Full text of Business Conditions Digest : June 1975

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This report was prepared in the Statistical Indicators
Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Technical
staff and their responsibilities for the publication
areBarry A. Beckman—Technical supervision and
review,
Morton Somer—Selection of seasonal adjustment
methods,
Betty F. Tunstall-Collection and compilation of
basic data. (Telephone 301-763-7106)
The cooperation of various government and private
agencies which provide data is gratefully acknowledged. Agencies furnishing data are indicated in the
list of series and sources at the back of this report.
This publication is prepared under the general
guidance of a technical committee established by the
Office of Management and Budget. The committee
consists of the following persons:

U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Rogers C. B. Morton, Secretary
James L. Pate, Assistant Secretary
for Economic Affairs

Social and Economic Statistics Administration
Edward D. Failor, Administrator

Edgar R. Fiedler, Chairman
Department of the Treasury
Joseph W. Duncan, Office of Management and Budget
Murray F. Foss, Council of Economic Advisers,
Executive Office of the President
George Jaszi, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Department of Commerce
J. Cortland Peret, Federal Reserve Board
Julius Shiskin, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Department of Labor

NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRO DUCT accounts summarize both receipts and
final expenditures for the
personal, business, foreign, and governmen t
sectors of the economy
and provide useful
measures of total
economic activity. The
total of the final
expenditures, which
equals the total of the
receipts, is known as
gross national product,
the most comprehensive single measure
of aggregate economic
output. GNP is defined
as the total market
value of the final output of goods and services produced by the
Nation's economy.

CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
are economic time
series which have been
singled out as leaders, coinciders, or /aggers in relatibn to movements in
aggregate economic
activity. In this report,
the series on the
NBER's list of cyclical
indicators are classified
by economic process
and by cyclical timing.
These indicators were
selected primarily on
the basis of their
cyclical behavior, but
they have also proven
useful in forecasting,
measuring, and
interpreting other
short-term fluctuations
in aggregate economic
activity.

BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
George Jaszi, Director
Morris R. Goldman, Deputy Director
Beatrice N. Vaccara, Associate Director for National
Analysis and Projections
Feliks Tamm, Editor

ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS data
provide information
on the plans of
businessmen and consumers regarding their
major economic activities in the near future.
This information is considered to be a valuable
aid to economic forecasting either directly
or as an indication of
the state of confidence
concerning the economic outlook. A,
number of surveys by
various organizations
and government
agencies have been
developed in recent
years to ascertain
anticipations and
intentions. The results
of some of these
surveys, expressed as
time series, are
presented in this
report.

Subscription price, including supplements, is $55.25 a year ($13.85 additional for foreign mailing). Single issues are $4.35. Airmail delivery is available at an additional charge. For information about domestic or foreign
airmail delivery, write to the Superintendent of Documents (address below),




This monthly report brings together many of the economic
time series found most useful by business analysts and
forecasters. Its predecessor. Business Cycle Developments,
emphasized the cyclical indicators approach to the analysis of
business conditions and was based largely on the list of
leading, roughly coincident, and lagging indicators maintained by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Some other approaches commonly used by students of
economic conditions include econometric models and
anticipations and intentions data. The econometric model
concept utilizes historical and mathematical relationships
among consumption, private investment, government, and
various components of the major aggregates to generate
forecasts of gross national product and its composition.
Anticipations and intentions data express the expectations of
businessmen and the intentions of consumers. Most of the
content of Business Cycle Developments has been retained in
this new report and additional data reflecting the emphasis of
other approaches have been added to make it more generally
useful to those concerned with an evaluation of current
business conditions and prospects.
The use of the National Bureau's list of indicators and
business cycle turning dates in the cyclical indicators section
of this report, as well as the use of other concepts, is not to
be taken as implying endorsement by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis or any other government agency of any
particular approach to economic analysis. This report is
intended only to provide statistical information so arranged
as to facilitate the analysis of the course of the Nation's
economy.
Almost all of the basic data presented in this report have
been published by their source agencies. A series finding
guide, as well as a complete list of Series titles and data
sources, is shown at the back of this report.

enclosing a copy of your address label. Make checks payable to the Sup
tendent of Documents. Send to U.S. Government Printing Office, V
ington, D.C. 20402;

New Features and Changes for This Issue

iii

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
Seasonal Adjustments
MCD Moving Averages
Reference Turning Dates
Section A. National Income and Product
Section B. Cyclical Indicators
Section C. Anticipations and Intentions
Section D. Other Key Indicators
Section E. Analytical Measures
Section F. International Comparisons
How to Read Charts
How to Locate a Series
Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes

BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST
JUNE 1975
Data Through May
Series ES1 No. 75-6

1
1
1
1
2
3
3
3
3
4
4
5

PART I. CHARTS

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10
A11

Gross National Product
National and Personal Income
Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6

Employment and Unemployment
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade . .
Fixed Capital Investment
I nventories and I nventory I nvestment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit




44
46

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
D6

Foreign Trade
48
Balance of Payments and Major Components ... 49
Federal Government Activities
54
Price Movements
56
Wages and Productivity
58
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components ... 60

' ANALYTICAL MEASURES
20
23
25
28
30
33

Selected Indicators by Timing

B7
Composite Indexes
I B8| NBER Short List

Aggregate Series
Diffusion Indexes

37
39

E1
E2
E3
E5

Actual and Potential Gross National Product ... 61
Analytical Ratios
62
Diffusion Indexes
63
Rates of Change
65

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
Consumer Prices
Industrial Production
Stock Prices

The Secretary of Commerce has determined that the publication of this periodical is necessary in the
transaction of the public business required by law of this Department. Use of funds for printing this
periodical has been approved by the Director of the Office of Management and Budget through
September 1, 1975.

66
67
68

PART II. TABLES

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
Gross National Product
National and Personal Income

A3
A4
A5
A6
A7
A8
A9
A10

Personal Consumption Expenditures
Gross Private Domestic Investment
Foreign Trade
Government Purchases of Goods and Services .
Final Sales and Inventories
National Income Components
Saving
Real Gross National Product
Shares of GNP and National Income

H

69
69
70
70
71
71
71
71
72
72
73

I nventories and I nventory I nvestment
Prices, Costs, and Profits
Money and Credit

74
76
77
78
79
81

B7

Selected Indicators by Timing
Composite Indexes

83

Fixed Capital Investment

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
Foreign Trade
Balance of Payments and Major Components

D3
D4
D5
D6

Federal Government Activities
Price Movements
Wages and Productivity
Civilian Labor Force and Major Components

Actual and Potential GNP

B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6

Employment and Unemployment

84
84

86
87
89
90
92
94

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

CYCLICAL INDICATORS
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade

C1 I Aggregate Series
C2 | Diffusion Indexes

Analytical Ratios
Diffusion Indexes
Selected Diffusion Index Components

95
96
97
99

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
F1 I Consumer Prices
F2 I Industrial Production
F3 I Stock Prices

103
103
104

PART III. APPENDIXES

A. MCD and Related Measures of Variability (See December 1974 issue)
QCD and Related Measures of Variability (See November 1974 issue)
B. Current Adjustment Factors
C. Historical Data for Selected Series
D. Descriptions and Sources of Series (See "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide")
E. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions in the United States: 1854 to 1970 (See February 1975issue)
F. Specific Trough and Peak Dates for Selected Business Indicators (See April 1975issue)
G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide
Titles and Sources of Series




105
106

112
117
121

aders are invited to submit comments and
gestions concerning this publication.
dress them to Feliks Tamm, Statistical
licators Division, Bureau of Economic Analysis,
>. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20233

NEW FEATURES
AND CHANGES
FOR THIS ISSUE

1. Beginning with this issue, pages v-viii show charts
d data for the new composite index of 12 leading indicators
d those components which are not shown elsewhere in BCD.
e old index of 12 leaders is shown on page 112.
2. The series on U.S. balance of payments have been
vised for the period 1964 to date. These revisions reflect
3 source agency!s annual updating of these statistics.
Further information concerning these revisions may be
tained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Dnomic Analysis, Balance of Payments Division.
3. The Index of new private housing units authorized by
3al building permits (series 29) has been revised for the
iriod beginning January 1973. This revision reflects the
irce agency's application of new seasonal factors for that
riod.
Further information concerning this revision may be
bained from the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
isus, Construction Statistics Division.
4. Appendix C contains historical data for series 5, 9,
, 13, 40, 42, 43, 44, and 841-848.
5. Recession comparisons are shown in appendix G for
r-ies 1, 5, 19, 29, 41, 43, 47, 48, 114, 205, 78lc, and 825.

3 July issue of BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST is scheduled for
Lease on July 31•



ill

A limited number of
changes are made from
time to time to Incorporate recent findings of economic
research, newly available time series, and
revisions made by
source agencies In
concept composition,
comparability, coverage,
seasonal adjustment
methods, benchmark
data, etc. Changes may
result In revisions of
data, additions or
deletions of series,
changes In placement of
series In relation to
other series, changes
In composition of
Indexes, etc.

6 SESA PROJECTS
for economic
analysis




BUSINESS CONDITIONS DIGEST A monthly report for analyzing
economic fluctuations over a short span of years.
This report brings together approximately 600 economic time series in a form convenient for analysts whether their approach to the study of current business conditions and prospects is the national income model, the leading indicators, anticipations
and intentions, or a combination of these. Other types of data such as foreign trade,
Federal Government activities, and international series are included to facilitate a
more complete analysis.
Data are presented in charts and tables. Appendixes provide historical data, series
descriptions, seasonal adjustment factors, and measures of variability. A computer
tape containing data for most of the series is available for purchase.

DEFENSE INDICATORS A monthly report for analyzing the current and prospective impact of defense activity on the national economy.
This report brings together the principal time series on defense activities which
influence short-term changes in the national economy. These include series on
obligations, contracts, orders, shipments, inventories, expenditures, employment,
and earnings. The approximately 60 time series included are grouped in accordance
with the time at which the activities they measure occur in the defense orderproduction-delivery process. Charts and analytical tables facilitate interpretation.

LONG TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH A report for the study of economic trends over a long span of years, 1860-1970.
This report has been developed from available statistics to provide a comprehensive,
long-range view of the U.S. economy. It is a basic research document for economists,
historians, investors, teachers, and students. It brings together under one cover, in
meaningful and convenient form, the complete statistical basis for a study of longterm economic trends. A computer tape file of the time series included in the report
is available for purchase.

COMPUTER PROGRAMS FOR TIME SERIES ANALYSIS The
source statements for FORTRAN IV programs used by SESA in its analysis
of time series are available on a single computer tape.
SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT PROGRAMS.—Two variants of the Census computer program for measuring and analyzing seasonal, trading-day, cyclical, and irregular
fluctuations. They are particularly useful in analyzing economic fluctuations which
take place within a year. The X-ll variant is used for adjusting monthly data and
the X-11Q for quarterly data. These programs make additive as well as multiplicative
adjustments and compute many summary and analytical measures.
DIFFUSION INDEX PROGRAM.—A computer program for computing diffusion indexes,
cumulated diffusion indexes, and summary measures of the properties of each index.

SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS A monthly report for analyzing current economic developments.
This report provides a useful combination of current data for more than 2,500
statistical series and significant articles analyzing economic developments. These
data and analyses include such areas as the national income and product accounts,
the balance of payments accounts, plant and equipment expenditures, regional
personal income, and the input-output accounts.

BUSINESS STATISTICS A biennial reference volume containing
statistical series reported currently in the Survey of Current Business.
This report provides historical data back to 1947 for nearly 2,500 time series. The
series are accompanied by concise descriptions as to their composition, methods of
compilation, comparability, revisions, and availability. Also listed are the names and
addresses of organizations which provide the basic data for the series.

IV

CHART I. NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS

( N O V . ) (OCT.)

*

(JU1_Y)(MAY)

*

(AUG.MAPR.)

P

T

*

(APR.)(FEB.)

P

mimiiii|iii|iii|Mrmi|iii|i!i|iiUHi|iii|i]niii|iii|iii|in

IIMIII III M i l l M I ! | T I I | I I I | I I I | I M | ! M | M !

Index: 1967=100

New index of 12 leading indicators, original trend

140
130
120
110 ,_
100 ^
90 3

70

s/

New index of 12 leading indicators, reverse trend adjusted1

180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100

90 2
80

r^y

70

60
50

/••"•

s

III [[] Ml Mi III IN

40

III III MM ill

III 111 .III III III III III III III III III

1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

HOTE: Current data for these series are shown on page vii. The old index of 12 leading indicators is shown on page 112.
*Revised reference turning dates. (See May 1975 BCD, page vii.)
'"'Original trend replaced by trend of deflated coincident index (series 825).




1

CHART II. COMPONENTS OF THE NEW COMPOSITE INDEX OF LEADING INDICATORS

(NOV.) (OCT.)

P

T

(JULY)(MAY)

*

(AUG.MAPR.)
*

(APR.)IFEB.)
*

( D E C . ) (NOV.)

NT I Mill I TIT TIT TTT TIT TIT TIT TTT TIT TITTlT TTT TTT TTT TIT TIT T M Ml

FIT MI-TIT III Ml TTTTTTTTT
35
30

X213. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 1967 dollars (bil. dol.)

V

CM

25 ^
20 1

/^

15
12
10

10D. Contracts and orders for plant and equipment,
ent, ^
1967 dollars (bil. dol.)

/^W^N

MV ^
4
1

+30
+20
+10

X170D. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1967 dollars, smoothed (ann. rate, bil. dol.

i

v/v

0 *

D

-10 I
-20
-30
-40

1
..
X201. Percent change in sensitive prices, WPI crude materials excluding foods and feeds, smoothed' (percent)

+4
+2 «
"re

0 £

-2
200

X108. Money balance (M1), 1987 dollars (bil. dol.

190 2

\

180 |
170
+1.5

X136. Percent change in total liquid assets, smoothed1 (percent)

m

+1.0

*
£

+0.5 «5

1 1 1 1 1 m m 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 M i n 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 iii 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ill 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 n 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 \\mil 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1947

1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

NOTE: Current data for these series are shown on page vii.
^Revised
reference turning dates. (See May 1975 BCD, page vii.)
1
Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.




VI

TABLE I. CURRENT DATA FOR THE NEW COMPOSITE INDEX AND SELECTED COMPONENTS

New composite
index of 12
leading
indicators,
original trend

Year
and
month

(1967=100)

New composite
index of 12
leading
indicators,
reverse trend
adjusted1

(1967=100)

X213. New
orders, consumer
goods and
materials, 1967
dollars

10D. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment, 1967
dollars

(Mil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

X170D. Net
change in
inventories on
hand and on
order, 1967
dollars,
smoothed2

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

X201. Percent
change in
sensitive prices,
WPI crude
materials excluding foods
and feeds,
smoothed2

(Percent)

X 108. Money
balance (M1)
1967 dollars 3

(Bil.dol.)

X 136. Percent
change in
total liquid
assets,
smoothed2

(Percent)

1973
125.0
125.7
124.5

152.4
153.6
152.7

29,039
29,531
29,694

9.13
9.06
9.37

10.70
10.84
11.32

1.12
0.95
0.90

200.8
200.4
198.8

|H>1.12
1.07
0.99

124.1
124.9
D126.6

152.6
154.1
156.7

29,643
30,235
29,733

9.11
9.40
10.03

11.51
13.25
17.44

1.16
1.59
2.08

198.4
199.5
200.6

0.99
1.06
1.10

July
August
September

126.5
123.9
122.3

E>157.0
154-3
152.8

30,391
30,032
29,612

10.08
9.75
9.70

E>21.33
19.97
16.81

2.16
1.85
1.90

200.5
197.0
196.3

1.06
0.98
0.89

October
November
December

122.4
121.7
119.8

153.2
152.9
150.9

1)30,628
29,971
28,571

E)10.62
10.42
9.95

16.38
17.79
18.97

2.36
3.27
3.88

195.3
195.8
196.0

0.79
0.71
0.72

117.5
117.7
119.6

148.5
149.1
152.0

27,943
27,752
30,582

9.72
10.02
9.76

13.47
6.35
0.65

4.06
4-42
4-94

193.4
192.8
192.4

0.82
0.89
rO.88

117.4
116.5
rl!3.7

149.7
149.0
r!45.8

28,029
28,787
28,299

10.14
10.39
9.79

-2.77
-2.70
0.30

H>5-46
4.02
1.61

192.1
190.8
190.7

rO.91
rO.93
rO.90

July
August
September

112.9
108.8
104.3

145.3
r!40.4
135.0

28,577
28,548
27,240

10.40
9.15
9.26

2.98
-2.06
-9.61

0.95
1.70
2.26

189.4
187.3
185.3

rO.82
0.68
rO.53

October
November
December

rlOO.3
96.8
r94-6

130.1
126.0
r!23.6

26,354
24,700
21,392

8.38
7.87
8.44

-12.32
-11.77
-12.61

1.29
0.18
-0.53

184.2
183.8
182.9

rO.45
rO.45
rO.46

January
February
March

r90.6
r90.2
r91.2

rl!8.7
rl!8.5
r!20.2

20,576
20,913
20,494

7.14
7.07
7.02

-18.09
-23.12
r-27.73

-1.39.
-1.70
-1.28

180.3
180.2
181.3

rO.47
rO.52
rO.62

April
May
June

r93.9
4
95.9

r!24.0
4127.2

r22,36l
p22,600

r7.85
p7.86

P-35.89
(NA)

-0.41
0.45

180.9
p!82.0

rO.70
pO.77

January
February
March
April
May .
June

. .

...

1974
January
February
March
April
May
June

1975

July
August
September
October
November
December

NOTE: Graphs of these series are shown on pages v and vi. Historical data were shown in the May 1975 BCD (pages xx-xxii).
The old index of 12 leading indicators is shown on page 112. Series are seasonally adjusted. Current high values are indicated
by JJ>. The "r" indicates revised? "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; and "NA", not available.
"-Reverse trend adjusted index contains the same trend as the deflated coincident index (series 825).
2
Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1,2,2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.
aSeries X108 reached its current high value (200.9) in December 1972.
4Excludes series 12 and X170D for which data are not yet available.




Vll

TABLE II. SPECIFIC PEAKS AND TROUGHS FOR THE NEW COMPOSITE INDEX AND ITS COMPONENTS

Specific dates are listed under the reference cycle dates to which they correspond. Numbers in parentheses indicate leads (-) or lags (+) of specific dates in relation to reference dates.
Specific peak dates corresponding to contractions beginning in—
Series
December 1969
New composite index of 12 leaders, original trend
New composite index of 12 leaders, reverse trend adjusted
1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing . .
3 Layoff rate manufacturing (inverted)
12. Index of net business formation
X21 3. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 1967 dollars . .
10D. Contracts and orders for plant and equip., 1967 dollars . . .
29. Index of new building permits, private housing units . . .
X170D. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1967
dollars, smoothed1
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting
slower deliveries
X201. Percent change in sensitive prices, WPI crude materials
excluding foods and feeds, smoothed1
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
X108 Money balance (M1) 1967 dollars
X136. Percent change in total liquid assets, smoothed1

April 1960

August 1957

Feb.

69 (-11)
69 (-11)
68 (-22)
69 (-8)
69 (-10)
69 (-2)
69 (-11)
69 (-10)

59 (-12)
59 (-11)
Apr. 59 (-12)
May 59 (-11)
Apr. 59 (-12)
Feb. 59 (-14)
Mar.
59 (-13)
Nov.
58 (-17)

55 (-23)
55 (-23)
Nov.
55 (-21)
Nov.
55 (-21)
June 55 (-26)
July 55 (-25)
Nov.
56 (-9)
Feb. 55 (-30)

Aug.

69

Apr.

59 (-12)

Sep.

Oct.

59

Oct. 55 (-22)

July 52 (-12)

Oct.

55 (-23)
July 56 (-13)
Apr. 56 (-16)
Apr. 57 (-4)

53 (-4)
53 (-6)
May 53 (-2)
May 53 (-2)

47 (-14)
June 48
(-5)
May 46 (-30)
NA

Jan.
Jan.
Feb.
Apr.
Feb.
Oct.
Jan.

June 69

(-4)

(-6)

69 (-3)
68 (-12)
Feb. 69 (-10)
Aug.
68 (-16)
Sep.

Dec.

Apr.

May

(-6)

58 (-17)
July 59 (-9)
July 59 (-9)
July 59 (-9)

Nov.

July 1953

53 (-4)
53 (-4)
Mar. 53 (-4)
Nov.
52 (-8)
Sep.
52 (-10)
Jan. 53 (-6)
Feb.
53 (-5)
Nov.
52 (-8)

November 1948

Sep.

Mar.

Jan.

Sep.

Mar.

Jan.

56 (-11)

Sep.

Feb.

53

(-5)

Mar.

Jan.

Dec.

July
Jan.

June
Apr.
Oct.

48*
48*
47
46
48*
48
48
47

(-10)
(-10)
(-11)
(-28)
(-10)
(-5)
(-7)

(-13)

July 48

(-4)

48

(-1)

Sep.

Specific trough dates corresponding to expansions beginning inSeries

New composite index of 12 leaders, original trend
New composite index of 12 leaders, reverse trend adjusted
1. Average workweek, production workers, manufacturing . .
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted)
12. Index of net business formation
X213. New orders, consumer goods and materials, 1967 dollars . .
10D. Contracts and orders for plant and equip., 1967 dollars. . .
29. Index of new building permits private housing units
X170D. Net change in inventories on hand and on order, 1967
dollars, smoothed1
32. Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting
slower deliveries
X201. Percent change in sensitive prices, WPI crude materials
excluding foods and feeds, smoothed1
19. Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks
X108. Money balance (M1), 1967 dollars
X136 Percent change in total liquid assets smoothed1

70 (-1)
70 (-8)
Sep.
70 (-2)
Oct. 70
(-1)
Aug.
70 (-3)
Nov.
70
(0)
Oct. 70
(-1)
Jan. 70 (-10)
Oct.

Mar.

60 (-2)
60 (-2)
Dec.
60 (-2)
Feb.
61
(0)
Jan. 61 (-1)
Feb. 61
(0)
Nov.
60 (-3)
Dec.
60 (-2)
Dec.

Dec.

(-2)

Feb.

(-2)

58

Dec.

57

Apr.

Nov.

Oct.

Dec.

57
57
58
57

70

(-9)

Feb.

61

Dec.

70

(+1)

Mar.

60 (-11)

70 (-2)
June 70 (-5)
Feb. 70 (-9)
Aug.
69 (-15)

58
58
Apr. 58
Mar.
58
Apr. 58
Jan. 58
Mar.
58
Feb.
58
Feb.

Apr.

Feb.

Sep.

April 1958

February 1961

November 1970

(0)

60 (-10)
60 (-4)
June 60 (-8)
July 60 (-7)

Mar.
Dec.

(0)
(-1)

(0)
(-3)
(-1)
(-2)

(0)

May 1954

53
53
Apr. 54
Jan. 54
Mar.
54
Oct. 53
Mar.
54
Sep.
53

October 1949

(-8)

June 49
June 49
Apr. 49
May 49
July 49
June 49
Apr. 49
Jan. 49

Nov.

(-6)

Nov.

(-6)
(-1)
(-4)
(-2)
(-7)
(-2)

(-4)
(-4)
(-6)
(-5)

(-3)
(-4)
(-6)
(-9)

Nov.

53

(-6)

June 49

(-4)

Dec.

53

(-5)

Mar.

(-5)

Nov.

53
53
Oct. 53
Dec.
53

(-6)

(-4)

Sep.

(-8)

June 49
(-4)
June 49
(-4)
Aug.
48 (-14)
NA

(-1)
(-4)

(-7)
(-5)

49

(-4)
(-7)

NOTE: Specific peaks and troughs mark the dates when individual series reach their cyclical turning points, whereas reference peak and trough dates indicate the cyclical turning points in
business activity as a whole. This table is based on the revised reference turning dates. (See May 1975 BCD, page vii.)
NA = Not available. The data necessary to determine a turning point are not available.
*Not necessarily the peak but the high for the available data.
Series is a weighted 4-term moving average (with weights 1, 2, 2,1) placed at the terminal month of the span.




Vlll

METHOD OF PRESENTATION
THIS REPORT is organized into six major
subject sections, as follows:
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.

National Income and Product
Cyclical Indicators
Anticipations and Intentions
Other Key Indicators
Analytical Measures
International Comparisons

Each of these sections is described briefly
in this introduction. Data for each of the
above sections are shown both in Part I
(charts) and in Part II (tables) of the report. Most charts begin with 1953 (except
in section C where they begin with 1957);
the tables contain data for only the last
few years. Except for section F, the charts
contain shading which indicates periods of
recession in general business activity.
In addition to the charts and tables described above, each issue contains a summary table which shows the current behavior of many of the series, and several
appendixes which present historical data,
series descriptions, seasonal adjustment
factors, and measures of variability. An
index appears at the back of each issue.
It should be noted that the series numbers
used are for identification purposes only
and do not reflect relationships or order.

Seasonal Adjustments
Adjustments for average seasonal fluctuations are often necessary to bring out the
underlying trends of time series. Such adjustments allow for the effects of repetitive
intrayear variations resulting primarily
from normal differences in weather conditions and from various institutional arrangements. Variations attributable to
holidays are usually accounted for by the
seasonal adjustment process; however, a
separate holiday adjustment is occasionally required for holidays with variable
dates, such as Easter. An additional adjustment is sometimes necessary for
series which contain considerable variation due to the number of working or
trading days in each month. As used in
this report, the term "seasonal adjustment"
includes trading-day and holiday adjustments where they have been made.
Most of the series in this report are presented in seasonally adjusted form and,
in most cases, these are the official figures
released by the source agencies. However,
for the special purposes of this report, a
number of series not ordinarily published
in seasonally adjusted form are shown
here on a seasonally adjusted basis.

MOD Moving Averages
Month-to-month changes in a series are
often dominated by erratic movements.
MCD (months for cyclical dominance) is
an estimate of the appropriate span over
which to observe cyclical movements in a
monthly series. (See appendix A.) It is the
smallest span of months for which the
average change in the cyclical factor is
greater than that in the irregular factor.
The more erratic a series is, the larger the
MCD will be; thus, MCD is 1 for the



smoothest series and 6 for the most
erratic. MCD moving averages (that is,
moving averages of the period equal to
MCD) tend to have about the same degree
of smoothness for all series. Thus, a 5-term
moving average of a series with an MCD
of 5 will show its cyclical movements
about as clearly as the seasonally adjusted data for a series with an MCD of 1.
The charts for sections B and D include
centered MCD moving averages for all
series with an MCD greater than 4. The
seasonally adjusted data are also plotted
to indicate their variation about the moving averages and to provide observations
for the most recent months.

Reference Turning Dates
The historical business cycle turning dates
used in this report are those designated
by the National Bureau of Economic Research,, Inc. (NBER). They mark the approximate dates when, according to the
NBER,
aggregate
economic
activity
reached its cyclical high or low levels. As
a matter of general practice, neither new
reference turning dates nor the shading
for recessions will be entered on the charts
until after both the new reference peak
and the new reference trough bounding
the shaded area have been designated.
This policy is followed because of the
conceptual and empirical difficulties of
designating a current recession and the
practical difficulties of terminating the
shading of a current recession without
including part of a new expansion.
SECTION A

NATIONAL
INCOME AND
PRODUCT
The national income and product accounts,
compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), summarize both receipts
and final expenditures for the personal,
business, foreign, and government sectors
of the economy and provide useful measures of total economic activity. The total
of the final expenditures (including additions to business inventories), which
equals the total of the receipts (mainly
incomes), is known as gross national
product (GNP). GNP is defined as the
total market value of the final output of
goods and services produced by the Nation's economy. It is the most comprehensive single measure of aggregate economic output.

cial services received by them as income
in kind. The total purchase cost is covered,
including sales taxes. Home purchases are
excluded, but the estimated rental value
of owner-occupied homes is included.
Gross private domestic investment combines gross fixed investment and net
changes in business inventories. Fixed investment consists of producers' durable
equipment and private (as opposed to
government) structures, including owneroccupied residential units. The estimates
are gross in the sense that there is no
deduction for capital consumption. The
inventory component measures the change
in the physical volume of inventories
valued at current replacement cost.
Net exports of goods and services measures the excess of exports over imports.
Exports include receipts from domestic
output sold abroad, transportation, travel,
other services, fees and royalties and income on investments in foreign areas.
Imports include purchases of foreign
goods, payments for transportation, travel
and other services, military expenditures
as well as payments of income on foreign
investments in the United States. More
detail on U.S. balance of payments is
provided in section D.
Government purchases of goods and serv
ices includes general government expenditures for compensation of employees, net
purchases from business and from abroad,
payments to private nonprofit institutions
for research and development, and the
gross fixed investment of government enterprises. Not included are current outlays
of government enterprises, acquisitions of
land, transfer payments, subsidies, loans,
and interest payments to domestic creditors.
A breakdown of the goods portion of GNP,
covering durable and nondurable goods
and both final sales and changes in business inventories, is also included in section A. Other major aggregates taken from
the national income and product accounts
are described below.
National income is the total earnings arising from the current production of goods
and services and accruing to the labor and
property employed in production. The components of national income are compensation of employees, proprietors' income,
rental income of persons, corporate profits
and the inventory valuation adjustment,
and net interest.

Gross national product consists of four
major components: (1) Personal consumption expenditures, (2) gross private domestic investment, (3) net exports of goods
and services, and (4) government purchases of goods and services.

Personal income measures the current income of individuals, owners of unincorporated businesses, nonprofit institutions,
private trust funds, and private health and
welfare funds. It consists of wage and salary disbursements, other labor income,
proprietors' income, rental income of persons, dividends, personal interest income,
and transfer payments to persons, less
personal contributions for social insurance.

Personal consumption expenditures is the
market value of goods (durable and nondurable) and services purchased by individuals and nonprofit institutions and the
value of food, clothing, housing, and finan-

Disposable personal income is the personal
income available for spending or saving.
It consists of personal income less personal taxes and other nontax payments
to general government.

Gross saving represents the difference
between income and spending during an
accounting period. It is the total of personal saving, undistributed corporate profits,
corporate inventory valuation adjustment,
the excess of wage accruals over disbursements (usually negligible), government
surplus or deficit, and capital consumption allowances.
Most of the series in this section are on
a current-dollar basis, but some are shown
on a constant (1958) dollar basis so that
the effects of price changes are eliminated. The implicit price deflator (computed by dividing the current-dollar data
by the constant-dollar data) for total GNP
is also shown.
SECTION B

CYCLICAL
INDICATORS
The business cycle is generally described
as consisting of alternating periods of expansion and contraction in aggregate economic activity; that is, the complex of activities represented by such concepts as
total production, employment, income,
consumption, trade, and the flow of funds.
Although a recurrent pattern has been
characteristic of American economic history, many economists do not consider it
inevitable.
One of the techniques developed in business cycle research is widely used as a

tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. This is the cyclical
indicators concept, which singles out certain economic time series as being leaders, coinciders, or laggers in relation to
movements in aggregate economic activity. The NBER has, since 1938, maintained
a list of such indicators and has periodically subjected the list to extensive review. Their most recent (1966) list of 73
cyclical indicators is the basis for this
section of BCD. These indicators were
selected primarily for their cyclical behavior, but they have also proven useful
in forecasting, measuring, and interpreting other short-term fluctuations in aggregate economic activity.
The NBER employs a dual classification
scheme which groups the indicators by
cyclical timing and by economic process,
and this report uses the same classification groupings. The diagram below summarizes the cross-classification system
used in this section. The 79 cyclical indicators are presented with economic process as the principal basis of classification
and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The major processes are divided into minor
processes which exhibit rather distinct differences in cyclical timing. The timing
classification takes into account a series'
historical record of timing at business
cycle peaks and troughs. Leading indicators are those which usually reach peaks or
troughs before the corresponding turns in
aggregate economic activity; roughly coincident indicators are direct measures of
aggregate economic activity or move roughly together with it; lagging indicators
usually reach their turning points after the
turns in aggregate economic activity.

The NBER has also specified a "short list"
of indicators. This more selective and substantially unduplicated group of principal
indicators is drawn from the full list and
provides a convenient summary of the
current situation. The short list consists
of 26 series: 12 leading, eight roughly coincident, and six lagging. Only five of these
are quarterly series; the rest are monthly.
The short list is classified only by timing
and is shown separately in chart B8.
Included in this section are a number of
composite indexes which provide simple
summary measures of the average behavior
of selected groups of indicators. Each component of an index is weighted according
to its value in forecasting or identifying
short-term movements in aggregate economic activity. The components are standardized so that each has, aside from its
weight, an equal opportunity to influence
the index. Each index is standardized so
that its average month-to-month percent
change is 1 (without regard to sign).
The composite indexes presented in this
report are based on groups of indicators
selected by timing. Thus, there is an index
of leading indicators, another of coincident
indicators, and a third of lagging indicators. In addition, there are five indexes
based on leading indicators which have
been grouped by economic process. These
indexes indicate the underlying cyclical
trends of each group of indicators and the
relative magnitude of their short-term
changes. The index of 12 leading indicators has been "reverse trend adjusted" so
that its long-run trend parallels that of
the coincident index. This facilitates comparisons among the leading, coincident,

Cross-Classification of Cyclical Indicators by
Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
Economic
Process

|. EMPLOYMENT

AND
UNEMPLOYMENT
(13 series)

||. PRODUCTION,
INCOME,
CONSUMPTION,
AND TRADE
(9 series)

FIXED CAPITAL
INVESTMENT
(14 series)

Cyclical
Timing

LEADING INDICATORS
(40 series)

Job vacancies '
(1 series)
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS
(26 series)

$$M&,$$$&y i

Long-duration
unemployment
(1 series) ,
i .'
LAGGING INDICATORS
(13 series)




IV. INVENTORIES

AND
INVENTORY
INVESTMENT
(9 series)

V. PRICES, COSTS,
AND PROFITS
(14 series)

VI.

MONEY
AND CREDIT
(20 series)

and lagging indexes and tends to shorten
the leads of the leading index at business
cycle peaks while lengthening them at
troughs; it also reduces the variability of
the leads and lags.
SECTION C

ANTICIPATIONS
AND
INTENTIONS
Most businessmen and many individual
consumers have some type of plans as to
their major economic activities in the near
future. Information on these plans is regarded as a valuable aid to economic forecasting either directly or as an indication
of the state of confidence concerning the
economic outlook. In recent years, much
progress has been made in compiling such
information, and a number of surveys by
various organizations and government
agencies ascertain anticipations and intentions of businessmen and consumers. The
results of some of these surveys, expressed
as time series, are presented in this section of the report.
The business analyst who uses these
series should be aware of their limitations.
These data reflect only the respondents1
anticipations (what they expect others to
do) or intentions (what they plan to do),
not firm commitments. Among both businessmen and consumers, some responses
may not be very reliable; that is, the
plans may be conjectural or the respondent may make little effort to reply accurately to the survey questions. Also, many
plans are subject to modification or even
complete abandonment due to unforeseen and uncontrollable developments. In
some cases, the anticipations (or intentions) may have a systematic bias; for
example, the anticipations (or intentions)
data may tend to be lower than the subsequent actual data under certain economic
conditions and higher under other conditions. Sometimes they merely project what
has already occurred and hence appear to
lag behind actual changes. Actual data are
included in this section to indicate their
historical relationship to the anticipations
and intentions. Some of the series are diffusion indexes, a concept explained in the
description for section E.

OTHER KEY
INDICATORS
Many economic series are available which,
although not included in the three main
sections of the report, are nevertheless
important for an overall view of the economy. This section presents a number of
such series, though by no means a com


prehensive selection. In general, these
series reflect processes which are not
direct measures of economic activity but
which do have a significant bearing on
business conditions.
The foreign trade and payments series
include data on imports and exports and
their balance, export orders, and the balance of payments. Many of the components of the balance-of-payments accounts
are shown. Some are charted in a manner
which emphasizes the balance between
receipts and expenditures for each component; for example, comparisons of exports of goods and services with imports
of goods and services, and income on
U.S. investments abroad with payments on
foreign investments in the United States.
In addition, balances are shown for U.S.
Government grants and capital transactions and for capital transactions of the
private sector (banks and U.S. residents
other than banks). Finally, cumulative
changes are shown for other components;
for example, U.S. liquid liabilities to all
foreigners and U.S. official reserve assets.
The Federal Government activities series
include Federal receipts and expenditures,
and their balance, and selected defense
activities. The receipts and expenditures
data are from the national income and
product accounts. The defense series are
only a few of the many available. For a
more comprehensive picture of defense activities, see Defense Indicators, a monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis publication.
Three other groups of series are included
in this section. The price movements
series consist of consumer and wholesale
price indexes and their major components.
The series on wages and productivity include measures of hourly earnings and
output per man-hour and also rates of
change for most of these measures. The
final group of series measures the civilian
labor force and its major components, including unemployment rates for selected
segments of the labor force.
SECTION E

ANALYTICAL
MEASURES
This section begins by comparing gross
national product in constant dollars with
a measure of potential GNP. In effect,
these two series reflect the relationship
between the economy's productive capacity and total demand, the excess of potential over actual GNP indicating the degree
to which potentially productive resources
are not fully utilized. The measure of potential GNP, developed by the Council of
Economic Advisers in the early 1960's,
takes into account increases in both available man-hours and output per man-hour.
The NBER list of cyclical indicators includes some series which measure the relationship between different economic varia-

bles (for example, the series on labor cost
per unit of output). There are, however,
additional analytical ratios which have
proven useful in evaluating business conditions and prospects. A number of such
ratios are shown in the second part of
this section.
The third part presents a selection of
diffusion indexes. Many series in this report are aggregates compiled from a number of components. A diffusion index is a
summary measure expressing, for a particular aggregate, the percentage of components rising over a given timespan (half
of the unchanged components are considered rising). Cyclical changes in diffusion
indexes tend to lead those of the corresponding aggregates. Since diffusion indexes are highly erratic, long-term (6- or
9-month span) indexes are used to indicate underlying trends and short-term (1month span) indexes are used to show
recent developments. Most of the indexes
are constructed from components of series
shown in section B, and these indexes
have the same identification numbers as
the corresponding aggregates. The diffusion indexes are classified by the cyclical
timing of the aggregates to which they
relate. Recent data and directions of
change for many of the components are
shown in table E4.
The final part (E5) presents, in chart
form, rates of change for a selected
group of economic series. Percent changes
are shown for 1- and 3-month spans or
for 1-quarter spans.
SECTION F

Lit.

INTERNATIONAL
COMPARISONS

Because this report is designed as an aid
to the analysis of U.S. business conditions,
all previous sections are based on data
,/vhich relate directly to that purpose. But
many business analysts examine economic
developments in other important countries
with a view to their impact on the United
States. This section is provided to facilitate a quick review of basic economic conditions in six of the nations with which
we have important trade relationships.
Data on consumer prices, industrial production, and stock prices are shown for
Canada, the United Kingdom, France, West
Germany, Japan, and Italy and are com
pared with the corresponding U.S. series.
Also included is an industrial production
index for the European countries in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development. The industrial production series provide a comprehensive measure of output and the consumer price
indexes measure an important sector of
prices, while stock prices tend to be important as leading indicators. In this section, the U.S. business cycle shading has
been omitted from the charts.

HOW TO READ CHARTS

Peak (P) of cycle indicates end
of expansion and beginning of
Recession (shaded areas) as
designated by NBER.

Basic Data

Series numbers are for identification only and do not reflect
series relationships or order.

Solid line indicates monthly data.
(Data may be actual monthly
figures or MCD moving averages.*)

Trough (T) of cycle indicates end
of recession and beginning of
Expansion as designated by
NBER.
Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are plotted.
("6" - June)
•g Roman number indicates latest
^/quarter for which data are
/
plotted. ("IV" = fourth quarter)
Dotted line indicates anticipated
data.

Broken line indicates actual
monthly data for series where an
MCD moving average* is plotted.

Parallel lines indicate a break in
continuity (data not available,
changes in series definitions, extreme values, etc.).
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data.

Various scales are used to highlight the patterns of the individual
series. "Scale A" is an arithmetic
scale, "scale L-l" is a logarithmic scale with 1 cycle in a given
distance, "scale L-2" is a logarithmic scale with 2 cycles in
that distance, etc. The scales
should be carefully noted because
they show whether the plotted
lines for various series are directly comparable.

Scale shows percent of components rising.
Solid line indicates monthly data
over 6- or 9-month spans.
Broken line indicates monthly
data over 1-month spans.
Solid line with plotting points indicates quarterly data over various spans.
*Many of the more irregular
series are shown in terms of their
MCD moving averages as well as
their actual monthly data. In such
cases, the 4-, 5-, or 6-term moving averages are plotted P/2, 2,
or 21/2 months, respectively, behind the actual data. See appendix A for a description of MCD
moving averages.

Arabic number indicates latest
month for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("6" =
June)
Roman number indicates latest
quarter for which data are used
in computing the indexes. ("I" =
first quarter)
Broken line with plotting points
indicates quarterly data over various spans.
NOTE: Some of the charts of
anticipations and intentions data
(section C) and balance of payments data (section D) do not
conform to the above method of
presentation. Deviations are adequately explained as they occur.

HOW TO LOCATE A SERIES
1. See ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE in the
back of the report where series are arranged alphabetically according
to subject matter and key words and phrases of the series titles, or



2. See TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES where series are listed in
numerical order according to series numbers within each of the
Digest's six sections.

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators
Basic data1
Series title

Unit
of
measure

Percent change

Average
4th Q
1972

1973

1974

1973

1stQ
1974

2dQ

3dQ

4th Q

IstQ

1974

1974

1974

1975

2dQ
to
3dQ

3dQ
to
4th Q

1974

1974

o5

4th Q
to
1stQ
1975

E
^
a

%

8

A. NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
A1. Gross National Product
200.
205.
210.
215.
217.

GNP in current dollars
GNP in 1958 dollars
Implicit price deflator
Per capita GNP in current dollars
Per capita GNP in 1958 dollars

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
1958=100...
Ann. rate, dol. . . .
do

1158.0 1294.9 1397.4 1344.0 1358.8 1383.8 1416.3 1430.9 1416.6
792.5 839.2 821.2
845.7 830.5
827.1 823.1
804.0 780.0
154.3
158.9
146.1
170.2
163.6
167.3
172.1
1S1.6
178.0
5/544 6/154 6/592 6/369 6/428 6/536 6/676 6/730 6/652
3/794 3/988 3/874 4/007 3/929 3/907 3/880 3/782 3/663

2.3
-0.5

2.9
2.1
-0.7

1.0
-2.3

3.4
0.8
-2.5

-1.0
-3.0

2.0
-1.2
-3.1

200
205
210
215
217

A2. National and Personal Income
220.
222
224.
225.
226.

National income, current dollars
Personal income current dollars
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Disposable personal income, 1958 dollars .
Per capita disposable personal income,
current dollars
227. Per capita disposable pers. income 1958 dol

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do ...
do . .

946.5 1065.6 1142.5 1106.3 1118.8 1130.2 1155.5 1165.4 1150.7
944.9 1055.0 1150.5 1099.3 1112.5 1134.6 1168.2 1186.9 1193.4
802.5 903.7
979.7 939.4 950.6 966.5 993.1 1008.8 1015.5
580.5 619.6
602.8 622.9
610.3
603.5 602.9 594.8 591,0

2.2
3.0
2.8
-0.1

Ann. rate, dol. . . . 3/843
2/779
do

4/295
2/945

4/623
2/845

4/452
2/952

4/497
2/887

4/565
2/850

4/681
2/842

4/745
2/798

4/766
2/775

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
do
... do
.. do
do .. .

729.0
527.3
118.4

805.2
552.1
130.3

876.7
539.5
127.5

823.9
546.3
124.3

840.6
539.7
123.9

869.1
542.7
129.5

901.3
547.2
136.1

895.8
528.2
120.7

913.2
531.5
124.9

78.8
39.7

86.9
43.4

90.0
37.5

86.3
38.0

88.1
35.8

91.5
38.0

92.5
43.6

88.1
32.6

89.6
35.3

299.7
310.9

338.0
336.9

380.2
369.0

352.1
347.4

364.4
352.4

375.8
363.8

389.0
376.2

391.7
383.5

398.8
389.5

Gross private domestic investment, total
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do ..
Fixed investment, total nonresidential
Fixed investment, nonresidential structures . . .
. do
Fixed investment, producers' durable equip.
do
Fixed investment, residential structures
do
Change in business inventories, total2
do

179.3
116.8

209.4
136.8

209.4
149.2

224.5
141.9

210.5
145.2

211.8
149.4

205.8
150.9

209.4
151.2

163.1
146.9

-2.8

41.1
75.7
54.0

47.0
89.8
57.2
15.4

52.0
97.1
46.0
14.2

49.3
92.6
53.6
28.9

51.3
93.9
48.4
16.9

52.2
97.2
48.8
13.5

51.0
99.9
46.2

53.7
97.5
40.4
17.8

52.8
94.2
35.3

-2.3

9.3
113.6
104.3

11.3

-1.5

-3.1

131.2
119.9

138.5
140.0

143.6
146.7

1.9
147.5
145.7

8.8
142.2
133.4

296.3
111.5

304.4
114.3

312.3
117.2

323.8
124.5

331.6
126.5

2.5
-0.3

0.9
1.6
1.6
-1.3

1.4
-1.5

-1.3

0.5
0.7
-0.6

0.5
-0.8

220
222
224
225
226
227

A3. Personal Consumption Expenditures
230.
231.
232.
233.
234.
236.
237.

