Full text of Business Conditions Digest : May 1971
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MAY
1971
DATA THROUGH APRIL
NITED STATES
ARTMENT OF
IMMERCE
BLICATION
\
U.S.
DEPARTMENT
OF
COMMERCE
Bureau
of the
Census
BUSINESS
CONDITIONS
DIGEST
This report was prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division,
Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication
are—
Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and review,
Barry A, Beckman—Specifications for computer processing
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F, Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic
data. (Telephone 440-1596)
Editorial supervision is provided by Maureen Padgett of the
Administrative and Publications Services Division.
The cooperation of various government and private agencies
which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies
furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources
at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of
a technical committee established by the Office of Management
and Budget. The committee consists of the following persons:
Julius Shiskin, Chairman
Office of Management and Budget
Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisers, Executive
Office of the President
Edwin D. Goldfieid, Bureau of the Census, Department of
Commerce
George Jaszi, Office of Business Economics, Department of
Commerce
Geoffrey H. Moore, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department
of Labor
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Maurice H. Stans, Secretary
James T. Lynn, Under Secretary
Harold C. Passer, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
George Hay Brown, Director
Edwin D. Goldfield, Assistant Director
Benjamin D. Kaplan, Chief
Statistical Indicators Division
Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board
ABOUT THE REPORT
NATIONAL
INCOME AMD
PRODUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
persona/, bus/ness, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinc/ders, or laggers in rel&tion to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
fey economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
$elected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.
Subscription price, including supplements, is $15 a year ($3.75 additional for foreign mailing).
Single issues aVe $1.50.
AirmajJ delivery is available at an additional charge.
For
information about domestic or foreign airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of
This monthly report brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters. Its predecessor, Bus/ness Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the
analysis of business conditions and was based largely on
the list of leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Some other approaches commonly used by students of economic conditions include econometric models
and anticipations and intentions data. The econometric
model concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships among consumption, private investment, government,
and various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of businessmen and the intentions of consumers.
Most of the content of Business Cycle Developments has
been retained in this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of other approaches have been added to
make it more generally useful to those concerned with
an evaluation of current business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is
not to be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau
of the Census or any other government agency of any particular approach to economic analysis. This report is intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report
have been published by their source agencies. A series
finding guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and
data sources, is shown at the back of this report.
Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address laoei, Mane cnecKs payable
to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington,
D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce field office.
New Features and Changes for This Issue
jjj
0F PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments..
MCD Moving Averages
„
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons „
How to Read Charts..,How to Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
MAY 1971
Data Through April
Series ESI No. 71-5
Al
A2
A3
JV4
A5
A6
A7
AS
A9
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Final Sales and Inventories...
National Income Components....
Saving.
CYCLICAL
B6
B8
Selected Indicators by Taming
Composite Indexes
NBER Short List
B2
J33
B4
....
9
:................................. 10
.... 11
12
13
14
15
..;
16
17
fi»i€AT@fli
Economic
amd CydosaS Timtof
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Bl
1
1
...........__....„._...._. 1
1
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
5
18
21
23
26
28
30
;
34
36
ANTICIPATIONS AND
Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes
40
43
:
OTHER KEY
D2 I
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components..
Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
Actual and Potential Gross National Product
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Rates of Change
46
47
52
54
....
56
57
59
61
6NTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Fl
F2
F3
Consumer Prices..,
Industrial Production..,
,
,
Stock Prices................
62
63
64
PART II. TABLES
NATOONAL
AND PRODUCT
Gross National Product-,.....
National and Personal Income
....
....
Personal Consumption Expenditures.,,........,-.
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving..
....
65
65
66
66
67
67
67
67
68
JNDOCATORS
B7
E(g©n0mie Process and Cyclical Timing
Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade.....
Fixed Capital Investment......
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
69
71
72
74
75
76
i©fl©ettd Ssnd3ieat@f$ fey Timing
Composite Indexes.....
78
,
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Aggregate Series..
Diffusion Indexes..
....
79
80
Foreign Trade.
Balance of Payments and Major Components
82
83
Federal Government Activities....„..„.
Price Movements.............
85
86
.
ANALYTICAL
Actual and Potential GNP....
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes................
Selected Diffusion Index Components.................
87
88
89
92
Consumer Prices...
Industrial Production...
Stock Prices........
98
99
100
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
QCD and Related Measures of Variability
B. Current Adjustment Factors................
C. Historical Data for Selected Series (See Index-Series Finding Guide)
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See Index-Series Finding Guide)
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States:
1854 to 1961
F. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators
Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources for Series
101
104
107
ii
108
109
113
115
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
nanges in this issue are as foFlows:
(\^ y JA limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made 6y
source agencies in
concept, compos/tfon,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
1* The series on net business formation (series 12) has been
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
revised to reflect the adoption of a new base period (1967=100)
for computing this index, and to incorporate revised seasonally
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
1
adjusted data for the series components.
other series, changes
in composition of
2. The consumer price indexes for food and commodities less
food (series 782 and 783) and the wholesale price indexes for
processed foods and feeds a,nd farm products (series 751 and 752)
have been revised to reflect a new seasonal adjustment of the
data by the source agency«
Data based on the new seasonal
factors are shown in this issue from January 1969 to date.
Data for the earlier period will be shown in a subsequent issue.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained
from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Prices and Living
C onditions *
The June issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
release on June 30.
iii
indexes, etc.
4 CENSUS PROJECTS on economic fluctuations
BUSINESS
DIGEST
CONDITIONS
LONG TERM
ECONOMIC GROWTH
DEFENSE INDICATORS
COMPUTER PROGRAMS
FOR TIME SERIES
ANALYSIS
A monthly report for
analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short
span of
This report brings together
approximately 600 monthly
and quarterly economic time
series in a form which is
convenient for analysts
whether their approach to
the study of current business
conditions and prospects is
the national income model
the leading Indicators,
anticipations and intentions,
or a combination of these,
Other -types of data such as
foreign trade. Federal government activities, and international comparisons of consumer prices;, stock prices,
and industrial production are
included to facilitate a more
complete analysis.
Data are presented in charts
and tables, and appendixes
are included which provide
historical data, series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of
variability. Also, a computer
tape containing data for
most of the series in the
report is available for pur*
chase.
A report for the study of
economic fluctuations
over a long span of years,
1860-1965.
A monthly report for
analyzing the current and
prospective impact of
defense activity on the
national economy
This report has been
developed from available
statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view
of the U.S. economy. It has
been planned, prepared, and
published as a basic research
document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers,
and students. It brings
together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the
complete statistical basis for
a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique
presentation of the full range
of factors required for an
understanding of our
country's economic development. Some of the statistical
series go back to 1860. A
computer tape file of the time
series included in the report
is available for purchase.
This report brings together
the principal time series on
defense activities which
influence short-term changes
in the national economy.
These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders,
shipments, inventories,
expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 50 time series included
are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the
activities they measure occur
in the defense order-production-de/ivery process. Most
are monthly series, although
a few are quarterly. This
publication provides original
and seasonally adjusted basic
data in monthly, quarterly,
and annual form. Charts and
analytical tables are included
to facilitate interpretation.
IV
The source statements for
FORTRAN IV programs which
are used by the Bureau in
its analysis of ttime series
are available from the Bureau
on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT
PROGRAMS.—Two variants
of the Census computer
program for measuring and
analyzing seasonal, tradingday, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations and the relations
among them. They are particularly useful in analyzing
economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The
X-ll variant is used for
adjusting monthly data and the
X-J1Q for quarterly data.
These programs can make additive as well as multiplicative
adjustments and compute
many summary and analytical
measures of the behavior
of each series.
DIFFUSION INDEX
PROGRAM.—A computer
program for computing diffusion indexes, cumulated
diffusion indexes, and
summary measures of the
properties of each index.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
National income and Product
Cyclical Indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons
Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part if (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 1950 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, most
charts contain shading which indicates
periods of recession in general business
activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, some issues contain a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures ©f variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue,
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for Identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects; of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis,
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical! factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD
moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.
SECTION A
NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Office of Business Economics (OBE), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Persona/ consumpt/on expend/tores is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-
cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures
the excess of exports over imports of goods
and services. Exports include both domestic output sold abroad and the contribution to production abroad made by U.S.owned resources. Imports include both
U.S. purchases of foreign output and the
contribution made to production in the
United States by foreign-owned resources.
More detail on U.S. balance of payments
is provided in section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an
1
accounting period, lit is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances,
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some ar0 shown
on a constant (1938) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
SECTION 8
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; th,-at is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not "consider it
inevitable,
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a
tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses tha same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 73 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly,,
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that
of
the coincident index. This facilitates
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
>v
Economic
Process
x.
X.
X.
1. EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)
X.
Cyclical
Timing
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)
IV. INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(10 series)
VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(17 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins
(4 series)
Rows of money
and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)
Unit labor costs
(2 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans
and mortgages
(2 series)
\
X
Marginal employment
adjustments
(6 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(37 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(25 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
Comprehensive
Backlog of investment
production
commitments
(3 series)
(2 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (3 series)
Investment
expenditures
(2 series)
Inventories
(2 series)
comparisons among the leading, coincident,
and lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C
ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION! D
OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
sucb series, though by no means a com
prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks).! Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
Because these data are influenced by
foreign as well as domestic conditions,
the cyclical shading has been omitted
from the balance-of-payments charts.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures
and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and
product accounts, but are not shown in
section A of this report. The defense series
included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of
defense activities, see Defense Indicators,
a monthly Bureau of the Census publication.
The price movements series consist of
consumer and wholesale price indexes and
their major components. Additional data
on prices and costs are shown in several
other sections.
SECTION E
ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council fof
Economic Advisers in the early 1960 s,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates, Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected group
of economic series. Percent changes at annual rate are shown for 1- and 3-month
spans or for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F
INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development, The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) as
designated by NBER,
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER,
Basic Data
Arabic number indicates latest
2Q — .Xmonth for which data are plotted,
("6" = June)
1814-
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MOD moving averages.*)
^ Roman number indicates latest
J/quarter for which data are
/ plotted, ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L»2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.
Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-monl:h spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as we]I as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages arc plotted iy2, 2,
or 2*/2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the "Index—Series Finding Guide" in the back of the book where series are arranged into six
sections and various subsections. Also, in the list of "Titles and Sources of Series" which follows the Finding Guide, series are
listed in numerical order within each of the six sections, and the charts and tables in which they appear are indicated.
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1968
1969
1970
4th Q
1969
IstQ
1970
Percent change
2dQ
3dQ
1970
1970
4th Q
1970
IstQ
1971
2dQ
to
adQ
3dQ
to
4th Q
4th Q
to
1st Q.
1970
1970
1971
Series number |
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Al. Grots National Product
200.
205.
210
215.
217
.... Ann.rate,bil.dol.
do
1958=100
Ann. rate, dol.. ,
... do
865.0
707.2
122, 3
4*311
3*525
931,4
727.1
128.1
4i596
3t588
976,5
724.1
134.9
4»767
3f535
951,7
729.2
130.5
4 1676
3*583
959,5
723,8
132.6
4i703
3*548
971,1
724.9
134,0
4»748
3i544
985.5
727. 4
135.5
4*805
3 1546
989.9 1020.7
720.3 732.7
139.3
137.4
4t8l2 4*949
3*501 3 1 552
1,5
0.3
1.1
1*2
0.1
Ann.rate,bil.dol.
do
do
Disposable personal income current dol . . .
do
Disposable personal income, constant dol. .
Per capita disposable personal income,
Ann. rate, dol...
current dollars
Per capita disposable personal income,
do
712.7
688.7
591.2
499.0
769.5
748.9
631.6
511.5
800.1
801.0
684.8
529.8
785,2
770.5
650.6
517.8
791,5
782,3
665.3
522.9
797.4
801.3
683,6
532.0
606,6
807,2
693.0
534,2
804.8
813.3
697.2
530.0
833.2
831.5
715.1
538.3
1.2
0.7
1.4
0*4
2*947
3tH7
3i344
3il97
3t261
3t342
3*378
3*389
3f467
1.1
2*487
2*525
2i587
2*544
2*563
2*601
2*604
2t576
3*610
0.1
535,8
452*3
577.5
467.7
90*0
616,7
477,1
592.6
471.7
603.1
474.0
614.4
478.1
622.1
479.6
627.0
476.6
646.4
486.6
58.2
31*8
89.4
61.1
28.3
90.8
58.3
32.5
89.1
60.2
28.9
91.9
61.5
30.4
91,2
61.3
29.9
85.3
61.3
24.0
97.5
63.3
34-2
230.2
221.6
245.8
241.6
264.7
262,6
252.0
249,8
258,8
255.2
262.6
259,9
265.8
265.1
271.5
270.2
272.8
276.1
126.5
139.8
135.7
102.6
140.2
102.6
133.2
102.6
134.3
102.8
138.3
103.6
137.1
101.3
142*4
105.1
35.2
67.4
29.7
35.1
67.5
30.4
35.3
67.5
35,0
66,6
29.2
34.7
66.6
32.2
36.1
69.0
35.8
GNP in current dollars . . .
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
0,4
-1.0
1.4
0.1
-1.3
3.1
1.7
1.4
2.8
1.5
20(
20
21(
21
21
3,5
2.2
2.6
1.6
22(
22!
22<
22
2.3
22<
1.3
22'
3,1
2.1
23<
23
23
23
23
23<
23
A2. National and Ptrsonel Income
220 National income, current dollars
224
225.
226.
227.
-0.2
0.8
0.6
-0.8
0.3
-1.1
A3. Personal Consumption Exptndltures
230.
231.
232.
233
Total current dollars
..
Total, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars.
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars. .
236 Nondurable goods, current dollars
237 Services current dollars
Ann.rate,bil.dol.
do
do
do
do
do
do
84.0
53.8
30.2
1,3
0.3
-0.8
-0.3
-1.6
1.2
2.0
0.8
-0.6
-6.5
o.o
-19.7
2.1
1.9
14.3
3.3
42,5
0,5
2,2
A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240.
241
242.
243
244
do
Gross private domestic investment, total. . .
do
Fixed investment total nonresidential ....
do
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures.
...
.
d
o
Fixed investment producers' dur. equip.. . .
do
Fixed investment residential structures, . . ...
do
88.7
29.6
59,1
30.3
7.6
99.3
33,8
65.5
32.0
8.5
3,5
7.2
35.7
66,9
29.1
1.6
28*4
3,1
5,5
3.6
1.4
3.0
0.8
1.6
2.8
2.4
-0.9
-2.2
-0,9
-2.9
10,3
-1.9
0.1
0.0
-1.6
-1.3
-0.8
3,9
3,8
4.0
3.6
11*2
-2.2
24
24
24
24
24
24
AS. Foreign Trade
250 Net exports of goods and services 2
252. Exports
253 Imports
...
do
do
do
4.1
4.2
2.6
3.3
50.6
48.1
55.5
53.6
62.2
58.6
58,8
56,2
61.1
57.6
62.8
58.7
62.8
58.6
62.0
59.3
64.6
61.3
do
do
... . d o
do
200.2
212.2
101.3
220.5
216.3
102.1
219.6
102.3
218.4
221.0
223,2
228.7
78.8
79.3
99.7
76.8
98.6
75.8
98.2
74.6
98.4
74.0
-0.2
0.7
4.2
3.4
25
25
25
2,5
0.2
4.2
26
26
26
26
-5.0
8.1
27
-8.9
6.4
0.3
27
27
1.2
A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260
262
264.
266
Total
Federal
National defense
State and local
99.5
78.0
1.2
78.8
99.7
76.6
100.7
110.8
120.9
114.2
117.4
118.7
122.4
125.0
130.2
do
170.4
183.9
185.3
187.4
185.5
188,5
188.3
178.8
193.3
do
do
5.7
252.5
6.4
267.7
-0.2
-0.3
-1.9
280.0
283.3
5.2
286.0
-3.7
285.6
5.3
274.3
293.3
2.7
294.2
do
2.0
2.1
3.6
1.9
1.9
5.0
0.3
7.2
514.1
564.2
599.8
582,1
592.2
596.4
603.8
606.7
625.2
64.1
21.3
85.4
27.8
66.8
22.0
85.8
30.7
67.6
22.7
76.5
33.5
67,2
22,3
82.0
31.7
67.6
22.5
76.7
32.4
67.8
22.6
77.5
33.1
67.8
22.7
78.4
33.8
67.4
23.0
73.3
34.5
67.0
23.1
128.6
143.6
138.2
144.2
139.3
138.5
140.6
134.3
134.0
40.4
37.6
50.2
41.1
44.8
51.5
52.7
51.8
49.8
do
do
do
21,6
74.0
-7.3
18.5
78.9
13.8
84.3
15.4
80.7
14.3
83.6
14.1
85.0
13.3
86.5
18.0
88.4
-1.4
-17.3
-13.2
-0.3
do
-7.4
-1.1
-1.3
3.1
1.0
-0.4
-1.6
2.1
-0.8
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
270 Final sales durable goods
271, Change in business inventories, durable
goods2
274 Final sales nondurable goods
275. Change in business inventories, nondur-
-1.4
-0.1
7.1
l.O
-4.7
2.6
6.9
-8.6
27
A3. Notional Income Components
286. Corp. profits and inventory va luation adj . .
do
do
do
do
do
82*7
35*2
1.2
0.0
0.4
1.2
2*1
0.5
-0.6
1*3
-6,5
2,1
3.0
-0.6
0.4
12.8
2.0
28
28
28
28
26
A9. Saving
... . do
do
294! Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory va luation adjustment
298 Government surplus or deficit, total
. ».
2
8.7
-10.1
7.1
13,6
82.1
-1.2
0.8
34,2
9.4
22.6
-10.9
-11.2
1.5
2.3
1.7
-4.5
-1.7
-0.2
-3.9
29
29
-5.7
35.3
29
29
29
1.8
-6.1
2,2
4.1
El. Actuol and Potential GNP
?(17. RNP MD footential less actual)2
29,4
34.9
50.1
45.9
5.5
15.2
-4.2
?0
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1969
3dQ
1970
1970
4th Q
Percent change
IstQ
1971
1970
March
1971
Feb.
1971
April
1971
Feb.
to
March
1971
March
to
April
1971
3dQ
to
4th Q
1970
4th Q
to
IstQ
Series number
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
1971
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Compos! t» Indexes
117.3
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj 3 ; 1967™100 . .
820* 5 coincident indicators
119.7
M . . . do
» . . . . do . . . 125.0
LEADING INDICATOR SECTOttS
do
do
do
do
do .....
813. Marginal employment adjustments
102.2
110.0
104.2
100.7
103,0
115.1
120.8
130.9
11.5.3
121,0
132,0
114.7
118.6
129.5
120.3
121,7
130.0
119.9
122,4
121.8
122.3
130 . 1 130,8
124,1
122,5
130.9
2.1
0.4
0.5
1,4
0,2
0,1
0.1
1,0
0,0
0,7
1.9
95.1
95,2
93.2
95,4
95,4
95,5
106.6
103.2
106.3
103.0
106.8
101.9
109,1
102,2
108,8
102,4
109,9
102,4
94.1
98.8
93.5
93.2
96.2
97,6
98,0
98.7
100.8
100.5
101,2
103.1
NA
109.8
103.8
100.2
NA
39,8
39.7
39,5
39,7
39.5
39.9
39.8
-0.5
-2.0
-1,9
4,9
2.6
0.4
810
NA
-0.1
1.4
1.5
NA
-2,1
0.5
-1,1
-0,3
-4,6
2.4
2.2
0.3
4.7
4.5
813
814
815
816
817
830
B1. Employment and Unemployment
LEAD WG INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. .. Hours
21. Avg. weekly overtime hours, production
4. Nonagrl. placements, ail industries
1.0
-0,3
-0.5
0,5
1
3,6
5tl49
4,7
3.0
NA
4.0
2.9
NA
4.0
2,7
NA
3,7
2.8
NA
3.8
2.9
NA
3,9
2.8
NA
3.9
2.8
NA
NA
-Oil
NA
0.0
0.0
NA
NA
-0.2
NA
-0.3
0.1
NA
0,1
21
4
2
194
1.2
296
1,8
297
1.8
325
2.0
284
1.7
278
1,6
291
1.7
274
NA
-4.7
-0,1
5,8
NA
-9.4
-0.2
12.6
0.3
5
3
319
122
NA
93
NA
90
NA
79
NA
77
NA
77
NA
78
NA
78
NA
1,3
NA
0.0
NA
-12,2
NA
-2.5
49
46
139.1
138,6
138.3
137.1
137.4
136,6
137.8
138.0
70,3
74.3
70,7
75,2
70.5
75.1
70.2
75.2
70.6
75.2
70,6
75.2
70.7
75.1
70.7
75.1
0,7
0.1
-0,1
0.1
0.0
0.0
-0.9
-0.4
0*1
0,2
0.6
0,0
43
41
42
40.6
do
Ann.ratetthous ..
Per 100 employ..
*5. Avg, weekly initial clamis, State 4
unemployment insurance (inverted ) . . Thousands
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing {'inverted''*) 2. • i Per 100 employ..
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Job Vacancies:
Thous.. EOP..»
Comprehensive Employment;
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural
establishments.
Ann. rate, billion
man-hours
Millions ...
42. Persons engaged in mmagri, activities. . .
do
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted4;2. ., percent
45. Avg. weekly insured
unemployment
do
rate (inverted ) 2
40. Unemployment rale, married males
do
3.5
5.0
5,2
5.9
5.9
5.6
2.1
6.0
6.1
-0,2
-0.1
-0.7
0,0
43
3.8
4.1
-0,1
-0.3
-0.3
0,3
45
0,0
40
1.5
2.6
2,8
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.1
0,0
0.1
-0.4
0.5
0,8
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
0,0
0.0
-0.2
931.4
727.1
172,8
976,5
724,1
167.6
985.5
727.4
167.9
989.9 1020.7
720.3
732,7
162.7
165,4
165.2
165.5
166.0
0.2
0.3
0*4
-1.0
-3.1
3,1
1,7
1*7
200
205
47
Ann.rate.bil.dol..
do
748,9
194,5
801.0
198.0
807.2
198,7
813,3
195.5
831,5
200.0
830,4
199.1
836.8
201.1
841.3
201.7
0.8
1.0
0,5
0.3
0*8
-1*6
2,2
2,3
52
53
do
do
.... do
1*246
922.9
351,5
1?279
973,1
364,5
1? 299
980,0
369,6
1»273
If 327
986.3 1019.3
364.9 379.8
If329
If 343
NA
1.1
NA
379,3
386.2
NA
1.8
NA
-2,0
0,6
-1,3
4.2
3.3
4.1
56
57
54
116.2
274.0
108,1
266,0
105.6
266.1
105.3
264.4
106,9
265.9
105.6
251.1
109.2
278,6
NA
NA
3.4
11*0
NA
NA
-0.3
-0,6
1.5
0.6
12
13
368.2
125
355.6
126
367.2
123
352.4
126
94.6
26.5
77.9
92.4
24.0
79,9
382.4
126
108.2
99.6
373.4
161
103.7
-0.3
11.9
-7.8
-2.0
14.2
3.9
-4,0
95.2
25.7
77,2
380,2
128
102,8
381.2
141
95.7
29.8
78.7
22,5
85.1
90,2
81.2
77,3
-10.0
-4.8
7,9
1.6
11,3
-6.2
6,5
6
8
10
11
24
905
1(486
116,1
766
If 457
116.0
767
If5l2
119.0
642
If777
139,6
679
IfSlO
141,0
600
If 754
137.0
785
It 950
142.6
658
If 903
141,8
30.8
11.2
4,1
86,21
23,85
79.46
21.57
79.56
22.30
79,46
21.57
80,53
20.96
80.84
80.53
79.92
-0,4
LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and
do
-0,2
44
B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Production;
*2QO. GNP in current dolUrs
*205. GNP in 1958 dollar;;
*47. Industrial production
* . Ann.rate.bil.dol..
* . ..... do .....
1957-59=100....
Comprehensive Income:
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr ..
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*56. Manufacturing ;jnd trade sales
B3. Fixed Copital Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Eiterprises:
*12. Index of net business formation
1957-59-100....
Ann, rate, thous..
New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries. . . .Ann.rate,bil.dol.,
8. Construction contracts, total value
1967-100,
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment. . . Ann.rate.bil.dol..
do
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing
24, New orders, producers' cap. goods Indus •
do
9, Construction contracts, commercial
Ann,rate,mil.sq.
and industrial Mldings
ft. floor space ..
28. New private housing units started, total . .Ann. rate, thous. .
»29. New bldg. permits, private housing.
1967-100
a, 4
-2.3
-9.4
2.6
-16.2
-2.4
-0.6
-16.3
17,5
17,3
5.8
1.9
1.0
9
28
29
-0.8
-O.I
-3.3
1.3
»2.8
96
97
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries 5 Bil.dol., EOP...
.....do .....
Table 1, Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
Basic data1
Series title
Unit
of
measure
1969
3dQ
1970
1970
4th Q
1970
Percent change
IstQ
1971
Feb.
1971
March
1971
April
1971
Feb.
to
March
1971
March
to
April
1971
3dQ
to
4th Q
4th Q
to
IstQ
1970
1971
o>
t/J
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Coii.
B3. Fixed Capitol Investment—Con.
LAGG/NG INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
*61. Business expend., new plant and equip . .Ann.rate,bil.dol. . 75*54
69. Machinery and equipment sales and
do
92,20
79.74
81.88
78.63
94.75
96.34
93.66
97,75
-4.0
2.4
61
97.84
97.89
NA
0.1
NA
-2,8
4,4
69
3.9
6.3
NA
2.4
NA
-6,2
51
57
2
6
0
NA
-0.5
NA
2.5
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in business
inventories, all
industries2.
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
Ann. rate, billion
dollars
8.5
12,2
3.5
6.2
5.5
10.6
3.6
1,4
4.4
4,6
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
Percent
Ann. rate, billion
20. Change in book value, manufacturers'
inventories of materials, supplies2.
dollars
26. Buying policy, production materials,
2
commitments 60 days or longer ®. . . .Percent
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
do
slower deliveries ©
„. :
25. Change in unfilled
orders, durable goods Ann. rate, billion
industries2
dollars
-1,9
49
245
-2.2
0.2
31
3
37
50
46
46
46
1.2
0.9
0.7
3.2
63
55
51
53
56
59
56
57
-3
1
2
3
26
65
51
47
37
43
44
46
52
2
6
-10
6
32
4.2
6.1
-3.8
6,2
4,6
25
2.6
49
-1.0
-0.9
-1.4
-9.9
20
-4,2
-6,7
-6.6
-0.4
164.9
171,1
170.0
171,1
172,3
171.8
172,3
NA
0.3
NA
0,6
0.7
71
31.64
34,32
33.70
34.32
34,79
34.64
34.79
NA
0.4
NA
1.8
1*4
65
111.3
113.9
111.4
108,3
107.0
107.2
107.8
110.2
0.6
2.2
97,8
83.2
78.7
86.2
96.7
97.1
99.6
103.0
2.6
3.4
48.5
43.8
45.4
41.4
47.5
-7.3
-3.5
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories5. . Bil.dol., EOP...
65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories
do......
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23 Industrial materials prices©
1967-100
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks © .... 1941-43=10
Profits and Prof it Margins:
* 16. Corporate profits, after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
Ann.rate.bil.dol. ,
Percent
15. Profitsfafter taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.i! Cents
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
1957-59=100....
10,2
4,8
8.8
4.0
9.1
4.0
8.2
3.6
9.0
NA
99.0
97.4
97.4
96.3
96.2
96,2
96.2
96.6
0.0
0.4
106.0
106.2
110.0
110.2
110.2
110.7
111.4
111.2
112,5
112.3
112,5
112.4
112.8
112.7
113.3
113.0
0.3
0.3
0.4
0,3
0.763
0.810
120.6
.0.811
0.828
0,826
114.4
121.2
123.2
124,6
124.6
125.0
124.9
0.3
-l.O
11.2
18.6
12.6
18,2
21.6
14.0
22.9
-1.2
23
12,2
19
-8.8
14.7
16
-0.9
-0.4
-1.1
-0.1
-2.8
9.5
0.8
NA
22
15
17
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities ©. 1967-100
do
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods©.
1.1
0.5
1.0
1.0
55
58
LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
Dollars
1957-59-100....
-0.1
2.1
1.7
-0.2
1.1
68
62
B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in money supply and time
Ann. rate, percent
......do
Ann.rate,bil.dol. .
do
*ll^ Change in consumer installment debt ...
do
do
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.4) ©
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans
3.1
20,0
8.1
5.3
19.7
2.8
0.2
6.1
22.3
4.1
3.2
11.0
93.9
84.2
81.5
89,2
8.9
NA
2.7
1.0
107,1
3,4
24,0
-1.4
-10.8
1,2
5,9
19.1
11.6
NA
5.9
1.9
1.14
1.89
2.62
1.55
2.18
1.81
Percent, EOP. . . .
1.76
1.90
1.89
1.90
1.80
1.80
Million dollars...
-871
-616
-745
-187
-113
-127
-120
F'ercent
.do
do
do
6.69
8.06
6.12
5.72
6.44
9.05
6.58
6.35
6.38
9.06
6.65
6.33
5.36
8.75
6.27
5,93
3.86
7.60
5,82
5.25
3.77
7.54
5.84
5.23
3,32
7.62
5.71
5.17
2.70
NA
10.3
9.8
NA
NA
-2.5
-2.4
NA
4.7
-8.8
-1.8
NA
NA
-7.3
-4.0
-9,2
1.85
-49.2
31,5
NA
-6.0
-2.7
1.7
-5.5
-14.0
9.4
5.6
5.5
NA
4.1
11.8
20.1
98
85
33
113
112
110
40.8
-40.6
14
-0.01
0.10
39
NA
NA
14
-7
-134
-558
-0.45
0,46
0.14
0,04
0,20
-1.02
-0,31
-0.38
-0.40
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Bank Reserves:
93 Free reserves (inverted ) 2 ©
Money Market Interest Rates:
117. Municipal bond vields2 (u>
3.78
7,76
5.75
5.37
0.08
-0.13
-0.06
-74
93
-1.50
-1.15
-0,45
-0,68
114
116
115
117
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Con.
