Full text of Business Conditions Digest : March 1972

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MARCH

1972

DATA THROUGH FEBRUARY

i UNITED STATES
EPARTMENT OF
COMMERCE
OBLIGATION

\

U.S. DEPARTMENT
OF COMMERCE
Social and Economic
Statistics Administration
Bureau of
Economic Analysis



BUSINESS
CONDITIONS
DIGEST

This report was prepared In the Statistical Indicators
Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication

areMorton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. Tunstall-Collection and compilation of
basic data. (Telephone 440-1596)
Editorial assistance is provided by Maureen Padgett of
the Publications Services Division, Social and
Economic Statistics Administration.
The cooperation of various government and private
agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. The agencies furnishing data are indicated in
the list of series and sources at the back of this
report.

U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
James T. Lynn, Under Secretary
Harold C. Passer, Assistant Secretary for Economic Affairs
and Administrator,

This publication is prepared under the general
guidance of a technical committee established by the
Office of Management and Budget. The committee
consists of the following persons:

Social and Economic Statistics Administration

Julius Shiskin, Chairman
Office of Management and Budget
Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisors,
Executive Office of the President
George Hay Brown, Bureau of the Census, Department of Commerce
George Jaszi, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce
Geoffrey H. Moore, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Department of Labor
Kenneth Williams, Federal Reserve Board

NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PROD UCT accoun ts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
personal, business, foreign, and government
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.

CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Morris R. Goldman, Deputy Director
Feliks Tamm, Editor

ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.

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This monthly report brings together many of the economic
time series found most useful by business analysts and
forecasters. Its predecessor, Business Cycle Developments,
emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of
business conditions and was based largely on the list of
leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Some other approaches commonly used by students of
economic conditions include econometric models and
anticipations and intentions data. The econometric model
concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships
among consumption, private investment, government, and
various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of
businessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of the
content of Business Cycle Developments has been retained in
this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of
other approaches have been added to make it more generally
useful to those concerned with an evaluation of current
business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section
of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not to
be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis or any other government agency of any
particular approach to economic analysis. This report is
intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report have
been published by their source agencies. A series finding
guide, as well as a complete list of series titles and data
sources, is shown at the back of this report.

Documents (address below), enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payaon
to the Superintendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington
D.C. 20402, or to any U.S. Department of Commerce field office.

New Features and Changes for This Issue

BCD

iii

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
MARCH 1972
Data Through February
Series ESI No. 72-3

1
1
1

Section A. National Income and Product

1

Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions

2
3

Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures

3
3

Section F. International Comparisons
How to Read Charts
How to Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

3
4
4
5

PART I. CHARTS

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11

Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

20
23
25
28
30
33

Selected Indicators by Timing
B7
B8

Composite Indexes
NBER Short List




43

Diffusion Indexes

46

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components ...

48
49

Federal Government Activities

54

Price Movements

56

Wages and Productivity

58

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6

a

D1
D2
D3
D4
D5

Aggregate Series

37
39

Actual and Potential Gross National Product ...
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Rates of Change

60
61
62
64

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production

65
66

Stock Prices

67

PART II. TABLES

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11

Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income

68
68
69
69
70
70
70
70
71
71
72

Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes

83
84

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
85
Balance of Payments and Major Components ... 86
Federal Government Activities
88
Price Movements
89
Wages and Productivity
91

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
B2
B3
64
B5
B6
B7

PART

E1
E2

Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
Selected Indicators by Tinning

73
75
76
77
78
SO

Composite Indexes

82

E3
E4

Actual and Potential GNP
Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components

93
94
95
97

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices

101
101
102

APPENDIXES




A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
QCD and Related Measures of Variability
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See Index-Series Finding Guide)
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970 (See Feb. 1972 issue)
F. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators (See Feb. 1972 issue)
G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series

103
106
109
110

112
115
118

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

A limited number of

Changes in this issue are as follows:

changes are made from
time to time to Incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly avail-

1. Nev seasonal adjustment factors for 18 series have been computed
by the X-U version of Census Seasonal Adjustment Method II. These
factors are shoim through June 1972 in appendix B for all except 5
(series 9, 10, 12, 17, and 62) of these series. (See items 2 and 4
below for additional information regarding revisions for series 17,
62, 72, and 112.) The table belov shovs the beginning month (or
quarter) for application of the new seasonal factors to each series.

able time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc* Changes may

Series
number

Beginning month
for new factor

Series
number

Beginning month
for new factor

5
9
10
12
13
15
17
33
37

January 1971
December 1971
October 1970
August 1970
October 1971
1st quarter 1969
May 1969
January 1970
December 1971

39
62
72
112
508
616
621
625
D34

April 1970
May 1969
January 1972
January 1972
January 1970
October 1971
November 1970
August 1971
1st quarter 1971

2. The series on Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. (series 62)
is the ratio of two seasonally adjusted component series. For
about the past 3 years this ratio has exhibited a pattern of seasonal
behavior which does not appear in either of its components. Seasonal
adjustment factors have been developed to remove this residual pattern
from the ratio. Although readjusting the ratio of adjusted components
is an unorthodox procedure, the unavailability of one of the components
in unadjusted form makes this necessary0 The series will be watched
carefully and the readjustment discontinued if it appears that the
pattern is not continuing. Series 17, Price per unit of labor cost,
is the ratio of series 62 and a component of the wholesale price index0
It, too, is being readjusted. The adjustment factors are being applied
to both series starting with May 1969.
(Continued on page iv.)
The April issue -of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for release
on April 28.



111

result In revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes In placement of
series In relation to
other series, changes
In composition of
Indexes, etc*

3. The series on Number of job vacancies, mfg. (series 50) has been
revised for the period prior to July 1971 lay the source agency. This
revision reflects current benchmark employment levels and data are comparable to those for months beginning with August 1971. Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the U.S. Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of Industry and Employment
Statistics.
4<> Basic data for the series on Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (series 72 and 112), have been
revised by the source agency for the period beginning January 1971. These
revisions reflect that agency1s annual updating of these statistics.
Further information concerning this revision may be obtained from the Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Banking Section.
5o Basic data for the series on Change in money supply plus time deposits
at banks and nonbank institutions — M3 (series 103) have been revised from
the beginning date of the series (January 1964) by the source agency. This
revision reflects new benchmark data and seasonal factor revisions for deposits at mutual savings banks and savings and loan shares. The benchmark
revisions affect the data for 1969 through 1971, and seasonal factors were
revised back to 1964. Further information concerning these revisions may
be obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
Banking Section.
6. Appendix C includes historical data for series 55a, b, and c and
series 78la, b, and c.




IV

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.

National Income and Product
Cyciicai indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons

Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 1950 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, most
charts contain shading which indicates
periods of recession in general business
activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, some issues contain a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.

Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for series which contain considerable variation
due to the number of working or trading
days in each month. As used in this report,
the term "seasonal adjustment" includes
trading-day and holiday adjustments where
they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here
on a seasonally adjusted basis.

MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. MCD



moving averages (that is, moving averages
of the period equal to MCD) tend to have
about the same degree of smoothness for
all series. Thus, a 5-term moving average
of a series with an MCD of 5 will show its
cyclical movements about as clearly as the
seasonally adjusted data for a series with
an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.

Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached
its cyclical high or low levels. As a matter
of general practice, neither new reference
turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered on the charts until
after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the
shaded area have been designated. This
policy is followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading
of a current recession without including
part of a new expansion.

SECTION A

NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis ( B E A ) summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.
Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.
Persona/ consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-

cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports.
Exports include receipts from domestic
output sold abroad, transportation, travel,
other services, fees and royalties and income on investments in foreign areas.
Imports include purchases of foreign
goods, payments for transportation, travel
and other services, military expenditures
as well as payments of income on foreign
investments in the United States. More
detail on U.S. balance of payments is provided in Section D.
Government purchases of goods and services includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section
A. Other major aggregates taken from the
national income and product accounts are
described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.
Persona/ income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.
Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an

1

accounting period. It is the total of personal
saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption
allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated.
The implicit price deflator (computed by
dividing the current-dollar data by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP is also
shown.
SECTION B

CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a

tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73
cyclical indicators is the basis for this section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses tha same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 78 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators
are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.

The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists of
26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators.
In addition, there are five indexes based on
leading indicators which have been
grouped by economic process. These indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators
has been "reverse trend adjusted" so that
its long-run trend parallels that
of
the coincident index. This facilitates

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
1. EMPLOYMENT
AND

UNEMPLOYMENT
(14 series)

Marginal employment
adjustments
( 5 series)
LEADING INDICATORS
(40 series)

II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(9 series)

III. FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)

IV. INVENTORIES

Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment
commitments
(8 series)

Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)

AND

INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(13 series)

VI. MONEY
AND CREDIT
(18 series)

Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (5 series)

Flows of money
and credit
(7 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)

Cash flows (2 series)

Job vacancies
(2 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT Comprehensive
employment
INDICATORS
(3 series)
(26 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)

Long-duration
unemployment
(I series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)




Comprehensive
Backlog of investment
production
commitments
(3 series)
(2 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 series)
Comprehensive
consumption
and trade (4 series)

Investment
expenditures
(2 series)

Inventories
(2 series)

Comprehensive
wholesale
prices
(2 series)

Bank reserves
(1 series)
Money market interest
rates
(4 series)

Unit labor costs
(2 series)

Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans
and mortgages
(2 series)

comparisons among the leading, coincident,
and lagging indexes and tends to shorten the
leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C

ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents'
anticipations Cwhat they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments.
In some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.
SECTION D

OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com


prehensive selection. In general, these series reflect processes which are not direct
measures of economic activity but which
do have a significant bearing on business
conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks).* Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
Because these data are influenced by
foreign as well as domestic conditions,
the cyclical shading has been omitted
from the balance-of-payments charts.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures
and their balance, and selected Federal defense activities. The receipts and expenditures data are from the national income and
product accounts, but are not shown in
section A of this report. The defense series
included are only a few of the many available. For a more comprehensive picture of
defense activities, see Defense Indicators,
a monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis
publication.
The price movements series consist of
consumer and wholesale price indexes and
their major components. Additional data
on prices and costs are shown in several
other sections.

SECTION E

ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic variables (for example, the series on labor cost

per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected
group of economic series. Percent changes
are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or
for 1-quarter spans.

SECTION F

INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS
Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
which relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are compared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.

HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle Indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) asdesignated by NBER.

Basic Data
(May) (F«b.J
P T

Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.

Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)

Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
mon
th f°r which data are plotted.
("6" - June)
-| .Roman number indicates latest
^/quarter for which data are
/
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.

Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points in
dicates quarterly data.

Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.

Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted iy2, 2,
or 2l/2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the "Index—Series Finding Guide" in the back of the book where series are arranged into six
sections and various subsections. Also, in the list of 'Titles and Sources of Series" which follows the Finding Guide, series are
listed in numerical order within each of the six sections, and the charts and tables in which they appear are indicated.



Basic data1
Series title

Unit
of
measure

1969

1970

1971

Percent change

3dQ

4th Q

IstQ

2dQ

1970

1970

1971

1971

Td'Q
1971

4th Q
1971

IstQ
to
2dQ

2dQ
to
3dQ

3dQ
to
4th Q

1971

1971

1971

Series number |

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators

A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1. Gross National Product
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars

200.
205.
210.
215.
217.

Ann.rate,bil.dol.
do
1958=100
Ann. rate, dol...
do

A2. National and Personal Income
Ann.rate,bil.dol.
National income, current dollars
do
Personal income current dollars
do
Disposable personal income, current dol . . .
do
Disposable personal income 1958 dol
Per capita disposable personal income,
Ann. rate, dol...
227. Per capita disposable personal income,
do
1958 dollars

220.
222.
224
225
226.

929.1
724.7
128.2
4f585
3»576

974,1 1046.8
720.0 739.4
135.3
141.6
4i755 5 1057
3»515 3t57l

983,5
723,3
136.0
4»795
3t526

988.4 1020,8 1040.0 1053,4 1072.9
729.7 735.8
715.9
740.7 751.3
138.1
139.9
142.8
141.3
142.2
4i804 4 f 9 4 9 5f030 5.082 5il63
3»480 3»538 3»559 3»573 3i615

763,7
750,3
634.2
513.5

795.9
803.6
687.8
531.5

851.1
857.0
741.3
550.6

802.2
809.8
696.2
536,0

802,1
816.7
701.5
532.5

831*7
833.5
722.0
542.7

3»130

3»358

3t58l

3t395

3»410

3t500

2t535

2t595

2»660

2»613

2»588

2t63i

579.6
469.3

615.8
475.9

89.9
58.2
31.7

662.1
491.8
100.5

620.9
477.9

88.6
60.7
28.0

247.6
242.1

137.8

847.3
853,4
739.6
550.5

1.9
0.8
1*0
1*6
0*6

1.3
0.7
0.6
1,0
0,4

1.9
1,4
0.4
1.6
1.2

200
205
210
215
217

0.9
1.3
1.2
0.5

1.8
1.4

220
222
224
225

855.2
864.6
748.5
553.2

870.3
876.7
755*0
556. 1

1.9
2*4
2.4
1.4

3i577

3t6ll

3 1 633

2*2

1.0

0.6

226

2»663

2 f 669

2i676

1*2

0.2

0.3

227

668.8
494.3
102.8

677.2
498.9
103.6

66.0
36.8

67.5
36.1

1.9
0*9
2.6
3.2
1*5
1-7
2.0

1.7
1.0
3.7
2.0
7.0
0.9
1.9

1.3
0.9
0.8
2.3

230
231
232
233
234
236
237

0.9*

0.5

A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
Ann.rate,bil.dol.
Total, current dollars
do
Total, 1958 dollars
do
Durable goods, current dollars.
do
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars. .
do
Automobiles, current dollars
do
Nondurable goods, current dollars
do
Services, current dollars

230.
231.
232.
233.
234.
236
237.

624.7
474,2

644.9
484.8

657.4
489,4

65.2
35.3

90.4
60.8
29.6

84,9
61.4
23.5

96.6
62.7
33.9

99.1
64.7
34.4

264.7
262.5

278,6
282.9

265.5
265.0

270,9
268,9

273.2
275.0

277,8
280,5

280.2
285.8

283*3
290.3

135.3
102*1

151.6
1,08.7

138.6
104.8

137,3
100,8

143.3
104.7

152.9
108.3

150.8
109.3

159.4
112.6

36.8
65.4
30.4

38.2
70.5
40.6

37.3
67.5
28.7

37.1
63.7
32.8

36.7
68.1
35.4

38.5
69.8
40.0

38.7
70.6
42.7

39.0
73.6
44.4

-1.9

1.1
1.6

A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment

240
241
242.
243.
244.
245

Gross private domestic investment, total. . .
Fixed investment, total nonresidential ....
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures.
Fixed investment, producers' dur. equip.. . .
Fixed investment, residential structures. . ,
Chance in business inventories total 2

do
do
do
do
do
do

98.6
34.5
64.1
31.8

7.4

2.8

2.0

3.6
62*9

6.7
3.4
4.9
2*5
13-0

-1.4

0.9
0.5
1.1
6.8

5.7
3.0
0.8
4.2
4.0

240
241
242
243
244
245

AS. Foreign Trade

250 Net exports of goods and services2
252. Exports
253. Imports

do
do
do

55.6
53.6

.0

4.0

2.7

4.7

0.1

0.0

59.3

65.3
65.3

63.7
59.7

63.2
60.5

66.2
61.5

66.5
66.4

68.2
68.2

-4.6
60.4
65.0

•4.6

0.5
8.0

-0.1

2.6
2.7

-4.6

-11.4
-4.7

250
252
253

A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services

260.
262.
264.
266.

Total
Federal
National defense
State and local

A7. Final Sales and Inventories
270. Final sales durable goods
271. Change in business inventories, durable
goods2
274. Final sates, nondurable goods
275. Change in business
inventories, nondurable goods2

280
282.
284.
286.
288

A8. Notional Income Components
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corp. profits and inventory valuation adj . .
Net interest

A9. Saving
290. Gross saving, total
292 Persona 1 saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296 Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit, total2

do
do
do .....
do

209.7

219.4

233*0

220.1

223.7

227.9

229.6

233.8

99,2
78.8

97.2
75.4

97.6
71.4

96.1
74.2

95.9
73.2

96.4
72.6

96.0
71.4

97.6
70.2

110.8

122.2

135.5

124.0

127.9

131.6

133.6

136.2

140.5

do

180.9

180.8

193.7

184.9

173.1

189.4

190.6

196.4

198.4

do
do

4.5
269.0

-0.6

4.7
284.9

-3,4

2.3
295.5

-1.8

290,9

3.5
293.1

-2.5

284.7

0.4
298.3

301.0

303.6

0*8

do

2.9

3.4

1.9

0.4

7.1

2.3

1.3

4.3

2.7

do. ...
do
do
do
do

565.5

601.9

641.9

606.5

609.3

627.3

638.0

645.6

656.6

67.0
22.6
78.6
29.9

66.9
23.3
70.8
33.0

68.3
24.3
80.7
35.6

66.0
23.4
73.0
33.4

65.9
23.7
69.0
34.2

66.4
23.8
79.5
34.8

67.2
24.2
82,5
35,4

69.2
24.5
80.0
35.9

70.5
24.6
82.2
36.4

1.7
1.2
1.7
3.8
1.7

do
do

141.0

140.3

142.6

138.3

149.1

154.5

151.8

157.3

37.9

54.1

57,4

58.5

58.6

63.6

61.0

59.0

15,7

18.0
93.9

16.7
96.2

20.5
98.7

do
.. .. do.
.. . do..

NA
60.5

NA

-0.4

240.8
100.3
71.4

11.7
87.6

95.2

12.2
88.2

11,7
89,8

92.0

-13.1

-20.3

-15.2

-21.7

-17.1

-20,9

-22.2

-20.8

718.2
6.4

717.7
2.3

737.3
2.1

719,4
3,9

712,8
3.1

727.2
2.5

731.7
4.1

741.2

748.9
2.4

80.1
23.1
35.0

78.6
21.3
28.3

79.3
27.0
36,1

80,1
20,0
31,6

75.5
22.6
19.6

77.7
24.1
36.8

79.1
26.7
34,7

-0.5
78.9
28.3
37.5

do

145.6

139.4

139*2

138.2

138.3

137.6

137,0

do

3.2

38,3

51,6

39.0

54.5

48.8

50.9

14.5
81.1

.

7.4

0.7
-0.4
-1.7

1«5

0.6
•1.2

3.6
8.5
14.6

2*1
-3.8

1.8
1.7
-1.7

1.9

3.0
-4.8

1.9
-1.0

1,2
3.0
1,2
-3.0

1,4

3.0
2.8
1.7
3.2

1.0

270

0.7
0.9

271
274

3.0

275

1.7
1.9
0.4
2.8
1.4

280
282
284
286
288

3.6

290
292

-1.7
-4.1

-3.3

-7.2

22.8

2.4
-1*3

260
262
264
266

2.6
1.4

294
296
298

A10. Real GNP (1958 dollars)
273.
246.
247.
248.
249.
261.

Final sales 1958 dollars.
Change in bus inventories 1958 dollars
Fixed invest., nonresidential, 1958 dollars.
Fixed invest., residential struc., 1958 dol .
Gross auto product 1958 dollars
Govt. purchases of goods and services,
total 1958 dollars.

. ... do
do .
do
do
do

0-6
1.6
1.8

1.3
-4.6
-0.3

81.5
29.0
35.2

10*8
-5.7

6,0
8.1

139.6

142.6

-0.4

1.9

54.4

52.2

1.0
2.9
3.3
2.5
-6.1

2.1

273
246
247
248
249
261

El. Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP gap (potential less actual)2 1958 dol.




2.1

3.5

-2.2

207

Basic data1
Unit
of
measure

Series title

Percent change
Dec.

1970

1971

2dO

3dO

4th 0

1971

1971

1971

to

Feb.
1972

Jan.
1972

Dec.
1971

Jan.
1972

Jan.

to
Feb.
1972

2dQ
to
3dQ

3dQ
to
4th Q

1971

1971

Series number

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Compos! tt Indexes

810. 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adj.3.

1967=100
do
do
do

115.0
120.3
113.8
130.9

do
do
do
do
do

93.2

94.0

94.2

93.2

94.8

106.5
103.2
98.4

112.2
102.1
100.1
105.4

111.0
102.3
100.7
106.2

113.1
101.9
100.8
109.3

115.5
101.4
101.4
104.8

39.8

39.9

39.9

39.8

40.1

40.3

LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS

815. Inventory investment and purchasing ....
816 Profitability

94.1

126.1
123.9
115.1
125.0

125.1
123.8
115.2
123.8

127.6
124.3
115.1
125.5

131.3
126.2
116.8
126.1

132.7
127.0
117.5
126.8

134.0
129.2
119.5
127.9

134.7
130.4
120.1
128.9

1.0
1.7
1.7
0.9

95.7

97.3

116.1
102.3
102.4
105.1

117.2
104.3
103.8
107.7

NA
115.4
104.2
104.2
NA

1.7
0.9
2.0
1.4
2.5

40.0

40.4

0-5
0.9
0.5
0.8

2.0
0.4
-0.1

1.4

NA

-1.1

-1.5
-0.1

-0.4

0.4
NA

1.9
0.1
2.9

2.9
1.5
1.5
0.5

810
820
825
830

1.7
2.1

813
814
815
816
817

-0.5

0*6
-4.1

Bl. Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS

Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg. • . Hours
21. Avg. weekly overtime hours, production

do
Per 100 employ..

*5. Avg. weekly initial claims, State 4
unemployment insurance (inverted ) . .
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted4) 2. . Per 100 employ. .

3.0
4.0

2.9
3.9

2.9
3.8

2.9
3.9

3.0
3.9

3.1
3.9

2.9
4.3

3.1
NA

296
1.8

292
1.6

290
1.5

301
1,7

288
1.4

270
1.4

261
1.3

257
NA

132
92

88
80

92
80

98
83

82
82

78
85

87
85

NA
88

138.1

137.9

137.9

137.7

138.7

139.2

139.6

140.4

70.6
75.2

70.7
75.7

70.7
75.3

70.6
75.8

71.0
76.6

71.2
76.7

71.6
77.2

71.7
72.3

-0.7

1.0

-0.2

0*4

0.2
NA

3.3
0.1

1-5
NA

-0.3

0.0
0.1
-3.8
-0.2

0.8

1

0.1
0.0

21
2

4.3
0.3

5
3

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Job Vacancies:
50 Number of iob vacancies mfs. ^^
46. Help-wanted advertising

••

Thousands
1967=100

Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural
establishments.

Ann. rate, billion
man-hours
Millions
do
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities. . .

Comprehensive Unemployment:
»43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted*)2 . . . Percent
45. Avg. weekly insured
unemployment
do
rate (inverted4) 2
40. Unemployment rate, married males
do

o.o

NA
3.5

0.3
0.6
0.7

0*6
0.1

11.5

-6.3

6.5
3.8

-16.3
-1.2

50
46

0.7

0.7
0.6
1.1

48
41
42

0.1

43

-0.1
-0.1

5.0

6.0

6.0

6.0

5.9

6.0

5.9

5.7

0.1

0.2

0.0

3.5

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.1

3.8

3.5

3.5

0.3

0*0

0.0

0.1

45

2.6

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.0

2.8

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.0

40

0.8

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.5

0.1

0.0

44

974,1 1046.8 1040.0 1053.4 1072.9
720.0 739.4 735.8 740.7 751.3
106.8
NA
105.9
107.0
106.7

107.6

108.2

109.0

0.6

0.7

1.9
1.4
1.0

200
205
47

883.9
208.1

892.0
209.9

896.9
211.0

0.9
0.9

0.5
0.5

1.3
0.0

1.4
1.7

52
53

NA

0.7
1.9
2.6
1.9

1.0
1.5
1.8
1.4

56
57
54
59

NA
NA

1.9
2.6

3.0
3.9

12
13

-2*8
-6.1

3.6
2.0
2.2

1.1

LAGGING INDICATORS

Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and

do

-0.1

-0.1

B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Comprehensive Production:
*200 GNP in current dollars

••

*47. Industrial production

•• Ann.rate.bil.dol. .
do
1967=100

Comprehensive Income:
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr ..
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:

Ann.rate.bil.dol..
do
do
do
do
do

803.6
197.6

857.0
202.3

853.4
202.1

864.6
202.2

876.7
205.6

1.3
0.7

It 276 1»371 It 372 It 382 It 396
971.3 1044.5 1035.4 1054.6 1070.4
375.1 408.3 403.6 414.2
421.7
347.7 344.3 351.0 356.0
330.7

It 404

It 448

NA

3*1

418.8
352.5

419.5
352.8

418.8
350.2

0.2
0.1

108.1
266.0

111.2
288.0

110*2
286.5

112.3
294.0

115.7
305.6

115.6
306.3

114.8
297.4

NA
NA

346.Q
126

376.3
145

366.0
150

379.0
153

383.3
151

385.7
160

409.3
155

87.9
25.4
69.5

94.8
23.1
76.7

92-4
21.8
72.4

94.4
24.3
76.5

98.6
23.5
80.8

98.3

421.2
165
113.3

98.2

15.3

-13.3

82.1

97.3

85.8

18.5

-11.8

766
It 441
118.3

734
2t05l
165.2

724
2tQ02
158.2

745
2tll3
174.0

789
2t24l
187.5

800
2t457
200.9

716
2t471
184.5

801
2t678
185.1

-10.5
0*6

11.9

77.48
21*06

75.06
19.34

74.75
19.73

74.36
19.71

75.06
19.34

75.06

76.56

76.88

2.0

-0.2
-0.7

-0.8

B3. Fixed Capital Investment
LEADING INDICATORS

Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12. Index of net business formation

1967=100
Ann. rate, thous. .

New Investment Commitments:
*6. New orders, durable goods industries. . . .Ann.rate.bil.dol..
1967=100
8. Construction contracts, total value
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment. . . Ann.rate.bil.dol..
do
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing
do
24. New orders, producers' cap. goods indus .
Ann. rate, mil.sq.
9. Construction contracts, commercial
ft. floor space ..
and industrial buildings.
28. New private housing units started, total . . Ann. rate, thous. .
1967=100
•29. New bldg. permits, private housing.

-0.7
-2*9

9.2
3.1

5.7

5.6

6
8
10
11
24

2.9
5.5

5.9
6.1
7.8

9
28
29

0.9

96
97

11.5

-8.2

8.4
0-3

10.0

-1.3

4.4
-3.3

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Backlog of Investment Commitments:
9
Bil.dol.,EOP...
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
do
97. Backlog of caoital aooroo.. mfg.9




0.4

-0.5
-0.1

-1.9

Basic data1
Unit
of
measure

Series title

Percent change
Jan.

Dec.
1970

1971

2dO

3dQ

4th 0

1971

1971

1971

Dec.
1971

Feb.
1972

Jan.
1972

to

to

Jan.
1972

Feb.
1972

2dQ
to
3dQ

3dQ
to
4th Q

1971

1971

Series number 1

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B3. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS

Investment Expenditures:
*61. Business expend., new plant and equip • • Ann. rate, bil. dol. . 79.74
69. Machinery and equipment sales and
do
business construction expenditures • • • •
87.52

81.22

81.61

80.75

93.16

91.45

95.01

2.8

2.2

4.6

7.2

6.3

7.5

83.18
96.20

-1.1
98.20 104.38

NA

6.3

NA

3.9

3.0

61

1.3

69

3.6

245

B4. Inventories and Inventor/ Investment
LEADING INDICATORS

Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in business inventories, all
industries2.
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing

Ann. rate, billion
dollars

37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
Percent
Ann. rate, billion
dollars

20. Change in book value, manufacturers'
inventories of materials, supplies2.
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer2 <§).... Percent
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
25. Change in unfilled
orders, durable goods
industries2.

do
Ann. rate, billion
dollars

-1.2

6.1

50

2.4
4.1

-5.8

6.4

5.4

NA

46

50

57

0.8

0.5

3.4

55

54

57

55

49

45

53

51

48

52

48

50

51

52

-1.6

43

49

49

52

1.0

1.7

0.3

NA

NA

-1.0

0

3
NA

-1.4

-1.4

-7
-5.0

31

-2.0

-7

37

2.6

20

55

8

2

-2

f6

26

52

1

0

-4

2

32

4.3

25

0.6

71

-6.9

-2.4

-17.2

-1.5

2.8

3.4

18.4

3.5

15.0

-14.9

15.7

LAGGING INDICATORS

Inventories:
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories5. . Bil. dol., EOP...
65. Book value, manufacturers' inventories
do

173.6

179.9

177.4

178.9

179.9

179.9

180.4

NA

34.11

34.30

34.31

34.21

34.30

34.30

34.16

NA

113.9

107.1

108.3

106.1

107.0

106.8

110.7

113.0

83.2

98.3

101.5

98.6

96.4

99.2

103.3

105.2

41.2
31.8

47.4
35.1

47.8
35.3

48.2
35.3

49.8
36.3

0.3

NA

0.8

NA

-0.3

0.3

65

3.7

2*1

-2.0

0.8

23

4.1

1*8

-2.9

-0.4

B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS

Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices®

1967-100

Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks © . . .1941-43=10
.
Prof its and Prof it Margins:
•16. Corporate profits, after taxes, curr. dot . . Ann. rate, bil. dol. .
do
18. Corporate profits, after taxes, 1958 dol . .
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
Percent
15. Profits(after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.2 Cents
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
1967=100
34. Net cash flow, corp., curr. dol
Ann.rate.bil.dol. .
35. Net cash flow corp 1958 dol
do

8.4
4.0

9.0
NA

8.9
4.3

9.3
4.2

0.8
0.0

9.2
NA

97.0
72.4
55.7

97.6
84.0
61*3

97.6
83.3
60.9

97.8
85.2
61.5

98.1

110.0
110.2

114.0
113.8

113.6
113.4

114.9
114.7

115.1
114.7

0.4
98.2

98.1

0.1

115.3
115.1

115.9
115.7

116.5
116.5

0.5
0.5

-0.1

88.9
64.4

3.3
2.8

19

16
18

0.2
2.3
1.0

NA
0.3
4.3
4.7

22
15
17
34
35

1.1
1.1

0.2
0.0

55
58

0.2

63

-0.1
98.1

-2.2

-0.1

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commodities®. 1967-100
do
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®.

0.5
0.7

LAGGING INDICATORS

Unit Labor Costs:
63. Unit labor cost, total private econ
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations • •
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.

1967=100

118.9

122.7

122.6

123.3

123.5

0.6

Dollars
1967=100 ....

0,810
113.6

0.828

0.828

0.832

0.829

116.6

116.1

117.3

117.1

0.5
1.0

Ann. rate, percent.

5.3

6.1

do

7.8
7.5

117.5

117.9

118.7

0.3

0.7

-0.4
-0.2

68
62

B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS

Flows of Money and Credit:
85 Change in money supply(Ml) a
102. Change in money supply plus time
103. Change in money sup. plus time dep. at
banks and nonbank inst (M3) 2

do
Ann.rate,bil.dol. .
do
* 113. Change in consumer installment debt . . .
do
do
2

3.7

1.0

13.6

0.6

10*6

12.2

4.4

7.9

10.2

13.4

15.1

3.2

1.7

-7.8

12.5
36.2

14.2
34.9

9.5

10.8
48.1
10.8
-4.6

15.5

16.7

4.7
NA

1*2
NA
NA

-6.5

-8.5

1.22

7.7
43.4
10.4

41.2
12.4
-3.7

2.6

84.8

8.0
1.6
125.5

128.1

9.8
142.9

117.5

do

1.89

1.92

2.28

1.67

1.54

1.34

Percent, EOP....

1.87

1.68

1.81

1.75

1*68

1.68

Million dollars...

-616

-207

-116

-520

Percent

6.44
9.05
6.58
6.35

4.34
7.85
5.74
5.48

4.21
8.05
5.88
5.74

5.05
8.09
5.75
5.75

Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv.*) ©
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans
(inuPrtPfM2 5

19.8

10.5

2.8
0.2

6.7
-0.6

3.2

NA
7.6

NA
NA
7.7

-3.2
-3.9

9.0

10*4

16.2

-6.8

8.5
3.7
10.4
11.6

-88.5

26.8

NA

NA

NA

NA

0-06

153

129

-95

24

404

-0.62
-0.18

-0.22

0*84
0*04

2.30

-2.7

85

3.5

102

1.8

103
33
113
112
110

-2.2

2.0
-13.5
-17.8
7.8

14

0.07

39

-440

93

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Bank Reserves:
93 Free reserves (inverted^)2 ®
Money Market interest Rates:
114 Treasury bill rate 2 ®
116 Corporate bond yields2 (§)
115. Treasury bond yields2 ®
117. Municioal bond Yields2 <G>




....•

do
do
do

-80

4.23
7.64
5.52
5.16

58

4.02
7.54
5.62
5.21

3.40
7.36
5.62
5.12

3.18
7.57
5.67
5.28

o.oo

-0.09

0.21
0.05
0.16

-0.13
0.01

-0.82
-0.45
-0.23
-0.59

114
116
115
117

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Con.
Basic datal
Unit
of
measure

Series title

Percent change
Dec.

1970

1971

2dQ

3dQ

4th Q

1971

1971

1971

Dec.
1971

Jan.
1972

Feb.
1972

Jan.

to

to

Jan.
1972

Feb.
1972

2dQ
to
3dQ
1971

3dQ
to
4th d
197-1

e
<D
Or)

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B6. Money and Credit— Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS

Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt5
*72. Com. and industrial loans outstanding

Bil.dol., EOP...
. . .Bil.dol.

Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans 2@. . . Pprrpnt
do
118. Mortgage yields, residential 2@

99.0
84.8

107,1

101.4

104.0

107,1

107.1

107.7

84,3

83.5

84.6

85,5

85.2

84.5

85.1

-0.8

8.48
9.03

6,32
7.70

6.01
7.67

6.51
7.91

6,18
7.65

7.59

7.49

7.46

-0.10

-0.03

-2.0

-3.2

-1.2

-5.3

-3.3

-3.8

-7.2

-0.5

•3.4

43.6

43.9

46,7

38.9

46.3

50.7

45.7

•9.9

18.1

21.2

NA
NA
•»3«1

NA

0.6

NA
0.7

2.6
1,3

3.0
1.1

66
72

-0.33
-0.26

67
118

2.0

-4.1

500

6.4

-16.7

502

3.6
1.7
1.9

-7.7

0.50
0.24

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Dl. Foreign Trade

500. Merchandise trade balance2

Ann. rate,bil.dol..

do
502. Exports excluding military aid
506. Export orders, durable goods except motor
do
vehicles
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery. • . . 1957-59=100....
Ann. rate, bi 1. dol. .
512. General imports

2.8
42.7
17.2

253

17.5

246

16.7

242

17.3

246

265

284

17.7

300

NA
NA

9.5

-16.5
5.6
9.9

4.6
7.7

506
508
512

45.6

47.0

47.9

44.2

-0.1

-0.0
-1.3
-3.2

-0.2
-1.6
-3.7

-4.6

NA
NA

-3.0
-3.8
-9.8

NA
-22.2
-29.6

-12.9
-23.2
-23.0

-12.4
-37.2
-48.7

NA
-18.1
-24.6

1.1

600

197.7

197.8

203.1

0.1

2.7

601

1.4

1.8
1.7
7.2
7.9
0.0

602
264
616
621
647
648
625

39.9

49.6

54.5

52.8

02. U.S. Balance of Payments

Balance on goods and services2
Balance on goods, services, and remittances2
Balance on current account 2
Balance on current account and long term
capital 2
521. Net liquidity balance2
522. Official reserve transactions balance 2. ...

250.
515.
517
519.

do
do
do
do
do
do

3.6
2.2
0.4

.....

-0.2
-0.3
-0.5

NA
NA
...
...

...
...

...
• ••

...
...

0.5
, . « -14.0
, * . -25.7

-4.4

NA
NA
NA
19.1
24.1

250
515
517
519
521
522

D3. Federal Government Activities
600. Federal surplus or deficit, national
-3.0

601. Federal receipts, national income and
product accounts. . . .
602. Federal expenditures, national income
and product accounts
264 National defense purchases
.
616. Defense Dept. obligations, total
621. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement . . .
647. New orders, defense products industries. . .
648. New orders defense products
625. Military contract awards in U.S

. do

191,5

198.7

do
do
do
do
do
do
do

205.1

221.9

221.4

224.6

228.7

75,4
79.5
19.8
42.9
23.4
33,4

71.4
81.5
21.2
42.5
23.4
33.3

71.4
76.3
17.9
41,4
19,0
28,9

70.2
80.5
21.5
43.6
26.1
35.7

71.4
86.3
23.2
43.6
24.3
34.5

91.9
25.2
44.3
24.1
36.2

92.9
31.6
45.5

1967=100
do
do
do

130.7
116.3
110.0
110.4

137.0
121.3
114.0
113.9

136,6
120.8
113.6
113.8

137.8
122.0
114.9
114.7

138.4
122.7
115.1
114.8

123.1
115.3
115,4

121.2

129.6

128.8

130.7

132.2

104.2

106.9

106.7

107.2

107.7

89,95

92.30

92.24

92.03

93.14

1.2

859

122.8

131.3

130.7

132.3

133.7

1.2

1.1

745

105.6
104.3
103.5

108.3
108.0
107.0

108.2
107.4
106.5

108.5
108.5
107.1

109.0
109.4

0.3
1.0
0.6

0.5
0.8
1.2

746
770
858

78.2
1.60

74.5
1.56

75.4
1.55

73.9
1.55

74.0
1.54

0.1

1.54

1,50

3.03

2.77

2*71

2.73

2.69

2.73

2.59

91.6

83.2

82.1

83.8

82.6

82.4

82.5

0,079

0.082

0,086

0.081

0.078

0,687
4,9

0.478
5.1

0,477
4,9

0.494

0.484

-1.7

NA
NA

1.1

NA

22*4

NA
NA
-11.2
-43.6
NA

123.2
115.9
116.3

123.8
116.5
117.3

0.1
0.5
0.8

0.5
0.5
0.9

133.5

134.3

134.2

0.6

-0.1

1.5

1.1

740

108.5

108.9

108.2

0.4

•0.6

0.5

0.5

741

93.71

94.85

94.80

1.2

-0.1

37.4
44,3

40,4
21.1

25.4

2.7
55.2

5.5
20.1

5.3
37.4
23.5

-6.9
-3.4

D4. Price Movements

211. Fixed weighted price index, gross private
product
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities . .
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities <G)

0.9
1.0
1.1
0.8

0.4
0.6
0.2
0.1

211
781
55
750

D5. Wages and Productivity

740. Avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers in
private nonfarm economy
1967=100
741. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers in
do
private nonfarm economy
859. Real spendable avg. wkly. earnings,
do
nonagri. prod, or nonsupv. workers
745. Avg. hourly compensation in private nondo
farm economy
746. Real avg. hourly compensation in private
do
nonfarm economy
do
770. Output per manhour, total private economy .
do
858. Output per manhour, total private nonfarm

-0.2

E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios

850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing 2 . .Percent.
851. Ratio, inven. to sales, mfg. and trade
i Ratio
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, mfrs.'
do
durable goods industries
853. Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer
goods
1967=100
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
Ratio
personal income.
860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to
do ....
persons unemployed
^
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing2® .. Percent
NOTE:
. available.

NA

0.0

-0.6

850
851

NA

0.7

-1.5

852

0.1

2.1

-1.4

853

-3.7

854

-2.0

860
857

-1.5

NA

-2.6

NA

-5.1

82.6

0.1

-5.8

0.494

0.499

0.533

1.0

6.8

3.6
0.4

0.0

Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by <§>, which appear to contain no seasonal movement.
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
NA = not
a = anticipated.
EOP = end of period.
For complete series titles (including composition of composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" in the back of BCD.

1

In many cases, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits or are in different units than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual
figures are those published by the source agencies or they are rounded from published figures; otherwise they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series)
3
are averages or totals of the data as shown in part II.
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
Index for the latest
month excludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113, for which data are not yet available.
"^Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements
5
in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series)
are the last figures for the period.




8

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart Al

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P I

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
11001000900800-

200. GNP h current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
700-

215. Per capita GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, thous. dol.)

217. Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars,
0 (ann. rate, thous. dol.)

1950

51

52

53

54

55

Current data for these series are shown on page 68.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ MARCH 1972
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ItCII

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

1972

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.)
P

(Nov.)
T

220. National income, current dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

222. Personal income, current dollars, Q

224. Disposable personal income, current dollars, Q
ann. rate, bil. dol.

225. Disposable personal income, 1958 dollars,
Q (am. rate, Wl. dol.)

226. Per capita disposable perse
Q (ann. rate, thous. dol)

227. Per capita disposable personal income, 1958 dollars,
Q (arm. rate, thous. dot)

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 68.




10

MARCH 1972

KCII

Section A
Chart A3

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

(Nov.) -Nov.)
p
j

(May) (Feb.)

Annual rate, billion dollars
Personal consumption expenditures230. Total, current dollars, Q

231. Total, 1958 dollars, Q

232: Durable goods.lotaircurrerrt dollars, Q

233. Durable goods, total excluding automobiles,
rent-dolfersra

234. Automobiles, current dollars, Q

236. Nondurable goods, total, current dollars, Q

237. Sendees, total, current dollars, Q

so1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

BMI MARCH 1972



11

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

180-j

B3

160- ,
140120- '

jjpj^ private domestic Jnvestment-

100-

140-j
120100- '

80-

241. Nowesidential fixed investment, total, Q
6050-i

40-

30-

2080-i

70605040-

30-

50-,

454035302520-

+20-1

+10-

0-

-10-

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

12




MARCH 1972

BCII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
FOREIGN TRADE

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.)
P

(Nov.)
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

250. Net exports of goods and services, a
+5-

«
S

o-5 J

80706050-

252. Exports of goods and services, 0
40-

30-

20-

8070605040-

253. Imports of goods and services, Q
30-

20-

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page70.

BCII

MARCH 1972



13

Section A
Chart A6

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
I GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
I

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Nov.
T

Annual rate, billion dollars (current)

Government purchases of goods and servfces-

260. Federal, State, and local governments, Q

262. Federal Government, 0

264. National defense, Q

266. State and local governments, Q

1950

SI

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

14




MARCH 1972

BCII

Section A

V "'..•••

''

Chart A7

FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES

(July; (Aug.)
P

•;:'*.. ^<f> PRODUCT

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Juiy) (Apr.)
P I

I

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Annual rate, billon dollars (current)

24C-!
I
200 -|
|
180-j'

270. Final sales, durable goods, Q
120-

80

271. Change to business inventories, durable goods, Q

275. Change In business Inventories, nondurable goods,

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ MARCH 1972
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

15

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
700-1

Annual rate, billion dollars

600500400-

280. Compilation of emptoyees,
'•^K f?.H

«#££* :l-

300 J

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 70 and 71.


16


MARCH 1972

BCII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SAVING

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

and government), Q

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 71.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ MARCH 1972
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

BCII

17

Section A
1 Chart A10

NATIONAL INCOME AND
REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
?
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)

248. Change in business inventories, 1958 dollars, Q

231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, 1958 dollars, Q

247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, 1958 dollars, Q

248. Fixed investment, residential structures, 1958 dollars, Q

261. Government purchases of goods and services, total, 1958 dollars, Q
120-

45-1
40 -j
3-5-1

249. Gross auto product, 1958 dollars, Q

20 -

15-

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 68, 69 and n.


18


MARCH 1972

Section A
Chart All

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

Gross National Product Shares
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

P

T

Percent

70!

230A. Personal consumption expenditures as percent of GNP, Q

60-

50 i

40-

30-

241A. Fixed investment nonresidential,
as percent of GNP, Q

266A. State and local government
purcnases 01 goons IHHI services
as percent of GNP,
,.,.»-»««»*•*••••*••**•"*

ederal uovernment purcnases
of goods and services as percent of GNP, Q

20-i

10-

244A. Fixed investment, residential structures as percent of GNP, ft
0J

250A. Net exports of goods and services
as percent of GNP, Q

245A. Change in business inventories as percent of GNP, Q
National Income Shares

801

Percent
280A. Compensation of employees as percent of national Income, Q

70-

60-

50-

40- .

30-

282A. Proprietors' income as
percent of national income, u

286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation
adjustment as percent of national income, Q

20-

10-

284A. Rental income of persons as percent of national income, 0

288A. Net interest as percent of national income, Q,
0J

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 72.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/MARCH 1972
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

IICII

19

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart Bl

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

42 -,

rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)

insurance (thousands-inverted scale)

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.




20

MARCH 1972

ItCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators

P

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)

(July) (Aug.)

P

T

P

T

(Nov.) (Nov.)

T

P

T

Job Vacancies

300250200-

50. Number of job vacancies, mfg. (thousands)
150100-

50 J
300250-

200-

advertising (index: tS57~5J=IOO)
150100J
1501

140-

130-

120-

110J

751
70-

65-

60-

80-.

7570-

65-

60-

55-

50-

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 73 and 74.


MARCH 1972


21

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.

Bl

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July) (Apr.)

(July) (Aug.)
P
I

(May) (Feb.)
P I

• Nov.) (Nov.)
P
I

Comprehensive Unemployment

43. Unemployment rats, tots! (percent-inverted scale

* Hi C/5

45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale)

40. Unemployment rate, married mates (percent-inverted scale)

Lagging Indicators

*44. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent-inverted scale)

52

58

59

*iO

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

7©

71 ii7

Current data for these series are shown on page 74.




22

MARCH 1972

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Section B
Chart B2

PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov.) (Nov.)

Comprehensive Production

11001000H
950 -j ,r

900 4 ;';
850 "i 3

*200. GNP in current dollars, Q (am. rate, Ml. dol.)

*205. GNP in 1958 dollars,
Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

*47. Industrial production (index: 1967=100)

*52. Personal income (ann. rate, bil. dol.

53. Wages and salaries in mining/ manufacturing,
construction (ann;* rate,"ijH: tlot.'t ~

'*,*!'

ri

:

.

-

•

;

•

'

Sfc

*j

.; •

,,.

'.,

'

.s

r

_

;;/

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.


ltd* MARCH 1972


23

Section B
Chart B2

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade

12001150110010501000950-

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.

24




MARCH 1972

IICII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B3

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Formation of Business Enterprise

•g

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76 -


MARCH 1972


25

Section B
Chart

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

B3 J FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

New Investment Commitments - Con

11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q (bil. dol.)

24. Manufacturers' new orders, producers' capital goods industries (bii. dol.)

9. Construction contracts, commercial and industrial (mil. sq. ft

28. New (tflvtte nousmg units started, total lann. rate, millions; MCD moving avg.-5-term)

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 76 and 77.




26

MARCH 1972

KCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

120100-

96. Ma

80- '

J orders, durable goods industries [bil. (tot]

60- '

40302520-

97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing, Q p. doLJ'

15-

(

10-

Lagging Indicators

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.

!!€!»


MARCH 1972


27

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B4

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug)
I

(May; (Fefc
P T

Inventory Investment and Purchasing

+20-

245. Change in business inventories, Q (am. rate, bit. dot.)

*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
larai. rare, DR. 001.; wuu moving avg.-3-termj

+2QT
+10*

37. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories

50 -

25

20. Change in book value,
ITS' inventories of materials and stipples
iate, ui uul, MCD iimvlm a»g.~6-tem)

+10-

+5-

0-1

100-

reiwrting commitments 60 days or longer

v

v,-/

75-

M^

50-

H»* I

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 77 and 78.




28

MARCH 1972

ICO

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Chart

B4

! INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

(May)

(July) (Apr.)

P

P

T

(Feb.)

(Nov.)

(Nov.)

P

T

T

inventory Investment and Purchasing -" Con. BB^H

100-1

32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting slower deliveries

75-

50-

25J

IS. Change in untied orders, Affable goods industries
(Ml. dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)

0--

_2 J

Lagging Indicators
200-1
180160-

p

140--

*7l Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories (bil. dot.)

120-1
c.

10080-1
403530-

65. Book value of manufactwers' inventories, finished goods (by. dol.)

25c

20- ]
c

15-

10-1

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ MARCH
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ItCII

1972

29

Section B

I CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
160-i
140-

*23. Industrial materials prices

1067=100)

120100-

80140120100- '

*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43-10)

80- '

60J

0 [am. rate, bil. dol.|

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and 79.




30

MARCH 1972

!!€!»

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.

Leading Indicators-Con.
(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

100-1
90
8070-

34. Net cash flow, corporate,
current doHars, Q (am rate, bil. dol.)

60-'

40-

30-

70-j
6050- '
4030-

Roughly Coincident Indicators

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Currerft data for these series are shown on page 79.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/MARCH 1972
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ltd*

31

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.

Lagging Indicators
(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
p
T
130 -,

•••••••••••••1 '
•llililJ-.I.MiK.TSEl
••••••••r.;

-

.,,

,
_*r

*+*

Q3
•-"

f
/
Unit labor cost, total private economy-

63. Index, Q (1967=100)

j^

/

125120115110-

/
10510095-

^s~*

^

"^

qn-

63c. Change over 1-quarter spans, Q (ann. rate, percent)

0.90-1
0.850.80-

Z

68. Labor cost (curr. dot.) per unit of real corporate product, Q (dollars)

0.75-

0.70 J

62. Labor cost per unit of output, mamifacturing (index: 1967=100)

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

JVA

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 79.




32

MARCH 1972

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Section B
Chart B6

MONEY AND CREDIT

Leading Indicators

P

(Feb.)
T

T

Flows of Money and Credit
+25~

102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks (M2)
[ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-b-term)

+20+15-

+5-

0+25+20 •

+15-

103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at banks
and nonuanK institutions \m] |a«n. rate, percent;
MRR mm/ing avg -R-term]

•flO-

_

+5 -

85. Change in money supply (Ml) (ann. rate, percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

33. Change in mortgage debt (aim. rate, ML dot.)

-15-1

*113. Change in consumer instalment debt (arm. rate, bit. dot.)

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 80.


BCD MARCH 1972


33

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

110. Total private borrowing, Q (ann. rate, bil. doll

14. Liabilities of business failures (mil dol.-inverted scale;

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 80.




34

MARCH 1972

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
-1.5 T

-1.0-

2J

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.


MARCH 1972


ItCII

35

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B6

MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Lagging Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

<Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Outstanding Debt

Consumer mstaftnent debt (bil. dol.

60-

*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial banks [H. dol)
40

Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages

7- <
6-

•67. Bank rates on short-term business bans, Q (percent)

5lO-i

9-

7-

118. Mortgage yields, residential (percent)
6-

5-

4J

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.




36

MARCH 1972

ItCII

Section B

CYCLICAL UVUMCATORS

Chart B7

COMPOSITE INDEXES

(July)
P

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

Selected Indicators by Timing

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

P

T

Index: 1967=100

U

-I

-x/ws*x*/

_
810. Twelve leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted
(series 1, 5, 6,10,12,16, U, 19, 23,

/

s

130120110-

-i

S

150-j
140-

mn-

/

IDU-

140+1

-T^

y

130120-

S

t

110-

S

«/

mn-

-j

IOU"

_x^x^v*y*x

/

*

120110mn-

830. Six lagging indicators (series 44, 61, 62, 67, 71, 72)/

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 82. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.
'Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.

BCD MARCH 1972




37

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
COMPOSITE INDEXES—Con.

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Index: 1967=100
120-n
110-

811. Twelve leaders, prior to trend adjustment
| (series 1, 5, 6,10,12,16,17,19, 23, 29, 31,113)

100-

120-1

Leading Indicator Subgroups

110-

813. Marginal emptoyment adjustments series 1, 2, 3, 5)

100-

9080130120110-

814. Capital investment commitments (series 6,10,12, 29)

Inventory investment and purchasing (series 23, 25, 31, 37]

816. Profitability (series 16,17,19)

817. Sensitive financial flows (series 33, 85,112,113)
..«$„' K

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

5?^::^° ,

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

38



MARCH 1972

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing

Chart B8 I NBER SHORT LIST

Leading Indicators
(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
• ' „ -" -f

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

ill

claims. State unemployment
scale]

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 73,76, and 77.

MARCH 1972




39

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Selected Indicators by Timing

NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Apt.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)

(Nov.)

P

T

ann. rate, bil. dot; MCD moving avg.-5-term)

*23. Industrial materials prices (index: 1967=100)

500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10]

*16. Corporate profits after taxes, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

*113. Change in consumer installment debt [ann. rate, bil. dol.]

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 77, 78. 79, and 80.

40



MARCH 1972 BCD

Section B

Selected Indicators by Timing

Chart B8

NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(Nov ) (Nov.)

*52. Personal income (ami. rate, bil. dol.)

*205. GNP in 1958 dollars,
Q (am. rate, bil. dol.)

/

-w

*r~ *++^S
/~+S

*47. fndustrial production
(index: 1967=IW)

y^
-4**

/*
^rf

*56. Manufacturing and trade
sales (bil dol.)

*54. Sates of retail stores
bit dot

*41. Employees on nonagricurtural
payrolls (millions

V

43. Unemployment rate, total 'percent-inverted scale)

1948

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 75.

licit

MARCH




1972

41

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Selected Indicators by Timing

NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

and over (percent-Inverted scale]

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 74, 77, 78, 79, and 81.

42



MARCH

1972

BCII

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

Chart Cl 1 AGGREGATE SERIES

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(Nov.)
T

Business expenditures for new plant
Industries, Q

fa) Actual expenditures
[am. rate, bil. dol.)

Second anticipations as
percent of actual (percent]

[6J Fbt anticipations-as
percent of actual (percent)

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

1973

Current data for these series are shown on page 83 .

ItCII

MARCH 1972



43

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES—Con.

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May)
P

(Nov.)
P

(Feb.)
T

(Nov.)
T

200-t
180160-

410. Manufacturers' sates, total value, Q (H. doL)
140- "

(

120-

100-

120-i

/

110100-

90-

412. Manufacturers' inventories, total
nook value, 0 (H. dot)

80- ;

7_

C

70-

60-

5040-i

30-

414. ConoWon of mamifactaws' Inventories: /
percent considered Mgh less percent
•'
20- A
\/\
•

v.

10-

050 -j

\

.

\

.A

40-

\

percent considered inadequate less percent
//*••••'
considered excessive, Q (percent)
•. y*'

30- '

20-

10-

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

1973

Current data for these series are shown on page 83.

44




MARCH 1972

BCII

Section C
Chart Cl

ANTICIPATIONS AND sNTLNIlONS
I AGGREGATE SERIES -Con.

(July) (Apr.)
P
I

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)

(Nov.)

P

T

Actual
Anticipated*

420. Current income of households compared to income a year ago, Q

60 -i

(a) Percent of households reporting no change in family income (percent)
50-

40-

(b) Percent of households reporting higher family income (percent)
30-

20-

(c) Percent of he

tjporting lower family income (percent)
10-

0-

425.

of substantial changes in income of households, Q

20-

\WA\

(a) Mean probability of increase to family income (percent)

15-

(b) Increase less decrease (percent)
10-

(c) Mean probability of decrease in family income (percent)
5-

10430. Number of new cars purchased by households, IT
(am. rate, mil cars)

as percent of actual data (percent)

435. Index of consumer sentiment, Q (1st Q 1966=100)
100-

908070-^

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

1973

Current data for these series are shown on page 83 .

BCD
MARCH 1972



45

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May)
P

(Feb.)
T

(Nov.)

(Nov.)

P

T

Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal quarter]
061. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment, all industries (1-8 span)
100-

, (a) Actual expenditures

7550250100755025-

0100-

0440. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
9080706050100"

0442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)
90-

80-

0444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (44 span

0446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade [4-Q span!

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

1973

Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.

46




MARCH 1972

IICII

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)

(Nov.)

P

T

Diffusion indexes: percent rising
(plotted at terminal patte>|

D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)

D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1

/\

D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)'

/S

0464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-Q span]1

D466. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span

1957

58

59

60

61

68

69

70

71

72

1973

Current data for these series are shown on page 84.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.

ItCII

MARCH 1972



47

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

506. Merchandise tradt

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(bit dd.; MCD moving avg.-6-temi)

502. Exports, except military aid (bil. dd; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

506. Export orders, durabtes except motor vehicles

ooi.; MCD moving avg-6-tenn

(index: 1957-59=100;

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 85.

48




MARCH 1972

!!€!»

Section D
Chart D2

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

(May) (Feb.)
P I

(July; (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug;
7

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

on uuiiHil

~OTr

nr
519. Balance on current account and long temi capital
-1.0-,

521. Net Iquiotty balance

522. Official

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

bala

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 86.

IICII


MARCH 1972


49

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P I

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

-Con.

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Major Components, Except Military Grant:
of Goods and Services - Con.

60-

56-

52-

48-

44-

40-

36-

32-

530. Liauid Katrilities to ad foreigners, outstanding at end of period

28-

24-

20-

16-

12-

532. Liquid and certain nonliquki labilities to
*|
i official agencies, outstanding at end of period

8-

4-

534. U.S. offteiai reserve assets-reserve position at i

22-i

•N» *$$&&

18-

\

14-

10-

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 86. End of year figures are used prior to 1960.


50


MARCH 1972

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D2

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
72 n

68-

64-

60-

56-

ES2 Excess of receipts
Excess of payments
52-

4852-

48-

44-

40-

38-

250. Balance on goods and services
32-

28-

Merchandise, adjusted24-

136. Exports
20-

16-

12-

8-

4J

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 86. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.

KCII

MARCH 1972



51

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Annual rate, billion dollars

Investment Income, Military Sales
and Expenditures, and Other Services

(223 Excess of receipts (inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow)
12-

Investment income-

543. Income on foreign investments in the U.S.

8-!

545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad

544. Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.

4-

0-

546. Military sates to foreigners
12-!

Transportation and other services-

4-

0J

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 87. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.

R9
J

£



MARCH 1972

Section D

CrH^'% KrY •Ni^CV'O**:

Chart D2 I BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Capital Movements Plus Government

AlMMl«l laljL tuttutn
JUinuai
rate, DmOn

Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers

YZ?/\ Excess of receipts (Inflow)
Excess of payments (outflow]

Direct investments-

+4-

560. Foreign investments in the U.S.

J

565. U.S. purchases of foreign securities

564. Foreign purchases of U.S. securities

+4-1
570. Government grants and capital transactions, net
0-

+4-1
575. Banking and other capital transactions, net

-

0-

<c
.32

-4-

-8J

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page87. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.

BCII

MARCH 1972



53

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Receipts and Expenditures

600. Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product accounts, Q (ana rate, bil. dot.)

26Q-,
240220200180160-

601. Federal receipts, national income and product accounts, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot)

14012010080-

60-1

TCT
682. Fi

260 n
240220200180160-

14012010080-

60-

1
1950 51

40-1

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 88.

54




MARCH 1972

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T
100-,
90-

Defense Indicators

8070-

264. National defense purchases, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot)

6050-

8-

7-

616. Defense Department obligations, total (bil. dot; MCD moving avg,6-tenn)

65-

4-.

3-

621. Defense Department obligations, procurement
(bH. dol.; MCD moving avjf.-6-term)

2-T

165-

847. New dfflers, flerense products
(bil. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)

4-

3-

*>
S
2-

1.

4-

3-

2-

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page88.

BCII

MARCH 1972



55

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D4

PRICE MOVEMENTS

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

211. Fixed weighted price index, gross private product
(variable weights prior to 196S}, Q (index: 1958=100)

211c. Change ki fixed weighted pice index, gross private product,
over Barter spans, a (am rate)

781c. Change in consumer price index, ail items-

V.

One-month spans1

1950
1

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 89.

56




MARCH 1972

BCII

Section D
Chart D4

PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

55c. Change to wholesale price index, industrial commodtti

1950
1

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown-against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page90.

MARCH 1972



57

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Section D

WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

"?•'••'"

^^S

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

-;

-r*^
*sr^

Average hwffly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy (annual data prior to 1964)-

^^^
.^

130120110100-

740. Current dollar earnmgs (index. 1967=100)

^^^^

qn-

741. Real earnings (index: 1967=100)

production or nonsupervisory workers (1967 dollars)

80

j* E
^^
*^

IHU

130120-

.^ '

Average bourfy compensation, ail employees,
piivaL^ noiif<uikt economy-

J

^

110100-

745. Current dolbf compensation, Q

.^^

Qfl-

746 Real compensation,
Q (Index: 1967=100

770. Outmrt per man-hour, total private

858. Output per man-hour, total private

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 91 and 92.

58




MARCH 1972

Section D
Chart D5

OTHER K; * .NCiCATOR?
I WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.

(July) (Apt.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Change in avg. hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy, adj. --'
Six-month spans (ann. rate

740c. Current dollar eamineis

741c. Real earnings

Six-month spans (ann. rate]

Change in avg. nouity compensation, aH employees,
private nonfarm economy over 1-quarter soans745c. Current dollar compensation, Q (arm. rate)

746c. Real compensation, Q (ann. im)

+20 i

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all ndustries-+15-

+10-

w

748. First year avg, changes, Q (ann. rate)
749. Average changes over life of contract, Q (ann. rate)

770c. Change hi output per man-hourf total private economy
over 1-quarter spans, Q (ami. rate)
+10-1

+50-1

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 2 One-month percent changes have been multipliea by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against
the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans. See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data lor these series are shown on page 91 and 92.

IICII MARCH 1972




59

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
(July)
P

July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

840-i
820-j
800-j
780760-

740 -j

720-j
700 -|

gross National Product in 1958 dollars, 0
(ami rate, Mi. dol.)

680 -j

660-j
840-j
620-i
206. Potential GNP1

800

V

i

580-j^f
560-J |
! CO

540-|
1
520 -j
500-i
i
480-j

460-)
I
440 4

420400-

380J

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 93.
'Trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersectingactual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and 4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to 4th quarter 1971.

60




MARCH 1972

licit

Section E
Chart

E2

ANALYTICAL RATIOS

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.i
T

(May) (Feb.^
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

r"\ r~\
.^~*^
I *~ \ s^ ^^S,850, Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing, Q (percent)
.,+S*""*^
^» * ' ** ' • ' «ML
/
\^S^
\

\ /
V

/VA

s~~~"—

\X
^

lOO-i
959085-

V

A .

80-

E

651.8-1
1.7-

851. Ratio, inventories to sates, manufacturing and trade (ratio)
A'yfs\A

XW-.

/L

/ ^\+/^ ^A j^
..\.,._.A/_ —
JM
_, , _

*i^ik

-^"V

7570-

^v^yv

^ >^w^V

1.61.5-

__

^**

«

"

1.4-

4.5-1
4.0-

m. Ratio. untiBed orders to shipments;
manufacturers' durable goods industries (ratio)

3.5 -

3.0™

2.5110"

853. Ratio, production of business equjpmerrt to consumer goods
100908070-

0.08-

0.060.041.2-

860. Ratio, help-w*ntP<j artverfeing to number
of persons uneropioyed ffatiol

0.8-

0.4-

857. Vacancy rate in total
rental housing, Q (percent)

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 94.


MARCH 1972


61

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Percent rising
01. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing-21 industries (9-mo. span— , 1-mo. span—)

D6. New orders, durable goods industries-36 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span- )
100 n

500J

011. Newly approved capital apprapriations-17 industries (3-Q span***, 1-0 span**.)1
100-,

50-0-J

034. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profrts-aboirt 1,000 manufacturing corporations (1-0 span)
75-,

5025 J

D19. Stock prices. 500 common stocks-77 industries (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span--)

D23. Industrial materials prices-13 industrial materials (9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span-

50-.

05. Initial claims, State unemployment insurance-47 areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)
100 i
500-1

1950

51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.

62




MARCH 1972

KCII

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

Percent rising

D41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls-30 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)

D47. Industrial production-24 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—)

50-

058. Wholesale prices,manufactured goodi^inilustries|6-mo. span-*, 1-mo. span—-)

D54. Sales of retail stores-23 types of stores |9-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—
100-,

50-

o-J

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 96 .

BCD MARCH 1972



63

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
RATES OF CHANGE

(July) (Apr.)
P
I

(Nov.)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
T

Percent change, annual rate
200. (c) GNP in current dollars (1-Q span)

205. (c) GNP in constant dollars (1-Q span)

820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators (series 41, 43, 47, 52, 56)

48. Man-hours in non agricultural establishments

10-j

47. Index of industrial production
30-|

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

1973

To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult 'Index—Series Finding Guide,* pp. 113 and 114

64



MARCH 1972

BCII

Section

DM
Fr.

F

Lit.

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Chart Fl | CONSUMER PRICES
(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

-Nov.- (Nov.)
P '

T

IJU ~|

Index: 1967=100

^H

Consumer prices-

^^"^
781. United States

!20 -j
'10 -j

^^

80-

1950 51

52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 101.

IBM)
MARCH 1972


65

Section F

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

1950

51

52

53

54

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on pages 101 and 102.




66

MARCH 1972

BCII

Section F

INTERNATIONAL

Chart F3~1 STOCK PRICES

1950

51

52

53

54

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71 1972

Current data for these series are shown on page 102.


MARCH 1972


ltd*

67

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

200. Current dollars

Year
and
quarter

a. Total

b. Difference

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

210. Implicit price deflator

205. Constant (1958) dollars
b. Difference

a. Total

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

b. Difference

a. Total

(Index:
1958=100)

(Index:
1958=100)

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

906.4
921.8
940.2
948.0

+16.2
+15.4
+18.4
+7.8

+7.5
+6.9
+8.3
+3.3

721.4
724.2
727.8
725.2

+4.9
+2.8
+3.6
-2.6

+2.8
+1.5
+2.0
-1.4

125.6
127.3
129.2
130.7

+1.3
+1.7
+1.9
+1.5

+4.5
+5.3
+6.1
+4.8

956.0
968.5
983.5
988.4

+8.0
+12.5
+15.0

+3.4
+5.3
+6.3
+2.0

719.8
721.1
723.3
715.9

-5.4
+1.3
+2.2
-7.4

-3.0
+0.7
+1.3
-4.1

132.8
134.3
136.0
138.1

+2.1
+1.5
+1.7
+2.1

+6.6
+4.6
+5.0
+6.3

1,020.8
1,040.0
1,053.4
1,072.9

+32.4
+19.2
+13.4
+19.5

+13.7
+7.8
+5.2
+7.6

729.7
735.8
740.7
751.3

+13.8
+6.1
+4.9
+10.6

+8.0
+3.4
+2.7
+5.8

139.9
141.3
142.2
142.8

+1.8
+1.5
+0.9
+0.6

+5.4
+4.2
+2.5
+1.7

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

+4.9

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT-Con.
Year
and
quarter

215. Per capita
GNP, current
dollars

217. Per capita
GNP, constant
(1958) dollars

NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
220. National
income in current dollars

222. Personal
income in current dollars

Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dol.)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

4,490
4,556
4,634
4,658

3,574
3,579
3,587
3,563

745.9
758.9
771.7
778.2

726.8
743.1
759.3
772.2

613.2
625.9
643.2
654.5

506.1
509.8
517.5
520.5

3,037
3,093
3,170
3,216

2,507
2,520
2,550
2,558

4,686
4,735
4,795
4,804

3,528
3,526
3,526
3,480

785.8
793.4
802.2
802.1

784.3
803.8
809.8
816.7

667.6
685.7
696.2
701.5

524.4
533.0
536.0
532.5

3,272
3,353
3,395
3,410

2,570
2,606
2,613
2,588

4,949
5,030
5,082
5,163

3,538
3,559
3,573
3,615

831.7
847.3
855.2
p870.3

833.5
853.4
864.6
876.7

722.0
739.6
748.5
755.0

542.7
550.5
553.2
556.1

3,500
3,577
3,611
3,633

2,631
2,663
2,669
2,676

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter .

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9, 10, and 64.




