Full text of Business Conditions Digest : June 1978
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Juanita M. Kreps, Secretary
Courtenay M. Slater, Chief Economist for the Department of Commerce
BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Allan H. Young, Deputy Director
John E. Cremeans, Associate Director for National
Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor
This report is prepared in the Statistical Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Technical staff and their responsibilities for the publication areBarry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and review
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment methods
Betty F. Tunstall—Collection and compilation of basic data.
Telephone (202) 523-0541
The cooperation of various government and private agencies which provide data is gratefully
acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the list of series and sources at the
back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general guidance of a technical committee under
the auspices of the Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards, The committee
consists of the following persons:
Beatrice N. Vaccara, Chairman, U.S. Department of the Treasury
John E. Cremeans, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Joseph W. Duncan, Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards
Lyle E. Gramley, Council of Economic Advisers, Executive Office of the President
J. Cortland Peret, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Julius Shiskin, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
ABOUT THIS REPORT
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST (BCD) provides
a monthly look at many of the economic time
series found most useful by business analysts
and forecasters.
The original BCD, which began publication
in 1961 under the title Business Cycle Developments, emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of business conditions
and prospects. The report's contents were based
largely on the list of leading, roughly coincident,
and lagging indicators maintained by the
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
In 1968, BCD was expanded to increase its
usefulness to analysts using other approaches to
business conditions analysis. Principal additions
to the report were series from the national income and product accounts and series based on
surveys of businessmen's and consumers' anticipations and intentions. The composite indexes were added at that time, and the report's
present title was adopted.
The dominant feature of the current BCD is
the cyclical indicators section, in which each
business cycle indicator is assigned a three-way
timing classification according to its behavior at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns. This section is
supplemented by a section containing other important economic measures. The method of
presentation is explained in the introductory text
which begins on page 1.
Annual subscription price: $40 domestic, $50
foreign. Single copy price: $3.50 domestic, $4.50
foreign. For information concerning foreign airmail delivery, available at an additional charge,
write the Superintendent of Documents (address
Most of the data contained in this report
also are published by their source agencies. A
series finding guide and a complete list of series
titles and sources can be found at the back of the
report.
Cyclical Indicators are economic time series
which have been singled out as leaders, coinciders, or laggers based on their general conformity to cyclical movements in aggregate
economic activity. In this report, cyclical indicators are classified both by economic process
and by their average timing at business cycle
peaks, at business cycle troughs, and at peaks
and troughs combined. These indicators have
been selected primarily on the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but they also have proven
useful in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting short-term fluctuations -in aggregate
economic activity.
Other Economic Measures provide additional information for the evaluation of current business
conditions and prospects. They include selected
components of the national income and product
accounts; measures of prices, wages, and
productivity; measures of the labor force,
employment, and unemployment; economic
data on Federal, State, and local government activities; measures of U.S. international transactions; and selected economic comparisons with
major foreign countries.
follows), enclosing a copy of your address label.
Make checks payable to the Superintendent of
Documents. Send to the U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402.
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
New Features and Changes for This issue
BCII
iii
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Part I. Cyclical Indicators
Part II. Other Important Economic Measures
How To Read Charts
How To Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes
1
1
1
1
4
6
6
7
JUNE 1978
Data Through May
Volume 18r Number 6
PART I.
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND
THEIR COMPONENTS
A1
A2
A3
A4
Composite Indexes
Leading Index Components
Coincident Index Components
Lagging Index Components
Chart
Table
11
13
15
16
59
—
—
-
17
20
22
24
27
29
32
60
62
63
64
67
68
70
37
40
73
75
—
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B7
Employment and Unemployment
Production and Income
Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
Fixed Capital Investment
Inventories and Inventory Investment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit . . .
DIFFUSION INDEXES
AND RATES OF CHANGE
C1
C2
C3
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components
Rates of Change
The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this periodical has
been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through September 1, 1980.
ItCII
PART II.
OTHER IMPORTANT
ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME
AND PRODUCT
AT
A8
GNP and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Government Purchases of Goods and Services
Foreign Trade
National Income and Its Components
Saving
Shares of GNP and National Income
Chart
Table
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
79
79
80
80
81
81
81
82
49
50
83
86
52
88
53
54
89
89
55
56
91
PRICES, WAGES,
AND PRODUCTIVITY
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT,
AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Receipts and Expenditures
Defense Indicators
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Merchandise Trade
Goods and Services Movements
90
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Industrial Production
Consumer Prices
Stock Prices
57
53
53
92
93
94
PART III. APPENDIXES
A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (April 197S issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (April 1978 issue)
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
95
96
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions: 1854 to 1975
F. Specific Peak and Trough Dates for Selected Business Indicators (October 1977 issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series
103
104
109
113
Readers are invited to submit comments and
suggestions concerning this publication.
Address them to Feliks Tamm, Chief, Statistical
Indicators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230
NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE
A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies in
concept, composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result in revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
Changes in this issue are as follows:
changes in placement of
1. The series on U.S. international transactions
(series 618, 620, 622, 651, 652, and 667-669) have been revised to reflect the source agency's annual updating of the
basic statistics. These revisions affect the data for 1976
to date (series 618), 1974 to date (series 620 and 622),
and 1970 to date (all others). For the first time, data
for Income on investments (series 651 and 652) and for Goods
and services (series 667-669) include reinvested earnings of
incorporated foreign affiliates of U.S.direct investors and
of incorporated U.S. affiliates of foreign direct investors.
other series, changes
series in relation to
Further information concerning these revisions may be
obtained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, Balance of Payments Division.
2. Appendix C contains historical data for series 6,
7, 8, 10, 20, 24, 25, 27, 28, 38, 65, 69, 78, 85, 96, 102,
104, 548, and 962.
3. Appendix G contains recovery comparisons for series
3, 4, 12, 29, 77, and 78.
The July issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled
for release on August 3.
iii
in composition of
indexes, etc.
6 BEA PROJECTS
for economic
analysis
BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST A monthly report for analyzing economic fluctuations over a short span of years.
This report brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by
business analysts and forecasters. The dominant feature is the cyclical indicators
section in which approximately 110 business cycle indicators are each assigned a
three-way timing classification according to their cyclical behavior at peaks, at
troughs, and at all turns. This section also contains other valuable aids for the
analysis of business conditions and prospects, such as composite indexes of leading,
coincident, and lagging indicators and various diffusion indexes. A second section
contains other important economic measures such as prices, wages, productivity,
government activities, U.S. international transactions, and international comparisons.
Data are presented in charts and tables. Appendixes provide historical data, series
descriptions, seasonal adjustment factors, and measures of variability. A computer
tape containing data for most of the series is available for purchase.
DEFENSE INDICATORS
A monthly report for analyzing the current
and prospective impact of defense activity on the national economy.
This report brings together the principal time series on defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national economy. These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders, shipments, inventories, expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 60 time series included are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the activities they measure occur in the defense orderproduction-delivery process. Charts and analytical tables facilitate interpretation.
LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH A report for the study of economic
trends over a long span of years, 1860-1970.
This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive,
long-range view of the U.S. economy. It is a basic research document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together under one cover, in
meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical basis for a study of longterm economic trends. A computer tape file of the time series included in the report
is available for purchase.
COMPUTER PROGRAMS FOR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
The source
statements for FORTRAN IV programs used by BE A in its analysis of
time series are available on a single computer tape,
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMS.-Two variants of the Census computer
program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations. They are particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The X-11 variant is used for adjusting monthly data and
the X-11Q for quarterly data. These programs make additive as well as multiplicative
adjustments and compute many summary and analytical measures.
DIFFUSION INDEX PROGRAM.-A computer program for computing diffusion
indexes, cumulated diffusion indexes, and summary measures of the properties of
each index.
SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS
current economic developments.
A
monthly report for analyzing
This report provides a useful combination of current data for more than 2,600
statistical series and significant articles analyzing economic developments. These
data and analyses include such areas as the national income and product accounts,
the balance of payments accounts, plant and equipment expenditures, regional
personal income, and the input-output accounts.
A
BUSINESS STATISTICS
biennial reference volume containing statistical series reported currently in the Survey of Current Business.
This report provides historical data back to 1947 for nearly 2,500 time series. The
series are accompanied by concise descriptions as to their composition, methods of
compilation, comparability, revisions, and availability. Also listed are the names and
addresses of organizations which provide the basic data for the series.
IV
METHOD OF PRESENTATION
This report is organized into two major parts.
Part I, Cyclical Indicators, includes about 150 time
series which have been found to conform well to
broad fluctuations in comprehensive measures of
economic activity. Nearly three-fourths of these are
individual indicators, the rest are related analytical
measures: Composite indexes, diffusion indexes,
and rates of change. Part II, Other Important
Economic Measures, covers over 130 series which
are valuable to business analysts and forecasters
but which do not conform well enough to business
cycles to qualify as cyclical indicators. (There are a
few exceptions: Four series which are included in
part I are also shown in part II to complete the
systematic presentation of certain sets of data,
such as real GNP and unemployment.) The largest
section of part II consists of quarterly series from
the national income and product accounts; other
sections relate to prices, labor force, government
activities, and international transactions and
comparisons.
The two parts are further divided into sections
(see table of contents), and each of these sections
is described briefly in this introduction. Data are
shown both in charts and in tables. Most charts
begin with 1955, but those for the composite
indexes and their components (part I, section A)
begin with 1948, and a few charts use a two-panel
format which covers only the period since 1968.
Except for section F in part II, charts contain
shading which indicates periods of recession in
general business activity. The tables contain data
for only the last few years. The historical data for
the various time series are contained in the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
In addition to the charts and tables described
above, each issue contains a summary table which
shows the current behavior of many of the series.
Appendixes present seasonal adjustment factors,
measures of variability, specific cycle turning
dates, cyclical comparison charts, and other
information of analytical interest. An index appears
at the back of each issue. It should be noted that
the series numbers used are for identification
purposes only and do not reflect precise
relationships or order. However, all series
considered as cyclical indicators are numbered in
the range 1 to 199.
Seasonal Adjustments
Reference Turning Dates
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations
are often necessary to bring out the underlying
trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for
the effects of repetitive intrayear variations
resulting primarily from normal differences in
weather conditions and from various institutional
arrangements. Variations attributable to holidays
are usually accounted for by the seasonal
adjustment process; however, a separate holiday
adjustment is occasionally required for holidays
with variable dates, such as Easter. An additional
adjustment is sometimes necessary for series
which contain considerable variation due to the
number of working or trading days in each month.
As used in this report, the term "seasonal
adjustment" includes trading-day and holiday
adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in
seasonally adjusted form and, in most cases, these
are the official figures released by the source
agencies. However, for the special purposes of this
report, a number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown here on a
seasonally adjusted basis.
The historical business cycle turning dates used
in this report are those designated by the National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (NBER), They
mark the approximate dates when, according to
NBER, aggregate economic activity reached its
cyclical high or low levels. As a matter of general
practice, neither new reference turning dates nor
the shading for recessions will be entered on the
charts until after both the new reference peak and
the new reference trough bounding the shaded area
have been designated.
The historical reference turning dates are subject
to periodic review by NBER and on occasion are
changed as a result of revisions in important
economic time series. The dates shown in this publication for the 1948-1970 time period are those
determined by a 1974 review. The turning dates for
the 1973-1975 period are detailed in NBER's 1976
Annual Report.
MCD Moving Averages
Part I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Business cycles have been defined as sequences
of expansion and contraction in various economic
processes that show up as major fluctuations in agMonth-to-month changes in a series are often gregate economic activity—that is, in comdominated by erratic movements. MCD (months for prehensive measures of production, employment,
cyclical dominance) is an estimate of the appro- income, and trade. While recurrent and pervasive,
priate span over which to observe cyclical business cycles of historical experience have been
movements in a monthly series. (See appendix A.) definitely nonperiodic and have varied greatly in
It is the smallest span of months for which the duration and intensity, reflecting changes in
average change in the cyclical factor is greater than economic systems, conditions, policies, and
that in the irregular factor. The more erratic a outside disturbances.
series is, the larger the MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1
One of the techniques developed in business
for the smoothest series and 6 for the most erratic. cycle research and widely used as a tool for analyzMCD moving averages (that is, moving averages of ing current economic conditions and prospects is
the period equal to MCD) tend to have about the the cyclical indicators approach. This approach
same degree of smoothness for all series. Thus, a identifies certain economic time series as tending
5-term moving average of a series with an MCD of 5 to lead, coincide with or lag behind the broad
will show its cyclical movements about as clearly movements in aggregate economic activity. Such
as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an indicators have been selected and analyzed by
NBER in a series of studies published between
MCD of 1.
The charts in this report generally include 1938 and 1967. During the 1972-75 period, a new
centered MCD moving averages for those series comprehensive review of cyclical indicators was
with an MCD greater than 4. The seasonally carried out by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
adjusted data are also plotted to indicate their (BEA) with the cooperation of the NBER research
variation about the moving averages and to provide staff. The present format and content of part I of
observations for the most recent months.
BCD are based on the results of that study.
Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
A. Timing at Business Cycle Peaks
\^
Economic
N^rocess
Cyclical
Timing
>v
N.
LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(62 series)
ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)
LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(18 series)
TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
(U)
(8 series)
1.
EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)
II.
PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)
Ml.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)
IV.
FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)
V.
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
VI.
PRICES f COSTS f
AND PROFITS
(17 series)
VII.
MONEY
AND CREDIT
(26 series)
Marginal
employment
adjustments
(6 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(l series)
Comprehensive
unemployment
(3 series)
Capacity
utilization
(2 series)
New and
unfilled orders
and deliveries
(6 series)
Consumption
(2 series)
Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
Investment
commitments
(5 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)
Inventory
investment
(4 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(1 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profits and
profit
margins
(7 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)
Money flows
(3 series)
Real money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)
Bank reserves
(2 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
output and
real income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
(4 series)
Consumption
and trade
(4 series)
Backlog of
investment
commitments
(1 series)
Business
investment
expenditures
(5 series)
Duration of
unemployment
(2 series)
Business
investment
expenditures
(1 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(3 series)
Velocity of
money
(2 series)
Interest rates
(2 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(4 series)
Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)
interest rates
(4 series)
Outstanding
debt
(3 series)
Commodity
prices
(1 series)
Profit share
(1 series)
Interest rates
(1 series)
Trade
(1 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(1 series)
11.
PRODUCTION
AND
INCOME
(10 series)
III.
CONSUMPTION,
TRADE,
ORDERS, AND
DELIVERIES
(13 series)
IV.
FIXED
CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(18 series)
V.
INVENTORIES
AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)
VI.
PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(17 series)
VII.
MONEY
ANDCREDIT
(26 series)
Industrial
production
(1 series)
New and unfilled
orders and
deliveries
(5 series)
Consumption
and trade
(4 series)
Formation of
business
enterprises
(2 series)
Business
investment
commitments
(4 series)
Residential
construction
(3 series)
Inventory
Investment
(4 series)
Stock prices
(1 series)
Commodity
prices
(2 series)
Profits and
profit margins
(6 series)
Cash flows
(2 series)
Money flows
(2 series)
Real money
supply
(2 series)
Credit flows
(4 series)
Credit
difficulties
(2 series)
Consumption
and trade
(3 series)
Business
Investment
commitments
(1 series)
Profits
(2 series)
Money flow
(1 series)
Velocity of
money
(1 series)
Unfilled orders
(1 series)
Business
Investment
commitments
(2 series)
Business
investment
expenditures
(6 series)
Unit labor costs
and labor share
(4 series)
Velocity of
money
(1 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
Interest rates
(8 series)
Outstanding debt
(3 series)
B. Timing at Business Cycle Troughs
^v Economic
\Process
x^
Cyclical^
Timing
N.
LEADING (L)
INDICATORS
(47 series)
ROUGHLY
COINCIDENT(C)
INDICATORS
(23 series)
LAGGING (Lg)
INDICATORS
(40 series)
TIMING
UNCLASSIFIED
fU)
(1 series)
EMPLOYMENT
AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(18 series)
Marginal
employment
adjustments
(3 series)
Marginal
employment
adjustments
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(4 series)
Marginal
employment
adjustments
(1 series)
Job vacancies
(2 series)
Comprehensive
employment
(1 series)
Comprehensive
and duration
of
unemployment
(5 series)
Comprehensive
output and
real income
(4 series)
Industrial
production
{3 series)
Capacity
utilization
(2 series)
Inventories on
hand and on
order
(5 series)
Bank reserves
(1 series)
lection A. Composite Indexes and
'heir Components
All cyclical indicators have been evaluated acording to six major characteristics: Economic
ignificance, statistical adequacy, consistency of
iming at business cycle peaks and troughs, confornity to business expansions and contractions,
jnoothness, and prompt availability (currency). A
ormal, detailed weighting scheme was developed
ind used to assess each series by all of the above
;riteria. (See articles in the May and November
.975 issues of BCD.) The resulting scores relate
o the cyclical behavior of the series during the
)eriod 1947-70. This analysis produced a new list
)f indicators classified by economic process and
:ypical timing at business cycle peaks and troughs.
;See tables on page2 and text below relating to secJon B.)
This information, particularly the scores relating
to consistency of timing, served as a basis for the
selection of series to be included in the composite
indexes. The indexes incorporate the best-scoring
series from many different economic-process
groups and combine those with similar timing
behavior, using their overall performance scores as
weights. Because they use series of historically
tested usefulness and given timing characteristics
(for example, leading at both peaks and troughs),
with diversified economic coverage and a minimum
of duplication, composite indexes give more
reliable signals over time than do any of the
individual indicators. Furthermore, much of the
independent measurement error and other "noise"
in the included series are smoothed out in the
index as a whole. The indexes include only monthly
series that are acceptable in terms of relatively
prompt availability and reasonable accuracy.
The main composite indexes are distinguished by
their cyclical timing. Thus, there is an index of
leading indicators, series which historically reached
their cyclical peaks and troughs earlier than the
corresponding business cycle turns. There is an
index of roughly coincident indicators, consisting
of series which historically reached their turning
points at about the same time as the general
economy, and an index of Sagging indicators, which
includes series that typically reached their peaks
and troughs later than the corresponding business
cycle turns.
The leading index contains series with long as
well as short leads, but each series leads on the
average over time and shows a frequency of leads
at the individual turns exceeding that attributable
to chance, given the historical distribution of
cyclical timing. (An analogous statement applies to
the components of the lagging index.) Since 1948,
leads were generally more frequent and longer at
peaks than at troughs of business cycles, while lags
were generally more frequent and longer at troughs
than at peaks. The adopted system of scoring and
classifying the indicators takes into account these
w e l l - e s t a b l i s h e d d i f f e r e n c e s in timing.
Consequently, rough coincidences include short
leads (-) and lags ( + ) as well as exact
coincidences (0). (For monthly series, the range is
from -3 through +1 at peaks and from -1 through
+3 at troughs, where minus denotes leads and
plus denotes Sags in months.)
For purposes of constructing a composite index,
each component series is standardized: The monthto-month percent changes in a given series are
divided by the long-run average (without regard to
sign) of those changes. Thus, the more volatile
series are prevented from dominating the index.
The coincident index is calculated so that its longterm trend (since 1948) equals the average of the
trends of its four components. This trend, which is
similar to that of GNP in constant dollars, can be
viewed as a linear approximation to the secular
movement (at an average growth rate) in aggregate
economic activity. The indexes of leading and lagging indicators have been adjusted so that both
their trends and their average month-to-month
percent changes (without regard to sign) are approximately equal to those of the coincident index.
(For a more detailed description of the method of
constructing the composite indexes, see the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.)
In addition to these principal composite indexes,
differentiated according to cyclical timing, there
are five indexes based on leading indicators which
have been grouped by economic process. Taken
together, these additional indexes include all 12
component series of the overall leading index, plus
a few related series. Also shown in this section is
the ratio of the index of roughly coincident
indicators to the index of lagging indicators, a
series known to have a useful pattern of early
cyclical timing. Numbers entered on the charts of
the composite indexes show the length, in months,
of leads (-) and lags (+) at each of the reference
turning dates covered,
The next set of data consists of series included
in the principal composite indexes. These are the
12 components of the leading index, the 4
components of the coincident index, and the 6
components of the lagging index. Following the title
of each series, its typical timing is identified by
three letter symbols in a small box. The first of
these letters refers to the timing of the given
indicator at business cycle peaks, the second to its
timing at business cycle troughs, and the third to
its timing at all turns, i.e., at peaks and troughs
combined, "L" denotes a tendency to lead, "C" a
tendency to roughly coincide with the business
cycle turns (as represented by the NBERdesignated reference dates), and "Lg" a tendency
to lag. Since these series have been selected for the
consistency of their timing at both peaks and
troughs, all components of the leading index are
denoted "L,L,L," all components of the coincident
index UC,C,C," and all components of the lagging
index "Lg,Lg,Lg." It should be remembered that
these classifications are based on limited evidence,
namely the performance of the indicators during
the business cycles of the 1948-70 period, which
included five peaks and five troughs. While the
timing classifications are expected to agree with
the patterns prevailing in the near future, they will
not necessarily hold invariably in every instance.
The timing of the series in the post-1970 period
can be determined by inspection of the charts
where the 1973-75 recession is shaded according
to the dates of the NBER reference cycle
chronology.
Section B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
This section covers 111 individual time series,
including the 22 indicators used in the
construction of the composite indexes. The peak
and trough timing classifications are shown on the
charts in the same manner as described above, but
this section includes series with different timing at
peaks and at troughs, as well as series where the
timing is not sufficiently consistent to be classified
as either L,C, or Lg according to the probabilistic
measures and scoring criteria adopted. Such series
are labeled U, i.e., unclassified as to timing at
turning points of the given type. Eight series are
unclassified at peaks, one series at troughs, and 19
series at all turns (of the 19, 15 have definite but
different timing at peaks and at troughs). No series
that is classified as U both at peaks and at troughs
is included in the list of cyclical indicators.
The classification scheme which groups the
indicators of this section by economic process and
cyclical timing is summarized in the two
tabulations on page 2. Cross-classification A is
based on the observed behavior of the series at five
business cycle peaks (November '48, July '53,
August '57, April '60, and December '69); crossclassification B, on their behavior at five business
cycle troughs (October '49, May '54, April '58,
February '61, and November 70). Each tabulation
distinguishes seven major economic processes and
four types of cyclical timing. The titles in the cells
identify subgroups of the given economic process
with the given timing characteristic. The number of
series in each such group is given in parentheses
following the title. Complete information on how
individual indicators are classified by timing at
peaks, troughs, and all turns, along with selected
measures and scores, is provided in the 1977
Handbook of Cyclical Indicators.
Section C. Diffusion Indexes and Rates of Change
Many series in this report are aggregates
compiled from numerous components. How the
individual components of an aggregate move over a
given timespan is summarized by a diffusion index
which indicates the percentage of components that
are rising (with half of the unchanged components
considered rising). Cyclical changes in these
diffusion indexes tend to lead those of the
corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes
are highly erratic, they are computed from changes
measured over 6- or 9-month (or 3- or 4-quarter)
spans, as well as 1-month (or 1-quarter) spans.
Longer spans help to highlight the trends underlying the shorter-term fluctuations. Diffusion indexes
are shown for the component series included in
each of the three composite indexes and for the
components of some of the aggregate series shown
in section B.
Diffusion measures can be derived not only from
actual data but also from surveys of anticipations
or intentions. Indexes based on responses of
business executives about their plans and
expectations for several operating variables are
presented, along with the corresponding indexes
based on actual data, as the last set of diffusion
series.
This section also records rates of change for the
three composite indexes (leading, coincident, and
lagging) and for four indicators of aggregate
economic activity: GNP in constant dollars
(quarterly), industrial production, employee hours
in nonagricultural establishments, and personal
income less transfers in constant dollars. Rates of
change are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or
for 1-quarter spans.
Although movements in diffusion indexes and in
rates of change for the same aggregates are
generally positively correlated, these two measures
present information about two related but distinct
aspects of economic change. Diffusion indexes
measure the prevailing direction or scope of
change, while rates of change measure the degree
as well as the overall direction. As is the case for
diffusion indexes, cyclical movements in the rates
of change tend to lead those of the corresponding
indexes or aggregates, and thus, they tend to lead
at the business cycle turns as well.
Part II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
. MEASURES
This part is divided into six sections which cover
a wide range of quarterly and monthly time series
measuring various aspects of economic activity.
Some of these series are very comprehensive,
pertaining to the U.S. economy as a whole, others
have to do with particular sectors or markets, and
still others relate to U.S. international transactions
or to selected foreign countries. The represented
variables include incomes, outputs, and
expenditures; prices, earnings^ and productivity;
labor resources; government receipts, obligations,
and purchases; exports and imports; and selected
indicators for a few key foreign countries.
Section A. National Income and Product
Personal consumption expenditures (A2) is
goods and services purchased by individuals,
operating expenses of nonprofit institutions, and
the value of food, fuel, clothing, rent of dwellings,
and financial services received in kind by individuals. Net purchases of used goods are also included.
Gross private domestic investment (A3) is fixed
capital goods purchased by private business and
nonprofit institutions and the value of the change
in the physical volume of inventories held by
private business. The former include all private
purchases of dwellings, whether purchased for
tenant or owner occupancy. Net purchases of used
goods are also included.
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by BEA, summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the personal, business,
Government purchases of goods and services
foreign, and government sectors of the economy. (A4) is the compensation of government employees
Section Al shows the gross national product, and purchases from business and from abroad. It
final sales, and personal and disposable personal excludes transfer payments, interest paid by
income. The four major components of the gross government, and subsidies. It includes gross
national p r o d u c t — p e r s o n a l c o n s u m p t i o n investment by government enterprises but excludes
expenditures, gross private domestic investment, their current outlays. It includes net purchases of
government purchases of goods and services, and used goods and excludes sales and purchases of
net exports of goods and services—are presented in land and financial assets.
sections A2 through A5. Most of the series in
section A are presented in current as well as
Net exports of goods and services (A5) is exports
constant dollars. There are also a few per capita
series. The national income and product accounts, less imports of goods and services. Exports are part
briefly defined below, are described more fully in of the 'national production; imports are not, but are
the Survey of Current Business, Part I, included in the components of GNP and are
therefore deducted. More detail on U.S.
January 1976.
international transactions is provided in section E.
Gross national product (GNP) is the market
value of final goods and services produced by the
labor and property supplied by residents of the
United States, before deduction of allowances for
the consumption of fixed capital goods. It is the
most comprehensive measure of aggregate
economic output. Final sales is GNP less change in
business inventories.
National income (A6) is the incomes that
originate in the production of goods and services
attributable to labor and property supplied by
residents of the United States. Thus, it measures
the factor costs of the goods and services produced. It consists of the compensation of
employees, propraetors' income, rental income of
persons, corporate profits, and net interest.
Personal income is the income received by
persons (individuals, owners of unincorporated
businesses, nonprofit institutions, private trust
funds, and private noninsured welfare funds) from
all sources. It is the sum of wage and salary
disbursements, other labor income, proprietors'
income, rental income of persons, dividends,
personal interest income, and transfer payments,
less personal contributions for social insurance.
Saving (A7) is the difference between income
and expenditures during an accounting period.
Total gross saving includes personal saving,
business saving (mainly undistributed corporate
profits and capital consumption allowances), and
government surplus or deficit.
Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving. It consists
of personal income less personal taxes and nontax
payments to government.
Shares of GNP and national income (A8).»The
major e x p e n d i t u r e c o m p o n e n t s of GNP
(consumption, investment, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of GNP, and the major income
components of national income (compensation of
employees, corporate profits, etc.) are expressed as
percentages of national income.
Section 8. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
The important data on price movements include
the monthly consumer and wholesale price indexes
and their major components. Based largely on
these series are the quarterly price indexes from
the national income and product accounts, notably
the GNP implicit price deflator (with weights
reflecting the changing proportions of different
expenditure categories in GNP) and the fixedweighted price index for the gross business product. Data on both levels and percent changes are
presented for the period since 1968.
The group of series on wages and productivity
consists of data on average hourly earnings and
average hourly compensation (including earnings
and other benefits) in current and constant dollars,
output per hour of work in the business sector, and
rates of change for most of these measures.
The number of unemployed is subdivided into
selected categories defined by sex, age, and class
of worker. Also included are data on participation
rates for a few principal segments of the labor
force.
Section F. International Comparisons
Section D. Government Activities
Receipts, expenditures, and their balance
(surplus or deficit) are shown quarterly on two
levels: (1) Federal Government and (2) State and
local government. Defense series relating to obligations, contracts, and orders (monthly) and
purchases (quarterly) are also shown, (For a more
comprehensive picture of defense activities, see
Defense Indicators, a monthly BEA
publication.)
Section C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
Section E. U.S. International Transactions
This section contains measures of the civilian
labor force and its major components: Total
numbers of employed and unemployed persons.
This group includes monthly series on exports
(excluding military aid) and general imports, plus a
few selected components of these aggregates. Also
shown are the balances between receipts and
expenditures for goods and services, merchandise,
and investment income.
This section is designed to facilitate a quick
review of basic economic conditions in six of the
nations with which we have important trade
relationships. The U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from these charts. Data on industrial
production, consumer prices, and stock prices for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West Germany, Japan, and Italy are compared with the corresponding U.S. series. Also included is an industrial production index for the European
countries in the Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD). The industrial production series provide cyclically sensitive output measures for large parts of the
economies covered. Changes in consumer price indexes (plotted for the period since 1968) provide
important measures of the rates of inflation in the
major industrialized countries. Stock prices (also
shown beginning in 1968) tend to be significant as
leading indicators.
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Peak (P) of cycle indicates
end of expansion and beginning of recession (shaded
area) as designated by NBER.
Basic Data
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
plotted. ("9" - September)
Solid line indicates monthly
data, (Data may be actual
monthly figures or moving
averages,)
Dotted line indicates anticipated data.
Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where
a moving average is plotted,
Roman
Diffusion Indexes
Solid line indicates monthly
data over 6- or 9-month
spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
indicates
Various scales are used to
highlight the patterns of the
individual series. "Scale A"
is an arithmetic scale, ''scale
L-1" is a logarithmic scale
with 1 cycle in a given distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with two cycles
in that distance, etc.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are
used in computing the indexes.
Broken line with plotting
points indicates quarterly
data over 1-quarter spans.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter for which data
are used in computing the indexes.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over
various spans.
Diffusion indexes and rates
of change are centered within
the spans they cover.
number
latest quarter for which data
are plotted, ("IV" = fourth
quarter)
Solid line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data.
Parallel lines indicates a break
in continuity (data not available, extreme value, etc.).
Trough (T) of cycle indicates
end of recession and beginning of expansion as designated by NBER.
Rates of Change
Solid line indicates percent
changes over 3- or 6-month
spans.
Dotted line indicates anticipated quarterly data over
various spans.
Arabic number indicates latest
month used in computing
the changes.
Broken line indicates percent
changes over 1-month spans.
Broken line with plotting
points indicates
percent
changes over 1-quarter spans.
Solid line with plotting points
indicates percent changes over
3-or 4-quarter spans.
Roman number indicates
latest quarter used in computing the changes.
HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE at
the back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically
according to subject matter and key words and phrases of the
series titles, or-
2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES at the back of
the report where series are listed numerically according to
series numbers within each of the report's sections.
1
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data'
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
Average
1976
1977
3dQ
4th Q
IstQ
1977
1977
1978
1978
Apr.
1978
Mar.
Apr,
May
to
1978
Apr.
1978
to
May
30Q
to
4th Q
4th Q
to
1st Q
1978
1977
1978
Series number
Timing
classification3
Series title
I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A. Composite indexes
91 0. Twelve leading indicators
920. Four coincident indicators
930 Six lagging indicators
...
c,c,c
1967=100 ..
do. ...
do
124.7
122.3
120.7
L,L,L
L,L,L
L,l,L
L.L.L
L,L,L
do.
do.
do.
do.
do.
96.2
96.9
96.2
97.6
97.3
98.3
106.7
102.0
108.1
107.9
111.6
102.8
107.8
112.2
112.1
102.7
109.3
112.6
113.9
103.0
106.8
115.2
113.5
104.6
102.4
112.3
113.2
105.2
101.8
110.7
Hours
do. ...
Percent
Thousands. .
Percent
do. ...
40.0
40.3
40.3
40.5
40.0
40.6
40.7
40.3
3.1
3.9
384
1.3
1.7
3.4
4.0
371
1.1
1.8
3.3
3.8
383
1.3
1.8
3.5
4.1
351
1.0
1.9
3.7
4.0
340
0.9
2.0
3.7
4.0
320
0.9
2.1
3.6
4.2
330
0.9
2.3
3.5
4.1
328
1.0
2.1
Ratio
1967-100...
0.390
95
0.517
118
0.535
121
0.608
134
0.674
139
0.683
141
0.726
146
0.697
144
A.r.,bil.hrs..
Thousands. .
do. ...
do. ...
151.48
84,188
79,443
23,332
156.53
87,302
82,142
24,229
157.08
87,613
82,548
24,359
158.58
88,761
83,192
24,497
159.27
89,748
84,107
24,757
161.20
89,956
84,555
24,945
162.73
90,526
85,170
25,331
162.17
90,877
85,345
25,382
Percent
56.06
57.11
57.16
57.71
58.11
58.18
58.44
58.56
Thousands . .
Percent
do. . . .
Weeks
Percent
7,288
7.7
4.5
6,855
7.0
3.9
6,736
6.9
3.9
6,554
6.6
3.8
6,155
6.2
3.5
6,148
6.2
3.4
5,983
6.0
3.1
6,149
6.1
3.0
15.8
14.3
13.9
13.8
12.6
12.3
12.3
12.1
L,L,L
....
Leading Indicator Subgroups:
913. Marginal employment adjustments
914. Capital investment commitments
915. Inventory investment and purchasing
916 Profitability
917, Money and financial flows
;
...
...
.. .
.. .
...
130.8
130.2
126.7
131.0
130.8
128.1
134.2
133.4
132.0
134.3
134.2
137.2
134.7
135.9
138.8
136.1
138.0
139.4
135.9
138.4
141.5
1.0
1.5
0.4
-0.1
98.6
97.8
113.3
105.3
105.3
111.8
0.3
0.1
0.4
2.0
1.1
-0.8
113.3
105.6
103.8
111.9
0.3
1.5
0.0
-0.3
1.4
2.4
2.0
3.0
1.5
1.6
0.3
-2.3
-0.1
2.3
-1.0
-0.1
-0.1
0.5
0.2
0.3
8.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.6
3,9
-0.3
-0.4
1.6
-4.1
-2.5
91
92
93
91
91
91
91
91
B. Cyclical Indicators by Economic Process
61. Employment and Unemployment
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
21. Avg. weekly overtime, prod, workers, mfg,2 ..
2. Accession rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2
5. Avg. weekly initial claims (inverted 4 )
*3. Layoff rate, per 100 employ., mfg. (inv.4)2 ..
4. Quit rate, per 100 employees, mfg.2
UL.L
L,C,L
L,L,L
L,C,L
L,L,L
L,Lg,U
Job Vacancies:
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to persons
unemployed2
46. Help-wanted advertising
L,Lg,U
Ug,U
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Employee hours in nonagri. establishments . . . u,c,c
42. Persons engaged in nonagri. activities
u.c.c
*41 . Employees on nonagri. payrolls
c,c,c
40, Employees in mfg., mining, construction
L,C,U
90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age2
U,Lg,U
Comprehensive Unemployment:
37 Total unemployed (inverted4)
L,Lg,U
43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted 4 ) 2
L,Lg,U
4 2
45. Avg. weekly insured unemployrate (inv. ) . . L,Lg,U
*91 . Avg. duration of unemployment (inverted4) . . Lg,Lg,Lg
44. Unemploy. rate, 15 weeksand over (inv.4)2 ,. Lg,lg,Lg
0.2
-0.1
0.2
-3.1
0.0
0.2
0.9
0.6
0.7
1.5
0.26
1.4
1274.7 1 3 3 7 . 3 1 3 4 7 . 4 1360.2 1360.3
1033.1 1093.4 1095.3 1121.0 1123.7 1129.2 1135.3 1136.4
893.3
972.3
975.7
988.8
946.1
947.8
981.5
989.9
0.5
0.7
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
1.4
-0.1
-0.2
0.043 -0.029
-1.4
3.5
2.7
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.1
2.5
0.6
-0.3
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.12
0.073
10.7
1.0
1.3
0.8
0.6
0.55
-1.2
0.2
2
-0.1
3.1
0.1
0.1
0.066
3.7
61
4(
0.4
1.1
1.1
1.1
4t
4;
4
4(
9
0.40
0.1
1.6
0.0
2.7
0.3
0.1
0.7
0.1
6.1
0.4
0.3
8.7
0.2
3
4
4
9
4
0.1
0.1
1.0
2.3
2.6
0.0
0.2
0.3
5
5
5
1.5
0.8
5
0.2
4
7
7
4
-2.8
-0.1
82. Production and Income
Comprehensive Output and Income:
50 GNP in 1972 dollars
52 Personal income in 1972 dollars
. ..
*51. Pers. income less transfer pay., 1972 dollars ..
53. Wages and salaries in mining, mfg., and construction, 1972 dollars
Industrial Production:
*47 Industrial production total
73 Industrial production durable mfrs
74. Industrial production, nondurable mfrs
49. Value of goods output, 1972 dollars
Capacity Utilization:
82 Capacity utilization rate mfg FRB2
83. Capacity utilization rate, mfg., BEA 2
84. Capacity utilization rate, materials, FRB2
c,c,c
c,c,c
c,c,c
A.r.,bil.dol.
do. ...
do. ...
c,c,c
,. ..do.
221.8
234.0
235.2
238.7
240.7
244.3
248.4
247.9
1.7
c,c,c
c,c,c
1967=100...
C.L.L j
do. . . .
A.r.,bi!.dol.
129.8
121.7
140.9
580.1
137.1
129.5
148.1
613.1
138.4
131.5
149.2
617.0
139.3
132.8
150.2
624.4
139.6
132.3
150.6
616.6
140.9
134.4
151.5
142.9
136.4
152.6
143.7
137.2
153.2
1.4
1.5
0.7
Percent
do. . , .
do. ...
82.4
83.0
82.9
L,C(U
80.4
81.9
82.3
82.2
81.7
L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L
L,Lg,U
L,L,L
Bil.dol
do. ...
do. . . .
do. . , ,
Bit. do!., EOF
Percent
50.97
35.14
32.56
59.78
38.48
35.27
58.67
37.46
35.05
64.18
40.22
35.83
66.35
40.62
36.77
69.02
41.98
37.53
70.03
42.16
38.59
69.47
41.58
37.47
0.30
1.53
0.20
3.29
3.84
4.56
3.54
3.90
c,c,c
Bil.dol
do. . , .
1967=100...
Mil. dol
do
A.r., bit. dol,
1 Q 1966=100
200.25
133.47
136.2
53,542
39,813
1967=100...
Number. . . .
133.4
127.4
117.6
134.0
128.9
132.6
131.8
31,244 36,509 37,695 38,987 37,801 37,602 38,498
c,c,c
LC.U
.do.
80.2
81
83
82
82
-0.2
0.6
0.6
0.4
82.1
0.7
1.0
0.7
1.2
-0.1
84
-0.4
0.3
-1.2
-0.8
0
-0.1
2
-0.5
8
8
8
83. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and
Deliveries
Orders and Deliveries:
6. New orders, durable goods
7. New orders, durable goods, 1972 dollars
*8. New orders, cons, goods and mils., 1972 dot. ,
25. Chg. in unfilled orders, durable goods 2
96. Mfrs.' unfilled orders, durable goods5
*32 Vendor performance2 (§)
Consumption and Trade:
56 Manufacturing and trade sales
*57. Manufacturing and trade sales, 1972 dollars ..
75. Industrial production, consumer goods
54 Sales of retail stores
59 Sales of retail stores 1972 dollars
55. Personal consumption expend., autos
58 Index of consumer sentiment ©
C,C,C
C,L,C
C,L,U
ULU
l,C,C
L,L,L
1 6 6 . 4 4 184.83 174.97 1 8 4 . 8 3 1 9 6 . 3 6 1 9 6 . 3 6 199.90 2 0 3 . 7 9
55
58
54
54
62
67
64
64
55.0
85.4
223.60
141.17
143.4
58,924
41,604
63.9
86.8
223.68
141.04
145.0
58,862
41,187
62.3
87.6
232.42
144.31
145.3
61,473
42,591
63.2
83.1
237.15
144.00
143.9
61,402
41,616
62.9
82.3
242.84
146.94
146.0
62,690
42,215
78.8
NA
250.65
NA
149.52
147.3
147.3
63,878 63,775
42,642 42,235
81.6
82.9
1.5
0.4
2.8
-1.02
1.8
-3
3.2
1.8
0.9
1.9
1.0
-0.8
-1.4
-2.9
0.36
9.4
7.4
2.2
3.09
1.9
0
5.6
-4
NA
NA
0.0
3.9
2.3
0.2
4.4
3.4
1.4
-0.2
-1.0
3.6
1.6
0.6
2.4
NA
NA
-5.1
3.4
1.0
2.6
0.55
6.2
8
2.0
-0.2
-1.0
-0.1
-2.3
-0.5
-1.0
2
9
3
5
5
7
5
5
5
5
84. Fixed Capital Investment
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12 Net business formation
13. New business incoroorations
! L,L,L
LL.L
NA
NA
3.5
3.4
0.4
-3.0
1
1
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Serin title
Timing
classification3
Percent change
Average
1976
1977
19?7
May
te
1978
Apr,
1978
to
May
3dQ
to
4th Q
1978
1977
Mar,
4th Q
1st Q
197?
19?8
Mar.
1978
Apr.
1978
Apr.
5
4lhQ
to
IstQ
1978
Series numt
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
t. CYCLICAL INDICATORS=Con.
B4. Fixed Capital Investment-Con.
Business Investment Commitments:
10. Contracts and orders, plant and equipment . . .
*2Q. Contr, and orders, plant and equip.,
1972 dol
24, New orders, cap. goods Indus., nondefensa . . ,
27. New orders, capital ggods industries, nondefense, 1872 dollars
9, Construction contracts, commercial and industrial buildings, floor space
1 1. Mew capita) appropriations, mfg. . „
87, Backlog of capital appropriations, infg.s
Business Investment Expenditures:
81. Business expend., new plant and equipment . .
09. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures — ,
70 Industrial production business equip .
86, Nonresid. fixed investment, total, 1972 dol. . .
Residential Construction Commitments and
Investment:
20. New private housing units started, tola! .....
*29, New building permits, private housing
89. Fixed investment, residential, 1972 riol
Bil. dol
15.24
18.22
18.3
19.12
21.35
20.86
19.16
21.28
-8.1
11.1
LI L
l,L,L
do. . . .
do. ...
10.80
12.48
12.16
15.20
12.1
13.58
17.30
13.29
17.51
12.22
17.41
13,53
17.8Q
-8.1
-0.6
10.7
14.86
12.42
16.39
L,L,L
do. ...
8.89
9.89
10.70
11.07
11.22
11.15
11.39
-0.6
68.57
17.20
57.52
74.28
17.82
61.99
71.94
76.71
88.41
L.L.L
L,C,U Mil. sq. ft. . .
U,Lg,U Bil. dol
C.Lg.Lg Bil. dol,, HOP
51.43
12.45
47.53
10.20
62.96
16.14
57.52
65.7
17.69
54.20
do. . . .
C.Lq.Lg
C,Lg,U 1987-100...
C,Lg,C A.r..bil.dol.
171.23 195.51 1 9 9 . 9 4 2 0 6 , 4 3 211.85 218.65 2 2 6 . 3 6
136.3
149.2
151.5
153.4
154.7
157.4
159.0
116.8
126.8
127.6 128.9
130.2
1,538
111.8
47.7
1,987
145.3
2,041
147.7
2,146
154.6
56.9
57.5
59.9
1,721
135.2
2,047
141.9
2, 181
149.9
3.5
1.0
2,Q?5
137.6
6.5
5.6
NA
0.6
-4.9
-8.2
59.3
1G
2Q
24
8.2
3.5
27
4.2
8.3
3.6
7.8
9
11
$1
4.4
61
2.6
0.8
1.0
69
76
86
-19.8
-12.5
28
29
89
-1.6
NA
159.9
11.7
9.3
5.6
6.1
120.49 135.80 140.38 138.11 1 4 4 , 2 5
A.r..thous. ,
1967=100...
A.r..bil.dol.
2.2
15.3
2.1
10.3
-2.8
C.Lg.Lg A.r.,bil.dol.
L,L,L
U,L
L,L,L
6.6
2.2
4.1
3. a
1.3
1.0
5.1
4.7
4.2
-1.0
Ba. Inventories and Inventory Irwestrnent
Inventory Investment:
30. Chg. in business inventories, 1972 dol.2
*3B. Change in inventories on hand and on order,
1972 dollars (smoothed6)2
31. Chg. in book value, mfg. and trade invent.3 . .
38. Chg, in nitl. stocks on hand and on order2 . . .
Inventories on Hand and on Order:
71, Mfg. and trade inventories, total 5
*70. Mfg. and trade invent., total, 1972 dot.5
05. Mfrs.' inventories of finished goods5
77. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade,
constant dollars2
78. Materials and supplies, stocks on hand and on
order 8 ,
L.L.L
do. ...
L,L,L
L,L,L
L.L.L
do. ...
do. ...
Bil. dol
Ul,Lg,Lg Bil. dol., EOF
do, ...
Lg,Lg,Lg
do. ...
Lg,ig,ig
lg,Lg,lg Ratio
ULg.Lg Bil. dol., EOF
8.5
8.10
25.6
0.52
11.8
11.52
25.6
0.88
15.7
14.32
2S.2
0.41
8.7
14.7
-7.0
12.19
15.14
18.93
23.95
17.7
0.90
44.2
1.76
65.3
2.34
46.2
1.82
3 0 9 . 2 4 3 3 4 . 7 8 3 3 0 . 3 4 3 3 4 . 7 8 3 4 5 . 8 4 3 4 5 . 8 4 3419.69
2 2 5 . 9 0 2 3 6 . 4 7 2 3 5 . 3 6 2 3 6 . 4 7 2 4 0 . 3 7 2 4 0 . 3 7 241.70
54.11 58.91 5 7 . 9 7
58.91 5 9 . 8 8 5 9 . 8 8 60.50
1.67
1.65
1.66
1.64
1.66
1.64
1.62
132.40 142.90 140.21 142.90 148.17 148.17 149.99
NA
NA
NA
5. 02
-19.1
-0.52
NA
NA
NA
-2.13
MA
NA
NA
1.1
0.6
1.0
NA
NA
NA
1.3
0.5
1.6
-7.5
0.49
NA
-0.02
NA
-0.02
NA
1.2
NA
1.9
6.0
2.95
26.5
0.86
3.3
1.6
1.6
0.02
3.7
30
36
31
38
71
70
6S
77
78
B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*92. Chg. in sensitive prices {smoothed 6 } 2
23. Industrial materials prices©
L,L,L
U.L.L
Percent
1967*100...
1.17
0.70
0.06
0.75
1.48
1.15
0.92
200.7
210.4
203.2
206.5
219.8
219.8
220.3
0.92
217. B
Stock Prices:
*19. Stoek prices, 500 common stocks©
L,L,L
194143=10-
102.01
98.20
98.05
93.95
89.35
88.82
92.71
97.41
4.4
S.I
-4.2
and Profit Margins:
Corporate profits after taxes
L,L,L
Corp. profits after taxes, 1i72 dollars . . . . . . . L,L,L
Corp. profits after taxes, with 1 VA and CCA . . L,C,L
do
in 1972 dol. . . .
U.L
Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.2 . . . L,L,L
Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
L.L.L
A.r., bil. dol.
.....do. ...
.....do. ...
do. ...
Cents.
1967=100...
92.1
67.5
63.3
46.8
102.5
103.6
105.0
102.4
71.3
70.7
49.5
71.5
79.7
55.4
71.3
71.5
49.0
68.3
57.0
38.6
...
...
...
...
...
5.4
123.1
5.3
122.9
5.0
123.7
5.4
122.7
5.0
119.8
-10.3
-11.6
0.4
119.5
121.3
1.5
0.7
-0.8
A.r., bil. dol
do. . . .
153.5
109.0
166.1
111.5
167.0
111.2
169.0
110.4
168.0
107.8
Lg,Lg,Lg 1967=100...
168.7
179.0
179.7
1S2.1
189.7
1,3
4.2
63
Lg,Lg,Lg Dollars
tg.Lg.Lg 1967-100...
0.890
145.4
0.947
154.7
0.949
154.7
0.964
158.0
1.002
164.8
1.6
2.1
3.9
4.3
63
62
76.0
76.0
75.8
75.9
77.3
0.1
1.4
64
Profits
1 6.
18.
79.
80
1 S.
17,
Cash Flows:
34. Not cash flow, corporate
38. Net cash flow, corporate, 1972 dollars
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share:
G3. Unit labor cost, private business sector ......
68. Labor cost (cur. dol.) per unit of gross
domestic product (1972), nonfin. carp
*02. Labor cost per unit of output, rnfg . .
G4. Compensation of employees QS percent of
national income2
L,L,L
U,L
Lg,Lg,Lg Percent
-0.23
0.2
0.0
-1.1
0.69
1.6
1.4
-0.3
122.2
1.2
-0.7
166.4
165.6
165,6
-0.5
0.0
0.73
6.4
92
23
-4.9
19
-2.5
-4.2
-0.4
-2.4
16
18
79
80
15
17
-0.6
-2.4
34
35
-20.3
-21.2
B7. Money and Credit
Money:
Sli. Change in money supply (Ml ) 2
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at
commercial banks (M2)2
*104, dig. in total liquid assets (M7) {smoothes!6}3 .
*1Q6. Money supply (Ml), 1972 dollars
106. Money supply (M2), 1072 dollars
L,L,L
Percent. . . .
0.50
0.63
0.75
0.56
0.36
0.29
1.58
0.66
1.29
-0.92
-0.19
-0.20
85
L,C,U
L,L,L
L,L,L
L,L,L
do. ...
do. ...
Bil. dot
do. ...
0.90
0.85
0.74
0.93
0.84
0.88
0.61
1.09
0.55
0.94
0.46
0.87
0.96
0.87
0.65
0.91
0.50
-0.31
-0.23
223.6
517.1
225.0
537.1
225.5
539.4
227.1
544.2
224.6
541.4
226.2
542.0
225.4
340.2
0.0
0.7
0.1
0.04
-0.4
-0.3
0.21
225.9
543.0
-0.06
-0.15
-0.5
-0.2
102
104
105
106
Velocity of Money:
107. Ratio, 6NP to money supply (Ml)2
108. Ratio, pers. income to money supply {M2} a
C,C,C
C,Lg,C
Ratio
. . , .do. . . .
5.607
1.965
5.793
1.974
5.816
1.966
5.846
1.993
5.863
2.003
2.016
2.022
2.029
0.006
0.007
0.030
0.027
0.017
0.010
107
108
Credit
33.
1 12.
1 13.
1 10.
L,L,L
U.L
L,L,L
L.L.L
A.r., bil.dol.
....do. ...
do. ...
....do. ...