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
1969
1970
3dQ
1970
4th Q
1970
IstQ
1971
Percent change
March
1971
Feb.
1971
April
1971
Feb.
to
March
1971
March
to
April
1971
3(1 Q
to
4th Q
1970
NA
4th Q
to
IstQ
1971
1
&
B, CYCLICAL INDICATOR$--Con.
66. Money ond Credit-Con.
LAGGING /WO/CATORS
Outstanding Debt:
Bit.dol,, EOF...
66, Consumer Installment debt9
*72. Com. and industrial loam; outstanding s . , , . . . do
96.2
83.2
99.0
83.4
99.4
86*0
99.0
83.4
Interest Rates on Business, Loans and Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus.
loans a<§), . . Percent
do
118. Mortgage yields, residential 2<g)
8.21
8.29
8.48
9.03
8.50
9.06
8.07
8.76
99.7
83.6
99.2
83.4
NA
NA
NA
1.7
1.6
0.7
0.2
66
72
NA
NA
67
118
-1.6
0.0
500
-0.9
4.7
502
99.7
83.6
83,0
0,5
0.2
-0.7
-0.4
-3.0
7.32
7.37
NA
0.05
-0.43
-0.30
-2.6
1.3
-5,5
42.5
3.4
-7*2
NA
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
01. Foreign Trade
500. Merchandise trade balance2
, ! Ann. rate, oil, do 1..
502 Exports excluding niti''ary aid .........
506. Export orders, durable (foods except motor
vehicles.,,
do
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery — 1957-59=100-...
512. General imports
Ann. rate, bi !. dol. .
(Jg
1.3
37.3
14,7
254
2.8
3.3
1.7
42.7
43.4
43.0
17.2
17.2
P.68
40.1
41.3
253
18.5
233
45.0
18.0
223
36.0
39.9
-7.01
-3.85
-9.82
-2.40
-2,25 -12.31
-7.26 -13.30 -22.02
43.2
2.9
45.8
44.3
13.1
17.7
221
217
42.6
42.8
NA
NA
45.1
2.3
1.8
0.5
NA
NA
5.4
7.6
-13.1
3.0
-2.7
-4,3
4.6
306
S08
512
02. U.S. Bolor ce af Payments
520, Liquidity balance basin2.
fi')9
flffi/Mil oottlomnntc KTMC*
,.,
do
do .....
2.70
-6.04
-8.72
520
522
•-6.3
4.8
600
0.15 - •10.06
D3. Federal Government Activities
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national
income and predict accounts z
do
SOI. Federal receipts, national income and
product accounts
do
602. Federal expenditures, national income
and product account;;
..... do
264. National defense purchases
do
616. Defense Dept. obligations, total
do
621. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement . , ,
do .....
647. New orders, defense products industries, , ,
do .....
do
648. New orders, defense products
625. Military contract awards in U.S
. .... do
9.3
-11,5
-11.8
-18,1
-13.3
200.6
194.8
194.9
191.7
200.8
191.3
206.3
206 .7
209.9
214.2
78.8
81.1
21.0
47.2
23.1
35.4
76.6
79.5
20.1
47.2
23.4
33.4
75,8
78.2
18.8
49.2
27.7
30.4
74.6
82.4
22.4
48.8
24.8
37.6
109,8
106.5
116,3
110.4
117.0
110.8
118,6
111.0
83.7
76.6
76.2
72*4
73.2
1.53
1.58
1.57
1.61
1.55
3.15
2.96
2.66
2.90
2.93
3.02
120.8
115.3
113.8
112.2
104.6
105,1
O.O60
O.073
0.076
0.074
0.070
0,127
103,2
NA
103.8
NA
104.7
NA
104.3
NA
105.8
2.91
2.89
2.91
2.87
2.93
91.05
5.0
90.11
4.9
90.27
4.9
89.52
4.8
91.19
4.9
..*
...
...
,. .
•,,
-1.6
1.5
74.0
83.1
23.5
45.3
24.4
34.1
83.1
26.1
43.4
28.3
31.4
81.5
17.6
44.6
19.0
40.8
119.5
112.5
119.4
112.8
119.8
113.0
1.55
1.54
-1.6
NA
NA
45.1
18.2
NA
-1.9
-32.6
2.8
-32,9
29.9
NA
NA
1,1
-4.2
NA
5.4
19.1
-0.8
-10.5
23.7
4,7
601
2.0
602
264
616
621
647
646
625
-0.8
0.8
4.9
-7.2
-1.6
-9,3
D4. Price Movements
781. Consumer prices, all items ®
1967-100
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities ® . . , . ..... do
120.2
113.3
0.3
0,2
0.3
0.3
1.4
0.2
O.B
1.4
781
750
0.8
850
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturinga. . Percent
851. Ratio, inventories tc sales, manufacturing
and trade
. . . Ratio
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs,'
do
durable goods industries
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
1957-59=100....
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
personal incone
Ratio
855. Ratio, nonagricultural
job openings
unfilled to person1-; unemployed
-..
do
858. Output per man-hour, total private n on farm. . 1967-100
856. Real average hourly earnings, production
workers, manufacturing
1967 dollars ....
859, Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers.
.
do
857. Vacancy rate In total rental housing 2qS) . . Percent
-3.3
NA
NA
-0.6
2.82
NA
-6.6
102,6
101.9
-2.4
NA
2,93
2.94
91.06
91.49
NA
NA
NA
NA
-0.7
NA
2.5
1.4
-3.7
1,0
851
352
-1.4
-6,8
853
-2.6
-5.4
854
NA
-0.4
NA
1.4
855
85S
2,95
0.3
0.3
-U4
2.1
856
92.05
0.5
0.6
-0.8
-0.1
1.9
0.1
859
857
NOTE: Series are seasonally
adjusted except for those indicated by®, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. *Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. NA ^ not available,
a ^ anticipated.
EG'3 - end of period.
1
In many caiscs, data shewn here are rounded to fewer digits or are in different units than those shown in the tables in part IX. VVharo available, annual
flguroG are those published by the source agencies or they are rounded from published figures; otherwise they (and the quarterly figures fox* monthly »erioc)
are ? average o o:r totals of the data as shown in part II.
-Differences rather than percent changeo are shown for this seriey.
^Index for tho latest month excludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113, for which data are not yet available.
*J Inverted series. Sinee thlo series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
8
Chart Al
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
215. Per capita GNP in current dollars, Q (am, rate, tnous. do!,)
217. Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars,
Q (arm. rate, thous. do!.)
105©
51
52
S3
S4
Si
Current data for these series are shown on page 65.
BUI
MAY 1971
56
57
58
SO
61
62
63
64
Si
Section A (NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Q Chart_A2]
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feij.J
I
P..
T
220. Nation Income, current tolas, Q (ann. rate, bit. dot.)
222. Personal income, current rtoltars, Q
[ann rate, bit. dot.)
214. Disposable personal income, current dollars, Q
(arm. rate, bH dol.)
225. Disposable personal income, 1958 dollars,
i
Q [ann. rate, W. dol.)
226. ftr capita disposable personal income, current doftars,
Q (ann. rate, thorn, dol
capita disposable personal income,
SI
S2
93
S4
SS
56
§7
§8
59
SCI 61
62
63
64
65
06
6?
68
69
J©
71
Current data lor those series are shown on page 65,
10
MAY 1971
KCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Annual rate,failliondollars |
Persona! consumption, expenditures230. Total, current dollars, 0
231. Total, 19&8 dollars, 0
232. Durable goods, total, current dollars, Q
233. Durable goods, total excluding automobiles
torrent
234. Automobiles, current dollars, Q
195©
Si
52
53
§4
55
9®
57
58
00
61
S3
64
@S
SS
67
71
Current data for these series are shown on pag« 66.
ItCII
MAY 1971
11
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
c
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
(My)
p
(Aug.)
(Mas?) (Feb.)
P. _,J..
(My) (Apr.)
i
P_
T
1601
m
Annual rate, biion doBars Icurrent) |
141
130-
120J
6ms private domestic Investment
lie ^
241, Homesfctetrttort fixed investment, total, Q
242, Nomsktefitial stiuctures, Q
243. Producers' durabfe equipment, Q
-1 40
D
244. Residential structures, Q
245. Change In business inventories, Q
S31
Si
S3
55
5S
S7
SS
59
6©
Si
62
S3
64
§8
66
S7
68
iS
JQ
71 1372
Current data for tWsc series ore shown on page 66.
12
MAY 1971
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
FOREIGN TRADE
(AMI.)
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(fey) (Fife.)
Animal rate, billion dollars (current)
250. Net exports of goods and services, Q
252, Exports of goods and services, Q
1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 67,
BCII
MAY 1971
13
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A6^
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
{May} (Feb.)
T
(July) («pr.)
P
T
Annual rate, bilfan dollars (current]
government purchases of goods and services*
260. Federal, State, and local governments, Q
262. Federal Government, Q
264. National defense, Q
266. State and local governments, 0
1950
id
92
S3
54
55
96
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
<S9
70
71 19'/1
Current data for those series are shown on page 67.
14
MAY 1971
KCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES
(July) (Apr.)
(May) (Feb.)
J
Annual rate, billion dollars current]
270. Final sales, durable goods, Q
271'Change in business inventories, durable goods, Q
274. Final sales, nondurable goods, Q
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods, Q
53
54
55
§6
57
58
§0
80
61
62
63
©4
Current data for these series are shown on page 67,
ItCII
MAY 1971
15
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart AS] NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
(Inly)
fc)
(July) (Apr.)
IV ...I
T
Annual rate, billon dollars (current)
280. Compensation of employees, Q
282. Proprietors' incomt, Q
284. Rental income of persons, Q
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment, Q
288. Net interest, Q
1950
SI
!52
53
BS
56
§7
58
§9
60
61
62
64
65
67
68
iS
JO
71
Current data for these so Met are shown on pages 67 and 68.
16
MAY 1971
KCII
Section A
NATIONAL INCOME AS^D PRODUCT
SAVING
(Arty) (Apr.)
F T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
[ AmmaJ rate, billion dollars (current)
290. Gross saving (private and government), Q
292. Personal saving, u
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment, Q
296. Capital consumption allowances, Q
298. Government surplus or deficit, Q
L
SI
§2
S3
§4
SS
56 .57
61
62
63
64
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.
MAY 1971
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Qchart Bl J EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Leading Indicators
duly) (Apr.)
{July) (An*)
P
T
JL
Marginal Employment Adjustments
P
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
T
"
T
4241-
40
38 J
! Average weekly overtime tews, production w « f w , manufacturing (hours)
1J
4. Nonagricuttuf^ placements, all Matties (thousands
100-
400 -
300 J
6
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)
4
3-
*5. Average weeWy initial claims, State imemptoyment insurance (ttwusaoos-kiverted scale)
200-
XV.^^T
300350400 .
0
3. layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees-inverted scale]
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 19/2
Current data for those series are shown on page 69,
18
MAY 1971 KCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
V
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
49. Nofiagricurtural job openmgs unfilled (thousands)
•
'i
i)
Help-wanted advertising [index: 1957-59=100)
42. Persons engaged in nonagrieultural activities (miHtons)
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 6V and 70.
BCII
MAY 1971
19
Section B
Chart
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Bl 1 EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July)
(July} (Apr.)
P.
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P. ...T
Comprehensive Unemployment
r
43. Unemployment rate, total (percent-inverted scale)
45. Avaragt wwKty insured uflmptyyment rate (percent-inverted scale)
44 Wtnptoymefrt rats, married mates (percent-inverted scale}
\
a
Lagging Indicators
Long-Duration Unemployment
*44. Unetnptoymeil f^e, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percwrt-hwerted scale)
0-r
*t
Jfi
1950
5.1
53
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
6©
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for those series are shown on page 70.
20
MAY 1971
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P I
(Ma^) (Feb.)
P , I.
Comprehensive Production ]
IIOO-i
1000950150 «
*200.6NP In current dollars, Q(ann. rate, bil.dol.)
750-
*205.GNP in 1958 dollars,
0 (ann. rate, bii. dot.)
*47. Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)
*52. Personal income (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing
construction (ann. rate, bit. dot.]
1950
51
52
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
NOTE: For this economic process [i.e.. Production, Incoms, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
B€l»
MAY 1971
21
Section B I CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B2J
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales (bil. dot.)
i_
*54. Sales of retail stores [bil. dol.)
s
2220-!
-L^l
18- 1
1614 -
12-
1950 SI
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
NOTE: For this eeo.tomfe process IU,, Production, Income. Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging Indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for thosa series arc shown on page 71.
MAY 1971
BCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart 63
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(luly) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P. I
Formation of Business Enterprises
130120*
_,[
*12. Net business formation (index; 1967=100)
___
......i!
_
jTV
100-
90 =
13. New biisiness incorporations [thousands)
*6. New orders, durable goods industries (bit.
8. Construction contracts, total value (index: 1967=100
!. MCDniovineavt.-5-tennl'
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment (bil. dot.)
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
€4
65
€6
€7
68
70
71 1972
'This ts a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division,
Current data for these series are shown on peige 72.
ItCII
MAY 1971
23
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B3 I FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(May) (Feb.)
P I
New Investment Commitments - Con
11. New capital appropriation*, Manufacturing, Q (bil. dol.)1
24. New offers, machinery and equipment industries (bit. dol.)
Constructs contracts, wmmmm and Industrial [mil. sq. ft.
of ftoor ai^"iCU moving avg.^fcrmf
28. New privttt housing units started, total [aim. rate, millions; MCD moving avg.-5-term]
0
*2$f?iew building permits; private housing units (index: 1967=100]
no-
63
64
€5
66
6?
68
69
7Q
'This Is o copyrighted scries used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from the source, agency.
Current data for theso series are shown on pages 72 and 73,
24
MAY 1971
ltd*
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders/durable goods industries {bit, dot.)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bil. dol.]T
Lagging Indicators
Investment Expenditures
new plant and equipment, Q (ann. rate, bil. do),}
a
!. Machinery and equipment safes and business construction
expenditures (ann. rate, bit. dol.)
60-
S
' .
_(„ _l_l
1950
51
il
53
§4
55
56
57
58
59
6©
61
62
63
64
65
66
71 1972
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data tor these series are shown on page 73.
MAY 1971
25
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B4J
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Leading Indicators
WW (Ane.
P.. . T
(Into (ftp?.)
P .if
P
T
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
245. Change in business Inventories, 0 [am. rate, bit. dol.)
*31.^Chfi(t8jn b<wh
(annotate, bJJ. dot.; MOD moving avg.-5-term)
^
/i»
37. PurcftasfldjRirterjalSt percent ojf_cofi$ajrij6s reptf
20. Change in book yaiue, marKifacturers' inventories of materials and supplies
(am rate, Wt doi; MCD moving avg,-6-terml
-J
»B •
26. Buying policy, production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 80 days of longer
m
Si
SI
S3
S4
55
S7
S8
59
60
61
62
S3
§4
63
§6
§7
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series arc shown gn page 74.
26
-MAY
1971
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(/taz.)
(July) (Apr.)
P .JL
Inventory Investment and Purchasing - Con.
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries
25. Change in untied orders, durable goods industries
! (ML doL; MCD moVtag avg.-4-term)
Lagging Indicators
EL
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (fail, dot.)
B
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories, finished goods (bit. dol.]
52
53
54
SS
56
57
Si
SO
61
©2
©3
71
1972
NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
BCII
MAY 1971
27
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart B5J PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Leading Indicators
(July) (Apr.!
P
{May! (Feb.)
T
P..
T
*23. Industrial materials prtces (index: 1967=100)
140
120-
. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10)
V981GO-
*I6. Corporate profits after taxes, 0 (arm. rate, bit. dot.
403D-
1©<
22. Ratio, profits (afteftaxes)' tbTncome coating,
, all industries, Q (percent)
10 <
—
19«
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sates, manufacturing, 0 (cents)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index: 1957-59=100)
SI
5i>
S3
S4
iS
B6
57
58
5S
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data tor those nerlei are ihown en page 75.
28
MAY 1971
KCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(May) (Fife.)
P
T
(July} (Apr,)
P
T
_^2C*_
(tog.)
120~i
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices
~B10555. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities (index: .1967*10.01
I
i
Lagging Indicators
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of real corporate gross product, Q (dollars)
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1957-59=100}
§a
S3
54
55
56
§7
98
§9
60
61
62
S3
64
65
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
BCII
MAY 1971
29
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
Chart B6
MONEY AND CREDIT
Leading Indicators
(tely)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) (Feb.)
P . T
Flows of Money and Credit
ti a
•*§
85. Change in money supply (ami. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term) i K
'
11 ?\
i
ft.
33. Change in mortgage debt (am rate, bit. dot.)
*113. Change in consumer Installment debt (am rate, Ml. dol.)
0-
-e-•-:-l
+1E«
TS7T
112. Change in business (cans (arm. rate, ML dot;
*2Q =
/ i J i il
- -
+10+B,i| .-:
-ii=^J
ill
S2
Si
S4
55
56
57
58
Si
61
02
64
6S 66
67
i8
Si
Current da to far these series ore shown on page 76.
30
MAY 1971
KCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(I*) (Apr.)
(May) (Fein.)
110. Total private borrowing, u (ami. rate, bil, dol.)
14. Liabilities of business failures (mil. dol,-toverterf scale
MOD moving avg.-6-temi)
3!), Delinquency fate, 30 days and over, total installment loans
(percent-inverted scale)
•54
Si
§7
58
§9
61
62
63
64
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.
MAY 1971
31
Section B
[ Chart
B6 ]
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(Aug.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
93. Free restrm (bil. dol-'mverted scale)
7-
e--
116. Corporate bond yields (percent)
117. Municipal bond yields [percent)
4-
1950
SI
52
93
54
59
56
57
S8
59
(SO 61
63
63
64
69
66
67
68
69
70
71
1972
Current datu for these series are shown on page 77.
32
MAY 1971
ItCIt
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Section B
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July} (Apr.)
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
—T
Outstanding Debt
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting targe commercial banks (bit.
rates on short-term
118. Mortgage yields. residential (percent]
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.
ItCII
MAY 1971
33
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
[Chart
B7J COMPOSITE INDEXES
Chart B7
Mr) (Aug
P.
(July} (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
T
P . T
Index: 1967=100
.
™ ••••--*
_ . _ . . . . , , _ . ^ flfjfj) _
= '•*itJIK *"
140-
•^s^y
7
-
IT
120^
110-
t^S
810. Twfllv* leading ki^catofs, reverse trend adjusted'
6,^7,19,23,29,31,113)
820. Five coiocident indicators, estimated aggregate
economic activity (series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56]
830. Six lagging indicators (series 44, 61, 62, 67, 71, 72)
1950 51
92
53
B4
55
56
57
58
59
(50 61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
1972
Current dotn for these scries ore shpwn on page 7fl. Numbers entered on the chart Indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) In months from reference turning dates.
1
Reverse trend adjusted Index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident Indicators.
34
MAY 1971
BCI»
Section B
CYCUCAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.
(July)
P
(July) (Apr.)
(Aug.)
T
P
(May) (Fete.)
T
P
T
110-
811. Twelve leaders, prior to trend adjustment
(series 1, 51 6,10,12,16,17,19,j23, 29, 31,113)
100 =
110-
813, Marginal employment adjustments (series 1, 2, 3, 5]
814. Capital investment commitments series 6,10,12, 29)
815. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 23, 25, 31, 37)
120110100 =
819. Profitability (series 16,17,19)
so80-
70 =
120-
817. Sensitive financial flows (series 33, 85,112,113)
110-
1
•— 180•-J
1990 Si
52
53
54
58
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
iOJ
1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
MAY 1971
BCII
35
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Selected Indicators by Timing
Chart B8 I NBER SHORT LIST
Leading Indicators
(July)
P
(Aug.)
T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
*1. Average wopcweeK, production workers, manufacturing {hours)
*5» Average weekly Initial claims, State uf^toymem insurance (thousands-inverted scale)
!
A
•12,1 Net business fonwtfcn (index: 1967=100)
*6, New orders, durable goods industries (bit. dot.)
*10. Contracts and orders, pfant and eqwpmtfit (bil. dol.)
*29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1967-100}
1950
51
S2
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 197 ;>
Current data for those scries aro shown on pages 69, 72, and 73.
36
MAY 1971
ItCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
(iuly} (Apr.)
(Aug.)
P
(May) (Fib,)
T
P
T
in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
ann. rate, bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-5-term)
+20 «,
I I
*23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1967=100)
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43-10)
*16. Eotporate profits after, taxes, Q (ana rate, ML dol.)
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost manufacturing (index: 1957-59=100)
*113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1950
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on pages 7A, 75, and 76.
KCII
MAY 1971
37
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Chart B8 I
NBER SHORT LIST^Con.
Selected Indicators by Timing
Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Apr.)
(«au ffeto.)
P
..T
T
1)100 »*
*200. GNP in current dollars, Q (arm. rate, Ml. tol.)
*47, Industrial production (index: 1957-59=100)
*S4, Sales of retail stores {bil. doL)
*41. Empioyees on nonagricuttura) payrolls {millions)
*43 Unemolovment rate, total Imwrpnt-inuprtpd
Sa
§3
S4
8S
i6
i?
Si
SS
i§
€4
62
i3
§4
iS
66
6?
i8
60
70
71
Current data for those series aro shown an $ages 70 and 71.
38
MAY 1971 KCII
Section B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.
Lagging Indicators
(Inly)
(Jyly) (Apr.)
P I
(Aug.)
(May) (Feb.)
P T
*44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted state)
*61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Q (ann. rate, bit. do).]
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. dot,)
*62. labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index; 1957-59-100)
1950
51
5i
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
§4
65
66
Current data for these series are shown on pages 70, 73, 74, 75, and 77.
ItCil
MAY 1971
39
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
(July) (ftpr.)
p
T
(Feb.)
80'
El
80
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, all industries, Q
70
60-
(a) Actual expenditures
(ann. rate, bit. dol.)
50-
40*
30-
(b) Second anticipations as
percent of actual (percent)
T
1 L?T
1
6
1
?<?
0 <J>
6
Ll
J
1_ _
I?
^
A
O
o
0
105-
_
6
Q
„<?
Ad
i
-.?
J
i
9nl 1
c
M
i
i 1 1
0
M o
1
100-
6
QR -
110*
(c) First anticipations as
percent of actual {percent)
p
, -
, ,
([ll
_ljlte¥ .. ,., ,,..u
„ „
^
_
T U Li ? ? ?
i
,,rV
1
o.
l
l ll
?
- ' »]• "1U1J
6
5H
SO
61
63
63
o
64
Jo99ll??
n.?ji?l
^
105-
100-
o
65
qs -
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
1973
Current data for thoso series ore shown on page 79.
40
MAY 1971
ItCII
Section C
Chart Cl
AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.
(July) (Ajjr.)
P
T
May) (Feb.)
;3
T
410. Manufacturers' sales, total value, 0 (ML dol.)
412. Manufacturers' inventories, total
book value, Q.DJJL dpi.)
414. Condition of manufacturers' inventories:
percent considered high less percent
considered tow, 0 (percent]
416. Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity:
percent considered inadequate (ess percent
consKjaredjixcessive, J (percent) ^
_
Current derta for these series are shown on page; 79.
BCII
MAY 1971
41
Section C
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
Chart Cl I AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
F
T
T
420. foment income of twtisebolds compared to income a year ago, Q
(IS© -
|a| Percent of fiousehokts reporting no change in family income (percent)
(b) Pirceflt of households reporting higher family income (percent]
[c] Percwrt of households reporting tower family income (percent)
-v.%
4I!5. Mean probtolKty of substantial changes in income of households, Q
.+v "
(a) Mean probabity of increase in family income (percent)
:\
(b) Increase toss decrease (percent)
/
- ^=
A ,'N
"^v-r-^ **'*
\
-':-
(c) Mean^robab)% of decrease in family income (percent)
430. Number of new cars purchased by households, Q
,,
lm,
S^^.,.-^ ~,*.-r. =,. ,. ,^
—
,±
.,-_
-
(d) Anticipations as percent of actual data (percent)
.. ., ._...>. ,05..^
Tf
„ .....IM^Il--
II
IKhj
,
-
•-.. . =— -
1
1
103-
J
S^
435, kittex of consumer sentimem; Q (1st Q 1966=100)
ii
Si
§9
61
62
63
64
i5
66
67
7©
71
72
Current data for the S3 series ore shown on page 79.
42
MAY 1971
KCII
Section C
AMD INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal quarter)
D440. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q spat]1
0442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)'
.*.
.
..-••• jfi^l. •-..
\
0444. Net sates, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)'
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
Si
59
SO
SI
81
64
65
66
67
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced wfthout permission from Dun & Brgdstreet, Inc.
BCII
MAY 1971
43
Section C
Chart C2 J] DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P
I
(May) (Feb.)
P
I
Diffusion indexes; percent rising
(plotted at terminal quarter)
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-0 span)1
0460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing |4*Q span)1
0464. Sellng prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span)1
-X,
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span]'
Current data for the*a socles ore shown on page 800
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without permission from Dun & Brodstreet, Inc.
44
MAY 1971
IICII
Section C
Chart C2
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
(May) (Feb.)
P
1
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal quarter!
661. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (1-Q span)
(a) Actual expenditures
[a] Actual expenditures
D480. Freight carloadings [4-Q span)
480. Change in freight carloadings (4-Q span)
(millions of cars]
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
BCII MAY
1971
45
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart DT 1 FOREIGN TRADE
(Ml)
(ApLj
(May) (Feb.)
P
I
I
Merchandise trade balance {ML dot; MCD moving avg.-6-term) J
502. Exports, except military aid (W. (W.; MCD moving avg.-8-temt)
506. Export Qfttefs. durabtes except motof vehictes
dot.; MCD moving avg.-6»tenn)
508. Export enters, ronelectricaf machitmy
(Nwtex: 1957-59=100; MCD mwfog avg.-4-term]
512 General imports (Ml. dol.; MCD moving avg<~4-term)
1950 SI
52
53
S5
56
57
58
59
§0
61
62
63
§4
65
66
67
69
70
71 1972
Current dotu for these series are shown on page 82.
46
MAY
X971
Section D
Chart D2
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
U.S. Balance of Payments, Q
balance Jiasis
US. offioafresMve
fct hpA) labilities to a« fo«%nsfs)
522. Official settlements basis
in U S official reserve assets, and change
In Kquht bbitte phs certam nocrtquid Kattfttte
Annual rate, billion dollars
Excess of receipts (inflow)
ij^V.1 Excess of payments (outflow)
525. Net capital movements, liquidity balance basis1
(outflow (-) left scale)
520. Liquidity balance
527. Net capital movements,
official settlements basis1
— 12
4-4 =
250. Balance on goods and services
SI
52
§3
54
SS
56
§J
58
59
6©
61
62
63
64
®S
66
67
Current data for these series are shown on page 83, Annual totals are used prior to 1960 except for series 520.
*The 1970 and 1971 figures for series 520, 522, 525, and 527 include allocation of Special Drawing Rights - $217 million and $180 million, respectively.
* Includes unilateral transfers and errors and omissions.
KM)
MAY 1971
47
Section D
Chart D2 I BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.
Major Components, Except Military Grants
of GJ>od$ and Services - Con.
530. Liquid liabilities to afl foreigners, outstanding at end of period
532. Liquid and certain nonfkjutd iabities to
foreign official agencies, outstanding at end of period
534. U.S. official reserve assets-reserve position at end of period
HDB©
§1
if
S3
34
i§
ii
W
SS
BD
i©
Current dota for these series are shown on page 63. End of year figures are used prior to 1960
48
MAY 1971
Section D
©TIHlEi CCiV WI
Chart D2 I BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Annual rate, billion dollars
Goods and Services Movements,
Except Transfers Under Military Grants
Excess of receipts
Excess of payments
44e
Goods and services-
250. Balance on goods and services
Merchandise, adjusted536. Exports
InvestrtientlrtcomeV military sales
and expenditures, and other services
5iii@
§31
§g
11
§4
if
i©
^
i®
iU
©
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Annual totals are used prior to I960.
KCII MAY 1971
49
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Chart D2 J BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Annual rate, billion dollars
Investment !(icome, Military Sales
and Expenditures, and Other Services
E/22 Excess of receipts (inflow)
[O Excess of payments (outflow)
Investment income*
542, Income on U.S. investments abroad
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.
Travel545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
\_
*—.-,
^777^7///^^^^^/^/A
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.
MHrtary sates and expenditures 547. U.S. military expenditures abroad
546i. Military sales to foreigners
Transportation and other services-
iSSO
g.t
S2
S3
S4
Si
§6
§7
iS
i§
if
§4
ii
70
71 1972
Current data for these series are shown on page 84. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
50
MAY 1971
ItCII
Section D
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Annual rate, billion dollars
Capital Movements Plus Government
Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
rJ^/3 Excess of receipts (Inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
Direct investments-
560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
Securities investments565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net
Si . 52
S3
54
55
56
5^
§§
59
i©
61
62
Cue rent data for these series are shown on page 84. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.
!!€!» MAY 1971
51
Section D
[ Chart
Chart D3
D3_j FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
1
Receipts aijd Expenditures
Federal surplus or deficit, national incwne ami product accounts, Q (arm. rate, bit. do!.)
601. F
o
nttiona! income and pfoduct accounts, Q lam, rate, It dpi)
D
8QZ Eederaj ejqmHttim national incorne 'and product accounts, Q (am, rate, bit dol.)
SI
!I2
S3
S4
SS
96
S7
60
@1
§2
§3
64
6S
6i
6?
70
71
Currant data for these series are shown o* page 85.
52
MAY 1971
BCR
Section D
Chart D3
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.