68

MARCH 1972

ItCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
Year
and
quarter

230. Total in
current dollars

231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

232. Durable
goods, total in
current dollars

233. Durable
goods, total except
autos, in current
dollars

234. Automobiles
in current dollars

236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

237. Services in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

56^.3
575.8
584.1
594.2

465.7
469.0
469.9
472.6

89.5
90.6
89.4
90.3

57.7
59.3
57.7
58.1

31.8
31.3
31.7
32.2

241.5
246.4
249.4
253.1

233.4
238.9
245.2
250.8

604.0
613.8
620.9
624.7

474-4
477.1
477.9
474.2

88.6
90.7
90.4
84.9

59.7
60.8
60.8
61.4

28.9
29.9
29.6
23.5

259.4
262.9
265.5
270.9

256.1
260.2
265.0
268.9

644.9
657.4
668.8
677.2

484.8
489.4
494.3
498.9

96.6
99.1
102.8
103.6

62.7
64.7
66.0
67.5

33.9
34.4
36.8
36.1

273.2
277.8
280.2
283.3

275.0
280.5
285.8
290.3

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter

240. Total

241. Nonresidential
fixed investment

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

242. Nonresidential
structures

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

243. Producers'
durable equipment

244. Residential
structures

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

245. Change in
business inventories

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

134.3
137.0
141.8
138.0

95.0
96.6
100.7
102.2

33.1
33.0
36.0
36.0

61.8
63.6
64.7
66.2

32.7
33.6
30.7
30.1

+6.6
+6.8
+10.4
+5.7

131.2
134.1
138.6
137.3

100.8
102.1
104.8
100.8

36.1
36.6
37.3
37.1

64.7
65.6
67.5
63.7

30.0
29.9
28.7
32.8

+0.4
+2.1
+5.1
+3.7

143.3
152.9
150.8
159.4

104.7
108.3
109.3
112.6

36.7
38.5
38.7
39.0

68.1
69.8
70.6
73.6

35.4
40.0
42.7
44-4

+3.1
+4.6
-1.2
+2.4

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The"r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12.

ItCII


MARCH 1972


69

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

H

Qj FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS

Year
and
quarter

250. Net exports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1969
First Quarter
Second quarter.
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1970
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter.
Fourth quarter

253. Imports
of goods and
services

252. Exports
of goods and
services
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

48.0
56.9
58.3
59.2

46.6
55.7
55.5
56.6

206.5
207.8
211.5
213.0

99.2
97.7
100.3
99.5

78.3
77.5
79.4
78.4

107.3
110.1
111.2
113.5

+3.5
+4.2
+4.0
+2.7

61.5
63.2
63.7
63.2

58.0
59.0
59.7
60.5

217.3
216.5
220.1
223.7

100.2
96.8
96.1
95.9

78.9
75.1
74.2
73.2

117.1
119.7
124.0
127.9

+4.7
+0.1

66.2
66.5
68.2
60.4

61.5
66.4
68.2
65.0

227.9
229.6
233.8
240.8

96.4
96.0
97.6
100.3

72.6
71.4
70.2
71.4

131.6
133.6
136.2
140.5

0.0
-4.6

Durable goods
270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1969
First quarter
Second quarter ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1970
First quarter
Second quarter —
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1971
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

+1.4
+1.2
+2.8
+2.7

H

Q FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
Year
and
quarter

266. State and
local

264. National
defense

262. Federal

260. Total

280. Compensation 282. Proprietors'
of employees
income

Nondurable goods

271. Change in
274. Final sales
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
bil. dol.)

NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

284. Rental income
of persons

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

179.1
179.6
181.3
183.4

+3.8
+4.7
+6.5
+3.0

262.2
268.0
271.0
274.9

+2.8
+2.1
+4.0
+2.8

545.9
559.1
573.6
583.6

66.7
67.1
67.1
67.2

22.0
22.6
22.7
22.9

181.5
183.7
184.9
173.1

-1.8
-2.0
+4.7
-3.4

279.9
282.9
284.9
290.9

+2.2
+4.0
+0.4
+7.1

593.2
598.5
606.5
609.3

68.0
67.6
66.0
65.9

23.0
23.2

189.4
190.6
196.4
198.4

+3.5
+2.3
-2.5
-1.8

293.1
295.5
301.0
303.6

-0.4
+2.3
+1.3
+4-3

627.3
638.0
645.6
656.6

66.4
67.2
69.2
70.5

23.8
24.2
24.5
24.6

23.4
23.7

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 14, 15, and 16.




70

MARCH

1972

ItCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
Year
and
quarter

286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

288. Net interest

SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS

290. Gross saving 292. Personal
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

294. Undistributed 296. Capital concorporate profits
sumption
plus inventory valu- allowances
ation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

298. Government
surplus or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

82.7
80.7
78..0
73.3

28.6
29.4
30.2
31.1

136.2
139.7
145.1
142.9

32.8
33.4
42.3
43.1

16.9
15.3
15.1
10.7

78.4
80.2
82.1
83.9

+10.7
+5.6
+5.3

69.8
71.5
73.0
69.0

31.8
32.6
33.4
34.2

139.0
141.1
142.6
138.3

46.2
54.2
57.4
58.5

10.8
12.2
12.2
11.7

85.4
86.9
88.2
89.8

-3.4
-12.2
-15.2
-21.7

79.5
82.5
80.0
p82.2

34.8
35.4
35.9
36.4

149.1
154.5
151.8
P157.3

58.6
63.6
61.0
59.0

15.7
18.0
16.7
p20.5

92.0
93.9
96.2
98.7

-20.9
-22.2

+8.2

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

-17.1
p-20.8

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
Year
and
quarter

273. Final sales,
constant
(1958) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

246. Change in
business inventories,
constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

248. Fixed investment, residential
structures, constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

249. Gross auto
product, constant
(1958) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

261. Government
purchases of goods
and services, total,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

715.8
718.3
718.6
720.3

+5.7
+5.8
+9.2
+4.9

78.6
79.1
81.1
81.7

24.1
24.4
22.1
21.6

37.2
33.4
36.3
33.1

147.8
146.1
144-8
143.8

719.5
719.1
719.4
712.8

+0.3
+2.0
+3.9
+3.1

79.3
79.4
80.1
75.5

21.4
21.3
20.0
22.6

29.1
33.0
31.6
19.6

142.6
138.7
138.2
138.3

727.2
731.7
741.2
748.9

+2.5
+4.1
-0.5
+2.4

77.7
79.1
78.9
81.5

24.1
26.7

36.8
34.7
37.5
35.2

137.6
137.0
139.6
142.6

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .

28.3
29.0

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated.; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16, 17, and 18.

KCII


MARCH 1972


71

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
Year
and
quarter

Percent of Gross National Product
230A. Personal
consumption
expenditures

244A. Fixed
investment, residential structures

241A. Fixed
investment
nonresidential

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

245A. Change
in business
inventories

250A. Net exports of goods
and services

(Percent)

(Percent)

262A. Federal
266 A. State and local
Govt. purchases of Govt. purchases of
goods and services goods and services
(Percent)

(Percent)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

62.3
62.5
62.1
62.7

10.5
10.5
10.7
10.8

3.6
3.6
3.3
3.2

+0.7
+0.7
+1.1
+0.6

+0.2
+0.1
+0.3
+0.3

10.9
10.6
10.7
10.5

11.8
11.9
11.8
12.0

63.2
63.4
63.1
63.2

10.5
10.5
10.7
10.2

3.1
3.1
2.9
3.3

0.0
+0.2
+0.5
+0.4

+0.4
+0.4
+0.4
+0.3

10.5
10.0
9.8
9.7

12.2
12.4
12.6
12.9

63.2
63.2
63.5
63.1

10.3
10.4
10.4
10.5

3.5
3.8
4-1
4.1

+0.3
+0.4
-0.1
+0.2

+0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.4

9.4
9.2
9.3
9.4

12.9
12.8
12.9
13.1

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Con.
Year
and
quarter

Percent of National Income
280A. Compensation
of employees
(Percent)

284A. Rental income
of persons

282A. Proprietors'
income
(Percent)

(Percent)

286A. Corporate profits and 288A. Net interest
inventory valuation
adjustment
(Percent)

(Percent)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

73.2
73.7
74.3
75.0

8.9
8.8
8.7
8.6

2.9
3.0
2.9
2.9

75.5
75.4
75.6
76.0

8.7
8.5
8.2
8.2

75.4
75.3
75.5
P75.4

8.0
7.9

9.4

3.8
3.9
3.9
4.0

2.9
2.9
2.9
3.0

8.9
9.0
9.1
8.6

4.0
4.1
4.2
4.3

2.9
2.9
2.9

9.6
9.7
9.4

4.2
4.2
4.2

11.1
10.6
10.1

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .

8.1
p8.1

p2.8

p9.4

P4.2

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 19.

72




MARCH

1972

ItCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Qj EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
LEADING INDICATORS

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

Marginal Employment Adjustments

Job Vacancies

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

*1. Average
workweek of
production workers,
manufacturing

21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production
workers, manufacturing

(Per 100
employees)

(Hours)

(Hours)

2. Accession
rate, manufacturing

3. Layoff rate,
*5. Average
manufacturing
weekly initial
claims for unemployment insurance,
State programsi
(Per 100
(Thous.)
employees)

50. Number of
job vacancies,
mfg. ®

46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspaper

(Thous.)

(1967=100)

o

f)

1970
January
February
March

40.2
40.1

3.3
3.2
3.2

4.3
4.4
4.2

232
250
263

1.5
1.6
1.7

r!87
170
rl66

109
109
103

April
May
June

39.9
39.8
39.9

3.0
3.0
3.0

4.0
4.1
4.0

326
313
303

2.0
1.8
1.9

158
151
123

99
95

July
August
September

40.1
39.8
39.3

3-0
2.9
2.8

4.1
4.1
3.8

265
288
338

1.6
1.8
1.9

126
137
118

91
89
85

October
November
December

39.4
39.6
39.5

2.8
2.7
2.7

3.6
3.7
3.8

341
338
297

2.1
2.0
1.8

93
r75
r?6

77
78
80

1971
January
February
March

39.8
39.8
39.8

2.8
2.8
2.9

3.8
3.7
3.9

r289
r283
r293

1.7
1.5
1.5

81
80
83

75
77
78

April
May
June

39.8
40.0
40.0

2.9
3.0
2.9

4.0
3.8
3.7

r28l
r292
r296

1.6
1.5
1.5

93
r94
r90

78
79
83

July
August
September

40.0
39.8
39.5

3.0
2.9
2.8

3.7
4.2
3.9

r280
r312
r312

1.5
1.9
1.7

90
1)106
98

85
85
80

October
November
December
1972
January
February
March

39.8
40.1
40.3

3.0
3.0
3.1

3.6
4.1
3.9

r302
r293
r270

1.4
rl.4

90
79
78

80
81
85

r40.0
[H>p40.4

B>P3-1

r26l
E>257

Dpi. 3
(NA)

40.2

2.9

H>P4-3
(NA)

1.4

P87
(NA)

92

85
!>P88

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 f 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 20, 21, and 39*

^Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

ItCII


MARCH 1972


73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS

0| EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.

Minor Economic
Process

Year

LAGGING
INDICATORS

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.

....

Comprehensive Employment

48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments

and

month
(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)

*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey
(Thous.)

Long-Duration
Unemployment

Comprehensive Unemployment

42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey *
(Thous.)

*43. Unemployment rate, total1

(Percent)

45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs 2

*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed l~5 1 3
weeks and over

40. Unemployment rate,
married males1

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

1970

January
February
March

139.21
139.47
139.62

70,873
70,988
71,147

75,428
75,294
75,494

3.9
4.2
4-4

2.5
2.6
2.7

1.8
2.2

0.5
0.6
0.7

April
June

139.05
138.46
138.25

71,063
70,796
70,634

75,353
74,969
74,865

4.7
4.8
4.8

3.1
3.5
3.7

2.3
2.5
2.6

0.7
0.7
0.8

July
August
September

138.47
137.76
137.05

70,605
70,445
70,480

75,125
75,092
75,010

5.0
5.1
5.4

3.5
3.7
4.3

2.7
2.8
2.9

0.8
0.9
1.0

October
November
December

136.52
136.45
137.04

70,082
69,985
70,313

75,338
75,162
75,032

5.5
5.8
6.1

4.4
4-4
4.0

3.0
3.2
3.3

0.9
1.1
1.3

January
February
March .

137.36
136.65
137.38

70,454
70,391
70,480

75,312
75,190
75,059

6.0
5.9
6.0

3.7
3.7
3.8

3.3
3.2
3.2

1.3
1.3
1.3

April
June

137.56
138.07
137.99

70,599
70,769
70,657

75,192
75,418
75,299

6.0
6.1
5.8

3.9
4.3
4.3

3.2
3.2
3.1

1.3
1.4
1.4

July
August
September

137.91
137.67
137.64

70,531
70,529
70,853

75,640
75,792
76,088

5.9
6.1
6.0

4.0
4.1
4.6

3.1
3.2
3.3

1.5
1.5
1.5

138.07
138.92
r!39.17

70,848
71,042
r71,!85

76,416
76,601
76,698

5.8
6.0
6.0

4.4
4.1
3.8

3.0
3.3
3.2

1.5
1.5
1.5

r!39.6l
|H)pl40.44

r 71, 603
|H)p71,686

77,243
[H>77,266

5.9
B>5.7

3.5
G>3.5

3.0
0)2.8

1.4
1.5

May

2.0

1971

May

October
November
December . .
1972

January
February
March
April
May

June
July
August
September
October
November
December

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by 0); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
E). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 21, 22, 41, and 42. ""Beginning with January 1972, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for
computing this series. Prior to January 1972, the I960 Census is used as the benchmark. 2Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency, ^o current high.



74

MARCH 1972

IICII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS

UJ PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE

....

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

Minor Economic
Process

*200. Gross na- *205. Gross na- *47. Index of *52. Personal
tional product tional product industrial pro- income
in current dol- in 1958 dollars duction
lars

Year

and
month

(Ann. rate,

bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade

Comprehensive Income

Comprehensive Production

(1967=100)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

53. Wages and *56. Manufacsalaries in min- uring and trade
ing, manufactur- sales
ing and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

Sales of retail stores
57. Final sales
(series 200
minus series
54. Current
59. Deflated
dollar sales
(1967 dollar)
245)
sales
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)

1970
956.0

719 .*8

107.4
108.0
107.6

780,1
783.5
789.4

198.5
198.2
200.2

104,904
105,870
105,657

955^6

30,334
30,669
30,695

27,230
27,408
27,357

96B.5

721.1

107.5
107.5
107.6

808.0
802.0
801.4

198.7
197.1
197.4

104,807
106,758
107,389

966! 5

31,005
31,198
31,293

27,511
27,584
27,595

July
August
September

9&'.5

723! 3

107.5
107.5
106.5

805.3
809.0
814.9

198.3
198.5
198.0

107,626
108,052
107,738

978!Z

31,601
31,710
31,951

27,818
27,889
27,978

October
November
December

988!i

715.9

103.7
102.6
104.6

813.6
815.7
820.9

193.4
193.4
198.9

105,610
104,485
106,943

984.7

31,621
31,282
31,761

27,592
27,202
27,499

l,02o!8

72$>! 7

105.3
105.7
105.5

829.9
832.4
838.3

199.1
198.4
199.8

109,346
111,166
112,740

1,017!?

32,290
32,850
33,274

27,933
28,392
28,610

1,040,0

735.8
• •«

106.2
107.0
107.2

843.0
848.6
868.6

200.9
202.6
202.9

113,155
114,303
115,531

1,035!4

33,578
33,502
33,827

28,773
28,585
28,716

1,053.4

740.7

106.1
105.3
106.2

857.7
866.1
869.9

201.5
201.9
203.3

114-, 727
115,064
115,660

1,054.6

33,688
34,655
35,219

28,573
29,3U
29,821

D 1,072! 9

B> 75l!3

106.4
107.0
107.6

871.2
874.9
883.9

204.0
204.7
208.1

114,687
117,374 E> 1,070.4
r 116, 964

34,964
S> 35,574
r34,896

E> 30,046

r!08.2
E)pl09.0

r 892.0
DP896.9

January
February
March
April

May
June

1971
January
February
March
April

May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

.

...

29,580

r 29 ,374

1972
January
February
March.

r209.9 [H>pl20,625
E)p211.0
(MA)

P34,958
p34,904

p29,401
P29,184

. .

April

May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by [H>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14 f 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0).
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 23, 24, and 41.

ltd*


MARCH 1972


75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

ffl

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process

FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
LEADING INDICATORS

FOrma

EntenrD0risBeUSSineSS

New lnvestment

P

Year
and
month

*12. Index nf net 13. Number of
Business
new business
formation
incorporations

*6. Value of
manufacturers1
new orders,
durable goods
industries

(Number)

(Bil. dol.)

(1967=100)

* 10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and equipment

(1967=100)

(Bil. dol.)

n

n

1970

8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1

Commitments

11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations1

(Bil. dol.)

24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, producers' capital
goods industries
(Bil. dol.)

(2)

January
February
March

114-. 5
11^.2
110.7

22,397
23,152
21,383

29.23
28.64
28.45

April
May ...
June..

109.7
107.8
107.0

21,939
22,267
22,192

28.10
29.33

106.1
105.2

9. Construction
contracts, commercial and
industrial
buildings1
(Mil. sq.ft. floor
space)

(2)

131

8.38

137
132

7.77
7.06
7.67
6.90
7.18

6.42

29.61

130
110
120

30.07
29.75
28.36

116
135
118

7.35
7.09
6.86

6.46

rl05.4

22,106
22,055
22,372

5.90
5.68
5.61

r!06.0
rl05.7
rl04.8

21,625
22,383
22,085

26.78
27.56

r6.99
r7.30

5.84
5.87
5.92

51.71

5.90

30.14

115
130
132

105.8

z-105.4
1-108.7

22,338
20,923
23,220

31.67
31.07
31.47

117
126
142

r7.74
r8.04

5.76

6.44
6.62
6.22

54.37
50.04
65.44

Apri 1
May
June

r!08.8
rl09.9
rill. 9

22,770
24,168
24,691

30.23
30.60
30.67

161
141
147

r7.75
r7.66
r7.70

5.44

5.68
6.19
6.24

54.82
63.40
62.83

July
August
September

1-112.3
rll2.8
rill. 8

25,073
25,142
23,278

31.96
31.76
31.03

151
153
154

r7.48
[H>r6.07

6.15
6.55
6.42

60.67
54.82
1)70.72

rl!4.7
&rll6.7
rl!5.6

r25,050
(H>r25,828
r25,529

31.13

137
155
160

r8.30
r8.l6

6.81
6.56
6.84

61.75

P5.87

68.70
r66.69

pl!4.8

p24,783

E>165

(M)

(M)

[H>r9.44

E)r8.11
P7.15

r59.65
66.72

July
August
September

:.

October
November
December

6.65

r7.31

6.15
6.02
5.54

88.86
80.95

5.53
5.66
5.80

64.00

67.11

58.19

54.47
70.45
61.04
60.16

54.00
54.69

1971
January
February
March

..

October
November
December
1972
January
February
March

32.56
32.14

[HX35.10
P34.ll

155

r7.71

r8.21

r7.90

r8.19

P8.18

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by (R); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0).
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs
of these series are shown on pages 25, 26, and 39.
1
This is a copyrighted series used "by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency:
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division (series 8 and 9), or The Conference Board (series 11).
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
76



MARCH 1972 IM.JP

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS

....

LEADING INDICATORS-Con.

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

New Investment
Commitments-Con.

Backlog of Investment
Commitments

Minor Economic
Process

28. New private
housing units
started, total

Year
and
month

H

QH FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.

(Ann. rate,
thous.)

96. Manufactur*29.lndexof
ers' unfilled
new private
housing units orders, durable
authorized by goods induslocal building tries
permits
(1967=100)

(Bil. dol.)

LAGGING INDICATORS

Investment Expenditures

97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufacturing x 2

*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment, total

(Bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)

INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
LEADING INDICATORS

Inventory Investment and Purchasing

69. Machinery 245. Change in
and equipment business
sales and busi- inventories
ness construction expenditures
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
bil.dol.)

*31. Change in
book value of
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total

37. Purchased
materials, cornpa nies' reporting higher
inventories

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

( Percent
reporting)

(3)

1970
January
February . . .
March

1,109
1,322
1,364

93.5
100.1
96.8

84.17
83.25
82.46

April
May
June

1,230.
1,280
1,396

104.7
117.1
115.0

81.51
80.91
80.41

July..
August. . . .
September .

1,506
1,401
1,531

117.2
123.0
123.5

80.30
79.57
78.02

October . . .
November .
December .

1,589
1,621
1 ,943.

136.5
133.5
158.5

76.65
76.53
77.48

1,810
rl,793
1,938

143.3
137.0
142.6

78.98
D79.20
79.06

April
May
June

1,951
2,046
2,008

143.6
168.9
162.1

77.98
76.73
74.75

July
August . .
September.

2,091
2,219
2,029

179.8
175.8
166.5

74.58
74.88
74.36

2,038
r2,227
r2,457

190.4
171.1
(H> 200.9

74.32
74.78
75.06

r2,471
|H)p2,678

r!84-5
P185.1

r76.58
p76.88

23^25

87.20
88.34
87.99

+0.4

+3.3
+12.0
+4.0

50
50
51

8o!22

85.82
89.49
88.66

+2.1

+13.7
-1.8
+11.0

45
40
46

81.88

89.63
88.91
87.36

+5.1

(H)+14.3
+6.7
+6.7

46
44
47

78!63

85.55
85.41
85.94

+3^7

+4.2
+9.4
+3.1

46
47
44-

79.32

89.93
89.01
90.98

+3.1

+9.3
+5.1
+8.4

46
49
51

8l!6l

89.05
91.24
94.06

H) +4.*6

+8.9
+9.3
+4.3

57
55
58

80.75

93.77
95.14
96.12

-i'.2

+3.0
+6.1
+9.2

[H>59
51
41

E>83!l8

95.61
r94.80
r98.20

+2.1

+6.5
-0.7
r+6.4

39
42
r49

F^5.4
(NA)

r49
52

78.*22
...

22 [56

2l! 88

2l! 06

1971
January
February
March

October
November
December

2o! 52

19! 73

rl9.*71
P19.34

i972
January . .
February
March
April
May
June

ra87.54

[H)pl04.38
(NO

ra89.09

July
August
September
October
November
December

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @ . Current high values are
indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 26, 27, 28, 39, 40, and 42.

•'"This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not "be reproduced without written permission from the Conference
Board.

KCII

2

No current high.

MARCH 1972



3

See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.

77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Con.
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.

LAGGING INDICATORS

Inventory Investment and Pure ha sing -Con.

Inventories

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process

26. Production 32. Vendor
materials, com- performance,
panies report- companies reing commit- port ing slower
ments 60 days deliveries®
or longer®
( Percent
(Percent
(Ann. rate,
reporting)
reporting)
bil.dol.)

20. Change in
book value,
mfrs.' inventoriesof mtls.
and supplies

Year
and
month

Qj PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

25. Change in *71. Manufacunfilled orders, turing and
durable goods trade inventoindustries
ries, book
value
(Bil.dol.)

LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices Stock Prices

65. Manufacturers' inventories of
finished goods
book value

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

Profits and Profit Margins

*23. Index of *19. Index of
Corporate profits after
industrial
stock prices,
taxes
materials
500 common
stocks ®
prices®
16. Current
18. Constant
dollars
(1958)dollars
(1967=100) 11941-43=10)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1970
January
February
March

-1.2
+2.2
+0.9

61
62
56

56
58
50

-0.21
-0.92
-0.79

166.69
167.69
168.02

31.62
32.00
32.12

118.9
119.5
118.7

90.31
87.16
88.65

41*. 5

32.7

April
May
June

-0.9
-2.1
+0.1

60
57
55

52
72
69

-0.95
-0.60
-0.50

169.16
169.01
169.93

32.67
32.70
32.87

118.2
117.5
114.8

85.95
76.06
75.59

d'.3

32.1

July
August
September

+0.1
+1.0
+0.8

52
50
52

50
45
45

-0.10
-0.74
-1.54

171.12
171.68
172.24

33.10
33.33
33.53

112.4
111.2
110.5

75.72
77.92
82.58

42^9

32*.9

October
November
December
1971
January
February
March

+2.9
+3.5
+2.4

54
54
52

38
36
36

-1.37
-0.12
+0.96

172.59
173.37
173.64

33.94
34.24
34.11

109.5
108.8
106.4

84.37
84.28
90.05

39.2

29!<5

+0.6
-0.7
-2.2

52
E>59
56

38
44
46

+1.50
+0.22
-0.14

174.41
174.83
175.54

34.38
34.49
D34.71

105.9
107.2
107.8

93.49
97.11
99.60

44.8

33^5

+2.4
+3.2

57
55
58

52
B>53
50

-1.08
-1.25
-1.98

176.28
177.05
177.40

34.45
34.46
34.31

110.2
108.6
106.1

103.04
101.64
99.72

47! 8

35*.3

July
August
September

+2.0
-2.2
-4.6

57
55
52

48
49
48

-0.16
+0.30
-0.52

177.65
178.16
178.92

33.95
34.00
34.21

104.7
106.1
107.5

99.00
97.24
99.40

48!2

35!3

October
November
December
1972
January
February
March
.. .

+0.3
+0.9
+1.7

51
50
45

50
48
51

-0.04
+0.45
+0.28

179.47
179.41
rl79.94

34.63
34-50
34.30

107.4
106.9
106.8

97.29
92.78
99.17

DP49.8

E)P36.'3

+0.3
[N/0

53
55

52
52

H>r+1.53
p+0.29

H)pl80.39
(NO

34-16
(NO

April .
May
June

E>+4.7

103.30
110.7
113.0
105.24
B)1!^.? (3^07.72

April
May
June
July
.
August
September
October
November
December

. ..

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by 0); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28, 29, 30, 40, and 42.
1

Average for March 7, 14, and 21.




78

3

Average for March 1, 8, 1$, and 22.

MARCH 1972

KCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS

Q PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.
LEADING INDICATORS-Con.

....

Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

Profits and Profit Margins-Con.

22. Ratio, 15. Profits
(after taxes)
)rofits to
income orig.t per dollar of
sales, all
corp., all
mfg. corp.
indus.
(Percent)

1970
January
February
March

(Cents)

p>
8i5

ili

Cash Flow

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

LAGGING INDICATORS

Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices

Unit Labor Costs

*17. Ratio,
55. Index of
price to unit Net cash flow, corporate wholesale
labor cost
prices,
index, mfg. 34. Current 35. Constant Indus,
dollars
(1958) dol. commod.®

Unit labor cost, total
58. Index of
private economy
wholesale
prices, mfd.
goods®
63c. Change
63, Index
over i-Q
spans
(Ann. rate, (Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)
(1967=100) (bil. dol.)
percent)

96.5
97.2
97.2

7i!6

55^9

108.3
108.7
108.9

108.8
109.1
109.3

117! 7

97.0
97.6
97.4

72.*6

56.0

109.3
109.7
109.8

109.6
109.7
110.0

118 !l

July
August
September

8.*7

I'.o

97.4
97.1
96.8

74.4

56.*9

110.0
110.2
110.4

110.6
110.6
110.8

119.' 6

7.9

3'.6

96.9
96.3
96.4

72\3

54^1

111.3
111.3
111.7

111.2
111.2
111.2

120*.7

B.7

4.0

96.5
97.1
97.0

7B\6

58J3

112.2
112.5
112.8

111.8
112.4
112.7

121.4

B.9

DrZo

97.4
97.9
97.6

$3.3

6<X9

113-3
113.7
113.9

113.0
113.5
113.8

122.6

HXsG

r4^2

97.7
97.6
98.2

85.2

61 [5

114.5
115.1
115.0

114.5
114.9
114.7

123.' 3

(M)

98.0
98.2
98.1

!>P88.'$

E)p64.4

115.0
114.9
115.3

114.5
114.5
115.1

0>pl23.5

115.9
E>116.5

115.7
0)116.5

October
November
December
1972
January
February
March

9. *2

(1967=100)

E>98.2
P98.1

0.798

112.7
111.9
112.3

0.801

112.8
112.4
112.8

0.811

113-3
114.1
114.6

0.829

114.9
115.6
115.5

0.822

116.0
115.6
116.1<

0.828

115.9
116.0
116.5

0)0.832

117.0
118.1
116.9

pO.829

116.9
116.8
117.5

9.7

rl',2

July
August
September

*62. Index
of labor
cost per
unit of output, mfg.

Revised1

8.' 5

April
May
June

(Dollars)

Revised1

April
May
June

October
November
December
1971
January
February
March . .

68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per
unit of gross
prod. (1958
dol.), corp.

1.6
••.
3.1

6.0

2.1

E>4.1

2.1

pO.8

117.9
[H)pll8.7

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by 0); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk(*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available. Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30, 31, 32, 40, and 42.

•^ee "New Features and Changes for This Issue,TT page iii.

BCII


MARCH 1972


79

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

EQ MONEY AND CREDIT
LEADING INDICATORS

TIMING CLASS ....

Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

Flows of Money and Credit

85. Change in
U.S. money
supply (Ml)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

102. Change in
money supply
plus time deposits at comm
banks (M2)
(Ann. rate,
percent)

103. Change in
money sup. plus
timedep.at
banks and nonbank inst.(M3)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Revised2

1970

33. Net change
in mortgage
debt he Id by fin.
instand life insurance1
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Credit Difficulties

*113. Net
112. Change
change in con- in business
sumer install- loans
ment debt
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Revised2

110. Total
private
borrowing

(Ann. rate,
mil.dol.)

14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures©

(Mil.dol.)

39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over, total
installment
loans
(Percent)
Revised2

(2)

+3.06
-2.24
+7.13

+19.04
+15.41
+15.16

+4.56
+5 . 02
+2.38

-1.92
+12.29
+2.80

78,312

+11.72

+5.27
-3.40
+9.29

137.28
139 39
120 02

April
May
June

+9.29
+4.03
+2.30

+10.76
+7.01
+5.75

+9.32
+6.64
+5.80

+15.76
+18.36
+19.22

+3.55
+4.98
+5.29

+3.70
+5.65
+2.15

87,700

131 90
147 89
170 50

July
August. . .
September

+5.16
+7.4.2
+6.81

+10.85
+11.65
+10.65

+10.75
+10.85
+10.16

+21 . 06
+20 02
+22 42

+5.32
+2.78
+4.31

+2 15
+7.45
+0.12

82 / / /

16Q ^Q
232 Q/

1 88

October
November
December

+1.69
+2.82
+6.74.

+8.21
+6.70
+11.30

+9.30
+7.69
+11.66

+22 70
+20 72
+27.11

-0.98
-3.62
+0.25

-18.97
-8.00
-4.99

1 / / 77

1 88

90,600

119 84
121.72

1 87

+2.79
+13.38
+11.02

+U.06
E>+20.70
+18.68

+15-52
[H) +20. 93
+19.28

+23 62
+23 21
+29 71

+1.04
+1.22
+5.94

•p-^ Q7
-r+t; Aa

+8.19

+15.54
+15.17
+11.98

+31.16
+34.75
+38.82

+7.96
+5.92
+6.30

r-8.26

+9.12

+12.08
+13.86
+10.75

July
August
September

+10.11
+3.17
-2.11

+7.46
+2.91
+2.90

+10.47
+6.57
+6.19

+A5.20
+44.18
+40.67

+9.13
+9.92
+11.99

jH)iH-20.42

October
November
December

+0.53

+7.11
+6.55
+10.16

+9.07
+8.66
+10.79

+36.52
+38.94
@)p+48.12

+11.09
[H>+15.19
+10.80

r-5.54
r-0.95
r-4.58

r+13.43
p+14.81
+13. 17

+15.54
pfl6.66

+10.60

January
February
March.. .

-4.6?

1 80
1 80
1 82

2*51 Q2

1971
January .
February .
March
April
May
June

IH>+n.io

0.00

+2.63

113 456

168 80
150 90
224.65

128,148

153.80
249.49
165 . 84

r+1 70

r+6 64
r-0.18
r-7.20

r+16 . 03

0)142,852

147.03
155.56
115.85

pl!7,548

144.70
129.00
111.32

1 81

1.72
1.81

1.75

1.94

[H}1.68

1972
January
February
March

r+3.16
p+13.64
+11. 97

3

3

(N/0

+7.64
(NA)

r-8.51
+7.66

3

H>101.62
191.33

(NA)

+1.31

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by 0); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
EDSeries numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 33, 34 and 40.

•'•Beginning with October 1970, data include conventional mortgages held by the Government National Mortgage Association.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.
Average for weeks ended March 1, 8, and 15.

2

80




MARCH 1972

!!€!»

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS

HJ MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.

LAGGING INDICATORS

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

....

Minor Economic
Process

n k
Resgr v es

93. Free
reserves ®
Year
and
month
(Mil.dol.)

1970

9.00

(Percent)

97 /90
97 9O^
Q# 3 / A

84 770
ft^ p/ ~\

6 QQ

6 49
7 00
6 96

9 09
9 08
9 00

6 57
6 75
6 63

6 53
6 20
6 25

9ft 7ft9
99 021
99 3ftn

ftc; sag
ftA 22D

5.93
5.29
4.86

9.14
8.97
8.13

6 59
6 24
5 97

6 39
5 93
5 46

99 29ft

ft/ A/q
ft3 9ft2
83 566

8 07

4. 49
3.77
3.32

7.63

5.92
5 84
5.71

5.36

99 104

7 5A
7.62

5 23
5 17

99 206
99 701

rft3 235
rft3 709
•pft3 ft51

A c;Q

3.78
4.14
4.70

7.76
E>8.25
8.15

5 75
0)5.96
5.94

5 37
5 90

100 364

•pft3 1 63

5.95

100 857
101 382

r83 716
r83 701

5.91
5.78
5.56

[H>6.06
5 82
5.37

102,143
102 970
103 969

r83 101
T-g/ / -27
|H)r86 139

A 51

fHP>7 97
7 92
7 ft/

5.46
5.48
5.62

5.06
5.20
5.21

104,893
106,159
107,0^9

r85 677
r85,598
r85 , 216

6.18

7 75
7 62
7 59

5.62
5.67
5. 64

5.12
5.28
7
5. 26

|R) 107, 696

-704.
-795
-701

6.4.8
7 04
6.74

9.09
9 63
9 70

6 Q/

-1,217
-682
-335

6.50
6.4J.
6.24

-49

(Percent)

6.53

April

-208
-305

118. Mortgage
*67. Bank
rates on short- yields, resiterm business dential ®
loans, 35
cities® 1 2

%

8.84
9.00

October
November
December

r
Rates on Business
Loans and Mortgages

6 65
6 36
6 03

7.91
7.16
6.71

July
August
September

lnt( rest

6 86
6 44
6 39

-799
-819
-781

June

5

114. Treasury 116. Corporate 115. Treasury 117. Municipal 66. Consumer *72. Commercial
bond yields ® bond yields® bond yields ® installment
bill rate ©
and industrial
debt
loans outstanding, weekly reporting large
commercial
banks
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil.dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil.dol.)
(3)

January
February
March

May

Outstanding Debt

Money Market Interest Rates

57#

96 996
97 19/

98 996
99 017

ft3 205
ft/ 229
ft/ / {£>

8 86

8

1 Q

£c /on

8

rp>

ftA °3n

fNA")
9 29
9 ?O

9 1n
11
Q lA

9

9 11
9 O7
9 m
8 97
8 90
8 40

1971

-91

January
February
March

-127
-120

-8
-18

April

May

-322

June
July
August
September

ifi>-658
-606
-295

E) 5-40
5.08
4.67

8.24
8.14
7.90

October
November
December

-153
-M/f

4.49
4.19
4.02

7.72
7.67
7.54

+58

(MA}

6 01

fV-NnJ
WA^
7 32

7 37
7 75
7 ft9

1972
January
February
March

+153
p+129
4
+152

5

3.40
3.18
3.69

6

7.36
7.57
7. 52

6

(WO

r84 507
85,145
4
85, 254

7/9
7.46

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Current high values are
indicated by |H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 , 5 , 1 4 , 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by
0).
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;

and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 35, 36 and 42.

