter-
1.15
.82
1.77
2
1
2
.54
.82
.77
1.75
2.23
1.68
to-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is_ expressed in
the same unit of measure as the series itself. "C" is the same
for the cyclical component, which is a moving average of the
seasonally adjusted series. "I" is the same for the irregular
component,which is determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown
part 1.
above have the same meaning as in
69
Appendix D.-CURRENT ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (NOV. 1964 TO DEC 1965)
IS565
19£>4
Nov. Dec.
4. Temporary layoff, all industries
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
13. New business incorporations1
14. Liabilities of business failures
15 . Large business failures
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg.
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.2...
30. Nonagri. placements, all industries1.
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher inventories
55. Wholesale prices except farm products and foods
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg...
81 . Consumer prices
82. Federal cash payments to public1
83. Federal cash receipts from public1...
89.0
94.6
Jan.
Feb.
157.0 105.5
Mar. Apr. May
91.6
87.4
77.6
June July
Aug. Sept. Oct.
73.8 107.2 140.3 86.9
90.4
Nov. Dec.
89.9
94.6
104.5 137.4 144.9 107.2 92.7 91.8 82.3 83.8 105 3 83 9 77 4 88 6 104 5 137 4
82.4 101.8 105.2 91.9 115.6 107.3 103.1 105.8 102.6 95.0 93.1 94.9 82.4 101.8
107.5 77.7 105.6 104.1 100.2 104 7 95.7 106 6 100 7 104 7 96 7 95 8 107 6 77 7
94.8 86.0
101.1 97.8
101.4
92.5 B3.6
93.1
100.0
99.0
100.1
99.8
101.8
112.9 114.1 112.0 113.3 99.5 102.3 86.3 95.7 91.3 94.6 95.0
98.1 99.5 100.0 100.4 101.1 101.7 96.4 99.1 101.9 103.1 101.1
106.3
95.2
101.4
96.9
8o!i 76.9 93.1 104! 4 108.2 111.1 102.4 113.8 122.6 110.6 94.4
95.1 104.9 108.6 108.2 113.4 107.1 99.0
100.1 100.2 100.0 99.9
102.4 102.3 100.5 99.8
99.9 99.9 99.9
99.9
103.1
89.6 94.4 97.6
107.8 67.7 113.0 126.8
96.0 93.3
86.3 97.5 78.6
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total
91.5 91.8
92.8 88.6 96.3
92. Military contract awards in U.S
79.4 92.1 100.6 88.9 125.1
3
112 . Change in business loans
101.2 102.0 100.6 99.7 100.3
128. Japan, industrial production index... 99.2 102.1
94.0 102.1 108.1
94.8
83.9
88.6
90.2
100.0
100.1
197.9
143.1
171.9
99.6
99.8
103.4
115.2
72 8
98.9
100.0
83! 6
92.7 90.2
93.0
95.1
99 8
98.3
100.1
96 9
124.9
100.0
97.3
100.1
101.9
45.4
100 0
99.0
100.1
101 4
101.6
100 1
102.4
99.9
105 8
107.9
80.1 99.7
92.4 99.7
88.4 103 9
98.5 99.3
96.4 99.5
98.4
106.3
101 1
99.9
99.6
96.0
93.3
91.8
91.5
79 4 92 1
101.3 102 0
99.2 102.1
92.9
99.9 100.0 99.9 99.9 99.9
99.3 98.9 98.0 103.8 100.9
99.8 99.7 99.9 100.2 100.0
100.4 98.4 104.0 97.0 114.2
81.2 117.5 152.3 49.1 114.4
87.9
95.8
84.7
100.3
99.5
86.0
97.8
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
Factors apply to total series before month-to-month changes are computed.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
70
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
Percent change:
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough
Jan. 1920-July 1921
May 1923- July 1924
Oct . 1926-Nov . 1927
Aug. 1929-Mar. 1933
May 1937- June 1938
Feb . 1945-Oct . 1945 ^
Nov. 1948-Oct. 1949
July 1953-Aug . 19545
July 1957-Apr. 1958
May 1960-Feb . 1961
Median: 6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions
4 contractions since 1948.