264. National defense purchases, Q (arm. rate, bit. del.)
616. Defense Department obligations, total [bit. do).; MCO moving avg.-6-term)
621. Defense Department obligations, procurement
(bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
647. New orders, defense products industries
(bil. dol.; MCD, moving avg.-6-term)
[bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
MAY 1971
53
Section 0
Chart D4 I
KEY INDICATORS
PRICE MOVEMENTS
(lis'll
(Aug.)
f»
T
BS
84
(JcW (Apr.)
9
SB
S©
B7
1
Pay) (rob.)
P
1
1972
Current data for theie series are shown on page 86.
54
MAY 1971
BCII
Section D
Chart D4
iH
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.
SI
S3
54
SS
6©
61
it
Current data for these series are shown on page 86.
ltd* MAY 1971
55
Chart El I /ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Gross National Product in 1958 dollars, Q
(ann. rate, bit dot,)
206. Potential GNP
205. Actual GNP
207. Gap
Current data for theso tsriei are •hown on paga $7,
'Trend line of 3.5 percent per year (Intersectingactual line (n middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and 4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to 1st quarter 197J.
56
MAY 1971
ItCII
Section E
LChart
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing, Q (percent)
it Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods industries
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to consumer goods
[index: 1957-59=100)
Current data for these series are shown on pag3 88.
KCII MAY 1971
57
Section E
Chart E2
ANALYTICAL
1 ANALYTICAL RATIOS—Corn,
(J!*|
P
(flesg.)
I
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income, Q
855. Ratio, nonatfricuttufa! Job openings unfiHed to number of persons unemployed
858. Output per mart-hour, total private nonfarm, Q (index: 1967=100)
856. Real average hourly earnings, production workers,
manufacturing (1967 dollars)
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings, rtonagricuftural
production or ^supervisory wortters (1967 ttoHars]
857. Vacancy rate if) total rental housing, Q (percent)
m
83
Si
S4
9S
Si
§7
70
71
Current data for iftosu series are shown on page 88.
58
MAY 1971
Section
Chart E3
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
01. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing-21 industries (9-mo. span— , 1-mo. span----)
D6, New orders, durable goods industries-SB industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)
D11. Newly approved capital appropriations-17 industries (3-Q span***, 1-Q
D34. Proms, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profits-about 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-Q span]
019. Stock prices, 500 common stocks-77 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)
D
023. Industrial materials prtces-13 industrial materials (9-mo. span — , 1-mo. span-.-]
A
0
05, Initial claims, State unemployment insurance-47 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—]
11
it
S3
01
$1
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pac;es 59 and 90.
ItCII
MAY 1971
59
Section E
[" Chart
E3J DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators
m
I?.
(Aug.)
I
Percent rising
041. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls-30 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo, span—)
D47. Industrial pfottuction-24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. sjwn-—]
058, Wholesale prices, manufactured goods-22 industries (6-mo, span—, 1-mo. span—)
054. Sales of retail stores-23 types of stores (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—]
Current data for these car las aro shown pn page 9T.
60
MAY 1971
Sectioh E
RATES OF CHANGE
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
Percent change, annual rate200. fc) GNP in current dollars (1-Q span]
205. (c) GNP in constant dollars (1-Q span)
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators (series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56]
1-mo. span (b)
3-mo. span fc]
-Hi-
48. Man-hours in nonagriculttiral establishments
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (seas, adj.]
781. Index of consumer prices, aH items (seas, adj.)
SS
Si
m
61
§2
63
64
65
66
To locate basic data for these rates of chance, consult 'Index—Series Finding Guide,* pp. 113 and 114
BCD
MAY 1971
61
DM
Fn.
£
Section
LtoJ
F
Chart Fl 1 CONSUMER PRICES
Current data (or thcsti series are shown on page 98.
Digitized62
for FRASER
MAY 1971
KCII
Section F
Chart F2
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
h
IK"?
Current data for these series are shown on page 99.
IP MAY 1971
63
Section F
Chart
F3
STOCK PRICES
Stock prices19. United States
Current data for these ]«rl<is are shown on page 100.
64
MAY 1971
ItCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter
200. Current dollars
a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
205. Constant (1958) dollars
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
a. Total
210. Implicit price deflator
b. Difference c. Percent
change
at annual
(Ann. rate, rate
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
a. Total
b. Difference
(Index:
1958=100)
(Index:
1958-100)
c. Percent
change
at annual
rate
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
834-. 9
858.1
875.8
891-4
+19-0
+23.2
+17.7
+15.6
+9.6
+11.6
+8.5
+7.4
693.5
705.4
712.6
717.5
+11.9
+7.2
+4-9
+5.9
+7.1
+4.2
+2.8
120.4
121.6
122.9
124-2
+1.0
+1.2
+1.3
+1.3
+3.5
+4-3
+4.2
+4.5
907.6
923.7
942.6
951.7
+16.2
+16.1
+18.9
+9.1
+7.4
+7.3
+8.4
+3.9
722.1
726.1
730.9
729.2
+4-6
+4.0
+4-8
-1.7
+2.6
+2.2
4&.7
-0.9
125.7
127.2
129-0
130.5
+1.5
+1.5
+1.8
+1.5
+4.7
+5.0
+5.6
+4.9
959.5
971.1
985.5
989.9
+7.8
+11.6
+14.4
+4.4
+3.3
+4.9
+6.1
+1.8
723.8
72^.9
727.4
720.3
-5.4
+1.1
+2.5
-7.1
-2.9
+0.6
+1.4
-3.9
132.6
134.0
135.5
137.4
+2.1
+1.4
+1.5
+1.9
+6.4
+4.3
+4.6
.+5.9
rl,020.7
r+30,8
r+13.1
r732.7
r+12.4
r+7.1
r!39.3
r+1.9
+9.9
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter..,
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT»Con.
Year
and
quarter
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
215. Per capita 217. Per capita 220. National
GNP, current
GNP, constant
income in curdollars
(1958) dollars
.rent dollars
(Ann. rate,
collars)
(Ann, rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
222. Personal
income in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bii.dol.)
Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bii.dol.)
225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bii.dol.)
226. Per capita, 227. Per capita,
current dollars
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate, dol.)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
4,177
4,283
4,359
4,425
3,469
3,521
3,547
3,562
687.2
706.1
722.2
735. a
664.0
680.9
697.6
712.5
574-9
588.4
595.6
606.0
492.3
498.6
501.2
504.0
2,876
2,937
2,964
3,008
2,462
2,439
2,495
2,502
4,496
4,565
4,646
4,676
3,577
3,589
3,602
3,583
749.3
764.0
779.5
785.2
725.8
741.1
758.1
770.5
612.0
623.0
640.6
650.6
504-7
507.5
515.9
517.8
3,032
3,079
3,156
3,197
2,500
2,508
2,542
2,544
4,703
4,748
4,805
4,812
3,548
3,544
3,546
•3,501
791.5
797.4
806.6
804-8
782.3
801.3
807.2
813.3
665.3
683.6
693.0
697.2
522.9
532.0
534.2
530.0
3,261
3,342
3,378
3,389
2,563
2,601
2,604
2,576
r4,949
r3,552
P833.2
P831.5
r715.1
r538.3
r3,467
r2,6lO
1969
First quarter..,
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The"r" indicates revised; "p",-preliminary;
"e" t estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9, 10, and 61,
ItCII
MAY 1971
65
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Year
and
quarter
230,, Total in
currant dollars
231, Total in
constant (1958)
dollars
232. Durable
goods,total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil, dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil, dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
236, Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
234. Automobiles
233. Durable
goods, total except in current dollars
autos, in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
237. Services in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
519.7
529.1
534.3
550.8
445.0
448.4
457.7
458.1
79.9
82.6
86.7
86.9
51.5
53.4
54.7
55.6
28.4
29.2
32.0
31.3
225.6
227.6
232.6
234.8
214.2
218.9
224.5
229.0
561.8
573.3
582.1
592.6
463.3
467.1
468.7
471.7
69.1
90.6
89.5
90.8
57,6
59.1
57.9
58.3
31-5
31.5
31.6
32.5
239.2
244.0
248.1
252.0
233.5
23&.7
244.5
249-8
603,1
6H-4
622.1
627.0
474.0
478*1
479.6
476.6
89.1
91-9
91.2
85.3
60.2
61.5
61.3
61.3
28.9
30.4
29.9
24.0
258.8
262.6
265.8
271.5
255.2
259.9
265.1
270.2
r646.4
r486.6
r97.5
r63.3
r34.2
r272.8
r276.1
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
241. Nonresidential
fixed investment
240. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
242. Nonresidential
structures
(Ann* rate,
biL dol.)
243. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann, rate,
bil. dol.)
244. Residential
structures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
245. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol,)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
119.8
127.3
126.5
132.6
88.3
86.4
88.3
91.6
29.8
28.9
29.4
30.3
58.5
57.5
59.0
61.3
28.8
30.6
29.9
31.7
+2,6
+10,4
+8.2
+9.3
136.0
139.3
H3.8
140.2
95.7
97.5
101.5
102.6
32.6
32.3
35.2
35.1
63.1
65.2
66.3
67.5
33.0
33.9
31.0
30.4
+7.4
+7.9
+11.3
+7.2
133.2
134.3
138.3
137.1
102.6
102.8
103.6
101.3
35.7
35.3
35.0
34.7
66.9
67.5
68.6
66.6
29.1
28.4
29.2
32.2
+1,6
+3.X
+5.5
+3.6
r!42.4
105.1
r36.1
r69.0
r35.8
14-1.4
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter ,
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter,
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The"r" indicates revised; "p"( preliminary;
"o"
anH "NA",
"MA" not
nnfr iwiilohln
"e", pcHmatoH*
estimated; "a"
"a", sntirinatpH*
anticipated; and
available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12.
66
MAY 1971
ItCII
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
H
Q FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
250. Net exports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
252. Exports
of goods and
services
253. Imports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate
bil. dol.)
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
262. Federal
260. Total
(Ann. rate,
oil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
264. National
defense
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
266. State and
local
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1968
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1969
+1.8
+3.4
+3.4
+1-4
47.7
50.7
53.2
50.9
45.9
47.3
49.8
49.5
193-6
198.3
202.1
206.7
96.4
98.9
100.7
101.9
76.3
77.8
78.6
79.2
97.2
99-4
101.4
104.7
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1970
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
+1.3
+1.3
+2.6
+2.6
47.8
57.2
58.3
58.8
46.5
55.9
55.6
56.2
208.5
209-9
214.1
216.3
100.9
99.8
102.5
102.1
78.6
77.9
79.8
78.8
107.5
110.1
111.6
114.2
+3.5
+4-1
+4.2
+2.6
61.1
62.8
62.8
62.0
57.6
58.7
58.6
59.3
219.6
218.4
221.0
223.2
102.3
99.7
98.6
98.2
79.3
76.8
75.8
74.6
117.4
118.7
122.4
125.0
r64.6
61.3
r228.7
r98.4
r74*0
r!30.2
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
r+3.3
INCOME COMPONENTS
E NATIONAL
IN CURRENT DOLLARS
PH FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter
Durable goods
270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1968
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter.
1969
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1970
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter .....
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter.
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
280. Compensation 282. Proprietors'
of employees
income
Nondurable goods
271. Change in
274. Final sales
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
284. Rental income
of persons
275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol,)
(Ann, rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
165.2
168.0
173-1
175.3
+2.5
+7.1
+5.8
+7.2
246.4
249.8
255-9
258.0
+0.1
+3.2
+2.4
+2.1
495.3
507.6
520.9
532.5
62.9
63.8
64.4
65.2
21.3
21.3
21.3
21.3
180.5
182.7
184.8
187.4
+5.6
+6.7
+7.9
+5.3
260.4
266.1
270.1
274.3
+1.8
+1.2
+3.5
+1.9
544-9
557.5
572.2
582.1
66.0
66.7
67.5
67.2
21.6
22.0
22.1
22.3
185.5
188.5
188.3
178.8
-0.3
-1.9
+5.2
-3.7
280.0
283.3
286.0
293.3
+1.9
+5.0
+0.3
+7.2
592.2
596.4
603.8
606.7
67.6
67.8
67.8
67.4
22.5
22.6
22.7
23.0
r!93.3
r+2.7
r294-2
r-1.4
r625.2
67.0
23.1
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; M p", preliminary;
*e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 14, 15, and 16=
MAY 1971
67
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
INCOME COMPONENTS
W CURRENT OOLLARS-Con.
E NATIONAL
Year
and
quarter
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1968
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter. . .
1969
First quarter
S©cond quarter. . . . ,
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1970
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter. .....
Fourth quarter
Qj SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
288. Net interest
290. Gross saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
292. Personal
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
294. Undistributed 296. Capital consumption
corporate profits
plus inventory valu- allowances
ation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
298. Government
surplus or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
81.3
86.0
87.4
87.1
26.4
27.3
28.2
29.1
121.6
129.6
129.8
133-5
40.8
44.5
36.5
39.6
19.3
22.6
23.3
21.3
72.3
73.7
74.6
75.5
-10.7
-11.2
-4.5
-2.9
87.1
87.4
86.8
82.0
29.7
30.4
31.0
31.7
138.5
142.5
049.1
044.2
34.3
33.3
42.0
41.1
19.6
19.2
19.7
15.4
77.0
78.2
79.4
80.7
+7.7
+11.8
+S.O
+7.1
76.7
77.5
78. 4
73.3
32.4
33.1
33.8
34.5
139.3
138.5
140.6
134.3
44.8
51.5
52.7
51.8
13.6
14.3
14.1
13.3
82.1
83.6
85.0
86.5
-1.2
-10.9
-11. 2
-17.3
p82.7
35.2
P134.0
r49.8
pl8.0
88.4
P-13.2
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. SeriesM numbers are for
identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; p" f preliminary;
w
"e t estimated; V, ant'cipated; and "NArt, not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16 and 17.
68
MAY 1971
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
M EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LEADING INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Marginal Employment Adjustments
*1. Average
workweek of
production workers, manufacturing1
(Hours)
4. Nonagricul- 2, Accession
21. Average
weekly overtime tural placements rate, manufachours, production all industries1
turing1
workers, manufacturing1
(Per 100
• (Hours)
(Thous.)
employees)
Job Vacancies
3. Layoff rate,
*5. Average
weekly initial
manufacturing
claims for unemployment insurance, State programs2
(Per 100
employees)
(Thous.)
49. Nonagrtcul- 46. Index of
tural job
help-wanted advertising in
openings un1
filled
newspapers
(Thous.)
(1967 = 100)
1969
448
459
439
4.9
4.7
4.8
E>179
4.0.9
3.8
3.5
3.7
1.1
1.1
l.l
372
375
365
120
123
124
April
May
June
40.8
40.7
40.7
3.7
3.7
3-7
447
434
456
4.9
4.8
4.9
181
182
197
l.l
1.1
377
387
383
126
125
122
July
August
September
40.6
40.6
40.7
3-6
3.6
3.6
438
425
421
4.7
4-5
4.8
195
196
200
H> 1-1
1.2
358
346
346
122
120
0)126
October
November
December
40.5
40.5
40.7
3.5
3.5
3.5
405
401
376
4.7
4-4
4.6
202
211
210
1.3
1.3
1.4
343
338
319
122
119
117
January
February
March
40.3
39.9
40.2
3.3
3.2
3.2
387
361
357
4.2
4-3
3.9
232
250
263
1.5
1.7
1.8
3H
306
292
109
109
103
April
May
June . ,
40.0
39.8
39.8
3.0
2.9
3.1
349
338
329
4.0
4.2
4.0
326
313
303
2.0
1.9
1.9
272
257
250
100
97
94
July
August
September
40.1
39.8
39.3
3.0
3.0
2.8
4.1
4-1
3-8
265
288
338
1.6
1.8
1.9
October
November
December
39.4
39.6
39-6
2.8
2.7
3.6
3.7
3.8
341
338
297
2.2
2.0
1.8
78
80
80
3.7
282
278
291
1.7
1.6
pl.7
75
77
78
p274
(NA)
78
January
February
March
40.6
40.1
186
185
1.2
1.2
1970
2.7
(KA)
(NA)
92
91
87
1971
January
February
March
39.8
39.5
39.9
r2.8
r3.9
P3.9
April
May
June
P39.8
p2.8
(NA)
2.8
2.9
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by [R); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
E>Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk!*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 18, 19, and 36.
^-Series that reached their high values prior to 1969 are: Series 1, 41.6 reached in Mar. 1966; Series 21, 4.1 in May 1966;
2
Series 4, 586 in May 1962; Series 2, 5.2 in I\fer. 1966: Series 49, 437 in July 1966.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is
included in figures published by source agency.
ItCII MAY 1971
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
M EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.
Minor Economic
Process
Comprehensive Employment
48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
Year
and
month
LAGGING
INDICATORS
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.
TIMING CLASS ....
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)
*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)
Long-Duration
Unemployment
Comprehensive Unemployment
42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
*43. Unemploy*
ment rate, total
(Thous.)
(Percent)
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1
(Percent)
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
(Percent)
1969
January
February
March
137.23
137,21
138.41
69,352
69,605
69,827
73,271
73,682
73,870
3.4
D3.3
3.4
2.1
April
May
June
138.60
139.22
139.26
69,992
70,172
70,347
73,89^
73,67^
74,110
3.5
3.4
3-4
2.0
[H>2.0
July
August
September
139.50
139.75
139.76
70,400
70,497
70,567
74,365
74,562
74,696
October
November
December
139-90
139.97
[H)140.2S
70,836
70,808
70,842
January
February
March
139.44
139.70
HO. 21
April
May
June
*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Percent)
1.4
1.4
IRH.4
0,4
0.4
O0.4
2.1
1.5
1.5
1.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
3.5
3.5
3.8
2.2
2.1
2.2
1.6
1.5
1.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
75,000
75,088
75,298
3-7
3.5
3.6
2.2
2.3
2.3
1.6
1.5
1.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
70,992
71,135
D 71, 242
B) 75, 504
75,300
75,436
3.9
4.2
4.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
1.9
2.0
2.2
0.5
0.6
0.7
139*74
139.05
138.39
71,149
70,839
70,629
75,317
75,031
74,763
4.7
4.9
4.8
3.1
3.6
3.7
2.3
2.5
2.5
0.7
0.7
0.8
July
August
September
138.70
13S.24
138.09
70,587
70,414
70,531
75,066
75,073
75,043
5.0
5.1
5.4
3.5
3.7
4.4
2.7
2.8
2.9
0.9
0.9
October
November
December
137.04
136.97
137.32
70,182
70,085
70,303
75,398
75,197
75*055
5.5
5.9
6.2
4.4
4.4
3.9
3.0
3.2
3.4
0.9
1.1
1.3
137.55
rl36.76
r!37 . 84
70,652
r70,590
r70,662
75,451
75,208
75,079
6.0
5.8
6.0
3.6
3.7
3,8
3.3
3 2
3.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
til 37 97
r>70 71Q
75 140
6.1
4.0
3.1
1.3
2.1
2.0
1970
1971
January
„
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
o.a
,,
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values ar©
indicated by (fi); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14,39, 40,43,44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
|H>- Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and"NA", not available,
Graphs of ihese series are shown on pages 19, 20, 38, and 39.
a
Data exi3lu.de Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
70
MAY 1971
IICII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
£U PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, A ND TRADE
TIMING CLASS ....
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Comprehensive Production
Comprehensive Income
*2(IO. Gross na- *2Q5. Gross na- *47. Index of
industrial protional product
tional product
duction
in current dolin 1958 dollars
lars
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
(1957-59=100)
bil. dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade
53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*56. Manufacturing and trade
sales
57, Final sales
(series 200
minus series
*54. Sales of
retail stores
245)
(Mil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1969
722.1
. *.
169.1
170.1
171.4
720.2
725.2
732.0
187.2
187.6
190.9
100,192
101,418
101,776
900.2
923.7
726.1
171.7
172.5
173.7
736.3
740.9
746.2
191.6
192.6
194-7
102,704
103,349
104,1^0
915.9
July
August
September
942.6
730.9
ED 174. 6
174-3
173-9
752.7
758.5
763.1
195.7
197.1
198.0
103,668
105,295
106,078
931.2
«..
29,090
29,346
29,259
October
November
December . . .
951-7
.• .
729.2
...
173.1
171.4
171.1
766.7
770.6
774.3
198.8
198.8
200.6
106,593
105,566
105,021
944-. 5
.. .
29,620
29,471
29,419
January
February
March
723.8
170.4
170.5
171.1
777.8
959.5
104,932
106,164
105,487
957,9
787.6
199.1
198.9
200.7
29,570
29,980
29,801
April
May
June
971.1
72^.. 9
170.2
169.0
168.8
806.0
799.7
798.2
199.2
197.7
198.0
105,087
106,847
107,612.
968.1
30,536
30,502
30,518
July
August
September
985.5
727.4
169-2
168.8
165.8
803.3
806.4
198.9
198.8
198.3
108,393
108,175
108,074
980.0
30,729
30,781
30,885
October
November
December
162.3
161.5
164.4
809.9
989.9
• ••
812.6
817.5
193.7
193.6
199.1
106,224
104,917
r!07,019
986.3
165.6
rl65.2
rl65.5
827.4
330.4
r836.8
199.8
199.1
r20l,l
rl08,996
(H) rl,019.3
pl66.0
[H>p841.3
[pT>p201.7
January
February
March
907.6
>
April
May
June
...
...
28,955
29,257
28,881
29,409
29,386
29,371
1970
720.3
• ••
781.5
811.9
30,534
30,208
r 30, 481
1971
• ••
10)1-1,020.7
January
February
March
April
May
June
[Fj) 1-732.7
r 110, 748
(H) pill, 886
(NA)
r31,154
r31,6ll
fu\T)32.l83
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
. .
NOTE: Series are seasonally ad ; usted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by (H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
EDSeries numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 21, 22, and 38.
ItCII
MAY 1971
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
HI FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
LEADING INDICATORS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
F rm
°
Year
and
month
i
E!,ter£feSS
"12. Index of net
business formation
(1967-100)
New Investment Commitments
13. Number of new *6. Value of
business incorpora- manufacturers'
new orders,
tions
durable goods
industries
8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value 1
(Bil. dol.)
(1967-100)
(Number)
*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equip*
ment
(Bil. dol.)
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations1
(Bil, dol.)
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, producers' capital
goods industries
(Bil. dol,)
Revised3
1969
a 61
117.2
[R> 117.2
116.6
21,364
22,105
22,083
2Q Q/
30 20
2Q Q6
132
132
117
April
May
June
117.0
116.6
116.$
23,262
23,118
23,439
30 86
30 60
29 56
118
136
120
8 Pi
8 in
July
August
September
116.9
116.2
114.8
23,366
22^,871
22,594
31.06
31.46
116
p) 31.99
139
112
7 77
7 61
8 37
October
November
December
116.1
114-3
114.9
IR> 24,263
23,125
22,404
31.44
31.05
30.21
126
115
141
7.89
7.88
114.5
114*2
110*7
22,397
23,152
21,383
29.05
29.37
28,06
131
137
132
8 85
8 58
r7 62
April
May
June
109.7
107.8
107.0
21,939
22,267
22,192
28.45
29.98
30.03
130
110
120
7.57
7.64
July
August
September
106.1
105.2
105.5
22,106
22,055
22,372
31.40
30.54
29.86
116
135
118
7.87
7.77
8.02
6 62
October
November
December
105.9
105.6
104*5
21,625
22,382
22,085
28.50
29.01
30.60
115
130
132
7.29
8.18
7,64
r6.00
105.S
105.6
109.2
22,338
20,923
23,220
January
February
March
7 &A
1 6A
3)T
6 • JJL
6 .»7//4
6£m
6
• 53
*0
H£
7 .05
6
fu\ <7**7/;
[n/ f*(Q
(^0
A VA
7 /.I
6 tn
6 0Q
7 no
7 7^
6 35
6 74
7.69
6 6/
8 38
1970
January
February
March
,
6 e/
6 63
6 00
6 58
£ Q&
8 17
A 3n
A 2A
6 51
6.41
6.30
6.76
6.55
€.87
6 55
1971
January
February
March
April
May
June
(M)
(NA)
31.40
31.87
r31.77
117
126
141
P31.12
0)161
6 • QQ
y /
8 35
[fi) 9.02
p§.62
Ei\
^ ^9
rS 32
p677
A/
r&
n
PO'44
T>8
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series ana seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by [M>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 3 9 , 4 0 , 4 3 , 4 4 , 4 5 , and 93), current low values are indicated by
|H) •
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p* f preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA f l , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 23, 24, and 36.
1
Th;l@ 10 a copyrighted
used by permission; it my not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. ¥. Dodge Divieion (series 8), or The Conference Board (series 11).
e
Sos "Nev Features and Changes for This Isisrue," page iii.
72FRASER
Digitized for
MAY 1971
ltd)
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
ffl
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
New Investment Commitments-Con.
Backlog of Investment Commitments
Investment Expenditures
9. Construction
contiacts, commercial and industrial
buildings1
(Mil. sq.ft. floor
space)
1969
January
February
March
FIXEC CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
28. New private
housing units
started, total
(Ann. rate, thous.)
*29. Index of new
private housing
units authorized by
local building
permits
(1967=100)
96. Manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
E> 94-43
69.93
63.50
1*705
1,639
1,588
129.2
127.3
124. 1
84-25
84.60
84.91
April
May
June
65.82
85.60
80.37
1,505
1,533
1,507
123.9
116.7
118.1
85*91
86.70
85.97
July
August
73.70
71.96
68.90
1,429
1,376
1,481
113.1
116.0
109-. 2
iH>86.82
86.74
86.81
23.48
October .. .
November
December
1970
January
February
March
79-96
64.31
86.89
1,390
1,280
1,402
106.2
106.1
103.2
86.56
86.60
86.21
...
D23.85
88.86
80.95
67.11
1,059
1,306
1,392
92.0
98.1
95.1
85.32
84.42
83.52
April
May
June
64.00
58.19
54.47
1,224
1,242
1,393
103.2
114.7
112.6
July
August
September
70.45
61.04
60.16
1,603
1,425
1,509
October
November
December
51.71
54.00
54.69
January
February
March
April
May
June
September
*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment, total
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing1
69. Machinery and
equipment sales
and business construction expenditures
(Ann. rate, bil. do!. (Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
72.52
89.62
90.88
90.19
73.94
89.12
90.29
91.75
77.84
92.11
94-22
E>97.98
21.54
22.83
77.84
*.*
94-81
93.31
92.06
.. .
23.53
78.22
...
93.61
96.37
94-30
82.34
81.82
81.22
...
22.85
80.22
...
91.83
96.78
94-15
114-7
120.8
121.6
81.30
80.56
79.56
...
22.30
H>81.88
...
96.67
96.67
95.68
1,583
1,693
E> 2,054
133.5
130.3
E). 155.0
78.69
78.88
79.46
...
r21.57
78.63
93.27
93.83
93.87
:54-37
50.04
65.44
1,725
rl,754
rl,950
143.3
137.0
r!42.6
80.33
80.84
r80.53
a80.55
97.53
r97.84
P97.89
i>4.82
pl,903
pUl.8
p79.92
...
a82.54
(M)
1971
.. *
p20.96
July
August
September
October
November
December .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by (fi); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
G>Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA ?! , not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 24, 25, 36, and 39.
•"•This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division (series 9), or The Conference Board (series 97).
ItCII MAY 1971
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
^^H
TIMING CLASS ....
LEADING INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing
Inventories
Minor Economic
Process
245. Change in *31. Change in
business
book value of
inventories 1 mfg, and trade
inventories,
total 1
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
bil.dol.)
Year
and
month
1969
January . .
February
March
37. Purchased
materials, com
panies reporting higher
inventories1
(Percent
reporting)
20. Change in
book value of
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.1
and supplies
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
26. Production
materials, companies reportin
commitments 6C
days or longer®1
(Percent
reporting)
32, Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliveries® 1
(Percent
reporting)
25. Change in
unfilled orders
durable goods
industries1
(Bil. dol.)
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
(Bil.dol.)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods,
book value
(Bil.dol.)
+7.4
+6.3
+15.7
+13.6
43
47
49
-fO.3
+0.1
+3.2
57
58
63
62
61
61
+0 58
+0 36
+0.31
161 23
16 A 6A
155.67
29 A2
29.67
+7.9
+12.3
+10.6
+11.6
49
51
49
+1.3
+1.6
-1.0
65
64
66
68
69
70
+1.00
+0.79
-0.74
156.70
157.58
158,55
29.98
30.31
30.45
+13.0
+13.3
50
51
50
0.0
0.0
+1.5
59
63
65
66
68
66
+0.85
-0.08
+0.07
159.63
160.73
161.84
30.66
30.90
31.06
+7.2
+17.9
+5.2
+13.8
54
57
48
+3.3
+1.0
+2.9
63
65
65
65
62
64
-0.24
+0.04
-0.39
163.33
163.76
164.92
31.24
31.52
31.64
+1.6
-2.6
+11.3
+6.1
50
50
51
-4.3
+5.5
+1.4
61
62
56
56
58
50
-0.88
-0.90
-0.90
164.70
165.64
166.15
32.48
32.15
32.33
April
May
June
+3.X
+10.9
-3.9
+7.7
45
40
46
-1.4
-1.8
-0.2
60
57
55
52
72
69
-1.18
-0.51
-0.60
167.06
166.73
167.38
32.97
32.95
33.09
July
August. . .
September
+15.1
+8.7
+8.1
46
+5.5
44
47
-0.3
+1.9
+0.6
52
50
52
50
45
45
+0.08
-0.74
-1.00
168.64
169.36
170.04
33.36
33.56
33.70
+3.3
+6.3
+3.2
46
47
44
+3.6
+3.6
+2.4
54
54
52
38
36
36
-0 87
+0 19
+0.58
170 16
q/ 1 A
V, 3&
34.32
•+3.5
r+3.9
P+6.3
46
49
51
-0.7
-0.9
-1.4
52
59
56
38
44
46
+0.87
+0.51
r-0.32
171.43
r!71.76
tLj\pi72.28
(NA)
57
55
(NA)
57
55
52
p-0.61
(NA)
April ....
May
June
„..
