Full text of Business Conditions Digest : May 1975
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This report was prepared in the Statistical Indicators
Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication
areBarry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and
review,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of
basic data. (Telephone 301-763-7106)
The cooperation of various government and private
agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the
list of series and sources at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general
guidance of a technical committee established by the
Office of Management and Budget. The committee
consists of the following persons:
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Rogers C. B. Morton, Secretary
James L. Pate, Assistant Secretary
for Economic Affairs
Social and Economic Statistics Administration
Edward D. Failor, Administrator
Edgar R. Fiedler, Chairman
Department of the Treasury
Joseph W. Duncan, Office of Management and Budget
Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisers,
Executive Office of the President
George Jaszi, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Department of Commerce
J. Cortland Peret, Federal Reserve Board
Julius Shiskin, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Department of Labor
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
personal, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER 's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Morris R. Goldman, Deputy Director
Beatrice N. Vaccara, Associate Director for National
Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
Subscription price, including supplements, is $55.25 a year ($13.85 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are $4.35. Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign
airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below).
This monthly report brings together many of the economic
time series found most useful by business analysts and
forecasters. Its predecessor. Business Cycle Developments,
emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of
business conditions and was based largely on the list of
leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Some other approaches commonly used by students of
economic conditions include econometric models and
anticipations and intentions data. The econometric model
concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships
among consumption, private investment, government, and
various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of
businessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of the
content of Business Cycle Developments has been retained in
this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of
other approaches have been added to make it more generally
useful to those concerned with an evaluation of current
business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section
of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not to
be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis or any other government agency of any
particular approach to economic analysis. This report is
intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report have
been published by their source agencies. A series finding
guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and data
sources, is shown at the back of this report.
enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable to the Sup.
tendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, W
ington, D.C. 20402.
BCD
New Features and Changes for This Issue
iii
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons
How to Read Charts
How to Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
MAY 1975
Data Through April
Series ES1 No. 75-5
1
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
5
PART I. CHARTS
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7
B8
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services . .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
D6
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components . . .
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components . . .
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Economic Process and Cyclical T i m i n g
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade . .
Fixed Capital Investment
I nventories and I nventory I nvestment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Selected Indicators b y T i m i n g
Composite I ndexes
NBER Short List
Actual and Potential Gross National Product . . .
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Rates of Change
20
23
25
28
30
33
37
39
44
46
48
49
54
56
58
60
61
62
63
65
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the
transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this
periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through
September 1, 1975.
66
67
68
PART II. TABLES
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11
n
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7
Gross National Product
National and Personal I ncome
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services . .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income
69
69
70
70
71
71
71
71
72
72
73
C1 I Aggregate Series
C2 I Diffusion Indexes
84
84
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D3
D4
D5
D6
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
86
87
89
90
92
94
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade . .
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Selected Indicators b y T i m i n g
Composite I ndexes
74
76
77
78
79
81
83
Actual and Potential GNP
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
95
96
97
99
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
103
103
104
PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See December 1974 issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See November 1974issue)
B. Current Adjustment Factors (See April 1975 issue)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series (See "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide")
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970 (See February 1975issue)
F. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators (See April 1975 issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series (See April 1975 issue)
105
106
srs are invited to submit comments and
itions concerning this publication.
sss them to Feliks Tamm, Statistical
itors Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20233
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent find-
1. The Composite index of 12 leading indicators in both
Lnal (series 811) and reverse trend adjusted (series 810)
has been replaced by a new index. The new index is the
b of several changes expected to result from a comprehenreview of cyclical indicators begun in September 1972.
sdic reviews of the indicators are necessary because of
economic developments. This review by the Bureau of
Analysis (BEA) is the first since 1966. It was directj Professor Victor Zarnowitz (Graduate School of Business,
srsity of Chicago) under contract with BEA and in collaborawith the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
Lous reviews were conducted by the NBER.
The new index includes only four of the series in the old
K (Average workweek, Index of net business formation, Index
smmon stock prices, and Index of new building permits),
series in the new index (3 — Layoff rate and 32 — Vendor
srmance), while not new to BCD, were not included in the old
t; and one series (10 — Contracts and orders for plant and
pment), which was included in the old index in current
irs, has been deflated (1967 dollars) for inclusion in the
Index. The other five series in the new index are new to
Money balance (Ml), 1967 dollars; Percent change in total
Ld assets; Net change in inventories on hand and on order,
dollars; New orders for consumer goods and materials, 1967
irs; and Percent change in sensitive prices (WPI, crude
rials excluding food and feeds).
Background information on the composition and construction
le new index is provided in an article (see page v) by
Bssor Zarnowitz and Dr. Charlotte Boschan of the NBER. It
Ld be noted that the charts in this article employ the
sed NBER chronology of cyclical reference dates for the
-World War II period. Appendixes to this article provide
rmation on timing classification, construction of composite
ices, and descriptions and historical data for component
3s not included in the previous composite index.
(Continued on page iv.)
June issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
ase on June 30.
ings of economic
research, newly avail-
able time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in piacemem of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.
2. The old composite indexes of leading indicators (series 810 and 811)
have been removed from the regular chart and table sections of BCD, However,
they will be shown in appendix G each month for the rest of this year. The
presentation in appendix G of the current-dollar and nonmonetary components of
the old index has been discontinued.
3. The seasonally adjusted Consumer price indexes (series 782 and 783)
and Wholesale price indexes (series 751 said 752) and the seasonally adjusted
percent change in CPI, all items (series 781c) and in WPI industrial commodities (series 55c) have been revised for the period 1970 to date. These
revisions reflect the source agency's new seasonal adjustment of the basic
data for these series. The revised data are shown in the charts for the
entire period affected and in the tables for 1973 to date. Figures for the
period prior to 1973 will be shown in a subsequent issue.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Prices and
Living Conditions.
4-. The series on productivity and costs (series 63, 74-5, 74.6, 770 and
858) have been revised for the period 194-7 to date. These revisions reflect
the source agency's adoption of Gross domestic product (rather than Gross
national product) as the basis for computing data on output per man-hour and
the inclusion of improved estimates of farm and nonfarm proprietor man-hours.
In addition, series 770, which is expressed in real (1967) units, is
revised for the period 1970 to date to reflect the new seasonal adjustment
of the" CPI deflator. (See item 3, above.) The series on Real compensation
of employees, private nonfarm economy (series 74-6) does not reflect revisions
in the deflator. Revised data for this series, based on the revised CPI data,
will be shown as soon as possible.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Productivity
and Technology.
5. The series on Real average hourly earnings (series 741) and Real
spendable average weekly earnings (series 859) have been revised from 1970
to date to reflect the new seasonal adjustment of their CPI deflators.
(See item 3, above.) These revisions are shown graphically for the entire
period affected and in the tables for 1973 to date. Figures for the period
prior to 1973 will be shown in a subsequent issue.
6. Monthly data for the series on Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans (series 39) are now available from the source agency and will
henceforth be shown in BCD. The monthly statistics are available beginning
with January 1975 and will be published by the source agency on a quarterly
basis — i.e., at about the middle of each quarter, monthly data for each
month of the previous quarter will become available.
7. The series on Change in money supply plus time deposits at bank
and nonbank institutions (series 103) has been revised for the period 1959
to date. This revision reflects the source agency's incorporation of data
for credit union shares into the basic statistics for this series. Further
information concerning this revision may be obtained from the Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Division of Research and Statistics,
Banking Section.
IV
Cyclical Indicators: An Evaluation and New Leading Indexes
by Victor Zamowitz and Charlotte Boschan
In September 1972, the Bureau of Economic Analyst (BEA) initiated a new
comprehensive study of cyclical indicators.' One broad objective of the project
was to analyze a large collection of economic time series so as to asses their past
and prospective usefulness as aids in the interpretation of current and prediction
of future business developments.* The other was to use the results of that review
to recommend such changes in form and substance of fluiinaai Conditions D i g * *
(BCD) as are judged most likely to enhance the informational value of the
report. The BEA research project is now scheduled for completion in the next
few months. The present paper surveys briefly the background, purposes, and
methods of the study and then concentrates on some of its results, notably the
new composite index of leading indicators. This first, selective progress report
will be followed shortly by a monograph that will produce a complete account
of the analysis, techniques, and findings of the study.
BACKGROUND
Since the review of indicators by Moore and Shiskin in 19J56, several
important developments had occurred which made it advisable to undertake
another appraisal of this system of economic data.
lafkthn. In 1970, for the first time in recorded US. history, GNP in current
dollars and other comprehensive nominal aggregates showed only retardation*,
while GNP in constant dollars and other reel indicators (such ss industrial
production and employment) generally showed contractions of the type
associated with business recessions. This suggested the need to pay more
attention to the distinction between nominal and real indicators in dating and
analyzing business cycles, and we dealt rather extensively with this issue in our
work.
G r o w * eydm. In the post-World War II era, economic fluctuations in the
United States, and particularly in Western Europe and Japan, have become
generally much milder than they were in earlier decades. Frequently, they have
taken the form of alternating high and low rates of economic frowth, rather
than expansions and contractions, in major economic variables.1 Turning points
in the leading indicators have sometimes predicted reversals in cyclical activity
(recessions and recoveries) and other times merely the transition from the
vigorous to the sluggish phase of the growth cycle or vice versa. It would be most
useful to develop a system of indicators which could distinguish, on a current
basis, the signals of business cycle turns from those of growth cycle turns; but. as
yet. we have not developed such a system, and it b indeed questionable whether
such a distinction will be possible in practice. The treatment of growth cycles
will be taken up in a subsequent report; in this paper we deal with business
cycles. Accordingly, our interest here is in leading indicators as predictors Of
business cycle peaks and troughs rather than of growth cycle turning points.
sector of the economy be kept separate from the series representing governmental policy actions and other forces external to the private sector. Separation of
the two sets of data (which, of course, is possible only to a limited extent) is
desirable so that interaction ternwen them, and particularly between the leading
series and the economic policy indicators, a n be studied.
BUSINESS CYCLES AND THE RELATIONS
BETWEEN INDICATORS
Business cycles am recurrent sequences of cumulative expansions and
contractions which are diffused ewer a multitude of economic processes and are
directly observable in fluctuations of the major input and output series which
reflect aggregate economic activity.* While recurrent, the business cycles of
experience am definitely nonpericdic; that is, their duration varies greatly, but
they are sufficiently long t o permit cumulative movements to develop m both
downward and upward directions, which normally requires several years. They
also vary considerably in intensity and scop* but are dearly distinct from the
much bat synchronized and smeller movements of shorter duration. Although
widely diffused throughout t h * economy, they typically affect some sectors and
processes (e.g., manufacturing, inventory investment) much more than others
(e.g., services, money wage determination). Business fluctuations of the type
briefly described tare have tang been observed in modem well-developed
economies with large private enterprise sectors.
As implied by the pervasiveness of business cycles, numerous time series
display cyclical najvemtim. ijs., "cyclical indicators" abound. It is possible »
compare the different series with respect to how weH they perform as indicators
and to rank, select, and classify them accordingly. This is done according 10 a
number of specific criteria which are explained in greater detail liter o n . The
weeded indicators are those whose records stand out for the uumansntv with
which thaw movements have paralleled business cycles; the regularity of their
timingat turning points in aggregate economic activity; the prominence of thtir
1 d gi
t
g
;
importance of the represented activities within the economic system and,
particulsrty. for the firocaeaua & general business expansions and contraction*.
This latter ''economic significance'' criterion provides a direct link between the
indicator analysis and economic theories bearing upon the nature, causes, and
effects of business cycles.*
An analysis of the relationships among indicators shows that important and
persistent timing sequences and amplitude differences exist among the various
series. The sequential relationships that link the individual indicators have simple
and sensible explanations, as illustrated by the following types:
Recent times
(a) The aaat* of mrim Mar mpnmtt aany atejet of tt» pnduetkm tnd
have witnessed major economic disturbances associated with external and
political events. The occurrence or timing of such events is, in general, not
predictable by means of the professional skills and tools of economists and
statisticians, and their consequences are often difficult to foresee. In addition,
both the weight of the Government and the extent of its intervention in the
economy are much larger now than they used to be. These external and. in part,
random factors reduce the effectiveness of cyclical indicators and of all
forecasting approaches that rely mainly on the recurrent elements in the
interplay of forces within the economy.
Improvements in the use of cyclical indicators (as in other methods of
economic forecasting) depend importantly on the advance of knowledge about
the role of governmental stabilization policies and other activities: hence, the
need for 3 review and inclusion of governmental policy variables in BCD. We
believe it advisable, however, that such series be excluded from the composite
indexes and that the series representing the major forces operating in the private
Thus, for
example, contracts and orders for plant and equipment show large swings that
lead, while business fixed invest mam expenditure* have smaller cyclical
movements that coincide with or lag the fluctuations in aggregate output. Leads
of new orders or contracts are necessarily involved w h e n goods are made to
order rather than sold from stock.
(b) Vmint nhthm
0mt reflect aaouaness of toadies* dBcawm under
ccnditHjnt of uncertainty. For example, increased demand for output, calling for
additional labor input, is likely to be met first by lengthening the wort-weak and
only later, if still needed, by hiring new workers, because the former adjustment
is less binding than the latter. Similarly, reductions in hours would precede
layoffs in times of falling demand. In the vicinity of cyclical turning points, the
uncertainty about the direction, sue. and duration of current and impending
movements in business activity is particularly large, so some time will elapse
before the trend becomes clearer and the interim decisions on hours are followed
by those that affect the number of persons on payrolls. Hence, cyclical changes
in average hours worked precede those in employment, particularly in
manufacturing.
ExogtnotadHturttnmtndGomntiimttcthiitmKxIpolicm.
1
This project v»gs performed « 4 r a research contract between BEA and F Y o l i a r victor
Zamowitz of the Graduate School of Business. University of Chicago. Or. Zarnowiu it n jponsible tor m e overall (traction of the jtody. Major pars of the project were carried out by
nwmban. of the Nnional Bureau of Economic faua»ch INBER) under the direction of
Oiarlone Boschan. Substantial contributions to this study ware made by V* staff of Vie
Statistical Indicaton Division of BEA. This staff is under the immediate direction of f eliks
Tamm. Otief or the Dwrsion.and is under the general supervision of Beatrice N. V a c c n .
Associate Director for National Army w and Projection*. In addition, the study benefited
from the advice, suggestions, and guidance of the BCD Technical Committee. Edgar R.
Redter, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Q u i t men. The authors also wish to thank Geoffrey
H. Moore of NBER and Julius Shiskin o l t h e Bureau of Labor Statistics for helpful common*.
' T h e present review follows on a series 01 such reviews by N 8 E R . The first selection of
indicators, limited to revivals, was made in t 9 3 7 . and the list was then extended to reoastions
and successively revised in 1950. 1960. and 1966. See w . C Mitchell and A. t. Bums.
Statistical Indicators of C y c l e d Rennets. New York: NBER Bulletin 6 9 . 1 9 3 8 . G. H. Moore.
StMietiol indicators of CycMcel Revivals and Recessions. New York NBER. 1950. C . H .
Moore, ed.. S u m s Cycle i m t a t o r s . 2 vota.. New York: N 8 E R . 1961. and G . H. Moore end
J. Shiskin. Indcators of Buiineet Expansions end Contractions. New York; NBER. 1967.
'See llse M i n u . "Oeting U S . Growtn Cycles." Explorations in Economic H e s t e r * .
Occasional Papers of NBE R. Vol. I. No. f . Summer 1974.
'Historically, the series used t o c a i r n s * Die reference dates of business cycle peeks and
troughs included not only comprehensive input and output measures buch as total employ
mem, GNP in constant dollars, industrial production) but atsomereUled nominal indKetors
le.9.. national income, manufacturing and trade sales, and. lor early p a t i o * not covered by
national income eccounB. bank debits end payrolls).
• The m e i n f e c t o n in theee theories e m be roughly grouped as follows: < t l The interaction
between investment and final demand, or between m e investment end saving functions. <2)
changes in the supply of money, bank cradt. interest rates, end the burden of phvete debt.
(3) changes in prk»cost relations, profit margins and totals, and business expectations. Thu.
of course, d but e starkly condensed list, which groups together severe! types of explanations.
« . » . ( I I includes accelerator-multiplier models, hypotheses thel e m p h e w * legs end nonlmearities in investment end saving functions, and views stressing the role o l i n n » * o o n s and
investment opportunities in particular industries. 12) containt both the older credit and the
current monetarist theories; and (3) coven the concept of horijonuj maled|usvnents resulting
in price-cost imbalances es well es the! ol businessmen's errors of oowoptim.nr> «nd pasti
m o m . For an overview o l business cyde theory and le search, see V . Zarnowi». "The Business
Cycle T o o n An Introduction." in Z a m o w i u . ed., Tne iuaioem Cvcss Todev. N>w York
N B E H , 1972. PP. 1-38.
let Timing mqumiem ttm mraacr ttock-ttom nkthnhipt.
A stock a r i a the evaluation is undoubtedly important, is seemed advisable to handle as much
of it as possible by preselection. Thus, data representing variables judged to be of
low economic significance have not been included in the review. This makes it
possible to assign to this qualitative characteristic a weight of no more then 16.7
percent, or one-sixth of the total.
(b) Statistical adequacy is judged equally important. Here a number of
subcomponent scores are determined and summed so that the evaluation is
largely quantitative rather than qualitative.
(c) The consistency of cyclical timing is crucially important for the principal
use of the indicators: timely recognition (ideally, tor the leading series,
reasonably successful prediction) of business cycle turning points. Hence, timing
is accorded the highest weight (26.7 percent).
(d) Conformity and smoothness receive the second and third largest weights,
respectively, since it is highly desirable that the movements of an indicator
parallel business cycles and not be obscured by relatively large and frequent
irregular variations.
<e) Currency is given the smallest weight. Prompt availability of the data is
certainly important for current analytical and forecasting uses.* But a series with
a consistently long lead and adequate conformity end smoothness can be quite
useful even if its currency is relatively low. whereas a series whose timing and
conformity are poor is not likely to be of much help (regardless of its
smoothness) even if it comes out promptly. Moreover, in order to distinguish
the cyclical movements in a volatile series from short-term irregular changes,
considenbta smoothing may be needed, which implies 1 loss in currency.
Our scores relate to the cyclical behavior of economic time series during the
period 1947-70, white the Moore-Shiekin 1866 review related to the period
before 1966 (as far back for each arias a* data were available). Because our
scores are "rebased" in accordance with the post-World War I I distribution of
the cyclical timing comparisons, they differ appreciably in certain parts from
those of the Moore-Shiskin review; yet the overall weighting systtmt adopted in
the two studies are rather similar. (Compare cod. 1 and 3 in table I.)
To explain further the rationale and applications of our procedure, the scoring
of indicators under each of tf> 'major criteria is now described in some detail.
(The reader who if nai inter**--' in the more specific delate may skip the
remaining pages of inn section.)
Economic tifnifianc:
Two factors are considered lare first, the importance
of the economic process or variable which the par ^ular aeries stands for and,
second, the breadth of coverage of the series in terms of the representation of
the activity concerned. The series under review war* classified by nine major
" t y p o of economic process" and each of thast daaaes was subdivided into
several "groups of variables."' It is dearly these major categories that can be
meaningfully compered in t a r n of "economic significance" rather than the
individual series. Hence, as a first step, a broad hierarchy of three levels of
economic variables was postulated, namely, in descending order:
(a) Comprehensive output and input aggregates in reel and nominal terms
{since they define best the general economic activity and also act as key
determinants in economic decisionmaking).
(b) The major components of the above aggregates and other variables to
which causal roles in business cycles are attributed (es.. investment, money
flows, profits).
(c) Variables whose role is primarily symptomatic rather than causal (e.g., the
marginal employment adjustments, change in mortgage debt).
Depending on whether the given series has a broad or narrow coverage, it is
accorded a score of 100 or 9 0 percent for economic significance if it belongs at
the top level of this hierarchy; 9 0 or 8 0 percent if it is placed in the middle
group; and 8 0 or 70 if in the low group. Thus, GNP was scored 100 percent and
industrial production 90 percent; business expenditures for plant and equipment
90 percent and production of business equipment 80 percent; average weekly
unemployment insurance claims 8 0 percent and the layoff rate in manufacturing
7 0 percent. No series that scored less than 70 percent for economic significance
was included in the list of the principal indicators.
SatHtiol
adequacy.' Eight aspects of this characteristic are separately
assessed as follows (the maximum contributions to the total score for statistical
adequacy are given in parentheses): (1) Quality of the reporting system (15
percent)-whether set up directly for statistical purposes, a byproduct of an
administrative program, or nonexistent (as for series that are based on indirect
sources, e.g., estimated from related variables); (2) coverage of process (15
percent)—full enumeration, probability sample, or other sample classified by
coverage; (3) coverage of time period (10 percentMull month or quarter. 1 day
per week or 1 vwek per month, or less (e.g.. 1 day each month); (4) availability
often undcrgois retardation before reversal; hence, the corresponding flow aeries
(or rate of change in the stock) tends to turn ahead of the stock. Thus,
investment in inventories leads total inventories, net accession rate toads
employment, and net change in bank loans to business leads the total of such
loant outstanding. Other timing regularities are revealed when the inflows and
outflows are observed separately. For example, the chengB in unfilled orders
(i.e.. the excess of new orders over shipments) l e e * new orders; hence, it also
leads-by long jntervatt-snipment* and total unfilled orders. This is so because
new order* have both larger and ewiier fluctuations than shipmentsHowever, the existence of these regular timing sequences among various
wonomic time series is not enough to demonstrate that some indicators are
likely to lead, other to have approximately coincident timing, and still others to
lag at outturn eyd» turm. The additional step that is needed is implied by our
definition of business cycles es fluctuations in aggregate economic activity: thus
the series that wnd to coincide include the aggregates of input and output. The
cyclical turns in these variables, and in their major sensitive components, usually
occur in relatively close ckuters in lime about the turning points marking the
transition from an expansion to a contraction or vice versa. Since series such as
new orders, building contracts, and the average workweek tend to tod industrial
production, construction work, and employment, respectively, they are also apt
to lead at the reference dates of the business cycle. By the same token,
inventories should lag the reference turn, because a decline (rise) in sales and
output (when recognized M more than transient) creates pressures to reduce
(increase) the stocks of materials and finished products. Short-term bank loans
to business firms, which are used to a large extent for inventory financing, would
therefore also tend to lea. and so would the interest rates charged on them.
The leading indicators, while helping to predict the more sluggish variables,
are themselves considerably more difficult to predict. One reason for this is that
they are, in general, highly sensitive to disturbances of all kinds and so are
particularly volatile. Many of them, too. are tied to expectations and decisions
that are in pert "autonomous." However, major changes in some leading
indicators can also be attributed in part 10 the prior behavior of the (aggers.
Thus, the downturn in inventories precedes, and mey contribute to, the later
upturn in new orders and then in production, etc., as the need for stocks to be
replenished stimulates orders and helps to bring about the next recovery. The
decline in interest rates during a recession would similarly assist in producing
early upturns in housing starts, orders for capital goods, common stock prices,
and profits.
In summary, the choice of the principal leading, coincident and lagging
indicators is guided by and is consistent with general economic considerations
and logic. This stems worth stressing since it is sometimes asserted, without
regard for evidence to the contrary, that the indicator approach has no
theoretical justification. It is true; however, that the process of selecting and
evaluating the individual indicators is based largely on empirical screening and
scoring procedures applied according to certain specific criteria to large
collections of monthly and quarterly time aeries. In the present state of
knowledge, it is necessary to make wide, though careful, use of such methods in
order to identify and to retain indicators which on the record have performed
well even if their behavior has no completely satisfactory theoretical explanation; of course, the aeries whose economic significance in relation to business
cycles is better understood are, otorrt ptribut. much preferred.
MEASURES OF CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR AND SCORING
OF INDICATOR PERFORMANCE
Six criteria were applied in assessing and selecting the indicators: (1)
Economic significance—how well understood and how important is the role in
business cycles of the variable represented by the data? (2) statistical
adequacy-how well does the given series measure the economic variable or
process in question? (3) timing at revivals and recessions—how consistently has
the series led (or coincided, or lagged) at the successive business cycle turns? (4)
conformity to historical business cycles—how regularly have the movements in
the specific indicator reflected the expansions and contractions in the economy
at large? (5) smoothness-how promptly can a cyclical turn in the series be
distinguished from directional change associated with shorter (mainly irregular)
movements? and (6) currency or timeliness—how promptly available are the
statistics and how frequently are they reported?
A formal, detailed weighting scheme to score each series according 10 its
relevant characteristics was first developed and applied in the 1966 indicator
study by Moore and Shiskin. The present review uses an explicit scoring plan
which is generally similar to theirs and deviates only in a number of details. The
system disciplines and systematizes the judgment of both reviewer and user of
the indicators. It is an effort to insure that all the important aspects of the
evaluation problem are considered in a consistent and, to a significant extent,
replicable way. Clearly, any scoring plan, no matter how carefully conceived,
will include some subjective or arbitrary elements about which judgments could
differ considerably, but these are largely matters of detail which seem unlikely
to impair seriously the value of the system as a whole.
• F o r special rules relating to m e currency requirements o l series included in the l a d i n g
composite index, )ee p. ix.
4
The major types of economic process are the following: I. Employment and
Unemployment, 11. Production and Income; I I I . Consumption. Saving, and Distribution. IV.
Fixed Capital Investment: V. Inventory and Inventory Investment V I . Prices, cosis. «nd
Ptofits: V I I . Money and O « S t . V I I I . Foreign Trade and Payments; IX. Government Activities.
There it strong family resemblance between this classification and that presently employed in
SCO. but some modifications had to be made to accommodate the many new scries considered. Groups II and l l above correspond roughly to Group I I . 'Production. Income.
Consumption, and Trade." m the present BCD division. See table 2 tot the application ol the
new classification to the series in the leading composite indea,
The maximum scores listed in table 1 show the weights assigned to each ol the
six principal criteria and their components (cols. 1-2). These weights reflect a
broad judgment about the relative importance of each of the respective criteria
for the assessment of the performance of the indicators. The main considerations
on which the judgment is based are as follows:
(a) Scoring the economic significance characteristic is difficult and inevitably
subjective, allowing by and large only (or ordinal assessment. While this part of
" T i . a e scores, first assigned by Josephine So. NBfcR Data Bank Manager and Research
Analyst, were reviewed by several statistical agencies ol the Federal Government and reas
sessed on the basis of their comments. We are very indebted for this expert assistance,
although the responsibility lor any errors must remain ours.
VI
TABLE 1. SCORING SYSTEMS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS
Maximum score's (percent)
BEA 1975 review'
Criteria
Lin*
Principal
characteristics
Component
characteristics
(1)
C3)
16.7
16.7
1. Economic significance
2. Statistical adequacy
a. Reporting system
3
b. Statistical coverage of process,
4
e. Coverage of time unit
,
5
d. Measure of error
6
e. Frequency of revisions
7
f. Length of series
8
g. Comparability vr*r time,
9
h. Other consideration*
10
11 3. Timing
At business
( a. Probability.
12
cycle peaks
\ b. Dispersion..
13
At business
f a. Probability,
14
cycle troughs... ^ b. Dispersion..
IS
16 4. Conformity.
17
a. Probability
18
b. Extra turns
c. Amplitude
19
20 5. Smoothness
21 6. Currency.
22
Moore-Shiskin
1966 review9
20.0
20.0
2.5
2.5
1.7
.«
3.3
2.5
2.5
26.7
10.7
2.7
10.7
2.7
16.7
8.3
5.0
3.3
13.3
10.0
Total
100.0
20.0
20.0
10.0
10.0
1OO.O
•Entries in column 1 do not add up exactly to 100.0 because of rounding; entries In column 2 do not add
up exactly to the corresponding entries in column 1 for the same reason.
*See indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions, as cited, Part II and appendix A, for farther
detail.
irregular variations. All sufficiently long fluctuations are therefon
niiedas
cyclical, and others that are too short and shallow arc screened out. The full
specific cycles, whether measured from peak to peak or from trough to trough,
must have a duration of at least I S months, and any expansion or contraction
phase must have a duration of at toast 5 months.
(2) The timing measures are based on the rerfifenca chronology established by
NBER. Ax new and revised data accumulate over time, there j * snereaung need
for a raviaw of busansst cycle reference dates. The latest NBER review resulted
in a few small changes. Two peaks warn shiftad forward and one backward, in
each cats by 1 month: from Jury t o Aucjist 1967. from May to April 1900. and
from November t o Oecembw 1969. Owe trough date was shiftad backward by 3
months, from August to May 1954. The riatas of the other two paaksand four
troughs of U.S. business cycles in the 1948-70 period remain unchanged. The
revised chronology is used for the timing analysis in this article. 11
(3) It is not always easy to match the specific (S) turns in a series with the
reference fM turns, partjeutorfy where the nKwentfmts do not conform vary well
to the cyclical fluctuations in the economy at large. As a rule. $ and H are
matched only if there is la) no other reference-cycle t u n and (b) no other
specific-cycle turn between them. Where both (a) and (b) are m e t but there are
two like 5 turns on opposite sides of ft. lhan that S is matched which deviates no
more than 3 months from ft11 In a vary small fraction of the cases (1 percent
or test) these rules have been relaxed on judgmental grounds.
of estimates of sampling and reporting errors (5 percent); (5) frequency of
revisions (20 peroentj-none, once a reporting period, or more often; (6) length
of series ( I S percent if data begin in 1948 or earlier); (7) comparability over
time (15 percent if no breaks since 1947); and (8) other considerations
(miscellaneous shortcomings handled by judgmental evaluation).
The above statistical adequacy scores consider only the frequency of revisions,
not their size. However, because business forecasters must use preliminary
estimates in lieu of the as yet unknown final values, series that are subject to
large revisions which frequently involve directional changes are particulariy
troublesome. For this reason such series, regardless of their statistical adequacy
score, are not included in the composite index of leading indicators.*
Timing. Measurement of the cyclical timing characteristics of the indicators
has four phases: (1) Identification and dating of the broad movements which
constitute the so-called specific cyciss in these time scries; (2) deciding on the
reference dates to be used, i.e., on the chronology of U.S. business cycle peaks
and troughs; (3) matching the specific-cycle turning points with the corresponding reference dates: and (4| scoring the cyclical timing performance of an
indicator, ba»d mainly on the probability that the observed number of timing
comparisons of a given type will be equaled or exceeded by chance.
(1) In the first phase of the timing analysis, the National Bureau of Economic
Research (NBER) computer program for the selection of cyclical turning points
has been extensively used.'* The specific cycles are defined as being always
significantly longer and usually, but not always, larger than the seasonal and
(4) T o determine the probabilities for the various timing categories, the
individual timing comparison* are classified into three nonoverlapping categories: leads (denoted by -).lags (by +K and exact coincidences (by 0 ) . In addition,
following the long practice in business cycle analysis, we distinguish a class of
"rough coincidences," which includes short leads and short lags as well as
•For the adopted method of estimating the marpitude and impact of p o t revisions, w e
Julius Shiskin. " M a s k i n g Current Economic Fluctuations." Amass of Economic and Social
M e e u e m e n t . January 1973. PP. 1-15.
" O v e r 9 6 percent of nearly 3.000 computer-selected turns were accepted by iudgmem
l a u d on NBER rules and experience, lets than 3 percent wire rejected, and lest Irian 1
p r o m t were suited. The program failed to identify about 4 percent of all finally selected
turning points.
The programmed selection of cyclical turning points is fully described and critically evaluated in Gerhard fry and O u r l o t w Botcnan. Cyclical Analysis o» T i n * Series-- Selected Proe»dires<knd Computer Program. New York NBER. 1971.chapter 2.
1
' In tiiis m u e ot SCO, the new reference cyde dates are tfiown only toi the charts of the
new leading composite inde> and its components. The remaining series m SCO are charted
according t s *t* old reference chronology. The new dans M i l be adopted toe all x » . a i n th«
near future.
" A r t h u r F. Burns and WesWy C M i - c M I I . Mllsuiirej Business Cycles. New Y u r i
1947. pp 118-120.
vu
N8CH.
"exact" coincidence*." The overall distributions of nearly 1,600 timing
comparisons for a representative simple of 188 indicator series snow a Heavy
preponderance of leads over tags at the five business downturns of the period
1948-70. A t the five upturns, on the other hand, the distribution was more
nearly symmetrical. The timing comparisons for the 168 series examined yield
the following tabulation of relative frequencies:' 4
Lemda (L)
Peak*
Trough*
All turn*
0.7
.*
.5*
R'Jt-h
coincidence! (C>
0.3
.4
.33
L w (U)
0.2
•*
.3«
Using this distribution and the additional assumption that the results in
successive cycles are independent, the probabilities corresponding to the
observed timing records of the indicators are determined by application of
cumulative binomial distribution. 1 ' Thus, the high relative frequency of leads at
recent business downturns, when translated into the high probability that such
leads are due to chance (p • 0.7), means that a series must have a highly
consistent record of early timing in order to qualify as a leader at peaks. The
corresponding probabilities for the other types of timing are much lower.1 *
The timing stores also take into account the dispersion of the leads and lags
about their mean. The standard deviations Of leads and lags tend t o be much
lanjer at peaks than at troughs, and our scores reflect this difference. The scoring
for dispersion gets 20 percent of the weight in the overall score for timing.
Conformity. A series conforms positively to business cycles if it rises during
expansions in aggfetfate economic activity and declines during contractions; it
conforms invertedly if it moves eountsrcyclScally. i.e.. down in expansions and
up in contractions. How well a series has conformed can be measured by relating
the number of business cycle phases that ace matched by the specific-cycle
movements to the total number of phases covered, taking into account the
direction of each movement and also the systematic leads or tags of the given
series."
Two other important aspects of cyclical conformity are included in the overall
conformity score. One allows for the number of "extra" specifks cyclesmovements in the indicators which do not mater) the general business expansions
and contractions and can result in misleading "false signals." The other takes
account of the amplitude of cyclical fluctuations in the series, since-other
things being equal-larger movements will be more distinct which is a positive
feature in an indicator. To derive the amplitude measure, we compute the
percentage change between the peak and trough values of the time series at
successive reference dates (shifted by the median timing) and divide the results
by the durations of the corresponding phases.1 * These per-month amplitudes are
then averaged for all reference phases, with phase durations used as weights.
To conclude, conformity scores are computed on the 0-to-100 scale by adding
up the following three components: Probability score, maximum 5 0 points;
extra turns score, maximum 30 points: and amplitude score, maximum 2 0
points.
Snoothnea.
An indicator with a good performance record on cyclical
conformity and timing may, nevertheless, be of little value for current business
analysis and forecasting if its cyclical movements are obscured by large erratic
variations. Indeed, insufficient, smoothness is the main defect in many indicators.
Higher degrees of smoothness can be achieved by certain simple, closely
interrelated devices-longer time units, moving averages, comparisons over longer
time intervals— but always at a loss in currency. Sometimes it is advantageous to
" T a k i n g account of the systematic timing difference* by type of turn which are strongly
in evidence, the concept of rough coincidence was modified to include m e intervals -3 to +1
months at peaks and -1 to »3 months at troughs. The percentages o< rough coincidences so
defined aie 2 8 and 4 2 at business cycle peaks and troughs, respectively, under the old
definition (-3 to +3 months at either turn), the corresponding proportions wouM be 34 and 5 6
percent The exact coincidences account for about 8 percent of the observations at peaks and
2 t percent at troughs.
"Because the concept of rough (rather than exact) coincidence was used, the entries in
each line add up to 1.2. not 1.0. since some timing comparisons m«y be in two groups <L and
C. or Lg and Cl. leads and lags are. of course, mutually exclusive. An exact coincidence is
counted as a half-teed and a half-lag in the computation of the probabilities lor leads and lags.
" T h i s general approach, first adopted by Moore in Statistical Indicators of Cyclical
R e w n l t and Recessions, New York. N8i=R. 1950. is workable for the purpose on hand.
although the independence assumption can be questioned. Our procedure differs from that
followed by Moore (1950) and Moore and Sh.skin (1966) in that w> use different probabilities * i d a modified concept of C. both reflecting the post-1947 timing distf ibutions.
1
' in fact, a series may have more leads than rough coincidences at peaks and still score
Bell' r if it is treated as a coincider rather than at 3 leader (in which case it is so treated). For
ex* .pie, 4 K index of industrial production has four leads at business cycle downturns 1
1SW3-€9 1-4. • ! . -6, - 3 . -31. The probability that lour leads out of five possible comparisons
occurred by chance is 0.628 (based an p * 0.7). while the probability f<x three rough
coincidences lumen .1 • 0 . 3 ) « only 0.163.
' ' This is done by shifting the reference peak dates by the median lead or lag ul trw i t u r t
at peaks, and analogously for troughs. Trie average vducs of the series in 3-month periods
centered on the so-ascertained dates are then computed and compared to see v.nether the
series rose, declined, or showed no change in each of the cyclical phases covered. See Bry and
Bocchan, op. dt., p. 105 ff.
use smoothed data for erratic series that have long leads and come out relatively
promptly. As shown later, we have sometimes done so. In these few cases, we
have adjusted the scores to reflect the lass of currency incurred in the smoothing
process.
Our measures of smoothness (like those used by Moore and Shiskin) are based
on the relationship between the irregular and the cyclical component of a time
series. For monthly data, the M C D (months for cyclical dominance) estimate
is used. This identifies the shortest span in months for which the average
percentage change (without regard to sign) in the trend-cycle component of the
series is greater than that of the irregular component.1 *
Currency. Two elements are considered here: periodicity (how frequently the
figures are compiled) and tag of release (how promptly after the period to which
they refer the figures become available). The availability of daily or weekly
figures is an advantage because they help to make early estimates for the current
month and can be smoothed with a minimum loss of currency. The next best
thing is a monthly series that comes out soon after each month covered. Our
currency scores reflect the availability of the data to the BCD staff at the time of
their publication deadline (about the 25th of each month).
COMBINING THE INDICATORS: RATIONALE,
CRITERIA, AND METHOD
The scoring procedures described above were applied to a large and diversified
collection of time series. Over ISO individual series already included in BCD and
a similar number of new series were considered. Monthly data accounted for
about two-thirds of that total, quarterly for the rest. Not all of these series
qualified for full analysis as cyclical indicators, though the majority did. The
qualifying scries represent a large body of material which is of direct interest to
business analysts and provides the data base for forthcoming changes in the full
list of cyclical indicators in BCD. They will be presented in the comprehensive
report on the results of this project; but here we can deal selectively with only a
fragment of that material, namely, the principal indicators that lead at both
peaks and troughs of business cycles. Thus, the focus of our attention in this
article is on those series that are chosen to be included in the new composite
index of leading indicators and on the comparison of the new with the old
index.
Why thould indktton be combintd Into Indexet? If the scoring system works
as intended, it will help us identify a group of series that are particularly useful
in providing advance information about an impending buanas downturn or
upturn. These series are chosen from the many reviewed on the strength of their
performance on the average over the sample period, giving the preponderant
weight to the observations near the turning points covered. When such indicators
are used for analyzing and forecasting business conditions, it is. of course,
assumed that they will retain their anticipatory qualities beyond the sample
period, and each new recession or recovery will test afresh that working
hypothesis. Failures of individual indicators do not refute the method: rather,
they merely impair and, if repeated, ultimately invalidate the particular series
concerned. On the other hand, even a failure on a single occasion, if it extended
to the whole set of the principal leading series, would have strong negative
implications for the indicator approach.
The reasons why a group of indicators should be more reliable over time than
any of its individual members or subsets have to do with the nature and causes
of business cycles. It has long been observed that each cycle has its unique
characteristics as well as aspects which it shares with other cycles. There is no
single proven and accepted cause of cyclical fluctuations nor a single invariable
chain of symptoms. In other words, no set of simple, stable functions has yet
been identified that would adequately explain or predict all the major
fluctuations of the U.S. and other modem economies.1* Instead, we have 3
variety of plausible and not mutually exclusive hypotheses end a number of
frequently observed regularities which, though they might be expected to
persist are certainly not immutable. Thus, how the individual indicators would
perform in a particular episode is likely to depend on which presumptive causes
of a cyclical reversal are then in operation and how (through which process! they
work. Some leading indicators, then, would prove most useful in one set of
conditions, others in a different set. To increase the chances of getting true
signals and reduce those of getting false ones, it is advisable to rely on all such
potentially useful leading indicators as a group. 1 '
1
' For most series, a 13-term Henderson moving average is used to represent the trend-cycle
component. This is one of thr«e smooth and flexible averages which may be chosen on the
basis of the relative amplitude of the irregular and cyclical movements. For relatively smooth
series, a 9-m«ith Henderson curve is used: for arratk series, a 23-month Henderson cur*- is
used. The irregular component is obtained by dividing the trend-cycle component into 'he
seasonally adjusted series. The ratio of the average percentage change in the irregular component to that in the trend-cycle component. I/Ci generally declines as the span (inmontiw)
over whichjhe change is measured increases. MCD is tne snortest span for w h i c h T / C < 1.00.
The MCD. l/ci and related measures of variability are shown for many series in appendix A.
part I I I of BCD. For more complete explanations, see J. Stiskin. "Electronic Computers and
Business Indicators" and "Statistics for 9iort-Term Economic Forecasting." chapters 17 and
18 in Business Cyclt Indicators. Volume I.
" i t might be argued that if such an ideal model were available we would presumably hove
•"' that is needed for successful rnacroeconomic analysis-and forecasting and polityrnaking as
well-if the model could be implemented with the available data * . ? used optimally lor polity
simulation* and prescriptions
a>
For a similar interpretation of the composite index ot leading indicators, see Saul H.