-'•No current high. 2The survey in which these data are collected was revised, beginning with the 1st quarter 1971; thus, data
from that point are not strictly comparable with earlier data. 3See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 4Average
for weeks ended Iferch 1, 8, and 15. 5Average for weeks ended March 2, 9,- 16, and 23. 6Average for weeks ended March 3, 10, and
17. 7Average for weeks ended March 2, 9, and 16.

KCII


MARCH 1972


81

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing

M COMPOSITE INDEXES

Year

and
month

811. Twelve
leaders, prior
to trend adjustment
'same com16, 17, 19, 23, ponents as
29, 31, 113) in series 81U)
810. Twelve
leaders, reverse trend adjusted ^series
1.5,6,10,12,

820. Five
coinciders,
estimated
aggregate
economic
activity
(series 41,43,

47, 52, 56)

830. Six
825. Five
coinciders,es- laggers
ti mated aggre- (series 44,
gate economic 61, 62, 67,
activity,
71, 72) 2
deflated
(series 41, 43,
47, 52D,56D)

Leading Indicator Subgroups
813. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1, 2,

3,5)

814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,

12, 29)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

January
February
March

116.2
116.5
115.0

103.7
103.7
101.9

121.0
121.2
121.2

115.5
115.4
115.4

-131.9
131.4
131.2

98.3
96.6
94.1

108.0
108.4
105.6

April
June

114.9
113.8
114.4

101.5
100.1
100.3

121.6
121.0
121.0

115.6
114-7
114.5

131.3
131.0
131.0

93.2
92.9
93.3

July
August
September

116.2
115.2
114.5

101.5
100.2
99.3

120.9
120.8
120.4

114.2
114-1
113.7

131.7
132.3
131.9

October . . .
November
December . . .

113.6
113.7
116.0

98.1
97.8
99.5

118.4
117.4
118.9

111.3
110.1
111.3

January
February
March

118.7
120.1
r!22.6

101.4
102.2
r!03.9

120.6
121.3
121.9

Apri 1

June

rl24.3
rl25.5
125.4

rl05.0
105.6
105.2

July
August
September

r!27.0
r!27..5
rl28.2

October....
November
December .

815. Inventory 816. Profitinvestment
ability
and pur(series 16,
chasing
17, 19)
(series 23,

J17. Sensitive
inancial flows
series 33, 85,

112, 113)

25, 31, 37)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

103.9
105.4
104.8

96.5
95.8
95.9

99.2
100.0
98.8

106.1
106.3
106.0

104.2
102.4
103.6

95.5
92.8
92.9

100.6
100.5
100.6

94.4
92.9
90.9

106.5
106.3
105.6

104.2
102.5
102.1

93.5
93.6
93.6

101.4
100.1
98.3

130.7
129.3
127.5

89.4
90.4
91.9

105.6
106.2
107.9

101.3
102.6
101.8

93.3
92.0
93.3

93.7
91.4
96.5

112.9
113.4
113.8

125.9
124.2
rl24.2

93.1
93.7
94.1

108.9
108.6
r 110.0

102.9
102.3
102.7

95.6
98.1
r99.0

98.6
100.4
r!04.5

122.6
123.6
125.2

114.3
114.8
116.5

1-123.7
z-123.4
rl24.2

r94.2
r94.1
r94.2

rl09.7
rill. 5
rill. 9

103.3
102.6
101.1

rlOO.5
rlOl.l
rlOO.6

r!06-l
r!05.4
r!07,l

rl06.1
rl06.1
1-106.3

123.8
123.9
125.1

114.8
114-7
115.9

rl24.5
z-125.9
1-126.0

r93.7
r93.2
r92.6

rl!3.2
113.8
rl!2.4

102.1
102.3
101.2

rlOQ.6
rlOO.3
rl01.4

r!09.3
DrllO.O
r!08.6

r!30.0
r!31.1
r!32.7

1-107.4
r!07.9
1-108.3

125.2
326.3
r!27.0

115.9
117.0
rll7.5

rl25.9
1-125.7
rl26,8

r93.3
r95.5
r95.7

rl!5.0
rll5,3
rll6.1

101.0
100.9
rl02.1

r 101.1
rlOO.6
r!02 .4

r!04.5
rl04.8
rl05 .1

134.0
E>3134.7

109.5
D3109.7

129.2
E>4130.4

119.5
§>* 120.1

z-127.9
(H)pl28.9

S)p97.3
(M)

E>rll7.2
P115.4

r!04.1
[H)pl06.6

r!03.8
[H>pl04.2

p!07.7
(N/0

1970

May

1971

May

1972
January .
February
March
April

May

June
July
August
September .
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Current high values are
indicated by [H); for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45f and 93), current low values are indicated by
H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series
preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "shortlist" of indicators (chart B8). TheV indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated;
and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 37 and 38.
-"Reverse trend adjusted index of 12 leaders contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators.
2
Data beginning with January 1971 are not strictly comparable with earlier data because of technical changes in the collection
of data for one of the components (series 67).
Deludes series 12, 16, 31, and 113 for Which data are not yet available.
4
Excludes series 56 for which data are not yet available.




82

MARCH 1972

BCII

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

AGGREGATE SERIES

Year
and
quarter

410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value

61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

c. First
b. Second
anticipations as anticipations as
percent of actual percent of actual
(Percent)

(Bil. dol.)

(Percent)

412. Manufactur- 414. Condition
ers' inventories, 9f manufacturers'
total book value inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low

(Bil. dol.)

(Percent)

416. Adequacy
435. Index of
of mfrs.' capac- consumer
sentiment
ity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive
(First quarter
(Percent)
1966:100)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth Quarter..

72.52
73.94
77.84
77.84

102.7
104.4

78.22
80.22
81.88
78.63

102.3
100.5

79.32
81.61
80.75
83.18

101.6
100.9
102.0
101.0

99.5

101.5

102.8
100.0
101.5
100.3

157.6
159.4
163.0
163.7

92.3
93.9
95.5
96.7

.18
19
22
22

43
38
39
41

95.1
91.6
86.4
79.7

103.6
103.4
101.7
104.6

163.4
164.1
166.1
160.3

97.9
98.7
99.6

100.5

23
23
21
20

38
36
33
33

78.1
75.4
77.1
75.4

102.6
101.1
102.6

170.5
175.0
174.1
175.6

100.5
100.5
.100.3
101.5

19
20
r!8
16

26
21
20
19

78.2
81.6
82.4
82.2

ra!86.6
a!87.7

ral01.5
al01.9

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

99.0

103.9

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

99.1

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

ra87.54
ra89.09

AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.
Year
and
quarter

420. Family income of households compared to a year ago, households reportinga. No change b. Higher
in income
income
(Percent)

(Percent)

c. Lower
income

425. Mean probability of substantial
changes in family income of households
a. jncrease
in income

(Percent)

(Percent)

430. Household purchases of new cars

a. Actual
b. Increase c. Decrease (quarterly)
less decrease in income
(Ann. rate,
(Percent)
(Percent)
mil, cars)

2-quarter moving average
b. Actual
(Ann. rate,
mil, cars)

c. Anticid. Anticipated
pated
as percent of
(Ann. rate, actual
mil, cars)
(Percent)

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

52.7
45.6
46.2
48.3

35.4
41.3
r40.0
37.3

11.3
12.4
13.0
13.6

16.5
18.1
18.6
17.6

11.3
12.0
13.0
11.6

5.2
6.1
5.6
6.0

7.1
7.1
7.7
6.3

7.4
7.1
7.4
7.0

8.0
7.9
7.5
7.8

108
111
101
111

50.3
49.8
48.5
50.8

35.0
35.1
37.6
34.9

rl4.1
14-5
12.5
r!3.6

20.1
19.9
18.2
16.7

13.8
12.9
10.9
9.4

6.3
7.0
7.3
7.3

7.1
8.5
8.2
8.7

6.7
7.8
8.3
8.4

7.7
8.0
7.6
7.6

115
103
92
90

51.4

35.1

12.6

17.2
19.9
17.0
15.7

10.5
12.4
10.2
9.0

6.7
7.5
6.8
6.7

15.9

9.7

6.2

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .

8.4
8.0

1973
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; ttp", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 43, 44, and 45.


MARCH 1972


KCII

83

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
quarter

D61. Business expenditures for new
plant and equipment, all industries
a. Actual b. Second
expendianticipations
tures
(1-Q span) (1-Q span)

c. First
anticipations
(1-Q span)

D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade1

D440. New orders,
manufacturing1

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

D444. Net sales, manuD446. Number of employfacturing and trade1
ees, mfg. and trade1
Actual

(4-Q span) (4-Q span)

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

83.3
66.7
75.0

a.7

94.4
83.3
61.1
55.6

58.3
63.9
66.7
53.3

81
80
76
72

82
85
83
80

70
74
68
66

78
79
77
76

34
78
76

86
88
86
83

59
60
58
58

60
60
60
59

77.8
47.2
58.3
19.4

69.4
61.1
25.0
44.4

38.9
55.6
66.7
50.0

66
64
60
55

76
71
74
74

61
56
55
56

70
66
70
66

70
66
64
62

74
73
78
76

54
54
51
50

58
56
56
54

50.0
61.1
44.4
75.0

33.3
58.3
47.2
72.2

41.7
58.3
63.9
50.0

70
70
74

76
78
85
81

63
64
66
70

71
74
80
78

70
72
74
76

78
80
86
84

48
52
53
55

55
58
58
56

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

58
60

83

76
82

82
86

75.0
44.4

77.8

DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Year
and
quarter

D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade1
Anticipated

Actual

Selling prices
D460. Manufacturing
1
anri traHp

Anticipated

Actual

Anticipated

Actual

75
79
78

85
85
86
85

79
80
80
80

91
90
90
89

84
84
84
86

78
75

79
76
78
75

87
85
86
84

77
80
82

86
86
85
86

80
81
80

74
76
68.
70

76
76
75
75

85
86
73
-.74

82
82
82

86
84
73
74

82
80
82
82

62
61
64
58

84
82
82

78
78
80
77

60
62
65
65

80
80
71
72

78
78
78
78

66
61
62
58
62
62
62
60

Anticipated
(4-Q span)

78
80
80
81

66
68
66
66

Actual
(4-Q span)

84
84
85
85

71
70
70
68

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

Actual

D466. Retail trade1

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

D464. Wholesale trade1

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

D462. Manufacturing1

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .

80
80
80

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

61
66

68
74

68
72

70
78

67
74

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
1

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.




84

MARCH 1972

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

E9

Year
and
month

500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 512)

(Mil. dol.)

502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,

total

FOREIGN TRADE

506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles and parts

(1957-59=100)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

508. Index of export orders, 512. General imports, total
nonelectrical machinery

(Mil. dol.)

Revised1

1970
January
February
March

+183
+267

3,406
3,546

+156

April
May
June

244

3,375

1,174
1,561
1,578

252
261

3,222
3,279
3 219

+148
+324
+462

3,410
3,661
3,727

1,493
1,175
1,342

261
264
257

3 262
3 337
3 265

July
August
September

+450
+245
+130

3,704
3,591
3,553

1,258
1,357
1,674

268
259
257

3 254
3,346
3,423

October
November
December .

+190

3,688
3,499
3,569

1,384
1,364
1,884

229
241
239

3,498
3,428
3,402

+71

+168

1971
January
February
March

+141
+250

3,733
3,691
3,815

1,518
1,472
1,469

236
225
234

3,683
3,550
3,565

April
May
June

-232
-201
-358

3,521
3,783
3,661

1,431
1,242
1,503

244
237
246

3,754
3,983
4,019

July
August
September .

-297
-256
+265

3,493
3,678
4,511

1,298
1,450
1,578

239
256
244

3,790
3,934
4,245

October . . .
November
December

-821
-227
-274

2,710
3,160
3,859

1,475
1,28.1
rl,766

248
262
284

3,531
3,387
4,132

-319
-598

4,221
3,806

pl,427
(NA)

P300
(NA)

4,540
4,403

+50

1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.

"""See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ MARCH 1972
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ItCII

iii.

85

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

Year
and
quarter

250. Balance
on goods and
services

515. Balance
517. Balance
on goods, services, on current
and remittances
account

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

519. Balance on
current account
and long term
capital
(Mil. dol.)

521. Net
liquidity balance

522. Official
reserve transactions balance

530. Liquid
liabilities to all
foreigners *@

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

1969
33$
296
708
669

52
-22
386
328

-292
-543
15
-80

-147
-2,019
-1,070
356

-1,234
-3,019
-1,996
163

1,337
1,659
-679
384

34,930
39,043
42,655
41,776

881
1,045
995
670

543
683
636
319

125
292
192
-166

-1,297
-570
-340
-832

-1,254
-868
-675
-1,024

-2,864
-1,404
-2,075
-3,478

42,972
43,380
44,201
43,291

828
-329
P-394
(NA)

400
-812
p-921
(MO

-1,283
-3,237
P-3,101
(NA)

-2,529
-5,807
-9,312
p-4,526

-5,558
-5,756
-12,169
P-6,145

45,481
51,393
p60,754
(NA)

First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1,139
-5
-39
P-1,152

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter .
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter

532. Liquid
and certain
nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies1®
(Mil. dol.)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

534. U.S.
official
reserve 2
assets ®

(Mil. dol..

535. Allocations to the
U.S. of
Special
Drawing
Rights
(Mil. dol.)

Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants
Income on investment, military
Merchandise, adjusted3
Goods and services
transactions, other serv., total
252. Exports 253. Imports 536. Exports 537. Imports 540. Exports 541. Imports
(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil, dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil, dol.)

(Mil, dol.)

n
16,911
16,006
17,732
17,162

15,758
16,057
16,743
16,964

19,404
20,451
22,262
24,396

17,350
16,328
15,527
14,487

28,960
34,584
p45,890
(NA)

14,342
13,504
p!2,131
(NA)

11,995
14,222
14,574
14,811

11,657
13,926
13,866
14,142

7,510

9,490
9,602
9,888

7,589
9,566
9,278
9,397

4,485
4,732
4,972
4,923

4,068
4,360
4,588
4,745

217
217
217
216

15,374
15,806
15,930
15,795

14,493
14,761
14,935
15,125

10,241
10,582
10,696
10,461

9,728
9,831
9,992
10,319

5,133
5,224
5,234
5,334

4,765
4,930
4,943
4,806

180
179
179
179

16,547
16,636
p!7,054
(NA)

15,377
16,610
p!7,060
(NA)

11,030
10,720
pll,481
(NA)

10,761
11,760
p!2,0!8
(NA)

5,517
5,916
P5,573
(NA)

4,616
4,850
p5,042
(NA)

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are incidated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only 1and donot reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised, "p", preliminary;
V, estimates; "a , anticipated; and "NA", not available; SDR indicates Special Drawing Rights.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49, 50, and 51.
2
3
•"•Amount outstanding at end of quarter.
Reserve position at end of quarter.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes
transfers
under
military
grants
and
Department
of
Defense
sales
contracts
(exports)
and
Department of Defense purchases (imports).
4
Data for first quarter 1970 to date are not comparable with earlier data.


86


MARCH 1972 KCII

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

Year
and
quarter

Income on Investments, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)
Income on investments
542. U.S. invest- 543. Foreign
ments abroad
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil, dol.)
(Mil, dol.)

Military transactions
Travel
545. Payments 546. Sales under 547. Military
544. Receipts
expenditures
from foreign trav- by U.S. travelers military conabroad®
elers in the U.S. abroad
tracts
(Mil, dol.)
(Mil, dol.)
(Mil, dol.)
(Mil, dol.)

Transportation and other services
549. Payments
for

548. Receipts
from

(Mil, dol.)

(Mil, dol.)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

2,471
2,585
2,716
2,767

929
1,078
1,242
1,315

498
518
519
523

820
849
864
857

407
329
442
336

1,198
1,187
1,221
1,251

1,109
1,300
1,295
1,297

1,121
1,246
1,261
1,322

2,925
2,791
2,855
2,839

1,348
1,322
1,284
1,213

556
573
589
601

925
1,010
1,021
997

274
447
327
433

1,182
1,255
1,211
1,203

1,378
1,413
1,463
1,461

1,310
1,343
1,427
1,393

2,897
3,241
p2,898
(NA)

1,072
pi,228
(NA)

596
586
P618
(NA)

967
1,086
pl,095
(NA)

507
545
P466
(NA)

1,174
1,214
1,181
P
(NA)

1,517
1,544
Pl,591
(MO

1,361
1,478
pl,538

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter..
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..

(NO

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter...
Fourth quarter..
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.
Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers

Year

and

Securities investments

Direct investments

quarter

560. Foreign investments in the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)

561. U.S. investments
abroad
(Mil. dol.)

564. Foreign purchases 565. U.S. purchases
of foreign securities
of U.S. securities
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)

570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
(Mil. dol.)

575. Banking and
other capital transactions, net
(Mil. dol.)

1969
First quarter...
Second quarter •
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..

246
164
152
270

926
999
899
430

1,388
365
396
963

365
499
506
125

-841
-1,344
-1,304
-652

-29
-426
21
-126

486
105
218
160

1,358
1,257
897
934

304
374
720
792

210
-93
488
337

-1,237
-364
-890
-1,203

-198
-122
-138
120

92
-16
p-319
(NO

1,370
1,393
pl,399
(NA)

559
196
P564
(NA)

353
388
P224
(NA)

1970
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter..

1971
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter .

-1,240
-1,262
p-1,206
(NA)

-832
-658
P-2,130
(NA)

1972
First quarter...
Second quarter.
Third quarter ..
Fourth quarter..
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.


MARCH 1972


87

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Qj FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Defense Indicators

Receipts and Expenditures
Year
and
month

600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (-), national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1970
January .
February
March

601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

264. National
602. Federal
defense purexpenditures,
national income chases
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance

621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement

(Mil. dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

(x)
-4! 5

191.6

April
May
June

-14!!

193^8

July ..
August
September ...

-15.4

191^3

October
November
December

-26! 5

196 !i

75!i

189 .*3

209! 8

73 \2

C1)
1.90

1,559
1,486
1,771

3.37
3.60
3.42

1.38
1.89
1.85

1,825
1,332
1,542

4.18
3.67
3.19

3.07
1.85
2.00

2,717

6,035
6,407
6,251
7,166
7,195

1,459

rl,902
rl,912

3.12
3.81
3.97

2.12
2.02
2.05

3,464
2,746

7,055
6,928
6,793

r2,038
r2,010
rl,528

3.85
3.25
3.28

2.17
2.36
1.58

2,508

6,991

6,257
5,830

rl,686
rl,457
rl,340

3.50
3.23
3.63

1.50
1.57
1.68

2,751
2,112

7,960
6,696
5,470

r2,577
rl,672
rl,127

4.25
3.63
3*02

2.90
2.15
1.47

3,082
r3,078
r2,769

r7,156
r6,753
r7,656

r2,001
rl,700
r2,096

3.25
3.95
3.69

1.95
2.11
2.01

r2,392
r3,209
r3,0l6

7,738

2,634
(N4)

r3.79
P3.37

r3.12
pi. 76

3,690

(N/0

6,118

7,111

74^2

(Mil. dol.)

3.45
3.59
3.53

6,505
206.7

(Bil.dol.)

1,807
1,523
1,669

6,516
6,519

6,643
207^9

(Bil.dol.)

625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions

P)

7,045

78!9

647. New or648. New orders, defense ders, defense
products indus- products
tries

1.74
1.58

2,855
2,623

2 ',904
2,591

2,545
2,896
2,782
2,113

3,181

1971
January
February
March ..

. .

-16 ! 2

196 !5

April ...
May
June

-23!?

July
August
September

-26.7

197 .*8

October
November
December

p-25.6

p203.1

197!?

212! 7

22l'.4

72.6

71.1

224! 6

7o'.2

228 ! 7

71 !i

2,619

3,398

2,367

1972
January
February
March

(MO

April
May
June
Juiv
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; a p" f preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
1
Bee ^New Features and Changes for This Issue," page ill.




MARCH 1972

BCII

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Q| PRICE MOVEMENTS

Year
and
month

Fixed weighted price index,
gross private product
211. Index

(1958=100)

1970
January
February
March

129 .*9

July
August
September

131.4

137!8

138!Z

(1967=100)

78 lc. Change
over l-month
span
(Percent)

78 lc. Change
over 6-month
span
(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967=100)

784. Services®

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

0.5
0.6
0.4

6.7
6.5
6.0

113.5
114.3
114.4

110.3
110.5
110.7

117.1
118.0
119.3

4.7

115.2
115.7
116.3

0.5
0.5
0.4

5.5
4.9
5.2

114.9
115.1
115.0

111.4
112.0
112.4

120.1
120.7
121.4

4.7

116.7
116.9
117.5

0.3
0.3
0.5

5.0
4.7
4.9

115.1
115.1
115.5

112.6
112.9
113.5

122.0
122.7
123.5

5.2

118.1
118.5
119.1

0.5
0.3
0.5

4.9
4.8
4.1

115.5
115.6
115.5

114.0
114.5
115.3

12^.1
124.9
125.6

5.8

119.2
119.4
119.8

0.3
0.2
0.2

3.6
4.1
4.0

115.5
116.1
117.2

115.5
115.4
115.6

126.3
126.6
126.6

5.0

120.2
120.8
121.5

0.3
0.6
0.5

3.9
4.1
3.9

118.2
118.4
119.0

115.8
116.6
117.0

126.8
127.5
128.2

3.6

121.8
122.1
122.2

0.2
0.3
0.1

3.6
2.8
2.7

119.1
119.2
118.9

117.1
117.5
117.5

128.8
129.4
129.8

1.8

122.4
122.6
123.1

0.1
0.2
0.4

2.8
3.3

118.9
119.7
120.5

117.5
117.5
117.9

130.0
130.4
130.8

123.2
123.8

0.3
0.5

120.3
122.4

118.1
118.0

131.5
131.8

• ••

July
August
September

781. Index ®

783. Commodities less
food

113.3
113.9
114.5

135 !o

136^6

782. Food

All items

4.6

133^1

April
May
June

October
November
December
1972
January
February
March

(Ann. rate,
percent)

128^4

April
May
June

October
November
December
1971
January
February
March

21 lc. Change
over l-quarter
spans

Consumer price indexes

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; V, anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.

ItCII


MARCH 1972


89

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Qj PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con.
Wholesale price indexes
Year
and
month

750. All
commodities ®

58. Manufactured goods®

751. Processed
foods and feeds

752. Farm
products

Industrial commodities
55. Index®

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

55c. Change
over l-month
spans

55c. Change
over 6-month
spans
(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Percent)

1970
January
February
March

109.3
109.7
109.9

108.8
109.1
109.3

111.7
112.0
112.4

112.9
113.5
113.6

108.3
108.7
108.9

0.3
0.2
0.2

3.8
3.9
3.8

April
May
June

109.9
110.1
110.3

109.6
109.7
110.0

112.6
111.5
110.9

112.2
109.8
110.0

109.3
109.7
109.8

0.4
0.5
0.3

3.9
3.8
3.8

July..
August
September

110.9
110.5
111.0

110.6
110.6
110.8

111.8
112.3
112.4

111.0
109.5
112.6

110.0
110.2
110.4

0.3
0.2
0.2

4.1
3.3
3.4

October
November
December
1971
January
February . .
March

111.0
110.9
111.0

111.2
111.2
111.2

112.2
112.5
111.6

110.2
108.5
108.2

111.3
111.3
111.7

0.5
0.1
0.3

3.3
3.2
3.3

111.8
112.8
113.0

111.8
112.4
112.7

111.5
113.2
114.3

109.0
113.4
112.0

112.2
112.5
112.8

0.3
0.1
0.3

3.3
4.0
4.1

April
May
June

113.3
113.8
114.3

113.0
113.5
113.8

114.3
115.0
114.1

113.6
112.4
114.3

113.3
113.7
113.9

0.5
0.4
0.3

4.9
5.7
5.0

July .
August.
September

114.6
114.9
114.5

114.5
114.9
114.7

114.5
114.8
114.0

111.0
114.2
110.9

114.5
115.1
115.0

0.7
0.5
-0.1

3.4
2.5
2.4

October....
November
December
1972
January
February
March

114.4
114.5
115.4

114.5
114.5
115.1

114.6
115.2
116.8

113.8
113.8
117.0

115.0
114.9
115.3

-0.3
0.0
0.3

1.7
1.4

116.3
117.3

115.7
116.5

116.8
118.7

117.9
120.2

115.9
116.5

0.4
0.5

April
May
June
Juiv
August
September
October
November
December

. .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57•

90




MARCH

1972

BCII

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

R| WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
859. Real spendable
avg. wkly. earnings
nonagri. prod, or
nonsupv. workers

Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adj.1
Year
and
month

Current dollar earnings
740. Index

(1967=100)

Real earnings

740c. Changeover
1-month spans

740c. Change over
6-month spans

(Percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

74 lc. Change over
1-month spans

741. Index

(1967=100)

74 lc. Change over
6-month spans
(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Percent)

(1967 dol.)

1970
January
February
March

117.4
118.0
118.8

0.3
0.5
0.7

6.1
6.0
6.3

103.5
103.4
103.8

-0.2
-0.1

April
May
June

119.3
120.0
120.6

0.4
0.6
0.5

7.0
7.9
7.4

103.6
103.7
103.8

-0.2

July
August
September

121.4
122.5
123.2

0.7
0.9
0.6

7.0
6.9
7.4

104.2
104.9
104.8

October..
November
December

123.4
124.1
125.0

0.2
0.6
0.7

7.6
6.9
6.8

104.5
104.8
105.0

January.
February ...
March

126.0
126.7
127.3

0.8
0.6
0.5

7.7
8.3
7.1

Apri 1
May
June

128.1
129.1
129.3

0.6
0.8
0.2

130.0
130.9
131.3

0.5
0.7
0.3

r6.6

131.4
131.6
r!33.5

0.1
0.2

r6.7
P5.1

rl.4

r!34.3
P134.2

p-0.1

-0.6
-0.4

0.2

90.55
90.53
90.48

1.4
2.9
2.1

90.02
89.62
89.98

1.9
2.1
2.3

90.23
90.53
89.16

0.3
0.2

2.6
2.0
2.6

89.42
89.60
89.88

105.6
105.9
106.2

0.6
0.3
0.3

3.9
4.1
3.0

91.27
91.77
92.09

6.4
6.8
6.4

106.6
106.9
106.5

0.4
0.3

2.5
2.6
2.4

92.32
92.06
92.33

5.3
3.8

106.9
107.3
107.5

1.6
0.9

91.95
92.35
91.80

0.4
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.7
-0.1
-0.3

1971

July
..
August .
September

.

.

October
November
December

-0.4

0.4
0.4
0.2

107.4
107.3
r!08.5

-0.1
-0.1
rl.l

r!08.9
pi 08. 2

p-0.6

r3.8
r3.8

pi. 8

92.82
92.89
r93.71

1972
January
February
March

rO.6

rO.4

r94.85
P94.80

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
1

Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.

BCII


MARCH 1972


91

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Q WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy

Year
and
month

(1967=100)

1970
January
February .
March

Real compensation

Current dollar compensation
745. Index

745c. Change
over i-quarter
spans
(Ann. rate,
percent)

746. Index

(1967=100)

7.2

...

119!?

April
May
June

12l! 5

July
August
September

124! 2

October
November
December

126 !o

Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries®

746c. Change
over l-quarter
spans
(Ann. rate,
percent)

0.8

748. First
year average changes

749. Average
changes over
life of
contract

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

11.3

-0.2

16.3

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967=100)

-1.6
102.1

3.1

10.9

103.7
4.2

16.0

103.1

6.1

11.6

106.1
5.9

(1967=100)

770C.
Change over
l-quarter
spans

858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm

103^6

105.0
8.9

770. Index

8.0

105.1
6.3

Output per man-hour, total
private economy

104^6

105^3
0.4

10.6

0.2

7.5

106! 2

105^3

104! i

1971
January
February
March

128 ! 5

April
May
June

136!?

July
August
September

132 \3

October
November
December

p!33.*7

5.1

8,5

plO.5

107." 6
6.8

2.3

plO.4

106.5

107.4
1.1

P15.0

4.0

p8.4

107.1

108.' 5

pl.9

p!09.0

1.9

P8.3

108 .'5

P4.3

105.8

106.' 9

108.*2
5.2

6.2

P8.5

P14.7

P3.5

pll.9

pl09!Z

p!08.4

1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.

92




MARCH 1972

ItCIt

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Q ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP
207. Gap (potential less actual)

Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars

Year

and
quarter

206. Potential level1

205. Actual value

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

1969
First Quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

721.4

717.2

724.2
727.8
725.2

724.3

731.4

-4.2
+0.1
+3.6

738.6

+13.4

746.4
754.3
762.3
770.4

+26.6
+33.2
+39.0
+54.5

729.7
735.8
740.7

778.5
786.7

751.3

803.5

+48.8
+50.9
+54.4
+52.2

1970
First quarter
Second quarter.....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

719.8
721.1
723.3

715.9

1971
First quarter
Second quarter. ....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

795.1

1972
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The 'Vindicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a",anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 60.
1
Based on a trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th
quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from 4th quarter 1962 to the 4th quarter 1965, 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 4th quarter 1969 and
4.3 percent from 4th quarter 1969 to 4th quarter 1971.

ItCII

MARCH 1972



93

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

ffl
850. Ratio,
output to capacity, manufacturing

Year
and
month

851. Ratio,
inventories
to sales, manufacturing
and trade

(Percent)

(Ratio)

852. Ratio,
unfilled orders to shipments, manufacturers1
durable goods
industries

(Ratio)

ANALYTICAL RATIOS
853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer
goods

(1967=100)

854. Ratio,
personal saving to disposable personal
income

(Ratio)

860. Ratio,
help-wanted
advertising
to persons
unemployed1

857. Vacancy rate in
total rental
housing ©

(Ratio)

(Percent)

1970
January
February
March

pso!?

1.59
1.58
1.59

3.17
3.14
3.U

95.5
94.4
95.5

0.069

1.011
0.945
0.844

5*.0

April
May
June

P79.7

1.61
1.58
1.58

3.U
3.03
3.00

93.5
92.4
91.9

0.079

0.763
0.709
0.689

5.0

July
August
September

p78.*2

1.59
1.59
1.60

2.97
2.97
2.89

91.4
91.1
91.3

0.082

0.649
0.623
0.563

4^9

October
November .
December .

p74il

1.63
1.66
1.62

2.93
2.97
2.97

88.0
87.8
86.3

0.083

0.500
0.477
0.471

4^8

January
February
March

p74i7

1.60
1.57
1.56

2.98
2.97
2.87

83.5
85.0
84.3

0.081

0.445
0.469
0.463

4.9

April
May
June .

p75!Z

1.56
1.55
1.54

2.83
2.72
2.58

83.0
81.6
81.8

0.086

0.459
0.456
0.515

4*9

July
August
September .

p73*.9

1.55
1.55
1.55

2.74
2.74
2.71

83.0
83.4
85.0

0.081

0.515
0.495
0.473

5.*3

October
November
December

P74.0

1.56
1.53
rl.54

2.70
2.64
2.73

r82.l
r82.^

0.078

0.484
0.473
rO.494

5^3

pl.50
(MO

2.59
(M)

r82.5
p82.6

. .

1971

83.3

1972
January
February
March

0.499
pO.533

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 61.
''Beginning with January 1972, the 1970 Census is used as the benchmark for computing the unemployment component of this series.
Prior to January 1972, the 1960 Census is used as the benchmark.

94




MARCH 1972

BCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

R DIFFUSION INDEXES: Leading Indicators

Year
and
month

Dl. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing (21
industries)

1-month
span

9-month
span

D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
(35 industries)

1-month
span

9-month
span

Dll. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
The Conference Board
(17 industries) I

1-quarter
span

3-quarter
span

D34. Profits,
D19. Index of stock
mfg.,
D23. Index of industrial
prices, 500 common
materials prices (13
FNCB
2
industrial materials)
(about 1,000 stocks (75 industries)©
corporations)

1-quarter
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

?)

1970

January
February
March

23.8
28.6
31.0

April
May
June

9.5
9.5
26.2

47.1
48.6
50.0

51.4
42.9
37.1

47

23.8
26.2
52. 4

11.9
14.3
7.1

54.3
62.9
54.3

42.9
45.7
34.3

53

32

July..
August
September .