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
47. Index
of industrial
production
50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q)1
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
51. Bank
debits ,
all
SMSA's
except
New York
52. Personal
income
54. Sales
of retail
stores
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-31.6
-10.4
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
(NA)
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
-6.2
0.0
0.0
-47.4
-18.5
+7.9
+2.3
2
+2.2
+25.4
+8.8
-7.8
-5.1
-3.4
-3.9
-1.9
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7
(NA)
-1.6
-2.2
-3.4
-1.4
-10.9
-3.4
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2
-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4
-4.0
-4.7
0.0
+0.2
+0.9
+9.9
0.0
-0.7
-1.6
-1.9
+2.2
+4.1
+3.5
+3.2
+1.7
-5.6
-16.0
-1.9
-2.8
-3.1
-2.0
-1.2
-6.5
-3.6
-16.0
-8.8
-2.1
-1.9
-2.8
-1.3
-3.6
-0.8
-2.4
+0.1
-1.8
-1.2
Percent change:
Expansions:
Reference trough to
reference peak
July
July
Nov.
Mar.
June
1921-May 1923
1924-Oct . 1926
1927-Aug. 1929
1933-May 1937
1938-Feb. 19454
Oct . 1945-Nov.
Oct . 1949-July
Aug . 1954-July
Apr. 1958-May
1948
19535
1957
1960
Median:6
All expans ions
Excluding wartime expansions
4 expansions since 1945...
43. Unemployment rate, total
Reference peak to reference trough
Change
in rate,
peak to
trough
Rate at
peak
2
2
4.0
3.2
2
1.9
3
0.0
11.2
2
2
Rate at
trough
2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
1.1
3.8
2.6
4.2
5.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
6.9
+3.4
3.5
7.2
+3.6
+3.4
3.9
4.0
7.6
7.2
3
43. Unemployment rate, total
Reference trough to reference peak
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
47. Index
of industrial
production
50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q)1
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
51. Bank
debits,
all
SMSA's
except
New York
52. Personal
income
54. Sales
of retail
stores
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+40.2
+45.9
+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3
(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)
+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131.7
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
+13.3
+8.8
+2.7
+85.6
+102.0
+17.2
+17.8
+8.9
+6.8
+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2
+3.3
+28.8
+11.8
+11.4
+34.9
+44.1
+22.4
+15.1
+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2
+28.5
+41.4
+22.1
+13.3
+59.7
+26.3
+20.0
+10.8
+0.3
-5.3
-1.9
-2.2
3.3
7.9
6.1
7.4
+17.5
+35.2
+12.3
+27.5
+33.8
+26.7
+19.9
-3.7
7.1
3.3
+13.0
+13.0
+26.6
+23.6
+12.1
+11.6
+20.9
+28.6
+24.4
+39.0
+21.3
+25.3
+14.7
+23.2
-2.6
-2.0
6.3
6.8
3.7
3.9
Change
in rate,
trough
to peak
2
-8.7
-3.6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
2
Rate at
trough
2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
Rate at
peak
2
3.2
1.9
3.2
11.2
1.1
2
2 3
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.2
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 54), the figure for
the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base.
For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51), the average of the 3
months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base.
The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is
the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
NA Not available.
•"•The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st quarter
1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
71
Appendix F.-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
Each month historical data are presented for series that either have not been shown here previously or have "been revised historically. The months of issue for series previously included in this appendix are given in the index.
Current data are shown
in tables 2 and 4. Data are seasonally adjusted.
Year
Jain.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Annual rate, mil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
...
...
...
...
26,10^
24,196
17,684
32,716
36,156
33,928
25,232
37,396
39,656
25,592
...
...
25,164
23,236
20,112
34,236
32,424
34,108
23,564
47,780
34,116
35,336
...
...
25,352
20,976
23,432
36,420
30 , 464
28,944
28,028
44,424
30,204
36,420
...
28,488
16,620
25,248
39,156
31,264
25,580
37,440
33,896
28,176
38,348
111. Gross retained earnings of nonfinancial corporations (Annual rate, mil. dol.)
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
I960
1961
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
72
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
21,920
22,672
21,364
28,548
28,776
30,424
26,916
34,112
36,028
32,304
;i
...
20,296
21,388
22,988
29,376
28,552
30,820
27 , 820
36,464
35,204
35,524
...
...
20,124
21,168
23,476
29,016
29,424
31,100
30,076
34,128
34,052
36,228
...
...
