Full text of Business Conditions Digest : March 1968
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DEVELOPMENTS
March 1968
DATA THROUGH FEBRUARY
3. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
This report was prepared in the Economic
Research and Analysis Division under the
direction of Julius Shiskin, Chief. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Feliks Tamm—Technical supervision and
review,
Barry A. Beckman—Specifications for
computer processing,
Gerald F. Donahoe—New projects,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal
adjustment methods,
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data.
Editorial supervision is provided by Geraldine
Censky of the Administrative and Publications
Services Division.
The cooperation of various government and
private agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged, The agencies furnishing
data are indicated in the list of series and
sources on the back cover of this report.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
C. R. Smith, Secretary
BUREAU OF THE CENSUS
A. Ross Eckler, Director
Robert F. Drury, Deputy Director
JULIUS SHISKIN, Chief Economic Statistician
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Department of Commerce Field Office.
ABOUT THE COVER-Series in this publication
are grouped according to their usual timing
and shown against the background of contractions and expansions in general business
activity, The center panel illustrates this
concept. The vertical bar represents a contraction; the top curve, the Leading Series which
usually fall before a contraction has begun and
rise before it has ended; the middle curve, the
Coincident Series which usually fall with the
contraction period; the bottom curve, the
Lagging Series which fall after a contraction
has begun and rise after it ends. Series are also
classified by economic process within each
timing group. Processes are indicated in the
squares bordering the panel.
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE
DEVELOPMENTS
PREFACE This report brings together many of the available economic
indicators in convenient form for analysis and interpretation. The presentation
and classification of series follow the business indicators approach. The list
of indicators and their classification into "leading/' "roughly coincident/'
and "lagging" groups are those designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a private, nonprofit research organization which
has been preparing lists of business cycle indicators for more than 40 years.
The business cycle turning dates are also those designated by NBER. In
addition, all series within each timing group are classified under eight
economic processes (e.g., employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; etc.). Some special
series included in the list (such as labor costs in manufacturing and the total
of machinery and equipment sales and business construction) have been
constructed by the NBER for purposes of business cycle analysis.
The utilization of the National Bureau list of indicators and their
cyclical turning dates is not to be taken as implying acceptance or endorsement by the Bureau of the Census or any other government agency of any
approach to business cycle analysis, nor of the special series compiled
by the National Bureau to facilitate cyclical studies. This report is intended
only to supplement other Department of Commerce reports that provide
information so arranged as to facilitate the analysis of current business
conditions.
The unique features of BCD are the arrangement of data according
to their usual timing relations during the course of the business cycle, the
cross-classification by timing and economic process, and the inclusion of
special analytical measures and historical cyclical comparisons that help in
evaluating the current state of the business cycle. In addition, the movements of the series are shown against the background of the expansions and
contractions of the general business cycle so that "leads" and "lags" can be
readily detected and unusual cyclical developments spotted.
About 115 principal series and over 300 components are used in preparing BCD. (This figure includes 19 foreign series in addition to 96 U.S.
series.) Almost all of the basic data have been published by the source agency.
A complete list of series titles and the sources of data is shown on the back
cover of this report.
March 1968
DATA THROUGH FEBRUARY
DEVELOPMENTS
CONTENTS
Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical
Timing
Background Materials
New Features and Changes for This Issue
3 Census Projects on Economic Fluctuations
iii
iv
v
vi
Descriptions and Procedures
Introduction
Timing Classification
Economic Process Classification
"Short List" of Indicators
Method of Presentation . . . „
Concepts and Procedures
References
How to Read Charts
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
4
Section One—Basic Data
Table
Chart
Chart
Table
Table
1. Changes Over 4 Latest Months .
6
1A. Business Cycle Series From 1948 to Present
9
IB. Series for International Comparisons From 1948 to Present . . . . 30
2A. Latest Data for Business Cycle Series
33
2B. Latest Data for International Comparisons
46
Section Two—Analytical Measures
Chart 2. Diffusion Indexes From 1948 to Present
Table 3. Latest Data for Diffusion Indexes
Table 4. Selected Diffusion Indexes and Components
51
54
58
For Index—Series Finding Guide, see last pages of issue.
CONTENTS
Continued
Appendixes
Appendix A. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United
States: 1854 to 1961 _ _ _ - „ _ _ _ - „ „ _ _ _ _ _ „ „ „ „ . _ 65
Appendix B. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business
Indicators _ _ .
—____.=.-..,,_-.„„„=.,„„.=,„ 66
Appendix C. Average Changes and Related Measures for Business Cycle
Series _„_„
„_..-___„__„„_„._„._„„_.. 68
Appendix D. Current Adjustment Factors for Business Cycle Series _._„_._.. 73
Appendix E, Percent Change for Selected Series Over Contraction and
Expansion Periods of Business Cycles: 1920 to 1961 ,™ 74
Appendix F. Historical Data for Selected Series
.
_ „ _ _ _ _ „ . = „_„„.. 75
Index
Series Finding Guide
„
ii
„——>___..
.__.„_„_„__„_.„ 79
Cross-Classification of Business Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
(Minor economic processes and the nuntber of series in each process are shown for each classification. See the index and back cover for series titles)'
~
^\
Cyclical
^x.
Timing
Economic
^\^
Process
"\
1. EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
LEADING INDICATORS
(36 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED
BY CYCLICAL TIMING
(16 series)
LAGGING INDICATORS
(11 series)
(25 series)
!
(14 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(5 series)
(14 series)
IV. INVENTORIES AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Long-duration unemployment
(1 series)
•
Comprehensive production
(3 series)
Comprehensive income
(2 .series)
Comprehensive consumption
and trade (3 series)
II. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(8 series)
III, FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive employment
(3 series)
Comprehensive unemployment
(3 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
New investment commitments
(8 series)
Backlog of investment
commitments
(2 series)
Inventory investment
and purchasing
(7 series)
Investment expenditures
(2 series)
:
Inventories
(2 series)
(9 series)
V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(11 series)
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
(17 series)
Sensitive commodity prices
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Profits and profit margins
(4 series)
Comprehensive wholesale prices
(2 series)
Unit labor costs
(2 series)
Flows of money and credit
(6 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
IVIoney market interest
rates
(4 series)
Outstanding debt
(2 series)
Interest rates on
business loans and mortgages
(2 series)
Comprehensive retail
prices (1 series)
:
VII. FOREIGN TRADE
AND PAYMENTS
(6 series)
Foreign trade and
payments
(6 series)
VIII. FEDERAL
GOVERNMENT
ACTIVITIES
(9 series)
Federal Government
activities
(9 series)
iii
BACKGROUND MATERIALS
A revised list of indicators was introduced in the April
issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Research work for the revised list was carried out by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER),
a private, nonprofit research organization which has
been preparing lists of economic indicators and research
reports in the field of business cycle analysis for more
than 40 years. This revised list was published by the
National Bureau in March 1967, and is the result of
a periodic review made by that agency of its previous
list of indicators of aggregate economic activity. This
is the third revision of the list originally published by
the National Bureau in 1938.
4. Two other groups of series are shown in BCD in
addition to the 88 NBER indicators. They arc "Series
Unclassified by Cyclical Timing and Economic Process" (eight series not yet classified by cyclical tinting
and economic process but under consideration for the
list of indicators) and "International Comparisons"
(19 series showing industrial production,, consumer
prices, and stock prices for several countries which
have important trade relations with the United States),
Changes in the 1966 list of indicators are as follows
(series identification number and title):
13 series new to the 1966 list:
33, Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans
58, Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods
*71, Manufacturing and trade inventories, book
value
The method of preparing the new list, the reasons for
adding certain series and dropping others, and an
explanation of the classification system used are described in a new report, INDICATORS OF BUSINESS
EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS, published by
the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 261
Madison Avenue, New York, N.Y., 10016. Other reports on the historical studies and methods of making
current interpretations of the indicators are listed in
this book.
The revised list includes some new series, discontinues some of those on, the previous list, and has
assigned timing classifications to some series previously
unclassified by timing. The chief features of the new list
follow:
1. The major principle of classification is a fourfold grouping by cyclical timing: Leading, roughly
coincident, and lagging indicators, and other selected
series. The first three categories take into account
timing at both peaks and troughs; the fourth group
includes economic activities that have an important
role in business cycles but have displayed a less
regular relation to them. The new list of indicators
includes 36 leading series, 25 roughly coincident
series, 11 lagging series, and 16 series unclassified
by timing—88 series in all; 69 are monthly and
19 are quarterly. This list includes 13 series not on
the previous NBER list and omits 5 series. In addition, 14 series previously unclassified by timing are
assigned a timing classification.
2. The type of economic process represented by
the series is Used as a secondary principle 6f classification, with emphasis on the processes that are
important for business cycle analysis. The 88 U.S.
series arc classified into eight major groups: (I)
Employment and Unemployment, 14 series; (II)
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade, 8
series; (III) Fixed Capital Investment, 14 series;
(IV) Inventories and Inventory Investment, 9 series;
(V) Prices, Costs, and Profits, 11 series; (VI) Money
and Credit, 17 series; (VII) Foreign Trade and
Payments, 6 series; and (VIII) Federal Government
Activities, 9 series. Each of these major categories
is subdivided into economic processes that exhibit
rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. For
example, under Fixed Capital Investment, new investment commitments are distinguished from investment expenditures,
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,,
weekly reporting large commercial banks
101. National defense purchases
3Q1. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
511. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
* 816. Manufacturing and trade sales
861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicle and parts
862. Index of export orders, nonelectrical machinery
5 series on the previous list but omitted from the
1966 list:
4. Number of persons on temporary layoff; all
industries
15. Number of business failures with liabilities of
$100,000 and over
*51. Bank debits, all standard metropolitan statistical areas except New York
*64. Manufacturers' inventories, book value
111. Corporate gross savings
10 series specially constructed for business cycle
studies at the suggestion of the NBER:
*10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
22. Ratio of profits to income originating, corporate, all industries
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies
*38. Index of net business formation
53. Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
3. A short list of 25 indicators, drawn from the
full list, is identified throughout BCD. This more
selective list includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident,
and 6 lagging series; 21 are monthly and 4 are
quarterly. The short list involves little of the duplication in economic coverage that is provided, for
various reasons, in the full list. The series on the
short list are identified by asterisks.
68. Index of labor cost per dollar of real corporate
GNP
505, Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
511, Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
*Denotes series included 0n "short list."
iv
limited number of changes are made from time to time to reflect new
findings of business cycle research and newly available economic series and
to report recent changes made by producing agencies in concept, composition,
comparability, coverage, seasonal adjustment methods, benchmark data, etc.
Such changes may involve additions or deletions of series used, changes in
placement of series in relation to other series, changes in components of
indexes, etc.
Changes In this issue are as follows:
1. The index of net business formation (series 38)
has been revised for the period beginning with April
1967 due to new seasonal adjustments of the components,
2. The series on total private borrowing (series
110) has been revised for the period 196*4- to date.
Revised data for 1966 and 1967 were shown in the February issue (table 2). This month, appendix F presents
historical data for this series, including revised data
for 1964 through 1966. Information concerning this
revision may be obtained from the Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System, Flow of Funds Section.
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3- Revised average changes and related measures for
series 1^, 38, and 39 are shown in appendix C (and in
table 1 for Cl). These measures were computed by the
X-ll variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment
program.
4. Appendix F includes historical data for series
13, 1^, 19, 26, 30, 37, 99, and 110.
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The April issue of BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS is
scheduled for release on April 26.
CENSUS METHOD II ADJUSTMENT FtOGRAM oA time $eries computer
program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and
irregular fluctuations and the relations among them. This program is
particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which take place
within a year.
•1.A*-;^r--l:.r^?v'1 '-{^v^* 1 1 ' *>•"!
The latest variant, X-ll, has greater generality and scope than any of tide
earlier programs. It can adjust quarterly as well as monthly series and series
with negative and positive numbers as well as those with positive numbers
alone. The X-l 1 version measures and adjusts not only for seasonal variations, but also for trading-day variations. Further, it computes many summary
and analytical measures of the behavior of each series. The program includes
various techniques, such as F tests and variance analysis, for use in extending
the scope of time series studies and is written in a simplified computer language—Fortran IV. The program deck can be purchased from the Census
Bureau at cost.
BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMiNTS,A monthly report Iror analyzing economic
fluctuations over a short span of years.
This report brings together several hundred monthly and quarterly "economic
indicator" series for the analysis of short-term economic trends and prospects.
These series have been selected, tested, and evaluated, after half a century
of continuing research, as the most useful and reliable for this purpose. The
publication provides not only the basic data, but ailso various charts and
analytical tables to facilitate such studies. In addition, a time series punchcard file and a diffusion index program are available for those who wish to
carry on further research in business cycle analysis.
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH. An annua,
economic fluctuations over a long span of years.
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report for the sh|dy of
This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive, long-range view of the U.S. economy. It has been planned,
prepared, and published as a basic research document for economists, historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together for the first time
under one cover, in meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical
basis for a study of long-term economic trends. It is a unique presentation
of the full range of factors required for an understanding of our country's
economic development. Some of the statistical series go back to 1860. A
punchcard file of the time series included in the report is available for
purchase.
VI
DESCRIPTIONS
AND
PROCEDURES
INTRODUCTION
The business cycle is generally described as consisting
of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in
aggregate economic activity—that is, the complex of
activities represented by such concepts as total production, employment, income, consumption, trade, and the
flow of funds. Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many
economists do not consider it inevitable.
The causal relations among various economic processes are primarily responsible for the cumulative
nature of cyclical forces and explain why expansions
have eventually turned into recessions and recessions
into expansions. Cyclical fluctuations in production
and employment are preceded by fluctuations in
measures which relate to future rather than current
production—measures such as new orders for durable
goods, formation of new business enterprises, and accessions to payrolls. They are followed by fluctuations
in various economic costs,, such as labor costs, interest
rates, fulfillment of long-term commitments, and holdings of inventories and debts.
TIMING CLASSIFICATION
On the basis of many years of research, the National
Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has compiled a
list of indicators of aggregate economic activity and has
classified these indicators according to whether they
usually lead, roughly coincide with, or lag behind the
cyclical movements in aggregate activity. The 1966 list,
as issued by the NBER, is the basis for the presentation of U.S. series in BUSINESS CYCLE DEVELOPMENTS. Prior to April 1967, their 1960 list was
used. The series have been grouped and classified by
the NBER as "leading," "roughly coincident," or "lagging" indicators. These indicators are described as
follows:
Leading indicators.—Series that usually reach peaks
or troughs before those in aggregate economic activity
as measured by the roughly coincident series (see
below). One group of these series pertains to orders
and contracts, another to inventory investment, and
so on.
Roughly Coincident Indicators.—Series that are direct measures of aggregate economic activity or move
roughly together with it; for example, nonagricultural
employment, industrial production, and retail sales.
Lagging Indicators.—Series, such as new plant and
equipment expenditures and manufacturers' inventories, that usually reach turning points after they are
reached in aggregate economic activity.
Also included in BCD are (a) "Series Unclassified by
Cyclical Timing," economic activities which are important in analyzing business cycles but have a less
consistent relation to them; (b) "Series Unclassified
by Cyclical Timing and Economic Process," indicators
that measure important economic relationships but
have not been classified by economic process and timing and, therefore, not yet incorporated into the list
of 88 indicators; and (c) indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and stock prices for several
countries which have important trade relations with
the United States.
The historical business cycle turning dates used in
this report are those designated by the NBER. They
mark the approximate dates when, according to NBER,
aggregate economic activity reached its cyclical high
or low levels. AS a matter of general practice, neither
new reference turning dates nor the shading for recessions will be entered in BCD until after both the new
reference peak and the new reference trough bounding
the shaded area have been designated. This policy is
followed because of the conceptual and empirical difficulties of designating a current recession and the practical difficulties of terminating the shading for a
current recession without including part of a new
expansion.
ECONOMIC PROCESS CLASSIFICATION
A secondary principle of classification, economic
process, supplements the timing classification. All series
are cross-classified according to these two principles.
The major economic process categories are employment and unemployment; production, income, consumption, and trade; fixed capital investment; inventories' and inventory investment; prices, costs, and
profits; money and credit; foreign trade and payments;
and Federal Government activity.
"SHORT LIST" OF INDICATORS
A short, substantially uriduplicated list of principal indicators provides a convenient way of summarizing
the current situation and outlook. The NBER has
identified, for this purpose, a short list of 25. This list
includes 12 leading, 7 roughly coincident, and 6 lagging
indicators; 21 are monthly and 4 are quarterly. These
series are identified throughout BCD.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report consists of two major sections as follows:
Basic Data (chart 1, tables 1 and 2),—Data for all
series are shown for the current and prior periods
in both graphic and tabular form. Thus, a broad view
of past and current business cycle fluctuations is
provided.
Analytical Measures (chart 2, tables 3 and 4).—
Measures are presented which help to determine the
magnitude and scope of;current changes in different
processes, industries, and areas, and aid in evaluating
the prospects of a turning point in the business cycle.
A list of titles and sources for all series is shown on
the back cover of this report. The series numbers are
for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
CONCEPTS AND PROCEDURES
Several other concepts and procedures used in this
report are summarized below:
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are
often necessary to bring out the underlying cyclical
trends of a series. In most cases, the seasonally adjusted data used for a series are the official figures
released by the source agency. In addition, for the
special purposes of business cycle studies, a number of
series that are not ordinarily published in seasonally
adjusted form are shown on a seasonally adjusted basis
in this report. The seasonal adjustment process usually
accounts for variations due to holidays; however, there
are some cases in which a separate holiday adjustment
is needed for holidays with variable dates.
Months for cyclical dominance (MCD) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe the
cyclical movements in a monthly series, MCD moving
averages are shown in chart 1 for series with an MCD
of "5" or more; however, to provide an indication of
the variation about these moving averages, monthly
data are also plotted.
Diffusion indexes are simple summary measures
which express what percentage of the components of an
aggregate series has risen over given time spans. Their
turning points tend to lead those of the aggregate.
Series numbers preceded by "D" designate diffusion
indexes. Many of the component series used to make
up the diffusion indexes are shown in table 4.
During the current expansion, high values for the
indicators are identified in table 2. These values are
not necessarily cyclical peak values, but are simply the
highest values reached to date,
Certain appendix materials are presented regularly
in this report, These materials include historical data,
adjustment factors, peak and trough dates, and other
information helpful in interpreting trends in the indicators.
REFERENCES
Fuller explanations of the use of indicators of aggregate
economic activity in analyzing current business conditions and prospects may be found in the following
references:
(1) Alexander, Sidney S. "Rate of Change Approaches to Forecasting—Diffusion Indexes and
First Differences," The Economic Journal,
June 1958, pp. 288-301.
(2) Broida, Arthur L. "Diffusion Indexes," American Statistician vol. IX, No. 2 ('June 1955),
pp. 7-16.
(3) Burns, Arthur F. and Mitchell, Wesley C.
Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1946.
(4) Daly, D. J. and White, D. A. "Economic Indicators in the 1960's," Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, American
Statistical Association, August 1966, pt. V, pp.
64-75.
(5) Gordon, R. A. "Alternative Approaches to
Forecasting: The Recent Work of the National
Bureau," The Review of Economics and Statistics vol. XLIV, No. 3 (August 1962), pp. 284291.
(6) Lempert, Leonard H. "Leading Indicators,"
How Business Economists Forecast (William F.
Butler and Robert A. Kavesh, Ed.) pt. I, ch. 2,
pp. 31-47. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: PrenticeHall, 1966.
(7) Moore, Geoffrey H., Editor, Business Cycle
Indicators. New York: National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc., 1961.
(8) Moore, Geoffrey H. and Shiskin, Julius. Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions,
Occasional Paper 103, New York: National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 1967.
(9) Morris, Frank E. "The Predictive Value of the
National Bureau's Leading Indicators," Business
Cycle Indicators vol. I, ch. 4, pp, 110-119, New
York: National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., 1961.
(10) Okun, Arthur M. "On the Appraisal of Cyclical
Turning Point Predictors," Journal of Business,
April 1960, pp. 101-120.
(11) Shiskin, Julius. Business Cycle Indicators: The
Known and the Unknown. Paper presented at
the 34th session of the International Statistical
Institute, Ottawa, Canada, August 24, 1963.
Washington: Bureau of the Census, 1963.
(12) Shiskin, Julius, Signals of Recession and Recovery, Occasional Paper 77. New York:
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
1961.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates end of
expansion and beginning of Recession (shaded areas) as designated
by NBER.
CHART 1 -
Series
Trough (T) of cycle indicates; end of
recession and beginning of Expansion as designated by NBER,
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
CT-March)
Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series
relationships or order, Series are
arranged in charts and tables according to their classification by
timing and economic process.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are plotted.
("IT second quarter)
Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly figures
or MCD moving averages.*)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.
B r o k e n line i n d i c a t e s a c t u a l
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted,
Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic
scale with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale 1-2" is a logarithmic
scale with 2 cycles in that distance,
etc, The scales should be carefully
noted because they show whether
or not the plotted lines for various
series are directly comparable,
Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions,
extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.
CHART 2 - Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Scale shows percent of components
rising.
Broken line indicates monthly data
over 1-month spans.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used in
.computing the
February^
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
spans.
* Many of the more irregular series are
shown in terms of their MCD moving
averages as well as their actual monthly
data. In such cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term
moving
averages are plotted IVz, 2, or
2l/z months, respectively, behind the
actual data. See appendix C for a description of MCD moving averages.
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used in
computing the indexes. ( " I V " - • •
fourth quartan
Broken line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various
.intervals, This line is also used to
indicate anticipated quarterly data,
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
To locate a series in BCD, consult the Index—Series Finding Guide in the back of the book where series are arranged into eight groups
by economic process and cross referenced by timing classification in the first column. The back cover, which lists series titles (followed
by a Roman numeral denoting economic process group) and sources in numerical order within each timing group, may also be helpful to
some readers.
Section ONE
BASIC
DATA
charts and tables
LEADING INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment
Prices, costsf and profits
Money1 and credit
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
Employment and unemployment
Production, income, consumption, and trade
Fixed capital invesfmenf
Prices, cosfs, and profifs
Money and credif
LAGGING INDICATORS
Employment and
unemployment
Fixed capital investment
Inventories and inventory investment
Prices, cosfs, and profifs
Money and credif
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
Prices, costs, and profits
Foreign trade and payments
Federal Government activities
Also SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING AND ECONOMIC PROCESS and INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS (indexes of industrial production, consumer prices, and sfock prices
for selected foreign countries)
Table 1
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
bed
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS
Average percent change"5
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
Nov.
1967
Dec.
1967
Jan.
1968
3
Feb. '67 Feb. '67 1953 to
to date
1967
to date
(with (without (without
5
sign)*
sign? 6
sign)
Feb.
1968
Current percent change3
Nov.
to
Dec.
1967
Dec.
to
Jan.
1968
Jan.
to
Feb.
1968
LEADING INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1. Avg. workweek prod, workers, mfg
*30, Nonagri. placements, all industries
2, Accession rate, manufacturing
5, Avg. weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted 3 ) .
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted 3) .
Hours
Thousands
Per 100 employ. .
40,8
476
4.5
r40.7
479
4.4
r40 . 2
4" 3
p4,8
p40.7
P479
(NA)
-0.6
il.2
0.5
3.0
4.8
0.5
2.1
4.6
-0.2
40.6
-2.2
-1.2
44*0
49.1
+ 1.2
-3.8
(NA)
Thousands
Per 100 employ. .
201
1.2
198
1.1
214
pi. 7
199
(NA)
-fl.3
-3.1
6.7
5,3
9.4
4l.C
15.1
48.3
-8.1
-54.5
47,0
(NA)
rll2.7
18, 403
rii3,8
18,168
113,5
17,223
(NA)
(NA)
4D.9
40.8
1.0
3,6
0.8
2.5
-0.3
-5.2
(NA)
(NA)
4l.l
3.1
5.2
3.7
2.4
3.4
3.6
(>,4
4.6
c
'.3
i.l
-1.4
-7.1
-4.2
42.6
-1.9
-5.2
40.8
41.0
-8.4
4-^.1
5.4
8.0
7.9
F.5
7.2
3.9
40,7
5,1
2.6
40,8
5,2
41.8
40.1
Ill, FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*38. Index of net business formation .
13. New business incorporations
New Investment Commitments:
*6, New orders, durable goods industries. ..
94. Construction contracts, value
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and7 equip. .
11. New capital appropriations, mfg,
24, New orders, mach. and equip, indus
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial buildings
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
*29. New bldg. permits, private housing —
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
21. Change in business
inventories, all
industries7 8
*
*31. Change in book value, manufacturing
8
and trade inventories
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
20. Change in book value, rrtfrs.' inventories of materials and supplies8
26. Buying policy, prod, mtls., commitments 60 days or longer ft)
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries if)
„,.
25. Change in unfilled orders, durable
8
goods industries
1957-59-100...
Number
Bil. dollars....
1957-59=100...
.Bil. dollars
do
do
Mil. sq. ft.
floor space . . .
Ann. rate, thous.
1957-59=100 .,
23. U
168
5.B4
p c -.73
4.79
r26.49
166
r5 . 76
r24.6l
159
r5.91
p25.00
156
P 5.60
r4.^3
r4.88
P4.47
63.17
1,567
102,2
64.08
rl,235
116.7
64.51
rl,427
r97 . 2
61.39
pi, 528
p!21.1
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
49.2
do
U2.8
rtl6,9
p+10.4
46
54
55
Percent
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
40.7
Percent
rO.O
P 42.1
(NA)
53
(NA)
40. Q
40.5
-0.1
40.5
41.0
-1.3
412.5
-1.2
41.6
-4.8
-21.2
i!4.2
40.7
415.5
-16.7
424,6
3.8
44.1
-6.5
iNA)
6.8
6.5
417.4
41,9
-3.6
40,3
1.4
1.5
-0.7
42.1
(NA)
40.7
+5.0
41.4
47.1
63
64
64
61
-0.7
3.6
5.0
41.6
0.0
51
48
50
55
4-1.2
7.7
7.4
-5.9
44.2
Bil. dollars ..,;
-i-0. 06
iMl.20
r-0,61
p40.48
40.06
0.85
0.50
fl.14
1957-59=100...!
QCM
100.1
99. «
99.5
-0.5
0.9
1.3
41.0
-0.3
-0.3
92.66
95.3"
95.04
90.75
40.3
1.9
2,5
42,8
-0.3
-4.5
+0.9
-0.6
-1.3
. do
-4.7
410.0
-1.81 41.09
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices iu)
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (u) . .
Profits and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits after taxes 7
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries 7
18. Profits per dollar of sales, mfg.7
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg ....
