Full text of Business Conditions Digest : June 1988
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BUSINESS
CONDITIONS
DIGEST
JUNE 1988
U.S. DEPARTMENT
OF COMMERCE
BUREAU OF
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
C. William Verity, Secretary
Robert Ortner, Under Secretary for Economic Affairs
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Allan H. Young, Director
Carol S. Carson, Deputy Director
Edward K. Smith, Associate Director for
National Analysis and Projections
George R. Green, Editor
This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division of the Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication are—
Barry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Brian D. Kajutti—Composite indexes
Mary D. Young—Data collection and compilation (Phone: 202-523-0541)
The cooperation of Government and private agencies that provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series titles and
sources at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee consisting
of the following persons:
Ronald E. Kutscher, Acting Chairman, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of
Labor
Ahmad Al-Samarrie, Office of Management and Budget
John H. Auten, U.S. Department of the Treasury
Andrea Kusko, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Edward K. Smith, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Peter M. Taylor, Council of Economic Advisers
Charles A. Waite, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.
Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.
Annual subscription price: $44.00 domestic,
$55.00 foreign. Single copy price: $4.00 domestic, $5.00 foreign. Foreign airmail rates are
available on request. Address correspondence
concerning subscriptions to Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402. Make checks payable
to Superintendent of Documents.
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
New Features and Changes for This Issue
Composite Indexes: Latest Release
iii
v
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
1
1
1
1
4
5
5
6
ItCII
JUNE 1 9 8 8
Data Through May
Volume 28, Number 6
PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A2
A3
A4
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR C O M P O N E N T S
Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components
Bl
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit
16
19
21
23
26
28
31
61
63
64
65
68
69
71
Cl
C2
C3
DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change
36
—
39
74
77
—
Al
The Secretary of Commerce has determined
that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business
required by law of this Department.
Chart
10
12
14
15
Table
60
—
—
—
ItCII
PART II.
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
Al
A2
A3
A4
A5
_A6_
A7
A8
NATIONAL INCOME
AND PRODUCT
GNPand Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNP and National Income
Bl
B2
PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
Chart
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
51
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators
52
53
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements
56
57
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices
58
59
59
PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators}
QCDand Related Measures of Variability (See 1984 Handbook of Cyclical Indicators)
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources Of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide"}
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (January 1988 issue)
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Indicators (April 1988 issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series
Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Business Conditions Digest,
Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce,
Washington, DC 20230
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of
changes are made from
Changes in this issue are as follows:
1. The series on establishment employment (series 1, 21,
40, 41, 48, 340, 341, 570, 961, and 963) have been revised by
the source agency to reflect the adoption of a new benchmark
and the application of new seasonal adjustment factors. Series 48 and 570 contain revisions for 1986 forward; the other
series contain revisions for 1983 forward.
Revised data for other series affected by these revisions
(series 26, 63, 345, 346, 358, and 370) will be included in a
future issue.
Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Office of Employment Structure and Trends, Division of Monthly Industry Employment Statistics.
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
2. The series on commercial and industrial loans outstanding (series 72, 101, and 112) have been revised for 1984
forward. Data for 1984 through 1987 have been adjusted by the
source agency to reflect an increase in the size of the reporting panel. In addition, data on commercial paper issued
by nonfinancial companies have been revised to reflect data as
published by the source agency. (See item 5 on page iv of the
April 1988 BCD.)
Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System, Division of Research and Statistics, Banking Section.
3. The series on change in business and consumer credit
outstanding (series 111) has been revised for 1984 forward to
incorporate the revision in series 72 (see item 2, above),
which is one of its components. Another component, real estate loans of large commercial banks, has been adjusted by the
source agency for 1984 forward to reflect an increase in the
size of the reporting panel.
Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System, Division of Research and Statistics, Banking Section;
and the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistical Indicators Division.
(Continued on page iv.)
The July issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
release on August 8.
deletions of series,
changes in placement of
series in relation to
other series, changes
in composition of
indexes, etc.
4. The series on merchandise exports excluding military aid shipments (series 602)
and general imports (series 612) have been revised by the source agency for 1986 forward
to reintroduce the seasonal adjustment of these data. Data prior to 1986 are based on
the source agency's previous seasonal adjustment.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Foreign Trade Division.
5. The series on U.S. international transactions (series 618, 620, 622, 651, 652,
and 667-669) have been revised by the source agency to reflect the annual updating of
the basic statistics, retabulation of Census Bureau data to reflect the actual month of
transaction, inclusion of errata to Census Bureau data, and the application of new seasonal adjustment factors. The dates for these revisions are as follows:
1978 through 1985: Series 618, 620, and 622;
1978 forward: Series 667-669;
1984 forward: Series 651;
1986 forward: Series 652.
Further information concerning these revisions may be obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Balance of Payments Division.
6. Appendix C contains historical data for series 25, 96, 118, 119, 548, 559, 561,
588, 721-723, 725-728, and 910.
7.
Appendix G contains cyclical comparisons for series 5, 21, 23, and 51.
8. The text of the latest composite index release is shown on page v. In addition,
data for the composite indexes and other BCD series are available through the following:
A recorded message on (202) 898-2450 (24 hours a day) provides data for the composite indexes and the leading index components immediately upon release (8:30 a.m.). The
message is updated weekly (usually on Monday) to include recently available leading index component data that will be incorporated into the next release.
The Commerce Department's Economic Bulletin Board (EBB) (24 hours a day) provides
electronic transmissionof the composite index release immediately upon release (8:30 a.m.)
for a nominal fee. In addition, by 5:00 p.m. on the day of the release, the EBB will include recent (1985-88) data for all BQ) series plus additional data for series that were
recently revised for earlier years. The EBB can be accessed through a microcomputer,
computer terminal, or word processor. For information, call (202) 377-1986.
Current data for all BCD series are available on the EBB, on computer diskettes, and
on printouts. (All three involve fees.) Each provides the same data: Recent (1985-88)
data for all BCD series plus additional data for series that were recently revised for
earlier years. For information, call (202) 523-0500 or write to the address at the top
of page iii.
9. Future release dates for the composite indexes are August 2, August 30, September 30, November 1, December 1, and December 30.
10. A short discussion of revisions in recent estimates of the composite index of
leading indicators appeared on page 21 of the May 1988 Survey of Current Business.
IV
COMPOSITE INDEXES OF LEADING, COINCIDENT, AND LAGGING
INDICATORS: MAY 1988
The composite index of leading indicators decreased 0.1 percent in May to 192.6
(1967=100), according to preliminary estimates released June 29 by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis.
On the basis of more complete data, the index increased 0.5 percent in April and
0.2 percent in March. A month ago, the Bureau reported estimates that showed the
index increased 0.2 percent in April and 0.2 percent in March. Change in credit
outstanding was the major contributor to the April revision.
Five of 9 indicators available for May contributed to the decline in the index.
They were, ordered from the largest negative contributor to the smallest: stock prices,
contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1982 dollars, average weekly initial
claims for state unemployment insurance, average workweek, and building permits.
Four of 9 indicators made positive contributions. They were, ordered from the
largest positive contributor to the smallest: vendor performance (i.e., companies receiving slower deliveries from vendors), manufacturers1 new orders for consumer goods
and materials in 1982 dollars, change in sensitive materials prices, and money supply
in 1982 dollars.
The composite index of coincident indicators, a monthly approximation of aggregate
economic activity, increased 0.2 percent in May to 175.9 (1967=100). On the basis of
more complete data, the index decreased 0.1 percent in April and increased 0.6 percent
in March.
The composite index of lagging indicators increased 0.1 percent in May to 146.5
(1967=100). On the basis of more complete data, the index increased 0.5 percent in
April and 0.5 percent in March.
The leading index is designed to predict monthly movements in aggregate economic
activity, which is approximated by the coincident index. The lagging index is expected
to move, after a time lag, in the same direction as the coincident index and thus to
confirm the movements in the coincident index.
These concepts are explained more fully in the 1984 edition of Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (price $5.50, stock number 003-010-00127-5), which is available from the
Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC 20402.
More data on the composite indexes can be found on pages 10, 60, and 105 of this
issue of Business Conditions Digest.
Next release date: August 2 for the June composite indexes.
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report is organized into two major parts.
Part l? Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 140 series which
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
part I are also shown in part II to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data,
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government
and defense-related activities, and international
transactions and comparisons.
The two parts are further divided into sections
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
begin with 1962, but those for the composite
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
begin with 1952, and a few charts use a two-panel
format which covers only the period since 1976.
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
shading which indicates periods of recession in
general business activity. The tables contain data
for only the last few years. The historical data for
the various time series are contained in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
In addition to the charts and tables described
above, each issue contains a summary table which
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest. An index appears
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect precise
relationships or order. However, all series
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
the range 1 to 199.
Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday
adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.
MCD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are often
dominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appropriate span over which to observe cyclical
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.)
It is the smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic.
MCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an
MCD of 1.
The charts in this report generally include
centered MCD moving averages for those series
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their
variation about the moving averages and to provide
observations for the most recent months.
Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates used
in this report are those designated by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER). They
mark the approximate dates when, according to
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor
the shading for recessions will be entered on the
charts until after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area
have been designated.
The historical reference turning dates are subject
to occasional reviews by NBER and may be changed
as a result of revisions in important economic
time series. The dates shown in this publication
for the 1948-70 time period are those determined
by a 1974 review. Since then, NBER has designated
turning points for recessions in 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82.
Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in aggregate economic activity—that is, in comprehensive measures of production, employment,
income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
business cycles of historical experience have been
definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
economic systems, conditions, policies, and
outside disturbances.
One of the techniques developed in business
cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects is
the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
identifies certain economic time series as tending
to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
(BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
staff. The present format and content of part I of
BCD are based on the results of that study.
Section A. Composite Indexes and
Their Components
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated according to six major characteristics: Economic
significance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
timing at business cycle peaks and troughs,
conformity to business expansions and
contractions, smoothness, and prompt availability
(currency). A formal, detailed weighting scheme
was developed and used to assess each series by all
of the above criteria. (See articles in the May and
November 1975 issues of BCD.)
The resulting
scores relate to cyclical behavior of the series
during the period 1947-70. This analysis, produced
a new list of indicators classified by economic
process and typical timing at business cycle peaks
and troughs. (See tables on page 2 and text below
relating to section B.)
This information, particularly the scores relating
to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
selection of series to be included in the composite
indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
series from many different economic-process
groups and combine those with similar timing
behavior, using their overall performance scores as
weights. Because they use series of historically
tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
of duplication, composite indexes give more
reliable signals over time than do any of the
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
^ v
Economic
Process
^\
Cyclicalx^
Timing
>.
LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(61 series)
ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(24 series)
1.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)
II.
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)
III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)
IV.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)
V.
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)
VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(3 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Capacity utilization
(2 series)
Orders and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption and
trade (2 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)
Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (2 series)
Profits and profit
margins (7 series)
Cash flows (2 series)
Money (5 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)
Consumption and
trade (4 series)
Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(6 series)
LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(19 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(2 series)
TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(8 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(1 series)
Velocity of money
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)
Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)
Interest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (1 series)
Profits and profit
margins (1 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)
VII.
MONEY AND
CREDIT
(28 series)
Consumption and
trade (1 series)
Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE, ORDERS,
AND DELIVERIES
(13 series)
IV.
V.
VI.
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(19 series)
INVENTORIES
AND INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(18 series)
Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Sensitive commodity
prices (3 series)
Profits and profit
margins (6 series)
Cash flows (2 series)
Money (4 series)
Credit flows
(5 series)
Credit difficulties
(2 series)
Profits and profit
margins (2 series)
Money (1 series)
Velocity of money
(1 series)
Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)
Velocity of money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(4 series)
B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
\
Economic
Process
^\
\
Cyclical \ .
Timing
\.
1.
II.
EMPLOYMENT AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(15 series)
PRODUCTION
AND INCOME
(10 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(1 series)
Industrial
production
(1 series)
Orders and deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption and
trade (4 series)
Formation of business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)
Marginal employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)
Comprehensive
output and income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(3 series)
Capacity utilization
(2 series)
Consumption and
trade (3 series)
Business investment
commitments
(1 series)
Orders and deliveries
(1 series)
Business investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business investment
expenditures
(7 series)
LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)
ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT (C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)
LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
II ll/ivn I v•
iv
(41 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(5 series)
TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED (U)
(1 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of lagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
well-established differences in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through + 1 at peaks and from -1 through
+ 3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes lags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series are prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are other indexes based on leading indicators that
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include many
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident
indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags ( + ) at each of the reference
turning dates covered.
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
11 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined. " L " denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at peaks and troughs,
all but one component of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index "C,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the period since 1970
can be determined by inspection of the charts,
where the recessions of 1973-75, 1980, and
1981-82 are shaded according to the dates of
the NBER reference cycle chronology.
Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
This section covers 112 individual time series,
including the 21 indicators used in the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the
charts in the same manner as described above, but
this section includes series with different timing at
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 18
series at all turns (of the 18, 14 have definite but
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the
indicators of this section by economic process and
cyclical timing is summarized in the two
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is
based on the observed behavior of the series at five
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,
August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1984
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change
Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
series.
This section also records rates of change for the
three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
(quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or for
1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
rates of change for the same aggregates are
generally positively correlated, these two measures
present information about two related but distinct
aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
change, while rates of change measure the degree
as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
at the business cycle turns as well.
Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
This part is divided into six sections which cover
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
measuring various aspects of economic activity.
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
or to selected foreign countries. The represented
variables include incomes, outputs, and
expenditures; prices, earnings, and productivity;
labor resources; government receipts,
expenditures, and defense-related activities; exports and imports; and selected indicators for a few
key foreign countries.
Section A. National Income and Product
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the personal, business,
foreign, and government sectors of the economy.
Section Al shows the gross national product,
final sales, and personal and disposable personal
income. The four major components of the gross
national product—personal consumption
expenditures, gross private domestic investment,
government purchases of goods and services, and
net exports of goods and services—are presented in
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
section A are presented in current as well as
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita
series. The national income and product accounts,
briefly defined below, are described more fully in
the Survey of Current Business, Part I,
January 1976.
Gross national product (GNP) is the market
value of final goods and services produced by the
labor and property supplied by residents of the
United States, before deduction of allowances for
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the
most comprehensive measure of aggregate
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'
income, rental income of persons, dividends,
personal interest income, and transfer payments,
less personal contributions for social insurance.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving. It consists
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax
payments to government.
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings,
and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included.
4
Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed
capital goods purchased by private business and
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
in the physical volume of inventories held by
private business. The former include all private
purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for
tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used
goods are also included.
Government purchases of goods and services
(A4) is the compensation of government employees
and purchases from business and from abroad. It
excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
government, and subsidies. It includes gross
investment by government enterprises but excludes
their current outlays. It includes net purchases of
used goods and excludes sales and purchases of
land and financial assets.
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports
less imports of goods and services. Exports are part
of the national production; imports are not, but are
included in the components of GNP and are
therefore deducted. More detail on U.S.
international transactions is provided in section E.
National income (A6) is the incomes that
originate in the production of goods and services
attributable to labor and property supplied by
residents of the United States. Thus, it measures
the factor costs of the goods and services produced. It consists of the compensation of
employees, proprietors' income, rental income of
persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
Saving (A7) is the difference between income
and expenditures during an accounting period.
Total gross saving includes personal saving,
business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
profits and capital consumption allowances), and
government surplus or deficit.
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).—The
major expenditure components of GNP
(consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of GNP, and the major income
components of national income (compensation of
employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of national income.
Section B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
The important data on price movements include
the monthly consumer and producer price indexes
and their major components. Based largely on
these series are the quarterly price indexes from
the national income and product accounts, notably
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights
reflecting the changing proportions of different
expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are
presented for the period since 1976.
The group of series on wages and productivity
consists of data on average hoi/rly earnings and
average hourly compensation (including earnings
and other benefits) in current and constant dollars,
output per hour of work in the business sector, and
rates of change for most of these measures.
Section C. Labor
Unemployment
Force, Employment, and
This section contains measures of the civilian
labor force and its major components: Total
numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
of worker. Also included are data on participation
rates for a few principal segments of the labor
force.
Section D. Government Activities
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance (surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two levels:
(1) Federal Government and (2) State and local
government. Also shown is a selection of series
from the discontinued Defense
Indicators.
These series measure defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national
economy. Included are series relating to
obligations, contracts, orders, production,
shipments, inventories, outlays, and employment.
These series are grouped according to the time at
which the activities they measure occur in the
defense order-production-delivery process. Series
measuring activities which usually precede production, such as contract awards and new orders,
are classified as "advance measures of defense
activity." Series measuring activities which tend to
coincide with production, such as employment, and
activities which usually follow production, such as
shipments, are classified as "intermediate and final
measures of defense activity."
Section E. U.S. International Transactions
This group includes monthly series on exports
(excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
few selected components of these aggregates. Also
shown are the balances between receipts and
expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
and investment income.
Section F. International Comparisons
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with which we have important trade
relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European
countries in the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1976) provide
important measures of the rates of inflation in the
major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
shown beginning in 1976) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.
Basic Data
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" = September)
Solid line indicates monthly
data. (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages.)
Dotted line indicates anticipated data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are plotted. ("IV" = fourth
quarter)
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).
Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A "
is an arithmetic scale, "scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc,
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.
Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.
Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.
Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.
Rates of Change
Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.
Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.
Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.
Broken line with plotting
points
indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3-or 4-quarter spans.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, o r -
2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Series title and timing classification1
of
Annual
1986
ata2
Percent change
average
1987
3d Q
1987
4th Q
1987
1st Q
1988
Mar.
1988
Apr.
1988
May
1988
Sen $ numt
Basic
Mar.
to
Apr.
1988
Apr.
to
May
1988
3d Q
to
4th Q
1987
-0.1
0.2
0. 1
0.2
-0.5
1.6
0.6
1.0
1 .4
-0.5
910
920
930
940
NA
0.8
NA
NA
NA
0.4
-4.0
1.5
NA
-0.5
NA
0.7
914
915
916
917
4th Q
to
1st Q
1988
1. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Al.
910.
920.
930.
940.
Composite Indexes
Eleven leading indicators
Four roughly coincident indicators
Six lagging indicators....
Ratio, coincident index lo lagging index
0.2
0.9
do
do
do
179.3
164.7
141.9
116. 1
189.4
169.6
142.5
119.0
191.6
170.2
142.2
119.7
190.7
173.0
143. 1
120.9
191 . 1
174.6
145. 1
120.3
191.8
175.8
145.7
120.7
192 . 8
175.6
146.4
119.9
192 . 6
175.9
146.5
120.1
0.5
-0.1
0.5
-0.7
do
do
do
....do
109.5
103.4
119.0
143.9
NA
106. 1
12 1.9
145.8
NA
106.7
125 . 2
144 . 7
NA
107. 1
120.2
146 . 8
NA
106 . 6
NA
147 . 8
NA
106.5
NA
148.7
NA
105.7
NA
15 1 . 8
NA
106.5
NA
NA
NA
-0.8
NA
2 . 1
L,L,L... Hours
do
L,C,L...
L,C,I— Thousands
40.7
3.4
370
41.0
3.7
320
40.9
3.8
303
41.1
3.9
296
41.0
3.8
325
40.9
3.7
304
41 .2
4.0
296
41.1
4.0
307
0.7
0.3
2 .6
-0.2
0.
-3.7
0.5
0.1
2 .3
-0.2
-0. 1
-9.8
1
21
5
L,Lg,U.... Ratio
L,Lg,U.... 1967 = 100
O.5OO
138
0.615
153
0.650
157
0.67 1
160
0.669
156
0.691
158
0.711
158
0.706
161
0.020
0.
-0.005
1.9
0.021
1.9
-0.002
- 2 .5
60
46
U,C,C... A.r., bil. hrs
U,C,C... Millions
do
C,C,C...
L,C,U.... Thousands
185 . 1 7
106.43
99.52
24,558
190.14 189.97
109.23 109.67
102 . 3 1 102 . 6 7
24,784 24,847
193.08
110.27
103.68
25,116
194.60
110.97
104.67
25 , 2 6 0
195 . 0 0 1 9 6 . 6 0
110.90 111.48
105 . 0 2 105 . 2 7
25 , 3 3 0 25 , 4 3 8
196 . 2 9
111.16
105.48
25,446
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.4
-0.2
-0.3
0.2
0.
1.6
0.5
1.0
1.1
0.8
0.6
1.0
0.6
48
42
41
40
0.2 3
90
L,L,L
CCC
Lg.Lg.Lg
L,L L
Leading Indicator Subgroups:
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916 Profitability
917 Money and financial flows
L,L,L...
L,L,L...
L,L,L...
L,L,L...
1967 = 100
B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
Bl. Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
* 1 . Average weekly hours, mfg
21. Average weekly overtime hours, mfg.3
*5. Average weekly initial claims (inverted4)
Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to unemployment3
46. Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
*41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
40. Employees in goods-producing industries
90. Ratio, civilian employment to population
of working age3
Comprehensive Unemployment:
37. Number of persons unemployed (inverted4)
43. Unemployment rate (inverted4)3
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployment rate (inv.4)3
*91. Average duration of unemployment (inverted4)
44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (inv.4)3
B2.
• U,Lg,U
L,Lg,U....
L,Lg,U....
L,Lg,U....
Lg,Lg,Lg....
Lg,Lg,Lg....
Percent
59.94
6 0.77
6 0.91
6 1.10
6 1.33
6 1.23
6 1.52
6 1.20
0.2 9
-0.32
Thousands
8,237
7 .0
2.8
15.0
1.9
7 ,425
6 .2
2 .4
14.5
1.7
7 ,199
6.0
2.3
14.2
1.6
7 ,082
5.9
2 .1
14. 1
1.5
6,928
5.7
2 .3
14.2
1.4
6,801
5 .6
2 .2
13.7
1.4
6,610
5.4
2 .1
13.4
1.3
6 ,783
5 .6
2.1
13.8
1 .3
2.8
0.2
0.1
2 .2
0. 1
-2.6
-0.2
0.
-3.0
0.
1 .6
0. 1
0.2
0.7
0.1
2 .2
0.2
-0.2
-0.7
0. 1
37
43
45
91
44
Percent
do
Weeks
Percent
Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars
52. Personal income in 1982 dollars
*51. Personal income less transfer payments
in 1982 dollars
53. Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, mfg.,
and construction
do
37 1 3 . 3
3093.6
382 1 . 0 3 8 3 5 . 9 3 8 8 0 . 8
3152 . 1 3 1 4 8 . 1 3 1 9 4 . 3
3915.4
32 1 1 . 8
3232.1
3217.0
3217 . 3
-0.5
0.
1 .2
1.5
0.9
0.5
5 0
52
CCC...
do
2639.9
2695 . 1 2 6 9 1 . 3
2737.4
2742.6
2759.8
2747.3
2748.2
-0.5
0.
1.7
0.2
51
CCC...
do
541.6
0.
1. 1
0.6
53
0.4
0.9
-0.2
1.8
2 .4
0.8
1 .4
1.0
1 . 1
1 .2
2 .2
47
73
C,C,C...
CCC...
A.r., bil. dol
Industrial Production:
*47. Industrial production
73 Industrial production durable mfrs
74 Industrial production nondurable mfrs
49. Value of goods output in 1982 dollars
CCC...
CCC...
CL L
CCC...
Capacity Utilization:
82. Capacity utilization rate, mfg3
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials3
L,C,U....
L,C,U....
Percent
L,L,L...
L,L,L...
Bil. dol
B3.
0.19
1977 = 100
do
do
A.r., bil. dol
do
537.2
534.9
540.7
543.8
548 . 4
543.4
543.2
-0.9
125.1
128.4
130.1
1595.0
129.8
133. 1
136.8
16 55 . 2
130.9
133.7
138.6
1666 . 8
133.2
136 . 9
139,7
1689.7
134.5
138.4
141 . 4
1726 . 2
134.7
138.8
141,8
135.5
139.9
142 . 1
136.0
141 .2
141 .8
0.6
0.8
0.2
79.7
78.6
81.0
80.5
81.4
81.0
82 . 3
82 . 9
82.7
82 . 5
82 . 7
82 . 3
99.93
92 . 9 4
107.50
98.06
108.41
98.68
112.56
101.40
114.59
102.07
115.25
102.45
117.37
103.96
80.83
-0.10
361.86
52
84.69
2.33
389.86
61
84.52
86 . 17
3.2 1
2 .67
381.85 389.86
64
69
85 . 8 5
3.51
400.40
68
86.46
1.49
400.40
69
74
49
0.2
0.8
0.2
0.3
0.9
1.9
0.4
-0.4
82
84
114.76
101.29
1.8
1 .5
-2 .2
-2 .6
3.8
2 .8
1.8
0.7
6
7
87.49
4.65
405 . 0 4
62
88.73
0.40
405 . 4 5
66
1.2
3.16
1.2
-7
1.4
-4.25
0.1
4
2.0
-0.54
2 .1
5
-0.4
0.84
2 .7
-1
8
25
96
32
425 . 0 8 4 5 2 . 7 7 4 5 9 . 7 9 4 6 5 . 4 1
4 1 8 . 14 4 3 2 . 5 9 4 3 6 . 7 6 4 3 6 . 9 4
127 . 8
124.0
129.4
128.7
1 1 9 . 7 9 12 5 . 8 8 12 8 . 3 4 12 7 , 5 6
111.98 113.25 115.00 113.48
130.2
148. 3
135.3
129 . 8
94.8
90.6
86.4
93.9
472 . 0 3 4 7 9 . 7 1 4 7 8 . 7 7
4 4 3 . 2 8 447 . 6 8 4 4 5 . 6 4
131.2
131.2
131.6
13 0 . 3 8 13 2 . 2 6 1 3 1 . 7 6
115.89 117.25 116.19
132.8
94.6
91.2
92 . 3
NA
NA
132.0
131.88
11 5 1 7 9
-0.2
-0.5
0.3
-0.4
NA
NA
0.3
0.1
-0^3
1.4
1.5
1.4
2 2
-3.6
3.9
1.2
0.
0.5
— 0.6
-l.*3
-12.5
-8.0
2 .3
6 .8
122 . 6
55 , 3 8 3
124.3
57 , 2 0 4
124.7
59 , 2 0 5
124.7
NA
124.3
NA
0.
NA
-0.3
NA
0.9
-3.7
1 .4
3.3
82.9
83. 1
83. 1
83.4
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
6. Mfrs.' new orders, durable goods
7. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods
*8. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer goods
and materials
25. Change in mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods3
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5
*32. Vendor performance, slower deliveries3 (u)
Consumption and Trade:
56. Manufacturing and trade sales
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54 Sales of retail stores
59. Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
58. Index of consumer sentiment (u)
B4.
L,L,L...
L,L,L...
L,Lg,U....
L,L,I
C,C,C...
CCC...
C,L,C...
C,L,U....
U,L,U....
L,C,C...
L,L,L...
do
do
do
Bil. dol., EOP ...
Percent
Bil. dol
do
1977 = 100
Bil. dol
do
A.r., bil. dol
I Q 1966 =
100.
94.8
56
57
75
54
59
55
58
Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
12. Net business formation
13. New business incorporations
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
*20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1982 dollars
24. Mfrs.' new orders, nondefense capital goods
27. Mfrs.' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense
capital goods
L,L,L...
LrL,l
Number
120.4
58,474
L,L,L...
Bil. dol
31.22
34.46
35.37
36 . 2 1
38.13
36.95
37.58
35 . 7 7
1 .7
-4.8
2 .4
5 .3
10
31. 7 1
29.64
39.05
30.42
39.47
31 . 4 6
42 . 3 9
33.68
40.95
32.48
41 . 7 4
33.56
39.72
31.26
1.9
3.3
-4.8
-6.9
1.1
3.4
7 .4
7. 1
20
24
3 3.50
34.76
35.36
38.56
3 7 . 10
38.26
35.81
3. 1
-6.4
1.7
9 .0
27
1967 = 100
L,L,L...
L,L,I
do
do
34.17
26.56
L,L,L...
do
30.03
12 1 . 1
121.5
57 , 0 5 3 5 7 , 5 0 0
12
13
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data2
Series title and timing classification
Unit
of
measure
1
Annual
1986
Percen change
average
1987
3d Q
1987
4th Q
1987
1st Q
1988
Mar.
1988
Apr.
1988
Mar.
to
Apr.
1988
May
1988
Apr.
to
May
1988 •
3d Q
to
4th Q
1987
4th Q
to
1st Q
1988
I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con.
B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Con.
Business Investment Commitments—Con.:
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and
industrial buildings, floor space
L,C,U.... Mil. sq. ft
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, mfg
U,Lg,U... Bil. dol
5
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.
C,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP
Business Investment Expenditures:
61. Expenditures for new plant and equipment
69. Mfrs.' machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
76. Industrial production, business equipment
86. Presidential fixed investment in 1982 dollars
8 5 . 14
29.81
74.7 1
73.91
77.06
2 1.42
69.72
29 . 37
76 . 8 1
C,Lg,Lg.... A.r., bil. dol...
379.47
388.60
C,Lg,Lg...
do
C,Lg,U.... 1977 = 100..
C,Lg,C. A.r., bil. dol..
391.43
139.5
443.8
4 0 3 . 3 4 4 1 2 . 0 5 422 . 7 3 4 4 0 . 2 8 4 4 8 . 8 5
144.5
148.9
145.8
152 . 3
153.4
4 4 8 . 3 463 . 8 4 6 5 . 6
488 . 3
Residential Construction Commitments and Investment:
28. New private housing units started
*29. Building permits, new private housing units
89. Residential fixed investment in 1982 dollars
L,L,L. A.r., thousands.
L,L,L. 1967 = 100
L,L,L... A.r., bil. dol
1,805
141.2
196 . 4
80.73
1,620
123.0
196 . 4
80.83
33.98
76 . 8 1
3 9 3 . 13 4 0 9 . 3 7
1 ,619
120.3
193.5
1,533
113.9
197 . 0
78.41
NA
69.80
69.98
-5.6
0.3
14.0
2 .8
NA
409 . 7 3
1 ,477
110.4
192 .5
-5 .1
444.7 1
154.7
NA
155 .9
-0.9
0.8
1,529
117.7
1,576
115.6
1 ,384
114.5
3.1
-1.8
NA
0.8
-12.2
-1.0
-3.0
NA
NA
4.1
0.1
2 .6
2 .1
0 .4
4.2
2 .3
4 .9
-5.3
-5 .3
1.8
-3.7
-3.1
-2.3
B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
Inventory Investment:
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars3
*36. Change in mfg. and trade inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars (smoothed6)3
31. Change in mfg. and trade inventories3
38. Change in mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies
on hand and on order3
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71. Mfg. and trade inventories5
70. Mfg. and trade inventories in 1982 dollars5
65. Mfrs.' inventories, finished goods5
*77. Ratio, mfg. and trade inventories to sales in
1982 dollars3
78. Mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order5
..do..
13.8
42 . 9
24.6
60.5
6 1.0
27.50
52.7
27.27
34.6
31.42
do
5 .33
1.7
81.3
37.42
41.0
34.22
26.6
24.02
43.4
-0.29
1.67
2.11
2.17
1.90
1.09
3.29
Lg,Lg,Lg..
Lg,Lg,Lg..
Lg,Lg,Lg..
Bil. dol., EOP .. 657 . 1 2 7 0 9 . 8 5 6 8 9 . 5 1 7 0 9 . 8 5 7 2 0 . 10 7 2 0 . 1 0
do
643.29 669.04 658.31 669.04 676.84 676.84
do
1 0 3 . 2 3 1 0 7 . 5 7 1 0 4 . 7 7 107 . 5 7 1 0 9 . 1 5 1 0 9 . 1 5
723.72
677.56
Lg,Lg,Lg..
Ratio
L,L,L...
L,L,L...
L,L,L...
L,L,I
L,Lg,Lg..
Bil. dol
1.54
1.52
Bil. dol., EOP ... 2 2 6 . 6 4
246.67
35.9
0. 5
NA - 1 0 . 2 0
16.8
NA
NA
NA
4.15
46.7
6.00
-40.3
NA
2.20
NA
0.06
-0.27
0.5
0. 1
0.
NA
NA
NA
3.0
1.6
2.7
0.01
NA
0.01
NA
2.7
1.4
1.2
1.5
1 0 9 . 14
NA
NA
NA
1 .52
1.5 1
1.52
NA
2 4 0 . 1 8 246 . 6 7 2 5 2 . 3 8
252.38
255.67
NA
1.49
292 . 3
0.08
-0.59
297 . 3
0.21
-0.07
301.6
0.36
-2.08
1.7
0.13
0.52
1.4
0.15
-0.92
1.7
-0.44
-0.74
-0.7
-0.89
265.74 262.61
256.12
-1.2
-2 .5
-20.0
1.1
1.51
1.52
1 .3
0.
2.3
B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
98. Change in producer prices, sensitive materials3
23. Spot market prices, raw industrial materials©
*99. Change in sensitive materials prices (smoothed6)3
L,L,L.
U,L,L.
L,L,L.
Percent
Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common s t o c k s ©
L,L,L.
1941-43 = 10.
Profits and Profit Margins:
16. Corporate profits after tax
18. Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars
79. Corporate profits after tax with IVA and CCAdj
80
do
in 1982 dollars
15. Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, mfg.3
26. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
L,L,L. A.r., bil. dol...
L,L,L.
do
L,C,L.
do
L,C,L.
do
L,L,L. Cents
L,L,L. 1977 = 100...
126.8
116.7
179.4
170.0
3.7
99.2
L,L,L. A.r., bil. dol...
L,L,L
do
Cash Flows:
34. Corporate net cash flow
35. Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
63. Unit labor cost, business sector
Lg,Lg,Lg..
68. Labor cost per unit of real gross domestic product,
nonfinancial corporations
Lg,Lg,Lg..
62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg.
a) Actual data
Lg,Lg,Lg..
*b) Actual data as percent of trend3
Lg,Lg,Lg..
64. Compensation of employees as percent of
national income3
Lg,Lg,Lg..
0.43
228.9
0 . 16
1.37
274.5
0.98
2.28
2 88.3
1.50
1.36
293.2
1 .06
0.62
291.2
0.17
236.34 286.83
319.37
255.38
258.12
137.8
123.2
168.4
154.3
4.8
99.6
141.9
126.8
172.0
157.7
5 .5
100.2
145.6
129 . 5
173.0
157.3
4.4
99.5
144.2
127 . 7
173.6
157 . 8
6.3
99 . 6
2 .6
2 .1
0.6
-0.3
-1.1
-0.7
368.9
369.0
388.3
388.0
392 . 2
391.5
397.9
397.8
395 . 3
394.8
1 .5
1 .6
1977 = 100...
166.9
170.3
169.8
17 1.8
171.9
1 .2
Dollars
0 . 7 15
0.728
0.727
0.735
0.734
1.1
1977 = 100...
Percent
137.8
100.4
135.4
98.7
134.6
98. 1
134.9
98.3
135.3
98.6
73.2
72.8
72.8
72.5
72.9
1.32
0.76
0.65
587.0
2366.2
0.29
0.27
0.38
631.8
2430.4
6.362
1.316
6.033
1.309
1967 = 100
Percent
136.5
99.5
134.5
98.0
134.6
98. 1
-1.5
-1.5
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
-0.3
-1.0
-1.4
0.3
0. 3
1.9
0.1
-0.7
-0.8
0.1
-0
1
0.3
0.3
0 .4
B7. Money and Credit
Money:
85. Change in money supply Ml 3
102. Change in money supply M23
104. Change in total liquid assets3
105. Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars
*106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars
Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, GNP to money supply Ml 3
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M23
Credit
33.
112.
113.
*111.
110.
Flows:
Net change in mortgage debt3
Net change in business loans3
Net change in consumer installment credit3
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding3
Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers
Credit Difficulties:
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inverted4)3
L,L,L..
L,C,U..
L,L,L.
L,L,L.
L,L,L.
C,C,C.
C,Lg,C.
do
do
do
3il. dol
do
Ratio
do
L,L,L. A.r., bil. dol...
L,L,L..
do
L,L,L..
do
L,L,L.. A.r., percent..
L,L,L.. A.r., bil. dol...
.. L.L.L..
Percent, EOP .
0.24
0.15
0.54
0.34
0.24
0.76
0.40
0.33
0.76
630. 1 630.5
631.5
2 4 2 4 . 3 2425 . 3 2 4 4 6 . 3
6.065
1.311
6 . 117
1.331
6.134
1.324
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
10.67
8.73 -2 1 .24 3 4 . 6 8
43.56
54.08
41.19
60.40
40.17
65.85
6.1
4.9
9.4
6.6
9.3
625.70 532.18 559.87 642.96 466.36
2.26
2 .47
2.35
2 .47
2 .19
0.46
0.93
0.73
0.82
0.65
0.97
6 31.2
633.9
2454.5 2462.5
1.327
1.317
NA
NA
10.27 116.41
62.29
43.75
12.1
4.1
2 . 19
NA
-0.01
0.39
NA
631.7
2464.1
1.316
0.47
0.09
0.32
0.4
0.3
-0.010
-0.94
-0.43
NA
-0.3
0.1
-0.001
-0.09
-0.10
-0.07
0.1
0.
0.052
0.017
0.020 - 0 . 0 0 7
NA
NA
NA
NA
55.92
20.26 106.14 - 9 6 . 1 5
NA - 2 0 . 2 3
NA - 1 8 . 5 4
8.0
4.5
NA
NA
14.8
NA
NA
NA
0.39
0.52
0.43
0.2
0.9
-0.12
NA
8.88
25.68
-0.1
-27 .5
0.28
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic
Series title and timing classification-
I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS—Con.
B7. Money and Credit—Con.
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted 4 ) 3 ©
94. Borrowings from the Federal Reserve3 ©
Outstanding Debt:
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding5
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
*101. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in
1982 dollars
*95. Ratio, consumer installment credit to
personal income3
Percent change
Annual average
1986
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds rate3 ©
114. Discount rate on new Treasury b i l l s 3 ©
116. Yield on new high-grade corporate bonds 3 ©
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds3 ©
117. Yield on municipal bonds3 ©
118. Secondary market yields, FHA mortgages 3 ©
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans 3 ©
*109. Average prime rate charged by banks 3 ©
data-
L,U,U....
L,Lg,U....
93
836
L,Lg,Lg.... Percent
do..
C,Lg,Lg....
do...
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do...
C,Lg,Lg....
do...
U,Lg,Lg....
do...
Lg,Lg,Lg....
do..
Lg.Lg.Lg....
do..
Lg,Lg,Lg....
6.80
5.97
9.23
8.14
7.32
9.91
8.11
8.33
1987
3d Q
1987
241
756
109
753
6.66
5.83
9.69
8.63
7 .64
10.16
8.09
8.20
6.84
6.03
10.14
9.08
7.93
10.72
8.20
8.40
4th Q
1987
245
7 82
6.92
6.00
10.37
9.24
8.20
10.76
8.47
8.87
1st Q
1988
42
1,077
6.66
5 .76
9.64
8.61
7 .64
10.10
8.37
8.59
Mar.
1988
Apr.
1988
May
1988
-823
1,752
-2 ,134
-1,550
2,993
2 ,578
6.58
5 .69
9.68
8.61
7.74
10.28
6.87
5 .92
9.92
8.91
7.81
10.46
7.09
6.27
10.25
9.24
7.91
10.84
8.50
8.50
8.84
Mar.
Apr.
Apr.
1988
to
May
1988
1,311
1,241
-584
-415
-136
0.29
0.23
0.24
0.30
0.07
0. 18
0.22
0.35
0.33
0.33
0.10
0.38
0.
0.34
0.08
-0.03
0.23
0.16
0.27
0.04
0.27
0.47
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol., EOP . 571.83 613.02 602.98 613.02 629.48 629.48 633. 13
NA
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Bil. dol
349.71 364.12 359.04 364.46 376.49 378.88 388.58 3 9 0 . 2 7
2 .6
Lg,Lg,Lg....
1.7
349.15 354.26 346.34 349.88 359.59 361.18 367.28 366.45
Lg,Lg,Lg.... Percent
15.57
15.77
15.91
15.81
16.01
15.99
16.07
114.1
109.6
117 .5
113.6
117 .9
114.4
118.7
115.4
119.1
116.1
116.5
117 . 1
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.4
0.3
109.0
100.2
100.0
87.7
99.1
109.7
101.4
113.5
102 .8
102.6
93.7
101.5
111.7
103.6
114. 1
103.7
103.4
96. 1
102.3
112 .0
104.4
114.9
104.2
104.1
95.2
103.5
112.1
104.3
115.5
104.7
104.5
94.2
104.4
112.9
104.3
115.7
104.9
104.7
94. 1
104.8
113.2
104.6
116.5
105.8
105.6
95.3
105.6
113.4
105.1
117.0
106.5
106. 1
96.4
106 .2
113.8
105 .6
169.4
173.5
174.0
175.4
176.8
177 .0
177 .8
178.8
95 .0
181.2
100.2
109.5
107.5
94.0
186.3
99.4
110.5
108.4
93.7
187. 1
99.3
111.3
109. 1
93.7
188.7
99.2
110.9
93.7
190.2
99 .2
111.8
109.8
93.5
93.5
93.6
3d Q
to
4th Q
1987
0.6
NA
0.4
-0.2
29
4th Q
to
1st Q
1988
203
295
-0.26
-0.24
-0.73
-0.63
-0.56
-0.66
-0.10
-0.28
1.7
1.5
2 .7
1.0
2 .8
3.3
NA
0.08
NA
-0.10
0. 7
0 . 3
117.5
0.5
-0.1
0.3
-0. 1
0.4
0.7
0.5
1.2
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.9
0.
0.7
0.5
0.7
0.6
0.
0.5
0.5
0.4
-0.9
-1.1
1.2
0. 1
-0.1
0.9
0.7
0.
0.20
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
B l . Price Movements
310.
320.
320c.
322.
330.
335.
331.
332.
333.
334.
Implicit price deflator for gross national product
Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U) © . .
Change in CPI-U (S/A) 3
Consumer price index for all urban consumers, food
Producer price index (PPI), all commodities ©
PPI, industrial commodities ©
PPI, crude materials for further processing
PPI, intermediate materials, supplies, and components
PPI, capital equipment
PPI, finished consumer goods
1982 = 100
1982-84 = 100
Percent
1982-84 = 100
1982 = 100
do
do
do
do
do
0.7
0.9
0.9
1.3
0.8
0.2
0.5
B2. Wages and Productivity
340. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
341. Real average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector
346. Real average hourly compensation, nonfarm business sector
370. Output per hour, business sector
358. Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
do
do
do
do
do
108.8
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.
0. 1
0.
0.
0.9
0. 8
0.
0. 8
0.9
-0.1
-0.4
-0.3
C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
441.