Total, current dollars
Total 1958 dollars
Durable goods, current dollars
Durable goods, exc. autos, current dollars
Automobiles, current dollars
Nondurable goods, current dollars
Services, current dollars

3.7
0.8
5.1
1.1
14.7

3.5
3.4

-0.6
-3.5

-11.3
-4.6

-25.2
0.7
1.9

1.9
0.6
3.5
1.7
8.3
1.8
1.6

230
231
232
233
234
236
237

-22.1

240
241
242
243
244
245

A4. Gross Private Domestic Investment
240.
241.
242.
243.
244.
245.

8.5

8.7

-19.2

1.0

1.7
0.2
5.3
-2.4

-2.8
-1.7
-3,4

-5.3
-4.8

-12.6
9.1

-12.6
-37.0

-1.6

5.0
2.7

2.8

A5. Foreign Trade
250. Net exports of goods and services2
252. Exports
253. Imports

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do

-6.0
72.4
78.4

3.9
100.4
96.4

2.1
140.2
138.1

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
do

255.7
104.9

276.4
106.6

309.2
116.9

286.4
108.4

74.8

74.4

78.7

75.3

75.8

76.6

78.4

84.0

84.7

150.8

169.8

192.3

177.9

184.8

190.1

195.1

199.3

205.1

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
do

214.3
7.1
321.0
1.4

240.9
9.4
366.5
6.0

249.2
7.7
406.9
6.5

240.6

242.3
8.7
392.8
8.2

248.5

246.2
418.6

252.9
-13.4
433.2

15.4

259.8
5.7
413.2
3.0

-0.5

-5.7

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
do
do

707.1

786.0

855.8

75.9
25.9
92.2
45.6

96.1
26.1

93.0
26.5

814.8
103.2

105.1
52.3

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do

173.4
52.6

3.7
4.8

-0.7

6.9
-3.6
-8.4

250
252
253

A6. Government Purchases of Goods
and Services
260.
262.
264.
266.

Total
Federal
National defense
State and local

270.
271.
274.
275.

Final sales, durable goods .
Change in business inventories, dur. goods2
Final sales, nondurable goods
Change in bus. inventories, nondur. goods2

2.6
2.5
2.3
2.6

3.7
6.2
7.1
2.2

2.4
1.6
0.8
2.9

260
262
264
266

2.7
-31.7
3.5

270
271
274
275

A7. Final Sales and Inventories

14.8

384.1
14.1

-1.8

402.9

18.3

4.5
7.5
2.6
-12.4

-5.2
12.6

1.3
-3.5

-5.2

A8. National Income Components
280.
282.
284.
286.
288.

Compensation of employees
Proprietors' income
Rental income of persons
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adj. .
Net interest

828.8

848.3

868.2

877.7

875.6

26.4

98.4
26.4

89.9
26.3

92.1
26.6

91.6
26.8

105.6

106.4

107.7

105.6

105.8

103.4

61.6

55.5

57.5

60.1

62.8

65.9

84.9
27.0
94.3
68.9

214.4

207.5

231.7

224.5

206.3

196.4

202.9

166.6

74.4

77.0

89.3

84.4

71.5

65.5

86.5

75.9

18.1

21.5

122.9
-24.6

125.2
-56.0

793.1

791.8
-11.7

2.3
2.4
1.1
0.2
4.5

1.1
-0.5

0.8
-2.3

4.9

-0.2
-7.3

0.7
-8.8

4.6

280
282
264
286
288

A9. Saving
290. Gross saving, total
292. Personal saving
294. Undistributed corporate profits plus
inventory valuation adjustment
296 Capital consumption allowances
298. Government surplus or deficit total2
A10.

do
do
. . do

23.3

25.7

17.3

26.2

23.9

17.1

102.9

110.8
3.5

119.5

113.9
2.3

115.8
0.4

118.6
-1.0

9.9
120.7
0.2

828.4

812.5
8.7

825.7

819.9

818.9
8.2

818.1
5.0

96.5
25.7
32.6

94.1
23.6
38.9

10.9
89.2
20.4
33.6

-5.1

-6.3

-17.9
-12.3

290
292

82.8

18.8

1.8
-24.8

1.9
-31.4

294
296
298

3.3

-4.8
-8.4

32.1

-42.1
1.8
1.2

Real GNP (1958 dollars)

273.
246.
247.
248.
249.
263.

Final sales 1958 dollars
Change in bus. inventories, 1958 dollars2
Fixed investment, nonresidential, 1958 dollars .
Fixed investment, residential struc., 1958 dol. .
Gross auto product, 1958 dollars
Federal Government purchases of goods
and services, 1958 dollars
267. State and local government purchases of
goods and services, 1958 dollars

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
do
do

785.4
7.0
83.7
34.3
39.1

10.8
94.4
32.9
44.2

do

61.0

57.3

do ...

82.1

87.0

26.3

12.4

-0.1
-3.2
-2.5
-8.2
19.3

-5.2

-6.1

-13.6
-13.6

-15.2
-20.5

273
246
247
248
249

0.7

263

1.0

267

-3.1

5.9

20.0
96.0
29.8
41.6

10.6
96.3
26.4
29.2

56.5

56.4

56.3

56.3

56.5

57.0

57.4

89.5

89.3

89.7

89.5

89.4

89.3

90.2

-0.1

-0.1

64.6

18.4

42.1

54.1

66.8

94.7

127.6

12.7

27.9

94.0
24.0
33.6

83,8
17.3
26.7

0.4

0.9

-0.2

-22.6

El. Actual and Potential GNP
207. GNP gap (potential less actual), 1958 dol.2 .... Ann.rate, bil.dol. .




32.9

207

Basic data1
Unit
of
measure

Series title

Percent change

Average
3dQ

4th Q

IstQ

1974

1974

1975

Mar.
1975

Apr.
1975

1973

1974

124.0
153.6
163.4
155.5
138.5
164.4

110.0
141.2
171.2
165.8
136.9
205.1

102.0
120.3
123.2
118.6
118.1

92.6

94.1

85.5

81.3

114.9
133.0
125.0
110.7

116.0
136.7
127.6
111.8

108.9
124.6
122.9
100.1

103.9
111.8
115.8
90.0

89.2

40.7

40.0

40.1

39.7

38.9

38.8

Mar.

Apr.

May

to

1975

Apr.
1975

to
May

3dQ
to
4th Q

4th Q
to
IstQ

1975

1974

1975

Series number 1

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS
B7. Composite Indexes
12 leading indicators:3
N e w index, original trend
.
New index, reverse trend adjusted
Old index, reverse trend adj (810)
820 5 coincident indicators
825 5 coincident indicators deflated
830 6 lagging indicators

.

.

.

LEADING INDICATOR SECTORS
813. Marginal employment adjustments
814. Capital investment commitments
815. Inventory investment and purchasing
81 6. Profitability
817. Sensitive financial flows

1967=100 .
do
do
do
do
do

.
.

.. do
.. do ..
do
do
. . . . do

..

108.7
140.2
176.6
169.2
138.1
213.8

3.0
3.2
3.0
0.5

2.1
2,6
1.3
0.1

-10.6

97.2

90.7

91.2

93.9

95.9

126.6
163.3
165.5
132.2
219.8

119.1
152.3
156.1
124.0
213.6

120.2
151.2
154.0
122.8
210.1

124.0
155.7
154.7
122.0
205.4

127,2
157.8
154.8
121.8
201.4

81.8

83.2

103.7
110.6
114.5

107.4
111.4
114.8
94.3

MA
108.5
113.5
116.0
NA

1.7
3.6
0.7
0.3
5.7

NA
1.0
1.9
1.0
NA

-9.1
-6.1
-8.9
-3.7
-10. b

39.0

39.0

-0.7
-2.2

-0.2
-1.9

-9.7
-7.5
-2.2
-4.3

2.8

-6.7
-5.9
-6.7
-5.7
-6.2
-2.8

-4.9
-4.6

-10.3
-5.8

-10.1

810
820
825
830
813
814
815
816
817

B1 . Employment and Unemployment
LEADING INDICATORS
Marginal Employment Adjustments:
*1. Average workweek, prod, workers, mfg
21. Average weekly overtime hours,
production workers, manufacturing2
2. Accession rate, manufacturing2
*5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance (inverted4)
3. Layoff rate, manufacturing (inverted4)2
ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Job Vacancies:
46 Help-wanted advertising
Comprehensive Employment:
48. Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments ..
*41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
42. Persons engaged in nonagri activities
Comprehensive Unemployment:
*43. Unemployment rate, total (inverted4)2
45. Average weekly insured unemployment
rate (inverted4)2
40. Unemployment rate, married males
(inverted4)2
LAGGING INDICATORS
Long Duration Unemployment:
*44. Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and
over (inverted4)2 .

Hours

0.5

0.0

-1.0

-2.0

1

2.3
3.7

0.0
0.4

0.0

-0.5

-0.6

21
2

517
2.5

496
2.5

5.1
0.3

4.1
0.0

-39.3
-1.2

-0.8

71

71

1.4

0.0

-23.2

-17.4

46

149.64 151.32 151.97 150.70 146.86 145.90 146.15 146.36
76,833 78,337 78,661 78,320 76,768 76,368 76,381 76,443
80/957 82,443 82,902 82,347 80,821 80,584 80,848 80,890

0.2
0.0
0.3

0.1
0.1
0.1

-0.8
-0.4
-0.7

-2.5
-2.0
-1.9

48
41
42

do
Per 100 employ. ..

3.8
4.8

3.2
4.1

3.4
4.3

2.9
3.2

2.3
3.3

2.3
3.5

2.3
3.9

Thousands
Per 100 employ. ..

240
0.9

349
1.5

328
1.2

457
2.4

548
3.2

545
2.8

1967=100.

1?2

106

112

86

71

70

Ann. rate, billion
man-hours
Thousands
do

-0.2

-1.1

0.1

-19.9

5
3

4.9

5.6

5,5

6.6

8.4

8.7

8.9

9.2

-0.2

-0.3

-1.1

-1.8

43

do

2.7

3.5

3.3

4.3

6.0

6.4

6.8

6.9

-0.4

-0.1

-1.0

-1.7

45

do

2.3

2.7

2.7

3.4

4.8

5.2

5.6

5.8

-0.4

-0.2

-0.7

-1.4

40

do

0.9

1.0

1.0

1.2

2.0

2.2

2.6

2.8

-0.4

-0.2

-0.2

-0.8

44

109.8

109.5

109.2

-0.3

-0.3

-2.3
-3.3

-1.0
-3.0
-8.0

200
205
47

Percent

B2. Production, Income, Consumption,
and Trade
ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Comprehensive Production:
*200 GNP in current dollars
*205 GNP in 1958 dollars
*47. Industrial production

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
1967=100

1294.9 1397.4 1416.3 1430.9 1416.6
823.1 804.0 780.0
839.2 821.2
124.8
125.6
125.4
121.3
111.6

Comprehensive Income:
*52 Personal income
53 Wages salaries in mining mfg construction

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
. . do

1055.0 1150.5 1168.2 1186.8 1193.4 1195.7 1202.6 1211.9
247.6 266.2
268.8 257.3
271.3
255.2 255.7 256.0

0.6
0.2

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade:
*56 Manufacturing and trade sales
57 Final sales
*54 Sales of retail stores
59 Sales of retail stores deflated

Bit dot
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
Mil dol
. do

143.90
1279.6
41,943
33,477

161.04 158.54 161.84
NA
1435.8
46,233 45,926 46,495 47,516
30,953 30,577 30,771 31,322

1967=100
Number

103.1
105.5
112.4
114.8
103,0
117.9
102.5
27,443 26,584 26,866 25,321 24,542 24,922 26,506

164.10
1383.2
53,786
31,855

170.44
1407.6
46,530
32,469

167.26
1413.1
45,031
30,466

1.0

0.6

0.8
0.1

-0.9

-4.3

2.1

NA

-1.9

-3.7

1.2
0.6

2.2
1.8

-3.2
-6.2

0.1
6.4

NA
NA

-8.1
-5.8

-2.8
-3.1

12
13

-12.2
-10.7

6
6
10
11
24

1.6

0.4

1.6
2.7
1.6

52
53
56
57
54
59

B3. Fixed Capital Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Formation of Business Enterprises:
*12 Index of net business formation
13 New business incorporations

New Investment Commitments:
Bil. dol
*6. New orders, durable goods industries
1967=100
8. Construction contracts, total value
*10. Contracts and orders for plant, equipment . . . Bil.dol
do
1 1 New capital appropriations manufacturing
do
24 New orders cap goods indus nondefense
Mil. sq. feet
9. Construction contracts, commercial
floor space
and industrial buildings
Ann. rate, thous . .
28. New private housing units started, total
1967=100
*29. New building permits, private housing
ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT INDICATORS
Backlog of Investment Commitments:
96. Unfilled orders, durable goods industries5
97. Backlog of capital appropriations, mfg.5

6




Bil. dol., EOP . . . .
...... do

NA
NA

41.22
184
12.28
10.82
10.32

44.43
171
13.54
14.06
11.53

47.86
178
14.25
16.40
12.14

42.03
159
12.95
12.09
10.82

36.19
141
11.39
10.95

35.49
153
11.44

38.75
189
13.01

39.30
182
13.06

9.86

9.52

10.31

10.37

85.73
2,045
157.1

72.90
1,336

77.50
1,209

57.81
1,001

46.87
995

39.69
985

56.90
986

44.79
1,126

43.4

91.9

81.0

69.5

59.4

58.3

72.1

78.3

23.7

109.86 129.94 135.70 129.94 120.10 120.10 118.23 117.44
50.31 50.10
36.66 50.10
48.50

9.2
23.5
13.7

8.3
0.1

-1.6

0.4

-V.I

-13.9
-11.3
-12.0

0.6

-26.3
-10.9

-9.4
-8.9

-25.4
-17.2
-14.2

-18.9
-14.5

9
28
29

-4.2
-0.4

-7.6
-3.2

96
97

1.4
-3.7

-21.3
14.2

8.6

-0.7

-0.6

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators—Continued
Basic data1
Series title

Unit
of
measure

Average
1973

Percent change
Mar.

1974

3dQ

4th Q

1974

1974

1stQ
1975

Mar.
1975

Apr.
1975

to
May

3dQ
to
4th Q

1975

1974

Apr.

May

to

1975

Apr.
1975

4th Q
to
1stQ
1975

»
|
£
3

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B3. Fixed Capital Investment— Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Investment Expenditures:
*61. Business expend., new plant and equip
69. Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .

do

99.74 111.92 113.99 116.22 114.57
134.71 152.68 152.61 158.33 153.09 150.51 151.83

NA

0.9

NA

2.0

-1.4

61

3.7

-3.3

69

9.1

-37.0
-64.3

245
31

-14

37

B4. Inventories and Inventory Investment
LEADING INDICATORS
Inventory Investment and Purchasing:
245. Change in bus. inventories, all indus.2
*31. Change, mfg. and trade inven. book value2
37. Purchased materials, percent reporting
higher inventories2
20. Change in mfrs.' inventories of materials,
supplies, book value2
26. Buying policy, production materials,
commitments 60 days or longer2®
32. Vendor performance, percent reporting
slower deliveries2®
25. Chg. in unfilled orders, dur. goods indus.2 . . .

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
Percent

15.4
26.9

63

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
Percent

6.4

78
do

Bil. dol

55
13.9

83

8.7
59.2

56
17.7

17.8
52.9

46
11.2

-19.2
-11.4

-22.4

-23.0

NA

32

30

26

31

-12.2

NA

1.5

-6.1

-0.6

62

58

57

54

64

33
-1.92

17
-3.28

17
-3.15

22
-1.87

24
-0.79

1.28

224.00 271.84 258.62 271.84 268.99 268.99 267.08
37.95
46.73 43.41
46.73 47.73 47.73 47.29

NA
NA

-0.7
-0.9

66
1.67

3.20

5
NA

-6.1

75

88

NA

-4

84

2.41

LAGGING INDICATORS
Inventories:
*71. Mfg. and trade inventories, book value5
Bil. dol., EOP ....
65. Mfrs.' inven. of finished goods, book value5 . .
do

14.2
47.8

-1

-6.3

-10
-6.5

-9.7

20

-3

-9

-13

26

2

-31
-5.12

-16
-1.36

32
25

-1.0

71
65

5

1.08

NA
NA

5.1
7.6

2.1

B5. Prices, Costs, and Profits
LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive Commodity Prices:
*23. Industrial materials prices®

1967=100

Stock Prices:
*19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks®

1941-43=10

Profits and Profit Margins:
*16. Corporate profits, after taxes, current dol. ...
18. Corporate profits, after taxes, 1958 dollars . . .
22. Ratio, profits to income originating in
corporate business2
15. Profits (after taxes) per dol. of sales, mfg.2 . . .
*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, mfg
34. Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars
35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
Percent
Cents
1967=100
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
i

173.1

219.0

222.4

194.7

181.2

182.3

186.4

184.2

2.2

107.43

82.84

75.66

69.42

78.81

83.78

84.72

90.10

1.1

85.0
53.1

94.3
58.2

79.5
46.9

62.3
35.9

72.9
50.2
11.2

12.1

13.5

11.1

5.0
106.1
114.5

5.6
116.1
129.0

5.9
118.7
138.6

4.9
120.8
125.5

9.3
3.8
115.8
109.6

79.0

81.3

86.4

74.0

62.5

ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Comprehensive Wholesale Prices:
55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities® . . 1967=100
55c. Chg. in whsle. prices, indus. commod., S/A2 . . Percent
58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods®
1967=100

125.9
0.9
129.2

154.1
1.9
153.8

160.8
2.1
160.2

165.6
0.9
166.1

168.3
0.3
168.0

LAGGING INDICATORS
Unit Labor Costs:
63. Unit labor cost, total private economy
68. Labor cost per unit of gross product,
nonfinancial corporations
*62. Labor cost per unit of output, mfg. . .

do

131.1

146.5

148.5

153.6

157.6

Dollars
1967=100

0.879
121.7

0.978
132.5

0.993
134.7

1.023
138.5

1.043
145.3

147.3

113.7

113.6

112.9

-0.1

-1.2

6.4

-0.6

-12.5

-6.9

23

-8.2

13.5

19

-15.7
-19.4

-21.6
-23.5

16
18

-2.4
-1.0

-1.8
-1.1
-4.1

22
15
17
34
35

1.8
-9.5

-14.4

168.9
0.1
167.8

169.7
0.1
168.7

170.3
0.2
169.5

0.5
0.0
0.5

148.2

149.2

0.6

0.4
0.1
0.5

0.7

3.0

-12.7
-15.5

1.6

3.7

1.1

55
55
58

3.4

2.6

63

3.0
2.8

2.0
4.9

68
62

-1.2

-0.6

B6. Money and Credit
LEADING INDICATORS
Flows of Money and Credit:
85. Change in money supply (Ml)2
102. Change in money supply plus time deposits
at commercial banks (M2)2
103. Change in money supply plus time deposits at
banks and nonbank institutions (M3)2
33 Change in mortgage debt2
1 12 Change in business loans2
*1 13 Change in consumer installment debt2
110. Total private borrowing
Credit Difficulties:
14. Liabilities of business failures (inverted4)®. .
39. Delinquency rate, installment loans (inv.4)2 5 .
ROUGH L Y COINCIDENT INDICA TORS
Bank Reserves:
93. Free reserves (inverted4)2®
Interest Rates:
1 19. Federal funds rate2 ®
114. Treasury bill rate2®
1 16. Corporate bond yields2®
1 15. Treasury bond yields2®
117. Municipal bond yields2®




Ann.rate,percent . .

5.98

4.66

1.00

5.25

2.42

11.01

4.19

11.29

-6.82

7.10

4.25

-2.83

85

8.51

6.99

4.20

6.66

8.36

11.80

7.66

13.32

-4.14

5.66

2.46

1.70

102

do
Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
do

8.50
6.56
6.89
11.91
3.80
13.98
10.31
14.75
48.01 35.75 34.36 23.10
28.04 29.04 36.44
NA
21.00
21.97
26.58
15.18 -23.02 -16.20 -22.40 -22.70
20.08
8.41
14.05
-3.25
-5.24
-2.40
-2.90
NA
177.64 167.65 164.09 142.09 89.20

2.84

3.09

3.42

-6.20

103
33
112
113
110

Mil. dol

Percent, EOP

191.55 254.43 201.03 298.03 373.08 343.35 372.08
2.27
2.80
2.63
2.80
2. 94
2.9U
NA

Mil. dol

-1,389 -1,797 -2,982

do

Percent

do
do
do
do

8.74
7.03
7.89
6.31
5.19

10.51
7.87
9.42
6.98
6.17

12.09
8.28

10.31
7.27
6.72

-959

9.29
7.33
9.66
6.97
6.74

-60

6.30
5.87
9.16
6.70
6.65

167

5.54
5.54
9.48
6.77
6.74

17

5.49
5.69
9.81
7.05
6,95

NA
NA

-42

5.22
5.32
9.76
7.03
6.97

-2.07
7.40
2.34

-8.4

NA

150

-0.05
0.15
0.33
0.28
0.21

NA -11.26
4.94
-0.30 •11.40 ^•38.20
NA •17.30
0.85
-13.4 -37.2
NA
NA

-48.3
-0.17

59 -2,023
-0.27
-0.37
-0.05
-0.02

-2.80
-0.95
-0.65
-0.30

0.02

0.02

-25.2
-Q.Ik

14
39

-899

93

-2.99
-1.46
-0.50
-0.27
-0.09

119
114
116
115
117

7

1

Table 1. Summary of Recent Data and Current Changes for Principal Indicators-Continued
Basic data1

Percent change

1973

1974

4th Q

1974

1974

1stQ
1975

Mar.
1975

Apr.
1975

1stQ
1975

-0.4
-1.7

66
72

4th Q
to

Mar.

Apr.

May

to

1975

Apr.
1975

to
May

3dQ
to
4th Q

1975

1974

-0.2
-1.4

-1,5

7.47

-0.43

-0.03

9.16

NA

NA

-0.99
-0.76
NA

-2.02
-1.70
NA

109
67
118

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

440
5.7
7.4
-10.7
0.4

854
1.5
-0.3
-6.8
-8.0

500
502
506
508
512

Average
3dQ

Series number

Series title

Unit
of
measure

B. CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Con.
B6. Money and Credit-Con.
LAGGING INDICATORS
Outstanding Debt:
Bil.dol., EOF ....
66. Consumer installment debt5
*72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding . Bil dol
Interest Rates:
Percent
109. Average prime rate charged by banks2©
*67. Bank rates on short-term business loans2®. . . . . . . . . do
do
118 Mortgage yields residential2^^

144.52 152.93 153.74 152.93 152.33 152.33 152.09
NA
106.08 125.35 129.49 133.40 131.08 129.03 127.16 125.27
8.02
8.30
8.19

10.80
11.28
9.55

11.99
12.40
10.18

11.00
11.64
NA

8.98
9.94
8.84

8.69

696
8/972
3/369
179
8/277

1/380
8/716
3/647
178
7/336

7.93

7.50

NA

NA

-0.5

3.0

D. OTHER KEY INDICATORS
D1. Foreign Trade
500
502.
506.
508
512.

Merchandise trade balance2
Exports, excluding military aid
Export orders, dur. goods exc. motor vehicles ,
Export orders nonelectrical machinery
General imports

Mil dol
. . . . do
do
1967=100
Mil. dol

....

119
5/905
2/343
189
5/786

-190

-598

-158

8/166
3/186
207
8/357

8/361
3/144
215
8/959

8/836
3/378
192
8/995

557
8/570
3/193
194
8/013

NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

-823
-1.7

-12.4
9.0
9.2

D2. U.S. Balance of Payments
250.
515.
517.
519.
521 .
522.

Balance on goods and services2
Bal. on goods, services, and remittances2
Balance on current account2
Balance on curr. acct. and long-term capital2 .
Net liquidity balance2
Official reserve transactions balance2

Mil. dol

do
do
do
do
do

4/177
568
84

3/574
462

-261
919 3/344
-718
480 2/886
-1/526
-169
2/148
-245 -2/732 -3/600 -6/573
-475
-1/913 -4,761 -3/909 -7/725 3/071
-1/328 -2/094
119 -4/855 -3/223
-903

2/425
1/180
1/198
2/406
2/317
1/357
-2/973 6/098
-3,816 10/796
•4,974 1/632

250
515
517
519
521
522

-29.9

600
601
602
264
616
621
648
625

D3. Federal Government Activities
600.
601.
602.
264.
616
621.
648
625.

Federal surplus or deficit, NIA2
Federal receipts, NIA
Federal expenditures, NIA
National defense purchases
Defense Department obligations total
Defense Department obligations, procurement
New orders defense products
Military contract awards in U.S

Ann.rate, bil.dol. .
do
do
do
Mil. dol
do
Bil dol
Mil. dol

-5.6

-8.1

-1.9

258.5
264.2

291.1
299.1

302.8
304.7

-24.5
294.7
319.3

-54.4
284.1
338.5

74.4

78.7

78.4

84.0

84.7

7/085
1/571

7/753
1/741

8/052
1/818

7/990
1/742

7/780
1/761

-22.6
-2.7

4.8
7.1

8/223
2/349

7/952
1/425

NA
NA

-3.3

-39.3

1.71

1.90

2.10

1.81

1.83

1.70

1.64

2/954

3/457

3/716

3/490

3/499

2/817

4/122

NA

149.6
133.1
0.7
134.7

167.0
147.7
1.0
160.1

169.6
149.9
1.0
165.4

174.7
154.2
0.9
171.2

178.0
157.0
0.5
171.2

157.8
0.3
170.4

158.6
0.6
172.1

159.3
0.4
173.2

0.5
0.3
1.0

146.6

158.3

160.3

164.0

167.3

168.8

168.8

169.8

0.0

1.69

-3.5
46.3

NA
NA
3.0
NA

-0.8
-4.2

-13.8
-6.1

-3.6

6.0
0.8
-2.6

1.1
1.1
0.3

D4. Price Movements
21 1. Fixed wtd. price index, gross priv. product . . .
781 Consumer prices all items (§)
781 c. Change in consumer prices, all items, S/A2 . . .
750. Wholesale prices, all commodities®

1958=100
1967=100
Percent
1967=100

3.0
2.9

1.9
1.8

0.6

3.5

0.0

211
781
781
750

0.6

2.3

2.0

740

0.0

741

0.4
-0.2

-0.1

-0.4

D5. Wages and Productivity
740. Average hourly earnings, production workers
do
in private nonfarm economy
741. Real average hourly earnings, production
do
workers in private nonfarm economy
859. Real spendable avg. weekly earnings,
1967 dol
nonagri prod or nonsupv workers
745. Avg. hourly compensation, private nonfarm . . 1967=100
do
746. Real avg. hourly comp., private nonfarm
do
770. Output per man-hour, total private economy .
do
858. Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm . .

110.1

107.2

107.0

106.4

106.4

107.0

106.3

106.6

95.73
148.8
111.8
115.2
113.7

90.97
161.9
109.6
112.1
110.6

90.95
163.9
109.2
112.2
110.3

89.80
167.7
108.7
110.8
109.4

88.28
171.6
108.8
110.7
108.9

87.69

87.67

91.54

-0.7

0.0

0.3

-0.6

4.4

-1.3

2.3
-0.5
-1.2
-0.8

-1.7

2.3
0.1
-0.1
-0.5

859
745
746
770
858

D6. Civilian Labor Force and Major
Components
Thousands
841 Total civilian labor force
do
842 Total civilian employment
do
843. Number of persons unemployed (inverted)4 . .

88/716 91/011 91/396 91/785 91/810 91/829 92/262
84/410 85,936 86/360 85/732 84/146 83/849 84/086
4/306 5/076
5/036
8/176
6/053 7/664 7/980

0.5
0.3

NA
NA
NA

-2.5

NA
NA
NA

NA

-2.9

NA

7.4

NA

NA

0.4

0.0

-0.7

-1.8

-20.2

-26.6

-3.7

-7.4

841
842
843

E. ANALYTICAL MEASURES
E2. Analytical Ratios
850. Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing2 . . .
851. Ratio, inventories to sales, mfg. and trade
852. Ratio, unfilled orders to shipments,
manufacturers' durable goods industries —
853. Ratio, prod., bus. equip, to consumer goods . .
854. Ratio, personal savings to disposable
personal income
860. Ratio, help-wanted advertising to
persons unemployed
857. Vacancy rate in total rental housing2 <§)

Percent
Ratio

83.0
1.46

79.0
1.51

do
1967=100

2.87
93.2

3.31

3.42

3.42

3.47

100.8

101.0

103.2

100.2

0.082

0.079

0.066

0.086

0.075

0.844
5.8

0.634
6.2

0.666
6.2

0.429
6.0

0.277
6.1

Ratio

do
Percent

79.4
1.49

75.7
1.60

68.3
1.68

1.70

1.65

3.48
98.3

3.30
96.6

93.4

-5.2
-1.7

-3.3

0.0
2.2

0.261

0.259

0.248

-0.8

-4.2

5.0
1.5
-2.9

852
853

30.3

-12.8

854

-35.6

-35.4
0.1

860
857

-0.2

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except for those indicated by®, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. "Series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. NA = not available, a = anticipated.
EOP * end of period. S/A=seasonally adjusted (used for special emphasis). For complete series titles (including composition of composite indexes) and sources, see "Titles and Sources of Series" in the back of BCD.
1
For a few series, data shown here have been rounded to fewer digits than those shown in the tables in part II. Where available, annual figures are
those published by the source agencies; otherwise, they (and the quarterly figures for monthly series) are averages of the data as shown in part II.
Differences
rather than percent changes are shown for this series.
3
For the latest month, new indexes are based on 10 components, old index on 8.
*Inverted
series. Since this series tends to move counter to movements in general business activity, signs of the changes are reversed.
5
End-of-period series. The annual figures (and quarterly figures for monthly series) are the last figures for the period.

8




850
851

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart

Al

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

(July) (Aug.)
P

T

(July) (Apr.)

P

T

(May)

P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(Feb.)

T

1600150014001300-

S_

120011001000-

296. ENP in carrent dollars, fl

900-

r?te, ML M.) X^

800-

r

205. 6NP in 1958 dollars. Q (ami, rate. ML dol.)

210. Implicit price deflator, Q (index: 1958=100)

217. Per capita 6NP in 1958 dollars, 0
(ann. rate, tnous. dol.)

Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

BCII

 JUNE 1975


700-

600-

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME

(July) (Aug.)
P

(Nov.) (No*.)

(July) (Apr.

P

T

I

National income, cyrrent dollars, 8 (an. rate, III. dol

222. Persoul iBttme, current dollars, Q
(w. rate, HI. dol.)

224. Disposable personal
csrreBt dollars, Q
(am. rate, Ml. dol.
225. Disposable personal
dollars, Q (ann.

227. Per capita
1858 dollars, Q

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 69.

10




JUNE 1975

BCII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

231. Total,1958 dollars, Q

232. Durable goods, total, current dollars,

Durabls goods, total excluding
current dollars. Q
234. Automobiles, arrest

236. NMfrraklt goods, total, current dollars, Q

237. Services, total, current dollars, Q

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

ItCII

 JUNE 1975


11

Section A
Chart A4

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT

241. Honresideirtial fixed investmeflt, totalj

242. Nonresidential structures, Q

243. Producers'iluratile eqyipraem, fl

245. Change in business inventories, Q

59

60

61

62

66

67

68

69

70

71

Current data for these series are shown on page 70.

12




JUNE 1975

licit

Section A
Chart A5 i FOREIGN TRADE

;iuly:
P

(Aug.)
I

(May)(Feb )

P

T

Annual rate, billion dollars (cirrent)
+15-

250. Net exports of goods and services, 0

+10-

+5-1.

0- '

-5-

-10-

252. Exports of goods and services, 0

253. Imports of goods and services, Q

; •

54

55

56

57

58

69

60

t-v

6<

t

"":

72

73

74

1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 71.

BCD JUNE 1975



13

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES

1953

54

55

56

57

58

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 71.




14

JUNE 1975

BCII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

Chart A7

FINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES

(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

Chaige in business inventories, durable goods, Q

520480440400360320280-

Change in business inventories, nondurable goods, 8

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 71.

BCII

 JUNE 1975


15

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS

(July) (Aug.)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

T

1953 54

55

56

57

58

(May) (Feb.)
P T

59

60

61

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

82

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 71 and 72.

16




JUNE 1975

BCII

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND
SAVING

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

298. Government surplus or deficit Q

1.975
Current data for these series are shown on page 72.

 JUNE 1975


BCII

17

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

(July) (Aug.)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

T

(Nov.) (Nov.)

P

T

248. Fixed investment residential stmctvr&s, 1958 dollars,

2«. Gross arto nfatact. 1958 fclfars. Q

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 69,70, and 72.

1R


JUNE 1975

Section A

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT
SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

Gross National Product Shares
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

P

T
70-1

65-

60J
20-1

15-

10-

5-

0J

National Income Shares

80-i

of gfltthyggs & percent of Rational income,
75-

70-

65J

286A. Corporate profits and
adjustment as percent

10-

5-

o-J
1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 73.


BCD JUNE 1975


19

i

'"J.J-CATORS

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart Bl

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

lA.jg.
T
Marginal Employment Adjustments i

*1. Average workweek, production workers,

38 J

"X'vr-v _77

21. Average weekly overtime hours, production
workers, manufacturing (hours)
^ ^ft

,

_

_ V»fc

A ^f

2. Accession rate, manufacturing (per 100 employees)

*5. Average weekly initial claims, State unemployment

3. Layoff rate, m^acturing (per 100 employees-inverted scale)

11

1953

54

55

°^

C-"7

:^

70

71

72

73

74

197E

Current data for these series are shown on page 74.




20

JUNE 1975

BCII

Section B

CYCLSCAL INDICATOR

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart Bl ! EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.
Roughly Coincident Indicators

46. Htlp-waitteil advertising (index: 1967=100)

Comprehensive Employment

48. Man-hours in ^agricultural establishments (am. rate, bil. man-dan)

42. Persons engaged in
activities (millions)

Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 75.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/JUNE 1975
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

IICII

01

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart Bl

EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT—Con.

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

3-1

rate, total (pffcent-jnvwled scale)

9102-j

34567-

234567-

Lagging Indicators
Long-Duration Unemployment]

*44. UnenpJoyment rate, persons unemployed 15 weeks and over ^

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 75.




22

JUNE 1975

!!€!»

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B2

PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE

Roughly Coincident Indicators

1953

54

55

56

57

58

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/JUNE 1975
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

BCII

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(July)

(Aug.)

P

I

(July) (Apr.)

P

T

(May) (Feb.)

P

T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

I Comprehensive Consumption and Trade

Manufacturing awl in* sales (Ml. dol.)

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Production, Income, Consumption, and Trade), no leading or lagging indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.




24

JUNE 1975

BCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

Leading Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
P

P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)

T

T

1 New business incorporations (thousands)

orders, durable pels industries (bil. dol.

extracts, total value (index: 1967=100;

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F.W. Dodge Division.
Current data for these series are shown on page 77.

BCII


JUNE 1975


72

73

74 1975

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)

11. Hew capital appropriations, manutacturing, Q (bil.

Hew private housing units started, ml (aan. rate, millions;
MCD moving avg.-4-tem)

permits, private housing units (index: 1967=100)

1953 54

55

71

72

73

74 1975

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from the source agency.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 77 and 78.




JUNE 1975

BUI

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)

P

T

P

T

[Backlog of Investment Commitments

96. Mafltffacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (bil. dol.)

97. BacBog of capital appropriations, narafactyring, B (bil. dol)'

Lagging Indicators

*61. Business expenditures, new plant and

80-

69. Haclinery aid equipment sales and business construction
expenditures (ann. rate, bil. dol.)

60-

J

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

40 J

1975

'This is a copyrighted series used by permission ; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on page 78.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/JUNE 1975
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

BCII

07

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT

Leading Indicators
(July)

(Aug.)

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)

P

T

Change in business inventories,
(m. rate, bil. dol.)

in Ink value, manufacturing and trade inventories
rate, ML dol.; m moving avg.-^-tenn)

Purctiased matmals, percent ot

took value, MHfacterers' imriirles of Materials ari
bil. «.; m BOWIE avg.-6-tera)
"

policy, production materials, percent of companies
60 toys or longer

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and 79.

 oo


JUNE 1975

RCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
INVENTORIES AND INVENTORY INVESTMENT—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

P

T

performance, percent of companies reporting slower del

Change in unfilled orders, durable goods industries
(ML dol.; MCD moving avg.-4-term)

Lagging Indicators

facturing and trade inventories (bil. dol.)

65. Book value of manufacturersMnventories, finished goods

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

NOTE: For this economic process (i.e., Inventories and Inventory Investment), no roughly coincident indicators have as yet been selected.
Current data for these series are shown on page 79.


II JUNE 1975


69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

'23. Nrfsstrial nulerials prices (index: 1967=100)

Corporate pfits after taxes, Q (m rate, HI. Ail.)
*16. Current dol

20-

22. Ratio, prints (after taxes) to income originating
in corporate DUSIICSS, 8 (percent)

141210-

8-

15. Prof its (after taxes) per dollar of sales, manufacturing, Q (cents)

7l
5

*
140130-

120-

*17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost, manufacturing (index: 1961-100)
110-

100-

90-

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 79 and 80.


°A


JUNE 1975

BCD

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.

B5

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)

(Aug.)

P

T

P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)

P

T

T

Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars,
0 (an. rate, bit. dol.)

35. Net cash flow, corporate, 1958 dollars,
8 (ann. rate, bit. dol.)

Roughly Coincident Indicators

190 -|
180170160150140-

130120-

55. Wholesale prices, industrial commodities (index: 1967-108)

100
190
180

noiso150
140
130

58. Wholesale prices, manufactured goods (index: 1967=180)

120

11010090801953 54

55

56

57

58

Current data for these series are shown on page 80.


JUNE 1975


BCII

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

Chart B5

PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS—Con.

Lagging Indicators
(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

63c. Change over 1 -quarter spans, I (ann. rate

(cirr. dol.) per unit of real corporate product, I (dollars

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 80.


Q/)


JUNE 1975

IMJI

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

in money supply (Ml) (m. rate, percent: MCD

in money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks (M2)
, percent; moving ave.-6-term)

money supply (tigs time deposits at hanks and
institutions (M3) (am. rate, percent; moving avg.-1-tra)

in mortgage m im. rate, ML dol.

in business loans (m rate, bil. dol.;
moving avg.-6-term)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

Current data for these series are shown on page 81.

BCJ) JUNE 1975



33

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

P

T

installment deW (m rate, HI. Ml

Total private borrowing, 8 (am. rate, bil. dol.)

rate, 9 toys ml over, IBM
IMS (perceot-iBYertei scale)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data (or these series are shown on page 81.

34


JUNE 1975

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Section B

Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

tt. Free reserves (bil. dol.-inverted scale)

116. Corporate bond yields (percent)

117. Municipal bora yieios (percent)

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

BCII JUNE

1975




35

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Economic Process and Cyclical Timing
MONEY AND CREDIT—Con.

Lagging Indicators
(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

Consumer installment debt (bil. dol.)

Commercial and industrial loans outstanding,
weekly reporting large commercial tanks

prime rate chargeoly

rates on short-term business loans, 1 (percent)

Mortgage yields, residential (percent)

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 82.

36




JUNE 1975

KCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing

Chart B7

COMPOSITE INDEXES

Coincident and Lagging Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975
NOTE: The new index of 12 leading indicators is shown on pages v and vii; the old leading index is shown on page 112.
Current data for these series are shown on page 83. Numbers entered on the chart indicate length of leads (-) and lags (+) in months from reference turning dates.

BCII

JUNE 1975



37

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing

Chart B7

COMPOSITE INDEXES-Con.

Leading Indicator Subgroups
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70

71 72 73 74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 83.

38




JUNE 1975

BCII

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST

Leading Indicators
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70

71 72 73 74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 74 and 77.

BCD
JUNE 1975



39

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Leading Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

permits, private housing units (index:

value, fflanefactiiring and trade inventories
dol.; MCD moving avg.--6lerinj

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 78 and 79.

40




JUNE 1975

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS

Chart B8

NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Selected Indicators by Timing

Leading Indicators—Con.
(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Oct.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

profits after taxes, 1 (ann. rate, ML dol.)

irice to unit labor cost, manufacturing (

in consumer installment debt (m

Roughly Coincident Indicators

fits'

s^*\-

B

ou7570-

01 nonagricultural payrolls (millions)

6560-

55-

Rn-

345678910-

1948 49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

Current data for these series are shown on pages 75, 79, 80, and 81.


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ JUNE 1975
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

ItCII

57

58

59

60

61 62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73 74 1975

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators—Con.
(Nov.) (Oct.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

1600-,
150014001300120011001000900800700-

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on page 76.

A O


JUNE 1975

Section B

CYCLICAL INDICATORS Selected Indicators by Timing
NBER SHORT LIST—Con.

Lagging Indicators
(July) (Aug.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(Nov.) (Nov.)

(May) (Feb.)
P T

P

T

am plat ad tt/nyml, 8 (ana. ran,

Isais
conercial talks W. M.)

1948 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 1975
Current data for these series are shown on pages 75,78. 79, 80, and 82.

BCD


JUNE 1975


43

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

AGGREGATE SERIES

Chart Cl

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)

(Nov.)

P

T

for new plant and equipment, all industries, Q

(b) Second anticipations as percent of

(c) First anticipations as percent of

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

1976

Current data for these series are shown on page 84.

44




JUNE 1975

ItCII

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS
AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.)
T

4% Manufacturers'sales, total value, fl (bil.

412. Manufacterers' inventories,
Mil book value, 8

414. Condition of manufacturers inventories: _
percent considered high less percent / \

capacity:
less percent

Index of consumer sentiment, Q (1st. Q

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

1976

Current data for these series are shown on page 84.


l JUNE 1975


A.R

ANTICIPATIONS AND

Section C

(July) (Apr.)

P

(Nov.)
P

(May) (Feb.)

T

P

T

(Nov.)
T

DSL Business expenditures tor new pint and equipment,

tew onters, BMrtxturiiig (U span)'

1441 Net mitts. nrtciviK art tra* MiBMM

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

1976

Current data for these series are shown on pages 84 and 85.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet Inc.


/IC


JUNE 1975

BCII

Section C

ANTICIPATIONS AND
DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.

(July) (Apr.)

P

(Nov.)
P

(May) (Feb.)

T

P

T

(Nov.)
T

jffWWwHW ItHH»Av*

Iplottsd at tenaiual
MSI. Level of inventories, naaaiacrrtg and

D460. Selling prices, BaBBfKUinyj am) trade

MM. Selling prices, wholesale trade (4-8

D466. Selling prices, retail trade (4-Q span)'

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

71

72

73

74

75

1976

Current data for these series are shown on page 85.
'This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet, Inc.


JUNE 1975


KCII

47

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

FOREIGN TRADE
(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

500. Merchandise trade bate

military aid (Ml. dol.: MCD moving avg.-6

506. Export enters, durables except motor vehicles
(bii. dol.; KCD moving avg.-6-term)

oiuers, n«kMAlA*i*»Mi
noneie€mc3i MuwkbiiiAvu
macninery
1967-100; MCB »vi«? avg,-4-te™)

ArflAv*

512. 6enara] im»fts (Ml

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 86.


48


JUNE 1975

BCII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D2

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

\

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

\T-VA

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 87.

ltd*

JUNE 1975



49

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D2

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.

(July)
P

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)

P

T

f& all foreigBers, wtsta&iiRg at find if period

532. Liquid rt curtail MrtpH liabilities
foreign official agncss, outstaying at

94. U.S. official rcs&VB <&$ct$~-r6$8rv8 position at

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 87. End-of-year figures are used prior to 1960.

50




JUNE 1975

BCII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.

(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

Excess of receipts
Excess of papents

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 87. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.

BCII

JUNE 1975



51

Section D

OTHER KEY
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)

P

T

of receipts (Mm)
Excess of payments (outflow)

32-

28-

24-

20-

16-

12-

on U.S. investments

8-

0J

Receipts from foreign travelers in the (J.S
8-

U.S. military expenditures abroad

4-

0-

Military sales to foreigners
16-

12-

8-

4-

0-

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.

