Full text of Business Conditions Digest : May 1985
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L U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Malcolm Baldrige, Secretary Sidney L. Jones, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS Allan H. Young, Acting Director Edward K. Smith, Associate Director for National Analysis and Projections Fellks Tamm, Editor This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are— Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes Betty F. Tunstall—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541) The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and sources at the back of this report. This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting of the following persons: Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget Lincoln F. Anderson, Council of Economic Advisers John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury Edward K. Smith, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce Helmut F. Wendel, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ABOUT THIS REPORT BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides a monthly look at many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts and forecasters. The original BCD, which began publication in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions and prospects. The report's contents were based largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its usefulness to analysts using other approaches to business conditions analysis. Principal additions to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's present title was adopted. The dominant feature of the current BCD is the cyclical indicators section, in which each business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way timing classification according to its behavior at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of presentation is explained in the introductory text which begins on page 1. Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic, $55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are available on request. Address correspondence Most of the data contained in this report also are published by their source agencies. A series finding guide and a complete list of series titles and sources can be found at the back of the report. Cyclical Indicators are economic time series which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process and by their average timing at business cycle peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks and troughs combined. These indicators have been selected primarily on the basis of their cyclical behavior, but they also have proven useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business conditions and prospects. They include selected components of the national income and product accounts; measures of prices, wages, and productivity; measures of the labor force, employment and unemployment; economic data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with major foreign countries. concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable to Superintendent of Documents. BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST New Features and Changes for This Issue iii METHOD OF PRESENTATION Seasonal Adjustments MCD Moving Averages Reference Turning Dates Part I. Cyclical Indicators Part II. Other Important Economic Measures How To; Read Charts How To Locate a Series Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes 1 1 1 1 4 5 5 6 BCII MAY 1 9 8 5 Data Through April Volume 25, Number 5 PART I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS A4 COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Composite Indexes Leading Index Components Coincident Index Components Lagging Index Components Bl B2 B3 B4 B5 B6 B7 CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Employment and Unemployment Production and Income Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Fixed Capital Investment Inventories and Inventory Investment Prices, Costs, and Profits Money and Credit 16 19 21 23 26 28 31 61 63 64 65 68 69 71 Cl C2 C3 DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Diffusion Indexes Selected Diffusion Index Components Rates of Change 36 — 39 74 77 — Al A2 The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds Chart 10 12 14 15 Table 60 — — — for printing this periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through April 1, 1986. ItCII PART II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES Al A2 A3 A4 A5 A6 A7 A8 NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT GNP and Personal Income Personal Consumption Expenditures Gross Private Domestic Investment Government Purchases of Goods and Services Foreign Trade National Income and Its Components Saving Shares of GNP and National Income Bl B2 Chart 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 Table 80 80 81 81 82 82 82 83 PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Price Movements Wages and Productivity 48 49 84 87 LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Civilian Labor Force and Major Components 51 89 GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Receipts and Expenditures Defense Indicators 52 53 90 90 U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Merchandise Trade Goods and Services Movements 56 57 92 93 INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Industrial Production Consumer Prices Stock Prices 58 59 59 94 95 96 PART III. APPENDIXES A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators} QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators) B. Current Adjustment Factors 97 C. Historical Data for Selected Series 98 D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide") E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (January 1985 issue) F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (February 1985 issue) G. Experimental Data and Analyses 105 Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide 110 Titles and Sources of Series 114 Readers 9re invited to submit comments and suggestions concerning this publication. Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230 NEW FEATURES AND CHANGES FOR THIS ISSUE A limited number of changes are made from time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic research, newly available time series, and revisions made by source agencies in concept, composition, comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc. Changes may result in revisions of data, additions or deletions of series, changes in placement of Changes in this issue are as follows: 1. The series on new private housing units authorized by local building permits (series 29) has been revised for the period 1983 to date to reflect the source agency's annual updating of basic data and seasonal adjustment factors. In addition, for the period 1984 to date, this series now is based on reports from 17,000 permit-issuing places. Data for 1946-83, which are based on reports from fewer places, have been adjusted to the level of the data from 17,000 places. Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Construction Statistics Division (updating of data and seasonal adjustment factors); and Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division (level adjustment). 2. Appendix C contains historical data for series 61, 72, 101, 107, 112, 332-335, 341, 960, and 970. 3. Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series 19, 32, 73, 7.4, 86, and 89. The June issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for release on July 3. series in relation to other series, changes in composition of indexes, etc. SIX BEA PROJECTS FOR ECONOMIC ANALYSIS BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST A monthly report for analyzing economic fluctuations over a short span of years. This report brings together many of the economic time series most useful to business analysts and forecasters. In the cyclical indicators section, each of about 110 business cycle indicators is assigned a three-way timing classification according to its cyclical behavior at peaks, troughs, and all turns. This section also includes important analytical measures, such as composite indexes of leading, coincident and lagging indicators and selected diffusion indexes. A second section contains other important economic data on prices, wages, productivity, government and defense-related activities, U.S. international transactions, and international comparisons. About 300 time series are shown in analytical graphs that help to evaluate business conditions and prospects. Current data are shown in accompanying tables. Appendixes provide historical data, seasonal adjustment factors, measures of variability, cyclical comparisons, and other useful information. A computer tape containing data for most of the series is available for purchase. HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS A reference volume con- taining valuable background information for users of Business Conditions Digest. This recurrent report provides descriptive and analytical information on the economic time series presented monthly in Business Conditions Digest Included are series descriptions, historical data, and measures of variability. For the cyclical indicators and composite indexes, special tables show detailed scoring measures and average timing at cyclical peaks and troughs. Verbal and algebraic explanations of the composite index methodology are also provided. LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH A report for the study of economic trends over a long span of years: 1860-1970. This report provides a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy by presenting relevant statistical time series in easy-to-follow analytical charts and convenient data tables. It is a basic research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students, bringing together in one volume a complete statistical basis for the study of long-term economic trends. A computer tape file of the time series included in the report is available for purchase. COMPUTER PROGRAMS FOR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS The source statements for FORTRAN IV programs used by BEA in its analysis of time series are available on a single computer tape. SEASONAL A D J U S T M E N T PROGRAMS—Two variants of the Census computer program measure and analyze seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and irregular fluctuations. They are particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations that take place within a year. The X - l l variant is used for adjusting monthly data and the X-11Q for quarterly data. These programs make additive as well as multiplicative adjustments and compute many summary and analytical measures. INDEX PROGRAM—This program computes composite and diffusion indexes and summary measures of the properties of each index. T I M E SERIES PROCESSOR—This program, through simple commands, performs a variety of arithmetic, statistical, and manipulative operations on time series data. SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS A monthly report for analyzing current economic developments. Features include a review of current economic developments; articles pertaining to BEA's work on the national, regional, and international economic accounts and related topics; quarterly national income and product accounts tables; and over 1,900 major economic series obtained from other public and private sources. For further information (including prices and ordering instructions) on any of these items, please write to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, DC 20230. BUSINESS STATISTICS A reference volume containing statistical series reported currently in the Survey of Current Business. This report provides historical data on statistical time series. The series are accompanied by concise descriptions of their composition, methods of compilation, comparability, revisions, and availability. Also listed are the names and addresses of organizations that provide .the data for the series. METHOD OF PRESENTATION This report is organized into two major parts. Part 1, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time series which have been found to conform well to broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are individual indicators, the rest are related analytical measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes, and rates of change. Part II, Other Important Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which are valuable to business analysts and forecasters but which do not conform well enough to business cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a few exceptions: Four series which are included in part I are also shown in part II to complete the systematic presentation of certain sets of data, such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest section of part II consists of quarterly series from the national income and product accounts; other sections relate to prices, labor force, government and defense-related activities, and international transactions and comparisons. The two parts are further divided into sections (see table of contents), and each of these sections is described briefly in this introduction. Data are shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts begin with 1959, but those for the composite indexes and their components (part I, section A) begiri with 1948, and a few charts use a two-panel format which covers only the period since 1973. Except for section F in part II, charts contain shading which indicates periods of recession in general business activity. The tables contain data for only the last few years. The historical data for the various time series are contained in the 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series. Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors, measures of variability, specific cycle turning dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other information of analytical interest An index appears at the back of each issue. It should be noted that the series numbers used are for identification purposes only and do not reflect precise relationships or order. However, all series cbnsidered as cyclical indicators are numbered in the range 1 to 199. Seasonal Adjustments Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive intrayear variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays are usually accounted for by the seasonal adjustment process; however, a separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or trading days in each month. As used in this report, the term "seasonal adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made. Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these are the official figures released by the source agencies. However, for the special purposes of this report, a number of series not ordinarily published in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a seasonally adjusted basis. MCD Moving Averages Month-to-month changes in a series are often dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the smallest span of months for which the average change in the cyclical factor is greater than that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic, MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its cyclical movements about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of 1. The charts in this report generally include centered MCD moving averages for those series with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations for the most recent months. Reference Turning Dates The historical business cycle turning dates used in this report are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general practice, neither new reference turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until after both the new reference peak and the new reference trough bounding the shaded area have been designated. The historical reference turning dates are subject to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed as a result of revisions in important economic time series. The dates shown in this publication for the 1948-70 time period are those determined by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and 1981-82. Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS Business cycles have been defined as sequences of expansion and contraction in various economic processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity-that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment, income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive, business cycles of historical experience have been definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in duration and intensity, reflecting changes in economic systems, conditions, policies, and outside disturbances. One of the techniques developed in business cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is the cyclical indicators approach. This approach identifies certain economic time series as tending to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad movements in aggregate economic activity. Such indicators have been selected and analyzed by NBER in a series of studies published between 1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research staff. The present format and content of part I of BCD are based on the results of that study. Section A. Composite Indexes and Their Components All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of timing at business cycle peaks and troughs, conformity to business expansions and contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability (currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme was developed and used to assess each series by all of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and November 1975 issues of BCD.) The resulting scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series during the period 1947-70. This analysis produced a new list of indicators classified by economic process and typical timing at business cycle peaks and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below relating to section B.) This information, particularly the scores relating to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the selection of series to be included in the composite indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring series from many different economic-process groups and combine those with similar timing behavior, using their overall performance scores as weights. Because they use series of historically tested usefulness and given timing characteristics (for example, leading at both peaks and troughs), with diversified economic coverage and a minimum of duplication, composite indexes give more reliable signals over time than do any of the individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks N. Economic \Process Cyclical X. Timing N. LEADING (L.) INDICATORS (62 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT(C) INDICATORS (23 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (18 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED (U) (8 series) III. CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (18 series) V. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) VI. PRICES,COSTS, AND PROFITS (17 series) VII. MONEY AND CREDIT (26 series) Capacity utilization (2 series) New and unfilled orders and deliveries (6 series) Consumption (2 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business investment commitments (5 series) Residential construction (3 series) Inventory investment (4 series) Inventories on hand and on order (1 series) Stock prices (1 series) Commodity prices ( l series) Profits and profit margins (7 series) Cash flows (2 series) Money flows (3 series) Real money supply (2 series) Credit flows (4 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Bank reserves (2 series) Interest rates (1 series) Comprehensive output and real Income (4 series) Industrial production (4 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) Backlog of Investment commitments (1 series) Business Investment expenditures (5 series) EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (18 series) PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) Marginal employment adjustments (6 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive unemployment (3 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Duration of unemployment (2 series) Business investment expenditures (1 series) Comprehensive empioyment Trade Business Investment commitments (X series) II. PRODUCTION AND INCOME (10 series) HI. CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (13 series) IV. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT (18 series) industrial production (1 series) New and unfilled orders and deliveries (5 series) Consumption and trade (4 series) Formation of business enterprises (2 series) Business Investment commitments (4 series) Residential construction (3 series) Consumption and trade (3 series) Business Investment commitments (1 series) Unfilled orders (1 series) Business Investment commitments (2 series) Business investment expenditures (6 series) (1 series) (3 series) Velocity of money (2 series) Interest rates (2 series) Inventories on hand and on order (4 series) Unit labor costs and labor share (4 series) 1 nterest rates (4 series) Outstanding debt (3 series) Commodity prices (1 series) Profit share (1 series) Interest rates (1 series) B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs x. Economic \Process Cyclical^ Timing N. LEADING (L) INDICATORS (47 series) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT(C) INDICATORS (23 series) LAGGING (Lg) INDICATORS (40 series) EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT (18 series) Marginal employment adjustments (3 series) Marginal employment adjustments (2 series) Comprehensive employment (4 series) Marginal employment adjustments (1 series) Job vacancies (2 series) Comprehensive employment (1 series) Comprehensive and duration of unemployment Comprehensive output and real Income (4 series) Industrial production (3 series) Capacity utilization (2 series) INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT (9 series) Inventory Investment (4 series) Inventories on hand and on order (5 series) VII. PRICES, COSTS, MONEY AND CREDIT AND PROFITS (17 series) (26 series) Stock prices (1 series) Commodity prices (2 series) Profits and profit margins (6 series) Cash flows {2 series) Money flows (2 series) Real money {2 series) Credit flows (4 series) Credit difficulties (2 series) Profits (2 series) Money flow {1 series) Velocity of money (1 series) Unit labor costs and labor share (4 series) Velocity of money (1 series) Bank reserves (X series) Interest rates (8 series) Outstanding debt (3 series) (5 series) TIMING UNCLASSIFIED <U) (1 series) Bank reserves (1 series) independent measurement error and other "noise" in the included series are smoothed out in the index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly series that are acceptable in terms of relatively prompt availability and reasonable accuracy. The main composite indexes are distinguished by their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of leading indicators, series which historically reached their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the corresponding business cycle turns. There is an index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting of series which historically reached their turning points at about the same time as the general economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which includes series that typically reached their peaks and troughs later than the corresponding business cycle turns. The leading index contains series with long as well as short leads, but each series leads on the average over time and shows a frequency of leads at the individual turns exceeding that attributable to chance, given the historical distribution of cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948, leads were generally more frequent and longer at peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags were generally more frequent and longer at troughs than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and classifying the indicators takes into account these well-established differences in timing. Consequently, rough coincidences include short lead$ (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact cointidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through 4-3, at troughs, where minus denotes leads and plus denotes lags in months.) For purposes of constructing a composite index, each component series is standardized: The monthto-fnonth percent changes in a given series are divided by the long-run average (without regard to sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile series are prevented from dominating the index. The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the trends of its four components. This trend, which is similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be viewed as a linear approximation to the secular movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both their trends and their average month-to-month percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index. (For a more detailed description of the method of constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.) In addition to these principal composite indexes, differentiated according to cyclical timing, there are five indexes based on leading indicators which have been grouped by economic process. Taken together, these additional indexes include all 12 component series of the overall leading index, plus a few related series. Also shown in this section is the ratio of the index of roughly coincident indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a series known to have a useful pattern of early cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of the composite indexes show the length, in months, of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference turning dates covered. The next set of data consists of series included in the principal composite indexes. These are the 12 components of the leading index, the 4 components of the coincident index, and the 6 components of the lagging index. Following the title of each series, its typical timing is identified by three letter symbols in a small box. The first of these letters refers to the timing of the given indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs combined. " L " denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a tendency to roughly coincide with the business cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency to lag. Since these series have been selected for the consistency of their timing at both peaks and troughs, all components of the leading index are denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging index uLg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that these classifications are based on limited evidence, namely the performance of the indicators during the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which included five peaks and five troughs. While the timing classifications are expected to agree with the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will not necessarily hold invariably in every instance. The timing of the series in the period since 1970 can be determined by inspection of the charts, where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and 1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of the NBER reference cycle chronology. Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process This section covers 111 individual time series, including the 22 indicators used in the construction of the composite indexes. The peak and trough timing classifications are shown on the charts in the same manner as described above, but this section includes series with different timing at peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at turning points of the given type. Eight series are unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19 series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs is included in the list of cyclical indicators. The classification scheme which groups the indicators of this section by economic process and cyclical timing is summarized in the two tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is based on the observed behavior of the series at five business cycle peaks (November f48, July '53, August '57, April '60, and December f69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business cycle troughs (October f49, May '54, April '58, February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation distinguishes seven major economic processes and four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells identify subgroups of the given economic process with the given timing characteristic. The number of series in each such group is given in parentheses following the title. Complete information on how individual indicators are classified by timing at peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected measures and scores, is provided in the 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators. Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from numerous components. How the individual components of an aggregate move over a given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index which indicates the percentage of components that are rising (with half of the unchanged components considered rising). Cyclical changes in these diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, they are computed from changes measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter) spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans. Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes are shown for the component series included in each of the three composite indexes and for the components of some of the aggregate series shown in section B. Diffusion measures can be derived not only, from actual data but also from surveys of anticipations or intentions. Indexes based on responses of business executives about their plans and expectations for several operating variables are presented, along with the corresponding indexes based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion series. This section also records rates of change for the three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate economic activity: GNP in constant dollars (quarterly), industrial production, employee hours in nonagricultural establishments, and personal income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for 1-quarter spans. Although movements in diffusion indexes and in rates of change for the same aggregates are generally positively correlated, these two measures present information about two related but distinct aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes measure the prevailing direction or scope of change, while rates of change measure the degree as well as the overall direction. As is the case for diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates of change tend to lead those of the corresponding indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead at the business cycle turns as well. Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES This part is divided into six sections which cover a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series measuring various aspects of economic activity. Some of these series are very comprehensive, pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others have to do with particular sectors or markets, and still others relate to U.S. international transactions or to selected foreign countries. The represented variables include incomes, outputs, and expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity; labor resources; government receipts, expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few key foreign countries. Section A. National Income and Product The national income and product accounts, compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and final expenditures for the personal, business, foreign, and government sectors of the economy. Section Al shows the gross national product, final sales, and personal and disposable personal income. The four major components of the gross national product—personal consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, government purchases of goods and services, and net exports of goods and services—are presented in sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in section A are presented in current as well as constant dollars. There are also a few per capita series. The national income and product accounts, briefly defined below, are described more fully in the Survey of Current Business, Part I, January 1976. Gross national product (GNP) is the market value of final goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by residents of the United States, before deduction of allowances for the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the most comprehensive measure of aggregate economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in business inventories. Personal income is the income received by persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income, proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income, and transfer payments, less personal contributions for social insurance. Disposable personal income is the personal income available for spending or saving. It consists of personal income less personal taxes and nontax payments to government. Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is goods and services purchased by individuals, operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings, and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included. Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and capital goods purchased by private business and Unemployment nonprofit institutions and the value of the change This section contains measures of the civilian in the physical volume of inventories held by private business. The former include all private labor force and its major components: Total purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for numbers of employed and unemployed persons. tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used The number of unemployed is subdivided into selected categories defined by sex, age, and class goods are also included. Government purchases of goods and services of worker. Also included are data on participation (A4) is the compensation of government employees rates for a few principal segments of the labor and purchases from business and from abroad. It force. excludes transfer payments, interest paid by Section D. Government Activities government, and subsidies. It includes gross investment by government enterprises but excludes Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surtheir current outlays. It includes net purchases of plus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels: used goods and excludes sales and purchases of (1) Federal Government and (2) State and local land and financial assets. government. Also shown is a selection of series Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports from the discontinued Defense Indicators, less imports of goods and services. Exports are part These series measure defense activities which of the national production; imports are not, but are influence short-term changes in the national included in the components of GNP and are economy. Included are series relating to therefore deducted. More detail on U.S. obligations, contracts, orders, production, international transactions is provided in section E. shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment. National income (A6) is the incomes that These series are grouped according to the time at originate in the production of goods and services which the activities they measure occur in the attributable to labor and property supplied by defense order-production-delivery process. Series residents of the United States. Thus, it measures measuring activities which usually precede prothe factor costs of the goods and services pro- duction, such as contract awards and new orders, duced. It consists of the compensation of are classified as "advance measures of defense employees, proprietors' income, rental income of activity." Series measuring activities which tend to persons, corporate profits, and net interest. coincide with production, such as employment, and Saving (A7) is the difference between income activities which usually follow production, such as and expenditures during an accounting period. shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final Total gross saving includes personal saving, measures of defense activity." business saving (mainly undistributed corporate profits and capital consumption allowances), and Section E. U.S. International Transactions government surplus or deficit. This group includes monthly series on exports Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The major expenditure components of GNP (excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a (consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as few selected components of these aggregates. Also percentages of GNP, and the major income shown are the balances between receipts and components of national income (compensation of expenditures for goods and services, merchandise, employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as and investment income. percentages of national income. Section F. International Comparisons This section is designed to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which we have important trade The important data on price movements include relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has the monthly consumer and producer price indexes been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial and their major components. Based largely on production, consumer prices, and stock prices for these series are the quarterly price indexes from Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Gerthe national income and product accounts, notably many, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corthe GNP implicit price deflator (with weights responding U.S. series. Also included is an inreflecting the changing proportions of different dustrial production index for the European expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixed- countries in the Organization for Economic weighted price index for the gross business prod- Cooperation and Development (OECD). The inuct. Data on both levels and percent changes are dustrial production series provide cyclically senpresented for the period since 1973. sitive output measures for large parts of the The group of series on wages and productivity economies covered. Changes in consumer price inconsists of data on average hourly earnings and dexes (plotted for the period since 1973) provide average hourly compensation (including earnings important measures of the rates of inflation in the and other benefits) in current and constant dollars, major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also output per hour of work in the business sector, and shown beginning in 1973) tend to be significant as leading indicators. rates of change for most of these measures. Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity HOW TO READ CHARTS Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded area) as designated by NBER. Basic Data Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are plotted. ("9" = September) Solid line indicates monthly data. (Data may be actual monthly figures or moving averages.) Dotted line indicates anticipated data. Broken line indicates actual monthly data for series where a moving average is plotted. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter) Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data. Parallel lines indicates a break in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.). Diffusion Indexes Solid line indicates monthly data over 6- or 9-month spans. Broken line indicates monthly data over 1-month spans. Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual series. "Scale A " is an arithmetic scale, "scale L-1" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles in that distance, etc. Arabic number indicates latest month for which data are used in computing the indexes. Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over 1-quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter for which data are used in computing the indexes. Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans. Diffusion indexes and rates of change are centered within the spans they cover. Trough (T) of cycle indicates end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER. Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over various spans. Rates of Change Solid line indicates percent changes over 3- or 6-month spans. Arabic number indicates latest month used in computing the changes. Broken line indicates percent changes over 1*month spans. Broken line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 1-quarter spans. Solid line with plotting points indicates percent changes over 3-or4-quarter spans. Roman number indicates latest quarter used in computing the changes. HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES 1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key Words and phrases of the series titles, o r - 2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of the report where series are listed numerically according to series numbers within each of the report's sections. Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators Basic data9 Unit of measure Series title and timing classification1 Percent change Annual average 1983 1984 3dQ 1984 4th Q 1984 IstQ 1985 Feb. 1985 Mar. 1985 Apr. 1985 Feb. to Mar. 1985 Mar. to Apr. 1985 3dQ to 4th Q 1984 4th Q to IstQ 1985 1 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS Al. Convosite Indexes 910. 920. 930 940. Twelve leading indicators Four roughly coincident indicators Six lagging indicators Ratio, coincident index to lagging index.., Leading Indicator Subgroups: 914 Capita) investment commitments 915. Inventory investment and purchasing.. . 916 Profitability 917. Money and financial Haws L.L.L.. 1967=-100 do C,C,C... do Lg,Lg Lg... do L,L,L... . 156.0 139.9 111.7 125.4 165.8 154.4 117.4 131.5 164.8 155.8 120.0 129.9 164.6 157.2 122.3 128.5 167.2 158.0 125.5 125.8 167.6 157.8 125.5 125.7 167.7 158.4 126.5 125.2 167.4 158.6 126.0 125*9 0.1 0.4 0.8 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 -0.4 0.6 -0.1 0.9 1.9 -1 .1 1.6 0.5 2.6 -2,1 910 920 93 0 940 do 108.8 do do do 102.8 104.7 130.7 110.3 105.3 110,8 136.5 110.1 104.0 111 .4 137.4 109.5 103.2 112,5 136,1 110.3 102.6 NA 138.7 111 .5 102.7 113.8 138. 7 110.2 102.6 NA 138.3 109.4 103.1 NA NA - 1 .2 -0.1 NA -0.3 -0.7 0.5 NA NA -0.5 -0.8 1 .0 -0.9 0.7 -0.6 NA 1 .9 914 915 916 91 7 40.1 3.0 426 40.7 3.4 366 40.5 3.3 364 40.5 3.4 396 40.3 3.3 3 90 40.0 3.3 402 40.4 3.3 389 40.3 3.4 387 1 .0 0. 3.2 -0.2 0.1 0.5 0. 0.1 -8.8 -0.5 -0,1 1 .5 1 21 5 L,Lg,U... Ratio L.Lg.U... 1967=100 0.271 96 0.459 131 0.464 132 0.504 139 0.491 139 0.496 140 0.489 138 0.463 - 0 . 0 0 7 - 0 . 0 2 6 131 - 1 .4 -5.1 0.040 5.3 -0.013 0. 