442.
37.
444.
445.
446.
447.
Civilian labor force
Civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age..
Number unemployed, full-time workers
Civilian Labor Force Participation Rates:
451. Males 20 years and over3
452. Females 20 years and over
453. Both sexes 16-19 years of age3
Millions
do
Thousands...
do
do
do
do
Percent,
.do.
.do.
117.83
109.60
8,237
3,751
3,032
1 ,454
6 ,708
78. 1
55.5
54.7
119.86 120.05 1 2 0 . 5 7 1 2 1 . 1 4 1 2 0 . 9 0 1 2 1 . 3 2 1 2 0 . 9 8
1 1 2 . 4 4 112.85 1 1 3 . 4 9 1 1 4 . 2 1 1 1 4 . 1 0 1 1 4 . 7 1 1 1 4 . 2 0
7 ,425
7 , 199 7 , 0 8 2 6 , 9 2 8 6 , 8 0 1 6 , 6 10 6 , 7 8 3
3,369
2 ,709
1 ,347
5 ,979
3,233
2 ,671
1,296
78.0
56.2
54.7
77.9
56.3
54.9
5 ,767
3 , 124
2 , 6 15
1 ,342
5 ,670
3,105
2 ,542
1 ,282
5 ,550
3,089
2,411
1 ,301
5 ,498
2 ,909
2 ,442
1,259
5 ,302
3,072
2 ,481
1,230
5 ,418
77.9
78.0
56.7
54.9
77.9
56.6
53.9
78.2
56.7
54.2
77.9
56.4
54.0
56.5
55.1
0.3
0.5
-0.3
-0.4
0.4
0.6
0.5
0.6
1.6
-1.6
-3.4
-2 .1
-3.2
-3.b
-2 .3
I ./.
3.5
-1.7
-4.5
-2.1
0.3
0.1
0.3
-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
0.
0.2
0.2
-0.2
-2 .8
-5.8
1.3
2.6
5 .6
-2.2
-0.6
-2.8
0.1
0.2
D. Government Activities
D l . Receipts and Expenditures
500.
501.
502.
510.
511.
512.
Federal Government surplus or deficit3
Federal Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures
State and local government surplus or deficit
State and local government receipts.
State and local government expenditures,
517.
525.
548.
557.
570.
564.
Defense Department gross obligations incurred
Defense Department prime contract awards
Mfrs.' new orders, defense products
Industrial production, defense and space equipment..
Employment, defense products industries
Federal Government purchases for national defense .
-24.4
1 .6
Ar bil dol
do
do
do
do
do
-2 04 .7 - 1 5 1 . 4 - 1 3 5 . 8 - 1 6 0 . 2 - 1 4 3 . 1
954.0
827.4 9 1 5 . 7 9 2 3 . 0 9 3 7 . 6
1032.0 106 7 . 1 1 0 5 8 . 8 1097 . 8 1097 . 0
37 . 9
45 . 6
46 . 5
56 . 8
44 . 0
6 18.8 6 5 1 . 1 6 5 7 . 6 6 6 3 . 5 6 8 2 . 5
56 1.9 6 07 . 1 6 1 1 . 1 625 . 6 6 3 6 . 9
Mil. dol
do
29 ,988 3 0 , 8 1 2 3 2 , 8 5 0 2 8 , 186 31 , 9 9 8 31 ,595 3 3 , 1 7 2
11,998 12 , 0 3 2 1 3 , 3 8 6 1 0 , 6 3 6 1 0 , 2 8 4 11,901 1 6 , 2 2 2
9 ,099 9 , 2 1 0 9 , 5 1 9 9 , 5 9 6 9 , 155 9 ,804 9 , 9 8 8
189.2
189.3
190.5
182 .0 1 8 8 . 9
189.8 1 8 9 . 1
1 ,589
1 ,592
1,594
1 ,589
1,585
1 ,587 1 , 5 8 8
299.0
300.4
299.8
277.8 2 9 5 . 2
8,328
188.7
2 3 , 107 2 5 , 2 9 4 26 ,876 2 6 , 2 1 4
3,030
2 ,491 2 , 8 6 7
3,030
NA
NA
NA
5 ,050
35 , 9 5 6 3 6 , 2 1 0 3 6 , 6 4 4 34,381
NA
NA
3,410
NA
NA
NA
NA
6,559
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3.7
-8.6
0.9
2 .4
17.1
1 .7
-0. 1
7 .7
2 .9
1 .8
D2. Defense Indicators
do
1977 = 100...
Thousands
A.r., bil. dol..
NA
NA
NA
5.0
36.3
1.9
-0.4
0.1
NA
NA
-16.6
-0.2
NA
-14.2
-20.5
0.8
13.5
-3.3
-4.6
0. 1
0.6
0.2
0.1
0 .3
0.2
6.4
9.5
15.1
E. U.S. International Transactions
El. Merchandise Trade
602.
604.
606.
612.
614.
616.
Exports, excluding military aid shipments
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Imports of automobiles and parts
Mil. dol
do
do
do
do
do
18,930
2 , 164
3,907
30,453
2,894
5 ,578
2 1 , 176
2 ,400
4,428
33,853
3,471
21 , 7 0 8
2 ,700
4 ,466
34,566
4 ,046
5 ,896
5,705
-2 .5
0.
NA
-6.2
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
-7 .7
13.1
4.0
-15.7
15.0
NA
0.7
NA
NA
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data ?
Percent change
Unit
Series title
e
Annual average
of
2dQ
measure
4th Q
1986
1st Q
1987
2dQ
1987
3d Q
1987
4th Q
1987
1st Q
1988
to
3d Q
1987
1985
1986
1987
-25.02
90.14
115.17
-30.54
53.98
84.52
22.21
15.72
-30.88
93.76
124.64
-36.14
55.99
92 . 1 3
22.53
16.74
-35.13
106.21
141.34
-40.07
62.39
102 . 4 6
25.94
20.84
-33.12
94.41
127.53
-38.53
56.64
95.17
21.67
16.35
-34.66
98.91
133.56
-39.87
56.79
96.66
24.79
19.72
-37.73
100.35
138.08
-39.55
59.86
99.42
22 . 4 3
20.74
-38.99 -29.15
106.32 119.25
145 . 3 0 1 4 8 . 4 0
-39.66 -41.19
64.90
68.01
104.57 1 0 9 . 2 0
23.29
33.25
22.22
20.71
-36.60
118.85
155.45
-35.94
74.67
110.62
25 . 1 1
25.71
- 1 .26
5.9
5 .2
-0.11
8.4
5 .2
3.8
7.1
4010.3
3607.5
15,073
3600.1
2841.1
2542.2
10,622
4 2 3 5 . 0 4488.5
3713.3 3821.0
1 5 , 3 6 8 15 , 6 7 2
3699.5
3778.1
3022 .1 3181.7
2 6 4 5 . 1 2677.2
10,947
10,980
4288.1
3731.5
15,388
3745.8
3061.6
2656.7
10,956
4377.7
3772.2
15,525
3724.5
3125.9
2674.6
11,008
4445.1
3795.3
15,588
3756.3
3130.6
2645.5
10,865
4524.0
3835.9
15,715
3811.4
3195.3
2674.7
10,958
46 0 7 . 4
3880.8
15,859
3820.3
3275.0
2713.8
11,090
4665.1
3915.4
15,962
3854.3
3322 .6
2737.4
11,160
1.8
1.1
0.8
1.5
2.1
1.1
0.9
2629.4
2352.6
368.7
352.7
913.1
849.5
1347.5
115 0 . 4
2799.8
2450.5
402.4
383.5
939.4
877 .2
1458.0
1189.8
641.6
636. 1
631.6
628.7
10.0
7.4
671.0
654.0
655 .2
640.2
15.7
13.8
717.5
687.6
671.5
644.7
46.1
42.9
660.2
631.0
666.6
645 .4
-6.4
-14.4
699.9
671.8
648.2
624.2
51.6
47.6
702 . 6
673.7
662.3
634.7
40.3
39.0
707.4
681.9
684.5
657.3
22,9
24.6
760.2
723. 1
690.8
662.6
69.4
60.5
762.7
741.8
704.9
680.8
57.8
61.0
0.7
1.2
3.4
3.6
-17.4
-14.4
818.6
726.9
353.9
324.2
464.7
402 .7
869.7
754.5
366.2
332.5
503.5
422 . 1
922.8
771.7
379.4
336.0
543.4
435.8
886.3
771.8
368.6
344.6
517.7
427.1
896.2
759.6
366.9
327.3
529.3
432.3
917 . 1
766.7
379.6
332.6
537.6
434.1
929.0
771.7
382 . 1
336.3
546.9
435.4
948.8
788.9
388.9
347.6
559.9
441.3
945.1
766.0
375.1
322.7
570.0
443.2
1.3
0.7
0.7
1.1
1.7
0.3
-79.2
-108.2
369.9
365.3
449 .2
473.6
-105.5
-145.8
376.2
377.4
481 .7
523.2
-1 19.6
-135.5
427.8
425.8
547 . 4
561 . 3
-116.9
-151.8
383.3
388.3
500.2
540.1
-112.2
-135.2
397.3
397.8
509.5
533.0
-118.4
-132.7
416.5
414.5
534.8
547.2
-123.7
-138.4
439.2
437.1
562.9
575.6
-124.3 -111.1
-135.8 -120.3
485.8
458. 1
477.4
453.5
596.9
582 .4
597.8
589 .3
-5.3
-5.7
5 .5
5 .5
5 .3
5 .2
3229.9
2370.8
257 . 3
9.0
277.6
315.3
3422.0 3636.0 3471.0
2504.9 2647.6 2552.0
327.4
297 . 8
289.8
19.3
18.4
16.7
304.7
281.1
284.4
337. 1
321.7
326. 1
3548.3
2589.9
320.9
20.0
294.0
323.6
3593.3
2623.4
323.1
18.9
296.8
331. 1
3659.0
2663.5
322.7
17.3
314.9
340.6
3743.5
2713.5
342.7
20.9
313.0
353.3
3793.9
2765.0
338.5
22.2
310.9
357.3
1.8
1 .5
-0.1
-8.5
6.1
2 .9
554.3
545.3
138.4
-129.5
4 .4
551.3
546.7
93.2
-88.6
3.0
559.3
559 . 8
88.8
-89.3
2.8
595.9
562.6
155.7
-122 .3
4.8
625 . 3
566.8
155 . 9
-97.5
4.7
3d Q
to
4th Q
1987
4th Q
to
1st Q
1988
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES-Con.
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
667
Balance on goods and services3
668
Bil. dol
Exports of goods and services
do
669. Imports of goods and services
do
622. Balance on merchandise trade 3
do
618
Merchandise exports adjusted
do
620
Merchandise imports, adjusted
do
651
Income on U S investment abroad
do
652. Income on foreign investment in the United States
do
-7.45
-0.3
4.8
5.25
9.8
1.3
-24.5
24.1
667
668
669
622
618
620
651
652
1.3
0.9
0.6
0.9
1.5
0.9
0.6
200
50
217
213
224
225
227
0.4
-0.6
-5.4
-5.5
0.7
-0.1
1.8
0.6
1.5
0.9
2 .7
2 .7
0.5
0.4
1.8
0 .8
230
231
232
233
236
238
237
2 39
7.5
6.0
0.9
0.8
46.5
35.9
0.3
2.6
2.0
2 .7
-11.6
0.5
240
241
242
243
245
30
-0.4
- 2 .9
-3.5
-7.2
1 .8
0.4
260
261
262
263
266
267
-0.6
2 .6
4.3
3.8
3.5
2 .4
13.2
15.5
6.0
5.3
2.5
1.4
250
255
252
256
253
257
2 .3
1.9
6.2
20.8
-0.6
3.7
1.3
1.9
-1.2
6.2
-0.7
1.1
220
280
282
284
286
288
4.9
0.7
0. 1
24.8
-0.1
290
295
292
298
293
9.84
12 . 2
2 .1
-1.53
4.8
4.4
42.8
-6.8
A. National Income and Product
Al. GNP and Personal Income
200. Gross national product
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars
A r , bil dol
do
217. Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
A r, dollars
213.
Final sales in 1982 dollars
A r, bil dol
224
Disposable personal income
225. Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dollars
do
do
A.r., dollars
1.8
1.2
0.9
0.2
2.5
1.5
1.2
A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
A r , bil dol
230. Total
231.
do
Total in 1982 dollars
232. Durable goods
do
233. Durable goods in 1982 dollars
do
236. Nondurable goods
do
238. Nondurable goods in 1982 dollars
do
237. Services
do
239
do
Services in 1982 dollars
2967.8 2858.6 2 8 9 3 . 8 2943.7 3011.3 3022.6 3068.3
2 4 9 7 . 2 2 4 8 0 . 5 2 4 7 5 . 9 2 4 8 7 . 5 2 5 2 0 . 7 2 5 0 4 . 6 2527 .9
413.7
419.8
396. 1
409.0
413.0
424.0
436.8
388.2
399.0
375.9
385 . 4
384.5
394.7
406.9
982.9
946.3
969.9
982.1
993. 1
998.4
986.4
878. 1
880.3
883.2
879.0
874.6
878.1
875.7
1 5 7 1 . 2 1492 . 4 1 5 2 7 . 7 1 5 5 2 . 6 1 5 8 8 . 1 1 6 1 6 . 5
1645.9
12 3 0 . 9 12 0 1 . 1 12 1 6 . 9 12 2 3 . 1 12 3 8 . 1 1 2 4 5 . 6 12 5 5 . 1
2 .3
1.3
6.8
5 .6
0.4
-0.4
2.3
1 .2
A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240. Total
do
241.
do
Total in 1982 dollars..
242. Fixed investment
do
243.
do
Fixed investment in 1982 dollars
245. Change in business inventories'
30. Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars
do
do
A4. Government Purchases
of Goods and Services
260. Total
do
261.
Total in 1982 dollars
do
262
Federal Government
do
263
Federal Government in 1982 dollars
do
266. State and local government
do
267. State and local government in 1982 dollars
do
2.1
2 .2
1.8
3.4
2 .4
1 .4
A5. Foreign Trade
250. Net exports of goods and services3
do
255. Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars3
do
252
do
Exports of goods and services
256. Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
do
253. Imports of goods and services
do
257. Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
do
A6. National Income and Its Components
220
do
National income
280. Compensation of employees
do
282. Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
do
284. Rental income of persons with CCAdj
do
286. Corporate profits before tax with IVA and CCAdj
do
288
do
Net interest
A7. Saving
290. Gross saving
do
295. Business saving
do
292
Personal saving
do
298
Government surplus or deficit3
293
Personal saving rate3
do
Percent
531.3
532.0
537.2
549.2
127 . 1
130.6
-132.9 -147 .8
4.5
4.3
565.2
553.6
119.0
-107.4
3.7
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by ( u ) , that appear to contain no seasonal
movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles and sources, see "Titles and Sources of
Series" at the back of this issue. NA, not available, a, anticipated. EOP, end of period. A.r., annual rate. S/A,
seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA, inventory valuation adjustment. CCAdj, capital consumption
adjustment.
:
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all
turns: L, leading: C, roughly coincident; Lg, lagging; U, unclassified.
515.3
544.4
109.0
-138.1
3.6
1.5
2.4
-4.7
-0.7
-0.2
6.5
0.5
75.3
-33.0
2.0
' For a few series, data shown here are rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual
figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
3
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
' Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of
the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the
period.
6
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed on the terminal month of
the span.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
Chart A l . Composite Indexes
July May
P T
Aug. Apr
P T
Apr. Feb.
P T
Jan. July July Nov.
P T P T
Dec. Nov
P T
I Index: 1967-1091
1
'•
> • • • !
-
:
'
.j.1
910. Index of eleven leadhg
(series 1 , 5 , 8 , 1 9 , 2 0 , 2 9 % 36,99,106
-
,
.
i.'
•
.
' ^
T
i .'
"
: r ^rl;: l > J i
/
t
#
.
v
/
-8
2IPP5
.•••
.
.
.
f
3 ;
.-•
.
.
;
•
;
' . • •
'
.'.•
•
,
''.
•;
•
:
•
!
•
•
;
'
•
'
•
•
•
130- . . .
.
.
.
.
.
,
.
•
. ;
120110100 -
-11
-2J
920. Index of four i
incident i
(series 41,47,51,!
/
11010090-3
-2
• : . .
930. Index of six I
(series 62,77,9)1
, 101,109)
nfi
, '
miir
•
-
< ;
•
,
«
.
•
•
•
•
:
'
'
100+13
90-
• ••
.
'
••
•
70-
60•
;
•
•
•
•
•
50-
+11
1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 8 8 1 9 8 9
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) in months from reference turning dates.
1
Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12. which has been suspended from the current index.
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.
10
JUNE 1988 B O )
H
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart Al. Composite Indexes—Continued
li.lv M.-jy
?
T
915. Inventory investment and purchasing (series 8,32,36, 99)
120 -i
110100 -
90
J
140 916. Profitability (series 19, 26, 80)
2
A II
^
• • >
'•••':.
-71
-77
_
'"
)
]
•
.
.
-
:
~*~' "•
"—~ A\
:
. •/ S\*.
>= :.' /
/^
100 -
IT
f*
i
Nnj-y
90-
917. Money and financial flows (series 104, 106, 111)
'
'•' '• -'
H
-20
-s
-12
/
120 110-
C-
-IU
130 -
160150140130 120-
~1
^
110-
; •
100-
V ••
-ft
*• / ;
- 2 . ;
:
- 2 5 :•;
r
..-.
90-
S
80-
:
• • • • /
70-M
140-1
940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
100 90 J
1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
NOTE: Numbers entered on thfi chart indicate length of leads \-\ and \ap,s i + i in months from rofrronco turning dates
Current data for these series am shown on page 60.
JUNE 1988
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
I
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
i
Chart A2. Leading Index Components
Jan July l.j'y Nov.
PI
F T P
PI
J
Averanaceklv hours of production or nonsupenris|| workers, m a n u k a
42-i
41403938-
if initial claims for unemployment
State progra*|(lriousands-irtyerted f f e )
200 300400500600 700100 -
Macturers' new orders in 1982
material industries (biLdoL
90807060504030-
jndor performance, percent of
hring slower H k r i e s (percent)
100-
755025-
4540-
i Contracts and orders for plant and
1
1982 dollars (W. dot)
3530252015-
10-1
1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
Current data for these series are shown on pages 6 1 , 64, and 66.
12
JUNE 1988
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Continued
i i . M,iy
?
Al.j; At!
I
=
T
A;;'
"•
i--u
•
29. New private housing units authorized by local
b u p n g permits (index: 1 9 6 7 ^ 100)
J
60
36. Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on hand and on order in 1982 dollars, smoothed' (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
J_LLL
99. Change in sensitive materials prices, smoothed1 (percent)
HT
0- 1
- •
-3350300-
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10)
a
250-
J
r^r ^
200-
1
150Sl
J
100-
/
50?800-
5
2400-
106. Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)
?000 1600-
111. Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
(ann. rate, percent) h,L,L j
+ 30+ »0+ 10-
^uW^
0-10-
1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2.2,1) placed on the terminal rnonlh of the span.
Current data for those series are shown on pages 67. 68. 69. 71. and 7?.
Kill
JUNE 1988
13
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
July May
P
T
Aug.Apr.
P
T
Apr. Feb.
P
Dec Nuv
P
T
T
N,iv
Via;
F
Jan. July July
P I P
Nov
T
41. Employees on nonagricuipl payrolls ( n i
51. Personal income § p transfer payrseflts in
1982 dollars (
7
1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62, 63. and 65.
14
JUNE 1988
inn
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Continued
Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
Ji.ly May
P I
A.,,: A P -
P
r
'jr. N-
Apr - . - • .
l.-ir
'Liv
F I
F 1
,l;i,
P
N.)
i
91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted scale)
161820-
77. Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales m
1982 dollars (ratio) [
221.81.71.61.51.4-
2. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing—actual data
as percent of trend (percent) | Lg.Lg
. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)
181. Commercial and industrial loans outstaraftlg in 1982 dollars (bil. dol.)
200 150 18-
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income (pMSBt)
ii
16141210-
/?
1952 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 881989
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62. 68. 70. and 73.
JUNE 1988
15
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment
[•;•
F
N.'.v
T
| Marginal Employment Adjustments]
42 -,
1.'Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers,
;;|:' manufacturing (houii) .; | L,L,L |
4140-
39-
38
J
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing (hours)
3-
2 J
A/»
•5.; Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance,
SiiState programs (thffliiawds—inverted scale) h C LI
200-1
300-
1.4-
0; 60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to number
|;
of persons unemployed (ratio)
1.0- t
0.6- '
0.2;ip|iHelp-wanted advertising in newspapers (index: 1967 = 100)
?;
180 160-
z
140-
(
1201008060-
1962 6 3 6 4 65 66 67 6 8 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 8 0 81 8 2 8 3 8 4 8 5 86 8 7 8 8 1989
Current data for these series are shown on pa«e 6 1 .
16
JUNE 1988
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
4§*t*>yeetoursin
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on pages 61 and 62.
JUNE 1988
17
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B l . Employment and Unemployment—Continued
Dec. Nov.
P
T
Nov
P
Mar.
T
Jan. July
P T
July
P
Nov.
T
m
[Comprehensive Unemployment |
37. Number of persons unemployed (millions—inverted scale)
5-
79111343. Unemployment rate (percent—inverted scale)
4567891011-
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs (percent—inverted scale)
23-
I_
4567-
91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks—inverted
810121416182022-
Zi.
44. IMemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over (percent—inverted scale)
012-
V
3-
\Z
4-
1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on page 62.
18
JUNE 1988
ltd*
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B2. Production and Income
F
I
T
[Comprehensive Output and Income]
transfer payments in 1982 d$prs
1962 63
64 65
66
67 68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75 76
77
78 79
80
81
82
83 84
85 86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on page 63.
IU II
JUNE 1988
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B2. Production and Income—Continued
| Industrial Production |
ial production (inter ©77=100)
S
..,_,
j ^ i =s..3Sfc, m
73. Industrial
(index: 1 9 7 7 = 1
nondurable manufactins
49. H i e of goods output I
. rate, bil. dol.)
|Capacity Utilization!
, manufacturing (percent) ft.C.U
84. Capacity u b l B | i ( | i | t e , materials (percent) [ j y ;
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
20
JUNE 1988
IICII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
\'K-:
tfcv
'i:'-.
F
T
i>
l-!\
V-.l
I
F
. ,
•
l.i
F
140-
| Orders and Deliveries |
7. Manufacturers' new Oftiers in 1982 dollars, durable goods
industries (bil. doU||0i;''jl.,L,L|
r^\
\
120100 8060-
6. Manufacturers' new ordBRi in current dollars, : f^l \
durable goods i n d u s t r i e s dol.) v
40^Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, consumer
110-j
10090807060-
25. Change in manuf^tfrers' unfilled order^i^ufsble goods industries f, ^
ll
(bil. dot.; MCDtfsiig avg.-4-term) j i p ^ ^
^"
s •li^'i'
96. Manufi|$Fers' unfilled orderi|||SBe goods industries
[L,Lg,U|
/
;||i|Si
180-
140-
100 -
60-
32. VendorpSiormance, percent of companies
receivint3#»er deliveries (percent)
100 - i
7550-1
25-
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on pape 64.
KCII
JUNE 1988
21
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Continued
J-.
F
N v
T
550 •
| Consumption and Trade]
500 §7. Manufacturing and Hade sales
in 1982 dollars ( b i M
450 •
400 350 300 250 -
- - . - • '•• " v - ^
20056. Manufacturing and trade safes in current dollars
(bil-dol.)
[ c J i l
150 -
75. IndustriaVpreduction, consumer goods
59. Sales of | 9 p l stores in 1982 dollars (bil. doL)
54. Sales of retail stores iff»rent dollars (bil.
160 140 -
tt.
55. Personal c o A ^ p t i p n expenditures,
automobiles,'^a(3rei. rate, bil. dol.)
60-
40-
20 J
110 —
100 -
58. Index of consurrw sentiment (1st Q 1966 = 100)
\
%t^
111
1962 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 1989
Current rjata for these series are shovvii on paye 65
22
JUNE 1988
90807060-
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
160 •
Formation of Business Enterprises!
140 120 100 —
12. Net business formation (index: 1967 = 100) | L , L , L |
.'0 •
6050-
-v"*/S-i'
13. New business incorporations (thousands)
40-
—
454035-
[Business Investment Commitments|
3025-
20-
15-
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in current dollars' (bil. do).)
20. Contracts and orders for plant aid equipment
in 1982 dollars (bil. dot.)
40-
27. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense
capital goods industries (bil. dol.)
3530-
20-
15-
24. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense
capital goods industries (bitdol.) f u
10 J
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial
buildings (mil. sq. ft. of floor space; MOD moving avg.—5-term)
110100 9080706050-
1962
53
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
1
Fins |<. a copyn»ht(?d sprios uspd by permission; it may r 1 0 t b'-' rt'pioducod without AMtt<;n permission from PVICG'.TWHIII Iritormfltion Systfms Ooiripany. F.W. Dodljt' Division.
Current dr'itii for Uu'sy senys aic shown on pai'.os 6f> ,inij G6.
JUNE 1988
?3
CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
•.•-
F
.1.1,
•
l . i l ,
P
N - i v
I
97. Backlog of capital appropnattaJS, 1,000 manufacturing
corporations, Q (bil. tW.)
11. Jifpii approved capital
tignrations, Q (bil. dol.)
julu
100. ExpendrN^|t 1982 dolars for new plant anllqu
Q
1 Business Investment Expenditures |
H
61. Expendfturei^urrent dolars for n«#ffent and
equipment,^gj^nn.rate,bil.doi.) ,''
69. Machinery and
business consTrwap expenonures
tadostnal production, business
1962 63
64 65
66
67 68
69
70
71
72
73 74
75 76
77
78 79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.
24
JUNE 1988
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Continued
| Business Investment Expenditures—Con, j
Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in 1982 dflfcri (am. rate, bil. dot.)
86. TotaLQ |C,Lg,C|
88. Producers' durable equipment, Q I C.Lc.C
87. Structures, Q | l
I Residential Construction Commitments anjljlnvestment |
28. New priv
units started (am. rate, mipns)
*: ^
bjr local building permits
29. New prhiatf housing units
(index: I J i H l O O )
88. Gross private reskgfp fixed investment in
® 1982 dollars, Q ( a n f a t e , bil. do).)
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current dat.1 for these series are shown on page 67
IECII
JUNE 1988
25
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
[inventory Investment]
30. Oange in business inventarte in 1982 dollars, Q (am. rat
36JS|»nge in manufacturiB|»f trade inventories on hand
Ijjfer in 1982 dollars ( f l i t rate, bil. dol.; moving avg.—4-
trade inventories
ng avg.—6-term)
materiab and supplie
HCD moving avg.—4-term)
in manufactu
and on order
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
1
This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1.2.2.1) placed on the terminal month of the span
Current data for these series are shown on pa<>e 68
26
JUNE 1988
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Continued
I;.-*
N.
'>.
V.!-
P i
H
800-
1 Inventories on Hand and on OrdeT]
700-
70. Manufacturing and irate inventories in 1982 dollars ( b p t M . )
600 -
500400-
71. Manufacturing antf I f a * inventories
in current dollars (JiB. dol.) X
60-
5040-
30-
. Ratio, manufactur||it«i trade inventories to sales in J982 dot|r|S;i
(ti)
1.81.71.61.51.4300260-
78i Manufacturers' inventories,materials and supplies on hand
$j»d on order ( b i l - d l l l
220180-
140-
100 -
60 -I
1962 63
64
65
Bill JUNE 1988
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
27
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
IK
Nc.
N;v.
V
1
. - ' :
•
;
*
98. Change in producer prices for sensitive c n j g | ^ intermedate materials
!
_ (percent; M C O , m o v i n ^ v g . - ^ « n X H
I Sensitive Commodity Prices |
+ 4+ 20-2-4-6-1
+ 4+ 20-2-4-
34030026022018038l)-i
340300 260 220180140-
100 -
60-1
240200160120-
80-
16. Corporate profits anerjax in
(ann. rate, oil. dol.) E T T
40->
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
1
This is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1.2,2.1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
2
Beginning with data for June 1981, this is a copyrighted series used by permission, it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau. Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
28
JUNE 1988
IICII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
Jan ; j ,
Ce.
P
P 7
1
:i.:-,
V-.
P
1
| Profits and Profit Margins—Con.
Corporate profits
1982 dollars, Q (
280240200-
i with IVA and CCAdj in
1601208079. Corporate profits after ffi with
current dollars, Q ( a m . M e , biL!
40 J
fits after tax to corporate da
121086-
81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after t j H t h l V A and CCAdj j
to corporate domestic income, Q ( p e r a i i l M M
4of sales, manufacturing c
753-
implicit price d f H | l » unit labor cost, nonfarm
, Q (index: 197
102100 989694500net cash flow in
, bil. dol.)
400300200\
34. Corporate net cash flowUcu
\
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
100-"
(am. rate, ml. dol.) rr
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on pages 69 and 70.
Kill
JUNE 1988
29
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Continued
[>:
V".,-
?
1
'•' •'
\
P
•
[
P
80
81
T
[Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
30
JUNE 1988
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit
85. Change in n*90*Pm
Ml
(percent; M C g » g avg.-6-term)
£1)2. Change in
i
(percent; MC0
PHiwF
ent; MCD moving a v g . - 6 - M )
L
in 1982 dollars (bil. doL)
107. Ratio, gross national pftdutt to money simply M l , Q (
I Velocity of Money |
108, Ratio, personal income >t|!?nney supply M2 (ratio)
1962 63
64 65
66
67 68 69
70
71
72
73 74
75 76
77
78 79
80
81
82
83 84
85 86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on page 71.
JUNE 1988
31
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
" I
[Credit Flows
f
T
33. Nefcetenge in mortgage debt held by financial institutions
a n | p insurance companies {am. rate, bil. doL)-
112. Net change in business bans (ann. rate, bil. do).;
|
SilCD moving a v g . - 6 ^ f l H
| ^ J Jj.
Vy»:
..&»*•.••'&&&••
i'ii'1
in consumer imtattnent credit (ann. rate, bil. do).,; -
avg.-6-teirifgtL
and consumer e r e * Outstanding (am. rate, perc
110. Funds^Sfed by private nonnnMeM borrowers in credit
marke^<J (am. rate, bil. dol.) f | X X j
300200-
100 J
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.
32
JUNE 1988
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d
Chart B7. M o n e y and C r e d i t — C o n t i n u e d
[Credit Difficulties 1
14. Current labilities of business failures (nil dd.inverted scale; MCD moving avg.—6-term)
WWVli
loans delinquent 30 days and over
93. Free reservMgifl.dol.—inverted scale)
M
L.U.U
94. Member bank borrowing! from the Federal Reserve (bil. dol.f
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on pafje 72.
I M J I JUNE 1988
33
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
ii-:..
N •.
\
pi
.
V •••
•
•
field on long-term Treasury btttJs (
market yiekfcaJntt mortgages (percent)
J
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-tod a
1962 63
64
65
66
67 68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75 76
77
78 79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series arc shown on parjns 12 and /3.
34
JUNE 1988
RCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL I N D I C A T O R S BY E C O N O M I C P R O C E S S — C o n t i n u e d
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Continued
[Interest Rates—Con7
109. Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)-
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans, Q (percent)
400350-
| Outstanding Debt |
101, Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982 dollars
; :;Cbil.dol.)
y•..•:'•••
||,i,.|r|
300-
\
250-
200-
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current
dollaRt: pil. dbl)
150700600-
500400-
300-
66. Consumer installment credit outstanding (bil. dol.)
Mi"
v-
200-
100 J
18-
95. Ratio, consumer instaJknent credit outstanding to personal income
-:• .'.{percent) [Lg,Lg,Li{
"•
"
161412-
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Currifnt dritfi for ttujsn si'MCi art' shown on pay.: / Li.
JUNE 1988
35
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES A N D RATES OF C H A N G E
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes
| Percent rising |
950. Hewn leading indicator components1 (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span—-)
100 ->
50-
[""51
951. Foi*1||ghly coincident inci^tborcomponents (6-mo. s p a n — , ! * » .
'.OOn
i
t
ji
ii
f
tf
•• • -
-'
I-
->
•
t*. •jH-^'^ii
•
!i
^i
\ >
I.
50-
952. S|ii8gging indicator compqoeffts (6-mo. s p a n — , 1-mo. span
50-
961. ft*|§ge weekly hours of pe|toction or nonsupervisory workers, 20
" lacturing industries ffoflQ. s p a n — , 1-mo. span—-)
50-
962. I f p f claims for unemploi^W insurance, State programs, 51 areas
' * ent declining; 9-mo. span.—, 1-mo. span—-)
100T
50-
963. pployees on private noBa^cultural payrolls, 172-186 indusWes
(^nw. span—, l-me.sJBM—-)
100 T
50-
1962 63
64 65 66
1
67 68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75 76
V.iluos of this index piior to January 1984 include a twelfth comporH'Mt. stru-s 12. which has I).
Currynt data tor thrfse st'nps tiro shown on pas;*! 74.
77
78 79
80
81
82
83 84
85 86
87
88 1989
fioni th.' current mdc*
JUNE 1988
KCI)
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
964. Manufacturers' new orders, 34-35 durable goods industries
# . span—, l-ff||j!js*----)
Percent rising]
lOO-i
50-
0-1
in 1982 dollars, 17 :
moving avg»««, 1-Q
96S3Hewly approved
^manufacturing i
706050403020-
966 Ini^nal production, 24 s p i t e s (6-mo. span
1-mo. spaR
4
100-
50-
0-
100 -
50-
0-
stocks, 40-82 industries
. span-—)
t
100-
50-
0-
96$,1tet profits, manufactuj| about 600 conyanies1 (4-Q span)
9080706050401962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
1
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
KU)
JUNE 1988
37
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Chart C l . Diffusion Indexes—Continued
v,';
•••>;>:.•;
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
W
970.
i plant and
tries (1-Q span)
ures
974. Number of e m c e e s , 8 § | | | t u r i n g and trade (4-Q span)1
| 3l
(b) Later |
975. Level of inventories, mawiactunng and trade (4-Q span)1
(O
7*
(a) Actual
Mng (4-Q span)1
971. New (
90 -i
a m-7 ~^... s- •
1
• ""I ng and trade (4-Q span)
p :111
1 iIpt
972. Netp
• • • ,
* .
. - • •
1
m
" /"\
"
**
•*
977. Selling prices. W 5 w t r a d e (4-Q span)1
90-1
90-a_
SI
n
.
80• • • •
7060-
978. Selling pices,
Hand trade (4-Q span)1
973. Netsaleip
|
iff
1
1976 77
78
100-
79
80
<060-
81
82
83
84
85
86
87 1988
1976 77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87 1988
i This is .i copyrighted srries used by permission, it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstrect. Inc. Dun & Bradstroet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1.400
38
JUNE 1988 IB
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
D I F F U S I O N INDEXES A N D RATES OF C H A N G E — C o n t i n u e d
Chart C 3 . Rates of Change
F-
I
1-month spans
3-month spans
I Percent change at annual rate |
910c. Composite Index of eleven leading JnoTcators'
•gf. ' i - V i
920c. Composite indei o^four roughly coincident indicators
••»!,VO,(
930c. Composite index of six lagging indicators
50c. Gross nationalf j l j c t in 1982 dollars (1-Q spanX
51c. Personal incon*1»s transfer payments in 1982
+ 20•10^VJLAA^V^WV
^tf^
0-
"¥
-10-20-
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
NOTE: Data for these percent changes ,in; shown occasionally in appendix C. The "Alphabetn:al Index— SOUPS Findmc r>iiid(> ' indicates the latest issue in which tho data for each series wore published
'Valuos ot this index prior to January 1984 include d twelfth component, srrics 12. which has heen suspended fnnii the •jutrcnt mdi?x
JUNE 1988
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart A l . G N P a n d Personal I n c o m e
200. Gross n f p a l product in
Q (am. rate, WL dol.)
223. Personal income in
(am. rate, bil. dol.)
personal income in
Q (am. rate, bil. dot.)
50. GnriWttal product in 1982 dollars,
( • M U M dol.)
213. F i n a i H M n 19S2 dollars, Q (am. rate, •
doL)
225. Disposable
dollars, Q
national product in 1982
dol.)
capita disposable personal iiflpe in
dollars, Q (ann. rate, thouSol.)
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on pages 63 and 80.
40
JUNE 1988
HCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
C h a r t A 2 . Personal C o n s u m p t i o n Expenditures
AAWal rate, bion dollars (current
Personal consumption expenditures—
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on papesfiOand 81.
ItCIt
JUNE 1988
41
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A
I
NATIONAL I N C O M E A N D P R O D U C T — C o n t i n u e d
Chart A 3 . Gross Private Domestic Investment
rate, bion dofars (current) |
900800700-
Gross private domestic investment—
600500400-
300-
200-
+ 80+ 60-
JH
+ 40+ 200-20-40-60-
900-
JH
800700600500400300-
+ 80-
30. ChaiV-JB business inventories, Q
+ 60+ 40+ 200-
-20-40-
-60-»
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on page 81
42
JUNE1988
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services
H
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (current) |
Government purchases of goods and services—
300-
200-
266. State and local
government, Q
100-"
ftoinual rate, billion dollars (1982)j
267. State and local government, Q
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for thosr series are shown on paf>e 81
JUNE 1988
43
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A5. Foreign Trade
Annual rate, billion dolars (current)J
6OO-1
5b0-
y
y
v
H
>
-,
500 450400-
T
350300250-
- 252. Exports of goods and services, Q
200-
150-
/fV-253. Imports of goods and services, C
100-
250. Net exports of goods and services, Q
+
50-
0-50-
t&iif
-100
-
-150
-
1 Annual fate, billon dollars (1982)1
600-i
550500450400350-
z:
257. Imports of goods and services, Q
300-
250-
200-
256. Exports of goods and services, Q
150+ 100-1
255. Net exports of goods and services, Q
+ 50
0-50-100 -150-200
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data tor these series are shown on page 82.
44
JUNE 1988
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A6. National Income and Its Components
! • • .
.
40003500 300025002000-
1500 -
1000-1
400 360 3202802402001801601401201009080706050-
capital consumption adjustments, Q
40-
30-
m
Rental income of persons
consumption adjustment,
20-
10-
1962
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on page 82.
\ \ \ \ \
JUNE 1988
45
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Chart A7. Saving
N-!v
T
I
P I P
[femtial rate, baton dollars (current)
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shewn on pages 82 and 83.
46
JUNE 1988
IICII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND P R O D U C T — C o n t i n u e d
Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National I n c o m e
[Percent of GNP~|
70-i
235. Personal consumption expenditures, Q
65-
60 J
State and local government purchases
265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, Q
248. Nonresktential fixed investment, Q
249. Residential fi«d investment, Q
247. Change in business inventories, Q
251. Net exports of goods and services, Q
Percent of National Income
64. Compensation of employees, Q
70-
6b
J
15-i
287. Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q
10-
283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, Q
5-
289. Net interest, Q
0-1
285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment, Q
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on pat;e 83.
IICII
JUNE 1988
47
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
|
PRICES, WAGES, A N D PRODUCTIVITY
Chart B l . Price M o v e m e n t s
,ri
l.i.
I Index: 1982 = 1001
310c. Implicit price deflator for y ^ I Percent change at annual rate]
national product (1-Q span)};. j ' , '
130-
+ 15-
120-
310. implicit price deflatorfor|
national product, Q
+ 10-
110-
+ 5-
10090-
0-
311c. Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product
80-
+ 15-
d-Qspan)
70-
+ 10-
130-
311. Fixed-weighted price index,
gross domestic business product,
+ 5-
120110-
0
Producer price indexes-7.
100-
:
j 6-month spans |
c
90-
330c. All commodities
80-
;oProducer price indexes—
170110-
330. All commodities^
335& Industrial cpmodities
100-
+ 20-|
90-
+ 10
80-
\r
/060-
335. Industry commodities
0
-10
Crude materials for
g y?Iifurther processing
+ 30-
110+ 20 -
103+ 10 •
90-
0-
80-
s "
II)-
60 -
332c. Intermedfirte mataiate, supplies, and components
;?0 i
331. Crude materials forfartherprocessing
r.o
+ 10-
;OD
332. iiteftnediate materials,
supplies, and components
0•
\r
90
80-
-10
333c; Capital equipment
70
60
jl
J
120-
334. Finished consumer goods
11J -
334c. Finished consumer goods
:oo-
+ 20 90-
, Capital equipment
+ 10 -
80-
0 lil-
-10 b'J-
1976 77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87 1988
1976 77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87 1988
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84. 85. and 86.
JUNE 1988
ItCIt
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B
I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart B l . Price Movements—Continued
Index: 1982-84=100
Consumer price indexes-
I ! H i Percent change at annual rate]
All urban consumers (
§AII urban consumers, food (
C h a r t B 2 . Wages a n d P r o d u c t i v i
hdex: 1977=1001
Wages
hourly earnings
ate nonagncurn
age hourly earrings of
hrate nonagricultural pa
age hourly c o r n p e M l i , all employees,
business sector, Q
Average hourly
nonfarm business
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
1
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally
Current data for these series are shown on pages 84. 87. and 88.
9 JUNE 1988
49
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Continued
I
[Wages—ConT
P
T
Change in average hourly turnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private npnagrk^tfjgayrotls 1 —
340c. Current-dollar earnings
i
.
i
1
mliliii i
[
^
»
*
T
•
i
^
'
ercen c
"* '
:
it-
U ' : i v ;' v s • '
6-month spins (am. rate)
341c. Real earnings
Change in average hourly compensatiotf #empk>yees,
nonfarm business sector, Q—
", T
345c. Curr««6!bllar compensation
% 4-quarter spans
l-quart«rspans (am. rate)
1-quart* spans (am. rate)
Negotiated wage and benefit decisi
first-year chawes,
349. A i i a t e changes over life of
1 Index: 1977 ^1001
358. Output per hour, all
nonfarm business sector
Output per hoar, m persons
ousiness sector,
Change in output per hour, all persons, business sector, Q
— 1-quarter spans (
1962 63
64
65
1
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
Adjusted (or overtime (in manufacturing only i and in tor industry employment shifts and seasonally
with the annualiiud 6-month changes. Sin- pap.e 67 for actual 1-month percent chanat's.
Cuirer.t data for those series art? shown on pages 87 and 88.
50
76
2
On
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
ith percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) to make them comparable
JUNE 1988
ItCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Chart C l . Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
Nov
Jan July
Mar
July
Ncv
81
82
force (millions)
442. Civilian emptoym
CiyiHan labor force participation rates H i e n t )
Number unemployed (trillions)—
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on page 89.