52




JUNE 1975

ltd!

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS—Con.

1953

54

55

56

57

58

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 88. Annual totals are used prior to 1960.

BCII


JUNE 1975


53

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES

1953

54

55

56

57

58

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)

(July) (Apr.)
P T

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.

54




JUNE 1975

BCII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES—Con.

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

oUifstions, total
awing a»|.-6-t»ra)

MCD MriM »g.-i-tm)

648. Itew OTBflfs,
products (bil. del.; m
moving m,-4~tra)

awards in U.S.
moving avg.-6-tenn)

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 89.

BCD JUNE 1975




55

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D4

PRICE MOVEMENTS

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

index, gross private product
to 1965), Q (index: 1958-100)

price iftdex, all (teas (seasonally adj.)-

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

1

0ne-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 90.

56




JUNE 1975

BUI

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

Chart D4

PRICE MOVEMENTS—Con.

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

e price Max, industrial commodities (seasonally adj.)

1953 54

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

1

0ne-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans.
See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes. Current data for these series are shown on page 91.

BCII


JUNE 1975


57

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)

P

T

853. Real sp@Hb&le avg. weekly
IT BOiSupHvissry workers

7(H

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.




58

JUNE 1975

ItCII

Section D

OTHER KEY INDICATORS
WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY—Con.

1953

54

55

56

57

58

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

'Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts and seasonally.2One-month percent changes have been multiplied by a constant (12) so that they may be shown against
the background of the annualized changes over 6-month spans. See basic data table for actual 1-month percent changes.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 92 and 93.

IICII

JUNE 1975



59

Section D
Chart D6

CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

(July) (Aug.)
P

1953 54

55

56

57

58

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

T

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 94.

60




JUNE 1975

BCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

1953 54

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 95.
'Trend line of 3.5 percent per year (intersecting actual line in middle of 1955) from 1st quarter 1952 to 4th quarter 1962, 3.75 percent from
4th quarter 1962 to 4th quarter 1965, and 4 percent from 4th quarter 1965 to 1st quarter 1975. See special note on page 95.

JUNE 1975




61

Section E

ANALYTICAL
ANALYTICAL RATIOS

(July)
P

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

(Nov.) (Nov.)

P

T

851. Ratio, inventories to sales,

HI. Ratio, infilled enters to shpunts,
manufacturers' (Arable goods in&sfries (ratio)

s "~
854. Rattaf personal saving to disposabls personaf iiciwr 0 (ratio)

KB. Ratio, Wp-wfflW advertising to Nntef

857. Vacaey rate H total

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 96.

62




JUNE 1975

BCII

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Chart

DIFFUSION INDEXES

E3

Leading Indicators
(July)
P

(Aug.)
T

21 infcstries CM* am—

orders, «n«e goods ttsMB-S MtiriK (9-M. spa—, H».

aptprtatas-ff Mtfrfe (3-fl spa—, H spa

pert npftf Mgkr profits--**! 1,081

stocks-6M2 MBblB CM* spa—, 1

prices--13 iriastrial wterials CNN. spa—, 1-m.

iisiiraice~47 aw (percent declimag; 9-mo.

1953

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

^is is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from The Conference Board.
Current data for these series are shown on pages 97 and 98.

BCII


JUNE 1975


63

Section E

ANALYTICAL MEASURES
DIFFUSION INDEXES—Con.

Roughly Coincident Indicators
(July)
P

(Nov.) (Nov.)

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Aug.)
T

P

T

goods--22 iwtestries (6-mo. SWB—, 1-mo.

1953 54

55

56

57

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 98.




64

JUNE 1975

BCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

Section E

(May) (Feb.)
P
T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

(Nov.)

(Nov.)

P

T

205. (c) GNP iB constant dollars (1-Q span)

indicators (series 41, 43, 4/, 52,

1957

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74

75

1976

To locate basic data for these rates of change, consult "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide," pp. 117-120.

ito

JUNE 1975



65

Section

F
Chart Fl

CONSUMER PRICES

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

1953

54

(July) (Apr.)
P T

55

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

56

57

58

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 103.

66




JUNE 1975

Section F

INTERNATIONAL COMP*
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

1953

54

55

56

57

58

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P
T

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on pages 103 and 104.

BCII


JUNE 1975


67

Section F

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
STOCK PRICES

1953

54

55

56

57

58

(Nov.) (Nov.)
P
T

(May) (Feb.)
P T

(July) (Apr.)
P T

(July) (Aug.)
P
T

59

60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72

73

74 1975

Current data for these series are shown on page 104.

68




JUNE 1975

BCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT

Year
and
quarter

b. Difference

a. Total

210. Implicit price deflator

205. Constant (1958) dollars

200. Current dollars

b. Difference

Total

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

b. Difference

a. Total

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

(Index:
1958=100)

(Index:
1958=100)

c. Percent
change
at annual
rate

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

+12.2
+10.5
+9.5
+12.7

770.9
786.6
798.1
814.2

+11.8
+15.7
+11.5
+16.1

+6.4
+8.4
+6.0
+8.3

144.6
145.3
146.5
148.0

+1.9
+0.7
+1.2
+1.5

+5.5
+1.9
+3.3
+4.1

+44.2
+29.0
+31.0
+35.1

+15.5
+9.6
+10.1
+11.2

832.8
837.4
840.8
845.7

+18.6
+4.6
+3.4
+4-9

+9.5
+2.2
+1.6
+2.3

150.0
152.6
155.7
158.9

+2.0
+2.6
+3.1
+3.2

+5.5
+7.3
+8.3
+8.6

1,358.8
1,383.8
1,416.3
1,430.9

+14.8
+25.0
+32.5
+14-6

+4.5
+7.6
+9.7
+4.2

830.5
827.1
823.1
804.0

-15.2
-3.4
-4-0
-19.1

-7.0
-1.6
-1.9
-9.0

163.6
167.3
172.1
178.0

+4.7
+3.7
+4.8
+5.9

+12.3

rl,4l6.6

r-14.3

r-3.9

r780.0

r-24.0

r-11.4

181.6

+3.6

r+8.4

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1,115.0
1,143.0
1,169.3
1,20^.7

+31.8
+28.0
+26.3
+35.4

1,2^8.9
1,277.9
1,308.9
1,344.0

1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

+9.4
+11.9
+14-4

1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

GROSS NATIONAL
PRODUCT-Con.

Year
and
quarter

215. Per capita
GNP, current
dollars

217. Per capita
GNP, constant
(1958) dollars

NATIONAL AND PERSONAL INCOME
220. National
income in current dollars

222. Personal
income in current dollars

Disposable personal income
224. Current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
dollars)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

225. Constant
(1958) dollars
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

226. Per capita,
current dollars
(Ann. rate,
dollars)

227. Per capita,
constant (1958)
dollars
(Ann. rate, dol.)

1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

5,354
5,478
5,593
5,750

3,702
3,770
3,818
3,886

912.3
932.5
954.3
987.0

913.3
930.9
950.3
985.0

774.7
790.0
807.2
838.1

566.2
573.6
581.9
600.1

3,720
3,787
3,861
4,000

2,719
2,749
2,784
2,864

5,951
6,079
6,215
6,369

3,969
3,984
3,992
4,007

1,027.6
1,051.2
1,077.3
1,106.3

1,013.6
1,039.2
1,068.0
1,099.3

869.5
892.1
913.9
939.4

615.1
618.2
621.8
622.9

4,143
4,244
4,339
4,452

2,931
2,941
2,952
2,952

6,428
6,536
6,676
6,730

3,929
3,907
3,880
3,782

1,118.8
1,130.2
1,155.5
1,165.4

1,112.5
1,134.6
1,168.2
1,186.9

950.6
966.5
993.1
1,008.8

610.3
603.5
602.9
594-8

4,497
4,565
4,681
4,745

2,887
2,850
2,842
2,798

r6,652

r3,663

rl,150.7

1,193-4

1,015.5

591.0

4,768

2,775

1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the xback of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 9,10, and 65.

ItCII

JUNE 1975



69

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

Year
and
quarter

230. Total in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

231. Total in
constant (1958)
dollars

232. Durable
goods, total, in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

233. Durable
goods, total except
autos, in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

234. Automobiles
in current dollars

236. Nondurable
goods in current
dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

237. Services in
current dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

701.5
720.6
736.8
757.2

512.8
523.2
531.2
542.2

112.1
116.2
121.2
124.3

75.5
77.9
79.4
82.4

36.6
38.3
41.8
41.9

288.4
297.4
302.0
310.9

301.0
307.0
313.6
322.0

781.7
799.0
816.3
823.9

552.9
553.7
555.4
546.3

132.4
132.1
132.4
124.3

87.0
87.3
87.0
86.3

45.4
44.8
45.4
38.0

323.3
332.7
343.8
352.1

325.9
334-2
340.1
347.4

840.6
869.1
901.3
895.8

539.7
542.7
547.2
528.2

123.9
129.5
136.1
120.7

88.1
91.5
92.5
88.1

35.8
38.0
43.6
32.6

364.4
375.8
389.0
391.7

352.4
363.8
376.2
383.5

913.2

531-5

124.9

35.3

398.8

389.5

1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

• GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
240. Total

241. Nonresidential
fixed investment

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

242. Nonresidential
structures

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

243. Producers'
durable equipment

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

244. Residential
structures

245. Change in
business inventories

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

169.4
175.5
182.1
190.2

112.7
114.7
117.5
122.5

40.7
41.0
40.6
42.2

72.0
73.7
76.8
80.3

51.8
52.9
54.5
56.7

+5.0
+8.0
+10.2
+11.0

199.0
205.1
209.0
224.5

130.5
135.6
139.0
141.9

44.6
46.2
47.9
49.3

85.9
89.4
91.1
92.6

58.5
58.7
58.1
53.6

+10.0
+10.7
+11.8
+28.9

210.5
211.8
205.8
209.4

145.2
149.4
150.9
151.2

51.3
52.2
51.0
53-7

93.9
97.2
99.9
97.5

48.4
48.8
46.2
40.4

+16.9
+13.5
+8.7
+17.8

163.1

146.9

52.8

94-2

35.3

-19.2

1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 11 and 12.

70




JUNE 1975

BCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

•M GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES
•••
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

^FOREIGN TRADE IN CURRENT DOLLARS
250. Net exports
of goods and
services

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

252. Exports
of goods and
services

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

253. Imports
of goods and
services

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

260. Total

262. Federal

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

264. National
defense

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

266. State and
local

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1972

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

. ..

-7.1
-6.9
-4.8
-5.3

69.1
68.8
73.3
78.5

76.1
75.7
78.1
83.8

251.1
253.8
255.1
262.6

105.6
105.9
102.7
105.2

75.9
75.9
72.6
74.7

145.5
147.9
152.4
157.4

-0.8
+0,5
+6.7
+9.3

88.8

103.7
113.6

89.5
94-9
96.9

104.3

269.0
273.3
276.9
286.4

106.4
106.2
105.3
108.4

75.0
74.0
73.3
75.3

162.6
167.1
171.6
177.9

+11.3
-1.5
-3.1
+1.9

131.2
138.5
143.6
147.5

119.9
140.0
146.7
145.7

296.3
304.4
312.3
323.8

111.5
114.3
117.2
124.5

75.8
76.6
78.4
84.0

184.8
190.1
195.1
199.3

r+8.8

r!42.2

331.6

126.5

84.7

205.1

1973

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

. ..

95.4

1974

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

1975

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

rl33«4

|
1
| NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
mm
IN CURRENT DOLLARS

IHFINAL SALES AND INVENTORIES IN CURRENT DOLLARS

270. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

280. Compensation
of employees

Nondurable goods

Durable goods

Year
and
quarter

271. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

274. Final sales
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

282. Proprietors'
income

284. Rental income
of persons

275. Change in
business inventories
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1972

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter . .

204.. 6
210.6
218.3
223.6

+2.7
+5.8
+6.8

+13.2

309.7
318.9
322.7
332.6

+2.2
+2.2
+3.4
-2.2

683.8
699.0
712.6
732.9

72.9
74.6
75.8
80.1

25.5
24.4
26.8
26.7

347.9
359.7
374.2
384.1

+3.9
+3.0
+2.9

759.1
776.7
793.3
814.8

89.1
92.8
99.3

103.2

26.3
25.7
26.2
26.4

98.4
89.9
92.1
91.6

26.4
26.3
26.6
26.8

84.9

27.0

1973

First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

. .

237.8
241.2
243.9
240.6

+6.1
+7.7
+9.0

+14.8

+14.1

1974

First quarter . .
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

242.3
248.5
259.8
246.2

252.9

+15.4

+18.3

392.8
402.9
413.2
418.6

+3.0
-0.5

828.8
848.3
868.2
877.7

-13-4

433,2

-5.7

875.6

+8.7
-1.8
+5.7

+8.2

1975

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter . . .
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 13,14,15, and 16.

ItCII

JUNE 1975



71

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

•••NATIONAL INCOME COMPONENTS
Mil IN CURRENT DOLLARS-Con.
286. Corporate
profits and
inventory valuation adjustment

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
fail, dol.)

288. Net interest

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Q| SAVING IN CURRENT DOLLARS
290. Gross saving

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

292. Personal
saving

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

294. Undistributed
corporate profits
plus inventory valuation adjustment
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

296. Capital consumption
allowances

298. Government
surplus or deficit

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1972

First Quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

86.5
89.5
92.9
99.8

43.6
44.9
46.2
47.5

164.4
169.4
175.0
184.6

53.3
49.0
49.3
58.9

21.3
22.1
23.3
26.5

103.7
103.3
105.8

-8.2
-5.2
-0.6
-6.5

103.9
105.0
105.2
106.4

49.2
51.1
53.2
55.5

201.1
207.9
217.0
231.7

65.3
69.6
73.2
89.3

26.3
24.9
25.6
26.2

107.4
110.5
111.5
113.9

+2.1
+3.0
+6.7
+2.3

107.7
105.6
105.8
103-4

57.5
60.1
62.8
65.9

224.5
206.3
196.4
202.9

84.4
71.5
65.5
86.5

23.9
17.1

+0.4
-1.0
+0.2

18.1

115.8
118.6
120.7
122.9

-24-6

r94.3

68.9

rl66.6

75.9

r21.5

125.2

r-56.0

98.9

1973

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

9.9

1975

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

J^REAL GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
273. Final sales,
constant
(1958) dollars

Year
and
quarter

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

246. Change in
business inventories,
constant
(1958) dollars

247. Fixed investment, nonresidential, constant
(1958) dollars

248. Fixed investment, residential
structures, constant
(1958) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

249. Gross auto
product, constant
(1958) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

263. Federal Government purchases of
goods and services,
constant (1958)
dollars

267. State and local
government purchases of goods and
services, constant
(1958) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

1972

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

. .

766.7
780.0
789.7
805.3

+4.2
+6.6
+8.5
+8.8

81.3
82.4
83.8
87.2

33.8
34.2
34.3
34.8

36.1
37.5
40.9
41.8

62.9
62.5
59.5
59.2

80.9
81.3
82.4
83.8

825.5
829.6
832.7
825.7

+7.3
+7.8
+8.0

92.2
94.3
95.1
96.0

35.0
34-1
32.6
29.8

46.3
45.2
43.6
41.6

58.9
57.7
56.2
56.4

85.2
86.2
87.5
89.3

26.4
25.7
23.6
20.4

29.2
32.6
38.9
33.6

56.3
56.3
56.5
57.0

89.7
89.5
89.4
89.3

17.3

26.7

57.4

90.2

1973

First quarter .
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

+20.0

1974

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

819.9
818.9
818.1
793.1

+10.6

+10.9

96.3
96.5
94.1
89.2

r791.8

-11.7

83.8

+8.2
+5.0

1975

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"N A", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 16,17, and 18.

72




JUNE 1975

BCII

NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME

Year
and
quarter

Percent of Gross National Product
241 A. Fixed
investment,
nonresidential

230A. Personal
consumption
expenditures
(Percent)

244A. Fixed
investment, residential structures
(Percent)

(Percent)

245A. Change
in business
inventories

250A. Net exports of goods
and services

(Percent)

(Percent)

262A. Federal
Govt. purchases of
goods and services

266A. State and local
govt. purchases of
goods and services
(Percent)

(Percent)

1972
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

62.9
63.0
63.0
62.9

10.1
10.0
10.0
10.2

4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7

+0.4
+0.7
+0.9
+0.9

-0.6
-0.6
-0.4
-0.4

9.5
9.3
8.8
8.7

13.0
12.9
13.0
13.1

62.6
62.5
62.4
61.3

10.6
10.6
10.6

4.7
4.6
4.4
4.0

+0.8
+0.8
+0.9
+2.2

-0.1
0.0
+0.5
+0.7

8.5
8.3
8.0
8.1

13.0
13.1
13.1
13.2

61.9
62.8
63.6
62.6

10.6
10.8
10.7
10.6

3.6
3.5
3.3
2.8

+1.2
+1.0
+0.6
+1.2

+0.8
-0.1
-0.2
+0.1

8.2
8.3
8.3
8,7

13.6
13.7
13.8
13.9

r64.5

10.4

2.5

-1.4

8.9

14-5

1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

SHARES OF GNP AND NATIONAL INCOME-Con.

Year
and
quarter

Percent of National Income
280A. Compensation
of employees

(Percent)

282A. Proprietors'
income

284A. Rental income
of persons

(Percent)

286A. Corporate profits and
inventory valuation
adjustment

(Percent)

(Percent)

288A. Net interest

(Percent)

1972

75.0
75.0
74.7
74-3

8.0
8.0
7.9
8.1

2.8
2.6
2.8
2.7

73.9
73.9
73.6
73.6

8.7
8.8
9.2
9.3

74.1
75.1
75.1
75.3
r76.1

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quartet..
Fourth quarter

9.5
9.6
9.7

4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8

2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4

10.1
10.0
9.8
9.6

4.8
4.9
4.9
5.0

8.8
8.0
8.0
7.9

2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3

9.6
9.3
9.2
8.9

5.1
5.3
5.4
5.7

7.4

2.4

r8.2

6.0

10.1

1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by <§). Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on page 19.

JUNE 1975




73

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

•^EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT

TIMING CLASS ....

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

LEADING INDICATORS

Minor Economic
Process

*1. Average
workweek of
production
workers,
manufacturing

Year
and
month

(Hours)

21. Average
weekly overtime
hours, production
workers, manufacturing
(Hours)

2. Accession
rate, manufacturing

(Per 100
employees)

Comprehensive
Employment

Job
Vacancies

Marginal Employment Adjustments

*5. Average
weekly initial
claims for unemployment
insurance,
State programs1

3. Layoff rate,
manufacturing

(Thous.)

(Per 100
employees)

48. Man-hours
in nonagricultural
establishments

46. Index of
help-wanted
advertising in
newspapers

(Ann. rate, bil.
man-hours)

(1967=100)

1973

3.8
3.9
3.9

4.7
4.8
4.9

226
E>223
227

0.9
0.8
0.9

122
119
121

147.00
147.98
148.42

[R)40.9
40.7
40.6

H>4.1
3.9
3.8

4.8
4.8
4.8

238
234
233

0.8
0.8
0 8

121
122
123

148.88
149.15
149.70

40.7
40.6
40.7

3.8
3.7
3.8

4.8
4.7
4.9

232
247
?41

0.9
0.8
0.8

H)131
126
120

149.90
150.12
150.52

40.7
40.6
40.6

3.7
3.8
3.7

fu\/.9
4.8
4-4

?/»/»
251
284

|R) 0.8
1.0
1.1

123
120
114

150.90
151.43
151.65

January
February
March

40.4
40.4
40.3

3.5
3.5
3.6

4.3
4.5
4.5

306
323
312

1.5
1.4
1.2

111
108

in

151.05
151.27
151.32

April
May
June

39.3
40.3
40.1

2.8
3.4
3.4

4.6
4.7
4.4

293
291
306

1.1
1.1
1.1

116
115
116

L50.52
151.90
151.79

July
August
September

40.2
40.2
40.0

3.4
3.4
3.3

4.4
4.3
4.1

290
332
362

1.0
1.2
1.3

119
115
103

151.59
151 .96
152.36

October
November
December

40.1
39.5
39.4

3.2
2.8
2.7

3.6
3.1
3.0

410
458
504

1.9
2.6
2.6

94
86
79

E>152.72
150.23
149.16

39.2
38.8
38.8

2.3
2.3
2.3

3.1
3.3
3-5

548
550
545

3-5
3.4
2.8

73
71
70

148.29
146.39

rl45.90

3.9

517
P496

2.5

71
71

r146. 15
p!46.36

January
February
March

40.5

40.9
40.9

April
May
June

....

July
.
August
September

. .

October
November
December
1974

1975

January
February
March
April
May
June

.

.

39.0
P39.0

r2.3
p2.3

P3.7

p2.5

July
August . . .
September
October . . .
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by E); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 20,21, and 39.

exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.

74




JUNE 1975

ltd*

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

UJEMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT-Con.

Minor Economic
PFOCBSS

Year
and
month

LAGGING
INDICATORS

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS-Con.

TIMING CLASS ....

Comprehensive Employment-Con.

*41. Number of
employees on
nonagricultural
payrolls,
establishment
survey

42. Persons
engaged in
nonagricultural
activities, labor
force survey

(Thous.)

(Thous.)

Long-Duration
Unemployment

Comprehensive Unemployment

*43. Unemployment rate, total

45. Average
weekly insured
unemployment
rate, State
programs1

(Percent)

40. Unemployment rate,
married males

(Percent)

*44. Unemployment rate, persons
unemployed 15
weeks and over

(Percent)

(Percent)

1973

January
February
March

75,4-72
75,851
76,111

79,182
79,863
80,256

5.0
5.0
4.9

2.8
2.8
2.8

2.4
2.4
2.4

1.1
1.0
1.0

April
May
June

76,339
76,508
76,787

80, 521
80,669
81 022

5.0
4.9
4.8

2.6
2.6
2.6

2.4
2.3
2.2

0.9
0.9
0 9

July
August
September

76,867
77,163
77,315

81, "M/.
81,148
81,626

4.8
4.8
4.8

2.6
2.6
2.6

2.1
2.1
2.1

0.8
0.9
0 9

October
November
December

77,6^9
77,915
77,92^

82,024.
82,006
82,011

[H)4.6
4.8
4.9

2.6
B)2 6
2.8

fj)2.1
22
2.2

0.8
0 9
(H)0 8

January
February
March

77,925
78,053
78,089

82,051
82,050
82,126

5.2
5 2
5 1

3.1
^ 2
1 1

2.3
p >

0.9
n Q
o Q

April
May
June

78,226
78,357
78,4.21

82,272
82,565
82,755

5.0
5 2

2 /

2

1 o
1 2
1 2

2 2
2 6

i n
10
10

July
August . . .
September

78,4.79
78,661
78,844

(0)82,970
82,823
82,913

5.3
5.4
5.8

3.2
3.2
3.4

2.7
2.7
2.8

1.0
1.0
1.1

G>78,865
78,4.04.
77,690

82,864.
82,314
81,863

6.0
6.6
7.2

3.7
4.2
A. 9

3.0
3.3
3.8

1 1

January . . .
February
March

77,227
76>708
r76,368

81,179
80,701
80,584.

8.2
8*2
8.7

5.5
6.0
6.4

4.5
4.7
5.2

1.7
2.0
2.2

April
May
June

r76,38l
p76,443

80,848
80,890

8.9
9.2

6.8

5.6
5.8

2.6
2.8

1974

October
November .
December

*>

2 1

1.2
1.4

1975

. . .

p6.9

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by 0); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [fi>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 21,22,41, and 43.
exclude Puerto Rico which is included in figures published by source agency.

BCII JUNE1975




75

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

jjQ PRODUCTION, INCOME, CONSUMPTION, AND TRADE
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process

Comprehensive Production

*200. Gross na- *205. Gross national product
tional product
in 1958 dollars
in current dollars

Year
and
month

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Comprehensive Income

*47. Index of
industrial production

(1967=100)

*52. Personal
income

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Comprehensive Consumption and Trade

*56. Manufac53. Wages and
salaries in min- turing and trade
ing, manufactur- sales
ing and construction
(Ann. rate,
(Mil. dot.)
bil.dol.)

57. Final sales
(series 200
minus series
245)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Sales of retail stores
*54. Current
dollar sales

(Mil.dol.)

59. Deflated
(1967 dollar)
sales
(Mil.dol.)

1973

January
February
March

1,248.9

832! 8

122.2
123-4
123.7

1,002.0
1,014.4
1,024.5

235.1
238.0
239.8

135,848
138,047
140,074

1,238.9

40,707
41,242
41,979

33,930
34,106
'H>34,393

April
May
June

1,277.9

837*.4

124.1
124.9
125.6

1,031.7
1,038.9
1,047.2

242.2
244-1
246.8

140,022
141,726
141,354

1,267.2

41,185
O,723
41,167

33,384
33,553
32,832

1,308.*9

840! 8

126.7
126.5
126.8

1,056.1
1,067.6
1,080.4

248.4
249.7
253.4

145,583
145,584
145,679

1,297.0

42,767
42,355
42,529

34,011
33,349
33,339

1,344*0

E>845.7

127.0
i>127.5
126.5

1,090.8
1,100.0
1,107.1

255.7
258.7
259.9

149,789
152,335
150,711

1,315.1

42,970
42,976
42,116

33,494
33,209
32,121

January
February
March

1,358.8

830.5

125.4
124.6
124.7

1,107.0
1,113.4
1,117.1

257.4
260.0
260.7

154,064
156,098
159,239

1,341.9

42,932
43,134
43,872

32,393
32,104
32,395

April
May
June

1,383.8

827.1

124.9
125.7
125.8

1,125.2
1,135.2
1,143.5

262.7
265.3
267.9

160,675
162,924
163,052

1,370.*3

44,283
44,894
44,593

32,360
32,O5
31,786

l,06ii

823.1

125.5
125.2
125.6

1,159.5
1,167.2
1,178.0

268.6
271.7
273.5

168,824
171,6^4
170,862

1,407.6

46,356
47,056
46,177

32,755
32,878
31,774

1)1,430.9

804.0

124.8
121.7
117.4

1,185.0
1,184.5
1,191.0

E>274.6
267.4
264.3

i>171,647
168,335
161,809

1,03-1

45,803
44,469
44,821

31,181
30,019
30,198

rl,O6.6

r780.0

113.7
111.2
109.8

1,191.1
1,193-4
1,195.7

261.2
255.4
255.2

161,754
162,814
r!58,544

Drl,435.8

45,955
46,819
r45,926

30,883
31,398
r30,577

rl,202.6
r!09.5
p!09.2 [H>pl,211.9

r255.7

pl6l,839

P256.0

r46,495
E)P47,516

r30,771
p31,322

'.

July
August
September .
October
November
December

.. .

1974

....

July
August
September

....

October
November
December
1975

January .
February
March
...

. .

April
May
June

(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by B); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by IB). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 23,24, and 42.

76




JUNE 1975

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

Q| FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT

TIMING CLASS ....

LEADING INDICATORS

Minor Economic
Process
....

Formation of Business
Enterprises

*12. Index of
net business
formation

New Investment Commitments

13. Number of
new business
incorporations

*6. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
durable goods
industries

8. Index of
construction
contracts, total
value1

*10. Contracts
and orders for
plant and
equipment

11. Newly approved capital
appropriations,
1 ,000 manufacturing corporations8

24. Value of
manufacturers'
new orders,
capital goods
industries,
nondefense

(Number)

(Bil.dol.)

(1967=100)

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

119.1
119.9
E) 120. 8

27,796
28,752
28,964

38.37
39.02
40.40

April
May
June

119.3
118.8
118.5

28,522
28,286
27,999

July
. .
August
September

118.2
117.2
115.6

October
November
December . .

Year
and
month

(1967=100)

9. Construction contracts
for commercial and industrial buildings, floor
space1
(Million
sq. feet)

(Million
sq. meters)3

1973

January
February
March

87.48
85.89
84.71

8.13
7.98
7.87

83.61
83.73
85.79

7.77
7.78
7.97

185
191
193

11.33
11.36
11.69

9!50

40.62
41.51
41.95

177
173
183

11.30
11.94
12.76

lo!63

27,664
26,689
26,240

41.84
41.98
41.15

175
!>199
182

12.62
12.65
12.26

11.32

10.57
10.28
10.39

116.2
117.6
114.0

26,809
26,718
24,881

43.30
43.48
41.03

191
194
161

13.29
13.40
12.73

II. B2

10.93
11.16
10.94

91.60
87.47
69.51

8.51
8.13
6.46

January
February
March . ..

113.3
113.0
113.9

26,511
27,056
26,458

41.52
42.27
41.97

155
187
181

12.66
13-17
13.01

11.00
11.42
11.30

76.53
80.67
75.07

7.11
7.49
6.97

April
May
June

115.9
116.3
115.7

E>29,071
27,562
25,785

44-12
46.73
46.85

167
188
166

13.67
14-57
13.84

15.31

11.92
11.80
12.01

82.77
77.98
75.83

7.69
7.24
7.04

July
August . . .
September

118.6
114.6
111.1

27,790
26,495
26,313

47.71
E)49.46
46.40

177
170
187

E>15.16
13.52
14.08

E>16!40

H>12.80
11.80
11.83

76.64
82.17
73.70

7.12
7.63
6.85

October
November
December .

105.2
105.1
106.3

25,404
25,555
25,003

45.08
43.18
37.84

148
154
176

12.87
12.34
13.64

rl2.*09

11.38
10.62
10.46

62.47
56.71
54.25

5.80
5.27

January . . .
February
March

102.9
101.7
103.0

24,406
24,298
r24,922

36.06
37.02
35.49

135
135
153

11.39
11.34
11.44

10,08

plO.*95

54.39
46.54
39.69

5.05
4-32
3.69

April
May
June

103.1
(M)

26,506

r38.75
P39.30

189
182

rl3.01
P13.06

56.90
44.79

5.29
4.16

9.57
9.45

10.04
9.94

10.04
10.56

H>95.42
89.80
83.77

|H>8.86
8.34
7.78

1974

12.46
...

5*04

1975

(NA)

9.97
9.52

rlO.31
plO.37

July
August
September
October
November .
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by H); for
series that move counter to movements in genera) business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by E>. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 N BE R "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 25, 26, and 39.
iThisisa copyrighted series used permission: it may not be reproduced without
written permission from the source
agency: McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company, F..W. Dodge Division (series 8 and 9;,
, or The
2
Conference Board (series 11). Due to a reclassification of 76 companies by industry, data beginning with the 4th quarter 1974
are not strictly comparable with earlier data. On the previous basis, figures for the 4th quarter 1974 and 1st quarter 1975 are
|l2.14 and $10.98, respectively. sConverted to metric units by the Bureau of Bsonomic Analysis.

l»f J) JUNE 1975



77

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS
TIMING CLASS ....

l
i
l

INVESTMENT

LEADING INDICATORS-Con.

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

LAGGING INDICATORS

LEADING INDICATORS

New Investment
Commitments-Con.

Backlog of Investment
Commitments

Investment Expenditures

Inventory Investment and Purchasing

Minor Economic
Process

28. New private *29. Index of
new private
housing units
housing units
started, total1
authorized by
local building
permits1
(Ann. rate,
(1967=100)
thous.)
Revised s

Year
and
month

BIBINVENTORIESAND INVENTORY

UJ FIXED CAPITAL INVESTMENT-Con.

96. Manufactur- 97. Backlog of
ers' unfilled
capital approbations, manuorders, durable
acturing2
goods industries
(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

*61. Business
expenditures on
new plant and
equipment,
total
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

39. Machinery
and equipment
sales and business construction expend itures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

245. Change
in business
inventories

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

*31. Change in
book value of
mfg. and trade
inventories,
total

37. Purchased
materials, companies reporting higher
inventories

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Percent
reporting)

1973

January
February
March

2,^86
2,376
2,309

195.7
191.8
177.7

82.27
83.91
86.80

April
May
June

2,096
2,313
2,087

164.4
166.4
176.7

89.60
92.74
96.41

July
August
September

2,120
2,058
1,861

156.8
155-9
146.8

98.46
101.54
103.45

October
November
December

1,692
1,721
IjVi-l

121.6
120.8
111.0

105.87
108.30
109.86

January
February
March

1,4-37
1,881
1,511

112 6
113 9
120 2

111.38
113.58
114.93

April
May
June

1,580
1,4.67
1,533

108.9
99.9
96.1

117.82
122.02
126.08

July
August
September

1,314
1,156
1,157

89.6
80.0
73.6

129.67
134.30
H>135.70

October
November
December

1,106
1,017
880

69.9
66.4
72.1

134.22
132.66
129.94

999
1 000
r985

59.4
60.4
58.3

125.87
123.25
120.10

72.1

rll8 23

96.19
25.94

97.76
29.42

126.^80
126.51
128.52
131.73
132.41

+10.0

+22.2
+23.4
+19.6

61
63
61

+10.7

+16.7
+27.8
+30.5

57
58
63

"13*5, 1/,

100.90

137.47
135.53
137.26

+11.8

+24.0
+23.9
+22.6

64
61
64

139.91
142.39
142.81

E>+28!9

+26.9
+35.7
+49 6

B)70

103.74

107.27

144.58
147.63
149.04

+16.9

+35.0
+38.7
+35.8

63
59
57

111.40

149.90
151.29
156.85

+13.5

+25.2
+48.0
+55.4

59
58
56

113.99

151.21
151.16
155.46

+8.7

+59.3
+54.4
+63.8

54
57
58

(H)116.22

E>160.04
159.26
155.69

+17.8

B)+71.9
+40.0
+46.7

49
47
41

114.57

153.06
155.70
r!50.51

-19.2

33.02

36.66

64
65

1974

38.89

44-67

[H>50.31

r50.10

1975

January
February
March
April
May
June

r986
pi 126

p78.3

nil 7 LL

p48.50

pi 51 83
T»fl1"13 3§

July
August
September

olio #7

October
November
December

oil's

(N/0

+0.1

-11.8
r-22.4
n-23 0

(m\

37
30
30
26
31

QS*

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by IB); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by (H) . Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The V indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

?*&&&$& S3 ^MicM

q e
pageiii

r

9

78



S

3Sd^lA^

quarter 1975 are $50.28 and $48.60, respectively.

aSee "New Features and Changes for Thifllsue°« on
JUNE 1975 BCD

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

LEADING INDICATORS-Con.

LAGGING INDICATORS

Inventory Investment and Purchasing-Con.

Inventories

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process

1 20. Change in
book value,
mfrs.' inventories of mtls.
and supplies

Year
and
month

••PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS

HBlNVENTORIESAND INVENTORY INVESTMENT-Con.

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

26. Prod, materials, companies reporting commitments 60 days
or longer®
(Percent
reporting)

32. Vendor
performance,
companies reporting slower
deliveries ®
(Percent
reporting)

LEADING INDICATORS
Sensitive ComStock Prices
modity Prices

25. Change in
unfilled
orders, durable goods
industries

*71. Manufacturing and
trade inventories, book
value

65. Mfrs.
inventories of
finished
goods, book
value

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

(Bil.dol.)

*23. Index of
industrial
materials
prices®

*19. Index of
stock prices,
500 common
stocks®

(1967=100)

1941-43=10)

Prof its and Profit Margins

Corporate prof its after
taxes
*16. Current
dollars

8. Constant
1958) dollars

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

1973
+4.1
+5.3
+3.2

63
68
67

78
84
88

+1.36
+1.64
+2.89

198.94
200.89
202.52

35.72
35.87
36.19

139.3
147.5
155.3

[H)118.42
114.16
112.42

71.5

5o!5

April
May
June

+4.2
+5.3
+6.9

77
80
78

90
B>92
89

+2.80
+3.14
+3.67

203.91
206.23
208.77

36.08
36.45
36.84

158.2
162.9
170.1

110.27
107.22
104.75

74.0

51 .*4

July
August
September

+7.6
+6.3
+7.0

82
80
83

88
88
90

+2.05
+3.09
+1.90

210.77
212.76
214.64

36.85
36.74
37.04

178.1
189.8
186.3

105.83
103.80
105.61

72.9

49.*8

October
November
December

+7.9
+5.7

87
84
87

90
91
88

+2.42
+2.42
+1.56

216.89
219.87
224.00

37.12
37.33
37.95

188.1
192.4
208.9

109.84
102.03
94.78

73.2

49.'l

90

+1.52
+2.20
+1.34

226.92
230.14
233.12

38.46
38.89
39.11

215.9
232.0
237.2

96.11
93-45
97.44

83 .*2

54.5

52.9

January
February
March

.

...

+13.1

1974

January
February
March

+12.2
+11.8
+13.8

E)91

85

85
88
88

April
May
June

+12.6
+16.0
+13.5

83
84
84

84
79
76

+2.89
+4.20
+4.07

235.22
239.22
243.83

39.35
39.76
40.39

B)238.4
226.2
227.5

92.46
89.67
89.79

83 !l

E>+19.7
+17.9
+15.5

83
85
83

72
68
52

+3.58
H)+4.64
+1.39

248.78
253.31
258.62

41.34
42.09
43.41

228.2
224.2
214.7

82.82
76.03
68.12

D94.*3

+19.2

82
73
69

46
32
22

-1.47
-1.57
-2.71

264.61
267.95
271.84

44.27
45.58
46.73

204.4
196.4
183.4

69.44
71.74
67.07

79.5

46.*9

+8.4
+2.1
-6.1

64
64
58

18
16
17

-4-07
-2.63
-3.15

H)271.84
270.86
r268.99

47.60
47.70
1)47.73

180.1
181.1
182.3

72.56
80.10
83.78

r62.3

r35.*9

-12.2

57
54

22
24

r-1.87
p-0.79

p267.08

47.29
(M)

July
August
September
October
November
December

+9.5
+4.8

...

D58.*2

1975

January
February
March
April
May
June

(NA)

(NA)

186.4
184.2
172.7

1

84.72
90.10
91.18

2

July
August
September . .
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by E); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by E). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 28,29,30,40,41, and 43.

Average for June 3, 10, and 17.

BCII JUNE 1975



2

Average for June 4, 11, and 18.

79

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

(^PRICES, COSTS, AND PROFITS-Con.

TIMING CLASS ....
Minor Economic
Process

Year
and
month

LEADING INDICATORS-Con.
Profits and Profit Margins-Con.

22. Ratio,
profits to
income
orig. in
corporate
business

15. Profits
(after taxes)
per dollar of
sales, all
mfg. corp.

(Percent)

(Cents)

*17. Ratio,
price to unit
index, mfg.

(1967=100)

Cash Flows

ROUGHLY COINCIDENT
INDICATORS

LAGGING INDICATORS

Comprehensive Wholesale
Prices

Unit Labor Costs

34. Current
dollars

55. Index of 58. Index of
wholesale
wholesale
prices, mfd.
prices,
goods®
35. Constant industrial
(1958) dol. commod.@

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

Net cash flows, corporate

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

Unit labor cost, total
private economy
63. Index

(1967=100)

63c. Change
over 1-Q
spans
(Ann. rate,
percent)

68. Labor
cost (cur.
dol.) per
unit of gross
prod. (1958
dol.), corp.

*62. Index
of labor
cost per
unit of out-

(Dollars)

(1967=100)

put, mfg.

1973

January
February
March

11.4

4.7

103.0
104.1
105.3

112.0

79.1

120.0
121.3
122.8

121.6
123.6
125.7

127.6

April
May
June

ll'.6

4.7

104.7
105.6
106.4

115.7

80.5

124.2
125.3
126.0

126.4
128.3
130.1

12SL 8

July
August
September

11.1

4.7

106.0
109.3
106.9

114.8

78.5

126.1
126.7
127.4

129.1
133.4
131.8

132.1

October
November
December

10.8

5.7

106.3
107.5
108.6

115! 5

78.1

128.5
130.1
132.2

132.0
132.8
135.1

134*7

January
February
March

ll'.6

5*8

110.7
111.2
112.2

125.7

83.4

135.3
138.2
142.4

138.6
140.9
143.6

139! 9

April
May
June

12.1

5^6

112.8
113.9
114-0

126.3

BI.5

146.6
150.5
153.6

146.0
149.3
151.5

144-1

H>13i5

M>5'-9

116.7
119.5
120.0

E>138.*6

157.8
161.6
162.9

156.4
161.8
162.4

148! 5

11.1

4.9

120.9
|H> 121. 5
119.9

125.5

74.0

164.8
165.8
166.1

165.2
166.2
166.9

153.6

r9.*3

3^8

117.5
rll6.2
rl!3.7

rl09i 6

r62.5

167.5
168.4
168.9

168.2
168.0
167.8

G>157'.6

169.7
1)170.3

168.7
H)169.5

7.5

0.858

118.4
118.4
119.0

0.870

120.2
120.7
121.2

0.884

121.6
122.4
123.3

0.905

124.7
124.8
125.4

0.937

125.6
126.5
127.4

0.964

129.0
130.2
131.8

0.993

134.0
134.6
135.5

1.023

136.8
138.1
140.5

[H>rl.043

144.0
r!44-5
r!47.3

6.8

7.4

8.0

1974

July
August
September
October
November
December .

E>86!4

[H>16.5

12.6

12.8

14-4

1975

January
February
March . .
April
May
June

rl!3.6
pl!2.9

10.8

r!48.2
RPU9.2

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by 0); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by Jj). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 30,31,32,41, and 43.
x
Data beginning with the 4th quarter 1973 are not comparable with earlier data due to changes in the definition of profits
and in the rules for consolidation. The figure for the 4th quarter 1973 on the old basis is 4.8.

80



JUNE 1975

HOI

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

HJMONEY AND CREDIT

TIMING CLASS ....

LEADING INDICATORS

Minor Economic
Process
. ..

1

Credit Difficulties

Flows of Money and Credit

102. Change in
money supply
plus time
deposits at
commercial
banks (M2)1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

103. Change in
money supply
plus time deposits at banks
and nonbank institutions (M3)1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

33. Net change
n mortgage debt
leld by financial
institutions and
ife insurance
companies2
(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

+5.16
+4. 67
+0.47

+9.36
+7.02
+5.40

+10.65
+8.45
+6.99

+47.92
+49.33
+53 .46

+23.70
+50.95
+41.00

+6.51
+13.42
+13.72

+7.85
+12.03
+11.69

+8.20
+11.18
+11.76

+52.75
+53 • 51
+57.43

July
August
September

+3.62
-0.45
-1.35

+5.24
+6.96
+4.54

+5.96
+5.26
+4-43

October
November
December

+4.06
+12.60
+9.35

+9.48
+11.97
+10.58

-2.65
+9.75
+9.23

Year
and
month

85. Change in
U.S. money i
supply (Ml)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

112. Net
change in
bank loans to
businesses3

*113.Net
change in consumer installment debt

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate,
bil. dol.)

110. Total
private
borrowing

14. Current
liabilities of
business
failures®1

39. Delinquency
rate, 30 days
and over,
consumer
'nstallment
oans1

(Ann. rate,
mil. dol)

(Mil. dol.)

(Percent)

1973

January
February
March

+23-39
+23.96
E>+24.53

185,696

205.84
137.16
252.35

+26.14
+14.32
+13 . 07

+16.85
+23.89
+19.34

178,460

119.34
167.95
180.21

+53.60
+52.30
+43.74

+22.94
+29.40
+6.02

+23.98
+22.74
+16.31

184,496

206.19
190.15
189.47

+8.42
+10.49
+10.27

+40.69
+39.76
+31.66

+3.13
+4.31
+17.00

+20.40
+20 . 71
+4-92

161,928

185.66
218.67
245.62

+6.92
+11.26
+9.50

+7.31
+9.47
+9.65

+36.94
+39-94
+41.94

+19.79
+1.04
+30.01

+11.00
+8.05
+7.40

157,216

337.28
213.13
204.59

+6.10
+4-34
+10.37

+7.99
+4.48
+11.16

+7.53
+3.68
+8.98

r48.36
+47.59
+39.40

[H)+52.21
+20.42
+14.92

+13 . 84
+15.14 [H> 207,192
+13 . 03

209.76
375.69
215.50

July
August
September

+1.71
+0.43
+0.86

+5.02
+4.60
+2.99

+4.90
+3.63
+2.87

+40.28
+31 . 58
+31.21

+44.54
+14.17
+21 . 02

+15.90
+18.14
+8.12

164,088

153.40
232.68
217 . 01

October
November
December

+3.85
+8.52
+3.38

+8.35
+7.90
+3.73

+7.34
+7.42
+5 90

+28 . 81
+24 . 23
+16 25

+9.90
+21.42
+14 22

+4.82
-4.80
-9 77

306.83
^LL 66
242 59

2.65

142,088

-9.28
+5.53
+11.01

+3-91
+9.36
+11.80

+6.48
+10.46
+13.98

+24.80
+30.29
+29.04

-11 . 59
r-41.26
r-16.20

-4.81
+2.84
-5.24

p89,200

391.14
r384.76
343 .35

2.59
2.71
2.94

+4.19
p+11.29
4
+19.55

+7.66
p+13.32
4+19.00

r+11.91
p+14.75

p+36.44

r-22.40
p-22.70
5-18.43

-2.90

April
May
June

2.01

2.01
1.99

2.02

2.11
2.27

1974

January
February
March
April
May
June

2.54

2.56
2.61

2.63

2 80

1975

January
February
March
April
May
June

(NA)

(NA)

372 08

(NA)

(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by B); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by(H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 33, 34, and 41. 1Series that reached their high values prior to 1973 are: Series 85, +14-24 reached
in December 1972; Series 102, +18.98 reached in February21971$ Series 103, +17-49 in February 1971; Series 14, 86.79 reached
in December 1972; and Series 39, 1.71 in December 1971. Data include conventional mortgages held by the Government National
Mortgage Association. 3Data beginning October 1974 are not strictly comparable with earlier data. See "New Features and
19?4 iSSU6
BAverage for weeks
"
* 4Avera^e for veeks ended June 4 and 11.
IM

JUNE 1975




81

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Economic Process and Cyclical Timing

MAJOR ECONOMIC
PROCESS

UJMONEYAND(:REDIT-Con.
ROUGHLY COINCIDENT INDICATORS

TIMING CLASS ....
Bank
Reserves

Minor Economic
Process

93. Free
reserves @
Year
and
month
(Mil.dol.)

LAGGING INDICATORS

Interest Rates

119. Fed-

eral funds
rate®

(Percent)

Outstanding Debt

11 5. Treas- 117. Munic- 66. Consumer
1 1 4. Treas- 116. Corinstallment
porate bond ury bond ipal bond
ury bill
debt
yields®
yields ® yields®
rate@

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Mil.dol.)

