Full text of Business Conditions Digest : November 1962
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NOVEMBER 1962
Business
Cycle
Developments
DATA THROUGH OCTOBER
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Business
Cycle
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Luther H. Hodges, Secretary
Developments
NOVEMBER 1962
DATA THROUGH OCTOBER
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
Richard M. Scammon, Director
A. ROSS ECKLER, Deputy Director
HOWARD C. GRIEVES, Assistant Director
CONRAD TAEUBER, Assistant Director
MORRIS H. HANSEN, Assistant Director for Research and Development
CHARLES B. LAWRENCE, Jr., Assistant Director for Operations
WALTER L KEHRES, Assistant Director for Administration
CALVERT L DEDRICK, Chief, International Statistical Programs Office
CONRAD SHAMEL, Acting Public Information Officer
Office of the Chief Economic Statistician
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief
Series ESI No. 62-11
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CONTENTS
Page
Important Features and Changes for This Issue
ii
Introduction
Organization and Content of the Report
Descriptions and Procedures
How to Read the Time Series Charts
1
1
1
4
Basic Data
Chart 1.—Business Cycle Series: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B. NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
C . NBER Lagging Indicators
D. Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
E . International Comparisons of Industrial Production
v. .
Table 1.—Basic Data for Business Cycle Series: January 1959 to Present
5
10
13
14
17
19
Analytical Measures
Table 2.—Recent Changes for Business Cycle Series
Table 3.—Distribution of Highs in Business Cycle Indicators During Recent Months Compared
With Periods Around Previous Business Cycle Peaks
Chart 2.—Diffusion Indexes: 1948 to Present:
A. NBER Leading Indicators
B . NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Chart 3 . —Diffusion Indexes—Actual and Anticipated: 1948 to Present
Table 4.—Diffusion Indexes (Percent Rising) for 12 Major Economic Activities: January 1959
to Present
Table 5.—Diffusion Indexes, Actual and Anticipated, for 4 Manufacturing Activities: January
1959 to Present
Table 6.—Direction of Change in Series Components Over Specified Time Spans and Percent of
Series Rising: January I960 to Present:
A. ( D l ) Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing
B. (D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries
C. (D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
D. (D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices
E. (D5) Average Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs. .....
F. (D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments
G. (D47) Index of Industrial Production
H. (D54) Sales of Retail Stores
29
31
32
33
34
35
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
Cyclical Patterns
Chart 4. —Comparisons of Reference Cycle Patterns
Chart 5. —Comparisons of Specific Cycle Patterns
Table 7.—Percent of Reference Peak Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the
Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 8.—Percent Change From Reference Trough Levels as Measured at Designated Months
After the Reference Trough Dates in the 9 Most Recent Expansions
Table 9.—Percent of Specific Peak Levels and Percent Change from Specific Trough
Levels as Measured at Designated Months After the Specific Trough Dates in the 9 Most
Recent Expansions
47
52
56
57
58
Appendixes
Appendix A.—Business Cycle Reference Dates and Duration of Expansions and Contractions in
the United States: 1854 to 1961
Appendix B. — Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators
Appendix C.—Average Percentage Changes and Related Measures for 53 Monthly and 10
Quarterly Business Cycle Series
Appendix D.—Current Seasonal Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series Adjusted by
Bureau of the Census or NBER (November 1961 to December 1962)
Appendix F.—Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and Expansion Periods of
Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington 25, D.C. -
60
61
62
65
66
Price 40 cents
IMPORTANT FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect the
change from one stage of the business cycle to another, to show new findings of
business cycle research and newly available economic series, or to emphasize
the activity of a particular series or series group. Such changes may involve
additions or deletions of series used, changes in placement in relation to other
series, changes in components of indexes, etc. These changes will be listed in
this section each month. The changes made in this issue are as follows:
1. Series 17 and 62 have been recomputed to include revision of the component, Federal Reserve index of industrial production, and to bring seasonal
adjustments up to date. In making the seasonal adjustments, the approach was
to adjust ratios (rather than components), thus providing seasonal factors for
these series (see appendix D) . The Census Method II, X-9 technique was used.
2.
The following series have been recomputed to the 1957-59=100 base:
Series 17.—Price per unit of labor cost index
Series 23.—Index of industrial materials prices
Series 47.—Index of industrial production
Series 62.—Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing
Series 63.—Index of labor cost per unit of output, total GNP
3. Several specific peak and trough dates have been revised (see appendix
B ) . Revisions affect series 9, 17, 41, 47, 52, 53, and 54.
4. The above revisions have resulted in changes in appendix C for series
17, 47, and 62; in appendix D for series 17 and 62; and in appendix F for series
47, 52, and 54. Appendix F has also been revised for series 49 and 50 to reflect
earlier revisions.
BACKGROUND MATERIALS
Experimental work for this report was carried out in collaboration with the
National Bureau of Economic Research which is responsible for much of the early research in this field.
The book, "Signals of Recession and Recovery, " contains an explanation of research findings helpful in interpreting current cyclical trends, a more
detailed description of the indicators and measures used, and additional historical data.
This book was issued as Occasional Paper 77 of the National Bureau of Economic Research, 261 Madison Avenue, New York 16, N . Y . ( 2 0 7 pages, price $ 3 ) . Other references, both to historical studies and current interpretations of the indicators, appear
in this book.
11
Business Cycle Developments
INTRODUCTION
This report has been prepared to bring together
many of the available economic indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation by
specialists in business cycle analysis. The presentation and classification .of series in this report
follows the business indicators approach. The classification of series and the business cycle turning
dates are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research (NBER) which, in recent
years, has been the leader in this field of investigation. However, this publication is not to be taken
as implying acceptance or endorsement by the
Bureau of the Census or any other government
agency of any particular approach to business cycle
analysis. It is intended only to supplement other
reports of the Department of Commerce that provide data for analyzing current business conditions.
The unique features are the arrangement of data
according to their usual timing relations during the
course of the business cycle and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical
comparisons that help in evaluating the current
stage of the business cycle.
The chief merits of this report are the speed
with which the data for indicators are collected,
assembled, and published and the arrangement of
the series for business cycle studies. Electronic
computers are used for many of the computations,
thus making early publication possible. Publication is scheduled for around the 20th of the month
following the month of data.
About 70 principal indicators and over 300 components are used for the different measures shown.
The movements of the series are shown against the
background of the expansions and contractions of
the general business cycle so that "leads" and
"lags" can be readily detected and unusual cyclical
developments spotted. The exact number of series
included for the total and important classes of
series may vary from month to month because of
additions of new series and revisions in the composition of indexes. Almost all of the basic data
are available in published reports. A complete list
of the series and the sources of data is shown on
the back cover of this report. All the data shown
are seasonally adjusted where seasonal variations
appear to exist.
ORGANIZATION AND CONTENT OF THE REPORT
Three types of data are shown in this report.
They are as follows:
Basic data (chart 1 and table 1). —Over 50 business cycle indicators and 20 additional series with
business cycle significance are included. Together
they provide a broad view of current and prospective business cycle fluctuations in the economy as
well as the basis for making an economic interpretation of these fluctuations.
Analytical measures (charts 2-3 and tables 2-6).—
These are measures which aid in forming a judgment of ( 1 ) the magnitude of current changes compared to previous changes, (2) the imminence of a
turning point in the business cycle, and (,3) the extent of current changes in different parts of the
economy. They also aid in pointing to developments
in particular industries and places.
Cyclical patterns (charts 4-5 and tables 7-9).—
The current cyclical change is compared with
changes at corresponding stages of earlier cycles.
These comparisons are made in different ways depending upon the phase of the business cycle.
In addition to the data shown as part of the regular report, certain appendix materials are presented. These materials include historical data,
key information, and adjustment factors.
DESCRIPTIONS AND PROCEDURES
Business Cycle Series
The three major groups of series are those with
a fairly consistent timing relation to the business
cycle. They are grouped, in accordance with the
NBER classification, as "leading," "roughly coincident," or "lagging" indicators. Additional series
are also included for a more complete coverage of
the national economy. The series are described as
follows:
NBER Leading Indicators.—Around 30 series
usually reach peaks or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity as measured by the
roughly coincident series (see below). For this
reason, they are designated as "leading" series.
One group of these series pertains to activities in
the labor market, another to orders and contracts,
and so on.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators.—About 15
series are direct measures of aggregate economic
activity or move roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural employment, industrial production or retail sales. For this reason they are
referred to as "roughly coincident" series.
NBER Lagging Indicators.—Some series, such
as new plant and equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, usually have reached turning points after they were reached in aggregate
economic activity, and for this reason, they are
designated as "lagging" series.
Other series.—About 20 additional U.S. series
with business cycle significance are also shown.
Some of these series, such as change in money supply, merchandise trade balance, and cash surplus
or deficit, represent important factors in the economy, but they have not qualified as indicators for
various reasons, such as irregularity in timing.
Finally, industrial production indexes for several
countries which have important trade relations with
the United States are presented.
1
Descriptions and Procedures
Seasonal Adjustments
Official seasonally adjusted data are used in this
report wherever they are available. However, for
the special purposes of business cycle studies, a
number of series that are not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis in this report. These series
are as follows:
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
industries
5. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance, State programs
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
13. Number of new business incorporations
14. Current liabilities of business failures
15. Number of business failures with liabilities
of $100,000 and over
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
all manufacturing^ corporations
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders,
durable goods industries
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total manufacturing
81. Index to consumer prices
82. Federal cash payments to the public
83. Federal cash receipts from the public
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
91. Defense Department obligations, total
92. Military prime contract awards to U . S .
business firms
128. Japan, index of industrial production
Seasonal adjustments for these series were developed by either the Bureau of the Census or the
NBER. The adjustment factors used are shown in
the appendix table D. Seasonally adjusted data
prepared by the collecting agency will be substituted
for the series mentioned above whenever they are
published.
Designation of Business Cycle Turning Points
The historical business cycle turning points are
those designated by the NBER. They mark the approximate date when aggregate economic activity
reached its cyclical higher low levels. As a matter
of general practice, a business cycle turning point
will not be designated until at least 6 months after
it has occurred.
Charts
Time series line charts (charts 1-3) are used to
show the cyclical timing and pattern of each series.
Since various ratio and arithmetic scales are used,
rates of change are not comparable except for those
series having the same scale. See the diagram,
page 4, for additional help in using the charts.
Shaded areas on the charts indicate periods of
business cycle contraction between reference dates
for peaks ("P"—beginnings of shaded areas) and
troughs ( " T M — ends of shaded areas). The shading
for a recession period will be entered only after a
trough has been designated.
Analytical Measures of Current Change
Four kinds of analytical measures are presented-r—rates of change, diffusion indexes, timing
distributions, and direction-of-change tables. These
measures aid in forming a judgment of the magnitude of current changes compared to previous
changes, the imminence of a turning point in the
business cycle, and the extent of current changes
in different parts of the economy. They also point
to developments in particular industries and places.
Rates of change.— There is considerable interest
in the rate of acceleration during expansions and
the rate of retardation during recessions. For this
reason, rates of change for the principal monthly
and quarterly business cycle series are included in
table 2 of this report. Rates of change are helpful
in judging and appraising trends of acceleration or
retardation in a current business cycle phase, despite the fact that the erratic nature of month-tomonth rates of change often makes it difficult to
determine the significance of a change until some
months after it has occurred. For series, such as
unemployment and layoffs, which usually move
down during expansions and up during recessions,
the changes are inverted so that, in table 2, rises
are shown as declines and declines as rises.
Diffusion indexes.—Diffusion indexes are simple
summary measures of groups of economic series.
They express, for a given group, the percent of the
series which has risen over given intervals of time.
Their turning points tend to lead the turning points
of the aggregate and they measure how widespread
a business change is. They vary between the limits
of 100 (all components rising) and zero (all components falling). Widespread increases are often
associated with rapid growth in aggregate activity,
and widespread declines with sharp reductions.
The diffusion indexes in this report are grouped
according to the timing classification of the NBER.
For monthly series, two comparison intervals
are used: 1-month intervals (January-February,
February-March, etc.) and 3-month intervals January-April, February-May, e t c . ) .
The indexes
based on 1-month intervals are more "current" but
they are also more irregular than the 3-^month indexes (see chart 2). Quarterly series are compared
over 1-quarter intervals and 4-quarter intervals.
Series numbers preceded by the letter "D"
designate diffusion indexes. When one of these
numbers corresponds to a basic indicator series
number, it means that the diffusion index has been
computed from components of the indicator series;
for example, the diffusion index numbered "D6" is
computed from components of series number 6.
Diffusion indexes not computed from basic series
components are assigned new numbers.
This report includes 29 diffusion indexes based
on 16 indicator series (see tables 4 and 5 ) . Seventeen of these indexes are computed by the Bureau
of the Census utilizing nearly 300 components of 9
indicators ( D l , D5, D6, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54,
Descriptions and Procedures
a n d D 5 8 ) . Indexes for 8 of these indicators show
comparisons for components over both 3-month and
1-month spans while, for 1 indicator (D58), comparisons are over 1-month spans only. The 12 other
diffusion indexes are based on 7 indicators closely
related to the above 9 indicators.
They include two
indexes on capital appropriations ( 6 0 2 companies
and 15 industries)—NBER indexes based on data
from the National Industrial Conference Board; the
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association index based
on monthly reports of changes in profits ( 2 0 0 companies); the First National City Bank of New York
index based on quarterly profit reports ( 7 0 0 companies); and 8 NBER diffusion indexes—actual and
anticipated—for the following: Manufacturers' sales
(800 companies) and new orders (400 companies),
based on data from Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; carloadings (19 commodity groups), based on data
from the Association of American Railroads; and
new plant and equipment expenditures (16 indust r i e s ) , based on data from the Office of Business
Economics and the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Diffusion indexes that are based on anticipations
show what proportion of business enterprises (or
industries) are forecasting a rise in activity. Comparisons with indexes based on actual changes show
whether there is a generally optimistic bias or a
lag in recognition of actual developments.
Diffusion indexes constructed on the basis of
current data are often highly irregular and require
careful judgment in their use and interpretation.
Timing distributions. —Distributions of current
"highs" appear to be helpful in appraising the evidence f o r a prospective business cycle turning point.
Each month a timing distribution is constructed
which shows the number of series reaching high
values during each month of the expansion. The
timing distribution is summarized by showing the
number of series reaching new highs and the percent
currently high for each of several recent months
(see table 3 ) . Similar distributions of "lows "will
be prepared during contractions .
To provide historical perspective for interpreting
the distribution of current highs, such distributions
are also shown for leading and coincident series as
they appear 3 months and 6 months before the peak
of each of the earlier post-World War II expansions
and at their peaks .
To compile timing distributions for the current
cyclical phase, the data for the principal business
cycle indicators are scanned each month. During a
business cycle expansion, the high value for each
series is recorded.
(For inverted series, that is
series with negative conformity to the business
cycle, low values are taken during expansions and
high values during contractions .)
If the values for
2 or more months are equal, the latest date is taken
as the high month. In selecting these values, erratic
values are disregarded, although it is, of course,
difficult to identify an erratic value, particularly for
the current month.
The letter "H" is used in the basic data table
(table l) to identify and highlight the current high
values during the expansion, and the letter "L" to
identify the low values preceding the current highs.
The highs designated during the current cyclical
phase will not necessarily be the specific cycle
peaks. Thus, as new high levels are reached during
the expansion, the current highs will be moved
ahead.
On the other hand, lows preceding current
highs are usually specific cycle troughs. Comparisons of the current timing distributions with those
for periods around earlier business cycle troughs
and peaks are helpful for appraising the evidence of
a prospective business cycle turning point.
Interpretations of timing distributions must be
made in light of the fact that a contraction following
a high value reached several months ago may be
the result of an erratic fluctuation and that a new
high may be reached in some future month.
In
short,, when the percent currently high falls below
50 percent for both the leading and roughly coinerdent series, this does not necessarily signify that
a business cycle peak has occurred. It may do so,
but it may also simply reflect a short reversal in
the upward movement.
Direction-of-change tables.—Direction-of-change
tables show directions of change (" + " for rising,
"o" for unchanged, and "-" for falling) in the components used for the diffusion indexes. These tables
provide a convenient view of changing business conditions and are helpful in making an economic interpretation of the movements in the more highly
aggregated statistical measures. That is, they show
which economic activities went up, which went
down, and how long such movements have persisted.
They also help to show how a recession or recovery
spreads from one sector of the economy to another.
Comparisons of Cyclical Patterns
In forming a judgment about the current intensity
and probable ultimate character of a cyclical fluctuation, some economists find it helpful to compare
the behavior of the indicator series and diffusion
indexes in the current business cycle phase with
their behavior during the corresponding phase of
previous business cycles. These comparisons are
made in different ways depending upon the phase of
the business cycle.
Contractions are compared by computing changes
over the span from the most recent business cycle
peak to the current month and over equal spans from
previous reference peaks. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes from r e f e r ence peak levels and from reference peak dates.
Expansions may be compared by measuring
changes from the immediately preceding peak levels. In this report the current expansion is related
to the May I960 reference peak. For earlier expansions, percentage changes are also computed from
their respective reference peaks to dates which are
the same number of months beyond the succeeding
reference troughs as the current expansion is beyond its reference trough. This type of comparison
is designated as representing changes computed
from reference peak levels and from reference
trough dates. Although the spans from reference
trough dates are the same for each expansion, the
Descriptions and Procedures
spans from the preceding peak dates are different,
depending on the length of the contractions. This
type of comparison answers the question whether,
and by how much, the current level of activity exceeds or falls short of the level at the preceding
business cycle peak, a given number of months after
the recovery began, and how the current situation
compares in this respect with earlier recoveries.
Expansions also may be compared by computing
changes from reference trough levels and from
reference trough dates . This type of comparison
measures the extent of the rise from the trough
level so many months after the upswing began.
In addition to comparing cyclical fluctuations on
the basis of reference dates (which are the same
for all series) , comparisons are made on the basis
of specific peak and trough dates identified for each
series . For example, the specific peak in retail
sales corresponding to the May I960 reference peak
is April I960; the specific peak in stock prices is
July 1959.
Recent performance in several individual indicators is compared graphically with that in earlier
business cycles. In making graphic comparisons,
the reference peak or trough levels are set equal to
100, and the reference peak or trough dates are
alined depending on the phase of the business cycle.
In order to make historical comparisons, it is'
frequently necessary to use data for a closely
related series for cycles prior to the initial date
covered bythe series used currently. Such comparisons are, therefore, to be considered only approximate. Nearly all series have undergone change in
definition, coverage, or estimation procedure since
1919. The principal cases of this sort are as follows:
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started
(prior to 1939: Residential building contracts, floor space)
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (prior to 1929: Employment in
manufacturing)
52. Personal income (prior to 1929: Quarterly
data as published by Barger and Klein)
54. Sales of retail stores (prior to 1935: Department store sales)
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (prior to 1946: Production worker wage cost per unit. Supplements to wages and salaries, which are a
part of total labor cost, are not included) .
HOW TO READ THE TIME SERIES CHARTS (CHARTS 1-3)
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning
of Recession (shaded areas)
as designated by NBER
Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning
of Expansion (white areas)
as designated by NBER
Arabic numerals indicate latest
month for which data are plotted
Indicates a break in continuity—
e.g., data not available, change in
sample reported, change in base used
for computations, etc.
See back cover for complete
titles and sources of series
Broken line indicates quarterly data
Roman numerals indicate latest
quarter for which data are plotted
Various ratio and arithmetic scales
are used to highlight the cyclical
timing and patterns for each series;
where different scales are used, the
rates of change are not comparable
from series to series. "Scale A" is
an arithmetic scale; "scale L-1" is
a semi logarithm scale with 1 cycle;
"scale L-2", a semi logarithm scale
with 2 cycles, etc.
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
I \\
Sensitive employment and unemployment indicators
(May) (F«b.)
P
T
l.-jl
42
1. Av. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (hrs.)
41
^
40 i
3
39
38
2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)
5.0
/Vs
f
MX
30. Nonagr. placements, all indus. (thous.)
//N^V,
>. /
<
4.0 i
3.0
^v/
6°%
500 j
4005
WV'
3. Layoff rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)-in verted
1
2
3
4. Temp, layoff, all indus. (thous.)-inverted
75
100
°?