Hymans, "On the Use of Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points." Brooking*
Papas on Economic Activity. 1973. Vol. 2. pp. 347-348
"Reference rather than specific-cycle amplitudes are used so as to have a measure based
on only those movements in the given series that can be associated with business cycles. (In
the 1966 study, amplitude scores were based on specific-cycle figures, see Moore and Sh.skm.
op. clt. O.9I.I
Vlll
Another important reason lor combining the leading series into composite
indexes is that the meTaauremant erron in indh/iduel indicators (opecWIv in the
matt recent observations band on preliminary data) ant often large. To tha
extent that the data error* in the different indkators are independent, the risk of
being misled can be reduced by evaluating the signals, not from any one aeries
viewed in isolation, but from a number of series-11
The leading indicators tend to be sensitive not only to sustained cyclical
fluctuations m the economy but also to frequent disturbances of all kinds.
Hence, the month-to-month change in these series (after elimination of seasonal
elements) tend to reflect the short erratic fluctuations much more than the
longer cyclical movements. By combining the leading series into an index, tome
of that "noise" is eliminated; that is, a property constructed composite index
can be much smoother than any of its individual components.
What nqukttimu
mm tf» motor mmf? Each of its components must
obviously rate wall on two counts: ( t ) Timing of the proper t y p e " and (2)
relatively high overall scores. H O W M T . ihe selection cannot be guided by the
scores alone, since more is required of a good index than of a good single
indicator. An important requirement of the composite index is diversified
economic coverage. The component aeries should be drawn from all economic
process groups that fit well into the given timing pattern. However, broad
coverage in these terms cannot be achieved except at some expense in accepting
lower scores.' 4
Prompt availability of reasonably accurate data is another requirement of an
index that is to be useful in currant business analysis and forecasting. We have
therefore considered for the leading index only those series that are available
monthly with sufficiently short publication lags and are not subject to large
revisions.
Hemm* tt» in&xmeonunmmSP*
There are five basic steps: (1) For each
component series, month-to<manth percent changes are computed* (For series
which are expressed as changes, month-to-month differences are computed.) (2)
Each series of changes obtained in step 1 is standardised < U . , dmded by the
long-run average of these changts without regard to sign). Standaniiatioii putt
all the components on an equal basis (La., their avtrega month-tc-momh change
b 1) and prevents the more volatile series from dominating the index. (3) For
each month, a weighted average of the standardized changes derived in step 2 o
computed, with the components weighted according to their overall scores as
cyclical indicators. (4) The average changes from slap 3 are also ttandardbsd
(i.e.. divided by their average without regard to sign). (51 The standardized
average changes from step 4 am cumulated into a monthly index which is
rebaaed so that 1967 - 1 0 0 . " Because of tha adjustment in step 4 . the average
absolute month-tomonth change in the composite index is 1 , which providasa
useful standard with which to compare changts in any particular period.
Conumption and Dktributton. Two series are included from this economic
process group. The orders geries in tha new leading index differs from that of the
old index in that it includes nondurable goods industries with advance orders
and excludes orders for capital goods and defense products. This exclusion
removes the overlap with the series on contracts and orders for plant and
equipment which existed in the old index. The orders component of the new
index is expressed in constant (1967) dollars: of the old index, in current
dollars."
The other series in this group is "vendor performance," which measures
(inversely) the speed of deliveries as assessed by industrial purchasing agents.
Delivery slowdowns spread in each expansion but begin t o give way to speedup*
as the rate of economic growth and capacity utilization start falling, which
typically occurs wall before the general downturn. (The envelopments during
contractions are reventd but analogous, with the vendor performance index
reaching its trough weH before tha business upturn.) Despite limitations of
coverage; this series is definitely useful as • constituent of the leading index
because of favorable timing and other characteristic"
FM
C i /
I
Two strict- net business formation and new
building permits for housing-are retained unchanged from the okf index. The
third series, contracts and orders for plant and equipment is now measured in
1967doaan.
hnmtoty /iiietMiaret. Variables in this category are particularly difficult to
manure. Moreover, rapid inflation can causa targe shifts in the method of
inventory reporting and large errors in inventory measurement. Perhaps largely
because of this, the contribution to the okt leading index of the change in book
value of rrvjnufacturing and trade inventories (BCO series 31) was in recent years
highly erratic, hence, of dubious value. Hevartlnleu. changes in inventory
investment have long been recognized as an important contributory factor in
business cycles. It was therefore judged important to include a measure of
inventory change in the new composite index despite the (act that the rule on
current availability had to be relaxed somewhat to insure this inclusion.
The inventory j r w u m w i t series used in the new compoaitB index consists of
the change in stocks "on hand" (mrieaponcSno, to BCO 31) combined with the
change in stocks "on order" -goods ordered far further pi ocMaujig or resale but
not yet received. The second component, change in inventories on order, is
approximated by the change in unfilled orders of manufacturers. exckJdmg
unfilled orders for capital goods and defense prodjucts. The reason for the
seleetion of this series is that tha concept of "desired" mvemory. though not
drrectty ottarvable, it batter lapreaeiiajt) by the total of stocks on hand and on
order than by either of its two conapontnts.** ft it the on-orrjer, not the
otr+tand, part of stocks that lends itseH t o prompt arjjuttmanttairnad to offset
the unwanted changes m the overall inventory position. (The suck and unfilled
order series from which the inventory change series has bean computed ware
first deflated.)
COMPOSITION OF THE NEW INDEX
OF LEADING INDICATORS
While the sum of the two components it last erratic than either of them atone,
me series does not scan wefl on smoothness. However, the timing of dw change
in total stocks on hand and on order it early enough t o permit a tradeoff of
shorter leads for more amrrrthnatt. and after aomeexptrin—itaiion. a weighted
4-month moving average «a> applied to this series.3 •
fricm. Cam tnd Profiu. Two series from this group are included. We retain
Ihe stock price index, which continue* to accumulate its long record of serving
wan at • leedmg ndkator of h o m e s receaBont and recoveries. Stock price
changes both mirror and affect the general state of expecMons. and they have
lately failed to anticipate any of Ihe maior cyclical mCMmanB in the erxnomy
However^ they a t e gave strong warning tagnab) on two racem occasions (1962
»business activity stowed down without declining.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics index of in
eat prices, contained
in tha old compcarte, either coincided or lagged at the business cyde turning
points in 196611960, and 1 9 7 a Itowtver. price nrJtxet for materials continue
to be much more sensitive t o changes in demand than other price series, and
their jriortpariod mm of cntnye typically begin detaining etrty in the last year
of a businem expansion and begin rising aavoral months before the end of a
contraction. Like most other economic d a b after differencing, these series are
volatile. However, they still have good leading characteristics when smoothed
with short moving averages. A comparison of three related price indexes shows
that, in this smoothed, parcam-change form, the WP1 for crude materials
The new index consists of 12 series drawn from six economic process groups.
Group I I , Production and Income, is not represented because most serial in this
group have coincident timing. Four series are retained from the old index (table
2, items 1-4); five are substitutes for relatad series in the old index (items & 9 ) ;
and three are essentially new series representing activities not covered in the old
index (items 10-12). The setectad series, which are shown in chart 1 , are as
follows:
empkiyimnt
tnd Uhtmploymtnt
The new index, like the currently
published one, includes two series on marginal employment adjustments. The
average workweek of production workers is retained from the old index, but t M
layoff rate is somewhat preferable to, and replaces, initial unemployment
claims."
" T h i s « . of c o i n * . • gencM argument that applies to older groups at w i l l , e . 1 . to
coincident and lagging indicators. I t could c* W a n to suggest the me of overlapping inform*,
toon (ije.. difleient measurements for aseantially the same or similar variables), but this it
undeniable on other grounck: duplication should be avoided inasmuch as n resits in un«v
tended and uncontrolled multiple w e s t i n g of some dementi in the index.
" O u r task hem is to construct an index ftiat would signal botn types of turn, so all
components must teed at both peaks and trough* and score M i l on that basis. (Each must
hive the timing dassifkation L. L. U sea appendix A.) This excludes indicators which lead at
either businaai downturns or upturns, but not at both. Such series could be used in composite
b
g
" I h e adornments for tha enacts of price changes a n . her* and elaswhete. applied
separately to each of t i e major pans of the aegragne. (Sea descriptions of the new series in
appendtaCl
or the other phase ot ths cycle. We have constructed such experimental separate indexes tor
peaks and troughs with a view t o ( I I broadening the coverage in terms of the different
economic processes and (2) obtaining earlier and more r«t«jlar indications of recoveries (since
consistent and sizable leads at troughs have been at • premium m the recant cycles). Good
progress was made with regard to the first, but not yet with regard to the second. Further
efforts in this direction are believed warranted and wilt continue. The full report on the
propel will include the results of these experiments.
" T h e drawback of the vendor performer** data is that they are available onry from a
regional, not the national, survey o l purchasing agentt. rtowever, because of the higNy A v e r *
tied industry of the a n a covered by ihe Chicago surveys, despite their limited coverage, these
data h a w a good record as a cyclical indicator. E f f o r t a n under w a r to explore the possibility ot extending the national survey to cover this variable.
" S e e Ru«i P. Meek. I n f a r n w a t n , Expectation!, anal Inventory Fluctuetiant: A Study of
Materieh Stock on Hand and on Order. New York: N M R . 1967. lor the development of this
idea. aho. Z a m o w i u . Orders. Production, and I m w i n e n t - A Cyclical and Structural Aneryta.
New York: N 8 E R . 1973. chapter 8 . for further application! to inventories end woers tor
materials and supplies.
" T h i s is so especially if the indexes are restricted to series that l"od at both peeks and
troughs,
" T h e task of constructing and testing the indexes was performed by the Statistical
Indicators O i m i o n of BEA directed by Feliks Tamm. We thank in particular Morton
Somer. Barry Beck man. and Kenneth Beckman of the S I D tteff for active assistance. The
following discussion of the technique involved is starkly abbreviated. For further detail, see
appendix &
" T h e -noving
the leading index
keep dose to the
The lag is only 1
are based on the
indicator but also
" For the procedures used far the "reverae trend adjusted" index, see appendix 8 .
" T h e layoff tate, which was uaed in an earlier (19601 index of leading series, had not been
available promptly enough in the past, but this i x x i c o m i n a has now been removed.
IX
averages must be "traH ing" rather than centered so thai ihe components ot
will be available promptly. Hence, they n u t h a w short periods «o that they
drift of the d > u proper. Wa us* a « month average with weighn t . 2 . 2 . 1 .
\n months. The scores for the series uaed in the construction of the i n o »
smoothed data and so reflect the graahr smoothness of the tiansf
its shorter leads and ef fectivelv lower currency
excluding foods and faads. has • smell advantage, so this series istalactad for
inclusion in the composite index." Prices of raw materials required for
manufacturing and construction activities reset early to changes in the demand
for output of thess industries and promptly reflect pressures to build up or draw
down raw materials inventories. Although it would be highly desirable to have a
direct measure of such demand, e.9- r a w orders for crude materials, none is
presently available, and the rate of change in prices is used as a substitute.
Two components of the old index classed in Group V I had to be dropped.
One-corporate profits after taxes—is available only quarterly and with long
" The o»er two series tra *» industrial mrtarials spot market prio* M m (SCO Mr i n 23)
aid the "isneitive price M M " reemmty oompied by the Fedsnl Rewrve Board. (Sat A. J.
Ye»». "An EvatuMkmof thePwdctWeAttllty 0*theFRBS»»tivelVi0Bln<lM.-AiMMlo»
• a American Swmtkal Mwt-non. Oseamber 1973. pp. 782-787.1 All «va» M e a t wen
mlyied In tht form of percemegi changes trnonthed with trail ing weighted 4-monih moving
•veragn. (Sse footnote 31.1
delays and sequences of revisions. The other component-price-per-unit-oflabor-cost index (P/ULO-performsd well in the past both as a leading indicator
generally and as » monthly approximation to quarterly profit margin data, but
its recent behavior casts doubt upon the reliability of this series as a component
of the leading index. 1 *
" T h e PARC index (BCD swies 17) amakti atttie bunnest cycle troughs in 1968 and
1981 and lagged m » 1970 upturn. It shamed! very rapidristin 1973-74. Snathe con of
materials is a major ingredient of the vena of »oej output, its variations over time may have
onrejdaraola effect on profit ntareji*. Efforts were made to take into account trn con of
mnariaB • wall m of labor in coonnxliiig aitnmativa inonthly prkseoxa indaxet for msrvj.
for cydicm amryta and probably prediction at well, but they are very dlflicutt tocoretruct
whh available due. TheraeulBobieiiwl es far are inrarvstino but not y»t «dequn> for the
present purpose, nanarch etforttwiu continue in e>a awe with the hope that an appropriate
substitute for BC017 can be found and incorporated into the compceile index.
TABLE 2. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS
AND THE OLD INDEX
Line
Svrlee in
Seriee la old Index1
lades'
Average vorkfwk of production workera,
•aaufecturlaa; (I)
(I)
Index of net bueineee forantlon (IV)
(IV)
Index of atock prleea. 500 ccaaeem
atocka ( V I )
(VI)
Index of new buildln« paralta, prlvmte
bouslac unite (TV)
(IV)
Layoff r»te. •amifacturlne; (lnv«rt«d) (I)
Averece weekly Initial cledB* for
uneaployi>ent lnauranee (inverted) (I)
Layoff rate leads more consistently »t
troughs; classified L.L.L. Initial
clslma classified L.C.L.
Hew oxdere, conetaer g-oode end BeterlUe,
1967 dollare (III)
Hew orders, durable goods (III, IV)
Kev eerles avoids duplication with
ordera for equipment. Deflation needed
for better cyclical performance sine*
the late 1980'a.
Contracta and ordere for plant and
ecjidpaeat, 1967 dollar* (IV)
Sane, current dollare (IV)
Deflation needed for better cyclical
performance since the late I960*a.
Net coanfe la inventories on hand, and
order, 1967 dollera (•aoothad) (V)
Change In book value, manufacturing
trade inventories (V)
Concept of Including stocks on order Is
better. Deflation Is needed for
better cyclical performance since the
late I960'a.
Percent cJiange la eeneitlve pricec, WPI
of crude eaterUle axcludlng foods and
feeds (aaoothed) <VI)
Index of industrial materials prices
(VI)
Percent change la better than level.
Leads are more consistent, especially
since the late 1960's.
10 Vendor pertoraence, percent of coapaalea
reporting slower deliveries (III)
11
Reiujon for change
Best available indicator of changes in
delivery lags. Good record of timing
and conformity.
balance < « ) . 19€7 dollara (VII)
Important measure of the quantity of
money In real terms. Good scores for
Indicator performance.
12 Percent cbaage In total liquid aesete
(smoothed) (VII)
Comprehensive measure of changes In
wealth held in liquid form by private
nonfinanclal Investors.
13
Corporate profits after taxea (VI)
Quarterly and tardy (low score tor
currency).
14
Change In consumer Installment debt
(VII)
Lacks timeliness. In recent period,
very erratic and more nearly coincident
than leading at troughs.
15
Ratio, price to unit labor coat,
manufacturing (VI)
Failed to lead at the last three
business cycle troughs (1958-70). Work
continuing on developing a satisfactory
substitute.
'Daman numerals in parentheses identify the economic process croups as given In footnote t of the text.
CHART 1. COMPONENTS OF THE NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS
[NOV.! (OCT.)
P
[AUG.) (APR.)
P
T
(JULY)[MAY)
T
I I I 1II: i
!
!
II
i II III 1 l:|:in
III
!
-4l
o 1
-11 I
N r
/
(A PR.) (FEB.)
P
T
u p 11
|
-21
-12 Hi
V
' 1\
o
I
i
:°
1
io ii
i11/
o
•f
|;-3
-5
A (1I
0
0
p::
|-4
o
13
-A,
JUJ
in
ill
it
y
-2
Ill •
-8
T
V p™
*i&
/
Ir
\
/
-6:1
1
\
ii
11
/
T5
N*B
Jh
s
1 i
\
o
W
IL
IF
*v
\
-2
I, ILL
1
y
0
>•*"?
i
*
100
mm
0
Q
III
KJ
0
2
i l l 111 III 1,
m
\ /T
iiilii MI
V|f
*r
\
mm
a
100
*
75
\J
Him
-10:
III
II WB
4
200
175
150
125
in
ILL
C i r c l e s entered on t h e c h a r t i n d i c a t e s p e c i f i c t u r n i n g p o i n t s ; numbers i n d i c a t e l e n g t h o f leads ( - ) i n months
from reference turning dates.
• Revised reference turning dates, see page v i i .
15
12
10
m
1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
NOTE:
35
30
25 -^
20 1
1
0
-ii
: A/
; ^
! |
i
WHO
-101
iii
110
"1mr
mm
BCD 29. Index of new building permits, i
privat ! housing units (1967= 100):
f
3
/ •
/
jiiil
A
-17
-i
i i .P.| | ILL
V
—A/
-i
B -30
1
!
120
/
3
Y
•
/
o
7K
1967 dollars (hil. dol.)
li'-i
Lu
\
w
X213. New orders, consumer goods and materials,
0
r
»-3
10E. Co itract ; and order : for plant and
9 eqi ipmeiit, 19 57 dollars ( bil. d Dl.)
A? \
1
e
o
;•
/
39
•
/
-14
-25
0
n
o
-iol
11:ff\/
0
-6i
-8
/
8/
//
\
-2
\
sir
40
o:'::::::::
-12
o
i
M\
|l
0
1
I}
-2 s
0
41
ii r lh
(U
38
BCD 12. Index of net hns ness orma ion (1967=100)
0
-7
0
1
o
-l
in
-22
!/
i
1 1 11 1 1 1III
1
-ii ill
I1 1
0
1
BCD 3. L ayoff rate, manufacturing (percent-inverted scale)
-4
1
1
1
T
III
II
wmmm
\
>
nun
if
I
-8 III
°l *?
\
II
o
\
1
Y /to
11
1 *W
- L
workers, mfg. (hours)
1
|i
o
P
111 11 1
i
BCD 1 J verage workweek of production
1
o
(DEC.) (NOV.)
|;it:{!Ji| |
XI
50
CHART 1. COMPONENTS OF THE NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS—Continued
(NOV.) IOCT.)
Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1967 dollars (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
Moving average1
32. Vendor performance, compan es reporting slower deliveries (percent)
+30
+20
+10.
0
-10
-20
-30
75
50
25
0
X201. Percent change in sensitive prices, WPI crude materials
excluding foods and feeds (percent)s
-3:11:
Moving average1
+4
+2
0
-2
100
BCD 19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (1941-43=10)
c
40
X108. Money balance (Ml), 1967 dollars (bil. dol.
200
190 2
180 s
to
X136. Percent change in total liquid assets (percent)
170
+1.5
+1.0 «*
+0.5
lllnilllllllinliilill
1947 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in
months from reference turning dates.
•Revised reference turning dates, see page v i i .
Weighted 4-term moving average (with weights, 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.
XU
0
"
Monty after O a d f t Changs in consumer k r a l l n w n t debt. the only a r i a from
this category included m the old feting index, white without doubt m
important indiotor, it not retained mainly because of lack of currency and
failure to lead at the recent butineK upturns.* 4 However, the new index
contains two monetary indicators of major aoonomic significance not previously
used in the composite index.
One of the)* new indicators, the a p p l y of money in real tarns, play* an
important rote in modem maoroaoonomie theory, whether one oonstdan the
monetarin or the poct-Keynetiin mock*. The obaarved cyclical behavior of the
aeries used to represent empirically the theoretical concept of "reel money
balances" can be interpreted in ways eonststent with either approach. In the tote
stages of business expansion, monetary growth shows a matted tendency to
decline at banks are increasingly restricted by the available reserves in their
ability to expand deposits given the demands of business firms and households
for loans and currency." A t the same time, the rise in consumer prices usually
accelerates due to togged effects of earlier monetary expansion and increasing
cost associated with high rales of capacity utilization, rising wages, and other
factors. (During contractions, the situation is reversed, with the rate of increase
in money supply picking up early and the rate of increase in prices diminishing
gradually.) The combined effect of these two phenomena results in consistent
and early leads of real money balances, a fact that has been recognized time and
again by economic analysts and forecasters. Having examined several monetary
aggregates" and alternative price deflators, we concluded, on the basis of timing
and overall scores, that the series M l deflated by the consumer price index
(Mt/CPI) qualifies ben in this group.
The other new indicator from Group V I I reflects total liquid avals broadly
defined (M7). The nominal aggregates of money and liquid masts are dominated
by strong upward trends, and their cyclical variation tends to consist of
accelerations and retardations, or phases of high and low growth rates. In other
words, absolute declines in these series are rare and short. T o bring out the
cyclical elements in such variabtes.it is neccasary to use them in the form, not of
levels, but of rates of change. Since these rates of change are highly erratic when
taken monthly (in part because the differencing magnifies measurement errors),
we have again smoothed the series with tfiort moving averages. Wien scored and
compared on that basis, the percentage change in total liquid assets of the
private domestic nonfinandal sector (M7) performs slightly better than the
much narrower and more strictly monetary total* such as M l and MZ. All these
totals are linked by substantial positive correlations, but M l and M 2 show long
toads that have occasionally exceeded the entire length of a business cycle
contraction, making interpretation difficult. The leads of M 7 were much shorter
and less variable, averaging 6 months (as against 15 and 19 months for M l and
M2, respectively I. Moreover, the relation between total liquid assets and nominal
GNP was rather dote and stable; e.g., the quarterly ratios of M 7 to GNP varied
in 1952-73 within the narrow range of 74.8 to 81.3 percent. In contrast, the
ratio M V G N P declined from 34.3 to 18.1 percent in the same period. (The ratios
for M2, between 4 6 and 3 9 percent, were much more stable.) Lastly, the broader
aggregates are presumably more endogenous." For all these reasons, the
percentage change in M7, smoothed with a weighted 4-month moving average,
was selected as the best leading indicator in this subset of the data under review.
THE RECORD OF LEADING INDEXES
AND THEIR COMPONENTS
Table 3 presents the average timing measures and scores for the sample period,
1947-70. for the leading indicators in both the new and old composite indexes.
14
Transformations such as the w e of perosntag:. changes and smoothing did not produce
sufficiently improved results either for this or other credit-flow series, of which the change in
commercial and industrial business loans from large banks is particularly interesting,
" T h e federal Reserve Board could, of course, try » offset such consequences of either its
own past policies or developments in the private sector (as reflected in ctwiges in the income
velocity of money and the "money multiplier"! by increasing bank reserves or reducing
reserve requirements; but it may not wish to do so out of concern about • nation. Moreover,
its interventions are unlikely to be always timely and adequate.
" T h e estimates, compiled by the Board of Governors of the Federal r i s e n * "wstem.
include seven increasingly comprehensive aggregates, from
M l * currency plus demand deposits held outside the Treasury. Federal Reserve Banks, and
the vaults of commercial banks, and
M2 • M l plus time deposits at commercial banks other than large negotiable certificates of
deposit, to
M7 • holdings by the private domestic nonhnancial sector of currency, deposits at commercial banks and nonbank tnnft institutions, savings bonds, credit j n i o n shares,
short-term marketable U.S. securities, and commercial paper. (A somewhat different
version of this series which includes holdings by foreigners and the domestic financial
sector has been used occasionally by others.)
M l and M2 are available for the entire period covered. M7 presently begins in 1952. but it
probably will be possible to extend the series back to 1 9 4 a
We are indebted to Stephen Taylor. Assistant Adviser. Division of f W j r c h and Statistics.
Federal Reserve Board, for clarifying information concerning these data.
* T i t may be important to recall that money in constant-dollar units is definitely an
endogenous variable, whereas the nominal quantity of money, though also in part influenced
by tne internal working of the economy (decisions and changes emanating from the p.iwi?
sector), is in raroe measure exogenous, i.e.. subiect to controlling and correcting actions by
monetary autnorities. As noted early in this paper, it seems desirable not to include in the
leading index any series that represent largely "policy indicators" or government activities.
All series inducted in the new i n d e x " lead o n the average a t both peaks and
troughs (as shown by the mediant h table 3 . cols. 1-3). Indeed, virtually all
individual timing obeervatione for these indicators are leads, and each of these
series it ctaadfied U U L. The same applies to most components of tne index
currently published (.BCD 811). but one series (initial unemployment damn, line
13) hat a record of predominantly coincident timing at troughs and is classified
L, C. U and another (P/ULC, line 10) lacks consistency in its timing at recent
business upturns and is classified L U . L T h e leads are generally much shorter at
troughs than peaks, but these differences sre on the average somewhat l e a
prTxiounoBdiorthenews«tofind«cators.(Cc«nparecols. l a n d 2 , lines21 and22.)
The scons for economic significance (col. 4) vary from 7 0 to 9 0 and average
about 8 0 for the series in the new, as well as those in the old, index. Statistical
adequacy (col. 5 ) is scored between SO and 8 6 (on the average, 73 for the new
index and 71 for the old index). The dose correspondence in these two
component scores is not surprising, since much the same standards were applied
in these respects to the selection of indicators for the two indexes. On the
whole, however, the scores of the series in the new index are higher than those in
the current index, mainly as a result of improvements in timing, smoothness, and
currency (cols. 6-10). The higher scores for the new index are attributable
primarily to difference* in composition, not in the applied criteria or weights.
All series included in the new index have timing scores ranging from 76 to 8 9 .
while ffve components of the old index score below 7 8 (between 54 and 72).
Closer examination show* that the improvements relate to the timing at both
peaks and troughs but are larger for troughs. However, in some caaes, the choice
of early leaders with desirable timing characteristics imposes the cost of
accepting lower conformity scores. Three of the series in the new composite
index have conformity scores of leas than 50 percent while only two in the old
index haw such scores.
Definite gams w smoothness are posted for the components of the new index,
which on the average rate 8 points higher in this regard than do the
components of the oM index. Although three of the new indicators are used in
the form of short moving averages, which somewhat reduces their currency
score*, the new index abo has an overall advantage of earlier availability. Only
one of the new series—change in stocks on hand and on order-will not be
available early enough to be hiduded in the latest value of the index to appear in
each new issue of BCD. (It will be included in the recomputed index the
following month.) tn contrast, the first reading of BCD 611 was based on only
eight series; three of the misting figures ware added to that index after 1 month,
and the last of ihe 12 components only after 2 to 4 months. This contributed an
erratic element to the most recant values of the o M index, thereby making them
tat useful for current analysis and at times even potentially misleading.**
Table 3 concludes with a twofold summary: (1) Avaragesof timing and scores
of the series inducted in the indexes (lines 21 and 22) and (2) median leads and
scores of the indexes themselves (i.e.. aaKstrnents of the indexes as two
individual series; tines 23 and 24). Despite the advantage of having component
series with longer leads at trough!, the new index does not anticipate business
upturns by longer intervals than the old index. 4 * (Compare col. 2, lines 2 3 and
24.) The overall scores of each index for timing, conformity, and smoothness are
considerably higher than the corresponding average scores of their respective
components, as would be expected. 41 (Compare cote. 6 4 of lines 21 and 23,
and 22 and 24.) Moreover, on balance the total scores favor the new index.
Chart 2 shows tne new index and the old index prior to reverse (rend
adjustment (BCD 811) for the period January 1948-April 1975. Shaded areas
represent business cycle contractions. 1948-70. according t o the revised NBER
chronology. Numbers indicate the leads (-) in months from reference turning
&
t
S
\
b
t
k
t
&
t
o
t
o
i
i
f
a
t
i
through 1970:
(a) The new index, like the old. shows two major "extra'* movements-the
declines in 1951 and 19BS-connected with retardation*, but not contractions in
aggregate economic activity. The subsequent expansions in 1962-63 and 1967-68
are much more pronounced in the new index than in the old one. which would
have facilitated current analysis.
(bl The new index is visibly the smoother of the two; consequently, it gave
fewer "false signals" of downturns or upturns. 41
" T h e staff of the Statistical Indicators Division of BEA compiled the data for the new
index and made the necessary adjustment! »or price changes, etc. M t m b e n of the NBER staff
computed the scores. In this connection, vm wish to thank particularly Betty F. Tunstall and
Evelyn J. Crawford. BEA. and Chant* Oubrin. NBER.
" T w o of the missing series are quite volatile and subject to large revisions. These are the
series on change In manufacturing and trade inventories and change in consumer installment
debt. The missing profit series, while much smoother, is quarterly-reported with lags of up to
4 months and very tentative in its early estimates. The remaining missing series, net business
formation, which is afso included in the new composiie index, will now be available tn tune
for inclusion in the latest value of the index due to special elforts to speed up the relaasc of
the information.
" T h e reason is that some ot the new indicators with early timing at troughs are volatile,
and their effective contribution to the index, after the standardisation procedures wd, is
rather smalt. On the basis of mean rather than median timing, however, the new index dues
show a somewhat longer lead at troughs. The mean leads for t r * new index are 1) 1 . 4 . 4 . . m d
7.7 months at peaks, troughs, and all turns, respectively, the corresponding leads for BCD HI I
are 11.t. 2.2. and 7.6 months.
4
' F o r the other characteristics, direct scores cannot tie assigned to a comtwsitr >r>ov«.
rather, the latter can only be evaluated according to the mean s i u r r o l its componmis.
4
*f>espite the fact that ynoothritas scores lor trn: two indexes M I ' uw s*mu IMCO
1 >.
more sensitive measures of smoothness indicate that the fwquefvy o l d i m l i o i w t hjix*' .<,
2 0 percent less in the new index (run in the old.
X1U
(c) On most occasion*, the new index turned upward m m iharply and
c M v baton the «nd of • recession than did BCD 8 1 1 . Abo. it led « the
business cycle troughs in 1968 and 1 9 7 a whereas the timing o< the old index
was coincident. (However, thaw leads of the new index were wary short.)
The angle epi*od» thet Mends out mott dearly in the chart, however, is the
postsample period (after 1970) and, particularly, the currant recession. Although
the NBER chronology is yet to be extended pact 1970, and there is some
duegreement among economists about the data of the last peak, most of the
major coincidaM indicators, including M l GNPand industrial production, point
to the <ast quarter about Novambar-o< 1973.* * The old index declined twice
in 4 months before that data but than moved sharply upward through the first 7
month* of 1974. In contrast, the new index turned down in Junet973 and since
than declined almost continuously through February 1975 <at a sharply
accelerated rats after August 1974). This, it provided a timely warning of the
caution to selected series only. This is so because such adjustments are often
drfficult end sometimes umeeded: they may worsen the conformity or change
the timing of e series; more generally, they can cause errors or distortions in the
data that arei serious yet hard to identify.
The new index is also shown with a reverse trend adjustment (see chart 3 and
appendix B). which makes it comparable to the similarly adjusted index BCO
810. The reverse trend adjustment adds t o the upward movement of the index,
making its trend equal t o that of the index of coincident indicators. The
adjusted indexes have shorter leads at peeks and longer leads at troughs than ihe
indexes without trend adjustments- Although the reverse trend adjustment
facilitates comparison between the leading and coincident indexes, the leading
index has other uses which do not call for such adjustments. The relation
between the movements of the leading index and its components can be readily
understood only whan the index is in its original form.
current recession, and • much earlier ons than BCD 811.
In conclusion, it may be appropriate to remind the reader that no index of
leading indicators (or, for that matter, any other economic forecasting device)
The strength and persistence of recent inflation is. of course, the main reason
for the noted discrepancy between the two indexes las well as between other
important real and nominal serial. BCD 811 consists of ssven nominal
indicators (including both aggregates in current dollars and price indexes) and
five real indicators (series in physical units, quantity indexes, and relative prices
such as the PAJLC ratio). It contains no deflated series. The new index consists
of three nominal indicators, four deflated series, and five other reel indicators.
The substitution of the new index for the old, therefore, amounts to a strong
reduction of the dependence of the leading index on current-dollar aggregates.
However, it is not advisable to deflate ell current-dollar series in the leading
index, 44 and it is important that adjustments for price changes be applied with
4>
T h e M M of defined coincident indicators (825) puhlhtwd in BCO would also agree
with this da«j. si would me subset of mat indicators used in the recent NBER revMw'of Die
reference chronology. See p. vi i.
" F o r an approach in t t m direction, see Carol S. Greenwald. " A New Ocflited Composite
Index of LaacSng Indicators." M m England Economic Review. Jury/August 1973. pp. 3-17.
can perform well if used mechanically and in isolation from other informational
took. Good results can only be expected if the current behavior of such an index
is interpreted with experienced judgment and in light of other evidence. Even
then, of course, various external factors can occssionalty distort the relations
between the leading, coincident, and lagging indicators of business expansions
and contractions. Moreover, structural change in the economy, and possibly
major unanticipated shifts in the inflation rates, will affect these relationships.
Continuous study of the indicators, not limited to any short list of series used
in ihe composite index, is noeded to keep track of such developments and make
best use of the approach. 4 *
4 f
Propeeab a n being m e d M (or submission to the BCD Technics! Committee concerning
ihe composition of the new coincident and lagging indexes and the full list Df cyclical indicators. Sutaaquent issues of BCO, as well as the con vctttonive report on the study, will include
(hit material and various other remits, inducing tests of the predictive performance of the
new indexes.
XIV
ES. NEW AND OLD INDEXES OF LEADING INDICATORS
AND THEIR COMPONENTS, 1947-1970
TABLE 3. AVERAGE TIMING AND
Median
leada (-) or Itr* (•)
(la aontba)
Hnmber and t1i t l e
of eerie*
Una
Peak*
(1)
Trough*
(3)
All
(3)
Score**
Icoaomlc Statistical
significance
adequacy
(4)
(5)
Tinlng
Conform-
Smootb-
Currency
Total'
(9)
(10)
ity
(S)
(8)
(7)
12 COBFOSQMTS
or ass imxt
•a
X
2
3.
3
XJ13.
4
33.
S
a
•13.
lOd.
7
•29.
a
Z170.
9
•19.
•anafaetvnng ( I ) . . .
Layoff rate, nfg.
(Inverted) (I)
Maw orders, coaraaer
good* and materials,
1987 dollar* ( I I I ) . .
Vendor performance
(HI)
Met baa. fomatlon (IV)
Comtraet* and order*,
plant aad eqnlumant.
1967 dollara (IV)...
Ha* building permit*,
private booalng
units (TV)..
Change la atocka on
hand aad en order.
1987 dollara ( V ) . . . .
Stock prlea Index,
-12
-3
-5
70
SO
81
60
80
80
73
-11
-1
-a i/2
70
80
79
80
80
80
76
-6
-1
-4 1/2
80
75
78
70
89
ao
74
-6
-11
-S
-a
70
-3
80
75
81
79
79
48
59
80
SO
so
80
69
73
-9
-3
-S 1/2
80
50
87
72
40
SO
73
-13
-a
-9 1/2
90
70
80
SS
SO
80
76
-5
-4
-4 1/2
90
S3
83
ao
ao
40
71
-9
-4
-5 1/2
SO
as
89
si
80
100
80
-15
-5
-5 1/2
70
80
aa
ao
80
as
72
-10
-s
-9
90
as
80
41
100
ao
79
-6
-S
90
ai
84
41
ao
aa
75
-12
0
-8
SO
58
84
80
80
ao
70
-10
-2
-3 1/2
SO
80
83
71
80
80
78
-10
.2
-6
90
50
7a
-10
-2
-6
90
70
72
SS
0
53
-10
•2
-3 1/3
70
89
54
41
SO
100
68
-ii
-2
-S 1/2
90
73
78
48
80
0
64
-a
500 common
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
X201.
P e t . cbange, price
index for erode
a a t e r l a l a (VI)
X108. Money aopply. 1967
d o l . Ofl/CPI) (VII)
1136. P e t . change, liquid
aaaeta (VII)
-6 1/2
8 UUMKMJBRS OF BCD
1MS8X (BCD 811)
• 5 . Avg. weekly unemploy.
Insurance e l a l a a
(iaverted) (I)
•6. Mew ordera, dur. good*
lnduatrle* (III, IV)
•10. Contracta and ordera
for plant aad equip.
(IV)
•31. Chang* l a book value,
afg. and trade
inventories (v)
•23. Industrial aaterlala
prlea Index ( V I ) . . . .
•16. Corp. profita after
taxaa, quarterly (VI)
•17. Batlo, price to unit
labor eoat, afg. (VI)
•113. Change In con si a i r
inatall. debt (VII).
40
^_
81
-22
0
-5
SO
S3
84
TO
80
80
TO
-8
-1
-7
80
80
72
51
80
S3
SS
_4
-5 1/2
H
73
aj
TO
76
1A
-a
-S 1/2
82
81
82
71
73
71
74
82
100
100
72
71
soattay
21
Average, 12 aerie*, new
22
Average, 12 aerie*. BCD 811
(line* 1, S. 7. 9, 13-20)* -10 1/2
23
24
BCD 811*
-9
-11
-10
1/3
.2
-2
-5
-S
S9
|4
78
78
#SJ
e u
72
80
lumbers preceded by asterisk* (•) refer to series included la tbe current Index (BCD 811). Munbara preceded by X refer to
eerie* not presently published la BCD. Bomaa numerals In parentheses Identify tbe economic proce** croup*. Tbe auaberlag system
•bora in tbl* table la prellalnary.
'All score* are Hated on tbe 0-to-100 scale. Timing scorea are for "all turn*"; tbe separate peak aad trough score* are not
given.
•weighted average of ecorea In colunn* 4-9. For weights a** table 1.
*Colunn* 1-3, median*; column* 4-10, mean*.
'Entries in columns 4, 6, aad 9 are the same aa tbe corresponding eatriea In line 21.
*Bntrle* in column* 4, 9, and 9 are the same aa tbe corresponding entries la line 23.
XV
CHART 2. COMPARISON OF THE NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS
WITH THE OLD INDEX (BCD 811)
INOV.) (OCT.)
P
(AUG.) (APR.)
(JULY)(MAY>
T
P
P
T
T
(APR.KFEB.)
P
(DEC.) (NOV.)
T
P
T
I I I m I I I ITT ITT ITT (Tl T i l T i l 1H T i l I I I U J I I I I I I I I I 1 T IT I IT TTT TTT TTT TTF TTT TTT TTT TTT TTT
Index: 1967=100
131
-11
IK
New index of 12 leading indicators, original trend
9(
o
8(
J
71
131
121
-10
Old index of 12 leading indicators, original trend (BCD 811)
1
-20
V
y
AS V'
111
101
91
81
-4
111 l l l l 11111111111111 M I t 111111111111 U l f 111111111TTI1111111111111111111111111111111111 J.l.t.t.l 1111111111111111111
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) in months
from reference turning dates.
•Revised reference turning dates, see page v i i .
1
This i s not necessarily the peak but i s the high for the available data.
XVI
CHART 3. COMPARISON OF THE NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS
WITH THE OLD INDEX (BCD 810)
(NOV.) (OCT.)
(JULY)(MAY>
(AUG.) (APR.)
P
T
(APR.) (FEB.)
P
(DEC.) (NOV.)
T
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
70
60
SO
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100 2
80
70
60
50
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
NOTE: Circles entered on the chart indicate specific turning points; numbers indicate length of leads (-) in months
from reference turning dates.
•Revised reference turning dates, see page v i i .
Original trend replaced by trend of deflated coincident index (BCD 825).
2
Original trend replaced by trend of undeflated coincident index (BCD 820).
3
Thls i s not necessarily the peak but i s the high for the available data.
XV11
APPENDIXES
A. Timing Classification
To be classified as. say. leading ( U at either peaks or troughs or all t u n s , a
series must earn a higher corresponding score for timing when viewed as L than
under the next bast treatment {normally, when viewed as C); have a probability
of timing as L due to chance of lest than 0J5, i.e., a positive score on that
account; and have a median load. The treatment ot the series classified as Cor Lg
is analogous. When a series has a timing probability of 0.5 or more (in each of
the three groups L, C, and Lg). then it is said to be "unclassified" (U).
The all-turns scores are computed in either of two ways: (1) as a ample
average of the separately derived peak and trough scores or (2) from the distribution of me observations at all business cycle turns covered. (See last line in the
tabulation on p. 00.) The first procedure (average score) does not. and the
second (combined score) does, assume that the observations at peaks and at
troughs come from the same universe. A comparison of the two all-turns scores
provides a test. For series that have the same timing classifications at peaks and
at troughs, procedure (2) gives better results; that is. the combined score a
higher than the average score.1 For series that have different classifications at
peaks and at troughs, two mutually exclusive outcomes are possible: (a) the
average score is higher than the combined one, in which case the series is classified U at all turns; (b) the combined score is the higher one and the series is
classified according to the timing that produces that score. Where the timing
patterns differ sharply, no meaningful classification exists (i.e., (a) obtains), and
so we will often observe configurations such as L. Lg. U . But where short leads
or lags prevail and the peak-trough contrasts are not so sharp, the outcome of
our tests will be of type (b,. e.g., L, C. L or C, Lg, C *
' i n these c a n . of course, t h t h e n combined tear* h for the w n e type of timing as
e m a i l s at peeks and at troughs. For example, a series classified a> leading at b o m types of
turn wiH also besodastified a t ' a l l turns." (It is then labeled " L , L. L " - w i t h the symbols
referring to peaks, troughs, and alt turns, respectively.)
' A d o . series that ant unclassified at one of the two types or turn may ouslin/ fo> a timing
designation when the comparisons at peaks and troughs a n comOiiiad; hare*, there are cases
of U, C, C, or C. U. C.