July
August
September
October
November
December
1970
January . .
February
March
+11.3
,
October
November
December
1971
January.. .. ,
February
March
+3.6
• +•
r+1.4
April
May
June
+13.2
2Q JJL
170 87
171. IA
1A 60
34.64
fu\3/.79
(NA)
July ...
August
September
October
November
December „
. ..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by (R); for series that move counter to movements in generaj business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
[H)* Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
precededf t by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA f not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26, 27, 37, and 39.
^Series d^hat reached their high values prior to 1969 are: Series 245, +19.9 reached in 4th quarter 1966; Series 31, +20.B In
June 1966; Series 37, 63 in Nov. 1964; Series 20, +5.9 in Aug. 1966; Series 26, 75 in Oct. 1966; Series 32, 36 in Mar. 1966;
Series 25, +1.90 in Mar. 1966.
74
MAY 1971
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
0 PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
LEADING INDICATORS
SS IPrPces" Stock Prices
*23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices (g)1
Profits and Profit Margins
*19. Index of *16. Corpostock prices, rate profits
500 common after taxes
stocks© 1
(Ann. rate,
(1967-100)
(1941-43-10
bil. dol.)
January
February
March
....
103.0
105.9
106.5
102.04
101.46
99.30
49.5
April .
May
June
108.9
110.0
111.2
101.26
104.62
July
August
...
September . .
in. 5
October
November
December
115.1
115.1
116.7
95.52
January .
February
March
118.9
119.5
118.7
90.31
87.16
April
May
June
118.2
117.5
1L4-8
July
August
September
October
November
December .
22. Ratio of
profits to
income originating, corporate, all
indus. *
(Percent)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
LAGGING INDICATORS
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Unit Labor Costs
15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all mfg
corp. i
*17. Ratio,
price to unit
labor cost
index, mfg.1
55. Index of
wholesale
prices, indus
commod. ®
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, mfd.
goods ®
(Cents)
(1957-59=100
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per unit
of gross prod.
(1958 dol.),
nonfin. corp.
(Dollars)
*62. Index of
labor cost
per unit of
output, mfg.
(1957-59-100)
1969
112.0
|H>49.7
98.8
99.9
99.6
104.3
104.8
105.4
104.3
104.7
99-4
99.7
99.8
105.5
4-9
rl05.6
r!05.6
10.7
5.0
10.5
99. 14
0.745
112.6
111 8
112.7
105.3
105.7
106.1
0.755
113 1
113.1
113.4
0.767
113.7
114.7
115.2
105.2
47.9
9.9
4.8
99.8
99.0
98.9
105.7
106.1
106.5
106.4
106.5
106.7
9.7
4.5
98.5
98.0
97.1
107.1
107.4
107.8
r!07.2
47.1
107.7
108.1
0.783
116.4
117.3
118.7
44.6
9.0
4.1
97.6
98.2
98.0
108.3
108.7
108.9
108.8
109.1
109.3
0.799
119.0
118.5
119.0
85.95
76.06
75-59
43.9
9.0
4-3
98.5
97.9
97.9
109.3
109.7
109.8
109.6
109.7
110.0
0.802
118.7
119.6
119.9
112.4
111 , 2
11 0.5
75.72
77.92
82.58
45-4
9.1
4.0
98.3
98.1
95.9
110.0
110.2
110.4
110.6
110.6
110.8
0*811
120.0
120.3
123.2
109.5
108.9
106.4
84.37
84.28
90.05
41.4
8.2
• ••
3.6
• ••
96.6
96.8
95.6
111.3
111.3
111.7
111.2
111.2
111.2
B> °-828
122.8
122.6
124.1
105.9
107.2
107.8
96.1
97.11
p/7.5
p9.0
112.2
112.5
112.8
111.8
112.4
112.7
pO.826
S>113.3
H) 113.0
.116.9
94.71
94-18
94-51
96.21
91.11
1970
... .
88.65
1971
January
February
March
April
May
110..2
=108.6
93.49
99.60
'103.04
^.01.12
(NA)
r96.2
r.96.2
P96.6
r!24.1
rl24.6
ruyri25.o
P124.9
June
July
August
September
October .
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® - Current high values are
indicated by g); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
E>Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28, 29, 37, and 39.
^Series that reached their high values prior to 1969 are: Series 23, 123.0 reached in Mar. 1966; Series 19, 106.48 in Dec.
1968: Series 22, 13.9 in 1st quarter 1966; Series 15, 5-8 in 1st quarter 1966; Series 17, 105.2 in July 1966.
3
3
Aver age for May 4, 11, and 18.
Average for May 19, 20, and 21.
KCII
MAY 1971
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
H| MONEY AND CREDIT
'
TIMING CLASS ....
LEADING INDICATORS
Minor Economic
Process
Flows of Money and Credit
Year
and
month
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1969
January
February
March
-1.19
+2.09
April
May
June
33. Net change in
mortgage debt
held by fin. inst.
and life insurance companies
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
*113. Net change
in consumer
installment
debt1
(Ann. rate,
bil, dol.)
Credit Difficulties
112. Change in
business loans
(Ann. rate,
bil.doi.)
110. Total private borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
14. Current lia- 39. Delinquency
bilities of bus- rate, 30 days
ness failures® and over, total
installment
loans1
(Mil. dol.)
+20.70
+23.81
+19.75
+7.69
+9-58
+7.75
ffl>+14.88
+8.88
+7.45
97,888
40.30
+4.26
+7.27
+4-32
75.03
89.99
84.12
+1.49
+0.60
40.89
+5.40
+3.58
+4.76
+22.04
+19.52
+22.22
+9.12
+10.15
+9.54
+14.78
+10.90
+11.59
103,028
318.76
92.60
91.92
July
August
September
-7.14
-9-57
-1.21
+4.15
-2.95
+1.18
+17.21
+21,48
+20.75
+7.46
+7.20
+8.38
+13.36
+8.47
+12.14
89,148
112 . 73
62.83
73.70
October
November
December
-0.60
+O.JO
+2.11
+2.37
+1.77
40.59
+19.10
+19.14
+14.36
+8.03
+7.44
+4.98
+14.87
+5.90
+8.70
85,656
116.44
127.14
96.85
+0.90
-1.51
+11.76
+9.43
-4.09
+12.32
H7.32
r+14- 53
+12,20
+4.56
+5.02
+2.38
-0.30
+10.61
+2.92
r7S,312
137.28
139.39
120.02
April
May
June
+14-63
+7.96
46.74
+9.87
+5.18
+2.29
+13.72
+18.06
+21.23
+3.55
+4.98
+5.29
+3.53
+5.60
+2.15
r87,732
131.90
147.89
170.50
July
August
September
+20.40
+17.77
+17.79
+5.73
+6.84
+5.67
+22.78
+20.58
+23-41
+5.32
+2.78
+4.31
+2.10
+7.40
0.00
r81,356
251.92
169.59
232.94
+10.85
+9.10
+17.79
+1.13
+2.82
+6.18
+23.78
+20.23
H> +28.09
-0.98
-3.62
+0.25
-19.07
-8,02
-5.15
r89,212
144*77
119.84
121.72
f!3.75
[H>. +21.60
r +19.12
+1.12
|H> 4-13.97
r+11.60
+21.71
+22.92
(NA)
+1.04
+1.22
+5.94
-4.81
+5.90
r+1.91
[R)pl07,ll6
p+10.31
8
p+9.85
s
+4-34
(NA)
p-7.32
2
+7.00
,.....,,.
(Percent)
1.55
1.61
1.65
1.70
] .7?
1.76
1970
January
February
March
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
„..
,
April
May
June
+7. 16
168 80
1 £Q QQ
1.80
1.76
1.82
1.89
1.92
1 .90
1.80
224.65
153.80
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series; are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [H>; for series that move counter to movements in generaj business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
(H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book, Series
preceded by an asterisk {*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p" r preliminary; V r estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA\ not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30, 31, and 37.
1
Series that reached their high valuer prior to 1969 are: Series 113, +11.36 in Oct. 1968; Series 14, 58.65 in Nov. 1968;
Series 39, 1.50 in Oct. 1968.
3
Average for weelcs; ended May 5 and 12.
Digitized for 76
FRASER
MAY 1971 ltd)
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS
Q| MONEY AND CREDIT»Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
....
Bank
Reserves
Minor Economic
Process
93. Free
reserves©
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt
Money Market Interest Rates
114. Treasury 116. Corporate 115. Treasury 117. Municipa
bond yields® bond yields® bond yields®
bill rate©
Year
and
month
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
Interest Rates on Business
66. Consumer *72.Commercia *67. Bank
and industrial
installment
rates on shortdebt
loans outstand* term business
ing, weekly re- loans, 35
porting large com- cities ®
mercial banks
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Percent)
118. Mortgage
yields, residential ©
(Percent)
1969
-480
-596
-701
6.18
6.16
6.08
7.29
7.33
7.76
5.74
5.86
6.05
4.85
4.98
5.26
88,729
89,527
90,173
73,450
74,190
74,811
7.32
7.99
8.05
-844
6.15
6.08
6.49
7.54
7.62
8.04
5.84
5.85
6.05
5.19
5.33
5.76
90,933
91,779
92,574
76,043
76,951
77,917
7.86
8.06
8.06
8.35
7.00
8.06
8.05
8.36
6.07
7.01
7.13
5.75
6.00
79,030
79,736
80,748
8.82
6.26
93,196
93,796
94,494
8.36
8.36
8.40
-992
-988
-829
7.04
7.19
7.72
8.46
8.94
9.22
6.27
6.52
6.81
6.09
6.30
6.82
95,163
95,783
96,198
81,987
82,479
83,204
8.83
8.48
8.48
8.62
January
February
March
-799
-819
-781
B>7.91
7.16
6.71
9.00
8.84
9.00
6.86
6.44
6.39
6.65
6.36
6.03
96,578
96,996
97,194
83,179
84,063
84,306
April
May
June
-704
-795
-701
6.4S
7.04
6.74
9.09
9.53
6.53
6.94
6.49
84,600
85,067
85,246
8.49
9.10
9.11
9.16
(H> -1,217
-682
-335
6.50
6.41
6.24
8.50
9.11
9.07
9-01
-208
-305
8.07
8.97
8.90
8.40
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
7.32
January
February
March
April
May
June
-1,102
-1,064
July
August
September .
-1,074
-946
-831
. .
October
November
December
6.02
6.32
(NA)
1970
July
.
August. . i
September
...
October
November
December
-49
6
6.96
97,490
97,905
98,346
9.09
9.08
9.00
6.57
6.75
6.63
6.53
6.20
6.25
98,789
99,021
99,380
85,421
B> 86,038
86,037
5-93
5.29
4.86
9.14
8.97
8.13
6.59
6.24
5.97
6.39
5.93
5.46
99,298
98,996
99,017
84,448
83,780
4-49
3.77
3-32
7.63
7.54
7.62
5.92
5.84
5.71
5.36
5.23
5.17
99,104
99,206
82,950
83,442
r83,601
[H>9.70
E> -99
E>7.00
(NA)
E)8.86
H>9.29
9.20
83, 51
1971
January
February
March
April
May
June
-91
-127
r-120
m-14
?+5i
3.78
3
4.03
7.76
2
8.24
3
5.75
5.97
3
5.37
5.92
H> 99, 701
(NA)
p82,991
83,574
7.37
4
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [fi); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14r 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H>. Series numbers are for identification onlyand do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 32, 33, and 39.
Uverage for weeks ended May 5, 12, and 19. Average for weeks ended May 7, 14, and 21. 3Average for weeks ended May 6, 13,
and 20. ^Average for weeks ended May 5 and 12.
IICII
MAY 1971
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing
Ql COMPOSITE INDEXES
Year
and
month
1989
January . .
February
March
810. Twelve
leaders, reversa trend ad
jjsted^series
1,5,8,10,12
16, 17, 19, 23,
29, 31, 113)
811. Twelve
leaders, prior
to trend adjust*
merit (same
components as
in series 810)
820. Five
coinciders, estimated aggregate economic
activity (series
41, 43, 47, 52,
56)
830. Six
laggers (series
44, 61, 62, 67,
71, 72)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
Leading Indicator Subgroups
813. Marginal
employment ad*
justments
(series 1,2, 3,
5)2
814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,
12, 29)
815. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 23, 25,
31, 37)s
(1967-100)
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
816. Profit- 817. Sensitive
ability (series financial flows
16, 17, 19)2 (series 33,8 85,
112, 113)
(1967-100)
(1967=100)
114.S
116.4
116.1
107.2
108.3
107.6
115.5
116.. 8
117.6
116.9
118.5
120.0
103.3
101.8
103.4
110.9
111.7
110.0
100.6
103.1
103.0
101.9
102,5
101.9
104.8
105.2
102.8
April ...
May
June
118.0
118.2
117.5
[H> 109.0
108.7
107.7
118.1
119.0
120.2
120.7
122.1
123.9
103.5
103.2
102,4
Rill. 7
110.0
10Q,8
104.6
104.5
103.0
102.2
103.1
101.8
105.6
July..
August
September
117.6
117.5
118.5
107.4
106.9
107.4
120.6
121.2
121.2
125.9
128.4
129.1
102.4
101.7
102.1
110.1
109.7
109.9
105.3
105.0
105.7
100.6
99.6
99.5
100.3
101.7
103.2
118.2
117.4
117.6
106.7
105.6
105.4
121.8
122.1
122.2
131.1
130,6
132.2
101.3
100.5
100.9
109.1
108.5
109-1
105.9
105.2
105.1
99.3
98.9
96.8
102.4
101.2
100.2
116.2
116.5
115.0
103.7
103.7
101.9
121.7
121.9
122.0
131.7
131.2
130.5
98.6
97.2
96.4
108.0
108,4
105.6
103.9
105.4
104.8
96.5
95.8
95.9
98.7
98.3
98*3
114-9
113.8
114.4
101.5
100.1
100.3
122.2
121.3
121.2
130.7
131.0
131.0
94.4
94.9
94.8
106.1
106.3
rio6.0
104.2
102.4
103.6
95.5
92.8
92.9
98.9
100.2
100.2
rll6.i
rl!5.5
rlU.5
rl01.4
100.4
r99-2
121.4
121.1
120.6
131.7
131*9
E> 132.3
97.0
95.5
93.0
r!06.5
r!06.2
r!06.3
104.2
102.4
102.3
93.5
94.1
93.0
101.3
100.4
100.6
rl!3.8
r98.3
r98.1
r99,7
118.8
117.9
119.1
130.8
128.9
128.9
92.2
93.0
94.5
r!06.0
106.7
riQ7.7
101.6
102.6
101.6
93.2
92.5
r94-0
94-9
94.5
99.3
121.1
rl21.8
rl22.3
r!29.2
rl30.1
rl30.8
95.2
r95.4
P95.5
r!08.5
rl08.8
rl09.9
101.9
102.4
r!02.4
r96.2
r9S.O
r98.7
97.2
rl01.2
plOJ.l
E>pl22.5
P130.9
(NA)
pO.09.8
p!03.8
plOO.2
(NA)
October . .
November
December
1970
January
February
March
...
.. .
April
May . .
June
July
August
September
October....
November
December
1971
January
February
March
....
114.1
..
rll6.3
. .,
rll8.5
rll9.9
rlOX 2
3
a
„
April
. ,
May
June
July
August
September. .. ....
naa.4
E> 124.1
rioa.,0
rl03.8
!04.9
103. a
105.1
October.
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [R>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
(H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of those series are shown on pages 34 and 35.
1
Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 loaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
^Series that reached their high values prior to 1969 are as follows: Series 813, 105.4 reached in Mar. 1966; Series 815, 109.3
in Mar. 1966; Series 816, 104,6 in Feb. 1966; Series 817, 106.9 in Dec. 1968.
3
Exclude0 sanies 12, 16, 31, and 113, for whieh data are not yet available.
78
MAY 1971
KCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter
410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value
61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment
a.. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dot.)
c. First
b. Second
anticipations as anticipations as
percent of actual percent of actual
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Bil.dol.)
412. Manufactur- 414. Condition
ers' inventories, of manufacturers'
total book value inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low
(Bil.dol.)
(Percent)
416. Adequacy 435. index of
of mfrs.' capac- consumer
sentiment
ity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive
(First quarter
(Percent)
1966^100)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
63.09
66.29
67.77
69.05
100.0
104.0
102.7
103.9
101.2
102.1
105.1
103.1
145.4
149.6
152.6
156.6
83.8
85.6
87.1
88.6
22
22
21
16
35
35
40
42
95.0
92.4
92.9
92.1
72.52
73.94
77.84
77.84
102.7
104.4
102.8
100.0
101.5
100.3
159.6
162.3
167.4
168.1
90.4
92.2
94-2
95.9
18
19
22
22
43
38
39
41
95.1
91.6
86.4
79.7
78.22
80.22
81.88
78.63
102.3
100.5
103.6
103.4
101.7
104.6
165.9
166.6
170.2
164.8
97.0
97.7
98.7
99.7
23
23
21
20
38
36
33
33
78.1
75.4
77.1
75.4
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
99.5
101.5
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
99.0
103.9
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
a!72.7
a!76.5
a80.55
a82.54
CNA)
a99.7
alOl.O
(NA)
78.2
AGGREGATE SERIES--Con.
Year
and
quarter
420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reporting-a. No change b. Higher
in income
income
(Percent)
(Percent)
c. Lower
income
(Percent)
425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households
a. Increase
in income
(Percent)
430. Household purchases of new cars
2-quarter moving average
a. Actual
b. Increase c. Decrease -(quarterly)
d. Anticipated
b.
Actual
c. Anticiless decrease in income
pated
as percent of
(Ann. rate, actual
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
mil. cars)
mil. cars)
mil. cars)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
52.9
53.0
50.8
50.7
36.4
35.9
37.3
37.4
10.0
10.5
10.8
11.1
19.3
18.3
18.4
16.7
13.8
12.5
11.9
11.2
5.5
5.8
6,5
5.5
8.1
8.4
8.1
7.7
7.9
8.3
8.2
7.9
7.8
7.6
7.9
8.3
99
92
96
105
52.7
45.6
46.2
48.3
35.4
41.3
39.9
37.3
11.3
12.4
13.0
13.6
16.5
18.1
18.6
17.6
11-3
12.0
13.0
11.6
5.2
6.1
5.6
6.0
7.1
7.1
7.7
6,3
7.4
7.1
7.4
7.0
8.0
7.9
7.5
7.8
108
111
101
111
50.3
49.8
35.0
35.1
14-2
14.5
20.1
19-9
18.2
16.7
13.8
12.9
10.9
9.4
6.3
7.0
7.3
7.3
7.1
6.7
7.7
8.0
7.6
115
17.2
19.9
10.5
12.4
6.7
7.5
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter..,
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
a
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40, 41 „ and 42.
MAY 1971
79
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter
D440. New orders, manufacturing :
Anticipated
Actual
D442. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade l
Anticipated
Actual
D446. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade1
D444. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade *
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
78
78
79
SO
80
83
$2
81
70
73
72
74
74
80
78
73
79
82
82
84
82
86
86
84
57
60
58
60
60
60
53
60
81
SO
76
72
82
85
83
80
70
74
68
66
78
79
77
76
80
84
78
76
86
88
86
83
59
60
58
58
60
60
60
59
66
64
60
55
76
71
74
74
61
56
55
56
70
66
70
66
70
66
64
62
74
73
78
76
54
54
51
50
56
56
54
68
76
78
85
63
71
74
80
70
78
80
36
48
(4-Q span)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter.,.
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
55
58
58
DIFFUSION INDEXES»Con.
Year
and
quarter
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade1
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
Selling prices
" 0460. Manufacturing
and trade1
Actual
Anticipated
D462, Manufacturingl
Actual
Anticipated
D464. Wholesale trade1
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
78
82
78
78
88
92
81
84
86
87
85
85
86
85
79
80
80
80
91
90
90
89
84
84
86
79
76
78
75
87
85
86
84
77
80
82
80
86
86
85
86
80
80
Si
80
76
76
75
85
80
82
82
86
SO
30
80
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
68
68
70
70
63
66
67
66
78
80
81
84
76
79
78
78
74
76
78
80
74
76
75
76
81
82
82
85
71
70
70
66
68
66
66
84
84
85
85
78
80
80
82
80
82
82
75
79
78
80
66
61
62
58
62
61
64
58
84
82
82
80
78
78
80
77
80
80
78
75
62
60
62
65
80
74
(4-Q span)
D466. Retail trade 1
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter •
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter..,
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ,.
Fourth quarter..
78
78
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of thes;e series are shown on pages 43 and 44.
1
Thie is a copyrighted scries used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dim & Bra&rtreot, Inc.
80
MAY 1971
ItCII
ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
IH DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
D61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries
c. First
anticipations
b. Second
anticipations
a. Actual
expenditures
(1-Q span)
(1-Q span)
D480. Freight carloadings ®
b. Anticipations
a. Actual
carloadings
(1-Q span)
480. Change in
freight carloadings®
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(Thous. of cars4-Q span)
1968
First quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter.
66.7
47.2
66.7
50.0
61.1
83.3
75.0
88.9
55.6
61.1
66.7
55.6
31.6
68.4
68.4
57.9
73.7
63.2
73.7
68.4
-16
+29
+52
-11
83.3
66.7
75.0
41.7
94.4
83.3
61.1
55.6
58.3
63.9
66.7
58.3
52.6
47.4
42.1
(NA)
78.9
89.5
84.2
84.2
-19
-12
-4
+14
77.8
47.2
58.3
19.4
69.4
61.1
25.0
44.4
38.9
55.6
66.7
50.0
73.7
47.4
73.7
(NA)
-6
-29
-68
(MA)
33.3
41.7
58.3
1969
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter. ...
1970
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Fourth quarter. . . .
-119
1971
First quarter. .....
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
-35
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 45»
ItCII
MAY 1971
81
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
M FOREIGN TRADE
500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)
Year
and
month
(Mil. dol.)
502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
(Mil. dol.)
506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles and parts
(1957-59=100)
(Mil. dol.)
1969
January
February
March
+159
-406
+206
2 161
2,266
3 188
April
May
June
+136
+11
+27
3 31 &
3 268
July
August
September
+108
+204
+262
October
November
December
1970
January
February
March
508. Index of export orders, 512,, General imports, total
nonelectrical machinery
(Mil. dol.)
83A
2/9
2
1,391
1,118
260
222
2,672
2 Q82
1 110
1 222
i 911
248
258
9&n
3 1 A3
3 26&
1 69
3 ,1,P4
3 182
1 216
3 366
1 23Q
3 3A1
1,317
276
251
°66
3 07/
3 163
3 Q7&
+150
+218
+202
3 3/9
3 3Q8
3 280
1 3/J
1.312
957
9//
3 1Q9
3 i&n
1,370
246
3 07 8
+183
+269
+158
3.406
3,547
3 376
1 17A
1,561
1 578
240
p//
3 221
3,278
961
3. PI 8
April
May
June
+146
+323
+465
3,409
3 661
3,730
1,493
263
3,263
1 175
1.3/2
^66
3 33$
270
3.P66
July....
August
September
+445
+246
+125
3 699
3,592
3,553
1 258
1.357
1,674
276
3 PI/
3.3/6
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
+188
+71
+166
3.689
3,499
3,570
1 38/
1,364
1,884
222
242
236
+49
+136
+245
3,735
3,690
3,815
1,518
r 1,472
pi , 505
232
r217
p221
3,6S6
3,^53
3,569
-215
3,543
(NA)
3 76ft
,
April
May .
June
3
17Q
(NA)
267
262
OOP
3,/gg
3
5PO
3,4aa
3,404
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available,
Graphs of these series are shown on page 46.
82
MAY 1971
ItCII
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Year
and
quarter
U.S. balance of payments
520. Liquidity balance basis
a. Including
allocations of
SDR
(Mil.dol.)
250. Balance on
goods and services, excluding
military grants
522. Official settlements basis
b. Excluding
allocations of
SDR
(Mil. dot.)
b. Excluding
allocations of
SDR
(Mil.dol.)
a. Including
allocations of
SDR
(Mil.dol.)
Net capital movements plus
unilateral transfers and errors
and omissions
525. Liquidity1
balance basis
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
530. Liquid
liabilities to all
foreigners3©
527. Official
settlements
basis2
(Mil.dol.)
, dol,)
1968
-244
+106
+145
+164
-61
+1,652
+408
-358
455
853
851
340
-699
-747
-706
-176
-516
+799
-698
32,432
32,514
33,493
33,6:4
-1,352
-3,SOI
-2,279
+420
+1,453
+1,315
-582
+514
331
262
665
692
-1,683
-4,063
-2,944
-272
+1,122
•+1,053
-•1,247
-178
34,930
39,045
42,655
41,900
846
1,039
-2,295
-2,274
,-1,600
P-1,348
-3,747
-2,819
-2,815
p-4,107
.42,972
•43,382
44,220
P43,271
VNA)
(NA)
(NA)
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter. Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
-1,449
-1,235
-600
-1,666
-1,452
-817
r-778
-2,901
-1,780
-1,815
r-3,325
-3,118
-1,997
-2,032
r-3,541
1,000
p-3,258
p-5,506
p-5,686
(NA)
p784
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
p-3,078
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
532. Liquid
and certain
npnliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies3®
(Mil. dol.)
534. U.S.
official
reserve 4
assets ©
Mil. dol.)
535. Allocations to the
U.S. of
Special
Drawing
Rights
(Mil.dol.)
Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
Merchandise, adjusted 5
Goods and services
252. Exports
(Mil. dol.)
253. Imports
(Mil.dol.)
536. Exports
537. Imports
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
Income on investment, military
transactions, other serv., total
540. Exports
(Mil.dol.)
541. Imports
(Mil.dol.)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
18,407
16,994
17,493
18,574
13,926
14,063
U,634
15,710
11,932
12,685
13,295
12,714
11,477
11,832
12,444
12,374
7,946
8,386
8,878
8,378
7,820
8,132
8,569
8,443
3,986
4,299
4,417
4,336
3,657
3,700
3,875
3,931
16,911
16,006
17,732
17,162
15,758
16,057
16,743
16,964
11,961
14,196
14,592
14,767
11,630
13,934
13,927
14,075
7,485
9,490
9,608
9,890
7,588
9,562
9,281
9,404
4,476
4,706
4,984
4,877
4,042
4,372
4,646
4,671
19,514
20,561
22,372
p24,504
17,350
16,328
15,527
217
217
217
216
15,364
15,798
15,969
pl5,831
14,518
14,759
14,969
p!5,047
rlO,582
r 10,6f93
rlO,467
r9,727
r9,S30
9,987
rlO,315
5,112
5,212
5,269
#,328
4,789
4,930
4,982
P4,736
(NA)
(NA)
180
179
179
179
(NA)
(NA)
pll,040
plO,750
(NA)
(NA)
1969
First quarter.,.
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available; SDR indicates Special Drawing Rights.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 47, 48, and 49.
1
2
Series -520 (including allocations of SDR beginning 1st quarter 1970) minus series 250.
Series 522 (including allocations
3
of SDR beginning 1st quarter 1970) minus series 250.
Amount outstanding at end of quarter.
^Reserve position at end of
5
quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts
(exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
1971
Federal Reserve Bank of St. MAY
Louis
83
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS«Cori.
Income on Investment, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)
Year
and
quarter
Income on Investments
&42. U.S. invest- 543. Foreign
investments in
nents abroad
the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
Military transactions
Travel
544. Receipts
545. Payments 546. Sales under 547. Military
expenditures
from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military conabroad
tracts
elers in the U.S. abroad
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
Transportation and other services
548. Receipts
549. Payments
from
for
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1,765
1,990
2,000
1,935
677
732
761
762
433
431
451
460
755
737
787
743
302
344
393
357
1,103
1,112
1,14?
1,173
1,486
1,534
1,573
1,584
1,122
1,119
1,180
1,253
2,089
2,150
2,286
2,3H
905
1,071
1,240
1,247
501
520
519
518
820
855
875
840
391
313
458
352
1,198
1,187
1,220
1,245
1,495
1,723
1,721
1,693
1,119
1,259
1,311
1,339
2,499
2,307
2,394
p2,417
1,343
1,320
1,287
pl,l60
560
576
589
P593
925
988
1,026
P977
256
430
339
P454
1,178
1,255
.1,210
pl,195
1,797
1,899
1,947
pi,864
1,343
1,367
1,459
pl,404
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter,.
(NA)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con,
Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers
Year
and
quarter
Direct investments
560. Foreign invest*
ments in the U.S.
(Mil.dol,)
Securities investments
561. U.S. investments
abroad
(Mil. dol.)
564. Foreign purchases 565. U.S. purchases
of foreign securities
of U.S. securities
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
570, Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
(Mil. dol.)
575, Banking and
other capital transactions, net
(Mil.dol,)
1968
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter .,
Fourth quarter..
1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ,.
Fourth quarter..
251
5
23
41
451
878
1,048
831
839
1,122
1,115
1,312
304
171
327
453
-962
-355
-762
-391
434
228
156
3X1
319
539
567
69
-860
-1,327
-1,356
-594
132
-64?
457
-520
246
164
152
270
902
1,015
276
1,388
365
396
963
459
103
216
1,411
1,434
711
PUO
297
381
697
828
133
-66
549
261
-1,252
-303
-940
p-1,106
-42
-283
249
P-745
(NA)
p641
P375
(NA)
(NA)
877
1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .
P99
1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p" f preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 50 and 51.
84
MAY 1971
ltd*
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
U3 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Year
and
month
600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (•}, national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
Defense Indicators
602. Federal
264. National
defense purexpenditures,
national income chases
and product
accounts
616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
647. New or648. New orders, defense ders, defense
products indus- products
tries
625. Military
prime, contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
+9*-5
197 '.2
187 1 7
7B.6
7,578
7,050
6,543
2,088
2,075
1,701
4.12
4.10
3.81
1.93
2.17
2.17
3,398
3,441
2,904
+13^4
202!$
189.1
77\9
6,520
6,319
6,LW.