Interest Rates

*67. Bank
*72. Commercial 109. Averrates on
age prime
and industrial
rate charged short-term
loans outstanding, weekly reby banks® business
porting large
loans, 35
commercial
cities @
1
banks
(Mil.dol.)
(Percent)
(Percent)

11 8. Mortgage yields,
residential®

(Percent)

1973

January
February
March

-1,388
-1,563

5.94
6.58
7.09

5.31
5.56
6.05

7.61
7.67
7.75

5.96
6.14
6.20

5.05
5.13
5.29

126,388
128,385
130,429

93,885
98,131
101,548

6.00
6.02
6.30

6*. 52

April
May
June

-1,564
-1,638
-1,653

7.12
7.84
8.49

6.29
6.35
7.19

7.70
7.69
7.73

6.11
6.25
6.32

5.15
5.14
5.18

131,833
133,824
135,436

103,726
104,919
106,008

6.60
7.01
7.49

7.35

July
August
September

-1,584
-1,734
-1,477

10.40
10.50
10.78

8.02
8.67
8.48

7.97
8.45
8.10

6.53
6.85
6.41

5.40
5.48
5.10

137,434
139,329
140,688

107,920
110,370
110,872

8.30
9.23
9.86

9!24

8.19
(NA)
9.18

-1,141
-1,111

10.01
10.03
9.95

7.97
7.95
8.09

6.25
6.30
6.35

5.05
5.18
5.12

142,388
144,114
144,524

111,133
111,492
112,909

9.94
9.75
9.75

10.08

-995

7.16
7.87
7.36

8.97
8.86
8.78

-790
-980

7.76
7.06
7.99

8.32
8.21
8.60

6.56
6.54
6.81

5.22
5.20
5.40

145,441
146,112
146,729

114,558
114,645
117,146

9.73
9.21
8.83

9.91

-1,444

9.65
8.97
9.35

-1,506
-2,282
-2,739

10.51
11.31
11.93

8.23
8.43
8.14

9.04
9.39
9.59

7.04
7.09
7.02

5.73
6.02
6.13

147,882
149,144
150,230

121,497
123,199
124,442

10.02
11.25
11.54

Il!l5

-2,982
E>-3,008
-2,957

H)12.92
12.01
11.34

7.18

6.68
6.71
6.76

151,555
153,067
153,744

128,154
129,335
130,988

11.98
12.00
H>12.00

H)12! 46

-1,585

10.06

6.57
6.61

[8)154,146
153,746
152,932

131,813
133,598
|H)134,783

11.68
10.83
10.50

ll!64

-823

..

October
November
December

7.55
7.56
7.63

...

7.73
7.79
7.89

...

1974

January
February
March

...

April
May
June
July
August
September

....

October
November
December

7.75

i>8.7A
8.36

10.18
10.30
R)10.44

D7.33
7.30

9.45
8.35

7.24
7.58
7.18

10.29

-960
-332

9.22
9.47

7.22
6.93
6.77

-441

6.49
5.58
5.54

9.17
8.84
9.48

6.68
6.66
6.77

6.82
6.39
6.74

152,531
152,768
152,331

133,817
r!30,379
r!29,029

10.05

*167

7.13
6.24
5.54

r+17
P-42

5.49
5.22

5.69
5.32

9.81
9.76

7.05
7.03

6.95
6.97

152,089

7.50
7.47

9.19

46.86

46.93

r!27,l62
r!25,270
2
123,734

E)7.05

(NA)
8.54
8.66
9.17
9.46
9.46
9.85

10.30
DlO.38
10.13
(NA)
9.51

1975

January
February
March
April
May
June

+95

. .

2+185

25.23

35.04

4

(NA)

8.96
7.93

9.94

8il6

8.99
8.84
8.69
(NA)
9.16

57.00

July
August
September
October
November
December

....

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Current high values are indicated by H); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by [H). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships ororder. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 35,36, and 43.

•'"Data beginning with September 1974 are not strictly
comparable with earlier data. See "New Features and Changes for This
Issue," on page
iii of the October 1974 issue. 2Average5 for weeks ended June 4, 11, and 18. sAverage for weeks ended June 5,
4
12 and 19. Average for weeks ended June 6, 13, and 20 • Average for June 1 through 23.

82



JUNE 1975

BCII

CYCLICAL INDICATORS-Selected Indicators by Timing

Qg COMPOSITE INDEXES

Year
and
month

820. Five
coinciders,
estimated
aggregate
economic
activity
(series 4 1,43,
47, 52, 56)

825. Five
coinciders, estimated aggregate economic
activity,
deflated
(series 41 ,43,
47, 52D, 56D)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

Leading Indicator Subgroups

830. Six

laggers
(series 44,
61,62,67,
71,72)

813. Marginal
employment
adjustments
(series 1,2,
3,5)

814. Capital
investment
commitments
(series 6, 10,
12,29)
(1967=100)

815. Inventory
investment
and purchasing
(series 23,
25,31,37)
(1967=100)

816. Profitability
(series 1 6,
17,19)

(1967=100)

8 17. Sensitive
financial flows
(series 33, 85,
112,113)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

145.6
149.2
151.9

102.2
102.5
103.2

121.2
121.6
122.2

114-8
116.6
118.8

115.6
116.3
118.5

124.2
125.9
B>128.6

1973

January
February
March

147.6
150.9

134-9
136.1
136.5

April
June

151.8
153-3
154.5

136.7
137.4
137.6

155.6
158.3
162.5

B>103.3
103.2
102.3

120.8
120.9
D122.4

118.6
121.3
123.9

118.1
119.0
118.8

120.4
123.7
121.9

July
August
September

156.4
157.4
158.5

139.5
138.7
139.9

167.4
171.0
173.6

101.7
102.2
102.8

121.1
120.5
118.9

123.6
126.9
125.3

118.6
120.8
119.2

122.5
117.4
108.7

October
November
December

161.0
162.6
162.1

141.6
E>142.2
140.5

177.2
178.9
182.2

102.6
100.8
97.7

118.9
119.2
116.1

127.1
129.1
132.9

119.6
119.0
119.5

108.2
110.6
104.7

January
February
March

161.6
162.4
163.6

138.8
138.4
138.5

184-3
186.4
190.8

95.3
95.2
94-8

115.7
116.6
117.3

132.1
135.2
134.6

122.8
123.7
125.6

106.9
109.6
115.8

April
May
June

164.8
165.9
166.6

138.7
138.6
138.2

195.1
199.8
204.5

95.6
95.6
96.1

118.3
118.4
rl!7.4

135.3
137.3
138.0

124-8
125.0
126.4

123.1
121.0
116.1

July
August
September

168.5
169.5
169.5

138.8
138.2
r!37.4

210.5
214.5
216.3

95.8
94-3
92.3

rl!8.8
115.9
113.3

137.8
D138.0
134.4

128.0
E>129.4
125.4

115.9
113.7
105.7

October
November
December

E>169.5
165.9
161.2

r!36.2
132.3
128.2

219.0
(H>220.4
r 220.0

88.5
85.0
83.1

109-6
r!08.4
rl08.6

129.4
124.0
120.3

124.9
124-4
rll9.4

106.1
101.1

157.8
156.4
154.0

125.2
r!24.1
r!22.8

r217.8
r212.9
r210.1

81.2
80.9
81.8

rl04.0
r!03.9
r!03.7

113.0
111.3
rllO.6

rl!7.1
rll5.9
114.5

r89.6
r91.2

154-7
H54.8

122.0
1121.8

r205.4
p201.4

P33-2

r!07.4
p!08.5

rill. 4
P113.5

rll4.8
pll6.0

P94.3

U9.4

May

1974

93.2

1975

January
February
March
April
May
June

(NA)

89.2

(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by®. Current high values are indicated by 0); for
series that move counter to movements in general business activity (series 3, 5, 14, 39, 40, 43, 44, 45, and 93), current low values are indicated by |ifi). Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. Series preceded by an asterisk (*) are included in the 1966 NBER "short
list" of indicators (chart B8). The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and "NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 37 and 38.
1

Excludes series 56 for which data are not yet available.

The new index of 12 leading indicators is shown on pages v and vii; the old leading index is shown on page 112.

ItCII JUNE 1975




83

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

AGGREGATE SERIES
Year
and
quarter

61. Business expenditures for new plant
and equipment, all industries
a. Actual
expenditures
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

412. Manufacturers' inventories,
total book value

410. Manufacturers' sales,
total value

b. Second
anticipations as
percent of actual

c. First
anticipations as
percent of actual

(Percent)

(Percent)

(Bil.dol.)

414. Condition
of manufacturers'
inventories: percent considered
high less percent
considered low
(Percent)

(Bil. dol.)

1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

99.9

r!77.6
rl82.2
r!87.6
rl97.5

103.0
104.3
106.2
107.7

12
10
11
10

100.6
100.8
101.0
101.2

100.5
102.4
100.9
100.6

r205.3
r210.6
216.7
225.4

110.2
113.0
116.1
120.9

9
11
12
13

107.27
111.40
113.99
116.22

99.9
99.3
99.1
98.4

100.8
98.7
99.3
99.8

231.6
241.3
255.7
253.7

126.5
133.5
143.0
150.4

18
22
23
31

114-57
ral!3.39
al!3.87
all5.38

98.8

103.0

a246.1
a256.1

a!55.6
al6l.3

(NA)

86.79
87.12
87.67
91.94

100.9
104.1
103.1
100.5

100.4
102.3
102.3

96.19
97.76
100.90
103.74

1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

DIFFUSION INDEXES

AGGREGATE SERIES-Con.

Year
and
quarter

416. Adequacy
of mfrs.' capacity: percent
considered inadequate less percent considered
excessive
(Percent)

435. Index of
consumer
sentiment ®

b. Second
anticipations

a. Actual
expenditures
(First quarter
1966=100)

D440. New orders,
manufacturing1 ®

D61. Business expenditures for new
plant and equipment, all industries

(1-Qspan)

Actual

c. First
anticipations

(1-Qspan)

(1-Qspan)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

24
26
31
35

87.5
89.3
94.0
90.8

44.4
50.0
55.6
83.3

77.8
63.9
88.9
75.0

75.0
44.4
47.2
50.0

82
84
86
84

82

41
45
48
51

80.8
76.0
71.8
75.7

83.3
61.1
83.3
66.7

77.8
77.8
72.2
75.0

86.1
63.9
61.1
72.2

88
90
88
86

88
90
88
87

51
49
45
32

60.9
72.0
64.5
58.4

77.8
86.1
61.1
63.9

72.2
77.8
61.1
55.6

75.0
86.1
69.4
61.1

82
74
59

86
80
85
80

22

58.0

38.9

36.1

66.7
52.8
66.7

1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

a.7

50

72
59
70

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 44,45, and 46.
•'•This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun & Bradstreet,
Inc.

84




JUNE 1975

BCII

ANTICIPATIONS AND INTENTIONS

QJ DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade1 ®

Year
and
quarter

Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade1 @
Actual

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

D446. Number of employees, mfg. and trade1 ®
Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

0450. Level of inventories,
manufacturing and trade1 ®
Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1972

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

74
76
79
80

76
82
84
83

82
82
85
86

83
88
90
88

56
58
62
60

58
60
61
60

64
66
72
71

61
66
66
66

78
79
76
76

82
85
84
80

86
89
86
85

88
90
90
88

63
62
60
60

60
63
62
60

73
76
75
76

69
72
72
70

74
76
71
63

80
74
79
77

82
84
80
70

86
78
86
82

58
59
56
49

61
56
60
58

78
79
78
69

70
67
72
72

52

68
58
66

57

75
62
73

44

53
48
54

58

64
54
50

1973

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

|£| DIFFUSION INDEXES-Con.
Selling prices

Year
and
quarter

D460. Manufacturing
and trade1 ®
Actual

0462. Manufacturing ®
Actual

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

Actual

(4-Q span)

D466. Retail trade1 ®

D464. Wholesale trade1 ®

1

(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

Anticipated

Actual
(4-Q span)

(4-Q span)

1972

First quarter
Second quarter .....
Third quarter .......
Fourth quarter

74
76
76
78

68
74
75
72

70
72
72
74

68
72
72
70

80
81
82
80

70
78
80
74

73
78
79
81

67
74
74
74

86
86
90
92

76
82
85
83

82
84
86
90

73
80
83
82

90
89
92
96

80
86
88
84

90
87
93
93

76
85
88
83

94
96
94
90

87
90
92
91

92
96
94
89

86
89
92
90

96
96
94
91

88
94
92
91

92
97
96
92

87
89
92
93

80

87
76
69

81

86
76
68

80

87
74
70

80

88
75
72

1973

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1974

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1975

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter .
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 46 and 47.
•^his is a copyrighted series used Dy permission; it may not be reproduced without written permission from Dun &Bradstreet,
Inc.

KCII JUNE

1975




85

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

^FOREIGN TRADE

Year
and
month

500. Merchandise trade
balance (series 502 minus
series 51 2)

502. Exports, excluding
military aid shipments,
total

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

506. Manufacturers' new
orders for export, durable
goods except motor vehicles
and parts

(Mil.dol.)

508. Index of export orders,
nonelectrical machinery

512. General imports, total

(Mil.dol.)

(1967=100)

1973

January
February
March

-289
-413
-102

4,955
5,070
5,311

2,304
2,248
2,307

164
172
184

5,244
5,483
5,414

April
May
June

+133
-1^2

-47

5,494
5,561
5,728

2,111
2,258
2,109

193
184
207

5,360
5,703
5,775

July
August
September

+37
+32
+776

5,865
6,042
6,420

2,228
2,853
2,104

189
192
194

5,829
6,010
5,644

October
November
December

+589
+194

6,585
6,879
6,949

2,633
2,291
2,665

195
205
191

5,996
6,684
6,291

7,150
7,549
7,625

2,828
2,872
3,115

213
216
205

6,497
7,317
7,742

+658

1974

January
February
March

+653
+232
-116

April
May
June

-612
-257

8,108
7,652
8,317

3,375
3,520
2,960

219
206
210

8,025
8,264
8,573

July
August
September

-610
-882
-302

8,308
8,380
8,396

2,900
3,204
3,327

211
219
215

8,918
9,262
8,698

8,673
8,974
8,862

3,565
3,264
3,305

207
190
178

8,769
8,965
9,250

3,295
3,166
3,647

187
172

+1,380

9,412
8,789
8,716

9,622
7,872
7,336

+557

8,570

3 193

(NA}

(N/0

+83

October
November
December

-96
+9
-388

1975

January
February
March
April
May
June

-210
+917

(MA^
V.JNA/

r!78

r>19A
(NA.)

8,013
(NA)

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 48.

86




JUNE 1975

ItCII

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS

and
quarter

250. Balance
on goods and
services

515. Balance
on goods, services,
and remittances

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

Revised2

Revised2

Revised

(Mil.dol.)

1972
First quarter ..,
Second quarter ,
Third quarter..,
Fourth quarter

Revised8

522. Official
reserve transactions balance

530. Liquid
liabilities to all
foreigners1©

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

Revised2

Revised

521. Net

519. Balance on
current account
and long-term
capital

517. Balance
on current
account

liquidity balance

-1,786
-1,657
-1,245
-1,243

-2,187
-2,050
-1,625
-1,674

-2,773
-2,608
-2,198
-2,131

-3,953
-2,338
-2,966
-1,855

-3,460
-2,287
-4,570
-3,511

-3,563
-624
-4,681
-1,485

66,925
69,880
75,498
78,679

-361
166
1,553
2,820

-755
-228
1,147

-1,116

2; 110

653
1,647

-1,393
-1,085
1,917
-419

-6,811
-1,719
1,826
-950

-10,629
551
2,318
2,449

85,524
86,380
86,560
87,533

2,915
(3)
-261
919

2,545
-457
-718
480

.-51
-1,865
-1,526
-169

1,624
-2,380
-3,600
-6,573

-1,199
-6,212
-3,909
-7,725

552
-4,192
119
-4,855

91,040
98,805
105,346
rl!2,774

p3,344

p2,886

p2,148

P-475

P3,071

p-3,223

pl!3,154

1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

-849

1974

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

1975
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

Year
and
quarter

532. Liquid
and certain
nonliquid liabilities to
foreign official
agencies1®
(Mil.dol.)

534. U.S.

official
reserve
assets4®

Goods and Services Movements, Excluding Transfers Under Military Grants

253. Imports

252. Exports
(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)
2

Revised

1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

Merchandise, adjusted5

Goods and services

540. Exports

541. Imports

536. Exports

537. Imports

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

Revised2

Revised3

Revised2

2

Revised2

Revised

Income on investment, military
transactions, other services

53,806
54,604
60,075
61,526

12,270
13,339
13,217
13,151

17,247
17,275
18,349
19,729

19,033
18,932
19,594
20,972

11,798
11,699
12,496
13,395

13,489
13,296
14,027
14,985

5,449
5,576
5,853
6,334

5,544
5,636
5,567
5,987

71,335
70,701
69,777
66,810

12,931
12,914
12,927
14,378

22,329
24,U4
26,282
29,298

22,690
23,978
24,729
26,478

15,423
16,958
18,451
20,547

16,334
17,189
17,737
19,164

6,906
7,186
7,831
8,751

6,356
6,789
6,992
7,314

65,527
69,994
70,606
76,570

14,588
14,946
15,893
15,883

33,324
35,498
37,179
38,405

30,409
35,498
37,440
37,486

22,451
24,206
25,026
26,585

22,651
25,743
27,367
28,035

10,873
11,292
12,153
11,820

7,758
9,755
10,073
9,451

p79,068

16,256

P37,l6l

P33,817

p27,222

p25,38l

p9,939

p8,436

1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown onj)ages 49. 50, and 51.
i Amount outstanding at end of quarter. 2See "New Features and Changes for This
Issue," page iii. a Less than $500,000 (+). ^Reserve position at end of quarter. s Balance of payments basis: Excludes transfers
under military grants and Department of Defense sales contracts (exports) and Department of Defense purchases (imports).
 JUNE 1975


87

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

Year
and
quarter

Income on Investments, Military Transactions and Other Services (components of series 540 and 541)

544. Receipts
from foreign travelers in the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)

543. Foreign
investments in
the U.S.
(Mil.dol.)

542. U.S. investments abroad
(Mil.dol.)

Revised1

Revised*

Transportation and other services

Military transactions

Travel

Income on investments

545. Payments
by U.S. travelers
abroad
(Mil.dol.)

Revisedi

Revisedi

546. Sales under
military contracts
(Mil.dol.)

Revised1

547. Military

548. Receipts

549. Payments

expenditures
abroad ®
(Mil.dol.)

from

for

Revisedi

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil.dol.)

Revisedi

Revisedi

1972

First quarter ...
Second quarter ,
Third quarter..,
Fourth quarter ,

2,274
2,387
2,595
2,905

1,364
1,403
1,462
1,612

673
695
713
736

1,232
1,231
1,250
1,329

332
281
255
295

1,222
1,272
1,105
1,185

2,170
2,213
2,290
2,398

1,726
1,730
1,750
1,861

3,123
3,304
3,576
3,995

1,799
2,096
2,413
2,511

836
817
860

1,338
1,394
1,375
1,419

347
455
531
1,009

1,174
1,236
1,072
1,177

2,600
2,610
2,864
2,848

2,045
2,063
2,132
2,207

6,129
6,447
7,054
6,438

2,884
4,483
4,700
3,879

997
995
1,016
1,064

1,463
1,476
1,455
1,579

663
678
766
837

1,166
1,324
1,279
1,335

3,084
3,212
3,317
3,481

2,245
2,472
2,639
2,658

P4,346

P3,021

pi,162

pl,559

p948

pl,295

P3,483

p2,56l

1973

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1974

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND MAJOR COMPONENTS-Con.

Capital Movements plus Government Nonmilitary Unilateral Transfers

Year
and

560. Foreign investments in the U.S.

1972

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

Securities investments

Direct investments

quarter

561. U.S. investments
abroad

(Mil.dol.)

(Mil. dol.)

Revisedi

Revisedi

564. Foreign purchases
of U.S. securities
(Mil.dol.)

565. U.S. purchases
of foreign securities
(Mil. dol.)

570. Government
grants and capital
transactions, net
(Mil. dol.)

Revisedi

Revisedi

575. Banking and other
capital transactions, net

(Mil.dol.)

Revisedi

-221
216
156
229

1,121
335
1,315
760

1,059
961
718
1,769

476
318
-203
28

-747
-837
-993
-1,311

-923
365
-1,121
-1,518

371
583
990
711

2,065
1,025
539
1,339

1,718
489
1,173
r675

-30
111
216
462

-910
-571
-1,567
-1,551

-2,096
-580
-152
-3,050

1,177
1,700
-1
-653

745
1,572
1,828
3,123

r692
r440
r204
r-663

646
313
304
726

-1,294
-670
-930
-1,487

-7,019
-7,616
-1,783
-4,047

P326

P937

P604

p2,033

P-1,439

p-2,336

1973
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

1974
First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter
1975

First quarter ..
Second quarter
Third quarter..
Fourth quarter

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.

Graphs of these series are shown on pages 52 and 53.

iSee "New Features and Changes for This Issue," page iii.




JUNE 1975

ICO

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

E|FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITIES
Defense Indicators

Receipts and Expenditures
Year
and

600. Federal
surplus (+) or
deficit (-), national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

month

601. Federal
receipts, national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

602. Federal
expenditures,
national income
and product
accounts
(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

264. National
defense purchases

(Ann. rate,
bil.dol.)

616. Defense
Department
obligations,
total, excluding
military
assistance
(Mil.dol.)

621. Defense
Department
obligations,
procurement

(Mil.dol.)

648. New or-

ders, defense
products

(Bil.dol.)

625. Military
prime contract
awards to U.S.
business firms
and institutions

(Mil.dol.)

1973

January
February
March

6,840
7,337
7,361

1,631
1,838
1,704

1.62
1.63
1.80

2,824
2,899
2,947

74*0
• ••

6,739
7,269
7,069

1,349
1,730
1,633

1.90
1.79
1.96

2,568
3,171
2,897

263 .'4

73 .3
...

7,203
7,039
6,260

1,483
1,676
1,099

1.18
1.90
1.34

2,106
3,276
3,222

26B*.3

270.6

75^3
...

7,671
7,443
6,794

1,788
1,771
1,149

1.83
2.12
1.45

3,176
3,515
2,850

-2.*8

278.1
...

281.0

75.8

7,527
7,348
7,186

2,077
1,708
1,642

2.18
2.06
1.46

3,378
3,141
2,677

-3!o

288.* 6
• ••

291." 6

76*6

7,883
7,302
7,663

2,040
1,330
1,412

1.53
2.08
1.75

4,343
2,881
3,440

July
August
September

-l.*9

302.8

304!*?
•.•

78.4

8,177
8,199
7,781

1,919
1,692
1,842

1.38
3.23
1.68

3,494
4,153
3,502

October
November
December

r-24.5

r294*7

319*3

84.0

7,603
8,138
8,228

1,446
2,349
1,431

1.40
2.35
1.67

4,161
3,777
2,532

r-54-4

r 284.1

338.5

84.7

7,£09
7,508
8,223

1,424
1,509
2,349

1.64
2.15
1.70

3,693
3,987
2,817

7,95.2
(M)

1,425
(M)

rl.64
pi. 69

4,122
(NA)

-11 .* 2

249.1

260.2

75.0

-7!Z
• ••

255.0

262.4

261.' 8
• ••

-2.3

April
May

June

• ••
-1.7

July
August
September
October
November
December
1974

January
February
March

. .

April
May

June

1975

January
February
March
April
May

June
July
August
.
September

. .

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 54 and 55.

JUNE 1975




89

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

JJPRICE MOVEMENTS
Fixed weighted price index,
gross private product

Year
and
month

Consumer price indexes

21 1c. Change
over 1 -quarter
spans1

211. Index

781. Index©

(1958=100)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

782. Food

All items

(1967=100)

781 c. Change
over 1 -month
spans1
(Percent)

781 c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

(1967=100)

783. Commodities less
food

784. Services®

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

1973

...

January
February
March

U5.1

April
May
June

us!6

7.4
...

July
August
September .

8.1

0.5
0.6
0.8

130.7
131.5
132.4

0.7
0.5
0.6

6.8
7.3
7.9

129.2
131.0
134-0

121.0
121.4
121.9

135.7
136.2
136.6

7.5
8.7

136.2
137.9
139.8

122.4
122.8
123.3

137.1
137.6
138.1

8.9
9.6
9.7

139.9
148.8
148.0

123.5
123.9
124.2

138.4
139.3
140.6
142.2
143.0
143.8

10.0

8.4

132.7
135.1
135.5

0.3
1.7
0.3

9.1

136.6
137.6
138.5

0.8
0.8
0.7

11.4
10.0
11.7

149.0
150.9
152.1

125.0
125.9
126.8

139.7
141.5
143.1

1.1
1.1
1.0

11.3
11.8
12.3

154.6
157.4
158.2

128.4
129.8
131.5

144.8
r!45.9
r!47.1

12.2

143.9
145.5
146.9

0.7
1.0
0.9

11.8
11.8
12.1

158.3
159.7
160.3

132.9
134.2
135.8

r!48.0
r!49.5
150.9

13.8

148.0
149.9
151.7

0.8
1.1
1.2

12.7
12.5
12.2

159.4
162.2
164.8

137.5
139.3
140.8

r!52.6
154-2
r!56.0

12.6

153.0
154.3
155.4

0.9
0.9
0.8

11.7
10.4

166.9
168.8
170.4

141.8
142.9
143.8

157.3
r!58.7
rl60.1

156.1
157.2
157.8

0.6
0.5
0.3

171.9
171.4
170.3

144.5
145.6
146.4

161.3
162.6
163.2

158.6
159.3

0.6
0.4

170.9
171.8

147.5
147.8

164.1
164.5

151.0
. .

October
November
December

127.7
128.6
129.8

154-4

1974

January
February
March

14.1

159.5
...

April
May
June

...
...

164.2

July
August
September

. . .
169.6

October
November
December

174!?

8.5

1975

7.7

January
February
March
April
May
June

178.0

.

.

.

7.8
6.6

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 56.

1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-quarter changes are placed
on 1st month of the 2d quarter, and 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month.

90




JUNE 1975

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

JJJPRICE MOVEMENTS-Con.
Wholesale price indexes
Year
and
month

750. All
commodities®

58. Manufactured
goods®

751. Processed
foods and feeds

752. Farm
products

Industrial commodities
55. Index®

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

55c. Change
over 1 -month
spans1
(Percent)

55c. Change
over 6-month
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

1973
January
February
March

124.5
126.9
129.8

121.6
123.6
125.7

131.7
135.5
140.4

143-3
147.5
158.1

120.0
121.3
122.8

0.2
0.9
1.1

8.0
8.6
9.3

April
May
June

130.5
133.2
136.0

126.4
128.3
130.1

141-5
145.9
150.7

161.7
170.2
178.4

124.2
125.3
126.0

0.8
0.8
0.7

9.4
8.6
7.8

July
August
September .

134.3
142.1
139.7

129.1
133.4
131.8

145.5
164.9
156.3

172.1
211.8
201,8

126.1
126.7
127.4

0.2
0.6
0.7

8.4
10.0
12.3

October
November
December
1974
January
February
March

138.7
139.2
141.8

132.0
132.8
135.1

154.5
154.8
155.7

193.6
189.9
189.9

128.5
130.1
132.2

1.1
1.5
1.8

16.5
19.8
24.9

146.6
149.5
151.4

138.6
140.9
143.6

161.1
162.6
161.5

200.6
200.4
193.5

135.3
138.2
142.4

2.0
2.0
2.8

28.5
31.1
32.2

April
May
June

152.7
155.0
155.7

146.0
149.3
151.5

161.4
160.0
156.0

187.9
180.8
164.5

146.6
150.5
153.6

2.6
2.5
2.2

34.4
35.6
30.8

July
August
September

161.7
167.4
167.2

156.4
161.8
162.4

166.9
177.9
177.0

180.8
186.8
184.4

157.8
161.6
162.9

2.9
2.5
1.0

27.9
23.8
19.5

October
November
December
1975
January
February
March

170.2
171.9
171.5

165.2
166.2
166.9

185.0
193.8
188.2

193.1
194.0
186.1

164.8
165.8
166.1

1.5
0.8
0.4

14-0
9.5
7.6

171.8
171.3
170.4

168.2
168.0
167.8

185.3
180.3
175.7

177.9
l70.!2
168.1

167.5
168.4
168.9

0.5
0.4
0.1

4.7
3.4

172.1
173.2

168.7
169.5

181.9
180.3

179.3
184.5

169.7
170.3

0.1
0.2

April
May
June
July
August . . .
September
October
November
December

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 57.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month percent changes are placed on the 2d month and 6-month percent changes
are placed on the 4th month.

ItCII JUNE 1975




91

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

I

JJwAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY
Average hourly earnings, production workers, private nonfarm economy, adj.1
Year
and
month

Real earnings

Current dollar earnings
740. Index

(1967=100)

740c. Change 740c. Change
over 1 -month over 6-month
spans2
spans2
(Ann. rate,
(Percent)
percent)

741. Index

(1967=100)

74 1c. Change 74 1c. Change
over 1 -month over 6-month
spans2
spans2
(Ann. rate,
(Percent)
percent)

Average hourly compensation, all employees,
859. Real
private nonfarm economy
spendable
avg. weekly
earnings of
Current dollar compensation
nonagri. prod,
or nonsupv.
745c. Change 745c. Change
745. Index
workers
over 1 -quarter over 4-quarter
spans2
spans2
(Ann. rate,
(Ann. rate,
percent)
(1967=100)
percent)
(1967 dol.)

1973

January
February
March

142.3
142.7
143.5

0.3
0.2
0.6

5.9
5.9
5.9

111.2
110.8
110.5

-0.2
-0.4
-0.3

-0.8
-1.3
-1.9

96.42
96.32
96.17

145^3

U4-4

144c8
146.0

0.7
0.2
0.8

6.4
7.1
7.7

110.4
110.1
110.4

-0.1
-0.3

-1.0
-2.6
-1.0

96.34
95.83
95.89

147! 3

146.8
147.7
148.9

0.6
0.6
0.8

7.2
7.8
7.2

110.6
109.4
110.0

-1.5
-1.6

96.23
94.78
95.40

149.7
...

149.6
150.3
151.1

0.5
0.5
0.5

6.7
6.9
6.5

109.6
109.3
109.1

-0.4

-4.2

-0.3
-0.2

-2.9
-4.7

94-58
94-43
94-22

...
152.7
...

151.7
152.6
153.6

0.4
0.6
0.6

6.5
7.8
9.6

108.3
107.8
107.4

-0.7
-0.5
-0.4

-4.4
-3.5
-2.4

92.75
92.52
91.77

156.0

154-3
156.1
158.2

0.4
1.2
1.3

9.5

107.2
107.3
107.8

-tf.2
0.1
0.5

-2.0
-1.4
-0.9

91.16
91.62
91.55

160 \2

July
August
September

158.7
160.2
161.9

0.3
1.0
1.1

-0.6
-0.2
-0.1

-0.9
-1.9
-2.9

91.18
90.90
90.78

163 !<?

8.9

107.2
107.0
106.9

October
November
December

163.1
163.9
165.1

0.7
0.5
0.7

9.3
8.9
8.7

106.7
106.3
106.2

-0.2
-0.4
-0.1

-2.1
-1.3
rO.3

90.31
88.79
89.08

167 !?

166.0
167.2
168.8

0.5
0.7
1.0

7.1

106.0
106.3
107.0

-0.2

-0.7
pO.7

88.08
87.69
87.59

171.6

168.8
pl69.8

r!06.3
p!06.6

r-0.7

pO.6

April
May
June

...

July
August
September
October
November
December

. . .
. .

0.3
0.2
-1.1

0.5

-2.3

11.2

7i5
5.6
7.*9

...
6.8
7)3
8.2
8.7

1974

January
February
March
April
May
June

. . . .

10.2
11.1
11.7
10.3

8.8
9.4
11.2
9*.8

9.7
10.0

9.6

1975

January
February
March
April
May
June

0.0

P7.3

0.3
0.7
pO.3

9.6

r87.67
P91.54

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.

-"•Adjusted for overtime (in manufacturing only) and interindustry employment shifts.
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-month changes are placed on the 2d month, 1-quarter changes are placed
on the 1st month of the 2d quarter, 6-month changes are placed on the 4th month, and 4-quarter changes are placed on the middle
month of the 3d quarter.
2

92




JUNE 1975

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

QJ WAGES AND PRODUCTIVITY-Con.
Average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy-Con.

Year
and
month

748. First
year average
changes

Real compensation
746. Index

(1967=100)

746c. Change
over 1 -quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

746c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1
(Ann. rate,
percent)

Output per man-hour, total
private economy

Negotiated wage and benefit
decisions, all industries®

(Ann. rate,
percent)

749. Average
changes over
life of
contract
(Ann. rate,
percent)

770. Index

(1967=100)

770c. Change
over 1 -quarter
spans1

770c. Change
over 4-quarter
spans1

(Ann. rate,
percent)

(Ann. rate,
percent)

858. Output
per man-hour,
total private
nonfarm

(1967=100)

1973

January
February
March

4-7
112 is

April
May
June

7.1

7.8

-2.6

...

July
August
September
October
November
December

112 io
• ••

iii is
. ..

mi 6

5.6

0.*6

...
• ••

• ••

7.2

...
...

-i.*7

6.1
...
...

6.3
...

iis

114 ii

...

oi<S

115 il
...

-2.*4
...

-1.7

5.3

-2.1

6.7

-0.4

-2.0

115 is

113 .*7

-1.3

114 is

...

-2i6

113.6

-2.1

113 i4

-2.2

111.6

-3^7

iiiio

-l.S

110.3

O.S

5.6

115.* 6
...

1974

January
February
March

110.1

April
May
June

110.1

July
August
September

109.2

p6.9

-3.1

-0.1

October
November
December

112.7

P9.2
-2il

-3-2

r-i.*2

-7.6

P5.9

-2.0

P7.5

...

pll.9

P7.9

112 is
••.
112.2

0.1

-1.9

...

. .
. .

riosi1?

r-1.9

p!4.6

pS.7

-5.1
110. S

109.4

..

1975

January
February
March

rO.6

rlOSis

P13.0

-0.2

P7.5

110.7

rlOS.9

April
May
June
July
August
September

. .

October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ©. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 58 and 59.
1
Percent changes are centered within the spans: 1-quarter changes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 4-quarter
changes are placed on the middle month of the 3d quarter.

ItCII JUNE 1975




93

OTHER KEY INDICATORS

({^CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE AND MAJOR COMPONENTS
Civilian labor force
Year
and
month

841. Total

(Thous.)

842. Employed

(Thous.)

Unemployment rates
843. Unemployed

844. Males
20 years and
over

(Thous.)

(Percent)

845. Females
20 years and
over

(Percent)

846. Both
sexes 16-19
years of age

(Percent)

848. Negro
and other races

847. White

(Percent)

(Percent)

1973

January
February
March

86,964
87,703
88,043

82,633
83,276
83,686

4,331
4,427
4,357

3.4
3.4
3.4

5.2
4.9
4.9

14.3
15.4
14.2

4.5
4.5
4.4

8.8
9.0
8.9

April
May
June

88,296
88,325
88,791

83,877
84,021
84,487

4,419
4,304
4,304

3.3
3.3
3.2

4.8
4.6
4.9

15.3
15.0
14.0

4.4
4.4
4.3

9.3
9.1
8.9

July
August
September

88,902
88,816
89,223

84,679
84,582
84,983

4,223
4,234
4,240

3.1
3.1
3.1

4.8
4.9
4.8

14.3
14.3
14.3

4.2
4.2
4.2

9.2
8.9
9.3

October
November
December

89,568
89,852
90,048

85,452
85,577
85,646

4,116
4,275
4,402

3.0
3.1
3.2

4.5
4.7
5.0

14.1
14.6
14.4

4.1
4.2
4.4

8.4
8.8
8.4

90,465
90,551
90,381

85,800
85,861
85,779

4,665
4,690
4,602

3.4
3.5
3.4

5.1
5.1
5.0

15.5
15.0
15.0

4.7
4.6
4.6

9.2
9.2
9.2

90,324
90,753
90,857

85,787
86,062
86,088

4,537
4,691
4,769

3.5
3.4
3.5

5.0
5.1
5.1

14.0
15.6
15.8

4.5
4.7
4.8

8.8
9.3
9.0

91,283
91,199
91,705

86,403
86,274
86,402

4,880
4,925
5,303

3.6
3.8
3.9

5.2
5.3
5.7

16.2
15.3
16.7

4.8
4.9
5.3

9.4
9.4
9.9

91,84491,708
91,803

86,304
85,689
85,202

5,540
6,019
6,601

4.3
4.6
5.3

5.6
6.6
7.2

17.1
17.4
18.1

5.5
5.9
6.4

10.9
11.6
12.5

January
February
March

92,091
91,511
91,829

84,562
84,027
83,849

7,529
7,484
7,980

6.0
6.2
6.8

8.1
8.1
8.5

20.8
19.9
20.6

7.5
7.4
8.0

13.4
13.5
14.2

April
May
June

92,262
92,940

84,086
84,402

8,176
8,538

7.0
7.3

8.6
8.6

20.4
21.8

8.1
8.5

14.6
14.7

1974

January
February
March

. . .

April
May
June
July
August
September

....

October
November
December
1975

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by <§). Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 60.

94




JUNE 1975

BCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

KB ACTUAL AND POTENTIAL GNP

Gross national product in constant (1958) dollars

Year
and
quarter

207. GNP gap (potential less actual)

206. Potential GNP

205. Actual GNP

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

(Ann. rate, bil. dol.)

770.9
786.6
798.1
814.2

806.8
814.7
822.8
830.9

+35.9
+28.1
+24.7
+16.7

832.8
837.4
840.8
845.7

839.1
847.3
855.7
864.1

+9 9
+14 9
+18.4

830.5
827 ol
823.1
804.0

872.6
881.2
889 9
898 7

+42.1
+54.1
+66 8

r 780.0

907.6

,,-i/l 97 A

1972

First quarter
. ...
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter
1973

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

+6.3

1974

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

....

-t-Q/

7

1975

First quarter
Second quarter
Third quarter
Fourth quarter

. .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 61.

Special Note on Potential GNP
The following note has been provided by the Council of Economic
Advisers regarding potential GNP.
The idea of potential GNP has had a long history. Its measurement by
the Council of Economic Advisers was started in the Economic Report of
the Council in 1962. Since that time, it has been used as a standard with
which to evaluate the past and future behavior of the economy.
Potential GNP purports to measure what the economy would produce
if all of its resources were fully utilized given the technology and
institutional arrangements that have existed at the time. "Fully utilized" has
never meant the kind of utilization that would prevail, say, under wartime
conditions but rather the utilization that could be expected under conditions
of reasonable price stability. This has always been less than complete
utilization. Under ordinary circumstances, some unemployment is present
because some workers are in the process of changing jobs; similarly, some old
plants are idle because market conditions do not permit them to operate
profitably. In the past, this degree of utilization has been reflected in an
overall unemployment rate of 4 percent. The rate of inflation associated
with that degree of unemployment has typically not been specified.
Furthermore, notions of what constitutes reasonable price stability can vary
over time.
Potential GNP is not something ordinarily observable. In practice, the

ItCII JUNE

1975




Council in 1962 made the judgment that the economy was operating at 100
percent of potential in mid-1955. Since that time potential GNP has been
estimated to grow at differing annual rates, as follows: 3.5 percent from the
first quarter of 1952 to the fourth quarter of 1962, 3.75 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1962 to the fourth quarter of 1965, 4 percent from the
fourth quarter of 1965 to the fourth quarter of 1969. At the beginning of
1970, the Council estimated that after the fourth quarter of 1969 potential
was growing at an annual rate of 4.3 percent, reflecting a rise of 1.8 percent
in the potential labor force, a 0.2 percent decline in annual hours of work,
and a 2.7 percent rise in output per manhour at potential. Drawing on a new
study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("The United States Economy in
1985", Monthly Labor Review, December 1973), the Council has lowered its
estimate of potential growth after 1969 to 4 percent per annum, reflecting
the following component changes: labor force, 1.8 percent; annual hours,
—0.3 percent; output per manhour, 2.5 percent.
Although potential is presented in the chart on page 61 and the table
above as a point estimate each quarter, it is clearly subject to a margin of
error and consequently, as with any measure of capacity, should be used
with considerable caution. There are uncertainties regarding both the growth
and the level of potential. It cannot be reasonably assumed that potential
grows in each year or quarter at the same annual rate. Some qualifications
about the measure of potential appear on pages 64-65 of the 1974 Economic
Report.

95

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

I^ANALYTICAL RATIOS

Year
and
month

850. Ratio,
output to capacity,
manufacturing

851. Ratio,
inventories to sales,
manufacturing
and trade

852. Ratio, manufacturers' unfilled
orders to shipments,
durable goods
industries

853. Ratio,
production of
business equipment
to consumer goods

(Percent)

(Ratio)

(Ratio)

(1967=100)

854. Ratio,
personal saving
to disposable
personal income

(Ratio)

860. Ratio,
help-wanted
advertising
to persons
unemployed

(Ratio)

857. Vacancy rate
in total rental
housing @

(Percent)

1973

1<,46

January
February
March

2.59
2.61
2.67

90.1
90.8
90.7

0.075

0.839
0.800
0.827

5.7

91.4
92.0
92.9

0.078

0.815
0.844
0.851

5is

1.48

2.73
2.79
2.89

p83.3

1.45
1.46
1.47

2.89
3.01
3.06

92.6
95.0
95.1

0.080

0.923
0.886
0.843

5!8

pS2*.6

1.45
1.44
1.49

3.00
3.04
3.14

95.2
95.7
96.6

0.095

0.890
0.836
0.771

5*.8

1.47
1.47
1.46

3.13
3.16
3.15

98.1
99.2
99.3

0.089

0.708
0.686
0.718

6.*2

1.46
1.47
1.50

3.21
3.22
3.30

100.4
100.0

0.074

0.761
0.730
0.724

63

1.47
1.48
1.51

3.38

101.0

3.44
3.45

99.2

0.066

6*.2

102.7

0.726
0.695
0.578

1.54
1.59
1.68

3.30
3.38
3.57

103.0
103.7
103.0

0.086

0.505
0.425
0.356

6!6

1.68
1.66

3.50

101.8
100.4
1-98.3

0.075

0.289
0.282
0.261

6.1

rl.70

3.44
3.48

pl.65
(M)

3-30
(NA)

r96.6
P93-4

p82.8
• ••

1.46
1.45

April
May
June

p83.3

1.4-6
1.2,6

July
August
September
October
November
December

....

1974

January
February
March

P8CL5
• ••

April
May
June

p80.i

July
August
September

P79.4
• ••

October
November
December

P75.7

99.5

1975

January
February
March

P68.*3

April
May
June

0.259
pO.248

July
August
September
October
November
December

. .

NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 62.