JUNE 1988
51
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
G O V E R N M E N T ACTIVITIES
C h a r t D l . Receipts a n d E x p e n d i t u r e s
Annual rate, Mfon dolars (current)
ederal Government Ht«Rures,Q
ent surplus or deficit, Q
5 & State and local
State and local government ex£iiditure|<|
government surplus or d e i l , Q
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
r.-#
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on pap.r 90.
52
JUNE 1988
ItCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators
Ite
P
N.s
Vai
I
F
!
P
40-
I Advance Measures of Defense Activity]
35302520-
gross obligations incurred
ng avg.—6-term)
15-1
22-i
201816141210-
240-1
220200 180160140120100-
141210-
6-
4-
2-1
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
Kill
JUNE 1988
53
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
220-i
200180160140120-
| Intermediate and Final Measures of DeJUs Activity |
10042-i
38343026221814-1
1801601401201008060343026221814-
109-
654-
3-
2-
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on page 91.
54
JUNE 1988
ItCIt
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Chart D2. Defense Indicators—Continued
I Intermediate and Final Measures of Defend? Activity—Con. | . • : ' '
570. Empk»y|i|| ^defense products industries (mWnns)
2.01.81.61.41.21.0-
3.53.02.52.0-
1.5-
5f&?Oivilian personnel, direct hire
1.0-
400350300250-
200-
150 -
100-
50 J
as a percent of GNP, Q (perant)
1098-
JH
765-
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on pafio 91.
• H I ) JUNE 1988
55
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Chart E l . Merchandise Trade
.
N
3530252015109876b43-
2-
604. Exports of domestic
(biL dot.)
1J
4540353025-
109876-
2-
108-
616. Imports of automobMand
060.4-
0.2-
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
8 8 1989
Current data for these series are shown on page 92.
56
JUNE 1988
BCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
£] I
U.S. I N T E R N A T I O N A L T R A N S A C T I O N S — C o n t i n u e d
Chart E2. Goods and Services M o v e m e n t s
750650550 450-
Goods and services—
350250-
150-
50-"
650 550450350-
250-
622. Balance of
620. Imports, Q
150-
50-
140-
120-
100-
60-
40-
20-
1962 63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88 1989
Current data for these series are shown on page 93.
ItCII
JUNE 1988
57
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart F l . Industrial Production
Mistrial p r o d u c t ^
1976 77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87 1988
1976 77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87 1988
Current data for these series are shown on page 94.
58
JUNE 1988
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Chart F2. Consumer Prices
Jan
P
;i;iy
.uy
T
p
Chart F3. Stock Prices
Jdn. July
Nov.
T
P
I Percent change at annual rate |
I 6-month spans I
I
JL.iy
Nov.
T
P
1 Index: 1967=1001
Stock prices—
400-]
Consumer prices—
350300-
• 20 n
320c. United States
19. United States
+
HJ
250-
200 -
10-
150-
900800-
20-1
700 -
600-
10-
500400-
746. France^
300i-20 -i
735c. West Germany
200-
• 10-
745. West Germany
100-
20-1
10 -
30-1
Tilt. United Kingdom
+ 20-
+ 10 -
0 ->
•30
-i
• 20
-
+ 10 -
0
• 20
J
-i
733c. Canada
+ 10 -
0
1976 77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87 1988
J
1976 77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87 1988
Current data for these series are shown on pages 95 and 96.
ItCII
JUNE 1988
59
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
m
Year
and
month
910. Index of
eleven leading
indicators (series
1, 5, 8, 19, 20,
29, 32, 36, 99,
106, 111) 1
(1967 = 100)
920. Index of
four roughly
coincident indicators (series
41,47,51,57)
(1967 = 100)
930. Index of
six lagging indicators (series
62, 77, 91, 95,
101, 109)
(1967 = 100)
COMPOSITE INDEXES
940. Ratio,
coincident index
to lagging index2
Leading indicator subgroups
914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29) 2
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
915. Inventory
investment and
purchasing
(series 8, 32, 36,
99)2
916. Profitability (series
19, 26, 80)
917. Money and
financial flows
(series 104, 106,
HI)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(3)
1986
January
February
March
174.1
175.0
176.4
162.9
163.4
162.9
140.5
141.1
142.3
115.9
115.8
114.5
108.9
110.2
109.9
103.3
103.3
103.5
117.3
119.0
119.8
142.2
140.3
140.0
April
May
June
178.1
178.5
1/8.3
165.6
164.3
163.7
140.5
141.4
141.6
117.9
116.2
115.6
110.4
109.5
109.6
103.8
103.5
103.0
119.9
119.7
120.4
140.3
142.4
142.6
July
August
September
179.9
180.3
179.9
164.4
164.8
165.8
141.8
142.2
141.6
115.9
115.9
117.1
109.8
108.8
108.9
103.3
102.9
102.8
120.0
120.4
118.9
144.9
145.6
145.5
October
November
December
181.2
182.7
186.7
165.4
165.8
167.4
143.7
143.4
142.4
115.1
115.6
117.6
108.4
108.6
111.0
102.8
103.6
104.9
117.8
117.4
117.9
147.3
146.8
149.2
185.5
186.0
187.6
165.6
168.2
168.0
144.6
142.1
141.3
114.5
118.4
118.9
108.9
(NA)
104.4
104.6
105.3
119.3
120.8
121.5
148.9
147.0
145.4
April
May
June
187.6
188.6
rl90.5
168.0
167.6
rl68.2
141.8
142.0
142.6
118.5
118.0
rll8.0
105.3
106.0
106.7
121.3
121.3
122.9
144.5
144.1
rl45.6
July
August
September
191.0
rl91.8
192.0
rl69.7
rl70.4
rl70.6
141.9
141.6
143.1
rll9.6
rl20.3
rll9.2
107.1
rlO6.3
106.6
124.2
0)126.2
125.1
rl44.5
144.3
145.4
October
November
December
rl92.1
rl89.7
rl90.4
rl72.9
rl72.4
rl73.7
142.5
143.3
143.4
rl21.3
rl20.3
rl21.1
rlO6.8
106.9
107.5
122.2
119.3
rll9.1
rl47.3
146.7
146.4
rl90.0
191.5
rl91.8
rl73.4
rl74.7
rl75.8
rl44.7
rl45.0
rl45.7
rll9.8
rl2O.5
rl2O.7
106.8
106.4
106.5
rll9.9
rl20.5
(NA)
rl46.7
rl47.9
rl48.7
E>192.8
M92.6
175.6
H> 5 175.9
146.4
H) 6 146.5
rll9.9
pl20.1
rlO5.7
plO6.5
1987
January
February
March
1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
0)pl51.8
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Current high values are indicated by 0 ) ; for series that move counter to movements
in general business activity, current low values are indicated by 0 ) . Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back
of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 10 and 11.
1
Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the
The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 940 (130.0) in January 1984, series 914 (111.5) in
series 915 (107.9) in April 1984. 3 See "New Features and Changes for This Issue" on page iii of the March 1987 issue,
and 111, for which data are not available. 5 Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
Excludes series 7
data are not available.
2
60
current index.
February 1984, and
^Excludes series 36
and 95, for which
JUNE 1988
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q j
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Marginal Employment Adjustments
L, C, L
L, C, L
L, L, L
1. Average weekly hours
of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing
Comprehensive
Employment
Job Vacancies
L, Lg, U
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production
or nonsupervisory workers,
manufacturing
5. Average weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs1
(Hours)
(Hours)
(Thous.)
(2)
(2)
60. Ratio, help-wanted
advertising in newspapers
to number of persons
unemployed
U,C, C
L, Lg, U
46. Index of help-wanted
advertising in newspapers
48. Employee hours in
nonagricultural establishments
month
1986
January
February
March
(1967 = 100)
(Ratio)
(Ann. rate,
bil. hours)
Revised 2
40.8
40.6
40.7
3.5
3.4
r3.5
375
384
393
0.519
0.484
0.486
137
137
136
184.62
184.05
184.43
r40.8
40.7
40.6
3.4
3.5
3.4
374
378
378
0.487
0.476
0.504
137
135
143
184.74
184.68
184.36
July
August
September
40.6
40.8
40.8
3.5
3.5
3.5
370
379
369
0.492
0.506
0.502
137
138
140
184.61
185.24
185.52
October
November
December
40.7
40.8
40.8
3.5
3.5
3.6
343
342
356
0.503
0.525
0.518
139
145
138
186.08
186.76
186.97
January
February
March
40.9
41.1
r41.0
3.6
3.6
r3.7
359
361
341
0.508
0.528
0.573
136
140
150
187.44
188.84
188.65
April
May
June
r40.7
41.0
41.0
3.5
3.8
3.7
324
326
327
0.587
0.601
0.619
149
153
152
187.90
189.89
189.86
July
August
September
41.0
41.0
40.6
3.8
3.8
r3.7
327
297
286
0.628
0.660
0.663
153
161
158
190.48
191.28
188.14
October
November
December
r41.2
41.2
41.0
r3.9
3.9
3.8
0)284
293
312
0.672
0.680
0/661
162
0)162
155
192.85
193.07
193.31
r41.1
41.0
r40.9
3.9
3.7
3.7
351
321
304
0.646
0.669
0.691
153
156
158
193.50
195.29
195.00
4.0
0>p4.O
296
307
0)0.711
pO.706
158
pl61
0)196.60
pl96.29
April
May
June
1987
1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
0)41.2
p41.1
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 16, and 17.
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
1
ItCII
JUNE 1988
61
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q
j
EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Continued
Minor Economic
Comprehensive Employment—Continued
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
U, C, C
42. Number
of persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities
C, C, C
month
(Thous.)
105,597
105,427
105,640
January
February
March
40. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
goodsproducing
industries
90. Ratio,
civilian employment to population of
working age
(Percent)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
Revised
1986
U, Lg, U
L, C, U
41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls
2
98,788
98,887
98,973
Revised
Comprehensive Unemployment
L, Lg, U
37. Number of
persons unemployed
L, Lg, U
43. Unemployment rate
(Thous.)
(Percent)
L, Lg, U
45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs*
(Percent)
Lg, Lg, Lg
91. Average
duration of
unemployment
Lg, Lg, Lg
44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Weeks)
(Percent)
2
24,832
24,752
24,688
59.87
59.61
59.74
7,847
8,427
8,330
6.7
8,373
8,444
8,441
7.1
2.8
2.8
2.8
15.0
15.4
14.6
14.6
14.7
15.1
1.8
7.1
2.8
2.8
2.8
1.9
7.2
7.1
1.8
2.0
1.9
105,793
105,938
106,495
99,136
99,262
99,170
24,679
24,587
24,499
59.74
59.73
60.02
106,710
106,929
106,883
99,457
99,608
99,963
24,476
24,457
24,429
60.05
60.10
60.05
8,278
8,115
8,298
7.0
6.9
7.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
15.2
15.5
15.4
107,052
107,224
107,504
100,120
100,349
100,571
24,428
24,429
24,471
60.07
60.15
60.20
8,230
8,214
7,919
6.9
6.9
6.7
2.7
2.7
2.6
15.2
15.0
1.9
15.0
1.9
100,795
101,016
101,260
24,501
24,533
24,536
60.30
60.43
60.43
7,964
7,886
7,791
6.7
6.6
6.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
15.0
14.8
14.9
1.8
1.8
March
107,840
108,119
108,218
April
May
June
108,556
109,065
109,108
101,615
101,829
102,078
24,596
24,653
24,684
60.57
60.79
60.72
7,557
7,573
7,308
6.3
6.3
6.1
2.5
2.4
2.4
14.8
14.8
14.7
1.7
July
August
September
109,427
109,907
109,688
102,430
102,672
102,906
24,788
24,851
24,902
60.84
61.02
60.87
7,251
7,256
7,091
6.0
6.0
5.9
2.3
2.3
2.2
14.2
14.3
14.2
1.6
October
109,961
110,332
110,529
103,371
103,678
104,001
25,025
25,123
25,201
61.00
61.11
61.19
7,177
7,090
6,978
6.0
5.9
5.8
2.1
2.1
2.1
14.1
14.0
14.2
1.5
110,836
111,182
110,899
104,262
104,729
105,020
25,180
25,271
25,330
61.33
7,046
6,938
6,801
5.8
5.7
5.6
2.3
2.3
2.2
14.4
14.4
13.7
1.4
61.44
61.23
105,269
0>plO5,478
25,438
0)p25,446
0)61.52
61.20
0)6,610
6,783
0)5.4
2.1
0)13.4
13.8
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
7.2
1.9
1.9
1.9
2.0
1.9
1987
January
February
November
December
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1988
January
February
March
April
May
0)111,485
111,160
5.6
0)2.1
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 15, 17, and 18.
x
2
62
Data exclude Puerto Rico, which is included in figures published by the source agency.
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
JUNE 1988
1.4
1.4
1.3
0)1.3
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PRODUCTION AND INCOME
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Industrial Production
Comprehensive Output and Income
Process
Timing Class .
C, C, C
50. Gross national product
in 1982 dollars
Year
C.C.C
52. Constant
(1982) dollars
51. Personal
income less
transfer payments in 1982
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Personal income
223. Current
dollars
and
C.C.C
C.C.C
C.C.C
CCTC
53. Wages and
47. Index of
73. Index of
salaries in 1982
industrial
industrial
dollars, mining,
production
production,
mfg., and con-
durable manu-
struction
factures
C, L,L
74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures
C,C,C
49. Value of
goods output
in 1982 dollars
month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann.
rate,
bil. dol.)
(1977 = 100)
(1977 = 100)
(1977-100)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1986
3,698.8
3,444.4
3,463.8
3,482.1
3,021.4
3,051.8
3,073.3
2,576.6
2,604.2
2,622.7
540.1
539.2
542.8
126.4
125.5
123.9
129.8
128.9
127.4
128.6
128.2
127.3
1,589.5
3,704.7
3,525.8
3,525.9
3,528.1
3,111.9
3,103.8
3,094.8
2,660.2
2,650.4
2,641.8
544.5
544.1
539.7
124.7
124.3
124.1
128.5
127.7
126.9
128.9
129.7
130.2
1,594.4
3,718.0
3,540.3
3,552.9
3,567.5
3,102.8
3,103.0
3,104.9
2,642.4
2,647.4
2,648.8
540.3
542.0
540.0
124.8
124.9
124.5
128.1
127.9
128.4
130.6
131.1
130.3
1,593.7
3,731.5
3,577.5
3,590.3
3,613.0
3,108.2
3,116.6
3,130.8
2,651.5
2,659.7
2,673.3
545.1
541.6
540.3
125.3
125.7
126.8
128.6
129.0
129.7
131.2
131.7
133.4
1,602*6
3,772^2
3,631.5
3,671.2
3,683.4
3,117.2
3,143.2
3,137.5
2,660.3
2,685.5
2,682.4
540.0
538.7
537.6
126.2
127.1
127.4
129.3
130.8
131.5
132.7
132.9
133.7
1,626.0
3,795.3
3,701.9
3,708.5
3,715.3
3,139.9
3,132.2
3,127.4
2,684.1
2,671.5
2,671.4
534.1
535.0
534.1
127.4
128.2
129.1
130.9
131.4
132.0
134.6
135.7
136.9
1,638*2
3,835.9
3,739.2
3,760.6
3,783.2
3,144.8
3,149.6
3,150.0
2,686.3
2,693.0
2,694.6
532.8
535.3
536.7
130.6
131.2
131.0
133.5
133.8
133.7
138.5
138.8
138.6
1,666.8
3,854.4
3,839.8
3,869.1
3,198.7
3,178.6
3,205.6
2,741.1
2,722.7
2,748.4
539.3
541.4
541.5
132.5
3,880.8
133.2
133.9
136.8
136.7
137.3
139.6
141.3
H>r3,915.4
r3,869.6
r3,891.1
r3,936.7
r3,192.7
r3,210.5
[H>r3,232.1
r2,726.3
r2,741.8
[H>r2,759.8
540.2
542.7
[H)r548.4
134.4
134.4
134.7
137.9
rl38.4
rl38.8
141.4
rl41.1
rl41.8
r3,940.8
r3,217.0
p3,217.3
r2,747.3
p2,748.2
r543.4
p543.2
rl35.5
[H)pl36.0
rl39.9
B>pl41.2
B>rl42.1
pl41.8
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
138.1
1,689*7
1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
B>p3,954.1
H>rl,726*2
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 19, 20, and 40.
JUNE 1988
63
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MM
l i l
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
PRODUCTION AND
INCOME—Continued
CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES
Capacity Utilization
Timing Class
Orders and Deliveries
L, C, U
L, C, U
82. Capacity
utilization rate,
manufacturing
84. Capacity
utilization rate,
materials
Year
and
month
L, L, L
Manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
7. Constant
(1982) dollars
6. Current
dollars
(Percent)
(Percent)
L, L, L
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
L, L, L
L, L, L
8. Manufacturers' new
orders in 1982
dollars, consumer goods
and materials
25. Change in
manufacturers'
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries1
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
L, L, L
L, Lg, U
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
32. Vendor
performance,
companies receiving slower
deliveries1 (u)
(Percent
reporting)
(Bil. dol.)
1986
January
February
March
80.7
80.2
79.2
80.5
79.8
78.5
99.02
101.26
100.94
92.63
94.73
94.33
81.63
80.74
79.16
0.63
2.18
3.23
363.65
365.84
369.06
46
48
50
April
May
June
79.9
79.6
79.3
78.7
78.3
78.0
98.18
97.30
97.90
91.58
90.68
91.15
81.07
78.92
80.38
-2.76
-1.32
-1.70
366.30
364.98
363.28
50
55
50
July
August
September
79.7
79.6
79.4
78.1
77.9
77.7
99.68
96.30
102.95
92.72
89.50
95.59
79.18
80.04
82.66
-0.03
-1.88
2.29
363.24
361.36
363.55
54
51
52
October
November
December
79.5
79.6
80.2
77.9
78.5
79.1
99.98
99.98
105.68
92.48
92.32
97.58
81.25
79.54
85.34
-1.06
-0.03
-0.71
362.60
362.57
361.86
54
56
56
January
February
March
79.6
80.0
80.3
78.7
73.7
78.7
96.91
102.07
105.95
89.32
94.07
97.47
80.85
84.53
85.62
-2.34
-1.18
1.78
359.51
358.33
360.10
55
52
55
April
May
June
80.2
80.4
80.8
79.1
79.3
79.8
107.14
rlO6.75
rl08.30
r98.47
r97.93
r99.27
r84.11
r83.68
r85.40
r4.30
r3.98
r3.82
364.41
r368.39
372.22
57
60
57
July
August
September
81.5
81.5
81.3
80.6
81.1
81.2
109.21
106.68
109.34
99.83
97.16
99.04
84.16
83.69
85.71
6.18
2.54
0.91
378.40
380.94
381.85
62
60
69
October
November
December
82.0
82.2
82.6
82.1
82.9
E>83.6
111.10
110.95
115.62
100.45
99.95
103.79
85.96
85.89
86.66
2.84
2.57
2.59
384.70
387.27
389.86
70
66
71
82.7
82.6
r82.7
83.0
r82.3
r82.3
114.20
114.32
rll5.25
rlO1.78
101.98
rlO2.45
r84.81
86.27
86.46
5.25
3.80
rl.49
395.11
398.91
r400.40
68
66
69
r82.9
E>p83.1
r83.1
p83.4
[H)rll7.37
[H)rlO3.96
plO1.29
r87.49
0)p88.73
r4.65
p0.40
405.04
[H)p405.45
62
66
1987
1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
P114.76
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 20, and 21.
lr
i'he following series reached their high value s before 1986:
64
series 25 (9.80) and series 32 (72) in March 1984.
JUNE 1988
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
El
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
• •
i l l
1 CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES—Continue d
Minor Economic
Formation of BusiConsumption and Trade
Process
Timing Class
C,C, C
c, c, c
C, L, C
C, L, U
ness Enterprises
U, L, U
75. Index of
Manufacturing and trade sales
Sales of retail stores
industrial
production,
Year
and
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
56. Current
dollars
57. Constant
(1982) dollars
L, C, C
L, L, L
L, L, L
55. Personal
58. Index of
consumption
consumer
12. Index of
net business
formation
expenditures,
consumer
54. Current
goods
dollars
59. Constant
(1982) dollars
1
sentiment ®
L, L,L
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
automobiles
month
(Ann.
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
(1977 = 100)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
rate,
bil. dol.)
(1st Q
1966=100)
(1967 = 100)
(Number)
1986
424,255
419,113
415,757
410,518
410,199
408,575
123.6
122.9
121.4
117,524
116,599
116,184
108,617
108,768
109,298
122.4
95.6
95.9
95.1
119.3
120.8
121.5
57,580
58,799
58,365
421,251
417,160
422,098
417,819
412,006
413,946
123.8
123.8
123.7
116,905
118,259
118,314
110,601
111,355
111,197
126^2
96.2
94.8
99.3
122.4
120.7
120.3
58,937
58,257
57,558
420,678
423,115
436,761
417,523
419,488
430,295
124.5
125.0
123.6
118,821
120,308
127,115
111,569
112,543
0)118,247
H>15l!3
97.7
94.9
91.9
120.7
119.3
120.4
58,002
56,541
58,002
428,495
429,396
442,876
422,639
422,723
431,993
124.8
125.0
126.6
120,778
120,470
126,011
112,666
112,274
116,677
14K3
95.6
91.4
89.1
119.7
118.3
121.9
57,410
56,924
H)65,318
425,002
442,408
444,170
416,920
433,196
430,685
125.5
126.4
126.7
117,246
123,292
123,680
107,961
113,008
112,744
117.5
90.4
90.2
90.8
118.1
120.5
122.0
55,069
58,880
60,193
r445,132
r447,284
453,701
r429,610
r428,805
430,800
125.5
127.3
127.2
rl24,609
r124,844
126,511
rll3,178
rll2,777
113,871
125 !i
92.8
91.1
91.5
120.7
119.8
rl20.3
57,715
56,624
57,502
454,330
460,047
464,984
433,890
436,811
439,591
128.9
129.4
114,415
116,470
114,121
148.3
127.7
127,230
129,981
127,815
93.7
94.4
93.6
rl20.4
rl21.5
rl22.5
57,483
57,951
57,066
464,947
462,975
468,303
438,814
435,121
436,886
129.0
129.4
129.8
126,808
127,248
128,615
112,919
113,109
114,426
129.8
89.3
83.1
86.8
rl21.6
rl23.4
rl22.7
55,337
57,358
53,453
465,730
470,656
[H)r479,709
r438,560
r443,598
128,769
130,121
H)rl32,259
114,461
115,972
rll7,251
rl32.8
[H>r447,680
131.2
rl31.3
131.2
90.8
91.6
94.6
rl23.8
rl24.4
rl24.7
54,913
57,493
p59,205
p478,767
(NA)
p445,643
(NA)
rl31.6
[H>pl32.0
rl31,761
pl31,880
rll6,191
pll5,786
91.2
94.8
[H>rl24.7
pl24.3
(NA)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 22, and 23.
1
Series 58 reached its high value (101.0) in March 1984.
JUNE 1988
65
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Q j
Minor Economic
Process
Business Investment Commitments
Timing Class
L, L, L
L, L, L
10. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)
L, L, L
L, L, L
Manufacturers' new orders,
nondefense capital goods industries
Contracts and orders for
plant and equipment
Year
and
month
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued
20. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Bil. dol.)
24. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)
UC U
U, Lg, U
9. Construction contracts awarded for
commercial and industrial buildings1 2
27. Constant
(1982) dollars
Square feet of
floor space
(Bil. dol.)
(Millions)
Square meters of
floor space3
(Millions)
C Lg, Lg
11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations 2
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, 1,000
manufacturing
corporations2
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
1986
29.45
32.82
30.91
January
February
March
30.95
36.40
33.36
24.96
27.66
26.61
26.92
31.78
29.53
72.89
82.65
73.01
6.77
7.68
6.78
23^39
28.05
28.80
29.64
82.17
78.06
76.57
7.63
7.25
7.11
19.99
92.22
April
May
June
30.13
29.86
30.53
32.28
32.74
33.78
25.36
25.43
25.85
July
August
September
30.97
29.83
31.86
34.68
33.60
34.59
26.40
25.34
27.16
30.63
29.63
30.44
73.43
76.48
76.51
6.82
7.10
7.11
20.20
October
November
December
32.00
31.99
34.29
34.83
35.23
37.59
27.54
27.27
29.14
30.87
31.03
33.00
73.54
83.00
76.45
6.83
7.71
7.10
22! 10
31.27
31.93
32.73
33.62
34.79
35.87
26.77
27.04
27.69
29.63
30.48
31.46
80.75
73.72
77.18
7.50
6.85
7.17
21.*44
r33.25
r34.57
r35.06
r36.74
r38.11
r37.87
r28.53
r30.23
r29.72
r32.60
r34.30
r33.20
78.14
76.74
84.28
7.26
7.13
7.83
32.26
July
August
September
36.77
34.69
34.66
40.63
38.25
38.28
31.98
29.54
29.75
36.47
33.79
34.03
84.76
84.70
85.96
7.87
7.87
7.99
29.81
October
November
December
35.23
34.60
38.81
39.12
37.53
41.76
30.42
30.08
33.88
34.94
33.64
37.49
82.21
75.90
84.37
7.64
7.05
7.84
p33.98
38.60
H)38.84
r36.95
E>43.45
42.78
r40.95
E>34.79
33.76
r32.48
H>40.17
38.40
r37.10
69.43
91.89
73.91
6.45
8.54
6.87
(NA)
r41.74
p39.72
r33.56
p31.26
r38.26
p35.81
69.80
69.98
6.48
6.50
85^77
8o!71
69.72
1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
69.17
74.64
74.71
p76.81
1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
r37.58
p35.77
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 12, 23, and 24.
x
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F. W. Dodge Division. 2 The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 9 (93.19 square feet and 8.66
square meters) in September 1985, series 11 (34.12) in 2d quarter 1984, and series 97 (99.88) in 2d quarter 1985. Converted to metric
units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
66
JUNE 1988
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC
PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Continued
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class .
C, Lg, Lg
C Lg, Lg
Expenditures for new plant
and equipment
Year
and
month
Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment
Business Investment Expenditures
61. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
100. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
C Lg, Lg
69. Machinery
and equipment
sales and
business
construction
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
C Lg, U
C, Lg, C
76. Index of
industrial production, business equipment
(1977-100)
Lg- Lg, Lg
C Lg, C
28. New private housing
units startedl
Gross private nonresidential
fixed investment in 1982 dollars
86. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
87. Structures *
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L, L, L
88. Producers'
durable equipment
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
L, L, L
29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits 1
(1967 = 100)
L, L, L
89. Gross private residential
fixed investment
in 1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1986
January
February
March
380.04
387.13
381.52
394.74
394.11
142.1
141.3
139.2
453.2
145.4
307.8
1,938
1,869
1,873
147.3
140.9
141.9
185*9
April
May
June
376.21
379.25
395.29
383.39
388.43
139.6
138.6
137.2
441.0
128.4
312.6
1,947
1,847
1,845
148.2
143.3
142.7
196*5
July
August
September
375.50
376.42
388.27
387.28
386.99
139.4
139.1
139.6
437.7
122.7
315*0
1,789
1,804
1,685
141.9
137.6
134.4
201 II
October
November
December
386*09
386.76
393.82
391.03
412.26
139.4
138.8
139.5
443.2
124*6
318.6
1,683
1,630
1,837
133.6
131.1
151.8
0)202*2
January
February
March
374.23
374.49
370.84
386.83
394.48
138.6
141.7
141.9
426.0
120.4
305.6
1,804
1,809
1,723
134.9
134.6
134.1
198*2
April
May
June
377.65
376.95
r392.13
r392.33
399.08
142.1
141.7
144.2
437.9
120.4
317*5
1,635
1,599
1,583
127.3
119.9
122.7
196.8
July
August
September
393.13
394.54
402.81
409.64
423.70
145.6
145.6
146.3
463.8
127*2
336.6
1,594
1,583
1,679
120.7
119.7
October
November
December
409.37
r409.35
415.39
415.48
437.33
148.7
148.3
149.8
465 '.6
129.8
335*8
1,538
1,661
1,399
115.9
116.3
109.4
197.0
0)409*73
0)413*40
435.48
r436.50
0)r448.85
151.2
rl52.4
rl53.4
0)r488*3
127.6
1,382
1,519
rl,529
99.5
114.0
117.7
rl92.5
ra429.'6i
ra433.*43
p444.71
(NA)
0)pl55.9
rl,576
pi,384
115.6
114.5
July
August
September
a438.22
a443.06
October
November
December
a443.95
a45o'83
1987
120.4
193*5
1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
rl54.7
M)r360J
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 24, and 25.
lr
The following series reached their high values before 1986:
(158.5) in February 1984.
JUNE 1988
series 87 (151.7) in 2d quarter 1985, and series 28 (2 260) and series 29
67
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
NVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
Inventory Investment
L, L, L
30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollarsx
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L, L, L
L, L, L
36. Change in mfg. and trade
inventories on hand and on
order in 1982 dollars1
Smoothed2
Actual
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Inventories on Hand and on Order
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
31. Change
in mfg. and
trade inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L, L, L
38. Change in
mfrs.' inventories, materials and supplies on hand
and on order
(Bil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Manufacturing and trade
inventories
71. Current
dollars
(Bil. dol.)
70. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Bil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
65. Manufacturers' inventories,
finished
goods
(Bil. dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
77. Ratio,
mfg. and
trade inventories to
sales in
1982 dollars
(Ratio)
L, Lg, Lg
78. Mfrs.'
inventories,
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order
(Bil. dol.)
1986
January
February
March
35.3
22.18
15.18
43.63
8.37
12.76
21.74
28.7
-2.4
19.4
-0.23
1.22
-0.45
657.84
657.64
659.26
639.55
640.54
644.56
105.75
105.43
105.21
1.56
1.56
0)1.58
229.97
231.18
230.73
April
May
June
28*. 1
11.26
-39.48
20.98
25.18
14.25
1.36
9.0
-27.1
5.3
-0.96
-1.95
-1.33
660.01
657.76
658.20
646.10
643.87
645.89
105.17
104.87
103.80
1.55
1.56
1.56
229.77
227.82
226.49
July
August
September
6*.i
26.09
-24.98
-30.89
0.06
4.95
-1.28
29.9
-4.5
-17.4
-0.90
-1.09
1.42
660.68
660.31
658.87
648.98
647.14
644.01
104.05
103.60
102.74
1.55
1.54
1.50
225.59
224.50
225.92
October
November
December
-14.4
27.23
-22.78
-4.97
-9.74
-9.18
-4.49
29.4
-5.9
-44.4
-0.97
0.12
1.57
661.32
660.82
657.12
646.72
645.45
643.29
102.96
103.96
103.23
1.53
1.53
1.49
224.94
225.07
226.64
January
February
March
47.6
64.33
1.15
52.26
6.01
16.18
29.71
82.8
19.9
35.7
-0.73
-0.51
2.46
664.02
665.68
668.65
649.53
649.55
651.82
104.42
104.08
104.38
1.56
1.50
1.51
225.90
225.39
227.85
April
May
June
39.0
r22.37
r46.34
r32.60
r32.25
r32.79
r37.05
r27.2
r75.5
44.0
r3.11
r0.54
r2.35
r670.92
677.21
680.88
652.67
655.75
656.98
rl04.03
104.28
103.48
1.52
1.53
1.53
r230.96
r231.50
233.86
July
August
September
24.6
35.63
-11.50
22.84
r35.98
r28.55
rl7.28
39.3
12.0
52.4
2.98
1.36
1.99
684.15
685.15
689.51
658.83
657.37
658.31
104.58
105.37
104.77
1.52
1.50
1.50
236.84
238.19
240.18
October
November
December
6O.*5
66.19
28.49
33.78
20.75
32.51
41.00
[H>97.6
69.3
77.1
1.89
1.11
3.50
697.65
703.42
709.85
663.80
666.13
669.04
105.91
106.80
107.57
1.51
1.53
1.53
242.07
243.17
246.67
r51.80
r26.09
rl5.77
r40.42
r37.62
r34.22
62.1
34.3
r26.6
0)4.08
0.53
rl.09
715.03
717.88
r720.10
r673.81
108.70
r61.0
r675.45
r676.84
0>1O9.27
rlO9.15
1.54
rl.52
rl.51
250.76
251.29
r252.38
p8.59
(NA)
p24.02
(NA)
p43.4
(NA)
p3.29
(NA)
0)p723.72
(NA)
[H)p677.56
(NA)
plO9.14
(NA)
pi.52
(NA)
0)p255.67
(NA)
1987
1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 15, 26, and 27.
lr
rhe following series reached their high values before 1986: series 30 (83.4) in 1st quarter 1984, series 36 actual (89.60) in February
1984, and series 36 smoothed (78.81) in May 1984. 2 This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the
terminal month of the span.
JUNE 1988
IICII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
E 9
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
Stock
Prices
Sensitive Commodity Prices
L, L, L
98. Change in
producer prices
for sensitive
crude and
intermediate
materials1
(Percent)
L, L, L
U, L, L
23. Index of
spot market
prices, raw
industrial,
materials 2 ®
(1967 = 100)
L, L, L
99. Change in sensitive materials
prices
Smoothed3
Actual
(Percent)
(Percent)
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks (u)
(1941-43 = 10)
Profits and Profit Marg ns
L, L, L
L, L, L
Corporate profits after tax
16. Current
dollars1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
18. Constant
(1982) dollars1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L, C, L
L, C, L
Corporate profits after tax
with IVA and CCAdjA
79. Current
dollars1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
80. Constant
(1982) dollars1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L,L, L
22. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax to corporate domestic
income1
(Percent)
1986
0.37
-0.92
0.93
236.9
233.3
223.1
0.29
-0.68
-0.99
-0.05
-0.05
-0.28
208.19
219.37
232.33
120.9
I l l .9
189.9
182.8
4*3
1.29
0.82
0.45
219.9
221.3
225.0
0.00
0.50
0.69
-0.51
-0.36
0.12
237.98
238.46
245.30
122.3
112.5
180.2
171*3
4*.7
July
August
September
0.99
-2.14
1.18
227.6
212.0
221.2
0.69
-2.83
1.71
0.51
0.07
-0.31
240.18
245.00
238.27
130.2
119.5
180^3
170.i
4^9
October
• November
December
1.17
1.16
-0.18
235.5
243.7
247.5
2.27
1.35
0.38
0.12
1.08
1.56
237.36
245.09
248.61
134.0
122.7
167.1
156.0
5.1
0.35
0.26
0.88
252.8
247.2
246.3
0.76
-0.57
0.19
1.08
0.51
0.16
264.51
280.93
292.47
129.0
116.1
165*9
153^3
4^6
-0.26
2.52
1.78
253.8
272.6
276.4
0.85
H)3.00
1.00
0.14
0.75
1.48
289.32
289.12
301.38
134.5
120.5
162^6
148^8
4*8
July
August
September
1.92
1.55
3.38
284.2
288.3
292.4
1.53
0.98
1.58
0)1.73
1.51
1.27
H>329.36
318.66
141.9
126.8
172.0
157.7
5*1
October
November
December
2.57
1.44
0.07
294.6
292.0
293.1
1.13
0.26
0.17
1.30
1.11
0.76
280.16
245.01
240.96
145.6
129.5
173.0
157.3
4.9
r0.67
r-0.30
292.5
288.9
292.3
rO.17
r-0.43
0.85
r0.36
rO.O8
r0.08
250.48
258.13
265.74
rl44.2
rl27*7
rl73.6
rl57.8
r5.3
297.3
0.25
0.42
rO.21
January
February
March
April
May
June
1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
310.09
1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
1.49
-0.59
-0.07
0)301.6
5
309.7
0.36
6
262.61
256.12
272.08
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 28, and 29.
1
The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 98 (3.55) in July 1983; series 16 (152.5), series 18 (149.4), and
2
series 22 (6.9) in 1st quarter 1984; and series 79 (192.3) and series 80 (186.6) in 3d quarter 1985.
This is a copyrighted series used by
3
A
permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
See footnote 2 on page 68.
See
5
6
footnote 1 on page 70.
Average for June 1 through 22.
Average for June 1, 8, 15, and 22.
JUNE 1988
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Continued
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class ,
Year
and
month
Cash Flows
Profits and Profit Margins—Continued
U, L, L
L, L, L
81. Ratio, corporate domestic profits after
tax with IVA
and CCAdj to
corp. domestic
income12
15. Profits after
taxes per dollar
of sales, manufacturing corporations
(Percent)
(Cents)
L, L, L
26. Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit
labor cost,
nonfarm business sector
(1977 = 100)
L, L, L
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share
L, L, L
Corporate net cash flow
34. Current
dollars
Lg, Lg, Lg
63. Index of
unit labor cost,
business sector
35. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(1977 = 100)
Lg, Lg, Lg
68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial corporations
(Dollars)
Lg, Lg, I
Lg, U, Lg
62. Index of labor cost per unit
of output, manufacturing2
Actual data
(1977 = 100)
Actual data
as a percent
of trend
(Percent)
64. Compensation of employees as a
percent of national income2
(Percent)
1986
January
February
March
7*8
3*7
99.5
364.6
365.8
165*0
0.709
137.3
137.6
139.3
100.1
100.3
101.5
73.3
April
May
June
7*6
4.3
99*3
363.3
363.2
166.2
0.714
137.6
138.1
138.0
100.3
100.7
100.6
72*9
July
August
September
7*3
3.4
99.4
370.9
371.0
167*5*
0 . 717
137.2
137.8
137.8
100.0
100.4
100.4
73.'i
October
November
December
6*7
3*4
98.4
376.7
375.9
169.0
0.720
138.8
137.6
136.4
101.2
100.3
99.4
73.5
January
February
March
6.4
r4.6
99.1
378.7
378.6
169.4
0.724
137.4
136.8
136.0
100.1
99.7
99.1
73.0
April
May
June
6*2
r4.*9
99.4
384.6
384.3
170*2
0.728
135.9
135.7
135.0
99.1
98.9
98.4
73*0
July
August
September
6.5
r5.5
0)100.2
392.2
391.5
169.8
0.727
133.6
134.5
135.8
97.4
98.0
99.0
72*8
October
November
December
6.2
r4.4
99.5
E)397'.9
(H)397.8
171.8
[H>0.735
135.0
135.1
72*5
134.5
98.4
98.5
98.0
134.5
134.9
136.5
98.0
98.3
99.5
72.9
rl34.5
pl34.6
r98.0
p98.1
1987
1988
January
February
March
r6.6
April
May
June
r99.6
r395.3
r394.8
H)rl71.9
r0.734
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 29, and 30.
1
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 81 (8.4) in 3d quarter 1985, series 62 (139.8 actual data and 101.9
as percent of trend) in October 1985, and series 64 (73.6) in 4th quarter 1985.
2
70
JUNE 1988
ItO
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
| 3
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
MONEY AND CREDIT
Money
L, L, L
85. Change
in money
supply Ml
L, C . U
102. Change
in money
supply M2 1
L,L, L
104. Change
in total liquid
assets1
Velocity of Money
L, L, L
105. Money
supply Ml in
1982 dollars
L, L, L
106. Money
supply M2 in
1982 dollars
Year
and
month
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Bil. dol.)
(Bil. dol.)
C, C, C
107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
Ml1
(Ratio)
Credit Flows
C Lg, C
108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
M2 1
(Ratio)
L, L, L
33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L, L, L
112. Net change
in business loans
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
Revised2
1986
January
February
March
0.26
0.56
1.4.1
0.44
0.79
0.69
0.62
0.63
546.8
551.3
562.1
2,261.7
2,277.7
2,307.9
6.658
1.339
1.341
1.338
-23.17
57.40
43.56
62.84
-32.09
-14.94
April
May
June
1.14
1.64
1.47
0.93
0.95
0.94
0.68
0.70
0.63
569.4
577.7
583.2
2,333.5
2,351.4
2,361.0
6.465
1.342
1.329
1.318
52.58
30.83
(NA)
-56.35
20.84
-7.87
July
August
September
1.44
1.45
1.01
0.95
0.84
0.66
0.78
0.66
0.70
591.5
599.0
603.5
2,383.5
2,399.3
2,408.8
6.277
1.310
1.304
1.300
-7.43
40.57
-15.14
October
November
December
1.09
1.65
0)2.69
0.82
0.60
0.90
0.48
0.52
rO.71
609.0
618.0
633.0
2,424.3
2,434.6
2,450.1
6.049
1.293
1.290
1.287
24 23
20.02
93.40
January
February
March
0.83
-0.01
0.40
0.71
0.05
0.18
0.70
r0.30
r-0.03
633.8
631.0
630.8
2,450.4
2,441.2
2,435.0
5.978
1.284
1.298
1.300
0)126.83
-19.49
-33.82
April
May
June
1.43
0.24
-0.59
0.46
0.06
0.09
0.37
0.67
0.35
0)637.0
636.4
631.0
2,435.8
2,428.9
2,424.9
5.971
1.300
1.302
1.303
3.54
-5.56
-7.10
July
August
September
0.20
0.39
0.13
r0.23
0.40
0.40
0.07
0.54
0.60
630.7
630.5
629.2
r2,424.3
2,423.6
2,425.0
6.065
1.308
1.311
1.313
-51.73
-34.25
22.25
October
November
December
1.16
-0.46
-0.25
0.48
0.07
0.16
0.68
0.27
0.03
634.4
629.9
627.2
2,428.4
r2,423.9
2,423.6
6.117
1.332
1.326
1.334
38.02
5.00
61.02
1.08
0.09
0.46
0.82
0.72
0.73
rO.87
r0.75
r0.65
631.9
631.4
631.2
r2,435.5
r2,448.9
r2,454.5
r6.134
rl.323
rl.321
1.327
54.84
65.56
10.27
0.93
p-0.01
3-0.03
r0.82
p0.39
pO.97
(NA)
633.9
p631.7
r2,462.5
0)p2,464.1
rl.317
pi.316
116.41
p20.26
0.35
1987
1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 31, and 32.
1
The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 102 (2.66) in January 1983, series 104 (1.20) in March 1984, series
107 (7.035) in 4th quarter 1984, series 108 (1.373) in March 1984, and series 33 (143.70) in September 1984- 2See "New Features and
Changes for This Issue," page iii. 3Average for weeks ended June 6 and 13.
JUNE 1988
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^M
Minor Economic
Process
Year
and
month
L, L, L
113. Net change
in consumer
installment
credit1
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L, L, L
L, L, L
111. Change in
business and
consumer credit
outstanding1
Bank Reserves
Credit Difficulties
Credit Flows—Continued
Timing Class
MONEY AND CREDIT—Continued
110. Funds
raised by private
nonfinancial
borrowers in
credit markets1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
L, L, L
14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures1©
(Mil. dol.)