91.34
19.73
48.82
84.66
22.18
44.63
NA
33.62
NA
-6.68
NA
11.44
NA
5.04
3.26
3.00
-7.51
10.02
33
112
113
110
Flows:
Change in mortgage debt2
Change in business loans2
Change in consumer installment debt2
Total private borrowing
53.34
81.22
85.63 90.67
83.16
-4.40
8.68
6.11
9.37
19.39
19.98
30.77 29.86
32.86
36.61
199.25 2 8 3 . 7 4 3 0 7 . 0 4 307.02 2 7 5 . 7 2
2.4S
-4.19
0.7
0.9
0.0
3.75
-10.2
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
Timing
classification3
Series title
Unit
of
measure
Percent change
Average
1976
1977
3cJQ
4th Q
1st Q
1977
1977
1978
Mar.
1978
Apr.
May
to
1978
1978
Apr.
1978
£
E
c
S
1
to
May
3d Q
to
4th Q
4th Q
to
1st Q
1978
1977
1978
52.2
NA
-0.15
1
3
-528
-496
9
9
-0.02
0.25
0.27
0.42
0.41
0.08
0.09
0.57
0.77
0.29
0.31
11
11
11
11
11
11
6
10
Apr.
Mar.
I. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B7. Money and Credit-Con.
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities Of business failures (inv.4)®
39. Delinquency rate, instal loans (inv.4)2 s
L LL
L,L,L
Mil.dol
Percent, EOP
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted4)2©
94. Borrowing from the Federal Reserve2©
L,U,U
Ulg.U
Mil. dol
Interest Rates:
119. Federal funds rate 2 ®
1 14. Treasury bill rate2 ©
115. Treasury bond yields2©
116. Corporate bond yields2©
117. Municipal bond yields2©
118. Mortgage yields, residential2©
67. Bank rates on short-term bus. loans2©
*109. Average prime rate charged by banks2©
do. . . .
L,Lg,Lg Percent
do.
C.Lg.Lg
do.
C,Lg,Lg
Lg,Lg,Lg
do.
do.
U,Lg,Lg
do.
Lg,Lg,Lg
do.
Lg,Lg,Lg
do.
Lg,Lg,Lg
..,
..,
...
.. .
...
. ..
...
Outstanding Debt:
66 Consumer installment debt5
Lg,Lg,Lg Bil.dol,,EOP
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large comm. banks
Lg,Lg,lg Bil. dol
*95. Ratio, consumer install, debt to pers. income2. Lg,Lg,Lg Percent
2 5 0 . 9 4 2 5 7 . 9 4 3 3 7 . 6 9 161.43
2.40
134
84
5.05
5.00
6.78
8.59
6.64
8.82
7.52
6.84
NA
NA
2.36
2.36
2.36
2.51
2.51
-253
-434
-690
-162
-38
344
462
5.54
5.26
7.06
8.20
5.68
8.68
7.97
6.82
680
5.82
5.47
6.98
8.10
5.59
8.73
8.02
6.90
906
6.51
6.14
7.16
8.29
5.57
8.82
8.59
7.67
410
6.76
6.41
7.58
8.70
5.65
NA
8.83
7.98
6.79
6.32
7.63
8.70
5.61
9.29
8.98
8.00
NA
NA
-475
NA
NA
-885
539
1,227
6.89
6.31
7.74
8.88
5.80
9.37
7.36
6.43
7.86
9.00
6.03
9.67
NA
8.00
179.93 210.70 2 0 2 . 4 8 210.70 219.85 219.85 2 2 3 . 5 7
NA
8.27
NA
NA
NA
NA
437
195
410
688
0.10
-0.01
0.11
0.18
0.19
0.08
NA
0.0
0.47
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.23
0.30
NA
0.27
0.0
256
226
0.69
0.67
0.18
0.19
NA
NA
1.7
NA
4.1
4.3
6
116.36 121.66 1 2 2 . 4 5 124.97 1 2 8 . 5 0 130.33 132.18 1 3 4 . 9 8
12.33
12.76
12.91 12.97
13.27
13.32
13.19
NA
1.4
2.1
NA
2.1
2.8
7
9
0.05
0.06
0.22
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
B1. Price Movements
310.
320
320c
322
330.
331
332
333.
334.
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Consumer prices (CPI) all items® .
Change in CPI all items S/A 2
CPI, food
Wholesale prices (WPI), all commodities©. . .
WPI crude materials
WPI, intermediate materials
WPI, producer finished goads
WPI, consumer finished goods
1972-100. . .
1967=100...
Percent
1967=100...
133.9
170.5
0.4
180.8
141.3
181.5
0.5
192.2
142.2
183.3
0.4
194.2
144.2
185.3
0.4
195.9
146.7
188.4
0.7
201.5
189.7
0.8
204.0
191.4
0.8
207.7
193.3
0.9
211.1
0.9
0.0
1.8
1.0
0.1
1.6
1.4
1.1
0.0
0.9
1.7
1.7
0.3
2.9
31
32
32
32
do.
do.
do.
do
do.
183.0
205.1
189.3
173.2
169.0
194.2
214.3
201.7
184.5
178.9
194.9
207.3
202.8
185.4
179.8
197.2
213.0
205.1
190.0
181.9
202.0
227.6
209.6
193.4
185.9
203,8
232.4
211.3
194.5
187.3
206.4
238.3
212.3
195.6
190.3
207.9
238.9
213.6
197.3
191.5
1.3
2.5
0.5
0.6
1.6
0.7
0.3
0,6
0.9
0.6
1.2
2.7
1.1
2.5
1.2
2.4
6.9
2.2
1.8
2.2
33
33
33
33
33
do. ...
185.0
198.5
200.2
204.2
209.0
210.2
212.0
212.6
0.9
do.
do.
do.
do.
108.5
192.6
113.0
116.5
109.4
209.6
115.4
119.5
109.3
211.3
115.4
120.2
110.2
215.5
116.4
120.8
110.7
222.5
117.9
119.9
110.5
110.5
109.8
0.0
...
...
...
...
B2. Wages and Productivity
340. Average hourly earnings, production workers,
private nonfarrn economy
341. Real average hourly earnings, production
workers, private nonfarrn economy
345. Average hourly compensation, nonfarm bus. . .
346. Real avg. hourly comp., nonfarm business . . .
370. Output per hour, private business sector
...
...
...
.. .
0.3
-0.6
2.0
2.4
34
0.8
2.0
0.9
0.5
0,5
3.2
1,3
34
34
34
37
-0.7
C. Labor Force, Employment, and
Unemployment
441
442.
37.
444.
445.
446.
Total civilian labor force
Total civilian employment
Number of persons unemployed
Unemployed males, 20 years and over
Unemployed females, 20 years and over
Unemployed persons, 1 6-1 9 years of age
Millions . . . .
do. ...
Thousands. .
do. , , .
do. ...
do. . . .
94.77
87.48
7,288
3,041
2,546
1,701
97.39
90.55
6,855
2,727
2,487
1,642
97.56
90.82
6,736
2,594
2,498
1,643
98.62
92.07
6,554
2,522
2,461
1,570
99.20
93.05
6,155
2,424
2,153
1,578
99.41
93.27
6,148
2,409
2,127
1,612
Labor
451.
452
453
Force Participation Rates:
Males, 20 years and over2
Females, 20 years and over2
Bothsexes, 16-19 years of age2
Percent
do. . . .
do. . . .
79.8
47.0
54.6
79.7
48.1
56.2
79.4
48.2
56.6
79.9
48.6
57.0
79.9
49.0
56.7
79.9
49.1
56.7
A.r.,bil.dol.
do. ...
do. ...
do. . . .
do. ...
do. . . .
332.3
386.3
-54.0
264.7
246.2
373.9
423.4
-49.5
294.4
265.2
373.2
432.1
-58.9
301.6
268.7
386.3
446.3
-60.0
307.1
276.0
395.3
451.1
-55.8
313.8
279.6
18.4
29.2
32.9
31.1
Mil.dol
do. . . .
8,998
4,096
9,840
4,573
2.48
86.8
2.87
94.3
9 9 . 7 8 100.26
9 3 . 8 0 94.11
6,149
5,983
2,232
2,225
2,169
2,333
1,584
1,589
79.8
49.4
57.2
79.9
49.5
58.3
0.4
0.6
-2.7
-7.6
2.0
-1.4
0.5
0.3
2.8
0.3
7.6
-0.3
0.3
0.5
0.1
0.1
1.1
...
...
-0.1
1.1
1.4
-2.7
-2.8
-1.5
-4.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.6
1.1
-6.1
-3.9
-12.5
0.5
0.0
0.4
-0,3
44
44
3
44
44
44
45
45
45
D. Government Activities
01. Receipts and Expenditures
501 .
502
500.
511.
512.
510.
Federal Government receipts
Federal Government expenditures
Federal Government surplus or deficit2
State and local government receipts
State and local government expenditures . . . .
State and local govt. surplus or deficit2
3.5
3.3
...
...
...
-1.1
1.8
2.7
34.1
-1.8
2.3
1.1
4.2
2.2
1.3
3.0
50
50
50
51
51
51
4.3
NA
-18.3
1.0
51
52
54
56
3.3
NA
NA
5.4
NA
NA
60
60
60
61
61
61
D2. Defense Indicators
516
525
548
564.
Defense Department obligations total
Military prime contract awards in (J S
New orders defense products
National defense purchases
...
Bil. dol
A.r.,bil.dol.
9 , 7 2 3 10,117 1 0 , 5 4 7 10,588
4,501
NA
5,191
NA
2.23
95.6
4.09
98.5
3.34
99.5
4.48
9,720
NA
4.03
NA
NA
3.95
-8.2
NA
-10.0
NA
NA
-2.0
4.1
15.3
83.4
3.0
E. U.S. International Transactions
E1 . Merchandise Trade
602
604.
606.
612
614
616.
Exports total except military aid .
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
General imports, total
Imports of petroleum and products
Imoorts of automobiles and oarts
Mil. dol. ...
do.
do.
do.
.do
do.
...
...
. ..
.. .
9 , 5 7 2 10,104 10,365 9 , 9 5 2 10,283 10,912 11,635 11,754
1,925
1,985
NA
NA
1,947
1,840
NA
NA
1,838
1,852
NA
1,909
1,801
NA
NA
NA
1 0 , 0 4 4 12,313 12,508 12,818 13,507 13,699 1 4 , 4 9 6 13,992
2,658
3,462
NA
3 f 4 4 0 3,370
NA
NA
NA
1,357
1,457
1,096
1,323
NA
NA
NA
NA
6.6
NA
NA
5.8
NA
NA
1.0
NA
NA
-3.5
NA
NA
-4.0
-5.5
-5.7
2.5
-2.0
7.4
Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
Unit
of
measure
Series title
Average
1975
1976
1977
4th Q
1976
1st Q
1977
Percent change
2dQ
1977
3dQ
1977
4th Q
197?
IslQ
1978
2dQ
to
3d Q
19??
3dQ
te
4th Q
1977
,_,
4th Q
te
IstQ
1978
1
.i
I
II. OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES-Con.
E2. Goods and Services Movements Except
Transfers Under Military Grants
618
§20
622
651
652
680
609
66?
Mil dol, . . . 2 6 , 7 7 2 2 8 , 6 7 4
24,510 31,012
do
2,262 -2,338
do
do.
6 , 3 4 0 7,311
do
3,141 3 , 3 2 8
do
38,914 42,819
do
33,149 4 0 , 4 7 8
do. .
5,765 2,340
Merchandise exports
Merchandise imports
Merchandise trade balance2
Ineomo on U S. investments abroad
Ineofiio on foreign investment in tho U.S. . . .
f xports of goods and services
. .
Imports of goods and sorvioes
2
Balance on goods and services
30,146
37,911
-7,765
8,025
3,648
45,804
48,432
-2,628
29,711 2 9 , 4 7 7 3 0 , 6 3 8 31,013 2 9 , 4 5 7 3 0 , 6 6 4
33,314 3 6 , 4 9 5 3 7 , 2 5 9 3 8 , 2 6 3 3 9 , 6 2 7 41,865
- 3 , 6 0 3 -7,018 -6,621 - 7 , 2 5 0 •10,170 -11,201
7,420 7,796
8,088 8,220 7,997 9,432
3,281 3,197 3,601 3,610 4,185 4 , 6 6 5
4 4 , 2 9 1 4 4 , 7 5 1 4 6 , 2 8 5 47,135 4 5 , 0 4 6 48,137
4 3 , 0 6 8 4 6 , 3 7 4 4 7 , 7 1 2 4 8 , 7 2 6 50,916 5 3 , 8 3 7
1,223 -1,623 -1,427 -1,591 - 5 , 8 7 0 - 5 , 7 0 0
4.1
-5.Q
1.2
2.7
3.6
5.6
-629 - 2 , 9 2 0 -1,031
1,6
17.9
-2.7
0.2
IS. 9
11. S
-4.4
1.8
6.9
2.1
5.7
4.5
-164 - 4 , 2 7 9
170
6ia
620
622
651
652
S68
f>69
667
A. National Income and Product
A1. GNPand Personal Income
60.
200
213
224.
226.
217.
227
1202.1 1274.7 1337.3
A.r.,bll.dol
do
1528.8 1706.5 1889.6
do .
1212.0 1266.2 1325.5
do
1084.4 1185.8 1309.2
do
857.3 890.3 930.9
5 , 6 2 9 5 , 9 2 3 6,167
A.r., dollars ......
4,014
do
4,137
4,293
GNP in 1972 dollars
GNP in current dollars
Final sales, 1972 dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars ...
Disposable personal income, 1972 dollars
Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars
Por capita disposable pers income 1972 dol
1287.4
1755.4
1289.2
1222.6
1311.0
1810.8
1301.2
1252.4
901.5
908.4
5,965 6,064
4,177 4 , 2 0 2
1330.7
1869.9
1317.5
1292.5
924.5
1347.4
1915.9
1331.8
1323.8
934.4
6,143 6 , 2 0 7
4,268 4,305
1360.2
1961.8
1351.5
1368.3
955.8
6,253
4,394
1360.3
1995,3
1345.6
1402.1
959.8
6,243
4,405
1.3
2.5
1.1
2.4
1.1
1.0
0.9
1.0
2.4
1.5
3.4
2.3
0.7
2.1
0.0
1.7
-0.4
2.5
0.4
-0.2
0.3
50
200
213
224
225
217
227
821.3 861.2 839.8 8 5 0 . 4 854.1
860. 4 8 7 9 . 8 8 7 7 . 9
127.5 138.2 130.7 136.9
137.9 136.5 141.6 137.4
3 0 7 . 6 321.6 3 3 3 . 7 3 2 9 . 4 3 2 9 . 7 3 3 0 . 0
332.4 342.7 337.9
3 5 4 . 8 3 7 2 . 2 3 8 9 , 2 379.7
3 8 3 . 8 3 8 6 . 3 391.4
395.5 402.6
9 8 0 . 4 1094.0 1211.2 1139.0 1172.4 1194.0 1218.9 1259.5 1282. 4
132.9 158.9 179.8
166.3 177.0 178.6 177.6 186.0 183.1)
4 0 9 . 3 4 4 2 . 7 4 8 0 . 7 4 5 8 . 8 4 6 6 . 6 4 7 4 . 4 481.8 4 9 9 . 9 5 0 4 . 3
4 3 8 . 2 4 9 2 . 3 5 5 0 . 7 513.9
5 2 8 . 8 541.1 5 5 9 . 5 5 7 3 . 7 5 9 4 . 6
0.7
-1.0
0.7
1.3
2.1
-0.6
1.6
3.4
2.3
3.7
3.1
1.0
3.3
4.7
3.8
2.5
-0.2
-3.0
-1.4
1.8
1.8
-1.3
0.9
3.6
231
233
238
239
230
232
236
237
-1.6
1.9
-7.0
1.0
4.7
-10.1
3.4
0.4
6.0
4.3
2.0
7.6
241
243
30
240
242
245
1.1
0.9
1.2
3.2
3.8
-1.0
-2.4
-0.1
0.7
-0.7
1.5
261
263
267
260
262
266
3.6
6.1
-1.9
A2, Personal Consumption Expenditures
231
?33
?38
239
230
?32
236
?37
A.r.,bil. dol
do
do
do.
do
do
do
do
Total, 1972 dollars
Durable Qoods, 1972 dollars
Nondurable qoods, 1972 dollars
Services 1972 do liars .
Total current dollars
Durable goods current dollars
Nondurable goods current dollars
Services current dollars
775.1
112.7
A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
241
243
30.
240
?42
245.
do
do
do
do
do
do
Total, 1972 dollars
Total fixed investment 197? dollars
Change in business inventories, 1972 del.2
Total current dollars
Total fixed investment current dollars
Chg. in bus. inventories, current dol.2
141.6
151.5
-9.9
189.1
200.6
173.0
164.5
8.5
243.3
230.0
-11.5
13.3
263.0
264.4
96.7
166.3
123.3
215.6
96.5
167.9
361.4
130.1
231.2
89.9
67.4
22.5
147.3
126.9
20.4
95.8
79.8
16.0
162.9
155.1
7.8
195.5
183.7
11.8
169.2
171.0
-1.8
294.2
243.4
244.3
276.1
18.2
186.7
177.0
9.7
271.8
197.2
184.0
13.2
185.1
15.7
197.5
188.7
8.7
204, 2
189.4
303.6
280.0
306.7
293.2
320.0
299.0
13.5
21.1
1.8
0.6
2.5
3.0
2.5
1.9
277.0
274.3
101.7
172.6
416.6
152.7
263.8
1.5
2,2
i.l
2.6
3.1
2.4
98.2
94,3
1.3
-1.7
258.0
294.9
273.2
-0.9
13.8
21.7
200.8
23.6
14.7
A4. Government Purchases
of Goods and Services
261.
?63.
267
260
282,
266.
do
Total, 1972 dollars
Federal Government, 1972 dollars .
do,
State and local fjovernments 1972 dollars
do
Total current dollars . . .
do
...... .do
Federal Government, current dollars
do
State and local governments, current dollars . . .
338.9
271.1
101.4
169.7
264.6
263.3
97.1
167.5
97.0
166.4
395.0
270.0
101.1
168.9
274.0
103.3
170.7
370.0
374.9
134.2
136.3
143.6
148.1
249.6
104.2
172.8
413.8
153.8
235.8
238.5
247.0
252.9
260.0
97,5
88.0
9.5
174.7
185.6
-10.9
96.9
83.1
13.8
168.5
165.6
3.0
96.9
86.3
10.6
170.4
178.6
-8.2
98.5
89.1
9.4
178.1
187.7
-9.7
99.8
87.6
12.2
179.9
187.4
-7.5
94.8
88.9
5.9
170.6
188.8
-18.2
145.4
390.6
400.9
2. a
AS. Foreign Trade
?5B
2B7
265.
252.
253
250
Exports of floods and services 1972 dollars
Imports of pods and services 197? dollars
Net exports of goods and serv., 1972 dol.2
Exports of goods and services, current dol
Imports of goods and services current dol
Net exports of goods and sorv , current dol 2
do
do
do
do
do
do
4.0
180. S
204.2
»23.7
2. 8
1.0
-0.2
2.2
0.7
-10.7
0.2
-5.5
256
257
255
252
253
250
2.9
3.1
9.9
1.3
3.4
-1.6
-12.6
1.9
3.1
220
280
282
2d(j
284
288
2.5
-4.2
12.6
7.2
0.5
290
295
292
2^JU
293
-5.0
1.5
-6.3
-5.2
5. a
A6. National Income and Its Components
220
?BO
282
286
284.
^88.
National income .
. . .
Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA
Corporate profits with IVA arid CCA
Rental income of persons with CCA
Net interest
do
do
do
do
do
do.
,
1217.0 1364.1 1520.5 1402.1 1 4 5 0 . 2 1505.7 1540.5 1585.7 1609.9
9 3 0 . 3 1036.3 1156.3 1074.2 1109.9 1144.7 1167.4 1203.3 1243.8
86.0
98.2
88.0
88.7
95.1
97.0
95.5
105.0 103.3
39.3 128.1 139.9 123.1 125.4 140.2
149. Q 144. d 126. b
22.3
79.1
23.3
88.4
25.3
100.9
24.1
92.0
24.5
95.3
24.9
98.9
25.5
103.1
28.4
26.9
106.1
109.4
237.0
206.6
273.6
226.5
232.2
205.3
251.4
211.5
51.4
-11.5
277.2
223.6
284.5
237.2
68. 5
-14.9
5.3
2 H7 . 9
224.0
73.3
-26.0
5.5
281.0
233.8
2.3
2.0
-1.5
6.3
2.4
4.2
-2.8
3.S
2.9
A7. Saving
290.
296.
202.
298.
?93
Gross saving (private and govt.)
Business savinq
Personal saving
Government surplus or deficit2
Personal saving rate 3
do
do
do
do
, .
Percent
195.1
179.2
80.2
-64.3
7.4
65.9
-35.6
5.6
67.3
-20.3
5,1
56.3
-29.4
4.6
4.1
76.1
-28.9
5.6
a5.7
-21.7
6.1
2.6
6.1
7.0
-11.1
0.2
-1.2
-1.4
3.8
-2.9
U.I
NOTK: Series are seasonally adjusted except tor those indicated by ©, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. Series indicated by an asterisk (*) are included in the major composite indexes. Dollar values are in
current dollars unless otherwise specified. For complete series titles (including composition of the composite indexes) and sources, see 'Titles and Sources of Series" at the back of BCD. NA = not available, a = anticipated.
EQP~
end of period. A.r. - annual rate. S/A = seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). IVA = inventory valuation adjustment. CCA - capital consumption adjustment. NIA = national Income accounts.
1
For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown elsewhere in BCD. Annual figures published by the source agencies are used if available.
3
Differences rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
The three-part timing code indicates the timing classification of the series at peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: I = leading; C = roughly coincident; Lg - lagging; U = unclassified.
4
Inverted series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
5
Hrid-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.
6
This series is a weighted 4 term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2, 1) placed at the terminal month of the span.
10
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
Chart Al. Composite Indexes
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(JulyXMay)
P T
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T
150-
-51
140-
919. Index of twelve leading indicators (series 1,3,8, 12, 19,20,29,32,38,92,104, 105)
130-
120-1
110-
100-1
*r-r
90-
-11
80-
70150140130120110-
L index of four rougliiy coincident indicators (series 41,47,51,57)
100-
9080-
930, Index of six lagging indicators (series 62,70,72,91,95,
1948 49 50
51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
61 62 63
64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75
76 77 1978
NOTE: Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags ( + ) In months from reference turning dates.
Current data for these series are shown on page 59.
BCII
JUNE 1978
11
CYCLICAL
A
INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS-Con.
Chart Al. Composite Indexes—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P I
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(July) (May)
P !
(Apr.) (fall.)
P I
(Dee.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T
913. Marginal emplopmt adjustments (series 1, 2, 3, 5)
-9
no
io n
90
-8
80
914. Capital investiwtt commitments (series 12,20,
120
"''
110-
-to
-3°
-13
L5j
\^f
10090-
*
915. toveitory investiiit and purchasing (series 8,32,38,92)
+
5
110
V
916. Profitability (series 17, 19, 80)
100
90
-n
LU
i^u110100-
JOL
>^h /
AAv x
^^
V
^\*r
v ^
90-
'*
Hn-
5
-10
-•4
-'
Av
917. Money andfinancialflows (series 104, 105, 110)
_^_
~/\^/
NV
-22
u/v^
^1
-^/^
» / --\ r^/~^
^
~
/J~
^\
v^^
^V
i
"'
13U12011010090-
Rii-
120
940. Ratio, coincident index to lagging index
110
10090-
-2
1948 4i 50 51 §3 53 54 55 116 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 €4 65 66 67 68 69 7© 71 72 73 74 7S 76 77 1978
NOTE: Numbers anterad on (lie chart indicate length of leads (•) and lagt < + ) in months from reference turning dates.
Current d»ta for these series are shown on page 59.
12
JUNE 1978
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
•
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Con.
i
Chart A2. Leading Index Components
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
T
1. Average workweek, production workers
manufacturing (hours)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees-inverted scale)
8. ft^r orders for consumer goods and materials. 1972 dollars M dol.)
32, Vendor performance, percent
reporting slower deliveries
12. Net business formation (index:
1955 56
57
58
77
78 1979
Current data for these series are shown on pages 60, 63, 64, and 65.
JUNE 1978
13
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Con.
MW
Chart A2. Leading Index Components—Con.
(July)(May)
P T
(Nov.HOet)
P
T
(Aug.)(Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P I
P
!^
(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T
T
?
200-1
3*
5
18016014012010080-
60-
38. Hot change in inventories on hart and on order, 1972 dollars, smoothed1 (ann. rate, til. doL)
92. Change in sensitive prices, smoothed1 (percent)
104. Cfiange in total liquid assets, smoothed1 (percent)
vwv
1948 49 SO
51 S2 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 ?3 74 75
76 77 1978
iThis i«rit*i is a w«!ghtad 4-term moving *varage (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for thoia tertos are shown on pages 66, 67, 68, and 70.
14
JUNE 1978
IICII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
A I
I
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS-Con.
Chart A3. Coincident Index Components
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)(May)
P
T
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T
ID
908580-
75-
41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls (millions)
7065-
160150140-
57. Manufacturing and trade sales. 1972 dollars (oil, dol.)/
IC.C.CI
~*~
120110-
100-|
9080-
f\J
V
70-
60-J
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 1978
Current data for these series are shown on pages 61, 62, and 64.
JUNE 1978
15
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS—Con.
Chart A4. Lagging Index Components
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T
(July)(May)
P T
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Dee.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T
91. Average diltion of unemployment (weeks-iaverted scale)
L&L&Lf
10-
X. /
12141618-
inventories, 197? dtiiiars fhil rtoir)
62. Labor cost per mi! of output, manufacturing (index: 1967='
1101001210-
109. Averafi prime rate charged by banks (percent)
llg.lg.Lgl
_
8-
4160140120H
100-
72. Commercial and industrial loans notstanriing weekly mnflrting
large cwnmercial bafiks (btl. dol.)
llg.lg.Ul
^^
80-
60*
40 J
14*
1210-
95. Balin. consumer installment debt to Mrsonal income (narc«mi
86-
1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 1978
Current data for these series are shown on pages 61, 67, 69, and 72.
16
JUNE 1978
KCII
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P I
(Dec.) (P3ov.)
P
T
(Now.)
P
(Mar.)
T
[Marginal Employment Adjustments)
1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing (hours)
42«
4140,
*
39-
21. Average weekly overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing (hours)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (per 100
5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment insurance (thousands-inverted scale)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees—inverted scale)
12-
3-
4-
4. Quit rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)
3-
2-
1-
78 1979
Current data for these series are shown on page 60.
JUNE 1978
17
CYCLICAL
B
INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.
Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
F T
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
T
[Job Vacancies|
68. Hath, help-waited advertising to mt*
of persons tmetployed (ratio)
/^w7
0.8*
\
0.4*
0.0 J
100-|
46. Help-wanted advertising (index: 1967=100)
y
S LA
125100-
170-
[Comprehensive EmploymentJ
160-
150-
48. Employee-hours in nonagricultural establislifMtts
<*•• rate- M
140-
130«
9690*
8580-
42. Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities (fflillim)
U^Cl
70"
41. Employees on notiagriculUiral pairrolls
(millions) ir.r.rl
69'
2625-
2322-
-40.
21*
manufaclufing, construction (millions)
195§ 56
57
58
59
60
61
62
64
6S
66
71
72
20-
73
74
79
76
77
7S 1979
Currant dftt. for thau s«rj«$ «ra shown on pag.fi 60 and 61.
18
JUNE 1978
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.
Chart Bl. Employment and Unemployment—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Mov,)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
.)
(Mar.)
T
if
59-
I Comprehelsive Employment—Con. |
! |
'
I 90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population, working age (percent)
5857565554-
[ Comprehensive Unemployment |
2-1
37. Number unemployed, total (millions-inverted scale)
s-v
3-
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate (percent-inverted scale)
91. Average duration of unemployment (weeks-inverted scale)
_~
^ 44. Unemptoyment rate,
^~
^
2- 4-
7®
77
78 1979
Current data for these series are shown on page 61.
KCII
JUNE 1978
19
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con.
Chart B2. Production and Income
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
(Nov.)
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
I
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P I
T
1600*
1§00«
1400*
1300*
1200-
[Comprehensive Output and Income]
SO. GNP in 1972 dollars, Q (an. rate, ML
1100*
10009008001300
12001100-
52. Perswal income in 1972 dollars (an. rate, bit. dolT
1000
900H
7006001100
100H
800'
51. Personal income less transfer fiayiieSIs"
1972 dollars (am. rate, kil. dol.)
800'
TOO'
600-
300-
53. Wages and salaries in mining, raanufacturiig, and cwstractioB,
1972 dollars (am. rate, hil. dol.)
/
240
220200180160-
140-
1955 56
57
B8
59
$0
61
$2
63
64
6S
6S
67
6S
6S
7®
71
72
73
74
7S
76
77
78 1§79
Current data for those lerle* are shown on page 62.
20
JUNE 1978
RCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B |
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS^Con.
Chart B2. Production and Income—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
f i J
i * i 's'n
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
i1
\
;
H
:
i
(Dec.) (NOT.)
P
T
:
,
'
!
,.
,
47 Industrial nroduction total (index! 1967-100)
rcSi
,
i1
:
T
'
!
f
(Nov.)
P
^
'
-r^
'
J
S^
./
•••
/^
I-'
150-
1
/^
S***
\
I/
f~V^
\
i
'<
c
„
„, t
!T|
>/^
140130120110inn.
170-]
;
180150140-
s
I/
\ ^/^^\J
(index: 1967=100) fc^j
•
L . -s^ /
^
K
\* y
;
sS^\^ „/
130A A/
120110'
V
V ^
100 J
700'
73. Industrial production, durable
650'
600550'
500450'
1
'
AQ
Ualtio nf finnHc nutntti
ViliHi
i-flf i floods outnurt.
(«•- fate, bil. doL)
^0-
1Q79 rlnlhrc
400350^
I Capacity Utilization I
1UU-
Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (BE A), Q (percent)
30-
;
*-^^
"^S^^^^
W
W^^^_
J^
-_
^^'^^^^^ :
^*^^
_ffl^-
-^
1 1 1
\^"
8070100-
82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (FRB), B (percent)
90-
\/
8070100-
84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials, Q (percent) L,C,U
908070-
1955 56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
€6
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
7S
76
77
7B 1979
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62 and 63.
BCII
JUNE 1978
21
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries
P
T
25 -J
6. New orders, fcrrtle goods iftdH$trie$,
current Mtan <MI. dol.)
4540-
New enters for CMSMT goods
1972 dollars (kit. dot.)
35- '
:MH
25. Gtaige ii infilled orders, ihrablt pds indistries
(bii. Ail.; MCD ffioving avg.~4-Hm)
96. MaMfactmws' unfilled enters,toablegoods Mettles (til, del.) /
rail
32. Vendor performance, Rercwrt of cMf»aaies
reporting slower deliveries
1BS5 SB
S7
SB
59
SO
62
S3
14
SB
§6
«?
358 SB
Currant data (or thete series are shown on page 63.
22
JUNE 1978
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.
Chart B3. Consumption, Trade, Orders, and Deliveries—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Now.)
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
I
(Mar.)
T
[Consumption and Trade
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars (bil. doD-^
. Manufacturing ana trafle sates,
1972 dollars (bil. dol.)
15. Industrial production, consumer goods (index
C.LC
54. Sales of retail stores, cfreut dollars (bil. dol.}-459. Sales of retail stores, 1972 dollars (bil. dol.
|U,L,U|
\
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles,
Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
1955 56
57
58
59
©0
SI
62
§3
64
65
68
67
68
69
7©
s
71
72
73
74
7§
76
77
78 1979
Current data for these series are shown on page 64.
BCII
JUNE 1978
23
CYCLICAL
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con.
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
{ DBS,) (RSov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
[Formation of Business Enterprises]
12. Het talnss tautta (Un: 1967*111
13. ttew htsiRfss incorporatiws
| Business investment Commitments
Contracts and orders tor pint art pplpittr
1972 dollars (bil. dol.
cimtt dollars (bil. dot
27. ManafactinrV new orders, capital goods iidustries
, 172 dollars (bil
24. Itawfactorers' new orders, offtil goois iidMStries,
rarreit tiollars (Wl. M.)
/
CQitracts, cflffiifcial art MtsttiaJ
(mil. sq. ft. of floor area; MCD nwrttg avg.-5-tenB)
1SSS 58
57
58
'Thli is a copyrighted series u«d by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for theie series are shown on pages 64 and 65.
24
JUNE 1978
K€l»
CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
•—][—
P
'
-v
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
(Nov.)
P
—if
(Mar.)
T
I Business Investment Com|nitment$--Con.
11. New capital appropriations, manufacturing, 8 (bit. do I.
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing,
61. Business expenditures, new plant and equipment,
Q (ann. rate, tail, dol.)
Business Investment Expenditures [
Machinery and equipment safes and
business construction expenditures
(ann. rate, bit; dol.)
76. Industrial production business equipment
(index: 1967=100)
1955
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78 1979
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 65 and 66.
BCII JUNE
1978
25
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.
Chart B4. Fixed Capital Investment—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Fell.)
P
T
(Dee.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
T
I Business Investment Expenditures-Con. |
160-
!
LLJ
Nonresidmftfel fixed investment, 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. del.
I!
;!
86. Total, Q
140120100-
88. Prtxkjcers'durable eqiiipmffit, Q
80-
60-
40-
20 J
I Residential Construction Commitments and investment)
;
28. Hew private housing units started, total (ann. rate, millions)
29. New building permits, private housing units (index: 1967=100)
70-
69. iBMNtJal fixed investment, total, 1972 dollars, 0 (am. rate, HI. <ol.)
:
fun
m
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
5040-
V
1955 56
80-
30-
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78 197i
Currant data for these sarlec are shown on page 66.
26
JUNE 1978
IICII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
T
|!Inventory 'Investment]
30. Change in business inventories, 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dot.)
+30+20+10*
Q-10-
-20-30 J
36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1972 dollars
(ann. rate, biK dol.; moving avg.M-ternT)
31. Change in book value, manufacturing and trade inventories
(ann. rate, til. dot.; MOD moving avg.-5-tertn)
38, Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and at order, mtg
. doi.; MCD moving avg.~~4%m) [gj[
1955 56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78 1979
'This series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 67.
IICII
JUNE 1978
27
CYCLICAL
B
INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.
Chart B5. Inventories and Inventory Investment—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Dee.) (Now.)
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
Inventories on Hand and On Order
TO. Book value, maraitecturing m traae invetttonsi
1972 Dllars (kit.rtol.)nTFTg] \
65. Bool value of fuanufacterers'
finished goods
77. Ratio, deflated inventories to sales,
78. Stocks of materials ami sup$*s 01 liand
ami on order, mfg. (Ml. dolj
100«
y
80-
60-
40 j
1955 56
57
58
59
@0
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
69
7©
71
72
73
74
75
7$
77
78 1979
Current data for these serial are ihown on page 67,
28
JUNE 1978
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Bj
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
T
P
T
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
T
+6-1
[ Sensitive Commodity Pricei? |
+4-
+20-
-2-J
^OU"
/
p1"
"""• •'•'""""
23. Industrial materials prices (index- I98T-HHI) """"""
IU.UI
\
^\/\^f
Uv/^/
"/" '
t
^^
[T]
220200180160-
"I
140120-
*/^V/W
VN/~
,^-^^A.
X,-
^
X
^"^
in(N
Stock
80-
^
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks (index: 1941-43=10)
60-J
140120100-
[Profits anid Profit Margins;
80-
18. Corporate profits alter taxes, 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
''IWN ^
•':
60-
40-
16. Corporate profits after taxes, current dollars,
Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
80. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CGAr
1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bil. dol.)
rrrnn
X
79. Corporate profits after taxes with IVA and CCA,
current dollars, Q (ann, rate, bil, dol.)
1955 56
57
v
58
59
SO
@i
62
S3
€8
®9
JO
71
72
73
74
75
7S
77
78 Ii79
^his series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 68.
ItCII
JUNE 1978
29
CYCLICAL
B |
INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con.
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Con.
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
T
I Profits and Profit Margins^-Con. |
22. Ratio, corporate profits (after taxes) to total corporate
130-
120-
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (iifcx: 1967=100)
110-
100-J
220200180160-
ICash Flows!
140-
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1972
Q (ann. rate, bil, dol.)
\I\A
120-
\
v
100-
80-
60-
34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars,
Q (ann. rate, Wl. dol.) r^ri
40-
195-5 56
57
58
59
60
611
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
7i
76
77
78 1979
Current data for thaie series are shown on pages 66 and 69.
30
JUNE 1978
114 II
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con.
Chart B6. Prices, Costs, and Profits—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
T
200
1
190-
[Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share)
180170160150-
B3. Unit labor cost, private business sector, Q (index.- 1967:100)
z
140130120-
1101.051.000.950.90-
±
0.85-
7
68. labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic product
(1972 dollars), nonfinanciai corporations, Q (dollars)
0.800.750.700.65-1
170160150140130-
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing (index: 1967=100)
120110-
100-
80-
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income, Q (percent)
i^mj.*«>
75-
70-
1955 56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78 1979
Current data for these series are shown on page 69.
BCII
JUNE 1978
31
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS^-Con.
Chart B7. Money and Credit
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Dee.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
T
+1.6-
85. Change in money supply-demand deposits ptos currency (it)
(percent; MCD moving avg.-6-term) ,;
+1.2+0.8+0.40.00,4-
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks (M2)
(percent; MCD moving avg.--6-terra)
+1.2+0.8+0.40.0-0.4-
184. Change in total liquid assets (percent; moving avg.-4-tena')
+1.2+0.8+0.40.0-
260240-
105. Money supply--M1»in 1972 dollars (bil. dol.)
ill
230-
aao210-
eoo-i
580S20-
106. Money supply-M2-in 1972 dollars (hil. del
1955 §6
57
88
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
480-
73
73
74
75
76
77
78 1979
Ifhii series ti a wefghttd 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1} placed on the terminal month of the span.
Current data for these series are shown on page 70.
32
JUNE 1978
BCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B |
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
T
33. Change in mortgage debt (ann. rate, bit. ftal.
112. Change in bank loans to businesses (ann. rate, bii. dot
MCD moving avg.-6-terni)
113. Change in consumer installment debt (ann. rate, hil. dol.)
116. Totaf private borrowing, Q (ann.. rate, bii. dol,
1955
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78 1979
Current data for these series are shown on pages 70 and 71.
BCII JUNE
1978
33
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS^-Con.
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Con.
(Aug.) {Apr,}
P
(Dee.) (PS0u.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
F
T
P
T
T
[Credit Difficulties |
14. Liabilities of business failures (mil. M.-imW scale;
^flying flvg -^j-Jt
IMiJ
$ .
ijUjjL, ]| , a | M/y
Deliquency rate, 30 days and over, consumer installment loans
it—invflrtfiri scaleV 11 i
JU limnhjBf h^nk hnfrn^ing frngi the Fed&ral Rftsefve (fail, dol.)
1955 56
57
S8
S9
i©
Current d*t* for these tarles are shown on pag« 71.
34
61
62
S3
64
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con.
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
F
T
(Dec.) (Wow.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Now.)
P
(Mar.)
T
12-
[interest Rates!
1110-
119. Federal funds rate (percent)——
114. Treasury bill rate (percent)
C,Lg,l
116. Corporate bond yields (percent)
115. Treasury bond yields (percent)
87-
117. Municipal bond yields (percent)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages /
(percent)
—- - '^/--
\
;
7-
Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.
BCII
JUNE 1978
35
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.
Chart B7. Money and Credit—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
T
[interest Rates-Con.
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans (percent)
109, Average prime rate charged by banks (percent)
| Outstanding Debt
68. Consumer instllment debt (bif. dol.)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial
banks (bil. dol.)
95. Ratio, consumer instaltat debt to personal income (oerc&nt)
1953 56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
69
7©
71
74
75' 76
77
78 1979
Currant data for these *erl«* are shown on page 72,
36
JUNE 1978
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nw.)
P
T
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
T
950. Twelve leading indicator components (6-mo. span-—, 1-mo. span—)
951; Four roughly coincident indicator components (6-ijw, span—, 1-mo. span—)|
100
' p t H ' it ' !'
1
50-
tf!
952. Six lagging indicator components (6-mo. spa—, 1-mo. span —)
961. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing-21 industries (9-mo. span^ 1-mo. span—)
962. Initial claims, State unemployment insurance-Si areas (percent declining; 9-mo. span-—, 1-mo. span —)
963. Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls-172 industries (6-mo. span—, 1-mo. span —
1955
56
57
58
5f
60
61
6a
63
64
65
66
67
08
©S
7©
71
72
73
74
100
75
76
77
78 1073
Current data for these series are shown on page 73.
ItCII
JUNE 1978
37
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C |
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Con.
Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Con.
(Apr.)(?eb.)
P
T
fto)
T
964. New enters, durable goods htokto-35 itriNstries OHIO, sp*—, 1-m.
965. Newly *pwl capital appropriatitns, MhM-17 imhstms1 (4-Q moving avg. ~*( 1-Q
SIN
70-
so-
966. lutastrial prodictioi-24 indistrias (6-rao. span—*-, 1-m spin
967. NHhstrlal roatefials pfices-13 iiadwstfial materials (9-»o. span—, 1-iwj. span—)
968. SUck prices, 500 mm stoclts--59-82 iudistries (9-nto. spa—, 1-rao. span---)
969. Profits, manufacturing-about 1,000 corporations (4-Q s|aa>^, 1-0
9070-
eo30-
1955
S6
S8
59
6§
611
Si
S3
§4
®5 §6
67
68
'This It a copyrighted series used by permission; It may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 74.
38
JUNE 1978
BCII
CYeLBOAl OMOTTOS
C I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Con.
Chart Cl. Diffusion Indexes—Con.
(Dec.) (Mow.)
P
I
(fc)
(Dec.) (Mow.)
P , T
970; Business expenditures for lew plant and
epipeuMB industries (1-8 span)
(a) Actual expenditures
974. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)1
70-i
60-
j>
8
9040J
1
97S. Level of inventories, manufacturing aid trade (4-Q span)
(a) Actual expenditures
976. Selling prices, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
971. New orders, manufacturing (4-Q span)1
10090«
8970601
972. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)
1
977. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-0 span)
100-
90«
807060«
1
973. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (4-Q span)
1
978. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)
100-
yn- Kyy
908070-
1
This is a copyrighted series used fay permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. Dun & Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400
business executives.
Current data for these series are shown on page 75.
itcn
JUNE 1978
39
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Con.
Chart C3. Rates of Change
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P I
(Apr,) (Feb.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
(Nov.)
P
T
(Mar.)
T
910c. Composite Index of twelve leading Motors
(series 1,3,8,12,19,20,29,32,38, 82, «4,105)
920c. Composite index of four roughly coincifctt lidicators
(series 41,47,51,57)
45,
+30-1
+20+100-10-20-
930c. Composite index of six laggfrg indicators
fffes B7 7H 79 91 JB
SOc. GHP in constant dollars (1-Q span)
TAT
-5-10-
47c. Index of industrial production
48c. Employee-hours in nonagricultgral estafalisim&nts
5
51c. Personal income less transfer payments'« 1972 dollars i
195S 56
40
5?
58
59) 60
61
62
63
64
65
66
6?
68
6$
70
71
72
73
74
71$
76
77
78 1979
JUNE 1978
BCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC
MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Chart Al. GNP and Personal Income
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T
2200H
2000
1800
16001400
1200-
200. GNP in current dollars, Q (ann. rate, Ul, dot.)
1000-
i
223. Personal income in current dollars
800-
224. Disposable personal income in current
dollars, Q (ann. rate, fail dol.)
"' l!" '
x^
^*r^
^«~~~**^
:
50. GNP in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, Ml. dot.) ^~~**^*^ ^*^"
• ;
^J-^"
^~
rT*"***
*'
"
1 ^ '
Lr
•
•
.._^*-^"
;
'-^^"
""' *
'
:
;•
;
it
°
1500140013001200*
11001000'
i
''
213. Final sales in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, bit, doll
800'
700-
225. Disposable personal income in 1972
dollars,!} (ann. rate, hi!, dol.)
600<
7.0
6.5
60
217, Per capita GNP in 1972 dollars, Q (ann. rate, thous. rioi.
5.55.04.54.0-
fl
3.5
227. Per canita disnosable nersotial income in
1972 dollars, 0 (ann. rate, thous. dol.
3.0-
2.5
1955 56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78 1979
Current data for these series are shown on pages 62 and 79.
ItCII JUNE
1978
41
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con.
Chart A2. Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Oec.) (Nov.)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
P
(Nov.)
P
T
(Mir.)
T
Annual rate, lillHHi dollars (current)
Perswal consumption npnditiires-
Annual rate, billion dollars (1972)
1955 56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
711
76
77
78 1979
Currant data for these series are shown on pages 79 and 80,
42
JUNE 1978
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
IA I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con.
Chart A3. Gross Private Domestic Investment
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.) (Mar.)
P
T
' if ••""•""is •
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
Annual rate; billion dollars (current)
Gross private domestic investment-
245. Change in business inventories, Q
Annual date, billion dollars (1972)
30. Change in business inventories, Q
A\:/"
v/
W°w/
r tf
+30-
-^-
+20-
/\l
Li
+10-
0-
\7
A
-10-20«
1955
56
57
58
69
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78 1979
Current data for these series are shown on page 80.
BCII
JUNE 1978
43
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT-Con.
Chart A4. Government Purchases of Goods and Services
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Fab.)
P
T
(NOT.)
P
Oec.) (NOT.)
P
T
(Mar.)
T
Anna) rate, billion dollars (current)
X"
BmntMot purchases uf goods and services-
II
SOO-i
460420380340-
300-
UJ
260. Total, Q
260220180*
266. State aiKl tocal .
govetiHMts, Q
140-
i
100-
60-
rate, billion dollars (1972)
340300-
281. Total, Q
260^
220"
180-
267. State and l&cal governments, Q
\
140-
100-
1955
56
57
S8
§9
60
61
62
63
64
6S
66
67
§8
69
70
71
72
73
74
7S
76
77
78 1979
Current d»t» for thaie *«riat ire shown on page 80.
44
JUNE 1978
RCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con.
Chart A5. Foreign Trade
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
T
Animal rate, billion dollars (current)
252. Exports of goods and services, Q
X
253. Imports of goods and services, Q
250. Net exports of goods and services, Q
-30-
Annual rate, billion dollars (1972)
120100-
80-
256. Exports of goods and services, B
60-
"*- 257. Imports of goods ^id services. Q
40-
+30-
255. Net exports of goods and services, Q
+20+10-
0-10-
1955
56
57
58
59
SO
61
62
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78 1979
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
IICII
JUNE 1978
45
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con.
Chart A6. National Income and Its Components
(Aug.) (Apr)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Mar.)
T
Animal rate, billion dollars (current)
2000
18001600
1400
1200
1000
900
800
700
220. National income, Q
600
500
400
300-
200
180
140
120-
Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
NT
100-
90807060*
50"
Proprietors' income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments, II
V
40-
30-
288. Net interest, Q20
284. Rental income of persons with capital
consumption adjustment, Q
10
1955
56
57
r
>8
§9
60
61
60
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
7!;
76
77
78
1979
Current data for these series are shown on page 81.
46
JUNE 1978
BCII
OTHER IMPORTANT
|A
ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con.
Chart A7. Saving
(Aug.) (Apt)
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P I
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
T
P
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
T
T
Annual rate, billion dollars (curreno]
290. Sross saving (private and government). 6
298. Government surplus or deficit, Q
1955 56
S7
§8
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
67
€8
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78 1979
Current data for these series are shown on pages 81 and 82.
JUNE 1978
47
OTHER IMPORTANT
A I
ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con.
Chart A8. Shares of GNP and National Income
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P I
(Dee.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.)
f
(Mar.)
T
Percent
Percent of GNP
70-
235, Personal consumption expenditures, Q
65-
VAT
6QJ
20-1
State and local government
of goods and services, Q
Federal Government purchases of goods and services, 0
15-
X
X
10-
248. Presidential fixed investment,
249. Residential fixed investment,
/
Q-1
V
251, let exports of goods aid services, Q
247. Change in business inventories, Q
[Percent of National lncom.pl
BQ-i
64. Compensation of employees, Q
75-
70-
65->
283. Proprietors' income with iRvefltory valuation and
capital consumption adjostmits, Q
287, enrpcrate profits with invartory valuation and
capital consumption adjustnems, Q
15-
\
m
285, Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment,
195S §6
S7
60
61
62
63
64
6§
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78 1979
Currant data for these serlot »r« shown on paga 82.
JUNE 1978
ltd*
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
Chart Bl. Price Movements
(Dee.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
T
(Dee.) (Nov.)
P
T
Index- 197MOO
T"~
16015D«
310. implicit price deflator, GNPT Q
JL
j£
TLT
(Nov.)
P
•"
Percent changes at annual rate
310c, Implicit price deflator,
GNP(l-Qspan)
140-
LU
.r*\
K
130-
+15-|
+10'
+§-
120-
180
140
J
130
120H
0-
311c, Fixed weighted price index, gross
business product (1-U span) .^
110-
150
311J Fixed weighted price iwtex^
I gross business product, IL/
(Mar.)
T
+
^1
:
A
1 V i -v^
LU
^\*S~^ \V
,
+15
+10'
+5
h
0^
Wholesale prices-330c. All commodities
1968 69
70
71
72
73
J4
79
76
77 1S78
Current data for these series are shown on pages 83, 84, and 85.
BCII JUNE
1978
49
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con.
Chart Bl. Price Movements—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(Dee.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Mar.)
T
220-
Him 1967=100
200180-
prices160-
140-
320.
'!
\
120-
100-
Perc&st cfcugss at annual rate
+20-
32flc. All items (6-*aii span)
+10-
0-10+30-
+20+10-
0-10-
Chart B2. Wages and Productivity
240-
1967=100
xx m
220200180-
345. Average hourly compensation, if! employees,
noflfann business sector (ciirsit dollars). 8
160-
140-
120-
340. Averagf toerly earnings of production workers, private
nonfan Kflfiwny (current dollars) '
100-
TO
346. Real average hourly compensatNn, ill employees,
nonfara Itsiness sector, Q
130120110100-
341.
average hourly eamiigs »j yodiction workers,
nonfarm economy'
9080-
1955 56
57
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78 1979
'Adju*tad for overtime (\n manufacturing only) and Interindustry employment shifts and seasonality.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 83, 66, and 87.
50
JUNE 1978
ItCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con.
Chart B2. Wages and Productivity—Con.
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
(Apr.) (Fab.)
T
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
T
Change to average hourly earnings of
workers, private nonfann economy^-
. ..I.
^
;
,
IU
Six-month
:V"*
""""" spans
*T«"« (ann.
*•""' rate)
^/
i
(Nov.)
P
ftj| :1
J1
(Mar.)
T
jHiU L,. ••
.'