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Flows of Money and Credit:
98. Change in money supply and time
deposits^
,
85. Change in U.S. money suoply"
33. Change in mortgage debtK ..........
*113 Change in consumer installment debt 8
112. Change in business loans®
110. Total private borrowing 7
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inv. 3)
39. Delinquency rate, installment3 loans,
30 days and over (inverted )
.1941-43-10...
Ann. rate, bil.dol
P50.3
42.7
2.7
5,2
Percent
Cents
1957-59-100..
pl2.2
(NA)
r99,5
40.6
-2.4
-0.2
2.3
2.4
0.5
4-1
5,6
0,6
r99.8
p98.5
4f-.2?
r-r2.64
Ann.rate,percent
•trf.(:4
46.00
r46.0Q
do
t2.04
Ann. rate, bil.dol. 122.07 rtlQ.87 P41H.49
, t, no
t4.fC
-r4.78
do
-t 2 . 6ido
48.39
412.53
Ann. rate, mil. dot p?2,672
P44.92
p+1.32
(NA)
(NA)
p-2.28
-0.77
-0.59
40.58
+0.20
-0.26
46.3
3.39
5.35
2.42
0.71
8.24
6.3
2.49
2.89
1.34
0,86
?.77
11.0
81.06
-2.8
22.3
19.6 -125.1
(MA)
40,7
4.7
Mil. dollars
Percent
s>f..
C.r,
rlOO.4
192.56
1,74
116.62
2/>
-3.36
-3,96
-2,20
-0.42
45.73
-4.8
-2.64 4 2 . 2 8
0.96 -4.68
-1 . 38 (NA)
40.18
(NA)
-14.81
44.14
439.4
430.5
(NA)
Table 1
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
Nov.
1967
Dec.
1967
Average percent change2 3
Jan.
1968
Feb.
1968
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
1, EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Job Vacancies:
352
P360
•5
357
345
301 Nonagri job openings unfilled ..<,.... Thousands....
190
187
184
1957-59=100..
p!91
46 Help-wanted advertising
<
Comprehensive Employment:
511. Man-hours In nonagri. establishments. . . Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours...
134*37 r 134. 06 rl32.92 P134.86
*41. Employees in nonagri. establishments . . Thousands. . . . 66,918 r 67, 126 67,146 p67,694
do
71,361
71,166
42 Total nonagricultural employment
71,164 71,604
Comprehensive Unemployment:
3.8
...
3.7
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 3). . . Percent
3.7
3.5
45. Avg. weekly insured
unemploy. rate,
3
do.....
2.2
State (inverted )
2.3
2.3
2.3
1.6
1.7
1.7
do
1,7
40. Unemployment rate, married males, (inv?)
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
Comprehensive Production: 7
49. GNP in cur r en t dollar s
*50. GNP in 1958 dollars 7
*47. Industrial production
Comprehensive Income;
*52. Personal income
53. Wages, salaries in mining, mfg., constr .
Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales . „
57. Final sales7
*54. Sales of r etail stores
Ill, FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods indus. .9 .
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, indus. commod.®...
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Bank Reserves:
93 Free reserves fi (inverted3)@
Money Market Interest Rates:
114 Treasury bill rate®
116 Corporate bond yields®
115 Treasury bond yields®
117 Municipal bond yields @
„
Ann. rate, bil. dot
do
1957-59-100..
Nov.
to
Dec.
1967
Dec.
to
Jan.
1968
Jan.
to
Feb.
1968
3.1
3.0
-2.0
+1.6
+ 3.5
-3.2
+0.8
+3.8
0.4
0.3
-0.9
0.0
0.4
-0.2
+0.3
+0.3
-0.3
+1.5
+0.8
+0.6
3.8
3.8
+2.6
+5.4
-5.7
+0.2
-0.2
4.3
.4.6
4.2
5.9
+4.3
0.0
-4.5
+5.9
0.0
-6.2
1.8
0.9
0.6
1.5
1.2
1.0
+1.6
-0.5
+0.1
-0.3
+0.1
2.4
+0.2
+0.3
+0.2
0.6
0.3
0.3
-0 1
2.5
rl62.0
161.2
pl6l.3
+1.8
+0.9
+0.2
649.3
r650.9
r!70.J
p658.4
P174.1
+0.6
+0.6
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.8
+1.1
+1.2
+0.2
-0.1
+1.2
+2.2
(NA)
Mil. dollars... r89,938 r92,453 p92,848
798.1
Ann. rate, bil.dol.
Mil. dollars...
26,411 r26,470 r27,039 p27,433
+0.7
+1.7
+0.6
1.1
1.7
1.1
1.0
1.4
0.9
+2.8
+0.4
(NA)
+0.2
+2.1
+1.5
807.3
679.6
159.5
Ann. rate, bil. do). , 642.4
.= 168,4
do
r79.60
p20,77
r78.99
P79.48
+0.5
+0.6
0.8
0.9
1.4
5.4
+1.5
+0.7
-0.8
+0.6
107.4
107.6
107.7
108.1
108.3
108.7
+0.2
+0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
+0.3
+0.4
+0.3
+0.5
+0.6
+0.6
+270
+107
r+144
p+29
-3
86
93
+163
-37
+115
: 4.76
6.87
5.44 =
4.34
, 5.01
6.93
5.36
4.43
5.08
6.57
5.18
4.29
4.97
6.57
5,16
4.31
+1.1
+1.8
+1.2
+1.7
5.8
2.6
2.2
2.4
6.4
1.8
1.7
2.5
+5.3
+0.9
-1.5
+2.1
+1.4
-5.2
-3.4
-3.2
-2.2
0.0
-0.4
+0.5
0.0
0.0
6.3
0.0
0.0
0,0
+1.3
1.9
3.1
+0.5
1.7
1.8
+3.3
+1.4
(NA)
+0.3
0.4
0.5
+1.0
+0.6
(NA)
+0.4
0.7
0.6
+0.8
+0.9
(NA)
Bil. dollars...
.....do
78.40
1957-59-100..
do
107.1
, 107.2
Mil. dollars... ;
Percent
.
do
do
do
170.4
LAGGING INDICATORS
1. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Long-Duration Unemployment:
*5Q2. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Percent
15 weeks and over (inverted3).
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Investment Expenditures:
ra64.80
*6L Bus. expenditures, newplantandequip.7 Ann.rate,bil.dol. r62.70
505. Machinery and equipment sales and
r72.25
= 69.97
P73.24 ^ ' (NA)
do
business construction expenditures . .
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
Inventories:
:
139,33 rK0.74 P141.61 ; (NA)
*71. Book value, mfg.and trade inventories . Bil. dollars...
65. Book value, rr.frs.' inventories of
(NA)
r27.37
p27.63
do
27.15
finished mods
Feb. '67 Feb. '67 1953 to
to date to date
1967
(with4 (without5 (without
sign)* *
sign)
sign)
Current percent change3
+3.3
Table 1
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
CHANGES OVER 4 LATEST MONTHS-Continued
Average percent change2
Basic data1
Series
(See complete titles and sources on
back cover)
Unit of
measure
Nov.
1967
Dec.
1967
Jan.
1968
Feb.
1968
3
Feb. '67 Feb. '67 1953 to
1967
to date to date
(with4 (without5 (without
5 6
sign)
sign) sign)
Current percent change3
Nov.
to
Dec.
1967
Dec.
to
Jan.
1968
Jan,
to
Feb.
1963
LAGGING INDICATORS-Continuod
V, PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Unit Labor Costs:
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross
product (1958 dot), nonfin. corp. ? . . . .Dollars
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
1957-59-100 ...
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment debt
Mil. dollars....
*72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding * * *
do
Interest Rates on Business Loans and
Mortgages:
*67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans7®. Percent
do
118. Mortgage yields, residential©
0.6
0.6
0.9
+0.4
0.6
-0.5
+1.0
+1.8
(NA)
+0.4
0.4
0.8
+0.5
+0.5
(NA)
65,518 p65,450
+0.7
1.2
1.0
+1.6
+1.0
-0.1
6.81
6.78
-0.9
+0.4
1.0
0.9
2,2
0.6
+ 0.6
0.0
-0.4
118.6
119.0
+0.3
0.3
0.2
+ 0.3
+0.3
+0.1
+171.2
+79.1 +169.3
2,603.9 2,784.7 2,773.1
(NA)
p860
1-1,085
(NA)
p215
255
2,524.8 2,615.4 2,601.9
-439
+204
-17.2
+0.7
+1.6
+1.5
+1.4
439
1,311
80.9
4.1
13.8
8.9
3.1
+90.2
+ 6.9
-20.7
-15.7
+1.9
-0.4
(NA)
(NA)
-0.5
+0.5
-6.6
-0.3
+4.0
2.3
7.6
0.8
5.2
+0.6
pO.724
r!07.7
rlQ7.2
rlG8.3
76,506
76,889
77,287
63,797
64,845
5.96
6.77
6.81
1957-59=100...
117. a
118.2
Mil. dollars ....
do
. . do
do
do
1957-59=100...
Mil. dollars ....
r-1,851
r-1,205
+316.5
2,692.2
B78
234
2,375.7
pllO.3
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY
CYCLICAL TIMING
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Comprehensive Retail Prices:
81. Consumer prices®
VII, FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments:7 a
a. Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis ........
88 Merchandise trade balance * . . « . .
86 Exports excluding military aid. .*.
86L Export orders, durables exc. mot. veh.®
862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery .
87. General imports
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
95. Federal surplus (+) or deficit
(-), nat'l,
income and prod, acct.7 8
Ann. rate, bil. dol.
k
84. Federal cash surplus (+) or deficit7(-)* 6
do
do
83. Federal cash receipts from public
.. . .
7
82. Federal cash payments to public
do
101. National 7defense purchases, current
do. .
dollars
91. Defense Dept. obligations, total .,
Mil. dollars....
do
99. New orders, defense products industries Bil. dollars....
92 Military contract awards in U S
Mil. dollars....
p-10.5
-18.0
155.2
173.2
308
57?
57.7 -237.4
3.6
-3.3
1,?.6 423.6
+9.0
6.4
+6.3
:?.9
-3.6
2.6
/..5
3.0
;;.8
2.3
(NA)
-3.6 +11.1
13.6
(NA)
26.2 -15.0 +27.8
21.4 t29.7 -15.4 +16.1
(NA)
+ 5.2 -17.0
20.9
3,308
6,331
1,846
r3.97
3,479
7,033
2,360
r3.36
2,887
(NA)
(NA)
P3.90
(NA)
+1.9
+1.3
+3.9
+3.0
-1.5
1.9
9.7
21.7
16.1
10.3
pB4.3
rl.55
1.52
pi. 53
(NA)
-1.1
-0.3
1.2
1.0
2.2
1.0
-1.9
-fO.7
(NA)
3.70
r3.64
r3.52
p3.6l
-0.1
2.6
2.0
-1.6
-3.3
+2.6
r!20.0
rl21.4
p!21.1
-0.4
1.1
0.9
-1.9
+1.2
-0.2
+1.1
6.6
8.5
' 74.2
6,565
2,173
3.06
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL
TIMING AND ECONOMIC PROCESS
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg. 7. .....
851. Ratio, inventories to safes, mfg., trade.
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods
853. Ratio, production of business equipment
to consumer goods
854. Ratio, personal saving
to disposable
personal income7
855. Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled
Percent...
Ratio
do..
1957-59 = 100...
Rat in
rl22.3
0.075
-6.2
+9.2
+0.8
5,5
pO.122
0.130
0.118
4.4
-0.5
do
0.119
+1.0
-0.3
+0.3
+0.1
0,4
115.8
0.3
116.2
117.4 pl!7.0
856. Ratio, avg. earnings to consumer prices
1957-59=100...
3,8
6.2
-5.1
5.6
857. Vacancy rate, total rental housing7© Percent
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. ©Not seasonally adjusted. NA =not available; r =revised; p^ preliminary; e estimated; anticipated.
Series are
seasonally adjusted except for those series, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement.
See additional basic data and notes in
2
table 2.
Average percent changes are based on month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) percent changes for the specif led periods.
-''To facilitate interpretations of
cyclical movements, those series that usually fall when general business activity rises and rise when business falls are inverted so that rises ars shown as declines and
declines as rises (see series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502). 5 Percent changes are computed in the usual way
but the signs are reversed. See footnote 8 for other
"change" qualifications.
Average computed with regard to sign.
Average computed without regard to sign. 8 6The period varies among the sieries; however, for most
series, the period covered is 1953-67.
Quarterly series; figures are placed in the middle month of quarter.
Since basic data for this series are expressed in plus or
minus amounts, the changes are month-to-month (or quarter-to-quarter) differences expressed in the same unit of measure as the basic data, rather than in percentages.^Figures
are placed in the last month of quarter.
bed
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Leading Indicators
I, EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
I
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Feb.)
T
P
T
*UAvg. worttwtek, prqd. wkrs., mfg. (hour*)
*30, NonagrL placements, all Indus, (thous.
900400 <
2. Accession rate, mfg. (per 100 employees)
150-
5. Avg. weekly initial cMett, State unempJ. insur. (thous.-inverted scale)
290^
300
390
400
3. Layoff rate, mfg. [per 100 employees-inverted scale)
1948
49
5©
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
See *K0w to Read Charts 1 and 2/ page 4. Asterisk [ * ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these
62
am stown on
67
19S8
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
0 0H BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading indicators-Continued
HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
I
Uuljf) (Apr.)
P
(May) (Fib,
P T
T
Formation of Business Enterprises
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
10
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
13. New bus, incorporations (thousj
*6. New orders, tiur. goods indus. (bil. dol
94. Construction contracts, total value (index
1957-59=100; MCD moving
*10, Contracts and orders, plant and equip, (bii. dol.
55
56
57
58
5S
6©
61
62
63
'shflirt list'. Current tiatu far HSissi sines are stem en
64
bed
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948
to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators -Continued
HI. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT- Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(JuM (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
11. New capital appropriations, mfg.t Q (fail, do),
24. New orders, mach. and equip. Indus, (tail. dol.
M.
9. Constr. contracts, com. and Indus, (mil. sq. ft
of floor area;-iO
7. Private nonfarm housing starts (ami. rate,
millions; MOD moving avg.--5-term)
*29. New Wdg. permits, private
housing units (index: 1957-59-100)
1948
Sii 'M^w
49
to
50
§1
5?
53
RA
*%
B6
57
SB
59
60
61
62
@3
Ctots 1 a%& 2,' page 4. Asterisk |*| identifies series on 'short Bist'. eyrrtut data for thesi series irg shswn on pap
66
S4
67
34.
11
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
EC. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(Julyj (Aug.)
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
T
(May) (Feb.)
PT
PT
21. Change in ^inventories,
., 0 (ann. rate, bit. dot.
mfc. and trade Inventories
0 moving ivg.-5-term)
37. Purchased matHM, percent of cflpinies reporting higher Inventories
|$. Buying polipjrod. mtls.T percent of companies
|" reporting JKiitments 60 days or longer
1948
BO
§1
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
12
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
52
S3
34
99
§6
57
98
59
60
61
62
63
64
|*J Identifies series m 'sherl list', gyrrent data for these series are sHOwn m page 35,
65
isea
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
BE. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Continued
fNov.J (Dei)
P I
[May) (Feb.
P T
L; MCD moving avg,--5-term)
3C. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
ices (index: 1957-59-100)
1948
49
SO
SI
52
S3
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
6i
62
63
64
67
1968
'fr3©w to Stead Charts 1 andl 2; page 4. Asterisk (') identifies series on 'short list'. Eyrrent data lor these siriis are shown on pages 31 mfi 38.
13
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MARCH
1968
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
3C. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.]
P
T
(May) [Feb.]
P
T
Profits and Profit Margins
70 »i
GO
50*
30 =
, profits to incoan originating, cortwate. all industries, Q (percent)
18. Profits pel i$Rar of sales, mfg.t Q (cents)
*17. Ratio, Vim to unit labor mt, mfg. (index: 1957-59-100)
1948
49
SO
SI
92
53
54
95
56
57
S8 ^ 59
S©
61
62
63
64
See 'How to Read eSsarts 1 and 2,* page-4. Asterisk |*| identifies series m 'short list'. Current data for these series are Shawn on page 36.
14
6§
66
@7
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
H. MONEY AND CREDIT
(July) (Aug.)
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(July) (Apr.)
P T
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
•MMwHHMCDimOTing
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Asterisk ( * j identifies series on 'short list'.
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
67
1968
Current data for these series are shown on page 37.
15
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
bed
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Leading Indicators-Continued
51. MONEY AND CREDIT -Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Aug.]
P
T
SRfayJ (FefoJ
P T
(July) (Apr.]
P T
lit, fotal private
'. \\
, Q am. rats, bit, dol
of bus. faitqy (mil. dol.-~ inverted scale;
'**$* MCO moving avg.-8-term)
Delinquency £«b*, 30 days and over, total
installment Wtws (percent-in verted scale)
49
50
See 'H@w to toad Charts
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
16
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
S3
S4
§5
S6
57
S8
S9
i for these series are shewn on page 31
SO
01
Q2
63
64
6S
66
67
1068
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
»ov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) [Apr,J
P T
(May) [Feb.!
P T
500-
301. Nonagri. job opemags unfilled, BES [thousands]
t^i I, !r™
v il
. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1957-59-100)
$11. Man-hours in nonagri. establishments
jann. rate,'hi maWis]' ~*
*41. Employees in nonagri.
establishments (millions)
42. Tot# nonagri. employment millions)
1943
49
See 'How to Read
50
51
52
S3
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
63
63
64
@5
67
1968
s
Charts 1 and 2/ page 4. Asterisk [ ) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for tnes@ series are sSiowsi m pap 38.
17
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
F
(Fib.)
T
Comprehensive Unemployment
*43. Urmapioyment rate, Utat (percent-inverted scale)
4T~Avg. weekly insured unemployment rtte (percent-inverted scale)
40. Unemployment rate, married males (percent-inverted scale)
I.
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
49
50
51
52
S3
54
55
56
57
58
1
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
to Read Charts 1 and 2,' pagg 4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'short list . Current data for these series are shawn on pages 38 and 39.
Digitized
18for FRASER
66
(17
bed
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
H. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P I
[July) (Aug.)
P
I
•
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(May) [Feb.)
F T
*52. Personal income (ann. rate, bil. dot.
53. Wages and salaries^ iroiimg,
mfg.* eanstMairo^ate,
*54. Sales of retail
stores (bil. do I.)
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
67
1968
See 'How to Read Charts 1 ami 2,' page4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 39.
19
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
Iff .FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
P
(May) (Fell.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (Aug.)
T
backlog of Investment Commitments
. Mfrs.' unfilled eritrs, dur. goods Indus, (bll. dol.)
97. Backlog of cap. afpipriations, mfg., Q (bit. dol.)
. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
55. Wholesale prices, .Mistrial commodWts (index; 1957-59=100]
58. Wholesale pfte«s,mfrd goods jfcndex: 1957-59-100)
1948
49
SO
Bl
See 'H@w t9 iead eterts 1 aud
Digitized
20 for FRASER
52
53
S4
55
96
57
58
59
page i ewrent data for these series are shown en page 40=
SO
61
63
64
6S
86
117
bed
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators-Continued
[.MONEY AND CREDIT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
[July] (Aug.)
P
I
(July) (Apr.)
P I
(May] (Feb.)
P I
-1.0-1
93, Free reserves (bil. dol.-inverted scale
=0.5-J
o+0.5J
114. Treasury bill rate (percent)
B-
116. fr&rporate bond
54-1
Treasury bond yields (percent]
•1
3<
5-r
117. Municipal bond yields (percent)
?:f 2:; page 4*
21
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
bed
MARCH 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Lagging Indicators
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
(July) (Aug.)
P
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P
T
T
Long Duration Unemployment
*502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over [percent-inverted scale)
,_„,„
^
J
2«
IH. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
93-
8(570-
Investment Expenditures
***!:£.
*61. Bus. expend., new plant and equip., Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
_™J 4G-
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
160140
*71. Book value, mfg. mi trade inventories (bil. dol.)
120 -
100»
30-
65. Book value of mfrs.' invgntittti, finished goods (bil. dol.
2015-
10-
1948
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
See 'How tc Read Charts 1 and 2,' page4. Asterisk (*) identifies series on 'short list'. Current data for these series are shown on page 41.
Digitized
22 for FRASER
65
66
t*7
1968
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Lagging Indicators-Continued
:. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
lAug.)
T
(May! (Fib.)
P T
(July) (Apr.)
P
T
0.75-
Unit Labor Costs
68. Labor cost (curr. dol.) per dot. of
„
real
corp. GNP, Q (dol,) —~
0.700.65
IIO-i
3ZE. MONEY AND CREDIT
Outstanding Debt
66. Consumer Installment debt (bil. dol.)
*72. Com. and ind. loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large com. banks (bil. dol.)
Interest Rates on Business Loans and Mortgages
*67. Bank rates on short-term
bus. loans, Q (percent)
118. Mortgage yields, residential (percent)
23
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MARCH
1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing
3C. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
IJulyJ (Aug.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
fJuly) |Apr.|
P T
(May) (Feb.J
P T
Comprehensive Retail Prices
81. Consumer prices (index: 1957-59=100)
301. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
Digitized
24 for FRASER
89. U.S. balance of payments, Q (bil. dot.)
a. Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis
88, Merchandise trade balance |bi. dot.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)
o
bed
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing-Continued
HI. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS -Continued
(Now.) (Oct.]
P
T
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
(May) (Feb.)
P T
-
86. Exports, exc. military aid (bil. dot.;
861. Export orders, durables exc. motor vehicles
(bii. doL; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
3.5«
5
, /{Jijl A ft
A
f lAfVfclA.] L
M
862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
1957-59^100; MCD moving avg^4-term)
87. General imports (bil. dot.; MCD moving avg.--4-term)
25
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Unclassified by Cyclical Timing-Contimued
3COI.FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
(Nov.) |0et.)
P
T
Digitized
26for FRASER
ACTIVITIES
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
P
(Apr.)
(May) (Fcfe.J
T
P I
95. Fed. surplus or deficit, natkmaJ income and product acct, Q {am. rate, bit. do I.)
84. Fed. cash surplus or deficit, Q (ann. rate, bil. dd)
83. Fed. cash receipts from public, Q (am. rate, bl. do].]
82. Fed. cash payments to public, Q (ann. rate, bH. do!.]
bed
Chart 1A
bed
MARCH 1968
BASIC DATA
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing-Continued
. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES-Continued
(Nav.) [Oct.]
P
T
(Juty (Apr.)
P
(May) (Fab.)
T
91. Defense Oept. obHg., totst ttort. tfoLrMCtrnrnvftrf afg.-8-term)
90. Defense Dept, oblig., procurement (bil. do I.; MCD moving avg.-6-term]
- -si
i 1
99. Hew orders, defense products mduslries fbfl. dol.; MCD moving avgJ-6-term)
92. Milrtary coirtract awards hi U.S. fWI. dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
27
Chart 1A
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
bed
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing and Economic Process
(How.) (Oct.)
P
(July) (Aug.)
P
T
T
Digitized
28 for FRASER
(July) (Apr,
P T
(May) [Feb.;
P T
Ratto, wilful lo xapiftf9;infK/,ir(p6it6nt]
95
sagsHO
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
mt»f * dor; goods Indus;
41):
SJr
"853. Ratio, production of business equipment to
-
fe«
eilate fer tCse§0 series are §BO©OT @oo pap '
10S
Chart 1A
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued f
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing and Economic Process-Continued
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July! (Aug.)
P
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
P
(Feb.
T
854, Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income, 0
855. Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled to
number of persons unemployed
J
856. Ratio, avg. hourly earnings of prod, workers in mfg.
to consumer prices (index: 1957-59=100)
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing, Q (percent)
29
Chart IB
BASIC DATA
MARCH 11968
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
FROM 1948 to PRESENT
industrial Production Indexes
11957-59 100]
Digitized
30 for FRASER
121. OECD European countries
si
' page 4.
SS
Si
S?
SS
§9
i fer ftfoese series ar@ sto« eeu pags 46.
bed
Chart IB
bed
MARCH
BASIC DATA
1968
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS |
FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Consumer Price Indexes
[1957-59-100]
1948
49
50
51
52
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and • , page 4.
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
1968
Current data for these series are shown on page 47.
31
Chart IB
BASIC DATA
MARCH :i968
bed
SERIES FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Stock Price Indexes
(1957-59 100)
1948
49
50
§1
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
See 'How to Read Charts 1 and 2,' page 4. Current data for these series are shown on page 48.
32
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
196S
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Leading Indicators
Major
Economic Process
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
Minor
Economic Process
Marginal Employment Adjustments
Formation of Business
Enterprises
Year
and
month
*L Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
*30. Nonagricultural placements,
all industries
2. Accession
rate, manufacturing
(Hours)
(Thous.)
(Per 100 employees)
5. Average
weekly initial
claims for
unemployment
insurance,1 State
programs
(Thous.)
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
(Per 100 employees)
(1957-59=100)
(Number)
(2)
1966
41.4
January
February
March
13. Number of new
*38. Index of net
business formation business incorporations
B> 41.6
41.5
570
g> 600
589
4.9
4.9
5.1
222
219
182
1.2
1.2
1.1
109.1
109.6
109.6
18,087
17,451
17,266
1.2
1.1
1.3
107.6
106.8
106.2
17,057
16,644
16,577
104.8
103.9
Apri 1
May
June
41.5
41.4
41.3
522
513
567
4.9
5.1
July
August
September
41.2
41.4
41.4
542
543
509
4.7 ;
5.1
4.9
230
196
183
1.7
1.1
1.1
102.7
16,074
16,343
15,764
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
41.3
41.3
41.0
533
530
524
5.1
4.8
4.6
186
194
212
1.1
1.2
1.3
103.3
100.6
1,01.4
16,233
16,206
16,583
41.0
40.3
40.4
519
497
4.6
4.3
4.1
203
242
256
1.4
1.5
1.7
102.2
103.2
103.3
16,703
15,987
16,244
April
May
June
40.5
40.3
40.3
474
448
487
4.2
4.6
4.6
263
234
225
1.5
1.4
1.4
r!03.7
rl,05.0rlOB.l
16,760
17,627
17,799
July.
August
September
40.4
40.7
40.8
484
486
480
4.2
4.3
4.3
261
215
209
1.6
1.1
1.3
108.4
rllO.7
rllO.3
16,300
17,674
18,118
40.7
40.8
r40.7
474
476
479
4.7
4.5
4.4
209
201
198
1.3
1.2
rllO.6
rll2.7
§£>m3.8
18,000
fc> 1M03
18,168
r40.2
P40.7
498
P479
P 4.8
.(NA)
214
199
113.5
(NA)
17,223
(NA)
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
:
534
K> 179
185
186
B> 1.1
pi. 7
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE 1 Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by [j£>; for series that move counter to movements in genera! business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93t and 502), current tow values are indicated by
B> . Series numberVare"forTdenTificatTon only and doi not reflect series relationships^ order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk {*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
3
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.