1,638
1,528
1,550
3.84
3.89
3.07
1.95
1.83
1.39
2,825
3,070
2,744
July
August
September
-#'.3
200.8
192.* 5
79^3
6,906
6,472
6,394
1,447
1,476
1,752
4.18
4.01
3-45
2.45
1.61
1.44
3,001
October
November
December
-HS'.I
202.' 6
195.9
78!s
7,041
7,091
7,088
1,867
1,820
2,103
4.18
4-45
4.09
1.89
2.35
1.93
2,987
2,734
2,765
-ii?
195.9
197.7
79^3
7,045
6,516
6,519
1,807
1,523
1,669
3.65
4.02
3.98
1.90
1.74
1.58
2,855
2,623
2,904
April
May
June
-U.*2
196.'?
2l6! 9
76^8
6,643
6,118
6,505
1,559
1,486
1,771
3.42
4.08
3-51
1.38
1.89
1.85
2,545
2,896
July
August
September
-ii .'a
194-9
206 ,*7
75.*8
7,111
6,035
•6,407
1,825
1,332
1,542
4-77
4.06
3.48
3.07
1.85
2.00
2,782
October
November .
December
-is'.i
6,251
7,166
7,195
2,oa
1,459
3.95
4.08
4-18
2.12
2.02
2.05
3,464
2,746
3,181
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Bit, dot.)
(Bil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
1969
January
February
March
April
May
June
2,896
2,680
1970
January
February
March
191.7
209 .'9
74^6
2,105
2,591
2,717
2,113
1971
January
February
March
P-13.3
p200.8
April
May
June
r214-.2
r74.*0
2,508
7,055
6,928
6,793
2,171
1,470
3.99
.3.62
r3.72
2.17
2.36
rl.58
3,398
(NA)
(NA)
P3.76
pl.52
(NA)
2,239
2,619
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
BCII
MAY 1971
85
OTHER KEY INDICATORS
|jj PRICE MOVEMENTS
Consumer price indexes
Year
and
month
783. Commodities less foods
781. All items® 782. Food
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
Revised1
(1967=100)
Revised1
Wholesale price indexes
784. Services© 750. Alt commod- 58, Manufacities ®
tured goods®
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967=100)
751. Processed
foods and
feeds
(1967-400)
Revised1
752. Farm products
(1967-1UU)
Revised1
1989
January
February ,
March
106.7
107.1
108.0
105.9
105.9
106.5
105.6
106.2
107.1
108.8
109.4
110.3
104.3
104.7
105.3
104.3
104.7
105.2
103.6
103.9
104.7
105.3
104-8
106.1
April
Mav . .
June
108.7
109.0
109.7
107.1
107.7
108.8
107.3
107.6
108.0
111.2
HI. 7
112.2
105.5
106.3
106.7
105.3
105.7
106.1
105.8
107.4
107.9
106.3
109.5
110.0
July
August
September
110.2
110.7
111.2
109.3
109.8
110.5
108.3
108.5
108.8
112.8
113.5
114.3
106.8
106.9
107.1
106.4
106.5
106.7
107.9
108.3
108.1
108.6
1G9.9
109-1
October
November
December
1970
January
February
March..
111.6
112.2
112.9
110.4
111.9
113.0
109.3
109.6
110.0
114.7
115.3
116.1
107.4
108.1
108.5
r!07.2
107.7
108.1
109.2
109.S
110.6
110.3
133-0
1X3.1
113.3
113.9
1U. 5
113.5
114^3
114.4
110.3
110.5
110.7
117.1
118.0
119.3
109.3
109.7
109.9
108.8
109.1
109.3
111.7
112.0
112.4
112.9
113.5
113 -6
April
May
June
115.2
115.7
116.3
114.9
115 a
115.0
111.4
112.0
112.4
120.1
120.7
121.4
109.9
110.1
110.3
109.6
109.7
110.0
112.6
111.5
110.9
112.2
1C9.8
110.0
July
August
September
116.7
116.9
117.5
115.1
115.1
115-5
112.6
112.9
113.5
122.0
122.7
123.5
110.9
110.5
111.0
110.6
110 6
110.8
in. s
112.3
112.4
111.0
1C9.S
122.6
lisa
118.5
119.X
115.5
115.6
115.5
114. Q
114.5
115.3
124.1
124.9
125.6
111.0
110.9
111.0
111.2
111.2
111.2
112.2
112.5
111.6
110.2
108-5
108.2
119.2
119.4
119.0
115.5
116.1
117.2
115.5
115.4
115.6
126.3
126.6
126.6
111.8
112.8
113.0
111.8
112.4
112.7
111.5
113.2
114.3
109.0
113.4
112.0
120.2
118.2
115. S
126.8
113.3
113.0
114.3
113.6
... .
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
April . . .,
May
June. . .
July
August.
September
.
October
November
December . . . ,..
NOTE: Series ars seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of those series are shown on pages 54, and 55.
"New Fes,tur©s and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
86
MAY
1971
KCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
H ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
Year
and
quarter
207. Gap (potentialless actual)
Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars
206. Potential level 1
205. Actual value
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1968
First Quarter. . . •
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter.
Fourth Quarter. . .
1969
693.5
705.4
712.6
717.5
639.6
696.4
703.3
710.2
-3.9
-9.0
-9.3
-7.3
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter. ...
722.1
726.1
730.9
729 . 2
717.2
724.3
731.4
738.6
-4.9
-1.8
+0.5
+9.4
723.8
746.4
72/ Q
76A 3
727 4
720 3
762.3
+22.6
+29 4
+34*9
770.4
+50 1
778 6
•»4./e q
1970
First quarter
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter
Second quarter —
Third quarter. .....
Fourth quarter
•wrf-QO
rj
T(3<.* I
NOTE; Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series ^re indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p"t preliminary
tt
"e , estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series ore shown on page 56.
1
Based on a trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th
quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to the 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and
4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to 1st quarter 1971.
MAY 1971
87
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
PH
860. Ratio,
output to capacity, manufacturing
Year
and
month
(Percent)
1969
January. . , .
February
March
851. Ratio,
inventories
to sales, man*
ufacturing
and trade
(Ratio)
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to ship*
ments,manufacturers'
durablegoods
industries
853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer
goods
(Ratio)
(1957-59-100)
ANALYTICAL RATIOS
854. Ratio,
personal sav*
ing to disposable personal
income
(Ratio)
855. Ratio,
nonagricultural job open*
ings unfilled
to persons
unemployed
(Ratio)
858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm
856. Real
avg. hourly
earnings,
prod, workers,
mfg.
(1967-100) i(1967dol.)
859. Real
spendable
avg. wkly.
earnings
nonagri.
prod, or
nonsupv.
workers
857. Vacancy rate in
total rental
housing®
. {1967 dol.)
(Percent)
.. •
pal! 5
1.53
1.52
1.53
3.21
3.17
3.20
118.9
118.7
118.5
0.056
0.139
0.140
0.134
103 '.2
2.91
2.90
2.90
91.16
90.90
91.07
April
May
June
p34*5
1.53
1.52
1.52
3.20
3.23
3.16
120.0
121.8
122.0
0.053
0.133
0.138
0.139
103 !i
2.90
2.90
2.90
91.17
91.18
91.12
July...
August
September
p84*a
1.54
1.53
1.53
3.18
3.15
3.08
119.8
120.0
123.1
0.065
0.125
0.122
0.111
103 '.2
2.90
2.92
2.91
90.99
91.06
91-35
5*0
October
November
December
p8i*7
1.53
1.55
1.57
3.05
3.09
3.11
12^.6
121.1
120.6
0.063
0.111
0.119
0.112
103 '.3
2.91
2.91
2.91
91.09
91,01
90.52
4*7
p79*B
1.57
1.56
1.58
3.13
3.07
3.08
119.4
121.2
122.2
0.067
0.099
0.089
0.080
102*6
2.89
2.88
2.89
90.54
90.55
90.85
5*6
April
May
June
p70!6
1.59
1.56
1.56
3.07
2.97
2.95
118.3
115.6
115.5
0.075
0.069
0.063
0.064
103*6
2.88
2.89
2.89
90.27
B9.87
89.90
5."6
July
August
September
p?6*2
1.56
1.57
1.57
2.90
2.88
2.81
113.8
113.7
113.9
0.076
104*7
2.90
2.91
2.91
90.36
90.71
89*74
4*9
p72^
1.60
1.63
1.60
2.87
2.92
2.92
113.9
113.2
109.5
0.074
loV-3
2.85
2.86
2.91
89.49
89.35
89.72
4*6
173)2
1.57
rl.55
pl.54
2.95
3.02
p2.82
r!06.0
P105.1
rl02.6
rO.070
P105.8
•2.93
2.93
2.94
91.01
91.06
r-91.49
4.9
(MA)
(NA)
pl01.9
P2.95
1^2.05
1970
January
February
March
October . . ...
November
December
1971
January
February
March
,.
,.
April ....
May .
June
(NA)
5.0
5*1
***
July
August
September
October
November
December ...
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; H p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 57 and 58.
MAY 1971
ItCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
3 DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators
Year
and
month
DL Average workweek of production workers,
manufacturing (21 industries)
1-month span
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (35 industries)
9-month span
1-month span
9-month span
Dll. Newly approved capital appropriations,
The Conference Board
(17 industries)1
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
1969
January
February
March
47.6
28.6
97.6
42.9
23.8
26.2
71.4
47.1
50.0
82.9
77.1
65.7
53
65
April
May
June.
38.1
40.5
50.0
35.7
28.6
23.8
54.3
50.0
37.1
57.1
74.3
60.0
59
65
July...
August
September
33.3
45.2
50.0
61.9
23.8
16.7
60.0
38.6
65.7
64.3
48.6
42.9
53
47
October
November
December
14.3
57.1
81.0
34-3
42.9
22.9
50
29
16.7
44-3
31.4
47.1
33.3
26.2
57.1
37.1
51.4
40.0
41-4
40.0
51.4
47
29
19.0
28.6
9.5
9-5
.
1970
January
February
March
..
9.5
April
May
June
28.6
28.6
54.8
16.7
54-3
62.9
51.4
40.0
42.9
47.1
53
9.5
4.8
a
July
August
September
76.2
19.0
19.0
21.4
38.1
54-3
34-3
62.9
57.1
57.1
74.3
35
29
...
r47.6
r57.1
P45.2
28.6
60.0
50.0
48.6
r65.7
P48.6
r41
P41
•.
..
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
April
May .
June
9.5
76.2
61.9
81.0
r28.6
rSl.O
64.3
62.9
57.1
r62.9
P45.2
P51.4
P53
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are
placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are p]aced
on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised;
"p". preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
''•This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board.
IICII
MAY 1971
89
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
0 DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators-Con.
Year
and
month
D34. Profits,
manufacturing,
FNCB (about 1.000
corporations)
D19. Index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (75 industries)® 1
l*quarter span
1969
January
February
March
52
• ••
l*month span
9-month span
D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(13 industrial materials)
1-month span
9-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, week
including the 12th (47 areas)
1-month span
9-month span
12.0
43.3
13.3
73.3
40.0
H.7
53.8
61.5
46.2
84.6
80.8
76.9
72.3
38.3
55.3
70.2
46.8
40.4
April
May
June
55
54.0
74.7
1.3
12.0
6.7
21.3
65.4
57.7
76.9
69.2
76.9
92.3
48.9
57.4
23.4
58,5
34.0
25.5
July
August
September
49
4.0
34.7
61.3
25.3
21.3
20.0
61.5
76.9
57.7
76.9
76.9
69.2
51.1
59.6
38.3
20.7
24.5
8.5
October ... .
November
December
50
72.7
68.0
4.0
14.7
25.3
31.5
46.2
50.0
50.0
69.2
69.2
76.9
45.7
31.9
57.4
6.4
12.8
12.8
51
43.3
23.3
82.7
5.5
5.6
5.6
50.0
30.8
57.7
61.5
42.3
38.5
31.9
25.5
44.7
4.3
2.1
11.7
April
May
June
47
16.4
2.7
47.9
6.9
25.0
27.8
61.5
53.8
19-2
34.6
34.6
38.5
25.5
63.8
42.6
12.$
July
August. . ..
September
52
41.7
77.8
96.5
31.9
46*5
72,2
46.2
42.3
46.2
19.2
15.4
15.4
59.6
42.6
31.9
12.8
25.5
55.3
40
72,2
48.6
98.6
95.8
97.2
98.6
30.8
42.3
19.2
15.4
30.8
46.2
53.2
57.4
70.2
55.3
51.1
46.8
P57
46.2
61.5
80.8
46.2
,.
95. S
87.5
71.5
38.3
61.7
42.6
„.
S4.0
80.8
%5.4
1970
January
February. t t
March
•»+
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
S
6.4
2.1
48.9
,..
„
NOTE: Figures we the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes
are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index Dd4 which is adjusted only for the index. Table E4 identifies the components tor most of the indexes
shown. The V ind.cates revised; "p". preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Based on 75 components through March 1970, on 73 components through May 1970, and on 72 components thereafter.
"Average for day 4? H, and 18.
90
MAY 1971
IICII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
EH
Year
and
month
D41, Number of employees on
nonagricultural payrolls
(30 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
DIFFUSION INDEXES: Roughly Coincident Indicators
047, Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
1-month span
D58. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries)©
6-month span
1-month span
6-month span
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month span
9-month span
1969
January
February
March
91.7
71.7
73.3
86.7
76,7
73,3
54.2
62.5
91.7
83-3
70.8
77.1
68.2
75.0
75.0
81.8
79.5
84.1
69.6
60,9
21.7
73.9
82.6
71.7
April
May
June
51-7
56.7
63.3
75.0
68.3
58.3
45.8
66.7
70.8
75.0
72.9
62.5
84.1
79.5
84.1
90.9
90.9
88.6
73.9
41.3
54.3
67.4
65.2
56.5
July
August
September
51.7
55.0
48.3
53-3
50.0
50.0
45.8
54-2'
37.5
45.8
56.2
41.7
77.3
68.2
77.3
86.4
86.4
81.8
45.7
50.0
30.4
50.0
52.2
56.5
October
November
December
50.0
45.0
63.3
43.3
46.7
43.3
43.8
62.5
45.8
33.3
41.7
33.3
68.2
84.1
72.7
81.8
81.8
72.7
63.0
34-8
60.9
73.9
65.2
87.0
1970
January
February
March
4-5.0
41. 7
4-5.0
33.3
35.0
31.7
37.5
52.1
45.8
56.2
33.3
25.0
86.4
77.3
72.7
79.5
77.3
75.0
60.9
58.7
50.0
78.3
82.6
82.6
April
May
June
25.0
21.7
26.7
21.7
16.7
16.7
56.2
25.0
54.2
37.5
29-2
20.8
68.2
68.2
56.8
77.3
84-1
86.4
82.6
54.3
39.1
91.3
82.6
82.6
July
August
September
35.0
23.3
58.3
20.0
20.0
16.7
54-2
50.0
25.0
12.5
29.2
45.8
61.4
70.5
77.3
75.0
81.8
77.3
56.5
65.2
50.0
78.3
r69.6
r67.4
October
November
December ' .
33.3
35.0
55.0
23.3
r31.7
r40,0
47.9
41.7
58.3
r45.8
r43.8
r75.0
75.0
61.4
56.8
72.7
81.8
81.8
67.4
54.3
r47.8
r56.5
p82.6
(NA)
63.3
38-3
r36.7
P50.0
72.9
r29.2
r75.0
79.5
75.0
72.7
77.3
r43.5
r67.4
p69.6
1971
January
February
March
P48.3
April
May
June
p66.7
P79.2
68.2
(MA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans; 1-month indexes
are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes'are pfaced in the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used
except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p"t preliminary; and "NA", not
available. Unadjusted series are indicated by®.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 60.
ICO
MAY 1971
91
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1970
1971
Diffusion index components
January
December
November
October
September
February
March
AprilP
Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURINGx
(Average weekly hours)
All manufactuiing industries
-
Durable goods industries;
Ordnance and accessaries
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glas.s products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
...
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment. ...
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
•+
-
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
«
Printing and publishing
+
Chemicals and allied products
t
Petroleum and related products . . . .+
Rubber and plastic products
+
Leather and leather products
t
,_
+
-
39.6 o
39.6 +
39.8
39.5
(62)
(81)
(64)
(29)
39,3
(10)
+
39.7
39.6
38.3
40.9
40.9
39.8
+
+
+
+
40.1
39.2
39.2
41.0
39.9
40.1
+
+
+
+
40.2
39.9
39.4
41.1
39.6
40.0
+
o
+
+
+
+
40.6
39.9
39.6
41.4
39-9
40.3
+
+
40.1
39.2
39.8
39.4
38.1
+
+
o
+
+
40.4
39.7
39.8
39.8
38.3
+
+
+
+
40.6
39.6 +
39.9 +
40.0
38.6 +
40.4
39.7
40.2
39.6
38.8
+
+
+
o
40.0
36.1
38.8
34.2
41.4
+
+
+
+
+
40.5
38.1 +
39.6 o
34-9 +
41.7
40.4
38.4
39.6
35.4
41.6
+
+
+
o
37.4
42.0
43.0
40.0
36.5
o
+
+
37.4
41.3
43.2
39.6
37.0
37.5
41.3
43.0
39.4
37.1
+
+
+
+
+
40.5
39.0
39.7
35.4
41.5
37.6
41.4
43.5
39.5
37.3
39.4 +
(76)
+
o
+
+
+
+
•f
+
+
+
+
+
41.2
39.4
39.5
41.2
40.3
40.5
40.2
39.8
41.3
39.7
38.8
+
+
+
+
40.8
39.4
40.4
35.2
41.9
37.7
41.6
42.6
40.1
37.0
-
r40.7
36.1
r^O.l
34.7
41.8
+
+
+
o
+
r37.3
41.5
r43.3
40.0
36.6
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
40.1 +
39.2 +
41.5 +
39.3 +
37.8 +
P41.7
40.1
r39.3
r41.4
40.6
40.2
39.9
(81)
42.1
r40.1
r39.7
r41.9
r40.7
40.3
r40.2
r39.8
r£L.8
r39.7
r38.8
-
39.8
(45)
-
a. 5
o
o
-
40.1
39.2
41.5
40,7
40.2
o
40.0
39.8
-
39.5
38.6
r40.4
r37.9
r40.4
35.1
r4L.8
o
+
+
o
+
40.4
38.4
40.8
35.1
42.1
r37.5
ra-4
r42.2
r40.2
r37.4
+
+
+
+
37.4
41.7
42.3
40.5
33.1
- a.o
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries . . . . »
- 29,856
(63)
Primary metals
„
Blast furnaces, steel mills
Nonferrous metals
Iron and steel foundries. . . .
Other primary metals.
Fabricated metal products
Metal cans, barrels, and drums
Hardware, structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*
Internal combustion engines*
Farm machinery and equipment
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops.
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
-
4,709
2,253
+
+
+
+
;}+
+
+
+
- 28,504 +
(29)
29,009 + 30,602 + 31,405 + 31,867
(60)
(50)
(57)
(63)
4,348
1,977 +
•f
+
+
... +
4,544
2,057 +
...
...
...
4,962
2,586 +
5,428
2,906 -
+
... +
3,333
3,291
-
3,524
3,303
+
5,253
1} 464
70S
270
781
307
+
550
523
+
+
r5,!84
2,U2
... +
...
+
2,916
...
3,075
5,412
5,351
98
;} *9 ;>
*
+
672
262
+
+
+
+
+
;}
+
631 +
•f
+
-
5,044
(NA)
299
+
+
+
+
5,462
555
^38
316
757
281 +
733
290
4+
+>
564 +
568
+
l)
+
726 +
5,703
:)
*30
+
+
450
670
(NA)
3,231
5,419
+
+
581 +
(51)
+
+
5,346
386
-
- 31,122
+
...
+
+
+
5,100
2,543
- r31,773
(63)
+
+
+
(NA)
;} (NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
(NA)
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) - rising, (o) : unchanged, and (-) ™ falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. * Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
•"•Data arc seasonally adjusted by source agency.
92
MAY 1971
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1971
1970
Diffusion index components
March
February
January
December
November
October
September
April
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1-Continued
(Millions of dollars)
3,606
Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission distr equipment* ...... ;} 770
Electrical industrial apparatus*
Household appliances
+
Radio and TV
821 +
Communication equipmentt
Electronic components.
Other electrical machinery*
•f
...
3,954
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicles and parts, total
Complete aircraftt
6,062
7
;} ^
7,026
1,330
+
+
...
803
+}
4,354
3,985
3,958
819
766
753
1}
+
+
+
1,208 +
...
6,310
+
+
+
+
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
4,051
+}
.
1,464 -
1,251 -
7,872
7,017
+
-j-
+
+
1,233
+
857
:} (NA)
1,028
+
(NA)
p7,456
r7,864
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
Lumber total
Furniture total
Stone clay and glass total
Other durable goods total
(NA)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+}
+
8,599
t
-
...
;}
+
3,945
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
...
+
+
+
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS 2
(1941-43 - 10)
+
Index of 500 stock prices
Percenf rising of 72 components ...
Coal, bituminous
Food composite
Tobacco (cigarette manufacturers)
Textile products
Paper
Publishing
,..
.
82.58
+
+
+
+
+
+
84.37
-
(72)
(96)
+
+
+
+
84.28
+
(49)
+
+
+
...
90.05
+
(99)
+
•f
+
+
+
...
93.49
(96)
+
+
•f
+
+
+
+
-f
+
+
+
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobiles
Radio and television broadcasters .
+
+
-f
+
-f
+
+
+
+
+
+
Telephone companies
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors
Retail stores composite.
Life insurance
+
+
+
+
+
...
...
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
... +
+
+
+
+
+ 103.04
(72)
(84)
•. . +
+
... +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
^
...
99.60
+
+
+
Chemicals
Drugs
Oil composite
Building materials composite
Steet
Metal fabricating.
97.11 +
(38)
+
+
+
+
+
+
... +
... +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
,f_
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-H
...
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: ( +) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised. *Denotes machinery
and equipment industries that comprise series 24. t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 647.
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table E3.
2
BCII
MAY 1971
93
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1970
1971
Diffusion index components
September
November
October
December
January
March
February
May1
April
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES2
Industrial materials price
index (1967^100)
-
110.5 -
109.5
-
108.9 -
106.4 -
105.9 +
107.2 +
107.8 +
110.2
-
108.6
(Dollars)
(46)
Pereenf rising of 13 eompononfs
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (Ib,).
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin{lb.)
Zincflb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib,), 12-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average,
Wool tops (Ib.)...
Hides (Ib,).
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)
.524
.061
+ 46.315
+
1.772
.156
+
.163
o
.254
+
.224
1.296
o
.161
o 12.780
o
.194
.076
o
-
(31)
-473
.061
45.249
1.744
.155
.154
.251
o
.224
1.238
+
.162
+ 15.010
.186
+
.083
o
+
+
+
+
+
(62)
(42)
(46)
(81)
(81)
(19)
(65)
.408 +
.478
.448 •f
•453
.405
.419
.393 +
.048 o
.061
.04B o
.048 o
.048 4>
.055
.049
35-000 + 35.851 + 40.042 - 38.869 - 35.674 - 35.380 o 35.339
1.668 1.587 + 1.590 +
+
1.638
1.683 +
1.684
1.639 +
.156
.150
.152 +
.153
.149 +
.155
.155 +
.176
.182
.150 +
.148 +
.153 •f
.149 +
• U9
.249
.222
1.286
.165
17.137
.189
.082
.247
.222
1.244
.159
- 16.932
+
.197
.076
o
-
.256
+
.248 +
.222
o
.222 o
1.112
1.179 .157
o
.159
+ 17.056 + 17.857
.188 +
.190
.077
.075 +
+
.261
+
.260
1.067
+
.160
+ 17.928
+
.192
+
.079
+
.265
+
.278
+
1.091
+
.167
+ 18.000
+
.196
.075
+
.266
+
.532
1.023
+
.168
+ 18.036
+
.197
.053
D5, INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS 3
(Thousands)
Avg. weekly initial claims ...
338
Pereonf rising of 47 components
Northeast region:
Boston (7)
Buffalo (21)
Newark (11)
New York (1)
Paterson (20)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (10)
Rochester (26)
North Central region;
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (22)
Cleveland (9).
Columbus (25). . .
Detroit (5) .
Indianapolis (23).
Kansas City (19)
Milwaukee (18)
Minneapolis (13)
St, Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (16)
Baltimore (12)
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
San Francisco (6)
Seattle (17)
341 +
(32)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
~
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
297
+
(70)
<f
+
..,
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
291 +
(43)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
(49)
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
p274
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
278
(62)
4+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
282
(38)
+
"!
+
+
+
•*•
+
+
+
+
+
+
...
+
+
+
+
+
+
338
(57)
(53)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
... +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
for Hay 4, 11, and 18.
componentg are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(-) " rising, (o) " unchanged, and (+) = falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Cenoua before
the direction of change is determined. Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month.
Directions of change are
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. The number following the area designation indicates its size ""rank.
94
MAY 1971
IICII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1970
,
1971
Diffusion index components
September
October
November
December
February1"
January
March
April?
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 1
(Thousands of employees)
+ 70,531 - 70,182
All nonagricuttural payrolls
(58)
Percent rising of 30 components
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment .
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
,
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures . . . .
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products .
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing .
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products ,
Leather and leather products
128
+
495
+
377
+
505
+ 1,047
+ 1,067
- 1,281
- 1,258
+ 1,286
273
322
o
-
122
495
374
500
1,005
1,002
1,233
1,213
977
267
316
- 1,184
o
63
830
- 1,196
535
676
603
+
116
423
275
621
+
621 o
3,262 + 3,278
- 4,511 o 4,509
+ 3,850 + 3,857
+ 11,111 + 11,154
+
3,684 + 3,696
+ 11,622 + 11,665
2,649 + 2,654
o 9,936 + 10,064
+ 70,303
(35)
(33)
- 1,193
63
+
839
+ 1,210
+
543
-1680
+
606
115
+
436
276
Wining
Contract construction
,
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade.
Retai 1 trade
.,
Finance, insurance, real estate
Servi-ce and miscellaneous.
Federal government
State and local government „
- 70,085
118
492
373
495
981
985
- 1,218
- 1,181
967
264
312
+
+
+
+
+
+
114
488
370
499
990
1,021
1,209
1,188
1,239
262
320
+ 1,194
-f64
828
+ 1,200
+
538
675
597
o
116
419
272
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
625
3,319
4,437
3,855
10,996
3,723
11,727
2,650
10,129
- 70,590
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
o
+
+
-f
+
+
+
+
110
492
371
496
992
1,014
1,190
1,181
1,254
261
318
+ r70,662
(38)
(63)
(55)
+ 1,197
62
+
831
+ 1,207
536
+
677
595
o
116
o
419
270
625
3,303
4,493
3,851
11,094
3,711
11,695
2,661
10,114
+ 70,652
+
o
o
o
106
496
370
496
992
1,013
1,179
1,175
1,239
258
318
1,199 + 1,202
63
63 o
830
835
1,208 - 1,199
532
535
672
673
595
593
117
117 o
420 +
424
271
269
625
623
3,241 - 3,198
4,499 + 4,521
3,868 + 3,871
11,265 o 11,270
3,746 o
3,745
11,778 + 11,785
2,656 + 2,659
10,167 + 10,190
+ 70,719
(48)
(37)
o
+
+
+
-
r!03
r496
r371
r492
r993
r989
rl,172
r 1,183
rl,228
r255
r3l6
101
500
372
493
988
+ 1,010
- 1,162
- 1,170
- 1,224
•f
256
o
316
+
+
+
- rl,199
r6l
r825
+ rl,212
r531
r670
r590
o
117
+
r430
r268
622
+ r3,258
- r4,517
-f r3,883
- rll,259
+ 3,753
+ rll,807
- r2,657
-I- rlO,227
- 1,193
o
61
+
829
•f 1,224
529
668
589
o
117
- 429
+
272
621
+ 3,307
- 4,481
- 3,878
+ 11,265
+ 3,779
- 11,791
+ 2,668
+ 10,284
+ rl65.5
(75)
+ 166.0
D47. iNDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1957-59-100)
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated rrmtals.
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay glass and lumber „
Clay glass and stone; products
Lumber and products ,
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
- 162.3
(48)
- 161.5
(42)
+ 164.4
(58)
+ 165.6
- 165.2
(73)
(29)
- 142.6
- 169.2
133 '.9
- 160.6
129^3
- 158.7
+ 135 .*4
+ 160.0
+ r!37.*6
+ rl63.0
-
-
172.'?
- 187.4
- 121.9
+ 181.7
- 165.8
(25)
.........
180.0
194.5
139.0
181.8
148 !?
- 108.2
+
+
(67)
+ 140.8 + rl43.1
+ 164.1 + rl64.8
+
+
147
166
165*. 5
17o!4 - rl66.*2 - 185.1 + 185.9 - 182.9
+ 142.5 + 148.6 + 148.8
- 180.5 + 181.4 - 179.5
165^6
+ 184.5
- 146.6
- 176.2
+
165
186
143
178
+
HO
148 '.5
149^4 110.1 - 107.0
+ 152.6
- 105.8
151." 3 + rl!7.0 -
+ rl39.1
+ r!52.3
(NA)
+
152
(NA)
+ 174^7
+ 158.5
174*5
- 157.5
o 174.5
+ 158.0
173 '.9 + 175^6
+ 159.1 + rl6l.2
+
+
176
162
176.1
191.9
122.0
181.3
171 ! 7 +
173^9
- 157.7 - 156.3
15o!9
pll6.9
+
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency, NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised,
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions
of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded.
2
MAY 1971
95
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1970
1971
Diffusion index components
October
September
December
November
March
February
January
April
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1-Continued
(1957^59=100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products . .