125 •*
150 §
175
200
225
250
5. Av. weekly initial claims, State unempi.
insur. (thous.)--inverted
200
2
300.*
§
400
500
1948
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
See "Mow to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.
Basic Data
CHART 1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
P
T_
T
6. New orders, dur. goods indus
24. New orders, mach. and equip. Indus, (bil. dol.)
9. Constr. contracts, com. and indus. (mil. sq. ft. floor area)
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bil. dol.)
11. New capital appropriations, mfg. (bil. dol.)—Qj
27. Buying policy, capital expend, (percent reporting
commitments 6 mo. or longer)
?!
7. Private nonfarm housing starts (mil.)
29. New bldg. permits, private housing unitst
(index: 1957-59=100)
1948 1949
1950
1951 1952
1953 1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.
1955
1956
1957 1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
1963
Basic Data
CHART 1 |^_
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
A
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
New businesses and business failures
12. Change, no. of businesses (thous.)
13. New bus. incorporations (thous.)
14. Liab. of bus. failures (mil. do I.)--inverted.
15. Large bus. failures (no. per wk.)-- inverted
..I..I..I.J JLkJt. ..I..!..!.. ..I..!..!.. ..I..!..!.. ..L.L&iv: JL&*.\.. ..I..L.I.. ..I..!..!.. ..l..r*J*v:»JL.I..I.. ..I..I..I.. ..I.,
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952 1953 1954 1955
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.
1956 1957 1958
1959 1960
1961 1962 1963
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
T
Profits and stock prices I
35
30 ^
25 «
20 1
16. Corporate profits, after taxes (bil. dol.)-Q
15
120
17. Ratio, price to "nit labor cost, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)
110 ^
100 §
90
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg. (cents)-C
12
10
8
V-
3
|
6
20
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate,
all industries (percent)
V
3
|
8
80
70
60
50 3
^v
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
!6
12
40
30
20
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
JJ
8
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
P
T
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
J_
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T_
T
+ 15
I Inventory investment; buying policy and sensitive
4-10
21. Change in bus. inventories, all indus. (bil. dol
<
+
5
1
0
-5
31. Change in book value, mfg.
and trade inventories (bil. dol.)
+ 12
6
+
o
<
I
-6
-12
20. Change in book value, mfrs. inventories of purch
+ 4
+
2
<
° 1
-2
-4
26. Buying policy, prod. mtls. (percent reporting
commitments 60 days or longer)
75
M
32. Vendor performance (percent reporting slower deliveries)
I
25
75
M
i
25
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. (bil. dol.)
+ 3
+ 2 «
+ 1 "8
0
-1
160
140
120 -
23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1957-59=100)
100 1
80
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953 1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
1955 1956
1957 1958
1959
1960
1961 1962 1963
10
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
P
T
T
60
Employment ana unemployment
41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (mil.)
55 ^
50
65
42. Total nonagr. employment (mil.)
60 2
55*
50
3.0
4.0
43. Unemployment rate (percent)-inverted
5.0
6.0
i
7.0
8.0
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(percent) - i nverted
2.0
3.0
4.0 <
5.0 §
6.0
7.0
45. Av. weekly insured unempl. (percent)—inverted
r-
3.0
4.0
5.0 <
6.0 §
7.0
8.0
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957 = 100)
120
100 cr>
80 |
60
1948 1949
1950
1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.
1959 1960
1961 1962
1963
15
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TQ PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
T
120
100
82. Fed. cash payments to public (bit. dol.)
Federal budget and military obligations
80
120
100
83. Fed. cash receipts from public (bil. dol.)
80
60
84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit (bil. dol.)
+ 10
95. Surplus or deficit,
Fed. Income and prod
acct. (bil. dol.)-Q
-10
+ 10
-10
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
90. Defense Dept. oblig., procurement (bil. dol.) Ji
91. Defense Dept. oblig., total (bil. dol.)
5.0
"
I
3.0
2.0
92. Military contract awards in U.S. (bil. dol.)
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.0 §
.5
In .,!,,!..I.. ..I..I..I.. ..l..lut«illl..i..l.. nlnlnln ..|.AA« »i. .Lin ..1..1..I.. ..I..I..1.
1948 1949 1950 1951
1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.
Solid lines indicate 3-month average; latest data for 3-month moving average plotted 1 month behind seasonally adjusted data.
1962
1963
Basic Data
16
CHART 1
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
D k
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
P
T
T
Financial series |
85. Change in money supply (percent)
93. Free reserves (bil. dol.)
81. Consumer prices (index: 1957-59=100)
94. Construction contracts, value (index: 1957-59=100)
—I
^..^!..!..!..!..!..!.!^
1948 1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
40
11
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
130
Production
120
47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)
•
A/
100
90
500
475-.
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (bil doL)-Q
450
i
425 5
400
600
550
49. GNP in current dollars (bil. dol.)-Q
500 ^
450
400
600
550
500
57. Final sales (bil. dol.)-Q
450
X
400 2
350
300
x
250
»!,.!,, in nl.,1.,1,,
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
12
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
CHART 1
B
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
2.2
Income and trade
2.0 -
51. Bank debits outside NYC (tril. dol.)
«i
1.6
450
425
4002
-S
375 8
350
325
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., constr. (bil. dol.)
120
115
110
105 ^
100 ^
95 |
90
85
80
Sales of retail stores (bil. dol.)
20
19
18 -
17
16
15
14
55. Wholesale prices exc. farm prod, and foods
(index: 1957-59=100)
110
100
Wholesale prices
90
-180
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.
1"
Basic Data
21
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by (H3 ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
1959
January
February
March
April.
May
July
August
September
October
1960
January
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
13. Number
of new business incorporations
(Number)
14 . Current 15. Business 16. Corpoliabilities failures
rate profits
of business with liabil- after taxes
ities of
failures
$100,000 and
over
(Mil. dol.)
17. Price
per unit of
labor cost
index
(Number per (Ann. rate,
week)
bil. dol.) (1957-59=100)
Revised1
101.2
29
102.0
27
24.1
102.2
25
103.6
26
103.9
26.6
27
103.0
22
101.9
27
100.9
32
23.9
101.0
25
100.8
24
100.0
29
23.3
102.0
30
16,346
16,255
16,548
16,604
16,296
15,204
15,658
15,813
15,728
15,383
15,695
15,959
68.75
53.26
60o23
63.08
48.96
51.25
54.47
54.50
61.51
55.98
56.01
64.04
16,561
15,274
15,233
15,280
15,176
15,630
15,828
15,114
15,112
15,240
14,281
14,167
52.88
57.60
61.57
63.71
76.52
©131.31
71.04
94.66
86.02
85.98
80.44
82.78
29
27
30
30
32
36
38
36
43
©43
37
41
©13,492
14,601
14,658
15,327
15,225
15,342
15,539
15,213
15,419
[Hi 16, 286
16,149
15,818
80.16
84.45
111.36
79.07
84.09
87.05
80.52
99.41
124.11
74.04
112.36
068.94
38
42
40
39
41
41
41
35
40
43
39
38
15,124
15,809
15,713
15,402
15,260
14,904
15,247
15,104
15,249
(NA)
104.72
87.36
71.20
111.67
95.62
91.89
107.22
142.00
102.08
(NA)
103.6
102.9
102.7
102.1
101.5
101.1
101.5
100.7
100.8
101.0
101.2
100.1
24.9
23.5
21.9
21.7
18. Profits
(before taxes ) per dol.
sales, all
mfg. corporations
22. Ratio,
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
industries
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks*
(Cents)
( Percent)
(1941-43*10)
8.9
10.4
9.8
11.1
8.4
10.0
8.1
9.6
8.8
10.0
8.0
9.4
7.8
8.9
7.3
8.8
55.62
54.77
56»15
57.10
57o96
57.46
59.74
59.40
57.05
57.00
57.23
59.06
58.03
55.78
55.02
55.73
55.22
57.26
55.84
56.51
54.81
©53.73
55.47
56o80
1961
February.
March
April
Jfey
July
August
September
November
©20.3
22.9
23.7
©26.3
©99.6
99.9
99.8
100.9
101.1
101.7
102.3
103.4
103.6
103.2
102.9
103.2
©6.6
©8.2
7.6
9.1
7.9
9.3
08.7
010. 0
59.72
62.17
64.12
65.83
66.50
65.62
65.44
67.79
67.26
68.00
71.08
071.74
1962
April
May
June
julv
September
October
37
032
37
38
37
42
37
43
41
48
25.6
26.1
(NA)
102.2
102.4
102.8
101.9
102.2
102.3
103.4
102.0
0104.5
p!03.9
1
Revised "See Important Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
November 19, 1962.
8.1
9.5
8.2
9.6
(NA)
(NA)
69.07
70.22
70.29
68.05
62.99
55.63
56.97
58.52
58.00
56.17
2
60.16
Basic Data
22
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (•*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by El ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
1959
21. Change in
bus . inventories, farm and
nonfarm, after
valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
+6.4
March.
April
May
July
August
September
October
+11.5
+1.1
+7.1
31. Change in
book value of
manufacturing
and trade inventories,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
20. Change in
book value of
mf rs . ' inventories,
purchased
materials
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol. )
26. Buying policy, production
matls., percent
reporting commitments 60
days or longer*
( Percent
reporting)
32. Vendor
performance,
percent
reporting
slower
deliveries*
( Percent
reporting)
25. Change in
manufacturers '
unfilled orders, durable
goods industries
(Bil. dol.)
23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices*
(1957-59=100)
Revised1
+3.5
+6.2
+6.6
+14.1
+8.7
+11.4
+6.4
-0.2
-5.1
+0.6
-2.5
+12.3
+2.4
+2o4
+3.3
+3.5
+4.1
+6.1
+0.3
-2.5
-5.2
-3.2
+0.5
+2.4
60
66
65
68
71
66
67
64
72
66
66
67
58
62
62
62
62
62
60
62
64
64
56
50
+0.88
+1.03
+0.86
+0.47
-0.17
+OolO
-0.13
+0.02
+0.45
+0.64
-0.05
-0.12
99.6
99.5
101.1
102.1
102.8
103.2
103.2
103.7
105.1
105.8
105.9
104.8
+12.8
+11.7
+11.4
+3.2
+8.5
+2.3
-1.5
+0.4
-0.6
-*2.4
-2.1
-6.2
+4.6
+1.5
+0.8
+1.0
+0.4
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-3.2
-2.4
©-3.4
-0.4
64
64
56
61
55
57
54
50
49
50
50
©48
44
30
©27
28
32
34
36
40
41
39
38
38
-0.52
-0.78
-0.77
-0.68
-0.19
-0.22
-0.24
-0.17
-0.13
©-0.77
-0.50
-0.43
105.7
104.3
102.4
103.8
104.1
102.7
101.6
102.1
101.2
99.7
98.5
©96.8
-5.8
-3.2
©-8.7
+4-1
+0.7
+0.4
+4.5
+1.8
E+7.8
+4.2
+6.1
+5.0
-0.3
-1.0
+0.1
-0.1
+0.8
-2.2
+1.1
+0.2
+3.0
+0.5
+0.9
+1.3
51
49
50
57
54
56
56
55
57
59
59
54
38
40
40
47
48
48
49
52
55
55
51
53
+0.01
-0.02
-0.11
+0.42
+0.23
+0.07
+0.49
+0.22
-0.03
+0.33
+0.25
+0.28
97.3
99.3
103.1
104.1
0104.4
101.0
101.7
102.9
102.3
98.9
101.0
+7.6
+6.3
+4.2
+2.5
+3.1
+4.3
+3.3
r-3.0
P+3.4
(N/0
S+5.0
+2.2
+2.9
+1.0
+0.2
-1.0
-1.5
r-1.7
p+0.9
(N/0
57
E61
56
55
49
52
58
52
52
55
56
IBJ56
55
48
46
42
44
44
48
48
0+1.19
+0.24
-0.37
-0.39
-0.31
-0.36
+0.29
r-0.71
r-0.63
p-0.22
102.9
100.6
100.4
98.3
97.8
95.4
94-2
94.5
94.0
94.9
2
96.5
1960
January
+10.8
March
April
May
June
July
August. ........
September
October
November .......
+4.4
+2.1
-1.1
1961
January
©-3.6
March
April
J%y
+2.1
July
August
+4.0
October
November
December
+6.0
1962
January
February
March
April
May
July
August
September
E+6.7
+4.0
r+1.0
1
Revised "See Important Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
November 15, 1962
13
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
CHART 1
NBER Lagging Indicators
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip, (bil. dol.)-Q
40
Investment expenditures
30
20
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (index: 1957-59=100)
110
100
90
63. Labor cost per dol. of real GNP (index 1957-59=100)-Q
110
100
90
70
60
64. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories (bil. dol.)
50
40
3
§
30
65. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, finished goods (bil. dol.)
26 ^
jj
22
18 *
48
44
40 °?
36 J
32 8
28
24
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)
6
67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans (percent)-Qj
5
V*** »..-.\,S
iil ktlfj 111
4
,,!,,!,,I,
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.
1
Last 2 quarters are anticipated.
i
«
14
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
Other U.S. Series With Business Cycle Significance
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
1948
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.
17
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(May)
(July) (Apr.)
P
P
T
(Feb.)
T
I Industrial production indexes
-I180
-160
121. OECD countries, indus. prod, (index: 1953=100)
-140
- 120
- 100
- 80
il60
122. United Kingdom, indus. prod, (index: 1953=100)
-140
CN
-120 i
1
-100
- 80
123. Canada, indus. prod, (index: 1957=100)
120
(
100
80
47. United States, indus. prod, (index: 1957-59000)
120
100;
80
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts," page 4.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Basic Data
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
International Comparisons of Industrial Production—Con.
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
Industrial production indexes-con.
220
200
180 2
125. West Germany, indus. prod, (index: 1953 =100)
160
i
140 "
120
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
160
128. Japan, indus. prod, (index: 1955=100)
140
120
100
220
200c
180"
126. France, indus. prod, (index: 1953=100)
160
140
240
220
200
180
127. Italy, indus. prod. (indeX: 1953=100)
160
140
120 !
100
80
60
1948
1949
1950
1951 1952
1953 1954
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/1 page 4.
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
1963
Basic Data
19
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by GEJ ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators
Year and
month
1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
. Accession 0. Nonagri- . Layoff
rate, manurate, manu- ultural
placements, facturing
facturing
all indusries
(Per 100
(Hours per
employees )
prod . wkr . )
(Per 100
( Thous . ) employees )
. Number of
ersons on
emporary
ayoff, all
ndustries1
. Avg. weekly
nitial claims
or unemployment insurnce, State
ro grams
( Thous . )
( Thous . )
. Value of 24. Value of
mf rs . ' new mf rs . new
rders, dur-orders, machinery and
able goods
equipment
ndustries
industries
(fill, dol.) (Bil. dol.)
1959
March
April
Mny
July
August. ........
September
October
40.1
40.2
40.4
40.7
40.7
40.5
40.2
40.3
40.1
40.0
39.9
40.3
4.1
4.3
4.7
4.5
4.2
4.2
4.0
4.1
4.0
3.8
4.1
5.3
478
490
509
516
512
523
527
501
516
492
512
510
1.9
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.7
2.4
1.9
120
119
113
101
116
121
125
155
150
93
159
138
292
284
258
244
246
258
264
291
271
311
351
275
13.90
14.92
15.32
15.80
15.24
16.13
15.49
13.97
14.75
15.10
13.72
14.77
4.46
4-73
4-97
4.80
4.85
5.11
5.16
4-85
5.02
5.12
4.99
5-37
40.4
40.1
39.9
39.8
40.1
39.9
39.9
39.6
39.4
39.5
39.3
©38.5
4.3
4.1
3.8
3.7
3.9
3.7
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
©3.3
506
535
513
504
494
482
460
488
473
460
475
444
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.3
2.6
2.9
122
110
116
156
160
145
177
154
153
166
128
179
281
271
303
294
316
322
335
363
351
373
385
381
14.19
14.80
14.64
14.47
14.68
14-34
13.84
14.41
14.62
13.74
13.60
13.22
5.04
5.14
5.06
5.12
5-17
5.01
4.78
4.96
4.87
©4.65
4.81
4.66
39.0
39.3
39.3
39.7
39.8
59.9
40.0
40.0
39.6
40.2
40.6
40.4
4.0
3.8
E4.6
4.4
4.2
3.9
4.0
4-1
3.7
4-4
4.0
3.8
443
IM
474
©433
481
494
470
529
491
530
565
526
2.9
©2.9
2.3
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.5
1.9
2.2
1.7
1.8
2.1
193
©220
215
137
151
147
99
138
123
111
111
123
393
©429
371
370
357
331
351
315
329
307
307
305
©12.88
13.36
13.82
14-38
14-79
14.90
15.02
15-63
15.74
16.07
16.10
16.24
4-79
4.80
5.10
4-99
5.17
5.30
5.28
5-55
5-45
5.59
5.74
5.48
39.8
40.3
40.5
040.8
40.6
40.5
40.5
40.2
40.4
P40.1
4.4
4.1
4.3
4.4
4.3
3.9
4.1
r4.0
P3.7
(N/0
568
548
575
576
!E602
538
553
555
534
579
1.9
1.9
1.6
El. 6
1.8
2.0
2.4
r2.6
P2.2
(NA)
177
080
117
107
118
112
126
134
116
125
312
285
273
E270
300
305
313
301
301
302
2
312
16.43
16.19
16.00
15.73
15.97
15.44
16.27
r!5.91
rl6.04
[S]pl6.60
5.78
5.71
5.59
5.47
5.60
5.62
5.71
r5.60
GDr5.81
P5.63
1960
February
March
April
May
July
October. .......
December
1961
February
March
April
Mav
July
August
October
November .......
December. ......
1962
February.
April
May
June
July
August
September
•'•Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series,
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
2
Week ended November 10, 1962.
Prior to April 1962,
Basic Data
20
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by (El ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
9. Construction contracts
awarded for
commercial and
industrial
buildings
10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
(Mil. sq. ft.
floor space)
(Bil. dol.)
31.93
32.16
35.11
41.92
38.55
34.19
37.64
34.14
38.38
41-44
36.03
39.44
4-91
5.21
5.57
5-35
5-40
5-68
5.72
5.25
5.62
5.73
5.58
5.92
37.32
36.93
36.73
38.73
39.25
40.31
38.87
39.38
38.96
39.44
39.44
38.15
5.56
5.69
5.61
5.72
5.78
5>58
5.39
5.58
5-51
©5-27
5.39
5-30
35-18
36.90
38.16
©35.09
35-89
37.32
35.67
39.79
38.36
33.42
42.22
41.54
5-52
5.50
5.64
5.51
5.73
5.92
5.80
6.13
5-93
6.13
6.41
6.04
37.72
44.72
46.09
39.93
046.42
44.34
38.60
43.27
39.38
(NA)
6.31
06.44
6.40
6.09
6.28
6.31
6.36
r6.28
P 6.30
(NA)
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
602 manufacturing corporations
(Bil. dol.)