See
New Features and Changes for This Issue," page v.
33
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT— Con.
Minor
Economic Process
New Investment C@mmitntsn?s
*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries
Year
and
month
(Bil.dol.)
*10. Contracts
94. Index of
and orders for
construction
contracts, total plant and equipment
value
(1957-59=100)
(Bil.dol.)
11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations
(Bil.dol.)
24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders, machinery ana
equipment industries
(Bil.dol.)
9. Construction
contracts, commercial and
industrial
buildings
(Mil. sq.ft.
floor space)
1966
January
February
March
23.5ft
23.74
24.89
152
157
158
5.46
5.71
5.66
6! 34
4.45
4.58
4.59
62.29
g>7C.42
67.99
April
May
June
24.20
24. 28
24 . 59
161
156
147
5.91
5.77
5.57
B>6l69
4.79
4.84
4.75
July
August
September
24.37
23.51
20.27
147
139
146
6.10
5.87
B>6.28
5.97
|£>S.Q9
4.81
October
November
December
24.24
23.03
23.96
139
130
133
5.76
5.52
5.45
22.07
22.33
22.06
126
143
149
April
May
June...
22.23
23.86
24.26
July...
August
September
October
November
December
1967
January
February
.
March
7. New private *29. Indox of
new private
nonfarm housing
housing units auunits startedil
thorized by local2
building permits
(Ann. rate, thous.) (1957-59-100)
1,^03
1 , 381
1,400
111.9
106.4
112.1
68.28
64.00
65.85
1,356
1,232
1,161
105.3
97.4
84.7
4.91
63.54
63.52
64.40
l,C6l
1,C83
1,C23
82.1
75.2
65.3
5^96
4.82
4.65
4.60
54.76
64.42
60.21
i?24
956
91)
63.4
63.4
67.1
5.40
5.34
5.50
5^76
4.54
4.24
4.32
49.09
57.64
56.14
1,079
1,13-?
1,067
83.1
78.9
81.9
138
154
164
5.37
5.55
5.82
4.44
4.61
4.79
58.27
54.72
62.30
1,099
s!*3
1,214
90.7
91.1
97.9
23.72
23.73
23.42
149
165
168
5.72
6.16
5.74
5.' 96
4.35
5.06
4.66
56.72
61.66
60.4'J
1 ,3 ( >"
1 , 381
3,4l'">
96.4
99.4
102.3
23. 3K
23.54
g> r26.49
8>171
168
166
5.96
5.84
r5.76
P5.73
4.61
4.79
r4.83
58.42
63.17
64.08
1,478
1,56"
rl,23'-
106.9
102.2
116.7
r4.38
P4.47
64,51
61-39
rl,4.?V
pl,5:?tf
1*97.2
p!21.1
.
1968
January
February
March
r24.6l
p25,OQ
159
156
r5.91
P5.60
i,?5.;
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by©. Current high values are indicated by GD>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current lew values are indicated by
. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover.. Series preceded by
an asterisk
terisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p". preliminary; V, estimated; Maf,, anticipated;
antici
and "NA*f not available.
value (1,833) was reached in October 1963.
High value (124.6) was reached in February 1964.
3
34
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
taiomie Process
INVENTORIES m D INVENTORY INVESTSSENT
Minor
Economic Process
Snvif?f@ry limKtment and Pyrchssin|1
Year
and
month
26. Production
20. Change in
37. Purchased ma21. Change in
*31. Change in
materials, perbook value of
terials, percent of
book value of
business invencent of compamanufacturers'
companies reporttories after valmanufacturing
nies reporting
inventories of
invenand trade inven- ing higher
uation adjustcommitments 60
materials2 and
tories1
tories, total
ment, all indussupplies
days or longer®
tries
(Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Ann.rate,bil.doL) (Percent reporting) (Ann. rate, bil.dol.) (Percent reporting)
32. Vendor performance, percent of
companies reporting
slower deliveries©
25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
(Percent reporting)
(Bii.dol.)
1966
January
February
March
+9.9
+8.4
+11*6
+13.2
49
47
52
+1.1
+1.1
68
74
+0.8
67
68
E> 86
r^
85
+1.27
+1.31
+1.65
April
May
June
+14.0
+13.0
+18.1
+16.5
51
53
54
+4.1
+3.5
+3,6
69
70
72
82
75
69
+1 . 49
+1*36
+1.70
July
August
September
+11.4
+13.3
+15*5
+9.6
58
57
53
+1.1
+ 5.3
+3.3
73
73
72
70
73
72
+1 . 34
+0.64
|j> +2.30
R> +18.5
+18.2
+18,4
|t>+19.8
56
55
55
+1.3
+2.2
+1.6
E> 75
73
70
70
64
57
+0.79
-0.21
+0.24
+7.1
+12.9
+2.2
+3.9
48
45
46
+2 5
-1 0
-0.3
72
67
68
48
51
38
-0.99
-0 . 30
-1,07
April
May
June
+0.5
+3.2
+1.3
-4.6
37
40
43
+0.9
-1.0
-1.4
67
66
68
39
36
38
-0.04
+0.96
+1.21
July
August. .
September
+3.8
+3.7
+3.9
-0.7
40
42
44
-0.8
+2.2
-1,0
61
66
61
41
43
44
+0.52
+0.09
+0 47
+9*2
+5.7
+12.8
r+16.9
45
46
54
-0.2
+0.7
rO.O
62
63
64
50
51
48
+1.07
+0.06
r+1.20
p+10.4
(NA)
55
53
p+2.1
(NA)
64
61
50
55
r-0.61
pi- 0.48
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by (FD>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B>> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
value (63) was reached in November 1964.
High value (+6.6) was reached in December 1961.
2
35
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Profess
Minor
Economic Process
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Sensitive Commodity
Prices
Profits and Profit Margins
Stock Prices
*23. Index of industrial materials prices®
* 19. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks®
*16. Corporate profits
after taxes
22. Ratio of profits to
income originating,
corporate, all industries
18. Profits (before
taxes) per dollar of
sales, all manyfacturing corporations
*17, Ratio, price to
unit labor cost index,
manufacturing
(1957-59^100)
(1941-43 = 10)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Cents)
(1957-59-100)
Year
and
month
1966
January
February
March
B>9-*
105.1
105.1
105.1
13.2
9!^
104.4
105.1
104.6
13^6
9!?
120.5
122.9
B> 123,5
93.32
92.69
88.88
49 '.2
April
May
June...
121.5
118.3
118.4
91.60
86.78
86.06
49^2
July
August
September
118.8
111.7
108.9
85.84
80.65
77.81
49^4
October
November
December
106.3
105.9
109.8
77.13
80.99
81.33
49*3
12.6
9io
1967
January
February
March
106.8
105.2
10?.*)
84.45
87.36
89.42
46.5
12.0
rt/i
April
May
June
100.1
99.6
99.8
90.96
92.59
91.43
46 ! 5
11.9
«.*2
100,8
100.3
99 . 8
July
August
September
98.3
47^1
11.7
8.1
)7.B
93.01
94.49
B> 95.81
100.2
99 . 8
99.2
October
November
1 December
97/7
99.1
100.1
95.66
92.66
95.30
|t> P50.3
p!2.2
(MA)
1968
January
February
March
98.1
(
1
99 , 8
99.5
100.1
3
95.04
90.75
88. 36
{£> 13! 5
|£> 105.?
104.5
104.2
103.9
103.0
103.1
1 01 . *>
ini.o
inn. 7
99 . 5
r99.fi
rion.4
r99.8
P n rt.5
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by©. Current high values are indicated by G£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3 r 5,14, 39, 40 r 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
[£>*. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk f*)are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "af, anticipated anc "NA", not available.
1
Average
a
for March 30, 21, and 22.
Av©rag© for March 21, 22, and 25.
36
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Leading Indicators—Continued
Major
EceRomsc Process
MONEY AND CREDIT
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
Flows of Money and Credit
98. Change in
money supply
and time
deposits
85. Change in
U.S. money
supply
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1966
January
February
March
33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by fin. inst.
and life insurance companies
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
+6. AS
Credit Difficulties
*113. Net change
in consumer
installment
debt 2
112. Change in
business loans
110. Total private borrowing
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.doj.)
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
14. Current lia- 39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
bilities of business failures 3 and over, total 4
installment loans
(Mil. dol.)
111.67
94.59
+7.92
+2.88
+6.36 i
+23.81
+21.85
+22.87
+7.16
+6.46
+7,79
+14.10
+6, 24
+8.76
70,500
+12.36
+4.80
+7.80
+9.24
-2.16
+2.88
+20.77
+17.76
+15.22
+6.37
+5.92
+6,59
+8.50
+9.58
+17.70
U> 73,908
July
August
September .
+3.72
+5.16
+3.36
-4.92
+1.44
+2.88
+12.54
+12.68
+11.40
+6.77
+7.22
+5.70
U>+21.11
+3,28
+0.67
58,004
62.84
159.29
128.77
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
-0.72
-0.72
+5.52
-2.76
0.00
+2.16 ;
+9.96
+9.66
+6.86
+4.56
+5.33
+3.85
+5.93
+2.63
+0.14
45,748
128.02
116.90
194.09
April
May
June
+4.56
+9.12
\,
106.93
92.41
111.23
-0.72
+8.40
+11.16
r+9.40
+12.11
+11.95
+3.36
+2.59
+3.17
r+7 . OA
+0.86
+6,83
60,576
118.61
111.23
108.87
April ..
May
June
+5.64
+13.08
+14.28
-2.76
K> +12.48
+11.64
+2.56
+2.32
+3.50
+9.25
+1.63
+8.16
61,640
;
+11.64
r+15.60
+18.11
110.80
93.00
87.20
July
August
September
+13.44
+12.96
+11.52 j
+8.04
+0,72
+14.11
+22.82
+20.74
+2.70
+4.13
+3.41
+16.46
-9.44
-2.34
68, 136 ^
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
+10.08
+8.64
+5.28
+7.32
+6.00
+2.04
+21.02
+22.07
r+19.87
+3.73
+5.02
+4.60
+5.36
+2.66
+8.39
r+6.00
p+1.32
P+18.49
(NA)
+4.78
(NA)
+12.53
p-2.28
;
r+2.64 i
P+4.92
li?3
98.73
+7.68
+14.16
0>+15.00
+6.12
(Percent)
p72,672
76.85
91.13
91.29
1.78
li-76
li?6
1.79
li75
1.82
1.90
1.72
lies
95.81
85.55
192.56
li?4
116.62
81.06
(NA)
1.66
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by GO; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
EO . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series
precededby
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "af, anticipated; and "NA1*, not available.
^igh value (24.02) was reached in October 1963.
High value (+8.94) was reached in April 1965.
2
3
High
4
value (52.86) was reached in August 1963.
High value (1.57) was reached in May 1963.
37
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident Indicators
Major
Economic Process
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
Comprehensive Employment
Job Vacancies
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspapers
(Thous,)
(1957-59 - 100)
511. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments
(Ann. rate, bit.
man-hours)
Comprehensive QJnem^ioyonenf
*41. Number of
employees in
nonagricultural
establishments
42. Total nonagricultural
employment,
labor force
survey
*43. Unemployment rate, total
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State1
programs
40. Unemployment rate,
married males
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
1966
January
February
March
401
425
191
|£>201
126.73
127.89
128.71
62,50?
62,889
63,296
68,1B5
68,179
68,192
3.7
3.8
April
May
June
431
426
424
189
185
184
128.23
128.27
129.52
63*427
63,616
64,069
68,375
68,488
68,772
July
August
September
428
424
B> £38
186
189
189
129.45
130.00
129.86
64,180
64,345
64,394
October
November
December
429
414
404
193
194
193
130.52
131.11
131.13
1967
January
February
March
'-92
375
362
1H9
190
184
April
May
June
.353
351
351.
July
August
September
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
;m.3
2,(
2.,(
2,,?
1.9
3.7
3.9
3.8
2..1
2..1
2.,:-
1.8
1.8
1.9
68,943
69,230
69,264
:.8
3.«
3.8
2./.
2,4
2,3
2.0
1.9
1.8
64,694
65,014
65,251
69,515
69,915
69,828
3.8
3.6
3.7
*>"
132.15
131.57
131,67
65,564
65,692
65,749
70,104
"0,187
69,964
3.7
.7
.7
2.?
*?. L
2.*6
1.7
1.7
IHl
174
171
1,31.08
130.89
131.80
65,653
65,639
65,903
70,096
69,822
70,430
.7
.9
.9
2.6
2.7
2.6
1.9
344
"3'jf!
373
169
180
1H5
131.62
132.74
132.56
65,939
66,190
66,055
70,631
70,708
70,941
.9
.8
4.3
2.i»
2.6
2.4
1.8
1.9
1.8
36;>
3W
34',
186
187
190
132.35
134.37
rl34.06
66,243
66,918
r 67, 126
71,017
71,166
71,361
4.3
3.tf
3.7
2.3
2.3
2.2
1 .9
1.7
1.7
357
P360
184
p!91
67,146
rl32.92
j£>p!34.86 J>p67,694
71,164
B>71,604
2.3
2.3
(»£> ] . ( »
i«4
3.9
•>&
O
7
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
I,M
1/J
1.9
1.7
April
May
June...,
July...,
August
September
October.
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by©. Current high values are indicated by GE>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; end "NA* not available.
exclude Puerto Rioo which is included in figures published by source agency.
38
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indicators—Continued
Major
Economic Process
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION AID TRADE
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
Comprehensive fncorn©
Comprehensive Production
49. Gross national product
in current dollars
*50. Gross national product
in 1958 dollars
*47. Index of industrial production
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(1957-59=100)
1966
January
February
March
*52. Personal
income
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
53. Wages and
salaries in mining, manufacturing, and construction
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Comprehensive Consumption ond Trade
*816. Manufacturing and trade
sales
57. Final sales
(series 49 minus
series 21)
(Mil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
*54. Sales of
retail stores
(Mil.dol.)
725.9
645.4
150.7
152.4
153.8
563.7
567.4
572.3
149.4
151.5
153.4
84,679
84,517
86,939
716 lo
25,081
25,049
25,536
April
May
June
736,7
649 !3
153.9
155.4
156.5
•574.7
576.1
581.1
154.0
155.0
156.8
85,434
85,365
86,917
722.6
24,949
24,475
25,394
July
August
September
748.8
654.8
157.2
157.8158.1
584.7
589.1
594.1
156.9
158.5
159.5
86,611
86,939
86,734
737 .'4
25,362
25,572
25,703
October
November
December
762.1
661 li
159.4
159.1
159.5
597.5
602.1
605.0
160.5
161.3
162.1
86,983
86,528
87,690
7431 6
25,550
23,610
25,368
766.' 3
660.7
158.2
156.6
156.4
610.4
612.6
615.6
163.3
162.4
162.7
87,182
86,138
87,255
759^2
25,687
25,470
25,739
April
May
June
775 ."i
664.7
156.5
155.6
155.6
616.5
618.2
622.6
162.2
161.5
162.4
86,656
87,358
88,368
774.6
25,918
25,897
26,544
July
August
September
791 la
672.0
156.6
158.1
156.8
627.0
631.6
634.4
163.4
165.2
165-.5
88,759
89,067
88,633
787.4
26,444
26,422
26,732
gD> 679*.6
156.9
159.5
0> 162,0
635.9
642.4
649.3
165,2
168.4
170.4
r 87, 517
r 89, 938
r92,453
798]l
26,089
26,411
r 26, 470
161.2
P161.3
r650.9
|>p658.4
rl70.3
U>pl74.1
|J>P92,848
^^ (HA)
1967
January
February
March
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
B> ac?l3
fj>
r27,039
B>p27,433
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE- Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by GO; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
39
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident Indicators— Continued
Major
Economic Process
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
PRICES, COSTS, AND
PROFITS
Minor
ieenoftik Process
Backlog of Investment
Commitments
Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices
Year
and
month
96. Manufacturers* unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
97. Backlog
of capital
appropriations, manufacturing
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
1966
January
February
March
63.«0
65.11
66.76
Apri 1
May
June
68.25
69.63
71 . 31
July
August
September
72.60
73.29
75.59
October
November
December
,
76. 3 8
76.17
76.42
55. Index of
wholesale
prices, industrial commodities©
58. Index of
wholesale
prices, manufactured
goods®
(1957-59 = 100) (1957-59-100)
MONEY Km CREDIT
Bank
Reserves
Money Mark@t Intenst Rat3$
93. Free
reserves ®
114. Treasury
bill rate®
116. Corporate bond
yields ®
(MM.dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
115. Treasury 117. Municipal
bond yields® bond yields®
(Percent)
(Percent)
104.4
104.9
105.0
-44
-107
-246
4.60
4.67
4.63
4.93
19! 33
103.5
103.3
104.0
5.09
S33
4.43
4.61
4.63
3.52
3.64
3.72
20.56
104.3
104.7
104.9
105.1
105.5
105.6
-268
-352
-352
4.61
4.64
4.54
5.3«
5.55
5.67
4.55
4.57
4.63
3. Mi
3.65
3.77
20! 77
105.2
105.2
105.2
106.0
106.4
106.4
-362
-390
-368
4.86
4.93
5.36
5.81
6.04
6.14
4.7-)
4.80
4.7'»
3.95
4.12
4.12
2o! 72
105.3
105.5
105.5
106.3
106.2
106.2
@>>-431
-222
-165
g> 5.39
5.34
5.01
6.04
6.11
5.98
4.70
4.7;.
4.6'.
3.94
3.H6
3.H6
20 [40
105.8
106.0
106.0
106.4
106.4
106.3
-16
-4
+ 236
4.76
4.55
4.29
5.53
5.35
5.55
4.40
4.4"
4.4'
3.54
3.*>2
3.55
106.2
106.3
106.6
4175
4269
+297
3.85
3.64
3.48
5.59
5.90
6.06
4.51
4.7f
20.32
106.0
106.0
106.0
4.8t-
3.60
3.^9
3.96
20! 63
106.0
106.3
106.5
106.8
106.8
107.1
4272
+298
4268
4.31
4.28
4.45
6.06
6,30
6.33
.>*
-95
.99
4.02
3.99
4.1?
107.1
107.2
107.6
4 •! 60
4270
t-107
4.59
4.76
5.01
6.53
6.87
B> 6.93
;> . 19
[JXp20.77
106.8
107.1
107.4
•5.36
4.10
4.34
jj> 4 - 4 3
107.7
B>108.3
ioa.1
g>ioa.7
r-*144
P429
5.08
4.97
6.57
6.57
'».18
*>. 16
4.29
4.31
1967
January
February
March
75.43
75 . 13
74.06
..
April „
May ,
June.
74. 02
74. 9''
76,18
July
August
September
76. ao
October
November
December
78.34
^ 78.40
Rf>r?9.60
76.71
77.27
1968
January
February
March
r7B.99
P79.4-B
fi>'5.44
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December . . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by(B>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; °p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA* not available.
40
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Lagging Indicators
Major
Economic Process
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Minor
Economic Process
Lorn, Ouraiion
Unemployment
investment Expenditures
Inventories
Year
and
month
*502. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
*61. Business expenditures on new plant and
equipment, total
(Percent)
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1966
January
February
March
0.8
0.8
0.8
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)
*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value
65. Manufacturers* inventories of finished goods,
book value
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
58.00
65.13
63.91
66.58
121.30
122.26
123.36
23.20
23.37
23.57
April
May .
June.. .
0.8
0.7
0.6
6o!l6
65.20
65.30
66.18
124.45
125.95
127.33
23.60
23.84
23.92
July
August.
September
0.6
0.6
0.6
61 '.25
68. 41
68.19
68.68
128.43
129.73
130.53
24.24
24.39
24.59
October . . .
November
December
1967
January
February
March. . . . .
0.7
0.6
0.6
g>62*.80
69.13
68.12
68.56
132.05
133.58
135.23
24.77
25.27
25.71
0.6
0.6
0.6
61 '.65 ;
70.4469.50
68.85
136,30
136.49
136.82
26.13
26.40
26.58
April
May
June
0.6
0.6
0.6
61.50
66.79
67.56
68.30
137.08
137.19
136.80
26.87
27.02
26,76
July
August
September
0.6
0.6
0.6
60^90
70.20
69.75
70.52
137.11
137.85
137.79
26.92
27.04
26.98
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March.
0.6
0.6
0.6
62 '.70
68.95
69.97
r72.25
138.27
139.33
rHO.74
26.92
27.15
r27.37
6>p7^t
*>*"($
[H> p27.«3
April
May
June
0.6
B> 0 - 6
:
ra64*.80
(NA)
a64*30
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE' Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated byG£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5,14, 39, 40 r 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B> Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "shortlist 11 of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "^anticipated; and "NA", not available.
41
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Lagging Indicators-Continued
Mu(or
Economic Process
PRICES, COSTS, IWD PROFITS
Minor
Economic Process
ynifisie r Costs
Year
and
month
MOW ANGJ
CREDIT
Interest Re ttes or Ruwss Uans
old Mo): fpps
Wsttwd ing aebt
68. Labor cost (cur.
dol.) per unit of gross
product (1958 dol.),
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Index of labor
cost per unit of output, manufacturing
66. Consumer installment debt
*72. Commercial and
industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large
commercial banks
*67. Bank rates on
short-term business1
loans, 35 cities (u)
118. Mortgage yields,
residential©
(Dollars)
(1957-59 = 100)
(Mil. dol.)
(MIL dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
1966
January
February
March
c.670
April
May
June
0.679
July
August
September
C.687
October
November
December
0.693
1967
January
February
March
0.711
April
May
June.
0.713
July
August
September
0.72?
October
November
December
|j£> pO.724
1968
January
February
March
99.3
99.8
99.9
67,920
53,255
68,458
69,107
53,747
54,022
100.7
100.4
101.0
69,638
70,131
70 , 680
55,118
56,134
57,874
100.8
101.8
102.1
71,244
71,846
72,321
59,380
59,014
59,381
102.3
103.1
103.0
72,701
73,145
73,466
59,911
60,042
59,763
104.8
105.3
105.6
73,746
73,962
74,226
r60,*W
60,525
61,167
105.4
106.8
74,439
74,632
74,924
62,407
61,898
63,341
106.6
107.0
10S.O
75,149
75,493
75 , 777
64,352
62,944
63,309
r, ( 9 ^
107.6
r!07.7
r!07.2
76,388
76,506
76,889
63,592
63,797
64,845
*..%
rlOB.3
g>pll0.3
g> 77,287
gr> 65,518
^ 65^0
106.0
(NA)
5.5 r i
r
?.#?
5.70
(NA)
6.00
(NA)
6.32
6.45
6.51
6. f »H
6.10
6,63
g>6.31
(NA)
6.81
6.77
6.13
6.62
6.46
6.%
6.29
c
,95
6 . 44
6.51
6/>3
6 . 60
6.61
6.65
6.77
6.81
B> 6.81
6.7^
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated byG£>; for series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3,5,14, 39, 40, 43, 45, 93, and 502), current low values are indicated by
B> . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. Series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Prlor to 1967, data are based on 19 cities and refer to the last month of the quarter.
42
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing
Major
Economic Proe©ss
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
Mirror
Economic Procsss
Comprehensive
Retail Prte
81. Index of consumer prices©
Year
and
month
mm
Foreign Trade and Payments
89. Excess of receipts (+) or
payments (-) in U.S. balance
of payments
a. Liquidity
balance basis
(1957-59=100)
AND PAYMENTS
(Mil. dot.)
b. Official
settlements
basis
(Mil.dol.)
88. Merchandise
trade balance
(series 86 minus
series 87)
86. Exports, excluding military
aid shipments,
total
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
862. Index of
861. Manufacturers'
new orders
export orders,
;
or export, durable nonelectrical
machinery
goods except
motor vehicles
and parts ©
(Mil.dol.)
(1957-59 - 100)
87. General
imports, total
(Mil.dol.)
1966
January
February
March
111.0
111.6
112.0
2,271.6
2,371.2
2,568.9
237
1,947.6
-443
+324.0
+366.1
+501.2
852
-651
849
904
201
227
2,005.1
2,067.7
April
May
June
122.5
112.6
112.9
-122
-175
+249.9
+348.3
+354.4
2,358.8
2,410.8
2,489.4
749
976
1,078
195
217
217
2,108.9
2,062.5
July
August
September
113.3
113.8
1U.1
-165
+861
+250.7
+339.0
+234.4 :
2,455.4
2,451.6
2,534.2
805
826
1,059
201
199
200
2,204.7
2,112.6
2,299.8
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
114.5
1H.6
1H.7
-419
-18
+319.7
+299.8
+184.6
2,580.7
2,486.1
2,415.8
865
785
1,200
240
235
225
2,261.0
2,186.3
2,231.2
114.7
114.8
115.0
r-533
r-1,817
+360.4
+378.1
+348.5 i
2,615.9
2,607.3
2,551.4
891
833
905
234
196
252
2,255.5
2,229.2
2,202.9
2,135.0
April
May
June
115.3
115.6
r-553
r~832
U27.8
+407.0
+349.2
2,653.8
2,546.9
2,576,5
772
1,029
1,043
215
220
218
2,226.0
2,139.9
2,227.3
July
August
September
116.5
116.9
r~638
r+456
+376.1
+422.8
+434.2
2,584.1
2,547.9
2,642.7
875
841
905
219
230
231
2,208.0
2,125.1
2,208.5
October
November
117.5
Ilr7.8
r-1,851
r-1,205
+190.8
+316.5
+79.1
2,392.3
2,692.2
2,603.9
796
S7B
rl,085
258
234
255
2,201.5
2,375.7
2,524.8
+169.3
2,784.7
2,773.1
p860
(NA)
p235
(NA)
2,615.4
2,601.9
i:,6.o
1I:,7,1
December
us. 2
1968
January
February
March
118.6
119.0
+171.2
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by® Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
43
Table 2A
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
bed
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing-Continued
Major
Economic Process
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Minor
Economic Process
Federal Government Activities
Year
and
month
84. Federal
95. Federal
cash surplus O)
surplus {+)
1
or deficit (-), or deficit (-)
national income
and product
account
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
bil.dol.)
1966
January
February
March
H-2.2
-12.8
82. Federal
83. Federal
cash receipts cash payments
to the public
from the1
public
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
133*6
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
H6.4
92. Military
99. New
orders, defense prime contract
awards to
products
industries
U.S. business
firms and
institutions
101. National
defense purchases, current dollars
91. Defense
Department
obligations,
total
90. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Mil dot.)
(Mildol.)
(Bildol.)
5,100
5,179
5,879
1,639
1,736
1,904
;.40
6,444
5,44?
7,0»4
2,309
1,620
2,415
;.9i
?.6?
