Full text of Business Conditions Digest : May 1973
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MAY 1973
DATA THROUGH APRIL
UNITED STATED*
MRTMENT OF
IHVIMERCE
PLICATION
U.S. DEPARTMENT
OF COMMERCE
Social and Economic
Statistics Administration
BUREAU OF
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
BUSINESS
CONDITIONS
DIGEST
This report was prepared in the Statistical Indicators
Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication
areBarry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and
review,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. Tunstall-Collection and compilation of
basic data. (Telephone 301-763-5448)
The cooperation of various government and private
agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing data are indicated in
the list of series and sources at the back of this
report.
U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Frederick B. Dent, Secretary
Social and Economic Statistics Administration
Edward D. Failor, Administrator
This publication is prepared under the general
guidance of a technical committee established by the
Office of Management and Budget. The committee
consists of the following persons:
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Morris R. Goldman, Deputy Director
Feliks Tamm, Editor
Julius Shiskin, Chairman
Office of Management and Budget
Edgar R. Fiedler, Department of Treasury
Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisors,
Executive Office of the President
George Jaszi, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce
Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
personal, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have a/so proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
Subscription price, including supplements, Is $33 a year ($8.25 additional
for foreign mailing). Single Issues are $3.25. Airmail delivery is available at
an additional charge. For Information about domestic or foreign airmail
delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below),
This monthly report brings together many of the economic
time series found most useful by business analysts and
forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments,
emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of
business conditions and was based largely on the list of
leading, roughly coincident and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Some other approaches commonly used by "students of
economic conditions include econometric models and
anticipations and intentions data. The econometric model
concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships
among consumption, private investment, government, and
various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of
businessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of the
content of Business Cycle Developments has been retained in
this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of
other approaches have been added to make it more generally
useful to those concerned with an evaluation of current
business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section
of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not to
be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis or any other government agency of any
particular approach to economic analysis. This report is
intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report have
been published by their source agencies. A series finding
guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and data
sources, is shown at the back of this report.
enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable) to the
Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402,
New Features and Changes for This Issue
BCII
iii
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments .
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons
How to Read Charts
How to Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
MAY 1973
Data Through April
Series ESI No. 73-5
.
1
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
5
PART I. CHARTS
a
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving . .
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7
B8
Composite I ndexes
NBER Short List
20
23
25
28
30
33
indicators by Timing
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components . . .
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components . . .
48
49
54
56
58
60
37
39
Actual and Potential Gross National Product . . . 61
Analytical Ratios
62
Diffusion Indexes
63
Rates of Change
65
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the
transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this
periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through
September 1, 1975.
43
46
ANALYTICAL
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
66
67
68
PART II
TABLES
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income
69
69
70
70
71
71
71
71
72
72
73
B6
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
74
76
77
78
79
81
B7
Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes
83
B2
B3
B4
B5
PART III
84
85
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components
D3
D4
D5
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
86
87
89
90
92
94
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
B1
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
Actual and Potential GNP
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
95
96
97
99
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices
103
103
104
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
QCD and Related Measures of Variability
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
105
108
111
112
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See Alphabetic Index—Series finding Guide)
Ei. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970 (See April 1973 issue)
F. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators (See March 1973 issue)
G. Expansion Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series
116
119
122
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of
hanges in this issue are as follows:
changes are made from
1. The seasonally adjusted data on Wholesale prices (series
55c, 751, and 752) have been revised to reflect the source
igency's new seasonal adjustment of the basic data. This new
idjustment resulted in scattered revisions throughout the series.
Phese revisions are shown graphically over the entire period and
Ln tabular form for 1971 to date. Figures for the period prior
bo 1971 will be shown in a subsequent issue. Further information
concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department
)f Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Prices and Living
Conditions, Division of Wholesale Prices.
time to time to Incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
2. The seasonally adjusted data on Consumer prices (series
?8lc, 782, and 783) have been revised to reflect the source
igencyfs new seasonal adjustment of the basic data. This new
idjustment resulted in scattered revisions throughout the series.
Phese revisions are shown graphically over the entire period and
Ln tabular form for 1971 to date. Figures for the period prior to
L971 will be shown in a subsequent issue. Further information
concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department
>f Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Prices and Living
Conditions, Division of Consumer Prices.
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes In placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
3. The series on Real average hourly earnings (series 741) >
leal spendable average weekly earnings (series 859), and Retail
sales in constant 1967 dollars (series 59) contain scattered
"evisions resulting from the use of consumer price index deflators,
levised data are shown in this issue for the period 1971 to date.
Data for the period prior to 1971 will be published in a subsequent
Issue.
4« Basic data for the series based wholly or in part on data on
>utstanding loans held by weekly reporting large commercial banks
series 335 72, and 112) have been revised by the source agency
'or the period beginning January 1972. These revisions reflect
phe source agency1s annual updating of these statistics. Further
.nformation concerning these revisions may be obtained from the
bard of Governors of the Federal Reserve 3ystem, Banking Section.
5. Appendix C contains historical data for series 5, 9, 4-7,
i7b, 47c, D47, 48, 48b, 480, and 853.
6. Appendix G contains expansion comparison charts for series 43
85c, 114, 115, 741, 78lc, and 858.
h7,
'he June issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
•elease on June 29
111
indexes, etc.
4 SESA PROJECTS on economic fluctuations
BUSINESS CONDITIONS
DIGES5T
DEFENSE INDICATORS
LONG TERM
ECONOMIC GROWTH
COMPUTER PROGRAMS
FOR TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
analysing
a
This report brings together
approx/mate/y 600 monthly
and quarterly economic time
series in a form which is
convenient for analysts
whether their approach to
the study of current bus/ness
conditions and prospects is
the national income model,
the leading indicators,
anticipations and intentions,
or a combination of these.
Other types of data such as
foreign trade, Federal government activities, and international comparisons of consumer prices, stock prices,
and industrial production are
included to facilitate a more
complete analysis.
Data are presented in charts
and tables, and appendixes
are included which provide
historical data, series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of
variability. Also, a computer
tape containing data for
most of the series in the
report is available for purchase.
The s©ure© statements fiar
FOftTilAM 0V programs wtiidi
ur©
b^ the Boireena fin
ote analysis of ftsm©
are availafeO© from the HID maim
en a single @©mputt@r tape,
A monthly report for
analyzing th@ eyrrent and
pr@sp©ctlv© impact of
defense activity ©n the
national economy.
economic fluctuations
over a Song
©f
This report has been
developed from available
statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view
of the U.S. economy. It has
been planned, prepared, and
published as a basic research
document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers,
and students. It brings
together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the
complete statistical basis for
a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique
presentation of the full range
of factors required for an
understanding of our
country's economic development. Some of the statistical
series go back to 1860. A
computer tape file of the time
series included in the report
is available for purchase.
This report brings together
the principal time series on
defense activities which
influence short-term changes
in the national economy.
These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders,
shipments, inventories,
expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 50 time series included
are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the
activities they measure occur
in the defense order-production-delivery process. Most
are monthly series, although
a few are quarterly. This
publication provides original
and seasonally adjusted basic
data in monthly, quarterly,
and annual form. Charts and
analytical tables are included
to facilitate interpretation.
IV
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
PROGRAMS.—Two variants
of the Census computer
program for measuring and
analyzing seasonal, tradingday, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations and the relations
among them. They are particularly useful in analyzing
economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The
X-1J variant is used for
adjusting monthly data and the
X-HQ for quarterly data.
These programs can make additive as well as multiplicative
adjustments and compute
many summary and analytical
measures of the behavior
of each series.
DIFFUSION INDEX
PROGRAM.—A computer
program for computing diffusion indexes, cumulated
diffusion indexes, and
summary measures of the
properties of each index.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized info six major
A, National Income and Prddoet
C.
D.
E.
F.
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key indicators :
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons
Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part Si (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 1952 (except
In section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain
for only the last
few years. Except for seetiqn Fp the charts
contain shading which indicates periods of
recession In general business activity.
In addition to the charts: and tables described above, each issue .contains a summary table which shows ;'t!he current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of eaco issue.
It should be noted that tfoe
numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.
MCO Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD
moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree.of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis ( B E A ) summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Persona/ consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports.
Exports include receipts from domestic
output sold abroad, transportation, travel,
other services, fees and royalties and income on investments in foreign areas.
Imports include purchases of foreign
goods, payments for transportation, travel
and other services, military expenditures
as well as payments of income on foreign
investments in the United States. More
detail on U.S. balance of payments is provided in Section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Persona/ income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an
accounting period. It is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
SECTION B
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicator? and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These Indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses tha same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 78 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity, The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another off coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that
of
the
coincident index. This facilitates
Cross-Ciassification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
>w
\^
Economic
Process
\^
\,
\,
Cyclical
\
Timing
\
1. EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(40 series)
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(9 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
IV. INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(14 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (5 series)
VI. MC
AN CREDIT
AND
<» series)
Flows
and
(7 s
Credit
(2 s
Cash flows (2 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(26 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(12 series)
Comprehensive
Backlog of investment
production
commitments
(3 series)
(2 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (4 series)
Investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
Bank r
(1 s
Interes
(4 s
Unit labor costs
(3 series)
Outsta
(2s
Interes
(2 s
comparisons among the leading, coincident,
and lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or a$ an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses tbese series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D
OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
sucb series, though by no means a com
prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions,
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States,
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
Because these data are influenced by
foreign as well as domestic conditions,
the cyclical shading has been omitted
from the balance-of-payments charts.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures
and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and
product accounts, but are not shown in
section A of this report. The defense series
included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of
defense activities, see Defense Indicators,
a monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis
publication.
The price movements series consist of
consumer and wholesale price indexes and
their major components. Additional data
on prices and costs are shown in several
other sections.
SECTION E
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960rs,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term {6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B f and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected
group of economic series. Percent changes
are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or
for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F
Lit. INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates em
of recession and beginning o
Expansion as designated b;
NBER.
Basic Data
(May) (Feb.
-**P
T-
Arabic number indicates lates
month for which data are plotted
("6" - June)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Roman number indicates lates
quarter for which data an
plotted. ("IV" ~ fourth quarter
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
/
\
!
Parallel linos indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
^v"i ID
/
Dotted line indicates anticipate!
data.
Various scales are used to high
light the patterns of the individua
series. "Scale A" is an arithmeti'
scale, "scale L-i" is a logarith
mic scale with 1 cycle in a givei
distance, "scale L-2" is a log
arithmic scale with 2 cycles ii
that distance, etc. The scale:
should be carefully noted becausi
they show whether the plotte;
lines for various series are di
rectly comparable.
Scale shows percent of compo
nents rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-mcnth spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term1 moving averages are plotted l ^, 2,
or 2y2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
Arabic number indicates lates
month for which data are use<
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates lates
quarter for which data are use<
in computing the indexes. ("I" =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting point
indicates quarterly data over vari
ous spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts o
anticipations and intentions dat;
(section C) and balance of pay
ments data (section D) do no
conform to the above method o
presentation. Deviations are ade
quatefy explained as they occur
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE in the
back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles,
or
2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES where series are listed in
numerical order according to series numbers within each of the
Digest's six sections.
Percent change
Basic data
Unit
of
measure
Series title
Average
1970
1971
1972
4th Q
IstQ
2dQ
3dQ
4th Q
IstQ
1971
1972
1972
1972
1972
1973
2dQ
to
3dQ
3dQ
to
4th Q
4th Q
to
IstQ
1972
1972
1973
Series number
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1. Gross National Product
200.
205.
210
215.
217.
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
Ann. rate, bil. dol. .
do
1958=100
Ann. rate, dol. . . .
do .
.
,
i
976.4 1050.4 1151.8 1078.1 1109.1 1139.4 1164.0 1194.9 1237,9
789,5 754.5 766.5 783,9 796.1 811*6 827.3
722.1 741.7
141,6 145.9
142,9
135.2
146.2
144.7
145,3
147.2
149'. 6
5*072
5*514 5*187 5 f326 5*461 5*568 5*703 5.899
4*765
3*524 3*582 3*780 .3*630 3 * 6 8 1 3*757 3*808 3*874 3*942
2,2
1,6
0.6
2.0
i«4
2.7
1.9
0.7
2.4
1.7
3.6
1,9
1,6
3.4
1.8
200
205
210
215
217
A2. National and Personal Income
National income current dollars
Ann.ratB.bil.dol. . 798.6
806.3
do
Personal income current dollars
689.5
Disposable personal income current dollars . . . . . . . do ..
533.2
do
Disposable personal income 1958 dollars
Per capita disposable personal income,
Ann. rate, dol. . . . 3i366
current dollars . . .
do
2*603
227. Per capita disposable pers. income, 1958 dol. . .
220
222.
224
225
226.
855.7
861.4
744.4
554.7
935,6
935.9
795.1
578.5
876.2
881.5
758,5
560.9
903,1
907.0
770.5
565,7
922.1
922.1
782.6
571.4
943.0
939.9
798.8
579.6
974«2 1007.1
974-6 993.9
828.2 850.4
597.3 604.9
2.3
1«9
2.1
1*4
3,3
3.7
3.7
3.1
3.4
2.0
2.7
1.3
220
222
224
225
3*595
2t679
3*807
2*770
3? 649
2*698
3*700
2*716
3*751
2*739
3*821
2*773
3*953
2*851
4.052
2*882
1.9
1*2
3.5
2.8
2.5
1.1
226
227
664*9
495.4
103.5
721.0
524.6
116,1
680.5
503.2
106.1
696.1 713.4
511.0
520,9
1 1 1 . 0113,9
728.6
528.7
118.6
745.7
537.8
120*8
773.6
550.3
130.4
2.3
1.7
1.9
4.2
3,7
2,3
7,9
6.7
230
231
232
233
234
236
237
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230
231.
232.
233.
234
236
237
Total current dollars
Total, 1958 dollars
Durable goods current dollars
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars
Automobiles current dollars
Nondurable goods current dollars
Services current dollars
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
... . do
do
do
do
do
do
616.8
477.0
68.1
35.4
76,8
39,3
7Q.2
35,9
74.1
36.9
75-7
38,2
77.0
41,6
80-2
40-6
264.4
261.8
278.1
283.3
299.5
305.4
283.4
290.9
288.3
296.7
297,2
302.4
302.0
308.0
310-4
314.5
44*8
322,6
320.6
2«i
1.5
4.1
1.7
8.9
1.6
1.9
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
Gross private domestic investment total
do
Fixed investment total nonresident isl
do
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures . . .
do
Fixed investment, producers' durable equip
do
Fixed investment residential structures
2
do
Change in business inventories total
137.1
100.9
152.0
105.8
180.4
120.6
158.8
109.8
168.1
116.1
177,0
119.2
183.2
120.7
193.4
126.1
199,7
133.5
3.5
10
36.0
64.9
31.2
38.4
67,4
42.6
42.2
76.3
54.0
38.8
71.0
47.3
41.3
74,8
51,6
42,0
77,2
52.8
41,8
79.0
54*4
8.0
43.7
82.3
57.0
10.3
46.7
86,8
59,4
90.5
62.5
28.0
85.6
-2.4
10,3
2.8
2.1
3.9
1.9
5.6
4.5
4.5
4.2
4.8
2.3
3.3
5.9
6.9
5,5
4.2
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240
241
242.
243.
244.
245
4.9
3.6
5,9
1.7
0.4
5.0
6,8
-0.5
2.3
3.0
3.0
-3.5
240
241
242
243
244
245
A5. Foreign Trade
250. Net exports of goods and services2
252 Exports
253 Irnports
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
3.6
0.7
66.1
62.9
59.3
65*4
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
do
219.0
232.8
-4,2
73.7
77.9
-2.1
63.0
65,1
-4.6
70,7
75.3
-5.2
70.0
75,2
-3.4
74.4
77.8
-3.5
79.6
83,1
-2.2
87.6
89.8
254.6
105.8
240.9
100.7
249.4
105.7
254,1
108.1
255.6
105.4
259,3
104.0
266.8
106.6
75,9
71.9
75.0
1*8
6.3
3.5
-0.1
7,0
6,8
1.3
8.1
250
252
253
2.9
2,5
2,5
3,2
260
262
264
266
6,6
270
271
274
275
10,1
A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260
262
264.
266
Total
Federal
National defense
State and local
...
0.6
1.4
96.5
75.1
97.8
71.4
76.7
78.6
75.1
73.2
122.5
135.0
148,8
140.2
143.7
146.0
150.2
155.2
160.1
2«9
3,3
Ann.rate, bit.dol. .
do
do
do
183.0
1*9
284.0
3.0
194.6
1*1
297.3
2.5
217.3
5.2
319.3
0.8
200.1
208,8
0.4
308.4
0,0
214.6
3.0
317.5
2*1
220.7
5.4
321.7
2.6
225.1
303.0
3.5
2*8
2.4
1.3
0.5
2.0
6.5
2.5
-1.6
240.3
6,3
344.3
0.5
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
...... do
do
do
603.8
644.1
705.3
660.4
682.7
697.8
710.2
730-3
757.0
66.8
23.3
69.9
34.8
70.0
24.5
78.6
38.5
75.2
25,6
88.2
41,3
71.8
25.0
79,4
39.7
73.3
25.2
81.8
40.1
73.2
24.2
86.1
40.9
75.3
26.2
89.6
41.7
79.0
26.9
95.6
42.5
81,2
26.5
99.0
43.4
1.8
2.9
8,3
4.1
2*0
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
142.1
153.9
173.5
157.8
163,9
168,0
173.6
60.9
54.8
59.3
55.7
50,1
188.1
62*8
191,7
54.9
-2.5
-4.5
-1.3
-2.5
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
270.
271
274
275
Final sales, durable goods
Change in business inventories dur goods2
Final sales nondurable goods
Change in bus inventories nondur goods2
-1.9
11.9
329.7
-4,2
-5.6
4,4
2.1
AS. National Income Components
280
282.
284.
286.
288.
Compensation of employees
. .
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons »
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adj. .
Net interest
2.8
4.9
2.7
6,7
1.9
2.1
280
282
284
286
288
1.9
-10.0
290
292
-15.0
1,5
294
296
298
3.7
2.8
-1.5
3.6
A9. Saving
290. Gross saving, total
292 Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296 Capital consumption allowances
298 Government surplus or deficit total2
A10.
273
246
247.
248.
249
261.
.
'
... do
do
do
50.8
56.5
3.3
1*4
7.1
15.8
93.8
24.6
20.9
105.3
104.1
105.6
-16.9
-5,4
-18.7
17.0
99,7
-7.7
21.2
103.7
18.8
97.4
19.8
86.3.
-10.1
-6.9
-2«4
-4-8
107,2
7,0
718.0
4.1
739.1
2*6
784,9
4.6
753,8
0.7
766,3
0.3
780.0
3.9
789.8
6,2
803,6
8.0
822.4
4.9
77.6
22.3
28.4
76.8
29.1
36.4
84,4
35.0
38.5
79.2
32.1
35.8
82.2
34.2
35.6
83.6
34.4
37,0
84,2
35.1
40.6
87.6
36.4
40.9
91.7
37.4
46.0
139.0
137.6
142.8
141.1
142.2
143,9
142.6
142.7
142.9
-0.9
36.2
49.2
35,4
49.0
45.5
36,7
33.2
26.4
19,7
-3.5
11.0
20.7
-1.1
4.5
8.4
23.6
16.0
1,4
-2.4
11.8
Real GNP (1958 dollars)
Final sales 1958 dollars
Change in bus inventories 1958 dollars2 .
Fixed investment, nonresidential, 1958 dollars .
Fixed investment, residential struc., 1958 dol. .
Gross auto product, 1958 dollars
Government purchases of goads and
services, total, 1958 dollars . .
Anruate, bil.dot. .
do
do
do
do
do
1.3
2.3
0.7
2.0
9.7
1.7
1.8
4.0
3.7
0.7
0.1
2.3
-3.1
4.7
2.7
12,5
0,1
273
246
247
248
249
261
El. Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP gap (potential less actual), 1958 dol.2 ....
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
-6.8
-6,7
207
<
Unit
of
measure
Series title
Basic data
Percent change
Average
1971
1972
126.2
124*0
114.8
125.0
143.7
136.8
125.0
129.8
3dQ
4th Q
1972
1972
1stQ
1973
Feb.
1973
Mar.
1973
Apr.
1973
Feb.
Mar.
to
to
Mar.
1973
Apr.
1873
3d Q
to
4th Q
4th Q
to
1972
1973
ist a
Series number 1
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Con.
B, CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Composite Indexes
810.
820
825
830
12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj.3
5 coincident indicators
5 coheident indicators deflated
6 1 ageing indicators
1967=100
do
do
do
4,3
4.4
4.2
4.4
5*1
3.7
2*7
5.2
810
820
825
830
NA
1.2
1*7
2. B
2,9
5.3
1.4
0.7
4.8
3,9
4,9
813
814
815
016
817
0.0
0*5
0.2
0.0
0*2
NA
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.4
2i
2
2.0
0,2
7.3
0.0
5
3
145.7
137.8
125.8
130.0
151.9
143.9
131.1
135,7
159,7
149,2
134,6
142,8
159.8
149.3
134.7
143.4
162.4
150.9
135.4
144*9
161.5
152*1
136*1
148*1
1.6
1.1
0.5
1.0
102.4
122.5
116*4
114.5
127.9
103.0
123.3
118.9
116.9
131.0
NA
121.1
117.3
115*8
NA
0.6
0.7
2.1
2.1
2.4
40.9
41*1
-0.6
0*8
0.5
2. 2
LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS
813
814
816
816.
817
Marginal employment adjustments
CapiUil investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Profitability
Sensitive financial flows
. .
do
. do . .
. . do
do
do ..
93.9
99.4
99.9
112.3
102.1
100.2
105*4
119.0
107.7
106.9
115.4
119,8
108,3
107,6
116.1
101.1
121.8
111.3
110.7
122.3
102.5
122,7
116.6
115,0
128.3
40.7
40.8
40,7
NA
-i.a
-1*3
-0*9
B1. Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
•1. Average workweek, prod, workrs, mfg
21. Average weekly ov»rtim* hour*,
production workirt manufacturing2
2. Accession rart, mtnuficturing8
*5. Average wMkly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted4)
3. Uyoff rttl, manufacturing (inverted4)2
Hours
39.9
40*6
40*9
do ..
Per tOO employ. . .
2.9
3.9
3.5
4.4
3,5
4.4
3.7
4.4
3,8
4.8
3.9
4*8
3.9
4.7
4*1
NA
Thousands .
Per 100 employ. ..
291
1.6
257
1*1
250
1.1
245
0.9
227
0,9
222
0*9
230
0*9
238
NA
88
82
127
100
132
104
153
112
175
121
177
119
178
121
-0.1
-3.6
-3.5
0.0
NA
NA
122
0.6
1.7
NA
0*8
137.73 142.45 142.83 144,57 145*94 146.27 146,43 147.24
70*645 72*764 72*940 73*838 74 t 634 74*725 74*933 75*042
75i732 78*230 78*469 78*946 79*722 79*703 80 t 409 80*606
0.1
0.3
0.9
0<6
0*1
0*2
-o.a
1
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Job Vacmcitt:
60. Number o! job vacancit*, manufacturing
46 Hilp-wintJd advertising
Thousands .
1967-100 . .
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagricuttural establishments. . Ann. rate, billion
man-hours
Thousands
Ml. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
do
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43 Unemploymant rate, total (inverted4)3
46. Average waeVly4 insured
unemployment
rate (invert^ )3
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(inverted4)8
7,7
8.0
50
46
1*2
1*2
0.6
0.9
1*1
1,0
48
41
42
15,9
14,4
Percent
5.9
5.6
5.6
5.3
5,0
5.1
5.0
5.0
o»o
0,3
0*3
43
. ... do
4.1
3.4
3.4
3.2
2*7
2.7
2*8
2.6
-0,1
0-2
0*2
0,5
4S
do
3.2
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.4
2.4
2*5
2.4
-0,1
o«i
0.1
0,2
40
do
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.0
1*0
1*0
0.9
0,0
0*1
0,1
0,2
44
Ann.rate.bil.dol. . 1050.4 1151.8 1164,0 1194.9 1237.9,
do
789.5 796,1 811.6
827.3
741.7
1967-100
120.9
114.4
115.0 118.4
106.8
121.1
121.8
123*0
0,6
1*0
2.7
1.9
3.0
3,6
1*9
2,1
200
203
47
994.5 1001.3 1008*9
236*8 238.0 241.0
0.7
0,5
0*8
1*3
3.7
3,7
2*0
2.8
52
53
NA
138.79 138.79 140.83
1231.0
41*296 41*242 41*939 41*328
33*062 33.073 33*232 32*440
1.5
NA
4.5
2.5
3,7
2.7
5.7
3,9
5,7
3,7
56
57
54
59
1.3
1*7
NA
S.2
12
13
6.8
6
3
10
11
24
0.1
LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and
over (inverted4)2
B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production:
*200 GNP in current dollars
*20S. GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production
Comprehensive Income:
*52 Personal income , .
. ..
... Anri.rate, bil.dol. .
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., construction . . ...... do
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*66. Manufacturing an J trade sales . .
57. Final sates
*54, Sales of retail storjs
59. Sales of retail storsis, deflated
935.9
221,0
939,9
221,6
974.6
229.7
Bit dol
111.92 124.56 125.63
Ann.rate, bil.dol. . 1046.7 1145.9 1156.0
Mil. dol
34 i026 37*269 37*686
do .
28*977 30*808 31*034
131.28
1164.6
39t079
31*875
861.4
202.5
993,9
236.2
1.7
0.5
-1.5
-2*4
B3. Fixed Capftal Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Index of net busine,a formation
13. New business incorporations
1967=100
Number .
118.7
120.8
NA
120.5
118.6
NA
111.6
24*020 26*456 26 i 678 27f 139 28*558 28*640 29*861
New Investment Commitments:
Bit dol
*6. Now orders, durable goods industries
29.81
8. Construction contracts, total value
1967=100
145
•10. Contracts and orders for plant, aquipmtnt . . . Bil. dol
8.90
do
It. New capital appropriations, manufacturing . . .
5.76
do
24. New orders, cap. goods indus., nondafense . . .
7.39
Mil. sq. feet
9. Construction contracts, commercial
floor space
and industrial buildings.
61.19
Ann. rate, thous . . 2*052
26. New private housing units started, total
1967=100
*29. New building permits, private housing
167.9
NA
NA
NA
4.3
NA
NA
40.09
191
11.81
42.34
193
12.42
41,49
177
12.34
5.6
1.0
5,2
-2*0
-8.3
-0*6
10*46
10.04
10.92
10,59
8.8
-3*0
6.0
78,70
2*403
196.7
85.55
2.400
189.3
86.40
2*456
192.0
84.30
2*248
181.5
83,36
2*103
157*1
-0.5
-6.5
8,3
1.6
1,9
-0.1
-3.8
81.23
23.30
88.06
26.18
84*34
88.06
90.17
3.5
8,3
12.4
35.10
165
10.68
35.67
174
10.92
37.31
170
11.71
40.61
188
12.09
7,22
9,11
7.11
9.28
8.24
9,84
72,10
2*357
187.5
72.69
2*365
193.1
81,23
23,30
78.51
21,51
9.51
4.6
-2,3
7,2
15.9
-2.4
-8.5
-5.5
-13.4
10.6
3*2
15*4
6.3
8.7
9
28
29
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durabUt goods industries5
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.9
Bil.dol.,EOP ....
do
69.90
19,06
4.4
2*4
8.4
96
97
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Con.
Series title
Average
1971
1972
3dQ
4th Q
1972
1972
Mar.
1973
Feb.
1973
1stQ
1973
Apr.
1973
Feb.
Mar.
to
to
Mar.
1973
Apr.
1973
3dQ
to
4th Q
4th Q
to
IstQ
1972
1973
Series number
Percent change
Basic data
Unit
of
measure
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
D3. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
Ann.rate, bil.do). .
69. Machinery and equipment sates and business
construction expenditures
81.22
88.38
87-67
do
4.9
5,2
61
NA
3,9
6.3
69
NA
2,3
1,6
91.94 a96«74
107.00 123.01 123.36 128,17 136.30 134,79 137,01
NA
1.6
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in bus. inventories, at! indus.2
*31 Change mfg and trade inven bookvalm2
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories3
20. Change in mfrs.' inventories of materials,
supplies, book value3
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 80 days or longer3 rt&
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries3®
25 Chg in unfilled orders dur goods Indus 2
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
•71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value5
65 Mfrs ' inven of finished goods book value5
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
. . . do .
Percent .
...
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
Percent
do
Bil. dol
Bil.dot.,EOP ....
do
3.6
7.9
5.9
10.6
8.0
13.3
10.3
14.9
6,8
21.6
22,2
16*6
NA
-5.6
-3
50
55
53
65
61
63
59
56
0*4
1.0
3.0
2.0
4.6
5,3
3.2
NA
54
57
56
63
66
68
67
77
-1
10
48
-0.12
63
64
73
83
84
88
90
4
2
-1,62
0.94
1.15
0.91
2.28
1.76
3,72
2.10
-4
-2.1
1.96
NA
182.84 193.48 189.76 193.48 198,89 197.50 198.89
35.02 35.24 34.92 35.24
34.01 35.02 35.18
NA
NA
0.7
0.9
NA
NA
155.3
158.2
5,3
1.9
6.7
245
31
-3.5
-4
37
2.6
20
7
3
26
9
-0.24
10
32
25
12
-1.0
2.0
-0.5
1.37
2.8
0.6
71
65
85. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices® — ;
1967=100
107.1
Stock Prices:
*19 Stock prices 500 common stocks®
1941-43=10
98.29 109.20 109.20 114,04 115,00 114.16 112,42 110.27
Profits and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits, after taxes, current dol. . . . Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
18. Corporate prof its, after taxes, 1958 dollars . .
22. Ratio, profits to income originating in
Percent
corporate business2
15. Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.2 . . . Cents
1967=100
•17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, rrifg
34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars ....
Hn
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities®. . . 1967=100
55c. Chg. in whsle. prices, indus. commod., S/Aa . . Percent
1967=100
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®
.,
45.9
33.8
8.6
4.1
53.0
37.8
9.2
4.3
124.4
53.9
38,3
9.3
4.3
Dollars
1967=100
57.2
40.4
9.5
4.4
147.4
147.5
5,7
12.1
23
4.4
0.8
19
62,3
43.5
6.1
5.5
8,9
7.7
16
18
10.3
0,2
0.1
0.8
4.4
4.0
0.8
NA
2.3
5.8
4.6
22
15
17
34
35
0.6
0.9
1.8
0.6
3.3
55
55
58
NA
102.2
105.7
-1.5
101.7
104,2
103.8
2,5
121.3
1*0
123.6
122.7
1.2
125.7
124.4
1-3
126-7
1.2
0.2
1.7
-1.9
-0»4
98.8
94.3
66.0
99.1
95.7
66.7
99.9
99.9
69.4
114.0
0.3
113.8
117.9
0.3
117.9
118.4
0.3
118,5
119.1
0,2
119,6
121,3
0.8
123.6
123.4
125*8
125.5
126.5
128,6
0,8
1.7
63
0,856
121,1
121,7
0.4
0,3
1.3
1.0
68
62
-6.86
85
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
131.5
97.5
80.8
58.6
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
do
123.0
72.6
0.832
116.7
0*842
119.4
0,842
119,5
0.845
119.9
6.46
7.97
8.11
8.58
1.72
6.11
10.88
10.33
10.17
10.07
5.69
5.91
4.75
12.25
48.85
12.26
52.50
8.98
6.90
44.05
50.92
23.96
NA
41.58
24.53
NA
25,87
NA
120.5
1-4
0*1
0*8
-0.1
122.1
-1.0
7.48
-6.58
7.95
0.47
8.11
-1.16
3.36
-0,10
-4.38
102
8.29
-2.08
1.39
NA
NA
-9.34 -15.71
0.57
NA
-0.85
-2.86
NA
22.38
1.9
103
32
112
113
110
-32.8
-0.10
14
39
775
93
1.3
B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
85 Change in money supply (Ml } 2
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits
at commercial banks (M2)2
103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at
banks and nonbank institutions (M3)2
33 Change in mortgage debt2
112 Change in business loans2
*1 13 Change in consumer installment debt2
Ann.rate.percent . .
do
do
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
do
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted4)® . . Mil. dol
39. Delinquency rate, install rt»nt loans (inv.4)3 s . Percent, EOP ....
ROUGHL Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted4),4®
Interest Rates:
114 Treasury bill rate3®
116 Corporate bond yields2®
115 Treasury bond yields3®
117. Municipal bond vifllds3rfli
Mil. dol
Percent
do .
do
do
8.55
11.41
54.10
NA
6.71
16.43
38.81
6.70
1.65
16.09
15.91
19.51 23.96
8.98
130.45 153.22 154.83 178,59 181*94
12.71
36.19
-0.47
159.74 166,69 190.59 149.45 198.45 137.16 252.35 119.34
2.02
NA
NA
2,02
1.92
1.92
1.92
1.68
-84.0
NA
-1*258 -It388 -1»563 -It564
175
-207
-128
-197
-483
4.34
7.85
5.74
5.48
4.07
7.59
5,64
5.26
4.24
7.68
5.63
5.36
4.85
7.54
5.61
5.08
5,64
7.68
6.10
5.16
5,56
7.67
6.14
5,13
6.05
7.75
6*20
5.29
6.29
7,71
6.11
5.15
0.49
0.08
0.06
0.16
52.7
NA
1
1.60
9,72
3,42
15.3
21.6
0.00
286
0.24
0.61
-0.04
-0,09
-0.14
-0.14
-0,02
-0.28
4,45
0.79
0.14
0.49
0.08
114
116
115
117
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes tor Principal Indicators—Con.
Basic data
Unit
of
measure
Series title
Percent change
Average
1971
1972
3dQ
1972
4th Q
1972
IstQ
1973
Feb.
1973
Mar.
1973
Apr.
1973
Feb.
to
Mar.
1973
Mar.
to
Apr,
19/3
3d Q
to
4th Q
1972
4th (1
16
1st Q
1073
1
1
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
Btl. Money and Credit-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Otbt:
66, Consumtr installment debt5
*72, Commercial and industrial loans outstanding .
Bil.dol.,EOP ....
Bit dol
Intsnst RatOK:
*67. Bank nttes on short-term business loans2®. . .
116. Mortgage yields, residential2©
do
NA
108.53 124.44 119*56 124.44 130.43 128,38 130*43
84.30 87.25 86*94 90.67 97*89 98.15 101.61 103.77
1.6
3.5
NA
2*1
4.1
4.3
4.8
8.Q
66
72
6.32
7.70
5.82
7.53
5*84
7.55
6.33
7.57
6.52
7.58
67
7,63
7.73
0,07
0.10
0.49
0.02
0,19
7.56
-160
3*634
It 454
246
3t794
-528
4*102
1*716
352
4*630
-489
4*143
It 896
387
4*632
-508
4t450
1*928
385
4*958
-278
5*141
2*278
401
5*418
-476
5*065
2*248
408
5*541
-53
5*380
2*281
413
5(432
196
S»487
NA
NA
5(291
423
6.2
1.5
1.2
-2.0
249
2*0
NA
NA
«2*6
-19
7.4
1.7
-0.5
7.0
230
IS. 5
18.2
4.E
9.3
500
502
506
5Q8
512
750
-195
-706
-2t321
-5*502
-7»442
-4(219
-1*445
-1*997
-2*312
-3*478
-2*584
208
306
NA
160
164
NA
823
NA
401 -2*701
3*058 -8*611
250
513
517
519
521
52 a
-21.7
199.1
220.8
71.4
6*788
1(769
1.86
2i775
-18*1
228*6
246*8
75*9
7»H1
1*732
1.93
3*002
-11.8
229.8
241.6
75.1
7*258
1(822
1.76
2*823
-24*3
238.4
262.7
73.2
6*828
1*510
1,76
2*994
-7.5
252.5
260,0
75.0
7*376
1*865
2.04
2(963
...
...
...
7*705
2*042
1.96
2*879
7(418
1*787
2.25
3(185
NA
NA
2,17
NA
-3*6
NA
-12.5
3.7
8.7
-2.S
-5.9
-17.1
0.0
6.1
16. B
5.9
-1.0
2,5
8.0
23,5
15,9
-1,0
600
601
602
264
616
621
648
625
136.6
121.3
0.3
113.9
140.9
125.3
0.3
119.1
141.3
125.8
0.4
119.9
142.4
126*9
0.3
121.2
145.0
128,7
0.7
127.0
128.6
0*7
126*9
129.8
0.9
129.7
130*7
0*6
130*7
0.9
0.2
2.2
0.7
-0«3
0*8
0.3
0.9
-0.1
1.1
1,8
1*4
0*4
4.8
211
731
781
7£G
129.6
137.9
138.5
141.1
142.7
142.5
143.2
144.1
0,5
0.6
1.9
1.1
740
106.9
110.0
110.2
111.1
110.8
110*7
110*4
110*2
-0.3
-0»2
0*8
-0.3
741
92.51
131.8
108.6
108.1.
107.1
96.31
140.1
111.9
112,7
112.1
96.55
140.9
112.0
113.3
113.1
97*08
143.3
112.9
114.6
114.1
95*93
147.0
114,2
116.0
115.3
96*08
95.90
96.19
-0.2
0*3
0.5
1.7
0,8
1.1
0.9
-1.2
2.6
1.2
1*2
1.1
859
745
746
770
858
0.1
-1*2
0.4
0.7
4.7
0.5
0.3
4.6
841
342
843
NA
1,8
-2.7
1*1
-2.7
850
851
NA
o.o
0.0
2.5
0.0
3.2
852
853
18.8
-13.2
854
12,6
-0.2
13.1
0.1
860
857
o.oi us
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D1. Foreign Trade
600
502
506.
508.
512.
Merchandise trade balance2
Mil dol
Exports excluding military aid
do
Export erdars, dur. goods exc. motor vehicles .
do
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
1957-59=100 ..,.
General imports
Mil. dol
250.
515,
517.
519.
521.
522
Balance on goods and services2
Bat on goods, services and remittances2
Balance on current account2 .,,,,,,
Balance on curr. acct. and long-term capital2 .