Rubber and plastics products
,
-
P159
(NA)
p!52
+ r!36.5
+ P153.5
(NA)
(NA)
- 166! 2 + 168.0
- 151.5 - 150.2
+ 171.7 169*5 + 170.0
+ 152.4 + 152.7 - 152.6
o
o
p!70.0
152.6
- pi69.*3
- 152.5
+
+
+
-
+
225.4
r243*B + P244.7
rl52.1 + p!53.0
(NA)
p219-8
4-
4243^7
4- 154.2
- 218.9
p226
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
+
+
240.8
+ 150.3
221.4
4
Pl37
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
- 145.1 - 143.9 + 149.1 + p!51.7
- 135.5 + 141.7 - rl40.3 - pl38.0
p82.2
93.1 + 94.2 + 94.7 -
...... «
<
+
- 145.7 + 146.7
- 139.3 - 138.7
+ 94.6 + 97.2
o 240!?
- 150.1
- 219.1
243.*9
156..0
222.3
+ r245.*3
- r!52.7
+ r224.3
Foods, beverages, and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Tobacco products
+
+ 142.4 - 139.6
+ 122.9 4- 124.1
+
-
142.7
121.6
144.4 + r!46.7
121.7 + 121.9
- r!46.5
+ P125.7
4- rl45.5
+ P147.0
(NA)
4-
+
p!46
(NA)
(M)
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals.
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
+ . . ..
t
- 127.9
+ 140.3
+ 128.1
+ 141.5
-
127.3 + 130.1 + r!36.3
139.1 - 137.4 - r!34.6
- 129.5
- rl34.Q
4- P138.1 +
+ rl35.2 +
t
-
+ us.'i
+ 142.0
+ 160 '.1 159 .*7 + rl6o!3
+ 142.7 4- 145.2 + 146.7
-
rl6o'.6
144.4
4- pl60.1
+ p!47.8
P143
P135
p!52
(NA)
+
112.4
'
,
-
. » ...
,
144*5
140.5
(m)
058, INDIEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES 2
(1967=100)
All manufacturing industries
»
+
110.8
+
111.2
(77)
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables.
Nonmetallic mineral products
1 ron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products. . .
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and plastic; products
Hides, skins, leatier, and related products
o
111.2
o
(61)
(75)
111.2
+
111.8
(80)
(57)
+ 114.2
+ 107.8
+ 113.8
4- 116.7
- 113.1
+ 108.0
+ 114.2
4- 117.4
111.1
111.9 + 108.4 -f- 108.7
+ 1U. 6 +
115.1
- 116.5 o 116.5
- 122.7
4- 113-6
+ 116.9
+ 115.0
- 122.0
+ 114.1
+ 117.2
+ H5.9
+
+
+ 113.4
+ 107.5
+ 107.3
4- 111.5
+
+
+
+
116.1
+ 114.6 4- 115.6 +
+ 107.9 + 108.2 + 108.8
+ 112.8 + 113.4 + 113.9
+ 111.8 + 111.9 + 112.3
+ 113.0
+ 105.7
98.7
- 100.7
+ 112.0
- 111.8
+ 106.0
- 97.7
- 99.1
+ 112.3
111.7
+ 106.2
o
97.7
98.0
+ 112.4
- 110.7
4- 106.9
96.8
97.5
111.9
+
in. 8
+
-
107.1
96.2
97.2
112.3
108.3 + 108.9
102.5 + 103.0
101.6 o 101.6
109.4 4- 109.5
109.9 + 110.4
- 108.7
+ 103.3
+ 103.1
- 109.1
+ 110.9
o
+
+
-
+
+
+
113.9
107.6
112.5
111.6
119.4 113.9 4117.6 o
116.2 +
116.7
114.2
117.6
117.0
108.5
103.3
107.5
109.4
110.4
+
(75)
112.7
(73)
4- 113.0
(68)
+
4+
+
112.2
109.3
118.8
117.6
124,. 6
+ 117.5 + 123.4 4+ 109.7 - 109.6 4- 109.7
+ 119.0 + 120.9 + 121.6
+ 118.0 + 118.2 + 118.4
4+
o
115.4
115.2
117.7
117.0
+
o
+
114.2 115.7 4117.7 4117.3 +
- 115.9
+ 109.3
+
114-1
4- 112.6
+ 116.3
+ 109.7
- 113.8
4- 112.8
+ 117.2
+ 116.8
+ 118.0
+ 118.3
+ 117.0
- 109.5
+
114.1
- 112.7
+ 113.3
4- 107.5
- 95.4
+ 97.4
- 112.0
4- 113.7
4- 107.8
- 94.5
+ 97.6
+ 112.2
- 113.5
+ 108.9
94.4
+
9S.6
o 112.2
+ 109.0 + 109.3
+ 103.8 + 104.2
+ 107.9 - 106.9
- 108.4 + 109.1
+ 111.7 + 112.4
o 109.3
+ 104.5
- 105.9
o 109.1
+ 112.5
+ 109.6
o
104-5
- 105.3
- 109.0
+ 114.0
+
113.7
116.6
117.9
117.8
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (4-) - rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) - falling, Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency, NA = not available, p - preliminary, r = revised.
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
a
96
MAY 1971
KCII
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1970
1971
Diffusion index components
September
October
December1"
November
Januaryr
February1"
March p
April
054. SALES OF RETAIL STORES 1
(Millions of dollars)
+ 30,885
- 30,534
(50)
+
Grocery stores
Eating and drinking places . . ,
+
Department stores
+
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . .
Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores . „
Women's apparel accessory stores
+
+
+
Household appliance, TV, radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers
Hardware stores
„
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations . . . ,.
Drug and proprietary stores. . „
Liquor stores
„
o
+
+
+
+
+
(67)
6,420 o
2,374 +
3,231 +
311 +
603
387
627
304
- 30,208
+
+
+
856
402
958
279
+
+
5,214
438
2,165
1,101
687
+
+
6,422
2,386
3,259
324
597
398
655
332
+ 30,481 + 31,154
(54)
o
+
-
+
+
596
403
673
325
+
(NA)
(70)
(NA)
6,550
2,339
3,342
303
+
6,525
2,300
3,322
317
+
+
+
6,476
2,318
3,418
327
+
+
+
+
6,545
2,351
3,494
334
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
603
389
668
314
+
619
379
659
279
596
390
660
280
+
+
+
+
607
384
695
261
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
873
460
943
277
+
+
+
911
462
990
268
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
5,387
486
2,230
1,081
704
+
+
+
+
5,657
491
2,206
1,111
719
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
861 +
433
953 -f
275
890
411 +
972 +
273
863
415
1,002
255
+
+
+
+
895
435
1,031
259
+
+
+
4,016 +
431
2,242 +
1,099 689
4,313
400
2,264
1,083
647
+
+
+
5,011
470
2,213
1,078
712
4,515
427
2,217
1,090
690
(67)
(44)
(48)
6,421 +
2,394 3,240 +
321
+ 31,611 + 32,183
+
+
+
+
+
+
-f
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p =» preliminary, r « revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
2
ItCII MAY 1971
97
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Hi
Year
and
month
133, Canada,
781. United
index of consumer
States, index of
consumer prices® prices ®
(1967-100)
1969
January
February
March
(1967-100)
CONSUMER PRICES
138. Japan, index
of consumer
prices ®
137. Italy, index
of consumer
prices ©
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
132. United King- 135. West Germany, 136. France,
dom, index of
index of consumer index of consumer
consumer prices® prices®
prices®
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
107
107
108
106
106
107
108
109
109
104
104
105
108
109
109
108
108
109
102
102
103
April
May
June
109
109
108
108
3.09
110
110
111
105
105
105
110
110
111
110
110
110
103
103
104
July
August. . . .
September
110
111
111
110
110
110
110
110
111
105
105
105
111
111
112
113
104
105
105
October , . .
November
December
1970
January
February
March
112
112
113
110
110
111
112
112
113
105
106
107
113
113
113
in
in
114
105
106
106
113
in
114
111
112
112
in
in
115
107
108
108
114
115
115
116
117
118
107
107
108
April
May
June
115
116
116
112
112
113
117
117
117
108
109
109
116
117
117
119
118
117
108
109
109
July
August
September
117
117
118
113
113
113
us
118
119
109
109
109
118
118
118
118
118
122
109
109
110
October..,.
November
December
1971
January.
February
March
118
118
119
113
113
113
120
121
121
no
109
119
119
120
124
123
124
111
111
112
119
119
120
113
113
123
124
(NA)
120
121
(NA)
125
125
125
112
113
(NA)
April
May
June
120
(NA)
110
in
110
pin
112
113
in
113
114
127
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p"« preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 62.
98
MAY 1971
!!€!»
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Year
and
month
47. United
States, index of
industrial pro*
duction
123. Canada,
index of industrial production
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
126. France,
index of industrial production
125. West Germany, index of
industrial production
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
128. Japan, in- 121. OECD,1
dex of industrial European counproduction
tries, index of
industrial production
127. Italy, index
of industrial production
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
1969
January .
February .
March
169
170
171
185
188
191
LU
142
144
183
181
180
187
189
191
403
410
405
180
rl80
182
r237
r233
r240
April
May .
June
172
172
174.
188
186
187
143
U3
144
186
188
183
190
195
198
428
430
435
184
185
186
r243
r238
r245
July
August
September.
175
174
174
187
183
183
145
143
143
188
188
187
190
197
193
446
44-3
458
187
187
rl86
r244
r239
r22S
October
November .
December
173
171
171
186
189
190
143
146
145
191
186
190
197
207
203
469
466
477
187
rl88
rl,S9
r2l6
r214
r221
1970
January
February
March
170
170
171
192
195
191
143
145
148
196
196
196
205
207
208
476
487
493
192
195
rl95
248
r25l
r252
April
May
June
170
169
169
191
189
190
148
142
145
198
195
194
207
211
204
504
502
523
196
195
rl94
r249
r246
r24.5
July
August
September .
169
169
166
189
189
188
144
144
14&
194
194
197
206
205
202
525
519
525
195
194
195
r250
r237
r251
October
November .
December
162
162
164
188
191
190
049
144
14B
197
198
199
206
204
205
522
512
526
r!97
196
197
r247
r252
249
1971
January
February
March
166
165
rl66
r!91
P192
(NA)
148
(NA)
201
p202
217
216
p209
r523
r526
P523
P201
(NA)
248
P247
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
pl66
April
May
June
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 63.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
BCII
MAY 1971
99
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
1
H STOCK PRICES
19. United States, 143. Canada, index 142. United Kingindex of stock
of stock prices ® dom, index of
stock prices ®
prices, 500 common
stocks ®
Year
and
month
(1967-100)
1969
January
February
March
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
146, France, index 145. West Germany, 148. Japan, index
of stock prices ® index of stock
of stock prices ®
prices ©
(1967=100)
110
108
ru
114
111
165
159
153
112
126
April
May
June
110
ILd.
I'll
114
108
120
L43
133
13A
1A2
130
July
August
September
303
102
103
128
128
130
127
133
133
i/p
140
145
111
,
112
107
106
109
136
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
147. Italy, index
of stock prices ®
(1967^100)
136
137
138
12Q
131
132
100
98
13Q
137
1^15
1AA
112
113
111
150
1^1
13Q
147
108
112
113
156
164
159
160
156
161
120
1?1
115
116
116
1X6
1A6
147
1A2
148
too
104
305
99
no
114
127
129
132
98
95
96
115
113
116
139
135
131
153
149
146
152
147
167
165
172
93
83
82
113
97
94
129
116
113
140
136
132
147
135
129
171
148
149
120
112
106
July
August
September
82
85
90
93
73
76
115
118
120
136
138
135
127
133
128
150
151
148
103
107
103
October
November
December
1971
January
February
March
92
92
93
78
78
80
128
120
121
137
134
135
126
121
11 Q
1A5
145
140
101
96
103
106
108
84
83
84
123
122
120
136
139
125
134
137
T /C
91
151
April
May
June
112
p34.0
rp86
131
p!37
•nJt/
•nl/5
T)136
October
November
December
.,
,
114
1970
January
February
March
,
April
May
June
,
..
137
I/O
9/
ir»r\Q/,
161
13*>
rfl PQ
•prftft
nT71
p86
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these s & r t c s are shown on page 64.
100
MAY 1971
BCII
APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered
Monthly series
Cl
1
C
T/C
MCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
I/C
for
MCD
span
Cl
1
C
MCD
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
*1.
4.
*5.
*6.
Average workweek of production workers, mfg,. . .. Jan. '53-June 70 .. 0.48
Jan.'53-Sep. '70.. 2.00
Nonagricultural placements, all industries
Avg. initial claims, State unemploy. insurance .... Jan.'53-Dec. '70.. 4.86
Jan. '53-Oct. '70.. 3.47
New orders, durable goods industries
Jan. '53-June 70" 6.68
0.43
1.54
4.32
3.09
6.41
0.17
1.05
2.10
1.31
1.54
2.52
1.47
2.06
2.36
4.15
3
2
3
3
5
0.83
.76
.73
.72
.87
2.30
2.16
1.79
1.79
1.56
1.51
1.56
1.48
1.53
1.45
9.95
11.16
14.33
9.26
8.71
3.98
3.91
4.10
3.58
3.15
Jan. '53-June 70.. 9.08
Jan. '53-Oct. 70 . . 4.71
.84
Jan. '53-June 70..
Jan. '53=June 70 . . 2.61
Jan. '53-Jan. '69 .. 21.95
8.94
4.40
.63
2.31
21.41
1.12
1.33
.59
.97
2.04
8.00
3.30
1.08
2.39
10.47
6
4
2
3
6
(x)
.85
.60
.85
(^
1.56
1,69
2,65
1.83
1.50
1.51
1.52
1.55
1.56
1.45
14.93
9.26
7.21
7.74
9.14
2.91
3.04
4.43
3.29
2.46
.58
2.49
1.39
4.09
7.05
.48
1.74
.98
3.73
6.74
.26
1.59
.88
1.40
1.52
1.87
1.09
1.11
2.66
4.44
3
2
2
3
5
.85
.62
.69
.92
.84
2.46
2.46
2.65
1.76
1.64
1.70
1.63
1.77
1..53
1.53
5.97
9.09"
9.95
11.83
7.56
4.22
4.08
3.78
3.01
2.81
9. Construction contracts, commercial and indus
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
*12 Index of net business formation
14. Liabilities of business failures ®
*17.
*19
*23
24.
28.
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
Stock prices 500 common stocks (u)
Industrial materials prices ©
New orders, producers' capital goods industries....
New private housing units started, total 2
Jan.'53-June70..
Jan. '53-June 70..
Jan. '53-June 70..
Jan. '53-Oct. 70..
Jan.'59-May'70 ..
*29
*41
42
46
*47.
New building permits private housing
Employees on nonagricultuial payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Help-wanted advertising
Industrial production
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-June 70 . . 4.22
.30
'53<>June70..
'53-Dec. 70..
.33
'53-Dec. '69 .. 2.55
'53-Mar. 70 . . .91
3.72
.13
.25
1.49
.48
1.70
.26
.20
1.97
.69
2.19
.48
1.25
.76
.70
3
1
2
1
1
.75
.48
.64
.76
.70
1.83
6.53
2.29
3.50
3.49
1.49
1.47
1.58
1.43
1.63
11.61
20.90
14.33
10.15
12.87
3.29
6.53
3.57
3.50
3.49
48
49.
*52
53
*54.
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Nonagricultural job openings unfilled . „
Personal income
Wages salaries in mining mfg construction
Sales of retail stores
Jan, '53-June 70 . . .41
Jan. '53-Jan. '69 .. 2.93
Jan. '53-June 70..
.57
Jan. '53-June 70..
.81
.91
Jan.'53-Sep. 70..
.29
1.65
.25
.50
.77
.28
2.19
.51
.62
.45
1.01
.75
.49
.80
1.72
2
1
1
1
2
.52
.75
.49
.80
.96
2.90
3.43
6,15
3.12
2,08
1.54
1.73
1.58
1.53
1.56
11.61
11.29
29.86
14.93
17.67 '
5.20
3.43
6.15
3.12
3.15
4.73
2.47
3.36
2.71
3,66
1.72
1.54
1.81
1.57
1.48
11.21
10.60
11.06
6.74
16.31
4.73
3.91
4.79
4.08
3.66
1.59
30.29
Jan. '53-Oct. ( 7 0 . Jan. '53-Sep. 70 . .
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods©.
Jan. '53-Sep. '68 ..
Jan. ( 53-June70..
65. Book value, mfrs.' inventories of finished goods. . . Jan. '53-Sep. 7 0 . -
.19
.99
.20
.57
.63
.10
.72
.15
.42
.28
.16
.60
.13
.35
.55
.67
1.20
1.19
1.19
.51
1
2
2
2
1
.67
.64
.73
.68
.51
66. Consumer installment debt
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
.81
.10
.79
.13
1
.13
Jan. '53-Sep. 70 .- 1.72
*71. Book value, manufacturing ;and trade inventories. . . Jan. '53°Sep. 70 . . .53
.89
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Jan. '53-Mar. 71 ..
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Jan. f 53-Oct. 70 .. 1.29
1.39
.18
.36
.48
.89
.51
.81
1.15
1.56
.36
.44
.41
2
1
1
1
.81
.36
.44
.41
1.96
7.31
6.81
4.63
1.58
1.57
1.58
1.59
17.67
30.29
19.82
14.20
2.89
7.31
6.81
4.63
.95
70..
70 . . .88
.85
70..
.84
70 ..
.93
70 ..
.54
.72
.66
.70
.53
.76
.45
.48
.43
.68
.71
1.58
1.38
1.63
.77
1
2
2
2
1
.71
.86
.64
.92
.77
3.87
2.30
2.01
2.18
3.12
1.54
1.56
1.46
1.58
1.71
11.00
12.29
9.95
9.95
7.74
3.87
3.85
4.08
3.01
3.12
.94
.89
.88
.87
.40
.28
.30
.76
.83
2.89
.53
.34
3
1
1
.91
.53
.34
1.63
4.86
9.09
1.39
1.44
1.58
13.06
17.42
19.00
3.70
4.86
9.09
.14
.21
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods ©
Jan. '53-Oct. 70 ..
6.59
Exports excluding military aid
Jan.'59<>Dec. '69.. 6.69
Export orders, durables except motor vehicles .... Jan. '63-May '68 .. 10.41 10.28
6.05
Jan. '57-Dec. 70.. 6.35
Export orders nonelectrical machinery
4.41
Jan. '59-Dec. '69 . . 4.73
General imports
.16
.80
1.13
1.71
1.07
.89
8.25
9.13
3.54
4.14
1
6
6
4
5
.89
(x)
3.80
1.62
1.42
1.65
1.75
1.64
1.62
1.36
1.52
1.54
8.52
18.71
12.80
7.95
10.08
3.80
2.93
2.57
2.88
3.43
6
6
6
6
2
C1)
(x)
.89
1.51
1.47
1.43
1.51
2.72
1.51
1.46
1.40
1.45
1.68
6.65
8.52
9.77
8.88
9.64
2.21
2.15
2.28
2.26
4.14
2
3
1
2
1
1
.92
.86
.56
.63
.67
.24
2.58
2.01
5.07
2.79
3.93
59.00
1.73
1.54
1.61
1.62
1.46
1.59
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities ©
fllfl
10 loaHino inrtirfltnrQ TPWPTQP trpnri arlin^tprl
ftiA
Panitat invp<itmpnt commitments
Jan. '53-Sep. 70 ..
Jan. '53-June
Jan. '53-June
Jan. '53-June
Jan. '53-June
Jan. '53-June
Jan. '53-June 70 ..
Jan. '53-June 70..
Jan. '53-June 70 ..
16.31
16.31
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
58.
502
506.
508
512.
616. Defense Department obligations, total
621. Defense Department obligations, procurement
751 Wholesale prices processed foods and feeds
752 Wholesale prices farm products
782 Consumer prices food
783 Consumer prices commodities less foods
784. Consumer orices. services (u)
July '53-Sep. 70 Jan. '56-Dec. 70 •.
Jan. '53-Dec. 70 ..
Jan. '53-Oct. ' 7 0 Jan. '53-Sep. 70 - jan
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
'53-June 70
'53-June 70 ..
'53-Oct. ' 7 0 . .
'53-June 70 ..
'56-Oct. 70 ..
'56-Oct. 70 ..
12.31
23.36
19.35
18.83
.30
12.06
23.17
19.26
1-8.77
.24
1.23
2.01
2.37
1.47
..15
9.82
11.53
8.12
12.77
1.54
.60
1.13
.23
.39
.20
.31
.47
.99
.11
.27
.11
.07
.32
.48
.20
.25
.16
.31
1.47
2.06
.56
1.08
.67
.24
O)
.90
.80
C 11 )
C )
11.00
9.09
12.53
8.04
10.41
177.00
3.78
4.22
5.07
3,85
3.93
59.00
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.
101
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered
Monthly series
CI
1
C
I/C
MCD
I/C
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
1
C
MCD
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
851.
852.
853.
855.
856.
859.
Ratio, inventories to sales mfg. and trade.
Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods .
Ratio, production of bus. equip, to consumer goods.
Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled to unemployed
Real avg, hour y earnings, production workers, mfg.
Real spendable1 average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers
Jan. '53-June '70.. 0.91
Jan. '53-Sep. '70.. 1.B5
Jan. '53-Mar. '70 . . .96
Jan. '53-Mar. '70 . . 5.37
.38
Jan. '53-June '70. .
Jan. '64-June'7Q..
s.os
0.81
1.61
.65
3.27
.35
0.42
.05
.60
3.92
.17
1.95
1.89
1.08
.83
2.05
3
3
2
1
3
.75
.59
.83
.78
2.52
2.10
2.54
3.22
3.03
1.65
1.59
1.57
1.53
1.57
10.45
11.16
8.96
7.92
9.95
3.96
4.46
3.22
6. a?
.31
.29
.11
2.68
3
.82
1.75
1.51
9.62
3.13
0.66
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121.
122.
123.
125
126.
OECD European countries, industrial production . .
United Kingdom industrial production
Canada industrial production . . . . «
West Germany industrial production
France industiial production . . . . 4
.93
Jan.'53-Aug.70..
.95
Jan. '53-May'70..
Jan, '53-May 70 . . .84
Jan. '53-May 70 . . 1.82
Jan. '53-May 70 . . 1.06
.84
.91
.68
1.69
1.77
.58
.38
.54
.66
.71
1.44
2.38
1.27
2.56
2.49
2
3
2
3
3
.73
.82
.61
.67
.90
3.15
2.60
3.85
2.06
2.63
1.51 17.50
9.90
1.43
1.43 10.40
1.45 29.71
1.46 13.87
7.24
127.
128
132.
133.
135.
Italy industrial production .......
Japan industrial production ........ . ,
United Kingdom consumer prices©
Canada, consumer prices®
West Germany consumer prices©
Jan. '53-Apri! 70- • 1,49
Jan. f 53-June'70-- 1.70
.47
Jan. '53-Apri 1 70*.27
Jan. '53-June 70 ••
.32
Jan.'53=June'70"
1.32
1.18
.48
.32
.36
.75
1.25
.30
.21
.23
1.77
.95
1.61
1.52
1.60
3
1
2
2
3
.69
.95
.96
.80
.69
2.80
3.22
6.68
9.95
1.77 29.57
1.37 16.08
1.72 15.92
1.90 13.06
1.94 13.06)
5.69
3.32
7.1,0
14.86
11.50
136.
137.
138=
142.
143.
France consumer prices©
Italy, consumei prices©
Japan, consumer prices®
United Kingdom, stock prices®
Canada, stock prices @
Jan. '53-May 70 - Jan. '53-Apr. 70 - Jan. '53-JuneVO-.
Jan. '53-June 7 0 - Jan. '53-June 70 - •
.51
.32
.81
3.18
2,78
.43
.34
.73
2.41
2.19
.40
.30
.41
1.81
1.53
1.07
1.13
1.81
1.33
1.43
2
2
3
2
2
.55
8.32
.61 18.82
.68
3.17
.84
2.75
3.03
.94
1.56
1.77
1.61
1.79
1.77
10.40
8.20
12.29
8.36
9.95
9.00
22.89
6.47
3.71
3.92
145.
146.
147.
148.
West Germany, stock prices©
France, stock prices @
Italy, stock pri:es@
Japan, stock prices©
Jan. '53-June 70..
Jan. '53-June 70..
Jan. '53-June 70 .
Jan. '53-June 70..
3.23
3.97
. 3.63
3,57
2.03
3.30
2.95
2.45
2.27
1.88
1.73
2.24
.90
1.75
1.71
1.09
1
3
3
2
.90
.68
.78
.67
3.54
2.43
2.40
3.12
1.80
1.70
1.87
1.67
7.74
7.21
8.36
7.21
3.54
4.22
4.81
4.62
included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
when MCD ie "6."
@
a. 36
Measures are baaed on unadjusted data.
4, eg
3.45
4.58
5. 89
1
Not ehown
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business
Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper
57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957
(reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957),
"GI" is the average month-to-month percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
(i.e., the series after adjustment for measurable seasonal,
trading-day, and holiday variations).
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by
dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-month
spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar.,
Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span, MCD is the shortest span in months for which the
102
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
and remains so.
Thus, it indicates the point at which
fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series
with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
"T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
adjusted series. It is shown for 1-month spans and_for spans
of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", no I/C ratio is
shown for the MCD period.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations.
When there is no change between 2 months, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C,
and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is an unweighted
moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD)
of the seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1—Continued
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1adjusted series has been successfully separated into an
month intervals in a random series, the expected value of
essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom)
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
component.
Finally, ADR is 4.13 for the MCD moving
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month interaverage. This indicates that a 3-month moving average of
vals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the
the seasonally adjusted series (3 months being the MCD
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of
span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4
CI is 1.75 for the series on average weekly initial claims,
months. The increase in the ADR from 1.75 for CI to 4.13
State unemployment insurance (series 5). This indicates
for the MCD moving average indicates that, for this series,
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on
month-to-month changes in the MCD moving average usually
the average, reverse sign about as' often as expected in a
reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series,
random series. The ADR measures shown in the next two
whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adcolumns, 1.47 for I and 12.00 for C, suggest that the seasonally
justed series usually do not.
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Monthly Series: Average Actual Changes
i/c
Period
covered
Monthly series
Unit of
measure
CI
T
C
f/c
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
1
C
MCD
2.05
2.32
1.54
1.51
11.00
9.95
3.49
5.31
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
2. Accession rate, manufacturing
Jan. '53-June '70.
3. Layoff rate manufacturing
20, Change in book value, manufacturers'
inventories of materials, supplies,
21. Avg. wkly. overtime hrs., prod, workers, mfg.
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus. .
26. Buying policy, production materials, commitments 60 days or longer (u)
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories .
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
*43 Unemployment rate total
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
45. Average weekly insured unemploy. rate
0.18
.15
0.17
.14
1.48
.09
.49
1.42
.09
.47
5,71
5.57
4.14
4.09
Pet. reporting
Ann. rate,
bil.dol
3.43
2.76
1.27
1.11
Jan/ 53-Oct. '70.
Jan. '53-Dec, '70.
Jan. '55-Mar. '71 Jan. '53-Mar. '71 .
Jan. '53-Dec. 70Jan. '53-Oct. 70 .
Pet. reporting
Percent
...do
...do
...do
..-do
5.12
.08
.15
.17
.07
.16
4.84
.07
.12
.14
.06
.09
Jan. '53-Nov. 70.
Ann. rate,
percent
Mil. dol
Ann. rate,
percent —
Ann. rate,
bil.dol....
... do . ...
Jan. '53-June '70.
Jan. '53- Sep. '70.
Jan. '56-June '70.
Jan. '53-Oct. '70.
Jan. '53-Oct. '70.
Jan. '53-Sep. 70.
Jan. '53-Sep. '68.
Jan.'55-Dec.'70.
Jan. '53-June 70.
93. Free reserves®
98. Change in money supply and time deposits. . . Jan. '53-Nov. 70Aug. '59-Mar. 71.
*113 Change in consumer installment debt . . .
114. Treasury bill rate® . . . ,.
116. Corporate bond yields©
117. Municipal bond yields ® ,
118 Mortgage yields residential ©
Per 100
employees .
..do
Ann. rate,
bil.dol....
Hours
Bil.dol
Jan. '53-Sep. 70.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Pet. reporting
Ann. rate,
bil.dol....
'53-Oct. 70. Percent
'53-Oct. 70. ...do
'53-Oct. 70. ...do
'53-Oct. 70. ...do
' 53-Oct. 70. ...do
2.89
94.10
3.05
2.33
4
3
.30 4.80
.04 1.96
.13 3.66
6
3
4
C 1 ) 1.61
.64
.98
3.33
1.72
1.43
1.57
1.54
6.84
11.53
7.89
2.80
7.43
3.13
1.06
5.23
6
(X)
1.81
1.65
11.21
4.62
.60
6.83
6
C1)
1.46
1.44
11.16
2.80
1,49
2
.97
3.03
1.86
8.17
3.74
2.60
3
.89
1.87
1.57
11.24
3.10
4
5
2
2
2
1
.98
.92
.84
.76
.62
.74
'2.17
2.17
3.53
2.60
4.67
4.63
1.69
1.87
1.47
1.47
1.60
1.75
7.61
7.41
10.78
9.91
6.72
8.19
4.57
4.59
4.49
3.95
6.29
4.63
6,06
1.55
6
2
C1)
.93
1.61
2.05
1.48
1.58
6.69
9.95
2.82
3.20
0.06
.06
1.85
.43
1.54 3.15
.02 3.79
.08 1.56
.10 1.43
.05 1.22
,74
.12
.48
2.89
74.67 "48.15
0.80
.82
2.60
2.58
.58 4.46
5
.96
1.53
1.50
7.13
2.39
2.70
.95
2.63
.87
.51 5.20
.33 2.66
6
.3
C1)
.93
1.64
1.71
1.56
1.56
6.32
11.78
2.85
3.13
.16
.08
.12
.10
.68
.11
.06
.11
.08
.73
.11
.04
.06
.04
.11
1.02
1.59
1.65
1.88
6.61
2
3
3
3
6
.66
.74
.71
.83
C1)
2.63
2.66
2.39
2.57
4.63
1.82
1.90
1.69
1.85
2.37
6.66
8.19
10.65
8.88
6.09
3.79
4.69
3.98
4.22
6.12
13.7
8.83
6
(x)
1.41
1.35
18.71
2.57
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
500. Merchandise trade balance
Jan.'58-Dec. '68.