96




JUNE 1975

ItCII

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

QJDIFFUSION INDEXES
Leading Indicators
Year
and
month

D1. Average workweek
of production workers,
manufacturing
(21 industries)

D6. Value of manufacturers' new orders,
durable goods industries
(35 industries)

D11. Newly approved
capital appropriations^
The Conference Board
(17 industries)

1-month
span

1-month
span

1 -quarter
span

9-month
span

9-month
span

3-quarter
span

D34. Profits,
D19. Index of stock
mfg., FNCB
prices, 500 common stocks
about 1,000
(65-71 industries)2®
orporations)

D23. Index of industrial
materials prices
(13 industrial materials)

1 -quarter
span

1 -month
span

9-month
span

1 -month
span

9-month
span

1973

January
February
March

35.7
95.2
59.5

50.0
28.6
33.3

65.7
61.4
77.1

90.0
85.7
91.4

82

94

62

26.8
14.5
19.6

26.5
19.1
25.0

84.6
84.6
76.9

92.3
92.3
92.3

April
May
June

50.0
28.6
19.0

26.2
61.9
71.4

61.4
54.3
48.6

82.9
88.6
85.7

53
...

76

61

21.7
14.7
15.4

19.1
17.6
30.9

61.5
80.8
76.9

92.3
92.3
92.3

July
August
September

57ol

33.3
19.0
21.4

48.6
48.6
52.9

82.9
62.9
68.6

59

28.6
83.3

82
...

55

66.2
41.9
88.2

23.9
16.4
26.9

73.1
65.4
46.2

92.3
69.2
76.9

October
November
December

16.7
54.8
50.0

16.7
16.7

65.7
55.7
34.3

82.9
74.3
68.6

59
...
...

59

60
...
...

89.0

35.8
53.7
35.8

46.2
69.2
69.2

100.0

21.4
50.0
42.9

28.6
11.9

65.7
57.1
57.1

82.9
85.7
71.4

47

53

28.8
10.6

84.6
69.2
53.8

69.2
76.9
61.5

57.1
65.7
47.1

74.3
68.6
60.0

59

61.5
38.5
53.8

61.5
46.2
46.2

60.0
45.7
40.0

45.7
14.3
14-3

59

38.5
46.2
42.3

46.2
23.1
23.1

11.4

24

5.7
r!8.6

23.1
38.5
70.8

19.2
23.1

r9.5

45.7
18.6
17.1

23.1
23.1
23.1

P4-8

48.6

p20.0

62.0

53.8
42.3
38.5

9.5

7.5
13.4

84.6
76.9

1974

January
February
March
April
May
June

7.1

... .

92.9
57.1

July
August
September

14.3
50.0
35.7

October
November
December

40.5
11.9
28.6

7.1
7.1
0.0
19.0

9.5
0.0
47.6

0.0
4.8

59

...

65

58

85.8
50.7
91.0

9.7
27.3
39.4

41

P29

58
...

40

4.5
7.6
1.5
66.2
70.8

9.2

6.1
6.1
10.6

4.6
4.6
3.1
10.8

7.7

1975

January
February
March
April
May
June

16.7
16.7

P53

48

r45.2

51.4
34.3

95.4
93.8
86.2

r64.3
P59.5

r77.1
P45-7

69.2
61.0

11.5
3

15.4

46.2
38.5
3

61.5

July
August
September .
October
November
December
NOTE: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on 2d
month and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span; 1-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 2d quarter and 3-quarter indexes are placed on the 1st month of the 3d
quarter. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D19 which requires no adjustment and index D34 which is adjusted only for the index. Table E4 identifies the components
for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®.
Graphs of these series are shown on page 63.
-1> ml .
. , . -,

This is a copyrighted series used by permission; it may not be reproduced without written
permission from The Conference Board. Due to a reclassification of 76 companies by industry, data beginning with the 4th quarter
1974 (l-quarter span) and 3d quarter 1974 (3-quarter span) are not strictly comparable with earlier data. Figures on the previous
basis for the 4th quarter 1974 and 1st quarter 1975 (l-quarter span) are 29 and 53, respectively; and for the 3d and 4th quarters,
1974 (3-quarter span), they are 35 and 29, respectively. 2Based on 71 components in January 1973, on 69 components through April
1973, on 68 components through October 1973, on 67 components through April 1974, on 66 components through September 1974, and on
65 components thereafter. Component data are not shown in table E^, but are available from the source agency. sAverage for June 3,
10, and 17.

ItCII

JUNE 1975



97

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

|BDIFFUSION iNDEXES-con.
Leading Indicators-Con.
Year
and
month

D5. Initial claims for
unemployment insurance,
State programs, week including the 12th (47 areas)1
1-month
span

9-month
span

Roughly Coincident Indicators

D41 . Number of employees
on nonagriculural payrolls
(30 industries)
1 -month
span

6-month
span

D47. Index of industrial
production (24 industries)

D58. Index of wholesale
prices (22 manufacturing
industries)®

D54. Sales of retail stores
(23 types of stores)

1 -month
span

6-month
span

1-month
span

6-month
span

1-month
span

9-month
span

1973
70.0
86.7
83.3

86.7
81.7
85.0

79.2
91.7
62.5

83.3
79.2
83.3

95.5
97.7
95.5

100.0
95.5
95.5

87.0
76.1
65.2

100.0

3.6.2

68.1
66.0
74.5

53.2
36.2
57.4

38.3
68.1
57.4

70.0
65.0
81.7

83.3
78.3
68.3

50.0
77.1
54.2

79.2
77.1
79.2

95.5
90.9
84.1

95.5
95.5
95.5

30.4
69.6
56.5

100.0
100.0

July
August
September

63.8
46.8
44.7

57.4

68.3
70.0
51.7

80.0
86.7
85.0

70.8
70.8
62.5

79.2
70.8
54.2

75.0
91.0
77.3

90.9
95.5
95.5

73.9
34.8
73.9

69.6
47.8
91.3

October
November
December

46.8
72.3

38.3
29.8
23.4

86.7
75.0
60.0

88.3
71.7
68.3

45.8
62.5
45.8

45.8
35.4
45.8

79.5
86.4
90.9

95.5
90.9
90.9

65.2
56.5
43.5

87.0
95.7
87.0

January
February
March

67.0
74.5

April
May
June

...

2.1

8.5
8.5

97.8
95.7

87.0

1974

January
February
March

53.2
83.0
40.4

19.1
14.9
34.0

48.3
48.3
51.7

56.7
53.3
50.0

35.4
37.5
64.6

39.6
33.3
52.1

90.9
95.5
88.6

95.5
95.5
95.5

78.3
60.9
78.3

91.3
78.3
95.7

April
May
June

51.1
56.4
34-0

12.8
55.3
44.7

48.3
56.7
51.7

45.0
43.3
46.7

47.9
70.8
50.0

54.2
41-7
41.7

91.0
84.1
81.8

95.5
90.9
90.9

47.8
65.2
34-8

91.3
87.0
82.6

July
August
September

75.5
48.9
28.7

0.0
6.4
8.5

51.7
56.7
48.3

45.0
36.7
20.0

39.6
37.5
52.1

31.3
12.5
10.4

81.8
77.3
68.2

77.3
72.7
72.7

95.7
52.2
60.9

52.2
45-7
65.2

October
November
December

46.8

2.1
4.3
2.1

41.7
13.3
15.0

20.0
16.7
13-3

33.3
20.8

12.5

72.7
68.2
65.9

72.7
68.2
68.2

43.5
21.7
52.2

r60.9
r63.0

6.4

13.3
13.3

10.0

16.7

rlO.4

P13.3

P4.2

63.6
63.6
59.1

68.2
72.7

73-9
67.4

r20.0

r27.1
r!4.6

r51.7
p6l.7

r45.8
p60.4

8.5
53.2

8.3

r!2.5
r!2.5

82.6

1975

January
February
March

55.3
29.8
55.3

April
May
June

44-7
66.0

70.5
63-6

P73.9

r34.8
r65.2
p87.0

July
August
September
October
November . . .
December
NO! E: Figures are the percent of series components rising (half of the unchanged components are considered rising). Data are centered within spans: 1-month indexes are placed on the 2d
month, 6-month indexes are placed on the 4th month, and 9-month indexes are placed on the 6th month of span. Seasonally adjusted components are used except in index D58 which requires
no adjustment. Table E4 identifies the components for most of the indexes shown. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; and "NA", not available. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 63 and 64.
1
Component data are not available for publication and therefore are not shown in table E4.

98




JUNE 1975

BCD

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change
1975

1974

Diffusion index components
October

November

April1*

March

February

January

December

MayP

D1. AVERAGE WORKWEEK OF PRODUCTION WORKERS, MANUFACTURING 1
(Average weekly hours)

+

All manufacturing industries
Percent rising of 21 components

40.1

-

39.5

-

(12)

(40)

39.4

-

39.2

-

(17)

(17)

(29)

o

38.8

38.8

+

(45)

39.0

o

39.0
(60)

(64)

Durable goods industries:
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures

-

Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries

+ 41.4

41.4
38.9
38.6

+
-

41-9
38.5
37.7

-

41.8
38.1
37.3

+
-

42.1
37.9
36.4

+
-

41.2
38.6
36.3

+

41.2
r37.8
r36.5

o
+
+

41.2
38.3
37.3

o
+
+

41.2
38.5
37.4

o

-I-

42.2

-

41.2
41.7

-

41.0
41.1

-

40.9
40.5

-

40.2
40.2

-

r39.6
r39.9

+
-

40.3
39.4

o
-

40.3
38.8

-

41.0
42.4

-

40.4
42.3

+
-

40.6
42.1

-

40.4
41-8

-

-

39.7

+
-

r39.8
r40.8

+

39.7
41.0

-

39.5
40.6

Electrical equipment and supplies
Transportation equipment

+

39.7
40.6

-

39.4
39.5

+
o

39.5
39.5

o

39.4
39.5

-

39.0
39.1

+

-

r39.2
39.0

+
+

39.3
40.3

-

39.1
39.4

Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries

-

39.9
38.4

o
-

39.9
38.0

+

39.8
38.1

o

39.5
38.1

-

38.9
37.6

+
+

39.0
37.7

+
+

39.2
38.2

o
+

39.2
38.4

Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures

o
-

40.3
37.0

+

40.0
37.4

o
+

40.0
37.7

-

39.9
37.3

o
+

39.9
37.6

+

+

r40.3
39.1

-

39.9
38.5

+
-

40.0
36.9

Textile mill products
.
Apparel and other textile products

+

38.3
35.4

-

37.6
34-4

-

36.6
34-2

-

36.0
34.0

+
-

36.1
33.6

+
+

r36.8
r33.7

+
+

37.8
34.3

+
+

38.9
34-4

Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing

37.7

-

41.3
37.4

-

41.2
37.3

+

41.1
37.5

-

40.5
37.2

-

+

-

r40.4
36.9

+
-

40.5
36.8

+
-

41.1
36.7

.... +

-

41.4
42.6

-

41.2
42.2

+

41.0
42.3

-

40.6
42.0

-

40.5
41.9

-

40.4
41.8

-

40.2
41.0

+
+

40.5
42.0

+
+

40.8
37.0

-

39.8
36.6

-

39.5
36.1

o
-

39.5
35.7

-

38.7
35.3

-

r38.6

-

r35.1

+
+

39.2
36.4

+
+

39.6
36.7

Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical

.,*«..<.•..

.

. .

a. 2

Nondurable goods industries:

-

Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products

.

Rubber and plastic products n e e .
Leather and leather products

.

a. 7

D6. VALUE OF MANUFACTURERS' NEW ORDERS, DURABLE GOODS INDUSTRIES1
(Millions of dollars)

All durable goods industries

- 45,084

(46)

Percent rising of 35 components
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery, except electrical
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment
Other durable goods industries

. . .

- 43,182

- 37,842

- 36,062

(17)

(19)

(49)

-

5,071

+

4,720

7,426
4,439

-

6,837

+ 4,919

8,050
7,243

+

8,378
5,555

-

7,863
5,226

-

6,297
4,387

- 8,001
+ 5,192

-

7,559
4,926

-

- 10,012
- 7,946

-

9,775
7,833

-

+ 37,023

7,253
7,262

2

- 35,492

(51)

+ 38,751

+ 39,297

(77)

(34)

(46)

+ 5,378
+ . 4,784

-

4,961

+

-

4,449

+ 4,813

+

-

-

6,759
4,662

+

+ 4,931

+ 5,316

+ 7,165
- 5,145

+
-

-

7,705
6,956

+

8, 506

-

8,492

+

7,775

-

7,713

6,805

8,030
7,095

5,395

6,946

+ 5,919
4,863

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The "r" indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Data for most of the 35 diffusion index components are not available for publication; however, they are all included in the
totals and directions of change for six major industry groups shown here.
2

 JUNE 1975


99

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1974

1975

Diffusion index components
October

November

December

January

February

March

April

June1

May

D23. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS PRICES 2
Industrial materials price index (1967=100) . . . . -

204.4 - 196.4 - 183.4 - 180.1 + 181.1 + 182.3

+ 186.4 - 184.2

- 172.7

(Dollars)
Percent rising of 13 components
Copper scrap

....

Lead scrap
Steel scrap
Tin

.

Zinc
Burlap
Cotton 12-market average
Printcloth, average
Wool tops
Hides
Rosin

.

Rubber
Tallow

. (pound)
(kilogram)
(pound)
(kilogram)
(U.S. ton)
(metric ton)
(pound)
(kilogram)
(pound)
(kilogram)
(yard)
(meter)

0.480
. 1.058
..
- 0.112
0.247
..
. . -115.230
. . 127.018
3.664
. 8.078
..
0.390
. .+
0.860
..
0.280
. .o
0.306
..

(8)

(23)

(19)

-

+

+
-

(pound) . 0.475 (kilogram) . .
1.047
(yard) . . + 0.596 0.652
(meter) . .
- 2.152 (pound)
(kilogram) . .
4-744
(pound) . . 0.207 0.456
(kilogram) . .
- 42.778 (100 pounds)
94-308
(100 kilograms) . .
(pound)
- 0.314 0.692
(kilogram) . .
- 0.141 +
(pound)
(kilogram) . .
0.311

0.469 - 0.431 - 0.397
0.950
0.875
1.034
0.098 + 0.099
0.106 0.218
0.216
0.234
112.821 - 86.762 - 75.758
83.508
95.638
124.363
3.508 + 3.700
3.681 8.157
7.734
8.115
0.393 - 0.391 + 0.394
0.862
0.869
0.866
0.260 0.235 + 0.236
0.258
0.257
0.284
0.450 - 0.413
0.910
0.992
0.576
0.586 0.630
0.641
2.088
2.092 4.612
4.603
0.197 - 0.186
0.410
0.434
42.056 - 41-438
92.717
91.354
0.307
0.279 +
0.677
0.615
0.146 - 0.117
0.258
0.322

-

0.388
0.855
+ 0.579
0.633
- 1.967
4.336
- 0.175
0.386
+ 42.181
92.992
- 0.288
0.635
+ 0.123
0.271

+
-

o
+
-

+

0.399
0.880
0.091
0.20T
75-744
83.493
3.723
8.208
0.391
0.862
0.239
0.261

+ 0.401
0.884
- 0.577
0.631
- 1.802
3.973
- 0.166
0.366
-42.097
92.807
+ 0.294
0.648
- 0.119
0.262

+

0.400
0.882
0.086
0.190
72.206
79.593
3.514
7.747
0.379
0.836
0.227
0.248

-

0.406
0.895
+ 0.583
0.638
-1- 1.860
4.101
-1- 0.201
0.443
- 41.782
92.113
- 0.287
0.633
- 0.108
0.238

+

-

•+

-

+
-

0.399
0.880
0.081
0.179
84.830
93.508
3.382
7.456
0.376
0.829
0.210
0.230

0.424
0.935
+ 0.590
0.645
- 1.849
4.076
+ 0.227
0.500
- 40.972
90.327
+ 0.291
0.642
+ 0.116
0.256

(62)

(38)

(46)

(38)

(42)

(54)

0.384
0.847
0.073
0.161
76.961
84.834
3.298
7.271
0.378
0.833
0.198
0.217

-

+ 0.431
0.950
- 0.581
0.635
+ 2.143
4.724
+ 0.255
0.562
- 39.068
86.129
- 0.275
0.606
+ 0.123
0.271

-

-1-

0.368
0.811
0.049
0.108
- 71.379
78.681
+
3.397
7.489
+
0.383
0.844
+
0.200
0.219
0.430
0.948
+
0.592
0.647
- 1.996
4.400
+
0.257
0.567
- 30.461
67.154
+
0.286
0.631
+ 0.129
0.284

D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS 3
(Thousands of employees)
All nonagricultural payrolls

+ 78,865

Percent rising of 30 components .
Ordnance and accessories
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and fixtures
Stone clay and glass products
Primary metal industries
Fabricated metal products
Machinery except electrical
Electrical equipment
Transportation equipment
Instruments and related products
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Food and kindred products
Tobacco manufactures
Textile mill products
Apparel and other textile products
Paper and allied products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum and coal products
Rubber and plastic products, n e e
Leather and leather products

(42)

86
514
421
541
+ 1,084
- 1,128
+ 1,508
- 1,354
+ 1,285
329
343
- 1,174
+
64
850
- 1,136
536
667
625
... +
124
542
237
o

.

- 78,404

- 77,690
(15)

(13)

85
491
404
531
- 1,068
- 1,103
- 1,494
- 1,299
- 1,249
324
332
- 1,160
62
827
- 1,112
528
658
617
o
124
517
o
237

•+

86
481
390
516
- 1,035
- 1,059
- 1,467
- 1,242
- 1,176
318
316
- 1,150
+
63
797
- 1,059
516
656
602
123
493
231

- 77,227
(13)

85
463
371
499
- 1,011
- 1,011
- 1,440
- 1,208
- 1,126
314
310
- 1,132
+
66
760
- 1,032
504
654
589
117
477
223

- 76,708 -r76,368 o r76,381 4 76,443
(20)

(13)

o
85
449
- 360
- 486
- 969
- 992
- 1,404
- 1,152
- 1,060
- 305
- 305
- 1,125
65
- 740
- 1,009
- 489
- 645
- 580
- 114
- 446
- 216

o
+
-

+
-

o

85
r452
r354
478
r940
976
1,380
rl,135
rl,100
r298
301
rl,125
63
r737
-P995
r478
639
568
119

+
- r431
r212

(52)

o
+
+
o
+
o
+

+
+
o
+
+

r85
r45$
r357
r477
r917

r976
rl,351
rl,123
rl,101
r295
301
rl,131
62
r755
rl,013
r475
635
r562
119
r437
213

(62)

85
468
359
481
902
963
- 1,332
o 1,123
+ 1,106
290
+
305
+ 1,136
o
62
+
774
+ 1,020
*
478
629
+
563
116
+
442
+
219
o
+
+
+

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The "r" indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

•'•Average
for June 3, 10, and 17.
2
Series components are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The industrial materials price index is not
seasonally adjusted. Components are converted to metric units by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
3
Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.

100




JUNE 1975

IIUI

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1974

October

1975

December

November

January

Marchr

February

Aprilr

MayP

D41. NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES ON NONAGRICULTURAL PAYROLLS-Con. 1
(Thousands of employees)
+
692
3,911
+
4,699
+
4,287
- 12,873
+ 4,185
+ 13,705
+
2,748
+ 11,783

Mining
Contract construction
Transportation and public utilities
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate
Service
Federal Government
State and local government

662
+
693
3,798
- 3,861 4,668
4,697 4,267
4,283 - 12,765 - 12,645
- 4,183 o 4,182
+ 13,721 + 13,734
2,738
2,746 + 11,822 + 11,850

+
700
3,789
4,607
4,242
- 12,621
- 4,173
+ 13,747
2,733
+ 11,897

706
+
702 +
3,486
3,596 - 4,561 - 4,512
4,222 - 4,211
- 12,610 - 12,588
- 4,164 - 4,157
+ 13,771 - 13,754
2,732
o
2,733 + 12,052 + 12,076

o
+
+
+
+
+

•702
3,470
4,511
4,214
12,604
4,164
13,758
2,729
12,128

+
+
+
+
+

705
3,435
4,499
4,211
12,639
4,160
13,788
2,732
12,184

047. INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION1
(1967=100)
All industrial production

- 124.8 2

Percent rising of 24 components

Nondurable manufactures:
Textiles apparel and leather
Textile mill products
Apparel products
Leather and products
Paper and printing
Paper and products
Printing and publishing
Chemicals, petroleum, and rubber
Chemicals and products
Petroleum products
Rubber and plastics products
Foods and tobacco .
.
.
Foods
Tobacco products
Mining:
Coal
Oil and gas extraction
Metal stone and earth minerals
Metal mining
Stone and earth minerals

-

+
126>)o - 121.0
- 129.6 - 128.2

117.4

-

108*.6
124.1

132 '.5
137!4 - 135.1 124-0 - 121.7 - 116.3
83.6
+ 102.1
93.7
- 142.0 + 142.3 - 139.5

- 122.9
- 109.3

- 113)8
- 105.2

-

116!9
101.3

125 ".5 - 120.5
- 146.9 - 136.9

- 120.4
- 135.7

119-1 + 102.8 70.6
+

-

112)8
100.1
74.7

-

(8)

(21)

(33)

Durable manufactures:
Primary and fabricated metals
Primary metals
Fabricated metal products
Machinery and allied goods
Nonelectrical machinery
Electrical machinery
Transportation equipment .
I nstruments
Lumber, clay, and glass
Clay, glass, and stone products
Lumber and products
Furniture and miscellaneous . . .
Furniture and fixtures
Miscellaneous manufactures

121.7

113.7 -

- 107.2 - 118.2 -

rl23)6
r!06.6

139.1 -

r!34.2

-

rl07)8
r99.6

77.1

78.9

-

115'.3
99.9

98*.6
112.8

119-2
- 104.6
+ 78.6
- 130.6
- 104.9
99.1

- 110.6 o rllO.6 - 106.7
- 127.1
- 128.9 - ri.28.0

102)9

95)6
94.0
66.1

98.0
69.7

+

- 109.5

r930 + 96)6
z-92.6
86.4
r66.7 64.1

- 109.2
(60)

(46)

(15)

rl02.1
rl!3.7 -

-

- 126)7
- 111.5

- 109.8

(27)

(17)

-

111.2

95)l

-

112.3

-

89*.7
111.3

- 116.7 - 112.5
103-4 + 103.9
+ 83.1 o
83.1
+ 130.8 - 127.7
+ 103.4
(NA)
- 104)5
(NA)
+ 99.7
+ 119.2
(NA)
106.* 5
(MA)
+ 127.7
+ 90.3
+ 99.1
+

(NA)
71.9

+

94.4
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

- 102.7

. .

- 133)9
- 111.9

-

1240

110.0

- 116.1
- 109.8

114.3 - 109)5 - 104)5
104.1 + 104.7 - 103.4

143)l
- 155.9 1480
+ 125.4 + 127.0 - 125.8
- 161.8 - 155.7 - 148.9

- 139)6 -f 126.8 - 135.4 -

- 122.4 + 125.4 + 125.7
96.2
+ 110.3 - 103.8

- 121.2 + r!22.3 - 122.0
+ 104.7 + 108.4 - 102.6

67.6
- 110.3
+ 85.3
. . . + 107.4 - 106.4 - 103.6

. . .

-

134-7
+ 141.4 - 136)8 + 107.5 + 109.8 - 106.4

+ 111.3
- 102.9

1-134-6 - 134)4
r!23.7 - 123.4
z-132.0 - 127.2

+ rl!7.5 o 117.5
+ r!06.0 + 106.8

- 133)8 + 109.0 -

13l)l - 125.2
rl06.1 - 105.1

+
106)2
- 100.9
-

(NA)

- 99.6
+ 132.1
+ 134.0
+ 122.3

133)i
122.2
(NA)
+ 131.5
+ 120.9 + 122.5
+ 122.4 + 124.1
(NA)

(NA)

- 112.0 + 119.1
+ 107.3 - 106.2
- 106.9
(NA)
- 124.7
(NA)
- 102.2

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The "r" indicates revised;
"p", preliminary; and "NA", not available.

•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency.
Where actual data for separate industries are not available, estimates are used to compute the percent rising.

2

IICII JUNE 1975



101

ANALYTICAL MEASURES

E4 Selected Diffusion Index Components: Basic Data and Directions of Change—Con.
1975

1974

Diffusion index components
October

January

February

March

April

+ 45,955

+ 46,819

- r45,926

+ r46,495

December

November

May

D54. SALES OF RETAIL STORES 1
(Millions of dollars)

All retail sales

-

Percen* rising of 23 components

-

+
+
-

Variety stores
Men's and boys' wear stores
Women's apparel accessory stores
Shoe stores

+
. .

Furniture home furnishings stores
Household appliance TV radio stores
Lumber yards, building materials dealers . . .
Hardware stores

+
. . -

+

+
+
+

9,698
3,623
4,712
513

+
+
-

753
477
817
321

1,282
638
1,517
440

44,469

+ 44,821
(52)

(22)

(44)

Grocery stores
.
. . . .
Eating and drinking places
Department stores
Mail-order houses (department store merchandise)

Passenger car and other automotive dealers
Tire battery accessory dealers
Gasoline service stations
Drug and proprietary stores
Liquor stores

4-5,303

-

6,814 700
3,507 1,429 891

(67)

(74)

9,740
3,715
4,627
499

- 9,610
+ 3,721
- 4,608
415

+
+
+

9,945
3,784
4,497
485

+
+
+

732
450
766
307

684
444
800
303

+
+
+
+

720
473
844
323

+
+

+

746
518
828
344

+

r739
r506
820

47,516

(65)

(87)

+
+

9,765
3,887
4,835
481

(NA)
(N/0

+

(NA)
(N/0
(NA)
(NA)

(35)

9,925 + rlO,058
3,828 - r3,821
4,743 + r4,852
r456
489

+

r310

+
+

747
503
830
328

(M)
(NA)

1,240
629
1,465
427

-

1,193
617
- 1,412
+
431

+
+
+
+

1,237
625
1,424
471

- 1,235
+
633
- 1,415
+
477

+
-

rl,199
r660
rl,355
r464

+
+
+
+

1,247
666
1,418
476

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

6,254
665
3,397
1,402
884

+
+
+
+
+

+
+
+
-

6,971
725
3,465
1,436
871

+
+
o
+
+

-

7,015
736
3,544
1,421
882

(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)
(NA)

6,668
690
3,399
1,461
886

7,580
745
3,465
1,44-9
882

+
+
+

r6,598 +
r738
r3,497 +
rl,488 r903

- 168.0

-

167.8

D58. INDEX OF WHOLESALE PRICES, MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES3
(1967=100)
All manufacturing industries

+

Percent rising of 22 components

165.2

+

166.2

+ 166.9

+

(66)

168.2

+ 168.7

+

169.5

(73)

(68)

- 169.4 + 135.5 +
+ 162.2 +
+ 199.0 +

165.8
136.9
163.4
199.7

165.4
137.7
164.3
196.7

+
+
+

164.7
138.8
168.5
199.4

+ 169.3
+ 139.1
+ 170.3
+ 200.5

+
+
+

169.6 +
138.5 o
170.8 +
200.6 +

174.9
138.5
173.0
201.1

+
+
+
-

183.0
138.6
173-1
200.6

Nonferrous metals
Fabricated structural metal products
Miscellaneous metal products
General purpose machinery and equipment

+
+
+

190.8
182.0
174.1
166.1

+
+
+

187.2 - 181.8
182.5 + 182.9
175.6 + 176.7
168.9 + 170.9

+
+
+

178.8
185.4
178.3
172.6

- 176.1
+ 189 .'4
+ 178.7
+ 173.9

+
+
+

173.9
189.9
180.0
174.8

+
+

172.2
188.4
180.1
176.1

+
+

171.1
188.8
179.4
177.6

Miscellaneous machinery .
.
. .
Electrical machinery and equipment
Motor vehicles and equipment
Miscellaneous products

+
+
+
+

149.5
132.4
138.1
137.1

+
+
+
+

152.7 + 153.1
135.4 + 136.5
138.9 + 140.7
140.7 + 142.4

+
+
+

158.1
138.1
140.2
145.5

+
+
+
+

158.6
138.7
141.5
146.4

-" 158.5
+
139.1
+ 143.0
+
14.6.8

+
+
o
+

160.3
139.5
143.0
147.3

+
+
+

161.4
140.1
142.9
147.5

+
+

183.5
173-4
112.3
135.1
133.1

+
+

189.7 - 188.2
170.8 - 165.7
107.3 o 107.3
134-2 - 132.3
133.6 + 133.7

+

186.4
162.0
103.8
130.7
133.8

o
-

182.6
158.0
103.8
129.3
133.6

-

177.3 +
156.0 +
102.0 +
.121.7 o
133.3 -

179.4
158.1
103.5
121.7
133.0

+
+
+
-

179.0
162.6
107.0
123.0
132.2

+
+
+
+
-

166.0
168.5
244-3
147.5
145.2

+
+
+
-

166.9
172.9
238.2
148.5
144.5

+ 167.2
+ 174-0
+ 238.5
+ 149.4
- 143.2

+
+
+
+
-

169.8
176.0
242.3
149.6
142.1

o 169.8
+ 178.1
- 240.7
+ 150.0
- 141.7

+
+
+
+

170.0 181.8 +
242.3 +
149.7 143.2 +

169.7
182.4
243.6
149.4
147.5

+
+
+

169.8
182.1
246.1
148.9
147.7

Durable goods:
Lumber and wood products
Furniture and household durables
Nonmetallic minerals products
Iron and steel

Nondurable goods:
Processed foods and feeds
Cotton products
Wool products
Manmade fiber textile products
Apparel
Pulp, paper and allied products
Chemicals and allied products
Petroleum products, refined
Rubber and plastic products
Hides, skins, leather, and related products

+
+
-

(64)

(70)

(59)

(64)

(64)

NOTE: To facilitate interpretation, the month-to-month directions of change are shown along with the numbers: (+) = rising, (o) = unchanged, and (-) = falling. The "r" indicates revised;
, preliminary; and "NA", not available.

•'•Data are seasonally adjusted by the source agency. Data for the latest month shown are preliminary.
diffusion index includes estimates for six types of stores not shown separately.
Data are not seasonally adjusted.

2
The
3

102



JUNE 1975

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

EKlNDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

Q CONSUMER PRICES
781. United
States,
index of
consumer
prices®

133. Canada,
index of
consumer
prices®

132. United
Kingdom,
index of
consumer
prices®

135. West
Germany,
index of
consumer
prices®

136. France,
index of
consumer
prices®

138. Japan,
index of
consumer
prices®

137. Italy,
index of
consumer
prices®

47. United
States,
index of
industrial
production

123. Canada,
index of
industrial
production

122. United
Kingdom,
index of
industrial
production

126. France,
index of
industrial
production

1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

January
February
March

128
129
130

125
126
126

144
144
145

126
127
128

136
136
137

138
140
143

127
128
130

122
123
124

139
142
142

120
123
124

150
151
146

April
May
June

131
132
132

128
129
130

148
149
150

129
129
130

138
139
140

145
148
148

131
133
134

124
125
126

142
142
144

121
121
122

144
153
151

133
135
136

131
133
133

151
151
152

130
130
131

141
142
143

150
151
155

135
136
137

127
126
127

143
139
142

123
123
123

153
153
150

137
138
138

134
135
136

155
157
158

132
133
134

145
146
147

154
156
160

138
139
141

127
128
126

144
146
146

125
123
119

153
154
148

January
February
March

no
142
143

137
138
139

161
163
165

135
137
137

150
152
153

167
173
174

144
147
149

125
125
125

148
149
150

113
115
119

157
157
153

April
May
June

144
146
147

140
143
144

170
173
175

138
139
139

156
158
159

179
179
181

151
154
157

125
126
126

148
147
147

121
121
122

155
157
157

July
August
September

148
150
152

146
147
148

176
176
177

139
140
140

161
163
165

184
185
189

160
163
168

126
125
126

146
146
145

124
123
121

rl6l
rl6l
152

October
November
December

153
154
155

149
151
152

182
185
188

141
142
142

167
168
169

193
194
195

171
174
176

125
122
117

145
143
142

121
121
115

152
147
143

January
February
March

156
157
158

153
154
155

192
196
200

144
144
145

171
173
174

196
196
198

178
181
181

114
111
110

139
140

119

144
144

April
May
June

159
159

156
157

207

146
147

183

rllO

Year
and
month

1973

July
August
September

.. .

October
November
December
1974

1975

(NA)

176
(NA)

203
(NA)

(NA)

p!09

r!40
P139
(NA)

r!20
pl!9

p!39

(NA)

(M)

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 66 and 67.

BCII JUNE 1975




103

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

^STOCK PRICES

HilNDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION-Con.
128. Japan,
index of
industrial
production

121.0ECD,1
European
countries,
index of
industrial
production

127. Italy,
index of
industrial
production

19. United
States,
index of
stock
prices, 500
common
stocks®

143. Canada,
index of
stock
prices®

142. United
Kingdom,
index of
stock
prices®

146. France, 145. West
index of
Germany,
stock
index of
stock
prices®
prices®

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

January
February
March

150
156
151

186
186
193

142
1M
142

124
123
123

129
124
122

146
145
143

182
168
164

April
May
June

153
152
154

190
196
197

142
144
145

132
134
138

120
117
114

142
135
135

July
August
September

147
154
156

197
200
201

144
146
147

141
131
139

115
113
115

October
November
December

155
156
156

205
207
203

148
148
146

141
139
138

January
February
March

154
153
152

202
202
199

147
147
147

148
143
144

April
May
June

152
152
153

196
200
193

148

150
149
151

194
188
188

147
150
143

185
182
173

r!38

140
r!39
P146

166
165
pl67

r!38
p!40

(NA)

(NA)

(NA)

125. West
Germany,
index of
industrial
production

Year
and
month

148. Japan,
index of
stock
prices®

147. Italy,
index of
stock
prices®

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

(1967=100)

174
173
185

167
165
173

387
364
363

83
84
93

168
167
171

191
196
190

174
161
157

344
339
338

97
109
125

141
144
146

161
156
154

183
179
180

146
144
140

355
351
333

118
105
107

119
111
103

153
148
134

159
151
126

183
166
166

141
135
126

325
313
285

109
108
97

104
102
106

139
141
146

126
124
116

173
167
153

131
129
126

293
308
304

106
108
112

r!48
r!45
r!47

101
98
98

136
123
122

112
112
103

145
134
134

128
125
120

305
303
306

116
106
97

148
146
147

r!4A
r!31

145

90
83
74

118
113
101

94
82
74

135
125
106

113
113
107

295
270
261

90
88
76

145
143

r!37
r!30
r!24

76
78
73

101
97
93

71
65
58

114
113
117

104
106
110

239
245
255

74
79
72

r!29
p!31
(NA)

79
87
91

103

177
134
144

pU.6

109

69
99
109

250
271
284

72
80
82

112
rpl!3

115
126

155
rp!57

p!40
P138

p!55

p!31

290
rp295
p293

p80
p78
p76

1973

1974

July
August
September

.

...

October
November
December

ua

150

1975

January
February
March
April
May
June

138

92
98
P99

rl!2

pl!3

p!29

p!24
p!34

July
August
September
October
November
December
NOTE: Series are seasonally adjusted except those series that appear to contain no seasonal movement. Unadjusted series are indicated by ®. Series numbers are for identification only and
do not reflect series relationships or order. Complete titles and sources are shown at the back of the book. The "r" indicates revised; "p", preliminary; "e", estimated; "a", anticipated; and
"NA", not available.
Graphs of these series are shown on pages 67 and 68.

•'•Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

104




JUNE 1975

ItCII

APPENDIXES
B. Current Adjustment Factors
19 75

19 74
Series
July
5. Average weekly initial claims, State
unemployment insurance
13 New business incorporations1

33. Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies1 4 . .
37. Purchased materials, percent of companies
reporting higher inventories
62. Index of labor cost per unit of output,
manufacturing3
72. Commercial and industrial loans outstanding . .
616 Defense Department obligations, total
621. Defense Department obligations,
procurement
..
625 Military prime contract awards in U.S
D34. Profits, manufacturing (FNCB) 5

Sept.

115.0

83.5

74-5

105.0

94.3

90.8

15. Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales,
manufacturing2
17. Ratio, price to unit labor cost index,
manufacturing3

Aug.

Oct.
83.7
100.8

681

103-5
99.2

138.4

143-9

109.5

92.7

88.6

79.9

93.6

107.0

107.3

105.6

95.5

108.5

99.0

-281

-368

510

-939

-1206

93.0

89.3

97.7

89.7

98.7

99.5

99.9

100.0

100.4

100.0

99.7

98.9

99.4

104.6

92.5

83-7

104.2

118.2

97.1

115.0

98.5

102.4

100.1

84.9

103.3

901

101.3
99.5

107.4

100.4
-81

3

May

97.0

98.7

113.1

-13

103.8

99.0

100.5

112.3

Feb.

99.9

101.1

101.0

69.4

Jan.

98.2

97.4
100.9

Dec.

86.5

Mar.

Apr.

Nov.

June

86.4
104.8

107.5

99.8

99.9

-349

-114

102.5

107.9

107.9

100.4

100.8

100.4

100.3

99.1

98.9

98.8

99.8

101.0

87.8

107.8

91.5

91.0

92.9

81.6

129.8

133.1

104.0

84.9

80.5

62.0

164.0

93.2

70.7

69.1

175.6

96.6

-8

99.2

83.3

100.8

287

104.4

99.8
101.2

101.1

910

103.8

99.8
100.9

18

NOTE: These series are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis or the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., rather than by the source agency. Seasonal adjustments
are kept current by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Seasonally adjusted data prepared by the source agency will be used in Business Conditions Digest whenever they are available. For a description of the method used to compute these factors, see Bureau of the Census Technical Paper No. 15, The X-11 Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program.
1

Factors are the products of seasonal and trading-day factors.
Quarterly series; factors are placed in the middle month of the quarter.
This series is derived from seasonally adjusted components; it is further adjusted by these factors to remove residual seasonal variation.
4
These quantities, in millions of dollars, are subtracted from the month-to-month net change in the unadjusted monthly totals to yield the seasonally adjusted net change. These factors are
computed by the additive version of the X-11 variant of the Census Method 11 seasonal adjustment program.
5
1-quarter diffusion index; factors are placed in the first month of the quarter. The unadjusted diffusion index is computed and these factors, computed by the additive version of the X-11
variant of the Census Method II seasonal adjustment program, are subtracted to yield the seasonally adjusted index.
2

3




105

C. Historical Data for Selected Series
This appendix provides historical data (back to 1945 if available) for
selected BCD series. Data are shown for series which (a) have recently
been added to the report, (b) have recently been revised, or (c) have not
been shown here for a long time. By keeping these tables, the user can
acquire a complete set of historical data. Each time a series is included
in this appendix, it is footnoted to indicate the extent of any revisions
since it was last shown. See the "Alphabetical Index—Series Finding
Guide" for the latest issue in which historical data were published for

each series. Current figures are shown in the basic data tables each
month and may be used to update these historical tables.
Series shown here are seasonally adjusted except for those, indicated
by ©, which appear to contain no seasonal movement. Official source
agency annual figures are shown if available. Such figures are often
derived from data with more digits or from data which have not been
seasonally adjusted; therefore, they may differ slightly from annual
figures computed from the monthly or quarterly data shown.

Quarterly

Monthly
Year

Annual

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

IQ

9. CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED FOR COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS1
(MILLION SQUARE FEET OF FLOOR SPACE)

II Q

IIIQ

IV Q

TOTAL FOR PERIOD

...
«*'

1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.

27.99
18.80
17.93
42.80
16.62
24.17
26.79

29.14
17.52
17.29
36.59
19.21
28.67
22.22

22.51
19.66
23.84
30.42
19.71
24.35
23.99

25.63
19.16
27.04
27.22
21.44
26.66
27.18

30.12
16.54
28.14
25.27
19.26
29.9?
29.81

25.08
17.67
27.86
24.71
23.86
19.44
29.77

31.41
16.22
27.47
22.33
21.61
39.18
25.97

22.89
12.56
34.46
22.32
24.16
25.90
27.62

23.39
18.95
31.05
25.26
21.34
27.37
28.28

23.18
16.90
31.55
19.42
24.32
31.05
31.17

20.72
17.82
34.19
18.21
26.95
31.30
26.15

18.28
18.09
27.93
25.74
34.00
18.45
31.62

79.64
55.98
59.06
109.81
55.54
77.19
73.00

80.83
53.37
83.04
77.20
64.56
76.02
86.76

77.69
47.73
92.98
69.91
67.11
92.45
81.87

62.18
52.81
93.67
63.37
85.27
80.80
88.94

300)34

1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.

32.13
33.99
41.22
31.53
31.93
37.32
36.21
38.70
44.61
50.88

35.09
38.65
40.20
29.91
32.16
36.93
36.49
42.75
45.11
49.10

32.04
42.51
37.83
29.63
35.11
36.73
37.49
45.90
39.42
48.65

31.51
42.21
31.94
26.25
41.92
38.73
35.62
42.72
40.23
49.12

31.37
34.17
35.90
28.70
38.55
39.25
35.16
44.64
47.00
46.66

34.64
35.68
40.66
25.54
34.19
40.31
36.73
41.16
51.39
49.99

37.49
35.31
33.55
30.12
37.64
38.87
36.57
40.56
45.78
53.40

35.49
37.06
33.38
34.02
34.14
39.38
39.32
42.69
44,93
49.28

40.27
36.81
31.51
30.33
38.38
38.96
38.73
40.96
43.88
51.21

34.45
30.90
30.98
33.07
41.44
39.44
33.88
41.08
50.81
53.46

37.36
35.91
32.67
30.76
36.03
39.44
41.61
42.20
43.73
52.57

35.17
33.31
32.73
29.06
39.44
38.15
41.69
41.89
45.43
57.91

99.26
115.15
119.25
91.07
99.20
110.98
110.19
127.35
129.14
148.63

97.52
112.06
108.50
80.49
114.66
118.29
107.51
128.52
138.62
145.97

113.25
109.18
98.44
94.47
110.16
117.21
114.62
124.21
134.59
153.89

106.98
100.12
96.38
92.89
116.91
117.03
117.18
125.17
139.97
163,94

417.01
436.51
422.57
358.92
440.93
463.51
449.50
505.25
542.32
612.43

1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.

53.00
62.29
49.09
64.51
94.43
88.86
54.37
60.61
87.48

55.12
70.42
57.84
61.39
69.98
80.95
50.04
66.25
85.89

54.77
67.99
56.14
66.61
63.50
67.11
62.58
67.13
84.71

57.74
68.28
58.27
47.09
65.82
64.00
57.74
66.96
83.61

57.52
64.00
54.72
66.96
85.60
58.19
61.26
83.01
83.73

57.72
65.85
62.30
66.35
80.37
54.47
65.00
71.50
85.79

56.68
63.54
56.72
71.65
73.70
70.45
61.77
68.44
95.42

52.00
63.52
61.66
66.15
71.96
61.04
54.62
72.05
89.80

62.97
64.40
60.45
61.59
68.9Q
60.16
68.09
73.35
83.77

60.55
54.76
58.42
79.63
79.96
51.71
63.45
75.61
91.60

61.74
64.42
63.17
69.70
64.31
54.00
66.41
79.93
87.47

64.13
60.21
64.08
71.47
86.89
54.69
66.83
79.42
69.51

162.89
200.70
163.07
192.51
227.91
236.92
166.99
193.99
258.08

172.98
198.13
175.29
180.40
231.79
176.66
184.00
221.47
253.13

171.65
191.46
178.83
199.39
214.56
191.65
184.48
213.84
268.99

186.42
179.39
185.67
220.80
231.16
160.40
196.69
234.96
248.58

693.94
769.68
702.86
793.10
905.42
765.63
732.16
864.26
1028.78

9. CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED FOR COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS 2
(MILLION SQUARE METERS OF FLOOR SPACE)

209.89
328.75
320.29
272.48
326.46
330.57

TOTAL FOR PERIOD

t*t

1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.

2.60
1.75
1.67
3.98
1.54
2.25
2.49

2.71
1.63
1.61
3.40
1.78
2.66
2.06

2.09
1.83
2.21
2.83
1.83
2.26
2.23

2.38
1.78
2.51
2.53
1.99
2.48
2.53

2.80
1.54
2.61
2.35
1.79
2.78
2.77

2.33
1.64
2.59
2.30
2.22
1.81
2.77

2.92
1.51
2.55
2.07
2.01
3.64
2.41

2.13
1.17
3.20
2.07
2.24
2.41
2.57

2.17
1.76
2.88
2.35
1.98
2.54
2.63

2.15
1.57
2.93
1.80
2.26
2.88
2.90

1.92
1.66
3.18
1.69
2.50
2.91
2.43

1.70
1.68
2.59
2.39
3.16
1.71
2.94

7.40
5.21
5.49
10.21
5.15
7.17
6.78

7.51
4.96
7.71
7.18
6.00
7.07
8.07

7.22
4.44
8.63
6.49
6.23
8.59
7.61

5.77
4.91
8.70
5.88
7.92
7.50
8.27

27 '.90
19.52
30.53
29.76
25.30
30.33
30.73

1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.