22,300
19,288
25,480
29,704
28,956
29,944
33,144
35,192
32,356
38,236
INDEX
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES
(Page numbers)
Charts
Tables
Appendixes
Series
nuiriber1
G
F
1
2
3
1
2
3
4
6
5
7
A
B
C
D
E
Page
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
9
10
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
24
24
24
24
24
24
25
25
10
11
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
11
11
12
12
12
13
13
13
13
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
25
25
25
25
26
26
26
26
26
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
29
14
14
13
14
11
14
14
11
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
27
26
26
27
24
27
27
25
30
31
32
37
38
10
14
14
14
12
8
8
8
8
8
24
27
27
27
25
40
41
42
43
45
46
47
49
15
15
15
15
15
15
16
16
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
29
50
51
5?
53
54
55
57
58
16
17
17
17
17
17
16
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
29
29
29
29
29
29
29
61
62
64
65
66
67
68
18
18
18
18
18
18
18
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
58
58
58
58
••
59
59
59
60
60
59
60
61
60
••
61
••
••
••
••
••
••
••
•-
62
62
62
62
62
62
63
63
63
63
63
63
62
62
63
63
••
--
62
62
63
63
••
••
62
63
••
'••
••
••
••
62
62
63
63
62
63
••
••
66
66
66
66
••
66
66
66
••
66
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
68
67
67
67
68
67
68
67
••
••
••
62
63
••
••
••
62
••
-•
••
••
••
..
••
••
66
63
-•
66
62
62
63
63
••
66
66
62
62
62
63
63
63
62
62
63
63
62
62
62
63
63
63
62
62
63
63
66
66
66
66
••
66
66
66
66
68
68
68
*66
*66
65
74
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Nov.
July
May
July
68
*66
*66
*66
71
73
64
66
Nov.
Aug.
Nov.
Mar.
Aug .
Oct.
June
Apr.
'64
'63
'63
'64
' 65
'65
' 64
'64
64
71
74
*66
*66
*66
65
74
June
Aug.
Sept.
Jan.
Dec.
Dec.
June
June
' 64
'65
'65
'64
'63
'63
' 64
' 65
*66
65
*66
*68
74
Oct.
June
Mar.
June
June
'63
' 64
' 64
' 63
' 65
72
68
72
72
*66
*66
70
71
Feb.
Dec.
Feb.
Feb.
Mar.
Feb.
Sept.
Aug.
'65
'64
'65
'65
'64
'64
'64
'65
71
71
72
72
72
*66
69
72
66
Aug.
Mar.
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.
'65
'65
'65
'65
'63
'64
'65
'64
-•
65
73
66
66
70
70
73
June
Oct.
June
June
Aug.
Aug.
Oct.
' 64
'65
' 64
'64
'64
'64
'65
70
70
70
70
70
70
70
69
69
68
67
67
69
67
67
67
69
67
67
67
70
70
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
68
68
67
67
67
67
67
68
68
67
67
67
67
68
68
Issue
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
70
70
Page
'64
Issue
.•
••
r
64
T
64
'63
' 63
' 64
' 65
••
••
*Appendix G.
1
See back cover for series titles and sources.
73
SERIES INDEX TO CHARTS, TABLES, AND APPENDIXES-Continued
(Page numbers)
Charts
Tables
Appendixes
Series
number1
F
1
2
3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
A
B
C
D
Page
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
22
19
19
19
20
22
22
22
22
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
19
19
19
20
22
19
22
22
20
19
110
Ill
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
20
20
20
20
21
21
21
21
21
121
122
123
125
126
127
128
23
23
23
23
23
23
23
.•
61
61
34
31
31
31
32
33
34
34
34
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
31
31
31
32
34
31
34
34
32
32
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
32
32
32
33
33
33
33
33
33
68
68
69
69
67
67
67
67
67
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
.•
Dl, 1 mo...
9 mo...
D5
D6, 1 mo. . .
9 mo. . .
Dll
D19, 1 mo..
9 mo.. ••
D23, 1 mo..
9 mo..
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
D34
D35
D36
D41, 1 mo..
6 mo. .
D47, 1 mo.. ••
6 mo. .
D48
D54, 1 mo..
9 mo..
D58, 1 mo. . ••
6 mo. .
D61
39
41
41
40
40
40
40
41
40
40
40
40
41
1
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
••
••
••
42
42
43
42
42
42
43
43
43
43
••
.•
••
•-
43
45
45
44
44
44
44
45
44
44
44
44
45
••
46-7
46-7
56
46-9
46-9
55
55
48-9
48-9
50-3
50-3
52-3
52-3
48-51
48-51
52-5
52-5
See back cover for series titles and sources.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
74
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
62
62
63
63
-•
••
••
••
G
E
Issue
68
67
67
69
69
68
68
69
69
70
70
70
70
73
73
73
73
69
69
69
74
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug .
Aug.
Sept.
Sept.
Sept.
July
'64
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ORDER FORM
Mail order form with payment to:
REQUEST FOR TIME SERIES AND
BUSINESS CYCLE ANALYSIS AIDS
Mr. Julius Shiskin
Chief Economic Statistician
Bureau of the Census
Washington, D.C.
20233
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Estimating Trading-Day Variation
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TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. "M" indicates monthly series "Q" indicates
quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "EOM" or "EOQ". "EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates
data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*)
were included in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30NBERLEADINGINDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).—Department Of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M).—Department
of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).-ChicagO Purchasing
Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials (M).-National Association
of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*38. Index of net business formation (M).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
5. Average weekly inifia! claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
15 NBER R O U G H L Y C O I N C I D E N T I N D I C A T O R S
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M).--Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
Ml.
*7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
(M).-F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census, and F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q)—National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted
and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M).~Department Of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M).—Departm ent of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).-National Industrial Conference
Board
*47. Index of industrial production (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*U Current liabilities of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and ovcr(M).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
*16, Corporate profits after taxes (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of labor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices of manufactured goods index to index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of output (M).--Department of Commerce,
O f f i c e of Business Economics; Department of Labor,Bureau of Labor Statistics;and
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).-Federal
Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).-Standard and Poor's Corporation; no
seasonal adjustment
*49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
*50* Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q) 0 --Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51. Bank debits, all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York(224 SMSA's)
(M)o--Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income (M).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics
Sales of retail stores (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
Index of wholesale prices, all commodities other than farm products and foods (M).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).-Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of
Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies (M).—
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
*21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarm,after valuation adjustment (GNP
component) (Q).-Department of Commerce, O f f i c e of Business Economics
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and salaries and supplements
to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production,manufacturing(M).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and the Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q).—
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all manufacturing industries (EOM).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M).—Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*66. Consumer installment debt (EOM).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
FRS seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure
26. Buying policy-production materials,percent reporting commitments60 days or longer
(M).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (EOQ).--Board of Governors Of
the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees in corporate enterprises to value of corporate product in
1958 dollars) (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics National Income Division
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
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U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
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WASHINGTON, D.C. 20402
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
280THERSELECTEDU.S.SERIES
81. Index of consumer prices(M).«Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
82. Federal cash payments to the public (M).-Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts,
and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget; seasonal adjustment
by the Bureau of the Census
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (Q, M).--Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget; seasonal ad
justment by the Bureau of the Census
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
113. Net change in consumer installment debt(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).--Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).--First National City Bank of
New York and Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
84. Federal.cash surplus or deficit (Q, M).-Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts,
and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget; seasonal adjustment
by the Bureau of the Census
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The Bond Buyer; no seasonal adjustment
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus currency) (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages(M).-Federal Housing Administration; no
seasonal adjustment
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).--Department Of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87)(M).«Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M).-Department of Defense, Fiscal
Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
7 INTERNATIONAL C O M P A R I S O N S
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index
of industrial production (M).-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).-Central Statistical Office (London)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).-DeutSChe Bundesbank (Frankfurt)
126. France, index of industrial production (M).-Statistical Office (Paris)
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M).--Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis
Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
127. Italy, index of industrial production(M).-Organization for Economi'c Cooperation and
Development
92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M).-Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo); seasonal adjustment by compiler and Bureau of the Census
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M).--Board Of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
... United States, index of industrial production (M).-See Series 47.
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M).-F. W. Dodge Corporation
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income and product account (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
9b. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ).-National Industrial Conference Board; component industries are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally adjusted total
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits and currency)and commercial bank time deposits (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
DIFFUSIONINDEXES
W
The D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the same number and are obtained from the same
sources. See sources a b o v e f o r D l , 05,06,011, D19,D23, D41, D47, Ub4,and DG1. Sources
for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City Bank of New York; no seasonal adjustmentofseries components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted
by National Bureau of Economic Research.lnc.
D35. Net soles, total manufactures(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
99. New orders, defense products (M).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Q).-Board Of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
D48. Freight carloadings(Q).-Association of American Railroads; no seasonal adjustment
111. Gross retained earnings of nonfinancial corporations (Q).—Board Of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
D58. Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
@FedFRASER