L, L T L
39. Percent
of consumer
installment
loans delinquent 30 days
and over1
(Percent)
Interest Rates
L, U, U
L, Lg, U
93. Free
reserves1©
94. Member
bank borrowings from the
Federal
Reserve1©
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
L, Lg, Lg
119. Federal
funds rate 1 ©
(Percent)
C Lg, Lg
114. Discount
rate on new
issues of 91-day
Treasury bills 1 ©
(Percent)
Revised 2
1986
January
February
March
75.25
78.84
35.45
12.4
5.6
4.7
411,284
3,238.9
3,252.2
3,278.8
2.27
2.29
2.41
341
213
135
770
884
761
8.14
7.86
7.48
7.04
7.03
6.59
April
May
June
60.43
59.93
51.44
2.2
7.7
3.6
575,340
1,766.8
3,572.8
3,467.6
2.44
2.52
2.53
-92
-38
128
893
876
803
6.99
6.85
6.92
6.06
6.12
6.21
July
August
September
62.69
54.25
73.09
6.4
6.9
3.7
738,552
7,464.6
2,748.4
5,126.7
2.22
2.33
2.24
169
-132
-282
741
872
1,008
6.56
6.17
5.89
5.84
5.57
5.19
October
November
December
75.35
21.72
0.50
8.6
4.7
13.3
777,632
2,870.8
2,170.2
4,326.8
2.25
2.34
2.26
-95
226
542
841
752
827
5.85
6.04
6.91
5.18
5.35
5.49
-10.39
31.74
22.08
7.0
1.9
2.1
r334,456
3,351.9
3,636.6
3,357.6
2.43
2.40
2.28
488
655
389
580
556
527
6.43
6.10
6.13
5.45
5.59
5.56
April
May
June
55.44
13.93
79.74
6.7
4.6
7.9
r591,436
r3,201.2
p2,872.4
p2,742.3
2.36
2.43
2.35
-166
44
414
993
1,035
776
6.37
6.85
6.73
5.76
5.75
5.69
July
August
September
67.61
56.14
57.46
1.6
4.1
8.9
r559,868
p2,142.7
pi,907.4
p2,026.2
2.34
2.37
2.35
89
385
-147
672
647
940
6.58
6.73
7.22
5.78
6.00
6.32
October
November
December
47.39
21.59
51.54
11.1
5.8
11.3
r642,964
p3 , 1 5 1 . 6
pi,610.6
p5 , 5 1 2 . 2
2.66
2.54
2.47
186
298
252
943
625
777
7.29
6.69
6.77
6.40
5.81
5.80
January
February
March
74.83
60.42
r62.29
13.2
10.6
4.1
p466,356
p4,101.8
p4,093.3
p3,370.9
2.44
2.32
2.19
213
737
-823
1,082
396
1,752
6.83
6.58
6.58
5.90
5.69
5.69
April
May
June
p43.75
(NA)
pl2.1
(NA)
p2,892.8
(NA)
(NA)
-2,134
p-1,550
2,993
p2,578
6.87
7.09
7.44
5.92
6.27
'6.48
1987
January
February
March
1988
3
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13, 32, 33, and 34.
1
The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 113 (132.08) in September 1985; series 111 (22.6) in June 1984; series 110 (948,376) in 4th quarter 1985; series 14 (829.2) in July 1983; series 39 (1.78) in February 1984; and series 93 (-7,328), series
94 (8,017), series 119 (11.64), and series 114 (10.49) in August 1984. 2 S e e ,,New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii. 3Average
for weeks ended June 1, 8, 15, and 22. ^Average for weeks ended June 2, 9, 16, and 23.
72
JUNE 1988
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Continued
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
MONEY AND CREDIT-Continued
Minor Economic
Interest Rates—Continued
Process
Timing Class
U, Lg- Lg
116. Yield on
new issues of
high-grade
Year
corporate
and
bonds1®
C Lg, Lg
115. Yield on
long-term
Treasury
bonds1©
U, Lg, Lg
117. Yield on
municipal
bonds, 20bond average 1 ®
Outstanding Debt
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
118. Secondary
market yields
on FHA
mortgages1®
67. Bank rates
on short-term
business
loans1®
Lg, Lg, Lg
109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks 1 ®
Lg, Lg, Lg
66. Consumer
installment
credit outstanding
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Commercial and industrial
loans outstanding
95. Ratio,
consumer installment credit
72. Current
dollars
101. Constant
(1982) dollars
month
outstanding
to personal
income
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
Revised
1986
2
(Mil. dol.)
Revised
(Percent)
2
10.33
9.76
8.95
9.51
9.07
8.13
8.08
7.44
7.08
10.78
10.59
9.77
9.29
9.50
9.50
9.10
524,025
530,595
533,549
353,832
351,158
349,913
342,860
345,288
348,866
15.21
15.32
15.32
8.71
9.09
9.39
7.59
8.02
8.23
7.20
7.54
7.87
9.80
10.07
9.98
8.13
June
8.83
8.50
8.50
538,585
543,579
547,866
345,217
346,954
346,298
346,603
346,954
346,645
15.28
15.42
15.53
July
August
September
9.11
9.03
9.28
7.86
7.72
8.08
7.51
7.21
7.11
10.01
9.80
9.90
7'.73
8.16
7.90
7.50
553,090
557,611
563,702
345,679
349,060
347,798
347,766
351,521
349,897
15.62
15.69
15.80
October
9.29
8.99
8.87
8.04
7.81
7.67
7.08
6.85
6.86
9.80
9.26
9.21
7! 28
7.50
7.50
7.50
569,981
571,791
571,833
349,817
351,485
359,268
350,870
352,189
360,349
15.93
15.93
15.83
8.59
8.58
8.68
7.60
7.69
7.62
6.61
6.61
6.66
8.79
8.81
8.94
7.50
7.50
7.50
570,967
573,612
575,452
369,837
368,213
365,395
0)367,997
364,567
361,062
15.72
15.62
15.62
9.36
9.95
9.64
8.31
8.79
8.63
7.55
8.00
7.79
10.02
10.61
10.33
8^24
7.75
8.14
8.25
580,072
581,233
587,878
365,690
365,227
364,635
358,871
355,972
354,015
15.67
15.67
15.82
9.70
10.09
10.63
8.70
8.97
9.58
7.72
7.82
8.26
10.38
10.55
11.22
8^20
8.25
8.25
8.70
593,512
598,190
602,978
360,324
357,470
359,324
348,139
344,383
346,503
15.87
15.91
15.94
10.80
10.09
10.22
9.61
8.99
9.12
8.70
7.95
7.96
10.90
10.76
10.63
8^47
9.07
8.78
8.75
606,927
608,726
613,021
362,492
362,909
367,994
348,215
348,281
353,161
15.75
15.85
15.84
9.81
9.43
9.68
8.82
8.41
8.61
7.69
7.49
7.74
10.17
9.86
10.28
8.37
8.75
8.51
8.50
619,258
624,294
r629,485
372,564
378,027
378,883
356,180
361,402
361,185
rl6.00
rl6.04
rl5.99
8.91
9.24
9.07
7.81
7.91
"7.79
10.46
10.84
[H>p633,131
388,584
(NA) [H>p390,272
367,282
p366,453
IH>pl6.07
(NA)
January
February
March
April
May
November
December
1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
':!*
1QQO
1900
January
February
March
April
May
June
3
9.92
10.25
10.09
3
8.49
5
8.50
8.84
9.00
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 60.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 34, and 35.
1
The following series reached their high values before 1986: series 116 (14.49), series 115 (13.00), and series 117 (10.67) in June 1984;
series 118 (15.01) in May 1984; series 67 (13.29) in 3d quarter 1984; and series 109 (13.00) in August 1984. 2 See "New Features and Changes
5/
for This Issue," page iii. 3 Average for weeks ended June 3, 10, 17, and 24. ^Average for weeks ended June 2, 9, 16, and 23.
Vverage for
June 1 through 24.
ItO
JUNE 1988
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
^ J
Year
and
month
950. Eleven leading
indicator components
(series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20,
29, 32, 36, 99, 106, 111)1
1-month
span
6-month
span
952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62, 77, 91, 95,
101, 109)
951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components (series
41,47,51,57)
1-month
span
DIFFUSION INDEXES
6-month
span
1-month
span
6-month
span
1986
961. Average weekly
hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers,
20 manufacturing
industries
1-month
span
9-month
span
Revised 3
Revised 3
962. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, 51
areas2
1-month
span
9-month
span
963. Employees on
private nonagricultural
payrolls, 186
industries
1-month
span
Rev i s cd
6-month
span
Revi sed 3
January
February
March
59.1
45.5
59.1
59.1
50.0
54.5
75.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
58.3
75.0
66.7
50.0
66.7
50.0
22.5
17.5
85.0
80.0
55.0
37.5
58.8
52.9
64.7
49.0
39.2
51.0
57.0
47.3
49.5
48.1
47.3
43.8
April
May
June
63.6
50.0
59.1
54.5
63.6
63.6
100.0
25.0
37.5
75.0
75.0
100.0
0.0
66.7
33.3
41.7
50.0
33.3
50.0
45.0
50.0
60.0
45.0
45.0
25.5
74.5
56.9
56.9
56.9
67.6
50.8
51.9
46.8
42.7
43.2
47.0
July
August
September
59.1
50.0
50.0
68.2
72.7
90.9
87.5
100.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
50.0
41.7
50.0
41.7
50.0
37.5
82.5
67.5
80.0
60.0
67.5
34.3
78.4
17.6
92.2
45.1
90.2
51.9
54.1
51.4
46.5
50.0
55.9
October
November
December
54.5
81.8
81.8
72.7
81.8
90.9
75.0
87.5
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
91.7
41.7
25.0
75.0
33.3
58.3
47.5
77.5
52.5
87.5
72.5
55.0
71.6
80.4
7.8
70.6
70.6
94.1
53.0
58.9
58.9
53.2
55.9
58.4
36.4
45.5
63.6
72.7
72.7
63.6
25.0
100.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
66.7
25.0
25.0
50.0
58.3
r50.0
65.0
65.0
35.0
70.0
70.0
75.0
88.2
35.3
52.0
69.6
82.4
78.4
50.8
59.2
61.1
64.6
64.3
63.0
40.9
45.5
r59.1
72.7
63.6
63.6
62.5
50.0
87.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
75.0
50.0
58.3
50.0
58.3
50.0
7.5
95.0
55.0
67.5
37.5
82.5
73.5
78.4
15.7
80.4
94.1
90.2
62.4
62.4
61.6
70.3
72.4
77.3
50.0
45.5
54.5
63.6
r54.5
59.1
100.0
100.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
41.7
41.7
91.7
50.0
58.3
58.3
57.5
55.0
25.0
62.5
70.0
87.5
64.7
84.3
37.3
92.2
59.8
r62.7
70.8
62.2
68.1
78.4
79.7
82.7
81.8
r63.6
59.1
50.0
75.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
66.7
75.0
25.0
r83.3
83.3
83.3
87.5
37.5
37.5
35.0
47.5
70.0
86.3
23.5
5.9
r27.5
r62.7
r80.4
67.3
67.8
68.4
77.8
77.0
76.5
50.0
"50.0
75.0
87.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
r66.7
58.3
33.3
66.7
75.0
47.5
27.5
57.5
p47.5
80.4
r29.4
r60.8
p49.0
61.6
61.6
62.2
73.2
p67.6
1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
rZZ.7
50.0
1988
January
February
March
r45.5
r45.5
r59.1
April
May
June
63.6
"44.4
5
50.0
83.3
5
6
75.0
50.0
6
77.5
p35.0
92.2
p43.1
62.7
p56.2
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d month, 6month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter.
Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The " r " indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; " e " , estimated; " a " , anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 36.
1
Values of this index prior to January 1984 include a twelfth component, series 12, which has been suspended from the current index.
Figures are the percent of components declining.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
^Excludes series 36 and 111, for which data are not available.
5
Excludes series 57, for which data are not available.
5
Excludes series 77 and 95, for which data are not available.
2
74
JUNE 1988
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
0 1
Year
and
month
964. Manufacturers'
new orders, 34
durable goods industries
1-month
span
9-month
span
965. Newly approved
capital appropriations
in 1982 dollars, 17
manufacturing
industries
1-quarter
span
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
967. Spot market
prices, 13 raw
industrial materials (u)
966. Industrial production, 24 industries
4-Q moving
average
1-month
span
6-month
span
1-month
span
9-month
span
968. Stock prices, 500
common stocks 1 ©
1-month
span
960. Net profits,
manufacturing, about
600 companies2®
9-month
span
(4-quarter span)
1986
January
February
March
55.9
47.1
44.1
38.2
44.1
44.1
36
April
May
June
58.8
26.5
55.9
47.1
51.5
50.0
24
July
August
September
44.1
39.7
64.7
32.4
67.6
52.9
59
October
November
December
50.0
44.1
63.2
67.6
79.4
73.5
65
50.0
r88.2
r64.7
79.4
42
67.6
52.9
April
May
June
44.1
42.6
r61.8
82.4
79.4
79.4
83
July
August
September
r64.7
39.7
58.8
70.6
70.6
70.6
59
October
November
December
52.9
47.1
55.9
r76.5
75.0
76.5
January
February
March
44.1
52.9
r57.4
p79.4
April
May
June
r67.6
p35.3
75.0
41.7
58.3
61.5
38.5
34.6
46.2
50.0
57.7
60.5
81.0
94.0
90.5
90.5
88.1
70
43
85.4
37.5
16.7
47.9
50.0
58.3
53.8
61.5
65.4
42.3
50.0
50.0
61.9
50.0
77.4
88.1
90.5
81.0
*70
46
75.0
35.4
52.1
47.9
75.0
79.2
50.0
50.0
65.4
50.0
65.4
73.1
35.7
67.9
42.9
81.0
71.4
78.6
'74
48
58.3
47.9
31.2
72.9
87.5
87.5
73.1
61.5
65.4
65.4
80.8
76.9
34.5
76.2
50.0
95.2
100.0
92.9
74
62
70.8
70.8
75.0
91.7
89.6
75.0
84.6
42.3
30.8
88.5
96.2
80.8
98.8
95.2
83.3
87.8
92.7
92.5
74
62
31.2
54.6
60.4
75.0
87.5
83.3
61.5
88.5
57.7
73.1
96.2
80.8
39.3
46.3
93.9
97.5
97.5
62.5
76
p62
50.0
70.8
70.8
91.7
91.7
95.8
73.1
76.9
61.5
88.5
88.5
76.9
81.3
95.0
8.8
10.0
12.5
10.0
*78
(NA)
70.8
62.5
50.0
p65
75.0
79.2
66.7
83.3
r79.2
83.3
53.8
46.2
50.0
53.8
69.2
69.2
0.0
0.0
53.8
17.5
8.0
12.8
(NA)
52.1
54.2
66.7
r83.3
p66.7
42.3
3 A. 6
65.4
69.2
61.5
75..0
88.8
37.0
5.1
1987
January
February
March
1988
r81.3
p54.2
3
57.7
65.4
73.1
3
37.2
3.8
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 74.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
1
Based on 43 industries through January 1986, on 42 industries through April 1987, on 41 industries through June 1987, on 40 industries
through March 1988, and on 39 industries thereafter. Data for component industries are not shown in table C2 but are available from the
source.
2
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
3
Based on average for June 7, 14, and 21.
JUNE 1988
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
^ J
970. Expenditures for new plant and equ pment,
21 industries
Year
and
quarter
a. Actual
expenditures
(1-Q span)
b. Later
projections
c. Early
projections
(1-Q span)
(1-Q span)
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Continued
971. New orders, manufacturing 1 ©
972. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade' ©
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade' @
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
66.7
73.8
61.9
52.4
61.9
76.2
66.7
42.9
66.7
71.4
76.2
38.1
74
74
76
75
82
84
82
80
70
69
70
70
80
81
81
78
76
74
75
74
84
84
84
81
19.0
52.4
42.9
81.0
47.6
66.7
42.9
85.7
64.3
66.7
38.1
52.4
76
76
74
75
82
83
84
78
70
71
70
70
78
81
81
78
72
73
74
74
81
84
83
80
40.5
61.9
85.7
64.3
42.9
78.6
85.7
85.7
50.0
71.4
66.7
61.9
78
83
82
82
80
83
85
86
74
74
75
76
78
81
83
82
78
80
82
83
82
83
85
86
73.8
85.7
76.2
61.9
57.1
64.3
82
84
84
86
76
82
82
82
80
85
84
86
1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1987
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1988
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
[ Q
Year
and
quarter
974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade1 ©
975. Level of inventone
manufacturing and trade
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Continued
Anticipated
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
978. Selling prices, retail
trade1©
977. Selling price s, wholesale
trade' ©
976. Selling price >, manufacturing1 ©
Anticipated
Actual
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
60
58
58
59
60
62
59
58
66
63
60
61
64
66
62
58
65
62
61
61
70
70
64
62
54
50
59
50
68
66
66
60
66
63
66
62
65
70
67
62
58
59
60
58
59
60
59
58
62
61
62
60
58
58
60
57
59
60
58
63
62
65
62
59
59
59
58
52
64
64
62
62
60
62
66
62
62
62
64
64
60
61
64
64
60
59
62
62
64
65
66
68
60
60
61
62
64
64
68
70
60
66
67
66
53
70
72
70
63
68
66
69
67
67
72
72
64
64
68
70
63
63
62
62
67
62
64
62
74
70
69
74
74
72
72
71
70
68
71
70
1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1987
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1988
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
NOTE; Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed at the end of the span. Series are seasonally adjusted except for those
indicated by(u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
x
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun £ Bradstreet, Inc. Dun §
Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.
76
JUNE 1988
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
| Q
Diffusion index components
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change
1988
1987
October
December
November
January
961. AVERAGE WEEKLY HOURS OF PRODUCTION OR NONSUPERVISORY WORKERS, MANUFACTURING1
MayP
April
March
February
2
(Hours)
+
All manufacturing industries
41.2
o
(88)
Percent rising of 20 components
41.2
41.0
(38)
+
41.1
41.0
40.9
(38)
(48)
(28)
(58)
40.3
40.1
39.5
39.3
+
41.2
41.1
(78)
(35)
+
40.6
40.1
+
39.5
39.3
42.3
Durable goods industries:
Lumber and wood products
+
40.4
+
40.7
40.4
40.2
Furniture and fixtures
+
40.1
+
40.2
39.8
39.6
Stone, clay, and glass products
+
42.5
42.4
42.5
42.0
Primary metal industries
+
43.6
43.5
43.4
o
Fabricated metal products
+
41.9
+
42.1
41.7
Machinery, except electrical
+
42.6
+
42.7
42.6
o
+
+
42.3
o
42.3
+
42.5
43.4
43.1
+
43.3
+
43.4
+
43.7
+
41.8
41.6
o
41.6
+
42.0
+
42.1
+
42.7
42.6
42.5
+
42.8
Electric and electronic equipment
+
41.0
41.0
40.9
+
41.1
Transportation equipment
+
42.4
42.3
41.5
+
42.0
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing
+
41.9
41.4
41.2
+
41.8
+
40.0
39.7
+
40.0
40.4
+
40.5
38.9
+
42.6
40.9
o
40.9
+
41.2
o
42.0
+
42.1
+
43.0
41.3
+
41.4
+
o
38.9
+
39.2
+
39.3
41.2
+
41.6
40.9
o
37.0
+
37.4
36.8
43.2
+
43.4
43.3
o
38.1
+
38.2
37.8
41.1
+
41.7
43.1
41.4
o
39.1
40.2
o
40.2
38.6
+
39.6
39.1
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
+
40.4
Tobacco manufacturers
+
41.4
40.9
Textile mill products
+
41.8
41.6
Apparel and other textile products
+
37.3
37.1
43.6
43.5
o
38.1
38.0
Chemicals and allied products
o
42.5
o
Petroleum and coal products
o
44.0
+
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products
+
41.9
+
Leather and leather products
+
38.8
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
o
+
40.5
41.5
o
40.6
40.3
39.2
38.6
41.5
+
41.6
36.8
+
37.0
o
38.1
40.1
+
o
37.1
43.3
+
43.4
o
38.0
+
38.1
42.5
o
42.5
o
42.5
42.4
+
42.5
44.1
+
44.5
44.2
43.3
+
43.7
+
42.0
+
42.4
41.8
41.4
+
41.7
o
38.4
+
38.6
37.6
36.8
+
37.4
114,319
+
rll5,252
43.3
42.2
44.1
42.0
+
44.3
+
37.8
41.7
36.8
41.5
3
964. MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES
(Millions of dollars)
+
All durable goods industries
111,095
Percent rising of 34 components
-
(53)
-
Machinery, except electrical
+
Electrical machinery
o
Transportation equipment
+
28,573
+
Other durable goods industries
-
22,056
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation,
10,437
11,077
+
(47)
Fabricated metal products
Primary metals
110,949
115,620
-
(56)
114,196
+
(44)
+
(57)
(53)
rll7,367
-
(35)
(68)
+
10,903
+
11,997
10,254
+
10,377
+
rlO,936
+
rll.lll
+
11,290
+
11,472
11,142
+
11,758
-
rll,744
+
rll,973
18,953
-
18,024
+
19,720
+
r20,216
+
r20,468
19,999
+
20,288
19,452
-
rl8,707
+
rl9,649
+
30,525
+
-
r31,376
r22,273
+
r31,430
-
+
r22,736
19,195
+
20,552
19,762
+
20,716
-
28,946
+
28,603
+
31,155
21,841
+
22,039
the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers:
+
22,586
22,487
( + ) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and ( - ) = falling.
114,761
+
11,717
11,878
19,969
20,341
28,599
22,257
The " r " indicates revised; " p " ,
preliminary; and " N A " , not available.
x
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source
2
Revised.
3
Data
change
See "New Features and Changes
for most of the diffusion
for the six major
JUNE 1988
agency.
for This
index components
Issue," page iii.
are not available
for publication, but they are included
in the totals and directions of
industry groups shown here.
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
^ Q
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS : Basic Data and Directions
1988
1987
Diffusion index components
November
October
of Char ge—Continued
January
December
Apri1r
March r
February r
MayP
966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION '
(1977 = 100)
+
All industrial production
132.5
+
(75)
Percent rising of 24 components
133.2
+
133.9
+
134.4
(52)
(67)
(79)
o
134.4
+
134.7
+
(67)
(54)
135.5
+
136.0
(54)
(81)
Durable manufactures:
+
(NA)
87.9
+
+
118.8
164.8
+
+
119.5
166.6
+
+
120.5
168.0
177.8
128.4
+
176.6
129.9
+
+
179.7
130.4
+
+
179.8
133.2
+
149.2
104.4
+
+
149.7
105.1
+
+
151.0
106.0
+
151.3
(NA)
+
+
141.9
107.0
141.4
106.4
-
140.0
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
117.7
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
+
+
117.1
162.9
+
+
117.6
163.6
175.9
128.1
+
+
177.4
128.6
+
145.5
105.6
+
+
148.2
105.0
138.9
106.5
+
+
140.1
110.5
+
141.2
105.8
+
+
117.3
109.4
+
118.2
107.8
+
116.2
108.7
146.0
175.2
+
+
148.3
175.7
+
+
150.6
176.9
+
149.9
177.5
+
141.5
94.6
+
144.4
93.3
+
+
147.9
96.1
o
+
147.9
96.3
+
166.7
59.6
+
+
169.9
60.7
+
170.6
57.5
+
170.5
58.3
+
Clay, glass, and stone products
Primary metals
+
+
118.9
90.6
+
120.5
90.2
120.1
90.6
+
+
Fabricated metal products
+
+
113.5
158.0
+
113.6
157.2
+
+
115.8
161.0
+
+
175.5
132.0
+
-
175.6
130.4
+
+
+
146.7
104.6
+
147.8
104.5
+
138.0
103.7
+
+
+
116.8
108.0
Printing and publishing
+
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Instruments
121.7
85.3
121.6
86.4
133.6
159.4
Miscellaneous manufactures
+
+
+
Electrical machinery
122.2
85.0
120.4
86.5
134.0
158.5
Transportation equipment
137.4
160.5
139.0
158.3
+
+
Nonelectrical machinery
+
+
+
+
129.8
156.0
(NA)
(NA)
137.1
159.2
136.3
158.0
+
+
+
Furniture and fixtures
Lumber and products
+
Nondurable manufactures:
Foods
Tobacco products
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Paper and products
Leather and products
+
+
+
115.3
108.5
+
+
117.5
108.7
148.0
178.7
+
+
149.5
180.3
+
149.4
181.3
(NA)
181.0
145.4
95.9
+
+
146.3
98.2
+
+
147.1
99.6
(NA)
96.1
172.2
59.5
+
o
173.6
59.5
(NA)
(NA)
84.7
129.1
+
(NA^
136.0
(NA)
135.8
94.0
136.6
+
+
94.9
137.6
93.8
(NA)
172.3
59.7
Mining:
Coal
+
85.6
140.3
+
+
90.4
142.9
Oil and gas extraction
+
+
94.1
131.0
+
+
94.2
134.1
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
N O T E : To f a c i l i t a t e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n ,
themonth-to-month
+
96.5
140.6
91.5
140.2
94.1
135.6
93.1
132.1
directions of change are s h o w n along with t h e n u m b e r s :
)
rising, ( o )
+
:
83.9
133.7
+
92.4
134.3
+
+
unchanged,
a n d( - ) - falling.
The " r "indicates
preliminary: a n d " N A " .n o t available.
x
2
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates
78
are used
to compute the percent
rising.
JUNE 1988
revised: " p "
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Continued
Q j
Diffusion index components
SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Direct ons of Change—Continued
19 38
1987
October
November
January
[)ecember
February
April
March
June 1
May
96 7. INDEX OF SPOT MARKET PRICED , RAW INDUSTRIALS 2
Raw industrials price index (1967
100) . . . .
+
Percent rising of /.? components
294.6
-
(54)
292.0
+
(46)
293.1
-
292.5
-
(42)
(50)
288.9
+
(35)
292.3
+
297.3
+
+
(65)
(58)
(65)
301.6
309.7
(73)
Dollars
Copper scrap
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
+
0.646
1.424
+
0.825
1.819
+
0.934
2.059
+
0.938
2.068
-
0.785
1.731
-
0.770
1.698
-
0.748
1.649
+
0.768
1.693
+
0.823
1.814
Lead s c r a p . .
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
0
0.280
0.617
-
0.276
0.608
-
0.272
0.600
-
0.252
0.556
-
0.230
0.507
-
0.214
0.472
-
0.210
0.463
+
0.215
0.474
+
0.230
0.507
Steel scrap .
(U.S. t o n ) . .
(metric t o n ) . .
+ 117.000
- 115.750
- 104.000
- 100.000
+ 115.000
- 109.000
128.969
127.591
114.639
110.230
126.765
120.151
- 108.750
119.875
- 103.000
113.537
+ 106.000
116.844
Tin
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
+
3.848
8.483
+
3.928
8.660
-
3.878
8.549
-
3.860
8.510
-
3.792
8.360
+
3.836
8.457
-
3.828
8.439
+
3.852
8.492
+
4.000
8.818
Zinc
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
-
0.449
0.990
+
0.451
0.994
+
0.454
1.001
+
0.458
1.010
+
0.469
1.034
+
0.492
1.085
+
0.542
1.195
+
0.579
1.276
+
0.640
1.411
Burlap
(yard)..
(meter)..
+
0.256
0.280
+
0.270
0.295
+
0.275
0.301
0
0.275
0.301
+
0,276
0.302
+
0.277
0.303
+
0.281
0.307
+
0.282
0.308
+
0.284
0.311
Cotton
(pound)..
(kilogram)..
-
0.636
1.402
+
0.645
1.422
-
0.622
1.371
-
0.595
1.312
-
0.574
1.265
+
0.594
1.310
+
0.597
1.316
+
0.619
1.365
+
0.636
1.402
(yard)..
(meter)..
-
0.905
0.990
-
0.655
0.716
-
0.630
0.689
-
0.620
0.678
-
0.590
0.645
-
0.536
0.586
+
0.550
0.601
-
0.530
0.580
-
0.507
0.554
Print cloth . .
Wool tops . .
(pound)
(kilogram)
+
4.100
9.039
0
4.100
9.039
+
4.380
9.656
+
4.750
10.472
+
5.000
11.023
+
5.420
11.949
+
6.208
13.686
+
7.100
15.653
-
6.600
14.550
Hides
(pound)..
(kilogram)
+
1.000
2.205
-
0.952
2.099
-
0.942
2.077
-
0.928
2.046
o
0.928
2.046
+
1.065
2.348
+
1.100
2.425
-
1.089
2.401
-
0.978
2.156
0
50.000
110.230
0
50.000
110.230
0
50.000
110,230
-
48.125
106.096
-
47.500
104.719
0
47.500
104.719
o
47.500
104.719
0
47.500
104.719
o
47.500
104.719
Rosin
(100 p o u n d s ) . .
(100 kilograms) . .
Rubber
(pound). .
(kilogram)..
-
0.538
1.186
-
0.532
1.173
+
0.540
1.190
+
0.547
1.206
-
0.536
1.182
+
0.549
1.210
+
0.555
1.224
+
0.593
1.307
+
0.716
1.578
fallow
(pound)..
(kilogram)
-
0.150
0.331
-
0.146
0.322
+
0.148
0.326
+
0.173
0.381
-
0.168
0.370
+
0.170
0.375
-
0.165
0.364
-
0.158
0.348
+
0.170
0.375
falling.
The " r " indicates revised: " p "
NOTE: Tofacilitate interpretation, the m o n t h - t o - m o n t h
preliminary: a n d " N A " ,not available.
directions of change are shown along with the numbers:
i • )
rising, ( o )
unchanged, and (
)
lr
I'he index is the average for June 1 through 22; component prices are averages for June 7, 14, and 21.
Data are not seasonally adjusted. These series are based on copyrighted data usei\ by permission; they may not be reproduced without
written permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc. Components are converted to metric unit s by the 1
iureau of Hconomic Analysis.
2
ito
JUNE 1988
79
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
R H
Year
and
quarter
50. Gross national product in 1982 dollars
200. Gross national product in current dollars
b. Difference
a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME
b. Difference
a. Total
c. Percent
change at
annual rate
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
c. Percent
change at
annual rate
217. Per capita
gross national
product in 1982
dollars
213. Final sales
in 1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
3,921.1
3,973.6
4,042.0
4,104.4
69.3
52.5
68.4
62.4
7.4
5.5
7.1
6.3
3,568.7
3,587.1
3,623.0
3,650.9
33.5
18.4
35.9
27.9
3.8
2.1
4.1
3.1
14,966
15,010
15,120
15,197
3,549.2
3,569.9
3,628.7
3,652.5
4,174.4
4,211.6
4,265.9
4,288.1
70.0
37.2
54.3
22.2
7.0
3.6
5.3
2.1
3,698.8
3,704.7
3,718.0
3,731.5
47.9
5.9
13.3
13.5
5.4
0.6
1.4
1.5
15,362
15,352
15,370
15,388
3,663.4
3,676.7
3,711.9
3,745.8
4,377.7
4,445.1
4,524.0
4,607.4
89.6
67.4
78.9
83.4
8.6
6.3
7.3
7.6
3,772.2
3,795.3
3,835.9
3,880.8
40.7
23.1
40.6
44.9
4.4
2.5
4.3
4.8
15,525
15,588
15,715
15,859
3,724.5
3,756.3
3,811.4
3,820.3
r4,665.1
r57.7
r5.1
r3,915.4
r34.6
r3.6
rl5,962
r3,854.3
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1988
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
^ H
Year
and
quarter
GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME-Continued
| Q
230. Total in current
dollars
Disposable personal income
224. Current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
225. Constant
(1982) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
231. Total in 1982
dollars
232. Durable goods
in current dollars
2 33. Durable goods
in 1982 dollars
227. Per capita in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1985
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
2,762.2
2,848.4
2,847.2
2,906.6
2,506.8
2,558.4
2,538.2
2,565.5
10,513
10,705
10,592
10,679
2,549.9
2,602.0
2,665.4
2,700.1
2,314.1
2,337.0
2,376.1
2,383.2
358.2
362.4
383.7
370.5
342.4
346.6
366.8
355.1
2,966.0
3,022.4
3,038.2
3,061.6
2,610.5
2,660.2
2,653.2
2,656.7
10,842
11,024
10,968
10,956
2,737.9
2,765.8
2,837.1
2,858.6
2,409.7
2,434.3
2,477.5
2,480.5
375.9
386.4
427.6
419.8
359.8
369.6
405.5
399.0
3,125.9
3,130.6
3,195.3
3,275.0
2,674.6
2,645.5
2,674.7
2,713.8
11,008
10,865
10,958
11,090
2,893.8
2,943.7
3,011.3
3,022.6
2,475.9
2,487.5
2,520.7
2,504.6
396.1
409.0
436.8
413.0
375.9
385.4
406.9
r3,322.6
r2,737.4
rll,160
r3,068.3
r2,527.9
r424.0
r394.7
1986
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
1987
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
384.5
1988
First quarter
Second quarter . . . .
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . . . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated by (u), that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or order.
Complete titles and sources are listed at the back of this issue. The "r" indicates revised; " p " , preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 40 and 4 1 .
JUNE 1988
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
^ H
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
j Q
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES-Continued
238. Nondurable
goods in 1982
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
237. Services in
current dollars
239. Services in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
240. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
241. Total in
1982 dollars
242. Fixed investment in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
243. Fixed investment in 1982
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
894.4
910.4
918.4
929.3
841.2
847.6
853.5
855.7
1,297.3
1,329.2
1,363.3
1,400.3
1,130.5
1,142.8
1,155.7
1,172.5
638.6
648.4
628.6
650.8
632.1
645.7
623.2
643.3
617.3
629.9
631.0
648.3
612.7
628.4
628.9
644.9
936.8
934.3
940.0
946.3
868.8
880.0
879.8
880.3
1,425.2
1,445.1
1,469.5
1,492.4
1,181.2
1,184.7
1,192.2
1,201.1
683.4
679.4
660.8
660.2
674.4
665.6
645.0
631.0
645.1
651.9
657.3
666.6
639.1
637.6
638.8
645.4
....
969.9
982.1
986.4
1,527.7
1,552.6
1,588.1
671.8
673.7
681.9
993.1
648.2
662.3
684.5
1,616.5
1,216.9
1,223.1
1,238.1
1,245.6
699.9
702.6
707.4
....
883.2
879.0
875.7
874.6
760.2
723.1
690.8
624.2
634.7
657.3
662.6
r998.4
r878.1
rl,645.9
rl,255.1
r762.7
r741.8
r704.9
r680.8
....
....
1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1987
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1988
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
• •
•SI
Year
and
quarter
GROSS PRIVATE
DOMESTIC INVEST.-Con.
245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars
30. Change in
business inventories in 1982
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
260. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
261. Total in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
262. Federal
Government in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
263. Federal
Government in
1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
266. State and
local government
in current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
267. State and
local government
in 1982 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
21.4
18.5
-2.4
2.5
19.5
17.3
-5.7
-1.6
784.1
800.5
832.8
857.0
703.4
712.1
738.6
753.7
336.3
339.4
361.9
378.0
308.4
310.7
332.5
345.3
447.8
461.1
470.9
479.0
395.0
401.4
406.1
408.4
38.3
27.5
3.5
-6.4
35.3
28.1
6.1
-14.4
846.9
867.2
878.5
886.3
737.6
751.6
757.2
771.8
356.7
368.4
371.2
368.6
322.1
330.6
332.6
344.6
490.2
498.8
507.3
517.7
415.5
421.0
424.6
427.1
51.6
40.3
22.9
759.6
766.7
366.9
379.6
382.1
69.4
388.9
327.3
332.6
336.3
347.6
529.3
537.6
546.9
559.9
432.3
434.1
435.4
....
47.6
39.0
24.6
60.5
896.2
....
r375.I
r322.7
r570.0
r443.2
....
....
1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1987
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
917.1
929.0
948.8
771.7
788.9
441.3
1988
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
r57.8
r61.0
r945.1
r766.0
....
....
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 4 1 , 42, and 43.
JUNE 1988
81
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
0
Imports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services
Net exports of goods and services
Year
• M
NATIONAL INCOME
• M i l AND ITS COMPONENTS
FOREIGN TRADE
and
quarter
255. Constant
(1982) dollars
250. Current
dollars
252. Current
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
256. Constant
(1982) dollars
dollars
257. Constant
(1982) dollars
253. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate
bil. dol.)
220. National income in current
280. Compensation of
dollars
employees
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1985
Second quarter
369
364
360
366
.7
.7
.5
.5
427
447
448
472
7
8
9
2
450.
472.
475.
495.
7
4
-84.7
-103.5
376.3
370.6
364.2
368.7
-93.8
-100.8
-110.5
-116.9
-123
-146
-161
-151
0
8
6
8
373.5
371.3
376.6
383.3
371 .5
370 .2
379 .6
388 .3
467
472
487
500
3
1
1
2
494.
517.
541.
540.
4
0
-112.2
-118.4
-123.7
-124.3
-135
-132
-138
-135
2
397.3
416.5
439.2
397 .8
414 . 5
437 .1
509 5
534 8
562 9
0
458.1
453 .5
582 4
533.
547.
575.
589.
r485.8
r477 .4
r 5 9 6 .9
....
-77.3
....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
-81 0
-107 7
-114 g
-129 3
-51.5
First quarter
4
8
3,156.
3,204.
3,254.
3,304.
5
4
4
4
2,314.9
2,351.5
2,386.3
2,430.5
3,364.
3,414.
3,438.
3,471.
2
1
2,464.8
2,487.6
2,515.1
2,552.0
1986
First quarter
Second quarter
....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
2
1
7
0
1987
First quarter
Second quarter
....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
7
.4
.8
3,548. 3
3,593. 3
3,659. 0
2
6
3
3,743. 5
2,589.9
2,623.4
2,663.5
2,713.5
r3,793 9
r2,765.0
1988
First quarter
Second quarter
r-120 .3
r-111.1
r597 8
....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
e
Vpar
T ear
and
1
282. Proprietors'
284. Rental income
income with IVA
of persons with
CCAdj
and CCAdj'
P H j SAVING
NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Contmued
1
988 Net interest
Zoo.
286. Corporate
profits before tax
290. Gross saving
295
Business
saving
292. Personal
saving
with IVA and
quarter
CCAdj'
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
(Ann rate,
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
bil. ciol.)
bil. c ol.)
bil. dol.)
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1985
252
256
252
268
.1
.4
.4
.0
7 3
9 1
9 .3
10 . 1
265
274
292
277
6
2
8
g
316
313
313
317
5
2
7
9
552.0
547.7
514.7
510.7
518.6
533.0
552.7
544.3
131.2
162.8
95.7
.8
14 .0
17 .4
17 .2
18 .4
288 0
282
286 4
....
270
298
292
297
281 1
326
328
327
321
6
7
5
7
557.8
538.7
516.2
515.3
553.4
547.7
551.5
544.4
138.4
166.0
108.9
109.0
....
320 .9
323 .1
....
322 .7
342 .7
20 .0
18 .9
17 .3
20 .9
294
296
314
313
0
8
9
0
323 .6
331 .1
340 .6
353 3
554.3
551.3
559.3
595.9
545.3
546.7
559.8
562.6
138.4
93.2
88.8
155.7
338 .5
r22 .2
r310 9
r357 3
r625.3
r566.8
rl55.9
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
....
Fourth quarter
....
118.5
1986
First quarter
Second quarter
....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
.1
.5
.8
1987
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1988
First quarter
Second quarter
....
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44, 45, and 46.
1
82
IVA, inventory valuation adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption adjustment.
JUNE 1988
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Continued
Q
298. Government
surplus or deficit
Year
and
quarter
g j
SAVING-Contmued
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
293. Personal
saving rate
Percent of gross national product
235. Personal consumption expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
247. Change in
business inventories
249. Residential
fixed investment
248. Nonresidential
fixed investment
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
251. Net exports of
goods and services
1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
-97.8
-148.1
-133.7
-152.1
4.8
5.7
3.4
4.1
65.0
65.5
65.9
65.8
11.0
11.2
10.9
11.0
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.8
0.5
0.5
-0.1
0.1
-1.3
-1.9
-2.1
-2.5
-134.0
-175.0
-144.1
-138.1
4.7
5.5
3.6
3.6
65.6
65.7
66.5
66.7
10.6
10.3
10.2
10.3
4.9
5.2
5.2
5.3
0.9
0.7
0.1
-0.1
-2.2
-2.4
-2.6
-2.7
-129.5
-88.6
-89.3
-122.3
4.4
3.0
2.8
4.8
66.1
66.2
66.6
65.6
9.7
9.8
10.1
10.0
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0
1.2
0.9
0.5
1.5
-2.6
-2.7
-2.7
-2.7
r-97.5
4.7
65.8
10.2
4.9
1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1987
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
....
1988
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
rl.2
r-2.4
....
....
gg|
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL
Percent of GNP-Contmued
Year
and
quarter
265. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services
Percent of national income
268. State and local
government purchases
of goods and services
(Percent)
INCOME—Continued
(Percent)
64. Compensation of
employees
(Percent)
283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCAd|l
285. Rental income
of persons with
CCAdj x
(Percent)
(Percent)
287. Corporate profits
before tax with
IVA and CCAdjl
289. Net interest
(Percent)
(Percent)
1985
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
8.6
8.5
9.0
9.2
11.4
11.6
11.7
11.7
73.3
73.4
73.3
73.6
8.0
8.0
7.8
8.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
8.4
8.6
9.0
8.4
10.0
9.8
9.6
9.6
....
8.5
8.7
8.7
8.6
11.7
11.8
11.9
12.1
73.3
72.9
73.1
73.5
8.0
8.7
8.5
8.6
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
8.6
8.3
8.3
8.1
9.7
9.6
9.5
9.3
....
8.4
8.5
....
8.4
8.4
12.1
12.1
12.1
12.2
73.0
73.0
72.8
72.5
9.0
9.0
8.8
9.2
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.6
8.3
8.3
8.6
8.4
9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4
12.2
72.9
8.9
0.6
8.2
9.4
....
....
1986
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
1987
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1988
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
r8.0
....
....
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
X
IVA, inventory valuation
JUNE 1988
adjustment; CCAdj, capital consumption
adjustment.