B. Notes on the Construction of Composite Indexes
Symmetrical changes. T o assure symmetrical treatment of increases and decreases in the index components, the base lor the percent changes computed in
step 1 of the index construction (see text) is the average of the 2 months rather
than just the initial month. For series that can assume negative values, arithmetic
changes (first differences) are used.
Sancfenfeatr'an. For the new composite index, standardization factors for the
individual components (step 2) are based on 60-term moving averages. In the old
index, these standardization factors are based on average changes for the
1953-72 period. The index standardization factor (step 4) is based on i r * period
1948-72 for the old index and 1948-74 for the new index.
Renarse trtnd tdjuttment. The leading composite index may also be subjected
to an adjustment introduced several years ago by Shiskin. 1 This adjustment
modifies the trend of the leading index, making it equal to the trend of the
composite index of coincident indicators. To make this adjustment, the trend of
the leading index is computed by finding the average value of the earliest spec fie
cycle (peak to peak) and the average value of the latest specific cycle, centering
each average in the middle of the cycle, and applying the compound interest
formula to the ratio of the latest to earliest specific cycle averages. The trend of
the coincident index is determined in the same way. The difference between
these two trends is then added to the standardized average changes in step 4, and
these modified changes are cumulated and rebased as in step 5.
For the new leading composite index, the reverse trend adjustment is based on
the deflated coincident index (BCD series 825). When the new composite index
of coincident indicators has been constructed, it will provide the basis for a
revised reverse trend adjustment of the new leading index.
Problem There are. of course, various ways to construct weighted composite
indexes from groups of series, but many of the relevant options appear to have
very similar outcomes.4 However, a few problems remain that deserve more
attention. Average cyclical change (say, in the Henderson curve) may be preferable to the average change in the series proper as the divisor in the standardization procedure of step 2. The second standardization adjustment (in step 41 is
probably best treated as optional. The reverse trend adjustments may be applied
separately to groups of the index components with distinctly different trends
rather than to the composite index as a whole. However, any such adjustments,
by adding an upward drift to the index, can differentiate the movement of the
latter from the balance Of changes in the component series (e.g., though the
majority of these series decline, the index may rise because of the added trend).
Further work on these problems is needed and planned.
'See his "Reverse Trend Adjustment o f Leading Indicators." Ravin* of Economics and
Statistics. February 1967. pp. 4 5 4 9 . Snce that innootion. the composite indexes of leading
indicators have been published in BCD with and without the reverse trend adjustment (as
series 810 and 8 1 1 ) .
' F o r example, the use of Tint differences in natural logarithms might be viewed as more
"elegant" than that of symmetrical percentage changes. Standardization could take different
forms. e . » , division of the series by their standard deviations.
C. Titles, Sources, and Descriptions of Series Included in the Nc« Composite Index of Leading Indicators
1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. (See appendix G of August 1968 issue of
BCD.)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing-Oepartment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. (See appendix G of August 1968 issue of BCD.)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks—Standard and Poor's Corporation. (See appendix D of May 1969 issue of BCD.I
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permitsDepartment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. (See appendix D of April 1969
issue of BCD.)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveriesPurchasing Management Association of Chicago. (See appendix D of December
1974 issue of BCD.)
12. Index of net business formation-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis. This series provides a monthly estimate of the net formation
of business enterprises. There are no direct measures of the monthly change in
the total business population; however, it is believed that this estimate derived
from the available information adequately represents the short-term movement
of new entries into, and departures from, the total business population.
The estimate is based on four component series as follows:
Afew business incorporation*, compiled by Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Thh series
measures the number of stock companies receiving charters each month under
the general business incorporation laws of the 50 States and the District of
Columbia.
Numbir of business failures, compiled by Dun & Bradsueet. Inc. A business
failure is defined as "a concern that is involved in a court proceeding or a
voluntary action that is likely to result in loss to creditors." F I T . W which are
liquidated, merged, sold, or otherwise discontinued without loss to creditors are
not considered failures. Data are for 4 8 States and the District of Columbia.
(Alaska and Hawaii are not included.)
Number of business telephone comma* and disconnects, compiled by the
American Telephone and Telegraph Company. These confidential data measure
the number of business main telephones cor.nt.aed and disconnected each
month. A business main is .fefinud as a single telephot>e line (with a single
number) serving a business firm. Data cover all business ptv.ies in the Bell
System, which is estimated » include almost 90 percent of me total business
phones in the United States.
The net business formation series is itself a composite index computed from
these four components, with the business failures and telephone disconnects
data inverted.
1 0 0 . Contracts and orders for plant and equipment. 1967 doUVs-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Econo.nic Analysis,
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company: and Department of Labor. Bureau
of Labor Statistics. This series measures the value, in 1967 dollars, of new
contract awards to building and public works and utilities contractors and of
new orders received by manufacturers in machinery and equipment industries. It
is the sum of (1) value of commercial and industrial construction contracts. (2)
value of contracts for privately owned nonbuitding construction, and (3| value
of manufacturer:' new orders in the machinery and equipment industries (BCD
series 24).
Data on commercial and industrial contract! measure the value ot contracts
for work about to get underway on commercial buildings (banks, offices and
lofts, stores, warehouses, garages, service stations) and manufacturing buildings
(e.g.. processing, mechanical). Since January 1956. theaters have been excluded
and some nomnduslnal warehouses have been included.
Data on contracts for privately owned nonbuilchng construction measure the
value of nonbutlding construction contracts awarded by private individuals and
agencies. Data include contracts for the following types of construction Streets
and highways, bridges, dams and reservoirs, waterfront developments, sewerage
XVU1
C. Titles, Sources, and Descriptions of Series Included in the New Composite Index of Leading Indicators- Continued
systems, parks and playgrounds, electric light and power, gas plants and maim,
pipelines (oil and gas wells), water supply system*, railroad construct ion, airports
(excluding buildings), e t c
The coraffuctfcri corrtraett date (buBding md nonbuikSng) are d e f e n d by an
implicit price deflator obtained by dhriding the currant-dollar value of nonrasidential construction put in place by the constant-dollar value (or this type of
construction. Current- and constant-dollar values are obtained by subtracting the
values for private residential buildings and public housing and redevelopment
irom the total value ol new construction.
The rmtHifacDjrmt' n*w crdn component of this series measures new orders
received by the machinery and equipment industry subgroup of durable goods
manufacturers, specifically manufacturers in the following SIC categories: (1)
Nonelectrical machinery (except farm machinery and equipment and machine
shops): (2) electrical machinery (except household appliances, communication
equipment, and electronic components); and (3) shipbuilding and railroad equipment. Because of a change in the procedure for reporting nondefense products in
the aircraft, communications, and ordnance industr s data prior to 1968 had to
be adjusted to the level of the later segment >n u d e . to provide a continuous
time series.
The individual three- and tour-digit SIC components of new orders are deflated separately, using appropriate combinations of wholesale price indexes
(with 1967 relative weights). The deflation is performed by the National Income
and Wealth Division of BEA.
X108. Money balance ( M l ) , 1987 doHanv-fioard of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System and Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. This series
is a measure of real money balances. It consists of money stocks ( M l ) deflated
by the consumer price index.
M l includes ( i ) currency outside the Treasury. Federal Reserve Banks, and
vaults of all commercial banks. (2) demand deposits at all commercial banks
other than those due to domestic commercial banks and the U.S. Government,
less cash items in the process of collection and Federal Reserve float, and (3)
foreign demand balances at Federal Reserve Banks.
Measures of M l are averages of daily data for member banks. Estimates of
nonmember bank deposits are based on June and December call report data and
the relationship of nonmember and country bank deposits on those dates. Estimates are provided weekly and monthly.
Data on money stocks are seasonally adjusted by the Federal Reserve Board
using the ratio-tc~moving-everag> method. They are deflated by the seasonally
adjusted consumer price index. Basic data for the deflator are published by the
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
othedl-Board of Governors
X136. Percent change in total liquid I
of the Federal Reserve System. This series is a weighted 4-month moving average
of the percent change in total liquid assets. The basic series, total liquid assets,
consists of holdings by the private domestic nonfinancial sector of currency,
deposits at commercial banks and nonbank thrift institutions, savings bonds,
credit union shares, short-term marketable U.S. securities, and commercial
paper.
Data come from the following sources: Reserve bank summaries of member
bank reports in their respective districts; Member Bank Call Reports; the Federal
Deposit Insurance Corporation's Assets and Liabilities of all Operating Banks
and Trust Companies; daily Treasury figures on currency in circulation; daily
figures on tax and loan balances from Treasury Department records: and data
from Reserve Bank records on Federal Reserve float.
Basic data for this aeries are seasonally adjusted by the Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
X I 7 0 0 . Net change in inventories on hand and en order, 1967 dollars
(wnoottiedl-Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic Analysis and
Bureau Of the Census; and Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This series consists of two components-manufacturing and trade inventories and
unfilled orders (excluding unfilled orders for capital goods and defense products)
received by manufacturers. The levels of the components are deflated separately
and then combined. Monthly changes are computed and smoothed by a
weighted 4-month moving «widjii.
M a m m V n r t n j tnd Hmdt tmmitmk* consist of the sum of the end-of-month
value of stocks on hand in manufacturing, retail, and merchant wholesalers'
establishments. For the manufacturing sector, inventories are reported as valued
by the manufacturers. All manufacturing-associated inventories, regardless of
stage of fabrication, are included. The inventories of retailers and merchant
wholesalers are valued at cost. Goods held on a consignment basis by wholesalers
are excluded.
Beginning in January 1972. each of the components of manufacturing and
trade inventories was deflated separately. Manufacturers' inventories were deflated at the twc-digrt SIC level, and wholesalers' inventories of durable and
nondurable goods were deflated separately, as were durable and nondurable
goods inventories of retailers. The deflators are bawd on combinations of wholesate price indexes with appropriate lag structures developed from information on
stock/sales ratios and on inventory accounting practices. The deflation is done
by the National Income and Wealth Division of BEA. (Prior to 1972. deflation
was perfumed at the aggregate level using a lagged 4-tnonth moving average of
the wholesale price index for industrial commod.oes.1
The inami<acrijwn* tmMtti onden component measures the value of manufacturers' orders backlogs as o« the end of the month. It consist* of unfilled
orders for durable goods (excluding capital goods and defense products) and for
the four nondurable goods industries for which unfilled orders exist For deflation of the unfilled orders segment, see the description of series X213.
X 2 1 3 . Near orders for consumer foods and massriafe. 1987 doftan-Depertmem of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Aratyss and Bureau of the Census;
and Department of tabor. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This series consists of new
orders for durable goods (excluding capital goods and defense products) and for
the four nondurable goods industries which hove unfilled orders: Textile miH
products; paper and allied products: printing, publishing and allied products; and
leather and leather products. Deflation is done seuajlety far each of the industries included in this series, using appropriate combinations of wholesale price
From 1953 to the present, the deflation of new orders for durable goods was
done separately for each of the 10 twc-digrt SIC industries included in the total
snd tftus rvftoctt cunsnt ww^itWQ tor cMh of the components. Prior to 1963,
the deflation of durable* was at the aggregate level using a fixed (1956) weighting of the wholesale price indexes for the 10 components.
From 19GB to the present, deflation of new orders tor nondurable* was done
separately for each of the four twc-digit SIC indusfries included. Prior to 19SB.
the deflation procedure was applied at the aggregate nondurable level using fixed
(1968) weighting of the wholesale price indexes for the four components.
X 2 0 1 . Percent change In amaMve prke» (wW o l crurie rraaaiah eicdtofcia
foods and toads) tenoothedl-Oepartmant of Labor. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Crude materials are basic commodities which are entering the market for the
first time. These include any products, except those daaafied by the Standard
Industrial Classification at manufactured products, which are entering the
market at the production point or the assembling point. Products of farms.
mines, fisheries, quarries, and wall operation are included, as are waste materials
which can be used in place of raw materials. Crude materials may be food or
nonfood. Crude foods (those ready for use by the consumer and consumed as
such without processing other than preparation for market, such as washing and
packing) are excluded from the present index, as are crude foodstuffs, feed and
feedstuff*.
This price index contains the following components: Plant and animal f tiers,
oibeeds. leaf tobacco, hides and skins, fertilizer materials, crude natural rubber,
waste paper, iron ore, iron and steel scrap, nonferrous metal scrap, sand, gravel
and crushed stone, bituminous coal, anthracite coal, crude petroleum, and other
crude fuel.
The indicator used b a weighted 4-month moving average of the percent
changes in the index of sensitive prices.
xix
D. Data for New Series and Indexes
Quarterly
Monthly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
X213. NEW ORDERS, CONSUME? SOODS AND MATERIALS, 1967 DOLLARS
(MILLION DOLLARS)
II Q
III Q
IV Q
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
^'*
1948...
1949..
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954.. .
10,295
9,193
10,302
16,925
12,054
15,474
11,413
10,202
8,904
10,346
15,136
12,125
14,826
12,020
10,749
8,721
10,283
15,545
13,541
15,035
12,059
10,455
8,337
10,759
14,157
13,979
15/550
12/106
10,775
8/376
11/997
13,593
12/310
15,136
12,111
11/590
7,994
12,096
13,160
14,294
14,865
12/726
11,397
8,553
15,070
13,085
13,439
14,715
12,170
11,238
9,908
16,675
11,953
13,120
12,851
12,525
10,613
9,991
13,331
11,468
13,843
11/499
13,174
10,268
9,331
13,450
12,700
13,129
11,121
13,339
9,949
9,733
12,256
12,238
13,180
11/324
14,128
9,518
9,560
12,984
11,849
14,241
11,421
15,147
31,246
26,818
30,931
47,606
37,720
45,335
35,492
32,820
24,709
34,852
40,910
40,583
45,551
36,943
33,248
28,452
45/276
36,506
40,402
39,065
37,869
29,735
28,624
38,690
36,787
40,550
33/866
42/614
127,049
108,603
149,749
161,609
159,255
163,617
152,918
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958.. f
1959.. f
i960.. t
1961.,
1962..
1963..
1964..
15,889
15,770
14,846
11,363
15,630
15,606
13,912
17,058
17/034
18,501
15,763
15,309
15,467
12,052
17,477
15,443
13,800
16,689
17,719
18,522
16,875
15,206
15,147
11,824
16,692
14,490
14,773
16,522
17,667
18,431
16/422
15,436
14,662
12,208
16,732
14,623
15,145
15,821
18,323
19,242
16,297
14,951
14,599
12,699
16,135
14,736
15,620
16,343
17,929
18,938
16,627
14,601
14,720
13,271
16,048
14,780
15,967
15,960
17,380
19,013
16,931
14,686
14,139
13,463
15,830
14,760
15,338
16,531
16,101
19,766
16,429
14/894
14/306
13,686
14,579
14,896
16,099
16,748
17,311
19/111
16,156
14,512
14,354
14,229
14,716
15,148
16,046
16,781
17,801
20,499
15,976
14,987
13,747
14,785
14,723
14,760
16,144
17,061
18,374
19,159
16,575
15,050
13,201
15,062
14,371
14,380
16,770
16,920
18,202
19,536
16,253
15,18e
12/450
15,224
15,880
14,611
17,312
16,425
18,286
20,452
48,527
46,285
45,460
35/259
49,799
45,539
42,485
50,269
52,640
55,454
49,346
44,988
43,981
38,178
46,915
44,139
46,752
48,124
53/632
57,193
49,516
44,092
42,799
41,378
45,126
44,804
47,485
50,060
53,213
59,376
48,804
45,225
39,398
45,071
44,974
43,751
50,226
50,426
54,862
59,147
196,193
180,590
171,638
159,886
188,813
178,233
186,948
198,879
214,347
231,170
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968.. t
1969..
1970.. f
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974.,
1975.. .
20,777
22,433
21,625
23,248
24,503
22,594
23,437
24,871
29,039
27,943
20,576
20,705
22,568
21,429
22,954
24,386
22,754
23,642
25,289
29,531
27,752
20,913
20,958
23,562
21,226
23,057
24,405
22,725
23,985
25,281
29,694
30,582
20,494
20,802
22,916
21,595
22,981
24,462
22,361
23,635
25,824
29,643
28,029
22,572
20,937
22/723
21/917
23/463
24,420
22/823
23,567
26,009
30,235
28,767
21/034
22,805
22/126
23/593
24/451
23/470
23/396
26/104
29,733
28,299
21,625
22,239
22,048
23,458
24,835
23,229
23,652
25,631
30,391
28,577
21/727
22,207
23/075
22/125
24,800
22,998
24,595
27,434
30,032
28/546
20,518
?2,714
22,226
24,446
?5,126
?2,551
23,871
27,891
?9,612
27,240
21,334
22,786
21,879
24,944
25,195
21,446
24,202
28,166
30,626
26,354
21,981
22,045
22,536
25,048
23,951
21,152
24,544
28,611
29,971
24,700
22/554
21.842
24,253
24,666
23,796
23,060
24,544
28,522
26,571
21,392
62,440
68,583
64,280
69,259
73,294
66,073
71,064
75,441
88,264
86,277
61,983
62,773
68,444
65,638
70,037
73,333
68,654
70,598
77,937
89,611
85,115
63,870
67,160
67,349
70,029
74,761
68,778
72,116
80,956
90,035
84,365
65,869
66,673
68,668
74,658
72,944
65,678
73,290
85,299
89,170
72,446
254,952
270,860
265,935
283,983
294,332
271,163
287,070
319,633
357,060
328/203
IOC . CONTRACTS AND ORDERS FOR PLANT AND EQUIPMENT, 1967 DOLLARS
(BILLION DOLLARS)
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
**
t
.,,
1948...
1949..
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
3.37
2.71
3.33
6.26
4.51
5.15
3.77
3.86
2.94
3.37
6.40
4.60
5.16
3.85
3.71
2.91
3.60
5.83
4.66
4.72
3.27
4.12
2.49
3.62
5.83
4.59
5.08
3.36
3.49
2.59
4.48
7.59
4.26
4.65
3.41
4.05
2.83
4;31
5.36
4.79
3.79
3.50
3.61
2.60
5.18
5.12
4.94
4.57
3.67
3.40
2.82
6.40
4.93
4.42
3.84
3.68
3.34
3.11
5.93
4.27
5.75
4.33
3.98
3.38
2.99
5.27
4.77
4.51
4.53
4.15
3.33
3.32
5.22
4.77
4.21
3.97
3.85
3.32
3.05
5.59
5.06
4.99
3.67
4.09
10.94
8.56
10.30
18.51
13.77
15.03
10.89
11.66
7.91
12.41
18.78
13.64
13.72
10.27
10.35
8.53
17.51
14.32
15.11
12.74
11.33
10.03
9.36
16.06
14.60
13.71
12.17
12.09
42)98
34J36
56.30
66.21
56.23
53.66
44.58
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
4.27
5.35
5.38
3.94
4.36
4.50
4.75
4.99
5.21
6.41
4.64
5.14
5.22
3.76
4.49
4.62
4.65
5.41
5.37
5.76
5.34
5.19
5.13
3.78
5.22
4.50
4.46
4.98
5.36
6.03
4.92
5.34
4.59
3.82
4,69
4.82
4.51
5.27
5.46
6.04
4.73
5.56
4.76
3.85
4.83
4.82
4.43
5.03
5.93
6.55
5.01
5.60
4.52
4.01
4.92
4.70
4.66
4,94
5.45
6.74
4.95
5.30
4.42
3.90
4.99
4.68
4.80
4.99
5.42
6.26
5.21
5.25
4.50
4.41
4.47
4.66
5.05
5.00
5.56
6.35
5.39
5.06
4.07
4.45
5.01
4.70
4.73
5.00
5.72
6.40
5.20
5.05
4.12
4.30
4.83
4.56
4.82
5.10
5.62
6.46
5.56
5.66
4.10
4.26
4,54
4,40
5.09
5.48
6.04
6.81
5.56
5.34
3.87
4.11
4.82
4.60
4.72
5.51
6.15
6.93
14.25
15.68
15.73
11.50
14.07
13.62
13.86
15.38
15.94
18.20
14.66
16.50
13.87
11.68
14,44
14,34
13,62
15,24
16.84
19.33
15.55
15.61
12.99
12.76
14.47
14.06
14.58
14.99
16.72
19.03
16.32
16.05
12.09
12.67
14.19
13.78
14.63
16.09
18.01
20.22
60.78
63.64
54.66
48.61
57.17
55.80
56.69
61.70
67.51
76.78
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
6.60
7.66
6.68
7.48
9.37
8.31
7.17
7.53
9.13
9.72
7.14
6.61
8.37
7.26
7.47
9.21
8.13
7.38
7.58
9.06
10.02
7.07
7.02
8.18
7.38
8.21
8.13
7.42
7.28
7.78
9.37
9.76
7.02
7.02
8.42
7.18
7.51
9.19
8,10
7.48
8.20
9.11
10.14
7.94
6.91
6.21
7.32
7.39
6.56
7.53
7.10
8.16
9.40
10.39
6.85
8.00
7.59
7.46
8.27
7.17
7.56
6.16
10.03
9.79
7.05
8.52
7.54
7.80
8.36
7.55
7.19
P.33
10.08
10.40
6.80
8.05
7.89
6.60
8.25
7.42
7.53
7.69
9.75
9.15
7.28
8.70
7.54
7.43
8.53
7.14
7.29
8.88
9.70
9.26
7.33
8.08
7.85
9.02
8.07
7.05
7.59
8.81
10.62
8.38
7.28
7.70
7.64
8.00
7.86
7.28
7.75
8.64
10.42
7.87
7.77
7.70
7.85
6.56
8.08
7.61
7.83
9.00
9.95
8,44
20.23
24.21
21.32
23.16
26.71
23.86
21.83
22.89
27.56
29.50
21.23
20.78
24,65
22.09
22.36
26.04
22.80
22.14
24.54
28.54
30.32
21.13
25.27
22.97
23.63
25.16
22.11
22.01
25.10
29.53
28.81
22.38
23.48
23.34
25.58
24.01
21.94
23.17
26.45
30.99
24.69
84.52
97.61
69.72
94.93
101.92
90.71
69.15
98.98
116.62
113.32
X108. IONEY BALANCE (Mi), 1967 30LLARS
(BILLION DOLLARS)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1946...
1947..
1948..
1949..
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
188.3
170.2
159.9
154.6
158.3
153.5
155.4
159.6
159.9
189.6
169.5
159.7
155.2
158.5
151.3
156.1
159.9
159.7
188.7
167.5
160.0
155.3
158.9
151.7
156.7
160.4
160.1
191.7
168.7
157.4
155.3
159.6
151.8
156.5
160.6
159.8
192.3
169.6
155.6
155.7
159.7
151.8
157.0
160.6
160.7
191.9
169.5
154.6
155.3
159.5
152.7
157.3
160.2
161.0
162.5
168.5
153.4
156.6
159.0
153.5
156.8
160.3
161.9
179.1
167.8
153.4
156.4
158.6
154.4
157.3
160.0
162.4
178.4
165.1
153.7
155.8
158.0
154,5
158,4
159.6
163.0
174.6
164.5
153.9
156.5
157.7
154.3
158.5
159.4
164.3
170.5
163.9
154.4
156.4
157.2
154.8
159.0
159.9
164.6
168,5
161.3
154.9
157.3
155.3
154.8
159.3
160.0
165.1
188.9
169.1
159.9
155.0
158.6
152.2
156.1
160.0
159.9
192.0
169.3
156.0
155.4
159.7
152.1
156.9
160.5
160.5
180.0
167.1
153.5
156.3
158.5
154.1
157.5
160,0
162.4
171.3
163.2
154.4
156.7
156.7
154.6
158.9
159.8
164.7
183)o
167.2
155.9
155.9
158.4
153.3
157.4
160.0
161.9
1955..
1956..
1957..
1953..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
166.0
168.6
165.2
157,9
163.6
162.9
161.6
165.5
166.1
169.3
166.7
168.4
164.3
158.5
164.1
162.2
162.0
165.3
166.3
169.9
166.4
168.5
164.1
157.7
164.8
162.1
162.4
165.3
166.5
170.3
166.8
168.6
163.5
15R.1
165.0
161.5
163.0
165.5
167.2
170.4
167.8
167.7
163.3
158.6
165.4
161.0
163.4
165.3
167.7
171.3
167.9
167.2
162.6
159.8
165.3
161.0
163.6
165.7
168.0
171.7
166.2
166.4
162.2
159.9
166.0
162.0
163.4
165.3
168.1
172.6
168.4
165.9
161.8
160.5
165.4
162.4
163.7
164.8
168.0
173.6
167.9
166.3
161.3
161.2
164.6
162.7
164.0
164.0
168.5
174.3
168.2
165.5
161.0
161.8
163.6
161.9
164.6
164.7
169.1
174.7
167.6
165.7
160.1
162.5
163.4
161.6
165.2
165.3
170.1
175.0
168,0
165.4
159.4
162.6
162.8
161.4
165.4
165.8
169.2
174.9
166,4
166.5
164.5
158.0
164.2
162.4
162.0
165.4
166.3
169.8
167.5
167.8
163.1
158.8
165.2
161.2
163.4
165.5
167.6
171.1
168.2
166.2
161.6
160.5
165.3
162.4
163.7
164.7
166.2
173,6
167.9
165.5
160.2
162.3
163.3
161.6
165.1
165.3
169.5
174.9
167.5
167.0
162,4
159,9
164.5
161.9
163.5
165.2
167.9
172.4
1965.,
1966.,
1967,,
1968.,
1969..
1970..
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
175.3
180.7
177.6
183.9
189.9
185.6
166.1
191.1
200.8
193.4
180.3
175.5
160.2
179.2
184.2
190.2
184.1
187,5
192.2
200.4
192.8
180.2
175.8
180.4
180.3
184.2
189,4
184,8
188,6
194.0
198.8
192.4
181.3
175.8
181.2
179.4
184.7
189.1
185.2
189.4
194.7
198.4
192.1
180.9
175.6
180.8
180.6
165.9
189.!
185.2
190.6
194.7
199.5
190.8
175.9
180.8
181.6
166.6
188.6
164.9
191.1
195.4
200.6
190.7
176.6
179.8
162.4
186.9
188.4
185.0
191.5
196.3
200.5
189.lt
177.1
178.5
162.7
167.2
167.3
166.0
191.5
197.2
197.0
187.3
178.0
179.1
183.4
187.9
186.8
186.7
191.9
198.0
196.3
185.3
179.1
177.8
183.9
187.9
186.6
186.2
192.0
196.6
195.3
184.2
179.2
177.8
183.8
188.8
186.0
186.1
191.7
199.2
195.8
183.8
179.5
177.9
184.0
189.6
184.8
185.8
191.1
200.9
196.0
162.9
175,5
160,4
179.0
184.1
189.8
184.8
167.4
192.4
200.0
192.9
ISO.6
175.8
160.9
180.6
185.7
186.9
185.1
190.4
194.9
199.5
191.2
177.2
179.1
162.8
187.3
187.5
185.9
191.6
197.2
197.9
187.3
179.3
177.6
163.9
168.8
185.8
186.0
191.6
199.6
195.7
183.6
177.0
179.6
181,6
186.5
188,0
185.5
190.2
196.0
198.3
188.8
XX
D. Data for New Series and Indexes —Continued
Quarterly
Monthly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
X170D. NET CHANGE IN INVENTORIES ON HAND AND ON ORDER, 1967 DOLLARS, WEjGHTEO MOVING AVERAGE
(ANNUAL RATE, BILLION DOLLARS)
II Q
III Q
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
2,31
-5.54
9.99
26.61
9.67
4.40
-12.90
4,57
-5.15
11.66
22.58
10.57
1.61
-12.25
4.52
-3.12
15.94
17.79
9.10
-4.78
-12.29
0.94
0.47
20.11
12.38
6.39
-11.24
-9.94
-3,38
2.33
21.54
8.65
4.88
-16.04
-4.99
-4.80
0.08
18.77
7.42
6.21
-18.07
-0.58
-4,97
-4.29
14.05
8.54
6.39
-17.80
1.09
-2.19
-2.25
24,95
7.15
14.95
-15.27
,,.
», •
»,.
1949..
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
-3.84
-5.72
18.05
9.24
11.32
-16.69
-2.64
25.45
6.84
17.21
-14.98
-0.90
1.61
31.35
5.37
16.32
-14.15
-2.44
4.42
32.24
6.35
9.65
-13.98
1.20
-4.75
6.78
29.03
7.51
4.09
-13.42
1955..
1956..
1957.,
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
0.82
8.21
0,57
-9.88
6.34
4.60
-7.82
10.63
0.45
3.84
1.53
8.74
-0.64
-10.45
10.12
2.55
-8.65
11.48
1.15
2.72
4.44
8.00
-2.42
-13.75
13. S5
-0.45
-7.65
9.83
4.34
3.45
5.87
7.06
-2.68
-14.76
16.76
-4.14
-3.54
5.57
7.75
6.08
5.62
7.08
-2.13
-11.47
15.81
-4.58
1.36
1.88
9.53
8.19
6.08
7.20
-2,06
-5.91
11.06
-4.14
5.44
1.43
7.95
9.71
7.81
8.07
-3.53
-1.92
7.83
-2.16
7.07
3.30
4.69
10.13
9.44
8.68
-5.24
-0.28
6.73
-1.57
7.36
5.29
2.37
10.01
7.28
9.09
-4.92
-0.04
6.32
-2.22
7.46
5.79
2.48
12.75
5.84
6.48
-6.42
0.30
5,08
3.19
6,90
6.51
4.30
14.06
6.10
3.01
-9.30
1.42
3.74
3.93
7.01
5.17
5.82
13.40
7.15
1.46
-10.86
3.91
4.83
-5.55
8.31
2.48
5.45
11.18
2.26
8.32
-0.83
-11,36
10.10
2.23
-8,04
10.65
1.96
3.34
5.86
7,11
-2,29
-10,71
14.54
-4,29
1.09
2.96
8,41
7.99
8.18
8.61
-4,56
-0,75
6.96
-1.98
7.30
4.79
3,18
10.96
6,36
3.65
-8,86
1.88
4.55
0.52
7.41
4.72
5.19
12.88
5.66
6.92
-4,14
-5.24
9.04
-0.88
1.94
5.78
4.69
8.79
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
11.58
12.01
9.92
10.07
8.36
-4.46
2.11
4.75
10.70
13.47
-18.09
13.99
14.63
7.53
8.73
4.95
-6.66
3.11
6.40
10.84
6.35
-23.12
13.94
17.71
4.92
3.77
2.65
-6.00
3.42
5.47
11.32
0.65
-27.38
11.77
19.56
2.87
1.23
3.03
-2.90
2.75
3.79
11.51
-2.77
9.47
20.06
2.46
3.67
6.10
-0.68
0.51
4,9s
13.25
-2.70
9.44
19.64
3.61
6.21
B.46
-0,36
-2.82
7.48
17.44
0.30
10.38
19.34
5.81
5.31
10.83
1.71
-6.06
7.84
21.33
2.98
11.29
19.07
9.34
3.35
11.24
4.42
-6,48
8.29
19.97
-2.06
9.53
16.62
11.44
4.38
10.46
3.90
-2.68
11.09
16,81
-9.61
7.13
14.74
9.10
8.07
8.59
-0.26
2.11
14.58
16,38
-12,32
6,33
13.34
5.68
10.80
4,40
-1.80
3.49
15.19
17.79
-11.77
6.80
11,53
7.21
10.84
0.54
-0.46
3.38
12,34
16,97
-12.61
13.17
14.78
7.46
7.52
5.32
-5.71
2.88
5.54
10.95
6.82
-22.86
10.23
19,75
2,98
3.70
5.86
-1.31
0.15
5.41
14.07
-1,72
10,40
18.34
8.86
4.35
10.84
3.34
-5.07
9.07
19.37
-2.90
7,42
13.20
7.33
9.90
4.51
-0,85
2.99
14,04
17.71
-12.23
10.30
16.52
6.66
6.37
6.63
-1.13
0.24
8.51
15.53
-2.51
-1.83
X201. PERCENT CHANGE IN SENSITIVE PRICES, WPI CRUDE MATERIALS EXCLUDING FOODS AND FEEDS,WEIGHTED MOVING AVG.
PERCENT)
-4.24
7.06
29,29
7.84
6,05
-13,43
3,34
-2,60
15.90
17.58
8,69
-4,80
-11.49
-4,38
-0.63
18.12
8,20
5.83
-17.30
-1,49
-2! 42
9.71
20.01
7,38
-0,28
-10.42
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
0.19
1.48
-2.92
2.50
-0.36
-0.54
-0.02
1.22
0.09
1.44
-2.25
2.82
-0.99
-1.02
0.46
0.85
1.79
1.04
-1.13
2.79
-1.69
-1.12
0.59
-0.12
2.79
0.60
0.09
2.63
-1.90
-0.88
-0.17
-0.64
2,28
-0.21
0.85
2.51
-1.56
-0.27
-1.38
-0.07
1,57
-0.82
1.04
2.42
-1.39
0.07
-1.78
0.68
1.79
-0.70
• 0.56
2.01
-1.31
0.42
-1.56
0.78
•, *
-0.98
0.35
1.33
-0.80
0.45
-1.20
•.•
1.25
-2.66
1.89
0.00
-0.34
0.16
0.50
1,56
1,03
-1.10
2,75
-1.53
-1.01
0.30
0.03
1.88
-0.58
0,82
2.31
-1,42
0,07
-1.57
0.46
-0.98
1.83
-0.40
-0.52
-0.17
-0.05
1948..
1949..
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
1.99
-0.59
0.04
1.77
-1.20
0.42
-1.31
1.72
-0.92
0.28
1.39
-0.82
0.40
-1.20
1.17
-1.44
0.74
0.82
-0.38
0.52
-1.08
0.94
-2.16
1.33
0.35
-0.30
0.42
-0.38
2.1?
1.32
-2.89
1.84
0.01
-0.17
0.09
0.66
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
0.61
0.86
0.91
-1.12
0.16
-0.06
-0.47
-0.32
0.05
0.28
0.88
0.83
0.25
-0.27
-0.03
-0.50
-0.12
0.08
0.06
0.14
1.39
0.32
-0.60
0.09
0.49
-1.04
0.30
0.10
-0.03
0.03
1.39
0.12
-1,14
-0.10
0.83
-1.14
0.66
-0.51
-0.10
0.25
0.69
0.15
-0.77
-0.19
0.59
-0.77
0.79
-0.79
-0.05
0.48
0.18
-0.66
0.17
-0,10
0.29
-0.35
0.56
-0.74
-0.09
0.48
0.52
-1.66
0.87
0.32
0.18
-0.40
0.34
-0.56
-0.07
0.38
1.32
-1.10
0.65
0.60
0.13
-0.77
0.34
-0.42
-0.14
0.55
2.11
0.40
-0.59
0.70
0.16
-0.84
0.41
-0.23
-0.21
0,76
1.86
1.19
-1.74
1.07
0.24
-0.77
0.44
-0.07
-0.11
0.69
0,96
0.94
-2.30
1.31
0.39
-0.77
-0.06
-0.09
0.09
0.58
0.62
0.91
-1.94
0.89
0,24
-0,66
-0,46
0.02
0,29
0.69
0.96
0.67
0.19
-0.43
0.21
-0.53
-0.10
-0.05
0.03
0.15
0,75
-0.13
-0.58
-0.13
0.57
-0.75
0.67
-0.68
-0.08
0.40
1.32
-0.79
0.31
0.54
0.16
-0,67
0,36
-0.40
-0.14
0.56
1.15
1.01
-1.99
1.09
0.29
-0.73
-0.03
-0,05
0,09
0.65
1.04
0.19
-0.52
0.27
0.31
-0.67
0.23
-0.29
-0,03
0.44
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
0.44
0.49
-0.47
0.58
0.71
0.38
0.22
0.35
1.X2
4.06
-1.39
-0.12
0.71
-0.62
0.46
0.53
0.72
0.26
0.56
0.95
4.U2
-1.70
-0.39
0.93
-0.74
0.30
0.59
0.87
0.23
0.87
0.90
-0.11
0.80
-0.83
0.05
0.89
0.80
0.54
0.40
-0.66
-0.32
1.20
0.58
0.1.1
0.69
1.59
4.02
0.62
0.21
-0.25
-0.54
1.21
0.3 7
0.50
0.53
2.08
1.61
0.40
0.27
0.12
-0.21
1.04
0.14
0.33
0.48
2.16
0.95
0.26
-0.21
0.15
0.30
1.12
-0.24
0.09
0.811
1.85
1.70
0.26
-0,92
0.08
0.43
1.26
-0.19
0.15
0.95
1.90
2.26
0.36
-1.12
0,10
0.43
1.12
0.38
0.23
1.03
2.36
1.29
0.34
-0.70
0,29
0.54
0.65
0.55
0.20
1.13
3.27
0.18
0,32
-0.32
0.55
0.72
0.32
0.39
0.22
1.18
3.88
-0.53
-0.02
0.71
-0.61
0.45
0.61
0.66
0.24
0.59
0.99
4.47
-I.I16
0.35
0.47
-0,58
-0.27
1,10
0.58
0.35
0.68
1.61
3.70
0.31
-0.29
0,12
0.17
1.14
-0.10
0.19
0.76
1.97
1.64
0.34
-0.71
0.31
0.56
0.70
0. UI)
0.22
1.11
3.17
0.31
0.24
0.04
-0.19
0.23
0,69
0.1)0
0.25
0.79
1.94
2,53
X136
<l.9!>
-1.28
O.U
0.83
1.16
5.li6
-0.41
PERCENT CHANGE
K63
N TOTAL LIQUID ASSETS, WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE
PERCENT)
o!e5
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
**
.»,
1952 ,
1953..
1954..
0.54
0.21
0.53
0.25
0.60
0.24
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964,.
0.42
0.45
0.40
0.18
0.66
0.18
0.25
0.68
0.67
0.62
0.42
0.42
0.45
0.22
0.64
0.25
0.29
0.65
0.72
0.60
1965.,
1966.,
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972.,
1973,.
1974..
1975..
0.49
0.73
0.35
0.71
0.78
0.25
0.70
0.73
1.12
0.82
0.56
0.46
0.70
0.47
0.71
0.76
0.27
0.82
0.82
1.07
0.89
0.60
NOTE:
o'.il
0.23
0.49
0.51
0.28
* "
0.57
0,23
0.45
0.50
0.29
0.54
0.39
0,14
0.60
0.16
0.30
0,63
0.56
0.61
0,62
0.40
0.42
0.45
0.21
0.63
0.25
0.30
0.66
0.70
0.60
0.47
0.19
0.45
0.25
0,64
0.23
0.48
0.62
0,72
0.60
0.66
0.17
0.37
0.28
0,64
0,21
0,51
0.66
0.73
0,61
0,60
0,37
0.18
0.53
0.24
0.35
0.52
0.55
0.63
0.67
0.53
0.28
0.36
0.32
0,54
0.26
0.45
0.62
0.69
0,62
0.75
0,35
0.72
0.76
0.29
0.63
0.73
1.10
0.72
0.52
0.50
0.68
0.48
0,58
0,55
0.57
0.70
0,54
0.47
0,84
0.97
1.05
0.94
0.75
0.38
0,69
0,82
0.21
0,58
0,85
0.96
0.98
0.69
0.76
0.36
0.75
0.75
0.32
0.62
0.78
1.03
0.74
0,49
0,65
0,49
0,62
0.74
0,46
0,49
0,82
0.95
0,96
0,74
0.72
0.19
0.35
0.66
0.22
0.40
0.55
0.24
0.51
0.53
0.27
0.56
0,46
0.33
0,58
0.33
0.43
0,58
0.19
0.47
0.56
0.16
0.44
0.37
0.38
0.49
0.24
0.59
0.32
0.36
0.64
0.70
0.59
0.34
0.27
0.50
0.25
0.59
0.32
0.42
0.66
0.69
0.59
0.44
0.16
0.45
0.25
0.63
0.23
0,48
0.62
0.71
0.59
0,62
0.13
0.41
0.26
0.70
0.14
0.54
0.59
0.75
0.62
0.71
0.14
0.38
0.24
0.72
0.12
0.58
0.60
0.75
0.63
0.65
0.15
0,38
0.26
0.67
0.20
0.53
0.69
0.74
0.61
0.62
0.22
0.34
0.34
0.53
0.32
0.43
0,69
0.71
0.60
0.64
0.32
0.24
0.44
0.34
0.38
0.42
0.57
0,65
0.67
0.62
0.39
0.15
0.56
0.21
0.37
0.52
0.51
0.63
0.71
0.55
0.62
0.61
0.71
0.69
0.32
0.93
0.93
0.99
0.89
0.65
0.63
0.57
0.62
0.68
0.64
0.41
0.92
0.97
0.99
0.93
0.68
0.55
0.56
0.55
0.68
0.56
0.49
0.82
0.98
1.06
0.96
0,57
0.52
0,54
0.73
0.43
0.51
0,79
0.97
1.10
0.93
0.68
0.44
0.62
0.81
0.26
0.53
0.84
0.98
1.06
0.83
0.78
0.35
0.70
0.85
0.16
0.59
0.87
0.96
0.98
0.68
0.80
0.35
0.74
0.81
0.22
0.63
0.85
0.95
0.89
0.55
0.76
0.36
0.77
0,75
0,32
0.63
0.82
0,97
0,79
0.46
0.78
0,36
0.76
0.73
0.35
0,61
0.78
1.02
0.71
0.48
Data
XXI
**
...
0.71
0.20
0.40
0.76
0.19
0,71
0.74
0.28
0.82
0.83
1.06
0.87
0.60
D. Data for New Series and Indexes-Continued
Monthly
Quarterly
Year
Annual
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
ME* COMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS/
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
10.