2.98
3.16
3.83
2.93
2.97
3.47
3.36
3.60
4.14
4.73

3.26
3.59
3.73
2.78
2.99
3.43
3.39
3.97
4.19
4.56

2.98
3.95
3.51
2.75
3.26
3.41
3.48
4.26
3.66
4.52

2.93
3.92
2.97
2.44
3.89
3.60
3.31
3.97
3.74
4.56

2.91
3.17
3.34
2.67
3.58
3.65
3.27
4.15
4.37
4.35

3.22
3.31
3.78
2.37
3.18
3.74
3.41
3.82
4.77
4.64

3.48
3.28
3.12
2.80
3.50
3.61
3.40
3.77
4.25
4.96

3.30
3.44
3.10
3.16
3.17
3.66
3.65
3.97
4.17
4.58

3.74
3.42
2.93
2.82
3.57
3.62
3.60
3.81
4.08
4.76

3.20
2.87
2.88
3.07
3.85
3.66
3.15
3.82
4.72
4.97

3.47
3.34
3.04
2.86
3.35
3.66
3.87
3.92
4.06
4.88

3.27
3.09
3.04
2.70
3.66
3.54
3.87
3.89
4.22
5.38

9.22
10.70
11.07
8.46
9.22
10.31
10.23
11.83
11.99
13.81

9.06
10.40
10.09
7.48
10.65
10.99
9.99
11.94
12.88
13.55

10.52
10.14
9.15
8.78
10.24
10.89
10.65
11.55
12.50
14.30

9.94
9.30
8.96
8.63
10.86
10.86
10.89
11.63
13.00
15.23

38.74
40.54
39.27
33.35
40.97
43.05
41.76
46.95
50.37
56.89

1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.

4.92
5.79
4.56
5.99
8.77
8.26
5.05
5.63
8.13

5.12
6.54
5.37
5.70
6.50
7.52
4.65
6.15
7.98

5.09
6.32
5.22
6.19
5.90
6.23
5.81
6.24
7.87

5.36
6.34
5.41
4.37
6.11
5.95
5.36
6.22
7.77

5.34
5.95
5.08
6.22
7.95
5.41
5.69
7.71
7.78

5.36
6.12
5.79
6.16
7.47
5.06
6.04
6.64
7.97

5.27
5.90
5.27
6.66
6.85
6.54
5.74
6.36
8.86

4.83
5.90
5.73
6.15
6.69
5.67
5.07
6.69
8.34

5.85
5.98
5.62
5.72
6.40
5.59
6.33
6.81
7.78

5.63
5.09
5.43
7.40
7.43
4.80
5.89
7.02
8.51

5.74
5.98
5.87
6.48
5.97
5.02
6.17
7.43
8.13

5.96
5.59
5.95
6.64
8.07
5.08
6.21
7.38
6.46

15.13
18.65
15.15
17.88
21.17
22.01
15.51
18.02
23.98

16.06
18.41
16.28
16.75
21.53
16.42
17.09
20.57
23.52

15.95
17.78
16.62
18.53
19.94
17.80
17.14
19.86
24.98

17.33
16.66
17.25
20.52
21.47
14.90
18.27
21.83
23.10

64.47
71.50
65.30
73.68
84.11
71.13
68.01
80.28
95.58

1

This series contains no revisions but is reprinted for the convenience of thi
This series is shown in this appendix for the first time.

2

106




C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Monthly

Annual

Year

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

1 Q

12. INDEX OF NET BUSINESS FORMATION
(1967-100)

II Q

IVQ

III Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

!!!
1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.

126.0
96.2
88.9
93.1
96.0
99.0
88.7

121.8
91.7
91.5
93.4
96.6
98.9
88.1

117.8
88.2
93.1
94.8
97.2
98.0
87.8

118.5
88.3
95.1
91.8
96.5
98.2
89.8

116,9
85.6
94.2
92.1
98.4
95.7
90.1

114.6
85.5
95.8
91.7
99.4
94.0
90.2

110.8
83.4
94.5
92.2
97.2
94.4
91.0

109.2
84.3
93.5
91.9
99.9
94.0
92.4

106.5
86.2
92.8
93.7
100.1
90.6
92.9

106.0
86.1
92.6
94.1
99.8
90.7
94.5

100,9
88.2
93.2
95.7
99.0
89.2
95.3

101.8
90.0
92.2
94.9
98.7
90.0
95.1

121.9
92.0
91.2
93.8
96.6
98.6
88.2

116.7
86,5
95.0
91.9
98.1
96.0
90.0

108.8
84.6
93.6
92.6
99.1
93.0
92.1

102.9
88.1
92.7
94.9
99.2
90.0
95.0

112J6
87.8
93.1
93.3
98.2
94.4
91.3

1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.

98.5
97.4
91.7
86.3
96.5
97.6
85.3
90.0
91.6
95.2

100.0
97.8
91.5
85.4
97.0
96.1
87.1
90.7
92.8
95.8

100.1
97.6
91.9
84.9
98.3
94.7
88.0
90.9
93.1
95.7

99.4
96.3
91.7
84.8
98.6
94.8
88.4
90.6
91.9
96.8

99.5
96.4
91.1
87.7
97.8
93.0
88.7
90.6
92.4
98.0

100.2
95.0
91.8
88.3
96.4
93.2
89.0
90.4
92.8
96.4

100.0
94.7
91.3
89.8
96.3
92.6
88.5
90.5
93.4
96.3

99.1
94.2
90.3
91.9
96.1
91.0
87.7
91.1
94.3
96.6

99.2
93.2
89.7
92.9
96.1
90.6
87.8
91.2
94.0
99.0

97.9
94.4
88.9
93.0
95.3
90.3
89.3
91.2
94.3
99.8

97.8
92.6
88.1
93.9
96.8
87.9
90.2
90.7
94.0
98.2

97.4
93.0
86.6
94.6
97.0
87.3
90.1
90.9
94.5
98.7

99.5
97.6
91.7
85.5
97.3
96.1
86.8
90.5
92.5
95.6

99.7
95.9
91.5
86.9
97.6
93.7
88.7
90.5
92.4
97.1

99.4
94.0
90.4
91.5
96.2
91.4
88.0
90.9
93.9
97.3

97.7
93.3
87.9
93.8
96.4
88.5
89.9
90.9
94.3
98.9

99.1
95.2
90.4
89.5
96.8
92.4
88.3
90.7
93.3
97.2

1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.

99.0
101.7
95.1
106.3
117.2
114.0
106.2
115.2
119.1

99.1
102.1
95.7
106.8
117.2
113.9
105.5
114.7
119.9

98.6
102.1
96.0
106.6
116.6
110.8
108.2
116.2
120.8

97.3
100.2
96.3
104.9
117.0
110.1
108.6
117.7
119.3

97.9
99.2
97.6
104.7
116.6
108.0
109.8
118.3
118.8

98.7
98.9
100.6
106.4
116.8
106.6
112.0
117.6
118.5

99.1
97.6
100.7
109.9
116.8
105.5
112.5
118.5
118.2

98.3
96.7
103.0
111.2
116.1
104.8
113.1
117.9
117.2

98.7
95.5
102.3
112.9
114. 7
105.3
112.2

98.2
96.1
102.5
115.8
116.1
105.4
114.1
120.2
116.2

98.7
93.6
104.3
115.4
114.3
106.3
114.8
119.4
117.6

99.5
94.4
105.9
116.9
114.9
105.3
115.2
119.8
114.0

98.9
102.0
95.6
106.6
117.0
112.9
106.6
115.4
119.9

98.0
99.4
98.2
105.3
116.8
108.2
110.1
117.9
118.9

98.7
96.6
102.0
111.3
115.9
105.2
112.6
118.5
117.0

98.8
94.7
104.2
116.0
115.1
105.7
114.7
119.8
115.9

98.6
98.2
100.0
109.8
116.2
108.0
111.0
117.9
117.9

U9.2
115. 6

13. NUMBER OF NEW BUSINESS INCORPORATIONS
(NUMBER)

TOTAL FOR PERIOD

4,768
10,612
8,950
7,728
7,187
7,580
6,838
7,876
8,319
10,392

5,692
10,270
9,205
7,452
7,384
7,563
7,083
8,096
7,992
9,953

6,979
10,799
9,609
7,267
7,475
7,292
6,812
8,223
8,436
10,709

7,999
9,866
9,486
7,288
7,676
7,109
7,147
8,122
8,452
11,062

8,807
10,198
9,553
7,001
7,703
7,213
7,354
7,806
8,410
11,303

33,571
29,436
26,190
20,392
24,223
21,174
21,545
24,941
26,650

34,479
27,082
24,932
20,868
24,790
20,622
23,321
26,274
28,076

14,853
32,869
27,196
23,108
21,554
22,959
20,687
23,521
25,014
30,045

23,785
30,863
28,648
21,556
22,854
21,614
21,313
24,151
25,298
33,074

131,782
112,362
95,786
85,668
93,586
d3,796
92,538
101,527
117,645

1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.

10,929
10,178
9,244
6,996
8,027
7,155
7,023
7,956
8,445

11,109
9,591
8,748
6,697
8,143
6,937
7,067
8,361
8,982

11,533
9,667
8,198
6,699
8,053
7,082
7,455
8,624
9,223

11,653
9,161
8,620
7,061
8,053
7,021
7,742
8,885
9,600

10,949
8,999
8,246
6,958
8,378
6,858
7,760
8,968
9,280

11,877
8,922
8,066
6,849
8,359
6,743
7,819
8,421
9,196

4,393
11,987
9,041
7,928
6,983
7,816
6,766
7,549
8,703
9,700

1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.

11,665
11,826
11,250
11,042
16,346
16,561
13,607
15,599
14,924
15,993

11,967
12,379
11,359
11,049
16,255
15,274
14,570
15,758
15,390
16,326

11,769
11,872
11,367
11,042
16,548
15,233
14,658
15,670
15,563
15,917

11,414
11,445
11,507
10,636
16,604
15,280
15,327
15,372
15,305
16,132

11,242
11,947
11,109
11,752
16,296
15,176
15,298
15,245
15,682
16,473

11,892
11,834
11,739
12,032
15,204
15,630
15,431
14,947
15,536
16,282

11,840
12,119
11,686
12,504
15,658
15,828
15,492
15,171
15,431
16,550

11,561
11,936
11,593
13,644
15,813
15,114
15,277
15,056
16,093
15,692

11,854
11,408
11,318
13,933
15,728
15,112
15,402
15,249
15,689
16,948

11,628
11,546
11,251
13,669
15,383
15,035
16,035
14,892
16,275
16,728

11,542
11,078
10,788
14,599
15,695
14,264
16,149
14,951
15,759
16,804

11,313
11,477
10,791
15,577
15,959
14,097
15,881
14,985
15,867
17,021

35,401
36,077
33,976
33,133
49,149
47,068
42,835
47,027
45,877
4S,236

34,548
35,226
34,355
34,420
48,104
46,086
46,056
45,564
46,523
48,887

35,255
35,463
34,597
40,081
47,199
46,054
46,171
45,476
47,213
49,190

34,403
34,101
32,830
43,845
47,037
43,396
48,065
44,828
47,901
50,553

139,687
140,867
135,758
151,479
191,489
182,604
183,127
182,895
187,514
196,866

1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.

16,784
18,087
16,703
18,061
21,364
22,196
22,563
25,270
27,796

16,854
17,451
15,987
18,041
22,105
22,968
21,034
25,084
28,752

17,131
17,266
16,244
18,538
22,083
21,346
22,883
26,231
28,964

16,664
17,057
16,760
18,663
23,262
21,829
22,814
26,630
28,522

16,580
16,644
17,627
18,723
23,118
21,874
23,960
26,270
28,286

17,017
16,577
17,799
18,839
23,439
21,796
24,481
26,175
27,999

16,844
16,074
16,300
19,407
23,366
21,614
24,677
26,789
27,664

16,901
16,343
17,674
19,947
22,871
21,796
25,012
26,365
26,689

17,136
15,764
17,818
20,582
22,594
22,181
23,623
27,168
26,240

16,994
16,233
17,654
21,093
24,263
21,712
25,356
27,526
26,809

17,606
16,206
17,958
20,890
23,125
22,217
25,510
26,234
26,718

17,625
16,583
18,238
20,619
22,404
22,272
25,634
27,699
24,881

50,769
52,804
46,934
54,640
65,552
66,510
66,480
76,585
85,512

50,261
50,278
52,186
56,225
69,819
65,499
71,255
79,075
84,807

50,881
48,181
51,792
59,936
68,831
65,591
73,312
80,322
80,593

52,225
49,022
53,850
62,602
69,792
66,201
76,500
81,461
78,408

204,136
200,285
206,762
233,403
273,994
263,801
287,547
317,443
329,320

5

AVERAGE WEEKLY INITIAL CLAIMS FOR UNEMPLOYMENT
(THOUSANDS)

INSURANCE;

STATE PROGRAMS1
AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1945.
1946.
1947.
1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.

16
134
121
166
285
294
174
221
175
303

26
225
174
206
305
288
181
201
177
318

28
192
185
201
333
276
166
209
188
320

34
205
207
210
379
263
199
219
179
313

43
220
235
239
377
250
199
213
198
313

70
206
219
219
359
252
209
242
195
314

72
171
229
194
340
223
236
315
207
294

360
163
193
202
385
170
254
207
229
319

375
191
179
218
320
182
242
168
238
322

248
181
163
203
386
194
234
175
251
315

220
178
172
211
344
200
210
169
298
276

185
211
172
234
298
197
213
190
280
253

23
184
160
191
308
286
174
210
180
314

49
210
220
223
372
255
202
225
191
313

269
175
200
205
348
192
244
230
225
312

218
190
169
216
343
197
219
178
276
281

140
190
187
209
343
232
210
211
218
305

1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.

256
218
242
354
292
281
393
301
310
284

240
226
225
407
284
271
429
295
301
270

228
221
219
436
258
303
379
287
288
277

228
223
239
438
244
294
381
283
293
265

222
236
244
400
246
316
358
301
288
262

222
227
246
410
258
322
334
304
284
257

223
245
267
350
264
335
348
303
281
260

233
224
235
363
291
363
316
305
290
244

204
236
305
338
271
351
329
300
285
245

224
214
302
314
311
373
304
304
282
249

215
223
320
311
351
385
305
299
276
262

214
230
355
320
275
381
296
310
301
251

241
222
229
399
278
285
400
294
300
277

224
229
243
416
249
311
358
296
288
261

220
235
269
350
275
350
331
303
285
250

218
222
326
315
312
380
302
304
286
254

226
227
267
370
279
331
348
299
290
260

1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.

243
222
196
206
179
240
292
264
226

248
219
231
196
186
256
286
262
223

237
182
256
194
185
262
294
258
227

237
179
259
193
181
326
283
260
238

224
192
236
195
182
302
290
262
234

224
194
231
194
197
291
289
286
233

231
199
231
189
195
273
285
272
232

248
195
212
199
196
287
327
246
247

218
197
217
194
200
319
307
246
241

209
203
220
188
202
329
295
250
244

212
208
209
190
211
322
283
241
251

206
219
204
190
210
299
265
236
284

243
208
228
199
183
253
291
261
225

228
188
242
194
187
306
287
269
235

232
197
220
194
197
293
306
255
240

209
210
211
189
208
317
281
242
260

228
201
225
194
194
292
291
257
240

NOTE:

Unless otherwise noted, these series contain no rex Isions but are reprinted for the convenience of the user.




(June 1975)

107

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Monthly
Year

Annual

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

June

May

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

1 Q

40. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, MARRIED MALES, SPOUSE PRESENT
(PERCENT)

1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.
1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.

II Q

III Q

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

2.5
2.7
3.0
5.1

2.6
2.5
3.1
4.9

3.6

3.3

2.4
2.8
3.5
4.5

2.3
2.8
3.7
4.5

2.5
2.6
4.0

2.5
2.4
4.7

2.5
2.3
5.2

2.5
2.6
5.5

2.6
2.6
5.6

2.6
2.6
5.8

2.8
2.6
5.7

2.4
2.7
5.6

3.3
4.7

4.8

4.8

4.9

5.1

4.8

4.8

4.7

3.7
3.1

3.7
3.0

3.6
3.0

3.4
2.9

3.4
2.6

3.2
2.8

3.2
2.7

3.0
2.5

3.0
2.8

3.0
2.9

2.4

2.7

2.7
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.4
1.9

2.6
1.9
1.7
1.8
1.4
2.1

2.5
2.0
1.8
1.7
1.4
2.2

2.5
1.8
1.9
1.5
1.4
2.3

2.5
1.7
1.8
1.5

2.3
1.9
1.9
1.7

2.3
2.0
1.8
1.6

2.4
1.9
1.8
1.6

2.2
1.8
1.8
1.6

2.0
1.8
1.8
1.6

2.0
1.8
1.7
1.6

1.9
1.8
1.8
1.4

2.5

3.0
2.4

2.9
2.4

2.8
2.4

2.9
2.4

2.8
2.3

2.5
3.1
2.9
2.2

2.7
3.1
2.8
2.1

2.8
3.2
2.6
2.1

2.9
3.2
2.8
2.1

3.0
3.0
2.8
2.1

3.2
3.3
2.5
2.2

3.3
3.2
2.4
2.2

3.2
2.5
2.4
4.6

2.9
2.6
2.6
5.6
3.2
4.9
3.6

2.5
2.6
2.8
5.5
3.5
3.8
4.7
3 5

3.0

2.8

2.7

2.4
2.7
3.4
4.6
3.8
4.5
4.1
3.5
3.2
2.7

2.6
2.0
1.8
1.8
1.4
2.1
3.2
2.9
2.4

2.4
1.8
1.9
1.6
1.5
2.4
3.1
2.9
2.3

2.3
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.6
2.8
3.2
2.7
2.1

2.0
1.8
1.8
1.5
1.6
3.2
3.2
2.6
2.2

2.4
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5
2.6
3.2
2.8
2.3

2.8
2.6
2.8
5.1
3.6
3.7
4.6
3.6
3.4
2.8

42. TOTAL NUMBER OF PERSONS ENGAGED IN NONAGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES, LABOR

FORCE SURVEY

(THOUSANDS)

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.

49,984
50,385
50,570
52,808
53,312
54,958
53,951

50,500
50,186
50,694
52,923
53,442
55,421
54,073

50,338
50,035
50,612
53,543
53,440
55,590
53,791

50,734
49,836
51,319
53,167
53,384
55,082
54,043

50,713
49,485
51,372
53,436
53,861
55,082
53,698

51,152
49,370
51,767
53,091
53,690
55,095
53,630

51,366
49,169
51,875
53,555
53,637
55,130
53,421

50,894
49,793
52,549
53,204
53,616
54,832
53,766

50,648
50,287
52,583
53,155
53,984
54,708
53,829

1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.

54,640
57,163
57,842
57,389
58,387
59,889
60,354
61,014
62,190
63,724

54,873
57,061
58,132
57,244
58,255
60,177
60,116
61,249
62,372
64,188

54,722
57,190
58,441
57,170
58,590
59,714
60,444
61,336
62,655
64,397

55,152
57,154
58,211
57,029
58,875
60,488
60,337
61,363
62,972
64,942

55,307
57,486
57,986
57,227
58,907
60,698
60,350
61,724
62,886
65,028

55,538
57,485
58,194
57,220
59,137
60,752
60,773
61,727
63,007
64,662

56,075
57,480
58,139
57,220
59,447
60,367
60,455
61,643
63,211
64,808

56,222
57,692
58,061
57,339
59,402
60,375
60,486
62,102
63,304
64,890

56,131
57,704
58,393
57,728
59,323
60,512
60,520
62,325
63,524
64,959

1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.

65,726
68,121
69,781
70,792
73,101
75,440
75,343
77,231
79,182

65,805
68,056
69,883
71,270
73,557
75,264
75,188
77,271
79,863

66,121
68,119
69,682
71,475
73,699
75,320
74,921
77,579
80,256

66,209
68,402
70,134
71,686
73,894
75,333
75,137
77,792
80,521

66,310
68,567
70,186
72,293
73,706
74,998
75,445
78,039
80,669

66,581
68,808
70,589
72/376
74,217
74,883
75,257
78,248
81,022

67,070
68,940
70,687
72,267
74,411
75,179
75,727
78,357
81,144

67,007
69,225
70,804
72,307
74,637
75,173
75,943
78,542
81,148

67,015
69,306
71,003
72,414
74,699
75,000
76,104
78,590
81,626

1

50,761
50,455
52,432
53,374
53,769
54,797
54,028

50,793
50,512
52,534
53,137
54,239
54,393
54,423

50,756
50,466
52,669
53,432
54,593
54,048
54,268

50,274
50,202
50,625
53,091
53,398
55,323
53,938

50,866
49,564
51,486
53,231
53,645
55,086
53,790

50,969
49,750
52,336
53,305
53,746
54,890
53,672

50,770
50,478
52,545
53,314
54,200
54,413
54,240

50,716
49,992
51,759
53,236
53,753
54,921
53,904

56,263
57,838
58,171
57,912
59,556
60,196
60,716
62,298
63,592
65,032

56,602
57,799
57,983
57,899
59,050
60,596
60,991
62,016
63,573
65,239

57,031
58,104
57,885
58,028
59,883
60,156
60,908
62,300
63,584
65,492

54,745
57,138
58,138
57,268
58,411
59,927
60,305
61,200
62,406
64,103

55,332
57,375
58,130
57,159
58,973
60,646
60,487
61,605
62,955
64,877

56,143
57,625
58,198
57,429
59,391
60,418
60,487
62,023
63,346
64,886

56,632
57,914
58,013
57,946
59,496
60,316
60,872
62,205
63,583
65,254

55,721
57,517
58,123
57,450
59,065
60,318
60,546
61,759
63,076
64,782

67,277
69,489
71,043
72,483
74,928
75,267
76,292
78,583
82,024

67,631
69,895
71,192
72,736
75,064
75,169
76,614
78,952
82,006

67,903
69,823
71,397
73,032
75,331
75,101
76,826
79,268
82,011

65,884
68,099
69,782
71,179
73,452
75,341
75,151
77,360
79,767

66,367
68,592
70,303
72,118
73,939
75,071
75,280
78,026
80,737

67,031
69,157
70,831
72,329
74,582
75,117
75,925
78,496
81,306

67,604
69,736
71,211
72,750
75,108
75,179
76,577
78,934
82,014

66,727
68,920
70,529
72,104
74,296
75,165
75,732
78,230
80,957

43. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, TOTAL
(PERCENT)

1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.

3.4
4.3
6.5
3.7
3.2
2.9
4.9

1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.

4.9
4.0
4.2
5.8
6.0
5.2
6.6
5.8
5.7
5.6

1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.

4.9
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.4
3.9
6.0
5.9
5.0

NOTE:

108

3.8
4.7

4.0
5.0

3.9
5.3

3.5
6.1

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

3.6
6.2

3.6

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.8

4.0

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.8

4.5
3.1
3.4
2.7
6.0

4.4
3.3
3.1
2.9
6.1

4.2
3.5
3.0
3.1
5.7

4.2
3.5
2.8
3.5
5.3

4.3
3.1
2.7
4.5
5.0

6.4
3.5
3.1
2.7
5.3

5.6
3.1
3.0
2.6
5.8

4.6
3.2
3.2
2.7
6.0

4.2
3.4
2.8
3.7
5.3

3.8
5.9
5.3
3.3
3.0
2.9
5.6

3.4
3.1
2.6
5.2

3.4
2.9
2.6
5.7

3.1
2.9
2.7
5.9

3.0
3.0
2.5
5.9

3.2
3.0
2.5
5.6

5.0
3.1
3.2
2.6
5.8

4.7
3.9
3.9

4.6
4.2
3.7

4.7
4.0
3.9

4.3

4.2

4.0

4.2

4.1

4.3

4.2

4.

4.3

4.2

5.9
4.8
6.9
5.5

5.6
5.4
6.9
5.6

5.2
5.2
7.0
5.6

5.
5.
7.
5.5

5.0
5.4
6.9
5.5

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.1

5.2

5.1
5.5
7.0
5.4
5.6
4.9

4.1
7.4
5.2
5.6
6.6
5.7
5.4
5.0

4.4
7.1
5.5
5.5
6.7
5.6
5.5
5.1

4.5
6.7
5.7
6.1
6.5
5.4
5.5
5.1

5.1
6.2
5.8
6.1
6.1
5.7
5.7
4.8

4.2
4.2
5.2
6.2
5.3
6.6
6.0
5.5
5.5
5.0

4.7
4.0
3.9
6.3
5.8
5.1
6.8
5.6
5.8
5.5

4.4
4.2
4.1
7.4
5.1
5.2
7.0
5.5
5.7
5.2

4.1
4.1
4.2
7.3
5.3
5.5
6.8
5.6
5.5
5.0

4.2
4.1
4.9
6.4
5.6
6.3
6.2
5.5
5.6
5.0

4.4
4.1
4.3
6.8
5.5
5.5
6.7
5.5
5.7
5.2

5.1
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.4
4.2
5.9
5.7
5.0

4.7
3.8
3 8

4.8
3.8

4.6
3.9

4.6
3.8

4.4
3.8

4.3
3.7
3.8

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.9

4.7

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.4
4.4
6.0
5.8
4.9

3.4
4.6
5.9
5.7
5.0

4.4
3.8
3.8
3.5
3.5
5.1
6.1
5.6
4.8

3.7
5.4
5.9
5.5
4.8

3.7
5.6
5.9
5.6
4.6

3.5
5.9
6.0
5.2
4.8

3.5
6.1
6.0
5.1
4.9

3 8
3.7
3.4
4.2
6.0
5.8
5.0

3 8
3.6
3.4
4.7
5.9
5.7
4.9

4.4
3.8
3.8
3.5
3.6
5.2
6.0
5.6
4.8

4.1
3.7
3.9
3.4
3.6
5.9
6.0
5.3
4.8

4.5
3.8
3.8
3.6
3.5
4.9
5.9
5.6
4.9

3.4
4.7
6.0
5.7
4.9

These series contain revisions beginning with 1970.




3.5
4.9
5.8
5.6
4.8

3.5
5.0
5.9
5.6
4.8

(June 1975)

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Monthly
Year

Annual

Feb.

Jan.

Mar.

Apr.

June

May

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

1 Q

HH. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE/ 15 WEEKS AND OVER
(PERCENT)

II Q

IV Q

III Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

...
...
1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.

0.5
0.5
1.5
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.6

0.5
0.6
1.5
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.8

0.5
0.7
1.5
0.6
0.4
0.3
1.2

0.5
0.8
1.5
0.5
0.4
0.3
1.2

0.5
1.0
1.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
1.4

0.5
1.2
1.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
1.4

0.5
1.4
1.2
0.4
0.3
0.3
1.5

0.5
1.5
1.0
0.4
0.3
0.3
1.6

0.5
1.6
1.0
0.4
0.4
0.3
1.6

0.5
1.6
0.9
0.4
0.4
0.3
1.6

0.5
1.7
0.8
0.5
0.3
0.4
1.5

0.5
1.6
0.8
0.4
0.4
0.5
1.3

0.5
0.6
1.5
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.9

0.5
1.0
1.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
1.3

0.5
1.5
1.1
0.4
0.3
0.3
1.6

0.5
1.6
0.8
0.4
0.4
0,4
1.5

1.1
1.3
0.5
0.4
0.3
1.3

1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.

1.4
0.8
0.8
1.3
2.1
1.3
1.9
1.8
1.6
1.5

1.3
0.8
0.8
1.5
1.9
1.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4

1.3
0.8
0.8
1.7
1.8
1.4
2.1
1.7
1.5

1.3
0.7
0.8
2.1
1.5
1.3
2.3
1.6
1.5
1.3

1.1
0.8
0.8
2.2
1.4
1.1
2.4
1.6
1.6

1.0
0.8
0.8
2.5
1.4
1.2
2.3
1.5
1.5
1.4

1.0
0.8
0.8
2.6
1.3
1.3
2.6
1.5
1.5
1.4

0.8
0.8
0.8
2.8
1.3
1.3
2.3
1.5
1.6
1.3

0.9
0.9
0.8
2.6
1.3
1.4
2.2
1.5
1.5

0.9
0.8
1.0
2.5
1.3
1.7
2.1
1.4
1.5
1.2

0.9
0.9
1.0
2.3
1.4
1.7
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.3

0.9
0.9
1.1
2.2
1.3
1.6
1.9
1.5
1.4
1.2

1.3
0.8
0.8
1.5
1.9
1.3
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4

1.1
0.8
0.8
2,3
1.4
1.2
2.3
1.6
1.5
1.3

0.9
0.8
0.8
2.7
1.3
1.3
2.4
1.5
1.5
1.3

0,9
0.9
1.0
2.3
1.3
1.7
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.2

1.1
0.8
0.8
2.1
1.5
1.4
2.2
1.6
1.5
1.3

1965.
1966!
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.

1. 1

o!s

1 2

o!s

1.1
o'.B
0.6

0.5
0.5
0.7
1.4
1.4
0.9

0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.9
1.5
1.3
0.8

0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
1.0
1.5
1.2
0.9

0.6
0.6
0.4
0.5
1.3
1.5
1.1
0.8

0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.6
1.3
1.5
1.0

0.7
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.7
1.4
1.4
0.9

1.0
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.8
1.5
1.3
0.9

1.0
0.7
0.6

0.5
0.5
0.7
1.4
1.4
0.9

1 0
o!6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.8
1.5
1.3
0.9

09
o!&

0.6
0.4
0.6
1.3
1.4
1.0

1 •1•"•
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.8
1.4
1.3
0.9

1 0
o!&

0.6
0.6
0.4
0.6
1.3
1.5
1.0

1.0
0.7
0.5

0.9

0.6
0.6
0.4
0.5
1.3
1.5
1.1

I I
o'.Q
0.6

1.4

1.3

o!&

0.5
0.5
0.5
0.8
1.5
1.3
0.8

1.3

0.6
0.5
0.5
0.9
1.5
1.3
0.9

841. TOTAL CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE, LABOR FORCE SURVEY
(THOUSANDS)

0.6
0.5
0.5
1.1
1.5
1.2
0.8

0*.5

0.5
0.5
0.8
1.4
1.3
0.9

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
...

1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.

60/095
60,771
61,661
61,941
62,432
63,439
63,101

60,524
61,057
61,687
61,778
62,419
63,520
63,994

60,070
61,073
61,604
62,526
61,721
63,657
63,793

60/677
61,007
62/158
61,808
61,720
63/167
63,934

59/972
61/259
62/083
62/044
62/058
62/615
63/675

60/957
60/948
62/419
61/615
62/103
63/063
63/343

61,181
61,301
62,121
62,106
61,962
63,057
63,302

60/806
61/590
62/596
61/927
61/877
62/816
63/707

60,815
61,633
62,349
61,780
62,457
62,727
64,209

60,646
62,185
62,428
62,204
61,971
62,867
63,936

60/702
62/005
62/286
62/014
62/491
62/949
63/759

61,169
61,908
62,068
62,457
62,621
62/795
63/312

60/230
60/967
61,651
62,082
62,191
63,539
63,629

60,535
61,071
62,220
61,822
61,960
62,948
63,651

60,934
61,508
62,355
61,938
62/099
62/867
63/739

60,839
62,033
62,261
62/225
62/361
62/870
63,669

60/622
61,288
62/210
62/017
62/139
63/016
63/642

1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.

63,910
66,419
66,428
67,095
67,936
68,962
70/447
70,189
71,146
72,356

63,696
66,124
66,879
67,201
67,649
68,949
70,420
70,409
71,262
72,683

63,882
66,175
66,913
67,223
68,068
68,399
70,703
70,414
71,423
72,713

64/564
66/264
66/647
67/647
68/339
69/579
70/267
70/278
71/697
73/274

64/381
66/72?
66/695
67/895
68/178
69/626
70/452
70/551
71/832
73/395

64/482
66/702
67/052
67/674
68/278
69/934
70/878
70/514
71/626
73/032

65,145
66,752
67,336
67/824
68,539
69,745
70,536
70,302
71,956
73,007

65/581
66/673
66/706
68/037
68/432
69/841
70/534
70/981
71/786
73/118

65,628
66,714
67,064
68,002
68,545
70,151
70,217
71,153
72,131
73,290

65,821
66,546
67,066
68,045
68,821
69,884
70,492
70,917
72,281
73,308

66/037
66/657
67/123
67/658
68/533
70/439
70/376
70/871
72/418
73/286

66,445
66/700
67,398
67,740
68,994
70,395
70,077
70,854
72,188
73,465

63,829
66,239
66,740
67,173
67,884
68,770
70,523
70,337
71,277
72,584

64,476
66,563
66,798
67,739
68,265
69,713
70,532
70,448
71,718
73,234

65/451
66/713
67/035
67/954
68/505
69,912
70,429
70/812
71/958
73/138

66,101
66,634
67,196
67,814
68,783
70,239
70,315
70,881
72,296
73,353

65/023
66/553
66/928
67/637
68/368
69/629
70/460
70/615
71,834
73,090

1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.

73,569
75,186
76,639
77,578
79,523
82,077
83,744
85,631
86,964

73,857
74,954
76,521
78,230
80,019
82,155
83,374
85,543
87,703

73,949
75,075
76,328
78,256
80,079
82,446
83,254
86,021
88,043

74/228
75/338
76/777
78/270
80/281
82/690
83/647
86/086
88/296

74/466
75/447
76/773
78/847
80/125
82/456
83/901
86/343
88/325

74/412
75/647
77/270
79/120
80/696
82/446
83/440
86/463
88/791

74,761
75,736
77,464
78,970
80,827
82,876
84,064
86,649
88,902

74/616
76/046
77,712
78,8H
81,106
82,843
84,450
87,035
88,816

74,502
76,056
77,812
78,858
81,290
82,906
84,477
86,941
89,223

74,838
76,199
78,194
78,913
81,494
83,250
84,697
87,105
89,568

74/797
76/610
78/191
79/209
81/397
83/422
85/130
86/967
89/852

75,093
76,641
78,491
79,463
81,624
83,536
85/288
87/311
90/048

73,792
75,072
76,496
78,021
79,874
82,226
83,457
85,732
87,570

74,369
75,477
76,940
78,746
80,367
82,531
83,663
86,297
88,471

74,626
75/946
77/663
78/880
81/074
82/875
84/330
86/875
88/980

74,909
76,483
78,292
79,195
81,505
83,403
85,038
87,128
89,823

74/453
75/777
77/350
78/737
80/734
82/715
84/113
86/542
88/716

842. TOTAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT, LABOR FORCE SURVEY
(THOUSANDS)

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
...
...

1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.

58,061
58,175
57,635
59,636
60,460
61,600
60,024

58,196
58,208
57,751
59,661
60,462
61,884
60,663

57,671
58,043
57,728
60,401
59,908
62,010
60,186

58/291
57/747
58,583
59,889
59,909
61,444
60,185

57/854
57/552
58/649
60/188
60/195
61/019
59/908

58/743
57/172
59/052
59/620
60/219
61,456
59/792

58,968
57,190
59,001
60,156
59,971
61,397
59,643

58,456
57,397
59,797
59,994
59,790
61,151
59,853

58,513
57,584
59,575
59,713
60,521
60,906
60,282

58,387
57,269
59,803
60,010
60,132
60,893
60/270

58/417
58/009
59,697
59/836
60/748
60/738
60/357

58,740
57,845
59,429
60,497
60,954
59,977
60,116

57,976
58,142
57,705
59,899
60,277
61,831
60,291

58,296
57,490
58,761
59,899
60,108
61,306
59,962

58/646
57/390
59,458
59,954
60/094
61/151
59/926

58,515
57,708
59,643
60/114
60,611
60/536
60/248

58/344
57/652
58,921
59,963
60,255
61,180
60/109

1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.

60,753
63,753
63,632
63,220
63,868
65,347
65,776
66,108
67,072
68,327

60,727
63,518
64,257
62,898
63,684
65,620
65,588
66,538
67,024
68,751

60,964
63,411
64,404
62,731
64,267
64,673
65,850
66,493
67,351
68,763

61,515
63,614
64,047
62/631
64/768
65/959
65,374
66,372
67,642
69,356

61/634
63/861
63/985
62/874
64/699
66/057
65/449
66/688
67/615
69,631

61/781
63/820
64/196
62/730
64/849
66/168
65/993
66/670
67/649
69/218

62/513
63/800
64,540
62,745
65,011
65,909
65,608
66,483
67,905
69,399

62,797
63,972
63/959
63,012
64,844
65,895
65,852
66,968
67,908
69,463

62,950
64,079
64,121
63,181
64,770
66,267
65,541
67,192
68,174
69,578

62,991
63/975
64/046
63,475
64,911
65,632
65,919
67,114
68,294
69,582

63/257
63/796
63/669
63/470
64/530
66/109
66/081
66/847
68/267
69/735

63,684
63,910
63,922
63,549
65,341
65,778
65,900
66,947
68,213
69,814

60,815
63,561
64,098
62,950
63,940
65,213
65,738
66,380
67,149
68,614

61,643
63,765
64,076
62,745
64,772
66,061
65,605
66/577
67,635
69,402

62/753
63/950
64/207
62/979
64/875
66/024
65,667
66,881
67/996
69,480

63,311
63/894
63,879
63,498
64,927
65,840
65,967
66,969
68,258
69,710

62/170
63/801
64/069
63/036
64/629
65/777
65/746
66/703
67,763
69,305

1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.

69,997
72,198
73,671
74,700
76,805
78,864
78,735
80,592
82,633

70,127
72,134
73,606
75,229
77,327
78,707
78,477
80,631
83,276

70,439
72,188
73,439
75,379
77,367
78,818
78,269
80,996
83,686

70/633
72/510
73/882
75/561
77/523
78/894
78/693
81/138
83/877

71/034
72/497
73/844
76/107
77/412
78/543
78/883
81/431
84/021

71/025
72/775
74/278
76/182
77/880
78/430
78/577
81,623
84,487

71,460
72,860
74,520
76,087
77,959
78/696
79,109
81,813
84,679

71/362
73/146
74/767
76/043
78/250
78/591
79/336
82/145
84/582

71,286
73,258
74,854
76,172
78,250
78,452
79,469
82,163
84,983

71,695
73,401
75,051
76,224
78,445
78,613
79,700
82,216
85,452

71/724
73/840
75/125
76/494
78/541
78/537
80/019
82/453
85/577

72,062
73,729
75,473
76,778
78,740
78,480
80,190
82,846
85/646

70,188
72,173
73,572
75,103
77,166
78,796
78,494
80,740
83,198

70,897
72/594
74,001
75/950
77/605
78/622
78,718
81,397
84,128

71,369
73,088
74/714
76/101
78/153
78/580
79,305
82,040
84,748

71,827
73,657
75,216
76,499
78,575
78,543
79,970
82,505
85,558

71,088
72/899
74/373
75/921
77,902
78,627
79,119
81,702
84,410

NOTE:

These series

mtain revisions beginning with 1970.




109

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Monthly
Year

Annual
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

1 Q

843. NUMBER OF PERSONS UNEMPLOYED/ LABOR FORCE SURVEY
(THOUSANDS)

II Q

III Q

IV Q

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1946. . .
1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.

2/034
2/596
4/026
2/305
1/972
1/839
3/077

2/328
2,849
3/936
2,117
1,957
1,636
3,331

2,399
3,030
3,876
2,125
1/813
1,647
3,607

2/386
3/260
3/575
1/919
1/811
1/723
3/749

2/118
3/707
3/434
1/856
1/863
1/596
3/767

2/214
3/776
3/367
1/995
1/884
1/607
3/551

2/213
4,111
3/120
1,950
1,991
1/660
3/659

2,350
4,193
2,799
1/933
2/087
1/665
3/854

2,302
4,049
2,774
2,067
1,936
1,821
3,927

2,259
4,916
2,625
2,194
1,839
1,974
3,666

2,285
3,996
2,589
2/178
1/743
2/211
3/402

2/429
4/063
2/639
1/960
1/667
2/818
3/196

2,254
2/825
3/946
2/182
1/914
1/707
3/338

2,239
3,581
3,459
1/923
1/853
1/642
3/689

2/288
4,118
2,898
1,983
2/005
1/715
3/813

2/324
4/325
2/618
2/111
1/750
2/334
3/421

2/278
3/636
3/289
2/054
1/884
1/836
3/533

1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.

3,157
2/666
2/796
3/875
4,068
3/615
4/671
4/081
4/074
4,029

2,969
2,606
2/622
4,303
3,965
3,329
4,832
3,871
4,238
3,932

2/918
2,764
2,509
4,492
3,801
3,726
4,853
3,921
4,072
3,950

3/049
2/650
2/600
5/016
3/571
3/620
4/893
3/906
4/055
3/918

2/747
2/861
2/710
5/021
3/479
3/569
5/003
3/863
4/217
3,764

2/701
2/882
2/856
4/944
3/429
3/766
4/885
3/844
3/977
3/814

2/632
2/952
2/796
5/079
3/528
3/836
4/928
3,819
4,051
3,608

2/784
2/701
2/747
5/025
3/588
3/946
4/682
4/013
3/878
3/655

2,678
2,635
2,943
4,821
3,775
3,884
4,676
3,961
3,957
3,712

2,830
2,571
3,020
4,570
3,910
4,252
4,573
3,803
3,987
3,726

2/780
2/861
3/454
4/188
4,003
4/330
4/295
4/024
4/151
3/551

2/761
2/790
3/476
4/191
3/653
4/617
4,177
3,907
3/975
3/651

3/015
2/679
2/642
4/223
3,945
3/557
4,785
3,958
4,128
3,970

2/832
2/798
2/722
4/994
3/493
3/652
4/927
3/871
4,083
3,832

2/698
2/763
2/829
4/975
3/630
3/889
4/762
3,931
3,962
3,658

2/790
2/741
3/317
4/316
3/855
4/400
4/348
3/911
4/038
3/643

2/853
2/752
2/859
4/601
3/739
3/852
4/714
3/912
4/071
3,785

1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.

3,572
2/988
2/968
2/878
2/718
3/213
5/009
5/039
4,331

3,730
2,820
2,915
3,001
2,692
3,448
4,897
4,912
4,427

3,510
2,887
2,889
2,877
2/712
3/628
4/985
5/025
4,357

3/595
?,828
2/895
2/709
2/758
3/796
4/954
4/948
4/419

3/432
2/950
2/929
2/740
2/713
3/913
5/018
4/912
4/304

3/387
2/872
2/992
2/938
2/816
4/016
4/863
4/840
4/304

3,301
2,876
2/944
2/883
2/868
4/180
4/955
4/836
4,223

3/254
2/900
2/945
2/768
2,856
4,252
5,114
4,890
4,234

3,216
2,798
2,958
2,686
3,040
4,454
5,008
4,778
4,240

3,143
2,798
3,143
2,689
3,049
4,637
4/997
4,889
4,116

3/073
2/770
3/066
2/715
2/856
4/885
5/111
4/514
4/275

3/031
2/912
3/018
2/685
2/884
5/056
5/098
4/465
4,402

3,604
2/898
2/924
2,919
2,707
3,430
4,964
4,992
4,372

3/471
2/883
2/939
2/796
2/762
3/908
4/945
4/900
4/342

3,257
2,858
2,949
2/779
2/921
4/295
5/026
4/835
4/232

3/082
2/827
3/076
2/696
2/930
4/859
5,069
4,623
4,264

3/365
2/878
2/977
2/816
2/832
4/088
4/994
4/840
4/306

844.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, MALES 20 YEARS AND OVER, LABOR FORCE SURVEY
(PERCENT)

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.

3.0
3.8
5.7
3.0
2.5
2.6
4.0

3.1
4.2
5.6
2.7
2.4
2.2
4.4

3.3
4.6
5.7
2.5
2.3
2.0
4.8

3.4
4.7
5.4
2.2
2.3
2.4
5.1

3.2
5.5
4.9
2.2
2.2
2.3
5.2

3.0
5.7
4.6
2.5
2.5
2.1
5.1

2.9
6.2
4.4
2.4
2.7
2.2
5.1

3.2
6.2
3.9
2.5
2.9
2.2
5.4

6.0
3.8
2.5
2.6
2.4
5.5

7.9
3.5
2.8
2.3
2.5
5.4

6.0
3.4
2.7
2.2
3.1
4.8

5.9
3.5
2.4
2.1
3.8
4.5

4.2
5.7
2.7
2.4
2.3
4.4

5.3
5.0
2.3
2.3
2.3
5.1

3.1
6.1
4.0
2.5
2.7
2.3
5.3

3.4
6.6
3.5
2.6
2.2
3.1
4.9

3.2
5.4
4.7
2.5
2.4
2.5
4.9

1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.