7. New private
27. Buying
policy, capi- nonfarm dwelling units
tal expend.,
pet. reporting started
commitments
6 mo. and over*
( Percent
reporting)
(Ann. rate,
thous . )
29. Index of
12. Net change
new private
in business
housing units population,
authorized by operating
local build- businesses
ing permits
(1957-59=100)
( Thous . )
1959
Iteirch
April
May
June
July
October
2.16
2.36
2.46
2.51
41
43
42
49
49
50
49
53
54
49
55
49
1,542
1,503
1,567
1,568
1,546
1,532
1,555
1,450
1,498
1,360
1,350
1,451
114.1
118.7
122.8
115.5
112.9
113.3
108.9
109.3
106.0
99.9
99.4
105.3
55
50
46
50
46
50
45
47
43
39
38
©37
1,302
1,366
1,089
1,275
1,309
1,264
1,209
1,335
1,067
1,237
1,206
©987
98.3
97.9
88.1
95.1
95.9
88.5
91.6
87.3
87.4
89.9
91.4
©87.1
40
39
45
45
41
38
45
47
46
39
39
47
1,098
1,115
1,262
1,143
1,268
1,351
1,318
1,301
1,365
1,404
1,328
1,257
88.7
88.8
91.6
91.8
92.3
96.9
97.7
100.4
96.8
102.6
101.9
• 110.7
41
47
44
46
39
41
38
46
048
47
1,247
1,134
1,407
1,521
01,566
1,399
1,447
rl,500
rl,250
pl,463
104.2
0113. 5
105.7
112.9
103.6
104.4
106.5
103.1
r!09.5
P107.3
+19
+20
+19
+18
1960
March
April
May
July
October
December
1961
February
March
April
May
July
August
September
October
November
2.27
2.02
©1.79
2.19
1.87
1.90
2.21
2.16
+19
+17
+14
+10
©+6
+10
+10
+10
1962
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September ......
October
m 2.34
1.97
P2.18
+11
Oil +11
+10
Analytical Measures
29
Table 2.--RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general "business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45).
The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; for example, if the rate decreased by 0,6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as 40.6.
Series
Avg.
Measure change,
Feb.
of
to
change 19481961 * Mar.
1962
Apr.
to
May
June
to
July
July
to
Aug.
Aug. Sept. Oct.
to
to
to
Sept. Oct. Nov.2
-0.2
+0.7
-0.5
+2.3
-2.3
-9.3
+0.2
+4.5 -10.6
0.0 -12.5 -11.1
0.0
+5.1
+2.8
-20.0
-0.7
-2.4
+0.4
-8.3
+0.5
-7.5
-3.8
+15.4
-0.7
NA
+8.4
NA
+13.4
-7.8
Mar.
to
Apr.
May
to
June
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
2
30.
3.
4.
Accession rate manufacturing
Nonagri. placements, all industries...
Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted).
Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (inverted)
5. Avg. weekly claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (inverted).
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
Percent . . 0.5 +0.5
6.0 -'-4. 9
. .do.
..do
3.4 +4.9
11.9 +15.8
..do
-46.3
+8.5
-10.3
+5.1
-12.5
-6.3
7.0
+4.2
+1.1
-11.1
-1.7
-2.6
+3.8
5.6
. .do
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
6.1
machinery and equipment industries... ..do
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings.. . .do
12.4
10. Contracts and orders for plant and
. .do. . .'. . 6 4
11. Newly approved capital appropriations,
..do
11.2
602 manufacturing corporations3
27. Buying policy, capital expend., per cent
reporting commitments 6 mo. or more.. ..do
7.6
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units
. .do
41
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits.... . .do
3.9
12. Net change in business population,
3
Thous ....
13. Number of new business incorporations. Percent . . 3.0
14. Current liabilities of business
. .do
16 3
15. No. of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over (inv.)
..do
17.3
77
. .do
17. Price per unit of labor cost index.... ..do
0.7
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of
. .do
sales, all mfg. corporations3
7.7
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
. . do
5 8
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks
..do
2.6
Ann. rate,
21. Change in bus. inventories, farm and
bil.dol. 3.1
nonfarm, after val. adjustment3 4. . . .
31. Change in book value of mfg. and
4.0
..do
1
20. Change in book value of mfrs.. inven1.7
..do
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., percent
report, commitments 60 days or more.. Percent . . 6.2
32. Vendor performance, percent report11.3
. . do
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders,
4
durable goods industries
• Bil. dol. 0.46
23. Index of industrial materials prices.. Percent . . 2.2
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricul0.4
. .do
42. Total no nagri cultural employment,
0.4
. .do
4.7
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)... ..do
5.8
40. Unemploy. rate, married males (inv.).. ..do
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate,
5.6
..do
State programs ( inverted )
-1.2
-1.7
+1.5
-3.3
+5.4
-2.2
+0.8
+3.5
-2.1
-2.1
+2.4
+0.4
+1.6
-1.9
+3.8
-3.1
+3.1
-13.4
+16.3
-4.5
-12.9
+12.1
-9.0
NA
-1 3
+0 3
NA
See footnotes at end of table.
..do
..do
19.4
-0 6
-4 8
+3 1
+0 5
+0 8
-7.3
+21.1
+4.3
-2.1
+3.4
+3.7
-16.7
+17.0
+0.8
+2.0
-3.2
+6.2
-2.0
-2.3
+2.3
-0.9
+1.0
NA
+3 9 -16 7 -32 4 +28 1
NA
+5.1
-6.4
+4.5
+24 1
+8 1
+3 0 -10 7
-6.9
+6.8
-8.2
-0.6
-2.0
-0.9
o
+18 5
-56 8 +14 4
-15.6
-2.7
+0.4
-0.9
-0.3
_1
+2.6 -13.5
+2 0
+0.1
+0.3
+11.9
+1.1
-16.2
NA
-1.4
+4.7
-17.1
+2.5
-0.6
-0.9
-3.2
NA
+1.2
-3.2
+1 1
-7.4 -11.7
-2.1
-1.7
+0.6
+1.2
-1.0
-6.3
+6.4
NA
+0.7
-1.9
-0.8
-1.2
-0*.5
-0.2
+2.6
NA
-8.2
-1.8
-10.9
+6.1
+11.5
-10.3
-1.8
-12.7
-4.2
-8.7
+4.8
-0.61
-0.2
-0.02
-2.1
+0.2
+0.7
+0.3
+0.2
+0.1
-0.1
+0.1
+0.1
+0.1
+2.3
-2.1
-0.1
-1.7
-7.2
+0.9
+2.0
+9.4
0.0
-0.6
-8.0
+0.1
+2.0
+3.3
+0.6
-9.0
-5.4
-0.4
+0.9
+6.7
0.0
+4.3
+1.4
+2.8
-3.7
-7.3
-3.8
+0.7
-3.9
+0.1
+2.4
+10.9
NA.
+2.7
+7.1
-3.0
-2.7
+2.4
-3.3
+10.7
-15.8
-15.2
0.0
+0.08 -0.05
-0.5
-2.5
0.0
0.0
+9.1
+5.8
0.0
+0.65 -1.00 +0.08 +0.41
+1.0
-1.3
+0.3 -0.5
+1.7
-0.2
Analytical Measures
30
Table 2.--RECENT CHANGES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
To facilitate interpretations of cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises
and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises are shown as declines and declines as rises (see series 3, 4,
5, 14, 15, 40, 43, and 45). The month-to-month percent changes are calculated in the usual way but the signs are reversed; for example, if the rate decreased by 0.6 percent, the sign of this drop is reversed and shown as +0.6.
Series
Avg.
Measure
change,
of
Feb.
1948change
to
19611
Mar.
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS— Con.
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in
Percent. .
newspapers
..do
47. Index of industrial production
3
50. Gross national product in 1954 dol. .. ..do
49 Gross national product in cur. dol. . .do
. .do
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers.. ..do
..do
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing,
..do
. . do
54. Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices except farm
..do
1962
Mar.
to
Apr.
Apr.
to
May
May
to
June
June
to
July
July
to
Aug.
Aug. Sept.
to
to
Sept. Oct.
3.3 +0.4.
1.2 +0.9
1.4
1.9
1.6
-0.2
+0.6
-0.1
+0.6
+0.7
+1.3
+1.8
-7.1
+0.2
-0.6
+0.6
-4.1
+0.2
+4.2
-0.3
1.6 +3.6
0.7 +0.8
+3.0
+0.7
-1.4
+0.3
-0.7
+0.2
+2.7
+0.3
-0.9
+0.3
+0.2
+0.6
+1.1
-1.8
+0.2
-1.4
+0.1
+5.4
+0.5
1.1 +0.8
1.6 +1.6
+1.8
+1.7
+0.1
-0.8
-0.2
-1.8
+0.3
+3.1
-0.2
-0.6
-0.2
+0.5
+0.1
+2.1
+0.1
+0.2
-0.1
+0.1
-0.2
+0.2
-0.1
-1.9
+0.3
+0.2
NA
0.0
+0.4
NA
NA
0.3
0.0
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant
3.6
62. Index of wage and salary cost per
unit of output, total manufacturing.. ..do
63. Index of labor cost per unit of out-
+1.0
1.0
0.0
O.C
5
+2.2
+3.5
0.7 -0.5
Oct.
to
Nov.2
-0.1
-1.0
+1.4
+0.7
+1.3
64. Book value of mfrs.' inventories, all
..do
65. Book value of mfrs.1 inventories of
finished goods, all mfg. industries.. ..do
. . do
67. Bank rates on short-term business
0.9 +0.7
+0.2
+0.2
+0.2
+0.2
0.0
1.0 +0.5
1.2 +0.6
0.0
+1.2
+0.5
+0.9
+0.4
+0.7
+0.4
+0.8
+0.4
+0.9
3.0
+0.6
-0.4
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
86. Exports, excluding military aid ship87. General imports total
..do
..do
Mil. dol.
-1.1
-7.6
3.7 -11.9 +10.0
+4.7
-3.9
-2.8
+0.6
+0.8
+2.9
+1.7
3.5 +1.7
58.6 -242.0 +124.4 -30.7 +123.4 -148.4 -90.1
+17.2
+6.6
NA
NA
NA
-6.1
89. Excess of receipts or payments in
332
. .do
82. Federal cash payments to the public... Percent . . 7.2
83. Federal cash receipts from the public. ..do
7.5
Ann. rate
5.7
Ml. dol.
95. Surplus or deficit, Federal income
3.2
..do
and product account3 4
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement. Percent . . 25.4
15.6
..do
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total
-1.3
-6.1
+2.7
+16.7
-4.7
+12.8
+258
-2.9
+3.4
-0.8
-10.7
+8.7
+8.0
-502
-1.5
+4.4
-4.1
NA
NA
+6.9
-11.2
-1.1
+6.5
+2.2
NA
NA
+M4.4 -52.0
-3.7 +52.3 -20.7
-26.7
-15.7
NA
NA
+1.7
+CL3 +65^6 -43.5
+0.4 +14.7 -11.7
92. Military prime contract awards to
. . do
29.2
+5.1 -16.8
-4.4
-3.3
+19.4
+29.9
NA
85. Percent change in total U.S. money
0.22 +0.41 +0.13 -0.54 +0.20 +0.14 -0.48 +0.55 +0.41
..do
138
+72
-7
-58
-7
-63
-55 +62
+35
Mil. dol.
-0.1
0.0 +0.2
+0.1
+0.2
+0.4
NA
Percent. . 0.3 +0.3
94. Index of construction contracts,
. . do
8.3 +10.1
-7.6
-3.3
+2.6
-2.5
+0.9
-4.2
NA
lr
rhis average is based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) changes without regard to sign.
The period varies
among the series, beginning with the earliest date shown in chart 1 and ending on the date a revision or new seasonal adjustment made new computations feasible.
2
Percentage changes cover part of this period only.
3
Quarterly series.
Figures show change from previous quarter and are placed in middle month of quarter.
Thus the
figure for GNP (series 49) shown in the column April-May refers to the change from the 1st quarter of 1962 to the 2nd
quarter of 1962.
^Figures are the month-to-month (quarter-to-quarter) differences in the figures shown in table 1.
5
Anticipated.
Basic Data
23
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by IE] ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5t 14, 15, 40, 43, 45).
Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
Year and
month
1959
February
rferch
April
May
July
August. ........
October
November
41. Number
of employees
in nonagricultural
establishments
42. Total
nonagricultural employment,
labor force
survey1
( Thous . )
( Thous . )
43. Unem40. Unem45. Average
ployment
ployment
weekly in1
rate, total rate, marsured unemried males1 ployment
rate, State
programs
( Percent )
( Percent )
( Percent )
46. Index of 47. Index of
help-wanted industrial
advertising production
in newspapers
(1957=100)
50. Gross
national
product in
1954 dollars
(Ann. rate,
(1957-59=100) bil. dol.)
2
Revised
101.2
103.0
421.7
104.8
107.1
434-0
109.4
109.9
107.5
104.1
427.6
104.0
102.8
431.1
103.4
109.5
52,446
52,612
52,843
53,328
53,606
53,779
53,879
53,357
53,413
53,353
53,622
54,116
59,016
58,974
59,337
59,520
59,668
59,752
60,108
60,103
59,925
60,225
59,741
60,465
5.97
5.91
5.63
5.23
5.09
5.04
5.15
5.32
5.56
5.72
5.7^
5.41
4.09
4.06
3.69
3.22
3.24
3.12
3.28
3.39
3.68
3.70
4.24
3.36
4.94
4 066
4-32
3.95
3.62
3.53
3.72
4.H
4.15
4.78
5.51
4.76
84.9
91.9
96.7
102.8
102.0
105.6
108.8
105.5
105.1
103.2
104.8
103.5
54,211
54,445
54,427
54,702
54,584
54,538
54,514
54,403
54,301
54,190
53,995
53,707
60,436
60,875
60,488
61,132
61,371
61,293
61,133
61,035
60,996
60,758
61,210
©60,635
5.29
4.91
5.38
5.17
5.14
5.44
5.44
5.75
5.70
6.14
6.18
6.65
3.35
3.02
3.48
3.34
3.36
3.61
3.70
3.95
3.83
4.32
4.46
4.73
4.27
4.17
4.54
4.26
4.19
4.39
4.67
5.10
5.38
5,68
6.27
©6.33
109.0
110.1
105.4
100.3
99.7
97.8
90.1
89.4
82.6
84.6
82.2
©79.0
111.7
111.0
110.5
109.7
109.9
109.6
109.1
108.7
107.8
107.0
105.4
103.6
53,581
©53,485
53,561
53,663
53,894
54,182
54,335
54,333
54,304
54,385
54,525
54,492
60,852
60,922
61,274
61,101
61,234
61,543
61,371
61,417
61,188
61,369
61,840
61,618
6.65
6.91
6.76
6.93
©7.02
6.86
6.87
6.81
6.86
6066
6.11
6.00
4.72
©4.91
4.65
4.88
4-89
4.77
4.71
4.77
4.60
4.19
4.23
3.90
6.15
6.32
6.26
5.91
5.61
5.32
5.29
5.22
5.10
5.04
5.08
4.81
79.9
79.3
81.1
79.8
82.0
83.8
82.6
86.1
84.8
95.9
99.1
96.9
©103.3
103.4
103.8
106.6
108.8
110.9
112.0
113.4
112.0
113.5
114.8
115.6
54,434
54,773
54,901
55,260
55,403
55,535
55,617
r55,536
r55,582
[H]p55,626
61,690
62,206
62,280
62,236
62,775
62,747
62,809
063,172
62,914
62,915
5.82
5.58
5.45
5.54
5.43
5.46
[E'5.35
5.83
5.78
5.53
3.80
3.40
3.47
3.72
©3.37
3.64
3.52
3.71
3.46
3.41
4.71
4.52
4.41
3.93
03.82
3.96
4.25
4-41
4.38
4.55
3
4.56
1960
February
March
April
May
July
August
October
440.9
442.3
439.7
437.7
1961
January
February
March
April
Iteiy
July
August
September
October
•
©433.9
443.9
450.4
463.4
1962
January
February
March.
April
May
July
Augus t
September
October ........
102.3
105.9
0106.3
106.1
106.0
98.5
97.9
97.0
P93.0
P96.9
114.3
116.0
117.0
117.7
118.4
118.6
119.3
119.6
53119.8
P119.5
467.4
470.8
03471.6
December
Beginning with April 1962, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series,
the 1950 Census is used as the benchmark.
^See "Important Features and Changes for This Issue," page ii.
Week ended November 3, 1962.
Prior to April 1962,
Basic Data
24
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by (D and current highs are indicated by E ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators — Continued
Year and
month
49. Gross na- 57. Final
tional product sales
(series 49
in current
minus 21)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
472.0
465.5
487.8
476.3
482.7
481.5
488.5
481.4
501.7
490.8
504.8
500.4
503.7
501.5
503.3
504.4
©500.8
©504.4
51. Bank
52. Personal
debits outside income
NYC, 343
centers
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
54. Sales of
53. Labor
income in
retail stores
mining, manufacturing, and
construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol. )
(Mil. dol.)
55. Index of
wholesale
prices except
farm products
and foods
(1957-59S100)
1959
February
March
April
Mav
July
October
November
December
1,577.3
1,609.4
1,627.7
1,656.1
1,638.3
1,639.2
1,685.6
1,658.8
1,654-1
1,668.0
1,692.9
1,699.6
372.1
374.7
378.4
382.3
384.8
387.0
387.4
384.3
384.9
385.4
389.7
395.5
100.3
101.3
103.3
105.0
106.1
107.1
106.6
103.6
103.7
102.9
104.3
107.7
17,455
17,575
17,914
17,953
18,222
18,189
18,296
18,110
17,784
18,341
17,842
17,485
100.4
100.8
101.0
101.2
101.5
101.4
101.5
101.4
101.5
101.5
101.5
101.5
1,692.2
1,765.4
1,715.2
1,731.2
1,731.2
1,739.0
1,714.0
1,771.8
1,766.5
1,738.0
1,758.9
©1,742.3
395.7
395.2
395.3
400.2
401.6
402.5
402.4
403.2
403.8
404.7
403.8
©402.6
108.7
108.5
107.9
108.3
108.8
108.4
108.3
107.6
107.0
106.9
105.5
103.7
18,100
18,161
18,219
18,860
18,428
18,466
18,118
18,201
18,104
18,543
18,398
17,887
101.5
101.4
101.4
101.4
101.2
101.3
101.3
101.3
101.1
101.2
101.1
101.0
1,786.2
1,755.0
1,785.1
1,781.8
1,829.3
1,824.0
1,839.9
1,832.7
1,848.2
1,904.6
1,903.8
1,916.9
403.4
404.2
406.7
410.6
413.3
416.4
U17.5
418.3
419.7
423.6
427.8
430.5
104.0
©103.3
104.2
106.0
107.1
108.5
108.9
108.5
108.3
110.1
111.7
111.8
©17,773
17,786
18,117
17,851
17,985
18,189
18,017
18,172
18,131
18,577
19,098
18,827
101.0
101.0
101.0
100.9
100.8
100.7
100.7
100.7
100.8
100.6
100.8
100.9
2,010.0
1,916.7
1,985.5
2,044.5
2,015.3
2,000.3
2,055.1
2,017.1
1,988.6
G3p2, 096.1
428.8
431.9
435.2
438.3
439.7
440.7
441.9
443.0
r443.5
®p445.6
110.8
112.1
113.0
115.0
115.1
114.9
E115.2
115.0
rl!4.8
plH.9
18,835
18,965
19,266
19,596
19,432
19,089
19,682
r!9,569
r!9,662
[y]p20,071
100.8
100.6
©100.6
100.7
100.9
100.8
100.9
100.7
0100 ..9
100.8
2
100. 8
1960
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
Augrust
October.
December
1961
March
April
Jfey
July
August
September . , r T . ,
October
November
December
513.1
511.0
522.3
518.3
538.6
532.6
545.0
538.3
552.0
547.9
Er555.3
[R]r554.2
1
1962
January
February
March
April
May
July
September
October
December
^•Excludes stepped-up rate of payments and special payments of government life insurance dividends to veterans in
March 1961 ($1.8 billion) and July 196] ($2.6 billion), respectively.
2
Week ended November 13, 1962.
31
Analytical Measures
Table 3.-DISTRIBUTION OF HIGHS IN BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS DURING RECENT MONTHS COMPARED WITH PERIODS AROUND
PREVIOUS BUSINESS CYCLE PEAKS
Number of series that reached a high before benchmark dates—
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was reached
Business cycle peak
Nov.
1948
July
1953
3d month before business cycle peak
Aug.
1948
May
1960
July
1957
Apr.
1953
Apr.
1957
Feb.
1960
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
7
1
3
1
12
1
4
1
22
1
2
2
2 months
14
2
1
3
2
1
3
4
11
1
2
2
3
1
1
4
1
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
2
19
16
1
1
1
4
3
*18
0
20
23
0
23
0
2
19
21
*18
0
12
1
1
2
1
3
2
1
23
0
23
4
1
1
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
3
6 months
5 months
4
1
2
1
1
1
3
1
2
3
3
11
9
11
27
1 month
Benchmark month.