* r !i j
. I i wk .44^^
;
• «te-^ri ^Wi' ' T KW'H'1' i"1 • • • •'
average hourly compensation, ail employees,
345c. Current dollar compensation i
One-quarter spans (ann. rate)
One-quarter spans, (ann
Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-^
348. First year avg. changes, Q (ann. raiej-*349. Average changes over life of
contract Q (ann. rate)
370. Output p hour, ail persons,
private btisiness sector, Q
358. Output per jtettr, all persons, nonfarm business sector, Q
370c. Change in output per hour, private business sector, Q
19S9 96
57
§8
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
1979
1 Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally. 2 One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown
against the background of the annuatized changes over 6-month spans. See the current data table for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 86 and 87.
ItCII
JUNE 1978
51
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
C
i
i
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
I
Chart Cl. Civilian Labor Force and Major Components
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P I
(Die.) (N@«.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P T
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
T
10510085BO-
441. Civilian tabor force, total
SS80-
70-
442. Total employed (miliiots)
70-
Latxir forts participatioa rates (percent)-
90-
451. Males 20 years and over
858075-
§6
57
58
59
60
61
S2
63
64
SS
66
$7
68
Si
70
71
72
73
74
7S
76
77
78 197S
Currant data for these terles are ihown on page 88.
52
JUNE 1978
BCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
D I
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Chart Dl. Receipts and Expenditures
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
(Dae.) (Nov.)
P
T
taal
rate, billion dollars (current)
502. Federal Government expenditures,
501. Federal Government receipts, Q
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit, Q
511. State and local government receipts. Q
200150-
V
512. State and local government
expenditures, 8
100-
50-
510. State and local government surplus or deficit, 0
1955 5$
§7
58
§9
i©
I
70
71
+38=
+20-
76
77
7S 1979
Current data for these series are shown on page 89.
KCII
JUNE 1978
53
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES^Con.
Chart D2. Defense Indicators
(Aug.) (Apr,)
P T
(Nov.)
F
(Die.) (Nov.)
P I
(Apt) (Feb.)
P
T
(Mar.)
T
14
1210-
516. Defense Department obligations, total (bit. do!.; MCD moving avg.--6-teni)
8
1
76-
525. Military prime contract awards in U.S. (bil. M,; MCD moving avg«-4-tenn)
5-
3-
548. Manufacturers' new ontefs, defense products
(bil, dol.; MCD moving avg.-6-term)
3-
i iy*
564
Ffirifiral Gnvftrnment purchasfis nf goods and services for Mtinnal dftfgu^J [afll.alt.iliL ilnl^
10090-
.-^
_^ANi ^•^*'
| 1 1
80-
s*
X
"*^*
r
^—-—^-*^
1955 96
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
—
7060-
5040.
68
69
7©
71
72
73
74
7S
7S
77
JB
Current data for these series are shewn on page 89.
54
JUNE 1978
KCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E I
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
Chart El. Merchandise Trade
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
T
(Apr.) (Feb.)
F T
(Nov.)
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
1i
(Mar.)
T
141210-
602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments (bit. dol.; MOD moving avg.-5-term) /
1
f
i
y.
4-J
Exports of agricultural products
total (fail, dnlfl
Exports of nonelectrical machinery (bil. dol.
7
612. General imports (bit. do).; moving avg.-4-term
6.05.55.04.5"
4.03.53.02.52.01.51.0-
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (fail, dot.)
0.50.4 H
0.30.2-
0.1-•
1955 56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78 1979
Current data for these series are shown on page 90.
ItCII
JUNE 1978
55
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS-Con.
Chart E2. Goods and Services Movements
(Au
P
(Dec.) (NOT.)
P
T
(Apr.)(F8b.)
P
If
T
(Mar.)
Arnal rate, billion dollars
240 *j
220-
! Excess of receipts
1 Excess of payments
200180160-
140 120«
100-
Goods atri services80-J
667. Balance on goods and services, Q
622. Merchandise trade balance, Q
651. Income on U.S. investments abroad. Q
652. Income on foreip Investments in the U.S,, Q
19S5 56
§7
58
99
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
7S
78
77
78 1979
NOTE: Annual total* ir« shown for tha ptrlod prior to 1960.
Currant data for theso serial ara tnown on pag« 91.
56
JUNE 1978
not
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F I
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Chart Fl. Industrial Production
(Aug.) (Apr.)
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
I
(Apr.) (Feb.)
P
T
I
(Nov.)
(Mar.)
P
I
Index: 1967=100
240220200-
in. iww-^
180160H
721. QECD European countries.
z
140120-
100-
722. United Kingdom
80-
60-
1955 56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78 1979
Current data for these series are shown on page 92.
KCII
JUNE 1978
57
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Con.
Chart F3. Stock Prices
Chart F2. Consumer Prices
(Doe.) (Nov.)
P
T
(Nov.)
P
(Mar.)
T
(Nov.)
P
(Dec.) (Nov.)
P
T
Consumer prices: percent changes over
6-moBth spans (annual rate)--
(Mar)
T
Stock prices19. Ihited States
140-1
120-
./V
,^/V\^
/^"/"~
^X*
\/
/"""^-S- r
W"
10080RnH3U"
x-
f^\
.^T"^
torn/ v-\fv
748.
x.
ocn«i
6
I
350inn«
A/
?nnicn w
r^
inn-
745. West Germany
.A
-X^V^V
/***/'\
\
XV
iAn«
i9n.
liMfMi
v^V /
^/^V
100-
6
Rn-
746. France
742. United Kingdom
AA
y^
/
»
>\
\*ySk t f
/*%y^
r ,
V
\ /
\f
\
^^'^
/
"V /
\J
LU
240220200180160140120100-
80fin-
747. italv
120i
100
80
6040-
743. Canada
733c.
+10-
1968 69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77 1978
140120-
-^1968 69
70
71
72
10080-
73
74
75
76
77 1978
Current data for these series are shewn on pages 93 and 94.
58
JUNE 1978
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEXES AND THEIR COMPONENTS
M| COMPOSITE INDEXES
910. Index of
12 leading indicators (series
1,3,8,12,19,
20, 29, 32, 36,
92, 104, 105)
Year
and
month
(1967=100}
920. Index of
4 roughly
coincident indicators (series
41,47,51,57)
(1967=100)
930. Index of 6
lagging indicators (series
62, 70, 72,
91,95,109)
(1967=100)
Leading Indicator Subgroups
913. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1,2, 3,
5)
914. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 12, 20,
29)
915, Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 8, 32, 36,
92)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
(1967=100)
916. Profitability (series
17,19,80)
(1967-100)
917. Money
and financial
flows (series
104,105,110)
(1967=100)
940. Ratio,
coincident
index to
lagging index
(1967=100)
1976
January
February
March
121.2
122.0
123.2
118.7
120.0
121.2
120.8
120.1
119.8
97.5
97.9
97.9
105.4
104.9
106.0
100.3
101.4
107.2
T08.5
108.3
106.7
• 106.3
106.2
98.3
99.9
101.2
April
May
June
123.0
124.5
125.6
121.9
122.0
122.5
119.2
119.7
121.0
96.0
96.5
96.1
104.9
104.9
106.5
102.1
103.0
103.6
108.4
108.0
108.3
107.6
108.0
107.4
102.3
101.9
101.2
July
August
September
125.7
125.6
125.3
122.7
123.2
123.0
121.1
120,9
121.9
95.7
95.5
94.3
106.7
106.5
107.9
103.2
103.3
102.3
109.2
109.3
108.6
107.7
107.9
107.9
101.3
101.9
100.9
October
November
December
126.1
127.0
127,7
122.7
123.9
126.0
121.7
121.2
120.9
94.5
96.0
96.8
109.3
109.0
108.7
101.3
102.0
102.2
107.4
106.7
107.5
109.4
109.7
110.5
100.8
102.2
104.2
126.3
127.3
130.0
125.2
126.5
128.8
121.6
122.3
122.8
95.6
96.6
97.9
108.8
109.6
110.6
101.0
101.6
103.4
106.8
106.2
107.0
110.3
109.9
110.6
103.0
103.4
E>104.9
June
130.4
129.9
129.7
129.1
129.5
130.2
123.3
124.3
126.5
97.1
97.1
97.0
110.0
110.7
111.5
104.1
103.4
102.7
107.7
108.4
108.7
111.3
110.3
110.0
104.7
104.2
102,9
July
August
September
129.4
131.3
132.2
130.5
130.6
131.3
126.8
128.1
129.3
96.1
96.1
96.4
110.7
112.9
112,8
102.3
102.8
102.9
109.5
1)109.6
108.8
111.3
112.6
114.0
102.9
102.0
101.5
October .
November
December
133.5
H34.1
r!35.1
132.4
133.3
134.6
131.0
132.4
132.6
96.8
97.6
98.5
113.1
113.8
Dm. 7
103.1
102.6
103.2
107.6
107.1
105.8
H> H5.3
H15.2
r115.0
101.1
100.7
101.5
K133.7
r!34.5
r!34.7
132.8
134.0
H35.9
135.4
137.3
r!38.8
96.8
96.7
r98.3
113.3
114.0
H13.2
103.7
104.8
105.2
H03.4
H02.0
rlOl.8
H14.1
H12.2
rllO.7
98.1
97.6
97.9
138.0
138.4
139.4
G> 3 141.5
E> r98.6
p97.8
r!13.3
pl!3.3
DH05.6
p!05.3
103.8
p!05.3
rill. 9
pill. 8
r99.0
p97.8
....
99.3
1977
January
February
March ...
April
..
...
May
1978
January
February
March
April
May
June
H> 136.1
M35.9
2
July . . .
August
September
October . .
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated bylB);for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by (R). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p". preliminary;"e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12.
'Excludes series 12 and 36 for which data are not yet available.
2
Excludes series 57 for which data are not yet available.
3
Excludes series 70 and 95 for which data are not yet available.
ItCII JUNE 1978
59
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
BB EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class. . . . . . .
Year
and
month
1,1,1
1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing
(Hours)
L.UL
L.C.L
2. Accession
21. Average
weekly overtime rate, manufachours, produc- turing
tion workers,
manufacturing
5. Average
weekly initial
claims, State
unemployment
insurance1
(Per 100 employees)
(Hours)
1,1,1
L,C,L
(Thous.)
Comprehensive
Employment
Job Vacancies
Marginal Employment Adjustments
L, Lg, U
3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing
4. Quit rate,
manufacturing
(Per 100 employees)
(Per 100 employees)
L, Lg, U
u,e,c
U, Lg, U
60. Ratio, helpwanted advertising to persons
unemployed
46. Index of
he5p-wanted
advertising
in newspapers
(Ratio)
(1967-100)
48. Employeehours in nonagricultural
establishments
(Ann. rate,
oil. hours)
1976
January
February
March
40.4
40.3
40.?
3.1
3.1
3.2
4.1
4.2
4.3
359
342
347
1.1
1.0
1.2
1.6
1,7
1.8
0.352
0.384
0.394
87
93
94
150.59
150.22
150.34
April
May
June
39 4
40.3
40 2
2.5
3.3
4.1
4.0
1.3
1.3
1 .8
3 1
3 8
360
392
397
1 4
1 7
0.378
0.397
0 402
91
94
96
149.66
151.35
151 07
July
August
September
40 1
40 0
39 7
3 1
3 0
3 0
3 8
3 8
3 7
403
408
424
1 4
1 5
1 5
1 7
1 6
1 6
0 396
0 390
0 383
98
97
94
151 73
151 69
152 11
October
November
December
1Q Q
i n
d?ft
1 R
40 1
40 o
3 1
3 2
393
349
1 3
1 2
l fi
1 5
1 7
0 389
0 394
0 417
99
105
15? A?
152 59
153 59
January .
F'ebruary
March
39 5
40 3
40 4
3 2
3 3
386
431
329
1 2
1 4
1 8
1 9
3.3
4 0
fH>4 6
4 2
1,1
1.9
April
May
June
40 3
40 4
40 5
3 4
3 4
3 4
4 0
4 1
3 9
358
378
363
1 1
1 1
1 2
1 9
1 9
1 8
O
O
3 4
? ^
? ?
3 3
? R
382
1 3
1 ?
1 "3
1 8
3Q1
•377
372
349
331
1 1
0 9
1 0
?^i
370
n Q
O Q
2 ft
^ fi
3 9
4 i
1.7
1977
July
August
September
October
November
December
40 2
40 3
do ^
^ Q
40 4
40 5
40 5
3 5
3 5
3 5
QQ e
*3o n
q c
A
f)
fjL|\ Q Q
f\
r40 6
r3 7
4
4
0
3 8
3 9
4 5
105
106
108
1 c.9 9K
109
112
114
1 I^R ftl
1i 3D.
RK DU
t\n
n R^fi
O coo
O . c'yc
b Jb
121
1 R7
199
1 R£ QQ
i?n
1
K7 1
1 b/.
1 HA
1 8
1 9
2 1
0 570
128
133
140
IRA fiQ
n ^Qd
n fifii
1 Q
O
cen
1?R
O
A7Q
cpo
1 ^Q
1 Al
1 t\l fid
1 ^R QfS
tf»i
fi^I , on
rlo
do
fH) 0.726
pO.697
[H)146
pi 44
[H> H62.73
p!62.17
1 R
1 R
O
O
0
Q.A.9
A.1A.
4.RO
A.79
AQA
fl A.Q9
1 RA
QC
1^ ^R
1 f^fi 69
11
I^A in
1 rift Qd
1978
January
February
March
April
May
HSr4.fl 7
nAn ^
3 6
c
no
p
J.D
& 9
n/i \i
p*+.
O Q
fu\ 7on
330
p328
fu\
[»}
o
u .9y
pi 0
9 1
fu\ r2 3
p2 1
O
June
July
August
September . .
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by©. Current high values are indicated by[H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by[H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships
or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13,17, and 18.
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by the source agency.
60
JUNE 1978
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con.
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
^M EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con,
Minor Economic
Process .
...
Timing Class
Year
and
month
Comprehensive Unemployment
Comprehensive Employment-Con.
U.C.C
C.C.C
L, C, U
U, Lg, U
L, Lg, U
L, Lg, U
L, Lg, U
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
42. Persons
engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey
41. Employees
on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment
survey
40. Employees
in goodsproducing industries (mining, mfg., construction)
90. Ratio,
civilian employment to total
population of
working age
37. Number of
persons unemployed, civilian
labor force
43. Unemployment rate,
total
45. Average
weekly insured unemployment rate
State programs1
91. Average
duration of
unemployment
44. Unemployment rate,
persons unemployed 15
weeks and over
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
(Thous.}
(Percent)
(Thous.)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Weeks)
(Percent)
1978
January
February .
March
82,956
83,287
83,562
78,413
78,650
78,929
23,069
23,143
23,244
55.70
55 80
55 90
7,359
7 205
7 108
7 9
7 7
7 6
4 4
4 2
4 1
16 7
ifi ^
Ifi d
? Q
9 7
9 £.
April
May
June
83 825
84 232
84 134
79 228
79 263
79 402
23 371
23 353
23 357
56 08
56 21
7 174
7 041
7 117
7 fi
7 4
7 K.
4 1
ICQ
d °.
1C 1
2 . 9<L
2 . 0£
2 .4/1
July
August
September
84 477
84 453
84 512
79 5?n
7Q finfi
79 895
pq qci
cc po
?q ?Qq
°°, 4^4
cc i n
cc nc
7 °,7C.
7 409
7019
7
7
October
November
December
84 554
85 017
85 206
7Q
pqc
pq qcc
8n 197
an °,7n
pq Aon
cc n^
cc pi
pq cpp
cc P7
pc cop
pn c~7A
pC
or) 070
cc n7
7 qco
7 £Q.£
7 AQn
7
p
7 7
7
7
7
p
7 p
4
A
4 . cb
T /"
Q
1 b.o
1C C
40
Ib.b
2.4
I C C
4
1C
I b, To
2 .5r2 .4/1
Q
5 . 11
4 . 7/
4 A
1 b, b
1C
Ib.oO
1C A
1 b. 4
1C
I b. 0o
2 .5r
2 .bc
2 .6f
1977
January
February .
March
000
pc pqq
pi qqi
pC
C91
pC
n^p
P7 01 o
pi con
pi po,7
po i c7
July
August
September
87 382
87 569
87 889
82 407
82 474
82 763
October
November
December
88 140
pp pc7
April ....
May
June
....
pq ppc
oq
cpc
do, bob
pq 7cq
£j,
/DO
CC QO
ob.
Jo
cc
oo. ci
t> 1
94 m 7
cc 71
OD. / 1
9A
7C.
£*f, 1
1 /O
p/i pc/i
CC
QO
bt>. by
C.7 OK
b/.
Ub
nc.c
7 ,Ubb
7 ,tP7O
/O
71
, /1C
I4b
QC.Q
6 ,oby
on/\
6 ,oy4
on>i
6 ,yu4
9/1
qcc
£4, Jbb
C7 01
O/ . C. \
24 412
24 305
?4 ?fin
R7 OQ
R7 M
£.7 P^
6
p,? on?
p/i Aqc
C? qc
pq p/ic
pq /ipq
p/i cpp
C7 PI
C7 QQ
6 cpp
ceo
6 ,bbo
pq
71 Q
p/i coq
QA
fi/IC
p/i 7qq
vflA
CCC
yOd q/IC
p/l
COC
£4,bi£O
b/.yb
7 . /14
7 c
.b
7 ,/ 4
i
7 1
. 1
7-1
. 1
7 1
. \
3
n
.0
3-7
. /
3.7
/
3.7
q o
7 n
d n
4 ri
C
6
6
6 *,o
3 110n
-1
.1
4 .f 1
Q
71Q
fi R?1
CCQ
4
0
6 p
6 . 7/
6. 4
U-t
.7
U/i
.4
15.3
2.3
2.3
2.1
14.4
1 /t O
14.9
14.3
1 .9
1 .9
1 .8
U
I . ny
1 .b
T
iq 7
ri
U
0
1 Q
i .y
4 . (\U
3 .0
3 . 7/
1Q Q
I O. O
TO 7
13.7
13.8
1 .8
1.8n
3,5
1 "3 1
13.1
ip c
1 A
q /i
12 3
1 K.
3 1
12 3
H> 12 1
1 4
E>1 4
Q
I .yn
1978
January
February
March ...
April
May
June
pq cp 7
pq 7ci
pQ
QCC
90 526
(U\
Q77
|H/ QO
rU , o
//
r85 1 70
rn\
nftc. J4b
"5AR
[H) poo,
r pc
qqi
[rj\ n pc qpp
cp n7
cp np
cp 1 p
58 44
[u\ cp c;^
6ppc
,c^O
nqn
fi Idft
6
H)5 983
6 149
6. O
0
fi
1
6 2
[R)6 0
6 1
3
C
fwN
o^3 -un
[n/ H-
1-7
.7
July
August
September
October . .
November
December
N OTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are indicated by (H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by [R). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15,16,18, and 19.
x
Data exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by the source agency,
BCII
JUNE 1978
61
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS —Con.
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
HE| PRODUCTION AND INCOME
Minor Economic
Process
Industrial Production
Comprehensive Output and Income
c,c,c
Timing Class
50. Gross national product
in 1972 dollars
Year
and
month
C,C,C
Personal income
223. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
52. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
c,c,c
c,c,c
51. Personal
income less
transfer payments in 1972
dollars
53. Wages and
salaries in
mining, mfg.,
and construction in 1972
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
C,C,C
47. Index of
industrial
production,
total
(1967=100)
C,C,C
C, I, L
73. Index of
industrial
production,
durable manufactures
74. Index of
industrial
production,
nondurable
manufactures
(1967-100}
41967-100)
C,C,C
49. Value of
goods output
in 1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1976
January
February
March
1 ,25616
1,326.9
1,338.9
1,348.3
1,015.2
1,023.6
1,029.2
871.5
877.6
882.6
217.2
218.7
221.0
125.9
127.6
128.3
116.0
118,4
119.5
137.5
139.9
140.3
S7l!e
April
May
June
l,2?i!5
1,359.5
1,367.9
1,372.7
1,033.1
1,033.9
1,033.7
888.9
891.8
891.7
222.0
222.3
221.9
128.7
129.7
129,8
120.3
122.2
122.4
140.4
140.6
140.6
S79!s
July
. .
August
September . . .
1,283/7
1,386.2
1,393.7
1,401.8
1,039.1
1,040.1
1,041.5
893.9
894.6
897.0
222.5
221.0
222.6
130.7
131.3
130.6
124.0
125.0
122.4
140.3
140,4
142,3
586^9
1, 287^4
1,414,2
1,432.1
1,450.2
1,046.8
1,056.1
1,065.5
902.1
909.8
918.6
221.9
225.0
225.9
130.2
131.5
133.0
121.4
123.4
125.0
141.9
143,0
143,3
581 !9
January
February
March
l,31l!6
1,454.3
1,477.0
1,499.1
1,060.0
1,070.3
1,083.2
913.8
923.2
933.7
223.8
227.4
232.2
132.3
133.2
135.3
123.4
124.0
126.8
143.4
145.3
147.0
602*. 4
April
May
June
l,33o!7
1,510.1
1,517.3
1,524.3
1,086,4
1,086.1
1,085.7
938.2
940.9
943.2
233.1
234.3
235.7
136.1
137.0
137.8
128.0
129.3
130.5
147.0
148.5
148.4
608 '.5
July
August
September .
l,347!i
1,539.2
1,549.0
1,561.3
1,091.6
1,093.9
1,100.3
944.7
946.6
952.1
235.9
234.2
235.6
138.7
138.1
138.5
131.6
131.3
131.7
148.6
149.4
149.5
617.'6
October
November
December
1,360!2
1,584.0
1,602.3
1,622.7
1,112.4
1,120.5
1,130.0
964.3
971.5
981.1
238.3
239.4
238.3
138.9
139,3
139.7
132.4
132.7
133.4
149.6
150.1
150.9
§)rl s 360.3
1,625.2
1,634.5
rl,656.6
1,120.8
1,121.1
rl,129.2
972.3
973.3
r981.5
238.0
239.8
r244.3
138.8
139.2
r-140.9
131,1
H31.5
rl34.4
149.8
H50.6
151.5
rl,677.9
rl, 135.3
H> Pi, 693, 3 B> el, 136.4
988.8
[H)e989.9
Dr248,4
p247.9
r!42.9
E>pl43.7
r!36.4
BP137.2
rl52.6
[H)pl53.2
October
November
December
,
1977
.....
[8>624*.4
1978
January
February ....,,.,,
March
April
May
June
reie'.e
July
August
September , . .
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Current high values are indicated by[H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by 0). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 15, 20, 21, and 41.
62
JUNE 1978
IICII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.
H
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Minor Economic
Process
PRODUCTION AND
IJMCOME-Con.
Rl CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES
Capacity Utilization
L,C,U
Timinrj Class
83. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(BEA)
Year
and
month
(Percent)
82. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
manufacturing
(FRB)
(Percent)
Orders and Deliveries
L,C,U
84. Rate of
capacity
utilization,
materials
(Percent)
L, L, L
L, L, L
Value of manufacturers' new
orders, durable goods industries
6. Current
dollars
(Bil.dol.)
7. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Bil.dol.)
L, L, L
8. New orders
for consumer
goods and
materials in
1972 dollars
(Bil.dol.)
/
L, L, L
L, Lgf U
25. Change in
unfilled orders,
durable goods
industries
96. Manufacturers' unfilled
orders, durable
goods industries
(Bil.dof.)
(Bil.dol.)
L, L, L
32. Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliveries®
(Percent
reporting)
1976
January
February
March
. .
79! 1
79^3
*82
April
May .
June
, .
October
November
December
'so
'si
32.55
33.79
35.39
31.34
31.91
32.88
-1.04
-0.35
0.99
161.83
161.49
162.48
42
50
52
80^3
8o!7
50.12
50.60
51.13
35.05
35.26
35.46
32.48
32.93
32.99
0.38
0.06
0.26
162.86
162.92
163.19
58
58
62
8K2
52.09
50.92
50.91
35.90
34.92
34.68
32.88
32.60
31.91
0.67
sbis
-1.36
0.11
163.86
162.50
162.61
60
64
60
8CL6
80 ,*3
51.70
53.49
56.44
34.93
36.00
37.73
31.51
33.10
34.23
1.36
0.71
1.75
163.98
164.69
166.44
50
48
45
8K2
80*4
56.36
56.43
59.29
37.45
37.32
38.91
34.47
34.80
36.32
1.83
0.81
0.87
168.27
169.07
169.94
44
55
56
82! 7
B>82!e
58.80
58.84
59.11
38.41
38.25
38.38
35.08
34.92
35.05
1.80
1.56
1.06
171.74
173.30
174.36
58
56
58
82^3
56.37
59.27
60.36
36.25
37.87
38.25
34.41
35.54
35.19
-1.10
[R>83;b
0.62
1.08
173.27
173.89
174.97
59
58
56
82.9
82!2
63.56
62.82
66.16
40.05
39.36
41.25
35.74
35.82
35,92
3.24
2.59
4.04
178.21
180.80
184.83
56
50
56
82." 1
81 .*7
63.34
66.68
69.02
r39.07
40.81
41.98
r35.80
36.98
37.53
3.36
3.60
|H> 4 . 5 6
188.19
191.80
196.36
55
64
H>67
[H>r70.03
p69.47
(R>r42.16
p41.58
E>r38.59
p37.47
r!99.90
DP203.79
64
64
*82
July
August
September
45.93
47.92
50.43
1977
January
February
March
April
May
June
*83
*84
July
August
September
, October
November
December
'82
'82
1978
January
February
March
April .
May
June .
E>'84
r3.54
p3.90
July . .
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©.Current high values are indicated by E); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series ore shown on pages 13, 21, and 22.
110
JUNE 1978
63
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con.
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
H
JQ CONSUMPTION, TRADE, ORDERS, AND DELIVERIES~Con.
Minor Economic
Process
Formation of Business Enterprises
Consumption and trade
Timing Class
C.C.C
C,C,C
Manufacturing and trade sales
Year
and
month
56. Current
dollars
(Mil.dol.)
57. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Mil.dol.)
CfL,C
C.L.U
U,l,U
75. Index of inSales of retail stores
dustrial production consumer
54. Current
59. Constant
goods
dollars
(1972) dollars
(1967-100)
(Mil.dol.)
FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(Mil.dol.)
L,C,C
L.L.L
55. Personal
consumption
expenditures
automobiles
58. Index of
consumer
sentiment ©
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(1st Q
1966-100)
1, 1. 1
12. Index of
nat business
formation
(1967-100)
UUL
13. Number of
new business
incorporations
(Number)
1976
January
February
March
191,515
193,881
196,000
129,942
131,732
133,398
132.6
134.6
135.2
51,669
52,076
52,174
38,704
39,461
39,958
52!7
84^5
115.4
114.5
116.3
29,639
29,043
31 ,027
April
May
June
197,823
197,877
200,557
133,325
132,406
133,651
135.4
136.5
136.0
52,600
52,298
52,916
40,012
39,132
39,810
54 '.5
82!2
115.7
114.9
118.6
29,876
28,637
31,600
July
August
September
201,159
201,911
202,396
133,424
134,962
133,701
136.1
137.0
135.7
52,946
53,197
53,370
39,525
40,061
39,431
54^8
88^8
117.8
117.8
118.3
30,114
32,746
32,368
October .
November .
December
201,574
205,916
212,390
132,414
133,823
138,905
135.9
138.4
141,3
54,171
54,822
56,685
39,705
40,241
41,713
58! 1
86.'6
120.1
121,3
121.0
32,887
33,496
33,495
January
February
March
211,684
216,332
221,752
136,769
138,674
142,141
139.9
140.5
142.9
55,703
57,291
57,990
40,471
41,288
42,006
65^6
87 '.5
123.3
123.0
124.3
34,519
33,173
35,300
April
May
June
221,048
221,510
222,563
140,076
139,895
140,459
142.9
143.1
143.8
58,142
58,003
57,825
41,818
41,472
40,861
®65!i
i)89;i
122.4
123.2
125.8
33,394
34,442
37,229
221,874
224,247
224,907
140,084
141,406
141,616
145.4
144.7
144.9
58,552
59,020
59,014
41,165
41,186
41,211
62^3
87.*6
126.6
130.6
129.6
35,749
39,525
37,812
228,508
231,488
237,258
142,944
143,568
146,406
144.9
145.2
145.8
60,778
61,588
62,054
42.325
42,681
10)42,766
63^2
83J
132.0
133.5
134.8
38,943
38,344
[H) 39, 674
230,182
238,427
r242,840
140,357
144,721
H46.936
141.8
rl43.8
H46.0
r59,855
61,661
r62,690
r 40, 829
41 ,804
r42,215
r62*.9
83.7
84.3
78.8
»135.1
135.0
rlSl.8
36,547
39,253
r 37, 602
[R»p250 s 647 (H}pl49,523
147.3
®p147.3
[g)r63,878
p63,775
r42,642
p42,235
81,6
82.9
e!32.6
p38,498
1977
July
. .
August
September
,
October
November
December
1978
January , . , . , , , , , , .
February ,
March ...
.
April
May
June
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are indicated by(H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13,15,23, and 24,
64
JUNE 1978
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS —Con.
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS . . . .
M FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
Minor Economic
Process
Business Investment Commitments
L,L,L
Timing Class
L, L, L
L, L, L
Contracts and orders for plant
and equipment
Year
and
month
10. Current
dollars
20. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
Value of manufacturers' new orders,
capital goods industries, nondefense
24. Current
dollars
(Bil.dol. }
UC,U
U, Lg, U
C, Lg, Lg
9. Construction contracts for commercial and industrial buildings, floor
space1
11. Newly
approved capital
appropriations,
1,000 manufacturing corporations1
97. Backlog of
capital appropriations, manufactur-
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil. dot.)
L,L,L
27. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Bil.dol.)
Square feet
(Millions)
Square meters2
(Millions)
1
ing
1976
January
February
March
14.35
13.97
15.10
10.40
10.18
10.73
11.13
11.44
11.89
8.16
8.41
8.49
44.27
50.95
52.32
4.11
4.73
4.86
1 1 " 38
April
May
June
14.29
13.41
15.82
10.38
8.69
8.76
8.77
52.83
52.65
53.85
4.91
4.89
5.00
12!22
11.15
11.85
12.21
12.35
July
August
September
15.97
14.81
16.43
11.28
10.48
11.48
12.90
12.35
13.24
9.17
8.78
9.28
52.21
50.78
48.53
4.85
4.72
4.51
1l! 83
October
November
December
16.85
15.78
16.09
11.76
10.95
11.16
13.80
12.86
13.70
9.66
8.94
9.53
51.47
52.53
54.81
4.78
4.88
5.09
14*36
January
February
March
17.15
17.13
16.65
11.79
11.71
11.37
14.67
14.32
14.61
10.12
4.98
4.76
6.27
14*63
10.01
53.56
51.27
67.45
April ;
May
June
r!7.58
rl9.20
18.49
r!2.00
r!2.99
12.37
14.69
14.89
15.49
10.08
10,16
10.42
55.88
63.20
61.12
5.19
5.87
5.68
15*05
July
August
September
16.58
18.31
20.20
11.05
12.21
13.22
13.94
14.53
16.12
9.32
9.76
5.43
6.60
6.30
17*69
10.59
58.48
71.07
67.79
October
November
December
17.89
18.63
20.83
11.78
12.08
13.40
16.10
16.09
16.99
10.63
10.48
10.99
63.06
70.62
72.04
5.86
6.56
6.69
17. '26
20.42
E>22.76
20.86
13.00
Drl4.45
13.29
16.51
[H>17.88
17.51
10.58
D 11.41
11.22
83.03
67.86
71.94
7.71
6.30
6.68
E>pl7'.82
rl9.16
p21.28
r!2,22
p!3.53
r!7.41
p!7.80
rll.15
pll.39
r76.71
H> 88.41
7.13
9.59
46* 07
46 '39
45.' 89
47*53
1977
9.83
49! 29
50*74
54*20
57*52
1978
January
February
March
April
May
June
E>p6l"99
D8.21
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by (g). Current high values are indicated byED; for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by |H>. Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs
of these series are shown on pages 13,24, and 25.
.
_,
l
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.
McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F . W . Dodge Division (series 9) or The Conference Board ("series 11 and 97).
Converted
to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
IM]|I JUNE 1978
65
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS -Con.
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
fflj
Minor Economic
Process
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.
Residential Construction
Commitments and Investment
Business Investment Expenditures
C, Lg, Lg
Timing Class
61. Business
expenditures
for new plant
and equipment
total
Year
and
month
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
C, Lg, Lg
C, Lg, U
69. Machinery
76. Index of
and equipment
industrial prosales and business
construction
equipment
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(1967=100)
C, Lg, C
Lg, Lg, Lg
C, Lg, C
Nonresidential fixed investment in 1972 dollars
86. Total
87. Structures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
88. Producers'
durable equip.
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
I, L, L
28. New
private housing
units started,
total
(Ann. rate,
thous.)
L(L, L
L, L, L
29. Index of
new private
housing units
authorized by
local building
permits
(1967=100)
89. Residential
fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1976
January
February . . .
March
114//2
159.22
164.46
166.91
131.4
132.8
134.2
113.'?
36^8
76,~8
1,262
1,452
1,427
103.0
102.6
100.3
April
May
June
118J2
167.83
170.20
169.58
134.4
134.8
136.2
115^9
37J
78^9
1,405
1,468
1,508
102.9
102.4
122^55
170.85
174.95
174.51
137.9
137.6
137.0
118^5
37J
8K4
1,410
1,546
1,753
107.3
112.8
127.6
4?!i
125,'22
175.12
176.88
184.22
135,7
140.1
142.3
119!6
37.*3
8l!7
1,662
1,680
1,824
122.8
131.9
130.2
52.'6
130J6
181.13
183.42
190.52
142.3
143.5
144.8
124^3
37'.0
87,'3
1,393
1,751
2,090
125.3
132.5
143.3
52 '.7
April
May .
June
134^24
190.19
191.94
189.78
147,1
148.9
150.1
126*,4
38^2
88*. 1
1,899
1,982
1,931
142.6
142.7
149.9
57 '.6
July
August
September
140.' 38
195.86
200.77
203.19
151.2
151.1
152,1
127^6
38*.9
88*. 7
2,072
2,038
2,012
144.6
152.5
146.1
57^5
October
November
December
i38!ii
206.02
205,21
208.06
152.6
153.5
154.0
128!9
39^4
89 ,*5
2,139
2,096
[B)2,203
153.5
B)157.0
153.2
P144.25
206,02
210.89
r218.65
152.6
154.2
157.4
E> r 130*.2
[I®r39'.7
E>r9o!4
1,548
1,569
r2,047
131.5
132.2
141.9
[Hf)p226.36
H59.0
E>pl59,9
r2,181
p2,075
149.9
137,6
July
August
September
,
October . . . .
November
December
44 ',8
97.6
4?!i
1977
January .
February
March
. .
|H) 59.' 9
1978
January
February
March
April
May
June
ra!48.8S
July
August
September
al53!83
October
November
December
a156.*84
(NA)
rS9i3
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by (u). Current high values are indicated by(H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by [R). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14,25, and 26.
66
JUNE 1978
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS —Con.
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS .
j^l INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT
Minor Economic
Process
Inventory Investment
U L, L
Timing Class
Year
and
month
L,L,L
36. Change in inventories on
30. Change in
hand and on order in 1972
business invendollars
tories in 1972
Monthly
dollars
Smoothed
data
data1
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Inventories on Hand and on Order
L,L,L
L, L, L
31. Change
in book value
of mf g. and
trade inventories, total
38. Change
in stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg.
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
65. Mfrs.'
. 77. Ratio,
inventories of constantfinished
dollar inven70. Constant goods, book
tories.to
sales, mfg.
(1972) dollars value
and trade
Manufacturing and trade
inventories, book value
71. Current
dollars
{Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil:doL)
(Ratio)
L, Lg, Lg
78. Stocks of
materials and
supplies on
hand and on
order, mfg.
(Bil.dol.)
1976
January
February
March
April
May
June
9^7
....
July
August
September
1.54
285.53
287.31
289.51
216.93
217.66
218.75
49.65
49.98
50.33
1.67
1.65
1.64
126.48
126.34
127.88
26.2
28.7
45.3
0.45
1.10
0.65
291.70
294.09
297.87
219.59
220.52
222.25-
50.69
51.05
51.95
1.65
1.67
1.66
128.33
129.43
130.08
13.95
12.90
11.15
21.2
23.8
33.7
0.19
-0.69
0.51
299.63
301.61
304.42
222.90
224.48
225.76
52.43
53.05
53.59
1.67
1.66
1.69
130.27
129.58
130.09
9.94
8.03
3.50
20.9
19.7
17.1
0.48
1.42
0.41
306.17
307.81
309.24
226.27
226.25
225.90
54.33
53.93
54.11
9.67
3.24
7.24
14.24
11.78
24.0
27.0
41.9
1.77
0.86
1.55
311.24
313.49
316.98
227.06
227.47
228.47
7.60
16.00
12.72
12.56
11 .56
12.36
39.6
23.7
21.6
0.86
1.38
0.15
320.27
322.25
324.05
11.3
31.8
32.5
-0.78
0.92
1.10
28.2
19.2
34.7
32.6
7.26
8.65
-4.84
-1.75
17.39
9.34
12.'l
14.06
20.22
13.*8
11.30
12.48
5.81
October
November
December
6.30
-i.'s
-0.68
-2.70
0.28
-0.14
6.13
22.9
21.4
26.4
11.45
12.69
14.07
E>1.71
1.69
1.63
130.57
131.99
132.40
54.38
54.59
54.79
1.66
1.64
1.61
134.17
135.03
136.58
229.10
230.24
231.61
55.21
56.31
56.89
1.64
1.65
1.65
137.44
138,81
138.96
324.99
327.64
330.34
232.73
234.40
235.36
57.49
57.57
57.97
1.66
1.66
1.66
138.18
139.10
140.21
0.60
0.62
1.48
330.83
333.19
334.78
235.42
236.39
236.47
58.50
59.07
58.91
1.65
1.65
1.62
140.80
141.42
142.90
1.33
1.60
337.68
340.40
r345.84
237.56
238.22
r 240. 37
59.68
59.57
59.88
1.69
1.65
144.23
145.83
148.17
rl.82 E>p349.69
H>p241.70
[R}r60.50
1977
January
February
March
19.91
....
April
May
June
9!7
is! 2
July
August
September
Dis!)
10.88
23.87
12.65
12.65
14.51
15.81
October
November
December
3.38
8*7
17.20
14.55
12.19
5.20
9.84
5.8
1978
January
February
March
April
May
June
r!4.7
r23.16
H3.62
!>r34.81
p23, 69
(NA)
rll.89
H4.59
rl8.93
E>r65.3
H>p23.95
p46.2
(NA)
(NA)
D2.34
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
1.64
pi. 62
(NA)
[R}H49.99
(NA)
July
. .
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to containno seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are indicated byE); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by |H). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14,16,27, and 28.
Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.
KCII
JUNE 1978
67
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con.
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCFSS
PS
Minor Economic
PrOCeSS
L, I, I
Timing Class
U.L.L
92. Change in sensitive prices
Year
and
month
Stock
Prices
Sensitive Commodity Prices
.,
Monthly
data
Smoothed
data2
{Percent}
(Percent)
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS
23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices®
(1967-100)
L,L, I
19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks©
(194143=10)
Profits and Profit Margins
UL, L
L, 1, L
Corporate profits after taxes
16. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
18. Constant
(1972) dollars
{Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L,C,L
Corporate profits after taxes
with IVA and CCA 1
79. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
L, L, L
L, C, L
80, Constant
{1972) dollars
{Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
22. Ratio,
profits {after
taxes) to total
corporate
domestic income
(Percent)
1978
January
February ....
March
April
May
June
... .
July
August
September
October
November . . . .
December
183.6
186,6
193.2
96.86
100.64
101.08
9CL4
67^2
63^4
47!5
10.'3
1.93
0.66
0,76
0.55
2.28
0.29
1.77
0,71
1.18
1.47
200.9
202.7
205.2
101.93
101.16
101.77
93*. 1
68!e
63*. 1
4o!8
i)l6.*5
2.46
0.08
214.1
209.6
206.2
104.20
103.29
E>105.45
94.' 6
68! 5
67^6
49! 6
10*2
-0.75
1,48
1.47
1.02
4.17
3.85
0.88
1.79
201.6
201,0
203.2
101.89
101.19
104.66
90*.9
65,*6
59^2
43.' 1
9.*9
0.84
0.20
1.11
210.2
216.4
D222.8
103.81
100.96
100.57
97^2
69.*2
61* .'6
43^8
l6.*6
2.01
1,46
0.38
221.9
218.1
206.4
99.05
98.76
99.29
104.*3
B73.2
7<X5
49.'9
10.*2
-0.05
-0.02
100.18
97.75
96.23
71 !s
m79.7
B)55;4
l6.'6
0.25
204.1
202.7
202.9
49.'o
10.2
r38.'e
9.'7
1.37
-1.61
-3.08
[H)2.03
1977
January
February . ,
March
April
May
June
-0.64
1)4.80
1.42
0.25
0.61
-0.85
July
August
September
-0.07
October
November
December
0.18
1.80
2.36
0.48
0.65
1.11
204.7
203.8
210.9
93.74
94.28
93.82
DIOS.'O
71 is
January
February
March
1.49
0.27
1.03
1.66
1.63
1.15
219.7
219.9
219.8
90.25
88.98
88.82
rlOZ.'i
T68.3
April
May
June . . .
1.45
0.26
0.92
0.92
220.3
217,8
222.1
92.71
97.41
"97,75
1.08
0.32
10X6
71.5
1978
3
r57.'(3
July
August ....
September
October
November
December . ,
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are indicated by(H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by [R). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "N A", not available.
^ Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14,29, and 30. JIVA means inventory valuation adjustment; CCA means capital consumption adjustment.
Scries is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span. 3Average for
June 6, 13, 20, and 27. ^Average for June 7, 14, 21, and 28.
JUNE 1978
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS —Con.
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Qj PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.
Minor Economic
Process
Profits and Profit Margins-Con.
U,L,L
L, L, L
81. Ratio,
profits (after
taxes) with IVA
and CCA to
corp. domestic
income1
15. Prof its (after
taxes) per dollar
of sales, all
manufacturing
corporations
(Percent)
(Cents)
Timing Class
Year
and
month
Cash Flows
L L, L
L, L, L
Unit Labor Costs and Labor Share
L,L,L
17. Ratio, price
Net cash flow, corporate
to unit labor
cost index,
34. Current
manufacturing
35. Constant
(1972) dollars
dollars
(1967=100)
{Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
Lg, Lg, Lg
63. Index of
unit labor cost,
private business
sector
(1967=100)
Lg, Lg, Lg
68. Labor cost
per unit of real
gross domestic
product, nonfinancial
corporations
(Dollars)
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
62. Index of
labor cost per
unit of output,
manufacturing
64. Compensation of employees as a percent
of national
income
(1967=100)
(Percent)
1976
January
February
March
6.*9
s.'s
121.9
122.7
122.4
15KO
109.'3
165J
0.870
143.9
143.1
143.8
75!7
April
May
June
6.' 8
Ds.'e
122.4
123.0
123.5
154!6
11CL3
167!l
0.880
144.7
144.5
144.8
75^7
July
August
September
7J
B!S
E>124.4
124.3
123.3
156\2
11CL2
169!i
0.892
144.5
144.7
146.7
75^9
October
November
December
6J
5^0
123.1
123.0
123.5
153!o
ioe!3
173^0
0.916
147.4
147.9
148.4
76^6
January
February
March
5*.9
5.' 3
122.1
121.5
122.3
160.*7
n<x5
175.*2
0.930
150.8
152.6
152.8
76^5
April
May
June
6.*6
5.' 5
123.1
123.6
123.2
167,*6
E>113.'8
178.*4
0.943
153.4
153.9
154.6
76^6
H>7'.5
s'.o
123.6
123.8
123.7
167.'6
ni.'2
179.*7
0.949
154.5
154.4
155.1
75.'8
6.7
5.4
123.0
122.9
122.1
[0)169.0
no!i
182.'l
0,964
157.0
157.7
159.4
75.'9
5. '6
5.0
120.2
r119.8
H19.5
r!68.0
r!07.8
D189.'7
E>1.002
163.1
r165.0
Drl66.4
|H>r77.3
1977
July
August
September
October
November
December
...
1978
January
February
March
...
r!21.3
p!22.2
April
May
June
r!65.6
p165.6
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Current high values are indicated byH); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by [R>. Series numbers are ^identification only^and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs
of these series are shown on pages 16,30,and31.
1
IVA means inventory valuation adjustment; CCA means capital consumption adjustment.
KCII
JUNE 1978
69
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS-Con.
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
R9 MONEY A N D C R E D I T
Minor Economic
Process
Velocity of Money
Money
L, L, L
Timing Class
85. Change in
money supply
(M1)
Year
and
month
(Percent)
102. Change
in money
supply plus
time deposits
at commercial
banks (M2)
(Percent)
L, L, L
L, L, L
L,C,U
104. Change in total liquid assets
Monthly
data
Smoothed
data 1
(Percent)
(Percent)
L, L, L
105. Money
supply (M1)
in 1972
dollars
106. Money
supply (M2)
in 1972
dollars
(Bil.dol.)
(Bil.dol.)
c,c,c
107. Ratio,
gross national
product to
money supply
(Ml)
(Ratio)
Credit Flows
C, Lg, C
L, L, L
108. Ratio,
personal income
to money supply
(M2)
33. Net change
in mortgage debt
held by financial
institutions and
life insurance
companies
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ratio)
1976
January
February
March
0.48
0.68
0.47
1.01
1.27
0.68
0.88
0.88
0.67
0.99
0.92
0.82
222.0
223.1
223.6
503.3
508.8
511.0
5.547
1,978
1.971
1.971
49.33
49.21
57.10
April
May
June
0.73
0.60
0.07
0.94
0.78
0.42
0.85
0.89
0.70
0.80
0.80
0.81
224.2
224.2
223.4
513.3
514.3
514.3
5.588
1.969
1.966
1.965
49.75
43.73
46.74
July
August
September
0.20
0.56
0.33
0.74
0.84
0.92
0.92
0.73
0.84
0.82
0.81
0.81
223.0
223.2
223.0
516.0
517.9
520.5
5.652
1.970
1.964
1.957
54.76
52.52
50.71
October
November
December
1.08
0.16
0.64
|H>1.28
0.91
1.04
1.04
0.73
0.74
0.85
0.87
0.85
224.5
224.3
224.8
525.1
528.6
532.0
5.643
1.950
1.956
1.961
55.18
66.28
64.81
January
February
March
0.74
0.44
0.63
0.92
0.76
0.80
0.95
1.13
0.85
0.82
0.87
0.96
224.7
223.5
223.6
532.6
531.5
532.4
5.721
1.948
1.964
1.977
53.69
58.24
71.41
April
May
June
1.16
0.12
0.59
0.90
0.46
0.75
0.91
0.62
0.71
0.97
0.88
0.77
224.3
223.3
223.5
532.7
532.2
533.6
5.791
1.974
1.975
1.969
81.41
84.26
[H)96.78
July
August
September
0.99
0.52
0.73
1.12
0.64
rO.75
1.11
0.97
1.06
0.78
0.87
0.99
225.0
225.3
226.1
537.8
539.2
541.1
5.816
1.966
1.966
1.967
76.87
85.91
r94.12
October
November
December
rO.93
rO.06
rO,69
0.82
rO.49
rO.52
0)1.26
1.06
rO.83
1.07
H>1.11
rl.09
0)227.4
r226.6
r227.2
r543.8
r544.1
[H)r544.6
r5.846
rl.979
rl.992
r2.007
r88.49
88.43
r95.09
rO.86
r-0.06
0.29
rO.79
rO.39
rO.46
rl.07
rO.70
rO.84
rl.02
rO.93
rO.87
r227.3
r225.7
r224.6
r544.5
r543.2
r541.4
[H}r5.863
rl.995
rl.998
r2.016
r80.89
77.26
r91.34
E>rl.58
pO.66
2
0.60
rO.96
pO.65
2
0.79
rl.08
pO.92
rO.87
pO.91
r226.2
p225.4
r542.0
p540.2
r2.022
E>p2.029
p84.66
(NA)
.
...
1977
1978
January
February
March
April .
May
June . .
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by (u). Current high values are indicated by(H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by (H). Series numbers are fur identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 14, 32, and 33.
Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.
2
FRASER
Average for weeks ended June 7, 14, and 21.
Digitized for
7fl
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B I
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS—Con.
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
Ql MONEY AND CREDIT-Con.
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Year
and
month
Credit Flows-Con.
L, L,L
112. Net change
in bank loans
to businesses
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Credit Difficulties
U L, L
L, L, L
113. Net
change in
consumer installment
debt
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
110. Total
private
borrowing
(Ann. rate,
mil. dol.)
L, L,L
14. Current
liabilities
of business
failures@
(Mil. dol.)
Interest Rates
Bank Reserves
L, L,L
94. Member
bank borrowing from the
Federal
Reserve®
39. Delinquency 93. Free
rate, 30 days
reserves (u)
and over, consumer installment loans
(Percent)
L, Lg, Lg
L, Lg, U
'L, U, U
(Mil. dol.)
(Mil. dol.)
C, Lg, Lg
119. Federal
funds rate@
(Percent)
114. Treasury
bill rate©
(Percent)
1976
January
February
March
11.59
4.00
-34.49
15.97
21.14
20.45
177,260
257.07
211.76
247.65
2.49
2.46
2.45
130
-62
378
79
76
58
4.87
4.77
4.84
4.85
5.05
April
May
June
-36.50
4.43
6.04
22.93
21.13
18.41
206.42
233.28
373 64
2.34
2.41
4 82
4 88
121
120
5.29
5.18
2 40
45
261
_3
44
185,504
5 48
5 44
July
August
September
-10.19
-5 72
7 16
17.36
18 34
21 97
204 444
305 55
263 96
250 32
2 39
2 39
2 36
-53
193
212
123
104
75
5 31
5 29
5 25
5 28
5 15
5 08
October
November
December
10 88
229,796
183.57
277 60
200 44
123
280
3.47
13.09
19 61
29 30
2 40
no
66
84
62
5 03
4 95
4 65
4 93
4 81
4 35
7 88
15 76
9 48
25 87
23 81
35 65
252 716
168 54
194 20
248 20
2 37
2 37
2 37
433
-1 14
1 55
61
79
lin
4 61
4 68
4 60
4 66
A
C.Q
A
£1
2 53
207 27
473 89
305 86
2 40
2 43
2 38
-62
72
-"1AQ
73
200
262
4 73
5 35
A
CA
268 212
2.41
12
-872
-443
336
1 071
5.42
c on
fi 14
9.70
2.53
[H)2 19
4 96
1977
January
February
March
April
May
June
13.91
34 78
31 86
29 06
July
August
September
-0.65
13 04
5 93
29.57
31 81
28 21
0)307 036
October
November
December
11 70
14 05
2*35
31 51
34 24
32.83
307 016
1 1 93
26.50
rl 9 73
29 09
31.93
8.18
577.82
338 25
[fl) 96 99
115 69
200 29
168.32
2 34
2 36
634
rn\ i -310
C
4 94
c on
QQ
5.15
c en
c 77
1 Q
RdO
p. AJ
C. Cl
C.