69.0
19.0
9.5

9.5
19.0
42.9

45.7
44.3
45.7

48.6
65.7
65.7

35

24

October
November
December

73.8
71.4
71.4

42.9
59.5
45.2

25.7
65.7
60.0

60.0
65.7
51.4

47

35

January
February
March

61.9
45.2
76.2

83.3
83.3
85.7

60.0
45.7
60.0

71.4
74.3
82.9

59

April
June

42.9
71.4
54.8

78.6
57.1
64.3

44.3
70.0
54.3

80.0
68.6
51.4

July
August
September

64.3
38.1
11.9

69.0
81.0
66.7

50.0
58.6
34.3

October
November
December

81.0
83.3
r64.3

P85.7

51.4
68.6
52.9

29

43.3
23.3
82.7

5.5
5.6
5.6

47

16.4
2.7
47.9

52

a. 7

51

50.0
30.8
57.7

61.5
42.3
38.5

6.9
25.0
27.8

61.5
53.8
19.2

34.6
34-6
38.5

77.8
96.5

31.9
46.5
72.2

46.2
42.3
46.2

19.2
15.4
15.4

40

72.2
48.6
98.6

95.8
97.2
98.6

30.8
42.3
19.2

15.4
30.8
46.2

29

r59

95.8
87.5
71.5

98.6
95.1
91.0

46.2
61.5
80.8

46.2
46.2
46.2

35

r56

r60

84.0
41.7
27.8

97.2
77.8
56.9

80.8
38.5
46.2

61.5
69.2
69.2

65.7
72.9
r77.1

76

P53

r60

44.4
23.6
71.5

31.9
43.1
44.4

57.7
61.5
53.8

53.8
53.8
46.2

p82.9

P41

r51

18.1
2.8
95.8

50.7

46.2
34.6
61.5

.. •

1971

May

. .

4

53.8

84.6

1972

r31.0
P78.6

January
February
March

r65.7
p50.0

89.6
70.1

4

65.4
73.1
76.9

April

May
June
July
August
.
September

....

October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent pf series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are
placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed
on the 1st month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the
index. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 62.
^•This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board•
2
Based on 75 components through March 1970, on 73 components through May 1970, and on 72 components thereafter. Component
data are not shown in table E4 but are available from the source agency.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
4
Average for March 7, 14, and 21.


MARCH 1972


95

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Qj DIFFUSION INDEXES

Year
and
month

Roughly Coincident Indicators

Leading Indicators-Con.
D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas)1
1- month
span

9-month
span

D41. Number of employees
on nonagricultural payrolls
(30 industries)
1-month
span

6- month
span

D47. Index of industrial
production (24 industries)
1-month
span

6-month
span

D58. Index of wholesale
prices (22 manufacturing
industries)®
1-month
span

6-month
span

D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month
span

9-month
span

(2)

1970

January
February
March

31.9
25.5
44.7

4.3
2.1
11.7

40.0
41.7
36.7

33.3
31.7
28.3

12.5
66.7
31.2

33.3
29.2
27.1

86.4
77.3
72.7

79.5
77.3
75.0

60.9
58.7
50.0

78.3
82.6
82.6

April
May
June

25.5
63.8
42.6

6.4
12.8
2.1

26.7
20.0
26.7

25.0
18.3
16.7

60.4
31.2
31.2

54.2
41.7
50.0

68.2
68.2
56.8

77.3
84.1
86.4

82.6
54.3
39.1

91.3
82.6
82.6

July
August
September

59.6
42.6
31.9

12.8
25.5
55.3

33.3
25.0
55.0

16.7
20.0
20.0

64.6
33.3
33.3

33.3
33.3
37.5

61.4
70.5
77.3

75.0
81.8
77.3

56.5
65.2
50.0

78.3
69.6
67.4

October
November
December
1971
January..
February
March

53.2
57.4
70.2

55.3
51.1
46.8

31.7
38.3
58.3

25.0
31.7
33.3

33.3
25.0
54.2

37.5
39.6
41.7

75.0
61.4
56.8

72.7
81.8
81.8

67.4
54.3
47.8

56.5
78.3
91.3

38.3
61.7
42.6

46.8
61.7
72.3

51.7
41.7
40.0

48.3
65.0
46.7

50.0
50.0
29.2

66.7
70.8
70.8

79.5
75.0
72.7

77.3
81.8
81.8

43.5
65.2
73.9

80.4
87.0

April
May
June

48.9
44.7
40.4

57.4
21.3
48.9

76.7
80.0
33.3

33.3
46.7
65.0

79.2
56.2
47.9

54.2
54.2
66.7

68.2
72.7
72.7

90.9
95.5
86.4

73.9
52.2
73.9

July
August. . .
September

57.4
25.5
46.8

42.6
57.4
63.8

41.7
55.0
91.7

58.3
55.0
r56.7

37.5
47.9
70.8

62.5
54.2
58.3

86.4
90.9
38.6

86.4
72.7
77.3

(M)
87.0
39.1

October
November
December

57.4
66.0
59.6

70.2

51.7
60.0
r48.3

r78.3
p86.7

62.5
r56.2
r58.3

r66.7
p68.8

25.0
45.5
68.2

75.0
77.3

47.8
78.3
r37.0

1972
January
February
March

42.6
46.8

r76.7
P56.7

r62.5
p64.6

86.4
90.9

(m)

P52.2
(NA)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are
placed on latest month, 6-rnonth indexes are placed in the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally
adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; wp", preliminary; and "NA" f not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by®.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 62 and 63.
1

Component data are not available for publication and therefore are not shown in table E4.
Data beginning with August 1971 are not comparable with earlier data due to a revised sample.

2

96




MARCH 1972

ltd!

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change
1971

1972

Diffusion index components
July

August

September

October

November

Januaryr

December

February?

Dl. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING1
(Average weekly hours)
All manufacturing industries

o

40.0

-

39.8

-

(38)

(64)

39.5

+

39.8

+

(81)

(12)

40.1

+

(83)

40.3

-

40.0

+

(79)

(3D

(64)

40.4

Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures

+
+
+

41.9
40.5
40.1

o
-

41.9
40.2
39.9

-

41.7
40.1
39.4

+
+
+

41.8
40.7
39.7

+
+
+

41.9
40.8
40.0

+ r42.0
o r40.8

-

-

39.9

+

Stone, day, and glass products
Primary metal industries

-

41.8
40.6

o
-

41.8
38.8

+

41.4
39.5

+
+

41.8
40.1

+
o

41.9
40.1

41.6
+ r41.0

Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical

+
o

40.7
40.7

+

40.2
40.8

-

39.3
40.5

+
+

40.1
40.8

+
+

40.4
41.1

+
+

Electrical equipment and supplies
Transportation equipment

+
-

40.1
39.5

+

40.0
39.9

-

39.6
38.5

+
+

39.9
40.5

+
o

Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries

+
+

39.8
39.2

o
o

39.8
39.2

-

39.7
38.7

+
+

39.9
38.9

Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures

+
+

40.5
39.6

o
-

40.5
37.1

o
-

40.5
36.6

-

Appa rel and other textile products

+

40.3
35.8

+
-

40.7
35.7

-

40.4
35.4

Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing

+
-

42.4
37.6

o
-

42.4
37.5

-

Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products

+

41-4
42.6

+
+

41.5
43.4

Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c
Leather and leather products

+

40.3
37.7

-

40.1
37.6

41.6
40.8
40.5

+
+

42.9
40.6
40.8

+
-

41.8
40.4

+
+

42.1
41.1

40.9
41.3

-

40.5
41.0

+
+

41.1
41-4

40.1
40.5

+ 40.3
+ r41.7

-

40.0
40.5

+
+

40.4
41.2

+
+

40.2
39.1

+

+ r39.2

+
-

40.5
39.0

+

40.3
39.5

40.0
34.7

o
+

40.0
35.6

+ r40.3
o r35.6

-

40.0
34-7

o
-

40.0
33.7

+
+

40.8
36.0

+
+

41.1
36.2

-

r41.0

-

r35.9

+
-

41.3
35.8

+

41.2
36.2

41.9
37.4

+
+

42.0
37.5

+
+

42.3
37.6

o

r42.3

-

37.5

o

42.1
37.5

+
+

42.8
37.6

+
-

42.1
42.9

-

a. 5
42.4

-

41.4
41.8

+ r41.7

-

r42.7

o
-

41.7
42.3

+
+

41.9
42.8

-

40.0
37.3

+
+

40.3
37.9

+
+

40.6
38.3

+ r40.9
- r37.9

+

40.7
38.1

+
+

41.0
38.9

40.4

0

Nondurable goods industries:

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES 1
(Millions of dollars)

All durable goods industries

+ 31,955

- 31,758

(50)

Percent rising of 35 components

- 31,026

(59)

+ 31,126

(51)

(34)

-

32,138 + 35,099
(66)

(53)

(69)

- 34,105
(50)

+ 4,848
- 3,585

+
+

5,221
3,613

+
+

5,248
3,651

+ 5,292
+ 4,737

-

5,154
4,725

o

+ 4,757

+ 5,732
- 4,743

+

5,381
4,851

- 6,970
+ 6,286

+
+

7,575
6,657

-

+
+

+

8,100
6,874

- 4,434
+ 3,489

+

4,184
3,577

+ 4,517
- 3,520

-

Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery.

- 4,823
+ 4,827

+ 5,072
- 4,584

+ 5,105
+ 4,628

Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries

+
+

+ 7,923
+
6,418

-

7,130
6,126

2

+ 4,809
+ 3,644

Primary metals
Fabricated metal products

8,062
6,320

+ 32,564

+

4,488
3,353

-

5,154
7,233

6,561

9,032
6,758

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are all included in the
totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ MARCH 1972
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ItCII

97

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1971

1972

Diffusion index components
July

August

September

October

December

January

- 106.8

+ 110.7

November

March1

February

D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price
index (1967 =100)

104.7

+ 106.1 + 107.5

- 107.4

- 106.9

+ 113.0 + 116.7

(Dollars)
(62)

(58)

Percent rising of 13 components

Copper scrap (Ib)
Lead scrap (Ib )
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin (Ib )
Zinc (Ib )
Burl ao (vd }

.464
.054
29.787
1.701
.163
.193

Cotton (lb.)f 12-market average ....
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops(lb.)
Hides (Ib.)
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow (Ib.)

+
o

.272 + .284
.266
.273
.903
.909
.166
.169
17.839 + 17.966
.162 + .180
.070
.071

+
-

(54)

(46)

+

.291
.265
+ .905
+ .173
- 17.893
.178
+
.071

.294 + .302
.266
.264
.903 + .904
+
.174 + .185
- 17.745 - 17.662
.171
+ .179
.067
.069

+
+

(65)

(62)

(35)

+ .472
.436
.451
.404
+ .056 o .056
.055
o
-055
+ 31.163 + 32.673 + 35.522 - 30.738
+ 1.704 - 1.688 - 1.681 + 1.691
.170 o
+ .170 o
.170
.169
.187 + .192 o .192
.187

+
+
+
+
+

+

o
+
+

.421
.414 +
.053
o
-053
29.774 _ 29.685
1.691 + 1.694
.170
.171
.208 + .225

+ .327
+ .265
+ .918
o .185
- 17.453
+ .178
.060

(77)

(73)

+
.446
+ .056
+ 30.000
+ 1.736
o
.170
+ .237

+ .465
+
.063
+ 35.611
+ 1.802
+ .173
.219

+
+

-348
.269
.914
+ .208
- 17.419
+ .185
+ .062

+ .354
+ .273
+ .916
+ .220
- 17.402
.184
.060

+ .360
+ .280
+ 1.128
+ .248
+ 17.709
.170
.057

+ r71,603
(77)

+ 71,686
(57)

D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 3
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls . . .Percent rising of 30 components

Ordnance and accessories
+
Lumber and wood products 0
Furniture and fixtures
+
Stone, clay, and glass products. . . .
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
+
Machinery, except electrical
+
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products. . .+
Miscellaneous manufacturing
o
+
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
+
Apparel and other textile products. .
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
o
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c. . +
Leather and leather products
Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities. .
Wholesale trade
+
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate. . . . o
+
Service
Federal government
+
State and local government

70,531 o 70,529 +
(42)
(55)
93
500
380
496
965
1,016
1,156
1,169
1,244
257
318
1,188
56
841
1,179
515
661
582
115
450
259
597
3,228
4,476
3,835
11,323
3,806
11,921
2,643
10,169

+
+
+
o
+
+
o
o
o
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

94
503
375
497
901
1,016
1,159
1,167
1,248
256
318
1,179
56
841
1,180
520
658
577
115
447
264
609
3,219
4,428
3,844
11,379
3,804
11,946
2,650
10,193

o
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-

70,853
(92)
94
509
383
502
926
1,026
1,175
1,185
1,251
260
319
1,185
58
842
1,189
533
661
582
116
458
261
616
3,250
4,460
3,865
11,408
3,821
11,962
2,674
10,181

o

70,848 + 71,042 + r71,!85
(60)
(52)
(48)

92
93
519
+
515 +
388
+
384 +
o
502 +
504
922
+
932
- 1,020 - 1,018
- 1,171 + 1,177
+ 1,190 - 1,189
- 1,216 + 1,230
261
+
261 o
316
314
- 1,156 + 1,177
56 +
58
851
+
845 +
+ 1,193 + 1,198
530
532
661
+
663
581
581 o
116
o
116 o
458
+
460
261
260 +
521 +
525
+
3,290 + 3,320
4,442 4,434
+ 3,873 o
3,874
- 11,397 + 11,404
+ 3,834 + 3,851
+ 11,996 + 12,044
2,669
o 2,675 + 10,260 + 10,318

+
+
+
-

+
o
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+

90
r5l6
r391
502
r920
r 1,011
rl,174
rl,191
r 1,221
259
r319
rl,175
57
r855
rl,l85
r529
661
r580
rl!8
r459
r26l
r607
r3,245
r4,465
r3,884
rll,431
r3,860
r!2,089
r2,669
10,369

o
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+
+
o
+
o

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
_
+

r90
r519
r394
r510
r930
rl,0!6
rl,170
rl,195
rl,218
r259
r324
rl,!85
r58
r863
rl,!80
r529
r664
r580
rl!4
r463
r262
r6l5
r3,3!8
r4,511
r3,908
rll,543
r3,876
r!2,135
2,667
rlO,419

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
o
+
+
+

+
+
+
+
o
+

89
509
393
507
929
1,026
1,174
1,206
1,215
264
328
1,176
59
865
1,185
528
663
580
115
464
264
613
3,236
4,499
3,929
11,585
3,882
12,185
2,667
10,463

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA = not available,
p = preliminary, r = revised.
^•Average for March 7, 14, and 21.
2
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census. The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted.
3
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for latest month shown are preliminary.




98

MARCH 1972

HOI

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1971

1972

Diffusion index components
July

September

August

October

November1*

January37

December37

February P

D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1967-100)
All industrial production

- 106.1 (38)

Durable manufactures:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products

+

9S'.2
110.8

+
+

100.2

+

110.9

Lumber, clay, and glass
Clay glass and stone products*
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous manufactures

Noneletrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments

Nondurable manufactures:
Textiles, apparel, and leather.
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products

105.3

+

(48)

81.0

-

108.0

106.2

+ 106.4
(62)

(71)

+
-

93 '.9
105.7

+
95 .7
+ 106.9

+
-

+
+
+
109.1 +

110.5

+
+
+
+

+

108.7 +
115.4 -

108.8 +
113.1 +

+

99^9
126.1 -

94*.l

94.9
88.5

+

(56)

o

91 !Z +
106.9 +

93.3
99.6
91.6

+

+

111.2

-

110.4

109.4
113.9

+ 109^9
+ 117.3

99^6 +
122.0 +

100.8
122.2

+
+
+

111. '6
99.5
87.6

101.7 +

116 .4
102.9

95!o
97.8
91.7

107.6

+

94.4

107.7

108.2

+

(65)

+ ioi!i
-

+
106.4 +

108.5

+

97.0
86.7

110.5
96.0
84.1

+

-

109.3

+

+

noii +

no! 5

+

117.9

- 10CL3
+ 122.6

+
-

- iio!i

+

+

101.6
120.5

+

10o!4 +
123.9 +

101.2
124.3

110.2
99.5
82.9

+
+
+

112.8 101.1
+
86.8

- 116 !l +
+ 104.3
+

119!5
104.5

+
+

120.0 +
104.7 +

+
12l!Z
106.1 +

130.7 116.0 +
127.6 -

13C)!3
118.3
126.6

+
+

+
130.8 +
118.1
127.9

129.2
131.9
(MO

116.7

+
+

115.6
117.3

115.9
117.7
(MO

+ 100.0
- 87.2

125.0 +
114-8 +
128.0 +

127.6
115.8
129.9

+
-

129.7
113.7
129.6

- 128.2
+ 115.7
- 129.0

+
+
-

Foods and tobacco
Foods
Tobacco products

+

115.2

+

114.0
98.2

+

111.9
100.3

+
-

+

96.6

o
-

109.4
109.2

o
-

109.4
108.8

+
-

109.7
107.7

29.1
- 107.3

+
-

93 !5

+
+

104.8

+

109.7

+
+

+
+

90.2

91.4

90.1

117.9
(MO

+

-

+

ir?!8

91.1

111.8

111.3
123.2

Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products

+

93 '.3
101.1

101.0 +
+
89.3
111.1 +

+
119.4 +

+
o

115.5
101.0

102!8
107.7

93.7

94^4
99.4
89.8

(N/0

+

-

109.0

(62)

(58)

95.3
98.9
92.4

97.3
91.1

Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing

Mining:
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals

107.0 +

114^3

91.7

-

98.2

98.5

117.1

117.0

107.2

+
-

112.4 106.0 +

136.7

+

137.7

55.7

93.4

92.7

(N/0

(M)

102.2 +
108.1
(MO

+

102.4
(Ml)

(MO

90.0

(N/0

+
+

(N/0

93.8

114.3

104.8
108.1 +
+
129.6
93.0

112.7
(N/0

107.0

(Ml)

99.6

108.2
112.8
(MO
(MO

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
•'•Data
are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.


MARCH 1972


ltd)

99

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Direction of Change-Con.
1971

1972

Diffusion index components
July

D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Millions of dollars)
- 33,688

All retail sales.

+ 34,655

+ 35,219

(87)

(39)

(NA)
Grocery stores
•••••
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
•
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise). . .

6,878
2,567
3,472
354

+
+
+
+

6,950
2,614
3,511
384

571
389
694
285

+
+
+

577
409
686
294

Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards building materials dealers
Hardware stores

926
480
1,135
303

+
+
+
+

936
509
1,186
307

Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers.
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores . ..

5,910
521
2,433
1,126
734

+
+
+
+
+

6,284
546
2,511
1,169
741

Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel accessory stores
Shoe stores

- 34,964

+

+
+
+
+

571
385
666
284

+

568
384
665
291

+
+
+
+

+

903
477
1,179
309

+
+
+
+

964
510
1,193
322

+
+
+
+

6,809
556
2,523
1,138
754

-

6,564
545
2,494
1,133
748

-

35,574 -r34,896

+ 34,958

(37)

(78)

(48)
6,851
2,632
3,554
382

6,993
2,573
3,618
370

February

January

2

+
+

+
+

December

November

October

September

August

-p34,904

(52)

(NA)

6,944 + r6,994
2,677 + r2,746
3,641 - r3,607
395
r345

+
+

6,864
2,737
3,619
396

(HA)
(N/0
(NO
(NA)

r572
r388
r715
r295

+
+

604
390
673
287

(NA)
(N/0
(NA)
(NA)

+
+

946 +
r954
520 +
r558
1,255 - r 1,249
320
r299

+
+
+
+

1,021
627
1,367
326

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

+
+
+
+

6,690 - 6,162
558
477
2,521 + r2,523
1,141 + rl,l65
r728
742

+
-

6,060
550
2,515
1,142
720

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

115.1 +
(68)

115.7

577
397
699 +
304 -

D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES4
(1967=100)
All manufacturing industries

+

Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and household durables
Nonmetallic mineral products
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and plastic products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products

114.5

+

(86)

Percent rising of 22 components

+
+
+
+

130.6
110.0
123.3
121.9

+
-1+
+

114.9

-

(91)

114.7

-

(39)

116.9
118.2
119.3
119.8

+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+

134.6
110.2
12^.2
125.3
117.1
119.6
119.8
120.3

+
+
-

+
+
+
+

117.3
109.5
114.7
112.8

+
+
+
+

118.0
109.9
114.9
113.0

+
+
+
+

116.0
111.9
92.6
101.9
113.3

+
+
+
+

+
o
+
o

110.5
104.4
107.2
109.7
114.2

+
+
+
+

114.5

o

134.9
110.2
124.3
126.8

+
+
+
+

137.7
110.8
124.6
128.2

+
+
+

114.4
121.6
121.3
120.8

+
+
+
+

115.0
122.0
123.2
121.2

117.8
109.3
115.3
113.1

<o
f
f

117.9
109.3
117.5
113.2

+
f
+
+

118.3
109.5
117.9
113.7

+
+
+
+

118.8
110.0
118.1
114.0

+
o

114-4
112.5
92.3
103.2
113.8

+
t+
o

115.9
113.6
91.5
104.3
113.8

*•
f
+
+
o

117.2
116.7
92.0
105.4
H3.8

+
+
+
+
+

118.8
118.0
92.2
105.9
114.0

o
_
o
+

110.6
103.8
106.2
109.5
115.1

+
_
f

110.7
103.4
106.1
109.4
116.2

+
o
o
+
+

110.8
103.4
106.1
109.5
117.8

+
+
_
+

111.6
103.5
105.5
109.2
119.1

116.5
120.3
119.9
120.2

o

117.8
109.7
113.8
113.0

o
+
o

117.8
109.6
115.2
113.0

o

115.4
112.5
92.7
103.1
113.6

o
+

114.6
112.2
92.5
103.1
113.8

o
o

114.1
112.2
92.4
102.5
113.8

+
+

110.6
104.3
107.3
109.8
114.4

o
o
o
+

110.6
104.3
107.3
109.7
114.7

o
o

110.6
104.2
106.3
109.5
114-7

0

12^.2

125.6

(91)

+
o
+
+

o

+

116.5

+ 132.7
o 110.2
+ 124-2
o 125.3
- 114-9
f 120.4
+ 120.9
f 120.5

131.8
110.2
124.1
125.5
116.3
120.3
119.7
120.2

134.3
110.2

+

(86)

131.3
110.2
124.0
125.3
116.0
120.3
119.7
120.2

o
o
o

o

114.5 +
(46)

(25)

o
o
o

+
+

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling.
NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
2
Data on total retail sales are based on a new sample. Component data shown are based on the new sample beginning
with July.
3
The diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
4
Data are not seasonally adjusted.




100

MARCH 1972

ItCII

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

Q CONSUMER PRICES
Year
and
month

781. United
States,
index of
consumer
prices©

133. Canada,
index of
consumer
prices®

132. United
Kingdom,
index of
consumer
prices©

135, West
Germany,
index of
consumer
prices ©

136. France,
index of
consumer
prices ©

138. Japan,
index of
consumer
prices ©

137. Italy,
index of
consumer
prices ©

47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production

123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production

122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production

126. France,
index of
industrial
production

(1967=100) (1967-100) (1967=100) (1967-100) (1967-100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)

1970
January
February
March

113

114
114

111
112
112

114
114
115

107
108
108

114
115
115

116
117
118

107
107
108

107
108
108

115
116
114

109
110
112

125
125
124

April
May
June

115
116
116

112
112
113

117
117
117

108
109
109

116
117
117

119
118
117

108
109
109

108
108
108

115
114
115

111
109
110

126
124
122

July
August
September

117
117
lid

113
113
113

118
118
119

109
109
109

118
118
118

118
118
122

109
109
110

108
108
107

114
114
113

109
111
112

124
124
125

October
November
December
1971
January
February
March

118
118
119

113
113
113

120
121
121

109
110
110

119
119
120

124
123
124

111
111
112

104
103
105

113
114
114

112
110
112

124
125
126

119
119
120

113
113
114

123
124
125

111
112
113

120
121
121

125
125
125

112
113
113

105
106
106

115
115
116

113
110
109

127
129
130

April
May
June

120
121
122

115
115
115

128
128
129

114
114
115

122
123
123

127
127
127

113
114
114

106
107
107

115
116
116

111
112
112

128
126
130

July
August
September

122
122
122

116
117
117

130
130
130

115
115
116

124
124
125

127
126
131

114
115
115

106
105
106

117
119
120

112
112
113

132
132
134

October
November
December
1972
January
February
March

122
123
123

117
117
118

131
132
132

116
117
117

126
126
127

131
129
129

116
117
117

106
107
108

120
p!20
(NA)

rill
rill
pill

r!35
136
p!35

123
124

(m)

118

(M)

(NA)

127
(MO

130
130

(MO

108
p!09

(N/0

(m)

April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; u p" f preliminary;
V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/MARCH 1972
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ItCII

101

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Q STOCK PRICES

Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION-Continued

Year
and
month

125. West 128. Japan,
Germany, index of
index of
industrial
industrial production
production

121. OECD,1 127. Italy,
European index of
countries, industrial
production
index of
industrial
production

19. United
States,
ndex of
stock
prices, 500
common
stocks®

143. Canada,
index of
stock
prices®

142. United ,46. France,
ndex of
Kingdom,
stock
index of
prices®
stock
prices®

145. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices®

148. Japan,
index of
stock
prices®

147. Italy,
index of
stock
prices®

(1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967-100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100) (1967=100)

1970
January,
February
March

134
136
136

148
152
154

122
124
125

118
119
120

98
95
96

115
113
116

139
135
131

153
149
146

152
149
147

167
165
172

116
116
116

April
May
June

135
138
134-

157
157
163

125
125
124

118
117
116

93
83
82

113
97
94

129
116
113

140
136
132

147
135
129

171
148
149

120
112
106

July
August
September .

135
133
132

164
162
164

124
123
124

118
112
119

82
85
90

93
95
99

115
118
120

136
138
135

127
133
128

150
151
148

103
107
103

October
November
December
1971
January
February
March

135
133
134

163
160
164

125
125
125

117
120
118

92
92
98

101
100
104

128
120
121

137
134
135

126
121
119

145
145
140

101
96
94

Ul
140
138

164
164
168

127
127
126

117
117
116

102
106
108

108
108
109

123
122
120

136
139
137

125
134
137

145
151
161

91
94
93

April . . . .
May .
June

14.0
137
139

165
158
168

127
126
127

113
113
114

112
111
108

112
108
109

131
146
147

137
HI
140

135
138
137

171
172
182

89
85
83

July
August
September

139
132
137

169
168
171

128
125
128

112
104
117

108
106
108

109
107
108

157
158
164

141
135
128

135
136
129

190
179
170

83
82
78

138
135
p!28

167
170
pl68

128
128
pl2.7

rl!6
pl!7
(M)

106
101
108

100
98
107

160
156
165

118
124
r!24

124
124
133

166
168
178

78
75
77

(NA)

p!72
(NO

(M)

112
114
pl!7

rl!7
rp!21
p!23

p!76
rp!80
p!86

rpLU
rp!43
p!52

r!37
rp!47
p!50

r!95
r204
p211

rp79
P77
p74

October .-. ...
November
December
1972
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by © . Series numbers are for
identification only.and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.




102

MARCH 1972

APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered

Monthly series

Cl

1

C

I/C

I/C
for
MCD
span

MCD

Average duration of run
(ADR)

Cl

1

.73
.79
.87
C1)
.89
.57
.83
C1)

2.25
1.79
1.82
1.56
1.56
1.66
2.67
1.82
1.51

1.50
1.48
1.61
1.45
1.51
1.53
1.56
1.56
1.47

10.14
14.33
10.09

7.96
9.09
9.95

C

MCD

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
*1.
*5.
*6
8.
9
*10
*12.
13.
14.

Average workweek of production workers, mfg
Avg. initial claims, State unemploy. insurance
New orders durable goods industries
.
.
Construction contracts, total value
Construction contracts commercial and industrial
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
Index of net business formation
New business incorporations
Liabilities of business failures ®

*17.
*19
*23.
24.
28.
*29.
*41
42
46.
*47.

Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
Stock prices 500 common stocks (§)
Industrial materials prices (§)
New orders, producers' capital goods industries
New private housing units started, total2
New building permits, private housing
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Help-wanted advertising
Industrial production

Jan. '53-Aug. 71 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-Jul. 71 ...
Jan. '59-May 70 ...
Jan. '53-May 71 ...
Jan. '53-Aug. 71 ...
Jan '53-Dec 70
Jan. '53-Dec. '69 ...
Jan. '53-Dec. 71 ...

48.
*52.
53
*54.
55.
*56
58
59.

Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Personal income
Wages salaries in mining mfg construction
Sales of retail stores . .
Wholesale prices, industrial commodities (§)
Manufacturing and trade sales
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods @.
Retail sales, deflated

Jan. '53-July 71 ...
Jan. '53-June 71 ...
Jan. '53-Aug. 71 ...
Jan '53-Sep 70
Jan. '53-Oct 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 71 ...
Jan '53-Oct 70
Jan. '53-Dec. 71 ...

Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Book value mfrs ' inventories of finished goods
Consumer installment debt
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
*71 Book value manufacturing and trade inventories
*72 Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries

Jan. '53-Aug. 71 ...
Jan. '53-June 71 ...
Jan. '53-Sep. 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 71
Jan. '53-June 71
Jan. '53-May 71
Jan. '53-Jul 71

810
81 1
813.
814.
815
816.

12 leading indicators reverse trend adjusted
12 leading indicators prior to reverse trend adj
Marginal employment adjustments
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Profitability

Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan '53-Jan 72
Jan. '53-Apr. 71 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...

.95
.86
.89
.85
.84
.93

825
817.
820
830

5 coincident indicators deflated
Sensitive financial flows
5 coincident indicators
6 lagging indicators

Jan '53-Jan 72
Jan. '53-Apr. 71 ...
Jan. '53-July 71 ...
Jan. '53-July 71 ...

.88
.96
.90
.86

Jan. '53-Aug. '71 ...
Jan. '53-Dec. 70 ...
. . . Jan '53-Jul '71
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan. '53-June 70 ...
Jan '53-Jul 71
Jan. '53-Apr 71 ..
Jan. '53-Apr. 71 ...
Jan. '53-Feb. 71 ...

*62.
65
66.
69.

.

...
...
...
...

0.46
4.86
3.37
6.68
9.08
5.00

.85

0.42
4.32
3.00
6.41
8.94
4.71

.63

2.50

2.23

22.11

21.50

.62
2.49
1.39
4.29
7.05
4.16

.29
.33
2.55

.55
1.74

.98
3.93
6.74
3.60

.13
.25
1.49

0.17
2.10
1.26
1.54
1.12
1.39

.60
.93
2.20

.27
1.59

.88
1.40
1.52
1.73

.25
.20
1.97

2.48
2.06
2.38
4.15
8.00
3.39
1.05
2.41
9.77

3
3
3
5
6
4
2
3
6

2.06
1.09
1.11
2.80
4.44
2.08

3
2
2
3
5
3
1
2
1
1

.81
.62
.69
.98
.84
.69
.51
.64
.76
.74

1.94
2.46
2.65
1.85
1.64
1.85
5.57
2.29
3.50
3.60

1.56
1.63
1.77
1.61
1.53
1.46
1.52
1.58
1.43
1.53

2
1
1
2
1
2
1
3

.53
.49
.84
.96
.67
.76
.89
.74

2.77
5.97
2.82
2.08
4.73
2.54
3.80
1.91

1.50
1.59
1.54
1.56
1.72
1.66
1.64
1.53

13.06
31.57
14.87
17.67
11.21
20.09

2
1
1

2.12
.97
3.75
.51
.13 16.31

1.60
1.44
1.59

10.62
15.79
30.29

16.31

2
1
1
1

.83
.35
.36
.44

1.96
7.62
8.15
4.83

1.55
1.48
1.62
1.67

15.79
31.57
20.00
13.06

3.14
7.62
8.15
4.83

1
1
1
2
2
1

.71
.82
.78
.64
.92
.77

3.87
2.78
3.42
2.01
2.18
3.12

1.54
1.56
1.66
1.46
1.58
1.71

11.00
12.67

3.87
2.78
3.42
4.08
3.01
3.12

1
3
1
1

.60
.95
.61
.37

5.30
2.01
5.29
7.16

1.53
1.68
1.48
1.53

17.54

1
6
6
4
4

.89
t1)
t1)
.90
.98

3.80
1.61
1.41
1.65
1.92

1.64
1.61
1.37
1.52
1.78

6
6
6
6
1
2

?!
?!

1.51
1.47
1.43
1.57

.26
.60

96.00

1.51
1.46
1.40
1.51
1.60
1.55

2
2
3
1
2
1
1

.89
.93
.88
.56
.63
.71
.24

2.72
2.62
1.91
5.07
2.82
3.91

.51
1.25

.76
.74

.89

.50

.68

.40
.58
.80
.91
.19

.28
.52
.60
.45
.16
.57
.16
.39

1.02

.21
.90

.29
.25
.50
.77
.10
.75
.14
.78

.59
.61
.81

.49
.27
.10

.28
.54
.79

1.73

.90
.50
.81

1.57

1.00

1.75

.52
.86
1.29

1.41

.18
.29
.49

1.12

.54
.54
.50
.66
.70
.53

.76
.66
.65
.48
.43
.68

.44

.73
.39
.74
.80

..84

.45
.30

.49
.84
1.72

.67
1.32

.89
2.01

.51
.13

.35
.36
.44
.71
.82
.78
1.38
1.63

.77
.60
2.15

.61
.37

0.84

8.71

14.93
8.22
6.44
8.76

10.85

11.10
7.56

11.00
18.58
14.33
10.15
10.81

8.52

10.32

9.13
9.95
9.95
7.74

8.42

14.80
17.08

3.81
4.10
3.67
3.15
2.91
3.17
4.36
3.14
2.65
3.40
4.08
3.78
3.06
2.81
3.35
5.57
3.57
3.50
3.60
4.80
5.97
2.82
3.15
4.73
4.00
3.80
4.09
3.52
3.75

5.30
3.95
5.29
7.16

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Jan. '53-Oct. 70
Jan. '59-May 71
Jan '63-Jan 71
Jan. '57-Dec. 70
Jan. '59-May 71

...
...