Number of months before
benchmark date that
high was- reached
2
1
1
2
1
3 months
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
1
2
2
3
Jan.
1953
1
5
2
3
4
4
1
4
4
2
3
3
3
6
11
45
11
27
11
36
11
36
11
27
11
55
6th month before business cycle peak
May
1948
1
Jan.
1957
Nov.
1959
Current expansion
Aug.
1962
July
1962
Sept.
1962
Oct.
1962
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
17
1
1
1
19
16
4
2
4 months
2 months
2
2
1
Benchmark month
X
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
2
1
2
1
4
1
2
3
3
6
1
7 months
6 months
18
6
2
1
1
4
4
4
2
4
5
2
4
6
7
4
6
9
5
**3
3
3
**3
3
1
1
2
2
23
4
23
9
23
0
7
2
2
3
23
0
"*3
"3
1
23
13
15
7
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8 months or more
1
1
1
6 months
1
4
2
4
3 months
Benchmark month
Number of series used
Percent of series high on benchmark date.
1
1
2
1
5
2
3
6
5
3
11
45
11
55
11
27
1
1
1
...
2
3
11
27
1
*9
11
82
"o
3
11
27
5
1
3
11
27
2
1
2
4
11
36
All quarterly series, 1.leading monthly series (series 15), and 1 roughly coincident series (series 40) are omitted
from the distribution.
1
5 series were not available.
2
2 series were not available and 2. series were omitted because their peaks were reached during the Korean War and
such peaks were disregarded in this distribution.
32
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT
CHART 2
NBER Leading Indicators
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May)
(Feb.)
P
T
Percentage
Expanding
Dl. Av. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg. (21 Indus.)
[3-mo. interval ]
-noo
D6. New orders, dur. goods Indus. (21 Indus.)
[3-mo. interval ]
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations
.. 602 cos. [4-quarter interval ]
._—--. 15 indus. [1-quarter interval]
D33. Profits, Chicago PAA, percent reporting
higher profits (200 cos.) [1-mo. interval ]
D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting
higher profits (700 cos.) [1-auarter interval ]
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (82 indus.)
[3-mo. interval ]
D23. Industrial materials prices (13 indus. mtls.)
[3-mo. interval ]
D5. Initial claims, State unempl. insur.
(47 areas)--inverted
[3-mo. interval ]
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
Ste "How to Read the Time Series Charts,1' page 4.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
Basic Data
25
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by ED ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Lagging Indicators
Year and
month
61. Business
expenditures
on new plant
and equipment,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1959
February
March
April
May
June
July
30.60
32.50
33.35
September
33.60
December
1960
January
35.15
March
April
May
36.30
July
35.90
September
35.50
November
December
1961
January
33.85
April
©33.50
l-fey
June
July
34.70
October
35.40
December
1962
January . '.
35.70
March
April
May
June
July
August
October
November
036.95
2
37.75
2
37.95
62. Index of
63. Index of
64. Book value
wage and
labor cost per of manufacsalary cost
unit of output, turers' invenper unit of
tories, all
total GNP
output, total
manufacturing
manufacturing
industries
(1957-59=100)
Revised1
98.9
98.8
98.7
97.6
97.5
98.3
99.2
100.1
100.2
100.2
101.5
98.7
96.7
98.1
98.5
99.1
99.6
100.1
99.8
100.5
100.4
100.2
100.4
101.0
100.9
101.1
101.2
100.0
99.6
98.8
98.3
97.4
©97.3
97.5
98.0
97.5
98.0
98.2
97.7
98.7
98.7
98.6
97.6
099.0
97.1
P97.4
(1957-59=100)
Revised1
(Bil. dol.)
100.5
101.0
102.5
102.7
103.2
104.3
105.4
105.0
106.1
105.8
105.8
©104.7
105.5
106.9
0107.6
^•See "Important Features and Changes For This Issue," page ii.
Anticipated.
65. Book value 66 . Consumer
of mfrs.' in- installment
debt
ventories of
finished goods,
all manufacturing ind.
(Bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol. )
49.5
49.9
50.5
51.1
51.6
52.1
52.2
52.1
51.9
51.5
51.6
52.4
18.8
19.1
19.2
19.3
19.4
19.3
19.3
19.4
19.6
19.6
19.7
20.1
33,391
33,763
34,171
34,609
35,064
35,558
36,093
36,704
37,271
37,785
38,203
38,534
53.3
53.9
54.3
54.7
55.0
55.1
54.9
55.0
54.7
54.4
54.0
53.7
20.4
20.6
20.8
21.0
21.2
21.3
21.4
21.6
21.9
21.9
21.9
21.8
38,897
39,366
39,773
40,303
40,608
40,907
41,175
41,401
41,627
41,799
41,961
42,079
53.7
53.6
©53.3
53.4
53.4
53.4
53.5
54.0
54.4
54.8
55.0
55.2
21.8
21.8
21.7
21.7
21.5
21.5
©21.5
21.7
21.8
21.9
21.9
22.0
42,070
41,993
41,980
41,873
41,885
41,885
©41,857
41,901
41,887
42,068
42,368
42,632
55.7
56.2
56.6
56.7
56.8
56.9
57.0
57.0
0p57.1
(N/0
22.1
22.1
22.2
22.2
22.3
22.4
22.5
r22.6
0p22.6
(M)
42,847
43,083
43,352
43,869
44,282
44,600
44,941
45,327
045,492
(M)
67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans, 19
cities*
(Percent)
4.51
4.87
5.27
5.36
5.34
5.35
4.97
4.99
4.97
4.97
4.99
©4.96
4.98
ED5.01
4.99
Basic Data
26
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (•*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by © and current highs are indicated by [H] ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised;^ "p", preliminary.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance
86. Exports, 87. General
imports ,
excluding
military aid total
shipments,
total
Year and
month
88. Merchandise trade
balance
(series 86
minus 87)
89. Excess, 82. Federal
receipts (+) cash payor payments ments to the
(-) in U.S. public
balance of
payments
(Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.)
83. Federal 84. Federal
cash surplus
cash receipts from (+) or deficit (-)
the public
95. Surplus
( + ) or deficit (-), Federal income
and product
account
(Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate, (Ann. rate,
bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol.) bil. dol. )
1959
February.
Iterch
April
May.
June
July
'...
September
1960
January
February
March
April
May
September
November .......
1,318.5
1,292.1
1,300.9
1,296.8
1,326.6
1,345.9
1,394.6
1,429.2
1,498.8
1,335.2
1,380.7
1,497.2
1,164.6
1,194.5
1,213.5
1,210.3
1,312.9
1,311.7
1,251.1
1,298.3
1,407.9
1,200.5
1,298.6
1,333.2
+153.9
+97.6
+87.4
+86.5
+13.7
+34.2
+143.5
+130.9
+90.9
+134.7
+82.1
+164.0
1,561.3
1,565.7
1,518.1
1,622.2
1,659.3
1,633.8
1,706.5
1,624.8
1,647.2
1,667.6
1,680.6
1,645.3
1,246.3
1,348.0
1,289.8
1,348.6
1,269.0
1,276.5
1,270.7
1,255.8
1,220.6
1,206.0
1,161.7
1,124.8
+315.0
+217.7
+228.3
+273.6
+390.3
+357.3
+435.8
+369.0
+426.6
+461.6
+518.9
+520.5
1,646.1
1,736.4
1,711.1
1,658.3
1,577.0
1,594.9
1,668.0
1,659.7
1,667.8
1,772.9
1,716.3
1,719.£
1,150.9
1,146.1
1,158.4
1,159.0
1,155.2
1,177.2
1,366.4
1,261.3
1,280.3
1,322.4
1,310.7
1,296.5
+495 .2
+590.3
+552.7
+499.3
+421.8
+417.7
+301.6
+398.4
+387.5
+450.5
+405 .6
+422.7
1,660.0
1,852.1
1,632.1
1,794.6
1,774.7
1,858.9
1,718.1
1,651.6
1,935.9
(NO
1,320.1
1,314.1
1,336.1
1,374.2
1,385.0
1,345.8
1,353.4
1,377.0
1,467.8
(M)
+339.9
+538.0
+296.0
+420.4
+389.7
+513.1
+364.7
+274.6
+468.1
(NA)
-951
1
-1,062
-1,191
-539
-702
-752
-1,192
2
-l,279
100.0
96.0
92.7
96.4
95.1
96.2
97.0
96.2
93.2
92.9
99.9
91.2
81.5
84.9
76.8
87.2
86.0
81.2
89.4
92.4
95.7
88.3
96.6
98.8
-18.5
-11.1
-15.9
-9.2
-9.1
-15.0
-7.6
-3.8
+2.5
-4.6
-3.3
+7.6
89.9
97.8
91.9
94.9
94.4
91.9
91.5
97.4
95.0
92.7
102.3
96.0
89.9
96.6
94.2
99.8
102.9
94.8
93.6
104.0
100.5
91.7
103.3
100.4
0.0
-1.2
+2.3
+4.9
+8.5
+2.9
+2.1
+6.6
+5.5
-1.0
+1.0
+4.4
96.8
95.4
107.2
100.7
110.9
105.4
97.5
101.8
111.1
107.3
103.8
93.1
93.2
89.1
98.0
102.2
95.3
90.3
104.0
100.8
99.1
103.9
102.8
-3.7
-2.2
-18.1
-2.7
-8.7
-10.1
-7.2
-10.0
-1.0
-12.0
-3.4
-1.0
116.1
108.7
107.3
110.2
107.0
106.1
115.3
113.6
106.7
(M)
100.0
99.9
93.8
109.5
113.2
101.1
109.2
114.0
109.3
(SO
-16.1
-8.8
-13.5
-0.7
+6.2
-5.0
-6.1
+0.4
+2.6
(MO
-2.6
+1.6
-2.4
-1.0
+8.1
+5.5
+1.5
-0.4
1961
March.
April
l^fety
June
July
August
September
October
December
-319
3
+176
-910
-1,408
in.o
-6.3
-4.2
-3.3
-1.3
1962
April
May
July
September
1
Excludes
2
Includes
3
-476
-218
P-720
U.S. subscription to International Monetary Fund of $1,375 million in gold and securities.
single direct investment transactions of $370 million.
Includes $650 million in special debt payments to the United States.
-2.4
-0.7
(M)
Basic Data
27
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by SH ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45).
Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
Other U.S. series with business cycle significance — Continued
Year and
month
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Mil. dol. )
91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total
(Mil. dol.)
92. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
(Mil. dol.)
85. Percent
change in
total U.S.
money supply
( Percent )
93. Free
reserves*
81. Index of
consumer
prices
94. Index of
construction
contracts,
total value
(Mil. dol.) (1957-59=100) (1957-59=100)
1959
March
April
May
July
August. ........
October
November
1,330
1,362
1,371
1,398
1,381
1,425
1,202
870
1,319
1,517
1,124
929
3,538
3,601
3,739
3,620
3,569
3,863
3,729
3,263
3,906
3,802
3,608
3,160
1,465
1,916
1,772
1,762
1,513
1,905
2,249
1,986
1,931
2,123
2,289
1,320
+0.28
+0.28
+0.35
+0.07
+0.42
+0.14
+0.42
-0.35
-0.21
-0.21
-0.14
-0.49
-59
-48
-140
-259
-319
-513
-556
-536
-493
-459
-433
-424
101.0
101.0
100.9
101.0
101.2
101.4
101.6
101.7
101.9
102.2
102.2
102.3
98
95
110
118
103
114
115
102
106
110
92
97
937
1,104
1,020
983
1,373
1,269
2,866
1,230
1>206
998
1,559
1,239
3,234
3,439
3,368
3,362
3,677
3,771
5,305
3,824
3,926
3,299
4,109
3,671
1,770
1,740
1,738
1,368
1,811
1,687
2,231
2,302
2,361
1,477
2,127
1,797
-0.14
-0.28
-0.28
-O.U
-0.28
-0.28
+0.21
+0.36
+0.07
+0.07
-0.14
+0.28
-375
-365
-219
-194
-33
+37
+120
+247
+414
+480
+614
+669
102.3
102.5
102.6
102.9
103.0
103.1
103.1
103.3
103.2
103.5
103.6
103.8
93
93
100
105
97
108
113
109
107
117
111
120
1,306
1,476
1,163
1,089
1,117
1,238
1,671
2,237
1,864
1,436
1,372
1,891
3,621
3,976
3,552
3,449
3,600
3,723
4,314
5,344
4,785
4,191
4,121
4,681
1,944
2,153
1,774
1,882
1,501
1,888
2,066
2,389
2,127
2,847
2,500
2,153
+0.14
+0.28
+0.28
+0.21
+0.21
0.00
+0.07
0.00
+0.42
+0.49
+0.49
+0.55
+696
+517
+486
+551
+453
+549
+530
+537
+547
+442
+517
+419
103.9
104.0
104.1
103.9
104.0
104.0
104.3
104.4
104.5
104.4
104.4
104.4
108
95
104
103
102
111
110
116
103
114
116
119
1,912
1,147
1,150
1,904
1,075
1,164
2,845
1,365
1,000
(NA)
4,449
3,899
3,914
4,491
3,967
3,821
5,821
r4,6l8
3,892
(NA)
3,429
2,121
2,230
1,855
1,774
1,715
2,047
2,660
(NA)
+0.14
-0.27
+O.U
+0.27
-0.27
-0.07
+0.07
-0.41
+0.14
p+0.55
+546
+434
+379
+441
+434
+371
+443
+436
r+378
p+413
104.6
104.9
105.2
105.2
105.4
105.3
105.4
105.6
106.0
(NA)
115
119
131
121
117
120
117
118
113
(NA)
1960
March
April
Mav
July
September
October
November. ......
December
1961
January
February
March
April
jvfey
July
August
October
1962
February. ......
March
April
Mav
July
August
September
October
November
December.
28
Basic Data
Table l.-BASIC DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated
by an asterisk (*). Low values preceding current highs are indicated by CD and current highs are indicated by 13 ;
the reverse is true for inverted series (series 3, 4, 5, 14, 15, 40, 43, 45). Series numbers are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Sources are shown in "Complete Titles and Sources of
Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes" on the back cover, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
Internationa]L comparisons of industrial. production
Year and
month
121. OECD,1
European
countries,
index of
industrial
production
122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production
(1953*100)
(1953=100)
1959
October
1960
January
March
April
May
June
July
August
October
December. ••••••
1961
January
February
April
ffey
June
July
October
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
(1953=100)
(1957=100) (1957-59=100)
Revised2
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
(1953=100)
139
139
139
141
141
143
145
147
150
153
104
105
105
107
107
108
107
106
108
110
108
109
101
103
105
107
109
110
108
104
104
103
103
110
151
154
158
158
158
160
161
164
167
169
170
175
151
152
155
154
155
157
157
157
158
159
160
160
128
128
129
131
131
130
130
131
131
131
129
131
111
110
111
107
108
107
106
107
108
107
107
107
112
111
110
110
110
110
109
109
108
107
105
104
173
174
177
176
178
181
182
177
181
185
185
187
170
166
167
170
169
17A
159
162
162
163
162
163
164
163
163
164
166
167
128
129
129
130
129
132
133
130
128
128
128
128
107
107
107
109
109
112
112
114
115
115
116
116
103
103
104
107
109
111
112
113
112
114
115
116
190
192
193
19?
191
186
188
186
190
189
178
180
183
181
181
184
184
184
184
189
167
i AQ
168
r!70
126
116
I PQ
1 1£
1 30
119
1 PQ
11 Q
1 19
~\ ^
i op
±j<~\ 1C*
T ppl
114
116
117
118
118
136
July
47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production
115
115
117
118
118
120
121
122
124
126
126
128
134
April
May
123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production
197
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production
(1953=100)
(1955=100)
1A9
148
152
152
154
154
153
154
152
151
158
161
165
171
173
156
157
159
159
154
160
163
168
175
175
177
180
180
183
181
172
178
180
179
181
184
182
186
itf*;
184
188
188
1 #n
19/
19?
-\qj
197
197
200
T90
157
160
162
168
173
178
181
184
188
192
196
202
205
211
212
218
218
222
opr
ppq
poy
235
2/3
py C
25?
2/9
25S
pco
9A7
272
209
278
pop
284
290
193
215
215
?9A
1 QO
iy<i
Ol A
203
PQC
1962
April
May
July
August
September
October
November
December
170
17D
-i 7P)
-| 70
/MA
^Jm )"\
(NK
i.Jm )"\
1Q7
-| QQ
iyy
-i op
lV«c
opn
1 QQ
J-77
1 pp\
119
1 Q£
i on
119
-i Qr»
-1 <-)-!
120
-I Qrj
/»TA \
(NA)
1 ppi
120
J-7 /
200
/MA
•'•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
2
Revised. See "Important Features and Changes For This Issue," page ii.
\
(W.)
-1 QO
19.5
-I QO.
J-yJ
194
T QA
19o
1 QA
195
198
-j /-jrt
198
200
/»T. \
(NAJ
217
O1 K.
215
218
•K.OOT
r2<cl
217
/MA N
(m)
295
292
300
298
302
301
r296
298
/MA \
(NA.)
33
Analytical Measures
DIFFUSION INDEXES: 1948 TO PRESENT—Con.
NBER Roughly Coincident Indicators
(May)
(F«b.)
P
T
Percentage
Expanding
D41. Employees in nonagr. establishments (30 indus.)
[1-mo. interval ]
D47. Industrial production (24 indus.)
[1-mo. interval ]
D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods (23 indus.)
[1-mo. interval 1
D54. Sales of retail stores (24 types of stores)
[3-mo. interval 1
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
See "How to Read the Time Series Charts/' page 4.
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961 1962
1963
Analytical Measures
34
CHART 3 • DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED: 1948 TO PRESENT
-•••V ' '
(Nov.)
(Oct.)
P
(July)
T
i
(Aug.)
P
1
1
(July) (Apr.)
T
i
.
P
T
P
j
I
1
Percentage
Expanding
(Moy) (Feb.)
T
m1
............. Actual
• ' • • ' Anticipated
................ Change in total carloadings
D35. Net sales, all mfrs. (800 cos.):
[4-quarter interval]
*X
\
L:
^
r
^x"
w
— 100
JT*>
"^-i-l"
.^*~~~$
^*+- •-.
K-"**
«v^
^^
en
jU
- 0
D36. h lew orde rs, dur. g oods mfr s. (400 c:os.)
[4- quarter i nterval]
— 100
i
^x*s>*i*
,f-
"^e^
£?
*--tr-«>
*"*C
X
->~-
«"
^ *-«j^i--*"-
: S
jiff
•^7^
4T
*""
en
DU
^
— 0
D48. C arloadin gs(19m rd. comnriodity gr oups)*
[4•quarter nterval .
£
\ \
*••*•»».
**••« \*
"N
V
<f"
u
./7
*-•'••*
D61. h ew plan \
/~~*N f» \
/
' \
/
\/
\
\s\
\
1948
\5*
/
and equipment e xpend.
[1-quar rer inter\ral]
\
^^\
A.
*x *-^^-
-/;\x;' A \ \ *'i
ifi-
'-..-''
V
^N /
—i 100
^
~***\
sn
/'***'
"
-^w *
-1 0
( 17-22 ind us.)
.—x
/
•—
>
"•-..
V
kX
nlnlnlu «l»Un
\
^
f,ii
•
N
'^^'\
\ --•
/
j/V\
\
/
i
""**^^ A
/ /'*"Xyv
SA
*
-1 100
^vxV- rx^""* ^
5
>*"
^*
50
-JO
,. l,.l.,l.. .,l,.l,.l., .,l,,l,,ln
1949 1950
..lnl»t»
:«U»I..
In
1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962
Data are centered within intervals. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
D35, D36 (October 1962)...