60 46 U,C,C... A.r,, bil. hrs U,C,C... Millions do C,C,C... L,C,U... Thousands 168.15 97.45 90.14 23,394 1 7 6 . 8 7 17 7.81 1 7 8 . 4 7 101 .68 102.00 102.66 94.16 94.56 95.44 2 4 , 9 0 5 25,056 2 5 , 1 5 4 180.10 103.39 96.24 25,300 179.51 103.34 96.16 25,235 180.90 103.76 96.51 25,326 180.43 103.52 96.73 25,361 0.8 0.4 0.4 0,4 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 48 42 41 40 LLL. . L,L,L... L L,L... L.L.L.. B. CycRcal Indicators by Economic Process B l . Employment and Unemployment Marginal Employment Adjustments: • 1 . Average weekly hours, mfg 21. Average weekly overtime hours, mfg.3 •5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted4) L,L,L... Hours L,C,L... do L,C,L... Thousands lob Vacancies: 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3 46, Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Comprehensive Employment: 48. Employee hours in nonagricutUiral establishments. 42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities.... * 4 1 . Employees on nonagricultural payrolls 40, Employees in goods producing industries 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age3 Comprehensive Unemployment: 37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted') 43. Unemployment rate (inverted) 1 45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv.<)> * 9 1 . Average duration of unemployment (inverted4) 44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)3 U,Lg,U... Percent L,Lg,U... L,Lg,U... L.Lg.U... Lg,Lg,Lg... Lg.Lg.Lg... Thousands Percent do Weeks. Percent 57.15 58.79 58.89 59.07 59.38 59.35 59.55 59.41 0.20 -0.14 0.18 0.31 90 10,717 9.6 3.8 20.0 3.8 8,539 7.5 2.8 18.2 2.4 8,447 7.5 2.7 17.6 2.3 8,233 7.2 2.8 17.1 2 .1 8,426 7.3 2.9 15.7 2.1 8,399 7.3 3.0 15.9 2.1 8,396 7.3 2.9 15.9 2.1 8,426 7.3 2,8 16.1 2.1 0. 0. 0.1 0. 0. -0.4 2,5 0.3 -0.1 2.8 0.2 -2.3 -0.1 -0.1 8.2 0. 37 43 45 91 44 1534.7 1284.6 1639.3 1366,5 1645.2 1375.5 1662.4 1389.5 1665.4 1398,5 1401 .0 1403 .3 0.2 0.2 1 .0 1 .0 0.2 0,6 50 1398.5 1095.0 1177.4 1186.6 1200.2 1202.9 1202.3 1205.8 1208.4 0.3 0 .2 1 .1 0.2 0. 0.1 -1.3 0. B2. Production and Income Comprehensive Output and Income: 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars 52, Personal income in 1972 dollars , *51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1972 dollars . . 53. Wages and salaries in 1972 dolltrs, mining, mfg, and construction . C,C,C... A.r., bil. dol do. C C,C. 52 CC C 51 do C.C.C... 213.5 224.8 225.4 226.3 228.4 227.8 228.4 228.0 0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.9 53 Industrial Production: •4?. Industrial production 73. Industrial production, durable mfrs 74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs 49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars C,C,C... 1967 = 100 do. . . . CC,C... do C,L,L.... C,C,C... A.r., bil. dol Capacity Utilization: 82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg3 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials' 147.6 134.5 168.1 688.6 163.3 154.6 179.4 764.5 165.6 157.4 181 .3 766.8 164.7 157.4 179.5 778.8 L.C.U.... Percent do L,C,U.... 75.2 75.2 81 .6 82.0 82.5 82.9 81 .6 80.8 L.L.L.... Bil. dol L,L,L... do 87.74 36.96 100.56 41 .44 165.4 158.2 179.1 773.2 165.3 158.0 178.9 165.8 159.0 178.9 165.4 1 58.4 178.8 0.3 0 .6 0. -0.2 - 0 .4 -0.1 -0,5 0 . - 1 .0 0.4 0 .5 -0,2 47 73 74 49 80.9 80.8 81 .0 80.8 80.5 80.2 O.I 0. -0.5 -0.6 -0 .9 -2.1 -0.6 -0.1 82 84 1 0 2 . 5 5 102.47 41 . 9 0 41 .87 99.73 40 .66 100 .70 41 .05 -2.7 -2.9 3 7.83 0.75 349.67 48 36.99 -2.44 347.23 46 38.02 - 1 .47 345.76 44 -2.2 -3.19 -0.7 -2 2.8 0.97 -0.4 -2 0.7 -3.55 -1.4 -8 1.9 2.23 0,5 -2 0 25 96 32 4 1 8 . 73 4 1 8 . 6 7 1 7 9 . 0 4 179.09 162.2 162.0 111 . 4 4 112.10 52.99 53.30 103 . 2 94.5 93.7 420.17 179.40 162.5 111 .27 52.83 NA NA 161 .9 112.22 53.11 0.4 0.2 0.3 -0.7 -0.9 NA NA -0.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.4 1 .0 56 57 75 54 59 0, 1.0 1 .3 1.0 -0.3 2.0 1 .5 fi 0 u . y -3.9 -2.7 NA -0.1 NA - 1 .2 2.3 81 . 0 80.7 B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Orders and Deliveries: 6. Mfrs.' new orders, durable goods 7. Mfrs.' new orders In 1972 dollars, oVable goods *8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods and materials 25. Change in mfrs/ unfilled orders, durable goods' 96. Mfrs.1 unfilled orders, durable goods* •32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries3 ( u ) 34.07 LLL do do 2.69 L,L,L... L,Lg,a... Bii'.'doK, E0P7. 3 2 0 . 1 2 54 L,L,L... Percent Consumption and Trade: 56. Manufacturing and trade sales *57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars 75. Industrial production, consumer goods 54. Sates of retail stores 59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles 58. Index of consumer sentiment ( ? ) C,C,C... C,C,C..., C,L,C... C,L,U.... U,L,U.... L,C,C... L,L,L... 100.68 100.75 41 .38 41 .32 37.33 37.04 38.00 37.29 2.11 1 .92 - 1 .63 0.60 345.44 350.34 345.44 3 4 7 . 2 3 61 57 49 47 3 6 8 . 7 7 411 .30 4 1 2 . 6 0 Bil, dol 161 .70 1 7 6 . 0 8 1 7 6 . 6 0 do 151 .7 161 .6 1967=100 162.6 97.86 108.08 107,78 Bil. dol 47.75 do 51.76 51 .70 88.3 A.r., bil.dol 102.3 100.9 87.5 Q 1966=100. 97.5 98.9 417.83 178.44 162.1 109.92 52.48 101 .8 95.0 93.7 94.6 1 .0 1 .0 0.1 -0.1 1 .8 1 .4 1 A 1 . H -0.5 6 7 Q 55 58 B4. Fixed Capital Investment Formation of Business Enterprises: •12. Net business formation 13. New business incorporations Business Investment Commitments: 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment •20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars 24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods.. 27. Mfrs.' new orders in 1972 dollars, nondefense capital goods L,L,L... 1967 = 100 L,L,L... Number L,L,L... Bil. dol L.L.L... L,L,L... LLL 114.8 50,162 117.1 52,960 118.2 52,017 116.8 53,193 117.1 NA 118.4 NA 115.2 NA 115.1 NA 0.3 NA 12 13 26.68 31 . 2 8 31 .91 31 .01 30.95 33.73 31 .77 29.85 -5.8 -6.0 -2.8 do do 13.40 22.73 15.41 26.95 15.49 27.42 15.01 26 .33 15.75 26.78 18.56 29.49 15.89 27.21 14.47 25.32 -14.4 -7.7 -8.9 -6.9 -3.1 -4.0 4.9 1 .7 20 24 do 11 .72 13.63 13.65 13.10 14.07 16.85 14.06 12.65 -16.6 -10.0 -4.0 7.4 27 -0.2 10 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Percent change Basic data' Series title and timing classification1 Annual average of measure 1983 3d Q 1984 1984 4th Q 1984 1st Q 1985 Feb. 1985 Mar. 1985 Feb. to Mar. 1985 Apr. 1985 3dQ to 4th Q 1984 Mar. to Apr. 1985 4th Q to 1st Q 1985 E .i 1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con. B4. Fixed Capital Investment-Con. Business Investment Commitments—Con.: 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space L,C,U,... Mil.sq.ft 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg U,Lg,U.... Bil. dol 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.s C,Lg,Lg.... Bil. doL, EOP ... Business Investment Expenditures: 61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment C,Lg,Lg.... A.r.,bil.dol 69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business ...do construction expenditures C,Lg,Lg.... 76. Industrial production, business equipment C,Lg,U.... 1967=100 86. Nonresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars C,Lg,C... A f bil dol Residential Construction Commitments and Investment: 28. New private housing units started *29. Building permits, new private housing units 89. Residential fixed investment in 1972 dollars 63.56 2 2 OO 73.50 304.78 78.07 'in 1 A 97.24 353.54 3 2 0 * 6 2 376.90 153.3 181 .0 204.9 1 71 . 0 L,L,L... Ax, thousands.. L,L,L.... 1967 = 100 L,L,L... A x , bil. dol 1 ,703 131 . 1 53.7 1 ,747 134.6 60.2 83.17 9 ft Q ft 9 7.24 83.68 NA NA 361 . 1 2 3 6 7 . 2 1 380 .05 382.66 186.5 209.5 398.88 188.4 213 . 8 391.85 188.6 215.2 1 ,598 124.7 59.2 1,793 132.9 59.4 79.35 0 1 SO 95.90 1 ,663 123.6 60.1 82.48 87.41 91 . 9 5 6.0 5.2 4.8 C 1 .4 390.82 188.4 408.21 188.1 1 ,647 129.5 1 ,883 138.8 NA 187.5 4.4 -0.2 NA -0.3 1 ,913 135.9 14.3 7.2 1.6 -2.1 0.6 9 1 i ft NA 97 1 .7 3.5 61 4*2 1 .0 2 .1 -1 .8 0.1 0.7 69 76 86 12 . 2 6.6 0.3 28 29 89 -3.9 0.9 -1.5 B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment Inventory Investment: 30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars3 L,L,L... *36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on 3 do order in 1972 dollars (smoothed') L.L.L... do 31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories, book value1 L,L,I 38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies 1 Bil. dol on hand and on order book value » ... L,L,I Inventories on Hand and on Order: 71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value5..... 70 Mfg and trade inventories in 1972 dollars5 65 Mfrs' inventories finished goods book value* *77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1972 dollars3 78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order, book value1 Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... do Lg Lg,Lg... do Lg Lg,Lg.... Lg,Lg,Lg.... Ratio L,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP ... -3.6 24.8 1.98 11.1 21 . 2 9 53.2 16.86 52.2 1 .45 0.71 0.79 520.28 259.02 80.96 573.43 278.97 89.69 565.48 276.10 88.55 30.6 16.8 19.6 -13.8 2.8 30 11 . 4 0 31 . 8 8.21 18.9 8.90 37.7 12.52 -9.4 NA NA 3.62 -47.1 NA NA -5.46 -20.4 -3.19 -12.9 36 31 -0.97 -0.48 -3.07 NA -2.59 NA -2.47 0.71 38 578.16 282.76 90.12 578.94 282.32 89.86 578.16 282.76 90.12 NA NA NA -0.1 0.2 0.3 NA NA NA 1 .4 1 .0 1 .3 0.8 1 .4 0.5 71 70 65 -1.68 5 73.43 278.97 89.69 1 .59 1.54 1.55 NA 0. NA 0.01 0.02 77 208.73 217.30 222.35 217.30 214.40 217.47 214.40 NA -1 .4 NA -2.3 - 1 .3 78 1 .24 258.5 1.03 -0.3 7 278.9 -0.19 -0.73 276.6 -0.88 -0.12 265.5 -0.48 - 1 .00 253.8 -0.77 - 1 .69 253.1 -0.81 -0.58 252.4 -0.97 -0.28 257.1 -0.64 1.11 -0.3 -0.16 0.30 1 .9 0.33 0.61 -4.0 0.40 -0.88 -4.4 -0.29 98 23 99 160.41 160.46 160.54 165.19 177.30 180.88 179.42 180.62 -0.8 0.7 2.9 7.3 19 1 .58 1 .56 1 .58 1 .58 B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits Sensitive Commodity Prices: 98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3 23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials© •99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed*)3 L,L,I Percent U,L,L... 1967=100 L,L,L... Percent Stock Prices: *19. Stock prices, 500 common s t o c k s © L,L,l Profits and Profit Margins: 16. Corporate profits after tax 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1972 dollars 79. Corporate profits after tax with tVA and CCAdj 80 do in 1972 dollars 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg.3 26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol do L r L f L... do L,C,L... do L,C,L... L,L,L... Cents L,L,L... 1977 = 100 127.4 60.5 149.4 71.2 4.0 98.0 145.9 68.0 195.9 92.0 4.6 99.6 141 . 7 65.7 199.8 93.6 4.5 99.7 141 .0 65.0 203.9 95.0 4.3 100.1 140.0 63.8 209.8 96.8 NA 99.6 -0.5 - 1 .1 2.1 1.5 -0.2 0.4 -0.7 - 1 .8 2.9 1 .9 NA -0.5 16 18 79 80 15 26 Cash Flows: 34. Corporate net cash flow nS Tnrnnrfttp nft rash flow in 197? dollars LJ.,L... A.r.,bil.dol LL L do 318.9 149.3 367.3 16 9 . 2 366.7 16 8 4 375.3 171.3 382.6 173 . 2 2.3 1 .7 1 .9 1 .1 34 35 156.0 157.7 158.0 158.4 161 . 4 0.3 1 .9 63 0.3 1 .7 68 1.8 0.5 1 .2 -0.2 62 62 0 .5 64 1941-43=10... Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share: 63. Unit labor cost, business sector Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1977 = 100 68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfinancial corporations Lg,Lg,Lg.... Dollars 62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. a) Actual data Lg,Lg,Lg.... 1967 = 100 •b) Actual data as percent of trend3 Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent 64. Compensation of employees as percent of do 1 .409 1.425 1 .434 1.438 1 .463 219.6 95.4 218.5 90.1 216.8 88.7 220.8 89.2 223.5 89.0 75.0 73 . 4 73 . 4 73 . 4 73 . 9 0.78 0.95 0.88 214.0 886.2 0.47 0.67 0.92 219.5 91 7 . 2 0 ,26 0.57 0.91 220 . 1 91 9.6 0 .42 0.91 0.81 220.0 932.3 6 . 4 82 1 .300 6.720 1.323 6.728 1.328 6.791 1 .320 L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol do L,L,L... do L,L,L... L,L,L... A.r., percent..., A.r., bil. dol L,L.,I 37.55 3.28 47.73 5.7 390 . 9 9 99.73 53.67 76.36 15.2 447.31 Percent, EOP .. 1 .94 2.0 9 223.3 88.9 223.5 88.6 223.6 88.2 0.1 -0.3 0. -0.4 0 . B7. Money and Credit Honey: 85 Chanee in monev SUDDIV M l 3 102. Change in money supply M23 104 Chanee in total liauid assets3 105 Money supply M l in 1972 dollars *106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars Velocity of Money: 1(17 Ratin RNP to mnnev SUDDIV M l ' 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23 Credit 33. 112 113. *111. 110 Flows: Net change in mortgage debt5 Net change in business loans3 Net change in consumer installment credit3 Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3 Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers Credit Difficulties: 39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted4)3 s .;... do L LL do L,C,U... do L LL ... L,L,L... Bil dol do L,L,L... . C C C Ratio do C,Lg,C... L,L,L... 121.04 60.35 32.31 39.52 69.94 74.12 14.2 9.9 3 5 8 . 8 9 521 .42 2 110 2.09 - 0.80 0.79 0.63 224.0 952.5 1 .19 0.92 0.67 224.6 954.8 0.47 0.32 0.54 224.6 953.3 0.51 -0.07 NA 224.9 949.1 -0.72 -0.60 -0.13 0. -0.2 0.04 -0.39 NA 0.1 -0.4 0.16 0.34 -0.10 0. 1 .4 0.38 -0.12 -0.18 1.8 2.2 85 102 104 105 106 6.719 1,300 1 .297 1 .300 1 .308 0.003 0.008 0.063 -0.008 -0.072 -0.020 107 10« NA 45.16 31 . 0 7 24.16 9 8 . 4 2 108.49 12.1 9.4 NA NA 30.11 100.10 13.1 NA 2.44 NA NA 2.19 2.40 NA 2.40 NA - 6 0 . 6 9 NA 5.95 - 2 7 . 6 7 7.21 4.18 NA -8.39 -4.3 NA 3.7 45 .3 -0.21 NA 0.01 NA -8.45 24.30 2.2 NA -0.31 33 112 113 111 11C 3S Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Percent change Basic data'' Unit of measure Series title and timing classification1 Annual average 1983 1984 3dQ 1984 4th Q 1984 1st Q 1985 Feb. 1985 Mar. 1985 Apr. 1985 Mar. 1985 Mar. to Apr. 198S 3dQ to 4tti Q 4th Q 1984 to 1st Q 1985 I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con. B7. Monty and Credit-Con. Bank Reserves: Interest Rates: 119. Federal funds r a t e 3 ® 114. Discount rate on new Treasury b i l l s ' ® 116. Yield on new high-grade corporate bonds3 © 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 ® 117. Yield on municipal bonds3 © 118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages 8 ® S7. Bank rates on short-term business loans 3 © •109. Average prime rate charged by banks3 (u) Outstanding Debt: 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding5 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding •101, Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972 dollars •95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to personal income3 -621 1 ,426 -386 1 ,289 -827 1 ,593 -584 1 ,323 441 304 -243 -270 -2,533 •2,454 -3,264 -3,181 8.48 8.18 12.57 11 .43 9.64 13.24 10.10 10.54 8.50 8.22 12.39 11 .35 9.65 13.27 8.58 8.57 12.85 11 .78 9.77 13.43 8.27 8.00 12.45 11 .42 9.42 12.97 0.08 0.35 0.46 0.43 0 .12 0.16 -0.31 -0.5 7 -0.40 -0.36 -0.3 5 -0.46 10.50 10.50 10.50 0. -2.12 -1.37 -1 .09 -0.97 -0.05 -1.15 -2.00 -1 .19 -0.79 -0.79 -0.06 0.06 -0. 0.13 -1,19 -1.26 NA 0.1 4.3 3.4 5.4 2.3 3.7 2.5 0.34 0.51 0 .7 0.7 -0.1 0 -0.3 0 -0.4 0.1 0 0.1 1 0 0 0 -0.2 -0.2 -3.3 -0.5 1 .0 0. Mil. dol do -545 - 3 , 0 4 6 - 6 , 4 1 8 -3,885 4,607 7,061 1 ,034 3,730 l,Lg,lg.. C,Lg,Lg.. Uig-U• C,Lg,Lg.. U,Lg,Lg.. Lg,Lg,Lg.. Lg,Lg,Lg.. Lg,Lg,U- Percent 9.09 8.62 12.25 10.84 9.51 13.11 10.64 10.79 Lg,Lg,lg.. Lg,Lg,Lg.. NA Bil. dol., EOP.. 376.01 452.37 433.84 452.37 4 7 6 . 9 8 468.64 476.98 Bil. dol 264.66 299.73 308.95 319.59 3 2 7 . 0 7 326.91 329.42 3 2 9 . 6 2 1.8 0.8 Lg.U,Lg- 104.02 115.04 118.45 122.86 125.98 125.93 127.09 1 2 6 . 9 2 0.9 93. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 5 ® 94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve9 ® L U u - .Ug,U.. ....do ....do do do do ....do ....do Lg,tg,lg.. Percent 10.22 9.57 13.37 11 .99 10.10 13.82 12.02 12.04 11 .39 10.34 13.72 12.34 10.17 14.26 13.29 12.99 9.27 8.97 12.63 11.37 10.12 13.11 11 .29 11 .80 -0.1 12.73 13.85 14.06 14.40 14.91 14.93 15.11 NA 0.18 1972=100... 1967 = 100... Percent 1967=100... do do ....do do ....do ....do 215.3 298.4 0.3 291 .7 303.1 315.7 323.6 312.3 287.2 284.6 223 311 0.3 302.9 310.3 322.6 331 .0 320.0 294.1 2 90.4 224.6 313.1 0.4 303.7 310.6 323.1 328.8 320.4 295.3 2 90.3 226.1 315.4 0.3 306.2 309.8 323.4 327.4 320.7 295.3 2 90.7 229.2 317.4 0.3 308.7 309.2 322.8 316 .6 319.2 298 290.7 317.4 0.3 309.3 309.2 322.5 316.1 318.9 298.4 290.3 318.8 0.5 309 308 322 311 318.4 299 290.7 320 0 308 309 323.8 307.7 319.1 299.7 291 .9 0.4 0.2 0. -0 - 0 .2 0 -1 .5 -0.2 0.4 0.1 1977-100... 155.3 162.8 161 .0 162.1 163.6 163.8 164.2 164.4 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.9 94 161 98 103 103.4 94.7 168.9 98.6 107.4 106.6 94.5 168.9 98.1 107.2 106.3 94.4 170.5 98.1 108.0 106.9 94.5 172.9 98.7 107.5 106.5 94.6 94.4 94.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.9 0 0.7 0.6 0 1 0 -0.5 -0.4 0.4 0.4 0. -1 .1 1 .7 -0.9 -1 .9 -0.1 -0.2 0.4 2.0 0.6 -4.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 -2.5 -2 -2.5 -1.9 -1 .7 0.9 0 2.3 0.8 3.4 4.1 1.1 0. 0.3 0.3 0. -0.1 -0.7 0. 0 .1 -0.1 -0.1 0. 7 1 .8 -17.2 2.2 3.7 8.0 2.9 1.5 36.7 6.6 1 .2 -1.9 1 .1 1 .7 NA II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B. Prices, Wsjcs, 2nd Productivity Bl. Price Movements 310. 320. 320c. 322. 330. 335. 331332. 333. 334. Implicit price deflator for gross national product Consumer price index for ail urban consumers (CPI-U) ® . . Change in CPKJ (S/A) 3 Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food Producer price index (PPI), all commodities® PPI, industrial commodities® PPI, crude materials for furtiier processing PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components PPI, capital equipment PPI, finished consumer goods 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 0 0.4 -1.2 0.2 0 0.4 B2. Wajes and Productivity 340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls 341. Real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls.... 345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector 346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector... 370. Output per hour, business sector 358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector do do do '. do do C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 441. 442. 37. 444. 445. 446. 447. Civilian labor force Civilian employment Number of persons unemployed Number unemployed, males 20 years and over Number unemployed, females 20 years and over Number unemployed, both sexes 16 19 years of age Number unemployed, full-time workers Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates: .451. Males 20 years and over3 452, Females 20 years and over3, 453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age". Millions ....do Thousands.., ....do do do do Percent ....do ....do 111.55 113.54 113.75 114.18 115.16 115.08 115.51 115.37 100.83 105.00 105.31 105.95 106.73 1 0 6 . 6 8 107.12 106.94 8,539 8,3 96 10,717 8,233 8,399 8,447 8,426 8,426 3,932 3,731 5,257 3,846 3,738 3,774 3,768 3,80 7 3,107 3,179 3,632 3,129 3,051 3,126 3,155 3,197 1,499 1,485 1,472 1 ,444 1,503 1,499 1,829 1 ,422 7,057 6,821 6,958 9,075 6,837 6,954 6,913 6,852 78.5 53.1 53.5 78.3 53.7 53.9 78.3 53.8 53.9 -178.6 - 1 7 5 . 8 641 .1 704 819.7 880.5 44.1 52.9 478.2 523.6 434.1 470.7 -180.6 706.2 886.8 47.6 524.6 477.0 78.3 53.9 53.8 78.2 54.6 55.6 78.2 54.5 55.7 78.2 54.8 56.0 78.2 54.7 55.3 D. Government Activities D l . Receipts and Expenditures 500. 501. 502. 510. 511. 512. Federal Government surplus or deficit. Federal Government receipts., Federal Government expenditures . . State and local government surplus or deficit3. State and local government receipts State and local government expenditures. . A.r., bil. dol , do. ..do.. . ..do.. do do - 1 9 7 . 8 -161 .1 721 .9 769.3 919.7 930.5 55.6 53.7 539.7 545.8 484.0 492.1 02. Defense Indicators 517. 525. 548. 557. Defense Department gross obligations incurred Defense Department prime contract awards Mfrs.' new orders, defense products Industrial production, defense and space equipment... 570. Employment, defense products industries 564. Federal Government purchases for national defense., Mil. dol.. ...do.. ..do.. 1967-100... Thousands A.r., bi!. do!,., 20,635 22,437 22,092 25,466 21 ,072 20,377 20,3 46 10,787 12,942 11 ,396 15,157 12,099 12,805 1 0 , 0 8 8 6,773 7,569 7,452 7,664 7,336 6,240 4,708 119.9 142.7 135.6 137.4 146 .5 145.9 147.8 1 ,355 1 ,436 1,453 1 ,481 1,515 1,524 1,515 200.5 231.6 221 .5 220.3 233.6 Mil. dol. . do . do . do.... do.. do 16,722 18,137 18,496 18,649 18,567 1 7 , 8 5 3 18,446 3,011 3,146 3,137 2,741 3,118 2,842 2,436 3,536 3,875 3 , 7 6 9 4,126 4,013 3,970 4,160 21,513 27,132 2 8 , 8 7 0 26,6 82 28,137 27,985 28,129 4,314 3,750 4,340 4,689 4,319 3,833 3,411 3,716 4,425 4,999 4,243 2,937 3,787 4,007 NA NA 6,612 148.8 NA -0.2 -21 .2 32.5 1 .3 0.6 NA NA 6.0 0.7 NA 15.3 33.0 -1 3.9 1 .9 5.1 -17.3 -20.2 -3.1 2.7 2.3 0.9 0 -0.6 6.5 -7.6 -0.1 -7.3 -0.4 -12.1 2.8 5.5 -13.1 19.1 E. U.S. International Transactions El. Merchandise Trade 602. 604. 606. 612. 614. 616. Exports, excluding military aid shipments . .. Exports of domestic agricultural products. Exports of nonelectrical machinery. General imports Imports of petroleum and petroleum products... Imports of automobiles and p a r t s . . . . 3.3 -14.3 4.8 0.5 -11 .0 -15.1 Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued Basic dataUnit of measure Series title Percent change Annual average 1982 4th Q 1983 1983 1st Q 1984 2dQ 1984 3d Q 4th Q 1984 1984 1st Q 1985 2dQ to 3dQ 4th Q 3dQ 1984 4th Q 1984 1st Q 1985 -8.19 2.5 9.3 -7.01 1 .6 9.9 4.0 8.2 11 .10 0.8 -8.5 8.02 1 .4 -8.2 0.9 -5.2 NA NA NA -3.94 -0.5 4.5 NA NA 1.4 0.4 0.1 -0.2 2.0 1 .0 0.7 1 .7 1.0 0 1.9 1 .5 0.9 0.6 1 .6 0.2 0 0 0.3 -0.4 -0 1 ,2 0.2 -1 .1 -0.9 0.4 -0.3 2.5 0.9 1 .5 0.9 2.9 3.3 0.6 -0.1 1 .8 0.8 2.1 1 .3 2.5 2.1 1 .2 0.9 2.6 1.3 II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con. E2. Goods and Services Movements Except Transfers Under Military Grants 667. 668. 669. 622. 618. 620. 651. 652. Balance on goods and services3 Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Balance on merchandise trade1 Merchandise exports, adjusted Merchandise imports, adjusted Income on U.S. investment abroad Income on foreign investment in the United States • .. . .do. .do. .do. ..do. . do ..do. -0.28 87.36 87.65 -9.12 52.80 61 .92 20.96 14.01 -8.23 -22.61 83.05 90.5 9 91 .28 113.20 -15.26 - 2 6 . 8 6 50.06 55.08 65.33 81 .94 19.25 21 .90 13.37 17.38 •14.13 - 1 7 . 5 2 - 2 2 . 5 5 - 3 0 . 7 4 - 1 9 . 6 4 NA 84.91 90 . 6 5 88.86 NA 91 .78 91 .05 99.04 1 0 8 . 1 8 111 .41 121 .79 111 .43 NA -19.41 - 2 5 . 2 3 - 2 5 . 4 0 - 3 2 . 4 1 - 2 4 . 3 9 - 2 8 . 3 3 56 .07 54.68 51 .83 53.75 55.56 56.35 84.40 80.08 71.24 78.99 87.97 80 . 7 5 NA 20.82 19.61 21.66 23 .30 21 .85 NA 17.36 14.49 18.78 17.81 15.55 3304.8 1534.7 6,543 1538.3 2340.1 1095.4 4,670 3431.7 1572.7 6,681 1565.4 2428.6 1124.3 4,776 A. National Income and Product Al. GNP and Personal Income 200. 50. 217. 213. 224. 225. 227. Gro^s national product Gross national product in 1972 dollars Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars Final sales in 1972 dollars Disposable personal income ... Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars.., 230. 231. 232. 233. 236. 238. 237. Total Total in 1972 dollars Durable goods Durable goods in 1972 dollars Nondurable goods Nondurable goods in 1972 dollars... Services 3662.8 1639.3 6,926 1614.5 2576.8 1169.0 4,939 3758.7 1662.4 6,998 1645.6 2644.5 1186 .7 4,996 A.r., bil.dol.. ...do A.r., dollars.. A.r., bil.dol.. do., do.. A.r.r dollars.. 3069.3 1480.0 6,370 1490.4 2180.5 1058.3 4,555 A.r,, bil.dol. 1 9 8 4 . 9 2 1 5 5 . 9 2 3 4 1 . 8 2230 .2 2 2 7 6 . 5 2 3 3 2 . 7 2361 .4 2396 ,5 2 4 4 6 . 1 9 6 3 . 3 1009.2 1062.4 1032.4 1 0 4 4 . 1 1 0 6 4 . 2 1065.9 1075.4 1089.2 245.1 326 .3 334.5 279.8 318.8 299.8 317.2 310.9 320.7 140.5 177.0 157.5 178.0 173.7 178.6 182.9 186.8 167.2 757.5 801 .7 841 .3 8 5 8 . 3 861 .4 856.9 866.5 877.0 823.0 363.1 376.3 396.6 395.5 395.0 398.4 393.5 3 83 .2 3 8 7 . 1 982.2 1074.4 1166.1 1107.5 1124.4 1 1 5 3 . 7 1182.8 1 2 0 3 . 8 1234.6 459.8 483 . 4 4 8 8 . 9 493.5 497.5 504.0 475.4 490.8 482.0 3553.3 1610 .9 6,829 1579.3 2502.2 1147.6 4,86 5 3644.7 1638.8 6,933 1618.5 2554.3 1165.3 4,930 3694.6 1645.2 6,943 1614.6 2606.4 1176.5 4,965 3817.1 1665.4 6,995 1645.9 2653.4 1181.5 4,963 A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures 239. Services in 1972 dollars ..do.. ,. r do.. .do.. ..do.., .do.,, A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment 240, 241, 242, 243, 245. 30. Total Total in 1972 dollars Fixed investment Fixed investment in 1972 dollars Change in business inventories3 Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars1 414.9 194.3 441 .0 204.7 -26.1 -10.4 471 .6 221 .0 485.1 224.6 -13.5 -3.6 637.8 289.9 579.6 265.1 58.2 24.8 540.0 249.5 527.3 242.2 12.7 7.2 623.8 285.5 550.0 253.9 73.8 31.6 627.0 283 .9 576.4 263.7 50.6 20.3 662.8 300.2 591.0 26 9 . 6 71.8 30.6 637.8 289.9 601 .1 273.1 36.6 16.8 651 .2 294.1 610.6 274.6 40.6 19.6 5.7 5.7 2.5 2.2 21 .2 10.3 -3. -3.4 1 .7 1 .3 -35.2 -13.8 2.1 1 .4 1 .6 0.5 4.0 2.8 .do.. ..do.. ..do. ..do... ..do... .do.. 6 50.5 292.7 258.9 117.0 391.5 175.7 685.5 291.9 26 9.7 116.2 415.8 175.7 747.4 302.1 295.4 122.5 452.0 179.6 691 .4 288.8 266.3 113.0 425.1 175.8 704.4 289.5 267.6 112.2 436.8 177,3 743.7 302.1 296 .4 123.2 447.4 178.9 761 .0 306.1 302.0 125.0 458.9 181 .1 780.5 310.5 315.7 129.6 464.8 180.9 789.0 309.1 316.8 128.2 472.2 181 .0 2.3 1.3 1.9 1 .5 2.6 1 .2 2.6 1.4 4.5 3.7 1 .3 -0.1 1 .1 -0.5 0.3 -1 .1 1 .6 ...do.. ...do.. 19.0 29.7 348.4 147.6 329.4 118.0 -8.3 12.6 336.2 139.5 344.4 126,9 -64.2 -15.0 364.3 146.0 428.5 161 .1 -29.8 2.0 346 .1 141 .0 375.9 139.1 -51 .5 -8.3 358.9 144.9 410.4 153.2 -58.7 -11 .4 362.4 144.7 421 .1 156.2 -90 .6 -27.0 368.6 147.4 459 174.4 -56.0 -13.4 367.2 147.1 423.2 160.5 -69.1 -27.0 363.5 144.8 432.6 171 .8 -31 .9 -15.6 1.7 1.9 9.1 11 .7 34.6 13.6 -0.4 -0.2 -7.9 -8.0 -13.1 -13.6 -1 -1 2.2 7.0 2 4 4 6 . 8 2646 2959.9 2766.5 2 8 7 3 . 5 2944.8 2 9 8 4 . 9 3 0 3 6 . 3 3075.4 1864.2 1984 2173.2 2055.4 2113.4 2159.2 2191 .9 2 2 2 8 . 1 2272 .9 149.8 153 154.1 159.1 111 .1 121 154.4 131 .9 154.9 62.0 6 4.1 64.8 58.3 61 .0 63.0 62.5 60.4 51 .5 2 94.0 277.4 291 .1 2 8 2 . 8 291 .6 285.7 260.0 225 159.1 293.4 282.8 293 .5 289.5 256.6 266.8 2 84.1 258.9 260.9 1 .4 1 .5 2 .6 1 .6 -2.9 3.8 1 .7 1.7 3.5 1 .7 3.1 0. 1.3 2.0 -3.1 1 .1 0.8 -1 .3 1 .0 1 .9 13.3 -23.8 0.6 -0.1 1 .9 -0. -9.2 -0.1 0 2.4 -27.4 34.8 -1 . .do., .do. .do.. A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services 260. Total 2$1. 262. 263. 266. 267. Total in 1972 dollars Federal Government Federal Government in 1972 dollars State and local government State and local government in 1972 dollars., ,250. 255. 252. 256. 253. 257. Net exports of goods and services3 Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars3.. Exports of goods and services Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars Imports of goods and services Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars 220. 280. 282. 284. 286. 288. National income Compensation of employees Proprietors1 income with IVA and CCAdj . . Rental income of persons with CCAdj Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj Net interest : A5. Foreign Trade ..do.. ..do.. ..do.. A6. National Income and its Components .do., ..do., ..do... .do.. A7. Saving 290. 295. 292. 298. 293. Gross saving Business saying Personal saving Government surplus or deficit3 Personal saving rate1 ....do.. ....doPercent 40 8.8 43 7.2 551.8 453.6 388,0 518.6 156.1 136.0 118.1 -115.3 - 1 3 4 . 5 - 1 2 2 . 9 6.2 5.0 6.1 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk { * ) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A, seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 1 The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: Lr leading; C, roughly coincident; Lgr lagging; U, unclassified. 485.7 543.9 486 .4 4 9 8 . 8 128.7 152.5 -129.3 - 1 0 7 . 4 6.1 5.3 551 .0 515 .3 144.8 -109.2 5.7 556.4 525.3 164.1 -133 .0 6.3 556.0 558.8 535.2 547.8 163.0 118.3 -142.2 -107.4 6.2 4.5 2 For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available. 1 Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series. 'Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed. s End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period. 6 This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of the span. CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS Chart A l . Composite Indexes HOM. P Oct. T July May P T Aug. Apr. P T Dec. Nov. P T Apr. Fab. P T Nov. Mar. P T Jan.July July Nm. F T P T I Index: 1967=1001 170160- f 150- -8 of twelve leading indicators ,5,8,12,19,20,29,32. 36,99,106, 111) MOMO12011010090- 170160Oii / 150- E 140130* z_ 920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators !| (series 4Ij 47,51, 57) — — 120110100- •\ o ii-4 / 140130120- Index of six lagging" indicators (series 62,77,91,95,101, lUST/ 1 -l 110100- 90- +2 +4 50- P i In 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841985 NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates. Current data for these series are shown on page 60. 10 MAY 1985 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A l . Composite Indexes—Continued Jan. July July Nov. P T P T Capital investment commitments (series 12/20,29) Inventory investment and purchasing ing (series 8, 3£ 3 $ 39) Money and financial flows (series 104, 940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index ~ir 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 841989 NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates. Current data for these series are shown on page 60. BCD MAY 1985 11 CYCLICAL INDICATORS IA I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A2. Leading Index Components Nov. Oct. P T July May P T Aug. Apr, P T Dec. Key. P T Apr. Feb. PI fa Mar, ian.July July F T P Wev. T 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours) 5 . Averse weeklyinitiaJ claims for uneniploymeiit insurance, State programs (thousands—inverted scale) 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (Ml. dol.) 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower (percent) ^ [ j T [ 12, Net business formation (index: 1 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 ) LLL 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars (bj. d d ) 1948 49 50 51 52 S3 S4 S5 §S S7 Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 , 64, 65, and 66. 12 MAY 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS jA I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued Nov. Oct. P T July May P T Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. FT Nov. P Mar. T Jan. July July Wov. P T P T 29. New private housing units authorized by local ermtts finder 1 Q f i 7 ^ 36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, bit; dol.) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent) 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10) Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (bil. do!.) run Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (ann. rate, percent) \ [,L t L | 1948 49 50 91 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 +30+20' 61 62 63 64 85 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 30 81 82 83 841985 'this is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on pages 67 r 68, 69, 7 1 , and 72. ItCII MAY 1985 13 CYCLICAL INDICATORS COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A3. Coincident Index Components Nov. Oct. P T July May P T Aug. Apr. P T Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Hm. P T j@ii.jyly July Nov. 1 T P T Employees on nonagricuttural payrolls {nitons) 5L Personal income less transfer payments in 1972 dollars (ann. rate, bi. dot.) 47. Industrial production (index: 1967-100) CXX 57, Manufacturing and trade safes in 1972 dollars ( b l doi.) yv r 1948 49 50 51 92 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 81 82 83 841989 Current data for these series aro shown on pages 62, 63, and 6$. 14 MAY 1985 BCD CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued Chart A4, Lagging Index Components Nov. Oct. P T Aug. Apr. P T July May PI Jan. July July Nov. P T P T Nov. Mar. P T Dec. Nov. P T Apr, Feb. P T 91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—Inverted scale)] 77. Ratio, manufacturing arid trade inventories to sales in 11972 dollars (ratk>> 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing—actual data asjiercent of trend percent) I^« |« LgI f 109. Average prime rate charged by bank^ (percent) 101. Commercial and industrial bans outstanding f in 1972 # a r s (oil, dot) consumer installment credrt outstanding to personal income llt'l 1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 "JJ'O/. 81 82 83 841985 Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 68, 70, and 73. KCII MAY 1985 15 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B | CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment Apr, Feb. Dec. Nov. Urn. Mar. P T P T P T Jan. July P T July P Nov T 1 Marginal Employment Adjustments [ . ^/^N 1. Average weekly hours of production or iwnsupervtsory workers, manufacturing (hours) 38 J 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours) 3- 5. Average weekly iratial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (thousands—inverted sole) f p y f l 200 n J*v 300- 7T-? 400- 500600- [Job Vacancies] 700ftatin hpln.wanfpri ariuflrtking in of persons unempfeyed (ratio) tn nnmKpf 1.4*1 rrrrjjn 1.0- 0,6- 0.2180-| 160* 46, Heto-wanted advertising in newspapers (index: 1967=100) 140120100- 1 1999 60- V 60 61 1 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Currant data for these series are shown on page 6 1 . 16 MAY 1985 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued Jan. July P I July P Nov. T [Coniprehensive Employment 1 Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (mions) Employees on nonagricultural payrolls civilian employment to population of working 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 and 6 2 . \\i\\ MAY 1985 17 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued Apr, Feb. P T Dec. P Nov. P Nov. T Jan. July P T Mar. T July P Nov. T [Comprehensive Unemployment | 37, Number of persons unemployed (millions—inverted scale) 45, Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (percent—inverted scale) L,Lg,U \ r E2 91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale) _-+L-J H-g.Lg.leI J_ \ f 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale) [LfelgJlJ \ 1959 60 61 62 63 64 63 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 79 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 / 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 62. 18 MAY 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B2. Production and Income Apr. Hi P T Dec. Nov. P T | Comprehensive Output and Income | 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. CM 52. Personal income in 1972 dollars 51. Personal iiicome less transfer payments in (ann. Wages and salaries in 1972 dollars, mining, manufacti and construction (arm. rate, bil. dot.) UU lAl'iK 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 Current data for these series are shown on page 63. I M i l l MAY 1985 81 ; $2 83 84 85 1986 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued Apr. Feb. P T lov. Dec. Nov. P T Mar. Jan. July P T July P llndustrial Production [ 47. Industrial production (index: 1967—100) 74. Industrial productbn, nondurable mamrtactures (index:; 1967=100) \ 73. industrial production, durable manufactures (index; 1 9 6 7 H 0 0 ) 49. value of goods output in 1972 (ann. rate, bit. doJ.) CAC [Capacity Utilization| 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (percent) 90- ijul 80- 80- m^- 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (percent) 1959 60 01 $2 63 64 vrz z V 65 §6 67 71 72 73 74 7S 76 77 S4 S3 1986 Current data for these series ere shown on pages 63 and 64. 20 MAY 1985 ItCII CYCLICAL CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T Jan. July P T July Nov. P T I Q.fdejrs and Deliveries 1 6. Manufacturers' new ordjers Njcurrent dollars, durable goods industries (bil. dol.) | 7. Maniifadiifprs' jn ,1977 Hollar^ durable foods Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods and materials industrie LLL 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durahiig&& industries (biL doU_MCD imoving avg.—4-term) L.LL 96. Manufacturers' (bil. dol.) durable goods industries Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (percent) ^^^^m/ 100- J\ 1959; 60 §1 62 63 §4 ®5 70 71 72 j \ r_ 73 74 75 7© r^\ 77 7& 79 75- V A 5025-* 84 S i 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 64. MAY 1985 21 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Nov. P Dec. Nov. P T Mar. T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 500450- |Consumption and Trade] 4003503002S0- 56. Manufacturing andj (bl. dol.) 150- 57. Maiwfactufing and trade sales in 1Q79 flnlhrc /'hil Ani\ 190170- 75. Mistrial productiojL (index: 1967-100) 150130- \ r 110120 T 110100- 54.; {Sales of retail stores in current dollars (bl. dol.) fault; 70- ii\ 6050- P;Q Salps nf rptaH ctnrp<: in 197? dollars (hi 40120-I 11010090- ~ZL 80706950- 40- 30- 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobles, Q (arm. rate, b3. dol.) l ! 20 J 58. IIKIIH of consumer sentiment (1st Q1966-100) 100- m 7060- li§9 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 89 1986 Current data for these isrlet are shown on page 69. 22 MAY 1995 BCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4, Fixed Capital Investment Apr. Feb. P T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 160- I Formation of Business Enterprises! 140- 12, Net business formation f h t o c l i M 120100- 5040- 13. New business incorporations ( 30403530- 10. Contracts and orders for plant in current dollars (bi!. dol.) 20- j Busjess Investment Commitments 1 15- 10- 20. Contracts and orders for in 1972 dollars (bH. doL) 35- IXX 3025- 20- 24. Manufacturers' new ofders in current dollars, rwrnJefense capital goods industries (bit. dol.) 15- I 10- new orders in 1972 dollars, nondefense apital goods industries 5J 110-1 1009080708050- b Construction contracts ^wardeiti for commercial and intjustrialFv hi.ilHinac /mil en 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 ft 67 68 ftf 69 fl»nr 70 MPh 71 ^ 72 73 V 74 75 76 40- 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F,W. Dodge Division. Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66. BCII MAY 1985 23 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued 120-1 no- [Business Investment Commitments—Con, 100- 7060- 97. Backlog of capital appropriations. 1.000 manufacturing corporations, Q (Ml. dol.) SO- 40- 30- 20- 11. Newly approved capita! appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations, Q (bil. dol.) 10- 320* 61. Expenditure^ for new plant and equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, Q (ann. rate, DM. CKH.; 200- 1 480 T 440400- Investment Expenditures 280240200* 160- . Machinery and equipment sales and business rnnctnirtinn pvn^ndttures ('ann rate. hi. doO J^ Y 120220-i 200- 76. Industrial production, business equipment (index: 1967=100) C,Lg,U 180160140120 m 100- X999 60 61 62 63 64 ©S §6 S7 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67. 24 MAY 1985 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS BJ CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued Apr. F$b. P Dec. Nov. Nov. Mar. Jan. July July Nov. P T P T P I P T t 240- (Business Investment Expenditures—Con.[ |; ; 220" 200- Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1$72 dollars (ana rate, 180160- 140« 120100- 88. Producers' durable equipment, Q I 60- 40-* 1 ResidjentfalConstruction Commitments and Investment[jl I -v J n 28.: New; j M v a t ^ h ^ 1.21.0- 0.8 J 29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits (index: 1967 HOO) 195Q 60 61 62 63 ©4 SS 66 67 68 69 70 *~~"~' 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 SO 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 67. A9 MAY 1985 25 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment Apr, Feb. P T [inventory Investment] Dec. Nov. Nov. Mar. P T P T Jan. July P T July P felev I 30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars, Q (arm, rate, bl. doi.) full +20 • -10' 36. Change i n manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on orjter in 1972 dollars (arm. rate, Ml, do!.; movin ^ 1 ) Change in manufacturing and trade inventories, book value HV*WW 38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand t and on order, book value (bil. doi.; MCD moving avg.-4-term) '* L 1959 60 01 62 63 64 ©9 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 89 1986 'This Is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. Current data for these series are shown on page 68. 26 MAY 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B l CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued Apr. Felj. P T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 80 81 82 1 Inventories on Hand and on Order] 71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value ( j : i Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars ( b i dol.) 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods ! book vahie (biL i j k ) ! 77. Ratio, manufacturing |nd trade inventoried to sales in Wl dollars 78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on and on order, book value 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 68. BCII MAY 1985 27 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits Apr, Feb. Dec, Nov. Nov. Mar. Jan. July July Nov. P T P T P T P l' P T | Sensitive Commodity Prices] 98. Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and intermediate materials (percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices (percent; moving avg.—4-term1) '"2 23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials2 (index: 1967^100) 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10) [Profits and Profit Margins] 160120- 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1972 dollars, Q (arm, rate, bil. dol.) [ T T T 80- 40- 16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. dol.) r r - p n 1959 60 61 62 69 70 71 72 73 74 77 78 84 SS liii 'This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span. -Beginning with data for June 1 9 8 1 , this Is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Current data for these series ere shown on paga 69. 28 MAY 1985 K C I I CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued Apr. Feb. P Nov. P Dec. Nov. P T T Mar. T Jan. July P T July P f^ov. T 240- I Profits and Profit Margins—ConT] 200160120- 79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in current dollars, 0 (ann. rate, bil. dot) ^ 80- 40-1 80. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj in 1972 dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. dol.) r q r n 22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to corporate Q (percent) 10- 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj to corporate domestic income, Q (percent) 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations, Q (cents) 7-1 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector. O (index: 1977 = 100^ 104102100- V 98- / 9694450400350300 < 250200- [Cash Rows | 34. Corporate net cash (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 150- 100- 35. Corporate net cash flow in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) ||_,L,L| 50 J 1959 60 61 62 63 §4 6S 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current; data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70. ItCII MAY 1985 29 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued Apr, Feb. P T Nov. P Dec. Nov. P T Jan. k\\j P T Jyh/ Nov. P T 170- K Costs and Labor Share 1 160150140130120110- 63. Unit labor cost, business sector Q (index: 1977-100) r T T i T T S 10090801,61.51.41.31.2- y 68. tabor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product in 1972 dollars, nonfinancial corporations, Q (iWlari) 1.11.00.9- 260240220- 7 200180- 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (tadex: 1967—100) iLgLeLgl 160- 140- 120- 100- 80- 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income, Q (percent) j |if.Lf.Ul ^ 7876747270- 1959 SO 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 89 1986 Current data for thtw taries ar« shown on page 70. 30 MAY 1985 ircii CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T 85. Change in money supply M l (percent; MCQ moving avg.~-6-term) | L t L t i 102, Change in money supply M2 (percent; MCjf) moving avg.^64erm); 104. Change in total liquid assets (percent; MCD moving avg.—6-term) +0.4. 0.0-1 105. Money supply M l j m l S f dollars ( b l « ) 250-1 ill,U 230 2101901000 950 106. Money supply M2 in 1972 doflars (bi. do).) 900 850800750700 650 7.5 7.06.5 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply M l , 6.0 5.55.01.45- 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (ratio) 1.40- TUPI 1.351.301.251.20- 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 7 1 . ItCII MAY 1985 31 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Dec. Nov. Nov. Mar, P T P T Jan. July P T July P New T 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 112. Net change in business loam (ann. rate, biLdoL: MCD moving avg.-~6-term) \ixx\ 1 113. Net change in consumer installment credit (ann. rate, bil. dol.; MCO moving avg.—6-term) 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (ann. rate, percent) [ T g l 110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets, Q (arm. rate, ML dol.) 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these sarles are shown on pages 7 1 and 72. 32 MAY 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit-—Continued Jan. July P T July P Nov. T 80 81 82 1 Credit Difficulties 14. Current liabilities of business failures (mil. d o l . inverted scale; MCfi moviig avg>—6-*erm) 39. Percent of consumer i (percent—inverted scale) : ,: :.. • - : - loans delinquent 30 days and ^A* (bil.dol.—inverted scale) from the Federal Reserve 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 72. ItCII MAY 1985 33 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T Jan. July July F T P Mar. T MM. P Nov. T 119. Federal funds rate (percent) 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day treasury bills (percent) |c Lg Lg Yield nn new issues nf hiOTi*0rade rnmnrate hands (percent) [ LgtLg,Lg 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (percent) C,Lg,L 118. Secondary matfcet yields on FHA mortgages (percent) 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (percent) 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 83 84 89 1986 Currant data for these series are ihown on pages 72 and 73. 34 MAY 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Jan, July P T July P Nov. T 81 82 ntetest Rates--Con. 67. Bank rates on I Outstanding Debt | fifi fruKiimpr inctalfmprtt rrpnit and industrial loans outstanding in current ns outstanding in 1972 dollars .Commercial and .do!.) installment credit outstanding to personal i 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 73. MAY 1985 35 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes Apr. Fib. Dec. Nov. Now. P T P T P Jan. July F 950. Twelve leading indicator components (6-mp. span T inly Nov. P T | Percent rising] , 1-mo. span-—) 50- 0* 951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (6HTX>. span mmn n mi III , 1-mo. s p a n — ) 100- Nwni* \\i in JL so- 952. Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. span—f, 1-mo. span-—) lOO-i 50- 0- 961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing industries.(9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span.~-) 100- 50- 0- 962. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span---) 100- 50- 963. Employees on private rwnagricuJtural payrolls, 172-186 industries (6-mo. s p a n — . 1-roo. soan---) 100-1 50- 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 74. 36 MAY 1985 licit CYCLICAL C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Nov. P Dec. Nov. P T Mar. T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T I Percent rising] 964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries (9-mo. span-—> 1-mo. span---) ; 100- 50- 0- 965. Newly approved capital appropriations in 1972 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (4-Q moving avg^^> T 1-Q span»-«~«) h k \ • / A - V ! 70- pfiC SwM; ; • . / v^ V 4 90- t 50- -4- ^ 30- 966. Industrial production, 24 industries (6-mo. s p a n - ^ , 1-ma s p a n - - 0 100- 50- 0- 967, Spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (9-mo. span*—, 1-mo. span---) 100- 50- 0- 968. Stock prices, 500 common stocks, 46-82 industries (9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span---) 100- 50- 0- 960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies1 (4-Q span) 90- v 1959 60 61 68 69 70- y 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 50 83 84 85 1986 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Current data for these series are shown on page 75. ItCII MAY 1985 37 CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued Nov. P Jan. July P T Mar. T July P Nov. P Nov. T Actual Anticipated • • . Jan. July P T Mar. T July P Nov. T Actual ipated ; \f> •»•••[ Anticipated [ Percent r p g j 970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment, 21 industries (1-Q span) 974. ijjumbef of employees, manufacturing and trade (<HQ span)1 70-| 60§0- 975J Level of inventories, manufacturing arid trade (4-Q span)1 976! SeMng prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1 Jfljl. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span) 100- 908070- W 972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span) 1 60 J 977. Seing prices, wholesale trade 10090807060- 973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q 978. Seing prices, retail trade (4-Q span) mV span) 1 1009080- M * 7060- 1973 74 75 70 77 78 80 81 82 83 84 1985 1973 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 SI 82 83 84 1985 'This tt a copyrighted series used by permission) It may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion Indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. Current data for these series are shown on page 76. 38 MAY 1985 KCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Chart C3. Rates of Change Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T Nov. P Mar. T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T l^month spans - 41-* 3-month spsns ^ •-j1". Percent change at annual rate I 910c. Composite index of twelve leading indicators* :; \ 920c. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators ••••!}•;>•-• 930c. Composite index of six lagging indicators ^ L 47c. Index of industrial production 50c. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (1-Q 48c. Employee hours in nonagicufoiral establishments 51c. Personal income IfS$ transfer payments in 1972 dollars 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 - 85 1986 NOTE: Data for these percent changes are shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide" indicates the latest issue in which the data for each series were published. BCII MAY 1985 39 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT Chart A l . GNP and Personal Income Apr. Feb. Dec. Now. P T P P Jin. July ¥ T July Hm. P T 4500-1 4000 35003000 2500200. Gross national product in current dollars, Q (armJ rate, bil. dot.) 2000' 1500' 223. Personal income in current dollars (arm. rate, bil. dol.) \ \ 1000* 224. Disposable personal income in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1300 1600- 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars, Q (arm. rate, bil. dot.) 1400' 12001000* 213. 1800' 1600 1400 1200- Final sal0s in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bH. dol.) 1000800600' 217. Per capita gross national product in Wz (arm. rate, thous. dol.r dollars, (J 5- 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 227. Per capita disposable Dersonal income in i y / z doiars, y (ann. rate, tnous. dol.) 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80. 40 MAY 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures Apr. Feb. P T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T , billion dollars (current)! Personal consumption expenditures^ . Nondurable goods, Q r 232/Durable goodsliQ Annual rate, billkxidotiars (1972)1 238. Nondurable goods, Q 233. Durable goods. 0 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on pages 80 and 8 1 . l t d ) MAY 1985 41 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment Apr. Feb. P T Dee. P Nov. Nov. Mar. T p T Jin. July P T July Nov. P I Annual rate, bikm doiars (current)! Gross private domestic investment— 245. Change in business inventories, Q Annual rate, bion doiars (1972)[ 30. Change in business inventories, Q +40+30- + 20- V V 1959 60 / 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 + 10- \ 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are thown on page 8 1 . 42 MAY 1985 KCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services Jan. July P T Apr. Feb. P T July P Nov. T Annual rate, bilHon doHars (current) | Government purchases of goods and services— Annual rate, bKfttdilars (1972)1 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 . RCII MAY 1985 43 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A5. Foreign Trade Apr. fib. Dec. Nov. Nov. Mar. P T P T P T Jan. July P I P JuCy Nov. T Annual rate, b i o n doiars (current)) - 253. Imports of goods and services, Q 252. Exports of goods am) services, Q 250. Net exports of goods and services, Q Annual rate, b i o n doiars (1972)1 256. Exports of goods and services, Q — * - . Imports of goods and services, Q 255. Net exports of goods and services, Q 1959 60 61 B2 63 64 6S §6 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 7S 79 S3 84 SS 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. 44 MAY 1985 ItCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A6. National Income and Its Components Apr. Feb. P T Dec. P Nov. P Nov. T Jan. July P T Mar. T July P Nov. T [Annual rate, biflion dollars (current)] 111 34003000260022001800- 1400- 220. National income, Q 1000- ^ — |80* Compensation of employees, Q 600- 400360320280240- 286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory] Valuatjon and cdpilnl f* consumption adjustments, Q |,.'M.|f v \ ^ /"Q " 200180- S QT M 16014012010090- ^H / 80- S 70- LU A - ^ — ) 2 ? 8 : ^interest, Q • / • 60- 50- Proprietors' income with inventory valuation a(td 40- 284. Rental income of persons with capital H consumption adjustment, Q y 30- 20- 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 70 71 72 73 74 79 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 82. MAY 1985 45 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A7. Saving Apr. Feb. P T Mar. T Nov. Dec. Nov. P T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T Annual rate, bilon dolars (current) | 600 550 r" V 350' 300 290. Gross saving, Q 250 200- 295. Business saving, Q . l§0' 298. Government surplus or deficit, Q 293. Personal saving rate, Q QJ 19S9 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 83 84 85 198C Current dati for these series are shown on pages 82 and 83. 46 MAY 1985 OTHER IWPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. Nov. Mar. P T P T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T I Percent of GNP] 235. Personal consumption expenditures, Q 65- 6020- 268. State and local government purchases of goods and services, Q 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q 248. (Presidential fixed investment, Q 5- 249. Residential fixed investment, Q 0- ^ 2 4 7 . Change in business inventories, Q 251. Net exports of goods and services, Q [Percent of National Income| 80 T 64. Compensation of employees, Q /v/\ 75- 70- 6515- 287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q 10- 283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments, Q 5- 285, Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q 1959 60 61 62 63 ©4 65 @7 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 83. itcir MAY 1985 47 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY Chart B l . Price Movements Par. Nov. Jan, July PI T July NOT. Nov. Mar. p T P I 1 Index: 1972 «* 1001 260240 Jan. F July T July Nov. P T 310c. Implicit price deflator for gross 1 Percent change at annual rate] ij national product (1-Q span) 220 2Q0< 310, Implicit price deflator for gross national product, \i ISO' 160- 311c. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product 311. fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product, Q UJ Producer price indexes— 16-month spans | "*• 334. Finished consumer goods 1973 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 1985 1973 74 7§ 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 1985 Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 85, and 86. MAY 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T Nov. P '" ;! Mar. T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T Unidex: 1967^1001 "• I t 340300- Consumer price indexes— 260220- 180- 322. All urban consumers, food 140- 100- + 20-i 320c. All urban consumers (6-month span) + 10-1 o-l 322c. All urban consumers, food Chart B2. Wages and Productivity [Index: 1977^100! 341. Real average hourly earnings of production or workers on private nonagricultural payrolls 340, Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (current dollars) 346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector, Q (current dollars) 1959 60 61 62 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonatity. Current data for these series are shown on pages 84, 87, and 88. BCD MAY 1985 49 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued Apr. Feb. P T Dec. Nov. P T |Wages-4con.l ; Nov. Mar. P T Jan, July P T July P Nov. T [Patent change 1 6-month snans fanri. rate") + 1S Change in average hourly'earnings of production or nonsupervispry workers on private twnagrioittural payrolls1— +10 i>li 340c. Current-dollar earnings i f f i f t f r T * .III U MM* JL. ^4i^^ 341c. 6-month spans (arm. rate) l ij |j <j Change in average hourly compensation, al employees, nonfamt business sector, Q— + 15-1 l-4iarter spans (ann. rate) 345c. Current-doKar compensation + §• 4-quarter • 346c. Real compensation H '! + 10-I 1-quarteri spans (ann. rate) ^ f ' 4-quarter spans V V ^ - I •' -5- Negotiated wage and benefit decisions— 348, Average first-year changes, Q (arm. rate) 349. Average changes over life of _ ; contract, Q (ann. rate) I Bdex: 1977=1001 | Productivity] 120' 110' 358. Output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector, Q x 370. Output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q '/(H 370c. Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q 1959 60 SI 62 63 64 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 [Percent change | 74 7S 76 77 78 i3 84 SS 1986 'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 'One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make tham comparable with the annuaiized 6-month changes. See page 87 for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on pages 87 and 88. 50 ^^••kl MAY 1985 I M J ) OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES C LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major Components Apr. Fetj. P T Jan. July P T July Nov. P T 442. Civilian employment (millions) Civilian tabor force participation rates (percent)— 451. Males 20 years and over 453. Both sexes 16-19 years of ag6| 452. Fertiafe$ 20 years and over Number unemployed (millions)— 445. Females 20 years 446. Both sexes 16^19 y t o s of age 447, likimik unemployed, fuHijtime porkers (millions) W 448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (millions) 1959 60 61 62 63 04 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 Current data for these series are shown on page 8 9 . BCD MAY 1985 51 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Chart D l . Receipts and Expenditures Apr. Fgb. Dec. Nov. Nov. Mar. P T P T P T Jan. July P T July P [Annual rate, biofl doiars (current) noo- m 900700500- 502. Federal Government expehdftures, Q 300* 501. Federal Government receipts, Q 100- 500. Federal Government surplus or deficit, Q + 200-20 « -40- \ -120140160-180200220- 700600* 500400- 511. State and local government receipts, Q V 300- 200- 512. State and local government expenditures, Q 100- m 510. State and local government surplus or deficit, Q • 19S9 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 71 72 73 74 79 76 77 78 S3 84 8B 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. 52 MAY 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators Apr. Feb. P T Dec. P Nov. T Nov. P Mar. T Jan. July P T July P [Advance Measures of Defense Activity] Nov T :, LAA 517. Defense Department gross obligations mcurred {bit. do! • MCD moving ave.—6-term) 525. Defense Department prime contract awards; (bil. do).; MCD moving avg.~6-term) ; 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (bil. dol.) 548. Manufacturers1 new orders, defense products (bi. dof.; MCD moving avg.—fi^tfifflO 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 90. MAY 1985 53 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued Apr. Feb. Dec. Nov. Nov. P T P T p Jan. July p T July P I Intermediate and Final Measures of Defense Activity] ;; (index: 1967=100) 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book value (bit. dot.) 561. Manufacturers' unfitted orders, defense products (bil, do).) 580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military assistance (bit. dot.) |j ii 588. Manufacturers' shipments, (bil. ISSi §0 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 SI 84 85 1986 Current dat* for these series ere Shown on page 9 1 54 MAY 1985 BCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES I£) I GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued Apr. Fefc. P T Mar. T Nov. P Dec. Nov. P T Jan. July P T July P Nov. T | .Intermediate and Final Measures; of Defense I Activity—fjon,| \ 570. Emptoyment defense products ndustries (millions) Defense Department personnel (millions) 3.5- 577. Military personnel on active duty 3.02.5- — a 2.0- 578. Civilian personnel, direct hire employment 1.5- 1.0- 300- [National Defense Purchases [ 260220- 180- I services, national 564. defense, Q (ann. rate, bit. d o l j 140- 100- 60 J 565. National defense purchases as la percent of GNP, Q (percent) 109- 8754•...-. .. )JU\A 1959 60 • • : j,-\.'.J 61 62 •- r- • : :' - - - J L V J i - J u . r '* '• V. pj 63 64 65 66 67 ./; U .• ..:\ " -- \\JU).JI-: 68 69 70 J\... L 71 !• ;:. .• :••:••:. .!>. . M L i U l i l J U 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 9 1 . BCII MAY 1985 55 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS Chart E l . Merchandise Trade Apr, Feb. P T Jan. July F T July P T 2420- . ..^*>** m 12- 602. Exports, excluding military aid (bil. dol.) 543- 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (ULdoL) 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (bl. dol.) 343026- 9.08.0- 612. General imports (bil. dol) 7.0- 105.04.03.0' 614. Imports of petroleum ami petroleum products (bldol) 2.0- 1.0- 616. Imports of automobies and Darts (bl. doL) 0.8- 0.4- 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 67 68 09 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 92, 56 MAY 1985 KCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued Chart E2* Goods and Services Movements Apr. Feb. P ' T Dec. P Nov. T Nov. P Jan. July P T Mar. T July P Wov. T | Annual rate, billion dollars 1 t ^ $ i Excess of r^pefcts 650- ill, M Excess of payments 550450350250- Goods and services— 150- 667. Balance on goods and services, Q 668. Exports, Qs 669. Imports, Q Merchandise, adjusted— 622. Balance on merchandise trade, Q 651. U.S. investment abroad, Q I. Foreign investment in the United States, Q 1959 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 1986 Current data for these series are shown on page 93. BCII MAY 1985 57 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Chart F l . Industrial Production Apr. Feb. Oec. P T P Urn. P NOT. T Jan. July p T Ju!y Nov. P T [Index: 1967^1001 Industrial production— "ZL 240 220- 728.-*apair 7 721. OECD European countries V ISO140- 120- 100 - 728. Japan 80- 725. West Germany 1959 60 6H 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 198© Current data for these series are shown on page 94. 58 MAY 1985 OTHER JMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Chart F2. Consumer Prices Nov. Mar. P T Chart F3. Stock Prices Jan. July P T July P [Percent change at annual rate j Nov. T Nov. P 6-ifflojhMm Mar. T $tock prices4- Jan. July P T July Nov. P T 1 Index; 1967^1001 Consumer prices-— 1973 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 1985 1973 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 198S Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96. MAY 1985 59 CYCLICAL INDICATORS A I COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS COMPOSITE INDEXES Year and month 910. Index of twelve leading indicators (series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106, 111) (1967-100) 920. Index of four roughly coincident indicators (series 41,47,51,57) (1967^100) 930. Index of six lagging indicators (series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (1967 — 100) 940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index Leading indicator subgroups 914. Capital investment commitments (series 12, 20, 29) (1967-100) (1967-100) 915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8, 32, 36, 99) (1967-100) 916. Profitability (series 19, 26, 80) 917. Money and financial flows (series 104, 106, 111) ' (1967-100) (1967-100) 1983 January . February March . . 145.2 147.4 150.2 134.3 133.5 134.6 115.7 115.8 114.4 116. 115. 117. 106.3 107.0 107.2 97.7 99.2 101.3 97.6 98.6 100,5 127.2 129.1 129.8 April . . . May . . . June . . . 152.5 154.4 157.3 135.6 137.9 139.8 113.5 111.0 109.8 119. 124. 127. 107. 109, 110.3 101. 102. 102. 102.5 104.6 105.7 129.7 129.0 131.5 July August September . . . 158. 158, 160.0 140.7 140.8 143.3 109.7 110.3 109.7 128. 127. 130.6 109.4 108.9 109.3 103. 104. 104. 106.5 107.0 107.9 132.4 132.0 130.2 October November . . . December . . . 162.4 162.5 163.4 145.0 145.9 147.5 109.6 110.0 110.9 132.3 132.6 133.0 110.4 110.1 109.2 105. 105. 106.1 108.4 108.6 108. B 131.1 132.0 133.9 164.5 166.5 167.2 149.5 150.6 151.1 109.8 111.3 112.8 D136.2 135.3 134.0 110.3 111.5 110.8 106.1 106.8 107.5 109.2 108.4 109.3 133.4 134.8 136.3 168.1 E>rl68.2 rl66.9 152.6 153.9 155.5 114.6 116.4 117.5 133 132 132 110.7 rll0.7 111.1 ©107.9 107.7 106.0 110.1 110.8 110.5 136.6 138.1 138.0 July August • . , . , , September . . , 163.9 164.5 rl65.9 155.7 155.8 156.0 118.8 119.9 121.2 131 129.9 128.7 109.5 rll0.3 rll0.5 104.6 103.6 103.8 110.3 111.7 112.2 137.3 137.2 137.6 October November . . . December . . . rl64.2 165.3 rl64.3 156.1 157.2 158.3 122.3 122.1 1-22.5 127.6 128.7 129.2 rlO9.4 109.9 rlO9.3 103.8 103.4 102,3 112.4 112.8 H12.4 135.6 136.2 136.4 January February March rl66.4 rl67.6 167.7 rl57.7 rl57.8 158.4 rl24.6 rl25.5 5.5 rl26.6 rl25.7 rl25.2 rlO9.3 ©rill.5 rllO.2 102.6 rlO2.7 rlO2.6 rll3.0 [H)113.8 (NA) (H>139.0 rl38.7 P138.3 April May June »167.4 »M58.6 3 P125.9 P109.4 P103.1 1984 January February March April May June 1985 126.0 (NA) July August September . . . October November . . . December . , NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated b y © . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11. Mixeludes series 36 and 111, for which data are not available. Excludes series 57, for which'data are not available. Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available. 60 MAY 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS j Q Minor Economic Process Marginal Employment Adjustments Timing Class Year EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT L.C.L L, C. L L.L.L 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing Comprehensive Employment Job Vacancies L, Lg, U 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs1 (Hours) (Thous.) 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number of persons unemployed L, Lg, U U.C.C 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments month (Hours) (Ratio) (1967 = 100) (Ann. rate, bit. hours) 1983 January February March 39.5 39.1 39.7 2.4 2.4 2.6 507 478 479 0.215 0.214 0.216 83 83 83 165.75 164.04 165.06 April May June . . , 40.1 39.9 40.1 2.9 2.7 2.9 470 453 406 0.213 0.230 0.243 81 87 92 166.67 167.07 167.47 July August . , September 40.2 40.3 40.7 3.0 3.0 3.2 380 408 387 0.283 0.273 0.284 100 97 98 168.29 168.25 170.68 October November December 40.6 40.6 40.6 3.3 3.3 3.4 386 381 378 0.335 0.359 0,391 111 114 121 171.12 170.69 172.73 40.9 40.9 40.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 364 @)345 348 0.406 0.435 0.420 123 129 124 174.01 175.02 174.40 April . . May June E>41.1 40.6 40.6 0)3.7 3.3 3.3 360 348 350 0.419 0.435 0.485 124 125 134 176.89 176.31 176.99 July August September 40.5 40.5 40.6 3.3 3.3 3.3 365 358 368 0.484 0.449 0.459 138 128 129 177.06 177,49 178.87 October . November December 40.4 40.5 40.7 3.3 3.4 3.4 405 397 386 0.484 0.501 [H)0.527 136 137 B)145 178.40 177.37 179.63 January February March . . 40.6 r40.0 40.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 378 402 389 0.483 0.496 0.489 139 140 138 rl79.51 E>rl80.90 April May June . . p40.3 p3.4 387 pO.463 p!31 P180.43 1984 January February March 1985 179.89 July . August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17. x Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. MAY 1985 61 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q Minor Economic Process Comprehensive Unemployment Comprehensive Employment—Continued u. c, c Timing Class Year and month EMPLOYMENT ANO UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued 42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (Thous.) C.C.C 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (Thous.) L.C.U 40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (Thous.) U. Lg, U 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (Percent) L, Lg, U 37. Number of persons unemployed L, Lg, U 43. Unemployment rate (Thous.) (Percent) L. Lg, U 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs' (Percent) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 91. Average duration of unemployment 44. Unemploy* ment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (Weeks) (Percent) 1983 January . February March . . 95,792 95,756 95,897 88,827 88,728 88,945 22,959 22,827 22,832 56.53 56.43 56.47 11,513 11,556 11,430 10, 10, 10. 4.5 4.5 4.4 19.0 19.2 19.3 4.2 April . . . May . . , June . . . 96,209 96,282 96,987 89,259 89,578 89,927 22,949 23,087 23,241 56.59 56.56 56.97 11,316 11,258 11,273 10. 10. 10. 4.4 4.2 3.9 19.3 20.3 20.8 3.9 4.0 4.0 July August September . , 97,691 98,101 989675 90,274 89,918 91,018 23,414 23,532 23,669 57.32 57.51 57.68 10,534 10,595 10,281 9.4 9.4 9.2 3.7 3.5 3.3 21.3 20.2 20.4 3.9 3.6 3.fa October 98,758 99,453 99,700 91,345 91,688 92,026 23,895 24,058 24,198 57.65 57.97 58.10 9,872 9,448 9,208 8.4 8.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 20.3 20.1 19.6 3.3 3.1 3.0 January February March . . . . . . 100,000 100,524 100,818 92,391 92,846 93,058 24,383 24,577 24,595 58.12 58.40 58.49 9,026 8,836 8,783 8.0 7.8 7.8 3.0 2.9 2.9 19.9 19.0 18.9 2.6 April May June 101,023 101,795 102,023 93,449 93,786 94,135 24,760 24,851 24,974 58.59 58.97 59.04 8,800 8,560 8,228 2.8 2.7 2.7 18.7 18.5 18.1 2,5 2.5 2.3 July August September . . . 102,044 101,884 102,075 94,350 94,523 94,807 25,059 25,098 25,010 58.98 58.80 58.88 8,491 8,481 8,370 7.5 7.5 7.4 2.7 2.7 2.7 18.0 17.6 17.3 2,3 2.3 2,3 October November . . , December . , . 102,480 102,598 102,888 95,157 95,497 95,681 25,080 25,123 25,258 58.96 59.06 59.20 8,367 D8,142 8,191 7.3 B>7.1 7.2 K>2.7 2.8 2.8 16.7 17.4 17.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 103,071 103,345 S>1Q3,757 96,045 r96,161 r96,514 25,338 r25,235 r25,326 59.24 59.35 [H>59.55 8,484 8,399 8,396 7.4 7.3 7.3 2.9 3.0 2.9 ©15.3 15.9 15.9 >.0 2.1 2,1 103,517 E>P96,731 E)p25,361 59.41 8,426 7.3 2.8 16.1 2.1 November , , , December . . , 4.2 1984 2,8 2.7 1985 January February March April May June July August September , . . October November . . . December . , . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pates 14, 15, 17, and 18. 1 Datu exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency. 62 MAY 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued a MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS . . . . . . . . Minor Economic Process PRODUCTION AND INCOME Comprehensive Output and Income ccc Timing Class 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars Year and month 223. Current dollars • (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) c cc c, c c Personal income 52. Constant (1972) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Industrial Production 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1972 dollars • (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) c, c c c c c. 53. Wages and salaries in 1972 dollars, mining, mfg., and construction (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 47. Index of industrial production (1967 = 100) CCC 73. Index of ' industrial production, durable manufactures (1967 = 100) CUL 74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (1967-100) ccc 49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, , bil. dol.) 1983 l,49l!b 2,659.7 2,656.8 2,671.8 1,264.1 1,260.9 1,265,7 1,075.5 1,071.1 1,074.8 210.5 209.4 210.1 137.4 138.1 140.0 122.5 123.9 126.3 157.4 159.0 160.7 658*. 9 1,524.8 2,693.2 2,715.8 2,734.4 1,268.0 1,275.6 1,282.6 1,077.6 1,083.0 1,091.3 210.5 210.9 212.2 142.6 144/4 146.4 129.1 131.0 133.2 163.3 165.4 167.8 681'.6 1,55CL2 2,744.9 2,759.9 2,785.0 1,283.3 1,284.9 1,291.1 1,094.2 1,096.8 1,104.1 213.1 213,5 215.9 • 149.7 151.8 153.8 136.8 138.8 141.6 170.6 172.9 174.6 698* i 1,572!7 2,814.9 2,834.2 2,860.4 1,306.2 1,312.1 1,321.2 1,119.1 1,121.9 1,130.8 • 217.2 218.4 219.8 155.0 155,3 156.2 142,8 143.6 145.0 175.6 174.8 173.9 715!5 January February March 1,610*9 2,897.4 2,923.5 2,940.6 1,332.8 1,341.7 1,344.0 1,144.1 1,153.1 1,155.3 221.9 223.1 222 : 7 158.5 160.0 160.8 148.6 150.5 151.4 175.2 177.2 177.6 744! 9 April May June 1,638.8 2,968.5 2,978.8 3,006.5 1,354.2 1,358.9 1,371.6 1,165,0 1,169.7 1,181.8 224.6 224.7 225.6 162.4 162.8 164.4 152.6 153.3 154.9 179.1 179.9 181.3 767',4 July • August . , September 1,645.2 3,027.7 3,045.8 3,068.3 1,373.1 1,373.2 1,380.3 1,183.9 1,183.9 1,191.9 225.5 225.7 225.1 165.9 0)166.0 165.0 157.2 157.8 157.1 October . . November December 1,662.4 3,079.3 3,097.5 3,111.8 1,381.5 1,389.0 1,397.9 1,191.8 1,198.4 H>l,210.3 224.5 226.3 228.0 164.4 164.8 164.8 157.1 157.6 157.6 r3,127.2 r3,139.6 r3,156.4 rl,396.1 (H>rl,665.4 rl,398.5 . rl,401.0 rl,200.7 rl,202.3 rl,205.8 (H)229.0 r227.8 228.4 rl65.1 rl65.3 rl65.8 • pi,208.4 p228.0 P165.4 January February March April May June' ;. . July August September . • October . . November December • 1984 E>181.8 181.7 180.3 766'. 8 179:4 179.6 179.6 E)778.8 rl57.6 rl58.0 (H>rl59.0 r!79.6 rl78.9 rl78.9 r773^2 P158.4 P178.8 1985 January February , March . [H>p3,174.2 April May . . , June . . , E)pl,403.3 • July . . .,' August September October , November December See note' on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40. MAY 1985 63 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued • H mSM MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Minor Economic Process Q Capacity Utilization Timing Class Year and month PRODUCTION AND INCOME- Continued Orders and Deliveries L, C, U L.C.U 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials L.L.L (Percent) L, L, L Manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries 7. Constant (1972) dollars 6. Current dollars (Percent) CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) L, L, L L.L.L 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods and materials 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) L.L.L L. Lg, U 32. Vendor performance, companies receiving slower deliveries ® 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (Percent reporting) (Bil. dol.) 1983 January February March 70.0 70 71 68.7 70.1 71.5 82.16 77.17 78.99 35.17 32.78 33.57 31.29 31.53 31.61 April May June 72.9 73.8 74.9 72. 73. 74.4 82.40 82.87 88.87 34.96 35.04 37.42 32.03 33.06 33.84 July August September . . . 76.4 77.3 78.4 76.5 77.4 78.6 87.96 88.80 91.58 36.94 37.26 38.38 34.38 35.02 35.17 October November . . . December . . . 78.9 78.8 78.9 79.5 79.6 79.6 95.40 98.04 98.63 39.93 40.97 41,11 January February March 80.1 80.9 81.0 80. 81, 82, 99.55 101.79 104.45 April May June 81.5 81.7 82.2 82, 82, 82, July August September , . . 82.8 October November . , , December . , . 291.86 291.04 290.62 41 M 50 292.73 294.01 298.17 52 52 52 3.33 2.53 3.22 301.50 304.04 307.25 52 61 60 36.32 37.07 37.55 5.85 5.13 1,89 313.10 318.24 320.12 64 59 67 41.51 42.24 E>43.18 38.33 38.30 37.21 4.38 5.44 D8.14 324.50 329.94 338.09 63 68 97.31 100.95 98.34 40.13 41.65 40.47 37.16 37.42 36.56 1.85 4.06 0.61 339.93 343.99 344.60 71 70 82.0 83.1 .2 82.4 101.98 101.86 98.21 41.98 41.85 40.32 37.51 37.39 36.21 0.00 348.73 350.34 (H)35Q.34 60 54 58 81.7 81.6 81.4 81.0 80.9 80.4 96.51 104.43 101.31 39.65 42.78 41.52 36.98 37.68 r37.20 -4.30 2.04 -2.63 346.04 348.08 345,44 52 50 45 January February . . . . March r81.2 80.9 81.0 80.5 r80.8 r80.8 @>105.45 rlO2.47 r99.73 43.16 r41.87 r40.66 (fi>39.19 37.83 r36.99 3.48 rO.75 r-2.44 348.92 r349.67 r347.23 47 48 46 April May June P80.5 P80.2 plOO.70 P41.05 P38.O2 p-1.47 P345.76 44 -0.42 1984 1985 July August September . . . October November . . . December . . , See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on paje$ 12, 20, and 21. 64 MAY 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS ^ J W m FIXED CAPITAL I S I INVESTMENT CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELrVERIES—Continued Minor Economic Process Formation of Business Enterprises Consumption and Trade Timing Class C.C.C c,c,c Manufacturing and trade sales Year and month 57. Constant (1972) dollars 56. Current dollars (Mil. do!) (Mil. dol.) C r L, U C, L, C • 75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods U.L.U Sales of retail stores 54. Current dollars (1967 = 100.) (Mil. dol.) 59. Constant (1972) dollars (Mil. dol.) L.C.C 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Ann. rate, oil. dol.) LrLtL 58. index of consumer sentiment @ (1st Q 1966=100) L,U 12. Index of net business formation (1967-100) L.L.L 13. Number of new business incorporations1 (Number) 1983 347,323 345,215 350,370 154,166 153,092 155,596 143.6 143.4 144.3 92,041 92,159 94,231 45,542 45,646 46,534 78^4 70.4 74.6 80.8 111.4 113.3 112.7 49,999 48,296 48,032 155,840 159,750 163,430 147.7 150.4 152.4 95,073 96,827 98,291 46,742 47,464 48,158 88. i June . . . . 353,371 360,313 368,553 89.1 93.3 92.2 112.0 114.8 116.4 48,903 50,211 50,992 July August . . September 370,864 374,813 380,348 162,746 163,623 165,068 154.8 156.3 157.3 98,651 98,590 99,534 48,169 47,999 48,364 9(L2 93.9 90.9 89.9 ' 115.2 114.4 115.8 48,601 52,828 50,445 October November December 385,163 389*775 399,089 166,438 168,593 172,020 156.9 156.1 157.7 100,980 102,202 102,867 48,996 49,613 49,815 96.3 89.3 91.1 94.2 118.0 117.8 116.3 50,441 51,642 51,557 January February . March 402,489 402,395 404,612 173,254 172,231 172,733 159.5 159.4 160.2 106,136 105,726 104,525 51,076 50,928 50,228 101.9 100.1 97.4 DlOl.O 115.9 117.2 116.9 53,044 53,591 53,424 April May June 408,342 412,524 1,61.4 161.7 163 0 107,443 107,941 109,085 51,630 52,020 52,698 [H>104!6 QIC 174,104 177,265 178,302 96.1 98.1 95 5 117.5 115.7 117 0 53,933 51,166 54 729 July August September 412,233 413,300 412,276 176,575 . 177,143 176,087 E>163.8 162.5 161.6 107,563 107,396 108,373 51,713 51,509 51,878 ioo!9 96.6 99.1 100.9 115.8 119.1 E>119.7 52,092 51,723 52,237 October November December 414,243 417,635 E>421,613 176,602 178,276 H>180,437 161.6 162.6 162.2 108,974 110,255 110,519 51,991 52,628 52,829 ioi!s 96.3 95.7 92.9 117.7 116.0 116.6 52,587 53,490 p53,503 417,350 r418,667 p420,167 rl78,633 rl79,086 pl79,396 110,972 rll2,096 rill,266 52,844 (H>r53,303 r52,833 96.0 93.7 93.7 rll7.8 rll8.4 rll5.2 (NA) rlO3/2 (NA) (NA) E>pll2,225 P53.112 94.6 P115.1 January . . , February March •. April May 1984 , All 1985 January February March April May . . . June rl62.1 rl62.0 rl62.5 . p.161.9 . : July August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 14, 22, and 23. S e r i e s 13 reached i t s high value (57,5073 in December 1982. MAY 1985 65 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC 0 | PROCESS FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued Minor Economic Business Investment Commitments Process Timing Class L, L.L L, L, L Contracts and orders for plant and equipment Year 10. Current and dollars month (Bil. dol.) 20. Constant (1972) dollars (Bil. dol.) L,L,L L.L.L Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods industries 24. Current dollars (Bil. dol.) L.C.U 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings ' 27. Constant (1972) dollars Square feet of floor space (Bil. dol.) (Millions) C Lg, Lg U, Lg, U Square meters of floor space * (Millions) U. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations 97. Backlog of capital appropria tions, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Bil. dol.) (Bil. dol.) 1983 January February March April May June July August September October November December 23.72 24.07 23.82 11.77 12.59 20.94 19.18 20.13 10.44 9.67 11.01 61.13 58.88 55.37 5.68 5.47 5.14 26.07 26.57 27.49 13.14 13.25 14.24 22.26 21.50 , 23.69 11.52 11.09 12.61 57.11 57.60 '63.13 5.31 5.35 5.86 20.87 25.73 27.36 28.91 •12.89 13.48 15.20 22.15 22.96 24.99 11.36 11.61 13.54 63.03 63.93 70.18 5.86 5.94 6.52 12 JB 29,28 28.57 28.59 14.66 14.08 13.87 25.38 24.33 25.23 13.01 12.28 12.45 71.15 73.07 68.14 6.61 6.79 6.33 24!g6 29.37 30.98 30.97 14.52 15.55 15.80 25.72 27.02 26.76 13.00 13.89 14.06 72.72 64.41 74.95 6,76 5.98 6.96 26*82 r30.22 33.22 31.77 rl4.70 16.73 16.09 26.33 28.56 27.72 13.11 14.82 14.41 79.78 82.49 74.90 7.41 7.66 6.96 E>37!is 33.06 31.10 31.59 15.36 15.32 15.80 28.14 26.74 27.39 13.33 13.53 14.08 79.55 82.65 75.84 7.39 7.68 7.05 27'59 30.29 31.60 31.15 14.95 16.01 14,06 25.26 26.84 26.89 12.89 14.07 12.34 79.04 83.75 86.73 7.34 7.78 8.06 p28l98 27.34 ©33.73 r31.77 ©18.56 rl5.89 ©29.49 r27.21 ©16.85 rl4 06 11.31 81.14 82.48 87.41 7.54 7.66 8.12 (NA) p29 85 p l 4 47 p25 32 p l 2 65 11.62 ... 20*07 ... 69.60 70.'58 72.'67 73! 50 1984 January February March April May June July August September October November December 78*65 n'.kz 95*90 S)p97.'24 1985 January February , March . . . , April May June 12.80 23.63 E)91 95 [R)8 54 . ,. July . August September October November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24. l This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division. a Convcrted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. 66 MAY 1985 (nk) CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS £9[ Minor Economic Process FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued Residential Construction Commitments and Investment Business Investment Expenditures Timing Class Year and month C Lg, Lg C Lg, Lg 61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment by U.S. nonfarm business 69. Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) C Lg, U 76. Index of industrial production, business equipment (1967-=100) Lg, Lg, Lg C. Lg, C C, Lg, C Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars 87. Structures 86. Total (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L.L.L 28. New private housing units started 88. Producers' durable equipment (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, thous.) ILL 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (1967=100) 89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1972 dollars (Ann, rate, bil. dol.) Revised1 1983 January February March 289*. 68 310.48 301.06 311.28 146.6 142.7 143.7 16l!6 49.6 112*5 1,605 1,675 1,635 115.2 118.8 119.2 46*2 April May June 294,76 312.74 303.52 324.30 146.9 147.7 150.2 165*3 4s!i 117*2 1,512 1,780 1,716 126.5 134.8 142.9 53*4 July August September 309*25 318.66 321.75 327.53 153.3 156.6 158.7 172*6 48*3 12413 1,775 1,907 1,677 145.0 138.4 128.0 57*2 October . . . November December 325*45 326.61 337.76 351.80 161.3 164.1 167.3 184^5 5K4 133.'1 1,696 1,748 1,704 138.6 134.7 131.4 57*8 345.89 349.15 362.85 170.7 171.9 172.1 193.3 54*.l 139*2 1,933 |H>2>208 1,700 D157.6 138.7 362.47 375.82 382.03 173.5 176.5 181.1 202.9 56*.8 146*0 1,949 1,787 1,837 142.6 140.7 143.9 0)60*8 57! i 152*4 1,730 1,590 1,669 126.9 123.0 121.0 60*1 E>154*4 1,564 1,600 1,630 117.8 128.9 127.5 59*2 rl53.4 1,849 r 1,647 rl,883 130.4 129.5 138.8 r59.*4 pi,913 135.9 1984 January February . March 337*48 April . May June 348!34 July August , September 36l!l2 . . - October . November December [8)367*21. 373.33 380.43 394.23 . 185.5 187.6 186.4 209*5 389.76 395.01 187.3 188.4 E>189.6 213! 8 rl89.2 T188.4 rl88.1 |H>r215.2 ©411.87 1 5^4 146.7 60.6 1985 January February March a380*.05 April May . . June a388*86 . r376.51 390.82 P408.21 -(NA) P187.5 H>r61*i '. July . . . August September October . November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25. 1 See ''New Features and Changes for This Issue," page i i i . MAY 1985 67 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month Inventories on Hand and on Order Inventory Investment 30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) Lr L, L L, L,L L.L.L 36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars Actual Smoothed' (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories, book value (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L, L,L 38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (Bil. dol.) Lg. Lg, Lg Lg. Lg, Lg Manufacturing and trade inventories 71. Book value (Bil. dol.) 70. Constant (1972) dollars (Bil. dol.) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods, book value 77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in 1972 dollars (Bil dol.) L, Lg, Lg 78. Mfrs.1 inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order (Ratio) (Bil. dol.) 1983 -16.5 -14.18 2.20 -15.07 -24.16 -17.24 -9.98 -30,0 -7.4 -38.6 -0.04 1.00 0.54 506.71 506.10 502.88 257.82 257.60 256.06 84.37 83.74 82,68 -6.1 2.99 9.18 0.82 -6.16 -2.13 1.68 2.3 7.5 8.9 -0.02 0.64 2.09 503.07 503.70 504.44 255.89 256.22 255.65 82.32 82.06 81.86 July August September , ., 16.79 18.22 12.22 6.63 10.44 13.84 10.6 30.2 39.1 1.77 0.9 505.33 507.85 511.10 255.86 256.31 256.78 82.14 81.70 81.45 October November . . . December . . , 7.2 20.28 19.19 13.51 16.32 17.07 17.45 24.8 36.6 48.7 E>3.02 1.96 1.91 513.17 516.22 520.28 257.29 258.06 259.02 H>31.6 27.55 0)47.38 25.36 18.87 24.78 31.46 53.4 B88.9 80.1 2.81 2.82 2.35 524.73 532.14 538.82 April May June 20.3 39.68 28.45 -6.72 H>35.45 34.32 25.82 85. 