II Q
III Q
IV Q
ORIGINAL TREND
1967«100)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1947...
1948...
1949..
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
76.9
68.6
73.2
79.6
75.8
80.5
72.7
75.4
68.1
73.9
78.7
76.1
80.6
73.3
75.4
67.2
74.9
78,6
76.4
81.0
73.4
75.7
66.8
76.5
77.7
75.9
80.6
74.1
75.3
66.4
77.8
77.2
76.4
79.7
75.4
75.4
66.2
78.7
76.0
77.3
78.2
76.2
74.3
67.6
80.3
75.3
76.7
78.0
77.1
73.5
69.3
81.2
74.9
78.0
76.7
77.4
72.6
71.2
79.7
75.5
79.7
74.2
78.2
72.2
71.6
79.7
75.0
79.4
73.5
80.2
70.8
71.9
79.0
74.8
79.6
72.5
81.9
69.8
72.2
78.5
75.3
80.0
72.6
82.4
75.9
68,0
74.0
79.0
76.1
80.7
73.1
75.5
66.5
77.7
77.0
76.5
79.5
75.2
73.5
69,4
60.4
75.2
76,1
76.3
77.6
70.9
71.9
79.1
75.0
79.7
72.9
81.5
73)9
68.9
77.8
76,6
77.6
77.3
76.9
1955..
1956..
1957..
1958..
1959..
i960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
83.9
86.4
81.8
71.9
85.7
84.2
77.8
87.0
86.8
91.9
85.5
85.5
80.9
71.7
87.3
82.1
78.5
87.8
87.8
92.3
85.7
85.9
80.5
71.8
88.9
60.0
80.0
87.5
88.4
92.6
86.0
85.7
79.6
72.2
89.1
80.0
81.9
86.8
89.3
93.9
86.4
83.6
79.5
73.9
88.9
79.9
82.o
85.0
90.6
95.3
86.7
82.8
79.9
76.1
88.2
79.6
84.0
83.8
90.0
95.3
87.8
83.1
79.6
77.4
67.9
80.0
84.0
84.6
89.4
96.1
87.8
82.8
78.7
79.3
86.6
79.9
85.2
85.0
89.4
96.7
88.5
83.1
77.3
80.9
85.7
80.0
84.1
85.5
90.5
98.5
87.6
83.4
75.4
82.0
83.8
79.4
85.5
85.0
91.1
98.7
87.8
83.1
73.5
84.1
83.0
78.5
86.8
65.9
91.3
99.2
87.0
82.9
72.4
83,7
84.3
77.6
86.9
66.1
91.7
98.7
85.0
85.9
81.1
71.8
87.3
82.1
78.6
87.4
87.7
92.3
86.4
64.0
79.7
74.1
88.7
79.8
82.9
85.2
90.0
94,8
88.0
83.0
78.5
79.2
86.7
80.0
84.4
85.0
89.8
97.1
87.5
83.1
73.8
63.3
83.7
78.5
86.4
85.7
91.4
98.9
86,7
84,0
78.3
77.1
66.6
80.1
83.1
85.8
89.7
95.8
1965..
1966..
1967..
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
99.0
106.3
95.0
104.4
113.4
101.9
103.0
110.9
125.0
98,8
107.2
95.4
105.6
112.4
101,1
104,5
112.8
125.7
117.7
90.6
99.2
107.6
95.6
105.0
111.0
100.6
106,6
115.0
124.5
119.6
91.5
98.8
106,6
95.9
103.5
112.3
100.7
107.1
116.4
124.1
117.4
95.3
99,5
104.8
96.9
104.0
111.0
100.8
107.9
116.3
124.9
116.5
99.5
102.7
99.2
106.1
110.9
100.4
107.8
116.3
126.6
113.8
100.3
101.3
100.6
107.7
109.5
100.5
108.3
117.3
126.5
112.9
100.4
99.2
103.4
107.3
108.7
100.0
107.7
119.6
123.9
108.8
101.0
98.3
103.7
109.4
108.4
100.2
107.7
121.4
122.3
104.3
101.9
96.6
104.1
111.5
108.0
99.5
109.1
123.0
122,4
100.2
102.8
95.7
104.3
112.2
105.8
99.6
109.1
123.5
121.7
96.8
104.1
95.2
105.9
113.0
104,1
101.6
110.1
125.0
119.8
94.8
99.0
107.0
95.3
105.0
112.3
101.2
104.7
112.9
125.1
118.3
91.0
99.3
104.7
97.3
104.8
111.7
100.6
107.6
116.3
125.2
115.9
100.6
99.6
102.6
108,1
108.9
100,2
107.9
119.4
124.2
108.7
102.9
95.8
104.8
112.2
106.0
100.3
109.4
123.8
121.3
97.3
100.4
101.6
100.0
107.6
109.7
100.6
107.4
118.1
124,0
110.0
117.5
90,9
NEW :OMPOSITE INDEX OF 12 LEADING INDICATORS, REVERSE rREND ADJUSTED
1967-100)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
1948...
1949.,
1950..
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..
38.3
35.4
39.2
44.1
43.5
47.9
44.9
37.7
35.2
39.6
43.7
43.9
48.1
45.4
37.8
34.9
40.3
43.8
44,1
48.5
45.6
3H.0
34.8
41.3
43.5
44.0
48.4
46.1
37.9
34.7
42.1
43.3
44.4
48.0
47.1
38.1
34.7
42.7
42.8
45.1
47.3
47.7
37.7
35.5
43.7
42.5
44.9
47.3
48.4
37.3
36.5
44.3
42.4
45.7
46.6
48.8
37.0
37.6
43.7
42.9
46.9
45.3
49,4
36.9
37.9
43.8
42.7
46.8
45.0
50.8
36.3
38.2
43.5
42.7
47.1
44.5
52.1
35.9
38.5
43.4
43.1
47.5
44.6
52.5
37.9
35.2
39.7
43.9
43.8
48.2
45.3
38.0
34.7
42.0
43,2
44.5
47.9
47.0
37.3
36.5
43.9
42.6
45,8
46.4
48.9
36.4
38.2
43,6
42.8
47.1
44.7
51.8
». •
37^4
36.2
42.3
43.1
45,3
46.8
48.2
1955..
1956..
1957.,
1958.,
1959..
i960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..
53.7
57.3
56.2
51.2
63.3
64.4
61.7
71.5
74.0
81.1
54.8
56.9
55.8
51.2
64.6
63.0
62,5
72,4
75.1
81.7
55.1
57.3
55.7
51.4
66.0
61.6
63.S
72.3
75.7
82.2
55.5
57.3
55.2
51.9
66.4
61.8
65.5
72.0
76.8
83.7
56.0
56.1
55.3
53.3
66.4
61.9
66.6
70.7
78.1
85.2
56.3
55.7
55.7
55.0
66.1
61.8
67.6
70.0
77.8
65.4
57.2
56.1
55.7
56.2
66.1
62.3
67.8
70.8
77.6
86.4
57.4
56.1
55.2
57.7
65.3
62.4
69.0
71.4
77.7
87.2
56.0
56.4
54.4
59.0
64,8
62.7
68.3
72.0
78,9
89.0
57.7
56.8
53.2
60.0
63.6
62.4
69.7
71.8
79.7
89.5
57.8
56.8
52.0
61.7
63.1
61.9
70.9
72.8
80.1
90.3
57.5
56.8
51.4
61.6
64.3
61.4
71.2
73.2
80.6
90.1
54.5
57.2
55.9
51.3
64.6
63.0
62.7
72.1
74.9
81.7
55.9
56.4
55.4
53.4
66.3
61.8
66.6
70.9
77.6
84.8
57.5
56.2
55.1
57.6
65,4
62.5
66.4
71.4
78.1
87.5
57.7
56.6
52.2
61.1
63.7
61.9
70.6
72.6
80.2
90.0
56.4
56.6
54.6
55.8
65.0
62.3
67.0
71.7
77.7
66,0
1965..
1966..
1967.,
1968..
1969..
1970..
1971..
1972..
1973..
1974..
1975..
90.7
100.8
93.4
106.4
119.6
111.5
116.8
130.5
152,4
148.5
119.1
90.7
102.0
94,1
107.9
119.1
111.0
118.9
133.1
153.6
149.1
119.0
91.3
102.7
94.6
107.6
116.0
110.8
121.7
136.0
152.7
152.0
120.6
91.2
102.0
95.2
106.4
119.7
111.3
122.7
138.1
152.6
149.7
125.9
92.1
100.6
96.4
108.2
119.6
111.7
123.9
138.4
154.1
149.0
92.4
98.9
99.0
109.8
118.9
HI.6
124.1
138.8
156.7
146.0
93.5
97.6
100.7
111.6
117.7
112.1
125.1
140.5
157.0
145.3
93.9
96.1
103.6
111.7
117.3
111.6
124.7
143.7
154.3
140.3
94.7
95.5
104,4
114,2
U7.3
U2.4
125.1
146.3
152.8
135,0
95.8
94.2
105.1
116.7
117.2
111,9
127.2
148.6
153.2
130.1
96.9
93.5
105.7
117.8
115.1
112.3
127.6
149.7
152.9
126.0
98.5
93.3
107.6
119,0
113.6
115.2
129.1
152.0
150.9
123.8
90.9
101.8
94,0
107,3
119.0
111.1
119.1
133.2
152.9
149.9
119.6
91.9
100,5
96.9
108.1
94.0
96.5
103.0
112.6
97.1
93.7
106.1
117.8
119.4
111.5
123.6
138.4
154.5
148.2
117.4
112.1
125.0
143.5
154.7
140.2
115.3
113.1
128.0
150.1
152.3
126.6
93.5
98.1
100.0
111.5
117.8
112.0
123.9
141.3
153.6
141.2
xxu
6 SESA PROJECTS
for economic
analysis
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST A monthly report for analyzing
economic fluctuations over a short span of years.
This report brings together approximately 600 economic time series in a form convenient for analysts whether their approach to the study of current business conditions and prospects is the national income model, the leading indicators, anticipations
and intentions, or a combination of these. Other types of data such as foreign trade,
Federal Government activities, and international series are included to facilitate a
more complete analysis.
Data are presented in charts and tables. Appendixes provide historical data, series
descriptions, seasonal adjustment factors, and measures of variability. A computer
tape containing data for most of the series is available for purchase.
DEFENSE INDICATORS A monthly report for analyzing the current and prospective impact of defense activity on the national economy.
This report brings together the principal time series on defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national economy. These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders, shipments, inventories, expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 60 time series included are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the activities they measure occur in the defense orderproduction-delivery process. Charts and analytical tables facilitate interpretation.
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH A report for the study of economic trends over a long span of years, 1860-1970.
This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive,
long-range view of the U.S. economy. It is a basic research document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together under one cover, in
meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical basis for a study of longterm economic trends. A computer tape file of the time series included in the report
is available for purchase.
COMPUTER PROGRAMS FOR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS The
source statements for FORTRAN IV programs used by SESA in its analysis
of time series are available on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMS.—Two variants of the Census computer program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations. They are particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The X - l l variant is used for adjusting monthly data and
the X-11Q for quarterly data. These programs make additive as well as multiplicative
adjustments and compute many summary and analytical measures.
DIFFUSION INDEX PROGRAM.—A computer program for computing diffusion indexes,
cumulated diffusion indexes, and summary measures of the properties of each index.
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS A monthly report for analyzing current economic developments.
This report provides a useful combination of current data for more than 2,500
statistical series and significant articles analyzing economic developments. These
data and analyses include such areas as the national income and product accounts,
the balance of payments accounts, plant and equipment expenditures, regional
personal income, and the input-output accounts.
BUSINESS STATISTICS A biennial reference volume containing
statistical series reported currently in the Survey of Current Business.
This report provides historical data back to 1947 for nearly 2,500 time series. The
series are accompanied by concise descriptions as to their composition, methods of
compilation, comparability, revisions, and availability. Also listed are the names and
addresses of organizations which provide the basic data for the series.
xxiv
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
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Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional ar•angements. Variations attributable to
lolidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
jates, such as Easter. An additional adustment is sometimes necessary for
series which contain considerable varia:ion due to the number of working or
:rading days in each month. As used in
his report, the term "seasonal adjustment"
ncludes trading-day and holiday adjustnents where they have been made.
Vlost of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
n most cases, these are the official figures
eleased by the source agencies. However,
:
or the special purposes of this report, a
lumber of series not ordinarily published
n seasonally adjusted form are shown
lere on a seasonally adjusted basis.
clCO Moving Averages
vlonth-to-month changes in a series are
jften dominated by erratic movements.
\ZICD (months for cyclical dominance) is
in estimate of the appropriate span over
vhich to observe cyclical movements in a
nonthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
iverage change in the cyclical factor is
;reater than that in the irregular factor,
"he more erratic a series is, the larger the
will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the
smoothest series and 6 for the most
erratic. MCD moving averages (that is,
moving averages of the period equal to
MCD) tend to have about the same degree
of smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-term
moving average of a series with an MCD
of 5 will show its cyclical movements
about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic
activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As
a matter of general practice, neither new
reference turning dates nor the shading
for recessions will be entered on the charts
until after both the new reference peak
and the new reference trough bounding
the shaded area have been designated.
This policy is followed because of the
conceptual and empirical difficulties of
designating a current recession and the
practical difficulties of terminating the
shading of a current recession without
including part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME AMD
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by trie Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories
valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports.
Exports include receipts from domestic
output sold abroad, transportation, travel,
other services, fees and royalties and income on investments in foreign areas.
Imports include purchases of foreign
goods, payments for transportation, travel
and other services, military expenditures
as well as payments of income on foreign
investments in the United States. More
detail on U.S. balance of payments is
provided in section D.
Government purchases of goods and serv
ices includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions Of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section A. Other major aggregates taken from
the national income and product accounts
are described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Personal consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
1
Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an
accounting period. It is the total of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (195S) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated. The implicit price deflator (computed by dividing the current-dollar data
by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP
is also shown.
SECTION B
7f'M
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73
cyclical indicators is the basis for this
section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses the same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 79 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists
of 26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators. In addition, there are five indexes
based on leading indicators which have
been grouped by economic process. These
indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators has been "reverse trend adjusted" so
that its long-run trend parallels that of
the coincident index. This facilitates comparisons among the leading, coincident,
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Economic
Process
|. EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(13 series)
||, PRODUCTION,
INCOME.
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(9 series)
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
IV. INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
V
Cyclical
Timing
W.
LEADING INDICATORS
(40 series)
fit.-- ->.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(26 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(13 series)
•
'.;•'••;.,V-:-,,
;••
; v ~ . •.'
v -. -.
": •
>-=
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(14 series)
V|
MONEY
AND CREDIT
(20 series)
and lagging indexes and tends to shorten
the leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these
series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments. In
some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D
OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com-
prehensive selection. In general, these
series reflect processes which are not
direct measures of economic activity but
which do have a significant bearing on
business conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures,
and their balance, and selected defense
activities. The receipts and expenditures
data are from the national income and
product accounts. The defense series are
only a few of the many available. For a
more comprehensive picture of defense activities, see Defense Indicators, a monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis publication.
Three other groups of series are included
in this section. The price movements
series consist of consumer and wholesale
price indexes and their major components.
The series on wages and productivity include measures of hourly earnings and
output per man-hour and also rates of
change for most of these measures. The
final group of series measures the civilian
labor force and its major components, including unemployment rates for selected
segments of the labor force.
SECTION E
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic varia-
bles (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected
group of economic series. Percent changes
are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or
for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER.
Basic Data
(May) (Fd».)
T
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("6" = June)
•g , Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are
f
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L - l " is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted i y 2 , 2,
or 2y2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ( " I " =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE in the
back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according
to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, or
2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES where series are listed in
numerical order according to series numbers within each of the
Digest's six sections.
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Percent change
Unit
of
measure
Series title
Average
1972
1973
1974
4th Q
1973
1st Q
1974
2dQ
1974
3d 0
1974
4th Q
1974
1st Q
1975
2dQ
to
3dQ
1974
3dQ
to
4th Q
1974
4th Q
to
1st Q
1975
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1.
Gross National Product
200.
205.
210.
215.
217.
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1950 dollars . .
220.
222.
224.
225.
226.
National income, current dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars . .
Disposable personal income, 1958 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income,
current dollars
Per capita disposable pers. income, 1958 dol. .
A2.
227.
A3.
230.
231.
232.
233.
234.
236.
237.
Gross private domestic investment, total
Fixed investment, total nonresidential
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures .
Fixed investment, producers' durable equip. .
Fixed investment, residential structures
Change in business inventories, total 2
Total
Federal
National defense
State and local
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adj.
Net interest
A8.
do
do
946.5 1065.6 1142.5 1106.3 1118.8 U30.2 1155.5 1165.4 1149.8
914.9 1055.0 1150.5 1099.3 1112.5 1134.6 1168.2 1186.9 1193.4
802.5 903.7 979.7 939.4 950.6 966.5 993.1 1008.8 1015.5
580.5 619.6 602.8 622.9 610.3 603.5 602.9 594.8 591.0
2.2
3.0
2.8
-0.1
0.9
1.6
1.6
-1.3
-1.3
0.5
0.7
-0.6
220
222
224
225
3,843
2*779
4,295
2,945
4,623
2,845
4,452
2,952
4,497
2,887
4,565
2,850
4,681
2,842
4,745
2,798
4,768
2,775
2.5
-0.3
1.4
-1.5
0.5
-0.8
226
227
do
729.0
527.3
118.4
78.8
39.7
299.7
310.9
805.2
552.1
130.3
86.9
43.4
338.0
336.9
876.7
539.5
127.5
90.0
37.5
380.2
369.0
823.9
546.3
124.3
86.3
38.0
352.1
347.4
840.6
539.7
123.9
88.1
35.8
364.4
352.4
869
542
129.5
91.5
38.0
375.8
363.8
901.3
547.2
136.1
92.5
43.6
389.0
376.2
895.8
528.2
120.7
88.1
32.6
391.7
383.5
913.2
531.5
124.9
89.6
35.3
398.8
389.5
3.7
0.8
5.1
1.1
14.7
3.5
3.4
-0.6
-3.5
-11.3
-4.8
-25.2
0.7
1.9
1.9
0.6
3.5
1.7
8.3
1.8
1.6
230
231
232
233
234
236
237
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
.do
.do
.do
179.3
116.8
41.1
75.7
54.0
8.5
209.4
136.8
47.0
89.8
57.2
15.4
209.4
149.2
52.0
97.1
46.0
14.2
224.5
141.9
49.3
92.6
53.6
28.9
210.5
145.2
51.3
93.9
48.4
16.9
211.8
149.4
52.2
97.2
48.8
13.5
205.8
150.9
51.0
99.9
46.2
8.7
209.4
151.2
53.7
97.5
40.4
17.8
163.1
146.9
52.8
94.2
35.3
-19.2
-2.8
1.0
-2.3
2.8
-5.3
-4.8
1.7
0.2
5.3
-2.t
-12.6
9.1
• 22.1
-2.8
-1.7
-3.4
-12.6
-37.0
240
241
242
243
244
245
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
-6.0
72.4
78.4
3.9
100.4
96.4
2.1
140.2
138.1
9.3
113.6
104.3
11.3
131.2
119.9
-1.5
138.5
140.0
-3.1
143.6
146.7
1.9
147.5
145.7
9.3
143.4
134.1
-1.6
3.7
4.8
5.0
2.7
-0.7
7.4
-2.8
-8.0
250
252
253
do
255.7
104.9
74.8
150.8
276.4
106.6
74.4
169.8
309.2
116.9
78.7
192.3
286.4
108.4
75.3
177.9
296.3
111.5
75.8
184.8
304.4
114.3
76.6
190.1
312.3
117.2
78.4
195.1
323.8
124.5
84.0
199.3
331.6
126.5
84.7
205.1
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.6
3.7
6.2
7.1
2.2
2.4
1.6
0.8
2.9
260
262
264
266
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do
214.3
7.1
321.0
1.4
240.9
9.4
366.5
6.0
249.2
7.7
406.9
6.5
240.6
14.8
384.1
14.1
242.3
8.7
392.8
8.2
2t8.5
-1.8
402.9
15.4
259.8
5.7
413.2
3.0
246.2
18.3
418.6
-0.5
252.9
-13.4
433.2
-5.7
4.5
7.5
2.6
-12.4
-5.2
12.6
1.3
-3.5
2.7
-31.7
3.5
-5.2
270
271
274
275
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
.do.
do.
707.1
75.9
25.9
92.2
45.6
786.0
96.1
26.1
105.1
52.3
855.8
93.0
26.5
105.6
61.6
814.8
103.2
26.4
106.4
55.5
828.8
98.4
26.4
107.7
57.5
848.3
89.9
26.3
105.6
60.1
868.2
92.1
26.6
105.8
62.8
877.7
91.6
26.8
103.4
65.9
875.6
84.9
27.0
93.4
68.9
2.3
2.4
1.1
0.2
4.5
1.1
-0.5
0.8
-2.3
4.9
-0.2
-7.3
0.7
-9.7
4.6
280
282
284
286
288
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
173.4
52.6
214.4
74.4
207.5
77.0
231.7
89.3
224.5
64.4
206.3
71.5
196.4
65.5
202.9
86.5
165.7
75.9
-4.8
-8.4
3.3
32.1
-18.3
-12.3
290
292
.do.
.do.
.do.
23.3
102.9
-5.1
25.7
110.8
3.5
17.3
119.5
-6.3
26.2
113.9
2.3
23.9
115.8
0.4
17.1
118.6
-1.0
9.9
120.7
0.2
18.1
122.9
-24.6
21.0
125.2
-56.4
-42.1
1.8
1.2
82.8
1.8
-24.8
16.0
1.9
-31.8
294
296
298
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do
do
785.4
7.0
83.7
34.3
39.1
828.4
10.8
94.4
32.9
44.2
812.5
8.7
94.0
24.0
825.7
20.0
96.0
29.8
41.6
819.9
10.6
96,
26,
29.2
818.9
8.
96.5
25.7
32.6
818.1
5.0
94.1
23.6
793.1
10.9
89.2
20.4
33.6
791.9
-11.7
83.8
17.3
-0.1
-3.2
-2.5
-8.2
19.3
-3.1
5.9
-5.2
-13.6
-13.6
-0.2
-22.6
-6.1
-15.2
-20.5
273
246
247
248
249
.do
61.0
57.3
56.4
56.3
56.3
82.1
87.0
89.3
89.7
89.5
26.3
12.4
18.4
42.1
54.1
Ann.
rate, dol.
do....
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
do
do
do
do
National Income Components
A9.
Real GNP (1958 dollars)
Final sales. 1958 dollars
Change in bus. inventories, 1958 dollars2
Fixed investment, nonresidential, 1958 dollars
Fixed investment, residential struc, 1958 dol.
Gross auto product, 1958 dollars
Federal Government purchases of goods
and services, 1958 dollars
State and local government purchases of
goods and services, 1958 dollars
E1.
do .
Saving
Gross saving, total
Personal saving
Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
Capital consumption allowances
Government surplus or deficit, total 2
A1O.
207.
do
Final Sales and Inventories
280.
282.
284.
286.
288.
267.
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
do
Final sales, durable goods
Change in business inventories, dur. goods2
Final sales, nondurable goods
Change in bus. inventories, nondur. goods 2 .
273.
246.
247.
248.
249.
263.
200
205
210
215
217
Government Purchases o f Goods
and Services
270.
271.
274.
275.
296.
298.
-1.0
-3.0
2.0
-1.1
-3.1
Foreign Trade
Net exports of goods and services2
Exports
Imports
A7.
290.
292.
294.
1.0
-2.3
3.4
0.8
-2.5
Gross Private Domestic Investment
A6.
260.
262.
264.
266.
2.3
-0.5
2.9
2.1
-0.7
Personal Consumption Expenditures
A5.
250.
262.
253.
1158.0 1294.9 1397.4 1344.0 1358.8 1383.8 1416.3 1430.9 1417.1
792.5 839.2 821.2 845.7 830.5 827.1 823.1 804.0 780.2
146.1 154.3 170.2 158.9 163.6 167.3 172.1 178.0 181.6
5,544 6,154 6,592 6,369 6,428 6,536 6,676 6,730 6,654
3/79* 3,988 3,874 4,007 3,929 3,907 3,880 3,782 3,664
National and Personal Income
Total, current dollars
Total, 1958 dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Durable goods, exc. autos, current d o l l a r s . . .
Automobiles, current dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, current dollars
A4.
240.
241.
242.
243.
244.
245.
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
1958=100
Ann. rate, dol. . .
do
.do
33.6
56.5
89.5
38.9
56.5
89.4
57.0
89.3
26.7
57.4
90.2
0.4
0.9
0.7
263
-0.1
-0.1
1.0
267
12.7
27.9
Actual and Potential G N P
GNP gap (potential less actual), 1958 d o l . 2 . . .
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
64.6
66.8
94.7
127.4
32.7 207
5
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Percent change
Basic data'
Serin titla
Unit
of
measure
Feb.
Average
3dQ
1974
4th Q
1974
1st Q
1975
Feb.
1975
Apr.
1975
Mar.
1975
Mar.
1975
Mar.
to
Apr.
1975
3d Q
to
4th Q
1974
4th Q
to
1st Q
1976
1973
1974
1967=100.
. . . do .
.do .
.do.
.do.
.do .
124.0
153.6
163. 4
155.5
138.5
164.4
110.0
141.2
171.2
165.8
136.8
205.1
108.7
140.2
176.6
169.2
138.1
213.8
97.3
126.6
163.3
165.5
132.2
219.7
91.0
119.6
152.5
156.1
123.7
213.7
90.6
119.0
153.2
156.4
124.0
212.3
91.5
120.6
151.5
154.0
121.9
211.6
95.3
125.9
157.8
153.8
121.6
209.1
1.0
1.3
-1.1
-1.5
-1.7
-0.3
4.2
4.4
4.2
-0.1
-0.2
-1.2
-10.5
-9.7
-7.5
-2.2
-4.3
2.8
-6.5
-5.5
-6.6
-5.7
.6.4
-2.7
102.0
120.3
123.2
118.6
116.1
92.6
114.9
133.0
125.0
110.7
94.1
116.0
136.7
127.6
111.8
85.5
108.9
124.6
122.9
100.1
81.3
104.3
111.8
115.7
90.2
80.9
104.3
111.8
115.7
91.0
81.8
104.3
110.5
114.5
89.2
NA
109.2
111.7
115.3
NA
1.1
0.0
-1.2
-1.0
-2.0
NA
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.
4,7
1.1
0.7
NA
-9.1
-6.1
-8.9
-3.7
-10.5
-4.9
-4.2
.10.3
-5.9
-9.9
tO.7
40.0
40.1
39.7
38.9
38.8
38.8
39.0
0.0
0.5
-1.0
-2.0
.do.
Per 100 employ. .
3.8
4.8
3.2
4.1
3.4
4.3
2.9
3.2
2.3
3.3
2.3
3.3
2.3
3.5
2.2
3.9
0.0
0.2
-0.1
0.4
-0.5
-1.1
-0.6
0.1
Thousands
Per 100 employ. .
2*0
0.9
349
1.5
328
1.2
457
2.4
548
3.2
550
3.4
545
2.8
517
2.5
0.9
0.6
5.1
0.3
-39.3
-1.2
-19.9
-0.8
1967=100
122
106
112
86
71
71
70
71
-1.4
1.4
-23.2
-17.4
119.64 151.32 151.97 150.70 146.87 146.39 145.92 146.55
76,833 78/337 78,661 78,320 76,760 76,708 76,346 76,293
80/957 82/443 82,902 82,347 80/821 80,701 80,564 80/848
-0.3
-0.5
-0.1
0.4
-0.1
0.3
-0.8
-0.4
-0.7
-2.5
-2.0
-1.9
-0.5
-0.2
-1.1
-1.8
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Composite Indexes
12 leading indicators:3
New index, original trend
New index, reverse trend adjusted . . .
Old index, reverse trend adj. (8101 . . .
820. 5 coincident indicators
825. 5 coincident indicators, deflated .
830. 6 lagging indicators
LEADING INDICATOR
SECTORS
813. Marginal employment adjustments . .
814. Capital investment commitments . . .
815. Inventory investment and purchasing
816. Profitability
817. Sensitive financial flows
B1. Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
• 1 . Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. . . .
2 1 . Average weekly overtime hours,
production workers, manufacturing2
2. Accession rate, manufacturing2
*5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted 4 !
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted 4 ) 2 . . .
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Job Vacancies:
46. Help-wanted advertising
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagriculturalestablishments .
• 4 1 . Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
Comprehensive Unemployment:
•43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 4 ) 2 .
45. Average weekly insured unemployment
rate (inverted 4 ) 2
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(inverted 4 ) 2
Ann. rate, billion
man-hours
Thousands
do
1.9
5.6
5.5
6.6
8.4
8.2
8.7
.do.
2.7
3.5
3.3
4.3
6.0
6.0
6.4
6.8
-0.4
-0.4
-1.0
-1.7
.do .
2.3
2.7
2.7
3.4
4.8
4.7
5.2
5.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.7
-1.4
O.9
1.0
1.0
1.
2.0
2.0
2.2
2.6
-0.2
-0.4
-0.2
-0.8
111.2
109.8
1.0
-2,3
-3.3
-1.0
-3.0
-8.0
Percent .
8.9
LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeksand
over (inverted 4 ) 3
B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Comprehensive Production:
•200. GNP in current dollars
•205. GNP in 1958 dollars
•47. Industrial production
Ann.rate, bit.dol.
do
1967-100
1294.9 1397.4 1416.3 1430.9 1417.1
839.2 821.2 823.1 804.0 780.2
125.6 124.8 125.4 121.3 111.6
109.4
-1.3
-0.4
Comprehensive Income:
•52. Personal income
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., construction .
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
1055.0 1150.5 1168.2 1186.8 1193.4 1193.4 1195.7 1202.4
255.2 255.1
247.6 266.2 271.3 268.8 257.3 255.
0.2
-0.1
0.6
0.0
1.6
-0.9
0.6
-4.3
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
•56. Manufacturing and trade sales
57. Final sales
•54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores, deflated
Bil.dol
Ann.rale, bil.dol.
Mil.dol
do
143.90
1279.6
41/943
33/477
NA
161.09 162.81 158.69
1436.3
46,237 46,819 45,937 46,584
30,954 31,398 30,581 30,829
-2.5
NA
-1.9
-2.6
1.4
0.8
-1.9
0.4
-3.2
-6.2
-3.7
1.6
2.7
1.6
1967=100
Number
117.9 112.4 114.8 105.5 102.5 101.7 103.0
27/443 26,584 26,866 25/321 24,506 24,298 24,815
105.2
1.3
2.1
2.1
-8.1
-5.8
-2.8
-3.2
-4.1
13.3
15.4
-4.5
56.90 -14.7
-2.6
990
-1.1
77.3
10.3
43.4
1.6
27.1
-12.2
-10.7
-9.1
-24.1
-10.9
.13.9
23.5
0.9
-25.4
-17.2
-14.9
-18.9
-1.0
-9.9
-4.2
0.2
-7.6
164.10
1383.2
53/786
31,655
170.44
1407.6
46,530
32,469
167.26
1413.1
45,031
30,466
B3. Fixed Capital Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
•12. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries
8. Construction contracts, total value
•10. Contracts and orders for plant, equipment .
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing .
24. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondefense .
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial buildings
28. New private housing units started, total . . .
•29. New building permits, private housing
NA
44.43
171
13.54
14.16
11.53
47.86
178
14.25
16.40
12.14
42.03
15'
12.95
12.45
10.8
36.19
141
11.39
NA
9.86
37.02
135
11.34
35.49
153
11.44
38.98
189
13.20
do
41.2
184
12.26
10.8,
10.3,
9.9
9.5;
10.50
Mil. sq. feet
floor space . . .
Ann.rate, thous
1967=100
85.73
2/045
157.1
72.9C
77.50
1,20'
78.
57.81
1,001
67.0
46.87
991
60.4
46.5
1,000
61.5
39.69
974
60,8
Bil. d o l . . . .
1967=100 .
Bil.dol....
do
1/33*
90.«
NA
9.8
-11.3
.12.0
NA
-8.9
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries 5 ..
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg. s . . .
6
Bil. dol., EOP . .
do
109.86 129.91 135.70 129.9 120.10 123.25 120.10 118.31
36.66 50.42 50.31 50.42
N,
-2.6
-1.5
NA
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Percent change
Series title
Unit
of
neasure
Average
1973
1974
3dQ
1974
4th Q
1974
1st Q
1975
Feb.
1975
Mar.
1975
Apr.
1975
Feb.
to
Mar.
1975
Mar.
to
Apr.
1975
3dQ
to
4th Q
1974
4th Q
to
1st Q
1975
B. C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S - C o n .
B3. Fixed Capital Investment—Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
• 6 1 . Business expend., new plant and equip
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
99.74 111.92 113.99 116.22 &113.22
134.71 152.68 152.61 158.33 153.21 155.70 150.86
NA
-3.1
2.0
-2.6
61
NA
3.7
-3.2
69
245
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in bus. inventories, all indus.2
• 3 1 . Change, mfg. and trade inven., book value2 . .
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories2
20. Change in mfrs.' inventories of materials,
supplies, book value2
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or l o n g e r 2 ®
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries 2 ®
25. Chg. in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus.2 . . .
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
15. 4
26.9
14.2
47.8
8.7
59.2
17.6
52.9
-19.2
-11.6
-11.6
-23.1
NA
-11.3
NA
9.1
-6.3
-37.0
-64.5
63
55
56
46
32
30
30
26
0
-4
-10
-14
6.4
13.9
17.7
11.2
1.5
2.1
-6.1
NA
-8.2
NA
-6.5
-9.7
78
83
84
75
62
64
58
57
-6
-1
-9
-13
68
2.41
66
64
3.20
33
-1.92
17
-3.28
16
17.
-3.15
22
-1.79
1
-0.52
5
1.36
-31
-5.12
-16
-1.36
224.00 271.84 258.62 271.84 268.94 270.86 268.94
37.95 46.73 43.41 46.73 47.73 47.70 47.73
NA
NA
-0.7
0.1
NA
NA
5.1
7.6
-1.1
2.1
71
65
31
Percent
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
Percent
37
20
26
do
Bil. dol
1.67
-2.63
32
25
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
• 7 1 . Mfg. and trade inventories, book value !
65. Mfrs.'inven. of finished goods, book values . .
Bil. dol., EOP .
do
6 5 . Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
•23. Industrial materials prices®
1967=100
Stock Prices:
•19. Stock prices, 500 common s t o c k s ® .
1941-43=10 . . . .
Profits and Profit Margins:
•16. Corporate profits, after taxes, current dol. . .
18. Corporate profits, after taxes, 19S8 dollars..
22. Ratio, profits to income originating in
corporate business2
15. Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg. 2 . .
•17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars
173.1
219.0
222.4
194.7
181.2
181.1
182.3
186.4
0.7
2.2
-12.5
-6.9
23
107.43
82.84
75.66
69.42
78.81
80.10
83.76
84.72
4.6
1.1
-8.2
13.5
19
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
72.9
50.2
85.0
53.1
94.3
58.2
79.5
46.9
61.8
35.6
-15.7
-19.4
•22.3
•24.1
16
18
Percent
Cents
1967=100
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
11.2
5.0
106.1
114.5
79.0
12.1
5.6
116.1
129.0
81.3
13.5
5.9
118.7
138.6
86.4
11.1
4.9
120.8
125.5
74.0
9.2
NA
115.9
109.1
62.2
116.3
-2.4
-1.0
1.8
-9.5
-14.4
-1.9
NA
-4.1
• 13.1
-15.9
22
15
17
34
35
1967=100
Percent
1967=100
125.9
0.9
129.2
154.1
1.9
153.8
160.8
2.1
160.2
165.6
0.9
166.1
168.3
0.3
168.0
168.4
0.4
168.0
3.0
-1.2
3.7
1.6
-0.6
1.1
55
55
58
131.1
146.5
148.5
153.6
157.6
3.4
2.6
63
Dollars
1967=100
0.879
121.7
0.978
132.5
0.993
134.7
1.023
136.5
1.044
145.1
144.4
147.0
147.3
1.8
0.2
3.0
2.8
2.1
4.8
68
62
1.00
5.25
2.42
5.53
11.01
4.19
5.48
-6.82
4.25
-2.83
85
4.20
6.66
6.36
9.36
11.80
-4.14
2.46
1.70
102
-2.30
3.09
3.42
NA 11.26
4.94
5.28 11.40 •38.97
NA •17.30
0,85
-13.4 -37.2
103
33
112
113
110
113.9
114.3
-2.1
0.4
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities® .
55c. Chg. in whsle. prices, indus. commod., S/A2 .
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods® . . .
168.9
0.1
167.8
169.7
0.1
168.7
0.3
-0.3
-0.1
0.5
0.0
0.5
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
63. Unit labor cost, total private economy
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
•62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
85. Change in money supply ( M l ) 2
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits
at commercial banks (M2) 2
103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at
banks and nonbank institutions (M3) 2
33. Change in mortgage debt2
112. Change in business loans2
•113. Change in consumer installment debt 2
110. Total private borrowing
Ann.rate.percent.
5.98
4.66
do
8.51
6.99
7.66
2.44
do
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
.do.
.do.
6.56
6.89 10.31 10.46 13.98 11.68
8.50
3.80
35.75 34.36 23.10 28.04 30.29 29.04
NA
48.01
21.97
-23.79 •34,55 -25.22 -19.94
15.18
21.00
26.56
8.41 14.05 -3.25 -2.40
NA
20.08
2.84 -5.24
177.64 167.65 164.09 142.09 89.20
3.52
-1.25
9.33
-8.08
Mil. dol
Percent, EOP . . .
191.55 254.43 201.03 298.03 1B5.9B 423.45 343.35
2.27
2.80
2.63
2.80
2.71
2.94
2.94
18.9
-0.23
NA
NA
-48.3
-0.17
-29.5
-0.14
14
39
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 2 ®
Mil. dol.
-1/389 -1,797 -2,982
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds r a t e 2 ®
114. Treasury bill r a t e 2 ® :
116. Corporate bond y i e l d s 2 ®
115. Treasury bond yields2 <&).
117. Municipal bond y i e l d s 2 ® . . . .
Percent...
do .
.do.
.do.
.do.
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures ( i n v e r t e d 4 ) ® . .
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inv. 4 ) 2 *
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
8.74
7.P3
7.89
6.31
5.19
10.51
7.87
9.42
6.98
6.17
12.09
8.28
10.31
7.27
6.72
-959
-60
95
167
133
-72
34
2,023
-899
93
9.29
7.33
9.66
6.97
6.74
6.30
5.87
9.16
6.70
6.65
6.24
5.58
8.84
6.66
6.39
5.54
5.54
9.46
6.77
6.74
5.49
5.69
9.81
7.05
6.95
-0.70
-0.04
0.64
0.11
0.35
-0.05
0.15
0.33
0.28
0.21
-2.80
-0.95
-0.65
-0.30
0.02
-2.99
-1.46
-0.50
-0.27
-0.09
119
114
116
115
117
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Continued
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
Average
1973
Mar.
1975
Mar.
to
Apr.
1975
3d 0
to
4th Q
1974
4th Q
to
1st Q
1975
-0.3
-1.6
NA
-1.3
-0.5
3.0
-0.4
-1.6
-2.02
-1.70
NA
Feb.
1974
3dQ
1974
4th Q
1974
1st Q
1975
Feb.
1975
Mar.
1975
Apr.
1975
B. C Y C L I C A L I N D I C A T O R S - C o n .
B6. Money and Credit—Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt5
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Interest Rates:
109. Average prime rate charged by banks 1 ®
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans 3 ®...
118. Mortgage yields, residential 2 ®
Bil.dol.,EOP .
Bil. dol
144.52
106.08
152.93 153.74 152.93 152.33 152.77 152.33
NA
125.35 129.49 133.40 131.20 130.94 128.84 127.17
8.02
8.30
8.19
10.80
11.28
9.55
11.99
12.40
10.18
11.00
11.64
NA
8.98
9.94
8.84
8.96
119
5/905
2,343
189
5,786
-190
8/166
3,186
207
8,357
-598
8,361
3,144
215
8,959
-158
8,836
3,378
192
8,995
696
8,972
3,369
178
8,277
917
8,789
3,166
172
7,872
4,327
596
112
-257
-1,902
-1,326
,191
353
-1,007
-1,364
-4,809
-2,082
-247
-703
•1,475
•3,874
•4,463
-320
Bil. dol..
Mil. dol.
-5.6
258.5
264.2
74.4
7,085
1,571
1.71
2,954
-8.1
291.1
299.1
78.7
7,753
1,741
1.90
3/457
-1.9
302.8
304.7
78.4
8,052
1,818
2.10
3,716
-23.7
295.6
319.3
84.0
7,990
1,742
1.81
3,490
-54.7
283.8
338.5
84.7
7,780
1,761
1.83
3,499
7,508
1,509
2.15
3,987
8/223
2/349
1.70
2/817
NA
NA
1.72
NA
9.5
55.7
-20.9
-29.3
1958=100 .
1967=100 .
Percent . . .
1967=100 .