D48 (September 1962)
D61 (August 1962)
Latest interval shown
Actual
3rdQ 1961 - 3 r d Q 1962
4th Q 1 960- 4th Q 1961
1st Q 1962- 2nd Q 1962
Anticipated
1st Q 1962- 1st Q 1963
4th Q 1961 - 4th Q 1962
3rd Q 1962 - 4th Q 1962
, „
increase of 500,000 carloadings plotted at 100; no change at 50; decrease of 500,000 carloadings at 0.
1963
Analytical Measures
35
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of
the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no
adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading indexes
Year and
month
Dl. Average workweek,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D6. Value of manufacturers'
new orders, durable goods
industries (21 industries)
1 -month
interval
3 -month
interval
Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations
a. 602 companies
4-quarter
interval
b. 15 industries
1-quarter
interval
D33. Profits,
Chicago PAA
(200
companies )
1-month
interval
1959
April
Mav
July
August
October
66.7
73.8
73.8
81.0
45.2
28.6
40.5
31.0
26.2
52.4
52.4
78.6
83.3
81.0
92.9
90.5
73.8
26.2
14.3
21.4
31.0
47.6
69.0
50.0
61.9
73.8
85.7
52.4
40.5
71.4
52.4
9.5
76.2
52.4
42.9
85.7
71.4
100.0
90.5
76.2
42.9
57.1
31.0
33.3
42.9
57.1
66.7
52.4
21.4
19.0
35.7
38.1
78.6
19.0
40.5
26.2
19.0
78.6
16.7
7.1
31.0
7.1
21.4
66.7
54.8
69.0
16.7
14.3
23.8
9.5
2.4
14.3
28.6
61.9
14.3
57.1
54.8
28.6
38.1
71.4
33.3
28.6
61.9
28.6
57.1
28.6
47.6
42.9
50.0
28.6
52.4
38.1
52.4
26.2
35.7
42.9
85.7
78.6
69.0
83.3
50.0
90.5
40.5
42.9
38.1
69.0
78.6
38.1
54.8
95.2"
90.5
81.0
92.9
69.0
78.6
45.2
78.6
81.0
81.0
21.4
52.4
47.6
78.6
52.4
59.5
57.1
59.5
73.8
57.1
57.1
57.1
28.6
33.3
90.5
76.2
81.0
61.9
66.7
76.2
61.9
61.9
61.9
42.9
47.6
11.9
78.6
76.2
92.9
26.2
38.1
28.6
r33.3
r73.8
P4-8
19.0
61.9
95.2
85.7
76.2
23.8
r!9.0
r31.0
pll.9
71.4
57.1
45.2
50.0
42.9
38.1
81.0
r33.3
r33.3
p66.7
42.9
61.9
42.9
61.9
38.1
52.4
r52.4
r64.3
P57.1
60.0
64
73.3
60
70.0
54
26.7
46
48
52
50
56
58
56
54
50
42
40
44
48
1960
January
May
July
October
November
50.0
44
33.3
40
23.3
40
66.7
48
46
36
40
44
42
44
39
34
34
34
28
30
1961
April
May
July
November .......
46.7
54
53.3
58
70.0
65
r56.7
52
27
31
37
46
50
48
42
51
50
47
50
44
1962
January
February
April
May
July
August
September
November. ......
December
66.7
(NA)
26.7
48
49
50
52
52
48
40
46
45
42
Analytical Measures
36
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of
the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no
adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Leading indexes — Continued
Year and
month
D34. Profits, D19. Index of stock prices,
mfg., FNCB
500 common stocks
(around 700
(82 industries)1
corporations )
1-quarter
interval
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
D5. Average weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs
(47 areas )
3 -month
interval
1-month
interval
86.0
65.1
80.8
54.1
35.3
55.2
81.4
42.4
10.5
53.5
57.0
73.2
86.0
85.5
77.9
70.9
51.2
68.0
66.3
36.0
20.9
26.2
64.0
57.0
50.0
50.0
73.1
50.0
53.8
61.5
50.0
57.7
61.5
53.8
53.8
57.7
53.8
46.2
57.7
73.1
61.5
53.8
57.7
53.8
57.7
53.8
57.7
46.2
91.5
55.3
63.8
83.0
36.2
30.9
45.7
29.8
50.0
17.0
51.1
91.5
80.9
89.4
83.0
87.2
63.8
40.4
25.5
23.4
6.4
17.0
53.2
78.7
28.5
11.2
33.5
52.4
36.5
75.9
32.9
76.5
15.3
23.5
89.4
80.7
27.1
11.8
27.6
41.2
52.4
50.6
63.5
38.8
36.5
42.4
76.5
93.8
69.2
42.3
46.2
53.8
50.0
57.7
46.2
46.2
42.3
23.1
46.2
26.9
53.8
53.8
46.2
46.2
50.0
46.2
38.5
57.7
34.6
42.3
15.4
30.8
34.0
54.8
10.6
47.9
38.3
37.2
55.3
17.0
68.1
42.6
36.2
53.2
83.3
26.2
40.5
14.9
29.8
38.3
19.1
34.0
21.3
45.7
36.2
46.8
87.0
96.3
86.0
72.6
81.1
40.2
42.1
81.1
39.6
45.7
87.8
56.1
96.3
96.3
95.1
93.9
70.7
57.3
57.9
54.9
55.5
62.2
72.6
52.4
38.5
69.2
80.8
65.4
53.8
46.2
50.0
76.9
53.8
38.5
30.8
65.4
46.2
76.9
73.1
80.8
57.7
50.0
53.8
69.2
69.2
42.3
46.2
57.7
59.6
31.9
80.9
40.4
48.9
58.5
51.1
61.7
46.8
78.7
74.5
19.1
46.8
68.1
61.7
66.0
53.2
61.7
68.1
61.7
80.9
87.2
66.0
38.3
26.2
74.4
48.2
9.1
1.2
1.2
67.7
78.0
34.8
6.7
39.6
37.8
32.9
0.0
1.2
1.2
8.5
67.1
31.1
73.1
34.6
46.2
38.5
53.8
23.1
30.8
42.3
50.0
57.7
2
80.8
61.5
53.8
42.3
50.0
42.3
42.3
23.1
23.1
42.3
2
76.9
57.4
93.6
38.3
51.1
36.2
16.0
70.2
55.3
44.7
44.7
68.1
87.2
78.7
29.8
12.8
36.2
44.7
72.3
53.2
1 -month
interval
3 -mo nth
interval
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
1959
55
February
April
May
72
July
August
September
October
November
46
45
1960
49
April
49
Nfey
July
43
September
October
November
44
1961
January *
February
44
April.
Mav
June
July
August
69
October
53
56
1962
51
February
March
April
Mav
July
August
October
November
December
56
46
1
The diffusion index is based on 86 components through January 1960; on 85 components, February 1960 to November 1960,
and on 82 components thereafter. 19 components and 5 composites, representing an additional 22 components, are shown in
the direction-of change table (table 6C).
November 15, 1962.
Analytical Measures
37
Table 4.-DIFFUSION INDEXES (PERCENT RISING) FOR 12 MAJOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT-Continued
Numbers are centered within intervals: 1-month figures are placed on latest month; 3-month figures are centered on the
middle month; 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed in the 1st month of
the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in indexes Dlla, D19, D23, and D33, which require no
adjustment, and D34 and D58, which are adjusted only for the index. Table 6 identifies the components for most of
the indexes shown, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
NBER Roughly Coincident indexes
Year and
month
D41. Number of employees
in nonagri cultural establishments (30 industries)
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D47. Index of industrial
production
(24 industries)
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D54. Sales of retail stores
(24 types of stores)
1-month
interval
3 -month
interval
D58. Index of
wholesale
prices (23
mf g . indus . )
1-month
interval
1959
February
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November .......
90.0
80.0
88.3
83.3
81.7
75.0
68.3
43.3
60.0
36.7
55.0
78.3
90.0
88.3
83.3
90.0
88.3
83.3
65.0
58.3
38.3
45.0
58.3
61.7
58.3
62.5
75.0
87.5
89.6
58.3
72.9
27.1
41.7
35.4
52.1
91.7
72.9
79.2
87.5
91.7
83.3
75.0
60.4
41.7
22.9
35.4
56.2
83.3
37.5
58.3
83.3
47.9
68.8
39.6
66.7
39.6
29.2
39.6
77.1
41.7
81.2
81.2
77.1
89.6
58.3
66.7
29.2
50.0
45.8
62.5
54.2
58.3
64.7
84.8
76.4
61.9
81.7
69.3
54.8
45.5
58.1
56.4
58.6
42.4
56.7
83.3
53.3
55.0
50.0
30.0
35.0
30.0
21.7
30.0
20.0
11.7
80.0
81.7
66.7
58.3
40.0
38.3
25.0
25.0
30.0
23.3
15.0
16.7
64.6
12.5
50.0
64.6
68.8
60.4
50.0
31.2
18.8
47.9
27.1
20.8
64.6
35.4
43.8
77.1
79.2
66.7
35.4
10.4
20.8
12.5
20.8
12.5
68.8
50.0
45.8
79.2
14.6
60.4
50.0
41.7
50.0
62.5
37.5
31.2
37.5
47.9
79.2
54.2
62.5
20.8
45.8
41.7
45.8
45.8
43.8
41.7
60.3
45.6
56.8
46.7
40.4
45.4
39.6
32.5
32.0
36.9
32.5
46.7
33.3
33.3
75.0
66.7
85.0
86.7
58.3
53.3
36.7
65.0
70.0
53.3
11.7
41.7
60.0
83.3
90.0
83.3
83.3
46.7
50.0
63.3
68.3
53.3
47.9
29.2
58.3
89.6
83.3
87.5
75.0
64.6
22.9
87.5
70.8
62.5
29.2
54.2
79.2
91.7
93.8
83.3
100.0
60.4
70.8
75.0
83.3
52.1
58.3
43.8
79.2
27.1
43.8
79.2
41.7
68.8
33.3
79.2
66.7
45.8
35.4
72.9
43.8
58.3
54.2
70.8
83.3
35.4
75.0
70.8
89.6
70.8
38.6
41.3
54.6
59.7
49.1
51.9
50.4
52.1
r58.1
r41.2
r36.9
53.3
33.3
81.7
81.7
90.0
70.0
63.3
48.3
r40.0
r25.0
P45.0
60.0
75.0
91.7
88.3
80.0
68.3
r55.0
r30.0
p23.3
18.8
70.8
60.4
70.8
70.8
62.5
r66.7
r52.1
r62.5
p25.0
33.3
43.8
83.3
81.2
75.0
r79.2
r64.6
r62.5
P45.8
62.5
62.5
62.5
60.4
39.6
22.9
83.3
r56.2
r54.2
P50.0
60.4
64.6
91.7
81.2
39.6
37.5
r62.5
r85.4
p64.6
66.8
41.3
63.3
48.8
66.4
47.6
33.0
30.3
34.2
39.0
1960
February
March
April
teiy
June
July
August
September
October
December
1961
January
April
May
June
July
Augus t
October
November
1962
fferch
April
May
June
July
September
38
Analytical Measures
Table 5.-DIFFUSION INDEXES, ACTUAL AND ANTICIPATED, FOR 4 MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIES: JANUARY 1959 TO PRESENT
Numbers are centered within intervals: 4-quarter figures are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter figures are placed
in the 1st month of the 2d quarter, "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary.
Year and
month
D36. New orders, durable manufactures
(400 companies)
4-quarter
interval
D35. Net sales,
manufactures
(800 companies)
4- quarter
interval
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
D48. Freight car loadings
(19 manufactured
commodity groups)
4-quarter
interval
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
D61. New plant and
equipment expenditures.
(16 industries)
1-quarter
interval
Change in
total (000)
Actual
Anticipated
1959
February
March..
April
May
84
88
82
84
52.6
78.9
-173
76
87
76
84
42.1
84.2
-73
78
82
76
77
57.9
89.5
+8
68
84
64
82
26.3
57.9
-146
61
82
58
76
31.6
68.4
+96
53
74
51
68
31.6
78.9
-103
50
70
50
68
21.1
50.0
-279
60
68
62
68
26.3
42.1
-212
72
82
72
78
36.8
89.5
-28
74
83
73
78
68.4
73.7
+78
82
88
82
86
(NA)
89.5
+125
81
86
78
82
89.5
+62
80
88
76
84
94.7
-67
80
74
89.5
+93
74
70
JUly
September
October
68.8
84.4
81.2
87.5
75.0
84.4
65.6
71.9
75.0
84.4
71.9
71.9
56.2
71.9
34.4
43.8
28.1
37.5
46.9
53.1
56.2
62.5
59.4
65.6
65.6
62.5
68.8
68.8
1960
February
March
April
May
July
October
November
1961
March..
April
May
June
July..
September
1962
January
April
May
July
•October
65.6
71.9
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT
A.—(Dl) Average Workweek of Production Workers, Manufacturing
3 -month spans
1961
1960
21 industry components
fl
03
t-s
,0
fnv
& <$Q S
js HO2
S
-p
o
O
>
o
S3
o
<D
Q
1
All manufacturing industries
1
fc
1
!H
1
c!
cd
K>
>>
1
,0
<u
Cn
£
1
rH
3
i-'o
bfl CX -p
3 CD O
<J CO O
>
o
O 0)
S Q
C
,Q
^
JH
«i £i fii 3i
•P
>
0
C
!, t
i;3 J:j i^j i,
irt
<l)
?H
?
.cd i ^
S <U
S ^
^
<tj co
3 £ a«
> i C H
bDCU-P
>
0
**-H*M$
^ ^ H ^ r ^ C i - l b f l a
^ g ^ g g ^ ^ C ^
1962
c S r O ^ ^ ^ s C H b a a - p ^ o
£&&%£223%8&a
i i i i i i i i i i i i
- P > O C , a £ - i h > > G r - l h O Q 4
.8g&£££3£Z£3&
50 31 7 21 67 55 6 9 17 14 24 10 2 14 55 95 90 81 93 69 79 45 79 81 81 21 19 62 95 86 76 24 19 31 12
- - 4 - + 4 - 0 _ - - C
+ +
+ + - - o o
DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Stone, clay, and glass products
Fabricated metal products
_
44_
_
_
_
t-
_
_
_
_
o
44-
+
o
4-
+
44-
f
0
+
-
-
-
4-f
0
4 - 4 - Q - - - + 0
_ _ 4 - _ 4 - _
4-
-
+
--
_
+
-
o
+
- 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 + - +
0-
+
-
-
-
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - -
-
_
_
_
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - Q
+
0
4-
+
4-
4-
+
o
-
+ +
+ +
0
+
-
+
+
- 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - - - Q
0
+
-
Electrical machinery
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
4-
+ +
-
-
-
-
-
_ _ _ _ 4 - 4 - - - o
+ + _+ + - - -
+
-
+
-
-
-
-
-
_
_
0
-
4 - - +
+ + -
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - _
_ 4 - -
+
- 4 - 4 - 4 _
- - + + 00_ 4 - _ 4 - 4 - + 4 -
- 4 - - 4 _ _ 4 - 4
- - - +
... +
- _ 4 - 4
4 - 4 - 4 - 0
+ +0+ + .
- 4 - -
_ 0 - - - - + . . _ - - -
D
£L
^
^.
£
NONDURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
0
Leather and leather products
4- = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
0
0
-
+
-
-
-
-
4-
+
4+
+
4+
Q
^iH
ih
-
-
o
o
+
-
o
4-
-
-
-
-
- 4 - 4 - 4 0 + +
- 4 - 4 - 4 44 -
O
O
4 -
+ +
- + +
4 - 4 -
4 - - Q
+
0
+
+
+-
+
+
0
-
+
-0
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
- - - - 4 - 4 -
_
!
_
.
_
--
- -
+
" " + t + * "
+
+
+
0
+
+
- - -
+
0
+
0
4
4
4
+ +
- 4 4 - 4
- 4 - 4 -
-4 - 4
4 +
-
+
4
_
+
- 4
- - 4
- 4
0
-
^
J^>
§
_
+
_
-
-
c/)
_o- _
+ _
- _ - _
Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
VO
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
B.—(D6) Value of Manufacturers' New Orders, Durable Goods Industries
3 -month spans
1961
1960
21 industry components
fl ,0 ^ to >> C r-j bfl 0<
c d Q j c d O j g i r j d g c
h > f i < S < i S o | - 3 < i « c
I
i
I
i
I
i
I
I
)
- P > O £ r a b f - l r > > £ r
-P
D o
o O
i
H b
1962
> 0 £ , Q f H k > a e 3 r - l b D P 4 - P > O
o g j
d O j g i Q i c |t i h j J d g j o O d )
3 < 5 c o O 2 ; Q
! 3 Q ^ ( 2 t , S < l l 2 ^
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
I
i
p P 4 - p > o G , a f H f - i f > > p 3 r - i b f l P <
5 5 a ) a 3 < u t f l J P < S i d ^ r f < u
2 Q ^ C « H S < « J 2 > - 3 ^ < * l C O
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
g g S ^ ^ S ^ g ^ ^ I c S
Percent rising
Primary nonferrous metals
52 57 29 48 43 50 29 52 38 52 26 36 43 33 90 76 81 62 67 76 62 62 62 43 48 43 62 43 62 38 52 52 64 57
»-
4 - 4 - - - _ 4 - _ 4 - - 4 + + + - - + -
Other electrical equipment*
Aircraft
Other transportation equipment*
Stone, clay, and glass products
..
• •
+
+
+
4-
4-
+
+
+
..
+
+
4-
+
-
_
+
+ + + - +
+
. +
4 - 4 - 4 _ - _
+
-
4-
+
+
+
+
.
44 - 4 4 - - - 4 - 4 - -
4 - 4 - 4 -
+
+ ' + - +
- 4 -
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - -
+
+
+
_
_
+
+
+ _
4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - _
4-444 - 4 - 4 444 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 44 - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - - - -
4-
4.
4-4-
_ - + + +
4 - _ - - _ _
+
+
+
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 + + . -
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
_
-
+
4-44-4-
4 - - 4 - - _ 4 - -
+
~ " ; "
4 - 4 - 4 - 4 44_ - 4 - 4 - - - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
4 - 4 + - - - + + +
4 - 4 - _ _ - _ 4 - 4 - _
Office machines*
. 0
+
4 4 - - 4 - - - 4 + + _
h
_
4 - - - -
+
+
4+
+
4-.-
+
+
+
+
t +
4+
+
+ •+•
44 - _
- - 4 - 4 -
- - - 4 - 4 - 4 - - .
444_ + + + + _ _
4_
_
+
4+
+
c
o
""
+
+ m rising; o « unchanged; - * falling. Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
^Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
1
Includes durable industries not available separately.
~
.
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
C.-(D19) Index of Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks
3 -month spans
1961
1960
24 industry components *
C
1
r
a k f - l > l C i - l b l ) C X - P > O
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-P > 0
G , Q ^ h > > f 3 r H b f l & i
S O < D c t f ( L ) _ n i P j j r i : 3 : 3 : 3 < l >
Z Q H a f e S ^ S ^ ^ ^ c O
C
,
Q
F
H
^
>
s
C
r
1962
H
b
D
a
-
P
>
0
•1 ^ f1 c 1^ ^1 ^ 1i ^ 1 » ^
1 ^1 W1 ( S
1 ^ 1 ( ^1
-p
>
0
C
^3
^1
PH
> » C r H
b 0 p 4
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
o S Q ^ f e S - S ' ^ l ? ! ? ^ ^
57 27 12 28 41 52 51 64 39 36 42 76 94 96 96 95 94 71 57 58 55 56 62 73 52 40 38 33 0 1 1 8 67 31
+ + + + + + + + + + + +
+
i h't *
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturing )
+
_ _ _
+
Publishing
+
+
+ +
+
+
+ +
+
+
+ +
+
+
+ +
+
Drugs
Wtetal fabricating
^
P.