Net liquidity balance2
Official ressrve transactions balance2
02. U.S. Balance of Payments
Mil dol
do
do
do
do
do
-864
-656
-350
-1*232 -1*072
NA
-1*770 -1(606
NA
-2*346 -1(523
NA
-4 i 501 -4t 100 -6*801
- 4 t 6 7 4 -1(616 •10*227
03. Federal Government Activities
600.
601.
602
264
616.
621.
648.
625
Federal surplus or deficit, NIA2
Federal receipts, NIA
Federal expenditures NIA
National defsnse purchases
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Department obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products
Military cont 'act awards in U S.
Ann.rate.bil.dol. .
do
do
do
Mil. dol
do
Bil. dol
Mil. dol
...
...
NA
NA
-3.7
-12.5
14,8
10.6
04. (Vice Movements
21 1 . Fixed wtd. price index, gross priv. product . .
781. Consumer prices, all items®
781c. Change in consumer prices, all items, S/A2 ...
760. Wholesale prices, all commodities®
. 1958=100
1967=100
Percent
1967=10tf
D5. Wages and Productivity
740. Averaoe hourly earnings, production workers
in private nonfarm economy
do
741. Real average hourly earnings, production
do
workers in private nonfarm economy
859. Real spendable tvg. weekly earnings,
nortagri. prod, of nonsupv. workers
1987 dol
745. Avg, hourly compensation, private nonfarm . . 1987=100
do
746. Real avg, hourly somp., private nonfarm
770. Output per man-hour, total private economy .
do
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm . .
do
06. Civilian La tor Force and Major
Components
841. Total civilian labon force
Thousands
.... do
842, Total civilian employment
843. Number of persons unemployed (inverted)4 . .
do
87*113 86*542 86*868 87*175 87 f 586 87»569 88i268 88*350
79*120 81*702 82*033 82*567 83 » 190 83 » 127 83*889 83*917
4*993 4*840 4 * 8 3 5 4*608 4*396 4 * 4 4 2 4 * 3 7 9 4*433
0.8
0.9
1*4
o.o
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2 ...
851. Ratio, inventories tc> sales, mfg. and trade —
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufecturers* dunble goods industries ....
853. Ratio, prod., bus. equip, to consumer goods . .
854. Ratio, personal savin js to disposable
porsonol income
860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to
persons unemployeG
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing2®
Percent
Ratio
75.0
1.60
77.9
1.51
78.4
1.50
80*2
1.46
81,3
1*42
1,42
1.41
NA
do
1967=100
2.70
83.6
2.54
84*8
2.56
84.9
2.56
87.0
2.56
89.8
2,54
90*0
2.62
89.9
NA
89.9
0.082
0*069
0.064
0.076
0.066
0.487
5.4
0.620
5*6
0.642
5.8
0.723
5.6
0.818
5.7
Ratio
do
Percent
0.798
0.823
0.819
-0.7
3.1
-0.1
3.1
-0.5
:
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by®, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. "Series included in the 19fi6 NBER "short list" of indicators. NA not available, a anticipated,
EOP = end of period. S/A*seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). For complete series titles (including composition of composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" in the back of BCD.
1
For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual figures are
those published by the source agencies; otherwise, they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series) are averages of the data as shown in part II.
^Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
Index for the latest month excludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113, for which data are not yet available.
^Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
8
AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL
Chart Al
(July)
P
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Hay) (Feb.)
P T
200. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
205. GNP in 1958 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)
210. Implicit price deflator, Q (index: 1958-100)
capita GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, thous. dol.)
capita GNP in 1958 dollars
{ann. rate, tbous. dol.)
;' 54
§§
56
57
58
SS
60
SI
62
63
64
65
60
67
68
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
MAY 1973
9
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A2
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
(July)
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
1 1100-
220. national income, current dollars, Q (ann. rate, oil. dol.)
224. Disposable personal
23. Disposable personal income, 1958 dollars,
Q (ann. rate, bil. do!.)
1S51 53
94
55
5i
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 19 '4
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
10
MAY 1973
B€l»
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A3
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
(July) (tag.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Fib.)
P T
232. Durable goods, total, current dollarsTB
1952 53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
63
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
7i
73 1974
Current data for thege series are shown on page 70.
MAY 1973
11
Section A
[jChart
(July)
P
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
(July) (Apr.)
P I
(Aug.)
T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Annual rate, bit lion dollars
uross private aomesiic mvesimem
241. Nonresidential fixed investment, total, Q
242. Nonresidential structures, Q
243. Producers' durable equipment, Q
244. Residential structures, Q
245. Change in business inventories, Q
1952 53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for those series ore shown on page 70.
12
MAY 1973
Section A
Chart A5
(July)
P
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
FOREIGN TRADE
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
250. Net exports of goods and services, 0
+10-
252. Exports of goods and services, Q
253. Imports of goods and services, Q
SDil il
1^
li>
§d
W3
©?
dl
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
BCII
MAY 1973
13
Section A
NATIONAL
Chart A6 j
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
AND
.) (Kov.)
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
Governrnefit purchases of goods ami services281. Federal, State, and local governments, Q
264. National defense, Q
266. State and local governments,
Current data for those series are shown on pctgo 71.
14
MAY 1973
KCII
Section A
Chart A7
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
270. Final sales, durable goods, Q
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods, Q
274. Final sates, nondurable goods,
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods, Q
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
KCII
MAY 1973
15
Sedtion A
Chart A8 I NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
(fcsty)
P
(Aug.)
T
F
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
284. Rental income of persons, Q
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment, Q
Current data for these series are shown on pages Tt and 72.
16
MAY 1973
IUII
Section A
Chart A9
SAVING
P
(Wo«.) (Wow.)
P
T
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current)
290. Gross saving (private and government), Q
292. Personal saving, 8
plus inventory valuation adjustment, Q
296. Capital consumption allowances, 0
Government surplus or deficit, Q
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.
BCD
MAY 1973
17
l Section A
NATIONAL
Chart A10
REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
P
AMD
(Kow.) (Nov.)
[p
T
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (1958)
273. Final sales, 1358 dollars, Q
246. Change in business inventories, 1958 dollars, Q
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, 1958 dollars, Q
247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, 1958 dollars, Q
248. Fixed investment, residential structures, 1958 dollars, Q
261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, 1958 dollars, Q
249. Gross auto product, 1958 dollars, Q
Current data for thtiso ««rtei are shown on pages 69, 70, and 72,
18
MAY 1973
KCII
Section A
All
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Gross National Product Shares
(JuW
F
(Aug.)
T
(July) (%L)
P T
(to.) (Wow.)
P
T
230A. Personal consumption expenditures as percent of GNP, Q
241ft, Fixed investment, nonresidential,
as percent of GNP, Q
HBArfnhral
of goods and services as percent of GNP, Q
266A. State and local government
purchases of goods and services
trprceRtiWfiNP, «r ~
£--
244A. Fixed investment, residential structures as percent of GNP, Q
T™"
= 250F Net
as percent of GHP, Q
3"
245A.
National Income Shares
280A. Compensation of employees as percent of national income, Q
282A. Proprietors' income as
"^" ""percent of national income, fl
\
288A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation
-—• adjiistinentasTiercent ofnational tenw/f'
....
interest as percent of nationTinc
iS
i^
ii
ii
i^
§§
if
mm
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
BCII
MAY 1973
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
t:
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
CharMs
Leading Indicators
(July)
(Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
.
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
Marginal Employment Adjustments
1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing (hours)
p WBkly overtime flours, production workers
^^
*1
mi *
Q
3. layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees-inverted scale)
e
Current data for the to series are shown on page 74.
20
MAY 1973
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart Bl
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
50. Number of job vacancies, mfg. (thousands)
46. Kelp-wanted advertising (index: 1967=100)
Man-hours in nonagricultura! establishments (ann. rate, bil. man-hours)
11. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions)
42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural
activities (millions)
1952
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 75.
ItCIt
MAY 1973
21
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart BlJ EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Aug.)
(Jy« (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.) (Now.)
(May) (Feb.)
P T
Comprehensive Unemployment
*43. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale)
3
4
5-
8
7-
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale)
40. Unemployment rate, married males
D
Lagging Indicators
Long-Duration Unemployment
*44. Uneiployment rate, parsons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)
Q
1952 S3
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
71
73 1974
Current data for the*o series are shown on page 75.
22
MAY 1973
ItCII
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart B2
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
toughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
P
(Wow.)
P
T
T
I Comprehensive Production
*200. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate,
*205. GNP in 1958 dollars.
Q (ann. rate, bit. dot
47. Industrial production (index: 1987
52. Personal income (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
53. Wages and salaries in mining
manufacturing, construction
(ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1952
53
§4
57
§8
59
62
63
64
65
71 1974
Note: For this economic process (I.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
IICII
MAY 1973
23
Section B
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B2"] PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July) (teg.)
P
I
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales (bil. dol.)
a
D
4® -
D
14'
54
BS
BS
S7
il
62
84
iS
ii
§7
SS
71
72
1974
NOTE: For th.s economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
24
MAY 1973
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart B3
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(JuW
(Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Fab.)
P- T
Formation of Business Enterprises
*12. Net business formation (M»r 196MWT
13. New business incorporations (thousands)
•23
6. New orders, durable goods industries (Ml. doi.)
Construction contracts, total value (index: 1967-100;
MCO moving avg.--5-term)1
~~~~
—
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment (bil. dol.)
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.
BCII
MAY 1973
25
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B3 I FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Kow.) (Nov.)
P
T
New Investment Commitments-Con.
11. Hew capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bit. dol.)1
Q
A
24. Manufacturers1 new orders, capital goods industries,
nondefense (bil. dol.)
a
9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial (mil. sq. fl
of floor area; MCD moving avg.-B-term}1
a
28. New private housing units started, totat (atnt. rate, mtilrons
MCD moving avg.-5-term)
"29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1967=100)
i4
SS
Si
li
30 il
it
6S
71
72
Vhls !* o copyrighted cerlnc usoel by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.
Current data for these sores are shown on pages 77 and 78.
26
MAY 1973
Section B
Chart B3
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July) (%L)
Pay) (Feb.)
Backlog of Investment Commitments
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable pods industries (bil. doi.)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bii. dot.)1
10 =
Lagging Indicators
Investment Expenditures
*61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q (ann. rate, bil. tfol.)
Machinery and equipment sales and business construction
expenditures (ann. rate, bil. dol.
1952 S3
§4
55
56
57
58
59
SO
61
73 1974
'This fs a copyrighted seHes used by permission; it may .not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.
BCII
MAY 1973
27
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
B4
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Leading Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
T
P
.) (Nov.)
T
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
245. Change" in business inventories, 8
+1)0
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
— (ann. rate. till, dol; MOD moving avg.-5-term) -—™
iSeiWrperceiir^^
+$l)~
+20
75 •
invirhrifis
s liTBof value, manufacturers' liMwiiTMafefiairii"
(ann. rate, bil. dot.; MCB moving avg.--6-term)
"i,.
•
Ik
" " ""
H
• . i ••- i " TJ"'
M Ail.
A N,
Ik''
26. Buying policy, production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer
a
75-
25 J
1952
53
1)4
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
57
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data lor theso series are shown on pages 76 and 79.
28
MAY 1973 IM Jl
Section B
Chart
B4
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Juty)
(July) (for.
P I
P
T
(Now.) (Hoy.)
F
T
Inventory Investment and Purchasing-Con.
=
1BL" Veiiof perforrSici; percent oflilpK reporting llower deliveries
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(kil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
D
Lagging Indicators
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. dol.)
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (bil. do!.)
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series ore shown on page 79.
licit
MAY 1973
29
Section B
Chart
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
B5
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Leading Indicators
«)
(May) (Feb.)
(Aug.)
P
T
Sensitive Commodity Prices
*23. industrial materials prices (index: 1967=100)
Stock Prices
*19. Stock prices, 500 CORMHM stocks (iidex: 1941-43=10)
Profits and Profit Margins
*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (m. rate, HI. dol.)
D
22. M, profits (after tarn) to mm origi
in corporate business, 8 (percent)
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, raamifacturiiig, 0 (cents)
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index: 1967-100)
D
Current data for these series are shown on pages 79 and 60.
30
MAY 1973
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B5
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
P
T
P
I
Cash Flows
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices
55. Wholesale prices, industrial
(index: 1967=160)
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (index: 1367-100)
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
KCII
MAY 1$73
31
Section B
WC^TOii
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B5 I PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.
Lagging Indicators
Unit Labor Costs
Unit labor cost, total private economy63. Index, Q (1967=100)
63c. Change over 1-quarter spans, Q (ann. rate, percent)
68. Labor cost (curr. dot.) per unit of real corporate product, Q (dollars)
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
(index: 1967=100)
Current data for th«sst series are shown on page 80,
32
MAY 1973
ItCII
Section B
Chart B6
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT
Leading Indicators
(Wow.)
Flows of Money and Credit
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks (M2)
(aim. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.«6-term)
103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at banks and
nonbank institutions (M3) (ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
Change in money supply (M1) (ann. rate
' "^^ " A
; MCD moving avg.--6-term) ]
t
33. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate,tail.doi.
112. Change in business loans (ann. rate, bil. dol.;
avg.--6-term) *~
Current data lor these series are shown on page 81.
II MAY 1973
DigitizedIN
for ^
FRASER
33
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
| Chart B(T] MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(J«W (Apr.)
P T
(May) {Fife.)
P T
Flows of Money and Credit-Con.
*113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
110. Total private borrowing, 0 (m rate, bil. dot.)
C edit Difficulties
14. Liabilities of business failures (mil. doL-inverted scale; MOD moving avg.-6-term)
39. Qelimpncy rate, 30 days and over, total installment loans (percent-inverted scale)
Current data for 3hese series are shown on page 81.
34
MAY 1973
KCII
Section B
Chart B6
WQCATO^S Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(My) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (%i.
P T
(Wbv.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (fab.)
P T
Free reserves (bil. dol.-inverted scale)
114. Treasury bill rate (percent)
116. Corporate bond yields (percent)
115. Treasury bond yields (percent)
117. Municipal bond yields (percent)
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
MAY 1973
DigitizedBCD
for FRASER
35
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B6
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT— Con.
^]
Lagging Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
P
(Nov.) (Nov.)
T
Outstanding Debt
140'
66. Consumer installment debt (bit. dot.)
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks (bil. dot.)
$31
Interest Rates
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans,
0 (percent)
D
s1
118. Mortgage yields, residential (percent)
V-
§3 B4 ss
m
<8a
Current data fcr these ferfe* are shown on page 82.
36
MAY 1973
!!€!»
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B7
COMPOSITE INDEXES
(July) (Apr,)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
810. Twelve leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted1
(series 1,5,6,10,12,16,17; 19,23,29,31,113)
"2
Five coincident indicators, estimated
aggregate economic activity820. Original index
(series 41, 43,47,52,
830. Six lagging indicators
(series 44,61, 82, 87,71,72)
1948
49
90
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
63
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates,
1
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the Index of 5 coincident indicators
ItCII
MAY 1973
37
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Selected Indicators by Timing
[ Chart B7 ] COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.
(July) ( A M R )
P
!
(Msv.) (Oct.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
811. Twelve leaders, prior to trend adjustment
(series 1,5, B, ID, 12,16,17,19,23,29,31,113)
Leading Indicator Subgroups
813. Marginal employment adjustments
a
814. Capital investment commitments (series E, 10,12,29)
815. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 23,25,31,37)
D
816. Profitability (series 16,17,19)
Current data for these series are shown on page 83.
38
MAY 1973
BUI
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
Chart
B 8 J NBER SHORT LIST
Leading Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
F
(Nov.) (Nov.
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
42 T
*1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing (hours)
*5. Average weekly initials claims, State unemployment
insurance (thousands-inverted scale)
*12. Net business formation (index: 1967-100)
*6. New orders, durable goods industries (bit. dol
*1Q. Contracts and orders, plant
and equipment (bit. dol.)
29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1WMUU)
1948 49
50
51
5i
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73 1974
Current data for these series are shown on pages 74, 77, and 78.
lien
MAY 1973
39
Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
[ Chart B8 J NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(Ksw.)
3 (Oct.)
i
r
(Jiity) (Aug.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
7
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
120«
*23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1967=100)
MS«
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43-10)
16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
D
*113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil
Current dcria for those series are shown on pages 78, 79, 60, and 81,
40
MAY 1973
!!€!»
Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
Chart B8
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
52. Personal income (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
*47. Industrial production (index: 1967=100):
116. Manufacturing and trade sales (bil. dol.)
54. Sales of retail stores (bil. dol.)
41. Employees on nonagricultural
payrolls (millions)
*43. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale)
Current data for these series are shown on pages 75 and 76.
ltd*
MAY 1973
41
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
Section B
[Chart B8 1 NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(July) (Apr,)
P
T
(July) (Aup)
P
I
Kav.) (Oct.)
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
P
I!
*44. Unemployment rate, persoas unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)
*61. Business expenditures, m plant and equipment, Q (am. rate, bil. dot
ni<
tillbfl-^ - -^
~H
2JW-
2110180-
—,_ , ._.,
160-
,_:™
140,
-~—-
1?0-
— —|
130-
Z6
120-
^^
~-H^
15>5'
113'
11^
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, raanofactiripg (index: 1967=100)
^.,,_.^ .,__
10!j ^
y
*67. Bank rales on short-term business loans, Q (percent)
1948 49
90
51
52
83
§4
gg
gg
57
58
g9
60
61
62
63
64
66
67
68
70
71
72
73 1974
Current d.rtci for these series ore shown on pages 75, 78, 79, 80, and 62.
42
MAY 1973
IICII
Chart Cl
AGGREGATE SERIES
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
P
T
fastness expenditures for new plant
and eqBiflment, all industries, fl _
(a) Actual expenditures (ann. rate, Ml. dol.)
I
(6) Second anticipations as percent of actual (percent!
P
0
1
1 I.TI6 6 T?
6 1 6
1 J T?
n
*
i
0
0
?
<j>
O
*
<4
i i'i
*
I
<!>
°
Ulil!il=j
(c) First anticipations as percent of actual (percent)
c
lit
*
fit -*JO/IT
v
"
\,ji
ri
f
- - "i' "imi
1KH
°
6
°
^d©^
Di«=
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
KCII
MAY 19*3
43
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Section C
Chart
Cl I AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
) (Nov.)
P
T
410. Manufacturers' sales, total value, Q (bil. dol.)
180'
1140*
ma
412. Manufacturers' inventories, total book value,
Q (bil. dol.)
im)
414. Condition of manufacturers' inventories: percent considered I
considered low, $ (percent) — —
416. _Adequacyjf manufacturers' capacity: percent considered
"~ "fnaSequatTfess"peFcent considered excessive,
Q (percent-inverted scale)
3195?
iS
59
60
61
§2
63
64
iS
66
67
68
70
71
72
73
74
1975
Current data for th JSG series are shown on page 84.
44
MAY 1973
Section C
Chart
Cl
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
P
(Nov.) (Mov.)
T
T
420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago, Q
(a) Percent of households reporting no change in family income
(b) Percent of households reporting higher family income (percent)
(c) Percent of households reporting lower family income (percent)
425. Mean probability of substantial changes in income of households, Q
.
"*•'••-.
•"*•-./
*>../
(a) Mean probability of increase in family income (percent) .../""*
:
> •
V'
•.
(b) Increase less decrease (percent) ^ ,\ V.;.xV\ A
(c) Mean probability of decrease in family income (percent)............
41. Number of new cars purchased by households, Q
(ann. rate, mil. aars)
_____
(b) Actual, 2-quarter moving avg.
(d) Anticipations as percent of actual data (percent) T
: . -_lBt'
T — --^•-
n
• 1 -[ T ; ; ; ; ; ; <!
"
435. Index of consumer sentiment, 0 (1st. Q 1966=100)
>
/
.....v^^-.^.^.^^,.
"s^r
Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
BCII
MAY 1973
45
Settion C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES
(Nov.) (Km)
(May) (Feb.)
DHtasiM indexes: percent rising
(pletM at terminal parlor)
D61. Business exptditires for new plant and epptnt, all indistrte (1-Q span)
Actoal expidllnres
(bT Second aticipatiofls
(C) First anticipation
D440. New orders, mamfactiring (4-Q spas)1
D442. Net profits, mawtfactiriRg and trade (4-Q span)
D444. Hel sales, raajiufacttjriHg aid trade (4»Q stiao)1
D446. Number of employees, raanafactiring and trade (4-1
:
~- -f
/—^s^.-^****"***
^-7
~ *ph
Current data fot1 these series are shown on page 85.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
46
MAY 1973
HCII
Section C
Chart C2
P
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
T
J
Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal (patter)
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)
0466. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)1
V
ii
6? §8
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
MAY 1973
IICII
47
Chart Dl
FOREIGN TRADE
D
502. Exports,
Q
Q
SOB. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
(index: 1957-5HOO; MCO moving ave.-4-term)
JlfJSg 81!
m
Sg
m
W/
Si
3©
d©
Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
48
MAY 1973
KCII
Section D
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Chart D2
p
I
210. Balance on goods and services
515. Balance on goods, services, and remittances
517. Balance on current account
519. Balance on current account
and long-term capital
521. Net liquidity balance
522. Official reserve transactions balance
Current data for these series are shown on page 87.
BCII
MAY 1973
49
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2 I BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
(Aug.)
T
P
(New.) (Nov.)
P
T
I
Major Components, Except Military Grants
of Goods and Services
44
530. Liquid liabilities to all foreigners, outstanding at end of period
foreign official agencies, outstanding at
534. U.S. official reserve assets-reserve position at end of period
S3
§4
SS
§§
il
62
S3
ii
66
§7
§8
it
70
71
72
73 1974
Currant data for thate series are shown on page 87. End of year figures are used prior to I960.
50
MAY 1973
IICII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
(July) (Aug.)
P
f.) (Nov.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
T
P
P
T
T
Goods and Services Movements,
Except Transfers Under Military Grants
Excess of receipts
•Excess of payments
Merchandise, adjusted538. Exports
miGdUUGiii muuiiiG, imiiuHj oaii/o
S///////
a
and expenditures, and other *rimr-jz#&&"
**'
1
_».«* j^rsaw^* ;
§4
ss
ii 59
__
64
65
66
Current data for these series are shown on page 87. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
KCII
MAY 1973
51
Section D
KEY INDICATORS
Chart _DjT] BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
P
T
Annual rate, billion dollars
Investment Income, Military Sales
and Expenditures, and Other Services
Investment income-
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.
Travel-
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.
Military sales and expenditures547. U.S. military expenditures abroad
Transportation and other services-
f=f=
@©
f^sy
©<7
Curren:; data for those serlei are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to I960.
52
MAY 1973
BUI
Section D
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Chart D2
P
(July) (Apr.
P T
T
P
(Wto.)
P
T
T
Annual rate, billion dollars
Capital Movements Plus Government
Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Excess of receipts (inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
Direct investments561. U.S. investments abroad
=$4 =
5607 Fdmgnlnveslmenff ili (fieIX
Securities investments565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net
2J)il li
i#
li
id
WJ
1§
iD
i©
©H
il
Current data for these series are shown on page 88C Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
KCII
MAY 1973
53
Section 0
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D3
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
[July) (Apr.)
Uu!y)
P I
(Nw.) (Nov.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Receipts and Expenditures
600. Federal si|lt$ or deficit, natiosal income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
601. Federal receipts, national lucerne aid product accounts, Q (m. raKUtt. Ml
602. Federal expenditures, nalioaal income aid product accounts, Q (asn. rate, liLJol
SS
S4
S5
Si
S7
Si
61
67
i§
Si
71
72
Current data for those seriet are shown on page 89.
54
MAY 1973
RCII
Section D
Chart D3
P
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
T
P
(Wow.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
Defense Indicators
264. Nation¥ defense purchases,
Defense Department obligations, total
(bil. do I.; MCD moving avg.~6-tenn)
621. Defense Department obligations, procurement
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.--6-term)
647. New orders, defense products industries
625. Military contract awards in U.S.
rtt; tlCfr^ni^
r
SI
62
S3
S4
65
Current data for these series are shown on page 89.
KCII MAY
1973
55
Section D
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS
211. Fixed weighted price index, gross private product
(variable weights prior to 1965), Q (index: 195NH)
Q
0
D
211c. Change in fixed weighted price index, gross private product,
over 1-quarter spans, Q (ann. rate)
781c. Change in consumer price index, all items (seasonally adj.)Six-month spans (ann. rate)
t l
, j\
One-month spans1
V)no- month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annual (zed changes over 6- month spans.
See basic da::a table for actual 1 -month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
56
MAY 1973
BCII
Section D
Chart D4
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.
(My)
P
T
Index: 1967*100
Wholesale prices
D
D
751. Processed foods and feeds
55c. Change in wholesale price index, industrial commodities (seasonally adj.)-
'One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 91.
ItCII MAY
1973
57
Section D
SCEY
Chart D5 I WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
(Aug.)
I
IP
T
o
Average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfari economy (annual data prior to 1964)-740. Curreit dellar earnings (iidex: 1967=100)
741. Real earnings (index: 1967=100)
Real spendable avg. weekly earnings, loaagrf. production
or nonsupervisory workers (1967 dollars)
D
D
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm KMMV--
745. Current dollar compensation, 0
(index: 1967=100)
746. Real compensation,
Q (index: 1967=100)
770. Output per man-hour, total private
economy, Q (index: 1967=100)
858. Output per man-hour, total private nwfarm,
Q (index: 1967-100)
14
Si
S©
S?
ii
Current data for hc*e series are shown on pages 92 and 93.
58
MAY 1973
Section D
Chart
D5
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.
f.) (Nov.)
T
(July)
P
I
P
T
Change In avg. Burly earnings of pfoiclion workers,
private nontara economy, adj.1- j
Six-month spans (aim. rate)
740c. Current dollar earnings
741c. Real earnings
Cfiange in avg. hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy, Q--
Six-montfi spans (ann. rate)
745c. Current dollar compensation
1
One-quarter span '(ami. rafef
,,,,,,/..
\x
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries--
748. First year avg. changes, Q (ann. rate).
Productivity
749. Average changes over life of
contract, Q (ann. rate)
S 770c. Change in output per man-hour, total private economy, Q
I
One-quarter span (ami rate)
Four-quarter span
Adjusted for overtime (In manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonal I ty. 20ne-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant [12) so that they may be shown against
the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans. See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.
ItCII MAY
1973
59
Section D
Chart D6
CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Civilian Labor Force
a
a
a
aisg si
so §s §©
B'? g®
si
Current data for these series arc shown on page 94.
60
MAY 1973
ltd*
Chart El
ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July)
(July)'(Apr.)
P
T
P I
(Wow.) (Nov.)
P
T
Gross National Product in 1958 dollars, Q
(ann. rate,fill,dor.)
"
1
Current data for these series arje shown on page 95.
Trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line In middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent frorr
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and 4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to 1 st quarter 1973.
KCII
MAY 1973
61
Section E
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Chart
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
E2
P
T
K Mlpt jOnclSZiaittfactifJRf, Ql§ei
o
_. 85L RaUo, iiveotQfies to sales, ifif&iittiii.*(.to*, (ratio)
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
fflaflufacturers' durable goods iatkistnes (ratio)
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods
(Wex: 1967=100)
854. Ratio, p&rstmal saving to disposable personl \mmt 8 (ratio)
Ratio, help-wanted advertising to number
Of persons unemployed (ratio)
Q
857. Vacancy rate in tola)
rental housing, Q (jwrcsnt)
19SI I&U
§4
Si
S©
S?
i©
ii
Current data for these series ore shown on page 96.
62
MAY 1973
BCII
Section E
Chart E3
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
P
T
(Wo«.) (Wov.)
P
T
D1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing--21 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-nto. span-
06. New orders, durable goods industries-SB industries (9-mo. span —, 1-mo, span—-)
D11. Newly approved capital appropriations-!? industries (3-0 span—, 1-Q span—)1
D34. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher proftts-about 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-Q span)
D19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks--?? industries (9-mo. span —, 1-mo. span— -)
D23. Industrial materials prices-13 industrial materials (9-mo. span —, 1-mo. span-—)
D5. Initial claims, State unemployment jnsurance-47 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span —, 1-mo. span
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 97 and 98.
KCII
AW
MAY 1973
63
Section E
Chart
E3
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(May) (Fsb.)
D41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls-30 industries (6-tno. span — , 1-mo. span-—)
047. Industrial protiuction-24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)
D
DM. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods™22 industries (6-mo. span — , 1-mo. span—-)
054. Sales of retail stores-23 types of stores (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. spai—-)
flfflh
WJ)%
yg
SO
gy
S(3
W/I
y©
Sg)
B
d©
Cut-rent data for t.wse series arc shown on page 98.
64
MAY 1973
ltd)
Section E
Chart
E5
RATES OF CHANGE
.) (Kw.)
P
Percent change, annual rate
T
200. (c) GNP in current dollars (1-Q span)
(c) GNP in constant dollars (1-Q span)
index of 5 coincident indicators (series 41,43,47,52,56)
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
D
47. Index of industrial production
g§
If)
i©
iH
dl
©1
©4
ii
©§
§77
©i
il
To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult 'Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide/ pp, 119, 120, and 121.
MAY 1973
65
DM
Fr.
£
Chart Fl
Section
Lit.
F
INTERNATIONAL
CONSUMER PRICES
(Jdy) (Apr.)
P
I
«{Feb.)
P
T
Consumer prices-
Current data for thew series are shown on page 103.
66
MAY 1973
ItCII
Section F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart F2
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
P
T
(Kov.)
P
T
Industrial production--
Current data for these series are shown on pages 103 and 104.
ItCII
MAY 1973
67
Section F
Chart F3
I! STOCK PRICES
Current data for these series are shown on page 104.
68
MAY 1973
ItCIt
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
a. Total
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
210. Implicit price deflator
205. Constant (1958) dollars
200. Current dollars
b. Difference
Total
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
a. Total
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
b. Difference
(Index:
1958-100)
(Index:
1958=100)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
1970
958.0
971.7
986.3
989.7
+9.1
+13-7
+14.6
+3.4
+3-9
+5.9
+6.1
+1.4
720.4
723.2
726.8
718.0
-4.7
+2.8
+3.6
-8.8
-2.5
+1.5
+2.0
-4-8
133.0
134.4
135.7
137.8
+2.1
+1.4
+1.3
+2.1
+6.5
+4-3
+4.0
+6.5
1,023.4
1,043.0
1,056.9
1,078.1
+33.7
+19.6
+13-9
+21.2
+14.3
+7.9
+5.4
+8.3
731.9
737.9
742.5
754.5
+13-9
+6.0
+4.6
+12.0
+8.0
+3.4
+2.5
+6.7
139.8
141-3
142-4
142.9
+2.0
+1.5
+1.1
+0.5
+5.9
+4.4
+2.9
+1.5
1,109.1
1,139.4
1,164.0
1,194.9
+31.0
+30.3
+24.6
+30.9
+12.0
+11.4
+12.0
+17.4
+12.2
+15.5
+6.5
+9.4
+6.3
+8.0
145.3
H6.2
147.2
+1.8
+0.7
+0.9
+1.0
+5.1
+1.8
+11.0
766.5
783.9
796.1
811.6
rl,237.9
r+43.0
r+15.2
r827.3
r+15.7
r+8.0
r!49.6
r+2.4
r+6.6
First quarter ...
Second quarter ,
Third quarter..,
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
+8.9
+2.4
+2.3
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT-Con.
Year
and
quarter
215. Per capita
GNP, current
dollars
217. Per capita
GNP, constant
(1958) dollars
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
220. National
income in current dollars
222. Personal
income in current dollars
Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann, rate, dol.)
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
4,694
4,749
4,807
4,809
3,530
3,535
3,542
3,489
787.5
796.7
806.3
804.1
785.7
806.1
813.4
819.8
667.9
687.2
699.1
704.0
524.2
534-2
538.9
535.4
3,273
3,359
3,407
3,421
2,569
2,611
2,626
2,602
4,960
5,043
5,098
5,187
3,548
3,568
3,582
3,630
834.5
851-4
860.8
876.2
838.0
858.1
867.9
881.5
725-7
742.9
750.4
758.5
546.6
554.6
556.5
560.9
3,517
3,592
3,620
3,649
2,650
2,682
2,684
2,698
5,326
5,461
5,568
5,703
3,681
3,757
3,808
3,874
903.1
922.1
943.0
974-2
907.0
922.1
939.9
974.6
770.5
782.6
798.8
828.2
565.7
571.4
579.6
597.3
3,700
3,751
3,821
3,953
2,716
2,739
2,773
2,851
r5,899
r3,942
pi,007.1
993.9
r850.4
r604.9
r4,052
r2,882
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter .,
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9,10, and 65.
BUI
MAY 1973
69
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Yaar
and
qutrter
232. Durable
goods, total in
current dollars
231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars
230. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
233. Durable
goods, total except
autos, in current
dollars
234. Automobiles
in current dollars
(Ann. rgte,
bil.doj.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
{Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
237. Services in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1970
604.1
613.4
623.0
626.5
474.1
476.9
480.2
476.5
90.2
91.6
92.6
87.5
61.3
61.6
62.9
64.1
28.9
30.0
29.7
23.4
257.S
262.4
266.3
271.3
364.1
267.7
648.0
660.4
670.7
680.5
488.2
493.0
497.4
503.2
99.8
101.9
106.1
106.1
65.5
67.6
69.0
70.2
34.3
34.3
37.1
35.9
273.4
277.2
278.5
283.4
274.8
281.3
286.1
290.9
696.1
713.4
728.6
745.7
511.0
520.9
528.7
537.8
111.0
113.9
118.6
120.8
74-1
75.7
77.0
80.2
36.9
38.2
41.6
40.6
288.3
297.2
302.0
310.4
296.7
302.4
308.0
314.5
r?73.6
r550.3
rl30.4
r85.6
First quarter . . ,
Second qusrter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter ..
Second qua'ter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter.,
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
r322.6
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
240. Total
241. Nonresidential
fixed investment
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol,)
242. Nonresidential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
243. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
244. Residential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
248. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1970
First quarter ,.
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
132.9
137.7
139.9
137.8
100.2
101.7
103.4
98.5
35.5
36.1
36.2
36.3
64.8
65.6
67.2
62.1
31.2
29.7
30.3
33.6
143.9
153.0
152.2
158.8
101.9
105.0
106.3
109.8
37.6
38.3
38.7
38.8
64.3
66.7
67.6
71.0
37.0
41.4
44-5
47.3
+4.9
168.1
177.0
183.2
193.4
116.1
119.2
120.7
126.1
41.3
42.0
41.8
43.7
74.8
77.2
79.0
82.3
51.6
52.8
54.4
57.0
+0.4
+5-0
+-B.G
+10.3
r!99.7
rl33.5
r46.7
r86.8
r59.4
r+6.8
+6.3
+6.2
+5.7
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
+6.6
+1.3
+1.7
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter.,
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect serie;; relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; end
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12.
70
MAY 1973
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
H
^H FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
252. Exports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
253. Imports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
264. National
defense
262. Federal
260. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
{Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1970
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
78.9
74.7
73.8
72.9
117.6
120.5
124.3
127.6
96.2
96.3
97.9
100.7
72.5
71.2
70.1
71.9
130.8
133.3
135.7
140.2
249.4
254-1
255.6
259.3
105.7
108.1
105.4
104.0
76.7
78.6
75.1
73.2
143-7
146.0
150.2
155.2
266.8
r!06.6
75.0
r 160.1
+3.6
+3.9
+4.0
+2.8
61.5
63.0
63.7
63.2
57.9
59.2
59.8
60.4
217.3
216.7
219.5
222.6
99.7
96.2
95.2
95-0
+4.5
+0.1
+0.4
-2.1
66.3
66.7
68.5
63.0
61.8
66.6
68.2
65.1
227.0
229.5
233.6
240.9
-4.6
-5.2
-3.4
-3.5
70.7
70.0
74.4
79.6
75.3
75.2
77.8
83.1
r-2.2
r87.6
r89,8
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
. ..
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
H
Qj FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. do!.}
280. Compensation
of employees
Nondurable goods
Durable goods
Year
and
quarter
271. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bif.dol.)
274. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
282. Proprietors'
income
284. Rental income
of persons
275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
{Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1970
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
184.4
185.2
187.4
174.8
+1.0
+1.6
+6.0
-0.9
277.8
282.1
285.2
290.7
+0.5
+4-7
+0.2
+6.6
594-3
600.7
609.0
611.2
67.7
67.1
66.6
65-8
23.0
23.2
23-4
23.8
189.6
191.0
197.7
200.1
+3.7
+3.6
-1.0
-1.9
292.6
294.8
298.5
303.0
+1.2
+3.1
+2.3
+3.5
628.6
639.6
648.0
660.4
68.1
69-3
70.7
71.8
23.9
24-4
24.8
25-0
208.8
214.6
220.7
225.1
+0.4
+3.0
+5.4
+11.9
308.4
317.5
321.7
329.7
0.0
+2.1
+2.6
-1.6
682.7
697.8
710.2
730.3
73.3
73.2
75.3
79.0
25.2
24.2
26.2
26.9
r240.3
+6.3
r344,3
r+0.5
r757.0
81.2
26.5
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
. .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 14,15, and 16.
BCII
MAY 1973
71
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DQLlARS-Con.
Year
end
qujrter
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
{Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
$m SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
290. Gross saving
288. Net interest
296. Capital eon
sumption
allowances
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
294. Undistributed
corporate profits
plus inventory valuation adjustment
292. Personal
saving
290. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
1970
First quarter ...
Second quarter ,
Third quarter..,
Fourth quarter
85.1
-o.a
9.9
85.8
86.6
87.9
-31.8
-18.8
59.3
64.1
61.0
59.3
13.0
16.0
15.2
18.8
90.2
92.4
95.0
97.4
-H.O
55.7
50.1
50.8
62.8
17.0
19.8
21.2
24.6
99.7
105.3
104.1
105.6
-7.7
-6.9
-2.4
P20.9
107.2
69.3
71.5
72.0
66.9
33.2
34.2
35.3
36.5
141.3
1U.3
144.5
138.2
46.3
55.9
58.0
59.2
10.2
12.1
11.7
76.6
80.1
78.3
79. 4
37.3
38.1
39.1
39.7
148.5
154.8
154-6
157.8
81.8
86.1
89.6
95.6
40.1
40.9
41.7
42.5
163.9
168.0
173.6
188.1
P99.0
•43.4
P191.7
-9.6
1S71
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quaner..