58.
502
506
508
512

Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (§)
Exports excluding military aid
.
Export orders durables except motor vehicles
Export orders nonelectrical machinery
General imports

616.
621
625
647.
740
741

Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Department obligations procurement
Military contract awards in U S
New orders, defense products industries
Average hourly earnings of production workers
Real avg hourly earnings of production workers

July '53-Sep. 70 . . .
Jan. '56-Dec 70 . .
Jan. '53-Dec. 70 ...
Jan. '53-Jul. 71 ...
Jan. '64-Jan. 72 ...
Jan. '64-Jan. 72 ...

750
751.
752
781
782.
783
784.

Wholesale prices all commodities (u)
Wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds
Wholesale prices farm products
Consumer prices all items (j3)
Consumer prices, food
.
Consumer prices commodities less foods
Consumer orices. services (u)

Jan. '53-Sep.
Jan. '53-May
Jan. '53-May
Jan. '53-Oct.
Jan. '53-May
Jan. '56-May
Jan. '56-Oct.

....

70
71
71
70
71
71
70

...
...

...
...
...
...
...
...
...

.21
6.31

.14
6.22

12.17

12.00

6.35
4.52

6.05
4.18

12.31
23.36
19.35
18.22
.44
.23

12.06
23.17
19.26
18.10
.11
.16

.30
.59

.24
.48

1.15

.23
.39
.21
.31

1.02

.11
.26
.12
.07

.16
.75
1.25
1.71
1.13
1.23
2.01
2.37
1.46

.44
.15
.15
.32
.48
.20
.25
.17
.31

.89
8.27
9.64
3.54
3.71
9.82

11.53
8.12

12.39
.26
1.11
1.54
1.50
2.13

.56
1.04

.71
.24

2.74

59.00

1.68
1.63
1.56
1.61
1.71
1.50
1.59

8.52

13.45
13.71
7.95
8.71
6.65
8.52
9.77

11.10
96.00
19.20
9.64

11.00
8.46

12.53
7.86

14.15
177.00

3.80
3.04
2.12
2.88
3.37
2.21
2.15
2.28
2.36

96.00
4.52
4.14
3.65
3.96
5.07
4.21
3.91

59.00

See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.



103

A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Monthly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered

Monthly series

Cl

1

C

I/C

MCD

I/C
for
MCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)
Cl

1

C

MCD

2.80
2.19
2.88

1.59
1.69
1.52

8.50

.76
.57

11.63
9.65

4.87
3.98
4.70

E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
851.
852.
853.
859.

Jan. '53-June 71 ...
Jan. '53-June 71 ...
Jan. '53-Jul. 71 ...

Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods
Ratio, production of bus. equip, to consumer goods
Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers

Jan. '60-Aug. 71 ...

0.92
1.84
1.07

.34

.80

.83
.72

1.94
1.91
1.10

3
3
2

.30

.14

2.11

3

.74

2.11

1.70

9.93

3.61

.90

.55
.37
.51
.65
.62

1.64
2.81
1.91
1.87
2.71

2
3
2
2
4

.87
.98
.91
.94
.78

4.58
2.62
3.28
2.95
3.39

1.63
1.51
1.55
1.55
1.58

24.44
14.67
22.10
13.56

7.30
4.84
5.92
5.50
7.30

.73

2.01
1.24
1.61
1.52
1.60

3
2
2
2
3

.75
.59
.96
.80
.69

2.86
4.70
6.68
9.95
8.36

1.69
1.52
1.72
1.90
1.94

22.00
14.73
15.92
13.06
13.06

2
2
3
2
2

.55
8.32
.61 18.82
.68
3.17
.84
2.75
3.03
.94

1.56
1.77
1.61
1.79
1.77

10.40

8.36
9.95

6.47
3.71
3.92

1
3
3
2

.90
.68
.78
.67

1.80
1.70
1.87
1.67

7.74
7.21
8.36
7.21

3.54
4.22
4.81
4.62

0.81
1.59

0.41

0.72

F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
121.
122
123
125
126

OECD European countries, industrial production
United Kingdom industrial production
Canada, industrial production
West Germany industrial production
France industrial production
.

127
128
132
133
135

Italy industrial production
Japan industrial production
.
United Kingdom consumer prices (§)
Canada consumer prices @)
West Germany consumer prices (Q)

136.
137.
138
142
143

France, consumer prices (u)
Italy, consumer prices ©
Japan, consumer prices @
United Kingdom stock prices (^
Canada stock prices (§)
. .

145
146
147
148.

West Germany stock prices (§)
France stock prices (u)
Italy stock prices©
Japan, stock orices(Qi

....

..

....
..

....

'53-May 71
'53-May 71
'53-May 71
'53-June 71
'53-May 71

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

'53-May 71 ...
'53-June 71 ...
'53-April 70 ..
'53-June 70 ...
'53-June 70 ...

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

'53-May 70
'53-Apr. 70
'53-June 70
'53-June 70
'53-June 70

...
...
...
...
...

3.18
2.78

2.41
2.19

1.81
1.53

1.07
1.13
1.81
1.33
1.43

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

'53-June
'53-June
'53-June
'53-June

...
...
...
...

3.23
3.97
3.63
3.57

2.03
3.30
2.95
2.45

2.27
1.88
1.73
2.24

1.75
1.71
1.09

70
70
70
70

...
...
...
...
...

.90

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

1.08
1.00
1.30
1.67

1.04

1.60
1.71

1.47
1.49

.97
1.21
1.68

1.20

.47
.27
.32

.48
.32
.36

.30
.21
.23

.51
.32
.81

.43
.34
.73

.40
.30
.41

"Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
when MCD is "6."

.90

3.54
2.43
2.40
3.12

©Measures are based on unadjusted data.

9.57

8.28

12.29

7.79
9.57
7.10

14.86
11.50
9.00

22.89

•"•Not shown

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business
Indicators, by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper
57 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957
(reprinted from Journal of Business, October 1957).
"CT is the average month-to-month percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
(i.e., the series after adjustment for measurable seasonal,
trading-day, and holiday variations).
"(Jw is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by
dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"MCD" (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a monthly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-month
spans (Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar.,etc.),2-month spans (Jan.-Mar.,
Feb.-Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span. MCD is the shortest span in months for which the




104

average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,
and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which
fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series
with an MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6".
"I/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally
adjusted series. It is shown for 1-month spans and for spans
of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", no I/C ratio is
shown for the MCD period.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C,
and the MCD curve. The MCD curve is an unweighted
moving average (with the number of terms equal to MCD)
of the seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1—Continued
adjusted series has been successfully separated into an
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom)
month intervals in a random series, the expected value of
component. Finally, ADR is 4.13 for the MCD moving
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
average. This indicates that a 3-month moving average of
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-month interthe seasonally adjusted series (3 months being the MCD
vals in a moving average (MCD) of a random series, the
span) reverses direction, on the average, about every 4
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of
months. The increase in the ADR from 1.75for CI to 4.13
CI is 1.75 for the series on average weekly initial claims,
for the MCD moving average indicates that, for this series,
State unemployment insurance (series 5). This indicates
month-to-month changes in the MCD moving average usually
that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on
reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series,
the average, reverse sign about as often as expected in a
whereas the month-to-month changes in the seasonally adrandom series. The ADR measures shown in the next two
justed series usually do not.
columns, 1.47 for land 12.00for C, suggest that the seasonally
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Monthly Series: Average Actual Changes
Unit of
measure

Period
covered

Monthly series

CI

1

C

I/C

MCD

I/C
for
MCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)
1

CI

C

MCD

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS

3 Layoff rate, manufacturing
20. Change in book value, manufacturers' inventories of
materials, supplies.
21 Avg wkly overtime hrs prod workers mfg
25 Change in unfilled orders, durable goods indus
...
26. Buying policy, production materials, commitments
60 days or longer (§)
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories.
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower
deliveries (G)
....
. . .
...
33. Change in mortgage debt

37. Purchased materials, percent reporting higher
inventories
39 Delinquency rate installment loans2
40. Unemployment rate, married males . .
*43. Unemployment rate, total
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate
85. Change in money supply
93. Free reserves®
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at comm.
banks (M2) .
103. Change in money sup. plus time dep. at banks and
nonbank inst. (M3)
1 12. Change in business loans
*1 13 Change in consumer installment debt
1 14. Treasury bill rate®
1 1 5. Treasury bond yields (u)
1 16. Corporate bond yields ®
1 17. Municipal bond yields (§)
118. Mortgage yields, residential ®

Per 100
employees . .
Jan. '53-June'70. . . . d o
Jan. '53-June 71 . Ann. rate,
bil.dol
Jan. '56-Aug. 71. Hours
Jan. '53-June 71 . Bil.dol

Jan. '53-Jul. 71 .

2. Accession rate, manufacturing

...

Jan. '53-Oct. 70 . Pet. reporting .
Jan. '53-June 71 . Ann. rate,
bil.dol

0.18
.15

0.17
.14

0.05
.06

3.08
2.33

4
3

.81 2.02
.82 2.32

1.52
1.51

9.65
9.95

3.37
5.31

1.46
.09
.51

1.44
.08
.49

.19
.04
.13

7.59
1.97
3.80

6
3
5

C1)
.65
.90

1.61
3.53
1.79

1.52
1.52
1.56

10.52
11.69

2.81
6.85
2.99

5.71

5.57

5.23

6

C1)

1.81

1.65

11.21

4.62

4.05

4.00

7.40

6

1

t )

1.41

1.39

11.05

2.63

1.60

3

.73

2.82

1.79

8.35

4.57

.43

2.60

3

.89

1.87

1.57

11.24

7.61
7.41

1.06
.54

1.83

Pet. reporting .
Ann. rate,
bil.dol

3.58

2.94

1.27

1.11

Jan. '53-Oct. 70 .
Jan.'53-Dec.70.
Jan '55-Mar 71
Jan '53-Mar. 71 .
Jan. '53-Dec. 70 .
Jan. '53-Oct. 70 .

Pet. reporting .
Percent
..do
... .
... do
...do
...do

5.12
.08
.15
.17
.07
.16

4.84
.07
.12
.14
.06
.09

1.54
.02
.08
.10
.05
.12

3.15
3.79
1.56
1.43
1.22
.74

4
5
2
2
2
1

.98
.92
.84
.76
.62
.74

2.17
2.17
3.53
2.60
4.67
4.63

1.69
1.87
1.47
1.47
1.60
1.75

Jan. '53-Nov. 70.

Ann. rate,
percent
Mil dot

2.89
94.10

2.89
74.67

.48
48.15

6.06
1.55

6
2

C1)
.93

1.61
2.05

Ann. rate,
percent

2.46

2.45

.53

4.63

5

.97

1.76

1.68

.66

2.56

3

2.57
.95

2.52
.87

.50
.33

5.09
2.66

.16
.08
.12
.10
.68

.11
.06
.11
.08
.73

.11
.04
.06
.04
.11

Jan. '53-Feb. 71 .
Jan.'55-Dec.70.

Jan '53-June 70
Jan. '53-May 71 .

Feb.'64-Mar71.
Aug. '59-Jun. 71.
Jan. '53-Sep. 70 .

. . do ...
Ann. rate,
bil.dol
do

70 .
70
70 .
70 .
70

Percent
do
...do
... do

Jan. '58-May 71 .

Mil dol

Jan.
Jan
Jan.
Jan.
Jan

'53-Oct.
'53-Oct
'53-Oct.
'53-Oct.
'53-Oct

do

7.66

3.10

9.91
6.72
8.19

4.57
4.59
4.49
3.95
6.29
4.63

1.48
1.58

6.69
9.95

2.82
3.20

1.54

1.50

6.47

2.16

.92

1.73

1.60

9.44

3.61

6
3

C1)
.93

1.69
1.71

1.50
1.56

6.50

3.18
3.13

1.02
1.59
1.65
1.88
6.61

2
3
3
3
6

.66 2.63
.74 2.66
.71 2.39
.83 2.57
C 1 ) 4.63

1.82
1.90
1.69
1.85
2.37

5.25

6

C1)

1.43

10.78

11.78
6.66
8.19
8.88
6.09

3.79
4.69
3.98
4.22
6.12

6.96

2.63

10.65

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
500. Merchandise trade balance

104.3

101.3

19.3

1.54

*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
©Measures are based on unadjusted data,
when MCD is "6." 2Bimonthly series; average changes, MCD, and average durations of run are for bimonthly spans.

1

Not shown

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2

These measures are computed by an additive method. This
method is used for series with zero or negative data and for
other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
expressed in percent.
Thus, "CF is the average month-to-month change in the
seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed
without regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of
measure as the series itself.




"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"F is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part I.

105

A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes
Period
covered

Quarterly series

Cl

1

C

I/C

QCD

I/C
for
QCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)

Cl

1

C

QCD

A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
IQ'53-IIQ'70 . .
IQ'53-IIQ'70 .
IQ'53-IIQ'70
IQ'53-IVQ'70 ....
IQ'53-IVQ'70 ....
IQ'53-IIQ'70
IQ'53-IIQ'70
IQ'53-IIQ'70 .
IQ'53-IIQ'70

1.59
1.18

Per capita disposable personal income, current dol
Per capita disposable personal income, constant dollars
Total personal consumption expenditures, current dollars . . .
Total personal consumption expenditures, constant dollars . .
Personal consumption expenditures durable poods
Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, except
automobiles
... .
234 Personal consumption expend automobiles
236 Personal consumption expend , nondurable goods
237 Personal consumption expenditures services

IQ'53-IVQ'70 ....
IQ'53-IVQ'70 ....
IQ'53-IIQ'70
IQ'53-IIQ'70
IQ'53-IIQ'70

1.17

IQ'53-IIQ'70
ICT53-IIQ70 ..
IQ'53-IIQ'70
IQ'53-IIQ'70 .

2.09
6.00
1.23
1.76

240
241
242
243
244
247.
248
249
252.
253

Gross private domestic investment total
Total nonresidential fixed investment
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures
Fixed investment producers' durable equipment
Fixed investment residential structures
....
Fixed investment, nonresidential, 1958 dollars
Fixed investment in residential structures 1958 dollars
Gross auto product 1958 dollars .
Exports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services

IQ'53-IIQ'70
4.56
IQ'53-IIQ'70
2.56
IQ'53-IIQ'70
2.74
IQ'53-IIQ'70
3.13
IQ'53-IIQ'70
3.44
IQ'53-IVQ'71 .... 2.27
IQ'53-IVQ'71 .... 3.65
IQ'53-IVQ'71 .... 10.90
IQ'53-IIQ'70
3.79
IQ'53-IIQ'70
3.18

260.
261.
262
264.

IQ'53-IIQ'70
Govt purchases of goods and services, total
Total Govt. purchases of goods and services, 1958 dollars . . . IQ'53-IVQ'71 ....
IQ'53-IIQ'70 . . . .
Federal Govt purchases of goods and services
Federal Government purchases of goods and services for
IQ'53-IIQ'70
national defense
IQ'53-IIQ'70 .
State and local govt. purchases, goods and services
IQ'53-IIQ'70
Final sales durable goods
IQ'53-IVQ'71 ....
Final sales 1958 dollars
IQ'53-IIQ'70
Final sales nondurable goods

200
205
210.
215
217
220.
222.
224
225

GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
...
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars
National income, current dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income current dollars
Disposable personal income, constant dollars

226.
227
230.
231.
232
233.

266.
270
273
274
280
282
284
286
288
290
292
294.

Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corp profits and inventory valuation adjustment
Net interest
Gross saving private and government
Personal saving
Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation
adjustment
296 Capital consumption allowances

.61
1.33
1.00
1.66
1.54
1.49
1.07

.82
1.47
1.02
3.05

0.30

.30
.11
.28
.31
.33
.22
.27
.29
.24
.28
.33
.37
1.47

.85
3.62

.44
.20
2.08

.83
1.65
1.15
1.12

.97
1.28
7.94
2.40
1.86

.28
.18
.23
.35
.21
.15
.19
.29

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

2.32

.22
.39
.23
.37
.64

1.84
4.01
1.19
1.73
3.37
2.38
2.13
2.67
3.10
1.87
3.22
5.67
2.63
2.37

1.54
1.07

.60
1.26

.87
1.57
1.51
1.44
1.00
1.13

.73
1.43

.98

3.63
.28
.18 17.25
6.45
.23
4.44
.35
.21
7.67
.15 13.80
.19 13.80
.29
6.27

1.30
1.30
1.33
1.31
1.27
1.35
1.25
1.35
1.35

1
1
1
1
1

.22
.39
.23
.37
.64

6.45
4.44
9.86
5.31
2.76

.46
.90
.37
.12

1
1
1
1

.46
.90
.37
.12

4.31
2.38
6.27

.62
.35
.78
.43
.36
.52
.40
.91
.79

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1

0.19

1.40

0.19

69.00

34.50
69.00

69.00

.62
.35
.78
.43
.36
.52
.40
.61
.91
.79

2.56
4.60
2.30
2.88
3.45
2.59
3.26
1.70
2.76
2.76

1.41
1.33
1.23
1.23
1.33
1.34
1.27
1.23
1.35
1.30

4.31
6.27
4.06
4.31
6.27
4.41
4.69
2.88
5.31
6.27

2.56
4.60
2.30
2.88
3.45
2.59
3.26
2.74
2.76
2.76

5.75
3.00
2.88

1.28
1.32
1.28

13.80

5.75
3.00
2.88

2.65

1.23
1.28
1.30
1.27
1.25

.83
.44
.87
.35
.49

1.82
2.34
1.88

.45
.19
.46
.39
.40

1
1
1
1
1

.45
.19
.46
.39
.40

.24
.61
.35

1.64

.14
.62
.38
.66
.23
.63

1
1
1
1
1
1
2

.14
.62
.38
.66
.23
.63
.50

4.10
3.85
4.67
8.87

2.10

I Q '53-1 1 Q '70 .
IQ '53-1 Id 70

8.98
1.82

5.35

IQ'53-IIQ71
IQ'53-IIQ70
IQ'53-IIIQ'71
IQ'53-IIIQ71
IQ'53-IIIQ71
IQ'53-IIQ70
IQ'53-IVQ'69
ICT53-IVQ71
IQ'53-IIQ70
IQ'53-IIQ71
IQ'53-IVQ70
IQ'53-IIQ70
ICT53-IIQ70

8.37
4.85
5.01
3.85
3.67
1.48
2.90

4.31
2.79
3.00
2.10
2.12

.99

.89
2.28
6.87

.34

3.20
3.81
3.61
4.90

1.40

13.80
13.80

6.90
3.45

2.19
2.35
2.19

.97
.91

11.50
13.80
69.00

6.45
4.44
7.67

1.28
1.25
1.30
1.25

.31
.48
.48

1.68
1.21

7.10

6.45
4.44
9.86
5.31
2.76

1
1
1

IQ'53-MQ'70
IQ'53-IIQ'70
IQ'53-MQ'70
IQ'53-IIQ'70
IQ'53-IIQ'70
IQ'53-IIQ'70 .
IQ'53-IIQ'70

17.25

10.14

.31
.48
.48

1.24

34.50
10.14

1.29
1.37
1.25
1.21
1.19

1.83
1.25
1.91

1.30

7.67
3.63

6.27

.57
.60
.92

.90

9.86
6.90

9.86

1.95
1.48
2.22

.98

7.67

23.00
3.29
3.00
6.27
9.86
2.46
9.86
2.88

23.00
3.14
1.53

1.30
1.35
1.35
1.21
1.28
1.21
1.30

6.25
1.78

.85
.19

1
1

.85
.19

23.00

1.28
1.30

6.35
3.74
3.74
2.96
2.78
1.46
2.65

.68
.75
.80
.71
.76
.21
.37
.39
.46
.18
.93
.19
.28

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

.68
2.61
2.65
.75
2.64
.80
2.47
.71
.76
2.47
.21 13.80
3.94
.37
3.75
.39
4.06
.46
.18
3.84
2.54
.93
.19
7.67
3.63
.28

1.26
1.21
1.23
1.28
1.28
1.21
1.16
1.36
1.28
1.28
1.22
1.30
1.30

.44
.48
.17

1
1
1
2
1

.44
.48
.17
.56
.82

1.16
1.38
1.29
1.31
1.13

2.16

7.10

69.00
7.67
4.60

5.00
4.31

4.31
2.38
6.27

4.60

2.65

23.00

23.00

7.67

10.71
17.25

3.29
3.00
6.27

9.86
5.75
6.27
3.63

9.86
2.46
9.86
2.88

23.00

23.00

6.27
4.06

3.14
2.34

3.14

2.16

23.00

23.00

3.32
4.06
4.62
4.62
4.62

2.61
2.65
2.64
2.47
2.47

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
11
*16
18
34
35
57
*61
63
68.
97
1 10
*200
*205

New capital appropriations manufacturing
Corporate profits after taxes
Corporate profits after taxes 1958 dollars
Net cash flow corporate
Net cash flow corporate 1958 dollars
Final sales
Business expend , new plant and equipment
Unit labor cost total private economy
Labor cost per unit of gross prod., nonfin. corp
Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
Total private borrowing
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars .

....
....
....
....
....

....

.82
.91
4.97
9.77
1.59
1.18

.30
.97
.28
.36
.86
6.36

.30
.30

.73
.79
4.79
6.82
1.54
1.07

13.80

13.80

6.09
6.82
5.31
6.64
3.74
9.86
6.90

3.94
3.75
4.06
3.84
2.54
7.67
3.63

5.67
7.25

3.40
4.83
8.29
2.30
2.25

C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
61 a
410
412
430a
435.

Business expend new plant and equipment
Manufacturers' sales total value
...
Manufacturers' inventories total book value
New car purchases by households
Index of consumer sentiment

IQ'57-IVQ'69
ICT57-IIIQ71
IQ'57-IIIQ71
IQ'59-IVQ70
IIQ'57-IIIQ'68

See definitions of measures at end of part 1.



106

....
....
....
....
....

2.88
2.21
1.46
7.79
2.73

1.12

.83
.25
5.39
1.45

2.55
1.72
1.42
4.41
1.77

1.22

.82

3.40
4.83
8.29
1.96
2.25

11.60
3.13
3.46

A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 1. Quarterly Series: Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Period
covered

Quarterly series

Cl

1

C

T/C

QCD

I/C
for
QCD
span

Average duration of run
(ADR)

Cl

1

C

QCD

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
211.
252.
253.
264
530
532.

Fixed weighted price index, gross private product
Exports of goods and services . .
Imports of goods and services
National defense purchases
Liquid liabilities to all foreigners
Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities to foreign official
agencies

534
536
537
540.

U.S. official reserve assets
Merchandise exports adjusted
Merchandise imports adjusted
Investment income, military sales, and other services,
exports
541. Foreign investment income, military expenditures, and other
services imports

27.00

2.76
2.76
2.65
2.35

1.42
1.35
1.30
1.23
1.29

27.00

.91
.79
.45
.51

5.31
6.27
4.60
2.86

2.76
2.76
2.65
2.35

2

.33

2.11

1.14

3.08

2.60

.82

1
2
1

.63
.62
.82

2.86
1.74
3.08

1.29
1.38
1.29

3.64
3.64
6.67

2.86
3.55
3.08

2.60

.82

1

.82

1.90

1.33

8.00

1.90

1.34

2.07

.65

1

.65

2.50

1.21

6.67

2.50

3.72
1.89
1.73
2.58

3.72
4.77
2.69
2.61
9.02
2.51

2
1
1
1
2
1

.40
.40
.64
.99
.68
.86

1.90
5.00
3.08
2.35
1.43
2.11

1.18
1.18
1.38
1.21
1.25
1.29

3.64
6.67
4.44
3.64
2.22
3.64

3.00
5.00
3.08
2.35
2.17
2.11

1
2
1
1
1
1
1

.85
.58
.38
.47
.16
.36
.50

3.08
1.82
3.63
4.60

13.33

3.08
2.79
3.63
4.60

8.33
3.95

1.25
1.21
1.30
1.25
1.36
1.36
1.27

6.82

8.33
3.95

2
1

.54
.54

1.47
3.17

1.30
1.28

3.63
6.64

3.24
3.17

IQ'65-IVQ'71 ....
IQ'60-IIQ'70
IQ'60-IIQ70
IQ'53-IIQ'70
IQ'60-IQ'70 .

0.92
3.79
3.18
2.19
2.62

0.06
2.40
1.86

IQ'60-IQ'70

0.07

1.06

0.91
2.63
2.37
1.82
2.09

4.38

2.85

2.84

1.00

IQ'60-IQ'70
I Q '60- 1 Q '70
IQ'60-IQ'70

2.19
4.59
4.40

1.14
3.39
2.60

1.80
2.58
3.16

1.31

I Q '60- 1 Q '70

3.49

2.14

IQ'60-IQ'70

2.57

5.64
4.98
3.32
3.88
18.40
3.56

.83

542
543.
544
545
546.
547

Income on US investments abroad
Income on foreign investments in U S
Receipts from foreign travelers in U S
Payments by U S travelers abroad
Military sales to foreigners ....
US military expenditures abroad

I Q '60- 1 Q '70
IQ'60-IQ'70
I Q '60- 1 Q '70
I Q '60- 1 Q 70
IQ'60-IQ'70
I Q '60- 1 Q '70

548.
549
601
602.
745.
746
770.

Receipts from transportation and other services
Payments for transportation and other services
Fed. receipts, natl. income and product accts.
Fed. expend., natl. income and product accts
Avg. hourly compensation, private nonfarm economy
Real avg. hourly comp , private nonfarm economy
Output per man-hour, total private economy

IQ'60-IQ'70
I Q '60- 1 Q 70
IQ'53-IIQ70
|Q'53-IIQ70
IQ'53-IVQ71 . . . .
IQ'53-IVQ71 ....
IQ'53-IVQ71 . . . .

2.60
3.34
2.53
2.15
1.22
.66
.84

1.69
2.42

IQ'53-IIQ70
IQ'53-IIQ71

8.48
.85

6.81

14.24
2.16

.90
.90
.20
.23
.38

1.98
1.84
2.33
1.90
1.20

.63
.75

.91
.79
.45
.51

.63

1.00

.40
.64
.99
1.58

.86
.85
1.31

.38
.47
.16
.36
.50

1
1
1
1
1

0.07

27.00

75.00

6.67
6.27
6.27

75.00
15.00

75.00

E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income
858 Output per man-hour total private nonfarm

.38

4.67

.69

1.46

.54

"Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions; more complete explanations appear in Electronic Computers and Business Indicators,
by Julius Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted
from Journal of Business, October 1957).

and remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations in the seasonally adjusted series became dominated
by cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with
a QCD greater than "2" are shown as "3".

"Cl" is the average quarter-to-quarter percentage change,
without regard to sign, in the seasonally adjusted series
or, if the series contains no measurable seasonal, in the
unadjusted series.

"T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small
values) or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally ad justed
series. It is shown for 1-quarter spa_ns and for spans of
the period of QCD. When QCD is "3", no T/C ratio is shown for
the QCD period.

"C" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained
by dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"QCD" (quarters for cyclical dominance) provides an
estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
cyclical movements in a quarterly series. It is small for
smooth series and large for irregular series. In deriving
QCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the
irregular component and the cyclical component over 1-quarter
spans (1st quarter-2d quarter, 2d quarter-3d quarter, etc.),
2-quarter spans (1st quarter-Sd quarter, 2d quarter-4th
quarter, etc.), up to 4-quarter spans. Averages, without
regard to sign, are then computed for the changes over each
span. QCD is the shortest span in quarters for which the
average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the
cyclical component is larger than the average percentage
change (without regard to sign) in the irregular component,



"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
quarterly changes in the same direction in any series of
observations. When there is no change between 2 quarters, a
change in the same direction as the preceding change is
assumed. The ADR is shown for the seasonally adjusted
series Cl, irregular component I, cyclical component C, and
the QCD curve. The QCD curve is an unweighted moving
average (with the number of terms equal to QCD) of the
seasonally adjusted series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1quarter intervals in a random series, the expected value of
the ADR is 1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36
and 1.75 about 95 percent of the time. Over 1-quarter
intervals in a moving average (QCD) of a random series, the
expected value of ADR is 2.0. For example, the ADR of Cl is
1.47 for the series on the ratio of personal saving to disposable
personal income (series 854). This indicates that 1-quarter

107

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART I—Continued
changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average,
reverse sign about as often as expected in a random series.
The ADR measures shown in the next two columns, 1.30 for I
and 3.63 for C, suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has
been successfully separated into an essentially random component and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is
3.24 for the QCD moving average. This indicates that a
2-quarter moving average of the seasonally adjusted series

(2 quarters being the QCD span) reverses direction, on the
average, about every 3 quarters. The increase in the ADR
from 1.47 for Cl to 3.24 for the QCD moving average indicates
that, for this series, quarter-to-quarter changes in the QCD
moving average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend
movements of the series, whereas the quarter-to-quarter
changes in the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.

A. QCD and Related Measures of Variability-Continued
Part 2. Quarterly Series: Average Actual Changes

Unit of
measure

Period
covered

Quarterly series

1

Cl

C

I/C

QCD

I/C
for
QCD

Average duration of run

(ADR)

Cl

1

.59

2 0.53
.50
2
1 .78
2
.52
.89
2
1 .59

1.68
1.67
2.46
1.60
1.53
3.00

1.35
1.36
1.33
1.33
1.30
1.38

3.63
3.00
3.83
2.76
2.38
4.06

2.72
2.55
2.46
2.72
2.12
3.00

span

C

QCD

A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Ann. rate,
bil.dol ....
...do
IQ '53-IVQ 71
I Q '53-1 1 Q '70 . ... do
IQ'53-IIQ'70 .. . . . d o
ICT53-IIQ70 .. . . . d o
IQ'53-IIQ70 .. . . . d o
IQ'53-IIQ'70 ..

245 Change in business inventories total
246
250
271.
275.
298

Change in business inventories 1958 dollars
Net exports of goods and services
Change in business inventories, durable goods
Change in bus. inventories, nondurable goods
Government surplus or deficit total

2.76
2.62

.84
2.34
1.42
2.89

1.82
1.71

.48
1.48
1.17
1.44

1.60
1.54

.61
1.38

.56
2.46

1.14
1.11

.78
1.08
2.09

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, mfg
22. Ratio of profits to income orginating, corporate,
all industries
. .
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans (g)
245 Change in business inventories total

IQ'53-IIIQ70..

Cents

.48

.28

.32

.87

1

.87

2.59

1.32

3.33

2.59

ICT53-IIQ70 ..
IQ'53-IQ71 ...
IQ'53-IIQ70 ..

Percent
...do
Ann. rate,
bil.dol

.46
.16

.31
.09

.33
.14

.95
.63

1
1

.95
.63

2.56
2.57

1.25
1.44

5.31
4.00

2.56
2.57

2.76

1.82

1.60

1.14

2

.53

1.68

1.35

3.63

2.72

151.9
139.4
134.9

1.32
1.52
1.75
1.71

2
2
2
2
1
1
3
3
2
2
2
2

.52
.56
.61
.90
.96
.96
(X)
.67
.45
.67
.76

1.62
1.62
1.62
1.75
2.10
1.75
1.46
1.52
1.71
1.32
1.52
1.46

1.17
1.17
1.31
1.31
1.50
1.31
1.21
1.41
1.32
1.17
1.28
1.32

3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.50
2.10
1.86
2.56
2.73
2.73
2.16
2.05

2.22
2.22
2.22
1.82
2.10
1.75
2.00
2.44
2.11
2.35
2.35
1.82

1
2
2

.67
.30
.75

2.38
1.36
1.36

1.35
1.15
1.15

4.06
2.50
2.14

2.38
2.33
1.56

1
1
1

.42
.52
.89

3.14
3.48
2.03

1.33
1.33
1.31

5.31
4.06
2.95

3.14
3.48
2.03

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
U.S. Balance of Payments:
250
515
517
519
521
522
560
561
564
565
570
575.
600

Balance on goods and services
Balance on goods services and remittances
Balance on current account
Blance on curr acct and long term capital
Net liquidity balance
Official reserve transactions balance
Foreign direct investments in the U S
U S direct investments abroad
Foreign purchases of U S securities
U S purchases of foreign securities
Govt grants and capital transactions, net
Banking and other capital transactions, net
Fed balance, natl. income and product accts

IQ'68-IVQ71 ..
IQ'68-IVQ71 ..

Mil. dot
... do
...do
...do
.do . . . .
...do
do .
...do
...do
.do ...
...do
...do
Ann. rate,
bil.dol
Percent
...do

IQ'53-IIQ70 ..
IQ '53-11071 ..
IQ'56-IVQ70

...do
Percent
.do ...

IQ '66-11071
IQ'66-IIQ71
IQ '66-11071
IQ'66-IIQ71
IQ'66-IIQ71
IQ '66-11071
IQ'60-IIQ70
IQ'60-IIQ70
IQ'60-IIQ70
IQ'60-IIQ70
IQ'60-IIQ70
IQ'60-IIQ70
IQ'53-IIQ70

748. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, first year
749. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, life of contract .

..
..
..
..
.
..
..
..
..

269.0 i 201.0
267.0 211.5
288.0 235.8
765.2 598.8
800.3 473.8
1,239.0 743.1
79.8
65.7
239.4 190.4

349.4
494.5

776.1
38.0
87.7

181.1
133.4

139.0
114.0

105.2

309.8
327.2

243.5
244.4

143.6
163.6

2.96
1.73
1.48

1.55
1.62
1.43

2.32
1.29

4.37
1.61

1.53

3.69
1.31

75.2

.80

.96
.96
1.73
2.17
1.32
1.52
1.70
1.49

.67
1.26
1.78

C1)

E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
207 GNP gap (potential less actual)
850 Ratio output to capacity, manufacturing
857 Vacancy rate in total rental housing (Q)

* Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 26 indicators.
when QCD is "3."

.24

.68
.15

.16

.42
.52
.89

@ Measures are based on unadjusted data.

1

Not shown

BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
These measures are computed by an additive method. This
method is used for series with zero or negative data and for
other series where it seems appropriate, such as series
expressed in percent.
Thus, "Cl" is the average quarter-to-quarter change in the
seasonally adjusted series. This average is computed without
regard to sign and is expressed in the same unit of measure
as the series itself.




108

"C" is the same for the cyclical component, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures have the same meaning as in part 1.

B. Current Adjustment Factors
19 71

Jul.