-VDR
C
1C
2.36
-384
558
6.56
6.06
2 42
-176
-272
481
405
6 70
6 45
0)6.46
fi 1?
2 41
2 24
flj\ _ Q Q n
1978
January
February
March
April . .
May
June
r22 18
tuNn'}? £?
101 17
p275,724
fu\ AQ Q?
AA
168 31
205.01
/ M A N
^INAJ
2.48
9
CNA"!
\"H)
£Q
1VINM;
MA ^
oo
•3/M
r-475
p-885
-926
con
ci
2
pi ,227
1 088
2
6.78
c. 70
6.89
1>7 36
2
7 57
3
6 31
6 43
6 71
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated byE); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by |fi). Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 33, 34, and 35.
Average for weeks ended June 7, 14, and 21.
June 2, 9, 16, 23, and 30.
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal Reserve BankIt
of St. Louis
2
Average for weeks ended June 7, 14, 21, and 28.
3
Average for weeks ended
71
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B
CYCLICAL INDICATORS BY ECONOMIC PROCESS -Con.
MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS .. '. ..
Q| MONEY AND CREDIT~Con.
Minor Economic
Process
Timing Class
Outstanding Debt
Interest Rates-Con.
., . .
Lg, Lg, Ig
C, Lg, Lg
U, Lg, Lg
116. Corporate
bond yields©
115. Treasury
bond yields®
117. Municipal
bondyields@
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
Year
and
month
Lg, Lg, Lg
Lg, Lg, Lg
11 8. Secondary 67. Bank rates
market yields
on short-term
onFHA
business loans *
mortgages©
®
(Percent)
(Percent)
Lg, Lg, Lg
109. Average
prime rate
charged by
banks®
(Percent)
Lg, Lg, Lg
66. Consumer
installment
debt
(Mil.dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
72. Commercial
and industrial
loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large
commercial
banks
(Mil.dol.)
Lg, Lg, Lg
95. Ratio,
consumer installment debt
to personal
income
(Percent)
1976
January
February
March
8.97
8.71
8.73
6.93
6.92
6.88
7.07
6.94
6.92
9.06
9.04
(NA)
7^54
7.00
6.75
6.75
161,283
163,045
164,749
120,242
120,575
117,701
12.15
12.18
12.22
April
May
June
8.68
9.00
8.90
6.73
7.01
6,92
6.60
6.87
6.87
8.82
9.03
9.05
7^44
6.75
6.75
7.20
166,660
168,421
169,955
114,659
115,028
115,531
12.26
12.31
12.38
July
August
SeptRmber
8.76
8.59
8.37
6.85
6.82
6.70
6.79
6.61
6.51
8.99
8.93
8.82
7!80
7.25
7.01
7.00
171,402
172,930
174,761
114,682
114,205
114,802
12.36
12.41
12.47
October
November
December
8.25
8.17
7.90
6.65
6.62
6.38
6.30
6.29
5.94
8.55
8.45
8.25
7^28
6.78
6.50
6.35
175,852
177,486
179,928
115,610
116,517
116,806
12.43
12,39
12.41
January
February
March
7.96
8.18
8.33
6.68
7,16
7.20
5.87
5.89
5.89
8.40
8.50
8.58
7^48
7.50
6.25
6.25
6.25
182,084
184,068
187,039
117,463
118,776
119,566
12.52
12.46
12.48
April
May
June
8.30
8.38
8.08
7.13
7.17
6.99
5.73
5.75
5.62
8.57
(NA)
8.74
7.52
7.37
7.93
6.25
6.41
6.75
189,937
192,592
195,014
119,777
120,459
121,618
12.58
12.69
12.79
July
August
September
8.12
8.06
8.12
6.98
7.01
6.94
5.63
5.62
5.51
8.74
8.74
8.72
7.96
7.87
8.22
6.75
6.83
7,13
197,478
200,129
202,480
121,564
122,651
123,145
12.83
12.92
12.97
October
November
December
8.21
8.26
8.39
7.08
7,16
7.24
5.64
5.49
5.57
8.78
8.78
8.91
8.35
8.66
8.77
7.52
7.75
7.75
205,106
207,959
210,695
124,120
125,291
125,487
12.95
12.98
12.98
8.70
8.70
8.70
7.51
7.60
7.63
5.71
5.62
5.61
9.11
(NA)
9.29
8.70
8.95
7.93
8.00
8.00
213,119
215,780
219,848
126,481
128,689
r!30,333
13.11
13.20
13.27
8.88
7.74
E)223,S67
r!32,181
H>pl 34,983
3
136, 747
IH>pl3.32
(NA)
1977
1978
January
February
March
April
May ...
Jung . . .
B> 9 . 0 0
a
9.12
Htyft
5.80
E> 36.03
6.20
9.37
E>9.67
i>8.98
(NA)
fH>8'°°
"8^49
(NA)
July . . .
August
September
October
November
December
. .
NOTK: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©, Current high values are indicated by[R); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity, current low values are indicated by |R), Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect series relationships or
order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16,35, and 36. 1 Beginning February 1977, data are monthly and represent, the banking system.
for weeks ended June 2, 9, 16, and 23. 3Average for weeks ended June 1, 8, 15, and 22_ ^Average for June 1 thrmigh 29.
Average for weeks ended June 7, 14, and 21.
2
Average
3
72
JUNE 1978
ItCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE
Q| DIFFUSION INDEXES
Year
and
month
950. Twelve leading
indicator components
(series 1,3, 8, 12,19,
20,29,32,36,92,104,
951. Four roughly
coincident indicator
components {series
41,47,51,57)
952. Six lagging
indicator components
(series 62, 70, 72, 91,
95, 109)
961. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing (21
industries)
105)
962. Initial claims for
State unemployment
insurance, week including the 12th
(51 areas)
9-month
span
963. Number of employees on private
nonagricultural pay rolls
(172 industries)
1-month
span
6-month
span
76.5
69.6
70.6
78.5
77.9
74.1
83.1
81.7
79.9
22.5
29.4
17.6
79.4
66.6
54.1
79.4
70.9
68.6
66.7
29.4
38.2
17.6
62.7
56.9
57.3
47.1
69.8
57.0
57.3
63.7
61.9
71.4
71.4
90.2
29.4
90.2
37.3
88.2
88.2
42.4
69.5
73.0
69.8
73.5
78.5
100.0
97.6
47.6
88.1
92.9
81.0
39.2
25.5
49.0
74.5
70.6
68.6
75.0
73.5
82.3
89.0
86.6
83.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
42.9
57.1
73.8
69.0
69.0
95.2
68.6
23.5
37.3
57.8
53.9
74.5
77.6
68.6
63.7
80.5
71.5
68.0
58.3
83.3
83.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
54.8
57.1
57.1
64.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
80.4
24.5
82.4
65.7
82.4
68.6
65.7
50.0
61.3
68.3
68.3
72.1
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
83.3
100.0
100.0
100.0
81.0
52.4
47.6
76.5
41.2
90.2
70.6
100.0
r78.4
p86.3
59.9
75.9
73.8
r83.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
76.2
33.3
47.1
66.9
70.1
r85.2
p80.2
91.7
r97.6
r54.9
r74.4
•66.7
387.5
r57.1
P80.4
p2.4
(NA)
r68.9
p55.8
1-month
span
1 -mo nth
span
6-month
span
1 -month
Span
9-month
span
100.0
100.0
100.0
50.0
33.3
75.0
16.7
66.7
58.3
73.8
33.3
31.0
90.5
64.3
59.5
94.1
41.2
10.8
100.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
83.3
83.3
83.3
83.3
11.9
92.9
23.8
52.4
19.0
11.9
52.9
56.9
50.0
66.7
75.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
66.7
83.3
38.1
23.8
23.8
40.5
50.0
52.4
100.0
100.0
100.0
66.7
41.7
50.0
83.3
83.3
83.3
69.0
73.8
54.8
100.0
100.0
100.0
66.7
75.0
91.7
83.3
83.3
7.1
100.0
100.0
75.0
75.0
100.0
100.0
83.3
83.3
100.0
75.0
75.0
75.0
6-month
span
1 -month
span
6-month
span
1 -month
span
January
February
March
58.3
66.7
70.8
75.0
91.7
79.2
100.0
100.0
100.0
April
May
June
50.0
54.2
54.2
75.0
66.7
62.5
100.0
62-. 5
100.0
July
August
September
41.7
37.5
33.3
50.0
54.2
66.7
75.0
75.0
100.0
October
November
December
54.2
58.3
58.3
50.0
58.3
75.0
100.0
100.0
January
February
March
29.2
50.0
83.3
83.3
75.0
62.5
April
May
June
54.2
37.5
66.7
50.0
75.0
54.2
July
August
September
50.0
79.2
50.0
62.5
66.7
70.8
October
November
December
70.8
75.0
54.2
r75.0
1976
75.0
50.0
25.0
0.0
1977
25.0
58.3
66.7
66.7
9.5
4.8
23.8
r71.4
r88.1
75.0
80.5
1978
January
February
March
.
r41.7
April
May
June
66.7
MO.O
54.2
45.8
1
66.7
25.0
50.0
100.0
100.0
2
100.0
100.0
2
3
0.0
p64,3
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on
the 2d month, 6-month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span. Diffusion indexes 961, 962, and 963 are computed from seasonally adjusted components; indexes 950,951, and 952 are computed from the components of the composite indexes. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 37.
1
Excludes series 12 and 36 for which data are not yet available,
2
Excludes series 57 for which data are not yet available.
3
Excludes series 70 and 95 for which data are not yet available.
ItCII JUNE 1978
73
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE-Con.
[B DIFFUSION INQEXES-Con.
Year
and
month
964. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries (35 industries)
1 -month
span
9-month
span
965. Newly approved
capital appropriations,
deflated, The
Conference Board1
(17 industries)
1 -quarter
span
4-U moving
avg.
966. Index of industrial
production {24
industries)
1-month
span
6-month
span
967. Index of industrial
materials prices ®
(13 industrial materials)
969. Profits, manufacturing, Citibank
(about 1,000 corporations)
968. Index of stock
prices, 500 common
stocks® (59-65
industries) 3
1 -month
span
9-month
span
1 -month
span
9-month
span
1 -quarter
span
4-quarter
span ®
1976
January
February
March
67.1
74.3
65.7
91.4
94.3
97.1
56
April
May
June
54.3
48.6
45.7
80.0
91.4
84.3
62
71.4
48.6
51.4
82.9
78.6
88.6
44
61.4
60.0
71.4
82.9
85.7
82.9
59
January
February
March
60.0
48.6
77.1
91.4
88.6
77.1
50
April
May
June
31.4
60.0
45.7
82.9
82.9
82.9
74
July
August
September
37.1
68.6
65.7
85.7
85.7
80.0
42
October
November
December
62.9
65.7
65.7
88.6
88.6
94.3
48
40.0
71.4
54.3
p88.6
p68
July
August
September
. ...
October
November
December
83.3
83.3
83.3
65.4
61.5
73.1
65.4
65.4
80.8
100.0
83.1
53.1
90.8
93.8
95.4
63
"57
68.8
83.3
64.6
68.8
66.7
70.8
65.4
65.4
69.2
69.2
73.1
65.4
31.5
41.5
50.8
89.2
93.8
64.6
55
*55
66.7
68.8
52.1
70.8
70.8
75.0
73.1
34.6
34.6
57.7
61.5
76.9
80.0
43.1
56.2
45.4
56.5
62.9
53
*54
52.1
62.5
60.4
66.7
77.1
83.3
50.0
61.5
65.4
76.9
73.1
69.2
15.4
50.8
91.9
57.3
56.5
48.4
55
*57
50.0
58.3
54.2
81.2
91.7
85.4
69.2
73.1
80.8
57.7
50.0
50.0
46,0
27.4
43.5
33.0
43.5
54.8
55
*56
37.5
75.0
58.3
83.3
75.0
83.3
34.6
34.6
15.4
50.0
46.2
46.2
49.2
37.0
46.0
54.8
29.0
17.7
60
*53
60.4
72.9
58.3
87.5
79.2
66.7
34.6
50.0
50.0
3
45.8
29.2
41.7
56.5
23.4
15.3
26.6
27.4
22.6
53
p58
62.5
43.8
62.5
66.7
58.3
. 70.8
70.8
r70.8
r70.8
50.0
37.5
57.7
3
45.8
62.5
75.0
11.3
66.9
46.8
19.4
16.1
23.7
61
45.8
r50.0
r79,2
r75.0
p75.0
8.1
30.6
50.0
M9.1
52
"e>9
*65
*64
*73
1977
3
3
3
9
3
*72
*73
*73
1978
January
February
March
April
May
June
r62.9
p48.6
r79.2
p89.6
69.2
34.6
46.2
3
50.0
61.5
80.8
S
3 3
66.7
66.7
90.7
90.7
July
August
September
October ,
November , ,
December
NOTE: Figuros are the percent of series components rising. {Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are centered within the spans: 1-month indexes are placed on
the 2d month, 6-month indexes on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes on the 6th month of the span; t-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, 3-quarter indexes on
the 1st month of the 3d quarter, and 4-quarter indexes on the 2d month of the 3d quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index 968, which requires no adjustment, and
index 969, which is adjusted as an index (1-quarterspan only). Unadjusted series are indicated by®, The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 38.
*This Is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference
Board.
2
Baaed on 65 components through November 1976, on 62 components through March 1978, and on 59 components thereafter. Component
data are not shown in table C2 but are available from the source agency.
3
Based on 12 components (excluding print cloth).
"Based on 58 components
9
Average for June 6, 13, 20, and 27.
74
JUNE 1978
KCII
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C I
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Con,
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
a. Actual
expenditures
(1-Qspan)
c. Early
anticipations
b. Later
anticipations
(1-Qspan)
(1-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
{4-Q span)
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
Anticipated
Actual
973. Net sales, manufacturing
and trade1 ®
972. Net profits, manufacturing
and trade1®
971. New orders, manufacturing1®
970. Business expenditures for new plant and
equipment {18 industries)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter ,
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
38.9
44.4
38.9
36.1
36.1
41.7
50.0
61.1
66.7
52.8
66.7
61.1
50
54
64
71
72
59
70
73
52
53
58
66
68
58
66
67
57
58
66
70
75
62
73
74
66.7
80.6
72.2
47.2
61.1
77.8
72.2
63.9
75.0
61.1
66.7
83.3
80
80
78
78
82
84
88
86
76
74
72
74
76
80
84
82
82
81
80
80
82
84
90
87
66.7
75.0
88.9
44.4
61.1
72.2
69.4
58.3
66.7
66.7
66.7
72.2
80
83
82
82
80
86
88
84
71
74
74
76
78
80
84
82
80
81
84
85
82
86
90
86
61.1
77.8
69.4
61.1
66.7
61.1
83
82
83
88
73
79
82
84
84
86
87
92
1976
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1977
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1978
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
974. Number of employees,
manufacturing and trade1®
975. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade1®
976. Selling prices, manufacturing1 ©
Actual
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
Anticipated
Anticipated
977. Selling prices, wholesale
trade1 ®
978. Selling prices, retail
trade1 ®
Actual
Actual
Anticipated
Anticipated
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
44
44
48
52
53
48
54
54
58
52
56
57
64
54
50
54
81
78
78
78
86
76
68
74
80
79
81
81
87
74
70
76
80
84
86
88
88
75
72
79
57
58
58
58
56
60
62
60
62
65
68
69
60
64
70
68
80
82
80
82
75
78
80
80
84
80
80
80
82
82
84
86
86
92
86
81
82
84
86
60
59
61
62
59
60
61
59
74
72
74
75
65
68
72
70
86
86
87
87
78
81
86
82
87
86
88
90
86
86
84
90
86
92
92
86
84
89
88
62
59
60
62
76
67
70
73
87
82
84
87
89
91
90
88
92
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
(4-Q span)
1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1976
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1977
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter,.
Fourth quarter
1978
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
84
90
87
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising. (Half of the unchanged components are counted as rising.) Data are placed on the terminal month of the span. Series a re seasonally adjusted except those, indicated by © , that appear to contain no seasonal movement. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 39.
This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. Dun and Bradstreet diffusion indexes are based on surveys of about 1,400 business executives.
JUNE 1978
75
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Con.
HI SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change
1978
1977
Diffusion index components
October
December
November
February
January
Aprilr
March
Mayp
961. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING '
{Average weekly hours)
+
All manufacturing industries . .
Percent rising of 21 components
+
40.5 °
40.5
39.6
(81)
(52)
(48)
(0)
40.8
40.1 +
39.5
40.2 +
40.3
39.4 +
41.1
40.2
39.5
40.2
39.4
37.7
40.4
+
+
39.9
(76)
r40.6
+
40.7
40.3
(57)
(98)
(2)
Durable goods industries:
Ordnonco and accessories
Lumber and wood products. .
Furniture and ftxturss
,
. . . +
+
+
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
+
+
41.1 +
41.3 o
Fabricated motal products
Machinery oxeopt electrical . . .
+
+
41.1
42.0
o
+
o
+
+
+
+
39.'8 +
r41 . 1
r39.9 +
37.9
39.4
39.9
40.3
40.0
39.8
40.1
39.4
39.3
41.8
41.3 +
41.6
41.4
40.3
41.0
+
40.9
41.5
+
o
r41.6 +
r41 . 5
42.3
41.4 o
41.7
41.4
41.1
41.9
+
o
41.5
41.9
40.3
40.9
+
+
40.7
41.7
+
+
r41 . 3 +
r42.2 o
41.5
42.2
41.1
42.0
40.3
42.7
40.2
42.5
+
40.3
42.2
39.5
41.1
+
39.6
40.6
+
+
r40.4
r41 . 7 +
40.3
41.9
40.2
41.6
+
+
40.6
39.1
40,4
39.0
o
40.4
38.9
39.8
38.0
+
+
40.3
38,3
+
+
r41.1 +
r39.2 +
41.2
39.3
40.7
39,1
o
39.5 +
38.2 +
39.8
38.8
39.7
38.3
39.1
37.5
+
+
39.6
38.5
+
+
40.0
39.0
o
40.0
38,9
39,7
38.7
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
+
+
40.5 +
35.6 +
40.7
35.7 +
40.6
35.8
40.0
33.9
+
40.3
35.2
+
+
40.6
+
r35.9 +
40.7
36.1
40.3
35.7
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
+
42.8
37.9 o
42.7
37.9
+
o
42.9
37.9
42.2
37.4
42.4
37.5
+
+
r43.4 o
r38.1 o
43.4
38.1
42.8
37.5
+
41.6 +
43.2 +
41.7 o
43.3 +
41.7
43,9
41.6
43.6
41.7
43.4
+
+
r44.0
41.9
43.8
41.8
43,4
+
+
40.9 o
37.7 +
40.9
37.8
40.7
37.2
39.8
36.6
39.4
36.6
+
+
r40.6 +
41.1
38.2
40.7
37.3
66,681 +
69,016 +
Electrical equipment and supplies
Transportation equipment
.,
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
o
Nondurable goods industries:
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
...
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
....
.. .
Rubber and plastic products, n.e.c
Leather and leather products
+
+
+
+
o
964. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIESl
(Millions of dollars)
+
All durable goods industries
Percent rising of 35 components
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
.,
Machinery except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment . .
Other durable goods industries
63,556 -
62,821 +
(63)
(66)
66,165 (66)
63,335 +
(40)
42.1
37.4
+
2
(71)
70,033 (63)
(54)
69,473
(49)
+
8,696 +
7,509 +
9,268 +
7,635
9,347 +
7,447 +
9,857 +
7,597 +
9,946 +
8,019 -
10,228
7,826
+
+
+
10,308
8,778 -
10,717
8 S 005
..
+
+
10,762 +
7,564 +
10,797 +
8,059
11,210 8,000 +
10,563 +
8,434 +
11,482 +
8,460 -
11,573
8,319
+
11,536 +
8,626 -
11,882
8,371
....
+
+
17,117 11,908 -
15,247 +
11,815 +
17,569
12,592
14,749 +
12,135 +
16,392 +
12,382 +
18,085
12,985
+
17,721
13,064
17,509
12,989
-
-
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+)s rising, (o)s unchanged, and H - falling. The "r" indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
*Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are all included in the
totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here.
76
JUNE 1978
ItUI
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Con.
|Q SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Con.
1978
1977
Diffusion index components
December
November
October
January
Marchr
February
Aprilr
MayP
966. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION '
(1967=100)
+
All industrial production
Percent rising of 24 components1
Lumber, clay, and glass
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous manufactures
Nondurable manufactures:
Textiles, apparel, and leather
Textile mill products
. .
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
.
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products.
Foods and tobacco
Foods
Tobacco products
Mining:
Coal
..
Oil and gas extraction
Metal, stone, and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals
+
139,7
(71)
(79)
143.7
(90)
116.4
140.1
150.1
144.0
116.2
163.4
o
+
+
+
rl50.1
146.4
118.4
163.5
+
+
+
+
151.5
149.5
126.5
167.9
+
+
+
+
152.3
151.6
130.1
168.6
+
+
153.2
152.8
128.8
169.0
152.1 +
138.1 +
152.2
138.5
+
-
r!52.6
135.5
+
+
154.2
136.5
+
-
155.6
136.4
+
+
146.6
152.5 +
146.4
153.0
+
-
r!50.1
151.8
+
149.5
153.7
+
149.0
153.9
+
+
143,7
125.8
137.1
118.6
+
r!36.4
121.1
136.1
122.8
+
137.0
+
70.9
+
+
+
+
+
151.7
147,3
122.2
164.7
148.0 +
135.7 +
152,8
137.5
-t-
+
+
146.6
151.0 +
146.0
151,8
+
+
+
142.4
129.0
141.6
125.1
+
+
+
+
+
149.7
146.0
122.0
163.1
+
(79)
142.9
113.0
139.3
148.9 +
144,2 +
124.3
162.2 +
+
+
•f
+
+
+
(50)
(46)
140.9
106.5
138.1
111.0
136.4 +
+
+
+
+
+
77.0 +
139.2
106.2
r!36.9
111.2
135.8
. . . . +
+
o
113.5
133.8 +
+
138.8
107.4
136.9
+
+
. ..
....
139.3
(58)
(67)
Durable manufactures:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and allied goods
Nonelectrical machinery . . .
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Instruments . . .
138.9 +
78.1
77.3
74.5
73.0
+
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
154.9
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
71.9
+
+
138.6 +
127.5 +
139.9
129.9
+
-
r!43.9
r!28.3
+
+
144.9
129.1
+
-
146.1
128.5
+
+
147.0
129.0
183.1
140.5
238.5
184.4
139.7
238.7
+
r!83,7
139.0
240.0
+
+
+
184.9
141.2
242.7
+
+
+
186.0
141.8
247.0
+
142.9
+
183.0 +
139.3 +
240.1
137.3 +
113.8 f
139.4
117.5
+
+
139.3
113.4
-*+
r!40.8
r!77.7
+
141.2
115.3
+
142.2
141.4
119.4
140.6
117.8
54.8
121.1
r!20.4
+
+
78.4
118.4 +
+
-
56.5
+
124.5
+
+
129.7
126.8
84.8
+
104.3 +
126.5 +
121.4
130.0
-
119.9
r!29.1
127.6
128.2
-
122.1
126.8
137.9
125.7 +
137.8
126.2
182.3 +
141.4
236.3 +
80.0
128.1
t-
127.2
140.4
120.6
74.6
+
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
+
o
132.9
126.8
(NA)
(NA)
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) ~ unchanged, and (-} - falling. The "r " indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
2
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.
JUNE 1978
77
CYCLICAL INDICATORS
C
DIFFUSION INDEXES AND RATES OF CHANGE—Con.
Q SELECTED DIFFUSION INDEX COMPONENTS: Basic Data and Directions of Change-Con.
Diffusion index components
1977
October
1978
February
January
December
November
March
May
April
June1
967. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price index (1967^100)
+
204.7 -
(50)
Percent rising of 13 components
203.8 +
s
(38)
210.9 +
219.7
+
o
(35)
(69)
(58)
219.9
219.8 +
(46)
220.3 -
217.8 +
(62)
(50)
222.1
(81)
Dollars
Copper scrap
(pound)
(kilogram). .
+
0.392 0.864
0.388 +
0.855
0.431 +
0.950
Lead scrap
(pound)
(kilogram). .
o
0.113 +
0.249
0.120 +
0.265
0.123
0.271
(U.S. ton). . (metric ton). .
50.000 55.115
Tin
(pound). . +
(kilogram). .
Zinc
(pound). .
(kilogram). .
(yard)
(meter). .
Steel scrap
Burlap
Cotton, 12~market average
Print cloth average
0.460
1.014
+
0.472 +
1.041
0.490 +
1.080
0.498 +
1.098
0.501
1.105
- 0.122
0.269
- 0.120
0.265
o
0.120 0.265
0.119 0.262
0.108 o
0.238
0.108
0.238
46.000 + 59.000
65.036
50.706
+ 72.000
79.366
o 72.000
79.366
o
72.000 +
79.366
77.000 84.877
71.400 + 73,250
80.743
78.704
5.674 +
12.509
5.948 13.113
5.766
12.712
-
5.526
12.183
- 5.512
12.152
-
5.262 11.601
4.980 +
10.979
5.264 + 5.525
11.605
12.180
-
0.318 0.701
0.308 0.679
0.305
0.672
o
0.305
0.672
-
0.302
0.666
-
0.292 0.644
0.290 o
0.639
0.290 +
0.639
0.298
0.657
+
0.240 0.262
0.212 +
0.232
0.229
0.250
+
0.234
0.256
o
0.234
0.256
-
0.226 0,247
0.216 0.236
0.184 +
0.201
0.185
0.202
(pound). . o
(kilogram). .
0.492 1.085
0.480 +
1.058
0.484 +
1.067
0.513
1.131
+
0.530
1.168
+
0.555 1.224
0.546 +
1.204
0.575 1.268
0.572
1.261
(yard)
(meter). .
Wool tops
o
0.582
0.636
(NA)
(NA)
0.475
1.047
-
-
0.532
0.582
+
0.533
0.583
-
0.531
0.581
o
0.531 +
0.581
0.552 +
0.604
0.561 +
0.614
0.575
0.629
(pound)., o
(kilogram). .
2.580 +
5.688
2.592 +
5.714
2.600
5.732
-
2.592
5.714
-
2.580
5.688
o
2.580 0
5.688
2.580 o
5.688
2.580 o
5.688
2.580
5.688
(pound)
(kilogram). .
-
0.358 +
0.789
0.392 +
0.864
0.425
0.937
+
0.500
1.102
-
0.488
1.076
-
0.468 +
1.032
0.475 0
1.047
0.475 +
1.047
0.482
1.063
{100 pounds). o
(100 kilograms)..
28.500 o
62.831
o 28.500
62.831
o 28.500
62.831
-
Rubber
(pound). . (kilogram). .
0.444 0.979
0.440 0.970
0.425
0.937
+
+
0.449
0.990
+
0.454 1.001
0.442 +
0.974
Tallow
(pound)
+
(kilogram). .
0.156
0.344
0.155 0.342
0.150
0.331
+ 0.160
0.353
+
0.173 +
0,381
0.177 +
0.390
Hides
.
Rosin
. .
28,500 o 28.500
62.831
62.831
0.437
0.963
+ 0.154
0.340
28.250 + 28.500 o
62.831
62.280
28.500 o 28.500
62.831
62.831
0.459 +
1.012
0.493
1.087
0.179 + 0.185
0.395
0.408
NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: {+} ~ rising, (o) " unchanged, and (-) - falling. The "r" indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.
1
Average for June 6, 13, 20, and 27.
a
Serles components are not seasonally adjusted. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3
Based on 12 components.
78
JUNE 1978
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME
Year
and
quarter
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars
200. Gross national product in current dollars
a. Total
c. Percent
change at
annual rate
b. Difference
a. Total
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.}
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
c. Percent
change at
annual rate
b. Difference
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
217. Per capita
GNP in 1972
dollars
213. Final sales
in 1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1,453.0
1,496.6
1,564.9
1,600.7
0.6
43.6
68.3
35.8
0.2
12.5
19.5
1,651.2
1,691.9
1,727.3
1,755.4
-29.9
9.5
1,169.8
1,188.2
1,220.7
1,229.8
50.5
4Q.7
35.4
28.1
13.2
10,2
8.6
6.7
1,256.0
,271.5
,283.7
,287.4
26.2
1,810.8
1,869.9
1,915.9
1,961.8
55.4
59.1
46.0
45.9
13.2
13.7
10.2
rl,995.3
r33.5
-9.6
6.4
11.4
3.0"
5,495
5,571
5,709
5 S 740
1,189.7
1,206.2
1,217.8
1,234.4
15.5
12.2
3.7
8.8
5.1
3.9
1.2
5,853
5,915
5,960
5,965
1,246.3
1,259.4
1,269.8
1,289.2
23.6
19.7
16.7
12.8
7.5
6.2
5.1
3.8
6,064
9,9
,311.0
,330.7
,347.4
,360.2
6,207
6,253
1,301.2
1,317.5
1,331.8
1,351.5
r7.0
H,360.3
rOJ
rO.O
r6,243
rl,345.6
18.4
32.5
9.1
1976
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1977
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
6,143
1978
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
GNP AND PERSONAL INCOME-Con.
Year
and
quarter
PERSONAL CONSUMPTiON EXPENDITURES
230. Total in current
dollars
Disposable personal income
224. Current dollars
225. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bit. dot.}
231. Total in 1972
dollars
232. Durable goods
in current dollars
233. Durable goods
in 1972 dollars
227. Per capita in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
dollars)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
{Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
{Ann. rate,
bil. dol.}
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
756.9
770.4
780.2
792.8
122.8
127,8
136.7
144.3
106.2
109.0
115.4
120.2
807.2
153.3
156.7
159.3
166.3
125.4
126.7
127.1
130.7
860.4
879.8
177.0
178.6
177.6
186.0
136.9
137.9
136.5
141.6
r877.9
H83.5
H37.4
1,025.4
1,092.2
1,095.7
1,124.1
828.8
871.1
859.1
870.2
4,018
936.5
965.9
995.1
4,062
1,024.1
1,153,3
1,174.1
1,193.3
1,222.6
881.5
887.8
890.7
901.5
4,107
4,130
4,135
4,177
1,056.0
1,078.5
1,102.2
1,139.0
1,252.4
1,292.5
1,323.8
1,368.3
908.4
924.5
934.4
955.8
4,202
4,268
4,305
4,394
1,172.4
1,194.0
1,218.9
1,259.5
850.4
1,402.1
r959.8
4,405
rl.282.4
3,893
4,084
1976
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
815.5
822.7
839.8
1977
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
854.1
1978
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 41 and 42.
JUNE 1978
79
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
A I
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT-Con.
|Q GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT
BM PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES-Con.
Year
and
quarter
236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bit. dol.)
238. Nondurable
goods in 1972
dollars
{Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
237. Services in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
239. Services in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
240. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
241. Total in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
242. Fixed investment, total, in
current dollars
243. Fixed investment, total, in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol)
1975
394,0
406.4
415.0
421.9
301.8
308,4
308.6
311.5
419.7
431.7
443.4
457.9
349.0
353.0
356.2
361,2
175.1
171.2
205.4
204.7
133.0
130.9
153.1
149.2
197.1
196,3
200.5
208.4
152.9
148.9
150.2
153.8
430.4
437.1
444.7
458.8
316.1
319.3
321.5
329.4
472.4
484.6
498.2
513.9
365.6
369.6
374.0
379.7
231,3
244.4
254.3
243.4
168.1
'175.2
179.4
169.2
216.8
226.1
232,8
244.3
158.4
163.1
165.6
171.0
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1978
466.6
474.4
481.8
499.9
329.7
330.0
332.4
342.7
528.8
541.1
559.5
573.7
383.8
386.3
391.4
395.5
271.8
294.9
303.6
306.7
186.7
197.2
200.8
197.5
258.0
273.2
280.0
293.2
177.0
184.0
185.1
188.7
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
r504,3
r337.9
r594.6
r402.6
r320.0
r204.2
r299.0
H89.4
First puarter
Second quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth quarter
1976
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quartor
1977
B
Year
and
quarter
GROSS PRIVATE
DOMESTIC INVEST -Con.
245. Change in
business inventories in current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Qj GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
30. Change in
business inventories in 1972
dollars
260. Total in
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
261. Total in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
262. Federal
Government in
current dollars
263. Federal
Government in
1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
(Aon. rate,
bil.dol.)
268. State and
local government
in current dollars
267. State and
local govern ment
in 1972 dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.}
(Ann. rote,
bil.dol.)
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1976
-22.0
-25.1
4.9
-3.6
-20.0
-18.0
2.9
-4.6
326.0
335.2
343.5
351.0
259.4
262.3
264.8
265.4
119.6
121,8
123.8
128.1
96.0
96.5
96.9
97.4
206.4
213.3
219,7
222.9
163.4
165.8
167.8
168.0
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
14.5
18.3
21.5
-0.9
9.7
12.1
13.8
-1.8
353.6
358.9
363.0
370.0
263.9
264.5
264.6
264.6
127.6
128.5
130.2
134.2
96.4
96.1
96.7
97.1
225.9
230,4
232.7
235,8
167.5
168,4
168.0
167,5
13.8
21.7
23.6
13.5
9.7
13.2
15.7
8.7
374.9
390.6
400.9
413.8
263.3
270.0
274.0
277.0
136.3
143.6
148.1
153.8
97.0
101.1
103.3
104.2
238.5
247.0
252.9
260,0
166.4
168.9
170,7
172,8
r21.1
r!4.7
416.6
r274.3
152.7
101.7
r263.8
172.6
1977
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1978
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 42,43, and 44.
80
JUNE 1978
ltd*
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT-Con.
NATIONAL INCOME
AND ITS COMPONENTS
FOREIGN TRADE
Year
and
quarter
252. Current
dollars
255. Constant
(1972) dollars
250. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
Imports of goods
and services
Exports of goods
and services
Net exports of
goods and services
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
256. Constant
(1972) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
220. National income in current
dollars
280. Compensation of
employees
257. Constant
(1972) dollars
253. Current
dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1975
First quarter ..,
Second quarter
Third quarter..,
Fourth quarter
15.4
24.3
20.8
20.8
20.5
24.5
22.7
22.3
147.4
142.7
146.9
152.1
89.7
87.4
89,7
92.8
131.9
118.3
126.1
131.3
69.2
62.9
67.0
70.6
1,156.0
1,191.4
1,244.9
1,275.7
904.6
914.4
936.7
965.6
10.2
10.2
16.8
16.4
17.0
13.8
153.9
160.6
168.4
168.5
93,1
95.2
97.9
96.9
143.7
150.4
160.6
165.6
76.3
78.9
80.9
83.1
1,321.0
1,353.9
1,379.6
1,402,1
999.6
1,024.9
1,046.5
1,074.2
-18.2
10.6
9.4
12.2
5.9
170.4
178.1
179.9
170.6
96.9
98.5
99.8
94,8
178.6
187.7
187.4
188.8
86.3
89.1
87.6
88.9
1,450.2
1,505.7
1,540.5
1,585.7
1,109.9
1,144.7
1,167.4
1,203.3
r-23.7
r4.0
r!80.5
r98.2
r204.2
r94.3
1,609.9
r1,243.8
1976
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
7.9
3.0
1977
-8.2
-9.7
-7.5
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1978
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
NATIONAL INCOME AND ITS COMPONENTS-Con.
Year
and
quarter
282. Proprietors'
income with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
284. Rental income
of persons with
capital consumption adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
286. Corporate
prof its with
inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
SAVING
288. Net interest
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
290. Gross saving
(private and government)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
292. Personal
saving
295. Business
saving
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
78.9
84.3
90.4
90.4
22.1
22.3
22.2
22,6
74.0
92.7
115.6
114.7
76.4
77.6
79.9
82.3
175.6
183.6
209.8
211.4
155.1
175.2
192.1
194.5
65.4
103.1
76.7
75.5
86.9
90.4
86.2
88.7
23.0
22.9
23.3
24,1
126.5
129.2
133.5
123.1
85.0
86.5
90.1
92.0
228.9
242.1
244.8
232.2
203.6
205.0
212.5
205.3
72.4
70.3
64.8
56.3
95.1
105.0
24.5
24.9
25.5
26.4
125.4
140.2
149.0
144.8
95.3
98.9
103.1
106.1
251.4
277.2
284.5
281.0
211.5
223.6
237.2
233.8
51.4
68.5
73.3
76.1
r!03.3
26.9
r!26.5
r!09.4
r287.9
r224.0
r85.7
1976
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1977
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
97.0
95.5
1978
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by <§). Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 45,46, and 47.
JUNE 1978
81
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT—Con.
Rj SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME
BRj SAVING-Con.
298. Government
surplus or deficit,
total
Year
and
quarter
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)
293. Personal
saving rate
(percent of disposable personal
income)
Percent of Gross National Product
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total
(Percent)
(Percent)
249. Residential
fixed investment
248. Nonresidential
fixed investment
247. Change in
business inventories
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
251. Net exports of
goods and services
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter . ...
Fourth quarter
-44.9
-94.7
-59.0
-58.7
6.4
9.4
7.0
6.7
64.5
64.5
63.6
64.0
10.3
9.9
9.5
9.4
3.3
3.2
3.3
3.6
-1.5
-1.7
0.3
-0.2
1.1
1.6
1.3
1.3
-47.1
-33.3
-32.4
-29.4
6.3
6.0
5.4
4.6
64.0
63.7
63.8
64.9
9.4
9.4
9.5
9.5
3.7
3;9
3.9
4.4
0.9
1.1
1.2
-0.1
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.2
-11.5
-14.9
-26.0
-28.9
4.1
5.3
5.5
5,6
64.7
63.9
63.6
64.2
9.8
9.8
9.8
9.9
4.5
4.9
4.8
5.1
0.8
1.2
1.2
0.7
-0,4
-0.5
-0.4
-0.9
r-21.7
6.1
64.3
10.0
5.0
rl.l
-1.2
1976
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
....
1977
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1978
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
^H SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Con.
Year
and
quarter
Percent of GNP-Con.
265. Federal Govt.
purchases of goods
and services
(Percent)
Percent of National Income
268. State and
local govt. purchases of goods
and services
(Percent)
64. Compensation of
employees
(Percent)
283. Proprietors'
income with IVA
and CCA 1
285. Rental income
of persons with
CCA 1
(Percent)
(Percent)
287, Corporate
profits with IVA
and CCA 1
289. Not interest
(Percent)
(Percent)
1975
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
8.2
8.1
7.9
8.0
14.2
14.3
14.0
13.9
78.3
76.8
75.2
75.7
7.7
7.6
7.5
7.6
13.7
13.6
13.5
13.4
75.7
75.7
75.9
76.6
7.5
7.7
7,7
7.8
13.2
13.2
13.2
13.3
7,7
13.2
6.8
7.1
7.3
7.1
1.9
1.9
1.8
1.8
6.4
7.8
9.3
9.0
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.2
6.3
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
9.6
9.5
9.7
8.8
6.4
6.4
6.5
6,6
76.5
76.0
75.8
75.9
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
8.6
9.3
9.7
9.1
6.6
6.6
6.7
6.7
r77.3
6.4
1.7
7.9
6.8
1976
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
6
1977
First quarter
Second quarter
Third quartor
Fourth quarter
1978
First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quartor
Fourth quarter
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; V, estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 47 and 48.
X
IVA means inventory valuation adjustment; CCA means capital consumption adjustment.
82
JUNE
1978
ItCII
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY
Rflj PRICE MOVEMENTS
Implicit price deflator,
gross national product
Year
and
month
310. Index
(1972=100)
Fixed weighted price index,
gross business product
310c. Change 311. Index
over 1 -quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1972=100)
Consumer prices, all items
31 1c. Change 320. Index ® 320c. Change
over 1 -quarter
over 1-month
spans1
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967=100)
(Percent)
Consumer prices, food
320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
322. Index
(1967=100)
322c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(Percent)
322c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1976
4.1
January
February
March
131.5
April
May
June
133.'l
July
August
September
134!e
October
November
December
136!4
4.9
166.7
167.1
167.5
0.5
0.2
0.2
5.1
5.1
4.9
.180.8
179.6
178.6
5.3
168.2
169.2
170.1
0.5
0.6
0.4
4.7
5.3
5.7
179.7
181.0
181.2
0.6
0.7
0.1
0.3
2.2
3.5
4.5
171.1
171.9
172.6
0.4
0.5
0.4
5.5
4.8
4.8
181.1
181.6
181.7
-0.1
0.3
0.1
2.7
0.6
0.9
5.5
173.3
173.8
174.3
0.4
0.2
0.4
5.6
6.6
7.1
182.1
181.5
182.0
0.2
-0.3
0.3
2.7
6.5
7.7
6.8
175.3
177.1
178.2
0.8
1.0
0.6
8.0
8.7
8.9
183.5
187.4
188.6
0.8
2.1
0.6
10.6
12.6
13.4
7.5
179.6
180.6
181.8
0.8
0.6
0.5
7.9
6.6
6.1
191.5
192.6
193.8
1.5
0.6
0.6
11.2
5.0
182.6
183.3
184.0
0.3
0.4
0.4
5.1
4.8
4.7
193.5
194.3
194.7
-0.2
0.4
0.2
3.7
3.6
3.0
5.4
184.5
185.4
186.1
0.3
0.4
0.4
5.7
6.2
7.1
195.0
196.0
196.7
0.2
0.5
0.4
5.8
7.4
9.8
187.1
188.4
189.7
0.8
0.6
0.8
8.2
9.3
199.0
201.4
204.0
1.2
1.2
1.3
191.4
193,3
0.8
0,9
207.7
211.1
1.8
1.6
133.*8
4.6
135.'3
5.4
-0.2
-0.7
-0.6
4.3
132.'l
137J
0.3
0.9
0.1
1977
January
February
March
138.'l
April
May
June
140 '.5
July
August
September .
142^2
October
November
December
144*2
5.3
139^4
7.1
141 .'9
4.8
143^6
5.9
145.'5
7.5
6.6
1978
January
February
March
April
May
June
r7.0
146.*7
...
r6,2
rl47.*7
13.4
16.0
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted seriesare indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 49 and 50.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, l^month
changes are placed on the 2d month, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.
JUNE 1978
83
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.
Q PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con.
Wholesale prices, all commodities
Year
and
month
330. Index®
330c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(1967-100)
(Percent)
Wholesale prices, crude materials
Wholesale prices, industrial commodities
330c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
335. Index®
335c. Change
over 1 -month
spans1
(1967-100)
(Percent)
335c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
331. Index
(1967=100)
33 1c, Change
over 1 -month
spans1
33 la Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1978
179,4
179,4
179.7
0,2
-0.1
0.3
2.4
3.0
4.3
177.4
178.1
179.0
0.6
0.3
0.3
6.0
5.4
5.4
203.1
202.3
199.6
0.0
-0.4
-1.3
-1.4
-0.7
5.0
181.3
181.9
183.2
0,8
0.2
0.7
4.7
4.7
5.3
180.1
180,5
181.5
0.6
0.2
0.6
5.6
6.2
6.7
205.2
204.1
208.2
2.8
-0.5
2.0
5.5
1.9
4.2
184.4
183.8
184.8
0.4
-0.1
0.5
4,3
4.9
4.9
18.2.7
183.8
184.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
7.0
7.8
7.2
208.6
204.2
203.7
0,2
-2.1
-0.2
-1.6
4.5
1,3
185.3
185.6
187.1
0.3
0.5
0.6
5.0
7.4
8.5
186.3
187.1
187,4
0.7
0.6
0.3
6.9
7,4
7.6
203.6
208.6
209.5
0.0
2.5
0,4
1,5
15,0
17.7
January
February
March
188.1
190.2
192.0
0.5
1,1
1.1
10.1
9.9
7.5
188.4
190.0
191.7
0.6
0.8
0.7
7.7
7.5
7,6
210.2
219.0
221.0
0.3
4.2
0.9
22,7
13,6
3,8
April
May
June
..
194.3
195.2
194.5
1.0
0.4
-0.5
6.6
4.5
3.0
193.3
194.2
194.7
0.7
0.5
0.3
7.7
6.9
6.7
225.5
222.3
213.4
2.0
-1.4
-4.0
-0.4
-11,3
-13.4
July
August
September
194,8
194.6
195,3
0.1
0.1
0.4
1.9
2.6
4.4
195.9
196.9
197.8
0.6
0.5
0.5
6.0
5.5
5.9
209.8
206.3
205.7
-1.7
-1.7
-0.3
-15,4
-7.0
3.6
October
November
December
196.2
197.1
198.3
0.5
0.7
0.4
r6.2
8.0
9.3
199.0
199.3
200.0
0.5
0.3
0.5
r6.3
6.5
6.5
207.4
214.4
217,2
0.8
3.4
1,3
11.6
22.9
27.6
r20Q.l
202.0
203.8
0.9
rO.9
1.0
10.5
10.4
r201 . 6
202.8
204.1
rO.8
rO.6
0.5
7.1
7.9
221.6
228.7
232.4
2,0
3.2
1,6
32.0
24.2
206.4
207.9
1.0
0.7
206,0
207.3
0.7
0.7
238.3
238.9
2.5
0.3
January
February
March
April
May
June
....
July
August
September
. .
October
November
December
1977
1978
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August .
September
October
November
December
., .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 49.
Percent changes are centered within the spans:
the 4th month.
1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on
JUNE 1978
ltd*
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con.
|B PRICE MOVEMENTS-Con.
332. Index
(1967=100)
332c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(Percent)
Wholesale prices, consumer finished goods
Wholesale prices, producer finished goods
Wholesale prices; intermediate materials
Year
and
month
332c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent).
333. Index
(1967-100)
333c. Change
over 1 -month
spans1
(Percent)
333c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
334. Index
(1967=100)
334c. Change
over 1-month
spans1
(Percent)
334c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1976
184.3
185.2
186.0
0.6
0.5
0.4
4.8
5,0
5,8
168.8
169.7
170.5
April
May
June
186.6
187.3
188.4
0.3
0.4
0.6
6.3
5.4
6.2
July
August
September
190.0
190.1
191.7
0.8
0.1
0.8
October . . .
November
December
192.4
193.4
194.4
January
February
March
January
February
March
0.7
0.5
0.5
6.5
6.0
5.8
168.0
167.5
167.4
171.2
171.7
172.5
0.4
0.3
0.5
5.4
4.8
5.2
168.5
168.6
168.9
6.3
6.6
6.5
173.3
173.7
174.9
0.5
0.2
0.7
6.3
6.3
7.1
168.9
168.4
169.3
0.4
0.5
0.5
6.1
7.7
8.1
176.5
177.0
178.5
0.9
0.3
0;8
6.6
7.3
6.7
195.7
197.3
199.3
0.7
0.8
1.0
9.2
9.1
7.5
178.9
179.9
180.7
0.2
0.6
0.4
April
May
June
201.1
202.0
201.6
0.9
0,4
6.8
5.4
4.3
181.7
182.8
183.7
July
August
September
202.2
202.6
203.5
0.3
0.2
3.1
3.2
4.4
October
November
December
204.2
205.2
206.0
0.3
0.5
0.4
r5.7
r207.9
209.7
211.3
0.9
0.9
0.8
8.0
8.4
.
...
-0.2
-0.3
-0.1
0.7
0.2
0.7
0.7
0.1
0.2
1.1
1.1
2.3
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.9
3.5
169.3
170.2
171.8
0.0
0.5
0.9
4.9
8.2
9.1
6.0
6.7
5.9
173.0
175.2
176.8
0.7
1.3
0.9
0.6
0.6
0,5
6.4
6.2
6.4
178.1
179.6
179.5
0.7
0.8
184.5
185.4
186.4
0.4
0.5
0,5
8.1
7.9
8.4
179.5
179.7
180.3
0.0
0,1
0.3
3.1
2.8
3.6
188.9
189.9
191.3
1.3
0.5
0.7
r8,6
180.8
182.1
182.7
0.3
0.7
0.3
r5.3
0.5
7.2
7.9
.
-0.3
1977
-0.2
0..4
7.1
7.8
8.7
8.9
-0.1
10.7
11.4
9.2
7.7
5.2
4.0
7.5
7.9
1978
January
February
March
April
May
June
....
212.3
213.6
0.5
0.6
r!92.3
193.3
194.5
195.6
197,3
rO.8
rl.l
0.6
r!84.2
186.3
187.3
0.6
0.9
190.3
191.5
1.6
0.6
rO.5
10.8
10.6
0.5
July
August
September
October
November
December . .
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 49.
'Percent changes are centered within the spans; 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month changes are placed on
the 4th month.
KCII
JUNE 1978
85
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con.
Bl WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adjusted1
Year
and
month
Current dollar earnings
340. Index
(1967-100)
34Qe. Change
over 1-month
spans2
(Percent)
Current dollar compensation
Real earnings
340c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
341. Index
(1967-100)
34 1c. Change
over 1 -month
spans2
(Percent)
341c. Change
over 6-month
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
346. Index
(1967-100)
345e. Change
over 1-quarter
spans2
(Ann. rate,
percent)
34§B. Change
over 4-quurter
spans2
(Ann, rate,
percent)
1976
January
February
March
179.6
180.5
181.4
0.7
0.5
0.5
7.0
6.6
6.8
107.5
107.9
108.2
0.2
0.4
0.3
1.8
1.4
1.8
186!)
April
May
June
182.4
183.6
184.2
0.6
0.7
0.3
6.8
6.9
6.8
108.2
108.3
108.2
0.0
0.1
-0.1
1.9
1.5
1.0
190^7
July
August
September
185.5
186.6
187.5
0.7
0.6
0.5
6.7
6.7
7.1
108.6
108.7
108.7
0.4
0.1
0.0
1.1
1.9
2.2
194^7
October
November
December
188.4
189.7
190.7
0.5
0.7
0.5
7.7
7.1
7.3
108.9
109.3
109.5
0.2
0.4
0.2
2.0
0.5
0.2
198^3
192.6
193.2
194.2
1.0
0.3
0.5
7.7
7.2
7.2
109.7
109.0
108.8
0.2
-0.6
-0.2
-0.3
-1.3
-1.6
204^6
195.6
196.4
197.4
0.7
0.4
0.5
7.3
7.1
7.4
108.7
108.6
108.6
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.6
0.4
1.1
207.' 8
July
August
September .
199.4
199.9
201,2
1.0
0.3
0.7
8.0
8.0
8.1
109.3
109.2
109.5
0.6
-0.1
0.3
2,8
3.1
3.2
21l!3
October .
November
December . .
203.3
204.1
205.2
1.0
0.4
0.5
8.8
9.1
r9.1
110.2
110.2
0.6
0.0
0.1
3.0
2.7
rl.9
215^5
208.1
208.8
210.2
1.4
0.3
0.7
r8.8
p8.5
m.o
110.6
110.5
0.6
-0.4
-0.1
rO.6
p-0.8
r212.0
p212.6
rO.9
pO.3
110.5
pl09.8
0.0
p-0.6
10.9
S!B
9.0
9^6
8.5
9^3
7.6
a.'g
1977
January
February
March
April
May
June
....
no. 3
12.2
7.8
s.'e
a.'e
7.0
9J
8.1
1978
January
February
March
April
May
June
.. .
. .