Fourth quarter
-la.o
-16.9
-18.7
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
-4.8
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
p+7.0
REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Yeaand
quarter
273. Final sales,
constant
(1958} dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
246. Change in
business inventories,
constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
248. Fixed investment, residential
structures, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
249. Gross auto
product, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
261. Government
purchases of gooes
and services, total,
constant (1958}
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
1970
First quarter .,
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
719.5
717.5
721.9
713.2
+0.9
+5.6
+4.9
+4.8
78.8
78.9
79-3
73.6
22.2
21.1
22.0
23-9
29.2
32.8
31.6
20.0
136,6
137.5
137.3
728.1
732.6
741.7
753.8
+3.8
+5.3
+0.7
+0.7
75.3
76.4
76.4
79.2
25.9
28.3
30.1
32.1
37.1
34.3
37.8
35.a
136.1
135.7
137.6
141,1
766.3
780.0
789.8
803.6
+0.3
+3.9
+6.2
+8.0
82.2
83.6
84.2
87.6
34.2
34.4
35.1
36.4
35.6
37.0
40.6
40.9
142,2
143.9
142,6
142.7
r822.4
r+4.9
P91.7
r37.4
r46.G
142.9
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarts
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarte;
NOTE: Series ore seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of thesu series are shown on pages 16,17, and 18.
72
MAY 1973
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Percent of Gross National Product
Year
and
quarter
230A. Personal
consumption
expenditures
241A. Fixed
investment,
nonresidential
244A. Fixed
investment, residential structures
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
245A. Change
in business
inventories
250A. Net exports of goods
and services
(Percent)
(Percent)
262A. Federal
Govt. purchases of
goods and services
266A. State and local
Govt. purchases of
goods and services
(Percent)
(Percent)
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
63.1
63.1
63.2
63.3
10.5
10.5
10.5
10.0
3-3
3.1
3.1
+0.2
+0.6
+0.6
+0.6
+0.4
+0.4
+0.4
+0.3
63.3
63-3
63.5
63.1
10.0
10.1
10.1
10.2
3.6
4-0
4.2
4.4
+0.5
+0.6
+0.1
+0.2
62.8
62.6
62.6
62. 4
10.5
10.5
10.4
10.6
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.8
12.3
12.4
10.4
9.9
9.7
9.6
12.6
12.9
+0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.2
9.4
9.2
9.3
9.3
12.8
12.8
12.8
13.0
+0.0
+0.4
+0.7
+0.9
-0.4
-0.5
-0.3
-0.3
9.5
9.5
9.1
8.7
13.0
12.8
12.9
13.0
+0.6
r-0.2
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
rlO.8
r62.5
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
r8.6
12.9
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Con.
Percent of National Income
Year
and
quarter
280A. Compensation
Of employees
284A. Rental income
of persons
282A. Proprietors'
income
288A. Net interest
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
286A. Corporate profits and
inventory valuation
adjustment
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
75.5
75.4
75-5
76.0
8.6
8.4
8.3
8.2
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0
9.0
8.9
8.3
4.3
4.4
4.5
75.3
75.1
75.3
75.4
8.2
8.1
8.2
8.2
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9
9.2
9.4
9.1
9.1
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.5
75.6
75.7
75.3
75.0
8.1
7.9
8.0
8.1
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.8
9.1
9.3
9.5
9.8
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.2
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
P75.2
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
P8.1
p2.6
P9.8
P4.3
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
i
Graphs of these series are shown on page 19.
IICII MAY
1973
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
M EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
LEADING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Job Vacancies
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
*1. Average
workweek of
production workers,
manufacturing
Year
and
month
(Hours)
21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production
workers, manufacturing
(Hours)
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
*5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs1
(ThousJ
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
(Per 100
employees)
50. Number of
job vacancies,
manufacturing
(Thous.)
46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspapers
(1967=100)
1971
January , , ,
February
March
39.9
39.7
39.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
3.7
3.7
3.9
293
286
296
1.7
1.6
1.6
89
37
84
78
78
79
April
May
Juno
39.8
40.0
40.0
2.9
2.9
2.9
3.9
3.9
3.7
284
290
293
1.6
1.5
1.5
88
87
91
79
80
84
July
August ....
September
....
40.0
39.8
39.6
3.0
2.9
2.8
3.7
4.2
3.9
276
329
303
1.5
1.9
1.6
87
86
92
35
85
82
October
November
December
....
39.9
40.1
40.2
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.8
4.1
3.9
291
283
272
1.5
1.4
1.4
92
92
93
83
84
85
January
February
March
40.1
40.4
40.4
2.9
3-2
3.3
4.4
4.4
4.4
266
262
1.3
1.2
1.2
98
106
111
89
B9
r93
April
May
June
40.8
40.5
40.7
3.5
3.4
3.4
4.3
4.7
4.0
260
261
291
1.1
1.0
1.4
117
118
127
95
96
97
40.6
40.6
40.8
3.4
3.5
3.6
4.3
4.7
4.3
260
248
242
1.2
1.0
1.0
130
130
137
103
107
103
40.7
40.9
40.7
3.6
3.7
3.8
4.6
4-5
4-2
246
241
247
0.9
0.9
1.0
145
155
158
109
109
117
40-3
40.9
40.9
3.7
3.9
3.9
E>4-9
4.8
228
0.9
0.9
H>p0.9
1972
....
July
August . . .
September
October ...
November
December . .,
....
....
261
1973
January
February
March
April ..... 0
May
June ...
July
August ....
September
(H>P41.1
E>P4.1
B>
222
P4.7
230
(NA)
p238
(NA)
:t2 a
170
rll9
rial
r!77
E>Pl?8
|H) 0,122
(NA)
....
....
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by <§). Current high values are indicated by[H); for
series that mow counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by HX Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk {*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart 88). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 20,21, and 39.
1
Data exclude Puerto Rioo which is included in figures published by source agency.
74
MAY 1973
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
HH EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.
Minor Economic
48. Man-hours
in nqmagricultural
establishments
(Ann. rate, bil.
fnan-hours)
*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
Comprehensive Employment
PfOCGSS
Year
and
month
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey1
{Thous.}
*43. Unemployment rate, total1
(Percent)
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs2
(Percent)
40. Unemployment rate,
married males1
(Percent)
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over 1
(Percent)
1971
January
February
March
137.23
136.40
137.03
70,331
70,266
70,299
75,268
75,147
75,047
6.0
5.9
6.0
3.7
3.7
3.8
3.3
3.2
3.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
April
May
June
137.22
137.78
137.84
70,461
70,643
70,574
75,203
75,504
75,360
5-9
6.0
5.8
3.9
4.3
4.3
3.1
3.2
3.1
1.3
1.4
1.4
July
August
September
137.58
137.53
137.58
70,532
70,548
70,843
75,724
75,868
76,108
5.9
6.1
5.9
4-0
4.1
4.6
3.1
3.2
3.2
1.5
1.5
1.5
October
November
December
138.18
139.02
139.38
70,861
71,103
71,291
76,325
76,540
76,631
5.9
6.0
6.0
4.4
4.1
3.8
3.0
3.3
3.2
1.5
1.5
1.5
January
February
March
139.73
140.39
140.77
71,552
71,744
72,011
77,182
77,225
77,756
5.9
5.8
5.9
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.0
2-9
2.8
1.4
1.5
1-4
April
May .
June
141.72
H2.04
142.59
72,246
72,592
72,699
77,896
78,120
78,421
5.8
5.8
5.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
2.9
2.8
2.9
1.3
1.3
1.3
July
August
September
U2.28
142.66
143.55
72,661
72,984
73,176
78,339
78,451
78,677
5.6
5.6
5.5
3.6
3.3
3.4
2.7
2.6
2.8
1.3
1.3
1.3
October
November
December
144.29
144-77
144.64
73,589
73,899
74,026
78,739
78,969
79,130
5.5
5.2
5.1
3.3
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
145.11
1-146.27
1-146.43
74,245
r74,725
r74,933
79,054
79,703
80,409
5.0
5.1
5.0
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.4
2.4
2.5
1.1
1.0
1.0
(R)pl47.24
(H>P75,042
[R>80,606
(H)5.0
H>P2.6
H>2.4
§>0.9
1972
1973
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally Adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by E); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by (H>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8K The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Graphs of these series are sho^n on pages 21, 22,41, and 42.
Beginning with January 1972, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for
computing this series.| Prior to January 1972, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark. 2Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
BCII MAY 1973
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCFSS
|H
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process;
....
Year
and
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Comprehensive Production
*200. Gross national product
in current dollars
*205. Gross national product
in 1958 dollars
{Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
Comprehensive Income
*47. Index of
industrial production
*52. Personal
income
Tionth
(1967-100)
{Ann, rate,
bil.dol.}
53. Wages and
*56. Manufacsalaries in min- turing and trade
ing, manufactur- sales
ing and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(MiS.dol.)
57. Final sales
(series 20D
minus series
245)
(Ann. rote,
bil.dol.)
Sales of retail stores
*54. Current
dollar sales
(Mil. dot.)
59. Deflated
(1967 dollar)
sales
(Mil. del.)
C1)
1971
1,023-4
731.9
105.5
106.0
106.0
833.9
837.3
842.9
198.9
199.0
199.5
106,767
108,201
109,752
1,018! 5
32,290
32,850
33,274
y27,908
3*28,392
1*28,635
1,043.6
737.9
106.5
107.4
107.4
847.4
853.4
873.4
200.7
302.8
202.9
110,453
111,458
112,647
1,036.4
33,573
33,502
33,827
28,798
28,585
28,740
1,056*.9
742.5
106.7
105.6
107.1
862.4
869.1
872.2
202.0
202.0
203.5
111,791
113,910
113,450
1,05§'.6
33,688
34,655
35,219
28,573
29,344
E-29,821
1,078.1
754*. 5
106.8
107.4
108.1
874.8
879.4
890.4
204.4
205.3
209.2
113,191
115,757
115,630
1,076.4
34,964
35,574
34,696
29,555
30,020
?29,349
l,109a
766*. 5
108.7
110.0
111.2
898.9
908.5
913.6
211.2
214.1
216.4
118,426
118,077
120,669
1,108.6
34,886
35,345
36,450
if 29, 291
r29,553
r30,426
l,139*-4
783.9
112.8
113.2
113.4
919.4
92^.0
922.9
218.1
218.8
219.9
121,685
122,814
122,283
1,134*. 4
36,296
37,141
36,822
30,272
30,1174
30,358
July
August
September
1,164*0
796*. 1
113.9
115.1
116.1
932.9
940.0
946.8
218.8
221.7
224.2
123,371
126,458
127,056
i,ise!6
37,342
37,969
37,746
30,861
31,302
r30,939
October ...
November
December
1,194^9
811 ! 6
117.5
118.5
119.2
964-8
976.2
982.9
227.4
229-7
232.1
129,610
131,478
132,766
l,184is
39,106
3S,713
39,417
3*31,975
31,551
32,099
119.9
r!21.1
rl2l.8
986.0
994.5
rl, 001.3
236. a
EBrl, 231.0
r238.0
136,761
rl38,788
H>pl40,832
40,707
r£L,242
Pra?939
r32,881
r33,073
H>r33,232
Dpl23.0
E>pl,008.9
B>paa.o
pa, 323
p32,UO
January
February
March
April
May
....
June
July
August
September
.. .
....
October
Novsmbur
December
1972
January
February
March .
April
May
June
.
....
1 973
January
February
March
.
....
April
May .
H>rl,237i9
Dr827'.3
233.9
(NA)
June
July .
August
Septembar
. .
October
NovembiT
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by (H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, H, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by (B>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk H are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart 88). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 23, 24, and 41
^Soe "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii
76
MAY 1973
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^H FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
TIMING CLASS ....
LEADING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
Formation of Business
Enterprises
*12. Index of net
business
formation
(1967=100)
New Investment Commitments
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
(Number)
*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations'
(Bil.dol.)
(1967=100)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.}
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
capital goods
industries,
nondefense
(Bil.dol.)
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and
industrial
buildings'
(Mil. sq.ft. floor
space)
1971
January
February
March
April
May
June
106.8
106.1
109.2
22,563
21,034
23,237
29.08
29.25
29.57
124
126
142
8.22
8.37
8.65
5^74
6.88
6.81
7.12
54.37
50.04
65.44
109.4
28.75
28.97
28.97
161
138
147
8.63
8.78
9.07
5. *49
7.01
7.26
7.52
54.82
63-40
62.83
112.3
22,970
24,030
24,314
July
August
September
112.7
113.5
112.6
24,726
25,1^5
23,450
29.49
31.34
29.65
151
153
151
8.61
9.20
8.96
5.*89
7.21
7.49
7.47
60.67
54.82
70.72
October
November
December ....
114.7
115.8
116.0
25,152
25,677
25,921
30.32
31-29
31.00
137
155
160
9.29
9.49
9.54
5.93
7.86
7.93
8.13
61.75
68.70
66.69
January
February
March
115.3
115.1
117.5
24,871
25,055
26,862
32.55
32.47
33.33
160
155
159
9.54
9.33
6.*57
10.00
8.17
8.20
8.53
59.65
66.72
66.68
April
May
June
118.7
119.2
118.4
26,681
26,243
26,303
34.00
34-30
35.61
167
165
154
10.24
10.49
10.69
6.97
8.78
9.04
9.23
65-53
81.95
70.51
July
August
September
118.6
118.2
119.4
26,815
26,420
26,798
34-43
35.73
36.85
155
180
187
10.73
10.58
11.45
7.11
9.10
9.21
9.52
67.74
75.65
74.69
H>121.0
120.. 8
120.7
27,417
26,387
27,614
36.76
37.62
37.56
171
177
163
11.82
11.60
11.72
r8.24
9.69
9.76
10.07
74.61
82.67
78.82
119.7
120.5
27,173
28,640
E>P29,861
, 39. a
40.09
(H>r42.34
181
191
E>193
12.03
11.81
[H>rl2.42
10.43
10.04
JH)rl0.92
85.94
D86.40
84-30
177
P12.34
plO.59
83.86
110.4
....
1972
October
November
December
1973
January
February
March
April
May
June
CNA)
(NA)
P41. 49
E>P9*-51
July
August
September
October
November ....
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by E); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by ED- Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 25,26, and 39.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source aeency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division (series 8 and 9), or The Conference Board (series 11).
ItCII MAY 1973
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMIKG CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
LEADING INDICATORS
New Investment
Commitments-Con.
Backlog of Investment
Commitments
Investment Expenditures
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
28. New private *29. Index of
new private
housing units
housing units
started, total
authorized by
local building
permits
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
(1967-100)
Year
and
month
H
^H FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(Bil.dol.)
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing1
(Bil.dol.}
*31, Change in
book value of
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total
37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higho:r
invontorira
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
{Ann. rate,
biJ.doU
(Percent
reporting)
102.29
102.52
104.72
+4.9
+9.6
+8.8
81.61
103.33
105.51
107.28
+6^6
8o!?5
105.35
106.45
109.56
+i'.3
110.00
110.78
116.21
+l'.7
86! 79
118.98
116.10
118.89
B7\I2
*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business construction expenditures
{Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
245. Change
in business
inventories
1971
January
February
March
....
1,793
1,750
1,910
146.2
137.8
150.9
71.94
72.22
72.16
April
May .
Juno
2,018
2,057
2,005
150.8
172.7
167.7
71.40
70.38
68.98
July .
August
September
2,100
2,182
2,037
182.2
179.3
174.1
68.67
69.17
69.02
October
November
December
2,053
2,219
2,396
177.7
183.3
192.0
69.31
69.81
69.90
2,439
®2,540
2,313
193.2
180.2
175.9
70.49
70.92
71.56
2,204
2,318
2,315
174.5
171.3
185.9
71.98
72.58
75.06
2o!57
July
August
September
2,244
2,424
2,426
184.8
196.1
198.5
75.67
76.69
78.51
...
21.51
October
November
December
2,446
2,395
2,369
194.2
187.5
E> 208.3
79.17
80.05
81.23
2,497
r2,456
r2,248
194.4
192.0
rlSl.5
82.59
84.34
r88.06
p2,103
p!57.1
B>p90.17
....
79^32
20.38
19^64
19.*46
+11.0
46
49
51
+7.8
+9.5
+3.9
57
55
$B
+5.5
+8.2
59
51
41
+12.4
+11.9
39
42
49
+0.4
+5.5
+6.3
+5.2
49
52
51
120.95
123. IB
123.42
+5*.0
+6.6
+13. 6
+5.8
52
52
47
121.70
124.68
123.70
+s!o
+5.3
+18.3
•1-16.2
44
56
59
H>9l.9i
126.53
128.42
129.57
[H> +K>:3
+14.6
+16.1
+13.9
(067
65
64
a96*.74
D 13?. 09
r!34.79
pa.37.oa.
r+6*.8
[H> +26.1
r+22.2
p+16.6
83.18
19^06
+5.0
+1.3
1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
.. .
19! 66
87.67
...
r23\30
1973
January
February
March
April
May
June
. .
i>p26.'l8
(NA)
(NA)
62
S3
59
56
a!0o!l3
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by <§). Current high values are indicated by [H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity {series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H>. Series numbers are for identification
only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 N8ER "short
list" of indicators (chart 88). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26,27,28,39,40, and 42.
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board.
78
MAY 1973
ItCIt
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
LEADING INDJCATORS-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing-Con.
Inventories
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
20. Change in
book value,
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.
and supplies
Year
and
month
Bi PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
jffl INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Con.
(Ann. r£te,
bil.dol.)
26. Prod, materials, companies reporting commitments 60 days
or longer®
(Percent
reporting)
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices
. p
btock mces
32. Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliveries©
25, Change in
unfilled
orders, durable goods
industries
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
65. Mfrs.'
inventories of
finished
goods, book
value
*23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices@
*19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks®
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(1967=100)
(1941-43=10)
Profits and Profit Margins
Corporate profits after
taxes
*16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
18. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1971
52
59
56
38
44
46
+0.58
40.28
-0.06
175.74
176.47
177.39
34-18
34.22
34.41
105.9
107.2
107.8
93.49
97.11
99-60
+4.2
+2.7
+^.3
57
55
58
52
53
50
-0.77
-1.02
-1.40
178.04
178.83
179.16
34-14
34.13
34-02
110.2
108.6
106.1
103.04
101.64
99.72
July
August
September
+2.1
-1.7
-3.7
57
55 52
48
49
48
-0.31
+0.50
-0.15
179.61
180.30
181.33
33.76
33.80
33.98
104.7
106.1
107.5
October
November
December
-0.3
+1.1
51
50
45
50
48
51
+0.29
+0.50
+0.09
181.75
181.85
182.84
34.26
34.15
34.01
January
February
March
-0.1
+1.1
-3.7
53
55
56
52
52
58
+0.59
+0.42
+0.64
183.30
183.83
184.26
April
May
June
^0.1
-to. 3
-0.2
51
56
56
58
60
60
-tO. 42
+0.60
+2.48
July
August
September
+5.0
+4.1
-0.1
54
57
56
63
63
65
October
November
December
+2.4
+2.0
+1.6
64
63
62
+5.3
January
February
March
+0.3
April
May
June
43^2
32^3
45.8
33^8
99.00
97.24
99.40
46.' 6
34.1
107.4
106.9
106.8
97.29
92.78
99.17
48.0
35il
33.92
33-98
34.22
110.7
113.0
117.2
103.30
105.24
107.69
49.5
35^7
184.82
185.95
186.44
34.29
34-42
34.67
119.5
124.3
123.8
108.81
107.65
108.01
51.5
36^9
+0.60
+1.02
+1.82
186.88
188.41
189.76
34.82
E>35.30
35.18
123.7
124.6
124.8
107.21
111.01
109.39
53.*9
38 '.3
73
70
77
+0.67
+0.87
+1.18
190.97
192.32
193.48
34.95
34.90
35.02
128.1
131.6
134.8
109.56
115.05
117.50
57*. 2
46! 4
78
84
88
-hi. 36
+1.76
[HX+3.72
195.66
rl97.50
(H)P198.89
34.85
34.92
35.24
139.3
147.5
155.3
E>118.42
114.16
112.42
B>p62.3
i>p43-5
+3.2
63
68
67
(NA)
E>77
B>90
p+2.10
0.0
~H
. . .
0.0
1972
1973
January
February
March
B>+5.3
April
May
(NA)
(NA)
D158.2
X
160.6
110.27
2
107. 34
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by 0); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by |H>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart 88). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28,29, 30,40, and 42.
Average for May 1, 8, and 15.
ItCII
MAY 1973
3
Average for May 2, 9, 16, and 23.
79
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
IH PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.
LEADING INDICATQRS-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
....
Year
and
month
Prof its and Profit Margins-Con.
Cash Flow
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Unit Labor Costs
34. Current
dollars
55. Index of
wholesale
prices,
35. Constant industrial
{1958} dol. commod.®
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
96.5
96.7
96.9
7^2
55*5
22. Ratio,
profits to
income
orig. in
corporate
business
15. Prof its
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all
rnfg. corp.
* 17. Ratio,
price to unit
labor cost
index, mfg.
(Percent)
(Cents)
(1967=100)
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, mfd.
goods©
63. Index
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
112.2
112.5
112.8
111.8.
112.4
112.7
122.0
123 ".2
Net cash flow, corporate
Unit labor cost, total
private economy
63c. Change
over 141
spans
(Ann. rate,
percent)
*62. Intfox
68. Labcr
of labor
cost (cur.
cost nor
dot.) per
unit of gross unit of nutprod. (UKi8 put, mfg.
dol.),corp.
(Dollars)
{1967^100)
1971
January
February
March
....
April
May
June
...
Ju'y ....
August
Seatember
October
November
December
1.7
8*. 5
4.0
8*. 5
4-2
97.2
97.4
97.6
79^8
58.0
113.3
113.7
113-9
113.0
113.5
113.8
B.9
97.7
97.7
98.4
82^3
59*1
114.5
115.1
115-0
114-5
4^2
98.2
98.2
97.8
115.0
85*7
124! 2
115.3
114.5
114.5
115.1
97.9
97.6
98.1
88*.2
62*.4
115.9
116.5
116.8
115.7
116.5
116.7
125.7
8.*7
I.I
6l!s
1H-9
1U-9
H6.0
116. ,1
C.826
116.2
0.831
116.1
116.6
116.5
0.834
117.0
.118.0
116.6
0.836
116.7
116.9
117.9
3.9
2.6
123! 9
114-7
1.0
1972
4.6
Jar uary
February .
March
9.0
4-2
• ••
Ap'il
May
Juro
9.1
4.2
98.3
98.5
98.3
93^3
65^4
117.3
117.6
117.9
116.9
117.4
117.8
125^5
July
August ...
September
9.3
4.3
98.8
99.2
99.4
95^7
66!?
118.1
118.5
118.7
118.3
118.5
118.8
125 !s
October
November
December
9.5
®i'-i
99.9
69.4
118.8
119.1
119.4
118.8
119.2
120.7
126.5
120.0
121.3
122.7
121.6
123.6
125.7
(H>P128.'6
0)124.4
E>126.7
99.3
99.6
100.7
118.4
119.5
0.842
118. a
0.841
118.9
119.2
119. B
0.842
119.5
119.1*:
119.4
0.845
119.7
120.0
119-9
[H)PO.B56
r!21.0
rial. 7
r.120.5
-0.6
0.3
3.0
1973
January
February
March
Apr 1
May
Juno ....
®]&0.3
(m)
rlOO.7
rl01.7 E>Pl05.7
I>rl04.2
p!03.8
0>P72.6
[H>6.7
[H)pl22.1
July
Augjst . . .
September
October ...
November .
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by <§>. Current high values are indicated by IH); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by[R). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1906 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; snd "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30, 31, 32,40, and 42.
80
MAY 1973
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^H MONEY AND CREDIT
^^^
i
LEADING INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply (M1)
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate,
percent)
102. Change in 103. Change in
money sup. plus
money supply
time dep. at
plus time deposits at comm. banks and nonbank inst. (M3)
banks (M2)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
33. Net change 112. Change
in business
in mortgage
debt held by fin. loans
inst. and life
insurance1
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(a)
1971
January
February
March
Credit Difficulties
Flows of Money and Credit
.. .
+2.71
+14.07
+9.63
. .
+12.14
|H)+20 . 12
+18.41
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*113. Net
change in consumer installment debt
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
110. Total
private
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures®
(Mil. dol.)
( )
+14.22
[H>+20.16
+18.91
+23.92
+23.38
+29.89
-3.97
+5.69
+1.70
+2.72
+6.24
+7.56
111,952
168.80
150.90
224,65
153.80
249.49
165.94
+12.45
+13.39
+10.07
+15.22
+14.85
+11.70
+30.90
+34.64
+39.96
-8.26
+6 64
-0 18
+9.73
+6.80
+6.95
129,328
July
August
September
+8.26
+2.56
+1.53
+8.41
+4.96
+4.68
+10.90
+8.06
+7.66
+U.58
+44-27
+40.45
-7.20
+16.03
+20.42
+8.30
+10.81
+13.22
147,856
...
147.03
155.56
115.85
October
November
December
+4.09
0 51
+2.04
+9.32
+7 70
+8.93
+11.00
+9.56
+10.31
+36.79
+40.10
+45.40
-5.54
-0.95
-4.58
+10.50
+14.30
+10.68
132 , 676
144.70
129.00
111.32
+10.38
+15 . 07
+12.40
+13.19
+16 . 80
+14.16
+37.37
r+35.63
r+44.70
r-8.48
r+6. 52
r+4. 70
+13.21
+10.60
+15.77
r!35,404
101.62
191.33
220.66
+7.95
+3.95
+6.40
+7.85
+8.29
+9.20
+10.65
+10.09
+11 . 10
r+45.67
r+49 . 52
r+53.53
r+10.31
r+4. 72
r-6.83
+11.88
+15-98
+16.63
r!44,040
148.47
190.14
127.90
July
August
September
+12.73
+4.36
+7.24
+12.50
+9.28
+8.73
r+13-94
+11.63
+11.22
r+49 . 79
r+58.32
r+49 38
r+1.10
r+7.00
r+12.02
+13.13
+19.72
+15.43
r!54,832
204-62
253.62
113.54
October
November
December
+7.20
+*> 25
+1^ ?n
+10.08
+7 90
+12 24
+12 . 02
r+9 81
r+12 39
r+47 . 57
r+54.29
rn\ +60 /^
r+18.56
r+16.78
r+13 . 94
+17.95
+20.62
+19.96
r!78, 592
152.97
208.58
[H>86.79
-0 47
+6 11
r-0 47
+6 40
r+4 75
P+7 48
+9 . 92
p+8 11
+8 89
....
(Percent)
a
+9.55
+13.68
+9.89
April
May
June
39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, total
installment
loans
1.81
1.72
1.81
1.75
.. *
1.94
[H>1.68
1972
January
February
March
+1.02
[H)+14.73
+11 . 54
April
May
June
1.73
1.79
1.87
1.92
2.03
1.92
1973
January
February
March
...
April
May
June
,
.. .
July
August
September
October
November
December
+*> 91
r+9. 78
r+8.98
r+6 90
n+fi QQ
r+42 89
•n+/7. 0 *>
(v/0
r+23 94
[H)r+50.92
r+41 . 58
p+25 87
+23 . 39
+23.96 R)pl81 , 936
E)+24.53
(NA^
205 84
137.16
2 52 . 3 5
2.02
m Q ?y
fWA^
\NA)
°+13 56
.,i
....
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by®; for
series that move counted to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by |H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk {*} are included in the 1966 NBER "short
fist" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 33, 34, and 40.
Data include conventional mortgages held by the Government National Mortgage Association.
See "New Features and Changes
for This Issue," page iii. dAverage for weeks ended May 2, 9, and 16.
BCD
MAY 1973
81
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Bi MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
LAGGING INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Bank
Reserves
93. Free
reserves ®
Outstanding Debt
Interest Rstes
D
114. Treasury
bill rate©
1t6. Corporate
bond yields©
11 5. Treasury
bond yields®
117. Municipal
bond yields©
66. Consumer
installment
debt
(Percent)
{Percent}
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
Year
and
month
(Mil. dol.)
*72. Commercial
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly reporting large
commercial
banks
(Mil. dol.}
Interest Rates
*67. Batik
rates on shortterm business
loans, 3Ei
cities©
118. Mortgage
yields, residential®
(Percent)
(Percent)
f1)
1971
January
February
March . „
-91
-127
-120
4.49
3.77
3.32
(m)
7.63
7.54
7.62
5.92
5.84
5.71
5.36
5.23
5.17
99,774
100,294
100,924
83,235
83,709
83,851
6.59
7.76
5.37
5.90
5.95
101,735
102,302
102,881
83,163
83,716
83,701
6.01
ED6.06
5.82
5.37
103,573
104,474
105,576
83,101
84,437
86,139
6.51
CM)
7.32
April
May
June
-8
-18
3.78
-3?2
4.70
8.15
5.75
5.96
5.94
July
August
September
-658
-606
-295
5.4-0
5.08
4.67
8.24
8.14
7.90
5.91
5.78
5.56
October .
November
December
-153
4.49
4.19
4.02
7.72
7.67
7.54
5.46
5.48
5.62
5.06
5.20
5.21
106,451
107,643
108,533
85,677
85,598
85,216
6.18
7,75
7,62
7,59
3.40
3.18
3.72
7.36
7.57
7-53
5.62
5.67
5.66
5.12
5.28
5.31
109,634
110,517
111,831
84,509
85,052
85,444,
5.53
7.49
7.46
7.45
3.72
3.65
3.87
7.77
7.61
7.63
5.74
5.64
5.59
5.43
5.30
5.34
112,821
114,153
115,539
86,303
86,696
86,127
§.59
7.50
7,53
7.54
-183
-352
4.06
4.01
4.65
7.72
7.59
7.72
5-59
5.59
5.70
5.41
5.30 '
5.36
116,633
118,276
119 , 562
86,218
86 , 801
87,803
5.84
7.54
7.55
7,56
-^?7
-?Q?
/ 7?
I 77
7 66
7 46
5 6Q
5 18
c. ei
%
0?
121 058
122 776
6 VI
-830
5 06
7 60
5 63
6. OS
12A A3Q
89 160
90 748
91 Q1Q
5.96
6 14
(R)6*20
5.05
% 13
6.29
126 388
128,385
[fi>130,429
-1U
+50
4 14
[H)8.25
7.37
7.79
7, .89
[H}7.97
...
7.93
7,84
1972
January ...
February
March
April
May
June
4-153
+91
+134
+27
-15
,
July
August
September ....... .
October
November
December
+110
-55
7.57
7 *s7
7.56
1973
January
February ,
March
April
May
June
-A93
e -ai
-JL , ^oo
i •2t>t>
^
ejk
PO"
r-1,563
6 .05
7 6l
7 A7
7.75
[H)p-l,§&4
a
-1,556
D 6.29
3
6.26
7.71
*7.67
AC
5.15
6.11
4
6 22
S
5.11
(NA)
93 , 905
oft 1A8
i m An
7.55
[H>6 52
7 §A
rj
£Q
ft&J
7.73
[H)pl03,7&9
" 104,899
July
August
September . .
October
November ...
December . „
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated bylfi); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity {series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by[H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in tha 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart 88). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 35, 36, and 42.
1
Soe "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page lii. 3Average for weeks ended May 2, 9, and l6. aAverage for weeks
ended May 3, 10, 17, and 24.
^Average for weeks ended May 4, 11, and 18.
Average for weeks ended May 3, 10, and 17.
82
MAY 1973
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
Q| COMPOSITE INDEXES
810. Twelve
eaders, reverse' trend adusted1 (series
1,5/6,10.12,
16,17,19,23,
29,31,113)
Year
and
month
(1967-100}
8 11. Twelve
leaders, prior
to trend adjustment
{same components as
in series 8 10)
(1967-100)
820. Five
coincide rs,
estimated
aggregate
economic
activity
(series 41, 43,
47, 52, 56)
825. Five
coinciders, estimated aggregate economic
activity,
deflated
(series 41, 43,
47,52D,56D)
(1967=100)
(1967=100}
830. Six
aggers
(series 44
61,62,67,
71,72)
Leading Indicator Subgroups
813. Marginal
employment
adjustments
{series 1,2,
3,5)
(1967=100}
(1967=100}
814. Capital
investment
commitments
{series 6, 10f
12,29)
815. Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 23,
25,31,37)
816. Profitability
(series 16,
17,19)
81 7. Sensitive
financial flows
(series 33, 85,
112,113)
(1967=100)
(1967=100}
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
1971
118.7
120.1
122.6
101.4
102.2
103.9
120.6
121.3
121.9
112.9
113.4
113.8
125.9
124.2
124.2
93.1
93.7
94.1
108.9
108.6
110.0
102.9
102.3
102.7
95.6
98.1
99.0
100.4
104.5
April
May
June
124.3
125.5
3-25.5
105.0
105.6
105.2
122.6
123.6
125.2
114.3
114.8
116.5
123.7
123.4
124.2
94.2
94.1
94-2
109.7
111.5
112.1
103.3
102.6
101.4
100.5
101.1
100.6
106.1
105.4
107.4
July
.
August
September
127.0
127.9
128.5
106.1
106.4
106.6
124.0
124.1
125.2
113.7
113.7
115-9
124.5
125.9
125.9
93.7
93.2
92.6
113.0
114-2
112.8
102.0
102.6
101.3
100.7
100.5
101.7
109.1
110.0
108.6
October
November
December
129.7
131.4
132.7
107.1
108.2
108.8
125.5
126.6
127.6
115.3
116.5
117.3
125.8
125.8
125.9
93.3
95.1
95.2
114.7
116.2
116.0
100.7
100.8
102.3
101.3
100.6
101.9
104.6
105.0
104.8
January
February
March
134.6
135.0
138.3
109.9
109.9
112.2
129.4
130.7
132.2
118.9
119.7
121.1
125.8
125.7
126.1
97.1
97.8
98.5
116.3
115.5
117.0
103.1
104.0
105.1
103.0
103.4
104.6
106.3
108.1
116.5
April
May
June
139.6
HI. 9
142.5
112.8
114-2
114.3
133.7
134.8
135.3
122.4
123.4
123*7
126.9
127.6
128.2
99.0
99.8
97.2
117.8
.118.1
119.1
105.8
107.8
107.8
105.3
105.6
105.9
112.3
rl!2.9
rlH.O
July
August
September
142.8
146.7
147.7
114-1
116.8
117.1
136.0
138.0
139.3
124.2
126.3
126.8
r!28.7
r!29.7
131.7
98.5
100.7
100.4
118.8
119.5
121.0
105.8
109.1
110.0
106.5
108.0
•108.3
111.6
r!20.0
rll6.6
October
November
December
149.5
152.2
rl54.1
118.1
119.8
r!20.8
.141.9
144.3
145-5
129.5
131.5
132.4
133.5
135.9
r!37.8
101,6
101.4
100.2
121.6
121.4
122.4
110.4
111.4
112.2
108.8
110.6
rl!2.8
rl!8.9
123.6
r!24.3
rl57.0
r!59.8
H>3162.4
r!22.6
rl24-3
B) 125.9
147.4
rlA9.3
150.9
133.6
rl34-7
135.4
r!40.2
r!43-4
rH4-9
102.0
122.2
122.5
102.4
3
E>pl03-0 E> rl23.3
114.5
rll6,4
E)rll8.9
r!13.7
rlU.5
[H>rll6.9
rl26.1
r!27.9
Dpl31.0
E>4152.1
E)4136.1
H>pl48.1
P117.3
P115.8
January
February
March
. ..
98.6
1972
1973
January
February
March
April
May
June
3
161.5
2
3
124.8
(HA)
S
pl2l.l
(MA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 37 and 38.
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
^Excludes series 12 for which data are not available.
3
Excludes series 12, l6, 31, and 113 for which data are not yet available.
4
Excludes series 56 for which data are not yet available.
BOI MAY 1973
83
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter
410. Manufacturers'sales,
total value
6t. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
b. Second
anticipations as
percent of actual
c. First
anticipations as
percent of actual
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Bil. dol.}
412. Manufacturers' inventories,
total book value
(Bil.dol.)
414. Condition
416. Adequucy
of manufacturers' of mfrs,' capacinventories: perity: percent
considered inadecent considered
high less percent
quate less percent considered
considered low
excessive
(Percent)
(Percent)
435.Index of
consumer
sentiment ®
(First quarter
196(MQO)
^970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
100.7
101.7
23
23
21
20
38
36
33
33
78,1
75.4
77.1
75.4
162.0
166.6
167.8
171.1
101.8
101.6
101.4
101.7
19
20
18
16
26
21
20
19
78.2
81.6
82.4
82.2
178.7
183.9
188.9
197.7
102.5
103.5
105.4
107.0
12
10
12
24
26
31
35
87.5
e207.5
a200.9
e!09.6
a!09.1
(NA)
103.6
103.4
101.7
104.6
159.2
158.2
159.4
154.4
101.6
100.9
102.0
101.0
102.6
101.1
102.6
100.9
104,. 1
103.1
100.5
100. ^
102.3
102.3
(NA)
(NA)
78.22
80.22
81.88
78.63
102.3
100.5
79.32
81.61
80.75
83.18
86.79
87.12
87.67
91.94
99-0
103.9
98.5
99.6
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
99.1
1972
First quarter ,.
Second quarter
Third qjarter..
Fourth quarter
99.9
89.3
94.0
90.8
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
a96.74
alOO.13
so.B
(NA)
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reporting- ©
a. No change
in income
(Percent)
b. Higher
income
(Percent)
c. Lower
income
(Percent)
425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households ®
a.Increase
in income
(Percent)
b.Increase
less decrease
c. Decrease
in income
(Percent)
(Percent)
430. Household purchases of new cars
a. Actual
(quarterly)
2-quarter moving average
b. Actual
o. Anticipated 1 Anticipated
as percent of
(Ann. rate,
actual
mil. cars)
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
mil. cars)
(Ann. rate,
mil. cars)
7.4
8.3
7.7
8.0
7.6
7.6
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
50.3
49.8
48.5
50.8
35.0
35.1
37.6
34.9
14.1
14.5
12.5
13.6
20.1
19.9
18.2
16.7
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
51.4
51.0
53.6
46.3
35.2
35.7
34.3
40.8
12.7
12.5
10.9
12.0
45.9
46.8
41-6
40.8
11.8
11.7
13.8
12.9
10.9
9.4
6.3
7.0
7.3
7.3
8.1
8.8
6.9
7.8
8.2
8.4
17.2
19.9
17.0
15.7
10.5
12.4
10.2
6.7
7.5
6.8
6.7
8.3
8.9
8.7
8.1
8.5
8.6
8.8
8.4
8.4
8.0
8.6
8.6
102
15.9
16.1
19.9
20.1
9.7
9.4
9.5
0.8
9.a
105
13.5
14-0
6.2
6.7
6.4
6.1
17.1
16.6
10.7
10.3
6.4
6.3
9.0
112
103
93
90
98
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter,.