83
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
Q
Year
PRICE MOVEMENTS
Implicit price deflator for
Fixed-weighted price index,
Consumer price index
Consumer price index for
gross national product
gross domestic business product
for all urban consumers
all urban consumers, food
310. Index
and
310c. Change
311. Index
spans
l
spans
percent)
320. Index ©
1
320c. Change
320c. Change
322c. Change
322c. Change
over 1-month
over 6-month
over 1-month
over 6-month
1
1
1
spans
spans
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
(1982 = 100)
311c. Change
over 1-quarter
over 1-quarter
month
(1982 = 100)
percent)
322. Index
spans
spans 1
(Ann. rate,
(1982-84 = 100)
(Percent)
percent)
(Ann. rate,
(1982-84 = 100)
(Percent)
percent)
1986
1.9
109.6
109.3
108.8
0.3
-0.3
-0.4
0.6
-0.2
0.0
107.4
107.0
107.3
0.2
-0.4
0.3
3.0
2.6
1.9
1.9
108.6
108.9
109.5
-0.3
0.2
0.5
-0.5
0.4
1.7
107.6
108.0
108.2
0.3
0.4
0.2
3.4
5.9
6.1
2.3
109.5
109.7
110.2
0.0
0.2
0.3
2.6
2.8
2.2
109.2
110.1
110.5
0.9
0.8
0.4
5.8
5.8
5.8
1.8
110.3
110.4
110.5
0.2
0.3
0.2
3.7
4.1
4.4
110.7
111.1
111.3
0.2
0.4
0.2
5.0
3.7
3.3
4.2
111.2
111.6
112.1
0.7
0.4
0.4
5.0
5.1
5.3
111.9
112.1
112.3
0.5
0.2
0.2
3.6
4.0
4.7
4.0
112.7
113.1
113.5
0.4
0.4
0.3
4.4
4.5
4.1
112.7
113.3
113.9
0.4
0.5
0.5
3.4
3.2
4.0
3.2
113.8
114.4
115.0
0.3
0.4
0.3
3.9
113.8
113.9
114.5
-0.1
0.1
0.5
3.6
2.7
2.5
115.3
115.4
115.4
0.3
0.3
0.2
114.7
114.8
115.3
0.2
0.1
0.4
3.2
2.5
2.1
115.7
116.0
116.5
0.3
0.2
0.5
115.6
115.3
115.7
0.3
-0.3
0.3
3.2
3.9
April
117.1
May
117.5
0.4
0.3
116.5
117.0
0.7
0.4
1.8
January
112.9
112.9
February
March
2.9
April
113.4
113 *. 7
May
June
3.6
July
11411
114.7
August
September
0.7
October
November
114.6
114.*9
December
1987
4.2
January
115.8
116.1
February
March
3.5
April
116.9
117 *. i
May
June
2.8
July
117.9
117.9
August
September
2.7
October
November
December
3.3
118.8
118.7
3.7
3.6
3.7
3.2
3.7
1988
rl.4
January
February
rll9.1
March
2.9
119.7
3.9
4.0
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 48 and 49.
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and
1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter.
84
JUNE 1988
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Q j
Produce price index, all commodities
Year
and
month
330. Index ©
(1982-100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Percent)
Producer price index, crude materials
tor turther processing
Producer price index, industrial commodities
330c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1 ®
330c. Change
over 1-month
spans 1 ©
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued
335. Index ©
(1982 = 100)
335c. Change
over 1-month
spans 1 ©
(Percent)
335c. Change
over 6-month
spans 1 ©
(Ann. rate,
percent)
331. Index
331c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(1982 = 100)
(Percent)
331c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1986
January
February
March
103.2
101.7
100.3
-0.4
-1.5
-1.4
-6.3
-6.5
-7.0
103.7
102.1
100.5
-0.4
-1.5
-1.6
-7.6
-7.9
-8.1
94.2
90.4
88.3
-1.2
-4.0
-2.3
-17.8
-17.4
-18.2
April
May
June
99.6
100.0
99.9
-0.7
0.4
-0.1
-7.2
-4.7
-1.8
99.8
99.8
99.8
-0.7
0.0
0.0
-9.2
-6.7
-3.4
85.4
86.8
86.2
-3.3
1.6
-0.7
-15.9
-8.2
-4.0
July
August
September
99.4
99.3
99.4
-0.5
-0.1
0.1
0.2
-0.4
-0.4
98.8
98.6
98.8
-1.0
-0.2
0.2
-1.4
-1.2
-1.2
86.4
86.6
86.5
0.2
0.2
-0.1
5.0
1.4
0.9
October
November
December
99.7
99.8
99.7
0.3
0.1
-0.1
2.2
3.5
3.7
99.1
99.2
99.2
0.3
0.1
0.0
3.3
4.5
4.7
87.5
87.4
86.6
1.2
-0.1
-0.9
6.3
7.8
9.7
January
February
March
100.5
101.0
101.2
0.8
0.5
0.2
4.5
5.7
6.7
100.4
100.8
101.1
1.2
0.4
0.3
5.1
5.5
6.6
89.1
89.9
90.6
2.9
0.9
0.8
11.3
16.4
19.3
April
May
June
101.9
102.6
103.0
0.7
0.7
0.4
6.1
5.6
5.0
101.6
101.9
102.4
0.5
0.3
0.5
5.5
5.8
4.8
92.3
94.3
94.6
1.9
2.2
0.3
15.1
15.7
12.3
July
August
September
103.5
103.8
103.7
0.5
0.3
-0.1
4.4
3.1
2.3
103.1
103.7
103.5
0.7
0.6
-0.2
4.8
4.6
3.5
95.6
96.7
96.0
1.1
1.2
-0.7
8.4
1.3
0.2
October
November
December
104.1
104.2
104.2
0.4
0.1
0.0
r2.1
1.5
2.3
104.0
104.2
104.2
0.5
0.2
0.0
r2.5
1.4
2.3
96.1
94.9
94.7
0.1
-1.2
-0.2
r-3.5
-4.5
-3.9
rlO4.6
104.6
3.3
4.5
rlO4.4
104.4
104.7
r0.2
rO.O
0.3
3.1
3.7
r93.9
94.5
94.1
r-0.8
r0.6
-0.4
-1.7
3.2
104.9
r0.4
rO.O
0.3
105.8
106.5
0.9
0.7
105.6
106.1
0.9
0.5
95.3
96.4
1.3
1.2
1987
1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
C h a n g e s are centered within the spans:
ItO
JUNE 1988
1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
85
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
Q |
Producer price index, intermediate
materials, supplies, and components
Year
and
month
(1982 = 100)
Producer price index, capital equipment
332c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
332c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
332. Index
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Percent)
PRICE MOVEMENTS—Continued
333c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
333 Index
(1982-100)
(Percent)
Producer price index, finished consumer goods
333c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
334. Index
334c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(1982 = 100)
(Percent)
334c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1986
102.3
101.1
99.9
-0.6
-1.2
-1.2
-6.5
-7.3
-8.0
108.6
108.7
108.9
0.1
0.1
0.2
1.9
1.7
2.0
104.5
102.6
101.2
-0.8
-1.8
-1.4
-6.8
-6.9
-7.8
April
May
June
99.0
98.8
98.7
-0.9
-0.2
-0.1
-8.2
-6.0
-2.6
109.2
109.3
109.6
0.3
0.1
0.3
2.0
1.8
2.0
100.4
101.0
101.1
-0.8
0.6
0.1
-8.1
-3.7
-0.2
July
August
September
98.0
98.0
98.6
-0.7
0.0
0.6
-1.6
-1.0
-0.6
109.7
109.7
2.4
2.8
2.2
100.2
100.7
110.0
0.1
0.0
0.3
101.1
-0.9
0.5
0.4
2.0
0.8
0.6
October
November
December
98.2
98.3
98.4
-0.4
0.1
0.1
2.1
3.3
2.4
110.5
110.8
110.8
0.5
0.3
0.0
2.8
2.4
2.0
101.4
101.4
101.4
0.3
0.0
0.0
3.2
2.8
3.0
99.0
99.6
99.8
0.6
0.6
0.2
4.1
5.2
6.0
111.2
111.0
111.1
0.4
-0.2
0.1
1.6
1.3
1.1
101.8
102.1
102.6
0.4
0.3
0.5
3.8
4.4
4.6
April
May
June
100.2
100.8
101.3
0.4
0.6
0.5
5.9
5.7
5.9
111.4
111.5
111.4
0.3
0.1
-0.1
0.7
1.6
2.5
103.3
103.6
103.7
0.7
0.3
0.1
4.6
4.4
4.1
July
August
September
101.9
102.4
102.7
0.6
0.5
0.3
6.1
5.6
5.0
111.6
111.9
112.5
0.2
0.3
0.5
1.1
1.1
1.6
104.1
104.3
104.7
0.4
0.2
0.4
2.3
1.7
0.6
October
November
December
103.2
103.6
103.8
0.5
0.4
0.2
4.6
3.5
4.1
112.0
112.1
112.3
-0.4
0.1
0.2
r2.2
1.4
1.2
104.5
104.5
104.0
-0.2
0.0
-0.5
r0.6
-0.8
-0.2
January
February
March
104.2
104.2
104.8
0.4
0.0
0.6
4.7
5.1
rl!2.8
112.7
113.2
r0.4
r-0.1
0.4
2.5
3.1
rlO4.4
103.9
104.6
r0.4
r-0.5
0.7
1.2
2.1
April
May
June
105.6
106.2
113.4
113.8
0.2
105.1
0.6
0.4
105.6
0.5
0.5
January
February
March
1987
January
February
March
1988
0.8
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.
x
Changes are centered within the spans:
1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
JUNE 1988
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
•
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonagricultural payrolls 1
Year
Current-dollar earning
and
Current-dollar compensation
Real earnings
month
340. Index
(1977 = 100)
1986
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Revised 3
340c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
340c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1977 = 100)
(Percent)
(3)
Revised 3
Revised 3
(3)
341. Index
341c. Change
over 1-month
spans2
341c. Change
345. Index
over 6-month
spans
2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1977 = 100)
345c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2
345c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Revised 3
167.5
168.2
168.5
-0.2
0.4
0.2
2.6
2.4
1.7
93.6
94.3
95.0
-0.5
r0.8
r0.7
2.8
3.1
2.3
179.3
168.5
168.8
169.3
0.0
0.2
0.2
2.1
1.6
1.6
95.4
95.4
95.2
0.4
0.0
-0.2
3.4
1.9
0.3
180.5
169.2
169.6
169.8
rO.O
r0.2
r0.2
2.2
2.8
2.3
95.2
95.3
95.1
0.0
rO.O
-0.1
-0.3
0.3
0.2
18K8
170.3
171.2
171.2
0.3
r0.5
rO.O
2.5
2.8
2.7
95.3
95.5
95.3
0.1
0.3
r-0.2
-1.1
-1.3
-1.7
183.6
171.3
171.9
172.1
0.1
r0.4
rO.l
2.6
2.0
2.1
94.7
94.7
94.3
r-0.7
rO.O
r-0.3
-2,4
-3.2
-3.2
184 !i
172.5
172.9
172.9
0.3
r0.2
rO.l
2.3
2.6
2.9
94.1
94.0
93.8
-0.2
r-0.1
-0.2
-2.1
-2.0
-1.3
185.5
173.2
174.1
174.6
0.2
0.5
0.3
2.8
3.3
3.3
93.7
93.7
93.7
-0.1
0.0
rO.O
-1.1
-0.5
-0.2
187.1
174.9
175.6
175.7
0.2
r0.4
0.1
4.0
3.0
2.8
93.6
93.8
93.7
-0.2
r0.2
r-0.1
0.2
0.0
-0.5
188! 7
176.6
176.7
177.0
rO.5
rO.l
0.2
3.4
p3.7
93.8
93.7
93.5
rO.l
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
p-0.4
177.8
pl78.8
0.5
p0.6
93.5
p93.6
0.0
pO.l
3.9
3.6
2.8
3.4
2.9
2^7
4.0
2.*8
1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1.1
2*.9
3.0
2.8
3.5
p3^3
3.4
1988
January
February
March
April
May
p3.4
pl9CL2
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
3
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
2
lltll
JUNE 1988
87
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
K M
Negotiated wage and
benefit decisions
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector—Continued
Year
and
month
348. Average
first-year
changes (u)
Real compensation
346. Index
(1977 = 100)
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY—Continued
346c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Output per hour, all persons, business sector
349. Average
changes over
life of
contract (u)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
370. Index
(1977 = 100)
370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
358. Index of
output per hour,
all persons,
nonfarm business sector
(1977 = 100)
1986
2.3
January
February
March
99*3
0.6
4.2
April
May
June
100.4
July
August
September
100.5
October
November
December
100.8
1.2
1.9
0.7
1.6
2.1
1.2
0.4
1.3
-i'o
107.7
1*5
107.7
0.2
107*5
0*4
107*5
1.6
107.6
1.3
108*0
-0.3
109*6
2.7
1.3
0.6
109.7
0.7
0.5
5.8
109.5
2.4
-0.1
109.6
1987
January
February
March
99.8
April
May
June
99.3
July
August
September
99.3
October
November
December
99.2
-4.1
1.1
2.1
-1.2
-1.7
4.1
3.9
-i*6
-0.3
2.5
liol i
1.4
4.7
2.1
111! 3
p-0.6
-0.3
0.5
109.7
3.4
2.4
rl.9
109 .'l
-1.5
110.9
108.8
1988
January
February
March
pO.O
p99.2
pi.7
pi.8
r3.2
rill.8
rlO9.8
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
1
Changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter chanj es are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are
placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
JUNE 1988
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
j j j Q CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
447. Number
unemployed,
full-time
workers
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month
441. Total
442. Civilian
employment
Number unemployed
37. Persons
unemployed
444. Males
20 years
and over
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
445. Females
20 years
and over
446. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
448. Number
employed
part time
for economic
reasons
(Thous.)
Civilian labor force participation rates
451. Males
20 years
and over
(Percent)
452. Females
20 years
and over
(Percent)
453. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age
(Percent)
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
January
February
March
116,751
116,951
117,183
108,904
108,524
108,853
7,847
8,427
8,330
3,521
3,766
3,778
2,920
3,180
3,109
1,406
1,481
1,443
6,447
6,825
6,861
5,301
5,209
5,307
78.3
78.1
78.1
55.0
55.1
55.1
53.4
54.5
54.9
April
May
June
117,334
117,481
118,112
108,961
109,037
109,671
8,373
8,444
8,441
3,724
3,836
3,791
3,102
3,116
3,133
1,547
1,492
1,517
6,814
6,926
6,792
5,564
5,600
5,381
78.0
78.0
78.2
55.2
55.3
55.7
55.5
55.1
55.4
July
August
September
118,115
118,150
118,345
109,837
110,035
110,047
8,278
8,115
8,298
3,820
3,661
3,831
3,025
3,005
2,991
1,433
1,449
1,476
6,691
6,553
6,792
5,149
5,288
5,337
78.1
77.9
78.1
55.7
55.8
55.7
54.6
54.9
54.9
October
November
December
118,424
118,671
118,576
110,194
110,457
110,657
8,230
8,214
7,919
3,817
3,807
3,728
3,007
2,971
2,826
1,406
1,436
1,365
6,704
6,672
6,481
5,438
5,270
5,324
77.9
78.2
78.3
55.8
55.8
55.6
54.9
54.4
53.4
January
February
March
118,978
119,230
119,246
111,014
111,344
111,455
7,964
7,886
7,791
3,691
3,606
3,553
2,877
2,858
2,832
1,396
1,422
1,406
6,473
6,397
6,248
5,211
5,458
5,180
78.2
78.2
78.1
55.8
55.9
55.9
54.3
54.7
54.3
April
May
June
119,363
119,907
119,608
111,806
112,334
112,300
7,557
7,573
7,308
3,454
3,456
3,422
2,733
2,700
2,634
1,370
1,417
1,252
6,083
6,053
6,000
5,104
5,058
4,979
78.1
78.2
78.0
56.0
56.2
56.2
54.2
55.2
53.6
July
August
September
119,890
120,306
119,963
112,639
113,050
112,872
7,251
7,256
7,091
3,323
3,258
3,118
2,680
2,661
2,671
1,248
1,337
1,302
5,852
5,812
5,636
5,154
5,016
4,986
78.0
77.9
77.9
56.3
56.3
56.2
54.0
56.3
54.4
October
November
December
120,387
120,594
120,722
113,210
113,504
113,744
7,177
7,090
6,978
3,174
3,135
3,063
2,615
2,620
2,611
1,388
1,335
1,304
5,725
5,684
5,601
5,067
5,241
5,004
78.0
78.0
77.8
56.4
56.5
56.6
55.1
54.8
55.5
January
February
March
121,175
121,348
120,903
114,129
114,409
114,103
7,046
6,938
6,801
3,154
3,071
3,089
2,581
2,635
2,411
1,312
1,232
1,301
5,603
5,549
5,498
5,145
5,254
5,106
77.9
78.2
77.9
56.7
56.8
56.6
56.0
54.9
53.9
April
May
June
121,323
120,978
114,713
114,195
6,610
6,783
2,909
3,072
2,442
2,481
1,259
1,230
5,302
5,418
4,924
4,623
78.2
77.9
56.7
56.4
54.2
54.0
1986
1987
1988
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 5 1 .
ItO
JUNE 1988
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Q j
RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
State and local governmentx
"ederal Government
Year
and
500. Surplus
or deficit
j Q
501. Receipts
502. Expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
510. Surplus
or deficit
Advance measures of defense activity
511. Receipts
512. Expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
month
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
DEFENSE INDICATORS
517. Defense
Department
gross obligations incurred
(Mil. dol.)
525. Defense
Department
prime contract awards
543. Defense
Department
gross unpaid
obligations
outstanding
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
548. Manufacturers'
new orders,
defense
products
(Mil. dol.)
1986
-196.1
807.6
1,003*7
62.1
608.1
546.1
28,411
30,247
30,969
12,843
9,715
13,822
185,822
188,008
190,756
8,502
9,193
12,214
-23O*.2
816.9
1,047*1
55*i
6li*5
556.4
29,758
30,267
33,056
13,136
11,052
12,949
188,903
189,004
193,207
8,071
9,036
8,314
-203*7
832.4
1,036.1
59.6
626*2
566.7
31,199
29,968
30,678
13,810
11,432
12,315
196,185
198,635
199,295
10,062
7,900
10,304
-188.7
852*5
1,041*2
50.6
629.1
578*5
28,383
30,341
26,583
9,450
11,866
11,581
198,408
198,337
197,769
7,827
10,031
7,738
-170*5
879.3
1,049*8
41*0
632.1
591.1
25,911
34,669
28,986
10,617
12,545
12,167
196,585
199,440
199,308
5,813
7,344
9,658
-139*2
922.9
1,062*. 1
50.6
651.3
600.7
33,794
32,801
30,475
12,138
12,103
12,748
200,411
202,504
204,177
rll,275
r9,078
rl0,009
-135.8
923.0
1,058*8
46*5
657.6
611.1
31,867
32,619
34,065
13,667
12,881
13,609
207,148
209,556
215,074
9,923
9,521
9,112
-160.2
937.6
1,097*8
37.9
663*.5
625.*6
29,233
30,794
24,532
10,613
9,383
11,912
212,355
212,086
205,974
10,001
9,739
9,048
r-143.1
r954.0
r l , 097.0
r45.6
r682.5
r636.9
31,157
33,243
31,595
7,871
11,080
11,901
208,366
210,637
212,335
9,104
8,556
r9,804
p33,172
(NA)
pl6,222
(NA)
p210,520
(NA)
r9,988
p8,328
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on [
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.
1
90
Based on national income and product accounts.
JUNE 1988
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Continued
Q j
DEFENSE INDICATORS—Continued
National defense
purchases
Intermediate and final measures of defense activity
Year
and
month
557. Index of
industrial
production,
defense and
space equipment
(1977 = 100)
559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense
products
561. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, defense
products
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
580. Defense
Department
net outlays,
military
(Mil. dol.)
588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense
products
(Mil. dol.)
570. Employment, defense
products industries
577. Military
on active
duty @
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
Revised
1986
Defense Department
personnel
578. Civilian,
direct hire
employment
(Thous.)
564. Federal
purchases of
goods and
services,
national
defense
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
565. National
defense purchases as a
percent of
GNP
(Percent)
l
178.9
178.0
178.6
31,787
31,471
32,467
160,175
161,009
164,969
20,152
21,586
23,342
7,779
8,359
8,254
1,570
1,572
1,572
2,157
2,160
2,160
1,103
1,087
1,084
266.6
6.4
32,962
33,329
33,549
164,580
164,951
164,147
22,101
22,921
21,954
8,460
8,665
9,118 -
1,581
1,588
1,564
2,150
2,150
2,143
1,081
1,072
1,060
278.2
6^6
June
179.8
180.2
180.7
July
August
September
182.4
183.7
184.6
33,618
33,810
34,206
165,201
164,505
165,918
22,538
21,714
23,886
9,008
8,596
8,891
1,592
1,589
1,590
2,150
2,161
2,169
1,059
1,052
1,072
287.6
6.7
October
185.6
185.5
186.2
34,482
34,330
34,005
164,584
164,887
162,098
22,324
21,168
22,512
9,161
9,728
10,527
1,592
1,591
1,590
2,177
2,181
2,178
1,069
1,063
1,059
279^0
6.5
187.3
188.9
188.6
34,240
34,332
34,197
159,557
158,477
158,532
22,243
24,096
23,259
8,354
8,424
9,603
1,593
1,591
1,588
2,179
2,172
2,168
1,061
1,067
1,070
287^5
6.6
r34,764
34,866
34,849
rl60,947
rl60,756
161,328
23,593
22,760
24,046
r8,860
r9,269
9,437
1,584
1,587
1,585
2,158
2,153
2,151
1,072
1,068
1,070
294.5
6.6
June
189.2
189.3
188.6
July
August
September
188.7
189.1
189.8
35,599
36,065
36,311
162,345
163,071
162,659
22,858
24,340
21,513
8,906
8,795
9,524
1,588
1,589
1,590
2,158
2,167
2,174
1,074
1,076
1,090
299.0
6*6
October
190.3
188.7
188.9
36,868
37,609
37,026
163,526
164,025
162,979
25,816
21,276
26,329
9,134
9,240
10,094
1,593
1,592
1,592
2,172
2,174
2,167
1,090
1,087
1,083
299.8
6.5
190.6
rl91.0
rl89.8
37,103
37,305
r37,305
163,650
163,706
rl64,013
20,786
23,441
23,752
8,433
8,500
r9,497
1,599
1,596
1,587
2,166
2,162
2,142
1,077
1,071
1,067
r300.4
r6.4
rl89.1
pl88.7
P37,534
(NA)
rl65,529
pl65,436
r26,548
p20,118
r8,472
p8,421
pi,588
(NA)
r2.1Q8
p2,100
pi,059
(NA)
January
February
March
April
May
November
December
1987
January
February
March
April
May
November
December
1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.
^ e e "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
JUNE 1988
91
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Q
602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments
604. Exports ot domestic
agricultural products
MERCHANDISE TRADE
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
612. General imports
Year
and
month
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
1986
Revised
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
x
Revised
614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum
products
616. Imports of automobiles and parts
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
x
January
February
March
18,557
18,520
17,999
2,320
2,283
2,135
3,854
4,294
3,740
30,600
28,866
29,124
4,978
4,254
3,578
5,044
5,378
5,018
April
May
June
18,762
19,023
20,038
2,043
1,960
1,819
3,981
3,644
3,582
30,287
29,390
29,960
2,084
2,718
2,731
5,044
5,054
5,535
July
August
September
19,731
17,970
18,282
2,062
2,231
2,111
3,585
4,091
3,812
30,969
30,122
31,738
2,483
2,225
2,435
6,242
6,280
4,909
October
November
December
19,728
19,295
19,255
2,447
2,204
2,352
3,932
4,138
4,227
30,953
32,666
30,762
2,155
2,788
2,299
5,790
7,156
5,483
January
February
March
18,399
19,327
20,171
1,926
2,047
2,157
3,452
4,404
4,098
31,666
31,825
32,271
2,269
3,598
3,513
4,882
6,322
5,329
April
May
June
20,402
20,260
21,107
2,234
2,410
2,445
4,122
4,176
4,338
31,978
32,514
34,418
2,842
3,685
3,375
5,516
6,093
5,823
July
August
September
22,430
20,883
21,810
2,956
2,520
2,625
4,260
4,420
4,717
34,625
34,492
34,582
4,125
4,574
3,439
5,800
6,008
5,307
October
November
December
22,074
23,094
24,152
2,593
2,409
2,472
4,407
5,371
5,371
35,966
35,316
36,586
3,780
3,292
3,158
6,776
6,342
6,560
January
February
March
24,488
24,518
26,876
2,634
2,936
3,030
(NA)
34,258
37,729
36,644
(NA)
(NA)
April
May
June
26,214
(NA)
3,030
1987
1988
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
x
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
92
34,381
(NA)
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Continued
Q |
GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)
Goods and services
Year
667. Balance
668.
Exports
Income on investment
Merchandise, adjustedx
669.
622.
Imports
Balance
618.
Exports
620.
Imports
and
651. U.S. investment abroad
month
(Mil. dol.)
1986
Revised 2
(Mil.
dol.)
Revised 2
(Mil.
dol.)
Revised
(Mil.
2
dol.)
2
( )
(Mil.
dol.)
2
( )
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
2
Revised 2
( )
652. Foreign
investment in
the United States
(Mil.
dol.)
Revised 2
January
February
-29,485
93,067
122,552
-35,433
54,113
89,546
24,352
17,357
-29,629
94,088
123,717
-33,861
56,946
90,807
22,248
17,533
-31,288
93,493
124,781
-36,721
56,268
92,989
21,845
15,729
-33,118
94,408
127,526
-38,532
56,642
95,174
21,667
16,350
-34,657
98,907
133,564
-39,871
56,791
96,662
24,791
19,715
-37,727
100,353
138,080
-39,552
59,864
99,4i6
22,429
20,737
-38,987
106,318
145,305
-39,665
64,902
104,567
23,289
22,222
-29,150
119,247
148,397
-41,192
68,013
109,205
33,248
20,709
p-36,600
pll8,847
pl55,447
p-35,945
p74,672
pllO ,617
p25,ii4
p25,709
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1987
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on |
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department
of Defense purchases (imports).
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
JUNE 1988
93
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Q |
Year
and
month
47. United States,
index of industrial production
(1977 = 100)
1
721. OECD
European countries, index of
industrial
production
728. Japan,
index of industrial production
(1977-100)
(1977-100)
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
725. West
726. France,
index of industrial production
Germany, index
of industrial
production
(1977 = 100)
722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
(1977 = 100)
723. Canada,
index of industrial production
727. Italy, index
of industrial
production
(1977 = 100)
(1977 = 100)
(1977 = 100)
1986
January
February
March
126.4
125.5
123.9
112
113
112
144.6
144.8
144.8
113
113
113
107
105
105
108
110
109
108.4
110.9
113.8
127.6
128.1
125.5
April
May
June
124.7
124.3
124.1
115
111
114
144.4
144.2
144.5
117
112
116
109
104
108
111
109
109
114.9
108.7
113.9
128.9
126.9
125.5
July
August
September
124.8
124.9
124.5
115
114
114
144.2
141.9
145.8
117
114
114
109
109
109
111
111
111
111.1
110.0
109.8
126.8
125.6
126.3
October
November
December
125.3
125.7
126.8
114
114
113
143.8
141.9
142.0
114
114
112
109
107
107
111
111
110
111.0
112.2
111.1
126.2
126.2
128.5
January
February
March
126.2
127.1
127.4
112
115
115
141.3
139.7
142.1
111
114
113
105
109
109
110
112
112
111.8
115.2
117.6
128.0
129.2
129.9
April
May
June
127.4
128.2
129.1
115
116
116
140.9
138.6
144.6
114
116
114
108
110
111
112
113
113
115.5
119.7
116.2
129.9
130.7
132.0
July
August
September
130.6
131.2
131.0
115
115
116
146.3
144.1
148.4
112
118
116
110
110
111
113
115
114
115.6
111.0
115.1
131.8
134.2
135.0
October
November
December
132.5
133.2
133.9
117
117
117
150.8
149.9
152.9
116
116
117
110
111
112
115
115
115
120.1
118.7
114.0
135.8
136.5
rl37.2
134.4
134.4
134.7
pll8
(NA)
153.7
pl57.2
(NA)
pll7
(NA)
111
pill
(NA)
115
pll2
(NA)
124.2
pll8.5
(NA)
rl37.3
rl36.7
pl37.6
1987
1988
January
February
March
April
May
June
(NA)
rl35.5
pl36.0
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
94
JUNE 1988
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Q
United States
Year
and
month
320. Index ©
(1982-84-100)
Japan
320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
738. Index ©
(1982-84 = 100)
CONSUMER PRICES
West Germany
738c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
735. Index ©
(1982-84 = 100)
United Kingdom
France
735c. Change
over 6-month
spansx
(Ann. rate,
percent)
736. Index ©
(1982-84 = 100)
736c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
732. Index©
(1982-84 = 100)
732c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1986
January
February
March
109.6
109.3
108.8
0.6
-0.2
0.0
105.0
104.9
104.8
1.2
0.4
0.0
105.5
105.2
104.9
-0.4
-0.8
-1.3
116.1
115.9
116.1
1.4
1.2
1.2
113.1
113.5
113.7
3.2
2.9
1.8
April
May
June
108.6
108.9
109.5
-0.5
0.4
1.7
105.1
105.4
104.9
-0.6
0.0
-0.6
104.9
104.9
105.0
-1.9
-1.1
-0.6
116.6
116.9
117.2
1.6
2.4
3.3
114.8
115.0
114.9
1.1
1.1
2.1
July
August
September
109.5
109.7
110.2
2.6
2.8
2.2
104.6
104.4
104.9
-1.7
-0.4
-0.6
104.5
104.2
104.4
-1.1
-1.5
-0.8
117.4
117.5
118.0
2.9
2.9
3.1
114.6
114.9
115.5
2.8
4.2
5.9
October
November
December
110.3
110.4
110.5
3.7
4.1
4.4
105.0
104.5
104.3
-1.9
-2.3
-0.2
104.1
104.0
104.2
0.0
0.2
0.0
118.2
118.4
118.5
4.5
4.3
3.6
115.7
116.7
117.1
6.8
6.9
5.6
January
February
March
111.2
111.6
112.1
5.0
5.1
5.3
103.9
103.9
104.3
2.3
0.4
1.3
104.6
104.7
104.7
1.2
1.5
1.2
119.6
119.8
120.0
4.1
4.1
3.4
117.5
118.0
118.2
5.4
3.8
2.4
April
May
June
112.7
113.1
113.5
4.4
4.5
4.1
105.2
105.4
105.2
2.1
3.3
1.9
104.9
105.0
105.2
1.7
1.7
1.0
120.6
120.9
121.1
2.4
2.7
2.5
119.6
119.7
119.7
2.2
2.0
2.7
July
August
September
113.8
114.4
115.0
3.9
3.7
3.6
104.7
104.8
105.7
-0.9
1.0
0.0
105.2
105.1
104.9
0.8
0.4
0.8
121.4
121.7
121.7
2.3
2.3
2.8
119.6
120.0
120.3
3.7
4.6
4.8
October
November
December
115.3
115.4
115.4
3.7
3.2
3.7
105.7
0.0
-1.7
-0.4
105.0
105.0
105.2
-0.2
0.0
1.0
122.0
2.2
2.1
2.5
120.9
121.5
121.4
4.2
4.2
4.0
January
February
March
115.7
116.0
116.5
3.9
4.0
104.8
104.6
105.0
1.3
(NA)
105.4
105.6
105.7
1.1
1.7
122.4
122.7
123.0
2.6
(NA)
121.4
121.9
122.3
3.8
3.8
April
May
June
117.1
117.5
1987
105.2
105.1
122.2
122.2
1988
105.5
(NA)
106.0
106.2
123.6
(NA)
124.3
124.8
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
JUNE 1988
95
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Continued
Q j
CONSUMER PRICES—Continued
Canada
Italy
Year
and
month
737. Index©
(1982-84=100)
Q |
737c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
733. Index©
(1982-84=100)
733c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
STOCK PRICES
19. United
States, index
of stock
prices, 500
common
stocks ©
748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices ©
745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices ©
746. France,
index of
stock
prices @
742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices @
747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices ©
743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices ©
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
(1967 = 100)
1986
January
February
March
125.9
126.8
127.2
6.8
6.6
5.3
111.4
111.8
112.1
4.4
4.8
2.9
226.5
238.6
252.7
936.5
964.8
1,052.8
327.1
320.8
329.6
438.3
468.6
514.8
647.8
690.0
755.0
303.8
343.9
430.2
321.2
322.7
344.3
April
May
June
127.6
128.1
128.6
5.5
5.5
4.8
112.2
112.8
112.9
3.2
3.6
3.6
258.9
259.4
266.8
1,116.7
1,144.6
1,203.9
345.8
318.7
313.8
590.3
600.2
537.2
780.6
756.2
764.9
512.3
580.0
485.1
347.9
352.8
348.6
July
August
September
128.6
128.8
129.2
4.0
3.3
3.4
113.8
114.1
114.1
4.5
4.5
5.4
261.3
266.5
259.2
1,262.7
1,354.5
1,361.4
293.2
316.3
327.2
580.0
605.1
603.4
755.5
750.0
767.2
483.2
562.7
554.7
331.7
342.2
336.6
October
November
December
129.9
130.4
130.8
3.9
3.0
3.7
114.7
115.3
115.5
4.3
4.1
4.8
258.2
266.6
270.4
1,280.3
1,297.0
1,406.4
322.1
325.2
331.9
609.7
616.6
652.2
750.7
774.1
779.4
557.1
546.3
514.8
343.4
344.3
346.5
January
February
March
131.6
132.1
132.6
4.2
4.7
4.5
115.8
116.3
116.8
4.4
4.7
4.2
287.7
305.6
318.1
1,492.7
1,577.3
1,675.5
308.8
285.2
288.5
642.1
660.1
708.1
841.0
917.9
973.1
526.7
502.9
501.9
378.4
395.4
422.5
April
May
June
132.9
133.4
133.9
4.8
5.9
6.5
117.3
118.0
118.3
5.1
5.2
4.7
314.7
314.5
327.8
1,856.7
1,937.3
1,965.7
304.2
302.3
313.7
725.9
703.6
664.6
957.2
1,042.0
1,098.5
533.2
533.4
p521.5
420.0
416.4
422.6
July
August
September
134.3
134.6
135.6
6.8
6.4
5.5
119.2
119.3
119.3
4.5
3.8
4.1
337.3
358.3
346.6
1,806.9
1,902.6
1,888.0
327.7
340.7
330.0
691.9
704.9
729.8
1,155.7
1,102.2
1,121.9
p508.1
p469.8
p459.6
455.4
451.3
440.9
October
November
December
136.8
137.2
137.4
5.1
4.0
3.4
119.7
120.2
120.3
3.1
2.9
3.5
304.8
266.5
262.1
1,831.8
1,676.8
1,654.9
306.1
234.2
224.2
632.8
508.5
423.5
1,028.6
795.0
810.9
p460.1
p379.8
p375.0
341.2
336.5
357.1
January
February
March
138.1
138.5
139.1
3.5
3.5
120.5
121.0
121.6
3.5
4.4
272.5
280.8
289.1
1,654.9
1,797.4
1,909.4
213.0
223.3
237.7
465.0
501.6
510.3
864.2
859.2
889.6
p534.5
p5O9.2
p569.5
345.4
362.1
374.4
April
May
June
139.6
140.0
285.7
278.6
p296.0
1,960.5
rp2,006.2
p2,046.4
235.9
rp226.8
p241.5
523.5
545.7
p591.5
880.3
rp879.5
p907.9
p573.8
rp539.3
p543.6
377.4
367.1
p382.8
1987
1988
122.0
122.8
July
August
September
October
November
December
See note on page 80.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 59.
1
96
Changes over 6-month spans arc centered on the 4th month.
JUNE 1988
APPENDIXES
B. Current Adjustment Factors
1988
1987
Series
Apr.
May
June
91.4
92.1
82.7
89.1
99.2
113.5
104.2
102.0
107.1
100.5
100.4
101.3
100.9
100.8
100.3
115.4
107.2
92.7
107.0
91.2
80.2
87.3
93.5
102.8
117.1
95.8
117.9
81.1
69.1
84.7
97 7
100 2
100 9
103 5
103 4
103.0
102.6
100.4
98.3
100.2
100.2
100.4
100.5
100.1
99.8
99.7
99.7
99.5
99.9
101.2
99.0
99.3
99.8
99.9
99.4
99.5
99.6
99.8
100.3
100.8
103.5
97.4
99.8
97.9
97.1
107.7
92.5
98.4
108.3
98.4
100.7
103.4
604. Exports of domestic agricultural products .
80.7
84.7
88.9
103.2
117.3
119.7
109.2
107.5
109.8
100.8
89.3
83.1
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
98.0
96.3
96.5
104.5
96.8
97.4
98.1
95.0
111.6
101.3
103.1
102.8
105 4
96 0
105 2
106 0
112 2
103 4
92 3
98 4
91.4
94 5
95.4
107.7
96.9
85.2
95.8
93.4
103.2
96.3
100.8
102.9
107.5
99.8
108.6
114.2
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
105.1
85.9
81.4
92.7
104.7
129.0
144.5
104.2
13. New business incorporations
101.5
93.1
96.9
99.8
88.1
104.6
95.8
72. Commercial and industrial loans
outstanding in current dollars2
100 2
99 6
99 4
99.3
99 8
99 9
92.6
86.0
126.0
105.7
105.3
85.6
91.4
204.5
54.8
96 7
94 4
97 0
570. Employment, defense products industries . .
100.0
99.9
578. Defense Department civilian personnel,
direct hire employment
101.7
580. Defense Department net outlays1
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
.
..
1
517. Defense Department gross obligations
incurred1
525. Defense Department prime contract awards
.
543. Defense Department gross unpaid
obiigations outstanding
614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum
productsx
1
616. Imports of automobiles and parts
....
Mar.
NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis rather than by the source agency. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST whenever they are available. For a description
of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, THE x-ll VARIANT OF THE CENSUS METHOD
II SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAM.
1
2
Factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
These factors apply only to the loans portion of this series.
97
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Year
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
Apr.
June
May
July
Sept.
Aug.
Od
Nov.
Dec.
1 Q
IIQ
-0. 06
1. 87
0. 07
-1. 44
-0. 08
-0. 57
-0. 30
0. 57
1. 54
-0. 16
1. 02
1. 45
0. 31
1. 08
1. 00
-0. 06
0. 66
0. 53
2 .28
2. 86
-2 .32
- 0 . 92
1 .72
4. 29
4 .18
2 .69
3. 96
96
3. 83
5I
-o!42
56
-0. 7 1
2. 59
-2.21
0.8 6
0.65
-o.: 8
-l.: 4
1.02
-1 .2 1
-0. 6
0. 8
1. 1
0.85
1. n
2 .)3
-0. )7
0.62
0. 3
-O. f 3
O.f 8
3
-0. 7 l
0. 30
3. 6
6. 3
2. D2
-0. 2
- 0 . J6
0. 5 3
5. 38
0. + 1
2 .31
- 0 . 38
-1. 76
0. 42
0. 68
-0. 92
-0. 32
0. 12
-0. 65
0. 14
- 0 . 44
0. 43
1. 06
0. 90
1. 80
0. 93
-0. 06
1. 13
-0. 99
- 1 . 07
0. 79
3. 20
3. 93
- 2 . 12
0. 72
1. 77
4. 47
3. 90
-0 90
I 11
-2 85
2 28
2 24
Q 87
-1 93
4 03
08
45
40
41
96
12
13
46
84
50
95
31
91
59
44
64
24
4 5 . 25
56.
63. 88
50 35
43 99
48 8 8
42 10
43 98
45 51
50 96
63 15
75 90
94 16
100 5 8
105 95
111 25
101 57
102 12
114 72
151 50
182 92
52. 00
47 . 84
58. 19
62 .74
4 4 . 28
47 .06
45. 23
41. 63
44. 53
48. 84
53. 52
66. 17
81 . 99
9 3. 9 4
1 0 2 ! 43
107 .54
1 0 8 . 46
103. 60
103. 59
124. 44
162. 72
46 71
4 9 10
60 22
59 99
43 32
47 42
43 29
42 05
43 20
50 15
56 71
68 86
87 40
96 7 4
102 26
110 91
105 .48
100 .40
105 .98
134 .06
174 .53
44. 82
5 1.74
63. 72
55 .15
43 20
48. 66
43. 62
43 04
43. 36
50 86
60 06
71 81
92 64
9 8 04
103 00
111 40
102 42
100 55
109 73
141 18
186 81
4 5 . 25
56 .24
6 3 . 88
50. 35
4 3 . 99
4 8 . 88
42 .10
43. 98
45. 51
50 96
63 15
75 90
94 16
58
105 95
111 25
101 57
102 12
114 72
151 50
182 92
195
249
290
312
309
IVQ | Annual
11.1Q
s
(B ILLIONS
1954...
1955 ...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971. . .
1972. ..
1973...
1975...
1976...
1977 ...
1978...
1979. ..
1980. ..
19 8 1 . . .
1982...
1983 ...
1984...
1985 ...
1986...
1987...
1988. ..