4.3

4.1

4.1

4.4

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.5

3.2

3.5

3.4

3.4
5.2
5.3
4.4
5.8
4.7

3.3
5.7
5.3
4.1
5.9
4.5

3.0
6.2
4.8
4.6
5.9
4.6

4.3

4.1

4.0

4.0
6.1
4.8
5.2
5.4
4.4
4.2
3.9

4.5
5.7
5.3
5.4
5.2
4.6
4.4
3.5

3.4
3.6
4.7
5.6
4.3
5.7
5.0
4.6
4.3
3.6

4.2
3.4
3.2
5.7
5.1
4.4
5.9
4.6
4.8
4.1

3.8
3.4
3.4
6.8
4.2
4.4
6.1
4.7
4.4
3.8

3.4
3.3
3.5
6.8
4.5
4.8
5.8
4.6
4.2
3.7

3.4
3.4
4.4
5.8
4.8
5.4
5.2
4.5
4.3
3.7

3.8
3.4
3.6
6.2
4.7
4.7
5.7
4.6
4.5
3.9

2.7
2.3
2.3
2.0
2.5
4.4
4.2

2.6
2.3
2.4
2.0
2.8

2.6
2.4
2.3
1.9
2.9

2.5
2.4
2.1
2.0

2.8
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.3
4.1

2.7
2.4
2.3
2.0
2.2
4.2

2.7
2.5
2.4
1.9
2.3
4.5

3.5
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.0
2.7

3.3
2.5
2.4
2.1
2.0
3.3

3.1
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.2
3.8

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.0
3.0

3.6
3.1

3.4
3.2

4.1
3.4

4.1
3.3

3.9
3.1

2.7
2.4
2.3
2.0
2.3
4.3
4.4
3.7
3.1

3.2
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.1
3.5
4.4
4.0
3.2

3.6
5.8
4.5
4.0
3.0
3.7
5.0

3.6
5.3
5.1
4.0
3.2
2.9
5.5

1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.

6.7
4.2
4.4
6.1

6.9
4.2
4.5
5.8

7.0
4.3
4.7
6.0

6.9
4.3
4.9
5.8

6.4
4.8
4.9
5.6
4.6

2.4
2.4
2.1
2.0

2.5
2.4
2.2
2.0

3.1
2.5
2.3
2.1
2.1

3.1
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.1

3.0
2.4
2.2
2.1
2.3

4.1

4.3
4.0

4.3
4.0
3.1

4.5
3.8
3.1

4.4
3.8
3.1

6.9
4.2
4.3
6.3
3.7

845. UNEMPLOYMENT RATEj

FEMALES 20 YEARS AND OVER/ LABOR FORCE SURVEY
(PERCENT)

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.

2.8
3.8
6.3
4.2
3.4
2.6
5.2

3.9
4.1
6.1
4.1
3.5
2.5
5.3

3.9
4.0
5.9
4.4
3.1
2.9
5.9

4.8
5.1
4.0
3.3
2.6
5.9

5.4
5.2
4.0
3.4
2.4
5.8

5.5
5.6
3.9
3.1
2.5
5.8

6.1
5.0
3.6
3.2
2.5
5.8

6.2
4.2
3.4
3.3
2.7
5.7

5.9
4.5
4.1
2.9
3.1
5.9

5.9
4.3
4.2
3.3
3.1
5.1

5.6
4.7
4.1
3.0
3.4
5.3

1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.

4.9
3.9
4.3
5.3

4.5
3.6
3.9
6.1

4.3
4.3
3.8
6.1

4.2
4.2
3.6
6.8

4.2
4.4
4.1
6.6

5.0
6.5
5.3
5.2
5.6

4.8
6.7
5.2
5.3
5.4

4.7
6.7
5.2
5.5
5.2

4.4
4.3
4.1
6.6
4.8
5.1
6.0
5.6
5.4
4.9

4.4
4.1
4.2
6.3
4.9
4.8
6.2
5.6
5.5
4.9

4.6
4.1
4.2
6.0
5.3
5.5
6.3
5.3
5.4
4.9

4.3

4.5
6.5
5.2
5.5
5.6

4.2
5.1
4.2
6.4
5.0
5.2
6.7
5.3
5.4
5.0

4.2

4.8
5.9
5.8
5.4
5.6

4.3
4.3
4.2
6.5
4.9
5.0
6.8
5.2
5.3
5.1

4.6
5.3
4.9
5.8
5.7
5.4
5.5
5.0

4.4
5.6
5.1
6.1
5.8
5.3
5.4
4.8

4.6

5.1

4.0

4.8

4.5
4.1
3.7
3.7
5.7
5.5
5.2

4.1
4.1
3.7
4.1
5.7
5.1
4.9

4.3
3.9
3.6
4.6
5.9
5.5
4.9

4.1
3.7
3.8
4.4
5.9
5.5
4.8

4.1
3.7
3.6
4.8
5.8
5.7
4.6

4.2
3.7
3.8
4.6
5.7
5.6
4.9

4.1
3.8
3.6
4.8
5.6
5.6
4.8

3.8
3.7
3.8
4.8
5.8
5.5
4.9

4.4
3.5
3.9
5.1
5.7
5.4
4.8

4.6
3.6
3.9
5.1
5.6
5.5
4.5

4.2
3.7
3.7
5.6
5.8
5.0
4.7

4.2
3.6
3.5
5.7
5.7
5.0
5.0

4.3
4.0
3.7
4.1
5.8
5.4
5.0

1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.
NOTE:

These :

•ntain revisions beginning with 1970.




110

3.8
5.9
4.4
3.8

3.5
4.0
6.1
4.2

3.6
5.2
5.3
4.0

3.8
6.1
4.6
3.7

4.5
4.7

2.7
5.5

2.5
5.8

2.8
5.8

4.6

4.2

4.3

4.0
5.8
5.6
4.8
6.3
5.4
5.4
5.6

4.0
6.6
5.0
4.8
6.7
5.2
5.4
5,2

4.2
6.4
4.9
5.0
6.3
5.5
5.4
4.9

4.4
4.2
4.4
5.6
5.1
5.8
5.9
5.3
5.4
4.9

4.4
4.2
4.1
6.1
5.2
5.1
6.3
5.4
5.4
5.2

4.6
3.8
4.1
3.7
3.7
4.6
5.8
5.6
4.8

4.3
3.7
4.1
3.7
3.8
4.9
5.7
5.5
4.8

4.1
3.8
4.3
3.6
3.7
5.5
5.7
5.2
4.7

4.5
3.8
4.2
3.8
3.7
4.8
5.7
5.4
4.8

C. Historical Data for Selected Series—Continued
Quarterly

Monthly
Year

Annual

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

1 Q

846. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE* BOTH SExES 16-19 YEARS OF AGE, LABOR FORCE SURVEY
(PERCENT)

12.2

8.6
13.5
12.5
7.6
8.3
6.8
12.5

9.4
14.6
10.9
8.4
8.7
7.3
13.6

8.7
15.1
10.3
8.3
8.1
10.0
12.1

9.2
13.4
12.2
8.2
8.5
7.6
12.6

11.0
10.1
10.9
16.0
15.8
16.1
16.9
14.3
17.1
15.8

11.7
12.6
13.4
15.9
15.1
14.7
16.0
16.3
17.7
15.6

11.0
9.7
13.1
14.9
15.3
16.4
15.3
14.4
16.3
17.1

11.3
11.2
11.1
14.6
13.5
14.4
17.2
15.8
16.9
16.3

10.8
11.7
11.4
16.3
14.4
14.2
16.3
14.3
17.6
16.7

11.1
10.4
11.4
17.3
15.2
14.6
17.5
14.2
17.2
15.7

11.2
10.8
12.5
15.6
15.4
15.7
16.1
15.0
17.0
16.2

11.0
11.1
11.6
15.9
14.6
14.7
16.8
14.7
17.2
16.2

14.5
12.6
13.7
11.8
12.6
16.9
17.0
15.6
14.1

13.0
11.8
13.8
12.2
11.6
17.4
16.8
15.5
14.6

13.3
12.1
13.0
12.7
11.8
17.3
16.9
15.5
14.4

16.4
12.8
12.1
12.5
12.1
13.4
17.0
17.7
14.6

15.4
13.2
12.6
12.7
12.2
14.8
16.9
15.8
14.8

14.4
12.7
13.1
12.6
12.5
15.6
16.9
16.1
14.3

13.6
12.2
13.5
12.2
12.0
17.2
16.9
15.5
14.4

14.8
12.8
12.9
12.7
12.2
15.2
16.9
16.2
14.5

14.0

11.5
10.1
11.5
16.0
16.1
15.3
17.1
14.1
16.1
16.7

11.3
9.8
11.0
17.9
14.9
14.5
18.0
14.5
17.4
15.7

13.9
12.4
13.4
12.0
12.2
15.7
16.9
16.7
14.3

14.7
12.8
12.9
12.0
12.6
16.2
16.7
16.2
14.3

10.5
11.9
14.3
8.3
8.2
6.7
13.0

9.5
13.2
12.0
7.9
7.6
7.1
13.6

7.0
13.4
13.3
6.7
8.9

9.3
13.8
12.2
8.3
8.4

9.7
14.3
11.2
8.7
8.8

9.6
15.0
10.7
8.2
8.5

13.4

10.5

12.9

1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.

11.7
10.6
11.6
14.4
14.0
14.6
17.1
16.2
15.8
16.7

11.3
11.4
10.5
14.6
12.9
13.1
17.4
16.0
17.7
15.8

11.0
11.5
11.2
14.7
13.6
15.6
17.1
15.1
17.1
16.3

10.7
10.9
11.1
17.2
15.0
14.2
16.4
15.1
16.8
17.0

10.9
11.9
11.4
16.3
14.3
13.9
15.8
14.2
18.7
16.4

10.8
12.2
11.7
15.4
13.9
14.6
16.6
13.6
17.2
16.8

10.4
11.2
11.8
17.9
14.5
13.9
17.3
13.9
18.1
14.7

1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.

16.8
13.0
11.9
12.0
12.0
13.6
17.3
17.5
14.3

16.7
12.4
12.9
12.9
11.9
13.3
16.4
18.3
15.4

15.8
13.1
11.6
12.7
12.3
13.3
17.2
17.4
14.2

16.2
13.0
12.1
11.8
12.0
14.8
16.5
16.7
15.3

14.8
13.6
12.8
12.5
12.4
14.2
17.2
15.3
15.0

15.3
13.0
12.9
13.9
12.2
15.5
16.9
15.5
14.0

14.5
12.9
13.0
13.8
12.8
14.8
17.1
15.4
14.3

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD
9.7
10.8
14.9
8.3
8.6
6.8
12.9

14.0

10.0
10.6
15.2
8.1
8.3
6.7
13.5

IV Q

8.5
15.4
11.1
7.6
7.6
11.8
12.6

8.5
15.8
10.3
7.7
8.4

8.5
10.0
15.2
8.5
9.3
6.9
12.1

III Q

9.1
14.0
9.5
9.5
8.2
8.6
11.4

8.8
14.6
10.9
8.3
8.9

1948.
1949.
1950.
1951.
1952.
1953.
1954.

II Q

847. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE/ WHITE* LABOR FORCE SURVEY
(PERCENT)

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1945. . .

1949. . .
1950. . .
1951.. .
1952. . .
5.0

5.9

1954...

4.5

4.9

5.0

5.5

5.3

1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.

4.5
3.5
3.8
5.2

4.1
3.6
3.6
5.7

4.0

4.3

3.8

5.9

6.7

6.7

4.6
5.9
5.1
5.0
5.0

4.3
6.2
4.8
5.3
4.9

4.8
6.2
4.8
5.0
4.9

4.6
6.2
4.7
5.1
4.8

4.6
6.3
4.8
5.2
4.5

6.6
4.4
4.8
6.2
4.8
4.9
4.7

6.8
4.5
4.9
6.3
4.8
5.1
4.3

6.7
4.6
5.1
5.9
5.0
4.8
4.4

1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.

4.3
3 5

4.5
3 4

4.3
3 4

4.4

4.2

4.2

3.9

4.0

3.8

3.4
3.1
4.4
5.4
5.1

3.3
3.2
3.2
4.6
5.4
5.1

3.4
3.2
3.1
4.7
5.6
5.1
4.2

3.3
3.1
3.4
5.0
5.4
5.0
4.2

3.3
3.0
3.6
5.5
5.3
4.5

3.4
3.0
3.8
5.3
5.1
4.5

3.2
3.0
4.0
5.5
5.3

3.1
3.0
4.1
5.4
5.3

3.1
3.0
4.4
5.5
5.2

5.3

5.6

6.4
4.9
5.1
5.9
5.0
4.8
4.5

5.1

4.7

4.4

4.8

5.3

5.6

4.7

s.'o

3.9

3.6
6.6
4.7
5.0
6.0
4.9
4.9

3.7
3.7
4.4
5.7
5.0
5.6
5.5
4.9
4.9

3.9
3.6
3.8
6.1
4.8
5.0
6.0
4.9
5.0
4.6

3 3
3.3
3.2
3.2
4.8
5.5
5.1
4.2

3.7
3.3
3.5
3.0
3.3
5.5
5.5
4.7
4.2

4.1
3.4
3.4
3.2
3.1
4.5
5.4
5.0
4.3

4.0
6.0
5.0
5.5

5.5
5.3
5.5

5.5
4.7
5.9

5.6
5.1
4.6

4.8
4.8
4.6

5.0
5.0
4.3

4.8
5.0
4.5

4.9
5.1

6.7
4.5
4.7
6.2
4.8
5.1

3 3

3 2

3 3

3 4

3 4

3.0
3.4
5.2
5.4
5.1
4.1

3.0
3.2
5.5
5.6
4.6
4.2

3.0
3.3
5.8
5.4
4.5
4.4

3.3
3.0
3.8
5.4
5.2
4.5

3.2
3.0
4.3
5.4
5.2
4.4

348. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, NEGRO AND OTHER RACES, LABOR FORCE SURVEY
(PERCENT)

AVERAGE FOR PERIOD

1945...
1946. . .
1947. . .
1948. . .
1949.. .

1951. . .
1953. . .
1954...

8.0

9.2

10.7

9.4

10.2

9.8

10.7

9.8

10.5

9.3

9.8

10.3

10.2

9*.9

1955.
1956.
1957.
1958.
1959.
1960.
1961.
1962.
1963.
1964.

9.1
8.3
8.0
10.5
11.5
10.0
12.0
11.5
11.0
10.4

10.1
7.4
7.2
12.6
11.7
9.3
12.8
11.1
11.6
9.6

8.9
7.9
7.0
12.9
11.4
10.8
12.4
11.3
11.0
9.7

9.2
8.1
7.2
13.8
9.8
10.1
12.8
12.2
10.3
9.9

8.4
8.5
7.5
13.5
10.2
9.7
13.2
10.9
11.4
9.8

7.3
9.2
8.2
13.0
9.8
10.1
12.7
11.0
10.7
9.5

7.9
9.1
7.9
13.3
10.5
10.1
12.4
10.6
10.2
9.8

9.1
8.6
7.5
12.8
10.6
9.8
12.5
11.1
10.1
9.7

8.5
8.6
8.5
12.7
10.3
9.1
12.7
10.3
10.6
9.4

8.8
7.4

8.4
8.1

8.2
8.1

9.4
7.9

12.0
11.3
10.5
12.5
9.8
11.0
9.3

11.3
10.3
11.4
11.6
10.7
11.2
8.9

12.5
10.8
12.1
11.7
11.2
10.1
9.0

12.0
11.5
10.0
12.4
11.3
11.2
9.9

8.3
8.6
7.6
13.4
9.9
10.0
12.9
11.4
10.8
9.7

8.5
8.8
8.0
12.9
10.5
9.7
12.5
10.7
10.3
9.6

8.5
7.9
8.9
11.9
10.8
11.3
11.9
10.6
10.8
9.1

8.7
8.3
7.9
12.6
10.7
10.2
12.4
10.9
10.8
9.6

1965.
1966.
1967.
1968.
1969.
1970.
1971.
1972.
1973.
1974.
1975.

9.0
7.2
7.6
7.3
6.7
6.7
9.8
10.9
8.8

9.3
6.9
7.6
7.5
6.1
7.2
9.7
10.6
9.0

8.5
7.4
7.8
7.3
6.3
7.2
9.4
10.3
8.9

8.4
7.2
7.0
6.5
6.5
8.1
9.7
9.5
9.3

7.7
7.4
7.6
6.4
6.3
7.7
10.0
10.0
9.1

8.0
7.3

8.5
7.3

7.5
8.1

7.8
7.0

7.5
7.1

7.6
7.0

6.5
6.5
8.5
9.5
9.5
8.9

6.8
6.5
8.1
9.9
9.9
9.2

6.4
6.5
8.5
9.9
9.8
8.9

6.2
6.4
8.6
10.1
10.0
9.3

6.6
6.3
8.9
10.3
10.1
8.4

6.8
6.4
9.2
9.5
9.9
8.8

7.1
7.8
7.4
6.5
5.9
9.6
10.3
9.5
8.4

8.9
7.2
7.7
7.4
6.4
7.0
9.6
10.6
8.9

8.0
7.3
7.2
6.5
6.4
8.1
9.7
9.7
9.1

7.9
7.5
7.2
6.5
6.5
8.4
10.0
9.9
9.1

7.4
7.3
7.6
6.6
6.2
9.2
10.0
9.8
8.5

8.1
7.3
7.4
6.7
6.4
8.2
9.9
10.0
8.9

10.1

10.3

10.2

These series contain revisions beginning with 1970.




Ill

G. Experimental Data and Analyses
Composite Indexes

(NOV.) (OCT.)

P

(JULY) (AUG.)

T

P

(JUL

T

P

T

111 hi 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N it II

1 1 1: Hi III II 1 II 1

in jiu
P

11

T

1 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1 1 III III

in

(NOV.) (NOV.)

III \\\

III

in in HI

Index: 1967=100

Old Inde;<es o f 12 Lead ing 1 ndica tors
(series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16. 17.

19, 23, 29, 31, 113)

r
810

Re verse tren d ad ustetJ

/
s i/
***s

/

1

y r*S
4 ^s,/

r

811 Pri or to tren d ad ustrr ent

*/* wv_
f^ ^w

/X
~ ^i v

N/

•vA

> 'x** s*

~f "S
^X ^

^4

III III

III IH'

III

90

-

80

-

70

-

60

s> ' ^

B

' _
-

r

III

-

^^

S*

^

\

ys

/*

sT

Ratio
Scale
190
180
- 170
160
150
— 140
— 130
— 120
- 110
- 100

~\

/
A
/
V
"\j
\
/
/
\r
V

I^V

f

!

y

II

140
130
120
110
100

90
80
70

III 11,1 111 III

111 III III III III III

i it

1 1 1 it i MI

II 1

III

III

1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975

Series 810:

Series

811:

Jan.
1973- 155.9
1974- 167. S
1975- r!52.8

Feb.
158.8
170.2
r!53.0

Mar.
161.3
172.3
rl51.2

Apr.
159,7
173.0
155.7

May
162.9
175.6
2
157.8

June
July
164.3 165.6
r!76.0 0)179.6

Aug.
167.3
r!77.9

Sept.
165.1
172.2

Oct.
166.8
168.5

Nov.
168.1
rl62.6

Dec.
165.6
r!58.9

121.5
125.1
108.9

123.3
126.3
r!08.6

124-8
127.5
r!06.9

123.1
127.4
109.7

125.1
128.9
2110.8

125.7 126.2
r!28.7 [H)rl30.8

127.0
129.2

124.9
124-5

125.7
121.4

126.2
116.7

123.9
rl!3.6

197319741975-

Current high values are indicated by E); "r" indicates revised.
iReverse trend adjusted index contains the same trend as the index of 5 coincident indicators (series 820).
2
Excludes series 12, 16, 31> and 113 for which data are not yet available.

112




G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns
This number indicates latest calendar month of
d a t a plot ted
( 12 = December.)

HOW TO READ CYCLICAL COMPARISON CHARTS
These charts show graphically, for selected indicators, the path of the current
business contraction beginning with the tentative peak date, N o v e m b e r 1973.
(This date is based on the deflated composite index of coincident indicators
BCD series 825.) To set the current cyclical movements into historical perspective, cyclical paths over generally similar historical periods are shown. Th e
graphic presentations of the data for the selected periods are superimposed
according to a special chart design, explained below:

1. The objective of the chart- is to compare
the pattern of the current business contra ction with corresponding historical
patterns to facilitate critical assessment
of the amplitude, duration, and severity of
the indicators' current movements.

Thi s scale shows
deviations (percent differences)
from reference
peak levels .

2. The vertical line represents reference
peak dates. The current business contraction, beginning with the tentative business
cycle high in November 1973, and the corresponding historical periods, beginning
with July 1957 and November 1969, are presented so that their peak dates are placed
along this vertical line.

3. The horizontal line represents the level
of data at the current tentative business
cycle high (November 1973). It also represents data levels at the selected earlier
business cycle peaks, July 1957 and November
1969.
The peak levels are aligned along
the horizontal line for each
business
recession depicted.

4. For most series, deviations
(percent
differences) from the current peak level
are computed and plotted. For series
measured in percent units (such as the unemployment rate), these units (actual data)
are plotted rather than deviations from
reference peak levels. The table on the
right shows the numerical values of these
deviations.

5. For series that move counter to movements in general business activity (e.g.,
the unemployment rate), an inverted scale
is used; i.e., declines in data are shown
as upward movements in the plotted lines,
and increases in data, as downward movements in plotted lines.

Design ations:
"C oincident, "
"Leading," "Lagging," and "Unclassified" indicate
the N B E R timing
class if ication
for the series.

This scale shows
a c t u a l series
units and applies
only to the current
business cycle
(heavy solid line).

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

Months from reference peaks

This scale measures
time in months
before (negative
side) a n d after
(positive side)
business cycle
peak dates.

6. In each chart four curves are shown. One curve describes the current business contraction (heavy solid line
). Two curves describe the 1957 and 1969 business recessions
(starred line:*-* and knotted line: . . ., respectively). The final curve (broken line
) represents the median pattern of the five post-World War II recessions (tho s e with
peaks in 1948, 1953, 1957, I960 and 1969). Deviations from reference peaks for all postWorld Wa£ II recession periods and the preceding year are presented in the adjacent table.
In addition, actual values are shown for the current period.

7. The business cycle (reference) peaks used in these charts are those designated by the
National Bureau of Economic Research as follows: Nov.l94£(lVQ 1948), July 1953(IIIQ 1953),
July 1957 (IIIQ 1957), May I960 (IIQ I960), Nov. 1969 (IVQ 1969).

NOTE: November 1973 is not designated a busmess cycle peak. This tentative, benchmark date for the current business recession has been
selected on the basis of the performance pattern of the deflated composite index of five coincident indicators - BCD series 825 It se^es
as a means of current economic analysis and may be changed as more information becomes available.




113

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns

MOS.
FROM
REF.
PF.AK

825. Five coincident indicators,
deflated
I

DEVIATIONS
FROM
11/73

I I II IIIII IIIIIII IIII IIIII III II I

CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA

f 10 NTH
AND
YEAR

41. Employees on nonagricultural payrolls

SF.RIF.5 825
1967=100
6
7
8

-2.5
-2.8
-2.k

138.6
138.2
138.8

5/71*
6/74
7/74

9
10
11
12

-2.8
-3.4
-k.2
-7.0

138.2
137. k
136.2
132.3

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
Ik
15
16

-9.8
-12.0
-12.7
-13. G

12/74
128.2
1/75
125.2
12k. 1
2/75
122.8
3/75

17
18

-lit. 2
-14.3

122.0
121.8

4/75
5/75

SERIE 5 kl
THOUS.
6
7
8

0.6
0.6
0.7

78357
78421
78479

5/74
6/74
7/74

9
10
11
12

1.0
1.2
1.2
0.6

78661
78844
78865
78404

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
Ik
15
16

-0.3
-0.9
-1.5
-2.0

77690
77227
76708
76368

12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75

17
18

-2.0
-1.9

76381
76443

4/75
5/75

SERIES

47. Industrial production index

125.7
125.8
125.5

5/74
6/74
7/74

9
10
11
12

-1.8
-1.5
-2.1
-4.5

125.2
125.6
124.8
121.7

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
14
15
16

-7.9
10.8
12.8
13.9

117.4
113.7
111.2
109.8

12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75

17
18

14.1
14.4

109.5
109.2

4/75
5/75

MOS . DEVIFROM ATIONS
FROM
RF.F.
11/73
PF.AK

SERIES

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

Months from reference peaks
NOTE- TABLES SHOWING DEVIATIONS FROM PEAK LEVELS
NOVEMBER 1973 IS NOT DESIGNATED A BUSINESS
ON THE BASIS OF THE PERFORMANCE PATTERN OF
MEANS OF CURRENT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND MAY

114



CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA

MONTH
AMD
YEAR

43
PERCENT

5.2
5.2
5.3

5.2
5.2
5.3

5/74
6/74
7/74

10
11
12

5.4
5.8
6.0
6.6

5.4
5.8
6.0
6.6

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
14
15
16

7.2
8.2
8.2
8.7

7.2
8.2
8.2
8.7

12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75

17
18

8.9
9.2

8.9
9.2

4/75
5/75

9

-12

47
1967=100

-1.4
-1.3
-1.6

B

43. Unemployment rate, total
(inverted)

- 8

-J 9

-12 -6

0

+6

+12

+18

Months from reference peaks
FOR ALL POST-WORLD WAR II CYCLES ARE SHOWN I ?•: THE JANUARY 1975 ISSUE FOR THESE SERIES
CYCLE PEAK. THIS TENTATIVE, BENCHMARK DATE FOR THE CURRENT BUSINESS RECESSION HAS BEEN SELECTED
THE DEFLATED COMPOSITE INDEX OF FIVE COINCIDENT INDICATORS- BCD SERIES 825. IT SERVES AS A
BE CHANGED AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns

MOS.
FROM
REF.
PEAK

DEVIATIONS
FROM
11/73

CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA

SERIES

19. Stock prices, 500 common stocks

.

1
HOURS

-0.7
-1.2
-1.0

40.3
40.1
40.2

5/74
6/74
7/74

10
11
12

-1.0
-1.5
-1.2
-2.7

40.2
40.0
40.1
39.5

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
14
15
16

-3.0
-3.4
-4.4
-4.4

39.4
39.2
38.8
38.8

12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75

17
18

-3.9
-3.9

39.0
39.0

it/75
5/75

9

SERIES

5. Initial claims for State unemployment
insurance (inverted)

MONTH
AND
YEAR

19
1941-43 = 10

6
7
8

-12.1
-12.0
-18.8

89.67
89.79
82.82

5/74
6/74
7/74

9
10
11
12

-25.5
-33.2
-31.9
-29.7

76.03
68.12
69.44
71.74

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
14
15
16

-34.3
-28.9
-21.5
-17.9

67.07
72.56
80.10
83.78

12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75

17
18
19

-17.0
-11.7
-10.6

84.72
90.10
91.18

4/75
5/75
6/75

• 70

Percent

—i —20

• 200

• 175

SERIES

0300

-1-40

,350

+60

• 400

-1-80

• 450

6
7
8

15.9
21.9
15.5

291
306
290

5/74
6/74
7/74

9
10
11
12

32.3
44.2
63.3
82.5

332
362
410
458

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
14
15
16

100.8
118.3
119.1
117.1

504
548
550
545

12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75

17
18

106.0
97.6

517
496

4/75

SERIES

+100

—1+120

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

Months from reference peaks
NOTE:

+24

• 500

«550

5
THOUS.

• 150

5/75

29
1967=100

6
7
8

-17.3
-20.4
-25.8

99.9
96.1
89.6

5/74
6/74
7/74

9
10
11
12

-33.8
-39.2
-42.1
-45.0

80.0
73.5
69.9
66.4

8/74
9/74
10/74
11/74

13
14
15
16

-40.3
-50.8
-50.0
-51.7

72.1
59.4
60.4
58.3

12/74
1/75
2/75
3/75

17
18

-40.3
-35.2

72.1
78.3

4/75
5/75

• 75

-1-40

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

Months from reference peaks

TABLES SHOWING DEVIATIONS FROM PEAK LEVELS FOR ALL POST-WORLD WAR II CYCLES ARE SHOWN IN THE JANUARY 1975 ISSUE FOR

THESE SERIES.

NOVEMBER 1973 IS NOT DESIGNATED A BUSINESS CYCLE PEAK. THIS TENTATIVE, BENCHMARK DATE FOR THE CURRENT BUSINL^S RECESSION HAS BEEN SELECTED
ON THE BASIS OF THE PERFORMANCE PATTERN OF THE DEFLATED COMPOSITE INDEX OF F I V E COINCIDENT INDICATORS--BCD SERIES 825. IT SERVES AS A
MEANS OF CURRENT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND MAY BE CHANGED AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES A V A I L A B L E .




115

G. Experimental Data and Analyses—Continued
Recession Comparisons: Current and Selected Historical Patterns

QRTRS DEVIFROM ATIONS
FROM
REF.
11/73
PEAK

CURRENT QUARTER
AND
ACTUAL
DATA
YEAR

S E R I E ;5 205

B I L . POL

2

-2.2

827.1

3

-2.7

823.1 1 1 1/71*

i*

-i*.9

80*1.0

IV/71*

5

-7.3

780.0

1/75

ACTUAL
DATA
FROM
11/73

CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA

MONTH
AND
YEAR

MOS.
FROM
REF.
PEAK

1 \/7k

S E R I E .5 Ill*
PERCENT

8.1*3
8.11*
7.75

8.t*3
8.11*
7.75

5/71*
6/7«*
7/71*

9
10
11
12

8.71*
8.36
7.2*1
7.58

8.71*
8.36
7.21*
7.58

8/71*
9/71*
10/7li
11/71*

- 3

13
It*
15
16

7.18
6.1*9
5.58
5.51*

7.18
6.1*9
5.58
5.51*

12/71*
1/75
2/75
3/75

- 2

17
18
19

5. 69
5.32
5.01*

5.69
5.32
5.01*

i*/75
5/75
6/75

-» 1
781c. Change in consumer price index,
6-month spans, centered

MOS.
FROM
REF.
PEAK

DEVIATIONS
FROM
11/73
S E R I E 5;

48. Man-hours in nonagricultural
establishments

CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA

MONTH
AND
YEAR

Q

us

-1+12

BIL.M-HRS .

0.3
0.2
0.1

151.90
151.79
151.59

5/71*
6/71*
7/71*

9
10
11
12

0.6
0.9
-0.8

n.3

151.96
152.36
152.72
150.23

8/71*
9/71*
10/71*
11/71+

13
li*
15
16

-1.5
-2.1
-3.3
-3.7

11*9.16
11*8.29
11*6.39
11*5.90

12/71*
1/75
2/75
3/75

17
18

-3.5
-3.3

11*6.15
11*6.36

i*/75
5/75

ACTUAL
DATA
FROM
11/73

CURRENT
ACTUAL
DATA

MONTH
AND
YEAR

MOS.
FROM
RF.F.
PEAK

| E/ncfass/f/eJ"!

+10

SERIES 781
PCT. CHANGE

• U5

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

Months from reference peaks

+24

11.8
12.1
12.7

11.8
12.1
12.7

5/7t*
6/71*
7/71*

9
10
11
12

12.5
12.2
11.7
10.1*

12.5
12.2
11.7
10. l*

8/71*
9/71*
10/71*
11/71*

13
11*
15

8.5
7.8
6.6

8.5
7.8
6.6

12/71*
1/75
2/75

-J 0

-12

-6

0

+6

+12

+18

+24

Months from reference peaks

NOTE: TABLES SHOWING DEVIATIONS FROM PEAK LEVELS FOR ALL POST-WORLD WAR II CYCLES ARE SHOWN IN THE FEBRUARY 1975 ISSUE FOR THESE SERIES.
NOVEMBER 1973 IS NOT DESIGNATED A BUSINESS CYCLE PEAK. THIS TENTATIVE, BENCHMARK DATE FOR THE CURRENT BUSINESS RECESSION HAS BEEN SELECTED
ON THE BASIS OF THE PERFORMANCE PATTERN OF THE DEFLATED COMPOSITE INDEX OF F I V E COINCIDENT INDICATORS-- BCD SERIES 825. IT SERVES AS A
MEANS OF CURRENT ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND MAY BE CHANGED AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

116



ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series

Tables

Charts

Historical
Series
data
ascriptions
issue date) issue date)

A

Accession rate, manufacturing
Anticipations and intentions
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment . . .
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Capacity, manufacturers' adequacy
Consumer sentiment, index
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Inventories, manufacturers', book value
Inventories, manufacturers', condition of
Inventories, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Orders, new, manufacturing, Dl
Prices selling, manufacturing Dl
Prices, selling, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Prices, selling, retail trade, Dl
Prices, selling, wholesale trade, Dl
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Sales manufacturers'
Automobiles
Expenditures, personal consumption, NIA
Gross auto product, constant dollars, NIA

2
*61
D61
416
435
D446
412
414
D450
D440
D462
D460
D466
0464
D442
410
D444
234
249

20

74

3/75

8/68

27,43,44
46
45
45
46
45
45
47
46
47
47
47
47
46
45
46

78,84
84
84
84
85
84
84
85
84
85
85
85
85
85
84
85

12/74
12/74

11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68

11
18

70
72

1/75
1/75
12/74
1/75
1/75
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
1/75
12/74
9/74
9/74

10/69

B
Balance of payments
Balances
Banking and other capital transactions net
Current account
Current account and long-term capital
Goods and services
Goods, services and remittances
Government grants and capital transactions, net
Liabilities, liquid
Liabilities, liquid and nonliquid . .
Liquidity, net
Merchandise trade
Reserve position, U.S. official
Reserve transactions balance
Exports
Goods and services
Income on U.S. investments abroad
Investment, foreign direct, in the U.S
Investment income, military sales and services
Merchandise, adjusted
Military sales to foreigners
Orders, new, manufacturers' durable goods
Orders new nonelectrical machinery
Securities, U.S., purchases by foreigners
Total, excluding military aid
Transportation and services, receipts
Travelers, foreign, receipts from
Imports
Goods and services
Income on foreign investment in the U.S
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services
Investments abroad, U.S. direct
Merchandise, adjusted, excluding military
Military expenditures abroad, U.S
Securities, foreign, U S purchases
Total, general
Transportation and services, payments for
Travelers abroad, U.S., payments by
Bank loans to businesses loans outstanding
Bank loans to businesses net change
Bank rates - See Interest rates.
Banking and other capital transactions, net, BOP
Bonds -See Interest rates.
Borrowing - See Credit.
Budget - See Government.
Building - See Construction.
Building permits, new private housing
Business equipment ratio to consumer goods
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment, Dl
Business failures, current liabilities
Business formation
Business incorporations
Business inventories- See Inventories.
Business loans - See Bank loans.
Buying policy, production materials

575
517
519
250
515
570
530
532
521
500
534
522

53
49
49
49,51
49
53
50
50
49
48
50
49

88
87
87
87
87
88
87
87
87
86
87
87

252
542
560
540
536
546
506
508
564
502
548
544

51
52
53
51
51
52
48
48
53
48
52
52

87
88
88
87
87
88
86
86
88
86
88
88

1/75
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
4/74
5/74
7/74
1/75
1/75
7/74

253
543

51
52

87
88

1/75

5/69
5/69

51
53
51
52
53
48
52
52
36,43
33

87
88
87
88
88
86
88
88
82
81

7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
1/75
1/75
7/74
4/75
4/75

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
11/72
11/72

53

88

7/74

5/69

541
561
537
547
565
512
549
545
*72
112
575

*29
853
*61
D61
14
*12
13

7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
1/75
7/74

5/69

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

7/74
7/74

7/74

26,40
62
27,43,44
46
34
25,39
25

78
96
78,84
84
81
77
77

4/75
3/75
12/74
12/74
4/75

28

79

11/74

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
8/68#
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

4/69
11/68
11/68
11/68

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Civilian labor force, total
Coincident indicators, five, Cl
Coincident indicators, five, Cl, rate of change
Coincident indicators, five, deflated, Cl
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, net change .
Compensation
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
Compensation of employees, NIA
Compensation of employees, as percent of national
income, NIA
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm
Earnings, real average hourly, production
workers, private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings real spendable average weekly
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . .
Composite indexes
Coincident indicators
Five coinciders
Five coinciders, deflated
Five coinciders, rate of change
Lagging indicators, six
Leading indicators
Capital investment commitments
Inventory investment and purchasing
Marginal employment adjustments
Profitability
Sensitive financial flows
Twelve leaders, original trend
Twelve leaders, reverse trend adjusted
Construction
Building permits, new private housing
Contracts, total value
Contracts awarded for commercial and indus. bldgs. .
Expenditures, business, and machinery and
equipment sales
Housing starts
Residential structures, GPDI, constant dol., NIA ...
Residential structures, GPDI, current dollars, NIA. . .
Consumer goods, ratio of business equipment to
Consumer installment debt
Consumer installment debt, net change
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Consumer prices - See also International comparisons.
All items
All items change in
Commodities less food
Food
Services
Consumer sentiment, index
Consumption expenditures, personal - See Personal
consumption expenditures.
Contracts and orders, plant and equipment
Corporate profits - See Profits.
Costs - See Labor costs and Price indexes.
Credit
Bank loans to businesses, change in
Borrowing, total private
Commercial and industrial loans outstanding
Consumer installment debt
Consumer installment debt, net change
Consumer installment loans, delinquency rate
Mortgage debt change in
Current account balance BOP
Current account and long-term capital, balance, BOP ....

841
820
820
825
*72
112

60
37
65
37
36,43
33

Tables

94
83

Series
Historical
data
escriptions
(issue date] issue date)

83
82
81

6/75
5/74
6/74
5/74
4/75
4/75

4/72
11/68
11/68
10/72
11/72

745

58

92

4/75

10/72

745C
280

59
16

92
71

4/75
10/74

10/72
10/69

280A

19

73

10/74

10/69

746

58

93

4/75

10/72

746C

59

93

4/75

10/72

740

58

92

1/75

6/72

740C

59

92

1/75

6/72

741

58

92

1/75

6/72

741 C
859
748
749
53

59
58
59
59
23

92
92
93
93
76

1/75
2/75
10/74
10/74
8/74

6/72
10/72
6/72
6/72
7/68

820
825
820
830

37
37
65
37

83
83

11/68

83

5/74
5/74
6/74
5/74

814
815
813
816
817
811
810

38
38
38
38
38
112
112

83
83
83
83
83
112
112

5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74

5/74
5/74

*29
8
9

26,40
25
26

78
77
77

4/75

4/69

69
28
248
244
853
66
*113
39

27
26
18
12
62
36
34,41
34

78
78
72
70
96
82
81
81

8/74
4/75
9/74
9/74
3/75
3/75
3/75
4/74

9/68#
6/72

56,66
56
56
56
56
45

90,103
90
90
90
90
84

6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
1/75

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
11/68

*10

25,39

77

4/75

9/68

112
110
*72
66
*113
39
33
517
519

33
34
36,43
36
34,41
34
33
49
49

81
81
82
82
81
81
81
87
87

4/75
10/74
4/75
3/75
3/75
4/74
4/75
7/74
7/74

11/72
7/64
11/72
10/72
10/72
11/72

625
547
546
621
616
648
647
264

55
52
52
55
55
55
55
14,55

89
88
88
89
89
89
71,89

4/74
7/74
7/74
4/74
4/74
8/74
8/72
10/74

39
296

34
17

81
72

4/74
10/74

11/72
10/69

. . . D61
D11

46
63

84
97

12/74
5/74

11/68

781
781 C
783
782
784
435

11/68
11/68

6/75

10/69
11/68
10/72
10/72
11/72

6/75
6/75

D
26

12/74

C

Canada - See International comparisons.
Capacity manufacturers', adequacy of
Capacity, ratio of output to
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog
Capital appropriations, mfg newly approved
Capital appropriations, newly approved, Dl
Capital consumption allowances, NIA
Capital investment - See Investment, capital.
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Cash flow, net, corporate, constant dollars
Cash flow, net, corporate, current dollars

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

416
850
97
11
D11
296

45
62
27
26
63
17

84
96
78
77
97
72

1/75
8/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
10/74

814
35
34

38
31
31

83
80
80

5/74
8/74
8/74

11/68

10/69

1/72
1/72

Defense
Contract awards, military prime
Military expenditures abroad, U.S., BOP
Military sales to foreigners, BOP
Obligations incurred, procurement
Obligations incurred, total
Orders, new, defense products
Orders, new, defense products industries
Purchases of goods and services, NIA
Deficit - See Government.
Deflators - See Price indexes.
Delinquency rate, consumer installment loans
Depreciation, NIA
Diffusion indexes
Business expenditures, new plant and equipment
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing

5/69
5/69

9/68#
10/69

*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.




117

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Diffusion indexes-Con.
Employees, manufacturing and trade
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, components .
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial production
Industrial production, components
Initial claims, avg. wkly., unemployment insurance . .
Inventories, manufacturing and trade
Orders new durable goods industries
Orders, new, durable goods industries, components .
Orders, new, manufacturing
Prices, 500 common stocks
Prices selling manufacturing
Prices, selling, manufacturing and trade
Prices, selling, retail trade
Prices, selling, wholesale trade
Prices, wholesale, manufactured goods
Prices, wholesale, manufactured goods, components .
Profits, manufacturing
Profits, net, manufacturing and trade
Sales, net, manufacturing and trade
Sales, retail stores
Sales, retail stores, components
Workweek, average, production workers, mfg
Workweek, average, production workers, mfg.,
components
Disposable personal income - See Income.

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Tables

Charts

D446
D41
D41
D23
D23
D47
D47
D5
D450
D6
D6
D440
D19
0462
0460
0466
0464
058
058
034
0442
0444
054
054
01

46
64
63
64
63
47
63
46
63
47
47
47
47
64
63
46
46
64
63

01

85
98
100
97
100
98
101
98
85
97
99
84
97
85
85
85
85
98
102
97
85
85
98
102
97

Historical
Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)

12/74
2/75
10/74

11/68

4/69

3/75
4/74
12/74
10/74

6/69
11/68

12/74
10/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
7/74

11/68
5/69
11/68
11/68
11/68
11/68
6/69

1/75
12/74
12/74
3/75

11/68
11/68
6/72

2/75

99

E
Earnings - See Compensation.
Employment and unemployment
Accession rate, manufacturing
Civilian labor force total
Employed persons in civilian labor force
Employees, manufacturing and trade, Dl
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, components .
Employees on nonagricultural payrolls, Dl
Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
Help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed
Initial claims, average weekly, unemployment
insurance
Initial claims, avg. wkly, unemployment insur., Dl . .
Layoff rate manufacturing
Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
Man-hours in nonagric. establishments, rate of chg. . .
Marginal employment adjustments, Cl
Overtime hours production workers mfg
Persons engaged in nonagricultural activities
Unemployed persons in civilian labor force, total . . .
Unemployment rate, both sexes, 16-19 years
Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over
Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over
Unemployment rate, insured, average weekly
Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over
Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present .
Unemployment rate, Negro and other races
Unemployment rate, total

2
841
842
0446
*41
041
041
46
860

*5
05
3
48
48
813
21
42
843
846
845
*44
45
844
40
848
*43
847
Workweek, production workers, manufacturing . . . . «1
Workweek, production workers, mfg., components . . 01
Workweek, production workers, manufacturing, Dl .
01
Equipment - See Investment, capital.
Exports - See Balance of payments and Foreign trade.