Fourth quarter
1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Thii d quarter..
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 43,44, and 45.
84
MAY 1973
KCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter
D61. Business expenditures for new
plant and equipment, all industries
a. Actual
expenditures
b. Second
anticipations
c. First
anticipations
0-Qspan)
(1-Qspan)
(1-Qspan)
77.8
47.2
58.3
19.4
69.4
61.1
25.0
44.4
38.9
55.6
66.7
50.0
50.0
61.1
44-4
75.0
33.3
58.3
47.2
72.2
44.4
50.0
55.6
83.3
CHA)
0442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade1 ®
0440. New orders,
manufacturing1 ®
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
0444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade1 ®
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
0446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade 1 ®
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
66
64
60
55
76
71
74
74
61
56
55
56
70
66
70
70
66
64
62
74
73
78
76
54
54
51
50
58
56
56
54
58.3
63.9
50.0
68
70
70
74
76
78
85
81
63
64
66
70
71
74
80
78
70
72
74
76
78
80
86
84
48
52
53
55
55
58
58
56
77.8
63-9
88.9
75.0
75.0
44-4
47.2
50.0
82
84
86
84
82
86
88
88
74
76
79
80
76
82
84
83
82
82
85
86
83
88
90
88
56
58
62
60
58
60
61
60
77.8
86.1
63.9
78
82
85
84
86
88
90
90
63
60
63
62
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
90
88
DIFFUSION INOEXES-Con.
Selling prices
0450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade1 ®
Year
and
quarter
Actual
0460. Manufacturing
and trade1 @
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
D462. Manufacturing
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Actual
1
®
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
0464. Wholesale trade 1 ®
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
0466. Retail trade 1 ®
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1970
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
66
61
62
58
62
61
64
58
84
82
82
80
78
78
78
77
80
80
78
75
79
76
78
75
87
85
86
84
77
80
82
80
86
86
85
86
80
80
81
80
62
62
62
60
60
62
65
65
80
80
71
72
78
78
78
78
74
76
68
70
76
76
75
75
85
86
73
74
80
82
82
82
86
84
73
74
80
80
80
80
64
66
72
71
61
66
66
66
74
76
76
78
68
74
75
72
70
72
72
74
72
72
70
80
81
82
80
70
78
80
74
73
78
79
81
67
74
74
74
73
69
72
72
86
76
82
85
82
90
80
86
88
90
76
85
88
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
73
80
83
NOTE: Series are seasonalfy adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"MA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc.
ltd*
MAY 1973
85
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
fll
500, Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 5 12}
Yea-
and
month
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. del.)
FOREIGN TRADE
506, Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles
and parts
508. Index of export orders,
nonelectrical machinery
(Mil.dol.)
(1957-59-100)
512. General imports, total
(Mil.dol.)
1971
January
February
March
+130
+160
3,601
3,694
3,790
1,518
1,472
1,469
236
225
234
3,599
3,564
3,629
April
May
June
-143
-161
-365
3,631
3,746
3,672
1,394
1,242
1,503
244
237
246
3,774
3,908
4,037
July
August
September
-259
-24?
4-308
3,573
3,666
4,487
1,298
1,450
1,578
239
256
244
3,832
3,913
4,179
October
November
December
-800
-260
-288
2,669
3,196
3,881
1,475
1,281
1,766
248
262
284
3,469
3,456
4,169
January .... ,
February ... »
March
-361
-649
-646
4,074
3,824
3,869
1,427
1,372
1,554
290
296
317
4,435
4,473
4,515
April
May
June ...
-596
-597
-497
3,817
3,885
3,971
1,337
1,340
2,085
339
327
343
4,413
4,482
4,463
July
August
September
-513
-526
-428
4,052
4,200
4,177
1,706
2,036
1,947
368
416
378
4,56^
4,726
4, 60S
October
November . . ,
December .
^418
-664
-441
4,318
4,473
4,560
1,833
1,702
2,250
405
389
362
4,736
5,136
5,002
-304
-476
4,977
5,065
5,380
2,, 304
2,248
P2,281
383
r408
P413
5,281
5,541
5,432
(NA)
5,291
+2
1972
....
1973
January
February
March
April
May
Juns
..
,
-53
+196
5,487
(NA)
July
August
September
•October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect se-ies relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
86
MAY 1973
KCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
515. Balance
on goods, services,
and remittances
250. Balance
on gbodsand
services
Year
and
quarter
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
liMil.dol.)
519. Balance on
current account
and long-term
capital
517. Balance
on current
account
521. Net
liquidity balance
522. Official
reserve transactions balance
530. Liquid
liabilities to1 all
foreigners1®
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1970
898
967
989
712
54-8
588
610
346
133
194
168
-137
-1,251
-605
-347
-856
-1,332
-854
-765
-898
-2,793
-2,065
-1,869
-3,110
42,970
43,375
44,201
43,291
992
158
176
-577
637
-211
-226
-981
201
-688
-770
-1,569
-1,423
-2,877
-3,211
-2,577
-5,721
-9,380
-4,329
-5,425
-6,466
-11,931
-5,948
45,484
51,408
60,761
64,166
-1,303
-1,400
-656
-1,692
-1,783
-1,232
p-1,072
-2,293
-2,318
-1,770
p-1,606
-1,663
-2,346
P-1,523
-3,105
-2,207
-4,501
r-4,100
-3,224
-821
-4,674
r-1,616
66,925
r69,886
75,501
r78,7l9
e-350
CM)
Cm)
CM)
e-6,801
p-10,227
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter .,
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
-1,772
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
-3,717
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
532. Liquid
and Certain
nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies1 ®
Year
and
quarter
(Mil. dol.)
534. U.S.
official
reserve
assets2®
(Mil.dol.)
535. Allocations to the
U.S. of
Special
Drawing
Rights
(Mil.dol.)
Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
Merchandise, adjusted3
Goods and services
Income on investment, military
transactions, other serv., total
252. Exports
253. Imports
536. Exports
537. Imports
540. Exports
541. Imports
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil, dol.)
(Mil. do!.)
(Mil.dol.)
1970
10,231
19,404
20,451
22,262
24,396
17,350
16,328
15,527
14,487
217
217
217
216
15,375
15,762
15,932
15,805
14,477
14,795
14,943
15,093
10,565
10,705
10,462
28,960
34,584
45,915
51,209
14,342
13,504
12,131
12,167
180
179
179
179
16,435
16,770
17,181
15,767
15,443
16,612
17,005
16,344
53,806
54,604
£0,070
r6l,503
12,270
13,339
13,217
13,151
178
178
177
177
17,626
17,436
18,471
p20,014
18,929
Pl2,931
(NO
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
10,269
5,144
5,197
5,227
5,343
4,746
4,964
4,975
4,824
10,872
10,805
11,527
9,583
10,727
11,695
11,914
11,117
5,563
5,965
5,654
6,184
4,716
4,917
5,091
5,227
18,836
19,335
p20,670
11,659
11,561
12,380
13,240
13,490
13,338
13,905
14,923
5,967
5,875
6,091
p6,774
5,439
5,430
P5,747
CM)
p!5,343
pl6,26l
CNA)
CNA)
9,731
9,831
9,968
1971
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
5,498
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49, 50, and 51.
1
2
3
Amount outstanding at end of quarter.
Reserve position at end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).
ItCII MAY
1973
87
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Income on Investments, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)
v
ear
and
quarter
Travel
Income on investments
542. U.S. investments abroad
(Mil.dol.)
543. Foreign
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)
544. Receipts
from foreign travelers in the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)
Transportation and other servicns
Military transactions
545. Payments
by U.S. travelers
abroad
(Mil.dol.)
546. Sales under
military contracts
(Mil.dol.)
547. Military
expenditures
abroad®
(Mil.dol.)
548. Receipts
from
8. Payments
for
(Mil. dot.)
(Mil.dol.)
1970
First quarter .,
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
2,936
2,779
2,863
2,850
1,344
1,322
1,284
1,217
556
574
590
599
936
998
1,027
1,012
273
441
329
436
1,180
1,259
1,210
1,203
1,379
1,403
1,445
1,458
1,286
1,385
1,454
1,392
2,937
3,297
3,015
3,651
1,139
1,106
1,304
1,356
589
590
613
665
1,030
1,082
1,053
1,129
510
516
474
423
1,175
1,214
1,198
1,230
1,527
1,562
1,552
1,445
1,372
1,515
1,536
1,512
3,266
3,205
3,424.
p3,898
1,387
1,41?
1,503
pl,5B5
651
655
667
p735
1,176
1,211
1,122
pi,231
334
281
251
p299
1,218
1,239
1,101
Pl,149
1/716
1?734
1,749
pi,842
1,704
pl,782
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(MA)
1971
First quarter .,
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
(NA)
(HA)
(NA)
I BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Year
and
quarter
Securities investments
Direct investments
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)
561. U.S. investments
abroad
(Mil.dol.)
564. Foreign purchases
of U.S. securities
(Mil.dol.)
585. U.S. purchases
of foreign securities
(Mil. dol.)
570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
675. Banking and othor
capital transactions, net
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1970
First quarter .,
Second cuarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
491
104
245
190
1,279
1,229
882
1,010
304
374
720
792
210
-93
488
337
-1,243
-340
-900
-1,198
-344
-20
19
29
124
1
-374
181
1,290
1,277
1,410
788
559
196
606
921
361
372
249
-73
-1,270
-1,211
-1,249
-892
-961
-533
-a,067
-1,160
-360
350
237
P95
1,266
100
1,116
p857
1,067
956
611
pi,868
393
354
-211
p84
-806
-774
-903
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1971
First qutrter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1972
First qucrter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
714
-1,283
p-1,475
1973
First querter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter,.
Fourth quarter
(NA)
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers an for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not wailable.
Graphs cf these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
MAY 1973
ItCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
RJ FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Defense Indicators
Receipts and Expenditures
Year
and
month
600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (-), national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
264. National
602. Federal
defense purexpenditures,
national income chases
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
647. New orders, defense
products industries
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Bii.dol.)
648. New orders, defense
products
(Bil.dol.)
625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
(Mil.dol.)
1971
January
February
March
-16!6
196 [4
212 [4
72! 5
6,706
6,767
6,763
2,038
2,010
1,528
3.85
3.25
3,28
2.16
2.27
1.68
2,508
2,619
3,398
April
May
June
-23 !o
198.2
221.2
71.2
6,896
6,607
6,036
1,686
1,457
1,340
3.50
3.23
3.63
1.72
1.55
1.66
2,751
2,112
2,367
July
August
September
-23,1
199 ."l
222.2
7o!i
7,734
6,819
5,822
2,577
1,672
1,127
4-25
3.63
3.02
2.04
2.02
1.63
3,082
3,078
2,769
October
November . .
December
-24^7
202^8
227^5
7li9
7,183
6,749
7,380
2,001
1,700
2,096
3.25
3.95
3.69
1.84
2.00
1.72
2,392
3,209
3,016
-14.8
221 ."4
236 ,*3
76!?
7,485
7,725
7,156
2,634
1,994
1,817
3.79
3.45
3.48
2,58
1.77
1.82
3,531
2,971
3,233
-21." 6
224.9
246.' 5
78.'6
7,048
6,853
6,812
1,518
1,247
1,585
3.50
(NA)
1.96
1.53
2.94
2,866
2,848
3,126
July
August
September
-11 ".$
229.8
241.6
75^1
7,336
8,014
6,424
2,213
2,184
1,068
1.52
1.51
2.24
3,093
2,673
2,704
October
November
December
-24! 3
238.4
262.7
73.2
6,991
7,281
6,211
1,610
1,680
1,240
1.66
1.91
1.70
2,840
3,682
2,459
P-7*5
p252l5
r260.0
75*.0
7,004
7,705
7,418
1,766
2,042
1,787
1.91
1.96
r2.25
2,824
2,879
3,185
(NA)
(NA)
p2.17
(NA)
1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
1973
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
Auciust
September
October . .
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
MAY 1973
89
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
0| PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con.
Wholesale price indexes
Year
and
month
750. All
commodities©
58. Manufactured
goods (u)
752. Farm
products
751. Processed
foods and feeds
Industrial commodities
55. Index®
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
3
1971
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
2
Revised
Revised
55c. Change
over 1 -month
spans1
55c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Percent)
Revised3
(a)
111.8
112.8
113-0
111.8
112.4
112.7
111.7
112.7
113.6
109.1
112.3
111.7
112.2
112.5
112.8
0.3
0.1
0.3
3.2
3.7
3.6
113.3
113.8
114-3
113.0
113.5
113.8
113.8
114-5
1U.4
113.0
112.6
114.2
113.3
113.7
113.9
0.4
0.5
0.3
4.4
5.2
4.6
July
August
September
114.6
114.9
114-5
114.5
114.9
114.7
114.5
114-9
114.6
111.3
113.9
112.0
114.5
115.1
115.0
0.6
0.5
rO.O
3.6
2.8
2.8
October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
1U-4
in. 5
115.4
114.5
114-5
115.1
115.0
115-6
116.8
1U-2
114-8
116.3
115.0
114-9
115.3
r-0.1
0.1
rO.3
2.2
2.0
2.6
116.3
117.3
117.4
115.7
116.5
116.7
117.1
118.1
118.4
117.9
118.8
118.3
115.9
116.5
116.8
rO.3
0.4
0.3
3.4
4.0
4.2
April
May
June
117.5
118.2
118.8
116.9
117.4
117.8
118.1
118.5
119.1
119.2
120.9
121.8
117.3
117.6
117.9
0.4
rO.3
0.4
4.0
3.9
3.9
July
August
September
119.7
119.9
120.2
118.3
118.5
118.8
119.9
120.5
121.9
125.5
128.7
130.7
118.1
118.5
118.7
0.2
rO.3
rO.3
3.2
3.3
2.9
October
. .
November
December
1973
January
February
March
120.0
120.7
122.9
118.8
119.2
120.7
122.8
124.5
130.4
128.6
132.4
137.8
118.8
119.1
119.4
rO.l
0.4
rO.2
3.1
4-3
6.3
124.5
126.9
129.7
121.6
123.6
125.7
126.7
144-3
148.5
159.0
160.8
120.0
121.3
122.7
124.4
0.3
1.0
1.2
1.3
9.0
130.7
133.3
136.2
141.1
140.2
January
February
March
April
May
June
. .
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not »'aflect series relationships or (order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA". not available.
Graphs of these series are shown oh page 57.
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month percent changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month percent changes
are placed on the 4th month.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
1
ItCII MAY
1973
91
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Qj WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adj.1
Year
and
month
Real earnings
Current dollar earnings
740. Index
(1967-100)
740c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)
740c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
741. Index
(1967-100)
n
1971
74 1c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)
n
74 1c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
3
( )
859. Real
spendable
avg.wkly.
earnings
nonagri. prod.
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy
workers
74b. Index
(1967 dol.)
Current dollar compensation
(1967-100)
a
( )
0.9
0.6
0.3
7.6
7.8
7.2
105.5
r 106.0
r!06.2
0»5
rO.5
rO,2
r3.6
3.7
r3.7
r91.49
r91.82
r92.08
128.8
128.1
128.9
129.4
0.8
0.6
0.4
6.6
6.6
6.9
r!06.5
106.7
106.7
rQ.3
rO.2
0.0
2.7
2.5
r2.6
92.30
r92.56
r92.40
131! i
July
August
September , . . .
130.1
130.8
131.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
5.9
4.5
6.7
106.9
r!07.3
107.5
0.2
ro.4
rO.2
2.1
rl.4
r3.3
r92.44
r92.58
92.72
132.7
October
November
December
131. a
131.8
133.6
0.3
0.0
1.4
7.2
6.2
6.3
r!07.6
107.5
r!08.5
rO.l
r*0.1
rO.9
r3-9
2.8
r3.3
r93.02
r93.06
r93.70
134- /,
134.6
134.8
135.5
0.7
0.1
0.5
7.6
7.6
5.2
rl09.0
r!08.8
r!09.3
0.5
r-0.2
0.5
4.3
r4-l
r2.7
95-09
r95.32
r95.71
137.3
April
May
June
136.7
136.7
137.1
0.9
0.0
0.3
4.8
5.3
5.8
rl09-9
rl09.7
r!09.9
rO.5
r-0.2
0.2
r2.0
r2.6
r2.0
r96.70
r95.95
r96.07
138.9
J;j|y
August
September
137.8
138.3
139.3
0.5
0.4
0.7
5.7
6.0
7.3
rllO.l
rllO.2
110.4
0.2
0.1
rO.2
rl.8
r2.1
r2.9
r96.39
r96.36
r96.89
140.9
October . . . .
Movember
December
,. .
140.5
140.7
142.0
0.9
0.1
0.9
6.8
6.1
r5.6
rllO.9
rllO.8
rill. 5
0.5
-Q'.l
0.6
r2.2
rO.9
r-0.1
r97.49
r96.98
r96.78
143 3
January
February
March
H2.5
H2.5
r!43.2
0.4
0.0
rO.5
P5.2
rill. 3
rllO.7
rllO.4
-0.2
r-0.5
r-0.3
p-1.3
r95.8l
r96.08
P95.90
pu?!6
April
May
PU4.1
pO.6
pllO.2
p-0.2
January
February
March
126,0
126.7
127.1
ADril
May
June
... .
746n. Chanp 745c. Change
over 1 -quarter over 4 quarter
spans3
spans2
(Ann, rate,
(Ann. ratn,
percent)
percent)
9.0
6,6
7.2
6.6
5.1
6,6
5.1
M
1972
January
February
March .
,. „
9.0
6.1
4.7
6^7
5-9
p?!l
7. a
1973
iplO.6
P96.19
June
July
August
September
•October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"N A", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
11
Ad justed for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifte.
2
Percent changes are centered within the spana: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-quarter ahanfies ara placed
on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 4-quartor changes are placed on tho mlddlo
month of the 3d quarter.
a
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
92
MAY 1973
ItCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Qj WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.
Year
and
month
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy-Con.
Real compensation
746. Index
(1967=100)
746c. Change
over 1 -quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
746c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries®
748. First
year average
changes
749. Average
changes over
life of
contract
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Output per man-hour, total
private economy
770. Index
(1967=100)
770c. Change
over 1 -quarter
spans1
770c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm
(1967-100)
1971
5.6
January
February
March
10?!8
April
May
June
108.5
July
August
September
,108 !g
October
November
December
109! 5
10.6
7.5
8.5
2!2
107 !o
2.*7
105." 8
4.*i
106,' 6
3^2
107! 3
4^2
108^5
4*5
109 .*9
4^7
111. 3
.••
2.7
11.5
2.2
8.2
107.6
3-*0
• •*
1.0
...
3-0
2.7
15.0
3.2
8.7
108 ".5
12.7
3.7
10.6
2!?
109^4
1972
January
February
March
...
no [9
April
May
June
111.4
July
August
September
112.0
October
November
December
112.9
5.4
P9.3
1.6
3.'i
2.2
lloi-5
P7.3
6.2
p7.0
112.2
p8.6
p7.6
P2.9
3.5
3.9
P8.1
3^0
4-1
113^3
p6.8
r5.0
Ijjil.
4.7
P6.3
114.6
114.1
1973
January
February
March
r4.5
pl!4.2
P7.3
P5.5
P4.7
rll6.*0
rll5.3
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"MA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter
changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
BUI MAY 1973
93
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
^^ CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS1
Unemployment rates
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month
841, Total
842. Employed
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
843. Unemployed
844. Males
20 years and
over
(Thous.)
(Percent)
845. Females
20 years and
over
(Percent)
846. Both
sexes 16=19
years of age
(Percent)
848. Negr©
and othor races
847. White
(Percent)
(Perctmt)
1971
January
February
March
83,693
S3, 341
33,413
78,679
78,441
78,417
5,014
4,900
4,996
4.4
4-3
4.3
5.7
5.7
5.9
17.3
16.6
17.1
5.5
5.4
5.5
9.7
9.7
9.5
April
May
June
83,712
83,964
83,498
78,736
78,906
78,653
4,976
5,058
4,845
4.3
4.4 ;
4.3
5.9
5.8
5.7
16.6
17.4
16.5
5.5
5.5
5.4
9.6
10.1
9.3
July
Augus;
September
84,039
84,371
34,503
79,095
79,264
79,476
4,944
5,107
5,027
4.3
4.5
4.4
5.6
5.8
5.7
17.1
16.9
16.7
5.3
5.6
5.4
10.0
9.9
10. a
Octobif
November
Decembor
84,696
85,078
85,145
79,738
79,987
80,040
4,958
5,091
5,105
4-3
4-4
4.4
5.6
5.7
5.7
16.9
16.9
17.1
5.3
5.5
5.4
10.2
9.6
10.5
Januaiy
February
March
85,644
85,518
86,264
80,579
80,594
81,216
5,065
4,924
5,048
4.2
4.1
4.2
5.6
5.1
5.5
17.5
18.5
17.4
5.3
5.2
5.3
10,9
10.6
10.4
April
May
June
86,184
86,431
86,554
81,209
81,458
81,752
4,975
4,973
4,802
4.2
4.1
4.0
5.4
5.7
5.6
16.7
15.7
14.9
5.3
5.2
5.1
9.3
10,3
July
August
September
86,597
86,941
87,066
81,782
82,061
82,256
4,815
4,880
4,810
3.9
3.9
3.8
5.7
5.5
5.4
15.5
16.7
16.2
5.0
5.1
5.0
10.0
9*7
10.0
October
November
December
87,236
87,023
87,267
82,397
82,525
82,780
4,839
4,498
4,487
3.9
3.5
3-4
5.5
5.0
5-1
15-4
15-6
15.7
5.0
4.6
4.6
10.0
10.1
9.6
86,921
87, 569
88,268
82,555
83,127
83,889
4,366
4,442
4,379
5.3
4.9
4.9
14.3
15.8
14.2
4,6
4.6
4.4
9.0
9.0
88,350
83,917
4,433
3.3
3.4
3-4
3.4
4.7
15.4
4.5
9.1
1972
'
9»a
1973
January
February
March
April
May
Jun@
o
tf.9
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement, Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; 'V. estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available,
Graphs of these series are shown on page 60.
1
Beginning with January 1972, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for computing this series. Prior to January 1972, tho
I960 Census io used as the benchmark.
94
MAY 1973
ltd)
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
fflj
ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
207. Gap (potential less actual)
Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
Year
and
quarter
206. Potential level1
205. Actual value
(Ann. rate, bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1970
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1971
720. A
723.2
726.8
718.0
746.4
754-3
762.3
770.4
+26.0
+31.1
+35.5
+52.4
731.9
737.9
742.5
754. 5
778.5
786.7
795.1
803.5
+46.6
+48.8
+52.6
+49.0
766.5
783.9
796.1
811.6
812.0
820.6
829.3
838.0
+45.5
+36.7
+33.2
+26.4
r827.3
847.0
r+19.7
•
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 61.
''Based on a trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter
1962, 3.75 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to the 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and 4.3
percent from 4th quarter 1969 to 1st quarter 1973.
ltd* MAY 1973
95
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
Qgj ANALYTICAL RATIOS
Year
and
month
850. Ratio,
output to capacity,
manufacturing
851. Ratio,
inventories to sales,
manufacturing
and trade
(Percent)
(Ratio)
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to
shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods
industries
(Ratio)
853, Ratio,
production of
business equipment
to consumer goods
(1967-100)
854. Ratio,
personal saving
to disposable
personal income
(Ratio)
857. Vacancy rato
in total rental
housing®
860. Ratio,
hel p-wanted
advertising
to persons
unemployed1
(Ratio)
{Percent)
1971
January
February
March
75*6
1.65
1.63
1.62
2.90
2.88
2.80
84.2
85.3
84.1
0.082
0.463
0.474
0.471
s'.ri
Aarit
May
Juno
75*.6
1.61
1.60
1.59
2.76
2.67
2.58
83.3
82.4
82.3
0.086
0.473
0.471
0.516
5O
July
August
September
7^7
1.61
1.58
1.60
2.62
2.71
2.68
83.5
84.1
84.1
0.081
0.512
0.496
0.485
5^6
October
November
December
7^6
1.61
1.57
1.58
2.65
2.60
2.57
84.2
83.0
83.1
0.078
0.498
0.491
0.496
5! 6
Junuary
February
March
r75.4
1.55
1.56
1.53
2.55
2.54
2.51
83.0
83.5
84.7
0.072
0.523
0.53B
0.542
5*.3
April
May
June
r7?'.6
1.52
1.51
1.52
2.46
2.47
2.58
83.0
83.9
83.9
0.064
0.569
0.575
0.601
5*. 5
July
August
Saptember
r78.4
1.51
1.49
1.49
2.58
2.54
2.57
83.7
85.3
85.8
0.064
0.637
0.653
0.637
5*. 8
October
November
December
rsola
1.47
1.46
1.46
2.52
2.51
2.65
86.4
86.8
87.7
0.076
0.671
0.721
0.776
5! 6
rpSl.'i
1.43
1.42
pi. 41
2.52
2.54
2.62
r89.6
r90.0
r89.9
r 0.066
0.832
r 0.798
r 0.823
3.7
(NA)
(NA)
p89.9
1972
1973
January
February
March
April
May
June
eO.019
July .
August
September
'October
November .
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 62.
Beginning with January 1972, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for computing the unemployment component of this oorios.
Prior to January 1972, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark.
96
MAY 1973
BCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
H9 DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
D 1 . Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing
(21 industries)
1-month
span
9-month
span
06. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
{35 industries)
Oil. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
The Conference Board
{^industries}1
1 -month
span
1-quarter
span
9-month
span
3-quarter
span
D34. Profits,
D19. Index of stock
mfg., FNCB
prices, 500 common stocks
about 1,000
(72 industries) 2 ®
corporations)
1-quarter
span
1 -month
span
9-month
span
023. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month
span
9-month
span
1971
57.1
60.0
57.1
67.1
65-7
80.0
53
29
58
95.8
87.5
71.5
98.6
95.1
91.0
46.2
61.5
80.8
46.2
46.2
46.2
76.2
64.3
66.7
57.1
60.0
58.6
81.4
68.6
71.4
35
53
59
84.0
41.7
27.8
97.2
77.8
56.9
80.8
38.5
46.2
61.5
69.2
69.2
73-8
88.1
77.1
62.9
85.7
76
41
59
••.
73 .5
50.0
64.3
35.7
44.4
23.6
71.5
31.9
43.1
44.4
57.7
61.5
53.8
53.8
53.8
46.2
81.0
78.6
64.3
83.3
85.7
95.2
54-3
64-3
51.4
82.9
91.4
91.4
47
82
51
18.1
95.8
50.7
59.7
65.3
46.2
34-6
61.5
53.8
80.8
84.6
31.0
83.3
45.2
83.3
88.1
88.1
57.1
57.1
74-3
85.7
91.4
84.3
65
82
62
89.6
70.1
76.4
62.5
59.0
68.1
65.4
73.1
76.9
76.9
76.9
84.6
88.1
85.7
85.7
85.7
62.9
42.9
48.6
85.7
88.6
85.7
76
71
64
71.5
21.5
. 43.1
84.7
67.6
43.7
65.4
76.9
73.1
92.3
84.6
84.6
January
February
March
69.0
31.0
78.6
73.8
83.3
81.0
April
May
June
45.2
73.8
54.8
54.8
35.7
19.0
July
...
August
September
....
October
November
December
•
2.8
1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
.
...
0.0
88.1
July
August
September
26.2
71.4
59.5
73-8
42.9
68.6
57.1
88.6
85.7
85.7
47
r88
59.5
16.7
57
...
30.6
76.4
33.8
54.9
54.9
47.9
61.5
65.4
50.0
76.9
61.5
69.2
October
November
December
47.6
r71.4
r64-3
p78.6
52.9
62.9
45.7
88.6
rTl
plOO
59
r85.7
P97.1
33-8
90.1
77.5
42.0
36.2
34.8
61.5
65.4
69.2
76.9
84.6
88.5
r64
59.5
33.3
1973
January
February . .
March
....
April
May
June
P65
r95.2
r47.6
r74-3
26.8
14.5
19.6
P71.4
P45.7
21.7
21.4
62.9
51.4
84.6
84.6
76.9
3
92. 3
61.5
3
65.4
July
August
September
October .
November
December
...
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on 2d
month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index., Table E4 identifies the components
for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 63.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board.
2
Based on 72 components through August 1972, on 71 components through January 1973, and on 69 components thereafter.
Component data are not shown in table E4 but are available from the source agency.
3
Average for May 1, 8, and 15.
MAY 1973
97
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
jffl DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Leading Ind cators-Con.
Year
and
month
05. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas)1
1-month
span
9-month
span
D41. Number of employees
on nonagricultural payrolls
(30 industries)
1 -mo nth
span
6-month
span
047. Index of industrial
production (24 industries)
058. Index of wholesale
prices {22 manufacturing
industries)®
054. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month
span
1 -month
span
1 -month
span
6-month
span
6-month
span
(a)
1971
9-month
span
(y)
January
February . .
March
38.3
61.7
42.6
46.8
61.7
72.3
38.3
30.0
33-3
45.0
53-3
40.0
54.2
50.0
41.7
70.8
70.8
72.9
79.5
75.0
72.7
77.3
81.8
81.8
43.5
65.2
73.9
80.4
07.0
April
May
June
48.9
U.7
40.4
57.4
21.3
48.9
75.0
83.3
36.7
40.0
51.7
65.0
79.2
58.3
56.2
62.5
. 64.6
75.0
68.2
72.7
72.7
90.9
95.5
86.4
73.9
52.2
73.9
(m)
(WO
(NA)
July
August
September
57.4
25.5
46.8
42.6
57.4
63.8
43.3
65.0
90.0
63.3
58.3
63.3
52.1
45.8
75.0
62.5
66.7
62.5
86.4
90.9
38.6
86.4
72.7
77.3
(MA)
87.0
39.1
(NA)
October
November
December
57.4
66.0
59.6
70.2
74-5
57.4
60.0
71.7
53.3
80.0
90.0
78.3
58.3
60.4
54.2
70.8
87.5
87.5
25.0
45.5
68.2
75.0
77.3
86.4
47.8
78.3
37.0
91.3
.,
42.6
. . .
59.6
68.1
63.8
76.6
80.0
68.3
83.3
91.7
91.7
86.7
70.8
70.8
66.7
95.8
37.5
37.5
86.4
90.9
79.5
90.9
95.5
95.5
45.7
71.7
87.0
100.0
91.3
100.0
„
55.3
36.2
53.2
78.7
57.4
70.2
78.3
78.3
68.3
85.0
81.7
85.0
79.2
50.0
64.6
S3. 3
83.3
95.8
77.3
90.9
79.5
95.5
100.0
100.0
47.8
69.6
37.0
89.1
91.3
95.7
July
August
September
66.0
66.0
46.8
83.0
61.7
80.9
28.3
83.3
80.0
83.3
83.3
88.3
52.1
77.1
83.3
87.5
87.5
S3. 3
79.5
75.0
81.8
90.9
90.9
88.6
69.6
76.1
30.4
95.7
69.6
91.3
October
November
December
59.6
81.9
38.3
91.5
93.6
61.7
88.3
85.0
76.7
90.0
93.3
r91-7
70.8
66.7
56.3
87.5
P91.7
91.7
68.2
84.1
86.4
95.5
95.5
100.0
100.0
28.3
52.2
100.0
100.0
p82.6
P83-3
r62.5
r91.7
62.5
P91.7
95.5
97.7
95.5
100.0
84.8
r76.1
r73.9
(HA)
(HA)
(HA)
(Itt)
(NA)
1972
January
February
March
April
May . .June
46. a
1973
January
February
March
67.0
74.5
36.2
71.7
r83.3
r80.0
April
May
June ,
53.2
P68.3
P75.0
95.5
p21.7
July
August
September
October
November
December ... ,
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising {half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the2d
month, 6-month hdexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index 058 which requires
no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®.
Graphs of thesti series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
1
Component data are not available for publication and therefore are not shown in table E4.
Data beginning with August 1971 are not comparable with earlier data due to a revised sample.
98
MAY 1973
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1972
1973
Diffusion index components
September
October
November
December
January
March1*
February
April P
01. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING1
(Average weekly hours)
+
All manufacturing industries
Percent rising of 21 components
40.8
40.7
(60)
(48)
(60)
42.4
41-1
40.2
+
-
42.4
39.7
39.9
o
+
+
42.3
41.0
40.3
42.4
39.9
39.0
4+
+
r42.7
r40.6
r40.6
+
o
42.3
41.0
40.6
+
+
41.9
41.3
40.7
+
41.1
42.4
+
o
r42.2
o
42.2
42.2
+
+
42.5
42.4
41.4
42.4
+
+
41.9
42.8
-
41.7
42.7
+
o
42.0
42.7
-
40.4
42.3
+
+
r43.3
-
40.6
42.1
+
+
40.9
43.5
40.7
39.2
+
-
40.9
39.1
+
40.7
40.9
-
+
40.3
(21)
(33)
40.9
o
40.9
+
(48)
(95)
41.1
(71)
Durable goods industries:
-
42.2
o
40.5
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
o
+
41.9
42.0
-f+
42.2
42.3
+
41-8
42.8
-
41.5
42.3
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
+
41.1
42.4
+
-
41.3
42.3
+
+
41.6
42.7
+
o
41.7
42.7
Electrical equipment and supplies
Transportation equipment
+
40.6
o
40.6
a. 5
+
+
40.8
42.0
+
40.5
42.8
Instruments and related products
. .
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
+
o
40.7
39.5
40.6
39-2
+
40.5
39.3
+
-
40.6
-
39.1
-
40.4
38.7
+
+
40.8
39.3
-
40.2
34.1
+
+
40.4
35.8
-
40.3
35.5
+
+
40.4
35.6
-
40.1
33-9
+
+
40.2
35.6
o
+
40.2
36.0
o
+
40.2
36.4
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
+
+
41.4
36.3
.
.
41.2
36.2
+
o
41.4
36.2
_
-
41.2
35.7
-
39.5
34.5
+
+
41.1
36.0
+
+
41-3
36.1
+
+
41.9
36.4
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
+
42-9
38.2
o
42-9
38.0
+
+
43.2
38.3
-
42.9
37.7
+
42.6
37.8
+
+
43.0
38.0
o
o
43.0
38.0
o
o
43.0
38.0
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
•f
+
41-8
42.3
+
+
o
42.4
41.9
42.2
-
41.6
41.9
+
o
42.0
-42.4
r£L.9
o
+
42.0
42.0
+
41.7
42.2
„
41.1
38.7
+
41.2
37.7
+
o
41.6
37.7
_
+
41.1
37.1
+
+
+
+
41.6
37.9
+
41.5
38.8
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
+ 41.3
•f
-
+ 41.9 -
42.4
41.1
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c
Leather and leather products
;. .
.
.
a. 9
42.0
o
_
-
41.2
36.4
06. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
+ 36,851
Percent rising of 35 components
Primary metals . .
Fabricated metal products
- 36,759
(57)
.
+ 37,619
(53)
- 37,562
+ 39,414
(46)
(63)
r41.5
37.7
2
+ 40,087
+ 42,342
(51)
(63)
- 41,486
(46)
(74)
+
5,859
3,691
-
5,727 +
3,554, -
5,914
3,417
+
+
5,968 - +
3,811 +
6,206
3,882
+
+
6,666
4,045
+,
o
7,510
4,044
-
6,956
3,907
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
+
+
6,006
5,025
+
+
6,074
5,174
+
+
6,423
5,322
+
-
6,583
5,189
+
+
6,709
5,262
+
6,509
5,563
+
+
7,046
5,844
-
6,901
5,565
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries
+
+
8,758
7,512
+
-
8,990
7,240
+
8,849
7,694
-
8,480
7,531
+
-
9,837
7,518
+
9,330
7,974
+
+
9,785
8,113
+
+
9,851
8,306
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) - rising, (o) = unchanged, and {-) - falling. NA = not available,
p = preliminary, r = revised.
'Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are all included in the
totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here.
MAY 1973
99
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1973
1972
Diffusion index components
September
October
November
January
December
May1
April
March
February
023. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES2
Indjstrial materials price
inJex(19673100)
4
124.8 4
128.1 4
131-6
+
134-3 4
139.3 +
147.5
+
155-3 4 158.2
•fr 160.6
(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components . .
Copper scrap {Ib )
Lead scrap (Ib.)
Steel sc'ap (ton)
Tin(lbl
Zinc (Ib )
Burlap (yd)
(50)
. . . .
Cotton (Ib ) 12-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool taps (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.)
Rosin UQOIb.)
Rubber (Ib )
Tallow (Ib.)
4
o
.
+
4
4
4
+
(62)
.440 +
.059
36.929 4
1.826 o
.179 o
.187
.291
.333
1.868
-396
18.850
.181
.069
+
4
+
4
4
.446
.056
39.707
1.826
.179
.184
.271
.3-42
1.962
-483
18.549
.207
.073
(69)
(65)
4
4
4
o
+
+
4
+
4
.U8
.057
40.340
1.713
.179
.176
.304
.375
2.087
-495
20.186
.204
.072
4
+
4
4
4
4
+
4
+
.434
.056
43.121
1.710
.182
.179
.324
.404
2.309
.476
20.708
.219
.076
(85)
4
4
4
4
.463
.055
43.236
1.796
.188
.183
4
4
4
+
4
.192
+
4
+
4
4
4
-353
.409
2.497
.481
20.667
.228
.077
4
.363
.406
2.676
.488
20.728
.251
.091
4
4
4
4
4
4
.492
.059
42.757
1.967
.195
(62)
(77)
(85)
(65)
4 .526 +
4 .062
4 43-265 44 2.032
+ .199 +
4 .195 +
4 .377 4
.402
+ 3.539 .408
- 20.708 4
+ .290 4
4
.101 +
.570 + .594
.061 + ,062
47.418 -47,195
1.980 4 2,067
.205 o .205
.201 4 .202
.418 4 .465
.396
- .395
3.296 - 5.712
.326
+ .336
20.851 + 21.081
.309 - .306
.113 + .m
4r74,933 4
75,042
041. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 3
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls
4
Percent rising of 30 components . .