3,3<>9
3,061
3,724
55.1
?'.o4
3.38
(Mil.dol.)
2,940
2,850
2,913
April
May
June
43.2
July
August
September
-0.7
-9.9
H9.6
15^9
63.0
4,998
7,215
6,579
1,753
2,251
1,P66
3,50
3.1o
4.67
4,016
3,170
3,530
October
November
December
-3.3
-0.9
153.5
154.4
65.6
6,059
5,9H9
6,023
1,931
1,723
1,937
3.3L
2.7J
3.3(>
3,396
3,252
3,501
»i .7
156*. 7
155.0
70.2
6,518
6, '595
6,343
2,296
2,140
1,903
2.#3.3'<
3,33^
3,^49
2,9«4
6,211.
7,732
6,891
1,7-54
2,4^0
2,200
5,928
7,003
7,479
1,633
1,9;?.$
2,9'i«
3.64
7,449
6,56?
6,331
2,7'<5
2,lr/3
1,8/6
N.H9
3.06
7,033
2,360
(NA)
(NA)
1967
January
February
March
-n!9
April
May
June
-u!?
July
August
September
-13*.2
October
November
December
P-KV5
45.0
+i.'6
-19.'?
-18.0
KB. 4
134,1 i
isi'.o
155.2
H3.4
152.5
173 is
173.2
56.4
72.5
73.* 3
74.2
".31
3.2A
3.2Y
3.&
4.20
2. At
3.71
rj.97
2,920
4,121
3,626
3,610
3,686
3,665
1,665
3,308
3,479
1968
January
February
March
r'3,36
P3.90
2,887
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement Unadjusted series are indicated by (u). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Beginning with 2d quarter 1966, data reflect graduated withholding of personal income taxes and change in schedide for
depositing withheld and OASI taxes.
44
Table 2A
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
LATEST DATA FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Series Unclassified by Cyclical Timing and Economic Process
Major
Economic Process
UNCLASSIFIED INDICATORS
Minor
Economic Process
Unclassified Indicators
Year
and
month
850. Ratio,
output to
capacity,
manufacturing
851. Ratio,
inventories to
sales, manufacturing and
trade
852. Ratio,
unfilled orders
to shipments,
manufacturers'
durable goods
853. Ratio,
production of
business
equipment to
consumer goods
854. Ratio,
personal saving
to disposable
personal income
(Percent)
(Ratio)
(Ratio)
(1957-59 = 100)
(Ratio)
1966
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
1
October
November
December
'90 '.5
1.43;
1.45
1.42
3.21
3.28
3.25
119.1
119.7
9<X9
1.46
1.48
1.46
3.37
•3.40
3.50
90 ".6
1.48.
1.49
1.50
90.6
856. Ratio,
855. Ratio,
nonagricultural average earnings
job openings
of production
workers in
unfilled to
persons
manufacturing to
consumer prices
unemployed
.(1957-59 = 100)
(Ratio)
857. Vacancy
rate in total
rental housing®
(Percent)
0.053
0.13C
0.143
0.149
113.4
113.7
113.2
7.5
119.8
121.5
123.2
0.057
0.154
0.145
0.146
113.5
113.7
113.7
6^8
3.49
3.54
3.64
124.8
125.9
126.4
0.057
0.148
0.146
0.153
113.8
113.8
114.3
6»!a
1.52
1.54
1.54
3.67
3.67
3.62
125.4
125.9
126.1
0.066
0.149
0.152
0.141
114.1
114.0
113.9
7.0
p87.1
1.56
1.58
1.57
3.64
3.68
3.58
126.3
127.7
125.8
0.073
0.138
0.131
0.127
114.3
115.1
114.8
6. 6
:
117.9
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
:
p'34/9
1.58
1.57
1.55
3.73
3.69
3.74
124.7
124.7
123.4
0.067
0.123
0.119
0.115
114.9
114.9
115.2
6.*3
July
August
September . . .
|
pS4.'i
1.54
1.55
1.55
3.71
3.63
3.78
122.9
121.5
122.3
0.070
0.114
0.119
0.118
115.2
115.6
115.5
6*. 4
October
November
December ...
i
P84J3
rl.58
rl.55
1.52
3.88
3.70
1-3.64
119.6
r!22,3
r 120.0
0.075
0.108
0,118
0.119
115.3
115.8
116.2
5^6
pi. 53
(NA)
r3.52
p3.6l
rl2l.4
p 121.1
0.130
pO.122
11,7.4
p 117.0
1968
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September ...
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ® . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
45
Table 2B
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Major
Economic Process
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INDIES
Minor
Economic Process
Industrial Production Indexes
Year
and
month
bed
47. United
States, index
of industrial
production
123. Canada,
index of industrial production
122. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
121. OECD,1
European countries, index of
industrial production
126, France,
index of industrial production
125. West Germany, index of
industrial production
1,28. Japan, in- 127. Italy, index
dex o'1 industrial of industrial proproduction
duction
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59 -100)
(1957-59- 100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59 - 100)
(1957-59-100)
(1957-59 -100)
15 I
\ w,
161
163
163
132
131
134
153
153
156
147
150
152
158
157
161
252
251
2-37
188
IrtM
191
132
130
130
155
154
156
151
151
154
160
159
1.61
2il
2V>
2)7
188
W
1«M
155
155
2 '3
2*7
19'i
1966
January
February
March
1 54
April
May
June
1H
I1-)
1 56
164
163
163
July
August
September
1 57
158
158
163
164
166
132
131
130
155
154
156
156
158
154
156
October
November
December
Vi9
159
167
168
167
128
127
129
155
155
156
155
156
156
154
154
l f >3
zm
199
2M1
200
?oq
?04
129
129
129
155
155
159
156
v/.
1,66
166
166
IH
1.56
151
150
152
r;?«H
r;?f'r>
HU
20?
211
^09
V/:
I.'/*
1.68
168
155
154
156
V*3
152
1^6
150
151
151
r112
r'H7
212
211
156
130
128
129
r'Jf5
167
W
169
170
170
129
129
128
156
155
157
1<>6
156
rl,59
156
152
156
r121
:
!27
169
128
pi 74
158
1.60
pl65
rl59
160
161
159
160
pi 68
r-39
1.3C
P133
r;:4'^
:
p: 4^
23 fi
r217
p215
(NA)
(MA)
(NA)
pl62
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
160
1.S8
157
1^
157
TV/
lt.0
16;>
lul
pirn
vn
T
?' 9
:
r. i36
196
201
,n i
210
198
210
(NA)
April
May
June
July...
August.
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; "3", preliminary; "e", estimated;
"a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
1
Organication for Economic Cooperation and Development.
46
Table 2B
bed
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued
Ma|or
Economic Process
CONSUMER PRICE IKES
Minor
Economic Process
Year
and
month
Censumer Price
81. United States, 133. Canada,
index of consumer index of consumer
prices©
prices®
132. United King- 136. France,
index of consumer
dom, index of
consumer prices® prices®
135. West Germany, 138. Japan, index
index of consumer of consumer
prices ®
prices®
137. Italy, index
of consumer
prices®
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59=100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59- 100)
January
February
March
ill
113
114
114
124
124
125
137
138
120
121
121
146
112
112
147
148
133
133
133
April
May
June
112
113
113
115
115
116
126
127
127
138
139
138
122
122
122
150
148
149
133
134
134
July
August
September
113
114
114
116
116
117
127
127
127
139
139
139
122
122
122
149
148
150
134
134
134
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
114
115
115
117
117
117
128
128
129
140
140
140
122
122
123
151
150
151
134
135
136
115
115
115
117
117
118
129
129
129
141
141
142
123
123
123
153
154
137
138
138
April
May
June
115
116
116
119
119
120
130
130
130
142
142
142
124
124
124
154
153
152
138
138
139
July
August
September
116
117
117
121
121
121
130
130
129
142
143
143
124
123
123
152
153
156
139
139
140
October
November
December
1968
January
February
March
118
118
118
121
121
122
129
131
131
144
145
145
123
123
123
159
159
160
140
14C '
140
119
119
123
(NA)
132
(NA)
147
125
(NA)
161
161
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59 = 100)
1966
137
(NA)
154
:
140
(NA)
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and dp not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The T indicates revised; 'p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
47
Table 2B
BASIC DATA
MARCH 1968
LATEST DATA FOR INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Continued
Major
ic0fi@ftik £%©£§!§
fFQCIt FMICE INDEXES
ftfloner
E«©rak t%@c@ss
Stesk IPte Iflfais
Year
and
month
19. United States,
index of stock
prices, 500 common stocks ®
143. Canada,
index of stock
prices®
142. United Kin^
dom, index of
stock prices ©
146. France, index
of stock prices®
(19 57- 59 ==100)
(1957-59 = 100)
(1957-59= 100)
(1957-59-100)
145. West Germany, 148. Japan, index
index of stock
of stock prices ©
prices®
(1957-59 - 100)
(1957-59*100)
bed
147. Italy, index
of stock prices®
(1957-59 = 100)
1966
January
February
March
189
193
191
186
173
178
174
127
188
180
123
118
177
180
178
223
230
2£-
147
353
156
April
May
June
186
176
174
190
182
182
173
179
181
114
110
110
175
168
159
240
243
U4
143
U3
July
August
September . . ;
174
163
158
180
171
162
173
154
152
108
108
102
149
150
154
23:.
22<)
146
147
145
October
November
December
156
164
165
158
162
166
150
147
151
101
107
103
151
147
148
224
221
218
H9
147
144
January
February
March.
171
177
1B1
175
180
182
157
156
159
99
103
98
14&
156
159
223
220
228
142
HI
1?7
April
May
June
184
188
185
185
186
186
167
171
172
96
99
98
158
155
154
22.'J
1?9
132
130
July
August
September
189
192
176
177
187
94
99
110
156
175
182
23:.
194
189
194
198
October
November
December
194
188
193
192
188
189
196
203
200
109
106
103
182
193
164
189
177
pl73
202
208
107
rplll
p!13
•
23fc
230
1967
23:.
23:.
209
129
133
139
194
21 3
206
198
143
139
135
205
p20"
pi 34
pi 31
pi 32
192
2.1'i
1968
January
February
March
p!79
p206
219
p2l6
20 a
p207
April
May
June.,
July..
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown on the back cover. The V indicates revised; T, preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
48
Section TWO
ANALYTICAL
charts and tables
DIFFUSION INDEXES BASED ON HUNDREDS OF
COMPONENTS
Average workweek—27 industries
New orders—36 industries
Capital appropriations—17 industries
Profits—1,000 corporations
Sfode prices—77 industries
Industrial materials prices—13 materials
State unemployment claims—47 areas
Nonagricultural employment—30 industries
Production—24 industries
Wholesale prices—22 industries
Retail sales—23 fypes of sfores
Net sales—800 companies
New orders—400 companies
Cdr/oadings—79 commodity groups
Plant and equipment expenditures—78 industries
BASIC DATA AND DIRECTIONS OF CHANGE FOR COMPONENTS
OF DIFFUSION INDEXES
bed
Chart 2
MARCH 1968
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT
Indexes
9 - m o . span,—
01. Avg. workweek, prod, wkrs., mfg.~21 Indus.
06. New orders, dur. goods Indus.-36 Indus.
011. Newly approved capital appropriations-17 Indus., NICB |3-Q span— 1-Q span—)
034. Profits, FNCB of NY, percent reporting higher profits-about 1,000 mfg. corp. (1-Q span]
019. Stock prices, 500 common stocks- 77 indus.
023. Industrial materials prices-13 indus. mtls.
05. Initial claims, State unempL insur.-47 areas (inverted]
51
Chart 2
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1968
bed
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
Roughly Coincident Indexes
.) (Oct.)
P
T
Digitized for
52 FRASER
[Aug.]
T
(July) (Apr.)
P T
(lay) (F0b.j
P T
Peresnt
D41. Employees in nonagri. establishments-30 indus. (6-mo. span— 1-mo. span
)
047, Industrial production-24 indus. (6-mo. span— 1-mo. span
-)
D58. Wholesale prices, mfrd. goods-22 indus. (6-mo. span— 1-mo. span
)
D54. Sates of retail stores-23 types of stores (9-mo. span— 1-mo. span
for teds® series
-
Chart 2
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1968
DIFFUSION INDEXES FROM 1948 to PRESENT-Continued
g
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
INOV.] (Oct.)
P f
(May) (Fai
P T
Actual
AnticipatedD35. Net sates, all mfrs.-800 companies (4-Q span]
036. New orders, dur. goods mfrs.-400 companies (4-Q span)
D48. Change in total cascadings (mlions of cars-4-Q span)
D48. Change in total carloadings
(millions of cars - 4-Q span)
D61. New plant and equipment expend.«18 Indus. [1-Q span)
:v,
Data are centered within spans. Latest data are as follows:
Series number and
date of survey
Actual
D35.D36 (December 1967)
048 (December 1967}
D61 (February 1968)
4th Q 1966-4th Q 1967
1st Q1966-lstQ 1967
3d Q 1967-4th Q 1967
Anticipated
2d_gi967-2dQ1968
1st Q1967-lstQ 1968
4th Q1967-lstQ 1968
tfor tlaissa series aire stowim ©n
;53
Table 3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1968
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES
bed
Leading Indexes
Year
and
month
DL Average workweek, manufacturing
(21 industries)
1-month span
D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (36 industries) 1
1-month span
9-month span
9-month span
Oil. Newly approved capital appropriations,
NICB (17 industries)
1-quarter span
3-quarter span
1966
January
*
February
March
50.0
81.0
42.9
81.0
85.7
38.1
30.6
50.0
84.7
75.0
75.0
66.7
65
76
April
May
June
35.7
54. «
33.3
50.0
45.2
40.5
41.7
50.0
51.4
72.2
58.3
59.7
62
47
July
August
September
19.0
66.7
64.3
23. 8
0.0
9.5
50.0
59.7
37.5
55.6
44.4
41.7
;>P
47
October
November
December
35.7
3B.1
9.5
9.5
14.3
14.3
50.0
44.4
55.6
36.1
31.9
27.8
59
1'.
1967
January
February
March
69.0
4.8
61.9
9.5
9! 5
9.5
31.9
38.9
55.6
38.9
41.7
45.8
53
47
April
May
June
47.6
26.2
52.4
19.0
42.9
28. 6
50.0
58.3
61.1
66.7
47.1
58.8
53
•41
July
August
September
73. a
64.3
52.8
65.3
38.2
r82.4
r88.2
r76.5
53
pVi
71.4
76.2
r59.S
r33.3
October
November
December
2H.6
78.6
33.3
p69.0
55.9
64.7
r?6.5
p76.5
r/i
1968
January
February
March
rH.3
P92.9
r47.1
p50.0
April
May
juno
July...
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans; 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
pn the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of thi; 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used. Table 4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Based on 36 industries through August 1967 and on 34 industries thereafter.
54
bed
Table 3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1968
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Leading Indexes-Continued
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB
019. Index of stack prices, 500 common D23. Index of industrial materials prices
(about 1,000 corporastocks (77 industries)® r
(13 industrial materials)
tions)
Year
and
month
1-month span
1- quarter span
1966
January
February
March
59
61.5
76.9
46.2
53.8
61.5
61.5
38.3
44.7
83.0
91.5
74.5
44.7
30.8
42.3
46.2
-v,53.8
30.8
15.4
53.2
45.7
57.4
68.1
76.6
78.7
7.7
7.7
7.7
17.0
72.3
80.9
£0.9
34.0
34.0
0.0
0.0
o.o
36.2
46.8
27.7
23.4
17.0
46.8
61.5
26.9
25.3
88.3
59.7
47.4
58.4
66.2
19.2
30.8
57.7
90.9
92.2-;>£
61.0
85.7
90.3
97.4
46.2
53.8
23.1
0.0
15.4
26.9
55.3
17.0
46.8
27.7
8.5
8.5
46
76.0
74.0
51.3
93.4
92.1
86.2
23.1
61.5
69.2
30.8
23.1
23.1
55.3
54.3
55.3
31.9
44.7
29.8
52
81.6
77.6
57.2
68.4 •:
65.8
71.1
30.8
53.8
19.2
23.1
30.8
46.2
34.0
72.3
60.6
78. 7
78.7
66.0
59
32.2
7.9
71.1
52.6
46.2
46.2
61.5
38.5
30.S
38.3
74.5
46.8
80.9
54
48
^:
.
1968
January
February
March
37.7
9-month span
9.7
22.1
20.1 ;
October
November
December
October
November
December
;
1-month span
38.3
6.5
3.9
50
!
51.9
43.5
9-month span
11 .f :
July
August
September
1967
January
February
March
1-month span
63,6,4:1
3.9 23.4
59
July
August
September
74.0
48.7
14.3
April
May
June
April
May
June
:
9-month span
D5. Initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, week
including the 12th (47 areas)
64.5
10.5
2&&--.
6.5
0.0
2
46.2
46.2
53.8
•
3
25.5
80.9
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month and 9-month indexes are placed
on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2nd quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no
adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table 4 identifies the. components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary;
and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by (a).
^•Based on 77 components through June 1967 and on 76 components thereafter.
Average for March 20, 21, and 22.
2
55
Table 3
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1968
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
bed
Roughly Coincident indexes
Year
and
month
D4L Number of employees in
nonagri cultural establishments
(30 industries)
1-month span
6-month span
D47. Index of industrial production
(24 industries)
1-month span .
058. Index of wholesale prices
(22 manufacturing industries) ®
6-month span
1-month span
1966
January
February
March
88.3
95.0
95.0
91.7
83.3
70.8
70.8
91.7
95.8
91,7
79.2
79.5
75.0
April
May
June
80.0
75.0
93.3
81.7
81.7
73.3
72.9
62.5
75.0
July
August
September
5-6.7
73. 3
76.7
73.3
73.3
50.0
75.0
'43.8
October
November
December
1967
January
February
March
81 . 7
76. r>
70.0
85.0
65.0
65.0
7L/>
43.3
43,3
April
May
June
6-month span
D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)
1-month span
9-month span
72.7
88.6
95.5
93.2
76.1
65.2
60.9
82.6
84.8
78.3
75.0
79.2
66.7
70.5
86.4
75.0
95.5
95.5
86.4
43.5
30.4
95.7
78.3
82.6
78.3
75.0
66.7
66.7
72.7
54.5
47.7
72.7
72.7
63.6
47.8
47.8
60.9
76.1
65.2
82.6
72.9
56.2
50.0
66.7
45.8
33.3
63.6
63.6
54.5
63.6
72.7
72.7
43.5
69.6
41.3
87.0
78.3
82.6
55.0
41.7
43.3
25.0
25.0
39.6
41.7
29.2
25.0
77.3
72.7
56.8
63.6
68.2
65.9
87.0
43.5
69.6
91.3
95,7
40.0
7
41/
38.3
41.7
43.8
25.0
33.3
43.8
47.7
56.8
63.6
63.6
60.9
34.8
71 . r?
36.7
56.2
47.9
50.0
63.6
32.6
87.0
91.3
56.5
July
August
September
03.3
03.3
35.0
48.3
75.0
58.3
66.7
r73.3
58.3
66.7
41.7
63.6
65.9
75.0
72.7
81,8
81.8
43.5
60.9
76.1
r78.3
rS0.4
October
November
December
91. r;
r78.3
r75.0
p«3.3
r83.3
81.8
90.9
37.0
07.4
83.3
72.7
77.3
90.9
r37.5
p60.4
90.9
86.4
81.7
35.0
75.0
56.2
r75.0
r70.8
p66.7
.59.1
82.6
P95.7
r47.8
1968
January
February
March
r63.3
p7tf . 3
r69 , 6
p47.8
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising an dare centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on latest month, 6-month indexes are placed on the
4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires no adjustment. Table 4
identifies the components for the indexes shown. The V indicates revised; °p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series ara indicated by ®,
56
Table 3
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1968
LATEST DATA FOR DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
Actual and Anticipated Indexes
Year
and
month
D35. Net sales, manufactures
(800 companies)©
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (400 companies) ©.
D48. Freight carloadings(19 manufactured
commodity groups) ®
D61. New plant and equipment
expenditures (18 industries)
4-quarter span
4-quarter span
4- quarter span
1-quarter span
Actual
1966
January
February
March
Anticipated
Actual
*87
'91
*85-
84
'88
' 82
July
August
September
72
*84
October
i! November
December
*72
April .
May
June
1967
January
February
March
April
May
June
'
:
Anticipated
Change in
total (000)
5?'.9
- *83
52,6
*68
'82
42!!
78.9
-50
*84
*67
'so
(NA)
5^6
-91
70
*82
'65
*78
78*. 9
74
*ai
-70
*78
73.7
-91
(NA)
-36
82
80
October
November
December
'86
*84
April
May
June
Anticipated
*89
July
August
September
1968
January
February.
March
Actual
/
84.2
+21
78^9
-f-1
Actual
Anticipated
83.3
62.5
S3. 3
71.9
55.6
37.5
75.0
65.6
55.6
50.0
30.6
41.7
33.3
44.4
61.1
50.0
-131
63.9
P47.2
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising and are centered within spans: 4-quarter indexes are centered in the middle quarter; 1-quarter indexes are
placed in the 1st month of the 2d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used for series D61. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Unadjusted series are indicated by @.
57
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bcti
MARCH 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS
Basic Datg and Direction of Change
1967
1968
Diffusion index components
July
September
August
October
December1"
November
Februaryp
January
01. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURINGl
(Average weekly hours)
All manufacturing industries
4
Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
40.4
4
°
4
4
4
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures. . . . *
Textile mill products
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and related products
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
4
(74)
41 . 8 4
39,9
40.2 0
41 3 4
40.9 4
41.3 4
41.9
39 7
40.2
41 6
41.0
41.5
4
42.1
+'
4-o
-
40.3
41.4
41.0
39.2
4
4-
4
4 '
4
40.6
38.4
40.6
35.9
42.7
o
4 '
38.3
41 . 5
-i
4-*
40.6
38.4
4-
40.7 4
(64)
42. a
44
4
4- j
4
_
0;
„'
4 '
t
4-'
.1
i
;
40. 8
40.7
(71)
(29)
4 :
+ ;
+ i
42.4
40.5 o
40.7
4' ;
42.0
o :
+
41.0 4
41. 8
42.2
40.4
42.5
41.2
39.4
+ \
- :'
4- !
o '
4-
42.7
40.2 4
42.7
41.2
39.5
40.8
38.9
41.0
35.8
42.6
+
38.3
41.5
43.1
42.0
38.3
o
o '
- |
- ;
4 ;
t
t- '
4- i
4
4
-
40.8
(79)
4
44
i1
!
41. 9
41 . 2
40.5 4
*r40.2 4
40.7
40.7
(14)
H3)
(93)
r40.4
r3H.4
r39, ri
40.9
r41.6
r41.4
-,
i 40.5
+
o
41.6 4
41.4 4
41.'?
40.3
40.7
41 . 7
41.7
41.5
42,3
40.5
41.5
41.1
39/4
4
4
42.4 o
40.6
39.8 \ ,
41.1 o
39.6
42.4 _
40. 1, _
41.^ i
41.1 39.4 -
r41 . 7 -i
r40.0 •t
41 . 0
38.0 4
41.4
36.3
42.8 o
40.7
39.0
41.3
35.8
42.8
+
40. B
38.8
41.5 f
36.3
42.8 4
4^.7
r40 . 4 4 . 40.9
r37 . 8 ,
40.3
r30.P -.
41 . 3
r
r3 ).0 -i ; 36. S
42.6 1 , 42. H
38.3
41.5 o
42.4 4
41.9 o
3B.9
38.0
41.5
43.0
41.9
38.7
4
4
4
38.2
41.9
43.1
41.8
39.5
3r . n „
41 .8
4^.1 4
41.3 _
3^.4 „
41.7
40.5
40.4
41.8
41.3
41.4
,
4
o
+
4
4
o
4- :
42.1
36.8
41.6
36.2
41.1
_
„
_
i
_
_
-t
-*
;
j
39,9
; 40.2
42,4
4
i
; 41. H
41.7
-t
r40.4 o
r39,P -*
rU.9
37.7
r41.7
r42. Cj
41.2
37.6
•i
4-
42.1
40.2
42.4
40.4
39.^
18.1
42.0
41.9
41.4
38.9
i
i
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)
All durable goods industries
! 23,715
i
(53)
Primary metals
Blast furnaces, steel mills
Nonferrous metals
*
Iron and steel foundries
Other primary metals,
Fabricated metal products
Hardware, structural metal and wire products
Other fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Steam engines and turbines*.
Internal combustion engines*
3,646
1,994
4
'
(65)
3,470
1,794
4
'
(38)
23,381
4
23,545
4
4
3,7«3
2,091
4
4
..
...
-
...
^
4
4
...
X
4
>
429
4
4
59B
217
4
4
3,588
3,679
3,945
455 _ f
4^
309 - r
302
4
681
203
-
622
240
4
4
4
4
+
4
299
4
4
4
4
385
4
-1
_f
t
4
_
1
...
712
223
4
4
4
4
292
4
_
.. .
(NA)
*
...
4
4
P1,81M
289
-^
4}
(NA)
\
p291
4
4
313
4
3 K75
3,840
4^
4\
4
4
4
i
,2 oMo
2,^16
4,?8;?
(NA)
r3,911
4
4
298
302
...
4
4
668
327
4
(50)
^
4
4
4
3,564
4
2,334
2 246
+
4-
-
2,009
2 254
1 979
.. *
_
25,003
s
_
_
-t
4
(47
4,1^0
2, -94 _
-I
_
_
4
M 614 •i
26, /92
(76)
(65)
(56)
3,467
1,905
3,612
1,971
4
Construction, mining, and material handling*.
Metalworking machinery*
Miscellaneous equipment*
Machine shops.
Special industry machinery*
General industrial machinery*
Office and store machines*
Service industry machinery*
1
23,416
23,726
o
_f
(NA)
—
?"
4
p673
pl71
4
(NA)
(NA)
-t
^
•i
_
-t
<$3
^
p3 3?
4
^
.
t
_
_
_
(NA)
. *•
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) ~ unchanged, and (-) ~ falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r - revised.
machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by source agency.
a
Baaed on 34 components beginning September 1967.
Digitized for 58
FRASER
Table 4
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1967
1968
Diffusion index components
July
September
August
October
December
November
January
February
D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1-Continued
(Millions of dollars)
I 3,579
733
Electrical machinery
Electrical transmission, distr, equipment*
Electrical industrial apparatus*
'i' 3,6^0
79
\
™/
-i
J
+]
Radio and TV
Communication equipment!
Electronic components.
Other electrical machinery*
+ :;
+
4*
-i
889
^
\
3,554
~~\
/ ort
/
+*
+
804-
1
+1
>
+i
999
I 3,315
3,473
A*Q
659
...