20
60
60
46
21,41
64
21
62
20,39
63
20
21
65
38
20
21
60
60
60
22,43
22
60
22
60
22,41
60
20,39

63

74
94
94
85
75
100
98
74
96

3/75
6/75
6/75
12/74
2/75

74
98
74
74

6/75
4/74
3/75
3/75
3/75
5/74
2/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
3/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
2/75

83
74
75
94
94
94
75
75
94
75
94
75
94
74
99
97

2/75*
3/75
3/75

8/68
4/72
4/72
11/68
8/68

12/74

6/69
6/69
8/68#
8/68#
8/68#
12/74
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
6/69
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
8/68

2/75

F
Federal funds rate
Federal Government - See Government.
Final sales - See Sales.
Financial flows, sensitive, Cl
Fixed weighted price index, NIA
Foreign series - See International comparisons.
Foreign trade - See also Balance of payments.
Balance, goods and services NIA
Balance, merchandise trade
Exports, goods and services, NIA
Exports, merchandise, excl. military aid shipments . .
Imports, goods and services, NIA
Imports, merchandise
Net exports of goods and services, NIA
Net exports of goods and services, percent of
GNP, NIA
France - See International comparisons.
Free reserves

119

35

82

6/74

817
211

38
56

83
90

5/74
8/74

250
500
252
502
253
512
250

13
48
13
48
13
48
13

71
86
71
86
71
86
71

9/74

11/73

1/75
9/74

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

1/75
9/74
1/75
9/74

250A

19

73

9/74

10/69

93

35

82

10/74

11/72

G
Government - See also Balance of Payments and Defense.
Budget, NIA
Federal expenditures
Federal receipts
Federal surplus or deficit
Government surplus or deficit, total

602
601
600
298

54
54
54
17

89
89
89
72

8/74
8/74
8/74
10/74

7/68#
7/68#
7/68#
10/69

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Government-Con.
Government grants and capital transactions, BOP
Government purchases of goods and services, NIA
Federal Government, constant dollars
Federal Government, current dollars
Federal Government, percent of GNP
Federal, State and local governments
National defense
State and local governments, constant dollars
State and local governments, current dollars
State and local governments, percent of GNP
Gross national product
Auto product, gross, constant dollars, NIA
GNP, constant dollars, NIA
GNP, constant dollars, differences, NIA
GNP, constant dollars, percent changes, NIA
GNP current dollars NIA
GNP, current dollars, differences, NIA
GNP, current dollars, percent changes, NIA
GNP, gap (potential less actual)
GNP, potential, constant dollars
Per capita GNP, constant dollars, NIA
Per capita GNP current dollars NIA
Price deflator, implicit, NIA
Price deflator, implicit, differences, NIA
Price deflator, implicit, percent changes, NIA
Price index, fixed weighted, gross private
product, NIA
Price index, fixed weighted, gross private
product, change in, NIA
Gross private domestic investment - See Investment,
capital.

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

570

53

263
262
262A
260
264
267
266
266A

18
14
19
14
14,55
18
14
19

249
*205

205B
205C
*200
200B
200C
207
206
217
215
210
210B
210C

Tables

88

2
1
3
1
1,89
2
1
3




7/74

5/69

10/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
10/74
10/74
10/74
10/74

11/73
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
11/73
10/69
10/69

18
72
9,18,23, 69,76,
42,61
95
69
65*"
69
9,23,42 69,76
69
65
69
61
95
61
95
9
69
9
69
9
69
69
69

8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
1/75
1/75
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74

9/74
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69

211

56

90

8/74

211C

56

90

8/74

Help-wanted advertising in newspapers
46
Help-wanted advertising, ratio to number of persons
unemployed
860
Hours of production workers, manufacturing
Average weekly overtime
21
Average workweek
*1
Components
01
Diffusion index
01
Housing
Housing starts
28
Housing units authorized by local bldg. permits .... *29
Residential structures, constant dollars, GPDI, NIA .
248
Residential structures, current dollars, GPDI, NIA . . 244
Residential structures, percent of GNP, GPDI, NIA .
244A
Vacancy rate rental housing
857

21

74

3/75

62

96

3/75

20
20,39

2/75
2/75

63

74
74
99
97

26
26,40
18
12
19
62

78
78
72
70
73
96

4/75
4/75
9/74
9/74
9/74
5/74

6/72
4/69

9

69
69
69

8/74
8/74
8/74

10/69
10/69
10/69

16

71

10/74

10/69

19

73

10/74

10/69

58

92

4/75

10/72

59

92

4/75

10/72

H
12/74

12/74
8/68

2/75

10/69
10/69
10/72

1
Implicit price deflator GNP
210
Differences
210B
Percent changes
210C
Imports - See Balance of payments and Foreign trade.
Income
Compensation of employees, NIA
280
Compensation of employees, as percent of
national income, NIA
280A
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
745
Compensation, average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm, percent change
745C
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm
746
Compensation, real average hourly, all employees,
private nonfarm percent change
746C
Disposable personal income, constant dollars, NIA . . 225
Disposable personal income, current dollars, NIA . . .
224
Disposable personal income, per capita, constant
dollars, NIA
227
Disposable personal income, per capita, curr. dol., NIA
226
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm
740
Earnings, average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm percent change
740C
Earnings, real average hourly, production workers,
private nonfarm
741
Earnings, real average hourly, production workers,
741 C
private nonfarm, percent change
Earnings, real spendable, average weekly
859
Income on foreign investments in U S BOP
543
Income on U.S. investments abroad, BOP
542
Interest, net, NIA
288
Interest, net, percent of national income, NIA
288A
540
Investment income, military sales and services, BOP .
Investment income of foreigners, military
expenditures and services BOP
541
National income NIA
220
Personal income monthly
*52
Personal income NIA
222
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation
adjustment, NIA
286
Profits, corporate, and inventory valuation
286A
adjustment, percent of national income, NIA

58

93

4/75

10/72

59
10
10

93
69
69

4/75
8/74
8/74

10/72
10/69
10/69

10
10

69
69

9/74
9/74

10/69
10/69

58

92

1/75

6/72

59

92

1/75

6/72

58

92

1/75

6/72

59
58
52
52
16
19
51

92
92
88
88
72
73
87

1/75
2/75
1/75
1/75
10/74
10/74
7/74

6/72
10/72
5/69
5/69
10/69
10/69
5/69

51
10
23,42
10

87
69
76
69

7/74
8/74
8/74
8/74

5/69
10/69
7/68
10/69

16

72

10/74

10/69

19

73

10/74

10/69

*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators. #The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion inde)
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.

118

Historical Series
data
descriptions
(issue date) (issue date)

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Income-Con.
Proprietors' income, NIA
Proprietors' income, pet. of national income, NIA . .
Rental income of persons, NIA
Rental income of persons, percent of national
income, NIA
Wage and benefit decisions, first year
Wage and benefit decisions, life of contract
Wages and salaries, mining, mfg., and construction . .
Industrial materials prices
Industrial materials prices, components
Industrial materials prices Dl
Industrial production - See also International comparisons.
U S components
U.S., Dl
U.S., index
U S rate of change
Insured unemployment
Avg. wkly. initial claims for unemployment insur. . .
Avg. wkly. initial claims for unemployment insur., Dl
Average weekly insured unemployment rate
Interest net NIA
Interest, net, as percent of national income, NIA
Interest rates
Business loans, short-term, bank rates
Corporate bond yields
Federal funds rate
Mortgage yields, residential
Municipal bond yields
Prime rate charged by banks
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields
International comparisons
Consumer prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Industrial production
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
OECD, European countries
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Stock prices
Canada
France
Italy
Japan
United Kingdom
United States
West Germany
Inventories
Business inventories, change in, NIA
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Total, constant dollars
Total current dollars
Total percent of GNP
Finished goods, book value, manufacturers'
Inventories to sales, ratio, mfg. and trade
Inventory investment and purchasing, Cl
Inventory valuation adjustment - See Profits.
Manufacturers', book value
Manufacturers', condition of
Manufacturing and trade, book value
Manufacturing and trade, change in
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Materials and supplies, manufacturers', change in,
book value
Materials purchased, higher inventories
Production materials, buying policy
Investment, capital
Capital appropriations, manufacturing, backlog . . . .
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing
Capital appropriations, new, manufacturing, Dl . . . .
Capital investment commitments, Cl
Construction contracts, commercial and industrial . .
Construction contracts, total value
Construction expenditures, business, and machinery
and equipment sales
Equipment, business, ratio to consumer goods
Gross private domestic investment, NIA
Equipment, producers' durable
Inventories, business, change in - See Inventories.
Nonresidential, total, constant dollars
Nonresidential, total, current dollars
Nonresidential total percent of GNP
Structures, nonresidential
Structures, residential, constant dollars
Structures, residential, current dollars
Structures, residential, percent of GNP
Total

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

282
282A
284

284A
748
749
53
*23
D23
023

Tables

Historical
Series
data
escriptions
issue date) ssue date)

16
19
16

71
73
71

10/74
10/74
10/74

10/69
10/69
10/69

19
59
59
23
30,40

73
93
93
76
79
100
97

10/74
10/74
10/74
8/74
10/74

10/69
6/72

10/74

4/69

3/75
3/75
11/74

11/68
11/68

63

101
98
76,103

6/72
7/68
4/69

D47
D47
*47
47

64
23,42 67
65

*5
D5
45
288
288A

20,39
63
22
16
19

74
98
75
72
73

6/75
4/74
3/75
10/74
10/74

6/69
6/69
6/69
10/69
10/69

*67
116
119
118
117
109
114
115

36,43
35
35
36
35
36
35
35

82
82
82
82
82
82
82
82

7/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74

12/74
7/64
11/73
7/64
7/64
11/73
7/64
7/64

133
136
137
138
132
781
135

66
66
66
66
66
56,66
66

103
103
103
103
103
90,103
103

11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
6/74
11/74

9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
9/72
5/69
9/72

67
67
67
67
67
67
23,42,67
67

103
103
104
104
104
103
76,103
104

7/74
1/74
1/74
7/74
1/74
1/74
3/75
1/74

10/72
10/72
10/72
10/72

143
146
147
148
142
19
145

68
68
68
68
68
68
68

104
104
104
104
104
104
104

11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
11/74
12/74
11/74

271
275
246
245
245A
65
851
815

15
15
18
12,28
19
29
62
38

71
71
72
70,78
73
79
96
83

10/74
10/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
4/74
12/74
5/74

412
414
*71
*31
D450

45
45
29,43
28,40
47

84
84
79
78
85

1/75
1/75
12/74
12/74
12/74

123
126
127
128
121
122
*47
125

10/72
11/68
10/72

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
9/68
2/69

11/68
11/68
2/69
2/69
11/68

20
37
26

28
28
28

79
78
79

4/74
4/75
11/74

97
11
D11
814
9
8

27
26
63
38
26
25

78
77
97
83
77
77

5/74
5/74
5/74
5/74
6/75

69
853

27
62

78
96

8/74
3/75

9/68 #
11/68

243

12

70

9/74

10/69

247
241
241 A
242
248
244
244A
240

18
12
19
12
18
12
19
12

72
70
73
70
72
70
73
70

9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74

9/68
12/74
12/74

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series

Charts

nvestment, capital-Con.
Orders, new, capital goods industries, nondefense . . .
24
Plant and equipment, contracts and orders
*10
Plant and equipment, new business expenditures . . . *61
Plant and equipment, new business expenditures, Dl
D61
nvestment, foreign, BOP
Foreign direct investments in the U.S
560
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
564
Income on foreign investments in the U.S
543
Income on U.S. investments abroad
542
Investment income of foreigners, military
541
expenditures and services
Investment income, U.S., military sales and services .
540
U.S. direct investments abroad
561
U.S. purchases of foreign securities
565
taly - See International comparisons.

Tables

Historical
Series
escriptions
data
issue date) issue date)

26
25,39
27,43,44
46

77
77
78,84
84

8/74
4/75
12/74
12/74

9/68
9/68
11/68
11/68

53
53
52
52

88
88
88
88

7/74
7/74
1/75
1/75

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

51
51
53
53

87
87
88
88

7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

68
*62
63

32
32,43
32

80
80
80

8/74
8/74
4/75

7/68
11/68
10/72

63C
*17

32
30,41

80
80

4/75
8/74

10/72
11/68

830
3

37
20

83
74

5/74
3/75

11/68
8/68#

530

50

87

7/74

5/69

532
14
521

50
34
49

87
81
87

7/74
4/75
7/74

5/69

48
48
813

21
65
38

74

3/75
3/75
5/74

8/68#
8/68#

83

85
102

33
33

81
81

1/75
1/75

10/72
10/72

103
33
118

33
33
36

81
81
82

1/75
4/75
6/74

10/72

26
25,39
55
55
25,39

77
77
89

8/74
4/75

9/68
9/68

8/74
8/72
8/74

9/68#
9/68

J

Japan - See International comparisons.

L
Labor cost per unit
.abor cost per unit
Labor cost per unit
Labor cost per unit
percent change

of
of
of
of

gross product
output, manufacturing
output, total private economy
output, total private economy,

Labor force - See Employment and unemployment,
.agging indicators, six, Cl
.ayoff rate, manufacturing
.eading indicators - See Composite indexes.
Liabilities, liquid, to all foreigners, BOP
Liabilities, liquid and certain nonliquid, to foreign
official agencies, BOP
Liabilities of business failures
Liquidity balance, net, BOP
Loans - See Credit.

M
Machinery - See Investment, capital,
vlan-hours in nonagricultural establishments
vlan-hours in nonagricultural establishments, rate of chg. .
Marginal employment adjustments Cl
Merchandise trade - See Balance of payments and Foreign
trade.
Military - See Defense.
Money supply, change in
Money supply (Ml)
Money supply plus time deposits (M2)
Money supply, time deposits and deposits at
nonbank thrift institutions (M3)
Mortgage debt net change
Mortgage yields residential

7/64

N

National defense - See Defense.
Mational Government - See Government.
Mational income - See Income.
New orders, manufacturers'
Capital goods industries, nondefense
Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
Defense products
Defense products industries
Durable goods industries
Components
Diffusion index
Export orders, durables except autos
Export orders, nonelectrical machinery
New orders, manufacturing, Dl
Nonresidential fixed investment, GPDI, NIA
Constant dollars total
Current dollars total
Percent of GNP, total
Structures

24
*10
648
647
*6
D6
D6
506
508
0440

63
48
48
46

77
99
97
86
86
84

10/74
4/74
5/74
12/74

247
241
241 A
242

18
12
19
12

72
70
73
70

9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74

121

67

104

1/74

32,43
58
59
58
62
20

80
93
93
93
96
74

8/74
4/75
4/75
4/75
8/74
2/75

8/68#
11/68

10/69
10/69
10/69

0

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69

OECD, European countries, industrial production
Orders - See New orders and Unfilled orders.
Output, labor cost per unit of
Output per man-hour, total private economy
Output per man-hour, total private economy, change in . .
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
Output to capacity, manufacturing
Overtime hours of production, mfg., avg. weekly

*62
770
770C
858
850
21

11/68
10/72
10/72
6/68
12/74

*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication date shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion inde>
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.




119

ALPHABETICAL INDEX-SERIES FINDING GUIDE-Continued
Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current issue
(page numbers)

Series
number

Charts

Tables

^storical
Series
data
escriptions
issue date) issue date)

P

Personal consumption expenditures, NIA
Automobiles
Durable goods
Durable goods, except autos
Nondurable goods
Services
Total, constant dollars
Total current dollars
Total percent of GNP
Personal income - See Income.
Plant and equipment - See also Investment, capital.
Business expenditures for
Business expenditures for, Dl
Contracts and orders for
Potential gross national product
Price indexes
Consumer- See also International comparisons.
All items
All items, change in
Commodities less food
Food
Services .
Deflators, NIA
Fixed weighted, gross private product
Fixed weighted, gross private product, change in
Implicit price deflator, GNP
Differences
Percent changes
Industrial materials
Industrial materials, components
Industrial materials, Dl
Labor cost, price per unit of
Stock - See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks
500 common stocks, Dl
Wholesale
All commodities
Farm products
Foods and feeds, processed
Industrial commodities
Industrial commodities, change in
Manufactured goods
Manufactured goods, components

Series titles
(See complete titles in "Titles and Sources of
Series," following this index)

Current ssue
(page numbers)

Series

Charts

Tables

Historical
Series
escriptions
data
issue date) ssue date)

Sales

11
11
11
11
11
11,18
11
19

70
70
70
70
70
70
70
73

9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74
9/74

10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69
10/69

27,43,44
46
25,39
61

78,84
84
77
95

12/74
12/74
4/75
1/75

11/68
11/68
9/68

56,66
56
56
56
56

90,103
90
90
90
90

6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74
6/74

5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69
5/69

211
211C
210
210B
210C
*23
D23
023
*17

56
56
9

8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
8/74
10/74

10/69
10/69
10/69
4/69

63
30,41

90
90
69
69
69
79
100
97
80

10/74
8/74

4/69
11/68

*19
D19

30,40
63

79
97

10/74
10/74

5/69
5/69

750
752
751
55
55C
58
D58
D58
*17

57
57
57
31,57
57
31,57

7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74

6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69

64
30,41

91
91
91
80,91
91
80,91
102
98
80

7/74
8/74

6/69
11/68

D462
D460
D466
D464
109
243

47
47
47
47
36
12

85
85
85
85
82
70

12/74
12/74
12/74
12/74
6/74
9/74

11/68
1/68
1/68
1/68
1/73
0/69

26
853

28
62

79
96

11/74
3/75

12/74
11/68

770

58

93

4/75

10/72

770C
858

59
58

93
93

4/75
4/75

10/72
6/68

30
30,41
16

79
79
72

8/74
8/74
10/74

1/72
7/68
10/69

286A

19

73

10/74

10/69

294
D34
D442
15
816
22
282
282A

17
63
46
30
38
30
16
19

72
97
85
80
83
80
71
73

10/74
1/75
12/74
8/74
5/74
8/74
10/74
10/74

37

28

78

4/75

234
232
233
236
237
231
230
230A

*61
D61
*10
206

781
781 C
783
782
784

...

Price to unit labor cost manufacturing
Prices, selling
Manufacturing, Dl
Manufacturing and trade, Dl
Retail trade, Dl
Wholesale trade, Dl
Prime rate charged by banks
Producers' durable equipment, GPDI, NIA
Production - See Industrial production and GNP.
Production materials, buying policy
Production of business equip, to consumer goods, ratio . .
Productivity
Output per man-hour, total private economy
Output per man-hour, total private economy,
change in
Output per man-hour, total private nonfarm econ. . .
Profits
Corporate, after taxes, constant dollars
Corporate, and inventory valuation adjustment, NIA
Corporate, and inventory valuation adjustment,
percent of national income, NIA
Corporate, undistributed, plus inventory valuation
adjustment, NIA
Manufacturing, Dl
Manufacturing and trade net Dl
Per dollar of sales manufacturing
Profitability, Cl
Ratio, profits to income originating in corp. bus. . . .
Proprietors' income; NIA
Proprietors' income, percent of national income, NIA . . .
Purchased materials, percent of companies reporting
higher inventories

18
*16
286

30,40

10/69
11/68
3/69
7/68
10/69
10/69
12/74

Final sales, NIA
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Total, constant dollars
Total, current dollars
Inventories to sales, manufacturing and trade
Machinery and equipment sales and business
construction expenditures
Manufacturers' sales, total value
Manufacturing and trade sales
Manufacturing and trade sales, net, Dl
Retail sales constant dollars
Retail sales, current dollars
Diffusion index
Saving, NIA
Capital consumption allowances
Gross saving, private and government
Personal saving
Personal saving to disposable personal income
Profits, undistributed corporate, plus inventory
valuation adjustment
Surplus or deficit, government
Securities purchases, BOP
Foreign purchases of U.S. securities
U S purchases of foreign securities
Selling prices - See Prices, selling.
Sensitive financial flows, Cl
Shipments, ratio of manufacturers' unfilled orders to
State and local government - See Government.
Stock prices - See also International comparisons.
500 common stocks

15
15
18
24
62

71
71
72
76
96

10/74
10/74
10/74
8/74

27
45
24,42
46
24
24,42

8/74
1/75
12/74
12/74
4/75
3/75

9/6 8#
11/68
2/69
11/68

64

78
84
76
85
76
76
102
98

3/75

6/72

296
290
292
854

17
17
17
62

72
72
72
96

10/74
10/74
10/74
8/74

10/69
10/69
10/69
7/68

294
298

17
17

72
72

10/74
10/74

10/69
10/69

564
565

53
53

88
88

7/74
7/74

5/69
5/69

817
852

38
62

83
96

5/74
8/74

9/68

30,40
63

79
97

10/74
10/74

5/69
5/69

549
548

52
52

88
88

1/75
1/75

5/69
5/69

545
544
114
115

52
52
35
35

88
88
82
82

7/74
7/74
6/74
6/74

5/69
5/69
7/64
7/64

62
20,39
63
20
60

96
74
98
74
94

3/75
6/75
4/74
3/75
6/75

6/69
6/69
8/68#

60
60
22,43
22
60
22
60
22,41
60

94
94
75
75
94
75
94
75
94

6/75
6/75
6/75
3/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75
6/75

4/72
4/72
4/72
6/69
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72
4/72

27
29
62

78
79
96

8/74
8/74
8/74

9/68
9/68
9/68

62
29

96
79

5/74
11/74

10/72

57
57
57
31,57
57
31,57

91
91
91
80,91
91
80,91
102
98
74
99
97

7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74
7/74

6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69
6/69

7/74
2/75

6/69
8/68

270
274
273
57
851

69
410
*56
D444
59
*54
D54
D54

*19
D19

12/74

10/69
10/69
7/68
2/69

6/72

Surplus -See Government.

T

Transportation and other services, payments, BOP
Transportation and other services, receipts, BOP
Travel
Payments by U.S. travelers abroad, BOP
Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S., BOP
Treasury bill rate
Treasury bond yields

U

Unemployment
Help-wanted advertising to persons unemployed,
860
ratio
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemployment insur. . . . *5
D5
Initial claims, avg. weekly, unemployment insur., Dl
3
Layoff fate manufacturing
843
Persons unemployed, civilian labor force
Unemployment rates
Both sexes 16-19 years
846
Females, 20 years and over
845
1 5 weeks and over
*44
Insured average weekly
45
844
Males, 20 years and over
40
Married males spouse present
. . .
848
Negro and other races
*43
Total
847
White
Unfilled orders, manufacturers'
96
Durable goods industries
25
Durable goods industries, change in
852
Unfilled orders to shipments, durable goods indus. . .
United Kingdom - See International comparisons.

4/72

V

Vacancy rate in rental housing
Vendor performance

857
32

12/74

R
W
Rental income of persons, NIA
Rental income of persons, as percent of national income,
NIA
Reserve position, U.S., BOP
Reserve transactions balance, BOP
Reserves, free
Residential structures - See also Housing.
Residential structures, constant dollars, GPDI, NIA .
Residential structures, current dollars, GPDI, NIA . .
Residential structures, percent of GNP, GPDI, NIA .

S

Salaries - See Compensation.

284

16

71

10/74

10/69

284A
534
522
93

19
50
49
35

73
87
87
82

10/74
7/74
7/74
10/74

10/69
5/69

248
244
244A

18
12
19

72
70
73

9/74
9/74
9/74

11/72

10/69
10/69

Wages and salaries - See Compensation.
West Germany - See International comparisons.
Wholesale prices
All commodities
Farm products
Foods and feeds, processed
Industrial commodities
Industrial commodities, change in
Manufactured goods
Manufactured goods, components
Manufactured goods Dl
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing
Workweek of production workers, mfg., components
Workweek of production workers, manufacturing, Dl

750
752
751
55
55C
58
D58
058
*1
01
01

64
20,39
63

*Denotes series on the 1966 NBER "short list" of indicators.
#The "number" for this series title was changed since the publication dal shown. BOP means balance of payments; Cl, composite index; Dl, diffusion index;
GPDI, gross private domestic investment; and NIA, national income and product account.

120



2/75

TITLES AND SOURCES OF SERIES
Series are listed below according to the sections of this report
in which they appear. Series numbers are for identification
only and do not reflect relationships or order among series.
See "Alphabetical Index-Series Finding Guide" to find chart
and table page numbers for each series and the issues in
which historical data and series descriptions appeared.
"M" following a series title indicates monthly data; "Q"
indicates quarterly data. Data apply to the whole period
except when indicated by "EOM" (end of month) or "EOQ"
(end of quarter). Following each source is an indication (A1,
B3, etc.) of the charts and tables in which that series appears.
These charts and tables are listed in the table of contents.
"D" preceding a series number indicates the series is a
diffusion index. In section B, asterisks (*) are used to
indicate series included in the 1966 NBER "short list" of
cyclical indicators. These series are shown separately in chart
B8.

233.

Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods
except automobiles, in current dollars
(Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
'
(A3)

234.

Personal consumption expenditures, automobiles,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

236.

237. • Personal consumption expenditures, services, in
current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)
240.

Gross private domestic investment, total (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A4)

241.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)

A National Income and Product
200.

205.

210.

215.

217.

220.

Gross national product in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, B2, B8, E5)

241A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, total nonresidential as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A1, B2, B8, E1, E5)

242.

Implicit price deflator, gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A1)

243.

Per capita gross national product in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)
Per capita gross national product in 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(A1)
National income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)

222.

Personal consumption expenditures, nondurable
goods, in current dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

244.

Personal income in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Imports of goods and services; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5)

260.

Government purchases of goods and services, total
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6)

262.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A6)

262A. Federal Government purchases of goods and services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
263.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services,
in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

264.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services, national defense (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6, D3)

266.

State and local government purchases of goods
and services, total (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A6)

266A. State and local government purchases of goods and
services as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

Gross private domestic fixed investment, nonresidential structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)

267.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, producers' durable equipment (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A4)

State and local government purchases of goods and
services, in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

270.

Final sales, durable goods (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

271.

Change in business inventories, durable goods
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

273.

Final sales (series 205 minus series 246), in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A10)

274.

Final sales, nondurable goods, (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

275.

Change in business inventories, nondurable goods
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A7)

280.

Compensation of employees (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)

Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4)

244A. Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures as a percent of gross national product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
245.

253.

Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories after valuation adjustment, all
industries (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(A4, B4)

(A2)

224.

Disposable personal income in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)

245A. Change in business inventories as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)
246.

Gross private domestic investment, change in business inventories, all industries, 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

225.

Disposable personal income in 1958 dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A2)

226.

Per capita disposable personal income in current
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)

247.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, total
nonresidential, in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

227.

Per capita disposable personal income in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A2)

248.

Gross private domestic fixed investment, residential
structures, in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

230.

Personal consumption expenditures, total, in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

249.

Gross auto product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A10)

230A. Personal consumption expenditures as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A11)

250.

231.

Personal consumption expenditures, total, in 1958
dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A3, A10)

250A. Net exports of goods and services as a percent of
gross national product (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(All)

232.

Personal consumption expenditures, durable goods,
in current dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A3)

252.

280A. Compensation of employees as a percent of national
income (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A11)
282.




Exports of goods and services; national income and
product accounts (Q).—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5)

of Com(A8)

282A. Proprietors' income as a percent of national income
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(All)
284.

Net exports of goods and services; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A5)

Proprietors' income (Q).-Department
merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Rental income of persons (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)

284A. Rental income of persons as a percent of national
income (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A11)
286.

Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(A8)

286A. Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment as a percent of national income (Q).-Department
of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(All)

121

TITLES AND SOURCES OF
SERIES-Continued

15.

39.

Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30
days and over (EOM).-American Bankers Association; (Bimonthly since December 1964)
(B6)

Net interest (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A8)

Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations (Q).-Federal Trade Commission and Securities and Exchange Commission;
seasonal adjustment by Bureau
of
Economic
Analysis
(B5)

*16.

40.

288A. Net interest as a percent of national income (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(A11)

Corporate profits after taxes in current dollars
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5, B8)

Unemployment rate, married males, spouse present
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(B1)

*17.

Index of price per unit of labor cost-ratio, index
of wholesale prices of manufactured goods (unadjusted) to seasonally adjusted index of compensation of employees (sum of wages, salaries, and
supplements to wages and salaries) per unit of
output (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics; and Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B5, B8)

*41.

Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls,
establishment survey (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1, B8, E3, E4)

42.

Total number of persons engaged in nonagricultural
activities, labor force survey (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1)

*43.

Unemployment rate, total (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1, B8)

*44.

Unemployment rate, 15 weeks and over (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and
Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B1,B8)

45.

Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State
programs (M).-Department of Labor, Manpower
Administration
(B1)

46.

Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
(M).-The Conference Board
(B1)

*47.

Index of industrial production (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B2, B8, E3, E4, E5, F2)

288.

290.

Gross saving-private saving plus government surplus or deficit (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

292.

Personal saving (Q).-Department of
Bureau of Economic Analysis

294.

Undistributed corporate profits plus inventory valuation adjustment (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

18.

296.

Capital consumption allowances, corporate and
noncorporate (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(A9)

*19.

Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks (M).Standard and Poor's Corporation
(B5, B8, E3, F3)

20.

298.

Government surplus or deficit, total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories
of materials and supplies (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)

21.

Average weekly overtime hours of production
workers, manufacturing (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)

22.

Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating
incorporate business (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)

*23.

Index of industrial materials prices (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, B8, E3, E4)

Commerce,
(A9)

(A9)

B Cyclical Indicators

Corporate profits after taxes in 1958 dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)

*1.

Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing (M).—Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics
(B1, B8, E3, E4)

2.

Accession rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)

3.

Layoff rate, manufacturing (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1)

24.

*5.

Average weekly initial claims for unemployment
insurance, State programs (M).-Department of
Labor, Manpower Administration; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B1, B8, E3)

Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods
industries, nondefense (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)

25.

Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable
goods industries (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(B4)

48.

Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B1,E5)

26.

Buying policy-production materials, percent of companies reporting commitments 60 days or longer
(M).-National Association of Purchasing Management
(B4)

*52.

Personal income (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2, B8)

53.

Wage and salary income in mining, manufacturing,
and construction (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2)

*54.

Sales of retail stores in current dollars (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B2, B8, E3, E4)

*6.

8.

9.

Value of manufacturers' new orders, durable goods
industries (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of the Census
(B3, B8, E3, E4)
Index of construction contracts, total value
(M).-McGraw-Hill Information Systems Company.
(Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(B3)
Construction contracts awarded for commercial
and industrial buildings, floor space (M).-McGrawHill Information Systems Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (Used
by permission. This series may not be reproduced
without written permission from the source.) (B3)

28.

New private housing units started, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3)

*29.

Index of new private housing units authorized by
local building permits (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B3, B8)

55.
*31.

Change in book value of manufacturing and trade
inventories, total (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the
Census
(B4, B8)

Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5, D4)

*56.

Vendor performance, percent of companies reporting
slower deliveries (M).—Purchasing Management
Association of Chicago
(B4)

Manufacturing and trade sales (M).-Department ol
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureai
of the Census
(B2, B8,

57.

Final sales (series 200 minus series 245) (Q).-Depart
ment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2

58.

Index of wholesale prices, manufactured good
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statis
tics
(B5, D4, E3, E4

59.

Sales of retail stores, 1967 dollars (M).-Departmen
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B2

*61.

Business expenditures for new plant and equipmem
total (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau c
Economic Analysis
(B3, B8, Cl, C2

*62.

Index of labor cost per unit of output, tot.
manufacturing-ratio, index of compensation c
employees in manufacturing (the sum of wages an
salaries and supplements to wages and salaries) t
index of industrial production, manufacturir
(M).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Ec<
nomic Analysis, and the Board of Governors of tr
Federal Reserve System
(85, Bi

32.
*10.

11.

Contracts and orders for plant and equipment
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census, and McGraw-Hill Information Systems
Company; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of the
Census and Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B3, B8)
Newly approved capital appropriations, 1,000 manufacturing corporations (Q).-The Conference Board.
(Used by permission. This series may not be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(B3, E3)

*12.

Index of net business formation (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. (B3, B8)

13.

Number of new business incorporations (M).-Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(B3)

14.

122

33.

Current liabilities of business failures (M).-Dun
and Bradstreet, Inc.
(B6)




Net change in mortgage debt held by financial
institutions and life insurance companies (M).Institute of Life Insurance; Federal National Mortgage Association; Department of Housing and Urban
Development,
Government National Mortgage
Association; National Association of Mutual Savings
Banks; U.S. Savings and Loan League; and Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)

34.

Net cash flow, corporate, in current dollars (Q).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B5)

35.

Net cash flow, corporate, in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)

37.

Percent of companies reporting higher inventories of
purchased materials (M).-National Association of
Purchasing Management; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B4)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF
SERIES-Continued

118.

Secondary market yields on FHA mortgages
(M).-Department of Housing and Urban Development, Federal Housing Administration
(B6)

119.

Federal funds rate (M).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)

*200.

Gross national product in current dollars (Q). See in
section A.

*205.

Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in
section A.

245.

Change in business inventories (GNP component)
(Q). See in section A.

810.

Twelve leading indicators-reverse trend adjusted
composite index (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10, 12, 16,
17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

811.

Twelve leading indicators-composite index prior to
reverse trend adjustment (includes series 1, 5, 6, 10,
12, 16, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis

813.

Manufacturers' machinery and equipment sales and
business construction expenditures (industrial and
commercial construction put in place)
(M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (B3)

Marginal employment adjustments-leading composite index (includes series 1, 2, 3, and 5) (M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)

814.

Capital investment commitments-leading composite
index (includes series 6, 10, 12, and 29)
(M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)

Manufacturing and trade inventories, total book value
(EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of the Census
(B4, B8)

815.

Commercial and industrial loans outstanding, weekly
reporting large commercial banks (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis (B6, B8)

Inventory investment and purchasing-leading composite index (includes series 23, 25, 31, and 37)
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

816.

85.

Change in U.S. money supply (demand deposits plus
currency) [M1] (M).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)

817.

93.

Free reserves (member bank excess reserves minus
borrowings) (M).-Board of Governors of the Federal
Reserve System
(B6)

96.

Manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
the Census
(B3)

97.

Backlog of capital appropriations, manufacturing
(EOQ).-The Conference Board. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(B3)

63.

Index of unit labor cost, total private economy
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(B5)

65.

Manufacturers' inventories of finished goods, book
value, all manufacturing industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(B4)

66.

Consumer installment debt (EOM).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. FRS seasonally
adjusted net change added to seasonally adjusted
figure for previous month to obtain current figure
(B6)

*67.

Bank rates on short-term business loans, 35 cities
(Q).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6, B8)

68.

Labor cost (current dollars) per unit of gross product
(1958 dollars), nonfinancial corporations-ratio of
current-dollar compensation of employees to gross
corporate product in 1958 dollars (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B5)

69.

*71.

*72.

102.

103.

109.

Average prime rate charged by banks (M).-Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)

Profitability-leading composite index (includes series
16, 17, and 19) (M).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)
Sensitive financial flows-leading composite index
(includes series 33, 85, 112, and 113) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

820.

Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7, E5)

825.

Five coincident indicators-deflated composite index
(includes series 41, 43, 47, 52D, and 56D)
(M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(B7)

830.

Six lagging indicators-composite index (includes
series 44, 61, 62, 67, 71, 72) (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B7)

C Anticipations and Intentions
61.

Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers
in credit markets (Q).-Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System
(B6)

410.

112.

Net change in bank loans to businesses (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; seasonal
adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(B6)

412.

Manufacturers' inventories, total book value
(EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(CD

414.

Percent of total book value of inventories held by
manufacturers classifying their holdings as high, less
percent classifying holdings as low (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census

Net change in consumer installment debt (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (B6, B8)

114.

Discount rate on new issues of 91-day Treasury bills
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)

115.

Yield on long-term Treasury bonds (M).-Treasury
Department
(B6)

116.

Yield on new issues of high-grade corporate bonds
(M).-First National City Bank of New York and
Treasury Department
(B6)

117.

Yield on municipal bonds, 20-bond average (M).-The
Bond Buyer
(B6)




D440. New orders, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
D442. Net profits, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
D444. Net sales, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
D446. Number of employees, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
D450. Level of inventories, manufacturing and trade
(Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission.
This series may not be reproduced without written
permission from the source.)
(C2)
D460. Selling prices, manufacturing and trade (Q).-Dun and
Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may
not be reproduced without written permission from
the source.)
(C2)
D462. Selling prices, manufacturing (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
D464. Selling prices, wholesale trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet, Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not
be reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)
D466. Selling prices, retail trade (Q).-Dun and Bradstreet,
Inc. (Used by permission. This series may not be
reproduced without written permission from the
source.)
(C2)

D Other Key Indicators
55.

Index of wholesale prices, industrial commodities
(M). See in section B.

58.

Index of wholesale prices, manufactured goods (M).
See in section B.

211.

Fixed weighted price index, gross private product
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D4)

250.

Balance on goods and services; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

252.

Exports of goods and services, excluding transfers
under military grants; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

253.

Imports of goods and services; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

264.

Federal Government purchases of goods and services,
national defense (Q). See in section A.

500.

Merchandise trade balance (Series 502 minus series
512) (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D1)

502.

Exports, excluding military aid shipments, total
(M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(DD

Business expenditures for new plant and equipment,
all industries (Q). See in section B.

110.

*113.

Index of consumer sentiment (Q).-University of
Michigan, Survey Research Center
(CD

(B7)

Change in U.S. money supply plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's [M2]
(M).-Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve
System
(B6)
Change in U.S. money supply, plus time deposits at
commercial banks other than large CD's, plus deposits at nonbank thrift institutions [M3] (M).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
(B6)

435.

Manufacturers' sales, total value (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(C1)

(CD
416.

Percent of total gross capital assets held by companies classifying their existing capacity as inadequate for prospective operations over the next 12
months, less percent classifying existing capacity as
excessive (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(CD

123

TITLES AND SOURCES OF
SERIES-Continued

506.

Manufacturers' new orders for export, durable goods
except motor vehicles and parts (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D1)

508.

Index of export orders for nonelectrical machinery
(M).-McGraw-Hill Publications Company, Economics
Department
(D1)

512.

515.

517.

519.

521.

522.

530.

532.

534.

546.

Military sales to foreigners; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

748.

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-first year average (mean) changes
(Q).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D5)

547.

U.S. military expenditures abroad; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

749.

Negotiated wage and benefit decisions, all industries-average (mean) changes over life of contract
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

548.

Receipts from transportation and other services; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

750.

Index of wholesale prices, all commodities (M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D4)

549.

Payments for transportation and other services; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

751.

Index of wholesale prices, processed foods and feeds
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)

General imports, total (M).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D 1)

560.

Foreign direct investments in the U.S.; U.S. balance
of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau
of Economic Analysis
(D2)

752.

Index of wholesale prices, farm products
(M).Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics(D4)

Balance on goods, services and remittances; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

561.

U.S. direct investments abroad; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

770.

Index of output per man-hour, total private economy
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D5)

Balance on current account; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

564.

Foreign purchases of U.S. securities; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

781.

Index of consumer prices, all items (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4, F1)

Balance on current account and long term capital;
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

565.

U.S. purchases of foreign securities; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

782.

Index of consumer prices, food (M).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)

Net liquidity balance; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

783.
570.

Govern.Tient grants and capital transactions, net; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

Index of consumer prices, commodities less food
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D4)

Official reserve transactions balance; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

575.

Banking and other capital transactions, net; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

784.

Index of consumer prices, services (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D4)

Liquid liabilities (excluding military grants) to all
foreigners, total outstanding; U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

600.

Federal Government surplus or deficit; national
income and product accounts (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

841.

Total civilian labor force, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(06)

601.

Federal Government receipts; national income and
product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

842.

Total civilian employment, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)

843.

Number of persons unemployed, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)

844.

Unemployment rate, males 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)

Liquid and certain nonliquid liabilities (excluding
military grants) to foreign official agencies, total
outstanding; U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
U.S. official reserve (assets) position, excluding
military grants; U.S. balance of payments (EOQ).Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)

602.

Federal Government expenditures; national income
and product accounts (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

616.

Defense Department obligations incurred, total,
excluding military assistance (M).-Department of
Defense, Fiscal Analysis Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

621.

Defense Department obligations incurred, procurement (M).-Department of Defense, Fiscal Analysis
Division; seasonal adjustment by Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D3)

536.

Merchandise exports, adjusted, excluding military
grants; U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

537.

Merchandise imports, adjusted, excluding military;
U.S. balance of payments (Q).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

625.

845.

Unemployment rate, females 20 years and over, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)

U.S. investment income, military sales, and other
services exports, excluding military grants; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).—Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

Military prime contract awards to U.S. business firms
and institutions (M).-Department of Defense, Directorate for Statistical Services; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D3)

647.

New orders, defense products industries
(M).Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census (D3)

846.

648.

New orders, defense products (M).-Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D3)

Unemployment rate, both sexes 16-19 years of age,
labor force survey (M).-Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of
Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(D6)

847.

740.

Index of average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime
(in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonally (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

Unemployment rate, white, labor force survey
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(D6)

848.

741.

Index of real average hourly earnings of production
workers, private nonfarm economy-adjusted for
overtime
(in manufacturing only), interindustry
employment shifts, and seasonality (M).-Department
of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

Unemployment rate, Negro and other races, labor
force survey (M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of
Labor Statistics, and Department of Commerce,
Bureau of the Census
(D6)

858.

Index of output per man-hour, total private nonfarm
(Q).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D5)

859.

Real spendable average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers (with 3 dependents)
on private nonagricultural payrolls, 1967 dollars
(M).-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics
(D5)

540.

541.

542.

543.

544.

545.

124

Foreigners' investment income, military expenditures
and other services imports; U.S. balance of payments
(Q).—Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis
(D2)
Income on U.S. investments abroad; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)
Income on foreign investments in the U.S.; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)
Receipts from foreign travelers in the U.S.; U.S.
balance of payments (Q).-Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis
(D2)

745.

Payments by U.S. travelers abroad; U.S. balance of
payments (Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis
(D2)

746.




Index of average hourly compensation, all employees,
private nonfarm economy (Q).-Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)
Index of real average hourly compensation, all
employees, private nonfarm economy (UK-Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(D5)

TITLES AND SOURCES OF
SERIES-Continued

857.

Vacancy rate in rental housing-unoccupied rental
housing units as a percent of total rental housing
(Q).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the
Census
(E2)

E Analytical Measures

860.

Ratio, help-wanted advertising in newspapers (series
46) to total number of persons unemployed
(M).-The Conference Board, and Department of
Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
(E2)

47.

Index of industrial production (M). See in section B.

48.

Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments (M). See
in section B.

200.

GIMP in current dollars (Q). See in section A.

205.

Gross national product in 1958 dollars (Q). See in
section A.

206.

Potential level of gross national product in 1958
dollars (Q).-Council of Economic Advisers
(E1)

207.

Gap-the potential GNP (series 206) less the actual
GNP
(series 205)
(Q).-Council of Economic
Advisers
(E1)

820.

850.

851.

852.

853.

854.

Five coincident indicators-composite index (includes
series 41, 43, 47, 52, and 56) (M). See in section B.
Ratio, output to capacity, manufacturing (Q).-Board
of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of Commerce, and McGraw-Hill Publications
Company, Economics Department
(E2)
Ratio, inventories (series 71) to sales (series 56),
manufacturing and trade, total (EOM).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(E2)

Ratio, personal saving to disposable personal income
(series 292 divided by series 224) (Q).-Department
of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
(E2)




France, index of industrial production (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(F2)

127.

Italy, index of industrial production (M).-lnstituto
Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(F2)

128.

Japan, index of industrial production (M).-Ministry
of International Trade and Industry (Tokyo)
(F2)

132.

United Kingdom, index of consumer prices
Ministry of Labour (London)

133.

Canada, index of consumer prices (M).-Dominion
Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F1)

135.

West Germany, index of consumer prices
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)

136.

France, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstitut
National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques
(Paris)
(F1)

137.

Italy, index of consumer prices (M).-lnstituto Centrale di Statistica (Rome)
(F1)

138.

Japan, index of consumer prices (M).-Office of the
Prime Minister (Tokyo)
(F1)

United States, index of stock prices, 500 common
stocks (M). See in section B.

142.

United Kingdom, index of stock prices (M).-The
Financial Times (London)
(F3)

United States, index of industrial production
See in section B.

143.

Canada, index of stock prices (M).-Dominion Bureau
of Statistics (Ottawa)
(F3)

145.

West Germany, index of stock
Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden)

146.

France, index of stock prices (M).-lnstitut National
de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (Paris)

The "D" preceding a number indicates a diffusion index.
Diffusion indexes and corresponding aggregate series bear the
same number and are obtained from the same sources. See
section B for titles and sources of D1, D5, D6, D11, D19,
D23, D41, D47, D54, D58, D61, and section C for D440,
D442, D444, D446, D450, D460, D462, D464, and D466.
Sources for other diffusion indexes are as follows:
D34.

Profits, manufacturing, FNCB (Q).-First National
City Bank of New York; seasonal adjustment by
Bureau of Economic Analysis and National Bureau of
Economic Research, Inc.
(E3)

F International Comparisons
19.

47.

121.

Ratio, manufacturers' unfilled orders (series 96) to
shipments, durable goods industries (EOM).-Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
(E2)
Ratio, production of business equipment to production of consumer goods (M).-Board of Governors of
the Federal Reserve System. (Based on components of the Federal Reserve index of industrial
production.)
(E2)

126.

United Kingdom, index of industrial
(M).-CentraI Statistical Office (London)

123.

Canada, index of industrial production
Dominion Bureau of Statistics (Ottawa)

125.

(M).(F1)

(M).

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, European Countries, index of industrial
production (M).-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (Paris)
(F2)

122.

(M).(F1)

production
(F2)
(M).—
(F2)

West Germany, index of industrial production
(M).-Statistisches Bundesamt (Wiesbaden); seasonal
adjustment by OECD
(F2)

prices

(M).(F3)

(F3)

147.

Italy, index of stock prices (M).-Institute Centrale di
Statistica (Rome)
(F3)

148.

Japan, index of stock prices (M).-Tokyo Stock
Exchange(Tokyo)
(F3)

781.

United States, index of consumer prices (M). See in
section D.

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