13.7
222.5
Jgty
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 50 and 51.
'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 6-month changes are placed on the
4th month, 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle month
of the 3d quarter.
JUNE 1978
ltd*
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
B I
PRICES, WAGES, AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con.
^9 WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector-Con.
Year
and
month
Real compensation
346. Index
(1967=100)
346c. Change
over 1 -quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
346c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries®
348. First year 349. Average
average changes changes over
life of
contract
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
Output per hour, all persons, private
business sector
370. Index
(1967-100)
370c. Change
over 1-quarter
spans1
370c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
358, Index of
output per hour,
all persons,
nonfarm
business sector
(1967=100)
1976
January
February
March
.
...
iii!e
6.1
10.5
8.9
4.2
April
May
June
112*.7
July
August
September
nsia
October
November
December
niiz
8.0
3*.2
116\4
10.0
7.4
3^2
2,9
i'.9
7.8
6.8
3^6
mig
3*.5
niis
3.'6
115!2
l!9
nile
2^5
neio
3*6
H6\3
0.9
117.4
3.5
7.2
3^8
2.3
nsii
n?!2
5.2
2.8
-0.1
117.'2
1977
January
February
March
iisia
April
May
June
niig
July
August
September
ii5.*4
October
November
December
ne.'i
3.8
-0.9
i'.8
i.'s
1.8
9.0
8.9
10.2
pz.'i
3.3
9.5
7.5
6.0
6.2
6.3
m'.9
n&\6
126^2
5.7
-1.0
5.3
2.3
120.*8
118*6
1978
January ...
February
March
p5.5
pl!7.9
p!4.6
-2.9
p8.5
119!9
117'.2
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 50 and.51.
"Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-auarter
changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.
BCII JUNE 1978
87
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
LABOR FORCE, EMPLOYMENT, AND UNEMPLOYMENT
^Q CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month
441. Total
442. Em-
ployed
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
Labor force participat on rates
451. Males
20 years
and over
452. Females 453. Both
20 years
sexes, 16-19
and over
years of age
(Percent)
(Percent)
(Percent)
448. Num-
Number unemployed
37. Total
{Thous.)
444. Males
445. Females 446. Both
20 years and 20 years and sexes, 16-19
over
over
years of age
(Thous.}
(Thous.)
(Thous.)
447. Fulltime
workers
{Thous. }
ber employed
part-time
for eeo^
nomic
reasons
(Thous.)
1976
93,652
93,757
93,936
86,293
86,552
86,828
79.8
79.7
79.7
46.6
46.6
46.6
54,2
54.2
54.4
7,359
7,205
7,108
3,127
2,999
2,976
2,526
2,501
2,441
1,706
1,705
1,691
5,924
5,735
5,714
3,292
3,204
3,176
April
May
Jung
94,391
94,568
94,549
87,217
87,527
87,432
79.9
79.9
79.8
46.8
46.8
47.0
55.2
55.2
53.8
7,174
7,041
7,117
2,924
2,906
3,074
2,475
2,435
2,464
1,775
1,700
1,679
5,703
5,630
5,869
3,224
3,275
3,159
July
August
September
95,176
95,208
95,089
87,801
87,806
87,777
79.9
79,7
79.8
47.2
47.2
47.2
55.6
55.4
53.8
7,375
7,402
7,312
3,076
2,971
3,031
2,637
2,648
2,613
1,662
1,783
1,668
5,871
5,983
6,018
3,191
3,213
3,369
October
November
December
95,197
95,741
95,936
87,844
88,255
88,446
79.7
80.0
79.9
47.0
47.4
47.5
54.6
54.5
54.6
7,353
7,486
7,490
3,020
3,182
3,174
2,623
2,589
2,586
1,710
1,715
1,730
6,044
6,000
6,048
3,421
3,478
3,392
January
February
March
95,719
96,320
96,623
88,653
89,047
89,478
79.7
79.9
79.8
47.3
47.6
47.8
54.2
55.1
55.6
7,066
7,273
7,145
3,010
3,073
2,898
2,416
2,512
2,536
1,640
1,688
1,711
5,623
5,697
5,550
3,243
3,441
3,271
April
May
June
96,746
97,161
97,552
89,877
90,267
90,648
79.6
79.6
79.9
48.0
48,3
48.1
55.7
55.7
57.1
6,869
6,894
6,904
2,728
2,768
2,661
2,474
2,462
2,550
1,667
1,664
1,693
5,427
5,450
5,443
3,192
3,268
3,390
July
August
September
97,307
97,614
97,756
90,588
90,793
91,088
79.5
79.5
79.3
48.0
48.0
48.6
56.5
57.5
55.7
6,719
6,821
6,668
2,647
2,658
2,478
2,459
2,523
2,513
1,613
1,640
1,677
5,401
5,535
5,336
3,464
3,253
3,306
October
November
December
98,071
98,877
98,919
91,383
92,214
92,609
79.7
79.9
80.0
48.3
48.8
48.7
56.7
57.4
57.0
6,688
6,663
6,310
2,621
2,512
2,434
2,447
2,528
2,409
1,620
1,623
1,467
5,387
5,215
4,938
3,263
3,285
3,220
99,107
99,093
99,414
92,881
93,003
93,266
80.0
79.8
79.9
48.9
48.9
49.1
56.9
56.5
56.7
6,226
6,090
6,148
2,480
2,383
2,409
2,247
2,085
2,127
1,499
1,622
1,612
4,891
4,791
4,719
2,986
3,193
3,164
99,784
100,261
93,801
94,112
79.8
79.9
49.4
49.5
57.2
58.3
5,983
6,149
2,225
2,232
2,169
2,333
1,589
1,584
4,558
4,750
3,327
3,243
January
February
March
. .
1977
1978
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain nossasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 52.
JUNE 1978
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
I DI
GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
M DEFENSE INDICATORS
^H RECEIPTS AND EXPENDITURES
Year
and
month
500. Surplus
or deficit
501. Receipts
(Ann. rate,
bii.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bii.dol.)
516. Defense
Department
obligations,
512. Expendi- total, extures
cluding
military
assistance
State and local governments1
Federal Government1
502. Expendi- 510. Surplus
tures
or deficit
(Ann. rate,
bii.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bii.dol.)
511. Receipts
(Ann. rate,
bii.dol.)
(Ann. rate,
bii.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
525. Military
prime contract awards
to U.S.
business
firms and
institutions
548. Value
of manufacturers' new
orders, defense
products
(Mif. do!.)
(Bii.dol.)
564. Federal
purchases
of goods
and services
for national
defense
(Ann. rate,
bii.dol.)
1976
8,433
8,463
8,812
3,536
3,101
6,713
1.63
2.13
2.83
86.' 3
245^5
9,140
8,567
8,676
3,489
3,543
3,854
2.75
2.12
2.36
8o!b
269^0
24?! 9
9,835
7,096
10,351
2,535
3,652
4,985
2.22
1.92
2.14
Q6A
26^5
277,' 5
251 !l
9,629
8,894
10,082
4,897
4,114
4,729
2.67
2.95
3.99
8&\ 4
403^7
2?! 3
281.0
253^7
9,476
9,705
9,958
3,354
4,369
4,819
2.10
2.06
2.54
89! 7
371 .'2
411. * 5
25." 4
288 .'l
262." 6
9,619
9,761
10,039
4,303
4,654
4,300
3.28
2.89
2.59
93^4
-5o\9
373. * 2
432. 'l
32.*9
301.' 6
268." 7
9,072
10,465
9,631
4,624
4,623
4,255
2.06
2.51
2.11
95.' 6
-60.*0
386 .'3
446.3
31.1
307 .'l
276*6
10,415
10,202
9,734
6,028
r4,100
5,444
4.46
3.42
4.40
98.* 5
r-55.8
r395.3
r451.1
r34.1
r313.8
r279.6
10,641
10,413
10,588
p4,549
p3,981
2.87
2.66
4.48
99.'5
January
February
March
-60'.3
April
May
June
-46\2
329. 'l
375. * 3
12.9
258 ! 4
July
August
September .
-53^5
337! i
390.6
2K1
-55!9
344 .'5
400 '. 4
-38 ".8
364*. 9
April
May
June
-40." 3
July
August
September .
318\4
37o\7
is.'s
253,*8
,240 .*5
">v
....
October
November
December
1977
January . .
February
March
October
November .
December
...
...
1978
January
February .
March
April
May
June . . . .
9,720
(NA)
(NA)
r4.03
p3.95
July
August
September
October
November .
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 53 and 54.
*Based on national income and product accounts.
JUNE 1978
89
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
^H MERCHANDISE TRADE
Year
and
month
602. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total
(Mil. do!,)
604. Exports of agricultural products
(Mil.dol.)
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery
612. General imports,
total
(Mil.dol.)
{Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
616. Imports of
automobiles and parts
614. Imports of
petroleum and
petroleum products
{Mil.dol.)
1976
January
February
March
9,097
8,919
9,020
1,917
1,630
1,668
1,780
1,817
1,806
9,001
9,032
9,469
2,471
2,129
2,334
1,085
1,041
1,117
April
May
June
9,369
9,564
9,722
1,892
1,950
1,948
1,818
1,836
1,871
9,643
9,182
10,154
2,699
1,874
2,739
1,221
976
1,169
July
August
September
9,956
9,733
9,796
2,039
2,058
2,160
1,952
1,675
1,883
10,717
10,477
10,651
2,824
2,803
3,053
1,025
1,055
1,238
October
November
December
9,698
9,594
10,397
2,231
1,750
1,860
1,821
1,814
1,983
10,555
10,623
11,020
2,753
3,134
3,087
871
1,128
1,221
January
February ..,,,, . .
March
9,665
9,896
10,164
1,762
2,004
2,112
1,831
1,892
1,859
10,445
12,611
12,424
3,075
3,247
4,171
1,083
1,248
1,299
April
May ..
June
9,953
10,522
10,092
2,142
2,360
2,077
1,808
1,835
1,868
11,798
11,170
13,334
3,803
2,885
3,933
1,266
1,183
1,360
July .
Auqust
September
10,385
9,674
11,036
1,976
1,801
2,064
1,862
1,732
2,133
12,483
12,101
12,939
3,212
3,318
3,789
1,315
1,328
1,428
October
November
December
9,375
9,475
11,007
1,654
1,755
2,111
1,556
1,791
2,056
12,583
12,398
13,474
3,325
3,627
3,157
1,426
1,465
1,479
January
February
March
10,014
9,922
10,912
(NA)
(NA)
12,381
14,440
13,699
(NA)
(NA)
April
May
June
11,635
11,754
1977
1978
14,496
13,992
July
AuQust
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted seriesare indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 55.
90
JUNE 1978
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
E
U.S. INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS—Con.
*^9 GOODS AND SERVICES MOVEMENTS (EXCLUDING TRANSFERS UNDER MILITARY GRANTS)
Merchandise, adjusted1
Goods and services
Year
and
month
668. Exports
667. Balance
{Mil.dol.J
2
1976
Revised
{Mil. dot.)
2
Revised
618. Exports
622. Balance
669. Imports
(Mil.dol.)
2
Revised
Income on investments
620. Imports
651, U.S. investments abroad
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
(Mil.dol.)
2
2
2
Revised
Revised
Revised
(Mil. dol.)
2
Revised
652. Foreign
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil. dol.)
Revised2
January
February
March
2,731
40,375
37,644
-1,351
27,001
28,352
7,027
3,405
April
May
June
3J8*
42,449
39,268
-1,583
28,380
29,963
7,369
3,332
July
August
September
2,227
44,160
41 ,933
-2,816
29,602
32,418
7,428
3,293
October
November
December
1,223
44,291
43,068
-3,603
29,711
33,314
7,420
3,281
January
February .
March
-1,623
44,751
46,374
-7,018
29,477
36,495
7,796
3,197
April
May
June ....
-1,427
46,285
47,712
-6,621*
30,638
37,259
8,088
3,601*
July
August
September
-1,591
47,135
48,726
-7,250
31,013
38,263
8,220
3,610
October
November
December
-5,870
45,046
50,916
-10,170
29,457
39,627
7,997
4,185
p-5,700
p48,137
p53,837
p-11,201
p30,664
p41,865
p9,432
p4,665
1977
1978
January
February
March ...
April
May
June
July
August
September
October . .
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonat movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.
Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and
Department of Defense purchases (imports).
2
See "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.
ItCIt
JUNE 1978
91
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
|H INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
47. United States, 721.0ECD 1
European counindex of industrial production tries, index of
industrial
production
Year
and
month
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
728. Japan,
index of industrial production
725. West
Germany, index
of industrial
production
(1967-100)
(1967=100)
726. France,
index of industrial production
(1967-100)
722. United
Kingdom, index
of industrial
production
(1967-100)
727. Italy, index
of industrial
production
(1967-100)
723, Canada,
index of industrial production
(1987-100)
1976
125.9
127.6
128.3
141
142
143
173.7
178.0
180.6
143
147
146
149
148
150
113
116
115
130.9
138,9
139.2
141.7
143.0
144.0
128.7
129.7
129.8
144
146
146
183.0
182.2
185.7
147
148
148
150
150
151
116
119
113
138.7
145.1
139.8
145.0
147.0
144.6
July
August .
September
130.7
131.3
130.6
144
146
148
187.1
187.7
187.6
148
148
151
153
153
159
116
116
117
143.5
139.1
147.8
144.1
145.8
145.0
October .
November
December
130.2
131.5
133.0
149
149
149
187.1
190.1
191.4
151
151
152
151
157
154
118
118
118
143.6
150.4
154.7
144.6
146.3
147.1
January
February
March
132.3
133.2
135.3
153
r!50
152
193.0
H90.0
H92.7
154
152
155
159
156
159
119
119
119
153.6
153.5
153.8
149.5
148.7
149.0
April
May
June
136.1
137.0
137.8
149
149
148
H91.7
r!91.0
r!92.3
152
151
152
154
151
157
118
119
116
144.0
147.1
137.3
148.6
149.5
150.6
July
August ....
September
138.7
138.1
138.5
148
148
149
r!89.2
r!92.9
r192.6
151
152
154
153
153
155
118
118
118
139.8
140.8
144.6
148.9
150.1
149.5
October
November
December
138.9
139.3
139.7
149
148
150
H91.4
r!94.7
H96.2
152
154
156
150
156
150
116
116
117
137.7
140.0
135.9
149.9
150.8
151.4
January
February
March
138.8
139.2
H40.9
152
150
pi 50
H98.2
r!98.3
p202.4
157
152
151
155
156
p!60
118
119
pl!9
142.6
H47.1
145.5
r!49.6
r152.3
r!52.0
April
May
June
H42.9
p!43.7
(NA)
pi 54
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
pl41.5
(NA)
plS1.7
(NA)
January
February
March
April
May
juno ,
...
1977
1978
(NA)
July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
^Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
92
JUNE 1978
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
F I
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS-Con.
Qj CONSUMER PRICES
Year
and
month
West Germany
United States
Japan
320. Index® 320c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
738. Index® 738c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(1967=100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967=100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
735. Index®
(1967=100)
^
735c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
United Kingdom
France
736. Index®
(1967=100)
736c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)
732. Index® 732c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(1967=100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
1976
148.0
149.0
149.6
4.8
5.0
4.9
187.2
188.5
190.1
9.7
9.8
9.1
237.6
240.6
241.9
13.5
11.8
9.8
150.5
151.1
151.5
3.8
4.2
3.6
191.8
193.0
193.9
9.1
9.4
9.7
246.6
249.3
250.6
9.3
11.5
14.0
150.9
151.4
151.4
3.0
2.4
2.9
195.7
197.1
199.3
10.2
10.6
10.6
251.1
254.6
258.0
16.0
18.2
20.7
8.4
151.5
151.8
152.6
4.2
3.7
4.3
201.1
202.8
203.5
9.0
8.7
8.4
262.7
266.3
269.9
24.2
21.4
19.8
236.0
237.2
238.7
8.2
8.8
6.1
154.0
154.9
155.5
4.7
5.3
5.2
204.1
205.5
207.3
8.8
9.1
9.7
276.9
279.7
282.4
18.9
16.0
14.7
7.9
6.6
6.1
242.6
244,9
243.6
5.6
7.1
7.2
156.2
156.9
157.6
4.5
4.2
3.2
210.0
212.0
213.6
11.3
11.2
289.6
291.9
294.9
11.2
11.9
11.6
182.6
183.3
184.0
5.1
4.8
4.7
243.0
243.0
247.3
6.9
3.7
2.8
157.4
157.3
157.1
3.1
2.2
1.8
215.5
216.7
218.6
10.3
9.0
8.1
295.3
296.7
298.3
9.4
10.2
9.5
184.5
185.4
186.1
5.7
6.2
7.1
248.6
245.7
245.1
2.2
1.1
2.0
157.3
157.5
157.9
2.2
2.0
2.9
220.3
221.1
221.7
7.2
7,2
7.5
299.6
301.0
302.6
8.4
6.5
6.0
January
February
March
187.1
188.4
189.7
8.2
9.3
246.1
247.1
249.4
1.4
158.9
159.7
160.3
2.5
2.9
222.9
224.4
226.4
7.8
304.4
306.2
308.1
6.3
5.5
April
May
June
191.4
193.3
January
February
March
166.7
167.1
167.5
5.1
5.1
4.9
216.0
217.3
218.1
April
June
168.2
169.2
170.1
4.7
5.3
5.7
223.5
224.1
224.5
July
August
September .
171.1
171.9
172.6
5.5
4.8
4.8
^225.7
223.9
229.8
October
November
December .
173.3
173.8
174.3
5.6
6.6
7.1
231.3
231.3
233,7
January
February . .
March
175.3
177.1
178.2
8.0
8.7
8.9
April
June
179.6
180.6
181.8
July
August
September .
October .
November .
December
May
....
8.4
8.5
10.1
8.8
8.2
10.5
8.8
9.8
11.0
9.8
10.2
1977
May
n.o
1978
July
August
September .
(NA)
252.1
(NA)
160.7
161.1
228.9
(NA)
(NA)
312.6
314.4
....
October . . .
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted seriesare indicated by ®, Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
'Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
ltd! JUNE 1978
93
OTHER IMPORTANT ECONOMIC MEASURES
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS—Con.
Q STOCK PRICKS
Q CONSUMER PRICES-Con.
19. United
States, index
of stock
737. Index© 737c. Change 733. Index® 733c. Change prices, 500
over 6-month
over 6-month common
stocks @
spans1
spans1
Italy
Year
and
month
(1967=100)
Canada
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967=100)
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967=100)
748. Japan,
index of
stock
prices©
745. West
Germany,
index of
stock
prices®
746. France,
index of
stock
prices©
742. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices©
747. Italy,
index of
stock
prices®
743. Canada,
index of
stock
prices©
(1967=100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967-100)
(1967=100)
1976
January
February ,
March
197.7
202.1
206.1
21.2
23.2
22.0
167,7
168.3
169.0
6.5
5.7
6.0
105.4
109.5
110.0
305.4
305.2
309.4
131.'9
135.0
136.5
143.5
150.8
146.6
150.7
152.6
152.5
60.0
62.6
58.3
112.1
121.7
123.6
April
May
June
211.6
215.8
216.8
21.4
19.8
17.9
169.7
171.1
171.9
5.3
4.7
5.1
110.9
110.0
110.7
302.9
309.1
319.3
132.6
126.7
127.2
140.1
138.2
135.4
154.0
155.9
145.8
52.9
53.6
56.7
122.5
123.9
121.6
July
August
September
217.9
220.3
224.0
18.9
19.4
22.1
172.6
173.4
174.2
5.7
5.6
5.7
113.3
112.4
114.7
318.1
321.8
321.5
124.8
122.0
122.3
129.7
130.5
126.8
146.4
140.1
131.9
64.3
63.9
59.5
119.4
117.4
115.8
October
November
December
230.5
235.5
238.6
20.1
21.1
21.4
175.4
176.0
176.5
7.0
9.0
9.6
110.8
110.1
113.8
318.4
314.2
330.6
115.9
115.8
117.1
112.5
108.4
115.2
116.6
121.5
132.7
51.6
50.3
55.6
108,9
104.1
103.2
238.8
243.4
246.5
17.0
14.8
12.7
178.0
179.7
181,5
9.3
9.5
10.0
112.9
109.8
109.4
343.8
344.7
341.3
119.5
118.3
118.1
116.0
109.7
101.6
149.6
157.0
164.2
52.9
50.0
48.7
107.1
108.1
110.2
April
May
June
249.5
252.6
254.3
14.7
13.4
14.4
182.5
184.0
185.3
9.8
7.8
7.3
107.7
107.4
108.0
339.3
343.3
340.7
124.0
128.4
125.2
93.9
97.2
104.0
164.9
180.3
178.6
46.2
44.4
43.4
108.3
105.5
104.6
July
August
September
255.8
258.2
263.9
14.4
15.1
15.4
187.1
187.9
188.9
8.2
8.6
9.1
109.0
106.3
104.7
339.6
345,0
351.2
124.3
126.0
124.9
99.8
105.3
109.7
178.4
191.6
208.7
43.9
45.3
50.3
106.7
104.4
100.0
October
November
December
266.7
270.7
272.0
15,7
14.5
12.8
190.8
192.0
193.3
8.4
9.5
10.0
102.0
102.6
102.1
345.0
332.5
328.6
126.4
128.5
125,4
111.9
111.3
105.3
210.4
197.7
198.8
46.2
43,6
40.0
97.4
96.3
100.4
January
February
March
274.6
277.4
280.3
11.5
11.3
194.0
195.3
197.5
8.5
9.3
98.2
96.8
96.6
339.0
348.3
359.7
126.5
127.9
126.1
98.0
100.3
98.0
198.2
187.7
187.5
40.7
43.5
42.8
98.5
97.1
99.1
April
May
Juns
283.3
286.4
100.8
106.0
P106.3
371.8
371.0
p372.6
124.9
124.3
p!28.5
100,3
rp!02.7
p!03.4
191.9
203.0
p201,4
41.4
43.2
p43.7
105.1
rp!07.7
pll3.9
1977
January
February
March
..
1978
197.9
200.7
July
August
September
October . .
November . .
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain noseasonal movement. Unadjusted seriesare indicated by @. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 58.
Changes over 6-month spans are centered on the 4th month.
94
JUNE
1978
APPENDIXES
B. Current Adjustment Factors
19 78
19 77
July
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
13. New business incorporations
1
..
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
103.7
79.2
73.2
84.2
100.3
139.1
154.0
112.4
95.4
87 0
80 1
85 3
100.6
99.1
95.5
94.3
90.2
95.8
101.2
89.8
114.7
100 5
109 5
108 2
15. Prof its (after taxes) per dollar of sales,
manufacturing2
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies1 3
Aug.
100.7
98.4
93 9
107 5
781
766
-2
-497
-354
318
-1409
-1291
-166
140
760
1245
100.0
99.3
99.4
99.9
100.6
101.6
100.6
99.0
99.8
100.2
99.9
99.8
516. Defense Department obligations total
91 5
83 5
121 0
132 6
107 9
98 5
103 4
89 5
89 6
104 6
82 6
94 4
525 Military prime contract awards in U S
79 9
81 1
173 2
128 8
111 6
95 7
100 0
84 0
89 2
94 4
81 3
77 2
604 Exports of agricultural products
88 5
85 6
84 0
103 1
118 6
110 1
106 9
100 5
106 6
103 3
95 4
90 9
606 Exports of nonelectrical machinery
95 8
95 5
91 8
104 3
98 6
101 8
95 9
94 3
109 9
105 2
106 1
102 9
614 Imports of petroleum and products
103 7
107 2
93 4
95 4
91 6
102 1
106 1
90 4
106 6
106 4
95 8
99 5
93 9
84 2
83 6
97 3
101 1
103 8
101 8
94 8
117 3
108 1
107 1
109 3
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding. .
61 6 Imports of automobiles and parts
969. Profits, manufacturing (Citibank)"
-8
-2
-8
18
NOTE; These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., rather than by the source agency. Seasonal adjustments
are kept current by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in Business Conditions Digest whenever they are available. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1
Factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
J2 Quarterly series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter.
3
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. These factors are
computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program.
M-quarter diffusion index; factors are placed in the first month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed and these factors, computed by the additive version of the X-11
variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
95
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
Quarterly
Monthly
Annual
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
IQ
17.54
II Q
6. VALDB OP MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES, IN CURRENT DOLLARS
{BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
1949...
1950...
19S1...
1952...
1953...
1954...
19SS...
1956...
1937...
5.98
7.50
7.08
7.62
14.08
11.06
14.21
10.31
13.92
14.61
15.64
5.90
7.82
6,67
7,86
14.64
12.81
13.34
9.72
14.96
15.04
15,14
5.89
8.00
6.16
8.35
13.84
12.94
13.69
10.17
14.24
15.69
14.11
6.21
3.06
6.02
9.23
13.25
10.86
13.58
9.75
14.51
15.16
14.58
5.92
8.85
S.75
9.39
12.88
13,00
13.20
10.29
14.84
15.06
14.23
5.95
8.85
5.93
11.52
12.61
12.04
12.35
10.50
14.98
14.75
13.43
6,19
8.92
5.85
14.21
11.41
11.76
10.89
10.45
IS. 04
17.73
14.03
6.33
8.38
6.92
11.79
10.75
12.66
9.71
11.69
15.74
14.78
13.64
6.99
8.34
6.77
12.00
11.98
11.85
9.99
12.64
15.74
14.84
12.96
7.36
7.95
7.12
10.95
11.55
11.95
9.94
11.14
15.74
15.78
13.58
7.72
7.72
7.00
11.88
11.18
12. 89
9.96
12.60
16.42
15.73
12.54
1938...
1939...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1906...
1967...
1968...
12.93
15.66
15.51
14. DC
17.44
18,13
20.62
22.10
25.59
24.77
26,08
12.41
16.92
15.92
14.62
17.75
18.90
19.99
22.36
23.69
24.79
27.39
12,48
16.64
15.19
14.48
17.06
19.03
19.77
22.73
26.79
24.35
29.30
11.79
16.83
15.00
15.26
16.66
18.57
20.46
23.03
26.35
24.82
27.81
12.17
15.96
IS. 16
15.42
16.84
18.94
20. S4
22.36
25.89
25.82
27,04
13.26
16.82
15.51
15.82
16.71
18.09
20.61
22.68
26.73
26.68
27.38
13.11
15.72
15.23
15.64
16.99
18.85
21.57
23.34
26.22
25.61
27.03
13.54
14.91
15.77
16.46
17.01
18.69
20.18
23.16
13.61
16.01
15.93
16.28
17.83
18.89
21.10
27,15
15.33
14.70
14.72
16.99
17.67
18.89
20.79
24.51
25.61
26.33
29.10
14.58
15.96
14.85
17.38
18.63
18. 48
22.92
25.14
25. 58
28.62
29.33
37.84
49.22
46.62
25.86
26.30
27.34
14.14
15.76
14.56
16.33
17.88
19.00
20.46
23.88
26,06
25.78
30,27
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974., .
1973...
1976...
1S77...
1978...
29.55
27.93
29.90
32.26
40.43
45.42
40.86
45.93
30.23
27.73
30.05
33.07
41.50
45.52
40.64
47.92
30.12
27. SI
29.84
33.35
43.01
45.26
38.45
50.43
31.72
26.75
29.14
33.65
42.48
45.94
40.80
50.12
29.76
27.78
28.69
34.45
42.91
48.89
40.56
50.60
29,26
28.03
29.38
34.34
42.63
48.35
40.15
51.13
29.54
27.58
29.51
34.02
42.11
48.91
42.89
52.09
29,58
26.83
29.52
30.58
27.77
30. 3S
21.73
30.13
36.69
44.38
45.66
43.22
51.70
29.84
26.06
31.40
37.88
46.05
4S.45
44.24
53.49
29.29
29.08
31.93
39.31
43.51
41.52
44.40
56,44
89.90
83.27
89.69
93.68
124.94
136.20
119.93
144.28
13.95
14.87
12.36
20.14
19.02
18.70
13.32
19.27
22.62
20.13
17.19
14.58
14.11
12.98
18.19
18.33
18.87
15.25
16.91
22.54
21.35
17.96
15.26
13.69
12.74
19.28
17.75
20.33
15.28
19.10
23.49
21.26
16.34
18.50
20.23
18.81
21,12
23.16
24.48
26,10
30.08
32.02
30,98
35.04
20.02
18,88
19.06
22.00
22.92
24.34
26.52
30.83
31.35
31.53
33.64
33.76
27.3?
30.78
36.4?
41.68
34.86
31.18
34.93
33.01
27,70
32.08
37.54
42.72
34.43
31.69
36.00
1948.
..
34.81
42.47
51.11
42.77
50.92
23.69
25.58
28.37
30. S3
37.01
42,79
48.79
43.74
50.91
22.78
20.89
23.04
44.18
34.93
42.00
30.02
42.36
45.37
45.94
18.02
24.91
17.93
26.97
39.97
36.80
40.47
30.21
43.59
45.91
42.92
37.22
49.61
4S.67
46.50
43.16
52. 2S
50.21
56.06
60.38
55.60
67.19
78.07
73.91
82,7?
61.61
68.07
78.97
77,32
82.23
90,74
82. S6
87.21
102.44
128.02
143.08
121.51
151.83
7. VALUP. OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES, IN 1972 DOLLARS
(BILLIONS Of DOLLARS)
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1934,, .
1933...
1936...
1937...
14.60
12.66
13.72
24.73
17. SS
22.71
13.33
20.39
22.33
20,43
14! 59
12.33
13.80
22.43
17.50
22.31
15.81
21.00
20.66
20.99
11,84
14.16
23,23
20,24
20.84
14.91
22.53
21.13
20.30
12.20
15.27
10.96
14.99
21.86
20.44
21.33
15.54
21.35
21.89
18.91
19S8...
1959.,.
1900...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1906...
1907...
196S...
17.06
20.34
19.89
18,19
22.62
23.54
26.57
28.12
32, IS
30.24
31.00
16.3?
21.95
20.40
18.92
22.99
24.54
23.70
28.40
32.19
30.23
32.37
16.49
21.53
19.44
18.73
22.07
24.72
25.38
28.89
33,53
29,69
34.55
15.57
21.71
19.21
19.73
21.56
24.15
26.23
29.22
32.81
30.27
32.68
16.05
20, S4
19.46
19.92
21.78
24,60
26.30
28.34
32,04
31.48
31.81
17.47
21.57
19.91
20.43
21.62
23.46
26.39
28.67
33.04
32.45
32.17
17.30
20.18
19.60
20.23
21.98
24.35
27.62
29.47
32.38
"31.08
31.66
1969...
1970...
33.78
30.66
31.57
32.69
39.88
41.07
30.51
32. SS
34.39
30.44
31.73
33.30
40.61
40.78
30.12
33.79
34.08
30,21
31.33
33.55
41.51
39.73
28.44
35,39
35.92
29.17
30.48
33.79
40.69
39.42
30.09
35.05
33.66
30.13
29.89
34.59
40.79
40.74
29,82
35.26
33.10
30.27
30. S4
34.40
40.53
39.57
29.50
35.46
33,35
29.75
30.43
33.95
40.07
39.13
31.46
35.90
1947, . .
1971, ..
1972...
1973. ..
1974,..
1973...
1976...
1977...
1978...
...
...
is!io
12.75
15.27
10,79
16.43
20.94
17.13
21.03
14.91
21.66
21.08
19.49
12.03
16.60
10.34
16,54
20,31
20.50
20.25
15.69
22.09
20.88
19.02
12,11
16.33
10.68
20.11
19.92
18.96
18.82
15.99
22.06
20. 54
17.89
12.49
16.02
12.41
24.51
18.14
18.46
16.63
15.93
21.96
17.79
19.14
24.42
18.64
20.35
21.27
22.00
13.69
14.99
12.60
20,06
17.12
19.91
14.89
17.82
22.81
20.19
18.11
17.86
20.53
20.66
21.04
24.11
25.81
29.21
31.80
31.80
31.94
23.07
24,38
26.94
29.83
33.39
30.85
32.99
33.23
2S.3S
34.20
29.83
30.16
34.71
31.22
40.26
40.02
36.76
40,40
37.74
31.29
31,88
34.92
34.63
1935. . .
19S6...
1957...
1958...
1959,..
1900...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1904.,.
1965..,
1966...
1967. ..
1968. ..
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977,..
1978...
12.33
11.01
12.34
20.27
14.43
18.33
13.6?
19.03
18.88
17.78
12.22
10,66
12.39
18.13
14.32
17.75
14.39
18.88
18.33
18.52
12.87
10.44
12,31
18.62
16.22
18.00
14.44
20.21
18.21
18.14
12.52
9,98
12.88
16.95
16.74
18.62
14.50
19.67
18.48
17.56
12.90
10.03
14.37
16.28
14.74
18.13
14.50
19,52
17.90
17.48
13.88
9.57
14.49
15.76
17.12
17.80
15.24
19.91
17.48
17.63
13.65
10.24
18.05
15.65
18.86
18.49
16.61
20.53
20.53
23.0?
25.09
27.07
26.46
28,14
14.82
20.70
18.59
16.75
20,36
21.73
22.63
25.38
27.49
26.22
28.56
14.60
20,03
17.50
17.77
20.03
21.67
22.39
2S.41
28.56
26.02
28.58
14.60
19.74
17.53
18.24
18.99
21.86
23.26
25.08
27.61
26.22
28.07
15.08
19.12
17.60
18.76
19.60
21.51
22.96
25.14
27.36
26.36
28.58
15.94
19.21
17.92
19.32
19,30
20.86
23.00
2S.2S
27.51
26.68
28.69
16.26
18.72
17.91
18.44
19.89
21.72
23.82
25.90
26,98
26.63
28. IS
16.70
17.75
17.93
19.31
20.18
21.11
23.17
25.44
27.16
27.99
27. S9
30,22
28.24
29.13
30.38
36,48
35.15
26.92
31.34
30.13
27.69
28.88
31.16
36.90
34.74
26.87
31.91
30.07
27.59
29.15
31.03
37.23
34.19
26.11
32.88
29.89
27,33
28.30
31.08
35.94
34.13
27.42
32.43
29.40
27.57
27.90
31.16
36.19
35.02
27.53
32.93
29.67
28.11
27.72
31.87
35.86
34.59
27.76
32.99
30.32
27.18
28. SO
31.48
35.62
33.47
29.30
32.88
29.73
27.07
28.28
32.67
35.64
33.09
29.52
32.60
NOTE: Those series contain revisions beginning with 1958.
96
15.67
16.09
17.62
14.57
20.28
17.59
16.93
13.46
11.86
20.21
14.31
15.71
15.39
15.00
19.67
17.84
17.13
4 4 . *29
47,14
37.05
32.09
47.96
41.68
70.39
55.29
65.86
46,05
63.92
62.61
46,14
65.10
64.12
61.72
63.85
57.42
18.96
20.46
19.24
22.77
24.17
23.79
28,09
31.62
31.27
34.16
33.71
49,92
63.82
59.73
55.84
67.68
72.80
77.65
49.09
63.82
58.58
32.25
30.90
32.42
38.80
39.88
31.24
31.69
37.73
102.23
12.30
11.17
16.11
15.21
15.72
13.32
15.97
19.13
17.95
16.46
11.91
11.66
14,68
14. 66
15.78
13.56
16.92
19,85
18.02
IS, 81
11.40
11.45
15.5S
17.27
18.59
18.29
19.23
17.22
17.98
17.67
19.27
20. 6S
22.10
23.04
25.65
27.38
26.39
30.00
18,17
17.46
17.48
20.34
20.56
22.09
23.72
26.68
26.82
27.53
30.41
17.98
18.72
17.26
20.91
20.08
21.76
24.76
27.32
26.53
29.39
29.68
30.29
25,69
28,76
33.69
36,19
31.11
30.19
31.51
29.32
25.52
29.68
34.52
36.63
30.05
30.04
33,10
28.91
27.99
29.74
3S.Q4
34.60
26.94
30,40
34.23
21.27
24.37
25.22
27. OS
26.84
29.34
30.20
27,41
28.25
33.43
3S.53
31.82
30.02
31.91
22.07
24.01
20.89
34.83
34.71
36.69
29.89
36.38
47.90
46.35
39.08
76.60
97.85
79.41
122.36
153.63
144. 88
145.31
129.25
179.61
184.89
169,04
40.26
46.64
46.93
48.38
51.83
56.43
62.85
70.19
79.23
77.49
82.74
44.05
46.42
44.13
50.90
54.18
56.37
63.27
73.53
77. 2S
80.73
88.70
159.37
191.89
183.35
188.94
208.47
224.46
248.11
278,98
313.52
309.45
336.44
89.70
82.18
89. S6
105.84
127.37
148.81
129.40
153.92
89.48
80,87
93.46
113.88
133.94
132.63
131.86
161.63
359.82
328.88
359.92
420.84
514,27
S60.72
502.72
611,68
85.41
97.87
90.16
97.92
91.31
94.65
99.54
122.00
121.58
89.07
101.73
63.11
58.07
60.10
64,96
72.21
78.92
86.23
97.89
94.20
96.66
102.68
89.57
90.91
102,78
122.01
119.73
89.41
103,77
38.29
47.34
35.69
64.68
55.18
57,33
50.34
49.74
66.83
6S.1S
54.64
43.79
42.67
38.08
57.61
55.10
57.90
45,85
SS.28
68. 6S
62.74
51.69
181.44
142.91
211,93
243.78
228.59
224.66
197.21
264,50
25S.86
225.47
32,95
59.85
60.61
62.54
67,05
72.84
80,37
88. SI
97.57
93.73
96.59
S7.48
59.57
57.11
65,89
70.23
72.61
80.71
92.53
94.64
96.67
102.39
209.44
247,06
236.03
244.37
269.94
290.46
317. 6S
352.68
387.97
374.76
393.56
100.78
88.46
91.81
10S. 42
120,73
116.89
94.63
10S.SO
99.02
85. 9?
95.28
112.81
124.28
100.53
94.56
108.66
404.73
3S5.31
372.65
420. SS
489.02
458.73
367,67
421.66
TOTAL POR PERIOD
12,71
11.96
15.96
13.73
16.58
13.77
15.78
19.35
17.38
17.19
20.43
18.97
26.15
19.70
37.52
34.77
36.46
32.95
32.64
45.76
47.26
41.10
TOTAL POR PERIOD
37.03
8. VAI.UB OP MANUFACTURERS 1 NEW ORDERS FOR CONSUMER GOODS AND MATERIALS IE! 1972 DOLLARS
(BILLIONS OP DOLLARS)
1947...
194B...
1949...
19SO...
1951...
1952...
1933...
1954...
IV Q
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
5.66
7.46
7.14
7.56
13.46
11.06
14,45
9.99
13.48
15.72
15.16
1947.,.
IIIQ
14.19
17.05
13.68
18.14
19.46
18.19
14.91
37.42
32.11
37.04
57.02
45.17
54,28
42.50
18.12
55.42
54.44
45.07
59.59
54.58
51.13
60.92
63.93
68.09
75.88
83.12
78.70
85.28
90.42
83.52
87,16
92.77
110.61
104.08
79.90
96.13
39,30
29.58
39.82
34,06
S4.22
49.99
48.60
54.55
44.24
59.10
53.86
52.67
43.38
46.78
4S.33
59.30
52.81
51.25
33.61
34.28
46.34
44.66
48.55
40.56
51.03
58.44
S4.16
47.18
45.62
58.07
53,05
56.32
57.89
64.23
69.22
75.47
82.43
79.26
85.34
SO. 23
55.06
34.13
56.98
60.50
64.10
71.36
76.56
81.19
81.51
83,08
53.37
54,16
S2.41
60.52
61.29
65.95
71.52
79.63
80.73
83.31
90.09
194.29
226.88
214.17
224.95
240.60
238,21
280.19
307.56
327.52
322,78
345,79
88.96
83.01
83.92
94.11
107.99
103.74
82.71
98.40
90.25
81.66
85.03
97.58
106.79
98.38
88.84
97,39
88.52
79.20
88.18
103.25
107,47
88.10
90,63
98.84
338,15
327.39
344.29
387.71
432.86
394.30
342,08
390.76
41.74
43.71
1S2.1S
130.03
179.34
193 .78
190.70
196.17
183.12
234.96
216.25
205.34
(JUNE 1978)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Monthly
Quarterly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
10.
Mar.
Apr.
May^
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Annual
Dec.
IQ
CONTRACTS AND ORDERS FOR PLANT AND EQUIPMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
( B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS)
II Q
III
Q
IV Q
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
1947...
1948,..
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1.50
1.31
1.60
3.43
2.51
2.84
2.20
2.50
3.35
3.65
1.72
1.42
1.60
3.51
2.55
2.88
2.24
2.72
3,26
3.55
1.66
1.41
1.74
3.19
2.59
2.64
1.91
3.15
3.28
3.52
1.84
1.21
1.74
3.21
2.56
2.88
1.96
2.93
3.40
3.15
1.59
1.25
2.16
4.36
2.39
2.76
2.00
2.80
3.56
3.29
1.84
1.37
2.09
2.98
2.69
2.16
2.05
2.99
3.60
3.13
1.68
1.26
2.53
2.84
2.76
2.66
2.15
2.97
3.43
3.06
1.60
1.36
3.20
2.73
2.48
2.23
2.15
3.15
3.41
3.13
1.59
1.49
3.01
2.36
3.34
2.57
2,31
3.33
3.33
2.83
1.62
1.43
2.71
2.63
2.50
2.72
2.43
3.20
3.34
2.89
1.60
1.61
2,72
2.63
2.36
2.34
2.25
3.45
3.79
2.89
1.59
1.46
3.00
2.83
2.83
2.14
2.40
3,45
3.58
2.74
4.88
4.14
4.94
10.13
7.65
8.36
6.35
8.37
9.89
10.72
5.27
3.83
5.99
10.55
7.64
7.80
6.01
8.72
10.56
9.57
4.87
4.11
8.74
7.93
8.58
7.46
6.61
9.45
10.17
9.02
4.81
4.50
8.43
8.09
7.69
7,20
7.08
10.10
10.71
8.52
19.83
16.58
28.10
36.70
31.56
30.82
26.05
36.64
41.33
37,83
1958...
1959...
1960. ..
1961. ..
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
2.77
3.09
3.27
3.48
3.62
3.80
4.70
4.89
5.81
5.30
6.07
2.67
3.19
3.35
3.40
3.94
3.91
4.24
4.93
6.28
5.69
8.14
2.66
3.73
3.27
3.25
3.65
3.88
4.43
5.22
6.14
5.81
10.19
2.69
3.35
3.52
3.27
3.85
3.98
4.46
5.25
6.41
5.70
8.35
2.72
3.46
3.51
3.22
3.68
4.36
4.82
5.18
6.34
5.88
7.20
2.85
3.54
3.41
3.41
3.61
3.99
4.95
5.10
6.21
6.11
7.34
2.75
3.61
3.41
3.49
3.65
3.96
4.64
5.27
6.64
6.05
8.42
3.13
3.22
3.41
3.67
3.66
4.07
4.69
5.08
6.22
6.26
8.45
3.14
3.63
3.44
3.43
3.64
4.20
4.75
5.49
6.79
6.09
7.64
3.04
3.50
3.34
3.51
3.73
4.28
4.79
5.51
6.20
6.19
9.62
3.00
3.30
3.20
3.72
4.00
4.50
5.10
5.45
6.14
6.22
8,19
2.91
3.49
3,49
3.43
4.08
4.56
5.17
5.82
6.14
6.40
9.01
8.10
10.01
9.89
10.13
11.21
11.59
13.37
15.04
18.23
16.80
24.40
8.26
10.35
10.44
9.90
11.14
12.33
14.23
15.53
18.96
17.69
22.89
9.02
10.46
10.26
10.59
10.95
12.23
14.08
15.84
19.65
18.40
24.51
8.95
10.29
10.03
10.66
11.81
13.34
15.06
16.78
18.48
18.81
26.82
34.33
41.11
40.62
41.28
45.11
49.49
56.74
63.19
75.32
71.70
98.62
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972,..
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
9.31
9.15
8.21
8.87
11.30
13.94
13.09
14.35
9.70
8.91
3.97
9.37
12.16
14.40
12.39
13.97
8.82
8.53
9.12
10.20
12.25
14.79
11.98
15.10
10.20
8.01
8.95
9.96
12.25
13.96
13.46
14.29
9.48
8.11
8.70
11.06
13.03
15.38
14.07
13.41
9.10
7.93
9.92
9.62
12.97
14.23
13.84
15.82
8.85
8.17
7.96
10.58
13.00
16.32
12.66
15.97
9.04
7.74
8.93
9.87
13.27
15.10
14.19
14.81
9.88
7.93
9.47
11.33
13.14
15.65
12.49
16.43
9.11
7.28
8.68
10.92
14.55
14.91
12.28
16.85
8.93
8.14
9.36
11.17
14.63
13.46
12.54
15.78
8.79
9.00
9.71
11.43
13.97
14.71
11.80
16.09
27.83
26.59
26.30
28.44
35.71
43.13
37.46
43.42
28.78
24.05
27.57
30.64
38.25
43.57
41.37
43.52
27. 77
23.84
26.36
31.78
39.41
47.07
39.34
47.21
26.83
24.42
27.75
33.52
43.15
43.08
36.62
48.72
111.21
98.90
107.98
124.38
156.52
176.85
154.79
182.87
20.
CONTRACTS AND ORDERS FOR PLANT AND EQUIPMENT IN 1972 DOLLARS
( B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS)
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
1947 . . .
1948...
1949...
1950.,.
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955.,.
1956..,
1957..,
3.66
2.94
3.63
6.79
4.88
5.56
4.12
4.68
5,85
5,89
4.19
3.19
3.64
6.92
4.97
5.61
4.20
5.08
5.65
5.70
4.02
3.15
3.92
6.28
5.04
5.11
3.57
5.85
5.67
5.62
4.45
2.71
3.93
6.29
4.97
5.53
3.67
5.42
5.83
5.02
3.79
2.81
4.86
8.37
4.62
5.27
3,74
5.19
6.05
5.22
4.39
3.07
4.68
5.80
5.21
4.10
3.84
5.49
6.11
4.96
3.93
2.83
5.62
5.54
5.36
5.00
4.03
5.43
5.79
4.34
3.68
3.07
6.93
5.33
4.81
4.18
4.04
5.71
5.72
4.93
3.61
3.38
6.42
4.61
6.39
4.77
4.35
5.94
5.51
4.44
3.66
3.25
5.70
5.14
4.89
5.03
4.56
5.70
5.49
4.52
3.60
3.63
5.66
5.14
4.59
4.37
4.23
6.10
6.16
4.51
3.59
3.32
6.04
5.49
5.47
4.00
4.49
6.07
5.80
4,28
11.87
9.28
11.19
19.99
14.89
16.28
11.89
15.61
17.17
17.21
12.63
8.59
13.47
20.46
14.80
14.90
11.25
16.10
17.99
15.20
11.22
9.28
18.97
15.48
16.56
13.95
12.42
17.08
17.02
14.21
10.85
10.20
17.40
15,77
14.95
13.40
13.28
17.87
17.45
13,31
46,57
37.35
61.03
71.70
61.20
58.53
48.84
66.66
69.63
59.93
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965.,.
1966...
1967...
1968...
4.34
4,80
5.00
5.37
5.55
5.79
7.12
7.34
8.58
7.46
8.29
4.18
4.95
5.12
5.22
6.05
5.97
6.42
7.39
9.22
7.99
9.63
4.17
5.79
4.98
4.96
5.60
5.93
6.70
7.81
8.98
8.15
11.98
4.21
5.20
5.38
5.03
5.88
6.07
6.74
7.85
9.32
7.98
9.73
4.25
5.34
5.38
4.95
5.63
6.66
7.27
7.74
9.17
8.22
8.49
4.46
5.44
5.22
5.23
5.52
6.07
7.48
7.59
8.95
8.53
8.65
4.30
5.53
5.24
5.34
5.59
6.02
7.01
7.84
9.54
8.43
9.87
4.90
4.93
5.23
5.63
5.60
6.19
7.08
7.54
8.92
8.70
9.97
4.92
5.57
5.29
5.26
5.57
6.36
7.16
8.15
9.71
8.46
8.93
4.76
5.37
5.13
5.38
5.68
6.48
7.23
8.17
8.83
8.58
11.22
4.68
5.05
4.93
5,71
6.11
6.83
7.69
8.06
8.71
8.59
9.50
4.52
5.34
5,37
5.26
6.24
6.91
7.80
8.61
8.67
8.80
10.46
12.69
15.54
15.10
15.55
17.20
17.69
20.24
22.54
26.78
23.60
29.90
12.92
15,98
15.98
15.21
17.03
18.80
21.49
23.18
27.44
24.73
26.87
14.12
16.03
15.76
16.23
16.76
18.57
21.25
23.53
28.17
25.59
28.77
13.96
15.76
15.43
16.35
18.03
20.22
22.72
24.84
26.21
25.97
31.18
53.69
63.31
62.27
63.34
69.02
75.28
85.70
94.09
108.60
99.89
116.72
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973.,.
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
10.86
10.11
8.58
8.99
11.17
12.91
9.93
10.40
11.10
9.76
9.30
9.47
11.93
13.19
9.36
10.18
10.07
9.30
9.36
10.29
11.93
13.25
8.98
10.73
11.55
8.71
9.24
10.03
11.80
12.47
10.01
10.38
10.81
8.74
8.95
11.12
12,57
13.31
10.45
9.59
10.31
8.52
10.19
9.63
12.51
12.14
10.23
11.15
9.97
8.70
8.18
10.57
12.51
13.56
9.35
11.28
10.14
8.24
9.10
9.84
12.75
12.35
10.46
10.48
11.00
8.40
9.67
11.23
12.59
12.54
9.22
11.48
10.17
7.65
8.87
10.84
13.84
11.78
8.98
11.76
9.90
8.56
9.58
11.06
13.88
10.56
9.12
10.95
9.75
9.44
9.91
11.25
13.15
11.37
8.61
11.16
32.03
29.17
27.24
28.75
35.03
39.35
28.27
31.31
32.67
25.97
28.38
30.78
36.88
37.92
30.69
31.12
31.11
25.34
26.95
31.64
37.85
38.45
29.03
33.24
29.82
25.65
28.36
33.15
40.87
33.71
26.71
33.87
125,63
106.13
110.93
124.32
150.63
149.43
114.70
129.54
24.
VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS , CAPITAL GOODS INDUSTRIES,
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
N O N D E F E N S E , IN CURRENT DOLLARS
TOTAL FOR P E R I O D
3.947 ..