Natural gas distributors
+ + + + +
+
+
-
-
_
,
-
-
-
+
+ + + +
+ +
+
+
+ +
+ + + + + + +
_
+ + +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ + + + +
+ +
+
4-
+ +
+
+
. . • I , ,
+
+
- _ . _ _
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
H-
+
-J+
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
+ +
+ + + + +
_ _ _ _
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
-
-
-
+ - H
+
+
4
+
+
+
+
•+•
-
-
-
-
-
-
_ _
+ + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + +
+ + + + + + + + + + + +
- - _
+
_
+
_
+
—
+ +
+ +
_
_
4-
—
+
_
+
- _ - - • ! - _ - _ - + + +
+ SB rising; o • unchanged; - « falling. Series components are not seasonally adjusted.
1
The 24 components shown here include 19 of the more important industries and 5 composites representing an additional 22 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index.
2
Based on 86 industries through January 1960; on 85 industries, February 1960 to November 1960; and on 82 industries thereafter.
^
«-»
o*
+
+
+
+ -
+ + +
+
+ + + + + + + +
+ + -+••+• + + + +
+
+ +
•*• +
-+
+ + + + + + + + + + + + - - - - - - -
s
o
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
D.~(D23) Index of Industrial Materials Prices
3 -month spans
1960
13 industrial materials components
1962
1961
f l l t f l l f f l l i I! Ill III!! I!
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
46 54 54 46 46 50 46 38 58 35 42 15 31 46 77 73 81 58 50 54 69 69 42 46 58 62 54 42 50 42 42 23 23 42 77
Percent rising
+ +
All industrial materials
+ _ _ _ _ _ + + + _ _
+ +
_ _ _ _
+ + + + +
-_
—
—
+
4"
+
O
O
O
O
O
—
+ +
—
+ + _
Tin
i
+ +
+ +
+ +
(~\"h }
Zinc ( Ib . )
+ + + 4 - 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 —
—
—
—
—
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
"
^
~
>
D
n
_ . ' .. ,' / , N
r
a
r
• - 6-
Wool tops ( Ib . )
Hides (Ib )
Rosin ( 100 Ib . )
Rubber ( Ib )
Tallow ( Ib . )
+
*'
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
^ata for November 15.
+
+
+
+
+
+ + + + + + +
«
+ +
+ + + + + + + + + + + _
+
+
+ + +
+
+
p^
+
^_°_
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
O
O
O
O
O
O
O
0
_ _ _ _
++
0
+
O
O
+ 0+ 0+
_ +
_ +
_ _+ _+ _+ _+ _+ _+ +
+ + + _
o
O
+ +
Series components are not seasonally adjusted.
»-»
0
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
E.—(D5) Average Weekly Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, State Programs
.p
3 -month spans
£H
Oj
1960
26 area components
<D
PH ^
&
CO
1961
C
,Q
k
£H
>*
C
r-H
bD
CX
-P
>
O
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
- P > O C r Q i H i H > > f l r - l t » D D 4
O Z Q h ^ C r - t J ^ ^ l s ^ K - f r H y ^ r Q
1962
jlllllllllilHltlllfllll
79 83 26 40 15 30 38 19 34 21 46 36 47 47 68 62 66 53 62 68 62 81 87 66 38 68 87 79 30 13 36 45 72 53
47 labor market areas ^
4- NA NA NA -
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
NORTHEAST REGION
7
16
11
1
21
8
23
Boston.
Buffalo*
Newark
New York
+
+
+
+ + + +
+
4 . 4 . 4 - 4 .
+
Philadelphia*
Pittsburgh**
Providence**
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4.4.4.
+
4-4-
4
.
4
.
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4.
_ + +
+
+
+
-
4 . 4 . 4 .
4 . ^ 4 .
+
+ + + + +
+
4-4-
+
+
4.4.
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4 - 4 - 4 -
+
+
+
+
+
4.
+ +
+
+
+
NORTH CENTRAL REGION
3
18
in
4- NA NA NA
26
Detroit**
Kansas City
Mi Iwauke e
Minneapolis
St Louis
on
A+1 nn + fl
17
14
Baltimore
Dallas
Houston
_
o
-
+
+
+
rt
^
o'
4-
Cine innat i
Cleveland
25
22
15
13
9
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
- - H -
+
+
+
- +
-+
+
- 4 - - + _ _ 4 -
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
4-
+
4.
4-
+
+
4.
4.
+
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
4.
4 . 4 . 4 - 4 .
_ 4 - 4 - 4 -
+
+
+
+
+
4.
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
f
-
-
4.
4.
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
O
+
+
- - - H -
-NANANA
-
+ +
+
+ _ 4 - 4 - 4 -
+ 4 - _ ~
+
-
+ - +
4 - _ +
+
_
SOUTH REGION
-NANANA
-
-
-
-
-
-
+ +
+
- - 4 _ 4 - 4 -
+
4 - - 4.4.
+
+ +
4 . 4 . 4 .
4 -
_
_
+
4.
+
+
4 - 4 - - _ -
4-
+
+
+
_
_
- -
WEST REGION
2
24
6
19
Los Anseles
Portland
4-
-
4.
-
4-
_
_j_
4.
4-
_ 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -
Seattle
- = rising; o = unchanged; + = falling.
Because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises, it is inverted to show a comparable activity pattern.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
NA = not available.
*Denotes areas of substantial unemployment (6 percent or more) in October 1962 as designated by BES. **Denotes areas of substantial (6 percent or more)
andipersistent unemployment in October 1962 as designated by BES.
The percent rising is based on 47 labor market areas. Directions of change are shown separately for only the largest 26.
CO
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
F.~(D41) Number of Employees in Nonagricultural Establishments
1-month spans
30 industry components
fl,a
1960
^ ^ > j c J i - j b p a 4 - p >
1961
o
£ £ S ^ : S 3 3 ! $ < S : § Q
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
i
O C , Q j H ^ > > C J H b f l P 4 - P >
& % & g % £ 2 Z 3 & 8 &
c ^ > ^ ^ >
>
1962
:
a H b D a 4 +
' > o
£&£%£Z23%8£a
1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
O
fl^2
£-I£H
^ C r - l b O f t - P
>
Q H ^ f i H S < s { S | - 3 ^ « a ! c / D O S
!ll!!lll!l!l
57 83 53 55 50 30 35 30 22 30 20 12 33 33 75 67 85 87 58 53 37 65 70 53 33 82 82 90 70 63 48 40 25 45
4-
+
Q
+
-
+
+
+
-O-
-
O
+
+
-
-
OO
-
-
+
O
Lumber and wood products
~
.
y
"
P
**
00
+
+
-
+
-
+
O
+
+
+
+
+
-O
O +
+
+
-
-+
-OO
+
O+
+
+
-
+
-
-
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
0-0
+
+
o
+
o
-
o
-
0
+
O
O
O
-
+
-
0
-
-
-
-
4-
+
+
+
+
4-
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
D
po
+
-
-
-
-
+
+
- -
- O
+
-
-
O
-
-
-
-
- -
+
+
+
+
O
-
-
+
+
+
- 4 -
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
0
+
0
+
-
+
+
+
---
+
0
+
0 0 -
+
+
+
^
«-»
n
Textile mill products
Paper and allied products
0 -
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
+
0 +
O +
0 - + + O
0
+
-
+
+
+
O
+
0 0 -
+
0
0
0
-
-
+
+
-
-
-
-
-
-
0
-
-
+
- - 0
--
- -
+
+
0 - -
+
-
0
-
+
- +
+
- - O
+
+
-
+
O
O
-
- +
+
-
0
0
-
C/5
C
>~t
+
0
0
0
0
+
+
+
Service
+
+ + + + + + +
+
-
+
_
-
+
00
0 +
+ +
- f - - -
+
+
-
+
+
- - 4 - -
+
+
+
+
+
+
--O
+
+
O
+
O
+
+
O
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
--
+
- -
+ + +
+
+
+
0
0
+
-
--
+
+
0
+
-
-
0
-
_
-
4
-
+
OO
Q
-
-O
+
+
+
+
^ + o ^ ^ ^ t l
t o
-+ O
0
+ » rising; o » unchanged; - » falling.
+
-
Wholesale trade
+
+
o
+
+
+ + + o
+
+
+
M-I-TV -! f-.ff
Retail trade
O
Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
O
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
G.-(D47) Index of Industrial Production
1 -month spans
1961
1960
24 industry components
3,0
1
Percent rising1
in
?H
>i
3
rH
txO
Oi
-P
>
O
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
3,0
1962
^ ^ > s C ! r H b O C l 4 - P >
0
d ^ 3
f-t
fn
> s C H b f l O u - P
>
O
65 12 50 65 69 60 50 31 19 48 27 21 48 29 58 90 83 88 75 65 23 88 71 62 19 71 60 71 71 62 67 52 62 25
All industrial production
+
-
-
+
_
_
-
+
-
0
-
-
-
-
-
«.
_ +
DURABLE GOODS
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
+
+
+
+
+ +
+
+
+
+ +
+
+
+
+
-i-
+
+
+
-
+
+ + + + + + + +
. . .
+
+
+
+
+ +
— +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ +
+ +
+
+ +
+
+
+ +
+ +
+ +
_
+
+ + + +
_ +
+ +
+ + +
+ + +
+ + +
+
+ + + +
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ + + + +
+
Furniture and fixtures
+
+
+
—
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
*1 '+ "+ "-
+
+ + + + + _
+ + + + 0
+ + + + _
_
+
+
+
+
-
+
0
+
-J-
+ +
+
+
0
--
+ _
+
+
--
+
4-
+ + + + + + + + - + - + o NA.
+
+ +
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+
NONDURABLE GOODS
+
+
+
_|_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-f
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+ -
+
0
+
+ +
+
+
+
4-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ +
+
_ +
+ +
+ _ + _ - ( + - + + +
+
+ -
+
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
°
+
- + + - + + -o
-NA
- + - + - + + -NANA
_ 0 _ - h - h _ _ o N A N A
o
-
+_
+
+
+
—
+
+
-
+
+
4-
+
+
—
+
- - f O — +
O —
+
+
- + - + + +
- 4 - -
+ - » - - * - - * -
+
+
+
+
0
+ o
+ + +NA
+
+
-
+ H - + - N A N A
.... o o
- + - + - + - + N A
+ + - - - + -NANA
_
0
0
+
_ +
+ _ + _
+
+
•*•
+
4--H
MINERALS
Coal
_
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - - falling.
NA = Not available.
_
-
-
f
_
+
+
+
_
+
+_
+
+
-
+
-
+
-
+
+
-*-
-
+
-.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by issuing agency before the direction of change is determined.
*TheAireCti°yf,fange is/h?^ for industry groups where actual data for separate industries are not available; however, estimates for each industry
are used to compute the percent rising. The percent rising is based on 24 industry components.
-Liuus^ry
^<
r^
O
Table 6.-DIRECTION OF CHANGE IN SERIES COMPONENTS OVER SPECIFIED TIME SPANS AND PERCENT OF SERIES RISING: JANUARY 1960 TO PRESENT-Continued
H.--(D54) Sales of Retail Stores
3 -month spans
1960
24 retail store components
fl ,0
^
fc
>>
fl H
1961
bj> 'Qi -P
>
0
g- i P f>i io lei s! i ' affi ic 'hi .! li> .» isH iri -al i sb psi Dai4
£fi2«e44£Jlgl£
r
C 3
f
1962
a f c f c > » d H t i O C X - P > 0
£&&3&ZZ3%8&£
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
+s
>
0
G
f>
h
fn
>»
0
H 'bp
P<
y O Q ) c t i < D j r f C u j d d d J i < i )
O 2 Q H a f i S < S » ^ ^ < c O
tii i i i i ^ i j%i 8i
^
-P
>
0
&i £i
^ j f i o B ^ a h ^ f * * 13 3 I «
b
o
a
j
cd
<
u
i
s
C
^
J
f
l
•
C D S S Q i - j f e g ^ g l - D »^ ^ 05
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
58 38 48 79 54 62 21 46 42 46 46 44 42 35 73 44 58 54 71 83 35 75 71 90 71 60 65 92 81 40 38 62
*35 65
,
Eat ing places
Department stores
Women' s apparel stores
+
~ +
+
+
+ + + +
+ + + -
. . . . . ... . • • • .
~
+ +
+ + + + +
+ +
+
_ _ _ + + +
__
- - + _ +
__
+
0
+
-
+
+
+
+
-
. • •«
-0
,
+ + + + _ - _ + + _ _ _
_ _ _ + _ + __
+ +
__
Shoe stores
+
+
+
+
0
-f
_ .
+
+
_
+
+
- h +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+ + + - - +
,
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
~
+ +
+ +
_
+
+
+
,
-
_ -
0
+
+
+
+ + + _ +
+ - + +
+ +
+
+
+
o
Appliance and radio stores
+
Hardware stores • • • • . • • . • «
.
Motor vehicle dealers
Tire and battery dealers
*
+
+ + + + + +
_ _ - . + + + +
+ + +
+
+ + +
+
+
-*•
+
+ + + +
+
,
,
,
+ +
,
+
.
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Jewelry stores
Liquor stores
Other nondurable soods stores
+ = rising; o = unchanged; - = falling.
+ +
+ + +
+ + + -i-
--
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
^+ +
+
+
- - - + + +-+ + +
+ +
+
+
+
•+•
+
o
—
-
+
+
+
+
+
o
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before the direction of change is determined.
r^
^
O
Cyclical Patterns
47
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Nov.
• July
July
> May
Index
Index
1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Reference trough dates
I I II I I I I l I I
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and indus.
bldgs. 2
Reference trough dates
105 r-
1. Avg. workweek, prod,
workers, mfg.
100*
*100
29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg. 1
95
150
140
130
24. Mfrs,' new orders,
mach. and equip. Indus.
120
110
100*
-I 90
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
0
+6
+12
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
*Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100*.
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
2
For the 1949, 1954, and 1958 cycles a 3-term moving average is shown.
Cyclical Patterns
48
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
•••••••••••••••••••^••^••••••^••^•••••••••^••••••••^
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Nov.
• July
July
> May
Index
I NTT M I I I I
I I M NTT III
M 111
M II
Reference trough dates
150
140
Index
1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
1957 - Oct. I960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
13. New business incorporations
17. Price per unit of
labor cost
130
100*
90 L
*•••*•
180
170
23. Industrial materials
prices
160
150
19. Stock prices, 500
common stocks
140
130
120
110
*100
90
80*- I I I M I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I ! I I I I I I I I I I I I I I
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
I IIIIIII III II IIIIIII IIIII II II I I II IIIII IIII I
+30
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at *100".
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
49
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS--Con.
CHART 4
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
I II| I II II|II IIIM IIM jII
Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
> July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
• May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
Index
Index
Reference trough dates
43. Unemployment rate, total
[inverted]
M I I I I I I III
-<- Reference trough dates
105 r
41. Employees in nonagri
establishments
55. Wholesale prices, except
farm prod, and foods
MOO
95 L-
•6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
-12
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from reference troughs
*Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "I" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100".
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
1
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
Cyclical Patterns
50
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
M |
• Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
' July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
• May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
I II M
| II I I I | | I I I
I I II
Index
Reference trough dates
I I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I M
Reference trough dates
51. Bank debits outside NYC
100*
100*
95
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
-6
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at "100*.
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
Cyclical Patterns
51
COMPARISONS OF REFERENCE CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••^•^•••••^•••••MaB^
Percent of reference peak levels measured from the reference peak date preceding the
trough of each of 4 recent business cycles to 30 months after the trough of each cycle.
PERIOD COVERED
Nov. 1948 - Apr. 1952 (Reference trough: Oct. 1949)
• July 1953 - Feb. 1957 (Reference trough: Aug. 1954)
July 1957 - Oct. 1960 (Reference trough: Apr. 1958)
' May 1960 - present1 (Reference trough: Feb. 1961)
62. Wage and salary cost
per unit of output, all mfg.
Index
120r
100*
61. Business expenditures,
new plant and equipment
67. Bank rates, short-term
business loans
100*
64. Mfrs. inventories,
all mfg. industries
90L
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
0
+6
+12
+18
Months from reference troughs
+24
+30
* Reference peak level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the reference peak is
set at "100". For series with an MCD of "3* or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is set at *100*.
For quarterly series, the reference peak quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
See table 1 for latest month in current period. Percent changes for this month and the comparable months of previous expansions are
shown in table 7.
2
Last two quarters anticipated.
52
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS
Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dates to 30 months later.
Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of~
1958
1961
1949
1954
Index
1 I I II I I M I I I M I I I I I M I I I I I II I I
Index
-<- Specific trough dates
9. Construction contracts
awarded, comm. and
indus. bldgs.3
I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I | I
—<- Specific trough dates
1. Avg. workweek,
prod, workers, mfg.
105
- 120
100*
29. New pvt. housing units
authorized, local bldg.
-.160
24. Mfrs/ new orders,
mach. and equip. Indus. 1
120 -
100*
*100
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
*Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
3-See appendix B for specific dates.
2
See table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
3
For the 1949 and 1958 cycles, a 3-term moving average is shown. For the current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in
table 1.
Cyclical Patterns
53
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
CHART S
Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED
I I 111(1111111) l l l I l l I l l
From specific trough dates1 to 30 months later.
Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of--
I
I
index
I
-<- Specific trough dates
1949
1954
Index
Specific trough dates
115
150
140
17. Price per unit of
labor cost
13. New business /
incorporations
^
110
130
105
100*
200
180
23. Industrial materials
prices
160
19. Stock prices, 500 /%
common stocks
140
140
120
120
100*
*100
1 11
1 11
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
I 1 I i I II II II II II II II I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I M
+30
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
+30
*Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
3-See appendix B for specific dates.
2
See table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
54
Cyclical Patterns
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS»Con.
Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
I I t I I I M I I 1 M 1 I! I I I I I I I I I I I I
PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dates1 to 30 months later.2 Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of--
1958
1961
1949
1954
Index
115
Index
Specific trough dates
11 | 11 I I I 11 I I I I I I I I I 11T |1 1
e Specific trough dates
43. Unemployment rate, total
[inverted]
41. Employees in nonagri.^
establishments
110
105
*100
135
47. Industrial production
130
125
120
115
110
105
100*
MOO
I I I I I 11 11 1 1 1 I
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
+30
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
*Specific trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance1' (MCD) of "1" or "2", the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100*. For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100". MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
iSee appendix B for specific dates.
2
See table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
Cyclical Patterns
55
COMPARISONS OF SPECIFIC CYCLE PATTERNS-Con.
Percent of specific trough levels measured from the specific trough date of
each series in 4 recent expansions to 30 months after each specific trough.
PERIOD COVERED
From specific trough dates to 30 months later.
Specific trough dates are the dates each series actually begins
the expansion identified with the reference trough of—
1949
1954
T
Index
• Specific trough dates
130
1958
1961
125
I I II I I I I I I I I I M I I I I I I I I | M M I I
120
Specific trough dates
50. GNP in 1954 dollars
115
110
105
100*
150
53. Labor income in mining,
mfg., and construction
140
130
120
110
100*
MOO
I I 1 I I I I I 1 I I I M I I I I I I I I I I I I M I
+6
+12
+18
+24
Months from specific troughs
+30
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
Months from specific troughs
* Spec! fie trough level. For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "1", the figure for the specific trough is set
at "100". For series with an MCD of "3" or more, the average of the 3 months centered on the specific trough month is set at "100". For
quarterly series, the specific trough quarter is set at "100".
MCD numbers are shown in appendix C.
3-See appendix B for specific dates.
2
See table 1 for latest month in current period.
Percent changes for this month and the comparable months after the specific
troughs of previous expansions are shown in table 9.
current cycle, changes are based on the low (L) shown in table 1.