Qrdminee and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone; clay and glass products .
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
MacHnery, except electrical
Electrical equipment .
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Foo j and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
Papur and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction .
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade . . . . .
Finance insurance, real estate
Service
Federal government
State and local government
o
4
o
+
4
44
+
4
o
+
4
+
4
+
4
o
+
4
+
+
+
4
+
+
+
73,176 4
73,589 4
73,899
(80)
(88)
(85)
102
96 +
93 +
528 4
530 +
537
413 +
417 4
419
530 4
538 +
540
1,017 4 1,028 + 1,029
1,058 4 1,068 + 1,074
1,252 4 1,279 4 1,302
1,248 4 1,279 4 1,290
1,247 4 1,276 4 1,294
281 4
288
285 4
332 +
337
335 +
1,172
1,170 4
1,171
57
54 o
54 4
4
881
874
4
887
1,167 +
1,171 + 1,178
546
547
541 +
658 4
659 o
659
4
587
585
4
590
118 4
117 4
119
494 +
504 4
514
261
258
263
606 +
610
609
3,568 3,551 +
3,524
4,540 4
4,499 4
4,549
3,946 +
3,954 4
3,959
11,848 4 11,881 + 11,995
3,969 + 3,981
3,953 4
12,379 + 12,451 4 12,497
2,630 +
2,642
2,634 10,741 + 10,767 4 10,819
+ 74,026 4
(77)
o
+
+
4
4
4
4
4
o
4
4
4
4
4
+
o
o
4
+
4
4
+
4
4
4
102
538
421
538
1,033
1,082
1,318
1,309
1,306
288
'
339
1,175
59
895
1,172
547
660
590
119
518
266
607
3,452
4,558
3,970
11,976
3,991
12,549
2,652
10,852
74,245 4 r74,725
(72)
o
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
o
4
o
4
+
o
o
4
4
+
4
4
4
4
4
-
102
539
424
539
1,031
1,092
1,324
1,318
1,310
292
339
1,181
59
894
1,161
548
662
590
119
522
252
610
3,502
4,574
4,001
11,988
3,999
12,621
2,637
10,844
(80)
(83)
4
4
4
4
o
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
103
r542
425
r547
rl,031
rl,103
rl,328
rl,337
rl,324
295
r3U
rl,!85
4
61
+
4
4
902
rl,173
552
661
r587
rl!5
529
r252
r6l3
r3,594
r4,580
r4,022
r!2,105
r4,014
r!2,682
2,632
rlO,905
4
o
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
Pl02
543
427
r550
1,026
rl,106
rl,340
rl,348
rl,331
297
r344
r 1,183
r63
r901
rl,174
r554
662
r592
rl!6
r530
r252
r6ll
4 r3,609
+ r4,589
4 r4,027
+ r!2,188
4 r4,024
4 12,695
4 r2,634
4rlO,929
4
4
4
+
4
4
4
4
o
4
+
4
44
+
4
o
(68)
4
103
4
547
4
432
4
551
4 1,032
+
1,119
4 1,354
+ 1,366
+ 1,357
+
298
o
344
1,180
4
65
o
901
+ 1,189
550
+
663
590
115
+
535
4
254
603
3,550
o 4,591
4
4,039
- 12,149
4 4,031
4 12,726
2,626
-f 10,987
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (4) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and H = falling. NA = not available,
p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Average for May 1, 8, and 15.
^Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The industrial materials price index is not
seasonally adjusted.
3
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
100
MAY 1973
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1972
1973
Diffusion index components
September
November
October
January1*
December
February1"
March1"
' April P
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1
(1967=100)
All industrial production
+
2
Percent rising of 24 components
Durable manufactures:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metats
.
Fabricated metal products
116.1 +
(71)
(83)
....
°
Machinery and allied goods
Nonelectrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments
,
Lumber clay, and glass . .
Clay, glass, and stone products ...
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous manufactures
.... +
4
117.5 +
ll?!! +
115.2 +
118.5
+
(67)
119! 3 +
117.5 4
12o! 2
118.8
108.8 4
110.4
102.1 +
122.9 -f
no! 6
119.2
(56)
119.9
126! 6
118.6
+
110.2
105.0
123.3
4
-f
-
110.5
116.0
105.9
122.6
4
_
+
4
112 i 3 +
115.2 4
106.7 +
127.2 4
120.'6
119.9
10?! 0
109.7
122.4
+
+
4
4
+
4
119.*!
122.8
4
+
120.0
128.1 +
119!?
128.2
-
118.9
124.3
+
+
U.9.5
126.8
116.1 +
135.4 -
117 .*4 +
134.0 +
118.5
134.5
118.4
109.3
+
+
+
119.9
109.5
+
-
134!Z
111.3
121.1
135.6
-
+
+
+
116.6
105.5
+
+
124.*!
109.4
+
+
127 .*9 *•
112.4 t-
1333
.
+
Chemicals petroleum, and rubber .
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
+
+
-
143 .*4
120.7
149.6
-f+
143^8
124.1
148.2 +
14U5
123.4
151.3
o
+
+
Foods and tobacco
Foods
Tobacco products
4
-
120.0
103.0
+
118*. 2 4
111.8 f
119.*4
112.5
4
-
102.5
+
4
104.2
112.1
f
-f
112.7
101.0
110.5
-
+
4
123.4
+
122.*3 +
95.2 4
136!?
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Mining:
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Metal stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
...
91.6
94.9
4 iu! 6
129.2
118.2
110.3
130.8
126ii
128,5
4
125.0
128.7
+
4
119.1 + 122.3 +
142.1 4
140.5 +
123 !o
142.6
-
118.4
106.0
4
4
111.5
121.1
4
4
...
.*
122i7
123.6
+
4
4
no.o
+
(63)
+
122 i 4 4
4 122.5 +
112.9
116.0
121.8
118. 5
106.8 +
88.6
80.1
119.' 9
108.0
81.3
+
4
+
+
I32.i
111.5
+
+
135 !o
113.0
+
-
136!I
112.2
141. *5
124.8
154.4
4
+
+
145.*4
129.0
156.7
4
4
146! 2
125.0
160.1
4
4
150.* 1
124.4
162.6
119! 5
- ngio
4
4
121.0
110.3
-
119.7
120.5
4
-
101.9
108.2
4
-
106.0
106.5
4
4
140.8
-
136! 9
97.7
87.4
4
4
125!7
125.0
4
+
4
4
115 is
120.0
111.2
135.1
4
127.3
(HA)
(NA)
135.2
(NA)
(NA)
4
113.2
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
84.7
85.1
123.0
(75)
+
- lie!?
....
•f
(92)
(63)
+
+
+
+
99.8
+
+
-
+
Nondurable manufactures:
Textiles, apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products . . . .
Leather and products
+
121.3
99.3
112.6
97.0
+
107.9
108.2
+
108.6
+ nils
4
138." 6
95.8
97.1
96.0
98.4
99.1
(NA)
4
112.8
4
4
149.8
150.6
(NA)
(NA)
4
4
(NA)
120.3
121.2
(NA)
f
-
100.4
107.6
109.2
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: {+} = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. NA - not available,
p - preliminary, r = revised.
^ata are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
MAY 1973
101
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1972
1973
Diffusion index components
September
October
February
March
40,707
+ r41,242
4- r41,939
(85)
(76)
(74)
January
December
November
April
D54, SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Millions of dollars)
All retail sates
-
Pfrcen t rising o f 23 componen ts ^
Grocery stores
Eating and dr nking places
Department stores .
...
..
Mail-order houses {department store merchandise)
Variety storgs
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apptrei, accessory stores
Shoe stores
,
+
(30)
.. .
+
+
.....
+
+
Furniture, home furnishings stores
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards buildinq materials dealers
Hardware stores
Passenger car £nd other automotive dealers
Tire, battery siccussory dealers .
..
Gasolino service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
1 iquor stores ,
37,746
+
....
, .
-
39,106
-
+
(28)
(100)
7,438 +
2,830 +
4,007 +
425 +
38,713
7,637 2,873 +
4,092 457
39,417
+
(52)
7,570 2,913 +
3,937 +
442
7,503
2,957
4,008
391
+
+
4+
643 +
445
710 +
344 +
671
438
730
347
+
+
+
4-
634
433
701
318
+
+
+
+
1,034
580
1,406
340
+
+
+
+
1,093 o
602
1,427 353 +
1,093 591 +
1,390 357
1,048
601
1,379
332
+
+
+
+
6,888
615
2,611
1,204
767
+
+
+
+
+
7,195 +
658
2,686 1,226 +
800
7,215 +
610
2,681 +
1,250 763
7,729
571
2,713
1,236
740
+
+
o
+
+
663
468
718
350
7,894
3,057
4,101
442(
- r7,800 4o r3,057 +
4- r4,212 +
+
r455 +
-
41,326
(22)
7,834 +
3,094 4,442 502 -
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
731 50S
820
40§ -
(NA
(NA
(NA
(NA)
r681
r471
r788
r348
4+
+
+
1,145
640
1,545
370
+ rl,215
+
r659
+ rl,556
+
r381
4+
+
1,195
669
1,559
401
+
-
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
7,904
603
2,714
1,246
759
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
8,111
655
2,777
1,260
791
44=
-
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
125.7 +
126.7
703
476
741 +
349
r7,945
r630
r2,821
rl,254
r79S
D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES3
(1967=100)
All manufacturing industries ...
+
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture an:J household durables
Nonmetallic minerals products
{ ron and steel
118.8
o
(82)
Percent rising of 22 components
118.8 +
(68)
119.2 +
123.6 +
(96)
(98)
151.0
112.6
128.2
131.9
117.9
124.4
125-2
123.9
161.0
113.1
128.4
133.0
121.0
124-7
125.8
124.3
121.5
111.0
118.2
117.1
+
4-f
+
+
4+
4-
173-2
113.5
129.0
133.3
128.3
125.0
126.7
124.9
-f
+
+
+
182.0
1H.1
130.0
134.0
+
+
+
+
131.4
125.7
127.3
125-6
+
+
+
+
122.4
111.3
118.6
117.9
4>
4+
+
123.1
111.7
119.0
113.6
(96)
(96)
117.2
123.1
124.9
123.3
149-8
112.4
127.4
129-5
117.4
123-3
124.8
123-4
4+
+
4+
4+
+
4+
o
120.8
110.6
117.0
115.0
+
o
+
-f
121.0
110.6
118.4
115.1
+
+
_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-f
121.1 4110.9 +
118.2 o
115.8 +
+
+
+
+
+
4+
o
+
+
123-1
124.2
107.1
109.5
115.9
115.0
104.7
111.5
109.8
144.0
+
+
+
+
+
129.4
124.8
108.8
110.3
116.0
+
+
+
+
+
132.4
126.0
114.5
111.4
116.5
+
4+
+
+
137.0
128.2
119.2
111.8
116.8
+
+
+
4+
H1.4
130.0
127.7
115.2
117.0
+
4+
4-
139-8
133.3
129.8
118.7
117.7
+
+
+
o
-
115.1
104.8
112.0
109.8
142.2
+
+
+
4+
115.8
105.1
112.3
110.0
143.9
4+
+
+
+
116.5
105.6
118.7
110.1
144-9
+
444-
118.3
106.7
119.4
110.3
143.5
4+
+
+
+
119.8
107.7
127.9
110.6
145.0
148.5
112.0
126.9
128.8
+
o
4+
149.2
112.0
127.3
128.9
+
+
o
+
149.4
112.3
127.3
129.0
Nonferrous rnetals
Fabricated st'uctural metal products
Miscellaneous; metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
+
+
o
o
117.4
122.7
124-7
123.0
+
+
+
117.3
123.0
124.8
123-2
+
+
+
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
+
o
o
+
120.9
110.6
118.5
115.2
o
-
120.9
110.5
116.9
115.0
4+
+
+
121.8
123.6
102.5
108.6
115.3
o
+
+
o
+
121.8
124.0
106.6
108.6
115.6
+
o
+
o
+
114.3
104.4
111.3
109.5
135.7
+
o
+
o
+
114-7
104.4
111.5
109.5
139.8
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined . . . .
Rubber and plastic products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
121.6 +
+
4+
+
4+
4-
+
+
+
+
Nondurable goods:
Processed foorlsand feeds
Cotton products
Wool products;
Manmade fiber textile products . ,
Apparel
120.7 +
(86)
(84)
NOTE: To facilitate intepretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+} = rising, (o) = unchanged, and H falling. NA° not available.
p = preliminary, r «= revised.
'Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
K
The
3
102
MAY 1973
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
HI
CONSUMER PRICES
Q| INDUSTRIAL P R O D U C T I O N
781. United
States,
index of
consumer
prices®
133. Canada,
index of
consumer
prices @
132. United
Kingdom,
index of
consumer
prices®
135. West
Germany,
index of
consumer
prices®
136. France,
index of
consumer
prices®
138. Japan,
index of
consumer
prices®
137. Italy,
index of
consumer
prices®
47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production
123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production
122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production
126. France,
index of
industrial
production
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
119
119
120
113
113
114
123
124
125
111
112
113
120
121
121
125
125
125
112
113
113
105
106
106
115
115
116
113
110
109
127
129
131
April
May
June
120
121
122
115
115
115
128
128
129
114
114
115
122
123
123
127
127
127
113
114
114
106
107
107
115
116
116
111
111
112
128
127
130
July
August
September
122
122
122
116
117
117
130
130
130
115
115
116
124
124
125
127
126
131
114
115
115
107
106
107
117
123
125
111
111
112
132
132
136
October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
122
123
123
117
117
118
131
132
132
116
117
117
126
126
127
131
129
129
116
117
117
107
107
108
125
124
124
111
111
110
135
136
135
123
124
124
118
119
119
133
134
134
118
119
119
127
128
128
130
130
131
117
118
118
109
110
111
125
126
127
110
101
112
138
137
139
April
May
June
124
125
125
120
120
120
136
136
129
130
130
132
133
133
119
120
137
120
120
121
120
113
113
113
129
128
129
114
116
116
138
1U
140
July
August
September
126
126
126
122
122
123
138
139
139
122
122
123
131
132
133
133
134
135
121
122
123
114
115
116
129
128
129
117
117
117
143
143
143
October
November
December
1973
January
February
March
127
127
127
123
123
124
141
142
143
124
124
125
134
135
136
136
135
137
124
125
126
118
118
119
133
134
135
118
119
120
143
147
rl48'
128
129
130
125
126
126
144
rU4
145
126
127
128
136
136
136
138
140
143
127
128
120
121
122
p!35
(NA)
rl!9
p!21
(NA)
151
p!51
(NA)
131
128
(NA)
Year
and
month
1971
January
February
March
. .
....
April . .
May
June
(NA)
' (NA)
(NA)
(NA)
p!23
July
August .
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.
BCII MAY
1973
103
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
^H STOCK PRICES
Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION-Con.
Year
and
month
125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production
128. Japan, 121.0ECD, 1
European
index of
countries,
industrial
production index of
industrial
production
127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production
19. United
States,
index of
stock
prices, 500
common
stocks®
143. Canada,
index of
stock
prices @
142. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices ®
146. Franca,
index of
stock
prices®
145. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices @
148. Japan,
index of
stock
prices®
147. Italy,
index of
stock
prices®
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
{1967=100}
1971
January
Februaiy
March
138
139
138
164
164
168
126
126
126
117
117
116
102
106
108
108
108
109
123
122
120
136
139
137
125
134
137
145
151
161
91
94
93
April
May
June
HO
138
138
165
158
168
127
126
127
113
113
114
112
111
108
112
108
109
131
146
147
137
141
140
135
138
137
171
172
182
89
85
83
July
August
September
139
134
138
169
168
171
128
125
129
112
104
117
108
106
108
109
107
108
157
158
164
141
135
128
135
136
129
190
179
170
83
82
78
October
November
Oecerr ber
1972
January
February
March
138
137
129
167
170
170
129
129
127
116
117
119
106
101
108
110
98
107
160
156
165
118
124
124
124
124
133
166
168
178
78
75
77
140
137
140
r!73
r!75
r!79
131
127
131
119
117
115
112
114
117
117
119
121
175
180
186
128
130
140
137
146
152
195
204
215
73
76
74
April
May
June
142
H2
139
r!78
r!79
r!82
132
133
132
114
117
117
118
117
118
121
123
127
191
194
184
147
155
147
157
161
159
230
241
257
79
80
78
July
August
September
141
138
U4
r!82
r!85
r!87
133
132
135
114
112
115
117
121
119
126
134
133
187
195
185
156
162
163
159
165
160
273
290
300
ao
ao
October
November .
December
1973
January
February
March
144
146
149
r!90
r!93
r!99
137
138
140
124
122
124
119
125
128
133
134
141
180
186
191
164
153
149
155
156
155
309
327
354
81
86
&
r!51
P154
(NA)
r204
P205
(NA)
r!41
P143
(NA)
pl!8
(NA)
129
124
122
146
H5
143
182
168
164
174
173
174
167
165
173
387
364
363
83
P85
P94
120
pl!7
142
P137
168
pl66
rp!79
pl87
rp!72
P156
rp346
P341
rp97
p!02
AprL
May
June
July
August
Sepiember
79
,.
• October
November
December
NCTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Gniphs of these series are shown on pages 67 and 68.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
104
MAY 1973
!!€!»
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered
Monthly series
Cl
1
C
T/c
I/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
2.25
1.79
1.87
1.56
1.56
1.66
2.67
1.82
1.51
1.50
1.48
1.55
1.45
1.51
1.53
1.56
1.56
1.47
10.14
14.33
1.94
2.46
2.65
1.85
1.64
1.94
5.57
2.29
7.96
9.09
9.95
3.60
1.56
1.63
1.77
1.61
1.53
1.46
1.52
1.58
1,43
1.53
2.86
5.78
2.82
2.08
4.73
2.4A
3.80
1.91
1.51
1.57
1.54
1.56
1,72
1.51
1.64
1.54
12.47
33.86
14.87
17.67
11.21
11.29
2.86
5.78
2.82
3.15
4.73
8.52
9.62
3.80
4.09
1.12
3.89
10.62
13.94
33.86
3.52
3.89
13.94
C
MCD
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
*1.
*5.
*6
8
9
*10
*12,
13
14.
Average workweek of production workers, mfg
Avg. initial claims, State unemploy. insurance
New orders durable goods industries
Construction contracts, total value
.
Construction contrasts commercial and industrial
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
Liabilities of business failures @
*17.
*19
*23.
24.
28
*29.
*41
42.
46
*47.
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
Stock prices 500 common stocks <§}
Industrial materials prices (Q)
New orders, tapital goods industries, nondefense
New private housing units started total
New building permits, private housing
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Help-wanted advertising
Industrial production
Jan. '53-Aug. 71...
Jan. '53-June 70 . . .
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-Jul. 71 ...
Jan. '59-May 70 ...
Jan. '53-Oct. 72 ...
Jan. '53-Aug. 71 ...
Jan. '53-Dec. 70 ...
Jan. '53-Dec. '69 ...
Jan. '53-Dec. 71 ...
48
*52
53.
*54
55
*56.
58
59.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Personal income
'
Wages, salaries in. mining, mfg., construction
Sales of retail stores
Wholesale prices, industrial commodities (G)
Manufacturing and trade sales
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (§)
Retail sales, deflated
Jan. '53-Oct. 72 ...
Jan. '53-Oct. 72 ...
Jan. '53-Aug. 71 ...
Jan. '53-Sep. 70 ...
Jan '53-Oct 70 . .
Jan. '53- Oct. 7 2 . . .
Jan '53-Oct 70 .
Jan. '53-Apr 72 ...
Jan. '53-Aug. 71 ...
Jan. '53-Dec. 70 ...
Jan. '53-Oct. 72.,.
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan '53-Jul 71
Jan. '53-Apr. 71 ...
Jan '53-Apr 71
Jan. '53-Feb. 71 ...
..
. . .
Jan. '53-Aug. 71 ...
*62.
65.
66.
69.
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Book value, mfrs.' inventories of finished goods
Consumer installment debt
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
*72 Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Jan, '53- Oct. 72...
Jan. '53- Oct. 72...
Jan '53-Oct 72
Jan. '53-Oct. 72...
Jan. '53-May 71 ...
Jan. '53-Oct. 72 ...
0.46
4.86
3.38
6.68
9.08
5.00
.85
0.42
4.32
2.97
6.41
8.94
4.71
.63
2.50
2.23
22.11
21.50
.62
2.4-9
1.74
1.39
4.29
7.05
4.12
3.93
6.74
3.58
.29
.33
2.55
.55
.98
.13
.25
1.49
0.17
2.10
1.29
1.54
1.12
1.39
.60
.93
2.20
.27
1.59
.88
1.40
1.52
1.82
.25
.20
1.97
.89
.50
.68
.40
.59
.80
.91
.19
.21
.89
.28
.26
.50
.77
.10
.72
.14
.77
.28
.53
.60
.45
.16
.61
.16
.39
.59
.60
.81
.49
.28
.11
.28
.52
.79
1.00
1.78
.52
.86
1.33
810
811.
813
814
815
816
12 leading indicators reverse trend adjusted
12 leading indicators prior to reverse trend adj
Marginal employment adjustments
Capital investment commitments . .
.
Inventory investment and purchasing
Profitability
.
..
.
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-Jan. 72 ...
Jan. '53-Apr. 71 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
.95
.86
.89
.85
.84
.93
825
817.
820
830.
5 coincident indicators deflated
Sensitive financial flows
5 coincident indicators
6 lagging indicators
Jan '53-Jan. 72
Jan. '53-Apr. 71
Jan. '53-Juty 71
Jan. '53-July 71
..
...
...
...
.88
.96
.90
.86
Wholesale prices manufactured goods (S)
Exports, excluding military aid .
Export orders durables except motor vehicles
Export orders nonelectrical machinery
General imports
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Department obligations procurement
Jan '53-Oct. 70
Jan. '59-May 71
Jan. '63-Jan. 71
Jan '57-Dec. 70
Jan. '59-May 71
July '53-Sep. 70
Jan '56-Dec. 70
.
...
...
.
...
...
...
Military contract awards in U.S
New orders defense products industries
Average hourly earnings of production workers .
Real avg hourly earnings of production workers
Wholesale prices all commodities ©
Wholesale prices processed foods and feeds
Wholesale prices farm products
Jan. '53-Dec. 70
Jan. '53-Jul. 71
Jan '64-Jan. 72
Jan '64-Jan 72
Jan. '53-Sep. 70
Jan.'53-May71
Jan. '53-May 71
1.40
.17
.29
.51
1.02
.50
.81
1.17
.54
.54
.50
.66
.70
.53
.76
.66
.65
.48
.43
.68
.44
.73
.39
.74
.80
..84
.45
.30
2.48
2.06
2.31
4.15
8.00
3.39
1.05
2.41
9.77
3
3
3
5
6
4
2
3
6
2.06
1.09
1.11
2.80
4.44
1.94
3
2
2
3
5
2
1
2
1
1
.51
1.25
.76
.74
.98
.49
.84
1.72
.67
1.18
.89
•2.00
1.73
.54
.u
1.37
.34
.36
.44
.71
.82
.78
1.38
1.63
.77
.60
2.15
.61
.37
0.84
.73
.75
.87
C1)
.89
.57
.83
(X)
.81
.62
.69
.98
>.84
.98
.51
.64
.76
.74
3.50,
9.88
8.71
14.93
8.22
6.44
8.76
10.85
11.10
7.56
10.77
18.58
14.33
10.15
10.81
3.81
4.10
3.67
3.15
2.91
3.17
4.36
3.14
2.65
3.40
4.08
3.78
3.06
2.81
3.11
5.57
3.57
3.50
3.60
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
3
.98
.49
.84
.96
.67
.62
.89
2
1
1
.97
.54
.14
13.94
1.60
1.45
1.57
,2
1
1
1
.68
.34
.36
.44
1.96
8.78
8.15
5.78
1.44
1.51
1.62
1.62
12.47
33.86
20.00
13.17
3.03
8.78
8.15
5.78
1
1
1
2
2
1
.71
.82
.78
.64
.92
.77
3.87
2.78
3.42
2.01
2.18
3.12
1.54
1.56
1.66
1.46
1.58
1.71
11.00
12.67
3.87
2.78
3.42
4.08
3.01
3.12
1
3
1
1
.60
.95
.61
.37
5.30
2.01
5.29
7.16
1.53
1.68
1.48
1.53
17.54
1
6
6
4
4
6
6
.89
f1)
3.80
1.61
1.41
1.65
1.92
1.51
1.47
1.64
1.61
1.37
1.52
1.78
1.51
1.46
6
6
1
2
2
2
3
?!
1.43
1.57
.26
.60
.89
.93
.88
96.00
1.40
1.51
1.60
1.55
1.68
1.63
1.56
1
2
1
1
3
2
2
.56
.63
.71
.24
.68
.90
.65
5.07
2.82
3.91
.75'
9.13
9.95
9.95
7.74
8.42
14.80
17.08
4.H
5.30
3.95
5,29
7,16
0. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
58
502
506
508
512
616
621
625.
647
740
741
750
751
752
781 . Consumer prices, all items ©
782 Consumer prices food
783 Consumer prices commodities less foods
784 Consumer prices services (§)
841 Total civilian labor force
842 Total civilian employment
843. Number of persons unemployed
...
•
.14
6.22
12.17
12.00
6.35
4.52
6.05
4.18
12.31
23.36
12.06
23.17
...
...
...
.
...
...
...
19.35
18.22
.44
.23
.30
.59
_1.15
19.26
18.10
.11
.16
.24
.48
Jan. '53-Oct. 70 ...
Jan. '53-May 71 ...
Jan. '56-May 71 ...
Jan '56-Oct 70 .
Jan. '53-Dec. 71 . . .
Jan. '53-Dec. 71 ...
Jan. '53-Dec. 71 ...
.23
.39
.21
.31
.33
.35
.11
.26
.12
.07
.28
.29
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.
.21
6.31
3.65
1.02
2.73
.16
.75
1.25
1.71
1.13
. 1.23
2.01
2.37
1.46
.44
.15
.15
.32
.48
.20
.25
.17
.31
.15
.17
2.08
.89
8.27
9.64
3.54
3.71
9.82
11.53
8.12
12.39
.26
1.11
1.54
1.50
2.13
.56
1.04
.71
.24
1.91
1.70
1.31
1
C)
.90
.98
8
2.74
2.72
2.62
1.91
59.00
2,05
2.16
2.23
8.52
13.45
13.71
7.95
8.71
6.65
8.52
9,77
11.10
96.00
19.20
9.64
11.00
8.46
12.53
1.61
7.86
T.71
14.15
1.50
1.59 177.00
1.53
18.92
1.49
18.92
1.49
7.57
3.80
3.04
2.12
2.88
3.37
2.21
2.15
2.28
2.36
96.00
4.52
4.14
3.65
3.96
5.07
4.21
3.91
59.00
4.17
3.01
3.53
105
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered
Monthly series
Cl
1
C
I/C
MCD
Average duration rf run
(ADR)
I/C
for
MCD
span
Cl
2.60
2.17
2.88
1.39
1.63
1.52
10.77
12.47
9.65
5.00
3*98
4.70
9.93
3.61
1
MCD
C
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
851.
862,
853
859.
Ratio, irventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods
Ratio production of bus equip to consumer goods
Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonacjri production or nonsupv workers
Jan. 'S3- Oct. 72 ... 0.92
Jan. '53- Oct. 72 .. 1.86
Jan, '53-Jul. 71 ... 1.07
0.80
1.60
.80
0.42
.85
.72
1.90
1.89
1.10
3
3
2
0.68
.76
.57
Jan. '60-Aug. 71 ...
.34
.30
.14
2.11
3
.74
2.11
1.70
.1.63 24.44
1.51 9.57
1.55 14.67
1.55 32.10
i.sa 13. 56
7.30
4.B4
5.92
22.00
14.73
15.92
13.06
13.06
7.79
1). 37
7.10
14.06
11.50
1.56 10.40
a. 28
1.77
1.61 12.29
S. 36
1.79
1.77
9.95
9.00
22.69
6.47
3.71
3.92
7.74
7.21
8.36
7.21
3.54
4. 22
4.111
4.f>2
F:. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121.
122
123,
125
126.
OECD Ejropsan countries, industrial production
United Kingdom, industrial production
Canada, ndustrial production
W@st Germany industrial production
France, industrial production
.
Jan. '53-May 71 ...
Jan. '53-May 71 ...
Jan. '53-May 71 ...
Jan. '53-June 71 ...
Jan. '53-May 71 ...
.90
1.08
1.00
1.30
1.67
.90
1.04
.97
1.21
1.68
.55
.37
.51
.65
.62
1.64
2.81
1.91
1.87
2.71
2
3
2
2
4
.87
.98
.91
.94
.78
4.58
2.62
127
128.
132
133.
138.
Italy industrial production
Japan, industrial production
United Kingdom, consumer prices (§)
Canada, consumer prices®
West G@rnany, consumer prices (Q)
Jan. '53-May 71 ... 1.60
Jan. '53-June 71 ... 1.71
Jan. '53-April 70 . .
.47
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
.27
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
.32
1.47
1.49
.48
.32
.36
.73
1.20
.30
.21
:
.23
2.01
1.24
1.61
1.52
1.60
3
2
2
2
3
.75
.59
.96
.80
.69
2.86
4.70
6.68
9.95
0.36
136.
137.
138
142.
143.
France, consumer prices @
Italy, corsumer prices (§)
Japan, consumer prie8S(u)
United Kingdom, stock prices©
Canada, stock prices <§) .
.51
Jan. '53-May 70 ...
.32
Jan, '53-Apr. 70 ...
.a
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ... 3.18
Jan. '53-June 70 ... 2.78
.43
.34
.73
2.41
2.19
.40
.30
.41
1.81
1.53
1.07
1.13
1.81
1.33
1.43
2
2
3
2
2
.55
a. 32
.61 It. 82
.68
3.17
.84
2.75
3.03
.94
145.
146.
147.
148.
West Germany, stock prices ©
Franco, slock prices ©
Italy, stock prices©
Japan, stuck orieosfiw
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
2.03
3.30
2.95
2.45
2.27
1.88
1.73
2.24
.90
1.75
1.71
1.09
1
3
3
2
.90
.68
.78
.67
•Series included in the 1966
when MOD,is "6."
.
3.23
3.97
3.63
3.57
"short list" of 26 indicators.
3. as
2.95
3.39
3.54
2.43
2.40
3.12
1.69
1.52
i.?a
1.90
1.94
1.80
;i.70
1.87
1.67
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
y.so
7.30
shown
BRIEF DEFINITION;* OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART I
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business
Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper
57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957
(reprinted from Journal of^Business, October 1957).
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
adjusted series. It is shown for 1-month spans and for spans
of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", no I/C ratio is
shown for the MCD period.
"Cl" is the average month-to-month percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
(i.e., the series after adjustment for measurable seasonal,
trading-day, and holiday variations).
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any scries of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component G,
and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is an unweighted
moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD)
of the seasonally adjusted series.
"U" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
T is the same for the irregular component, obtained by
dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series,
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of tiie appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-month
spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar.,etc,),2-month spans (Jan.-Mar.,
Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span. MCD is the shortest span in months for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which
fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series
with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
106
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1month intervals in a random series, the expected value oi;
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of
Cl is 1.75 for the series on average weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance (series 5). This indicates
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on
the average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a
random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two
columns, 1.47 for land 12.00forC, suggest that the seasonally
adjusted series has been successfully separated into an
essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom)
component. Finally, ADR is 4,13 for the MCD moving
average. This indicates that a 3-month moving average of
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered
Monthly series
Cl
1
C
I/C
MCO
I/C
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
{ADR}
Cl
1
2.60
C
MCD
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
851 .
852.
853.
859.
Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments durable goods
Ratio, production of bus. equip, to consumer goods
Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers
Jan. '53- Oct. 72 ...
Jan. '53- Oct. 72 . .
Jan. '53-Jul. 71 ...
Jan. '60-Aug. 71 ...
0.92
1.S6
1.07
.34
.76
.57
2.17
2.88
1.55
1.63
1.52
10.77
12.47
9.65
5.00
3-98
4.70
3
.74
2.11
1.70
9.93
3.61
1.64
2.81
1.91
1.87
2.71
2
3
2
2
4
.87
.98
.91
.94
.78
4.58
2.62
3.28
2.95
3.39
1.63
1.51
1.55
1.55
1.58
24.44
14.67
22.10
13.56
7.30
4.84
5.92
5.50
7.30
2.01
1.24
1.61
1.52
1.60
3
2
2
2
3
.75
,59
.96
.80
.69
2.86
4.70
6.68
9.95
8.36
1.69
1.52
1.72
1.90
1.94
22.00
14.73
15.92
13.06
13.06
2
2
3
2
2
.55
8.32
.61 18.82
.68
3.17
.84
2.75
.94
3.03
1.56
1.77
1.61
1.79
1.77
10.40
8.36
9.95
6.47
3.71
3.92
1
3
3
2
.90
.68
.78
.67
1.80
1.70
1.87
1.67
7.74
7.21
8.36
7.21
3.54
4.22
4.81
4.62
.80
.85
.72
1.90
1.89
1.10
3
3
2
.30
.14
2.11
.90
.55
.37
.51
.65
.62
.73
0.80
1.60
0.42
0.68
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121
122
123
125
126
OECD European countries, industrial production
United Kingdom, industrial production
Canada industrial production
West Germany industrial production
France industrial production
Jan. '53-May 71 ...
.90
Jan. '53-May 71 ... 1.08
Jan. '53-May 71 ... 1.00
Jan. '53-June 71 ... 1.30
Jan. '53-May 71 ... 1.67
127
128
132
133
135
Italy, industrial production
Japan industrial production
United Kingdom consumer prices @
Canada, consumer prices (§)
West Germany consumer prices @
Jan. '53-May 71 ...
Jan. '53-June 71 ...
Jan. '53-April 70 . .
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 . . .
136,
137
138
142
143
France, consumer prices (§}
Italy, consumer prices (§)
Japan consumer prices (S)
United Kingdom, stock prices (u)
Canada stock prices (§)
Jan. '53-May 70 ...
Jan. '53-Apr. 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
3.18
2.78
2.41
2.19
1.81
1.53
1.07
1.13
1.81
1.33
1.43
145
146
147
148
West Germany stock prices (§)
France stock prices (u)
Italy, stock prices @
.
.
Japan stock prices (u)
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
3.23
3.97
3.63
3.57
2.03
3.30
2.95
2.45
2.27
1.88
1.73
2.24
1.75
1.71
1.09
1.60
1.71
1.04
.97
1.21
1.68
1.47
1.49
1.20
.47
.27
.32
.48
.32
.36
.30
.21
.23
.51
.32
.81
.43
.34
.73
.40
.30
.41
'Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
when MCD is "6."
.90
3.54
2.43
2.40
3.12
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
9.57
8.28
12.29
x
7.79
9.57
7.10
14.86
11.50
9.00
22.89
Not shown
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business
Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper
57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957
(reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957).
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
adjusted series. It is shown for 1-month spans and for spans
of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", no I/C ratio is
shown for the MCD period.
"Cl" is the average month-to-month percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
(i.e., the series after adjustment for measurable seasonal,
trading-day, and holiday variations).
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C,
and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is an unweighted
moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD)
of the seasonally adjusted series.
""C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by
dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-month
spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar.,etc.),2-month spans (Jan.-Mar.,
Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span. MCD is the shortest span in months for which the
average percentage change"(witnout "regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which
fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series
with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1month intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of
Cl is 1.75 for the series on average weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance (series 5). This indicates
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on
the average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a
random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two
columns, 1.47 for land 12.00for C, suggest that the seasonally
adjusted series has been successfully separated into an
essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom)
component. Finally, ADR is 4.13 for the MCD moving
average. This indicates that a 3-month moving average of
107
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
cqvered
Quarterly series
CT
1
C
I/C
QCD
I/C
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
QCD
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
200.
205.
210.
216.
217.
220.
222.
2?4.
2?5.
GN Pin current dollars
6 MP in 1958 dollars
Implicit pries deflator .
...
Pcir capita GNP in current dollars
Por capita GNP in 1958 dollars . .
National income, currant dollars
Personal income, ourrent dollars
Disposable personal incomg, current dollars
Disposable personal income constant dollars
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ72.
IQ'53-IIQ'72
IQ'53-IIQ'72.
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72.
I Q '53-1 1 Q '72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'S3-IIQ72.
. .
..
...
. '
226.
227.
230.
231.
232
233.
Par capita disposable psrsonal income current dollars
ICT53-IIQ72
Par capita disposable personal income, constant dollars
KT53-MQ72. .
Total personal consumption expenditures, current dollars . . . 10 '53-1 10 72
Total personal consumption expenditures, constant dollars . . 10 '53-11072
Personal consumption expenditures durable goods
10 '53-1 10 72
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, except
10 '53-1 10 72. .
automobiles
234. Personal consumption expend., automobiles
10 '53-110 72
236. Personal consumption expend nondurable goods
10 '53-11 072
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services
10 '53-110 7 2 . , . .
1.64
1.20
.65
1.39
1.03
1.69
1.56
1.51
1.07
0.32
.34
.11
.32
.34
.36
.22
.26
,30
1.58
1.05
.65
1.31
.87
1.59
1.54
1.48
1.00
0.21
.32
.17
.25
.39
.22
.14
.18
.30
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1.22
.83
1.51
1.05
3.1-4
.28
.29
.34
.37
1.62
1.17
.73
1.47
.98
2.36
.24
.40
.23
.38
.68
1
1
1
1
1
.24
.40
.23
,38
.68
2.13
6.44
1.27
1.78
.83
4.21
.44
.20
1.92
4.02
1.21
1.75
.43
1.05
.37
.12
1
2
1
1
,43
.44
,37
.12
4.51
2.63
2.64
3.18
3.81
2.26
3.70
10.61
3.80
3.30
1.99
.89
1.40
1.28
1.03
,95
1.05
7.70
2.53
1.98
3.33
2.35
2.13
2.62
3.51
1.92
3.36
5.58
2.52
2.46
.60
.38
.66
.49
.31
.49
.31
1.38
1.00
.80
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
.60
.38
.66
.49
.31
.49
.31
.61
.43
.80
2.48
4.05
2.85
2.96
3.35
2.85
3.08
1.71
2.57
4.1*1
a. 40
5.13
5*13
4.05
6.42
4,53
4.81
2.05
5.92
7.00
4.05
2.85
a. 75
1.40
1.37
1.28
1.24
1.33
1.37
1.33
1.24
1.28
1.28
5.92
3.35
3.35
1.31
1.31
1.22
15.40
5,92
3.35
3.35
0.21 8.56
3.67
.32
.17 19.25
7.00
.25
4.53
.39
.22 7.00
.14 15.40
.18 15, ,40
5,92
,30
7,00
5.13
11.00
5.13
2.83
4.01
2.20
7.00
77.00
1.35
1.31
1.43
1.35
1.31
1.45
1.26
1.40
1.35
11.00
1.40
1.4S
1.26
1.26
1.20
11.00
1.26
1.26
1.26
1.31
7.70
3.67
240.