OF DOLLAR s)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
- 2 .46
0. 78
1. 31
- 0 . 25
- 2 . 39
0. 73
- 1 . 54
- 0 . 34
0. 40
0. 93
1. 07
1. 00
1. 82
- 0 . 06
0. 00
0. 18
- 0 . 82
1.18
0. 37
2 78
_lm69
-2. 49
1. 19
0. 41
-0. 87
-0. 51
0. 89
-1. 24
-0. 31
-0. 48
1. 36
0. 78
0. 84
2 .43
- 0 . 43
1 .60
0. 75
-0. 89
-0 02
0. 43
- i . 83
0. 36
1. 22
-0. 86
-0. 85
0. 52
-1. 07
0. 18
-0. 78
0. 60
0. 85
0. 89
1. 76
0. 16
0. 32
2 .32
-1. 27
-0. 55
0. 35
-1. 79
0. 34
0. 55
-0. 64
-0. 34
-0. 40
-0. 61
0. 16
-0. 39
0. 84
1. 13
0. 88
51
1. 06
-0. 35
1. 08
-0 89
-1. 27
1. 04
-1. 67
0. 56
0. 26
-1. 25
0. 22
0. 24
-0. 26
0. 09
-0. 16
-0. 14
1. 21
0. 92
2. 14
1. 57
-0. 14
-0. 02
-0 82
-1 38
0. 99
2 75
-1. 19
0. 81
1. 48
- 1 . 73
0. 14
-0. 03
-0. 43
0. 41
0. 03
0. 00
1. 59
0. 79
1 .78
0. 63
-1. 19
-0. 04
-1. 00
-0. 76
0. 63
80
-1. 00
0. 65
1 .90
-1. 70
0. 00
0. 11
0. 45
0. 43
-0. 42
0. 11
0. 61
0. 75
1. 08
0. 36
0. 74
-0. 25
-1. 39
-0. 05
0. 74
0. 30
1. 18
0. 12
-1. 41
-0. 26
1. 16
0. 32
0. 15
0. 55
0. 59
1. 15
1. 42
2. 38
0. 31
1. 18
0. 78
-0. 68
0. 95
2 .39
1. 31
1. 47
-0. 16
-1. 91
0. 10
0. 81
-0. 83
0. 04
0. 48
0. 06
1. 19
1. 31
0. 73
1. 01
1. 50
-0. 11
- 1 . 32
0. 32
1. 2 1
47
45
50
14
46
46
04
66
-2. 63
-0. 15
0. 48
3. 07
7 .07
2 77
0 30
-1. 88
-3 08
0 96
0 41
4. 57
6 86
1 62
-0 7 1
-0 34
-2. 45
0. 94
1 .56
4. 08
5 06
0. 53
1 60
-0. 50
-1. 68
0. 60
31
5 . 03
2 27
-3 00
-2 23
0 61
2. 43
4 30
4 38
-0 24
0. 04
1. 71
0. 91
3. 43
1 .43
4. 01
-0. 85
-0. 45
1. 7 1
4 .60
1. 03
1. 84
67
-0. 84
1. 00
2 .02
4. 92
2 . 56
2. 93
- 0 . 84
- 1 . 54
1.62
3. 48
7 .26
1. 34
2. 52
- 0 . 82
1. 16
0. 25
-1. 45
0. 78
-0. 02
-0. 40
0. 33
0. 13
0. 21
0. 88
1. 33
0. 47
0. 46
0. 44
0. 02
-0. 19
0. 72
1. 50
3. 98
-0. 72
-0. 12
1. 03
2. 62
6 .88
2. 29
1 . 32
1
- 4 . 31
-3 75
-2. 62
-4. 99
- 2 . 54
0. 07
- 3 . 06
75
64
63
34
5
0
2
-1
80
16
23
78
2. 50
3. 74
0 47
3. 57
l! 06
0. 06
-2. 52
0. 90
-1 64
-2 76
4
-0 1 3
-1 32
98
3 7
-1 70
3 82
-o!03
-I! 88
29
- 1 . 06
2. 84
-0. 03
2. 5 7
45. 31
54. 37
63 81
-2
-1
1
2
4
3
0
-0
2
2
1
0
-2
0. 62
0. 23
- 0 . 02
-1. 12
1. 45
-0. 86
0. 17
0. 62
1. 04
0. 71
1. 18
1. 84
0. 28
0. 26
0. 66
-1. 07
0. 88
0. 67
2 .83
09
74
18
18
9
-1
3
1
54
°
:
3. 74
-1. 12
0. 92
0. 64
-1. 13
-0. 36
0. 41
-0. 56
0. 16
0. 13
0.45
1. 02
1. 06
1. 52
0. 54
0. 45
0. 44
-0. 81
0. 05
1. 05
3. 06
2 .62
- 1 . 56
0. 68
1. 89
4. 54
3.45
1. 81
- 0. 3 0
- 1 . 73
2 .56
2. 25
0. 6 6
- 0 . 10
2. 33
END OF PERIOD
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
56 18
54 49
52 00
50 17
48 38
46 71
45. 52
44. 52
44. 82
19 5 5 ...
1956. . .
46 0 3
57 55
46 6 5
57 78
84
58 19
45 91
44 79
+ 3 30
46
41
45
47
52
65
79
94
100
106
109
103
103
120
159
177
48
93
01
48
74
32
56
37
83
79
36
62
16
33
52
82
45
41
44
48
53
66
81
93
102
107
108
103
103
124
162
174
6 1.70
58.
43 46
39
42 86
2 46
3 23
0 16
8 30
9 65
89 17
3 20
47 34
41 76
44 .38
46 .44
52 .03
64 .15
77 .72
94 .10
100 .58
106 .13
110 .43
102 .74
102 .49
1 17 .50
1 55 .77
1 80 .46
]
60 22
59 99
43 32
42
43 29
42 05
43 20
50 15
56 7 1
68 86
87 40
63 60
56
43 45
1960...
1961. . .
1962. . .
1963. ..
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1 976 ...
59 96
61 24
43 10
18
I 55
1 96
36
0 29
5 50
7 94
85 25
95 16
102 40
110 93
106 30
101 78
104 98
131 .31
170 .86
170 .61
63. 72
1958. ..
48 2 0
59 4 1
61
43 44
47 58
44 16
41 81
43 75
49 45
54 37
67 06
83 74
94 10
102 75
109 86
107 19
103 05
103 94
127 91
165 .94
172 30
46 .13
53.
63 56
1978. . .
1979...
1980...
1981 ...
197 .14
2}j .94
294 .38
312 .69
317
300 .18
330 .85
356 .76
200
261
297
312
315
298
335
22
01
16
99
5 5
68
94
204 79
26 7 8 7
298 77
312 27
315 . 2 1
298 92
345 75
208 .87
2 7 2 . 93
299 .30
313 87
314 .71
301 . 17
348 .25
213 .90
27 5 .20
296 .30
315 .26
310 .40
301 .96
351 .99
19 8 2 . . .
1983...
1984...
1985...
0. 14
1. 50
0. 05
- 1 . 60
0. 27
0. 07
-0. 51
0. 31
0. 72
0. 04
1. 03
1. 36
0. 50
0. 85
0. 98
-0. 05
-0. 28
0. 52
1. 66
3. 44
-1. 29
-0. 86
1. 46
3. 46
6 .11
2. 11
2. 60
2 5 7
0. 28
4 # 90
- 0 . 68
- 0. 39
- 0 . 60
2 . 67
,DUST RIES
96 . M/
1954...
-0. 63
0. 88
1 .17
-1. 61
-0. 04
0. 41
0. 11
0. 33
0. 05
0. 23
1. 12
0. 99
1. 75
0. 43
0. 24
0. 16
-1. 02
0. 05
1. 25
2. 37
4. 09
-0. 55
0. 75
1. 55
4. 32
1 .67
2 .93
0 .3 9
- 3 . 38
2 .55
1. 56
76
C. 13
3. 2 1
44 28
23
63
53
84
52
17
99
43
54
46
60
59
44
72
75
43
42
42
50
58
70
90
31
90
81
26
90
40
26
3
3
3
50
60
71
92
62
04
36
86
06
81
64
+2
+3
+3
3 0
31
73
93
79
08
83
92
24
13
37
44
49
42
43
43
51
62
74
93
82
62
09
60
34
39
14
103
111
102
100
109
141
186
00
40
42
55
73
18
81
104
111
101
100
110
144
185
50
29
10
87
94
67
96
104
111
100
101
112
148
185
102 26
110 91
105 48
100 .40
105 .98
134 .06
174 .53
168 .38
101
110
104
99
106
135
178
168
08
87
48
64
61
86
80
42
101
110
103
99
107
138
184
167
218 .20
27 9 .57
296 .07
315 .60
3 06 . 6 6
305 .75
352 .46
358
221
2 81
300
317
63
226 24
231 16
188 09
238 42
190 71
245 30
195 01
249 48
174. 66
2 0 4 . 79
179 .96
218 .20
184 61
231 16
00
07
08
2 82
301 91
316 75
304 85
316 76
307 36
313 81
308 69
312 02
312 65
309 07
298. 77
312 .27
296 .07
315 .60
304 85
316 76
5 0
41
16
21
5 8
320 84
354 64
364 61
324 59
355 54
359 47
328 10
355 11
363 03
298. 92
345. 75
356 .33
305 .75
352 .46
358 .93
313 .41
357 . 16
364 .2 1
85
384 70
387
86
360. 10
372 .22
381 .85
4 .56
4 .75
4 .56
4 .73
4. 69
4. 57
4. 70
4 .56
4 .67
4 .87
5 '.6 3
5 .60
2 3
6 .05
5 .6 1
5 .60
6 .23
6 .04
5. 55
5 5 8
6 .23
4 .59
4 .62
4 .77
5 .34
5 .40
5 64
6 .20
5 .53
5
5 .45
5 .62
6 .77
.81
7 .50
8 .62
8 .40
7 .59
7 .56
8 .78
9 .51
9 .32
8 .28
8 .96
10 .23
12 .24
14 .08
16 .43
12 .80
13 .25
12 .99
10 .70
9 .21
10 .63
5. 67
49
5. 45
5.45
5 .61
5 .45
5 .45
5 .45
6 .48
6. 81
6 .41
3 04 04
3 08 53
356 03
95
2 99
310
357
361
05
24
10
55
2 96
313
35 7
364
368
01
48
92
65
07
328 10
355 . 11
363 .03
3 61 86
389 .86
4 5 . 25
56 .24
63. 88
50. 35
43. 99
48. 88
42. 10
43. 98
45. 51
50 96
63 15
75 90
94 16
100 5 8
105 95
111 25
101 57
102 12
114 72
151 50
182 92
195
249
290
312
309
01
48
92
65
07
328
355
363
3 61
389
10
11
03
86
86
1988. . .
©
118.
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
(P E R C E N T )
1954...
1955. . .
1956 ...
1957 . . .
1958...
1 9 5 9 ...
1960. . .
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1968. . .
1969...
1970. . .
197 1...
1972...
1973. . .
1974. . .
1975...
1976. . .
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985. . .
1986...
1987...
1988. ..
4 .75
4.56
4 .73
5 .5 8
5.60
6.24
6 .00
5 .69
5 .52
5 .45
5 .45
5 .70
6.81
7 .49
7.55
8 .99
9.06
8 .45
9 .18
10 .24
12 .60
14 .23
17 .38
12 .87
13 .08
13.01
10 .78
8 .79
4 .56
4 .67
4 .87
4 .56
4 .70
4 .92
5 .50
6 . 11
6 .09
'.11
5I 3 7
5 .80
6 . 14
5
5 .57
4 .56
4 .73
4 .95
5 .63
5 .57
5 !59
4 .56
4 .64
4 .81
5 .38
5 .35
5. 7 5
6 .18
5
5 .*5 8
5 .45
5 .45
6 .32
5 .45
5 .44
6 .45
5 .46
5 .44
6 .51
5 .46
5 .45
6 .58
5 .56
5 .45
5 .46
5 .46
6 .63
5 .55
5 .45
5 .45
5 .49
5 .54
5 .45
5 .45
5 .51
6 .81
...
8 . 06
9 .11
7 .75
7 .53
7 .79
9 .46
9 .16
9 .03
7 .52
8 .35
9 .16
7 .89
7 .54
7 .89
9 .46
9 .06
9 .05
8 .77
7 .35
8 .36
9 .07
7 .92
7 .55
7 .29
8 .48
8 .97
7 .75
7 .57
8 .97
10 . 13
9 .53
8 .55
8 .81
9 .98
7 .36
8 .48
8 .90
7 .62
7 .57
8 .86
10 .30
9 .32
8 .93
8 .77
9 .81
10 .58
13 .54
17 .96
14 .61
13 .78
7 .28
8 .40
9 .01
7 .84
7 .56
9 .18
10 .38
9 .74
8 .82
8 .74
9 .81
11 .37
14 .26
18 .55
14 .03
13 .55
11 .99
9 .80
10 .55
12 .04
9 .90
11 .22
4 .69
4 .56
4 .70
5 .36
5 .56
5. 5 8
6 .23
5 .89
5 .68
4 .64
4 .59
4 .68
5 .35
5 .51
5 .57
6 .22
5
5 '.65
4 .62
4 .60
4 .7 1
5 .35
5 .43
5 .58
6 .21
5
5
4 .59
4 .63
4 .78
5 .32
5 .39
5 . 64
6 .21
5 .60
5 .45
5 .45
5 .45
5 .45
6 .00
5 .45
5 .45
6 .78
7 .99
9 .29
6 .83
8 .05
9 .20
7 .32
7 .45
7 .63
8 .66
8 .69
6 .94
8 .06
9 .10
7 .37
7 .50
7 .73
9 . 17
4 .57
4 .63
4 .81
5 .35
5 .37
5. 7 1
6 . 19
14 • 7 9
17 .10
12 .65
8 .65
9 .35
10 .26
14 .63
15 .04
16 .41
12 .68
13 .45
15 .91
16 .31
12 .50
9 .74
10 .61
11 .99
16 .33
16 .19
12 .41
10 .49
11 .85
16 .31
16 .73
12 .96
7 .42
8 .36
9 . 11
7 .97
7 .54
8 .19
9 .85
9 .13
8 .99
8 .77
9 .96
10 .46
12 .39
16 .76
16 .29
14 .23
13 .27
10 .59
8 .81
13 .43
9 .77
8 .94
12 .97
9 .80
10 .02
12 .28
10 .07
10 .61
11 .89
9 .98
10 .33
12 .12
10 .01
10 .38
7 .46
7 .56
8 .54
8 .84
9 .04
8 .55
10 .24
8 .82
8 .64
9 .44
NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain revisions beginning with 1986.
'This series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user
14 .38
17 .43
12 .99
13 .23
13 .43
11 .87
9 .80
10 .90
9 .41
8 .45
8 .81
10 .04
12 .41
14 .47
15 .98
12 .82
13 .23
12 .90
11 .28
9 .26
10 .76
7 . 47
7 . 58
8 . 16
9 . 12
7 .67
7 .52
7 .80
9 .36
4 .56
4 .74
4 .60
4 .65
5 .41
5 .62
5 .59
5 .49
6 . 14
6 .06
6 . 16
5 .57
5 .45
5 .46
5 .45
6 .57
6 .59
7 .35
8 .37
9 .06
7 .91
7 .55
5 .54
5 .45
5 .45
5 .54
5 '.6 0
5 .46
5 .45
5 .47
6 .74
7 .38
8 .53
8 .76
7 .65
7 .57
8 .87
6 .56
14. 6*9
16 96
12 73
12 .43
16 .18
16 .41
12 .62
10 .18
9 .40
8 .91
8 .76
9 .86
10 .80
13 .40
17 .76
14 .98
13 .85
13 24
10 38
8 85
12 .38
9 .95
10 .32
12 .05
9 .90
10 .72
8! 84
8 .97
8! 55
10. 25
7 .53
9 '.42
8 .43
8 .86
10 .08
14 . 31
16 .61
12 .87
13 .24
1 2.11
11 .28
9 .42
10 .76
16 .31
15 .30
13 . 11
12 .82
12 .24
9 .91
10 .16
(JUNE 1988)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
(PERC :NT)
i 954. . .
955...
i 956...
i 957...
958. . .
959...
i 960...
961. . .
962. . .
963. . .
i964...
i965...
966. . .
i967...
i968...
969...
970...
197 1. . .
1972...
1973. . .
1974. . .
1975...
1976
1977...
1978. . .
1979. . .
1980. . .
1981...
1983. . .
1984. . .
1985...
1986 . . .
1987...
1988. . .
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1 .34
2 .48
2 .96
1 .86
2 .56
3 .93
.00
1 .49
2 .69
3 .00
0 .94
3 .08
3 .70
1 .74
1.92
2.81
3.24
1 .32
3.57
2.94
1.68
1 .02
2 .36
2 .93
3 .23
2 .16
3 .99
2 .30
2 .40
.78
2 .73
3 .11
1 .57
3 .30
3 .22
1 .96
3 .48
3 .52
4 .10
5 .77
4 .12
5 .81
8 .85
5 .60
3 .38
3 .85
4 .32
5 .40
4 .51
6 .02
8 .97
.90
2 .96
3 .46
3 .97
4 .56
4 .82
4 .79
6 .58
8 .57
2 .96
3 .49
4 .08
4 .91
3 .99
5 .98
8 .33
.88
5 .06
10 . 0 3
9 .45
5 .22
4 .95
6 .51
9 .76
13 . 1 8
15 . 8 5
13 . 3 1
5 ,33
9 .95
8 .53
5 .20
4 .65
6 .56
10 . 0 3
13 . 7 8
18 . 9 0
12 .37
3 .54
6 .54
9 .32
6 .30
4 .83
4 .66
6 .76
10 .07
15 . 0 5
16 .57
4 .30
7 .82
11 . 2 5
5 .42
5 .20
5 .16
7 .28
10 . 18
12 . 6 9
17 . 7 8
3.33
3.46
4.07
5 .41
3.89
5.94
8.98
6.70
5.48
4.74
10.56
12 . 0 9
6.16
5.28
5.82
8.10
10.95
9 .84
17.58
3 .45
3 .58
4 .17
5 .57
4 .17
5 .92
8 .94
5 .57
.75
5 .14
10 . 0 0
9 .35
5 .41
4 .88
6 .51
9 .58
13 . 5 8
15 . 8 5
13 . 5 9
3 .18
3 .50
4 .07
5 .11
4 .22
5 .66
8 .21
7 .17
4 .66
4 .44
8 .74
10 . 5 1
5 .82
5 .05
5 .54
7 .93
11 . 1 9
13 . 3 6
16 . 3 8
8 .80
10 . 5 6
9.46
11.39
7.90
6.2 1
6.84
9 .43
9 .27
8 .10
6 .27
6 .92
9 .09
10 . 2 2
8 .10
6 .80
6 .66
1.43
2 .62
3.00
1.26
2.96
3.92
1.50
1.43
2.75
3.00
0.63
2.90
3.85
1.98
i .62
2 .7 1
3 .00
0 .93
3 .39
3 .32
1 .73
1.6 8
2 .7 4
2 .9 9
0.6 8
3.4 4
3.2 3
1 . 16
2.91
3.48
3.90
4.42
4.94
4.60
6.30
8.98
4.14
3.50
5 .94
9 .65
7.13
4.87
4.61
6.70
10.07
13.82
19.08
3.00
3.48
3.98
4.60
5.00
4.72
6.64
8.98
3.72
3.29
6.58
8.97
6 .24
4.77
4.68
6.78
10.06
14.13
15.93
2.98
3.43
4.04
4.65
4.53
5 .05
6.79
2.90
3.47
4.09
4.67
4.05
5.76
7.41
3.00
3.50
4.10
4.90
3.94
6 .12
8.67
2 .99
3 .50
4 .04
5 .17
3 .98
6 .07
8 .90
3.0 2
3.4
4.0 9
5 .30
3.7 9
6 .02
8.6 1
3.49
3.48
3.50
4.12
5.53
3.89
6.03
9.19
3.71
3.83
7 .09
9 .35
5.54
4.84
4.69
6.79
10.09
17 . 1 9
14.70
4.91
4.46
8.49
11.93
5.55
5 .48
5.39
7.60
10.29
9 .47
1 9 . 10
8.77
9.91
8.58
8 .98
1 1.06
5.31
4.55
10.40
12 . 9 2
6.10
5.31
5.42
7.81
10.47
9.03
19 . 0 4
12.59
9 .37
11.23
5.57
4.80
10.50
12 . 0 1
6.14
5.29
5.90
8.04
10.94
9.61
17.82
8.51
9.59
8.50
4.63
4.27
7 .84
11.31
5.22
5 .29
5.35
7.36
10.24
10.98
18.52
14.45
8.63
10.32
4.08
5.53
3.88
5 .92
9.00
6.20
5.20
5.04
10.01
10.06
5.82
5.03
6.47
8.96
13.77
12.81
15.08
8.68
9.56
8.35
8 . 14
6.43
4.15
4.17
7 . 12
10.5 1
5.49
4.82
4.73
6.89
10.01
17 . 6 1
15.72
14.94
8.80
10.29
8.27
4.01
5.40
4.00
5.78
9 . 15
6.29
5.55
4.87
10.78
11.34
6 .24
5.25
6.14
8.45
11.43
10.87
15.87
9.56
11.64
9 .45
11.30
9.48
9.99
9 .34
9 .43
8
9 .47
8 .38
8 .65
9 .69
8 .48
6.10
6.13
6 .37
6 .85
6 .73
6.58
6.73
7.22
7.29
6 .69
6 .77
6.22
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
2 ,206
1 ,884
2,270
2 ,825
962
1,915
2 ,898
3,110
1,499
2 , 050
2,154
1,820
2,419
1,561
1,862
1,958
1,668
1,605
2,383
2,473
1,875
1,393
1 ,473
2,067
1,348
2,008
1,689
1,939
1, 900
2,156
1,769
2,141
1 ,825
2,173
1 ,847
2 ,267
1,625
1,941
2,453
2,122
2 , 193
2 , 198
1 , 934
1, 888
2,483
2,913
2,294
3,830
2,231
2,581
2,832
2,663
3,348
3,650
2,562
4,959
2,614
4,913
2,925
4,373
2 , 943
3 , 809
2 , 521
4 , 807
1,347
1,682
1 ,504
2,490
1,818
3,027
3 ,088
3,161
6,530
1 ,489
2,124
3,612
2,091
2 ,033
2,646
3 ,359
2,944
5,062
5 ,6 00
,927
,871
2 ,257
2 ,682
2 .617
2 ,390
3,072
3,048
6 ,007
6 ,055
5,802
8 ,702
5,166
9,173
8 ,5 02
5,813
6,983
6,300
8,303
6,278
9 , 193
7 ,344
6 ,928
8 ,036
13,796
7,810
12,214
9,658
6,611
8.532
7,003
8 , 180
8,071
11,275
5,931
6,565
7,108
9,339
9 ,036
9 , 078
5 , 985
8,
8 , 023
12 , 794
8 , 3 14
10, 009
MANUFACTUE ERS 1
(MI
INVENTORIES ,
6 .92
6 .65
PRODUCTS
1 ,957
559.
Annual
i .26
2 .48
2 .94
2 .98
2 .42
3 .99
1 .98
2 .33
1.35
2.50
2 .96
1.20
2.80
3.84
2.02
5 ,490
8,086
9 ,786
10,062
9,923
IV Q
0.91
2.35
2.88
3.22
2.27
4.00
2 .44
2 .62
1.29
2.50
3.00
1.67
2.40
3.97
2 .54
NEW ORDERS, DEFENSE
S)
III Q
0.90
2.24
2.96
3.50
1.80
3.98
2.47
2 .26
1.37
2.44
2.93
2.72
2.48
3.99
1.45
MANUFACTURERS'
II Q
1.07
2.18
2.95
3.50
1 .76
3.76
2.60
1.88
1.2 1
1.90
2.74
3.24
1.53
3.50
2.98
2.00
548.
1954. . .
1955 . . .
1956 . . .
1 957 . . .
]
] 959. . .
1960...
1 96 1 . . .
] 962. . .
96 3 . . .
]964...
965 . . .
1
1
1968...
196 9
1970...
1971...
1972. . .
1973...
1974...
1975. . .
1976 . . .
1977...
1978. . .
1979. . .
1980. . .
1981 . . .
1982 . . .
1983. . .
1984. . .
1985 . . .
1986 . . .
1987 . . .
1988. . .
Aug.
©
119
8,260
10,649
7 ,900
9,521
9,944
10,304
9,112
2,523
1,763
1,536
1,933
1,381
1 ,325
2,823
4,530
3,792
2,901
5 ,083
4,975
7,227
8,727
7,827
10,001
2 , 037
2, 065
6 , 047
8 ,057
7 ,923
6 , 625
28,
652
656
1, 692
1 , 676
2 , 494
2 , 445
2 , 047
? 799
2 , 793
4 , 097
3 , 090
796
1, 554
2 , 063
1, 761
2 , 034
1 , 828
700
4 , 152
3 , 518
2 ,
5 , 236
5 , 401
5 , 295
5 , 492
6 , 150
6 , 042
6 , 820
7 , 295
9 , 953
8,
5 , 528
4 , 163
5 , 643
6 , 312
6 , 234
6 , 277
7 , 930
8,
10, 8 6 0
6,066
5,315
4 ,763
5,677
7 ,373
7,263
6 ,468
5 , 320
5 , 009
5 , 275
6 , 188
5 , 860
5 , 200
9 , 322
22,
19,
20,
23,
25,
24,
30,
976
669
617
782
540
093
300
17,599
17,045
8 , 721
1 4 , 437
1 4 , 623
5 , 147
5, 316
6 808
10 031
9 739
•\
9,519
11. 407
4, 5 0 1
1 1 , 863
1 0 , 627
13,
189
14,
23,
038
24, 004
22,217
29,
1 0 , 734
7 , 738
9 , 048
2 3 , 261
29 909
22 , 815
3 0 , 313
25 , 4 2 1
3 0 , 362
30,379
28,266
28,556
082
2 6 , 269
25 , 596
2 8 , 788
273
150
41 , 7 3 9
3 4 , 138
5 8 , 568
59 , 157
98,
532
104,
110,
109
110,
117
222
192
521
7
7
4
4
4
4
713
999
051
253
482
DEFENSE PRODUCTS
END OF PERIOD
955
956
967
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972. . .
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976. . .
1977...
1978. . .
1979.,.
1980...
7 ,078
7,684
7,507
4,752
4,012
4,225
4 520
4,972
5,699
6 ,546
6,133
6,660
8,562
7 ,058
7,811
7,113
4,610
4 ,039
6,215
6 ,697
8,571
6,1 5
6 ,7 38
8 , 9 37
6,249
6 ,740
9,120
6,326
6,971
9,290
1982...
1983...
16,301
19,320
16,461
19,409
16,579
19,653
16,780
19,794
1985...
1986. . .
1987...
1988. . .
27 , 8 4 6
31,787
34,240
28,378
31 , 4 7 1
34,332
28,439
32,467
34,197
28,929
32,962
34,764
5,034
5,771
7 ,934
6,999
4, 1
3
8 370
10 6 8 0
6 738
8 907
7 120
9 433
7,668
10,123
18 270
20 794
18 796
21 549
16 579
19 653
16 9 6 1
20 4 1 0
17,403
20,491
31 304
34 330
37 609
31 4 5 0
34 005
37 026
28 439
32 467
34 197
29 647
33 549
34 849
31,096
34,206
36,311
5,653
6,535
5 ,997
693
6 665
6 037
6
458
094
7,356
10,066
7 ,668
10,123
7 ,908
10,384
8 2 12
10 495
17,007
20,495
17,218
20,986
17 , 4 0 3
20,491
17,812
20,401
30,291
33,618
30,814
33,810
36,065
31,096
34,206
36,311
31,244
34,482
36 , 8 6 8
272
6,3
6,1
75
6,365
6,225
6 277
7 120
9 433
7 , 1 93
9 , 7 31
16,773
20,222
16 961
20 410
28,854
33,329
34,866
29 647
33 549
34 849
5,577
35 , 5 9 9
NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain revisions beginning with 1986.
1
This series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user.
6 458
6 094
6,192
4,208
5 ,205
5,577
6 ,458
6,192
7
6
4
4
4 , 176
5 ,136
5 304
6 272
6 201
7 13
999
051
253
4 , 1 10
5 , 9 33
5
5 993
6 276
7
4
4
4
7,948
5 ,761
556
713
999
051
253
482
7
7
4
4
4
814
231
923
280
7,986
6 ,048
7
6
4
4
7,431
7 ,948
5,761
3,849
4,208
7
5
3
4
8 ,027
6 ,267
7 ,687
6,590
4.475
4,078
823
361
012
114
7 ,907
5,394
3,889
4,263
823
361
012
1 14
7 ,709
6,778
4,590
4 ,080
934
999
565
113
7
6
4
4
8 370
10 680
387
18 796
21 549
5 56
31 450
34 005
37 026
6 458
6 094
440
8 370
10 680
13 387
18 796
21 549
27 5 56
31 450
34 005
37 026
(JUNE 1988)
99
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Mar.
Feb.
196 6
1967.
Apr.
May
MANUFACTURERS
(>
561.
1
Aug.
July
June
UNFILLED DRDERS,
DEFENE E
Nov.
Oct.
Sept.
Dec.
1Q
IIIQ
IIQ
IV Q
Annual
PRODUCTS
END OF PERIOD
..
,520
,152
,331
,692
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
23
2C
19
19
,526
,949
,572
,541
23 ,096
20 ,769
19 ,774
23 ,261
20 ,573
19 ,449
23
20
19
19
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977. . .
1978...
22
25
77
3
37
,667
,957
,611
,891
,579
2 3 ,331
26 ,536
77 ,703
31 ,579
37 ,611
2? ,935
26 ,6 44
78 ,538
31 ,691
39 ,424
2 3 ,005
26 ,984
79 ,795
32 , 109
40 ,184
1980. ..
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
52 ,188
50 ,377
45 ,835
6" RftQ 69 063
68 837
83,977
86 ,507
88 ,678
104,762 105 ,330 107 ,317
124,420 126 , 137 133 , 191
1986...
160,175 161 ,009
1987 . . . 159 -557 1 5R,477
1988. . .
164 ,969
1 58,532
53
69
90
109
133
,859
052
,829
,875
,330
23, 430
20, 055
19, 048
19, 684
22 ,969
19 ,912
18 ,158
20 ,273
22
2C
IE
19
,430
,098
,47 1
,835
21
19 ,819
18 ,429
19 ,575
21 ,333
19 ,959
18 ,6 02
19 ,743
,301
19
18 ,826
19 ,519
18 911
19 405
18 ,956
19 ,696
23, 7 36
27 , 292
29, 630
32 ,281
4 1 , 213
2 3 ,869
27 ,298
79 ,993
32 ,728
42 ,419
23 ,630
27 ,935
71 ,619
33 ,215
42 ,981
25 ,522
28 ,030
79 ,378
33 ,410
43 ,771
25 ,959
28 ,880
79
33 ,261
44 ,194
25 ,512
28 , 173
26 173
28 173
35 ,314
45 ,341
54, 875
70 581
91, 763
110, 381
133, 687
056
56 ,353
7 i 372
92 ,363
112 ,997
134 ,795
153 ,624
59 ,460
72
92 ,801
,742
136 ,124
155 ,876
61 ,181
63 ,531
64 ,960
,428
,618
,493
,467
93 ,867
116 ,318
139 ,659
160 ,184
95 ,652
119 ,057
139 ,575
160 ,067
.328
162 .345
93
114
137
158
164 ,580
588. MANUFACTURERS
1
19 ,449
19 ,518
19
18 ,158
20 273
333
959
18, 6 02
19, 743
19 , 388
1 8 , 956
1 9 , 696
26 ,27 1
28 ,084
22 ,935
26 ,644
23 ,869
27 ,298
25, 959
28, 880
26 , 27 1
28, 084
35 561
46 898
37
47 ,726
39 ,424
42 ,419
44 194
47 , 776
65 632
67 ,053
52 , 188
56 ,353
63, 531
93 867
116 318
67, 053
7 8 ,057
101, 613
125, 616
160 184
165 918
159, 452
162, 098
95
121
142
157
560 101 ,6 13
820 125 ,616
743 145 ,977
957 159 ,452
,098
88
107
133
146
,678
,317
, 191
,560
,969
SHIPMENTS, DEFENSE PRODUCTS
RS)
92
112
134
153
164
,363
,997
,795
,624
,147
23, 741
21 ,446
19 388
18 956
19 696
26 27 1
28 084
31, 969
172
47 726
67,
78
101
125
145
159
162
053
057
613
616
977
452
098
28
27
24
20
20
145
049
2 07
317
237
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
19 5 9
196 2
196 4
2 ,289
,376
2 ,110
1 ,649
1 ,651
7 26
1 ,778
1 ,927
2 ,169
2 ,346
255
2 , 035
1, 733
1 ,633
775
1 722
1, 813
2, 208
2 ,217
,153
2 ,044
2 ,071
1 ,604
7 48
1 ,801
1 ,882
,099
2 ,626
2 ,765
3
3 ,985
2 ,649
2 ,614
3 ,898
2, 613
2 626
3, 357
3, 894
2 ,603
2 ,757
3 ,329
3 ,973
,732
6 ,586
7 ,546
,049
6 ,742
7 ,976
5 ,974
6 ,864
7 ,406
059
6 ,751
7 617
8 ,424
9 ,603
8 ,860
9 269
6 ,291
6 ,915
8 ,226
9 , 118
9 ,437
1968...
1969. . .
1970...
1971...
1972...
197 3
1974...
1975...
1976.. .
1977 . ..
1978...
1979. ..
2,392
2,415
1,997
1,866
1,569
1 6 87
1,7 17
1,875
2,104
2 ,509
,300
2 ,042
1 ,756
1 ,577
2 ,425
2 ,299
2 ,071
1 ,7 18
1 ,588
1 ,7 19
1 ,893
2 ,131
1 ,744
1 ,900
2 ,132
2 ,506
2,624
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...
1987...
1988. ..
3,627
2 ,569
2 ,550
, 108
3 ,793
5,553
5,362
7,156
7,779
8,354
721. O R G A N I Z A T I O N
1954...
1955...
1956 . . .
1957...
1959 . . .
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967 . . .
1968...
1969. . .
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
1979...
1980...
1981...
1982...
1983...
1984. . .
1985...
1986...
1987...
1988...
,558
2 ,163
2 ,242
2 ,338
,969
1,653
1,7 86
L 9 84
I ,743
L ,853
2,192
2 ,048
1 ,732
1 ,749
875
1 ,720
1 ,996
2 ,001
1 ,485
1 ,758
82 5
1 ,82 1
1 ,832
2 ,051
1 ,539
1 ,761
852
1 ,827
2 ,031
2 ,289
2 19
1 ,935
1 ,607
1 ,789
I 805
1 ,7 83
2 ,047
2 ,377
233
1 ,904
] ,5 08
1 ,772
7 49
1 ,936
1 ,917
.,526
2,644
2 ,569
2 ,807
2 ,649
2 ,705
2 ,645
2 ,838
2 ,540
2 ,940
2 ,690
3 ,022
+ ,078
>,052
3 ,330
4 ,191
4 ,986
6 , 157
6 ,891
8 ,058
,596
8 ,795
4 ,075
5 ,480
4 ,145
5 ,442
4 ,196
5 ,408
7 ,124
8 ,227
fl,891
9 ,524
7 ,456
8 ,844
9
9 ,134
7 ,326
8 ,918
,778
9
4 ,298
5 ,810
6 ,831
7 ,982
9 ,239
,527
D,757
7,534
5,008
3,906
FOR E C O N O M I C C O O P E R A T I O N ANE DEVELOPMENT , EUROPEAN
= 100)
29
32
40
43
29
32
39
43
29
33
40
43
30
33
30
33
31
35
31
34
43
43
44
44
50
51
54
55
61
64
66
50
52
54
55
62
64
66
51
52
54
55
61
63
67
51
53
54
58
62
64
67
51
52
55
58
62
65
67
51
52
54
58
62
64
68
69
77
82
85
88
94
98
92
93
101
101
102
111
104
105
102
108
108
112
112
70
77
83
85
85
95
98
92
95
100
100
105
110
106
106
104
108
110
113
115
70
78
83
84
88
95
98
92
95
101
99
106
110
106
106
104
107
111
112
115
72
79
84
85
89
95
99
91
96
99
101
106
109
105
105
102
106
110
1 15
115
68
80
84
84
90
97
100
90
97
100
100
107
107
105
105
104
107
111
1 11
116
70
80
83
85
90
97
100
91
97
99
101
107
108
105
104
104
104
111
114
116
52
53
55
59
62
64
67
68
74
81
84
86
90
97
100
90
98
99
101
109
108
106
102
105
108
111
115
115
7,701
7,939
3 223
1 1 ,405
1 3,316
1 7,334
1 3,690
22,678
6 ,852
5 7 84
6 ,189
5 ,453
4 ,888
5
5 ,301
5 ,622
7 ,865
7 ,997
9 928
11 ,765
14 ,842
18 ,324
20 ,530
23 ,249
963
6 80
018
870
293
7 ,004
5 57 1
5, 890
4 ,654
5, 322
5 284
5 681
5, 546
5, 995
7 ,141
7 ,564
7 ,875
8 800
1 0 915
12 639
16 660
19 975
22 764
27 001
6
5
6
4
5
7 531
7 7 44
8 156
10 4 21
12 344
15 ,518
18 ,896
20 ,772
23 819
21 ,311
22 966
26 658
30 068
31 185
32 892
4 0 4 87
48 ,153
60 ,336
74 ,529
83 ,756
96 ,747
COUNTRIESAVERAGE FOR P E R I O D
31
35
31
36
31
35
31
36
32
36
29
32
40
30
34
41
43
31
35
42
44
31
36
42
44
30
34
41
44
52
53
55
60
61
65
67
52
53
57
59
62
65
68
53
53
55
60
63
66
68
53
53
57
60
63
66
67
53
54
57
60
63
66
67
50
52
54
55
61
64
66
51
52
54
58
62
64
67
52
5 3
56
59
62
65
67
53
5 3
56
60
63
66
67
47
52
53
55
58
62
65
67
75
81
84
85
90
98
99
90
97
99
102
108
106
104
101
104
109
111
114
115
75
80
84
86
91
98
98
91
99
100
104
108
104
106
102
105
109
112
114
116
75
80
84
86
92
98
97
92
99
99
104
108
106
106
101
104
109
112
114
117
76
81
84
86
93
98
95
93
100
99
105
109
106
106
102
107
109
114
114
117
77
81
85
86
95
98
93
93
100
100
106
110
105
105
101
107
108
110
113
117
70
77
83
85
87
95
98
92
94
101
100
104
110
105
106
103
108
110
112
114
70
80
84
85
90
96
100
91
97
99
101
107
108
105
105
103
106
111
113
116
75
81
84
86
90
98
99
90
98
99
102
108
106
105
10?
105
109
111
114
115
76
81
84
86
93
98
95
9 3
100
99
105
109
106
106
101
106
109
112
114
117
73
80
84
85
90
97
98
91
97
100
102
107
108
105
103
104
108
111
113
116
NOTE: Unless otherwise noted, these series contain revisions beginning with 1986.
1
This series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of the user.
100
,326
014
,110
,340
+ .734
06 2
> , 180
>,668
(JUNE 1988)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Jan.
Year
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug. Sept
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
57
60
60
60
61
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959. ..
1960...
1961. . .
1962...
1963. . .
1964...
1965. . .
1966...
1967 . . .
1968...
1969. . .
1970...
197 1. . .
1972...
1973. . .
1974...
1975. ..
1976. . .
1977. ..
1978...
1979. . .
1980. ..
1981...
1982 . . .
1983 . . .
1984...
1985...
1986...
1987...
1988...
56
60
82
81
85
89
88
91
87
99
91
96
82
81
86
89
90
90
80
98
91
96
83
81
86
89
91
88
88
100
95
94
60
63
68
70
70
71
78
81
83
83
86
90
91
90
90
99
100
92
101
101
99
107
94
97
100
105
106
108
110
101
101
107
104
95
97
100
104
106
110
112
101
100
108
104
96
97
99
103
108
109
112
100
105
108
102
96
98
100
103
109
111
112
723.
1954. . .
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959. ..
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963. . .
19
1965...
19
1967. ..
1968. . .
1969...
1970...
1971.. .
1972. . .
1973. . .
1974. . .
1975. ..
1976...
1977. . .
1978. . .
1979...
1980. . .
1981. . .
1982...
1983. . .
1984...
1985 . . .
1 9 8 6 . . .
1 9 8 7 . . .
1 9 8 8 . ..
30
32
36
38
37
39
43
42
46
4 8
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
8
4
3
6
5
8
6
9
.0
. 3
5 8 . 0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
65
67
72
75
76
82
90
98
91
9 4
00
00
0 9
10
0 8
03
97
13
22
27
28
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
8
2
7
9
3
8
9
9
9
3
9
4
0
6
4
3
.9
.6
.5
.6
.0
31.2
30.8
36.3
39.2
37.9
40.6
43.2
42.8
46.2
48.7
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
4
5 7 . 6
6 5 . 0
67.0
73.9
76.8
76.9
81.7
93 .4
99.2
92.3
95.2
99.3
00.9
09.2
08.7
09.5
02.5
97 .9
112.6
28.1
129.2
6
9
7
0
3
2
6
9
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
9
5
9
6
6
6
9
3
60
62
60
60
62
60
61
63
68
70
70
73
79
80
81
82
87
91
90
90
93
101
101
92
91
90
89
91
100
101
90
89
90
90
92
100
101
89
90
90
89
94
100
99
91
102
102
109
101
94
99
100
102
108
109
113
98
102
111
101
96
98
99
103
108
109
113
99
103
110
100
97
98
101
102
107
111
113
94
100
105
106
98
97
99
101
102
108
111
115
96
100
105
105
96
97
99
101
103
110
111
114
70
73
78
70
74
59
62
60
62
61
67
61
60
61
62
71
73
80
81
80
83
88
90
90
89
96
100
97
92
99
99
104
108
96
98
97
101
103
110
111
115
80
82
81
83
87
88
91
89
95
101
97
92
98
100
103
106
96
99
99
101
103
109
111
115
81
82
81
86
88
91
91
90
96
99
96
92
99
101
107
108
95
97
99
105
104
107
110
115
37.8
38.8
38.3
30.6
30.4
37
38
38
4 1
42
43
47
5 0
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
5
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
5
.4
.8
.6
. 3
.6
.6
.7
. 0
8
8
8
1
2
4
8
0
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
1
7
3
4
3
2
0
3
8
8
8
1
1
4
8
0
.
.
.
.
5
7
6
6
.7
. 8
.8
. 0
30.7
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
5
38.
38.
38.
42.
4 2 .
.3
.9
.5
.6
. 0
.5
. 0
. 0
59.1
60.2
59.2
31.2
6
1
38.9
37.7
3
5
4
3
3
3
4
4
4
4
5
9
7
9
2
2
5
8
2
.
.
.
.
.