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1.28
1.13
1.32
3.06
2.18
2.57
1.78
2.09
2.72
2.96
1.43
1.22
1.42
3.09
2.25
2.43
1.86
2.29
2.55
2,96
1.45
1.21
1.43
2.92
2.30
2.29
1.56
2.62
2.68
2.83
1.62
1.02
1.49
2.88
2.22
2.41
1.65
2.30
2.82
2.61
1.31
1.08
1.88
2.74
2.04
2.30
1.61
2.31
2.99
2.63
1.57
1.13
1.81
2.56
2.23
1.90
1.65
2.47
3.02
2.53
1.38
1.06
2.22
2.46
2.36
2.09
1.75
2.43
2.77
2.52
1.36
1.13
2.81
2.35
2.07
1.84
1.74
2.59
2.84
2.56
1.38
1.26
2.64
2.11
2.20
1.88
1.94
2.57
2.84
2.42
1.39
1.19
2.40
2.40
2.19
1.80
1.93
2.64
2.88
2.36
1.40
1.25
2.37
2.38
1.97
1.78
1.83
2.77
3.21
2.33
1.43
1.20
2.68
2.37
2.19
1.76
1.95
2.87
3.07
2.16
4.16
3.56
4.17
9.07
6.73
7.29
5.20
7.00
7.95
8.75
4.50
3.23
5.18
8.18
6.49
6.61
4.91
7.08
8.83
7.77
4.12
3.45
7.67
6.92
6.63
5.81
5.43
7.59
8.45
7.50
4.22
3.64
7.45
7.15
6.35
5.34
5.71
8.28
9.16
6.85
17^00
13.88
24.47
31.32
26.20
25.05
21.25
29.95
34.39
30.87
1958...
1959, ..
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
2.28
2.62
2.73
2.74
3.06
3.21
3.94
4.13
4.79
4.43
5*06
2.16
2.70
2.83
2.76
3.27
3.29
3.52
4.06
5.25
4.69
7.04
2.21
3.06
2.78
2.76
2.92
3.34
3.77
4.40
5.17
4.73
8.99
2.25
2.79
2.90
2.73
3.20
3.35
3.72
4.34
5.33
4.78
7.66
2.26
2.92
2.89
2.66
3.02
3.49
4.12
4.23
5.37
4.88
5.93
2.28
3.00
2.87
2.81
2.97
3.33
4.23
4.38
5.31
5.03
6.03
2.29
3.03
2.78
2.94
3.00
3.36
3.90
4.46
5.57
5.13
7.10
2.46
2.79
2.78
3.08
2.99
3.47
3.94
4.34
5.20
5.24
6.71
2.56
3.04
2.75
2.91
3.06
3.53
3.92
4.50
5.46
4.99
6.24
2.48
2.93
2.69
2.94
3.11
3.54
4.01
4.63
5.36
5.04
8.01
2.58
2.74
2.60
3.04
3.34
3.45
4.06
4.72
5.15
5.12
6.94
2.47
2.96
2.86
2.88
3.15
3.61
4.15
5.05
5.19
5.40
7.53
6.65
8.38
8.34
8.26
9.25
9.84
11.23
12.59
15.21
13.85
21.09
6.79
8.71
8.66
8.20
9.19
10.17
12.07
12,95
16,01
14.69
19.62
7.31
3.86
8.31
8.93
9.05
10.36
11.76
13.30
16.23
15.36
20.05
7.53
8.63
8.15
8.86
9.60
10.60
12.22
14.40
15.70
15.56
22.48
28.28
34.58
33.46
34.25
37.09
40.97
47.28
53.24
63.15
59.46
83.24
1969...
1970...
1971.,.
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
7.18
7.13
6,81
7.40
9.54
12.32
11.65
11.13
8.36
7.13
7.38
8.19
10.26
12.64
10.78
11.44
7.57
6.92
7.48
8.63
10.64
13.12
10.25
11.89
9.15
6.29
7.28
8.34
10.89
12.64
10.85
11.85
7.77
6.82
7.26
9.39
11.14
12.62
10.56
12.21
7.76
6.48
8.37
8,16
10.77
12.48
10.28
12.35
7.44
6.70
6.65
9.00
10.96
14.02
10.79
12.90
7.78
6.38
7.18
8.47
10.90
13.38
10.64
12.35
8.51
6.61
8.10
9.59
11.27
13.47
10.81
13.24
7.56
6.43
7.46
9.28
12.19
11.97
10.83
13.80
7.78
6.82
7.88
9.55
12.39
11.82
11.23
12.86
7.03
7.57
8.32
9.78
12.13
11.61
10.48
13.70
23.11
21.18
21.67
24.22
30.44
38.08
32.68
34.46
24.63
19.59
22.91
25.89
32.80
37.74
31.69
36.41
23.73
19.69
21.93
27.06
33.13
40.87
32.24
38.49
22.37
20.82
23.66
28.61
36.76
35.40
32.54
40.36
93.89
81.28
90.17
105.78
133.13
152.09
129.15
149.72
NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 1968.
(JUNE 1978)
97
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Feb.
Jan.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Q
II Q
IIIQ
IV Q
Annual
25 , C H A N G E I N MANUFACTURERS 1 U N F I L L E D ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES'
{BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
0.21
-0.09
-1.79
0.34
0.55
-0.64
-0.76
0.36
-0.88
2.33
2.25
1.80
-2.18
-1.19
0.81
1.48
-1.73
-0.50
0.21
-0.41
3.91
0.97
0.65
-2.25
-1.00
0.65
1.90
-1.70
-0.01
-Q.27
-0.30
2.18
0.80
0.85
-3.49
0.30
1,18
0,12
-1.41
-0.49
-0.44
0.34
1.97
1.32
-0.56
-2.54
1.31
1,47
-0.16
-1.91
-0.04
-0.61
0.43
1.12
0.81
-0.65
-1.85
-0,82
1.16
0.25
-1.45
0.06
-0.86
0.26
1.29
0.45
-0.48
-1.94
-0.06
1.87
0.07
-1.44
-0.84
0.52
-1.07
0.21
-0.77
0.54
0.86
0.95
1.84
0.28
0.53
-0.34
-0.42
-0.64
0.15
-0.42
0.82
1.12
0.84
1.43
0.94
-0,61
0.20
0.24
-0.23
0.14
-0.16
-0.20
1.23
0.88
2.17
1.57
-0.16
0.11
-0.07
-0.45
0.36
0.02
0.02
1.56
0.78
1.75
0.61
-1.20
-0.02
0.11
0.41
0.40
-0.43
0,14
0.60
0.71
1.09
0.40
0.63
-0,26
1.16
0.31
0.15
0.58
0.57
1.11
1.38
2.30
0.26
0.88
0.12
0.82
-0.81
0.07
0.54
0.10
1.24
1.36
0.82
1.06
1.72
0.78
-0.04
-0.38
0.32
0.12
0.22
0.86
1.30
0.45
0.40
0.49
2.50
-1.40
-0.51
0.35
3.62
3.09
-2.55
0.38
1.03
-0.89
-1.29
1.08
3.59
4.99
-1.80
0.06
0.12
-0,79
-1.26
1.09
3.02
3.S2
-2.51
0.26
-0.06
-1.06
-0.79
0.54
1.78
3.72
-0.64
0.67
-0.07
-1.46
-0.08
0.64
2.81
5.56
-1.30
-1.36
0,65
-0.75
0.80
2.50
2.93
2.69
-1.06
0.11
0.08
-1.02
0,43
1.23
3.50
-1.16
-1.68
1.36
0.12
-0.25
0.84
1.51
4. 08
-0.88
-0.25
0.71
-0.42
0.01
-1.30
0.46
3.31
2.18
-0.52
-1.83
0,36
1.22
-0.86
-0.3S
-0.34
-1.10
0.43
2.42
0 '. 7 8
1.31
-0.23
-0.17
-0.14
-0,96
0,41
3.91
1.97
-0.80
-2.49
1.19
0.41
-0.87
1938...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
-2.39
0.74
-1.55
-0.34
0.42
0.89
1.31
1.01
1.93
0.04
-1.38
-1.16
1.41
-0.89
0.14
0.59
1.14
0.70
1.12
1.75
0.23
0.34
-0.50
0.90
-1.25
-0.30
-0.46
1.40
0.82
0.84
2.39
-0.45
1.95
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1973,..
1976...
1977...
1978,.,
0,47
-0.84
1.16
0,29
2.63
4.02
-2.68
= 1.04
0.89
-1.06
0.85
0.66
3.17
3.89
-2.51
-0.35
0.76
-0.75
0.02
0.51
4.34
3.08
-3.33
0.99
1 9 4 9 , ..
1950...
1951...
1932...
19B3...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
27.
1947
1948. ..
1949...
1950...
1951...
1932...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1936...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1963...
1966...
1967, ,,
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1973...
1976...
1977...
1978,..
-0.33
-0,99
0,58
5.41
0.59
1.73
™2,46
1949, .,
1950...
1951...
1932...
1953...
1954. ..
1955...
1956...
1957. ..
1938...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964. ..
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970. .,
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
-0.26
-0.93
0.45
4.35
0.85
0.45
-2.21
0.86
0.65
-0.38
-0.39
0.13
-1.21
O.S5
2.78
1.70
-0.38
-1.76
0.42
0.68
-0.92
-0.42
0.10
-0.33
2.81
1.34
1.10
-2.64
-0.63
0.88
1.17
-1.61
-0,16
-0.64
0.34
1.46
0.86
-0.56
-2.11
0.14
l.SO
0.03
-1.6Q
-0.07
-0.53
-0.32
0,57
1.58
-0.32
1.02
1.46
0.37
1.11
1.16
-1.33
1.02
-1.23
-0.17
0.18
1.14
0.94
0.99
2.02
-0.06
0.30
-0.33
0.11
-0.65
0.17
-0.43
0.39
1.07
0.89
1.81
Q.93
-0.08
-0.06
0.40
0.09
0.30
0.06
0.24
1.09
0.96
1.71
0.42
0.10
0.28
0.08
-0.30
0.32
0.75
0.0
1.04
1.37
0.55
0.86
1.12
-0.36
0.40
-0,57
0.16
0.13
0.44
1.04
1.05
1.32
O.S4
0,36
-0.3S
0.71
0.54
2.3S
2.98
-2.29
-0.96
1.75
0.71
-0.88
0.68
0.49
3.38
3.66
-2.84
-0.13
1.22
-1.03
-1.02
0.84
3.41
3.90
-2.29
0.23
0.17
-1.09
-0.02
1.23
2,51
3.99
-1.00
-0.19
-0.03
-0.19
0.69
1.70
3.52
-1.44
-0.96
1.27
0.51
-0,80
0.06
1.06
3.20
2.53
-1.77
0.30
VALUE OF M A N U F A C T U R E R S ' NEW O R D E R S , CAPITAL GOODS I N D U S T R I E S , N O N D E F E N S E , IN 1972 DOLLARS 2
( B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS)
3.57
2.77
3.27
6.13
4.43
4.79
3.53
4.31
4.48
4.77
3.58
2.74
3.27
S.78
4.51
4.50
2.95
4. 90
4.70
4.54
3.98
2.30
3.40
5,68
4.36
4.70
3.11
4.30
4.88
4.18
3.22
2.45
4.29
5,40
4.00
4.45
3.05
4.32
5.12
4.20
3.82
2.58
4.11
5.04
4.40
3.64
3.12
4.59
5.15
4.04
3.32
2.41
4.97
4.34
4.66
3.99
3.32
4.49
4.73
4.01
3.19
2.58
6.15
4.64
4.08
3.51
3.30
4.74
4.80
4.05
3.19
2,89
5.69
4,15
4.34
3.58
3.69
4.63
4.73
3.80
3.18
2.74
5.07
4.72
4.34
3.42
3,67
4.74
4.76
3.69
3.20
2.88
4.96
4.68
3.89
3.36
3.47
4,94
5.25
3.64
3.24
2.77
5.41
4.66
4.32
3.33
3.69
5.09
5.00
3.38
10.34
8.07
9.58
17.99
13.24
14.36
9.86
13. IS
14.00
14.11
11.02
7.33
11.80
16.12
12.76
12.79
9,28
13.21
IS. 15
12.42
9.70
7.88
16.81
13.63
13.08
11.08
10.31
13.86
14.26
11.86
9.62
8.39
15.44
14.06
12.53
10.13
10.83
14.77
15.91
10.71
3.56
4.05
4.12
4.14
4.63
4.85
5.93
6.15
7.04
6.21
6.93
3.37
4.17
4.26
4.16
4.95
4.99
5.28
6.04
7.68
6.56
8.15
3.45
4.71
4.20
4.16
4.41
5.07
5.66
6.55
7.54
6.61
10.38
3.49
4.28
4.36
4.13
4.82
5.08
5.56
6.46
7.74
6.68
8.80
3.51
4.47
4.36
4.03
4.55
5.28
6.17
6.28
7.76
6,81
6.79
3.54
4.56
4.34
4.25
4.49
5.02
6.34
6.48
7.64
7.01
6.90
3.56
4.58
4,20
4.45
4.53
5,06
5.83
6.60
7.99
7.14
8.10
3.82
4.22
4.20
4.67
4.52
5.23
5.89
6.42
7.44
7.28
7.64
3.99
4.59
4.16
4.41
4.63
5.31
5.86
6.64
7.79
6.93
7.07
3.86
4.43
4.07
4.45
4.69
5.33
6.00
6.84
7.60
6.98
9.06
4.00
4.14
3.94
4.60
5.05
5.19
6.06
6.96
7.27
7.06
7.83
3.82
4.47
4.34
4.37
4.76
5.41
6.20
7.44
7.30
7.41
8.50
10.38
12.93
12.58
12.46
13.99
14.91
16.87
18.74
10.54
13.31
13.06
12.41
13,86
15.38
18.07
19.22
23.14
11.37
13.39
12. SG
13.33
13.68
15.60
17.58
19.66
20.50
22.49
21.35
22,81
11.68
13.04
12.35
13.42
14.50
15.93
18.26
21.24
22.17
21.45
8.09
7.70
7,04
7.49
9.43
11.50
8.89
8.16
9.39
7.67
7,58
8,28
10.10
11.72
8.21
8,41
1.49
7.44
7.62
8.71
10.41
11.90
7.78
8.49
10.23
6.72
7.46
8.40
10.53
11.41
8.16
8.69
8.68
7.25
7.42
9.43
10.79
11,14
7.98
8,76
8.64
6.88
8, 55
8.17
10.44
10.78
7.72
8.77
8.23
7.04
6.80
. 8.99
10,60
11.83
8.03
9.17
8.59
6.72
7.27
8.45
10.57
11.08
7.96
8.78
9.33
6.93
8.24
9.51
10.89
10.95
8.05
9.28
8.29
6.70
7.58
9.22
11.68
9.60
7.97
9.66
8.49
7.08
8.01
9.44
11.84
9.33
8.19
8.94
7.62
7.83
8.45
9.61
11. S3
9.03
7.68
9.53
25.97
27.55
20.85
23,43
26.00
26.15
24.88
25.06
33.33
23.86
26.22
1,074
1,200
1,137
1,834
1,638
1,516
1,460
1,417
1,664
1,444
1,168
1,032
1,379
1,171
1,976
1,481
1,483
1,506
1,411
1,684
1,401
1,173
1,039
1,501
1,292
1,945
1,352
1,412
1,498
1,433
1,708
1,408
1,147
1,090
1,450
1,319
1,174
1,441
1,341
2,052
2,042
1,359
1,408
1,425
1,412
1,730
1,375
1,174
1,170
1,6S7
1,460
1,183
1,361
1,244
1,603
1,361
1,370
1,067
1,380
1,107
1,667
1,303
1,226
1,278
1,456
1,820
1,433
1,378
1,123
1,520
1,108
1,620
1,109
1,312
1,443
1,534
1,517
1,423
1,394
1,056
1,466
1,154
1,590
1,289
1,166
1,524
1,689
1,448
1,438
1,352
1,091
1,554
1,769
1,085
1,828
1,705
1,305
1,741
1,561
1,319
1,910
1,524
1,264
1,986
2,494
2,390
2,289
2,334
2,365
2,249
2,084
2,481
1,451
1,032
1,262
1,752
904
1,452
1,555
993
1,427
22.26
19.38
25.46
22.81
22.24
24.48
29.94
35.12
NEW PRIVATE H O U S I N G UNITS STARTED, TOTAL 3
( A N N U A L R A T E , THOUSANDS)
1,052
1,385
1,196
1,883
1,928
1,388
1,484
1,358
1,757
1,441
1,151
1,607
1,005
1,405
20.69
22.31
26.93
32.06
33.86
24.04
27.23
40.68
31.67
33,63
61.80
31.63
48.36
40.28
34.99
58.42
49.10
43.97
52.67
30.55
51.82
S6.03
61,82
70.78
78.86
90,79
82.68
23.39
96.15
24.40
104,07
83.96
92.02
105.70
128.81
130.27
96.62
106.64
21.61
24.04
28.27
3S.05
27.96
23,84
28,13
AVERAGE FOR PBRIOD
1,532
1,303
1,603
1,821
1,456
1,483
1,348
1,618
1,580
1,234
1,191
1,571
1,190
1,662
1,605
1,386
1,513
1,342
1,610
1,490
1,266
1,204
1,557
1,19S
1,785
,561
1,324
,475
,383
1,730
1,434
1,212
1,162
1,447
1,218
1,824
1,900
1,330
1,476
1,343
1,80?
1,431
1,184
1,146
1,053
1,321
1,168
,898
,682
,462
,483
,395
,702
,429
1,164
1,101
1,464
1,317
2,013
1,377
1,391
1,434
1,448
1,714
1,369
1,163
1,380
1,350
1,496
1,998
1,419
1,353
1,380
1,498
1,704
1,325
1,175
1,355
1,329
1,500
2,121
1,334
1,443
1,324
1,563
1,625
1,313
1,193
1,191
1,498
1,271
1,228
1,483
1,641
1,467
1,478
1,265
1,304
1,408
1,236
1,503
1,247
1,382
1,404
1,588
1,550
1,488
1,194
1,248
1,40S
1,337
1,547
1,197
1,335
1,450
1,614
1,562
1,529
1,086
1,364
1,512
1,374
1,430
1,344
1,312
1,517
1,639
1,569
1,432
1,119
1,407
1,495
1,451
1,540
1,097
1,429
1,324
1,763
1,455
1,482
1,046
1,421
1,556
1,472
1,355
1,246
1,415
1,533
1,779
1,524
1,452
843
1,491
1,569
1,593
1,416
1,246
1,385
1,622
1,622
1,486
1,460
1,598
1,601
1,063
1,365
1,564
1,491
1,484
1,656
990
1,308
1,548
1,128
1,648
1,337
1,240
1,361
1,411
1,647
1,406
1,381
1,082
1,455
1,583
1,290
1,528
1,385
1,368
1,517
2,083
2,252
2,382
1,426
1,121
1,468
1,513
1,087
1,508
2,123
1,316
1,226
1,410
2,051
1,142
1,260
1,546
1,507
1,534
2,041
2,481
1,874
1,150
1,264
1,753
1,381
1,580
2,128
2,266
2,026
2,254
2,067
1,358
1,399
2,158
1,229
1,647
2,182
2,421
1,724
1,026
1,360
1,680
1,327
1,893
2,049
2,485
1,677
1,070
1,344
1,662
961
1,538
1,630
2,295
2,366
1,526
975
1,321
1,824
j,,349
1,525
1,201
1,737
1,689
1,347
: '339
fcSss
,580
,612
,279
1,192
1,716
1,432
1,221
1,171
1,265
1,344
1,430
1,908
1,420
1,446
1,402
1,532
1,627
1,323
1,173
1,194
1,530
1,269
1,259
1,470
1,639
1,488
1,468
1,270
1,214
1,456
1,387
1,506
1,213
1,359
1,430
1,672
1,529
1,481
1,084
1,397
1,521
1,534
1,437
1,185
1,388
1,573
1,631
1,498
1,523
931
1,446
1,582
1,314
1,517
1,252
1,313
1,463
1,603
1,529
1,473
1,165
1,292
1,508
1,678
1,236
1,826
1,345
1,313
1,411
1,483
1,312
1,707
1,467
1,434
2,020
2,406
2,378
2,241
2,139
1,513
1,071
1,460
2,094
2,372
2,202
2,424
2,016
1,203
1,250
1,570
1,642
1,024
1,342
1,722
2,052
2,357
2,045
1,586
976
1,380
'this series contains revisions beginning with 1958. a This series contains revisions beginning with 1968.3 This series contains revisions
beginning with 1975.
31.76
23.22
1,252
1,419
1,384
2,051
1,257
1,438
1,346
1,559
1,632
1,289
1,191
2,221
-0,16
-0.58
1.32
2,33
0.77
-1.17
-1.12
0.92
0.64
-1.13
TOTAL FOR PERIOD
3,19
2.56
3.04
6.08
4.30
5,07
3.38
3.94
4.82
4.80
28.
1947..,
1948...
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
-0.40
0.73
-1.24
0.77
2.60
2.72
-0.53
-1.67
0.56
0.26
-1.25
= 0.16
-0,30
-0.85
0.36
3.72
-0.01
0.42
-1.69
0.62
0.23
-0.02
1947...
1948...
1,338
1,160
1,538
(JUNE 1978)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Monthly
Quarterly
Year
Jan.
38.
1947. .
1948, .
1949. .
1950. .
1951 , .
1952. .
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
Annual
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Nov.
Oct.
Dec.
1 Q
CHANGE IN STOCKS OF MATERIALS AND S U P P L I E S ON HAND AND ON O R D E R , M A N U F A C T U R I N G 1
(BILLIONS OF DOLLARS)
II Q
IVQ
111 Q
AVERAGE
FOR PERIOD
.
.
.
.
0.86
0.67
-0.49
0.17
-1.06
0.56
0.41
-0.09
0.10
-1.48
1.12
0.18
-0.43
-0.08
-1.05
0.38
0.97
-0.62
0,38
-0.93
0.48
0.26
-0.24
-0.28
-0.66
0.52
-0.22
-0.50
-0.95
-0.77
0.80
1.12
-0.91
-1.24
-0.69
0.65
1.04
-0.98
-1.84
0.14
0.86
0.04
-0.58
-1.73
0.56
1.07
0.24
-0.93
-1.08
-0.18
0.71
0.22
-0.92
-1.25
0.09
1.20
0.34
-1.17
-1.31
0.85
0.42
-0.34
0.01
-0.88
0.46 .
0.34
-0.45
-1.34
-0.44
0.77
0.73
-0.82
-1.35
0.16
0.99
0.27
-1.01
-0.62
0.77
0.44
-0.65
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
-2.43
0.43
-0.98
-0.09
0.96
0.62
0.34
0.84
0.96
0.67
0.88
-1.01
1.33
-0.69
-0.38
0.18
0.30
0.06
0.74
1,19
0.15
0.52
-0.57
0.81
-1.17
-0.12
-0.21
0.57
0.31
0.66
1.59
-0.24
0.03
-0.55
0.39
-0.94
0.13
-0.63
0.80
0.26
0.06
0.97
0.20
0.05
-0.41
-0,02
-0.69
0.22
-0.17
0.36
0.35
0.44
0.99
0.01
-0.16
0.16
0.52
-0,45
0.09
-0.19
-0.17
0.48
0.42
1.34
0.48
-0.58
0.24
0.11
-0.46
0.37
-0.18
0.02
0.54
0.29
0.91
0.59
-0.76
0.17
0.13
0.21
0.81
-0.13
-0.08
0.42
0.15
1.15
0.71
0.31
0.32
0.80
0.07
0.04
0.16
0.29
1.01
0.69
0.27
0.39
0.20
0.20
0.48
-0.58
0.07
0.0
0.37
1.16
0.82
0.36
0.29
0.52
0.53
0.29
-0.26
0.32
-0.02
-0.06
0.84
0.58
0.22
0.55
0.52
0.07
-0.06
-0,67
1.15
0.03
0.0
0.69
1.01
0.08
0.87
0.61
-1.34
0.86
-0.95
-0.20
0.31
0.50
0.24
0.75
1.25
0.19
0.48
-0.27
0.30
-0.69
0.15
-0.33
0.33
0.36
0.31
1.10
0.23
-0.23
0.24
0.35
-0.06
0.41
-0.05
0.08
0.66
0.38
0.78
0.56
-0.08
0.27
0.24
-0.50
0.51
0.0
0.10
0.90
0.80
0.22
0.57
0.55
-0.27
0.43
-0.55
0.22
-0.02
0.25
0.54
0.56
0.84
0.39
0.18
1969., .
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
0.52
-0.65
1.03
0.62
2.45
2.77
-1.52
0.28
0.16
-0.41
0.31
0.73
2.27
3.16
-1.57
-0.14
0.66
-0.15
0.08
0.46
2.95
2.33
-2.72
1.54
0.81
-0.17
-0.34
0.31
2.21
2.78
-2.95
0.45
0.70
-0.20
-0.86
0.76
2.51
3.97
-1.78
1.10
0.14
-0.15
-1.30
0.51
2.13
3.48
-1.46
0.65
0.29
-0.62
-0.34
0.98
1.76
3.18
-0.63
0.19
-0.06
-0.36
-0.09
1.33
2.20
3.13
-0.56
-0.69
0.51
-0.07
-0.13
1.30
2.50
1.82
-0.61
0.51
0.67
-0.22
0.34
0.83
2.72
-0.41
0.10
0.48
-0.30
0.46
0.29
1.35
2.36
0.05
0.33
1.42
-0.18
0.37
0.53
1.04
2.80
-0.38
-0.44
0.41
0.45
-0.40
0.47
0.60
2.56
2.75
-1.94
0.56
0.55
-0.17
-0.83
0.53
2.28
3.41
-2.06
0.73
0.25
-0.35
-0.19
1.20
2.15
2.71
-0.60
0.0
0.06
0.20
0.39
1.07
2.63
-0.25
0,0
0.77
0.33
-0.18
-0.04
0.85
2.40
2.16
-1.15
0.52
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
-l".40
65.
MANUFACTURERS'
I N V E N T O R I E S OP F I N I S H E D GOODS, BOOK V A L U E , ALL M A N U F A C T U R I N G INDUSTRIES 1 ,
( B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS)
END OF PERIOD
6.13
7.73
9.33
8.99
9.33
12.48
12.45
13.62
13.55
14.20
16.35
6.32
7.84
9.52
9.03
9.49
12.55
12.40
13.64
13.61
14.39
16.40
6.43
7,96
9.64
9.09
9.65
12.64
12.41
13.71
13.65
14.48
16.52
6.57
8.02
9.62
9.08
9.98
12.57
12.47
13.56
13.60
14.59
16.56
6.69
8.13
9.53
9.03
10.43
12.33
12.66
13.46
13.62
14.82
16.72
6.83
8.22
9.52
9.10
10.91
12.34
12.80
13.47
13.62
15.24
16.78
7.10
8.43
9.39
8.79
11.55
12.31
12.93
13.45
13.61
15.42
16.89
7.28
8.53
9.25
8.57
12.05
12.35
13.14
13.32
13.72
15.71
16.92
7.37
8.80
9.13
8.68
12.34
12.36
13.31
13.28
13.75
15.96
16.88
7.57
8.95
9.12
8.85
12.32
12.33
13.47
13.32
13.82
16.02
16.86
7.55
8.99
8.92
9.17
12.22
12.32
13.57
13.28
13.88
16.21
16.74
7.54
9.15
8.98
9.22
12.28
12.33
13.62
13.46
14.01
16.19
16.75
6,43
7.96
9.64
9.09
9.65
12.64
12.41
13.71
13.65
14.48
16.52
6.83
8.22
9.52
9.10
10.91
12.34
12.80
13,47
13.62
15.24
16,78
7.37
8.80
9.13
8.68
12,34
12,36
13.31
13.28
13.75
15.96
16.88
7.54
9.15
8.98
9.22
12.28
12.33
13.62
13.46
14.01
16.19
16.75
7.54
9.15
8,98
9.22
12.28
12.33
13.62
13.46
14.01
16.19
16.75
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
. 16,88
16.34
17.32
18.55
18.98
16.81
16.38
17.54
18.67
18.94
16.80
16.43
17.71
18.61
19.02
16.58
16.58
18.11
18.71
19.26
16.51
16.47
18.20
18.75
19.44
16.18
16.83
18.66
18.69
19.87
16.14
16.84
18.59
18.92
19.96
16.29
16.95
18.56
18.94
19.95
16.33
17.08
18.62
18.80
20.11
16.80
16.43
17.71
13.61
19.02
16.51
16,47
18.20
18.75
19.44
16.18
16.83
18.66
18.69
19.87
16.33
17.08
18.62
18.80
20.11
20.03
20.94
20.06
20.28
20.36
20.49
20.52
20.64
20.72
16.33
17.08
18.62
18.80
20.11
20.06
20.86
20.03
20.94
20.49
20.72
21.60
20.28
20.72
21.48
21.17
22.14 '
21,60
24.51
23.58
25.16
25,16
26.39
27.45
26.41
24.29
26.80
27.56
22.37
24.86
26.89
28.50
22.53
22.85
25.72
27.24
22.00
24.00
26.70
27.89
22.23
22.73
25.49
27.22
22.04
23.33
26.50
27,65
21.10
21.86
21.60
21.82
23.01
21.17
22.14
21.42
21.76
21.10
21.86
21.18
21.72
21.12
21.74
23.31
16.51
16.62
18.36
18.70
19,63
20.21
21.18
16.34
16.82
18.37
18.83
19.76
20.04
20.74
16.67
16.54
17.90
18.73
19.04
19.95
21.06
21.62
27.05
28.76
27,05
28.76
1969....
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
28.77
29.04
29.94
30.15
30.31
31.54
31.85
32.71
33.26
34.40
35.85
37.08
42.78
48.82
52.43
30.54
33.48
34.56
36.39
36.98
43.74
49.09
53.05
31.25
34.19
34.59
34.92
35.80
39.33
32.99
34.66
35.84
36.98
31.25
34.19
34.49
34.86
35.72
38.86
49.02
49.65
34.88
35.90
34.88
35.90
38.18
48.12
38.18
48.12
49.68
49.68
54.11
54.11
1947...
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955. ..
1956...
1957. ..
49.21
49.98
69.
23.07
25.87
27,30
26.19
29.30
32.06
29.59
32.70
34.66
35.35
34.81
35.14
36.16
39.99
49.49
50.33
27.32
36.21
40.58
49.34
50,69
34.67
35.53
36.61
41.01
49.26
51.05
23.58
41.76
. 49.14
51.95
28.18
26.82
28.33
30.70
33.67
34.76
30.75
33.98
31.08
35.12
35.01
36.21
35.98
37.40
45.69
49.42
54.33
35.95
37.63
46.97
37.20
44.68
49.34
53.59
34.25
25.16
21.82
23,01
27.05
28.76
25.87
27.30
26.41
24.29
26.80
27.56
28.18
31.25
34.19
29.30
32.06
30.15
34.88
35.90
34.81
35.14
36.16
32.99
34.66
35.84
36.98
30.70
33.67
34.76
39.99
49.49
50.33
41.76
49.14
51.95
38.18
48.12
49.51
49.68
53.93
54.11
36.21
37.20
44.68
49.34
53.59
22.53
22,53
M A N U F A C T U R E R S ' M A C H I N E R Y A N D E Q U I P M E N T hALES A N D B U S I N E S S CONSTRUCTION
A V E R A G E FOR P E R I O D
1947. . .
1949
1950
.
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974. ..
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
...
33.49
32.31
31.30
31.39
31.93
31.02
28.29
33.24
28.36
28.22
34.39
39.51
41.24
39.34
40.39
27.34
34.20
40.62
40.62
41.84
40,01
42.51
33.54
30.45
30,86
35.05-
38.09
41.96
34.32
35.16
35.74
40.24
40.26
35.07
40.50
40.97
42.58
36.04
41.31
35.26
40.74
40.17
41.08
41.08
43.17
44.10
37.05
37.42
40.94
40.56
43.38
44,74
50.28
58.69
69.02
72.68
32.82
29.26
32.26
39.50
39.99
31.49
33.85
30.46
33.28
29.39
34.04
28.90
29.70
31.14
31.75
31.60
33.70
28.48
32.37
34.51
41.77
35.07
42.65
35.56
38.02
38,51
41.47
41.29
40.89
28.27
32.82
39.99
40.68
38.04
36.64
37.56
40.62
36.47
37.99
35,24
38.39
34.63
39.50
35.45
39.79
41.20
41.62
41.92
41.59
40.81
43.51
45.16
40.27
44.23
44.72
50.57
60.22
70.90
72.08
40.42
40.07
44 .82
45.51
46.07
46.87
52.58
40.58
45.66
46.60
53.35
42.53
39.90
36.71
41.00
40.60
42.41
44.34
50.23
57.47
97.03
50.04
58.39
68.05
72.80
93.57
99.04
103.69
101.90
115.62
126.89
151.64
162.70
159.22
100.96
106.39
102.25
114.98
125.42
153.54
163.42
164.46
68.12
73.16
51.32
61.01
71.08
71.47
61.24
71.24
71.89
61.38
72.83
45.10
48.18
94.10
54.64
64.06
74.94
74.52
95.80
55.26
65.42
75.80
73,56
96.96
106.00
103.76
104.91
118.29
141.51
159.62
159.59
174.95
108.80
101.98
107.14
117.38
144.54
165.51
159.50
174.51
107.83
101.00
106.51
118.18
146.60
167,94
161.60
175.12
47.82
53.98
62.02
74.35
94.81
95.94
93.53
93.09
103.72
105.33
104.04
116.54
129.68
154.05
159.94
166.91
102.48
105.95
102.27
116.42
133.79
154.41
159.93
167.83
102.67
105.43
103.72
116.73
134.86
156.27'
158.75
170.20
103.83
102.36
105.44
116.78
137.50
161.82
158.57
169,58
105.72
104.39
103.55
116.15
142.16
159.34
158.05
170.85
41.31
42.16
45.12
48.91
47.58
55.65
62.42
73.78
73.51
93.17
73.12
41.69
46.17
34.21
75.01
45.30
'This series contains revisions beginning with 1958. s This series contains revisions beginning with 1968.
40.65
42,90
45.16
48.45
55.66
66.65
74.33
74.63
30.48
29.06
34.93
48.65
57.15
68.95
75.05
77.93
98.14
95.12
106.93
101.58
107.81
120.92
151.70
168.36
159.51
176.88
106.46
102.67
114.32
122.31
149.98
162.66
158.50
184.22
31.84
33.35
28.55
32.26
38.84
40.95
28.64
33.24
39.45
40.54
35.11
34.91
39.23
40.76
41.71
41.37
41.25
40.36
45.33
46.51
52.42
95.14
61.21
71.72
72.16
94.19
101.24
105.14
102.73
115.71
127.33
• 153.08
162.02
163.53
102.99
104.58
103.81
116.64
135.38
157.50
159.08
169.20
45.52
47.86
54.76
62.83
74.58
31.14
28.21
34.51
41.66
39.57
32.47
28.96
32.72
38.75
40.76
35.62
40.58
35.67
39.50
40 .90
41.23
41.26
42.88
44.79
48.67
56.02
67.01
94.36
75.06
75.37
96.74
106.84
103.38
105.20
117.27
142.74
161.49
159.05
173.44
107.07
101.75
109.55
120.47
149.43
166,32
159.87
178.74
74.13
44.76
46.95
53.37
62.44
72.59
73.58
95.10
104.54
103.71
105.32
117.52
138.72
159.60
160.00
171.23
(JUNE 1978)
99
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Monthly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Quarterly
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Annual
Dec.
IQ
IIIQ
II Q
78. STOCKS OP MATERIALS AND SUPPLIES ON HAND AND ON ORDER, MANUFACTURING, IN CURRENT DOLLARS
(BILLIONS OP DOLLARS)
IV Q
END OF PERIOD
1947. . .
1948
19S1
1952
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
51.59
42.38
37.21
46.24
5D.33
51.76
41.32
37.77
46.65
30.27
51.86
39.84
38.90
46.83
49,83
51.78
38.79
39.28
47.80
49.22
52.16
37.86
39.76
48.06
48.97
51.88
37.19
40.28
47.84
48.47
50.93
36.43
41.09
48.97
47.55
49,69
35.74
41.74
50,01
46.57
47.85
35.88
42.59
50.05
45.99
46.12
36.44
43.66
50.29
45.06
45.04
36.27
44.37
50.51
44.14
43.79
36.35
45.57
50.85
42.97
51.86
39.84
38.90
46.83
49.83
51.88
37.19
40.28
47.84
48.47
47,85
3S.88
42.59
50.05
4S.99
43.79
36.35
45.57
50.85
42.97
43!?9
36. 3S
45.57
50.85
42,97
1950...
1959...
I960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
I960...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
40.54
40.12
43,92
38,19
41.86
41.32
44.03
51.02
37.84
67, SB
72.47
39.53
41.46
43.23
37.81
42,04
41.62
44,10
51.77
59.03
67.74
73,00
38.96
42.27
42.06
37,69
41.83
42.19
44.41
52.42
60,63
67.50
73.02
38.41
42.66
41.11
37,82
41.20
42.99
44.67
52.49
61.60
67.70
73.08
38.01
42.63
40.42
38,04
41.03
43.35
45.03
52,92
62.58
67,71
72,91
38.17
43.16
39.98
38.12
40.84
43.17
45.51
53.34
63.92
68.19
72,34
38.41
43.27
39.52
38.45
40.66
43.19
46.06
53.62
64.84
68.78
71,58
38.58
43.40
39.73
39.30
40.53
43,11
46.48
53.78
65.98
69.49
71.90
38,89
44.19
39,80
39.35
40.69
43.39
47.49
54.47
66.25
69.88
72.10
39.09
44.67
39.22
39.42
40.70
43.76
48.65
5S.29
66.61
70.1?
72.62
39.62
44.96
38.96
39.74
40.67
43.70
49.49
55.87
66.83
70.72
73.15
39.69
44.90
38.29
40,89
40.70
43.70
50.18
56.88
66.92
71.59
73.76
38.96
42.27
42.06
37.69
41.83
42.19
44.41
52.42
60.63
67. BO
73,02
38.17
43.16
39.98
38.12
4Q.84
43.1?
45.51
53.34
63.92
68.19
72.34
38.89
44.19
39.80
39.35
40,69
43.39
47.49
54.47
66.25
69.88
72.10
39,69
44.90
38.29
40.89
40.70
43.70
50.18
56.88
66.92
71.59
73.76
39.69
44.90
38.29
40.69
40.70
43.70
50.18
36.88
66.92
71.59
73.76
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
197S...
1976...
1977. . .
1978...
74.28
77.06
76.56
75.66
87.70
116.88
138,49
126.48
74.44
76.65
76,86
76.39
89.96
120.04
136.92
126.34
75.11
76.50
76.94
76.84
92.91
122.37
134.20
127.88
75.92
76.32
76,60
77.15
95.12
125.15
131.24
128.33
76.63
76.13
75.74
77.91
97.62
129.12
129.47
129.43
76.77
75.98
74.43
78.41
99.76
132.61
128.01
130.08
77.06
75.36
74.10
79.39
101.52
135.78
127.38
130,27
76.99
75,00
74.01
80.72
103.73
138.92
126.81
129.58
77.50
74.92
73.87
82.02
106.2.1
140.74
126.21
130.09
78.18
74.70
74,21
82.85
108. 95
140.33
126.31
130.57
77.88
75.16
74.50
84.20
111,32
140.39
126.64
131.99
77.70
75,52
75.04
85.24
114.11
140.01
126.20
132.40
75.11
76.50
76.94
76.84
92.91
122.37
134.20
127.88
76.77
75.98
74.43
78,41
99.76
132.61
128.01
130.08
77.50
74.92
73.87
82.02
106,23
140.74
126.21
130.09
77.70
75.52
75.04
85.24
114,11
140,01
126.20
132.40
77.70
75. S2
7S.Q4
85.24
114.11
140.01
126.20
132.40
85.
1947...
1943...
1949.,,
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
C H A N G E IN HONEY SUPPLY Ml { D E M A N D DEPOSITS PLUS C U R R E N C Y ) 2
(MONTHLY 8 ATB, PERCENT )
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
-0.27
0.27
0.43
0.33
-0.08
0.16
0,53
0.22
O.O
0.13
= 0.18
0.0
0,54
0.34
0.41
0.08
0.08
0.68
0.0
=0 . 0 7
0.55
-0,53
0.0
0.36
0.43
0.16
0.47
0.08
-0,22
0.15
0.07
0.73
-0.27
0.09
0.62
0.17
0.24
0.23
-0.46
0.22
0.22
0.0
0.54
-0.18
0.18
0.44
0.34
0.32
0.16
0,86
0.52
-0.15
0.0?
0.36
-0.09
-0.18
0.3S
0.34
0.40
0.0
0.15
-0.15
0.15
-0.07
0.09
0.18
-0.09
0.44
0.42
0.24
0.08
0.31
0.30
0.0
0.07
0.36
0.09
-0.18
0.35
0.42
0.32
0.08
0.31
0.0
-0.22
0.07
0.36
-0.09
-0.09
0.17
0.67
0.56
-0.08
0.15
0.15
0.37
-0.22
-0.09
-0.09
0.0
0.43
0.50
0.24
0.08
0.46
0.15
0.07
-0.22
0.35
-0.27
0.09
0.17
0.83
0.32
0.0
0.46
-0,22
0.22
-0,15
-0.18
-0.27
0.18
0.26
0.57
0,24
0.08
0.15
0.22
0.22
-0.29
...
-0.15
-0.09
0.39
0.40
0.30
0.16
0.10
0.33
0.12
0.0
0.54
-0.18
0.03
0.47
0.28
0.32
0.13
0.18
0.20
0.07
0.0
0.2?
0.06
-0.12
0.32
0.50
0.37
0.03
0.26
0.1S
0.05
-0.02
0.03
-0.21
0.09
0.29
0.63
0.26
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
-0.29
0.78
=•0.0?
0.14
0.13
0.40
0.26
0.31
0.70
-0.11
0.48
0.52
0.21
= 0,28
0.35
0.13
0.20
0.25
0.12
0.41
0.97
0.48
0.22
0.42
= 0.07
0.21
0.27
0.26
0.32
0.30
0.46
0.73
0.42
0.37
0.14
0.14
0.28
0.20
0.33
0.13
0.24
0.7S
-0.39
0,47
0.36
0.42
-0.20
0.34
0.0
0.39
0.63
0.06
-0.06
1.07
l.OS
0.6S
0.21
0.07
0.21
0.07
0.46
0.31
0.66
0.17
0.78
0.67
0.0
0.49
0.56
0.07
-0.13
0.39
0.69
0.24
-0.40
0.88
0.67
0.51
-0.28
0.35
0.20
-0.13
0.06
0.50
0.30
0.0
O.S5
0,56
0.29
-0.21
0.21
0.34
-0.07
0.26
0.56
0.72
0.57
0.65
0.61
0.43
-0.28
0.0
0.34
0.33
0.45
0.37
0.71
-0.34
0,59
0.66
0.57
-0.07
-0.07
0.41
0.40
0.71
0.43
0.35
0.06
0,27
0.85
0.14
-0.21
0.0
0.20
0.27
-0.25
0.06
0.59
0.23
0.43
0.85
0.15
0.47
-0,14
0,23
0.18
0.29
0.28
0.24
O.S2
0.53
0.46
0.46
0.26
-0,02
0.28
0.09
0.39
0.36
0.32
0.29
0.49
0.73
0.26
0.37
0.20
-0.11
0.24
0.58
0.42
0.06
0.69
0.61
0.38
-0.19
-0.02
0.32
0,33
1969...
1970...
1971...
1 9 7 2 ...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
0.44
0.77
0.50
0.73
0.94
0.48
-0.07
0.48
0.49
-0.38
0.86
0.85
0.19
0.48
0,04
0.68
0.29
0.67
0.76
0.97
0.0
0.62
0.78
0.47
0.24
0.62
0.62
0.58
0.31
0.22
-0.07
0.73
0.24
0.38
1.11
0.33
1.12
0.29
0,98
0.60
0.24
0.0
0.48
0.29
0.80
0.58
1.25
0.07
0.24
0.28
0.57
0.91
0.27
0.18
-0.03
0.20
0.05
0.89
0.52
0.90
0.19
0.25
0.45
0.56
0.19
0.70
0.17
0.77
-0.04
0.22
0.34
0.33
0,39
0.32
0.17
0.72
0.41
0.39
-0.17
1.08
0,29
0.28
0.17
0.48
0.90
0.61
0.85
0.16
0.05
0.50
0.39
1.23
0.71
0.18
-0.30
0.64
0.41
0.35
0.71
0.85
0.38
0.53
0.25
0.54
0.24
0.33
0.74
0.40
0.74
0.36
0.72
0.47
0.16
0.62
0.42
0,86
0,14
0.22
0.25
0.36
...
ola?
96 . MANUFACTURERS' U N F I L L E D QRDESS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES'
(BILLIONS OF 00LL&8S)
a. os
0.36
0.05
0.17
-0.22
0.0
...
-0!l2
-0.02
0.37
0.45
0.31
0.09
0,22
0.18
0.10
-0.06
0.29
0.SS
-0.02
0.43
0.79
0.31
0,14
0.0S
0.26
0.12
0.30
0.38
0.38
0.21
0.54
Q.65
0.24
0.37
0.24
0.81
0.67
0.39
0.13
0.63
0.26
0.42
0.53
0.73
0.48
0,38
0.34
0.50
0.30
END OP PERIOD
1947...
1941...
1949...
1950...
1931...
1952...
19 S 3 . . .
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
31.83
28.25
25.63
20.20
40.34
63.99
74.41
56.18
46.03
57.55
63.63
31.66
27.96
24.78
20.56
4 4 . S6
63.98
74,83
54,49
46.65
57.78
63.61
31.49
27.81
23.82
20.97
48.47
65.95
74.03
52,00
47.84
58.19
62.74
31.07
27.82
22.52
21.43
SI. 77
68.13
73.51
50.17
48.20
59.41
61.88
30.72
27.49
21.42
21.86
S4.2Q
68.34
73.42
48.38
48.54
59.96
61.24
30.32
28.22
20.18
22.63
S6.80
71.06
72.89
46.71
49.10
60.22
§9.99
29.56
28.58
19.30
24.96
59.04
72.87
70.71
45.52
49.91
61.70
58.26
29.06
28.80
18.89
28.87
60.01
73.52
68.46
44.52
50.56
63.60
56.56
29.05
28.53
18.59
31.06
60.81
74.37
64.97
44.82
51.74
63.72
55,15
28.56
28.09
18,93
33.03
62.13
73.80
62.43
46.13
53.21
63.56
53.24
28.52
27,48
19.36
34.14
62.94
73.16
60.58
4S.31
54.37
63.81
51.79
28.58
26.62
19.62
35.44
63.39
72.68
38.64
45.25
56.24
63.88
50.35
31.49
27.81
23,82
20.97
48.47
65.95
74,03
52.00
47.84
58.19
62.74
30.32
28.22
20.18
22.63
$6.80
71.06
72.89
46,71
49.10
60.22
S9.99
29.05
20.53
18.59
31.06
60.81
74.37
64.97
44.82
51.74
63.72
55.15
28.58
26.62
19.62
35.44
63.39
72.68
58.64
45.25
56.24
63.88
50.35
28.58
26.62
19.62
35.44
63.39
72.68
88.64
45. 23
S6.24
63.88
50.35
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
46.55
4S.3Q
47.83
42.17
44.79
46.86
52.58
64.70
78.22
94.61
99.64
45.39
46.72
46.93
42.31
45.38
48.00
53.28
65.82
79.98
94.84
99.98
44.88
47.62
45.68
42.02
44 .92
49.40
54.10
66.66
32.37
94.38
101.93
44.04
48.14
44.il
42.23
44.15
49.94
54.96
67.60
84.21
94.67
102.46
43.71
47.71
43.98
42.38
43.73
50.76
SS.08
68.44
85.63
95,61
101.84
43.91
47.95
43.75
42.52
43.57
50.55
57.31
69.32
87.80
97.18
101.69
44.02
47.88
43.30
42.87
43.59
S O . 57
58.87
70.10
89.55
97.79
100,48
44.00
47.99
43.71
43.27
43.16
50.71
59.47
70.81
90.64
98.19
101.11
43.73
49. IS
44.02
43,42
43.74
51.28
60.58
72.19
92.94
98.45
101.99
43.86
49.96
43.21
43.49
44.27
51.38
61.81
73.54
93.76
99.51
103.71
44.63
49.93
42.83
43.81
44.39
51.59
62.67
74.84
94.21
99.92
104.19
44.56
49.37
42.51
44.38
45.96
51.27
63.69
76.30
94.58
101.02
105.36
44.88
47.62
45.68
42.02
44.92
49.40
§4.10
66.66
82.37
94.38
101.93
43.91
47.95
43.75
42.52
4 3 , §7
50.55
57.31
69.32
87.80
97.18
101.69
43,73
49.15
44.02
43.42
43.74
51,28
60. 38
72.19
92.94
98.45
101.99
44.56
49.37
42.51
44.38
45.96
51.27
63.69
76.30
94.58
101.02
105.36
44.56
49.37
42.51
44.38
43.96
51.27
63.69
76.30
94.58
101.02
105.36
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
105.82
110.65
103.09
102.92
118.01
157.85
181.48
161.83
106.72
109,59
103.94
103.58
121.18
161.74
173.97
161.49
107.48
108.84
103,97
104.09
12S.52
164.82
175.64
162.48
109.98
107.44
103.46
104.44
129.14
167.90
173.09
162.86
111.00
106.54
102.16
105.52
132.74
172.90
171.29
162.92
111.12
105.76
100.90
106.61
135.76
176.52
168.77
163.19
111.05
104.70
100.11
107.15
137.54
180.24
168.13
163.86
110.98
103,24
100.03
107.80
140.35
185.80
166.83
162.50
111.63
102,49
100.82
110.29
143.28
188.49
165.77
162.61
111.72
101.48
101.25
111.52
146.77
187.32
164.08
163,98
111.84
101.22
102.09
113.02
150.85
186.45
163.83
164.69
111.49
101.93
102.63
115.38
153,82
184.16
162,87
166.44
107.48
108.94
103.97
104.09
125.52
164.82
175.64
162.48
111.12
105.76
100.90
106.61
135.76
176.52
168.77
163.19
111.63
102.49
100.82
110.29
143.28
188.49
165.77
162.61
111,49
101.93
102.63
115.38
153.82
184.16
162.87
166.44
111.49
101.93
102.63
115.38
153.82
184.16
162.87
166.44
*This series contains revisions beginning with T968.
100
a
This series contains revisions beginning with 1965.