-I
764
+-
...
r
~L
+1
r
r~) y
722
\
T^*Q
rooV
~L
+/
!
+
644
+•
]
5p3,447
1 r3,569
f
+
+
j\
-nOOQ
P?29
?!
4- 4- 'i
+ •:
+
+
+1
+ i!;
'•]
...
r736
+1
...
+ •:
p763
+
-
(NA)
TMfi'l
UNA;
...
(NA)
H-
...
:
!
Transportation equipment
Motor vehicle parts
Motor vehicle assembly operations
Complete aircraftt
Aircraft partsf
Shipbuilding and railroad equipment*
Other transportation equipment
•
6
\
697
+;
o'
4- '
4- !;
+ j:
. ..
. ,
4- =;
H- ;|
:;
5,950
.
+;
r6,522
;i r7,101
p6,533
NA :
NA
NA I1
:i
NA
NA
NA i
-f
+
...
_
+
...
+ ii
...
+
... + .i
...
... +
+ ,i
... _ •;
- •
+ !!
...
+ "
+ il
...
+ ;i
6 , 241
'• 6,019
NA i'
* . * NA "
+ '!
+'
NA
NA
+ •!
5,673
NA •;
NA:'
...
+
+
4
j
_;:;
—i
...
+ 1
...
...
-H
+*
t.
4-*
...
...
+
Lumber, total
Furniture total
Stone clay and glass total
Other durable goods total
...
+!
,
_J
+'i
+'••
— .i
fi
...
...
M
...
...
+ ii
+ ';
.* .
+
+
—
_
...
4 J
+ *
i
y
...
_ r
...
...
—L— ...... ,„.,«
D19. INDEX OF STOCK PRICES, 500 COMMON STOCKS2
(1941-43 = 10)
r
Index of 500 stock prices
i
93.01
+
+!1
(82)
Coal bituminous
Food composite
+ i
i
Textile products
Paper
Publishing
Chemicals
Drugs.
Oil composite
Riiildino matprial^ rnmnn^itp
Steel
11
I
Telephone companies
Electric companies
Natural gas distributors. ...
Retail stores composite. ...
Life insurance
+
:
95*66
95.31
_,
(32)
(57)
i
+
+ i
!
+
4- ,1
(8)
,
+
-f
+
+
-f
+ 1
+
+
- \
0
.^.
H-
. . 4
—
_
_
«-
•f
5
^.
.
„
_
—
4
...
4-
4- f
-
+i
i
+
* .. .
.. .
* .*
+
4,
4-
—
4,
. . *
. .t
. * «
H-
+
4.
+
+
-|«
+
4.
+
-f
+
(10)
4.
" l - j
+
...
+
+
+
+
—F
- i 90.75
+
1
+
i
-f)
i
+
+ 1
(71)
,
—i
it
95.04
(64)
95.30
+
- ,1
t
1
J
,
92.66
i
.
+ h
+
+
-f-
Mptal fahrir^tino
Machinery composite
Office and business equipment
Electric household appliances
Electronics
Automobi les
Radio and television broadcasters
.Ii
94-49
(78)
4
+
—
* • *
_
_
...
.
* ..
4.
_
+
4"
+
*. .
4.
...
. * •
w
+
4.
•f
+
_j-
+
+
_
„
_
+
—
...
•
+
_
+
4,
,
+
* ..
+
...
_
_
_.
.. .
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) - rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers areheld confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
*Denotes machinery and equipment industries that comprise series 24.
t These industries plus ordnance comprise series 99.
•"•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted. The components shown here include 18 of the more important industries and 5 composites
representing an additional 23 of the industries used in computing the diffusion index in table 4.
59
Table
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
MARCH 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1968
1967
Diffusion index components
July
August
October
September
November
January
December
March1
February
D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES*
Industrial materials price
index (1957-59-100)..
_
9B.3
_
98.1
_
97.8
_
97.7
4
99.1
4
100.1 -
99.2 -
99.5 4
100.1
(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components
Copper scrap (Ib.)
Lead scrap (lb.)«
Steel scrap (ton)
Tin(lb.)
Zinc(lb.)
Burlap (yd.)
Cotton (Ib.), 15-market average
Print cloth (yd.), average
Wool tops (Ib.)
Hides (Ib.i
Rosin (100 Ib.)
Rubber (Ib.)
Tallow(lb.)
4
4
•i
4
(31)
.366
.065
27,451
1.550
.HI
.145
.223
.193
1.646
.152
10. £72
.209
.050
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
(46)
(46)
(19)
(54)
.452
.382 +
.385
.385 4
.061
.062
.062
.064
28.756 4 29.774
27.195 4 30.174
1.510
1.486 4
1.528
1.456 4
.140
.140
.139
.141
.135
.133
.139
.134 4
4
4
4
.254
.237
.239
.231
.192 4
.193
.193
.193
1.588 4
1.591
1.523
1.603
.152
.159
.152 4
.153 4
10.938
10.971 o 10.971
10.949
.200
.171
.185
.195
.046
.050
.052
.049
4
+
4
4
4
4
4
4
(62)
.473
.060
29.723
1.547
.139
.132
.27:5
. 19'5
1.55.3.
.167
10.894
.177
.044
4
4
4
4
4
4
(46)
,494
,060
29,840
1,496
,139
,129
,264
.198
1 , 563
.164
10.839
.171
.045
4
4
4
4
4
4
(46)
.514
.061
30.078
1.469
.139
.127
.254
.199
1.591
.154
10.796
.167
.042
4
4
4
4
4
•f
(54)
.522
.062
25,862
1.500
.139
.125
.249
.198
1.648
.161
10.743
.174
.046
05. INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, STATE PROGRAMS3
(Thousands)
261
Avg. weekly initial claims ...
Northeast region:
Boston (6) .
Buffalo (20)
Newark (11)
Mew York (1)
Paterson (22)
Philadelphia (4)
Pittsburgh (9)
Providence (25)
North Central region:
Chicago (2)
Cincinnati (21)
Cleveland (10)
Columbus (26)
Detroit(5)
Indianapolis (23)
Kansas City (19)
Milwaukee (17)
Minneapolis (13)
St. Louis (8)
South region:
Atlanta (18)
Baltimore (12).
Dallas (15)
Houston (14)
West region:
Los Angeles (3)
Portland (24)
Sari Francisco (7)
Seattle (16)
4
4
215
4
(72)
(34)
Percent rising of 47 components
4
4
4
4
4
214
(26)
4
199
(81)
4
4
-f
44
4
4-
4
4
-f.
4
4
4
f
4-
4
+
4
-f
4
_
_
4
4
4
•I
4
i
4
4
_
4
4
-f.
4
4,
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
198 ~
(47)
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
201
(74)
4
-1
\
4
-f
4
4
4
i
209
(38)
+
4
4
-f
0
4
4
4
4
209
(61)
4
+
4
4
-f
+
4
4
4
4
-f
4
4
4
4
-
4
_
•f
4
4
_
4
4
4
4
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) ~ rising, (o) - = unchanged, and (-) ~ falling, Ortiy
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p -- preliminary, r - ^ revised.
1
Av©rage for March 20, 21, and 22.
Saries components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census.
The industrial materials price index is not seasonally adjusted. Directions of change are computed before figures are rounded.
3
The signs are reversed because this series usually rises when general business activity falls and falls when business rises:
(-) = rising, (o) - unchanged, and (+) ~ falling.
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of the Census before
the direction of change is determined.
Data used are for the week including the 12th of the month.
Directions of change are
shown separately for only the 26 largest labor market areas. Th© number following the area designation indicates its eise rank.
2
Digitized for60
FRASER
bed
Table 4
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1967
1968
Diffusion index components
July
October
September
August
December1"
November
January
February?
D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN NONAGRICULTURAL ESTABLISHMENTS1
(Thousands of employees).
All nonagricultural establishments
I +
65,939 4-
Percent rising of 30 components .......... \
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
,
Furniture and fixtures
Stone, clay, and glass products . . ,
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery
Electrical equipment
„
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
Food and kindred products
<
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
,
Apparel and related products
Paper and allied products.
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products..,,.
Petroleum and related products . . ,
Rubber and plastic products
Leather and leather products
pining
Contract construction
,
Transportation and public utilities ,
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
,
Finance; insurance, real estate
Service and miscellaneous
Federal government
State and local government
(58)
(53)
!l + ;
1
o!
i
_
\ _;
^ 4>
i 0
I
•1
i 4i
!
:
151
508
366
498
1,023
1,041
1,368
1,265
1,326
285
339
1,185
76
834
1,220
536
674
585
119
362
295
44- !
+
o
o
623
3,231
4,292
3,555
10,092
3,234
10,074
2,759
4"
4.
4- I
ft
•O i
44- '
4 '
4-
+
+
+
4
+
+ i
4- ;
-f :
o
44_
n
4_f,
4-
o
4
+
8,910 4-
66,055 +
66,190'
:
66,243
;
154 +
508 +
370 +
4494 4
i 1,003 4_ ;
1,023 +
_ •
1,365 „
_
1,260 4l, 410 ; i , 297
281 4
285^ -*•
336
33 7 '
157
513
374
500
1,009
1,024
1,329
1,270
1,289
283
335
1,148 472
839 +
1 , 223
534
673 _
585 o
118 4401 4299 +
1,185
•70
847
1,223
531
669
594
606
3,223
4,283
3,569
10,095
3,253
10,130
2,746
8,967
4-
4+
+
1,175
69
842
1,218
527
669
585
4-
120
407
300
+
601
3,238
4,262
3,565
10,154
3,264
10,161
2,715
8,953
4
4
4
+
O
+
4
4-
+
4444-
121
408
303 •
67,126 o
4
(78)
(92)
(75)
(35)
155:
509
369
497
1,024
1,048
1,375
1,290:
66,918
4
O
44+
+
4- 1
4~
44,
4*
44+ ;
+
444+
=
rl60
r522
4.
387
4
1,188
77
848
1,231
533
673
595
rl,179
1,190
78 _
72 r855 +
855 O
1,234 _
rl,221 4
r536 4
536 O
672
r671 4
597 + :
598 4
121 4- j
r!22
r414 4
414 o
r307 o
307 n
597 O
3,236 +
4,251 • 43,567 ' +
10,209 +
3,270 410,199 +
2,712
9,033 4-
597
3,289
4,287
3,602
10,298
3,290
10,297
2,698
9,138
•+
4
4
4
f+
O
4
4-
'
4
598
3,353
4,290
3,598
10,272
3,304
10,332
2,708
9,180
4-
162.0
+
4+
_
_
t+
4
4
r513
rl,028
rl,058
rl,352
rl,294
r 1,409
r286
r344
67,69^
(78)
158 +
520 +
383 4514
1,030
1,058 0
1,336 41,293 +
1,398 4
286 0
337 4
4-
+
4-
157 +
515 +
377 4505 +
1,031
1,045 4_
1,372
1,289 41 3804
285 4
338
121
412
306
O
67,146
(63)
4
4
_
4
44_
162
526
391
485
1,029
1,066
1,351
1,303
1 420
287
343
1,172
71
865
1,234
537
675
601
121
421
307
4
596
r3,2l6
r4,301
r3,607
rlO,312
r3,310
4
no, 369
4
4
r2,721
r9,213
4
4
600
3,467
4,317
3,626
10,390
3,321
10, 4H
2,724
9,268
161,2
4-
161.3
+
44
4-
+
44+
+
4
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1957-59-100)
All industrial production
+
156 6
Durable goods:
Primary and fabricated metals..
Primary metal products
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and related products
Machinery, except electrical
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Clay, glass, and lumber
Clay glass and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous
4-
(53)
Percent rising of 24 components
+;
129.6
159.8
4•+
;+
4*
-t-
_i
_ •
:
:
156 8 +
158,1
(42)
(67)
_
182.2
177.1
170*8
182 9
+
4-
134.1
115.5
4-
162.7
155.4
+
_
44
(56)
129.3
159.1 _
129.2 +
4158*1
182.6
183.2
171*9
183*2
—_
_
-
182.1
182,4
159.2
183.1
+
138,4
114.3
4-
166.3
156.4
4-
136.9
109.2
164.8
154,9
444-
156*9 +
_
40
4-
4
159.5
(83)
131.7 +
158.2 4- i
r!35.0
r!59.8
177.2 • 4- !!
182*8 +
:
159, 2 4183.2 4-
rl80.9
186.3
165.6
185.4
139.7
117.0 +
139.2
120.6
166.6 + '..
155.0 4-
167.8
155.1
(83)
4
4
_
4+
+
4+
+
(60)
(38)
140.7 _
162.5 +
r!37.6
rl6'3.6
179.5
185.8!
177.5
186.3
r!81.2
r!86.0
175.7
r!86.6
+ ;
4_
4-
143.6
r!25.7
_.
170.7
155.7
+
_ i
4-
r!40.6
pl!4.4
r!70.9
159.0
_
4
_
+
4^
137
165
180
186
176
185
„
_
126
134
(NA)
4
172
160
+
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) - rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p - preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Vhere actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising. Directions
of change for the most recent spans are computed before figures for the current month are rounded.
61
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
bed
MARCH 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change-Continued
1967
1968
Diffusion index components
July
August
October
September
November
January
December
February
D47. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1-Continued
(1957-59=100)
Nondurable goods:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products* ••
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and products
Printing and publishing.., . . . ,
Chemicals and products.
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
4.
+
*.
_
4
4
+
Foods beverages and tobacco
Foods and beverages
Minerals:
Coal
Crude oil and natural gas
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
+
4
4
p!42
r!42.9
r!52.0 . t>lA8,3
p!50.7
(NA)
(NA)
pl!5.0
136.8 4144.2 4.
103.0 -f.
138.7 +
146.4 +
106.5 4.
141.3 4146.8
108.4 +
144.9 +
146.2 4.
109.7 4
147.4 4
r!48.6 4
rl!3.'-i 4
149.0 4
148.3 4
152.8 4
148.6
152.9
145.4
4
154.5 +
144.3 +
156.1 4_
145 . 5
r!57.0 _
r!44.1
U7.7 4
(NA)
r!42.8 +
p!49
(NA)
p!44
201,0
132.8 +
170.1 H-
200,7 +
133.2 4-
202.3 4137.0 -f
205 5 4137 6
199 1 4
r208 0 +
r!36 8 4
r207 c 4
4
r 21 0.6 4
r!38.3
p210 0
rl^S.S
p211.9
p!37.8
(NA)
p!99
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
131.5
123.6
131,7
121.4
131.2 4-
332 2 4118.0
rl33.5 4
115.5 +
rl^d 2
pl20,5
pl33.2
(NA)
115.5
112.3 4
126,1 •+
_
93.8
132.9 +
115.3 4_
126.4
11.6.1
124.6 4
110,8
125,8
93.2 4
139.0 -f
r95.7 4
rH2.7 -
P97.6
3135.3
122.6
129.1
119.7
133.7
+
•+
+
203 1
202 4
120.2
117.2 _
131.2
105.7
136.6 -
127.5 -
_
95.6
136.5 -
nz.3
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
O
4+
4*
p!32
(NA)
(NA)
pin
p!27
p!25
(NA)
(NA)
D58, INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES2
(1957-59-100)
All manufacturing industries
4
106.8
0
(66)
(64)
Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and other household durables
Nonmetatlic mineral products
Iron and steel
Nonferrous metals
4
+
+
+
+
+
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment...... +
o
Miscellaneous machinery
Electrical machinery and equipment . „
Motor vehicles and equipment
+
Miscellaneous products
Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
,
Wool products
Manmade fiber texti le products
Apparel
Pulp, paper, and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and rubber products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products
+
+
+
+
+
0
106.8 +
106.1
101.0
104.5
103.5
118.6
105.1
113.8
113.2
+
+
-f
•f
118.9 +
105.5 +
114.2 _
109.1
101.7
101.3
109.7
-f
113.1
98.9
103.3
85.5
107.1
104.1
98.3
103.3
95.8
115.2
Q
+
+
+
+
+
0
(75)
•+
•+
•+
+
105.3
100.9
104.2
103.4
107.1
+
+
+
+
107.1 +
107,3
101,7 +
104.9 +
103.9 -t
106.7
102.0
105.1
104.3
+
+
-f
+
107.6
102.1
105.3
104.7
+
+
o
+
120.7 +
105.7 +
+
122.7 +
105.9 +
114.1 +
114.7 +
123.7
106.1
114.4
115.2
+
+
+
+
110.4
101.6
104.0
110.6
+
+
o
+
110.8
102.3
104,0
110.7
109.4 +
101.6
101.3 +
110.0 -f
109.7 +
101.5 o
101.5 +
110.2 +
114.1
114.4
109.9
101.5
103.7
110,5
112.1
98.8
102.9
85.9
107.3
104.0
98,0
104.6
97.8
114.4
112.7
99.2
102.7 +
86.3 +
107.4 H-
111.7
99.1 -f
102.8
86.9 +
107.5 H-
104.1
97.9
103.9
98.2
114.4
104.3
98,2
101. D
98.8
114.8
+
+
0
+
•f-
4-f
0
+
0
+
+
+
( a)
108.7
101.2 +
104.7 +
104.0 _
113.6 +
-f
+
107.6
108.1
+
c
(77)
(73)
119.4
105.6
114.1
114.0
+
+
107.2 +
110.9 4
101.2 +
102.2 o
88.1 4
108.0 H104.6 '. 4
98.2 4
100.4
99.1 + ,
115.4 +
(86)
(91)
4
4
4
4
4
4
+
4
44
4
4-
108.6
103.0
106,0
105.5
125.1
106,2
114,7
115.4
108.7
44
44
+
4+
4-
112,0
102,7
104.3
111.0
4
4_
•f
O
4+
111.6
103.3
106.9
105.8
128.8
106,4
115,3
116,0
112,3
102.7
104.4
111.3
113,3
105,0
102,8
111.5
104.2
102.2
4
4-
112.4
105.2
102,3
88.6
4
89.3
4-
108.1
+
108.3
+
89,6
108. 8
104,8
f
_
105.2
•f
_
105.7
4
f
98,2
98,8
99,5
0
98,1
99.5
99,5
+>
116.5
4
116,7
98.4
99.9
99.2
116,0
4
„
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = = unchanged, and (-)»falling. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r - revised.
•'•Data are seasonally adjusted "by the source agency.
2
Data are not seasonally adjusted.
Digitized for62
FRASER
Table <
bed
ANALYTICAL MEASURES
MARCH 1968
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEXES AND COMPONENTS-Continued
Basic Data and Direction of Change—Continued
1967
1968
Diffusion index components
July
August
September
December1"
November
October
January
February P
D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES1
(Millions of dollars)
All retail sales
26,444
;
"26,422
Grocery stores
Other food stores
Eating and drinking places
0
4-
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise) . . 4Variety stores
Other general merchandise stores
Men's and boys1 wear stores
Women's apparel , accessory stores
Fami ly and other apparel stores
Shoe stores
5,500 +
5,516 +
+
2,071 +
2,305 +
4-
236
506 4-
4-
332
594
4
241
784
397
+
4-
222
4-
516
0
4* '
26,089
(76)
(37)
5,535
5,543
4>
2,110
2,354
239
516
-
+
771
260
2,104
2,321
250
508
_
4-
316
+
903
5 BO
340
605
...«\
4-
250
781
44,
424
767
258
4-
322
607
4*
1
4-
+
+
4-
_
2,133
2,371
239
533
44-
-t-
4-
5,666
+
2,144
4
2,367
_
O
4,891
322
+
333
+
2,028
+
901
4_
+
324
578
+
+
423
786
252
249
4-
i
4,
_
+
_ •
231
529
-
599
;
'
+
+
4_
_
_
346
4
! 2,015
4,
912
600
...
4*
4-
I
4- i
4,
_
782
_
454
774
247
4-
'i
304 4559 +
* » . 4246 + ;:
778 + :
463
B39 _
249 4
44-
_
4-
4,361
P5,716
p2,!89
p2,358
p241
p520
4
4- i
254
771
r 27, 039
(70)
4-
(48)
4-
+
4
913
597
307
575
~
_
257
812
450
789
252
4,731
2,003
+
5,584:
4-
26,470
4-
-j.
+
4,814
26,411
(67)
4-
O
4-
4-
2,0.20
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Other nondurable-goods stores . •
+
4-
Household appliance TV radio stores
4Lumber yards building materials dealers
O
Hardware stores
Farm equipment dealers
*• .
4Passenger car and other automotive dealers. *
Tire battery accessory dealers
..••
*
2,094
2,341
26,732
4-
+
Jewelry stores* •
+
(61)
(44)
4,331
4,355
323
+
4-
I 2,017
+
4-
361
:
2,064
928
601
4.
949 +
586 4-
_
-
+
4-
_
(NA)
_
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
+
4-
4
4-
=
...
'
i.
(NA)
(NA)
0
t-
P779 +
(NA)
(NA)
p463.
.
p815
4-
. (NA)
—
_
(NA)
0
(NA)
(NA)
p270
p4,556
P343
p2,091
p960
p633
*
-
+
(48)
4-
P334
P573
•*•
p265
27,433
4-
•
+
,
^
_
(NA)
. .»
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
"~
_
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with-the numbers: (+)= rising, (o) = unchanged and (-) = fall ing. Only
the directions of change are shown when numbers are held confidential by the source agency. NA = not available, p = preliminary, r = revised.
1
Data are. seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
63
Appendix A.-BUSINESS CYCLE EXPANSIONS AND CONTRACTIONS IN THE UNITED STATES: 1854 TO 1961
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak)
Business cycle reference dates
Trough
Cycle
Expansion
(trough to
peak)
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak from
previous
peak
Peak
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
June 1857
.October 1860
.April 1865
June 1869
.October 1873
".March 1882
May 1885
April 1888
May.1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
(x)
18
8
32
15
65
*30
22
46
.March 1887
July 1890
January 1893
.December 1895
June 1899.
.September 1902
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
.May 1907 •
January 1910
January 1913
.August 1918
January 1920
.May 1923
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938. .
October 1945
October 1949
34
36
(x)
48
30
78
36
99
40
54
50
52
101
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
23
13
24
23
7
15
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
•October 1926
.August 1929
.May 1937
.February 1945
.November 1948
July 1953
14
13
43
13
8
11
27
21
50
80
37
45
36
40
64
63
88
^8
41
34
93
93
Z5
56
July 1957
13
"9
9
35
25
(X)
58
44
34
48
34
(X)
Average, all cycles:
26 cycles, 1854-1961 .
10 cycles 1919-1961 .
4 cycles, 1945-1961..
19
15
10
30
35
36
49
50
46
Average, peacetime cycles
22 cycles, 1854-1961 ,
8 cycles, 1919-1961 . .
3 cycles, 1945-1961..
20
16
10
26
28
32
45
45
42
,
August 1954
April 1958
February 1961.
••
.May 1960
13
(x)
149
54
46
2
3
*46
48
42
5
6
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars Iand .11, and Korean War), the postwar contractions,and
the full cycles that include.the wartime expansions.
1
25
2
cycles, 1857-1960.
9 cycles, 1920-1960.
3
4
4
cycles, 1945-1960.
21 cycles, 1857-1960.
5
7
6
cycles, 1920-1960.
3 cycles, 1945-1960.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
65
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS
Specific trough dates for reference expansions beginning in«
Selected series
Feb.
1961
Apr.
1958
Aug.
1954
Oct.
1949
June
1938
Mar.
1933
Nov.
1927
July
1924
July
1921
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
Dec.
manufacturing
30. Nonagricultural placements, ail industries. . . Jan.
Jan.
38 Index of net business formation
6 New orders durable goods industries ...... Jan.
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . . Mar.
29. New building permits, private housing units. . Dee.
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and
trade inventories
23 Industrial materials
prices
19. Stock prices, ,|(jOO common stocks
16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufacturing
113. Change in consumer installment debt
Dec.
Dec.
Oct.
IstQ
'60
'61
'61
'61
'61
'60
Apr.
Mar.
Apr.
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'58
'60
'60
'60
'61
Apr.
Apr.
Dec.
IstQ
'58 Nov.
'58 Feb.
'57 Sep.
'58 4thQ
Apr.
May
Mar.
Sep.
Mar.
Sep.
'54
' 54
'54
'53
'54
'53
Apr.
July
July
Juno
Apr.
Jan.
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'49
'53 Apr. '49
'54 June '49
'53 June '49
'53 2ndQ '49
Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 May
Apr. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54 Jan.
'49
'49
'38 June '32 Apr. '2S July '24 Feb. ',21
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(KA)
(KA)
(KA)
(NA)
(MA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) May ' 24 Jan. '11
Apr. '38 Mar. '33
(N1)
(HA)
(NA)
(NA)
(KA)
Dec. '37 Dee. '32 May ' 2? July "24 Doe . ' 20
Jan.
(MA)
(MA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
June '38 July '32 Aug. ' 28 Juno '24 July 'ai
'"(NBC) Oat. '23 Aug. 'si
Apr. '38 June ' 32
2ndQ '38 3rdQ '32 4thQ '27 3rdQ '24 2ndQ '31
Au|». '??
(NA)
Juno '24 Mar. '21
(NA)
(MA)
June '38 Mar. '33 Jan. '2tt
(NA)
June '38 May '33
(NSC)
IstQ '38 3rdQ '32
July '24 July '21
(M)
(NA)
(NSC) 4thQ '21
Dec. '37 Apr. '32
Feb. '38 Feb. '32
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments.
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (Q)
47.
52.
816
54.
Industrial production
Personal income
Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retai 1 stores
Feb. '61 May < 58 Aug. '54 Oct. '49
May ' 61 July '58 Sep. '54 Oct. '49
IstQ '61 IstQ '58 2ndQ ' 54 2ndQ '49
Feb. '61
(NSC)
Jan. '61
Apr. '61
Apr.
Feb.
Mar.
Mar.
'58
'58
'58
'58
Apr.
Apr.
Aug.
Jan.
'58
Oct. '54 Nov.
'54
'54
'54
'54
Oct. '49
July '49
Oct. '49
(NSC)
May '38
May '38^
(NA)
May '38
July '32 Nov. "27 July !'24 Apr. '21
Mar. '33 /*thQ."?6 2ndQ 2A 2ndQ '21
(NA)
(::IA)
(NA)
(HA)
(NSC)
(NJ3C) Mar. '22
Mar. '33
LAGGING INDICATORS
502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over ( inverted)
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q)
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (Q)
July '61 Aug.
2ndQ '61 3rdQ '58 IstQ '55
4thQ '49
Mar. '61 Aug.
'58
Oct. '54
Dee.
Sep. '61 June ' 59
Sep. '55
July '50
(NSC)
July '58 Oct. '54 Aug.
4thQ '61 2ndQ '58 IstQ '55
(NA)
'49
IstQ '50
(MA)
3rdQ '38 IstQ '33 4tfiQ '27
(NA)
'49
'49
(NA)
June '40
(NA)
July '33
3rdQ '24
(WA)
(m)
(NSC!)