1
8
3
3
3
.7
. 4
.5
36.2
39.2
37.9
6 2 . 2
65.5
69.0
74.9
65.5
70.2
74.5
65.7
70.6
74.2
66.3
70.7
75.2
67.4
7 1.2
74.1
67.0
7 1.7
74.6
66 .4
72 .2
74.1
67.4
72.7
75.0
94.5
99.6
91.0
96.5
99.7
100.6
108.8
110.5
109.6
101.1
98.8
114.9
77.4
84.8
93.6
97 . 8
91.9
97.8
98.7
102.7
08.2
07 .9
12.0
98.3
00.1
17 . 3
78.5
84. 1
93.9
99.3
90.1
99. 1
99.8
101.3
10.4
05 . 4
110.8
98.5
01.2
19 .5
79.2
85.1
94.5
98. 1
91.1
97.8
100.7
103.2
109 .5
105 .4
111.1
97.0
103.7
120.4
79.3
85.1
96.5
97.8
92.5
97.7
00.2
01 . 8
10.7
06 . 4
10.9
94.9
03.3
21.5
81.5
85.2
93.8
97.8
91.7
98.7
100.1
102.5
110.9
106 . 0
106.2
97.1
106 . 4
122.1
81.9
87.2
94.8
96 .6
91.9
98.8
99.5
105.1
11.0
08.6
08.6
96.3
09.4
19.9
82 .2
88.7
96.1
96.8
90.9
96.8
100.3
105.4
110.7
109. 1
107.1
94.5
108.8
122.3
125.5
129.9
28.9
129.9
26.9
30.7
125.5
132.0
126.8
131.8
125.6
134.2
126.3
135.0
126.2
135.8
81.5
89.7
97.4
95.3
93.0
98.9
100.4
106.7
110.0
109 . 1
104.7
96.1
110.7
122 . 4
127.6
126.2
136.5
67.6
72.1
76 .2
95.2
94.6
99.0
100.5
108.7
108.8
109 .5
104.4
95.8
113.3
121.9
127.9
128.5
137.2
58
58
65
68
80
87
91
91
97
99
91
94
99
103
105
110
104
104
99
106
110
113
111
70
80
89
91
92
98
98
90
96
99
101
104
111
107
105
101
108
109
113
114
68
72
65
7 11
81
89
90
92
98
97
91
96
101
97
104
108
106
106
102
105
110
113
113
51
56
59
61
45
47
51
56
58
59
53
57
59
61
2
6
0
2
53
57
60
61
68
71
66
71
82
90
91
93
98
68
71
65
67
71
66
68
70
68
o
0
< 7
70
70
68
83
90
90
92
99
99
90
83
90
83
90
91
92
95
99
90
97
98
102
109
107
106
101
102
109
114
117
112
86
90
89
93
101
96
91
98
101
103
108
107
105
102
103
108
112
114
118
86
89
90
93
99
96
91
99
101
104
107
104
106
101
104
108
112
114
116
106
108
105
105
102
105
110
117
114
99
107
107
105
104
102
106
111
112
116
NOTE: These series contain no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.
70
76
80
82
82
90
90
99
92
101
101
105
105
95
97
100
104
107
109
90
90
92
100
101
92
95
100
103
109
101
95
98
100
103
108
110
113
91
89
92
100
100
90
95
100
104
107
99
101
102
108
111
114
100
97
100
105
107
96
98
98
102
103
109
111
115
90
90
91
100
98
92
95
100
103
107
100
101
103
108
110
113
30.7
34.9
38.5
38.6
38.5
41 .9
42.0
44.9
48.6
50.6
55.1
60.0
63.9
66.9
7 1.2
74.6
31.4
35.8
39.1
37.8
39.1
42.7
65.2
67 .3
74.0
30.5
33.8
37.8
38.8
38.4
41.4
42.4
43.7
47 .6
49.9
54.4
58.8
64.2
65.6
69.9
74.5
99.2
91.7
95.3
100.0
100.6
109.0
109.9
109.2
102.3
98.2
113.7
123.0
127 . 1
129.0
78.4
84.7
94.0
98.4
91.0
98.2
99.7
102 . 4
109.4
106.2
111.3
97 .9
101.7
119.1
124.2
127.1
130.9
80.9
85.8
95 .0
97 .4
92 .0
98.4
99.9
103.1
110.9
107.0
108.6
96 . 1
106 . 4
121.2
126 . 1
126 .2
133.7
82 . 0
89.5
96 .9
95.8
92.8
98.2
100.4
106.9
109.8
109.2
105 . 4
95.5
110.9
122.2
127 .6
127 . 0
136.5
30
32
36
39
37
40
43
4 2
46
4 8
53
58
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
9
7
5
1
8
3
5
8
.4
. 8
.9
.1
56 .7
62.4
65.1
67.1
72.3
75.1
30.9
34.
38.
42.
44.
47.7
50.4
55.0
59 . 8
64.3
66 .2
70.2
74.6
75.3
79.5
85.6
94.7
97 .7
91.9
97.6
100.0
103.3
109.8
108.1
108.6
98.0
104.3
119.0
125.2
126 . 8
132.5
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
52
57
57
60
101
101
108
107
104
103
105
95
112
116
114
69
69
70
73
82
81
WEST GERMANY--INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(1977=100)
30
36
39
41
45
46
51
57
58
59
57
60
60
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
3 1 . 0
8
8
8
1
2
4
8
0
61
60
61
72
78
CANADA--INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(1977=100)
30.4
Annual
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
61
63
69
68
70
72
78
82
83
81
87
90
90
90
92
99
101
91
5 8 . 8
725.
1954...
1955. ..
1956 . . .
1 9 5 7 . . .
1958. ..
1959. . .
1960...
1961...
1962. . .
1963. . .
1964. . .
1965...
1966.. .
1967...
1968. . .
1969. . .
1970. . .
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976 . . .
1977.. .
1978.. .
1979. . .
1980...
1981...
1982. . .
1983...
1984...
1985...
1986...
1987. . .
1988. ..
57
59
59
IV Q
I Q
722. UNITED KINGDOM--INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
( 1977 = 100)
55
56
59
62
6 7
70
68
70
55
57
60
63
66
68
68
71
94
99
96
93
99
101
103
107
106
107
99
104
109
116
114
116
89
95
99
95
93
99
101
104
109
106
106
99
106
110
116
114
116
31
36
45
50
32
39
33
39
48
53
70
68
102
107
111
105
104
98
107
109
111
112
117
91
95
100
100
104
110
106
105
101
106
110
113
113
93
99
98
90
98
99
100
107
107
105
104
103
102
111
115
115
90
93
9-8
97
91
98
100
103
108
106
106
101
103
108
113
115
115
8/
89
89
95
99
94
93
99
101
105
109
106
106
99
106
109
114
113
116
84
89
90
93
98
97
91
97
100
102
107
107
105
102
103
106
112
114
115
(JUNE 1988)
101
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
Mar.
726.
2954,..
1955...
1956 . . .
1957...
1958. . .
1959...
1960. . .
1961. ..
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965 . . .
1966 . . .
1967 . . .
1968...
1969...
1970...
197 1...
1972. . .
1973 . . .
1974...
1975. . .
1976 ...
1977 ...
1978. . .
1979. ..
1980.. .
1981 . . .
1982 . . .
1983. . .
1984...
1985...
1986 , . .
1987 . . .
1988. . .
A/lay
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov. Dec.
II Q
35
40
74
78
80
86
93
99
91
95
102
100
103
108
101
102
102
105
101
107
105
73
79
82
85
94
100
91
95
101
99
104
108
104
101
101
104
105
105
109
90
97
99
104
03
108
101
102
101
102
104
109
108
728.
58
58
86
97
98
02
07
04
02
02
04
05
07
04
10
102
88
98
99
101
111
55
59
102
8S
98
99
101
11 1
00
02
05
107
109
111
78
80
85
92
97
97
91
98
98
104
1 08
104
103
101
101
107
107
109
110
76
80
86
92
98
94
90
01
00
04
08
03
03
02
04
05
09
07
LI 1
76
81
85
94
95
92
95
100
98
104
108
104
104
100
104
103
104
107
112
48
51
53
58
75
79
83
79
84
99
90
95
101
100
104
108
102
101
101
105
104
106
96
100
102
102
103
105
107
110
99
101
110
105
103
100
103
106
107
109
110
100
99
104
108
104
103
101
103
105
107
108
111
ITALY--INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
( 1977 = 100)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
JAPAN--INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
( 1977=100)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 198f
89
97
102
101
108
104
104
102
102
103
104
108
1 11
Annual
33
38
33
39
50
52
54
73
79
82
88
95
98
89
96
01
01
05
08
02
01
01
05
07
05
109
fVQ
A V E R A G E FOR PERIOD
37
40
52
53
59
Q
PRODUCTION
31
33
727.
w
June
FRANCE—INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL
( 1977 = 100)
100
102
107
106
103
101
102
105
106
107
110
PRODUCTION
(JUNE 1988}
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Nov.
II Q
Dec.
Sept.
Oct.
59.7
67.9
66.3
64.2
68.7
73.3
7 1.5
76 .4
96 .4
97.3
102 .3
108.1
10.8
04.9
60.9
67.1
66 .4
63.5
69.4
72.7
7 1.2
77.5
80.0
86 .3
92 .8
97.0
96 .7
102 .5
10.3
10.7
04.4
27 .5
30.9
16.5
20.6
32.4
41.1
29 .4
131.0
113.5
122.0
132.2
141.9
30.3
31.1
11.2
28. 7
09.2
41 .6
34.5
42 .4
07 .7
27 .6
36.5
44.5
41 .2
139.3
37.5
60.0
64. 1
70.2
79.9
92.0
141.7
142 .4
136.9
138.6
162.4
163.6
171.2
181.2
192 . 1
40. 1
43.4
137.0
39.4
62 .5
64.4
71.1
82.7
89.7
40.5
43 .0
36.2
40.9
63.4
63 .8
74.0
86 .7
90.4
8.2
9 .7
1 .4
5 .2
7 .6
6.0
66.4
75.2
86 .4
910. COMPOSITE INDEX OF 11 LEADING INDICATORS
( 1967 = 100)
1954.,
1955.,
1956 .
1957 .
1958.
1959.
1960.
196 1.
1962.
1963.
196A.
1965.
1966 .
1967 .
1968.
1969.
1970.
197 1 .
1972.
1973 .
1974.
1975.
1976 .
1977.
1978.
1979.
1980.
1981 .
1983 .
1984.
1985 .
1986.
1987.
1988.
99.9
97.4
104.4
112.2
107.5
108.6
19.2
32.4
28.7
07 .7
26 . 1
134.5
141.0
147 .7
141.4
142 . 1
79.9
82.4
88.2
94.8
100.8
97.0
105 .5
112.1
106.6
110.2
120.7
134. 1
128.0
107.6
128. 0
136.5
142 .8
147.5
140.4
140.4
56 . 1
66.0
67.1
65.3
62.0
73.7
70.8
72.7
80. 0
83.2
88.4
95.2
101.9
96 .9
105.7
111.7
105.5
111.9
122.2
134.2
127 .8
107 .8
128.8
138.4
144
149 .3
137.4
141 .7
56 .7
66.1
67.4
64.8
62.2
74.0
70.9
73.9
79.6
83.9
89.3
95.0
101.5
97 . 1
145 .2
164.6
165.5
174.1
185.5
147 .4
166.7
166 .5
175.0
186.0
150.2
166 .7
167.2
176.4
187.6
52 .5
67 .6
165.9
55.6
64. 1
67 .0
65.4
62.2
71.4
72.9
70.9
78.8
81.6
87.2
910C.
1954. . .
1955. ..
1956 . . .
1957. ..
1958. . .
1959 ...
1960. ..
1 9 6 1 ...
1962...
1963 ...
1964. . .
1965. ..
1966 . . .
1967.. .
1968. ..
1969.. .
1970...
197 1 ...
1972. ..
1973. ..
1974. ..
1975. ..
1976. . .
1977. ..
1978...
1979. ..
1980. . .
1981...
1982 . . .
1983.. .
1984. . .
1985...
1986 . . .
1987.. .
1988. . .
4.4
20.8
-3.5
-10.4
1 .9
24.7
7 . 1
10.7
10.1
13.2
0.0
7 .8
-16.2
15.5
12.9
9.5
0.0
-15.3
37 .5
0.0
-11.2
4 .2
8.0
-7 .3
-9.3
5 .9
20.0
-4. 7
-6.5
-6 .8
11.2
1.1
3 .4
7 .3
8.2
21.3
15.2
12.2
-9 . 1
-12.3
19 .6
9.3
3.4
-0.3
0.9
-8. 1
-3.7
25 .0
10.7
5 .2
9.4
7 .4
3.8
23.0
33.4
26 . 1
11.0
29 .3
38.5
46.4
33 .4
44.6
57.9
66.7
66 .0
65.3
64.7
73.7
7 1.1
75.7
77.9
84.5
89.9
95.3
99.4
99 .2
106 .0
111.2
05.5
99.1
100.1
106.9
110.2
104.8
122.9
23.3
33. 1
23.8
15.8
31.6
139.8
124.4
132.7
123.5
118.2 .
132.2
138.5
146 .5
132.0
143.2
135.5
157.3
166.6
167.3
178.3
190.5
145.2
135.1
142.9
136.2
158.2
163.8
168.5
179.9
191.0
30.5
138.9
47 .6
30.9
44.5
36 .2
54.4
67 .9
66.9
78.5
58.7
67 .
66 .
65.
66.
73.
7 1 .
75.
84.
90.
95.5
58.4
67.5
66 .5
65.1
67.5
73.1
7 1.4
76.7
79.3
84.7
91 .5
95.8
98.3
101.
106.
10.
04.
26 .0
31.9
0.5
4.5
8.3
CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 11 LEADING INDICATORS OVER
(ANNUAL RATE, P E R C E N T )
11.3
22.7
-5.2
-1.8
-1 1 .0
16 .2
-12.4
8.8
18.1
12 .4
14.7
3.9
11 .4
-4.8
13.4
-1.1
-9.6
19.2
16 .2
16 .5
-6 .3
-1.1
19.7
19.4
16.4
-1 .6
-8.2
-13.4
5.5
19.8
16.4
7 .5
6 .4
3.3
9 .9
910C.
1954. . .
1955 ...
1956...
1957.. .
1958. . .
1959. ..
1960...
196 1 ...
1962. ..
1963 . . .
1964...
1965...
1966 . . .
1967 . . .
1968. . .
1969. ..
1970.. .
1971...
1972. ..
1973...
1974. ..
1975...
1976 . . .
1977...
1978. ..
1979. . .
1980. . .
1981.. .
1982 . . .
1983 . . .
1984...
1985 . . .
1986 . . .
1987 . . .
1988. . .
04.5
57.3
66 .5
66.3
65.0
63.4
74.2
7 1.0
74.8
78.7
84.7
90.2
95.
100.
97 .
05.
12 .
05 .
13.5
7.5
-17.9
3 .8
25.8
3.3
1.7
15.6
-12.8
12.1
12.8
7 .8
-14.3
10.3
8.3
-5 .2
7.1
8.8
0.0
15.8
25.
-19.
2.3
-4.2
-11.7
20.2
16.0
0.9
-1.9
2 .3
7 .8
18.0
19.1
15.7
-22.8
11.7
-8.5
25.3
0.0
5 .2
10.0
10.8
1 .9
10.3
-20.3
-0.8
1 .8
16.0
2 .2
7 .5
2 .7
6 .6
-1.2
3.
-5.
5.
-11.5
-2.8
-3.9
-3.7
17 .2
7 .0
-10.2
4.7
-2.1
4.0
-3 .5
-15.1
28.6
10.6
8. 1
4.2
5.2
0.0
13.0
10.
-10.3
-7 .7
-2 . 1
11.2
-3.5
-2.9
27.9
5.6
-10.6
-11.6
-10.1
32. 1
-6.0
1.8
1.8
-1.8
26.3
-4.8
0.0
17 . 1
9 .5
5 .8
9 .7
3 .8
-9 .3
23.8
1. 1
-1.1
4.3
16.6
-10.3
-27 .0
8.4
-2 . 7
1
-1.3
12.8
1-MONTH
8.2
-2.4
0.0
15 .4
-10.5
18.0
4.1
11.8
10.0
2 . 1
6 .6
-1.2
1 .2
1.8
-10.7
16.8
13.4
3.1
-7.8
12.8
10.5
12.4
15.9
2.7
21.7
5.6
1.9
3 .0
12.2
10.9
-6.0
20.5
-5.9
0.4
-5 .5
13.3
7.5
-1.8
-7.6
23.4
8.0
7 .2
10.5
0.3
-24.4
12 .2
1.5
20.4
2 .9
1.0
8.2
5 .7
2.3
13.5
4.3
-6.4
0.0
18.6
0.0
1 .7
17.6
-10.1
6 .4
7 .0
0.4
-9 .5
9 .8
1.1
5.6
-7.3
-14.8
14.9
8. 1
2 .5
28.3
-3.2
2 .9
10.1
-4.4
1 .9
6 .9
2 .1
-9 . 1
12.9
-8.6
1 .2
1 .4
4.6
-2 . 1
-8.0
28.6
9.3
0.0
-2 .4
-3.2
5 .2
-4.6
0.6
15.8
-8.8
6.4
4. 1
7 .4
7.9
6 .2
1 .2
0.6
28.5
-5.8
2 .3
10.6
3.1
0.0
5.9
0.8
-7.4
17 .4
4 .2
-6 .6
-1.5
0.0
10.5
-5.9
-15.6
2 1.3
4.4
4 .7
-0.5
-8.1
24.6
-5 .7
-0.3
2 .3
10.7
13] 1
4 .7
-8.2
13.1
8.2
-1 .4
3.6
3.2
7 0.8
78.5
80.8
86 .5
93.1
98. 0
96 .5
103.2
110.8
09.5
05.0
55.9
65.1
66.9
65.3
61.9
72.5
71.9
93.7
99.1
09.1
07.3
118.0
82 .4
87 .9
94.8
100.9
97 . 1
05.2
12 .0
06 .5
10.2
20.7
33.6
57.3
66 .4
66.6
65.0
63.4
74.0
71.0
74.8
7 8.7
84.4
89 .8
95.3
100.4
98.1
105.4
12 .0
05 .0
13.4
23. 1
33.3
25.1
13.4
30.5
39. 1
46 .8
32.1
44. 1
35.9
58.9
67.6
66.4
64.8
67.5
73.3
7 1.4
62.1
67 . 3
66 .3
62.8
70.0
72.6
7 0.8
78.3
80.6
86.5
93.2
98. 0
96.5
03.4
10.9
09.8
05 .6
84.9
91.7
95.9
98.2
101.4
107.2
10.4
04.8
13.9
26 .0
31.7
20. 1
119.3
132.2
0.0
133.4
2.0
4.7
8.2
1 .5
36.6
59 .0
63.8
69.3
80.0
91.6
0.8
2.9
6 .7
39.6
62.8
63.9
72.1
83.5
90.7
58.6
66.6
66.5
64.5
65.7
73.1
71.3
75.2
79.6
84.5
90.6
96 .0
99.0
00.0
07.2
11.1
05.5
13.5
25 .0
32 .2
.21.2
.15.7
130.9
39.4
45 .8
45 . 1
38.2
40.9
136.8
56 . 0
65 .3
68.6
79.3
89.4
SPANS
-3.5
-15.4
23.5
3.3
1.7
-4.6
15.1
16.9
-11.5
4.8
5 .6
2 .3
9.9
15.3
-5. 3
-32 .0
17 .4
4.6
15.9
-1.8
0.0
-10.0
20.8
-3.8
-1.1
9 .9
6 .8
9 .8
9. 1
6.4
-9.3
9 .9
13.3
1 .8
-1.5
8.0
17 . 1
-5.0
-28.7
13.5
0.0
10.2
7 . 1
-9 .3
23.4
-15.8
7 .2
11.0
-0.5
6 .6
2.9
2.3
27 .0
-13.3
1.8
-9.4
-4.9
18.7
1.5
8.7
1.3
7 .7
-7.2
2 .4
-1.1
-20.9
10.7
-18.8
10.0
19.6
-3.6
7 .3
9.0
0.6
3 1.4
7 .4
0.0
-14.1
18.7
-12 .4
-6 .5
12.7
8.5
-12.3
7 . 1
10.9
8.7
0.9
-21.8
4.0
12
-12.7
8.8
0.9
5.2
19.8
14.0
7.5
1 .9
-6.3
25
-3
-1
-12
-5 .0
24.0
-6 .6
3.0
2 .8
8.0
14.3
-1.2
14.9
-4.3
29.7
16 .6
10.6
-19.9
-19.6
4.0
9.4
7 .0
-3.2
3.5
-3.3
10.4
-14.0
.0
6 .5
11.3
8.2
6 .6
11.8
0.8
-12.5
18.3
15.0
9.0
-2 .7
-4 . 7
2 1.7
12.5
8.1
6. 1
-7 .7
-3 . 0
-4.1
29.5
8.5
8.6
5 .7
2.2
3. 1
14.4
-6.4
-20.6
17.9
2 .5
4.5
0.1
- 5 2
0.5
4.5
6.5
12. 9
-6. 0
-22 . 8
6
6 .7
3. 8
1. 3
-10. 0
7.1
3.8
3 .2
7 .
-1 .
-1.0
10.2
11.5
-1 .6
-14.5
13.5
10.0
6.2
3.8
-3.9
3 .9
-3.9
3.8
16.5
0.6
6.5
7 .6
2 .2
SPANS
A V E R A G E FOR PERIOD
29.5
0.0
-0.6
-14.0
18.3
-6 .4
-3.3
9 .7
7 .8
8.8
7 .2
9.5
-7.1
5 .2
17.2
-2 .9
1 .2
10.2
14.4
-1.2
-27 .0
11.9
4.9
3.2
10.1
9 .4
2.5
4.3
5.4
-4.3
24.8
-4. 1
-1.8
-12.5
8.4
-0.5
6.5
3 .7
1.1
-10.6
5 .2
-8.6
10.3
8.8
-0.7
9.2
16.0
-3.3
22.7
-0.6
-5.9
-7 .9
12.0
1 . 1
-1.7
6 .9
8.2
4.2
.5
13.4
9 .6
-6 .8
-18.9
14. 1
7.1
-2.5
-0.5
20.5
5.5
6 .4
17 .6
-1.0
-4.8
-2.5
16.3
-7 .3
11.7
5 .9
10.4
8.7
5 .4
10. 1
1 .0
5 .2
2 .4
-11.2
18.8
14.5
8.0
-6.6
-1.5
17 .0
11.3
8.8
0.7
-9 .5
-1.5
-1.3
25.3
8.8
4.9
8.2
4.6
4.3
NOTEi These series contdin no revisions but are reprinted for the convenience of thG user. Percent changes are centered within the
spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 3-month changes are placed on the 3d month. Quarterly and annual figures are averages
of the centered changes.
Annual
A V E R A G E FOR PERIOD
CHANGE IN COMPOSITE INDEX OF 11 LEADING INDICATORS OVER 3-MONTH
(ANNUAL RATE, P E R C E N T )
5 .2
19.7
-0.6
-4.2
-0.6
22 .2
-12.5
13.7
6 .2
11.3
8. 1
6 .6
11.8
2.1
5.1
0.7
-12.6
18.3
15.0
8.8
-2.8
-5.0
2 1.0
12. 1
7.2
5.8
IV Q
AVERAGE TOR PERIOD
5 .0
0.0
28.3
-23.2
13.1
8.6
5 .3
6 .6
-2 .6
1 .3
-6.0
25.0
III Q
25.7
-1 .6
-2 .8
-11.5
12.9
-1.9
-3.7
9 .9
7 .2
0
0
8
1
3
4
8
2
4
2
4
4.0
-8.3
13.5
8.6
-2.1
-1.8
4.0
14.0
-5.8
-22 .0
17.5
0
5
8
0
5
6
5
-10.7
4.3
10.1
-5.6
6.5
3.5
4.2
11.2
- 2 .6
7.1
12 . 5
-6.7
9 .3
12.0
12 . 3
-4.9
-22.9
11.2
-9
13
7
2
6
10
-4
.4
.6
.9
.2
.8
.4
.0
-1.9
7 .6
7.3
-2 .4
-1.3
10.4
11.5
-1.2
-15.1
13.9
8 .6
5 .7
-4.4
4.5
15.5
0.8
5.2
6 .9
2.8
(JUNE
1988)
103
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Foreign
Year
and
mo nth
III III III III III II
c u r r e n t/ per U.S. do l i a r
Japan
West
Germany
France
United
Kingdom
(Yen)
(D. mark)
(Franc)
(Pound)
Japan (yen)
\
154.83
153.41
151.43
143.00
140.48
144.55
150.29
147.33
143.29
143.32
135.40
128.24
1.8596
1.8239
1.8355
1.8125
1.7881
1.8189
1.8482
1.3553
1.8134
1.8006
1.6821
1.6335
6.2007
6.0750
6.1091
6.0332
5.9748
6.0739
6.1530
6.1934
6.0555
6.0160
5.7099
5.5375
\
0.6643
0.6545
0.6280
0.6135
0.6000
0.6139
0.6215
0.6252
0.6081
0.6017
0.5633
0.5468
5.5808
5.7323
5.6893
5.6704
5.7348
2
5.8865
1.6537
1.6965
1.6770
1.6710
1.6935
2
1.7444
127.69
129.17
127.11
124.90
124.79
2
126.40
A
240
West Germany (d. mark)
r
0.5553
0.5688
0.5456
0.5324
0.5349
2
0.5581
Italy
dol1ar
Canada
Exchange value
of the U.S.
dol1ar1
(Dollar)
(March 1973=100)
1987
Jan. . . .
Feb
Mar
Apr....
May
June.. .
July...
Aug. . . .
Sept. . .
Oct
Nov
Dec. . . .
A S
200
160
^
120
2.8
kV / \
V
2.4
\
2.0
1.6
France (franc)
t
1317.17
1297.74
1305.90
1292.96
1290.80
1316.50
1337.96
1344.18
1310.86
1302.58
1238.89
1203.74
L.3605
[.3340
L.3194
L.3183
L.3411
L.3387
L.3262
L.3256
L.3154
L.3097
L.3167
L.3075
A,
/
J
Italy (lira)
A*/
] .2855
]1.2682
]L.2492
1216.88
1249.62
1240.67
1240.99
1258.81
2
1295.90
]
]
^
r
/
5
O.9
0.8
V
V
0.7
B
V
\/ \
B
\
1200
1000
r
n
(index: March 1973 = 100)
"^\
A
y\
140
120
B
III I I I I I I III II | | III III II III III III III III
75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88
1
T h i s i n d e x i s t h e w e i g h t e d - a v e r a g e exchange v a l u e o f t h e U.S. d o l l a r a g a i n s t t h e
plus S w i t z e r l a n d .
W e i g h t s a r e t h e 1 9 7 2 - 7 6 g l o b a l t r a d e o f each o f t h e 10 c o u n t r i e s .
t h e A u g u s t 1978 FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN ( p . 7 0 0 ) .
2
A v e r a g e f o r June 1 t h r o u g h 2 4 .
104
of
the
Federal
Reserve
System.
1.2
1.0
160
Exchange value of the U.S. dollar
•—»•—
1.4
s^—
TV^^
/my
• / \^>
Governors
1400
800
V— • \ _ ^
J~
of
O.S
1.6
f
3oard
0.6
2000
1800
1600
Canada (dollar)
89.29
91.09
89.73
88.95
89.74
2
91.96
.2353
.2373
.2189
7
B
y
V
101.13
99.46
98.99
97.09
96.05
97.78
99.36
99.43
97.23
96.65
91.49
88.70
\
fj
Unit edKi igdorr i (po und)
f
/
10
9
8
/
f
1988
Source:
280
V
\
\
(Lira)
Jan. . . .
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June. . .
July...
Aug
Sept.. .
Oct....
Nov. . . .
Dec
Ratio scale
^ \
Foreign currency per U.S
Year
and
month
\
/
1988
Jan. . . .
Feb....
Mar
Apr....
May....
June. . .
July. . .
Aug. . . .
Sept...
Oct....
Nov
Dec. . . .
III III III III III III III
320
1987
Jan. . . .
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
June. . .
July...
Aug
Sept.. .
Oct
Nov
Dec. . . .
II
Foreign currency per U.S. dollar—
currencies
o f the other G- 10 countries
For a d e s c r i ption of this index, see
100
80
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Basic data
Series t i t l e
(and u n i t of measure)
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing ( h o u r s ) . .
5. Average weekly i n i t i a l claims f o r unemployment insurance, State programs 1 ( t h o u s . ) . . .
8. M f r s . 1 new orders i n 1982 d o l l a r s , consumer
goods and m a t e r i a l s i n d u s t r i e s ( b i l . d o l . ) . .
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies
r e c e i v i n g slower d e l i v e r i e s (percent)
20. Contracts and orders f o r p l a n t and equipment
in 1982 d o l l a r s ( b i l . d o l . )
29. New p r i v a t e housing u n i t s authorized by
l o c a l b u i l d i n g permits (index: 1967=100). . .
36. Change i n i n v e n t o r i e s on hand and on order i n
1982 d o l . , smoothed 2 (ann. r a t e , b i l . d o l . ) .
99. Change i n s e n s i t i v e m a t e r i a l s p r i c e s ,
smoothed 2 (percent)
19. Stock p r i c e s , 500 common stocks
( i n d e x : 1941-43=10)
. . .
106. Money supply M2 i n 1982 d o l l a r s
(bil. dol.)
111. Change i n business and consumer c r e d i t
outstanding (ann. r a t e , percent)
910. Composite index of leading i n d i c a t o r s 3
( i n d e x : 1967=100)
Feb.
1988
Mar.
1988
Net contribution to index
Feb.
to
Mar.
1988
May
Apr.
1988
1988
Mar.
to
Apr.
1988
Apr.
to
May
1988
r40.9
41.2
-0.08
0.25
-0.10
304
296
307
0.16
0.08
- 0 . 13
86.27
8 6.46
r87.49
p88.73
0.01
0.06
0.09
66
69
62
66
0.13
-0.31
0.21
42.78
r40.95
r41 .74
39.72
-0.10
0.05
- 0 . 14
.
114.0
117.7
114.5
0.10
-0.06
-0.04
.
r37.62
r34.22
p24 .02
NA
-0.09
-0.27
NA
rO.08
rO.08
r0.2 1
0 . 36
0 . 00
0.06
0 . 08
2 5 8.13
265.74
262.6 1
0.2 0
-0.08
-0.21
r2 , 4 4 8 . 9
r2 , 4 5 4 .5
r2 , 4 6 2 .5
p2 , 4 6 4 . 1
0.08
0.11
0.03
10.6
r4.1
p 12 . 1
NA
-0.37
0.46
NA
191 .5
r 191 . 8
r192 .8
p 192 . 6
0 . 16
0.52
-0.10
rlO4,729
r105,020
r105 ,269
p 105 , 4 7 8
0.2 3
0.20
0.2 1
r2,741.8
r2 , 7 5 9 . 8
r2,747
p2,748.2
0.3 3
-0.23
0.02
1 34 .4
13 4 . 7
p 136 . 0
0 . 06
0.16
0.13
r443,598
r447 , 6 8 0
NA
0.20
- 0 . 10
NA
p 175 . 9
0.63
-0.11
0.17
0 . 36
0 . 16
-0.31
NA
-0.13
0.13
NA
-0.55
.
.
.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41.
Employees on n o n a g r i c u l t u r a l p a y r o l l s
(thous.)
51. Personal income less t r a n s f e r payments i n
1982 d o l l a r s (ann. r a t e , b i l . d o l . )
47. I n d u s t r i a l production
( i n d e x : 1977=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales i n 1982
dollars (mil. dol.)
920. Composite index of roughly c o i n c i d e n t
i n d i c a t o r s 3 ( i n d e x : 1967=100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average d u r a t i o n of unemployment 1
(weeks)
77. R a t i o , manufacturing and trade i n v e n t o r i e s
to sales i n 1982 d o l l a r s ( r a t i o )
62. Labor cost per u n i t of o u t p u t , m a n u f a c t u r i n g - actual data as a percent of trend (percent) . .
109. Average prime r a t e charged by banks
(percent)
101. Commercial and i n d u s t r i a l loans outstanding
in 1982 d o l l a r s ( m i l . d o l . )
95. R a t i o , consumer i n s t a l l m e n t c r e d i t
outstanding to personal income ( p e r c e n t ) . . . .
930. Composite index of lagging i n d i c a t o r s 3
( i n d e x : 1967=100)
41.0
32 1
115.6
.3
r 135 .5
p445,643
P
P
4l. 1
256.12
rl74.7
rl75.8
r17 5 .6
14.4
13.7
13.4
r l .5 1
p 1.52
99.5
r98.0
p98 . 1
0.44
8 . 84
rl.52
98.3
13.8
0.05
8.51
8.50
8.50
-0.01
0.00
0.35
r361,402
r361,185
r367,282
p366 , 4 5 3
-0.02
0.44
-0.09
r16.04
r l 5 .99
p16.07
NA
- 0 . 19
0.31
NA
r!45.0
r!45.7
rl46.4
0.48
0.48
pl46.5
0.07
NOTE: The net contribution of an individual component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It is
computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components
and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the February 1983 BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (pp. 108-109) or
the 1984 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 67-68) for the weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated.
1
This series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment factor
for the leading index is 0.139; for the coincident index, -0.175; for the lagging index, 0.018.
2
3
105
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
Deviations
from
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted)
reference
peaks
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
TROUGH
7/81
DATA
SERIES
5
THOUSANDS
Percent
—i - 5 0
• 250
-25
• 350
• 450
55
56
-17.2
-17.2
327
57
58
59
60
-24.8
-27.6
-28.1
- 2 5 .8
297
286
284
293
61
62
63
64
-21.0
-11.1
-18.7
-23.0
312
351
321
304
65
66
-25 . 1
-22.3
296
307
DeviActual
data
ations
for
from
specific current
troughs cycle
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted)
L,C,L
i
Percent
-75
Q
327
• 200
9/82
-50
• 400
~25
• 500
• 600
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
TROUGH
9/82
DATA
+ 25
• 300
0
• 700
• 550
SERIES
5
THOUSANDS
+ 50
• 650
57
58
59
60
-49.9
-49.9
-54.5
-56.2
327
327
297
2 86
• 750
61
62
63
64
-56.5
-55 .1
-52.2
-46.2
284
293
312
351
+ 75
+ 25
• 900
+50
• 850
65
66
67
68
-50.8
-53.4
-54.7
-53.0
321
3 04
296
307
21. Average weekly overtime hours,
manufacturing
+ 125
• 950
MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH
CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA
+ 150
21
SERIES
HOURS
Actual
data
21. Average weekly overtime hours,
manufacturing
L.cXl
4.0
55
56
3.7
3.8
57
58
59
60
3.8
3.7
3.9
3.9
61
62
63
64
3.8
3.9
3.7
3.7
65
66
4.0
4.0
- +1.0
— +0.8
1
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
TROUGH
12/82
DATA
- +0.4
SERIES
21
HOURS
3.0
2.5
-
1
2.0
54
55
56
1.4
1.5
1.5
3.7
3.8
3.8
57
58
59
60
1.4
1.6
1 .6
1 .5
3.7
3.9
3.9
3.8
61
62
63
64
1 .6
1.4
1.4
1.7
3.9
3.7
3.7
4.0
0 + 6 + 1 2 + 1 8 + 2 4 + 3 0 + 36 + 4 2 + 4 8 + 5 4 + 6 0 + 66
Months from reference troughs
NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on page 107 of the January
106
.i.ooc
• 1.10C
+ 75
+ 100
•800
- +0.2
0 + 6 +12 + 18 + 24 + 30 + 36 + 42+48 + 54+60 + 66
Months from specific troughs
-
-0.2
-1
-0.4
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Cyclical Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns—Continued
I11111]
r""l
I 1 ""! 1 1 1 1 1 !" 1 "!
I
|
23. Spot market prices, raw industrials
Deviations
from
reference
peaks
|-»|"M.|
1
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT
FROM
REF.
ACTUAL
TROUGH
7/81
DATA
im
TmTimrmTiml
|"M'|»'"|""TmTmT
SERIES
23
1967=100
Per cent
+ 100
-
+ 90
_
+ 80
•
550
•
500
+ 70
-
+ 60
-
+ 50
-
+ 40
57
58
59
60
0.6
2.0
2 .8
1.9
288.3
292.4
294.6
292.0
61
62
63
64
2.3
2.1
0.8
2.0
293. 1
292.5
288.9
292 . 3
65
66
67
3.7
5.2
8.1
297.3
301.6
309.7
450
+ 20
—
+ 10
•
350
55
56
25 . 0
26.8
284.2
288.3
• 300
57
58
59
60
28.6
29.6
28.4
28.9
292 . 4
294.6
292 . 0
293. 1
61
62
63
64
28.6
27.0
28.5
30.7
292.5
288.9
292.3
297.3
65
66
32.6
36.2
301.6
309.7
•
•
250
-20
•
200
51. Personal income less transfer payments in
1982 dollars
55
56
SERIES
51
ANN. RATE
B I L . DOL.
17.0
2671.4
17.6
2686.3
+ 25
57
58
59
60
17.9
18.0
20.0
19.2
2693.0
2694.6
2741.1
2722.7
•
2,800
+ 20
61
62
63
64
20.4
19.4
20.1
20.9
2748.4
2726.3
2741.8
2759.8
• 2.700
+ 15
• 2.600
65
66
20.3
20.4
2747.3
2748.2
+5
©2.500
• 2.300
• 2.200
Months from reference troughs
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
22 . 1
21.3
22.4
21.4
2741.1
2722.7
2748.4
2726.3
65
66
67
68
22.1
22.9
22.4
22.4
2741.8
2759.8
2747.3
2748.2
©2.400
u
0 + 6 +12 + 18 + 24+30 + 36 + 42+48 + 54+60 + 66
+ 80
• 400
+ 70
+ 60
• 350
+ 50
+ 40
+ 30
• 300
+ 20
+ 10
• 250
0
~ 1 0 ^200
51. Personal income less transfer payments in
1982 dollars
Percent
c,c,c
25
•
2,750
20
> 2,650
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT
SPEC.
FROM
ACTUAL
TROUGH
9/82
DATA
SERIES
51
A NN. RATE
B I L . DOL.
19.0
267 1 . 4
19.7
2686.3
20.0
2693.0
20.0
2694.6
• 450
+90
MONTHS
DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT
REF.
FROM
ACTUAL
TROUGH
7/81
DATA
Percent
+ 10
IU
+ 100
SERIES 2 3 *
1967=100
-10
-30
+ 110
400
0
-
+ 120 • 500
DEVIMONTHS
FROM ATIONS CURRENT
SPEC.
FROM
ACTUAL
12/82
TROUGH
DATA
+ 30
-
- i +130
7/71
•
-
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
Percent
-
-
Deviations
from
specific
troughs
23. Spot market prices, raw industrials *
15
• 2.550
• 2.450
• 2.350
-
1
0
• 2,250
i Illinium Illinium linii iiiiiliiinliini iniiliinil
0 + 6 +12 + 18 + 24+30+36 + 42+48 + 54+60 + 66
Months from specific troughs
NOTE: For an explanation of these charts, see "How to Read Charts" on p. 107 of the January 1988 issue.
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
1
107
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Consumer sentiment, index
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Plant and equipment expenditures, constant dollars..
Plant and equipment expenditures, current dollars....
Plant and equipment expenditures, Dl
Prices, manufacturing, Dl
Prices, retail trade, Dl
Prices, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Sales, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Automobiles
Imports of automobiles and parts
Personal consumption expenditures
Current issue
number
Charts
Tables
(issue date)
Series
description
(*)
10/87
58
974
975
971
100
61
970
976
978
977
972
973
22
38
38
38
24
24
38
38
38
38
38
38
65
76
76
76
67
67
76
76
76
76
76
76
6/87
8/87
8/87
8/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
8/87
8/87
8/87
8/87
8/87
20
37
37
37
'"23
23
37
37
37
37
37
616
55
56
22
92
65
10/87
9/87
56
39
B
Balance of payments—See International transactions.
Bank loans—See Business Loans.
Bank rates—See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve ..
Bonds—See Interest rates.
Borrowing-See Credit.
Budget—See Government.
Building—See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures—See Investment, capital.
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation, index
Business incorporations
Business inventories-See Inventories.
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Business saving
Canada—See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing
Materials
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
Newly approved
Newly approved, Dl
Capital equipment, producer price index
Capital investment—See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, corporate, current dollars
Civilian labor force—See also Employment.
Employment
Employment as percent of population
Labor force
Unemployed
Coincident indicators, four
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Ratio to lagging indicators, composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded ..
Commercial and industrial loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Compensation—See also Income.
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Four coinciders, index
Four coinciders, rate of change
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
Six laggers, index
Six laggers, rate of change
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Eleven leaders, index
Eleven leaders, rate of change
Inventory investment and purchasing
Money and financial flows
Profitability
See notes at end of index.
108
93
94
35
35
33
33
29
76
13,25
24
67
67
5/88
12/87
24
12
14
12
13
33
23
23
72
65
65
6/87
1/88
1/88
34
21
21
101
72
112
295
15,35
35
32
46
73
73
71
82
5/87
5/87
5/87
1/88
32
32
32
26
82
84
20
20
64
64
11/87
11/87
14
14
97
11
965
333
24
24
37
48
66
66
75
86
5/88
5/88
5/88
3/88
22
22
22
51
914
35
34
'29'
29
60
70
70
1/86
9/87
9/87
5
26
26
442
90
441
37
51
17
51
18,51
89
62
89
62,89
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
9
9
9
9
920
920c
951
940
9
10
39
36
11
23
60
5
74
60
66
5/88
5/88
12/87
11/87
5/88
5
5
21
101
72
112
15,35
35
32
73
73
71
5/87
5/87
5/87
32
32
32
345
280
49
45
87
82
10/87
1/88
46
46
64
30,47
70,83
9/87
46
346
49
88
10/87
46
340
49
87
8/87
5
341
348
349
49
50
50
87
88
88
4/88
7/87
7/87
5
53
53
920
920c
940
10
39
11
930
930c
10
39
914
910
910c
915
917
916
10'
39
11
11
11
60
60
5/88
5/88
11/87
5
"5
60
10/87
10/87
5
60
60
1/86
6/88
6/88
1/88
1/88
1/88
5
5
60
60
60
5
5
5
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and
industrial buildings
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales....
Gross private fixed investment
Nonresidential, constant dollars
Nonresidential, percent of GNP
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Housing starts
Consumer finished goods, producer price index
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
Consumer goods, industrial production
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices—See also International comparisons.
All items
Food
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures—See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contract awards, Defense Department
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Corporate bond yields
Corporate profits—See Profits.
Costs—See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Borrowing, total private
Business loans
Loans outstanding, constant dollars
Loans outstanding, current dollars
Loans outstanding, net change
Consumer installment credit
Credit outstanding
Net change
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Credit outstanding, percent change
Mortgage debt, net change
Crude and intermediate materials, change in
producer prices
Crude materials, producer price index
Debt-See Credit.
Defense and space equipment, industrial production ....
Defense Department
Gross obligations incurred
Gross unpaid obligations
Net outlays
Personnel, civilian
Personnel, military
Prime contract awards
Defense products
Inventories, manufacturers'
New orders, manufacturers'
Shipments, manufacturers'
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products industries, employment
Defense purchases, goods and services
Defense purchases, percent of GNP
Deficit—See Government.
Deflators—See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Deliveries, vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Coincident indicators
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagncultural payrolls
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators
Leading indicators
New orders, durable goods industries
New orders, durable goods industries, components..
New orders, manufacturing
Plant and equipment expenditures
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, manufacturing and trade
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Raw industrials, spot market prices, components ....
Sales, manufacturing and trade
Selling prices, manufacturing
Selling prices, retail trade
Selling prices, wholesale trade
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Disposable personal income—See income.