Mil. dol
122.7
121.4
• Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
©Measures are based on unadjusted data,
2
when MCD is "6."
Bimonthly series; average changes, MCD, and average durations of run are for bimonthly spans.
shown
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This
method is used for series with zero or negative data and for
other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
expressed in percent.
Thus, "CI* is the average month-to-month change in the
seasonally adjusted series.
This average is computed
without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of
measure as the series itself.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part 1.
103
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered
Quarterly series
ci
1
C
T/c
I/C
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
QCD
1
C
1.30
1.30
9.86
6.90
34.50
10.14
7.10
11.50
13. so
7.67
3.63
17.25
6.43
4.44
7.67
13.80
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
200
205
210
215217.
220.
222.
GNP in currant dol lars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
..
Per capita GNP in current dollars. . . .
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
National income, current dollars . .
Personal income, current dollars
IO'53'IIQ70..,.
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-liQ70..-.
IQ'53-IVQ70...
IQ'53-IVQ70...
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
1.59
1.18
.61
1.33
1.00
1.66
1.54
.30
.30
.11
.28
.31
.33
.22
1.54
1.07
.60
1.26
.87
1.57
1.51
.19
.28
.18
.23
.35
.21
.15
1
1
1
1
1
1
.19
7.67
3.63
.28
.18 17.25
.23
6.45
.35
4.44
.21
7.67
.15 13.80
IQ'53-IIQ70..,.
IQ f 53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IVQ70...
1.49
1.07
1.17
.27
,29
.24
1.44
1.00
1.13
.19
.29
.22
1
1
1
.19
.29
.22
13.80
6.27
6.45
1.35
1.35
1.29
69.00
9.86
10.14
13.80
6.27
6.45
IQ'53-IVQ'70...
.82
.28
.73
.39
1
.39
4.44
1.37
7.10
4.44
IQ'53-IIQ70....
1.47
.33
1.43
.23
1
.23
9.86
1.25
69.00
9.86
IQ'53-IIQ70..,.
1.02
.37
.98
.37
1
.37
5.31
1.21
7.67
5.31
IQ'53-IIQ70....
3.05
1.47
2.32
.64
1
.64
2.76
1.19
4.60
2.76
10 '53-110 70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
2.09
6.00
1.23
1.76
.85
3.62
.44
.20
1.84
4.01
1.19
1.73
.46
.90
.37
.12
1
1
1
1
.46
.90
.37
.12
4.31
2.38
6.27
69.00
1.28
1.25
1.30
1.25
6.90
3.45
34.50
69.00
4.31
6.27
69.00
240.
241
242.
243.
244
Gross private domestic investment, total
IQ'53-NQ70....
Total nonresidential fixed investment
IQ'53-MQ70....
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures
IQ'53-IIQ70....
Fixed investment, producers' durable equipment . . IQ'53-IIQ70....
Fixed investment, residential structures
IQ'53-IIQ70....
4.56
2.56
2.74
3.13
3.44
2.08
.83
1.65
1.15
1.12
3.37
2.38
2.13
2.67
3.10
.62
.35
.78
.43
.36
1
1
1
1
1
.62
.35
.78
.43
.36
2.56
4.60
2.30
2.88
3.45
1.41
1.33
1.23
1.23
1.33
4.31
6.27
4.06
4.31
6.27
2.56
4.60
2.30
2.88
3.45
252.
253.
260
262.
264.
224.
225.
226.
227.
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, constant dollars ....
Per capita disposable personal income, current dol.
Per capita disposable personal income, constant
dollars
230. Total personal consumption expenditures, current
dollars
231. Total personal consumption expenditures, constant
dollars
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods,
except automobiles
234 Personal consumption expend automobiles
236. Personal consumption expend., nondurable goods .
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services
*3 "3
1.33
1.31
1.27
1.35
1.25
a. 33
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services . . . , ,
Gov purchases of goods and services total
Federal Gov. purchases of goods and services , . .
Federal Government purchases of goods and
services for national defense
»•
266. State and local gov. purchases, goods and services
IQ'53-11070....
10 '53-11(370....
iQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
3.79
3.18
1.95
2.22
2.40
1.86
.57
.92
2.63
2.37
1.83
1.91
.91
.79
.31
.48
1
1
1
1
.91
.79
.31
.48
2.76
2.76
5.75
2.88
1.35
1.30
1.28
1.28
5.31
6.27
13.80
4.31
2.76
2.76
5.75
2.88
IQ'53-11070....
1Q'53-IIQ70....
2.19
2,35
.83
.44
1.82
2.34
.45
.19
1
1
.45
.19
2.65
23.00
1.23
1.28
4.60
23.00
2.65
23.00
270,
274 .
280
282.
284
286.
IQ'53-IIQ70....
0 '53-110 70....
Q'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ70"-.
2,19
1,30
1,68
.1.21
*99
4.10
.87
.49
.24
.61
.35
2.10
1.88
1.24
1.64
.97
.91
3.20
.46
.40
.14
.62
.38
.66
1
1
1
1
1
1
.46
.40
.14
.62
.38
.66
3.29
6.27
9*86
2.46
9.86
2.88
1.30
7.67
1.25 17.25
1.30
9.86
5.75
1.35
1.35
6.27
3.63
1.21
3.29
6.27
9.86
2.46
9.86
2. SB
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ'53-IIQ70---10 '53-110 7 0 . . - .
3.85
4.67
8*87
.89
2.28
6.87
3.81
3.61
4.90
.23
.63
1.40
1
1
2
.23
.63
.50
23.00
3.14
1.53
1.28
1.21
1.30
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ '53-110 70....
8.98
1.82
5.35
.34
6.25
1.78
.85
.19
1
1
.85
.19
2.16
23.00
1.28
1.30
IQ'53-IIQ70....
IQ I 53-IIQ70....
IQ '53-110 70-...
IQ'53-IVQ'69 - . .
8.56
4.85
1.48
2.90
4.46
2.79
.30
.97
6.52
3.74
1.46
2.65
.68
.75
.21
.37
1
1
1
1
.68
2.65
.75
2.65
.21 13.80
3.94
.37
1.25
1.21
1.21
1.16
3.14
4.06
13.80
6.09
2.65
2.65
13.80
3.94
.91
Q'53-IIQ7U....
Q'53-IIQ70.... 5.01
IQ '53-IVQ 7& . . . 9.77
IQ'53-IIQ70.... 1.59
IQ'53-IIQ70.... 1.18
.36
.86
6.36
.30
.30
.79
4.86
6.82
1.54
1.07
.46
.18
.93
.19
.28
1
1
1
1
1
.46
.18
.93
.19
.28
4.06
4.06
2.54
7.67
3.63
1.28
1.30
1.22
1.30
1.30
5.31
5.31
3.74
9.86
6.90
4.06
4.06
2.54
7.67
3.63
2.88
2.30
1.51
8.10
2.73
1.12
.74
.31
5.63
1.45
2.55
1.81
1.45
4.61
1.77
.44
.41
.21
1.22
.82
1
1
1
2
1
.44
.41
.21
.55
.82
3.40
4.60
6.57
1.95
2.25
1.16
1.35
1.31
1.30
1.13
•5.67
5.75
9.20
3.55
3.46
3.40
4.60
6.57
2.37
2.25
Final sales, durable goods
Final sales nondurable goods
Compensation of employees
proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adjustment. .
288
290.
292
294.
Net interest
».
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
»
Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory
valuation adjustment
„
296 Capital consumption allowances • • »
23.00
6.27
4.06
3.14
23.00
23.00
3.14
2.34
2.16
23.00
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
11.
*16
57,
*61.
68.
97.
110.
*200
*205
New capital appropriations, manufacturing
Corporate profits after taxes. ...............
Final sales
»
Business expend, new plant and equipment
Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
*
Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing .
Total private borrowing
+
GNP in current dollars
*
GNP in 1958 dollars
*
C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
6la.
410
412430a
435.
Business expend new plant and equipment
Manufacturers' sales total value .. +
Manufacturers' inventories, total book value
New car purchases by households . *
Index of consumer sentiment
«
IQ'57-IVQ'69 ...
IO'5HIIQ'68-..
Q'57-IIIQ'68 • • •
IQ'59-IVQ'68 ...
IIQ'57-IIIQ'68---
See definitione of measures at end of part 1.
104
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered
Quarterly series
T
Cl
C
I/C
I/C
for
QCD
span
QCD
Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl
1
C
QCD
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
252.
253.
264.
530
532.
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services.
National defense purchases
Liquid liabilities to all foreigners
Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official agencies
534 U S official reserve assets
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted
540. Investment income, military sales, and other
services exports
541. Foreign investment income, military expenditures,
and other services imports
IQ'60-IIQ 70....
1Q'6(HIQ'70....
IQ'53-IIQ'70....
IQ '60-1Q '70 ..-.
3.79
3.18
2.19
2.62
2.40
1.86
.83
1.06
2.63
2.37
1.82
2.09
IQ '60-IQ ' 7 0 . . . .
4.38
2.85
2.84
IQ'6(HQ'70....
IQ '60-IQ ' 7 0 . . . .
IQ'60-IQ'70....
2.19
4.59
4.40
1.14
3.39
2.60
IQ '60-IQ '70 ....
3.49
IQ '60-IQ 70 ....
1
1
1
1
.91
.79
.45
.51
2.76
2.76
2.65
2.35
1.35
1.30
1.23
1.29
5.31
6.27
4.60
2.86
2.76
2.76
2.65
2.35
1.00
2
.33
2.11
1.14
3.08
2.60
1.80
2.58
3.16
.63
1.31
.82
1
2
1
.63
.62
.82
2.86
1.74
3.08
1.29
1.38
1.29
3.64
3.64
6.67
2.86
3.55
3.08
2.14
2.60
.82
1
.82
1.90
1.33
8.00
1.90
2.57
1.34
2.07
.65
1
.65
2.50
1.21
6.67
2.50
.91
.79
.45
.51
542
543
544
545
546
Income on U S investments abroad
Income on foreign investments in U.S
Receipts from foreign travelers in U.S
Payments by U S travelers abroad
Military sales to foreigners
IQ'60-IQ'70....
IQ '60-IQ '70....
Q '6Q-IQ 70 ....
Q'6EHQ'70....
Q '60-IQ 70....
5.64
4. 98
3.32
3.88
18.40
3.72
1.89
1.73
2.58
14.24
3.72
4.77
2.69
2.61
9.02
1.00
.40
.64
.99
1.58
2
1
1
1
2
.40
.40
.64
.99
.68
1.90
5.00
3.08
2.35
1.43
1.18
1.18
1.38
1.21
1.25
3.64
6.67
4.44
3.64
2.22
3.00
5.00
3.08
2.35
2.17
547
548.
549,
601.
602.
U S military expenditures abroad
Q '60-IQ '70... .
Receipts from transportation and other services. . . Q '60-IQ 70....
Payments for transportation and other services . . . Q '60-IQ 70 ....
Fed. receipts, nat:'!. income and product accts. . . .Q'53-IIQ'70.-..
Fed. expend., nat' 1. income and product accts. . . . Q'53-IIQ70....
3.56
2.60
3.34
2.53
2.15
2.16
1.69
2.42
.90
.90
2.51
1.98
1.84
2.33
1.90
.86
.85
1.31
.38
.47
1
1
2
1
1
.86
.85
.58
.38
.47
2.11
3.08
1.82
3.63
4.60
3.64
1.29
1.25 13.33
1.21 6.67
1.30
6.27
1.25
6.27
2.11
3.08
2.79
3.63
4.60
8.48
.83
6.81
.39
4.67
.67
1.46
.58
2
1
54
.58
1.47
3.00
1.30
1.21
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
854. Ratio, persona! saving to disposable personal
IQ'53-IIQ70 ...
IQ'53-IIQ'70 • - -
3.63
6.27
3.24
3.00
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators,
by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted
from Journal of Business, October 1957).
and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated
by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with
a QCD greater than "2" are shown as "3".
"CI" is the average quarter-to-quarter percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
or, if the series contains no measurable seasonal, in the
unadjusted series.
"T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally ad justed
series. It is shown for 1-quarter spans and for spans of
the period of QCD. When QCD is "3", no T/C ratio is shown for
the QCD period.
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained[
by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"QCD" (quarters for cyclical dominance) provides an
estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a quarterly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
QCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-quarter
spans (1st quarter-2d quarter, 2d quarter-3d quarter, etc.),
2-quarter spans (1st quarter-3d quarter, 2d quarter-4th
quarter, etc.), up to 4-quarter spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the'changes over each
span. QCD is the shortest span in quarters for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
quarterly changes in the same direction in any series of
observations. When there is no change between 2 quarters, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series CI, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and
the QCD curve. The QCD curve is an unweighted moving
average (with the number of terms equal to QCD) of the
seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series, Over 1quarter intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-quarter
intervals in a moving average (QCD) of a random series, the
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of CI is
1.47 for the series on the ratio of personal saving to disposable
personal income (series 854). This indicates that 1-quarter
105
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART I—Continued
changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average,
reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series.
The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.30 for I
and 3.63 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has
been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is
3.24 for the QCD moving average. This indicates that: a
2-quarter moving average of the seasonally adjusted series
(2 quarters being the QCD span) reverses direction, on the
average, about every 3 quarters. The increase in the ADR
from 1.47 for CI to 3.24 for the QCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, quarter-to-quarter changes in the QCD
moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend
movements of the series, whereas the quarter-to-quarter
changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not;.
A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2, Quarterly Series: Average Actual Changes
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Unit of
measure
CI
1
C
f/C
QCD
i/C
for
QCO
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
1
C
QCD
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
245 Change in business inventories total
!Q'53-IIQ'70...
7^fl
IQ'53-IIQ 70...
IQ'53-IIQ'70...
IQ'53-IIQ '70...
IQ'53-IIQ 70...
Ann. rate,
bil.dol....
...do
...do
...do
...do
1.60 1.14
.61
.78
1.38 1.08
.56 2.09
2.46
.59
2.76
.84
2.34
1.42
2.89
1.82
.48
1.48
1.17
1.44
C6fltS
.48
.28
.32
Percent —
...do
Ann, rate,
bil.dol....
.46
.11
.31
.05
.33
.11
2.76
IQ'57-IIIQ'68 ..
Mil. cars ...
93.26
IQ'60-I!Q70...
Mil.dol.....
226.3 141.8
IQ'6Q-IIQ'70...
...do
615.4
IQ'60-IIQ70...
525. Net capital movements plus unilateral
transfers liquidity balance basis
IQ'60-IIQ70...
527. Net capital movements plus unilateral
transfers official settlements ba$is
IQ'60-IIQ'70...
560 Foreign direct investments in the U S
IQ-60-HQ70...
561 U S direct investments abroad
IQ-60-HQ70...
564 Foreign purchases of U S securities
IQ'60-HQ'70...
565 U S purchases of foreign securities
!Q'60-IIQ'7Q...
570. Government grants and capital transactions,
IQ'60-IIQ'70...
n@t
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net. . .IQ'6(HIQ'70...
600. Fed. balance, nat'l. income and product accts. IQ'53-IIQ 70...
...do
Wpt pxnfirt? nf 0niiH^ 3nrl ^prviff^
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods.
275. Change in bus. inventories, nondurable goods .
?Qft fiftuprntnpnt ^nrnln? nr Hpfirit tntal
2
1
2
2
1
.53
.78
.52
.89
.59
1.68
2.46
1.60
1.53
3.00
1.35
1.33
1.33
1.30
1.38
3.63
3.83
2.76
2.38
4. Of?
2.72
2.46
2.72
2.12
3.00
.87
1
.87
2.59
1.32
3.33
2.59
.95
.48
1
1
.95
.48
2.56
2,70
1.25
1.48
5.31
3.65
2.56
2.70
2
.53
1.68
1.35
3.63
2.72
.94
1
.94
2.30
1.35
3.07
2.30
150.1
.94
1
.94
1.78
1.32
3.15
1.78
409.5
333.0
1.23
2
1.78
1.32
2.41
2.67
736.5
499.0
426.4
1.17
2
.66
1.86
1.46
2.41
2.35
...do
705.9
501.4
352.1
1.42
2
.61
1.86
1.41
2,93
2.50
...do
...do
...do
...do
...do
840.8
79.8
239.4
181.1
133.4
580.0
65.7
190.4
139.0
114.0
430.0
38.0
87.7
105.2
75.2
1.35
1.73
2.17
1.32
1.52
2
3
3
2
2
.62
C 11 )
1.71
1.46
1.52
1, . 46
.67
.45
1.71.
1.32
1.21
1.41
1.32
1.17
2.36
1.86
2.56
2.73
2.73
2.22
2.00
2 . 44
2.11
2.35
...do.....
...do
Ann. rate,
bil.dol.-..
309.8
327.2
243.5 143.6
244.4 163.6
1.70
1.49
2
2
.67
.76
1.52
1.46
1.28
1.32
2.16
2.05
2 . 15
1.82
2.96
1.55
2.32
.67
1
.67
2.38
1.35
4.06
2.30
...do,....
Percent
...do
4.37
1.72
.26
1.53
.69
.16
3.69
1.40
.17
.42
.49
.93
1
1
1
.42
.49
.93
3.14
2.82
2.04
1.33
1.41
1.36
5.31
3.65
3.27
3.14
2.H2
2.04
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, mfg. . . IQ'53-IIIQ70...
22. Ratio of profits tc income originating,
IQ'53-IIQ 70...
corporate all industries
IQ'53-I1IQ'68...
*67 Bank rates on short-term bus. loans©
IQ'53-ilQ70...
245 Change in business inventories total
1.82
1.60
1.14
C, ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
480 Changs in freight carlo3dings(§)
53.01 56.21
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding
military grants
520. U.S. balance cf payments, liquidity balance
1.23
522. U.S. balance cf payments, official settlements
C )
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
207 GNP gap (potential less actual)
850 Ratio output I'o capacity manufacturing
8^7 Vacancy rate n total rental housing©
IQ'53-IIQ 70...
IQ'53-IIIQ'68 ..
IQ'56-IIQ'68...
#Scries included In the 1966 NBKR "short list" of 26 Indicators.
when QCD is "3".
©Measures are based on unadjusted data.
•'-Not f
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This
method is used lor series with ^ero or negative data and for
other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
expressed in percent.
Thus, "CI" is the average quarter-to-quarter change in the
seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without
regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure
as the series itself.
106
"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component: from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part 1.
B. Current Adjustment Factors
19 70
19 71
Series
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec,
Jan.
Feb.
122.8
84.5
71.0
80,3
97.5
132.8
U9.8
103.3
91.8
96.1
99.2
85.7
102.8
104.6
July
5. Average weekly initial claims,
State unemployment insurance
13. New business incorporations
1
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of
sales rnfg 2
33. Net change in mortgage debt held
by financial institutions and life
insurance companies1 3
37. Purchased materials, percent of
companies reporting higher
inventories
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over,
total installment loans 4
102.9
96.4
+52
103.5
+U8
99.9
+89
93.3
98.8
+91
86.7
-43
94.6
96.0
Apr.
in. 4
93.1
92.6
79.4
81.7
94.1
110.9
107.1
98.9
106.4
97.4
+231
-332
91.2
99.9
112.9
June
Mar.
-404
101.0
May
TO"? L
-142
110.2
-6
-90
104.9
105 8
+371
107.9
93.1
91.3
99.8
100.1
100.1 100.7
108 2
98 7
97 7
100 5
106.4
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstandingi
101.4
99.8
99.2
99.6
99 3
100.3
100 3
508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery
98.1
92.0
98,5
101 2
Q/ 5
101 6
103 1 105 1
98.4
101.7
114.6
105 8
86 4
90 9
97 8
83 7
89 3
93 5
90 6
"I/3 7
58.7
87.3
151.2
112.3
83 8
95 0
86 9
77 0
84 7
8A %
83 o
19A 0
93.5
118.2
111.2
+11
77.2
98.2
88.3
-14
86.7
84.5
79.5
84.2
173.2
616. Defense Department obligations,
total
621. Defense Department obligations,
procurement
625. Military contract awards in U.S. . . . 104.1
-8
D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB) 5 . . .
99 2
+12
NOTE: These series are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-ll Variant of the Census
Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
•"•Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors. Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to
rounding.
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, :.n millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
Method II seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series. Factors are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.).
5
l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed in the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the .'seasonally adjusted index.
107
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1961
Duration in months
'
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
Trough
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
Cycle
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Business cycle reference dates
June 1857
October 1860
April 1865 .
June 1869
October 1873
". March 1882
30
22
46
18
34
36
(x)
(x)
18
8
32
18
65
48
30
78
36
99
4Q
54
32
101
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
IB
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
23
13
24
23
7
ll
33
19
12
44
15
22
44
46
43
35
51
(x)
. . . .
. .
3o
May 1885
April 1888
May. 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
December 1895
June 1899
September 1902
August 1904 *
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921.
May 1907 . .
.
January 1910
January 1913 ...........
August 1918
January 1920 * • - * • • •
May 1923
July 1924
November 1927 .
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926
August 1929
May 1937
February 1945
November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
68
~m
41
34
93
93
JB
%
August 1954 .
April 1958
February 1961
July 1957
May 1960
13
~9
9
35
25
(X)
56
44
34
48
34
(X)
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961 . .
10 cycles 1919-1961 .
4 cycles, 1945-1961...
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
Average, peacetime cycles:
22 cycles, 1854-1961 ..
8 cycles, 1919-1961...
3 cycles, 1945-1961...
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
...»
.
*
56
3a
36
67
I?
40
23
149
!H
46
g
3
*46
4§
642
5
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and II, and Korean War), the postwar contractions,and
the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
X
25
2
cycles, 1857-1960.'
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
108
3
4 cycles,
4
1945-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
5
1
6
cycles, 1920-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Appendix F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Cyclical indicators
Specific dates are listed under the reference cycle dates to which they correspond. Numbers in parentheses indicate leads (-) or
lags (+) of specific dates in relation to reference dates
Specific trough dates correspond ng to expansions beginning inSeries
October 1949
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961
LEADING INDICATORS
Dec.
5.
12e
6
10
29.
31.
23.
19.
16.
17.
113.
810.
'60
Avg. weekly initial claims, State unemploy. insur. (inverted) . Feb. '61
Jan. '61
Index of net business formation
Jan. '.61
New orders durable goods industries
May (61
Contracts and orders plant and ecjuipment
Dec.
'60
New building permits, private housing
Change mfg. and trade inventories
Dec. '60
Industrial materials prices
Dec.
'60
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Oct. '60
Corporate profits, after taxes (Q)
IQ
'61
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
Jan. '61
Change in consumer installment debt
Apr. '61
Composite index of 12 leading indicators
Dec. '60
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
Apr.
Apr.
Dec,
IQ
Mar.
Mar.
Feb.
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'57
'58
'58
'58
'58
(0) Apr.
(6) Sep.
(0) Mar.
(-3) Mar.
(-1) Mar.
(-2) Sep.
(Q) Nov.
(0) Oct.
(-4) Sep.
(-2) IVQ
(-1) Mar.
(-1) Mar.
(-2) Nov.
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'53
'53
'53
'53
'53
'54
'54
'53
(-4)
(+1)
(-5)
(-5)
(-5)
(-11)
(-9)
(-10)
(-11)
(-9)
(-5)
(-5)
(-9)
Apr.
Oct.
July
June
Apr.
Jan.
Apr.
June
June
IIQ
May
Jan.
May
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
(-6)
(0)
(-3)
(-4)
(-6)
(-9)
(-6)
(-4)
f-4)
(-5)
(-5)
(-9)
(-5)
May
July
IQ
(0) IQ
(0) Apr.
Feb.
(-1)
Mar.
(+2)
Mar.
(0) Apr.
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
.
(-2)
(0)
(-1)
(-1)
(+3)
(-2)
(-2)
(-2)
(-4)
(0)
(-1)
(+2)
(-2)
'ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
'61
'61
IVQ '60
IQ
'61
Feb. '61
• , NSC
Jan. '61
Apr. '61
Feb. '61
Feb.
43.
200.
205.
47.
52.
56.
Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
GNP in current dollars (Q)
GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales
............... -May
820 Composite index of 5 coincident indicators
LAGGING INDICATORS
44 Unemploy rate 15 weeks and over (inverted)
61. Business expend, new plant and equip. (Q) . . . , . <= »
71. Book value mfg. and trade inventories. . . „ < , „
62. Labor cost per unit of output mfg0
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans (Q)
830. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators
July '61
IQ
June
Sep.
NSC
IVQ
(0)
(+3)
(-3)
(+5)
'61
'61
'61
'61
July '61
(0)
(+4)
(+7)
(+9)
(+5)
Aug.
IIIQ
Aug.
June
July
IIQ
Aug.
(+1 )
(+3)
(-2)
(-2)
(0)
(-2)
(-1)
(-1)
(0)
Aug.
Sep.
IIQ
IIQ
Apr.
Apr.
Aug.
Jan.
Aug.
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
'54
(0)
(+1)
(-3)
(-3)
(-4)
(-4)
(0)
(-7)
(0)
Oct.
Oct.
IVQ
IIQ
Oct.
July
Oct.
NSC
Oct.
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
(0)
(0)
(+1)
(-5)
(0)
(-3)
(0)
'49
(0)
'58 (+4)
'58 (+4)
'58 (+4)
'59 (+14)
'58 (+3)
'58
(+1)
'58 (+4)
Oct.
IVQ
Oct.
Sep.
Oct.
IQ
Oct.
'54 (+2)
'54 (+3)
'54 (+2)
'55 (+13)
'54 (+2)
'55
(+6)
'54 (+2)
Nov.
IVQ
Dec.
July
Aug.
IQ
Dec,
'49
'49
'49
'50
'49
'50
'49
(+1)
(+1)
(+2)
(+9)
(-2)
(+4)
(+2)
Specific peak dates corresponding to contractions beginning in-
Series
July 1957
May 1960
November 1948
July 1953
LEADING INDICATORS
Apr, '59 (-13) Nov. '55 (-20) Mar. '53
1. Avg. workweek, prod, workers mfg.
(-4) Dec. '47
5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State unemploy. insur. (inverted). Apr. '59 (-13) Sep. '55 (-22) Nov. '52
(-8
Jan. '47
12. Index of net business formation
Apr. '59 (-13) Mar. '55
-28
Sep. '52 (-10) NA
6. New orders durable goods industries
Apr. '59 (-13) Aug. '56
(-11) Jan, '53
(-6) Aug. '48
10. Contracts and orders plant and equipment
Sep. '59
( - 8 ) Nov. '56
(-8) Sep. '52 (-10) June '48
29. New building permits, private housing
Nov. '58 (-18) Feb. '55 ( - 2 9 ) Nov. '52
(-8) Oct. '47
31. Change, mfg. and trade inventories
Dec. '59
( - 5 ) Apr. '56 (-15) Jan. '53
(-6) July '48
23. Industrial materials prices
Nov. '59
(-6) Dec. '55 (-19) Feb. '51 (-29) Jan. '48
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
July '59 (-10) July '56 (-12) Jan. '53
(-6) June '48
16. Corporate profits, after taxes (Q)
IIQ '59 (-12) IVQ '55 (-20) IIQ '53
( - 2 ) IIQ '48
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,, mfg
June '59
(-11) Oct. '55 (-21) Jan. '51 (-30) June '48
0
113. Change in consumer installment debt
Aug. '59
( - 9 ) Mar. '55 (-28) Dec. '52
(-7) Mar. '48
810, Composite index of 12 leading indicators
Jan. '60
(-4) Nov. '56
(-8) Jan. '53
(-6) June '48
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Apr. '60
(-1) Mar. '57
(-4) June '53
(-1) Sep. '48
43. Unemployment rate total (inverted)
Feb. '60
(-3) Mar. '57
(-4) June '53
(-1) NA
200. GNP in current dollars (0)
IIQ '60
(0) IIIQ '57
(+1) IIQ '53
( - 2 ) IVQ '48
205. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
IQ
'60
(-3) IIIQ '57
(+1) IIQ '53
( - 2 ) IVQ '48
47, Industrial production
Jan. '60
(-4) Feb. '57
(-5
July '53
(0 July '48
52. Personal income
NSC
Aug. '57
(+1) Oct. '53
(+3
Oct. '48
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
Jan. '60
(-4) Feb. '57
(-5) July '53
(0
Aug. '48
54. Sales of retail stores
. Apr. '60
(-1) Aug. '57
(+1) Mar. '53
(-4) NSC
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators
Feb. '60,
(-3) Aug. '57
(+1) July '53
(0) Oct. '48
(-11)
(-22)
(-3)
(-5)
(-13)
(-4)
(-10)
(-5)
(-6)
(-5)
(-8)
(-5)
(-2)
(0)
(0)
(-4)
(-1)
(-3)
(-1)
LAGGING INDICATORS
44.
61.
71.
62.
72.
67.
830.
Unemploy. rate 15 weeks and over (inverted)
Business expend, new plant and equip. (Q)
Book value mfg. and trade inventories
Labor cost per unit of output mfg,
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Bank rates on short-term bus. loans (Q)
Composite index of 6 lagging indicators
.' May
IIQ
July
Jan.
NSC
IVQ
May
'60
'60
'60
'61
'59
'60
(0)
(0)
(+2)
(+8)
...
(-6)
(0)
Sep.
IIQ
Sep.
Mar.
Sep.
IVQ
Sep.
'57
(+2)
'57
(-2)
'57 ( + 2 )
'58 (+8)
' 5 7 ' (+2)
'57
(+4)
(
57 (+2)
Oct.
IIIQ
Sep.
Mar.
July
IVQ
Oct.
'53
'53
'53
'54
'53
'53
'53
(+3)
(+1)
(+2)
(+8)
(0)
(+4)
(+3)
Jan.
IVQ
Feb.
Nov.
Aug.
IIQ
Nov.