54. 23.0 1.81 1.66 -0.22 July August September , , , 30.6 27.41 19.49 16.56 18.42 14.89 17.27 57.0 54.6 45.1 October November . . . December .. . 16.8 8.39 0.07 r-5.72 17.98 11.58 r4.63 r22.21 r20.38 p-4.33 (NA) January February March April May June 1.67 1.68 1.65 191.29 192.29 192.83 192.81 193.45 195.54 1.57 1.57 1.56 197.31 200.27 201.84 81.20 81.55 80.96 1.51 204.86 206.82 208.73 260.17 263.23 265.12 81.16 81.90 83.14 1.50 1.S3 1.53 211.54 214.36 216.71 545.93 550.50 552.42 267.98 270.03 270.03 84.14 85.11 86.38 1.54 1.53 1.51 218.52 220.18 219.97 2.61 -0.18 -0.05 557.17 561.72 565.48 272.11 274.34 276.10 86.95 87.80 88.55 1.54 1.55 1.57 1)222.S8 222.40 222.35 39.3 29.9 26.3 -1.06 568.75 571.24 573.43 277.64 278.27 278.97 88.89 89.27 89.69 1.57 1.56 1.55 219.92 218.36 217.30 r3.-22 r8.90 P12.52 r28.4 r37.7 p-9.4 0.65 -0.48 p-3.07 r575.80 0>r578.94 P578.16 r280.37 r282.32 H)P282.76 89.69 89.86 1)90.12 rl.57 rl.58 BP1.58 217.96 217.47 P214.40 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 1984 January February March 1985 January February March April May June rl9.6 July . . . . . . . August September . . . October November . . , December . . . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27. 1 T h i s s e r i e s i s a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1 , 2 , 2 , 1 ) p l a c e d on t h e t e r m i n a l month of t h e span. MAY 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q | Minor Economic Process Timing Class 98. Change in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and intermediate materials Year and month Stock Prices Sensitive Commodity Prices L.L.L (Percent) U, L, L 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial, materials'© (1967 = 100) L.L.L I, L, L 99. Change in sensitive materials prices Smoothed2 Actual PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS (Percent) (Percent) 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks © (1941-43 = 10) Profits and Profit Margins L, L, L L, L, L Corporate profits after tax 16. Current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 18. Constant (1972) dollars L,C,L L.C.L Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj3 79. Current dollars 80. Constant (1972) dollars L.L.L 22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to corporate domestic income (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bit. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Percent) 48! 9 120*6 57*3 5!3 1983 January February March E>2.53 1.72 232.1 241.3 248.8 1.40 E>2.49 1.80 -0.04 0.78 1.61 144.27 146.80 151.88 April May . . June 0.04 1.62 2.28 253.2 251.5 250.5 0.53 0.66 1.09 E>1.75 1.30 0.88 157.71 164.10 166.39 123*4 58! 9 141*9 67*9 6*3 0.81 1.24 -0.43 256.0 265.2 267.9 1.04 1.71 0.08 0.85 1.10 1.11 166.96 162.42 167.16 142! 6 67.9 160*2 76*5 7*i 1.60 1.08 0.84 273.4 279.8 282.4 1.43 1.24 0.70 1.01 1.00 1.02 167.65 165.23 164.36 141I1 66\4 175*5 83*6 6*9 January February March -1.09 0.97 0.29 283.6 283.6 289.2 -0.45 0.53 0.73 0.81 0.38 0.26 166.39 157.25 157.44 E)i5C)!6 E)7i!o 184i7 87*5 7*1 April May June . . . -0.29 -0.71 -1.04 288.6 E>289.5 286.2 -0.20 -0.28 -0.89 0.31 0.22 -0 19 157.60 156.55 153 12 15CL2 70*3 195^2 92* 1 E>7'i July . . . August . . . September -1.54 -1.20 0.54 280.1 275.6 274.0 -1.43 -1.12 0.13 -0.66 -1.01 -0.98 151.08 164.42 166.11 14U7 65*7 199.8 93*6 6*5 -0.13 0.17 r-0.40 266.4 268.3 261.9 -0.88 0.30 r-0.93 -0.72 -0.39 r-0.33 164.82 166.27 164.48 i4i!6 65'6 203*9 95.0 6*5 r-0.74 -1.69 -0.58 255.8 253.1 252.4 r-1.06 -1.20 -0.39 r-0.53 -0.81 r-0.97 171.61 E>180.88 179.42 pl4C)!o p63.*8 ]H>p209.*8 B>p96.*8 p6.*2 -0.28 257.1 "252.9 0.39 -0.64 1.56 July August September October' November December , 1984 October November December 1985 January February . March '. . . April May June 5 180.62 183.02 July . . . , August September October , November December . . See note on page 60. ; Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29. x This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. 3 See footnote 1 on page 68. IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. ^Average for May 1 through 23. 5 Average for May 1, 8, IS, and 22. 2 ItCII MAY 1985 69 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS I j g j PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Continued Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month U, I, L L.L.L 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj to corp. domestic income' 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Percent) (Cents) Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share Cash Flows Profits and Profit Margins—Continued L. L,L 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector (1977 = 100) L, L,L L,L, L Corporate net cash flow 34. Current dollars Lg, Lg, Lg 63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector 35. Constant (1972) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dot.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (1977 = 100) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product, nonfinancial corporations (Dollars) U, U, Lg 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Actual data (1967-100) Actual data as a percent of trend 64. Compen° sation of employees as ;i percent of na° tional income (Percent) (Percent) 1983 January February . . , March 6.5 3,3 96.4 280.0 130.9 156.8 1.421 227.4 225.6 223.9 100.9 99.8 98.7 76.0 April May June 7.5 4.0 97.9 310.5 146.2 155.4 1.408 221.9 220.4 219.0 97.4 96.4 95.4 75.2 July August September .. 8.1 4.2 98.7 339.6 159.2 155.1 1.400 216.4 214.7 214.4 93.9 92.8 92.3 74.5 October November . . . December . . . 8.9 4.5 98.8 345.6 160.9 156.8 1.408 215.0 217.1 219.2 92.1 92.6 93.1 74.3 January , February March . , 9.1 4.9 98.7 360.4 167.5 157.7 1.415 218.4 218.5 218.7 92.3 91.9 91.6 73.5 April May June 9.6 E>4.9 99.8 366.7 169.3 156.5 1.414 218.9 218.1 217.0 91.2 90.5 89.6 73,3 July August September . . . 9.7 4.5 99.7 366.7 168.4 158.0 1.434 215.8 216.6 217.9 88.7 88.6 88.8 73.4 October November . . . December , . . 9.9 4.3 375.3 171.3 158,4 1.438 219.1 220.6 222.7 88.9 89.1 89.5 73.4 .9 CNA) E>p382.6 E>P173.2 DP161.4 0>pl.463 r223.6 223.3 T223.5 89.4 88.9 88.6 [H)p73.9 1984 1985 January . , February . March . . , p99.6 April . . May . . June . . P88.2 July . . . . August . . September October . . November December See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30. l IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 70 MAY 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued B MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS . 1 Minor Economic Process . . t Timing Class Year and month MONEY AND CREDIT Money L, U 85. Change in money supply M l (Percent) Velocity of Money L.C.U 1 L, L L, L, L L.l.L 102. Change in money supply M 2 104. Change in total liquid 105. Money supply Ml in 1972 dollars 106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (Percent) (Bil. dol.) (Percent) (Bil. dol.) C, C, C 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml (Ratio) Credit Flows C, Lg, C 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (Ratio) L.L.L L.L.l 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 112. Net change in business loans (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1983 January . February March . . 0.75 1.18 1.16 H>2.78 1.83 0.82 Dl.35 0.91 0.67 206.7 209.2 211.4 857.2 873.5 879.7 6.476 1.324 1.299 1.295 45.77 40.99 -40.55 46.25 -1.91 10.98 April . . . . May . . . . June 0.69 E>1.32 0.81 0.70 0.78 0.68 0.96 0.67 0.84 211.5 213.4 214.6 880.0 883, 887, 6.469 ,296 ,297 .297 1.30 -38.76 32.99 -46.07 -45.98 3.02 July . . . . August . . September 0.96 0.70 0.41 0.61 0.52 0.63 0.99 0.82 0.72 215.8 216.6 216.7 889,0 890.6 893.0 6.462 ,294 .295 ,298 63.30 70.21 5.22 -3.26 14.05 -0.50 October . . November December 0.67 0.42 0.34 0.90 0.64 0.49 0.57 0.96 1.16 217.4 217.6 217.7 898.0 900.7 902.4 6.523 1.301 1.301 1.307 81.37 78.73 110.02 18.46 53.30 January February March . . . . . . 0.64 0.53 0.58 0.61 0.67 0.55 0.68 0.93 1.24 217.7 218.0 218.7 902.4 904.8 907.1 6.650 1.316 1.319 1.319 78.56 89.56 110.09 0.16 55.91 (H>110.20 April May June . . . . . . . 0.35 0.61 0.88 0.54 0.63 0.63 0.78 .05 .16 218.5 219.5 221.0 908.2 912.4 916.3 6.712 1.325 1.321 1.325 129.68 131.71 113.03 87.13 81.90 93.26 July . . . . ; . . August September . . . -0.07 0.37 0-47 0.48 0.55 r0.68 1,07 0.80 0.86 220.1 220.0 220.3 917.8 919.0 922.0 6.728 1.328 1.328 {H>1.329 113.89 109.14 [H>rl40.08 38.29 15.88 42.76 October November . . . December . . . -0.58 1.00 0.85 r0.47 1.16 rl.O9 0.61 0.82 1.00 218.4 220.1 221.5 r923, r932, r940.5 5.791 1.328 r1.320 1.312 r87.59 70.76 22.69 January February March . . . : . . . 0.75 rl.19 0.47 rl,14 0.92 r0.32 0.68 0.67 0.54 222,7 r224.6 r224.6 949.4 E>954.8 r953.3 r6.719 1.304 1.297 rl.300 r89.66 P45.16 (NA) April . . . . . . . May . . . . . . . June P0.51 '0.57 p-0.07 (NA) 1984 52.49 57.98 r8.10 1985 P949.1 pi.308 r38.95 r24.16 r30.ll p2.44 July . . . . . . . August September . . . October November . . . December , . . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32. 1 Average for weeks ended May 6 and 13. MAY 1985 71 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS i l l Minor Economic Process . . . . . . . . Year and month L,U 113. Net change in consumer installment credit (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) L.L.L L,L,L 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (Ann. rate, percent) Bank Reserves Credit Difficulties Credit Flows-Continued Timing Class . . . . . . MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued 110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Ann. rate, mil. dol.) L.L.L 14. Current liabilities of business failures © (Mil. dol.) L.L.L 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over (Percent) L, U. U 93. Free reserves © (Mil. dol.) Interest Rates L, Lg, U 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve © (Mil. dol.) L, Lg, Lg 119. Federal funds rate © (Percent) C Lg, Lg 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91 day Treasury bills @ (Percent) 1983 January . February March . . 23.30 21.24 40.02 8.4 2.9 0.1 263,148 April , . . May . . . June . . . 33.78 35.38 47.28 -0.6 -3.8 5.5 389,164 July August . . . . September , . 53.48 54.48 44.68 8.9 9.9 2.6 384,480 October.... November . . December . , 73.66 69.02 76.45 8.6 11.7 14.3 E)527,176 63.20 74.26 71.15 10.3 15.1 20.3 406,408 81.50 1)109.12 84.98 20.0 E>24.0 20.6 July August September . . . 77.77 72.26 59.78 October November . . , December . .. 2,158.1 1,086.4 1,154.7 2.24 2.23 2.22 7.81 8.13 46 -122 -415 500 557 852 1,125.6 920.0 2,188.6 -517 -453 -1,234 993 902 1,714 8.80 8.63 829.2 1,353.1 947.2 1.88 -875 -1,127 -943 1,382 1,573 1,441 9.37 9.56 9.45 942 9.39 9.05 1,816.8 1,624.5 868.5 1.91 1.86 1.94 -332 -383 -184 837 912 745 9.48 9.34 9.47 8.71 8.71 8.96 1.84 1.85 -102 376 -241 715 567 952 9.56 9.S9 9.91 8.93 9.03 9.44 502,512 2.06 1.96 2.02 -742 -2,408 -2,526 1,234 2,988 3,300 10.29 10.32 11.06 9.69 9.90 9.94 13.7 11.8 17.1 358,892 1.96 1.93 2.10 -5,311 B>-7,328 -6,614 5,924 ©8,017 7,242 11.23 H>11.64 11.30 10.13 ©10.49 10.41 67.57 72.96 81.83 11.1 12.1 6.4 P521.420 1.91 1.97 2.09 -5,397 -3,924 -2,333 6,017 4,617 3,186 9.99 9.43 8.38 9.97 8.79 8.16 86.68 rlO8.49 100.10 13.9 r9.4 pl3.1 (NA) 2.20 2.19 2.40 -650 -386 r-827 1,395 1,289 19593 8.35 8,50 7.76 8.22 8.57 (NA) <NA) (NA) p-584 8.61 8.77 8.30 8.2S 8.19 8.82 1984 January February . . . March April May June (NA) E)1.78 1985 January February March April May June pi,323 8.58 l 8.27 8.15 July August September . . . October November . . . December . . . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on paces 13, 32, 33, and 34. x Averagq for weeks ended May 1, 8, IS, and 22. 2 Average for weeks ended May 2, 9, 16, and 23. 72 MAY 1985 a 8.00 7.65 CYCLICAL INDICATORS B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued MAJOR ECONOMIC PROCESS Q Minor Economic Process Timing Class Year and month MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued Interest Rates—Continued Lg, Lg, Lg C, Lg, Lg U, Lg, Lg 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate 115. Yield on long-term Treasury 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20bond average © bonds © bonds © (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) Outstanding Debt Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 118. Secondary market yields onFHA mortgages ® (Percent) (Percent) Lg, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg 67. Bank rates on short-term business 109. Average prime rate charged by loans © banks © 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (Percent) U, Lg, Lg Lg, Lg, Lg Commercial and industrial loans outstanding 72. Current dollars 101. Constant (1972) dollars (Mil. dol.) (Mil. do!.) (Mil. dol.) U. Lg, Lg 95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (Percent) 1983 January . . . 1 . February March . . . . i . 12.04 12.11 11.81 10.37 10.60 10.34 9.50 9.58 9.20 12.87 12.65 12.68 10.20 11.16 10.98 10.50 330,217 331,987 335,322 268,553 268,394 269,309 106,653 106,253 106,699 12.42 12.50 12.55 April May June 11.58 11.24 11.90 10.19 10.21 10.64 9.05 9.11 9.52 12.50 12.41 12.96 10.31 10.50 10.50 10.50 338,137 341,085 345,025 265,470 261,638 261,890 105,178 103,373 103,147 12.56 12.56' 12.62 July August September . . . 12.46 12.89 12.68 11.10 11.42 11.26 9.53 9.72 9.58 14.23 13.78 13.55 11.09 10.50 10.89 11.00 349,482 354,022 357,745 261,618 262,789 262,747 102,756 102,732 102,515 12.73 12.83 12.85 October . . .;. . November . . . December . . . 12.54 12.86 12.87 11.21 11.32 11.44 10.95 ,00 ,00 9.89 13.23 13.23 13.25 11.00 363,883 369,635 376,006 261,999 263,537 267,979 101,985 102,743 104,272 12.93 13.04 13.15 January February March . . . . . . 12.65 12.80 13.36 11.29 11.44 11.90 9.63 9.64 9.93 13.08 13.20 13.68 11.06 11.00 11.00 11.21 381,273 387,461 393,390 267,992 272,651 281,834 103,632 105,108 107,941 13.16 13.25 13.38 April May June 13.64 14.41 .49 12.17 12.89 E>13.00 9.96 10.49 0)10.67 13.80 H>15.01 14.91 12.45 11.93 12.39 12.60 400,182 409,275 416,357 289,095 295,920 303,692 110,595 113,163 116,179 13.48 13.74 13.85 July August . . . . . . September . . . 14.25 13.54 13.37 12.82 12.23 11.97 10.42 9.99 10.10 14.58 14.21 13.99 0)13*29 13.00 0)13.00 12.97 422,838 428,860 433,842 306,883 308,206 311,769 117,176 118,132 120,050 13.97 14.08 14.14 October . . . ' . . November . . . December . . . 13.02 12.40 12.47 11.66 11.25 11.21 10.25 10.17 9.95 13.43 12.90 12.99 11.29 12.58 11.77 11.06 439,473 445,553 452,372 316,143 320,975 r321,650 121,687 123,215 rl23,664 14.27 14.38 14.54 12.46 12.39 12.85 11.15 11.35 11.78 9.51 9.65 9.77 13.01 13.27 13.43 10.61 10.50 10.50 459,595 10.10 r468,636 [H>476,978 r324,896 r326,909 r329,418 rl24,912 rl25,928 H>rl27,090 rl4.70 rl4.93 H>pl5.11 12.45 HI.94 11.42 HI.08 9.42 2 9.06 12.97 (NA) H)p329,621 pl26,924 (NA) 1984 1985 January February March April May June 10.50 3 10.40 July August . . . . . . September . . . October November . . . December . . . See note on page 60. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35. 1 Average for weeks ended May 3, 10, 17, and 24, Average for weeks ended May 2, 9, 16, and 23. Average for May 1 through 24. 2 3 MAY 1985 73 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE DIFFUSION INDEXES Year and month 950. Twelve leading indicator components (series 1,5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106, 111) 1-month span 6-month span 951. Four roughly coincident indicator components (series 41,47,51,57) 1-month span 6-month span 952. Six lagging indicator components (series 62, 77,91,95, 101, 109) 1-month span 6-month span 961. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing industries 962. Initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas- 963. Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 136 industries 1-month span 9-month span 1-month span 9-month span 1-month span 6-month span 1983 January February . , . March 75.0 70.8 66.7 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 25.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 33.3 50.0 25.0 16.7 16.7 16.7 77,5 12,5 100.0 90.0 90.0 80.0 68.6 57.8 35.3 98.0 96.1 100.0 54.3 46.5 60.8 50.8 63.0 69.2 April May June 87.5 70.8 87.5 91.7 100.0 91.7 87.5 100.0 100.0 100,0 100.0 100.0 25.0 8.3 25.0 16.7 16. 33. 90.0 30.0 85.0 85.0 95.0 95.0 80.4 48,0 84.3 90.2 92.2 68.9 69.5 64.6 75.1 80.0 82.4 July August . . . . September . . 62. 62. 75.0 75.0 100.0 100, 100, 100.0 58.3 33. 41. 66.7 70. 62, 92, 95.0 70.6 7.8 66.7 91. 83. 66. 88.2 94.1 80.4 74.3 68.6 69.5 84. 1 82. 4 84, 6 October November . . December . . 75.0 45.8 62.5 83. 83. 100.0 100.0 100.0 41. 58. 75,0 85.0 92.5 84.3 86.3 68.6 75.4 69.7 85.9 86.8 66.7 40.0 62.5 55.0 95.0 79.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 73.8 83.8 January February . . , March 58.3 70.8 50.0 75.0 70.8 62.5 100.0 75.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0. 8.3 75.0 75.0 66. 66. 75.0 77.5 50.0 22.5 80.0 30.0 32.5 36.3 72.5 76.5 90.2 56.9 71.1 73.2 67.0 81.9 April May June 58.3 41.7 29.2 25.0 25.0 29.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 83.3 66.7 66.7 83. 83. 83. 87.5 7.5 37.5 27. 52, 15.0 43.1 29.4 92.2 66.7 70.6 38.2 63.8 64.1 63.0 76.4 69.2 63.2 July August September . . , 16.7 37.5 75.0 33.3 33.3 33.3 75.0 87.5 50.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 83.3 75.0 83.3 83. 66. 66.7 37.5 60.0 70.0 22.5 50.0 7.5 19.6 51.0 74.5 27.5 37.3 13.? 62.4 57.6 40.8 62, 62. 63. October , . November December 33.3 75.0 41.7 66.7 50.0 50.0 62.5 100.0 87.5 75.0 75.0 100.0 75.0 50.0 66.7 83.3 83.3 66.7 22. 72. 62.5 r45.0 r7.5 7.8 70.6 72.5 33.3 P15.7 (NA) 65.7 51.9 63.5 60. 5 55,1 r59.7 60.0 50.0 rlOO.O noo.o 66.7 r50.0 58.3 "50.0 42.5 rlO.O r95.0 P53.2 P82.4 58.4 r47.3 54.6 P35.0 (NA) P51.9 58. 16. 95. 92. 78.4 96.1 58.8 35.3 60.8 1984 p40.0 82.7 79.7 1985 January February March April May June 66.7 50.0 41.7 2 4Q.Q 2 100.0 3 66.7 "12.5 13.7 70.6 July August September . .. October . . November December NOTE; Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on page 36. ^Figures arc the percent of components declining. ^Excludes series 36 and 111, for which data are not available. Excludes series 57, for which data are not available. "lixeludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available. 74 MAY 1985 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS C DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued Year and month 964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34 durable goods industries 1-month span 9-month span 965. Newly approved capital appropriations in 1972 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries 1 quarter span 967. Spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials © 966. Industrial production, 24 industries 4-Q moving average 1-month span 6-month span 1-month span 9-mohth span 968, Stock prices, 500 common stocks1 © 1-month span 9-month span 960. Net profits, manufacturing, about 600 companies2 © (4-quarter span) 1983 January February March 72.1 57.4 61.8 88.2 82.4 85.3 45 April May June 79.4 63.2 69.1 86.8 88, 91, 53 July August September 55.9 70.6 97. 91. 91. 50 61.8 October November December 63.2 64.7 58.8 97.1 94.1 91.2 59 January . . . . February . . , March . . . . , 67.6 50.0 52.9 91.2 79.4 85.3 71 April May June 35.3 58.8 26.5 75.0 52.9 41.2 59 July , August . . . . September . . 55.9 51.5 41.2 44.1 61.8 52.9 36 October November . . December . . 55.9 55.9 52.9 29.4 r58.8 p50.0 p65 79.2 87.5 91.7 61 76, 57, 80.8 61.5 57.7 63.3 59.2 73.5 100.0 98.0 93.9 71 56 75.0 58.3 75.0 91.7 95.8 95.8 65, 46. 46.2 80.8 96.2 88.5 81.6 91.8 65.3 89.8 87.5 86.5 74 52 83.3 91.7 79.2 87. 83. 75. 95.8 91.7 81.3 57.7 73.1 57.7 88.5 80.8 73.1 52.0 30.6 85.4 91.5 80.9 72.3 82 59 62. 56. 69.2 76.9 42,3 80.8 80.8 73.1 47.9 57.4 61.7 38.3 40.4 34.0 81 60 70.8 79.2 83.3 87.5 89.6 91.7 83.3 38.5 61.5 65.4 73.1 65.4 42.3 52.1 10.6 60.6 41.5 25.5 58.7 76 56 87.5 79.2 68.8 77.1 66.7 62.5 50.0 50.0 42.3 34.6 30.8 30.8 43.6 36.2 36.2 30.4 37.0 37.0 76 p58 62.5 64.6 70.8 (NA) 70.8 39.6 29.2 62.5 50.0 41.7 34. 46, 46. 23.1 15.4 15.4 34.8 93.5 73.9 60. 54. 65. 47.9 45.8 47.9 r35.4 r33.3 r45.8 30.8 57.7 19.2 15.4 19.2 34,6 34.8 78.3 26.1 82. 82, r56.3 r45.8 r70.8 p45.8 23.1 38.5 57.7 23.1 89.1 93.5 41.3 1984 , ( (NA) 91.3 1985 January February . . . March . . . . . 52.9 35.3 r55.9 April May June p44.1 (NA) P35.4 3 76.9 30.8 3 57.6 July . August . . . . September . . October . . November December See note on page 74. Graphs of these series are shown on page 37. ^ a s e d on 49 industries through August 1983, on 48 industries through October 1983, on 47 industries through June 1984, and on 46 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source. 2 This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun fT Bradstreet, Inc. 3 Based on average for May 7, 14, and 21. BCII MAY 1985 75 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued Q j Year and quarter 970. Expenditures for new plant and equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, 21 industries a. Actual expenditures (1-Q span) b. Later projections c. Early projections (1-Q span) (1-Q span) DIFFUSION INDEXES Continued 971. New orders, manufacturing1© 972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade' @ Actual Actua Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade' © Anticipated (4-Q span) (4-Q span) Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 42.9 16.7 19.0 28.6 38.1 28.6 33.3 47.6 47.6 61.9 76.2 66.7 52 50 52 56 38.1 52.4 81.0 97.6 52.4 61.9 90.5 90.5 42.9 47.6 71.4 66.7 66 74 78 84 81.0 71.4 81.0 61.9 81.0 50.0 76.2 66.7 57.1 71.4 85.7 57.1 (NA) 52.4 52.4 85.7 53 52 52 54 61 66 66 60 63 58 57 60 n 66 77 82 85 62 66 71 74 64 73 80 81 66 74 74 80 68 78 B4 86 90 86 84 79 88 91 90 88 80 79 74 74 84 86 88 84 85 84 82 80 88 90 90 88 (NA) 82 84 (NA) 80 81 (NA) 84 84 60 68 64 60 65 70 66 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1984 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1 M Year and quarter 974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade1 © Anticipated Actual DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued 975. Level of inventorie 5, manufacturing and trade 976. Selling prices, manufacturing1 © Actual Actual '© Anticipated 978. Selling prices, retail trade 1 © 977. Selling prices, wholesale trade'© Anticipated Anticipated Actual Anticipated Actual (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 11 67 68 61 82 78 75 74 68 82 81 76 72 65 66 70 69 63 62 68 70 66 64 68 72 68 69 67 70 71 74 70 70 68 74 76 76 72 73 69 65 65 72 76 75 72 72 68 70 70 70 74 74 68 (NA) 70 70 (NA) 68 66 (NA) 65 70 (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) (4-Q span) 48 46 46 46 50 51 51 48 58 52 52 52 54 56 56 50 72 68 63 60 80 76 68 66 48 54 58 61 50 56 59 60 54 59 62 68 52 58 62 64 61 60 65 68 65 63 62 62 62 64 64 62 72 70 70 70 66 70 70 66 (NA) 60 62 (NA) 64 66 (4-Q span) 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . n 72 68 1984 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . n 69 72 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter . . . . . Fourth quarter . . . . NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are pfaced at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated b y @ , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on paje 38. A This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun § Bradstreet^ Inc. Dun % Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives. 76 MAY 1985 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change Diffusion index components 1984 September October 1985 November December January Marchr February Aprilp 961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURING ' (Hours) All manufacturing industries 40.6 40.4 40.5 40.7 40.6 r40.0 40.4 40.3 Percent rising of 20 components ... (70) (22) (72) (62) (42) (10) (95) (35) Lumber and wood products Furniture and fixtures 40.2 39.9 39.7 39.6 39.5 39.8 40.0 39.6 40.0 40.5 38.8 39.4 39.5 39.4 39.5 39.0 Stone, clay, and glass products Primary metal industries 42.0 41.3 41.8 41.3 41.8 41.5 41.7 41.2 41.6 41.0 r41.4 r40.8 42.1 41.1 •41.1 Fabricated metal products .. Machinery, except electrical . 41.5 42.0 41.3 41.9 41.1 41.7 41.4 41.8 41.4 41.7 r40.6 41.0 41.2 41.6 41.3 41.2 Electric and electronic equipment. Transportation equipment 41.2 42.8 40.9 42.4 41.0 42.4 41.0 43.0 40.8 43.3 r40.1 41.7 40.7 42.4 40.3 42.7 Instruments; and related products . Miscellaneous manufacturing 41.5 39.6 41.2 39.7 41.5 39.7 41.8 39.9 41.2 38.6 r40.6 38.5 41.0 39.2 40.9 38.8 Food and kindred products Tobacco manufacturers 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.9 39.7 40.1 40.1 38.8 39.8 37.3 r39.6 r37.4 39.8 37.6 39.7 34.5 Textile mill products Apparel and other textile products 39.2 35.9 38.7 35.9 39.0 36.0 39.2 36.4 39.3 36.2 r38.8 r35.7 39.1 36.2 39.3 35.9 Paper and allied products. Printing and publishing ... 43.1 37.9 43.0 37.8 43.2 37.9 43.1 37.7 43.1 37.9 r42.8 r37.6 43.1 37.6 42.9 37.6 Chemicals and allied products .. Petroleum and coal products ... 41.8 43.1 41.6 43.5 41.7 43.5 41.9 42.9 42.0 43.4 r41.9 r43.5 42.2 43.6 41.9 44.0 Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products . Leather and leather products 41.5 36.5 41.4 36.4 41.6 36.4 42.0 36.9 41.4 37.0 r40.5 r36.2 41.1 36.9 40.9 37.1 Durable goods industries: 42.1 Nondurable goods industries: 964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS. DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES ' (Millions of dollars) All durable goods industries Percent rising of 34 components , 98,210 96,506 + 104,434 101,307 105,447 -rlO2,467 99,728 + 100,702 (41) (56) (56) (53) (53) (35) (56) (44) Primary metals Fabricated metal products.. + 10,086 11,995 '+ 10,462 + 12,257 + + 10,536 13,131 - 10,098 12,824 + + 10,803 13,582 - 10,015 12,979 + + 10,020 13,253 + + 10,834 13,668 Machinery, except electrical Electrical machinery + + 17,800 16,592 - 16,928 14,929 + + 17,905 14,976 + 16,751 15,136 + 15,255 17,935 + 20,497 - rl4,502 + 18,782 15,871 - 17,322 14,777 Transportation equipment Other durable goods industries. - 22,605 19,132 + 22,226 19,704 + - 28,470 19,416 + 26,725 19,773 + + 27,818 20,054 - - 22,532 19,270 + + 24,097 20,004 24,831 19,643 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and °NA", not available. x Data are Seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 2 Data forfrostof the diffusion index components are not available for publication, but they are included in the totals and directions of change for the six major industry groups shown here. MAY 1985 77 CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Continued 1984 Diffusion index components September October 198S November December January February1* Marchr Aprilp 966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (1967-100) All industrial production Percent rising of 24 components } 165.0 164.4 (29) (48) (46) + 164.8 o 164.8 165.1 165.3 165.8 165.4 (48) (56) (46) (71) (35) Durable manufactures: Lumber and products.. Furniture and fixtures . 149.2 194.3 + + 152.6 194.7 152.2 192.1 - 150.4 190.6 o - 150.4 187,0 148.5 190.8 + - 149.5 189.3 (NA) (NA) Clay, glass, and stone products. Primary metals 158.0 94.1 + 160.1 92.7 159.0 91.5 - 158.9 87.8 + + 159.4 89.7 160.4 91.8 + + 161.0 94.5 (NA) 93.2 Fabricated metal products . . . Nonelectrical machinery 139.5 187.9 + - 140.7 187.7 139.0 188.9 + 140.2 - 188.3 + 139.4 189.2 141.7 188.4 + + 142.7 188.6 + - 143.0 188.4 Electrical machinery Transportation equipment 222.8 137.6 - 222.3 137.2 222.5 141.3 + + 224.5 143.3 + 220.3 145.8 219.8 144.7 + 221.3 + 146.6 - 218.8 145.4 Instruments Miscellaneous manufactures 178.5 147,0 + 176.5 148.3 177.5 143.5 + r 180.3 137.7 + 179,3 141.0 179.0 144.1 180.8 144.7 + - 181.1 143.2 Foods Tobacco products 164.3 113.1 + 164.0 119.5 162.9 117.4 164.1 120.5 164.9 115.7 163.2 115.0 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) Textile mill products .. Apparel products 135.4 (NA) - 133.3 (NA) 132.0 (NA) 132.0 (NA) 131.5 (NA) 131.5 (NA) - 131.2 (NA) (NA) Paper and products Printing and publishing 177.5 170.5 + 173.5 172.3 173.0 174.0 173.7 174.1 174.3 174.5 176.4 173.7 + 175.5 174,4 + 174.5 175.1 Chemicals and products Petroleum products 230.8 122.6 + 228.0 122.9 230.2 124.0 228.1 120.3 227.8 116.1 227.5 117.7 + £26.9 121.0 + (NA) 124.2 Rubber and plastics products Leather and products 338.4 57.9 + 338.6 55.0 332.2 55.9 331.3 56.6 334.5 54.1 334.1 54.1 + + 335.7 55.0 (NA) (NA) Metal mining .. Coal 84.5 173.7 + - 91.2 127.8 87.5 134.4 76.3 142.1 144.5 + + 87.3 154.8 84.7 168.0 (NA) 160.8 Oil and gas extraction Stone and earth minerals .. 122.4 154.6 + - 122.6 147.8 123.8 147.5 123.6 146.0 124.0 146.7 + 120.5 147.8 120.6 148.0 118.5 (NA) Nondurable manufactures: (NA) Mining: 82.7 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (—) - falling, preliminary; and "NA", not available. x Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. 3 Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. 78 The "r" indicates revised; "p", MAY 1 9 8 5 ItCII CYCLICAL INDICATORS C I DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued ^ J SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Continued 1984 Diffusion index components September October 1985 November December January February March May1 April 967. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICES RAW INDUSTRIALS 2 Raw industrials price index (1967 = 100) ..... - Percent rising of 13 components 274.0 - (46) 266.4 + 268.3 - (58) (31) 261.9 - 255.8 - (23) (19) 253.1 - (38) 252.4 + (58) 257.1 - (77) 252.9 (31) Dollars Copper scrap..; (pound).. (kilogram).. - 0.435 0.959 - 0.421 0.928 Lead scrap (pound) (kilogram).. - 0.143 0.315 - 0,120 0.265 Steel scrap (U.S. ton):, (metric ton).. + 92.000 101.412 - 0.458 1.010 - 0.447 0.985 + 0.450 0.992 + 0.462 1.019 - 0.454 1.001 + 0.479 1.056 - 0.477 1.052 + 0.141 0.311 - 0.137 0.302 - 0.109 0.240 o 0.109 0.240 - 0.099 0.218 + 0.114 0.251 + 0.120 0.265 88.000 97.002 - 86.500 95.349 - 86.000 94.798 + 91.000 100.309 + 94.500 104.167 + 95.500 - 85.600 94.357 - 74.000 81.570 5.225 11.519 + 5-528 12.187 - 5.520 12.169 0.459 1.012 + 0.474 1.045 o 0.474 1.045 • 105.270 Tin (pound).. (kilogram).. 5.585 12.313 - 5.404 11.914 + 5.515 12.158 - 5.443 12.000 - 5.085 11.210 - 5.040 11.111 Zinc - (pound) (kilogram).. 0.476 1.049 - 0.4,54 1.001 0 0.454 1.001 0 0.454 1.001 - 0.444 0.979 - 0.439 0.968 0.396 0.433 - 0.395 0.432 0.394 0.431 - 0,374 0.409 - 0.356 0.389 + 0.362 0.396 o 0.362 0.396 0.610 1.345 - 0.599 1.321 + 0.612 1.349 + 0.632 1.393 - 0.618 1.362 0.746 0.816 - 0.702 0.768 0 0.702 0.768 - 0.642 0.702 - 0.613 0.670 0 3.500 7.716 - 3.140 6.922 0.552 1.217 + 0.645 1.422 + 0.675 1.488 Burlap (yard) (meter).. + 0.366 0.400 + 0.395 0.432 Cotton (pound) (kilogram).. - 0.625 1.378 + 0.626 1,380 (yard)., (meter).. •+ 0.779 0.852 + 0.794 0.868 (pound).. (kilogram).. o 3.500 7.716 o 3.500 7.716 . (pound). (kilogram).. + 0.795 1.753 - (100 pounds) (100 kilograms).. o 47.000 103.616 Print cloth -. Wool tops Hides . Rosin Rubber (pound) (kilogram).. Tallow (pound).. (kilogram).. + + - 0.610 1.345 + 0.617 1.360 - + 0.798 0.873 - 0.778 0.851 0 3.500 7.716 0 3.500 7.716 o 3.500 7.716 o 3.500 7.716 0.716 1.578 - 0.625 1.378 - 0.586 1.292 - 0.560 1.235 - 0.520 1.146 o 47.000 103.616 0 47.000 103.616 0 47.000 103.616 o 47.000 103.616 o 47.000 103.616 0 47.000 103.616 + 47.600 104.939 + 50.000 110.230 0.464 1.023 - 0.437 0.963 - 0.426 0.939 - 0.422 0.930 0.421 0.928 o 0.421 0.928 - 0.414 0.913 + 0.417 0,919 - 0.409 0.902 0.218 0.481 - 0.216 0.476 0.223 0.492 - 0.206 0.454 0.198 0.437 + 0.202 0.445 0.206 0.454 + 0.208 0.459 - 0.193 0.425 + + + + 3.000 6.614 NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: {•+•) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( —) = falling. The " r " indicates revised: " p " , preliminary; and "NA", not available. *The index is the average for May 1 through 23; component prices are averages for May 7, 14, and 21. 2 Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data used by permission; they may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. MAY 1985 79 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES I A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT 1i 213. Final sales in 1972 dollars 217, Per capita gross national 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars 200. Gross national product in current dollars Year | GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME and nrnAufil in 1 Q79 quarter b. Difference a. Total (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dot.) c. Percent change at annual rate b. Difference a. Total (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bi . dol.) proouci in ly/i dollars c. Percent change at annual rate (Ann. rate, oil dot) (Ann. rate, dollars) 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter 3,026.0 3,061.2 3,080.1 3,109.6 -1.9 35.2 18.9 29.5 -0.2 4.7 2.5 3.9 1 ,483. 1 ,480. ] ,477. 1 ,478. 3,173.8 3,267.0 3,346.6 3,431.7 64.2 93.2 79.6 85.1 8.5 12.3 10.1 • ,491. : ,524. 8 i ,550. 2 i ,572. 7 3,553.3 3,644.7 3,694.6 3,758.7 121.6 91.4 49.9 64.1 14.9 10.7 r3,817.1 f*58 4 r6.4 5 5 1 8 -17 g -3 0 -3 4 1 7 ,4 .6 -0 .8 -0 .9 0 .5 6, 408 6, 381 6, 349 6, 341 1,490.3 1,484.5 1,483.5 1,503.4 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . o 10.6 12,? 3 .3 9 'A 6 .8 5 .9 6, 379 6, 510 6, 602 6, 681 1,507.5 33 8 25 4 22 5 U549!$ 1,565.4 1984 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter . . . . . , . Fourth quarter i i i l 5.6 7.1 ,610. ,638. ,645. ,662. 9 8 2 4 38 27 6 17 2 9 4 2 10 .1 7 .1 1 .6 4 .3 6, 829 6, 933 6, 943 6, 998 1,579.3 1,618.5 1,614.6 1,645.6 A r3 o rO .7 r 6 , 995 r1,645.9 1985 First quarter i . Second quarter , uuu. *T Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . o i GNP AND PERSONAL JNCOME—Continued and quarter 224. Current dollars 225. Constant (1972) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES 232. Durable goods in current dollars 231. Total in 1972 dollars 230. Total in current dollars Disposable personal income Year 3 233. Durable goods in 1972 dollars 227. Per capita in 1972 dollars (Ann. rat dollars) (Ann. rate, bil. dol) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter , . , Fourth quarter . . . . 2,132. 0 2,156. 8 2,195. 8 2,237. 5 1,052 8 1,054.8 1,057 Q 1,067 6 4 4 4 4 548 546 548 578 ] , 9 3 1 .3 1 ,960 .9 ,001 .3 2 ,046 1,073.1 1,082 .0 1,102 2 1,124 3 4 4 4 4 591 619 694 776 ,070 2 ,141 2 ,181 1 ,230 2 3 4 5 1,147 5 1,165 3 1,176 5 1,186 .7 4 865 4 930 4 965 4 996 ,276 \ ,332 2 ,361 ,396 7 4 .5 r2,653. 4 r l 181 .5 -4 963 r2 ,446 953 958 964 976 7 9 2 3 239. 4 241. 6 244. 5 0 138.5 138.8 139.3 .4 .6 4 2 982 1 ,006 1 ,015 1 ,032 5 2 6 4 2S9. 276. 284. 299. 4 1 1 8 146.8 156.2 159.6 167.2 5 I ,044 1 1 ',065 1 ,075 I 310. 320. 317. 326. 9 7 2 3 17*? 7 2 9 4 r334. 5 rl86.8 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 2,261. 4 2,302. 9 2,367. 4 2,428. 6 . . . . 2,502. 2,554. 2,606. 2,644. 1984 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter 178.6 177.0 182.9 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . r l ,089 2 NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by <§), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 4 1 . MAY 1985 ItO OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued EH Voar Tear •anrl ana quarter 236. Nondurable goods in current dollars (Ann. rate, bit dol.) 'ERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES—Continued 238. Nondurable goods in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 237. Services in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. do!.) 0 1 239. Services in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT 241. Total in 1972 dollars 240. Total in current dollars 242. Fixed investment in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 243. Fixed investment in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 746.4 750.6 762.5 770.6 360.5 362.0 363.7 366.0 945.4 968.6 994.2 1,020.6 454.7 458.1 461.2 465.1 436.2 431.2 415.9 376.2 204.7 200.4 194.3 177.8 453.2 442.1 431.3 437.3 211.4 204,5 200.7 202.4 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1984 775.2 796.9 811.7 823.0 368.8 374.9 378.5 383.2 1,035.8 1,068.6 1,085.7 1,107.5 466.8 475.1 477.6 482.0 405.0 449.6 491.9 540,0 191.3 212.6 230.6 249.5 447.9 469.0 496.2 527.3 207.8 218.7 229.8 242.2 First quarter Second quarter . . . . T h i r d quarter . . . . . Fourth quarter . . . . 841.3 858.3 861.4 866.5 387.1 396.6 395.5 395.0 1,124.4 1,153.7 1,182.8 1,203.8 483.4 488.9 493.5 497.5 623.8 627.0 662.8 637.8 285.5 283.9 300.2 289.9 550.0 576.4 591.0 601.1 253.9 263.7 269.6 273.1 r877.0 r398.4 rl,234.6 r504.0 r651.2 r294.1 r610.6 r274.6 266. State and local government in current dollars 267. State and local government in 1972 dollars 1983 1985 First quarter . . . . . . Second quarter . . . . Third quarter . . . . . Fourth quarter . . . . • H K l Vflor Year anrl ano quarter GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVEST.—Con. 245. Change in business inventories in current dollars 30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES 260. Total in current dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 261. Total in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 263. Federal 262. Federal Government in current dollars Government in 1972 dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . -17.0 -10.9 -15.3 -61.1 -6.7 -4.0 -6.4 -24.6 630.9 290.2 633.7 656.3 681.0 287.0 292.8 300.6 249.8 245.0 261.6 279.4 114.8 111.0 117.2 124.8 381.1 388.7 394.7 401.6 175.4 176.0 175.7 175.8 -42.9 -19.4 -4.3 12.7 -16.5 -6.1 0.9 7.2 678.8 682.2 689.8 691.4 294.3 292.4 292.0 288.8 273.0 270.5 269.2 266.3 119.0 117.2 115.6 113.0 405.8 411.6 420.6 425.1 175.3 175.2 176.4 175.8 73.8 50.6 71.8 36.6 31.6 20.3 30.6 16.8 704.4 743.7 761.0 780.5 289.5 302,1 306.1 310.5 267.6 296.4 302.0 315.7 112.2 123.2 125.0 129.6 436.8 447,4 458.9 464.8 177.3 178.9 181.1 180.9 r40.6 rl9.6 r789.0 r309.1 r316.8 rl28.2 r472.2 rl81.0 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1984 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . ' 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 4 1 , 42, and 43. ItCll MAY 1985 81 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Q Year and quarter 255. Constant (1972) dollars (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dot.) (Ann, rate, bii. dol.) 280, Compensation of employees 257. Constant (1972) dollars 253. Current dollars 256. Constant (1972) dollars 252. Current dollars NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS 220. National income in current dollars Imports of goods and services Exports of goods and services Net exports of goods and services 250. Current dollars • I H I FOREIGN TRADE (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate bil. doi.) 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 27.7 35.5 6.6 6.3 34.9 34.1 25.7 24.1 359.4 366.3 346.3 321.7 152.2 155.1 146.6 136.7 331.7 330.8 339.7 315.4 117.3 121.0 120.9 112.6 2,422.3 2,443.9 2,452.4 2,468.6 1,834.2 1,857.7 1,876.3 1,888.7 19.6 -6.5 -16.4 -29.8 22.9 13.6 11.9 2.0 328.5 328.1 342.0 346.1 138.2 137.0 141.6 141.0 308.9 334.5 358.4 375.9 115.3 123.4 129.7 139.1 2,527.0 2,609.0 2,684.4 2,766.5 1,921.3 1,962.4 2,000.7 2,055.4 -51.5 -58.7 -90.6 -56.0 -8.3 -11.4 -27.0 -13.4 358.9 362.4 368.6 367.2 144.9 144.7 147.4 147.1 410.4 421.1 459.3 423.2 153.2 156.2 174.4 160.5 2,873.5 2,944,8 2,984.9 3,036.3 2,113.4 2,159.2 2,191.9 2,228.1 r-69.1 r-27.0 • r363.5 rl44.8 r4 t 32.6 rl71.8 p3,075.4 r2,272.9 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1984 First quarter . . . . . . Second quarter . . . . Third quarter . . . . . Fourth quarter . . . . 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . E I Year and quarter 282. Proprietors1 income with IVA and CCAdj' (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) Q j SAVING NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Continued 284. Rental income of persons with CCAdj1 (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 286. Corporate profits before tax with tVA and CCAdj1 288. Net interest (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 290. Gross saving (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 292. Personal saving 295. Business saving (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol • 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 116.8 107.7 102.2 117.6 47.8 48.3 52.9 57.0 159.9 161.7 163.3 151.6 263.6 268.5 257.7 253.8 447.0 445.4 397.9 344.8 378.3 386.2 393.8 393.9 142.6 136.7 134.5 130.2 114.7 116.9 123.3 131.9 57.7 59.0 56.2 60.4 179.1 216.7 245.0 260.0 254.2 254.2 259.2 258.9 393.4 414.7 455.2 485.7 417.0 441.4 469.7 486.4 128.0 96.7 119.0 128.7 154.9 149.8 153.7 159.1 61.0 62.0 63.0 64.1 277.4 291.1 282.8 291.6 266.8 282.8 293.5 293.4 543.9 551.0 556.4 556,0 498.8 515.3 525.3 535.2 152.5 144.8 164.1 163.0 rl54.1 r64.8 P294.0 r289.5 P558.8 P547.8 rU8.3 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1984 First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on paces 44, 45, and 46. X IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. 82 MAY 198S ItCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES A I NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued Q Year and quarter SAVING—Contmued Q | SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME 293. Personal saving rate 298. Government surplus or deficit (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) ; Percent of gross national product 235. Personal consumption expenditures . (Percent) (Percent) 248. Nonresidential fixed investment 247. Change in business inventories 249. Residential fixed investment (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 251. Net exports of goods and services (Percent) 1982 First q u a r t e r Second quarter . . . . Third quarter . . . . . Fourth quarter . . . . -73.8 -77.6 -130.4 -179.2 6.7 6.3 6.1 5.8 63.8 64.1 65.0 , 65.8 12.1 11.5 11.1 10.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -2.0 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.2 -151.7 -123:4 -133.5 -129.3 5.7 4.2 5.0 5.3 65.2 65.6 65.2 65.0 10.5 10.4 10.6 11.2 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.2 -1.4 -0.6 -0.1 0.4 0.6 -0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -107.4 -109.2 -133.0 -142.2 6.1 5.7 6.3 6.2 64.1 64.0 63.9 63.8 11.2 11.5 11.8 11.9 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 2.1 1.4 1.9 1.0 -1.4 -1.6 -2.5 -1.5 p-107.4 r4.5 r64.1 11.9 4.1 rl.l r-1.8 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1984 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . £ 1 1 SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME—Continued Year and quarter Percent of national income Percent of GNP—Continued 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services (Percent). 268. State and local government purchases of goods and services (Percent) 64. Compensation of employees (Percent) 285. Rental income of persons with CCAdj1 283. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj1 (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 287. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj1 289. Net interest (Percent) 1982 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 8.3 8.0 8.5 9.0 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 75.7 76.0 76.5 76.5 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.8 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.3 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.1 10.9 11.0 10.5 10.3 8.6 8.3 8.0 7.8 12.8 12.6 12.6 12.4 76.0 75.2 74.5 74,3 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.8 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.2 7.1 8.3 9.1 9.4 10.1 9.7 9.7 9.4 7.5 8.1 8.2 8.4 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.4 73.5 73.3 73.4 73.4 5.4 5.1 5.1 5.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 9.7 9.9 9,5 9.6 9.3 9.6 9.8 9.7 r8.3 12.4 p73.9 p5.0 p2.1 p9.6 p9.4 1983 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1984 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter . . . . 1985 First quarter Second quarter . . . . Third quarter Fourth quarter ( . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown oh pages 46 and 47. *IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment. MAY 1985 83 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY ^ | 310. Index (1972-100) 310c. Change over 1-quarter spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 311. Index (1972 = 100) 311c. Change over 1-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food Consumer price index for all urban consumers Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product Implicit price deflator for gross national product Year and month PRICE MOVEMENTS 320. Index © 320c. Change over 1-month spans' (1967-100) (Percent) 320c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 322. Index (1967-100) 322c. Change over 1-month spans! (Percent) 322c. Change over 6*month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 1983 January February March . . .... .... 5.0 212^9 2.7 2.6 April May June 214^2 July August September 215.9 October November December 218^2 0.1 1.4 2.3 3.4 288.5 288.9 290.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 2,4 2.8 1,1 295.5 297.1 298.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 3.6 4.4 5.0 291.3 292.1 291.5 0.4 0.3 -0.2 2,1 1.9 1.7 4.5 299.3 3OO.3 301.8 0.4 0.3 0.4 4.2 4.1 4.2 291.5 291.7 292.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.7 1.5 3,0 3.5 302.6 303.1 303.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 4.7 4.8 4.6 293.8 294,3 295.9 0.4 0.2 0.5 5.8 7.2 6.4 4.2 305.2 306.6 307.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 4.8 4.5 4.3 299.9 302.0 301.9 1.4 0.7 0.0 5.4 4.6 4.1 308.8 309.7 310.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 3.6 3,7 3.8 301.6 301.0 301.5 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 1.8 1.5 1.7 4.0 311.7 313.0 314.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 302.6 304.2 304.4 0.4 0.5 0.1 2,5 3.3 3.8 3.5 315.3 315,3 315.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 3.4 3.3 3.5 305,4 305.9 307.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 3.4 3,2 316.1 317.4 318.8 0.2 0.3 0.5 3.7 307.7 309.3 309.2 0.2 0.5 0.0 320.1 0.4 308,7 -0.2 -0.1 3.9 222^5 3.1 22516 4.4 0.3 293.1 293.2 293.4 22(L4 226^9 1984 January February March \ 4.4 22CK6 April May June ZZZ.A July August September 224!6 October November December 226! 1 229^3 3.3 23U6 3.9 233^9 2.8 23616 3.8 3.4 1985 January February March r3.9 r5.6 r229.2 April May June r238!3 2.2 July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on paces 48 and 49. 1 Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. MAY 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Q j Producer price index, all commodities Year and month 330. Index © 330c. Change over 6-month spans1 © spans' © (Percent) Producer price index, crude materials for further processing Producer price index, industrial commodities 330c. Change over 1-month (1967 = 100) PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued (Ann. rate, percent) 335. Index © (1967 = 100) 335c. Change over 1-month 335c. Change over 6-month spans1 © spans 1 © (Percent) 331. Index (Ann. rate, percent) (1967 = 100) 331c. Change over 1-month spans1 (Percent) 331c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 1983 299.9 300.9 300.6 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.8 1.1 313.9 313.9 313.5 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 -1.2 -0.9 0.1 316.3 318.0 320.0 -0.5 0.5 0.6 4.1 1.5 2.1 300.6 301.5 302.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 2.2 2.5 3.2 312.4 313.6 315.3 -0.4 0.4 0,5 1.7 2.2 2.3 322.2 321.0 321.1 0.7 -0.4 0.0 1.1 4.8 6.1 303.2 304.7 305.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 3.6 2.7 2.5 316.5 317.3 317.1 0.4 0.3 -0.1 3.9 3.0 2.0 318.1 325.5 329.6 -0.9 2.3 1.3 4.7 5.4 7.9 306.0 305.5 306.1 0.2 -0.2 0.2 3.2 2.8 3.8 318.5 318.3 318.4 0.4 -0.1 0.0 1.6 2.1 3.1 329.7 329.5 333.5 0.0 -0.1 1.2 11.7 2.9 4.6 January February March 308.0 308.9 311.0 0.6 0.3 0.7 3.5 4.0 3.4 319.1 320.6 321.9 0.2 0.5 0.4 2.6 3.1 3.4 336.2 330.2 337.1 0.8 -1.8 2.1 3.5 1.8 -1.9 April May June 311.3 311.5 311.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 2.5 1.2 -1.1 322.6 323.2 323.8 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.0 1.7 0.2 335,4 332.5 330.4 -0.5 -0.9 -0.6 -2.9 -1.7 -5.6 July August September 311.9 310.7 309.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -1.2 -0.8 r-1.0 323.9 323.3 322.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.4 -0.5 331.3 327.4 327.6 0.3 -1.2 0.1 -6.4 -2.0 r-1.1 309.4 310.3 r309.8 0.0 0.3 r-0.2 -1.3 -1.0 -0.4 323.4 323.8 323.0 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 0.2 324.5 329.1 r328.5 -0.9 1.4 r-0.2 -5.4 -6.8 -9.6 January February March 309.8 309.2 308.7 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 323.2 322.5 322.6 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 322.2 316.1 311.5 r-1.9 -1.9 -1.5 -10.1 April May June 309.3 0.2 323.8 0.4 307.7 -1.2 January February March April May June . . \.. . July August September i October November . . . . . . . December . . . . . . . 0.5 1984 October November December .,...,. 1985 July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. 1 Changes ar$ centered within the spans: MAY 1985 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. 85 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Q j Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components Year and month 332. Index 332c. Change over 1 month spans1 (1967-100) (Percent) PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued Producer price index, capital equipment 332c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 333. Index (1967-100) 333c. Change over 1-month spans1 • (Percent) Producer price index, finished consumer goods 333c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 334. Index (1967-100) 334c. Change over 1-month spans' (Percent) 334c, Change over 6-month spansl (Ann. rate, percent) 1933 January February . . , , . . . . March . . . . 309.9 310.0 309.3 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 -1.0 -0.6 0.1 284.1 285.0 285.8 -0.1 0.3 April May June 308.5 309.6 311.1 -0.3 0.4 0.5 1.4 2.1 3.8 July August September 312.1 313.2 315.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 October November December 315.9 315.9 316.4 January February March 0.3 2.6 2.3 1.8 283.4 283.3 282.9 -0.9 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -0.9 285.9 286.3 286.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.3 2.4 1.8 282.8 283.6 284.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.3 4.9 4.1 3.4 287.3 288.4 288.4 0.1 0.4 0.0 2.2 284.5 285.5 286.1 -0.1 2.0 2.0 0.4 0.2 2.6 1.4 1.3 0.3 0,0 0.2 3.2 3.0 2.9 289*0 289.2 289.7 0.2 0.1 0.2 2.2 2.3 2.9 286.5 285.6 286.5 0.1 -0.3 0.3 3.0 2.8 3.6 317.1 317.9 319.6 0.2 0.3 0.5 2.7 3.2 3.2 290.5 291:7 292 5 0.3 0.4 0 3 3.7 3.2 3 1 288.8 289.5 291 2 0.8 0.2 0 6 3,1 3.5 2 7 April May June 320.1 320.9 321.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.4 1.5 0 3 294.3 293.8 294 1 0.6 -0.2 0 1 2.9 2.5 2 3 290.9 290.5 290 3 -0.1 -0.1 -0 1 1.5 0.4 -n Q July August September 320.9 320.3 320.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.0 r-0.5 294.7 295.3 295.8 0,2 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.4 r0.6 291.0 290.1 289.9 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.7 0.3 r0.6 October November December 320.4 320.9 r320.7 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.9 -1.0 295.1 295.9 r295.0 -0.2 0.3 r-0.3 1.6 2.1 2.7 289.9 290.9 r291.2 0.0 0.3 rO.l 0.1 0.1 0.6 January February March 320.4 318.9 318.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.8 297.0 298.4 299.7 rO.7 0.5 0.4 3.1 291.1 290.3 290.7 rO.O -0.3 0.1 1.4 April May June 319.1 0.2 299.7 0.0 291.9 0.4 1984 1985 July August September October November December See note on page 30. Graphs of these series are shown on page 48. ^Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. MAY 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued • WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagncultural payrolls' Year and month Current-dollar earning: 340. Index (1977 = 100) 340c. Change over 1-month spans! (Percent) Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector Current-dollar compensation Real earnings 340c. Change over 6-month spans2 (Ann. rate, percent) 341. Index 341c. Change over 1-month spans' (1977=^=100) 341c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) (Percent) 345. Index ' (1977-100) over 1-quarter spans; 345c. Change over 4-quarter spans* (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 345c. Change 1983 January February March 152.9 153.6 153.6 0.4 0.5 4.4 4.6 0.0 April May June 154.2 154.7 155.1 July August September , . . . * > . . October November December 5.7 0.3 0.5 -0.2 * 3.1 2.4 3.8 94.8 95.3 95.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 3.7 2.4 3.4 94.8 94.8 94.8 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 -1.9 155.6 155.4 156.2 0.4 -0.1 0.5 3.7 3.2 3.5 94.8 94.4 94.5 0.0 -0.5 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 161.9 157.1 157.2 157.8 0.5 0.1 0.4 3.7 4.0 3.7 - 94.8 94.7 94.9 0.3 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0,8 1.1 163.7 January February March 158.4 158.5 159.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 3.6 3.1 3.2 94.8 94.8 95.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.3 0.5 165\9 April May June 159.9 159.6 160.3 0.5 -0.2 0.4 3.0 2.6 3.2 95.3 94.3 95.1 0.3 -0.5 0.3 July August September 160.8 160.6 161.6 0.3 1.8 -0.2 0.6 3.0 3.6 95.1 94.1 94.2 0.0 -1.1 0.1 -2.9 -1.0 -0.8 161.3 162.0 163.1 -0.2 0.4 0.6 2.5 4.1 r3.3 94.0 94.4 94.7 -0.2 0.4 0.4 -1.5 1.2 162.8 163.8 rl64.2 -0.2 0.6 r0.2 p3.9 94.4 94.6 r94.4 -0.4 0.3. r-0.2 P164.4 pO.l p94.2 P-0.3 ....... 159^7 4.1 0.8 3.3 3^9 "!:? 2.3 3.9 4.5 3^9 1984 October November December ...... # • 0.7 -1.5 5.4 4^3 3.5 4.1 167.4 3.7 p4,2 168:9 3.8 17CL5 r0.6 1985 January February March , , .. April May June p0.5 p5.8 p!72*9 July August September •••£.••• October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50. l Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts. 2 Changes are centered within the spans. 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. II MAY 1985 87 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES B I PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued Negotiated wage and benefit decisions Average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector—Continued Year and Real compensation month 346. Index (1977 = 100) 346c. Change over 1-quarter spans' 346c. Change over 4-quarter spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) 348. Average first-year changes @ (Ann. rate, percent) Output per hour, all persons, business sector 349. Average changes over life of contract © (Ann. rate, percent) 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm busi ness sector 370c. Change over 1 quarter spans' 370c. Change over 4 quarter spans' (Ann. rate, percent) (Ann. rate, percent) <1977-100) 3.4 101.6 3.1 103.6 3.5 104.1 3.3 104.4 105.7 2.7 105/i 107.0 3.2 106.6 pi.6 106.3 370. Index (1977=100) 1983 5.3 January . February March . . 98.7 April May 98.5 -1.6 1.4 1.5 -1.0 2.1 102.2 4.4 5.9 3.6 0.6 103.6 June -1.8 July August September . . . 98.0 October.. November December 98.1 5.0 O.I 2.8 4.3 104.3 -0.6 4.9 3.1 -0.4 1.4 104.7 1984 O.I January February March 98.1 April May June 98.1 July August September . . , 98.1 5.1 -O.2 3.2 0.1 0.0 October 2.7 3.1 0.6 107.2 p0.6 0.2 November , . . December . . . 3.5 4.0 4.7 0.1 3.7 2.0 98.1 3.1 108.0 106.9 1985 January . . February . March . . . p2.4 P98.7 p3.6 p-1.9 P3.1 P107.5 P106.5 April May . . . . June July August . . . September . October . . , November . December . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50. 1 Changes are centered within the spans: l~quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter. MAY 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES C I LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT Q CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS Civilian labor force Year and month 441. Total (Thous.) 442. Civilian employment - (Thous.) Number unemployed 37. Persons unemployed 444. Males 20 years and over (Thous.) (Thous.) 445. Females 20 years and over 446. Both sexes 16-19 years of age (Thous.) (Thous.) 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers 448. Number employed part time for economic reasons (Thous.) (Thous.) Civilian labor force participation rates 451. Males 20 years and over 452. Females 20 years and over 453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age (Percent) (Percent) (Percent) 1983 January February March 110,746 110,700 110,733 99,233 99,144 99,303 11,513 11,556 11,430 5,587 5,737 5,620 3,990 3,950 3,895 1,936 1,869 1,915 9,802 9,915 9,747 6,456 6,303 6,179 78,2 78.2 78.2 53.0 53.0 52.9 53.9 53.0 53.0 April May June 110,906 110,892 111,717 99,590 99,634 100,444 11,316 11,258 11,273 5,669 5,657 5,408 3,751 3,750 3,861 1,896 1,851 2,004 9,656 9,521 9,382 6,021 5,989 5,945 78.4 78.4 78.6 52.9 52.7 53.1 52.8 52.5 54.5 July August September 111,707 112,184 112,264 101,173 101,589 101,983 10,534 10,595 10,281 5,186 5,129 5,016 3,481 3,567 3,513 1,867 1,899 1,752 8,934 8,948 8,733 5,858 5,958 5,974 78.7 78.6 78.5 52.9 53.3 53.5 53.7 54.9 53.6 October November December 111,914 112,150 112,237 102,042 102,702 103,029 9,872 9,448 9,208 4,801 4,592 4,382 3,359 3,225 3,227 1,712 1,631 1,599 8,315 7,924 7,679 5,726 5,884 5,677 78.4 78.4 78.3 53.3 53.2 53.3 52.8 53.3 53.5 112,320 112,724 112,906 103,294 103,888 104,123 9,026 8,836 8,783 . 4,273 4,139 4,048 3,191 3,135 3,148 1,562 1,562 1,587 7,532 7,321 7,301 5,719 5,697 5,465 78.3 78.3 78.3 53.1 53.3 53.5 53.4 53.8 53.9 113,202 113,722 113,619 104,402 105,162 105,391 8,800 8,560 8,228 4,087 3,909 3,807 3,161 3,127 2,972 1,552 1,524 1,449 7,331 7,056 6,578 5,520 5,377 5,549 78.3 78.3 78.3 53.6 54.1 53.8 54.2 54.3 54.3 July August September 113,868 113,629 113,764 105,377 105,148 105,394 8,491 8,481 8,370 3,884 3,836 3,817 3,130 3,214 3,044 1,477 1,431 1,509 7,010 6,933 6,931 5,482 5,384 5,449 78.3 78.3 78.3 54.0 53.9 53.6 54.5 53.0 54.2 October November Oecember 114,016 114,074 114,464 105,649 105,932 106,273 8,367 8,142 8,191 3,731 3,725 3,759 3,173 3,027 2,952 1,463 1,390 1,480 6,932 6,768 6,811 5,483 5,413 5,596 78.3 78.3 78.3 53.9 53.9 54.0 53.7 53.5 54.1 January February March 114,875 115,084 115,514 106,391 106,685 107,119 8,484 8,399 8,396 3,798 3,774 3,731 3,161 3,126 3,179 1,525 1,499 1,485 6,963 6,954 6,821 5,389 5,077 5,400 78.2 78.2 78.2 54.4 54.5 54.8 55.2 55.7 56.0 April May June 115,376 106,945 8,426 3,807 3,197 1,422 6,852 5,374 78.2 54.7 55.3 1984 January February March . . April May June ,. . 1985 July August September ,. October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 51. M:# MAY 1$85 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES £) I GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES Q | Federal Government1 Year and month Q RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES State and local government' DEFENSE INDICATORS Advance measures of defense activity 500. Surplus or deficit 501. Receipts 502. Expenditures 510. Surplus or deficit 511. Receipts 512. Expenditures (Ann. rate, til. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred (Mil. dol.) 525. Defense Department prime contract awards 543, Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding 548. Manufacturers' new ordors, defense products (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 1983 January February March -185*7 619.8 805! 6 34! i 458^3 424! 2 21 s 340 19,502 20,444 16,908 13,042 7,351 122,628 123,803 125,570 9,655 5,014 6,361 April May June -16?!3 649^3 816^7 4^9 473^5 429!e 19,332 19,554 21,518 10,132 10,111 10,814 126,165 126,532 129,720 6,578 5,609 7,412 July August September -18CL9 640! 2 821 ! l 47.4 486! 1 438! 7 19,409 20,489 20,388 11,017 10,727 10,921 131,17a 130,829 133,056 7,115 5,496 5,804 October November . December -18CL5 655!6 835^5 5l!2 495!b 44^8 17,201 24,242 24,204 2,820 16,140 9,463 131,130 139,062 141,820 6,792 8,506 7,038 January February March -16ll3 686! 4 847! 6 53.9 509.* 6 455.7 21,145 22,667 23,445 15,089 14,273 13,779 142,169 145,648 150,842 6,503 6,884 11,713 April May June -163!? 704 .*3 868 .*0 54.*5 52o! 6 466.'i 19,185 20,342 19,781 11,398 9,459 11,644 149,369 149,452 151,538 5,139 6,648 6,834 July August September -i8o!e 706\2 886! 8 524! 6 477.6 20,988 23,098 22,191 10,101 12,647 11,441 152,828 156,271 156,950 7,600 8,090 7,301 October November . . December . . . -197.8 721.9 919.7 55.6 539.7 484.0 20,821 28,892 26,686 12,901 25,552 7,017 159,226 168,321 172,010 5,167 10,091 7,448 p-iei.'i P769.3 r930.5 p53.7 p545*8 r492.1 22,492 20,377 p20,346 13,405 12,805 10,088 174,180 173,704 P174.338 11,061 r4,708 r6,240 (NA) (NA) <NA) p6,612 1984 1985 January February March April May Juno July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53. 1 Based on national income and product accounts. 90 MAY 1985 BCII OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued | Q DEFENSE INDICATORS—Continued National defense purchases Intermediate and final measures of defense activity Year and month 557. Index of industrial production, defense and space equipment (1967 = 100) 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book value 561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products 580. Defense Department net outlays, military 588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products 570. Employment, defense products industries 577. Military on active duty© (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dot.) (Mil. dol.) (Thous.) 564. Federal purchases of goods and 578. Civilian, services, direct hire national employment © defense Defense Department personnel (Thous.) (Thous.) (Ann. rate, bil. dol.) 565. National defense purchases as a percent of GNP (Percent) 1983 116.4 116.1 117.0 16,585 16.455 16,758 100,987 100,757 101.896 17,058 16,772 16.804 5,174 5,244 5.222 1,344 1,346 1,342 2,120 2,122 2,127 1.024 1,028 1,030 194.7 e!i 118.2 117.6 118.0 16,826 17.175 17.331 103,198 103,529 105,568 17,529 16,854 17,189 5,276 5,278 5.373 1,345 1,349 1,354 2,123 2,120 2,116 1,029 1,040 1,049 199.3 6.1 July August September 120.4 120.2 121.8 17,321 17,813 17,436 107,018 107,084 107,453 16,975 18,455 17,463 5,665 5,430 5,435 L,361 L,344 1,053 1,052 1,026 200.9 L ,364 2,113 2,115 2,123 6.6 October November December 122.9 124.0 125.7 17,278 17,450 17,837 108,627 111,449 112,754 17,781 17,329 18,726 5,618 5,684 5,733 L,369 1,369 L ,378 2,120 2,126 2,124 1,034 1,040 1,045 207'.2 6\6 January February March 128.3 129.5 130.1 17,861 18,190 18.746 113,575 114,624 120.647 18,448 17,801 17,794 5,682 5,835 5,690 1,382 1.391 1,400 2.130 2,135 2,140 1,042 1,043 1,046 213^4 6*.6 April May June 133.2 133.1 133.5 19,017 19,514 20,035 119,870 120.758 121,672 18,525 18,609 18,953 5,916 5,760 5,920 1,408 1,420 1,433 2.138 2,141 2,143 1,049 1,061 1,071 220.8 6.1 July August September 135.9 136.8 139.5 20,734 21,315 22,141 123,219 125,276 126,496 18,405 19,181 19,469 6,053 6,033 6,081 1.443 1,452 1,463 2,142 2,144 2,138 1,079 1,074 1,043 220.3 6.0 141.1 142.2 144.7 22,551 22,581 22,517 125.340 129,092 129,775 18,687 20.152 19,899 6.323 6.339 6,765 1,473 1,478 1,492 2,138 2,141 2,138 1,058 1,065 1,067 231.6 6.2 145.8 145.9 23,091 23,405 134.455 rl,515 pi,524 2,146 2.147 2,148 1,065 1,069 p i ,072 6.'i OO AOQ 6,380 6,695 r6,718 r233*.6 rl47 8 18,762 20,058 r20,465 1,505 rl32,467 rl31,990 P148.8 (NA) p!32,185 pl9,540 p6,419 (NA) p2,148 (NA) January February March April May June ........ . ,.. . ;. . 1984 October November December ....... ....... 1985 January February March April May June July August September . . . . . . . October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55. MAY 1985 91 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES E I U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS MERCHANDISE TRADE 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery 612. General imports Year and 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products 616. Imports of auto mobiles and parts month (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) (Mil. dol.) 1983 January February March 17,232 16,312 16,690 3,128 2,985 2,811 3,644 3,359 3,499 20,127 18,804 19,528 4,481 3,183 3,603 2,329 3,019 2,676 April May June 16,095 15,655 16,959 2,891 2,715 2,977 3,513 3,433 3,265 19,914 21,446 20,916 ,749 ,432 ,215 2,746 3,819 2,823 July August September . . . 16,486 16,582 17,257 3,072 2,973 3,322 3,655 3,290 3,718 21,828 22,714 22,451 ,622 ,597 ,929 2,936 2,813 2,636 October November . . . December . . . 17,033 17,063 17,298 2,979 3,109 3,175 3,689 3,686 3,683 24,333 23,115 22,976 4,818 4,459 3,997 3,233 3,415 3,801 January February March . . . . . . 17,889 17,208 17,906 3,457 3,198 3,336 4,009 3,848 3,764 26,204 26,420 26,948 4,515 4,660 5,393 3,684 3,751 3,680 April May . . . . . . . June 17,520 17,978 17,705 3,030 3,245 2,715 811 976 746 28,074 26,012 25,276 6,000 5,113 4,694 3,838 3,635 3,683 July August September . . . 19,154 18,123 18,210 3,236 3,022 3,153 790 878 640 31,334 26,866 28,409 4,674 4,021 4,261 3,947 3,773 4,302 October November . . , December . . . 18,411 18,395 19,142 2,799 3,242 3,314 007 905 4,128 26,783 27,331 25,933 4,007 4,637 4,298 3,600 3,817 3,732 19,401 17,853 18,446 2,945 r2,842 2,436 4,247 3,970 4,160 28,297 27,985 28,129 4,005 3,833 3,411 4,033 4,999 4,243 (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 1984 1985 January February March April May June July August September . . . October November . . . December . . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 56. 92 MAY 1985 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued Q GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS) Merchandise, adjusted' Goods and services Year and month 667. Balance (Mil. dol.) 668. Exports (Mil. dol.) 669. Imports (Mil. dol.) 622. Balance (Mil. dol.) 618. Exports (Mil. dol.) Income on investment 620. Imports (Mil. dol.) 651. U.S. investment abroad (Mil. dol.) 652. Foreign investment in the United States (Mil. dol.) 1983 January February March -1,370 81,111 82,481 -9,277 49,246 58,523 17,618 12,380 April May June -7,712 81,355 89,067 -14,870 48,745 63,615 18,973 12,995 July August September -9,703 84,826 94,529 -17,501 50,437 67,938 20,802 13,630 October November December -14,127 84,910 99,037 -19,407 51,829 71,236 19,609 14,490 January February . March -17,522 90,653 108,175 r-25,234 r53,752 r78,986 23,296 15,552 April May June -22,547 88,863 111,410 r-25,399 r54,678 r80,077 20,818 17,363 July August September -30,737 91,054 121,791 r-32,410 r55,559 r87,969 21,658 18,782 p-19,645 p91,783 pill,428 rp-24,392 rp56,354 rp80,746 p21,848 pl7,809 (NA) (NA) (NA) p-28,331 p56,067 p84,398 (NA) (NA) 1984 October November December ....... 1985 January February March April May June !. . j,. . July August September October November December . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 57. balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports). MAY 1985 93 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS Q | Year and month 47. United States, index of industrial production (1967-100) 721.OECD1 European countries, index of industrial production 728. Japan, index of industrial production INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 725. West Germany, index of industrial production 726. France, index of industrial production 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production 727. Italy, index of industrial production 723. Canada, index of indus° trial production (1967-100) (1967 = 100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967 = 100) (1967-100) 1983 January February March 137.4 138.1 140.0 150 150 150 229.5 228.0 232.7 146 148 150 157 155 155 122 122 120 152.0 152.2 149.4 147.7 147.6 148.3 April May June 142.6 144.4 146.4 150 151 153 233.0 235.2 235.9 150 150 156 155 160 157 122 123 120 142.1 144.4 144.4 150.0 151.7 155,0 July August September 149.7 151.8 153.8 153 153 153 236.4 242.3 245.0 150 150 153 159 159 157 124 124 125 153.8 148.9 148.3 156,9 159.1 162.0 October November . , December 155.0 155.3 156.2 153 156 156 244.5 247.7 250.9 154 156 157 155 162 160 125 127 128 150.2 153.3 149.6 162.7 164.1 165.3 January February March 158.5 160.0 160.8 158 158 156 251.4 260.2 256.4 156 159 rl54 162 160 162 128 127 125 152.5 150.4 155.9 167.8 162.1 165.3 April May June 162.1 162.8 164.4 154 158 151 257.7 263.9 265.2 154 156 140 157 162 159 124 123 124 149.8 155.3 156.4 166.2 167.5 168.6 July August September 165.9 166.0 165.0 158 159 159 266.4 268.4 265.2 161 157 159 167 167 162 124 124 1?5 154.5 156.7 158.7 175.0 173.1 170.2 October November December 164.4 164.8 164.8 159 159 158 273.2 274.3 r272.7 161 162 161 163 162 157 125 125 127 154.8 153.0 153.8 171.2 173.8 rl?4 6 January February March rl65.1 rl65.3 rl65.8 rl58 pl61 (NA) 272.0 P274.1 (NA) 162 P161 (NA) 155 pl62 (NA) 128 pl28 (NA) 147.8 P160.Q (NA) TllZ.Z pl72.6 (NA) April May June P165.4 1984 1985 July August September October November December See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on pate 58. ^Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. 94 MAY 1985 ItO OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued Q United States Year and month 320. Index © (1967 = 100) West Germany Japan 320c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 738. Index © (1967 = 100) CONSUMER PRICES 738c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 735.Index © (1967 = 100) United Kingdom France 735c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 736. Index © (1967 = 100) 736c. Change over 6-month spans1 (Ann. rate, percent) 732. Index © (1967-100) 732c. Change over 6-month spans' (Ann. rate, percent) 1983 January February March 293.1 293.2 293.4 1.4 2.3 3.4 306.6 305.5 307.5 0.7 2.1 1.2 201.2 201.3 201.2 1.7 1.9 1.2 390.1 392.9 396.5 11.9 10.8 10.0 523.5 525.8 526.7 3.5 3.2 3.8 April May June 295.5 297.1 298.1 3.6 4.4 5.0 308.6 312.0 309.7 1.1 1.9 1.0 201.7 202.2 202.9 2.4 3.6 4.1 401.8 404.5 406.9 9.8 9.9 10.3 534.1 536.4 537.7 5,0 5.4 6.1 July August September 299.3 300.3 301.8 4.2 4.1 4.2 308.3 307.4 311.4 2.0 1.6 2.3 203.6 204.3 204.9 3.6 3.2 3.8 410.4 412.8 416.0 9.1 8.9 8.6 540.6 543.0 545.4 6.5 6.3 6.6 October November December 302.6 303.1 303.5 4.7 4.8 4.6 314.2 312.2 311.4 2.6 4.0 3.8 204.9 205.2 205.7 3.0 2.2 2.2 419.2 420.9 422.4 8.3 8.0 7.1 547.3 549.2 550.7 5.3 4.8 4 4 305.2 306.6 307.3 4.8 4.5 4.3 312.3 314.2 315.1 2.7 2.4 1.5 206.6 207.1 207.3 2.6 2.5 1.9 425.4 428.0 431.0 6.6 6.6 6.9 550.4 552.6 554.4 4.1 4.0 3.7 April May June 308.8 309.7 310.7 3.6 3.7 3.8 315.9 318.2 315.6 2.5 -0.1 0.8 207.7 207.8 208 6 1.6 1.3 0 9 433.6 436.2 438 4 6.8 7.0 7 2 561.8 563.9 565 3 3.6 5.1 5 1 July August September 311.7 313.0 314.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 316.2 313.4 318.5 1.6 1.9 3.8 208.2 207.8 208.0 1.6 1.7 2.1 441.5 443.7 445.9 7.7 7.4 6.8 564.7 570.0 571.1 5.7 5.9 5.4 October November December 315.3 315.3 315.5 3.4 3.3 3.5 321.0 319.0 319.6 3.2 3.0 2.5 209.2 209.6 209.8 2.7 3.4 4.3 449.0 450.3 451.2 6.4 5.9 5.8 574.6 576.4 575.9 6.5 5.8 7.1 January February March . . 316.1 317.4 318 8 3.7 321.3 318.7 320.2 (NA) 211.0 211.9 212.6 (NA) 453.5 455.8 459.0 (NA) 578.0 582.7 588.1 8.2 April May June 320.1 1984 January February March ,. 1985 (NA) (NA) (NA) 600.6 July August September October November December ..,..,. ....... See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. MAY 1985 95 OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES F I INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued CONSUMER PRICES—Continued 737. Index © 733c. Change over 6-month spans' 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks @ 748. Japan, index of stock prices @ 745. West Germany, index of stock prices @ 746. France, index of stock prices @ 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices @ 747. Italy, index of stock prices © 743. Canada, index of stock prices © (Ann. rate, percent) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967-100) Canada Italy Year and month STOCK PRICES 737c. Change over 6-month spans' 733. Index © (1967-100) (Ann. rate, percent) January February March 602.7 610.5 616.0 14.3 14.2 13.8 312.5 313.9 317.1 4.2 3.4 4.2 156.9 159.7 165.2 533.3 530.8 544.2 126.0 131.9 143.9 159.1 165.0 179.1 371.9 381.6 April May June 622.2 628.2 632.2 14.0 13.2 12.7 317.1 317.9 321.5 5.2 5.9 4.7 171.6 178.5 181.0 559.7 573.4 583.3 157.0 158.6 159.5 July August September , . . 638.5 641.1 649.4 12.4 11.8 11.7 322. 324. 324. 5.6 5.0 4.9 181.6 176.7 181.8 598, 606, 619.7 October November . . . December . , , 660.4 667.0 670.3 11.1 11.5 11.5 326, 326. 327.5 5.4 5.1 4.6 182.4 179.7 178.8 January February March 678.3 685.8 690.6 11.1 10,9 10.9 329. 331 331,9 4.3 4.7 3.4 April May June 695.4 699.6 703.8 10.0 9.4 8.1 332. 333. 334. July August September . . , 705.9 708.0 713.0 6.8 6.4 6.8 October November . . . December . . . 720.1 724.4 729.5 January February March 736.8 744.2 749.4 April May "June 756.1 (1967-100) 1983 388.3 95,5 109.1 118.7 210,0 216.6 219.5 188.7 200.4 196.8 410.4 403.7 426.1 115.8 111.6 110.3 240.0 251.8 260.2 169.0 166.9 164.7 206,1 220.2 224.9 418.9 431.8 422.6 112.9 120.5 118.4 264.3 267.3 272.0 621.0 621.5 638.6 173.4 176.7 179,2 225.3 239.5 247.6 411.2 424.1 432.6 111.6 112.7 112.8 273.6 268.6 181.0 171.1 171.3 687.6 699,6 736.1 185.3 182.3 178.4 275.9 263, 261. 457.2 457.2 485.3 125.3 128.7 128.5 259,5 259.5 260.0 3.1 2.3 3.0 171.4 170.3 166.6 776.0 744.6 711.2 177.9 178.0 175.8 285.4 277.1 272.3 495.0 489.6 468.7 124.9 122.5 119.6 252.0 p245.6 p242.6 336.6 336.6 336.9 2.5 3.4 4.2 164.3 178.9 180.7 701.3 728.8 738.6 167.2 172.0 178.3 256, 274 287.0 447.5 478.6 497.0 121.4 128,7 127.6 p234.0 P252.5 P256.6 7.2 7.7 8.9 337.5 339.7 339.9 4.3 5.2 4.4 179.3 180.9 178.9 760.5 774.7 804.7 185.2 185.1 187.4 287.9 286.0 285.2 503.7 525.9 551.2 127.4 130,5 130.5 P257.1 p259.2 P256.0 10.7 341.3 343.5 344.3 5.3 186.7 196.8 195.2 839.5 851.9 900.4 195.1 202.0 213.4 294.3 307.9 317.8 578.1 585.1 592.3 147,2 164.1 164,4 P264.7 p281.5 P282.5 196.5 P199.1 880.3 P886.6 212.5 P218.8 rp326.5 P330.5 rp592.6 P607.1 rpl62.6 pl76,B rp284.5 P287.0 1984 1985 345.7 July . . . . . . . August September , . . October November . . . December , . . See note on page 80. Graphs of these series are shown on page 59. Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month. 96 MAY 1985 APPENDIXES B. Current Adjustment Factors Series July 5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance 107.0 1 13. New business incorporations 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations 2 33, Net change in mortgage debt 13 Aug. 86.8 99.9 103.1 1984 Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec 81.9 91.4 102.5 124.6 90.2 105.0 96.9 104.7 607 99.8 99.6 100.0 100.3 100.4 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred1 88.5 85.7 120.7 116.5 104.8 101.8 119.0 525. Defense Department prime contract awards 78.5 77.8 18.9.9 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding 97.1 94.0 570. Employment, defense products industries . 99.9 99.4 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current.dollars\ 580. Defense Department net outlays 1 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products 1 616. Imports of automobiles and parts 1 .. . 877 97.7 80.5 100.1 99.2 99.1 1985 Mar. Apr. 90.3 91.3 103.1 92.7 255 -1229 100.9 100.2 90.9 105.5 100.7 103.3 87.5 105.3 106.0 99.1 608 1003 99.9 100.0 100.3 100.2 446 96.2 104.1 98.9 87.8 80.9 96.6 114.5 94.3 86.4 84.9 103.2 103.1 103.7 101.4 98.9 100.0 100.0 100.2 100.4 100.2 100.0 100.0 99.8 99.4 101.5 94.3 100.1 83.1 85.6 92.5 102.7 96.1 101.5 105.3 95,9 96.6 93.8 90.7 110.3 99.9 109.6 113.9 101.7 119.5 103.4 95.5 99.2 91.9 86.0 90.2 93.2 109.4 84.1 106.1 96.2 90.4 85.2 101.0 June 108.. 8 -2514 -1691 99.8 May 83.1 95.7 -612 1432 Feb. 145.7 101.0 95.7 100.0 563 92,7 Jan. 99.7 100.1 95.8 102.8 100.0 104.3 98.3 102.2 108.8 107.6 106.7 105.2 115.0 103.0 100.9 94.8 100.5 103.8 100.3 98.1 102.8 105.1 84.3 98.1 107.2 118.4 104.3 NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis rather than by the source agency. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST whenever they are available. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, THE X-ll VARIANT OF THE CENSUS METHOD II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM. l Factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Quarterly series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter. 3 These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. These factors are computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program. ''These factors apply to only the loans portion of this series. 97 C. Historical Data for Selected Series Year 61. NQNFARM IQ II Q III Q IV Q E X P E N D I T U R E S FOR NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT BY U . S . BUSINESS (ANNUAL R A T E , B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS) 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1 956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 196 2 196 3 1964 S965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1 9 70 1 9 71 .19 72 1 9 73 1974 1975 1 9 76 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 . . • , 25.10 29.21 29.41 29.51 28.06 36.11 40.62 36.36 34.11 39.22 37.57 40.03 40,87 49.02 55.57 66.42 72.37 76.27 82 . 0 4 90 . 3 0 90.59 98.97 113.09 130.12 144.12 150.18 176.64 201.56 240.16 278,51 302.86 322.72 289.68 337.48 26,88 28.54 30.19 29.16 29.57 37.63 41 , 3 7 33.25 35.38 40.63 37.80 40 . 75 42.66 50.37 58.34 69.82 72,38 74.73 84.21 92 . 3 7 92.90 100.86 118.57 138.81 141.56 154.60 181 . 7 4 214.10 250.08 282 . 0 9 311 .92 316.33 294.76 348.34 27.57 26.91 30.26 28.67 32.03 38.48 41 , 0 7 32.71 36.94 38.94 38.43 41 . 5 1 44.81 52.00 60,67 71 . 7 2 72.60 76.02 87.91 9 3 . 72 92.75 103.27 122.69 143.00 141.04 161 . 2 0 190.46 220,53 259.76 284.28 323.71 305.39 309-25 361 . 1 2 27.69 27.97 29.98 28.08 34.08 39.40 3 9 . H 33.03 37.10 38.97 39.54 41 . 1 5 46.34 53,67 63.52 73.63 73,63 78.63 88,80 91.27 95.41 110.50 125.77 146.79 142.93 16 7 , 7 6 190.46 234.84 269.80 286.38 322.38 297.87 325-45 367.21 Annual Year 107. II Q IQ RATIO, GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (RATIO) AVERAGE 26.81 28.16 29.96 28.86 30,94 3 7.90 40,54 33.84 35.88 39.44 38.34 40.86 43.6? 51 .26 59.52 70.40 72.75 76.42 85.74 91 .91 92.91 103.40 120.03 139.67 142.42 158.44 184.82 217.76 254.96 2 82.80 315.22 310.58 304.78 353.54 2.784 2.816 2.919 2.857 2.959 3.097 3.270 3.265 3.400 3.598 3.561 3.770 3.875 4.016 4.113 4.309 4.461 4.503 4.574 4.682 4.780 4.867 5.041 5.170 5.313 5.681 5.817 5,983 6.399 6.537 6.844 6.756 6.476 6.650 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 19 70 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1 976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1 981 1982 1983 1984 1985 970A. DIFFUSION IIIQ 2.846 2.812 2 . 9 1 5 2.856 3.053 3 . 1 6 8 3.336 3.320 3.432 3.577 3.650 3.849 3.928 4.033 4.208 4.402 4.442 4.568 4.685 4.734 4.764 4.912 5.131 5.313 5.479 5.719 5.988 6 . 2 1 5 6.398 6.507 6.955 6.727 6.462 6.728 FOR 2.831 2.882 2.870 2.894 3.095 3.217 3.316 3.37? 3.503 3.55? 3.716 3,862 3.961 4.020 4.256 4.474 4.467 4.552 4.681 4.676 4.804 4.942 5.215 5.330 5.585 5.751 5.967 6.325 6.454 6.564 6.910 6.525 6.523 6.791 970B. 38 S2 34 32 77 70 SO 76 56 63 72 72 79 84 80 64 68 68 52 64 78 77 73 59 74 72 78 71 56 60 50 71 76 DIFFUSION INDEX 52 64 51 63 79 68 47 62 72 52 70 69 70 78 84 79 70 72 65 52 68 82 76 64 65 76 78 78 74 56 59 53 74 76 OF E X P E N D . 40 68 51 70 76 62 37 ?4 72 48 75 66 76 79 82 68 70 70 60 62 76 78 76 52 76 72 74 80 63 60 49 58 82 50 58 52 76 71 61 44 80 62 54 74 68 79 81 83 66 72 76 55 62 77 80 76 52 77 76 78 74 54 64 48 66 81 50 60 52 65 76 65 66 70 52 70 69 74 79 83 73 69 72 62 5? 71 80 76 60 69 74 76 78 66 59 54 57 77 FOR NEW PLANT AND AVERAGE 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1 9 70 1971 1972 1 9 73 1 9 74 1975 1 9 76 1977 1978..... 1979..... 1980.. . . . 1981 . . . . . 1982... .. 1983.,. . . 1984 1985 60.0 57.1 66.7 57,1 47.6 85.7 57.1 38.1 85.7 81 . 0 52.4 57.1 57,1 57.1 52.4 52.4 47.6 66.7 90.5 5?.l 38.1 76.2 81.0 76.2 19.0 66,7 66.7 81 . 0 50.0 66.7 57.1 38.1 52.4 81 , 0 80.0 52.4 42.9 42.9 85.7 90.5 76.2 19.0 85.7 66.7 76.2 81 . 0 66.7 66.7 81.0 66.7 42.9 57.1 90.5 5 2.4 76.2 78.6 85.7 85.7 23.8 76.2 71.4 76.2 52.4 38,1 47.6 28.6 61,9 50.0 4 0 . () 33. J 52. * 33. 81 .<) 76. I 47. i 66. 7 90. » 42 , ) 59. ) 61 , ) 71 . • 42. i 47. 57. 47.( 57.1 66. 1 52. ^ 61 . 81 . ( 73. J 5 9.. 47. t 69.C 71 ,i* 76,: 81.C 33 . . 52 . ' 3 3 . . 90.^ 76,3 80 . 0 85.7 28.6 54.8 81 . 0 61 . 9 38.1 64.3 61 . 9 52.4 76.2 50.0 59.5 66.7 76.2 54.8 52-4 71 . 4 38.1 45.2 71 . 4 90 . 5 76.2 47.6 59.5 66.7 71.4 76 . 2 54 . 8 38.1 52.4 47.6 90,5 66.7 65.0 57,1 47.6 48-2 73.8 78.6 54.8 47.0 81 . 0 60.8 66.1 62.5 63.7 58.4 64.3 57.8 47.6 63,1 71 . 4 51.8 61 -9 81,6 79.2 67.2 37.5 69.6 70.2 77.4 59.6 44.0 52-4 36.9 73.8 68.5 AVERAGE 76.2 61.9 83.3 40-5 54.8 90.5 52.4 14.3 81.0 78.6 19.0 52.4 33.3 95.2 61.9 88.1 52.4 61.9 71.4 57.1 35.7 71.4 85.7 66.7 35.7 71.4 66.7 81.0 76.2 76.2 76.2 42.9 38.1 81.0 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1 976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1 981 1982 1983 1 984 1985 9 7 0 C . DIFFUSION EQUIP,—EARLY PROJ . 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1 957 1 958 1959 1 960 1961 196 2 1963 1964 196 5 1966 196 7 196 8 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 19 76 1977 • \ \ \ 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1 983 1984 1985 98 3 90 . 5 2 3 . 8 6 1 . 9 3 3 . 3 76.2 9 0 . 5 54.8 4 . 8 78.6 71.4 5 4 . 8 71.4 83.3 69.0 85.7 9 0 . 5 4 0 . 5 38.1 9 0 . 5 4 2 . 9 5 2 . 4 69,0 81 . 0 78.6 28.6 76.2 83.3 95.2 76,2 5 4 . 8 6 4 . 3 1 6 . 7 52.4 71.4 6 6 . 7 19,0 54.8 3 5 . 7 88.1 71.4 52.4 3 1 . 0 8 5 . 7 3 8 . 1 4 0 . 5 6 6 . 7 76.2 81.0 8 3 . 3 71.4 3 5 . 7 6 1 . 9 6 4 . 3 4 7 . 6 4 5 . 2 6 6 . 7 76.2 6 6 . 7 38.1 81,0 9 0 . 5 78.6 76.2 57.1 71 . 4 19.0 81.0 81 . 0 4 7 , 6 61 , 9 38.1 4 5 . 2 90.5 5 4 . 8 2 3 . 8 57.1 71.4 3 3 . 3 73.8 4 2 . 9 6 6 . 7 81.0 85.7 71.4 61 . 9 69.0 54.8 2 8 , 6 6 1 . 9 9 0 . 5 6 6 . 7 71.4 § 4 . 8 71.4 57.1 92.9 71 . 4 6 1 . 9 3 5 . 7 28.6 97.6 6 1 . 9 INDEX OF EXPEND. FOR NEW PLANT AND (PERCENT RISING OVER 1-Q SPANS) 20.0 80.0 66.7 33.3 52.4 57.1 57.1 52.4 57.1 69.0 57.1 52.4 47.6 66.7 66.7 52.4 52-4 66.7 66.7 64.3 50.0 76.2 71.4 71.4 61.9 66.7 61.9 71 . 4 52.4 76.2 61.9 47.6 42.9 57.1 NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain revisions beginning with 1947. 'This series contains revisions beginning with 1973. 'This series is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Brtdstreet, Inc. This series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user. 3 This series contains revisions beginning with 1948. J.822 1.826 '.90 8 ,.864 ,02? .154 J.302 .305 J.451 . 5 82 ,634 .821 ,915 i• . 0 2 8 i.186 ii . 3 7 8 i^ .453 i• .34 7 ii . 6 4 0 • .702 • .779 It . 9 0 8 >.116 $.268 ».43S .70 8 .920 .171 .402 ,555 >.8?6 .698 .482 .720 NEW PLANT AND AVERAGE 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958..... 1959..... 1960. . . . . 1961 . . . . . 1962..... 1963..=.. 1964..... 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 19 70 1971 1972 1973..... 1974...,. 1975...,. 1976 197?.,.,, 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Annual HI1 AVERAGE 2.825 2,795 2.927 2.848 3.002 3.132 3.286 3.257 3.470 3.598 3.611 3.802 3.896 4.043 4 . 1 6 7 4.328 4.443 4.564 4 . 6 1 8 4 . 7 1 5 4.768 4.911 5.076 5.258 S.363 5.679 5.906 6.160 6.358 6.611 6.796 6.785 6.469 6.712 INDEX OF EXPEND. IV Q TO MONEY SUPPLY 60.0 4 2 . 9 5 7 . 1 4 2 . 9 71 . 4 85.7 8 5 . 7 28.6 6 1 . 9 90.5 52.4 6 1 . 9 6 1 . 9 8 5 . 7 71,4 81.0 52.4 5 2 . 4 6 6 . 7 76.2 73.8 5 2 . 4 71.4 76.2 3 8 . 1 6 1 . 9 6 6 . 7 76.2 57.1 6 6 . 7 76.2 6 1 . 9 4 7 . 6 71.4 80.0 50.0 57.1 3 8 . 1 81.0 81.0 4 7 . 6 31 . 0 6 6 . 7 4 2 . 9 52.4 6 1 . 9 6 1 . 9 4 7 . 6 57.1 81.0 71.4 6 1 . 9 6 1 . 9 6 6 . 7 6 6 . 7 3 3 . 3 6 1 . 9 81.0 57.1 6 9 . 0 §7.1 81.0 6 6 . 7 81 . 0 8 5 . 7 76.2 71.4 8 5 . 7 80.0 73.8 4 2 . 9 47,6 81.0 6 1 . 9 52.4 6 6 . 7 61 . 9 6 1 . 9 5 4 . 8 S9.5 6 6 . 7 76.2 71.4 57.1 4 7 , 6 52.4 52.4 6 6 . ? 3 3 . 3 3 8 , 1 6 1 . 9 6 1 . 9 52.4 6 6 . 7 ?6.2 76.2 71.4 6 6 . 7 71.4 6 6 . 7 6 6 - 7 57.1 70.2 41.6 59.§ 38.7 77.4 76.8 45.8 26.8 79.2 55.4 47.0 58.4 64.9 81.6 79,2 80.4 47.6 57.7 70.2 44.0 48.8 74.4 77.4 70.8 39.3 75 .0 74.4 86.9 75.0 62,5 61.9 26.8 67.3 73.8 AVERAGE 60.0 61.7 56.0 40. 5 71,4 71.4 60.7 44.7 61 . 9 66.1 54.2 58,9 59.5 69,0 66.6 67,9 56.0 58.4 61.9 68.5 56.0 §0.0 66.6 72.6 S2.4 66.1 65.S 76.2 61 . 9 72.6 73,8 63.1 57.2 67.8 (MAY 198S) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. 72. 1951 . . . 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 196 4 . . . 196 5 . . . 1966... 1967... 196 8 . . . 1969... 1970... 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981 . . . 