Cyclical Patterns
56
Table /.--PERCENT OF REFERENCE PEAK LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE REFERENCE TROUGH DATES
IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64
and 66), the figure for the reference peak month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series
2
> 3 > 6, ?> 9> 13> 14, 17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak month is
used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference peak quarter. See also
MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Months
after
reference
trough1
Percent of reference peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in —
July
1921
July
1924
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
20
19
19
NA
94.7
58.3
96.8
45.2
36.9
100.8
111.0
117.1
70.3
50.0
33.3
20
20
209.5
177.8
121.7
125.3
92.3
91.1
19
42.4
115.6
19
80.9
97.0
19
20
20
20
19.6
NA
106.8
73.2
20
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
93.5
88.0
70.1
102.3
115.4
141.0
100.0
82.2
77.8
101.0
111.8
79.2
100.0
98.2
106.0
38.4
17.9
91.0
136.0
168.3
116.7
130.0
111.5
112.4
127.5
114.5
114.0
113.6
18.5
76.1
124.2
146.0
108.7
99.9
105.3
67.8
91.8
95.4
140.0
134.5
99.3
129.3
NA
136.2
93.6
105.3
NA
218.7
95.4
221.3
NA
30.6
66.2
93.3
NA
75.2
92.1
111.3
108.0
140.9
129.2
92.4
102.7
197.8
115.9
86.9
102.2
121.7
101.0
88.7
102.4
101.7
91.2
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
147.9
125.1
110.4
20
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
119.8
115.2
20
20
20
18
18
20
20
20
89.3
NA
109.1
NA
NA
93.2
NA
106.5
96.7
NA
104.1
115.7
NA
118.1
112.3
101.9
106.0
NA
115.1
110.3
NA
126.4
114.2
102.7
80.6
0.2
63.9
63.7
NA
47.1
61.4
70.4
99.1
71.7
96.9
102.4
NA
97.0
101.1
102.6
106.3
113.4
119.6
122.8
1U.4
126.6
120.0
113.5
103.7
66.3
106.7
111.3
106.9
121.7
113.5
108.6
102.0
77.1
107.1
109.0
104.9
115.1
111.3
103.2
101.9
92.9
108.7
110.0
106.6
120.9
111.0
108.0
20
71.2
94.2
92.6
84.8
96.3
111.2
105.4
101.9
99.6
15
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
106.6
111.9
88.3
101.8
20
19
19
76.7
NA
NA
94.4
NA
NA
89.4
NA
NA
88.3
72.6
58.5
98.1
99.7
115.9
103.8
123.3
168.3
101.9
105.5
134.7
99.3
95.4
117.4
97.8
104.0
112.0
18
87.3
92.8
67.3
94.6
116.3
105.4
111.0
93.3
June
1938
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started..
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space 2 ...
13. Number of new business incorporations
14. Current liabilities of business failures
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin29. Index of new private housing units authorNBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
establishments
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
51. Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
54 . Sales of retail stores
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
1
62. Wage and salary cost per unit of output,
66. Consumer installment debt
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities (Q)
120.2
NA Not available.
1
Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
Cyclical Patterns
57
Table 8.--PERCENT CHANGE FROM REFERENCE TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER TH5 REFERENCE
TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, 55, 62, 64
and 66), the figure for the reference trough month is used as the base. For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series
2, 3, 6, 7, 9, 13, 14, 17, 24, 29, 51, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference trough'month is
used as the base. The base for quarterly series (series 49, 50, 61, and 67) is the reference trough quarter.
See
also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Months
after
reference
trough1
Percent change from reference trough of expansion
beginning in —
July
1921
July
1924
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
20
19
19
NA
NA
NA
+5.9
+10.7
+19.0
+2.7
+51.8
+65.1
-5.2
+23.0
+5.1
+3.0
+7.2
+2.5
+4.4
-2.2 +29.9 +13.2 +20.6
+41.4 H10. 3 +20.4 +30.6
+2.0
-10.5
+22.7
20
20
H96.7
+8.6
+35.2
-7.5
-12.4
aoo.o
+51.4 +82.0 +39.9 +31.3
+44.8 -19.0
-6.7 +33.0
+24.3
+26.3
19
+55.4 +66.5 +30.9 +54.3 +54.1 +43.8 +50.7 +38.2
+7.2
19
+11.8
+31.0
+6.6
-8.7
19
20
20
20
+16.2
+43.4 +14.4 +168.1 +26.6
NA
NA
+47.7 +19.7
+59.6 +37.5
-5.1
+8.5
+35.6
+72.0
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started. .
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
+81.6
+1.5
+18.7
-14.4
+40.8
+7.0
-3.0 +15.5
+7.7
+3.9
+56.4 +39.5
+15.9 +16.2
-9.9
+4.0
-9.7
-4.4
+18.5
14. Current liabilities of business failures
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
NA
NA
+44.4 +30.8
+75.0 +11.6
NA
+66.9
-2.2
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin20
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
+55.0
+49.2
+15.0
20
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
+17.8
+19.6
20
20
20
18
18
20
20
20
+29.6
NA
+60.0
NA
NA.
+20.3
+25.9
+11.2
+11.4
NA
+27.5
+18.4
NA
+21.9
+12.9
+4.0
+10.4
NA
+24.5
+9.9
NA
+16.3
+11.6
+2.7
+17.9
+18.4
+34.5
+26.3
NA
+23.4
+24.9
+24.6
+10.6
+27.6
+43.2
+16.3
NA
+16.1
+13.5
+24.0
+12.0
KL36.0
+30.7
+27.0
+16.0
+31.8
+25.4
+13.9
+7.4
+49.8
+17.3
+13.4
+10.1
+19.8
+13.8
+9.5
+6.3
+36.4
+24.7
+11.7
+9.1
+18.8
+11.7
+6.8
+4.0
+25.0
+15.6
+10.9
+8.7
+18.1
+10.2
+12.2
20
+13.0
+3.1
-0.5
+16.5
+1.7
+17.1
+6.2
+2.4
-0.2
15
NA.
NA
NA
NA
NA
+33.3
+17.2
+10.0
+9.2
20
19
19
-14.8
NA
NA
-8.2
NA
NA
-9.2
NA
NA
+20.5
+22.6
+22.4
+8.8
-5.5
+0.5
+5.4 +34.8 +11.9
+24.3 +35.6 +30.3
-6.5
+0.2
+16.4
-3.7
+6.5
+8.3
18
-19.0
+5.8
+24.9
-13.6
+10.4
+28.5
+0.4
29. Index of new private housing units author -
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagri cultural
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
51 Bank debits outside NYC 343 centers
55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and
62. Wage and salary cost per unit of output,
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
19 cities ( Q)
-3.1
+15.8
NA Not available.
•"•Based on period from February 1961 (current trough) to latest month for which data are available.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
58
Cyclical Patterns
Table 9.--PERCENT OF SPECIFIC PEAK LEVELS AND PERCENT CHANGE FROM SPECIFIC TROUGH LEVELS AS MEASURED AT
DESIGNATED MONTHS AFTER THE SPECIFIC TROUGH DATES IN THE 9 MOST RECENT EXPANSIONS
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MOD) of "1" or "2" (series 1, 19, 23, 41, 43, 47, 52, and 53), the
figure for the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base. For series with an MOD of "3" or more (series 9, 13,
17, 24, 29, and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the specific peak (trough) month is used as the base.
The base for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the specific peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
Selected series
Months
after
specific
trough1
July
1921
July
1924
Nov.
1927
Mar.
1933
June
1938
Oct.
1949
Aug.
1954
Apr.
1958
Feb.
1961
Percent of specific peak prior to reference expansion
beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
22
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
23. Index of industrial materials prices
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin-
NA
95.2
93.7
71.1
94-9
NSC
98.8
98.5
97.8
3
17
20
19
24
22
45.2
83.0
NA
85.2
65.6
108.3
95.4
NA
126.1
82.1
105.1
101.8
NA
NSC
58.4
15.0
61.2
NA
31.8
67.6
70.1
74.0
NA
67.8
82.6
70.0
63.5
109.5
128.1
129.5
NSC
NSC
90.4
169.4
65.1
24
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
96.3
22
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
77.8
20
17
21
18
18
22
20
21
89.3
NA
104.5
NA
NA
NA
NA
102.0
96.6
104.5
NA
115.1
NA
NA
104.4
NA
NSC
80.6
NA
70.5
63.7
NA
63.6
52.9
73.0
98.6
70.8
96.9
97.5
NA
99.1
94.1
102.0
106.3
103.5
116.0
114.4
111.5
120.2
123.8
NSC
103.7
63.9
106.3
110.9
107.5
110.8
110.4
110.2
101.9
73.3
109.0
107.7
104.0
111.0
107.2
103.2
94.8 102.2
130.2 92.5
101.8 100.0
121.1 94.0
91.5 89.6
105.5 109.7
29. Index of new private housing units author89.7
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagr i cultural ,
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
54 . Sales of retail stores
17. Price per unit of labor cost index
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks....
101.7
88.8
107.0
110.0
106.6
3
110.1
105.6
108.5
Percent change from specific trough related to reference
expansion beginning in year shown
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial bldgs., floor space2...
NA
104.1
NA
NA
109.9
NA
NSC
22
17
20
21
24
22
+14.5
+5.0
-2.1
-4.6
+13.5
+118.5 +72.7 +36.1 +55.7 +54.4
-1.8
+18.9 +27.6 +11.0
-7.3
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
+24.1
NSC
+25.6 +48.1
+108.4
+61.1 +11.4
-18.1 +81.8 +33.5
+5.7
+3.0
+3.9
NSC +38.6
+124.8
NSC +43.1
+7.3
+17.2
+6.5
+9.4
+54.3 +90.5 +46.4
+92.0 +24.7 +15.6
+4.2
3
+8.2
+8.2
+4.3
+4.5
-2.0
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machin29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits
24
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA +161.8
22
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
20
17
21
18
18
22
20
21
+29.6
NA
+53.3
NA
NA
+26.2
NA
+15.9
NA
+61.3
NA
+42.3 +17.8
+26.0 +20.4
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagr icultural
establishments
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q)
50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q)..
53. Labor income in mining, mfg., and construe..
54 . Sales of retail stores
+11.4 +10.3
NA
NA
+27.5 +24.5
NA
NA
NA
NA
+14.0
+7.2
NA
NA
NSC
NSC
+17.9 +10.6 +12.0
+7.4
+18.8 +29.1 +125.0 +51.4
+53.6 +46.5 +28.8 +18.1
+26.3 +16.3 +18.7 +13.9
NA +14.2
+11.6
NA
+29.3 +13.4 +26.7 +12.2
+48.6 +28.7 +41.6
+19.5
NSC +14.0
+29.3 +24.1
+6.3
+41.6
+27.2
+11.5
+8.8
+12.3
+16.4
+7.8
+4.0
+26.9
+15.7
+10.9
+8.7
3
+10.7
+11.2
+12.7
NA Not available.
NSC No specific cycle related to reference dates.
1
Based on period from most recent specific trough of each series to the latest month for which data are available.
The number is the same for each expansion. Specific trough and peak dates are shown in appendix B.
2
Except for 1961, changes are computed in a 3-term moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
3
Since no specific trough has been designated, figures are based on the low (L) and high (H) shown in table 1.
APPENDIXES
Appendix materials retain their original alphabetical designation. Therefore, when appendixes are dropped from an issue, the continuity is interrupted.
However, appendixes that are dropped will be listed with the latest date of
publication.
"Appendix E.—Summary Description of X-9 and X-10 Versions of the Census
Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program", not included in this issue, was included in March 1962.
Appendixes
60
Appendix A.--BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES AND DURATION OF EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS
IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough
from previous peak)
Business cycle
reference dates
Trough
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 186?
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
October I860...
April 1865
June 1869
October 1873...
March 1882
XXX
30
22
46
IS
34
36
XXX
XXX
18
8
32
18
65
48
30
78
36
99
40
54
50
52
101
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893...
December 1895..
June 1899
September 1902.
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910...
January 1913...
August 1918....
January 1920...
May 1923
23
13
24
23
2
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926...
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945..
November 1948..
July 1953
14
13
43
13
_8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
56
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May I960
35
25
58
44
34
48
34
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961
10 cycles, 1919-1961
4 cycles, 1945-1961
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961
8 cycles, 1919-1961
3 cycles, 1945-1961
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
2
54
46
3
5
48
41
6
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II,
and Korean War), the postwar contractions, and the full cycles that include the wartime
expansions.
4
*25 cycles, 1857-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
2
5
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
7 cycles, 1920-1960.
3
b
3 cycles, 1948-1960
2 cycles, 1948-1960.
Source:
National Bureau of Economic Research.
Appendixes
61
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough and peak dates are the actual dates that each series reaches its trough and peak. Reference dates are
those dates designated as the trough or peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for selected leading
and coincident series, the specific dates related to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in —
Selected series
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
workers , manufacturing
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs...
13. Number of new business incorporat ions
17. Price per unit of labor cost index.
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks..
23. Index of industrial mat. prices....
24. Value of mfrs.' new orders, ma, chinery and equipment industries..
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits.
Dec. '60 Apr. '58 Apr. '54 Apr. '49 Jan. '38 Jul.'32 Apr. '28 Jul.'24 Feb . ' 21
NSC
Jun.'58
Jan . ' 61 Nov. '57
Jan. '61 Apr. '58
Oct . ' 60Dec. '57
Dec. '60 Apr. '58
NSC
Aug. '49 Sep. '38 Oct . ' 32 Sep. '27 Jul.'24 Mar. '21
NSC
Dec. '53
Sep. '53
Feb. '54
Feb . ' 49Sep. '39
May '49 NA
Jun.'49 Apr. '38
Jun.'49 Jun.'38
Dec. '34
NA
Jun.'32
Jul.'32
Dec. '26
NA
NSC
Aug. '28
Jun.'24
NA
Oct. '23
Jun.'24
Jan. '21
NA
Aug. '21
Jul.'21
Oct. '60 Feb . ' 58Jan. ' 54 Apr. '49
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Dec. '60 Feb. '58 NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Jul.'24
NA
Jul.'24
NSC
NA
2nd Q' 24
Jul.'21
NA
Apr. '21
4thQ'21
NA
2ndQ'21
NA
NSC
NA
Mar. '22
NA
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Index of industrial production
49 . GNP in current dollars ( Q)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars (Q)
52 . Personal income
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing and construction
54. Sales of retail stores
Feb. '61
May '61
Jan. '61
lstQ'61
lstQ'61
NSC
Apr. '58
Aug. '58
Apr. '58
IstQ1 58
IstQ' 58
Feb. '58
Aug. ' 54 Oct. '49 Jun.'38
Sep. '54 Oct. '49 Jun.'38
Apr . ' 54Oct . ' 49May '38
2ndQ' 54 2nd Q' 49 2ndQ' 38
2nd Q' 54 2nd Q' 49 NA
Mar. '54 Oct. '49 m-y '38
mr.'33 Jan. '28
May '33 NA
Jul.'32 Nov. '27
IstQ' 33' NSC
NA
NA
Mar . ' 33 4thQ'26
Feb. '61 Apr. '58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49 Jun.'38 Mar. '33
Jan. '61 iykr.'58 Jan. '54 NSC
my '38 Mar. '33
NA
NSC
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning in —
Selected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
Nov.
1948
May
1937
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production
workers , manufacturing
May '59 Nov. '55 Apr . ' 53NSC
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial bldgs... NSC
Mar. '56 NSC
Mar. '46
13. Number of new business incorpoApr . ' 59Feb . ' 56NSC
Jul.'46
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. May '59 Mar. '57 Feb . ' 51Jan. '48
19. Index of stock prices, 500 stocks.. Jul.'59 Jul.'56 Jan. '53 Jun.'48
23. Index of industrial mat. prices.... Nov. '59 Dec. '55 Feb , ' 51 Jan. '48
24. Value of mfrs.1 new orders, machinery and equipment industries.. Dec. '59 Nov . ' 56Feb. '51 NA
29. Index of new private housing units
authorized by local bldg. permits. Nov . ' 58 Feb . ' 55NA
NA
Dec. '36
Oct. '29 Nov. '25
Nov. '22
NA
Jul.'37 Jan. '29
Sep. '25 Aug. '22 Dec. '19
Dec. '36
NA
Feb. '37
Mar. '37
Jan. '29
NA
Sep. '29
Mar. '29
Oct. '25
NA
NSC
Nov. '25
Apr. '23
NA
Mar. '23
Mar. '23
Dec. '19
NA
Jul.'19
Apr. '20
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
Jul.'37
Jul.'37
May '37
3rd Q' 37
NA
Jun.'37
Aug. '29
NA
Jul.'29
3rd Q' 29
NA
Aug. '29
Jan. '26
NA
Mar. '27
NSC
NA
2nd Q' 26
Jul.'23
NA
May '23
NSC
NA
IstQ' 24
Jan. '20
NA
Feb. '20
NA
NA
NA
NA
NSC
NA
NSC
NA
Jul.'20
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
47. Index of industrial production
49 . GNP in current dollars ( Q)
50. GNP in 1954 dollars ( Q)
Apr. '60
Feb. '60
Jan. ' 60
2nd Q1 60
2ndQ' 60
NSC
ffer.'57
Mar. '57
Feb. '57
3rdQ'57
3rd Q' 57
Aug. '57
May '53 Jul.'48
Jun.'53 Jan. '48
Jul.'53 Jul.'48
2ndQ' 53 4thQ' 48
2ndQ' 53 4thQ' 48
Oct . ' 53Oct. '48
53. Labor income in mining, manufac54. Sales of retail stores.....
NA not available.
NSC
May '60 Jul.'57 Jul.'53 Sep. '48 May '37 Sep. '29
Apr. '60 Jul.'57 Jul.'53 NSC
Sep. '37 Sep. '29
No specific cycle related to reference dates.
Appendixes
62
Appendix C.--AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR 53 MONTHLY AND
10 QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
i/c
Monthly series
CI
I
C
1/5
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
CI
I
C
MCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing
.24
2.08
1.35
5.45
1.67
2.55
2.33
1.92
2
3
3
3
.95
.92
.55
.76
2.57
2.53
1.86
2.49
1.84
1.82
1.49
1.80
9.82
8.35
8.67
7.59
4.26
4-58
4-53
5.16
4.88
3.67
5
.81
1.66
1.49
7.10
3.37
3.16
1.94
2
.97
1.86
1.53
9.28
3.61
2.00
2.50
3
.75
1.94
1.48
10.64
3.34
2.19
2.53
3
.73
1.68
1.47
12.82
3.56
11.94
5.94
2.75
2.19
4.34
2.71
5
3
.80
.79
1.62
1.59
1.49
1.37
8.28
8.56
3.45
3.55
7.12
3.39
2.36
2.01
3.02
1.69
4
3
.71
.67
1.82
2.29
1.69
1.67
10.14
11.46
5.23
4.46
3.90
3.04
3.44
2.57
1.67
1.30
2.06
1.98
3
3
.60
.65
1.93
2.19
1.53
1.69
12.43
9.31
3.70
3.50
16.32
16.05
2.81
5.71
6
i1)
1.57
1.42
5.32
2.22
17.30
.72
2.58
17.36
.56
1.90
3.26
.41
1.49
5.33
1.37
1.28
6
2
2
(M
.80
.79
1.54
2.70
2.40
1.39
1.80
1.73
6.21
11.53
13.55
2.82
4.10
3.36
6.17
5.53
2.76
2.00
3
.66
1.90
1.61
11.55
4.63
11.30
2.15
8.12
1.39
7.20
1.52
1.13
.91
2
1
.77
.91
3.18
2.61
2.01
1.84
9.94
11.46
3.59
2.61
.40
5-31
Nonagri cultural placements, all industries....
3.14
Layoff rate, manufacturing
11.94 10.46
Number of persons on temporary layoff, all
19.43
17.91
Average weekly initial claims for unemploy6.12
6.98
Value of manufacturers1 new orders, durable
5.00
5.58
Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery
and equipment industries
6.07
5.55
.47
6.03
3. a
30.
3.
4.
5.
6.
24.
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings
12.37
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment.. 6.37
27. Buying policy— production materials, percent
reporting commitments 6 months or longer
7.56
7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started.... 4.09
29. Index of new private housing units authorized
13. Number of new business incorporations
15. Number of business failures with liabilities
of $100,000 and over
17. Price per unit of labor cost index. ...
26. Buying policy— production materials, percent
reporting commitments 60 days or longer
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
23. Index of industrial materials prices
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
4-1. Number of employees in nonagricultural
.39
.22.