241.
242.
243
244.
247
248.
249.
252
253
S3ross private domestic investment, total
Total nonresidential fixed investment
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures
Fixed investment, producers' durable equipment
£
ixed investment, residential structures
p
ixed investment, nonresidenttal, 1958 dollars
. . . .
Fixed investment in residential structures, 1958 dollars
Gross auto product, 1958 dollars
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services . . . . . . .
...
10 '53-110 72. .
10 '53-1 10 72
10 '53-1 10 72
10 '53-1 10 72
IQ '53-11072
IQ'53-IIQ72
IQ '53-110 72
10 '53-1 10 72
IQ '53-11 072
10 '53-1 10 72
260.
261.
262
264.
Govt. purchases of goods and services total
Total Govt. purchases of goods and services, 1958 dollars , . .
Federal Govt purchases of goods and services
Federal Government purchases of goods and services for
national defense
State and local govt purchases, goods and services
Final sales durable goods
Final sales, 1958 dollars
Final sales nondurable goods
IQ'53-(IQ72
IQ '53-11072
IQ '53-1 10 72
1.94
1.48
•2.17
.53
.61
.89
1.82
1.27
1.90
.29
.48
.47
1
1
1
.29
.48
.47
IQ '53-1 10 72.. .
IQ'53-11072
IQ '53-110 72
10 '53-1 IQ 72. .
IQ'53-IIQ 72
2.23
2.38
2.31
1.02
1.31
.80
.40
1.07
.37
.49
1.95
2.37
1.89
.93
1.24
.41
.17
.56
.39
.39
1
1
1
1
1
.41 ,3.08
.17 25.67
3.00
.56
3. OH
.39
7.00
.39
1.24
1.24
1.31
1.26
1.22
IQ '53-110 72.. .
Compensation of employees
IQ'53-IIQ 72
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons . .
. . .
. . . . IQ'53-IIQ 72
Corp profits and inventory valuation adjustment
IQ'53-IIQ 72
Net interest .
...
IQ'53-IIQ 72
Gross saving private and government
IQ'53-IIQ 72
Personal saving
IQ'53-IIQ 72
Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation
IQ'53-IIQ 72
adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances .
. . . .
IQ'53-IIQ 72 ..
1.71
1.26
1.11
4.28
3.73
4.49
8.43
.26
.62
.42
2.22
.83
2.17
6.28
1.67
1.03
.98
3.18
3.69
3.41
5.05
.16
.61
.42
.70
.23
.64
1.24
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
.16 11.00
.61 2.48
7.70
.42
2.96
.70
.23 25.67
2.66
.64
.45
1.73
9.98
1.93
6.08
.36
7.06
1.87
.86
.19
1
1
.86
.19
IQ'53-IIQ 72... .
IQ'53-IIQ 72 ..
IQ'53-IIQ 72 .. .
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72 .
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72
IQ'53-IIQ 72 .
IQ'53-IIQ 72
8.21
4.97
4.94
3.88
3.70
1.54
2. 80
.82
.89
4.83
9.55
1.64
1.20
4.23
2.83
2.91
2.09
2.11
.33
1.00
.29
.37
.87
5.63
.32
.34
6.24
3.74
3.74
2.99
2.85
1.50
2.51
.73
.77
4.65
6.34
1.58
1.05
.68
.76
.78
.70
.74
.22
.40
.40
.48
.19
.82
.21
.32
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2.85
.68
2.8*1
.76
2.75
.78
2.57
.70
2.S7
.74
.22 15.40
.40
3.67
3.67
.40
3.85
.4$
.19
3. ft*)
2.?6
.02
,21 8.5b
3.b7
.32
IQ '57-1 10 72
IQ '57-110 72
IQ '57-110 72
IQ '59-1 10 72
IIQ'57-IIQ'72 ....
2.76
2.22
1.44
7.93
2.88
1.13
.79
.24
5.54
1.51
2.39
1.80
1.40
4.33
2.00
.47
.44
.17
1.28
.75
1
1
1
2
1
.47
.44
.17
.55
.75
266,
270
273.
274
280
282
284.
286
288
290
292.
294.
2.14
25.67
7.00
8,56
3.67
38. SO
19.25
1-1. (X)
7.00
12.83
15.40
77.00
ll.()0
8.56
77.00
8.56
5.13
38.50
77.00
5,13
4.53
7.00
<i.53
7.00
15.40
15.40
5.92
7.00
5.13
11.00
5.13
a. 85
4.81
2.81
7.00
77.00
2 ^ 96
3.35
2. m
3,00
2.62
4.00
2.75
4.81
3.00
2,5.67
25.67
7.00
11.00
19.25
3.06
3.08
7.00
1.35
1.35
1.33
1.22
1.28
1.26
1.28
11.00
11.00
4.81
6.43
2.48
7.70
2.96
4 . 28
25.67
25.67
6.42
4.20
2. S3
4.3J
1.31
r>.V>
,»'>.bY
25.67
L.2i
l.PP
1.P2
*. />
2.83
4.28
Z.B'J
'>.'>Q
2.66
2.14
8. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
1 1 New capital appropriations, manufacturing
*16 Corporate profits after taxes
18 Corporate profits after taxes 1958 dollars
34. Net cash flow, corporate . . . .
. . .
35 Net cash flow corporate 1958 dollars
57, Final sales
*61 . Business expend., new plant and equipment
63 Unit labor cost, total private economy
6E Labor cost per unit of gross prod nonfin corp
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
110. Total private borrowing
700 GNP in current dollars
.
. .•
*20Et GNP in 1958 dollars
.
.
4.n
l.Ph
4.m
2.75
2.57
2.57
1.??
15.40
15.40
5.S?
3.67
3.67
3.83
3.85
2.26
L.?t>
i.ro
1.35
i.?1*
1.28
1.P4
1. 15
I. U
7. (10
f
).92
*>.4?
4.5(3
11.00
a. 56
7.00
3.67
5.55
7.62
8.71
3.79
4.36
3.21
4.36
6.78
2.48
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
61 ;3. Business expend., new plant and equipment
410 Manufacturers' sales total value
.
4V? Manufacturers' inventories total book value
430a. New car purchases by households
435. Index of consumer sentiment
...
See definitions of measures at end of part 1.
108
3.21
4.36
6.78
1.83
2.18
1.32
,1.45
1.30
•1.29
1.20
2. IB
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Parti. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Cl
1
C
I/C
QCD
I/C
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
QCO
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
0.12
1.21
.80
1.12
0.89
2.20
2.72
1.95
2.74
.41
.41
1
2
1
1
1
ld'BO-IVQ'71 .... ' 5.98
2.66
4.83
.55
U S. official reserve assets®
Merchandise exports adjusted
Merchandise imports adjusted
Investment income, military sates, and other services,
exports .
541. Foreign investment income, military expenditures, and other
services, imports .
. . . .
IQ'60-IVQ'71 ....
10 Wild '72
IQ '60-110 7 2 . . . . .
2.61
5.06
4.62
1.31
3.93
2.78
2.21
2.40
3.31
.59
Id Wild '72
3.50
2.21
IQ Wild 72
2.58
542
543.
544
545.
546
547
Income on US investments abroad
Income on foreign investments in U.S
Receipts from foreign travelers in U S
Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
Military sales to foreigners
U.S. military expenditures abroad ©
10 WHO 72
IQ '60-110 '72
IQ Wild 72
IQ '60-110 72
10 '60-1 10 72
IQ'60-11Q72 ...
548
549.
601
602.
745
746
770
858.
Receipts from transportation and other services
Payments for transportation and other services
Fed receipts natl income and product accts
Fed. expend , natf. income and product accts
Avg hourly compensation private nonfarm economy
Real avg, hourly comp , private nonfarm economy
Output per man-hour total private economy
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
211.
252
253
264.
530
532.
Fixed weighted price index gross private product ..
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services ...
National defense purchases
Liquid liabilities to all foreigners © .
Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign official
agencies ®
534
536
537
540.
29.00
29.00
29,00
7.00
4.81
4.45
3.69
2.72
3.08
2.88
1.15
3.62
2.47
2.94
1.75
3.06
1.27
1.29
1.29
5.22
3.77
6.12
2.94
3.20
3.06
.88
2.04
1.26
8.17
2.04
1
.56
2.72
1.20
6.12
2.72
2
1
1
1
2
2
.43
.48
.59
.82
.63
.43
1.69
4.08
3.50
2.33
1.53
1.88
1.17
1.22
1.53
1.20
1.26
1.22
3.50
6*12
4.90
4.45
2.23
3.77
3.43
4.08
3.50
2.33
2.18
2.82
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2,23
.45
2.13
.51
3.67
.41
4.05
.47
.16 77.00
8.56
,36
.50
3.67
3.35
.54
1.26
1.32
1.28
1.18
1.40
1.38
1.26
5.44
3.77
5.50
7.00
4.36
2.82
3,67
4.05
77.00
15.40
77.00
2
.48
.51
.80
.41
.41
2.45
2.72
3.08
2.88
1.38
1.22
1.29
1.24
1.32
12.25
1
.55
2.47
.84
1
2
1
.59
.68
.84
2.51
.88
1
1.22
2.16
.56
5.26
5.05
3.28
3.93
3.60
2.21
1.57
2.35
1.10
18.56
13.97
3.44
2.33
3.28
4.63
2.64
2.85
9.13
2.18
IQWIIQ72
IQWIIQ72
10 '53-11072
IQ '53-11072
IQ '53-110 72
IQ'53-IIQ72
10 '53-1 1072
10 '53-110 72
3.06
3.51
2.53
2.17
1.24
2.34
2.65
2.12
2.16
2.32
1.93
1.22
1.10
1.23
IQ'53-IIQ72.....
8.02
Id '65-1 10 '72
IQ'60-IIQ72
Id '60-1 Id '72
IQ'53-IIQ72 .
10 '60-1 10 '72 ....
0.91
3.68
3.51
2.23
3.31
.67
.86
.87
0.10
2.67
2.18
.80
.94
.90
.20
.23
.38
.38
.65
.76
.71
1.63
.48
.59
.82
1.53
1.07
.41
.47
.16
.36
.50
.54
0.12
8.56
8.56
3.67
1.26
7.00
3.35
1.28
3.50
3.17
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income
1
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list ' of 26 indicators.
6.23
4.80
1.30
1.60
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators,
by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted
from Journal of Business, October 1957).
"Cl" is the average quarter-to-quarter percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
or, if the series contains no measurable seasonal, in the
unadjusted series.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I* is the same for the irregular component, obtained
by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"QCD" (quarters for cyclical dominance) provides an
estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a quarterly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
QCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-quarter
spans (1st quarter-2d quarter, 2d quarter-3d quarter, etc.),
2-quarter spans (1st quarter-3d quarter, 2d quarter-4th
quarter, etc.), up to 4-quarter spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span, QCD is the shortest span in quarters for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated
by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with
a QCD greater than "3" are shown as "4".
"T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally ad justed
series. It is shown for 1-quarter spa_ns and for spans of
the period of QCD. WhenQCDis "4", no I/C ratio is shown for
the QCD period.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
quarterly changes in the same direction in any series of
observations. When there is no change between 2 quarters, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and
the QCD curve. The QCD curve is an unweighted moving
average (with the number of terms equal to QCD) of the
seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1quarter intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-quarter
intervals in a moving average (QCD) of a random series, the
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of Cl is
1.60 for the series on the ratio of personal saving to disposable
personal income (series 854). This indicates that 1-quarter
109
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART I—Continued
(2 quarters being the QCD span) reverses direction, on the
average, about every 3 quarters. The increase in the ADR
from 1.60 for CI to 3.17 for the QCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, quarter-to-quarter changes in the QCD
moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend
movements of the series, whereas the quarter-to-quarter
changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually d© not.
changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average,
reverse .sign about as often as expected .in a random series.
The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.28 for I
and 3,50 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has
been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is
3.17 for the QCD moving average. This indicates that a
2-quarte:r moving average of the seasonally adjusted series
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Quarterly Series: Average Actual Changes
Unit of
measure
Period
covered
Quarterly series
CI
1
C
1/c
QCD
I/C
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
1
CI
C
QCD
3.21
2.53
2.53
A. WATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Id '53-1 Id 72 .. Ann, rate,
bil dol ..
1 Q '53-11 Q 72 .. ...do
1 Q '53-11 Q 72 .. ...do
ld'53-IIQ72
. do ..
. . do
Id '53-1 Id 72 .
do
Id '53-1 Id 72
245 Change in business inventories, total ,
246
260
271
?75
298
Changci in business inventories, 1958 dollars
Nst exports of goods and services
Chango in business inventories durable goods
Changs) in bus. inventories nondurable goods
Government surplus or deficit total
2.65
2.57
.92
2.41
1.64
3.01
1.85
1.77
.56
1.59
1.44
1.81
1.54
1.55
.67
1.32
.62
2.54
1.20
1.14
.84
1.20
2.30
.71
2 0.54
.51
2
1 .84
.60
2
4
t1)
1 .71
1.64
1.71
2.33
1.60
1.40
2.75
1.31
1.31
1.28
1.37
1.26
1.33
4.05
2.73
3.85
2.53
2.85
S, 75
a. 96
2.41
a. 33
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Id '53-1 Id 72 ..
Cents
.22
.13
.15
.83
1
.83
a. 57
1.33
3. 21
2.57
10 '53-11072 ..
ICT53-IIQ72
Id '53-110 72 ..
Percent ....
. . . do
Ann. rate,
bil. dol
.45
.18
.32
.09
.32
.16
1.00
.58
2
1
.37
.58
2.75 1.24
2. 4S 1.40
6.42
3.85
4.75
2.48
2.65
1.85
1.54
1.20
2
.54
1.64
1.31 3.21 2.53
259.04 169.62 174.84
Mil. dol
253.80 172.57 168.31
do
263.92 183.28 167.97
. do ..
642.75 462.57 311.70
...do
749.49 408.84 491.05
. do .
1,071.73 660.39 613.98
.
... do
118.04 102.80 44.66
do
227.24 176.99 101.60
.. . do . . .
.. . . . d o
193.63 128.88 114.02
159.06 142.41 88.90
.. . . . d o
.. ...do
281.67 220. IB 130.55
387.41 338.00 202.27
.
do
.. Ann. rate,
2.38
1.89
bil. dol
3.07
1.34
1.41
1.94
Id '68-1 Id 72 .. Ann. rate, pet.
748. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, first year
.79
1.22
1.45
749. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, life of contract . 10 '68-110 72 .. . . . d o
.97
1.03
1.09
1.48
.83
1.08
2.30
1.74
1.13
1.60
1.69
1.67
1
2
2
2
1
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
.97
.43
.45
.77
.83
2.04
1.88
2.04
1.75
2.04
1.88
1.48
1.48
1.81
1.48
1.53
1.53
1.22
1.22
1.44
1.36
1.40
1.36
1.20
1.40
1.29
1.09
1.22
1.22
3.50
4. OS
4.08
2.58
.79
.95
1.54
1
1
2
.79 2.33
.95 1.35
.71 1.42
1.26
1.13
1.13
4.28
2.43
a. 12
2.33
1.55
2.00
.50
.53
.97
1
1
1
.50
.53
.97
1.31 5.50
1.31 3.85
1.3C 2.83
3.08
3.35
2.03
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, mfg
22. Ratio 3f profits to income originating in corporate
busiross
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans @
245 Chance in business inventories, total
D, OTHER KEY INDICATORS
250.
515
517.
519.
521
522.
560
561,
564.
565
570.
575
600
Balance on goods and services
Balance on goods services and remittances
Balance on current account
Balance on curr. acct. and long term capital
Net liquidity balance
Official reserve transactions balance
Foreign direct investments in the U S
U.S. direct investments abroad ..
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
U.S purchases of foreign securities
Govt grants and capital transactions net
Ban king and other capital transactions net
Fed. balance, natl income and product accts
IQ'60'IIQ72
Id '60-1 Id 72
Id '60-1 Id 72
IQ'60-IIQ72
Id Wild 72
Id '60-1 Id 72
Id Wild 72
ldWlld72
Id '60-110 72
Id Wild 72
Id '60-110 72
Id WHO 72
Id '53-110 72
..
ft
.02
.61
.56
.65
.56
a. as
a. 45
2.04
2. 67
2.67
a.ia
2.04
2.18
1.96
a. 09
2.58
2.72
2.45
2.72
2.18
2.18
2. IB
2.67
2.00
a. 45
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
207. GNP gap (potential less actual)
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing
857. Vacuncy rate in total rental housing <g)
Ann. rate,
IQ'53-IIQ72 ..
bil. dol
IQ '53-11072 .. Percent
IQ '56-1 Id 72 .. ...do
•
•Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
when QCD is "4."
4.57
1.58
.24
1.87
.67
.15
3.77
1.27
.16
3. OS
3.35
2.03
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
1
Not shown
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This
method is used for series with zero or negative data and for
other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
expressed in percent.
Thus, "CI" is the average quarter-to-quarter change in the
seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without
regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure
as the series itself.
110
•'C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part 1.
B. Current Adjustment Factors
1972
1973
Series
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
1
1 3. New business incorporations
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
121.0
83.4
77.0
85.3
103.8
129.2
142.9
110.3
91.5
89.1
81.5
84.5
97.3
98.9
92.4
97.5
90.9
94.4
110.8
106.9
102.1
107.2
104.1
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales,
mfg.2
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies1 3 .
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies
reporting higher inventories
97.5
-47
108.2
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans4
+336
100.3
99
+105
-81
91.5
86.3
94.7
106.9
+338
-507
-608
-266
-323
+119
87.8
96.5
101.5
112.8
110.0
108.7
105.3
113.9
99.2
99.4
96.1
%
+126
93.6
88.7
100.9
100.2
100.0
100.0
99.5
100.1
99.7
98.9
99.6
508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical
machinery
102.1
94.6
100.9
97.2
94.5
99.9
99.9
99.3
104.1
616 Defense Department obligations total
106.4
97.5
108.1
103.9
89.1
97.2
104.2
85.8
90.0
59.2
80.9
148.1
109.1
92.6
117.4
102.8
87.4
80.3
91.3
84.0
89.2
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding .
621 . Defense Department obligations,
procurement .
625 Military contract awards in U.S.
D34 Profits, manufacturing (FNCB}
5
110.4
-9
97.0
104.1
105.9
+6
81.4
106.2
-11
June
100.0
+637
108.9
91.4
100.3
100.7
98.2
106.8
95.0
84.5
138.3
78.1
68.1
180.9
76.9
179.0
101.8
75.1
+14
NOTE: These series are not published in seasonally adjusted form by the source agency (except series 13 and D34}. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of Economic Analysis or
the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15,TheX-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment
Program.
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
These quantities, ,in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
Method II seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series, factors are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, August, October, and December).
5
l-quarter diffusion index: figures are placed in the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
2
3
Ill
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, ond (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol @ (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures bused on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures ore shown in the basic data table,'; of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Feb.
Jan.
Mar.
Apr.
Moy
5. AVERAGE WEEKLY INITIAL CLAIMS
June
July
Aug.
FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE*
(THOUSANDS)
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
it a
IIIQ
Annual
IV Q
STATE PROGRAMS'
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
2ie
1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949*.*
19SO...
16
134
121
166
235
294
26
225
174
206
303
283
28
192
185
201
333
276
34
205
207
210
379
263
43
220
235
239
377
250
70
206
219
219
359
252
72
171
229
194
340
223
360
163
193
202
385
170
375
191
179
218
320
182
248
181
163
203
386
19U
220
178
172
211
344
200
185
211
172
234
293
197
23
184
160
191
308
2B6
49
210
220
9.23
372
355
269
175
200
20S
34@
192
190
169
216
343
197
19S1...
1953..*
19S3...
19S4...
1955,.*
1936...
174
221
175
303
256
218
181
201
177
318
240
226
166
209
188
320
228
221
199
219
179
313
228
223
199
213
198
313
222
236
209
242
195
314
222
227
236
315
207
294
223
245
254
2o?
229
319
233
224
242
168
238
322
204
236
234
175
251
315
224
214
210
169
298
276
215
223
213
190
280
253
214
230
174
210
180
314
241
222
202
22S
191
313
224
229
344
230
225
312
220
235
219
179
276
281
218
222
21©
1957...
1938...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
242
354
292
281
393
3Q1
225
407
284
271
429
295
219
436
258
303
379
287
239
438
244
294
381
283
244
400
246
316
358
301
246
410
258
322
334
304
267
350
264
335
348
303
235
363
291
363
316
305
305
338
271
351
329
300
302
314
311
373
304
304
320
311
351
385
305
299
355
320
275
381
296
310
229
399
278
285
400
294
243
416
249
311
35B
296
269
350
350
331
303
326
313
312
360
3D2
304
267
370
279
331
348
299
1963...
1964* * .
1965...
1966..*
1967...
1968...
310
284
243
222
196
206
301
270
248
219
231
196
238
277
237
182
256
194
293
265
237
179
259
193
288
262
224
192
236
195
284
257
224
194
231
194
281
260
231
199
231
189
290
244
248
19S
212
199
285
245
218 '
197
217
194
282
249
209
203
220
188
276
262
212
208
209
190
301
251
206
219
204
190
300
277
243
208
228
199
28S
261
22B
18®
243
194
ass
aa&
250
232
197
220
194
234
209
2 10
189
£90
260
328
201
22,5
194
1969...
179
232
293
186
250
286
185
263
296
181
326
284
182
313
290
197
303
293
195
265
276
196
288
329
200
317
303
202
327
291
211
322
283
210
302
272
183
248
292
187
3i4
289
197
290
363
206
317
9,82
194
292
291
1970. ..
1971...
1972...
1973...
9. CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED FOR COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS) FLOOR SPACE1
(MILLION SQUARE FEET Of' FLOOR SPACE)
27B
140
390
187
209
343
?,32
an
218
30S
226
227
211
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
p-
1948...
=,.,.-„-
1950.. •
17.93
29*14
17.52
17*29
22.51
19.66
23.84
25.63
19.16
27-04
30.12
16.54
28.14
25.08
17.67
27.86
31.41
16.22
27.47
22.89
12.56
34.46
23.39
18.95
31.05
23.18
16.90
31.55
20.72
17.82
34.19
18.28
18.09
27.93
79.64
55.98
59,06
80.83
53.37
83.04
77.69
47.73
92.98
62.18
S2.61
93,67
39004
399.89
328 .7S
19S1. ..
1956. ...
42.80
16.6?.
24.17
26.79
32.13
33.99
36*59
19*21
28.67
22.22
35.09
38.65
30.42
19.71
24.35
23.99
32.04
42.51
27.22
21.44
26.66
27.18
31.51
42.21
25.27
19.26
29.92
29.81
31.37
34.17
24.71
23.86
19.44
29.77
34.64
35.68
22.33
21*61
39.18
25,97
37,49
35.31
22.32
24.16
25.90
27.62
35*49
37.06
25.26
21.34
27.37
28,28
40.27
36.81
19.42
24.32
31.05
31.17
34.45
30.90
18.21
26.95
31.30
26.15
37.36
35.91
25.74
34.00
18.45
31.62
35.17
33.31
109.81
55.54
77.19
73.00
99.26
115.15
77,30
64*56
76.02
86,76
97.52
112.06
69.91
67.11
92,45
81,87
113.25
109,18
63*37
8S.27
80.0©
88,94
106.90
100.1?,
320.29
272.40
326.46
330 • 57
CI17.01
436.51
19S7...
1950...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
41.22
31.53
31.93
37.32
36.21
38.70
40.20
29.91
32.16
36.93
36*49
42.75
37.83
29.63
35.U
36.73
37.49
45.90
31.94
26.25
1.92
8.73
5*62
2.72
35.90
28.70
38.55
39.25
35.16
44.64
40.66
25.54
34.19
40.31
36.73
41.16
33,55
30.12
37.64
38.87
36.57
40.56
33.38
34*02
34.14
39.38
39.32
42.69
31.51
30,33
38.38
38,96
38.73
40.96
30.98
33.07
41.44
39.44
33.88
41.08
32.67
30.76
36.03
39,44
41.61
42.20
32.73
29.06
39.44
38.15
41.69
41.89
119.25
91,07
99.20
110.98
110.19
127. 3S
108.50
80,49
114,66
118.29
107. §1
128.52
9B.44
94.47
110.16
117.21
114.62
124,21
96.38
92.89
116.91
117.03
117.16
125,17
422.57
358.92
440.93
463. SI
449. SO
SOB* 25
1963.,.
1964...
1965...*
44.61
50.88
53.00
62.29
49*09
64*51
45.11
49.10
55.12
70-42
57.84
61.39
39.42
48.65
54,77
67.99
56.14
66.61
0*23
9.12
57.74
63.28
58.27
47.09
47.00
46.86
57.52
64.00
54.72
66.96
51.39
49.99
57.72
65.85
62.30
66,35
45.78
53.40
56.68
63.54
56.72
71.65
44.93
49.28
52.00
63*52
61.66
66.15
43.88
51.21
62.97
64.40
60.45
61,59
50.81
53.46
60.55
54.76
58.42
79.63
43.73
52.57
61.74
64.42
63.17
69.70
45.43
57.91
64.13
60.21
64.08
71.47
129.14
148.63
162.99
200.70
163.07
192.51
138,62
145,97
172.98
198.13
17S.29
180,40
134.59
153.89
171.65
191,46
178.83
199.39
130,9?
163.94
186. 42
179,39
185.67
220.00
§42.32
612.43
693.94
769.68
702*86
793.10
94*43
88.86
54.37
69.98
80.95
50*04
63.50
67.11
65.44
65.82
64*00
54.82
85.60
58.19
63.40
80.37
54.47
62.83
73.70
70.45
60.67
71.96
61.04
54.82
63.90
60.16
70.72
79.96
51.71
61.75
64.31
54.00
68.70
86.89
54.69
66.69
227.91
236.92
169. 8S
231.79
176.66
181. OS
214.56
191. 6S
186.21
231.16
160.40
197.14
905*42
765*63
734.29
27.99
1949. * . 18.80
1952.. •
1953*. 0
1954...
1955...,
1966. „•
1967. ,.
1968. •*
1969..*
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
853. RATIO* PRODUCTION OF BUSINESS EQUIPMENT TO PRODUCTION OF CONSUMER GOODS'*
(1967-100)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
» «*
1947. ..
1948...
1949...
1950..*
1951. **
1952...
1952...
195'.. ..
86.3
90.0
87.9
69.7
87.5
39.1
87.8
71.6
87.5
90.8
85.2
70.9
89,3
89.5
84.0
71.0
90.5
89.5
82.3
72.4
91.0
89.2
79.8
73.3
88.9
89.9
77.7
73.5
89,9
9O.5
76,2
75.0
90*2
90*6
74.8
75*0
89.2
38.3
71.2
77.1
88.0
88*6
70.3
78.1
88.7
88.9
71.3
78.3
87.1
90.0
87.0
70*7
72.2
89.7
90*3
?6.2
74.3
78,6
103.5
98.5
95.2
79.9
103.9
98.0
93.1
82.1
104.5
98,5
91.6
85.9
104.1
99.1
90.0
33.9
95.1
88.0
104.7
98.0
89.3
83.9
95.3
90.5
102.6
98.7
87.5
85*6
95.7
94.4
99,4
100.0
87.2
85.5
95.4
97.7
99.2
100.4
86.3
86.1
96.3
98*9
98. B
100*6
84*7
86.1
96.7
101.1
98.3
100.6
84.2
88.4
96*8
101,3
97.6
98.7
84.0
83,4
99.0
101.7
98.7
98.6
82.8
89.6
99.2
30*2
104.0
98.3
93,3
81,7
91.5
88. 1
103.8
98.6
88.9
84. S
9S.4
97.0
99.1
100.3
86*1
8S«9
96*1
101.4
98.2
99.3
83,7
83.3
98*3
97.3
81.4
85.1
84.5
78.5
79.8
97.3
79.7
87.6
83.9
78,3
80.9
97.3
79.0
86.6
83.7
78.1
80.3
96.6
80.1
85.6
82.3
78.0
82.2
95*3
81.9
85.3
82.1
80*5
81.6
94.3
82.2
84.9
80.4
78.2
82.1
92.0
79.7
85.5
81.8
78.8
81.5
89.9
79.9
84.1
80.5
79.0
80.7
100.4
87.1
81.3
85.5
80*9
79.8
98.0
81.9
85.1
84.3
78*0
80.3
96.4
00*3
92,1
80.6
04*6
00.9
78,7
90.3
89.4
eg.o
3®. 6
88.6
70.9
77.8
83.9
89.6
79.0
73.8
91,7
101,3
99.1
88.0
83,2
9§*3
1956* *•
90,1
91.5
92.8
195"'...
19SJJ...
1959. *.
1960* ..
1961*.*
196?....
100.2
89.1
80.7
84,4
81.6
79.3
100.9
86.6
81.2
86.1
80*6
79.9
100.2
85,5
82.0
86.1
80.5
80.3
1963...
1964..*
19£5...
1966...
1967. ..
1968...
80.3
83.7
86.7
97.6
101,5
98.0
80.6
83.8
87.5
97.1
103.0
97.4
79.6
85.6
87.9
98.6
102.1
97.5
79,3
85,3
88.9
98.6
101.5
97.2
78.6
85.6
89.6
99.9
100.8
96.7
78.5
86.3
90.2
100.3
99.5
96.3
79.4
85.9
91.7
101.8
99.7
97.0
30.3
85.7
92,2
102.7
100.1
97.0
80.6
87*6
92.2
104.0
100-2
96*9
81.7
87.9
93.2
101.3
97.3
97.2
82.2
87,7
94.7
100.6
96.6
96.5
82.3
87.3
96.0
101.7
96.7
96.3
80.2
34*4
87,4
97.8
102.2
97.6
78. B
B5.7
39.6
99.6
100.6
96.7
8(3*1
86*4
9g.O
102.8
100.0
97.0
82.1
87,6
94.6
101.2
97. S
96.7
00.3
86.0
90.9
100.4
100.1
97.0
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
96.6
95.2
84.2
95.7
94.5
85.3
95.9
94.8
84.1
98.0
93.7
83.3
96.4
92.7
82.4
97.4
92.0
82.3
97.8
91.4
83-5
96.9
91.4
84.1
98,2
91.1
84.1
98.0
88.9
34.2
96.6
88.9
83.0
97.0
87.0
83.1
96.1
94.8
84.5
9?,3
92.8
83.7
97*6
91.3
8:5.9
97.2
88.3
83.4
97.0
91.0
03.6
'Thla
On to
3
;- 1947-1953 hovi
112
99.4
84.5
82.7
84.5
79.5
BO. 2
i shown on o 1967 =3.00 base.
s§.e
82.7
78*9
81.4
ai.4
96.7
82. S
B4.3
03.4
79.3
80,7
(MAY
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index-Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Monthly
Year
Jon.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
48.
May
June
Quarterly
July
Sept.
Aug.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
MAN-HOURS IN NONAGRI CULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS 1
( A N N U A L R A T E » B I L L I O N S OF MAN-HOURS)
II Q
III Q
IV Q
Annual
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
92.18
93.78
92.64
89.56
92.05
93.30
92.40
89.13
91.99
93.76
91.60
90.88
91.24
92.67
91.10
91.42
91.79
93.52
90.75
92.73
92.07
94.19
90.07
93.86
91.56
94.44
89.70
94.82
91.82
94.35
89.79
96.76
92.62
94.31
89.89
96.65
93.04
93.93
88.23
97.20
93.24
94.00
88.86
97.87
93.82
93.71
89.31
97.67
92.07
93.61
92.21
89.86
91.70
93.46
90.64
92.67
92.00
94,37
89.79
96,08
93.37
93,88
88.80
97.56
92.28
93.83
90.36
94.05
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
99.12
100.93
104.27
100.84
101.70
107.23
99.31
101.31
104.68
101.29
102.27
107.51
99.71
100.91
105.05
100.85
103.44
107.02
100*26
100.45
104.93
100.52
103.57
107.84
100.10
100.99
104.53
99.92
104.77
107.52
100.13
100.10
104.54
99.93
104.91
107.82
100.18
99.61
104.40
99.76
105.20
106.58
99.82
101.12
103.80
99.67
105.43
107.85
99.52
102.94
102.81
99.64
106.09
107.90
99.35
103.16
103.63
100.15
106.30
108.48
99.98
103.40
102.55
101.30
106*81
108.69
100.40
104.43
102.05
101.56
107.27
109.01
99.38
101.05
104.67
100.99
102.47
107.25
100.16
100.51
104.67
100.12
104.42
107.73
99.84
101.22
103.67
99,69
105.57
107.44
99.91
103.66
102.74
101.00
106.79
108.73
99.82
101.61
103.94
100.45
104.81
107.79
1957...
1958..*
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
108.11
105.30
106.68
110.36
108.13
110*04
108.88
103.54
106.86
110.52
108.25
111.55
108.70
103.13
107.76
110.17
108.17
112.25
108.11
102.40
108.75
110.70
108.04
112.76
108.14
102.46
109,31
110,41
108.72
112.89
107.94
102.58
109.56
110.27
109.23
113.03
108.04
102.83
109.28
110.25
109.69
113.05
108.12
103.43
108.34
110.15
109.98
113.18
107.48
104.46
108.06
109.57
109.54
113.68
106.46
104.46
107.94
109.40
110.35
113.06
106.0&
105.52
108.40
108.79
111.21
113.50
105.88
105.80
110.06
107.21
111.06
113.38
108.56
103.99
107.10
110.35
108.18
111.28
108.06
102.48
109.21
110.46
108.66
112.89
107,88
103.57
108.56
109.99
109.74
113.30
106.14
105.26
108.80
108.47
110.87
113.31
107.66
103.83
108.42
109.82
109.36
112.70
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
113.55
115.02
120*92
126.55
131.27
131.52
113.73
116.70
121.75
127.62
130.28
133.23
113.93
117.14
122.14
128.28
130.43
133.35
114.63
117.30
122.11
128.22
129.94
133.40
114.84
117.54
122.91
128.57
130.43
134.05
115.17
117.81
122.84
129.54
130.71
134.51
115.28
118.13
123.22
129.50
130.76
135.10
115.35
118.43
123.91
129.98
131-30
135.41
115.78
118.45
123.97
129.94
131.62
135.41
116.16
118.76
124.63
130.30
131.38
135.84
116.09
119.97
125.47
130.71
132.58
135.92
116.26
121.01
126.26
130.78
132*46
136.28
113.74
116.29
121.60
127.48
130.66
132.70
114.88
117.55
122.62
128.78
130.36
133.99
115,47
118.34
123.70
129.81
131.23
135.31
116.17
119.91
125.45
130.60
132.14
136.01
115.06
118.02
123.34
129.17
131.10
134.50
1969.. .
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
137.51
139.26
137.23
137.55
139.48
136.40
138.38
139.48
137.03
138.60
139.14
137.22
139.35
138.31
137.78
139.44
138.04
137.84
139.57
138.24
137.58
139.97
137.87
137.53
140.15
137.01
137.58
140.17
136.50
138.18
140. 16
136.28
139*02
140.45
137.03
139.38
137.81
139.41
136.89
139.13
138.50
137.61
139.90
137.71
137.56
140*26
136.60
138.86
139.28
138.05
137.73
48-B. PERCENT CHANGES IN MAN-HOURS IN NONAGR I CULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS OVER 1-MONTH SPANS 2
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
AVERAGE FOR P E R I O D
...
3.5
-1.1
1.2
27.5
11.0
-0.5
1.3
-1,4
5*6
-4.7
-20.0
7.0
2.6
0.9
8.9
8.6
7.7
-3.6
6.2
-2.4
...
oil
-0.1
-8.6
8.0
0.6
2.5
-6.5
13.9
2*7
0*5
-0.8
13.0
5,3
-2.5
-1.6
4*4
-4.4
9.8
1948...
1949...
1950...
-0.5
-12.9
3.4
-6.0
-3.1
-5.6
6.1
-9.9
26.3
-13.1
-6.4
7,4
11.6
-4.5
18.6
8.9
-8.6
15.6
3.2
-4.8
13.0
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
19.3
6,5
-1.8
-13.3
1.7
-0.4
2.3
4.6
4.8
5.5
6.9
3.2
4.9
-4.6
4.3
-5.1
14.6
-5.3
6.8
-5.3
-1.4
-1.9
6.6
-4.5
0.4
-10.1
0.1
0.6
-4.2
-3.5
-2.0
7.9
-1.6
-6.7
-10.9
10.0
-11.8
5.2
12.6
-5.7
8.8
2.2
2.4
1.8
-2.9
-1.9
-2.4
12.7
-6.4
3.7
6,0
-2.5
3.0
4.5
-2.1
1.5
9.6
14.8
-3.5
1.6
3.4
3.4
-13.0
2,7
15.3
7.8
0.6
2.4
6.6
5.9
2.3
5.3
3.6
7.7
-0.8
6.0
3.2
4.6
1.0
4.5
4.2
5.7
1*9
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
-9.5
-6.4
10.4
3.3
10.8
-10.5
8,9
-18.3
2.0
1.8
1.3
17,8
-2.0
-4.6
10.6
-3.7
-0.9
7.8
-6.3
-8.2
0.3
0.7
-2.2
1.4
1.1
3.0
0.9
7.2
-6.9
12.6
o.o
-4.2
12.9
-2.2
3.2
-0.9
-9.8
-2.7
-2.0
-1.6
7.6
5.9
-1.4
5.6
-3.1
7.8
1.4
-1.5
5.8
1.5
-0.2
5.2
0.2
-1.1
3.2
1.4
-6.1
-4.7
-1.8
9.2
-6.5
9.8
-16.1
-1.6
0.5
3.7
4.1
-2.5
1.2
2.3
-5.7
5.4
8.0
-8.1
5.8
-1.0
-2.7
0.3
4.3
-2,4
3,7
2.3
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1.8
-12.1
1.9
19.0
2.1
4.6
1.7
2.5
2.8
3.3
3.1
0.2
3.2
-0.7
12.9
1.8
10*9
2.8
4.6
-8.2
-8.6
16.8
1.4
1.1
-4.4
0.5
4.6
6.0
2.6
4.2
0.5
5.4
5.1
2.8
2.9
0.0
-2.2
3.9
11.5
0.7
0.6
-1.1
3.2
1.9
3.8
3.9
6.6
-0.9
3.2
4*4
2.3
2.4
4.0
0.9
3.6
2.2
2.2
3-8
1.2
2.8
2.7
1.7
9.0
7.6
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.6
4,3
4.4
3.6
1.4
3,0
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973.. .