(NSC)
(NA)
'38
(NA)
(m)
3rdQ '41
(NSC)
Fob. '28
Dee.
(WA)
Nov. ' ^ 4
(KA)
4thQ '21
(KA)
Apr. '22
(KA)
Sep. '22
NOTE: Specific trough dates are the actuaj dates when individual series reached a trough as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as
the trough of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent
business cycles.
NA^ Not available.
66
NSO No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
Appendix B.-SPECIFIC TROUGH AND PEAK DATES FOR SELECTED BUSINESS INDICATORS-Continued
Specific peak dates for reference contractions beginning inSelected series
May
1960
July
1957
July
1953
May
1937
Nov.
1948
Aug.
1929
Oct.
1926
May
1923
Jan.
1920
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries,. . .
38. Index of net business formation.
6. New orders durable goods industries
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment. . .
29. New building permits, private housing units. .
31. Change in book value,
manufacturing and
trade inventories 1
%.....
23 Industrial materials prices
19 Stock prices 500 common stocks
16 Corporate profits after taxes (Q)
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost,
manufscturing
*
113 Change in consumer installment debt
June
July
Apr.
Apr.
Sep.
Nov.
'59
'59
'59
'59
'59
'58
Nov.
Nov.
Mar.
Dec.
Nov.
Feb.
' 5 5 Mar. '53
'55 Feb. '53
'55 Sep. '52
'55 Jan. '53
'56 May ' 51
'55 Nov. '52
Dec.
Nov.
July
2ndQ
'59
'59
'59
'59
Apr,
Dec.
July
4thQ
-'56
'55
'56
'55
June '59
Aug. '59
Oct. '55
Mar. '55
Jan.
Feb.
Jan.
2ndQ
(NSC) Dec. '36 Oct. '29 Nov. '25 'Nov. '22
(NSC)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Apr. '46
(NSC) Nov. '25 Jan. '23
Aug. '48 Dec. '36
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
June ' 48
Oct. '47 Feb. '37 Feb. '28 July '25 Jan. '24
(NA)
(NA)
'53 July '46
'51 Jan. '48 Mar. '37 Mar. '29
'53 June ' 48 Feb. '37 Sep. '29
'53 2ndQ '48 4thQ '36 3rdQ '29
Jan. '51 June '48 Mar. '37 July '29
Dec. '52 Mar. '48 Mar. '36 May ' 29
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July '19
(NA)
'25
(NSC)
3rdQ '26
(NA)
(NA)
Mar. '23 Apr. '20
Mar. '23 July '19
(NA)
2ndQ '23
Sep. '26
(NA)
June '22
(NA)
Nov.
Feb. '20
(NA)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees in nonagricultural establishments, Apr. '60 Mar. '57 June '53 Sep. !'48 July '37 Aug. '29 Jan. '26 June '23 Jan. '20
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
Feb. '60 Mar. '57 June '53 Jan. 48 July '37
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted)
(NA)
(NSC)
(NSC)
IstQ '60 3rdQ '57 2ndQ '53 4thQ '48 3rdQ '37 3rdQ '29
50. GNP in 1958 dollars (0)
47.
52
816
54.
Industrial production
Personal income
<Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retail stores
Jan. '60
(NSC)
Jan. '60
Apr. '60
Feb.
Aug.
Feb.
Aug.
'57
'57
'57
'57
July
Oct.
July
Mar.
'53 July '48 May ' 37 July '29
'53 Oct. '48 June '37 Aug. '29
(NA)
(NA)
'53 Aug. '48
(NSC)
Sep. '37 Sep. '29
'-53
Mar. '27 May ' 23 Feb. '20
(NA)
2ndQ '26 IstQ '24
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC) July '20
(NSC)
LAGGING INDICATORS
502. Unemployment rate, persons unemployed
15 weeks and over ( inverted).
61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment (Q) • •
71. Book value, manufacturing and trade
inventories
62. Labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding
67. Bank rates on short-term business
loans (Q)
' 60 'Sep. '57
Oct. '53
Jan. '49
J2ndQ '60
3rdQ '57
3rdQ '53
4thQ '48
July '60
Sep. '57
Sep. '53 Feb. '49
May
Jan. '61 Mar. '58 Mar. '54
(NA)
3rdQ '37
(NA)
(NA)
2ndQ '29
(NA)
4thQ '26
(NA)
(NA)
Nov.
'48
Dec. '37
(NSC)
(NSC)
'48
Sep. '37
(NA)
(NA)
(NSC)
Sep. '57
July '53 Aug.
4thQ '59
4thQ '57
4thQ '53
2ndQ '49
(NSC)
Oct. '29
Oct. '26
(NA)-
(NA)
2ndQ '23
2ndQ '20
(NA)
Oct. '23 Nov.
(NA)
(NA)
'20
(NA)
Oct. '23 Feb. '21
NOTE: Specific peak dates are the actual dates when individual series reached a peak as distinguished from the reference dates which are those dates designated as.the
peak of business activity as a whole. This table shows, for the 25 indicators on the NBER "short list," the specific dates corresponding to reference dates in 9 recent business cycles.
NA= Not available.
NSC = No specific cycle corresponding to reference date.
67
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES
Part ^Average Percentage Changes
Average duration of run
(ADR)
W
Period
covered
Monthly series
Cl
T
c
T/C
for
MCD
span
MCD
Cl
1
C
MCD
MONTHLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
*1. Average workweek of production workers, mfg . . . .
Jan. (53-Sep. '67..
*30 Nonagricultural placements all industries
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan.'53-Sep. '67..
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
*
Jan, '53-Sep. '67..
3 Layoff rate manufacturing • *
*38. Index of net business formation
13. New business incorporations
*6 New orders durable goods industries
94. Construction contracts, value . .
*• Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan.'53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
.46
.40
.19
3
2.08
4.61
1.66
4.37
1.00
1.41
2.14
1.66
3.11
2
4.
.73
.95
.80
2.20
2.00
5.32
4.71
2.16
2.17
3
.75
9.38
8,57
3.23
2.66
1.09
2.35
.86
.62
.83
.69
.79
2.54
2.24
3.62
6.42
3.22
6.13
1.42
1.61
2.27
3.81
3
2
3
3
5
.81
.60
.55
.95
2.17
1.49
1.57
1.53
11.73
4.05
3.65
3.53
1.73
1.48
12.57
3.95
2.K
8.00
7.33
1.8,1
1.48
1.57
1.56
1.71
1.51
1.59
1.45
2. as
9.78
9.78
a. 38
a. so
9.26
a. 80
4.58
4.61
3.16
4.24
3.44
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
24. New orders, machinery and equipment industries - *
9. Construction contracts, commercial
and industrial, floor space
»
7. Private nonfarm housing starts
J an. '53-Sep. '67- Jan. '53-Sep. '67- •
4.58
4.06
4.27
3.65
1.39
1.50
3.07
2.43
4
3
.05
.85
1.80
1.89
1.63
1.61
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • •
Jan. '59-Sep. '67.-
8.47
7.24
8.38
6.97
1.05
1.48
7.96
4.71
6
5
(X)
.92
1.5S
1.63
1.47
1.51
13.34
8.67
3.00
2.78
*29 New building permits private housing
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
3.90
3.34
1.66
2.02
3
.66
1.93)
1.56
12.57
3.aa
Jan. '53-Sep. '67.-
6.46
5.38
2.83
1.90
3
.75
2.35
1.61
7.65
3.70
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
4.99
4.53
1.88
2.41
3
.75
1.8*
1.61
1,0.35
•3.37
Jan. '53-Sep. '67.,
7.42
5.73
4.04
1.42
2
.92
3.09
1.83
8.00
3.39
1.04
1.65
1.30
1.01
1.84
2
2
3
6
2
.92
.56
.03
2 . 55
3.ao
2.44
2.46
2.15
1.60
1.71
1,1.73
1.64
9.78
6.07
4.38
4.24
1.53
2,59
1.44
1.57
*23
*19.
*17.
14
39
Industrial materials prices
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing. ....
Liabilities of business failures*
Delinquency rate installment credit loans
1.32
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
2.46
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
.63
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan.'53-Sep. '67.. 19.62
Jan. '53-Oct. '67. . 2.67
.51
19.11
.79
.28
2.05
1.92
1.41
1.71
1.79
2.34
2.22
9.95
1.46
1
C)
.91
12.57
a. so
6.29
3.33
3.41
2.37
3.11
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
301 Nonagricultural job openings unfilled
46 Help-wanted advertising
511 Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
*41 Employees in nonagcicultural establishments
42. Total nonagricultural employment . . ^
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan, '53-Sep, '67. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67-
3.09
2.96
*43 Unemployment rate total
45. Average weekly insured unemployment
rate, State programs
40. Unemployment rate married males
Jan, '53-Sep. '67- .
3.77
3.00
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '54-Sep. '67. .
4.18
5.89
2.34
4.91
*47 Industrial production
*52 Personal income
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
*816 Manufacturing and trade sales.
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67-
•
.
2.08
1.45
2
.75
2.67
3.13
3.14
1
2
.75
.87
3.03
x.8i
a.3a
1.56
3.3^.
1.52
6 . 56
.70
.54
1
1
.70
.54
3.52
5,35
1-.64
l.M
11.73
25.14
3.32
5.33
.80
1
2
.80
.76
2.85
2.32 1
1.54
1.63
13.54
16.00
2.39
3.65
2
1
.93
.41
2. IS
1.59
1.59
14.67
5.66
ji,2 . 57
3.72
5.68
1.26
1
2
.84
.79
4.09
3.26
1.80
10.35
1.09
1.47
1.35
1.73
2
3
2
3
.71
.68
.94
.82
2.59
2.67
2.79
2.63
1.71
1.76
1.93
11.56
.53
.75
.50
.77
.63
.57
1.35
.47
1.62
.89
.17
.20
6.42
1.75
1.65
2.49
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.
68
2.17
1.03
.83
1.44
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '59-Sep. '67Jan. '53-Sep. '67. •
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
.
:,.57
.30
.27
.20
.73
.48
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '53-Sep, '67..
114,
116.
115.
117.
*..8e
1.39
.73
.80
.52
.53
.74
.51
.26
1.00
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. .
.31
.14
.28
.76
.53
.11
.16
4.69
1.39
1.29
2.05
12.57
1
1
2
1
2
.97
.54
Jan. '53-Sep. '67Jan.'53-Sep. '67..
*54. Sales of retail stores ........
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
55. Wholesale prices, industrial
commodities
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods
Treasury bill rate
Corporate bond yields.
Treasury bond yields
Municipal bond yields
.43
.31
.35
.73
.80
1.28
.13
.12
4.32
.94
.96
1.18
.41
.$4
2.74 '
2. 96'
2.75
,7*
U48
U54
1.53
11.73
19.56
29.33
3.74
2.90
5.00
4.89
3.89
1.52
a. oo
3.98
3.. 66
3. .89
7.65
9.26
6.52
7.65
7.65
5.03
3.98
4.09
4.49
3/72
4.08
3.89
4.05
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part L-Average Percentage Changes-Continued
Average duration of run
(ADR)
7/C
Period
covered
Monthly series
El
1
c
7/c
for
MCD
span
MCD
Cl
1
C
MCD
MONTHLY SERIES-Continued
LAGGING INDICATORS
*502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Jan, '53-Sep. '67..
505. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories . . Jan.
. '53-Sep. '67. .
65. Book value, manufacturers* inventories,
of finished goods.
Jan. '53-Sep, '67..
*62. Labor cost per unit of output manufacturing
66. Consumer installment debt
*72.. Commercial and indus. loans outstanding, weekly
-reporting large commercial banks
118 Mortgage yields residential
6.26
5.03
1.77
1.43
3.98
1.26
2
.63
•4.09
1.56
6.77
5.65
1.57
.80
.52
.18
.49,
.37
2
1
.37
1.89
6.77
1.48
1.59
17.60
25.14
3.13
6.77
.62
.29
.55
.53
1
.53
3.59
1.43
16.00
3.59
Jan, '53-Sep. '67 . .
Jan,'53-Sep.'67..
.59
.82
.46
.10
.32
.80
.13
2
1
.89
.13
2.48
13.54
1.64
1.64
6.07
25.14
4.07
13.54
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
July'61-Sep. '67.*
.97
.56
.50
.21
.82
.48
.62
.43
1
1
.62
.43
3.67
10.57
1.52
2.00
25.14
6.73
3.67
10.57
.12
.15
.90
.78
1
4
.78
.90
4.19
1.82
1.64
1.62
10.35
11.80
4.19
3.41
C1)
.92
.73
(X)
(X)
7.98
6
4
4
6
6
6
6
C 11 )
C )
1.44
1.60
1.79
1.44
1.43
1.56
1.48
1.37
1.51
1.62
1.47
1.46
1.48
1.43
11.80
9.14
11.80
8.50
9.33
8.80
9.78
2.35
2.84
3.48
2.06
1.96
2.44
2.59
1.84
1.84
2
3
.95
.72
2.84
2.05
1.54
1.57
8.80
11.00
4.61
4.35
.93
1
.93
2.84
1.63
9.26
2.84
.80
1
.80
3.26
1.52
8.38
3.26
1.67
2
.92
2.38-
1.60
19.56
3.72
1.21
2.63
1.58
1.71
2.20
.56
.94
.75
.87
.63
.95
.98
*.29
2.38
3.45
3.45
2.29
3.59
2.79
1.41
1.45
1.44
1.48
1,48
1.39
1.66
10.35
8.80
25.14
16.00
16.00
13.54
29.33
6.48
4.14
6.25
9.21
4.97
3.59
4.07
.91
1.44
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
81. Consumer prices
86. Exports, excluding military aid3.
861. Export orders, durables except motor vehicles
and parts
,
862. Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
87 General imports^
,
91. Defense Department obligations total
90. Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
99. New orders defense products industries
92. Military contract awards in U.S.
Jan, '53-Sep. '67..
Jan,'53-0ct. ' 6 7 - .
.19
3.58
Oct. '62-Sep. '67 . . 12.55
Jan. '57-Sep. '67 • • 6.44
Jan. '53-Oct. '67 •• 2.87
July '53-Sep. '67.. 13.58
Jan, '56-Sep. '67* • 26.22
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 . . 21.39
, Jan, '53-Sep. '67 •• 20.91
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
AND ECONOMIC PROCESS
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods..
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods
855. Ratio, nonagricultural job openings unfilled to
number of persons unemployed.
856. Ratio, average hourly earnings of production
workers in manufacturing to consumer prices. ....
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
.99
2.04
Jan, '53-Sep. '67..
.93
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- .
5.. 54
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- -
.36
3.36
12.43
6.23
2.69
13.32
26.08
21.27
20.82
.85
1.77
.60
3.33
.30
1.22
1.75
.87
1.37
2.00
1.74
2.61
.46
.96
.65
4.15
.18
3.74
10.17
3.55
3.09
9.74
13.04
12.25
•
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
123.
122.
121.
126.
125
178.
127
Canada, industrial production
United Kingdom, industrial production
OECD European countries, industrial production. .
France, industrial production. . . «
West Germany industrial production
Japan, industrial production, . . . <>
Italy industrial production. . . . . „
133.
132.
136.
135.
138.
137.
Canada, consumer prices
,
United Kingdom, consumer prices.,
France, consumer prices
„
West Germany, consumer prices . „
Japan, consumer prices
Italy, consumer prices
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep. '67..
Jan. '53-Sep, '67. .
Jan. '53- Sep. '67. .
Jan.'53-Sep. '67..
143. Canada, stock prices
„
142 United Kingdom stock prices • • «
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • Jan. '53-Sep. '67-.
Jan. '53-Sep. '67.Jan. '53-Sep. '67 ••
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 • Jan. '53-Sep. '67-
148 Japan stock prices. ...........*..
147. Italy, stock prices
Jan. '53-Sep. '67 ••
Jan, '53-Sep. '67- . Jan. '53-Sep. '67- - .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- J an,1 53-Sep. '67- •
Jan. '53-Sep. '67Jan. '53-Sep, '67- •
.81
1.04
.82
1.19
1.44
1.69
1.43
.25
.45
.52
.32
.81
.33
2.77
3.13
4.00
3.34
3.60
3.78
.67
.98
.74
1.07
1.32
1.17
1.28
.31
.49
.44
.36
.74
.35
2.13
2.49
3.35
2.03
2.44
3.00
.55
.37
.47
.62
.60
.72
1.78
2
3
2
2
3
1
2
.19
.27
.39
.22
.38
.31
1.66
1.82
1.14
1.65
1.95
1.14
2
3
2
3
3
2
.93
9.26
.73
6.29
.59
7.04
.75
8.00
.69
3.09
.61 19.56
2.00
1.68
1.54
1.98
1.64
1.80
11.00
14.67
8.80
11.73
10.35
8.38
12.50
8.70
7.61
11.60
6.96
25.00
1.33
1.48
1.79
2
2
3
1
2
3
.87
.90
.66
.86
.64
.72
3.26
2.63
2.48
3.52
3.26
2.44
1.78
1.71
1.68
1.85
1.68
1.85
11.00
8.00
7.33
7.33
7.-04
8.80
3.98
3.72
4.14
3.52
4.49
5.12
1.23
1.61
1.68
1.87
2.37
2.29
1.89
.95
.86
1.07
1.59
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 1.
69
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part l.-Average Percentage
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Cl
Changes-Continued
1
I/C
C
QCD
I/C
for
QCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
a [ . To
QCD
QUARTERLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing
*16. Corporate profits after taxes
22. Ratio, profits to income originating,
corporate, all industries
18. Profits per dollar of sales, manufacturing
110. Total private borrowing
IQ'53-IIIQ'67.....
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
9.31
4.62
.67
.69
l
l
.67
.69
3.05
3,05
3.41
2 . 77
6.89
3.99
1,29
5 . 16
1i, # <gP9
,
3
'£•
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
4.08
5.59
2.95
3.67
8.16
.86
.93
.76
1
l
l
.86
.93
.76
2,52
2.64
2,23
1.26
1.32
1.29
5.27
3.B7
3.62
2.5,3
10.95
2.54
3.41
6.17
GNP in current dollars
IQ'53-IIIQ ( 67
GNP in 1958 dollars
|IQ'53-IIIQ'67
Final sales
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing. !IQ'53-IIIQ'67
1.54
1.23
1.40
5.36
.34
.33
.32
.84
1.46
1.11
1.37
5.21
.23
.30
.24
.16
l
l
1
l
.23
.30
.24
.16
6.44
3,41
1,3.';
8.29
6.44
6.44
3.41
IQ'53-IIIQf67
3.13
.74
2.91
.26
1
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
2.23
1.02
2.05
.58
.50
83. Federal cash receipts from public
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
82. Federal cash payments to public
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
101. National defense purchases, current dollars .... IQ'53-IIIQ'67
3.01
3.75
1.73
2.91
2.39
2.15
.73
9 .1*3
&
3j
» AP
Ofc
1 * QQ
X
yy
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
AND ECONOMIC PROCESS
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable
personal income
857, Vacancy rate in total rental housing
2.18
.85
1.77
3. Of)f
j?i• \jnj j
/. « ft 3
O=?
2.64
2.23
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
49.
*50.
57.
97.
4.14
1.29
1.18
1,32 1
.26
5, gO
1.41
'ii.80
5.80
l
1
.58
.50
3.05
2,64
1.23
1.49
4.46
3.62
3.0 f )
1
2
.73
.52
2,32
1.76
1.2<*
3.41
1.23
<>.46
'-if* . £t*3
O3
2.32
2.71
11,60
11.60
/j.00
11.60
4.U
LAGGING INDICATORS
*61. Business expenditures, new plant and
equipment
68, Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross product
(1958 dol.), nonfinancial corporations
*67, Bank rates on short-term business loans
.88
.42
.72
2.64
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
IQ'53-IIIQ'67
(
IQ 53-IIIQ'67
IQ'56-IIIQ'67
8.50
3.78
6.66
2.21
4.57
2-47
1.36
. /i
*+ j.
.48
1.46
.90
T
J,
A>
2 ,. f?A
<1
O^
-L *
(iJ>
1
.48
2,90
1,41
2
1
.52
.90
1.57
2 ,,09
f\
ft *'
(S, • 1^
3.87
2.90
1 . 29 3.o2
3.17
1.44
2. 02
3.29
*Series
ineludad in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators.
^ot shown for series when MOD is "6" or3 more.
2
Bimonthly series; average percentage changes, MOD and average durations of run are for bimonthly spans.
Moaa\iro
on data adjusted for abnormalities during the periods December 1962-March 1963 and December 1964-May 1965 d;ie to effects of
strikes.
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1
The following are brief definitions of the measures shown
in part 1 of this table. More complete explanations appear in
Electronic Computers and Business Indicators, by Julius
Shiskin, issued as Occasional Paper 57 by the National Bureau
of Economic Research, 1957 (reprinted from Journal of
Business^ October 1957).
"CI" is the average month-to-month (or quarter-toquarter) percentage change, without regard to sign, in the
seasonally adjusted series.
"I" is the same for the irregular component, obtained by
dividing the cyclical component into the seasonally adjusted
series.
"G" is the same for the cyclical component, a smooth,
flexible moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"MCD* (months for cyclical dominance) provides an estimate of the appropriate time span over which to observe
70
cyclical movements in a mommy series, It is small for smooth
series and large for irregular series. In deriving MCD, percentage changes are computed separately for the irregular
component and the cyclical component over 1-month spans
(Jan.-Feb., Feb.-Mar., etc.), 2-month spans (Jan.-Mar,, Feb.Apr., etc.), up to 12-month spans. Averages, without regard
to sign, are then computed for the changes over each sptin.
MCD is the shortest span in'months for which the average
percentage change (without regard to sign) in the cyclical
component is larger than the average percentage change
(without regard to sign) in the ilrregular component, and
remains so. Thus, it indicates the point at which fluctuations
in the seasonally adjusted series become dominated by
cyclical rather than irregular movements. All series with an
MCD greater than "5" are shown as "6*.
Similarly, "QGD" provides an estimate of the appropriate
time span over which to observe cyclical movements in
quarterly series. It is the shortest span (in quarters) for
which the average percentage change (without regard to sign)
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 1—Continued
in the cyclical component is larger than the average percentage change (without regard to sign) in the irregular
component, and remains so.
"T/C" is a measure of the relative smoothness (small values)
or irregularity (large values) of the seasonally adjusted series.
For monthly series, it is shown jFor^ 1 - month spans and for
spans of the period of MCD. When MCD is "6", noI/C ratio is
shown for the MCD period. For quarterly series, I/C is shown
for 1-quarter spans and QCD spans.
"Average Duration of Run" (ADR) is another measure of
smoothness and is equal to the average number of consecutive
monthly changes in the same direction in any series of observations. When there is no change between 2 months, a change
in the same direction as the preceding change is assumed. The
ADR is shown for the seasonally ad justed series CI, irregular
component I, cyclical component C, and the MCD curve. The
MCD curve is an unweighted moving average (with the number
of terms equal to MCD) of the seasonally ad justed series.
A comparison of these measures of ADR with the expected
ADR of a random series gives an indication of whether the
changes approximate those of a random series. Over 1-month
intervals in a random series, the expected value of the ADR is
1.5. The actual value of ADR falls between 1.36 and 1.75 about
95 percent of the time. Over 1-month intervals in a moving
average (MCD) of a random series, the expected value of ADR
is 2.0. For example, the ADR of CI is 1.73 for the series on
average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance
(series 5). This indicates that 1-month changes in the seasonally adjusted series, on the average, reverse sign about
as often as expected in a random series, The ADR measures
shown in the next two columns, 1.48 for I and 12.57 for C,
suggest that the seasonally adjusted series has been
successfully separated into an essentially random component
and a cyclical (nonrandom) component. Finally, ADR is 3.95
for the MCD moving average. This indicates that a 2-month
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series (2 months
being the MCD span) reverses direction, on the average,
about every 4 months. The increase in the ADR from 1.48
for CI to 3.95 for the MCD moving average indicates that,
for this series, month-to-month changes in the MCD moving
average usually reflect the underlying cyclical trend movements of the series, whereas the month-to-month changes in
the seasonally adjusted series usually do not.
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.-Average Unit Changes
™i"/^
I/C
Monthly series
Period
covered
Unit of
measure
CI
I
C
I/C
MCD
for
MCD
span
Average duration of run
(ADR)
CI
1
C
MCD
MONTHLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
*31. Change in book vajue, manufacturing
and trade inventories
Jan.'53-Sep. '67.
Ann. rate,
bil. doL
20. Change in book value of manufacturers'
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. . . . do. . .
inventories of materials supplies
25. Change in unfilled orders, dur. goods industries. Jan. 1'53-Sep. '67. Bil. dol. .
98. Change in money supply and time deposits .... Jan. 53-Sep. ''67- Ann. rate,
percent .
Jan. '53-Sep. '67. ... do. . .
85. Change in U.S. money supply
Jan. '55-Sep. '67. Ann. rate
33. Change in mortgage debt
bil. dol..
Jan.'53-Sep. '67 • ...do...
*113. Change in consumer installment debt
Aug. '59-Sep. '67. . . .do. . .
112. Change in business loans
3.79
3.67
.77
4.78
5
.96
1.53
1.45
6.29
2.65
1.51
1.45
(i)
6.52
8.00
2.95
3.44
.50
.47
.29
.13
5.04
3.63
6
5
.80
1.63
1.69
1.54
1.60
2.49
2.39
2.49
2.92
.33
.37
7.45
7.88
6
6
C 11 )
C )
1.47
1.44
1.40 11.00
1.42 11.00
2.85
2.85
1.34
1.26
3.43
2.64
9.78
3
3
6
.98
.90
(x)
1.49
1.64
1.56
1.35 10.13
1.48 11.00
1.56 10.78
2.94
3.16
3.83
1.61
2
.96
2.07
1.59
9.26
3.13
4
.86
1.62
1.57
9.32
3.55
.86
.78
2.77
2.72
.37
.30
.28
93.44
75.38
46.88
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
93. Free reserves
Jan. '53-Sep. '67- Mil. dol. .
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
88. Merchandise trade balance 2,
Jan. '53-Oct. '67.
. . . do. . . 57.74 55.59
15.55 •3.58
See footnotes and definitions of measures at end of part 2.
71
Appendix C.-AVERAGE CHANGES AND RELATED MEASURES FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES-Continued
Part 2.-Average Unit Changes-Continued
Period
covered
Quarterly series
Avcsrage duration of run
(ADR)
i/r
Unit of
measure
Cl
1
C
T/C
QCD
for
QCD
span
Cl
1
C
.49
1.76
1.33
4.46
3.00
f, f\f
3 • f\fOJ
a .r»'/,,
QCD
QUARTERLY SERIES
LEADING INDICATORS
21. Change in business inventories, all
industries
IQ'53-IIIQ'67... Ann. rate,
bil.dol..