1978)
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Monthly
Quarterly
Year
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
Annual
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
1 Q
II Q
0.39
0.07
-0.09
0.18
0.55
0.44
0.19
0.40
0.18
0.18
0.21
0.18
-0.14
0.07
0.24
0.59
0.36
0.23
0.34
0.11
0.20
0.07
-0,06
0.0
0.30
0.43
0.39
0.23
0.35
0.21
0.16
0,20
102. CHANGE IN HONEY SUPPLY M2 (DEMAND DEPOSITS AND CURRENCY PLUS TIME DEPOSITS AT COMMERCIAL
BANKS OTHER THAN LARGE CD'S)
(MONTHLY RATE , PERCENT)
III Q
IV Q
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
0.27
-0.14
0.20
0.33
0.37
0.12
0.29
0.50
0.11
0.37
0.28
0.0
0.0
0.54
0.20
0.50
0.18
0.29
0.61
0.0
0.21
0.49
-0.40
0,0
0.27
0.33
0.25
0.53
0.29
-0.11
0.22
0.37
0.63
-0.20
0.14
0.54
0.19
0.31
0,29
-0.06
0.27
0.27
0,16
0.48
-0.14
0.20
0.47
0.32
0.37
0.29
0.86
0.38
-0.05
0.31
0.34
0.0
-0.07
0.27
0.32
0.43
0.12
0.28
0.0
0.27
0.10
0.14
0.14
-0,07
0.26
0.51
0.30
0.23
0.51
0.27
0.11
0.31
0.55
0.14
-0.14
0.20
0.45
0.42
0.23
0.51
0.0
0.0
0.26
0,48
-0.07
-0.07
0.07
0.70
0.60
0.12
0.17
0.27
0.43
0.05
0.14
-0.07
0.0
0.26
0.44
0.30
0.29
0.45
0.16
0.11
0.10
0.41
-0.14
0.07
0.20
0.76
0.48
0.17
0.39
-0.05
0.27
0.10
0.0
-0.20
0.14
0.26
0.56
0.30
0.23
0.17
0.22
0.21
0.0
-0.04
-0.05
0.34
0.29
0.37
0.28
0.29
0.33
0.11
0.32
0.48
-0.11
0.09
0.43
0.28
0.37
0.23
0.36
0.22
0.16
0.19
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
-0.10
0.97
-0.09
0.41
0.70
0.74
0.39
0.72
0.83
0.47
0.49
1.19
0.05
-0.38
0.69
0.65
0.45
0.46
0.72
0.49
1.03
0.74
0.82
0.29
-0.10
0.23
0.78
0.53
0.38
0.57
0.52
0.90
0.59
0.76
0.33
0.29
0.55
0.69
0,61
0.34
0.50
0.91
0.43
0.53
0.65
0.33
-0.10
0.59
0,21
0.56
0.68
0.35
0.42
1.25
0.81
0.90
0.24
0.24
0.40
0.42
0.56
0.60
0.81
0.32
1.09
0.69
0.40
0.43
0.71
0.40
0.25
0.52
0.68
0.66
0.19
1.01
0.63
0.64
-0.24
0.66
0.40
0.13
0.44
0.67
0.66
0.38
0.86
0.90
0.29
-0.05
0.56
0.40
0.34
0.47
0,78
0.89
0.57
0.73
0.87
0.34
-0.19
0.42
0.44
0.67
0.67
0.55
0.99
0.09
0.79
0.89
0.54
0.09
0.42
0.53
0.67
0.90
0.69
0.78
0.25
0.52
1.04
0.19
-0,14
0.28
0.13
0.58
-0.04
0.58
0.80
0.44
0.49
0.95
0.64
0.44
-0.19
0.44
0.71
0.57
0.41
0.67
0.61
0.80
0.61
0.77
0.30
0.14
0.51
0.44
0.58
0.54
0.55
0.55
0.92
0.68
0.44
0.05
0.64
0.40
0.24
0.43
0.71
0.74
0.38
0.87
0.80
0.36
-0.08
0.37
0.37
0.64
0.51
0.61
0.86
0.26
0.60
0.96
0.55
0.18
0.24
0.43
0.51
0,53
0.57
0.70
0.45
0.80
0.76
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
0.39
0.18
1.11
1.10
0.95
0.80
0.42
1.01
0.47
-0.25
1.54
1.07
0.51
0.87
0.70
1.27
0.36
0.64
1.43
1.02
0.47
0.71
0.81
0.68
0.34
0.84
1.00
0.68
0.54
0.51
0.38
0.94
0.21
0.53
1.14
0.71
1.04
0.41
1.20
0.78
0.38
0.50
0.78
0.71
0.72
0.68
1.36
0.42
-0.23
0.90
0.59
0,99
0.49
0.49
0.59
0.74
-0.18
1.16
0.50
1.02
0.65
0.47
0.53
0.84
0.15
0.97
0.52
0.89
0.43
0.35
0.45
0.92
0.15
0.70
0.63
0.84
0.79
0.73
0.41
1.28
0.26
0.65
0,73
0.63
0.96
0.61
1.01
0.91
0.08
0.88
0.85
1.08
0.88
0.29
0.32
1.04
0.41
0.19
1.36
1.06
0.64
0.79
0.64
0.99
0.31
0.62
0.97
0.70
0.77
0.53
0.98
0.71
-0.09
1.01
0.54
0.97
0.52
- 0.44
0.52
0.83
0.16
0.74
0.74
0.87
0.88
0.54
0.58
1.08
0.20
0.64
0.90
0.90
0,70
0.58
0.68
0.90
1947...
1948,..
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
104. PERCENT CHANGE IH TOTAL LIQUID ASSETS, MONTHLY DATA
(PERCENT)
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
1948...
1949...
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
-0.13
0.17
0.08
0.95
0.48
0.25
0.51
0.38
0.46
0.04
0.13
0.39
0.0
0,51
0.63
0.28
0.51
0.51
0.55
-0.13
0.18
0.34
0.21
0.47
0.88
"0.21
0.03
0.16
0.61
0.0
0.22
0.55
0.25
0.19
0.77
0.0
0.57
0.0
0.27
-0.13
0.31
0.38
0.33
0.31
0.58
0.49
0.87
0.22
0.30
0.09
0.17
0.34
0.49
0.62
0.47
0.07
0,59
0.19
0.24
0.13
0.17
0.29
0.53
0.50
0.68
0.35
0.72
0.06
0.48
0.18
0.13
0.08
0.37
0.57
0.43
0.41
0.46
0.22
0.30
0.13
0,09
0.04
0.65
0.61
0.11
0.41
0.75
0.53
0.15
0.04
0.17
0.29
0.61
0.57
0.18
0.51
0.58
0.28
0.03
0.04
0.17
0.21
0.68
0.56
O.'l4
0.41
0,42
0.37
0.12
0.09
0.30
0.42
0.68
0.52
0.25
0.31
0.41
0.40
0.30
0.06
0.30
0.10
0.64
0.66
0.25
0.35
0.35
0.54
-0.01
0.23
0.42
0.36
0.37
0.61
0,19
0.68
0.14
0.27
0,15
0.13
0.14
0.52
0.56
0.41
0.39
0.64
0.27
0.31
0.06
0.21
0.31
0.66
0.55
0.19
0.41
0,47
0.35
0.15
0.16
0.29
0.41
0.53
0.47
0.31
0,54
0.28
0.32
1958...
1959...
1960. ..
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964...
1965...
1966...
1967...
1968...
0.12
0.85
0.43
0.21
0.71
0.81
0.65
0.68
0.68
0,37
0.53
0.38
0.31
0.32
0.59
0.56
0.61
0.56
0.60
0.50
0.73
0.72
0.26
0.61
0.29
0.33
0.72
0.65
0.62
0.54
0,39
0.62
0.71
0.21
0.75
0.29
0.54
0.69
0.82
0.53
0.65
0.72
0.50
0.55
0.29
0.63
-0.03
0.69
0.40
0.77
0.69
0.76
0.47
0.92
0.78
0.35
0.52
0.11
0.53
0.69
0.70
0.65
0.85
0.30
0.86
0.73
0.15
0.87
0.40
0.53
0.77
0.63
0.50
0.69
0.17
0.80
0.84
0.64
0.27
0.42
0.35
0.75
0.80
0.52
0.70
0.26
0.81
0.87
0.46
0.11
0.50
0.35
0.39
0.62
0.88
0.74
0,50
0.79
0.65
0.58
0.16
0.31
0.72
0.37
0.49
0.67
0.80
0.24
0.72
0.79
0.77
0.08
0.29
0.67
0.71
0.80
0.61
0.69
0.31
0.60
0.33
0.51
0.08
0.21
0.49
0.64
0.44
0.41
0.58
0.29
0.65
0.80
0.25
0.59
0.35
0.38
0.66
0.69
0.61
0.61
0.52
0.57
0.65
0.28
0.63
0.12
0.59
0.59
0.76
0.62
0.75
0.50
0.76
0.69
0.42
0.42
0.44
0.41
0.64
0.63
0.63
0.71
0.31
0.80
0.79
0.62
0.11
0.27
0.63
0.57
0.58
0.56
Q.69
0.28
0.66
0.81
0.39
0.44
0.30
0.50
0.62
0.68
0.61
0.69
0.40
0.70
0.73
1969...
1970...
1971..,
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
0.44
0.30
0.84
1.14
1.03
0.98
0.65
0.88
0.61
0.18
0.93
1.17
0.94
0.92
0.66
0.88
0.51
0.52
0.91
1.01
0.99
0.80
0.65
0.67
0.52
0.55
0.86
0.94
0.89
1.06
0.55
0.85
0.22
0.29
1.10
1.07
1.20
0.72
1.02
0.89
0.07
0.18
0.99
0.89
0.91
0.63
1.17
0.70
-0.07
0.84
0.97
1.00
0.77
0.55
0.78
0.92
0.20
0.77
0.83
1.03
1.10
0.53
0.80
0.73
0.41
0.59
0.64
0.95
0.72
0 .44
0.82
0.84
0.24
0.80
0.72
1.10
0.53
0.64
0.85
1.04
0.26
0.70
0.67
1.18
0.88
0.28
1.37
0.73
0.24
0.64
0.80
1.27
0.99
0.29
0.75
0.74
0.52
0.33
0.89
1.11
0.99
0.90
0.65
0.81
0.27
0.34
0.98
0.97
1.00
0.80
0.91
0.81
0.18
0.73
0.81
0.99
0.86
0.51
0,80
0,83
0.25
0.71
0.73
1.18
0.80
0.40
0.99
0.84
0.30
0.53
0.86
1.06
0.91
0.65
0.84
0.82
104. PERCENT CHANGS IN TOTAL LIQUID ASSETS, SMOOTHED DATA1
(PERCENT)
1947. . .
1948 . .
1949,..
1950...
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957. ..
1958...
1959. ..
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964. ..
1965...
1966.,.
1967...
1968...
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976...
1977...
1978...
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
0.03
0.21
0.27
0.71
0.53
0.20
0.41
0.44
0.38
0.01
0.25
0.20
0.74
0.53
0.24
0.43
0.42
0.44
0.04
0,29
0.13
0.68
0.60
0.25
0.40
0.39
0.50
0.12
0.36
0.12
0.52
0.71
0.20
0.36
0.29
0.51
-0 .06
0.21
0.42
0.21
0.36
0.75
0.20
0.43
0.17
0.43
-0.05
0.23
0.42
0.31
0.35
0.67
0.21
0.58
0.13
0.33
0.01
0.22
0.38
0.40
0.42
0.59
0.24
0.70
0.15
0.30
0 .08
0.19
0.29
0.46
0.52
0.55
0.29
0.66
0.16
0.34
0 .14
0.14
0.19
0.49
0.56
0.47
0.33
0.62
0.21
0.32
0.13
0.13
0.14
0.53
0.57
0.32
0.42
0.62
0.31
0.23
0.09
0.14
0.16
0.59
0.58
0.19
0.44
0.59
0.37
0.13
0.06
0.18
0.24
0.65
0.56
0.17
0.43
0.53
0.37
0.12
0.16
0.66
0.15
0.25
0.62
0.65
0.60
0.56
0.67
0.30
0.62
0.22
0.63
0.24
0.29
0.60
0.70
0.59
0.56
0.62
0.39
0.61
0.26
0.57
0.31
0.36
0.62
0.69
0.58
0.58
0.55
0.52
0.64
0.27
0.57
0.32
0.43
0.66
0.69
0.59
0.60
0.53
0.59
0.66
0.27
0.61
0.24
0.50
0.63
0.72
0.59
0.62
0.53
0.65
0.67
0.27
0.65
0.15
0.55
0.60
0.75
0.62
0.70
0.51
0.72
0.68
0.27
0.65
0.14
0.58
0.61
0.73
0,62
0.76
0.40
0.81
0.73
0.32
0.61
0.23
0.53
0.68
0.70
0.58
0.76
0.28
0.84
0.80
0.40
0.43
0.37
0.44
0.69
0 .70
0.59
0.73
0.28
0.81
0.80
0.49
0.30
0.42
0.44
0.57
0.66
0.66
0.73
0.32
0.79
0.78
0.58
0.15
0.39
0.53
0.5C
0..64
0.70
0.74
0.34
0.74
0.76
0.75
0.26
0,72
0.80
1.17
0.87
0.40
0.99
0.65
0.25
0.76
0.95
1.12
0.96
0.47
0.92
0.57
0.29
0.85
1.07
1.03
0.93
0.59
0.82
0.53
0.37
0.90
1.07
0.96
0.91
0.64
0.80
0.48
0.43
0.93
1.02
0.98
0.89
0.68
0.80
0.34
0.40
0.97
0.99
1.01
0.83
0.83
0.81
0.17
0.39
1.00
0.98
0.98
0.72
0.95
0,82
0.07
0.52
0.97
0.98
0.94
0.60
0.95
0.81
0.12
0.66
0.87
0.98
0.89
0.54
0.86
0.81
0.23
0.73
0.77
1.01
0.82
0.52
0.81
0.85
0.29
0.71
0.70
1.05
0.75
0.49
0.92
0.87
•
o!6r
0.25
0.20
0.71
0.55
0.23
0.41
0.42
0.44
0.19
0.40
0.21
0.41
0.71
0.20
0.46
0.20
0.42
0.08
0.18
0.29
0.45
0.50
0.54
0.29
0.66
0.17
0.32
0.09
0.15
0.18
0.59
0.57
0.23
0.43
0.58
0.35
0.16
0.14
0.28
0.36
0.55
0.51
0.29
0.53
0.28
0.34
0.61
0.11
0.32
0,60
0.53
0.61
0.64
0.72
0.31
0.68
0.78
0.21
0.62
0.23
0.30
0.61
0.68
0.59
0.57
0.61
0.40
0.62
0.27
0.61
0.24
0.49
0.63
0.72
0.60
0.64
0,52
0.65
0.67
0.33
0.58
0.25
0.52
0.66
0.71
0.60
0.75
0.32
0.82
0.78
0.56
0.19
0.38
0.52
0.53
0.64
0.67
0.73
0.32
0.74
0.77
0.34
0.50
0.27
0.46
0.61
0.69
0.61
0.67
0.44
0.65
0.71
0.27
0.70
0,70
1.13
0.75
0.43
1.00
0.85
0.66
0.27
0.78
0.94
1.11
0.92
0.49
0.91
0.45
0.40
0.93
1.03
0.98
0.88
0.72
0.80
0.12
O.S2
0.95
0.98
0.94
0.62
0.92
0.81
0.26
0.71
0.72
1.06
0.77
0.48
0.91
0.86
0.37
0.48
0.84
1.00
0.95
0.72
0.76
0.85
NOTE: These series contain revisions beginning with 1965.'This series is a weighted 4-term moving average {with weights 1,2,2,1} placed
at the terminal month of the span.
(JUNE 1978)
101
C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly
Monthly
Year
Annual
Jan.
Feb.
548.
Mar.
Apr.
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
Id
Q
II
V A L U K OP MANUFACTURERS ' NEW O R D E R S , DEF ENSE PRODUCTS
( B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS)
IIIQ
IV Q
POT At, FOR P K H X O D
1947. ..
1948...
1949, . .
1951 , . .
1932. , ,
1954...
1955, ..
1956. . .
1957. . .
...
1958...
1959
1960
1961...
1962. . .
1963...
p
1 9 6 5 ...
1966 , , ,
1967. ..
1968...
2.17
1.50
2.02
2,00
1,76
2.4X
1.56
1.63
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975. ..
1976...
1977...
1978...
962.
2.00
1.72
2.13
2.69
2.87
1.77
2.75
3.03
2.47
X.93
2 . 03
1.76
1.83
1.89
1.57
1.51
2,42
2.54
2.13
2.40
1.83
1.33
1.35
2.00
1.35
2.01
2.83
2.57
1.60
1.49
1.69
2.06
1.88
2.40
2.75
2.11
1.90
1.40
1.46
1.81
2.53
2.22
2.12
1.62
1.85
1.14
2.10
2.12
2.02
X.88
2.36
1.66
2.10
1.90
1.16
1.58
1.50
2.40
2.22
1.76
1.69
1.66
1.31
2.03
3.90
2.10
1.92
1.51
2.06
1.49
1.79
1.76
2.35
2.58
2.14
2.07
1.90
1.70
1.33
1.85
1.43
1.31
2.67
2.13
1.62
1.73
1.55
2.44
2.47
2.07
2.95
2.47
X.76
,1.44
1.70
2.09
1.80
3.99
**
7 69
6,33
S.2X
5.24
4.92
5.27
6.18
6.11
6.59
D I F F U S I O N ItJDKX OF I N I T I A L CLAIMS FOR U N E M P L O Y M E N T I N S U R A N C E , S TATE ^HOGRAf-1S--51 AREAS'
( P K H C B N T DEC LI 61 IMG OVER 1 -MONTH S P A N S )
6
5
4
5
S
6
6
7
30
35
03
25
99
43
50
23
7.55
6 . 4J
4.93
5.85
5.05
4.26
5.17
7.75
7. OB
6.28
6.67
5. 21!
4.87
(
J!BB
5.1B
9.61
21.6*)
XB..19
19.18
2 ( j ] 35
24.07
29.71
A V U U A G R POK PKKIOQ
1947 . . .
1948. ,
1950. . ,
1951...
1952...
1953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
33,3
21.6
68.6
60.8
84.3
35.3
7.8
Sl.O
79.4
37.3
19.6
74.5
29.4
86,3
85.3
41.2
47.1
3.1.4
49.0
60.8
S3. 7
25.5
26.5
63.7
62.7
76.5
39.2
15.7
45.1
58.8
39.2
52.9
47.1
29.4
35.3
66.7
49.0
28.4
35.3
51.0
66.7
83.3
31.4
41.2
47.1
82.4
80.4
27. S
23.5
74.5
27,5
92.2
23.5
17.6
29.4
56.9
58.8
58. 8
68.6
62.7
19.6
41.2
72.5
58.8
15.7
41.2
39.2
54.9
27.5
90.2
52.9
35.3
26.5
45.1
60.8
54.9
15.7
70.6
3X.4
49.0
52.9
72.5
(18.0
11.8
<13.X
74.5
62.7
70.6
<!?.S
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963...
1964,,.
1965...
1966.,,
1967...
X968...
37.3
88.2
61.8
76.5
23.5
11.8
74.5
96.1
47.1
47.1
18,6
21.6
63.7
21.6
9.8
84.3
90.2
70.6
19.6
45.1
22.5
78.4
27.5
62,7
9.8
70.6
39.2
72.5
25.5
39.2
86.3
40.2
76.5
36.3
57.8
86.3
77. S
47.X
17.6
47.1
64.7
74.5
39.2
33,3
70.6
85.3
27.5
29.4
25.5
51.0
82.4
78.4
27.5
41.2
58.8
45.X
X7.6
25.5
74.5
68.6
76.5
17,6
11.8
58.8
78.4
80.4
76.5
21.6
60.8
74.5
39.2
21.6
74.5
81.4
38.2
33.3
17.6
76. S
52.9
3.9
35.3
41.2
74.5
74.5
45.1
29.4
66.7
57.8
39.2
29.4
72.5
70.6
76.5
23.5
21.6
64.7
80.4
71.6
56.9
86.3
31.4
47.1
76.5
24.5
47.1
74.5
80.4
35.3
45.1
49.0
82.4
37.3
25.5
37.3
79.4
82.4
37.3
34.3
29.4
62,7
58.8
19.6
78.4
1969...
1970...
1971...
1972...
1973...
1974...
1975...
1976,,.
1977...
1978...
54.9
17.6
84.3
78,4
37.3
3,9
51.0
94.1
49.0
48.0
29.4
19.6
7i.4
74.5
3S.3
41.2
76.5
25.5
11.8
68.6
31.4
80.4
72,5
10.8
33.3
19.6
98.0
82.4
35.3
23.5
30,4
52.9
82.4
72.5
76.5
5.9
28.4
33.3
68.6
56.9
25.5
27.5
5.9
54.9
72.5
80.4
73.5
0.0
35.3
66.7
68.6
59.8
19.6
11.8
62.7
65. 7
63.7
62.7
31.4
52.0
33.3
43.1
82.4
29.4
27.5
13.7
62.7
74.5
92.2
15.7
13.7
38.2
48.0
58.8
88.2
43.1
15.7
3.9
76.5
90.2
56.9
58.8
19.6
49.0
51.0
29.4
94.1
29.4
962.
56.5
47.4
51.0
37.3
69.3
41.8
52.6
4 S.I!
44.8
43.8
50,3
58.2
45.1
44.3
42.(i
65.4
30.1
47.1
6».8
47.7
32.7
78^4
49.0
51.6
35.6
48 M
49.5
3B.4
53.3
5l),3
46,6
41,4
66.7
13.7
51.0
64.7
39.2
64.7
39.2
20.8
71.5
31.1
52.3
49.0
58.2
56.9
51.6
59.5
36.6
57.8
50.7
53.6
46.4
66.5
47.1
48.4
49.0
51,6
53.6
52.9
57.5
64.X
34.6
45.7
60.1
52.3
J9.9
56.9
63.7
49.3
57.2
44.1
62.8
49.0
4 3. 8
69. 1
56.9
47.7
54.3
59.8
14.6
57,5
49.0
5X . 6
W.?,
41.H
611.6
5X.3
4 8 ,5
54.3
56.7
49.3
51, X
5 2 ,1
17.6
56.9
76.5
82.4
47.1
5.9
21.6
30. 2
60.1
30.4
41.8
55.5
49.0
52.9
52.9
48.7
47.1
39.9
60.1
47.7
45.4
45.7
57.5
36.6
42.2
47.7
54.2
62.X
48.4
23.5
52.9
44.8
40.8
58.2
61,4
58.2
37 . 9
H.I
64.1
69.9
47.6
44.0
54.4
55.9
4li.2
3 1 . tl
56,9
50,0
aVi
D 1 F F U 3 ION I N D E X OF I N I T I A L CLAIMS FOR U N E M P L O Y M E N T I N S U R A N C E , STATE P R O G R A M S - -51 A R E A S '
( P U K G E N T D E C L I N I N G OVER 9-M03Til SPANS)
1947. . .
1948. . .
1949. . ,
1950. . .
195X...
1952. . .
X953...
1954...
1955...
1956...
1957...
52.9
60,8
37.3
3,9
98.0
41.2
23.5
54.9
41.2
35.3
35.3
33.3
41.2
25.5
20.6
9.8
96,1
31.4
31.4
24,5
23.5
94.1
25.5
31.4
5.9
17. 6
80.4
39.2
43.1
11.8
21.6
94.1
43.1
13.7
5.9
33.3
86.3
31.4
9.8
2.0
76.5
60.8
41.2
0.0
1958...
1959...
1960...
1961...
1962...
1963,..
1964...
1965...
1966. ..
1967...
1968...
3,9
96.1
19.6
47.1
80.4
54.9
76.5
78.4
88.2
11.8
76.5
7.8
94.1
X5.7
52.9
82.4
64.7
74.5
78.4
90.2
15.7
S6.3
16.7
76.5
31.4
70.6
54.9
72.5
88.2
88.2
72.5
25.5
74.5
33.3
58.8
17.6
68.6
60.8
67.6
80.4
86.3
70.6
35.3
68.6
39.2
76.5
5.9
84.3
47.1
51.0
84.3
84.3
80.4
45.1
68.6
74.5
37.3
3.9
78.4
35.3
82.4
86.3
82.4
70.6
43.1
94.1
1969...
1970...
1971.. .
1972...
X973...
1974. ..
1975...
1976,..
1977...
1978...
64.7
2.0
52.9
78.4
66,7
10.8
2.0
76.5
43,1
2.0
60.8
72.5
60.8
21.6
2.0
69.6
31.4
0.0
70.6
62.7
51.0
9,8
21.6
70.6
43.1
3.9
4S.1
37.3
0.0
47.1
02. 4
35.3
7.8
SB. 8
29.4
37.3
2.0
52.9
53.8
33.3
13.7
75.5
17.6
37^3
2X.6
51.0
22. S
AtfSJRAGtf FOR P K K I O R
2.0
88.2
70.6
43.1
3.9
21.6
82. 4
3.9
94.1
56.9
9.8
5.9
35.3
60.8
7.8
98.0
39.2
47.1
3.9
25,5
58.6
9.8
94.1
60.8
56.9
0.0
60.8
2X.6
70.6
2.0
92.2
37.3
41.2
0.0
49.?
4 S.I
27.5
12.4
96.1
32.7
28. 8
34.6
76.5
7.9
24.2
86.9
37.9
22.2
29.4
68.7
2.6
86.3
62.8
31,4
3.3
27.5
63.4
6.5
94.8
45.8
48,4
.1 . J
35.3
63.4
U.I
54 .4
72.9
37,6
H.9
96.1
15.7
5.9
86.3
25.5
80.4
61.8
90.2
62,7
82.4
79.4
90.2
27.5
23.5
94.1
45.1
17.6
64.7
90.2
29.4
80.4
53.9
98.0
31.4
9.8
88.2
17.6
72.5
100.0
88.2
5.9
62.7
60.8
98.0
3.9
3.9
96.1
60.8
88.2
64.7
62.7
12.7
86.3
54.9
100.0
7.8
5.9
90.2
70.6
54.9
72.5
96.1
5.9
88.2
41.2
98.0
35.3
15.7
82.4
46.X
74.5
66.7
92.2
7.8
74.5
62.7
9.5
88.9
22.2
56.9
72.6
64.0
79,7
81.7
83.6
17.7
79.1
49.0
57.5
9.1
77.1
47.7
67.0
83.7
84.3
73,9
41.2
77.1
94.8
24.9
1.3.1
89.5
29.4
IJ6.8
75.5
§y. 5
32.7
75.2
64.7
98.7
X5.7
8.5
89.6
59.2
7 2 .; j
68.0
83-7
8.8
83.0
52.9
61.0
46.7
H.2
78.3
6 5 .* X
7 6 ,7
84.8
49.7
54.2
6B.5
35.3
5.9
41.2
78.4
7.8
9.8
92.2
X7.6
12.7
13.7
84.3
76.5
2X.6
2.0
82.4
&2.7
3.9
70.6
70.6
45.1
2.0
0.0
98.0
56.9
2.0
51.0
41.2
96.1
15.7
3.9
92.2
37.3
2.0
25.5
34.3
88.2
15.7
0.0
88.2
88.2
2.0
49.0
90.2
78.4
46.4
1.3
61.4
71.2
59.5
14.1
8.5
72.2
39.2
2.0
48,4
75.2
35.3
14,4
61.8
n.2
17.3
30.1
65,4
66.7
10.5
3.9
90.9
45.7
2.0
4X.8
71.9
87.6
13.3
1.3
89,5
71.2
26.2
18.8
6X.8
75.2
30.9
8.4
6?. 7
53.X
o!o
88.2
88.2
NOTE: Theso series contain revisions beginning with the first year shown. 'This index replaces the index based on 47 labor market
areas. (See April 1970 BCD,, page iv.)
102
49.3
40.5
(OUNl- 1970)
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1975
Duration in months
Contraction
(trough from
previous
peak}
Business cycle reference dates
Trough
December 1854
December 1858
June 1861
.
December 1867
December 1870
March 1879
Cycle
Expansion
{trough to
peak}
Peak from
previous
peak
Trough from
previous
trough
Peak
. .
...
May 1885
April 1888
May 1891
June 1894
June 1897
December 1900
June 1857 .
. . October 1860
April 1865. .
June 1869
October 1873
March 1882
March 1887
July 1890
January 1893 .
December 1895
June 1899 . . .
September 1902
(x)
18
8
32
18
65
30
22
46
18
34
36
(X)
48
30
78
36
99
*0
5
52
101
38
13
10
17
18
18
22
27
20
18
24
21
74
35
37
37
36
42
60
40
30
35
42
39
23
13
24
23
7
18
33
19
12
44
10
22
44
46
43
35
51
28
56
32
36
67
17
40
27
21
50
80
37
36
40
64
63
88
48
41
34
93
93
45
j>6
39
24
106
36
5S
47
34
117
52
49
32
19
15
11
33
41
48
52
56
59
20
16
11
26
30
34
46
46
45
August 1904
June 1908
January 1912
December 1914
March 1919
July 1921
May 1907
January 1910 .
January 1913
August 1918
. . January 1920
May 1923 . . .
July 1924
November 1927
March 1933
June 1938
October 1945
October 1949
October 1926
August 1929
May 1937 .
February 1945
. . November 1948
July 1953 . . .
14
13
43
13
8
11
May 1954
April 1958
February 1961
November 1970
March- 1975
August 1957
April 1960
December 1969
. . November 1973
10
8
10
...
ri
AS
16
Average, all cycles:
28 cycles 1854-1975
12 cycles, 1919-1975 . .
6 cycles, 1945-1975
3
Average, peacetime cycles:
23 cycles, 1854-1975
9 cycles 1919-1975
4 cycles, 1945-1975 . . .
(x)
40
.116
47
'52
2
59
58
4
5
46
48
43
NOTE: Underscored figures are the wartime expansions (Civil War, World Wars I and I , Korean War, and Vietnam War}, the postwar contractions,
and the full cycles that include the wartime expansions.
'27 cycles.
11 cycles.
2
3
4
7 cycles.
22 cycles.
5
8 cycles.
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
103
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Net Contributions of Individual Components to the Leading, Roughly Coincident, and Lagging Composite Indexes
Basic data
Series title
(and unit of measure)
LEADING INDICATORS
1. Average workweek, production workers,
manufacturing (hours)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing 1
(per 100 employees)
.
8. New orders for consumer goods and materials
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
•
32. Vendor performance, companies reporting
slower deliveries (percent)
12. Net business formation
(index: 1967^100}
20, Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
29. New building permits, private housing
units (index: 1967=100)
36. Change in inventories on hand and on order in
1972 dol. 9 smoothed2 (ann. rate, bil. dol.) .
92. Change in sensitive prices, smoothed 2
(percent)
19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks
(index: 1941-43=10)
104. Change in total liquid assets, smoothed 2
(percent)
105. Money supply (Ml) in 1972 dollars
(billion dollars)
910. Composite index of 12 leading indicators 3
(index: 1967=100)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS
41. Employees on nonagri cultural payrolls
(thousands)
51. Personal income less transfers in 1972
dollars (annual rate, billion dollars). . . .
47. Industrial production, total
(index: 1967=100)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972
dollars (million dollars)
920. Composite index of 4 roughly coincident
indicators 3 (index: 1967=100)
LAGGING INDICATORS
91. Average duration of unemployment1
(weeks)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total,
in 1972 dollars (billion dollars)
62. Labor cost per unit of output, manufacturing
(index: 1967=100)
-. .
109. Average prime rate charged by banks
(percent)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
(mi 1 1 ion dol 1 3 rs )
95. Ratio, consumer installment debt to
personal income (percent)
930. Composite index of 6 lagging indicators 3
(index: 1967=100)
Feb.
1978
Mar,
1978
Net contribution to index
Feb.
to
Mar.
1978
May
1978
Apr.
1978
Mar.
to
Apr.
1978
Apr.
to
May
1978
r40.6
r40.7
p40.3
0.53
0.07
-0.36
0.9
0.9
0.9
pl.O
0.0
0.0
-0.11
36.98
37.53
r38,59
p37.47
0.07
0.13
-0.16
64
67
64
64
0.10
135.0
r!31.8
e!32.6
NA
-0.33
0.08
NA
r!4,45
13.29
r!2,22
p!3.S3
-0.21
-0.22
0.31
132.2
141.9
149.9
137.6
0.22
0.17
-0.32
r!4.59
r!8.93
P23.95
NA
0.24
0.28
39.9
-0.10
0.0
NA
1.63
1.15
0.92
0.92
-0.21
-0.10
0.0
88.98
88.82
92.71
97.41
-0.01
0.25
0.35
rO.93
rO.87
rO.87
pO.91
-0.18
0.0
0.14
r225.7
r224.6
r226.2
p225.4
-0.23
0.33
-0.20
r!34.5
r!34.7
r!36.1
p!35.9
0.15
1.04
-0.15
84,046
r84,555
r85,170
p8S,34S
0.49
0.59
0.22
973.3
r981.5
988.8
69S9.9
0.38
0.34
0.07
139.2
r!40.9
r!42.9
p!43.7
0.33
0.38
0.20
144,721
r!46,936
p!49,523
NA
0.34
0.39
134.0
r!35.9
r!38.0
p!38.4
1.42
1.55
0.29
12.5
12.3
12.3
0.09
0.0
0.14
238.22
r240.37
p241.70
NA
0.40
0.25
NA
r!65.0
r!66.4
r!65.6
plSS. 6
0.26
-0.15
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.89
0.67
8.00
8.00
8,00
12.1
8.27
128,689
r!30,333
r!32,181
134,983
0.28
0.3.1
13.20
13.27
P13.32
NA
0.22
0.16
137.3
r!38.8
r!39.4
p!41.5
1.09
0.43
NA
NA
1.51
NOTE: The net contribution of an individual- component is that component's share in the composite movement of the group. It
is computed by dividing the standardized and weighted change for the component by the sum of the weights for the available components and dividing that result by the index standardization factor. See the 1977 HANDBOOK OF CYCLICAL INDICATORS (pp. 74-75)
for weights and standardization factors. NA, not available, p, preliminary, r, revised, e, estimated.
series is inverted in computing the composite index; i.e., a decrease in this series is considered an upward movement.
series is a weighted 4- term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.
Figures in the net contribution columns are percent changes in the index. The percent change is equal (except for rounding
differences) to the sum of the individual components' contributions plus the trend adjustment factor. The trend adjustment
factor for the leading index is 0.170; for the coincident index, -0.158; for the lagging index, -0.153.
2
This
3
104
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
HOW TO READ CYCLICAL COMPARISON CHARTS
These charts show graphically, for selected indicators,
the path of the current business recovery. To set the current
cyclical movements into historical perspective, cyclical
paths over generally similar historical periods are also
shown. The selected periods are superimposed so as to compare the current business recovery with corresponding
historical patterns and to facilitate critical assessment of the
amplitude, duration, and severity of the indicators' current
movements.
1. Two cyclical comparison charts are shown for each
indicator. The left panel shows a comparison based on
reference peak levels and reference trough dates; in the
right panel, a chart is aligned according to both the levels
and the dates of the specific troughs in each indicator. (See
charts on the following pages.)
The three-part timing code indicates the
timing classification of the series at
peaks, at troughs, and at all turns: L =
leading; C = roughly coincident; Lg =
lagging; and U - unclassified.
This number indicates latest calendar
month of data plotted (1 - January).
I I I | I I I I I [ I I I I I I\ I I I I|
Series number, series title
2. The vertical line represents trough dates: reference
trough dates in the left panel and specific trough dates in
the right panel. The current recovery and the corresponding
historical periods are positioned so that their reference
trough dates (left panel) and specific trough dates (right
panel) are on this vertical line.
3. The horizontal line represents the level of data at reference cycle peaks (left panel) and at specific cycle troughs
(right panel). The current recovery and the corresponding
historical periods are positioned so that their reference
peaks (left panel) and specific troughs (right panel) are on
this horizontal line.
4. For most series, deviations (percent or actual differences) from the reference peak and specific trough levels
are computed and plotted. For series measured in percent
units (e.g., the unemployment rate), these units (actual data)
are plotted rather than deviations. The numerical values of
these deviations for the current cycle are shown in the
tables accompanying the charts.
5. For series that move counter to movements in general
business activity (e.g., the unemployment rate), an inverted
scale is used; i.e., declines in data are shown as upward
movements in the plotted lines, and increases in data, as
downward movements in plotted lines.
6. In each chart, several curves are shown. The heavy
solid line (—•) describes the current recovery. The dotted
line (•••) represents the median pattern of the five postWorld War II recoveries. The remaining lines represent
selected business recoveries. In the left panel, each line
is labeled according to the year of the reference trough.
In the right panel, the label for each line indicates the
month and year of the specific trough.
7. The business cycle (reference) peaks and troughs used
in these charts are those designated by the National Bureau
of Economic Research as follows:
peaks, Nov. 1948
(IVQ 1948), July 1953 (IIQ 1953), Aug. 1957 (IIIQ 1957),
Apr. 1960 (IIQ 1960), Dec. 1969 (IVQ 1969), Nov. 1973
(IVQ 1973); troughs, Oct. 1949 (IVQ 1949), May 1954
(IIQ 1954), Apr. 1958 (IIQ 1958), Feb. 1961 (IQ 1961),
Nov. 1970 (IVQ 1970), Mar. 1975 (IQ 1975).
This scale measures time in months before
(-) and after (+) reference trough dates
(left panel) and specific trough dates
(right panel).
I . . . . . 1 . i ...
0
. . . . . I ..... I
+6
+12
Months from troughs
This scale shows deviations (percent or
actual differences) from reference peak
levels (left panel) and specific trough
levels (right panel).
This scale shows actual series units and
applies only to the current business cycle
(heavy solid line).
105
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
3, Layoff rate, manufacturing
(inverted)
IJJ]
MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH
B
26
27
28
CURRENT MONTH
AND
ACTUAL
DATA YEAR
SERIES
3
PER 100
EMPLOYEES
1.1
1.2
1.3
5/77
6/77
7/77
29
30
31
32
1.3
1.3
1.1
0.9
8/77
9/77
10/77
11/77
33
34
35
36
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
12/77
1/78
2/78
3/78
37
38
0.9
1.0
4/78
5/78
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing
(inverted)
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH • 2/75
DATA YEAR
SERIES
3
PER 100
C;4PL07fJC^3
27
-1.8
1.1
5/77
28
-1.7
1.2
6/77
29
30
31
32
-1.6
-1.6
-1.6
-1.8
1.3
1.3
1.1
7/77
8/77
9/77
10/?7
33
34
35
36
-2.0
-1.9
-2.0
-2.0
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.9
11/77
12/77
1/78
2/78
37
38
39
-2.0
-2.0
-1.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
3/78
4/78
5/78
MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH
4. Quit rate, manufacturing
26
27
28
- 2.0
- 1.5
-J
-12 -6
0 +8 +12 +18 +24 +30 +36
Months from reference troughs
106
1*0
1.3
CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
DATA YEAR
SERIES
4
PER 100
EMPLOYEES
1.9
5/77
1.8
6/77
1.8
7/77
29
30
31
32
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9
8/77
9/77
10/7?
11/77
33
34
35
36
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.1
12/77
1/78
2/78
3/78
37
38
2.3
2.1
4/78
5/78
4. Quit rate, manufacturing
MONTHS DE VIFROM ATI OMS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
F ROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
4 /75
DATA YEAR
SERIES
4
PER 100
25
26
27
28
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
1.9
5/77
1. 8
6/7 /
1.8
7/77
1.8
8/77
29
30
31
32
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.9
1.8
9/7?
1.8 10/77
1.9 11/77
2.1 12/7?
33
34
35
36
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.9
2.0
2.1
2.3
1/78
2/78
3/78
4/78
37
0.9
2.1
5/78
• 1,0
mlnmlijni uuilummi|'l"iuliimliiiiilin
-12-6
0 +6 +12+18+24+30+36
Months from specific troughs
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
1111111111111111IIIIIIII III MINI I MM IM Ml II I!
MONTHS DEVIPROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
AND
FROM ACTUAL
TROUGH 11/73
DATA YEAR
12. Net business formation
12. Net business formation
SERIES 12
1967=100
25
26
27
28
4.1
4.8
7.0
7.7
122.4
123.2
125.8
126.6
4/77
5/77
6/77
7/77
29
30
31
32
11.1
10.2
12.2
13.5
130.6
129.6
132.0
133.5
8/77
9/77
10/77
11/77
33
34
35
36
14.6
14.9
14.8
12.1
134.8
135.1
135.0
131.8
12/77
1/78
2/78
3/78
37
12.8
132.6
4/78
• 115
• 110
• 105
29, New building permits, private
housing units ^
+30
H30
+25
• 125
+20
+15
4/77
5/77
6/77
29
30
31
32
24.5
28.4
27.4
29.8
126.6
130.6
129.6
132.0
7/77
8/77
9/77
10/77
33
34
35
36
31.3
32.5
32.8
32.7
133.5
134.8
135.1
135.0
11/77
12/77
1/78
2/78
37
38
29.6
30.4
131.8
132.6
3/78
4/78
• 180
+40
• 160
+30
+20
• HO
+10
• 115
+10
+5
• 105
26
27
28
SERIES>
29
J 967=100
18.1
142.7
24.1
149.9
19.7
144.6
29
30
31
32
26.2
20.9
27.1
30.0
33
34
35
36
26.8
8.9
9.4
17.5
152.5
146.1
153,5
157.0
153.2
131.5
132.2
141.9
29. New building permits, private
housing units
-10
-20
-30
• 80
-40
96Q.
+160
+140
8/77
9/77
10/77
11/77
• 140
+ 120
12/77
1/78
2/78
3/78
+100
+60
26
27
28
133.6
145.3
136.7
142.7
149.9
144.6
5/77
6/77
7/77
29
30
31
32
149.6
139.1
151.2
157.0
152.5
146.1
153.5
157.0
8/77
9/77
10/77
11/77
33
34
35
36
150.7
115.2
116.4
132.2
153.2
131.5
132.2
141.9
12/77
1/73
2/78
3/78
37
38
145.3
125.2
149.9
137.6
4/78
5/78
0 +6 +12+18+24+30+36
Months from reference troughs
• 100
+40
• 80
+20
0
-12-6
• 120
+80
SERIES 29
1967=100
• 100
Percent
5/77
6/77
7/77
37
24.1
149.9
4/78
38
13.9
137.6
5/78
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
3/75
DATA YEAR
0
-50
» 120
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
11/73
DATA YEAR
Percent
+50
SERIES 12
1967=100
20.4
122.4
21.1
123.2
23.7
125.8
Actual
data
for
current
cycle
Percent
MONTHS DEVIFROM AT IONS CURRENT MONTH
SPEC.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH
2/75
DATA YEAR
26
27
28
Deviations
from
spec,
trough
-12-6
.60
0 +6 +12+18+24+30+36
Months from specific troughs
107
G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recovery Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
MONTHS
FROM
REF.
TROUGH
77. Ratio, deflated inventories to
sales, mfg, and trade
CURRENT MONTH
ACTUAL
AND
DATA YEAR
SERIES 77
RATIO
-| 1.9
1.8
1.7
77, Ratio, deflated inventories to
sales, mfg, and trade
[lilt
Actual
25
26
27
28
1.64
1.65
1.65
1.66
29
30
31
32
1.66 8/77
1.66
9/77
1.65 10/77
1.65 11/77
33
34
35
36
1.62
1.69
1.65
1.64
12/77
1/78
2/78
3/78
37
1.62
4/78
4/77
5/77
6/77
7/77
2.00
+.20
> 1.90
+.16
10JM3
L;;VIr.wi A T I O ^ J Cds.^ijj r
SPEC.
F.Oil ACTJ^L
i'tUJJ.1
3/n
JAi'A
1.6
;u:tucj
lOLl. i !
• 1.8
Af] J
^1:^.1
77
UAfU
2
J
4
U .u 4
0.04
U. Js
l.ui*
1.5
1954
78, Stocks of materials and
supplies on hand and on
order, mfg,
m
5/77
I.o5
u/?7
I.DU
7/7;
5
6
7
J.J!j
Q . .1 a
0 .04
0
•;
iU
11
12
i/ 7 7
l.Gy
J.U4
l.bu
1.C5
l.fab
11/77
J.J1
I.o2
12/77
U .3 J
0 ,u4
U.U3
1.6'J
1/76
2/75
J/7d
l.G^
l.b<
a/77
10/77
13
O.ul
1.5^
V7b
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
REF.
FROM ACTUAL
AND
TROUGH 11/73
DATA ¥EAR
•130
• 120
• 110
• 1.70
•HO 8
25
26
27
28
SERIES 078
BIL. DGL,
23.5 137.44
24.7 138.81
24.8 138.96
24.1 138.18
29
30
31
32
25.0
26.0
26.5
27.0
139.10
140.21
140.80
141.42
8/77
9/77
10/77
11/77
33
34
35
36
28.4
29.6
31.0
33.1
142.90
144.23
145.83
148.17
12/77
1/7B
2/78
3/78
+.04
78. Stocks of materials and
supplies on hand and on
order, mfg,
+45
4/77
5/77
6/7?
1/11
• xao
+40
+35
+30
• 160
4/78
37
34.7 149.99
MONTHS DEVIFROM ATIONS CURRENT MONTH
AND
FROM ACTUAL
SPEC.
DATA YEAR
TROUGH 12/75
SERIES
Rftrcent
+25
+20
• 150
78
BIL. DOL,
• 90
-12 -6
0 +6 +12 +18+24+30+36
Months from reference troughs
108
16
8.9
137.44
4/77
17
18
19
20
10.0
10.1
9.5
10.2
138.81
138.96
138.18
139.10
5/77
6/77
7/77
8/77
21
22
23
24
11.1
11.6
12.1
13.2
140.21
140.80
141.42
142.90
9/77
10/77
11/77
12/77
25
26
27
28
14.3
15.6
17.4
18.9
144.23
145.83
148.17
149.99
1/78
2/78
3/78
4/78
+15
+10
• 140
+5
• 130
-12-6
0 +6+12+18+24+30+36
Months from specific troughs
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
A
Accession rate manufacturing
Agricultural products, exports
Anticipations and intentions
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl . .
Consumer sentiment index
Employees manufacturing and trade 01
Inventories manufacturing and trade Dl
New orders manufacturing 01
Prices selling manufacturing 01
Prices selling retail trade 01
Prices selling wholesale trade, Dl
Profits net, manufacturing and trade, Dl . . . .
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade, 01
Automobiles
Expenditures personal consumption
....
Imports of automobiles and parts
2
604
17
55
60
90
Gt
970
58
974
975
971
976
978
977
972
973
25
39
23
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
39
66
75
64
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
75
55
616
23
55
64
90
1/78
6/77
8/68
8/77
8/77
8/77
8/77
8/77
8/77
8/77
11/68
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
1 1 /68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
1 1 /68*
10/77
10/69*
8/77
8/77
1/77
8/77
6/77
B
Balance of payments- See International transactions.
Bank loans to businesses, net change
Bank rates-See Interest rates.
Bank reserves
Free reserves
Member bank borrowing from Federal Reserve ...
Bonds-See Interest rates.
Borrowing-See Credit.
Budget-See Government.
Building-See Construction.
Business equipment, industrial production
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Business formation
,
Business incorporations
Business inventories-See Inventories.
Business loans-See Bank loans.
Business saving
72
112
93
94
16,36
33
72
71
4/78
4/78
11/72
11/72
34
34
71
71
6/77
2/78
11/72
29
76
61
970
14
12
13
14,26
25
25
39
34
13 24
24
66
66
66
75
71
64
64
8/77
2/78
8/77
8/77
295
47
81
12/77
8.3
82
84
21
21
21
63
63
63
1/78
1/78
1/78
97
11
965
25
25
38
65
65
74
1/78
1/78
914
35
34
12
30
30
59
69
69
7/77
4/69
11/68
11/68*
12/77
12/76
1/77
C
Canada-See International comparisons.
Capacity utilization
Manufacturing (BEA)
Manufacturing (FRB)
Materials
. ...
Capital appropriations, manufacturing
Backlog
....
Newly approved
Newly approved Dl
Capital investment -See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, corporate, constant dollars
Cashflow corporate current dollars
Civilian labor force-See also Employment.
Employment
Employment as percent of population
Total
Unemployed
Coincident indicators, four
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Ratio to lagging indicators composite index
Commercial and industrial buildings, contracts awarded . .
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, net change .
Compensation
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector percent changes
Compensation of employees . ,
Compensation of employees, percent of national
income
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector ...
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes ...
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy, percent changes
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes .
Wage and benefit decisions first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract . . .
Wages and salaries, mining, manufacturing, and
construction
442
90
441
37
52
19
52
19,52
88
61
88
61,88
12/77
10/77
10/77
3/78
4/78
3/78
3/78
1/72*
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," foil owing this index)
4/72*
4/72*
4/72*
69
65
72
71
50
86
6/76*
345c
280
51
46
86
81
6/76*
11/77
64
31,48
69,82
10/77
10/69*
345
11
40
12
59
11
40
7/77
7/77
7/77
11/75*
59
7/77
7/77
11/75*
12
12
12
12
12
11
40
59
59
59
59
59
59
7/77
7/77
7/77
7/77
7/77
7/77
7/77
14,26
24
25
66
65
66
8/77
1/78
6/78
4/69
48
26
26
48
26
26
82
66
66
82
66
66
11/77
10/77
10/77
11/77
10/77
10/69*
6/78
6/72*
13,22
23
63
64
6/78
2/78
36
33
16,36
34
72
71
72
71
12/77
12/77
12/77
il/72
50
50,58
50
50
23
83,93
83,93
83
83
64
5/78
5/78
5/78
5/78
1/77
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
11/68*
13,24
24
35
65
65
72
6/78
6/78
9/77
9/68 "
7/64
33
33
16,36
71
71
72
4/78
11/72
10/77
7/64
4/78
11/72
36
33
16,36
34
33
72
71
72
71
70
12/77
12/77
10/7&
10/72
4/77
525
564
548
516
54
54
54
54
89
89
89
8'9
6/78
3/78
39
32
34
13,22
71
63
1/78
11/72
12/74
970
965
951
974
963
967
39
38
37
39
37
38
75
74
73
75
73
74
78
74
77
73
75
73
73
74
76
75
74
75
75
75
74
75
75
73
76
8/77
11/68*
59
5/75*
9/68*
10/69*
10/72
10/72
1/78
1/78
12/77
11/72*
D
Debt-See Credit.
Defense
Military prime contract awards
National defense purchases
7/77
7/77
2/78
7/77
1/78
4/78
4/78
73""
Tables
Historical Series
dexriptiorts
data
(issue date) (issue date)
1/72
11
40
37
12
24
16,36
33
59
Charts
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
920
Four coinciders .
920c
Four coinciders, rate of change
940
Ratio to lagging indicator index
Lagging indicators
930
Six laggers . ...
930c
Six laggers rate of change
Leading indicators
914
Capital investment commitments
915
Inventory investment and purchasing
913
Marginal employment adjustments
917
Money and financial flows
916
Profitability
910
Twelve leaders ....
Twelve leaders rate of change
910c
Construction
29
Building permits new private housing
Contracts awarded, commercial and industrial bldgs. . . 9
Expenditures, plus machinery and equipment sales
69
Gross private domestic fixed investment
Non residential as percent of GNP
248
Nonresidential structures, constant dollars
87
Nonresidential, total, constant dollars
86
Residential as percent of GNP
249
Residential total constant dollars
89
28
Housing starts
Consumer finished goods-See Wholesale prices.
Consumer goods and materials, new orders
8
75
Consumer installment debt
Debt outstanding
66
113
Net change
....
Ratio to personal income
95
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
39
Consumer prices-See also International comparisons.
320
All items percent changes
320c
Food, index
322
Food, percent changes
322c
58
Consumption expenditures-See Personal consumption
expenditures.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, constant dol. . 20
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment, current dol. . - 10
Corporate bond yields
116
Corporate profits-See Profits.
Costs-See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Bank loans to businesses net change
112
Borrowing total private
110
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
72
Consumer installment debt
Debt outstanding
....
66
Net change
113
95
Ratio to personal income
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
39
33
Mortgage debt net change
Crude materials-See Wholesale prices.
Obligations incurred total
. . >.