11.4
-9.7
1.8
3.1
4.0
0.3
1.9
-7.0
5.8
10.0
7.5
1.9
-2.9
1.7
8.4
6.8
6.7
-6.9
5.0
2.7
0.8
-2.3
0.5
1*1
1.8
-2.2
3.5
-3,2
-0,4
1.6
-7.2
0.4
0.2
-4.4
5.4
-0.1
-1.9
7.5
2.5
6.8
3.2
6.4
-2.6
0.2
3.1
-4.0
2.4
2.1
-2.9
-0.7
2.8
0.9
0.2
5.4
3.1
3.1
-2.3
1.8
3.8
5*1
...
48-C.
o.o
5.7
3.3
1.3
-10.8
PERCENT CHANGES IN MAN-HOURS IN N O N A G R I C U L T U R A L ESTABLISHMENTS OVER 3-MONTH SPANS 3
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
1947...
1948...
949...
950..*
0.3
-6.6
1.2
-ols
-8.7
7.2
-4.0
-4.7
-6.5
8.6
952...
953...
954...
955...
956...
5.4
5.0
-4.8
3.9
2.6
2.0
2.4
-4,6
7.6
-1.9
2.6
-1.3
7.6
957...
958...
959...
960...
961...
962...
0.7
-9.2
5.2
8.1
-1.1
-10.0
7.6
O.4
1.2
963...
964...
965...
966...
967...
968...
969...
970...
971...
1972...
1973...
-1,1
0.9
-7.0
17.2
0.3
1.8
-6.5
13.8
1.4
7.9
-6.0
15.7
-1.3
-0.6
-5.3
10. 1
0.0
-3.2
-1.9
-3.6
5.8
3-0
-3.3
-2.0
-3.0
6.4
0.0
-10.6
8.0
1.2
-4.1
9.5
-0.4
-2.1
6.9
4,4
10.3
4.9
0,8
2.1
6* 1
7.0
-1.3
2.0
2.0
3.1
3.8
6.6
-1.1
2.7
3.9
8.2
4.0
5.4
-4.0
5.8
4.9
-1.9
0.3
4.0
4.2
6.3
-2.7
0.0
4.0
5.0
3.2
-0,3
0.0
5.8
6.0
0.5
-0.8
12.4
0.5
-2.8
-1.0
2.5
11.8
-6.5
-1.2
4 6
1.7
2.0
3.8
-3.5
-0.9
2.8
1.0
4.0
2.9
3,9
3.0
0.5
2.5
4.4
2.3
2.3
4.0
0-9
3.5
5.3
-3.3
4.1
4.B
3.1
-4.1
2.4
5.3
'This series conta Ins revisions beginning with 1967.
This series conta ins revisions beginning with 1947.
2
0.1
3.6
-4.2
18.5
-2.1
-6.4
10.4
-2.9
-1.5
-4.1
4.7
-4.7
-2.5
-2.6
4.3
-2.9
...
3-0
0.7
4.9
-3.1
-0.1
10.2
-5.4
-1.6
0.2
3.5
8.1
5.7
15.6
13-8
5.7
6.4
1.5
-2*3
3.6
2.3
3.3
-1.5
-4.1
-0.2
-6.0
7.0
-0.5
2.9
2.0
-2.0
-0.2
5.5
1.4
5.9
-4*6
7.4
5.7
2.7
1.1
3.0
0.6
0.5
3.6
-1.3
2*5
2.5
-10.3
4*2
5.3
7.5
-5.4
6.5
-4.8
8.3
0*2
5*2
7.6
8.8
9.3
-9*9
6.9
1.0
2.3
0.0
1.1
-1.1
-1.1
1.7
0.4
5.3
-1.5
6.1
-0-5
4.0
2.9
2.3
2.9
3.7
4.1
2.6
5.2
1.8
3.1
3.3
4.5
2.7
4*1
2.1
2.2
3.7
1.2
2.8
2.7
3.1
2.2
4.7
2.5
1.9
2.2
2.6
5.3
5.1
2.3
4.0
1.5
1.7
8*9
7.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
-3.9
7.5
6.3
3.0
0.4
5.0
2.2
4.5
4.6
6.3
-2.1
3.5
3.6
2.7
3.3
3.7
1.3
3.7
2*3
2*5
3*9
2*7
2.5
3.0
0.1
7.2
6.3
2.6
2.3
3.0
2.1
4.2
4.5
3.8
1.0
3,3
2.8
-2.6
1.1
1.6
1.8
-1.3
-0.7
1.8
2.1
-3.0
-0.8
2.7
1.7
-4.9
1.8
5.8
0.5
-4*5
4.4
6.0
0.9
0.1
5.3
3.1
-2.6
2.2
4.6
2.3
4.8
-1.6
0.1
4.6
5.1
3.7
-3.3
2.5
3.9
1-9
-3-1
0.1
3.4
-0.4
-0.7
4.8
3.8
2.5
-2.2
1.9
3.9
(MAY 1973)
113
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This oppendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures ore shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures arc shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1Q
II Q
47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION 1
(1967=100)
IIIQ
Annual
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1945..*
19^6*. •
1947...
1948,..
1949...
1950...
46.5
3IJ.4
33.8
40.8
40.2
3?. 9
46*4
30.8
39.1
40*9
39.9
40.0
46.1
34*0
39.3
40.4
39.1
41.4
45.2
33.4
39.1
40.5
38.3
42.7
44.0
32.1
39.2
41.2
33.4
43.7
43.0
34.1
39.2
41.7
36.2
45.0
42.0
35.3
38.9
41.7
33*2
46.5
37.6
36.6
39.2
41*6
38.6
47,9
34.3
37.3
39.5
41.2
38.9
47.6
32.9
38.0
39.3
41.3
37.5
47.9
34.1
38.2
40*4
41.0
38.5
47.8
34.3
38.4
40.6
40.7
39.2
48.6
46.3
32.4
39.1
40.7
39.7
40.4
44.1
33.2
39.2
41.1
38.5
43.8
38.0
36*4
39.2
41.5
38.6
47.3
33, S
38.3
40.3
41.1
38.4
46. 1
40*6
3S.O
39*4
41.0
36.8
44.9
1931...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1953...
1956...
43.8
U9.3
54.6
SI. 4
S4.9
49.4
49.8
55.4
51.2
56.9
60.5
49.4
49,3
55.6
50.9
57.6
61*0
49.2
48.8
55.9
51.2
58.5
60.5
49.1
46.4
55.6
51.4
58.6
59.9
48.3
47.6
56.0
51.5
59.0
56.0
47.9
50.7
56.0
51.4
59.0
60,5
48*1
52.5
54.9
51.5
59.3
61.8
48.1
53.0
54.4
52.1
60.3
62.4
48.5
54.1
53.1
52.9
60.5
61.9
48.7
54.4
51.8
53.7
60.7
62.8
49.1
49,6
55. 0
SI. 4
55.8
60.7
49.2
48.8
55.7
§1.2
58. Z
60. §
48.1
50.3
5S.6
§1.5
59.1
60.1
48.4
53.8
35. 1
32.9
60.5
63.4
48,7
50.6
54. E)
ei.o
49.1
49.6
54.9
51.5
55.6
60.6
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1963...
6E.5
^7.4
62.5
«»8,8
03.0
70.2
63.1
56.2
63.7
68.2
62.9
71.3
63.0
55.5
64.7
67.5
63.2
71.7
62.2
54.6
66.0
67.0
64.6
71.8
62.0
55.1
67.0
67.0
65.6
7i.8
62.2
56.6
67.1
66.1
66.5
71.6
62.5
57.4
65.5
65.9
67.2
72.3
62.5
58.5
63.3
65.8
67.8
72.4
62.0
59.0
63.2
65.1
67.8
72.9
61*1
59.7
62.8
65.0
69.1
72.9
59.6
61.5
63.1
64.1
70.1
73.2
58.4
61.6
67.0
62.9
70.7
73.2
62.9
56.4
63.6
68.2
63.0
71.1
62.1
55.4
66.?
66.7
65.6
71.7
62.3
58.3
64.0
65.6
67.6
72. S
39.7
60.9
64,0
70,0
73.1
61. §
57.9
64. 3
66.2
66.7
72. a
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966..*
1967...
1968...
73.6
78.8
3S.7
93.8
99.5
102.8
74.3
79.3
86.1
94.7
98.5
103.8
74.9
79.5
87.1
96.0
98.3
103.9
75.5
30.6
87.3
96.4
98.8
104.0
76.4
81.2
87.9
97.4
98.6
105.5
76.8
81.5
88.8
97.9
98.9
106.0
76.4
81.9
89.4
98*6
99.1
105.9
76.6
82.5
90,0
98.7
100.6
106.2
77.3
82.8
90*3
99.5
100.0
106.5
77.9
81.7
91.2
100.2
100.2
106.5
78.2
84.0
91.6
99.6
101.7
107.7
78.2
85.1
92.7
99.7
102*9
107.5
74.3
79.2
86.3
94*8
98.8
103.5
76.2
81.1
88.0
97.2
93.3
105.2
76.8
82.4
89.9
98.9
99.9
106.2
78.1
63*6
91.8
99.8
101*6
107.2
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
108. 4
107.8
105. S
109.7
108.2
106.0
110*3
108.1
106.0
110.2
107.7
106.5
110.2
107.7
107.4
110.8
107.9
107.4
111.5
107.6
106.7
111.4
107.5
105.6
111.9
106.3
107.1
111.7
103.7
106.6
110.3
102.8
107.4
109*9
104.9
108.1
109.5
108.0
105.8
110.4
107.8
107.1
111.6
107-1
1©6.5
110.6
D47
;;;
DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTlON—24 INDUSTRIES 2
(PERCENT RISING OVER 1-MONTH SPANS)
64.:?
103. e
107.4
si.y
S8.!i
61.1
76. S
81.7
89.?,
97.9
100.0
10S.7
110.7
106*6
106 « 8
AVERAGE POR PERIOD
1947...
1948...
1949. ..
1950...
S6!2
20.8
75.0
75.0
52.1
18.7
77.1
68.7
50.0
33.3
77.1
56.2
58.3
16.7
87.5
45.8
56.2
20.8
81.2
50.0
58*3
52.1
95.8
52.1
47.9
50.0
97.9
58.3
54.2
64.6
87.5
75.0
22.9
75.0
43.7
77.1
54.2
56.2
68*7
85.4
25.0
47.9
60*4
75.0
27.1
70.8
62.5
...
52.8
24.3
76.4
50.7
57.6
29.9
83.2
61.8
41.7
63.2
?6»4
79.2
33.4
50.3
63.9
...
46.9
43,9
76.2
1951...
1953...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
S2.1
70.8
54.2
33.3
89.6
62.5
52.1
77.1
56.3
66.7
81.2
41.7
64.6
52.1
83.3
58.3
91,7
47.9
56.2
45.8
77.1
43.7
83.3
85*4
33.3
60.4
56.2
83.3
83.3
18.7
39.6
66.7
31.2
64*6
83.3
29.2
29.2
47.9
83*3
60*4
43.7
60.4
35.4
91.7
39.6
43.7
52.1
68.7
56.2
79.2
16.7
62*5
68.7
54,2
45,8
75.0
25.0
81.2
91.7
62.5
64.6
93.7
20.8
95.8
66.7
47.9
75.0
56.2
16.7
83.3
66.7
68*7
56.3
66.7
65.3
52.8
87.5
50.7
43.0
57.6
54.8
63.9
83.3
44.4
40.3
72.9
46.5
SS.5
§4.8
61.1
61*8
75.0
20.8
86.8
75. G
59.7
50.3
60.0
46.9
64,7
73.8
54.0
1957...
1953...
1939...
I960...
1961...
1962...
47.9
18.7
05.4
66.7
70.8
14.6
83.3
8.3
89.6
50.0
S4.2
75.0
50.0
31.2
75.0
47.9
66.7
72.9
22.9
27.1
91.7
41.7
77,1
64.6
33.3
68.7
75.0
35.4
66.7
56.2
60.4
93.7
54.2
22.9
89.6
39.6
50.0
87.5
64.6
35.4
75.0
58.3
62,5
81.2
20,8
31.2
79.2
58.3
25,0
83,3
60.4
22.9
56.2
79.2
8.3
70.8
43.7
50.0
95*3
25*0
0.0
89.6
45.8
25.0
77.1
77.1
20.8
58.3
95.8
16.7
56*2
64.6
60*4
19*4
83.3
54.9
63.9
54.2
30.9
63.2
73.6
33.3
77.8
53.9
45.8
84.0
48.6
29.8
70.1
65.3
9.7
72.9
61.0
30.6
76.4
S5.6
30.7
59.9
66,8
37.2
72.0
57,1
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
64.6
91.7
77.1
6B.7
47.9
54. 2
70.8
68,7
62.5
72.9
12.5
87.5
68*7
45.8
75.0
87.5
33.3
54.2
72.9
89.6
52.1
54.2
64.6
45.8
70.8
75.0
66.7
81.2
29.2
83.3
56.2
54.2
79.2
54.2
77.1
58.3
58*3
77.1
66.7
66*7
45*8
45*8
70.8
70.8
70.8
62.5
79.2
62.5
64*6
70.8
66,7
64,6
50.0
60.4
62.5
70.8
85.4
58*3
56.2
58.3
60.4
70.8
79.2
37.5
75.0
72.9
35.4
79.2
83.3
47.9
66.7
29.2
63.0
68.7
71.5
76.4
31.2
65.3
66.6
72.9
66.0
63.2
§7.0
62.5
64.6
72.9
63.1
64«6
§8.3
56.2
73.6
02.6
47.9
66.©
53.5
S3. a
63, D
72.0
72.1
63.0
S3.1
S9.4
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
70.8
12.5
S4.2
66.7
62.5
50.0
75.0
31.2
41.7
29.2
58.3
79.2
60.4
31.2
58.3
68.7
37.5
56.2
58.3
58.3
52.1
41.7
41.7
45.8
47.9
33.3
75.0
62*5
33.3
58.3
47.9
33.3
60.4
39.6
50.0
54.2
70.8
35.4
48.6
52.6
42.3
64.6
49.3
44.4
37.6
§0.©
38.9
57.6
RS.7
40.3
!»7 . 1
DU7
DIFFUSION INDEX FOR INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION— 24 INDUSTRIES 3
(PERCENT R I S I N G OVER 6-MONTH SPANS)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOO
...
1943...
1949...
19SO...
75.0
12.5
97.9
79,2
12.5
100.0
68.7
20.8
95.8
62.5
75.0
25.0
100.0
1951...
195?,...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
62.5
68.7
81.2
25.0
95.3
79.2
47.9
62.5
66.7
43.7
100.0
62.5
37.5
66.7
62.5
54.2
100*0
45*8
31.2
50.0
75.0
66.7
95,3
39.6
35.4
79.2
54.2
70.8
95.8
50.0
41,7
93.7
45.8
62.5
87.5
60*4
37.5
91.7
20.6
83.3
100.0
50.0
37.5
100.0
13.7
79.2
87,5
58.3
39.6
100.0
16.7
87.5
87.5
79.2
58.3
95.8
8.3
91.7
89.6
70.8
75.0
91.7
18.7
100.0
79.2
83.3
66.7
83.3
25*0
100.0
75.0
79.2
49.3
66.0
70.1
41.0
98.6
62.5
36.1
74.3
58.3
66..7
93«0
50. Q
38.2
97.3
18*7
83.3
91.7
62.5
66.7
90,3
17.3
97*2
8li3
77,8
47.6
81,9
41*1
72.0
91*1
63,2
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1963...
58.3
8*3
100.0
79.2
47.9
79.2
56.2
16.7
95.8
67.5
79.2
77.1
54.2
33.3
91.7
50,0
91.7
58.3
56.2
50.0
83,3
25.0
91.7
83.3
37.5
83.3
79.2
35.4
100.0
70.8
29.2
91.7
62.5
20.8
91.7
75.0
22.9
95.8
45.8
20*8
100.0
54.2
8.3
100.0
35,4
12.5
100.0
68.7
12.5
100.0
62.5
8.3
95.8
75.0
4.2
95.8
70.8
16.7
87.5
S3. 3
2.1
100.0
83.3
25.0
95.8
87.5
4.2
91.7
77.1
45.6
91.7
75.0
56.2
19.4
93.8
72.2
72.9
71.5
41.0
7S*0
75.0
27.1
94.5
76.4
14.6
98.6
47.9
13.9
98.6
66.0
3»S
93.8
77.1
29.2
91.7
81.9
28.8
72.2
74,0
35.6
89.4
74.0
1963**.
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1966.**
95.8
91.7
79.2
91.7
41.7
91.7
95.8
93.7
91.7
91.7
37.5
93.7
100.0
95*6
81.2
91.7
29.2
95.8
85.4
87.5
87.5
75.0
43.7
100.0
95.8
91.7
87.5
77.1
68.7
79.2
91.7
87.5
83.3
66.7
79,2
79.2
91.7
91.7
91.7
66.7
70.8
83.3
83.3
83.3
95,8
66.7
83,3
62.5
66.7
95.8
87.5
62.5
75.0
66.7
33.3
87.5
95.8
50.0
83.3
75.0
87.5
91.7
87.5
29.2
87.5
68.7
79.2
100.0
95.8
29.2
89.6
83.3
97.2
93.7
84.0
91.7
36.1
93.7
91.0
88.9
86.1
72.9
63.9
86.1
8Q.6
9Q.3
91.7
65.3
76.4
7©.8
83.3
93.1
93.0
36.1
86.8
73.7
80,0
91,5
88.7
66. S
6S.8
81.6
1969...
1970...
1971..=
1972..,,
1973.. .,
70.8
33.3
70.8
70.8
33.3
70.8
79.2
29.2
72.9
70.8
54.2
62.5
75.0
33.3
64*6
56.3
50.0
75.0
66.7
33.3
62.5
62.5
33.3
66,7
45.8
35.4
62.5
29.2
37.5
70.8
33.3
41.7
87.5
20.8
43.7
87.5
73.6
31.9
71.5
68.0
45.8
67.4
56.3
3U.O
63.9
2?, 6
41.0
§6.9
38.2
71.2
l
45.8
83.3
41.7
100.0
45.8
66.7
54*2
95.8
64.6
56.2
54.2
95.8
83,3
41,7
54.2
95.8
87.5
22.9
64.6
95.8
89.6
14.6
83.3
87.5
95.8
8.3
85.4
62.5
83.3
29*2
91.7
66.7
Dnto for 194S-1983 have not previously been shown on a 1967=100 base.
Thi!i series contains revisions beginning with 1947.
a
114
74.3
IS. 3
97.9
51.4
75.6
40.3
98.6
78. S
4Q.3
37.7
95.8
89.6
17.4
86*8
72,2
31. 7
30.0
91.1
ei«9
(MAY 1973)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data ore seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted
data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
44.1
9.7
-1.5
-14.7
-24.3
16.5
-0.9
13.8
-8.9
-55.0
43*7
3.5
-4.6
7.7
7.2
12.7
11.8
-4.3
8.5
-39.4
25.0
53.7
6.5
7.3
6.5
o.o
-2,8
13,3
42.8
-10.9
9.7
-7.3
9*1
-35.6
7.8
-13.5
37.1
-2.5
-8.4
24.1
22.0
-2.4
-9.4
-6.3
4.8
2.1
-17.9
-18*1
9.0
2.4
8.5
-9,5
113,2
0,0
-2.3
0.0
65.9
5.1
52.0
-21.2
2.4
6.3
29.1
0*0
12.0
-10.4
14.9
22.2
12.3
10.4
28.0
-25.2
20.1
4*1
-9.2
5.1
6.9
-25.7
19.7
4.0
18.9
6.8
9.4
7.6
-4.4
26.3
-1.2
-2.4
-10.8
1.6
1.8
12.8
-3.4
-7.4
49.0
-4.1
0.8
4*9
21.0
5.2
15.6
-20.4
18.2
10.1
7.3
0.5
15*8
-3.8
4,1
13,5
5.9
-3.8
11.6
19.8
0.0
20.2
0.0
3.9
38.0
1.8
-15.0
17.8
-3.3
5.9
18.3
-25.1
-3.6
13.4
12.4
0.0
25.6
-33,6
.1,8
11.3
1.7
-9.2
10.8
-1.9
-12.0
0.0
8.6
-16.1
15.2
-7.3
-1.8
25.6
0.0
-25.8
42.8
5.9
-15.4
18,8
5.1
-21.7
2*0
105.4
-20.3
10*8
0.0
1.5
-18.4
21.7
5.3
2.0
6.4
10.6
16.2
-7.8
22.7
-0.5
18.2
-20.2
-5.8
8.2
7.6
20*0
34.7
-12.5
18.4
1.7
7.6
13.1
-5.2
12.8
3.8
2.9
4.8
13.0
6*3
3.7
5.8
8.4
8.9
2.5
-1.1
8.4
1.2
19.8
3.5
4.5
4.1
10.2
-6.9
3.4
39.5
5.4
-7.0
19.5
14.4
16.9
15.4
1.2
15.1
-2.2
6.9
9.8
15*0
-5.4
4*1
7.0
8.6
13.2
-2.4
18.7
-14.8
12.6
8.8
2.4
0*0
10.6
2,8
5.1
6.3
1.2
8.1
8.2
2.5
8.6
7.0
6*6
5*1
1.9
11.1
1.0
12.3
4.1
9.0
7.8
3.6
4,7
-1.1
-4.4
5.8
18.7
12.5
0-0
0.0
10-6
4.3
6.7
2.3
0.0
2.1
7.8
-3.3
-7.5
5.4
-1.1
-1.1
-11.7
13.4
5.5
-12.6
18.4
10.9
-2.1
-25.7
-3.3
15.5
-14.0
-9.9
7.0
10.7
-4.3
27.5
8.1
7.3
10.9
-5.8
4.3
12.0
9.1
1.9
-0.7
5.5
8.4
4.1
-5.7
-0.3
9.9
-6.8
-2.7
3.9
11.2
2.5
-3.7
3.4
10.4
-49.5
13.2
6.1
-13.8
23.7
-21.1
-19.2
-5.9
3.0
-8.8
44,9
-27.6
-37.9
3.1
22.8
-11.7
32.0
-24.1
106.5
0.0
15.6
-6.1
42.2
-24.6
51.4
-8.8
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956.**
5.1
15.8
4.5
-8.9
30.4
6.1
7.6
7.6
6.8
2*4
16.4
-7.6
7.6
4.9
11.5
-6.8
32.0
-2.0
0.0
-11.4
4.4
-6,8
15,8
-4.8
-11.5
6.7
7.3
20.4
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
-5.6
-18.7
19.0
37.5
1*9
-8.2
12.1
-22.4
25.6
-10.0
-1.9
20*5
-1.9
-14.0
20.6
-11.6
5.9
6.9
-14.2
-17.8
27,0
-8.5
30.1
1.7
1963..*
1964...
1965*..
1966...
1967...
1968...
6.8
9.6
8.8
15.2
-2.4
-1.2
12.0
7.9
5.7
12.1
-11.4
12.3
10.1
3.1
14.9
17.8
-2.4
1.2
10.0
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
10.5
-20.7
7.1
6.9
7.3
15.4
4.5
5.8
15.3
12.7
6.8
-1.1
0.0
13.9
7.2
-33.4
9.8
5,0
-10.3
16.5
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
-66.8
25.5
-7.5
227.4
6.3
-13.7
-21.6
51.1
1945..*
1946...
1947..,
1948...
1949...
1950...
0.0
48.2
PERCENT CHANGES IN INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION OVER 3-MONTH SPANS 1
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
-3.5
9.7
-2.0
-14.8
24.4
-19,1
18.0
1.0
3.0
-14.2
42.5
-24.3
1.2
-1.0
13.5
-8.9
39.6
-25.5
24.8
-2.0
12.4
-6.0
40.6
-46.7
69.0
0.^
-59,5
43.2
3.1
-62.3
34.3
9.6
-32*4
18.7
12.8
0.0
12.3
11.6
-5.9
8.7
10.4
2.1
44*3
7.5
25.2
-7.1
12.6
-1.0
-0.8
3.
8.
28.2
7.7
11.3
9.4
6.0
-11.5
22.0
0.7
6.7
9.3
7.6
-4.6
26.1
-1.3
5.0
0.0
7.5
-3.8
21.2
0.0
0.8
-6.3
7.5
-2.3
22,6
-0.7
-2.4
-10.8
1.5
1.6
12.5
-3.9
-8.6
-13.1
2.9
4.8
10.1
-18.3
-10.2
16.5
-7,9
38.4
-1.6
53.7
5.1
29.6
5.
15.
10.4
12.6
1.6
3.5
0.0
0,8
4.9
13.3
4.7
9.1
34.0
12.2
10*6
9.6
18.2
9.8
6.6
1957...
1958...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
8.0
-20.9
15.1
36.5
-7.3
7.0
1.3
-18.4
21.7
3.0
1.9
5*8
-1.9
-18.1
24.4
-10.1
10.6
9.4
-6.8
-7.6
22.4
-6.9
18.3
2.8
-5.0
8.2
15.7
-8.0
22.6
-0.6
1.9
22.1
-3.0
-6.4
17.1
2.8
27*1
-20.3
-7.0
14.1
3.4
18,1
-21,3
-5,9
8.1
7.5
17.0
-15.5
-5.4
11.8
3.4
22.1
-1.3
-9.9
14.3
4.5
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
6.1
5.7
9.6
6*8
10.7
9.5
11.8
9.9
10.5
10.4
4.9
6.6
1.1
6.6
2.6
6.5
8.1
-1.0
14.2
-4.3
15.0
-5.5
11.6
-2.8
11.9
0.4
8.2
2.5
9.4
1.2
5.4
8*4
6.7
4.5
7.6
10.8
6.8
1.8
1*8
4.8
4*4
13,0
10.0
9.1
4.3
12.0
9.0
3.8
16.0
10.7
5,4
12.2
5.4
8.2
0.8
4.0
-6.5
6.9
'This series ;ontalns revisions beginning with 1945.
(2) Indicates value which rounds to 0.0.
29.2
6.0
0.9
-1.8
25.7
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
-10.7
12.9
3.1
-2.9
-13.2
31.2
1969...
1970...
1971,..
1972...
1973...
Annual
-73,5
54.3
-2.6
-45.5
9.7
3.0
-8.6
3.0
47-C.
IV Q
II Q
47-B. PERCENT CHANGES IN INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION OVER 1-MONTH SPANS1
(COMPOUND ANNUAL RATE, PERCENT)
1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949. .*
1950..*
III Q
Id
-8.0
7.5
(Z)
-12.8
24.0
-23.0
14.7
-0.7
9.6
-9.7
40.9
-56.2
48*8
4*2
-0.9
Q.8
27.4
-12.8
13.2
11*6
-7.5
10.1
5.2
17.2
5.7
0.3
-2.9
24.4
23.3
4.7
0*6
7.7
6*2
7.0
-6.6
23*1
-0.2
-3.4
-10.1
4.0
1*4
15.1
-7.6
-6.6
36.2
-5.0
2*4
5.8
15.8
6.9
19.2
-20.1
17.9
8.4
5.6
1.1
12.9
-3.5
3.8
13.1
3.4
18.8
26.3
-12.8
18.2
1.7
20*1
44.1
-11.8
6.5
3*9
2.5
-19.1
20.4
9.8
1.7
7.4
-3.3
7.6
11.7
-7.1
19.3
1.7
-2.2
20*7
-19.0
-6.1
11.3
4.8
-20.2
20.3
23.0
-11.5
13.0
3.4
-5.8
7.4
9.0
-3.7
11.4
4.3
8.6
7.5
4.7
11.6
4.7
21.1
8.8
7.3
6.7
4.5
3.7
4.4
0.8
12*1
-2.8
10.8
7.3
13.6
-4.2
5.7
9.1
9.0
8.9
9.8
1.4
7.5
3.9
4.0
8.4
6.3
5.8
2.3
6.0
13*4
10.1
0.6
9.1
5*6
7.0
8,4
9,2
7.6
3.0
5.3
4.0
0.7
-3.9
-7*0
-13.3
8.4
-1*1
9,9
0.4
13.3
7.0
12.3
3.8
11.1
7.3
8.4
7.0
12.7
9.6
3.9
8.1
-2*4
10.0
6.0
10.6
-4.3
3.6
10.4
(MAY 1973}
115
G. Expansion Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
HOW TO RIIAD CYCLICAL (EXPANSION) COMPARISON CHARTS
These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of the most recent business contraction
(beginning with the cyclical peak in November 1969) and the recovery and subsequent expansion
(beginning with :he business cycle trough in November 1970). To set the current cyclical movements into
historical perspective, cyclical paths over generally similar historical periods are shown. The graphic
presentations of the data for the selected periods are superimposed according to a special chart design. The
explanatory statements below provide a key to this chart design.
Arabic number indicates latest calendar
month of data plotted
("7" = July); Roman
number indicates latest
quarter for which data
are plotted ("III" =
third quarter).
This scaBc shows dcviutions (percent differences) from reference
evels.
1, The objective: of the chart is to compare the pattern
of the current recovery and expansion with
corresponding historical patterns to facilitate critical
assessment of the amplitude, duration, and vigor of the
indicators' current movements.
Series number, series title
This scale shows actual
series units (seo current data table in chart
for the unit of measure) and applies only
to the current business
cycle (heavy solid
line).
2. The vertical line represents reference trough dates.
The current rec overy and expansion, beginning with the
business cycle trough in November 1970, and the
corresponding historical periods, beginning with the
troughs in October 1949, August 1954, April 1958, and
February 1961, are presented graphically so that their
trough dates aw placed along this vertical line.
3, The horizontal line represents the level of the data at
the business cycle peak (November 1969) that preceded
the most recent trough. It also represents data levels at
other business cycle peaks (November 1948, July 1953,
July 1957, and May I960) that preceded the troughs
used for this analysis. The peak levels, which also are
called recovery levels—i.e., the levels at which recoveries
from the preceding contraction are achieved-are aligned
along the horizontal line for each business cycle
depicted.
This table shows actual
data for the most
recent
peak
and
trough, and for the
selected time periods
thereafter.
4. For most series, deviations (percent differences)
from the previous peak level are computed and plotted
for each cycle (consisting of the contraction and
portions of the subsequent recovery and expansion).
For series containing negative values (such as percent
changes) and series measured in percent units (such as
interest rates) actual data are plotted in original series
units rather than deviations from preceding peak levels.
Months from ref.
troughs
Dates relative
to current
trough Nov. '70
This comparison table shows percent deviations from the preceding reference
peak levels (or the actual data) for specified number of months or quarters
after reference trough dates. The median is determined as described in
statement 7.
5. The influence of excessive irregular fluctuations in
series with MCD of 3 or more is modified by using the
average for the 3 months centered on the peak as the
reference peak level.
: :
*?:
.;:;::
6. For series that move counter to movements in
general business activity (e.g., the unemployment rate),
an inverted scale is used; i.e., declines in the data are
shown as upward movements in the plotted lines, and
increases in data as downward movements in plotted
lines.
7. In each chart, four curves and two sets of points are
shown. One curve describes the current cycle (heavy
solid line:•••»). The median pattern of the four
post-World War II cycles (those with troughs in 1949,
1954, 1958, and 1961) is shown as another curve (heavy
broken lint;: ••«•—). The curve representing the median
pattern passes through the median points of the four
business cycle paths. (Median is defined here as the
average of the two middle points.) The two most recent
Designations; "Coincident,"
"Leading,"
"Lagging," and "Unclassified'" indicate the
,NBER timing classification for the series.
This scale measures
time in months before
and after reference
trough dates. The
negative side indicates
contractions; the positive side indicates
recoveries and expansions.
This time scale shows
calendar months or
quarters corresponding
to the eurrunt contraction, .recovery, and
expansion.
Symbols if and O mark levels of the 1949 and 1954 cycles, respectively, at
selected time periods. (See statement 7.)
:;:";:
©= Current business cycle (reference) peak
>'••:
©
=
Current business cycle (reference) trough
cycles (those with troughs in 1958 and 1961) are also
shown as plotted lines (solid line: ——, and knotted
line:
, respectively). The two sets of points display
the relative levels for the two earlier cycles, with troughs
in 1949 (*) and 1954 (O), at selected points in time,
including the same point as the latest month plotted.
8. The business cycle peaks and troughs used in these
charts are those designated by the National Bureau of
Economic Research and are shown below. The Roman
numerals indicate the peak and (trough quarters for
quarterly data.
Peak
Nov. '48 (IVQ'48)
July '53 (IIQ 'S3)
July '57 (IIIQ'S7)
May '60 (llQ'60)
NOV. '69 (IVQ'69)
Trough
' Get, '49
AUR. '84
Apr. '88
Fob . '61
Nov. '70
(IVQ'49)
(mQ'34)
(IIQ'58)
(IQ'61)
(IVQ'70)
NOTE: These charts will be discontinued when the current expansion reaches 30 months. Comparisons over longer periods are less meaningful because of She relatively short duration of
some earlier expansions.
116
G. Expansion Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued
741.
47.
Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers,
private nonfarm
Industrial production
Current data
(Index: 1967=100)
29 months after
ref. trough
Current data
(Index: 1967=100}
108.7
110.0
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
111.2
112.8
113.2
29 months after
ref. trough
May '72
June'72
July*72
Aug.'72
Sep.'72
Oct.'72
Nov.'72
Dec.'72
Jan.'73
Feb.'73
Mar.'73
Apr.'73
113-9
115.1
116.1
117.5
118.5
119.2
119.9
121.1
121.8
123.0
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
109.0
108.8
109.3
109.9
109.7
109.9
110.1
110.2
110.4
110.9
110.8
111.5
111.3
110.7
110.4
110.2
Percent
-i +14
858.
43.
Jan.'72
Feb.'72
Mar.'72
Apr.'72
Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
Output per man-hour,
total private nonfarm
•116
• 114
Unclassified
+10
•112
+8
+6
+4
Current data
(Percent)
+2
•108
•106
•104
•102
Jan.'72
Feb.'72
Mar.-72
Apr.'72
29 months after
ref. trough
May '72
June'72
July'72
Aug.'72
Sep.'72
Oct.'72
ov.'72
Dec.'72
Jan.'73
Feb.'73
Mar.'73
Apr.'73
1949
1954
1953
1961
1970
Median
105.8
106.6
107.3
108.5
109.9
111.3
113.1
114.1
115.3
Months from ref
troughs
-12
11/69
5/70
11/70
5/71
11/71
5/72
11/72
5/73
Dates relative
to current
•
trough Nov. '70
11/69
5/70
11/70
5/71
+12
+18
+24
+30
11/71
5/72
11/72
5/73
117
G. Expansion Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued
i i i i r T i i i i I i i i i i [ i i i i i 11 11 I i I ! i i n I i i i i i T
rn i i i i i i i i i M i i i i i i i i i i i i i M i i i i i i i i i i
1140 Treasury bill rate
781 Co Percent change in consumer price index
(6-mo. span}*
+7
+6
+5
+4
+3
+2
+1
V
'54
0
July172
Aug.'72
Sep.'72
Oct.'72
Nov.'72
Deo.>72
Jan.'73
Feb.'73
Mar.'73
Apr.'73
30 months after
ref. trough
3.2
2.5
3.4
3.8
3-7
3.9
4.1
5.0
5.9
6.6
1958
1961
1970
Msrltaa
115.
Treasury bond yields
85c. Percent change in money supply
(6-mo. span}*
+12
+8
+4
0
Current data
(Percent)
Jul.'72
Aug.'72
Sep.'72
Oct.'72
Nov.'72
Doc.'72
Jan.'73
Feb.'73
Mar.'73
Apr.'73
May '73
+5.12
+1.62
+1.82
+3.82
L
+S*94
+2.80
+9-74
-•-7.95
-^7.21
J-7.08
-'•7.30
'8.49
•^6.22
+6.52
+5.20
+5.25
'+5.94
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
JJLUJlJI 1 1 II 1 | | \ | j I I I i i 1 I I i I I l I l I I I I i I I I I I I
-12
-6
11/69
5/70
0
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
11/70
5/71
11/71
5/72
11/72
5/73 ^
#Peroent
©hanges are plotted at the terminal month of the span.
1
May estimate (•••} includes weeks ended May 2, 9 and 16.
"May estimate (•••) includes weeks ended May 4, 11 and 18.
118
E
30 months after
ref. trough
30 months after
ref. trough
1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median
Gorront data
(Poreont)
-4
1
Months from ref.
troughs
•
Dates relative
to current
trough Nov. '70
3
Bop.'72
Oct.'72
Nov.'72
0oo.'73
Jan.'73
Feb.'73
Mar.'73
Apr.'73
May '73
2.64
3.22
3.91
3.99
3
6.22
3.60
"11/69
-
6
5/70
I . Ml.
3-51
6.14
6.20
6.11
I
0
Jj
+6
+12
+18
+24
+30
11/70
5/71
11/71
5/72
11/72
5/73
ill
-12
No '69
Nov.
Nov.'?/
No
May estimate (•••) includes weeks ended May3, 10, 17, and
Actual
dot«
ALPHABETICAL INDEX
Series Finding Guide
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
Tables
Charts
Series
Historical
data descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
A
Accession rate, manufacturing
2
Anticipations and intentions, businessmen's
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . . D61
Employees, manufacturing and trade
D446
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
0450
Orders, new, manufacturing
0440
Prices, selling, manufacturing
0462
Prices selling manufacturing and trade
0460
Prices, selling, retail trade
D466
0484
Prices, selling, wholesale trade
0442
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade
0444
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade
Automobiles
Cars, new, purchased by households
430
Expenditures, personal consumption
234
Product, gross, constant dollars
249
See Employrnent and unern jloyment.