2.59
1.69
1.50
1.12
2
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
89. U.S. balance of payments:
a Liquidity balance basis
b Official settlements basis • * *
lO'^-IIIO'fi?
lO'fiO-IIIO'fi? .
Mil dol . .in 9 A A 213 76
... do... 573 37 340.19
95. Fed. balance nat'l. income and product acct
IQ'53-IHQ'67 - •
84 Federal cash surplus or deficit
IQ'53-IIIQ'67 • -
Ann. rate,
bil. dot*.
...do...
2.61
4.53
1.36
3.30
1 QQ
Q£
1
rvj
4 sj 1•
•ap/ 1 1 i n<s
2.00
2.44
.68
1.35
AA
1
2
.68
,62
1
included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators,
Not shown for series when MCI) i
^Measures based on data adjusted for abnormalities during the periods December 1962-MareJi 1963 and
to affects of strikes.
*=»'•!
/A
I, . *gi)
1 ft1*
I f\c\
2.23 1.38
2.00 1.35
2 .q3U
n
3.62
2.76
a/yj
.U r
2.23
2.28
or more,
1964-Kay 196'j
BRIEF DEFINITIONS OF MEASURES SHOWN IN PART 2
The measures in part 2 are computed by an additive
method to avoid the distortion caused by zero and negative
data.
Thus, "Cl" is the average month-to-month (or quarterto-quarter) change in the seasonally adjusted series. This
average is computed without regard to sign and is expressed
in the same unit of measure as the series itself.
Digitized for72
FRASER
"C" is the same for the cyclical eomixment, which is a
moving average of the seasonally adjusted series.
"T* is the same for the irregular component, which is
determined by subtracting the cyclical component from the
seasonally adjusted series.
All other measures shown in part 2 have the same meaning
as in part 1.
Appendix D.--CURRENT ADIUSTMENT FACTORS FOR BUSINESS CYCLE SERIES (MAY 1967 TO JUNE 1968)
196)r
19 68
Series
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment
insurance
13. New business incorporations1
79.2 81.2 107 7 84.1 73.7
106.1 104.4 94.6 98.1 89.5
14 Liabilities of business failures
18 Profits per dollar of sales manufacturing2.
100 4 120 0
106.1
3D Nonagricultural placements all industries3"
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies 3
113 1 110.3
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies
reporting higher inventories
39. Delinquency rate, 30 days and over, total
installment loans 4
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement
+41
+256
104 5 101.1
94 4 119 5 102.9
96.7
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
84.3 101.9 138.5 145 8 112 7 96 0 94 9 79 3
95.7 87.3 96.5 118.7
99.4 108.6 105.3 106.1
85.2 81 8 101.5
100.3
100.7 113 6 116.3 113.9
June
80 9
97.3
89 6
98 2 110 1 99 6 97 3
97.9
105.4
119 8
88.7 103 4 111.7
106 8
96 6
79.4
84.1
83 5
-285
-388
+152
+34
-58
-129
+279
+36
+262
99.2 100.3
97.6
91.3
92 2
90.9 100.1 102 2 107.6 112.8 104 2
100 9
+38
98.8
98.8
92.1
+50
110.1
107.2
+13
92.6
91.8
99.4 101.1 99.6 99.5
65 1 100.9 103.6 100.4
101.8
204.0
91.8
91.8
151.9
188 0
100 2 100.2
119 9 103.2
99.6 99 2 99.4 99.6 99.8 100.6 100.1 99.4 100.3 100.1 99.9
99.7 112.4 111.9 105.7 94.6 80.7 84.1 85.5 95.3 108.4 119.2
100.4
102'. 5
856. Ratio, average earnings to consumer prices
100.3 100.0
99.6
98.9
99.9
99.7 100.1 100.4 100.4 100.4 100.1 100.2 100.3
99.9
86? Index of export orders nonelectrical machinery
D34 Profits manufacturing (FNCB) 6
100 4 100 8
94 4
94 4
94 3 103 9 100.2 100.3 103.8 102.1 107.4 100.6 100.3
100.2
99.9 100.7
100 2 203 6
99.0
64 0
98.8 100.1 99.2 99.9 101.5 99.2
98 4 108 7 98 7 79 0 101 . 6 75 6
91 Defense Department obligations total
9? Military contract awards in U S
91.9 151.6
90 1 184 2
98.6
94 4
96.9 107.0
90 7 111.5
11? Change in business loans 5
*
30] Nonagricultural job openings unfil led
-9
98.4 87.6
94.3 80 2
+6
98.1
91.5
91.5
93.0
-15
79.2
80 4
99.3
94.2
99.6
88.6
+17
NOTE: These data are not published by the source agency in seasonally adjusted form. Seasonal adjustments were made by the Bureau of the Census or the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. They are kept current by the Bureau of the Census. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be substituted whenever
they are published. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method
II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1
Factors are products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Seasonally adjusted data resulting from the application of these
combined factors may differ slightly from those obtained by separate applications of seasonal and trading-day factors due to
rounding.
2
Quarterly series; figures are placed in middle month of quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are to be subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly
totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. They were computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census
Method K seasonal adjustment program.
^Bimonthly series. Data are for even-numbered months (February, April, June, etc.).
5
Factors apply to monthly totals before month-to-month changes "are computed.
6
l-quarter diffusion index:
Figures are placed on the 1st month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed
and the factors, computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are
subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
73
Appendix E.-PERCENT CHANGE FOR SELECTED SERIES OVER CONTRACTION AND EXPANSION PERIODS OF BUSINESS CYCLES: 1920 TO 1961
1!;
43. Uneiiployment rate, total
Percent change: Reference peak to reference trough
Contractions:
Reference peak to
reference trough
Jan.
May
Oct.
Aug.
May
1920-July 1921
1923-July 1924
1926-Nov. 1927
1929-Mar. 1933
1937-June 1938
Feb
Nov
July
July
May
1945-Oct
1948-Oct
1953-Aug
1957- Apr
1960-Feb
19454
1949
1954 3
1958
1961
Median:6
All contractions
Excluding postwar contractions .
4 contractions since 1948
*41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
*47. Index
of industrial
production
*5Q. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q)1
(NA)
-31.6
-10,4
-31.6
-18.0
-5.9
-51.8
-31.7
(NA)
-0.3
+ 2.3
-28.0
-7.9
-5.1
-3.4
-4.0
-1.8
-5.7
-6.5
-3.7
(NA)
(NA)
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q)1
*52. Per- *816. Manufacturing
sonal
and trade
income
sales
*S4. Sales
of retail
stores
*41. Employees
in nonagri. establishments
-10.9
-3.4
-0.8
-1.8
-0.2
-4.0
-4.7
0.0
+0,2
+0.9
(NA)
-7.5
-7.2
-6.8
-3.1
+H.6
-0.5
-0.5
-2.4
-2.7
4?.'.
-2.8
-2.8
-1.3
-2.0
-2.4
+0.1
-7.0
-5.8
-7.0
-2.2
-2.6
-1 , 4
•»-3. :i
*a *|
+3,C>
3.9
4.0
-31.4
-8.5
-9.1
-14.1
-5.7
(NA)
-1.6
-2,2
-3.4
-1.4
-16.0
-16.0
-8.8
-1.9
-2.1
-1.9
July
July
Nov.
Mar
June
1921-May
1924-Qct
1927-Aug.
1933-May
1938-Feb.
1923
1926
1929
1937
19454
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+40.2
+45.9
+64,2
+30.4
+ 24.1
+119.9
+183.3
Oct
Oct
Aug
Apr
1945-Nov
1949-July
1954-July
1958-May
1948
1953s
1957
1960
+17.2
+17. 8
+8.9
+6.9
+21,9
+50.0
+19.7
+25.2
+17.5
+13.0
+35.2
+26.6
Median:6
All expansions
*• -»•
Excluding wartime expansions . .
4 exnansinns since 194S
+1 3.n
•4- 3V ft
(NA)
+12.4
+12.6
+42.1
(NA)
+3.3
+ 28.8
+11.8
+11.4
+12.3
+12.1
-m ft
**v
? t .o
?'\.:^
\ .0
-10.9
-a. 9
*50. GNP
in 1958
dollars
(Q) 1
" iV .u
-4.3
-1.9
0.0
-43.5
-17,3
-21.9
0.0
+0.9
*47. Index
of industrial
production
Rate at
peak
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
-19.7
-2.3
+0.4
'-49.6
-11.9
-so. a
49. GNP
in current
dollars
(Q) 1
+25.1
+14.7
+13.3
+73.9
+169.6
*52. Per- *816. Manufacturing
sonal
and trade
income
sales
+29.6
+13.2
+12.2
+76,3
+157.3
?.:)
\?.?
+?[>.<
3
•i.'U
f -• ^ , p
't4J
(1.0
3.3
7.9
6,0
7,4
6,9
•» 3 . ?
?.i
/ f)
-'1 .C
'* . I
*54. Sales
of retail
stores
Change
in rate,
trough
to peak
Rate at
trough
-10.3
-5?.J
-i . ; .
-2/1
3,3
'i . ^
( .11
V.4
+ 20.5
+16 . 0
^oq n
-3.7
-2.6
7.1
6.3
+50.0
+22.6
+16,2
+27,5
+20.9
+26.7
+29.6
+21.3
AOC; -3
CMA^
+19.4
A.l.
M
+63.8
+25.6
+ 20.3
+11.9
(NA)
+41.4
+22.1
+ 13.3
8p. 5
p.*j.4
ao,o
+15.7
+9.9
+3.6
+69.2
+10fi,4
+28.5
i;i,9
ij
3-,,
+3..1
3
u .;
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+34.9
+44.1
+ 22.4
+15.1
4=9« ft
?
?)
Rate at
trough
V .2
7,6
7, a
*43. Unemployment rate, total
Percent change: Reference trough to reference peak
Expansions;
Reference trough to
reference peak
Change
in ratu,
peak to
trough
*-i:'i
-o.^
?
2
f
>2
4' A
-14. ?
2fj.4
-lt\«i
?0.0
0
A
Rate aj
peak
C. ''-i
3,P
? 1
ll ^
3<2,
a 3
11 . ?
1,1
3
3.6
3,6
4, 3
3/i
3,3
3,7
^ a
NOTE: For series with a "months for cyclical dominance" (MCD)of T or "2" (series41,43,47,52,and816), the figure for the reference peak (trough) month is used as the
base. For series with an MOD of "3" or more (series 54), the average of the 3 months centered on the reference peak (trough) month is used as the base. The base
for quarterly series (series 49 and 50) is the reference peak (trough) quarter. See also MCD footnote to appendix C.
*Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list"of 25
indicators.
NA^Not available.
1
The most recent quarterly reference dates are as follows: 2d quarter 1958 (trough); 2d quarter I960 (poak); and lot quarter
1961 (trough). For earlier dates, see Business Cycle Indicators (NBER) vol. I, p.670.
2
Ba@ed on average for the calendar year.
3
D;lffers from figure for same date in expansion (contraction) part of table because of change in scries ursod,
^World War IX contraction or expansion period.
^Korean War contraction or expansion period.
6
The median is an average of the middle 2 or 3 items.
Source:
74
National, Bureau of Economic Keseareh, Inc.
Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data
are published in this appendix for: (a) new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, fb) series which have been revised recently, and CcV series which
have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published.
Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol@(indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
13. Number of new business incorporations
Sept.
Nov.
Oct.
Dec.
(Number)
1945 . . . .
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....
10,929
10,178
9,244
6,996
11,109
9,591
8,748
6,697
11,533
9,667
8,198
6,699
11,653
9,161
8,620
7,061
10,949
8,999
8,246
6,958
11,877
8,922,
8,066
6,849
4,393
11,987
9,041
7,928
6,983
4,768
10,612
8,950
7,728
7,187
5,692
10,270
9,205
7,452
7,384
6,979
10,799
9,609
7,267
7,475
7,999
9,866
9,486
7,288
7,676
8,807
10,198
9,553
7,001
7,703
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953
1954
8,027
7,155
7,023
7,956
8,445
8,143
6,937
7,067
8,361
8,982
8,053
7,082
7,455
8,624
9,223
8,053
7,021
7,742
8,885
9,600
8,378
6,858
7,760
8,968
9,280
8,359
6,743
7,819
8,421
9,196
7,816
6,766
7,549
8,703
9,700
7,580
6,838
7,876
8,319,
10,392
7,563
7,083
8,096
7,992
9,953
7,292
6,812
8,223
8,436
10,709
7,109
7,147
8,122
8,452
11,062
7,213
7,354
7,806
8,410
11,303
1955
1956
1957 . „ . .
1958
1959 ....
11,665
11,826
11,250
11,042
16,346
11,967
12,379
11,359
11,049
16,255
11,769
11,872
11,367
11,042
16,548
1
11,242
11,414
11,445 . 11,947
11,507
11,109
10,636
11,752
16,296
16,604
11,892
11,834
11,739
12,032
15,204
11,840
12,119
11,686
12,504
15,658
11,561
11,936
11,593
13,644
15,813
11,854
11,408
11,318
13,933
15,728
11,628
11,546
11,251
13,669
15,383
11,542
11,078
10,788
14,599
15,695
11,313
11,477
10,791
15,577
15,959
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
16,561
13,607
15,599
14,924
15,993
15,274
14,570
15,758
15,390
16,326
15,233
14,658
15,670
15,563
15,917
15,280
15,327
15,372
15,305
16,132
15,176
15,298
15,245
15,682
16,473
15,630
15,431
14,947
15,536
16,282
15,828
15,492
15,171
15,431
16,550
15,114
15,277
15,056
16,093
15,692
15,112
15,402
15,249
15,689
16,948
15,035
16,035
14,892
16,275
16,728
14, 264
16,149
14,951
15,759
16,804
14,097
15,881
14,985
15,867
17,021
1965 ....
1966 ....
16,784
18,087
16,854
17,451
17,131
17,266
16,664
17,057
16,580
16,644
17,017
16,577
16,844
16,074
16,901
16,343
17,136
15,764
16,994
16,233
17,606
16,206
17,629
16,583
...
14. Current liabilities of business failures (Millions of dollars)
5.82
4.33
15.04
13.79
20.38
1.49
2.84
12.36
26.14
28.13
3.53
4.02
13.86
14.57
30.99
0.95
3.67
15.61
14.85
31.00
2.26
3.73
17.68
14.09
25.08
3.37
3.17
19.98
13.08
30.28
3.62
3.40
20,50
14.61
22,95
1.22
3.96
15.52
21.66
31.49
2.10
6.18
12.70
22.26
22.15
3.11
6.40
21.32
22,42
21.33
1.31
9.80
16.85
26.54
24.78
1.45
15.00
22.37
31.11
18.87
28.13
23.06
27.88
22.63
28.73
22.61
16.34
19.87
23.31
40.83
23.25
14.71
24.36
27.75
51.14
20.63
16.56 •
28.67
26.98
41.68
23.13
23.98
21.62
31.23
36.66
19.43
24.48
32.38
41.61
20.57
22.20
23.99
41.06
33.23
18.64
26.69
16.48
32.06
36.61
16.40
28.65
21.66
38.00
40.88
14.87
26.55
31.29
40.30
31.52
20.50
19.10
20.39
40.00
38.12
20.63
19.02
22.94
42.07
38.56
36.77
41.64
52.49
60.22
68.75
35.95
42.04
55.91
59,36
53.26
36.79
38.05
49.85
66.26
60.23
35.26
41.05
55.98
73.67
63.08
33.06
57,05
50.05
54.09
48.96
36.67
43.01
51.45
64.00
51.25
33.55
50.20
45.67
69.55
54.47
40.48
61.84
48.89
50.76
54.50
37.21
44.17
51.03
54.04
61.51
37.80
54.35
51.55
52.52
55.98
46.50,
43.36
57.50
59.71
56.01
40.04
48.35
43.58
61.37
64.04
52.88
77.79
101.53
146.46
91.69
57.60
83.73
86.03
93.05
119.29
61.57
116.17
77.40
94.12
110.67
63.71
76.88
107.15
88.15
107.10
76.52
82.96
89.80
115.05
97.92
131.31
86.69
93.15
91.07
136.19
71.04 . 94.66
94.47
80.15
107.98
121.85
52.86
144.50
90.99
125.14
86.02
126.12
106.02
94.52
118.59
85,98
72.28
• 129.87
99.92
97.98
80.44
119.93
96.62
255.72
111.00
82.78
71.81
99.61
87.17
126.49
84.54
111.67
107.57
94.59
146.29
98.73
79.51
106.93
139.09
92.41
135.66
111.23
120.64
62.84
128,98
159.29
108.56
128.77
85.67
128.02
66.65
116.90
128.06
194.09
•
22.82
The series on this page contain no revisions; but, where available, data not previously shown for 1945
have been added.
through
(March
1947
1968)
75
Appendix F-H1STORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data
are published in this appendix for; (a) new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, (b) series which have been revised recently, and fcVseries which
have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published.
Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ©(indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title.
Year
Feb.
Jan.
Mar.
May
Apr.
June
Aug.
July
Oct.
Sept.
Dec.
Nov.
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (1941-43=10) ©
15.84
15.09
15.06
15.76
15.49
16.50
U.79
15.41
16.19v
1
*• B 9
17.04
14.69
",5.27
15.29
16.11
17.33
15.13
15.03
15.19
1,6. 54
18.43
22.89
19.87
25.36
19.83
25.18
24.39
30.73
19. OS
23.48
24.78
23.27
31.45
24.26
23.97
32. IS
22.71
,15.03
2/4.50
33.44
19.75
23.41
26.04
24. B3
34.97
42.69
48.78
48.51
45.98
59,74
42.43
48.49
45.84
47.70
59.40
44.34
46.84
43.98
48.96
57.05
42. 3 1
46.24
4-1.24
50.95
5 f ?.OC
44.95
45.76
40.35
52.50
§7.23
45.37
46.44
40'. 33
53.49
59.06
57.26
65.62
55.63
70.11
80.24
55,84
65*44
S&,97
69»07
83*22
56.51
67.79
58.52
70.98
82.00
54.81
67.26
58.00
72.85
83. a
53.73
63.00
56.17
73.03
8> + .M5
55.47
71. 08
60.04
72.62
85. U
§6. BO
73 .74
62.64
74.17
83. 96
85.04
86.06
84.91
85.84
86.49
80.65
89. 3B
91.39
77. SI
92.15
BO. 99
91.73
81,33
1945 . . . .
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....
13.49
18.02
15.21
14.83
15.36
13,94
18.07
15.80
14.10
14.77
13.93
17.53
15.16
14.30
14.91
14.28
18.66
14.60
15.40
14.89
14.82
18.70
14.34
16.15
14.78
15.09
18.58
14.84
16.82
13.97
14.78
18.05
15.77
16.42
14.76
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
16.88
21.21
24.19
26.18
25.46
17.21
22.00
23.75
25.86
26.02
17.35
21.63
23.81
25.99
26.57
17.84
21.92
23.74
24.71
27.63
18.44
21.93
23.73
24.84
28.73
18.74
21.55
24.38
23.95
28.96
17.38
21.93
25.08
24.29
30.13
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
35.60
44.15
45.43
41.12
55.62
36.79
44.43
43.47
41.26
54.77
36.50
47.49
44.03
42,11
56.15
37.76
48.05
45.05
42.34
57.10
37.60
46.54
46.78
43.70
57.96
39.78
46.27
47.55
44.75
57.46
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
58.03
59.72
69.07
65.06
76.45
55.78
62.17
70.22
65.92
77.39
55.02
64.12
70.29
65.67
78.80
55.73
65.83
68.05
68.76
79.94
55.22
66.50
62.99
70.14
80.72
1965 ....
1966 ....
86.12
93.32
86.75
92.69
86.83
88. 88
87.97
91.60
89.28
86.78
14.83
17.70
15.46
15.94
15.29
77.::.3
26. Buying policy, production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (Poroent reporting)®
1945.
1946.
1947,
1948.
1949,
a
55
84
64
64
43
58
'83
64
63
45
58
83
58
62
42
62
79
53
64
40
69
73
55
63
41
38
73
73
53
74
67
66
66
67
43
68
76
68
68
48
66
(NA)
41
72
75
71
43
71
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
49
66
75
70
49
65
49
67
48
64
1950.
1951,
1952,
1953.
1954.. . . .
53
89
66
65
1955.
1956,. . . .
1957,....
1958.. . . .
1959.
60
72
94
(NA)
(NA)
(MA)
(NA)
36
76
62
56
49
SB
73
59
49
51
88
75
63
49
52
86
69
61
48
49
69
63
49
74
78
79
77
62
52
74
74
62
56
77
68
61
57
72
66
66
80
65
53
58
67
50
59
52
54
64
48
54
51
55
6§
63
73
63
70
1960.
1961,. • .
1962,. . . .
1963.. . . .
1964.
64
51
57
50
53
64
49
61
55
54
56
50
56
54
56
61
57
55
53
59
55
54
49
52
58
57
56
52
57
59
54
56
58
54
58
50
55
52
55
58
49
57
52
56
61
50
59
55
53
60
1965.
1966.
65
68
65
67
68
68
67
69
65
70
62
72
62
73
63
73
61
72
63
75
NOTE:
Series 19 contains no revisions, but data not previously shown for 1945 through 1947 have been atU
Series 26 contains no revisions but is republished for the convenience of the user.
76
86
54
Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data
are published in this appendix for: (a) new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developments, fb) series which have been revised recently, and'(c)'series which
have not been shown historically for a long period of time. See the Index, Series Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published.
Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ©(indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title.
Year
Feb.
Jan.
Mar.
Apr.
July
June
May
Aug.
Sept.
Nov.
Oct.
Dec.
30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (Thousands)
472
464
466
380
1,077
474
447
458
362
966
469
424
463
373
906
433
429
458
372
960
452
418
470
367
942
483
419
461
361
703
460
432
434
379
530
444
445
445
380
512
467
448
432
370
492
460
481
447
369
488
445
478
403
380
371
569
547
563
425
388
574
527
580
426
404
572
526
569
421
420
557
550
548
425
441
553
537
548
419
453
546
538
551
420
477
557
521
541
427
527
539
530
520
422
515
532
544
497
432
530
523
554
482
433
545
528
556
464
446
520
532
555
447
463
1957 ....
1953 ....
1959 ....
482
510
505
419
484
481
503
508
409
493
492
514
498
395
511
490
517
485
401
517
500
514
486
409
521
496
511
489
•415
516
503
494
492
421
521
520
498
473
434
508
515
502
466
440
508
521
506
459
445
499
523
502
441
460
509
520
502
429
476
508
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 . .'. .
1963 ....
1964 ....
518
444
557
552
534
519
447
557
554
532
501
459
569
555
523
512
448
569
557
522
490
469
586
546
529
481
494
561
545
518
475
493
557
541
523
472
512
553
543
507
476
507
551
553
518
471
524
557
575
514
453
540
565
533
533
459
551
543
525
524
1965 ....
1966 ....
522
570
549
600
528
589
535
522
533
513
548
567
541
542
537
543
529
509
547
533
544
530
563
524
1945 ....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....
1,297
495
441
472
393
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
1955 ....
lass ....
1,192
37.. Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting higher inventories (Percent reporting)
...
NOTE:
38
47
27
41
45
35
*45
42
38
46
42
31
49
37
41
63
46
30
46
38
54
44
39
43
40
48
42
38
42
41
48
45
40
37
45
51
43
41
34
47
45
34
62
54
52
(NA)
43
49
53
54
42
43
43
53
53
42
46
38
57
45
41
51
43
56
54
38
48
49
45
43
47
56
54
42
46
44
55
55
37
54
45
50
54
41
57
43
49
59
38
56
46
46
59
41
52
50
43
63
39
55
49
43
60
56
54
54
58
58
57
57
53
47
56
49
55
49
55
*36
(NA)
43
48
39
52
44
36
49
44
34
47
46
28
35
49
26
36
55
24
44
48
43
42
34
48
44
41
45
31
49
47
37
47
32
51
52
36
44
34
60
51
30
41
39
61
46
33
43
34
48
52
54
36
45
52
57
54
33
57
55
57
47
32
60
55
58
41
31
64
56
61
43
29
66
63
57
40
32
66
(NA)
(NA)
48
41
60
47
42
58
35
59
48
50
52
39
58
47
55
47
42
54
48
53
44
46
51
55
50
61
49
62
47
57
52
61
51
59
53
22
63
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
The series on this page contain no revisions; but, where available, data not previously shown for 1945
have been added.
(March
through 1947
1968)
77
Appendix F-HISTORICAL DATA FOR SELECTED SERIES-Continued
This appendix contains historical data for Business Cycle Developments series extending back to 1945 or to the earliest date thereafter for which data are available. Data
are published in this appendix for (a> new series which have been added to Business Cycle Developmentsf (b) series which have been revised recently, and ft\ series whi:h
have not been shown historically for a long period of time, See the Index, Series Finding Guide, for the latest issue in which historical data for each series were published.
Current data are shown in tables 2 and 3. Data are seasonally adjusted unless the symbol ©(indicating unadjusted data) follows the series title.
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
99. New orders, defense products industries (Bil. dol.)
1945 ....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....
...
*.*
...
*.*
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
*.•
...
...
...
...
...
. >*
...
1.59
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
2.17
1,51
2.51
1.31
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959 ....
1.13
2.06
1.54
1.06
1.51
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
1965 ....
1966 ....
.»
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
.. *
. *.
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. *
.. .
.. .
...
.. .
.. .
.. .
...
...
.. .
...
.. .
...
...
...
* *.
.. .
.. .
. *.
.. .
.. *
...
. *.
...
*..
.. .
1.43
1.21
1.46
0.98
1.79
1.98
1.52
1.78
2.15
2.X7
1.74
2.22
1.86
l.S-0
1.33
l.£>7
2.27
1.92
1.88
2.47
1.93
1.36
1.97
2.09
1.92
1.66
a. ix
1.98
1.86
1.70
1.97
1.79
2. S3
1.4B
1.B7
3.45
4.67
3.28
3.31
2.57
2.73
2.53
3.36
1.04
1.48
1.01
1.06
2.04
1.08
1.25
0.83
1.85
1.42
1.38
X.59
1.39
1.35
1.20
1.62
1.52
2.59
1.74
0.88
1.94
1.33
1.35
2.07
1.42
1.67
1.78
1.56
1.77
1.46
1.94
1.34
1.82
1.97
1.32
1.85
0.97
1.98
1.66
1.32
4.45
1.43
1.55
1.54
2.08
1.78
1.06
1.10
1.72
1.50
1.45
1.99
2.89
2.67
1.49
2.00
2.05
2.09
2.40
2.19
1.43
2.11
2.42
2.18
1.55
1.85
2.24
1.97
2.37
1.94
1.82
2.24
2.40
2.48
2.08
1.73
2.08
1.90
2.34
1.95
2.11
2.07
2.40
3.29
2.11
1.96
1.94
2.36
1.86
2.37
3.40
2.44
3.04
2.46
3.38
3.24
3.30
2.46
2.91
2.58
3.68
2.62
3.50
2,81
3.16
1.54
2.f>2,
2.;,8
1.K2
Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets (Annual rate? mil. dol.)