.29
.76
1
.76
3.41
2.04
10.44
3.41
4-3 • Unemployment rate , total
.41
4-73
5.80
.32
3.46
4.62
.22
2.91
3.26
1.45
1.19
1.42
2
2
2
.72
.64
.67
1.94
2.44
2.05
1.62
1.68
1.38
15.73
7.67
10.50
3.44
3-48
4.37
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate,
State programs
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in
5.63
2.80
4.12
.68
1
.68
3.47
2.44
8.28
3.'47
3.28
2.10
2.26
.93
1
.93
2.30
1.40
8.13
2.30
1.16
1.56
.69
.66
1.42
.43
.81
.70
.54
.81
2.03
.80
1
3
1
.81
.58
.80
4.25
1.82
3.39
1.87
1.55
1.69
11.00
10.64
21.29
4.25
4.32
3-39
1.12
1.58
.69
1.43
.84
.56
.82
2.55
1
4
.82
.70
3.63
1.84
1.80
1.67
13.55
8.77
3.63
3.56
.30
.11
.27
.^1
1
.41
5.22
2.53
12.85
5.22
4.2. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force
4,7.
51.
52.
53-
Index of industrial production
Bank debits outside NYC, 343 centers
Personal income
Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and
55- Index of wholesale prices, all commodities
other than farm products and foods
See footnotes at end of table.
Appendixes
63
Appendix C.« AVERAGE PERCENTAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR 53 MONTHLY AND
10 QUARTERLY BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Monthly series
CI
I
C
I/C
MCD
I/C
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
CI
I
C
MCD
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of
output, total manufacturing
64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all
manufacturing industries
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods, all manufacturing industries.
66. Consumer installment debt
.66
.46
.40
.88
.27
.40
.99
1.19
.49
.28
.28
7.17
7.49
3.72
3.52
Index of construction contracts, total value.. 8.29
Defense Department obligations, procurement... 25.35
Defense Department obligations, total
15.57
Military prime contract awards to U.S. busi29.19
2
.66
2.70
1.77
11.53
. 4.65
.34
1
.34
7.84
2.16
13.55
7.84
.84
1.12
.58
.25
1
1
.58
.25
6.48
8.79
2.61
2.29
13.55
18.56
6.48
8.79
.17
6.91
7.23
.23
1.31
1.46
.74
• 5.27
4.95
1
5
5
.74
.92
.96
4.48
1.47
1.70
2.18
1.39
1.52
19.89
7.59
5.96
4.48
2.30
2.55
3.39
3.02
8.06
24.41
15.00
1.52
1.32
2.22
4.97
2.88
2.23
2.29
3.63
4.91
5.21
3
3
4
6
5
.69
.79
.96
'M
.99
1.89
1.71
1.67
1.58
1.49
1.51
1.57
1.47
1.51
1.41
7.84
6.21
7.26
6.46
6.67
4.08
3.06
2.93
2.44
2.40
29.33
6.21
4.72
6
(M
1.61
1.50
5.38
2.76
1.03
1.29
.88
.82
1.15
1.63
1.61
1.15
.68
.49
.52
.88
.98
.65
.81
1.60
1.51
2.63
1.69
.93
1.17
2.51
1.99
.72
2
3
2
1
2
3
3
1
2.91
2.41
3.44
3.92
2.46
2.20
2.27
3.37
1.95
1.93
2.27
2.92
1.62
1.70
1.67
1.77
17.11
15.40
15.50
9.31
17.78
17.00
22.00
23.57
5.23
6.91
6.13
3.92
4.08
5.09
9.50
3.37
1.15
OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
82. Federal cash payments to the public
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments,
94.
90.
91.
92.
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
121. OECD, European countries, index of indus. prod. . . 1.32
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial prod
1.29
.98
47. United States, index of industrial production. 1.32
12$. West Germany, index of industrial production. . 1.61
1.79
1.70
127. Italy, index of industrial production
128. Japan, index of industrial production
2.09
Quarterly series
CI
I
C
I/C
.82
.87
.98
.93
.64
.80
.63
.72
I/C
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
CI
I
C
QCD
NBER LEADING INDICATORS
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602
11.15
7.66
7.00
4.54
7.59
5.35
.92
.85
1
1
.92
.85
2.82
2.83
1.48
1.65
5.17
3.64
2.82
2.83
7.73
5.06
5.01
1.01
2
.51
2.83
1.42
5.67
3.85
5.78
3.73
4.17
.89
1
.89
2.89
1.49
5.50
2.89
1.13
1.59
1.45
.58
.43
.57
1
1
1
.58
.43
.57
3.19
4.25
4.64
1.50
1.42
1.46
5.10
6.38
7.29
3.19
4.25
4.64
2.94
.51
1
.51
4.64
1.55
5.67
4.64
.84
.71
1
.71
2.68
1.31
7.29
2.68
2.37
.82
1
.82
2.68
1.55
6.38
2.68
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales,
22. Ratio, profits to income originating, corpo-
NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
49* Gross national product in current dollars
57. Final sales (series 49 minus 21)
1.44
1.88
1.60
.65
.69
.82
NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
61. Business expenditures on new plant and equip3.61
1.49
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
1.02
.60
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
2.96
See footnotes on following page.
1.94
64
Appendixes
NOTES FOR APPENDIX G
^-Not computed for series when MOD is "6" or more.
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown in this table. More complete explanations appear in Business Cycle Indicators, Geoffrey H. Moore, editor; National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., vol. 1, ch. 17, "Electronic
Computers and Business Indicators" by Julius Shiskin (Princeton University Press: 1961).
"CI" is the average month-to-month
(for_quarterly series, quarter-to-quarter) percentage change, without regard to
sign, in the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is obtained by dividing the
cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted series.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component which is a smooth,
flexible moving average.
"MCD" represents months for cyclical dominance. The average (without regard to sign) percentage changes in the irregular component and cyclical component are1 computed for 1-month spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans
(Jan.-Mar., Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 5-month spans. MCD is the shortest span for which the average change (without regard
to sign) in the cyclical component is larger than the average change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component.
Since changes are not computed for spans greater than 5 months, all series with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
MCD is small for smooth series and large for erratic series.
"QGD" represents quarters for cyclical dominance. It is
the shortest span (in quarters) for which the average change (without regard to sign) in cyclical component is larger
than the irregular average (without regard to sign) in component.
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted
series.
For monthly series, it is shown for 1-month spans; and for spans of the period of MCD.
When MGD is "6", no I/C
ratio is shown for the MGD period. For quarterly series, I/C is shown for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average duration of run" is a measure of smoothness, and is equal to the average number of consecutive monthly
changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, it is assumed
that the "no change" is a change in the same direction as the preceding change.
The average duration of run is shown
for the seasonally adjusted series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD moving average. The MCD
moving average is a moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally adjusted series. For quarterly series, average duration of run is the average number of consecutive quarterly changes in the same direction.
Appendixes
65
Appendix D.--CURRENT SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES ADJUSTED BY BUREAU OF THE CENSUS O R N B E R
(NOVEMBER 1961 TO DECEMBER 1962)
19(51
1962
Series
Nov.
4. Number of persons on temporary
layoff all industries
5. Av. weekly claims for unemploy.
insurance, State programs
9. Constr. contracts awarded for
commercial and indus . bldgs
Dec.
89.0 106.1
Jan.
Feb.
105.2 118.2
103.5 128.9 136.9
111.4
95.4 84.4
83.5 71.6
84.6 100.3 118.1
93.1
14. Cur. liabilities of bus. failures. 106.1
95.0 101.8 103.6
15. No. of bus. failures with liabilities of $100,000 and over... 95.4 90.1 111.4 113.1
Mar.
Apr.
98.1
86.8
99.8
98.2
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept. Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
90.5
85.9 101.8 136 6
92 3
91 1
82.7
83.9 101.0
77.3
90.1 103.8 128.6
86.0
88 8 106 6
98.3 113.7 117.1 106.6 110.3
100.9 108.4 110.8
95.6 84.6
110.1 103.7 104.7 104.3 100.1 95 3 90 1 95 9 84 6 100 3
113.6 109.1
94.8
95.7 96.3 85.4 103.4
95.0
94.2
106.7
113.4 109.6
96.9 103.2
92.3 100.5
87.6
86.3
95.3
90.1
17. Price per unit of labor cost
100.5 98.1 99.0 100.7 101.0 100.6
18. Profits (before taxes) per dol.
of sales, all mfg. corp.1
97.5
98.6
25. Change in mfrs.1 unfilled orders, dur. goods industries2.... 100.3 100.7
99.8 100.3 100.3
99.7
30. Nonagri. placements, all indus... 90.3 85.2 81.8 77.6 88.8 100.2
55. Index of wholesale prices, exc.
99.9 100.0 100.2 100.2 100.2 100.2
62. Index of wage and salary cost
per unit of output, total mfg... 99.1 102.0 101.8
99.6 99.3 99.5
81.
82.
83.
90.
Index of consumer prices
100.2 100.1
Federal cash payments to public.. 103.1
99.1
Federal cash receipts from pub... 98.8 103.5
Defense Department obligations —
procurement
90.1 98.9
91. Defense Dept. oblig., total
90.8 100.3
92. Military prime contract awards
to U.S. business firms.
68.6 115.3
128. Japan, index of indus. prod
98.7 102.9
Value of commercial and indus.
constr. contracts (component of
series 10)
Value of privately owned public
works and utilities contracts
( component of series 10)
100.1 101.1
94.9
105.5
99 5 101 4 103 3 100 5
97.9
98.7 98.8 99.8 100.3 100.9 100.4
108.9 112.5 104.8 115.7 122.0 111.1
100.0
99.7
99.9
99.9
99.9
98.7 105.2 100.2
98 2
97.5
100.3 100.9
93.0 83.9
99.9
99.9
99 9 100.0
98.4
96.5
99.2 102.0
99.9 99.9 99.8 100.0
99.8 100.0 100.1 99.9 100.1 100.2 100.2 100.1
96.9 111.7
90.2 99.0 92.4 98.8 102.7 107.5
97.2 101.1 103.8 98.8
71.6 114.9 136.7
77.4 115.0 154.8
50.2 108.7 122.3 46.5 99.4 104.0
75.2
91.4
95.9 146.8
91.9 117.8
80.5 80.0 125.6
93.9 101.5 108.7
94.9
83.8
86.7 '75.3
60.3
47.8
79.9
78.0
94.5
76.2 220.8
88.2 156.3
51.6
82.8
79.2 100.7
99.1
86.8
94.7
99.9
94.5 229.2
99.9 100.4
68.6
99.3
67.7
96.6
98.7 108.3
78.1 101.9 112.3
84.0
98.8
90.0 98.9
90.8 100.3
93.2 82.7 68.6 115.3
98.6 100.1 98.7 102.9
99.7 111.1 113.6 109.6 112.9
95.0
83.9
130.2 122.6 117.0 111.5 129.1 108.9
60.3
46.9
106.7
These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form.
Seasonal adjustments were made by the
Bureau of the Census or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source
agency will be substituted whenever they are published.
Some of the series above are also adjusted for trading days.
For this reason, the original observations divided by the seasonal factors given above will not yield the seasonally adjusted figures shown in table 1.
•'•Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
2
The seasonal factors are applied to the unfilled orders series; then the change in unfilled orders is computed.
Appendixes
66
Appendix F.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES:
1920 TO 1961
Percent change:
Contractions :
Reference peak to
reference trough
41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
47. Index
of industrial
production
Reference peak to reference trough
43. Unemployment rate
50. GNP
in 1954
dollars
(Q)1
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
51. Bank
debits
outside
NYC
52. Personal
income
54. Retail
sales
Change
in rate,
peak to
trough
Rate at
peak
2
2
Jan . 1920-July 1921
May 1923-July 1924 .
Oct. 1926-Nov. 1927
Aug. 1929-Mar. 1933
May 1937 June 1938
NA
NA
NA
-31.6
-10.4
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
NA
-0.3
+2.3
-28.0
-8.9
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
-49.6
-11.9
-22.5
-3.1
+8.7
-61.9
-16.5
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
-50.8
-10.9
-4.3
-1.9
0.0
-43.5
-14.1
+7.9
+2.3
2
+2.2
+25.4
+8.8
Feb. 1945-Oct. 19454
Nov 1948-Oct. 1949
July 1953-Aug 19545
July 1957-Apr. 1958
May 1960-Feb. 1961
-7.8
-5.1
-3.4
-4.1
-2.0
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.9
NA
-1.4
-3.0
-3.8
-1.9
-10.9
-3.3
-1.8
-2.5
-0.8
-1.0
-4.0
+1.6
-3.1
+2.4
-4.0
-4.3
-0.2
-0.3
+0.6
+8.7
-0.3
-0.8
-3.4
-3.5
+2.2
+3.8
+3.4
+3.2
+1.8
-5.7
-16.0
-2.4
-2.9
-3.1
-2.2
-2.6
-6.5
-16.0
-2.6
-2.9
-3.6
-2.3
-3.4
-3.8
-8.8
-2.4
-2.2
-0.8
-0.2
-2.1
4.0
3.2
2
1.9
3
0.0
11.2
2
2
Rate at
trough
2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
1.1
4.0
2.6
4.2
5.1
3.3
7.8
6.0
7.4
6.9
+3.3
3.6
7.2
+3.5
4.0
7.6
+3.3
4.1
7.2
3
Median:6
Excluding postwar con4 contractions since
1948
Percent change:
Expansions:
Reference trough
to reference peak
41 Employees
in nonagri. establishments
47 . Index
of industrial
production
Reference trough to reference peak
43 • Unemployment rate
50. GNP
in 1954
dollars
(Q)1
49 GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
51. Bank
debits
outside
NYC
52. Personal
income
54- Retail
sales
+23.5
+18.9
+20.4
+78.4
+131.7
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76.3
+157.3
+15.7
+9.9
+3.6
+63.1
+103.3
-8.7
-3.6
2
-0.9
-14.2
-18.9
Change
in rate,
trough
to peak
2
Rate at
trough
2
Rate at
peak
2
July
July
Nov.
Mar
June
1921 May 1923
1924-Oct. 1926
1927-Aug. 1929
1933-May 1937
1938 Feb 19454
NA
NA
NA
+40.2
+45.9
+64.2
+30.4
+24.1
+119.9
+183.3
NA
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
NA
+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
Oct
Oct
Aug.
Apr
1945-Nov. 1948.
1949-July 1953s
1954-July 1957
1958 May I960
+17.2
+17.7
+8.9
+7.2
+21.9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2
+3.3
+27.4
+13.5
+11.9
+34.9
+43.5
+23.8
+15.5
+51.5
+49.3
+28.6
+21.2
+28.5
+41.5
+22.8
+13.4
+62.0
+26.3
+20.4
+13.5
+0.3
-5.2
-1.8
-2.3
3.3
7.8
6.0
7.4
+17.4
+35.2
+12.8
+27.9
+33.8
+27.0
+20.8
-3.7
7.1
3.3
+13.0
+26.6
+12.5
+21.5
+24.4
+21.6
+16.5
-2.6
6.3
3.7
+13.0
+23.5
+12.7
+29.4
+39.0
+25.6
+23.4
-2.0
6.7
3.9
2
11.9
2
5.5
2
4.1
25.4
20.0
3.2
1.9
3.2
11.2
1.1
2
2 3
3
3.6
2.6
4.2
5.1
Median:6
Excluding wartime ex4 expansions since
1945
For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD) of "1" or "2" (series 41, 43, 47, and 52), the figure for the
reference peak (trough) month is used as the base.
For series with an MCD of "3" or more (series 51 and 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base.
The base for quarterly series
(series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
1
The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter 1960 (peak); and 1st
quarter 1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER), vol. 1, p. 670.
2
Based on average for the calendar year.
3
Differs from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in series used.
^World War II contraction or expansion period.
5
Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
COMPLETE TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not necessarily reflect series relationships or order. *M* indicates monthly series and "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period except for series designated by "FOM" or *EOQ".
H
EOM" indicates that data are for the end of the month and "EOQ" indicates that data are for the end of the quarter. The general classification of series follows the approach of the National Bureau of Economic Research. The series preceded by an asterisk (*) were included
in the 1960 NBER list of 26 indicators.
30 NBER LEADING INDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff, all industries (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
5. Average weekly claims for unemployment insurance. State programs (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
*7. New private nonfarm dwelling units started (M).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M).—F. W. Dodge Corporation; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M).--Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and F. W. Dodge
Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 602 manufacturing corporations (Q).—National Industrial Conference Board
*12. Net change in the business population, operating businesses
(EOQ).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).--Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of $100,000 and
over (M).-°Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
17. Price per unit of labor cost index (ratio of wholesale prices of
manufactured goods index to wage and salary cost per unit of
output index) (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).--Federal Trade Commission and Securities and
Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—Standard and
Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories, purchased
material (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
*21. Change in business inventories, farm and no n farm, after valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment
industries (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
from special tabulations of the Office of Business Economics
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
26. Buying policy—production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M).—National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
27. Buying policy-capital expenditures, percent reporting commitments 6 months or longer (M).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M).—Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries (M).—
Chicago Purchasing Agents Association; no seasonal adjustment
15 NBER ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagri cultural employment, labor force survey (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate. State programs (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).—National
Industrial Conference Board and B. K. Davis and Bro. Advertising Service
*47. Index of industrial production (M).--Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
*49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).—Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*50. Gross national product in 1954 dollars (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*51. Bank debits outside New York City, 343 centers (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
*52. Personal income (M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
53. Labor income in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).—
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*54. Sales of retail stores (M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census and Office of Business Economics
*55. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities, other than farm
products and foods (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
7 NBER LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total (Q).—
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of wage and salary cost per unit of output, total manufacturing (ratio of index of wage and salary disbursements in manufacturing to index of industrial production, manufacturing)
(M).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Re serve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
63. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total gross national product (ratio of compensation of employees to GNP in 1954 dollars) (Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*64. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, all
manufacturing industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*66. Consumer installment debt, (EOM).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current figure (NBER seasonally adjusted data through
January 1955 used as base)
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 19 cities (Q).—Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no seasonal adjustment
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
WASHINGTON, D. C.
PAYMENT OF POSTAGE. 93OO
(GPO)
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
COMPLETE TITLES AND SOURCES OF PRINCIPAL BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES AND DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
15 OTHER U.S. SERIES WITH BUSINESS
CYCLE SIGNIFICANCE
7 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
81. Index of consumer*pricesXM).~Department of Labor, Bureau of
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).--Organiza-
Labor Statistics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
82. Federal cash payments to the public (M).—Treasury Department,
Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (M).-Treasury Department,
Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President,
Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the
Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the
method of seasonal adjustment
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (M).—Treasury
Department, Bu-
reau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget. Monthly seasonal adjustments by the Bureau of the Census do not equal quarterly totals of the official
seasonally adjusted series because of differences in the method of seasonal adjustment
tion for Economic Cooperation and Development
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Dominion Bureau of
Statistics, Ottawa
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).—Organization
for Economic Cooperation and Development
126.
France, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-Organization for Eco-
nomic Cooperation and Development
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-The Bank of Japan,
Statistics Department; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
... United States, index of industrial production (M).-See series 47.
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M).—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).—Department
DIFFUSION INDEXES
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87.
General imports, total (M).—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding business cycle series bear the same number and are obtained from the same sources. See sources above for
Dl, D5, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, and D61. Sources for
other diffusion indexes are as follows:
90. Defense Department obligations,
D33.
the Census
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87) (M).—De-
partment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
procurement (M).—Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M).~Department of De-
fense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards, U.S. business firms (M).—De-
partment of Defense, Directorate for Statistical
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
93.
Services;
Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings)
(M).—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M).-F. W. Dodge
Corporation
95. Surplus or deficit. Federal income and product account (Q).—De-
partment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
Profits, Chicago PAA (M).—Pure ha sing Agents Association of
Chicago; no seasonal adjustment
D34. Profits, Manufacturing, FNCB (Q).—First National City Bank of
New York; no seasonal adjustment of series components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
D35. Net sales, total manufactures (Q).—Dun and Brad street, Inc., no
seasonal adjustment
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).-Dun and Brad street, Inc.;
no seasonal adjustment
D48.
Freight carloadings (Q).-Association of'American Railroads; no
seasonal adjustment
D58. Wholesale prices, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment of series
components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
@FedFRASER