46
46
47
46
47
47
47
47
46
46
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
85
3/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
3/73
45
84
S e e N I A - P e rsonal consum Dtion expend tures.
See NIA - G r oss national pr oduct.
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Compensation of employees-Continued
Earnings, avg. hrly., prod, wkrs., priv. nonfarm
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm
Earnings, real spendable average weekly
Wage and benefit decisions first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . .
Composite indexes
Capital investment commitments
Coincident indicators, five
Coincident indicators, five, deflated
Coincident indicators five rate of change
Employment, marginal adjustments
Financial flows sensitive
Inventory investment and purchasing
'.
Lagging indicators six
Leading indicators, twelve
Leading indicators, twelve, reverse trend adj
Profitability
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Historical Series
data
descriptions
lissuedate) (issue date)
740
58,59
92
2/72
741
859
748
749
53
58,59
58
59
59
23
92
92
93
93
76
2/72
2/72
2/72
2/72
8/72
814
820
825
820
813
817
815
830
811
810
816
38
37
37
65
38
38
38
37
38
37
38
83
83
83
5/72
1/72
1/72
11/68
12/71
11/68
853
See Investme nt, fixed.
435
45
84
3/73
11/68
81
81
82
82
81
81
81
6/71
7/72
6/71
4/73
4/73
7/72
4/73
11/72
39
33
33
34
36,42
36
34,40
34
33
625
547
621
616
648
647
264
546
7/72
89
55
See Balance f payments- Ir iports.
89
4/73
55
4/73
89
55
8/72
89
55
8/72
89
55
See NIA - Go vernment pure lases.
See Balance t)f payments - E xports.
83
83
83
83
83
83
83
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
6/72
6/72
10/72
6/72
6/72
7/68
11/68
5/72
5/72
B
Balance of payments - See also NIA - Foreign trade.
Balances
Banking and other capital transactions, net
Current account
Current account and long-term capital
-.
Goods and services
Goods, services and remittances
Government grants and capital transactions, net —
Liabilities liquid
Liabilities liquid and norriit]uid
Liquidity net
.
....
Merchandise trade
Reserve position U S official
Reserve transactions official
Special drawing rights, allocated to U S
Exports
Goods and services
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Investment, foreign direct, in the U.S
Investment income, military sales and service
Merchandise, adjusted
Military sales to foreigners
Orders, new, manufacturers' durable goods
Orders, new, nonelectrical machinery
Securities, U.S., purchases by foreigners
Total, excluding military aid
Transportation and services, receipts
Travelers, foreign, receipts from
Imports
Goods and services
Income on foreign investment in the U.S
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services
Investments abroad U S direct
Merchandise adjusted excluding military
Military expenditures abroad U S
Securities foreign U S purchases
Total general
.
53
49
49
49,51
49
53
50
50
49
48
50
49
252
542
560
540
536
546
250
506
508
564
502
548
544
87
51
52
88
88
53
51
87
87
51
88
52
See Balance of payments •
48
86
86
48
88
53
86
48
88
52
88
52
Travelers abroad, U.S., payments by
Bonds - See Interest rates.
Building - See Investment, fixed.
Business failures, current liabilities
Business starts
Formation business net
Incorporations new
Buying policy production materials
10/70
11/72
11/72
11/72
11/72
10/70
5/69
8/70
8/70
5/69
5/69
11/72
10/71
5/69*
8/70
5/69
11/72
11/72
12/72
11/72
11/72
13/72
alances.
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
3/73
3/73
8/68#
12/72
10/71
12/72
11/72
5/69"
11/72
11/72
87
88
541
561
537
547
565
512
549
545
51
53
51
52
53
48
52
52
87
88
87
88
88
86
88
88
11/72
12/72
11/72
11/72
12/72
10/71
12/72
11/72
14
34
81
7/72
77
25,39
77
25
See Invento es.
6/71
7/72
*12
13
26
5/69*
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
C
Canada - See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Gap (potential GNP less actual)
Output to capacity, manufacturing
Potential GNP, constant dollars
Capital consumption allowances
Capital investment - See Investment, fixed.
Cars - See Automobiles.
Cashflow net corporate constant dollars
Cashflow net corporate current dollars
Compensation of employees - See also NIA - National
and personal income.
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
orivate nonfarm
416
44
207
850
206
296
See NIA - G ross national p oduct.
62
96
1/73
See NIA - G ross national p oduct.
See NIA -Sj vng.
35
34
31
31
80
80
3/73
8/72
8/72
11/68
*113
7/64
11/72
10/72
10/72
11/72
D
Defense
Expenditures abroad, U.S. military
Obligations incurred, total
Orders, new, defense products
Orders new defense products industries
Purchases of goods and services
Sales, military to foreigners
9/68#
Deficit or surplus, government - See NIA - Budget.
Diffusion indexes - See also Anticipations and intentions.
Capital appropriations new manufacturing
Claims, avg. weekly initial, unemploy. insurance . . . .
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Industrial materials prices
Industrial production
Orders, new durable goods industries
Prices, 500 common stocks
Prices, wholesale, manufactured goods
Profits, manufacturing
Sales retail stores
.. .
Workweek, avg., production workers, mfg
Disposable personal income - See NIA - National
and personal income.
Drawing rights
Durable goods
Automobiles - See Automobiles.
Expenditures, personal consumption - See NIA Personal consumption expenditures.
Inventories business change in
....
Orders export excluding motor vehicles
Orders new
Orders, new, components
Orders unfilled
• ••
Orders unfilled change in
Orders, unfitted, to shipments
Sales final
• ••
296
See NIA -Sa /ing.
011
05
041
023
047
06
019
058
034
054
01
63
63
64
63
64
63
63
64
63
64
63
535
See Balance af payments - B ilances.
97
98
98,100
97,100
98,101
97,99
97
98,102
97
98,102
97,99
1/73
11/71
6/69*
4/73
6/72
4/69*
11/71
11/71
11/71
5/69*
1/71
7/72
1/71
4/73
6/69
6/72*
271
506
*6
06
96
25
852
270
See NIA - G r oss private dom estic investrnent.
See Balance af payments- E xports.
(9/68
77
11/72
25,39
SeeDiffusio indexes.
9/68
78
27
9/72
9/68
9/72
79
29
9/68
96
62
9/72
See NIA - Fi lal sales.
2
841
*5
20
60
20,39
E
1/72
1/72
745
58,59
92
9/72
10/72
746
58.59
93
9/72
10/72
'Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
84
112
110
*72
66
11/72
51
52
253
543
....
88
87
87
87
87
88
87
87
87
86
87
87
87
575
517
519
250
515
570
530
532
521
500
534
522
535
Construction - See Investment, fixed.
Consumer goods, ratio of business equipment to
Consumer installment debt - See Credit.
Consumer prices - See Price indexes - Consumer.
Consumer sentiment
Costs - See Labor cost and Price indexes.
Credit
Bank loans to businesses change in
Borrowing, total private
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Consumer installment debt
Consumer installment debt, change in
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Mortgage debt change in
Earnings - See Compensation of employees.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate manufacturing
Civilian labor force, total
Claims, avg. weekly initial, unemploy. insurance . . . .
Claims, avg. weekly initial, unemploy. insurance,
diffusion index
Employed persons in civilian labor force
Employees, mfg. and trade, diffusion index
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
05
842
0446
74
94
74
4/73
4/73
10/71
See Oiffusio n ndexes.
60
| 4/73
94
See Anticipa t onsand in en ons.
8/68
4/72
6/69
J4/72
NIA means National Income and Product Accounts.
119
Series Finding Guide—Continued
Series titles
(See corrplete titles in "Titles and Sources of
iteries," following this index)
Charts
Employment and unemployment-Continued
*41
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
041
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, components .
46
Holp-wantfd advsrtisintj in newspapers
Help-wanttid advertising to persons unemployed
860
Job vacancies in manufacturing
50
Layoff rato, manufacturing
3
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
48
Man-hours in nonagricultural estab., rate of change . . 48
813
Marginal oinploymsnt adjustments
21
Overtime 1 ours, production workers, mfg
42
Persons on jaged in nonatjrieultural activities
Unemployed persons in civilian labor force
Unemployment rate, both sexes, 16-19 years
Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over
Unemployment rate, 1 5 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate males 20 years and over
Unemployment rate, married mates, spouse present .
Unemployment rate, Negro and other races
Unemployment rate, total
Unemployment rate white
Workweek, production workers, components
Workweek, production workers, manufacturing
Equipment, business • See Investment, fixed.
Exports - See Balance of pmts. and NIA • Foreign trade.
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
843
846
845
*44
45
844
40
848
*43
847
01
*1
Tables
21,41
75
See Diffusior indexes.
21
74
62
96
21
74
20
74
21
75
65
See Composi e indexes.
20
74
21
75
60
60
60
22,42
22
60
22
60
22,41
60
94
94
94
75
75
94
75
94
75
94
See Oiffusior^ indexes.
20,39
74
Series
Historical
descriptions
data
{issue date) (issue date)
4/73
8/68
12/70
ii/72
11/71
11/71
10/72
8/68#
8/68#
8/68#
4/73
4/73
4/72*
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/73
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
6/69
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/73
4/73
8/68
F
817
Foreign series- See International comparisons.
Foreign trade - See Balance of payments and NIA.
Franco - See International comparisons.
Free reserves
93
See Composi e indexes.
35
82
2/73
11/72
G
Government • SEO Balance of payments, Defense,
and NIA.
Gross national product - See Capacity utilization and
NIA.
H
Hours - See Employment and unemployment.
Housing
Residential structures - See NIA • Gross private
domesti; investment.
Units authorized by local building permits
Units stinted, private, total
Vacancy rate, rental housing .
*29
28
857
26,39
26
62
78
78
96
11/72
6/71
1/73
4/69
6/72
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
International comparisons-Continued
Industrial production
Canada
.
France
Italy .
.
.
Japan
OECD, European countries . .
United Kingdom
West Germany
Stock prices
Canada
France . . . .
Italy ..
. .
Japan
United Kingdom . .
.
United States
West Germany
,
.
Charts
.
.
....
.
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
. . .
Tete
Historifial Stories;
descriptions
data
(issuo dote (isstin date}
10/74
123
126
127
128
121
122
125
67
67
67
67
67
67
67
103
103
104
104
104
103
104
3/73
3/73
3/73
9/71
3/73
3/73
3/73
143
148
147
148
142
19
145
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
104
104
104
104
104
104
104
6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72
2/73
6/72
29
62
79
96
11/7;
9/68
11/7.
;»/69
Inventories
Business inventories, change in - See NIA • Gross
private domestic investment.
65
Finished goods, book value, manufacturers'
851
Inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
815
Investment and purchasing
412
Manufacturers', book value
414
Manufacturers' condition of
*71
Manufacturing and trade, book value
*31
Manufacturing and trade, change in . , ,
0450
Manufacturing and trade diffusion index
Materials and supplies, change in mfrs.' book value . . 20
37
Materials purchased, higher inventories
26
Production materials, buying policy
286
Valuation, adjustment of, corporate profits
Investment, fixed - See also NIA - Gross private
domestic investment.
97
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
11
Capital appropriations new manufBCturing
Capital appropriations, new, mfg., diffusion index . . D11
814
Capital investment commitments
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial . . 9
8
Construction contracts, total value
Construction expend., bus., maeh. and equip, sales . . 69
8S3
Equipment, business, ratio to consumer goods
560
Foreign direct investments in the U S
Orders, new, capital goods industries, nondefense . . . 24
*10
Plant and equipment contracts and orders
Plant and equipment, new business expenditures . . . *61
[KM
Plant and equip., new bus. expend., diff. index
561
U S direct investments abroad
See Composi e indexes.
44
44
29, 42
84
84
79
78
1C3/7H
;U5/72
10/72
.1 t)/72
,1.0/72
4/'/3
11/68
Vv;j
n/v;!
I l/V.t
U/68
a/69
20,40
R/69
See An tie! pa ions and inton inns.
13/68
79
U/7,'
28
70
;'/>*
28
79
2/73
Seo MIA - Na tional and f orb mtfl income
27
26
78
77
1/73
,i/73
See Diffusion indexes.
See Composi e indoxes.
26
25
27
62
77
77
78
96
7/71
«/?«'
10/71
9/68#
11/68
See Balance t f payments • xports,
26 .
77
77
7/72
7/72
25,39
27,42,43 78,84
3/7,1
See Anticiuo ions and in ten ions,
See Balance ( f payments • m ports,
9/68
9/68
11/68
Investments, financial * See Balance of payments,
Composite indexes, Interest rates, International
comparisons - Stock prices, and Price indexes - Stock.
Italy - See International comparisons.
10/72
J
1
Imports - See 'Balance of payments and NIA Foreign tradti.
Income - See f Iso Compensation of employees
and NIA • Nuional and personal income.
Househo ds, compared to year ago
Househo ds, mean probability of change
Income c>n foreign investments in U.S
Income tm U.S. investments abroad
Receipts for transportation and other
services, U.S, balance of payments
Receipts from foreign travelers in U.S
Industrial materials prices • See Price indexes - Materials.
Industrial production - See also International
comparisons,
U.S., components
U.S., index. , , .
U.S., rato of change
Interest net
Interest rates
Business loans, short-term bank rate
Corpora' e bond yield
Mortgage yield, residential
Municipal bond yield
Treasury bill discount rate
Treasury bond yield
International comparisons
Consumer arices
Canada
France
Italy . . . .
Japan
United Kingdom
West Germany
Japan - See International comparisons.
L
420
425
543
542
*52
548
544
047
*47
47
288
*67
116
118
117
114
115
133
136
137
138
132
135
series on the 19B6 NBER "short list" of indicators.
120
45
45
84
84
3/73
3/73
11/68
11/68
See Balance cf payments - 1 sports.
See Balance c f payments - E xports.
23,41
76
8/72
7/68
Labor cost per unit of gross product
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Labor cost per unit of output, total private economy
Labor cost price per unit of
Labor force - See Employment end unemployment.
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Loans - See Credit.
See Balance c f payments - E xports.
See Balance cf payments - E xports.
See Diffusior indexes.
23,41,67 76,103
65
10/71
11/70
32
32,42
32
ao
ao
ao
8/72
5/72
1/73
7/68
U/68
UJ/72
See Price Ind 3xes.
3
See Frnployr lent and unern jloyrnmit,
85
102
33
33
81
81
12/71
12/71
10/72
1 (5/72
103
33
ai
12/71
10/72
602
601
600
298
34
54
54
See NIA Sa
09
89
89
8/72
8/7S
8/72
7/68#
7/68#
7/68#
ing,
270
274
273
15
IS
IS
71
71
72
10/72
10/72
10/69
10/69
M
11/68
11/68
Machinery - See Investment, fixed.
Merchandise trade - See Balance of payments.
Military <• See Defense.
Money supply, change in
Money supply and time deposits
Money supply, time deposits, and deposits
at nonbank thrift institutions
See NIA - Na t onal and pers jnal income
82
82
82
82
82
82
a/73
35
36
35
35
35
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
2/73
7/64*
66
66
66
66
66
66
103
103
103
103
103
103
6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72
6/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
36,42
68
*62
63
*17
7/64
7/64
7/64
7/64
N
National income and product accounts
Budget
Expenditures, Federal
Receipts Federal
„
I
, ,. . '
Final sales- See also Sales.
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Total, constant dollars
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
NIA means National Income and Product Accounts.
1/73
Series Finding Guide—Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
National income and product accounts-Continued
Foreign trade - See also Balance of payments
Exports, goods and services
Exports, goods and services, net
Exports, goods and services, net, percent of GNP . . .
Imports, goods and services
Government purchases (goods and services)
Federal Government
Federal Government, percent of GNP
Federal, State and local governments
Federal, State and local govts,, constant dollars
National defense
State and local governments
State and local governments, percent of GNP
Gross national product
Auto product, gross, constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars, rate of change
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, rate of change
GNP, gap {potential less actual)
GNP, potential, constant dollars
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Per capita GNP, current dollars
Price deflator, implicit
Price index, fixed weighted, gross private product . . .
Gross private domestic investment
Equipment, producers' durable
1 nventories, business, change in, constant dollars . . .
Inventories, business, change in, current dollars
Inventories, business, change in, percent of GNP
Inventories, business, durable goods, change in
Inventories, business, nondurable goods, change in . .
Investment, fixed, nonresidential, constant dollars . .
Investment, fixed, nonresidential, current dollars . . .
Investment, fixed, nonresidential, percent of GNP , .
Investment, gross private domestic, total
Structures nonresidential
Structures, residential, constant dollars
Structures, residential, current dollars
Structures, residential, percent of GNP
National and personal income
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, pet. of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dol.
Disposable personal income, per capita, current dol. .
Interest, n e t
. . .
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation adj
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation adj.,
percent of national income
Proprietors' income
Proprietors' income, percent of national income
Rental income of persons
Rental income of persons, pet, of national income . .
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods
Durable goods, except autos .
Nondurable goods
Personal consumption expend., total, constant dol . .
Personal consumption expend., total, current dol . . .
Personal consumption expend., total, pet. of GNP . .
Services •
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Historica
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date (issue date)
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
0
252
250
250A
253
13
13
19
13
71
71
73
71
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
5/69
5/69
10/69
5/69
262
262A
260
261
264
266
266A
14
19
14
18
14,55
14
19
71
73
71
72
71,89
71
73
10/72
10/72
10/72
1/73
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/69
10/69
10/69
18
9,18,23,
41,61,
65
9,23,41
65
61
61
9
9
9
56
72
69,76
95
69
69,76
69
95
95
69
69
69
90
1/73
1/73
1/73
1/73
1/73
10/67
10/69
10/69
10/69
1/73
1/73
1/73
1/73
10/69
10/69
10/69
243
246
245
245A
271
275
247
241
241 A
240
242
248
244
244A
12
18
12,28
19
15
15
18
12
19
12
12
18
12
19
70
72
70,78
73
71
71
72
70
73
70
70
72
70
73
9/72
1/73
9/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
1/73
9/72
10/72
9/72
9/72
1/73
9/72
10/72
10/69
280
280A
225
224
227
226
288
288A
220
222
286
16
19
10
10
10
10
16
19
10
10
16
71
73
69
69
69
69
72
73
69
69
72
10/72
10/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
10/72
10/72
1/73
9/72
10/72
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
286A
282
282A
284
284A
19
16
19
16
19
73
71
73
71
73
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
249
*205
205
*200
200
207
206
217
215
210
211
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
234
232
233
236
231
230
230A
237
11
11
11
11
11,18
11
19
11
70
70
70
70
70
70
73
70
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
10/72
9/72
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
296
290
292
854
17
17
17
62
72
72
72
96
1/73
10/72
10/72
8/72
10/69
10/69
10/69
7/68
294
298
17
17
72
72
1/73
V?3
10/69
10/69
OECO, European countries industrial production
Orders, new and unfilled - See Anticipations and
intentions, Balance of payments, Defense,
Durable goods, and Investment, fixed.
Output - See Industrial production, NIA - Gross national
product, and Productivity.
121
See Imernatic nal compariso ns.
781
783
782
784
56,66
56
56
56
P
Plant and equipment - See Investment, fixed.
Price indexes
Consumer - See also International comparisons.
All items
.
Commodities less food
Food
Services
Deflators - See NIA - Gross national product.
Labor cost price per unit of
Materials, industrial
Materials industrial components
Stock * See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, diffusion index
Wholesale
All commodities
Farm products . .
Foods and feeds, processed
Industrial commodities
Manufactured goods
Manufactured goods, components
Production -See Industrial production, Investment, fixed,
and NIA - Gross national product.
Productivity
Output per man-hour, total private economy
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm econ. . .
Prof its -See also NIA- National and personal income.
Corporate, after taxes
Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars
Manufacturing
Manufacturing and trade net
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Prcfitability
90,103
90
90
90
3/72
2/73
2/73
2/73
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
*17
*23
D23
30,40
80
30,40
79
See Diffusion indexes.
4/72
2/73
11/68
4/69
*19
019
30,40
79
See Diffusion indexes.
2/73
5/69
750
752
751
55
58
D58
57
57
57
31,57
31,57
See Diffusion
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
5/72
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
770
858
58,59
58
19/72
9/72
10/72
6/68
8/72
8/72
8/72
7/68
1/72
7/68
ions.
1/73
3/69
*16
18
22
034
0442
15
816
91
91
91
80,91
80,91
indexes.
93
93
30,40
79
30
79
30
80
See Diffusion indexes,
See Anticipat onsand inten
30
80
See Compos e indexes.
R
Reserve position, U S official
Reserves free
534
93
See Balance o f payments - E alances.
SeeFreerese ves.
57
851
69
410
*58
0444
*54
054
59
24
76
1/73
See Inventor!
See Investme it, fixed.
44
84
1/73
24,41
76
11/72
See Anticipat 'onsand inten tions.
24,41
12/71
76
,
See Diffusior indexes,
*19
See Price indi xes- Stock,
S
Salaries - See Compensation of employees.
Sales-See also NIA-Final sales.
Final sales
Inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Machinery and equip., and bus. construction expend.
Manufacturers' total value
Manufacturing and trade
Manufacturing and trade net diffusion index
Retail stores . . . .
Retail stores components
Retail stores, constant dollars
Saving -See NIA -Saving.
Securities - See Balance of payments, Interest
rates, International comparisons - Stock prices,
and Price indexes • Stock.
Stock prices
Surplus or deficit, government - See NIA - Budget.
7/68
BS.
24
76
$r
6/72
3/73
U
Saving
Capital consumption allowances
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving to disposable personal income
Profits, undistributed corporate plus inventory
valuation adjustment
Surplus or deficit, govt
Unemployment - See Employment and unemployment.
United Kingdom - See International comparisons.
V
32
Vendor performance
29
79
2/73
W
Nondurable goods
Expenditures, personal consumption
Inventories, business, change in
Sales, final
236
275
274
*0enotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
See NIA -Pe rsonal consump tion expend itures.
S e e N I A - G r oss private dorr estic invest nent.
See NIA - Fi nal sales.
Wages and salaries - See Compensation of employees.
West Germany - See International comparisons.
Wholesale prices - See Price indexes - Wholesale.
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
NIA means National Income and Product Accounts.
121
Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the report's six sections, series are listed in
numerical order according to series numbers. The series
numbers are for identification purposes only and do not
reflect series relationships or order. To find chart and table
page numbers, historical data, and series descriptions, consult
the "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide."
The alphabetic-numeric designations following each series
title and source indicate the charts and tables in which the
series may be found. See the table of contents for the chart
and table titles and page numbers. "M" indicates monthly
series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated by "EOM" (end of
month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter).
The "A" following a series number indicates a component
series (same number) as a percent of an aggregate series, such
as GNP or national income. The series in section B preceded
by an asterisk (*} are included in the 1966 NBER "shortlist"
of cyclical indicators, chart B8. The "D" preceding a number
indicates a diffusion index.
233.
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods
except automobiles, in current dollars (()).••
Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A3)
253.
Imports of goods and services (Q),=Departmi
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(AE
260.
Government purchases of goods and services
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
nornic Analysis
261.
Government purchases of goods and services
1958 dollars {Q).™Department of Commarci
reau of Economic Analysis
262.
Federal Government purchases of goods and
ices, total {Q).~ Department of Commerce, B
of Economic Analysis
234.
Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles,
in current dollars (Q).=Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
236.
Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable
goods, in current dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
237.
Personal consumption expenditures, services, in
current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
240.
Gross private domestic investment, total (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A4)
241.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)
264.
Federal Government purchases of goods and
ices, national defense (Q).-Department of
meree, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6
State and local government purchases of
and services, total (Q).-Department of Comr
Bureau of Economic Analysis
A National Income and Product
262A. Federal Government purchases of goods and
ices as a percent of gross national pr
(Q).=Department of Commerce, Bureau of
nomie Analysis
200.
Cross national product in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, B2, B8, E5)
241A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(All)
266.
205.
Gross national product in 1958 dollars ((!}.Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, B2, B8, El, E5)
242.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)
210.
Implicit price deflator, gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A1)
266A. State and local government purchases of good
services as a percent of gross national pr
(Q),-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
nomic Analysis
243.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable equipment (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)
270.
Final sales, durable goods (Q).-Oepartmer
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
215,
Per capita gross national product in current dollars
(Q).=Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)
244.
271.
Change in business inventories, durable
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
nomic Analysis
273.
Final sales (series 205 minim series 246),
dollars (Q).-Depnrtment of Commerce, Sure
Economic Analysis
274.
Final sales, nondurable goods, (Q),-Departrm
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
275.
Change in business inventories, nondurable
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
nomic Analysis
280.
Compensation of employees (Q),-Departmei
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
217.
220.
222.
224.
Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)
National income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
244A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
245.
Personal income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
Disposable personal income in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)
Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all
industries (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4, B4)
245A. Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A1T)
246.
Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
225.
Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
226.
Per capita disposable personal income in current
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)
247.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, 1958 dollars {Q).-=Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
227.
Per capita disposable personal income in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)
248.
Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
230.
Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
249.
Gross auto product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)
230A. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(AH)
250.
231.
Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958
dollars (QK-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A3, A10)
250A. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
232.
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods,
in current dollars (Q).—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
252.
280A. Compensation of employees as a percent of na
income {Q).~ Department of Commerce, Bure
Economic Analysis
i
282.
122
Rental income of persons (Q).-Departmet
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
284A. Rental income of persons as a percent of na
income (Q).-Depart ment of Commerce, Bum
Economic Analysis
I
286.
Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grgnts (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5, D2)
of
282A. Proprietors' income as a percent of national in
(QI.-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Gear
Analysis
i
284.
Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5, D2)
Proprietors' income (Q),-= Department
fneree, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Corporate profits and inventory valuation a
ment (Q).=Departmant of Commerce, Bure<
Economic Analysis
286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation a
ment as a percent of national income (Q).-Di
ment
of
Commerce, Bureau of
Eeor
Analysis
I
les and Sources of Series
Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).-Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)
39.
Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over (EOM).—American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(86)
*16.
Corporate profits after taxes (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B5, B8)
40.
*17.
Index of price per unit of labor cost-ratio, index
of wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and
supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of
output (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present
(M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B1)
*41.
Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment survey (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, 88, E3, E4)
42.
Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor force survey (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*43.
Unemployment rate, total (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl, B8)
*44.
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1.B8)
15.
itinued)
Net interest (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
{A8}
Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).—
Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(All)
Gross saving-private saving plus government surplus or deficit (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
Personal saving (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
18.
Capital consumption allowances, corporate and
noncorporate (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)
*19.
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).Standard and Poor's Corporation
(B5, B8, E3, F3)
20.
Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories
of materials and supplies (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)
21.
Average weekly overtime hours of production
workers, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
45.
22.
Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating
incorporate business (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(85)
Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).-Department of Labor, Manpower
Administration
(B1)
46.
Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).-The Conference Board
(B1)
*23.
Index of industrial materials prices (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, B8. E3, E4)
*47.
Index of industrial production (M).—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, E3, E4, E5, F2)
Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
48.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M).- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(81, E5)
Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)
50.
Number of job vacancies in manufacturing (EOM).—
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B1)
Buying policy-production materials, percent of companies reporting commitments 60 days or longer
(M).-National Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)
*52.
Personal income (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2, 88)
53.
Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing,
and construction (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(82)
*54.
Sales of retail stores (M).-Departrnent of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(82, B8, E3, E4)
Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9>
Cyclical Indicators
Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
(B1, 88, E3, E4)
Accession rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)
24.
Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).—Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
25.
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).-Department of
Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B1, E3)
26.
Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)
Index of construction contracts, total value
(M).-McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company.
(Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(B3)
Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (B3)
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis May 1970 and by source agency
thereafter.
(B3, B8)
28.
New private housing units started, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
*29.
Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(83, B8)
55.
*31.
Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the
Census
(B4,88)
Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(85, E5)
*56.
32.
Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting
slower deliveries (M).-Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(84)
Manufacturing and trade sales (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of the Census
(82, B8)
57.
Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
33.
Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).Institute of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; Department of Housing and Urban
Development, Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)
Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference
Board
(83, E3)
Index of net business formation (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (B3, B8)
Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)
Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.
(B6)
Corporate profits after taxes, 1958 dollars (CDDepartment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)
34.
Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)
35.
Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)
37.
Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of
purchased materials (M).-National Association of
Purchasing Management; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B4)
(82)
58.
Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods
(M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(85, D4, E3, E4)
59.
Sales of retail stores, 1967 dollars (M).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(82)
*61.
Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
total (Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(B3, 88, C1, C2)
*62.
Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and
salaries and supplements to wages and salaries) to
index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
{85, B8)
123
Titles and Sources of Series
118.
Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages
(M).-Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(86)
*200.
Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in
section A.
(Continued)
63.
Index of unit labor cost, total private economy
(Q).~D3partment of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5)
65.
Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)
66.
Consumer installment debt {EOM).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally
adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted
figure for previous month to obtain current figure
(B6)
*67.
Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities
(Q).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
'
{B6,88}
*205.
Gross national product in 1958 dollars (0). Sea in
section A.
245.
Change in business inventories (GNP component)
(Q). See in section A.
810.
Twelve leading indicators-reverse trend adjusted
composite index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16,
17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
811.
Twelve leading indicators composite index prior to
reverse trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10,
12, 16, 17, 19. 23. 29, 31, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
813.
Marginal employment adjustments-leading composite index (includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(87)
425.
Mean probability (average chances in 100} of s
stantial changes (increase, decrease, and increase
decrease) in income of households {Q}. Departm
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(I
430.
Number of new cars purchased by househc
(Q).=Department of Commerca, Bureau of
Census
(
435.
Index of consumer sentiment (Q).-University
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(
D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q).-Oun and Srodstri
Inc. (Used by par mission. This series may not
reproduced without written permission from
source.)
(
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q).- Dun i
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This serins r
not be reproduced without written permission fr
the source.)
(
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q).=Dun i
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This surius n
not be reproduced without written permission fr
the source.)
(
68.
Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product
(1958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations-ratio of
current dollar compensation of employees to gross
corporate product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B5)
69.
Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and
commercial construction put in place) (M).Departrnent of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)
814.
Capital investment commitments-leading composite
index (includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)
*71.
Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value
{EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(B4, 88}
815.
Inventory investment and purchasing-leading composite index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37)
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
*72.
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (B6, 88)
816.
Profitability-leading composite index (includes series
16, 17, and 19} (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(67}
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q}.- Dm
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This serins
not be reproduced without written permission
the source.}
817.
Sensitive financial flows—leading composite index
(includes series 33, 85, 112. and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and I
street, Inc. (Used by permission. This series rna<
be reproduced without written permission fron
source.)
D464. Sellinq prices, wholesale trade (Q).-Dun ond I
street, Inc. (Used by permission. Thisseries m\
be reproduced without written permission fron
source.)
85.
Change in U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus
currency) [M1] (M).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(86)
93.
Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)
820.
Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 41, 43, 47. 52. and 56) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (87, E5}
Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EQM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)
825.
Five coincident indicators-deflated composite index
(includes series 41, 43, 47, 52Q and 56D) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)
830.
Six lagging indicators-composite index (includes
series 44, 61, 62, 67, 71, 72) {M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(87)
96.
97.
Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
(EOQK-The Conference Board
(B3)
102.
Change in U.S. money supply plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's [M2]
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
103.
Change in U.S. money supply, plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's, plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions [M3] {M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(86)
C Anticipations and Intentions
61.
410.
110.
Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers
in credit markets {Q).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
{86)
112.
Net chiinge in bank loans to businesses (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(86)
*113.
Net change in consumer installment debt (M),-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (86, 88)
114.
Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
{B6)
115.
Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).—Treasury
Department
(B6)
116.
Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).-First National City Bank of New York and
Treasury Department
(B6)
117.
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).—The
Bond Buyer
(86)
412.
414.
124
416.
420.
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and tr
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. {Used by permissi
This series may not be reproduced without writ
permission from the source.)
(
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and tr
(Q).~Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permi$":
This series may not be reproduced without wr
permission from the source.)
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q).-Oun and Brad si
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may nc
reproduced without written permission from
source.)
D Other Key Indicators
55.
Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodi
{M). See in section B.
Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries (Q). See in section B.
58.
Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (
See in section B.
Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(C1)
211.
Fixed weighted price index, gross private prod
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau oi t icon a
Analysis
(
250.
Balance on goods and services; U.S. balance
payments (Q). See in section A.
252.
Exports of goods and services, excluding trans
under military grants; U.S. balance of payments I
See in section A.
253.
Imports of goods and services: U.S. balance
payments (Q). See in section A.
264.
Federal Government purchases of goods and sorvi
national defense {Q}. See in section A.
500.
Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus si
512} (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Census
(
502.
Exports, excluding military acd shipments, t
(M)."Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Census
(
Manufacturers' inventories, total book value
(EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD
Percent of total book value of inventories held by
manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less
percent classifying holdings as low {EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(CD
Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective operations over the next 12
months, less percent classifying existing capacity as
excessive {EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(C1)
Current income of households compared to income a
year ago (percent higher, lower, and unchanged)
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD
Titles and Sources of Series
546.
Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
748.
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-first year average (mean) changes (Q).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statisttcs(D5)
547.
749.
Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods
except motor vehicles and parts (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D1)
U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
{02}
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-average (mean) changes over life of contract
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
548.
Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
750.
Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery
(M).-McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(01)
Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D4)
549.
Payments for transportation and other services: U.S.
balance of payments {QK-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
751.
Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
512.
General imports, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(01)
560.
752.
Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics{04)
515.
Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Balance on goods, services and remittances; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02)
561.
U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(02)
770.
Index of output per man-hour, total private economy
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(Q5)
Balance on current account; U.S. balance of payments {Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(02)
564.
781.
Index of consumer prices (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04, E5, F1)
Balance on current account and long term capital;
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
565.
782.
Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
Net liquidity balance; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(02)
U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
570.
Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02)
783.
Index of consumer prices, commodities less food
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(04)
Official reserve transactions balance; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Oepartment of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(02)
575.
Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02)
784.
Index of consumer prices, services (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all
foreigners, total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments {EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
600.
Federal Government surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)
841.
Total civilian labor force, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)
601.
Federal Government receipts, national income and
product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(03)
842.
Total civilian employment, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(06)
843.
Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(06)
844.
Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(06)
(Continued)
506.
508.
517.
519.
521.
522.
530.
532.
534.
535.
536.
Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding
military grants) to foreign official agencies, total
outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
{02)
616.
Allocations to the U.S. of Special Drawing Rights:
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Defense Department obligations incurred, total,
excluding military assistance (M).-Department of
Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(03)
621.
Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M).-Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis
Divisioh; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D3)
625.
Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms
and institutions (M).-Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)
845.
Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)
647.
New orders, defense products industries (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (03)
846.
648.
New orders, defense products (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)
Unemployment rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D6)
847.
740.
Index of average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime
(in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
Unemployment rate, white, labor force survey
(M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(06)
848.
Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime
(in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
Unemployment rate, Negro and other races, labor
force survey (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)
858.
Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(05)
859.
Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervispry workers (with 3 dependents)
on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1967 dollars
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
{05}
Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military:
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
{02}
540.
U.S. investment income, military sales, and other
services exports, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Qepartment of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
541.
Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures
and other services imports: U.S. balance of payments
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
542.
Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
543.
Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02)
545.
Federal expenditures, national income and product
accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(03)
U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding
military grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
537.
544.
602.
741.
Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
745.
Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of
payments {Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
746.
Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(05)
U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
Washington, D.C. 20402
POSTAGE AND
FEES PAID
U.S. GOVERNMENT
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
PRINTING OFFICE
375
FIRST CLASS MAIL
Titles and Sources of Series
47.
Index of industrial production (M). See in section 6.
48,
Man-hours in nonagr(cultural establishments (M). See
in section B.
200,
GNP in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
205,
Gross naticinal product in 1958 dollars (Q), See in
section A.
206,
Potential Im/el of gross national product in 1958
dollars {Q}.-Council of Economic Advisers
(E1)
207,
Gap-trie potential GNP (series 206) less the actual
GNP
(series 205)
(Q).-Council of Economic
Advisers
(El)
820.
850.
851.
852.
853.
854.
Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B.
Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and McGraw-Hill Economics
Department
(E2)
Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56),
manufacturing and trade total (EOM).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(E2)
Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income
(series 292 divided by series 224) (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(E2)
127.
Italy, index of industrial production (M) -Institute
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(F2)
128.
Japan, index of industrial production (M),-Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)
132.
United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M). Ministry of Labour (London)
(F1)
133.
Canada, index of consumer prices (M).-Dominion
Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F1)
135.
West Germany, index of consumer prices (M), Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(F1)
136.
France, index of consumer prices (M).=lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(F1)
137.
Italy, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstituta Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(F1)
138.
Japan, index of consumer prices (M). Gffit;(i of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo)
(F1)
United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M). See in section B.
142.
United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-The
Financial Times (London)
(F3)
United States, index of industrial production (M).
See in section B.
143.
Canada, index of stock prices (M).- -Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)
145.
West Germany, index of stock
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
146.
France, index of stock prices (M).-lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Ecoriomiques (Paris)
(F3)
147.
Italy, index of stock prices (M).-lnstituto Central di
Statistica (Rome)
(F3)
148.
Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock
Exchange (Tokyo)
(F3)
781.
United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in
section D.
860.
Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to total number of persons unemployed
(M).-The Conference Board, and Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index.
Diffusion indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the
same number and are obtained from the same sources. See
section B for titles and sources of D1,.D5, D6, D11, D19,
D23, D41, D47, 054, D58, D61, and section C for D440,
D442. D444, D446, D450, D460, D462, D464, D466, and
D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34.
Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q).^First National
City Bank of New York; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)
F International Comparisons
19.
47.
121.
Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods (EOM).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods (M).-Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon components of !he Federal Reserve index of industrial
production.)
(E2)
France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(F2)
Vacancy rate in rental housing-unoccupied rental
housing units as a percent of total rental housing
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)
(Continued)
E Analytical Measures
126.
857.-
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial
production (M).-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(F2)
122.
United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M).-Central Statistical Office (London)
(F2)
123.
Canada, index of industrial production
Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
125.
(M).(F2)
West Germany, index of industrial production
(M).-Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal
adjustment by OECD
(F2)
prices (M),(F3)
@FedFRASER