149.6
133.1
0.7
134.7
167.0
147.7
1.0
160.1
169.6
149.9
1.0
165.4
174.7
154.2
0.9
171.2
178.0
157.0
0.5
171.2
157.2
0.5
171.3
157.6
0.3
170.4
158.6
0.6
172.1
0.4
-0.2
-0.5
146.6
158.3
160.3
164.0
167.3
167.2
168.8
168.8
1.0
110.1
107.2
107.0
106.4
106.4
106.3
107.0
106.4
0.7
95.73 90.97 90.95
148.8 161.9 163.9
111.8 109.6 109.2
115.2 112.1 112.2
113.7 110.6 110.3
89.80
167.7
108.6
110.8
109.4
88.28
171.6
108.9
110.7
111.7
88.08
87.69
87.59
-0.4
88,716 91,011 91,396 91,785 91,810 91,511 91/829 92/262
84,410 85,936 86,360 85,732 84,146 84,027 83,849 84/086
4,306 5,076 5,036 6,053 7,664 7,484 7/980 8,176
Percent .
.do.
7.93
7.50
-1.03
-0.43
8.69
NA
-0.15
*NA
•0.99
-0.76
NA
1/380
8,716
3,647
176
7,336
557
8,570
NA
NA
8/013
463
-0.8
15.2
2.3
-6.8
-823
-1.7
NA
NA
9.2
440
5.7
7.4
-10.7
0.4
854
1.5
-0.3
-7.3
-8.0
1/073
1,066
1,165
1,992
2,944
4,211
NA
NA
NA
NA
0,097
1,726
NA
NA
1.2
NA
-21.8
-2.4
4.8
7.1
-0.8
-4.2
-13.8
-6.1
-31.0
-4.0
6.0
0.8
-2.6
1.1
1.1
0.3
0.5
0.3
1.0
3.0
2.9
-0.1
3.5
1.9
1.8
-0.4
0.0
0.0
2.3
2.0
-0.6
-0.6
0.0
-0.1
-1.3
2.3
-0.5
-1.2
-0.8
-1.7
2.3
0.3
-0.1
2.1
0.3
-0.2
-6.6
0.5
0.3
-2.5
0.4
-0.7
-20.2
0.0
-1.8
-26.6
D. OTHER K E Y INDICATORS
D 1 . Foreign Trade
600.
502.
506.
508.
612.
Merchandise trade balance2
Mil. dol.
Exports, excluding military aid
.do.
Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor vehicles,
do.
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
1967=100
General imports
Mil. dol. ..
250.
515.
517.
519.
521.
522.
Balance on goods and services2
Bal. on goods, services, and remittances2
Balance on current account2
Balance on curr. acct. and long-term capital2 .
Net liquidity balance2
Official reserve transactions balance2
D2. U.S. Balance of Payments
Mil. dol.
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.
.do.
NA
826
NA
363
NA
-310
NA
•5,866
•7,407 2,690
•4,531 -2,805
0 3 . Federal Government Activities
600.
601.
602.
264.
616.
621.
648.
625.
Federal surplus or deficit, NIA 2
Federal receipts, NIA
Federal expenditures, NIA
National defense purchases
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Department obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products
Military contract awards in U.S
Ann.rate, bil.dol.
do
.do.
.do.
Mil. dol.
D4. Price Movements
211. Fixed wtd. price index, gross priv. product . . .
781. Consumer prices, all items®.
781c. Change in consumer prices, all items, S/A2 . . .
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities®
D5. Wages and Productivity
740. Average hourly earnings, production workers
in private nonfarm economy
741. Real average hourly earnings, production
workers in private nonfarm economy
859. Real spendable avg. weekly earnings,
nonagri. prod, or nonsupv. workers
745. Avg. hourly compensation, private nonfarm ..
746. Real avg. hourly comp., private nonfarm
770. Output per man-hour, total private economy .
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm ..
.do.
1967 dol.
1967=100
do
do
do
.
.
.
.
.
D6. Civilian Labor Force and Major
Components
841. Total civilian labor force
842. Total civilian employment
843. Number of persons unemployed (inverted)4 ..
Thousands
do .
do.
E. A N A L Y T I C A L MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2 . . . Percent...
Ratio
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
do.
manufacturers' durable goods industries
853. Ratio, prod., bus. equip, to consumer goods .. 1967=100 .
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
Ratio
personal income
860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to
do .
persons unemployed
Percent . . .
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing2 ®
83.0
1.46
79.0
1.51
79.4
1.49
75.7
1.60
68.3
1.68
1.66
1.69
NA
1.8
NA
-3.7
7.4
-7.4
5.0
2.87
93.2
3.31
100.8
3.42
101.0
3.42
103.2
3.47
100.5
3.44
100.4
3.48
99.2
NA
96.9
1.2
-1.2
NA
-2.3
0.0
2.2
1.5
-2.6
0.082
0.079
0.066
0.086
0.075
30.3
-12.8
0.844
5.8
0.634
6.2
0.666
6.2
0.429
6.0
0.277
6.1
0.282
0.261
0.259
-7.4
-0.8
-35.6
-0.2
-35.4
0.1
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated b y ® , which appear to contain no seasonal movement. 'Series included in the 1966 N8ER "short list" of indicators. NA • not available, a = anticipated.
EOP - end of period. S/A=seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). For complete series titles (including composition of composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" in the back of BCD.
1
For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual figures are
those published by the source agencies; otherwise, they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series) are averages of the data as shown in part II.
*Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
For the latest month, new indexes are based on 11 components, old index on 9.
*mverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
8
Chart Ai ! GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
210. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
205. GNP in 19M dollars, a (am. rate, nil. dol.)
210. Implicit price deflator, 0 (index: 1958-100)
215. Per capita GNP in current dollars, 0 (am. rate, thus. dol.
217. Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars, Q
(am. rate, thous. dol.)
i95 3 54
55
56
57
5?
59
e'".
7.1
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
BCD
MAY 1975
9
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A2
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
220. National iacone, current dollars, Q (aim. rate, bil. dol.)
224. Disposable personal
curreat dollars, 1
(am. rate, Ml. dol.)
225. Disposable personal
dollars, Q (am. rate, Ml. iol.)
226. Per capita disposable personal income, corrart dollars, Q
(am. rate,tons,dol.)
2.5-
Par capita disposable personal income,
1858 dollars, Q (am. rate, thoas. dol.)
2.0-
1.51953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
10
MAY 1975
BCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AN«
Chart A3 J PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
(May; (Feb.)
?
T
232. Darable goods, total, current dollars, 0
233. Diraklt goods, total excluding automobiles,
carrent dollars, I
234. Automobiles, current dollars,
236. NHriurafile goods, total, current dollars, 0
237. Services, total, current dollars, Q
953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
ItCII
MAY 1975
11
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A4
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
brass private nowesiic mwsmitM
241. Honresidential fixed investment, total, Q
242. Honresidential structures, (1
243. Producers'durable equipment, Q
244. Residential structures, Q
245. Change in business inventories, Q
-20
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
J
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
12
MAY 1975
BCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A5
FOREIGN TRADE
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
A m i rate, billion dollars (current)
"HI
250. Net exports of goods and services, 8
+15+10+5-1
0-b-IG-
t.!)C •
160-
±
140-4
252. Exports of goods and services, 8
253. teports of goods art services, Q
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
ItCII
MAY 1975
13
Section A
Chart A6
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
(iuip
.Apr.,
.;.!ivi(t
PI
Vov...
(Nov.)
'"
GovermMnt pvctasts if goods wi jmriccs—
2C0-1
2CO-;
leo-i
266. State awl local govenunarts, Q
80-j
J ?nJ
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
6C
61
62
G3
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
14
MAY 1975
KCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A7
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
Annual rate, billion doll« (orrent)
360320280 240 -
,
200-
270. Final sates, durable goods, I T
160-
120-
80-
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods,
520 T
48044040(1360 320-
274. Final sales, nondurable goods, fl
263-
160-j
;
120-'
+20-
275. Change in twsisess mventories, noeihiratile goods,
+15+10+ 5-
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
63
62
63
64
65
66
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
MAY 1975
BCII
15
Section A
Chart A8
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
Annual rate, billion dollars (carreirt)
280. Compensation of employees, Q
282. Proprietors'income, Q
284. Rental income of persons, Q
288. Corporate profits and inventory valuation a t o s t r a a r t a . . .
195?.
M
55
5b
5?
58
59
60
61
f>>
Si
i-,
fcS
W,
67
IB
69
70
71
12
/?,
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.
16
MAY 1975
n%A9
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND \ F
Chart A 9 ! S A V I N G
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
296. Capital coemption allowances, 6
298. Government surplus or deficit,
953
34
55
5G
57
5S
59
60
6.\
K
53
54
66
66
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
MAY 1975
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ItCII
17
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A10
REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
T
273. Fiaal sates, 195LitotaJl
217. Fixed inwsliHM,
1958 dollars, a
248. Fated investment, residential itrwftres, 1958 dollars, Q
/
231. Personl COBBBJHH expeniitves,
total, 19511
•iOO-
90-j
80~"
2B3. Fedaral Eovenwat wrdases oi goods
and services, 1958 dollars, 1
of pods aid services, 1958 dollarej
25-j
151953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69,70, and 72.
18
MAY 1975
BCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AM:
Chart A l l ! SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Gross National Product Shares
expenditures as percent of GNP, Q
262A. Federal Government purchases
of goods art services as percent
of GNP, Q ^
241A. Fixed investment, nonresidentia),
"as^ereert of GUP, Q
2B6A. State art local government
purchases of goods aid services
244A. Fixed investment, residential structures as percent of GNP, Q
24SA. Change in business inventories as percent of GNP, Q
2S0A. Net exports of goods and servicesas percent of GNP, Q
National Income Shares
Percent
280A. Compensation of employees as percent of national income, B
282A. Proprietors' income as
percent of national income, 0
284A. Rental income of persons as percent of national income, 0
286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation
adjustment as percent of national income, 0
288A. Net interest as percent of national income, Q
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
MAY 1975
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCII
19
Section
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart Bl
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
[ Marginal Employment Adjustments
42-i
* 1 . Averagg workweek, prnbction worker
41403938->
21. Average weekly overtime hours, production
workers, manufacturing (hours)
3-
2. Accession rate, maoufacturing (per 100 employees)
4-
* 5 . Average weekly initial claims, State
3. layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees-inverted scale)
23-
4-J
X953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
20
MAY 1975
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart Bl
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1967=100)
Si
40. Mai-hours in mnagricultural establishments (am. rate, bit. man-hem)
•41. Employees on nonagriculUiral payrolls (millions)
42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural
activities (millions)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 75.
MAY 1975
BCII
21
Section B
,
.
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart Bl ! EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(j-j'y't CApi.)
I-
I
Pi
(May)(Ob.
!'
i
(Nov.) (NOT
P
T
Comprehensive Unemployment
rate, total (potent—inverted sole)
45. Average weekly insured unen^iloyraeirt rate (percent-inverted scale)
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(percent—inverted scale)
Lagging Indicators
Long-Duration Unemployment
•44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed IS weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
22
MAY 1975
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B2
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
Comprehensive Productioi
* 2 N . BMP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, Ml. dol
6HP iB 1958 dollars, Q
rats, toil, dol.)
801953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
1975
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e. Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
MAY 1975
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ItCII
23
Section B
f
^
'
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
[ Chart B2 j PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nav.) (Nov.)
P
T
(July)
P
200
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
180 H
A.
160H0 -
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales (Ml. dol.
59. Sales of retail stores, 1967 dollars (oil, dol.)
1953 54
55
56
t:7
hS
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
„
70
71
72
73
74 1975
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e.. Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
24
MAY 1975
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
130-
Formation of Business Enterprises
120-
*11 fet business formation (index: 183=1110)
110100-
13. New business incorporations (thousands)
605040-
New Investment Commitments
*6. Mew orders, durable goods industries (Ml. dot.)
30-
y^r^
8. Construction contracts, total value (index: 1967=
HCD moving avg.-5-term) 1
Cantracts and orders, plant and equipment (bil. ttal.)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.
MAY 1975
BCII
25
Section B
CYCLSCAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
11. New c#ital wropriatwis, Mrtctarisg, fl ( W . « . ) '
24. MMrixftnrs' m inters, capital goods industries,
(bil. (W.)
9. CMBtmtat notracts, cswnettial and itdtstrial
(nil. sq. 8. offloorana; KC1 awiag
a . few private tasiig nits started, Mai (an. rait
K B mviit aw .—4-teni)
*29. few taiWiig pmils, private boasiDg
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
!
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 77 and 78.
26
MAY 1975
BCD
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
(Aug )
P
T
P
(Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
(Jj'y) (Apr)
P
T
(Nov.)
T
160 140-
7V
X a
36. totfactarers1 unfilled orders, teraile goods iitdastrits (bil.
120100-
80605040-
30-
Bxtttf of capital appropriations, mawfactwin?, 8 (Mi. « ) '
20-
ro-
Lagging Indicators
*61. BKHWSS experiitvK, M N plait art
69. iartiiiffi art eqttipMBl sales art tasraess
e«p«8ditures (m. n i l , Wl. M.)
:*53 54
55
56
57
58
59
50
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
71
72
73
74 1975
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission: it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
MAY 1975
ItCH
27
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B4
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
T
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
26. Change in business M a r i e s , Q
(an. rate, Ml. M.)
+60-
1/h
*31.
am*
knt
+50+40'
fi
hook value, maoufactving and trade inventories
bil. dol.; MCD mming avg.-6-term)
+30'
+20i
f\ A , it\
I
+10-
1
0-101
i
-2075-
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories
50-
25-
20. Chanp in book value, manufacturers' inventories of materials and
(am. rale, hit. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
1
i •
-5J
100n
26. Buying policy, production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 nays or logger
75-
50-1
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data lor these series are shown on pages 78 and 79.
28
MAY 1975
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B4
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P
(July) (Apr)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
n.ventory Investment and Purchasing - Con
100-
32. tariff pensnwee, percent i f cwpaoies reporting stouter deliveries
75-
50-
25-
25. Change In unfilled orders, durable goods imlustries
(bit. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
y/* yyvv
Lagging Indicators
•71. Bank value, manufacturing and trade inventories (bit. dol.)
Book value of manufacturers' inventories, ffini
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
NOTE: For this economic process <i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.
MAY 1975
itcn
29
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B5 j PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Leading Indicators
(July)
(Aug.)
p
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.!
(J'jl>>.;pO
r
P
T
•21 Mistrial natefiats priess (iriei: 1967=101)
ta-penrte prams abr tans, 9 (at, rate, ML M.)
*W. Cvrnt
tafo, profits (afar teas) to iicww
15. Profits (afUf tans) ptr dollar of sales, • w f x t v i q , 1 (cuts)
*17. Ratw, pri«tomttt labor cast, wwfactifiu (wtei: 1987=100)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
SO
Si
62
63
54
65
56
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 79 and 80.
30
MAY 1975
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B5
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
160 140120-
M. lit cist fkm, cwporite, a rrsflt tffans.
• (an. rate, kil. tt.)
S
B
100-
80-
6C-"
30-
Roughly Coincident Indicators
9 . Wholesale prices, indastrial a w t f f e s (infer 1967=108)
» . Wholesale prices, mmfactved goods (Mn.- 1967=1118)
i&3
54
55
65
(4
66
t.
6c
197E
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
IM.JP MAY 1975
31
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B5
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
Unit later cost, Wai private economy
63. Index, Q (1967 100)
63c. Change over 1-qnarter spans, B (am. rate, percert)
68. Labor cost (CUT. dol.) per unit ef real corporate product, a dollars)
•62. Labor cost per unit of output, raanufactHring
index: 1967=100)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
32
MAY 1975
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Flows of Money and Credit;
+20-
85. Chaw in money amah (HI) (am. rate, percent: MCD waving avg.-6-term)
.i Ik.
+15+10-
JMiikJ*
+50-5-
112. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks (H2)
(aw. rate. Bercent: nioviBt avg.—B-terai)
+15-1
+10+50-
"5
Omgi in money apply plus tine deposits at banks and
; institutions (IB) (an. rate, percent; moving avf.—6-term)
+20+15+10+5-
33. Change in mortgage debt (am. rate, kil. dol.
j!—4-4—
ill!
112. Change in business loans (ann. rate, bil. sol.;
MCD moving avg.—6-term)
»• 11-
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
MAY 1975
ItCII
33
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
iKtaltaent detrt ( » . rate, Ml. fcl.)
29 ~:
50-1
400 450 500 J
3S. MtapcKy rate, 9 fays wA wv, Mil
tetaHmtf loas ^ T C H M I W M stale)
1.6 t
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 8 1 .
34
MAY 1975
ItCII
Section B
r~
| Chart B6
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
•Jtliyl
(Atig.?
(July)
(Apr.)
P
T
(No*.
93. Free reserves (nl. tet.—imrerted scale)
119. Federal funds rate (perceflt)
114. Treasure Mil rate (percent)
116. Corporate bond yields (percent)
115. Treasury bead fields (percent)
117. Municipal BOM yields (percent)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
MAY 1975
BCII
35
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
66. Consumer installment debt (bil. dot
•72. Canmercial and industrial loans outstanding
weekly reporting large commercial banks
(bil. Art.)
109. Average prime rate charged Dy names (percent}
*B7. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 0 (percent)
, residential (percent)
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
36
MAY 1975
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B7
COMPOSITE INDEXES
Coincident and Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P T
1948 49
50
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
51 52
53
54 55
56
57
58 59
(May) (Feb.)
P T
60
61 62
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
63 64
65
66 67
68
69
70
71
72 73 74 1975
Current data lor these series are shown on page 83. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length ol leads (-> and lags (+) in months Irom reference turning dates.
MAY 1975
ItCII
37
Section B
CYCIJC/L. i i>! « OHS Selected Indicators by Timing
[ Chart B7 j COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.
Leading Indicator Subgroups
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
t*gs,l 4 i
1948 49
(July) (Apr.;
P T
*' =•? it \"-
50
51
52
53 54
mW« .
55
56
57
58 59
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(No*.) (Nov.)
P
T
"- £. ,V
60 61 62
' «v 3>" JIT £
63 64
65 66 67
68
69
70
71
72
73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 83.
38
MAY 1975
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST
Leading Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
1948 49
50
51 52
53 54
55
56
57
58 59
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
60 61 62
63 64
65 66 67
68 69
70
71
72
73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 77.
I MAY 1975
39
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
-Ill
, , , ,,
if
; ;
H i . Hew kiMl »rwits, private te«si« aaits (iatex: 1367=100)
.Ml
*A
Am
llj^i
HI ^
1
™jj'
•
V
%
•
200180-
^AO
• / X
1i
1
160-
\\D
VI
140120100-
80-
60-
40-
*19. Stack prices, 510 comma state
(index: 1341-43=10)
* 3 1 . Change to tank value, iHaHtacturtng and trade inventories
(an. rate, Ml. dol.; MCD moving avg.~6 ton)
"23. IndBstrial materials prices (index: 1967=100)
194S 49
50
5!
5"
• '
-'
C
5
56
C~
5J"
-?
6"
63 64
65
66 67
68
69
70
"1
7?
73 74 197S
Current data lor these series are shown on pages 78 and 79.
40
MAY 1975
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Selected Indicators by Timing
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P 1
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
instalment debt (am. rate JuLJoL]
Roughly Coincident Indicators
*41. Employs n mmagrictilttiral payrolls (millions)
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 79, 80, and 81.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/MAY 1975
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ItCII
41
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
; Chart B8
i
:
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Non.) (Nov.)
P
T
1600-.
150014001300120011001000900-
snn~
1948 49
50
51
52
53 54 55
56 57
58 59
60
61 62
63 64
65 66 67 68 69
70
71
72
73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
42
MAY 1975
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(NoO(Oct)
P I
(Julyl (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (No<)
P
T
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 78, 79, 80, and 82.
I M J I MAY 1975
43
Section
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
[~Chart ci~] AGGREGATE SERIES
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
T
150-i
140-j
'"1
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, alt industries, 0
120 -i
s_
11C
100-j
so
(a) Actual expenditures (am. rate, bil. dol.)
so
70- ;
50
40-
30
(b) Secoml igticipatioas as mreent 8f acteaHwrtait)
106-j
ZM.
\ lilil
rt
104 102100-
9B96-
First anticinations as nereert of actual (aerceat)
f
1
rl
IT
TTT
'
106
f
IT
.. " L"1! U
111
t T»t?
11TI I T .
'
IT T
T'ITI •TI i
i
.
m
104'
102
100
*
98'
96
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
1976
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
44
MAY 1975
ItCII
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart Cl
AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
412. Manufacturers' inventories,
6040 •
414. CMdition oi mairafacturefs'inventories:^
percent considered Mgn less percent /
low, a (yereenl)
..j.
/
\
...^"^-."yy
y*
\_
/
,.»••»••*••»••,•••*
416. Adequacyof manufacturers' capacity.- perent
consiDereB inaoei)aate less percent C M S H M M
JK, 0 (ueiceut—mKiteil sule)
\
\
\
435. Index of consumer sentiment, Q (1st. 0 1966=190)
.....
VV
z: x^
•"*vv. •••••
A,
\
...«••<
' ^
w
V\
li
%?
58
£9 60 ol »->
63
"3
74 :?5
1976
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
KCII
MAY 1975
45
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
MftefN Mtns: p e n t rising
(plotted it teniita) prter)
(Nov.)
T
061. Bisiiwss Hftriihro fir MW plait awl eqaipaent, a Untriss {1-8 spa)
fctoul
1007550- •
25-
100 T
50-
9440. Hew orders, waartactiriag (4-B span)'
30307060•• 5 G -
D442. fet profik, wa«fattoriig a d trade ( 4 4 spa)'
90-i
8070605C>
D444. Iht sales, saiBiittBriiig and trait (4-B spu) 1
9080706050-
masirtactiriis aai tra* (4-Q soan)
70605040-
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
1976
Current data tor these series are shown on pages 84 and 85.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
46
MAY 1975
BCII
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND IM
j Chart C2 j DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
()il») (Apr.)
P
7
(May) (Feb.;
P
T
Kffisiw indexes: pertnt risiij
(plotted at teraiBJl parter)
Actul •
Anticipated •
M M . Level of inventories, maMftttiring art trade (4-8 spas)'
M M . Selling prices, manofactiriij and trade (4-fl sp«)
D462. Selling prices, m u dehriiii(4-«swi)'
g f; -
|;
SO-
Ut-i
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-1 spa)
1
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (4-« spa) 1
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
1976
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun S Bradstreet. Inc.
MAY 1975
BCII
47
Chart Dl
(July)
P
FOREIGN TRADE
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
+1.6 T
500. Merchandise trade balance
dol- MCD moving ave.-6-lerm)
502. Exports, except military aid (bil. del.; MCD moving ave.--6-ten»)
506. Export orders, durables except motor vehicles
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.--6-term)
''
Export orders, mwelectrica) machinery
(Index: 1967-100; MCI saving avg.--4-tert)
512. General imports (Ml. del.; MCD moving avg.--4-tanD
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
48
MAY 1975
IICII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
250. Balance m pods art services
5. Balance on goeds, services anil reinitiates
517. Balance n current ace
518. Balance oi current accent
and toif-terra capital
522. Official reserve transactions balance
521. Net liquidity balance
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 87.
MAY 1975
RCII
49
Section D
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
(Nov.! (Nov)
dollars
530. Liquii Utilities te all foreigners, eatstanding at end of perfid
532. Liquid and ceftalB KMliqiHl liabilities tD
foreign official agencies, mrt&taMltg at
25-
534. U.S. offieial reserve assets-reserve DBsitioq at esd «f DirW
20-
a™
15-
10-
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 87. End-of-year figures are used prior to 1960.
50
MAY 1975
ItCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATOR
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.!
(July) (Apr.)
T
P
P
T
I
NnHnH •flIC| UtffflM
] Excess of rittiirts
lEicess of pyieats
Coeds a t senins-
258. IIIMCC • pnls x& unices
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 87. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
MAY 1975
BCII
51
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Investment Income. Military Sales
T
Annual rate, billion dollars
and Expenditures and Other Services
^Excess of receipts (inflow)
1 Excess of fajfuarts (outflow)
32 -i
28-
24
20-
is-»«
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad
foreign
i
hi the U.S.
Travel—
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.
Military sales ami expenditures—
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad
546. Military sales to foreigners
Transportation and other services—
549. Payments
Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
52
MAY 1975
ItCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
T
+12-
Capital Movements Plus Government
Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
+8-
•
Excess of payments (outflow)
+4-J
C
0-
5EB. Foreign investments in the U.S.
-4+8-
_
+4-
0-
564. Foreign iwrchases of U.S. securities
-4-
570. Government grants awl capital transactions, net
0-
-4-
J
-8+4-
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net
0-
-12-16-*
-20 -24-28-32 J
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
51
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
MAY 1975
ItCII
53
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
I Chart D3J FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
T
P
P
T
T
Receipts and Expenditures
ML F e ^ l a ^ w deficit, latiowl iBCflw a^ ^ T 8 ^ acEtwts, 8 ( » . Rrt», W. M )
•10-
-.
0 1 . Federalreceipts,tatioul
HKHK
aid induct
art predKt accmnts, 0 (an. rats, bil. M.)
IS&3
54
!:&
5fc
""
=;3
5-
ti
62
£2
64
65
66
67
68
C9
70
71
72
Current data for these series are shown on page 89.
54
MAY 1975
4 0 " ->
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATOR
J Chart D3 | FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
\
(MayJ-fet- .
P
P
1
)
T
100
90
80
2M. Rational t o r n pwchsK, I (aw. rate, ML M.)
7060-
50 J
lO-i
98-
616. Befeist kparimrt iMfHtaR, total
76r.
3
1
2-
H7. few «*rs, fcinsc protects mAistries
(Ml. « . ; K B moviflg
648.
N W Mitrs, M R S C
prfldttls (6)1. del.; MCI
•HIM
6». Military costract awvds m U.S.
MCI
553
54
55
56
hi
5S
•;:
63
?4 I975
Current data for these series are shown on page 89.
icn
MAY 1975
55
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
211. Fixed wtigbted price iadex, gross (Rivate prMdict
(variable weights prior to 1965), Q (ini^ex: 1958=100)
783. Commodities less foods
x
211c. Change in fixe* weighted price index, grass private predict,
over l-quarter spans, a (m. rate)
o k . Change in cnsuner price index, all items (seasonally adj.)—
! Six-month spas (am. rate)
?!
/
It
^One-month spans
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
'One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
56
MAY 1975
BCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.
(July)
P
(July) (Apt.)
P
T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Wholesale prices
751. Processed foods » d feeds
55c. Change in wholesale price index, industrial commodities (seasonally adj.)—
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
1
One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annuitized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table tor actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 91.
IICII
MAY 1975
57
Section D
Chart D5
j'j;.-:
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
(July) (Apt.)
(Aug.)
P
(May) (Feb.>
T
P
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
T
fesnfi burly tantats if pratactiit trains,
iriwte m f n corny (ma\ fata prior to 19S4)
741. Cvrtti (Wlar earnings (imfex: 1367=100)
741. I n l tanhgs (index:
Real spnbfth m- w * » e n h p , »iagri.
m NNfsVBtn rnvtars (1967 Mbrs)
mtoM
pflVslv mMHtYlv mvlPIIUHIV
771. k b i t per aa-taw, Wai private
...
19-3
*,a
55
56
57
58
59
SO
61
62
63
64
S5
66
67
68
SS
70
71
72
73
?J
jj
-
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.
58
MAY 1975
\\i\\
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D5
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con.
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
(Not.) (No».)
(May) (Feb.)
(luly) (Apr.)
T
P
P
T
T
Chap a avg. kM% lantafs «f pnMJM werters,
prinftB Nifjfl M H M J
pinttmbn
745c tamt dollar cwpumttii
Negotiated wa|e m l ftntfit decisiws, afl iadutries—
748. First year a»g. cbasges, 0 ( m rate)
749. Average chaiges wtr life sf
fl (am. rate)
\77Qc. CtaBge is M^rt per na-teiT, Wai pri»ate
,/?53 54
55
56
57
58
S9
6C
61
62
63
64
65
6C
6?
68
69
7'-
71
72
73
74 1975
'Adjusted tor overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.'One-month percent changes have oeen multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against
the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans. See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.
MAY 1975
BCD
59
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D6
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
P
(Now.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
T
P
T
Civilian Labor Fo
845. Females 20 years and over
846. Both sexes, 16-13 wars of m
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 94.
60
MAY 1975
IICII
Chart E l l ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
;9b3
54
55
56
V-?
5> l
55
SO
v-I
iv
\^
64
»k'
?>:* 6 7
SB
69
*-0
7
I
7i
7
~:
7 4 ?9'?:
Current data for these series are shown on page 95.
'Trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 1st quarter 1975. See special note on page 95.
MAY 1975
61
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Section E
f Chart E2 ] ANALYTICAL RATIOS
L.
__
(July*
P
i
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
r
P
T
P
T
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
95
90
85-
eo-
^
757065B-!
851. fcrthi. iavemoriestosalts, •awfacteiw: art trade (ratio)
852. Ratia, unfilled enters to shipaeats
facturers' im!b\t pods imhstrits (ratio)
853. Ratio nrafelimi at business anipmuttomsms
(inw= 1967=100)
foods
854. RatiB, personal saving to disposable personal incoae, (1 (ratio)
860. Ratio, telp-waited advertisiig to
of KTSJBS ompknetf (ratio)
1953
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 96.
62
MAY 1975
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart"E3~l
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
Parent risitf
D1. Average workweek, production workers, maHfactiriig-21 industries (9-ma. s i n — , 1-m. span—)
BS. New enters, Amble goods industries-35 industries (9-no. span—, 1-mo.
D11. Newly approved capital appropriatiofls-17 industries (3-0 span—, 1-Q span—) 1
D34. Profits, FHCB i f NY, percent reporting higher punts—about 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-Q span)
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks-65-82 industries (9-mo. s p a n — , 1-m. span-—)
D23. Industrial materials prices-13 industrial materials (9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span-—)
M
05. Initial claims, State unemployment insurance—47 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span-
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 97 and 98.
MAY 1975
63
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
r C h a r T l i ~ | DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
P
T
(Nov.)
(Nov.)
P
T
T
rising
M l . Employees n nonagricultural nayrulls-30 indnstries (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo.
100-1
D47. Industrial production-24 industries (6-rao. s p a n — , 1-mo. span--)
058. Wholesale p r i m , manufactgred geads-22 industries (6-mo. s p a a — , 1-BO
100 -i
500J
DM. Sales of retail stores-23 types of stores (9-mo. s p a — , 1-mo. span--)
100 ->
Mm^WWW™
50-
0J
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 98.
64
MAY 1975
BCII
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart E5
RATES OF CHANGE
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
T
Ptrcul change, awnl rate
205. (c) GNP in constant dollars (1-8 span)
+10+5-.
-10-
1-no. span
3-rno. span •
820. Composite Into of 5 coincident indicators (series 41,43,47,52, 8 )
48. Han-hours i i nonagricnltural establishments
.32
s
1957
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
1976
To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide," pp. 106-109.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
MAY 1975
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
ItCIt
65
DM
Section
*
Lit.
Chart Fi
F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
CONSUMER PRICES
Consumer pricss
Current data for these series are shown on page 103.
66
MAY 1975
ItCII
Section F
INTERNATIONAL COMPAR1SO!
Chart F2
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(July*
P
(July) (Api.)
P T
(Aug.)
1
(May)(Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov 1
P
T
• K S U H I pTOPCuOn--
1953 54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 103 and 104.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
MAY 1975
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
BCD
67
Section F
Chart F3
STOCK PRICES
Stock trices--
1953
54
55
5S
a?
5£
53
SO
68
69
70
71
72
73
74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 104.
68
MAY 1975
ItCIt
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
O f GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
a. Total
b. Difference
210. Implicit price deflator
205. Constant (1958) dollars
200. Current dollars
a. Total
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
a. Total
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
b. Difference
(Index:
1958=100)
(Index:
1958=100)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1,115.0
1,143.0
1,169.3
1,204.7
+31.8
+28.0
+26.3
+35.4
+12.2
+10.5
+9.5
+12.7
770.9
786.6
798.1
814.2
+11.8
+15.7
+11.5
+16.1
+6.4
+8.4
+6.0
+8.3
144.6
145.3
146.5
148.0
+1.9
+0.7
+1.2
+1.5
+5.5
+1.9
+3.3
+4.1
1,248.9
1,277.9
1,308.9
1,344.0
+44.2
+29.0
+31.0
+35.1
+15.5
+9.6
+10.1
+11.2
832.8
837.4
840.8
845.7
+18.6
+4.6
+3.4
+4.9
+9.5
+2.2
+1.6
+2.3
150.0
152.6
155.7
158.9
+2.0
+2.6
+3.1
+3.2
+5.5
+7.3
+8.3
+8.6
1,358.8
1,383.8
1,416.3
1,430.9
+14.8
+25.0
+32.5
+14.6
+4.5
+7.6
+9.7
+4.2
830.5
827.1
823.1
804.0
-15.2
-3.4
-4.0
-19.1
-7.0
-1.6
-1.9
-9.0
163.6
167.3
172.1
178.0
+4.7
+3.7
+4.8
+5.9
+12.3
+9.4
+11.9
+14.4
rl,417.1
r-13.8
r-3.8
r780.2
r-23.8
r-11.3
rl81.6
r+3.6
r+8.5
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
••GROSS NATIONAL
• • • PRODUCT-Con.
Year
and
quarter
215. Per capita
GNP, current
dollars
217. Per capita
GNP, constant
(1958) dollars
H Q NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
220. National
income in current dollars
222. Personal
income in current dollars
Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
225. Constant
(1958) dollars
226. Per capita,
current dollars
227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
5,354
5,478
5,593
5,750
3,702
3,770
3,818
3,886
912.3
932.5
954.3
987.0
913.3
930.9
950.3
985.0
774.7
790.0
807.2
838.1
566.2
573.6
581.9
600.1
3,720
3,787
3,861
4,000
2,719
2,749
2,784
2,864
5,951
6,079
6,215
6,369
3,969
3,984
3,992
4,007
1,027.6
1,051.2
1,077.3
1,106.3
1,013.6
1,039.2
1,068.0
1,099.3
869.5
892.1
913.9
939.4
615.1
618.2
621.8
622.9
4,143
4,244
4,339
4,452
2,931
2,941
2,952
2,952
6,428
6,536
6,676
6,730
3,929
3,907
3,880
r3,782
1,118.8
1,130.2
1,155.5
1,165.4
1,112.5
1,134.6
1,168.2
1,186.9
950.6
966.5
993.1
1,008.8
610.3
603.5
602.9
594.8
4,497
4,565
4,681
4,745
2,887
2,850
2,842
2,798
r6,654
r3,664
pl,149.8
rl,193.4
rl,O15.5
591.0
r4,768
2,775
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate, dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9,10, and 65.
ItCII MAY 1975
69
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
( H P E R S O N A L CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Year
and
quarter
230. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars
232. Durable
goods, total, in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
233. Durable
goods, total except
autos, in current
dollars
234. Automo }iles
in current dol ars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rat
bil. dol.
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
237. Services in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
701.5
720.6
736.8
757.2
512.8
523.2
531.2
542.2
112.1
116.2
121.2
124.3
75.5
77.9
79.4
82.4
36.6
38.3
41.8
41.9
288.4
297.4
302.0
310.9
301.0
307.0
313.6
322.0
781.7
799.0
816.3
823.9
552.9
553.7
555.4
546.3
132.4
132.1
132.4
124.3
87.0
87.3
87.0
86.3
45.4
44.8
45.4
38.0
323.3
332.7
343.8
352.1
325.9
334.2
340.1
347.4
840.6
869.1
901.3
895.8
539.7
542.7
547.2
528.2
123.9
129.5
136.1
120.7
88.1
91.5
92.5
88.1
35.8
38.0
43.6
32.6
364.4
375.8
389.0
391.7
352.4
363.8
376.2
383.5
r913.2
r531.5
rl24.9
r89.6
r35.3
r398.8
r389.5
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
0 | G R O S S PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
240. Total
241. Nonresidential
fixed investment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
242. Nonresidential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
243. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
244. Residential
structures
245. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
169.4
175.5
182.1
190.2
112.7
114.7
117.5
122.5
40.7
41.0
40.6
42.2
72.0
73.7
76.8
80.3
51.8
52.9
54-5
56.7
+5.0
+8.0
+10.2
+11.0
199.0
205.1
209.0
224.5
130.5
135.6
139.0
141.9
44.6
46.2
47.9
49.3
85.9
89.4
91.1
92.6
58.5
58.7
58.1
53.6
+10.0
+10.7
+11.8
+28.9
210.5
211.8
205.8
209.4
145.2
149.4
150.9
151.2
51.3
52.2
51.0
53.7
93.9
97.2
99.9
97.5
48.4
48.8
46.2
40.4
+16.9
+13.5
+8.7
+17.8
rl63.1
rl46.9
52.8
r94-2
r35.3
r-19.2
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12.
70
MAY 1975
Kill
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
• M GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
•Hi
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
^ • F O R E I G N TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
252. Exports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
253. Imports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
260. Total
262. Federal
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
264. National
defense
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
-7.1
-6.9
-4.8
-5.3
69.1
68.8
73.3
78.5
76.1
75.7
78.1
83.8
251.1
253.8
255.1
262.6
105.6
105.9
102.7
105.2
75.9
75.9
72.6
74.7
145.5
147.9
152.4
157.4
-0.8
+0.5
+6.7
+9.3
88.8
95.4
103.7
113.6
89.5
94.9
96.9
104.3
269.0
273.3
276.9
286.4
106.4
106.2
105.3
108.4
75.0
74.0
73.3
75.3
162.6
167.1
171.6
177.9
+11.3
-1.5
-3.1
+1.9
131.2
138.5
143.6
147.5
119.9
140.0
146.7
145.7
296.3
304.4
312.3
323.8
111.5
114.3
117.2
124.5
75.8
76.6
78.4
84.0
184.8
190.1
195.1
199.3
r+9.3
rl43.4
rl34.1
r331.6
rl26.5
r84.7
205.1
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
• R | NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
• H
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
H S F I N A L SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
280. Compensation
of employees
Nondurable goods
Durable goods
271. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
274. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
282. Proprietors'
income
284. Rental income .
of persons
275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
204.6
210.6
218.3
223.6
+2.7
+5.8
+6.8
+13.2
309.7
318.9
322.7
332.6
+2.2
+2.2
+3.4
-2.2
683.8
699.0
712.6
732.9
72.9
74.6
75.8
80.1
25.5
24.4
26.8
26.7
237.8
241.2
243.9
240.6
+6.1
+7.7
+9.0
+14.8
347.9
359.7
374.2
384.1
+3.9
+3.0
+2.9
+14.1
759.1
776.7
793.3
814.8
89.1
92.8
99.3
103.2
26.3
25.7
26.2
26.4
242.3
248.5
259.8
246.2
+8.7
-1.8
+5.7
+18.3
392.8
402.9
413.2
418.6
+8.2
+15.4
+3.0
-0.5
828.8
848.3
868.2
877.7
98.4
89.9
92.1
91.6
26.4
26.3
26.6
26.8
r252.9
r-13.4
r433.2
r-5.7
r875.6
r84.9
27.0
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13,14,15, and 16.
MAY 1975
71
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
•(•NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
• N i l IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
288. Net interest
(Ann. raid,
bil.dol.)
^MSAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
290. Gross saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
292. Personal
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
294. Undistributed
corporate profits
plus inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption
allowances
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
298. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
86.5
89.5
92.9
99.8
43.6
44.9
46.2
47.5
164.4
169.4
175.0
184.6
53.3
49.0
49.3
58.9
21.3
22.1
23.3
26.5
98.9
103.7
103.3
105.8
-8.2
-5.2
-0.6
-6.5
103.9
105.0
105.2
106.4
49.2
51.1
53.2
55.5
201.1
207.9
217.0
231.7
65.3
69.6
73.2
89.3
26.3
24.9
25.6
26.2
107.4
110.5
111.5
113.9
+2.1
+3.0
+6.7
+2.3
107.7
105.6
105.8
103.4
57.5
60.1
62.8
65.9
224.5
206.3
196.4
202.9
84.4
71.5
65.5
86.5
23.9
17.1
9.9
18.1
115.8
118.6
120.7
122.9
+0.4
-1.0
+0.2
-24.6
P93.4
r68.9
pl65.7
r75-9
D21.0
rl25.2
p-56.4
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
| ^ R E A L GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
273. Final sales,
constant
(1958) dollars
246. Change in
business inventories,
constant
(1958) dollars
247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, constant
(1958) dollars
248. Fixed investment, residential
structures, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
249. Gross auto
product, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
263. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services,
constant (1958)
dollars
267. State and local
government purchases of goods and
services, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
766.7
780.0
789.7
805.3
+4.2
+6.6
+8.5
+8.8
81.3
82.4
83.8
87.2
33.8
34.2
34.3
34.8
37.5
40.9
41.8
825.5
829.6
832.7
825.7
+7.3
+7.8
+8.0
+20.0
92.2
94.3
95.1
96.0
35.0
34.1
32.6
29.8
819.9
818.9
818.1
793.1
+10.6
+8.2
+5.0
+10.9
96.3
96.5
94.1
89.2
r791.9
r-11.7
r83.8
36.1
62.9
62.5
59.5
59.2
80.9
81.3
82.4
83.8
46.3
45.2
43.6
41.6
58.9
57.7
56.2
56.4
85.2
86.2
87.5
89.3
26.4
25.7
23.6
20.4
29.2
32.6
38.9
33.6
56.3
56.3
56.5
57.0
89.7
89.5
89.4
89.3
rl7.3
r26.7
r57.4
r90.2
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16,17, and 18.