5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
13 New business incorporations

1

119.6

99 3

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales,
mfg 2
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies1 3 .
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies
reporting higher inventories

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

88.5

74.3

81.9

94 3

97 7

95 7

Dec.

Jan.

99.9

130.6

145.9

88 3

102 0

104 2

101.6

96.9

+101

+270

+156

+116

104.4

99.9

93.2

86.4

39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans4

72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding .

1£ 72

-15

94.7

98 4

109 5

100 2

106 2

88.2

97.7

100.2

109.3

107.6

105.8

105.5

100.1

508. Index of export orders, nonelectrical
machinery

101.6

94.7

100.7

97.6

94.7

100.3

100.8

616. Defense Department obligations total

102.6

99.9

115.8

104.5

88 7

58.9

81.4

147.8

109.1

90.8

104.1

98.0

113.2

113.5

78.9

99.1

101.4

June

83.4

107 8

105.0
+26

100.3

+10

80.5

-223

99.3

-10

90.2

-142

99.6

D34. Profits, manufacturinq (FNCB)

92.4

-399

99.2

5

112.5

-599

99.7

625. Military contract awards in U.S

May

+268

101.4

621. Defense Department obligations,
procurement

Apr.

96.5

114.9

98.1

99.5

Mar.

Feb.

90.6

+468

110.0

91.0

100.3

99.7

99.9

103.3

99 5

98 4

106 6

101.0

100 4

84 1

89 1

95 1

88 0

141 8

105.4

96 2

83 6

80 9

84 2

74 8

186 3

104.5

87.0

85.1

84.9

78.2

82.9

165 9

93 2

-13

+13

NOTE: These series are not published in seasonally adjusted form by the source agency (except series 13 and D34). Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of Economic Analysis or
the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment
Program.
•'•Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census
Method II seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series. Factors are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, August, October, and December).
5
l-quarter diffusion index: Figures are placed in the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
3




109

C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted

data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.

Monthly

Quarterly

Year
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.
55.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

1
INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES? INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES ®
(1967=100)

II Q

III Q

Annual

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...

52.6
53.5
68.2
75.8
77.9

52.7
53.8
68.6
75.4
77.2

52.8
54.3
69.5
75.4
76.8

52.8
54.8
69.8
75.8

52.9
55.2
69.7
75.8

52.9
56.1
69.8
76.2

53.0
58.1
70.3
76.9

53.1
59.3
71.2
77.8

53.1
59.5
72.0
78.1

53.2
61.5
72.7
78.2

53.2
64.2
73.6
78.4

53.4
66.2
74.6
78.3

52.7
53.9
68.8
75.5

52.9
55.4
69.8
75.9
75.0

53.1
59.0
71.2
77.6
74.2

53.3
64.0
73.6
78.3
74.3

53.0
58.0
70.8
76.8
75.2

1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

74.6
86.6
84.9
84.0
85.1

74.8
87.1
84.9
84.0
84.9

74.8
87.1
84.6
84.3
84.9

74.9
87.0
84.2
84.1
85.0

75.4
86.7
83.9
84.4
85.0

75.9
86.4
83.6
84.7
84.9

77.1
86.0
83.5
85.3
84.9

78.6
85.3
83.9
85.3
84.9

80.4
85.3
84.1
85.2
84.9

81.8
85.1
83.9
85.1
85.0

82.9
85.0
83.8
85.0
85.3

84.8
85.1
83.9
85.1
85.3

74.7
86.9
84.8
84.1
85.0

75.4
86.7
83.9
84.4
85.0

78.7
85.5
83.8
85.3
84.9

83.2
85.1
83.9
85.1
85.2

78.0
86.1
84.1
84.7
85.0

1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...

85.6
89.5
93.0
93.7
94.7

86.0
89.6
93.2
93.4
94.9

85.9
89.9
93.1
93.4
95.2

86.0
90.3
93.1
93.2
95.3

85.8
90.4
93.0
93.1
95.4

85.9
90.3
93.0
93.1
95.2

86*5
90.2
93.4
93.3
95.4

87.3
91.0
93.6
93.7
95.4

88.1
91.4
93.6
93.8
95.4

88.4
91.8
93.5
93.9
95.4

88.7
92.3
93.5
94.2
95.5

89.0
92.7
93.7
94.5
95.6

85.8
89.7
93.1
93.5
94.9

85.9
90.3
93.0
93.1
95.3

87.3
90.9
93.5
93.6
95.4

88.7
92.3
93.6
94.2
95.5

86.9
90.8
93.3
93.6
95.3

1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

95.7
95.2
95.0
94.7
95.3

95.6
95.2
94.8
94.6
95.2

95.6
95.2
94.8
94.6
95.1

95.6
95.1
94.9
94.4
95.1

95.2
94.8
94.9
94.5
95.1

95.2
94.6
94.7
94.7
94.9

95.2
94.6
94.8
94.8
95.1

95.2
94.6
94.6
94.8
95.1

95.0
94.7
94.8
94.7
95.1

95.1
94.5
94.7
94.9
95.5

95.0
94.7
94.7
94.9
95.6

95.0
94.9
94.7
95.2
95.8

95.6
95.2
94.9
94.6
95.2

95.3
94.8
94.8
94.5
95.0

95.1
94*6
94.7
94.8
95.1

95.0
94.7
94.7
95.0
95.6

95.3
94.8
94.8
94.7
95.2

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...

95.9
97.4
99.5
101.5
104.3

95.9
97.6
99.7
102.0
104.9

96.0
97.8
99.7
102.2
105.4

96.0
98.1
99.6
102.4
105.5

96.2
98.5
99.7
102.3
105.5

96.4
98.7
99.7
102.4
105.6

96.4
99.0
99.7
102.4
105.7

96.6
99.0
100.0
102.5
106.1

96.6
99.0
100.2
102.8
106.5

99.1
100.5
103.3
107.1

99.2
100.8
103.4
107.4

99.2
101.1
103.8
107.8

97.6
99.6
101.9
104.9

98.4
99.7
102.4
105.5

96.5
99.0
100.0
102.6
106.1

97.0
99.2
100.8
103.5
107.4

96.4
98.6
100.0
102.6
106.0

1970...
1971...
1972...

108.3

108.7

108.9

109.3

109.7

109.8

110.0

110.2

110.4

111.3

111.3

111.7

108.6

109.6

110.2

111.4

110.0

55-B.

PERCENT CHANGES IN

INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES? INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES? OVER 1-MONTH SPANS1
(MONTHLY RATEi PERCENT)

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1948...
1949...

1.7
-0.4

-0.5
-0.9

0.4
-0.2

1.0
-0.9

0.4
0.5
-0.7

0.4
0.8
-0.4

0.6
0.8
-0.5

0.7
0.6
-0.2

0.8
0.1
-0.3

0.8
-0.1
-0.1

1.0
0.0
-0.1

1.1
-0.4
-0.1

o'*5
-0.5

0.3
0.8
-0.7

0.7
0.5
-0.3

1.0
-0.2
-0.1

0.4
-0.4

1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

0.4
2.2
-0.2
0.1
0.0

0.2
0.6
0.0
0.0
-0.2

0.3
0.2
-0.2
0.5
0.1

0.6
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.3

1.1
0.0
-0.1
0.6
0.2

0.9
-0.1
-0.1
0.6
0.1

1.6
-0.5

1.4
-1.3
0.1

2.0
-0.2
0.0

1.6
-0.3
-0.3

-0.1

0.1

2.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1

0.3
1.0
-0.1
0.2
(Z)

0.9
(Z)
-0.1
0.4
0.2

1.7
-0.7
0.0

-0.3

1.2
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.3

1.6
-0.2
-0.2
-0.1
0.1

1.1
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.0

1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...

0.3
0.5
0.2
-0.1
0.1

0.5
0.2
0.3
-0.3
0.3

0.0
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.3

0.3
0.6
0.0
-0.2
0.1

0.0
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.3

0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0

0.6
-0.2
0.3
0*1
0.1

0.6
0.7
0.0
0.3
-0.1

0.8
0.4
0.0
0.1
0.0

0.4
0.4
-0.1
0.1
0.0

0.3
0.5
-0.1
0.2
0.0

0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.0

0.3
0.4
0.2
-0.1
0.2

0.2
0.3
0.1
(Z)
0.1

0.7
0.3
0.1
0*2

0.3
0.4
(Z)
0.2
0.0

0.4
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.1

1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0

0.0
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1

0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.2
0.1

-0.3
-0.2
0.1
0.2
0.0

0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.3
-0.1

-0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2

0.0
0.0
-0.2
0.1
0.1

-0.2
0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.0

0.1
-0.2
-0.1
0.2
0.4

-0.2
0.1
-0.1
-0.1
0.0

-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.2
0.1

0.0
0.1
(Z)
(Z)
(Z)

(Z)
-0.1
(Z)
0.1

o.o

(Z)
0*1

-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.2

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...

0.0
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.3

0.0
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.5

0.1
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.5

0.1
0.4
0.0
0.3
0.2

0.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
0.1

0.3
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.2

o.o
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.2

0.3
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.4

0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4

0.0
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.3

0.4
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.4

0.0
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.3

(Z)
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.4

0.2
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.2

0*1
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3

0.1
(Z)
0.2
0.3
0.3

0.1
0.2
O.2
0.2
0.3

1970...
1971...
1972...

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.5

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.4

0.2

0.3

0.3

55-C. PERCENT CHANGES IN

-o.i
o.o

INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES? INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES? OVER 6-MONTH SPANS2
(COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATE? PERCENT)

o.o

-0.1

o.o
-0.1

o.o
o.o

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

8.8
4.6

10.3
2.2

12.8
-0.2

10.0
-3.3

9.2
-3.8

...

8.9

10.7

...

7.8

7.5
5.6

...

8.5

12.2
-2.8
-1.2
4.1
0.7

16.0
-3.7

18.5
-4.7

18.9
-5.1

21.5

23.1

21.1

16.9

-0.8

0.2

12.6
-1.9
-1.1
3.8
0.6

19.6
-5.0
-1.1
0.7
-0-1

20.4
-2.9
-0.4
-1.6
1.5

14.3
0.2
-1.1
1.3
0.6

1949...
7.0
6.3
-1.6
3.6
0.9

0.3

2.0

2.2

4.7
10.4
-1.6
2.2
0.5

6.1

5.8

4.9

4.0

2.3

4.1

6*0

4.9

4.3

0.6
1.9
-0.1

0.5
2.0
0.0

-0.3
2.1
-0.1

-0.9
2.2
0.0

-0.7
2.7
0.1

2.1
-0.5
2.7

1.5
0.8
1.5

0.7
1*9
0.1

-0.6
2.3
0.0

0.9
1.1
1.1

-0.8
-1.0
-0.2
1.3
1.0

-0.6
-0.3
-0.5
0.8
1.1

-1.1
0.1
-0.4
0.7
1.6

-0.6
0.3
-0.7
0.6
1.3

-0.4
0.0
-0.4
0.4
1.2

0.0
-0.2
-0.8
0.4
1.4

-0.1
-0.3
0.4
-0.3
0.1

-0.6
-0.7
0.2
0.7
0.2

-0.8
-0.4
-0.4
0.9
1.2

-0.3
(Z)
-0.6
0.5
1.3

-0.5
-0.3
-0.1
0.5
0.7

1.8
3.2
1.8
2.0
3.1

1.7
2.3
2.1
2.1
3.4

2.0
1.6
2.4
2.4
4.0

1.4
0.9
2.8
2.7
4.1

1.7
0.6
3.1
3.2
4.4

1.5
0.8
3.3
3.9
4.0

1.9
0.7
3.2
4.2
3.5

1*1
3.0
0.9
3.0
3.8

1.7
3.5
1.3
2.0
3.2

1.7
1.6
2.4
2.4
3.8

1.7
0.7
3.2
3.8
4.0

1.6
2.2
2.0
2.8
3.7

3.8

4.1

3.3

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.3

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.3

3.6

1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

2.3
13.8
-1.7
0.8
0.0

4.8
11.0
-1.5
2.2
0.7

1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...

2.5
4.4
2.7
-0.8
2.8

1.8
4.4
2.0
-0.4
2.9

4.0
1.7
-0.3
2.4

1.8
0.0
2.3

1.3
1.1
1.5

1.4
1.2
0.8

1.0
1.7
0.5

1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

0.2
-0.3
0.6
-0.8
0.3

-0.4
-0.3
0.5
-0.4
0.4

-0.1
-0.2
0.0
0.4
-0.4

-0.4
-0.7
0.1
0.7
0.0

-0.4
-0.9
0.0
0.8
0.2

-0.9
-0.6
0.4
0.6
0.4

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...

0.8
2.7
0.7
3.5
3.9

1.2
2.8
0.8
2.8
3.8

1.4
3.4
1.1
2.6
3.6

1.4
3.8
0.9
2.3
3.3

2.0
3.5
1.3
1.8
3.2

1970...
1971...
1972...

3.8

3.9

3.8

3.9

3.8

i introduced in this issue.

Digitized for110
FRASER


9.6
0.8
-1.4
4.9
0.9

2.4
0.3

2.1
-0.1

0.7
0.0

-0.3

(MARCH 1972)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series-Continued
This appendix contains historical data (back to 1945 if available) for selected BCD series.
Data are published here for (a) series which have been added to the report, (b) series which
have been revised, and (c) series which have not been shown here for a long time. See the
"Index—Series Finding Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published
for each series. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol © (indicating unadjusted

data) follows the series title. Official source agency annual figures are shown if available.
Such figures are often based on data with more digits or on data which have not been seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual figures based on the monthly
or quarterly data shown here. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables of the report
and may be used to update the tables below.

Monthly

Quarterly

Year
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

781; INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES? ALL ITEMS1
(1967=100)

II Q

III Q

Annual

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1945...
1946...
1947...
1948...
1949...

53.3
54.5
64.4
71.0
72.0

53.2
54.3
64.3
70.4
71.2

53.2
54.7
65.7
70.2
71.4

53.3
55.0
65.7
71.2
71.5

53.7
55.3
65.5
71.7
71.4

54.2
55.9
66.0
72.2
71.5

54.3
59.2
66.6
73.1
71.0

54.3
60.5
67.3
73.4
71.2

54.1
61.2
68.9
73.4
71.5

54.1
62.4
68.9
73.1
71.1

54.3
63.9
69.3
72.6
71.2

54.5
64.4
70.2
72.1
70.8

53.2
54.5
64.8
70.5
71.5

53.7
55.4
65.7
71.7
71.5

54.2
60.3
67.6
73.3
71.2

54.3
63.6
69.5
72.6
71.0

53.9
58.5
66.9
72.1
71.4

1950...
1951..
1952..
1953..
1954..

70.5
76.1
79.3
79.8
80.7

70.3
77.0
78.8
79.4
80.6

70.6
77.3
78.8
79.6
80.5

70.7
77.4
79.1
79.7
80.3

71.0
77.7
79.2
79.9
80.6

71.4
77.6
79.4
80.2
80.7

72.1
77.7
80.0
80.4
80.7

72.7
77.7
80.1
80.6
80.6

73.2
78.2
80.0
80.7
80.4

73.6
78.6
80.1
80.9
80.2

73.9
79.0
80.1
80.6
80.3

74.9
79.3
80.0
80.5
80.1

70.5
76.8
79.0
79.6
80.6

71.0
77.6
79.2
79.9
80.5

72.7
77.9
80.0
8Q.6
80.6

74.1
79.0
80.1
80.7
80.2

72.1
77.8
79.5
80.1
80.5

1955..
1956..
1957..
1958...
1959...

80.1
80.3
82.8
85.7
86.8

80.1
80.3
83.1
85.8
86.7

80.1
80.4
83.3
86.4
86.7

80.1
80.5
83.6
86.6
86.8

80.1
80.9
83.8
86.6
86.9

80.1
81.4
84.3
86.7
87.3

80.4
82.0
84.7
86.8
87.5

80.2
81.9
84.8
86.7
87.4

80.5
82.0
84.9
86.7
87.7

80.5
82.5
84.9
86.7
88.0

80.6
82.5
85.2
86.8
88*0

80.4
82.7
85.2
86.7
88.0

80.1
80.3
83.1
86*0
86.7

80.1
80*9
83.9
86*6
87.0

80.4
82.0
84.8
86*7
87.5

80.5
82.6
85.1
86.7
88.0

80.2
81.4
84.3
86.6
87.3

i960...

87.9

88.0

88.0

88.5

88.5

88.7

88.7

88.7

88.8

89.2

89.3

89.3

88.0

88.6

88.7

89.3

88.7

1962...
1963...
1964...

89.9
91.1
92.6

90.1
91.2
92.5

90.3
91.3
92.6

90.5
91.3
92.7

90.5
91.3
92.7

90.5
91.7
92.9

90.7
92.1
93.1

90.7
92.1
93.0

91.2
92.1
93.2

91.1
92.2
93.3

91.1
92.3
93.5

91.0
92.5
93.6

90.1
91.2
92.6

90.5
91.4
92.8

9Q.9
92.1
93.1

91.1
92.3
93.5

90.6
91.7
92.9

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...

93.6
95.4
98.6
102.0
106.7

93.6
96.0
98.7
102.3
107.1

93.7
96.3
98.9
102.8
108.0

94.0
96.7
99.1
103.1
108.7

94.2
96.8
99.4
103.4
109.0

94.7
97.1
99.7
104.0
109.7

94.8
97.4
100.2
104.5
110.2

94.6
97.9
100.5
104.8
110.7

94.8
98.1
100.7
105.1
111.2

94.9
98.5
101.0
105.7
111.6

95.1
98.5
101.3
106.1
112.2

95.4
98.6
101.6
106.4
112.9

93.6
95.9
98.7
102.4
107.3

94.3
96.9
99.4
103.5
109.1

94.7
97.8
100.5
104.8
110.7

95.1
98.5
101.3
106.1
112.2

94.5
97.2
100.0
104.2
109.8

1970...
1971...
1972...

113.3

113.9

114.5

115.2

115.7

116.3

116.7

116.9

117.5

118.1

118.5

119.1

113.9

115.7

117.0

118.6

116.3

781-B. PERCENT CHANGES IN INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES OVER 1-MONTH SPANS1
(MONTHLY RATEi PERCENT)

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1947...
1948...
1949...

1.2
-0.1

0.6
-0.1
-0.4

1.8
-0.7
-0.1

0.0
1.4
0.1

-0.1
0.8
-0.1

0.6
0.6
0.1

0.7
1.0
-0.9

0.8
0.1
0.0

2.0
-0.3
0.2

0.3
-0.2
-0.4

0.7
-0.6
0.2

1.4
-0.5
-0.4

0.1
-0.2

0.2
0.9
(Z)

1.2
0.3
-0.2

0.8
-0.4
-0.2

0.2
-0.2

1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

-0.4
1.6
-0.1
-0.3
0.2

0.4
1.8
-0.1
-0.1
0.2

0.1
0.2
-0.2
0.1
-0.2

0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
-0.2

0.5
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.3

0.5
-0.2
0.2
0.3
0.0

0.7
-0.1
0.6
0.0
-0.3

0.6
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.0

0.6
0*6
-0.2
0.2
-0.2

0.6
0.6
0.2
0.2
-0.3

0.5
0.5
0.0
-0.3
0.1

1.5
0.6
0.1
0.0
0.0

(Z)
1.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.1

0.4
0.1
0.2
0.2
(Z)

0.6
0*1
0.1
0.1
-0.2

0.9
0.6
0.1
(Z)
-0.1

0.5
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.0

1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...

0*0
-0.1
0.1
0.6
0.2

0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
-0.1

0.0
0.1
0.2
0.7
0.0

0.0
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.0

-0.1
0*4
0.2
0.0
0.2

-0.2
0.4
0.4
-0.1
0.3

0*1
0.5
0.3
-0.1
0*1

-0*1
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.1

0*4
0.1
0.1
0.0
0*3

0.0
0.6
0.0
0.0
0.3

0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.0

0.0
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.1

0.1
(Z)
0.2
0.5
(Z)

-0.1
0.3
0.3
(Z)
0.2

0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2

(Z)
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.1

0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1

1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...

-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2

0.1
0.1
0.3
0.1
-0.1

0*0
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.1

0.5
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1

0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.3
0.1

-0.1
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.0

0.1
0,0
0.2
0.1
0.0

0.0
0.1
0.5
-0.1
0.2

0.5
0.0
-0.1
0.1
0.1

0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3

0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.1

0.0
(Z)
0.2
0.1
0.1

0.2
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1

0.0
0.1
0.3
0*1
0*1

0.2
(Z)
(Z)
0.2
0.2

0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1

1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...

0.1
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.5

0.0
0.6
0.1
0.3
0.4

0.1
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.7

0.3
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.6

0.3
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.3

0.4
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.5

0.0
0.2
0.4
0.4
0.4

-0.1
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.5

0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.5

0.1
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.3

0.3
0.0
0.3
0.4
0.6

0.4
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.6

0.1
0.3
0.1
0.4
0.5

0.3
0*3
0.2
0.3
0.5

(Z)
0*3
0.3
0.4
0.5

0.3
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5

0.2
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.5

1970...
1971...
1972...

0.5

0.6

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.5

0.5

0.3

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.4

PERCENT CHANGES IN INDEX OF CONSUMER PRICES OVER 6-MONTH SPANS2
(COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATE* PERCENT)

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1949...

-3.2

-2.1

-0.9

6.2
-2.5

6.7
-1.8

7.5
-1.3

4.2
-2.2

1.3
-1.8

-1.0
-2.7

—3.3
-1.6

—4.2
-0.8

—3.7
-1.0

...
-2.1

6*8
-1.9

1*5
-2.2

-3.7
-1.1

-l.*8

1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...

0.0
12.0
2.3
-0.1
-0.6

0.6
11.5
1.3
0.2
0.6

2.4
7.8
0.5
0.6
0.5

4.7
4.2
1.7
1.1
-0.5

5.1
0.2
1.9
1.9
-0.9

6.0
1.1
2.0
1.9
-1.0

7.2
2.0
1.6
2.1
-1.1

7.2
2.5
1.5
1.2
-1.3

9.4
4.1
1.3
0.7
-1.4

11.3
4.2
-0.3
1.2
-0.9

14.0
4.4
-0.6
1.0
-0.4

13.1
2.8
0.0
0.3
0.0

1.0
10.4
1.4
0.2
0.2

5.3
1.8
1.9
1.6
-0.8

7.9
2.9
1.5
1.3
-1.3

12.8
3.8
-0.3
0.8
-0.4

6.8
4.7
1.1
1.0

-0.6

1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...

0.5
0.7
3.3
4.5
0.6

0.0
1.2
3.5
3.7
0.6

-0.2
2.1
3.5
3.2
1.1

0.0
3.5
3.8
1.8
0.9

-0.6
3.3
3.6
1.7
1.2

0.3
3.4
3.4
0.2
1.9

0.3
4.3
2.6
-0.2
2.4

0.7
3.6
3.0
0.0
2.2

1.0
3.6
2.5
0.3
1.9

0.5
2.8
3.2
0.8
1.6

1.1
3.6
2.9
0.4
1.7

0.3
3.8
4.0
0.4
1.1

0.1
1.3
3.4
3.8
0.8

-0.1
3.4
3.6
1.2
1.3

0.7
3.8
2.7
(Z)
2.2

0.6
3.4
3.4
0.5
1.5

0.3
3.0
3.3
1.4
1.4

I960..
1961..
1962..
1963..
1964..

1.4
0.5
1.7
0.7
1.4

1.5
0.3
1.7
0.7
1.2

1.4
0.1
1.2
1.5
0.9

1.3
0.7
1.3
1.7
0.6

1*3
0.6
1.1
1.7
0.8

1.4
1.0
1.6
1.4
0.9

1.3
1.1
1.0
1.7
1.1

1.5
1.0
1.0
1.9
1.4

1.5
1.2
1.2
1.8
1.5

1.9
0.7
1.4
1.6
1.6

1.7
1.1
1.3
1.1
1.6

1.5
1.3
0.6
1.4
1.5

1.4
0.3
1.5
1.0
1.2

1.3
0.8
1.3
1.6
0.8

1.4
1.1
1.1
1.8
1.3

1.7
1.0
1.1
1.4
1.6

1.5
0.8
1.3
1.4
1.2

1965...
1966...
1967...

1.7
4.1
1.3

1.8
3.9
2.0

2.3
3.5
2.1

2.1
3.6
2.7

1.8
3.5
3.3

2.0
3.5
3.4

1.7
3.6
3.7

1.7
3.3
3.7

1.6
3.2
3.9

5.8

5.7

6.2

6.1

6.4

5.9

5.3

5.8

6.0

3.4
2.1
4.0
4.9
6.4

3.5
1.9
4.4
5.7
6.2

1.9
3.8
1.8
4.5
5.9

2.0
3.5
3.1
4.4
6.1

1.7
3.4
3.8
5*0
5.7

2.9
2.4
4.2
5.1
6.3

2.1
3.3
3.2

1969...

1.8
3.1
4.2
4.8
6.2

4.7
6.0

1970...
1971...
1972...

6.7

6.5

6.0

5.5

4.9

5.2

5.0

4.7

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.1

6.4

5.2

4.9

4.6

5.3




(MARCH 1972)

111

G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
Arabic number indicates latest
calendar month of
data plotted ("7"=
July); Roman number indicates
latest quarter for
which data are
nlotted ("ill" third quarter).

HOW TO READ CYCLICAL (RECOVERY) COMPARISON CHARTS
These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of the most recent
business contraction (beginning with the cyclical peak in November 1969) and the
recovery and subsequent expansion (beginning with the business cycle trough in
November 1970).
To set the current cyclical movements into historical perspective,
cyclical paths over generally similar historical periods are shown.
The graphic
presentations of the data for the selected period are superimposed according to a.
special chart design.
The explanatory statements below provide a key to this cha:
design.
........

This scale shows
deviations (percent or unit differences) from
reference peak
levels. For units
^of measure see
comparison table
on the chart.

1. The objective of the chart is to compare
the pattern of the current recovery with
historical recovery patterns to facilitate
critical assessment of the amplitude, duration, and vigor of the indicators' current
movements.

2. The vertical line represents reference
trough dates.
The current recovery phase,
beginning with the business cycle trough in
November 1970, and the selected historical
recovery phases, beginning with the troughs
in October 1949, August 1954, April 1958,
and February 1961 are presented graphically
so that their trough dates are placed along
this vertical line.

This scale shows
actual series
units (See current
data table in
chart for the unit
of measure) and
applies only to
the current business cycle (heavy
solid line).

3. The horizontal line represents the leve f
of the data at the beginning point of the
most recent business contraction, November'
1969, the business cycle peak that preceded
the most recent trough.
It also represents
data levels at other business cycle peaks
(November 1948, July 1953, July 1957, and
May I960) that precede the troughs used for
this analysis.
The peak levels, which also
are called recovery levels—i.e., the levels
at which recoveries from the preceding contraction are achieved—are aligned along the
horizontal line for each business cycle
depicted.

4. To facilitate comparison, deviations from
the previous peak level are computed and
plotted for each cycle (consisting of the
contraction and portions of the subsequent
recovery and expansion).
These deviations
from the peak levels may 1-e either percent
changes or differences in original series units
depending upon the nature of the time series.
For most series percent changes are used.
For series containing negative values (such
as percent changes) and series measured in
percent units (such as interest rates) deviations are shown in terms of differences. The
same type of series could be, and in many
instances are, plotted as actual data in
original series units rather than deviations
from preceding peak levels.

This table shows
actual data for
the most recent
peak and trough,
and for the selected time periods thereafter.

Dec.'70
Jan.'71
Feb.'71
Mar.'71
Apr.'71
May '71
June'71
July'71

11/69 I 5/70

11/70

This scale meaSsures time in
months before and
after reference
trough dates. The
negative side indicates contractions, the positive side indicates recoveries
and expansions.

5/71 11/71

f
This comparison table shows deviations (percent or unit
differences) from the preceding reference peak levels or the
actual data for specified number of months or quarters after
reference trough dates. The median is determined as described
in statement 7.
Symbols if and Q mark levels of the 1949 and 1954 recoveries,
respectively, at selected time periods. (See statement 7.)

5. The influence of excessive
fluctuations in series with MCD of
is modified by using the average
months centered on the peak as the
peak level.

irregular
3 or more
for the 3
reference

6 0 For series that move counter to movements
in general business activity (e.g., the unemployment rate), an inverted scale is used;
i.e., declines in the data are shown as upward movements in the plotted lines, and increases in data as downward movements in
plotted lines.

7. For each chart, four curves and two sets
of points are shown.
One curve describes
the current recovery (heavy solid line:••*•») .
To facilitate historical comparison and avoid
overcrowding on the chart, the median pattern of the four post-World War II recoveries
(those beginning in 1949, 1954, 1958, and

112




Designations:
1'Coincident,"
'Leading," "Lagging," and "Unclassified" indicate the NBER
timing classification for the
series.

This time scale
shows calendar
months or quarters
corresponding to
the current contraction, recovery,
and expansion.

{?)= Current business cycle (reference) peak
(J)= Current business cycle (reference) trough

1961)
is shown as another curve (heavy broken line:———) . The curve representing the
historical median pattern passes through the
median points of the four individual recovery
paths. (Median is defined here as the average of the two middle points). The two most
recent individual recoveries (those beginning in 1958 and 1961 are also shown as plotted lines (solid line:——, and knotted line:
i i t t s, respectively).
The two sets of
points display the relative levels for the
remaining two recoveries (those beginning in
1949 (if) and 1954 (Q)) at four points in time
(trough date, 12 and 24 months after trough
date, and at the same time point as the latest
month plotted).

8. The business cycle peaks and troughs used
throughout the recovery comparison charts
are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research and are shown below.
The Roman numerals in parentheses indicate
the peak and trough quarters used for timing
quarterly data:
Peak
Nov. '48 (IVQ'48)
July '53 (IIQ '53)
July '57 (IIIQ'57)
May ' 60 (IIQ'60)
Nov. '69 (IVQ'69)

Trough
Oct.
Aug.
Apr.
Feb.
Nov.

'49
'54
'58
'61
'70

(IVQ'49)
(IIIQ'54)
(IIQ'58)
(!Q'6l)
(IVQ'70)

G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued

I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I M*i I

M M l{

Deviations
from
preced.
peak

+
'49* O
810. Composite index of
Q'54
12 leading indicators,
reverse trend adjusted
/-A—„.

Deviations
from
preced
peak

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

2050 GNP in 1958 dollars

Percent

-I +16

Actual
data
for
current
cycle

I Coincident

•135

+12
•130

+8
•125

+4
•120

0
•115

Current data
(Ann. rate,

-4

bil. dol.)

• 110

-8
June'71
July'71
Aug.'71
71
Oct.'71
Nov.'71
Dec.'71
Jan.'72
Feb.'72

4 quarters after
ref. trough

IQ'71

125.4
127.0
127.5
128.2
130.0
131.1
132.7
134.0
134.7

IIQ'71
IIIQ'71
IVQ'71

729.7
735.8
740.7

751.3

120
Percent

820. Composite index of
five coincident indicators * '49

47. Industrial production
• 115

+12

•135

+8

110

•130

+4
•125
•105

0
•120

-4

100

•115

Median

-8
•110

-12

O '54

15 months after * '49
ref. trough

June' 71
July'71
Aug.'71
Sep.'71
Oct.'71
Nov.'71
Dec.'71
Jan.'72
Feb.'72

-I -12

Current data
(Index: 1967=100)

15 months after
ref. trough

June' 71
July'71
Aug.'71
Sep.'71
Oct.'71
Nov.'71
Dec.'71
Jan.'72
Feb.'72

125.2
123.8
123.9
125.1
125.2
126.3
127.0
129.2
130.4

107.2
106.1
105.3
106.2
106.4
107.0
107.6
108.2
109.0

I I I I I I I I II

-4— Months from ref. _»»
troughs

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

Dates relative
to current
trough Nov. 70

11/69

5/70

11/70

5/71

11/71

5/72

11/72

-12

-6

0

-1-6

4-12

+18

+24

11/69

5/70

11/70

5/71

11/71

5/72

11/72 •




113

G. Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns-Continued

I I I II

43. Unemployment rate, total, percent,
inverted scale
n

(actual data plotted rather than
deviations from peak levels)

Deviations
from
preced.
peak

Actual
data

for
current
cycle

£.

•4

•5

•6

15 months after * '49
re£. trough

1949
1954
1958
1961
1970

June'71
July'71
Aug.'71
Sep.'71
Oct.'71
Nov.'71
Dec.'71
Jan.'72
Feb.'72

Median

5.8
5.9
6.1
6.0
5.8
6.0
6.0
5.9
5.7

1949
1954
1958
1961
1970
Median

O'54

June'71
July'71
Aug.'71
Sep.'71
Oct.'71
Nov.'71
Dec.'71
Jan.'72
Feb.'72

24.4
11.1
8.2
6.7
15.6
9.6

33,827
33,688
34,655
35,219
34,964
35,574
34,896
34,958
34,904

Percent

-1 4-40

190 Stock prices, 500 common stocks
/

781c0 Consumer price index, all items,
percent changes over 6-month spans

•130

(actual data plotted rather than
deviations from peak levels)

-1-30

+7

• +6

•120
+20

•110
+10
•100

• +3

0
90

• +2

-10

-20

16 months after
ref. troughs

• 0

• 70

June'71
July'71
Aug.'71
Sep.'71
Oct.'71
Nov.'71
Dec.'71
Jan.'72
Feb.'72
Mar.'72

-30

June'71
July'71
Aug.'71
Sep.'71
Oct.'71
Nov.'71
Dec.'71
Jan.'72
Feb.'72

I I

I I
m

11/69

5/70

""•March estimate (•••) includes weeks
ended March 1, 8, 15, and 22.