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series .
number Charts
Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(*)
29
13,25
9
69
23
24
66
67
5/88
21
17
25
47
25
25
47
25
48
12,21
22
67
83
67
67
83
67
86
64
65
9/87
12/87
9/87
9/87
12/87
5/88
3/88
4/88
12/87
40
40
40
40
40
24
51
15
12
66
113
95
39
35
32
15,35
33
73
72
73
72
5/88
5/88
5/88
2/88
33
33
33
34
320
322
58
49
49
22
84,95
3/88
3/88
6/87
49
49
20
525
53
90
7/87
55
20
12,23
66
5/88
21
10
116
23
34
66
73
248
87
89
249
28
334
5/88
21
35
10/87
101
72
112
15,35
35
32
73
73
71
5/87
5/87
5/87
32
32
32
66
113
95
39
111
33
35
32
15,35
33
13,32
32
73
72
73
72
72
71
5/88
5/88
5/88
2/88
5/87
9/86
33
33
33
34
31
31
98
331
28
48
69
85
4/88
3/88
51
50
517
543
580
578
577
525
53
53
54
55
55
53
90
90
91
91
91
90
7/87
10/87
10/87
7/87
7/87
7/87
55
559
548
588
561
570
564
565
54
53
54
54
55
55
55
91
90
91
91
91
91
91
6/88
6/88
6/88
6/88
8/87
10/87
10/87
17
15
17
15
5
43
43
39
32
33
12,21
72
64
2/88
1/88
34
17
965
951
974
963
966
37
36
38
36
37
5/88
12/87
8/87
10/87
12/87
22
5
37
5
12
962
975
952
950
964
36
38
36
36
37
75
74
76
74
75
78
74
76
74
74
2/88
8/87
12/87
6/87
9/87
8
37
5
5
15
971
970
960
972
967
38
38
37
38
37
8/87
11/87
5/88
8/87
1/88
'37
23
37
37
25
973
976
978
977
968
961
38
38
38
38
37
36
8/87
8/87
8/87
8/87
2/87
8/87
37
37
37
37
25
557
12/87
75
77
76
76
75
76
75
79
76
76
76
76
75
74
77
55
56
56
56
55
5
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Earnings—See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Civilian labor force
Defense Department personnel, civilian
Defense Department personnel, military
Employee hours in nonagncultural establishments
Rate of change
Total
Employees in goods-producing industries
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagncultural payrolls
Employees on private nonagncultural payrolls, Dl
Employment, civilian
Employment, defense products industries
Employment, ratio to population
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers.
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl
Overtime hours, manufacturing
Participation rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Participation rate, females 20 years and over
Participation rate, males 20 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons.
Persons engaged in nonagncultural activities
Unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of age
Unemployed, females 20 years and over
Unemployed, full-time workers
Unemployed, males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment, civilian
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured
Unemployment rate, total
Workweek, manufacturing
Workweek, manufacturing, components
Workweek, manufacturing, Dl
Equipment—See Investment, capital.
Exports—See International transactions.
Federal funds rate
Federal Government—See Government.
Federal Reserve, member bank borrowings from
Final sales in constant dollars
Financial flows, Cl
Fixed investment—See Investment, capital.
Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic
business product
Food—See Consumer prices.
Foreign trade—See International transactions.
France—See International comparisons.
Free reserves
Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, constant dollars
Federal, current dollars
Federal, percent of GNP.
National defense...
National defense, percent of GNP
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Gross domestic business product, fixed-weighted
price index
Gross domestic product, labor cost per unit
Gross national product
GNP, constant dollars
GNP, constant dollars, differences
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes
GNP, current dollars
GNP, current dollars, differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
GNP, ratio to money supply Ml
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP, constant dollars
Gross private domestic investment—See Investment, capital.
Current issue
Series
number
^ page numbers)
Charts
441
578
577
51
55
55
48c
48
40
974
41
963
442
570
90
46
60
5
962
21
453
452
451
448
42
446
445
447
444
91
37
44
45
43
1
39
17
17
38
14,17
36
51
55
17
16
16
12,16
36
16
51
51
51
51
17
51
51
51
51
15,18
18,51
18
18
18
12,16
961
36
Tables
89
91
91
6l'
62
76
62
74
89
91
62
61
61
61
74
61
89
89
89
89
62
89
89
89
89
62
62,89
62
62
62
61
77
74
Historical
data
(issue date)
2/88
7/87
7/87
9/87
9/87
8/87
8/87
8/87
10/87
2/88
8/87
2/88
12/87
2/88
2/88
2/88
8/87
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
5/88
2/88
8/87
8/87
9
56
56
"5
5
37
5
5
9
5
9
9
9
8
8
5
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
8
9
5
"5
119
94
213
917
33
40
11
72
80
60
2/88
10/87
1/88
35
38
5
9/87
2/88
9/87
502
501
500
512
511
510
298
52
52
52
52
52
52
46
90
90
90
90
90
90
83
9/87
9/87
9/87
9/87
9/87
9/87
1/88
53
53
53
53
53
53
48
263
262
265
564
565
267
266
268
261
260
43
43
47
55
55
43
43
47
43
43
81
81
83
91
91
81
81
83
81
81
1/88
1/88
1/88
10/87
10/87
1/88
1/88
1/88
1/8*
1/88
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
43
311
68
48
30
84
70
9/87
9/87
49
28
50
50b
50c
200
200b
200c
107
49
310
217
19,40
63,80
80
80
80
80
80
71
63
84
80
9/87
9/87
9/87
10/87
10/87
10/87
5/88
9/87
9/87
10/87
38
38
38
38
38
38
30
14
38
38
39
40
31
20
48
40
H
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Hours, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Average weekly hours, components
Average weekly hours, Dl
Average weekly overtime
Series
description
(•)
46
60
16
16
61
61
12/87
2/88
1
12,16
36
16
61
77
74
61
8/87
961
21
8/87
8/87
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Housing
Housing starts
Housing units authorized by local building permits..
Residential GPDI, constant dollars
Residential GPDI, percent of GNP
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Imports—See International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Compensation of employees
Compensation of employees, percent of
national income
Compensation, real average hourly, nonfarm
business sector
Consumer installment credit, ratio to personal income
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj
Corporate profits with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita,
constant dollars
Earnings, average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Earnings, real average hourly, private nonfarm
economy
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income
National income
Personal income, constant dollars
Personal income, current dollars
Personal income less transfer payments, constant dollars
Rate of change
Total
Personal income, ratio to money supply M2
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj, percent
of national income
Rental income of persons with CCAdj
Rental income of persons with CCAdj, percent
of national income
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries in mining, manufacturing,
and construction
Incorporations, new businesses
Industrial commodities, producer price index
Industrial production—See also International comparisons.
Business equipment
Consumer goods
Defense and space equipment
Durable manufactures
Nondurable manufactures
Total
Total, components.
Total, Dl
Total, rate of change
Industrials, raw, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index.
Spot market index
Installment credit—See Credit.
Insured unemployment
Average weekly initial claims
Average weekly initial claims, Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest, net
Interest, net, percent of national income.
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, secondary market,
Municipal bond yields.
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields.
Intermediate materials, producer price index
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
Italy
United Kingdom
United States.
West Germany.
Industrial production
Canada.
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States.
West Germany
Series
number
28
29
249
Current issue
numbers)
Tables
(page
Charts
25
13,25
25
47
67
67
67
83
310
Historical
data
(issue date)
5/88
5/88
9/87
12/87
Series
description
(*)
24
24
40
40
9/87
345
280
49
45
87
82
10/87
1/88
46
46
64
30,47
70,83
9/87
46
346
95
286
49
15,35
45
88
82
10/87
5/88
1/88
46
33
26
287
225
224
47
40
40
83
80
80
1/88
10/87
10/87
26
11
11
227
40
80
10/87
11
340
49
87
8/87
5
341
652
651
288
289
220
52
223
49
87
93
93
82
83
82
63
63
4/88
7/87
7/87
1/88
1/88
10/87
9/87
9/87
5
57
57
47
47
46
11
11
51c
51
108
282
39
14,19
31
45
82
9/87
9/87
5/88
1/88
11
30
47
283
284
47
45
83
82
1/88
1/88
47
47
285
348
349
47
50
50
83
88
88
1/88
7/87
7/87
47
53
53
53
13
335
19
23
48
63
85
4/88
1/88
3/88
11
21
51
12/87
12/87
12/87
12/87
12/87
12/87
12
12
13
12
12
12
12/87
12/87
12
76
75
557
73
74
47
966
47c
57
57
45
47
45
19
40
73
63
71
65
67
24
22
65
54
91
63
20
20
63
14,20,58 63,94
70
/o
'3/
39
75
967
23
37'
28
79
75
69
1/88
1/88
5
962
288
289
12,16
36
18
45
47
61
74
62
82
83
2/88
2/88
5/88
1/88
1/88
47
47
67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
332
35
34
34
34
34
35
34
34
48
73
73
72
73
73
73
72
73
86
1/88
5/88
6/88
6/88
5/88
2/88
5/88
5/88
3/88
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
50
733
736
737
738
732
59
59
59
59
59
49
59
96
95
96
95
95
84,95
95
4/88
4/88
4/88
4/88
4/88
3/88
4/88
60
61
61
61
60
49
61
6/88
6/88
6/88
6/88
6/88
6/88
12/87
6/88
59
45
320
735
94
723
58
94
726
58
94
727
58
94
58
728
94
721
58
94
722
58
47 14,20,58 63,94
725
58
94
25
25
8
8
8
59
59
59
58
58
12
59
See notes at end of index.
109
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
International comparisons—Continued
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
International transactions
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, excluding military aid
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Exports of domestic agricultural products
Exports of goods and services, constant dollars
Exports of goods and services, current dollars
Exports of goods and services, excluding military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, general
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, excluding military ....
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services
Imports of goods and services, constant dollars
Imports of goods and services, current dollars
Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
Income on foreign investment in the United States ....
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Net exports of goods and services.
constant dollars
Net exports of goods and services,
current dollars
Net exports of goods and services, percent of GNP....
Inventories
Business inventories, change, constant dollars
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories, change, percent of GNP
Defense products, manufacturers'
Finished goods, manufacturers'
Inventories to sales ratio, manufacturing and trade ...
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Manufacturing and trade
Manufacturing and trade, change
Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing and trade, on hand and
on order, change
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers'
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers', change
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, new, Dl
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
Construction expenditures, business, plus machinery
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Business inventories, change—See Inventories.
Fixed investment, constant dollars
fixed investment, current dollars
Nonresidential. constant dollars
Nonresidential. percent of GNP
Nonresidential producers' durable equipment,
constant dollars
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
Residential, constant dollars
Residential, percent of GNP
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
New orders, nondefense capital goods,
constant dollars
New orders, nondefense capital goods.
current dollars
Plant and equipment
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business, Dl
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investment in the United States
Income on U.S. investment abroad
Italy-See International comparisons.
Current issue
numbers)
Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(*)
96
96
96
96
96
96
96
7/87
7/87
7/87
7/87
7/87
7/87
7/87
63
63
63
63
63
25
63
57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57
93
93
92
93
92
82
82
93
92
92
93
92
93
82
82
92
93
93
7/87
7/87
10/87
7/87
10/87
12/87
12/87
7/87
10/87
10/87
7/87
10/87
7/87
12/87
12/87
10/87
7/87
7/87
57
57
56
57
56
44
44
57
56
56
57
56
57
44
44
56
57
57
255
44
82
12/87
44
250
251
44
47
82
83
12/87
12/87
44
44
30
245
247
559
65
11
915
71
31
70
975
26,42
42
47
54
27
15,27
11
27
26
27
38
68,81
81
83
91
68
68
60
68
68
68
76
9/87
12/87
12/87
6/88
5/87
11/87
1/88
11/87
6/87
11/87
8/87
40
40
40
17
17
17
5
17
17
17
37
36
13,26
68
4/88
17
78
27
68
5/87
17
38
26
68
5/87
17
97
11
965
914
9
24
24
37
66
66
75
60
66
5/88
5/88
5/88
1/86
5/88
22
22
22
5
21
(page
Series
number
Charts
743
746
747
748
742
19
745
59
59
59
59
59
59
59
667
622
602
618
604
256
252
668
606
612
620
616
669
257
253
614
652
651
23
243
242
86
248
42
42
25
47
81
81
67
83
11/87
11/87
9/87
12/87
40
40
40
40
88
87
89
249
241
240
25
25
25
47
42
42
67
67
67
83
81
81
9/87
9/87
9/87
12/87
11/87
11/87
40
40
40
40
40
40
27
23
66
11/87
15
24
23
66
11/87
15
20
10
100
61
970
12,23
23
24
24
38
66
66
67
67
76
5/88
5/88
11 8 7
11/87
11/87
21
652
651
57
57
93
93
7/87
7.-87
57
57
notes at end of index
110
68
63
30
30
70
70
9 87
10/87
62
62
26
30
15
29
70
70
70
10 87
10 87
10 87
930
930c
952
10
39
36
60
10; 87
10 87
12 87
74
Leading indicators, eleven
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets, change in total
Loans—See Credit.
number
Charts
Tables
(issue date)
910
910c
950
14
104
10
39
36
33
31
60
....
74
72
71
6/88
6/88
6/87
6/87
5/88
5
34
29
26
20
12,21
68
64
64
5/87
11/87
4/88
17
14
15
5
M
Japan- See International comparisons.
Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product ...
Labor cost per unit of output, business sector ...
Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Labor cost, price per unit of. nonfarm business..
Labor force- See Employment.
Lagging indicators, six
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories
Materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturers' inventories, change
Materials, capacity utilization rate
Materials, new orders for consumer goods and
Materials prices—See Price indexes.
Merchandise trade—See International transactions.
Military—See Defense.
Money and financial flows, Cl
Money supply
Liquid assets, change in total
Money supply M l , constant dollars
Money supply M l , percent changes
Money supply M2, constant dollars
Money supply M2. percent changes
Ratio. GNP to money supply Ml
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2
Mortgage debt, net change
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
917
11
104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117
31
31
31
13,31
31
31
31
32
34
34
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
71
73
73
5/88
5/88
5/88
5/88
5/88
5/88
5/88
9/86
6/88
5/88
29
29'
29
30
29
30
30
31
35
35
27
24
8
23
23
12,21
66
66
64
11/87
11/87
4/88
15
15
15
20
12,23
66
5/88
21
10
548
7
6
23
53
21
21
5/88
6/88
4/88
4/88
21
15
15
15
964
971
37'
38
66
90
64
64
77
75
76
9/87
8/87
15
37
88
87
86
248
25
25
25
47
67
67
67
83
9/87
9/87
9/87
12/87
40
40
40
40
517
543
721
53
53
58
90
90
94
7/87
10/87
6/88
55
55
58
N
National defense—See Defense.
National Government—See Government.
National income—See income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense,
constant dollars
Capital goods industries, nondefense, current dollars..
Consumer goods and materials, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
constant dollars
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment,
current dollars
Defense products
Durable goods industries, constant dollars
Durable goods industries, current dollars
Components
Diffusion index
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment
Producers' durable equipment, constant dollars
Structures, constant dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Obligations incurred, Defense Department
Obligations unpaid, Defense Department
OECD. European countries, industrial production .
Orders—See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Outlays, Defense Department
Output—See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Goods output, constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
Actual data
Actual data as percent of trend
Per hour, business sector
Per hour, nonfarm business sector
Ratio to capacity, manufacturing
Ratio to capacity, materials
Overtime hours, manufacturing
Participation rates, civilian labor force
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable goods, constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services, current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total, percent of GNP
Personal income—See Income.
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and petroleum products, imports .
580
10/87
62
62
370
358
82
84
21
30
15
50
50
20
20
16
70
70
88
88
64
64
61
10/87
10/87
10/87
10/87
11/87
11/87
8/87
28
28
52
52
14
14
5
453
452
451
51
51
51
89
89
89
2/88
2/88
2/88
9
9
9
55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235
22
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
41
47
65
80
80
81
81
81
81
80
80
83
9/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
11/87
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
292
293
614
46
46
56
82
83
92
1/88
1/88
10/87
48
48
56
ALPHABETICAL INDEX—SERIES FINDING GUIDE—Continued
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Plant and equipment See also Investment, capital.
Contracts and orders, constant dollars
Contracts and orders, current dollars
Expenditures by business, constant dollars
Expenditures by business, current dollars
Expenditures by business, Dl
Population, civilian employment as percent of
Price indexes
Consumer prices See also International comparisons.
All items..'
Food
Deflators
Fixed weighted, gross domestic business product
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Labor cost, price per unit of. nonfarm business
Producer prices
All commodities
Capital equipment
Crude materials
Finished consumer goods
Industrial commodities
Intermediate materials
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Stock prices See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Price to unit labor cost, nonfarm business
Prices, selling
Manufacturing. Dl
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prune contract awards, Defense Department
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer prices See Price indexes.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresidential, GPDI
Production See Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Productivity
Output per hour, business sector
Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate profits after tax
Constant dollars
Current dollars
With IVA and CCAdj. constant dollars
With IVA and CCAdj, current dollars
Corporate profits before tax
With IVA and CCAd|
With IVA and CCAdj. percent of national income
Manufacturing and trade. Dl
Manufacturing, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCAd| to corporate
domestic income
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCAdj. percent of
national income
Raw industrials, spot market prices
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
Rental income of persons with CCAd)
Rental income of persons with CCAdj. percent
of national income
Reserves, free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars...
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
20
10
100
61
970
90
12,23
23
24
24
38
17
Tables
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(*)
66
66
67
67
76
62
5/88
5/88
11/87
11/87
11/87
2/88
21
21
23
Series title
(See complete titles in "Titles and
Sources of Series," following this index)
Residential fixed investment, percent of GNP ..
Residential structures—See Housing.
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Series
number
Current issue
numbers)
Charts
Tables
(page
Historical
data
(issue date)
Series
description
(*)
249
47
83
12/87
40
59
54
22
22
65
65
5/81
20
J/Ol
23
9
320
322
49
49
84,95
84
3/88
3/88
49
49
311
310
26
48
48
29
84
84
70
9/87
9/87
10/87
49
38
28
330
333
331
334
335
332
98
48
48
48
48
48
48
28
85
86
85
86
85
86
69
3/88
3/88
3/88
3/88
3/88
3/88
4/88
50
51
50
51
51
50
51
967'
23
37
28
79
75
69
1/88
1/88
25'
25
98
99
28
13,28
69
69
4/88
4/88
51
25
19
968
26
13,28
37
29
69
75
70
7/87
2/87
10/87
25
25
28
976
978
977
525
109
38
38
38
53
35
76
76
76
90
73
8/87
8/87
8/87
7/87
2/88
37
37
37
55
35
88
25
67
9/87
40
370
358
916
50
50
11
88
88
60
10/87
10/87
1/88
52
52
5
18
16
80
79
28
28
29
29
69
69
69
69
9/87
9/87
9 87
9/87
26
26
26
26
286
287
972
960
15
916
22
45
47
38
37
29
11
29
82
83
76
75
70
60
69
1/88
188
8 87
5 88
1 88
1-88
9 87
26
26
37
37
27
5
26
81
282
29
45
70
82
9 87
1 88
26
47
283
47
83
1 88
47
Salaries—See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl
Ratio, inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Retail sales, constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Business saving
Government surplus or deficit
Gross saving
Personal saving
Personal saving rate
Selling prices—See Prices, selling
Sensitive crude and intermediate materials, change
in producer prices
Sensitive materials prices, percent change
Shipments of defense products
Spot market prices, raw industrials
Components
Diffusion index
Spot market index
State and local government—See Government.
Stock prices—See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Surplus—See Government.
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields...
10/87
213
69
57
56
973
77
59
54
24
14.22
22
38
15,27
22
22
67
65
65
76
68
65
65
8/87
11/87
11/87
8/87
11/87
5/88
5/88
17
17
17
37
17
20
20
295
298
290
292
293
46
46
46
46
46
82
83
82
82
83
1/88
1/88
1/88
1/88
1/88
26
48
48
48
48
98
99
588
28
13,28
54
69
69
91
4/88
4/88
6/88
51
25
17
967
23
37
28
79
75
69
1/88
1/88
25
25
19
968
13,28
37
69
75
7/87
2/87
25
25
114
115
34
34
72
73
5/88
5/88
35
35
91
60
5
962
15,18
16
12,16
36
62
61
61
74
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
9
9
8
8
446
445
447
444
37
51
51
51
51
18,51
89
89
89
89
62,89
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
2/88
9
9
9
9
9
44
45
43
18
18
18
62
62
62
2/88
5/88
2/88
9
8
9
561
96
25
54
21
21
91
64
64
6/88
6/88
6/88
15
15
15
31
31
12.21
71
71
64
5/88
5/88
1/88
30
30
17
1
12.16
5
36
61
77
74
8/87
961
8/87
"5
U
967
23
284
37
28
45
79
75
69
82
285
93
89
47
33
25
83
72
67
188
1 88
1 88
25
25
47
1 88
2 88
9 87
47
35
40
Unemployment
Duration of unemployment, average
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance
Initial claims for unemployment insurance, Dl
Number unemployed
Both sexes 16-19 years of age
Females 20 years and over
Full-time workers
Males 20 years and over
Total unemployed
Unemployment rates
15 weeks and over
Insured unemployment
Total
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Defense products
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change
United Kingdom—See International comparisons.
Velocity of money
GNP to money supply M l , ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio
Vendor performance, slower deliveries
W
Wages and salaries—See Compensation.
West Germany—See International comparisons.
Wholesale (producer) prices—See Price indexes.
Workweek, manufacturing
Average weekly hours
Components
Diffusion index
NOTE: CCAdj. capital consumption adjustment; Cl, composite index; Dl. diffusion index; GNP. gross national product; GPDI. gross private domestic investment; IVA. inventory valuation adjustment.
* The number shown is the page of the Handbook of Cyclical Indicators (1984) on which the series description appears.
111
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this
report in which they appear. Series numbers are for
identification only and do not reflect relationships or
order among the series. " M " following a series title
indicates monthly data; " Q " indicates quarterly data.
Data apply to the whole period except when indicated by
"EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ" (end of quarter).
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below
are referred to by number:
Source 1 —U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Following the source for each series is an indication of
the pages on which that series appears. The "Series
Finding Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers
for each series.
I-A. Composite Indexes
910.
10.
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, and McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis
(23,66)
11.
Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).—The Conference
Board
(24,66)
12.
Index of net business formation (M).—Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic AnalyInc.
13.
14.
15.
914.
915.
1
(10,39,60)
Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1
(11,60)
Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 99) (M).-Source
1
(11,60)
916.
Composite index of profitability
19,26,80) (M).-Source 1
917.
Composite index of money and financial flows
(includes series 104, 106, 111) (M).—Source
1
(11,60)
920.
930.
(includes series
(11,60)
Current liabilities of business failures (M).—Dun
16.
Profits after taxes per dollar of sales, manufacturing corporations (Q).—Source 2 and Federal Trade
Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(29,70)
18.
Source 1
37.
Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3
38.
Change in manufacturers' inventories, materials
and supplies on hand and on order (M).—Source
39.
Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent
30 days and over (EOM).—American Bankers
Association
(33,72)
40.
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, goods-
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (M).—Source
1
2
42.
(M).—Source
(11,60)
3
(M).—
Source 3
(16,61)
43.
Unemployment rate (M).-Source 3
(18,62)
44.
Unemployment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks
and over (M).-Source 3
(18,62)
45.
Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration
(18,62)
46.
Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
( M ) . - T h e Conference Board
(16,61)
47.
Index of industrial production (M).—Source 4
48.
Employee hours in nonagricultural establishments
49.
Value of goods output in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(20,63)
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
(M).-Source 3
Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Source 2
(23,66)
50.
Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source
25.
Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).—Source 2
(21,64)
51.
Ratio, implicit price deflator to unit labor cost,
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Sources 1 and 3
Personal income less transfer payments in 1982
dollars ( M ) . - S o u r c e 1
(14,19,39,63)
52.
Personal income in 1982 dollars (M).—Source 1
53.
Wages and salaries in 1982 dollars, mining, manu-
54.
Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source
2
(22,65)
55.
Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles
56.
Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars
(M).—Sources 1 and 2
(22.65)
(M).—Source 3
(12,16,61,77)
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
of Labor, Employment and Training Administration;
26.
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
27.
6. Manufacturers' new orders in current dollars, durable
(21,64,77)
7. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, durable goods industries (M).-Sources 1 and 2
New private housing units started
2
29.
Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits ( M ) . - S o u r c e 2
sumer goods and materials industries (M).—Sources
land 2
9.
(12,21,64)
30.
permission. This series may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source.)
112
(23,66)
(M).—Source
(25,67)
(13,25,67)
facturing, and construction (M).—Source 1
(Q).-Source 1
(19.63)
(22,65)
(26,42,68,81)
57.
31.
Change in manufacturing and trade inventories
(M).-Sources 1 and 2
(26,68)
Manufacturing and trade sales in 1982 dollars
(M).-Sources 1 and 2
(14,22,65)
58.
32.
Vendor performance, percent of companies receiving slower deliveries ( M ) . — Purchasing Management Association of Chicago
(12.21.64)
Index of consumer sentiment (Q.M).—University
of Michigan, Survey Research Center
(22.65)
59.
Sales of retail stores in 1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 2
(22,65)
Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (Used by
(19,39,40,63,80)
(19,63)
Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars ( Q ) . —
Source 1
Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).—McGraw-
Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, nondefense capital goods industries (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(23,66)
28.
(21,64)
8. Manufacturers' new orders in 1982 dollars, con-
1
(29,70)
(12,16,61)
goods industries (M).—Source 2
(17,39,61)
24.
Average weekly hours of production or nonsuper-
insurance, State programs (M) —U.S. Department
(14,17,62)
Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activi(17,62)
(28,69,79)
I-B. Cyclical Indicators
(17,62)
ties ( M ) . - S o u r c e 3
Average weekly overtime hours of production or
nonsupervisory workers, manufacturing
(26,68)
producing industries (M).—Source 3
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and McGraw-Hill
Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment
by Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(12,23,66)
Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to
(29,70)
(18,51,62,89)
20.
Index of spot market prices, raw industrial materials (M).—Source 3 and Commodity Research Bureau,
Inc. (Used by permission. Beginning with June 1981,
this series may not be reproduced without written
permission from Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.)
visory workers, manufacturing
Change in manufacturing and trade inventories on
hand and on order in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1
and 2
(13,26,68)
41.
23.
1.
36.
Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).—
Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)
Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax to total
corporate domestic income (Q).—Source 1
(29,69)
1
Corporate net cash flow in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source
19.
(M).-Source
(29,70)
35.
(28,69)
22.
lagging composite index (series 930)
Source 1
(28,69)
Corporate profits after tax in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
(10,39,60)
Corporate net cash flow in current dollars (Q).—
Corporate profits after tax in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
21.
1
34.
(33,72)
Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators (includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) ( M ) - S o u r c e
1
(10,39,60)
series 62, 77, 91, 95, 101, 109)
940.
(23,65)
Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis and National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
(23,65)
& Bradstreet, Inc.
Composite index of eleven leading indicators (in(M).-Source
Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies ( M ) . —
Sources 1; 4; American Council of Life Insurance;
Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; and Federal Home
Loan Bank Board; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(32,71)
sis and National Bureau of Economic Research,
cludes series 1, 5, 8, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 99, 106,
111)
33.
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
I-C. Diffusion Indexes
60.
Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers to
number of persons unemployed (M).—Sources 1,
3, and The Conference Board
(16,61)
88.
950.
New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(24,67)
89. Gross private residential fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(25,67)
Diffusion index of eleven leading indicator components (M).-Source 1
(36,74)
61.
951.
Index of labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(15,30,70)
90. Ratio, civilian employment to population of working age (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(17,62)
Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).—Source 1
(36,74)
952.
Index of unit labor cost, business sector (Q).—Source
3
(30,70)
Average duration of unemployment in weeks (M).—
Source 3
(15,18,62)
Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(36,74)
63.
91
960.
64.
Compensation of employees as a percent of national
93. Free reserves (M).-Source 4
income (Q).-Source 1
94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source 4
(33,72)
Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing—about
600 companies (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.)
(37,75)
961.
Diffusion index of average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers, 20 manufacturing
industries (M).-Sources 1 and 3
(36,74,77)
962.
Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs, 51 areas (M).—Source
1 and U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and
Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(36,74)
963.
Diffusion index of employees on private nonagricul-
62.
65.
(30,47,70,83)
Manufacturers' inventories, finished goods(EOM) .—
Source 2
66.
67.
68.
69.
(27,68)
Consumer installment credit outstanding (EOM).—
Source 4
(35,73)
4
(35,73)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, 1,000 manufac-
Labor cost in current dollars per unit of gross
domestic product in 1982 dollars, nonfinancial corporations (Q).-Source 1
(30,70)
turing corporations (EOQ).—The Conference Board
Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
(M).—Source
(24,67)
(27,68)
(27,68)
Reserve Bank of New York
75.
3, and Commodity Research Bureau, Inc.
100.
(35,73)
Index of industrial production, durable manufactures (M).-Source 4
(20,63)
Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (M).-Source 4
(20,63)
Index of industrial production, consumer goods
(M).-Source 4
101.
104.
Change in total liquid assets (M).—Sources 1 and
105.
Money supply Ml in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1
and 4
(31,71)
4
Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source 4
(24,67)
77.
Ratio, manufacturing and trade inventories to sales in
79.
106.
Money supply M2 in 1982 dollars (M).—Sources 1
and 4
(13,31,71)
107.
Ratio, gross national product to money supply Ml
(Q).-Sources 1 and 4
Corporate profits after tax with inventory valuarent dollars (Q).-Source 1
110.
Funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(32,72)
m
Change in business and consumer credit outstanding
(M).—Sources 1, 4, Federal Home Loan Bank Board,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York
(13,32,72)
112.
tion and capital consumption adjustments in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
81.
(29,69)
113
Ratio, corporate domestic profits after tax with
inventory valuation and capital consumption adjust-
114.
ments to total corporate domestic income (Q).—
Source 1
82.
84.
85.
86.
(29,70)
Capacity utilization rate, manufacturing
(M).—
Source 4
(20,64)
Capacity utilization rate, materials
m
ng
(M).—Source
4
(20,64)
Change in money supply Ml (M).-Source 4
(31,71)
Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
(37,75)
966.
Diffusion index of industrial production, 24 indus-
967.
Diffusion index of spot market prices, 13 raw indus-
tries (M).-Sources 1 and 4
(37,75,78)
117
Research Bureau, Inc.
40-82 industries ( M ) . - S o u r c e 1 and Standard &
Poor's Corporation
970.
"
jjg
(37,75)
Diffusion index of expenditures for new plant and
equipment by U.S. nonfarm business, 22 industries
(Q). -Source 1
971.
(38,76)
Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
600 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
972.
(38,76)
Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
Net change in business loans (M).—Sources 1, 4,
and The Federal Reserve Bank of New York
(32,71)
Net change in consumer installment credit (M).—
Source 4
(32,72)
(37,75,79)
Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks,
973.
series may not be reproduced without
written
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and
trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury
bills (M).-Source 4
(34,72)
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without
written
Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).—U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)
permission from the source.)
(38,76)
974.
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).—The
Bond Buyer
(34,73)
Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).—Citibank and U.S. Department of the Treasury
(34,73)
975.
(38,76)
Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufactur-
Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).—
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development,
Federal Housing Administration
(34,73)
This series may not be reproduced without written
1 9 8 2 dollars, structures ( Q ) . - S o u r c e 1
Federal funds rate (M).-Source 4
permission from the source.)
1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
87.
(31,71)
Average prime rate charged by banks (M).—Source
4
(35,73)
(29,69)
Corporate profits after tax with inventory valua-
tries ( Q ) . - T h e Conference Board
Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M).—
Sources 1 and 4
(31,71)
Manufacturers' inventories, materials and supplies
(27,68)
ations in 1982 dollars, 17 manufacturing indus-
968.
tion and capital consumption adjustments in cur-
80.
(31,71)
(15,27,68)
on hand and on order (EOM).-Source 2
(37,75,77)
Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropri-
trial materials (M).—Sources 1, 3, and Commodity
108.
1982 dollars (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(31,71)
(36,74)
durable goods industries (M).—Sources 1 and 2
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in 1982
dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4, and The Federal Reserve
Bank of New York
(15,35,73)
Change in money supply M2 (M).—Source 4
(M).—Source
964. Diffusion index of manufacturers' new orders, 34-35
New plant and equipment expenditures by business
in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(24,67)
102.
(22,65)
76.
78.
(13,28,69)
tural payrolls, 172-186 industries
3
965.
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding in current dollars (M).—Sources 1, 4 and The Federal
74.
99. Change in sensitive materials prices (M).—Sources 1,
Manufacturing and trade inventories in current
dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
73.
(24,66)
98. Percent change in producer prices for sensitive
crude and intermediate materials (M).—Sources 1
and 3
(28,69)
Manufacturing and trade inventories in 1982 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2
72.
95. Ratio, consumer installment credit outstanding to
personal income (M).—Sources 1 and 4
(15,35,73)
Bank rates on short-term business loans (Q).—Source
2
71.
(33,72)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Source 2
(21,64)
business construction expenditures
70.
-
Gross private nonresidential fixed investment in
1982 dollars, producers' durable equipment (Q).—
Source 1
(25,67)
(25,67)
(25,67) 1 1 9 .
(34.72)
ing and trade—about 1,400 businessmen reporting
(Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
(38,76)
113
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES—Continued
976.
Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—
about 600 businessmen reporting (Q) —Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
from the source.)
(38,76)
243.
245
247
977.
978.
Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale t r a d e about 400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission
trom the source.)
(38,76)
Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about
400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,76)
50.
249.
(47,83)
Gross saving (Q).-Source 1
(46,82)
292.
Personal saving (Q).—Source 1
(46,82)
293.
Personal saving rate (Q).-Source 1
(46,83)
Gross private nonresidential fixed investment as a
percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(47,83)
295.
Business saving (Q).—Source 1
(46,82)
298.
Government surplus or deficit ( Q ) . — S o u r c e 1
(46,83)
Gross private residential fixed investment as a
II—B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
(Q).—Source
1
(47,83)
Net exports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q). - S o u r c e 1
(44,82)
Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
Change in business inventories in 1982 dollars (Q) —
Source 1
(26,42,68,81)
252
Exports of goods and services in current dollars
Gross national product in 1982 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(19,39,40,63,80)
2 53
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
Imports of goods and services in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
64.
Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).—Source 1
(30,47,70,83)
255
Net exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
200.
Gross national product in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(40,80)
256
Exports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
213.
Final sales in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
217.
Per capita gross national product in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(40,80)
(40,80)
220.
National income in current dollars
223.
Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source
1
1
257
2 60
(Q).—Source
(45,82)
(40,63)
26L
225.
(40,80)
(40,80)
227.
Per capita disposable personal income in 1982 dol-
230.
Personal consumption expenditures in current dol-
lars (Q).-Sources 1 and 2
lars (Q).-Source 1
231.
Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
Personal consumption expenditures in current dol-
233.
Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dol-
lars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1
lars, durable goods (Q).—Source 1
235.
(41,80)
(41,80)
Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).—Source 1
Personal consumption expenditures in current dol-
237.
Personal consumption expenditures in current dol-
238.
Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dol-
lars, nondurable goods (Q).-Source 1
lars, services (Q).-Source 1
lars, nondurable goods (Q).-Source 1
239.
(41,81)
241.
Gross private domestic investment in 1982 dollars
242.
Gross private domestic fixed investment in current
lars (Q).-Source 1
(Q).-Sourcel
dollars (Q).-Source 1
114
322.
(49,59,84,95)
Consumer price index for all urban consumers,
food (M).-Source 3
330.
331.
(49,84)
Producer price index, all commodities (M).—Source
3
(48,85)
Producer price index, crude materials for further
processing (M).—Source 3
332.
(48.85)
Producer price index, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).—Source 3
333.
(48,86)
Producer price index, capital equipment ( M ) . —
Source 3
(48,86)
334. Producer price index, finished consumer goods
(M).-Source 3
(48,86)
State and local government purchases of goods and
services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
346.
267.
Federal Government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
(43,81)
Federal Government purchases of goods and services in 1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
^68. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Source 1
(47,83)
280.
Compensation of employees (Q).—Source 1
282.
Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments (Q).—Source
1
(45,82)
283
(45,82)
Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and
capital consumption adjustments as a percent of
national income (Q).—Source 1
adjustment (Q).-Source 1
(45,82)
285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—
Source 1
2 87
(42,81)
288.
Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments as a
percent of national income (Q).—Source 1
(47,83)
Net interest (Q).-Source 1
Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
employees, nonfarm business sector
(45,82)
(Q).—Source
3
348.
(49,88)
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
first year changes (Q).-Source 3
349.
(50,88)
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, average
changes over life of contract (Q).-Source 3
358.
(50,88)
Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
370.
(49,87)
Index of real average hourly compensation, all
(49,88)
Index of output per hour, all persons, business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(49,88)
II—C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
37.
Number of persons unemployed (M).—Source 3
(47,83)
Corporate profits before tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments (Q).—
Source 1
(45,82)
commodities
(48,85)
nonfarm business sector (Q).—Source 3
(47,83)
284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption
(42,81)
(42,81)
(M).-Source 3
345.
?86
Gross private domestic investment in current dol-
Consumer price index for all urban consumers
266. State and local government purchases of goods and
services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
(43,81)
(41,81)
240.
320.
Index of real average hourly earnings of production
or nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural payrolls (M).-Source 3
(49,87)
Personal consumption expenditures in 1982 dollars, services (Q).-Source 1
Fixed-weighted price index, gross domestic business product (Q).-Source 1
(48,84)
341.
(41,81)
(41,81)
311.
Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q).—
Source 1
(47,83)
2 65
(47,83)
236.
(48.84)
Index of average hourly earnings of production or
nonsupervisory workers on private nonagricultural
payrolls ( M ) . - S o u r c e 3
(49,87)
(41,80)
232.
Government purchases of goods and services in
1982 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
(Q).-Source 1
340.
2 63
(40,80)
(41,80)
Government purchases of goods and services in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,81)
Implicit price deflator for gross national product
Producer price index, industrial
(M).-Source3
Disposable personal income in 1982 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
Imports of goods and services in 1982 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(44,82)
310.
335.
2 62.
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q) .—
Source 1
Net interest as a percent of national income (Q) —
290.
Change in business inventories in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(42,81)
percent of gross national product
250
289.
Source 1
251.
II—A. National Income and Product
30.
248.
Gross private domestic fixed investment in 1982
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42.81)
(18.51.62.89)
441.
Civilian labor force ( M ) . - S o u r c e 3
(51,89)
(51.89)
442.
Civilian employment ( M ) . - S o u r c e 3
444.
Number unemployed, males 20 years and over
(M).-Source 3
(51.89)
445.
Number unemployed, females 20 years and over
(M).-Source 3
(51.89)
G.P.O.
1986-201-470:80006
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES-Continued
446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of
age (M).-Source3
(51,89)
447. Number unemployed, full-time workers ( M ) . —
Source 3
(51,89)
448. Number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20
years and over (M).—Source 3
(51,89)
452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20
years and over (M).-Source 3
(51,89)
453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexes
16-19 years of age (M)-Source 3
(51,89)
II—D. Government Activities
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)
501. Federal Government receipts (Q).—Source 1
(52,90)
570. Employment, defense products industries (M).—
Source 3; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(55,91)
577. Defense Department military personnel on active
duty (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
578. Defense Department civilian personnel, direct hire employment (EOM).—U.S. Department of Defense, Office
of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller),
Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for
Information Operations and Reports
(55,91)
580. Defense Department net outlays, military functions
and military assistance (M).—U.S. Department of
Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense
(Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(54,91)
(52,90)
604. Exports of domestic agricultural products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source
2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(56,92)
517. Defense Department gross obligations incurred
( M ) . - U . S . Department of Defense, Office of the
(56,92)
Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Direc- 612. General imports (M).—Source 2
torate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal 614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
(M).—Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(56,92)
525. Defense Department prime contract awards for work
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).-Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(56,92)
618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Sourcel
(57,93)
620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1
(57,93)
651. Income on U.S. investment abroad (Q).—Source
1
(57,93)
548. Manufacturers* new orders, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(53,90)
652. Income on foreign investment in the United States
(Q).-Source 1
(57,93)
557. Index of industrial production, defense and space
equipment (M).-Source 4
(54,91)
667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1
559. Manufacturers' inventories, defense products (EOM).
-Source 2
(54,91)
561. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, defense products
(EOM).-Source 2
(54,91)
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
565. National defense purchases as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(55,91)
723. Canada, index of industrial production ( M ) . —
Statistics Canada (Ottawa)
(58,94)
725. West Germany, index of industrial production ( M ) . Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(58,94)
726. France, index of industrial production (M).—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(58,94)
728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(58,94)
511. State and local government receipts (Q).—Source
1
(52,90)
543. Defense Department gross unpaid obligations
outstanding (EOM).-U.S. Department of Defense,
Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), Directorate for Program and Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(53,90)
722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production
(M).—Central Statistical Office (London)
(58,94)
II—E. U.S. International Transactions
602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (M).—
Source 2
(56,92)
performed in the United States (M).-U.S. Depart
ment of Defense, Office of the Assistant Secretary of
Defense (Comptroller), Washington Headquarters
Services, Directorate for Information Operations
and Reports; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(53,90)
721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial
production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(58,94)
727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lstituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(58,94)
510. State and local government surplus or deficit (Q).—
Source 1
(52,90)
512. State and local government expenditures (Q).—
Source 1
(52,90)
320. United States, consumer price index for all urban
consumers (M).-Source 3
(49,59,84,95)
588. Manufacturers' shipments, defense products (M).—
Source 2
(54,91)
502. Federal Government expenditures (Q).—Source
1
47. United States, index of industrial production (M).—
Source 4
(14,20,39,58,63,78,94)
(57,93)
668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under U.S. military grants (Q).—Source 1
(57,93)
669. Imports of goods and services (Q).—Source 1
(57,93)
II—F. International Comparisons
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M).—Standard & Poor's Corporation
(13,28,59,69,96)
732. United Kingdom, consumer price index ( M ) . —
Department of Employment (London); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
733. Canada, consumer price index (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
735. West Germany, consumer price index
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden);
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
ic Analysis
(M).—
percent
Econom(59,95)
736. France, consumer price index (M).—Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris);
percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(59,95)
737. Italy, consumer price index (M).—Istituto Centrale di
Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(59,96)
738. Japan, consumer price index (M).—Bureau of Statistics, Office of the Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent
changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(59,95)
742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-Central
Statistical Office (London)
(59,96)
743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Toronto Stock
Exchange (Toronto)
(59,96)
745. West Germany, index of stock prices ( M ) . —
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)
(59,96)
746. France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)
(59,96)
747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).—Banca d'ltalia
(Rome)
(59,96)
748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).—Bank of Japan
(Tokyo)
(59,96)
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