72
MAY 1975
BCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
| f f l SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Year
and
quarter
Percent of Gross National Product
241 A. Fixed
investment,
230A. Personal
consumption
expenditures
nonresidential
244A. Fixed
Govt. purchases of
goods and services
266A. State and local
govt. purchases of
goods and services
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
262A. Federal
250A. Net exports of goods
and services
245A. Change
in business
inventories
investment, residential structures
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
62.9
63.0
63.0
62.9
10.1
10.0
10.0
10.2
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
+0.4
+0.7
+0.9
+0.9
-0.6
-0.6
-0.4
-0.4
9.5
9.3
8.8
8.7
13.0
12.9
13.0
13.1
62.6
62.5
62.4
61.3
10.4
10.6
10.6
10.6
4.7
4.6
4.4
4.0
+0.8
+0.8
+0.9
+2.2
-0.1
0.0
+0.5
+0.7
8.5
8.3
8.0
8.1
13.0
13.1
13.1
13.2
61.9
62.8
63.6
62.6
10.6
10.8
10.7
10.6
3.6
3.5
3.3
2.8
+1.2
+1.0
+0.6
+1.2
+0.8
-0.1
-0.2
+0.1
8.2
8.3
8.3
8.7
13.6
13.7
13.8
13.9
r64.4
10.4
2.5
r-1.4
r+0.7
r8.9
14.5
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
jfflSHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Percent of National Income
280A. Compensation
of employees
(Percent)
282A. Proprietors'
income
284A. Rental income
of persons
(Percent)
286A. Corporate profits and
inventory valuation
adjustment
(Percent)
288A. Net interest
(Percent)
(Percent)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
75.0
75.0
74.7
74.3
8.0
8.0
7.9
8.1
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.7
9.6
9.7
10.1
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
73.9
73.9
73.6
73.6
8.7
8.8
9.2
9.3
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
10.1
10.0
9.8
9.6
4.8
4-9
4.9
5.0
74.1
75.1
75.1
75.3
8.8
8.0
8.0
7.9
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3
9.6
9.3
9.2
8.9
5.1
5.3
5.4
5.7
p76.2
P7.4
P2.4
pS.l
p6.0
9.5
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 19.
ItCII
MAY 1975
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^ J E M P L O Y M E N T AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LEADING INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Job
Vacancies
Marginal Employment Adjustments
* 1 . Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
(Hours)
21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production
workers, manufacturing
(Hours)
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
*5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance.
State programs'
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
(Thous.)
(Per 100
employees)
Comprehensive
Employment
48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspapers
(1967=100)
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
1973
January
February
March
April
May
June
40.5
40.9
40.9
3.8
3.9
3.9
4.7
4.8
4.9
|H>223
227
0.9
0.8
0.9
122
119
121
147.00
147.98
148.42
D4O.9
H)4.1
3.9
3.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
238
234
233
0.8
0.8
0.8
121
122
123
148.88
149.15
149.70
D131
126
120
149.90
150.12
150.52
40
40
226
July
August
September...
40.7
40.6
40.7
3.8
3.7
3.8
4.8
4.7
4.9
232
247
2a
0.9
0.8
0.8
October
November . . .
December . . ,
40.7
40.6
40.6
3.7
3.8
3.7
D4.9
4.8
4.4
244
251
284
E>0.8
1.0
1.1
123
120
114
150.90
151.43
151.65
January
February
March
40.4
40.4
40.3
3.5
3.5
3.6
4.3
4.5
4.5
306
323
312
1.5
1.4
1.2
111
108
111
151.05
151.27
151.32
April
May
June
39.3
40.3
40.1
2.8
3.4
3.4
4.6
4.7
4-4
293
291
306
1.1
1.1
1.1
116
115
116
150.52
151.90
151.79
July
August
September...
40.2
40.2
40.0
3.4
3.4
3.3
290
332
362
151.59
151.96
152.36
40.1
39.5
39.4
3.2
2.8
2.7
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.9
2.6
2.6
119
115
103
October
November . . ,
December . . .
4.4
4.3
4.1
3.6
3.1
3.0
94
86
79
H>152.72
150.23
149.16
39.2
38.8
r38.8
2.3
r2.3
r2.3
3.1
3.3
3.5
548
550
545
73
71
70
148.29
rl46.39
rl45.92
P39.0
p2.2
P3.9
P517
3.5
r3.4
2.8
P2.5
p71
P146.55
1974
410
458
504
1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by E ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14,39,40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by B ) . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 20,21, and 39.
•'•Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
74
MAY 1975
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
• ^ E M P L O Y M E N T AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.
Minor Economic
Process
and
month
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT 1NDICATORS-Con.
TIMING CLASS . . . .
* 4 1 . Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
Comprehensive Employment-Con.
•43. Unemployment rate,total
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs'
(Percent)
(Percent)
•44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)
(Percent)
1973
January . . . , ,
February
March
75,472
75,851
76,111
79,182
79,863
80,256
5.0
5.0
4.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.4
1.1
1.0
1.0
April
May
June
76,339
76,508
76,787
80,521
80,669
81,022
5.0
4.9
4.8
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.2
0.9
0.9
0.9
July
August
September...
76,867
77,163
77,315
81,144
81,148
81,626
4.8
4.8
4.8
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.1
2.1
2.1
0.8
0.9
0.9
October
November . . .
December . . .
77,649
77,915
77,924
82,024
82,006
82,011
D4.6
4.8
4.9
2.6
H>2.6
2.8
E>2.1
2.2
2.2
0.8
0.9
H>0.8
January
February . . .
March
77,925
78,053
78,089
82,051
82,050
82,126
5.2
5.2
5.1
3.1
3.2
3.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
0.9
0.9
0.9
April
May
June
78,226
78,357
78,421
82,272
82,565
82,755
5.0
5.2
5.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
2.4
2.2
2.6
1.0
1.0
1.0
July
August
September..
78,479
78,661
78,844
H> 82,970
82,823
82,913
5.3
5.4
5.8
3.2
3.2
3.4
2.7
2.7
2.8
1.0
1.0
1.1
October
November . .
December . .
E>78,865
78,404
77,690
82,864
82,314
81,863
6.0
6.6
7.2
3.7
4.2
4.9
3.0
3.3
3.8
1.1
1.2
1.4
January
February . . .
March
77,227
r76,708
r76,346
81,179
80,701
80,584
8.2
8.2
8.7
5.5
6.0
6.4
4-5
4.7
5.2
1.7
April
May
June
p76,293
80,848
8.9
5.6
2.6
1974
1975
P 6.8
2.0
2.2
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated b y H ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 3 9 , 4 0 , 4 3 , 4 4 , 4 5 , and 93), current low values are indicated by H ) . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 2 1 , 2 2 , 4 1 , and 43.
x
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
ItCII MAY 1975
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
| Q
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Comprehensive Production
200. Gross national product
in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*205. Gross national product
in 1958 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Comprehensive Income
*47.Index of
industrial production
(1967=100)
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
57. Final sales
*56. Manufacturing and trade (series 200
minus series
245)
(Mil. doL)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Sales of retail stores
*54. Current
dollar sales
(Mil. dol.)
59. Deflated
(1967 dollar)
sales
(Mil. dol.)
1973
January
February
March
1,248.9
832.8
122.2
123.4
123.7
1,002.0
1,014-4
1,024.5
235.1
238.0
239.8
135,848
138,047
140,074
1,238.9
40,707
41,242
41,979
April
May
June
1,277.9
837.4
124-1
124.9
125.6
1,031.7
1,038.9
1,047.2
242.2
244-1
246.8
140,022
141,726
141,354
1,267.2
a , 185
a , 723
a,167
33,930
34,106
E>34,393
33,384
33,553
32,832
July
August
September...
1,308.9
840.8
126.7
126.5
126.8
1,056.1
1,067.6
1,080.4
248.4
249.7
253-4
145,583
145,584
145,679
1,297.0
42,767
42,355
42,529
34,011
33,349
33,339
October
November . . .
December . . .
1,344.0
H>845.7
127.0
B>127.5
126.5
1,090.8
1,100.0
1,107.1
255.7
258.7
259.9
149,789
152,335
150,711
1,315.1
42,970
42,976
42,116
33,494
33,209
32,121
January
February
March
1,358.8
830.5
125.4
124.6
124.7
1,107.0
1,113.4
1,117.1
257.4
260.0
260.7
154,064
156,098
159,239
1,341-9
42,932
43,134
43,872
32,393
r32,104
r32,395
April
May
June
1,383.8
827.1
124.9
125.7
125.8
1,125.2
1,135.2
1,143.5
262,
265.
267,
160,675
162,924
163,052
1,370.3
44,283
44,894
44,593
r32,360
r32,415
r31,786
July
August
September...
1,416.3
823.1
125.5
125.2
125.6
1,159.5
1,167.2
1,178.0
268.6
271.7
273.5
168,824
171,644
170,862
1,407.6
r32,755
r32,878
r31,774
October
November . . .
December . . .
SJVL,430.9
804.0
124.8
121.7
117.4
1,185.0
1,184.5
1,191.0
H>274.6
267.4
264.3
Dl71,647
168,335
161,809
1,413.1
46,356
H>47,056
46,177
45,803
44,469
44,821
rl,417.1
r780.2
113.7
rill.2
rlO9.8
1,191.1
1,193.4
rl,195.7
P109.4 P>pl,202.4
261.2
255.4
r255.2
P255.1
45,955
r46,819
r45,937
r30,883
r31,398
r3O,58l
P46,584
p30,829
1974
r31,181
r3O,O19
r3O,198
1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
161,754
rl62,814 H>rl,436.3
pl58,691
(HA)
July
August
September...
October
November . . .
December . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by H ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 4 0 , 4 3 , 4 4 , 4 5 , and 93), current low values are indicated by |H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these scries are shown on pages 23,24, and 42.
76
MAY 1975
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q | F I X E D CAPITAL INVESTMENT
TIMING CLASS . . . .
LEADING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Formation of Business
Enterprises
12.Index of
net business
formation
New Investment Commitments
9. Construction contracts
for commercial and industrial buildings, floor
space1
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
8.Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations'
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
capital goods
industries,
nondefense
(Number)
(Bil.dol.)
(1967=100)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(Million
sq. feet)
(Million
sq. meters)2
119.1
119.9
[H> 120.8
27,796
28,752
28,964
38.37
39.02
40.40
185
191
193
11.33
11.36
11.69
9.50
9.57
9.45
10.04
87.48
85.89
84.71
8.13
7.98
7.87
April
May
June
119.3
118.8
118.5
28,522
28,286
27,999
40.62
41.51
41.95
177
173
183
11.30
11.94
12.76
10.63
9.94
10.04
10.56
83.61
83.73
85.79
7.77
7.78
7.97
July
August
September...
118.2
117.2
115.6
27,664
26,689
26,240
41.84
175
E>199
182
12.62
12.65
12.26
11.32
10.57
10.28
10.39
.42
89.80
83.77
E>8.86
8.34
7.78
October
November . . .
December . . .
116.2
117.6
114.. O
26,809
26,718
24,881
a.98
41.15
43.30
43.48
41.03
191
194
161
13.29
13.40
12.73
11.82
10.93
11.16
10.94
91.60
87.47
69.51
8.51
8.13
6.46
January
February
March
113.3
113.0
113.9
26,511
27,056
26,458
41.52
42.27
41.97
155
187
181
12.66
13.17
13.01
12.46
11.00
11.42
11.30
76.53
80.67
75.07
7.11
7.49
6.97
April
May
June
115.9
116.3
115.7
E>29,071
27,562
25,785
44.12
46.73
46.85
167
188
166
13.67
14.57
13.84
15.31
11.92
11.80
12.01
82.77
77.98
75.83
7.69
7.24
7.04
July
August
September...
118.6
rll4.6
rlll.l
27,790
26,495
26,313
47.71
D49.46
D15.I6
13.52
14.08
H>16.4O
46.40
177
170
187
E>12.80
11.80
11.83
76.64
82.17
73.70
7.12
7.63
6.85
October
November . . .
December . . .
rlO5.2
rlO5.1
rlO6.3
25,404
25,555
25,003
45.08
43.18
37.84
148
154
176
12.87
12.34
13.64
P12.45
11.38
10.62
10.46
62.47
56.71
54.25
5.80
5.27
5.04
January
February
March
rlO2.9
rlO1.7
plO3.O
24,406
r24,298
24,815
36.06
37.02
r35.49
135
135
153
11.39
11.34
rll.44
(HA)
10.08
9.97
r9.52
54.39
46.54
39.69
5.05
4.32
3.69
April
May
June
elO5.2
(NA)
P38.98
189
P13.20
plO.5O
56.90
5.29
Year
and
month
(1967=100)
1973
January
February
March
1974
1975
July
August
September...
October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by H ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14,39,40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by © . S e r i e s numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 2 5 , 2 6 , and 39.
4 1 1 8 is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division (series 8 and 9 ) , or The Conference Board (series 11).
Converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
ItCII
MAY 1975
11
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
••INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
I N F I X E D CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
H I
INVESTMENT
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
LEADING INDICATORS
New Investment
Commitments-Con.
Backlog of Investment
Commitments
Investment Expenditures
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
28. New private
housing units
started, total 1
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
29.Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits 1
(1967=100)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(Bil.dol.)
• 6 1 . Business
97. Backlog of
expenditures on
capital approbations, manu- new plant and
:
equipment,
acturing2
total
(Bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business construction expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
245. Change
in business
inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
* 3 1 . Change in
book value of
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total
37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Percent
reporting)
1973
March
2,486
2,376
2,309
195.4
194.4
182.8
82.27
83.91
86.80
April
May
June
2,096
2,313
2,087
171.2
163.9
178.4
89.60
92.74
96.41
July
August
September...
2,120
2,058
1,861
156.3
153.1
142.7
98.46
101.54
103.45
October
November . . .
December . . .
1,692
1,721
1,441
118.8
117.3
110.7
105.87
108.30
109.86
January
February
March
1,437
1,881
1,511
110.5
114.2
121.5
111.38
113.58
114.93
April
May
June
1,580
1,467
1,533
111.7
96.5
95.3
117.82
122.02
126.08
July
August
September...
1,314
1,156
1,157
87.6
77.6
70.9
129.67
134.30
E>135.70
October
1,106
1,017
67.4
62.9
70.8
134.22
132.66
129.94
999
rl,000
r974
58.8
61.5
r60.8
P990
P77.3
125.87
123.25
rl20.10
pll8.31
January
February
96.19
126.50
126.51
128.52
+10.0
+22.2
+23.4
+19.6
61
63
61
97.76
131.73
132.41
135.14
+10.7
+16.7
+27.8
+30.5
57
58
63
100.90
137.47
135.53
137.26
+11.8
+24.0
+23.9
+22.6
64
61
64
103.74
139.91
142.39
142.81
©+28.9
+26.9
+35.7
+49.6
|H>70
64
65
107.27
144.58
147.63
149.04
+16.9
+35.0
+38.7
+35.8
63
59
57
111.40
149.90
151.29
156.85
+13.5
+25.2
+48.0
+55.4
59
58
56
113.99
151.21
151.16
155.46
+8.7
+59.3
+54.4
+63.8
54
57
58
0)116.22
E>l60.04
159.26
155.69
+17.8
E>+71.9
+40.0
+46.7
49
47
41
all3.22
153.06
155.70
pl50.86
r-19.2
+0.1
r-11.8
p-23.1
37
30
30
(NA)
26
31
25.94
29.42
33.02
36.66
1974
November . . .
December . . .
38.89
44.67
50.31
E>p50.42
1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
(NA)
(NA)
all3.83
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by E ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by IB). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26,27,28,40, and 43.
1
Series that reached their high values prior to 1973 are: Series 28, 2,494 reached in January 1972; and Series 29, 208.5
reached in December 1972.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
ooara.
78
MAY 1975
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
j M l N V E N T O R I E S A N D INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Con.
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing-Con.
Inventories
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
| ^ J P R I C E S , COSTS, AND PROFITS
20. Change in
book value,
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.
and supplies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
26. Prod, materials, companies reporting commitments 60 days
or longer@
(Percent
reporting)
32. Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliveries @
(Percent
reporting)
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive ComStock Prices
modity Prices
25. Change in
unfilled
orders, durable goods
industries
•71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
65. Mfrs.'
inventories of
finished
goods, book
value
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
h
23.Index of
industrial
materials
prices ©
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stock s(u)
(1967=100)
1941-43=10)
Profits and Profit Margins
Corporate profits after
taxes
*16. Current
dollars
18. Constant
1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1973
January
February
March
+4.1
+5.3
+3.2
63
68
67
78
84
88
+1.36
+1.6^
+2.89
198.94
200.89
202.52
35.72
35.87
36.19
139.3
147.5
155.3
D118.42
114.16
112.42
71.5
50.5
April
May
June
+4.2
+5.3
+6.9
77
80
78
90
[R>92
89
+2.80
+3.14
+3.67
203.91
206.23
208.77
36.08
36.45
36.84
158.2
162.9
170.1
110.27
107.22
104.75
74.0
51.4
July
August
September...
+7.6
+6.3
+7.0
82
80
83
88
90
+2.05
+3.09
+1.90
210.77
212.76
214.64
36.85
36.74
37.04
178.1
189.8
186.3
105.83
103.80
105.61
72.9
49.8
October
November . . .
December . . .
+7.9
+5.7
+13.1
87
84
87
90
91
+2.4.2
+2.42
+1.56
216.89
219.87
224.00
37.12
37.33
37.95
188.1
192.4
208.9
109.84
102.03
94.78
73.2
49.1
January
February
March
+12.2
+11.8
+13.8
90
E>91
85
85
88
+1.52
+2.20
+1.34
226.92
230.14
233.12
38.46
38.89
39.11
215.9
232.0
237.2
96.11
93.45
97.44
83.2
54.5
April
May
June
+12.6
+16.0
+13.5
83
84
84
84
79
76
+2.89
+4.20
+4.07
235.22
239.22
243.83
39.35
39.76
40.39
H>238.4
226.2
227.5
92.46
89.67
89.79
83.1
52.9
July
August
September...
[H>+19.7
+17.9
+15.5
83
85
83
72
68
52
+3.58
B>+4.64
+1.39
248.78
253.31
258.62
41.34
42.09
A3.41
228.2
224.2
214.7
82.82
76.03
68.12
E>94.3
D58.2
October
November . . .
December . . .
+9.5
+4.8
+19.2
82
73
69
46
32
22
-1.47
-1.57
44.27
45.58
46.73
204.4'
196.4
183.4
69.44
71.74
67.07
79.5
-2.71
264.61
267.95
271.84
46.9
January
February
March
+8.4
+2.1
-6.1
64
64
58
18
16
17
-4-07
-2.63
r-3.15
R271.84
r270.86
p268.94
47.60
47.70
B>47.73
180.1
181.1
182.3
72.56
80.10
83.78
p6l.8
P35.6
April
May
June
(NA)
57
54
22
p-1.79
(NA)
(HA)
1974
1975
186.4
X
a
84.72
90.14
July
August
September...
October
November . . .
December . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated by [H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14,39,40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [Jj). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (•) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28,29,30,40,41, and 43.
•"•Average for May 6, 13, and 20. s Average for May 7, 14, and 2 1 .
ItCII MAY 1975
79
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^ P R I C E S , COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
Profits and Profit Margins-Con.
22. Ratio,
profits to
income
orig. in
corporate .
business
15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all x
mfg. corp.
(Percent)
(Cents)
Cash Flows
*17. Ratio,
price to unit Net cash flows, corporate
labor cost
index, mfg. 34. Current 35. Constant
(1967=100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Unit Labor Costs
dollars
(1958) dol.
55.Index of
wholesale
prices,
industrial
commod.@
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(1967=100)
58. Index of
Unit labor cost, total
private economy
wholesale
prices, mfd.
63.Index
goods®
63c. Change
(1967=100)
1973
Revised2
103.0
104.1
105.3
112.0
79.1
120.0
121.3
122.8
121.6
123.6
125.7
127.6
11.6
4-7
104.7
105.6
106.4
115.7
80.5
124.2
125.3
126.0
126.4
128.3
130.1
129.8
11.1
4.7
106.0
109.3
106.9
114.8
78.5
126.1
126.7
127.4
129.1
133.4
131.8
132.1
10.8
5.7
106.3
107.5
108.6
115.5
78.1
128.5
130.1
132.2
132.0
132.8
135.1
134.7
11.6
5.8
110.7
111.2
112.2
125.7
83.4
135.3
138.2
142-4
138.6
140.9
143.6
139.9
12.1
5.6
112.8
113-9
114.0
126.3
81.5
146.6
150.5
153.6
146.0
149.3
151.5
144.1
E>13.5
1>5.9
116.7
119.5
120.0
E>138.6
E>86.4
157.8
161.6
162.9
156.4
161.8
162.4
11.1
4.9
120.9
H)121.5
119.9
125.5
74.0
164.8
165.8
166.1
165.2
166.2
166.9
153.6
p9.2
(NA)
rll7.5
rll6.3
1-113.9
plO9.1
p62.2
167.5
168.4
168.9
168.2
168.0
167.8
E>157.6
B>169.7
D168.7
July
September
*62.Index
of labor
cost per
unit of output, mfg.
(Dollars)
(1967=100)
7.5
4.7
March
October
November
December
Revised 2
11.4
January
April
May
June
(1967=100)
over 1-Q
spans
(Ann. rate,
percent)
68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per
unit of gross
prod. (1958
dol.), corp.
0.858
118.4
118.4
119.0
0.870
120.2
120.7
121.2
0.884
121.6
122.4
123-3
0.905
124.7
124.8
125.4
0.937
125.6
126.5
127.4
0.964
129.0
130.2
131.8
6.8
7.4
••
8.0
1974
January
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
. ..
B>16.5
12.6
...
134.0
134.6
135.5
12.8
148.5
•• •
•>*
0.993
*•*
1.023
136.8
138.1
140.5
E>pl.O44
1-144.0
1-144-4
1-147.0
14-4
1975
January
February
March
plU-3
April
May
June
July
August.
September
10.8
E>PH7.3
. . .
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated b y H ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [R}. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series-preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30,31,32,41, and 43.
1
Data beginning with the 4th quarter 1973 are not comparable with earlier data due to changes in the definition of profits
and in the rules for consolidation. The figure for the 4th quarter 1973 on the old basis is 4.8.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
80
MAY 1975
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
| H | M O N E Y AND CREDIT
TIMING CLASS . . . .
LEADING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Credit Difficulties
Flows of Money and Credit
85. Change in
U.S. money x
supply (M1)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
102. Change in
money supply
plus time
deposits at
commercial
banks (M2)1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
103. Change in
money supply
plus time deposits at banks
and nonbank institutions (M3)1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
112. Net
33. Net change
in mortgage debt change in
held by financial bank loans to
institutions and
businesses3
life insurance
companies2
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)
+5.16
+4.67
+0.47
+9.36
+7.02
+5-40
+10.65
+8.45
+6.99
+47.92
+49.33
+53.46
+23.70
+50.95
+41.00
+6.51
+13.42
+13.72
+7.85
+12.03
+11.69
+8.20
+11.18
+11.76
+52.75
+53-51
+57.43
+26.14
+14.32
+13.07
July
August
September...
+3.62
-0.45
-1.35
+5.24
+6.96
+4-54
+5.96
+5.26
+4-43
+53.60
+52.30
+43.74
October
November . . .
December . . .
+4.06
+12.60
+9.35
+9.48
+11.97
+10.58
+8.42
+10.49
+10.27
-2.65
+9.75
+9.23
+6.92
+11.26
+9.50
+7.31
+9.47
+9.65
April
May
June
+6.10
+4.34
+10.37
+7.99
+4.48
+11.16
July
August
September...
r+1.71
r+0.43
r+0.86
October
November . .
December . .
April
May
June
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
110. Total
private
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol)
14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures®1
(Mil. dol.)
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over,
consumer
installment
loans1
(Percent)
Revised
1973
January
February
March
•113. Net
change in consumer installment debt
185,696
205.84
137.16
252.35
+16.85
+23.89
+19.34
178,460
119.34
167.95
180.21
+22.94
+29.40
+6.02
+23.98
+22.74
+16.31
184,496*
206.19
190.15
189-47
+40.69
+39.76
+31.66
+3.13
+4.31
+17.00
+20.40
+20.71
+4-92
161,928
185.66
218.67
245.62
+36.94
+11.00
+8.05
+7.40
rl57,216
r+41-94
+19.79
+1.04
+30.01
337.28
213.13
204.59
+7.53
+3.68
+8.98
IED+50.86
+47.59
+39.40
E)+52.21
+20.42
+14-92
+13.84
+15.14 [H>r207,192
+13.03
209.76
375.69
215.50
r+5.02
r+4.60
r+2.99
+4.90
+3-63
+2.87
+40.28
+31.58
+31.21
+44.54
+14-17
+21.02
+15.90
+18.14
+8.12
rl64,088
153.40
232.68
217.01
r+3-85
r+8.52
r+3.38
r+8.35
r+7.90
r+3.73
+7.34
+7.42
+5.90
+28.81
+24.23
+16.25
+9.90
+21.42
+14.22
+4.82
-4.80
-9.77
306.83
344-66
242.59
2.65
rl42,088
r-9.28
r+5.53
r+11.01
r+3.91
r+9.36
r+11.80
+6.48
+IO.46
+13.98
+24.80
+30.29
r+29.04
-11.59
-34.55
-25.22
-4.81
+2.84
-5.24
p89,200
391.14
423.45
343.35
2.59
2.71
2.94
p+7.66
+10.68
p+11.68
(NA)
p-19.94
5
-13.15
(HA)
(NA)
(NA)
+23.39
+23.96
H>+24.53
2.01
2.01
1.99
2.02
2.11
2.27
1974
January
February
March
+39.94
2.54
2.56
2.61
Z.bi
2.80
1975
January
February
March
April
May
p+4-19
5
+6.69
5
June
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are indicated b y E ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by (H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 33,34, and 41. 1Series that reached their high values prior to 1973 are: Series 85, +14..24 reached
in December 1972; Series 102, +18.98 reached in February 1971; Series 103, +17.49 in February 1971; Series 14, 86.79 reached
in December 1972; and Series 39, 1.71 in December 1971. 2Data include conventional mortgages held by the Government National
Mortgage Association. sData beginning October 1974 are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See "New Features and
Changes for This Issue," on page iii of the October 1974 issue. 4 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
Average for weeks ended May 7 and 14.
MAY 1975
81
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
| ^ M O N E Y AND CREDIT-Con.
Minor Economic
Process
LAGGING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS . . . .
Bank
Reserves
93. Free
reserves @
Year
and
month
Interest Rates
119.Federal funds
114. Treasury bill
rate®
rate®
Outstanding Debt
116. Cor115. Treas- 117. Municporate bond ury bond
ipal bond
yields ®
yields® yields ®
66. Consumer
installment
debt
Interest Rates
72. Commercial
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly reporting large
commercial
banks 1
(Mil.dol.)
109. Average prime
rate charged
by b a n k s ®
*67. Bank
rates on
short-term
business
loans, 35
cities ®
118. Mortgage yields,
residen-
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
lial®
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
March
-823
-1,388
-1,563
5.94
6.58
7.09
5.31
5.56
6.05
7.61
7.67
7.75
5.96
6.14
6,20
5.05
5.13
5.29
126,388
128,385
130,429
93,885
98,131
101,548
6.00
6.02
6.30
6.52
7.55
7.56
7.63
April
May
June
-1,564
-1,638
-1,653
7.12
7.84
8.49
6.29
6.35
7.19
7.70
7.69
7.73
6.11
6.25
6.32
5.15
5.14
5.18
131,833
133,824
135,436
103,726
104,919
106,008
6.60
7.01
7.49
7.35
7.73
7.79
7.89
July
August
September...
-1,584
-1,734
-1,477
10.40
10.50
10.78
8.02
8.67
8.48
7.97
8.45
8.10
6.53
6.85
6.41
5.40
5.48
5.10
137,434
139,329
140,688
107,920
110,370
110,872
8.30
9.23
9.86
9.24
8.19
(NA)
9.18
October
November . . .
December . . .
-1,141
-1,111
-995
10.01
10.03
9.95
7.16
7.87
7.36
7.97
7.95
8.09
6.25
6.30
6.35
5.05
5.18
5.12
142,388
144,114
144,524
111,133
111,492
112,909
9.94
9.75
9.75
10.08
8.97
8.86
8.78
January
February
March
-790
-980
-1,444
9.65
8.97
9.35
7.76
7.06
7.99
8.32
8.21
8.60
6.56
6.54
6.81
5.22
5.20
5.40
145,441
146,112
146,729
114,558
114,645
117,146
9.73
9.21
8.83
9.91
(NA)
8.54
8.66
April
May
June
-1,506
-2,282
-2,739
10.51
11.31
11.93
8.23
8.43
8.14
9.04
9.39
9.59
7.04
7.09
7.02
5.73
6.02
6.13
147,882
149,144
150,230
121,497
123,199
124,442
10.02
11.25
11.54
11.15
9.17
9.46
9.46
July
August..
September...
-2,982 R>12.92
-3,008
12.01
-2,957
11.34
7.75
B>8.74
8.36
10.18
10.30
7.18
JD10.44
B7.33
6.68
6.71
6.76
151,555
153,067
153,744
128,154
129,335
130,988
11.98
12.00
E>12.4O
|H>12.00
9.85
10.30
October
November . . .
December . . .
-1,585
-960
-332
10.06
9.45
8.35
7.24
7.58
7.18
10.29
9.22
9.47
7.22
6.93
6.77
6.57 10)154,146
153,746
6.61
152,932
E>7.05
131,813
133,598
E>134,783
11.68
10.83
10.50
II.64
10.13
(NA)
9.51
-4a
7.13
6.24
5.54
6.49
5.58
5.54
9.17
8.84
9.48
6.68
6.66
10.05
8.96
7.93
9.94
8.99
8.84
8.69
(Mil.dol.)
(Percent)
(Mil.dol.)
1973
January
February
1974
7.30
DlO.38
1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
+95
r+167
P+133
2
+94
3
5.49
5.25
3
5.69
5-34
4
9.81
9.85
6.77
4
7.05
7.02
5
6.82
6.39
6.74
152,531
152,768
152,331
133,817
130,938
128,836
6.95
6.94
(NA)
P127,174
6
126,078
7
7.50
7.47
(NA)
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated b y ® . Current high values are indicated by IB); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by |H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and " N A " , not-available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 35,36, and 43.
1
Data beginning with September 1974 are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See "New Features and Changes for This
Issue," on page iii of the October 1974 issue. 2Average for weeks ended May 7, 14, and 21. 3Average for weeks ended May 3,
4
5
10, 17, and 24. Average for weeks ended May 2, 9, 16, and 23.
weeks ended May 7 and 14. 'Average for May 1 through 22.
82
Average for weeks ended May 1, 8, 15, and 22.
Average for
MAY 1975
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
gJjcOMPOSITE INDEXES
820. Five
coincides,
estimated
aggregate
economic
activity
(series 41,43,
47,52, 56)
Year
and
month
(1967=10pJ_
825. Five
coinciders, estimated aggregate economic
activity,
deflated
(series 41,43,
47,52D, 56D)
(1967=100)
830. Six
laggers
(series 44,
61,62,67,
71,72)
Leading Indicator Subgroups
813. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1,2,
3,5)
814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6,10,
12,29)
815.Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 23,
25,31,37)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
816. Profitability
(series 16,
17,19)
(1967=100)
817. Sensitive
financial flows
(series 33,85,
112,113)
(1967=100)
1973
January
February
March
147.6
149-4
150.9
134-9
136.1
136.5
145.6
U9.2
151.9
102.2
102.5
103.2
121.2
121.6
122.2
114.8
116.6
118.8
115.6
116.3
118.5
124.2
125.9
|H>128.6
April
May
June
151.8
153.3
154.5
136.7
137.4
137.6
155.6
158.3
162.5
B>103.3
120.8
120.9
E>122.4
118.6
121.3
123.9
118.1
103.2
102.3
119.0
118.8
120.4
123.7
121.9
July
August
September
156.4
157.4
158.5
139.5
138.7
139.9
167.4
171.0
173.6
101.7
102.2
102.8
121.1
120.5
118.9
123.6
126.9
125.3
118.6
120.8
119.2
122.5
117.4
108.7
October
November
December
161.0
162.6
162.1
141.6
H)142.2
140.5
177.2
178.9
182.2
102.6
100.8
97.7
118.9
119.2
116.1
127.1
129.1
132.9
119.6
119.0
119.5
108.2
110.6
104.7
February
March
161.6
162.4
163.6
138.8
138.4
138.5
184.3
186.4
190.8
95.3
95.2
94-8
115.7
116.6
117.3
132.1
135-2
134.6
122.8
123.7
125.6
106.9
109.6
115.8
April
May
June
I64.8
165.9
166.6
138.7
138.6
138.2
195.1
199.8
204.5
95.6
95.6
96.1
118.3
118.4
117.7
135.3
137.3
138.0
124.8
125.0
126.4
123.1
121.0
rll6.1
168.5
169.5
169.5
138.8
138.2
137.3
210.5
214.5
216.3
95.8
94.3
137.8
B>138.0
134-4
128.0
D129.4
92.3
118.9
rll5.9
rll3.3
125.4
rll5.9
rll3.7
rlO5.7
B>169.5
165.9
161.2
136.1
132.3
128.2
219.0
H>220.4
219.8
88.5
85.0
83.1
rlO9.6
ri.08.2
rlO8.8
129.4
124.0
120.3
124.9
124.4
rll9.3
106.1
r l O l .1
r93.2
157.8
rl56.4
125.2
rl24.0
121.9
r217.3
r212.3
211.6
81.2
r80.9
pSl.8
104.2
rlO4.3
ri.04.3
113.0
rill.8
rllO.5
rll6.9
rll5.7
rll4.5
90.3
r91.0
r89.2
P209.1
(NA)
P 109.2
pill.7
P115.3
(NA)
J974
July . .
August
September
.
.
. .
October
November
December
1975
January
February
March
April
May
June
154.0
I
.
121.6
. .
July
August
September
October . .
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated b y ® . Current high values are indicated b y H ) ; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39,40,43,44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by |H>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 37 and 38.
1
Excludes series 56 for which data are not yet available.
MAY 1975
83
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Q |
Year
and
quarter
AGGREGATE SERIES
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, all industries
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
b. Second
anticipations as
percent of actual
c. First
anticipations as
percent of actual
(Percent)
(Percent)
4 4. Condition
of manufacturers'
in ventories: percent considered
h gh less percent
CO nsidered low
412. Manufacturers' inventories,
total book value
410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value
(Percent)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
86.79
87.12
87.67
91.94
100.9
104.1
103.1
100.5
100.4
102.3
102.3
99.9
177.8
182.7
188.2
198.3
103.0
104.3
106.2
107.7
12
10
11
10
96.19
97.76
100.90
103.74
100.6
100.8
101.0
101.2
100.5
102.4
100.9
100.6
206.1
211.6
216.7
225.4
110.2
113.0
116.1
120.9
11
12
13
107.27
111.40
113.99
116.22
99.9
99.3
99.1
98.4
100.8
98.7
99.3
99.8
231.6
241.3
255.7
253.7
126.5
133.5
143.0
150.4
18
22
23
31
all3.22
all3.83
(NA)
(M)
ra246.1
a256.1
ral55-6
al6l.3
(NA)
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
9
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
^ 9
H H AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
416. Adequacy
of mfrs.' capacity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive
(Percent)
D61. Business expenditures for new
plant and equipment, all industries
435.Index of
consumer
sentiment ®
a. Actual
expenditures
(First quarter
1966=100)
DIFFUSION INDEXES
b. Second
anticipations
(1-Qspan)
D440. New orders,
manufacturing1 @
c. First
anticipations
(1-Qspan)
Anticipated
Actual
(1-Qspan)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
24
26
31
35
87.5
89.3
94.0
90.8
44.4
50.0
55.6
83.3
77.8
63.9
88.9
75.0
75.0
44.4
47.2
50.0
82
84
86
84
82
86
88
88
41
45
48
51
80.8
76.0
71.8
75.7
83.3
61.1
83.3
66.7
77.8
77.8
72.2
75.0
86.1
63.9
61.1
72.2
88
90
88
86
38
90
88
87
51
49
45
32
60.9
72.0
64.5
58.4
77.8
86.1
61.1
63.9
72.2
77.8
61.1
55.6
75.0
86.1
69.4
61.1
84
82
74
59
86
80
85
80
(NA)
58.0
(HA)
36.1
66.7
52.8
50
72
59
70
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44,45, and 46.
^•This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc.
84
MAY 1975
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Q j
Year
and
quarter
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade1 ®
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
D446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade1 ®
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade1 @
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
74
76
79
80
76
82
84
83
82
82
85
86
78
79
76
76
82
85
84
80
74
76
71
63
52
Actual
Anticipated
D450. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade1 ®
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
83
88
90
88
56
58
62
60
58
60
61
60
64
66
72
71
61
66
66
66
86
89
86
85
88
90
90
88
63
62
60
60
60
63
62
60
73
76
75
76
69
72
72
70
80
74
79
77
82
84
80
70
86
78
86
82
5S
59
56
49
61
56
60
58
78
79
78
69
70
67
72
72
68
58
66
57
75
62
73
44
53
48
54
58
64
54
50
(4-Q span)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
Q j
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Selling prices
Year
and
quarter
D460. Manufacturing
and trade 1 ®
1
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
D464. Wholesale trade 1 ®
D462. Manufacturing ®
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
Actual
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
D466. Retail trade1 ©
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
74
76
76
78
68
74
75
72
70
72
72
74
68
72
72
70
80
81
82
80
70
78
80
74
73
78
79
81
67
74
74
74
86
86
90
92
76
82
85
83
82
84
86
90
73
80
83
82
90
89
92
96
80
86
88
84
90
87
93
93
76
85
88
83
94
96
94
90
87
90
92
91
92
96
94
89
86
89
92
90
96
96
94
91
88
94
92
91
92
97
96
92
87
89
92
93
80
87
76
69
81
86
76
68
80
87
74
70
80
88
75
72
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "a", estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
1
T M s is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc.
MAY 1975
85
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FOREIGN TRADE
Year
and
month
500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)
(Mil. dol.)
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
(Mil. dol.)
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles
and parts
(Mil. dol.)
508. Index of export orders,
nonelectrical machinery
(1967=100)
512. General imports, total
(Mil. dol.)
1973
January
February
March
-289
-413
-102
4,955
5,070
5,311
2,304
2,248
2,307
164
172
184
5,244
5,483
5,414
April
May
June
+133
-142
-47
5,494
5,561
5,728
2,111
2,258
2,109
193
184
207
5,360
5,703
5,775
July
August
September...
+37
+32
+776
5,865
6,042
6,420
2,228
2,853
2,104
189
192
194
5,829
6,010
5,644
October
November . . .
December . . .
+589
+194
+658
6,585
6,879
6,949
2,633
2,291
2,665
195
205
191
5,996
6,684
6,291
January
February
March
+653
+232
-116
7,150
7,549
7,625
2,828
2,872
3,115
213
216
205
6,497
7,317
7,742
April
May
June
+83
-612
-257
8,108
7,652
8,317
3,375
3,520
2,960
219
206
210
8,025
8,264
8,573
July
August
September..
-610
-882
-302
8,308
8,380
8,396
2,900
3,204
3,327
211
219
215
8,918
9,262
8,698
October
November . .
December . .
-96
+9
-388
8,673
8,974
8,862
3,565
3,264
3,305
207
190
178
8,769
8,965
9,250
-210
+917
+1,380
9,412
8,789
8,716
3,295
3,166
p3,647
187
172
pl76
9,622
7,872
+557
8,570
(NA)
(NA)
8,013
1974
1975
January
February . . .
March
April
May
June
7^36
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
86
MAY 1975
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
[ ^
Year
and
quarter
250. Balance
on goods and
services
(Mil.dol.)
515. Balance
on goods, services,
and remittances
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
519. Balance on
current account
and long-term
capital
517. Balance
on current
account
530. Liquid
liabilities to all
foreigners'®
522. Official
reserve transactions balance
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
521. Net
liquidity balance
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
-1,763
-1,722
-1,194
-1,330
-2,167
-2,118
-1,579
-1,769
-2,753
-2,676
-2,152
-2,226
-3,898
-2,383
-2,908
-2,044
-3,327
-2,346
-4,445
-3,736
-3,147
-872
-4,722
-1,611
66,925
69,880
75,498
78,679
-185
116
1,659
2,736
-589
-295
1,247
2,019
-946
-940
762
1,572
-1,008
-1,170
1,891
-741
-6,614
-1,777
1,652
-869
-10,195
286
1,942
2,661
85,524
86,380
86,560
r87,533
2,816
-206
-247
p826
2,426
-673
-703
P363
-135
-2,108
-1,475
p-310
1,719
2,563
-3,874
p-5,866
-970
-6,396
-4,463
r-7,407
1,046
-4,522
-320
r-4,531
r91,040
r98,805
rlO5,346
rlll,663
(HA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
p2,690
p-2,805
(NA)
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
QJBALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
532. Liquid
and certain
nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies'®
(Mil.dol.)
534. U.S.
official
reserve
assets2®
(Mil.dol.)
Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
Income on investment, military
transactions, other services
Merchandise, adjusted3
Goods and services
252. Exports
253. Imports
536. Exports
537. Imports
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
540. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
541. Imports
(Mil. dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
53,806
54,604
60,075
61,526
12,270
13,339
13,217
13,151
17,265
17,212
18,323
19,618
19,028
18,934
19,517
20,948
11,655
11,534
12,357
13,222
13,482
13,329
13,953
14,990
5,610
5,678
5,966
6,396
5,546
5,605
5,564
5,958
71,335
70,701
69,777
66,810
12,931
12,914
12,927
14,378
22,193
23,847
25,922
29,012
22,378
23,731
24,263
26,276
15,230
16,679
18,152
20,216
16,184
17,042
17,574
19,006
6,963
7,168
7,770
8,796
6,194
6,689
6,689
7,270
65,527
69,994
r7O,6O6
r76,570
14,588
14,946
15,893
15,883
33,067
35,046
36,766
P 37,768
30,251
35,252
37,013
p36,942
22,212
23,921
24,731
p26,217
22,387
25,595
27,205
p27,775
10,855
11,125
12,035
pll,551
7,864
9,657
9,808
p9,l67
(NA)
16,256
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(HA)
(HA)
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49,50. and 51.
1
2
3
Amount outstanding at end of quarter.
Reserve position at end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes
transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts ''exports) and Department of Defense purchases I imports)
BCII MAY 1975
87
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Income on Investments, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)
Travel
Income on investments
544. Receipts
from foreign travelers in the U.S.
(Mil, dol.)
543. Foreign
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil, dol.)
542. U.S. investments abroad
(Mil, dol.)
Transportation and other services
Military transactions
545. Payments
by U.S. travelers
abroad
(Mil, dol.)
546. Sales under
military contracts
(Mil, dol.)
547. Military
expenditures
abroad ®
(Mil, dol.)
548. Receipts
549. Payments
from
for
(Mil, dol.)
(Mil, dol.)
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
2,411
2,435
2,679
2,894
1,391
1,417
1,467
1,618
645
672
690
710
1,191
1,212
1,233
1,308
326
281
252
295
1,222
1,242
1,109
1,185
2,228
2,290
2,345
2,497
1,742
1,734
1,755
1,847
3,194
3,308
3,502
3,980
1,747
2,100
2,245
2,602
818
773
842
843
1,308
1,392
1,323
1,384
342
446
520
1,046
1,175
1,209
1,067
1,169
2,609
2,641
2,906
2,927
1,964
1,988
2,054
2,115
6,149
6,382
7,021
p6,390
3,045
4,512
4,739
p3,968
978
866
918
P973
1,391
1,454
1,358
pl,419
666
651
805
p844
1,166
1,319
1,278
pl,302
3,062
3,226
3,291
P3,344
2,262
2,372
2,433
p2,478
(HA)
(HA)
(HA)
(HA)
(HA)
(HA)
(HA)
(HA)
1973
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter . ,
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Year
and
quarter
Securities investments
Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
561. U.S. investments
abroad
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
564. Foreign purchases
of U.S. securities
565. U.S. purchases
of foreign securities
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
575. Banking and other
capital transactions, net
570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
(Mil. dol.)
1972
First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
-215
216
158
224
1,121
314
1,318
765
1,059
961
718
1,769
437
346
-209
79
-757
-807
-986
-1,334
-923
365
-1,125
-1,523
351
588
886
712
1,815
973
710
1,374
1,718
489
1,173
670
-51
124
209
525
-943
-555
-1,514
-1,628
-2,310
-579
-26
-3,034
1,281
1,677
-89
p-561
627
1,527
2,047
p2,600
687
419
168
p-75
646
313
306
P 686
-1,320
-597
-974
P-1,546
-7,194
-7,606
-1,361
p-4,015
(HA)
(HA)
(HA)
(HA)
(HA)
(NA)
1973
First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by <§>. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
MAY 1975
BCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Defense Indicators
Receipts and Expenditures
Year
and
month
600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (•), naional income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
602. Federal
expenditures,
national income
and product
accounts
264. National
defense purchases
616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
648. New orders, defense
products
(Mil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
military
625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
assistance
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1973
-11.2
24.9.1
260.2
75.0
6,840
7,337
7,361
1,631
1,838
1,704
1.62
1.63
1.80
2,824
2,899
2,947
-7.4
255.0
262.4.
74.0
6,739
7,269
7,069
1,349
1,730
1,633
1.90
1.79
1.96
2,568
3,171
2,897
-1.7
261.8
263.4
73.3
7,203
7,039
6,260
1,483
1,676
1,099
1.18
1.90
1.34
2,106
3,276
3,222
-2.3
268.3
270.6
75.3
7,671
7,443
6,794
1,788
1,771
1,149
1.83
2.12
1.45
3,176
3,515
2,850
January
February . . .
March
-2.a
278.1
281.0
75.8
7,527
7,348
7,186
2,077
1,708
1,642
2.18
2.06
1.46
3,378
3,141
April
May
June
-3.0
288.6
291.6
76.6
7,883
7,302
7,663
2,040
1,330
1,412
1.53
2.08
1.75
4,343
2,881
3,440
-1.9
302.8
304.7
78.4
8,177
8,199
7,781
1,919
1,692
1,842
1.38
3.23
1.68
3,494
4,153
3,502
r-23.7
r295.6
319.3
84.0
'',603
8,138
8,228
1,446
2,349
1,431
1.40
2.35
1.67
4,161
3,777
2,532
p-54-7
p283.8
r338.5
r84.7
7,609
7,508
8,223
1,424
1,509
2,349
1.64
2.15
1.70
3,693
3,987
2,817
(HA)
(HA)
p i . 72
(HA)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . . .
1974
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
1975
January
February . . .
March
April
May
June
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by <§). Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
ItCII
MAY 1975
89
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
| Q P R I C E MOVEMENTS
Year
and
month
Fixed weighted price index,
gross private product
211. Index
(1958=100)
Consumer price indexes
211c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
781. Index®
781c. Change
over 1-month
spans'
(1967=100)
(Percent)
781c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(2)
(2)
1973
April
May
June
148.0
July
August
September
151.0
•••
October
November
December
784. Services©
(1967=100)
(2)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
rlZL.O
121.4
121.9
135.7
136.2
136.6
0.5
0.6
rO.8
r6.8
r7.3
7.9
129.2
rl31.0
rl34.0
8.1
130.7
131.5
132.4
rO.7
rO.5
rO.6
r7.5
rlO.O
r8.7
rl36.2
rl37.9
rl39.8
122.4
122.8
123.3
137.1
137.6
138.1
8.4
132.7
135.1
135.5
rO.3
r8.9
r9.6
9.7
139.9
rl48.8
148.0
rl23.5
rl23.9
rl24.2
138.4
139.3
140.6
136.6
137.6
138.5
0.8
0.8
r0.7
rll.4
rl49.0
rl50.9
rl52.1
125.0
125.9
rl26.8
142.2
143.0
143.8
139.7
141.5
143.1
1.1
rl.l
rl.O
rll.3
rll.8
12.3
rl54.6
rl57.4
rl58.2
rl28.4
rl29.8
131.5
144.8
145.8
147.0
12.2
143.9
145.5
146.9
r0.7
rl.O
0.9
rll.8
rll.8
rl2.1
rl58.3
rl59.7
rl60.3
rl32.9
134.2
135.8
147.9
149.4
150.9
13.8
•••
•••
148.0
149.9
151.7
r0.8
rl.l
rl.2
rl2.7
rl2.5
12.2
159.4
rl62.2
rl64.8
rl37.5
rl39.3
rl40.8
152.5
154.2
155.9
12.6
153.0
154.3
rll.7
rlO.4
r8.5
166.9
rl68.8
170.4
141.8
142.9
rl43.8
157.3
158.6
155.4
C.9
0.9
r0.8
156.1
157.2
157.8
0.6
rO.5
0.3
7.8
rl71.9
rl71.4
rl70.3
rl44-5
rl45.6
146.4
161.3
162.6
163.2
158.6
0.6
170.9
147.5
164.I
9.1
154.4
•••
783. Commodities less
food
127.7
128.6
129.8
7.4
145.1
February
March
782.Food
All items
•»•
rl.7
rO.3
rlO.O
11.7
1974
January
February
March
159.5
April
May
June
164.2
July
August
September
rl69!6
October
November
December
rl74.7
U.I
160.0
1975
r7.7
February
March
April
May
June
rl78.0
July
August
September
October
I November
1 December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "1" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-quarter changes are placed
on 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4-th month.
s
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
90
MAY 1975
BCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con.
Wholesale price indexes
Year
and
month
750. All
commodities®
58. Manufactured
goods®
751. Processed
foods and feeds
752. Farm
products
Industrial commodities
55. I n d e x ®
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
Revised-"
1973
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
55c. Change
over 1-month
spans'
(Percent)
Revised2
55c. Change
over 6-month
spans'
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Revised"'
0.2
rO.9
1.1
rO.8
r0.8
0.7
8.0
8.6
9.3
8.4
10.0
12.3
128.5
130.1
132.2
r0.2
0.6
r0.7
rl.l
1.5
rl.8
200.6
200.4
193.5
135.3
138.2
142.4
2.0
r2.0
r2.8
28.5
31.1
.32.2
I6I.4
160.0
156.0
187.9
180.8
164.5
146.6
150.5
153.6
r2.6
r2.5
2.2
34-4
35.6
30.8
156.4
161.8
162.4
166.9
177.9
177.0
180.8
186.8
184.4
157.8
161.6
162.9
r2.9
2.5
1.0
27.9
23.8
19.5
170.2
171.9
171.5
165.2
166.2
166.9
185.0
193.8
188.2
193.1
194.0
186.1
164.8
165.8
166.1
rl.5
rO.8
r0.4
14.0
9.5
7.6
January
February . . .
March
171.8
171.3
170.4
168.2
168.0
167.8
185.3
180.3
175.7
177.9
170.2
168.1
167.5
168.4
168.9
0.5
r0.4
rO.l
4.7
April
May
June
172.1
168.7
181.9
179.3
169.7
0.1
January
February . . .
March
126.9
129.8
121.6
123.6
125.7
131.7
135.5
140.4
143.3
147.5
158.1
120.0
121.3
122.8
April
May
June
130.5
133.2
136.0
126.4
128.3
130.1
141.5
145.9
150.7
161.7
170.2
178.4
124.2
125.3
126.0
July
August
September..
134.3
142.1
139.7
129.1
133.4
131.8
145.5
164.9
156.3
172.1
211.8
201*8
126.1
126.7
127.4
October
November . .
December . .
138.7
139.2
141.8
132.0
132.8
135.1
154.5
154.8
155.7
193.6
189.9
189.9
January
February . . .
March
146.6
149.5
151.4
138.6
140.9
143.6
161.1
162.6
161.5
April
May
152.7
155.0
155.7
146.0
149.3
151.5
161.7
167.4
167.2
9.4
8.6
7.8
16.5
19.8
24.9
1974
June
July
August
jr
October
November . .
December . .
1975
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month percent changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month percent changes
are placed on the 4th month.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
MAY 1975
91
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourlv earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adj. 1
Year
and
month
Heal earnings
Current dollar earnings
740.Index
(1967=100)
740c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)
740c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
741.Index
(1967=100)
741c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)
741c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
859. Real
spendable
avg. weekly
earnings of
nonagri. prod,
or nonsupv.
workers
(1967 dol.)
Revised3
1973
January
February
March
142.3
142.7
143.5
0.3
0.2
0.6
5.9
5.9
5.9
111.2
110.8
110.5
-0.2
-0.4
-0.3
r-0.8
r-1.3
April
May
June
144.4
144.8
146.0
0.7
0.2
0.8
6.4
7.1
7.7
rllO.4
rllO.l
110.4
July
August
September..
146.8
147.7
US.9
0.6
0.6
0.8
7.2
7.8
7.2
rllO.6
October
November . .
December . .
149.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
6.7
ri.09.6
150.3
151.1
6.9
6.5
ri.09.3
109.1
January
February . . .
March
151.7
152.6
153.6
0.4
0.6
0.6
6.5
7.8
9.6
April
May
June
154.3
156.1
158.2
0.4
1.2
1.3
July
August
September..
158.7
160.2
161.9
October
November . .
December . .
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy
Current dollar compensation
745.Index
(1967=100)
3
Revised
745c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
3
745c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Revised
-1.9
96.42
96.32
96.17
14-5.3
r-0.1
-0.3
rO.3
r-1.0
r-2.6
r-1.0
96.34
95.83
95.89
147.3
r0.2
r-1.1
rO.5
96.23
94-78
95.40
149.7
r-0.4
-0.3
r-0.2
r-1.5
r-1.6
-2.3
r-4.2
r-2.9
r-4.7
94.58
94-43
94.22
152.7
r8.7
A08.3
rlO7.8
rlO7.4
-0.7
r-0.5
-0.4
r-4.4
r-3.5
-2.4
92.75
92.52
91.77
156.0
9.4
9.5
10.2
11.1
107.2
107.3
107.8
r-0.2
0.1
rO.5
r-2.0
-1.4
r-0.9
91.16
91.62
91.55
160.2
0.3
1.0
1.1
11.7
10.3
8.9
rlO7.2
107.0
ri.06.9
r-0.6
r-0.2
r-0.1
91.18
90.90
90.78
163.9
163.1
163.9
165.1
0.7
0.5
0.7
9.3
r8.9
r8.7
1-106.7
rlO6.3
106.2
r-0.2
-0.4
r-0.1
r-0.9
r-1.9
-2.9
r-2.1
r-1.3
0.2
90.31
88.79
89.08
167.7
January
February . . .
March
166.0
rl67.2
rl68.8
0.5
r0.7
rl.O
p7.1
r-106.0
ri.06.3
1-107.0
r-0.2
rO.3
0.7
p-0.7
88.08
87.69
87.59
171.6
April
May
June
pl68.8
pO.O
PIO6.4
p-0.6
109.4
rllO.O
11.2
7.5
5.6
r7.9
6.8
r7.3
8.2
1974
11.2
r9.8
9.7
10.0
9.6
1975
9.6
p87.46
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
•••Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
2
Peroent changes are centered within the spans: 1-nonth changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-q-uarter changes are placed
on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle
month of the 3d quarter.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
92
MAY 1975
ItCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.
Year
and
month
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy—Con.
748. First
year average
changes
Real compensation
746. Index
(1967=100)
746c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
746c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
749. Average
changes over
life of
contract
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Revised
1973
112! 8
4-7
7.1
0.6
rll2.0
July
August
September.
rill!5
October . .
November
December
111. 6
7.8
r-0.4
-2.0
5.6
•••
-2.6
April
May.
June
770.Index
(1967=100)
Revised2
2
January . .
February .
March . . .
Output per man-hour, total
private economy
Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries®
-2.7
7.2
•••
•••
-1.7
r-1.7
115 .'8
115 !i
p6.9
P5.9
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
5.3
(1967=100)
Revised2
Revised8
ri.'8
rO.6
113.7
-2.6
113.6
-2.1
113 .i
•••
-1.3
•••
6.3
5.6
770c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans'
-2.1
6.7
6.1
770c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm
0.8
115.0
1974
January . .
February .
March . .
-3.1
110.1
-0.1
April
May.
June
rllO.l
July
August
September.
rlO9.2
October..
November
December
rp9.2
p7.5
-2.1
-3-2
-2.0
-7.6
111.6
112.7
r-2.0
pll.9
p-i.i
0.1
112.8
-1.9
P7.9
112.2
rpU-6
p8.7
iio!s
-1.8
110.3
-5.1
109.4
1975
January .
February
March . . ,
pl.O
P13.0
P7.5
-0.2
110.7
111.7
April
May.
June
July
August
September.
October..
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised: "p". preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
^•Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter
changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
BCII MAY 1975
93
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month
841. Total
(Thous.)
842.
Employed
(Thous.)
Unemployment rates
843. Unemployed
844. Males
20 years and
over
(Thous.)
(Percent)
845. Females
20 years and
over
(Percent)
846. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age
(Percent)
847.
White
848. Negro
and other races
(Percent)
(Percent)
1973
January
February
March
86,96A
87,703
88,043
82,633
83,276
83,686
4,331
4,427
4,357
3.4
3.4
3.4
5.2
4-9
4.9
14.3
15.4
14.2
4.5
4.5
4.4
8.8
9.0
8.9
April
May
June
88,296
88,325
88,791
83,877
84,021
84,4.87
4,419
4,304
4,304
3.3
3.3
3.2
4.8
4.6
4.9
15.3
15.0
U.O
4.4
4.4
4.3
9.3
9.1
8.9
July
August
September..
88,902
88,816
89,223
84,679
84,582
84,983
4,223
4,234
4,240
4.8
4.9
4.8
14.3
14.3
14.3
4.2
4.2
4.2
9.2
8.9
9.3
October
November . .
December . .
89,568
89,852
90,0^8
85,452
85,577
85,646
4,116
4,275
4,402
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0
3.1
3.2
4.5
4.7
5.0
14.1
14.6
14.4
4.1
4.2
4.4
8.4
8.8
8.4
January
February
March
90,4.65
90,551
90,381
85,800
85,861
85,779
4,665
4,690
4,602
3.4
3.5
3.4
5.1
5.1
5.0
15.5
15.0
15.0
4.7
4.6
4.6
9.2
9.2
9.2
April
May
June
90,324
90,753
90,857
85,787
86,062
86,088
4,537
4,691
4,769
3.5
3-4
3.5
5.0
5.1
5.1
14.0
15.6
15.8
4.5
4.7
4.8
8.8
9.3
9.0
July
August
September..
91,283
91,199
91,705
86,403
86,274
86,402
4,880
4,925
5,303
3.6
3.8
3.9
5.2
5.3
5.7
16.2
15.3
16.7
4.8
4.9
5.3
9.4
9.4
9.9
October
November . .
December . .
91,844
91,708
91,803
86,304
85,689
85,202
5,540
6,019
6,601
4.3
4.6
5.3
5.6
6.6
7.2
17.1
17.4
18.1
5.5
5.9
6.4
10.9
11.6
12.5
January
February . . .
March
92,091
91,511
91,829
84,562
84,027
83,849
7,529
7,484
7,980
6.0
6.2
6.8
8.1
8.1
8.5
20.8
19.9
20.6
7.5
7.4
8.0
13.4
13-5
14-2
April
May
June
92,262
84,086
8,176
7.0
8.6
20.4
8.1
14-6
1974
1975
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification onlymd
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 60.
94
MAY 1975
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Q | ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
Year
and
quarter
Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
207. GNP gap (potential less actual)
206. Potential GNP
205. Actual GNP
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
786.6
798.1
814.2
806.8
814.7
822.8
830.9
+35.9
+28.1
+24.7
+16.7
832.8
837.-1
840.8
845.7
839.1
847.3
855.7
864.1
+6.3
+9.9
+14.9
+18.4
830.5
827.1
823.1
804.0
872.6
881.2
889.9
898.7
+42.1
+54.1
+66.8
+94.7
r780.2
907.6
r+127.4
770.9
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 61.
Special Note on Potential GNP
The following note has been provided by the Council of Economic
Advisers regarding potential GNP.
The idea of potential GNP has had a long history. Its measurement by
the Council of Economic Advisers was started in the Economic Report of
the Council in 1962. Since that time, it has been used as a standard with
which to evaluate the past and future behavior of the economy.
Potential GNP purports to measure what the economy would produce
if all of its resources were fully utilized given the technology and
institutional arrangements that have existed at the time. "Fully utilized" has
never meant the kind of utilization that would prevail, say, under wartime
conditions but rather the utilization that could be expected under conditions
of reasonable price stability. This has always been less than complete
utilization. Under ordinary circumstances, some unemployment is present
because some workers are in the process of changing jobs; similarly, some old
plants are idle because market conditions do not permit them to operate
profitably. In the past, this degree of utilization has been reflected in an
overall unemployment rate of 4 percent. The rate of inflation associated
with that degree of unemployment has typically not been specified.
Furthermore, notions of what constitutes reasonable price stability can vary
over time.
Potential GNP is not something ordinarily observable. In practice, the
ltd* MAY 1975
Council in 1962 made the judgment that the economy was operating at 100
percent of potential in mid-1955. Since that time potential GNP has been
estimated to grow at differing annual rates, as follows: 3.5 percent from the
first quarter of 1952 to the fourth quarter of 1962, 3.75 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1962 to the fourth quarter of 1965, 4 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1965 to the fourth quarter of 1969. At the beginning of
1970, the Council estimated that after the fourth quarter of 1969 potential
was growing at an annual rate of 4.3 percent, reflecting a rise of 1.8 percent
in the potential labor force, a 0.2 percent decline in annual hours of work,
and a 2.7 percent rise in output per manhour at potential. Drawing on a new
study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("The United States Economy in
1985", Monthly Labor Review, December 1973), the Council has lowered its
estimate of potential growth after 1969 to 4 percent per annum, reflecting
the following component changes: labor force, 1.8 percent; ahnual hours,
- 0 . 3 percent; output per manhour, 2.5 percent.
Although potential is presented in the chart on page 61 and the table
above as a point estimate each quarter, it is clearly subject to a margin of
error and consequently, as with any measure of capacity, should be used
with considerable caution. There are uncertainties regarding both the growth
and the level of potential. It cannot be reasonably assumed that potential
grows in each year or quarter at the same annual rate. Some qualifications
about the measure of potential appear on pages 64-65 of the 1974 Economic
Report.
95
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
Year
and
month
850. Ratio,
output to capacity,
manufacturing
851. Ratio,
inventories to sales,
manufacturing
and trade
852. Ratio, manufacturers' unfilled
orders to shipments,
durable goods
industries
853. Ratio,
production of
business equipment
to consumer goods
(Percent)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
(1967=100)
854. Ratio,
personal saving
to disposable
personal income
(Ratio)
860. Ratio,
help-wanted
advertising
to persons
unemployed
(Ratio)
857. Vacancy rate
in total rental
housing ®
(Percent)
1973
January
February
March
p82.8
1.46
1.46
1.45
2.59
2.61
2.67
90.1
90.8
90.7
0.075
0.839
0.800
0.827
5.7
April
May
June
p83.3
1.46
1.46
1.48
2.73
2.79
2.89
91.4
92.0
92.9
0.078
0.815
0.844
0.851
5.8
July
August
September...
p83.3
1.45
1.46
1.47
89
01
,06
92.6
95.0
95.1
0.080
0.923
0.886
0.843
5.8
October
November . . .
December . . .
p82.6
1.45
1.44
1.49
,00
,04
0.095
0.890
O.836
0.771
5.8
3.14
95.2
95.7
96.6
O.C
0.708
0.686
0.718
6.2
0.074
0.761
0.730
0.724
6.3
0.066
0.726
0.695
0.578
6.2
1974
January
February
March
p80.5
1.47
1.47
1.46
3.13
3.16
3.15
98.1
99.2
99.3
April
May
June
p8o!i
1.46
1.47
1.50
3.21
3.22
3.30
99.5
100.4
100.0
July
August
September...
1.47
1.48
1.51
3.38
3.44
3.45
101.0
p79.4
October
November . . .
December . .
p75.7
1.54
1.59
1.68
3.30
3.38
3-57
103.0
103.7
103.0
0.086
0.505
0.425
0.356
6.0
p68.3
1.68
1.66
pi. 69
3.50
r3.44
3.4S
(N4)
rlOl.8
rlOO.4
rO.O75
0.289
0.282
0.261
6.1
99.2
102.7
1975
January
February
March
April
May
(1ft)
r99.2
P96.9
pO.259
June
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 62.
96
MAY 1975
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
Dt. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
1-month
span
9-month
span
06. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
(35 industries)
1-month
span
9-month
span
D11. Newly approved
capital appropriations^
The Conference Board
(17 industries)
1-quarter
span
3-quarter
span
D34. Profits,
mfg., FNCB
(about 1,000
corporations)
1-quarter
span
D19. Index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks
(65-71 industries) 2 ®
1-month
span
9-month
span
D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
span
9-month
span
1973
January
February
March
35.7
95.2
59.5
50.0
28.6
33.3
65.7
61.4
77.1
90.0
85.7
91.4
82
April
May
June
50.0
23.6
19.0
26.2
61.9
71.4
61.4
54.3
48.6
82.9
88.6
85.7
July
August
September..
57.1
28.6
83.3
33.3
19.0
21.4
48.6
48.6
52.9
October
November . .
December . .
16.7
54.8
50.0
16.7
16.7
9.5
January
February . . .
March
21.4
50.0
42.9
April
May
June
7.1
92.9
57.1
28.6
11.9
7.1
7.1
0.0
19.0
July
August
September..
H.3
50.0
35.7
October
November . .
December . .
40.5
11.9
28.6
14.5
19.6
26.8
26.5
19.1
25.0
84.6
84.6
76.9
92.3
92.3
92.3
61
21.7
14.7
15.4
19.1
17.6
30.9
61.5
80.8
76.9
92.3
92.3
92.3
82
55
66.2
41.9
88.2
23.9
16.4
26.9
73.1
65.4
46.2
92.3
69.2
76.9
59
60
89.0
7.5
13.4
35.8
53.7
35.8
46.2
69.2
69.2
100.0
84.6
76.9
59
85.8
50.7
91.0
28.8
10.6
6.1
84.6
69.2
53.8
69.2
76.9
6I.5
65
58
9.7
27.3
39.4
6.1
10.6
4.6
61.5
38.5
53.8
61.5
46.2
46.2
59
P41
58
4.5
7.6
1.5
38.5
46.2
42.3
46.2
23.1
23.1
P24
(NA)
r40
66.2
70.8
9.2
4.6
3.1
10.8
23.1
38.5
70.8
19.2
23.1
7.7
23.1
23.1
23.1
48
95.4
93.8
86.2
94
62
53
76
82.9
62.9
68.6
59
65.7
55.7
34.3
82.9
74.3
68.6
59
65.7
57.1
57.1
82.9
85.7
71.4
47
53
57.1
65.7
47.1
74.3
68.6
60.0
59
9.5
0.0
47.6
60.0
45.7
40.0
45.7
14.3
14.3
0.0
4.8
P7.1
45.7
18.6
17.1
11.4
5.7
pl2.9
1974
1975
January
February . . .
March
16.7
rl6.7
r42.9
48.6
51.4
34-3
April
May
June
p69.0
p82.9
(NA)
69.2
53.8
42.3
38.5
a
3
19.2
46.2
46.2
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on 2d
month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index 019 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table E4 identifies the components
for most of the indexes shown. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; and " N A " , not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®
Graphs of these series are shown an page 63.
1
Thls is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board.
2
Based on 71 components in January 1973, on 69 components through April 1973, on 68 components through October 1973,
on 67 components through April 1974, on 66 components through September 1974, and on 65 components thereafter. Component
data are not shown in table E4 but are available from the source agency.
3
Average for May b, 13, and 20.
ItCII
MAY 1975
97
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
^ H O I F F U S I O N INDEXES-Con.
Leading Indicators-Con.
Year
and
month
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas)1
1-month
span
9-month
span
Roughly Coincident Indicators
D41. Number of employees
on nonagriculural payrolls
(30 industries)
D47. Index of industrial
production (24 industries)
D58. Index of wholesale
prices (22 manufacturing
industries)®
1-month
span
6-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
054. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month
span
9-month
span
1973
67.0
74.5
3.6.2
68.1
66.0
74.5
70.0
86.7
83.3
86.7
81.7
85.0
79.2
91.7
62.5
83.3
79.2
83.3
95.5
97.7
95.5
100.0
95.5
95.5
87.0
76.1
65.2
100.0
97.8
95.7
53.2
36.2
57.4
38.3
68.1
57.4
70.0
65.0
81.7
83.3
78.3
68.3
50.0
77.1
54.2
79.2
77.1
79.2
95.5
90.9
84.I
95.5
95.5
95.5
30.4
69.6
56.5
100.0
100.0
87.0
63.8
46.8
44.7
57.4
8.5
8.5
68.3
70.0
51.7
80.0
86.7
85.0
70.8
70.8
62.5
79.2
70.8
54.2
75.0
91.0
77.3
90.9
95.5
95.5
73.9
34.8
73.9
69.6
46.8
72.3
2.1
38.3
29.8
23.4
86.7
75.0
60.0
88.3
71.7
68.3
45.8
62.5
45.8
45.8
35.4
45.8
79.5
86.4
90.9
95.5
90.9
90.9
65.2
56.5
43.5
87.0
95.7
87.0
53.2
83.0
40.4
19.1
U.9
34.0
48.3
48.3
51.7
56.7
53.3
50.0
35.4
37.5
64.6
39.6
33.3
52.1
90.9
95.5
88.6
95.5
95.5
95.5
78.3
60.9
78.3
91.3
78.3
95.7
April
May
June
51.1
56.4
34.0
12.8
55.3
44.7
48.3
56.7
51.7
45.0
43.3
46.7
47.9
70.8
50.0
54.2
41.7
41.7
91.0
84.I
81.8
95.5
90.9
90.9
47.8
65.2
34.8
91.3
87.0
82.6
July
0.0
September
75.5
48.9
28.7
6.4
8.5
51.7
56.7
48.3
45.0
36.7
20.0
39.6
37.5
52.1
31.3
12.5
10.4
81.8
77.3
68.2
77.3
72.7
72.7
95.7
52.2
60.9
52.2
45.7
65.2
October
November
December
46.8
8.5
53.2
41.7
13.3
15.0
20.0
16.7
rl3.3
33.3
20.8
8.3
ri.2.5
ri.6.7
72.7
68.2
65.9
72.7
68.2
68.2
43.5
21.7
52.2
r82.6
r65.2
55.3
29.8
55.3
13.3
rl3.3
rl6.7
plO.O
ri.6.7
r22.9
rl6.7
p8.3
63.6
63.6
59.1
68.2
73.9
r67.4
r39.1
44.7
P36.7
February
March
April
May
June
...
July
August
September
October
November
December
. .
47.8
91.3
1974
January
February
March
.
. .
2.1
4.3
2.1
r20.8
p65.2
1975
March
April
May
June
p50.0
70.5
P73.9
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d
month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index 058 which requires
no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by @.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
Component data are not available for publication and therefore are not shown in table E4-.
MAY 1975
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change
1975
1974
Diffusion index components
October
September
November
January
December
March1"
February
April P
D1. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(Average weekly hours)
All manufacturing industries
Percent rising of 21 components
38.8
39.0
(17)
(43)
(69)
r41.2
r38.6
r36.3
41.2
37.7
36.4
41.5
37.9
37.1
40.5
r40.2
40.2
39.4
39.8
40.6
39.2
-
40.4
41-8
39.7
r41.2
39.7
41.0
39.7
39.5
39.5
o
39.4
39.5
39.0
r39.1
39.1
39.0
39.2
40.1
39.8
38.1
o
39.5
38.1
r38.9
r37.6
39.0
37.7
39.4
38.3
40.0
37.7
-
39.9
37.3
39.9
37.6
40.4
39.1
40.0
40.1
39.5
39.4
39.2
38.8
(36)
(40)
(12)
(29)
(17)
38.9
38.6
41.4
41.9
38.5
37.7
-
41.8
38.1
37.3
+
-
42.1
37.9
-
36.4
41.4
42.2
41-2
41.7
-
41.0
41-1
-
40.9
-
+
-
40.6
42.1
o
Durable goods industries:
-
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
41.5
39.2
38.8
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
41-3
42.1
Fabricated metal products..
Machinery, except electrical
41.2
42.7
-
41.0
42.4
40.4
42.3
Electrical equipment and supplies
Transportation equipment
39.8
40.2
+
39.7
40.6
39.4
39.5
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries.
40.1
38.6
-
39.9
38.4
39.9
38.0
-
+
a.3
Nondurable goods industries:
-
40.0
38.7
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
40.3
38.5
40.3
37.0
40.0
37.4
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
39.2
35.3
38.3
35.4
37.6
34-4
-
36.6
34.2
-
36.0
34.0
+
-
36.1
33.6
36.7
33.6
37.7
34-4
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing . .
41.9
37.6
41.7
37.7
41.3
37.4
-
41.2
37.3
+
41.1
37.5
-
r40.5
37.2
40.5
36.9
40.9
36.8
Chemicals and allied products .
Petroleum and coal products .
41.5
42.2
41.4
42.6
a.2
42.2
+
41.0
42.3
-
40.6
42.0
-
40.5
r41.9
40.4
a.8
40.2
40.3
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c.
Leather and leather products
40.5
36.7
40.8
37.0
39.8
36.6
-
39.5
36.1
o
39.5
-
35.7
-
r38.7
r35.3
38.5
35.0
39.3
36.3
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS'NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
- 46,402
- 45,084
- 43,182
- 37,842
- 36,062
+ 37,023
- 35,492
+ 38,977
(46)
(19)
(17)
(49)
(51)
(34)
(83)
(40)
Percent rising of 35 components
2
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products.
+
8,611
5,871
-
8,378
5,555
-
7,863
5,226
-
6,297
4,387
- 5,071
+ 4,720
+ 5,378
+ 4,784
-
4,961
4,449
+ 5,423
+ 4,703
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
-
8,120
5,149
+
8,001
5,192
-
7,559
4,926
-
7,426
4,439
- 6,837
+ 4,919
- 6,805
+ 4,931
-
6,759
4,662
+
+
7,037
5,268
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries
- 10,623
- 8,028
- 10,012
- 7,946
-
9,775
7,833
-
8,050
7,243
- 7,253
+ 7,262
+
-
-
7,705
6,956
+
+
8,802
7,744
8,030
7,095
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (0) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The " r " indicates revised;
" p " , preliminary; and " N A " , not available.
•••Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are all included in the
totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here.
ItCII
MAY 1975
99
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1974
1975
Diffusion index components
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
May 1
April
023. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES2
Industrial materials price index (1967=100)
- 214.7
-
204.4 -
196.4
- 183.4 - 180.1 + 181.1
+
182.3
+
186.4
- 185.4
(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components
Copper scrap
Lead scrap
Steel scrap
Tin
Zinc
Burlap
Cotton, 12-market average
Print cloth, average
Wool tops
Hides
Rosin
Rubber
Tallow
(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(U.S. ton).
(metric ton).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(yard).
(meter).
(42)
(19)
0.495 1.091
0.480 1.058
(23)
0.469
1.034
-
- 0.115 - 0.112 - 0.106
0.247
0.254
0.234
- 116.959 - 115.230 - 112.821
127.018 124.363
128.924
-
-
4.198 9.255
0.387 +
0.853
0.280 o
0.306
0.497
1.096
0.584
0.639
2.495
5.500
0.248
0.547
42.882
94.538
0.329
0.725
0.L42
0.313
(pound).
(kilogram).
(yard).
(meter).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(100 pounds).
(100 kilograms).
(pound).
(kilogram).
(pound).
(kilogram).
+
3.664 +
8.078
0.390
0.860
0.280
0.306
0.475
1.047
0.596
0.652
- 2.152
4.744
-
0.207
0.456
42.778
94.308
0.314
0.692
- 0.141
0.311
3.681
8.115
0.393
0.866
0.260
0.284
0.450
0.992
0.586
0.641
2.092
4.612
0.197
0.434
42.056
92.717
0.279
0.615
0.146
0.322
(54)
(8)
-
-
0.431
0.950
0.098
0.216
86.762
95.638
3.508
7.734
0.391
0.862
0.235
0.257
+
+
+
+
- 0.413
0.910
-
-
+
-
0.576
0.630
2.088
4.603
-
0.397
0.875
0.099
0.218
75.758
83.508
3.700
8.157
0.394
0.869
0.236
0.258
0.388
0.855
0.579
0.633
1.967
4.336
(42)
+
- 0.091
0.201
0 75.744
83-493
3.723
8.208
0.391
•0.862
+ 0.239
0.261
+
+
-
- 0.186 - 0.175
0.410
0.386
-
- 41-438
91.354
-
+ 42.181
92.992
0.288
0.635
+ 0.307
0.677
- 0.117 + 0.123
0.258
0.271
0.399
0.880
+
-
(46)
(38)
+
0.400
0.882
0.086
0.190
- 72.206
79.593
- 3.514
7.747
-
0.379
0.836
0.227
O.248
0.401
0.884
0.577
0.631
1.802
3.973
0.166
0.366
42.097
92.807
0.294
O.648
0.119
0.262
+ 0.406
-
0.399
0.880
0.081
0.179
+ 84.830
93-508
3-382
7.456
0.376
0.829
- 0.210
0.230
0.381
0.840
0.073
0.161
77.788
85.746
3-295
7.264
0.378
0.833
0.199
0.218
O.424
0.935
0.590
0.645
1.849
4-076
0.435
0.959
0.581
0.635
2.143
4-724
0.255
0.562
- 41.782
92.113
0.287
0.633
0.108
0.238
- 40.972
90.327
+ 0.291
0.642
+ 0.116
0.256
a-918
+
+
0.895
0.583
0.638
1.860
+
(46)
+
-
4-101
+ 0.201 + 0.227
0.500
0.443
92.412
0.274
0.604
0.124
0.273
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS3
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls
78,865
78,404
- 77,690
77,227
-r76,708
•r76,346
- 76,293
(48)
(42)
(13)
(15)
(13)
(13)
(17)
(37)
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products . .
Miscellaneous manufacturing
86
532
433
548
1,082
1,144
1,500
1,368
1,277
331
350
85
491
404
531
1,068
1,103
1,494
1,299
1,249
324
332
+
514
421
541
1,084
1,128
1,508
1,354
1,285
329
343
86
481
390
516
- 1,035
- 1,059
- 1,467
- 1,242
- 1,176
318
316
85
463
371
499
1,011
1,011
1,440
1,208
1,126
314
310
o
-
r85
r449
r36O
r486
r969
992
rl,404
rl,152
r1,060
305
305
r85
r449
r356
r478
r941
r976
rl,380
rl,137
rl,102
r297
r301
84
448
353
476
920
967
- 1,342
- 1,129
- 1,099
o
297
o
301
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products .
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c..
Leather and leather products
1,180
61
876
1,152
547
1,174
64
850
1,136
536
667
625
124
542
237
1,160
62
827
1,112
528
658
617
124
517
237
- 1,150
+
63
797
- 1,059
516
656
602
123
493
231
1,132
66
760
1,032
504
654
589
117
477
223
- rl,125
65
r740
- 1,009
r489
r645
r580
114
446
r2l6
ri,123
r63
r738
r994
477
r639
r568
rll9
r435
r213
+ 1,127
62
+
750
+ 1,012
470
635
565
o
119
o
435
o
213
Percent rising of 30 components
+
78,844 +
626
123
544
242
-
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (0) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The " r " indicates revised;
" p " , preliminary; and " N A", not available.
1
Average for week of May 6, 13,, and 20.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The industrial materials price index is not
seasonally adjusted. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
2
100
MAY 1975
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1974
1975
Diffusion index components
September
October
November
December
February
January
r
March ]
AprilP
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS-Con. 1
(Thousands of employees)
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance,insurance,real estate . . .
Service
Federal Government
State and local government
692
3,911
4,699
4,287
12,873
4,185
13,705
2,748
11,783
682
3,939
4,679
4,275
12,891
4,176
13,647
2,747
11,696
700
3,789
4,607
4,242
12,621
4,173
13,747
2,733
11,897
662
3,798
4,668
4,267
12,645
4,182
13,734
2,738
11,850
693
3,861
4,697
4,283
12,765
4,183
13,721
2,746
11,822
+
r702
- r3,596
- r4,56l
- r4,222
- rl2,6lO
r4,l64
+ rl3,771
o
2,733
+ rl2,052
700
3,462
4,499
4,207
12,587
4,164
13,773
2,734
12,109
+
r706
- r3,478
- r4,511
- r4,207
- rl2,58l
- r4,156
- rl3,752
- r2,732
+ 12,069
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1
(1967=100)
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components2 ,
Durable manufactures:
Primary and fabricated metals . . .
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and allied goods
Nonelectrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments
Lumber, clay, and glass
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous manufactures...
Nondurable manufactures:
Textiles, apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products..
Foods and tobacco
Foods
Tobacco products
Mining:
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Metal, stone, and earth minerals ,
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals . . .
+
125.6
(52)
124.8
121.7
(33)
111.2
109.8
(17)
(23)
(17)
(50)
117.4
113.7
(21)
(8)
-
-
-
109.4
123.0
132.0
+
-
126.0
129.6
121.0
128.2
108.6
124.1
ri.07.2
rll8.2
102.0
113.2
97.9
111.2
94.0
111.3
137.8
126.4
100.4
144.9
+
-
137.4
124.0
102.1
142.0
135.1
121.7
93.7
142.3
132.5
H6.3
83.6
139.5
rl26.7
rill.5
r78.9
ri.39.1
123.1
107.9
77.1
134.7
120.1
105.5
77.6
132.8
123.0
116.6
-
122.9
109.3
IIS'.S
105.2
116.9
101.3
rll5.3
r99.9
109.2
99.4
107.6
97.5
129.4
147.5
-
125.5
146.9
120.5
136.9
120.4
135.7
rllO.6
rl28.9
109^6
127.0
108.4
125.5
118.5
105.4
81.9
133.0
105.1
(NA)
(NA)
117.9
(NA)
(NA)
121.9
102.5
74.2
119.1
102.8
70.6
112.8
100.1
74.7
102.9
98.0
69.7
r95.6
r94.0
r66.1
94-0
90.9
73.9
95.0
(NA)
73.3
135.3
114-4
133.9
111.9
-
110.0
116.1
109.8
rll4.3
ri.04.1
109.5
104.7
108.3
104.0
133" 5
122.4
130.9
120.6
121.5
(NA)
158.3
121.9
168.6
+
-
125-4
161.8
+
-
148 '.3
127.0
155.7
125.7
106.0
+
122.4
110.3
+
-
125.4
103.8
112.1
107.1
+
110.3
107.4
-
141.4
107.5
+
13Cl! 5
105.0
-
125.8
148.9
+
-
rl26.8
rl35.4
134^5
124.1
131.8
+
125.7
96.2
+
rl21.2
104.7
122.7
108.4
67.6
106.4
85.3
103.6
+
-
rill.3
rlO2.9
116.5
102.9
+
115.1
103.1
136'.8
109.8
134.*7
IO6.4
- ri.33.8
+ ri.09.0
131 '.1
106.5
+
-
135'.2
106.1
91.2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
103.9
(NA)
101.7
131.1
132.9
122.0
(NA)
120.7
121.6
(NA)
112.0
103.7
110.7
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling. The " r " indicates revised;
" p " , preliminary; and " N A " , not available.