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 16 ,503 19,632 21 ,227 21,000 20,529 24,515 28,695 29,171 28,567 31,433 32,999 33,582 36,039 38,931 43,562 53,195 61 ,876 67,254 77,048 88,521 90,944 84,478 94,279 113,967 140,652 t25,349 124,450 135,158 155,975 193,068 513,016 254,693 268,553 267,992 17,116 19,641 21,277 21,064 20,692 24,686 28,720 28,835 28,583 31 ,870 32,966 33,712 36,126 39,195 44,618 54,071 62 ,404 67,415 77,843 90,023 91 ,625 85,260 98,034 116,322 139,605 125,758 125,824 135,658 158,341 197,288 213,391 259,934 268,394 272,651 Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Oct. Sept. Nov. Dec. IQ II Q COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS OUTSTANDING IN CURRENT DOLLARS (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 17,579 19,761 21,430 21 ,036 20,916 25,414 29,182 28, 728 28,820 32,093 33,111 33,907 36,251 39,201 45,563 54,805 63,100 67,732 79,091 91,243 91 ,904 86,195 100,124 117,738 138,152 123,490 126,179 138,536 160,335 200 ,406 211,676 261 ,328 269,309 281 ,834 18,079 19,742 21 ,675 20,96 7 21,049 25 ,932 29,503 28,554 29,092 3 2 , 2 93 33,079 34,121 36,458 39,554 46,203 55,377 63,598 68,877 81,132 91 ,333 90,891 87,342 101 , 7 6 8 122,857 136,564 120,789 126,925 4 0 , 6 20 165,793 200,583 215,581 266,688 265,470 289,095 18,453 19,809 21 ,816 20,811 21 ,416 26,448 2 9,6 50 28,168 29,573 32,591 33,020 34,269 36,626 39,882 47,209 56,139 63,998 69,067 8 2 , 2 77 91 ,864 91 ,662 87,906 103,074 125,111 133,750 121 ,069 127,740 143 ,029 168,229 198,756 221 ,279 271 ,022 261 ,638 295,920 18,646 19,969 21,747 20,650 21 ,796 26,799 30,033 28,079 30,042 33,011 32,955 34,509 36,740 40,137 47,718 57,228 64,682 69,598 83,502 92,444 90 ,706 88,268 105,166 126,537 131 ,397 122,018 128,990 145,547 171 ,623 202,454 225,515 272,899 261 ,890 303,692 18,757 20,141 21 , 7 7 8 20,651 22,244 27 ,145 30,245 28,039 30,026 32,993 33,012 34,740 36,872 40,428 48,072 58,223 65,083 70,294 83,909 92,433 89,951 88,429 106,581 130,706 130,713 121 ,328 128,860 146 ,93 7 175,320 200,910 229,664 273,160 261 ,618 306,883 18,865 20,190 21 ,934 1 9,80 4 22,664 27 ,418 30,285 27 ,941 30,456 32,840 33,131 35,038 37,047 40,83 9 49 ,139 59,360 64,862 71 ,359 85,141 93,072 91 ,62 7 88,800 108,505 133,304 129,579 121 ,083 130,214 147 ,792 179,017 201 ,732 234,814 273,540 262,789 308,206 18,968 20,381 21 ,819 19,753 22,977 27,778 30,374 28,122 30 ,646 32,956 33,214 35,318 37,341 41 ,418 50 ,141 59,950 65,155 72,318 86,404 93,43 5 93 ,43 7 88,593 108,458 137,429 12 8,146 120,710 130,848 148,769 183 ,790 203,417 238,847 274,885 262,747 311 ,769 20,348 20,899 19,901 24,191 24,371 24,083 26,924 27,006 26,787 26,437 26,402 26,249 25,970 26,358 25,835 30,445 31 ,259 30,356 34,056 34,648 34,070 33,588 33,254 34,023 33,170 33,403 33,151 37,030 37,103 36,523 38,112 38,280 38,150 39,072 39,298 38,873 42,082 42,334 41,874 45,542 45,606 45,008 51,454 52,479 50,362 59,903 60,721 59,357 68,832 69,859 68,150 72,911 73,174 73,346 82,028 82 ,914 81 ,559 90,769 91 ,875 89,515 90,011 90,009 90,091 86,558 87,419 86,555 91 ,857 60 ,21 9 92,051 92,687 92,634 92,581 97,083 96,542 9 7,540 83,505 81 ,836 83,233 78,788 78,275 78,816 79,940 81 ,015 80,451 84,134 84,254 34,129 90,292 91 ,135 90,219 88,361 86,859 89,091 1 0 1 , 6 7 4 1 0 3 , 6 8 3 104 ,448 106,653 106,253 106,699 103,632 1 0 5 , 1 0 8 107,941 21 ,548 22 ,080 22,456 24,893 24,594 24,478 27,518 27 ,465 2 7 , 5 3 0 26 ,023 26,013 26,173 27,355 27,025 26,418 32,487 32,061 31,644 35,431 35,114 34,895 32,667 32,688 33,178 34,775 34,190 33,633 3 7 , 726 3 8 , 3 0 8 37,334 38,631 38,512 38,435 40,249 39,918 39,696 42,797 42 ,684 4 2 , 7 1 8 46,813 46,515 46,075 54,150 53,971 53,017 61 ,294 62 ,128 6 3 , 2 5 8 71 ,243 70,799 70,672 74,840 74,352 74,406 86,412 85,520 85,004 92,6 96 92,384 91,848 87,744 89,202 88,811 88,534 88,615 88,492 92,089 92,195 92,854 96,815 96,165 95,832 94 ,508 91 , 9 8 8 90,121 79,336 79,286 79,362 78,990 7 7,82 0 7 7 , 9 3 8 81 ,918 8 2 , 6 9 7 31 ,096 87,518 86,360 85,859 89,610 90,885 90 ,787 89,623 87,528 91 , 1 1 7 106,590 1 0 8 , 1 0 6 1 0 8 , 5 9 5 105,178 103,373 103,147 110,595 113,163 116,179 23 ,176 22 ,738 23 ,020 25,270 24,933 24,973 27 ,529 27,236 27,222 24,893 24,855 25,918 28,489 28,329 27,918 33,324 33,150 32,993 35,651 35,456 35,454 32,758 32,547 32,620 35,474 35,477 34,844 38,340 38,206 38,191 38,738 38,642 38,551 40,729 40,711 40,416 43 ,497 43,100 42,789 48,004 47,571 47,033 56 ,830 55,763 54,552 64 ,859 6 5 , 5 1 4 63,909 71 ,605 71 ,508 71 ,827 77,580 76,795 75 ,442 89,249 88,027 86,725 93,195 93,307 92,271 90,298 88,185 86,825 87,803 88,183 87,989 92,462 90 ,951 94,487 97,884 94,811 96,249 85,889 87,317 88,619 77, 777 78,472 78,377 79,785 79,690 78,765 83,43 7 83,593 83,062 90 ,448 89,464 88,145 88,212 87,748 88,507 96,193 94,341 9 2 , 3 46 108,311 1 0 8 , 5 0 5 1 0 9 , 3 8 5 1 0 2 , 7 5 6 102,732 102,515 117,176 118,132 120,050 19,194 21 ,031 21 ,451 19,955 23,771 28,199 29,573 28,342 31 ,076 33,118 33,280 35,939 38,579 42,068 51 ,650 61 ,043 66,161 74,374 88,070 91 ,082 92,301 91 ,408 110 ,877 139, 734 126 ,131 123,317 133,272 152 ,486 183 ,394 209,253 244,824 270,235 263,537 320,975 19,411 21 ,133 21 ,058 20,314 24,110 28,395 29,517 28,496 31 ,288 33,018 33,429 3 5,9 86 39,045 42,73 7 52,300 61,332 67,068 75,150 89,059 91 ,069 91 ,788 92,111 111 ,764 139,873 126,245 124,225 134,372 152,870 186,443 211 ,014 247,853 264,699 267,979 321 ,650 17,066 19,678 21 ,311 21 ,033 20,712 24,872 28,866 28,911 28,657 31,799 33,025 33,734 36,139 39,109 44,581 54,024 62,460 ,467 ,994 ,929 ,491 ,311 ,479 ,009 139,470 124,866 125,484 136,451 158,217 196,921 212,694 258,652 268,752 274,159 18,393 19,840 21,746 20,80 9 21,420 26,393 29,729 28,267 2 9,56 9 32,632 33,018 34,300 36,608 39,858 47,043 56,248 64,093 69,181 82,304 91,880 91 ,086 87,839 103,336 124,835 133,904 121 ,292 127,885 143,065 168,548 200,598 220,792 270,203 262,999 296,236 23 ,320 25,742 27,197 23,421 26 ,360 27,070 29,079 33,420 35,265 32,866 36 ,011 38,243 38,739 41 ,353 43,945 48,183 57,520 66,685 72,374 78,474 89,909 91 ,540 89,418 89,784 94,132 96,817 84,553 78,258 80,203 83,426 89,427 8 7 , 7 90 97,095 109,200 101 ,985 121 ,687 29,633 33,741 34,711 32,973 36,245 3 8,3 84 38,815 41 ,654 44,713 48,757 58,255 67,357 72,946 79,528 90,053 90,952 89,160 90 ,2 3 5 94,848 96,836 84,312 79,151 80 ,52 7 84,200 88,340 89,310 98,680 107,194 102,743 123 ,215 23,686 26,741 26 ,501 25,705 30,055 33 ,844 34,514 33 ,152 36,492 38,316 38,891 41 ,866 45,482 49,532 58,630 67,679 73,432 80,049 90,680 90,875 87,836 89,255 93 ,840 97,134 84,163 79,074 80,752 83 ,719 88,909 89,489 99,780 104,831 104,272 123,664 20,383 24,215 26,906 26,363 26,054 30,687 34,258 33,622 33,241 36,885 38,181 39,081 42,097 45,385 51 ,432 59,994 68,947 73 ,144 82,167 90,720 90 ,037 86,844 91 ,376 92,634 97,055 82,858 78,626 80,469 84,172 90 ,549 88,104 103,268 106,535 105 ,560 22,028 24,655 27,504 26 ,070 26,933 32,064 35,147 32,844 34,199 37,789 38,526 39,954 42,733 46,46 8 53,713 62,227 70,90 5 74,533 85,645 92,309 88,586 88,547 92,379 96,271 92,206 79,328 78,249 81 ,904 86,579 90 ,427 89,423 107 , 764 103,899 113,312 NOTE: 6 .20 2.65 1.13 - 0 .70 2.58 4.86 3.60 -4.15 0.85 1.74 •-0 .23 1 .84 0 .64 -1 .37 9.90 10 . 74 6.53 2.23 22.78 ^6.46 + 1 .50 26 .44 9.35 -10.75 2.70 9.43 43.40 79.50 24.02 82.08 46 .25 0.16 7.36 0.11 0.60 0.77 1.96 2.05 0.30 -4.03 0.19 5.24 -0.40 1 .56 1 .04 3.17 12.67 10.51 6.34 1 .93 9.54 18.02 8.17 9.38 45.06 28.26 -12.56 4.91 16.49 6.00 28.39 50.64 4.50 62.89 -1.91 55.91 5.56 1 .44 1 .84 -0.34 2.69 8.74 5.54 -1.28 2 .84 2.68 1.74 2.34 1.50 0.07 11 .34 8.81 8.35 3 .80 14.98 14.64 3.35 11.22 25.08 16.99 -17.44 -27.22 4.26 34.54 23.93 37.42 -20.58 16.73 10.98 110.20 6.00 -0.23 2.94 -0.83 1.60 6.22 3.85 -2.09 3.26 2.40 -0.38 2.57 2.48 4.24 7.68 6.86 5.98 13.74 24.49 1 .08 -12.16 13.76 19.73 61.43 -19.06 -32.41 8.95 25.01 65 .50 2.12 46.86 64.32 -46.07 87.13 4.49 0.80 .69 .87 .40 .19 .76 .63 . 77 3.58 -0.71 1 .78 2.02 3.94 12.07 9.14 4.80 2.28 13 . 74 6.37 9.25 6.77 15.67 27.05 -33.77 3.36 9.78 28.91 29.23 -21 .92 68.38 52.01 -45.98 81.90 2.32 1.92 -0.83 -1.93 4.56 4.21 4.60 - 1 .07 5.63 5.04 -0.78 2.88 1 .37 3.06 6.11 13.07 8.21 6.37 14 . 70 6.96 -11 .47 4.34 25.10 17.11 -28.24 11 .39 15 .00 30.22 40 .73 44.38 50.83 22.52 3.02 93.26 These series contain revisions beginning with 1982. 1.33 2 .06 0.37 0.01 5.38 4.15 2.54 -0.48 -0.19 -0.22 0.68 2.77 1 .58 3.49 4.25 11 .94 4.81 8.35 4 .88 -0.13 -9.06 1 .93 16.98 50.03 -8.21 -8.28 -1 .56 16.68 44.36 -18.53 49.79 3.13 -3.26 38.29 1.30 0,59 1.87 -10 .16 5.04 3.28 0.48 -1.18 5.16 -1.84 1,43 3.58 2.10 4.93 12.80 13.64 -2.65 12,78 14.78 7.67 20.11 4.45 23.09 31 .18 -13.61 -2.94 X 16.25 10 .26 44.36 9.86 61.80 4.56 14.05 15.88 2.60 1 .22 -4.72 .31 -.07 .35 .67 ,85 .54 .20 .79 .56 5.59 8.03 7,80 3.47 10.88 9.31 11 .87 -0.16 -6.16 8.44 10.64 1 .67 1 .37 10.90 13.20 4.61 36.59 21.13 36.35 -66.43 53.30 8.10 6.37 1.40 1.19 -0.09 2.41 5.22 3.15 -3.15 1.29 3.22 0.37 1 .91 1 .06 0.62 11 .30 10.02 7.07 2.65 15.77 8.73 3 .34 4.27 0.83 1.27 -1.54 3.52 5.54 3.40 -2.60 4.89 3,67 -0.62 2.41 1 .96 3.75 8.62 9.69 6.33 7.46 17 .64 4.80 -4.79 8.29 20.17 35.20 -27.02 -5.89 11.24 28.05 45.15 8.19 55.36 46.28 -29.68 87.43 18,863 20,237 21,844 20,069 22,628 27,447 30,301 28,034 30,376 32,930 33,119 35,032 37,087 40,895 49,117 59,178 65,033 71,324 85,151 92,980 91 ,672 88,607 107,848 133,813 129,479 121 ,040 129,974 147 ,833 179,376 202,020 234,442 273,862 262,385 308,953 19,239 20,938 21 ,383 19,996 23,767 28,151 2 9,6 86 28,351 31 ,093 33,044 33,308 35,853 36,482 42,143 51 ,587 60,984 66,291 74,226 88,162 91 ,277 92,185 91 ,340 110,768 139,320 126,458 123,104 133 ,273 151 ,952 184,745 208,331 244,685 269,930 264,505 319,589 1 8 , 3 90 20,173 21 ,571 20,477 22,132 26,716 29,646 28,391 29,924 32,601 33,118 34,730 37,079 40,501 48,082 57,608 64,469 70,549 83,403 91 , 5 1 7 91 , 6 0 8 88 ,274 104,858 128,494 132 ,328 122,576 129,154 144,825 172,722 201 , 96 7 228,153 26 8,162 264,660 299,734 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 1 1 2 . NET CHANGE IN BUSINESS LOANS (ANNUAL RATE, BILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1951 . . . 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... I960... 1961 . . . 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 196 9 . . . 19 70 . . . 1971 . . . 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977.. . 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... Annual AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 19,111 20,650 21 ,6 40 19,718 23,421 27,858 29,969 28,215 30,915 32,996 33,215 35,635 3 7,821 41 ,625 50,812 60,578 65 ,644 73,153 87,358 91 ,6 80 92,465 90,502 109,664 138,352 126,999 121 ,770 132 ,174 150,501 184,399 204,727 241,377 274,856 261 ,999 3X6,143 101. COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL LOANS OUTSTANDING IN 1972 DOLLARS (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 1951 . . . 1952.. . 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963.. . 1964... 1965... 1966... 196 7 . . . 1968... 1969... 1970... 1971 . . . 19 7 2 . . . 19 7 3 . . . 1974... 1975... 19 7 6 . . . 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980.. . 1981... 1982 . . . 1983... 1984... 1985... IV Q 22,978 25,059 27,329 25,222 28,245 33,156 35,520 32,642 35,265 38,246 38,644 40,619 43,129 47,536 55,715 64,761 71 ,647 76,606 88,000 92,924 88,436 87,992 92,633 96,315 87,275 78,209 79,413 83,364 89,352 88,156 94,293 108, 734 102,668 118,453 23,476 26,281 26,923 25,256 29,589 33,668 34,830 32,997 36,249 38,314 38,815 41 ,624 44,713 48,824 58,135 67,240 72,917 79,350 90 ,214 91 ,122 88,805 89,758 94,273 96,929 84,343 78,828 80,494 83,782 88,892 88,863 98,518 107,075 103,000 122,855 22,216 25,052 27,165 25 ,728 27,705 32,394 34,939 33,026 34,739 3 7,80 9 38,541 40,320 43,168 47,053 54,749 63,555 71,104 7 5,90 8 86,507 91 ,769 88,966 88,285 92 ,665 95,537 90,220 79,806 79,196 82 ,380 87,249 89,499 92,584 106,710 104,026 115,045 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 1 .24 2.29 -1.38 -0.61 3.76 4.32 1.07 2.17 2 .28 1.39 1 .00 3,36 3.53 6.95 12.02 7.08 3.52 11.51 15.16 4.36 21 . 72 -2.48 -0.56 49.50 -17.20 -4.48 7.61 11 . 72 57.28 20.22 48.40 16.14 -0.50 42.76 1.72 3.23 -2.15 -0.42 5.33 0,96 -4.86 1 .12 3.23 0.48 0.01 3.80 5,76 2.48 8.05 7.54 5.87 10.02 11 .45 -21.06 -11 .66 22.91 14.47 11 . 0 8 -13.76 12.72 15.91 20.78 7.31 15.72 30.36 -0.35 -8.98 52,49 1 .00 4.57 -2.27 2.84 4.20 4.09 -4.75 1.52 1 .93 1 .46 0 . 78 3.65 9.10 5 .32 10.06 5.58 6.20 14.65 8.54 -7.18 -1.97 10.87 14.56 16.58 -10.42 18.56 13.18 23.82 -12.06 54.31 41 .36 -55.45 18.46 57.98 32.05 23.90 -6.88 -11 .02 7,82 16.66 31.91 55.85 2.65 53.90 18.44 55.42 1 .29 1.65 0.29 -3.59 4.73 3,92 1.36 0,17 2.42 -0.22 1.04 3,24 2.40 5.12 9.69 10.89 1.89 10.88 11 .61 3.97 10.92 1 .30 13.17 43.57 -13.01 -5.23 7.43 12.89 48.67 3.85 53.33 7.94 3.43 32,31 1 .77 3.01 -3.05 2.24 4.53 2,47 -3.43 1.50 2.57 0.25 0.86 2.67 6.82 5.28 8.64 5.53 7.65 11 .33 10.62 -9.47 -6.60 14.07 13.22 9.78 -7.60 14.06 14.10 16.40 10,61 30.39 36.02 -40.74 20.93 39.52 3.43 1.72 -0.08 -0,74 3,80 4.28 1.12 - 1 .02 2.79 1.73 0.41 2.56 3.06 3.69 9.56 9.03 5 .74 8.08 13 .91 2.01 0.72 19^65 28.11 -13.63 -2.02 10.15 1 8.50 34,08 24.57 36.84 16.85 3.28 53 .6 7 (MAY 1985) 99 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. 332 1931... 19.52... 1953.. . 19 5 4 . . . 1955... 1956. . . 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961 . . . 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 19 7 O . . . 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979.. . 1980... 1981 . . . 1982... 1583.. , 1584... 1985... 88.5 86.2 84.9 86.5 86.5 90.2 93.8 94,3 95.0 95.8 95,2 94.8 94.7 95.7 96.0 97.7 99.9 101 . 1 104.2 108.6 111 . 8 116.3 123.4 142.6 180.0 184.4 195.6 207.8 226.8 266.9 296.8 311,6 309.9 317.1 332C. 1951 . . . 1952... 1953... 19 5 4 . . . If) 5 5 . . . 1956,.. 195 7 . . . 1958,. . 1959.. . I960... 1961 . . . 1962... 1963... 1964... 196 5 . . . 1966.. . 1967.. . 116 8 . . . 196 9 . . . 1970... 1971 . , . 1972 . . . 19 7 3 , . . 19 7 4 ! ! ! 1975... 1976.. . 1977... 1978... 1979... 1 980 1981 . . . 1982,. . 1983.,. 1984... 1985.,. 1951 1952*.'.! 1953... 1954... 1955 . . . 1956... 1957... 1958. . . 19 5 9 . . . 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 196?.., 1968... 1969... X9 70 . . . 1971 . . . 1972... 1973.,, 19 7 4 . . . 1975... 19 7 6 . . . 1977... 1978... 1979.,. 1980... 1981 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... PRODUCER PRICE 89.2 86.0 84.9 86.4 86.9 90.4 94,1 94.0 95.2 95.8 95,3 94.8 94.7 95.6 96.0 96.1 99.7 01 .6 04.6 0 8.5 12.0 17.0 25.3 45.2 79.5 84.9 96.6 £09 .1 128.9 171 . 9 198.2 10.9 10.0 117.9 89.3 85.5 85.3 86.4 86.8 91 . 1 94.0 94.0 95.3 95.9 95.4 94.9 94.6 95.4 96.1 98.3 99.6 101 . 7 105.1 108.4 112.6 117.2 127.5 149.3 1 78.3 185.5 198.3 210.4 231 .4 273.8 301 . 4 310.0 309.3 319.6 Apr. INDEX. 89.4 85.4 85.3 86.5 87.0 91.6 93.9 94.0 95.5 95.8 95.3 95,0 94.5 95.4 96.3 98.7 99.5 101.8 105.0 108.9 112.8 117.5 128.2 152.2 178.6 186.1 200.0 211.5 235.1 274.8 305.0 309.4 308.5 320.1 May June Aug. July INTERMEDIATE MATERIALS, (196 7-100) SUPPLIES 89.0 85.5 86.2 86.4 87.4 92.1 94.0 94.1 95.8 95.8 94.8 95.0 95.4 95.1 96.9 99.3 99.8 102.2 105.4 109.7 113.8 118.1 133.5 160.0 177.7 188.6 201 .5 214.8 240.4 278.6 307.1 309.8 311 .1 321 .5 86.9 85.5 86.5 86.4 88.4 92.3 94.5 94,3 95.7 95.6 94.7 95.0 95.3 95.2 97.1 100.3 100.0 102.4 106.0 89.3 85.2 85.9 86.6 87.2 92.0 93.8 94.0 95.9 95.6 95.0 95.1 95.2 95.3 96.5 99.2 99.5 101.9 105.2 109.3 113,2 117.9 131.1 156.9 177.9 187.1 201.4 213.2 237.7 276.2 306.2 309.5 309.6 320.9 88.1 85,3 86.8 86.6 88.1 91 .3 94.2 94.2 95,8 95.7 94.7 95.1 95.3 95.2 96,9 99.8 99.9 102.3 105.5 110.1 114.6 118.4 131 .3 165.7 178.4 189.7 202.0 215.4 244.4 281,0 307.8 310.4 312.1 320.9 CHANG1Z IN PR OQUCKR PRICE INDEX, INTEF MEDIATE MATEB1ALS, OVER 1-MONTH SPANS1 (PERCENT) 2.8 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0 .1 0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0,0 0.5 0.7 0.4 0 .5 2.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 1 .0 2 .4 1.3 0.3 -0.4 0.2 332C. Mar. Sept. 110.3 115.4 118.6 135.1 173.3 180.0 190.3 202.9 217.0 247.7 283.9 30 9.5 310.1 313.2 320.3 86.6 85.1 86.3 86.5 89.7 93,2 94,3 94.6 95.8 95.3 94.7 94.8 95.6 95.8 97.6 99.9 100.7 103.1 107.4 111.3 115.6 121.2 136.1 179.5 183.1 193.6 205.7 223.2 258.2 290.3 310.2 310.5 315.9 320.9 86.4 84.8 86.4 86.4 89.9 93 .4 94.4 95.0 95.7 95.1 94.9 94.8 95.7 96.0 97.5 99.9 101 .1 103.7 107.8 111 .4 116.2 122.8 139.0 179.4 183.8 194.9 206.6 224.6 260.6 293.1 310.6 311 .0 316.4 320.7 89.0 85.9 85.0 86.4 86.7 90.6 94.0 94.1 95.2 95.8 95.3 94.8 94.7 95.6 96.0 98.0 99.7 101,5 104.6 108.5 112.1 116.8 125.4 145.7 179.3 184.9 196.8 209.1 229.0 270.9 298.8 310.8 309.7 318.2 89.2 85.4 8S.8 86.5 87.2 91.9 93.9 94.0 95.7 95.7 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.3 96.6 99.1 99.6 102.0 105.2 109.3 113.3 117.8 130.9 156.4 178.1 187.3 201.0 213.2 237.7 276.5 306.1 309.6 309.7 320.8 -0.2 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 0 .2 0.2 0.1 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 0,2 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 -0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.1 0 .3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0 .1 0,3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0 .4 0 .0 2,8 0.5 0.6 0,4 0.6 1,6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0,0 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0,2 0 .1 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0 .9 1 .4 1 .1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.9 1.2 0 .9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.7 0.1 -0.3 0.4 0,3 -0.2 -1.0 -0.2 0.7 0.2 - 1 .4 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 -0,3 0,2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0,1 0.8 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.5 -0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.4 -0,2 -0.3 0.1 0.7 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 1.1 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0 .3 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 .2 86.5 85.4 86.4 86.2 89.6 93.1 94.2 94.5 95.7 95.5 94.5 94.9 95.6 95.8 97.3 99.8 100.3 102.9 106.9 111.2 115.3 120.2 134.7 177.4 182.4 192.3 204.3 221.2 255.9 2 8 7.9 309.9 310.1 315.9 320.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0 .2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.4 -0.2 0.5 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0 .1 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.5 0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0,4 0,4 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.5 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.5 1 .5 -0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 1 .8 2^8 -0.7 0.3 0,9 0.6 1 .1 0.5 1.9 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.5 1.6 2,3 3.1 -0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 2.0 -0.1 0.8 0.0 0.8 1.1 3.6 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.3 1 .7 4.6 0.9 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.4 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.5 0.8 1 .6 1.0 2.2 1.0 0.1 0.2 1.1 1.7 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 2.1 - 0 .1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.5 0.6 -0.1 0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.2 o!o ) .1 .0 . 1 .0 -( ) . 1 3.2 -2.5 -0.2 0.2 -3,2 1 .9 0.7 -2.1 3.3 0.0 -2.1 4.5 0.2 -1.2 3.8 0.0 0.2 2.6 -0.2 0.0 2,6 -0.7 -0.2 0.9 -0.2 4^5 1 .7 -0.4 5.2 1 .3 -0.6 5.0 1 .3 -0,6 2.5 0.9 -0.2 4.2 0.9 0.6 3.3 0.9 0.9 3.3 0.6 1 .1 5 .8 2.6 1 ,1 1 .3 o!a -oi* -0.6 0.8 0,2 -0.6 0.2 -0.2 -1.0 0.6 -0,4 -1.3 0.4 - 0 .6 -1 .5 0.2 -0.6 -1.7 -0.2 -0.4 1.0 2.9 -0.6 3.0 4.1 0 .8 -0.6 1.5 3,3 -0.8 2.4 4.1 1.3 -1 ,3 1.9 3.7 -0.2 2.2 3.3 1.3 -1.0 1.9 4.3 0.0 2.4 2.5 1.3 -0.8 2.3 4.5 0.6 1.6 2.7 1 .5 0.0 2.3 3.7 1.2 2.0 2.3 3.9 13.8 27,7 1 .4 4,1 8.2 7,2 13.0 15.3 4.0 17.0 32.9 -l.fi 4,4 8.2 7.4 13.4 14.4 3.3 18,2 32,5 -1.9 5.3 6.9 8.1 14.6 3.6 13.2 35.0 -1.8 5.8 6.7 7.4 16.1 10.8 2.8 16.3 42.4 0.6 5.9 6.5 7.7 17.1 9.0 3.8 9.5 35.0 2 .6 7.2 5.7 8.1 -0.3 -1.0 2.7 -o'.5 -o.'s -o!s U 2.4 -o!s 2^1 1.5 -0.6 3.2 14.3 0.1 3,2 3 0 .1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 1 .3 2.4 -0,2 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.0 1 .7 1.0 -0,1 -0,2 0.3 -3 .9 - I ,0 3.6 0.0 "6.1 -0.6 1.3 -0.3 = 3 .0 -1.0 -0.3 0.7 3.3 0,9 0.4 1.1 -0.4 -1.3 0.4 5. 9 2.9 0.9 1.4 0.0 -0.9 -0.7 -0.4 4,6 4.2 -0.6 1.8 0 .3 -0.7 0.3 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0^6 2.2 4.2 0.6 1 .3 1.9 1.6 2.2 0.S 1 .6 2.0 -0,7 2.9 AVERAGE FOR - 1 ,6 0.5 0.0 -0.9 -0.7 -0.2 -1,4 -0.2 1.2 -0.7 0.0 1 .2 12.6 -2.6 1 .7 0.3 2;8 0.9 1 .9 5.6 0.2 1.7 3.9 -1,1 1,9 3.0 -0.8 1 .9 4.9 1 .4 -0.5 - 1 .5 0.2 -0.4 -l!o 0.2 -0.8 -o!6 0.2 -0.6 _0'4 0 .4 -0.8 2 ,2 0.0 -0.5 0.7 88.1 83.5 86.0 86.5 88.1 92.0 94.1 94.3 95.6 95.6 9S.0 94.9 95.2 95.5 96.8 99.2 100,0 102.3 105.8 109.9 114.1 118.7 131,6 162.9 180,0 189.1 201.5 US,6 243.2 2 80.3 306,0 310.4 312.3 320.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0,0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0 .5 1 .0 2.2 0.2 0.5 e.s 0,7 1.2 1,0 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 >ERI0I> -0 .1 - I .3 1.6 0.2 ,l! 8 0,7 0.8 0.9 -o!6 0.0 1 .1 2.3 1.4 2 .4 1 .9 1 .2 1 .2 2.6 + .3 + .5 + .6 ) .4 5.9 + .3 3.7 4.3 5.7 7,8 30.9 3 .1 4.3 3.0 2.8 3.1 3.6 5.4 4,4 8.4 25 . 7 18.0 18.0 15.5 7.3 25.3 5.6 16.3 31 .0 -0.8 13.0 37.5 0.5 .8 7,1 4,3 9.6 18.0 10.5 6.8 5 .1 9.3 17.5 10.7 5.8 10.9 19.3 11.6 6.2 11.3 20.5 10.3 6 .5 11 .8 18.3 11 .7 7,8 7.6 6.3 7.7 17.2 9.4 8.9 30.8 5.7 6.9 4.6 9.4 18.0 10.3 3.0 11 .4 19.6 10.3 5.9 6.S 6.2 11,3 19.4 11.2 0 ,9 0.4 1.9 %.1 1,3 2.8 3.9 3 .% 4.1 6,2 14,4 27.4 2.8 6.1 6,2 9.0 17.0 11 . 4 0.6 4.1 0.0 0.8 3.4 -0.5 -0.3 3.2 -0.3 -0.1 3.0 -0.9 -0.6 2.9 -1.0 ~0.*4 2.4 1 .4 O.*6 4.1 -0.1 -O.*3 3.0 -0.7 -=0.1 2,3 0.9 18.3 8.5 0 .2 o'.s 4.9 0.2 1.7 1.7 0.2 2.4 NOTE: Percent changos are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 'This series contains revisions beginning with 1980. 2This series contains revisions beginning with 1979. 100 86.3 85.1 86.4 86.4 89.7 93.2 94.3 94.7 95.7 95.3 94.7 94.8 95.6 95.9 97.5 99.9 100.7 103.2 107.4 111.3 115.7 121 . 4 136.6 178.8 183.1 193.6 205.5 223.0 258.2 290.4 310.2 310.S 316.1 320.7 0.8 2.1 2.2 1.6 2.2 3.7 J.4 18.5 9.8 3,8 0.3 87.2 85.5 86.6 86.4 88.6 92.1 94.4 94.3 95.7 95.6 94.7 95.0 95.3 95.3 97.1 100.1 100,0 102.5 105.9 110.3 115.1 118.8 133.3 170.8 179.7 190.7 202.9 217.1 247.9 283.4 309.0 310.3 313.5 3 20.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 0 .3 1 .5 2.3 -0.1 0.5 0.5 0.7 1,3 0 .6 0.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 ) .5 CHANG! IN PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, INTERMEDIATE MATERIALS, SUPPL1 ES, AND COMPONENTS, (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) OVER 6-MONTH SPANS2 -0.4 1.1 Annual AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 II Q IQ SUPPLIES, AND COMPONENTS, 0.1 -0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 IV Q Dec. AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 86 . 7 85.6 86.4 86.3 89.2 92.6 94.4 94.4 95.6 95.6 94.7 95.0 95.3 95.4 97.2 100.1 100.2 102 . 7 106.3 110 .6 115.4 119.4 133.4 173.5 180.6 192.1 203.9 218.8 251 .7 285.2 309.7 310.3 315.1 320.0 0.8 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 III Q Nov. Oct. AND COMPONENTS1 1.7 2.1 -1.2 3.2 1 .5 2,3 - 1 .0 3.0 -o!s 1 .5 3.3 -0.5 13.7 14.7 -O.*4 -o!s 3.0 (MAY 198S) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. 333. 1951... 1952... 1953 . . . 1954... 19 5 5 . . . 1956... 19 5 7 . . . 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 19 7 0 . . . 19 7 1 . . . 1972... 1973.,. 1974... 1975... 19 7 6 . . . 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981 . . . 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 70. 1 71. 8 72 . k 74. 2 75. 3 79. i 85. ? 89. + 90. 7 91. & 91. 8 92. 3 92. 2 92, 5 93. 9 95. ) 98. 8 101. 9 105. L 109. B 115. 3 118. L 120. I 128. L 157. 3 168. B 178. ? 192. X 208. 3 228. 2 253. i 274. 3 284. 290. > 70.4 72.4 72.4 74.3 75.1 79.9 86.3 89.5 90.8 91.7 91.7 92.0 92.2 92.7 94.0 95.4 99.1 102.2 105.4 110.2 115.7 118.7 121.1 129.2 158.3 169.6 179.8 193.2 210.1 .230.0 255.9 274.2 285.0 291.7 333C. 1951 . . . 1952.,. 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957,.. 1958.,. 1959... I960.., 1961.,. 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 1967... 1968.,. 1969... 19 7 0 . , . 1971... 19 7 2 . . . 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977.,, 1978.,. 1979... 1980... 1981... 1982.., 1983.,. 1984... 1985... 1 . 0. J 0. 0. ) 0.4 0. L 0. X 0. o.; 0. -0. -0. o .*t 0. o . ;I 0. 1 0. + 0. * 0. I 0. ) I .I i. X 0. 7 0. 0. 0. 1 A• 1. 0.4 12 ./* 12. 7.C 5. ) 6. > io.; 13.: 9. ) 4.4 > 3! 7 IV Q Annual 71 . 4 72.6 71.4 72.6 71.7 72-3 71.2 72.4 74.7 76.4 82.1 87.7 89.7 91 . 8 91 . 8 91.8 92.3 92.3 93.5 74.5 77.1 82.8 88.0 89.6 91.8 91.9 91.8 92.3 92.3 93.6 74.5 77.9 84.0 88.4 89.6 91.9 91.1 91 . 9 92.3 92.5 93.6 74.5 78.7 84,8 88.7 89.8 91,8 91 . 7 92,0 92.2 92.6 93.6 74.6 75.8 81 . 6 87.0 89.7 91 .6 91 , 7 91 . 8 92.2 92.2 93.3 96.3 99.7 103.3 106.2 111.2 116.5 119.5 123.2 136.0 161.4 171,8 182.5 196.9 214.7 236.5 96.7 99.8 103.4 106.5 111 .4 U6.6 119.7 123.5 138.9 162.0 172.7 183.5 198.5 215.9 237.9 97.0 99.9 103.7 107.0 111 . 9 117.1 119.9 123.7 141 . 8 163.1 173.5 184.5 199.9 217.5 240.9 97. X 100.:I 104.( 107.'I 112. 11 7.^t 119.* 124. 145.. 163.4 174.5 186,1 201.3 217.5 243.0 97.4 100.4 104.2 107.7 112.7 117.2 120.2 124. 6 148.3 164-7 175.8 18 7.2 203.0 219.9 244.5 94.6 97.8 100.9 104.5 108.1 114,0 116.9 119.6 124.9 151 .5 165.6 176.4 189.0 203.3 221.4 248.2 74.9 79.0 85.6 89.3 90.5 91 . 5 91 .6 91 .9 92.3 92*8 93.5 94.9 98.6 101 . 6 104. 7 109.4 114.9 117.7 120.2 126.6 155.1 167.7 1 78, 7 191 . 7 206.7 225.1 250.6 74.3 75.1 79.9 86.3 89.5 90.9 91.7 91 . 8 92.0 92.2 92.8 95.9 99.4 102-9 105.8 110.8 116.2 119.3 122.3 132.4 160.8 171.3 181.5 195.4 213.4 235.7 74.5 78.6 85.5 89.0 90.2 91 .5 91 .6 91.9 92.2 92.6 93.6 94.8 98.3 101 .2 104. 7 108.9 114.6 116.9 119.8 125.5 153 .7 166.8 177.2 190.4 205.3 223.1 249.6 94.0 95-3 99.0 102.2 105.4 110 .2 115.6 118.6 121.0 129.4 158.4 169.7 179.8 193.3 210 .0 230.1 94.4 96.3 99.6 103.2 106 .2 111 .1 116.4 119.5 123.0 135.8 161 .4 171 , 9 182.5 196,9 214.7 236.7 74.6 77.1 83.0 88.0 89.6 91 . 8 91.6 91 . 8 92.3 92.4 93.6 94 .6 97-2 100.2 104.0 107 .3 112.3 117.2 120,0 124.1 145.2 163.7 174.6 185.9 201 . 4 218.3 242.8 74.6 78.8 85.3 89.0 90-2 91 .6 91 .6 91 . 9 92.2 92.7 93.6 94.8 98.2 101 .2 104,6 108.8 114.5 117.2 119.9 125.7 153.4 166.7 177.4 190.4 205.1 223.2 249.5 74.5 76.7 82.4 87.5 89.8 91.5 91 . 7 91 . 8 92.2 92.4 93.3 94 .4 96.8 100.0 103.5 106.9 112.0 116.6 119.5 123.5 141.0 162.5 173.4 184.6 199.2 216.5 239.8 276.6 285.9 294.3 277.9 286.3 293.8 279.3 286.9 2 94,1 2 80.3 287.3 2 94.7 281.5 288.4 295.3 281 .9 288.4 295.8 282.2 289.0 295.1 283.0 289.2 295.9 284.3 289. 7 295.0 275.0 285 .0 291 .6 277.9 286 .4 294.1 281 .2 288.0 295.3 283.2 289.3 295.3 279.4 287.2 2 94.1 0,0 0.8 0.3 0.2 0 .1 0.2 0.6 0 .4 INDEX, CAPITAL EQUIPMENT, OVER 1-MONTH SPANS 1 (PERCENT) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 1 .3 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 -0.3 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.1 0-1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 -0,3 -0.4 -0-1 -0.3 0.9 0.9 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 1.4 0.5 0.0 0.1 -0.9 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0-2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 -0.2 0.7 2.7 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.2 2.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.2 2.1 0-7 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.3 2.6 0.2 0.6 0-9 0.7 0.4 1.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.8 - 0 -8 1.6 0.6 -1.1 0.3 7.5 7.8 0.4 1 .1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.9 1 .1 0.4 1.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.9 0.4 1.1 1.8 -0.9 -0.2 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 1.1 2-3 2.2 3.0 3.1 4 .4 5.9 1 .2 0.5 2.7 5.1 6.2 0.7 0.5 2.5 5.5 6.4 1.9 0.8 26.8 6.5 .5.9 7.1 28.4 6.1 6.2 30.9 6.1 6.0 7.3 8,6 7.2 8.9 8.0 10.9 8.1 4.5 8.4 8.2 6.8 6.4 8.8 8.7 8.0 11.4 7.9 3.7 2.0 1.4 7.2 7.1 9.1 8.4 8.7 11.0 7.6 3.6 2 .0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.0 0,4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.7 0.0 - 0 .1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.3 AVE1 IAGE FOR PERIOD 0.0 0.0 - 0 .4 0.0 -0.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 0 .1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0,3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0-0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0-2 0.1 0.3 0 .4 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0,7 0.1 -0.1 0.5 0.3 0.4 1 .2 -0.3 0.2 2.2 0.5 0.3 1 .0 0.1 0 .7 1 .5 0.9 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 1 .5 0.7 0.5 0.7 1 .0 0 .8 0 .6 0.2 0.5 0,3 0.7 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.8 0 .7 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5' 0.5 0.2 -0.3 3 -1 -0.3 0.5 3 .1 0.6 0.3 7.4 8.6 3 .4 2-7 - 0 .2 - 0 .4 1 .1 3-7 -0.2 0.9 0.9 1 . 7 3.9 6.5 6.3 2 ,5 3.6 -0.2 1 .5 0 ,4 -0.2 1 .1 1 .3 1 .7 3 .5 2 . 7 5.3 6 .2 2.7 5.7 6.3 2.7 5.5 5.8 1.7 0.5 2.2 2.0 2-9 2.5 7. 7 > .2 7.3 5.7 8.0 8. 7 11 . 5 11 -4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0 .2 0 .1 0.1 0 .1 0 .0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0 .3 0.3 0.4 1 .1 1 .0 0.6 0.4 0.5 1 .1 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0 .1 0.5 0 -1 0 .4 0.7 0 .2 0.1 0.2 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0,1 0,1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0,3 0.2 0.2 0-5 2 .0 0.5 0.4 0 .5 0 .7 0.8 0.7 0 .4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0,1 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0,1 0,1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0-4 0-2 0-2 0.3 2.2 0.6 0.6 0 . 7 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.3 0-2 0 .2 0.1 -0.1 -0-1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 -0,1 0-2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0 .4 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 -0 . 1 0.3 0-0 0.2 0 -1 0.4 0.7. 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 1-7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0 .2 CHAN AVERAGE FOR PERIOD PERC BNT) 2.8 4,0 2.8 2.6 0.3 1 .1 0.0 1 .4 -0.6 1.9 3.5 8.0 1 .6 3 .2 1.4 3.8 0.5 5.4 0.5 7,0 0.0 8.7 0.2 0.4 0.7 0 .0 1 .7 1 .5 3.2 2.9 4.2 2.9 4.3 3.3 4.5 5.8 17.4 0 .4 0.7 0.4 0-0 1 .1 1 .9 3.8 2.4 3.6 3.5 3 .7 3 .0 3.4 > 0 A* 0 .( 0. 1 2.2 0.4 1 .5 -1 .5 20.4 22 . 6.1 6.1 6.9 9.4 12 -4 10.4 4.0 2.3 3.2 6 .1 5.4 7.2 9 .1 11.7 10.9 4.1 1 ,8 3.1 ) 5 A 6 A* 8.1 9'!c 11 At 9; 1 4.0 2.3 2.9 0, J 2. 7 6, 4 t 2.C 3A -o.; I .] I. 7 2A ) 3.: 4.{ 2. 5. 3. ) 4. 111 Q 70.5 72.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 12.2 2.5 o!c II Q 71 . 7 72.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 s 2,.I 0. Q 71.7 72.3 0 .. 13. Dec. 71 . 7 (ANNUAL RAT E, 1951 . . 1952... 1953... 1954,.. 1955... 1956... 1957.. 1958!.. 1959... 1960... 1961 . . . 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965.,. 1966... 1967.. . 1968.., 1969... 19 7 0 . . . 1971.. . 1972... 1973.,. 1974... 1975... 19 7 6 . . . 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980.. . 1981 . . . 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... Nov. 71.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 333C. Oct. 71.3 0.1 -0. Sept. 71.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0,0 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.1 1 .0 0.9 Aug. 71 . 5 72.7 73 .9 74.6 76.1 82.0 87,1 89.7 91.9 91 . 7 91.9 92-1 92.3 93.3 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 July 71.4 72.6 73 . 3 74.6 75.8 81.7 87.0 89.7 91 . 6 91.6 91.8 92.2 92.2 93.4 0.9 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0-0 0.3 0.2 0.1 June 71.2 72.5 73 ,0 74,5 75.5 81.2 86.8 89.6 91.3 91.7 91.8 92.2 92.2 93.1 CHANGE IK PRODUCER PRICE 0.4 0.8 0 .0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.5 0,1 0.1 0.1 -0 .1 0.0 0.0 0. 0. 71.0 72.5 72. 7 74.3 75. 80.J 86 . 89. 91. 91 . 91 . 92. 92. 93.0 94.2 95.6 99.1 102,4 105.6 110.6 115.9 118.9 121 .7 130.9 159. < 170. 180. 194. 211 ,( 232.2 258.1 275.8 285.8 2 92.5 May PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, CAPITAL EQUIPMENT 1 (196 7=100) 6 .4 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.; 2 -( 2.0 I"' 1 .3 1.3 1 .3 I'A 2.2 3.6 2.6 3,5 3 A 3, 3.1 3 .] 3.4 3.7 3.0 2.0 4.0 11.6 8.6 5.4 2.4 2.5 0.7 3.8 1.8 2.3 7.6 10.9 8.2 4.1 2.2 0.5 0.8 - 1 .1 0.0 8.0 9.5 3 .9 2.2 -0.4 0.0 0.4 -0.2 0.7 0.9 7.1 6.3 8.5 8.6 10.1 10.8 7.1 2 .7 2.2 1 .6 NOTE: Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month inges are placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 'This series contains revisions beginning with 1980. a This series contains revisions beginning with 1979. 0.4 7.8 3.9 1 .8 1( ) , 9 ,. 7 -.5 -.3 X, 1 5.6 2.8 2.9 2.7 1C . 7 1.5 J ,1 .4 > .1 7.4 J.9 .5 J -2 ) .1 ) .4 ). 5 ) .0 .3 .7 5.3 £.9 J.9 .0 • .4 3 .4 2 .6 1 .0 4.7 0.8 5.4 7.8 4.1 0-4 2 .0 -0.2 0.1 0 .6 0 -4 1 .8 1 .3 4.0 2.3 3-6 3.7 3.8 2.8 4.0 2.4 16.7 10.7 6-4 5.8 25-9 6.8 5.9 6 .9 8.6 8.1 11 . 3 7.0 9.6 12-5 10 . 4 4.2 2 .2 3 .3 8.8 4.6 2 -2 2 .6 0-9 -0.8 1 .7 0.2 8.0 9.2 4. 7 1 .1 0 .0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 1 .0 0.6 0.9 4.1 3.2 2.8 5-0 6.2 1 .3 0 .6 27.8 6.7 6.5 8.S 8-4 8.1 11 . 1 7.9 3.8 2.1 0.8 2.3 -0.3 0.3 1.5 7.3 8.1 3.3 2.8 -0.3 0 .4 0,4 -0.2 0.9 1-0 1.5 3.7 4.0 2 .7 5.5 6.1 2.3 1 .7 8.7 19.1 7.4 6.1 8.1 8.7 11.1 11 .0 6,1 2.7 2.5 2.1 4.1 0.6 2.4 1 .0 6.0 8.1 4.0 1 .4 1.2 0.0 0.3 0.3 0,6 1 .2 1-3 3.8 3.1 3-2 4.3 5.1 2,4 2.2 5.9 22.4 7.9 6.2 7,4 8.2 9.2 11 . 5 8.3 3.8 2.2 2.2 (MAY 1985) 101 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Apr. Mar. 334. PRODUCER May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. 1 Nov. Dec. IQ II Q 91.7 91 .2 89.1 89.2 88.8 86.7 91.5 94.5 93.8 93.6 95.1 94.8 94.1 94.3 94.6 98.8 99.3 101 .4 104.5 10 9.5 114.7 122.9 141 .9 159.0 167.9 176.4 187.9 208.3 239.0 265.0 277.8 283.2 289.8 92.4 90.8 88.9 89.4 88.7 89.7 92.0 94.7 93.8 94.4 94.0 94.2 94.1 94.1 95.9 99.0 99.6 102.4 106.1 10 9.5 112.8 115.6 127.5 145.5 161 .2 168.8 179.9 193.1 213.5 245,1 271.5 278.5 283.7 2 90.6 91.2 90.8 89.3 89.0 68.2 90.0 92.7 94.4 93.6 94.6 94.1 94.7 94.2 94.4 96.4 99.9 100.4 103.2 107.1 110.0 113.1 117.4 132.0 151 .6 165.5 169.6 182.0 197.0 220.4 253.5 273,3 282.3 285-4 2 90 .3 1971 . . . 1972.. . 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1,980... 1981... 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 90.8 91 .2 89.3 89.5 88.8 88.4 91 .3 94.1 93.9 93.3 95.0 94.8 94.4 94.7 94.5 98.2 99.5 100.9 104.4 92.3 91.2 89.1 89.0 89.0 88.6 91.7 94.1 93.8 93.3 95.4 94.9 94.2 94.0 94.5 99.0 99.3 101.5 104.3 92.1 91.3 89.0 89.0 88.6 89.1 91.6 95.2 93.6 94.2 94.9 94.6 93,6 94.1 94.9 99.3 99.0 101.8 104.8 92.4 91.0 88.7 89.5 88.8 89.0 91.8 94.6 93.9 94.4 94.4 94.3 93.7 94.1 95,6 99.4 99.3 102,2 105.3 92.6 90 .8 88.9 89.6 88.3 69.8 91.9 94.9 93.7 94.3 93.9 94.3 94.2 94 .0 95.9 99.0 99.4 102.3 106.2 92.3 90.6 89.0 89.1 86.9 90.2 92.3 94.7 93.7 94.4 93.8 94.0 94.4 94.2 96.3 98.5 100.2 102.6 106.8 91.4 91 .0 89.2 89.3 88.0 89.9 92.6 94.5 93.4 94.7 94.0 94.0 94.4 94.3 96.2 98.9 100.1 102.9 106.9 91.2 90.9 89.1 89.2 88.2 89.8 92.8 94.3 93.1 94.6 94.3 94.6 94.2 94.3 96.4 100.2 100.4 103.0 107.1 91 .1 90.5 89.7 88.6 88.4 90.4 92.6 94.4 94.2 94.6 94.0 95.5 94.1 94.5 96.5 100.5 100 . 7 103.7 107.4 91.6 91.7 90.3 90.0 89.3 88.9 88.5 88.7 88.2 • 88.4 90.6 91.0 93.0 93.4 94.1 94.0 93.3 92.9 95.3 95.5 93.9 94.0 94.7 94.8 94.2 94.3 94.5 94.4 96.9 9 7.3 100.3 100.0 100.6 100.8 103.9 104.0 108.1 109.0 91 .8 89.1 89.0 88.6 88.5 91 .2 93.8 94.0 93.2 95.2 94.4 94.5 94.1 94.3 98.1 99.7 101 .0 104.1 109.1 10 9.6 111 .1 114.4 120.8 139.4 159.5 168.4 174.4 186.6 206.1 235.7 262.5 278.1 283.4 286.8 111 ! 6 114.9 122.3 142.5 159.0 167.6 176.5 188.1 208.5 239.3 264.5 277.9 283.3 2 89.S 111.8 114.8 125.5 143.7 158.6 167.6 178.2 189.1 210.3 242.0 268.0 277.5 282.9 2 91.2 10 9,6 112.4 114.9 126.4 144.8 160.0 168.7 179.0 191 .7 212.4 243.7 270.9 277.8 282.8 2 90,9 112.8 115.6 127.3 146.2 161 .1 168.6 180.3 192.8 213.4 244.6 271 .2 277.5 283.6 2 90 .5 113.2 116.2 128.9 145.5 162.5 169.0 180.4 194.8 214.8 246.9 272.4 280.1 2 84.7 2 90.3 112.6 116.8 128.4 149.4 164.1 169.3 181 .1 196.3 217.2 251 .2 272.8 281 .4 2 84.5 2 91 .0 109.5 113.4 117.3 134.0 152.0 165,7 169.6 182.1 196.4 219.9 254.2 273.0 282.6 285.5 2 90.1 113.2 118.1 133.5 153.4 166.8 170.0 182.7 198.3 224.1 255.1 274.1 2 82.8 286 .1 289.9 113.6 117.6 133.2 156.2 168.2 171.2 183.5 199.6 226.6 256.6 274.8 283.7 286.5 289.9 114.8 119.6 135.6 159. 168.9 173.8 185.6 203.6 232.0 259,5 276.6 286.0 2 86.5 2 91 .2 334C. CHANGE IN PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FINISHED CONSUMER GOODS, (PI:RCENT) 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 195S... 1956... 1.8 -0.7 0 ,2 1.7 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.3 -0.3 -0 .3 0.2 -0.2 0 .2 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.4 0.6 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 0.9 1 9 58... 1959!!! I960... 1961 . . . 196s!. . 1963.. . 1964.. . 1965.. . 1966... 1967... 196 8 . . . 1969... 1970... 1971 . . . 1972... 1973... 0.3 n n -0.1 0.0 1*5 -0.2 1.0 0 .2 n \ 0.1 -0 .2 0.4 -0.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 -0.3 1.0 0.3 0.2 -0^2 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.7 0.0 0.8 -0.2 0.6 -0.1 -0.2 0.5 0.4 1.2 -0.3 -0.6 0.1 0.4 0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.2 -0.1 2.6 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 1 9 7 5 .'.*.' 19 7 6 . . . 1977... 1978.,. 1979.,. 1980... 1981... 1 982 1983... 0.3 =0.3 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.6 1.2 0 .5 -0.9 -Oo3 =0.5 1.2 0.8 1.2 1.5 0.8 - 0 .1 0.0 -0.3 0.0 1.0 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.3 - 0 .1 -0.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 1 .4 1.0 0.7 1.1 0 .1 0.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 o!o -1.0 0.4 0 .2 0.2 -1.0 -0.3 1932... -0.1 -0.4 0.5 -0.2 0.1 -0.3 0,1 -1.0 1 .1 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.7 0.2 0.7 -0.1 -0.2 0,2 0.2 0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 -ois 0.3 -0.3 0 .4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 -0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0 .1 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0,4 -0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0 .4 -0.2 0.3 0.0 O.S -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 -0,1 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.4 -1.0 0.7 -o!4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0 .4 -0.1 0.3 1.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0 .3 0.3 0.7 -0.8 0.1 0.0 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.3 0.2 0. 0,3 0.4 0.1 -0.5 -0.2 0.7 1 .1 -0.2 1 .3 -0.4 4.4 - 0 .4 0.9 0.7 0.2 0,3 1.0 1.9 0.4 0.4 -0.2 1.0 0.8 1 .6 0.9 1 .2 1 . 7 1 .0 0.2 0.6 0,1 1.2 1 .2 0.1 1.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.6 0.3 2.0 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.8 0.3 1.3 1 .0 0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.3 0.6 0.6 1 .1 1.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.3 0.3 -0.3 0 .5 0.*8 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 0 .3 0.2 - 0 .1 1 «8 0.9 0.2 0,4 0,6 1 .4 1 .1 0.2 0 .3 0.2 -0 ,1 -0.3 0,2 0.2 0.4 -0.5 0.8 0,3 TO.3 0.7 -0.1 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.4 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.7 0.1 0.3 0.4 -0.1 334C. CHANGE IN PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, (Al 13.8 -1.3 -3.5 12.0 -2.0 -2.4 7.1 -2.6 -0.2 1 .3 -0.4 -0.2 -2.4 -0,7 0.0 -2.2 -1 .7 1 .6 0.7 1.8 -0.9 0.7 -1 .8 -1.8 -0.5 .3 FINISHED CONSUMER GOODS, OVER 6-MONTH NT) -1 . 7 L.5 -1,1 -3.3 -0.4 -3.7 0.0 -3.9 0.4 -3.3 11 .0 -2.0 -1.1 -0.9 0.5 -1 .6 = 2.2 0.5 0.2 -0.9 -1,4 3.0 -0.7 a.8 -0.6 0.2 0.9 4.3 2.8 -1.1 0. 1 . 1 . -0. -0. 0. 0.2 3.0 3 .3 -1.5 -1.1 1 .7 1 .3 0.9 3.1 3.3 -1.3 -0.2 0.6 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.4 1.6 2.7 3.3 -1 .9 -1 .7 2.6 0.2 1 .1 0.2 0,9 -1 .7 0.0 0.6 1 .3 -3.9 0.0 0.8 2.9 -0.5 2 .7 -2.7 0. -0! -0.1 -0.4 2 .2 -2,1 = 0 .1 0.4 0.2 -3.0 2.2 2.1 3.9 3. -0. 3. 4. 3.7 2.1 2.3 3.6 5.1 -1,5 -1.4 2.1 0.1 1.0 0.2 0.7 3,1 2.1 2.3 3.2 5.0 3.2 -0.6 3.0 -3.3 1.9 -0.6 2,6 -2.9 0.9 -1 .1 3.0 -2.1 0.4 -1.5 2.8 -2.3 -1.7 1.3 0.9 -1,9 -2.1 »0.2 2 .3 5.'2 -2.0 3.2 2.7 2.8 3.5 2.3 15.5 18.2 4.9 0.6 9.3 9,1 13.2 15.7 11 .5 2.2 -0.6 3.1 -1.3 -0.6 3,2 -0.2 0.2 4.3 0.0 -0.8 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.9 1 ,1 0.9 -1.2 3.0 1.0 3.2 1 .4 1.2 4.0 2.4 2.2 3.0 2.4 3.5 3.a 2.0 2.8 2.5 1.6 1.2 1.6 0.6 3.5 2.8 IS.6 18.2 a.i -0.2 9.2 8.6 12.7 13.3 10.2 1.5 -1.0 3.5 0.9 4.6 2.5 16.2 15.1 4.3 0.1 7.7 10.2 11.3 13.3 10.2 2.5 -0.9 2.7 0.2 2.7 4.2 13.0 14.9 0 .2 3.3 4.2 20.0 13.8 2 .2 2.5 5.8 13.2 14.0 1.8 2.6 3.4 5.4 1 .6 2.1 5.3 2.9 2.1 4 .4 2.0 2.8 5.1 2.6 3.2 11 . 0 16.4 11 . 6 18.9 10.7 19.6 17.9 14.0 13. 9. 1.1 7.8 10.7 11,1 13.6 8.0 2 .4 0.8 1.5 2.4 6 .4 9.0 11 , 2 12.8 6.5 3.4 1 .6 0.4 2 .9 5.1 10.0 13.6 11 .1 4.6 3.9 2.3 -0.9 3.0 5.1 8.4 13.8 10.9 2.9 4.3 2.6 -0.7 4,7 5.3 8.7 16.0 11 . 6 3.1 5.6 1.4 0.3 5.8 5.8 9.2 16.7 10.5 3.1 4.3 1.3 0.6 6.1 6.2 10.2 17.8 9.2 3.9 1.4 3.0 0.1 8.. 6. 12. 18.t 8.. 3.( 0.. 2.fi 0.1 NOTE: Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month inges are placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 'This series contains revisions beginning with 1980. 2 This series contains revisions beginning with 1979. 102 0,2 -0.2 0 .0 0.6 0.0 0.2 -0.4 0.2 0.1 •=0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.5 -0,3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.4 O.S 1 .2 0,4 0,8 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.3 0 .4 0,0 0 .1 0.2 -0 .1 o,'o 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.1 1*3 0.5 0.2 O.S 0.8 1.1 O.'f 0.3 0.3 0,0 0 ,1 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD -1.9 -1 .8 3,5 -0.4 2,4 -1.9 o!e 0.2 -O.S - 0 .2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0 .4 SPANS 2 l.b _ .1 .3 .9 - .1 s!s 91,8 90.7 89.2 89.1 88,5 89.8 92.4 94.4 93.6 94.5 94.3 94.6 94,1 94.3 96.1 99.4 100.0 102.7 106.6 10 9.9 112.9 116.6 129.2 149.3 163.6 169.7 180.7 194.9 217.9 248.9 271.3 281.0 284.6 2 90.4 0 .0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 -0.1 0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.9 91.7 89.8 89.1 88.6 88.4 90.9 93.4 94,0 93.1 95.3 94.1 94.7 94,2 94.4 97.4 100,0 100.8 104.0 108.7 110.7 114.1 118.5 134.4 158.2 168.6 1 72.5 184.7 201.4 229.5 2S8.2 27S.6 284.9 286.2 2 90 . 7 PERIOD -0.2 -0.1 1 934 '. '. . 1956.. . 1937... 1958... 1959... I960... 1961 . . . 1 96 2 . 196s!!! 1964,., 1965 . . . 1966.. . 196?.. . 1968., . 1969... 1970... 1971 . . . 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 19 7 6 . . . 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981 . . . 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... Annual OVER 1-MONTH SPANS1 1985,.. mi... in!s -0.1 0 .3 0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.3 0.1 -0.3 0,3 0 .7 114.0 118.4 134.5 159.4 168.8 172.5 185.0 201.0 229.8 258.4 275,4 285.1 285.6 290.9 0 ,3 0.1 0.4 IV Q AVERAGE FOR PERIOD (1967-100) 1951 . . . 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 196 5 1966 1967 1968 . . 1969,.. III Q - 1 . 2. 5 4. 1 3. 2. • 0.0 -3,6 -0.4 -0 .5 1 .1 3.4 3.9 -1.4 0.1 1.0 1.4 = 1 .3 0.1 0.5 *>. 2 -1 .2 2.0 2.5 4,4 2.8 3.9 2.8 2.3 2,9 15.9 6.9 1 .0 9.9 7.1 12.5 16.6 10.4 2.5 0.1 3.6 0.6 15.8 17.2 3.8 0 .2 8.7 9.3 12.4 14,1 10 ,6 2 .1 -0.8 3.1 15.4 14.2 8.4 2 .1 6 .4 9.9 12.0 12.5 6.4 3.2 1 .6 0.3 11.1 18.3 9.4 4.5 S.4 8.8 15.§ 11 .0 3.0 4.7 1 .6 0.1 IS.6 10.1 2.9 8.1 6.7 11 . 8 17.6 9.3 3.3 0.7 3.1 0.3 2,1 -2.2 -0.4 =0,2 3.0 3.0 0.0 -0.6 2.0 -0,8 0 .0 =0,1 0.3 3 .8 1 ,S 1.5 3.1 4.7 1.8 3.0 u!§ 1S.0 6.1 3.7 6.8 9.9 14.4 11 ,7 S.8 2,7 I .4 (MAV 1088) C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Apr. Mar. 335. PRODUCER May June PRIC1 IHDEX, INDUSTRIAL (1967=100) July 1951 . . < 1952... 1953... 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 1965... 1966... 196 7 . . . 196 8 . . . 1969... 1970... 1971 . . . 1972... 1973... 1974... 1975... 19 76 . . . 1977... 1978... 1979... 86.6 84.9 84.0 85.1 85.6 89.5 93.0 93.7 94.7 95.7 95.2 95.0 94.7 95.3 95.9 97.4 99.5 101,5 104.3 108.3 112.2 115.9 120.0 135.3 167.5 177.4 188.4 201.6 220.0 87.1 84.9 84.0 84.9 86.0 89.6 93.2 93.4 94.9 95.6 95.2 94.8 94.6 95.2 95.9 97.6 99.7 102.0 104.9 108.6 112.5 116.5 121.3 138.2 168.4 178.1 190.0 202.9 222.5 87.1 84.6 84.3 84.9 85.9 89.9 93.1 93.4 95.2 95.6 95.2 94.8 94.6 95.1 96.0 97.8 99.7 102.2 105.4 108.8 113.0 116.8 122.8 142.4 168.9 179.0 191.7 204.1 225.4 87.0 84.2 84.1 85.0 86.0 90.3 93.1 93.2 95.3 95.6 95.1 94.9 94.4 95.1 96.0 98.1 99.6 102.4 105.5 109.3 113.4 117.3 124.2 146.6 169.7 180.1 193.3 206.1 229.0 86.7 83.9 84.4 85.0 85.8 90.4 93.0 93.1 95.4 95.2 94.8 94.9 94.5 95.1 96,2 98.5 99.7 102.3 105.5 109.6 113.8 117.6 125.3 150.5 170.3 180.5 194.2 207.4 231 .6 86.4 83.6 84.7 84.9 85.9 90.3 93.0 93.1 95.2 95.2 94.6 94.7 94.7 94.9 96.4 98.7 99.7 102.4 105.6 109.9 114.0 117.9 126.0 153.6 170.7 181.5 194.7 208.7 234.0 86.0 83.5 85.3 84.9 86.5 90.2 93.4 93.3 95.4 95.2 94.6 94.8 94.8 95.1 96.4 99.0 99.7 102 .4 105.7 110.1 114.6 118.1 126.1 157.8 171 .2 182.7 195.9 210.2 237.5 1981*.!! 