11/75* Deficit-See Government.
Deflators-See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Deliveries vendor performance
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
11/72
Capital appropriations manufacturing
11/72
Coincident indicators
Employees manufacturing and trade
Employees on private nonagricultural payrolls
10/72*
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices components
10/72*
Industrial production
10/69
920
920c
951
940
9
72
112
Current issue
(page numbers}
Series
number
346
50
87
6/76*
10/72*
346c
51
87
6/76*
10/72*
340
50
86
10/77
6/72*
340c
51
86
10/77
6/72*
341
50
86
10/77
6/72*
341 c
348
349
51
51
51
86
87
87
10/77
8/77
8/77
6/72*
6/72*
6/72*
53
20
62
1/78
. .
Initial claims. State unemployment insurance
Inventories manufacturing and trade
Lagging indicators
....
Leading indicators
New orders durable goods industries
New orders durable goods industries, components , . .
Prices 500 common stocks
Prices selling manufacturing
Prices selling retail trade
Prices selling wholesale trade
Profits manufacturing
Profits net manufacturing and trade
Sales net manufacturing and trade
Workweek mfg production workers
Workweek mfg production workers components
Disposable personal income-See Income.
966
38
962
975
952
950
964
37
39
37
37
38
971
968
976
978
977
969
972
973
961
39
38
39
39
39
38
39
39
37
3/78
10/77
12/77
i6/69*
12/77
2/78
8/77
2/78
4/78
ii/68*
4/69*
12/77
6/78"
8/77
2/78
2/78
2/78
8/77*
6/77
8/77
8/77
8/77
5/77
8/77
8/77
2/78
6/69*
11/68*
11/68*
5/69*
11/68*
11/68*
11/68*
ii/68*
11/68*
NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this indsx: Cl, composite index; 01, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The identification number for this series has been changed since the publication bate shown.
109
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
{See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Historical Series
data descriptions
(issue date! {issue date)
Gross business product
Fixed weighted price index
Fixed weighted price index percent changes
E
Earnings-See Compensation,
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
„
.
Civilian labor force total
Employee hours in nonagri cultural
establish men ts
Employee hours in no nagr (cultural
establishments rate of change
Employees in mining mfg., and construction
Employees manufacturing and trade Dl
Employees on nonaoricultural payrolls
Employees on private nonag payrolls 01
Employment ratio to population
Employment total civilian
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to unemployment
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance
Initial claims, State unemployment insurance, Dl
Layoff fate manufacturing
Marginal employment adjustments Cl
Overtime hours mfg production workers
Participation rate, both sexes, 1B-19 years old
Participation rate females ?0 years and over
Participation rate males ?0 years and over
Part-time workers for economic reasons
Persons engaged in nonagneultural activities
Quit rate myruifaeturiru)
Unemployed both sexes, 18-19 years old ..
Unemployed females 20 years and ovur
Unemployed full-time workers
Unemployed males 20 years and over
Unemployment, average duration
Unemployment rate 1 5 weeks and ovar
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate total
Unemployment total civilian
. ,
Workweek nifrj production workers
Workweek mfg production workers components
Workweek, mfg. production workers, PI
Equipment-See Investment, capital.
Exports-See Foreign trade and International transactions.
2
441
17
52
48
18
48c
40
974
41
963
90
442
46
60
5
962
3
913
21
453
452
451
448
42
4
446
445
447
444
91
44
45
43
37
1
40
18
39
15,18
37
19
52
18
18
17
37
13,17
12
17
52
52
52
52
18
17
52
52
52
52
16,19
19
19
19
19,52
13,17
961
37
60
88
60
61
75
61
73
61
88
60
60
60
73
60
59
60
88
88
88
88
61
60
88
88
88
88
61
61
61
61
61,88
60
76
73
1/78
3/78
3/78
3/78
1/78
8/77
1/78
2/78
4/78
3/78
12/77
4/78
12/77
6/78
1/78
7/77
1/78
3/78
3/78
3/78
3/78
3/78
1/78
3/78
3/78
3/78
3/78
3/78
3/78
12/77
3/78
3/78
1/78
119
35
71
9/77
94
213
917
34
41
12
71
79
59
2/78
11/77
7/77
311
31U
49
49
83
83
10/77
10/77
91
91
91
90
90
81
81
91
90
91
90
90
81
81
91
90
81
81
82
8/77
8/77
8/77
6/77
6/77
11/77
11/77
8/77
6/77
8/77
6/77
6/77
11/77
11/77
8/77
6/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
667
622
618
602
604
256
252
668
606
620
612
616
257
253
669
614
255
250
251
93
56
56
56
55
55
45
45
56
55
56
55
55
45
45
56
55
45
45
48
34
71
6/77
G
Goods output in constant dollars
Government budget, NIPA
Federal expenditures ...
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
State and local expenditures
State and local receipts
State and local surplus or deficit
Surplus or deficit, total
Government purchases of goods and services
Federal, eonstant dollars
Federal, current dollars
,
Federal, percent of GNP
National defense
State and local, constant dollars
State and local, current dollars
State and local percent of GNP
Total constant dollars
Total, current dollars
,
Gross national product
GNP constant dollars
GNP constant dollars differences
GNP,
constant dollars, percent changes
8/68*
GNP current dollars
8/68*
GNP current dollars differences
GNP, current dollars, percent changes
11/68*
GNP ratio to money supply
8/68
Goods output in constant dollars
Implicit price deflator
Implicit price deflator, percent changes
4/72*
Per capita GNP constant dollars
12/74 Gross private domestic invest. -See investment, capital.
8/68
4/72*
6/69*
6/69*
8/68*
12/74
4/72*
4/72'
6/69
4/72
4/72*
8/68
2/78*
F
Federal funds rate
. .. ,
Federal Government-See Government.
Federal Reserve member bank borrowing from
Final sales in constant dollars .....
Financial flows and money Cl
Fixed investment-See Investment, eapitt.il.
Fixed weighted price index, NIPA
Fixed weighted price index, percent changes, NIPA
Food-Sea Consumer prices.
Foreign trade-See also International transactions.
Balance on goods and services
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Exports merchandise total exc military aid
Exports of agricultural products ,
Exports of goods and services, constant dol., NIPA
Exports of good sand services, current dol., NIPA
Exports of goods and services exe military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, oxc. military
Imports merchandise total
Imports of automobiles and parts
Imports of goods and services, constant dol., NIPA
Imports of goods and services, current dol., NIPA ,
Imports of goods and services total
Imports of petroleum and products
Net exports, goods and services, constont dol,, NIPA
Net exports, good sand services, current dol., NIPA ...
Not exports, goods and services, percent of GNP, NIPA
France-Sen International comparisons.
Free reserves ....
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index}
49
21
62
10/77
502
501
500
512
511
510
298
53
53
53
53
53
53
47
89
89
89
89
89
89
82
10/77
10/77
10/77
10/77
10/77
10/77
12/77
263
262
265
564
267
266
268
261
260
44
44
48
54
44
44
48
44
44
80
80
82
89
80
80
82
80
80
11/77
11/77
11/77
10/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
Charts
311
311c
68
49
49
31
83
83
69
10/77
10/77
10/77
50
50b
SOc
200
200b
2QOc
107
49
310
310c
217
20,41
32*"
21
49
49
41
62,79
79
79
79
79
79
70
62
83
83
79
11/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
10/77
10/77
10/77
10/77
11/77
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising ratio to utwmploy merit . .
Hours of production workers, manufacturing
Avf roge weekly overtime
Average workweek
Average workweek components . .
Average workweek, Dl
Housing
Housing starts
. .
Housing units authorised by local bldg. permits
Residential GPDI constant dollars
, ..
Residential GPDI percent of GNP
46
60
18
18
60
60
4/78
21
1
17
13,17
961
37
60
60
76
73
28
29
89
249
26
14,26
26
48
66
66
66
82
6/78
8/77
6/72
4/69
10/77
11/77
10/69*
310
310c
49
49
83
83
10/77
10/77
10/69*
10/69*
345
50
86
6/76*
10/72*
345c
280
64
51
46
31,48
86
81
69,82
6/76*
11/77
10/77
10/72*
10/69
10/69*
346
110
40 *'
41
7/68
10/69*
10/69*
10/69*
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69*
10/69*
10/69
n/n
1/7B
1/7B
12/74
12/74
8/68
2/78*
1
Implicit price deflator GNP percent changes
Imports-See Foreign trade and International transactions.
Income
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector percent changes
50
87
6/76*
10/72*
346c
95
286
287
225
224
111
51
16,36
46
48
41
41
41
87
72
81
82
79
79
79
6/76*
10/72*
12/77
12/77
11/77
11/7/x
11 nt
10/69
10/69*
10/69
10/69
10/69
340
50
86
10/77
6/72*
340c
51
86
10/77
6/72*
341
50
86
10/77
6/72*
341 c
652
651
288
289
220
52
223
S1
51c
108
282
51
56
56
46
48
46
20
41
15,20
40
32
46
86
91
91
81
82
81
62
62
62
10/77
6/72*
5/69*
5/69*
10/69
10/69*
10/69
H)'"
81
9/77
11/77
10/69
283
284
285
348
349
53
13
23
48
46
48
51
51
20
24
29
11/77
11/77
12/77
10/69*
10/69
10/09*
6/72*
6/72*
967
38
82
81
82
87
07
62
64
68
78
74
76
75
73
74
47
26
23
21
21
15,21,57
966
47c
38
40
5
962
45
17
37
19
NOTE; The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income arid product accounts.
*The identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown.
Tables
Historical Series
data descriptions
(issue (tato) (issue dato)
H
Compensation of employees, pet. of nat'l. income —
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
nonfarm business sector, percent changes
Consumer installment debt, ratio to personal income , .
Corporate profits with 1 VA and CCA
Corp. profits with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. income .
Disposable personal income, constant dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant dol. . .
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm economy
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
5/69*
private nonfarm economy percent changes ,
5/69*
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers private nonfarm economy
Earnings, real average hourly, production
5/69*
workers, private nonfarm economy, percent changes .
5/69*
Income on foreign investment in the U S
Income on U S investments abroad
5/69*
Interest net
. .
5/69*
Interest net percent of national i iconic
National income
... ....
Personal income constant dollars
5/69
Personal income current dollars
5/69*
Personal income less transfers constant dollars
Personal income, less transfers, constant dols. roto of ehg.
Personal income ratio to monoy supply
5/69
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA
10/69* Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, percent
of national income
.,
11/72
Rental income of persons with CCA
Rental income of persons with CCA, pet. of nat'l. income
Wage and benefit decisions, first yaar
Wage and benefit decisions life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction ....
Incorporations new busingsses
7/68*
Industrial materials prices
7/68*
Industrial materials prices components
7/68*
Industrial materials prices 01
Industrial production • See also International comparisons.
Business BCjuipmEnt
Consumer goods
10/69
Durable manufactures
Nondurable manufactures
11/73
Total
. .
10/69
Total components
10/69*
Total Dl
10/69*
Total rate of change
11/73
Installment debt -See Credit.
Insured unemployment
10/69
Avg. weekly initial claims, unernploy. insurance
10/69*
Avg. weekly initial claims, unennpioy. insurance, Di . . .
Avg. weekly insured unemployment rats
io/69
11/73
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
1/78
8/77
0/77
12/77
12/77
11/77
9/77
9/77
9/77
7/6B*
12/77
8/77
8/77
1/78
Mil
1/78
4/69*
4/78*
4/69*
66
64
62
62
62,92
77
74
2/78
2/78
2/78
2/78
60
73
61
12/77
6/78
12/77
12/77
11/68
12/77
n/n
6/69
6/69*
6/69
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following- this index)
Interest net
Interest net, percent of national income
Interest rates
Bank rates on short-term business loans
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, secondary market
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
Intermediate materials-See Wholesale prices.
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada index
Canada percent changes
France index
France percent changes
Italy index
Italy percent changes
Japan index
Japan percent changes
United Kingdom index
United Kingdom percent changes
United States index
United States percent changes
West Germany index
West Germany percent changes
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
..
QECD European countries
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
International transactions-See also Foreign trade.
Balance on goods and services
. .
Balance on merchandise trade
Exports merchandise adjusted exc military
Exports merchandise total exc. military aid .
Exports of agricultural products
Exports of goods and services exc military
Exports of nonelectrical machinery
Imports, merchandise, adjusted, exc. military
Imports merchsndise total
mports of automobiles and parts
mports of goods and services total
mports of petroleum and products
ncomeon foreign investments in U S
ncome on U S investments abroad
inventories
Business inventories change constant dollars .
Business inventories, change, current dollars
Business inventories change percent of GNP
Finished goods, manufacturers'
nventories on hand and on order net change
nventories to safes ratio, mfg. and trade (deflated)
Inventory investment and purchasing Cl
Manufacturing and trade, constant dollars
Manufacturing and trade current dollars
Manufacturing and trade, current dollars, change
Manufacturing and trade 01
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.,
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)
288
289
46
48
81
82
12/77
12/77
10/69
10/69*
67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115
36
35
35
35
35
36
35
35
72
72
71
72
72
72
71
72
5/77
9/77
9/77
9/77
9/77
9/77
9/77
9/77
12/74
6/77
6/77
6/77
6/77
6/77
6/77
6/77
6/77
6/77
6/77
5/78
5/78
6/77
6/77
9/72*
58'"
94
94
93
93
94
94
93
93
93
93
83,93
83,93
93
93
723
726
727
728
721
722
47
725
57
57
57
57
57
57
15,21,57
57
92
92
92
92
92
92
62,92
92
1111
10/72*
10/72*
10/72*
10/72*
743
746
747
748
742
19
745
58
58
58
58
58
58
58
94
94
94
94
94
94
94
1/78
1/78
1/78
1/78
1/78
1/78
1/78
667
622
618
602
604
668
606
620
612
616
669
614
652
651
56
56
56
55
55
56
55
56
55
55
56
55
56
56
91
91
91
90
90
91
90
91
90
90
91
90
91
91
8/77
8/77
8/77
6/77
6/77
8/77
6/77
8/77
6/77
6/77
8/77
6/77
8/77
8/77
30
245
247
65
36
77
915
70
71
31
975
78
27,43
43
48
28
14,27
28
12
16,28
28
27
39
28
67,80
80
82
67
67
67
59
67
67
67
75
67
10/77
11/77
11/77
5/77
2/78
2/78
8/77
6/78
38
27
67
6/78
25
25
38
12
24
65
65
74
59
65
1/78
1/78
25
66
7/64
11/73
7/64
7/64
11/73
7/64
7/64
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new
Business expenditures new Dl
Contracts and orders constant dollars
Contracts and orders current dollars
Investment, foreign
Income on foreign investments in U S
Income on U S investments abroad
Italy-See International comparisons.
Tables
Historical Series
data descriptions
(issue date) issue date)
61
970
20
10
25
39
13,24
24
66
75
65
65
8/77
8/77
6/78
6/78
9/68
652
651
56
56
91
91
8/77
8/77
5/69*
5/69*
68
62
63
17
31
16,31
31
30
69
69
69
69
10/77
7/68
9/77
11/68
10/72
11/68
930
930c
952
3
11
40
37
13,17
73
60
2/78
1/78
910
59
950
14
104
11
40
37
34
14,32
73
71
70
nn
nn
913
78
12
28
59
67
7/77
6/78
38
27
67
6/78
8
84
13,22
21
63
63
6/78
1/78
11/68
11/68*
J
Japan-See International comparisons.
733
733c
736
736c
737
737c
738
738c
732
732c
320
320c
735
735c
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations manufacturing backlog
97
Capital appropriations manufacturing new
' 11
Capital appropriations manufacturing, new, Dl
965
Capital investment commitments Cl
914
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial
9
Construction expenditures, business and machinery
69
and equipment sales
Gross private domestic investment
Fixed investment constant dollars
243
242
Fixed investment current dollars
Inventories, business, change in-See Inventories.
86
Nonresidential, total constant dollars
Nonresidential total, percent of GNP
248
Producers' durable equip., nonresid., constant dol. . . 88
Rfsidentisl total constant dollars
89
Residential total percent of GNP
249
87
Structures, nonresidential, constant dollars
241
Total constant dollars
240
Total current dollars
New orders, capital goods, nondef ense, constant
27
dollars
. ..
New orders, capital goods, nondefense, current
24
dollars
58""
58
58
58*'*
58
50
50,58
nn
im
nn
nn
nn
12/77
nn
6/78
3/78
5/77
nn
9/72*
9/72*
9/72*
9/72*
5/69*
5/69*
9/72*
L
Labor cost per unit of gross domestic product
Labor cost per unit of output manufacturing ....
Labor cost per unit of output, private business sector
Labor cost, price per unit of, manufacturing
Labor force-See Employment and unemployment.
Lagging indicators, six
Composite index
Composite index, rate of change
Diffusion index
Layoff rate manufacturing
Leading indicators, twelve
Composite index
Composite index rate of change
Diffusion index
Liabilities of business failures
Liquid assets change in total
Loans-See Credit.
91Qc
M
10/72*
11/68
10/72* Man -hours -See Employment and unemployment.
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg
Materials and supplies on hand and on order, mfg.
change
Materials, crude and intermediate-See Wholesale prices.
Materials, industrial -See Price indexes.
Materials new orders for consumer goods and
Materials, rate of capacity utilization
Merchandise trade-See Foreign trade.
Military-See Defense.
Money and financial flows Cl
5/69* Money supply
5/69*
Liquid assets change in total
Money supply Ml
. .
5/69*
Money supply Ml percent changes
Money supply M2
5/69*
Money supply M2 percent changes
Ratio GNP to money supply Ml
5/69*
Ratio personal income to money supply M2
5/69* Mortgage debt net change
Mortage yields secondary market
Municipal bond yields
5/69*
5/69*
N
12/77
nn
Structures constant dollars
Total constant dollars
Total percent of GNP
1/78
6/78
nn
nn
8/68*
5/75*
12/77
6/78
12
59
1111
104
105
85
106
102
107
108
33
118
117
14,32
14,32
32
32
32
32
32
33
35
35
70
70
70
70
70
70
70
70
72
72
6/78
5/77
6/78
5/77
6/78
10/72
i6/72
10/77
9/77
4/77
9/77
9/77
964
971
38
39
65
65
63
65
65
89
63
63
76
74
75
88
87
86
248
26
26
26
48
66
66
66
82
10/77
10/77
10/77
11/77
516
721
54
57
89
92
3/78
49
62
358
370
37Qc
83
82
84
21
21
16,31
51
51
51
21
21
21
17
62
69
87
87
87
63
63
63
60
24
24
13,23
13,24
24
54
22
22
11/75*
2/78
917
National defense-See Defense.
10/69
10/69* National Government -See Government.
National income-See Income.
9/68
New orders, manufacturers'
27
Capital goods industries, nondefense, constant dol
24
Capital goods industries nondefense current dol
Consumer goods and materials constant dollars
8
20
Contracts
and
orders,
plant
and
equip.,
constant
dol.
.
.
2/69"
Contracts and orders, plant and equip., current dol. . . . 10
2/69
548
Defense products
11/68*
7
Durable goods industries constant dollars
6
Durable goods industries current dollars
New orders manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI
59
Mil
9/77
6/78
6/78
6/78
6/78
6/78
6/78
6/78
6/78
7/64*
7/64
9/68
9/68*
9/68 '
2/78*
8/77
11/68*
10/69*
9/68*
O
43
43
80
80
11/77
11/77
26
48
26
26
48
26
43
43
66
82
66
66
82
66
80
80
10/77
11/77
10/77
10/77
11/77
10/77
11/77
11/77
24
65
6/78
24
65
6/78
Obligations incurred Defense Department
OECD European countries industrial production
Orders-See New orders and Unfilled orders.
10/69* Output-See also Gross national product and
Industrial production.
Goods output constant dollars
Labor cost per unit of
10/69*
Per hour nonfarm business sector
Per hour private business sector
10/69
Per hour, private business sector, percent changes
Ratio to capacity manufacturing (BEA)
Ratio to capacity manufacturing (FRB)
Ratio to capacity materials
. .
....
9/68
Overtime hours, production workers, manufacturing
,.
nn
10/77
6/76*
6/76*
6/76*
li/68
6/68*
10/72*
10/72*
1/78
1/78
1/78
1/78
12/74
9/77
NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown.
111
ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
Current issue
(page numbers)
Series
number
Charts
Tables
Historical
Series
data descriptions
(issue date (issue date)
P
Participation rates, civilian labar force
Both sexes 1B=10 years of age
Females 20 yeors and over
Males 20 years and over
Personal consumption expenditures
Automobiles
Durable floods constant dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Nondurable goods, constant dollars
Nondurable goods current dollars
Services, constant dollars
Services current dollars
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Total percent of GNP
Personal income-See Income.
Personal saving
,
Personal saving rate
Petroleum and products, imports
Rant and equipment -See also Investment, capital.
Business expenditures for
Business expenditues for 01
Contracts and orders for constant dollars
Contracts and orders for current dollars
Population civilian ern ploy men t as percent of
Price indexes
Consumer prices-See also International comparisons.
AH items index
All items percent changes
Pood index
....
Food percent changes
Deflators NIPA
Fixed weighted, gross business product, index
Fixed weighted, gross business product, pet. changes
Implicit price deflator GNP index
Implicit price deflator, GNP, percent changes
Industrial materials
Industrial materials, components
Industrial materials, Dl
Labor cost, price per unit of
Sensitive prices change in
Stock prices-See also International comparisons.
SOO common stocks
500 common stocks, D 1
Wholesale prices
All commodities, index
All commodities, percent change
Consumer finished goods index
Consumer finished goods, percent changes .
. .
Crude materials index
Crude materials, perrentchanges . . .
Intermediate materials index
Intermediate materials, percent changes
Producer finished goods, index
Producer finished goods percent changes
Price to unit labor cost, manufacturing
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, 01 .
Retail trade, 01
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime contracts, military
Prime rate charged by banks
Producer finished goods-See Wholesale prices.
Producers' durable equipment, nonresid., GPOI . . . .
Product ion -See Industrial production and GNP.
Productivity
Output per hour, nonfarm business sector
Output per hour, private business sector
Output per hour, private business sector, pet. changes .
Profitability, Cl
Profits
Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars
Corporate after taxes, current dollars
Corporate, after taxes, with 1 VA and CCA,
constant dollar
Corporate, after taxes, with 1 VA and CCA, cur. do). ...
Corporate, with IVA and CCA .
Corporate, with IVA and CCA, pet. of not'l. income . . ,
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Manufacturing, Dl
Per dollar of sales, manufacturing . .
Profitability, Cl
.
Ratio profits to corporate domestic income
Ratio, profits with IVA and CCA to corporate domestic
income
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA
Proprietors' income with IVA and CCA, pet. of nat'l. inc. .
453
452
451
52
52
52
88
88
88
3/78
3/78
3/78
23
42
42
42
42
42
42
42
42
48
64
79
79
80
80
80
80
79
79
82
10/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
11/77
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69*
292
293
614
47
47
55
81
82
90
12/77
12/77
10/69
7/68*
6/77
61
970
20
10
90
25
39
13,24
24
19
66
75
65
65
61
8/77
8/77
6/78
6/78
4/78
11/68
11/68*
9/68*
83,93
83,93
83
83
5/78
5/78
5/78
5/78
311
10/69*
10/69*
1/78
4/69
967
17
92
38
30
14,29
83
83
83
83
63
78
74
69
68
10/77
10/77
10/77
10/77
23
49
49
49
49
29
4/78
9/77
3/78
4/69*
11/68
19
968
14,29
38
68
74
12/77
5/69
6/77
5/69*
330
330c
334
334c
331
84
84
85
85
84
84
85
85
85
85
69
5/78
5/78
5/78
5/78
5/78
5/78
5/78
5/78
5/78
5/78
9/77
6/69*
332
332c
333
333c
17
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
30
976
978
977
525
109
39
39
39
54
36
75
75
75
89
72
8/77
8/77
8/77
3/78
9/77
310c
331c
88
26
66
10/77
358
370
370c
916
51
51
51
12
87
87
87
59
6/76*
6/76*
6/76*
18
16
29
ZB
68
68
10/77
10/77
80
79
286
287
972
969
15
916
22
29
29
46
48
39
38
30
12
30
68
68
81
82
75
74
69
59
68
10/77
10/77
12/77
12/77
81
282
283
30
46
48
69
81
82
10/77
11/77
11/77
4
17
60
1/78
284
46
81
11/77
48
82
12/77
285
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
5/69*
8/77
5/77
1/78
7/77
10/77
93
89
249
34
26
48
71
66
82
6/77
10/77
11/77
10/69*
59
54
23
23
64
64
10/76
2/78
6/72
41
79
11/77
25
15,23
23
39
28
23
23
66
64
64
75
67
64
64
6/78
12/76
2/78
8/77
5/77
10/76
2/78
47
47
47
47
47
81
82
81
81
BZ
12/77
12/77
12/77
12/77
12/77
14,29
6B
3/78
14,29
38
n
68
74
67
12/77
6/77
6/78
27
67
6/78
114
115
35
35
71
72
9/77
9/77
91
60
5
962
3
16,19
IB
17
37
13,17
61
60
60
73
SO
3/78
4/78
446
445
447
444
37
4
52
52
62
52
19,52
17
88
88
88
88
61 .88
60
3/78
3/78
3/78
3/78
3/76
1/78
44
45
43
19
19
19
61
61
61
3/78
4/72
6/69
4/72
96
25
22
ZZ
63
63
6/78
6/78
9/68
9/68
107
106
32
n
32
13,22
70
70
63
9/77
1/78
330
330,;
334
334c
331
33U
332
332e
333
333c
92
1
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
49
14,29
13,17
84
84
85
85
84
84
85
85
85
85
68
60
5/78
5/78
5/78
5/78
5/78
5/78
5/78
5/78
5/78
5/78
3/78
1/78
37
76
73
2/78
Charts
112
11/72
10/72*
10/72*
1/72
7/68
10/69
10/69*
11/68*
9/68*
2/69*
11/68*
6/72
10/69
10/69
10/69
7/68*
5/69
5/69*
T
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
,
7/64
7/64
U
nm
6/78
1/78
3/78
12/77
6/69*
6/69*
8/68*
4/72*
V
Velocity of money
GNP to money supply Ml, ratio
Personal income to money supply M2, ratio .........
Vendor performance
10/77
12/74
W
Wages and salaries-See Compensation.
West Germany -See International comparisons.
Wholesale prices
All commodities, index
7/68"
All commodities percent changes
Consumer finished goads, index
Consumer finished goods percent changes .
10/69
Crude materials, index
10/69*
Crude materials, percent changes
Intermediate materials index
Intermediate materials, percent changes
Producer finished goads, index
Producer finished goods, percent changes
Sensitive prices, change in
,..,..
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing
10/69 Workweek of production workers, manufacturing,
components
10/69* Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, 01
3/69
961
NOTE: The following abbreviations are used in this index: Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index; GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIPA, national income and product accounts.
*The identification number for this series has been changed since the publication date shown.
Tobies
S
Salaries-See Compensation.
Sales
Final sales, constant dollars
213
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
69
S7
Manufacturing and trade sales, constant dollars . . . . . . .
Manufacturing and trade sales, current dollars
§6
Manufacturing and trade sales, Dl
973
77
Ratio inventories to sales, mfg. and trade .......
Retail sales, constant dollars
59
54
Retail sales, current dollars
Saving
Bus! ness saving
295
298
Government surplus or deficit .
, .
Gross saving, private and government
,..,...
290
Personal saving
292
Personal saving rate . . .
.....
293
Selling prices-See Prices, selling.
Sensitive prices, change in ..........
.....
92
State and local government-See Government.
Stock prices-See also Internationa; comparisons.
500 common stocks
19
500 common stocks, Dl
968
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order . . . 78
Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
38
change
Surplus -See Government.
Unemployment
Duration of unemployment average
Help -wanted advertising to unemployment, ratio .
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unerrploy. insurance ......
Initial claims, avg. weekly, yswrplay. insurance, Dl . . .
I ayof f rate, manufacturing
Number unemployed, civilian labor force
Both sexes, 16-19 years of age
Females, 20 years and over
—
Full-time workers ...........................
il/68
Males ?0 years and over . . . .
Total unemployed
11/68*
Quit rate, manufacturing
11/68*
Unemployment rates
11/68*
1 6 weeks and over . . . . . . . .
Insured, average weekly
li/73
Total
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
Durable goods industries
Durable goods industries, change in . .... .
6/68* United Kingdom-See Inttrnationcl comparisons.
7/77
R
Rental income of persons, with CCA
Rental income of persons, with CCA, percent of national
income
10/69
50
50,58
50
50
310
Reserves free
Residential fixed investment, constant dollars, GPOI ....
Residential fixed investment percent of GNP
Residential structures -See Housing.
Retail sales constant dollars
Retail sales current dollars
10/69
320
320c
322
322c
311c
Historical Series
data descriptions
(issue da to [issue date)
Series
number
10/69*
55
233
232
238
236
239
237
231
230
235
Q
Quit rate, manufacturing .
....,
Current issue
(page n urn bees)
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)
6/69*
a/se'
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this report
in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect relationships or order among the
series. "M" following a series title indicates monthly data;
"Q" indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period
except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ"
(end of quarter).
5. Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs (M).—U.S. Department of
Labor, Employment Training Administration; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (17,60)
To save space, the commonly used sources listed below are
referred to by number:
1. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries, in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and
3
(22,63)
Source 1—U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Source 2—U.S. Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census; Source 3—U.S. Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics; Source 4—Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System.
Following the source for each series is an indication of the
pages on which that series appears. The "Series Finding
Guide" also lists chart and table page numbers for each
series.
l-A. Composite Indexes
910. Composite index of twelve leading indicators (includes
series 1, 3, 8, 12, 19, 20, 29, 32, 36, 92, 104, 105)
(M).-Source I
(11,40,59)
913. Composite index of marginal employment adjustments
(includes series 1, 2, 3, 5) (M).-Source 1 (12,59)
914. Composite index of capital investment commitments
(includes series 12, 20, 29) (M).-Source 1 (12,59)
915. Composite index of inventory investment and purchasing (includes series 8, 32, 36, 92) (M),-Source
1
(12,59)
916. Composite index of profitability (includes series 17,19,
80) (M).-Source 1
(12,59)
917. Composite index of money and financial flows (includes
series 104, 105, 110) (M).-Source 1
(12,59)
920. Composite index of four roughly coincident indicators
(includes series 41, 47, 51, 57) (M).-Source
1
(11,40,59)
930. Composite index of six lagging indicators (includes
series 62, 70, 72, 91, 95, 109) (M).-Source
1
(1140,59)
940. Ratio, coincident composite index (series 920) to lagging composite index (series 930) (M).-Source 1(12,59)
6. Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods industries, in current dollars (M).-Source 2 (22,63,76)
8. Value of manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods
and materials in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 2, and*
3
(13,22,63)
9. Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc. (Used by permission. This
series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(24,65)
10. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in
current dollars (M),-Source 2 and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of the Census and Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(24,65)
11. Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q)-The Conference Board. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (25,65)
12. Index of net business formation (M).-Source 1;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
and National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc.
(13,24,64)
13. Number of new business incorporations (M).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysts and National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc.
(24,64)
1. Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).-Source3
(13,17,60,76)
2. Accession rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (17,60)
(17,60)
24. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, in current dollars (M).—Source
2
(24,65)
25. Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Source 2
(22,63)
27. Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense, in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1,
2, and 3
(24,65)
28. New private housing units started, total (M).—Source
2
(26,66)
29. Index of new private housing units authorized by local
building permits (M).-Source 2
(14,26,66)
30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q). -Source
1
(27,43,67,80)
31. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories, total (M).-Sources 1 and 2
(27,67)
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting
slower deliveries (M),-Purchasing Management Association of Chicago
(13,22,63)
33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies (M).—American
Council of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban
Development, Government National Mortgage Association; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks; U.S.
Savings and Loan League; and source 4; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(33,70)
34. Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars (Q).
Source 1
(30,69)
15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).—Federal Trade Commission and
Securities and Exchange Commission; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(30,69)
35. Net cash flow, corporate, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(30,69)
16. Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(29,68)
17. Index of price per unit of labor cost, manufacturingratio, index of wholesale prices of manufactured goods
(unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees in manufacturing (sum of wages,
salaries, and supplements to wages and salaries) per
unit of output (M),-Sources 1, 3, and 4
(30,69)
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).Standard & Poor's Corporation
(14,29,58,68,94)
20. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment in 1972
dollars (M).—Sources 1, 2, 3, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company
(13,24,65)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3 (13,17,60)
4. Quit rate, manufacturing (M).-Source 3
23. Index of industrial materials prices (M).—Source
3
(29,68,78)
14. Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc.
(34,71)
18. Corporate profits after taxes in 1972 dollars (Q).Source 1
(29,68)
I-B. Cyclical Indicators
22. Ratio of profits (after taxes) to total corporate domestic
income (Q).-Source 1
(30,68)
21. Average weekly overtime hours of production workers,
manufacturing (M).-Source 3
(17,60)
36. Net change in inventories on hand and on order in 1972
dollars (smoothed) (M).-Sources 1, 2, and 3(14,27,67)
37. Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(19,52,61,88)
38. Change in stocks of materials and supplies on hand and
on order, manufacturing (M).-Source 2
(27,67)
39. Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over (EOM).—American Bankers Association
(34,71)
40. Number of employees in nonagricultural goodsproducing industries—mining, manufacturing, and construction (M).-Source 3
(18,61)
41. Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey (M).-Source 3
(15,18,61)
42. Number of persons engaged in nonagricultural activities,
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(18,61)
43. Unemployment rate, total (M).-Sources 2 and 3(19,61)
113
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M).-Sources 2
and 3
(19,61)
45. Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).—U.S. Department of Labor, Employment
Training Administration
(19,61)
46. Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers (M).The Conference Board
(18,60)
47. Index of industrial production, total (M).—Source
4
(15,21,40,57,62,77,92)
48. Employee-hours
(M).-Source 3
in nonagricultural
establishments
(18,40,60)
49. Value of goods output in 197?. dollars (Q).-Source
1
(21,62)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(20,40,41,62,79)
51. Personal income, less transfer payments, in 1972
dollars (M).-Source 1
(15,20,40,62)
66. Consumer installment debt (EOM)-Source 4; FRB
seasonally adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted figure for previous month to obtain current
figure
(36,72)
67. Bank rates on short-term business loans
Source 4
(Q).~~
(36,72)
68. Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross domestic
product (1972 dollars), nonfinancial corporations-ratio
of current-dollar compensation of employees to real
gross corporate product (Q).—Source 1
(31,69)
69. Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and commercial construction put in place) (M).—Source
2
(25,66)
70. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value,
in 1972 dollars (EOM).-Sources 1, 2, and 3(16,28,67)
71. Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value,
in current dollars (EOM).-Sources 1 and 2 (28,67)
87. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
structures, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1 (26,66)
88. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential
producers' durable equipment, in 1972 dollars (Q),~
Source 1
(26,66)
89. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total residential, in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(26,66)
90. Ratio, civilian employment to total population of working age (M).~Sources 1, 2, and 3
(19,61)
91. Average (mean) duration of unemployment in weeks
(M).-Sources 2 and 3
(16,19,61)
92. Change in sensitive prices (WPI of crude materials excluding foods, feeds, and fibers) (smoothed) (M),Sources 1 and 3
(14,29,68)
93. Free reserves (member banks excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Source 4
(34,71)
94. Member bank borrowings from the Federal Reserve
(M).-Source 4
(34,71)
52. Personal income, total, in 1972 dollars (M).—Source
1
(20,62)
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks (M).—Source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(16,36,72)
95. Ratio, consumer installment debt to personal income
(EOM).-Sources 1 and 4
(16,36,72)
53. Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing, and
construction in 1972 dollars (M).—Sources 1 and
3
.
(20,62)
73. Index of industrial production, durable manufactures
(M).-Source 4
(21,62)
96. Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(EOM).-Source 2
(22,63)
54. Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).—Source
2
(23,64)
74. Index of industrial production, nondurable manufactures (M).-Source 4
(21,62)
55. Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles (Q).Source 1
(23,64)
75. Index of industrial production, consumer goods (M),—
Source 4
(23,64)
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
(EOQ).—The Conference Board. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the source.)
(25,65)
56. Manufacturing and trade sales in current dollars (M).—
Sources 1 and 2
(23,64)
76. Index of industrial production, business equipment
(M).-Source 4
(25,66)
57. Manufacturing and trade sales in 1972 dollars (M).Sources 1, 2, and 3
(15,23,64)
77. Ratio, constant-dollar inventories (series 70) to sales
(series 57), manufacturing and trade, total (EOM).~
Sources 1, 2, and 3
(28,67)
58. Index of consumer sentiment (Q).—University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(23,64)
59. Sales of retail stores in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1
and 3
(23,64)
60. Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to number of persons unemployed (series 37)
(M).—Sources 1, 2, 3, and The Conference
Board
(18,60)
61. Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
total (Q).-Source 1
(25,66)
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output, total
manufacturing—ratio, index of compensation of
employees in manufacturing (sum of wages, salaries,
and supplements to wages and salaries) to index of industrial production, manufacturing (M).-Sources 1 and
4
(16,31,69)
63. Index of unit labor cost, private business sector (Q).Source 3
(31,69)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1
(31,48,69,82)
65. Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM),-Source
2
(28,67)
114
78. Stocks of materials and supplies on hand and on order,
manufacturing (EOM).-Source 2
(28,67)
79. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in current dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(29,68)
80. Corporate profits after taxes with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(29,68)
81. Ratio of profits (after taxes) with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments to total corporate
domestic income (Q).-Source 1
(30,69)
82. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (Q).—Source
4
(21,63)
102. Change in money supply M2 (demand deposits and
currency plus time deposits at commercial banks other
than large CD's) (M).-Source 4
(32,70)
104. Change in total liquid assets (smoothed) (M)-Sources
1 and 4
(14,32,70)
105. Money supply Ml (demand deposits plus currency) in
1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3, and 4 (14,32,70)
106. Money supply M2 (demand deposits and currency plus
time deposits at commercial banks other than large
CD's) in 1972 dollars (M).-Sources 1, 3, and 4(32,70)
107. Ratio,gross national product to money supply Ml (Q).-*
Sources 1 and 4
(32,70)
108. Ratio, personal income to money supply M2 (M),~
Sources 1 and 4
(32,70)
109. Average prime rate charged by banks (M).-Source
4
(36,72)
110. Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in
credit markets (Q).-Source 4
(33,71)
83. Rate of capacity utilization, manufacturing (EOQ)Source 1
(21,63)
112. Net change in bank loans to businesses (M), -Source 4;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(33,71)
84. Rate of capacity utilization, materials (Q)-Source
4
(21,63)
113. Net change in consumer installment debt (M).—Source
4
(33,71)
85. Change in money supply Ml (demand deposits plus
currency) (M).-Source 4
(32,70)
114. Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Source 4
(35,71)
86. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential, in 1972 dollars (Q)-Source 1 (26,66)
115. Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-U.S, Department of the Treasury
(35,72)
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
116. Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).-Citibank and U.S. Department of the
Treasury
(35,72)
117. Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(35,72)
118. Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages (M).-U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal
Housing Administration
(35,72)
119. Federal funds rate (M).—Source 4
227. Per capita disposable personal income in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Sources 1 and 2
(41,79)
973. Diffusion index of net sales, manufacturing and tradeabout 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).-Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(39,75)
231. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,79)
230. Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,79)
232. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,79)
(35,71)
I-C. Diffusion Indexes
950. Diffusion index of twelve leading indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(37,73)
951. Diffusion index of four roughly coincident indicator
components (M).—Source 1
(37,73)
952. Diffusion index of six lagging indicator components
(M).-Source 1
(37,73)
961. Diffusion index of average workweek of production
workers, manufacturing—21 industries (M).-Sources 1
and 3
(37,73,76)
962. Diffusion index of initial claims for unemployment insurance, State programs—51 areas (M).—Source 1 and
U.S. Department of Labor, Employment Training Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(37,73)
963. Diffusion index of number of employees on private nonagricultural payrolls—172 industries (M).-Source
3
(37,73)
964. Diffusion index of value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries—35 industries (M).—Sources
1 and 2
(38,74,76)
965. Diffusion index of newly approved capital appropriations, deflated—17 industries (Q).—The Conference
Board. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(38,74)
966. Diffusion index of industrial production—24 industries
(M).-Sources 1 and 4
(38,74,77)
967. Diffusion index of industrial materials prices—13 industrial materials (M).-Sources 1 and 3 (38,74,78)
968. Diffusion index of stock prices, 500 common stocks—
62-82 industries (M).-Standard & Poor's Corporation ,
(38,74)
969. Diffusion index of profits, manufacturing—about 1,000
corporations (Q).—Citibank; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(38J4)
970. Diffusion index of business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, total—18 industries (Q).—Source
1
(39,75)
971. Diffusion index of new orders, manufacturing—about
700 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (39,75)
972. Diffusion index of net profits, manufacturing and
trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun &
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(39,75)
974. Diffusion index of number of employees, manufacturing
and trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(39,75)
233. Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,79)
975. Diffusion index of level of inventories, manufacturing
and trade—about 1400 businessmen reporting (Q).—
Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series
may not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(39,75)
236. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,80)
976. Diffusion index of selling prices, manufacturing—about
700 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (39,75)
977. Diffusion index of selling prices, wholesale trade—about
450 businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (39,75)
978. Diffusion index of selling prices, retail trade—about 250
businessmen reporting (Q).—Dun & Bradstreet, inc.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (39,75)
II-A. National Income and Product
235. Personal consumption expenditures, total, as a percent
of gross national product (Q).—Source 1
(48,82)
237. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,80)
238. Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable goods,
in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,80)
239. Personal consumption expenditures, services, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(42,80)
240. Gross private domestic investment, total, in current
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,80)
241. Gross private domestic investment, total, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,80)
242. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,80)
243. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total, in 1972
dollars (Q).-Source 1
(43,80)
30. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in 1972 dollars (Q).—Source
1
(27,43,67,80)
245. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(43,80)
50. Gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source
1
(20,40,41,62,79)
247. Gross private domestic investment, change in business
inventories, all industries, as a percent of gross national
product (Q).-Source 1
(48,82)
64. Compensation of employees as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1
(31,48,69,82)
200. Gross national product in current dollars (Q).—Source
1
(41,79)
213. Final sales (series 50 minus series 30) in 1972 dollars
(Q).-Source 1
(41,79)
217. Per capita gross national product in 1972 dollars (Q).Sources 1 and 2
(41,79)
220. National income in current dollars (Q).—Source
1
(46,81)
223. Personal income in current dollars (M).—Source
1
(41,62)
224. Disposable personal income in current dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(41,79)
225. Disposable personal income in 1972 dollars (Q).—
Source 1
(41,79)
248. Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential,
as a percent of gross national product (Q). -Source
1
(48,82)
249. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential, as
a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(48,82)
250. Net exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(45,81)
251. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of gross
national product (Q).-Source 1
(48,82)
252. Exports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(45,81)
253. Imports of goods and services in current dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q).—Source
1
(45,81)
115
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
255. Net exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars;
national income and product accounts (Q), Source
1
(45,81)
256. Exports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q).—Source 1 (45,81)
295. Business saving—undistributed corporate profits plus
capital consumption allowances with inventory valuation
and capital consumption adjustments (Q).-Source
1
(47,81)
298. Government surplus or deficit, total (Q) -Source
1
(47,82)
257. Imports of goods and services in 1972 dollars; national
income and product accounts (Q), -Source 1 (45,81)
262, Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(44,80)
263, Federal Government purchases of goods and services in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(44,80)
265. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as
a percent of gross national product (Q).—Source
1
(48,82)
266, State and local government purchases of goods and services in current dollars (Q).—Source 1
(44,80)
267, State and local government purchases of goods and services in 1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(44,80)
268. State and local government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product (Q),—
Source 1
(48,82)
280. Compensation of employees (QV- Source 1
(46,81)
282. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q). Source 1
(46,81)
283. Proprietors' income with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).-'Source 1
(48,82)
284. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment (Q).-Source 1
(46,81)
285. Rental income of persons with capital consumption adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).—Source
1
(48,82)
286. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments (Q).—Source 1
(46,81)
287. Corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital
consumption adjustments as a percent of national income (Q).-Source 1
(48,82)
288. Net interest (Q).-Souree 1
(46,81)
37, Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).~Sources 2 and 3
(19,52,61,88)
441. Total civilian labor force, labor force survey (M),—
Sources 2 and 3
(52,88)
442. Total civilian employment, labor force survey (M),—
Sources 2 and 3
(52,88)
260, Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
current dollars (Q).-Source 1
(44,80)
261, Government purchases of goods and services, total, in
1972 dollars (Q).-Source 1
(44,80)
II-C. Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment
II-B. Prices, Wages, and Productivity
444. Number unemployed, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(52,88)
310. Implicit price deflator, gross national product (Q),
Source 1
(49,83)
445. Number unemployed, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(52,88)
311. Fixed weighted price index, gross business product
(Q).-Source 1
(49,83)
446. Number unemployed, both sexes 16-19 years of aget
labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(52,88)
320. Index of consumer prices, all items (M).—Source
3
(50,58,83,93)
447. Number unemployed, full-time workers, labor force survey (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(52,88)
448. Number employed, part-time workers for economic
reasons, labor force survey (M).—Sources 2 and
3
(52,88)
322. Index of consumer prices, food (M) - Source 3(50,83)
330. Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M), Source
3
(49,84)
331. Index of wholesale prices, crude materials for further
processing (M).-Source 3
(49,84)
332. Index of wholesale prices, intermediate materials, supplies, and components (M).-Source 3
(49,85)
333. Index of wholesale prices, producer finished goods
(M).-Source 3
(49,85)
334. Index of wholesale prices, consumer finished goods
(M).-Source 3
(49,85)
451. Civilian labor force participation rate, males 20 years
and over (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(52,88)
452. Civilian labor force participation rate, females 20 years
and over (M).--Sources 2 and 3
(52,88)
453. Civilian labor force participation rate, both sexel 16-19
years of age (M).-Sources 2 and 3
(52,88)
II-D. Government Activities
500. Federal Government surplus or deficit; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Source 1
(53,89)
335. Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M).-Source 3
(49,84)
340. Index of average hourly earnings of production workers,
private nonfarm economy—adjusted for overtime (in
manufacturing only), interindustry employment shifts,
and seasonality (M).-Source 3
(50,86)
501. Federal Government receipts; national income and
product accounts (Q),—Source 1
(53,89)
502. Federal Government expenditures; national income and
product accounts (Q). Source 1
(53,89)
510. State and local government surplus or deficit; national
income and product accounts (Q),=Source 1 (53,89)
341. Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy—adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only), interindustry employment
shifts, and seasonality (M).-Source 3
(50,86)
511. State and local government receipts; national income
and product accounts (Q), Source 1
(53,89)
345. Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source 3
(50,86)
512. State and local government expenditures; national income and product accounts (Q).-Source 1 (53,89)
346. Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, nonfarm business sector (Q).-Source
3
(50,87)
516. Defense Department obligations incurred, total, excluding military assistance (Q). U.S. Department of
Defense, OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Program
Financial Control; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(54,89)
348. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesfirst year average (mean) changes (Q).--Source
3
(51,87)
349. Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industriesaverage (mean) changes over life of contract (Q).—
Source 3
(51,87)
525. Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms
and institutions (M).—U.S. Department of Defense,
OSD, Comptroller, Directorate for Management Information Operation and Control; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(54,89)
(47,81)
358, Index of output per hour, all persons, nonfarm business
sector (Q).<~Source 3
(50,87)
548. Value of manufacturers' new orders, defense products
(M).-Source 2
(54,89)
293, Personal saving rate—personal saving as a percent of
disposable personal income (Q), Source 1 (47,82)
370. Index of output per hour, all persons, private business
sector (Q).-Source 3
(50,87)
564. Federal Government purchases of goods and services for
national defense (Q).-Source 1
(54,89)
289. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).Source 1
(48,82)
290. Gross saving—private saving plus government surplus or
deficit (Q).-Source 1
(47,81)
292. Personal saving (Q).—Source 1
116
TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES- Continued
II-E. U.S. International Transactions
II-F. International Comparisons
602. Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total (M).Source 2
(55,90)
19. United States, index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
(M).-Standard & Poor's Corporation (14,29,58,68,94)
604. Exports of agricultural products (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(55,90)
47. United States, index of industrial production, total
(M).-Source4
(15,21,40,57,62,77,92)
606. Exports of nonelectrical machinery (M).—Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(55,90)
612. General imports, total (M).-Source 2
(55,90)
614. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products (M).—
Source 2; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(55,90)
616. Imports of automobiles and parts (M).-Source 2;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(55,90)
320. United States, index of consumer prices, all items
(M).-Source 3
(49,58,83,93)
721. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European countries, index of industrial production (M).—Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (Paris)
(57,92)
722. United Kingdom, index of industrial production (M).—
Central Statistical Office (London)
(57,92)
723. Canada, index of industrial production (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa)
(57,92)
618. Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military grants
(Q).-Source 1
(56,91)
620. Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military
(Q).-Source 1
(56,91)
725. West Germany, index of industrial production (M).Federal Statistical Office (Wiesbaden); seasonal adjustment by OECD
(57,92)
622. Balance on merchandise trade (Q).—Source 1 (56,91)
651. Income on U.S. investments abroad (Q).-Source
1
(56,91)
652. Income on foreign investments in the United States
(Q).-Source 1
(56,91)
667. Balance on goods and services (Q).—Source 1(56,91)
733. Canada, index of consumer prices (M).—Statistics
Canada (Ottawa); percent changes seasonally adjusted
by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(58,94)
735. West Germany, index of consumer prices (M).-Federal
Statistical Office (Wiesbaden); percent changes
seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(58,93)
736. France, index of consumer prices (M).-- Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(58,93)
737. Italy, index of consumer prices (M),—Institute Centrale
di Statistica (Rome); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(58,94)
738. Japan, index of consumer prices (M).—Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(58,93)
742. United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-The Financial Times (London)
(58,94)
743. Canada, index of stock prices (M).—Statistics Canada
(Ottawa)
(58,94)
726. France, index of industrial production (M).—Institut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(57,92)
727. Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lnstituto
Centrale dt Statistica (Rome)
(57,92)
745. West Germany, index of stock prices (M).—Federal
Statistical Office (Wiesbaden)
(58,94)
746. France, index of stock prices (M).—Institut National de
la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)(58,94)
747. Italy, index of stock prices (M).-Banca d'ltalia
(Rome)
(58,94)
668. Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers under
U.S. military grants (Q).-Source 1
(56,91)
669. Imports of goods and services, total (Q).-Source
1
(56,91)
732. United Kingdom, index of consumer prices (M).—
Ministry of Labour (London); percent changes seasonally adjusted by Bureau of Economic Analysis (58,93)
728. Japan, index of industrial production (M).—Ministry of
International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(57,92)
748. Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock Exchange (Tokyo)
(58,94)
Superintendent of Documents
U.S. Government Printing Office
Washington, D.C. 20402
OFFICIAL BUSINESS
Penalty for Private Use $300
FIRST-CLASS MAIL
POSTAGE & FEES PAID
USDC
WASHINGTON, D.C,
PERMIT No. G-56
@FedFRASER