114




1

Months from ref.
troughs
Dates relative
to current
trough Nov. '70

-»» -12
11/69

-6
5/70

11/70

4.0
3.9
4.1
3.9
3.6
2.0
2.7
2.8
3.3

I I

+6

+12

+18

+24

5/71

11/71

5/72 11/72

INDEX
Series Finding Guide
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)

Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Tables

Charts

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
descriptions
(issue date)

A2. National and Personal Income
220 National income, current dollars
222 Personal income current dollars
224. Disposable personal income, current dollars —
225. Disposable personal income, constant dollars . . .
226. Per capita disposable personal income, current
dollars
227. Per capita disposable personal income, constant
dollars
A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230 Total current dollars
231 Total constant dollars
232. Durable goods, current dollars
233. Durable goods, except autos, current dollars . . .
234. Automobiles, current dollars
236. Nondurable goods, current dollars
237. Services, current dollars

5,68,75
5,68,75,93
5,68
5,68
5,68

Aug . ' 71 Oct.
Oct.
Jan. '72
Aug. '71 Oct.
Aug. '71 Oct.
Aug. '71 Oct.

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.

'69
'69
'69
'69

'71

Oct.

'69

'71

Oct. '69

10
10
10
10

5,68
5,68
5,68
5,68

Aug . ' 71
Aug. '71
Aug. '71
Aug. '71

10

5,68

Aug.

10

5,68

Aug.

5,69
5,69
5,69
5,69
5,69
5,69
5,69

Aug . ' 71
Jan. '72
Aug. '71
Aug. '71
Aug. '71
Aug . ' 71
Aug . ' 71

Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

12
12
12
12
12
12,28

5,69
5,69
5,69
5,69
5,69

Aug.

5,69,77

'71
Aug . ' 71
Aug. '71
Aug . ' 71
Aug. '71
Aug. '71

Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

A5. Foreign Trade
250. Net exports of goods and services
252. Exports of goods and services
253. Imports of goods and services

13,51
13,51
13,51

5,70
5,70
5,70

Aug.
Aug.
Aug.

'71
'71
'71

May '69
May '69
May '69

A6. Govt. Purchases, Goods and Services
260 Federal State and local governments
262 Federal Government
264 National defense
266. State and local governments

14
14
14,55
14

5,70
5,70

Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.

'71
'71
'71
'71

Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.

243
244
245

Producers' durable equipment
Residential structures
Change in business inventories

A7. Final Sales and Inventories
270. Final sales, durable goods
271. Change in business inventories, durable goods . .
274. Final sales, nondurable goods
275. Change in business inventories, nondurable
goods
A8. National Income Components
280. Compensation of employees
282. Proprietors' income
284. Rental income of persons
286. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adj. . .
288 Net interest
A9. Saving
290. Gross saving, private and government
292. Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory
valuation adjustment
296. Capital consumption allowances
298. -Government surplus or deficit

A10. Real (1958) Gross National Product
205. GNP constant dollars
273. Final sales, constant dollars
246. Change in bus. inventories, constant dollars —
231. Personal consumption expend., constant dol. . .
247. Fixed invest., nonresidential, constant dollars . .
248. Fixed invest., residential structures, constant
dollars
249. Gross auto product, constant dollars
261 . Govt. purchases of goods and services, constant
dollars

5,70,88
5,70

'69
'69
'69
'69

15
15
15

5,70
5,70
5,70

Aug.
Aug.
Aug.

'71
'71
'71

Oct. '69
Oct. '69
Oct. '69

15

5,70

Aug.

'71

Oct. '69

16
16
16
16
16

5,70
5,70
5,70
5,71
5,71

Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.
Aug.

'71
'71
'71
'71
'71

Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

17
17

5,71
5,71

Aug.
Aug.

'71
'71

Oct.
Oct.

'69
'69

17
17
17

5,71
5,71
5,71

Aug. '71
Aug. '71
Aug. '71

Oct.
Oct.
Oct.

'69
'69
'69

9,18,23,41,60
18
18
11,18
18

5,68,75,93
5,71
5,71
5,69
5,71

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

18
18

5,71
5,71

Jan. '72
Jan. '72

18

5,71

Jan.

'72
'72
'72
'72
'72

Oct. '69

Oct.

'69

19
19
19

72
72
72

Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

'72
'72
'72

Oct.
Oct.
Oct.

'69
'69
'69

19
19

72
72

Jan.
Jan.

'72
'72

Oct.
Oct.

'69
'69

20,39
20
20
20,39
20
21
21

6,73
6,73
6,73
6,73
6,73
6,73
6,73

Oct.
Dec.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Dec.
Dec.

'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'70

21
21,41
21
22,41
22
22
22,42

6,74
6,74
6,74
6,74
6,74
6,74
6,74

Nov.
Oct.
Apr.
Apr.
Oct.
Apr.
Apr.

'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71

B2. Production, Income, Consumption, Trade
*200. GNP in current dollars
*205 GNP in 1958 dollars
*47 Industrial production
*52. Personal income
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., construction . . .
*56. Manufacturing and trade sales
57 Final sales
*54. Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores, constant dollars

9,23,41
9,18,23,41,60
23,41,66
23,41
23
24, 41
24
24,41
24

6,68,75
6,68,75,93
6,75,101

Aug.
Jan.
Oct.
Aug.
Aug.
Dec.

B3. Fixed Capital Investment
*12 Index of net business formation
13 New business incorporations
*6 New orders durable goods industries
8 Construction contracts, total value
*10. Contracts and orders, plant, equipment

25,39
25
25,39
25
25,39

6,76
6,76
6,76
6,76
6,76

280A
282A
284A.
286A.

Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corporate profits and inventory valuation
adjustment
288A. Net interest of persons

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B1. Employment and Unemployment
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
*21. Avg. wkly. overtime hrs., prod, workers, mfg. ..
2 Accession rate manufacturing
*5. Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
50. Number of job vacancies, manufacturing
46. Help-wanted advertising
48.
*41
42.
*43.
45.
40.
*44.

Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments . . .
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities . . .
Unemployment rate, total
Average weekly insured unemploy. rate
Unemployment rate, married males
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over

72
72
72
72
72
72

19

72

^Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.




Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.
Jan.

'72
'72
'72
'72
'72
'72

Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

Jan.

'72

Oct.

'69

Aug.'68#
Aug. '68
June '69

'69
'69
'68
July '68
July '68
Feb. '69
July '68

Oct.
Oct.
Nov.

June ' 71
'71
'71 Sep. '68

Apr.
Sep.

Sep.

'71

Sep.

'68

26
26
26
26
26,39

6,76
6,76
6,76
6,77
6,77

'71
'71 Sep. '68
July '71
June '71
Apr. '71 Apr. '69

96.
97.
*61.
69.

Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Backlog of capital approp., manufacturing
Business expend., new plant and equipment
Machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures

27
27
27,42,43

6,77
6,77

7,77,83

'71 Sep. '68
'71
July '71 Nov. '68

27

7,77

Sep.

12,28
28,40
28
28
28
29
29
29,42
29

7,69,77

Aug.
Dec.

30,40
30,40
30,40
30

7,78
7,78
7,78
7,78

Nov.
Jan.
Jan.

30
30
30,40

7,79
7,79
7,79

Aug.
Nov.
Oct.

31
31
31,57
31,57

7,79
7,79

7,79,90
7,79,90

Jan.
Jan.
Oct.

32
32
32,42

7,79
7,79
7,79

...

B4. 1 nventories and 1 nventory 1 nvestment
245. Change in bus. inventories, all industries
*31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories
37. Purchased materials, higher inventories
20. Change in materials, supplies inventories
26. Buying policy, production materials
32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods
*71. Book value, mfg. and trade inventories
65. Book value, mf rs.' inven., finished goods
B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
*23. Industrial materials prices
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks

1 5. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg

19
19
19
19
19
19

'68
June '69
Aug. '68

New capital appropriations, manufacturing
New orders, producers' capital goods indus
Construction contracts, commercial and indus. .
Private housing starts total
New building permits private housing

Percent of GNP
Personal consumption expenditures
Fixed investment, nonresidential
Fixed investment, residential structures
Change in business inventories
Net exports of goods and services
Federal Govt. purchases of goods and services . .
State and local govts.' purchases of goods and
services

6,75
6,75
6,75
6,75
6,75
6,75

'71
'72
'71
'71
'71
'71
Aug . ' 71
Dec. '71
Jan. '72

Aug. '68
Aug.

11.
24.
9.
28
*29

18. Corporate profits after taxes, constant dollars . .
22. Ratio, profits to income originating.

'72

All. Shares of GNP and National Income

230A.
241 A.
244A.
245A.
250A.
262A.
266A.

Series
descriptions
(issue date)

Percent of National Income

9,23,41
9,18, 23, 41,60
9
9
9

11
11,18
11
11
11
11
11

A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240. Gross private domestic investment, total
241. Nonresidential fixed investment

Tables

Charts

Historical
data
(issue date)

A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT-Con.

A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1. Gross National Product
200. GNP in current dollars
205 GNP iq 1958 dollars
210 Irnplicit price deflator
215 Per capita GNP in current dollars
217 Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

34.
35.
55.
58.
68.

Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Net cash flow, corporate, constant dollars
Wholesale prices, indus. commodities
Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
63. Unit labor cost, total private econ. .
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. .

7,77
7,77
7,78
7,78
7,78
7,78
7,78
7,78

Sep.
Sep.

Sep.
Sep.

'71

Sep.'68#

'71
'71
June '71
Sep. '71
June ' 71
June ' 71
Sep. '71
Dec. '71
Sep. '71

July '71
'71
'72
'72

Apr. '69
May '69
July '68
Jan. '72

'71
'71
'71

Oct.
Feb.

'69
'69

Sep.

'68

Sep.
Feb.
Sep.

'68
'69
'68

July '68
'69
'68

Mar.
Nov.

'72 Jan.
'72 Jan.
'71 Mar.
July '71 June

Aug.
Feb.
Oct.

'71
'72
'71

'72
'72
»72
'69

July '68
Nov.

'63

#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.

115

Series Finding Guide-Continued
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)

Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Tables

Charts

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
descriptions
(issue date)

112 Change in business loans

39 Delinquency rate, installment loans

33

7,80

Dec.

'71

33

7,80

Dec.

'71

33
33
33,40

7,80

Dec.

33
34
34
34

7,80

35
35
35
35

7,81

93
1 14
116.
115.

Free reserves
Treasury bill rate
Corporate bond yields
Treasury bond yields

1 17.
66.
*72.
*67.
1 18.

35
Municipal bond yields
Consumer installment debt
36
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding . . . 36,42
Bank rates on short-term bus. loans
36,42
36
Mortgage yields, residential

67. Composite Indexes
810 12 leading indicators reverse trend adj
81 1. 12 leading indicators, prior to reverse
trend adjustment
820 5 coincident indicators
830
813
814
815
816.
817.

6 lagging indicators
Marginal employment adjustments
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Profitability
Sensitive financial flows

7,80
7,80

7,80
7,80
7,80

7,81
7,81
7,81

7,81
8,81
8,81
8,81
8,81

'71
June '71
June '71

June '71
'71
June '71
Apr. '71

Nov.

June
June
June
June

'71
'71
'71
'71

June '71
June '71
June '71
Nov. '71
July '71

July '64
July '64
July '64

July '64
July '64
July '64
July '64

July '64

37

6,82

Feb.

'71

Aug.

'70

38
37
37
37
38
38
38
38
38

82

Feb.

'71
'72
'72
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
»71

Aug.
Nov.

'70
'68

Nov.

'68

6,82

Jan.

6,82

Jan.

6,82

Dec.

6,82

June

6,82

Feb.

6,82

Feb.

6,82

Feb.

6,82

June

420 Household income compared to year ago
430. New cars purchased by households
435. Index of consumer sentiment

C2. Diffusion Indexes
D61 Bus expend , new plant and equip
0440 New orders manufacturing
D442 Net profits manufacturing and trade
D444 Net sales manufacturing and trade
D446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade
D450.
D460.
D462.
D464.
D466.

Level of inventories, mfg. and trade
Selling prices, mfg. and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Selling prices, retail trade

D2. Balance of Payments and Components-Con.
530. Liquid liabilities to foreigners
532. Liquid and nonliquid liabilities to foreign
official agencies
534. U.S. official reserve assets
535. Allocations of SDR's
252. Exports of goods and services
253. Imports of goods and services
536. Merchandise exports, adjusted
537. Merchandise imports, adjusted
540. Investment income, military sales, and
services, exports
541. Foreigners' investment income, military
expend, and other services, imports
542. Income on U.S. investments abroad

545. Payments by U.S. travelers abroad

Tables

Series
descriptions
(issue date)

42,43
44
44
44
44

77,83
83
83
83
83

July '71
Sep. '71
Sep. '71
Jan. '71
Jan. '71

45
45
45
45

83
83
83
83

Jan.

Nov.

Jan.

Nov.

'71
'71
July '71
Jan. '71

'68
'68
Nov. '68
Nov. '68
Nov. '68

50

86

Aug.

50
50

Aug.

13,51
13,51

86
86
86
86
86

51
51

86
86

Aug.

51

86

Aug.

'70

May '69

51
52
52

86
87
87

Aug.

'70
'70
'70

May «69
May '69
May '69

'70

May '69

'70
Aug. '70

May '69
May '69

'70
'70

May '69
May '69

'70
'70

May '69
May '69

Aug.
Aug.

Aug.

Sep.

Sep

U.S. military expenditures abroad
Military sales to foreigners
Receipts, transportation and services
Payments, transportation and services

52
52
52
52
52
52

87
87
87
87
87
87

Sep.

547.
546.
548.
549.
561.
560.
565.
564.
570
575.

US direct in vestments abroad
Foreign direct investments in U.S
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
Govt grants and capital transactions
Banking and other capital transactions

53
53
53
53
53
53

87
87
87
87
87
87

Sep.

D3. Federal Government Activities
600. Fed. balance, nat'l income and prod, acct
601. Fed. receipts, nat'l income and prod, acct
602. Fed. expend., nat'l income and prod, acct

Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products industries
New orders defense products
Military contract awards in U S

54
54
54
13,55
55
55
55
55
55

D4. Price Movements
211. Fixed weighted price index, gross private
product
781 Consumer price index all items
....
784. Consumer price index, services
783 Consumer price index commodities
782 Consumer price index food
750 Wholesale price index all commodities
55 Whlse price index indus comm
58 Wholesale price index mfd goods
751 Wholesale price index proc foods feeds
752 Wholesale price index farm products

621.
647.
648
625

C. ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
01. Aggregate Series
61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip
410. Manufacturers' sales, total
412. Mfrs.' inventories, book value
414. Condition of mfrs.' inventories
416. Adequacy of manufacturers' capacity

Charts

Historical
data
(issue date)

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS-Con.

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B6. Money and Credit
85. Change in money supply (M1)
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits
at comm banks (M2)
103. Change in money supply plus time dep. at
banks and nonbank inst. (M3)
33 Change in mortgage debt
*1 13. Change in consumer installment debt

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

'70
'70
'70
Sep. '70
Sep. '70
Sep. '70

May
May
May
May
May
May

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

'70
'70
'70
'70
'70
'70

May
May
May
May
May
May

'69
'69
'69
'69
'69
'69

'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71

July'68#
July' 68 #
July' 68 #
Oct. '69

Sep.

Sep.

Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Oct.
Oct.

8,88

Aug.

8,88

Aug.

8,88

Aug.

8,70,88

Aug.

8,88

Nov.

8,88

Nov.

8,88

Sep.

8,88

Nov.

8,88

Apr.

56
56,65
56
56
56
57
57
31,57
57
57

8,89

Feb.

8,89,101
89
89
89
89
8,79,90
7,79,90
90
90

June
June
June
June
June

58,59
58,59

Sep.'68#

Nov.
Nov.

'68
'68
'68
Nov. '68

Nov.

46
46
46
46
46

84
84
84
84
84

July
July
July
July
July

'71
'71
'71
'71
'71

Nov.

47
47
47
47
47

84
84
84
84
84

July
July
July
July
July

'71
'71
'71
'71
'71

Nov.

'68
'68
'68
Nov. '68
Nov. '68

July
June
June

'72
'71 Mar. »72
'71 May '69
'71 May '69
'71 May '69
'71 June '69
'72
'71 June '69
'71 June * 69
'71 June ' 69

8,91

Feb.

'72

8,91

Feb.

'72

58

8,91

Feb.

'72

58,59

8,92

Feb.

'72

58,59
770. Output per man-hour, total private economy . . . 58,59
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm . . . 58

8,92
8,92

Feb.

8,92

Feb.

'72
'72
'72

Feb.

Nov.

Nov.

'68
Nov. '68
Nov. '68
Nov. '68
Nov. '68

D5. Wages and Productivity
740. Avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers in private
nonfarm economy
.
741. Real avg. hourly earnings, prod, workers in
859. Real spendable avg. weekly earnings, nonagri.
745. Avg. hourly compensation in private nonfarm
746. Real avg. hourly compensation in private

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D1. Foreign Trade
502. Exports, excluding military aid
506. Export orders, durable goods, except
motor vehicles
508. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
512 General imports

D2. Balance of Payments and Components
250 Balance on goods and services
515. Balance on goods, services, and remittances
517. Balance on current account
519. Balance on current account and long term
capital
521. Net liquidity balance
522. Official reserve transactions balance

48
48
48
48
48

40
49
49
49
49
49

8,85

Oct.

8,85

Oct.

8,85
8,85
8,85

8,86
8,86
8,86
8,86
8,86
8,86

"Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.




116

'71
'71

July '71
July '71
'71

Oct.

May '69
May '69

Aug.'68#
May '69

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries748. First year avg. (mean) changes
749. Avg. (mean) changes over life of contract

Feb.

59

92

Feb.

'72

59

92

Feb.

'72

Aug.

'71

Oct.

'71
'71
'71
'71

'69
'68
Nov. '68

E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E1. Actual and Potential GNP
205 Actual GNP in 1958 dollars
206 Potential GNP in 1958 dollars
207 GNP oap (potential less actual)
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durables . . .
853. Ratio, prod, of bus. equip, to consumer goods . .
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal
income

#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.

9,18,23,41,60 6,68,75,93
60
93
60
5,93

61
61
61
61

8,94

Jan.

8,94

Dec.

8,94

Oct.

8,94

Oct.

61

8.94

Aus-.

'71

'69

Feb.
Sep.

Jul v

' RS

Series Finding Guide—Continued
(See table of contents (page i) for chart and table titles)
Current issue
(page numbers)

Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Charts

Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

860: Ratio, help-wanted advertising to persons
unemployed
61
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm . . . 58
859. Real spendable average weekly earnings,
nonagri. production or nonsupv. workers —
58
857 Vacancy rate total rental housing
61

041.
047.
058
054

Employees on nonagri. payrolls
Industrial production
Wholesale prices manufactured goods
Sales of retail stores

E5. Rates of Change
200 GNP in current dollars
205 GNP in constant dollars
....
820. Composite index of 5 coincident indicators
48 Man-hours in nonagri establishments
47. Index of industrial production

Charts

Tables

Historical
data
(issue date)

Series
descriptions
(issue date)

May '69

F. INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES-Con.
E2. Analytical Ratios— Con.

E3. Diffusion Indexes
Dl. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
D6. New orders, durable goods industries
D11. New capital appropriations, mfg
034. Profits, manufacturing
019. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
023. Industrial materials prices
05. Initial claims. State unemploy. insurance

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series titles (shown in chart/table sequence)
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Series
descriptions
(issue date)

8,94
Nov.

'71

June '68

8,91

Oct.
Nov.

'71
'71

June ' 68

8,94

8,92

62
62
62
62
62
62
62

95,97
95,97
95
95
95
95,98
96

63
63
63
63

96,98
96,99
96,100
96,100

64
64
64
64
64

Oct.
Nov.
Sep.
Apr.
Nov.
Jan.
Nov.
Oct.
Nov.
Jan.
Jan.

Aug.
Jan.
Dec.
Nov.
Nov.

'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71

'71
'72
'71
'71
'70

F1. Consumer Price Indexes
781 United States
133 Canada
132 United Kingdom
135 West Germany
136 France
138 Japan
137 Italy
F2. Industrial Production Indexes
47. United States
123. Canada

May '69
Apr.
'69
June '69

126.
125.
128
121.

France
West Germany
Japan
OECD European countries

197

Italw

56,65
65
65
65
65
65
65

8,89,101
101
101
101
101
101
101

June '71

23,41,66
66
66
66
66
66
66
66

6,75,101
101
101
101
102
102
102
102

Oct.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.
Sep.

'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71

67
67
67
67
67
67
67

102
102
102
102
102
102
102

Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.

'71 May '69
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71
'71

Apr. '71
Apr. '71
Apr. '71
Apr. '71
Apr. '71
Apr. '71

Nov.

'68

June ' 69

Oct.
Oct.
Nov.

'69
'69
'68

Aug. '68#
Nov.

'68

F3. Stock Price Indexes
19 United States
143 Canada
142 United Kingdom
146 France
145 West Germany
148 Japan
.
147. Italy

#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown.




117

Titles and Sources of Series
Within each of the six sections, series are listed in
numerical order. The numbers assigned to the series are
for identification purposes only and do not reflect series
relationships or order. "M" indicates monthly series; "Q"
indicates quarterly series. Data apply to the whole period
except for series designated by "EOM" (end of the
month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The alphabetic-numeric designations following the series
titles indicate all charts and tables in which the series
may be found. See the table of contents for chart and
table titles and Series Finding Guide for page numbers.
The series in section B preceded by an asterisk (*) are
included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators,
chart B8. Unless otherwise indicated, all series which
require seasonal adjustment have been adjusted by their
source.
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index.
Diffusion indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear
the same number and are obtained from the same
sources.

253.

Imports of goods and services (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5, D2)

260.

Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6)

261.

Government purchases of goods and services total,
1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

262.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A6)

233.

Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods
except automobiles, in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A3)

234.

Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

236.

Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable
goods, in current dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

237.

Personal consumption expenditures, services, in
current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

240.

Gross private domestic investment, total (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A4)

241.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)

264.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6, D3)
State and local government purchases of goods
and services, total (Q).—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6)

A National Income and Product

262A. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

200.

Gross national product in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, B2, 88, E5)

241 A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

266.

205.

Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, B2, B8, El, E5)

242.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)

210.

Implicit price deflator, gross national product
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A1)

266A. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

243.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable equipment (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)

270.

Final sales, durable goods (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

Per capita gross national product in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)

244.

271.

Change in business inventories, durable goods
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

273.

Final sales (series 205 minus series 246), 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A10)

215.

217.

220.

222.

224.

Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)
National income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)

244A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all
industries (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4, B4)

274.

Final sales, nondurable goods, (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

275.

245A. Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

Change in business inventories, nondurable goods
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

280.

Compensation of employees (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)

245.

Personal income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)
Disposable personal income in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)

Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)

246.

Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

225.

Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)

226.

Per capita disposable personal income in current
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)

247.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

227.

Per capita disposable personal income in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)

248.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

230.

Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

249.

Gross auto product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

230A. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

250.

231.

Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A3,A10)

250A. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

232.

Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

252.

280A. Compensation of employees as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
282.

118




Rental income of persons (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)

284A. Rental income of persons as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

286.

Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5, D2)

of Com(A8)

282A. Proprietors' income as a percent of gross national
product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A11)
284.

Balance on goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5, D2)

Proprietors' income (Q).-Department
merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A8)

286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment as a percent of gross national product
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

Titles and Sources of Series

15.

Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).-Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of
Economic
Analysis
(B5)

39.

Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over (EOM).-American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc. (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(B6)

*16.

Corporate profits after taxes (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (B5, B8)

40.

*17.

Index of price per unit of labor cost-ratio, index
of wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and
supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of
output (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)

Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B1)

*41.

Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment survey (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1, B8, E3, E4)

42.

Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor force survey (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1)

*43.

Unemployment rate, total (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(81, B8)

*44.

Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
(M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1, 88)

(Continued)
288.

Net interest (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)

288A. Net interest as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
290.

Gross saving-private saving plus government surplus or deficit (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

292.

Personal saving (Q).-Department of
Bureau of Economic Analysis

294.

Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

18.

Corporate profits after taxes, 1958 dollars (CDDepartment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(85)

296.

Capital consumption allowances, corporate and
noncorporate (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

19.

Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).Standard and Poor's Corporation
(B5, B8, E3, F3)

20.

298.

Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories
of materials and supplies (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)

21.

Average weekly overtime hours of production
workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(81)

45.

Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating,
corporate, all industries (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)

Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).-Department of Labor, Manpower
Administration
(B1)

46.

Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).-The Conference Board
(B1)

Index of industrial materials prices (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(85, B8, E3, E4)

*47.

Index of industrial production (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, E3, E4, E5, F2)

Value of manufacturers' new orders, producers'
capital goods industries (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)

48.

Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1,E5)

Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)

50.

Number of job vacancies in manufacturing (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (B1)

*52.

Personal income (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2, 88)

53.

Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing,
and construction (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(82)

*54.

Sales of retail stores (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(82, 88, E3, E4)

Commerce,
(A9)

B Cyclical Indicators
*1.

Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
(B1, B8, E3, E4)

2.

Accession rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)

3.

Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)

*5.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).-Department of
Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B1, E3)

22.

*23.

24.

25.

26.
*6.

8.

9.

*10.

11.

*12.

13.

14.

Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)
Index of construction contracts, total value
(M).-McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company.
(Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(B3)
Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (B3)
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis May 1970 and by source agency
thereafter.
(B3, B8)

28.

New private housing units started, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)

*29.

Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8)

55.
*31.

Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the
Census
(B4, B8)

Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, E5)

*56.

32.

Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting
slower deliveries (M).-Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(B4)

Manufacturing and trade sales (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of the Census
(B2, B8)

57.

33.

Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).Institute of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; Department of Housing and Urban
Development, Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)

Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2)

58.

Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, D4, E3, E4)

59.

Sales of retail stores, 1967 dollars (M).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2)

*61.

Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, and the Securities and Exchange
Commission
(83, 88, C1, C2)

*62.

Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages and
salaries and supplements to wages and salaries) to
index of industrial production, manufacturing
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)

Newly approved capital appropriations,
1,000
manufacturing corporations (Q).—The Conference
Board
(B3, E3)
Index of net business formation (M).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc., and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(B3, B8)
Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)
Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.
(B6)




Buying policy-production materials, percent of companies reporting commitments 60 days or longer
(M).-National Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)

34.

Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(85)

35.

Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)

37.

Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of
purchased materials (M).-National Association of
Purchasing Management; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B4)

119

Titles and Sources of Series

118.

Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages
(M).-Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(B6)

*200.

Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in
section A.

(Continued)
63.

Index of unit labor cost, total private economy
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5)

65.

Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)

66.

Consumer installment debt (EOM).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally
adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted
figure for previous month to obtain current figure
(B6)

*67.

Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities
(Q).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6, B8)

68.

Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product
(1958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations-ratio of
current-dollar compensation of employees to gross
corporate product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)

69.

*205.

Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in
section A.

245.

Change in business inventories (GNP component)
(Q). See in section A.

810.

Twelve leading indicators-reverse trend adjusted
composite index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16,
17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

811.

Twelve leading indicators-composite index prior to
reverse trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10,
12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Marginal employment adjustments-leading composite index (includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)

Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and
commercial construction put in place)
(M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)

814.

Capital investment commitments-leading composite
index (includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)

*71.

Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value
(EOM).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)

815.

Inventory investment and purchasing-leading composite index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37)
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

*72.

Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks (EOM).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (B6, B8)

816.

Profitability-leading composite index (includes series
16, 17, and 19) (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

817.

Sensitive financial flows-leading composite index
(includes series 33, 85, 112, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

85.

Change in U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus
currency) [M1] (M).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)

93.

Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)

820.

Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7, E5)

Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)

825.

Five coincident indicators-deflated composite index
(includes series 41, 43, 47, 52D and 56D) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)

(B7)

97.

Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
(EOQ).-The Conference Board
(B3)

102.

Change in U.S. money supply plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's [M2]
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)

830.

103.

Change in U.S. money supply, plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's, plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions [M3] (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)
Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers
in credit markets (Q).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)

112.

Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)

*113.

Net change in consumer installment debt (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6, B8)

114.

Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)

61.

412.

414.

115.

Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-Treasury
Department
(B6)

116.

Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).-First National City Bank of New York and
Treasury Department
(B6)

117.

120

Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(B6)




Six lagging indicators-composite index (includes
series 44, 61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

C Anticipations and Intentions

410.
110.

Mean probability (average chances in 100) of substantial changes (increase, decrease, and increase less
decrease) in income of households (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(CD

430.

Number of new cars purchased by households
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD

435.

Index of consumer sentiment (Q).-University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(CD

D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)

D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)

(B7)

813.

96.

425.

416.

420.

D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
0446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
D464. Sellinq prices, wholesale trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)

D Other Key Indicators
55.

Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M). See in section B.

58.

Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M).
See in section B.

Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(C1)

211.

Fixed weighted price index, gross private product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D4)

Manufacturers' inventories, total
book value
(EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis
(C1)

250.

Balance on goods and services; U.S. balance of
payments (Q). See in section A.

252.

Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q).
See in section A.

253.

Imports of goods and services: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). See in section A.

264.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services,
national defense (Q). See in section A.

500.

Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series
512) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D1)

502.

Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D1)

Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries (Q). See in section B.

Percent of total book value of inventories held by
manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less
percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(CD
Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective operations over the next 12
months, less percent classifying existing capacity as
excessive (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(CD
Current income of households compared to income a
year ago (percent higher, lower, and unchanged)
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD

546.

Military sales to foreigners: U.S. balance of payments
(Q). -Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

748.

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-first year average (mean) changes (Q).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(05)

547.

749.

Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods
except motor vehicles and parts (M).—Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D1)

U.S. military expenditures abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-average (mean) changes over life of contract
(Q).—Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

548.

750.

Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery
(M).-McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D1)

Receipts for transportation and other services: U.S.
balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D4)

549.

Payments for transportation and other services: U.S.
balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

751.

Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)

512.

General imports, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D1)

560.

752.

Index of wholesale prices, farm products (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(04)

515.

Balance on goods, services and remittances; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

Foreign direct investments in the U.S.: U.S. balance
of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(D2)

770.
561.

Index of output per man-hour, total private economy
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(06)

Balance on current account; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

U.S. direct investments abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
781.

564.

Foreign purchases of U.S. securities: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

Index of consumer prices (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4, E5, F1)

782.

Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)

U.S. purchases of foreign securities: U.S. balance of
payments (Q). -Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

783.

Index of consumer prices, commodities less food
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D4)

Government grants and capital transactions, net: U.S.
balance of payments (Q). -Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(02)

784.

Index of consumer prices, services (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)

Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued)
506.

508.

517.

519.

521.

522.

530.

532.

534.

535.

536.

537.

540.

541.

542.

Balance on current account and long term capital;
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

565.

Net liquidity balance; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

570.

Official reserve transactions balance; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

575.

858.

Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all
foreigners, total outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

Banking and other capital transactions, net: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).— Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D5)

600.

Federal Government surplus or deficit, national
income and product accounts (Q). -Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

859.

601.

Federal Government receipts, national income and
product accounts (Q). -Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents)
on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1957-59 dollars
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D5)

602.

Federal expenditures, national income and product
accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D3)

616.

Defense Department obligations incurred, total,
excluding military assistance (M).-Department of
Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding
military grants) to foreign official agencies, total
outstanding: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding
military grants: U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
Allocations to the U.S. of Special Drawing Rights:
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

Income on U.S. investments abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

Index of industrial production (M). See in section B.

Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M). -Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis
Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D3)

48.

Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). See
in section B.

52.

Personal income (M). See in section B.

625.

Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms
and institutions (M). -Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(03)

54.

Sales of retail stores (M). See in section B.

Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military:
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures
and other services imports: U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

47.

621.

Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
grants: U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

U.S. investment income, military sales, and other
services exports, excluding military grants: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

E Analytical Measures

647.

New orders, defense products industries (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (03)

648.

New orders, defense products (M). -Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)

740.

Index of average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M). -Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

741.

Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M). -Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

200.

GNP in current dollars (Q). See in section A.

205.

Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in
section A.

206.

Potential level of gross national product in 1958
dollars (Q).-Council of Economic Advisers
(E1)

207.

Gap-the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual
GNP
(series 205)
(Q).-Council of Economic
Advisers
(E1)

820.

Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B.

850.

Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and McGraw-Hill Economics
Department
(E2)

543.

Income on foreign investments in the U.S.: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

544.

Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.: U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

745.

Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

851.

Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56),
manufacturing and trade total (EOM).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(E2)

545.

Payments by U.S. travelers abroad: U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

746.

Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

852.

Ratio, unfilled orders (series 96) to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods (EOM).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)




UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
DIVISION OF PUBLIC

DOCUMENTS

WASHINGTON, D.C. 2O4O2

POSTAGE AND FEES PAID
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

OFFICIAL BUSINESS

FIRST CLASS MAIL

Titles and Sources of Series
(Continued)
853.

Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods (M).-Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial
production.)
(E2)

854.

Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income
(series 292 divided by series 224) (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (E2)

857.

Vacancy rate in rental housing-unoccupied rental
housing units as a percent of total rental housing
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)

860.

Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to total number of persons unemployed
(M).-The Conference Board, and Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)

The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index.
Diffusion indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the
same number and are obtained from the same sources. See
section B for titles and sources of D1, D5, D6, D11, D19,
D23, D41, D47, D54, D58, D61, and section C for D440,
D442, D444, D446, D450, D460, D462, D464, D466, and
D480. Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34.

Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National
City Bank of New York; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)




F International Comparisons

133.

Canada, index of consumer prices (M).-Dominion
Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F1)

19.

United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M). See in section B.

135.

West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(F1)

47.

United States, index of industrial production (M).
See in section B.

136.

France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(F1)

121.

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial
production (M).-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(F2)

137.

Italy, index of consumer prices (M).-Institute Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(F1)

138.

Japan, index of consumer prices (M).-Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo)
(F1)

142.

United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-The
Financial Times (London)
(F3)

143.

Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Dominion Bureau
(F3)
of Statistics (Ottawa)

145.

West Germany, index of stock
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)

146.

France, index of stock prices (M).-lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(F3)

147.

Italy, index of stock prices (M).-lnstituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome)
(F3)

122.

United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M).-Central Statistical Office (London)
(F2)

123.

Canada, index of industrial production (M).Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F2)

125.

West Germany, index of industrial production
(M).-Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal
adjustment by OECD
(F2)
i
France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(F2)

126.

prices (M).(F3)

127.

Italy, index of industrial production (M).-Institute
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(F2)

128.

Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo) (F2)

148.

Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock
Exchange (Tokyo)
(F3)

132.

United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).Ministry of Labour (London)
(F1)

781.

United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in
section D.