•"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
ItO
MAY 1975
101
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1974
1975
Diffusion index components
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
054. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Millions of dollars)
-
All retail sales
Percent rising of 23 components2
46,177 (61)
+
+
+
Grocery stores
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise)
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel, accessory stores
Shoe stores
+
9,626
3,530
4,737
514
745
495
824
318
+
+
9,698 + 9,740
3,623 + 3,715
-
4,712 513
+
+
+
+
+
1,335 676
1,514 +
444
Passenger car and other automotive dealers
+
+
+
+
7,477
716
3,503
1,415
888
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores
D58.
All manufacturing industries
Percent rising of 22 components
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and household durables .
Nonmetallic minerals products . . .
I ron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment.
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products.
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and plastic products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products.
+
+
+
+ 44,821 + 45,955
(22)
(44)
Furniture, home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
Tire, battery, accessory dealers
45,803 - 44,469
(52)
(74)
+
9,610
3,721
-
4,608
9,945
3,784
4,497
499
415
485
753
477
817
321
732
450
766
307
684
444
1,282 638 1,517 440,
1,240
629
1,465
6,814
700
3,507
1,429
891
-
6,254
665
-
1,402
-
4,627
427
3,397
884
r46,8l9 - r45,937 + 46,584
(67)
(39)
(74)
r9,925 + 10,162
r3,828 - 3,798
r4,743 + 4,878
455
r489
737
r746
514
r5l8
820
r828
312
r344
+
800
303
720
473
844
323
+
1,193
617
1,412
431
1,237
625
1,424
471
rl,235
r633
rl,415
r477
+
+
+
+
+
6,668
690
3,399
1,461
886
6,971
725
3,465
1,436
871
r7,580
r745
r3,465
rl,449
r882
6,561
747
3,432
1,497
166.9
(66)
168.2
(64)
168.0
(64)
167.8
(59)
165.4
137.7
164.3
196.7
181.8
182.9
176.7
170.9
153.1
136.5
140.7
142.4
164.7
138.8
168.5
199.4
178.8
185.4
178.3
172.6
158.1
138.1
140.2
145.5
169.3
139.1
170.3
200.5
176.1
189.4
178.7
173.9
158.6
138.7
141.5
146.4
169.6
138.5
170.8
200.6
173.9
189.9
180.0
174.8
158.5
139.1
143.0
146.8
188.2
165.7
107.3
132.3
133.7
167.2
174.0
238.5
149.4
143.2
186.4
162.0
103.8
130.7
133.8
169.8
"176.0
242.3
149.6
142.1
182.6
158.0
103.8
129.3
133.6
169.8
178.1
240.7
150.0
141.7
177.3
156.0
102.0
121.7
133.3
170.0
181.8
242.3
149.7
143.2
+
+
1,208
655
1,345
488
908
INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 3
(1967=100)
162.4
(68)
165.2
(73)
+ 166.2
(68)
180.4
132.8
159.8
198.1
197.0
179.9
170.9
161.8
145.0
130.4
130.6
136.3
169.4
135.5
162.2
199.0
190.8
182.0
174.1
166.1
149.5
132.4
138.1
137.1
- 165.8
+ 136.9
+ 163.4
+ 199.7
- 187.2
+ 182.5
+ 175.6
+ 168.9
+ 152.7
+ 135.4
+ 138.9
+ 140.7
176.8
179.3
116.5
137.7
133.0
164.2
161.7
243.0
145.6
148.1 -
183.5
173.4
112.
135.
133.
166,
168,
244
147
145.2
189.7
170.8
107.3
134-2
133.6
166.9
172.9
238.2
148.5
144-5
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
o
+
+
-
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (0) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The " r " indicates revised;
, preliminary; and " N A " , not available.
*Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
2
The
3
102
MAY 1975
ItO
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
I CONSUMER PRICES
135. West
Germany,
index of
consumer
prices®
136. France,
index of
consumer
prices®
138. Japan,
index of
consumer
prices®
137. Italy,
index of
consumer
prices®
47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production
123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production
122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production
126. France,
ndex of
industrial
production
prices®
133. Canada, 132. United
Kingdom,
index of
index of
consumer
consumer
prices®
prices®
1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
128
129
130
125
126
126
144
144
145
126
127
128
136
136
137
138
140
143
127
128
130
122
123
124
139
142
142
120
123
124
150
151
128
129
130
148
June
131
132
132
150
129
129
130
138
139
140
145
148
148
131
133
134
124
125
126
142
142
144
121
121
122
144
153
151
July
August
September...
133
135
136
131
133
133
151
151
152
130
130
131
141
142
143
150
151
155
135
136
137
127
126
127
143
139
142
123
123
123
153
153
150
October
November . . .
December . . .
137
138
138
134
135
136
155
157
158
132
133
134
145
146
147
154
156
160
138
139
141
127
128
126
,,
146
146
125
123
119
153
154
January
February
March
140
142
137
138
139
161
163
165
135
137
137
150
152
153
167
173
174
144
147
149
125
125
125
148
149
150
113
115
119
157
rl57
153
April
May
June
144
146
140
143
144
170
173
175
138
139
139
156
158
159
179
179
181
151
154
157
125
126
126
US
U7
121
121
122
155
157
157
150
152
146
147
148
176
176
177
139
140
140
161
163
165
I84
185
189
160
163
168
126
125
126
124
123
121
160
160
152
153
154
155
149
151
152
182
185
188
141
142
142
167
168
169
193
194
195
171
174
176
125
122
117
U6
U6
U5
U5
U3
U2
121
121
115
152
147
January
February
March
156
157
158
153
154
155
192
196
200
144
144
171
173
174
196
196
198
178
rl81
181
114
111
139
UO
rll9
pll9
(NA)
144
pU4
(NA)
April
May
159
156
(HI)
(NA)
203
(NA)
Year
and
month
781. United
States,
index of
consumer
(1967=100)
1973
January
February
March
April
May
H9
U6
US
1974
U3
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
U7
US
147
U3
1975
145
(NA)
110
pl39
plO9
(NA)
June
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.
MAY 1975
103
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
STOCK PRICES
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION-Con.
19. United
143. Canada,
index of
stock
prices©
142. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices©
146. France,
index of
stock
prices©
145. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices®
148.Japan,
index of
stock
prices©
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
147. Italy,
index of
stock
prices©
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production
121.0ECD,'
European
countries,
index of
industrial
production
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
January
February
March
150
156
151
186
186
193
142
144
142
124
123
123
129
124
122
146
145
143
182
168
I64
174
173
185
167
165
173
387
364
363
83
84
93
April
May
June
153
152
154
190
196
197
142
144
145
132
134
138
120
117
114
142
135
135
168
167
171
191
196
190
174
161
157
344
339
338
97
109
125
July
August
September...
147
154
156
197
200
201
144
146
147
141
131
139
115
113
115
141
144
146
161
156
154
183
179
180
146
144
140
355
351
333
118
105
107
October
November . . .
Oecember . . .
155
156
156
205
207
203
148
148
146
141
139
138
119
111
103
153
148
134
159
151
126
183
166
166
141
135
126
325
313
285
109
108
97
January
February
March
154
rl53
rl52
202
202
199
147
147
147
148
143
144
104
102
106
139
141
146
126
124
116
173
167
153
131
129
126
293
308
304
106
108
112
April
May
June
rl52
rl52
rl53
196
200
193
rl48
rl4S
150
150
146
149
101
98
98
136
123
122
112
112
103
145
134
134
128
125
120
305
303
306
116
106
97
July
August
September..
rl5O
rl49
151
194
188
188
148
rl46
147
rl46
rl3O
145
90
83
74
118
113
101
r94
82
74
135
125
106
113
113
107
295
270
261
90
88
76
October
November . .
Oecember . .
rl47
rl5O
143
185
182
173
145
143
137
135
127
122
76
78
73
101
97
93
71
65
58
114
113
117
104
106
110
239
245
255
74
79
72
14-0
P140
(HA)
166
pi..65
N4)
(H
rl38
P140
pl3O
79
87
91
103
109
rplOS
69
99
109
177
134
144
pll6
P124
P134
250
271
284
72
80
82
92
rplO9
pllO
115
Pl24
rpl47
P149
pl40
pl38
290
P297
rp80
p78
Year
and
month
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
States,
index of
stock
prices, 500
common
stocks©
(1967=100)
1973
1974
1975
January
February . . .
March
(NO
(NO
April
May
June
July
August
September..
October
November . .
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and
" N A " , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 67 and 68.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
104
MAY 1975
IICII
APPENDIXES
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Composite Indexes
(NOV.) (OCT.)
P
T
III \\\ III
(JULY) (AUG.)
P
T
(JULY)(APR.(
P
T
in II1 114 HI III III ri; i l l
(NOV.) (NOV.)
(MAY)(FEB.)
P
T
11
\u
P
T
III 111 111 II1 II1 III III III III JH II 1 II 1 II
III III
Index: 1967=100
r"\
Old Indexes of 12 Leading Indicators
(series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17,
19, 23, 29, 31, 113)
Ratio
Scale
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
810. Reverse trend adjusted1
70
60
S""^/
140
130
120
110
100
90
wv'
811. Prior to trend adjustment
V/
80
70
111 tut 11111111111111 ni \t 11111111111 U H 111111 [ it i i i 1111111111111111111111111111111111 Ut i\ 1111111111111111111
1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Series 810: 1973- 155.9
1974167.8
1975- rl52.9
158.8
170.2
rl53-2
161.3
172.3
151.5
159.7
173.0
8
157.8
162.9
175.6
June
July
164.3
165.6
176.1 0)179.6
Aug.
167.3
rl78.0
Sep.
165.1
rl72.2
Oct.
166.8
rl68.5
Nov.
168.1
rl62.5
Deo.
165.6
rl59.O
Series 811: 1973- 121.5
1974125.1
1975- rlO8.9
123-3
126.3
rlO8.7
124.8
127.5
107.2
123.1
127.4
2
111.2
125.1
128.9
125.7
126.2
128.8 D13O.9
127.0
rl29.2
124.9
ri.24.5
125.7
rl21.4
126.2
rij.6.7
123.9
rll3.7
Jan.
May
Current high values are indicated by [H>; "r" indicates revised.
Reverse trend adjusted index contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators (series 820).
Excludes series 16, 31, and 113 for which data are not yet available.
1
8
105
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series titles
:e complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Accession rate, manufacturing
Anticipations and intentions
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . .
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Capacity, manufacturers' adequacy
Consumer sentiment, index
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories, manufacturers', book value
Inventories, manufacturers', condition of
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Orders, new, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, selling, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, selling, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Prices, selling, retail trade, Dl
Prices, selling, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Sales, manufacturers'
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Automobiles
Expenditures, personal consumption, NIA
Gross auto product, constant dollars, NIA
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
'61
D61
416
435
D446
412
414
D450
0440
D462
0460
D466
D464
D442
410
D444
234
249
Historica
Series
data
descriptions
(issue dai
74
3/75
8/68
27,43,44
46
45
45
46
45
45
47
46
47
47
47
47
46
45
46
78,84
85
85
85
85
85
84
85
12/74
12/74
1/75
1/75
12/74
1/75
1/75
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
1A5
12/74
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11
18
70
72
9/74
9/74
10/69
S4
84
84
85
84
84
85
84
B
Balance of payments
Balances
Banking and other capital transactions, net
Current account
Current account and long-term capital
Goods and services
Goods, services and remittances
Government grants and capital transactions, net .
Liabilities, liquid
Liabilities, liquid and nonliquid
Liquidity, net
Merchandise trade
Reserve position, U.S. official
Reserve transactions balance
Exports
Goods and services
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Investment, foreign direct, in the U.S
Investment income, military sales and services . .
Merchandise, adjusted
Military sales to foreigners
Orders, new, manufacturers' durable goods
Orders, new, nonelectrical machinery
Securities, U.S., purchases by foreigners
Total, excluding military aid
Transportation and services, receipts
Travelers, foreign, receipts from
Imports
Goods and services
Income on foreign investment in the U.S
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services
Investments abroad, U.S. direct
Merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Military expenditures abroad, U.S
Securities, foreign, U.S. purchases
Total, general
Transportation and services, payments for
Travelers abroad, U.S., payments by
Bank loans to businesses, loans outstanding
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Bank rates - See Interest rates.
Banking and other capital transactions, net, BOP
Bonds - See Interest rates.
Borrowing • See Credit.
Budget - See Government.
Building - See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, ratio to consumer goods
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl ,
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation
Business incorporations
Business inventories - See Inventories.
Business loans • See Bank loans.
Buying policy, production materials
Canada • See International comparisons.
Capacity, manufacturers', adequacy of
Capacity, ratio of output to
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, mfg., newly approved . .
Capital appropriations, newly approved, Dl . . .
Capital consumption allowances, NIA
Capital investment - See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, net, corporate, constant dollars . . . .
Cash flow, net, corporate, current dollars
53
49
49
250
49,51
515
570
530
532
521
500
49
53
50
50
49
48
50
49
88
87
87
87
87
88
87
87
87
86
87
87
542
560
540
536
546
506
508
564
502
548
544
51
52
53
51
51
52
48
48
53
48
52
52
87
88
88
87
87
88
86
86
88
86
88
88
7/74
1/75
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
4/74
5/74
7/74
1/75
1A5
7/74
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
8/68#
253
543
51
52
87
88
7/74
1A5
5/69
5/69
541
561
537
547
51
53
51
52
53
48
52
52
87
88
87
88
88
86
88
88
82
81
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
1/75
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
11/72
11/72
575
517
519
534
522
252
565
512
549
545
72
112
•29
853
"61
D61
14
•12
13
36,43
33
26,40
62
27,43,44
46
34
25,39
25
78
96
78,84
84
81
77
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
1/75
7/74
7/74
5/69
1/75
7/74
4/75
4/75
4/75
3/75
12/74
12/74
4/75
4/74
4/74
416
850
97
11
D11
296
45
62
27
26
63
17
1A5
8/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
10/74
814
35
34
38
31
31
5/74
8/74
8/74
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
4/69
11/68
11/68
11/68
10/69
1/72
1/72
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Civilian labor force, total
Coincident indicators, five, Cl
Coincident indicators, five, Cl, rate of change
Coincident indicators, five, deflated, Cl
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, net change .
Compensation
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
Compensation of employees, NIA
Compensation of employees, as percent of national
income, NIA
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, real spendable, average weekly
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction ..
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Five coinciders
Five coinciders, deflated
Five coinciders, rate of change
Lagging indicators, six
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Marginal employment adjustments
Profitability
Sensitive financial flows
Twelve leaders, original trend
Twelve leaders, reverse trend adjusted
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts, total value
Contracts awarded for commercial and indus. bldgs.
Expenditures, business, and machinery and
equipment sales
Housing starts
Residential structures, GPDI, constant dol., NIA
Residential structures, GPDI, current dollars, N I A . .
Consumer goods, ratio of business equipment to
Consumer installment debt
Consumer installment debt, net change
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices - See also International comparisons.
All items
All items, change in
Commodities less food
Food
Services
lonsumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures, personal • See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
lorporate profits - See Profits.
- See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Iredit
Bank loans to businesses, change in
Borrowing, total private
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Consumer installment debt
Consumer installment debt, net change
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Mortgage debt, change in
Current account, balance, BOP
Current account and bng-term capital, balance, BOP . . .
Defense
Contract awards, military prime
Military expenditures abroad, U.S., BOP
Military sales to foreigners, BOP
Obligations incurred, procurement
Obligations incurred, total
Orders, new, defense products
Orders, new, defense products industries
Purchases of goods and services, NIA
Deficit - See Government.
Deflators • See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Depreciation, NIA
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment .
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing
Series
lumber
841
820
820
825
'72
112
Current issue
(page nurnbers)
60
37
65
37
36,43
33
745C
280A
Historical
Series
descriptions
data
! issue date) (issue date)
2/74
5/74
6/74
5/74
4/75
4/75
4/72
11/68
11/68
4/75
10/74
10/72
10/69
10/74
10/69
4/75
10/72
4/75
10/72
740
1/75
6/72
740C
1/75
6/72
741
1A5
6/72
1/75
2/75
10/74
10/74
8/74
6/72
10/72
6/72
6/72
7/68
820
825
820
830
5/74
5/74
6/74
5/74
11/68
11/68
814
815
813
816
817
811
810
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
748
749
53
•29
8
4/75
26,40
25
26
4/74
27
26
18
12
62
36
34,41
34
8/74
4/75
9/74
9/74
3/75
3/75
3/75
4/74
9/68*
6/72
2
0
96
82
81
81
56,66
56
56
56
56
45
90,103
90
90
90
90
84
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
1/75
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
11/68
4/75
10/74
4/75
3/75
3/75
4/74
4/75
7/74
7/74
11/72
7/64
11/72
10/72
10/72
11/72
517
519
33
34
36,43
36
34,41
34
33
49
49
625
547
546
621
616
648
647
264
55
52
52
55
55
55
55
14,55
4/74
7/74
7/74
4/74
4/74
8/74
8/72
10/74
•.•..
5/69
5/69
296
4/74
10/74
11/72
10/69
D61
D11
12/74
5/74
11/68
28
248
244
853
781
781C
783
782
784
435
112
110
•72
66
"113
39
33
71,89
"Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. #The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.
106
10/72
11/72
10/69
11/68
10/72
10/72
11/72
9/68#
10/69
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Diffusion indexes-Con.
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, components.
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial production
Industrial production components
Initial claims, avg. wkfy., unemployment insurance..
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Orders, new, durable goods industries
Orders, new, durable goods industries, components .
Orders, new, manufacturing
Prices 500 common stocks
Prices, selling, manufacturing
Prices, selling, manufacturing and trade
Prices, selling, retail trade
Prices, selling, wholesale trade
Prices, wholesale, manufactured goods
Prices, wholesale, manufactured goods, components .
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade
Sales, retail stores
Sales, retail stores, components
Workweek, average, production workers, mfg
Workweek, average, production workers, mfg..
components
Disposable personal income - See Income.
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
D446
D41
D41
D23
D23
D47
047
05
D450
D6
D6
D440
D19
D462
D460
D466
D464
D58
D5S
D34
D442
0444
D54
D54
Dl
46
64
63
85
98
100
97
100
98
101
98
85
97
99
84
97
85
85
85
85
98
102
97
85
85
98
102
97
D1
.....
99
63
64
63
47
63
46
63
47
47
47
47
64
63
46
46
64
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date! (issue date)
12/74
2/75
10/74
11/68
4/69
3/75
4/74
12/74
10/74
6/69
11/68
12/74
10/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
7/74
11/68
5/69
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
6/69
1/75
12/74
12/74
3/75
11/68
11/68
6/72
2/75
E
Earnings - See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
Civilian labor force, total
Employed persons in civilian labor force
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, components.
Employees on nonageicultutal payrolls, Dl
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed
Initial claims, average weekly, unemployment
insurance
Initial claims, avg. wkly, unemployment insut.. Dl . .
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Man-hours in nonagric. establishments, rate of chg...
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Overtime hours, production workers, mfg
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Unemployed persons in civilian labor force, total . . .
Unemployment rate, both sexes, 16-19 years
Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over
Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present .
Unemployment rate, Negro and other races
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment rate, white
Workweek, production workers, manufacturing . . . .
Workweek, production workers, mfg., components..
Workweek, production workers, manufacturing, Dl .
Equipment - See Investment, capital.
Exports - See Balance of payments and Foreign trade.
2
841
842
D446
•41
041
041
46
860
20
60
60
46
21,41
•5
D5
3
48
48
813
21
42
843
846
845
•44
45
844
40
848
•43
847
•1
01
Dl
20,39
63
20
21
65
38
20
21
60
60
60
22,43
22
60
22
60
22,41
60
20,39
64
21
62
63
74
94
94
85
75
100
98
74
96
3/75
2/74
2/74
12/74
2/75
74
98
74
74
4/74
4/74
3/75
3/75
3/75
5/74
2/75
2/74
2/74
2/74
2/74
2/74
3/75
2/74
2/74
2/74
2/74
2/74
2/75
83
74
75
94
94
94
75
75
94
75
94
75
94
74
99
97
2/75
3/75
3/75
8/68
4/72
4/72
11/68
8/68
12/74
6/69
6/69
8/68*
8/68*
8/68*
12/74
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
6/69
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
8/68
2/75
F
Federal funds rate
Federal Government - See Government.
Final sales-See Sales.
Financial flows sensitive Cl
Fixed weighted price index, NIA
Foreign series - See International comparisons.
Foreign trade - See also Balance of payments.
Balance, goods and services, NIA
Balance, merchandise trade
Exports, goods and services, NIA
Exports, merchandise, excl. military aid shipments..
Imports, goods and services, NIA
Imports, merchandise
Net exports of goods and services, NIA
Net exports of goods and services, percent of
GNP, NIA
France - See International comparisons.
Free reserves
119
35
82
6/74
11/73
817
211
38
56
83
90
5/74
8/74
.....
250
500
252
502
253
512
250
13
48
13
48
13
48
13
71
86
71
86
71
86
71
9/74
1/75
9/74
1/75
9/74
1/75
9/74
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
250A
19
73
9/74
10/69
93
35
82
10/74
11/72
G
Government • See also Balance of Payments and Defense.
Budget, NIA
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
Government surplus or deficit, total
602
601
600
298
54
54
54
17
89
89
89
72
8/74
8/74
8/74
10/74
7/68*
7/68*
7/68*
10/69
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
jovernment-Con.
Government grants and capital transactions, BOP
Government purchases of goods and services, NIA
Federal Government constant dollars
Federal Government, current dollars
Federal Government, percent of GNP
Federal, State and local governments
National defense
State and tocat governments, constant dollars
State and local governments, current dollars
State and local governments, percent of GNP
Gross national product
Auto product, gross, constant dollars, NIA
GNP constant dollars NIA
GNP. constant dollars, differences, NIA
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes, NIA
GNP, current dollars, NIA
GNP, current dollars, differences, NIA
GNP, current doltars. percent charges, NIA
GNP, gap (potential less actual)
GNP, potential, constant dollars
Per capita GNP, constant dollars, NIA
Per capita GNP, current dollars, NIA
Price deflator, implicit, NIA
Price deflator, implicit, differences, NIA
Price deflator, implicit, percent changes, NIA
Price index, fixed weighted, gross private
product. NIA
Price index, fixed weighted, gross private
product, change in, NIA
Gross private domestic investment - See Investment,
capital.
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to number of persons
unemployed
Hours of production workers, manufacturing
Average weekly overtime
Averarie workweek
Components
Diffusion index
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local bldg. permits —
Residential structures, constant dollars, GPDI, NIA .
Residential structures, current dollars, GPDI, NIA
Residential structures, percent of GNP, GPDI, NIA .
Vacancy rate rental housing
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) issue date)
570
53
88
7/74
5/69
263
262
262A
260
264
267
18
14
19
14
14,55
18
14
19
72
71
73
71
71,89
72
71
73
10/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
10/74
10/74
10/74
10/74
11/73
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
11/73
10/69
10/69
18
9,18,23,
42,61
72
69,76,
95
69
69
69,76
69
69
95
95
69
69
69
69
69
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
1/75
XA5
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
266
266A
249
•205
205B
205C
•200
200B
200C
207
206
217
215
210
210B
210C
65
9,23,42
65
61
61
9
9
9
9/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
211
56
90
8/74
211C
56
90
8/74
46
21
74
3/75
860
62
96
3/75
.....
21
•1
D1
Dl
20
20,39
2/75
2/75
12/74
8/68
63
74
74
99
97
28
•29
248
244
244A
857
26
26,40
18
12
19
62
78
78
72
70
73
96
4/75
4/75
9/74
9/74
9/74
5/74
6/72
4/69
210
210B
210C
9
69
69
69
8/74
8/74
8/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
280
16
71
10/74
10/69
280A
19
73
10/74
10/69
745
58
92
4/75
10/72
745C
59
92
4/75
10/72
746
58
93
4/75
10/72
746C
225
224
59
10
10
93
69
69
4/75
8/74
8/74
10/72
10/69
10/69
227
226
10
10
69
69
9/74
9/74
10/69
10/69
740
58
92
1/75
6/72
740C
59
92
1A5
6/72
741
58
92
1/75
6/72
741C
859
543
542
288
288A
540
59
58
52
52
16
19
51
92
92
88
88
72
73
87
1/75
2/75
1/75
1/75
10/74
10/74
7/74
6/72
10/72
5/69
5/69
10/69
10/69
5/69
51
10
23,42
10
87
69
76
69
7/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
5/69
10/69
7/68
10/69
286
16
72
10/74
10/69
286A
19
73
10/74
10/69
12/74
2/75
10/69
10/69
10/72
1
Implicit price deflator GNP
Percent changes
Imports - See Balance of payments and Foreign trade.
Compensation of employees, NIA
Compensation of employees, as percent of
national income, NIA
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees.
private nonfarm, percent change
Disposable personal income, constant dollars, NIA . .
Disposable personal income, current dollars, NIA . . .
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant
dollars, NIA
Disposable personal income, per capita, curr.dol., NIA
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, real average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm
Earnings, real average hourly, production workers.
private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, real spendable, average weekly
Income on foreign investments in U.S., BOP
Income on U.S investments sbroad, BOP
Interest, net, NIA
Interest, net, percent of national income, NIA
Investment income, military sales and services, BOP .
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services, BOP
National income NIA
Personal income, monthly
Personal income, NIA
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation
adjustment NIA
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation
adjustment, percent of national income, NIA
541
220
•52
222
"Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. #The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.
107
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series,"following this index!
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Income-Con.
Proprietors' income, NIA
282
Proprietors' income, pet. of national income, NIA
282A
Rental income of persons, NIA
284
Rental income of persons, percent of national
income, NIA
284A
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
748
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
749
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . .
53
Industrial materials prices
'23
Industrial materials prices, components
D23
Industrial materials prices, Dl
D23
Industrial production -Seealso International comparisons.
U.S., components
•
D47
U.S., Dl
D47
'47
U.S., index
47
U.S., rate of change
Insured unemployment
Avg. wkly. initial claims for unemployment insur. . . '5
Avg. wkly. initial claims for unemployment insur., Dl
D5
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
45
Interest, net, NIA
288
Interest, net, as percent of national income, NIA
288A
Interest rates
Business loans, short-term, bank rates
*67
Corporate bond yields
116
Federal funds rate
119
Mortgage yields, residential
118
Municipal bond yields
117
Prime rate charged by banks
109
114
Treasury bill rate
115
Treasury bond yields
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
133
France
136
137
Italy
138
Japan
132
United Kingdom
781
United States
135
West Germany
Industrial production
Canada
123
France
126
Italy
127
Japan
128
OECD, European countries
121
United Kingdom
122
United States
•47
West Germany
125
Stock prices
Canada
143
France
146
Italy
147
Japan
148
United Kingdom
142
United States
19
West Germany
145
Inventories
Business inventories, change in, NIA
271
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
275
Total, constant dollars
246
Total, current dollars
245
245A
Total, percent of GNP
65
Finished goods, book value, manufacturers'
851
Inventories to sales, ratio, mfg. and trade
815
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Inventory valuation adjustment • See Profits.
412
Manufacturers', book value
414
Manufacturers', condition of
•71
Manufacturing and trade, book value
'31
Manufacturing and trade, change in
D450
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Materials and supplies, manufacturers', change in,
20
book value
37
Materials purchased, higher inventories
26
Production materials, buying policy
Investment, capital
97
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog . . . .
11
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing
D11
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing, Dl . . . .
814
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial . .
Construction contracts, total value
Construction expenditures, business, and machinery
and equipment sales
853
Equipment, business, ratio to consumer goods
Gross private domestic investment, NIA
243
Equipment, producers' durable
Inventories, business, change in • See Inventories.
247
Nonresidential, total, constant dollars
Nonresidential, total, current dollars
241
Nonresidential, total, percent of GNP
241A
Structures, nonresidential
242
Structures, residential, constant dollars
248
Structures, residential, current dollars
244
Structures, residential, percent of GNP
244A
Total
240
Historical
Series
data
iescriptions
[issue date) [issue date)
71
73
71
10/74
10/74
10/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
73
93
93
76
79
10/74
10/74
10/74
8/74
10/74
10/69
6/72
1/72
7/68
4/69
100
97
10/74
4/69'
3/75
3/75
11/74
11/68
11/68
20,39
63
22
16
4/74
4/74
3/75
10/74
10/74
6/69
6/69
6/69
10/69
10/69
36,43
35
35
36
35
36
35
35
7/74
6/74
6/74
i/74
i/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
12/74
7/64
11/73
7/64
7/64
11/73
7/64
7/64
66
66
66
56,66
66
103
103
103
103
103
90,103
103
11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
6/74
11/74
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
5/69
9/72
67
67
67
67
67
67
23,42,67
67
103
103
104
104
104
103
76,103
104
7/74
1/74
1/74
7/74
1/74
1/74
3/75
1/74
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
12/74
11/74
30,40
64
23,42 <
65
101
98
76,103
10/72
11/68
10/72
15
18
12,28
19
29
62
38
71
71
72
70,78
73
79
96
83
10/74
10/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
4/74
12/74
5/74
10/69
10/69
45
45
29,43
28,40
47
84
84
79
78
85
1/75
1/75
12/74
12/74
12/74
11/68
11/68
2/69
2/69
11/68
28
28
28
4/74
4/75
11/74
9/68
12/74
12/74
27
26
63
38
26
25
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
4/74
27
62
8/74
3/75
10/69
10/69
9/68
2/69
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
nvestment, capital-Con.
Orders, new, capital goods industries, nondefense . . .
Plant and equipment, contracts and orders
Plant and equipment, new business expenditures . . .
Plant and equipment, new business expenditures, Dl
nvestment, foreign, BOP
Foreign direct investments in the U.S
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
Income on foreign investments in the U.S
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services
Investment income, U.S., military sales and services .
U.S. direct investments abroad
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
taly - See International comparisons.
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
lumber
24
10
•61
D61
26
25,39
27,43,44
46
560
564
543
542
541
540
561
565
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
[issue date) (issue date)
8/74
4/75
12/74
12/74
9/68
9/68
11/68
11/68
53
53
52
52
7/74
7/74
1/75
1/75
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
51
51
53
53
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
32
32,43
32
8/74
8/74
4/75
7/68
11/68
10/72
32
30,41
4/75
8/74
10/72
11/68
37
20
5/74
3/75
11/68
8/68#
77
78,84
84
Japan - See International comparisons.
.abor cost per unit of gross product
.abor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
.abor cost per unit of output, total private economy .
.abor cost per unit of output, total private economy,
percent change
Labor cost, price per unit of
Labor force - See Employment and unemployment.
Lagging indicators, six, Cl
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Leading indicators - See Composite indexes.
Liabilities, liquid, to all foreigners, BOP
Liabilities, liquid and certain nonliquid, to foreign
official agencies, BOP
Liabilities of business failures
Liquidity balance, net, BOP
Loans - See Credit.
63C
•17
830
3
532
14
521
7/74
4/75
7/74
48
48
813
3/75
3/75
5/74
8/68#
8/68#
M
Machinery - See Investment, capital.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments, rate of chg. .
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Merchandise trade - See Balance of payments and Foreign
trade.
Military - See Defense.
Money supply, change in
Money supply (Ml)
Money supply plus time deposits (M2)
Money supply, time deposits and deposits at
nonbank thrift institutions (M3)
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortgage yields, residential
National defense - See Defense.
National Government - See Government.
National income - See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
Defense products
Defense products industries
Durable goods industries
Components
Diffusion index
Export orders, durables except autos
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI, NIA
Constant dollars, total
Current dollars, total
Percent of GNP, total
Structures
85
102
33
33
1/75
1/75
10/72
10/72
103
33
118
33
33
36
1/75
4/75
6/74
7/64
26
25,39
55
55
25,39
8/74
4/75
8/74
8/72
8/74
63
508
D440
10/74
4/74
5/74
12/74
247
241
241A
242
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
24
"10
648
647
>6
D6
06
506
9/68
9/68
9/68#
9/68
8/68#
11/68
10/69
10/69
10/69
9/68#
11/68
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders • See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Output, labor cost per unit of
Output per man-hour, total private economy
Output per man-hour, total private economy, change in .
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
Output to capacity, manufacturing
Overtime hours of production, mfg., avg. weekly
121
"62
770
770C
858
850
21
67
1/74
32,43
58
59
58
62
20
8/74
4/75
4/75
4/75
8/74
2/75
"Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.
108
10/72
11/68
10/72
10/72
6/68
12/74
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
fistorical
Series
data
escriptions
ssue date) issue date)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
-listorical
Series
data
escriptions
issue date) ssue date)
Sales
P
Personal consumption expenditures, NIA
Automobiles
Durable goods
Durable goods except autos
Nondurable goods
oer vices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income - See Income.
Plant and equipment • See also Investment, capital.
Businessexpendituresfor
Business expenditures for, Dl
Contracts and orders for
. . . .
Potential gross national product
rnce indexes
Consumer - See also International comparisons.
All items
All items, change in
Commodities less food
Food
Services
Deflators, NIA
Fixed weighted, gross private product
Fixed weighted, gross private product, change in . . .
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Differences
Percent changes
Industrial materials
Industrial materials components
Series titles
(See complete titles in "TitlBS and Sources of
Series," following this index)
.
..
Industrial materials, Dl
Labor cost, price per unit of
Stock • See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks Dl
Wholpsale
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
11,18
11
19
70
70
70
70
70
70
70
73
27,43,44
46
25,39
61
78,84
84
77
95
12/74
12/74
4/75
1/75
11/68
11/68
9/68
56,66
56
56
56
56
90,103
90
90
90
90
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
211
211C
210
210B
210C
•23
D23
56
56
9
90
90
69
69
69
79
100
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
10/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
4/69
D23
•17
63
30,41
97
80
10/74
8/74
4/69
11/68
•19
D19
30,40
63
79
97
10/74
10/74
5/69
5/69
57
57
91
91
7/74
7/74
6/69
6/69
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
7/74
8/74
6/69
11/68
234
232
233
236
237
231
230
230A
•61
061
"10
206
781
781C
783
782
784
750
752
All commodities
Farm products
roods and feeds, processed
Industrial commodities
Industrial commodities, change in
Manufactured goods
Manufactured goods, components
Manufactured goods, Dl
Price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime rate charged by banks
Producers' durable equipment, GPDI, NIA
Production - See Industrial production and GNP.
Production materials, buying policy
Production of business equip, to consumer goods, ratio . .
Productivity
Output per man-hour, total private economy
Output per man-hour, total private economy,
change in
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm econ. . .
Profits
Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars
Corporate, after taxes, current dollars
Corporate, and inventory valuation adjustment, NIA
Corporate, and inventory valuation adjustment,
percent of national income, NIA
Corporate, undistributed, plus inventory valuation
adjustment, NIA
Manufacturing Dl
Manufacturing and trade net Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to income originating in Corp. bus. . . .
Proprietors' income, NIA
Proprietors' income, percent of national income, NIA . . .
Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting
higher inventories
11
11
11
11
751
55
55C
58
D58
D58
•17
30,40
57
31,57
57
31,57
10/69
10/69
10/69
64
30,41
80,91
91
80,91
102
98
80
D462
D460
D466
D464
109
243
47
47
47
47
36
12
85
85
85
85
82
70
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
6/74
9/74
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/73
10/69
26
853
28
79
96
11/74
3/75
12/74
11/68
770
58
93
4/75
10/72
770C
858
59
58
93
93
4/75
4/75
10/72
6/68
30
30,41
16
79
79
72
8/74
8/74
10/74
1/72
7/68
10/69
286A
19
73
10/74
10/69
294
D34
D442
15
816
22
282
282A
17
63
46
30
38
30
16
19
72
97
85
80
83
80
71
73
10/74
1/75
12/74
8/74
5/74
8/74
10/74
10/74
37
28
78
4/75
12/74
284
16
71
10/74
10/69
284A
534
522
93
19
50
49
35
73
87
87
82
10/74
7/74
7/74
10/74
10/69
5/69
248
244
244A
18
12
19
72
70
73
9/74
9/74
9/74
18
•16
286
10/69
11/68
3/69
Final sales, NIA
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturers' sales, total value
Manufacturing and trade sales
Manufacturing and trade sales, net, Dl
Retail sales constant dollars
Retail sales current dollars
rnmnnnpnf ^
Diffusion index
aving, NIA
Capital consumption allowances
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving to disposable personal income
Profits, undistributed corporate, plus inventory
valuation adjustment
Surplus or deficit, government
Securities purchases, BOP
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
Selling prices - See Prices, selling.
Sensitive financial flows, Ci
Shipments, ratio of manufacturers' unfilled orders to . . . .
State and local government - See Government.
Stock prices - See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Surplus - See Government.
15
15
18
24
62
71
71
72
76
96
10/74
10/74
10/74
8/74
12/74
10/69
10/69
27
45
24,42
46
24
24,42
8/74
1/75
12/74
12/74
4/75
3/75
9/68#
11/68
2/69
11/68
64
78
84
76
85
76
76
102
98
3/75
6/72
296
290
292
854
17
17
17
62
72
72
72
96
10/74
10/74
10/74
8/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
7/68
294
17
17
72
72
10/74
298
10/74
10/69
10/69
564
565
53
53
88
88
7/74
7/74
5/69
5/69
817
852
38
62
83
96
5/74
8/74
9/68
30,40
63
79
97
10/74
10/74
5/69
5/69
270
274
273
57
851
69
410
•56
D444
59
•54
D54
D54
•19
D19
7/68
2/69
6/72
T
"ransportation and other services, payments, BOP
"ransportation and other services, receipts, BOP
549
548
52
52
88
88
1/75
1/75
5/69
5/69
Payments by U.S. travelers abroad, BOP
Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S., BOP
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
545
544
114
115
52
52
35
35
88
88
82
82
7/74
7/74
6/74
6/74
5/69
5/69
7/64
7/64
860
•5
D5
3
843
62
20,39
63
20
60
96
74
98
74
94
3/75
4/74
4/74
3/75
2/74
6/69
6/69
8/68#
4/72
846
845
•44
60
60
22,43
22
60
22
60
22,41
60
94
94
75
75
94
75
94
75
94
2/74
2/74
2/74
3/75
2/74
2/74
2/74
2/74
2/74
4/72
4/72
4/72
6/69
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
96
25
852
27
29
62
78
79
96
8/74
8/74
8/74
9/68
9/68
9/68
867
32
62
29
96
79
5/74
11/74
10/72
12/74
57
57
57
31,57
57
31,57
91
91
91
80,91
91
80,91
102
98
74
99
97
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
7/74
2/75
6/69
8/68
U
Unemployment
Help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed,
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemployment insur. . . .
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemployment insur., Dl
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Persons unemployed, civilian labor force
unemolovment rates
Both sexes 16-19 years
Females, 20 years and over
15 weeks and over
Insured, average weekly
Males, 20 years and over
Married males spouse present
Negro and other races
Total
White
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change in
Unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods indus. . .
United Kingdom-See International comparisons.
45
844
40
848
•43
847
7/68
10/69
10/69
Vacancy rate in rental housing
Vendor performance
R
W
Rental income of persons, NIA
Rental income of persons, as percent of national income,
NIA
Reserve position, U S BOP
Reserve transactions balance, BOP
Reserves, free
Residential structures - See also Housing.
Residential structures, constant dollars, GPDI, NIA .
Residential structures, current dollars, GPDI, NIA . .
Residential structures, percent of GNP, GPDI, NIA .
S
Salaries - See Compensation.
11/72
10/69
10/69
Wages and salaries • See Compensation.
West Germany - See International comparisons.
Wholesale prices
All commodities
Farm products
Foods and feeds, processed
Industrial commodities
Industrial commodities, change in
Manufactured goods
Manufactured noods components
Manufactured goods Dl
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing
Workweek of production workers, mfg., components . . .
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, Dl . . .
750
752
751
55
55C
58
D58
D58
•1
D1
D1
64
20,39
63
•Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; 01, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.
2/75
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
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Washington, D.C. 20402
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POSTAGE AND
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U.S. GOVERNMENT
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37S
FIRST CLASS MAIL
LookAhead
With
AREA ECONOMIC
PROJECTIONS 1990
States and Regions
BEA Economic Areas
SMSA's
Non-SMSA Portions of BEA
Economic Areas
Prepared by the
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Social and Economic Statistics Administration
Bureau of Economic Analysis
f*A^%
Available from the Superintendent of Documents,
U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402
Price $3.05. Make check payable to the Superintendent of Documents.
Order by Stock Nurnber 0324-00490.
@FedFRASER