'49
'48
'49
'48
'48
'49
'48
(+2)
(0)
(+3)
(0)
(-3)
(+6)
(0)
NOTE: Specific peaks and troughs mark the dates when individual series reach their cyclical turning points, whereas reference peak and trough dates indicate the cyclical
turning points in business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 26 series on the NBER "short list " and three composite indexes, the specific peaks and troughs
corresponding to post-World War II business cycles. The determination of specific turning points is largely a subjective matter, and honest disagreement may exist among individual analysts. Therefore, the dates listed above should not be interpreted as being absolute. See Measuring Business Cycles by Burns and Mitchell (NBER: 1946) for
further information on dating specific peaks and troughs.
*
NA= Not available. This indicates that data necessary to determine a turning point are not available.
NSC = No specific cycle. This indicates that no specific turning point corresponding to the indicated reference date is discernible,
Q = Quarterly series. Leads and lags are measured from middle of quarter to reference date.
109
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INDEX
Series Finding Guide
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
descriptions
data
Issue date) (issue date)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," foltowing.this index)
Al. Gross National Product
?f)(l GNP in current dollars
1
...
217 Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars. .
A2. National and Personal Income
220 National income current dollars .
224.
225.
226.
227.
9,^,38
9,21,38,56
9
9
9
PMP in IQ^fl rift liar ?
£\y. Miiputil pn^c uciidiui
....
10
10
10
Disposable personal income, current dol
Disposable personal income, constant dol ... 10
Per capita disposable personal income,
10
Per capita disposable personal income,
10
• •*
«
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230. Total, current dollars
231. Total, constant dollars
,
11
11
11
233. Durable goods] exc. autos, current dol ars. . .11
11
234, Automobiles, current dollars
11
236. Nondurable goods, current dollars
11
24Gv Gross private domestic investment, total
242 Nonresidential structures
A5. Foreign Trade
9^9 Exoorts of poods and services
A6. Gov. Purchases, Goods and Services
260. Federal, State, and local governments
262. Federal Government
264 National defense
266. State and local governments
A7. Final Sales and Inventories
271. Change in business inventories, durable
275. Change in business inventories,
nondurable goods
280 Compensation of employees .... ,
286. Corp, profits and inventory valuation adj
288 Net interest
A9, Saving
290* Gross saving, private and government
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances
5,65,71
5,65,71,87
5,65
5,65
5,65
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Oct.
Oct.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
5,65
5,65
5,65
5,65
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'70
'70
'70
'70
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
5,65
Oct.
'70
Oct.
5,65
Oct.
'70
Oct.
B2. Production, Income, Consumption, Trade
'69 1 *200, GNP in current dollars
'69 *205. GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production
'69
*52 Personal income
'69
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr ...
'69
Oct.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'70 Oct.
'70 Oct.
'70 Oct.
'70 Oct.
'70 Oct.
'70 Oct.
'70 Oct.
12
12
12
12
12
12,26
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66,74
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
13,47
13,49
13,49
5,67
5,67
5,67
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'70 May '69
'70 'May '69
'70 May '69
14
14
14,53
14
5,67
5,67
5,67,85
5,67
.Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Dec.
'70
'70
'70
'70
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
15
5,67
Dec.
'70 Oct.
"69
15
15
5,67
5,67
Dec.
Dec.
'70 Oct.
'70 Oct.
'69
'69
15
5,67
Dec.
'70 Oct.
'69
16
16
16
16
16
5,67
5,67
5,67
5,68
5,68
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
17
17
5,68
5,68
Dec.
Dec.
'70
'70
Oct.
Oct.
17
17
17
5,68
5,68
5,68
Dec.
Dec.
Dec.
'70
'70
'70
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'69
'69
'69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
6,69
Aug.
Aug.
June
Aug.
June
Aug.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
Aug.
'68
June
Aug.
June
Aug.
'69
'68
'69
'68
6,69
6,69
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
6,70
June
.Dec.
Aug.
Aug.
Apr.
Apr.
Dec.
Apr.
Apr.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'71
'71
'70
'71
'71
June '69
45. Avg. .weekly insured unemploy. rate
40. Unemployment rate, married males
*44. Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over
19
19
19
19,38
19
20,38
20
20
20,39
•*$eries preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
6,65,71 Dec. '70
6,65,71,87 Dec. '70
6,71,99
Apr. '70
6,71
Aug. '70
6,71
Aug. '70
6,71
Nov. '70
6,71
Aug. '70
6,71
May '70
Oct.
Oct.
Nov.
July
July
Feb.
July
'69
'69
'68
'68
'68
'69
'68
'68
Nov.
'70 3ep.
'68
Aug.
Nov.
Feb.
June
Apr.
'70
'70 Sep. '68
'70
'70
'71 Apr. '69
Nov.
Aug.
Apr.
'70 Sep.
'70
'70 Nov.
'68
Nov.
'70 Sep.
'68$
7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
Nov.
Nov.
Jeb.
Nov.
Feb.
'70 Oct.
'70 Feb.
'70
'70 Sep.
'70
'69
'69
7,74
7,74
7,74
7,74
Feb.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'70
'70 Sep. '68
'70 Feb. '69
'70 Sep. '68
28,37
28,37
28,37
7,75
7,75
7,75
Apr . ' 71 Apr. '6"
July '70 May '69
Aug. '70 July '61
28
28
28,37
7,75
7,75
7,75
Aug. '70 July '66
Apr. '71 Mar. '69
Aug. '70 Nov. '68
29
29,55
7,75
7,75, B6
Sep. t 70 June '69
Sep. '70 June '69
29
29,39
7,75
7,75
Aug.
Aug.
30
30
30
30,37
7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76
Jan. '71 Aug. '68
Jan. '71 Aug. '68
.July '70
July '64
May '70
110 Total private borrowing
30
31
31
31
7,76
7,76
7,76
7,76
Feb.
Apr.
June
Apr.
'70 July '64
'71 July '64
' 70
'71
93 Free reserves
114 Treasury bill rate
116 CorDorste bond yields
32
32
32
32
7,77
7,77
7,77
7,77
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
Mar.
'70
'70
'70
'70
7,77
8,77
8,77
8,77
8,77
Mar.
May
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
6,78
Feb.
'71 Aug.
'70
78
Feb.
Feb.
Aug.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
Feb.
'71 Aug.
'71 Nov.
'70 Nov.
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'70
'68
'68
B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
245. Change in bus. inventories, ail indus .... 12,26
26,37
37. Purchased materials, higher inventories .. 26
20. Change in materials, supplies inventories . 26
26
32.
25.
*71.
65.
Vendor performance, slower deliveries ... 27
27
Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods
27,39
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories . . .
Book value, mfrs.' inven., finished goods . , 27
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
*23 Industrial materials prices
*1Q
ttnrlt nrirp^ Rflfl rnrnmnn ^tnrks
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
15 Profits per dollar of sales mfg.
18,36
18
18
18
*5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance . . .18,36
18
9,21,38
9,21,38,56
"21,38,63
21,38
21
22,38
22
22,38
Feb. '70
Apr. '71
Nov. '70 Sep.
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
*62
Labor cost cer unit of output rnfs • » »
B6. Money and Credit
98. Change in money supply and time deposits
33 Change in mortsase debt
*
* *
*113. Change in consumer installment debt
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
*41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
Tables
*54 Sales of retail stores
'69
'69 B3. Fixed Capitol Investment
:
'69 | *12 Index of net business formation
23,36
6,72
'69
23
6,72
23,36
6,72
*6. New orders, durable goods industries
'69
23
6,72
6,72
*1Q. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment ... 23,36
'69
6,72
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing* 24
6,72
24, New orders, producers' cap. goods indus . .24
6,73
24
9.
Constr.
contracts,
com.
and
indus
'69
6,73
24
'69
24,36
6,73
*29. New bldg. permits, private housing
'69
'69
25
6,73
96.
Unfilled
orders,
durable
goods
industries.
'69
6,73
97. Backlog of capital approp., manufacturing . 25
'69
25,39,40
7,73,79
*61. Business expend., new plant and equip . . .
'69
69. Machinery and equipment sales and
25
7,73
business construction expenditures
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
5,66
Bl. .Employment and Unemployment
*L Average workweek prod workers mf^
21. Avg. wkly. overtime hrs., prod, workers, mfg.
49 Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
Charts
Historical
Series
escriptions
data
(issue date) ;issue date)
B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
9HC
Current issue
(page numbers)
117
66.
*72,
*67.
118.
32
Municipal bond yields
33
Consumer installment debt
Com. and industrial loans outstanding ... 33,39
33,39
Bank rates on short-term "bus, loans
33
Mortgage yields, residential
B7. Composite Indexes
810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj . .34
811. 12 leading indicators, prior to reverse
35
trend adjustment
34
820 5 coincident indicators
Aug. '68#
34
830. 6 lagging indicators
Aug. '68
35
813. Marginal employment adjustments
35
814. Capital investment commitments
35
815. Inventory investment and purchasing
June '69
35
816. Profitability
35
817. Sensitive financial flows
7,66,74
6,78
6,78
6,78
6,73
6,78
6,78
6,78
'68
'68
'70 July '68
'70 Nov. '68
July '64
July '64
July '64
'70 July '64
'70
'70
'71
'70 July '64
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
113
Series Finding Guide-Continued
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Tables
Charts
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
c. ANTICIPATION:* AND INTENTIONS
Charts
Tables
Series
Historical
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS«Con.
Cl. Aggregate Series
61.
410,
412.
414
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
D4. Price Movements
Bus* expend, new plant and equip ...*,*.. 23,39,40 73,79
79
Manufacturers' sale;*, total
41
41
Mfrs.' inventories book value
79
79
41
Condition of mfrs ' inventories
420. Household income compared to year ago —
425, Probability of change, household income •••
435, Index of consumer suntiinent
41
79
Nov0 '68
Apr. '70
'Jan. '71 .Nov. '68
Nov. '68
Jan. '71
Jan. '71
Novs '68
Jan. '71
Nov. '68
42
42
42
42
79
79
79
79
'71
'71
June '70
Jan. '71
Jan.
Jan.
Nov. '68
Nov. '68
Nov. '68
Nov. '68
54,62
781 Consumer price index all items
54
782. Consumer price index food
783. Consumer price index commodities ...... 54
54
750.
58,.
751,
752.
Wholesale price index, all commodities . . .55
Wholesale price index mfd. goods ....... 29,55
Wholesale price index, proc. foods, feeds. . 53
55
Wholesale price index, farm products
a, 06
86
86
86
a, as
86,75
86
86
Sep. '70
Sop. '70
Bop. '70
Sop. '70
May
May
May
May
Sop. '70
Sop. '70
Sep. '70
Sep.
'70
June
June
June
June
'69
'09
'69
'69
"69
'69
'69
'69
E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
C2, Diffusion Indexes
C440.
D442,
0444
D446.
New orders, manufacturing
Net profits, manufacturing and trade
Net sales manufacturinc and trade
Number of employee;!, mfg, and trade
43
43
43
43
D450. Level of inventories, mfg. and trade
D462. Selling prices manufacturing
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade
B466 Selling prices retail trade
, 44
44
44
44
44
*
45
45
45
D61, Bus. expend., new plant and equip
D480, Freight carloadings
80
80
80
80
80
80
SO
80
80
8],
81
81
June
June
June
June
June
Juno
June
June
June
'70
' 70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
Apr. '70
Aug'. '70
June "70
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
'68
D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trade
500. Merchandise trade balance
502. Exports, excluding in liUiry aid
506. Export orders, dur. goods exc, motor
vehicles
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
46
,
8,B2
8,82
July '70
July '70
Fob.
46
8,82
8,82
8,82
47
8,83
Aug.
, 46
» 46
* 46
'70
June '70
July '70
May '69
May '69
Aug.
'68$
May '69
D2, Balance of Payments ami Components
520, U.S. bal. of pmts., liquidity bal, basis
522, U.S. bal. of pmts., official settlements
Aug.
Aug.
'70
'70
May '69
May '69
4
47
13,47
83
83
Aug.
Aug.
'70
'70
May '69
May '69
530 Liquid liabilities to foreigners
532. Liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign
official agencies
534, U,S, official reserve assets
535, Allocations of SDR's
252. Exports of goods and services
4
48
83
Aug.
'70
May '69
48
48
Aug.
Aug.
'70
'70
May '69
May '69
13,49
13,49
83
83
S3
83
83
Aug.
Aug.
'70
'70-
May '69
May '69
49
49
83
83
Aug. '70
Aug, '70
May '69
May '69
49
83
Aug.
'70
May '69
49
50
SO
83
84
84
Aug. '70
Sep. '70
Sep. '70
May '69
May '69
May '69
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted . . , . .
540. Investment income, military sales, and
541, Foreigner^ investment income, military
542. Income on U.S. Investmeits abroad
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad
544. Receipts from foreigners in U.S
548. Receipts, transportation and services
549. Payments, transportation and services
560
565
564.
570.
575.
Foreign direct invest ments in U.S
U S purchases of foieign securities
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
Govt grants and capital transactions
Banking and other capital transactions
50
50
SO
50
84
84
84
84
84
84
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
May
May
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
51
51
51
51
31
31
84
84
84
84
84
84
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Get.
Oct-
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
May
May
May
May
May
May
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
8,85
8,85
8,85
Aug. '70
Aug. '70
Aug. '70
Nov. '70
Dee.
'70
Dec.
'70
Dee.
'70
Dec.
'70
Apr. '71
. 50
., SO
.
8,83
D3. Federal Government Activities
600. Fed. balance, nat'l income and prod, acct* • . 52
601. fed. receipts, nat'l income and prod, acct . .52
602. Fed. expend., nat'l income and prod, acct. . . 52
621. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
647. New orders, defense products industries
625. Military contract awards in U,S
14,33
53
53
53
33
53
8,67,85
8,05
8,85
8,85
8,85
8 ; S5
#The "number" (or this series title was changed since the publication date shown.
114
Actual and Potential GNP
OflK
Artiiat r*MD in 1QKQ Hnllarc
206. Potential GNP in 1958 dollars
207. GNP gap (potential less actual)
. —
July '68#
July '68#
July '68#
Oet.
'69
Sep.'" '68$
56
56
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing. . . 57
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade . 57
852, Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
Hiirahtpc
853. Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
855. Ratio, nonagri cultural job openings
unfilled to persons unemployed » » .
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm .
856. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers . .
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers. .
857. Vacancy rate, total rental housing
E3. Diffusion Indexes
Dl, Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
06. New orders, durable goods industries
Dll. New capital appropriations, mfg
D34 Profits manufacturing
• **
D5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance. .
D41. Employees on nonagri. payrolls
D47, Industrial production
058. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
200 GNP in current dollars ...*..,.
Composite index of 5 coincident indicators.
Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
Sales of retail stores
*..
Personal income
55. Index of whsle. prices, indus. commodities
781. Index of consumer prices, all items
Oct.
'69
'69
07
5,87
Jan. '71
8,88
B,BB
Nov.
'70
Feb.
57
8,SS
Nov.
'70
Sop.
'68
57
8,80
Apr.
'70
Nov.
'68
58
8,08
AUR. '70
July '68
58
5B
58
8,80
8,60
8,80
Feb. '70
Apr. '71
Apr. '71
Juno '68
Juno ' 68
58
58
s, as
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
89,92
89,92
60
60
60
60
—
E5, Rotes of Change
820.
48.
54.
52.
'70
9,21,38,36 6,63,71,87 Doe.
May '69
83
47
525. Net capital movement, liquidity bal. basis. . 47
527. Net capital movements, official settlements
250. Balance on goods and services
'70
El,
6,88
'71
'71
Apr.
Apr.
June '68
Qtvt. '70
89
90
Apr. '71
AUR. '70
Apr. '71
90,93
90,94
90,94
Doe.
Jan.
Oet.
91,95
91,93
91,96
91,97
Oct. '70
'76
'71
'70
Kay '70
'71
May '60
Apr. '69
June '69
Juno '69
Jan.
Jan.
>V,i
Doe.
Doc.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
98
98
98
98
98
98
98
Sop,
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Awr.
Apr.
Apr.
'70
'71
'71
171
'71
«71
«71
May '69
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
99
(
Apr. 7Q
Doc. «69
Doe. "69
Doe. '69
Doe.
»(»9
DOG. '69
Doe.
'69
DOR. '69
Nov.
63
63
63
63
63
63
63
64
64
64
64
64
64
64
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
'71
i'a
'71
May '60
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
61
Oct. '69
Oet. '69
Nov. '60
Au#. '680
July '68
Mov. '68
Juno '69
May '69
F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Fl. Consumer Price Indexes
781. United States
133. Canada
132 United Kingdom
135. West Germany
136. France
138. Japan
137, Italy
F2. Industrial Production Indexes
47 United States
123
122
126
125
128.
Canada
United Kingdom
France
West Germany .
Japan
127. Italy
F3. Stock Price Indexes
19. United States
143 Canada ...
142 United Kingdom
146. France
145 West Germany
148. Japan
147. Italy
54,62
- 62
62
62
62
62
62
21,38,63
'7J,
'7,1,
'71
'71
.
...
'68
Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the six sections, series are listed in numerical order.
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes
only and do not reflect series relationships or order, "ffl" indicates
monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the
whole period except for series designated ty "EOM" (end of the
month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The alphabetic-numeric designations following the series titles indicate all charts and tables in which the series may be found. See the
table of contents for chart and table titles and Series Finding Guide
for page numbers. The series in section B preceded by an asterisk
(*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators, chart
B8. Unless otherwise indicated, all series which require seasonal
adjustment have been adjusted by their source.
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number and
are obtained from the same sources.
244. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential structures
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4)
245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all industries (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A4, B4)
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office .of
Business Economics
(A5, D2)
253. Imports of goods and services (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A5, D2)
260. Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A6)
A National Income and Product
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al, B2, B8, E5)
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics (Al, B2, B8, El, E5)
210. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Al)
215. Per capita gross national product in current dollars (Q). -•
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(Al)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau
of the Census
(Al)
220. National income in current dollars (Q). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
222. Personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
225. Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A2)
226. Per capita disposable personal income in current dollars (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2)
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1958 dollars (Q). ••
Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A2)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A3)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958 dollars (Q). Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A3)
262. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A6)
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6,D3)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(83)
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).
street, Inc.
274. Final sales, nondurable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q). -- Federal Tjade Commission and Securities
and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B5)
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable goods (Q).. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A7)
282. Proprietors' income (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A8)
*17. Index of price per unit of labor cost -- ratio, index of
wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to
seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees
(sum of wages, salaries, and supplements to wages and
salaries) per unit of output (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B5, B8)
284. Rental income of persons (Q).--Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(A8)
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (A8)
288. Net interest (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A8)
290. Gross saving -- private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
296. Capital consumption allowances, corporate and noncorporate
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods, in
current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A3)
298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(A9)
(A9)
Department of Labor,
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials
and supplies (M)'. -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
the Census
(B4)
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers, manufacturing (M). --Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate,
all industries (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B5)
"23. Index of industrial materials prices (M). - Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, B8, E3, E4)
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, producers' capital goods
industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B3)
(B4)
ion workers, manufacturing (M). - reau of Labor Statistics
(Bl, B8, E3, E4)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).
Bureau of Labor Statistics
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M). -- Standard and
Poor's Corporation
(B5, BB, 13, E4, F3)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
B Cyclical Indicators
240. Gross private domestic investment, total ]). -- Department of
(A4)
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(B6)
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)0 •- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(B5, B8)
234. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles, in current
dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable
equipment (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A4)
Dun and Brad-
280. Compensation of employees (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A8)
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A9)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, mm residential structures (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
'
(A4)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (Q). -The Conference Board
(B3,E3)
270. Final sales, durable goods (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A7)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods except
automobiles, in current dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(A3)
(A4)
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and McGraw-Hill Information
Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
thru May 1970 and by source agency thereafter.
(B3, B8)
*12. Index of net business formation (M). -- Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau
of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3, B8)
292. Personal saving (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(A9)
241. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential
(Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings, floor space (M).--McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(B3)
266. State and local government purchases of goods and services,
total (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A6)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in current
dollars (Q). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q). •- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(A3)
'5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M). -- Department of Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(Bl, E3, E4)
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries
(M). --Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)
8. Index of construction contracts, total value (M). -- McGrawHill Information Systems Company. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(B3)
Department of Labor,
(Bl)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(Bl)
4. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M). -- Department
of Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Bl, B8)
26. Buying policy - production materials, percent of companies
reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M). -* National
Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)
28. New private housing units started, total (M). - Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local building
permits (M). •- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8)
•31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories,
total (M). -• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
{84, B8)
Continued on reverse
115
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 115)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower
deliveries (M). « Purchasing Management A$sociation of
Chicago
(B4)
33. Net change in mortgage debit held by financial institutions and
life insurance companies (HI). •- Institute of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; Department of Housing
and Urban Development, Gcvernment National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; U.S.
Savings and Loan League: and Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census.
(B6)
37. Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of purchased materials (M). - - National Association of Purchasing
Management; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
<B4)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days and
over (EOM). -- American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(B6)
40. Unemployment rate, wirried males, spouse present (M). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Bl)
*41. Number of employees 01 ncnagricultural payrolls, establishment
survey (M). — Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(Bl,
B8, E3, E4)
42. Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M). •••• Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(81)
*43. Unemployment rate, total (I'M). - Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(Bl, B8)
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(Bl, B8)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M). -- Department of Labor, Manpower Administration
(Bl)
46. Index of.help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).-The Conference Board
(Bl)
*47 Index of industrial production (M). « Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, E3, E4, E5, F2)
48. Man-hours in nonagr (cultural establishments (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Lfibor Statistics
(61, E5)
49. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOM). -- Department of
Labor, Manpower Administiation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of the Census
.
(Bl)
*52. Personal income (M). •- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B2, B8, E5)
53. Wage and salary incorrie in mining, manufacturing, and construction (M). -- Department of Commerce, Office Of Business Economics
(82)
*54. Sales of retail stores (M), • Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(82, 88, E3t E4, E5)
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, E5)
*56. Manufacturing and traile sales (M). - Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the Census
(B2, BB)
57. Final sates (series 200 minus series 245) (Q). - Department of
Commerce, Office of Hushess Economics
(82)
58. Index of wholesale price:;, manufactured goods (M). - • Department of Labor, Bureaj of Labor Statistics
(B5, 04, E3, E4)
*61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics, and
the Securities and Exchange Commission
(83, 88, Cl, C2)
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturing ratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to indisx of industrial production, manufacturing
(M). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics,
and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book value all
manufacturing industries (EOM), — Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4J
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted net change
added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain
current figure
(B6)
*67. Bank rates on shor!!-term business loans, 35 cities (Q). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6, B8)
116
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinanciat corporations -• ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(B5)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)
*71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value (EOM). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and
Bureau of the Census
(B4, 88)
"72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting
large commercial banks (EOM). -- Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
(B6, B8)
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M). -- Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(86)
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrowings) (M). - Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(86)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (83)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ). -The Conference Board
(83)
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit
markets (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(86)
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M). -- Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(B6)
"113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M). - Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(66, 88)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills (M). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M). •- Treasury Department
(86)
116. Yield on new .issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M). -- First
National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department(B6)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M). -- The Bond
Buyer
(B6)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M). -- Department
of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(86)
*200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in section A.
*205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
245. Change in business inventories (GNP component) (Q). See
in section A.
810. Twelve leading indicators - reverse trend adjusted composite
index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31,
and 113) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(87)
811. Twelve leading indicators - composite index prior to reverse
trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16, 17, 19,
23, 29, 31, and 113) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B7)
813. Marginal employment adjustments -- leading composite index
(includes series 1, 26 3, and 5) (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B7)
814. Capital investment commitments -• leading composite index
(includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) (M). - Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(87)
15. Inventory investment and purchasing « leading composite
index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37) (M). - Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B7)
816. Profitability - leading composite index (includes series 16,
17, and 19) (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B7)
817. Sensitive financial flows - leading composite index (includes
series 33, 85,112, and 113) (M). - Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B7)
820. Five coincident indicators -- composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B7, E5)
830. Six lagging indicators -- composite index (includes series 44,
61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B7)
C Anticipations and Intentions
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (Q). See in section B.
410. Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q). - Department of Cominerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(01)
412. Manufacturers' inventories, total book value (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
414. Percent of total book value of inventories held by manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ), - Department of Commerce, Off ice
of Business Economics
(Cl)
416. Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective
operations over the next 12 months, less percent classifying
existing capacity as excessive'(EOQ). - Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(Cl)
420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago
(percent higher, lower, and unchanged) (Q), - Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
425. Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substantial
changes (increase, decrease, and increase less decrease) in
income of households (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Cl)
430. Number of new cars purchased by households (Q).-- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Cl)
435. Index of consumer sentiment (Q). -- University of Michigan,
Survey Research Center
(Cl)
D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q). -» Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q). * Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series nay not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
0450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (Q).-- Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. Ttits series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q). - Dun and Brad
street, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the source.) (C2)
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q). -- Dun and Bradstroet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q). - Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series nay not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
0466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q). -- Dun and Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(C2)
D480. Freight carloadings (Q). -- Association of American Railroads
(CZ)
480. Change in freight carloadings (Q). •• Association of American
railroads
(C2)
D Other Key Indicators
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M). See in
section B.
250. Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers under
military grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q). • • See in
section A.
252. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q).--See in section A.
253. Imports of goods and services:
(Q). - See in section A.
U.S. balance of payments
264. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national
defense (Q). -- See in section A.
500. Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series 512) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(01)
502. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M). - Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued from page 116)
506. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (series
292 divided by series 224) (Q). •• Department of Commerce,
Office of Business Economics
(E2)
565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled (series 49) to
number of persons unemployed (IB).-- Department of Labor.
Manpower Administration and Bureau of Labor Statistics; and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
512. General imports, total (M). •• Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(Dl)
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
856. Real average hourly earnings of production workers in manufacturing, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics
(E2)
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing -- unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q). -- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
520. U.S. balance of payments on liquidity balance basis (change in
U.S. official reserve assets and change in liquid liabilities to
all foreigners) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
600. Federal Government surplus or deficit, national income and
product accounts (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(03)
858. Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm (Q). -Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
508. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M). -McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
(Dl)
522. U.S. balance of payments on official settlements, basis (change
in U.S. official reserve assets, and change in liquid and
tertain nonliquid liabilities to foreign monetary official
agencies) (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
601. Federal Government receipts, national income and product
accounts (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D3)
602. Federal expenditures, national income and product accounts
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
525. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers -- except
military grants -- and errors and omission;;) on liquidity
balance basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). - - Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
527. Net capital movements (plus unilateral transfers •- except
military grants -- and errors and omissions) on official settlements basis: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -•• Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
616. Defense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding
military assistance (M). -- Department of Defense, Fiscal
Analysts Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)
621. Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M). -Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
(D3)
530. Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all foreigners,
total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economic!;
(D2)
625. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M). -- Department of Defense, Directorate for
Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census
(D3)
532. Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding military
grants) to foreign official agencies, total outstanding: U.S.
balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
(D2)
534. U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ). -- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(02)
535.. Allocations to the U.S. of Special Drawing Rights: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(D2)
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
540. U.S. investment income, military sales, and other services
exports, excluding military grants: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
541. Foreigners1 investment income, military expenditures and other
services imports: U.S. balance of payments (Q), - Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
546. Military sates to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
547. U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). •• Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
(D2)
548. Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
549. Payments for transportation and other services: U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
560. Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance of payments (Q). -- Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
(D2)
561. U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance oi payments (Q). •Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics (D2)
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents) on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1957-59 dollars (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)
(D3)
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index. Diffusion
indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the same number
and are obtained from the same sources. See section B for titles
and sources of Dl, 05, D6, Dll, D19, D23, D41, D47, D54, D58, D61,
and section C for D440, D442, D444, D446, D450, 0460, D462, D464,
D466, and D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q). -- First National City Bank
of New York; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)
F International Comparisons
647. New orders, defense products industries (M). -- Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).
See in section B.
648. New orders, defense products (M). -- Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D3)
750. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M). -- Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
47. United States, index of industrial production (M). See in
section B.
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M). -Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
(F2)
751. Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds (M). - Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
752. Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M). -- Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
781. Index of consumer prices (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics,
(D4, E5, Fl)
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M) -- Central
Statistical Office (London)
(F2)
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M). -- Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F2)
782. Index of consumer prices, food (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)
783. Index of consumer prices, commodities less food (M). -- Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (rVT). -- Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal adjustment by
OECD
(F2)
126. France, index of industrial production (M). -- Institut National
dela Statistiqueetdes Etudes Economiques(Paris)
(F2)
784. Index of consumer prices, services (M). -- Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(04)
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M). -- Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(F2)
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M). -- Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)
E Analytical Measures
47. Index of industrial production (M). See in section B.
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). See in section B.
52. Personal income (M). See in section B.
54. Sales of retail stores (M). See in section B.
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M). See in
section B.
200. GNP in current dollars (Q), See in section A.
205. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in section A.
206. Potential level of gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
207. Gap -~ the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual GNP
(Series 205) (Q). •- Council of Economic Advisers
(El)
781. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).
See in section D.
820. Five coincident indicators -- composite index (includes series
41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B.
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q). -- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce,
and McGraw-Hill Economics Department
(E2)
851. Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56), manufacturing and trade total (EOM). - Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
(E2)
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments, manufacturers'
durable goods (EOM). -- Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (M). •- Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal
Reserve index of industrial production.)
(E2)
132. United Kingdom, index of consumeir prices (M). -- Ministry of
Labour (London)
(Fl)
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(Fl)
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M). -- Statist!sches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(Fl)
136. France, index of consumer prices (M). -- In si tut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(Fl)
137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di
Statistica(Rome)
(Fl)
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M). -- Office of the Prime
Minister (Tokyo)
(Fl)
142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M). -- The Financial
Times (London)
(F3)
143. Canada, index of stock prices (M). -- Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)
145, West Germany, index of stock prices (M). -- Statistisches
Bundesamt(Wiesbaden)
(F3)
146. France, index of stock prices (M). -- Institut National de la
Statistique etdes Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)
147. Italy, index of stock prices (M). -- Istituto Centrale di Statistica(Rome)
(F3)
148, Japan, index of stock prices (M). -• Tokyo Stock Exchange
(Tokyo)
(F3)
781. United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in section D.
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