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... 29K5 311.8 313.9 319.1 295.7 311.6 313.9 320.6 299.6 311.0 313.5 321.9 303.5 309.9 312.4 322.6 304.7 309.6 313.6 323.2 305.1 310.6 315.3 323 .8 2 76.2 306.2 312.8 316.5 323,9 335C 2.1 -0.2 1951... 1952... 1953... 1954... 1 955 . . . 1956!!! 1957... 1959!!. 1960... 1961... 1962... 1963... 1964... 196 5 . . . 1966... 1967... 1968... 1969... 19 7 0 . . . 1971... 19 7 2 . . . 1973... 1974... 1975... 1976... 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980... 1981 . . . 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... COMKODITIES, IQ II Q 85.1 83.9 85.1 85.0 88.4 91.8 93.5 93 .9 95.4 95.1 94.5 94.7 94.9 95.5 96.7 99.1 100.5 103.3 107.1 111 .2 115.1 118.8 128.5 164.8 174.7 186.3 199.1 214. 7 249.0 282 .0 309.0 314.3 318.5 323.4 85.0 83.8 85.0 85.3 88.7 92.3 93.5 94.2 95.5 95.0 94.7 94.7 94.9 95.6 97.1 99.2 100.8 103.4 107.4 111 .3 115.0 119.1 130.1 165.8 175.4 187.1 199.3 216.0 250.6 283.4 309.3 315.0 318.3 323.8 85.1 83.9 85.1 85.3 89.0 92.7 93.7 94.5 95.6 95.0 94.9 94.7 95.2 95.8 97.1 99.2 101 .1 103.8 107.8 111 .7 115.5 119.4 132.2 166.1 1 76 .1 187.4 200 .0 217.2 253.1 2 86.6 310.0 315.2 318.4 323.0 86.9 84.8 84.1 85.0 85.8 89.7 93.1 93.5 94.9 95.6 95.2 94.9 94.6 95.2 95.9 97.6 99.6 101 .9 104.9 108.6 112.6 116.4 121.4 138.6 168.3 178.2 190.0 202.9 222.6 26 5.0 295.6 311.5 313.8 320.5 86.7 83.9 84.4 85.0 85.9 90.3 93.0 93.1 95.3 95.3 94.8 94.8 94.5 95.0 96.2 98.4 99.7 102.4 105.5 109.6 113.7 117.6 125.2 150.2 170.2 180.7 194.1 207.4 231.5 2 72.2 304.4 310.0 313.8 323.2 85.5 83.8 85.3 84.9 87.3 90.9 93.5 93.6 95.4 95.1 94.6 94.7 94.8 95.1 96.5 99.0 100.0 102.6 106.1 110.2 115.0 118.4 126.7 160.8 172.2 183.8 196.9 211 .4 240.8 2 7 7.7 306.9 312.9 317.0 323.1 85.1 83.9 85.1 85.2 88.7 92 ,3 93.6 94.2 95.5 95.0 94.7 94.7 95.0 95.6 97.0 99.2 100.8 103.5 107.4 111.4 115.2 119.1 130.3 165.6 175.4 186.9 199.5 216.0 250.9 284.0 309.4 314.8 318.4 323.4 86.1 84.1 84.8 85.0 86.9 90.8 93.3 93.6 95 .3 95.3 94.8 94.8 94.7 95.2 96.4 98.5 100.0 102.5 106.0 110 .0 114.1 117.9 125.9 153.8 171,5 182.4 195.1 209.4 236.5 2 7 4.8 304.1 312.3 315.7 322.6 0.9 -0.2 0.2 -0.1 0 .3 0.3 -0,2 -0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 -oa oa 0.0 oa 0.0 oa 0.8 0.4 0,2 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 - 0 .1 0.0 0 .2 0.1 0 .2 0.0 0 .1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 1 .6 -0 .1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0,5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 1 .0 1.1 0 .2 0.5 0.5 0,7 0.7 1.2 2.0 1 .5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.6 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 85,3 84.1 85.2 84.9 88.1 91 .4 93.6 93 .8 95.4 95.0 94.7 94.8 94.7 95.1 96.6 99.0 100.2 102.8 106.5 110.4 115.1 118.7 127.4 162.9 173.1 184.8 197.8 212.5 244.2 2 7 8.8 307.4 312.7 317.1 322.2 OVER 1-MONTH SPANS -0.3 -0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.7 0.0 -0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -oa 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 o0 .a0 0.2 -oa 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 oa oa -oa 0.0 -oa oa 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0 .2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0 .0 0.2 0.3 0)2 o0 .a2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 2.3 o.s 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.3 3.0 1.7 0.6 -0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.1 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.6 1.1 2.0 1.4 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0,2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.3 1.2 3.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.6 1.3 1.0 1.3 -0.2 -0 a 0.4 CHANGE IN PRODUCER -oa oa -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 -0.1 0.2 oa -oa oa 0.0 0.4 0.4 1.1 2.9 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.6 1.0 1.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.2 0.4 0,3 0.9 2,7 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.6 1 a 0.2 0.4 -oa 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 2.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.6 1 .0 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 oa oa 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 oa 0.2 0.5 0.2 oa oa oa 0.6 0.3 0.5 9.4 -2.6 1.4 0.0 1.2 3,9 3.8 -3.5 1.9 -0.5 1.4 2.9 -1 .4 -3.3 3 .1 -0.5 2.1 1.6 -4.1 -2.3 3 a 0.0 3.0 3.1 -0.6 3.0 0.4 -0.9 2.6 -0.6 -1.3 1.5 -0.8 -0.9 1.5 -1.0 0.6 -0.8 2 a 0.0 5.2 3.4 0.9 0.4 -1.3 0.8 -0.6 0.4 1.0 2.9 1.0 3.8 4.3 4.2 4.0 0.4 -0.4 0.4 1.3 2.9 1,0 3.0 4.1 4.1 4.5 -0.4 0.0 -0,6 1,3 3.3 1.0 2.6 3-5 -0.4 0.2 -0.4 1.0 -0.4 0.4 -0.2 1.5- 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.3 0.4 1.8 2 .7 0.6 1.0 + .2 4.3 9.3 30.2 6 .0 6.3 7.7 7.2 13.8 18.7 15.8 0.6 -1.2 2.6 10.7 33.8 1 .4 3 5.0 5.5 5.9 7.7 8.3 15.0 17.7 15.6 0.2 -0.9 3.1 5.2 7.9 8.9 16.1 16.8 13.3 0.4 0.1 3.4 -oa. -oa -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 -oa 0.1 0.0 oa -0.2 -oa 0.2 0.4 '4 0.2 0.3 oa 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 oa 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 oa oa -oa oa 0.3 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.6 0,5 0.6 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.4 -0.3 0.8 0.7 1.0 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 oa 0.3 -0.2 OVER 6-MONTH SPANS 0.5 0.5 0.5 1 .5 0 .2 0.1 -0.2 -0 a -3.9 -0.2 1.4 0.7 6.9 -3.0 0.7 0.9 0.9 1 .5 0.2 -1.0 2.4 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 0.8 1.5 1 a -0.4 0.8 1.1 1.9 3.0 0.8 -0.4 0.6 0.0 1.0 1.2 1 .8 2.2 5.0 3.8 3.5 3.0 3.8 16 0 .. 0 4 3 3.5 9.1 36.7 3.3 7.6 30.9 6.1 8.1 8.6 16.5 12.3 10.3 0.6 1.7 3.0 6.5 7.4 8.6 16.9 9.5 7.9 1 .0 2.2 1.7 6.6 6.5 8.4 17.4 7. 7 5.3 1.1 2.3 0.2 oa 0.6 0.6 0.5 oa 0.2 -oa 0.1 -oa -0.2 0,0 0.0 -oa oa 0.3 0.0 oa 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.9 oa oa oa oa 0.2 oa 0.2 0.2 8.8 -2.7 -3,2 -2.3 -0.2 1.7 3.7 oa -0.2 0.4 -2.5 1.2 -0.9 0.2 -0.5 1 .7 -0 .9 2.6 -1 .6 0.5 -0 . 7 2.4 0.6 0.0 0•8 -0.2 1.1 1.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.8 1.7 2.1 0.8 1 .9 2.5 2.4 -0.3 -0 .4 0.3 -0.3 0.1 1 .2 2.8 3.7 4.7 4.0 5.1 1 .0 3.1 3.1 2.1 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.1 3.0 4.2 7.0 26.4 7.8 21.4 10a 16.9 15.1 12.7 19.0 8.6 24.9 7.5 10.5 33.0 5.7 7.0 6.1 8.5 18.2 8.0 3.7 2.9 3.9 0.5 7,4 5.3 8.5 17.1 8.6 3.0 3.5 3.0 0.4 6.6 5.5 8.3 17.0 9.8 3 .2 3 .0 2 .0 -0.5 6.3 5.9 9.6 20 .4 11 .4 3.7 0.7 1 .6 -0.4 6.9 6 .2 10.8 22.1 13.0 2.9 0 .4 2.1 -0.5 7.6 6.5 12.5 21.0 15.5 2.4 0.5 3a 0.2 1.9 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 2.0 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 3.8 1a -oa -oa oa oa 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 ,0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 oa 0.2 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 oa oa 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.9 1 .9 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 1 .3 1.0 0.6 oa 0.1 oa oa -3.7 -0.1 -1.7 0.6 -1 a -0.2 3.4 2.7 1.0 0.5 6.6 4.3 1.2 2.2 5.5 5.0 0. 4. 1.0 -1.0 -1.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.2 1.3 0.4 -0.6 - 0 .3 -0.3 -0 • 1 2.9 0.5 0.7 1.3 0. 1. 1. -0. -0 . -0. 0.5 0.7 1.6 2.2 2 ,0 2.8 3,7 3.7 3.4 3.8 11.9 24.7 5 .9 © NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user. Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-months changes are pTaced on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 0.0 0 0.2 0.0 0.0 oa 0.9 oa oa oa 0.3 0.1 -oa 0.7 0,0 0.2 -0.2 0 .2 0.6 -4.3 -0.7 2 .4 0.0 5.7 1a -4.1 -1.2 oa ® 2.7 PRICE INDEX, INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES, (AN NUAL RATE, PERCENT) 0.5 -0.2 2.4 4.3 13.1 -2 a 0.4 Annual Dec. -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 (K6 0.3 IV Q Nov. 0.0 -0.4 0.4 0.0 - 0 .1 0.3 -oa 335c. 1951... 1952... 1953 • . , 1954... 1955... 1956... 1957... 1958... 1959... 1960... 1 961 1962,., 1963... 1964... 196 5 . . . 1966 . . . 1967... 1968... 196 9 . . . 19 7 0 . . . 1971.. . 1972 . . . 1973.. , 1974... 1 975 . . . 1976.. . 1977... 1978... 1979... 1980.. . 1981 . . . 1982... 1983.. . 1984... 1985... PRICE INDEX, INDUSTRIAL (PERCENT) 85,3 83.9 85.3 84.9 87.3 91 .0 93.6 93.7 95.4 95.2 94.6 94.6 94.8 95.1 96.6 99.0 100.0 102.5 106.1 110 .2 115.3 118.5 126 . 7 161 .6 172.2 183.8 196.9 211 .4 240.6 2 7 8.2 307.2 313.2 317.3 323.3 III Q Oct. © 0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 oa ! ! CHANGE IN PRODUCER Sept. Aug. COMMODITIES 0.4 0.4 0.2 7!e 8.1 15.0 17.7 14.9 0.4 -0.7 3.0 3.1 4 .4 3.5 9.0 34.5 4.7 6.4 7.3 8.5 16.9 9.8 7.8 0.9 2.1 1.6 1,3 1 .6 1.5 2.3 2.3 3.6 3,3 2.6 2 .6 8'.3 21.6 6 .2 7.0 5.6 8.4 17.4 8.8 3.3 3.1 3.0 0.1 oa 0.5 -0.2 0.9 1 .8 2.2 1 .3 3.9 4.5 4.7 4.3 2.5 5.0 19.7 9.6 7 .1 6.9 6.2 11 . 0 21 .2 13.3 3.0 0.5 2.3 -0.2 .0.0 6!? 9.0 17.6 12.4 7,3 1 .2 1 .7 1. (MAY 1985) 103 C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Nov. Oct. Dec. IQ II Q III Q IV Q Annual IS OH PRIVATE NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS AVERAGE FOR PERIOD (1977-100) 1960 . . . 1964.. . 196 5 . . . 1966.. . 1967... 1968. . . 1969. . . 19 7 0 . . . 1971... 1972... 1973... 1974 . . . 1975... 1976.. . 197?... 1979... 1980... 1981 . . . 1982.. . 1983.. . 1984.,. 198!}.,. 86.6 88.1 90.0 91 .2 93.1 94.6 95.1 96.9 100.2 102 .2 99,3 97.0 97.6 99.9 100.9 99.9 94.5 93.0 93,2 94.8 94.8 86.7 88.5 89. V 91.5 93.? 94.9 95.1 9 7.4 100.:! 102.0 98.7 97.2 98.0 99.5 100.8 99.5 94.2 92.9 93.1 95.3 94.8 341C, 87,0 88.8 89 . 8 91 .7 93.5 94.6 95.2 97.6 100.5 101 . 5 98.4 97.7 98,2 99.4 100.8 98.9 93.8 92.8 93.5 95.1 95.0 87.0 88.7 90.0 92.0 93.6 94.7 95.0 97.9 100.9 101 .6 98.5 97.4 98.6 99,4 101 .0 98.5 93.4 93.0 93.7 94.8 95.3 87.1 88.8 90.1 92.1 93.8 95.0 95.3 98.2 101 . 0 101.1 98.6 97,8 98.9 99.6 100.6 97.7 93.2 92.8 93.5 94.8 94.8 87.2 88.7 90.3 92.2 94.0 95.2 95.5 98.1 100.9 101 .4 99.0 98.0 98.7 99.6 100.4 97,3 93.2 92.7 92.8 94.8 95,1 87.5 89.0 90.3 92.4 93.9 95.1 95.7 98.3 101 .2 101 .7 98.5 97.3 98.9 99.8 100.4 97.0 93.7 92.1 92.8 94.8 95.1 87.9 89.3 90.0 92.2 94.0 95.0 96.2 98.5 101.3 100.2 98.2 97.8 99.3 99.8 100.3 96.7 93.6 92.4 93.2 94.4 94.1 88.1 89.4 90.4 92.2 94.2 95.0 96.3 98.8 101,6 100.7 97,9 97.6 99.4 100.1 100.3 96.5 93.4 92.1 93.3 94,5 94.2 87.9 89.7 90.3 92.7 94.3 95,3 95.9 98.8 101 .9 100.3 97,7 97.5 99.4 100.6 100.1 95.9 93.4 92.1 93.4 94.8 94.0 88.0 89.6 90.6 92,6 94.4 95.5 96.2 98.8 101.8 100.1 97.3 97.6 99.6 100.3 99.8 95.7 93.3 92,5 93.7 94.7 94.4 88.2 89.5 91 .0 92.7 94.6 95.1 96.2 99.5 102.3 99.9 97.4 97.4 99.8 100.4 99.9 95.6 92.9 92.4 94.5 94.9 94.7 86.8 88.5 89.8 91 . 5 93.3 94.7 95.1 97.3 100.3 101.9 98.8 97.3 97.9 99,6 100.8 99.4 94.2 92.9 93.3 95,1 94.9 CHANGE IN INDEX OF REAL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS (PERCENT) 87.1 88.7 90.1 92.1 93.8 95.0 95.3 98.1 100.9 101,4 98.7 97.7 96.7 99.5 100.7 9 7,8 93.3 92.8 93.3 94.8 95.1 87.8 89.2 90.2 92.3 94.0 95.0 96.1 98,5 101.4 100,9 98.2 97.6 99.2 99.9 100.3 96.7 93.6 92.2 93.1 94,6 94.5 88,0 89.6 90. & 92.7 94.4 95.3 96.1 99.0 102.0 100.1 97.S 97.5 99.6 100.4 99.9 95.7 93.2 92.3 93.9 94.8 94.4 63.7 65. A 68.6 70.7 73 .2 75 .9 76 . 9 78.0 80.1 81 . § 83 .2 85 .1 86 . 4 87,4 89.0 90.2 92.1 93.9 95.0 95.6 98,2 101 .2 101 .1 98.3 97.5 98.9 99.9 100.4 97.4 93.6 92.6 93.4 94,8 94.7 AVERAGE FOR PERIOD 1 953 . . . 1954 . . . 1956.. . 1958... 1963 . , . 1964... 1965... 1966.. . 196?., . 1968... 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0,2 0,3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0,1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0,'A -O.S 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0 0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0,2 0.2 =0 2 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 -0 3 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0 .3 0.2 -0 2 "0.2 0,0 0.1 0.2 -0.1 - 0 .4 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.1 = 0.1 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0,2 0.0 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0,1 0.6 0.3 0.4 0,2 0.4 -0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0,1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 .3 0.4 0,0 0 .2 -0.1 0.4 0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 -0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0 .2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.0 -0 2 -0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 0 .3 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0 5 0.1 0.5 0.2 -0,1 -0.1 0 3 0.4 0.1 0.3 0 .2 0.3 0 3 -0.5 -0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0,3 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 O.S 0.3 0.5 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0 1 0.1 -0.3 0,5 0.2 0.1 19/5... 0,0 0.7 0.7 -0 1 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.3 19/7... 1 9? 8... 1979... 1980.. . 1981 . . . 0.1 0.6 0.0 -1.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0,1 -0,1 0.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 0.2 0.3 -0.3 -0.7 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0 .2 0.1 -0.3 0,5 -0.7 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0,1 0.4 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.5 -0.2 -0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 1983... 1984.,, 1935... 0.3 -0.1 0.5 0.0 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.5 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 -0.5 -1.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 1970... 1971.. . 1972 . . . 19 73 341C, -o!s CHANCE IN IN DEX OF RE AL AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS OVER 6-MONTH SPANS (ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT) AV8KASE FOR PERIOD 1951 . . . 1952... 19 53 . . . 19S4 . , . 1955 . . . 19S6 . . , 1957. . . 1958, . , 1959. , . 1960... 1961 . . . 1962 . . . 1963 . . . 1965.. . 1966.. . 196 7. . . 1968.. . 1969... 1970... 19 71 1972... 19 7 3 . . . 1974 19 7 5 . . . 1976... 1977,.. 19 7 8 . . . 19 7 9 . . . 1980... 1981 . . . 1982... 1983... 1984... 1985... o!o * 2 2 2.0 0.5 1.7 0.7 1.8 1.2 1.0 1.8 2.1 0.9 -0.6 4 1 4.3 -0.6 2.5 1.3 -0.4 4 2 4.6 - 1 .3 2.8 1.2 0.8 4 0 2.8 1 .8 1 .1 1 .3 2 9 2.1 -0 .8 1.1 2.5 0.1 0.7 -4.1 -5.3 -1.0 2.2 2.4 0.3 1.2 2.7 -0.4 0.1 -5.2 -5.0 -0.5 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.7 2 .6 -0.3 -1.0 -5.7 -1.7 -1.9 -0.7 0.1 0.7 -0.7 2.2 0.0 0.8 =3.2 -5.2 -0.9 3.4 3.1 1.2 • 2 6 1 , 7 0.6 1 .7 1 .7 0.2 2.3 2 3 2,3 2 5 1 .3 1 .3 1 1 1 .4 0.8 2.3 1 .2 2.7 0.5 -1.1 -5.5 -1.2 -1.1 0.1 -1.9 -1.5 -0.2 2.4 1.3 - 1 .0 -4.7 -0.8 -1.5 -0.4 - 1 .1 -1.8 2.2 ? ' ;.3 ).7 .8 .1 1.9 1 .5 1 4 2.4 2.1 1 5 1 .1 3.3 1 7 1.0 2.7 .4 .3 .9 L.3 .1 l.Q 1 .3 -0.1 1.6 0 .0 2.5 0.2 2.7 0.4 2.9 1 .1 -0.1 .9 .5 2.7 1 .9 1 .3 -0.1 3.9 .3 .6 .4 - .8 -5.1 0.0 -1.8 -0.6 -0.1 -2.9 -0.4 1.5 1.3 -1.7 -4.0 0.2 -0.6 0.4 -0.3 -1.0 -1,2 2.2 1.6 -0.9 -3.4 -0,7 -0.6 3.6 0.0 -0.8 0.6 2.1 2 .4 -1.1 -5.0 -1.6 2 .4 4.2 -0.1 - 1 .5 0.5 0.3 2.1 -1.6 -5.1 - 1 .6 1.6 4.6 0,8 1 .2 1 .2 0.1 1 .4 -2.9 -5.5 -1.3 3.1 3.7 1.1 0.6 0.5 2.5 - 0 .1 0.5 -4.2 -5.2 -0.8 2.2 2 .1 0. 7 NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 1977, Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placid on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages of the centered changes. 104 1 ,5 1,2 2 4 1.7 0.8 1 .8 1.6 0,7 2.0 2 5 2.2 0.6 2.6 0.5 -1.0 -5.3 -1.2 -1.5 -0.3 -1.0 -0.9 2 2 2.0 1.1 1.2 1,3 0.8 1.8 15 1.5 2,7 22 1.4 0.2 2.7 2.0 1,0 -0.4 1.8 1.8 »1.5 -4,2 »0.2 -1.0 1.1 -0.1 -1.6 0.8 0.8 2,0 -1.9 -5.2 -1.5 2.4 4,2 0.6 0,1 I .7 1 .5 2 .1 1.7 0.7 1.6 2.3 -2 4 -2 1 0.4 1 .9 1 .0 -1.0 -4.7 -2,0 -0.2 1 .8 0.4 -0.4 (MAY 1985) G. Experimental Data and Analyses (Itov.) (Mar) P T Implicit price deflator, gross nonfarm business product (Index: 1977=100) TU Components of BCD series 26— I (Index: 1977-100) 157.6 155.9 155.9 157.1 151.9 152.7 153.8 155.2 • Implicit price deflator, gross nonfarm business product, Q (index: 1977=100) 156.3 157.3 159.0 160.1 158.3 157.6 159.5 160.0 pl62.3 pl62.9 1985 I Q.... II Q... Ill Q.. IV- Q — — — Unit labor cost, all persons, nonfarm business sector, Q (index: 1977 = 100) 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 — 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 -J Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars (ratio) Inventory-sales ratios in 1972 dollars 2 Year and month — — — — — — — - i 180 1984 I Q.... II Q... Ill Q.. IV Q... Ratio scale - I 180 Unit labor cost, all persons, nonfarm business sector 1983 I Q.... II Q... Ill Q.. IV Q... (Nov.) T 11111111*1*1:111 III III III III Components of BCD series 26 x Year and quarter (Jan.) (July) (July) P T P Manufacturing (Ratio) Merchant wholesalers (Ratio) Retail trade 80 Arithmetic scale -l 2.2 (Ratio) 2.1 1984 Jan Feb.... Mar.... Apr May.... June... 1.71 1.72 1.72 1.74 1.74 1.75 1.30 1.34 1.33 1.34 1.30. 1.29 1.29 1.33 1.36 1.34 1.32 1.30 July... Aug Sept... Oct.... Nov Dec 1.77 1.76 1.80 1.80 1.78 1.74 1.32 1.34 1.37 1.37 1.37 1.36 1.33 1.34 1.33 1.36 1,35 1.34 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1985 Jan Feb.... Mar Apr May.... June... rl.78 1.78 pi. 77 (NA) rl.36 rl.38 pi.37 (NA) rl.37 rl.37 pi. 38 (NA) 1.3 1.2 1.5 July... Aug Sept... Oct.... Nov Dec 1.4 1.3 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 NOTE: The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; and "NA11, not a v a i l a b l e . x Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor S t a t i s t i c s . a Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis. 105 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly. Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes Net contribution to index Basic data Series title (and unit of measure) LEADING INDICATORS 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (hours). . 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs1 (thous.). . . 8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (bil. dol.). . 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (percent) . . . . 12, Net business formation (index: 1967=100) 20, Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.) 29. New private housing units authorized by local building permits (index: 1967=100). . . 36. Change in inventories2 on hand and on order in 1972 dol., smoothed (ann. rate, bil. dol.) . 99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed2 (percent) 19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10) 106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (bil, dol.) 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (ann. rate, percent) 910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators3 (index: 1967=100) ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (thous.) 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1972 dollars (ann. rate, bil, dol.) 47. Industrial production (index: 1967^100) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (mil. dol.) 920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident indicators3 (index: 1967=100) LAGGING INDICATORS 91, Average duration of unemployment1 (weeks) 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1972 dollars (ratio) 62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing-actual data as a percent of trend (percent) . 109, Average prime rate charged by banks (percent) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972 dollars (mil, dol.) 95, Ratio s consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (percent). . . 930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 3 (index: 1967=100) Apr. 1985 Mar. 1985 Feb. 1985 Jan. 1985 Jan. to Feb. 1985 Feb. to Mar. 1985 Mar. to Apr. 1985 40 .6 r40 .0 40.4 p40.3 -0.46 0 .31 -0 .09 378 402 389 387 -0.17 0;09 0.02 39.19 37.83 r36.99 p38.O2 -0.1 7 -0.11 0.16 47 48 46 44 0 .04 -0.08 -0.10 rll7.8 rll8.4 rll5.2 p l l 5 .1 0 .07 -0 .38 -0 .01 12.80 18.56 rl5.89 pl4.47 0 .81 - 0 .34 -0.24 r l 3 0 .4 rl29.5 rl38.8 135.9 - 0 .02 0 .21 - 0 .08 r3.22 r8.9O pl2.52 0.32 0.20 NA r-0.53 -0 .81 r - 0 .97 -0.64 -0 .11 - 0 .06 0 .16 1 71 . 6 1 180.88 179.42 180 . 6 2 0 .33 -0.05 0.05 949.4 954.8 r953.3 P949.1 0.18 -0.05 -0.17 13.9 r9.4 pl3.1 NA -0 .24 0.19 rl66.4 rl67.6 rl67.7 pl67.4 0.72 0.06 -0.18 96,045 r96,161 r96,514 p96,731 0.10 0.30 0.24 rl ,200,7 r l ,202 .3 rl ,205.8 pi , 2 0 8 . 4 0 .07 0.15 0 .14 rl65.1 rl65.3 rl65.8 pl65.4 0 .03 0.08 -0 .09 rl78,633 rl79,086 p i 79 , 3 9 6 NA 0.06 0.04 NA rl57.7 rl57.8 rl58.4 P158.6 0.06 0 .38 0.13 15.3 15.9 15.9 16.1 -0.28 0.00 -0 .13 r l .57 rl .58 pi .58 89.4 88.9 88.6 10.61 rl24,912 rl4.70 rl24.6 10 . 5 0 rl25,928 10 . 5 0 rl27,O90 rl4.93 pl5.11 rl25.5 r l 2 6 .5 NA NA p88.2 10 . 5 0 pl26 ,924 NA pl26.0 0 .13 -0 .18 0 .00 -0.11 -0 .08 0 .00 0 .21 0.24 0 .88 0 .69 0 .72 0.80 NA NA -0 .22 0.00 -0.05 NA -0 .40 NOTE: The net c o n t r i b u t i o n of an i n d i v i d u a l component i s t h a t component's share in the composite movement of the group. I t is computed by d i v i d i n g the standardized and weighted change f o r the component by the sum of the weights f o r the a v a i l a b l e components and d i v i d i n g t h a t r e s u l t by the index s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n f a c t o r . See the February 1983 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 108-109) or the 1984 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 67-68) f o r the weights and s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n f a c t o r s . NA, not a v a i l a b l e , p, p r e l i m i nary. r s r e v i s e d , e, e s t i m a t e d . J T h i s s e r i e s i s i n v e r t e d i n computing the composite index; i . e . , a decrease i n t h i s s e r i e s i s considered an upward movement. This s e r i e s i s a weighted 4-term moving average ( w i t h weights 1 , 2 , 2 , 1 ) placed on the t e r m i n a l month of the span. Figures in the net c o n t r i b u t i o n columns are percent changes i n the index. The percent change i s equal (except f o r rounding d i f f e r e n c e s ) to the sum of the i n d i v i d u a l components' c o n t r i b u t i o n s plus the t r e n d adjustment f a c t o r . The trend adjustment f a c t o r f o r the leading index i s 0.139; f o r the c o i n c i d e n t index, - 0 . 1 7 5 ; f o r the lagging index, 0.018. 2 3 106 Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns Actual Devidata ations from for reference current peaks cycle 19. Index of stock prices Percent -1+50 • 190 +40 #180 +30 160 + 20 150 + 10 • • • 130 120 • no -20 -30 -40 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries Actual data (percent) uJl 100 • 90 FROM 7/81 ACTUAL DATA Actual data for specific current troughs cycle ations from AND YEAR SERIES 19 1941-43=10 19 20 18.6 17.0 153.12 151 .08 6/84 7/84 21 22 23 24 27.3 28.6 27.6 28.8 164.42 166.11 164.82 166.27 8/84 9/84 10/84 11/84 25 26 27 28 2 7.4 32.9 40.1 38.9 16 4 . 4 8 171.61 180.88 179.42 12/84 1/85 2/85 3/85 70 29 30 39.9 41 . 7 180.62 183.02 4/85 5/85 60 Percent MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH SPEC. PROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH 7/82 DATA YEAR SO SERIES 19 1941-43=10 140 -10 • Devi- REF. TROUGH 40 > 150 23 24 40.0 38.1 153.12 151 . 0 8 6/84 7/84 25 26 27 28 50.3 51 . 9 50.7 52.0 164.42 166.11 164.82 166.27 8/84 9/84 10/84 11/84 29 30 31 32 50.4 56.9 65.4 64.0 164.48 171.61 180.88 179.42 12/84 1/85 2/85 3/85 33 34 65.1 67.3 180.62 183.02 4/85 5/85 MONTHS FROM REF. TROUGH 18 19 20 CURRENT MONTH ACTUAL AND DATA YEAR SERIES 32 PERCENT REPORTING 70 66 60 i[ 30 • 140 20 • 130 10 • 120 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries 5/84 6/84 7/84 21 22 23 24 54 58 52 50 8/84 9/84 10/84 11/84 25 26 27 28 45 47 48 46 12/84 1/85 2/85 3/85 44 4/85 » 90 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH DATA YEAR 5/82 - 40 - 30 - 20 - 1 10 . . . I n n , I . M M n i 111I1111111111111111111111 li 1111 -12 -6 0 + 6 +12 +18 +24 +30 24 SERIES 32 PERCENT REPORTING 40 70 5/84 25 26 27 28 36 30 24 28 66 60 54 58 29 30 31 32 22 20 15 1 7 52 50 45 47 10/84 11/84 12/84 1/85 33 34 35 18 16 14 48 46 44 2/85 3/85 4/85 6/84 7/84 8/84 9/84 +36 Months from reference troughs NOTE: - 20 - 10 -1 0 -U -6 • 30 • 70 • 30 + 6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 Months from specific troughs For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts'* on p. 106 of the January 1985 issue. 107 G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued N 1111 IM111II1111111111II1TIIIII11ITI11II11M f1MI Deviations from reference peaks 73. Industrial production, durable manufactures Actual data for current cycle • 170 1970 • 150 Devi- DEVIMONTHS FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH REF. ACTUAL AND FROM TROUGH DATA YEAR 7/81 ations from 73. Industrial production, durable manufactures SERIES 73 1967=100 specific troughs Actual data for current eycle 'c,c,c| 18 19 20 6.8 7.9 9.5 153 .3 154.9 157.2 5/84 6/84 7/84 21 22 23 24 9.9 9.4 9.4 9.7 157.8 157.1 157.1 157.6 8/84 9/84 10/84 11/84 30 25 26 27 28 9.7 9.7 10.0 10.7 157.6 12/84 1 5 7 . 6 1/85 158.0 2/85 159.0 3/85 25 29 10.3 158.4 4/85 Peresnt 35 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH FROM ACTUAL AND SPEC. TROUGH YEAR 11/82 DATA • 160 M5S M50 20 #140 - - SERIES 73 1967=100 0 - 5 — - 1 0 — -15 -20 15 18 19 20 2 8 . 5 . 153 .3 5 / 8 4 29.8 154.9 6/84 31 . 8 157.2 7/84 21 22 23 24 32.3 31.7 31.7 32.1 157.8 157.1 157.1 157.6 8/84 9/84 10/84 11/84 25 26 27 28 32.1 32.1 32.4 33.3 157.6 157.6 158.0 159.0 12/84 1/85 2/85 3/85 29 32.8 158.4 4/85 11 35 10 • 130 M20 DEVIMONTHS FROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH FROM ACTUAL AND REF. TROUGH YEAR 7/81 DATA 74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures SERIES 74 1967=100 74. Industrial production, nondurable manufactures I C.L.L | 18 19 20 7.7 8.5 8.8 179.9 181 . 3 181 . 8 5/84 6/84 21 22 23 24 8.7 7.9 7.4 7.5 181 . 7 180 .3 179.4 179.6 8/84 9/84 10/84 11/84 25 26 27 28 7.5 7.5 7.1 7.1 179.6 179.6 178.9 178.9 12/84 1/85 2/85 3/85 29 7.0 178.8 4/85 Pereent 35 7/84 • 20b 30 • 200 25 • 190 MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH SPEC. FROM ACTUAL AND TROUGH 5/82 DATA YEAR 20 -12 -6 ln.nl I 0 + 6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +J6 15 24 16.1 179.9 5/84 25 26 27 28 17.0 17.3 1 7.2 16.3 181 . 3 181 . 8 181 . 7 180.3 6/84 7/84 29 30 31 15.7 15.9 15.9 179.4 179.6 179.6 10/84 11/84 12/84 32 15.9 179.6 33 34 35 15.4 178.9 15.4 17 8 . 9 15.4 178.8 10 • 170 • 165 • 160 1/85 2/85 3/85 4/85 NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of the January 1985 issue. 108 • 175 8/84 9/84 Months from reference troughs • 185 • 180 SERIES 74 1967=100 ln.nl • 195 -J 0 -12 - 6 0 + 6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 Months from specific troughs G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued 86. Nonresidential fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars Deviations from reference .peaks Actual data for current cycle + 25 • 220 DEVIQRTRS. FROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR. AND ACTUAL REF. FROM TROUGH 111/81 DATA YEAR 2 3 4 SERIES 86 ANN. RATE B I L . DOL 165.3 11/83 -7.2 172.6 111/83 -3.1 IV/83 184.5 3.5 5 6 7 8 8.5 13.9 17.6 20.0 1111 i i 1111 111 n111\11iij111riMiii111111111111 n111\11iij F 11111 86. Nonresidential fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars Deviations from specific troughs Actual data for current cycle 1 9 3 . 3 1/84 202.9 1 1 / 8 4 209.5 111/84 2 1 3 . 8 IV/84 +20 20.8 215.2 1/85 35 +15 • 200 DEVIQRTRS. FROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR. AND ACTUAL FROM SPEC. TROUGH DATA YEAR IV/82 SERIES 86 ANN. RATE B I L . DOL. 2.4 165.3 11/83 6.9 172.6 111/83 14.2 1 8 4 . 5 IV/83 • 190 29.7 32.4 193.3 1/84 202.9 11/84 209.5 111/84 2 1 3 . 8 IV/84 33 . 3 215.2 19.7 -5 #160 Percent QRTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR. REF. FROM AND ACTUAL TROUGH 111/81 DATA YEAR +60 89. Residential fixed investment in 1972 dollars Percent >65 + 50 + 40 +30 2 3 4 SERIES 89 ANN. RATE B I L . DOL 53.4 24.8 11/83 5 7 . 2 111/83 33.6 . 57.8 35.0 IV/83 5 6 7 8 41 . 6 42.1 40.4 38.3 60.6 60.8 60.1 59.2 + 20 80 # 6 5 70 • 1/84 11/84 111/84 IV/84 50 50 40 + 10 QRTRS. DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT QRTR. FROM AND SPEC. ACTUAL TROUGH 1/82 DATA YEAR -10 • 35 -20 -I I I I H I I H I I I I I I I I I I I I I II I I I I I I I I II I -30 • 30 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 SERIES 89 ANN. BIL. 53 47.5 57 58.0 57 59.7 67.4 60 RATE DOL .4 11/83 .2 III/83 .8 IV/83 .6 1/84 68.0 66.0 63.5 64.1 .8 .1 .2 .4 60 60 59 59 11/84 111/84 IV/84 1/85 0 + 6 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36 30 20 Median 10 _J 0 I I 11 11 IM 11HI 11M 11i M 11 I 11 I I I l l I I I I I 11 I I I 11 M 111 -12 -6 0 + 6 +12 +18 + 2 4 +30 + 3 6 Months from specific troughs Months from reference troughs 60 60 1/85 • of these charts, 165 15 1/85 89. Residential fixed investment in 1972 dollars For an explanation • 20 -J - 1 5 MOTE: 205 10 -10 -6 • 25 1975 -12 215 30 +10 +5 • see "How to Read Charts" on p. 106 of the January 1985 issue. 109 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Agricultural products, exports Anticipations and intentions Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl., Consumer sentiment, index Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl New orders, manufacturing, Dl Prices, manufacturing, Dl Prices, retail trade, Dl Prices, wholesale trade, Dl Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl Sales, manufacturing and trade, DL, Automobiles Imports of automobiles and parts Personal consumption expenditures Current issue Series <paee numbers) number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) 11/84 604 61 970 58 974 975 971 976 978 977 972 973 24 38 22 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 67 76 65 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 76 5/85 5/85 1/84 1/85 1/85 1/85 1/85 1/85 1/85 1/85 1/85 23 23 20 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 616 55 56 22 92 65 11/84 9/84 56 39 B Balance of payments—See International transactions. Bank loans—See Business Loans. Bank rates—See Interest rates. Bank reserves Free reserves ..„. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve.. Bonds—See Interest rates. Borrowing -See Credit. Budget—See Government. Building—See Construction. Building permits, new private housing Business equipment, industrial production Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl Business failures, current liabilities Business formation, index Business incorporations Business inventories—See Inventories. Business loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars loans outstanding, current dollars loans outstanding, net change Business saving „ Canada—See International comparisons, Capacity utilization Manufacturing Materials Capital appropriations, manufacturing Backlog Newly approved Newly approved, Dl Capital equipment, producer price index Capital investment-See Investment, capital, Capital investment commitments, Cl Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars Cash flow, corporate, current dollars Civilian labor force—See also Employment. Employment r Employment as percent of population Labor force , Unemployed Coincident indicators, four Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded.. Commercial and industrial loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars '. Loans outstanding, net change Compensation—See also Income. Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm business sector Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national income Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm business sector Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm economy.... Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm economy Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction Composite indexes Coincident indicators Four coincides, index Four coineiders, rate of change Ratio to lagging indicator index Lagging indicators Six laggers, index Six laggers, rate of change Leading indicators Capital investment commitments Inventory investment and purchasing Money and financial flows Profitability Twelve leaders, index Twelve leaders, rate of change See notes at end of index. 110 93 94 29 76 61 970 14 12 13 33 33 13,25 24 24 38 33 12,23 23 72 72 67 67 67 76 72 65 65 4/85 4/85 7/84 8/84 5/85 5/85 2/85 12/84 12/84 35 35 24 12 23 23 34 21 21 101 72 112 295 15,35 35 32 46 73 73 71 82 5/85 5/85 5/85 11/84 32 32 32 26 82 84 20 20 64 64 3/85 3/85 14 14 97 11 965 333 24 24 37 48 66 66 75 86 2/85 2/85 2/85 5/85 22 22 22 51 914 35 34 11 29 29 60 70 70 7/84 9/84 9/84 5 26 26 442 90 441 37 51 17 51 18,51 89 62 89 62,89 3/85 2/85 3/85 2/85 9 9 9 9 920 920c 951 940 9 10 39 36 11 23 60 5 '74" 60 66 1/84 1/84 12/84 7/84 12/83 "5 5 21 101 72 112 15,35 35 32 73 73 71 5/85 5/85 5/85 32 32 32 345 280 49 45 87 82 12/84 10/84 46 46 64 30,47 70,83 9/84 46 346 49 88 12/84 46 340 49 87 8/84 5 341 348 349 49 50 50 87 88 88 5/85 12/83 12/83 5 53 53 53 19 63 3/85 11 920 920c 940 10 39 11 60 1/84 1/84 7/84 5 930 930c 10 39 60 1/84 1/84 5 914 915 917 916 910 910c 11 11 11 11 10 39 60 60 60 60 60 7/84 7/84 7/84 7/84 1/84 1/84 5 5 5 5 5 "5" . . .... Current issue Series <»»«« n u i f l t e r s > number Charts Tables (See complete Mtles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Construction Building permits, new private housing Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial buildings Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales Gross private fixed investment Nonresidential constant dollars Presidential! percent of GNP Nonresidential structures, constant dollars Residential, constant dollars Residential, percent of GNP Housing starts Consumer finished goods, producer price index Consumer goods and materials, new orders Consumer goods, industrial production Consumer installment credit Credit outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Consumer prices—See also International comparisons. AH items Food Consumer sentiment, index Consumption expenditures—See Personal consumption expenditures. Contract awards, Defense Department Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dollars Corporate bond yields Corporate profits—See Profits. Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes. Credit Borrowing, total private '. Business loans Loans outstanding, constant dollars Loans outstanding, current dollars Loans outstanding, net change Consumer installment credit Credit outstanding Net change Ratio to personal income Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate Credit outstanding, percent change Mortgage debt, net change Crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Crude materials, producer price index D Debt-See Credit. Defense and space equipment, industrial production Defense Department Gross obligations incurred Gross unpaid obligations Net outlays Personnel, civilian Personnel, military Prime contract awards Defense products Inventories, manufacturers' New orders, manufacturers' Shipments, manufacturers' Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Defense products industries, employment Defense purchases, goods and services Defense purchases, percent of GNP Deficit—See Government. Deflators-See Price indexes. Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans Deliveries, vendor performance Diffusion indexes Business expenditures, new plant and equipment Capital appropriations, manufacturing Coincident indicators Employees, manufacturing and trade Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls Industrial production Industrial production, components Initial claims, State unemployment insurance Inventories, manufacturing and trade Lagging indicators Leading indicators New orders, durable goods industries New orders, durable goods industries, components New orders, manufacturing Profits, manufacturing Profits, manufacturing and trade Raw industrials, spot market prices Raw industrials, spot market prices, components Sales, manufacturing and trade Selling prices, manufacturing Selling prices, retail trade Selling prices, wholesale trade Stock prices, 500 common stocks Workweek, manufacturing Workweek, manufacturing, components Disposable personal income—See income. •. Historical data (issue date) Series description C) 2$ 13,25 67 7/84 9 69 23 24 66 67 12/83 9/84 21 17 86 248 87 89 249 28 334 8 75 25 47 25 25 47 25 48 12,21 22 67 83 67 67 83 6? 86 64 65 9/84 10/84 9/84 9/84 10/84 3/85 5/85 3/85 8/84 40 40 40 40 40 24 51 15 12 66 113 95 39 35 32 15,35 33 73 72 73 72 6/84 6/84 9/84 11/83 33 33 33 34 320 322 58 49 49 22 84,95 84 65 4/85 4/85 1/84 49 49 20 525 53 90 11/84 55 20 12,23 66 12/84 21 10 116 23 34 66 73 12/84 8/83 21 35 110 32 72 11/84 101 72 112 15,35 35 32 73 73 71 5/85 5/85 5/85 32 32 32 66 113 95 39 Ill 33 35 32 15,35 33 13,32 32 73 72 73 72 72 71 6/84 6/84 9/84 11/83 6/84 5/84 33 33 33 34 31 31 98 331 28 48 69 85 3/85 4/85 51 50 557 54 91 11/84 517 543 580 578 577 525 53 53 54 55 55 53 90 90 91 91 91 90 1/84 11/84 3/85 1/84 1/84 11/84 55 55 56 56 56 55 559 548 588 561 570 564 565 54 53 54 54 55 55 55 91 90 91 91 91 91 91 6/84 6/84 6/84 6/84 7/84 9/84 9/84 17 15 17 15 5 43 43 39 32 33 12,21 72 64 11/83 2/85 34 1? 970 965 951 974 963 966 38 37 36 38 36 37 5/85 2/85 12/84 1/85 7/84 8/84 23 962 975 952 950 964 36 38 36 36 37 i/85 "i 37 971 960 972 967 38 37 38 37 973 976 978 977 968 961 38 38 38 38 37 36 ' 76 75 74 76 74 75 78 74 76 74 74 75 77 76 75 76 75 79 76 76 76 76 75 74 77 1/85 12/84 12/84 6/84 22 5 37 5 12 5 5 15 1/85 5/85 1/85 1/85 '37 37 37 25 i/85 37 37 37 37 25 5 1/85 1/85 1/85 6/83 7/84 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources ot Series," following this index) Earnings—See Compensation. Employment and unemployment Civilian labor force Defense Department personnel, civilian Defense Department personnel, military Employee hours in nonagroltural establishments Rate of change Total Employees in goods-producing industries Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl Employees on nonagricultural payrolls . Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, Dl... Employment, civilian., Employment, defense products industries Employment, ratio to population Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Initial claims, State unemployment insurance Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, 01 Overtime hours, manufacturing Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age... Participation rate, females 20 years and over Participation rate, males 20 years and over Part-time workers for economic reasons Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age Unemployed, females 20 years and over Unemployed, full-time workers Unemployed, males 20 years and over Unemployment, average duration Unemployment, civilian Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over Unemployment rate, insured. Unemployment rate, total Workweek, manufacturing Workweek, manufacturing, components Workweek, manufacturing, Dl Equipment—See Investment, capital. Exports—See International transactions. Federal funds rate Federal Government—See Government. Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from... Final sales in constant dollars Financial flows, Cl Fixed investment—See Investment, capital. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product Food—See Consumer prices. Foreign trade—See International transactions. France—See International comparisons. Free reserves Goods output in constant dollars Government budget Federal expenditures Federal receipts . .. Federal surplus or deficit State and local expenditures... State and local receipts. State and local surplus or deficit. .. . Surplus or deficit, total , Government purchases of goods and services Federal, constant dollars Federal, current dollars Federal, percent of GNP, National defense ,.. National defense, percent of GNP State and local, constant dollars State and local, current dollars State and local, percent of GNP Total, constant dollars..,, Total, current dollars Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted price index , Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit Gross national product GNP, constant dollars...., GNP, constant dollars, differences. GNP, constant dollars, percent changes GNP, current dollars , . . GNP. current dollars, differences GNP, current dollars, percent changes GNP, ratio to money supply M l .... Goods output in constant dollars Implicit price deflator Per capita GNP, constant dollars Gross private domestic investment—See Investment, capital. H Help-wanted advertising in newspapers Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Hours, manufacturing Average weekly hours Average weekly hours, components Average weekly hours, Dl Average weekly overtime Current issue Series ( P W numbers) number Charts Tables 441 578 577 51 55 55 48c 48 40 974 41 963 442 570 90 46 60 5 962 21 453 452 451 448 42 446 445 447 444 91 37 44 45 43 1 39 17 17 38 961 14,17 36 51 55 17 16 16 12,16 36 16 51 51 51 51 17 51 51 51 51 89 91 91 - 6i' 62 76 62 74 89 91 62 61 61 61 74 61 89 89 89 89 62 89 89 89 89 62 15,18 18,51 62,89 18 18 18 62 62 62 12,16 61 77 II 74 36' 119 34 94 213 917 33 40 11 Historical data (issue date) Series description C) 3/85 1/84 1/84 9 56 56 12/84 12/84 7/84 1/85 7/84 7/84 3/85 7/84 2/85 2/85 2/85 1/85 1/85 7/84 3/85 3/85 3/85 3/85 2/85 3/85 3/85 3/85 3/85 2/85 2/85 2/85 3/85 2/85 7/84 *5 5 37 5 5 9 5 9 9 9 8 8 5 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 5 7/84 "5 10/83 72 80 60 311 4/85 10/84. 7/84 35 38 5 9/84 4/85 9/84 502 501 500 512 511 510 298 52 52 52 52 52 52 46 90 90 90 90 90 90 83 9/84 9/84 9/84 9/84 9/84 9/84 11/84 53 53 53 53 53 53 48 263 262 265 564 565 267 266 268 261 260 43 43 47 55 55 43 43 47 43 43 81 81 83 91 91 81 81 83 81 81 10/84 10/84 10/84 9/84 9/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 43 311 68 48 30 84 70 9/84 9/84 49 28 50 50b 50c 200 19,40 63,80 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 5/85 9/84 9/84 10/84 38 38 38 38 38 38 30 14 38 38 107 49 310 217 31 20 48 40 80 80 80 80 80 71 63 84 80 46 60 16 16 61 61 2/85 2/85 9 9 1 12,16 5 36 16 61 77 74 61 7/84 961 21 7/84 7/84 'V 5 39' 40 200b 200c Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Housing Housing starts ... Housing units authorized by local building permits.. Residential GPDI, constant dollars Residential GPDI, percent of GNP . . Implicit price deflator, GNP' Imports—See International transactions. Income Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm business sector Compensation of employees Compensation of employees, percent of national income Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm business sector Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Disposable personal income, constant dollars Disposable personal income, current dollars Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dollars Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm economy Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm economy Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Interest, net Interest, net, percent of national income National income. Personal income, constant dollars Personal income, current dollars Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars Rate of change Total Personal income, ratio to money supply M2 Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Rental income of persons with CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent of national income Wage and benefit decisions, first year Wage and benefit decisions, lite of contract Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction Incorporations, new businesses Industrial commodities, producer price index Industrial production—See also International comparisons. Business equipment Consumer goods Defense and space equipment Durable manufactures Nondurable manufactures Total Total, components Total, Dl Total, rate of change Industrials, raw, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index Installment credit-See Credit. Insured unemployment Average weekly initial claims Average weekly initial claims, Dl Average weekly insured unemployment rate Interest, net . Interest, net, percent of national income Bank rates on short-term business loans. . Corporate bond yields.... Federal funds rate Mortgage yields, secondary market Municipal bond yields Prime rate charged by banks. Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields Intermediate materials, producer price index... International comparisons Consumer prices Canada France ... Italy Japan United Kingdom . United States. . ... West Germany ... Industrial production Canada . . . . . France Italy . OECD, European countries . United Kingdom United States West Germany , Current issue Series (page numbers) number Charts Tables 67 67 67 83 28 29 89 249 25 13,25 25 47 310 48 345 280 49 45 87 82 Historical data (issue date) Series description 3/85 7/84 9/84 10/84 24 24 40 40 C) 9/84 12/84 10/84 46 46 64 30,47 70,83 9/84 46 346 95 286 49 15,35 45 88 73 82 12/84 9/84 11/84 46 33 26 287 225 224 47 40 40 83 80 80 11/84 10/84 10/84 26 11 11 227 40 340 49 341 652 651 288 289 220 52 223 49 57 57 45 47 45 19 40 87 93 93 82 83 82 63 63 5/85 8/84 8/84 11/84 11/84 10/84 9/84 9/84 5 57 57 47 47 46 11 11 51c 51 108 282 39 14,19 31 45 63 71 82 9/84 9/84 4/85 10/84 11 30 47 283 284 47 45 83 82 10/84 10/84 47 47 285 348 349 47 50 50 11/84 12/83 12/83 47 53 53 53 13 335 19 23 48 3/85 12/84 5/85 11 21 51 8/84 8/84 11/84 8/84 8/84 8/84 12 12 13 12 12 12 10/84 8/84 63 65 85 24 67 22 65 54 91 20 63 20 63 47 14,20,58 63,94 .... 78 966 37 75 47c 39 76 75 557 73 74 1/85 1/85 25 25 61 74 62 82 83 1/85 1/85 3/85 11/84 11/84 8 8 8 47 47 35 34 34 34 34 35 34 34 73 73 72 73 73 73 72 73 2/85 8/83 10/83 10/83 10/83 7/83 8/83 8/83 5/85 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 50 59 59 59 59 59 49 59 96 95 96 95 95 84,95 95 4/84 4/84 4/84 4/84 4/84 4/85 4/84 60 61 61 61 60 49 61 94 94 94 94 94 94 14,20,58 63,94 58 94 5/84 5/84 5/84 5/84 5/84 5/84 8/84 5/84 59 59 59 59 58 58 12 59 967 23 37 28 5 962 45 288 289 12,16 36 18 45 47 67 116 119 118 117 109 114 115 332 733 736 737 738 732 320 735 723 726 727 728 721 722 47 725 79 75 8/84 8/84 58 58 58 58 58 58 See notes at end ol index. 111 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Current issue Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources ot Series," following this index) Stock prices Canada France Italy , Japan United Kingdom United States West Germany International transactions Balanee Balanee Exports, Exports, on goods and services on merchandise trade excluding military aid merchandise, adjusted, excluding military Exports Exports Exports Exports ot of of of domestic agricultural products., goods and services, constant dollars goods and services, current dollars goods and services, excluding military Exports of nonelectrical machinery... Imports, general Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military Imports of automobiles and parts Imports of goods and services Imports of goods and services, constant dollars ...,. Imports ot goods and services, current dollars Imports ot petroleum and petroleum products Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad Net exports of p o d s and services, constant dollars Net exports of goods and services, current dollars Net exports ot goads and services, percent ol GNP Inventories Business inventories, change, constant dollars Business inventories, change, current dollars Business inventories, change, percent of GNP Defense products, manufacturers' Finished goods, manufacturers' Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade.... Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl Manufacturing and trade, book value.,.. Manufacturing and trade, change in booh value Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars Manufacturing and trade, Dl Manufacturing and trade, on hand and on order, change Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' , Series number Capital investment commitments, Cl , Construction contracts, commercial and industrial Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery and equipment sales Gross private domestic investment Business inventories, change—See Inventories. Fixed investment, constant dollars Fixed investment, current dollars Nonresidential, constant dollars Nonresidential, percent of GNP Business expenditures, new Business expenditures, new, Dl,. Contracts and orders, constant dollars Contracts and orders, current dollars Investment, foreign Income on foreign investment in the United States Income on U.S. investment abroad I t a l y - See International comparisons. Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description C) 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 96 96 96 96 96 96 96 1/84 1/84 1/84 1/84 1/84 1/84 1/84 63 63 63 63 63 25 63 667 622 602 618 604 256 252 668 606 612 620 616 669 257 253 614 652 651 57 57 56 57 56 44 44 57 56 56 57 56 57 44 44 56 57 57 93 93 92 93 92 82 82 93 92 92 93 92 93 82 82 92 93 93 8/84 8/84 11/84 8/84 11/84 10/84 10/84 8/84 11/84 11/84 8/84 11/84 8/84 10/84 10/84 11/84 8/84 8/84 57 57 56 57 56 44 44 57 56 56 57 56 57 44 44 56 57 57 44 47 82 83 10/84 10/84 44 44 26,42 42 47 54 27 15,27 11 27 26 27 68,81 81 83 91 68 68 60 68 68 68 76 9/84 10/84 10/84 6/84 6/84 11/84 7/84 11/84 11/84 11/84 1/85 40 40 40 17 17 17 5 17 17 17 37 68 3/85 17 68 6/84 17 68 6/84. 17 66 66 75 60 66 2/85 2/85 2/85 7/84 12/83 22 22 22 5 21 10/84 255 250 251 30 245 247 559 65 77 915 71 31 70 975 36 78 38 97 11 965 914 38 13,26 27 26 24 24 37 11 23 9/84 243 242 86 248 42 42 25 47 81 81 67 83 10/84 10/84 9/84 10/84 40 40 40 40 87 89 249 241 240 25 25 25 47 42 42 67 67 67 83 81 81 9/84 9/84 9/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 40 40 40 40 40 40 Nonresidential producers' durable equipment, constant dollars Nonresidential structures, constant dollars Residential, constant dollars Residential, percent of GNP Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars New orders, nondefense capital goods, constant dollars New orders, nondefense capital goods, current dollars Plant and equipment Charts "umbers) 743 746 747 748 742 19 745 Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers', change Investment, capital Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl tpage 12/84 12/84 61 970 20 10 24 38 12,23 23 67 76 66 66 5/85 5/85 12/84 12/84 23 652 651 57 57 93 93 8/84 8/84 57 57 23 21 21 Japan -See International comparisons. Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product... Labor cost per unit of output, business sector... Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing Actual data Actual data as percent of trend Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business.,. Labor force—See Employment. Lagging indicators, six Composite index Composite index, rate of change Diffusion index 68 63 30 30 70 70 9/84 11/84 28 28 62 62 26 30 15 29 70 70 70 4/85 4/85 1/85 28 28 28 930 930c 952 10 39 36 60 1/84 1/84 12/84 5 910 910C 10 39 60 74' 5 Leading indicators, twelve Composite index Composite index, rate of change See notes at end ot index, 112 1/84 1/84 5 Curre(it SoriP* iillP (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Diffusion index Liabilities of business failures Liquid assets, change in total Loans-See Credit. , 'SSUe numb€rs) Series ^ number Charts Tables 950 14 104 36 33 31 Historical data (issue date) 74 72 71 12/84 2/85 4/85 Series description (*) 5 34 29 M Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers'inventories Materials and supplies on hand and on order, manufacturers' inventories, change Materials, capacity utilization rate Materials, new orders for consumer goods and Materials prices-See Price indexes. Merchandise trade—See International transactions. Military-See Defense. Money and financial flows, Cl Money supply Liquid assets, change in total Money supply M l , constant dollars Money supply M l , percent changes Money supply M2, constant dollars . . . . Money supply M2, percent changes Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 Mortgage debt, net change Mortgage yields, secondary market . . . . Municipal bond yields N National defense—See Defense. National Government—See Government. National income—See Income. New orders, manufacturers' Capital goods industries, nondefense, constant dollars Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dollars Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dollars Defense products Durable goods industries, constant dollars Durable goods industries, current dollars Components Diffusion index New orders, manufacturing, Dl Nonresidential fixed investment Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars Structures, constant dollars Total, constant dollars Total, percent of GNP 0 Obligations incurred, Defense Department Obligations unpaid, Defense Department OECD, European countries, industrial production Orders-See New orders and Unfilled orders. Outlays, Defense Department Output-See also Gross national product and Industrial production. Goods output, constant dollars Labor cost per unit of Actual data Actual data as percent of trend Per hour, business sector Per nour, nonfarm business sector Ratio to capacity, manufacturing Ratio to capacity, materials Overtime hours, manufacturing P Participation rates, civilian labor force Both sexes 16-19 years of age Females 20 years and over Males 20 years and over Personal consumption expenditures Automobiles DuraWe goods, constant dollars Durable goods, current dollars Nondurable goods, constant dollars Nondurable goods, current dollars Services, constant dollars Services, current dollars Total, constant dollars Total, current dollars Total, percent of GNP Personal income—See Income. Personal saving Personal saving rate Petroleum and petroleum products, imports Plant and equipment—See also Investment, capital. Business expenditures, new Business expenditures, new, 0) Contracts and orders, constant dollars Contracts and orders, current dollars Population, civilian employment as percent of 78 27 68 6/84 38 84 8 26 20 12,21 68 64 64 6/84 3/85 3/85 917 11 60 7/84 104 105 85 106 102 107 108 33 118 117 31 31 31 13,31 31 31 31 32 34 34 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 71 73 73 4/85 4/85 4/85 4/85 4/85 5/85 4/85 5/84 10/83 10/83 29 29 29 30 29 30 30 31 35 35 27 24 8 23 23 12,21 66 66 64 12/84 12/84 3/85 15 15 15 20 12,23 66 12/84 n 10 548 7 6 23 53 21 21 12/84 6/84 3/85 3/85 t\ 15 15 15 964 971 37 38 66 90 64 64 77 75 76 6/84 1/85 'is 88 87 86 248 25 25 25 47 67 67 67 83 9/84 9/84 9/84 10/84 37 40 40 40 40 517 543 721 53 53 58 90 90 94 1/84 11/84 5/84 55 55 58 580 54 91 3/85 49 20 63 9/84 62 62 370 358 82 84 21 30 15 50 50 20 20 16 70 70 88 88 64 64 61 4/85 4/85 1/85 1/85 3/85 3/85 7/84 28 28 52 52 14 14 5 453 452 451 51 51 51 89 89 89 3/85 3/85 3/85 9 9 9 55 233 232 238 236 239 237 231 230 235 22 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 47 65 80 80 81 81 81 81 80 80 83 9/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 10/84 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 292 293 614 46 46 56 82 83 92 11/84 11/84 11/84 48 48 56 61 970 20 10 90 24 38 12,23 23 17 67 76 66 66 62 5/85 5/85 12/84 12/84 2/85 23 23 21 21 9 17 14 15 ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) Current issue , . , ; . « (page numbers) number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description 49 49 4/85 4/85 49 49 84 70 9/84 9/84 1/85 49 38 28 4/85 5/85 4/85 5/85 5/85 5/85 3/85 50 51 50 51 51 50 51 1/85 1/85 3/85 3/85 25 25 Series title (See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of Series," following this index) C) Current issue Series < p a « e number$) number Charts Tables Historical data (issue date) Series description (*) Price indexes Consumer prices—See also International comparisons. All items Food Deflator; Fixed-weighted, gross domestic business product Implicit price deflator, GNP Labor cost, price per unit of, nonfarm business Producer prices All commodities Capital equipment Crude materials < Finished consumer goods Industrial commodities Intermediate materials Sensitive crude and intermediate materials Raw industrials, spot market prices Components Diffusion index Spot market index Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Sensitive materials prices, percent change Stock prices—See also International comparisons. 500 common stocks, 500 common stocks, Dl Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business Prices, selling Manufacturing, 01 Retail trade, Dl Wholesale trade, 01 . Prime contract awards, Defense Department Prime rate charged by banks Producer prices—See Price indexes. Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI Production—See Gross national product and Industrial production. Productivity Output per hour, business sector Output per hour, nonfarm business sector Profitability, Cl »,. Profits Corporate profits after tax Constant dollars Current dollars With IVA and CCAdj, constant dollars With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars Corporate profits before tax With IVA and CCAdj With IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income.... Manufacturing and trade, Dl Manufacturing, Dl Per dollar of sales, manufacturing . . . Profitability, Cl Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income ., Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAdj to corporate domestic income Proprietors' income with Wft and CCAdj Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent of national income Raw industrials, spot market prices Components .; Diffusion index Spot market index Rental income of persons with CCAdj Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent of national income Reserves, free Residential fixed investment, constant dollars... Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP.... Residential structures—See Housing. Retail sales, constant dollars...'. Retail sales, current dollars., 320 322 311 310 26 84,95 330 333 331 334 335 332 98 48 48 48 48 48 48 28 85 86 85 86 85 86 69 967 23 37 28 79 75 69 98 99 28 13,28 976 978 97? 525 109 51 25 13,28 37 29 75 70 1/84 6/83 1/85 25 25 28 38 38 38 53 35 76 76 76 90 73 1/85 1/85 1/85 11/84 7/83 37 37 37 55 35 Salaries—See Compensation. Sales , Final sales, constant dollars Machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl , Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade... Retail sales, constant dollars Retail sales, current dollars Saving Business saving Government surplus or deficit Gross saving Personal saving : Personal saving rate Selling prices—See Prices, selling Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change in producer prices Sensitive materials prices, percent change Shipments of defense products..: Spot market prices, raw industrials Components ..... Diffusion index Spot market index State and local government—See Government. Stock prices—See also International comparisons. 500 common stocks 500 common stocks, Dl , Surplus—See Government. 10/84 213 69 57 56 973 77 59 54 24 14,22 22 38 15,27 22 22 67 65 65 76 68 65 65 9/84 11/84 11/84 1/85 11/84 4/85 4/85 17 17 17 37 17 20 20 295 298 290 292 293 46 46 46 46 46 82 83 82 82 83 11/84 11/84 11/84 11/84 11/84 26 48 48 48 48 98 99 588 28 13,28 54 69 69 91 3/85 3/85 6/84 51 25 17 967 23 '37' 28 79 75 69 i/85 1/85 25 25 19 968 13,28 37 69 75 1/84 6/83 25 25 114 115 34 34 72 73 8/83 8/83 35 35 91 60 5 962 15,18 16 12,16 36 62 61 61 74 2/85 2/85 1/85 1/85 . 9 9 8 8 446 445 447 444 37 51 51 51 51 18.51 89 89 89 89 62,89 3/85 3/85 3/85 3/85 2/85 9 9 9 9 9 44 45 43 18 18 18 62 62 62 2/85 3/85 2/85 9 8 9 561 96 25 54 21 21 91 64 64 6/84 6/84 6/84 15 15 15 107 108 32 31 31 12,21 71 71 64 5/85 4/85 2/85 30 30 17 1 12,16 7/84 961 36' 61 77 74 9/84 Treasury bill rate Treasury bond yields... 1/85 1/85 7/84 52 52 5 69 69 69 69 9/84 9/84 9/84 9/84 26 26 26 26 45 47 38 37 29 11 29 82 83 76 75 70 60 69 ; 11/84 11/84 1/85 5/85 1/85 7/84 9/84 26 26 37 37 27 5 26 29 45 47 70 82 9/84 10/84 26 47 370 358 916 50 50 11 18 16 28 28 29 29 286 287 972 960 15 916 22 SI 282 283 10/84 967 23 284 37 28 45 79 75 69 82 285 93 89 249 47 33 25 47 83 72 67 83 11/84 4/85 9/84 . 10/84 47 35 40 40 59 54 22 22 65 65 4/85 4/85 20 20 1/85 1/85 10/84 47 25 25 U Unemployment Duration of unemployment, average Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment Initial claims for unemployment insurance Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl , Number unemployed Both sexes 1619 years of age Females 20 years and over Full-time workers . . . . Males 20 years and over Total unemployed , ,. Unemployment rates 15 weeks and over Insured unemployment Total . ... Unfilled orders, manufacturers' Defense products Durable goods industries Durable goods industries, change United Kingdom—See International comparisons. Velocity of money GNP to money supply M l , ratio Personal income to money supply M2, ratio,. . Vendor performance, slower deliveries W Wages and salaries—See Compensation. West Germany—See International comparisons. Wholesale (producer) prices—See Price indexes. Workweek, manufacturing Average weekly hours.,..;. Components Diffusion index ". 7/84 NOTE: CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GNP, gross national product; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. • The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears. 113 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES Series are listed below according to the sections of this report in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect relationships or order among the series. " M " following a series title indicates monthly data; " Q " indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter). To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are referred to by number; Source 1 —U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Source 2 —U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Following the source for each series is an indication of the pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers for each series. I-A. Composite Indexes 910, Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes series 1, 5, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (23,66) 11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q) .—The Conference Board (24,66) 12. Index of net business formation (M). Source 1; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (12,23,65) 13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (23,65) 33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (M). Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home Loan Bank Board; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (32,71) 34. Corporate net cash flow in current dollars ( Q ) . Source 1 (29,70) 35. Corporate net cash flow in 1972 dollars (Q). Source 1 (29,70) 36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1972 dollars (MV Sources 1 and 2 (13,26,68) 14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (33,72) 37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3 15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2 and Federal Trade Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (29,70) 38. Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order, book value (M).-Source2 (26,68) (18,51,62,89) 16. Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (28,69) 39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and over (EOM). American Bankers Association (33,72) 18. Corporate profits after tax in 1972 dollars (Q).— Source 1 (28,69) 40. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goodsproducing industries (M),—Source 3 (17,62) 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks ( M ) . Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96) 41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).- Source 3 (14,17,62) 42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (M).-Source 3 (17,62) 917. Composite index of money and financial flows (includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis (12,23,66) 920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).—Source 1 (10,39,60) 21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing ( M ) . — Source 3 (16,61) 930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total corporate domestic income (Q).—Source 1 (29,69) 106,111) (M).-Source 1 (10,39,60) 914. Composite index of capital investment commitments (includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (11,60) 915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).^Source 1 (11,60) 916. Composite index of profitability (includes series 19,26,80) ( M ) . - S o u r c e l (11,60) 940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index (series 930) (M).—Source 1 (11,60) 23. Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981, this series may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.) (28,69,79) I-B. Cyclical Indicators 1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing (M).—Source 3 (12,16,61,77) 5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis 24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2 (23,66) 25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M).-Source 2 (21,64) 26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3 43. Unemployment rate (M).-Source 3 (18,62) 44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (M).-Souree3 (18,62) 45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (18,62) 46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).-The Conference Board (16,61) 47. Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4 (14,20,39,58,63,78,94) 48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments (M).-Source3 (17,39,61) 49. Value of goods output in 1972 dollars (Q). Source 1 (20,63) 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).- Source 1 (19,39,40,63,80) 51. Personal income less transfer payments in 1972 dollars (M).-Source 1 (14,19,39,63) 52. Personal income in 1972 dollars (M).—Source 1 (29,70) (19,63) 6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Source 2 (21,64,77) 27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (23,66) 53. Wages and salaries in 1972 dollars, mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Source 1 (19,63) 7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (21,64) 28. New private housing units started (M).—Source 2 (25,67) 8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1972 dollars, consumer goods and materials industries (M) .—Sources 1 and 2 (12,21,64) 29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits (M).-Source 2 (13,25,67) (12,16,61) 9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (23,66) 114 30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars <Q).- Source 1 (26,42,68,81) 31. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories, book value (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (26,68) 32. Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management Association of Chicago (12,21,64) 54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M). Source 1 (22,65) 55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).-Souree 1 (22,65) 56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (22,65) 57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (M),-Sources l a n d 2 (14,22,85) 58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q,M). University of Michigan, Survey Research Center (22,65) 59. Sates of retail stores in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (22,65) TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources l t 3, and The Conference Board (16,61) Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars, producers' durable equipment (Q).— Source 1 (25,67) 61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment by U.S. nonfarm business (Q).—Source 1 (24,67) 89. 62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (15,30,70) 90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (M).—Sources 1 and 3 (17,62) 63. Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).—Source 3 (30,70) 91. Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).— Source 3 (15,18,62) 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).—Source 1 (30,47,70,83) 93. Free reserves (M).—Source 4 94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve Gross private residential fixed investment in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) (33,72) 65. Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods, book value (EOM).-Source 2 (27,68) 95. 66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).— Source 4 (35,73) Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (15,35,73) 96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).—Source 2 (21,64) 97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board (24,66) 98. Percent change in producer prices for 28 sensitive crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1 and 3 (28,69) 99. Change in sensitive materials prices (M).--Sources 1, 3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (13,28,69) 101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (15,35,73) 67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source 4 (35,73) 68. Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross domestic product in 1972 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).—Source 1 (30,70) 69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business construction expenditures (M).—Source 2 (24,67) 70. Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1972 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (27,68) (M).-Source4 71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, book value (EOM).-Sourcesl and 2 (27,68) 72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (35,73) (33,72) 102. Change in money supply M2 (M).-Source 4 104. Change in total liquid assets (M).—Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) 73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M).-Source4 (20,63) 105. Money supply M l in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1 and 4 * (31,71) 74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (M).-Source 4 (20,63) 106. Money supply M2 in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (13,31,71) 75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M).-Source 4 (22,65) 107. Ratio, gross national product to money supply M l (Q).—Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) 76. Index of industrial production, business equipment (M)-Source 4 (24,67) 108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).— Sources 1 and 4 (31,71) 77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2 (15,27,68) 109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source 4 (35,73) 110. Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Q).-Source 4 (32,72) 111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding (M).—Sources 1, 4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (13,32,72) 78. Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies on hand and on order, book value (EOM).—Source 2 (27,68) 79. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (29,69) 80. Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (29,69) 81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with inventory Valuation and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate domestic income (Q).— Source 1 (29,70) 82. Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing (M).— Source 4 (20,64) 84. Capacity utilization rate, materials (M).—Source 4 (20,64) 85. Change in money supply Ml (M)-Source 4 113. 87. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars, structures (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) 950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components (M).-Source 1 (36,74) 951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator components (M).—Source 1 (36,74) 952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components (M).-Source 1 (36,74) 960. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about 600 companies (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (35,75) 961. Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3 (36,74,77) 962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).—Source 1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (36,74) 963. Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls, 172-186 industries (M).—Source 3 (36,74) 964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2 (37,75,77) 965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations in 1972 dollars, 17 manufacturing industries (Q).—The Conference Board (37,75) 966. Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 industries (M).-Sources 1 and 4 (37,75,78) 967. Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw industrial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. (37,75,79) 968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks, 46-82 industries (M).-Source 1 and Standard & Poor's Corporation (37,75) 970. Diffusion index of expenditures for new plant and equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, 22 industries (Q).—Source 1 (38,76) 971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).— Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1, 4, Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (32,71) series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) Net change in consumer installment credit (M).— Source 4 (32,72) 973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and 114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M).-Source 4 (34,72) 115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).—U.S. Department of the Treasury (34,73) 116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Treasury " (34,73) 117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).—The Bond Buyer (34,73) 118, Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).— U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration (34,73) 119. Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4 (31,71) 86. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (25,67) 112. (31,71) I-C. Diffusion Indexes (34,72) trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).— Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 115 TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued 976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing— about 600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale tradeabout 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.) (38,76) 243. Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (42,81) 289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q) (47,83) Source 1 245. 290. Gross saving (Q).-Source 1 (46,82) 292. Personal saving (Q). Source 1 (46,82) Change in business inventories in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 247. Change in business inventories as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 293. Personal saving rate (Q) .—Source 1 (46,83) 295. Business saving (Q).-Source 1 (46,82) 248. Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 298. Government surplus or deficit (Q). Source 1 (46,83) 1 (47,83) 978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 249. Gross private residential fixed investment as a II—B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 400 businessmen reporting (Q).=Dun & Bradstreet, 1 (47,83) 310. Implicit price deflator for gross national product Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the 250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1 (48,84) source,) (38,76) (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) 311. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).-Source 1 (48,84) 251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of II A. National Income and Product gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 320. Consumer price index for all urban consumers 30. Change in business inventories in 1972 dollars (Q).— 252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars ( M ) , Source 3 (49,59,84,95) Source 1 (26,42,68,81) (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) 322. Consumer price index for all urban consumers, 50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source 253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars food (M).-Source 3 (49,84) 1 (19,39,40,63,80) (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) 330. Producer price index, all commodities (M). Source 64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national 255. Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars 3 (48,85) income (Q).-Source 1 (30,47,70,83) (Q).—Source 1 (44,82) 331. Producer price index, crude materials for further 200. Gross national product in current dollars ( Q ) . ^ 256. Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars processing (M).—Source 3 (48,85) Source 1 (40,80) (Q).—Source 1 (44,82) 332. Producer price index, intermediate materials, sup213. Final sales in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (40,80) 257. Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars plies, and components (M).-Source 3 (48,86) (Q).-Source 1 (44,82) 217. Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars 333. Producer price index, capital equipment ( M ) . (Q).-Sources 1 and 2 (40,80) 260. Government purchases of goods and services in Sources (48,86) 220. National income in current dollars (Q).—Source 1 (45,82) 223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source 1 (40,63) 224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).— Source 1 (40,80) current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 261. Government purchases of goods and services in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (43,81) 262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q),—Source 1 (43,81) 334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods (M), Source 3 (48,86) 335. Producer price index, industrial commodities (M).-Source 3 (48,85) 263. Federal Government purchases of goods and services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (43,81) 340. Index of average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3 (49,87) 227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars (Q).—Sources 1 and 2 (40,80) 265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q). Source 1 (47,83) 341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3 (49,87) 230. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars (Q).—Source 1 (41,80) 266. State and local government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q)-Source 1 (43,81) 345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,87) 231. Personal consumption expenditures in 1972 dollars (Q).- Source 1 (41,80) 267. State and local government purchases of goods and services in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source 1 (43,81) 232. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, durable goods (Q).- Source 1 (41,80) 268. State and local government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all employees, nonfarm business sector (Q). Source 3 (49,88) 225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . — Source 1 (40,80) 233. Personal consumption expenditures in 1972 dollars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,80) 280, Compensation of employees (Q).—Source 1 235. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q), Source 1 (45,82) 236. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, nondurable goods (Q).-Source 1 (41,81) 237. Personal consumption expenditures in current dollars, services (Q).--Source 1 (41,81) 238. Personal consumption expenditures in 1972 dollars, nondurable goods (Q).—Source 1 (41,81) (45,82) 283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1 (47,83) 284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment (Q).-Source 1 (45,82) 239. Personal consumption expenditures in 1972 dollars, services (Q).- Source 1 (41,81) 285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment as a percent of national income (Q). • Source 1 (47,83) 240. Gross private domestic investment in current dollars (Q).-Source 1 (42,81) 286. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).— Source 1 (45,82) 241. Gross private domestic investment in 1972 dollars ( Q ) . - Source 1 (42,81) 242. Gross private domestic fixed investment in current dollars (Q). Source 1 (42,81) 116 348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average first year changes (Q).-Source 3 (50,88) 349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average changes over life of contract (Q)-Source 3 (50,88) 358. Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3 (49,88) 370. Index of output per hour, all persons, business sector (Q).-Source 3 (49,88) II—C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment 37. Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3 (18,51,62,89) 441. Civilian labor force (M).—Source 3 (51,89) 442. Civilian employment (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valua- 444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over tion and capital consumption adjustments as a (M). - -Source 3 (51,89) percent of national income (Q).—Source 1 (47,83) 445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over (M).~Source3 (51,89) 288. Net interest (Q).—Source 1 (45,82) TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES—Continued 446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 447. Number unemployed, full-time workers ( M ) . — Source 3 (51,89) 448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasorts (M).-Source3 (51,89) 451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years and over (M).—Source 3 (51,89) 452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years and over (M).-Source 3 (51,89) 453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes 16-19 y^ars of age (M)-Source 3 (51,89) II—D. Government Activities 500. Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q).-Source 1 (52,90) 501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source 1 (52,90) 570. Employment, defense products industries (M).— Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (55,91) 577. Defense Department military personnel on active duty (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (55,91) 578. Defense Department civilian personnel, direct hire employment (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports (55,91) 580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions and military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (54,91) 543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financiaf Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military (Q).-Sou r e e l (57,93) 622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) 651. Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1 565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross national product (Q).-Source 1 (55,91) 723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).— Statistics Canada (Ottawa) (58,94) 725. West Germany, index of industrial production (M), Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (58,94) 726. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (58,94) 728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—-Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo) (58,94) 557. Index of industrial production, defense and space equipment (M).-Source 4 (54,91) 564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).—Source 1 (55,91) 722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).-Central Statistical Office (London) (58,94) II—E. U.S. International Transactions 652. Income on foreign investment in the United States (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) 561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products (EOM).- T Source2 (54,91) 721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris) (58,94) 727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lstituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome) (58,94) 548. Manufacturers' new orders, defense products (M).— Source 2 (53,90) 559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products, book value (E0M).-Source2 (54,91) 320. United States, consumer price index for all urban consumers (M).-Source 3 (49,59,84,95) 588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).— Source 2 (54,91) 510. State and local government surplus or deficit ( Q ) - 602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments ( M ) . Source 1 (52,90) Source2 (56,92) 511. State arid local government receipts (Q).—Source 604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).— 1 (52,90) Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 512. State arid local government expenditures (Q).— 606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).-Source Source 1 (52,90) 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic 517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred Analysis (56,92) (M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the 612. General imports (M).-Source 2 (56,92) Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) (M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (56,92) 525. Defense Department prime contract awards for work performed in the United States (M).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (53,90) 47. United States, index of industrial production ( M ) . Source4 (14,20,39,58,63,78,94) (57,93) 668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1 (57,93) 669. Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1 (57,93) II—F. International Comparisons 19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation (13,28,59,69,96) 732. United Kingdom, consumer price index ( M ) . Department of Employment (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 735. West Germany, consumer price index ( M ) . - Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 736. France, consumer price index (M). Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 737. Italy, consumer price index (M).—Istituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,96) 738. Japan, consumer price index (M).- -Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (59,95) 742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-Central Statistical Office (London) (59,96) 743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Statistics Canada (Ottawa) (59,96) 745. West Germany, index of stock prices ( M ) . • Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden) (59,96) 746. France, index of stock prices (M) .-Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris) (59,96) 747. Italy, index of stock prices ( M ) . - Banca d'ltalia (Rome) (59,96) 748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Bank of Japan (Tokyo) (59,96) Superintendent of Documents U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, DX. 20402 OFFICIAL BUSINESS Penalty for Private Use $300 FIRST-CLASS MAIL POSTAGE & FEES PAID USGPO PERMIT No. G-26