...
.. *
...
...
....
...
...
1950 ....
1951 ....
1952 ....
1953 ....
1954 ....
...
...
...
...
24,644
24,572
17,108
1955 ....
1956 ....
1957 ....
1958 ....
1959
...
...
33,176
26,332
33,276
25,808
33,024
1960 ....
1961 ....
1962 ....
1963 ....
1964 ....
...
...
*.*
...
...
41,552
25,560
42,028
44,384
51,096
1965 ....
1966 ....
...
66,468
70,500
. • H
. * »
...
...
.. *
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
• **
...
*.
.. .
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.
...
...
...
...
...
26,536
23,672
20,604
...
...
...
...
33,608
31,840
34,232
24,028
48,776
...
...
...
...
...
...
33,272
34,404
45,452
49,924
60,516
...
...
...
...
...
.,
.. .
.. .
.. .
...
* •»
. .»
. .»
.. .
..
..
...
...
...
...
••
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.. .
.. .
66,012
73,908
24,756
19,840
23,412
Series 110 in revised beginning with the first quarter, 1964.
...
...
...
...
36,556
30,224
29,420
27,728
42,360
...
...
...
...
...
30,236
36,328
44,400
51,980
56,840
...
...
67,056
58,004
...
...
Series 99 contains no revisions but is republished for the convenience of the user.
.. .
. *.
. *.
.. .
1.09
0.58
2.06
1.10
1945 ....
1946 ....
1947 ....
1948 ....
1949 ....
78
...
.. .
1.56
1.39
110.
NOTE;
...
...
...
...
•••
•.•
...
...
...
.. .
...
...
...
...
t1
i,
,.
., .
,,.
„.
ti .
».
,,
••
•*
..
» 0
• (1
..
..
..
29,044
16,988
25,383
.* .
...
39,248
31,952
25,680
36,700
34,032
**.
.. .
.. »
*•.
...
27,140
39,460
45,036
54,508
53,624
64,568
45,748
4 « »
4 . .
t . .
i • •
„..
II
..
...
INDEX
SERIES FINDING GUIDE
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Series titles by economic process and other groupings
(See complete titles and sources en back cover)
Timing
classification
Charts
Tables
Appendixes
Page
Issue
I. EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
*L
*30.
2.
5.
3.
301.
46.
Avg. workweek, production workers, mfg.
Nonagricuitural placements, all indus
Accession rate, manufacturing
Initial claims, State unemploy. insurance
Layoff rate, manufacturing
Nonagri. job openings unfilled
Help-wanted advertising
L ..,
9
L ...
9
L ...
9
L ...
9
L ...
9
C .., 17
C ... 17
33
33
511.
*41.
42.
*43.
45.
40.
*502.
Man-hours in nonagri.establishments
Employees in nonagri. establishments
Total nonagricultural employment
Unemployment rate, total
Avg. weekly insured unemploy. rate, State
Unemployment rate, married males
Unemploy. rate, 15 weeks and over
C .,.
C .,.
C ..,
C ...
C ...
C .. Lg....
17
17
17
is
18
is
22
38
38
38
38
38
38
41
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C ...
C
C ...
18
18
18
19
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
66-7
66-7
33
33
33
38
38
68
68
68
68
68
68
68
77
77
76
66
76
76
76
73
73
73
68
68
68
68
68
68
69
Oct. <67
Mar. (68
Sept. <67
July '631
Sept. !67
Feb. '68
Dec. '67
77
77
75
76
76
75
77
Feb.
Oct.
Feb.
Feb.
Dec.
Feb.
Feb.
'68
'67
'68
'68
'67
'68
'68
73
73
77
74
74
77
74
72
July
July
Dec.
July
July
Apr.
July
Apr.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'66
74
75
78
June '65
Mar. '68
June '67
78
76
75
May '67
Aug. '67
Dec. '67
68
68
66-7 68
- I 68
70
66-7 70
69
78
76
74
78
77
65
78
May '67
Aug. '67
June '65
Dec. '67
Aug. '67
June !64
Nov. '67
72
71
68
71
68
68
71
69
69
72
72
77
75
76
75
76
73
72
July
Nov.
Mar.
Dec.
Mar.
Jan.
Dec.
Apr.
Apr.
66-7
66-7
66-7
74
74
II. PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
49.
*50.
*47.
*52.
53.
*816.
57.
*54.
GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Industrial production.
Personal income
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., constr.
Manufacturing and trade sales
Final sales
Sales of retail stores
19
19
19
19
66-7
66-7
66-7
66-7
66-7
70
70
68
68
68
68
70
68
74
74
74
74
74
74
III. FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT
*38. Index of net business formation
,
13. New business incorporations
*6. New orders, durable goods industries
94. Construction contracts, value
*10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
11. Mew capital appropriations, mfg
24. New orders, mach. and equip, industries
L
L
L
L
L
L
9.
7.
*29.
96.
97.
*61.
505.
L ...
L ...
L ...
C ...
C ...
Lg...
Lg. • -
11
n
11
20
20
22
22
34
34
34
40
40
41
41
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ..,
L ...
L ...
L ,..
Lg...
Lg...
12
12
12
12
12
13
13
22
22
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
41
41
Construction contracts, comm. and indus
Private nonfarm housing starts ...New building permits, private housing
Unfilled orders, durable goods industries
Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg
Bus. expenditures, new plant and equip .,
Mach. and equip, sales and bus. constr. expend
... 10
... 10
... 10
... 10
,.. 10
... n
L ... n
33
33
34
34
34
34
34
66-7
73
66-7
66-7
68
68
68
70
68
IV. INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
21.
*31.
37.
20.
26.
32.
25.
*71.
65.
Change in business inventories
Change, mfg. and trade inventories .. D
Purchased materials, higher inventories
Change, mtls. and supplies inventories
Buying policy, production materials
Vendor performance, slower deliveries
Change in unfilled orders, durable goods
Book value, mfg. and trade inventories
Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods, book value
*Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators.
66-7
66-7
L^ leading C = roughly coincident, Lg= lagging.
1
73
'67
'66
'68
'67
'68
'68
'67
'67
'67
Appendix G in this issue.
79
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Series titles by economic process and other groupings
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
Charts
Timing
classification
Appendixes
Tables
Page
Issue
75
Doc.
Mar.
Oct.
July
July
Apr.
July
Feb.
Apr.
July
July
Feb.
'67
'68
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
Sept.
Sept.
Apr.
D©e.
Apr.
Mar.
Mar.
Apr.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'68
'68
'67
76
71
72
76
77
77
73
75
77
Jan.
July
Aug.
Jan.
Jan.
Dee.
Apr.
Jan.
Jan.
'68
'64
'66
'68
'68
'67
'67
'68
'68
79
79
74
73
J77
78
74
June
June
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
76
78
78
78
76
78
V. PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
*23.
*19.
19.
*16.
22.
18.
if;
17.
55.
58.
68.
*62.
81.
Industrial materials prices
Stock prices, 500 common stocks (1941-43= 10)
Stock prices, 500 common stocks (1957-59 = 100)
Corporate profits after taxes
Ratio, profits to income originating, corporate
Profits per dollar of sales, mfg
Ratio, price to unit tabor cost, mfg
Wholesale price index, industrial commodities.
Wholesale price index, manufactured goods
Labor cost per unit of gross product, nonfin, corporations
Labor cost per unit of output, mfg
Consumer prices
L ...
L ...
L- . .
L.
L ...
L.
L.
C.
C ...
Lg...
Lg...
U ...
13
13
32
H
20
23
23
24
36
36
4B
36
36
36
36
40
4,0
42
42
43
66-7
66-7
68-9
66-7
66-7
66-7
68
68
70
70
70
70
68
68
68
70
69
69
76
77
72
73
71
72
73
72 i!
75
75
73
VI. MONEY AND CREDIT
98.
85.
33.
*113.
112.
110.
14.
39.
93.
114.
116.
115.
117.
66.
"72.
*67.
118.
Change, money supply and time deposits
Change, total U.S. money supply
Change, mortgage debt
,
Change, consumer installment
debt
2
Change, business loans
Total private borrowing^
Liabilities of business failures
Delinquency rate, instal. loans, 30 days and over
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ...
L ,..
L ...
L ...
L ...
15
15
15
15
15
16
16
16
Free reserves
Treasury bill rate 2 2
Corporate bond yields
Treasury bond yields 22
•
Municipal bond yields
Consumer installment debt
Comm. and Indus, loans outstanding
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Mortgage yields, residential 2
C .. C ...
C ...
C .. . 1
C ...
Lg...
Lg...
Lg...
Lg...
21
21
21
21
21
23
25
23
23
U ...
U ...
U .,.
U ...
U .,.
U ...
U ...
24.
24
24
25
25
25
25
71
71
71
66-7 71
71
70
68
68
73
73
73
73
71
68
68
68
68
66-7
66-7 70
69
73
77
76
71
78
75
78
1 75
VII. FOREIGN TRADE AND PAYMENTS
89. U.S. balance of payments:
a. Liquidity balance basis
b. Official settlements basis
88. Merchandise trade balance
86. Exports, excluding military aid
861. Export orders, durable goods, except motor vehicles....
862. Export orders, nonelectric machinery
87. General imports
72
72
71
69
69
69
169
73
VIII. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
95.
84.
83.
82.
101.
91.
90.
99.
92.
Fed, balance, nat'l. income and prod, account
Federal cash surplus or deficit
Federal cash receipts from public
Federal cash payments to public
National defense purchases, current dollars
Defense Department obligations, total
Defense Dept. obligations, procurement
New orders, defense products industries
Military contract awards in U.S
U ... 26
U ... 26
U.
U ... 26
U.
u•
U•
UU ... 27
72
70
70
70
69
69
69
U ..
U..
U. . .
U..
U ..
U ..
U. . .
U. .
70
69
69
69
70
69
69
70
72
'73
76
July '67
Oct. '67
Oct. '67
Dot, '67
July i67
Doe, '67
Dec,, !67
Mm 1 , '68
Aug. '67
73
73
77
77
77
78
78
78
79
78
July
July
July
July
Jialy
Feb.
July
Feb.
73
SERIES UNCLASSIFIED BY CYCLICAL TIMING
AND ECONOMIC PROCESS
850.
851.
852.
853.
854.
855.
856.
857.
Ratio, output to capacity, mfg
Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments durable goods
Ratio, prod, of bus. equipment to consumer goods
Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income ..
Ratio, nonagri. job openings unfilled to unemployed....
Ratio, avg. earnings to consumer prices
Vacancy rate in total rental housing
2g
29
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'6B
'67
'M!
'"Series preceded by an asterisk rf;) are on the 1966 NBER "short list" of 25 indicators. L : - leading, C - roughly coincident, Lg- lagging, U --undassififid{"series unclassified by cyeleal timing,"
"series unclassified by cyclical timing and economic process," and "international comparisons"!.
^-Appendix G in this issue.
2/\ description of this scries is contained in the Julvl964 issue of
BCD I appendix G).
80
SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
(PAGE NUMBERS. See table of contents (page i) for chart, table, and appendix titles)
Series titles by economic process and other grouping
(See complete titles and sources on back cover)
Timing
classification
Charts
Tabies
Appendixes
Page
Issue
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
123.
122.
126.
125.
128.
121.
127.
Canada index of industrial production
United Kingdom, index of industrial production
France, index of industrial production
West Germany, index of industrial production
Japan, index of industrial production
OECD-Europe, index of industrial production
Italy, index of industrial production
U ....
U
U
U ....
U....
U
U
30
30
30
30
30
30
30
46
46
46
46
46
46
69
69
69
69
69
69
69
76
77
78
77
68
77
78
Nov. '67
Nov. '67
Nov. '67
Oct. '64
Nov. !67
Nov. '67
133.
132.
136.
135.
138.
137=
Canada, index of consumer prices
United Kingdom, index of consumer prices
France, index of consumer prices
West Germany, index of consumer prices
Japan, index of consumer prices
Italy, index of consumer prices
U
U ....
U
U ....
U ....
U
31
31
31
31
31
31
47
47
47
47
47
47
69
69
69
69
69
69
79
79
80
79
80
80
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
143.
142.
146.
145.
148.
147.
Canada, index of stock prices
United Kingdom, index of stock prices
France, index of stock prices
West Germany, index of stock prices
Japan, index of stock prices
Italy, index of stock prices
U
U
U
U
U
U....
32
32
32
32
32
32
4$
48
48
48
48
48
69
69
69
69
69
69
81
81
82
81
82
82
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
Oct.
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
'67
83
72
77
69
72
72
73
Oct.
Apr.
Aug.
Oct.
Apr.
Apr.
May
'67
'65
'67
'64
'65
'65
'65
79
73
78
73
70
70
3-9
69
Nov.
Apr.
Apr.
Apr.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
Nov.
'67
'65
'67
'65
'64
'64
'64
'64
July '67
DIFFUSION INDEXES
Dl.
D6.
Dll.
D34.
D19.
D23.
D5.
Average workweek
New orders
Capital appropriations
Profits, mfg
Stock prices
Industrial materials prices
Initial claims
-
51
51
51
51
51
51
51
54
54
54
55
55
55
55
D4L
D47.
D58.
054.
D35.
D36.
D48.
061.
Employees in nonagri. establishments
Industrial production
Wholesale prices, mfg
Retail sales
Net sales, mfrs
New orders
Freight carloadings
,
New plant and equipment expenditures
-
52
52
52
52
53
53
53
53
56
56
56
56
57
57
57
57
..
73
59
60
60
61
61
62
63
I] - unclassified ("series unclassified bv cyclical timine." "series unclassified bv cyclical timine and economic orocess." and "international comparisons").
81
A Continuing Review of
the Retail Trade From the
Bureau of the Census
RETAIL
TRADE
USA
The Bureau of the Census publishes the results of its
continuing surveys of retail trade in five series of reports
issued weekly, monthly, and annually. The reports, which
comprise an invaluable reference library for everyone concerned with retail trade developments, furnish data on dollar
sales, accounts receivable, per capita sales, and other subjects.
WEEKLY RETAIL SALES
Estimates of weekly retail sales for the United States for
selected major kind-of-business groups, including figures for
the comparable weeks in the previous year, Issued on Thursday
of the week following the week covered,
MONTHLY DEPARTMENT STORE
SALES FOR SELECTED AREAS
Monthly dollar sales volume and the percent change in sales
compared with the previous month and the same month
in the previous year, Cumulative year-to-date comparisons
with data for the previous year are also shown, Data are
collected in about 200 standard metropolitan statistical areas,
cities, and other areas,
MONTHLY RETAIL SALES
Estimates of monthly retail sales for the United States by
major kind-of-business groups and selected individual kinds
of business; separate figures shown, irt more limited kind-ofbusiness detail, for firms operating 11 or more retail stores.
Summary sales data presented for geographic regions and
divisions, and for 15 large States a^id 20 large standard
metropolitan statistical areas, Also included are national
estimates of end-of-month accounts receivable balances for
retail stores.
ANNUAL RETAIL TRADE REPORT
Estimates of the cost value of inventories held by retailers
in the United States by major kind-of-business groups and
selected individual kinds of business, Separate figures shown
in more limited kind-of-business detail for firms operating 11
or more retail stores. Also shown are salos-inventory ratios
as well as per capita sales, by kind-of-!business for the United
States, by major kind-of-business groups for geographic regions,
and summary figures for geographic divisions and for the
larger States and standard metropolitan statistical areas.
ADVANCE MONTHLY RETAIL
SALES
Advance estimates of monthly retail sales for the United
States by major kind-of-business groups. Sales data are
shown adjusted for seasonal variation and trading day differences, as well as in unadjusted form, Issued about 10 days
after the end of the month covered*
For additional information on the contents and subscription
prices of these reports, write to Bureau of the Census,
Washington, D. C. 20233,
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE /Bureau of the Census
Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes
The numbers assigned to the series are for identification purposes only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
"M" indicates monthly series; "Q" indicates quarterly series.
Data apply to the whole period except for series designated
by "EOIVT (end of the month) or "EOQ" (end of the quarter).
The Roman numeral identifies the economic process group in
which a series is classified. (See Finding Guide.) Thus,
"(W, II)" indicates a monthly series classified in group I).
The general classification follows the approach of this National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. The series preceded by
an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short list"
of 25 indicators.
36 Leading indicators
*1. Average wo;kweek of production workers, manufacturing
(M,l).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, machinery and equipment industries (M,HI).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (IVI,1V).--Department of Commerce. Bureau of
the Census
*29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (M,III).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction (M,ll).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics
*30. Nonagricultural placements, all industries (M T n.-Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security, seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*54. Sales of retail stores (M,ll).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
*31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M,IV).-Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, and Bureau of the Census
Vl,l).-Department of Labor,
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
and life insurance companies (M,VI).-Institute of Life
Insurance, Federal National Mortgage Association,National
Association of Mutual Savings Banks. U.S. Savings and
Loan League, and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System;seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods indus
tries (IKI.III).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
7. New private nonfarm housing units started (M.I 11). -Depart
ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and indus
trial buildings,floor space(M,III).»F.W Dodge Corporation;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
MO. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment (M,lll).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, and F.W.
Dodge Corporation; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations (Q.lll) -National Industrial Conference Board;
component industries are seasonally adjusted and added
to obtain seasonally adjusted total
13. Number of new business incorporations (Mflll).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M,VI)."Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
*16. Corporate profits after taxes (Q,V).-Department of Commerce. Office of Business Economics
*17. Price per unit of labor cost index-ratio, wholesale prices
of manufactured goods index (unadjusted) to seasonally
adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages,
salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per unit
of output (M,V).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics; Department of Labor, Bureau o'J Labor
Statistics; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
18. Profits (before taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing
corporations (Q,V).--Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission, seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census
*19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M ( V).--Standard
and Poor's Corporation; no seasonal adjustment
20. Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories ui
materials and supplies (M,IV).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
21. Change in business inventories, farm and nonfarrn, after
valuation adjustment (GNP component) (Q,IV).--Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries (Q,V).-Department of Commerce, Office
of Business Economics
<23. Index of industrial materials prices (M,V).-Department of
Labor. Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment •
*5G. Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q,ll).- Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
*52. Personal income (Bl.ll).-Department of Commerce,, Office
of Business Economics
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
(M,IV.)..-Chicago Purchasing Agents Association, no seasonal adjustment
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
State programs (M,I).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Employment Security; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
49. Gross national product in current dollars (Q,11).--Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
26. Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer (M,IV).-National Association
of Purchasing Agents; no seasonal adjustment
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M,l).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
3. Layofif rate, manufacturing
Bureau of Labor Statistics
*47. Index of industrial production (M,ll). -Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System
37. Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials
(IV!,IV).-National Association of Purchasing Agents; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*38. Index of net business formation (M, 111).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc., and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days
and over (EOM.VI).-American Bankers Association; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Bimonthly since
December 1964)
85. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
plus currency) (M,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
94. Index of construction contracts, total value (M,III).-F.W.
Dodge Corporation
98. Percent change in total U.S. money supply (demand deposits
and currency) and commercial bank time deposits (M,VI).Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q,VI).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
55. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities (M,V).»
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
57. Final sales (series 49 minus series 21) (Q,ll). -Department
of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
58. Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M,V).•Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, no ssasonal adjustment
93. Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus borrow
ings) (M,VI). -Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System; no seasonal adjustment
%.Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM,III).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing (EOQ.III).National Industrial Conference Board, component industries
are seasonally adjusted and added to obtain seasonally
adjusted total
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M,Vl).-< Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
no seasonal adjustment
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M,VI).-Treasury Department; no seasonal adjustment
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds (M,VI). •
First National City Bank of New York and Treasury Department: no seasonal adjustment
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M,VI). The
Bond Buyer;, no seasonal adjustment
301. Nonagricultural job openings unfilled (EOP/1,1) Department
of Labor., Bureau of Employment Security., seasonal adjust
ment by Bureau of the Census
511. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments, (M,l). Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
*816. Manufacturing and trade sales (M,ll).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics and Bureau of the
Census
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M,VI).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*113. Net change in consumer installment debt (ffl.VI).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
25 Roughly Coincident Indicators
40. Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present (M,l).~
Department of Labor. Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*41. Number of employees in nonagricultural establishments
(M,I).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
42. Total nonagricultural employment, labor force survey (M,l).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
*43. Unemployment rate, total (M,|). Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the. Census
11 Lagging Indicators
'-61, Business expenditures on new plant and equipment, total
(Q,III).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics, and the Securities and Exchange Commission
*62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total manufacturingratio, index of compensation of employees in manufacturing
(the sum of wages and salaries and supplements to wages
and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufactur
ing (M,V). -Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
65. Book value of manufacturers' inventories of finished goods,
all manufacturing industries (EOM.IV).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM,VI).--Board of Governors
. of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally adjusted
net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous
month to obtain current figure
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
(M,l).~Department of Labor, Bureau of Employment Security
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M.l).-National Industrial Conference Board
Continued on reverse
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
POSTAGE AND FEES PAID
U.S.
DIVISION OF PUBLIC DOCUMENTS
GOVERNMENT PRINTING O F F I C E
WASHINGTON, o,c. 20402
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
FIRST CLASS MAIL
Titles and Sources of Principal Business Cycle Series and Diffusion Indexes-Continued
99. New orders, defense products industries (M,VIII).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
128. Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product (1958
dollars), nonfinancial corporations (ratio of current-dollar
compensation of employees to gross corporate product in
1958 dollars) (Q,V).~Department of Commerce, Office of
Business Economics, National Income Division
101. Federal purchases of goods and services, national defense
(Q.VIII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
861. Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods except
motor vehicles and parts (M.VII).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census; no seasonal adjustment
... United States, index of industrial production (M,ll).-See
series 47
*71. Book value, manufacturing and trade inventories, total
(EOM.iy).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics ana Bureau of the Census
862. Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery (M,V|I).McGraw-Hill, Department of Economics; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities (Q,VI).»
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; no
seasonal adjustment
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly reporting large commercial banks (EOM.VI).-Board of Governors
of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages<N|,VI).»Federal
Housing Administration; no seasonal adjustment
*502. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M,l).--Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
505. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M.lll).--Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
16 Series Unclassified by
Cyclical Timing
81. Index of consumer prices (M,V).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; no seasonal adjustment
82. Federal cash payments to the public (Q.VIII).-Treasury
Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of
the President, Bureau of the Budget
83. Federal cash receipts from the public (Q,VIII).-Treasury
Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of
the President, Bureau of the Budget
84. Federal cash surplus or deficit (Q.Vlll).-Treasury Department, Bureau of Accounts, and Executive Office of the
President, Bureau of the Budget
86. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M,VII).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
87. General imports, total (M,VII).-Departmerit of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
8 Series Unclassified by
Cyclical Timing
and Economic Process
850. Ratio, output to capacity, mfg. (Q).-Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and
McGraw-Hill Economics Department
851. Ratio, inventories (BCD series 71) to sales (BCD series
816), manufacturing and trade total (M).- Department of
Commerce, Office of Business Economics
852. Ratio, unfilled orders (BCD series %) to shipments, manufacturers' durable goods (M).~ Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
853. Ratio, production of business equipment to production of
consumer goods (index: 1957-59 = 100) (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System. (Based upon
components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial
production.)
854. Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income (Q).Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
855. Patio, nofiagricultural job openings unfilled (BCD series
301) to number of persons unemployed (M).--Department of
Labor, Bureau of Employment Security and Bureau of Labor
Statistics; and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
856. Ratio, average hourly earnings of production workers in
manufacturing to consumer prices (BCD series 81) (M).~
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
90. Defense Department obligations, procurement (M,VIII).»
Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of the Census
91. Defense Department obligations, total (M,VIII).-Department
of Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census
92. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms and
institutions (M,VIII).-Department of Defense, Directorate
for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
the Census
95. Federal surplus or deficit, national income and product
account (Q.VIII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics
133. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).--Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal Adjustment
135. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).«Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal adjustment
136. France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut Notional de
la Statistiquc et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); no
seasonal adjustment
137. Italy, index of consumer prices (M).-*lstituto C Mitralo di
Statistics (Rome); no seasonal adjustment
138. Japan, index of consumer prices (M).--Offico of the Prime
Minister (Tokyo); r,o seasonal adjustment
. . . United States, index of consumer prices (M,V).~ See
Series 81
142. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).«Trte Financial
Times (London); m seasonal adjustment
143, Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Dominion Bureau of
Statistics (Ottawa); no seasonal adjustment
145. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).«Statistisches
Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); no seasonal adjustment
146. France, index cf stock prices (M).--lnstitut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris); no seasonal
adjustment
147. Italy, index of slock prices (M).-lstituto Centrale di Statistica(Rome); no seasonal adjustment
148. Japan, index of stock prices (W).-Tokyo Stock Exchange
(Tokyo); oo seamil adjustment
.., United States, index of stock prices, 500 comnon stocks
(M,V).»See series 19
857. Vacancy rate in rental housing-unoccupied rental housing
units as a percent of total rental housing (Q).-- Department
of Commerce, Bureau of the Census,
88. Merchandise trade balance (series 86 minus series 87)
(IVI,VII).--Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
89. Excess of receipts or payments in U.S. balance of payments
(Q,VII).-Department of Commerce, Office of Business
Economics
132. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).--Ministry of
Labour (London); no seasonal adjustment
Diffusion Indexes
19 International Comparisons
121. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development,
European Countries, index of industrial production (M).~
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(Paris)
122. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (JffJ.-Central
Statistical Office (London)
The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index.
Diffusion indexes and corresponding business cycle series
bear the same numoei and are obtained from the sane sources.
See sources above for DI, 05, D6B Dll, 019, 023, 04], D47,
D54, D!8, and 061 Sources for other diffusion indexes are
as follows;
D34. Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National City
Bank of Mew York; no seasonal adjustment of <;eri6s components. Diffusion indexes are seasonally adjusted by
Bureau of the Census and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
123. Canada, index of industrial production (M).--Domirtion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
125. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).-Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonally adjusted by
OECD
126. France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
035. Net sales, to'Ial manufactures (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
127. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lstituto Centrale
di Statistica(Rbme)
048. Freight earloadings (Q).-Association of American Railroads; no seasonal adjustment
For Index-Series Finding Guide, see last pages of issue.
D36. New orders, durable manufactures (Q).»Dun and Bradstroet,
Inc.; no seasonal adjustment
@FedFRASER